Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 05/25/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS RENO NV
1001 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015
.UPDATE...
FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO INCREASE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THIS EVENING ACROSS ALPINE, MONO AND
WESTERN MINERAL COUNTIES.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT EXPECT GENERALLY 0.25 TO
0.75 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE SIERRA WITH UP TO 2 INCHES OF WET
SNOW ON MOUNTAIN ROADS ABOVE 9,000 FEET. EXPECT MORE LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS UP TO 0.50 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN NV. THIS PRECIPITATION
SHOULD MOSTLY BE A BENEFICIAL RAIN BUT LOCATIONS RECEIVING HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL SEE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. SNOW ABOVE 9,000 FEET MAY PRODUCE SLICK ROADS
OVER HIGH PASSES INCLUDING MOUNT ROSE SUMMIT AND SONORA AND TIOGA
PASSES.
THE NORTH-TO-SOUTH MOVING SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE AREA TODAY EXITS
INTO SOUTHERN CA/NV AFTER MIDNIGHT, BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL ACROSS
THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NV FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. JCM
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY FOR EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE TODAY WILL
WARM TO AROUND AVERAGE FOR SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY MONDAY.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY FOR EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE
TODAY WILL WARM TO AROUND AVERAGE FOR SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY
MONDAY.
SHORT TERM...
RAISED POP TODAY, ESPECIALLY FOR LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THE EASTERN SIERRA AND FOR PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN NEVADA. I ALSO
REDUCED OR REMOVED LATE NIGHT/MORNING SHOWER COVERAGE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHTS.
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE ARE ONGOING EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH HIGH HUMIDITIES AND WIDESPREAD STRATUS OR STRATOCUMULUS
DECKS PER SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER CAN
BE SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AS A CIRCULATION DROPPING
SOUTH ALONG THE OREGON COAST. THIS LOW WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS,
SHOWERS ARE ALREADY BREAKING OUT IN THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS EAST OF
CHICO AND REDDING. THE 08Z HRRR INDICATES SHOWERS PUSHING OVER THE
CREST BETWEEN SUSANVILLE AND LAKE TAHOE BY MID MORNING. THIS
MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE SHOWERS ALREADY DEVELOPING AND THE INCOMING
UPPER LOW.
THIS AFTERNOON, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE PROGGED TO PUSH OUT INTO
NEVADA AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS THROUGH THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY. WITH
THIS IN MIND, I HAVE RAISED POP TO LIKELY FOR THE RENO-TAHOE AREA
WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR MANY OTHER AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-80.
THIS EVENING, THE GFS AND NAM SHOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
SLIDING TO SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AS A DEFORMATION AXIS TO THE EAST
OF THE LOW MOVES OVER THAT AREA. AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THE CHANCES REMAIN LOW WITH THE CLOUDY,
MOIST CONDITIONS LIMITING CAPE. HOWEVER, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE MOIST AND AT LEAST SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.
TONIGHT, AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR FOG AS CLOUD COVER DECREASES BEHIND TODAY`S LOW AND
MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH. HOWEVER, IT IS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN AND WILL
DEPEND ON WHETHER THE LOWER LEVEL STRATUS DECK CAN BREAK UP. FOR
NOW, I JUST THREW IN PATCHY FOG AS A HEADS UP.
SUNDAY, THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AS
SOME WARMING ALOFT/SLIGHT RIDGING MOVES IN BEHIND TODAY`S UPPER
LOW. HOWEVER, MORE INSOLATION AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
STILL ALLOW FOR A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS (MAINLY NEAR THE
SIERRA). ON MONDAY, A GLANCING BLOW FROM AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING INCREASED
AFTERNOON WESTERLY WINDS TO THE REGION. ELEVATED MOISTURE REMAINS
IN THE AREA SO CONVERGENCE AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WEST FLOW
ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES COULD BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SNYDER
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LIGHT WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE, BUT
PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM TO NEAR
AVERAGE FOR LATE MAY.
FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, RIDGING WILL BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST IN
THE WAKE OF THE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM WITH 80S
LIKELY IN WESTERN NV AND 70S IN THE SIERRA VALLEYS. IN ADDITION,
WARMING TEMPS ALOFT WITH THE RIDGE AND SLOW SURFACE DRYING SHOULD
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY. CONTINUED A THREAT OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW, ALTHOUGH
KEPT THEM OUT OF THE TAHOE BASIN WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS AND
INCREASING STABILIZATION. WALLMANN
AVIATION...
SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND NORTHWEST NEVADA. LCL MVFR CONDS CONTINUE IN -SHRA WITH CIGS
2-3000 FEET, BUT MOST 4-5000 FEET. EXPECT AND INCREASE IN SHOWERS
WITH ISOLD TSRA 15-21Z WITH AN INCOMING IMPULSE. GREATEST IMPACT
WILL BE AROUND RENO-TAHOE AREAS WITH MVFR CIGS TO 2-3000 FEET,
ALTHOUGH KMMH WILL ALSO BE THREATENED LATER. GS ALSO POSSIBLE IN
ANY TSRA.
AFTER 00Z, BEHIND THE IMPULSE, MORE STABILIZATION WILL OCCUR WITH
POSSIBLE CLEARING. AT THIS POINT, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING WILL OCCUR WITH ONLY ISOLD -SHRA POSSIBLE AFTER 03Z. IF
SKIES CLEAR ENOUGH, EXPECT FG TO FORM IN MANY VALLEYS FROM THE
RECENT RAIN. KTRK/MARTIS VALLEY MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED, BUT
KRNO/KLOL/KTVL MAY ALSO SEE FG WITH VIS NEAR OR BLO 1/4SM.
POTENTIAL FG FOR KTRK 60 PCT WITH OTHER AREAS 20-30 PCT. WALLMANN
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
349 AM PDT Sat May 23 2015
.Synopsis...
Warmer temperatures with showers and thunderstorms expected this
weekend into next week, especially over mountains.
&&
.Discussion (Today through Tuesday)...
Broad upper low over desert SW this morning with a fairly
significant wave over the Pac NW moving southward. Leading edge
instability has triggered some showers over the west slopes of
Sierra northward of Hwy 20/I-80. The HRRR picked up on this area
of precipitation pretty well. The HRRR continues the
shower/thunderstorm development over the west slopes this
morning into the afternoon. The model also develops activity over
the Coastal Range from Glenn county down into western Yolo county
late this morning and afternoon.
In the meantime, marine stratus has developed over the Sacramento
region again this morning. As long as these troughs impact the
west coast, we keep the tightened onshore surface pressure
gradient and the threat of the stratus intrusion. Monday looks
like the next chance for some valley stratus.
The mountains will continue to see showery activity through
Tuesday, although activity may not be quite as widespread as
today. Seasonably cool temperatures will continue today with a
slow and gradual warming trend expected into early next week.
JClapp
&&
.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)
Upper ridge forecast to return during the second half of next
week as the trough finally shifts east into the Rockies. This will
result in temperatures returning to around normal for late May
along with a reduction in mountain showers and thunderstorms.
Another trough may approach the west coast next weekend.
&&
.Aviation...
General VFR conditions expected next 24 hours except areas of
MVFR with local IFR conditions over the mountains in the vicinity
showers and isolated thunderstorms. Areas of MVFR ceilings in the
Sacramento area until about 16Z-17Z. Local southwesterly wind
gusts 10-20 kts.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
326 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY FOR EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE
TODAY WILL WARM TO AROUND AVERAGE FOR SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY
MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
RAISED POP TODAY, ESPECIALLY FOR LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THE EASTERN SIERRA AND FOR PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN NEVADA. I ALSO
REDUCED OR REMOVED LATE NIGHT/MORNING SHOWER COVERAGE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHTS.
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE ARE ONGOING EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH HIGH HUMIDITIES AND WIDESPREAD STRATUS OR STRATOCUMULUS
DECKS PER SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER CAN
BE SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AS A CIRCULATION DROPPING
SOUTH ALONG THE OREGON COAST. THIS LOW WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS,
SHOWERS ARE ALREADY BREAKING OUT IN THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS EAST OF
CHICO AND REDDING. THE 08Z HRRR INDICATES SHOWERS PUSHING OVER THE
CREST BETWEEN SUSANVILLE AND LAKE TAHOE BY MID MORNING. THIS
MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE SHOWERS ALREADY DEVELOPING AND THE INCOMING
UPPER LOW.
THIS AFTERNOON, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE PROGGED TO PUSH OUT INTO
NEVADA AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS THROUGH THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY. WITH
THIS IN MIND, I HAVE RAISED POP TO LIKELY FOR THE RENO-TAHOE AREA
WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR MANY OTHER AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-80.
THIS EVENING, THE GFS AND NAM SHOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
SLIDING TO SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AS A DEFORMATION AXIS TO THE EAST
OF THE LOW MOVES OVER THAT AREA. AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THE CHANCES REMAIN LOW WITH THE CLOUDY,
MOIST CONDITIONS LIMITING CAPE. HOWEVER, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE MOIST AND AT LEAST SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.
TONIGHT, AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR FOG AS CLOUD COVER DECREASES BEHIND TODAY`S LOW AND
MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH. HOWEVER, IT IS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN AND WILL
DEPEND ON WHETHER THE LOWER LEVEL STRATUS DECK CAN BREAK UP. FOR
NOW, I JUST THREW IN PATCHY FOG AS A HEADS UP.
SUNDAY, THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AS
SOME WARMING ALOFT/SLIGHT RIDGING MOVES IN BEHIND TODAY`S UPPER
LOW. HOWEVER, MORE INSOLATION AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
STILL ALLOW FOR A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS (MAINLY NEAR THE
SIERRA). ON MONDAY, A GLANCING BLOW FROM AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING INCREASED
AFTERNOON WESTERLY WINDS TO THE REGION. ELEVATED MOISTURE REMAINS
IN THE AREA SO CONVERGENCE AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WEST FLOW
ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES COULD BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SNYDER
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LIGHT WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE, BUT
PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM TO NEAR
AVERAGE FOR LATE MAY.
FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, RIDGING WILL BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST IN
THE WAKE OF THE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM WITH 80S
LIKELY IN WESTERN NV AND 70S IN THE SIERRA VALLEYS. IN ADDITION,
WARMING TEMPS ALOFT WITH THE RIDGE AND SLOW SURFACE DRYING SHOULD
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY. CONTINUED A THREAT OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW, ALTHOUGH
KEPT THEM OUT OF THE TAHOE BASIN WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS AND
INCREASING STABILIZATION. WALLMANN
&&
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND NORTHWEST NEVADA. LCL MVFR CONDS CONTINUE IN -SHRA WITH CIGS
2-3000 FEET, BUT MOST 4-5000 FEET. EXPECT AND INCREASE IN SHOWERS
WITH ISOLD TSRA 15-21Z WITH AN INCOMING IMPULSE. GREATEST IMPACT
WILL BE AROUND RENO-TAHOE AREAS WITH MVFR CIGS TO 2-3000 FEET,
ALTHOUGH KMMH WILL ALSO BE THREATENED LATER. GS ALSO POSSIBLE IN
ANY TSRA.
AFTER 00Z, BEHIND THE IMPULSE, MORE STABILIZATION WILL OCCUR WITH
POSSIBLE CLEARING. AT THIS POINT, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING WILL OCCUR WITH ONLY ISOLD -SHRA POSSIBLE AFTER 03Z. IF
SKIES CLEAR ENOUGH, EXPECT FG TO FORM IN MANY VALLEYS FROM THE
RECENT RAIN. KTRK/MARTIS VALLEY MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED, BUT
KRNO/KLOL/KTVL MAY ALSO SEE FG WITH VIS NEAR OR BLO 1/4SM.
POTENTIAL FG FOR KTRK 60 PCT WITH OTHER AREAS 20-30 PCT. WALLMANN
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
321 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015
AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING OVER THE NORTHEAST
COLORADO PLAINS FOR THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. ANOTHER STORM IS
PRESENTLY MOVING OUT OF DOUGLAS COUNTY AND TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD.
STORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING FAST ENOUGH THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN HELD TO LESS THAN THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH. NO
FLOODING PROBLEMS HAVE BEEN REPORTED YET...BUT WITH SOME MORE
THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXPECTED...WILL LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUE. THE LINEAR SHEAR PROFILE IS OVERWHELMING THE BUOYANCY OF
THE AIRMASS...SO TORNADIC STORMS HAVE NOT DEVELOPED. WILL CLEAR
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE TORNADO WATCH WITH ISSUANCE OF THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. REST OF WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SINCE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ONGOING.
AFTER THE EVENING CONVECTION DIES OFF...THE MOIST AIRMASS AND WEAK
FLOW WILL ALLOW STRATUS AND FOG TO RE-DEVELOP...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE
SAW THIS MORNING. FOR SUNDAY...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW WILL
STILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. THIS MEANS ANOTHER
DAY OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO LIKELY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER
LOW SLOWLY MEANDERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE SHOWERS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUING IN THE MOUNTAINS. ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS AND BECOMES AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REDEVELOP ON THE PLAINS BY AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE TROUGH WRAPS INTO COLORADO FROM THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S ON THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION.
THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AROUND...COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST NUMEROUS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S ON THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING.
COOLER UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD RETURN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS UPSLOPE
FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THE GFS SHOWS
QUITE A BIT OF QPF FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EASTWARD INTO THE
URBAN CORRIDOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHILE THE ECMWF
SHOWS VERY LITTLE. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO COLORADO FROM THE WEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015
INITIAL WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS MOVED PAST THE AIRPORT...BUT NEW
CELLS ARE NOW MOVING OUT OF DOUGLAS COUNTY. THE NEXT THUNDERSTORM
HAS A BIT MORE OF A NORTHEAST TRACK...AND MAY MISS KDEN. WILL
STILL MENTION A FEW MORE HOURS OF THUNDER IN THE DENVER AREA
AIRPORTS. OVERNIGHT...A REPEAT OF THIS MORING IS POSSIBLE WITH FOG
AND STRATUS DEVELOPING. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE COOLEST PART OF THE WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL BE OVER DENVER...LEADING TO THE MOST UNSETTLED
WEATHER.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING ALONG NICELY AND ONLY
PRODUCING ABOUT ONE-THIRD TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS OVER THE
DENVER METRO AREA DURING THE EVENING...BUT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
AMOUNTS. THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS CONTINUES...SO WILL LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUE.
THE CACHE LA POUDRE AND SOUTH PLATTE RIVERS REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE ACROSS WELD COUNTY WITH MINOR IMPACTS. THESE FLOOD WARNINGS
WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE DAYS AS THE RIVERS WILL BE SLOW
TO RECEDE.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ042-044>046-
048>051.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...DANKERS
HYDROLOGY...DANKERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
345 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN UTAH WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD
THRU TONIGHT. QG FIELDS SHOW MID LVL ASCENT THRU THE DAY INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC LOW PRES WILL EXTEND FM
THE CNTRL MTNS INTO SERN CO WITH MAINLY SELY LOW LVL FLOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS. WITH SELY LOW LVL FLOW A DENVER CYCLONE WILL PROBABLY DVLP
BY EARLY AFTN WITH A CONVERGENCE ZN OVER DENVER OR JUST TO THE EAST.
SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SHOWER AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. AS FAR AS SVR POTENTIAL IT APPEARS HIGHS OVER NERN
CO MAY STAY MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH CAPES AROUND
1000 J/KG EXCEPT POSSIBLY OVER LINCOLN COUNTY WHERE THEY MAY REACH
AROUND 1500 J/KG. THERE WILL BE DECENT SHEAR SO EXPECT A FEW SVR
STORMS OVER THE PLAINS WITH MARGINAL LARGE HAIL AND A FEW
TORNADOES DUE TO LOW LCLS. MEANWHILE THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE PLAINS SO WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
DUE TO SATURATED SOILS AS A FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE A FEW INCHES
OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR.
FOR TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER WESTERN
COLORADO HOWEVER THE MID LVL ASCENT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING WITH PCPN CHANCES DECREASING BY MIDNIGHT FM SW TO
NE. MAY SEE SOME FOG DVLP AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015
M.O.T.S...MUCH OF THE SAME BEST DESCRIBES THE DAILY WEATHER CYCLE
ANTICIPATED DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. LET`S START WITH THE LARGE
SCALE FLOW PATTERN. MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGHS REPEATEDLY FORMING
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AND A CONTINUOUS FEED OF SUBTROPICAL
AIR UP INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OR ONSHORE IN SRN CALIFORNIA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FIRST OF THESE TROUGHS IS FORECAST TO
TRACK OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKY MTN REGION ON SUNDAY BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES...SCATTERED SHOWERS...ISOLATED T-STORMS AND LIGHTER
WINDS TO THE FORECAST AREA. PROGGED 6-HR PRECIP AMOUNTS ON THE
ORDER OF 1/10TH TO 3/10TH INCH BY EVENING. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
NOT AS GREAT AS THE DAY BEFORE DUE TO WEAKER FLOW AND COOLER
TEMPS. SO SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE MUCH LOWER. MODELS LIFT THIS
TROUGH NEWRD OVER THE NRN GREAT PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING WHICH
POSITIONS NERN COLORADO IN A SOMEWHAT DRIER AND WARMER NWLY FLOW
TO START THE DAY. BUT BY AFTERNOON MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RETURN
WITH A PASSING MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE...RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS MAINLY OVER AND NEAR
THE MTNS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HRS. ON TUESDAY MODELS SHOW
EVEN DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE RIDGE.
STILL STG DAYTIME HEATING AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE SHOULD BE ADEQUATE
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/T-STORM IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY AND ISOLATED T-STORMS ON THE NEARBY PLAINS. NOTHING SEVERE
AND RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
BY WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE GREAT
BASIN. AS IT DOES SO...STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF IT PUMPS
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR UP FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST POTENTIALLY
RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SOAKING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HRS. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE THAN
THE DAY BEFORE AND WITH MEAN LAYER SPECIFIC HUMIDITY ON THE
INCREASE...ODDS INCREASE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SWRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND...MODELS DIFFER SOME ON WHEN THE WESTERN
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE DEGREE OF IMPACT IT`LL HAVE ON THE
FORECAST AREA. MOST MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT SLIPPING INTO NERN
COLORADO ERLY ON THURSDAY AND A FAIRLY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE
PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON GOING HOG WILD
WITH PRECIP THURSDAY BUT WILL STILL HOLD ONTO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS FOR MOST AREAS...TOGETHER WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS. FRIDAY COULD POSSIBLY BE WETTER AND COOLER YET IF THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE CORRECT...THE PRODUCT OF DEEP MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND A CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER E-CNTRL COLORADO.
M.O.T.S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015
A WK DENVER CYCLONE WAS OVER DENVER WHICH HAS KEPT THE BRUNT OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TO THE NORTH OF DIA. THE HRRR AND RAP STILL SHOW
THAT SOME BRIEF DENSE FOG MAY DVLP FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE 10Z-14Z
TIME PERIOD SO WILL KEEP IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR LIFR. OTHERWISE
CEILINGS/VSBY WILL BE MVFR THRU 16Z. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY 18Z WITH ACTIVITY GRADUALLY ENDING BY
23Z IF HRRR/RAP CAN BE BELIEVED. MAY SEE SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS WITH VSBY DOWN TO 3-5 MILES IN THE STRONGER STORMS. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN MORE ENE BY
EARLY AFTN.
FOR TONIGHT THE SHOWER/TSTM THREAT SHOULD END BY 02Z WITH WINDS
BRIEFLY NWLY FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT DRAINAGE BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015
MAY SEE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS
THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING DUE TO SATURATED SOILS. IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AMOUNTS
WILL AVERAGE FROM ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS
UP TO AN INCH IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
THE CACHE LA POUDRE AND SOUTH PLATTE RIVERS REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
IN WELD COUNTY AND ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF MORGAN COUNTY...AND
WILL STAY THAT WAY FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
COZ042-044>046-048>051.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...RPK
HYDROLOGY...RPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
950 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015
.DISCUSSION...
BASIC WX PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED AS A STRONG HI PRES RIDGE OVER
THE ERN SEABOARD REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE. LATEST DATA FROM THE
USAF 915HZ PROFILER SHOWS SOLID ERLY FLOW THRU 10KFT THAT HAS
FRESHENED FROM 10-15KTS AROUND SUNSET TO 15-20KTS BY LATE EVNG.
EVENING RAOBS SHOW PWATS HAVE INCREASED TO ARND 1.7" AT KXMR/KTBW
MOST OF WHICH IS IN THE H100-H70 LYR WHILE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS
MEAN RH VALUES THRU THE LYR BTWN 70-85PCT. RADAR SHOWS PERSISTENT
SHRA BANDS NOTED OVER THE OPEN ATLC N OF CAPE CANAVERAL (ASSOCD WITH
THE REMNANTS OF A DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY) AND S OF JUPITER INLET
(ASSOCD WITH WAKE VORTICITIES DOWNWIND OF THE NRN BAHAMAS).
WX SETUP IS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...ONLY WITH SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LVLS. THE DEEP ERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
LCL POCKETS OF ENHANCED MOISTURE TOWARD THE COAST WHERE FRICTIONAL
CONVERGENCE WILL ALLOW ISOLD SHRAS TO FORM ALONG THE COAST...WHILE
ITS INCREASING STRENGTH COULD PUSH THEM INTO THE INTERIOR COUNTIES
BEFORE THEY RAIN THEMSELVES OUT. AS SUCH...WILL ADD <20PCT POPS TO
THE INTERIOR COUNTIES WITH THE EVNG UPDATE...WORDING FOR SLGT CHC AS
OPPOSED TO ISOLD FOR THE COAST. NO OTHER CHANGES NECESSARY.
&&
.AVIATION...THRU 25/18Z
THRU 25/06Z...E DIMINISHING TO 4-8KTS...CONTG THRU 25/12Z. BTWN
25/12Z-25/15Z...E/SE INCREASING TO 8-12KTS. AFT 25/15Z...E/SE
INCREASING TO 12-16KTS WITH SFC G21-24KTS.
VSBYS/WX/CIGS: THRU 25/12...ISOLD MVFR/BRIEF IFR SHRAS COASTAL
SITES. BTWN 25/12Z-25/16Z...ISOLD MVFR SHRAS E OF KOMN-KOBE. AFT
25/16Z...SCT MVFR SHRAS/ISOLD IFR TSRAS SHIFTING E OF KOMN-KOBE...
ENDING COASTAL SITES.
&&
.MARINE...
POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS A DEEP HI PRES RIDGE
CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MAINTAINS A STEADY MODERATE TO
FRESH ERLY BREEZE ACRS THE LCL ATLC OVERNIGHT. SEAS 4-6FT
AREAWIDE...DOMINANT PDS BTWN 6-8SEC. SCT SHRAS/ISOLD TSRAS. NO SIG
CHANGES WITH THE EVNG UPDATE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD WARM LOWS ARE IN JEOPARDY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS...
SUNDAY MAY 24TH...
DAB 75 (1995)
MCO 74 (1991)
MLB 76 (1995)
VRB 77 (1997)
MONDAY MAY 25TH...
DAB 75 (1991)
MCO 74 (2014)
MLB 76 (1991)
VRB 77 (1991)
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...VOLKMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
257 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ONGOING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
TOWARDS THE GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MAINLY QUIET
CONDITIONS FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. A WEAK SEA BREEZE HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG THE GULF COAST...AND MORE NUMEROUS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED THERE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS THINKING MATCHES UP WELL WITH
THE LATEST HRRR WHICH HAS NUMEROUS STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF
NAPLES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. STORMS SHOULD
WIND DOWN AND MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING...WITH
MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE REGION...BUT ESPECIALLY FOR
THE EAST COAST...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. LIFE-
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SETTLE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
LEAD TO PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM DRYING. SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN THE MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE
ATLANTIC...SO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COASTAL/STREAMER SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE EAST COAST...MAINLY IN THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS. PWATS WILL REMAIN 1.5-1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WEST AND GULF COAST THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...AND HIRES
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK SEA BREEZE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF
COAST DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON. WITH THE BRISK EASTERLY
FLOW...EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO QUICKLY MOVE WEST INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITHOUT TOO MUCH FANFARE.
TUESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DRIEST LOW/MID LEVEL
AIR FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...WITH PWATS FALLING TO 1-1.4 INCHES AREAWIDE. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EAST AND A FEW SHOWERS FOR THE
GULF COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WITH A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW...AND HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
CONTINUING.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SQUEEZE PLAY UNDERWAY AS LARGE CUTOFF
UPPER LOW DRIFTS WEST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...AND AN UPPER TROUGH TRIES TO PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO GET STRETCHED ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN
IT BREAKS DOWN AND GETS SHUNTED TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON-SCHEDULE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA, MAINLY FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE SOUTH AND WEST OVER
THE INTERIOR SECTIONS. EASTERLY FLOW IN LOW/MID LEVELS WILL FOCUS
THESE STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE GULF COAST THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. KAPF THE ONLY TERMINAL EXPECTED
TO BE IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR AND
SHIFTING/GUSTY WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST 22Z. EAST COAST TERMINALS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY/VFR WITH CIRRUS CANOPY FROM INLAND STORMS
SPREADING EASTWARD. EAST WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED EAST
COAST SHOWERS POSSIBLE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME. EAST FLOW STRENGTHENS ON SUNDAY WITH LIKELY HIGHER COVERAGE
OF EAST COAST SHOWERS AFTER 12Z. /MOLLEDA
&&
.MARINE...
THE GRADIENT INCREASES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. WINDS BECOME INCREASINGLY EASTERLY AND
STRONGER SUNDAY, THEN SUSTAINED NEAR 20 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY, ELSE 15-20 KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST. MID AND
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST
COAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 78 86 78 87 / 10 20 30 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 87 79 87 / 10 30 30 30
MIAMI 78 88 78 90 / 10 30 30 30
NAPLES 73 92 73 92 / 30 60 20 60
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...59/RM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
923 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015
.UPDATE...
SURFACE ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED A LEFTOVER BOUNDARY
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA THIS MORNING EAST NORTHEAST OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY FOCUS NEAR THIS BOUNDARY
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE TO THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST. THE 12Z
SOUNDING SHOWED DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. SO THE LOWER INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO A
LOWER THREAT OF STRONG STORMS COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.
HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ACROSS THE GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL...AND
HEAVY RAIN.
THE FLOW HAS BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS DUE
TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST
STATES. THIS FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND OVER THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...WITH LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS LIKELY
AT THE EAST COAST BEACHES BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH
TUESDAY. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND WERE MOVING TOWARDS THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS. A WATERSPOUT WAS ALSO REPORTED ABOUT 16
MILES EAST OF MIAMI BEACH THIS MORNING. WATERSPOUTS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING...OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
BUMPED UP POPS FOR THE EAST COAST AND ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF
STORMS. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS...MAINLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
STORMS WILL THEN FOCUS ACROSS THE GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND AND A WEAK GULF COAST SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS. THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF MODELS SHOW THE LAKE
SHADOW ON THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST SIDES OF THE LAKE MAY INHIBIT
DEVELOPMENT...SO LOWERED POPS THERE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NE/E BY 14Z AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS FLORIDA. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL DESPITE HAZY/SMOKY SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING. NARROW
AREA OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A TSTM MAY AFFECT FLL/PBI AREAS THIS
MORNING THROUGH ABOUT 18Z WITH VCSH INCLUDED AT THESE TERMINALS.
EASTERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
PENINSULA AFTER 18Z WITH TEMPO TSRA AND MVFR AT KAPF. MOST OF THE
SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD WIND DOWN BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WITH MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. /MOLLEDA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
DISCUSSION...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH, THIS VERY EARLY MORNING, LEFT OVER FROM WEAK
LOW PRESSURE/STATIONARY FRONT OVER CENTRAL FL YESTERDAY, WILL KICK
OFF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS OFFSHORE AND NEAR THE BEACHES OF PALM
BEACH/BROWARD/MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES INTO SUNDAY AND THE RESULTING DEEP EASTERLIES LEAD TO A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A POCKET OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, WILL BE FORCED INTO THE
EAST COAST ON VEERING H85 AND H7 WIND FLOW LATER TODAY. PWATS MAY
DROP OFF SLIGHTLY BY THIS EVENING. NE TO E WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH
A LATE DAY GULF BREEZE TO PLACE MOST SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE
WEST COAST AND INTERIOR SECTIONS. ALTHOUGH H5 TEMPS WARM SLIGHTLY
AND H7-H5 LAPSE RATES DECREASE A LITTLE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY,
CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS WEST COAST TODAY.
SHOWERS MAY FORM ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AND DURING PART OF
SUNDAY MORNING AS THE EASTERLIES REALLY GET UNDERWAY. DOWNRIGHT
BREEZY INTO SUN AFTERNOON WITH SOME 25KT GUSTS ALONG THE EAST
COAST POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE MORNING COASTAL SHOWERS MAY PENETRATE
INLAND. MONDAY LOOKS SIMILAR, BUT AGAIN MOST STORMS WILL BE
INTERIOR AND WEST COAST.
WITH THE COLD H5 TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY, AND A
DEEP WEST COAST/FOUR CORNERS TROUGH PERSISTING, A MID LEVEL RIDGE
WILL HAVE FREE REIGN TO GROW AND EXPAND NOT ONLY OVER FLORIDA, BUT
EVENTUALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS COAST. WITH THE RIDGE CUTTING
OFF THROUGH H3, LARGE SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT
OF DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND FLORIDA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODEL SOUNDINGS ACTUALLY DROP PWATS CLOSE TO 1"
AT TIMES ALONG THE EAST COAST. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL REMAIN
OPPORTUNITIES FOR STORMS ON THE WEST COAST, POPS WILL BE RATHER LOW
BY MIDWEEK REGION-WIDE.
AS THE H5 RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD, THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND
PERSISTENT MODERATE EASTERLIES WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN A BIT INTO
LATE WEEK.
MARINE...
THE GRADIENT INCREASES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. WINDS BECOME INCREASINGLY EASTERLY AND
STRONGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND, CLOSE TO 15KTS BY LATE TODAY, THEN
NEAR 20KTS SUSTAINED LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY, ELSE 15-20 KTS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE FORECAST. MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST COAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 88 78 87 79 / 30 30 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 78 87 79 / 30 30 30 30
MIAMI 89 77 88 78 / 30 20 30 30
NAPLES 93 73 93 72 / 70 30 60 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....21/KM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
918 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015
.UPDATE...
12Z TBW RAOB SHOWS AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
WINDS APPROACHING 20 KTS IN THE LOWEST 1KFT OF THE MORNING SOUNDING.
A PWAT VALUE NEAR 1.6 INCHES SHOWS MORE THAN ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE
IN THE ATMOSPHERE TODAY TO SPARK ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTN SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. GIVEN THE STRONG EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT
FOR WEST COAST SEABREEZE TO PENETRATE TOO FAR INLAND TODAY SO HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST TODAY...ESPECIALLY
FROM AROUND TAMPA BAY INTO SW FLORIDA. RECENT RUNS OF CONVECTION
ALLOW MODELS AND THE HRRR SUPPORT THIS FORECAST THINKING. AS FAR
AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...IT WILL BE HOT ONCE AGAIN WITH
TEMPS RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TO START THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK SO ONLY A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE.
&&
.AVIATION...
BRIEF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z
AS SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...OTHERWISE VFR WILL
PREVAIL. EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS EXPECTED AFTER ABOUT
15Z THEN BRIEFLY BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST AT THE COASTAL TAF
SITES AFTER 20Z AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KNOTS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN AN
INCREASING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS WITH PERIODS OF CAUTIONARY OR LOW END SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 92 74 91 74 / 60 10 60 20
FMY 92 73 91 73 / 60 20 50 20
GIF 92 72 91 72 / 50 10 40 10
SRQ 92 73 90 74 / 60 20 60 20
BKV 92 71 90 70 / 40 10 60 20
SPG 91 76 90 76 / 60 20 60 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER/MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...13/OGLESBY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
236 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015
.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW CONTINUES ITS TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH
WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM WYOMING.
SHOWERS SEEN ON RADAR TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM IDAHO FALLS. NAM
AND HRRR SUGGEST FURTHER RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
HIGHLANDS LATER THIS MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN HITTING OUR
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER PRETTY HEAVILY WITH RAIN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
RUNS. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT INTO COLORADO TONIGHT
AND INTO WYOMING TOMORROW MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT AFTER THE HEAVIER BAND MOVES THROUGH THIS MORNING. WE MAY
FINALLY SEE A BREAK FROM THE WET WEATHER BY SUNDAY MORNING...A
TREND MORE FAVORED BY THE NAM THAN THE GFS...AS THE LOW CONTINUES
TO TRACK EASTWARD. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING...BUT THE GFS SUGGESTS A
WETTER PATTERN FOR MEMORIAL DAY AS IT DRAWS MOISTURE IN AHEAD OF
ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW MOVING INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY
NIGHT. NAM PRODUCES AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE WITH TO SHOW A RETURN TO WET
WEATHER WHILE WE REMAIN IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. RIDGING MAY FINALLY TAKE HOLD AS WE HEAD
INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO COMPLETELY
DRY. HINSBERGER
&&
.AVIATION...BROAD AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WORKING THROUGH EAST
IDAHO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL MTNS. PRECIP EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND UPPER
LOW INTO SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS THIS MORNING. NORTHERN AREAS COULD DRY
OUT EARLY BUT EXPECT PRECIP TO FILL IN ACROSS THE REGION ONCE AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN A MIX OF VFR/MVFR. PRECIP
LOOKS TO DISSIPATE LATE THIS EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS MOST AREAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUING TOWARD
SUNRISE. DMH
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A DEEP UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE SUNDAY. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL
KEEP EAST IDAHO UNDER THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION EACH DAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST NEXT WEEK FOR CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS EACH
DAY. DMH
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
859 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 859 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL PRESSURE TROUGH WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD
FROM EASTERN KS TOWARD NW IL OVERNIGHT PROMOTING A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET THROUGH WESTERN ILLINOIS AND ASSOCIATED 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS. COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY TO AROUND
1000 J/KG CAPE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT
MIDWAY BETWEEN I-55 AND I-57 WESTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH ANY ROTATING
STORMS...AND A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL 1
A.M. INSTABILITY WILL WANE OVERNIGHT AS NIGHTTIME COOLING
DEVELOPS. NEVERTHELESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT AS LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION. IN THE WARM HUMID AIR MASS
BEHIND A WARM FRONT THAT CROSSED EARLIER TODAY...LOWS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 60S CAN BE EXPECTED...AND BREEZY WINDS 15-20 MPH
CONTINUING. NO MAJOR UPDATES EXPECTED THIS EVENING EXCEPT SHORT
TERM ADJUSTMENTS FOR CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND
TEMPERATURES/WIND TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSOURI IN CONJUNCTION WITH A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTEX (MCV) GENERATED BY AN UPSTREAM STORM COMPLEX LAST NIGHT.
THESE CELLS ARE LIFTING MAINLY NORTHWARD AND WILL STAY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. FURTHER
EAST...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE KILX CWA...HOWEVER WEAK WIND SHEAR AND AN
OVERALL LACK OF FORCING WILL KEEP AREAL COVERAGE TO A MINIMUM INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. STRONGER FORCING WILL GRADUALLY ARRIVE AS A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON 19Z/2PM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS
TEXAS LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING. HIGH-RES
MODELS CONTINUE TO DELAY THE ONSET OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...WITH
THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTING THAT E/NE PARTS OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE TAILORED RAIN CHANCES
ACCORDINGLY...WITH LIKELY POPS GRADUALLY OVERSPREADING ALL LOCATIONS
SOUTHWEST OF A BLOOMINGTON TO PARIS LINE DURING THE EVENING...THEN
FURTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
DESPITE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH TEXAS
WAVE...WANING INSTABILITY AFTER SUNSET WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER FROM MATERIALIZING...ALTHOUGH A FEW CELLS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI TO SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS BY 12Z MON...THEN WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY MIDDAY. ONCE FEATURE PASSES...SHORT-WAVE RIDGING
IN ITS WAKE WILL CREATE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY AFTERNOON.
WILL STILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES FROM
THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...AS THESE COULD POSSIBLY TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL STORMS LATER IN THE DAY AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES
MODERATELY UNSTABLE. AT THIS TIME...THINK SUBSIDENCE AND
MID-LEVEL DRYING BEHIND THE WAVE WILL PREVENT CONVECTION...SO
WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST IN THE AFTERNOON. MAIN STORY ON
MONDAY WILL BE THE WINDY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS. MODELS ARE
SHOWING A 50-55KT 925MB JET DEVELOPING FROM THE OZARKS TO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT. AS MIXING BEGINS TO TAKE
PLACE MONDAY MORNING...SOME OF THIS HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR WILL BE
TRANSFERRED TO THE SURFACE RESULTING IN GUSTS OF 30-35MPH.
THANKS TO THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND CLEARING
SKIES...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR WELL INTO THE 80S.
THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT-WAVE CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA WILL ROUND THE
BASE OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH AND LIFT INTO ILLINOIS ON TUESDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING
OF THIS FEATURE. WILL BRING POPS BACK INTO THE PICTURE AFTER
MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL GO LIKELY ACROSS THE BOARD ON
TUESDAY. LATEST DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC FEATURES A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70 ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IN THE MORNING WILL LIKELY LIMIT INSTABILITY FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. LATEST NAM SHOWS SBCAPES INCREASING TO 1500J/KG ACROSS THE
SE CWA LATE IN THE DAY...WHILE 0-6KM SHEAR REMAINS QUITE WEAK AT
AROUND 25KT. WHILE ISOLATED STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS UNLIKELY IN THE OUTLOOK AREA.
ONCE THIS WAVE EXITS THE REGION...FORCING ONCE AGAIN BECOMES MEAGER
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A SUBTLE WAVE MAY PASS THROUGH
ILLINOIS ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS AT THAT
TIME. THURSDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE THE OVERALL DRIEST DAY OF THE
WEEK...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE
80S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...A MORE SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN-STREAM
WAVE WILL BEGIN PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARD ILLINOIS. STILL SOME
MODEL DISCREPANCY WITH THE TIMING OF THAT PROCESS...BUT TRENDS ARE
SUGGESTING ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TOWARD CENTRAL
ILLINOIS THIS EVENING...WITH THE FIRST THREE TAF SITES LIKELY TO
BE AFFECTED KSPI-KPIA-KBMI DUE TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM
THE WEST...WHILE KDEC-KCMI LIKELY TO BE AFFFECTED LATER IN THE
EVENING AS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THE SOUTH OR WEST CONVERGES
ON THE AREA. PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DESPITE SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE NIGHT...HOWEVER LOCAL IFR/MVFR VSBY AND
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN ISOLD STRONGER TSRA. DIMINISHING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE MORNING RESULTING IN VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 15-18Z THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS S 15-20 WITH
GUSTS 20-25 KTS OR HIGHER IN VICINITY OF TSRA...DECREASING TO
AROUND 15 KTS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ONTON
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...BARNES
AVIATION...ONTON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
701 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSOURI IN CONJUNCTION WITH A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTEX (MCV) GENERATED BY AN UPSTREAM STORM COMPLEX LAST NIGHT.
THESE CELLS ARE LIFTING MAINLY NORTHWARD AND WILL STAY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. FURTHER
EAST...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE KILX CWA...HOWEVER WEAK WIND SHEAR AND AN
OVERALL LACK OF FORCING WILL KEEP AREAL COVERAGE TO A MINIMUM INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. STRONGER FORCING WILL GRADUALLY ARRIVE AS A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON 19Z/2PM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS
TEXAS LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING. HIGH-RES
MODELS CONTINUE TO DELAY THE ONSET OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...WITH
THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTING THAT E/NE PARTS OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE TAILORED RAIN CHANCES
ACCORDINGLY...WITH LIKELY POPS GRADUALLY OVERSPREADING ALL LOCATIONS
SOUTHWEST OF A BLOOMINGTON TO PARIS LINE DURING THE EVENING...THEN
FURTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
DESPITE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH TEXAS
WAVE...WANING INSTABILITY AFTER SUNSET WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER FROM MATERIALIZING...ALTHOUGH A FEW CELLS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI TO SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS BY 12Z MON...THEN WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY MIDDAY. ONCE FEATURE PASSES...SHORT-WAVE RIDGING
IN ITS WAKE WILL CREATE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY AFTERNOON.
WILL STILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES FROM
THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...AS THESE COULD POSSIBLY TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL STORMS LATER IN THE DAY AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES
MODERATELY UNSTABLE. AT THIS TIME...THINK SUBSIDENCE AND
MID-LEVEL DRYING BEHIND THE WAVE WILL PREVENT CONVECTION...SO
WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST IN THE AFTERNOON. MAIN STORY ON
MONDAY WILL BE THE WINDY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS. MODELS ARE
SHOWING A 50-55KT 925MB JET DEVELOPING FROM THE OZARKS TO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT. AS MIXING BEGINS TO TAKE
PLACE MONDAY MORNING...SOME OF THIS HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR WILL BE
TRANSFERRED TO THE SURFACE RESULTING IN GUSTS OF 30-35MPH.
THANKS TO THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND CLEARING
SKIES...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR WELL INTO THE 80S.
THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT-WAVE CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA WILL ROUND THE
BASE OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH AND LIFT INTO ILLINOIS ON TUESDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING
OF THIS FEATURE. WILL BRING POPS BACK INTO THE PICTURE AFTER
MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL GO LIKELY ACROSS THE BOARD ON
TUESDAY. LATEST DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC FEATURES A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70 ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IN THE MORNING WILL LIKELY LIMIT INSTABILITY FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. LATEST NAM SHOWS SBCAPES INCREASING TO 1500J/KG ACROSS THE
SE CWA LATE IN THE DAY...WHILE 0-6KM SHEAR REMAINS QUITE WEAK AT
AROUND 25KT. WHILE ISOLATED STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS UNLIKELY IN THE OUTLOOK AREA.
ONCE THIS WAVE EXITS THE REGION...FORCING ONCE AGAIN BECOMES MEAGER
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A SUBTLE WAVE MAY PASS THROUGH
ILLINOIS ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS AT THAT
TIME. THURSDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE THE OVERALL DRIEST DAY OF THE
WEEK...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE
80S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...A MORE SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN-STREAM
WAVE WILL BEGIN PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARD ILLINOIS. STILL SOME
MODEL DISCREPANCY WITH THE TIMING OF THAT PROCESS...BUT TRENDS ARE
SUGGESTING ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TOWARD CENTRAL
ILLINOIS THIS EVENING...WITH THE FIRST THREE TAF SITES LIKELY TO
BE AFFECTED KSPI-KPIA-KBMI DUE TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM
THE WEST...WHILE KDEC-KCMI LIKELY TO BE AFFFECTED LATER IN THE
EVENING AS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THE SOUTH OR WEST CONVERGES
ON THE AREA. PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DESPITE SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE NIGHT...HOWEVER LOCAL IFR/MVFR VSBY AND
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN ISOLD STRONGER TSRA. DIMINISHING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE MORNING RESULTING IN VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 15-18Z THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS S 15-20 WITH
GUSTS 20-25 KTS OR HIGHER IN VICINITY OF TSRA...DECREASING TO
AROUND 15 KTS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...BARNES
AVIATION...ONTON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
642 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS NORTHERN MO THIS AM.
THESE ECHOES ARE SLOWLY MOVING TO THE ENE. AT THIS TIME DO NOT SEE
ANY OF IT MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. HRRR DEPICTS ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN
CWA...TEMP DEWPOINT SPREADS REMAIN LARGE INDICATING THAT MORE
SATURATION WOULD NEED TO OCCUR FOR THE RAIN TO REACH THE GROUND.
DID NOT BUMP UP POPS AS I MY GUT TELLS ME WE WONT SEE MUCH FROM
THESE SHOWERS. WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO GET SPRINKLES FROM THOUGH
DURING THE DAY TODAY. WILL ADVISE DAY SHIFT TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THESE SHOWERS IN CASE IT STARTS REACHING THE GROUND.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WAS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE
STRONGEST HIGH WAS LOCATED OFF TO OUR EAST. THIS WAS LEADING TO A
LIGHT EASTERLY WIND ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREA. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
LEAD TO CIRRUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE WAS THE
RESULT OF A SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE UPPER LEVELS. THIS FLOW
AND RIPPLES THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCER
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION GRADIENT WILL BE LOCATED
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CWA...MAKING FOR A DIFFICULT FORECAST.
DURING THE DAY TODAY...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST. WAA INTO
THE AREA AND INSOLATION WILL HELP TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S. A FEW SITES MAY EVEN
BREAK THE 80 DEGREE MARK. H5 RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY AND EVEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE FLOW WILL THEN
TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO MOISTURE ADVECTION
INTO THE AREA. TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH NO
POPS.
TONIGHT...H5 RIDGING SHOULD OCCUPY MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH 12Z.
THIS...SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT OVERALL POPS FOR THE NIGHT. SPECTRAL
MODELS SUGGEST THAT WE WILL SEE PRECIP OVER MOST OF THE AREA FROM
6Z TO 12Z SUNDAY AM. THE NAM SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL
BE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MODEL REFLECTIVITY FROM THE
WRFARW AND WRFNMM SUPPORTS THIS NOTION AS WELL. AS FAR AS I CAN
TELL...THE NAM AND AND WRF MODELS HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON COVERAGE
ACROSS THE CWA. THIS MEANS THAT RAIN WILL LIKELY STAY WEST OF
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. A LACK OF INSTABILITY
SUGGESTS THAT THIS WILL BE MOSTLY RAIN. I CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH THIS FLOW. I PUT THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST FOR ANY AREA THAT HAS A CHANCE OR GREATER FOR PRECIP.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED WITH PERIODIC BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND SOME STORMS.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGHER POPS TARGETING MAINLY WESTERN 1/2-2/3 OF CWA
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AM WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL JET AND ATTENDANT MOIST ADVECTION AND
CONVERGENCE. THEN...CONTINUED CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOIST AXIS (PWATS
1.5-1.75 INCHES) AND POTENTIAL PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
PERHAPS SECONDARY FOCUS OF HIGHER POPS ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LIFTING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
MEMORIAL DAY AND MONDAY NIGHT... MORE AGREEMENT THAT MEMORIAL DAY HARBORS A MUCH
LOWER POTENTIAL FOR PCPN AS FLOW VEERS WESTERLY USHERING IN SLIGHT DRYING AND
SHIFTING MAIN MOIST AXIS TO OUR EAST... WHILE MAIN FORCING ATTENDANT TO SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING AWAY FROM REGION. THUS MEMORIAL DAY OVERALL SHOULD HAVE MANY DRY
HOURS... BUT WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 OR LOWER 80S AND DEWPTS
WELL IN THE 60S. PCPN CHCS LOOK TO INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS SECONDARY
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... AND ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE
COOL FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY AM.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... SOME INDICATIONS OF POSSIBLY ANOTHER DRIER PERIOD DEVELOPING
BY WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF WEAK FRONT AND INCREASING HEIGHTS
ALOFT IN WAKE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. PATTERN THOUGH LOOKS TO RELOAD AND TURN ACTIVE
YET AGAIN LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND JUST BEYOND WITH GULF MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD
OF ANOTHER PLAINS TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT CLOUD DECK
TO START LOWERING BUT STAY AOA 5KFT. RAIN WILL START TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON
OVERALL COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP DECIDED TO LEAVE MENTION OF POPS
OUT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS CID IS THE ONLY SITE THAT COULD HAVE
-RA BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...GIBBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
644 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
The forecast issue tonight is how much rain will fall on the
flooded areas in the southeast part of the forecast area. At 19
UTC, a large-scale upper trough was moving northeast out of the
southern plains. The 12 UTC short-range models were in decent
agreement with the progression of the precipitation this evening.
Heaviest rainfalls should fall across Missouri sparing eastern
Kansas of heavy rainfall. However, it appears likely that a band
of showers and isolated thunderstorms should move through this
evening. The latest HRRR is consistent with previous runs in this
scenario as are the rest of the convective resolving meso-scale
models. Although widespread heavy rainfall is not expected, it
would not take much rainfall to cause more flooding problems.
Therefore, we will keep the flash flood watch going and we can
cancel it early if necessary.
Additional thunderstorms are developing over southeast Colorado
which the hi-res NAM brings east into our west counties late
tonight. Keep a small POP going along with clouds late tonight and
Monday morning.
Both the 12 UTC NAM/GFS bring an EML into northeast KS in the wake
of the ejecting upper trough. Model soundings suggest a decent
cap over the area on Monday with more than modest surface based
CAPE by afternoon. On the synoptic scale, a shortwave should once
again be moving through the southern plains, but it should be too
far south to impact our weather. Meanwhile, the models develop
convection near the synoptic boundary over parts of central KS/NE.
Will keep pops going for late afternoon development over our
northwest counties. The GFS has a deeper 500 mb low over the
central plains by next Sunday while the ECMWF is not as deep and
more progressive.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
The weather pattern remains unsettled through the forecast period
and we will have thunderstorms chances almost every period. The
large upper trough over the desert southwest slowly moves into the
central plains during the period. The 12 UTC ECWMF/GFS agree
with the general progression, but there are significant differences
in the details. At the surface, there will be a boundary in the
vicinity which will be heavily influenced by mesoscale influences.
Meanwhile, the Gulf of Mexico will remain open for business with
moisture advection into the central Plains. Will keep
thunderstorms chances going with more humid and warm weather close
to seasonal normal`s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 640 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
Isolated light showers will be around over far eastern KS this
evening, with things drying out after midnight. Models are
developing stratus in the area after that time and have MVFR
conditions through the early morning. Another chance for showers
may show up during Monday morning, and then dissipate.
Thunderstorm chances will have to wait until late afternoon at MHK
and during Monday evening farther east. Other than expected MVFR
ceilings tonight, expect VFR through the forecast period.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ026-039-040-
054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Johnson
LONG TERM...Johnson
AVIATION...GDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1211 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS CLOSED LOW OVER
THE SW US...WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE/NORTHEAST COLORADO. SATELLITE SHOWS CLEARING
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE SW PART OF THE CWA...WITH STRATUS/SHOWERS
TRANSITIONING NORTHWARDS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO
FIRE ALONG PALMER DIVING ALONG NORTHERN EXTENT OF SURFACE LOW IN
EASTERN COLORADO.
REGARDING SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
CLEARING TAKING PLACE IN THE SW RAP AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATED
500-1500 J/KG OF SB CAPE ALREADY DEVELOPING...AND GUIDANCE WOULD
FAVOR THIS DEVELOPING INTO THE SW PART OF THE CWA (ASSOCIATED WITH
CLEARING. GOOD VEERING PROFILES ARE IN PLACE ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF
THE SURFACE LOW WHERE RAP IS HINTING AT HELICITY VALUES APPROACHING
250 M2/S2 BY 00Z. ORGANIZED SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT SEEMS TO BE
TIED TO THIS SURFACE LOW AND WOULD FAVOR THE SOUTHWEST PART OF OUR
CWA. DEEP SPEED SHEER CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AND GUIDANCE INDICATES
AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MU CAPE (POSSIBLY HIGHER IF NAM IS TO BE
TRUSTED). STRONG ISENTROPIC SIGNAL CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME
PERIOD...AND SEVERAL LOBES OF VORTICITY AND OMEGA ROTATE THROUGH
THE REGION. THIS SHOULD COMBINE TO CREATE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY A SEVERE HAIL THREAT IF WE SEE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. NOT AS SURE ABOUT WIND THREAT CONSIDERING THE
PROFILES AND STABLE LOWER LEVELS.
FOG/STRATUS/DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE ALL NIGHT WITH GOOD BL MOISTURE
FLUX THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING EASTWARD. WITH BETTER
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM/DRIZZLE COVERAGE DENSE FOG MAY NOT BE AS MUCH OF
A CONCERN DUE TO THE INCREASE IN MIXING. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS
LESS MIXING WOULD RESULT IN DENSE FOG DUE TO THE LONG FETCH
UPSLOPE/MAGNITUDE OF MOISTURE ADVECTION.
GUIDANCES SHOWS TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SATURDAY
MORNING...ONE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER DEVELOPING INTO
NORTHERN COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE H3 JET BEGINS TO SHIFT
EASTWARD. THERE SEEMS TO BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES LIKELY DUE TO SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE...AND NAM IS REALLY
HITTING THIS DRY PERIOD HARDER COMPARED TO GFS/ECMWF. DECIDED OT
TIMING OUT THE LULL TO FAVOR LOWER POPS SAT MORNING...BEFORE
COVERAGE REDEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON. BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL IS AGAIN
IN EASTERN COLORADO BY MID AFTERNOON. CAPE PROFILES ARE MUCH MORE
ROBUST ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA...AS WELL AS GOOD SHEER. AS A
RESULT WE WILL PROBABLY SEE A BETTER SEVERE THREAT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THAN TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015
THE SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW OVER UT/CO AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT NOT BEFORE SWINGING SEVERAL MORE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
AROUND ITS PERIPHERY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE PATTERN WILL
BE SOMEWHAT LESS ACTIVE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL A BIT MORE OF THE HIT-AND-MISS VARIETY
BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WEST TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. OVERALL...THE LONG RANGE PERIOD WILL BE ONE OF DECREASING
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO SEASONAL
NORMS IN THE 70S/LOW 80S FOR HIGHS AND 50S FOR LOWS.
TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THERE IS DECENT POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN COLORADO AND A SURFACE DRYLINE SETS UP OVER
EC/SE COLORADO. A 100 KT 250 MB JET STREAK WILL BE RUNNING UP THE
EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE C0-KS BORDER DURING PEAK
HEATING...AND WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE...A ROUND
OF SEVERE STORMS SEEMS PROBABLE IN EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN
KANSAS. STORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTH INTO NEBRASKA DURING THE
EVENING.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...THE TAIL END OF THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH
WILL FINALLY SWING THROUGH THE AREA SO CONTINUED CHANCE POPS AS A
RESULT. WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS FEATURE ON MONDAY WILL PROVIDE
A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE ONSLAUGHT OF RECENT PRECIPITATION.
MID WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A QUASI ZONAL FLOW WITH A FEW
WEAK EMBEDDED TROUGH WHICH WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS BUT OTHERWISE ACCOMPANIED BY TEMPERATURES MORE
TYPICAL OF LATE MAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015
EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS DUE MAINLY TO LOW CEILINGS TO PERSIST
OVERNIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 14Z AT GLD AND ABOUT 17Z AT MCK WITH
SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF EACH SITE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
MVFR AT GLD AFTER 17Z AND REMAIN THERE AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 00Z. AT MCK...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
REMAIN IFR WITH LIFR CONDITIONS AND SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
412 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
UPDATE IS FOR THE AVIATION SECTION. ALSO ADDED SOME SPRINKLES INTO
THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWFA PER RETURNS ON KPAH/KVWX. MODELS NOT
HANDLING THIS WELL AT ALL. SOME EVIDENCE OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
310K...700-500MB WAA AND MOISTURE PER THE RAP MODEL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
WILL BE ONE MORE DRY DAY TODAY...THEN POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA... ALLOWING FOR MOIST UNSETTLED SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A
BROAD TROF AND LOW OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH CONVECTIVE
CHANCES CONTINUING. THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM...PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE DRIVEN BY AREAS OF INSTABILITY AND WEAK IMPULSES MOVING
SW/NE ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS LITTLE SURFACE OR BOUNDARY LAYER
FOCUS. USED A BLEND OF EXISTING NUMBERS AND LATEST BASE MODEL
OUTPUT FOR TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
LOW CONFIDENCE IN POPS/TIMING FOR THE EXTENDED.
AS USUAL TRIED TO RULE OUT POPS FOR THE LEAST LIKELY TIME
FRAMES...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. LI`S STAY NEGATIVE WITH CAPES
SOARING INTO THE 1K 1500 J/KG/2 RANGE AT TIMES COULD NOT RULE OUT
THUNDER WITH ANY OF THE POPS. HOWEVER THE FORECAST SOUNDING DO NOT
LOOK IMPRESSIVE FOR RAIN IN THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER WE ARE WARM
SECTORED AND THERE WILL BE SOME PERTURBATIONS ALOFT THAT MOVE
THROUGH AND WILL SERVE AS A KICKER FOR STORMS. THERE ARE LITTLE TO
NO SURFACE REFLECTIONS OTHER THAN MAYBE A WEAK TROUGH MID WEEK OR
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER DO
NOT SEE ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS IN THE EXTENDED. BUT AS
AFOREMENTIONED WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AND WILL LIKELY SEE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM MID WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A COLD
FRONT COULD BRING A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SE
WINDS THE RULE. DERIVED CU RULE OFF THE MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IF
ANY LOWER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
838 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
.DISCUSSION...
OUR REGION IS FEELING THE EFFECT OF MID ATMOSPHERIC DRY SLOTTING
AND THIS IS PROBABLY BEST OBSERVED ON THE 00Z FWD SOUNDING THIS
EVENING WITH MUCH DRIER AIR HAVING WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AT AND ABOVE THE 5KFT LEVEL. THIS IS TO BE
EXPECTED ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION WHICH
SWUNG THROUGH OUR REGION EARLIER. WHILE THE HEAVY RAINFALL WE
ANTICIPATED TODAY DID NOT MATERIALIZE...ITS IMPORTANT THAT WE NOT
LET OUR GUARD DOWN AS THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A POSSIBLY
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT COMING TO OUR REGION LATE TOMORROW INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.
FOR THE UPDATE...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. HRRR NOT SHOWING MUCH MORE DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT AND WHILE OUR FLOW ALOFT REMAINS SOUTHWEST...NOT SEEING
ANYTHING IN THIS FLOW TO TRIGGER MUCH MORE THAN SCATTERED
REDEVELOPMENT AT BEST. CURRENT TEMPS ARE VERY CLOSE TO FCST MIN
TEMPS OVERNIGHT AND WHILE THE CLEARING LINE ON IR IMAGERY THIS
EVENING IS RAPIDLY MOVING OUR WAY FROM THE WEST...SHOULD SEE THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP
OVERNIGHT TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO MUCH MORE.
ALL OTHER GRIDS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. UPDATED ZONE PACKAGE OUT
SHORTLY...13.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
AVIATION...
SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...AND WILL HANDLE WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE COMMON ACROSS AREA TERMINALS ATTM...BUT THIS WILL
MOST LIKELY NOT LAST LONG. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION 03-09Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO AREAL COVERAGE HAVE CHOSEN TO
ONLY INCLUDE VCTS WITH THIS ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SELY
WINDS 8-12 KTS THROUGH THE PD. /12/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 70 83 69 85 / 40 70 90 40
MLU 70 83 70 83 / 40 70 90 80
DEQ 69 79 66 83 / 40 70 90 30
TXK 69 81 67 84 / 40 70 90 40
ELD 69 83 68 84 / 40 70 90 80
TYR 71 81 68 85 / 40 80 90 30
GGG 71 82 68 85 / 40 70 90 30
LFK 72 83 70 86 / 40 70 90 50
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ077.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
&&
$$
12/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1034 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015
WE WILL HAVE PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAINS SHOULD COME TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THEN SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY RAINS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS
FROM 60 TO 65.
THE AREA SHOULD DRY OUT MID WEEK...THEN ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURE SHOULD REMAIN MILD...MAINLY 75 TO 80.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1034 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015
MAINTAINED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT WITH ONLY A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HRRR MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHOWERS
GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THE NOTION OF LIMITED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS BACKED BY
MODEL DATA INDICATING ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY TONIGHT DESPITE A
FORMIDABLE LOW LEVEL JET OF 40 KNOTS AND STRONG 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT.
HAVE 60-80 PCT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER TAPERING
TO 30-40 PCT CHANCES TOWARD INTERSTATE 94. DEEP LAYER WINDS ARE
OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TONIGHT WHICH WILL TEND TO KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST OF THE GRR FORECAST AREAS. THE NORTHWEST
CWA UP TOWARDS LUDINGTON STANDS THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
AN EMBEDDED STORM. THE JACKSON AREA COULD BE DRY MOST OF THE
NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD IN THE 60S FOR THE MOST PART TONIGHT AS
A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY BE PICKING UP TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A HIGH OFF THE EAST
COAST AND A LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. IT LOOKS
TO BECOME WINDY ON MEMORIAL DAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015
WILL HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THEN WE WILL GET WITHIN A DRY SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SOME SUNSHINE DEVELOPING. ANOTHER SURGE OF RAIN...POSSIBLY HEAVY...
MOVES IN TOWARD MID DAY TUESDAY AND LINGERS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
AN AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE WAS MOVING INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
AS WE ARE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THIS WILL
LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH 06Z BEFORE EXITING NE. THEREFORE WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT EXPECT HIGH RAIN CHANCES EVERYWHERE.
THE BEST MOISTURE POOLS OVER THE NORTHERN CWA DUE TO THE ISENTROPIC
LIFT FROM THIS AFTERNOON. SOME AREAS MAY SEE OVER A HALF INCH OF
RAIN NEAR HIGHWAY 10 TONIGHT. MEANWHILE THE I-94 CORRIDOR SHOULD
ONLY SEE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH. THERE MAY BE A FEW EMBEDDED
STORMS.
THE WARM FRONT SWINGS THROUGH DURING THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING. HOWEVER DRIER AIR ARRIVES
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE REDUCED TO
ISOLATED FOR THE AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD BREAK OUT INTO SOME SUNSHINE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS MAINLY DRY WARM SECTOR
SHOULD CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWEST MI MONDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AND ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT WILL BRING MORE RAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CLIMB WHICH MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. RAMPED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
OVERALL...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN WITH TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. BUT THERE IS THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED HEAVIER
RAINS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015
AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT RAIN EVENT A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT BUILD OVERHEAD WED AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY. NEXT CHANCE OF RAINFALL STILL ON TRACK FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. LATEST NWP
TRENDING STRONGER WITH NORTHERN STREAM WHICH RESULTS IN A MORE
PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM WITH LESS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AND A GOOD PUSH OF
SEASONABLY COOL CANADIAN AIR BY SUNDAY.
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN ECMWF AND GFS ON THE EVOLUTION
AND EVENTUAL SHEARING OUT OF THE WEST U.S. SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
BUT THEY HAVE MORE IN COMMON THAN NOT SO CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. EITHER SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN A ROUND OF
FRONTAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON
(GFS) OR ON SATURDAY (ECMWF). OVERALL ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER WITH
MORE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...THERE
WILL BE GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH PWATS ABOVE
1.5 INCHES.
SEVERE WEATHER WISE...SHEAR LOOKS TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR AT THIS
TIME WITH OVERALL RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW AND A
UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILE OVERALL. CAPE VALUES ARE A BIT BETTER WITH
500 TO 1500 J/KG DEPENDING ON AFTERNOON VERSUS MORNING FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 821 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015
MAIN AVIATION ITEM FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE STRENGTHENING
WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT BUT REMAIN IN THE 10
TO 20 KNOT RANGE. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-30 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE. A CROSS WIND WILL BE PRESENT ON EAST/WEST RUNWAYS.
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING AT KMKG AND KGRR. SOME LIGHT FOG WILL LIKELY BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS TO ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT. THE MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AT KMKG AND KGRR WITH ALL AREAS BECOMING
VFR IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE CEILINGS AND LIGHT FOG LIFT.
RAIN WILL BE MOST PREVALENT NORTH OF THE TAF SITES IN THE 00Z TO
06Z TIME FRAME THIS EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015
WILL GET AN ADVANCED NOTICE AND ISSUE MARINE HEADLINES FOR MEMORIAL
DAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL RAMP UP LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AND WAVES
WILL BUILD BY MID MORNING MONDAY. WILL ALSO ISSUE A BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT FOR ANY WILLING TO GO OUT AND SWIM IN MID 40 DEGREE WATER
TEMPS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015
THREE MAIN ROUNDS OF RAIN ARE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...THE FIRST OF WHICH IS ARRIVING NOW. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF UP TO HALF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE UPPER MUSKEGON
BASIN AND PERE MARQUETTE BASINS. MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT LOOKS FAIRLY DRY. A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE BIGGEST HYDRO CONCERN COULD BE THE THIRD ROUND ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A MORE UNSTABLE AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE
MORE CONDUCIVE TO STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE ECMWF EPS...GEM...AND GFS AGREE THAT 2 TO
3 INCHES OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. RIVER RISES ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEK AND ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN IMMEDIATE
THREAT WILL BE MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING MIDWEEK WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
FLOODING RISK IS HIGHER NEXT WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS AND
ON SMALLER STREAMS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 9 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT FOR MIZ056-064-071.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 9 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR MIZ037-043-050.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
LMZ847>849.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
LMZ844>846.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...COBB
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
736 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE WRN CONUS WITH A LOW OVER SRN WY AND A RIDGE FROM THE SE CONUS
TO THE WRN LAKES. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LIFINT TO THE NNE TRHOUGH
FROM ERN IA WHILE ANOTHER TRAILED OVER OK. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WAS
LOCATED OVER SW IA WITH A WARM FRONT INTO NRN IL. A SURGE OF
MOISTURE (8 G/KG AND 850 MB DEWPONTS AROUND 12C) WITH STRONG 300K-
310K ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT SUPPORTED A LARGE AREA
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FROM SE MN THROUGH SRN WI INTO NRN IL.
VIS/IR LOOPS SHOWED THICKENING MID/HIGH CLOUDS INTO UPPER MI NORTH
OF THE AREA OF RAIN. TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
BUT HAVE FALLEN OFF N CNTRL AS A LAKE BREEZE MOVED IN.
RADAR TRENDS AND MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE AREA OF RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD THROUGH THE CWA FROM S TO N BTWN 23Z-06Z. SUPPORTED BY
MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300 QVECTOR CONV AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A JET OVER NRN ONTARIO...WIDESRPEAD MODERATE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH QPF FROM 1.0-1.5 INCHES THROUGH
MON. THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ARE EXEPCTED OVER THE SE WHERE THE
STRONGER MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS FOCUSED.
THE FIRST AREA OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF DURING THE MORNING
OVER THE SOUTH AND THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE TRAILING
SHORTWAVE FROM THE SRN WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL RAIN INTO THE WEST BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. NO THUNDER WAS MENTIONED...GIVEN LITTLE OR NO
FCST ELEVATED CAPE AND LACK OF LIGHTNING UPSTREAM.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS LIFTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS WEEK AS ADDITIONAL
TROUGHING MOVES OVER NORTHWEST CONUS. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...NW CONUS
TROUGH MOVES EAST AND MERGES WITH DEEPER TROUGH MOVING FM CNTRL
CANADA OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
LK SUPERIOR ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL DRAG A TROUGH ACROSS UPPER LAKES ON
TUESDAY AS IT MOVES TO QUEBEC. MOST RAIN WILL BE DONE BY 00Z TUESDAY
AS DRY SLOT MOVES IN FM THE SOUTH IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW
MOVING THROUGH. TRACK OF SFC LOW STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT SEEMS IT WILL
BE SOMEWHERE OVER CNTRL OR EASTERN LK SUPERIOR...COMPARED TO FARTHER
WEST TRACK MODELS WERE PREVIOUSLY INDICATING. RESULT WILL BE TO KEEP
EASTERLY COMPONENT WIND OVER THE KEWEENAW INTO THE EVENING AND THUS
A BETTER CHANCE OF FOG OR EVEN SOME DRIZZLE. SSW-SW WINDS ELSEWHERE
WILL LIMIT MOST OF THE FOG VCNTY OF LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE.
NEXT BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS
MODELS INDICATE SHORTWAVES CURRENTLY OVER FAR SOUTHERN CA AND IN THE
VCNTY OF UPPER LOW CENTER OVER INTERMOUNTAIN WEST COMBINE TO LIFT
ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES. MAY EVEN BE STRONG ENOUGH SYSTEM TO HELP
DEVELOP A SFC LOW PRESSURE. HEAVIEST QPF WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF
H85-H7 LOWS...WHICH IS NOT QUITE CLEAR. GFS FAVORS FAR WESTERN UPR
MICHIGAN WHILE GEM-NH AND ECMWF ARE MORE OVER CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT WITH MUCAPES OF AT LEAST 300 J/KG ECMWF
OR UP OVER 1000J/KG AS THIS WAVE LIFTS THROUGH...SO DID INCLUDE TSRA
MENTION ON TUE/TUE NIGHT. IF FARTHER WEST TRACK VERIFIES...POTENTIAL
IS THERE FOR SFC BASED TSRA TUE AFTN INTO TUE EVENING. MAX TEMPS ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH 70S INLAND WEST.
HOWEVER...EAST WINDS CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR AND SOUTH WINDS CLOSER TO
LK MICHIGAN WILL KEEP IT COOLEST IN THOSE AREAS DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW
AND ALSO LINGERING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OR TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF UPPER LAKES BY WED.
COULD BE WEAKER WAVE ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THAT INTERACTS WITH SOME
AFTN HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLD SHRA OR EVEN TSRA...MAINLY WEST. GEM-
NH AND ECMWF HINTING AT THIS...SO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES EVEN THOUGH
GFS FAVORS DRY CONDITIONS. LIGHTER WEST WINDS WILL ONLY BE LOCALLY
ONSHORE...SO MOST AREAS SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 70S AS H85 TEMPS
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TEENS C.
TROUGH ALOFT SETTLES OVER UPR LAKES ON THURSDAY WHILE MORE ORGANIZED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST FM THE NORTHWEST CONUS. SFC LOW AND
TROUGH WILL EDGE ACROSS UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY
THEN SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
TROUGH WILL THEN BE SHOVED SOUTH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPR GREAT LAKES. BEST SHOT OF SHRA AND POSSIBLE
TSRA ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE WEST THEN OVER ALL OF CWA
ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER AND SFC COLD FRONT SWEEP THROUGH. MODELS ALL
HAVE THE GENERAL IDEA OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT VARY ON WHEN
PASSAGE OCCURS. GFS IS QUICKEST WITH MOST OF AREA DRY BY FRIDAY
AFTN. ECMWF AND GEM-NH ARE SLOWER...BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH ON
FRIDAY OR EVEN FRIDAY NIGHT. NO MATTER WHICH SOLUTION IS
PREFERRED...APPEARS COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ON THE WAY NEXT
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 736 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS OVER WI WILL LIFT STEADILY N INTO UPPER MI
TONIGHT...BRINGING DETERIORATING CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS
INITIALLY AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW WILL FALL TO LIFR OVERNIGHT. LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THRU MON THOUGH SOME IMPROVEMENT
COULD OCCUR LATE IN THE AFTN AT KIWD/KSAW AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WSW
BEHIND FROPA. MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA MAY RESULT IN VIS DROPPING TO VLIFR AT KCMX
MON MORNING...BUT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN SUCH A LOW VIS WITH
RAIN PREVAILING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015
LIGHT WINDS INCREASE ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LIFTS TOWARD LK SUPERIOR. EAST WINDS MAY REACH 25
KTS...STRONGEST OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. LOW SLIDES OVERHEAD ON
MONDAY NIGHT SO THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH. WINDS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BLO 20 KTS. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND IT SHOULD LINGER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE FOG MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES. ONCE IT IS EVIDENT
HOW EXPANSIVE THE FOG IS...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
410 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
UT...A RIDGE FROM THE SE CONUS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND A TROUGH
OVER NE CANADA RESULTING IN CONFLUENT WNW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN
LAKES. AT THE SFC...SW TO W WINDS PREVAILED OVER MOST OF UPPER MI
BUT WERE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO MOVE INTO THE N
CNTRL. MIXING AOA 10K FT HAS HELPED DROP DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S. WITH TEMPS ALSO INTO THE UPPER 70S...RH VALUES HAVE DROPPED
INTO THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE. VIS LOOP INDICATEED SCT DIURNAL CU
ALONG WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE MN/WI.
TONIGHT...WITH PERSISTENT SW WINDS AND INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS...MIN READINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH
THE WARMEST CONDITIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
PREVAIL.
SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SFC AND MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE PLAINS WITH CONTINUED RIDING INTO THE NRN LAKES. HOWEVER SW
TO W MID LEVEL FLOW BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE WITH 300K-310K
ISENTROPIC ASCENT TOWARD THE AREA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
TOWARD THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT THAT THE ONSET OF THE
PCPN MAY BE DELAYED BY CONTINUE DRY LOW LEVELS. TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN
CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S BUT WILL BE LIMITED BY INCREASING CLOUD
THICKNESS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015
UPPER AIR PATTERN TO START LONG TERM SHOWS LARGER TROUGH FM WESTERN
CANADA INTO THE PLAIN STATES. RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER SE CONUS
EXTENDS RIDGE BACK OVER GREAT LAKES. SHORTWAVE ON LEADING EDGE OF
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH LIFTS TOWARD UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE WAVE...SEEN IN H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT FIELDS...
COMBINES WITH LARGER SCALE ASCENT IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 130+
KT JET STREAK FM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO NEW ENGLAND TO BRING A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS ACROSS CWA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTN.
SHOWERS SHOULD END FIRST ALONG THE WI BORDER ON MONDAY MORNING AND
THEN ALONG LK SUPERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON. ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOWS
UP SOME WITH SI/S LOWERING TOWARD 0-1C BUT THAT ARRIVES AFTER MAIN
FORCING MOVES ACROSS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOR TSRA AT THIS POINT.
RAIN COULD FALL HEAVY AT TIMES GIVEN PWATS BY 12Z MONDAY AT KGRB
THAT WOULD BE IN THE HIGHEST 5 PCT COMPARED TO CLIMO FOR THE DATE.
ESE-E WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT/ADVECTION OF
HIGHER DWPNTS AND RAIN OVER ALL THE AREA POINTS TO FOG OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/ADJACENT SHORELINES AND ALSO OVER KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CNTRL CWA BTWN KIMT AND MARQUETTE.
UNCERTAINTY IN POPS/WX LATE MONDAY AFTN INTO MONDAY EVENING BUT
GENERALLY EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER DUE TO MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND
DRYING THAT MOVES OVERHEAD IN WAKE OF PRIMARY SHORTWAVE. LIKELY WILL
BE LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...THOUGH SSW BLYR WINDS DO NOT FAVOR
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS SINCE THAT PROVIDES MINIMAL TRAJECTORIES OFF
THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FM THE GREAT LAKES. GIVEN THE SSW WINDS ALSO
DIMINISHED FOG ON THE LAND AREAS...AT LEAST AWAY FM LK MICHIGAN AND
THE OPEN WATERS OF LK SUPERIOR. NAM INDICATES ENOUGH ADDITIONAL MID-
LEVEL MOSITURE MOVES IN BY EVENING TO COMBINE WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE CONVECTION. SINCE NAM IS ONLY MODEL
INDICATING THIS AT PRESENT...WILL DISCOUNT THAT IDEA AND CONTINUE TO
DOWNPLAY POPS. TEMPS ON MONDAY DEPEND ON EXTENT OF CLEARING. WILL
NOT TAKE MUCH TO BOOST TEMPS WITH WARM TEMPS ALOFT IN WARM SECTOR OF
SFC LOW THAT WILL BE NW OF LK SUPERIOR BY 00Z TUE. MIXING TO H9
RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S...SO INCREASED MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY.
LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MAIN FRONT SWINGS ACROSS UPPER
GREAT LAKES AS SFC LOW TRACKS NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR. VARYING IDEAS ON
STRENGTH AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT. GFS MOST AGRESSIVE WITH THAT IDEA WHERE ECMWF AND GEM ARE NOT
AS BULLISH. KEPT IT SIMPLE AND RETAINED LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF FRONT MOVING THROUGH. BASED ON SW H85 THETA-E ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND AT LEAST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF ELEVATED
CAPE...ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER OVER EAST HALF OF CWA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...KEPT THE FOG GOING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEAR LK MICHIGAN AT LEAST FOR THE MORNING ON
TUESDAY. ENOUGH DRYING DEVELOPS LATER IN THE DAY TO DISSIPATE THE
FOG. TEMPS ON TUESDAY COOLEST OVER NW CWA AND NEAR LK MICHIGAN WITH
MORE PRONOUNCED ONSHORE FLOW. EVEN FOR THOSE AREAS THOUGH...TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE 60S. MAX TEMPS REACH MID 70S INLAND TOWARD WI BORDER.
REST OF EXTENDED INDICATES MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
ANOTHER FRONT BRINGING SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
BASED ON LATEST ECMWF WHICH TRENDED TOWARD LAST COUPLE RUNS OF
GFS...APPEARS THAT NEXT WEEKEND WOULD BE DRIER AS MORE ACTIVE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
KEPT LOW CHANCES THAT CONSENSUS GAVE ATTM...BUT IF THESE MODEL
TRENDS CONTINUE...LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE POPS FM NEXT
SATURDAY. OVERALL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL.
GIVEN THE LACK OF REAL COOLING AT H85 OTHER THAN WITH THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY...COULD SEE TEMPS MOST DAYS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY PUSH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID-UPR 70S.
NIGHTTIME LOWS SHOULD STAY SAFELY ABOVE FREEZING...WITH MAINLY 40S
TO AROUND 50 DEGREES EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPS MOVE BACK IN NEXT
WEEKEND AS COOLER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015
GUSTY WINDS AT SAW AND ESPECIALLY CMX WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE PRES GRADENT WEAKENS BEHIND A DEPARTING WEAK TROUGH.
OTHERWISE...ALTHOUGH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS THE LOW LEVELS
REMAIN DRY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015
SW-W WINDS TO 25 KTS...EVEN GREATER THAN 30 KTS AT HIGHER LEVEL
OBSERVATION PLATFORMS...DIMINISHES THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS THEN
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KTS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING TO 20-25 KTS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS TO NORTHWEST LK SUPERIOR. STRONGEST WINDS
SHOULD OCCUR ON MONDAY OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS WILL
TURN NORTHEAST DUE TO FUNNELLING. FOG SHOULD DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND THIS WILL LINGER OVER MUCH OF LK SUPERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. FOG MAY BECOME DENSE AT TIMES. WINDS BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT
DIMINISH TO 20 KTS OR LESS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
704 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
.UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
TODAY HAS BEEN ABOUT AS MUCH OF A WASHOUT AS YOU CAN GET AS AN
ISENTROPICALLY FORCED RAIN SHIELD LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TO THE
NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT THIS AFTERNOON WAS APPROACHING I-80 DOWN
IN IOWA. MODELS OF BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC AND CAM VARIETY ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS BAND SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE STALLING OUT OVERNIGHT FROM WEST CENTRAL MN OVER TOWARD NW WI
AS A SFC LOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER SRN MN AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS INTO THE STATE. FOLLOWED THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE HOPWRF
MEMBERS AND HRRR WITH THE POPS IN BRINGING SOME LOW CHANCE POPS UP
THROUGH ABOUT THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS A DRY PERIOD LOOKS
TO GET ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS A MONTEVIDEO/TWIN CITIES/EAU CLAIRE LINE.
WHERE A FAIR DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY LIES IS WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THIS
BAND OF RAIN LIFTS NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND THE STRONG SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OK MOVES TOWARD WI. THERE
SHOULD BE A BAND OF MOD TO HEAVY RAIN THAT LIFTS NORTH WITH THIS
WAVE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...BUT WHERE IT GOES IS
WHERE THE UNCERTAINTY LIES. THE GFS AND CANADIAN BRING THIS BAND
ACROSS WRN WI WHILE THE NAM/ECMWF TAKE IT MORE TOWARD GREEN BAY. THE
SHORT TERM MODELS...WHICH NOW END MONDAY MORNING WOULD FAVOR THE ERN
SOLUTION BEING CORRECT. IF THAT IS THAT CASE...THEN A DRY SLOT WILL
RESULT IN A DRY MEMORIAL DAY OUTSIDE OF THE PERSISTENT RAIN BAND
ACROSS CENTRAL MN. THE GFS/CANADIAN SOLUTION WOULD HAVE YET ANOTHER
WASHOUT FOR FOLKS IN WRN WI. HARD TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BET WET OR
DRY...SO JUST REDUCED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY IN OUR EAST
MONDAY MORNING GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
OTHER CHANGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WAS TO REMOVE MOST OF THE THUNDER
MENTION AS WE JUST DO NOT SEE ANY INSTABILITY DEVELOP. THE LONE
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MN MONDAY AFTERNOON WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND 70...ALLOWING FOR A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG OF CAPE TO DEVELOP. CAMS ALSO SHOW THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
FIRING OFF STORMS IN WRN IOWA MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY START
GETTING NEAR THE I-90 CORRIDOR BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
FOR TEMPERATURES...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES PRETTY MUCH STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR HIGHS
TOMORROW...WITH CONTINUED LIGHT RAIN AND CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL MN
EXPECTED...DID DROP HIGHS DOWN TO JUST THE LOW 60S THERE...WHILE THE
RETURN OF SW WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON IN SRN MN SHOULD ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM CLOSER TO LATE MAY NORMALS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
WE PICK UP THE LONG TERM ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION ABOVE MENTIONED THE THREAT FOR THUNDER IN FAR SOUTHERN
MN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO EXACTLY
HOW FAR NORTH STORMS WILL END UP. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG
THE 12Z AND 18Z GUIDANCE THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL MAKE IT INTO
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TOMORROW WITH WEAK TO MODERATE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ARRIVING IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 21Z-
00Z. THE AVAILABLE CAM GUIDANCE /WRF-ARW...WRF-NMM...NAM NEST/
SUPPORTS A HEALTHY EAST-WEST ORIENTATED LINE OF CONVECTION
BREAKING OUT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON SOMEWHERE NEAR THE IA/MN IN
RESPONSE TO BUILDING INSTABILITY AND THE ARRIVAL OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
CAN`T RE RULED OUT AT THIS POINT.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOW TO CLEAR THE EASTERN FORECAST ON
TUESDAY...SO WE FELT IT WAS BEST TO LINGER THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI UNTIL BUILDING
HEIGHTS KICK THE FRONT TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THEREFORE...THE MIDDLE OF THIS COMING WEEK LOOKS DRY AT THE
MOMENT. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ANOTHER TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH MN/WI
LATE IN THE WEEK. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COULD SEE A COUPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN FALL GIVEN
ANOTHER SLOW FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL MN/NORTHERN WI WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD TONIGHT...BUT IFR CIGS/VISBYS WILL FOLLOW UP FROM THE
SOUTH. THE LOW CIGS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY
MORNING AS A WEAK TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI
MONDAY MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD LIFT CEILINGS TO
MVFR/VFR LEVELS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
KMSP...
SEE MORE OF A DRIZZLE SCENARIO FOR MSP FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
PRECIP SHOULD END AROUND 04Z TONIGHT...BUT LOW CLOUDS WILL STICK
AROUND THROUGH THE MONDAY MORNING RUSH. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE
TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT FROM EASTERLY TO WESTERLY...SO HOPEFULLY
THIS CAN GET PINNED DOWN IN SUBSEQUENT ISSUANCES. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN MONDAY EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS SW AT 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS SW AT 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR WITH SHRA/-TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SE AT 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...JRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
553 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND MOST OF THE NIGHT BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. SO...AS OF RIGHT NOW WERE
ARE IN A RELATIVELY LULL IN THE PRECIP AFTER AN AREA OF LIGHT
SHOWERS AFFECTED PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY /WITH JUST ENOUGH TO WET THE GROUND IN SPOTS/.
AS OF THIS AFTERNOON...THE LOCAL AREA IS UNDER A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AN OVERCAST ALTOSTRATUS DECK. THERE IS
WEAK 850MB FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH...BUT MN/WI IS LARGELY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION AT THE MOMENT. THERE
IS...HOWEVER...WARMING BETWEEN 850-700MB ACROSS NE/IA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS LIKELY THE BEGINNING OF THE WARMER THETA-E
PLUME EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH OVERNIGHT AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN
TO THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. BETWEEN 12-14Z THE RAP BRINGS
BETWEEN 100-150 UNITS OF 925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MN. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE THE LEADING EDGE OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS /PERHAPS WITH EMBEDDED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS/. THE THREAT FOR
VIGOROUS CONVECTION TOMORROW IS LOW...BECAUSE WE SIMPLY STRUGGLE
TO GET MUCH OF ANY ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN HERE TOMORROW. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES DO STEEPEN ACROSS IA/NE...BUT LOCALLY IT IS
PROBABLY JUST GOING TO AMOUNT TO A NICE PERSISTENT STRATIFORM RAIN
TOMORROW.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
FINALLY BEGINNING TO GET A BIT MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE GUIDANCE ON
HOW THINGS WILL UNFOLD DURING THE LONG TERM. IT WILL START OFF ON A
WET NOTE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS COMING
THROUGH THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.
WE WILL START THINGS OFF WITH THE STRONGEST SHORTWAVE OF THE WEEKEND
WORKING NORTH ACROSS MN. THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS WITH A 50 KT LLJ COMING
UP TO THE EAST SIDE OF A SFC LOW THAT WILL BE TRACKING DUE NORTH TO
THE WEST OF I-35. THIS WILL BRING A HEAVY BAND OF RAIN THROUGH THE
AREA AS PWATS INCREASE TO OVER 1.5". THE ONLY MODEL FOR THIS EVENT
THAT LOOKS TO BE AVOIDED AT THIS POINT IS THE GFS...AS IT HAS
STARTED OFF TOO FAR EAST WITH PRECIPITATION TODAY AND CONTINUES TO
BE AN EASTERN OUTLIER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS ASIDE...REST OF THE
MODELS SHOW AN AREA WIDE PRECIP EVENT UNFOLDING FROM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH JUST ABOUT EVERYONE LOOKING TO
GET IN ON 0.75" TO 1.25" OF RAIN FROM LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. ONE THING THAT IS LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM WHEN LOOKING AT
SOUNDINGS IS INSTABILITY...AS A RESULT...CAPPED THUNDER MENTION TO
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS THIS
LOOKS TO PRIMARILY BE A RAIN EVENT.
FOR MONDAY...IT IS BEGINNING TO LOOK DRIER...ESPECIALLY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...WHERE POPS WERE CUT BACK SIGNIFICANTLY. DURING THE DAY...THE
WAVE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE ABOUT A 1000MB SFC LOW MOVING INTO
NRN MN. IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING WAVE...A DRY SLOT AND SHORT WAVE
RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MPX AREA...WHICH MAY PRETTY MUCH CUT
OFF THE PRECIP FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. FOR MONDAY EVENING...WHEN THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BECOME ACTIVE...SAID FRONT WILL BE OFF
OVER WI...WITH MOST OF THAT PRECIPITATION OFF TO THE EAST WHILE THE
DEFORMATION PRECIP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SFC LOW LOOKS TO LARGELY
FALL TO THE N/NW OF THE MPX AREA. THIS WAS A PRETTY BIG CHANGE FROM
EARLIER MODEL RUNS AND THEREFORE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH
PRETTY MUCH HAD AREA WIDE LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT...SO TRIED TO
CUT A MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THIS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO KEEP
FROM HAVING SUCH A DRASTIC CHANGE...WHICH BASICALLY MEANS WE CUT
POPS IN HALF ON MONDAY NIGHT...WITH JUST CHANCE POPS LEFT AT THIS
POINT.
FOR TUESDAY...WE WILL HAVE A BAGGY SFC PRESSURE PATTERN IN
PLACE...BUT SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY...WHICH MAY HELP GENERATE
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY...SO HAVE
MAINTAINED SOME 20/30 POPS FOR THAT DAY. DID REMOVE ANY REMAINING
POPS THOUGH FOR WEDNESDAY WITH ALL GUIDANCE NOW DRY AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
FOR THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE LATTER BEING THE FASTER OF THE TWO...BOTH
CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER FRONT WORKING ACROSS THE AREA WITH A ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING THIS FOR A FEW DAYS...SO HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LIKELY POPS
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
TO END THE EXTENDED...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A RATHER POTENT COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOOKING
AT THE HEMISPHERIC H5 FORECASTS...IT ACTUALLY MAKES PHYSICAL SENSE
TO SEE A STRONG FRONT COMING THROUGH AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW THE UPPER AIR PATTERN TAKING ON A DECIDEDLY -NAO/-
AO PATTERN AS HIGH HEIGHTS MOVE OVER THE NORTH POLE...WITH
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LOWS MOVING SOUTH OUT OF THE ARCTIC. THIS
PATTERN...EVEN IN EARLY SUMMER WOULD ALLOW COLD AIR TO GET DISLODGED
FROM THE ARCTIC AND THAT IS WHAT BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS SHOW FOR NEXT
WEEKEND AS A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS WORKS DOWN IN THE FORM OF A
1030+ MB HIGH WITH DEWPS BACK IN THE 20S/30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 554 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
SPOTTY SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL PESTER THE TAF AREA
THIS EVENING...BUT HAVE NO IMPACT ON CIGS/VSBYS. THE MAIN BATCH OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MN/IA BORDER AROUND DAYBREAK
SUNDAY...THEN EXPAND NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON. EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO DEGRADE TO MVFR WITHIN 3-4
HOURS OF PRECIP ONSET. HAVE NOT INCLUDED A THUNDER MENTION BECAUSE
INSTABILITY PROGS INDICATE A VERY MINIMAL THREAT. AFTER SQUIRRELY
WINDS TO START THE PERIOD /ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARIES IN THE
AREA/...SHOULD SEE WINDS LATCH ON TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTIONAL
COMPONENT FOR TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASING ABOVE 10KTS ON SUNDAY
MORNING.
KMSP...
THE NORTHERLY WIND SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT TO EASTERLY FOR
TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST/SOUTHEAST FOR
SUNDAY...WITH GUSTS TO 18KTS. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE VCTY
OF THE FIELD DURING THE MORNING...BUT THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS
/WITH MVFR CIGS-VSBYS/ SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND/AFTER 17Z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. WINDS S
10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. CHC SHRA/-TSRA. WINDS SW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...LS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
433 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND MOST OF THE NIGHT BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. SO...AS OF RIGHT NOW WERE
ARE IN A RELATIVELY LULL IN THE PRECIP AFTER AN AREA OF LIGHT
SHOWERS AFFECTED PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY /WITH JUST ENOUGH TO WET THE GROUND IN SPOTS/.
AS OF THIS AFTERNOON...THE LOCAL AREA IS UNDER A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AN OVERCAST ALTOSTRATUS DECK. THERE IS
WEAK 850MB FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH...BUT MN/WI IS LARGELY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION AT THE MOMENT. THERE
IS...HOWEVER...WARMING BETWEEN 850-700MB ACROSS NE/IA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS LIKELY THE BEGINNING OF THE WARMER THETA-E
PLUME EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH OVERNIGHT AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN
TO THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. BETWEEN 12-14Z THE RAP BRINGS
BETWEEN 100-150 UNITS OF 925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MN. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE THE LEADING EDGE OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS /PERHAPS WITH EMBEDDED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS/. THE THREAT FOR
VIGOROUS CONVECTION TOMORROW IS LOW...BECAUSE WE SIMPLY STRUGGLE
TO GET MUCH OF ANY ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN HERE TOMORROW. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES DO STEEPEN ACROSS IA/NE...BUT LOCALLY IT IS
PROBABLY JUST GOING TO AMOUNT TO A NICE PERSISTENT STRATIFORM RAIN
TOMORROW.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
FINALLY BEGINNING TO GET A BIT MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE GUIDANCE ON
HOW THINGS WILL UNFOLD DURING THE LONG TERM. IT WILL START OFF ON A
WET NOTE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS COMING
THROUGH THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.
WE WILL START THINGS OFF WITH THE STRONGEST SHORTWAVE OF THE WEEKEND
WORKING NORTH ACROSS MN. THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS WITH A 50 KT LLJ COMING
UP TO THE EAST SIDE OF A SFC LOW THAT WILL BE TRACKING DUE NORTH TO
THE WEST OF I-35. THIS WILL BRING A HEAVY BAND OF RAIN THROUGH THE
AREA AS PWATS INCREASE TO OVER 1.5". THE ONLY MODEL FOR THIS EVENT
THAT LOOKS TO BE AVOIDED AT THIS POINT IS THE GFS...AS IT HAS
STARTED OFF TOO FAR EAST WITH PRECIPITATION TODAY AND CONTINUES TO
BE AN EASTERN OUTLIER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS ASIDE...REST OF THE
MODELS SHOW AN AREA WIDE PRECIP EVENT UNFOLDING FROM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH JUST ABOUT EVERYONE LOOKING TO
GET IN ON 0.75" TO 1.25" OF RAIN FROM LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. ONE THING THAT IS LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM WHEN LOOKING AT
SOUNDINGS IS INSTABILITY...AS A RESULT...CAPPED THUNDER MENTION TO
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS THIS
LOOKS TO PRIMARILY BE A RAIN EVENT.
FOR MONDAY...IT IS BEGINNING TO LOOK DRIER...ESPECIALLY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...WHERE POPS WERE CUT BACK SIGNIFICANTLY. DURING THE DAY...THE
WAVE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE ABOUT A 1000MB SFC LOW MOVING INTO
NRN MN. IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING WAVE...A DRY SLOT AND SHORT WAVE
RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MPX AREA...WHICH MAY PRETTY MUCH CUT
OFF THE PRECIP FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. FOR MONDAY EVENING...WHEN THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BECOME ACTIVE...SAID FRONT WILL BE OFF
OVER WI...WITH MOST OF THAT PRECIPITATION OFF TO THE EAST WHILE THE
DEFORMATION PRECIP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SFC LOW LOOKS TO LARGELY
FALL TO THE N/NW OF THE MPX AREA. THIS WAS A PRETTY BIG CHANGE FROM
EARLIER MODEL RUNS AND THEREFORE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH
PRETTY MUCH HAD AREA WIDE LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT...SO TRIED TO
CUT A MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THIS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO KEEP
FROM HAVING SUCH A DRASTIC CHANGE...WHICH BASICALLY MEANS WE CUT
POPS IN HALF ON MONDAY NIGHT...WITH JUST CHANCE POPS LEFT AT THIS
POINT.
FOR TUESDAY...WE WILL HAVE A BAGGY SFC PRESSURE PATTERN IN
PLACE...BUT SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY...WHICH MAY HELP GENERATE
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY...SO HAVE
MAINTAINED SOME 20/30 POPS FOR THAT DAY. DID REMOVE ANY REMAINING
POPS THOUGH FOR WEDNESDAY WITH ALL GUIDANCE NOW DRY AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
FOR THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE LATTER BEING THE FASTER OF THE TWO...BOTH
CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER FRONT WORKING ACROSS THE AREA WITH A ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING THIS FOR A FEW DAYS...SO HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LIKELY POPS
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
TO END THE EXTENDED...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A RATHER POTENT COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOOKING
AT THE HEMISPHERIC H5 FORECASTS...IT ACTUALLY MAKES PHYSICAL SENSE
TO SEE A STRONG FRONT COMING THROUGH AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW THE UPPER AIR PATTERN TAKING ON A DECIDEDLY -NAO/-
AO PATTERN AS HIGH HEIGHTS MOVE OVER THE NORTH POLE...WITH
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LOWS MOVING SOUTH OUT OF THE ARCTIC. THIS
PATTERN...EVEN IN EARLY SUMMER WOULD ALLOW COLD AIR TO GET DISLODGED
FROM THE ARCTIC AND THAT IS WHAT BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS SHOW FOR NEXT
WEEKEND AS A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS WORKS DOWN IN THE FORM OF A
1030+ MB HIGH WITH DEWPS BACK IN THE 20S/30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
EVEN WITH THESE LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...LITTLE TO IMPACTS TO CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
SHOULD BE EXPECTED. VFR SHOULD PERSIST INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE WINDS HAVE BEEN TRICKY TODAY...VARIABLE AT
MANY LOCATIONS. IN GENERAL...WE EXPECT A LIGHT E-SE FLOW TO
DEVELOP AT MOST SITES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. MANY SITES ARE
ALREADY THERE...BUT EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI HAS BEEN SLOW TO
MAKE THE CHANGE OVER. TOMORROW LOOKS RAINY AND WE COULD START TO
SEE MORE SITES PICK UP MVRF CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. THUNDER IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW...BUT WILL NOT
BE WIDESPREAD.
KMSP...
THE WIND DIRECTION HAS BEEN THE CHALLENGE OF THE TAF TODAY. WINDS
ARE TRICKY IN SITUATIONS LIKE THIS WHERE THE AIRPORTS SHOW
DIVERGING WINDS AT THE SURFACE. IN THESE CASES...THE WINDS ARE
OFTEN LIGHT AND HAVE LOTS OF VARIABILITY IN DIRECTION. THE LAST 30
MINUTES HAVE SHOWN MORE OF A TENDENCY OF A NORTHEAST DIRECTION.
SO OUR BEST EDUCATED GUESS AT THIS POINT IS FOR A N-NE-E-SE
TRANSITION TO THE WINDS OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS AND IN GENERAL
THE SPEED SHOULD BE UNDER 7-8KTS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. WINDS S
10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. CHC SHRA/-TSRA. WINDS SW 10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...CLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS JACKSON MS
855 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
.UPDATE...FIRST OFF...WANTED TO CONFIRM THAT TORNADO WATCH #204 HAS
INDEED EXPIRED FOR ALL OF OUR COVERAGE REGION. IT WAS LOCALLY
EXTENDED FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO OUR SOUTH BY THE NEW ORLEANS
OFFICE...WHICH RESULTED IN SOME CONFUSION.
BUT DESPITE THE WATCH EXPIRING FOR OUR REGION THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...THUNDERSTORMS AND EVEN A LINGERING POTENTIAL
FOR A STRAY SEVERE STORM WILL REMAIN WELL INTO TONIGHT. CURRENT
ANALYSIS REVEALS IMPRESSIVE NORTHWARD GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT UP
(AND A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF) THE MS RIVER AXIS WITH A SLOW MOVING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES (VERY HIGH FOR
THE DATE) ARE COINCIDENT WITH THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS AND THE
JUXTAPOSITION OF MOISTURE...LIFT...AND INSTABILITY WILL BRING
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS WELL INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE
HEART OF OUR REGION. SHEAR LEVELS ARE SUCH THAT EVEN WITH MLCAPE
VALUES UNDER 1000 J/KG A STRAY SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND
INDEED MANY STORMS WILL CONTAIN WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.
FORTUNATELY...LATEST HRRR HIRES OUTPUT SUGGESTS AXIS OF HEAVIEST
RAIN (AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT) ASSOCIATED WITH SAID TROUGH WILL
ADVANCE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY BE
EXITING TO THE EAST BY DAYBREAK. IF THIS AXIS WERE EXPECTED TO STALL
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ISSUES OVERNIGHT WOULD GO WAY UP...BUT
EVEN WITH THAT NOT ANTICIPATED THERE IS STILL SOME POSSIBILITY OF
FLASH FLOODING (WHICH WAS MENTIONED IN THE UPDATED HWO). /BB/
&&
.AVIATION...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT AND SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BRING BRIEF
POTENTIAL FOR CEILINGS AND VIS RESTRICTION IFR OR WORSE. EXPECT
ADDITIONAL NUMEROUS STORMS TOMORROW (ESPECIALLY LATE) WITH OF COURSE
POTENTIAL HAZARDS FOR EXCLUSIVELY VFR TRAFFIC. /BB/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND AIDED BY BROAD UPPER TROUGHING OVER
THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE COUNTRY AND A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING
THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WHILE CONVECTION HASN`T BEEN
PARTICULARLY DEEP SO FAR TODAY...SOME OF THE STORMS HAVE STILL BEEN
EFFICIENT WIND PRODUCERS. TORNADO WATCH 204 HAS BEEN POSTED FOR ALL
OF OUR LA PARISHES/AR COUNTIES AND PORTIONS OF WEST/CENTRAL MS.
HOWEVER THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE ON THE LOW END...
ESPECIALLY WITH EASTWARD EXTENT. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS
RATHER MARGINAL SRH AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA...WITH NEITHER EXPECTED TO SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS PER SPC SSEO/RECENT RAP RUNS. BUFR SOUNDING ANALYSIS/VWPS
ARE MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL. HOWEVER DEEP LAYER/EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS
INCREASING OVER MUCH OF THE DELTA...SO THERE IS GREATER CONCERN FOR
POTENTIAL DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING.
EVEN AS THE SHORTWAVE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION...SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY AS MID/UPPER
FLOW WILL BE NEARLY MERIDIONAL THUS NOT GIVING ACTIVITY MUCH OF AN
EASTWARD PUSH OUT OF OUR AREA. ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL SWING
ACROSS THE LOWER PLAINS/MS VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING SOME POSSIBILITY FOR A
TORNADO OR TWO WOULD BE ACROSS THE DELTA...WHERE THE BEST OVERLAY OF
STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND HELICITY IS PROGGED. SIMILARLY WE MAY
SOME CONVECTION BECOME REINVIGORATED FARTHER EAST ACROSS A LARGER
PORTION OF THE CWA DURING THE DAYTIME TUESDAY AS STRONGER FORCING
SPREADS EASTWARD.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS PWATS INCREASE TO
AROUND 1 3/4 INCH. IT APPEARS WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW ENOUGH
TO PRECLUDE A NOTABLE FLOOD THREAT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER
FLOODING COULD BECOME A GREATER CONCERN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST (PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 2 IN) AND
THE GROUND WILL HAVE BECOME MORE SATURATED DUE TO RAIN FROM
TODAY/TONIGHT. /DL/
LONG TERM...AS WE GO INTO THE REST OF THE PERIOD WE WILL SEE SOME
HEIGHT RISES AS WE GO TOWARD A MORE DIURNAL DRIVEN REGIME FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION. THE MEAN RIDGE WILL FLUCTUATE
SOME DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD./17/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 71 81 70 81 / 87 62 46 76
MERIDIAN 69 80 69 80 / 46 63 40 79
VICKSBURG 71 84 71 81 / 95 60 67 79
HATTIESBURG 71 81 71 82 / 62 71 42 73
NATCHEZ 71 84 71 81 / 90 66 66 77
GREENVILLE 70 83 70 80 / 89 69 74 78
GREENWOOD 71 83 70 79 / 92 66 58 79
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
BB/DL/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
928 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015
.UPDATE...
A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN MONTANA WITH A SECOND LOW OVER
EASTERN UTAH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. RADAR SHOWING A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR WEST AND FAR EASTERN AREAS WITH MOVEMENT
BASICALLY EAST TO WEST DUE TO THE UPPER LOWS CIRCULATION.
SATELLITE IS SHOWING A NARROW BREAK IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS
ROSEBUD...TREASURE...NORTHERN BIG HORN AND EASTERN YELLOWSTONE
COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS
MORNING FOR THESE AREAS BUT CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING AND
SOUTHEAST MONTANA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY AFTERNOON.
THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY STAYING WEST OF
BILLINGS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WITH ACTIVITY POPPING UP BY MID
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SMALL
HAIL DUE TO LOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TODAY.
UPDATE THIS MORNING WAS TO LESSEN PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR
EAST AND TO CLEAR OUT SKIES SOME FOR THE EAST AND CENTRAL AREAS.
UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN SENT. HOOLEY
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...
BROAD TROUGHING WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL LEND TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE FORM
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
AN UPPER LOW WITHIN THE BROAD TROUGH WAS SITTING OVER SOUTHEAST
UTAH THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY SLIDE TOWARD SOUTHEAST
COLORADO BY TONIGHT. WEAKER ENERGY WILL ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM WYOMING AS IT GETS EJECTED OFF OF THE MAIN LOW. THIS
COMBINED WITH WEAK DIFFLUENT FLOW AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
WITH BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS. INSTABILITY WAS NOT
GREAT BUT ENOUGH FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...SIMILAR TO FRIDAY.
RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
SMALL HAIL. WEAK STEERING WINDS WOULD ALSO LEAD TO SLOW MOVING
CELLS AND THUS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. STORMS WILL BE PULSY IN NATURE
AND THUS SHOULD NOT BE TERRIBLY STRONG.
THE UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL CREEP INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ALL HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS AS PWATS RISE TO AROUND AN INCH OVER
SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THE GFS WAS DEEPER WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
THE MAIN UPPER LOW...AND FARTHER WEST IN PLACEMENT. THUS...THE GFS
WAS HEAVIER IN QPF TOTALS COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. HIGH PWATS OVER
THE EAST WOULD LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN. THE AXIS OF
HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO BE EAST OF A FORSYTH TO SHERIDAN LINE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COOLER COMPARED TO FRIDAY WITH
ADDED CLOUD COVER. A SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA
WILL PULL IN EVEN COOLER AIR FOR SUNDAY. TWH
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...
MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT A GENERALLY UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE
EXTENDED. MONDAY WILL SEE SOME WEAK RIDGING WORKING INTO THE
AREA...SLOWLY DISPLACING THE WEEKEND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SOME
INSTABILITY WILL WRAP AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...WHICH
WILL GIVE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA A CHANCE OF RAIN...WITH
BETTER CHANCES CLOSER TO SOUTH DAKOTA. THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
BE IN A WEAKLY RIDGY PATTERN TUESDAY...BUT AS THE THE PATTERN
BEGINS SHIFTING INTO AN UNSETTLED SOUTHWESTERLY PATTERN THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS WILL AGAIN SEE A CHANCE AT PRECIP DURING THE
AFTERNOON TUESDAY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED IS DOMINATED BY A TROUGH SETTING
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE AREA REMAINING IN UNSETTLED
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL GIVE DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN AS
WEAK SHORTWAVES STREAM ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A SLOWER SOLUTION...ALONG THE LINES OF THE
00Z GFS FROM YESTERDAY...FOR THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH. LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE EASTERLY THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...WHICH
WILL GIVE THE AREA DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND BY MIDWEEK
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN
INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE IS SOME CAPE THAT DEVELOPS
DURING THE AFTERNOONS SO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
REIMER
&&
.AVIATION...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST TO WEST WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS TO FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS FROM SHERIDAN TO LIVINGSTON THROUGH 18Z. THIS AFTERNOON
WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL PRODUCE
LOCAL IFR VISIBILITY AND MVFR CEILINGS. AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT AREAS
THAT SAW ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE FAVORED FOR STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CHAMBERS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 065 045/062 045/069 047/071 048/070 048/069 047/064
3/T 24/T 32/T 23/T 33/T 33/T 33/T
LVM 060 041/061 039/068 044/068 043/065 043/068 042/064
6/T 43/T 33/T 34/T 44/T 43/T 33/T
HDN 067 046/063 045/069 046/074 048/072 048/072 047/066
3/T 35/T 43/T 23/T 33/T 33/T 33/T
MLS 067 045/062 047/067 046/073 049/072 049/070 048/065
3/T 46/T 45/T 22/T 33/T 32/T 23/T
4BQ 063 046/059 046/066 044/072 048/071 049/069 047/064
3/T 67/T 55/T 22/T 34/T 43/T 33/T
BHK 061 045/060 045/064 044/070 047/069 047/067 045/062
3/T 67/T 66/T 32/T 34/T 43/T 33/T
SHR 061 043/056 042/064 042/069 045/068 045/068 044/064
4/T 46/T 44/T 24/T 43/T 33/T 33/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
959 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
THERE HAS NOT BEEN A LOT OF PCPN AROUND THIS EVENING...IT HAS BEEN
MOSTLY VERY LIGHT AND ISOLATED. WE DO EXPECT AT LEAST SOME INCREASE
IN PCPN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...SIMILAR TO RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR.
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL OFF MUCH
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. A VERY WEAK
WARM FRONT HAD LIFTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS THIS MORNING...BUT THOSE HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WERE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS...AND THIS WILL THE PRIMARY ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE EVENING. INSTABILITY IS AGAIN MARGINAL TODAY AND THIS
WILL MOSTLY BE SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE
HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. THE BETTER FORCING AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AS A UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE RAP KEEPS THE BEST
PRECIP CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...AS WELL AS
WESTERN NEBRASKA CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. WILL PLAY POPS THAT WAY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT...WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS
THE REGION...AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...SCATTERED SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AS A REINFORCING WARM FRONT MOVES INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. AGAIN...SHOULD MOSTLY BE SHOWERS...BUT
A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE AND WEAKLY NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES
COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
OTHER THAN SOME MINOR POP MODIFICATIONS...GOING FCST LOOKS ON TRACK
THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. FORTUNATELY MODELS ARE IN QUITE GOOD
AGREEMENT BULK OF ACCUMULATING PCPN WILL BE FOUND WELL EAST OF THE
CWA. NEVERTHELESS...POTENTIAL FOR SOME PCPN WILL STILL EXIST EARLY
ON IN THE FCST PD.
BEGINNING MONDAY AFTN...MODELS IN AGREEMENT ADVERTISING
INCREASING BNDRY LYR THETA-E ADVECTION COUPLED WITH VIGOROUS
LITTLE VORT MAX WILL ALLOW FOR QUICK ENVIRONMENTAL DESTABILIZATION
OVER THE REGION. CONVECTIVE INITIATION ENSUES JUST NW OF THE CWA
ALONG AXIS OF LLVL THETA-E CONVG/INVERTED SFC TROF BEFORE ACTIVITY
QUICKLY EXPANDS EWD INTO THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING...EXPECT PCPN TO EXIT THE CWA AS UPPER VORT
MAX TAKES BEST LIFT/MOISTURE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
TURNING TO WEDNESDAY...UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS
WILL FINALLY BRING PLEASANT CONDITIONS BACK THE REGION WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND HIGHS TOPPING OUT AROUND 80.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
LARGE SCALE FLOW PER ECM/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND SHOWING A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS
GRADUALLY MIGRATING EAST AND EVENTUALLY REACHING THE CNTRL PLAINS ON
FRIDAY. CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE ON TAP THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED
PDS IN RESPONSE TO PROLONGED MOIST UPGLIDE AND INCREASING UPPER
SUPPORT VIA APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROF. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THRU FRIDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND HIGHS ONLY IN
THE MID/UPPER 60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 953 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH VFR CIGS AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH HIGH
DEWPOINTS AND AN INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL JET LATER TONIGHT/CONTINUED
THETA-E ADVECTION/OMEGA...SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS/DRIZZLE DEVELOP
WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS. IMPROVING CIGS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
907 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
THERE HAS NOT BEEN A LOT OF PCPN AROUND THIS EVENING...IT HAS BEEN
MOSTLY VERY LIGHT AND ISOLATED. WE DO EXPECT AT LEAST SOME INCREASE
IN PCPN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...SIMILAR TO RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR.
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL OFF MUCH
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. A VERY WEAK
WARM FRONT HAD LIFTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS THIS MORNING...BUT THOSE HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WERE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS...AND THIS WILL THE PRIMARY ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE EVENING. INSTABILITY IS AGAIN MARGINAL TODAY AND THIS
WILL MOSTLY BE SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE
HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. THE BETTER FORCING AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AS A UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE RAP KEEPS THE BEST
PRECIP CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...AS WELL AS
WESTERN NEBRASKA CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. WILL PLAY POPS THAT WAY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT...WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS
THE REGION...AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...SCATTERED SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AS A REINFORCING WARM FRONT MOVES INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. AGAIN...SHOULD MOSTLY BE SHOWERS...BUT
A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE AND WEAKLY NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES
COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
OTHER THAN SOME MINOR POP MODIFICATIONS...GOING FCST LOOKS ON TRACK
THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. FORTUNATELY MODELS ARE IN QUITE GOOD
AGREEMENT BULK OF ACCUMULATING PCPN WILL BE FOUND WELL EAST OF THE
CWA. NEVERTHELESS...POTENTIAL FOR SOME PCPN WILL STILL EXIST EARLY
ON IN THE FCST PD.
BEGINNING MONDAY AFTN...MODELS IN AGREEMENT ADVERTISING
INCREASING BNDRY LYR THETA-E ADVECTION COUPLED WITH VIGOROUS
LITTLE VORT MAX WILL ALLOW FOR QUICK ENVIRONMENTAL DESTABILIZATION
OVER THE REGION. CONVECTIVE INITIATION ENSUES JUST NW OF THE CWA
ALONG AXIS OF LLVL THETA-E CONVG/INVERTED SFC TROF BEFORE ACTIVITY
QUICKLY EXPANDS EWD INTO THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING...EXPECT PCPN TO EXIT THE CWA AS UPPER VORT
MAX TAKES BEST LIFT/MOISTURE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
TURNING TO WEDNESDAY...UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS
WILL FINALLY BRING PLEASANT CONDITIONS BACK THE REGION WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND HIGHS TOPPING OUT AROUND 80.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
LARGE SCALE FLOW PER ECM/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND SHOWING A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS
GRADUALLY MIGRATING EAST AND EVENTUALLY REACHING THE CNTRL PLAINS ON
FRIDAY. CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE ON TAP THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED
PDS IN RESPONSE TO PROLONGED MOIST UPGLIDE AND INCREASING UPPER
SUPPORT VIA APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROF. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THRU FRIDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND HIGHS ONLY IN
THE MID/UPPER 60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
VARIABLE CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH VFR/MVFR CIGS...SOME PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES...AND GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. LATER TONIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES ACROSS KANSAS
AND THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGING THROUGH. THE SLOW
MOVING FRONT IS NEAR NORFOLK. WILL MENTION A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WITH THESE FEATURES LATER TONIGHT AND BROUGHT CIGS/VSBYS BACK
DOWN TO PREVAILING MVFR/IFR. SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
CIGS MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS
APPROACHING AND WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
708 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. A VERY WEAK
WARM FRONT HAD LIFTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS THIS MORNING...BUT THOSE HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WERE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS...AND THIS WILL THE PRIMARY ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE EVENING. INSTABILITY IS AGAIN MARGINAL TODAY AND THIS
WILL MOSTLY BE SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE
HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. THE BETTER FORCING AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AS A UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE RAP KEEPS THE BEST
PRECIP CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...AS WELL AS
WESTERN NEBRASKA CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. WILL PLAY POPS THAT WAY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT...WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS
THE REGION...AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...SCATTERED SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AS A REINFORCING WARM FRONT MOVES INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. AGAIN...SHOULD MOSTLY BE SHOWERS...BUT
A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE AND WEAKLY NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES
COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
OTHER THAN SOME MINOR POP MODIFICATIONS...GOING FCST LOOKS ON TRACK
THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. FORTUNATELY MODELS ARE IN QUITE GOOD
AGREEMENT BULK OF ACCUMULATING PCPN WILL BE FOUND WELL EAST OF THE
CWA. NEVERTHELESS...POTENTIAL FOR SOME PCPN WILL STILL EXIST EARLY
ON IN THE FCST PD.
BEGINNING MONDAY AFTN...MODELS IN AGREEMENT ADVERTISING
INCREASING BNDRY LYR THETA-E ADVECTION COUPLED WITH VIGOROUS
LITTLE VORT MAX WILL ALLOW FOR QUICK ENVIRONMENTAL DESTABILIZATION
OVER THE REGION. CONVECTIVE INITIATION ENSUES JUST NW OF THE CWA
ALONG AXIS OF LLVL THETA-E CONVG/INVERTED SFC TROF BEFORE ACTIVITY
QUICKLY EXPANDS EWD INTO THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING...EXPECT PCPN TO EXIT THE CWA AS UPPER VORT
MAX TAKES BEST LIFT/MOISTURE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
TURNING TO WEDNESDAY...UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS
WILL FINALLY BRING PLEASANT CONDITIONS BACK THE REGION WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND HIGHS TOPPING OUT AROUND 80.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
LARGE SCALE FLOW PER ECM/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND SHOWING A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS
GRADUALLY MIGRATING EAST AND EVENTUALLY REACHING THE CNTRL PLAINS ON
FRIDAY. CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE ON TAP THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED
PDS IN RESPONSE TO PROLONGED MOIST UPGLIDE AND INCREASING UPPER
SUPPORT VIA APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROF. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THRU FRIDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND HIGHS ONLY IN
THE MID/UPPER 60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
VARIABLE CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH VFR/MVFR CIGS...SOME PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES...AND GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. LATER TONIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES ACROSS KANSAS
AND THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGING THROUGH. THE SLOW
MOVING FRONT IS NEAR NORFOLK. WILL MENTION A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WITH THESE FEATURES LATER TONIGHT AND BROUGHT CIGS/VSBYS BACK
DOWN TO PREVAILING MVFR/IFR. SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
CIGS MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS
APPROACHING AND WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
306 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
TONIGHT
REGIONAL 88D MOSAIC SHOWING AREA OF TSRA OVER KS QUICKLY APPROACHING
THE SRN CWA. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE TIMING THE PCPN WITH THE LATEST INDICATING THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE ACTIVITY PUSHING INTO THE SRN CWA SOMETIME BTWN 22Z-24Z LATE
THIS AFTN. RAP13 SUGGESTING RATHER STRONG 305K UPGLIDE/INFLUX OF
MOISTURE SHOULD AID IN MAINTAINING THE PCPN ACTIVITY THEN THRU THE
MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL AT
BEST...THUS EXPECT ANY THUNDER TO BE ISOLATED IN NATURE.
AT THIS POINT...VERY GOOD AGREEMENT SEEN BTWN THE HRRR/RAP13/AWR-NMM
WITH HIGHEST QPF FOUND OVER THE SRN CWA WHERE MAX OMEGA WILL BE
REALIZED OVERNIGHT. GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONGST THE SHORT TERM MODELS
GIVE AMOUNTS GENERALLY AROUND 1.5" BY 12Z SUN SOUTH OF THE I-80
CORRIDOR. MEANWHILE OVER THE REST OF THE CWA...AMOUNTS ANYWHERE FROM
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH UP TO HALF AN INCH BY SUN MORNING LOOK
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING TO THE SOUTH LOOKS
RELATIVELY SMALL PER LATEST FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SHOWERS MAY BE ONGOING ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER SUNDAY
MORNING...MAY WANE BY LATE MORNING...BUT THEN COULD REDEVELOP BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO REGION. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO RETURN
WITH MUCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
DRY SLOT COULD ALSO AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA
WHICH COULD MAKE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PRETTY SPARSE. A SECONDARY
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT COULD BRING
A FEW STORMS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN LIFTING NORTH
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
COULD SEE PRECIP WANE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES INTO THE AREA. WITH WARM FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION...TEMPS SHOULD BE MUCH WARMER BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL BE WITHIN THE AREA WELL
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT. BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AND POTENTIAL HEAVY
RAIN APPEARS TO BE MONDAY EVENING ALONG/SOUTH OF I80.
COLD FRONT IS STILL MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY THUS STILL
HAVE A CHANCE OF PRECIP ALONG SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES WINDING DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST WEDNESDAY AS WE SHOULD IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS. NEXT TROUGH COMES OFF THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A COUPLE MORE
IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
BRINGING ADDITIONAL HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS TO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING TSRA/IFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY LIFTING THRU
KS AND INTO S-CNTRL NEB. EXPECT THE PCPN ACTIVITY TO REACH ERN NEB
LATE THIS AFTN WITH IFR CONDITIONS SETTLING IN AT ALL TAF SITES.
AT THIS POINT...APPEARS LIKELY THAT COMBINATION OF IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU ABOUT 12Z SUN MORNING...THEN
POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR TWD 18Z SUN.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEE/DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...DEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
148 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. A
VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
TO MID 30S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1034 PM EDT FRIDAY...ISOLATED LATE RAIN SHOWERS (AND HIGHER
SUMMIT SNOW SHOWERS) CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS CENTRAL VT AT
0215Z...AND IR IMAGERY INDICATES CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST MOVING INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY. STRONG LOW- LEVEL CAA CONTINUES AS WELL...WITH GUSTY NW
WINDS IN PLACE...BUT TEMPS ALREADY FALLING INTO THE MID-UPR 30S
ALONG THE INTL BORDER (36F AT NEWPORT VT AT 02Z). AS SUCH...FREEZE
WARNINGS LOOK ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING FOR EARLY AM LOWS EXPECTED IN THE FROST
ADVISORY AREA ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (WITH MODERATING
INFLUENCE OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN AND STRONGER LOW-LEVEL MIXING). FROST
MAY ACTUALLY BE MITIGATED A BIT BY CONTINUED MODERATE WINDS...BUT
MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FROST FORMATION WITH
LOWS 33-36F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ALREADY
DOWN TO -6C ALONG THE INTL BORDER PER LATEST RUC ANALYSIS...AND
SHOULD DROP TO AROUND -7 TO -8C DURING THE PRE- DAWN HOURS.
DEFINITELY A CHILLY NIGHT FOR LATE MAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN A STRONG MODERATING TREND BEGINNING ON SATURDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT FRIDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO 60S ON
SATURDAY AFTER A COLD START WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. NOT AS COLD
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE 40S.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BY
MIDWEEK. THIS SYNOPTIC SCALE SETUP WILL RESULT IN MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/STORMS. NO WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION CHC TO
LOW LIKELY POPS MONDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC
WARM FRNT. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE GOOD 5H VORT TRAVELING FROM NW
TO SE ACROSS OUR REGION...WHILE A RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB
RH MOVES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. STILL SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/EURO...BUT OVERALL IDEA OF A PERIOD
OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS GOOD. QPF WILL GENERALLY BE <0.25 FOR THIS
WARM FRONT FEATURE.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK OUR CWA IS WELL
ESTABLISHED IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED VORTS LIFT NORTH OF OUR REGION. PROGGED
925MB TEMPS RANGE BTWN 18C AND 22C DURING THIS PERIOD...SUPPORTS HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S WITH MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 90 IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN DRY SFC
CONDITIONS. THE LACK OF FORCING AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIMIT
AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS...ALONG WITH AN ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. THINKING DAILY AIRMASS TYPE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TRRN DURING THE PEAK
SURFACE HEATING. DAILY MAX CAPE VALUES RANGE BTWN 800 AND 1500
J/KG WITH SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTING PULSE TYPE STORMS DURING THE
WEDS THRU FRIDAY TIME PERIOD. OTHERWISE...BETTER CHANCES FOR
STORMS ARRIVES NEXT WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT-BKN
5000-8000 FOOT CLOUD DECK CONTNIUES TO DISSIPATE BUT STILL HANGING
IN A BIT WITH NW UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS VT. EARLY THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY
DISSIPATES OVERNIGHT LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES AT ALL TAF SITES AND
CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING IN LATER TODAY AND INCREASING TO BKN SAT NGT/SUN MRNG.
NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING AND WEST/NORTHWEST
THIS MORNING TO 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 15-22 KNOTS...HIGHEST MPV.
WINDS TURN WEST/SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 15-25
KNOTS...HIGHEST AT MSS SLOWLY DIMINSHING TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY. A PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR
WEDS...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY DRY PERIOD CONTINUES ACROSS OUR REGION WITH MANY LOCATIONS
4 TO 6 INCHES BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION YEAR TO DATE. THE LATEST
US DROUGHT MONITOR HAS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PARTS OF
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VERMONT IN MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS WITH
ABNORMALLY DRY ELSEWHERE. THESE DRY CONDITIONS HAVE PRODUCED VERY
DRY DEAD FUELS PER COORDINATION WITH VERMONT DEPT OF FOREST, PARK,
AND RECREATION. THESE DRY FUELS COMBINED WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS SATURDAY AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BETWEEN 17 AND 25% WILL INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN NOON AND 7 PM...WHILE RH`S
WILL BE THE LOWEST BETWEEN 2 PM AND 6 PM ON SATURDAY. LOCALIZED
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALIGNED SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
VERY DRY FUELS...WE WILL ISSUE AN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN...AS WINDS ARE MARGINAL AND
KEETCH BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX IS < 300 ACROSS OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CONDITIONS ABOVE ANY FIRES THAT DO OCCUR COULD
SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN INTENSELY AND BE DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN ON
SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 306 PM EDT FRIDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
LAKE CHAMPLAIN TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE
10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE
ABLE TO PUSH LAKE WINDS TO LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, IN THE 15
TO 25 KNOT RANGE, THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
THEREAFTER, A SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR LAKE
WINDS TO SUBSIDE UNDER CRITERIA TOWARDS THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT
WAVES TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE WITH A MODERATE CHOP. HIGHEST
WAVES WILL TEND TO BE IN AREAS EXPOSED TO THE NORTH.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-004-
006>008-010-012-016>019.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ002-005-009-
011.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ026-027-
029>031-034-087.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ028-035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
FIRE WEATHER...TABER
MARINE...LOCONTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1252 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
STILL LOOKING AT SOME POSSIBLE SPRINKLES ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE CLOUD COVER INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
TODAY...BUT REMAINING SOUTH OF HWY 2. RAP 850MB-700MB RELATIVE
HUMIDITY APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS CLOUD SHIELD AND
USED FOR TIMING PURPOSES. MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 70S
(POSSIBLY 80F) NORTH OF HWY 2 WITH FULL SOLAR...WITH COOLER VALUES
NEAR 70F WITH CLOUDS. DID RAISE MAX TEMPS A BIT NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
ISSUES WILL BE HOW FAR AND WHEN WILL THE PRECIP SPREAD NORTH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. LARGER UPPER TROUGH OVER UTAH/N ARIZONA THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS..AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH SOME MID CLOUDS IN THE
SRN FCST AREA THIS AFTN. OF INTEREST IS A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS IN
THE SIOUX FALLS AREA. HRRR AND A FEW OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS DO
BRING A FEW SPITS OF PRECIP NORTHEAST INTO WCNTRL MN (ALEX-ST
CLOUD AREA) LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN. TO BLEND WITH WFO MPX I
DID INSERT A FEW SPRINKLES IN OTTER TAIL AND WADENA COUNTIES LATE
MORNING INTO MID AFTN. BASED ON MOISTURE MOVING NORTH ANY SHOWERS
WILL NOT REACH THE SD/ND BORDER AREA TIL LATE THIS AFTN AND
TRIMMED POPS ACCORDINGLY FOR TODAY. TONIGHT WILL SEE A SHOWER RICK
IN THE SOUTH BUT STUBBORN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SLOWING DOWN ANY NORTHWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF MOISTURE.
SUNDAY WILL SEE DEEPER MOISTURE START TO MOVE INTO SE ND AND THEN
SPREAD NORTH DURING THE DAY. THUS HIGHER POPS...MOSTLY SOUTHERN
FCST AREA. GFS REMAINS A BIT FASTER THAN ECMWF/GEM WHICH KEEP
DVL-GFK AREA DRY THRU SUN EVE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
RAIN CHANCES SPREAD NORTH SUN NIGHT WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES MONDAY
AS UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW MOVE FROM SOUTHERN SD INTO CNTRL/SRN
MN. HIGH PRESSURE DOES REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND SOME
MODELS WANT TO KEEP FAR NW FCST AREA DRY EVEN MONDAY. AT THIS TIME
WENT WITH SUPERBLEND OF MODELS AND IDEA OF CATEGORICAL POPS FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY SE 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA. SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY...BUT VERY WEAK...SO DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
SUN NIGHT THRU MON IN THE GRIDS. PRECIP BEGINS TO MOVE EAST MON
NIGHT. AS FOR HOW MUCH RAINFALL....MOST AREAS IN THE ONE HALF TO
THREE QUARTERS INCH RANGE GFK SOUTH AND EAST AND LESS NORTHWEST.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS ALTHOUGH THEY DO ALL SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER FEATURES BECOME OUT OF
PHASE WHEN COMPARING ECMWF AND GFS...UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAY`S
SOLUTION. ECMWF HAS LONGER WAVES WITH MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW MID
WEEK WHILE GFS HANGS ON TO A DIGGING SHORTWAVE NORTH OF THE BORDER
WITH MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE KEY TO COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS.
LATEST EXTENDED SUPERBLEND SOLUTION CONTINUES WITH POPS COVERING
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA MOST OF THE TIME...ONLY ADJUSTMENT WAS TO
SMOOTH OUT MINUTE AREAS OF PCPN/NO PCPN WITHIN THE FGF CWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
CONTINUE WITH VFR CIGS/VSBY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MID LEVEL
CIGS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN FA REACHING FAR
EARLY THIS EVENING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...WJB/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1225 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
CLOUD COVER MOVING NORTH FROM SOUTH DAKOTA AND FORECAST TEMPERATURES
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MAINLY ON TRACK. STILL SUNNY NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES THERE TO THE LOW TO
MID 70S. THIS AFFECTS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...WITH DEWPOINTS
LOWERING NORTH WITH MIXING...AND MIN RH VALUES NORTH NOW EXPECTED
IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE.
RADAR RETURNS AT BOWMAN ARE BECOMING STRONGER IN NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA. THUS CHANCES OF RAIN BEGINNING IN
THE SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES IN
TIMING EXPECTATIONS FOR RAIN...WITH AFTERNOON CHANCES FAR SOUTHWEST
AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND MOVING NORTHWARD GRADUALLY TOWARD EVENING
TO AROUND I-94 IN THE SOUTHWEST BUT NOT REACHING I-94 IN THE JAMES
VALLEY UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 925 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
SATELLITE LOOPS AND SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE LARGE CLOUD MASS
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE
DAY. LATEST HRRR AND NAM MODELS INDICATE LOW CLOUDS MAKING THEIR
WAY NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE I-94 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE DAY. LOW
CLOUDS IN HETTINGER HAVE SCATTERED OUT...BUT EXPECT THAT WITH TIME
THEY WILL COVER THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON.
REGARDING RAIN CHANCES...WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF RAIN OUT FOR THE
MORNING HOURS AS PER THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE. SHORT
TERM MODELS - INCLUDING THE NAM - INDICATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
LIFTING NORTHWARD OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. A LOOK AT THE BOWMAN RADAR INDICATES LIGHT RADAR
RETURNS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST PART OF NORTH DAKOTA...AND SUSPECT
RADAR IS PICKING UP ON MID CLOUDS AND/OR VIRGA IN THE AREA.
LIFTING GOING ON IN THE LOW/MID ATMOSPHERE BUT NOT ENOUGH YET TO
YIELD PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND. THE GFS REMAINS VERY
AGGRESSIVE AND IS OVER- FORECASTING THE PRECIPITATION. MINOR
CHANGES TO AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES...BUT BASICALLY CHANCES ARE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-94...PERHAPS A BIT
BETTER FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TOWARDS THE MEDORA/BEACH AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON.
BETTER LIFTING AND STRONGER FORCING BEGINS THIS EVENING.
RAISED TEMPERATURES A TAD IN THE FAR NORTH BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WAVE MOVING NORTH ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF THE RAIN
CHANCES TODAY. CURRENT RAP / HRRR SUGGEST ANY RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
HOLD OFF FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS IN
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL MAINTAIN THAT
TIMING FOR THIS UPDATE. MAINLY BLENDED CURRENT CONDITIONS INTO
THE FORECAST WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS TIMING OF RAIN
TODAY/TONIGHT.
THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE 00 UTC MODEL SUITE INDICATE AN EVEN
FURTHER DELAY IN PRECIPITATION ONSET. THE EARLIER NAM AND GEM RUNS
KEPT RAIN OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL TONIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT WITH THEIR LATEST RUNS. FURTHERMORE...THE OO UTC
RUNS OF THE WRF FURTHER INDICATE A DELAY UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTER EJECTS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. ALSO PUSHED BACK THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTH
DAKOTA TODAY.
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAIN...SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SHOULD BE THE COOL SPOT TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S...WHILE NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SEES A LITTLE MORE SUN AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS THE RAIN / THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES KEEP CONFIDENCE IN
THE OVERALL DETAILS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY SOMEWHAT LOW. THE GFS
REMAINS THE MORE ROBUST MODEL IN REGARDS TO QPF ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE NAM IS ON THE LOW END OF VALUES. THE
ECMWF IS MORE IN THE MIDDLE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A BLEND
OF SOLUTIONS. THIS KEEPS THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND QPF ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PART OF NORTH DAKOTA. INSTABILITY IS STILL NOT VERY
HIGH ON SUNDAY...SO HAVE KEPT ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ISOLATED.
AS STATED EARLIER...MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL VARY ON MONDAY...AND
THIS ALSO INFLUENCES THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THEY PRODUCE. WILL
BUMP UP THE THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ON MONDAY WITH MORE
INSTABILITY SHOWN BY THE GFS...BUT WILL KEEP THINGS IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY.
IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WE ARE STILL SHOWING THE HIGHEST
TOTALS IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE AMOUNTS OF 1.00 - 1.25
INCHES ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOWEST AMOUNTS
REMAIN IN THE NORTH WHERE WE HAVE 0.25 - 0.50 INCH THROUGH THAT
SAME TIME PERIOD.
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODIC
WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO A BLENDED
MODEL SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS SMALL POPS MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
INSTABILITY OVERALL IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO WILL KEEP ANY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ISOLATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KMOT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
VFR AT KISN UNTIL AROUND 06Z WHEN MVFR CIGS FORECAST.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TO MFVR CIGS AT KDIK/KBIS
AROUND 00Z WITH VCSH...AND MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH RAIN BY AROUND
04Z-06Z. KJMS TO BECOME MVFR LATER TONIGHT WITH RAIN.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
940 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
STILL LOOKING AT SOME POSSIBLE SPRINKLES ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE CLOUD COVER INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
TODAY...BUT REMAINING SOUTH OF HWY 2. RAP 850MB-700MB RELATIVE
HUMIDITY APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS CLOUD SHIELD AND
USED FOR TIMING PURPOSES. MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 70S
(POSSIBLY 80F) NORTH OF HWY 2 WITH FULL SOLAR...WITH COOLER VALUES
NEAR 70F WITH CLOUDS. DID RAISE MAX TEMPS A BIT NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
ISSUES WILL BE HOW FAR AND WHEN WILL THE PRECIP SPREAD NORTH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. LARGER UPPER TROUGH OVER UTAH/N ARIZONA THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS..AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH SOME MID CLOUDS IN THE
SRN FCST AREA THIS AFTN. OF INTEREST IS A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS IN
THE SIOUX FALLS AREA. HRRR AND A FEW OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS DO
BRING A FEW SPITS OF PRECIP NORTHEAST INTO WCNTRL MN (ALEX-ST
CLOUD AREA) LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN. TO BLEND WITH WFO MPX I
DID INSERT A FEW SPRINKLES IN OTTER TAIL AND WADENA COUNTIES LATE
MORNING INTO MID AFTN. BASED ON MOISTURE MOVING NORTH ANY SHOWERS
WILL NOT REACH THE SD/ND BORDER AREA TIL LATE THIS AFTN AND
TRIMMED POPS ACCORDINGLY FOR TODAY. TONIGHT WILL SEE A SHOWER RICK
IN THE SOUTH BUT STUBBORN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SLOWING DOWN ANY NORTHWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF MOISTURE.
SUNDAY WILL SEE DEEPER MOISTURE START TO MOVE INTO SE ND AND THEN
SPREAD NORTH DURING THE DAY. THUS HIGHER POPS...MOSTLY SOUTHERN
FCST AREA. GFS REMAINS A BIT FASTER THAN ECMWF/GEM WHICH KEEP
DVL-GFK AREA DRY THRU SUN EVE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
RAIN CHANCES SPREAD NORTH SUN NIGHT WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES MONDAY
AS UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW MOVE FROM SOUTHERN SD INTO CNTRL/SRN
MN. HIGH PRESSURE DOES REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND SOME
MODELS WANT TO KEEP FAR NW FCST AREA DRY EVEN MONDAY. AT THIS TIME
WENT WITH SUPERBLEND OF MODELS AND IDEA OF CATEGORICAL POPS FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY SE 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA. SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY...BUT VERY WEAK...SO DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
SUN NIGHT THRU MON IN THE GRIDS. PRECIP BEGINS TO MOVE EAST MON
NIGHT. AS FOR HOW MUCH RAINFALL....MOST AREAS IN THE ONE HALF TO
THREE QUARTERS INCH RANGE GFK SOUTH AND EAST AND LESS NORTHWEST.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS ALTHOUGH THEY DO ALL SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER FEATURES BECOME OUT OF
PHASE WHEN COMPARING ECMWF AND GFS...UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAY`S
SOLUTION. ECMWF HAS LONGER WAVES WITH MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW MID
WEEK WHILE GFS HANGS ON TO A DIGGING SHORTWAVE NORTH OF THE BORDER
WITH MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE KEY TO COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS.
LATEST EXTENDED SUPERBLEND SOLUTION CONTINUES WITH POPS COVERING
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA MOST OF THE TIME...ONLY ADJUSTMENT WAS TO
SMOOTH OUT MINUTE AREAS OF PCPN/NO PCPN WITHIN THE FGF CWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
VFR THRU 12Z SUN. EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER TODAY...THICKEST IN THE SRN RRV AND WCNTRL MN. SOUTH
WINDS GENERALLY NR 10 KTS. NO PRECIP PUT IN THE TAFS THRU 12Z SUN
AS BEST CHC IS BEYOND THEN.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...WJB/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
938 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
SATELLITE LOOPS AND SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE LARGE CLOUD MASS
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE
DAY. LATEST HRRR AND NAM MODELS INDICATE LOW CLOUDS MAKING THEIR
WAY NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE I-94 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE DAY. LOW
CLOUDS IN HETTINGER HAVE SCATTERED OUT...BUT EXPECT THAT WITH TIME
THEY WILL COVER THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON.
REGARDING RAIN CHANCES...WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF RAIN OUT FOR THE
MORNING HOURS AS PER THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE. SHORT
TERM MODELS - INCLUDING THE NAM - INDICATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
LIFTING NORTHWARD OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. A LOOK AT THE BOWMAN RADAR INDICATES LIGHT RADAR
RETURNS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST PART OF NORTH DAKOTA...AND SUSPECT
RADAR IS PICKING UP ON MID CLOUDS AND/OR VIRGA IN THE AREA.
LIFTING GOING ON IN THE LOW/MID ATMOSPHERE BUT NOT ENOUGH YET TO
YIELD PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND. THE GFS REMAINS VERY
AGGRESSIVE AND IS OVER- FORECASTING THE PRECIPITATION. MINOR
CHANGES TO AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES...BUT BASICALLY CHANCES ARE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-94...PERHAPS A BIT
BETTER FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TOWARDS THE MEDORA/BEACH AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON.
BETTER LIFTING AND STRONGER FORCING BEGINS THIS EVENING.
RAISED TEMPERATURES A TAD IN THE FAR NORTH BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WAVE MOVING NORTH ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF THE RAIN
CHANCES TODAY. CURRENT RAP / HRRR SUGGEST ANY RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
HOLD OFF FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS IN
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL MAINTAIN THAT
TIMING FOR THIS UPDATE. MAINLY BLENDED CURRENT CONDITIONS INTO
THE FORECAST WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS TIMING OF RAIN
TODAY/TONIGHT.
THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE 00 UTC MODEL SUITE INDICATE AN EVEN
FURTHER DELAY IN PRECIPITATION ONSET. THE EARLIER NAM AND GEM RUNS
KEPT RAIN OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL TONIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT WITH THEIR LATEST RUNS. FURTHERMORE...THE OO UTC
RUNS OF THE WRF FURTHER INDICATE A DELAY UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTER EJECTS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. ALSO PUSHED BACK THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTH
DAKOTA TODAY.
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAIN...SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SHOULD BE THE COOL SPOT TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S...WHILE NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SEES A LITTLE MORE SUN AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS THE RAIN / THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES KEEP CONFIDENCE IN
THE OVERALL DETAILS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY SOMEWHAT LOW. THE GFS
REMAINS THE MORE ROBUST MODEL IN REGARDS TO QPF ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE NAM IS ON THE LOW END OF VALUES. THE
ECMWF IS MORE IN THE MIDDLE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A BLEND
OF SOLUTIONS. THIS KEEPS THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND QPF ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PART OF NORTH DAKOTA. INSTABILITY IS STILL NOT VERY
HIGH ON SUNDAY...SO HAVE KEPT ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ISOLATED.
AS STATED EARLIER...MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL VARY ON MONDAY...AND
THIS ALSO INFLUENCES THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THEY PRODUCE. WILL
BUMP UP THE THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ON MONDAY WITH MORE
INSTABILITY SHOWN BY THE GFS...BUT WILL KEEP THINGS IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY.
IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WE ARE STILL SHOWING THE HIGHEST
TOTALS IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE AMOUNTS OF 1.00 - 1.25
INCHES ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOWEST AMOUNTS
REMAIN IN THE NORTH WHERE WE HAVE 0.25 - 0.50 INCH THROUGH THAT
SAME TIME PERIOD.
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODIC
WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO A BLENDED
MODEL SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS SMALL POPS MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
INSTABILITY OVERALL IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO WILL KEEP ANY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ISOLATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KISN/KMOT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TO MFVR WITH RAIN AT
KDIK/KBIS/KJMS LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN CLOSER
TO 12Z.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
711 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
HRRR WAS RIGHT ON THE MONEY WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING
NORTHEAST THRU ECNTRL/SE SD INTO SW MN. THESE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST...IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW THEY HOLD TOGETHER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
ISSUES WILL BE HOW FAR AND WHEN WILL THE PRECIP SPREAD NORTH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. LARGER UPPER TROUGH OVER UTAH/N ARIZONA THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS..AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH SOME MID CLOUDS IN THE
SRN FCST AREA THIS AFTN. OF INTEREST IS A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS IN
THE SIOUX FALLS AREA. HRRR AND A FEW OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS DO
BRING A FEW SPITS OF PRECIP NORTHEAST INTO WCNTRL MN (ALEX-ST
CLOUD AREA) LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN. TO BLEND WITH WFO MPX I
DID INSERT A FEW SPRINKLES IN OTTER TAIL AND WADENA COUNTIES LATE
MORNING INTO MID AFTN. BASED ON MOISTURE MOVING NORTH ANY SHOWERS
WILL NOT REACH THE SD/ND BORDER AREA TIL LATE THIS AFTN AND
TRIMMED POPS ACCORDINGLY FOR TODAY. TONIGHT WILL SEE A SHOWER RICK
IN THE SOUTH BUT STUBBORN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SLOWING DOWN ANY NORTHWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF MOISTURE.
SUNDAY WILL SEE DEEPER MOISTURE START TO MOVE INTO SE ND AND THEN
SPREAD NORTH DURING THE DAY. THUS HIGHER POPS...MOSTLY SOUTHERN
FCST AREA. GFS REMAINS A BIT FASTER THAN ECMWF/GEM WHICH KEEP
DVL-GFK AREA DRY THRU SUN EVE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
RAIN CHANCES SPREAD NORTH SUN NIGHT WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES MONDAY
AS UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW MOVE FROM SOUTHERN SD INTO CNTRL/SRN
MN. HIGH PRESSURE DOES REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND SOME
MODELS WANT TO KEEP FAR NW FCST AREA DRY EVEN MONDAY. AT THIS TIME
WENT WITH SUPERBLEND OF MODELS AND IDEA OF CATEGORIAL POPS FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY SE 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA. SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY...BUT VERY WEAK...SO DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
SUN NIGHT THRU MON IN THE GRIDS. PRECIP BEGINS TO MOVE EAST MON
NIGHT. AS FOR HOW MUCH RAINFALL....MOST AREAS IN THE ONE HALF TO
THREE QUARTERS INCH RANGE GFK SOUTH AND EAST AND LESS NORTHWEST.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS ALTHOUGH THEY DO ALL SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER FEATURES BECOME OUT OF
PHASE WHEN COMPARING ECMWF AND GFS...UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAY`S
SOLUTION. ECMWF HAS LONGER WAVES WITH MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW MID
WEEK WHILE GFS HANGS ON TO A DIGGING SHORTWAVE NORTH OF THE BORDER
WITH MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE KEY TO COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS.
LATEST EXTENDED SUPERBLEND SOLUTION CONTINUES WITH POPS COVERING
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA MOST OF THE TIME...ONLY ADJUSTMENT WAS TO
SMOOTH OUT MINUTE AREAS OF PCPN/NO PCPN WITHIN THE FGF CWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
VFR THRU 12Z SUN. EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER TODAY...THICKEST IN THE SRN RRV AND WCNTRL MN. SOUTH
WINDS GENERALLY NR 10 KTS. NO PRECIP PUT IN THE TAFS THRU 12Z SUN
AS BEST CHC IS BEYOND THEN.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...WJB/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
623 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WAVE MOVING NORTH ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF THE RAIN
CHANCES TODAY. CURRENT RAP / HRRR SUGGEST ANY RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
HOLD OFF FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS IN
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL MAINTAIN THAT
TIMING FOR THIS UPDATE. MAINLY BLENDED CURRENT CONDITIONS INTO
THE FORECAST WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS TIMING OF RAIN
TODAY/TONIGHT.
THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE 00 UTC MODEL SUITE INDICATE AN EVEN
FURTHER DELAY IN PRECIPITATION ONSET. THE EARLIER NAM AND GEM RUNS
KEPT RAIN OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL TONIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT WITH THEIR LATEST RUNS. FURTHERMORE...THE OO UTC
RUNS OF THE WRF FURTHER INDICATE A DELAY UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTER EJECTS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. ALSO PUSHED BACK THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTH
DAKOTA TODAY.
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAIN...SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SHOULD BE THE COOL SPOT TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S...WHILE NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SEES A LITTLE MORE SUN AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS THE RAIN / THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES KEEP CONFIDENCE IN
THE OVERALL DETAILS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY SOMEWHAT LOW. THE GFS
REMAINS THE MORE ROBUST MODEL IN REGARDS TO QPF ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE NAM IS ON THE LOW END OF VALUES. THE
ECMWF IS MORE IN THE MIDDLE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A BLEND
OF SOLUTIONS. THIS KEEPS THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND QPF ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PART OF NORTH DAKOTA. INSTABILITY IS STILL NOT VERY
HIGH ON SUNDAY...SO HAVE KEPT ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ISOLATED.
AS STATED EARLIER...MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL VARY ON MONDAY...AND
THIS ALSO INFLUENCES THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THEY PRODUCE. WILL
BUMP UP THE THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ON MONDAY WITH MORE
INSTABILITY SHOWN BY THE GFS...BUT WILL KEEP THINGS IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY.
IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WE ARE STILL SHOWING THE HIGHEST
TOTALS IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE AMOUNTS OF 1.00 - 1.25
INCHES ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOWEST AMOUNTS
REMAIN IN THE NORTH WHERE WE HAVE 0.25 - 0.50 INCH THROUGH THAT
SAME TIME PERIOD.
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODIC
WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO A BLENDED
MODEL SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS SMALL POPS MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
INSTABILITY OVERALL IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO WILL KEEP ANY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ISOLATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KISN/KMOT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TO MFVR WITH RAIN AT
KDIK/KBIS/KJMS LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN CLOSER
TO 12Z.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
336 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
ISSUES WILL BE HOW FAR AND WHEN WILL THE PRECIP SPREAD NORTH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. LARGER UPPER TROUGH OVER UTAH/N ARIZONA THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS..AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH SOME MID CLOUDS IN THE
SRN FCST AREA THIS AFTN. OF INTEREST IS A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS IN
THE SIOUX FALLS AREA. HRRR AND A FEW OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS DO
BRING A FEW SPITS OF PRECIP NORTHEAST INTO WCNTRL MN (ALEX-ST
CLOUD AREA) LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN. TO BLEND WITH WFO MPX I
DID INSERT A FEW SPRINKLES IN OTTER TAIL AND WADENA COUNTIES LATE
MORNING INTO MID AFTN. BASED ON MOISTURE MOVING NORTH ANY SHOWERS
WILL NOT REACH THE SD/ND BORDER AREA TIL LATE THIS AFTN AND
TRIMMED POPS ACCORDINGLY FOR TODAY. TONIGHT WILL SEE A SHOWER RICK
IN THE SOUTH BUT STUBBORN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SLOWING DOWN ANY NORTHWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF MOISTURE.
SUNDAY WILL SEE DEEPER MOISTURE START TO MOVE INTO SE ND AND THEN
SPREAD NORTH DURING THE DAY. THUS HIGHER POPS...MOSTLY SOUTHERN
FCST AREA. GFS REMAINS A BIT FASTER THAN ECMWF/GEM WHICH KEEP
DVL-GFK AREA DRY THRU SUN EVE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
RAIN CHANCES SPREAD NORTH SUN NIGHT WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES MONDAY
AS UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW MOVE FROM SOUTHERN SD INTO CNTRL/SRN
MN. HIGH PRESSURE DOES REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND SOME
MODELS WANT TO KEEP FAR NW FCST AREA DRY EVEN MONDAY. AT THIS TIME
WENT WITH SUPERBLEND OF MODELS AND IDEA OF CATEGORIAL POPS FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY SE 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA. SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY...BUT VERY WEAK...SO DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
SUN NIGHT THRU MON IN THE GRIDS. PRECIP BEGINS TO MOVE EAST MON
NIGHT. AS FOR HOW MUCH RAINFALL....MOST AREAS IN THE ONE HALF TO
THREE QUARTERS INCH RANGE GFK SOUTH AND EAST AND LESS NORTHWEST.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS ALTHOUGH THEY DO ALL SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER FEATURES BECOME OUT OF
PHASE WHEN COMPARING ECMWF AND GFS...UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAY`S
SOLUTION. ECMWF HAS LONGER WAVES WITH MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW MID
WEEK WHILE GFS HANGS ON TO A DIGGING SHORTWAVE NORTH OF THE BORDER
WITH MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE KEY TO COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS.
LATEST EXTENDED SUPERBLEND SOLUTION CONTINUES WITH POPS COVERING
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA MOST OF THE TIME...ONLY ADJUSTMENT WAS TO
SMOOTH OUT MINUTE AREAS OF PCPN/NO PCPN WITHIN THE FGF CWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015
MAINLY FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. INCREASING VFR CIGS INTO SOUTHEASTERN ND
AND WEST CENTRAL MN BY 18Z... WITH SCT VFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN RAIN
SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS AFT 20Z... MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA.
SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING 10 TO 15 KTS FROM MID MORNING TIL SUNSET.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...WJB/RIDDLE
AVIATION...GUST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1047 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS ALLOWED FOR PLEASANT CONDITIONS THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS HAS CONTINUED TO PULL EAST TODAY ALLOWING FOR
WARMING CONDITIONS ALONG WITH RISING HUMIDITY. AS THE RIDGE AXIS
SLOWLY MOVES EAST INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...MOIST...SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ALOFT TO BRING THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AMPLIFIED MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EAST
AND FLOW OVER OHIO VALLEY BACKING SRLY LATE TONIGHT. LEADING EDGE
OF CONVECTION SHOWING UP ON RADAR MOSAIC LIFTING NORTH INTO
CENTRAL TN. HRRR AND RAP SOLNS SHOW THIS CONVECTION WEAKENING
AND PUSHING INTO ILN/S SW COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED
ORIENTATION AND SPEED OF PCPN AND WITH WITH LACK OF INSTBY HAVE
LIMITED MENTION TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT.
WITH SRLY WINDS STAYING UP AND INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN WAA PATTERN
TEMPERATURE WILL BE MILDER TONIGHT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 60S NE TO THE UPPER 60S SW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO BECOME
DISLODGED MONDAY ALLOWING FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO PUSH EAST AND THE
CHANCE OF RAIN TO RETURN TO THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST WITH A
LINE OF PVA SLOWLY MOVING EAST. THIS THIN LINE OF PVA WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH RES MODELS ARE SHOWING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG THIS LINE OF POSITIVE
VORTICITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING LOWER END INSTABILITY
WITH K INDEX VALUES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. THIS ALL SUPPORTS
CHANCE POPS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. IT
WILL ALSO BE WINDY MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH
SOME OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES POSSIBLY SEEING SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE
20 KTS.
BEHIND THE INITIAL WAVE OF PVA THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A BRIEF
BREAK IN THE RAIN. ON TUESDAY THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THAT
SWINGS THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS THAT EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL FINALLY HELP TO CLEAN UP THE FLOW AND MOVE THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ROCKIES TO THE EAST. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER AREA OF POSITIVE VORTICITY OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES. THE JET
STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO PUSH TO THE EAST
PUTTING THE AREA INTO A RRQ. SPC HAS THE SW PART OF THE CWA IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FOR TUESDAY HAVE CAPE VALUES JUST ABOVE 500 J/KG. INSTABILITY IN
THE SOUNDING STILL IS TAKING ON A SKINNY CAPE. THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE FOR WIND BUT THIS THREAT STILL REMAINS PRETTY LOW AT THIS TIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION FOR MID WEEK WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WHILE PCPN CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON THE
TIMING OF ANY EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES...WILL TRY TO SHOW SOME DIURNAL
ENHANCEMENT TO THE PCPN CHANCES FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. INITIALLY THIS
WILL LEAD TO A LITTLE MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF LULL IN THE PCPN CHANCES. A
BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN WILL THEN RETURN LATER FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN TOWARD OUR AREA SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER ON THE TIMING
OF THIS FRONT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS SO AM HESITANT TO GO ANY
HIGHER THAN CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE POPS AT THIS POINT.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...SOME MORE SEASONABLE
READINGS MAY RETURN FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH A LOW OVER ROCKIES
AND A RIDGE FROM THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE SE US. THIS RIDGE AXIS
TO SHIFT A LTL EAST WITH FLOW BACKING SWRLY OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/HI LEVEL
CLOUDS LATE. INITIAL S/W AXIS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL ALLOW A
VORT LOBE TO PIVOT NE THRU OHIO MONDAY AFTN. THIS FEATURE COMBINED
WITH MARGINAL INSTBY WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
HAVE CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AND DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE HAVE LIMITED
MENTION IN TAFS TO VCSH BETWEEN 17Z AND 24Z.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL PERSIST AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS INCREASE MONDAY DUE TO THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 30 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST EXPECTED
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...HAINES/AR
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
413 PM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015
.UPDATE...RADAR IS SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND MODOC COUNTY AS WELL AS NORTH INTO
KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. HAVE INCREASED THE COVERAGE OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS BASED ON THE RADAR AND LATEST RAP MODEL OUTPUT.
SHOWERS ARE LOW TOPPED AND EXPECT ONLY SOME LIGHT RAIN WITH THESE
SHOWERS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
UPDATE...ADDED THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE LINGERING WEST SIDE CLOUD COVER AND THE AFTERNOON
ONSHORE FLOW ALREADY SPILLING OVER THE CASCADES THE MODELS
INDICATION OF INSTABILITY OVER THE CASCADES LOOKS VERY UNLIKELY.
WITH THAT HAVE JUST KEPT TO SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY WITH VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FROM ANY THAT DO
DEVELOP. SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO FEED WARM MOIST AIR UP THE
SACRAMENTO VALLEY THIS EVENING. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW UP THE
SACRAMENTO VALLEY CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...WITH THE
FLOW MEETING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MOUNT SHASTA REGION AND
EASTWARD. THE STRONG THETA-E CONVERGENCE WILL COMBINE WITH
INSTABILITY OVER THAT AREA WITH WESTERLY STEERING WINDS SHOWING
MARGINAL STRENGTH TO PUSH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP EAST OFF THE
TERRAIN. THE FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH A SIMILAR PATTERN OF INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE IN THE SAME
LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN
AND OFFSHORE FLOW ON THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COAST, HAVE BUMPED UP
BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS ABOUT HALFWAY FROM GUIDANCE TO FULL ADIABATIC
HEATING IN DOWNSLOPE FLOW. /SVEN
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED AND THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
DECREASED FOR THURSDAY AS THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT ON A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE WEST COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON
THURSDAY THEN REACH A PEAK WITH A FEW ADDITIONAL DEGREES OF
WARMING FOR FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY, A LIGHT LOW AND MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE RIDGE AND SURFACE THERMAL
TROUGH PUSH FARTHER INLAND. BESIDES AIDING THE WARMING, THIS WOULD
BRING A MODEST INCREASE OF 700-500 MB MOISTURE. THE COMBINATION OF
THOSE TWO ELEMENTS WARRANTS THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AWAY FROM THE
COAST.
FOR NEXT WEEKEND, IT IS UNCERTAIN TO WHAT EXTENT OUR WEATHER WILL BE
INFLUENCED BY BOTH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND ANOTHER TROUGH OFFSHORE FROM OREGON. AS IS ITS TYPICAL
BIAS, THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF. THE
GFS SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN A FEW TO SEVERAL MORE DEGREES OF
COOLING BUT ALSO AN INCREASED PROBABILITY OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUS, WITH THE MODEL DIFFERENCES,
THE PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON SUNDAY THAN
ON SATURDAY. /DW
AVIATION...FOR THE 24/18Z TAF CYCLE...IFR STRATUS IS PRESENT
OVER THE OCEAN AND WILL SURGE BACK INTO COASTAL AREAS THIS EVENING
THEN PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 16Z MONDAY MORNING. INLAND...WEST SIDE
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH VFR
CEILINGS CURRENTLY LINGERING OVER DOUGLAS AND JACKSON COUNTIES.
THERE ARE ALSO AREAS OF VFR CIGS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE
CASCADES EASTWARD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT WHILE THE COASTAL
STRATUS WILL EXPAND INTO VALLEYS OF SOUTHWEST OREGON WITH MVFR
CIGS EXPECTED BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z. /DW
MARINE...UPDATED 130 PM PDT SUNDAY 24 MAY 2015...HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL STRENGTHEN INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS TO THE
WATERS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST SEAS WILL OCCUR IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH AND BETWEEN 10 NM AND 40
NM OFFSHORE. /JS
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ376.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ376.
$$
CC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1128 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 842 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/
UPDATE...
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS ARKANSAS. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THAT THE
SHOWERS MAY SKIRT PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS BEFORE DYING OUT. WILL UPDATE TO ADD 20 POPS. IN
ADDITION BLOW OFF HIGH CLOUDS FROM THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
COVERS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH. WILL ALSO UPDATE TO BUMP UP SKY COVER
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN
EXPECTED OVER AT LEAST WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER.
WILL WAIT FOR ONE MORE OB BEFORE DECIDING IF LOWS NEED TO BE
RAISED IN THAT PARTICULAR HOUR.
KRM
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS
CHILLY AS THIS MORNING WITH LOWS SATURDAY MORNING MAINLY IN THE
50S.
ON SATURDAY...WINDS WILL START TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY WHICH WILL
BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S. BY
SATURDAY NIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL START TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MUCH OF ARKANSAS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THERE
WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA SO
THIS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL WEAKEN BEFORE IT REACHES THE FORECAST AREA SO RAIN
CHANCES WILL DIMINISH ON MONDAY NIGHT.
BY TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS AND INTO MISSOURI. THIS WILL PRODUCE MORE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A DECREASING
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE SUMMER LIKE FOR THURSDAY AND NEXT
FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS.
ARS
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING SE 6-8 KTS SATURDAY.
SJM
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1027 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR THE TIME
BEING. WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WOULD EXPECT LOW STRATOCUMULUS
DECK TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SO HAVE GONE WITH JUST A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF RAIN AND SKY BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. LOWERED MIN
TEMPS A TAD AS ALREADY OBSERVING TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO FORECAST
MINS. WITH TEMPS NEAR THE DEWPOINTS SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN
SHELTERED AREAS...BUT THINK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WOULD SUPPORT MORE
OF A LOW STRATUS DECK THAN FOG.
STILL ON TRACK FOR STORMS ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL. THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW
PROGRESSIVE/FAST MOVING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS. IF IT TRACKS
QUICKLY LIKE THIS MORNINGS STORMS...ANY FLOODING WOULD BE MORE THE
NUISANCE VARIETY. IF TRAINING OF CELLS OR REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND
INITIAL LINE WERE TO OCCUR FLOODING COULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANT.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS AN INDICATION OF THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING
GIVEN THE SATURATED SOILS...ELEVATED STREAM FLOWS AND POTENTIAL
FOR HIGH RAIN RATES...BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY.
IT DOES APPEAR THAT SEVERE THREAT MIGHT BE A TAD HIGHER THAN WITH
THIS MORNINGS STORMS...GIVEN MORE FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY AND MORE
INSTABILITY...WHILE CONTINUING WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES.
46
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
AVIATION...
CLOUDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA. COULD
SEE SOME MVFR CEILING AND POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT AT SOME OF THE SITES
OVERNIGHT. GOING WITH VCSH FOR POSSIBLE MID MORNING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...
THEN TSRA FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE NEXT BATCH OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPS
AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THINGS QUIET DOWN TOMORROW EVENING AS ACTIVITY
COMES TO AN END. 42
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SEEING SOME SCT TSRA REDEVELOP ACROSS N PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE
HEATING AND RRQ OF DEPARTING JET ARE WORKING THEIR MAGIC.
ANTICIPATE THESE TO TAPER OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. IN THE
MEANTIME...CAN STILL SEE SOME ISO STRONG STORMS/DOWNPOURS THAT`LL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.
OVERNIGHT SYSTEM MADE MUCH QUICKER EWD PROGRESS THAN EXPECTED
YDAY AND IS WELL INTO CNTL LA. (FASTER NAM12 ACTUALLY DID A
RESPECTABLE JOB). ALSO SEE NO LINGERING SFC BOUNDARY ALONG I-10
ON CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS THAT SOME MODELS WERE INDICATING FOR
TONIGHT - SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AS
ONSHORE FLOW AND LLJ FEEDS INTO IT. ONLY CANADIAN AND POSSIBLY LATER
SPC HRRR RUNS DEPICT SUCH A SCENARIO NOW - THE REST (INCLUDING
ECMWF) KEEP THE REGION MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT. THIS GIVES US A BIT
MORE CONFIDENCE IN A DRIER OVERNIGHT PERIOD THAN EARLIER - BUT
STILL NO GUARANTY. HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWERED POPS IN RESPONSE.
NEXT IMPULSE SEEN ON W/V IMAGERY IN SRN NEVADA WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE STATE MONDAY. EXPECT THIS DISTURBANCE TO TRIGGER ANOTHER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO OUR WEST. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING
INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TOWARD MID MORNING AND ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ISSUED
ANOTHER FF WATCH FROM MID MORNING INTO THE EVENING MON FOR
LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW FAST THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT AND SOME LOCATIONS
MIGHT SEE PRECIPITATION CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. IN GENERAL...EXPECT
1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE WATCH AREA AND LESS SO FURTHER
SOUTH. LOCALIZED HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE TRAINING CELLS
OCCUR...AND ALSO IF THE EVENT DRAGS ON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THIS WATCH WILL NEED TO BE EXPANDED IN TIME IF IT DOES.
IN ADDITION TO TRAINING STORMS...DYNAMICS W/ THIS SYSTEM ALSO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND
TORNADOES BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. GROUNDS ARE WET AND TREES ARE
MORE PRONE TO BE BLOWN DOWN WITH LESS INTENSE WINDS THAN THEY
MIGHT OTHERWISE.
SPOKE ABOUT THE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT MON NIGHT REGARDING TIMING OF
THE EXIT OF PRECIP. WILL JUST NEED TO WATCH TRENDS. REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK WOULD ANTICIPATE SCT (MAINLY AFTN/EVNG) PRECIP EACH
DAY ACROSS INLAND AREAS. ANOTHER TROF APPROACHES THE NEIGHBORHOOD
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ALONG W/ HIGHER POPS UNFORTUNATELY. 47
MARINE...
LOOKS LIKE A REPRISE FROM WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAYS AND
GULF WATERS UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TONIGHT AND LIKELY UNTIL MONDAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO WEAKEN A BIT TONIGHT...BUT THEN
TIGHTEN BACK UP ON MONDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AGAIN MONDAY EVENING. FOR
THE MOST PART EXPECT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE WINDS COULD DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BELOW 21
KNOTS TONIGHT AT LEAST OVER THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS.
REGARDING THE TIDES...GALVESTON CHANNEL AND THE NORTH JETTY BOTH
RECORDED TIDE LEVELS OF ABOUT REACHED ABOUT 1.2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS DURING THE TIME OF THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE EARLIER TODAY.
TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER LATE TOMORROW MORNING
DURING THE HIGH TIDE TIME. EVEN SO...WAVE RUN UP COULD STILL PRESENT
SOME PROBLEMS WITH MINOR FLOODING ON LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE GULF
FACING BEACHES OF THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON ON MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 72 84 71 87 74 / 20 90 70 30 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 72 84 72 87 74 / 20 80 60 40 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 76 84 78 85 78 / 20 80 60 20 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...
COLORADO...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...LIBERTY...MADISON...
MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
WALLER...WASHINGTON.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
720 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
.AVIATION.../00Z TAFS/
CIGS HAVE LIFTED TO VFR AS DRY AIR BRIEFLY MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...BUT MOIST S-SE FLOW WILL CAUSE CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR AND
IFR BY 6-7Z AT SAT/SSF/AUS AND BORDERLINE MVFR-IFR BY 10Z AT DRT.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HELP TRIGGER ISO TSRA AT DRT
BETWEEN 12-15Z...BEFORE BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AT SAT/SSF/AUS
LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FEW HI-RES MODELS ARE
A BIT FASTER THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS AND SUGGEST SCT SHRA AND TSRA
MAY OCCUR LATE TOMORROW MORNING AHEAD OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA AND
TSRA TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SO HAVE ADDED IN TEMPO GROUPS BEGINNING
AT 15-16Z AT SAT/SSF/AUS AND MOVED TIMING UP AN HOUR TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...PREVAILING TSRA SHOULD OCCUR FOR AT LEAST A
FEW HOURS MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
THE SHORT BREAK FROM PRECIPITATION CONTINUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE SEEN A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING TO FORM UP IN WILLIAMSON COUNTY.
THIS SUPPORTS WHAT THE HRRR SHOWS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
DRY AIR HAS FILTERED IN BEHIND THE TWO LINES OF CONVECTION THIS
MORNING. ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS REMAINING DRY
OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY THE NAM SHOWING ANY CONVECTION/QPF OVERNIGHT.
WILL DISCOUNT THE NAM FOR NOW.
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS NOW ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA BORDER. THIS WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY.
MODELS ARE A BIT SPLIT ON TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW...BUT THEY ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON QPF AMOUNTS.
THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL CONCENTRATE QPF ACROSS THE NORTHERN
I-35 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY AND BEXAR COUNTY AREA. STILL THOUGH MODELS ARE SHOWING 1
TO 3 INCHES ACROSS AREAS THAT NOT ONLY HAD 1 TO 3...OR IN SOME
CASES A LOT MORE...INCHES OF A RAIN LAST NIGHT BUT HAVE ALSO HAD
SEVERAL HEAVY RAIN EVENTS OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS...LIKE THE
BASTROP AND LEE COUNTY AREAS. THE HEAVIER STORMS TOMORROW COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL UP TO 5 INCHES. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE MORE FLOODING CONCERNS SO FOR THAT REASON WE WILL
BE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM MONDAY THROUGH 1 AM ON
TUESDAY. AGAIN ALTHOUGH QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER
TOMORROW THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT THE ALREADY SATURATED GROUND
CANNOT TAKE ANYMORE RAINFALL LEADING TO THE ENHANCED FLASH FLOOD
RISK. THE LINE OF STORMS WILL BE FAST MOVING SO PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE ENDING BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
MOST OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS BEGIN CONVECTION ACROSS THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU AS EARLY AS 7 TO 10 AM TOMORROW. EARLY ON STORMS SHOULD BE
MORE CELLULAR. EVENTUALLY THESE STORMS WILL FORM INTO A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MUCH LIKE WHAT WE SAW COME THROUGH LAST
NIGHT. THIS LINE WOULD APPROACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON TOMORROW. SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE AGAIN IMPRESSIVE
FOR TOMORROW WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR TO SUPPORT NOT ONLY THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...BUT ALSO A FEW ISOLATED TORNADOES. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT THE STORM MODE THAT THE STORMS
TAKE WILL MOST LIKELY DETERMINE THE MAIN THREATS. THE LONGER THE
STORMS STAY CELLULAR THE BETTER THE CHANCES FOR TORNADOES. WITH
MOST MODELS SHOWING A LINEAR SYSTEM COMING ACROSS THE I-35
CORRIDOR THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE STRAIGHTLINE WINDS...SOME
ISOLATED HAIL...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A QLCS TORNADO OR TWO. WE
SAW SEVERAL CIRCULATIONS OR SPIN UPS ALONG THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LAST NIGHT AS IT PROGRESSED ACROSS THE AREA. A STORM
SURVEY TEAM IS CURRENT EN ROUTE TO GO DETERMINE IF THERE WERE ANY
TORNADOES OR IF THE DAMAGE WAS CAUSED BY STAIGHTLINE WINDS. MODELS
HAVE THE LINE OF STORMS THROUGH THE AREA BY 10 PM TO MIDNIGHT
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
IN SUMMARY...QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT...CONVECTION STARTING EARLY
TOMORROW...FLASH FLOOD WATCH STARTING AT 10 AM...CONVECTION
APPROACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH A THREAT
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER...MOVING OUT OF THE
AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
MID WEEK SHOULD SEE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND
EVEN SOME WEAK RIDGING TAKES PLACE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. WHILE THE
PATTERN BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE ANOTHER TROUGH DROPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TRACKING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL UP
RAIN CHANCES AGAIN INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH ALSO DRAGS A
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA. THE WET AND RAINY PATTERN LOOKS TO
CONTINUE. ANOTHER FACTOR THAT MAY PLAY INTO THE WEATHER LATE NEXT
WEEK IS THAT MODELS ARE FORMING A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC
THAT COULD SEND MOISTURE UP OUR DIRECTION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 83 72 82 69 88 / 30 20 80 40 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 82 72 82 68 87 / 30 20 80 40 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 84 72 83 70 87 / 20 20 80 30 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 82 70 80 67 87 / 30 20 80 30 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 91 70 90 68 93 / 20 20 50 20 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 81 72 80 69 87 / 30 20 80 30 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 86 71 84 70 88 / 20 20 80 30 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 82 73 82 70 87 / 30 20 80 40 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 81 74 82 72 87 / 30 30 80 50 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 85 73 83 72 88 / 20 20 80 30 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 85 73 84 72 88 / 20 20 80 30 20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...
BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...FAYETTE...
FRIO...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...
KERR...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...
WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...01
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...09
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
622 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
.AVIATION...
CLOUDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA. COULD
SEE SOME MVFR CEILING AND POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT AT SOME OF THE SITES
OVERNIGHT. GOING WITH VCSH FOR POSSIBLE MID MORNING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...
THEN TSRA FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE NEXT BATCH OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPS
AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THINGS QUIET DOWN TOMORROW EVENING AS ACTIVITY
COMES TO AN END. 42
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SEEING SOME SCT TSRA REDEVELOP ACROSS N PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE
HEATING AND RRQ OF DEPARTING JET ARE WORKING THEIR MAGIC.
ANTICIPATE THESE TO TAPER OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. IN THE
MEANTIME...CAN STILL SEE SOME ISO STRONG STORMS/DOWNPOURS THAT`LL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.
OVERNIGHT SYSTEM MADE MUCH QUICKER EWD PROGRESS THAN EXPECTED
YDAY AND IS WELL INTO CNTL LA. (FASTER NAM12 ACTUALLY DID A
RESPECTABLE JOB). ALSO SEE NO LINGERING SFC BOUNDARY ALONG I-10
ON CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS THAT SOME MODELS WERE INDICATING FOR
TONIGHT - SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AS
ONSHORE FLOW AND LLJ FEEDS INTO IT. ONLY CANADIAN AND POSSIBLY LATER
SPC HRRR RUNS DEPICT SUCH A SCENARIO NOW - THE REST (INCLUDING
ECMWF) KEEP THE REGION MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT. THIS GIVES US A BIT
MORE CONFIDENCE IN A DRIER OVERNIGHT PERIOD THAN EARLIER - BUT
STILL NO GUARANTY. HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWERED POPS IN RESPONSE.
NEXT IMPULSE SEEN ON W/V IMAGERY IN SRN NEVADA WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE STATE MONDAY. EXPECT THIS DISTURBANCE TO TRIGGER ANOTHER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO OUR WEST. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING
INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TOWARD MID MORNING AND ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ISSUED
ANOTHER FF WATCH FROM MID MORNING INTO THE EVENING MON FOR
LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW FAST THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT AND SOME LOCATIONS
MIGHT SEE PRECIPITATION CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. IN GENERAL...EXPECT
1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE WATCH AREA AND LESS SO FURTHER
SOUTH. LOCALIZED HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE TRAINING CELLS
OCCUR...AND ALSO IF THE EVENT DRAGS ON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THIS WATCH WILL NEED TO BE EXPANDED IN TIME IF IT DOES.
IN ADDITION TO TRAINING STORMS...DYNAMICS W/ THIS SYSTEM ALSO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND
TORNADOES BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. GROUNDS ARE WET AND TREES ARE
MORE PRONE TO BE BLOWN DOWN WITH LESS INTENSE WINDS THAN THEY
MIGHT OTHERWISE.
SPOKE ABOUT THE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT MON NIGHT REGARDING TIMING OF
THE EXIT OF PRECIP. WILL JUST NEED TO WATCH TRENDS. REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK WOULD ANTICIPATE SCT (MAINLY AFTN/EVNG) PRECIP EACH
DAY ACROSS INLAND AREAS. ANOTHER TROF APPROACHES THE NEIGHBORHOOD
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ALONG W/ HIGHER POPS UNFORTUNATELY. 47
MARINE...
LOOKS LIKE A REPRISE FROM WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAYS AND
GULF WATERS UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TONIGHT AND LIKELY UNTIL MONDAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO WEAKEN A BIT TONIGHT...BUT THEN
TIGHTEN BACK UP ON MONDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AGAIN MONDAY EVENING. FOR
THE MOST PART EXPECT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE WINDS COULD DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BELOW 21
KNOTS TONIGHT AT LEAST OVER THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS.
REGARDING THE TIDES...GALVESTON CHANNEL AND THE NORTH JETTY BOTH
RECORDED TIDE LEVELS OF ABOUT REACHED ABOUT 1.2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS DURING THE TIME OF THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE EARLIER TODAY.
TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER LATE TOMORROW MORNING
DURING THE HIGH TIDE TIME. EVEN SO...WAVE RUN UP COULD STILL PRESENT
SOME PROBLEMS WITH MINOR FLOODING ON LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE GULF
FACING BEACHES OF THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON ON MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 73 84 71 87 74 / 50 90 70 30 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 74 84 72 87 74 / 30 80 60 40 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 78 84 78 85 78 / 30 80 60 20 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...
COLORADO...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...LIBERTY...MADISON...
MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
WALLER...WASHINGTON.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...46
AVIATION/MARINE...42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
226 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
AN ACTIVE AND COMPLEX FORECAST IS SHAPING UP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BOTH
SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM ON SUNDAY.
IN ADDITION TO THE SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THAT IS ONGOING CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY AND I-35
CORRIDOR CONVECTION HAS BEGUN ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE BIG
BEND REGION. THIS IS THE START OF A LARGE LINEAR MCS THAT ALL OF
THE MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING
INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS
BEEN SITTING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PROVIDING THE LIFT FOR
THIS MCS. THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW 70S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2
INCHES. THERE IS ALSO PLENTY OF INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA WITH
THE MORNING DRT AND CRP SOUNDINGS BOTH HAVING 2000 - 3000 J/KG OF
CAPE. A GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL AND BULK SHEAR IS ALSO EVIDENT
ACCORDING TO THE MODELS. THIS MEANS THAT ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS
ARE IN PLACE FOR BOTH HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TOMORROW. WILL
BREAKDOWN THE THREATS AND THE TIME PERIODS IN THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM AFD.
FOR TONIGHT...AS ALREADY DISCUSSED...THE MESOSCALE MODELS DEVELOP
A COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. TIMING FOR THIS CONTINUES TO GET EARLIER. THE NSSL WRF
AND ARM BOTH HAVE THE LINE APPROACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON. THE TEXAS TECH WRF AND HRRR AND NMM ALL SAY THAT
THE LINE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY AND APPROACHING
THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY 9PM AND SLOWLY PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS THE EARLIER
TIMING IS BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE LIKELY. MODELS ARE STILL HOLDING
ONTO 1-3 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE OF
CONVECTION. THIS...ON TOP OF ADDITIONAL RAINS THAT HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN TODAY...AND THE FACT THAT SOILS ARE SATURATED WILL LEAD TO
THE THREAT OF BOTH RIVER FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. WHILE CONVECTION GROUPING
TOGETHER LIKE THIS TYPICAL MEANS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
A LITTLE BIT LESS...CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE VERY FAVORABLE. THE
MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE FIRST DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS WITHIN
BOWING SECTIONS OF THE LINE. THE HRRR ACTUAL SUPPORTS THIS WITH
SEVERAL BOWING SECTIONS BEING SHOWN IN THE MODEL REFLECTIVITY.
THERE IS ALSO SUFFICIENT SURFACE WIND SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES
TO RESULT IN AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS WINDS PROFILES TURN
WITH HEIGHT.
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IT IS IMPERATIVE THAT THOSE OUT AND
ABOUT FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY THOSE ON LOCAL RIVERS
AND LAKES...MONITOR THE WEATHER AND BE READY TO ACT SHOULD A
WARNING BE ISSUED FOR THEIR AREA. HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE
WEATHER INFORMATION...HAVE A PLAN TO SEEK SHELTER OR GET TO SAFETY
SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING OCCUR...AND ALWAYS REMEMBER TO
TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
AS WE GET INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH
CONTINUED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS NOW
SHOW THE LINE MOVING OUT OF OUR CWA BY 09Z TO 12Z (4 TO 7 AM).
BEHIND THE LINE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SOME WHAT WORKED OVER FROM
THE NIGHT OF STORMS. ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW OVER 3000 J/KG
OF CAPE...SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY...DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THE SAME SOUNDINGS SHOW SIGNIFICANT LOW
AND UPPER LEVEL DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS SHOULD LIMIT SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS SUNDAYS. MESOSCALE MODELS LIKE THE ARM/NMM/NSSL WRF DO SHOW
SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LIMITED.
TO SUMMARIZE THE NEXT 24 HOURS...1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IN EFFECT. THE LINE SHOULD BE PUSHING OUT OF OUR AREA
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WINDS
ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO EXIST WITH THE LINE. BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. EVERYONE SHOULD BE
WEATHER AWARE FOR THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY THOSE OUT AND ABOUT ON
AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.
&&
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE BREAK FROM THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES ON MONDAY.
THIS DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND GIVE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN AND
STORMS. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BEST TIMING FOR ANOTHER WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM AROUND LUNCH TIME THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MODEL QPF (FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF) FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
SUGGEST ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REMAIN OVER 1.5 INCHES AS WELL. LATER SHIFTS WOULD POSSIBLE NEED
TO CONSIDER EXTENDING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO MONDAY AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASES. THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO
RETURN ON MONDAY. SPC HAS THE AREA CURRENTLY BLANKETED IN A DAY 3
SLIGHT RISK. MODEL SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES
SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. STORM
MODE AND COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL DETERMINE THE OVERALL THREAT OF
TORNADOES AS CHANCES ARE BETTER WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OR MCS STORM MODES. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY CLOSELY. STRESSING
AGAIN...ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE HOLIDAY NEEDS TO MAKE
SURE THEY ARE WEATHER AWARE AND HAVE A PLAN TO SEEK SHELTER SHOULD
SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOP.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FOR TUESDAY IS MORE ZONAL WITH SOME SLIGHT
RIDGING FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER REDUCTION IN POP
CHANCES FOR MID-WEEK. BY THE END OF THE WEEK ANOTHER LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE WEST RETURNING THE AREA TO A
SIMILAR PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN IN FOR THE LAST FEW WEEKS WITH A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH SENDING A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE
AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 69 81 70 81 69 / 90 70 30 70 60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 69 82 69 81 68 / 90 70 30 70 60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 68 83 69 81 70 / 90 70 40 70 60
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 67 81 69 80 67 / 90 70 30 70 40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 68 90 71 89 69 / 60 30 20 50 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 69 80 69 80 68 / 90 70 30 70 50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 68 85 70 83 69 / 90 40 30 70 40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 69 82 69 81 69 / 90 70 40 70 60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 71 82 71 82 71 / 80 80 60 60 60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 68 84 71 82 71 / 90 60 40 70 50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 69 84 71 83 71 / 90 60 40 70 50
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...
GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...
KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...
UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TREADWAY
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1240 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
.AVIATION.../18Z TAFS/
CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY THE SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL OF THE HI RES
MODELS ARE REALLY DEVELOPING THE CONVECTION ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
IN THE 20Z-22Z TIME PERIOD AND MOVING THE SYSTEM EASTWARD TO THE
I-35 CORRIDOR BY 02Z-04Z AND THEN EAST OF THE TERMINALS BY 12Z
SUNDAY. HAVE USED THE SLIGHTLY FASTER TRENDS FOR THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. FOR THIS AFTERNOON 18Z-23Z SHOULD SEE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION. WILL SEE THE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
DEVELOPING BY 20Z-22Z ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND THEN ADVANCING
EASTWARD THROUGH 09Z. LINGERING SHRA SHOULD MOVE OUT BY 12Z-13Z.
CIGS WILL FALL TO IFR WITH CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AND THEN IMPROVE
TO VFR BY 17Z. S/SE WINDS 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH 01Z THEN E/SE 5-10
KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH 15Z. AFTER 15Z SUNDAY SOUTHERLY WINDS
AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 953 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
UPDATE...
BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO UP RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS BY 10 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO ADJUSTED
HIGHS FOR TODAY ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY UP A DEGREE GIVEN CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE AND TRENDED ALL
HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
DISCUSSION...
ALL OF THE MORNING MESOSCALE/HIGH-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
EARLIER FOR THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.
MOST HAVE IT DEVELOPING OVER THE DEL RIO AREA AROUND 5 PM AND
GETTING INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 9 AND MIDNIGHT. HEAVY RAINS
AND SEVERE WEATHER ARE STILL LOOKING LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND
WILL LOOK IN DEPTH INTO THAT IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE AND
DISCUSSION. FOR THE REST OF TODAY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE LINE.
WILL CONTINUE TO STRESS THAT ANYONE ON LOCAL RIVERS AND LAKES THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...NEED TO PAY VERY CLOSE
ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER AND ANY WARNINGS THAT ARE ISSUED. HAVE
MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE WEATHER INFORMATION...HAVE A PLAN TO
SEEK SHELTER OR GET TO SAFETY SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING
OCCUR...AND ALWAYS REMEMBER TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
AVIATION... /12Z TAF UPDATE/
ACTIVE CONVECTION IS IMPACTING AUS AT THE TIME OF TAF ISSUANCE.
THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE PULLING NORTH
OF THE SAT/SSF VCNTYS FOR A FEW HOURS AND COULD LIFT NORTH OF THE
AUS AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS WELL. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
AND ANOTHER RIPPLE OF ENERGY NEAR DRT COULD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE
I-35 SITES AGAIN BY 15Z. CONVECTION SHOULD BE SCATTERED SO TIMING
IS IN LOW CONFIDENCE FOR TODAY. CONFIDENCE INCREASES FOR THE
PREVAILING THUNDER PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE TIME WINDOW MAY BE ABLE
TO COMPRESS ONCE THE MUCH ANTICIPATED STORM COMPLEX BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE. AFTER THE COMPLEX IS SPECULATED TO PASS EAST OF I-35 TOWARD
DAYBREAK...WILL CONTINUE PREVAILING SHOWERS...WITH SOME POSSIBLE
FURTHER IMPROVEMENTS TO FOLLOW DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY.
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS FAIRLY PESSIMISTIC IN CASE THE SYSTEM SLOWS
DOWN.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS GETTING AN EARLY START WITH
CONVECTION INCREASING WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. THIS IS ALL ASSOCIATED
WITH INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW WHICH IS STILL
OVER UTAH/ARIZONA PER 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. RAINFALL RATES WITH THIS ACTIVITY ARE GENERALLY AT
1-2 INCHES PER HOUR AND WE HAVE ALREADY ISSUED ONE FLOOD ADVISORY.
THE HRRR IS ZEROING IN ON THIS AREA WHERE RAIN IS CURRENTLY
INCREASING AND IS COMING UP WITH SOME HIGH TOTALS THIS MORNING.
BECAUSE OF THIS EARLY THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL GO AHEAD
AND START THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW. THIS WILL BE A BIT TOO EARLY
FOR THE EASTERN ZONES...BUT WANT TO AVOID CONFUSION WITH A
SEGMENTED PRODUCT. HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
WESTERN CWA AS THE FAVORED AREA FOR CONVECTION LATER THIS MORNING
BEFORE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN LOOKS LIKELY
FOR TODAY WITH 60/70 POPS ACROSS THE CWA. INDIVIDUAL CELLS COULD
CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME TRAINING OF CELLS IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.
THE MAIN FORCING WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE TO THE WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS LIFT AND STRETCH ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF TEXAS. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE
GUIDANCE ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS WITH MOST MODELS SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THE 21Z TO 03Z TIME FRAME...WITH SOME OF THE HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE BEING THE EARLIEST. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MARCH
THROUGH THE CWA OVERNIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A QUICK 1-3
INCHES OF RAIN AS IT MOVES ACROSS. OVERNIGHT RAIN ON TOP OF ANY
RAINFALL THAT OCCURS TODAY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO SOAK INTO THE
GROUND...AS SOILS REMAIN QUITE SATURATED FROM A VERY WET SPRING.
MOST OF THE RAIN WILL RUNOFF INTO CREEKS...STREAMS AND RIVERS AND
FLOODING IS ONCE AGAIN LIKELY.
ALTHOUGH FLOODING RAINS IS OF THE HIGHEST CONCERN ON THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...THERE IS THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL. SEVERE
PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT AM CONCERNED WITH
THE HIGHER COVERAGE OF STORMS AND THE EFFECT THAT COULD HAVE BY
CLUTTERING UP THE NEAR-STORM ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...CANT RULE OUT
BOWING SEGMENTS WITHIN THE MAIN LINE THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME
SEVERE WINDS. ALSO...LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SOME
TURNING IN THE PROFILE WILL POSE AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WITH
ANY STRONGER LINE SEGMENTS AS WELL AS THE MAIN LINE MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA.
BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE LINE OF STORMS WILL BE NEARING THE EASTERN
COUNTIES AND SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE CWA SOMETIME AROUND 18Z. THE
THREAT OF FLOODING RAINS AND SOME SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO
ABOVE 3000 J/KG WHICH IS SOMEWHAT INITIALLY CONCERNING.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT AMOUNTS OF DRYING ALOFT
BEHIND THE INITIAL WAVE WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ACTIVITY. ALSO...THE
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE PRETTY WORKED OVER FROM THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING ACTIVITY. THE ONE AREA TO WATCH WILL BE THE WESTERN
COUNTIES WHERE THE MOST RECOVERY TIME WILL BE AND SOME HIGH-RES
MEMBERS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN THIS GENERAL AREA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY WILL AVERAGE 1-4
INCHES WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR. WE MUST
CONTINUE TO STRESS TO ANYONE ON LOCAL RIVERS AND LAKES THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND TO PAY VERY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER AND ANY
WARNINGS THAT ARE ISSUED. HAVE A PLAN IN PLACE TO SEEK SHELTER
AND ALWAYS REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SHOULD SEE A LULL IN ACTIVITY EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS
SHOULD UNFORTUNATELY BE BRIEF. CURRENTLY ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...ANOTHER IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW CAN
BE SEEN NEAR THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON BORDER. 00Z GUIDANCE SEEMS
TO HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS FEATURE QUITE WELL AND BRINGS IT INTO
TEXAS FOR MONDAY /MEMORIAL DAY/. SUBSEQUENTLY...THE 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED THE QPF AMOUNTS FORECASTED FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS THE HIGHEST OF ALL GUIDANCE WITH ANOTHER 2
INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED
RAIN TOTALS IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...BUT NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS
THE GFS IS ADVERTISING. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES THAT UP TO ANOTHER
2 INCHES OF RAIN WILL FALL ON MONDAY....THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
NEED TO BE EXTENDED AT A LATER TIME. CAPE/SHEAR VALUES WILL
SUPPORT THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DUE SHOW THE THREAT FOR HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED TORNADOES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE OVERALL THREAT FOR
TORNADOES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF
ACTIVITY AND IF ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE AVAILABLE TO DEVELOP.
AGAIN...ANYONE OUTDOORS ON THE HOLIDAY NEED TO MAKE SURE TO HAVE A
PLAN AND BE READY TO SEEK SHELTER.
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL ON TUESDAY WITH WEAK
RIDGING ON WEDNESDAY. OVERALL COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE
FOR MID-WEEK. POPS WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE NEARS THE AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 81 68 81 71 82 / 60 90 60 40 60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 81 68 81 70 82 / 60 90 70 40 60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 82 68 82 71 82 / 60 90 60 40 60
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 79 66 80 69 81 / 60 90 60 30 50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 82 68 89 70 87 / 80 70 30 20 40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 80 68 80 70 82 / 60 90 60 40 60
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 82 66 84 70 82 / 70 90 50 30 60
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 81 68 80 70 82 / 60 90 60 40 60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 83 69 80 71 82 / 40 80 80 50 70
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 82 68 82 72 83 / 60 90 60 30 60
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 83 69 83 72 83 / 60 90 60 30 60
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...
GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...
KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...
UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TREADWAY
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
953 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
.UPDATE...
BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO UP RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS BY 10 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO ADJUSTED
HIGHS FOR TODAY ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY UP A DEGREE GIVEN CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE AND TRENDED ALL
HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ALL OF THE MORNING MESOSCALE/HIGH-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
EARLIER FOR THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.
MOST HAVE IT DEVELOPING OVER THE DEL RIO AREA AROUND 5 PM AND
GETTING INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 9 AND MIDNIGHT. HEAVY RAINS
AND SEVERE WEATHER ARE STILL LOOKING LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND
WILL LOOK IN DEPTH INTO THAT IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE AND
DISCUSSION. FOR THE REST OF TODAY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE LINE.
WILL CONTINUE TO STRESS THAT ANYONE ON LOCAL RIVERS AND LAKES THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...NEED TO PAY VERY CLOSE
ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER AND ANY WARNINGS THAT ARE ISSUED. HAVE
MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE WEATHER INFORMATION...HAVE A PLAN TO
SEEK SHELTER OR GET TO SAFETY SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING
OCCUR...AND ALWAYS REMEMBER TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
AVIATION... /12Z TAF UPDATE/
ACTIVE CONVECTION IS IMPACTING AUS AT THE TIME OF TAF ISSUANCE.
THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE PULLING NORTH
OF THE SAT/SSF VCNTYS FOR A FEW HOURS AND COULD LIFT NORTH OF THE
AUS AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS WELL. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
AND ANOTHER RIPPLE OF ENERGY NEAR DRT COULD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE
I-35 SITES AGAIN BY 15Z. CONVECTION SHOULD BE SCATTERED SO TIMING
IS IN LOW CONFIDENCE FOR TODAY. CONFIDENCE INCREASES FOR THE
PREVAILING THUNDER PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE TIME WINDOW MAY BE ABLE
TO COMPRESS ONCE THE MUCH ANTICIPATED STORM COMPLEX BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE. AFTER THE COMPLEX IS SPECULATED TO PASS EAST OF I-35 TOWARD
DAYBREAK...WILL CONTINUE PREVAILING SHOWERS...WITH SOME POSSIBLE
FURTHER IMPROVEMENTS TO FOLLOW DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY.
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS FAIRLY PESSIMISTIC IN CASE THE SYSTEM SLOWS
DOWN.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS GETTING AN EARLY START WITH
CONVECTION INCREASING WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. THIS IS ALL ASSOCIATED
WITH INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW WHICH IS STILL
OVER UTAH/ARIZONA PER 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. RAINFALL RATES WITH THIS ACTIVITY ARE GENERALLY AT
1-2 INCHES PER HOUR AND WE HAVE ALREADY ISSUED ONE FLOOD ADVISORY.
THE HRRR IS ZEROING IN ON THIS AREA WHERE RAIN IS CURRENTLY
INCREASING AND IS COMING UP WITH SOME HIGH TOTALS THIS MORNING.
BECAUSE OF THIS EARLY THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL GO AHEAD
AND START THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW. THIS WILL BE A BIT TOO EARLY
FOR THE EASTERN ZONES...BUT WANT TO AVOID CONFUSION WITH A
SEGMENTED PRODUCT. HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
WESTERN CWA AS THE FAVORED AREA FOR CONVECTION LATER THIS MORNING
BEFORE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN LOOKS LIKELY
FOR TODAY WITH 60/70 POPS ACROSS THE CWA. INDIVIDUAL CELLS COULD
CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME TRAINING OF CELLS IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.
THE MAIN FORCING WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE TO THE WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS LIFT AND STRETCH ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF TEXAS. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE
GUIDANCE ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS WITH MOST MODELS SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THE 21Z TO 03Z TIME FRAME...WITH SOME OF THE HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE BEING THE EARLIEST. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MARCH
THROUGH THE CWA OVERNIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A QUICK 1-3
INCHES OF RAIN AS IT MOVES ACROSS. OVERNIGHT RAIN ON TOP OF ANY
RAINFALL THAT OCCURS TODAY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO SOAK INTO THE
GROUND...AS SOILS REMAIN QUITE SATURATED FROM A VERY WET SPRING.
MOST OF THE RAIN WILL RUNOFF INTO CREEKS...STREAMS AND RIVERS AND
FLOODING IS ONCE AGAIN LIKELY.
ALTHOUGH FLOODING RAINS IS OF THE HIGHEST CONCERN ON THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...THERE IS THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL. SEVERE
PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT AM CONCERNED WITH
THE HIGHER COVERAGE OF STORMS AND THE EFFECT THAT COULD HAVE BY
CLUTTERING UP THE NEAR-STORM ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...CANT RULE OUT
BOWING SEGMENTS WITHIN THE MAIN LINE THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME
SEVERE WINDS. ALSO...LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SOME
TURNING IN THE PROFILE WILL POSE AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WITH
ANY STRONGER LINE SEGMENTS AS WELL AS THE MAIN LINE MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA.
BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE LINE OF STORMS WILL BE NEARING THE EASTERN
COUNTIES AND SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE CWA SOMETIME AROUND 18Z. THE
THREAT OF FLOODING RAINS AND SOME SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO
ABOVE 3000 J/KG WHICH IS SOMEWHAT INITIALLY CONCERNING.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT AMOUNTS OF DRYING ALOFT
BEHIND THE INITIAL WAVE WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ACTIVITY. ALSO...THE
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE PRETTY WORKED OVER FROM THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING ACTIVITY. THE ONE AREA TO WATCH WILL BE THE WESTERN
COUNTIES WHERE THE MOST RECOVERY TIME WILL BE AND SOME HIGH-RES
MEMBERS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN THIS GENERAL AREA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY WILL AVERAGE 1-4
INCHES WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR. WE MUST
CONTINUE TO STRESS TO ANYONE ON LOCAL RIVERS AND LAKES THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND TO PAY VERY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER AND ANY
WARNINGS THAT ARE ISSUED. HAVE A PLAN IN PLACE TO SEEK SHELTER
AND ALWAYS REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SHOULD SEE A LULL IN ACTIVITY EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS
SHOULD UNFORTUNATELY BE BRIEF. CURRENTLY ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...ANOTHER IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW CAN
BE SEEN NEAR THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON BORDER. 00Z GUIDANCE SEEMS
TO HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS FEATURE QUITE WELL AND BRINGS IT INTO
TEXAS FOR MONDAY /MEMORIAL DAY/. SUBSEQUENTLY...THE 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED THE QPF AMOUNTS FORECASTED FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS THE HIGHEST OF ALL GUIDANCE WITH ANOTHER 2
INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED
RAIN TOTALS IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...BUT NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS
THE GFS IS ADVERTISING. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES THAT UP TO ANOTHER
2 INCHES OF RAIN WILL FALL ON MONDAY....THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
NEED TO BE EXTENDED AT A LATER TIME. CAPE/SHEAR VALUES WILL
SUPPORT THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DUE SHOW THE THREAT FOR HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED TORNADOES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE OVERALL THREAT FOR
TORNADOES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF
ACTIVITY AND IF ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE AVAILABLE TO DEVELOP.
AGAIN...ANYONE OUTDOORS ON THE HOLIDAY NEED TO MAKE SURE TO HAVE A
PLAN AND BE READY TO SEEK SHELTER.
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL ON TUESDAY WITH WEAK
RIDGING ON WEDNESDAY. OVERALL COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE
FOR MID-WEEK. POPS WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE NEARS THE AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 81 68 81 71 82 / 60 90 60 40 60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 81 68 81 70 82 / 60 90 70 40 60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 82 68 82 71 82 / 60 90 60 40 60
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 79 66 80 69 81 / 60 90 60 30 50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 82 68 89 70 87 / 80 70 30 20 40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 80 68 80 70 82 / 60 90 60 40 60
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 82 66 84 70 82 / 70 90 50 30 60
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 81 68 80 70 82 / 60 90 60 40 60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 83 69 80 71 82 / 40 80 80 50 70
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 82 68 82 72 83 / 60 90 60 30 60
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 83 69 83 72 83 / 60 90 60 30 60
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...
GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...
KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...
UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TREADWAY
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
653 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
.AVIATION... /12Z TAF UPDATE/
ACTIVE CONVECTION IS IMPACTING AUS AT THE TIME OF TAF ISSUANCE.
THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE PULLING NORTH
OF THE SAT/SSF VCNTYS FOR A FEW HOURS AND COULD LIFT NORTH OF THE
AUS AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS WELL. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
AND ANOTHER RIPPLE OF ENERGY NEAR DRT COULD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE
I-35 SITES AGAIN BY 15Z. CONVECTION SHOULD BE SCATTERED SO TIMING
IS IN LOW CONFIDENCE FOR TODAY. CONFIDIDENCE INCREASES FOR THE
PREVAILING THUNDER PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE TIME WINDOW MAY BE ABLE
TO COMPRESS ONCE THE MUCH ANTICIPATED STORM COMPLEX BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE. AFTER THE COMPLEX IS SPECULATED TO PASS EAST OF I-35
TOWARD DAYBREAK...WILL CONTINUE PREVAILING SHOWERS...WITH SOME
POSSIBLE FURTHER IMPROVEMENTS TO FOLLOW DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
SUNDAY. WILL KEEP CONDITIONS FAIRLY PESSEMISTIC IN CASE THE SYSTEM
SLOWS DOWN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS GETTING AN EARLY START WITH
CONVECTION INCREASING WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. THIS IS ALL ASSOCIATED
WITH INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW WHICH IS STILL
OVER UTAH/ARIZONA PER 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. RAINFALL RATES WITH THIS ACTIVITY ARE GENERALLY AT
1-2 INCHES PER HOUR AND WE HAVE ALREADY ISSUED ONE FLOOD ADVISORY.
THE HRRR IS ZEROING IN ON THIS AREA WHERE RAIN IS CURRENTLY
INCREASING AND IS COMING UP WITH SOME HIGH TOTALS THIS MORNING.
BECAUSE OF THIS EARLY THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL GO AHEAD
AND START THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW. THIS WILL BE A BIT TOO EARLY
FOR THE EASTERN ZONES...BUT WANT TO AVOID CONFUSION WITH A
SEGMENTED PRODUCT. HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
WESTERN CWA AS THE FAVORED AREA FOR CONVECTION LATER THIS MORNING
BEFORE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN LOOKS LIKELY
FOR TODAY WITH 60/70 POPS ACROSS THE CWA. INDIVIDUAL CELLS COULD
CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME TRAINING OF CELLS IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.
THE MAIN FORCING WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE TO THE WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS LIFT AND STRETCH ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF TEXAS. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE
GUIDANCE ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS WITH MOST MODELS SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THE 21Z TO 03Z TIME FRAME...WITH SOME OF THE HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE BEING THE EARLIEST. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MARCH
THROUGH THE CWA OVERNIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A QUICK 1-3
INCHES OF RAIN AS IT MOVES ACROSS. OVERNIGHT RAIN ON TOP OF ANY
RAINFALL THAT OCCURS TODAY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO SOAK INTO THE
GROUND...AS SOILS REMAIN QUITE SATURATED FROM A VERY WET SPRING.
MOST OF THE RAIN WILL RUNOFF INTO CREEKS...STREAMS AND RIVERS AND
FLOODING IS ONCE AGAIN LIKELY.
ALTHOUGH FLOODING RAINS IS OF THE HIGHEST CONCERN ON THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...THERE IS THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL. SEVERE
PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT AM CONCERNED WITH
THE HIGHER COVERAGE OF STORMS AND THE EFFECT THAT COULD HAVE BY
CLUTTERING UP THE NEAR-STORM ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...CANT RULE OUT
BOWING SEGMENTS WITHIN THE MAIN LINE THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME
SEVERE WINDS. ALSO...LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SOME
TURNING IN THE PROFILE WILL POSE AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WITH
ANY STRONGER LINE SEGMENTS AS WELL AS THE MAIN LINE MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA.
BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE LINE OF STORMS WILL BE NEARING THE EASTERN
COUNTIES AND SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE CWA SOMETIME AROUND 18Z. THE
THREAT OF FLOODING RAINS AND SOME SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO
ABOVE 3000 J/KG WHICH IS SOMEWHAT INITIALLY CONCERNING.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT AMOUNTS OF DRYING ALOFT
BEHIND THE INITIAL WAVE WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ACTIVITY. ALSO...THE
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE PRETTY WORKED OVER FROM THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING ACTIVITY. THE ONE AREA TO WATCH WILL BE THE WESTERN
COUNTIES WHERE THE MOST RECOVERY TIME WILL BE AND SOME HIGH-RES
MEMBERS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN THIS GENERAL AREA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY WILL AVERAGE 1-4
INCHES WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR. WE MUST
CONTINUE TO STRESS TO ANYONE ON LOCAL RIVERS AND LAKES THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND TO PAY VERY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER AND ANY
WARNINGS THAT ARE ISSUED. HAVE A PLAN IN PLACE TO SEEK SHELTER
AND ALWAYS REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SHOULD SEE A LULL IN ACTIVITY EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS
SHOULD UNFORTUNATELY BE BRIEF. CURRENTLY ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...ANOTHER IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW CAN
BE SEEN NEAR THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON BORDER. 00Z GUIDANCE SEEMS
TO HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS FEATURE QUITE WELL AND BRINGS IT INTO
TEXAS FOR MONDAY /MEMORIAL DAY/. SUBSEQUENTLY...THE 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED THE QPF AMOUNTS FORECASTED FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS THE HIGHEST OF ALL GUIDANCE WITH ANOTHER 2
INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED
RAIN TOTALS IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...BUT NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS
THE GFS IS ADVERTISING. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES THAT UP TO ANOTHER
2 INCHES OF RAIN WILL FALL ON MONDAY....THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
NEED TO BE EXTENDED AT A LATER TIME. CAPE/SHEAR VALUES WILL
SUPPORT THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DUE SHOW THE THREAT FOR HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED TORNADOES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE OVERALL THREAT FOR
TORNADOES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF
ACTIVITY AND IF ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE AVAILABLE TO DEVELOP.
AGAIN...ANYONE OUTDOORS ON THE HOLIDAY NEED TO MAKE SURE TO HAVE A
PLAN AND BE READY TO SEEK SHELTER.
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL ON TUESDAY WITH WEAK
RIDGING ON WEDNESDAY. OVERALL COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE
FOR MID-WEEK. POPS WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE NEARS THE AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 81 68 81 71 82 / 60 90 60 40 60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 81 68 81 70 82 / 60 90 70 40 60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 82 68 82 71 82 / 60 90 60 40 60
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 79 66 80 69 81 / 50 90 60 30 50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 82 68 89 70 87 / 70 70 30 20 40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 80 68 80 70 82 / 50 90 60 40 60
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 82 66 84 70 82 / 70 90 50 30 60
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 81 68 80 70 82 / 60 90 60 40 60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 83 69 80 71 82 / 40 80 80 50 70
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 82 68 82 72 83 / 60 90 60 30 60
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 83 69 83 72 83 / 60 90 60 30 60
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...
GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...
KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...
UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
314 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS GETTING AN EARLY START WITH
CONVECTION INCREASING WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. THIS IS ALL ASSOCIATED
WITH INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW WHICH IS STILL
OVER UTAH/ARIZONA PER 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. RAINFALL RATES WITH THIS ACTIVITY ARE GENERALLY AT
1-2 INCHES PER HOUR AND WE HAVE ALREADY ISSUED ONE FLOOD ADVISORY.
THE HRRR IS ZEROING IN ON THIS AREA WHERE RAIN IS CURRENTLY
INCREASING AND IS COMING UP WITH SOME HIGH TOTALS THIS MORNING.
BECAUSE OF THIS EARLY THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL GO AHEAD
AND START THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW. THIS WILL BE A BIT TOO EARLY
FOR THE EASTERN ZONES...BUT WANT TO AVOID CONFUSION WITH A
SEGMENTED PRODUCT. HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
WESTERN CWA AS THE FAVORED AREA FOR CONVECTION LATER THIS MORNING
BEFORE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN LOOKS LIKELY
FOR TODAY WITH 60/70 POPS ACROSS THE CWA. INDIVIDUAL CELLS COULD
CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME TRAINING OF CELLS IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.
THE MAIN FORCING WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE TO THE WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS LIFT AND STRETCH ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF TEXAS. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE
GUIDANCE ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS WITH MOST MODELS SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THE 21Z TO 03Z TIME FRAME...WITH SOME OF THE HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE BEING THE EARLIEST. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MARCH
THROUGH THE CWA OVERNIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A QUICK 1-3
INCHES OF RAIN AS IT MOVES ACROSS. OVERNIGHT RAIN ON TOP OF ANY
RAINFALL THAT OCCURS TODAY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO SOAK INTO THE
GROUND...AS SOILS REMAIN QUITE SATURATED FROM A VERY WET SPRING.
MOST OF THE RAIN WILL RUNOFF INTO CREEKS...STREAMS AND RIVERS AND
FLOODING IS ONCE AGAIN LIKELY.
ALTHOUGH FLOODING RAINS IS OF THE HIGHEST CONCERN ON THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...THERE IS THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL. SEVERE
PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT AM CONCERNED WITH
THE HIGHER COVERAGE OF STORMS AND THE EFFECT THAT COULD HAVE BY
CLUTTERING UP THE NEAR-STORM ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...CANT RULE OUT
BOWING SEGMENTS WITHIN THE MAIN LINE THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME
SEVERE WINDS. ALSO...LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SOME
TURNING IN THE PROFILE WILL POSE AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WITH
ANY STRONGER LINE SEGMENTS AS WELL AS THE MAIN LINE MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA.
BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE LINE OF STORMS WILL BE NEARING THE EASTERN
COUNTIES AND SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE CWA SOMETIME AROUND 18Z. THE
THREAT OF FLOODING RAINS AND SOME SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO
ABOVE 3000 J/KG WHICH IS SOMEWHAT INITIALLY CONCERNING.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT AMOUNTS OF DRYING ALOFT
BEHIND THE INITIAL WAVE WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ACTIVITY. ALSO...THE
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE PRETTY WORKED OVER FROM THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING ACTIVITY. THE ONE AREA TO WATCH WILL BE THE WESTERN
COUNTIES WHERE THE MOST RECOVERY TIME WILL BE AND SOME HIGH-RES
MEMBERS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN THIS GENERAL AREA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY WILL AVERAGE 1-4
INCHES WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR. WE MUST
CONTINUE TO STRESS TO ANYONE ON LOCAL RIVERS AND LAKES THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND TO PAY VERY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER AND ANY
WARNINGS THAT ARE ISSUED. HAVE A PLAN IN PLACE TO SEEK SHELTER
AND ALWAYS REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
&&
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SHOULD SEE A LULL IN ACTIVITY EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS
SHOULD UNFORTUNATELY BE BRIEF. CURRENTLY ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...ANOTHER IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW CAN
BE SEEN NEAR THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON BORDER. 00Z GUIDANCE SEEMS
TO HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS FEATURE QUITE WELL AND BRINGS IT INTO
TEXAS FOR MONDAY /MEMORIAL DAY/. SUBSEQUENTLY...THE 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED THE QPF AMOUNTS FORECASTED FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS THE HIGHEST OF ALL GUIDANCE WITH ANOTHER 2
INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED
RAIN TOTALS IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...BUT NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS
THE GFS IS ADVERTISING. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES THAT UP TO ANOTHER
2 INCHES OF RAIN WILL FALL ON MONDAY....THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
NEED TO BE EXTENDED AT A LATER TIME. CAPE/SHEAR VALUES WILL
SUPPORT THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DUE SHOW THE THREAT FOR HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED TORNADOES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE OVERALL THREAT FOR
TORNADOES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF
ACTIVITY AND IF ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE AVAILABLE TO DEVELOP.
AGAIN...ANYONE OUTDOORS ON THE HOLIDAY NEED TO MAKE SURE TO HAVE A
PLAN AND BE READY TO SEEK SHELTER.
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL ON TUESDAY WITH WEAK
RIDGING ON WEDNESDAY. OVERALL COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE
FOR MID-WEEK. POPS WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE NEARS THE AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 81 68 81 71 82 / 60 90 60 40 60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 81 68 81 70 82 / 60 90 70 40 60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 82 68 82 71 82 / 60 90 60 40 60
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 79 66 80 69 81 / 50 90 60 30 50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 82 68 89 70 87 / 70 70 30 20 40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 80 68 80 70 82 / 50 90 60 40 60
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 82 66 84 70 82 / 70 90 50 30 60
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 81 68 80 70 82 / 60 90 60 40 60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 83 69 80 71 82 / 40 80 80 50 70
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 82 68 82 72 83 / 60 90 60 30 60
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 83 69 83 72 83 / 60 90 60 30 60
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...
GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...
KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...
UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
313 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS GETTING AN EARLY START WITH
CONVECTION INCREASING WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. THIS IS ALL ASSOCIATED
WITH INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW WHICH IS STILL
OVER UTAH/ARIZONA PER 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. RAINFALL RATES WITH THIS ACTIVITY ARE GENERALLY AT
1-2 INCHES PER HOUR AND WE HAVE ALREADY ISSUED ONE FLOOD ADVISORY.
THE HRRR IS ZEROING IN ON THIS AREA WHERE RAIN IS CURRENTLY
INCREASING AND IS COMING UP WITH SOME HIGH TOTALS THIS MORNING.
BECAUSE OF THIS EARLY THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL GO AHEAD
AND START THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW. THIS WILL BE A BIT TOO EARLY
FOR THE EASTERN ZONES...BUT WANT TO AVOID CONFUSION WITH A
SEGMENTED PRODUCT. HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
WESTERN CWA AS THE FAVORED AREA FOR CONVECTION LATER THIS MORNING
BEFORE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN LOOKS LIKELY
FOR TODAY WITH 60/70 POPS ACROSS THE CWA. INDIVIDUAL CELLS COULD
CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME TRAINING OF CELLS IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.
THE MAIN FORCING WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE TO THE WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS LIFT AND STRETCH ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF TEXAS. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE
GUIDANCE ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS WITH MOST MODELS SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THE 21Z TO 03Z TIME FRAME...WITH SOME OF THE HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE BEING THE EARLIEST. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MARCH
THROUGH THE CWA OVERNIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A QUICK 1-3
INCHES OF RAIN AS IT MOVES ACROSS. OVERNIGHT RAIN ON TOP OF ANY
RAINFALL THAT OCCURS TODAY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO SOAK INTO THE
GROUND...AS SOILS REMAIN QUITE SATURATED FROM A VERY WET SPRING.
MOST OF THE RAIN WILL RUNOFF INTO CREEKS...STREAMS AND RIVERS AND
FLOODING IS ONCE AGAIN LIKELY.
ALTHOUGH FLOODING RAINS IS OF THE HIGHEST CONCERN ON THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...THERE IS THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL. SEVERE
PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT AM CONCERNED WITH
THE HIGHER COVERAGE OF STORMS AND THE EFFECT THAT COULD HAVE BY
CLUTTERING UP THE NEAR-STORM ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...CANT RULE OUT
BOWING SEGMENTS WITHIN THE MAIN LINE THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME
SEVERE WINDS. ALSO...LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SOME
TURNING IN THE PROFILE WILL POSE AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WITH
ANY STRONGER LINE SEGMENTS AS WELL AS THE MAIN LINE MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA.
BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE LINE OF STORMS WILL BE NEARING THE EASTERN
COUNTIES AND SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE CWA SOMETIME AROUND 18Z. THE
THREAT OF FLOODING RAINS AND SOME SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO
ABOVE 3000 J/KG WHICH IS SOMEWHAT INITIALLY CONCERNING.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT AMOUNTS OF DRYING ALOFT
BEHIND THE INITIAL WAVE WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ACTIVITY. ALSO...THE
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE PRETTY WORKED OVER FROM THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING ACTIVITY. THE ONE AREA TO WATCH WILL BE THE WESTERN
COUNTIES WHERE THE MOST RECOVERY TIME WILL BE AND SOME HIGH-RES
MEMBERS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN THIS GENERAL AREA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY WILL AVERAGE 1-4
INCHES WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR. WE MUST
CONTINUE TO STRESS TO ANYONE ON LOCAL RIVERS AND LAKES THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND TO PAY VERY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER AND ANY
WARNINGS THAT ARE ISSUED. HAVE A PLAN IN PLACE TO SEEK SHELTER
AND ALWAYS REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
&&
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SHOULD SEE A LULL IN ACTIVITY EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS
SHOULD UNFORTUNATELY BE BRIEF. CURRENTLY ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...ANOTHER IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW CAN
BE SEEN NEAR THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON BORDER. 00Z GUIDANCE SEEMS
TO HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS FEATURE QUITE WELL AND BRINGS IT INTO
TEXAS FOR MONDAY /MEMORIAL DAY/. SUBSEQUENTLY...THE 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED THE QPF AMOUNTS FORECASTED FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS THE HIGHEST OF ALL GUIDANCE WITH ANOTHER 2
INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED
RAIN TOTALS IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...BUT NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS
THE GFS IS ADVERTISING. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES THAT UP TO ANOTHER
2 INCHES OF RAIN WILL FALL ON MONDAY....THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
NEED TO BE EXTENDED AT A LATER TIME. CAPE/SHEAR VALUES WILL
SUPPORT THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DUE SHOW THE THREAT FOR HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED TORNADOES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE OVERALL THREAT FOR
TORNADOES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF
ACTIVITY AND IF ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE AVAILABLE TO DEVELOP.
AGAIN...ANYONE OUTDOORS ON THE HOLIDAY NEED TO MAKE SURE TO HAVE A
PLAN AND BE READY TO SEEK SHELTER.
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL ON TUESDAY WITH WEAK
RIDGING ON WEDNESDAY. OVERALL COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE
FOR MID-WEEK. POPS WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE NEARS THE AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 81 68 81 71 82 / 60 90 60 40 60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 81 68 81 70 82 / 60 90 70 40 60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 82 68 82 71 82 / 60 90 60 40 60
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 79 66 80 69 81 / 50 90 60 30 50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 82 68 89 70 87 / 70 70 30 20 40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 80 68 80 70 82 / 50 90 60 40 60
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 82 66 84 70 82 / 70 90 50 30 60
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 81 68 80 70 82 / 60 90 60 40 60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 83 69 80 71 82 / 40 80 80 50 70
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 82 68 82 72 83 / 60 90 60 30 60
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 83 69 83 72 83 / 60 90 60 30 60
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...
BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...
EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...
HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...
MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...
WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1217 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 859 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL PRESSURE TROUGH WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD
FROM EASTERN KS TOWARD NW IL OVERNIGHT PROMOTING A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET THROUGH WESTERN ILLINOIS AND ASSOCIATED 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS. COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY TO AROUND
1000 J/KG CAPE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT
MIDWAY BETWEEN I-55 AND I-57 WESTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH ANY ROTATING
STORMS...AND A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL 1
A.M. INSTABILITY WILL WANE OVERNIGHT AS NIGHTTIME COOLING
DEVELOPS. NEVERTHELESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT AS LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION. IN THE WARM HUMID AIR MASS
BEHIND A WARM FRONT THAT CROSSED EARLIER TODAY...LOWS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 60S CAN BE EXPECTED...AND BREEZY WINDS 15-20 MPH
CONTINUING. NO MAJOR UPDATES EXPECTED THIS EVENING EXCEPT SHORT
TERM ADJUSTMENTS FOR CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND
TEMPERATURES/WIND TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSOURI IN CONJUNCTION WITH A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTEX (MCV) GENERATED BY AN UPSTREAM STORM COMPLEX LAST NIGHT.
THESE CELLS ARE LIFTING MAINLY NORTHWARD AND WILL STAY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. FURTHER
EAST...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE KILX CWA...HOWEVER WEAK WIND SHEAR AND AN
OVERALL LACK OF FORCING WILL KEEP AREAL COVERAGE TO A MINIMUM INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. STRONGER FORCING WILL GRADUALLY ARRIVE AS A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON 19Z/2PM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS
TEXAS LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING. HIGH-RES
MODELS CONTINUE TO DELAY THE ONSET OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...WITH
THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTING THAT E/NE PARTS OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE TAILORED RAIN CHANCES
ACCORDINGLY...WITH LIKELY POPS GRADUALLY OVERSPREADING ALL LOCATIONS
SOUTHWEST OF A BLOOMINGTON TO PARIS LINE DURING THE EVENING...THEN
FURTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
DESPITE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH TEXAS
WAVE...WANING INSTABILITY AFTER SUNSET WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER FROM MATERIALIZING...ALTHOUGH A FEW CELLS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI TO SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS BY 12Z MON...THEN WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY MIDDAY. ONCE FEATURE PASSES...SHORT-WAVE RIDGING
IN ITS WAKE WILL CREATE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY AFTERNOON.
WILL STILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES FROM
THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...AS THESE COULD POSSIBLY TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL STORMS LATER IN THE DAY AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES
MODERATELY UNSTABLE. AT THIS TIME...THINK SUBSIDENCE AND
MID-LEVEL DRYING BEHIND THE WAVE WILL PREVENT CONVECTION...SO
WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST IN THE AFTERNOON. MAIN STORY ON
MONDAY WILL BE THE WINDY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS. MODELS ARE
SHOWING A 50-55KT 925MB JET DEVELOPING FROM THE OZARKS TO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT. AS MIXING BEGINS TO TAKE
PLACE MONDAY MORNING...SOME OF THIS HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR WILL BE
TRANSFERRED TO THE SURFACE RESULTING IN GUSTS OF 30-35MPH.
THANKS TO THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND CLEARING
SKIES...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR WELL INTO THE 80S.
THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT-WAVE CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA WILL ROUND THE
BASE OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH AND LIFT INTO ILLINOIS ON TUESDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING
OF THIS FEATURE. WILL BRING POPS BACK INTO THE PICTURE AFTER
MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL GO LIKELY ACROSS THE BOARD ON
TUESDAY. LATEST DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC FEATURES A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70 ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IN THE MORNING WILL LIKELY LIMIT INSTABILITY FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. LATEST NAM SHOWS SBCAPES INCREASING TO 1500J/KG ACROSS THE
SE CWA LATE IN THE DAY...WHILE 0-6KM SHEAR REMAINS QUITE WEAK AT
AROUND 25KT. WHILE ISOLATED STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS UNLIKELY IN THE OUTLOOK AREA.
ONCE THIS WAVE EXITS THE REGION...FORCING ONCE AGAIN BECOMES MEAGER
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A SUBTLE WAVE MAY PASS THROUGH
ILLINOIS ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS AT THAT
TIME. THURSDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE THE OVERALL DRIEST DAY OF THE
WEEK...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE
80S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...A MORE SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN-STREAM
WAVE WILL BEGIN PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARD ILLINOIS. STILL SOME
MODEL DISCREPANCY WITH THE TIMING OF THAT PROCESS...BUT TRENDS ARE
SUGGESTING ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. ISOLATED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
NIGHT...WHILE MODEL TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS AND UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE PREDOMINANT CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR
OVERNIGHT. DIMINISHING SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE MORNING
RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 15-18Z THROUGH THE EVENING.
WINDS S 10-20 KTS...DECREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ONTON
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...BARNES
AVIATION...ONTON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
319 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
Upper low over the Central Rockies continues to eject smaller pieces
of shortwave energy into Kansas, with one moving out of the forecast
area while the next is on approach. Steepening of lapse rates with
the incoming wave is providing enough instability for thunder to
develop, and model soundings indicate instability will continue to
be on the increase, along with an EML that moves into Eastern
Kansas. Also of influence will be the convective complex out in
west central Kansas moving eastward at this hour. The northern side
of this feature appears to have gust front out ahead of the
convection while the southern side still is along or just behind the
gust front. Latest HRRR dissipates this feature considerably through
the early morning hours, and at this time have opted to carry
diminishing precip chances through the morning to account for this
feature. The Cottonwood, Neosho, and Marias des Cygnes rivers
continue to be in flood, but at this time don`t see lingering heavy
rainfall and will cancel the flash flood watch. Afternoon hours
appear to be a transition period as EML moves in and perhaps
subsidence behind leading shortwave aid in clearing out earlier
convection, a reset for activity in the late afternoon and evening
hours.
Larger scale upper trof moves eastward late this afternoon and
evening, bring surface low and frontal boundary into north central
Kansas. Lapse rates continue to steepen along this boundary, with
NAM12 indicating 2500J/kg of surface based CAPE by 23z near
Concordia, and higher values toward Manhattan, although think this
is somewhat overdone by high dewpoint bias in that area. 0-1km shear
values are in the 10-20kt range, with 0-3km helicity near 150m/s2.
0-6km bulk shear values are less robust, around 25kts, with wind
speeds aloft weaker and more unidirectional making for weaker
profiles. Still enough ingredients to make severe hail and wind of
concern with storms that develop, along with potential for isolated
tornadoes, and has led to an outlook from SPC for a slight risk
across mainly the northwest half of our area. Despite rain chances
early and late, high temperatures still expected to make it back
into the upper 70s. As upper system moves eastward late evening and
overnight, have continued thunderstorm chances across the area, some
of which may continue to be strong to severe.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
By Tuesday morning the main shortwave trough should be lifting into
the upper Midwest, although there are some hints of some weak energy
hanging back across the central and southern plains. As this energy
potentially moves over the region a few of the models are generating
light QPF Tuesday afternoon and overnight with the lack of CIN, but
there is not much focus for lift. On Wednesday after some slight
mid level ridging moves east of the Rockies the lee side trough
develops and return flow becomes better established. Any
thunderstorm complexes that develop over the high plains have a
chance of moving eastward into the forecast area Wednesday through
Thursday night. Then a stronger shortwave drops out of the pacific
northwest into the central Rockies Thursday. As it lifts over the
plains on Friday and Saturday the chances for precip increases,
which has been a consistent solution for the past few days, so
will continue with the likely pops. The GFS is more aggressive
with tracking a decent surface low pressure over eastern KS, while
the ECMWF just brings a robust front through. Either way another
shot of widespread measurable rain looks to be on track for early
next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
Showers over east central KS are not making it north to I70, so
precip chances will have to wait for later tonight/Monday morning.
Storms over western KS may hold together into eastern KS during
that time. However, confidence is not high so went with VCSH
during morning. Then another chance for storms will occur Monday
evening. Have gone VFR tonight, but MVFR ceilings could develop,
so will have to watch for trends.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...GDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1228 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
The forecast issue tonight is how much rain will fall on the
flooded areas in the southeast part of the forecast area. At 19
UTC, a large-scale upper trough was moving northeast out of the
southern plains. The 12 UTC short-range models were in decent
agreement with the progression of the precipitation this evening.
Heaviest rainfalls should fall across Missouri sparing eastern
Kansas of heavy rainfall. However, it appears likely that a band
of showers and isolated thunderstorms should move through this
evening. The latest HRRR is consistent with previous runs in this
scenario as are the rest of the convective resolving meso-scale
models. Although widespread heavy rainfall is not expected, it
would not take much rainfall to cause more flooding problems.
Therefore, we will keep the flash flood watch going and we can
cancel it early if necessary.
Additional thunderstorms are developing over southeast Colorado
which the hi-res NAM brings east into our west counties late
tonight. Keep a small POP going along with clouds late tonight and
Monday morning.
Both the 12 UTC NAM/GFS bring an EML into northeast KS in the wake
of the ejecting upper trough. Model soundings suggest a decent
cap over the area on Monday with more than modest surface based
CAPE by afternoon. On the synoptic scale, a shortwave should once
again be moving through the southern plains, but it should be too
far south to impact our weather. Meanwhile, the models develop
convection near the synoptic boundary over parts of central KS/NE.
Will keep pops going for late afternoon development over our
northwest counties. The GFS has a deeper 500 mb low over the
central plains by next Sunday while the ECMWF is not as deep and
more progressive.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
The weather pattern remains unsettled through the forecast period
and we will have thunderstorms chances almost every period. The
large upper trough over the desert southwest slowly moves into the
central plains during the period. The 12 UTC ECWMF/GFS agree
with the general progression, but there are significant differences
in the details. At the surface, there will be a boundary in the
vicinity which will be heavily influenced by mesoscale influences.
Meanwhile, the Gulf of Mexico will remain open for business with
moisture advection into the central Plains. Will keep
thunderstorms chances going with more humid and warm weather close
to seasonal normal`s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
Showers over east central KS are not making it north to I70, so
precip chances will have to wait for later tonight/Monday morning.
Storms over western KS may hold together into eastern KS during
that time. However, confidence is not high so went with VCSH
during morning. Then another chance for storms will occur Monday
evening. Have gone VFR tonight, but MVFR ceilings could develop,
so will have to watch for trends.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Monday FOR KSZ026-039-040-
054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Johnson
LONG TERM...Johnson
AVIATION...GDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
325 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
KENTUCKY BETWEEN BROAD LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS AND HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE INVERSION IN PLACE OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY AND NATURE OF THE TERRAIN IS KEEPING THE WINDS
LIGHT TO CALM IN MOST PLACES. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SMATTERING OF
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS...HAS LED TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLITS ACROSS
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. READINGS CURRENTLY VARY FROM THE MID 50S
IN THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON THE
RIDGES AND IN MORE OPEN LOCATIONS. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE IN THESE
SITUATIONS...EKQ SHOWS THE RESULTS OF A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
WITH SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 17 KTS AND TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S AT
LAST OBSERVATION. WHILE DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS THEY ARE STILL ON THE RELATIVELY DRY SIDE RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 50S IN THE FAR EAST AND ON RIDGETOPS TO THE MID 50S IN OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES AND VALLEY LOCATIONS.
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL
DEPICT A SHARP RIDGE PUSHED FURTHER EAST FROM THE AREA IN THE
FACE OF A BROAD AND OPENING TROUGH CROSSING THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TODAY. A COUPLE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH
THE REGION JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF EAST KENTUCKY. THE FIRST OF
THESE GOES BY FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN FURTHER HEIGHT FALLS. AFTER A QUIET NIGHT...A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WAVE PASSES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE BODILY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL TROUGH/S
REMNANT CORE. THIS WILL BRING A DECENT MID LEVEL WIND FIELD
THROUGH THE AREA AS IT MOVES BY AND LIKELY FUEL STRONGER AND
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE STATE WHEN COMBINED WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE. HAVE FOLLOWED THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND NAM12 MOST CLOSELY
GIVEN THE OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT AND SMALLER SCALE NATURE OF THE
DETERMINANT FEATURES.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL START OFF QUIET ENOUGH FOR THIS HOLIDAY...
AND FOLLOWING SEVERAL DAYS OF NEAR PERFECT WX...BUT WILL LIKELY
TURN CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE BY MIDDAY STARTING IN THE WESTERN PARTS
OF THE CWA AND PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE EARLIER
HRRR RUNS AND HINTS WITHIN THE NAM12 SUGGESTED A POSSIBILITY OF A
STRAY SHOWER AROUND EAST KENTUCKY BEFORE 15Z IN ADVANCE OF THE
MAIN AREA BOTH MODELS DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE
OVERDONE...AND NOW DISCOUNTED BY THE LATEST HRRR...GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE
STATE. NEVERTHELESS...THEY DO AGREE ON A FAIRLY ACTIVE AFTERNOON
FOR MOST OF THE AREA AS THE LEAD MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE INITIATES
CONVECTION EARLY ON TO THE WEST AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
PROGRESSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO DO THE REST. THE
ACTIVITY WILL WANE EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE TIME OF TYPICAL CONVECTIVE MINIMUM.
RENEWAL OF ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY AS THE NEXT WAVE
BRUSHES BY ALOFT WITH A BETTER WIND FIELD AND AS MUCH...OR
POTENTIALLY MORE...INSTABILITY IN PLACE. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR
ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS AND THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL REST ON PARTIAL CLEARING AND THE ABILITY OF THE AIR MASS
OVER EKY TO OVERCOME ANY EARLIER STABILIZING EFFECTS OF
CONVECTION/DEBRIS FROM THAT MORNING/S LIMITED CONVECTION. WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS...AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
SPC OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...WILL HIGHLIGHT CONCERNS IN THE HWO...A
WEB HEADLINE...AND A HEADS UP EMAIL TO OUR PARTNERS. THIS SHOULD
ENSURE THAT DECISION MAKERS ARE NOT CAUGHT UNAWARE OF THE STORM
POTENTIAL COMING OFF A LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD AND WIND
GRIDS TODAY BEFORE WRAPPING UP WITH THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER FOR
TONIGHT MADE ONLY MINOR TERRAIN BASED CHANGES TO THE LOW
TEMPERATURES. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP A LITTLE HIGHER THAN EVEN THE
WETTER MAV MOS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. FOLLOWING THAT...THE POPS WERE
MOST SIMILAR TO THE LOWER MET NUMBERS TONIGHT AND IN LINE WITH A
BLEND OF THE FAIRLY HIGH GUIDANCE TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK QUITE ACTIVE...WITH REPEATED
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST. THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PERIODS LOOK TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE AIDED BY PEAK HEATING AND
MAXIMUM INSTABILITY REALIZATION. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A
LARGE SCALE PATTERN THAT WOULD FEATURE A SERIES OF LARGE SCALE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHS MIGRATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS AND SOUTHERN
CANADA. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES THAT WILL BE TRAILING FROM
THE SURFACE REFLECTIONS OF THE UPPER TROUGHS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO
TRAVERSE THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. THESE FRONTS WOULD ACT AS
THE PRIMARY TRIGGERS FOR SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY. TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE PERIODS...AS A SLUGGISH
COLD FRONT MEANDERS ABOUT THE AREA. A FEW OF THE STORMS TUESDAY
EVENING COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. THE ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF RAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE STILL ON TRACK TO BE
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE BOARD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING
HOURS ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AND BEGIN TO
LOWER DURING THE DAY AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TAKE SHAPE OVER
CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CIGS/VIS INTO THE AREA IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH ANY STORM. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING WITH A DIMINISHING TREND TO COVERAGE AND SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO THE CIGS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY REACHING 10 TO 20 KTS
FOR A TIME IN THE AFTERNOON AMID THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. LOOK FOR
THE WINDS TO SETTLE DURING THE EVENING FOLLOWING SUNSET.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1159 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT MOST AREA TERMINALS
ATTM...BUT THIS WILL MOST LIKELY NOT LAST LONG. MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE START OF THE 06Z TAF
PD AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS WITH REGARD TO WHETHER THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE PD...AS FORECAST MODELS DIFFER ON THIS
ASPECT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SELY WINDS 8-12 KTS THROUGH THE PD.
/12/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 838 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
DISCUSSION...
OUR REGION IS FEELING THE EFFECT OF MID ATMOSPHERIC DRY SLOTTING
AND THIS IS PROBABLY BEST OBSERVED ON THE 00Z FWD SOUNDING THIS
EVENING WITH MUCH DRIER AIR HAVING WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AT AND ABOVE THE 5KFT LEVEL. THIS IS TO BE
EXPECTED ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION WHICH
SWUNG THROUGH OUR REGION EARLIER. WHILE THE HEAVY RAINFALL WE
ANTICIPATED TODAY DID NOT MATERIALIZE...ITS IMPORTANT THAT WE NOT
LET OUR GUARD DOWN AS THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A POSSIBLY
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT COMING TO OUR REGION LATE TOMORROW INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.
FOR THE UPDATE...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. HRRR NOT SHOWING MUCH MORE DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT AND WHILE OUR FLOW ALOFT REMAINS SOUTHWEST...NOT SEEING
ANYTHING IN THIS FLOW TO TRIGGER MUCH MORE THAN SCATTERED
REDEVELOPMENT AT BEST. CURRENT TEMPS ARE VERY CLOSE TO FCST MIN
TEMPS OVERNIGHT AND WHILE THE CLEARING LINE ON IR IMAGERY THIS
EVENING IS RAPIDLY MOVING OUR WAY FROM THE WEST...SHOULD SEE THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP
OVERNIGHT TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO MUCH MORE.
ALL OTHER GRIDS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. UPDATED ZONE PACKAGE OUT
SHORTLY...13.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 70 83 69 85 / 40 70 90 40
MLU 70 83 70 83 / 40 70 90 80
DEQ 69 79 66 83 / 40 70 90 30
TXK 69 81 67 84 / 40 70 90 40
ELD 69 83 68 84 / 40 70 90 80
TYR 71 81 68 85 / 40 80 90 30
GGG 71 82 68 85 / 40 70 90 30
LFK 72 83 70 86 / 40 70 90 50
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ077.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
&&
$$
12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
140 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015
WE WILL HAVE PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAINS SHOULD COME TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THEN SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY RAINS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS
FROM 60 TO 65.
THE AREA SHOULD DRY OUT MID WEEK...THEN ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURE SHOULD REMAIN MILD...MAINLY 75 TO 80.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1034 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015
MAINTAINED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT WITH ONLY A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HRRR MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHOWERS
GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THE NOTION OF LIMITED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS BACKED BY
MODEL DATA INDICATING ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY TONIGHT DESPITE A
FORMIDABLE LOW LEVEL JET OF 40 KNOTS AND STRONG 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT.
HAVE 60-80 PCT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER TAPERING
TO 30-40 PCT CHANCES TOWARD INTERSTATE 94. DEEP LAYER WINDS ARE
OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TONIGHT WHICH WILL TEND TO KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST OF THE GRR FORECAST AREAS. THE NORTHWEST
CWA UP TOWARDS LUDINGTON STANDS THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
AN EMBEDDED STORM. THE JACKSON AREA COULD BE DRY MOST OF THE
NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD IN THE 60S FOR THE MOST PART TONIGHT AS
A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY BE PICKING UP TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A HIGH OFF THE EAST
COAST AND A LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. IT LOOKS
TO BECOME WINDY ON MEMORIAL DAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015
WILL HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THEN WE WILL GET WITHIN A DRY SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SOME SUNSHINE DEVELOPING. ANOTHER SURGE OF RAIN...POSSIBLY HEAVY...
MOVES IN TOWARD MID DAY TUESDAY AND LINGERS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
AN AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE WAS MOVING INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
AS WE ARE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THIS WILL
LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH 06Z BEFORE EXITING NE. THEREFORE WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT EXPECT HIGH RAIN CHANCES EVERYWHERE.
THE BEST MOISTURE POOLS OVER THE NORTHERN CWA DUE TO THE ISENTROPIC
LIFT FROM THIS AFTERNOON. SOME AREAS MAY SEE OVER A HALF INCH OF
RAIN NEAR HIGHWAY 10 TONIGHT. MEANWHILE THE I-94 CORRIDOR SHOULD
ONLY SEE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH. THERE MAY BE A FEW EMBEDDED
STORMS.
THE WARM FRONT SWINGS THROUGH DURING THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING. HOWEVER DRIER AIR ARRIVES
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE REDUCED TO
ISOLATED FOR THE AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD BREAK OUT INTO SOME SUNSHINE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS MAINLY DRY WARM SECTOR
SHOULD CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWEST MI MONDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AND ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT WILL BRING MORE RAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CLIMB WHICH MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. RAMPED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
OVERALL...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN WITH TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. BUT THERE IS THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED HEAVIER
RAINS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015
AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT RAIN EVENT A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT BUILD OVERHEAD WED AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY. NEXT CHANCE OF RAINFALL STILL ON TRACK FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. LATEST NWP
TRENDING STRONGER WITH NORTHERN STREAM WHICH RESULTS IN A MORE
PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM WITH LESS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AND A GOOD PUSH OF
SEASONABLY COOL CANADIAN AIR BY SUNDAY.
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN ECMWF AND GFS ON THE EVOLUTION
AND EVENTUAL SHEARING OUT OF THE WEST U.S. SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
BUT THEY HAVE MORE IN COMMON THAN NOT SO CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. EITHER SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN A ROUND OF
FRONTAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON
(GFS) OR ON SATURDAY (ECMWF). OVERALL ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER WITH
MORE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...THERE
WILL BE GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH PWATS ABOVE
1.5 INCHES.
SEVERE WEATHER WISE...SHEAR LOOKS TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR AT THIS
TIME WITH OVERALL RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW AND A
UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILE OVERALL. CAPE VALUES ARE A BIT BETTER WITH
500 TO 1500 J/KG DEPENDING ON AFTERNOON VERSUS MORNING FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015
FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON STRONG S/SW WIND GUSTS FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ESPECIALLY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS WILL BE MIXED DOWN TO THE SFC AS THESE WINDS ARE NOT MORE
THAN 500 FT OFF THE GROUND. SHOULD THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT SOON
ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 40 KNOTS ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. THESE WINDS WILL BE LOCATED ABOUT 2K FT OFF
THE GROUND AND THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR SFC GUSTS TO BE THAT
HIGH IN THE 18Z-21Z TIME FRAME.
THE CIGS/VIS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SHOWERS TODAY DO NOT LOOK TO BE
CATEGORIZED AS IFR...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR AFTERNOON
T-STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM BTL TO LAN AND JXN WHERE GREATER HEATING
COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015
WILL GET AN ADVANCED NOTICE AND ISSUE MARINE HEADLINES FOR MEMORIAL
DAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL RAMP UP LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AND WAVES
WILL BUILD BY MID MORNING MONDAY. WILL ALSO ISSUE A BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT FOR ANY WILLING TO GO OUT AND SWIM IN MID 40 DEGREE WATER
TEMPS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015
THREE MAIN ROUNDS OF RAIN ARE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...THE FIRST OF WHICH IS ARRIVING NOW. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF UP TO HALF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE UPPER MUSKEGON
BASIN AND PERE MARQUETTE BASINS. MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT LOOKS FAIRLY DRY. A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE BIGGEST HYDRO CONCERN COULD BE THE THIRD ROUND ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A MORE UNSTABLE AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE
MORE CONDUCIVE TO STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE ECMWF EPS...GEM...AND GFS AGREE THAT 2 TO
3 INCHES OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. RIVER RISES ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEK AND ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN IMMEDIATE
THREAT WILL BE MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING MIDWEEK WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
FLOODING RISK IS HIGHER NEXT WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS AND
ON SMALLER STREAMS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR MIZ056-064-071.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING FOR MIZ037-043-050.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
FOR LMZ847>849.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EDT TUESDAY
FOR LMZ844>846.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...COBB
AVIATION...HOVING
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
111 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE WRN CONUS WITH A LOW OVER SRN WY AND A RIDGE FROM THE SE CONUS
TO THE WRN LAKES. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LIFINT TO THE NNE TRHOUGH
FROM ERN IA WHILE ANOTHER TRAILED OVER OK. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WAS
LOCATED OVER SW IA WITH A WARM FRONT INTO NRN IL. A SURGE OF
MOISTURE (8 G/KG AND 850 MB DEWPONTS AROUND 12C) WITH STRONG 300K-
310K ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT SUPPORTED A LARGE AREA
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FROM SE MN THROUGH SRN WI INTO NRN IL.
VIS/IR LOOPS SHOWED THICKENING MID/HIGH CLOUDS INTO UPPER MI NORTH
OF THE AREA OF RAIN. TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
BUT HAVE FALLEN OFF N CNTRL AS A LAKE BREEZE MOVED IN.
RADAR TRENDS AND MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE AREA OF RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD THROUGH THE CWA FROM S TO N BTWN 23Z-06Z. SUPPORTED BY
MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300 QVECTOR CONV AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A JET OVER NRN ONTARIO...WIDESRPEAD MODERATE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH QPF FROM 1.0-1.5 INCHES THROUGH
MON. THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ARE EXEPCTED OVER THE SE WHERE THE
STRONGER MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS FOCUSED.
THE FIRST AREA OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF DURING THE MORNING
OVER THE SOUTH AND THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE TRAILING
SHORTWAVE FROM THE SRN WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL RAIN INTO THE WEST BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. NO THUNDER WAS MENTIONED...GIVEN LITTLE OR NO
FCST ELEVATED CAPE AND LACK OF LIGHTNING UPSTREAM.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS LIFTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS WEEK AS ADDITIONAL
TROUGHING MOVES OVER NORTHWEST CONUS. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...NW CONUS
TROUGH MOVES EAST AND MERGES WITH DEEPER TROUGH MOVING FM CNTRL
CANADA OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
LK SUPERIOR ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL DRAG A TROUGH ACROSS UPPER LAKES ON
TUESDAY AS IT MOVES TO QUEBEC. MOST RAIN WILL BE DONE BY 00Z TUESDAY
AS DRY SLOT MOVES IN FM THE SOUTH IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW
MOVING THROUGH. TRACK OF SFC LOW STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT SEEMS IT WILL
BE SOMEWHERE OVER CNTRL OR EASTERN LK SUPERIOR...COMPARED TO FARTHER
WEST TRACK MODELS WERE PREVIOUSLY INDICATING. RESULT WILL BE TO KEEP
EASTERLY COMPONENT WIND OVER THE KEWEENAW INTO THE EVENING AND THUS
A BETTER CHANCE OF FOG OR EVEN SOME DRIZZLE. SSW-SW WINDS ELSEWHERE
WILL LIMIT MOST OF THE FOG VCNTY OF LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE.
NEXT BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS
MODELS INDICATE SHORTWAVES CURRENTLY OVER FAR SOUTHERN CA AND IN THE
VCNTY OF UPPER LOW CENTER OVER INTERMOUNTAIN WEST COMBINE TO LIFT
ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES. MAY EVEN BE STRONG ENOUGH SYSTEM TO HELP
DEVELOP A SFC LOW PRESSURE. HEAVIEST QPF WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF
H85-H7 LOWS...WHICH IS NOT QUITE CLEAR. GFS FAVORS FAR WESTERN UPR
MICHIGAN WHILE GEM-NH AND ECMWF ARE MORE OVER CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT WITH MUCAPES OF AT LEAST 300 J/KG ECMWF
OR UP OVER 1000J/KG AS THIS WAVE LIFTS THROUGH...SO DID INCLUDE TSRA
MENTION ON TUE/TUE NIGHT. IF FARTHER WEST TRACK VERIFIES...POTENTIAL
IS THERE FOR SFC BASED TSRA TUE AFTN INTO TUE EVENING. MAX TEMPS ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH 70S INLAND WEST.
HOWEVER...EAST WINDS CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR AND SOUTH WINDS CLOSER TO
LK MICHIGAN WILL KEEP IT COOLEST IN THOSE AREAS DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW
AND ALSO LINGERING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OR TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF UPPER LAKES BY WED.
COULD BE WEAKER WAVE ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THAT INTERACTS WITH SOME
AFTN HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLD SHRA OR EVEN TSRA...MAINLY WEST. GEM-
NH AND ECMWF HINTING AT THIS...SO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES EVEN THOUGH
GFS FAVORS DRY CONDITIONS. LIGHTER WEST WINDS WILL ONLY BE LOCALLY
ONSHORE...SO MOST AREAS SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 70S AS H85 TEMPS
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TEENS C.
TROUGH ALOFT SETTLES OVER UPR LAKES ON THURSDAY WHILE MORE ORGANIZED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST FM THE NORTHWEST CONUS. SFC LOW AND
TROUGH WILL EDGE ACROSS UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY
THEN SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
TROUGH WILL THEN BE SHOVED SOUTH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPR GREAT LAKES. BEST SHOT OF SHRA AND POSSIBLE
TSRA ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE WEST THEN OVER ALL OF CWA
ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER AND SFC COLD FRONT SWEEP THROUGH. MODELS ALL
HAVE THE GENERAL IDEA OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT VARY ON WHEN
PASSAGE OCCURS. GFS IS QUICKEST WITH MOST OF AREA DRY BY FRIDAY
AFTN. ECMWF AND GEM-NH ARE SLOWER...BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH ON
FRIDAY OR EVEN FRIDAY NIGHT. NO MATTER WHICH SOLUTION IS
PREFERRED...APPEARS COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ON THE WAY NEXT
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 111 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT N ACROSS UPPER MI OVERNIGHT...
BRINGING DETERIORATING CONDITIONS. EXPECT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW TO FALL
TO LIFR OVERNIGHT. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THIS
AFTN. SOME IMPROVEMENT COULD OCCUR MID TO LATE AFTN AT KIWD/KSAW AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WSW BEHIND FROPA. IMPROVEMENT IS MORE
LIKELY TO OCCUR AT KSAW AS WINDS WILL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT.
MAY SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THERE IN THE EVENING...PERHAPS EARLIER.
MEANWHILE...MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA MAY RESULT IN VIS DROPPING TO VLIFR AT KCMX
THIS MORNING...BUT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN SUCH A LOW VIS
WITH RAIN PREVAILING. BETTER POTENTIAL FOR VLIFR WILL BE LATE THIS
AFTN/EVENING AS PCPN DIMINISHES OR ENDS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO AN
UPSLOPE WESTERLY DIRECTION.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015
LIGHT WINDS INCREASE ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LIFTS TOWARD LK SUPERIOR. EAST WINDS MAY REACH 25
KTS...STRONGEST OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. LOW SLIDES OVERHEAD ON
MONDAY NIGHT SO THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH. WINDS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BLO 20 KTS. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND IT SHOULD LINGER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE FOG MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES. ONCE IT IS EVIDENT
HOW EXPANSIVE THE FOG IS...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1204 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
.UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
TODAY HAS BEEN ABOUT AS MUCH OF A WASHOUT AS YOU CAN GET AS AN
ISENTROPICALLY FORCED RAIN SHIELD LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TO THE
NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT THIS AFTERNOON WAS APPROACHING I-80 DOWN
IN IOWA. MODELS OF BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC AND CAM VARIETY ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS BAND SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE STALLING OUT OVERNIGHT FROM WEST CENTRAL MN OVER TOWARD NW WI
AS A SFC LOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER SRN MN AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS INTO THE STATE. FOLLOWED THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE HOPWRF
MEMBERS AND HRRR WITH THE POPS IN BRINGING SOME LOW CHANCE POPS UP
THROUGH ABOUT THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS A DRY PERIOD LOOKS
TO GET ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS A MONTEVIDEO/TWIN CITIES/EAU CLAIRE LINE.
WHERE A FAIR DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY LIES IS WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THIS
BAND OF RAIN LIFTS NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND THE STRONG SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OK MOVES TOWARD WI. THERE
SHOULD BE A BAND OF MOD TO HEAVY RAIN THAT LIFTS NORTH WITH THIS
WAVE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...BUT WHERE IT GOES IS
WHERE THE UNCERTAINTY LIES. THE GFS AND CANADIAN BRING THIS BAND
ACROSS WRN WI WHILE THE NAM/ECMWF TAKE IT MORE TOWARD GREEN BAY. THE
SHORT TERM MODELS...WHICH NOW END MONDAY MORNING WOULD FAVOR THE ERN
SOLUTION BEING CORRECT. IF THAT IS THAT CASE...THEN A DRY SLOT WILL
RESULT IN A DRY MEMORIAL DAY OUTSIDE OF THE PERSISTENT RAIN BAND
ACROSS CENTRAL MN. THE GFS/CANADIAN SOLUTION WOULD HAVE YET ANOTHER
WASHOUT FOR FOLKS IN WRN WI. HARD TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BET WET OR
DRY...SO JUST REDUCED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY IN OUR EAST
MONDAY MORNING GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
OTHER CHANGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WAS TO REMOVE MOST OF THE THUNDER
MENTION AS WE JUST DO NOT SEE ANY INSTABILITY DEVELOP. THE LONE
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MN MONDAY AFTERNOON WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND 70...ALLOWING FOR A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG OF CAPE TO DEVELOP. CAMS ALSO SHOW THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
FIRING OFF STORMS IN WRN IOWA MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY START
GETTING NEAR THE I-90 CORRIDOR BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
FOR TEMPERATURES...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES PRETTY MUCH STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR HIGHS
TOMORROW...WITH CONTINUED LIGHT RAIN AND CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL MN
EXPECTED...DID DROP HIGHS DOWN TO JUST THE LOW 60S THERE...WHILE THE
RETURN OF SW WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON IN SRN MN SHOULD ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM CLOSER TO LATE MAY NORMALS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
WE PICK UP THE LONG TERM ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION ABOVE MENTIONED THE THREAT FOR THUNDER IN FAR SOUTHERN
MN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO EXACTLY
HOW FAR NORTH STORMS WILL END UP. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG
THE 12Z AND 18Z GUIDANCE THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL MAKE IT INTO
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TOMORROW WITH WEAK TO MODERATE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ARRIVING IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 21Z-
00Z. THE AVAILABLE CAM GUIDANCE /WRF-ARW...WRF-NMM...NAM NEST/
SUPPORTS A HEALTHY EAST-WEST ORIENTATED LINE OF CONVECTION
BREAKING OUT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON SOMEWHERE NEAR THE IA/MN IN
RESPONSE TO BUILDING INSTABILITY AND THE ARRIVAL OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
CAN`T RE RULED OUT AT THIS POINT.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOW TO CLEAR THE EASTERN FORECAST ON
TUESDAY...SO WE FELT IT WAS BEST TO LINGER THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI UNTIL BUILDING
HEIGHTS KICK THE FRONT TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THEREFORE...THE MIDDLE OF THIS COMING WEEK LOOKS DRY AT THE
MOMENT. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ANOTHER TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH MN/WI
LATE IN THE WEEK. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COULD SEE A COUPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN FALL GIVEN
ANOTHER SLOW FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PRIOR TAF. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE THE
LIMITING RESTRICTIONS...WITH IFR CIGS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE STATE.
POCKETS OF DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. HIRES MODELS CLEAR OUT
THE PRECIP BY MORNING...SO TAPERED OFF THE RAIN IN THE TAFS. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE ORIENTED SW/NE ACROSS THE REGION...SO NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH IMPROVEMENT UNTIL LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.
KMSP...
AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE...WITH CIGS FLUCTUATING AROUND
500FT. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY TAKE ON A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT BY MORNING...AND SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE 1700FT CEILINGS...BUT INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN A DRIER FORECAST.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS SW AT 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS SW AT 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR WITH SHRA/-TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SE AT 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...JRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
339 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS POPS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DIVIDE AND BECOME AN OPEN WAVE TO LIFT OUT
THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT HERE...EACH CREATE
DISTINCTIVE DIFFERENCE QPF PROJECTIONS IN THE NEAR TERM. THE
EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THE CLOSED LOW WILL INFLUENCE CONVECTION
TONIGHT WHERE HIGHER POPS GENERALLY MAINTAINED ACROSS THE NORTH.
TODAY TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARDS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S TO LOWER 70S. AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. THEN OVERNIGHT AS
BUILDING HEIGHTS PERSUE IN THE WEST SOME CLEARING TAKES PLACE ACROSS
THE WEST. TONIGHT COOLEST READINGS ACROSS THE WEST RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 40S IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE TO MIDDLE 50S NORTH CENTRAL.
THE NORTH PLATTE...SOUTH PLATTE AND PLATTE RIVERS REMAIN HIGH WITH
THE ADDITIONAL RAINS SUNDAY TO MAINTAIN HIGHER FLOWS. SEE THE LATEST
RIVER AND FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR MORE DETAILS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN
ROCKIES AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD ON TUESDAY. EXPECTING QUIETER WEATHER CONDITIONS AS
COMPARED TO MONDAY AS AN AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
DAKOTAS AND SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SOUTHERLY FLOW
GRADUALLY RETURNS TO WESTERN NEBRASKA LATE IN THE DAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING WEST OF THE CWA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTED
INTO THE PANHANDLE. NOT TERRIBLY CONFIDENT IN THIS OUTCOME GIVEN THE
LACK OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND A WELL DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARY TO
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION...BUT KEPT SLIGHT POPS
RUNNING FOR THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA GIVEN RUN
TO RUN PERSISTENCE IN THE MODELS.
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO
DIG SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. INCREASING DPVA ALOFT WILL
PROMOTE A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND
WYOMING...AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS.
STORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THE CAP WEAKENS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LEE SIDE TROUGH. A FEW SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE STORMS PUSH EAST GIVEN SURFACE BASED
CAPE VALUES AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER
ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS LACKING IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK UPPER
LEVEL FLOW. STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET AFTER DARK WILL HELP KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS GOING AS THEY PUSH EAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE WEST COAST
TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS
BY THE WEEKEND. DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF ALONG WITH
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL PUSH PWAT VALUES
CLOSE TO 1.25 INCHES...AND POSSIBLY HIGHER...OVER WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE A THREAT.
MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY ON THEIR THOUGHTS FOR THE WEEKEND.
EC/GEM SHOVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AND PUSHES IT WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...ADVECTING IN DRY CONDITIONS IN IT/S WAKE FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE GFS ALSO BRINGS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH BUT STALLS IT OUT
JUST TO OUR SOUTH...WHICH WOULD MEAN MORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
THE SREF AND SFC OBS SUGGEST VFR/MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS ALONG THE SD BORDER.
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING AND
SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. THE NAM...RAP AND HRRR INDICATE
RAIN WOULD LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT PERHAPS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS
ACROSS NWRN NEB. THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW ACROSS COLO
DRIFTING INTO NEB SUPPORTING CONTINUE RAIN MONDAY MORNING WHICH
WOULD LIKELY REDEVELOP A TSTM COMPLEX MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WHATEVER RAIN DEVELOP MONDAY AFTN WOULD LIKELY DECREASE 03Z-06Z
MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KECK
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1145 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
THERE HAS NOT BEEN A LOT OF PCPN AROUND THIS EVENING...IT HAS BEEN
MOSTLY VERY LIGHT AND ISOLATED. WE DO EXPECT AT LEAST SOME INCREASE
IN PCPN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...SIMILAR TO RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR.
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL OFF MUCH
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. A VERY WEAK
WARM FRONT HAD LIFTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS THIS MORNING...BUT THOSE HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WERE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS...AND THIS WILL THE PRIMARY ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE EVENING. INSTABILITY IS AGAIN MARGINAL TODAY AND THIS
WILL MOSTLY BE SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE
HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. THE BETTER FORCING AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AS A UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE RAP KEEPS THE BEST
PRECIP CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...AS WELL AS
WESTERN NEBRASKA CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. WILL PLAY POPS THAT WAY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT...WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS
THE REGION...AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...SCATTERED SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AS A REINFORCING WARM FRONT MOVES INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. AGAIN...SHOULD MOSTLY BE SHOWERS...BUT
A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE AND WEAKLY NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES
COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
OTHER THAN SOME MINOR POP MODIFICATIONS...GOING FCST LOOKS ON TRACK
THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. FORTUNATELY MODELS ARE IN QUITE GOOD
AGREEMENT BULK OF ACCUMULATING PCPN WILL BE FOUND WELL EAST OF THE
CWA. NEVERTHELESS...POTENTIAL FOR SOME PCPN WILL STILL EXIST EARLY
ON IN THE FCST PD.
BEGINNING MONDAY AFTN...MODELS IN AGREEMENT ADVERTISING
INCREASING BNDRY LYR THETA-E ADVECTION COUPLED WITH VIGOROUS
LITTLE VORT MAX WILL ALLOW FOR QUICK ENVIRONMENTAL DESTABILIZATION
OVER THE REGION. CONVECTIVE INITIATION ENSUES JUST NW OF THE CWA
ALONG AXIS OF LLVL THETA-E CONVG/INVERTED SFC TROF BEFORE ACTIVITY
QUICKLY EXPANDS EWD INTO THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING...EXPECT PCPN TO EXIT THE CWA AS UPPER VORT
MAX TAKES BEST LIFT/MOISTURE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
TURNING TO WEDNESDAY...UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS
WILL FINALLY BRING PLEASANT CONDITIONS BACK THE REGION WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND HIGHS TOPPING OUT AROUND 80.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
LARGE SCALE FLOW PER ECM/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND SHOWING A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS
GRADUALLY MIGRATING EAST AND EVENTUALLY REACHING THE CNTRL PLAINS ON
FRIDAY. CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE ON TAP THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED
PDS IN RESPONSE TO PROLONGED MOIST UPGLIDE AND INCREASING UPPER
SUPPORT VIA APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROF. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THRU FRIDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND HIGHS ONLY IN
THE MID/UPPER 60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
EXPECT THAT CEILINGS WILL DETERIORATE BACK DOWN INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATER TONIGHT
WIHT SOME RESTRICTION TO VSBY AS WELL. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...
AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS...AND MAINLY AT KLNK AND KOFK. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS AT THIS POINT. WILL INCLUDE A PROB30 GROUP FOR SHOWERS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...DEWALD/DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1131 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. A
SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. A WARM FRONT IS
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE LOW
INTO WEST TX. DRY SLOT WRAPPING INTO THE UPPER LOW HAS ALLOWED PART
OF WESTERN NEBRASKA TO SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPS GENERALLY IN
THE 60S...WARMEST WHERE THERE HAS BEEN MORE SUN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST AND OPEN UP. BY TOMORROW
MODELS HAVE 2 UPPER LEVEL LOWS...ONE OVER MINNESOTA AND ON OVER
SOUTHWEST NEB. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST/NORTHEAST
ONTO THE PLAINS.
WEATHER TONIGHT...WILL FOCUS ON ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN LOW. THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO SHOULD ROTATE INTO SW NEB OVERNIGHT AND COULD
PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH.
BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS NEARLY SATURATED AND WILL LIKELY SEE A
REDEVELOPMENT OF SOME FOG AND DRIZZLE.
TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPLITS AND ONE CENTERS OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA...SHOULD SEE SOME SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AS PWATS CONTINUE TO HOLD AROUND 1 INCH OR
EVEN HIGH IN THE EASTERN ZONES...MOVEMENT WILL ALSO BE SLOW AND SOME
TRAINING IS POSSIBLE. BEST INSTABILITY IS TO THE EAST AND THE STRONG
TO SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME
SMALL HAIL AS FREEZING LEVELS LOWER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
THE SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AND REDUCE THE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION.
AS WIND RETURNS TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY...A TRAJECTORY FROM THE TEXAS
GULF COAST DEVELOPS AND BRINGS ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO WESTERN NEBRASKA
ONCE AGAIN. WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -2C TO -6C AND CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL OF 1500-2500J/KG...STRONG UPDRAFTS CAN BE EXPECTED BUT
SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 20-25KT. HOWEVER...
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND AN INCH...HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A THREAT.
WITH THE FRONT STALLED ACROSS IOWA AND NEBRASKA...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CONSIDERATION INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
PIVOTS THROUGH. THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BUT IT WILL
NOT GET TOO FAR SOUTH BEFORE LOW PRESSURE FORMS ON THE FRONT AND
LIFTS MOIST AIR INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA THROUGH SATURDAY AND INTO
SATURDAY EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
THE SREF AND SFC OBS SUGGEST VFR/MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS ALONG THE SD BORDER.
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING AND
SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. THE NAM...RAP AND HRRR INDICATE
RAIN WOULD LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT PERHAPS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS
ACROSS NWRN NEB. THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW ACROSS COLO
DRIFTING INTO NEB SUPPORTING CONTINUE RAIN MONDAY MORNING WHICH
WOULD LIKELY REDEVELOP A TSTM COMPLEX MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WHATEVER RAIN DEVELOP MONDAY AFTN WOULD LIKELY DECREASE 03Z-06Z
MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER AND PLATTE RIVER ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
IS HOLDING STEADY FOR NOW...HOWEVER THE NEXT PUSH OF WATER IS MOVING
ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AND WILL MOVE INTO NEBRASKA EARLY IN THE
WEEK. ANOTHER RISE OF RIVER IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME THIS
CREST IS ANTICIPATED TO BE LOWER THE ONE THAT MOVED DOWN THE RIVER
OVER THE PAST WEEK. PERIODIC CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN EXIST OVER THE
NEXT WEEK AND MAY CAUSE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE FORECAST...WHICH WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WILL COMBINE WITH SEASONAL SNOW
MELT AND CAUSE THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER UPSTREAM OF LAKE MCCONAUGHY TO
RISE. AT THE GAUGE SITES...NO FLOODING IS EXPECT AT LISCO HOWEVER AT
LEWELLEN NEAR BANK OR MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. ISSUED A FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR NOW AS THE FORECAST BRINGS THEM TO THE FLOOD STAGE OF
7.5 FEET.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...CDC
HYDROLOGY...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
321 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK BRINGING INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE EACH
DAY THROUGH LATE WEEK. DRY BUT HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS FORECAST
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ONE OF PERSISTENCE. A STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CREST ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TODAY WITH ITS AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WITH ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES IN ITS
ORIENTATION AS IT RIDGES BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE MORE SIGNIFICANT THROUGH TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL RESULT IN MORE CLOUD COVER. STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS
ATOP THE MIXED LAYER TODAY AND THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
TONIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. MOISTURE PROFILES ALSO SHOWING MORE IN
THE WAY OF HIGHER CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
OFFSHORE.
SOME OF THE MODELS ARE PORTRAYING THE EASTERN EDGE OF DEVELOPING
CONVECTION BRUSHING THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PEE DEE THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE PORTRAYING NIGHTTIME CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE AND THEN MOVING ONTO THE COAST LATE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DO INCREASE TO AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF
INLAND AND AN INCH ON THE COAST DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE
DISTRIBUTION OF THIS MOISTURE...EVEN INLAND...WHERE THE MOISTURE IS
GREATEST AND DEEPEST...SHOWS A GREAT DEAL OF DRY AIR PERSISTING IN
THE MID LEVELS. AT THIS TIME...WILL REFRAIN FROM INCLUDING EVEN
SMALL POPS ANYWHERE...BUT WILL SHOW THEM INCREASING TO NEAR
THRESHOLD ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PEE DEE REGION OF SC.
THROUGH MIDDAY...THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS A FEW OCEAN SHOWERS ADVECTING
ONTO LAND SOUTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER AND THEN RIDING UP TO OUR
SW AND W AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH. HOWEVER...IT IS
NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT A FEW OF THESE FAST MOVING SHOWERS WILL SKIRT
COMMUNITIES ALONG AND W OF A CKI TO UDG LINE THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE PREDOMINATELY FROM THE SE...10 TO 20 MPH. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS A LITTLE TIGHTER TODAY AS COMPARED TO SUNDAY
SO WOULD EXPECT WINDS WILL GUST HIGHER MORE FREQUENTLY. HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE IN THE MID 80S INLAND AND LOWER 80S AT THE COAST. THE
DIURNAL CURVE WILL FLATTEN ONCE THE BEACHES REACH THE UPPER 70S LATE
THIS MORNING. TONIGHT...MOST LOCATIONS WILL OBSERVE LATE NIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH THE BEACHES AROUND 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS INCREASING HUMIDITY INTO MID-
WEEK. ALTHOUGH NOT EXACTLY A TEXTBOOK BERMUDA-HIGH
PRESSURE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST
WITH RETURN FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS COMBINES WITH AN
AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MOVING EAST...TO PRODUCE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AND SHOWER CHANCES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE TUESDAY WILL BE PRIMARILY DRY THANKS TO A
SUBSIDENT INVERSION AND VERY DRY MID-LEVELS...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RAMP UP WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND
MOIST ADVECTION INCREASES. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE
I-95 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY WHERE PWATS CLIMB TOWARDS 1.9 INCHES...BUT
EVEN THERE ONLY SCHC POP IS WARRANTED...WITH SOME LOW-END CHC
DARLINGTON/MARLBORO/ROBESON COUNTIES. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE
DIURNALLY FORCED.
TEMPS BOTH DAYS WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO WITH WIDESPREAD MID-TO-UPR
80S...LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 70 AT
THE COAST...MID 60S WEST OF I-95.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...CONTINUATION OF THE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN FOR
THE EXTENDED AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPINS OFFSHORE AND RIDGES BACK
TOWARDS THE COAST. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL ACTUALLY PEAK THURSDAY AS
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND PWATS APPROACH 2 INCHES...BUT
ONCE AGAIN THE FAVORED AREA FOR PRECIP WILL BE THE INLAND HALF OF
THE CWA. FRI-SUN...RIDGE RE-AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ALTHOUGH
NOT QUITE TO THE EXTENT AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE LOW-
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE BLOSSOMS FURTHER AND DRIVES 850MB TEMPS TO
AROUND 16C. SO...WHILE PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE INTO THE
WKND...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WITH WIDESPREAD 90S LOOKING MORE
LIKELY FOR NEXT WKND...ALTHOUGH BEACH COMMUNITIES WILL BE A SOLID 10
DEGREES COOLER. WITH THE SUBSIDENT RIDGE IN PLACE PREVENTING ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT CONTINUED ADVECTION OF HIGH DEWPOINT AIR...IT
MAY BEGIN TO FEEL PRETTY UNCOMFORTABLE AROUND THE AREA NEXT WKND.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS THE
TERMINALS FROM THE ATLANTIC THIS TAF VALID PERIOD...THUS WILL
CONTINUE WITH A PERSISTENT TYPE FORECAST. E-SE WINDS EXPECTED EARLY
THIS MORNING...EXCEPT AT KFLO/KLBT AND KILM WHERE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM. AFTER SUNRISE WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE BECOMING OCCASIONALLY GUSTY AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS BY
LATE MORNING. THE PERSISTENT SE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH A BIT MORE CLOUDS AT A SLIGHTLY
LOWER LEVEL EXPECTED AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
CONCERNING FOG POTENTIAL IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...HIGH PRESSURE
SURFACE AND ALOFT...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...CLEAR SKIES AND
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...ALL SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR FOG
ESPECIALLY AT KFLO/KLBT AND KILM WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST. BUT
THERE IS A LAYER OF MOISTURE NEAR 4K THAT COULD REDUCE RADIATIONAL
COOLING AS WELL AS 10-15 KT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS THAT COULD KEEP THE
LOW LEVELS MIXED. WILL LEAVE TEMPO MVFR IN TAFS ATTM BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PATCHY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS TUE THROUGH FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...SE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A
BERMUDA RIDGE HOLDS SWAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO
15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN STEADY...3 TO 4 FT.
A WEAK 8 TO 9 SECOND E TO ESE SWELL WILL CONTINUE.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD AROUND OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE CREATES RATHER CONSISTENT CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-WEEK.
AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH...WINDS WILL BE SE OR SOUTH WITH ONLY MINOR
FLUCTUATION...AND SPEEDS NOT DEVIATING MUCH FROM 10-15 KTS. THESE
WINDS WILL DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS TO 2-4 FT...WITH SOME CONTRIBUTION
FROM A 7-8 SEC SE GROUND SWELL INCREASING LATE IN THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK TOWARDS THE WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS PRODUCES A WEAK GRADIENT...AND SE WINDS BECOMING MORE
EASTERLY ON FRIDAY...WITH SPEEDS OF ONLY AROUND 10 KTS. THESE
RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CAP WAVE HEIGHTS AT 2-4
FT...WITH A SE GROUND SWELL AND WEAK WIND WAVE COMPRISING THE
SPECTRUM.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RJD
MARINE...RJD/JDW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
527 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE UNDERNEATH A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MID WEEK. EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL INTERACT WITH THE
MOISTURE TO BRING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT TO A POSITION ALONG THE EAST
COAST TODAY. DEEPER MOISTURE FUNNELING NORTHWARD BETWEEN THE HIGH
TO THE EAST AND A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL RESULT IN
AN INCREASING CLOUDS. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN EMBEDDED
S/WV WHICH IS FORECAST TO PIVOT NORTHEAST FROM THE MID MS VLY TO
THE WRN GREAT LAKES. A VORTICITY AXIS ALOFT WILL COMBINED WITH A
SUBTLE CONVERGENT AXIS IN THE LOW LEVELS TO BRING THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC AND
NCEP/ESRL HRRR RUNS...LIKELY POPS ARE PROBABLY NEEDED FOR THE FAR
WRN ZONES FROM MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. DIURNAL HEATING
AND A MORE MIXED ATMOSPHERE SHOULD TRANSITION THE PLUME OF
MOISTURE (AXIS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS) TO A SCATTERED
DISTRIBUTION AS IT HEADS EAST. ANOTHER WEATHER ELEMENT TO CONSIDER
TODAY WILL BE THE WINDS. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SOME MIXING OF STRONG WINDS
ALOFT...WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 40 MPH FAR
NORTHWEST WITH DIMINISHING SPEEDS (AROUND 20 MPH) IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST. DESPITE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...MOST AREA SHOULD REACH
THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE WEIGHTED THE FORECAST BETWEEN THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z GFS AND
AVAILABLE HIGH RES/CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS.
FOR TONIGHT...THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL WANE THIS EVENING AS
S/WV AND SUBTLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT AXIS PIVOT NORTH AND EAST.
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE CONFINED MORE TO OUR SRN ZONES.
BY LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING...INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL PUSH DEEPER MOISTURE BACK TO THE NORTH. SOME LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL SPREAD CHANCE POPS BACK TO THE NORTH AS WELL.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.
FOR TUESDAY...MODELS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER EMBEDDED S/WV IN THE
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME MODELS...SUCH AS THE
ECMWF...INDICATE ANOTHER POSSIBLE CONVERGENT AXIS. THE DEEP
MOISTURE (PWATS BETWEEN 1.50 AND 1.80 INCHES) WILL INTERACT WITH
AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN LIKELY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT PART OF OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS REMAIN IN A MARGINAL RISK. IT LOOKS LIKE
THAT IT MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO OBTAIN LOW END MODERATE SHEAR/LOW
END MODERATE INSTABILITY. ALSO..GIVEN TALL SKINNY CAPES PER MODEL
SOUNDINGS...THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE LOW. THE FLOW IS
MODEST IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS...SO IF SOME STORMS CAN ORGANIZE
INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS...SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS...POSSIBLE SEVERE
GUSTS...MAY OCCUR. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LOW THREAT FOR SVR
IN THE HWO.
FOR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED S/WV
MOVES NORTHEAST FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER S/WV APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
ON WEDNESDAY. THE WEDNESDAY S/WV WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. WE SHOULD SEE A DIURNAL MIN IN CONVECTION BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND THEN ANOTHER UPTICK DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND HUMID WITH LOWS IN THE
60S AND HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WHILE PCPN CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF ANY EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVES...WILL TRY TO SHOW SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT TO THE
PCPN CHANCES FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. INITIALLY THIS
WILL LEAD TO A LITTLE MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF LULL IN THE PCPN CHANCES. A
BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN WILL THEN RETURN LATER FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THIS
WILL EVENTUALLY HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN TOWARD OUR AREA
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
SLOWER ON THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS SO
AM HESITANT TO GO ANY HIGHER THAN CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE POPS AT
THIS POINT.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...SOME MORE SEASONABLE
READINGS MAY RETURN FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS SPREADING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MORNING WITH 925-850MB LAYER FLOW UP TO 50KTS AT TIMES AS THIS LOW
LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM SHIFTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SCT-BKN MID CLOUD AND
CIRRUS ARE ON THE INCREASE OVER OH/IN/KY...AND A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN SPREADING STEADILY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER IN KY/IN
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
EXPECT THE THREAT FOR AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE UP INTO
SWRN OH BY ABOUT 08Z THOUGH EXPECT ACTIVITY TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND
LIKELY JUST VIRGA/SPRINKLES. DID KEEP VCSH GOING FOR A TIME ACROSS
ALL BUT THE CNTL OHIO SITES THROUGH MID MORNING AS THIS ACTIVITY
MOVES THROUGH. CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR.
BIGGER STORY IS STRONGER FLOW WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET. THIS SHOULD
BEGIN TO MIX TO THE SURFACE AROUND 12Z WITH GUSTS BECOMING COMMON.
EXPECT THE STRONGEST GUSTS THIS MORNING /BEFORE 17Z/ WITH ONSET OF
HEATING AND PRESENCE OF STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT...AND SOME GUSTS
TOWARD 30KTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THOUGH WILL KEEP TAFS IN
THE 25-27KT RANGE. DID NOT PLACE LLWS IN TERMINALS DUE TO GRADUAL
INCREASE IN SPEEDS/LACK OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 2KFT.
WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE SOME MECHANICAL TURBULENCE ESPECIALLY IN
THE 08Z-11Z TIMEFRAME BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASE TO
DECREASE SPEED SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 2KFT.
AFTER 18Z...COMBINATION OF FORCING FROM WEAK SHORTWAVE AND
DEEPENING MOISTURE SHOULD PROMOTE SHOWERS/STORMS IN SCT FASHION
INTO EARLY EVENING. WEAKLY/LOOSELY FORCED SO WILL KEEP VCSH
MENTION FOR NOW. EXPECT MID CLOUDS AND DECREASING/BACKING FLOW
THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS SHOWERS WANE.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...BINAU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
353 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS FOR THE
START OF THE WEEK. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FORECAST AREA IS IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY. BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS SHOW A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA 18Z-00Z TIME
FRAME. A MODERATELY STRONG 850MB JET OVER INDIANA SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH
SOME OF THE HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR INTO THE REGION. THE DEEPER MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO PREDICT BUT THE HRRR MODEL KEEPS THE COVERAGE FAIRLY
SCATTERED. I WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE FOR
TODAY. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE AND I WILL NOT STRAY FAR
FROM THESE VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING ON
TUESDAY WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
MORE WIDESPREAD ON TUESDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY. THE GFS SHOWS THE HEAD
OF AN 850MB JET PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN OHIO IN THE AFTERNOON ON
TUESDAY AND THIS COULD TRIGGER SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION. SPC HAS A
SLIGHT RISK REGION JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
WFO CLE AREA HIGHLIGHTED AS MARGINAL. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. A BRIEF RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO SHIFT TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY...
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. AMPLE SUN SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH TOWARDS THE
AREA. MODELS HAVE CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN TIMING THE FRONT WITH THE
00Z/25 GFS RUNNING NEARLY 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM.
HAVE SIDED WITH THE BETTER CONSENSUS FOR NOW AND KEPT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAIRLY LOW ON FRIDAY NIGHT...RAMPING UP AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES ON SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO ADJUST FRONTAL TIMING
AS MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEK. THE FRONT
APPEARS TO STALL OVER THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN SETTING UP.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS OUT OF THE PLAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL APPROACH THE TOL/FDY AREA BY 16Z...FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE
HOUR WINDOW WHERE THERE WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE...REACHING CLE/MFD TOWARDS 20Z AND CAK/YNG/ERI BETWEEN
21-02Z. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AND WILL LIKELY NOT
IMPACT EVERY SITE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WHERE BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE. SOUTHERLY WINDS RAMP
UP TO 15-20 KNOTS BY 15Z WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS THROUGH 23Z.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MON NIGHT THROUGH WED IN SCT SHRA AND
TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BRISK TODAY WITH WINDS WEST OF VERMILION
APPROACHING 20 KNOTS. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY COOL WATER
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THE WAVE RESPONSE TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO HOLD
OFF FOR NOW ON ISSUING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE
ON WINDS THIS MORNING AND MAY NEED TO ISSUE FOR THE AFTERNOON IF
WINDS CREEP UP HIGH ENOUGH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.
WINDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GARNET
NEAR TERM...GARNET
SHORT TERM...GARNET
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
137 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS ALLOWED FOR PLEASANT CONDITIONS THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS HAS CONTINUED TO PULL EAST TODAY ALLOWING FOR
WARMING CONDITIONS ALONG WITH RISING HUMIDITY. AS THE RIDGE AXIS
SLOWLY MOVES EAST INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...MOIST...SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ALOFT TO BRING THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AMPLIFIED MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EAST
AND FLOW OVER OHIO VALLEY BACKING SRLY LATE TONIGHT. LEADING EDGE
OF CONVECTION SHOWING UP ON RADAR MOSAIC LIFTING NORTH INTO
CENTRAL TN. HRRR AND RAP SOLNS SHOW THIS CONVECTION WEAKENING
AND PUSHING INTO ILN/S SW COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED
ORIENTATION AND SPEED OF PCPN AND WITH WITH LACK OF INSTBY HAVE
LIMITED MENTION TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT.
WITH SRLY WINDS STAYING UP AND INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN WAA PATTERN
TEMPERATURE WILL BE MILDER TONIGHT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 60S NE TO THE UPPER 60S SW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO BECOME
DISLODGED MONDAY ALLOWING FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO PUSH EAST AND THE
CHANCE OF RAIN TO RETURN TO THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST WITH A
LINE OF PVA SLOWLY MOVING EAST. THIS THIN LINE OF PVA WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH RES MODELS ARE SHOWING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG THIS LINE OF POSITIVE
VORTICITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING LOWER END INSTABILITY
WITH K INDEX VALUES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. THIS ALL SUPPORTS
CHANCE POPS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. IT
WILL ALSO BE WINDY MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH
SOME OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES POSSIBLY SEEING SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE
20 KTS.
BEHIND THE INITIAL WAVE OF PVA THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A BRIEF
BREAK IN THE RAIN. ON TUESDAY THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THAT
SWINGS THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS THAT EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL FINALLY HELP TO CLEAN UP THE FLOW AND MOVE THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ROCKIES TO THE EAST. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER AREA OF POSITIVE VORTICITY OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES. THE JET
STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO PUSH TO THE EAST
PUTTING THE AREA INTO A RRQ. SPC HAS THE SW PART OF THE CWA IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FOR TUESDAY HAVE CAPE VALUES JUST ABOVE 500 J/KG. INSTABILITY IN
THE SOUNDING STILL IS TAKING ON A SKINNY CAPE. THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE FOR WIND BUT THIS THREAT STILL REMAINS PRETTY LOW AT THIS TIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION FOR MID WEEK WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WHILE PCPN CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON THE
TIMING OF ANY EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES...WILL TRY TO SHOW SOME DIURNAL
ENHANCEMENT TO THE PCPN CHANCES FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. INITIALLY THIS
WILL LEAD TO A LITTLE MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF LULL IN THE PCPN CHANCES. A
BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN WILL THEN RETURN LATER FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN TOWARD OUR AREA SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER ON THE TIMING
OF THIS FRONT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS SO AM HESITANT TO GO ANY
HIGHER THAN CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE POPS AT THIS POINT.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...SOME MORE SEASONABLE
READINGS MAY RETURN FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS SPREADING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MORNING WITH 925-850MB LAYER FLOW UP TO 50KTS AT TIMES AS THIS LOW
LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM SHIFTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SCT-BKN MID CLOUD AND
CIRRUS ARE ON THE INCREASE OVER OH/IN/KY...AND A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN SPREADING STEADILY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER IN KY/IN
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
EXPECT THE THREAT FOR AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE UP INTO
SWRN OH BY ABOUT 08Z THOUGH EXPECT ACTIVITY TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND
LIKELY JUST VIRGA/SPRINKLES. DID KEEP VCSH GOING FOR A TIME ACROSS
ALL BUT THE CNTL OHIO SITES THROUGH MID MORNING AS THIS ACTIVITY
MOVES THROUGH. CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR.
BIGGER STORY IS STRONGER FLOW WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET. THIS SHOULD
BEGIN TO MIX TO THE SURFACE AROUND 12Z WITH GUSTS BECOMING COMMON.
EXPECT THE STRONGEST GUSTS THIS MORNING /BEFORE 17Z/ WITH ONSET OF
HEATING AND PRESENCE OF STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT...AND SOME GUSTS
TOWARD 30KTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THOUGH WILL KEEP TAFS IN
THE 25-27KT RANGE. DID NOT PLACE LLWS IN TERMINALS DUE TO GRADUAL
INCREASE IN SPEEDS/LACK OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 2KFT.
WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE SOME MECHANICAL TURBULENCE ESPECIALLY IN
THE 08Z-11Z TIMEFRAME BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASE TO
DECREASE SPEED SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 2KFT.
AFTER 18Z...COMBINATION OF FORCING FROM WEAK SHORTWAVE AND
DEEPENING MOISTURE SHOULD PROMOTE SHOWERS/STORMS IN SCT FASHION
INTO EARLY EVENING. WEAKLY/LOOSELY FORCED SO WILL KEEP VCSH
MENTION FOR NOW. EXPECT MID CLOUDS AND DECREASING/BACKING FLOW
THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS SHOWERS WANE.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...HAINES/AR
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...BINAU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
456 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
.DISCUSSION...
FLOOD WATCH SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FROM 4 PM TO
NOON TUESDAY.
UPPER WAVE HAS ROUNDED THE BEND FAR WEST TEXAS
AND IS HEADED FOR SOUTHEAST OK. A WIDE SPECTRUM
MODEL SOLUTIONS...WITH GFS SHUNTING BULK PRECIP
TO SOUTHEAST WHILE ECMWF PLACES MAX PRECIP OVER
WATCH AREA. EVER WET CANADIAN MODEL PLACES MORE
THAN 2 INCH PRECIP OVER ALL OF SOUTHEAST OK AND
WEST CENTRAL AR IN A...6 HOUR PERIOD..ENDING AT
06Z! LATEST HRRR RUNS GIVE CREDENCE TO GENERAL
ECMWF SOLUTION. ALMOST ANY PRECIP FROM THUNDER
WILL BE CAPABLE OF 1 INCH/ 30 MIN RAINFALL RATE
AND INITIATE FLOODING. STAY INFORMED STAY TUNED.
MOST PRECIPITATION WILL OVER BY TUESDAY MORNING.
NO REAL BREAK..THE REST OF THIS SHORT WORK WEEK
WITH CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDER MENTIONED EVERY DAY.
MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN COMING OVER THE
WEEKEND (OF COURSE) AS YET ANOTHER POTENT UPPER
WAVE MOVES FROM THE WESTERN STATES INTO PLAINS.
GW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 81 63 82 65 / 40 40 20 50
FSM 81 64 82 68 / 50 90 30 40
MLC 78 64 82 68 / 80 60 20 40
BVO 81 60 82 62 / 30 30 20 50
FYV 78 62 79 62 / 30 80 30 40
BYV 80 64 80 63 / 30 80 30 40
MKO 78 63 81 66 / 50 60 20 50
MIO 79 63 81 63 / 30 50 20 50
F10 77 61 80 65 / 60 50 20 50
HHW 78 64 82 67 / 80 80 20 40
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-
OKZ053-OKZ069-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-
ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TORNADO LOCATION S OF I-44
NWS NORMAN OK
416 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
.DISCUSSION...
ADDITIONAL FLOODING...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TODAY...REMAIN THE MAIN CONCERNS.
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN GREAT SHAPE TODAY AND DID NOT ALTER.
THIS MORNING...WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. THINK CAPPING
WILL NOT ALLOW FOR STORM FORMATION.
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FROM A POTENT FAST MOVING MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE/SHORT WAVE THAT WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST TODAY AND
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS...PARTICULARLY
THE HRRR AND WRF MODELS...SUGGEST THAT A FAST MOVING LINE
BAND...BOW...OR LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND AFFECT
MUCH OF THE AREA. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES NEAR A WICHITA FALLS TO DURANT LINE. THIS
COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY AFFECT FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS NEAR KNOX
CITY AND CROWELL AS EARLY AS 11 AM THEN EXIT THE PONCA CITY AND
DURANT AREAS TOWARDS 9 PM. THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA WILL MOST
LIKELY BE AFFECTED IN THE 3 TO 6 PM TIME FRAME.
IN REGARDS TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONCERNED WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
OF 1 INCH OR MORE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE LINE OF STORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE VERY RAPID RUNOFF AND
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT THINK TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE EXCESSIVE...GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES AS THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST. THUS...KEPT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN
EFFECT.
IN REGARDS TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND
EVENT NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF I-44 WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 70 MPH. THE
AIR WILL BE MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.3 TO 1.8
INCH RANGE AND VERY UNSTABLE...MLCAPE 2000-4000 J/KG...ALONG WITH
STRONG 0-6 KM 30-50 KT SHEAR. THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES DUE TO INCREASING 0-1 KM SHEAR IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE
SOUTHEAST OF I-44. SOME SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR AS WELL...BUT SIZES
MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF THE LARGE LINE OR
BOW OF STORMS. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS
AHEAD OF THE MAIN BOW OR LINE...BUT THIS POTENTIAL SEEMS TO BE
QUITE LOW.
STORMS SHOULD MAINLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR STORMS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORT WAVE/DISTURBANCE SHOULD LIMIT STORM FORMATION.
SOME PATCHY FOG COULD FORM LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BUT
DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE...THOUGH
SHOULD BE LOWER THAN TODAY DUE TO SLIGHTLY WARMER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAPPING. THE AIR WILL BE VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH MARGINAL SHEAR SO A FEW SEVERE STORMS
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING REMAIN POSSIBLE.
STORM COVERAGE AND MOTION SHOULD BE LOWER COMPARED TO TODAY. WILL
NOT EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE LOWER
COVERAGE OF STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL GET CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...STORM CHANCES CONTINUE NEARLY EACH DAY.
MORE HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING...AND SEVERE STORMS COULD
OCCUR NEARLY EACH DAY AS THE AIR WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 79 63 81 64 / 70 20 20 50
HOBART OK 77 59 82 61 / 50 20 20 40
WICHITA FALLS TX 78 63 85 65 / 90 20 20 20
GAGE OK 79 56 80 57 / 20 20 30 20
PONCA CITY OK 80 61 80 62 / 30 20 20 50
DURANT OK 79 65 83 67 / 90 40 20 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OKZ008-012-013-
016>020-022>032-035-037>048-050>052.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ085-086-088>090.
&&
$$
23/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
915 PM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR THE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE AREA AND EXPECT LITTLE
IF ANY ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. ON MONDAY...AN UPPER LOW OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTH WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY EAST OF THE CASCADES AND OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. EXPECT BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST KLAMATH, SOUTHERN
LAKE, SOUTHEAST SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES. THIS IS WHERE MODELS
SHOW INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA MEETING THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/00Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INITIALLY...BUT AREAS
OF MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING. THOSE
AREAS WILL CLEAR TO VFR BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY...BUT
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS MAY OBSCURE SOME HIGHER
TERRAIN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER
SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES IN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND
LAKE COUNTIES IN OREGON.
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 130 PM PDT SUNDAY 24 MAY 2015...HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL STRENGTHEN INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS TO THE
WATERS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST SEAS WILL OCCUR IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH AND BETWEEN 10 NM AND 40
NM OFFSHORE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 PM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
UPDATE...RADAR IS SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND MODOC COUNTY AS WELL AS NORTH INTO
KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. HAVE INCREASED THE COVERAGE OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS BASED ON THE RADAR AND LATEST RAP MODEL OUTPUT.
SHOWERS ARE LOW TOPPED AND EXPECT ONLY SOME LIGHT RAIN WITH THESE
SHOWERS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE LINGERING WEST SIDE CLOUD COVER AND THE AFTERNOON
ONSHORE FLOW ALREADY SPILLING OVER THE CASCADES THE MODELS
INDICATION OF INSTABILITY OVER THE CASCADES LOOKS VERY UNLIKELY.
WITH THAT HAVE JUST KEPT TO SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY WITH VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FROM ANY THAT DO
DEVELOP. SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO FEED WARM MOIST AIR UP THE
SACRAMENTO VALLEY THIS EVENING. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW UP THE
SACRAMENTO VALLEY CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...WITH THE
FLOW MEETING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MOUNT SHASTA REGION AND
EASTWARD. THE STRONG THETA-E CONVERGENCE WILL COMBINE WITH
INSTABILITY OVER THAT AREA WITH WESTERLY STEERING WINDS SHOWING
MARGINAL STRENGTH TO PUSH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP EAST OFF THE
TERRAIN. THE FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH A SIMILAR PATTERN OF INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE IN THE SAME
LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN
AND OFFSHORE FLOW ON THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COAST, HAVE BUMPED UP
BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS ABOUT HALFWAY FROM GUIDANCE TO FULL ADIABATIC
HEATING IN DOWNSLOPE FLOW. /SVEN
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED AND THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
DECREASED FOR THURSDAY AS THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT ON A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE WEST COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON
THURSDAY THEN REACH A PEAK WITH A FEW ADDITIONAL DEGREES OF
WARMING FOR FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY, A LIGHT LOW AND MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE RIDGE AND SURFACE THERMAL
TROUGH PUSH FARTHER INLAND. BESIDES AIDING THE WARMING, THIS WOULD
BRING A MODEST INCREASE OF 700-500 MB MOISTURE. THE COMBINATION OF
THOSE TWO ELEMENTS WARRANTS THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AWAY FROM THE
COAST.
FOR NEXT WEEKEND, IT IS UNCERTAIN TO WHAT EXTENT OUR WEATHER WILL BE
INFLUENCED BY BOTH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND ANOTHER TROUGH OFFSHORE FROM OREGON. AS IS ITS TYPICAL
BIAS, THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF. THE
GFS SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN A FEW TO SEVERAL MORE DEGREES OF
COOLING BUT ALSO AN INCREASED PROBABILITY OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUS, WITH THE MODEL DIFFERENCES,
THE PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON SUNDAY THAN
ON SATURDAY. /DW
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
PZZ356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY
FOR PZZ356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
PZZ350-370.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY
FOR PZZ350-370.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ376.
$$
CC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
453 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
.DISCUSSION...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
EAST INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING. A LEAD SHORTWAVE
IS CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE MID SOUTH EARLY
THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AREAS
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS MORNING. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL DRY OUT TEMPORARILY LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
AS A PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRY SLOT ROTATES ACROSS THE REGION.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DURING THIS PERIOD
AND DECENT SURFACE HEATING SHOULD OCCUR AND HELP TO DESTABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE AGAIN BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR 80 DEGREES ACROSS EASTERN AREAS TO THE
MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA AREAS.
ANOTHER DISTINCT SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING. THERE
REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AMONG THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
WITH THE GFS AND NAM/WRF RUNS SUGGESTING AN EARLIER ARRIVAL
COMPARED TO THE LATEST ECMWF. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT AN
EARLIER ARRIVAL FALLS IN LINE WITH THE OVERALL DAILY MODEL RUN TO
RUN CONTINUITY ALONG WITH THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR OUTPUT.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHICH
SHOULD EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO A LINE AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.
LATEST PREFERABLE MODEL OUTPUT WITH EARLIER TIMING SUGGESTS THAT
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL AGAIN DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SBCAPE VALUES
RISING TO BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG BY 00Z TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...AS
THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THIS EVENING EXPECT 0-1 SRH TO INCREASE
TO BETWEEN 200-300 M^2/S^2 AS LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN BACKED TO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH A VEERING PROFILE WITH HEIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET WINDS
ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS WILL OVERSPREAD WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. LARGE SCALE ASCENT
WITH THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP QUICKLY BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND SPREAD
QUICKLY NORTHEAST AS A QUASI LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (QLCS) INTO
AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS EVENING. LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN ADVANCE OF THIS LINE. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
AGAIN FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL AGAIN
BE DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.
THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES. THERE MAY
BE A FEW ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IF
REALIZED WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING. THEREFORE...HAVE
CONTINUED AND EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE MID
SOUTH THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY.
AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY
MORNING...THE AREA WILL BE LEFT UNDER AN AREA OF BROAD UPPER
TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW TO OUR
NORTHWEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY BUT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNORGANIZED THROUGH THE DAY AS FOCUSED LIFT DIMINISHES AND DEEP
LAYER WIND FIELDS WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED LATE IN THE
WEEK BUT WITH A CONTINUED TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO MAINLY DIURNALLY FORCED CONVECTION.
A FEW PULSE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS AS STRONG
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS BUT WITH WEAK WIND FIELDS. ANY STORM WILL BE
SLOW MOVING AND COULD ALSO PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES ALONG WITH CONTINUED HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND AND MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUATION AND
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM WITH HUMID WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
JLH
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
NUMEROUS SHRAS AND ISOLATED TSRAS WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS RIVER THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. KTUP AND KMKL STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING LOWER
CONDS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING THOUGH INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR MVFR
CIGS AT KJBR AND KMEM EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT
ROUND OF SHRAS AND TSRAS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO KJBR AND KMEM
MONDAY EVENING.
SJM
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR BENTON TN-
CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-
HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
441 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015
.DISCUSSION...As of 4:30 AM CDT Monday...Complicated forecast for
this morning into the early aftn. Water vapor imagery is indc a
potent shortwave in Northern Chihuahua rounding the base of the
trough in the southern Rockies. IR imagery is indc a baroclinic
leaf structure with rapidly cooling cloud tops in Southwest TX.
Convection has developed in the Plains north and east of the Davis
Mtns and in the Western and Southern Permian Basin. While
initially having a hard time getting going has now started to
intensify. Even though there is decent low level CIN...latest
Mesoscale Analysis is indc good MLCAPE and very steep mid level
lapse rates of 8C/KM. KMAF VAD Profile is indc a 40+ kt low level
southerly jet as well. The HRRR has been very consistent in
developing strong convection and moving it into the Permian Basin
and the Low Rolling Plains this morning. The HRRR is indc very
impressive rain rates along with training cells. SPC has the
Permian Basin and Low Rolling Plains in a slight risk with the
main severe threat large hail. This will continue to be monitored
thru the morning hours.
After passage of the shortwave low amplitude ridging will move
over the Southern Plains. This will bring dry weather tonight
thru Tuesday night. With H85 temps increasing along with downslope
low level winds temps should reach into the 90s across the Plains
with 80s in the mtns.
Yet another mid/upper low...currently near 28/143...will open into
a trough and will move in the subtropical jet to near northern
Baja by Wed morning. This will turn the mid/upper flow to
southwest and will allow low level moisture to stream into the CWA
from the Gulf of Mexico. Impulses moving in the flow aloft...
combined with the low level moist flow out of the Gulf of Mexico
will bring at least a chance of convection across most of the CWA
from Wednesday right thru next weekend as our wet pattern
continues.
Strobin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 84 59 90 63 / 30 0 0 10
BIG SPRING TX 86 63 91 68 / 40 10 0 10
CARLSBAD NM 86 53 91 57 / 10 0 0 10
DRYDEN TX 93 63 93 71 / 20 10 10 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 87 60 93 66 / 20 0 0 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 76 57 82 60 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 82 55 88 60 / 10 10 0 10
MARFA TX 78 43 85 52 / 10 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 86 59 92 66 / 30 10 0 10
ODESSA TX 86 61 92 66 / 30 10 0 10
WINK TX 87 57 95 65 / 20 0 0 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
84/33
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
432 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight )
...Heavy rainfall and severe storms possible today beginning early
this morning...
A strong upper trough will pass trough West Central Texas this
morning, with strong lift associated with it. The atmosphere was
already unstable with SPC RAP most unstable CAPES of 2000-3000 J/KG.
0-6KM bulk shears were 40-50 KTS. Large hail and damaging winds are
possible, even the potential for a tornado. The main threat, however
will be locally heavy rainfall of 1 to 3 inches, as precipitable
water increases to 1.0-1.5 inches. Heavy rainfall on already
saturated soils will have the potential for flash flooding. A flash
flood watch is in effect through 4 PM CDT.
Most of the high resolution models develop a band of thunderstorms
over I-20 corridor...from Sterling City to Brownwood this morning,
mainly after 7 AM. Another second area of storms may develop east
off the mountains of Mexico... possibly affecting the Junction to
Mason to San Saba areas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may
continue in the Big Country in the afternoon with more isolated
storms farther south. While the Big Country and southeast sections
will likely have highest potential for thunderstorms, just about
anywhere in West Central Texas will be at risk for severe storms
today with the strong instabilities present.
Kept a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over eastern
sections tonight. Most of this will be in the evening hours.
&&
04
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday-Wednesday)
Dryline thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday and Wednesday during
the late afternoon and evening as temperatures climb into the 90s.
Moderate to high CAPE values and a low shear storm environment will
provide the threat for isolated strong updrafts that could result in
a few storms producing large hail and damaging winds.
(Thursday-Friday)
As a broad upper level trough of low pressure moves into Northern
Mexico, it will result in dryline afternoon and evening
thunderstorms each day. A cold front moving south through the
Central Plains could send an outflow boundary into West Central
Texas on Friday, providing another focus for thunderstorm development.
Max temperatures will be a little lower because of more cloud cover.
(Saturday-Sunday)
The previously mentioned cold front meandering across the region could
bring another threat for storms over the weekend with temperatures
in the lower 80s.
&&
26
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 80 63 90 69 89 / 70 10 20 10 20
San Angelo 85 63 93 69 91 / 50 10 20 10 20
Junction 84 65 91 70 89 / 70 20 20 10 20
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 4 PM CDT this afternoon FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...
Crockett...Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...Mason...
McCulloch...Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Schleicher...
Shackelford...Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom
Green.
&&
$$
04/26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1157 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
.AVIATION...
COULD SEE SOME MVFR CEILING AND POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT AT SOME
OF THE SITES OVERNIGHT. GOING WITH VCSH FOR POSSIBLE MID MORNING
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...THEN TSRA FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE NEXT
BATCH OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPS AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THINGS QUIET
DOWN TOMORROW EVENING AS ACTIVITY COMES TO AN END. 42
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR THE TIME
BEING. WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WOULD EXPECT LOW STRATOCUMULUS
DECK TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SO HAVE GONE WITH JUST A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF RAIN AND SKY BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. LOWERED MIN
TEMPS A TAD AS ALREADY OBSERVING TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO FORECAST
MINS. WITH TEMPS NEAR THE DEWPOINTS SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN
SHELTERED AREAS...BUT THINK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WOULD SUPPORT MORE
OF A LOW STRATUS DECK THAN FOG.
STILL ON TRACK FOR STORMS ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL. THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW
PROGRESSIVE/FAST MOVING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS. IF IT TRACKS
QUICKLY LIKE THIS MORNINGS STORMS...ANY FLOODING WOULD BE MORE THE
NUISANCE VARIETY. IF TRAINING OF CELLS OR REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND
INITIAL LINE WERE TO OCCUR FLOODING COULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANT.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS AN INDICATION OF THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING
GIVEN THE SATURATED SOILS...ELEVATED STREAM FLOWS AND POTENTIAL
FOR HIGH RAIN RATES...BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY.
IT DOES APPEAR THAT SEVERE THREAT MIGHT BE A TAD HIGHER THAN WITH
THIS MORNINGS STORMS...GIVEN MORE FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY AND MORE
INSTABILITY...WHILE CONTINUING WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES.
46
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SEEING SOME SCT TSRA REDEVELOP ACROSS N PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE
HEATING AND RRQ OF DEPARTING JET ARE WORKING THEIR MAGIC.
ANTICIPATE THESE TO TAPER OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. IN THE
MEANTIME...CAN STILL SEE SOME ISO STRONG STORMS/DOWNPOURS THAT`LL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.
OVERNIGHT SYSTEM MADE MUCH QUICKER EWD PROGRESS THAN EXPECTED
YDAY AND IS WELL INTO CNTL LA. (FASTER NAM12 ACTUALLY DID A
RESPECTABLE JOB). ALSO SEE NO LINGERING SFC BOUNDARY ALONG I-10
ON CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS THAT SOME MODELS WERE INDICATING FOR
TONIGHT - SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AS
ONSHORE FLOW AND LLJ FEEDS INTO IT. ONLY CANADIAN AND POSSIBLY LATER
SPC HRRR RUNS DEPICT SUCH A SCENARIO NOW - THE REST (INCLUDING
ECMWF) KEEP THE REGION MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT. THIS GIVES US A BIT
MORE CONFIDENCE IN A DRIER OVERNIGHT PERIOD THAN EARLIER - BUT
STILL NO GUARANTY. HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWERED POPS IN RESPONSE.
NEXT IMPULSE SEEN ON W/V IMAGERY IN SRN NEVADA WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE STATE MONDAY. EXPECT THIS DISTURBANCE TO TRIGGER ANOTHER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO OUR WEST. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING
INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TOWARD MID MORNING AND ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ISSUED
ANOTHER FF WATCH FROM MID MORNING INTO THE EVENING MON FOR
LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW FAST THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT AND SOME LOCATIONS
MIGHT SEE PRECIPITATION CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. IN GENERAL...EXPECT
1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE WATCH AREA AND LESS SO FURTHER
SOUTH. LOCALIZED HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE TRAINING CELLS
OCCUR...AND ALSO IF THE EVENT DRAGS ON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THIS WATCH WILL NEED TO BE EXPANDED IN TIME IF IT DOES.
IN ADDITION TO TRAINING STORMS...DYNAMICS W/ THIS SYSTEM ALSO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND
TORNADOES BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. GROUNDS ARE WET AND TREES ARE
MORE PRONE TO BE BLOWN DOWN WITH LESS INTENSE WINDS THAN THEY
MIGHT OTHERWISE.
SPOKE ABOUT THE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT MON NIGHT REGARDING TIMING OF
THE EXIT OF PRECIP. WILL JUST NEED TO WATCH TRENDS. REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK WOULD ANTICIPATE SCT (MAINLY AFTN/EVNG) PRECIP EACH
DAY ACROSS INLAND AREAS. ANOTHER TROF APPROACHES THE NEIGHBORHOOD
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ALONG W/ HIGHER POPS UNFORTUNATELY. 47
MARINE...
LOOKS LIKE A REPRISE FROM WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAYS AND
GULF WATERS UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TONIGHT AND LIKELY UNTIL MONDAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO WEAKEN A BIT TONIGHT...BUT THEN
TIGHTEN BACK UP ON MONDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AGAIN MONDAY EVENING. FOR
THE MOST PART EXPECT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE WINDS COULD DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BELOW 21
KNOTS TONIGHT AT LEAST OVER THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS.
REGARDING THE TIDES...GALVESTON CHANNEL AND THE NORTH JETTY BOTH
RECORDED TIDE LEVELS OF ABOUT REACHED ABOUT 1.2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS DURING THE TIME OF THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE EARLIER TODAY.
TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER LATE TOMORROW MORNING
DURING THE HIGH TIDE TIME. EVEN SO...WAVE RUN UP COULD STILL PRESENT
SOME PROBLEMS WITH MINOR FLOODING ON LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE GULF
FACING BEACHES OF THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON ON MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 72 84 71 87 74 / 20 90 70 30 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 72 84 72 87 74 / 20 80 60 40 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 76 84 78 85 78 / 20 80 60 20 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...
COLORADO...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...LIBERTY...MADISON...
MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
WALLER...WASHINGTON.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...46
AVIATION/MARINE...42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1142 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015
.UPDATE...FOR THE MIDNIGHT AVIATION FORECAST PACKAGE UPDATE.
UPDATE...ISSUED AT 940 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN BOTH INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THIS
EVENING AS INSTABILITY WANES WITH SUNSET. INITIAL LOOK THRU 00Z
NAM/HRRR DATA SUGGESTS THAT THERE SHOULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL WEAK
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT
PASSES NR THE WY/NE STATELINE AS WELL AS INTO THE WRN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE BY SUNRISE ON MONDAY. THINK THAT THIS IS SOMEWHAT
OVERDONE...BUT STILL FELT IT WAS ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST
SCATTERED MENTION TO POPS THRU THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
LOOK FINE...THOUGH DID INCREASE OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO IN
SPOTS AS CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS/DEW POINTS FROM FALLING
MUCH FURTHER.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015
ALTHOUGH REGIONAL RADARS SUPPORT LIGHT TO PERHAPS OCCASIONALMODERATE
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...NO LONGER ANTICIPATE IMPACTS ASSOCIATED
WITH FLASH FLOODING ACROSS NRN CARBON/ALBANY AND CONVERSE COUNTIES
TONIGHT. THEREFORE...WAS CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO LET THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH EXPIRE FOR THESE AREAS AT 6 PM.
OTHERWISE...STILL MONITORING POCKETS OF CONVECTION ACROSS
PRIMARILY THE NRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHERE LATEST SPC MESONALYSIS
SHOWS 500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE REMAINED. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE
CASE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE CONVECTION STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED TO WANE CONSIDERABLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXPANDED IN COVERAGE SINCE THE
EARLIER FORECAST UPDATE...WITH MODERATE RAINFALL OBSERVED AT
TIMES ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL NEAR CHEYENNE. ACTIVITY IS INCREASING
OVER THE NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND CENTRAL CONVERSE COUNTY AS
WELL...WITH SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS OBSERVED ON RADAR. COULD
STILL SEE SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS OUT OF THIS ACTIVITY SO
WILL MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THE STRONGEST STORM SO FAR
THOUGH IS OVER NORTHERN SIOUX COUNTY WITHIN THE SLIGHTLY MORE
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. IT CONTINUES TO TREK EAST TOWARD DAWES
COUNTY WITH FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT THESE TRENDS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE CWA
AND WILL WEAKEN. SIMILARLY...THE SFC LOW WILL STEADILY TREK
NORTHEAST WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NNW BEHIND THE LOW. OVERALL
FLOW SHOULD REMAIN ON THE WEAKER SIDE TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF FOG
REDEVELOPING OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH THE NW FLOW
IN PLACE...DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE CWA WHICH
WILL REDUCE OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MONDAY. HOWEVER...COOLER AIR WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN
OVERHEAD SO EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WITH
ISO-T LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN FEATURES.
A WEAK TRANSITORY RIDGE LOOKS TO MOVE OVERHEAD FOR TUESDAY
BRINGING WARMER TEMPS TO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SFC WINDS VEERING BACK TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE CWA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE AND HIGHER
TEMPS SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AGAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR TERRAIN FEATURES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AS LARGE
SCALE TROUGHING REMAINS INTACT ACROSS THE WESTERN US. A FEW EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES WITHIN MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH PERIODS
OF LLVL UPSLOPE WILL PROMOTE DAILY CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THROUGH AT
LEAST THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. GENERALLY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW / LESS
THAN 25 KTS AT H5 / WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON
THE LOW SIDE...BUT THE GFS SUGGESTS SBCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG ACROSS A
LARGE PART OF THE EASTERN PLAINS ON WED-THU. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY
SEVERE STORM...BUT ANYTHING ORGANIZED APPEARS UNLIKELY. EXPECT DAILY
HIGHS TO HOLD FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THE EXTENDED GIVEN A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE. H7 TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND 5 C SUGGEST
HIGHS IN THE 65 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE FOR MOST AREAS. RIDGING ALOFT AND
A PUSH OF DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH DIPPING
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST MAY GIVE US A BREAK FROM PRECIPITATION AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015
KEPT TREND OF DROPPING VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS INTO IFR CATEGORY
FOR CHADRON...ALLIANCE AND SIDNEY WHERE WRAP AROUND LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY LIGHT RAINS ARE INDICATED TO CONTINUE IN THE HRRR AND NAM
THROUGH MORNING...WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DROPPING INTO
MVFR AT SCOTTSBLUFF...CHEYENNE...LARAMIE AND RAWLINS THROUGH
MORNING. FOR CHEYENNE...HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON
BATCH OF RAIN MOVING SOUTHWEST OUT OF THE SCOTTSBLUFF
AREA...MOVING IT TO NEAR CHEYENNE BY DAYBREAK...SO AROUND 10Z WE
BROUGHT IN SOME LIGHT RAIN FOR CHEYENNE BUT DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO GO IFR ON CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...AS THE LOW CLOUDS START TO SHOW SOME BREAKS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON MONDAY WE EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND EITHER HAVE VICINITY THUNDER OR CARRIED
THUNDER FOR ALL SITES IN THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS INTO EARLY
EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 408 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AND
WILL BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES ACROSS THE DISTRICT.
WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE ANTICIPATED...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
EXPECTED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 408 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015
FORECAST RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL AVERAGE
BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
WITH THUNDERSTORMS. RUNOFF FROM THIS RAINFALL WILL MAINTAIN HIGH
WATER LEVELS ALONG THE LARAMIE RIVER AT LARAMIE AND NEAR FORT
LARAMIE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER AND FLOOD
STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC INFORMATION.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CAH
SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...RJM
HYDROLOGY...MJ/RJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
651 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
.AVIATION...25/12Z TAF CYCLE
EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS WL PERSIST THIS MRNG...RESULTING IN MVFR/OCNL
IFR CIGS ACRS THE FA. INCRSG SLY WINDS BY MIDDAY WL ALLOW FOR A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDS THIS AFTN. WL SEE A LULL IN RAIN
CHCS INTO EARLY THIS AFTN. SCTD CONVECTION WL THEN BEGIN TO DVLP...
WITH VCTS INCLUDED. ANY ORGANIZED AREA OF SHRA/TSRA WL AFFECT THE
AREA FM THE W LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY TNGT. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDS
WITH THIS SYS...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. /44/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 503 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
A VERY TRICKY FORECAST WITH HIGH BUST POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY IN
REGARDS TO THE QPF. MOST MODELS HAVE SCALED BACK ON QPF EXPECTED
TONIGHT IN THE NATURAL STATE...HOWEVER THEY ALL DO HAVE HEAVY RAIN
FORECAST OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME TONIGHT. CONSIDERING THIS...DO
STILL FEEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS WARRANTED.
TODAY...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE SEEN AROUND THE STATE THIS MORNING
WITH SOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SEEN. MAY EVEN SEE A BIT OF
SUN TODAY. WITH THAT WILL SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
80S. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR CAPE VALUES TO
INCREASE TO WELL OVER 1000 J/KG...0-1 SRH WILL INCREASE TO OVER
100 TO 150 M^2/S^2. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH BEST
CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN AND SW ARKANSAS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
MODELS DO CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND THE
STATE THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...THE HRRR AND WRF BOTH HINT AT A
SIMILAR SOLUTION WITH TWO COMPLEXES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND EAST CENTRAL TEXAS. THE ECMWF
MOST CLOSELY RESEMBLES THIS SOLUTION...SO FOR QPF WENT WITH A
ECMWF/SREF BLEND. THIS RESULTED IN QPF AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 4 INCH
RANGE AROUND THE STATE...WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS ACROSS SW ARKANSAS.
THE GFS AND GEM ARE BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AMOUNTS IN
THE STATE...AND SOME OF THE MEMBERS OF THE SREF PLUMES DO HINT AT
SOME HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WHICH CONTINUES TO LEAD TO THE
UNCERTAINTY. BUT AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK THAT
THE 00Z TO 06Z TIMEFRAME WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL...AND
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY.
BEYOND THIS TIMEFRAME...THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES SOMEWHAT LESS
AMPLIFIED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINING AT THE SURFACE. AS A
RESULT...CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
AT...OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
RESIDUAL MOISTURE WL RMN ABUNDANT ACRS THE REGION THRU THE PD. A
WEAK UPR LVL TROF WL SLOLY APCH THE REGION FM THE W LATER NEXT
WEEK...WITH SCTD CONVECTION MENTIONED EACH DAY. RAIN CHCS WL ALSO BE
ENHANCED LATE IN THE PD BY A WEAK CDFNT THAT WL WORK INTO AR. DID
NOT STRAY TOO FAR FM MOS TEMPS...WHICH LINE UP RATHER WELL WITH
CURRENT FCST.
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
YELL.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
503 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
A VERY TRICKY FORECAST WITH HIGH BUST POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY IN
REGARDS TO THE QPF. MOST MODELS HAVE SCALED BACK ON QPF EXPECTED
TONIGHT IN THE NATURAL STATE...HOWEVER THEY ALL DO HAVE HEAVY RAIN
FORECAST OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME TONIGHT. CONSIDERING THIS...DO
STILL FEEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS WARRANTED.
TODAY...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE SEEN AROUND THE STATE THIS MORNING
WITH SOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SEEN. MAY EVEN SEE A BIT OF
SUN TODAY. WITH THAT WILL SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
80S. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR CAPE VALUES TO
INCREASE TO WELL OVER 1000 J/KG...0-1 SRH WILL INCREASE TO OVER
100 TO 150 M^2/S^2. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH BEST
CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN AND SW ARKANSAS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
MODELS DO CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND THE
STATE THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...THE HRRR AND WRF BOTH HINT AT A
SIMILAR SOLUTION WITH TWO COMPLEXES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND EAST CENTRAL TEXAS. THE ECMWF
MOST CLOSELY RESEMBLES THIS SOLUTION...SO FOR QPF WENT WITH A
ECMWF/SREF BLEND. THIS RESULTED IN QPF AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 4 INCH
RANGE AROUND THE STATE...WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS ACROSS SW ARKANSAS.
THE GFS AND GEM ARE BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AMOUNTS IN
THE STATE...AND SOME OF THE MEMBERS OF THE SREF PLUMES DO HINT AT
SOME HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WHICH CONTINUES TO LEAD TO THE
UNCERTAINTY. BUT AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK THAT
THE 00Z TO 06Z TIMEFRAME WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL...AND
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY.
BEYOND THIS TIMEFRAME...THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES SOMEWHAT LESS
AMPLIFIED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINING AT THE SURFACE. AS A
RESULT...CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
AT...OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
RESIDUAL MOISTURE WL RMN ABUNDANT ACRS THE REGION THRU THE PD. A
WEAK UPR LVL TROF WL SLOLY APCH THE REGION FM THE W LATER NEXT
WEEK...WITH SCTD CONVECTION MENTIONED EACH DAY. RAIN CHCS WL ALSO BE
ENHANCED LATE IN THE PD BY A WEAK CDFNT THAT WL WORK INTO AR. DID
NOT STRAY TOO FAR FM MOS TEMPS...WHICH LINE UP RATHER WELL WITH
CURRENT FCST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 80 65 80 66 / 40 80 70 20
CAMDEN AR 82 68 85 69 / 80 90 50 30
HARRISON AR 79 62 80 63 / 30 80 30 40
HOT SPRINGS AR 80 67 83 69 / 70 90 40 40
LITTLE ROCK AR 83 66 84 68 / 50 90 50 30
MONTICELLO AR 83 68 83 68 / 80 90 80 30
MOUNT IDA AR 78 64 82 67 / 70 90 40 40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 80 63 81 64 / 30 80 50 30
NEWPORT AR 82 67 80 67 / 40 80 80 20
PINE BLUFF AR 82 68 82 68 / 70 90 60 30
RUSSELLVILLE AR 81 65 83 66 / 50 80 40 40
SEARCY AR 81 65 81 65 / 40 80 60 30
STUTTGART AR 83 66 83 68 / 50 80 70 30
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
YELL.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65 / LONG TERM...44
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1005 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1004 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
A FEW SHOWERS LINGER EAST OF I-55...BUT THESE WILL BE EXITING OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS. HAVE KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POP`S EAST OF I-57
INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY BE DRY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY ALREADY
NORTHWEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER...AND A LARGER HOLE IN THE CLOUDS
OVER NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY AFTERNOON PER THE RAP MODEL...ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHEAST
CWA WILL LIKELY SEE MORE PERSISTENT CLOUDS. HAVE HAD SOME GUSTS
40-45 MPH AROUND DECATUR AND CHAMPAIGN ON THE LATEST OBS...BUT THE
HRRR MODEL SHOWS THESE HIGH WINDS SHIFTING INTO INDIANA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
LOW PRESSURE CENTER STILL WELL OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING...AND A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE IL/WI BORDER THIS
MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER STILL IN THE
REGION, BUT MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS IN THE SOUTHEAST AS WELL AS THE
NW. ILX SITUATED IN A GAP AS THE MAJORITY OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO LIFT NORTH AND NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. MODELS PRETTY CONSISTENT
WITH THE MOVING OUT OF THE SYSTEM, WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLY AT LEAST THROUGH MIDDAY. ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT WITH THE INCREASING INSTABILITY AFTER SUNRISE...BUT MAJORITY OF
THE ACTIVITY SCOURS OUT IN ALL OF THE MODELS SHORTLY AFTER MIDDAY.
LINGERED SOME SLIGHT CHANCES AFTER 18Z TO COVER AT LEAST THE
POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY WITH ANY REMNANT MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES.
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY STILL WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD IT GET THE
CHANCE TO RECOVER/RESTRATIFY. HOWEVER, A SMALL AREA OF MIDLEVEL
RIDGING BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING MAY GIVE US ENOUGH
SUBSIDENCE TO COUNTER THE EFFECTS...SO HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT WITH THE
END OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE EARLY EVENING AND DROPPED THE POPS
BACK DOWN BEFORE 06Z. EITHER WAY...WINDS ALOFT WITH THE PASSING OF
THE SHORTWAVE AND DAYTIME MIXING WILL RESULT IN SOME GUSTY WINDS
TODAY...GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH BY MID DAY AND SLOWLY BACKING OFF AS
THE LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
FORECAST REMAINS WARM AND MUGGY WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT. REGION DOMINATED BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE UPPER TROF IN THE SW
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PATTERN
MID WEEK IS ONLY TEMPORARY AS TEMPS REMAIN WARM WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE ONLY REINFORCED BY PERIODIC SHOWERS ENHANCING THE BOUNDARY
LAYER RH. YET ANOTHER SURFACE LOW LIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST MOVING
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON TUESDAY. MORE SHOWERS
ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE MUGGY AIRMASS. FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WEAK AT BEST AND WILL ONLY SEE A BRIEF
SFC WIND SHIFT TO MORE WESTERLY FROM SOUTHERLY FOR WED AND WED NIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF PATTERN SHIFT ALOFT. CHANGE IS ONLY
TEMPORARY AS SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS REESTABLISH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY SHIFTS TO WEAK FLOW OVERALL
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND SETTING UP CHANCES FOR PERIODIC DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION YET AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THE SHOWERS IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL BE LIFTING NORTH TO
NORTHEAST AND SHOULD EFFECT PIA/SPI THIS MORNING. FOR OTHER TAF
SITES WILL JUST KEEP VCSH IN THE MORNING HOURS. ONCE THE PCPN
MOVES OUT, SKIES WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT. THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER WAVE/BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FOR
TUE NIGHT...WITH MOVE SHOWERS AND STORMS. EXCEPT FOR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...ALL TAF SITES WILL BE MVFR CIGS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATE TONIGHT ALL TAF SITES WILL HAVE
PREDOMINATE SHOWERS WITH VCTS. WINDS WILL BE VERY GUSTY THIS
MORNING OUT OF THE SOUTH BUT THEN TAPER SOME DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THEN WILL LOOSE THE GUSTINESS DURING THE EVENING.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEELHART
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...AUTEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1011 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
LOTS OF MESOSCALE FEATURES ARE MAKING TO A RATHER DIFFICULT FORECAST
THIS MORNING...WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT ACROSS THE
AREA. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AND RAPID SCAN VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA
SHOWS A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE KS/OK LINE
AT THIS TIME...FROM MEDICINE LODGE TO NEAR ENID OK TO KPNC.
ALREADY SEEING 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE POOLING JUST SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY AND WITH AFTERNOON HEATING EXPECT THIS AREA TO BECOME VERY
UNSTABLE. LATEST HI-RES SHORT TERM MODELS ARENT HANDLING THIS
OUTFLOW VERY WELL...BASICALLY WASHING IT OUT. BUT CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST IT WILL STILL BE AROUND. NOT ALOT OF
CAPPING...SO WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY...THINK STORMS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG BOUNDARY...WITH MULTICELL CLUSTERS THE MAIN STORM MODE. IF A
STORM CAN MOVE NORTHEAST...INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS...SFC WINDS OUT OF
THE SE AND EAST MAY BE ENOUGH TO INCREASE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FOR A
STRAY SUPERCELL TO GET GOING. 0-6KM SHEAR ISNT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE...ONLY AROUND 20-25KTS...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH
INSTABILITY...SOME SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS MAY BE POSSIBLE...WHICH
MAY ENHANCE THE SEVERE WEATHER AND MAYBE EVEN A VERY ISOLATED
TORNADO CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS
CIRRUS SHIELD FROM CENTRAL TX MCS MAY LIMIT AFTERNOON HEATING IN
SOUTH CENTRAL KS. BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF MUCH CAPPING...COULD SEE
STORM ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL ALSO SEE STORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATER THIS EVENING...AS
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES ACROSS CENTRAL KS. AND ALSO STORMS ACROSS
SE KS...AS AN IMPULSE IN WRN TX BEGINS TO LIFT NE INTO SW MO.
ANY CONVECTION THAT GETS GOING WILL POSE A HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT...GIVEN THE HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES OR 120% OF NORMAL AND
SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE CONVECTION.
KETCHAM
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
ACTIVE AND CHALLENGING FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH PERIODIC EPISODES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST LATE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND.
EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES A COMPACT THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX RACING EAST/NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KS.
THINKING THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH PRIMARILY CENTRAL
INTO EAST/NORTHEAST KS EARLY THIS MORNING...AIDED BY 900-800MB
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND A VORT LOBE SKIRTING NORTHWEST KS. NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW 50-60 MPH WIND REPORTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO DISSIPATE WITH TIME EARLY THIS
MORNING...AS IT OUTRUNS BETTER INSTABILITY.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. CURRENT MCS WILL LIKELY LAY DOWN A WEAK OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...BUT PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS BOUNDARY...ALLOWING FOR
STRONG DESTABILIZATION BY MID-AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AS ADDITIONAL UPPER
SUPPORT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. THERE ARE SOME
CONCERNS THAT EXPECTED WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER
OKLAHOMA WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION...ALTHOUGH THINKING THERE IS
ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE TO MITIGATE THIS CONCERN.
CONSEQUENTLY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL KS...WITH
POSSIBLY ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING PV ANOMALY. THE STRONG INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH
WEAK/MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL FAVOR STRONG TO SEVERE MULTI-
CELL STORMS WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL
/NORTH-CENTRAL KS WHERE STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE.
ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT.
MODEL CONSENSUS STALLS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/FRONT SOMEWHERE
ACROSS SOUTHERN KS FOR TUE-WED...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR RENEWED
SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY FROM MID/LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN ON
THE MARGINAL SIDE...POTENTIAL DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR A
FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
ADK
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEEK/EARLY
WEEKEND...AS LONGWAVE TROUGHING ESTABLISHES ITSELF ONCE AGAIN OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS...SPORADICALLY EJECTING SUBTLE UPPER SHORTWAVES
ACROSS MID- AMERICA AMIDST A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS. DESPITE SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF REGARDING UPPER PATTERN
EVOLUTION...CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC EPISODES
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. SIGNAL IS LOW FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER GIVEN MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ALTHOUGH DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR A HANDFUL OF STRONG/SEVERE...ALONG WITH THE
CONTINUED THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
ADK
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 715 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS/NEAR KCNU
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ENDING LIFR CONDITION DUE TO FOG/STRATUS. MEANWHILE
SOME MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN LURKING IN THE POST CONVECTION AIRMASS.
THESE SHOULD GIVE WAY TO FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CUMULUS FIELD BY LATE
MORNING. MODELS HAVE ADVERTISED AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED
AIRMASS FOR FOUR DAYS. HOWEVER OBVIOUS FOCUS/TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION
IS LACKING. OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OR CONVERGENCE ALONG
BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL KS MIGHT BE THE TRIGGER. RAP SUGGESTS FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLEARING/MIXING IN SOUTHWEST PART OF FORECAST AREA. THE
STRONGER WINDS IN THIS AREA MIGHT GENERATE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO
BREAK THE MINIMAL CAP. OTHERWISE A PAIR OF RIPPLES IN UPPER FLOW
WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT CONVECTION TONIGHT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...LIMITED
THUNDER CHANCES TO VCTS FOR NOW. -HOWERTON
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
WILL CANCEL CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH...WHICH WAS SLATED TO
EXPIRE AT 7 AM. HOWEVER...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED
TO HOIST ADDITIONAL FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCHES...GIVEN THE ALREADY
SATURATED SOILS. ADDITIONALLY...DESPITE THE FACT THAT MOST RIVERS
STREAMS ARE BEGINNING TO RECEDE...THE PERIODIC EPISODES OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEK MAY ALLOW FOR
RENEWED RIVER FLOODING.
ADK
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
THROUGH MAY 24TH...WICHITA MAY RAINFALL HAS ACCUMULATED 10.58
INCHES...3RD ALL-TIME (SINCE 1889). 2ND IS 11.22 INCHES IN
1935...AND 1ST IS 13.14 INCHES IN 2008. WITH PERIODIC EPISODES OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK...THESE RECORDS WILL BE IN
JEOPARDY. SALINA AND CHANUTE ALSO HAVE A STRONG POTENTIAL OF
BREAKING INTO THE TOP-10 WETTEST MAY`S ON RECORD.
ADK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 80 60 79 61 / 30 30 30 30
HUTCHINSON 79 60 79 60 / 30 30 20 30
NEWTON 78 60 79 60 / 30 40 20 30
ELDORADO 78 60 78 61 / 30 40 30 30
WINFIELD-KWLD 80 60 78 62 / 30 30 30 40
RUSSELL 78 57 78 58 / 40 40 20 20
GREAT BEND 77 57 78 58 / 40 30 20 20
SALINA 79 60 79 59 / 40 40 20 20
MCPHERSON 79 60 79 59 / 40 40 20 20
COFFEYVILLE 78 62 79 63 / 40 50 30 40
CHANUTE 78 62 78 63 / 40 50 30 40
IOLA 78 62 78 63 / 40 50 30 30
PARSONS-KPPF 78 62 79 63 / 40 50 30 40
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
717 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
ACTIVE AND CHALLENGING FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH PERIODIC EPISODES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST LATE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND.
EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES A COMPACT THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX RACING EAST/NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KS.
THINKING THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH PRIMARILY CENTRAL
INTO EAST/NORTHEAST KS EARLY THIS MORNING...AIDED BY 900-800MB
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND A VORT LOBE SKIRTING NORTHWEST KS. NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW 50-60 MPH WIND REPORTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO DISSIPATE WITH TIME EARLY THIS
MORNING...AS IT OUTRUNS BETTER INSTABILITY.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. CURRENT MCS WILL LIKELY LAY DOWN A WEAK OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...BUT PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS BOUNDARY...ALLOWING FOR
STRONG DESTABILIZATION BY MID-AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AS ADDITIONAL UPPER
SUPPORT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. THERE ARE SOME
CONCERNS THAT EXPECTED WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER
OKLAHOMA WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION...ALTHOUGH THINKING THERE IS
ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE TO MITIGATE THIS CONCERN.
CONSEQUENTLY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL KS...WITH
POSSIBLY ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING PV ANOMALY. THE STRONG INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH
WEAK/MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL FAVOR STRONG TO SEVERE MULTI-
CELL STORMS WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL
/NORTH-CENTRAL KS WHERE STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE.
ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT.
MODEL CONSENSUS STALLS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/FRONT SOMEWHERE
ACROSS SOUTHERN KS FOR TUE-WED...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR RENEWED
SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY FROM MID/LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN ON
THE MARGINAL SIDE...POTENTIAL DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR A
FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
ADK
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEEK/EARLY
WEEKEND...AS LONGWAVE TROUGHING ESTABLISHES ITSELF ONCE AGAIN OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS...SPORADICALLY EJECTING SUBTLE UPPER SHORTWAVES
ACROSS MID- AMERICA AMIDST A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS. DESPITE SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF REGARDING UPPER PATTERN
EVOLUTION...CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC EPISODES
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. SIGNAL IS LOW FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER GIVEN MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ALTHOUGH DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR A HANDFUL OF STRONG/SEVERE...ALONG WITH THE
CONTINUED THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
ADK
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 715 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS/NEAR KCNU
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ENDING LIFR CONDITION DUE TO FOG/STRATUS. MEANWHILE
SOME MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN LURKING IN THE POST CONVECTION AIRMASS.
THESE SHOULD GIVE WAY TO FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CUMULUS FIELD BY LATE
MORNING. MODELS HAVE ADVERTISED AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED
AIRMASS FOR FOUR DAYS. HOWEVER OBVIOUS FOCUS/TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION
IS LACKING. OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OR CONVERGENCE ALONG
BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL KS MIGHT BE THE TRIGGER. RAP SUGGESTS FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLEARING/MIXING IN SOUTHWEST PART OF FORECAST AREA. THE
STRONGER WINDS IN THIS AREA MIGHT GENERATE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO
BREAK THE MINIMAL CAP. OTHERWISE A PAIR OF RIPPLES IN UPPER FLOW
WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT CONVECTION TONIGHT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...LIMITED
THUNDER CHANCES TO VCTS FOR NOW. -HOWERTON
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
WILL CANCEL CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH...WHICH WAS SLATED TO
EXPIRE AT 7 AM. HOWEVER...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED
TO HOIST ADDITIONAL FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCHES...GIVEN THE ALREADY
SATURATED SOILS. ADDITIONALLY...DESPITE THE FACT THAT MOST RIVERS
STREAMS ARE BEGINNING TO RECEDE...THE PERIODIC EPISODES OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEK MAY ALLOW FOR
RENEWED RIVER FLOODING.
ADK
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
THROUGH MAY 24TH...WICHITA MAY RAINFALL HAS ACCUMULATED 10.58
INCHES...3RD ALL-TIME (SINCE 1889). 2ND IS 11.22 INCHES IN
1935...AND 1ST IS 13.14 INCHES IN 2008. WITH PERIODIC EPISODES OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK...THESE RECORDS WILL BE IN
JEOPARDY. SALINA AND CHANUTE ALSO HAVE A STRONG POTENTIAL OF
BREAKING INTO THE TOP-10 WETTEST MAY`S ON RECORD.
ADK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 80 60 79 61 / 30 30 30 30
HUTCHINSON 79 60 79 60 / 30 30 20 30
NEWTON 78 60 79 60 / 40 40 20 30
ELDORADO 78 60 78 61 / 60 40 30 30
WINFIELD-KWLD 80 60 78 62 / 30 30 30 40
RUSSELL 78 57 78 58 / 40 40 20 20
GREAT BEND 77 57 78 58 / 40 30 20 20
SALINA 79 60 79 59 / 40 40 20 20
MCPHERSON 79 60 79 59 / 40 40 20 20
COFFEYVILLE 78 62 79 63 / 40 50 30 40
CHANUTE 78 62 78 63 / 60 50 30 40
IOLA 78 62 78 63 / 70 50 30 30
PARSONS-KPPF 78 62 79 63 / 40 50 30 40
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
625 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
Upper low over the Central Rockies continues to eject smaller pieces
of shortwave energy into Kansas, with one moving out of the forecast
area while the next is on approach. Steepening of lapse rates with
the incoming wave is providing enough instability for thunder to
develop, and model soundings indicate instability will continue to
be on the increase, along with an EML that moves into Eastern
Kansas. Also of influence will be the convective complex out in
west central Kansas moving eastward at this hour. The northern side
of this feature appears to have gust front out ahead of the
convection while the southern side still is along or just behind the
gust front. Latest HRRR dissipates this feature considerably through
the early morning hours, and at this time have opted to carry
diminishing precip chances through the morning to account for this
feature. The Cottonwood, Neosho, and Marias des Cygnes rivers
continue to be in flood, but at this time don`t see lingering heavy
rainfall and will cancel the flash flood watch. Afternoon hours
appear to be a transition period as EML moves in and perhaps
subsidence behind leading shortwave aid in clearing out earlier
convection, a reset for activity in the late afternoon and evening
hours.
Larger scale upper trof moves eastward late this afternoon and
evening, bring surface low and frontal boundary into north central
Kansas. Lapse rates continue to steepen along this boundary, with
NAM12 indicating 2500J/kg of surface based CAPE by 23z near
Concordia, and higher values toward Manhattan, although think this
is somewhat overdone by high dewpoint bias in that area. 0-1km shear
values are in the 10-20kt range, with 0-3km helicity near 150m/s2.
0-6km bulk shear values are less robust, around 25kts, with wind
speeds aloft weaker and more unidirectional making for weaker
profiles. Still enough ingredients to make severe hail and wind of
concern with storms that develop, along with potential for isolated
tornadoes, and has led to an outlook from SPC for a slight risk
across mainly the northwest half of our area. Despite rain chances
early and late, high temperatures still expected to make it back
into the upper 70s. As upper system moves eastward late evening and
overnight, have continued thunderstorm chances across the area, some
of which may continue to be strong to severe.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
By Tuesday morning the main shortwave trough should be lifting into
the upper Midwest, although there are some hints of some weak energy
hanging back across the central and southern plains. As this energy
potentially moves over the region a few of the models are generating
light QPF Tuesday afternoon and overnight with the lack of CIN, but
there is not much focus for lift. On Wednesday after some slight
mid level ridging moves east of the Rockies the lee side trough
develops and return flow becomes better established. Any
thunderstorm complexes that develop over the high plains have a
chance of moving eastward into the forecast area Wednesday through
Thursday night. Then a stronger shortwave drops out of the pacific
northwest into the central Rockies Thursday. As it lifts over the
plains on Friday and Saturday the chances for precip increases,
which has been a consistent solution for the past few days, so
will continue with the likely pops. The GFS is more aggressive
with tracking a decent surface low pressure over eastern KS, while
the ECMWF just brings a robust front through. Either way another
shot of widespread measurable rain looks to be on track for early
next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 621 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
Weakening area of showers to move through TAF sites early then
dissipate. Think area will see break in the clouds this afternoon
before next round of strong storms develops late this afternoon
into the evening hours. Kept as prevailing for MHK but will start
with VCTS at TOP/FOE until development better refined.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...67
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
926 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015
UPDATED SKY CONDITION TO BLEND MORNING SATELLITE OBS INTO THE
DAYTIME FORECAST...BUT WITH LITTLE SUBSTANTIVE CHANGE. OTHER
FORECAST ELEMENTS WERE STILL IN GOOD SHAPE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015
THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK SO HAVE JUST UPDATED THE
SKY/T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
KENTUCKY BETWEEN BROAD LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS AND HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE INVERSION IN PLACE OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY AND NATURE OF THE TERRAIN IS KEEPING THE WINDS
LIGHT TO CALM IN MOST PLACES. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SMATTERING OF
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS...HAS LED TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLITS ACROSS
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. READINGS CURRENTLY VARY FROM THE MID 50S
IN THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON THE
RIDGES AND IN MORE OPEN LOCATIONS. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE IN THESE
SITUATIONS...EKQ SHOWS THE RESULTS OF A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
WITH SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 17 KTS AND TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S AT
LAST OBSERVATION. WHILE DEW POINTS HAVE COME UP DURING THE PAST
24 HOURS THEY ARE STILL ON THE RELATIVELY DRY SIDE RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 50S IN THE FAR EAST AND ON RIDGETOPS TO THE MID 50S IN
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AND VALLEY LOCATIONS.
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL
DEPICT A SHARP RIDGE PUSHED FURTHER EAST FROM THE AREA IN THE
FACE OF A BROAD AND OPENING TROUGH CROSSING THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TODAY. A COUPLE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH
THE REGION JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF EAST KENTUCKY. THE FIRST OF
THESE GOES BY FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN FURTHER HEIGHT FALLS. AFTER A QUIET NIGHT...A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WAVE PASSES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE BODILY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL TROUGH/S
REMNANT CORE. THIS WILL BRING A DECENT MID LEVEL WIND FIELD
THROUGH THE AREA AS IT MOVES BY AND LIKELY FUEL STRONGER AND
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE STATE WHEN COMBINED WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE. HAVE FOLLOWED THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND NAM12 MOST CLOSELY
GIVEN THE OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT AND SMALLER SCALE NATURE OF THE
DETERMINANT FEATURES.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL START OFF QUIET ENOUGH FOR THIS HOLIDAY...
AND FOLLOWING SEVERAL DAYS OF NEAR PERFECT WX...BUT WILL LIKELY
TURN CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE BY MIDDAY STARTING IN THE WESTERN PARTS
OF THE CWA AND PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE EARLIER
HRRR RUNS AND HINTS WITHIN THE NAM12 SUGGESTED A POSSIBILITY OF A
STRAY SHOWER AROUND EAST KENTUCKY BEFORE 15Z IN ADVANCE OF THE
MAIN AREA BOTH MODELS DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE
OVERDONE...AND NOW DISCOUNTED BY THE LATEST HRRR...GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE
STATE. NEVERTHELESS...THEY DO AGREE ON A FAIRLY ACTIVE AFTERNOON
FOR MOST OF THE AREA AS THE LEAD MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE INITIATES
CONVECTION EARLY ON TO THE WEST AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
PROGRESSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO DO THE REST. THE
ACTIVITY WILL WANE EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE TIME OF TYPICAL CONVECTIVE MINIMUM.
RENEWAL OF ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY AS THE NEXT WAVE
BRUSHES BY ALOFT WITH A BETTER WIND FIELD AND AS MUCH...OR
POTENTIALLY MORE...INSTABILITY IN PLACE. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR
ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS AND THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL REST ON PARTIAL CLEARING AND THE ABILITY OF THE AIR MASS
OVER EKY TO OVERCOME ANY EARLIER STABILIZING EFFECTS OF
CONVECTION/DEBRIS FROM THAT MORNING/S LIMITED CONVECTION. WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS...AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
SPC OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...WILL HIGHLIGHT CONCERNS IN THE HWO...A
WEB HEADLINE...AND A HEADS UP EMAIL TO OUR PARTNERS. THIS SHOULD
ENSURE THAT DECISION MAKERS ARE NOT CAUGHT UNAWARE OF THE STORM
POTENTIAL COMING OFF A LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD AND WIND
GRIDS TODAY BEFORE WRAPPING UP WITH THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER FOR
TONIGHT MADE ONLY MINOR TERRAIN BASED CHANGES TO THE LOW
TEMPERATURES. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP A LITTLE HIGHER THAN EVEN THE
WETTER MAV MOS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. FOLLOWING THAT...THE POPS WERE
MOST SIMILAR TO THE LOWER MET NUMBERS TONIGHT AND IN LINE WITH A
BLEND OF THE FAIRLY HIGH GUIDANCE TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK QUITE ACTIVE...WITH REPEATED
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST. THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PERIODS LOOK TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE AIDED BY PEAK HEATING AND
MAXIMUM INSTABILITY REALIZATION. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A
LARGE SCALE PATTERN THAT WOULD FEATURE A SERIES OF LARGE SCALE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHS MIGRATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS AND SOUTHERN
CANADA. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES THAT WILL BE TRAILING FROM
THE SURFACE REFLECTIONS OF THE UPPER TROUGHS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO
TRAVERSE THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. THESE FRONTS WOULD ACT AS
THE PRIMARY TRIGGERS FOR SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY. TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE PERIODS...AS A SLUGGISH
COLD FRONT MEANDERS ABOUT THE AREA. A FEW OF THE STORMS TUESDAY
EVENING COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. THE ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF RAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE STILL ON TRACK TO BE
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE BOARD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER...CEILINGS WILL FIRM UP AND BEGIN TO LOWER DURING THE DAY
AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TAKE SHAPE OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR
AND BRIEF IFR CIGS/VIS INTO THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ANY
STORM. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH A
DIMINISHING TREND TO COVERAGE AND LIKELY IMPROVEMENTS IN THE
CIGS. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
DAY REACHING 10 TO 20 KTS FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON AMID THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. LOOK FOR THE WINDS TO SETTLE DURING THE
EVENING FOLLOWING SUNSET.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL/GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
725 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015
THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK SO HAVE JUST UPDATED THE
SKY/T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
KENTUCKY BETWEEN BROAD LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS AND HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE INVERSION IN PLACE OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY AND NATURE OF THE TERRAIN IS KEEPING THE WINDS
LIGHT TO CALM IN MOST PLACES. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SMATTERING OF
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS...HAS LED TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLITS ACROSS
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. READINGS CURRENTLY VARY FROM THE MID 50S
IN THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON THE
RIDGES AND IN MORE OPEN LOCATIONS. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE IN THESE
SITUATIONS...EKQ SHOWS THE RESULTS OF A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
WITH SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 17 KTS AND TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S AT
LAST OBSERVATION. WHILE DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS THEY ARE STILL ON THE RELATIVELY DRY SIDE RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 50S IN THE FAR EAST AND ON RIDGETOPS TO THE MID 50S IN OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES AND VALLEY LOCATIONS.
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL
DEPICT A SHARP RIDGE PUSHED FURTHER EAST FROM THE AREA IN THE
FACE OF A BROAD AND OPENING TROUGH CROSSING THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TODAY. A COUPLE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH
THE REGION JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF EAST KENTUCKY. THE FIRST OF
THESE GOES BY FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN FURTHER HEIGHT FALLS. AFTER A QUIET NIGHT...A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WAVE PASSES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE BODILY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL TROUGH/S
REMNANT CORE. THIS WILL BRING A DECENT MID LEVEL WIND FIELD
THROUGH THE AREA AS IT MOVES BY AND LIKELY FUEL STRONGER AND
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE STATE WHEN COMBINED WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE. HAVE FOLLOWED THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND NAM12 MOST CLOSELY
GIVEN THE OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT AND SMALLER SCALE NATURE OF THE
DETERMINANT FEATURES.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL START OFF QUIET ENOUGH FOR THIS HOLIDAY...
AND FOLLOWING SEVERAL DAYS OF NEAR PERFECT WX...BUT WILL LIKELY
TURN CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE BY MIDDAY STARTING IN THE WESTERN PARTS
OF THE CWA AND PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE EARLIER
HRRR RUNS AND HINTS WITHIN THE NAM12 SUGGESTED A POSSIBILITY OF A
STRAY SHOWER AROUND EAST KENTUCKY BEFORE 15Z IN ADVANCE OF THE
MAIN AREA BOTH MODELS DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE
OVERDONE...AND NOW DISCOUNTED BY THE LATEST HRRR...GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE
STATE. NEVERTHELESS...THEY DO AGREE ON A FAIRLY ACTIVE AFTERNOON
FOR MOST OF THE AREA AS THE LEAD MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE INITIATES
CONVECTION EARLY ON TO THE WEST AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
PROGRESSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO DO THE REST. THE
ACTIVITY WILL WANE EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE TIME OF TYPICAL CONVECTIVE MINIMUM.
RENEWAL OF ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY AS THE NEXT WAVE
BRUSHES BY ALOFT WITH A BETTER WIND FIELD AND AS MUCH...OR
POTENTIALLY MORE...INSTABILITY IN PLACE. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR
ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS AND THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL REST ON PARTIAL CLEARING AND THE ABILITY OF THE AIR MASS
OVER EKY TO OVERCOME ANY EARLIER STABILIZING EFFECTS OF
CONVECTION/DEBRIS FROM THAT MORNING/S LIMITED CONVECTION. WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS...AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
SPC OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...WILL HIGHLIGHT CONCERNS IN THE HWO...A
WEB HEADLINE...AND A HEADS UP EMAIL TO OUR PARTNERS. THIS SHOULD
ENSURE THAT DECISION MAKERS ARE NOT CAUGHT UNAWARE OF THE STORM
POTENTIAL COMING OFF A LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD AND WIND
GRIDS TODAY BEFORE WRAPPING UP WITH THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER FOR
TONIGHT MADE ONLY MINOR TERRAIN BASED CHANGES TO THE LOW
TEMPERATURES. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP A LITTLE HIGHER THAN EVEN THE
WETTER MAV MOS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. FOLLOWING THAT...THE POPS WERE
MOST SIMILAR TO THE LOWER MET NUMBERS TONIGHT AND IN LINE WITH A
BLEND OF THE FAIRLY HIGH GUIDANCE TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK QUITE ACTIVE...WITH REPEATED
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST. THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PERIODS LOOK TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE AIDED BY PEAK HEATING AND
MAXIMUM INSTABILITY REALIZATION. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A
LARGE SCALE PATTERN THAT WOULD FEATURE A SERIES OF LARGE SCALE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHS MIGRATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS AND SOUTHERN
CANADA. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES THAT WILL BE TRAILING FROM
THE SURFACE REFLECTIONS OF THE UPPER TROUGHS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO
TRAVERSE THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. THESE FRONTS WOULD ACT AS
THE PRIMARY TRIGGERS FOR SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY. TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE PERIODS...AS A SLUGGISH
COLD FRONT MEANDERS ABOUT THE AREA. A FEW OF THE STORMS TUESDAY
EVENING COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. THE ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF RAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE STILL ON TRACK TO BE
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE BOARD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER...CEILINGS WILL FIRM UP AND BEGIN TO LOWER DURING THE DAY
AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TAKE SHAPE OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR
AND BRIEF IFR CIGS/VIS INTO THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ANY
STORM. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH A
DIMINISHING TREND TO COVERAGE AND LIKELY IMPROVEMENTS IN THE
CIGS. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
DAY REACHING 10 TO 20 KTS FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON AMID THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. LOOK FOR THE WINDS TO SETTLE DURING THE
EVENING FOLLOWING SUNSET.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
715 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 25/12Z TAFS...A VERY BUSY TAF CYCLE IS EXPECTED AS IFR AND
MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THIS MORNING...SLOWLY LIFTING INTO
LOW VFR RANGE BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH ADVANCING
CONVECTION FROM CNTRL TX INTO OUR WRN TAF SITES IN E TX. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD SHWRS AND TSTMS TO GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST...SOME STRONG
TO SEVERE WITH INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS...ALONG WITH SEVERE TURBULENCE
IN THESE AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON TO AROUND 12-18 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE...ADDING
TO THE RICH MOISTURE POOL TO HELP FUEL AFTERNOON SHWRS AND STORMS.
CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND DOWN TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD WITH LINGERING SHWRS AND VCTS STILL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
/19/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/
DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER COMPLICATED FORECAST THIS MORNING...GIVEN THE FACT THAT
THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF THE QPF OF THE CONVECTION THAT WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY AHEAD
OF THE NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE NOW NOSING INTO FAR W TX. ALREADY
BEGINNING TO SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS MORNING
NEAR WINK...WITH ANOTHER SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING
FARTHER SE OVER NRN OLD MX JUST W OF DRT ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
THIS SHORTWAVE...WITH THE ATTENDENT TROUGH AXIS SLATED TO LIFT NE
INTO RED RIVER VALLEY AND ECNTRL TX LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW
STRATUS HAS RETURNED TO MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...WHICH
SHOULD LIFT/SCATTER OUT ENOUGH BY MID TO LATE MORNING ALLOWING FOR
HEATING AND BNDRY LYR DESTABLIZATION THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE MLCAPES DEVELOPING AS
DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH. THE
SHORT TERM PROGS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHER QPF...WITH THE ECMWF/CANADIAN SLOWEST
IN KEEPING MUCH OF THE HIGHER QPF JUST W OF THE REGION ACROSS NRN
AND CNTRL TX THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...THE 06Z NAM IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST HRRR RUN WITH TWO SEPARATE
AREAS OF CONVECTION...THAT COINCIDES WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS OVER
SW TX/MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WHICH MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO A BKN
SQUALL LINE/MCS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS IT ACCELERATES E INTO
NE TX/SE OK.
THE 06Z GFS IS CONSISTENT WITH ITS 00Z PREDECESSOR WITH A
SVR MCS DEVELOPING OVER WCNTRL/CNTRL TX BY LATE MORNING...BUT IS
SLOWER TO REACH NE TX UNTIL 00Z TUESDAY. THE GFS DOES ALSO DEVELOP
A SFC WAVE LATER TODAY AND AN INTENSIFYING 40-50KT SRLY LLJ OVER
ECNTRL TX...THUS ENHANCING CONVERGENCE AND FOCUSING A LARGE AREA
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AS IT SPREADS E INTO THE REGION THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THE CANADIAN IS ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS
IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIER QPF ACROSS NE TX/SE OK/SW AR
BEFORE THE HEAVIER RAIN SPREADS/GUSTS E OVERNIGHT. THIS SPREAD IN
THE SOLUTIONS RESULT IN 2 POSSIBLE SCENERIOS...ONE WHERE A SVR MCS
DEVELOPS AND ACCELERATES E OVER THE REGION WHEN
HEATING/INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED...THUS RAMPING THE SVR THREAT UP
WITH DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE...BUT ALSO
MINIMIZING THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THE OTHER BEING A SVR
MCS...WHICH WILL BE SLOWER TO MOVE BUT WILL AGAIN RESULT IN
DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES...BUT ALSO RESULT IN A
HEIGHTENED FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHOULD A SFC TROUGH DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA. THIS FORECAST HAS FOLLOWED MORE OF A BLEND IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS...WITH HEIGHTENED AWARENESS FOR THE SVR THREAT GIVEN THE
STRONG FORCING AND MODERATE INSTABILITY/SHEAR EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP/SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...THE
CONVECTION MAY ACCELERATE E ALONG A COLD POOL...BUT THE SWD EXTENT
OF THE CONVECTION MAY BE SLOWER MOVING AND TRAIN NE ALONG THE SRN
TAIL OF THE TROUGH OVER E TX/NCNTRL LA ONCE THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS
NE INTO NRN AR.
HAVE TONED DOWN QPF/S TO 1-3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS THIS
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...AND HAVE MAINTAINED THE END
TIME OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS 12Z TUESDAY...AS THE STRONGER
CONVECTION SHOULD BE DEPARTING THE CWA BY THIS TIME. AN EXTENSION
MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER FORECASTS THOUGH FOR THE ERN ZONES AS SCT
CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DRY SLOTTING
BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN A REDUCTION IN
CONVECTION FARTHER W TUESDAY...THUS HAVE TAPERED POPS BACK TO
CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR E TX/SW AR/WRN LA. MEANWHILE...TEMPS
SHOULD RETURN BACK TO NEAR CLIMO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE GFS/ECMWF MAINTAINS FLAT RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY...AMPLIFYING NE FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE TN
VALLEY THURSDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIGS SE INTO
THE ROCKIES BY THURSDAY. WEAKNESSES RIDING ATOP THE RIDGE MAY
RESULT IN WIDELY SCT CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH THE
CONVECTION MOSTLY DIURNAL IN NATURE. LOW CHANCE POPS SHOULD
SUFFICE FOR THIS PERIOD AREAWIDE...ALTHOUGH HAVE CONTINUED THE
TREND WITH MID-CHANCE POPS RETURNING FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
AS SHORTWAVE PERTUBATIONS EJECT NE AHEAD OF THE BROAD TROUGHING
ALOFT TO OUR W. WHILE TEMPS LOOKS TO HOLD NEAR CLIMO THROUGH LATE
WEEK...GREATER CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER READINGS AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THANK YOU WFO/S LZK AND TSA FOR COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.
PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 83 69 86 71 / 60 80 40 20
MLU 86 70 83 70 / 60 90 70 20
DEQ 79 66 83 68 / 70 80 20 30
TXK 81 68 85 70 / 70 80 30 20
ELD 84 69 83 70 / 50 90 60 20
TYR 81 68 86 72 / 80 60 20 20
GGG 82 69 86 71 / 70 70 20 20
LFK 84 71 87 73 / 70 60 30 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ077.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
&&
$$
19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
526 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER COMPLICATED FORECAST THIS MORNING...GIVEN THE FACT THAT
THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF THE QPF OF THE CONVECTION THAT WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY AHEAD
OF THE NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE NOW NOSING INTO FAR W TX. ALREADY
BEGINNING TO SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS MORNING
NEAR WINK...WITH ANOTHER SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING
FARTHER SE OVER NRN OLD MX JUST W OF DRT ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
THIS SHORTWAVE...WITH THE ATTENDENT TROUGH AXIS SLATED TO LIFT NE
INTO RED RIVER VALLEY AND ECNTRL TX LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW
STRATUS HAS RETURNED TO MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...WHICH
SHOULD LIFT/SCATTER OUT ENOUGH BY MID TO LATE MORNING ALLOWING FOR
HEATING AND BNDRY LYR DESTABLIZATION THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE MLCAPES DEVELOPING AS
DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH. THE
SHORT TERM PROGS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHER QPF...WITH THE ECMWF/CANADIAN SLOWEST
IN KEEPING MUCH OF THE HIGHER QPF JUST W OF THE REGION ACROSS NRN
AND CNTRL TX THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...THE 06Z NAM IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST HRRR RUN WITH TWO SEPARATE
AREAS OF CONVECTION...THAT COINCIDES WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS OVER
SW TX/MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WHICH MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO A BKN
SQUALL LINE/MCS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS IT ACCELERATES E INTO
NE TX/SE OK.
THE 06Z GFS IS CONSISTENT WITH ITS 00Z PREDECESSOR WITH A
SVR MCS DEVELOPING OVER WCNTRL/CNTRL TX BY LATE MORNING...BUT IS
SLOWER TO REACH NE TX UNTIL 00Z TUESDAY. THE GFS DOES ALSO DEVELOP
A SFC WAVE LATER TODAY AND AN INTENSIFYING 40-50KT SRLY LLJ OVER
ECNTRL TX...THUS ENHANCING CONVERGENCE AND FOCUSING A LARGE AREA
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AS IT SPREADS E INTO THE REGION THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THE CANADIAN IS ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS
IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIER QPF ACROSS NE TX/SE OK/SW AR
BEFORE THE HEAVIER RAIN SPREADS/GUSTS E OVERNIGHT. THIS SPREAD IN
THE SOLUTIONS RESULT IN 2 POSSIBLE SCENERIOS...ONE WHERE A SVR MCS
DEVELOPS AND ACCELERATES E OVER THE REGION WHEN
HEATING/INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED...THUS RAMPING THE SVR THREAT UP
WITH DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE...BUT ALSO
MINIMIZING THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THE OTHER BEING A SVR
MCS...WHICH WILL BE SLOWER TO MOVE BUT WILL AGAIN RESULT IN
DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES...BUT ALSO RESULT IN A
HEIGHTENED FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHOULD A SFC TROUGH DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA. THIS FORECAST HAS FOLLOWED MORE OF A BLEND IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS...WITH HEIGHTENED AWARENESS FOR THE SVR THREAT GIVEN THE
STRONG FORCING AND MODERATE INSTABILITY/SHEAR EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP/SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...THE
CONVECTION MAY ACCELERATE E ALONG A COLD POOL...BUT THE SWD EXTENT
OF THE CONVECTION MAY BE SLOWER MOVING AND TRAIN NE ALONG THE SRN
TAIL OF THE TROUGH OVER E TX/NCNTRL LA ONCE THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS
NE INTO NRN AR.
HAVE TONED DOWN QPF/S TO 1-3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS THIS
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...AND HAVE MAINTAINED THE END
TIME OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS 12Z TUESDAY...AS THE STRONGER
CONVECTION SHOULD BE DEPARTING THE CWA BY THIS TIME. AN EXTENSION
MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER FORECASTS THOUGH FOR THE ERN ZONES AS SCT
CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DRY SLOTTING
BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN A REDUCTION IN
CONVECTION FARTHER W TUESDAY...THUS HAVE TAPERED POPS BACK TO
CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR E TX/SW AR/WRN LA. MEANWHILE...TEMPS
SHOULD RETURN BACK TO NEAR CLIMO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE GFS/ECMWF MAINTAINS FLAT RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY...AMPLIFYING NE FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE TN
VALLEY THURSDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIGS SE INTO
THE ROCKIES BY THURSDAY. WEAKNESSES RIDING ATOP THE RIDGE MAY
RESULT IN WIDELY SCT CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH THE
CONVECTION MOSTLY DIURNAL IN NATURE. LOW CHANCE POPS SHOULD
SUFFICE FOR THIS PERIOD AREAWIDE...ALTHOUGH HAVE CONTINUED THE
TREND WITH MID-CHANCE POPS RETURNING FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
AS SHORTWAVE PERTUBATIONS EJECT NE AHEAD OF THE BROAD TROUGHING
ALOFT TO OUR W. WHILE TEMPS LOOKS TO HOLD NEAR CLIMO THROUGH LATE
WEEK...GREATER CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER READINGS AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THANK YOU WFO/S LZK AND TSA FOR COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.
PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 83 69 86 71 / 60 80 40 20
MLU 86 70 83 70 / 60 90 70 20
DEQ 79 66 83 68 / 70 80 20 30
TXK 81 68 85 70 / 70 80 30 20
ELD 84 69 83 70 / 50 90 60 20
TYR 81 68 86 72 / 80 60 20 20
GGG 82 69 86 71 / 70 70 20 20
LFK 84 71 87 73 / 70 60 30 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ077.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
&&
$$
15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
930 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
DRAWS TO A CLOSE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CHANGES FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD INCLUDED AN UPWARD POP BUMP...MAINLY
FOR THE ZANESVILLE AND SURROUNDING AREA...AS HRRR HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT IN MAINTAINING PRECIP WITH THE ADVANCING...ALBIET WEAK
SHORTWAVE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE PICS. FOR NOW...HAVE LABELED AS
SHOWERS GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF INSTABILITY ON VARIOUS MODEL
SOUNDINGS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING MID LEVEL WARMTH.
OTHERWISE...INTENSIFYING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT WARMTH AND MOISTURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. CHANGES TO AN ALREADY WARM TEMP FORECAST ARE
UNMENTIONABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE FUNNEL OF DEEP
MOISTURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION...AT LEAST UNTIL MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSION SHUNTS THE PLUME EASTWARD LATER ON
THURSDAY AS PER THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS.
HIGH END CHANCE...TO LIKELY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL THUS BE
MAINTAINED FOR THE PERIOD. SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS TO BE
COMPROMISED BY WARM MID LEVELS AND A MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILE...BUT WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE SEASONABLY WARM TEMP
PROGNOSIS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...AND PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEK AS MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK SPLIT FLOW REGIME
CONVERGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO REGION. THE SURFACE
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD UNTIL REDEVELOPING NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO GREAT PLAINS TROUGHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
GIVEN MODEL MAGNITUDE...POSITIONING...AND TIMING DISPUTES...PERSISTENCE
WILL RULE THE LONG TERM FORECAST STRATEGY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AND SUPPORT AN IMPROVING SOUTH...TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WIND TODAY.
ISOLATED...TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE LOCAL RESTRICTION POTENTIAL INTO TUESDAY...THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR WHICH WILL BE AT ZZV AND FKL.
.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1038 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
.DISCUSSION...IT HAS BEEN AN ACTIVE MORNING ACROSS EAST MS...WITH
MULTIPLE LOW TOPPED CELLS EXHIBITING ROTATION. A FEW OF THE STORMS
HAVE BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WARNING. THOUGH INSTABILITY
IS SOMEWHAT MODEST WITH MLCAPES MAINLY <1000 J/KG...LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF 200-300 M2/S2 EFFECTIVE SRH ACROSS
THIS REGION. THERE IS GOOD UPPER SUPPORT FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE AREA RESIDES UNDER THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET MAX LIFTING ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY.
LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER EAST MS INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FARTHER WEST THROUGH
THE DAY WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY INCREASE.
GIVEN THE HISTORY OF STORMS THIS MORNING AND CURRENT ENVIRONMENT...
THE HWO/GRAPHICS WILL BE UPDATED TO HIGHLIGHT A LIMITED SEVERE
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. SOME MINOR UPDATES WILL ALSO BE MADE
TO WX WORDING TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS. /DL/
&&
.AVIATION...NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND POSE HAZARDS TO GTR/MEI/HBG/JAN/HKS THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON...THEN THE CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL SHIFT TO GLH/GWO
AREA TONIGHT. IN THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS...WIDESPREAD MVFR/OCNL IFR
CIGS WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. /EC/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... EXPECTING A RATHER
ACTIVE PERIOD FOR THE SHORT TERM WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS AND SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.
BY 3 MID DAYTIME HEATING WILL KICK IN AS CONVECTION BUILDS FROM THE
WEST AND SOUTH TOWARD THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE LOWER PLAINS/MS VALLEY
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
INCLUDING SOME POSSIBILITY FOR A TORNADO OR TWO WOULD BE ACROSS THE
DELTA...WHERE THE BEST OVERLAY OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
HELICITY IS PROGGED. 0-3 KM SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40 KNOTS IN THAT
REGION. SO WILL KEEP THE CURRENT SEVERE LIMITED RISK FOR THE WEST
HALF FOR TONIGHT. HIRES MODELS SHOWS A PRETTY GOOD LINEAR MCS MOVING
INTO THE WEST DURING THE EVENING AND WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE
EAST DUE TO THE LACK OF FORCING. AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY WITH BETTER
DEEP SHEAR AND FORCING SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY.
HIRES MODELS ALSO SHOWS A GOOD LINEAR MCS CROSSING THE REGION AT
THIS TIME...WHICH WILL HOLD TOGETHER BETTER. WILL KEEP THE PRIMARY
RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT.
AS FAR AS THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS CONCERN FOR THE SHORT
TERM. WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND HIGH PWATS IT WILL BE A
CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE NOT BEEN THAT HIGH
WITH SOME LOCALIZED 4 INCHES ACROSS THE WEST MADISON...NORTH HINDS
AND LOWER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. SO WITH THIS IN MIND WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND LET THE DAY SHIFT REVISIT THE MATTER...ESP
WITH CONVECTION BEING A LITTLE LESS ACTIVE FOR MOST OF THE DAY. FOR
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IF THINGS DO COME TOGETHER MAY HAVE TO
LOOK AT A FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THAT PERIOD. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
GRAPHICS FOR THAT PERIOD FOR NOW./17/
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
CWA WHERE PWS WILL BE BELOW AN INCH AND A HALF. PWS AROUND AN INCH
AND THREE QUARTERS WILL RESIDE OVER OUR SOUTHEAST. A SURFACE RIDGE
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES MAINTAINING A WARM MOIST
FEED FROM THE GULF. A MORE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
OUR CWA DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY AND LEAD TO A DECENT COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION. WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR LOOK TO REMAIN QUITE LIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY BUT MODELS SUGGEST VERTICAL TOTALS AROUND 29 AND DCAPE AROUND
1200J/KG OVER OUR DELTA REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WHERE A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT RIDGING ALOFT
WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE WESTERN GULF ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION TO END THE WORK WEEK. BY SATURDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GFS IS A
LITTLE DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH AND STRONGER WITH THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW THAN THE ECMWF AND CMC...BUT CONSENSUS SUGGESTS POPS
WILL INCREASE GOING INTO SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM DRAWS CLOSER. THE
TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST WEST OF OUR CWA MONDAY EVENING.
NORMAL LOWS RUN IN THE MID 60S AND NORMAL HIGHS RUN 85 TO 87F. DUE
TO MOISTURE LEVELS REMAINING HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT CLOSE TO NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. /22/
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
DL/EC/17/22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
959 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 10 AM MONDAY...A BEAUTIFUL MEMORIAL DAY UNDERWAY AS
TEMPERATURES ALREADY WELL INTO THE 70S AND SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE
LOWER 80S IN MANY LOCATIONS...PERHAPS A FEW MID 80S WELL INLAND.
DID RAISE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO NEAR THE SOUTHERN
COAST...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM MON...ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH
IN CONTROL. COULD SEE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...ESP ALONG
THE COAST WITH MOIST SLY FLOW. LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MON...MID/UPR RIDGE WILL CONT NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
COAST THRU THE PERIOD...THIS WILL SUPPRESS PRECIP CHCS ESPCLY
ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT MCLR TO PC SKIES WITH NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AS SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE COAST KEEPS WINDS MAINLY
FROM THE S. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 6OS WITH AROUND 70
BEACHES. HIGHS WILL WARM FROM LOW TO MID 80S INLAND TUE TO UPR
80S AROUND 90 LATER IN PERIOD...BEACHES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER.
WILL CONT WITH SLIGHT POPS INLAND THU AND FRI AFTN AS AXIS OF
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE NEAR THIS AREA...AND INLAND MOVING SEA BRZ
COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLD CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM MON...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. S/SE WINDS AROUND 10KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 15KT THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH FEW/SCT CU EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MON...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG AS
LOW LVLS GRAD MOISTEN BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE QUITE
LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME ISOLD SHRA/TSRA DURING AFTN/EARLY
EVENING DEEP INLAND LATE IN WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM MONDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
CONTINUE WITH SEAS 1 TO 2 FEET. THE LATEST 3KM HRRR SHOWS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME 10 TO 15
KNOTS WINDS POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z. NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MON...PERSISTENT PATTERN WILL CONT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE MAINTAINING MAINLY S WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS. SPEEDS
WILL BE LOWEST LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING AND PEAK DURING AFTN AND
EARLY EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE
THRU THE PERIOD...HIGHEST OUTER WATERS.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...RF/CTC/CQD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
644 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK BRINGING INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE EACH
DAY THROUGH LATE WEEK. DRY BUT HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS FORECAST
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM MONDAY...CONSIDERABLE HIGH AND MID CLOUDINESS ACROSS
THE AREA JUST AFTER SUNRISE. THE COVERAGE OF STRATOCUMULUS WAS
VERY PATCHY.
THE FORECAST REMAINS ONE OF PERSISTENCE. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CREST ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY WITH
ITS AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WITH ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES IN ITS ORIENTATION
AS IT RIDGES BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE MORE SIGNIFICANT THROUGH TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL RESULT IN MORE CLOUD COVER. STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS
ATOP THE MIXED LAYER TODAY AND THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
TONIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. MOISTURE PROFILES ALSO SHOWING MORE IN
THE WAY OF HIGHER CLOUDS AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE.
SOME OF THE MODELS ARE PORTRAYING THE EASTERN EDGE OF DEVELOPING
CONVECTION BRUSHING THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PEE DEE THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE PORTRAYING NIGHTTIME CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE AND THEN MOVING ONTO THE COAST LATE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DO INCREASE TO AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF
INLAND AND AN INCH ON THE COAST DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE
DISTRIBUTION OF THIS MOISTURE...EVEN INLAND...WHERE THE MOISTURE IS
GREATEST AND DEEPEST...SHOWS A GREAT DEAL OF DRY AIR PERSISTING IN
THE MID LEVELS. AT THIS TIME...WILL REFRAIN FROM INCLUDING EVEN
SMALL POPS ANYWHERE...BUT WILL SHOW THEM INCREASING TO NEAR
THRESHOLD ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PEE DEE REGION OF SC.
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THE HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING OCEAN SHOWERS
ADVECTING ONTO LAND SOUTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER AND THEN
RIDING UP TO OUR SW AND W AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE
HIGH. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT A FEW OF THESE FAST
MOVING SHOWERS WILL SKIRT COMMUNITIES ALONG AND W OF A CKI TO UDG
LINE THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE PREDOMINATELY FROM THE SE...10 TO 20 MPH. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS A LITTLE TIGHTER TODAY AS COMPARED TO SUNDAY
SO WOULD EXPECT WINDS WILL GUST HIGHER MORE FREQUENTLY. HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE IN THE MID 80S INLAND AND LOWER 80S AT THE COAST. THE
DIURNAL CURVE WILL FLATTEN ONCE THE BEACHES REACH THE UPPER 70S LATE
THIS MORNING. TONIGHT...MOST LOCATIONS WILL OBSERVE LATE NIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH THE BEACHES AROUND 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS INCREASING HUMIDITY INTO MID-
WEEK. ALTHOUGH NOT EXACTLY A TEXTBOOK BERMUDA-HIGH
PRESSURE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST
WITH RETURN FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS COMBINES WITH AN
AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MOVING EAST...TO PRODUCE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AND SHOWER CHANCES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE TUESDAY WILL BE PRIMARILY DRY THANKS TO A
SUBSIDENT INVERSION AND VERY DRY MID-LEVELS...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RAMP UP WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND
MOIST ADVECTION INCREASES. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE
I-95 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY WHERE PWATS CLIMB TOWARDS 1.9 INCHES...BUT
EVEN THERE ONLY SCHC POP IS WARRANTED...WITH SOME LOW-END CHC
DARLINGTON/MARLBORO/ROBESON COUNTIES. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE
DIURNALLY FORCED.
TEMPS BOTH DAYS WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO WITH WIDESPREAD MID-TO-UPR
80S...LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 70 AT
THE COAST...MID 60S WEST OF I-95.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...CONTINUATION OF THE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN FOR
THE EXTENDED AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPINS OFFSHORE AND RIDGES BACK
TOWARDS THE COAST. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL ACTUALLY PEAK THURSDAY AS
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND PWATS APPROACH 2 INCHES...BUT
ONCE AGAIN THE FAVORED AREA FOR PRECIP WILL BE THE INLAND HALF OF
THE CWA. FRI-SUN...RIDGE RE-AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ALTHOUGH
NOT QUITE TO THE EXTENT AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE LOW-
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE BLOSSOMS FURTHER AND DRIVES 850MB TEMPS TO
AROUND 16C. SO...WHILE PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE INTO THE
WKND...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WITH WIDESPREAD 90S LOOKING MORE
LIKELY FOR NEXT WKND...ALTHOUGH BEACH COMMUNITIES WILL BE A SOLID 10
DEGREES COOLER. WITH THE SUBSIDENT RIDGE IN PLACE PREVENTING ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT CONTINUED ADVECTION OF HIGH DEWPOINT AIR...IT
MAY BEGIN TO FEEL PRETTY UNCOMFORTABLE AROUND THE AREA NEXT WKND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AN EARLY SUMMER BERMUDA HIGH WILL KEEP THINGS IN CHECK
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY SCATTERED CUMULUS WITH A THIN
BROKEN CIRRUS CEILING ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH A LARGE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE REGION WITH FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
BE THE RULE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR
FOG EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING...WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PATCHY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS TUE THROUGH FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM MONDAY...SE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
A BERMUDA RIDGE HOLDS SWAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 10
TO 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN STEADY...3 TO 4
FT. A WEAK 8 TO 9 SECOND E TO ESE SWELL WILL CONTINUE.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD AROUND OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE CREATES RATHER CONSISTENT CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-WEEK.
AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH...WINDS WILL BE SE OR SOUTH WITH ONLY MINOR
FLUCTUATION...AND SPEEDS NOT DEVIATING MUCH FROM 10-15 KT. THESE
WINDS WILL DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS TO 2-4 FT...WITH SOME CONTRIBUTION
FROM A 7-8 SEC SE GROUND SWELL INCREASING LATE IN THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK TOWARDS THE WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS PRODUCES A WEAK GRADIENT...AND SE WINDS BECOMING MORE
EASTERLY ON FRIDAY...WITH SPEEDS OF ONLY AROUND 10 KT. THESE
RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CAP WAVE HEIGHTS AT 2-4
FT...WITH A SE GROUND SWELL AND WEAK WIND WAVE COMPRISING THE
SPECTRUM.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
640 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK BRINGING INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE EACH
DAY THROUGH LATE WEEK. DRY BUT HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS FORECAST
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM MONDAY...CONSIDERABLE HIGH AND MID CLOUDINESS ACROSS
THE AREA JUST AFTER SUNRISE. THE COVERAGE OF STRATOCUMULUS WAS
VERY PATCHY.
THE FORECAST REMAINS ONE OF PERSISTENCE. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CREST ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY WITH
ITS AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WITH ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES IN ITS ORIENTATION
AS IT RIDGES BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE MORE SIGNIFICANT THROUGH TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL RESULT IN MORE CLOUD COVER. STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS
ATOP THE MIXED LAYER TODAY AND THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
TONIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. MOISTURE PROFILES ALSO SHOWING MORE IN
THE WAY OF HIGHER CLOUDS AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE.
SOME OF THE MODELS ARE PORTRAYING THE EASTERN EDGE OF DEVELOPING
CONVECTION BRUSHING THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PEE DEE THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE PORTRAYING NIGHTTIME CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE AND THEN MOVING ONTO THE COAST LATE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DO INCREASE TO AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF
INLAND AND AN INCH ON THE COAST DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE
DISTRIBUTION OF THIS MOISTURE...EVEN INLAND...WHERE THE MOISTURE IS
GREATEST AND DEEPEST...SHOWS A GREAT DEAL OF DRY AIR PERSISTING IN
THE MID LEVELS. AT THIS TIME...WILL REFRAIN FROM INCLUDING EVEN
SMALL POPS ANYWHERE...BUT WILL SHOW THEM INCREASING TO NEAR
THRESHOLD ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PEE DEE REGION OF SC.
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THE HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING OCEAN SHOWERS
ADVECTING ONTO LAND SOUTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER AND THEN
RIDING UP TO OUR SW AND W AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE
HIGH. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT A FEW OF THESE FAST
MOVING SHOWERS WILL SKIRT COMMUNITIES ALONG AND W OF A CKI TO UDG
LINE THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE PREDOMINATELY FROM THE SE...10 TO 20 MPH. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS A LITTLE TIGHTER TODAY AS COMPARED TO SUNDAY
SO WOULD EXPECT WINDS WILL GUST HIGHER MORE FREQUENTLY. HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE IN THE MID 80S INLAND AND LOWER 80S AT THE COAST. THE
DIURNAL CURVE WILL FLATTEN ONCE THE BEACHES REACH THE UPPER 70S LATE
THIS MORNING. TONIGHT...MOST LOCATIONS WILL OBSERVE LATE NIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH THE BEACHES AROUND 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS INCREASING HUMIDITY INTO MID-
WEEK. ALTHOUGH NOT EXACTLY A TEXTBOOK BERMUDA-HIGH
PRESSURE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST
WITH RETURN FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS COMBINES WITH AN
AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MOVING EAST...TO PRODUCE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AND SHOWER CHANCES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE TUESDAY WILL BE PRIMARILY DRY THANKS TO A
SUBSIDENT INVERSION AND VERY DRY MID-LEVELS...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RAMP UP WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND
MOIST ADVECTION INCREASES. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE
I-95 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY WHERE PWATS CLIMB TOWARDS 1.9 INCHES...BUT
EVEN THERE ONLY SCHC POP IS WARRANTED...WITH SOME LOW-END CHC
DARLINGTON/MARLBORO/ROBESON COUNTIES. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE
DIURNALLY FORCED.
TEMPS BOTH DAYS WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO WITH WIDESPREAD MID-TO-UPR
80S...LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 70 AT
THE COAST...MID 60S WEST OF I-95.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...CONTINUATION OF THE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN FOR
THE EXTENDED AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPINS OFFSHORE AND RIDGES BACK
TOWARDS THE COAST. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL ACTUALLY PEAK THURSDAY AS
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND PWATS APPROACH 2 INCHES...BUT
ONCE AGAIN THE FAVORED AREA FOR PRECIP WILL BE THE INLAND HALF OF
THE CWA. FRI-SUN...RIDGE RE-AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ALTHOUGH
NOT QUITE TO THE EXTENT AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE LOW-
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE BLOSSOMS FURTHER AND DRIVES 850MB TEMPS TO
AROUND 16C. SO...WHILE PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE INTO THE
WKND...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WITH WIDESPREAD 90S LOOKING MORE
LIKELY FOR NEXT WKND...ALTHOUGH BEACH COMMUNITIES WILL BE A SOLID 10
DEGREES COOLER. WITH THE SUBSIDENT RIDGE IN PLACE PREVENTING ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT CONTINUED ADVECTION OF HIGH DEWPOINT AIR...IT
MAY BEGIN TO FEEL PRETTY UNCOMFORTABLE AROUND THE AREA NEXT WKND.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS
THE TERMINALS FROM THE ATLANTIC THIS TAF VALID PERIOD...THUS WILL
CONTINUE WITH A PERSISTENT TYPE FORECAST. E-SE WINDS EXPECTED
EARLY THIS MORNING...EXCEPT AT KFLO/KLBT AND KILM WHERE WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM. AFTER SUNRISE WIND SPEEDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE BECOMING OCCASIONALLY GUSTY AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING. THE PERSISTENT SE WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH A BIT MORE
CLOUDS AT A SLIGHTLY LOWER LEVEL EXPECTED AS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY.
CONCERNING FOG POTENTIAL IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...HIGH PRESSURE
SURFACE AND ALOFT...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...CLEAR SKIES AND
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...ALL SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR FOG
ESPECIALLY AT KFLO/KLBT AND KILM WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST. BUT
THERE IS A LAYER OF MOISTURE NEAR 4K THAT COULD REDUCE RADIATIONAL
COOLING AS WELL AS 10-15 KT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS THAT COULD KEEP THE
LOW LEVELS MIXED. WILL LEAVE TEMPO MVFR IN TAFS ATTM BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PATCHY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS TUE THROUGH FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM MONDAY...SE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
A BERMUDA RIDGE HOLDS SWAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 10
TO 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN STEADY...3 TO 4
FT. A WEAK 8 TO 9 SECOND E TO ESE SWELL WILL CONTINUE.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD AROUND OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE CREATES RATHER CONSISTENT CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-WEEK.
AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH...WINDS WILL BE SE OR SOUTH WITH ONLY MINOR
FLUCTUATION...AND SPEEDS NOT DEVIATING MUCH FROM 10-15 KT. THESE
WINDS WILL DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS TO 2-4 FT...WITH SOME CONTRIBUTION
FROM A 7-8 SEC SE GROUND SWELL INCREASING LATE IN THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK TOWARDS THE WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS PRODUCES A WEAK GRADIENT...AND SE WINDS BECOMING MORE
EASTERLY ON FRIDAY...WITH SPEEDS OF ONLY AROUND 10 KT. THESE
RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CAP WAVE HEIGHTS AT 2-4
FT...WITH A SE GROUND SWELL AND WEAK WIND WAVE COMPRISING THE
SPECTRUM.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RJD/MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
959 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
THIS EVENT CONTINUES TO UNFOLD AS EXPECTED. 700MB LOW SITS ACROSS
THE FERGUS FALLS/ELBOW LAKE AREA...WITH A SFC LOW ACROSS CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE MID-LEVEL
LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT (OR BECOME MORE
ELONGATED). THIS WOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING FORCING GRADUALLY ENDING
FROM WEST TO EAST. UPDATED POPS TO 100% WHERE IT IS RAINING...AND
USED THE HRRR FOR TIMING. ALSO...INCREASED QPF ACROSS THE WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA COUNTIES. SEBEKA OBSERVER REPORTED 0.76
INCHES...AND WOULD THINK ANOTHER 0.75 INCHES LIKELY GIVEN ANOTHER
6-9 HRS OF RAINFALL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
WITHIN THE LARGER UPPER TROUGH OVER WYOMING/SD/NEBRASKA REGION
AREA SEVERAL SMALLER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES. ONE IS IN ERN SD AND
THIS WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST THRU CNTRL MN TODAY. THIS HAS
BROUGHT THE ENHANCED LIGHT RAIN WHICH HAS LONG BEEN FORECASTED FOR
SRN ND INTO CNTRL MN. ALL MODELS NOW SHOW THE NRN EDGE OF LIGHT
RAIN TODAY VERY NEAR A WASKISH-RED LAKE FALLS-CROOKSTON-GRAND
FORKS-NEW ROCKFORD LINE...WITH ITS NRN EXTENT LATE MORNING BEFORE
DROPPING BACK SOUTH IN THE AFTN. GRIDS FOLLOWED THIS WELL SO ONLY
MINOR TWEEKS WERE NEEDED. RAINFALL WILL END THIS EVE IN WCNTRL MN.
TUESDAY WILL SEE MORE SUN AND IT WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH HIGHS
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SRN SASK INTO
SRN MANITOBA ALONG WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL GENERATE A FEW
T-STORMS IN THE AFTN/EVE OVER NE ND/NW MN. MINOR EVENT AND KEPT
POPS IN THE 20-30 RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
ANOTHER WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH 70S AND LOWER 80S. SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY REMAINS MAINLY NEAR A BOUNDARY IN SRN CANADA SO
MAINTAINED A LOW POP NRN AREAS FOR ANY AFTN T-STORMS.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY WILL STAY IN ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL HAVE ONE SHORT WAVE THAT WILL AFFECT
THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL BE
THURSDAY THEN SLOWLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY. COLD
FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA THU NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN MUCH
COOLER TEMPS FRI INTO SAT. SAT MORNING LOWS COULD BE IN THE UPPER
30S IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH HIGHS FRI/SAT IN THE 60S. TEMPS THEN
MODERATE BY SUN INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 704 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
VFR CLOUDS OVER THE TAF SITES TODAY...THOUGH BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT
BJI/FAR COULD OCCUR. SOME MVFR VSBY IN -RA AS WELL THIS MORNING AT
FAR/BJI. KEPT DVL/GFK/TVF DRY. WINDS VERY LIGHT TODAY AND
VARIABLE. A BIT MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT IN FARGO DUE TO CLOSER TO
A SURFACE TO IN SOUTHERN MN.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
856 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 851 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE WAS TO INTRODUCE POPS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL. THE 11-12 UTC HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST WEAK...SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION WITH DIURNAL HEATING. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE 06
UTC NAM AND 09 UTC SREF. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK. NOW THAT THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD HAS FILLED IN...THERE IS BETTER JUSTIFICATION TO BUMP UP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM THE JAMES VALLEY TO THE EASTERN
MISSOURI VALLEY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MADE ONLY AESTHETIC
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS RAIN.
EARLY THIS MORNING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WERE BREAKING OUT
ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW AND VORT MAX
IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. LIGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTH
DAKOTA...THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES WERE VISIBLE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ONE WAS CENTERED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. THE MODELS HAVE THIS VORT MAX PHASING WITH THE OTHER
NEARBY IMPULSES THIS AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY EXITING THE REGION. THE
WRF/RAP SHOW RAIN SCATTERING OUT AND WINDING DOWN BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WRF/RAP ALSO INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY MIGHT DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...KEPT
A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...BUT
REMOVED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EVERYWHERE ELSE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. WITH THE SURFACE LOW
AND BEST FORCING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY SEE THE BULK OF THE RAIN.
AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.5 TO AS MUCH AS 1.0 INCHES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
THE FORECAST FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON PRECIPITATION.
EASTERN PACIFIC REX BLOCKING AND RESULTANT DOWNSTREAM SPLIT FLOW
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL DAYS WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
BECAUSE OF THE FLOW REGIME COMPLEXITY...THOUGH... FORECASTS HAVE
HIGHER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY.
MUCH OF THE UNCERTAINTY STEMS FROM NORTH DAKOTA FALLING IN THE
ZONE BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM.
WHEN MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WITHIN EACH BRANCH BECOME PHASED...THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHEST. SUCH IS THE CASE ON
WEDNESDAY...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/NAM/GEFS/GEM GLOBAL.
03 UTC SREF PROBABILITY FOR CAPE GREATER THAN 500 J/KG IS OVER 50
PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
DAKOTAS...SO THAT IS ALSO THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...THERE ARE SEVERAL SHORTWAVES THAT
JUSTIFY SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 851 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN WILL CONTINUE AT KBIS AND KJMS
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN BECOMING MORE SCATTERED
THEREAFTER. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ELSEWHERE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WILL INTRODUCE VCSH FOR
NOW AT KDIK/KISN/KMOT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
752 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS FOR THE
START OF THE WEEK. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO EASTERN INDIANA AND PARTS OF WESTERN OHIO
EARLY THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION TRENDS APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY
AHEAD OF MODEL FORECASTS. I WILL MODIFY THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST
TO ADJUST FOR THE SHORT TERM TRENDS AND INCREASE THE POPS FOR THIS
MORNING MAINLY IN NW OHIO. HOURLY TEMPERATURES ARE TOO COOL AND
WILL BE ADJUSTED UP A FEW DEGREES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE FORECAST AREA
IS IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SHOW A SHORT
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA 18Z-00Z TIME FRAME. A
MODERATELY STRONG 850MB JET OVER INDIANA SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH SOME
OF THE HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR INTO THE REGION. THE DEEPER MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE SHOWERS WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT BUT THE HRRR MODEL KEEPS THE COVERAGE
FAIRLY SCATTERED. I WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE
FOR TODAY. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE AND I WILL NOT
STRAY FAR FROM THESE VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING ON
TUESDAY WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
MORE WIDESPREAD ON TUESDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY. THE GFS SHOWS THE HEAD
OF AN 850MB JET PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN OHIO IN THE AFTERNOON ON
TUESDAY AND THIS COULD TRIGGER SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION. SPC HAS A
SLIGHT RISK REGION JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
WFO CLE AREA HIGHLIGHTED AS MARGINAL. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. A BRIEF RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO SHIFT TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY...
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. AMPLE SUN SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH TOWARDS THE
AREA. MODELS HAVE CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN TIMING THE FRONT WITH THE
00Z/25 GFS RUNNING NEARLY 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM.
HAVE SIDED WITH THE BETTER CONSENSUS FOR NOW AND KEPT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAIRLY LOW ON FRIDAY NIGHT...RAMPING UP AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES ON SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO ADJUST FRONTAL TIMING
AS MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEK. THE FRONT
APPEARS TO STALL OVER THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN SETTING UP.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS OUT OF THE PLAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST OHIO AFTER 12Z. LIFT WILL
INCREASE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A LITTLE BETTER HEATING WILL BE FOCUSED TO THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH MAY RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AT
THE EASTERN SITES...STARTING AT MFD/CLE AT 19Z AND REACHING ERI BY
23Z. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE
EXPECTING VFR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUE TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND SOME
BR OR STRATUS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS RAMP UP TODAY
TO 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS THROUGH 23Z.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MON NIGHT THROUGH WED IN SCT SHRA AND
TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BRISK TODAY WITH WINDS WEST OF VERMILION
APPROACHING 20 KNOTS. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY COOL WATER
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THE WAVE RESPONSE TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO HOLD
OFF FOR NOW ON ISSUING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE
ON WINDS THIS MORNING AND MAY NEED TO ISSUE FOR THE AFTERNOON IF
WINDS CREEP UP HIGH ENOUGH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.
WINDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GARNET
NEAR TERM...GARNET
SHORT TERM...GARNET
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
659 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE UNDERNEATH A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MID WEEK. EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL INTERACT WITH THE
MOISTURE TO BRING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT TO A POSITION ALONG THE EAST
COAST TODAY. DEEPER MOISTURE FUNNELING NORTHWARD BETWEEN THE HIGH
TO THE EAST AND A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL RESULT IN
AN INCREASING CLOUDS. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN EMBEDDED
S/WV WHICH IS FORECAST TO PIVOT NORTHEAST FROM THE MID MS VLY TO
THE WRN GREAT LAKES. A VORTICITY AXIS ALOFT WILL COMBINED WITH A
SUBTLE CONVERGENT AXIS IN THE LOW LEVELS TO BRING THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC AND
NCEP/ESRL HRRR RUNS...LIKELY POPS ARE PROBABLY NEEDED FOR THE FAR
WRN ZONES FROM MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. DIURNAL HEATING
AND A MORE MIXED ATMOSPHERE SHOULD TRANSITION THE PLUME OF
MOISTURE (AXIS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS) TO A SCATTERED
DISTRIBUTION AS IT HEADS EAST. ANOTHER WEATHER ELEMENT TO CONSIDER
TODAY WILL BE THE WINDS. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SOME MIXING OF STRONG WINDS
ALOFT...WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 40 MPH FAR
NORTHWEST WITH DIMINISHING SPEEDS (AROUND 20 MPH) IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST. DESPITE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...MOST AREA SHOULD REACH
THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE WEIGHTED THE FORECAST BETWEEN THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z GFS AND
AVAILABLE HIGH RES/CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS.
FOR TONIGHT...THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL WANE THIS EVENING AS
S/WV AND SUBTLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT AXIS PIVOT NORTH AND EAST.
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE CONFINED MORE TO OUR SRN ZONES.
BY LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING...INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL PUSH DEEPER MOISTURE BACK TO THE NORTH. SOME LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL SPREAD CHANCE POPS BACK TO THE NORTH AS WELL.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.
FOR TUESDAY...MODELS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER EMBEDDED S/WV IN THE
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME MODELS...SUCH AS THE
ECMWF...INDICATE ANOTHER POSSIBLE CONVERGENT AXIS. THE DEEP
MOISTURE (PWATS BETWEEN 1.50 AND 1.80 INCHES) WILL INTERACT WITH
AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN LIKELY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT PART OF OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS REMAIN IN A MARGINAL RISK. IT LOOKS LIKE
THAT IT MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO OBTAIN LOW END MODERATE SHEAR/LOW
END MODERATE INSTABILITY. ALSO..GIVEN TALL SKINNY CAPES PER MODEL
SOUNDINGS...THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE LOW. THE FLOW IS
MODEST IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS...SO IF SOME STORMS CAN ORGANIZE
INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS...SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS...POSSIBLE SEVERE
GUSTS...MAY OCCUR. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LOW THREAT FOR SVR
IN THE HWO.
FOR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED S/WV
MOVES NORTHEAST FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER S/WV APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
ON WEDNESDAY. THE WEDNESDAY S/WV WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. WE SHOULD SEE A DIURNAL MIN IN CONVECTION BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND THEN ANOTHER UPTICK DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND HUMID WITH LOWS IN THE
60S AND HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WHILE PCPN CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF ANY EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVES...WILL TRY TO SHOW SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT TO THE
PCPN CHANCES FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. INITIALLY THIS
WILL LEAD TO A LITTLE MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF LULL IN THE PCPN CHANCES. A
BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN WILL THEN RETURN LATER FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THIS
WILL EVENTUALLY HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN TOWARD OUR AREA
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
SLOWER ON THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS SO
AM HESITANT TO GO ANY HIGHER THAN CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE POPS AT
THIS POINT.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...SOME MORE SEASONABLE
READINGS MAY RETURN FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WINDS AT 925MB /2KFT/ ARE 45KT ON AREA RADAR VAD WIND PROFILERS THIS
MORNING SO BORDERLINE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR BUT SO FAR WIND SHEAR
COMING UP JUST SHY OF CRITERIA GIVEN UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW. NO DOUBT
SOME MECHANICAL TURBULENCE THROUGH THIS LAYER THOUGH BEFORE LOW
LEVEL JET MIXES OUT BY 13Z OR SO. WHEN THIS OCCURS SURFACE GUSTS
WILL COME UP AND HAVE GUSTS TOWARD 30KTS ESP WRN TAF SITES LIKE
DAY/CVG/ILN. WINDS SHOULD BACK OFF A LITTLE BY AFTN AS LOW LEVEL
JET MIXES OUT.
PLUME OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL JUST GRAZE CVG/LUK/DAY THIS MORNING SO
INDICATED P6SM -SHRA IN THESE LOCATIONS THIS MORNING...THEN A
LULL...THEN SCT SHRA THIS AFTERNOON IN PEAK HEATING IN ALL
LOCATIONS AS AREAS IS GRAZED BY SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MAY BE SOME
THUNDER BUT SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED.
PLENTY OF VFR CIGS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH MOIST PLUME IN SWLY
FLOW. COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBY LATE TONIGHT...BUT FOR
NOW HAVE JUST TRENDED SOME LIGHT MIST /BR/ AT LUK WITH CIGS
REMAINING VFR.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...BINAU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
616 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS FOR THE
START OF THE WEEK. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO EASTERN INDIANA AND PARTS OF WESTERN OHIO
EARLY THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION TRENDS APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY
AHEAD OF MODEL FORECASTS. I WILL MODIFY THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST
TO ADJUST FOR THE SHORT TERM TRENDS AND INCREASE THE POPS FOR THIS
MORNING MAINLY IN NW OHIO. HOURLY TEMPERATURES ARE TOO COOL AND
WILL BE ADJUSTED UP A FEW DEGREES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE FORECAST AREA
IS IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SHOW A SHORT
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA 18Z-00Z TIME FRAME. A
MODERATELY STRONG 850MB JET OVER INDIANA SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH SOME
OF THE HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR INTO THE REGION. THE DEEPER MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE SHOWERS WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT BUT THE HRRR MODEL KEEPS THE COVERAGE
FAIRLY SCATTERED. I WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE
FOR TODAY. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE AND I WILL NOT
STRAY FAR FROM THESE VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING ON
TUESDAY WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
MORE WIDESPREAD ON TUESDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY. THE GFS SHOWS THE HEAD
OF AN 850MB JET PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN OHIO IN THE AFTERNOON ON
TUESDAY AND THIS COULD TRIGGER SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION. SPC HAS A
SLIGHT RISK REGION JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
WFO CLE AREA HIGHLIGHTED AS MARGINAL. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. A BRIEF RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO SHIFT TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY...
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. AMPLE SUN SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH TOWARDS THE
AREA. MODELS HAVE CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN TIMING THE FRONT WITH THE
00Z/25 GFS RUNNING NEARLY 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM.
HAVE SIDED WITH THE BETTER CONSENSUS FOR NOW AND KEPT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAIRLY LOW ON FRIDAY NIGHT...RAMPING UP AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES ON SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO ADJUST FRONTAL TIMING
AS MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEK. THE FRONT
APPEARS TO STALL OVER THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN SETTING UP.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS OUT OF THE PLAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL APPROACH THE TOL/FDY AREA BY 16Z...FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE
HOUR WINDOW WHERE THERE WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE...REACHING CLE/MFD TOWARDS 20Z AND CAK/YNG/ERI BETWEEN
21-02Z. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AND WILL LIKELY NOT
IMPACT EVERY SITE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WHERE BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE. SOUTHERLY WINDS RAMP
UP TO 15-20 KNOTS BY 15Z WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS THROUGH 23Z.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MON NIGHT THROUGH WED IN SCT SHRA AND
TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BRISK TODAY WITH WINDS WEST OF VERMILION
APPROACHING 20 KNOTS. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY COOL WATER
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THE WAVE RESPONSE TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO HOLD
OFF FOR NOW ON ISSUING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE
ON WINDS THIS MORNING AND MAY NEED TO ISSUE FOR THE AFTERNOON IF
WINDS CREEP UP HIGH ENOUGH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.
WINDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GARNET
NEAR TERM...GARNET
SHORT TERM...GARNET
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
741 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ALL OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE/CONVECTIVE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT STRONG TO SEVERE
MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
PATCHY FOG / LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT THIS MORNING.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CURRENTLY OVER WEST-
CENTRAL TEXAS TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE STRONGER CELLS AS COMPLEX
SWEEPS AREA FROM SW TO NE. LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG / LOWER CLOUD CEILINGS
REDEVELOPING.
AS A SIDE NOTE: CURRENTLY EVALUATING WHETHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH
NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA GIVEN
POTENTIAL MCS TRACK.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 456 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/
DISCUSSION...
FLOOD WATCH SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FROM 4 PM TO
NOON TUESDAY.
UPPER WAVE HAS ROUNDED THE BEND FAR WEST TEXAS
AND IS HEADED FOR SOUTHEAST OK. A WIDE SPECTRUM
MODEL SOLUTIONS...WITH GFS SHUNTING BULK PRECIP
TO SOUTHEAST WHILE ECMWF PLACES MAX PRECIP OVER
WATCH AREA. EVER WET CANADIAN MODEL PLACES MORE
THAN 2 INCH PRECIP OVER ALL OF SOUTHEAST OK AND
WEST CENTRAL AR IN A...6 HOUR PERIOD..ENDING AT
06Z! LATEST HRRR RUNS GIVE CREDENCE TO GENERAL
ECMWF SOLUTION. ALMOST ANY PRECIP FROM THUNDER
WILL BE CAPABLE OF 1 INCH/ 30 MIN RAINFALL RATE
AND INITIATE FLOODING. STAY INFORMED STAY TUNED.
MOST PRECIPITATION WILL OVER BY TUESDAY MORNING.
NO REAL BREAK..THE REST OF THIS SHORT WORK WEEK
WITH CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDER MENTIONED EVERY DAY.
MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN COMING OVER THE
WEEKEND (OF COURSE) AS YET ANOTHER POTENT UPPER
WAVE MOVES FROM THE WESTERN STATES INTO PLAINS.
GW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 81 63 82 65 / 60 40 20 50
FSM 81 64 82 68 / 80 90 30 40
MLC 78 64 82 68 / 90 60 20 40
BVO 81 60 82 62 / 60 30 20 50
FYV 78 62 79 62 / 60 80 30 40
BYV 80 64 80 63 / 50 80 30 40
MKO 78 63 81 66 / 60 60 20 50
MIO 79 63 81 63 / 50 50 20 50
F10 77 61 80 65 / 80 50 20 50
HHW 78 64 82 67 / 90 80 20 40
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-
OKZ053-OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-
OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-
OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-
ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
707 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE WEST TO EAST AT ALL SITES
THROUGH 21Z. A FEW SITES MAY GO TO LIFR THROUGH 15Z.
TSRA WILL AFFECT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT PERHAPS KWWR AND KGAG
18-24Z. BRIEF VERY STRONG WINDS AND MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR WITH TSRA.
AFTER 00Z...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES. WENT WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR
NOW THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
FORM...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z.
MBS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/
DISCUSSION...
ADDITIONAL FLOODING...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TODAY...REMAIN THE MAIN CONCERNS.
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN GREAT SHAPE TODAY AND DID NOT ALTER.
THIS MORNING...WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. THINK CAPPING
WILL NOT ALLOW FOR STORM FORMATION.
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FROM A POTENT FAST MOVING MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE/SHORT WAVE THAT WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST TODAY AND
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS...PARTICULARLY
THE HRRR AND WRF MODELS...SUGGEST THAT A FAST MOVING LINE
BAND...BOW...OR LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND AFFECT
MUCH OF THE AREA. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES NEAR A WICHITA FALLS TO DURANT LINE. THIS
COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY AFFECT FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS NEAR KNOX
CITY AND CROWELL AS EARLY AS 11 AM THEN EXIT THE PONCA CITY AND
DURANT AREAS TOWARDS 9 PM. THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA WILL MOST
LIKELY BE AFFECTED IN THE 3 TO 6 PM TIME FRAME.
IN REGARDS TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONCERNED WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
OF 1 INCH OR MORE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE LINE OF STORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE VERY RAPID RUNOFF AND
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT THINK TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE EXCESSIVE...GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES AS THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST. THUS...KEPT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN
EFFECT.
IN REGARDS TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND
EVENT NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF I-44 WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 70 MPH. THE
AIR WILL BE MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.3 TO 1.8
INCH RANGE AND VERY UNSTABLE...MLCAPE 2000-4000 J/KG...ALONG WITH
STRONG 0-6 KM 30-50 KT SHEAR. THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES DUE TO INCREASING 0-1 KM SHEAR IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE
SOUTHEAST OF I-44. SOME SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR AS WELL...BUT SIZES
MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF THE LARGE LINE OR
BOW OF STORMS. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS
AHEAD OF THE MAIN BOW OR LINE...BUT THIS POTENTIAL SEEMS TO BE
QUITE LOW.
STORMS SHOULD MAINLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR STORMS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORT WAVE/DISTURBANCE SHOULD LIMIT STORM FORMATION.
SOME PATCHY FOG COULD FORM LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BUT
DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE...THOUGH
SHOULD BE LOWER THAN TODAY DUE TO SLIGHTLY WARMER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAPPING. THE AIR WILL BE VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH MARGINAL SHEAR SO A FEW SEVERE STORMS
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING REMAIN POSSIBLE.
STORM COVERAGE AND MOTION SHOULD BE LOWER COMPARED TO TODAY. WILL
NOT EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE LOWER
COVERAGE OF STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL GET CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...STORM CHANCES CONTINUE NEARLY EACH DAY.
MORE HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING...AND SEVERE STORMS COULD
OCCUR NEARLY EACH DAY AS THE AIR WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 79 63 81 64 / 70 20 20 50
HOBART OK 77 59 82 61 / 50 20 20 40
WICHITA FALLS TX 78 63 85 65 / 90 20 20 20
GAGE OK 79 56 80 57 / 20 20 30 20
PONCA CITY OK 80 61 80 62 / 30 20 20 50
DURANT OK 79 65 83 67 / 90 40 20 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ008-012-013-
016>020-022>032-035-037>048-050>052.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ085-086-
088>090.
&&
$$
23/17/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
648 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
PATCHY FOG / LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT THIS MORNING.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CURRENTLY OVER WEST-
CENTRAL TEXAS TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE STRONGER CELLS AS COMPLEX
SWEEPS AREA FROM SW TO NE. LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG / LOWER CLOUD CEILINGS
REDEVELOPING.
AS A SIDE NOTE: CURRENTLY EVALUATING WHETHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH
NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA GIVEN
POTENTIAL MCS TRACK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 456 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/
DISCUSSION...
FLOOD WATCH SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FROM 4 PM TO
NOON TUESDAY.
UPPER WAVE HAS ROUNDED THE BEND FAR WEST TEXAS
AND IS HEADED FOR SOUTHEAST OK. A WIDE SPECTRUM
MODEL SOLUTIONS...WITH GFS SHUNTING BULK PRECIP
TO SOUTHEAST WHILE ECMWF PLACES MAX PRECIP OVER
WATCH AREA. EVER WET CANADIAN MODEL PLACES MORE
THAN 2 INCH PRECIP OVER ALL OF SOUTHEAST OK AND
WEST CENTRAL AR IN A...6 HOUR PERIOD..ENDING AT
06Z! LATEST HRRR RUNS GIVE CREDENCE TO GENERAL
ECMWF SOLUTION. ALMOST ANY PRECIP FROM THUNDER
WILL BE CAPABLE OF 1 INCH/ 30 MIN RAINFALL RATE
AND INITIATE FLOODING. STAY INFORMED STAY TUNED.
MOST PRECIPITATION WILL OVER BY TUESDAY MORNING.
NO REAL BREAK..THE REST OF THIS SHORT WORK WEEK
WITH CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDER MENTIONED EVERY DAY.
MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN COMING OVER THE
WEEKEND (OF COURSE) AS YET ANOTHER POTENT UPPER
WAVE MOVES FROM THE WESTERN STATES INTO PLAINS.
GW
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-
OKZ053-OKZ069-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-
ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.
&&
$$
AVIATION...12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1050 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE. ITS BEEN A BUSY MONDAY MORNING...BUT THINGS ARE
FINALLY SETTLING DOWN ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. THE BREAK MAY PROVE TO
BE SHORT LIVED AS WE ARE RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING ACROSS THE REGION.
EAST ARKANSAS ALREADY HAS CAPES IN EXCESS OF 1000K/KG WITH LI`S
BETWEEN -2 AND -4C. WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TODAY
HELPING US TO DESTABILIZE EVEN FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60 AND AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE...DYNAMIC ENERGY MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO RESULT IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EVEN IF WE DID NOT HAVE
THE THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT.
&&
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
EAST INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING. A LEAD SHORTWAVE
IS CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE MID SOUTH EARLY
THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AREAS
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS MORNING. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL DRY OUT TEMPORARILY LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
AS A PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRY SLOT ROTATES ACROSS THE REGION.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DURING THIS PERIOD
AND DECENT SURFACE HEATING SHOULD OCCUR AND HELP TO DESTABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE AGAIN BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR 80 DEGREES ACROSS EASTERN AREAS TO THE
MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA AREAS.
ANOTHER DISTINCT SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING. THERE
REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AMONG THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
WITH THE GFS AND NAM/WRF RUNS SUGGESTING AN EARLIER ARRIVAL
COMPARED TO THE LATEST ECMWF. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT AN
EARLIER ARRIVAL FALLS IN LINE WITH THE OVERALL DAILY MODEL RUN TO
RUN CONTINUITY ALONG WITH THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR OUTPUT.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHICH
SHOULD EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO A LINE AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.
LATEST PREFERABLE MODEL OUTPUT WITH EARLIER TIMING SUGGESTS THAT
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL AGAIN DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SBCAPE VALUES
RISING TO BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG BY 00Z TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...AS
THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THIS EVENING EXPECT 0-1 SRH TO INCREASE
TO BETWEEN 200-300 M^2/S^2 AS LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN BACKED TO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH A VEERING PROFILE WITH HEIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET WINDS
ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS WILL OVERSPREAD WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. LARGE SCALE ASCENT
WITH THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP QUICKLY BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND SPREAD
QUICKLY NORTHEAST AS A QUASI LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (QLCS) INTO
AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS EVENING. LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN ADVANCE OF THIS LINE. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
AGAIN FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL AGAIN
BE DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.
THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES. THERE MAY
BE A FEW ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IF
REALIZED WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING. THEREFORE...HAVE
CONTINUED AND EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE MID
SOUTH THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY.
AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY
MORNING...THE AREA WILL BE LEFT UNDER AN AREA OF BROAD UPPER
TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW TO OUR
NORTHWEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY BUT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNORGANIZED THROUGH THE DAY AS FOCUSED LIFT DIMINISHES AND DEEP
LAYER WIND FIELDS WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED LATE IN THE
WEEK BUT WITH A CONTINUED TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO MAINLY DIURNALLY FORCED CONVECTION.
A FEW PULSE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS AS STRONG
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS BUT WITH WEAK WIND FIELDS. ANY STORM WILL BE
SLOW MOVING AND COULD ALSO PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES ALONG WITH CONTINUED HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND AND MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUATION AND
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM WITH HUMID WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
JLH
&&
.AVIATION...12Z TAF CYCLE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END THIS
MORNING EAST OF THE MS RIVER. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER
MS VALLEY TONIGHT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A COMPLEX OF SHRAS/TSRAS
TO AFFECT MEM/JBR BETWEEN 01-05Z AND MEM/TUP BETWEEN 06-10Z ALONG
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. S WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT.
CJC
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR BENTON TN-
CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-
HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
644 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
EAST INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING. A LEAD SHORTWAVE
IS CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE MID SOUTH EARLY
THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AREAS
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS MORNING. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL DRY OUT TEMPORARILY LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
AS A PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRY SLOT ROTATES ACROSS THE REGION.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DURING THIS PERIOD
AND DECENT SURFACE HEATING SHOULD OCCUR AND HELP TO DESTABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE AGAIN BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR 80 DEGREES ACROSS EASTERN AREAS TO THE
MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA AREAS.
ANOTHER DISTINCT SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING. THERE
REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AMONG THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
WITH THE GFS AND NAM/WRF RUNS SUGGESTING AN EARLIER ARRIVAL
COMPARED TO THE LATEST ECMWF. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT AN
EARLIER ARRIVAL FALLS IN LINE WITH THE OVERALL DAILY MODEL RUN TO
RUN CONTINUITY ALONG WITH THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR OUTPUT.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHICH
SHOULD EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO A LINE AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.
LATEST PREFERABLE MODEL OUTPUT WITH EARLIER TIMING SUGGESTS THAT
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL AGAIN DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SBCAPE VALUES
RISING TO BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG BY 00Z TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...AS
THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THIS EVENING EXPECT 0-1 SRH TO INCREASE
TO BETWEEN 200-300 M^2/S^2 AS LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN BACKED TO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH A VEERING PROFILE WITH HEIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET WINDS
ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS WILL OVERSPREAD WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. LARGE SCALE ASCENT
WITH THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP QUICKLY BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND SPREAD
QUICKLY NORTHEAST AS A QUASI LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (QLCS) INTO
AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS EVENING. LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN ADVANCE OF THIS LINE. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
AGAIN FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL AGAIN
BE DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.
THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES. THERE MAY
BE A FEW ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IF
REALIZED WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING. THEREFORE...HAVE
CONTINUED AND EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE MID
SOUTH THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY.
AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY
MORNING...THE AREA WILL BE LEFT UNDER AN AREA OF BROAD UPPER
TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW TO OUR
NORTHWEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY BUT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNORGANIZED THROUGH THE DAY AS FOCUSED LIFT DIMINISHES AND DEEP
LAYER WIND FIELDS WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED LATE IN THE
WEEK BUT WITH A CONTINUED TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO MAINLY DIURNALLY FORCED CONVECTION.
A FEW PULSE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS AS STRONG
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS BUT WITH WEAK WIND FIELDS. ANY STORM WILL BE
SLOW MOVING AND COULD ALSO PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES ALONG WITH CONTINUED HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND AND MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUATION AND
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM WITH HUMID WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
JLH
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END THIS
MORNING EAST OF THE MS RIVER. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER
MS VALLEY TONIGHT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A COMPLEX OF SHRAS/TSRAS
TO AFFECT MEM/JBR BETWEEN 01-05Z AND MEM/TUP BETWEEN 06-10Z ALONG
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. S WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT.
CJC
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR BENTON TN-
CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-
HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
648 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015
.UPDATE...
Update to include Severe Thunderstorm Watch number 209.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms have blossomed over the Permian Basin this morning.
Due to a compact, but strong shortwave trough moving over the
area, decent elevated instability and steep mid level lapse rates,
some of the storms are producing large hail. Think storms will
move rapidly off to the northeast.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015/
DISCUSSION...As of 4:30 AM CDT Monday...Complicated forecast for
this morning into the early aftn. Water vapor imagery is indc a
potent shortwave in Northern Chihuahua rounding the base of the
trough in the southern Rockies. IR imagery is indc a baroclinic
leaf structure with rapidly cooling cloud tops in Southwest TX.
Convection has developed in the Plains north and east of the Davis
Mtns and in the Western and Southern Permian Basin. While
initially having a hard time getting going has now started to
intensify. Even though there is decent low level CIN...latest
Mesoscale Analysis is indc good MLCAPE and very steep mid level
lapse rates of 8C/KM. KMAF VAD Profile is indc a 40+ kt low level
southerly jet as well. The HRRR has been very consistent in
developing strong convection and moving it into the Permian Basin
and the Low Rolling Plains this morning. The HRRR is indc very
impressive rain rates along with training cells. SPC has the
Permian Basin and Low Rolling Plains in a slight risk with the
main severe threat large hail. This will continue to be monitored
thru the morning hours.
After passage of the shortwave low amplitude ridging will move
over the Southern Plains. This will bring dry weather tonight
thru Tuesday night. With H85 temps increasing along with downslope
low level winds temps should reach into the 90s across the Plains
with 80s in the mtns.
Yet another mid/upper low...currently near 28/143...will open into
a trough and will move in the subtropical jet to near northern
Baja by Wed morning. This will turn the mid/upper flow to
southwest and will allow low level moisture to stream into the CWA
from the Gulf of Mexico. Impulses moving in the flow aloft...
combined with the low level moist flow out of the Gulf of Mexico
will bring at least a chance of convection across most of the CWA
from Wednesday right thru next weekend as our wet pattern
continues.
Strobin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 84 59 90 63 / 30 0 0 10
BIG SPRING TX 86 63 91 68 / 40 10 0 10
CARLSBAD NM 86 53 91 57 / 10 0 0 10
DRYDEN TX 93 63 93 71 / 20 10 10 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 87 60 93 66 / 20 0 0 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 76 57 82 60 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 82 55 88 60 / 10 10 0 10
MARFA TX 78 43 85 52 / 10 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 86 59 92 66 / 30 10 0 10
ODESSA TX 86 61 92 66 / 30 10 0 10
WINK TX 87 57 95 65 / 20 0 0 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
99/99
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
647 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
Showers/thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across far
southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin this morning, thus have
included TEMPOs for KHOB, KMAF, and KINK through mid/late morning.
Brief reductions in visibility to MVFR are expected in heavy rain
if any storms pass over the terminals. Otherwise, expect VFR
conditions to prevail area-wide from this afternoon onward, with
southwest winds gusting up to around 20kt. Gusts will diminish
after sunset this evening.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015/
DISCUSSION...As of 4:30 AM CDT Monday...Complicated forecast for
this morning into the early aftn. Water vapor imagery is indc a
potent shortwave in Northern Chihuahua rounding the base of the
trough in the southern Rockies. IR imagery is indc a baroclinic
leaf structure with rapidly cooling cloud tops in Southwest TX.
Convection has developed in the Plains north and east of the Davis
Mtns and in the Western and Southern Permian Basin. While
initially having a hard time getting going has now started to
intensify. Even though there is decent low level CIN...latest
Mesoscale Analysis is indc good MLCAPE and very steep mid level
lapse rates of 8C/KM. KMAF VAD Profile is indc a 40+ kt low level
southerly jet as well. The HRRR has been very consistent in
developing strong convection and moving it into the Permian Basin
and the Low Rolling Plains this morning. The HRRR is indc very
impressive rain rates along with training cells. SPC has the
Permian Basin and Low Rolling Plains in a slight risk with the
main severe threat large hail. This will continue to be monitored
thru the morning hours.
After passage of the shortwave low amplitude ridging will move
over the Southern Plains. This will bring dry weather tonight
thru Tuesday night. With H85 temps increasing along with downslope
low level winds temps should reach into the 90s across the Plains
with 80s in the mtns.
Yet another mid/upper low...currently near 28/143...will open into
a trough and will move in the subtropical jet to near northern
Baja by Wed morning. This will turn the mid/upper flow to
southwest and will allow low level moisture to stream into the CWA
from the Gulf of Mexico. Impulses moving in the flow aloft...
combined with the low level moist flow out of the Gulf of Mexico
will bring at least a chance of convection across most of the CWA
from Wednesday right thru next weekend as our wet pattern
continues.
Strobin
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
84/33
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
622 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop and
move over West Central Texas TAF sites this morning. The best
potential is over KABI 15-18Z. Have VCTS at most sites this
morning...with KABI down to 2 miles in moderate rain 15-18Z. MVFR
stratus should rise to VFR at most sites by 18Z, persisting until
21Z at KABI. MVFR stratus otherwise returns after 6Z tonight from
south to north.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight )
..Heavy rainfall and severe storms possible today beginning early
this morning...
A strong upper trough will pass trough West Central Texas this
morning, with strong lift associated with it. The atmosphere was
already unstable with SPC RAP most unstable CAPES of 2000-3000 J/KG.
0-6KM bulk shears were 40-50 KTS. Large hail and damaging winds are
possible, even the potential for a tornado. The main threat, however
will be locally heavy rainfall of 1 to 3 inches, as precipitable
water increases to 1.0-1.5 inches. Heavy rainfall on already
saturated soils will have the potential for flash flooding. A flash
flood watch is in effect through 4 PM CDT.
Most of the high resolution models develop a band of thunderstorms
over I-20 corridor...from Sterling City to Brownwood this morning,
mainly after 7 AM. Another second area of storms may develop east
off the mountains of Mexico... possibly affecting the Junction to
Mason to San Saba areas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may
continue in the Big Country in the afternoon with more isolated
storms farther south. While the Big Country and southeast sections
will likely have highest potential for thunderstorms, just about
anywhere in West Central Texas will be at risk for severe storms
today with the strong instabilities present.
Kept a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over eastern
sections tonight. Most of this will be in the evening hours.
04
LONG TERM...
(Tuesday-Wednesday)
Dryline thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday and Wednesday during
the late afternoon and evening as temperatures climb into the 90s.
Moderate to high CAPE values and a low shear storm environment will
provide the threat for isolated strong updrafts that could result in
a few storms producing large hail and damaging winds.
(Thursday-Friday)
As a broad upper level trough of low pressure moves into Northern
Mexico, it will result in dryline afternoon and evening
thunderstorms each day. A cold front moving south through the
Central Plains could send an outflow boundary into West Central
Texas on Friday, providing another focus for thunderstorm development.
Max temperatures will be a little lower because of more cloud cover.
(Saturday-Sunday)
The previously mentioned cold front meandering across the region could
bring another threat for storms over the weekend with temperatures
in the lower 80s.
26
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 80 63 90 69 89 / 70 10 20 10 20
San Angelo 85 63 93 69 91 / 50 10 20 10 20
Junction 84 65 91 70 89 / 70 20 20 10 20
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 4 PM CDT this afternoon FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...
Crockett...Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...Mason...
McCulloch...Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Schleicher...
Shackelford...Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom
Green.
&&
$$
99/99/04
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
403 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015
PER WATER VAPOR/RADAR TRENDS...THE UPPER LOW CENTER HAS MOVED FROM
NORTHERN TO NORTHEAST CO IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. MORE INTENSE CONVECTION
ACCOMPANIED THE MAIN VORTICITY CENTER MOVING INTO CENTRAL KS. REGIONAL
RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS ROTATING CYCLONICALLY
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. RAINFALL THUS FAR HAS BEEN LIGHT TO MODERATE
INTENSITY. SURFACE FEATURES INCLUDED A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WESTWARD TO A LOW CENTER OVER WEST CENTRAL NE
THEN SOUTH INTO WEST TX. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDED NORTHWEST
FROM THE LOW INTO EAST CENTRAL WY.
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL SLOWLY LIFT EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS
TOWARD THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY...WITH A TRANSITORY LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT RANGE AND HIGH PLAINS.
MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH COOL
AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AVERAGE
5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE LATER THIS
EVENING AND FOCUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT...UPSLOPE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL LATE
SPRINGTIME PATTERN OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...INCREASING LOW LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW AND MORE
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL FAVOR STRONGER CONVECTION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FORECASTS A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
FOR THE NE PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY WARM TO SEASONAL
NORMALS WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015
WET WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE LONG TERM...AT LEAST THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.
STARTING OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON AN
ALMOST DAILY BASIS THAT WILL KICK OFF CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
UPPER TROUGH FINALLY LOOKS TO MOVE EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
SATURDAY. MOST OF THE CWFA SHOULD BE DRY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THERE COULD BE SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE TO MAYBE CHEYENNE. NICE DAY IN STORE FOR SUNDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015
KEPT TREND OF DROPPING VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS INTO IFR CATEGORY
FOR CHADRON...ALLIANCE AND SIDNEY WHERE WRAP AROUND LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY LIGHT RAINS ARE INDICATED TO CONTINUE IN THE HRRR AND NAM
THROUGH MORNING...WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DROPPING INTO MVFR
AT SCOTTSBLUFF...CHEYENNE...LARAMIE AND RAWLINS THROUGH MORNING.
FOR CHEYENNE...HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON BATCH OF RAIN
MOVING SOUTHWEST OUT OF THE SCOTTSBLUFF AREA...MOVING IT TO NEAR
CHEYENNE BY DAYBREAK...SO AROUND 10Z WE BROUGHT IN SOME LIGHT RAIN
FOR CHEYENNE BUT DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO IFR ON CEILINGS
OR VISIBILITIES AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...AS THE LOW CLOUDS START
TO SHOW SOME BREAKS BY EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY WE EXPECT TO SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND EITHER HAVE VICINITY
THUNDER OR CARRIED THUNDER FOR ALL SITES IN THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS
INTO EARLY EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 155 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015
NON-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DUE TO PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE FROM RECENT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE UPPER
LOW SLOWLY EXITING THE REGION TODAY...THERE WILL STILL BE GOOD
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WARMER AND SLIGHTLY
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND LAST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. HOWEVER...A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES
AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE WILL RESULT IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015
RECENTLY UPDATED THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE LARAMIE RIVER NEAR FORT
LARAMIE IN GOSHEN COUNTY WY. RUNOFF AND ADDITIONAL WATER RELEASES
FROM THE GRAYROCKS RESERVOIR UPSTREAM PUSHED THE STAGE TO MODERATE
SEVERITY AT 8.2 FEET. THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO CREST AT 8.3 FEET
THIS MORNING. HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE AT LARAMIE THIS WEEK
AS THE RIVER FLUCTUATES BETWEEN 7.5 AND 7.7 FEET.
FORECAST RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WILL RANGE FROM LESS THAN A 0.25 INCH ALONG AND WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE TO AS MUCH AS 0.75 INCH OVER WESTERN NE PANHANDLE.
LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SLOWER MOVING THUNDERSTORMS.
MORE SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL RESUME TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW EXITS THE REGION.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MAJ
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...MAJ
HYDROLOGY...MAJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
1250 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS ARKANSAS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF TEXAS...SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FORM. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE
EVENING AND SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MVFR THIS EVENING AND WILL AT TIMES BE IFR.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/
AVIATION...25/12Z TAF CYCLE
EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS WL PERSIST THIS MRNG...RESULTING IN MVFR/OCNL
IFR CIGS ACRS THE FA. INCRSG SLY WINDS BY MIDDAY WL ALLOW FOR A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDS THIS AFTN. WL SEE A LULL IN RAIN
CHCS INTO EARLY THIS AFTN. SCTD CONVECTION WL THEN BEGIN TO DVLP...
WITH VCTS INCLUDED. ANY ORGANIZED AREA OF SHRA/TSRA WL AFFECT THE
AREA FM THE W LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY TNGT. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDS
WITH THIS SYS...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. /44/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 503 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
A VERY TRICKY FORECAST WITH HIGH BUST POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY IN
REGARDS TO THE QPF. MOST MODELS HAVE SCALED BACK ON QPF EXPECTED
TONIGHT IN THE NATURAL STATE...HOWEVER THEY ALL DO HAVE HEAVY RAIN
FORECAST OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME TONIGHT. CONSIDERING THIS...DO
STILL FEEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS WARRANTED.
TODAY...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE SEEN AROUND THE STATE THIS MORNING
WITH SOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SEEN. MAY EVEN SEE A BIT OF
SUN TODAY. WITH THAT WILL SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
80S. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR CAPE VALUES TO
INCREASE TO WELL OVER 1000 J/KG...0-1 SRH WILL INCREASE TO OVER
100 TO 150 M^2/S^2. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH BEST
CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN AND SW ARKANSAS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
MODELS DO CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND THE
STATE THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...THE HRRR AND WRF BOTH HINT AT A
SIMILAR SOLUTION WITH TWO COMPLEXES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND EAST CENTRAL TEXAS. THE ECMWF
MOST CLOSELY RESEMBLES THIS SOLUTION...SO FOR QPF WENT WITH A
ECMWF/SREF BLEND. THIS RESULTED IN QPF AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 4 INCH
RANGE AROUND THE STATE...WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS ACROSS SW ARKANSAS.
THE GFS AND GEM ARE BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AMOUNTS IN
THE STATE...AND SOME OF THE MEMBERS OF THE SREF PLUMES DO HINT AT
SOME HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WHICH CONTINUES TO LEAD TO THE
UNCERTAINTY. BUT AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK THAT
THE 00Z TO 06Z TIMEFRAME WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL...AND
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY.
BEYOND THIS TIMEFRAME...THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES SOMEWHAT LESS
AMPLIFIED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINING AT THE SURFACE. AS A
RESULT...CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
AT...OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
RESIDUAL MOISTURE WL RMN ABUNDANT ACRS THE REGION THRU THE PD. A
WEAK UPR LVL TROF WL SLOLY APCH THE REGION FM THE W LATER NEXT
WEEK...WITH SCTD CONVECTION MENTIONED EACH DAY. RAIN CHCS WL ALSO BE
ENHANCED LATE IN THE PD BY A WEAK CDFNT THAT WL WORK INTO AR. DID
NOT STRAY TOO FAR FM MOS TEMPS...WHICH LINE UP RATHER WELL WITH
CURRENT FCST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 65 80 66 82 / 80 70 20 40
CAMDEN AR 68 85 69 87 / 90 50 30 40
HARRISON AR 62 80 63 81 / 80 30 40 40
HOT SPRINGS AR 67 83 69 85 / 90 40 40 40
LITTLE ROCK AR 66 84 68 86 / 90 50 30 40
MONTICELLO AR 68 83 68 86 / 90 80 30 40
MOUNT IDA AR 64 82 67 84 / 90 40 40 40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 63 81 64 83 / 80 50 30 40
NEWPORT AR 67 80 67 83 / 80 80 20 40
PINE BLUFF AR 68 82 68 85 / 90 60 30 40
RUSSELLVILLE AR 65 83 66 85 / 80 40 40 40
SEARCY AR 65 81 65 84 / 80 60 30 40
STUTTGART AR 66 83 68 84 / 80 70 30 40
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
YELL.
&&
$$
AVIATION...51
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
143 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES BECOMING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
OTHERWISE...THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY...EXCEPT OVER THE SIERRA
NEVADA WHERE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS PRESENT OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. 500 MB HEIGHTS HAVE RISEN
SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND
ACROSS THE REGION...READINGS GENERALLY BETWEEN 2 AND 8 DEGREES
WARMER COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY. AS OF 1 PM...TEMPERATURES
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND IN THE DESERT WERE IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S...THE FOOTHILLS RANGED FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80...WITH
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM ANOTHER 5 OR SO DEGREES BEFORE
SUNSET AND WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF MAY.
IN THE PAST HOUR...SHOWERS BEGAN TO FORM ALONG THE SIERRA CREST IN
MARIPOSA...MADERA...AND FRESNO COUNTIES...WITH NO LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY AS OF YET. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD GRIP ON THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND IT SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING SOUTH INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE HRRR...HIGH RES
ARW...AND NMM ALL INDICATE THAT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF TULARE
COUNTY SHOULD SEE THE BULK OF ACTIVITY GENERALLY BETWEEN 21Z AND
00Z. ABUNDANT INSTABILITY WAS OBSERVED ON THE LAPS 20Z CAPE
ANALYSIS...GENERALLY BETWEEN 300 AND 600 J/KG...WITH ISOLATED
AREAS JUST OVER 800 J/KG. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS
IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SIERRA CREST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH MAINLY UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA. 500 MB
HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE EACH DAY...RESULTING IN A
SUBTLE WARMING TREND...GENERALLY BETWEEN 2 AND 4 DEGREES EACH
DAY. SIERRA NEVADA SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COASTLINE AND
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST TOWARD CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MAKING THESE TWO DAYS
THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK. AS OF NOW...THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY...WITH SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND DESERT
LOCATIONS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. A FEW SPOTS MAY EVEN
HIT THE CENTURY MARK. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE BETWEEN 8 AN 12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF MAY. ON A SIDE NOTE...IF
BAKERSFIELD AND FRESNO DO NOT HIT 100 DEGREES ON SATURDAY...THIS
WILL BE THE FIRST TIME BOTH CITIES HAVE NOT WARMED TO 100 DEGREES
IN THE MONTH OF MAY SINCE 2012.
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND A COOLING
TREND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURING IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA AND CONTINUING
THROUGH 03Z TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 05-25 102:1890 59:1906 68:2014 42:1980
KFAT 05-26 103:1974 66:1946 68:2014 40:1953
KFAT 05-27 104:1974 55:1971 69:1896 46:1998
KBFL 05-25 106:1982 58:2008 77:1982 39:1893
KBFL 05-26 107:1951 68:1998 72:1979 40:1918
KBFL 05-27 106:1974 66:1971 75:1974 42:1917
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...MOLINA
SYNOPSIS...WP
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1244 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1004 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
A FEW SHOWERS LINGER EAST OF I-55...BUT THESE WILL BE EXITING OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS. HAVE KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POP`S EAST OF I-57
INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY BE DRY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY ALREADY
NORTHWEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER...AND A LARGER HOLE IN THE CLOUDS
OVER NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY AFTERNOON PER THE RAP MODEL...ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHEAST
CWA WILL LIKELY SEE MORE PERSISTENT CLOUDS. HAVE HAD SOME GUSTS
40-45 MPH AROUND DECATUR AND CHAMPAIGN ON THE LATEST OBS...BUT THE
HRRR MODEL SHOWS THESE HIGH WINDS SHIFTING INTO INDIANA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
LOW PRESSURE CENTER STILL WELL OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING...AND A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE IL/WI BORDER THIS
MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER STILL IN THE
REGION, BUT MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS IN THE SOUTHEAST AS WELL AS THE
NW. ILX SITUATED IN A GAP AS THE MAJORITY OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO LIFT NORTH AND NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. MODELS PRETTY CONSISTENT
WITH THE MOVING OUT OF THE SYSTEM, WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLY AT LEAST THROUGH MIDDAY. ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT WITH THE INCREASING INSTABILITY AFTER SUNRISE...BUT MAJORITY OF
THE ACTIVITY SCOURS OUT IN ALL OF THE MODELS SHORTLY AFTER MIDDAY.
LINGERED SOME SLIGHT CHANCES AFTER 18Z TO COVER AT LEAST THE
POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY WITH ANY REMNANT MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES.
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY STILL WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD IT GET THE
CHANCE TO RECOVER/RESTRATIFY. HOWEVER, A SMALL AREA OF MIDLEVEL
RIDGING BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING MAY GIVE US ENOUGH
SUBSIDENCE TO COUNTER THE EFFECTS...SO HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT WITH THE
END OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE EARLY EVENING AND DROPPED THE POPS
BACK DOWN BEFORE 06Z. EITHER WAY...WINDS ALOFT WITH THE PASSING OF
THE SHORTWAVE AND DAYTIME MIXING WILL RESULT IN SOME GUSTY WINDS
TODAY...GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH BY MID DAY AND SLOWLY BACKING OFF AS
THE LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
FORECAST REMAINS WARM AND MUGGY WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT. REGION DOMINATED BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE UPPER TROF IN THE SW
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PATTERN
MID WEEK IS ONLY TEMPORARY AS TEMPS REMAIN WARM WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE ONLY REINFORCED BY PERIODIC SHOWERS ENHANCING THE BOUNDARY
LAYER RH. YET ANOTHER SURFACE LOW LIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST MOVING
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON TUESDAY. MORE SHOWERS
ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE MUGGY AIRMASS. FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WEAK AT BEST AND WILL ONLY SEE A BRIEF
SFC WIND SHIFT TO MORE WESTERLY FROM SOUTHERLY FOR WED AND WED NIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF PATTERN SHIFT ALOFT. CHANGE IS ONLY
TEMPORARY AS SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS REESTABLISH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY SHIFTS TO WEAK FLOW OVERALL
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND SETTING UP CHANCES FOR PERIODIC DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION YET AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIFTING AND ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR BY
18-19Z. THE STRONGEST OF THE SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE SHIFTED AWAY
FROM KCMI...BUT WINDS THERE SHOULD STILL GUST TO AROUND 30 KNOTS
OR SO FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL HAVE
GUSTS MORE IN THE 25 KNOT RANGE...BUT THESE SHOULD SUBSIDE TOWARD
00Z. NEXT PERIOD FOR CONVECTIVE CONCERN APPEARS TO START AROUND
08-09Z WITH STORMS TRACKING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH-RESOLUTION
MODELS SUGGEST SOME BREAKS IN BETWEEN STORMS TUESDAY MORNING...SO
WILL GO WITH VCTS MENTION LATE IN THE PERIOD. TAIL END OF THE RAP
MODEL SUGGESTS SOME MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT IN
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND BUILDING NORTHWARD...AND HAVE ADDED THESE
FOR KBMI/KDEC/KCMI.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEELHART
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...GEELHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
253 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
SHORT TERM/HI-RES MODELS SUPPORT THREE AREAS OF CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH IMPACTS ON THE FORECAST AREA AND SEEM
REASONABLE GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL INSTABILITY/FORCING/FOCUSING
MECHANISMS. DIURNAL HEATING HAS RESULTED IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH MLCAPES OVER 3000 J/KG. THIS HAS
SUPPORTED RECENT CONVECTION JUST SOUTHWEST OF KICT. THE RAP SHOWED
THIS WELL IN LATEST RUNS. THE HRRR AND RAP ALSO DEVELOP ANOTHER AREA
OF CONVECTION JUST AFTER 00Z SOUTH OF SOUTHWARD SAGGING SURFACE FRONT
MOVING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING WHERE RETURN MOISTURE FLUX
SHOULD RESULT IN MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG FOR A BRIEF TIME.
THIRD AREA IS EXPECTED ON NORTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER SOUTHERN
PLAINS PV ANOMALY WHICH WILL SWEEP NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DESPITE MODEST DEEP LAYER
SHEAR THE PROGGED INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE DEEP
CONVECTION WILL LEND TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...THE OVERALL
COVERAGE/DURATION OF THE EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO NECESSITATE A
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. AS THE MAIN UPPER TROF ROTATES NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING TUESDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT
WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS MAY SUPPORT RENEWED DIURNAL CONVECTION
ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY COULD FESTER INTO PART OF TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN KANSAS. THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY LOOKS TO LINGER
ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO WEDNESDAY OR POSSIBLY MIGRATE NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN
STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
DESPITE SOME WEAK CAPPING POTENTIAL...CONDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE MAINTAINED ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS.
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION WEDNESDAY EVENING
AND A BETTER LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE IMPINGING INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SUPPORT BETTER CHANCES/HIGHER POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE GOING FORECAST.
THURSDAY COULD BE A PERIODICALLY WET/STORMY DAY WITH A COUPLE OF
MIGRATORY SHORTWAVES ALOFT AND CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT
SUPPORTING CONVECTION.
DARMOFAL
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
THE PINNACLE OF THE NEXT ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH DIMINISHING
CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND HOPEFULLY A DRY PERIOD BY SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS SCENARIO IS GENERALLY SUPPORTED IN THE GFS
AND ECMWF...THOUGH THE GFS MAINTAINS A STRONGER UPPER TROF ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY. A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS
THE HIGHER CONVECTIVE CHANCES/MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.
KED
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH HAS
LED TO SOME SCATTERED MVFR CIGS LINGERING OR SLOW TO BURN OFF ACROSS
CENTRAL KS. SO WILL KEEP SOME 2500 FOOT AGL CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL KS
FOR NOW.
THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR TSRA ACROSS THE AREA LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN
PLACE. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FOR THE EVENING
HOURS AS HEATING INCREASES. HARD TO PINPOINT EXACT LOCATION OF
GREATEST TSRA COVERAGE...SO PREFER TO GO WITH VCTS FOR ALL LOCATIONS
THIS EVENING. EXPECT MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO DIMINISH LATE THIS
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING
HIGH...EXPECT TO SEE MVFR CIGS REDEVELOP FOR MOST LOCATIONS EARLY
TUE MORNING.
KETCHAM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 60 79 61 82 / 30 20 30 30
HUTCHINSON 59 79 60 82 / 30 20 30 30
NEWTON 60 78 60 80 / 30 20 30 30
ELDORADO 60 79 61 82 / 40 20 30 30
WINFIELD-KWLD 60 80 61 82 / 30 20 40 30
RUSSELL 56 78 58 82 / 40 10 20 30
GREAT BEND 57 78 58 81 / 40 10 20 30
SALINA 60 80 59 82 / 40 10 20 20
MCPHERSON 60 79 59 81 / 40 20 20 20
COFFEYVILLE 62 80 62 82 / 50 20 40 30
CHANUTE 62 79 62 82 / 50 20 40 30
IOLA 62 79 62 81 / 50 20 30 30
PARSONS-KPPF 62 80 62 82 / 50 20 40 30
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1251 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
Upper low over the Central Rockies continues to eject smaller pieces
of shortwave energy into Kansas, with one moving out of the forecast
area while the next is on approach. Steepening of lapse rates with
the incoming wave is providing enough instability for thunder to
develop, and model soundings indicate instability will continue to
be on the increase, along with an EML that moves into Eastern
Kansas. Also of influence will be the convective complex out in
west central Kansas moving eastward at this hour. The northern side
of this feature appears to have gust front out ahead of the
convection while the southern side still is along or just behind the
gust front. Latest HRRR dissipates this feature considerably through
the early morning hours, and at this time have opted to carry
diminishing precip chances through the morning to account for this
feature. The Cottonwood, Neosho, and Marias des Cygnes rivers
continue to be in flood, but at this time don`t see lingering heavy
rainfall and will cancel the flash flood watch. Afternoon hours
appear to be a transition period as EML moves in and perhaps
subsidence behind leading shortwave aid in clearing out earlier
convection, a reset for activity in the late afternoon and evening
hours.
Larger scale upper trof moves eastward late this afternoon and
evening, bring surface low and frontal boundary into north central
Kansas. Lapse rates continue to steepen along this boundary, with
NAM12 indicating 2500J/kg of surface based CAPE by 23z near
Concordia, and higher values toward Manhattan, although think this
is somewhat overdone by high dewpoint bias in that area. 0-1km shear
values are in the 10-20kt range, with 0-3km helicity near 150m/s2.
0-6km bulk shear values are less robust, around 25kts, with wind
speeds aloft weaker and more unidirectional making for weaker
profiles. Still enough ingredients to make severe hail and wind of
concern with storms that develop, along with potential for isolated
tornadoes, and has led to an outlook from SPC for a slight risk
across mainly the northwest half of our area. Despite rain chances
early and late, high temperatures still expected to make it back
into the upper 70s. As upper system moves eastward late evening and
overnight, have continued thunderstorm chances across the area, some
of which may continue to be strong to severe.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
By Tuesday morning the main shortwave trough should be lifting into
the upper Midwest, although there are some hints of some weak energy
hanging back across the central and southern plains. As this energy
potentially moves over the region a few of the models are generating
light QPF Tuesday afternoon and overnight with the lack of CIN, but
there is not much focus for lift. On Wednesday after some slight
mid level ridging moves east of the Rockies the lee side trough
develops and return flow becomes better established. Any
thunderstorm complexes that develop over the high plains have a
chance of moving eastward into the forecast area Wednesday through
Thursday night. Then a stronger shortwave drops out of the pacific
northwest into the central Rockies Thursday. As it lifts over the
plains on Friday and Saturday the chances for precip increases,
which has been a consistent solution for the past few days, so
will continue with the likely pops. The GFS is more aggressive
with tracking a decent surface low pressure over eastern KS, while
the ECMWF just brings a robust front through. Either way another
shot of widespread measurable rain looks to be on track for early
next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
This forecast period is another tricky setup. Cloud cover should
help limit convection, however, there is a good likelihood that
some convection does develop mainly from Central KS into
northeastern KS later this afternoon. This could impact the
terminals but left VCTS for now. Any activity should end shortly
after sunset this evening. In the meantime, good confidence that
winds will continue out of the South and remain gusty as there has
been some decent mixing taking place. The second half of the TAF
period should be more settled, but still a minor chance of morning
storms perhaps over North central KS into NE.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Drake
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
304 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
BEST WARMING THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN TO THE WEST OF THE CIRRUS
SHIELD OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. A LAPS SOUNDING FROM NEAR VAN
BUREN MISSOURI INDICATES THAT THERE IS VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS...AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS RATHER LACKING AS WELL.
THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GET DEEP CONVECTION...BUT
FIGURE THAT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN FOR LONG. WILL KEEP AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGHOUT THE AREA THROUGH 00Z...BUT
FIGURE MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY.
ALL EYES ARE ON THE MASSIVE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX RAKING ACROSS TEXAS
AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. THE NMM AND ARW WRF BOTH
WIPE IT OUT AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND THE
LATEST HRRR APPEARS TO BE TRENDING THAT WAY TOO. LIKE WPC QPF AND
FOLLOWED IT CLOSELY THROUGH TUESDAY. NOT SURE ABOUT THE LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. BOTTOM-LINE IS THAT THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT IS RATHER
LOW.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CONVECTION BEGIN TO INCREASE AS THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY
AROUND MIDDAY TUESDAY. FIGURE THAT THE SEVERE THREAT TUESDAY WILL
BE GREATEST TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA.
REALLY FEEL THAT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE
DRY...BUT HAVE CHANCY POPS IN THERE ANYWAY. A WEAK MID/UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY 12Z WEDNESDAY
AND THIS MAY BE ABLE TO TOUCH OFF SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON...AS THIS TROUGH MOVES BY. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN HITTING THIS DEVELOPMENT CONSISTENTLY FOR AT
LEAST 3 DAYS NOW...SO AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SEEMS
LIKE A GOOD BET AT THIS TIME. THE MODELS DEVELOP THAT ACTIVITY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IN THE EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUD COVER. HELD TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FOR HIGHS TUESDAY...WITH
LITTLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED. WEDNESDAY MAY SEE HIGHS BACK UP IN THE
80S...ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTION CAN HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY..THE UPPER FLOW WEAKENS AND UPPER HEIGHTS
SLOWLY RISE AS A RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE HOWEVER TO WARRANT SOME LOW CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS WE REMAIN IN A WARM...MOIST...AND UNCAPPED
ENVIRONMENT.
SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND IT WILL MOVE IN OUR DIRECTION FOR THE WEEKEND. HOW EXACTLY THIS
SFC LOW AND FRONT WILL EVOLVE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK IS STILL IN QUESTION. HOWEVER...THIS DOES APPEAR TO BE OUR
BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. THEREFORE...WILL
ADVERTISE HIGHEST POPS DURING THESE PERIODS.
IT WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND HUMID...AS HIGHS IN THE
FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE IN THE MID 80S...DROPPING DOWN
INTO THE LOW 80S WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP AROUND OVER THE WEEKEND.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE RATHER HIGH AS WELL...WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S...MAKING IT FEEL PRETTY STICKY OUTSIDE WITH HEAT INDEX
READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S IN MANY LOCATIONS EARLY ON IN THE
EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
AS SHOWERS EXIT W KY THIS AFTERNOON CIGS BECOME VFR AND S WINDS
REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS NEAR KEVV/KOWB. S WINDS AOB 10
KTS TONIGHT WITH VFR CIGS/VSBYS. ON TUES AM CIGS/VISBYS BECOME
MVFR AND S WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS...AS SHOWERS AND STORMS
ENTER FROM THE WEST AND PASS THROUGH DURING THE DAY.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...BP2
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
313 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015
ONCE AGAIN...HAVE MAINLY UPDATED TO BLEND OBS INTO THE FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 926 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015
UPDATED SKY CONDITION TO BLEND MORNING SATELLITE OBS INTO THE
DAYTIME FORECAST...BUT WITH LITTLE SUBSTANTIVE CHANGE. OTHER
FORECAST ELEMENTS WERE STILL IN GOOD SHAPE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015
THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK SO HAVE JUST UPDATED THE
SKY/T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
KENTUCKY BETWEEN BROAD LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS AND HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE INVERSION IN PLACE OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY AND NATURE OF THE TERRAIN IS KEEPING THE WINDS
LIGHT TO CALM IN MOST PLACES. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SMATTERING OF
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS...HAS LED TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLITS ACROSS
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. READINGS CURRENTLY VARY FROM THE MID 50S
IN THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON THE
RIDGES AND IN MORE OPEN LOCATIONS. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE IN THESE
SITUATIONS...EKQ SHOWS THE RESULTS OF A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
WITH SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 17 KTS AND TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S AT
LAST OBSERVATION. WHILE DEW POINTS HAVE COME UP DURING THE PAST
24 HOURS THEY ARE STILL ON THE RELATIVELY DRY SIDE RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 50S IN THE FAR EAST AND ON RIDGETOPS TO THE MID 50S IN
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AND VALLEY LOCATIONS.
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL
DEPICT A SHARP RIDGE PUSHED FURTHER EAST FROM THE AREA IN THE
FACE OF A BROAD AND OPENING TROUGH CROSSING THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TODAY. A COUPLE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH
THE REGION JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF EAST KENTUCKY. THE FIRST OF
THESE GOES BY FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN FURTHER HEIGHT FALLS. AFTER A QUIET NIGHT...A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WAVE PASSES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE BODILY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL TROUGH/S
REMNANT CORE. THIS WILL BRING A DECENT MID LEVEL WIND FIELD
THROUGH THE AREA AS IT MOVES BY AND LIKELY FUEL STRONGER AND
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE STATE WHEN COMBINED WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE. HAVE FOLLOWED THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND NAM12 MOST CLOSELY
GIVEN THE OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT AND SMALLER SCALE NATURE OF THE
DETERMINANT FEATURES.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL START OFF QUIET ENOUGH FOR THIS HOLIDAY...
AND FOLLOWING SEVERAL DAYS OF NEAR PERFECT WX...BUT WILL LIKELY
TURN CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE BY MIDDAY STARTING IN THE WESTERN PARTS
OF THE CWA AND PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE EARLIER
HRRR RUNS AND HINTS WITHIN THE NAM12 SUGGESTED A POSSIBILITY OF A
STRAY SHOWER AROUND EAST KENTUCKY BEFORE 15Z IN ADVANCE OF THE
MAIN AREA BOTH MODELS DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE
OVERDONE...AND NOW DISCOUNTED BY THE LATEST HRRR...GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE
STATE. NEVERTHELESS...THEY DO AGREE ON A FAIRLY ACTIVE AFTERNOON
FOR MOST OF THE AREA AS THE LEAD MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE INITIATES
CONVECTION EARLY ON TO THE WEST AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
PROGRESSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO DO THE REST. THE
ACTIVITY WILL WANE EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE TIME OF TYPICAL CONVECTIVE MINIMUM.
RENEWAL OF ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY AS THE NEXT WAVE
BRUSHES BY ALOFT WITH A BETTER WIND FIELD AND AS MUCH...OR
POTENTIALLY MORE...INSTABILITY IN PLACE. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR
ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS AND THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL REST ON PARTIAL CLEARING AND THE ABILITY OF THE AIR MASS
OVER EKY TO OVERCOME ANY EARLIER STABILIZING EFFECTS OF
CONVECTION/DEBRIS FROM THAT MORNING/S LIMITED CONVECTION. WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS...AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
SPC OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...WILL HIGHLIGHT CONCERNS IN THE HWO...A
WEB HEADLINE...AND A HEADS UP EMAIL TO OUR PARTNERS. THIS SHOULD
ENSURE THAT DECISION MAKERS ARE NOT CAUGHT UNAWARE OF THE STORM
POTENTIAL COMING OFF A LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD AND WIND
GRIDS TODAY BEFORE WRAPPING UP WITH THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER FOR
TONIGHT MADE ONLY MINOR TERRAIN BASED CHANGES TO THE LOW
TEMPERATURES. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP A LITTLE HIGHER THAN EVEN THE
WETTER MAV MOS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. FOLLOWING THAT...THE POPS WERE
MOST SIMILAR TO THE LOWER MET NUMBERS TONIGHT AND IN LINE WITH A
BLEND OF THE FAIRLY HIGH GUIDANCE TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015
MOST OF THE CONUS WILL FEATURE A LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN...AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING /CURRENTLY EXITING EASTERN KY/ REACHES THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST OFF THE
COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. MEANWHILE...MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
LOWS AND SHORTWAVES MOVE IN FROM THE PACIFIC COAST AND TRAVERSE THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN EASTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS. KY WILL GENERALLY FIND
ITSELF ON THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THIS TROUGHING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING KEEPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEIGHTS JUST TO OUR EAST. AS
SUCH...EXPECT MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES TO TRAVERSE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
AND MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH KY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A VERY ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH EACH WAVE BRINGING A
RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE REGION.
EACH DAY...EXPECT SOME DEGREE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH BEST ACTIVITY AND COVERAGE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING HELPING TO
PROMOTE BETTER INSTABILITY AND CAPE VALUES IN THE 2 TO 4K J/KG
RANGE. AND WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...EXPECT TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80 RANGE
WITH DECENT HUMIDITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PWAT VALUES THROUGH
THE PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO BE 1.5 INCHES OR HIGHER EACH DAY...SO ANY
OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY GENERATE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THAT BEING SAID...OTHER THAN
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE
LIGHT...SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY NOT PRODUCE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF HIGH WIND GUSTS UNLESS MESOSCALE DRIVEN. AND LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING GOOD SATURATION THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN...LEAVING LITTLE DRYING ALOFT FOR LARGE HAIL DEVELOPMENT.
INSTEAD...EXPECT FREQUENT LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. SW WINDS WERE
GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64. SHOWERS
WERE PRESENT JUST TO THE WEST OVER CENTRAL KY. THE PRECIP WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD...WITH EASTERN KENTUCKY EXPECTING MVFR IN
SHOWERS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED IFR IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THE WIND SHOULD
DIMINISH A BIT TOWARD EVENING. AS TEMPERATURES WARM UP ON
TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START TO REDEVELOP
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
231 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015
ONCE AGAIN...HAVE MAINLY UPDATED TO BLEND OBS INTO THE FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 926 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015
UPDATED SKY CONDITION TO BLEND MORNING SATELLITE OBS INTO THE
DAYTIME FORECAST...BUT WITH LITTLE SUBSTANTIVE CHANGE. OTHER
FORECAST ELEMENTS WERE STILL IN GOOD SHAPE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015
THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK SO HAVE JUST UPDATED THE
SKY/T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
KENTUCKY BETWEEN BROAD LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS AND HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE INVERSION IN PLACE OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY AND NATURE OF THE TERRAIN IS KEEPING THE WINDS
LIGHT TO CALM IN MOST PLACES. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SMATTERING OF
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS...HAS LED TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLITS ACROSS
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. READINGS CURRENTLY VARY FROM THE MID 50S
IN THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON THE
RIDGES AND IN MORE OPEN LOCATIONS. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE IN THESE
SITUATIONS...EKQ SHOWS THE RESULTS OF A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
WITH SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 17 KTS AND TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S AT
LAST OBSERVATION. WHILE DEW POINTS HAVE COME UP DURING THE PAST
24 HOURS THEY ARE STILL ON THE RELATIVELY DRY SIDE RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 50S IN THE FAR EAST AND ON RIDGETOPS TO THE MID 50S IN
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AND VALLEY LOCATIONS.
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL
DEPICT A SHARP RIDGE PUSHED FURTHER EAST FROM THE AREA IN THE
FACE OF A BROAD AND OPENING TROUGH CROSSING THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TODAY. A COUPLE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH
THE REGION JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF EAST KENTUCKY. THE FIRST OF
THESE GOES BY FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN FURTHER HEIGHT FALLS. AFTER A QUIET NIGHT...A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WAVE PASSES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE BODILY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL TROUGH/S
REMNANT CORE. THIS WILL BRING A DECENT MID LEVEL WIND FIELD
THROUGH THE AREA AS IT MOVES BY AND LIKELY FUEL STRONGER AND
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE STATE WHEN COMBINED WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE. HAVE FOLLOWED THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND NAM12 MOST CLOSELY
GIVEN THE OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT AND SMALLER SCALE NATURE OF THE
DETERMINANT FEATURES.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL START OFF QUIET ENOUGH FOR THIS HOLIDAY...
AND FOLLOWING SEVERAL DAYS OF NEAR PERFECT WX...BUT WILL LIKELY
TURN CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE BY MIDDAY STARTING IN THE WESTERN PARTS
OF THE CWA AND PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE EARLIER
HRRR RUNS AND HINTS WITHIN THE NAM12 SUGGESTED A POSSIBILITY OF A
STRAY SHOWER AROUND EAST KENTUCKY BEFORE 15Z IN ADVANCE OF THE
MAIN AREA BOTH MODELS DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE
OVERDONE...AND NOW DISCOUNTED BY THE LATEST HRRR...GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE
STATE. NEVERTHELESS...THEY DO AGREE ON A FAIRLY ACTIVE AFTERNOON
FOR MOST OF THE AREA AS THE LEAD MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE INITIATES
CONVECTION EARLY ON TO THE WEST AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
PROGRESSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO DO THE REST. THE
ACTIVITY WILL WANE EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE TIME OF TYPICAL CONVECTIVE MINIMUM.
RENEWAL OF ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY AS THE NEXT WAVE
BRUSHES BY ALOFT WITH A BETTER WIND FIELD AND AS MUCH...OR
POTENTIALLY MORE...INSTABILITY IN PLACE. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR
ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS AND THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL REST ON PARTIAL CLEARING AND THE ABILITY OF THE AIR MASS
OVER EKY TO OVERCOME ANY EARLIER STABILIZING EFFECTS OF
CONVECTION/DEBRIS FROM THAT MORNING/S LIMITED CONVECTION. WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS...AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
SPC OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...WILL HIGHLIGHT CONCERNS IN THE HWO...A
WEB HEADLINE...AND A HEADS UP EMAIL TO OUR PARTNERS. THIS SHOULD
ENSURE THAT DECISION MAKERS ARE NOT CAUGHT UNAWARE OF THE STORM
POTENTIAL COMING OFF A LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD AND WIND
GRIDS TODAY BEFORE WRAPPING UP WITH THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER FOR
TONIGHT MADE ONLY MINOR TERRAIN BASED CHANGES TO THE LOW
TEMPERATURES. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP A LITTLE HIGHER THAN EVEN THE
WETTER MAV MOS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. FOLLOWING THAT...THE POPS WERE
MOST SIMILAR TO THE LOWER MET NUMBERS TONIGHT AND IN LINE WITH A
BLEND OF THE FAIRLY HIGH GUIDANCE TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK QUITE ACTIVE...WITH REPEATED
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST. THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PERIODS LOOK TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE AIDED BY PEAK HEATING AND
MAXIMUM INSTABILITY REALIZATION. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A
LARGE SCALE PATTERN THAT WOULD FEATURE A SERIES OF LARGE SCALE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHS MIGRATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS AND SOUTHERN
CANADA. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES THAT WILL BE TRAILING FROM
THE SURFACE REFLECTIONS OF THE UPPER TROUGHS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO
TRAVERSE THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. THESE FRONTS WOULD ACT AS
THE PRIMARY TRIGGERS FOR SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY. TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE PERIODS...AS A SLUGGISH
COLD FRONT MEANDERS ABOUT THE AREA. A FEW OF THE STORMS TUESDAY
EVENING COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. THE ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF RAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE STILL ON TRACK TO BE
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE BOARD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. SW WINDS WERE
GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64. SHOWERS
WERE PRESENT JUST TO THE WEST OVER CENTRAL KY. THE PRECIP WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD...WITH EASTERN KENTUCKY EXPECTING MVFR IN
SHOWERS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED IFR IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THE WIND SHOULD
DIMINISH A BIT TOWARD EVENING. AS TEMPERATURES WARM UP ON
TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START TO REDEVELOP
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1252 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015
ONCE AGAIN...HAVE MAINLY UPDATED TO BLEND OBS INTO THE FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 926 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015
UPDATED SKY CONDITION TO BLEND MORNING SATELLITE OBS INTO THE
DAYTIME FORECAST...BUT WITH LITTLE SUBSTANTIVE CHANGE. OTHER
FORECAST ELEMENTS WERE STILL IN GOOD SHAPE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015
THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK SO HAVE JUST UPDATED THE
SKY/T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
KENTUCKY BETWEEN BROAD LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS AND HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE INVERSION IN PLACE OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY AND NATURE OF THE TERRAIN IS KEEPING THE WINDS
LIGHT TO CALM IN MOST PLACES. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SMATTERING OF
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS...HAS LED TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLITS ACROSS
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. READINGS CURRENTLY VARY FROM THE MID 50S
IN THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON THE
RIDGES AND IN MORE OPEN LOCATIONS. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE IN THESE
SITUATIONS...EKQ SHOWS THE RESULTS OF A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
WITH SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 17 KTS AND TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S AT
LAST OBSERVATION. WHILE DEW POINTS HAVE COME UP DURING THE PAST
24 HOURS THEY ARE STILL ON THE RELATIVELY DRY SIDE RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 50S IN THE FAR EAST AND ON RIDGETOPS TO THE MID 50S IN
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AND VALLEY LOCATIONS.
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL
DEPICT A SHARP RIDGE PUSHED FURTHER EAST FROM THE AREA IN THE
FACE OF A BROAD AND OPENING TROUGH CROSSING THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TODAY. A COUPLE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH
THE REGION JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF EAST KENTUCKY. THE FIRST OF
THESE GOES BY FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN FURTHER HEIGHT FALLS. AFTER A QUIET NIGHT...A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WAVE PASSES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE BODILY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL TROUGH/S
REMNANT CORE. THIS WILL BRING A DECENT MID LEVEL WIND FIELD
THROUGH THE AREA AS IT MOVES BY AND LIKELY FUEL STRONGER AND
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE STATE WHEN COMBINED WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE. HAVE FOLLOWED THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND NAM12 MOST CLOSELY
GIVEN THE OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT AND SMALLER SCALE NATURE OF THE
DETERMINANT FEATURES.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL START OFF QUIET ENOUGH FOR THIS HOLIDAY...
AND FOLLOWING SEVERAL DAYS OF NEAR PERFECT WX...BUT WILL LIKELY
TURN CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE BY MIDDAY STARTING IN THE WESTERN PARTS
OF THE CWA AND PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE EARLIER
HRRR RUNS AND HINTS WITHIN THE NAM12 SUGGESTED A POSSIBILITY OF A
STRAY SHOWER AROUND EAST KENTUCKY BEFORE 15Z IN ADVANCE OF THE
MAIN AREA BOTH MODELS DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE
OVERDONE...AND NOW DISCOUNTED BY THE LATEST HRRR...GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE
STATE. NEVERTHELESS...THEY DO AGREE ON A FAIRLY ACTIVE AFTERNOON
FOR MOST OF THE AREA AS THE LEAD MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE INITIATES
CONVECTION EARLY ON TO THE WEST AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
PROGRESSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO DO THE REST. THE
ACTIVITY WILL WANE EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE TIME OF TYPICAL CONVECTIVE MINIMUM.
RENEWAL OF ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY AS THE NEXT WAVE
BRUSHES BY ALOFT WITH A BETTER WIND FIELD AND AS MUCH...OR
POTENTIALLY MORE...INSTABILITY IN PLACE. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR
ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS AND THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL REST ON PARTIAL CLEARING AND THE ABILITY OF THE AIR MASS
OVER EKY TO OVERCOME ANY EARLIER STABILIZING EFFECTS OF
CONVECTION/DEBRIS FROM THAT MORNING/S LIMITED CONVECTION. WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS...AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
SPC OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...WILL HIGHLIGHT CONCERNS IN THE HWO...A
WEB HEADLINE...AND A HEADS UP EMAIL TO OUR PARTNERS. THIS SHOULD
ENSURE THAT DECISION MAKERS ARE NOT CAUGHT UNAWARE OF THE STORM
POTENTIAL COMING OFF A LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD AND WIND
GRIDS TODAY BEFORE WRAPPING UP WITH THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER FOR
TONIGHT MADE ONLY MINOR TERRAIN BASED CHANGES TO THE LOW
TEMPERATURES. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP A LITTLE HIGHER THAN EVEN THE
WETTER MAV MOS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. FOLLOWING THAT...THE POPS WERE
MOST SIMILAR TO THE LOWER MET NUMBERS TONIGHT AND IN LINE WITH A
BLEND OF THE FAIRLY HIGH GUIDANCE TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK QUITE ACTIVE...WITH REPEATED
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST. THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PERIODS LOOK TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE AIDED BY PEAK HEATING AND
MAXIMUM INSTABILITY REALIZATION. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A
LARGE SCALE PATTERN THAT WOULD FEATURE A SERIES OF LARGE SCALE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHS MIGRATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS AND SOUTHERN
CANADA. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES THAT WILL BE TRAILING FROM
THE SURFACE REFLECTIONS OF THE UPPER TROUGHS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO
TRAVERSE THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. THESE FRONTS WOULD ACT AS
THE PRIMARY TRIGGERS FOR SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY. TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE PERIODS...AS A SLUGGISH
COLD FRONT MEANDERS ABOUT THE AREA. A FEW OF THE STORMS TUESDAY
EVENING COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. THE ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF RAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE STILL ON TRACK TO BE
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE BOARD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER...CEILINGS WILL FIRM UP AND BEGIN TO LOWER DURING THE DAY
AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TAKE SHAPE OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR
AND BRIEF IFR CIGS/VIS INTO THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ANY
STORM. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH A
DIMINISHING TREND TO COVERAGE AND LIKELY IMPROVEMENTS IN THE
CIGS. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
DAY REACHING 10 TO 20 KTS FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON AMID THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. LOOK FOR THE WINDS TO SETTLE DURING THE
EVENING FOLLOWING SUNSET.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
428 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
MN INTO CO AND A RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS RESULTING IN SW FLOW FROM
THE SRN PLAINS TO THE WRN LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS UPPER MI INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WAS LIFTING
NE THROUGH ERN LAKE SUPERIOR LEAVING A PROMINENT DRY SLOT INTO CNTRL
UPPER MI. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER W CNTRL UPPER MI
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING BACK THROUGH CNTRL MN INTO SE SD.
UPSTREAM...ANOTHER WEAKER SHRTWV SUPPORTED SOME TSRA OVER NRN IA.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY HAD DEVELOPED OVER NRN WI FOR SOME ISOLD -SHRA TO
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE LARGER RAIN AREA.
TONIGHT...MODELS ALONG WITH RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE
NRN IA PCPN MAY SPREAD TOWARD THE S AND E PORTION OF THE CWA BY LATE
THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ALSO HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH A SHRTWV OVER SE SD THAT COULD MOVE
INTO W UPPER MI...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. OTHERWISE...MILD CONDITIONS
WITH LOWS IN THE MID50S ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT SW WINDS PREVAILING.
TUE...THE SHRTWV OVER NRN TX THAT SUPPORTED A VERY LARGE MCS IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT TOWARD THE WRN LAKES BY LATE TUE BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PCPN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS MORE
UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE PCPN WILL DEVELOP AS THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE
RAIN FARTHER WEST COMPARED TO THE NAM/REG-GEM. WITH MUCAPE VALUES
INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE...SOME TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SLIDE INTO NORTHERN
QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO PASS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ALOFT...AN ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AROUND THE
SAME TIME FRAME. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FOR WEST AND CENTRAL AREAS TUESDAY
EVENING...THEN SPREADING INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING THE FRONT WILL BE PAST THE CWA...HOWEVER...THE SHORTWAVE
WILL STILL BE NEARBY ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF MORE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE COOLER AIR ALOFT.
INSTABILITY WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE MENTION FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND
300 J/KG TO AROUND 800 J/KG...AGAIN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
BE EARLIER IN THE DAY WITH THE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT. SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD LOOKS TO BE LIMITED WITH VERY
LITTLE SHEAR ALONG WITH LIMITED CAPE.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...MUCH OF
THE AREA WILL GET A BREAK FROM THE RAIN SHOWERS AS THE CWA WILL BE
BETWEEN SYSTEMS DURING THAT TIME WITH THE COLD FRONT TO THE EAST AND
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLIDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. TIMING ISSUES REMAIN
BETWEEN THE GFS/EC THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ON THE EXACT
LOW POSITION ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT POSITION. THE GFS IS STILL
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM WHILE THE EC IS MUCH SLOWER AT
MOVING THE SYSTEM THROUGH. EITHER WAY...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE WET WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING THROUGH.
ALOFT...A 500 MB TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE SAME
TIME FRAME...WHILE LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IF THE FRONT MOVES IN DURING
THE AFTERNOON...PEAK HEATING HOURS...WHICH IS SUGGESTED BY THE EC.
IF THE GFS SOLUTION VERIFIES...THEN THE FRONT WILL ALREADY BE PAST
MOST OF THE U.P. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...HELPING TO LIMIT THE CHANCES.
MUCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 400-700 J/KG FROM THE GFS TO AROUND 800-
1100 J/KG FROM THE EC. SHEAR VALUES FROM THE EC ARE PROGGED TO BE
AROUND 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITH PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONT AT THE ONSET.
AGAIN MUCH OF THIS IS CONDITIONAL...DEPENDING LARGELY ON THE OVERALL
TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES SLIDING ACROSS THE COLD WATERS OF THE GREAT
LAKES WILL ALLOW WIDESPREAD FOG TO FORM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY WHEN THE RAIN SHOWERS PUSH OVER THE AREA. THE
FAIRLY STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION CAN BE NOTED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.
SATURDAY THROUGH THE REMAINING EXTENDED...NICE WEEKEND EXPECTED AS
DRY COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING.
CALM WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR
IN PLACE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW NORMAL...INTO THE 30S
FOR OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
INLAND AREAS. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER
GREATLY WITH THE GFS BRINGING A LOW NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WHILE
THE EC MAINTAINS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. AT THIS POINT...WILL
STICK WITH A CONSENSUS FOR THAT TIME PERIOD DUE TO THE MODEL
DISAGREEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO IWD/SAW. THERE
COULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT TO
THE WSW BEHIND FROPA. IMPROVEMENT IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR AT SAW AS
WINDS WILL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WHERE A PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED. MEANWHILE...MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF
OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA WILL KEEP VLIFR
CONDITIONS AT CMX THAT MAY DROP BLO LANDING MINIMUMS ONCE THE RAIN
DIMINISHES. ONCE THE WINDS BECOME WRLY THIS EVENING...CONTINUED VLIFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE TUE MORNING
AS CIGS GRADUALLY LIFT ABOVE 1K FT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT SO THE WINDS
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH. WINDS THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 25 KTS. FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES. ADDITIONAL FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
425 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
MN INTO CO AND A RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS RESULTING IN SW FLOW FROM
THE SRN PLAINS TO THE WRN LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS UPPER MI INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WAS LIFTING
NE THROUGH ERN LAKE SUPERIOR LEAVING A PROMINENT DRY SLOT INTO CNTRL
UPPER MI. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER W CNTRL UPPER MI
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING BACK THROUGH CNTRL MN INTO SE SD.
UPSTREAM...ANOTHER WEAKER SHRTWV SUPPORTED SOME TSRA OVER NRN IA.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY HAD DEVELOPED OVER NRN WI FOR SOME ISOLD -SHRA TO
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE LARGER RAIN AREA.
TONIGHT...MODELS ALONG WITH RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE
NRN IA PCPN MAY SPREAD TOWARD THE S AND E PORTION OF THE CWA BY LATE
THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ALSO HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH A SHRTWV OVER SE SD THAT COULD MOVE
INTO W UPPER MI...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. OTHERWISE...MILD CONDITIONS
WITH LOWS IN THE MID50S ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT SW WINDS PREVAILING.
TUE...THE SHRTWV OVER NRN TX THAT SUPPORTED A VERY LARGE MCS IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT TOWARD THE WRN LAKES BY LATE TUE BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PCPN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS MORE
UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE PCPN WILL DEVELOP AS THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE
RAIN FARTHER WEST COMPARED TO THE NAM/REG-GEM. WITH MUCAPE VALUES
INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE...SOME TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015
SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN TUE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND INTO TUE NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. STILL THE USUAL MODEL UNCERTAINTY
WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL BE MODIFIED BY CONVECTION...BUT THE
OVERALL SIGNAL IS GENERALLY AGREED ON. DEPENDING ON DETAILS THAT
WILL HAVE TO BE SORTED OUT LATER...ANYWHERE FROM 300 TO 1000 J/KG OF
CAPE MAY BE REALIZED TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...SO THUNDER WILL REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST. STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...BUT
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT PLAY THAT UP TOO MUCH YET.
AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH ON WED WILL INTERACT WITH ANY
INSTABILITY DURING PEAK HEATING. THE QUESTION REMAINS (WITH PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY) OF HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL RESULT. MODEL RANGE OF
CAPE VALUES IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG AND WELL OVER
1000 J/KG...SO WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE
SITUATION CLOSELY. DO THINK THAT PRECIP POTENTIAL IS LOWER THAN TUE
AS THE FORCING IS WEAKER...BUT THE CONDITIONAL THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXISTS.
AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE
AREA LATE THU EVENING INTO FRI NIGHT USING CONSENSUS TIMING (THE GFS
IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF). COULD SEE THUNDER AS WELL.
A SFC HIGH DOMINATING NEXT WEEKEND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AND
COOLER AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND 0C. TEMPS LOOK TO BE AS MUCH AS
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO IWD/SAW. THERE
COULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT TO
THE WSW BEHIND FROPA. IMPROVEMENT IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR AT SAW AS
WINDS WILL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WHERE A PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED. MEANWHILE...MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF
OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA WILL KEEP VLIFR
CONDITIONS AT CMX THAT MAY DROP BLO LANDING MINIMUMS ONCE THE RAIN
DIMINISHES. ONCE THE WINDS BECOME WRLY THIS EVENING...CONTINUED VLIFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE TUE MORNING
AS CIGS GRADUALLY LIFT ABOVE 1K FT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015
LIGHT WINDS INCREASE TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. EAST WINDS MAY REACH 25 KTS...STRONGEST OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ALSO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE BAY OF
GREEN BAY. LOW SLIDES OVERHEAD ON MONDAY NIGHT SO THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH. WINDS THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
AT OR BELOW 20 KTS. FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES. ONCE IT IS EVIDENT HOW EXPANSIVE THE FOG
IS...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
406 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
A SOMEWHAT COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN IS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AS A
BROAD SYNOPTIC LEVEL TROUGH HAS SPREAD ITSELF OUT FROM ESSENTIALLY
THE ROCKIES TO THE GREAT LAKES. WITHIN THIS TROUGH...THERE ARE
NUMEROUS WAVES SPARKING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM TEXAS TO LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE TWO THAT MATTER FOR US ARE A SUBTLE WAVE MOVING NORTH
OUT OF IOWA AND THE SHORTWAVE/MCV THAT IS DRIVING THE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX RACING ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.
SOME CLEARING ACROSS IOWA TODAY HAS ALLOWED FOR INSTABILITY TO BUILD
TO OUR SOUTH...WITH A NICE CAPE GRADIENT NOW SETUP FROM SE SODAK
ACROSS SRN MN AND INTO THE LA CROSSE AREA. THIS CAPE GRADIENT WILL
BE THE SCENE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF A NEW ULM/TWIN CITIES/CHIPPEWA
FALLS LINE. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE MEAGER AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 30 KTS...SO FROM THE SEVERE
PERSPECTIVE...NOT EXPECTING MUCH OUTSIDE OF A COUPLE OF MARGINALLY
SEVERE CELLS.
OTHER ISSUE FOR TONIGHT WILL COME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
NIGHT OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG. WE CURRENTLY HAVE A BOUNDARY SPRAWLED
OUT FROM SW MN TO NW WI AND THIS WILL BE REMAINING MORE OR LESS
STALLED OUT OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BAGGY PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE...SO EXPECT
STRATUS AND FOG TO FILL BACK IN OVERNIGHT. GFSLAMP HAS HAD DENSE FOG
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT ALL DAY FROM NE MN INTO NW WI...SO BROUGHT IN A
FOG MENTION FOR TONIGHT IN THE NE PARTS OF THE MPX CWA...BUT THIS
COULD JUST AS EASILY END UP BEING LOW STRATUS.
FOR TOMORROW...THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NEAR THE TX/OK BORDER WILL BE
HEADING INTO WISCONSIN BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER
SHIELD OF RAIN UP INTO WI DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
THIS IS A PRETTY STRONG MCV BASED ON SPIN YOU CAN SEE ON SATELLITE
AND REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS...SO LIKE THE IDEA OF THE ECMWF THAT A
PRETTY HEALTHY BURST OF RAIN COMES UP INTO WI TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...JUST WENT ALONG WITH THE WPC IDEA THAT THAT BAND WILL BE
A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN WHAT THE ECMWF HAS. AS A RESULT...TRIMMED
POPS ACROSS MOST OF MN TOMORROW...WITH LIKELY POPS CONFINED TO WRN
WI.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
LEFT OVER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY WILL BE PUSHING
EAST OF OUR WI COUNTIES TUESDAY EVENING. DRY WEATHER IS THEN
FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN PLACE.
A POCKET OF WARM AIR ALOFT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT
SINKING SOUTH TO THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. 925 MB TEMPS RISE INTO
THE LOW TO MID 20S C...SIGNALING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THIS
AGREES VERY WELL WITH THE RAW 2M TEMPS OFF OF THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM AND THE MET/MAV/EURO MOS PRODUCTS. THUS...RAISED
HIGHS INTO THE MID 80S MOST PLACES...THOUGH KEPT THEM SLIGHTLY
COOLER OVER WI AND FAR SOUTHERN MN WHERE MIXING ISN/T QUITE AS
DEEP...925 MB TEMPS ARE COOLEST...AND THERE ARE NEUTRAL HEIGHT
CHANGES.
THE WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THEY MAY BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO CLOUDS AND AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH. MAINTAINED HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS WRN MN THURSDAY AFTERNOON...EXPANDING EASTWARD
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS CONFINED TO SRN MN/WRN WI. LAPSE RATES ARE
POOR AND WINDS ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 35 KT BELOW 350 MB...SO NOT
EXPECT MUCH...IF ANY SEVERE WEATHER ATTM. THERE COULD BE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH PW VALUES NEARING 1.5 INCHES AND MBE
VELOCITIES LESS THAN 15 KT. THAT WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.
ANOTHER COOL SPELL ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND AS A 1030 MB HIGH
DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT IN SPOTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
AS A DIFFUSE SFC LOW LIFTS TOWARD DLH...WE HAVE SEEN CIGS IMPROVE
QUITE A BIT DURING THE LATE MORNING...WITH AIRPORTS OUTSIDE OF
CENTRAL MN LIKELY TO SEE VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON. STILL A FAIR
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY THOUGH WHEN IT COMES TO TSRA POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HRRR HAS BEEN PRETTY PERSISTENT IN
DEVELOPING SCT TSRA FROM NEAR KULM TO KEAU AROUND 00Z. IT ALSO
DOES AN EFFECTIVE JOB AT CLEARING CLOUDS OUT THIS AFTERNOON...SO
IT MAY BE TO AGGRESSIVE WITH TSRA DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...HOPWRF
MEMBERS SHOW SOME SCT ACTIVITY IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF WHERE
THE HRRR HAS IT...SO ADDED A VCSH MENTION FOR RWF/MSP/EAU. AFTER
THAT...HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE ON CIG FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. THE HRRR
HAS SKIES PRETTY MUCH CLEAR OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL MN AND ANY REMNANT
SHOWERS BY 7Z. THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO THE GFSLAMP...WHICH HAS
CLOUDS CLOSING BACK IN AGAIN. WITH A BAGGY PRESSURE PATTERN PROGGED
TO BE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT ALONG THE STALLED OUT BOUNDARY...
CONTINUED TO FOLLOW THE LAMP IDEA...BUT DID NOT GO QUITE AS LOW
WITH VSBYS AT STC/RNH AS IT IS GOING WITH. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...SO CURRENT TAFS MAY BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT THE END.
KMSP...EXPECTED MAINLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FOR
STORMS...IF WE SEE THEM...THEN THE 23-03Z WINDOW WOULD BE THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FOR SEEING THEM. SREF PROBS FOR MVFR CIGS AND THE HRRR
WOULD SAY CURRENT TAF MIGHT BE A BIT TOO PESSIMISTIC WITH CIGS
OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LOW LEVELS REMAINING MOIST AND A BAGGY
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY REMAINING IN PLACE
TONIGHT...DO THINK MSP EVENTUALLY ENDS UP IFR BY THE TIME THE
MORNING RUSH START TUESDAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC P.M. -SHRA/-TSRA. WINDS SE AT 5-10 KTS.
FRI...MVFR IN SHWRS/TSMS. IFR POSSIBLE. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS BECOMING
N 10-15 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
111 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1011 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
MADE A COUPLE OF CHANGES TO THE GRIDS THIS MORNING. FIRST...SPED
UP THE DEPARTURE OF THE BAND OF RAIN OVER CENTRAL MN TO THE NORTH.
OTHER CHANGE COMES THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE STRATUS IS STARTING TO
SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKNESS...WITH GOOD SWRLY SFC WINDS NOW IN PLACE
SOUTH OF I-94 TO THE SOUTH OF A SFC LOW CENTERED OVER MILLE LACS
LAKE. WE WILL SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE STRATUS BY THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL HELP WITH WARMING/DESTABILIZING OF THE
ATMO...WITH THE NAM/RAP SHOWING ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE HI-RES MODELS SHOW THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS SRN MN THIS AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY. WILL HAVE H5 HEIGHT RISES BETWEEN 20 AND 40
METERS...WHICH WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR IS THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE...BUT SEEING ENOUGH SHORT TERM GUIDANCE GENERATING
THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD SOME CHANCE THUNDERSTORM POPS ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL MN TOWARD EAU BETWEEN 21Z AND 3Z. THE SPC DID BRING
A SLIGHT RISK UP TO THE I-90 CORRIDOR...BUT SHEAR/INSTABILITY
COMBO LOOKS BETTER DOWN ACROSS IOWA...SO THINK OUR SEVERE RISK
IN THE MPX AREA IS WE COULD SEE A COUPLE OF STORMS GETTING
MARGINALLY SEVERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A PAIR OF LOW PRES
CENTERS...ONE OVER FAR S-CENTRAL MN AND A SECOND OVER SWRN
NEBRASKA...CONNECTED BY A WEAVING QUASI-STNRY FRONT. FLOW ALOFT
IS DECIDEDLY MERIDIONAL DUE TO A FAIRLY PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE SERN CONUS AND A DEEP UPR LVL LOW OVER THE
4-CORNERS REGION. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO THE
REGION DUE TO THIS UPR LVL SETUP...A LARGE AREA OF ISENTROPIC
ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE SFC FRONT ALLOWED PLENTY OF LIGHT-MOD
RAIN TO SPREAD N OVER THE WFO MPX CWFA OVERNIGHT. WITH THE FNT
ALSO LIFTING NWD...PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT IS MORE SPARSE AND THIS
IS EXPECTED TO BE THE CASE THRU THE MRNG HRS. AM CONCERNED WITH
HOW MUCH DRY SLOTTING WILL OCCUR AS THE UPR LVL LOW LIFTS OFF TO
THE NNE IN CONCERT WITH THE SFC FEATURES... BUT IT IS OBVIOUSLY
DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT PRECIP DEVELOPMENT WITH SUCH A
MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE /PWATS AROUND 1.50 INCHES/ WITHIN THE
BAROCLINIC SETUP OVER THE AREA. THAT SAID...HAVE TRIED TO DEPICT
THE DRY SLOTTING BY DROPPING POPS TO THE SLGT-LOW CHC RANGE OVER
SRN MN BY MIDDAY...THEN CONTINUING THAT TREND NWD INTO THIS AFTN.
THE FLIP SIDE OF HAVING A DRY SLOT AND POTENTIALLY ANY BREAKS IN
THE OVERCAST IS THAT THIS WOULD ALLOW ADDITIONAL INSOLATION TO
GROW ANY WORTHWHILE INSTABILITY FOR TSTMS. PREVAILING THINKING IS
THAT THE CLOUD SHIELD WITH OCNL SHWRS LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH TO
PREVENT ANY CONVECTIVE GROWTH SO HAVE CONFINED SLGT CHC TSTM
MENTION TO SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. OVERALL...STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PRECIP COVERAGE BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY
HIGH THAT TSTMS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
CWFA...IF NOT THE ENTIRE AREA. PRECIP TAPERS OFF THIS EVENING AS
THE UPR LVL LOW LIFTS INTO NRN MN AND THE SFC FEATURES SLOWLY MOVE
EWD. IN TANDEM WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
COVERAGE... TEMPS WILL BE AFFECTED DUE TO THE MORE PERSISTENT
CLOUD COVER REMAINING N AND SOME POTENTIAL BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST
S DUE TO THE DRY SLOTTING. THUS...THERE LOOKS TO BE A 10-DEGREE OR
SO GRADIENT OF HIGH TEMPS FROM N TO S ACRS THE CWFA TDA...WITH
CENTRAL MN HOLDING IN THE LWR 60S WHILE HIGHS HIT THE LWR 70S NEAR
THE IA BORDER.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
ONCE THE WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA BY TOMORROW MORNING...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL BE QUICKLY ADVANCING NORTHEAST FROM THE CO/KS AREA
AND BRING PRECIP FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN THROUGH WEST CENTRAL WI AS
MID LEVEL OMEGA MAX BECOMES FOCUSED IN THAT REGION ALONG WITH DEEP
SATURATION. FURTHER WEST...DRY AIR AND DESCENT WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY. FORCING IS NOT GREAT BUT THERE IS SOME LIMITED
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH COULD HELP PRODUCE HIGHER PRECIP VALUES
THAN THE UNDER QUARTER INCH CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR
EASTERN/SOUTHERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI.
FOR WEDNESDAY...DRIER AIR AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PUSH IN FROM
THE WEST...SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS 850MB
TEMPS SURGE TO NEAR 16C. MIX DOWN FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY GAVE TEMPS
IN THE AROUND 80 FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE FA. EXPECTING DEW
POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S DURING THE DAY.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WE GET BACK IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
REGIME ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...WHICH TRANSLATES TO A
CONTINUOUS CHANCES FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION...SO STILL CARRYING WIDESPREAD POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THIS PERIOD. ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE WARM AND MOIST SIDE
OF A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE SOUTH
OF THE AREA. FOR THE WEEKEND...CANADIAN HIGH STILL ON TRACK TO
DIVE SOUTH INTO OUR AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...AND BRING COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE FA BY SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
AS A DIFFUSE SFC LOW LIFTS TOWARD DLH...WE HAVE SEEN CIGS IMPROVE
QUITE A BIT DURING THE LATE MORNING...WITH AIRPORTS OUTSIDE OF
CENTRAL MN LIKELY TO SEE VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON. STILL A FAIR
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY THOUGH WHEN IT COMES TO TSRA POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HRRR HAS BEEN PRETTY PERSISTENT IN
DEVELOPING SCT TSRA FROM NEAR KULM TO KEAU AROUND 00Z. IT ALSO
DOES AN EFFECTIVE JOB AT CLEARING CLOUDS OUT THIS AFTERNOON...SO
IT MAY BE TO AGGRESSIVE WITH TSRA DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...HOPWRF
MEMBERS SHOW SOME SCT ACTIVITY IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF WHERE
THE HRRR HAS IT...SO ADDED A VCSH MENTION FOR RWF/MSP/EAU. AFTER
THAT...HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE ON CIG FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. THE HRRR
HAS SKIES PRETTY MUCH CLEAR OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL MN AND ANY REMNANT
SHOWERS BY 7Z. THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO THE GFSLAMP...WHICH HAS
CLOUDS CLOSING BACK IN AGAIN. WITH A BAGGY PRESSURE PATTERN PROGGED
TO BE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT ALONG THE STALLED OUT BOUNDARY...
CONTINUED TO FOLLOW THE LAMP IDEA...BUT DID NOT GO QUITE AS LOW
WITH VSBYS AT STC/RNH AS IT IS GOING WITH. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...SO CURRENT TAFS MAY BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT THE END.
KMSP...EXPECTED MAINLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FOR
STORMS...IF WE SEE THEM...THEN THE 23-03Z WINDOW WOULD BE THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FOR SEEING THEM. SREF PROBS FOR MVFR CIGS AND THE HRRR
WOULD SAY CURRENT TAF MIGHT BE A BIT TOO PESSIMISTIC WITH CIGS
OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LOW LEVELS REMAINING MOIST AND A BAGGY
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY REMAINING IN PLACE
TONIGHT...DO THINK MSP EVENTUALLY ENDS UP IFR BY THE TIME THE
MORNING RUSH START TUESDAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC P.M. -SHRA/-TSRA. WINDS SE AT 5-10 KTS.
FRI...MVFR IN SHWRS/TSMS. IFR POSSIBLE. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS BECOMING
N 10-15 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MPG
SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GLASGOW MT
1004 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SENT AN UPDATE THIS MORNING TO FINE TUNE THE POPS AND WEATHER
GRIDS BASED ON THE LATEST SHORT-TERM AND HI-RES MODEL SOLUTIONS.
THE HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAPPENING
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. CHOSE TO INCLUDE SPRINKLES FOR LESS THAN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED OR SCATTERED
AT BEST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS OVERALL WITH BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WITH A BIT MORE GUSTY NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS...WHICH SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. BMICKELSON
THE LATEST 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP MOST RAIN CHANCES
TO THE SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER FOR TODAY AND THIS IDEA MATCHES
UP WELL WITH CURRENT RADAR OBSERVATIONS...WITH REFLECTIVITY ECHOES
APPARENT OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY TRANSLATE
EAST AND PROVIDE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING AN INCH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...APPROACHING +2SD.
A NEARLY SATURATED VERTICAL COLUMN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS
SUGGESTIVE OF GREATER COVERAGE. ADDITIONALLY...LITTLE CIN AND
LOOKS LIKE 500 J/KG OF CAPE AS WELL IN THE PRESENCE OF SOME
DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR BUT NOT MUCH SPEED SHEAR IN THE 0-6 KM
LAYER. LIFTED INDEX VALUES SHOULD BE NEAR 0. THE CWA WILL ALSO BE
ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTLE THETA-E RIDGE DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MONTANA...HELPING TO ENHANCE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S ARE REFLECTIVE OF THE WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT
SO FEEL PRETTY GOOD ABOUT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST.
SPC PAINTS A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WELL TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
DISCUSSED THOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW PLACES SEE SOME
SMALL HAIL OR BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FURTHER
TO THE SOUTHEAST. PROXIMITY TO THE TROUGH COULD MEAN HIGHER
CONCENTRATIONS OF CLOUD COVER THOUGH WHICH WOULD INHIBIT SOLAR
INSOLATION AND LIMIT STRENGTH OF CONVECTION AND THAT IS A FACTOR
TO BE CONSIDERED. NEVERTHELESS DO EXPECT SHOWERS AND GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS DESCRIBED SETUP...AND A FEW COULD
CERTAINLY PRODUCE BRIEF STEADY/HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE VERTICAL COLUMN. MALIAWCO
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH AN AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS MONTANA THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THIS TROUGH WILL
SPLIT. GFS GENERALLY SPLITS THE TROUGH AND TAKES IT TO THE SOUTH
BEFORE IT REACHES EASTERN MONTANA WHILE THE ECMWF WAITS UNTIL THE
SYSTEM UNTIL IT REACHES NORTH DAKOTA. MEANWHILE...THEY AGREE ON A
COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND GENERATE SOME PRECIP WITH IT. WILL
MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
WHICH WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT COULD STALL
OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES IN THE SOUTHWEST.
AFTER A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA FRIDAY
NIGHT... THE FRONT MOVES BACK EAST AS A WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY COULD
BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COULD BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEXT MONDAY. FORRESTER
&&
.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR.
RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH
AND EAST OF KGDV TODAY.
WINDS: LIGHT SOUTHEAST BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1256 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1255 PM MONDAY...CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S AREA-WIDE. SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR EXCEPT
FOR A FEW WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS. NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM MON...ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH
IN CONTROL. COULD SEE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...ESP ALONG
THE COAST WITH MOIST SLY FLOW. LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MON...MID/UPR RIDGE WILL CONT NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
COAST THRU THE PERIOD...THIS WILL SUPPRESS PRECIP CHCS ESPCLY
ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT MCLR TO PC SKIES WITH NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AS SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE COAST KEEPS WINDS MAINLY
FROM THE S. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 6OS WITH AROUND 70
BEACHES. HIGHS WILL WARM FROM LOW TO MID 80S INLAND TUE TO UPR
80S AROUND 90 LATER IN PERIOD...BEACHES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER.
WILL CONT WITH SLIGHT POPS INLAND THU AND FRI AFTN AS AXIS OF
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE NEAR THIS AREA...AND INLAND MOVING SEA BRZ
COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLD CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF CYCLE AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH JUST A FEW FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS TODAY. WHILE SOME PATCHES OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE OF A LARGE ENOUGH EXTENT TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MON...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG AS
LOW LVLS GRAD MOISTEN BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE QUITE
LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME ISOLD SHRA/TSRA DURING AFTN/EARLY
EVENING DEEP INLAND LATE IN WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1255 PM MONDAY...WINDS BECOMING A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY ON THE
COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS...BUT SPEEDS CONTINUE AT 10 KNOTS OR
LESS. SEAS RUNNING 1 TO 2 FEET. LATEST 3KM HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW
THAT GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME 10
TO 15 KNOTS WINDS POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z. ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MON...PERSISTENT PATTERN WILL CONT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE MAINTAINING MAINLY S WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS. SPEEDS
WILL BE LOWEST LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING AND PEAK DURING AFTN AND
EARLY EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE
THRU THE PERIOD...HIGHEST OUTER WATERS.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/CTC
MARINE...RF/CTC/CQD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
331 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
AS DEPICTED WELL BY THE HRRR RUNS FROM THIS MORNING AND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY...ANY THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED COMPARED TO THE MORE
DOMINANT RAIN SHOWER MODE. GIVEN THE DIURNAL NATURE OF THIS
CONVECTION AND LACK OF STRONG FORCING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FADE WITH SUNSET. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT...DID ADD A PATCHY FOG MENTION TO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WITH RAINFALL FROM EARLIER TODAY...CLEARING
SKIES TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH.
A MILD TUESDAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
IN A RATHER DEFUSE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER JAMES RIVER
VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ONCE AGAIN GIVEN WEAK
INSTABILITY...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
A PERSISTING REX BLOCKING PATTERN...OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...IS
PROJECTED WITHIN THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT AND CONTINUE OVER NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE WEEKEND.
THEREAFTER...A TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW IS PROJECTED BY THE LONG
TERM MODELS. OVERALL...SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTS WAVES WITHIN THE
NORTHERN STREAM ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. AS OF NOW...THE GREATEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE COMPLEXITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS
RESULTED IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL MODEL UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
MVFR/VFR CUMULUS FIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND STRATUS WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION AREA
WIDE WILL BEGIN TO FADE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1255 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
SHOWERS ARE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST...AND PRECIP
HAS ENDED ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF SE ND. HOWEVER...SHOWERS CONTINUE
IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE (JUST NORTH OF THE 700MB LOW) ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WC/NW MN. ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR
IMAGERY...BUT OVERALL THE MAIN IDEA STILL HOLDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 959 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
THIS EVENT CONTINUES TO UNFOLD AS EXPECTED. 700MB LOW SITS ACROSS
THE FERGUS FALLS/ELBOW LAKE AREA...WITH A SFC LOW ACROSS CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE MID-LEVEL
LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT (OR BECOME MORE
ELONGATED). THIS WOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING FORCING GRADUALLY ENDING
FROM WEST TO EAST. UPDATED POPS TO 100% WHERE IT IS RAINING...AND
USED THE HRRR FOR TIMING. ALSO...INCREASED QPF ACROSS THE WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA COUNTIES. SEBEKA OBSERVER REPORTED 0.76
INCHES...AND WOULD THINK ANOTHER 0.75 INCHES LIKELY GIVEN ANOTHER
6-9 HRS OF RAINFALL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
WITHIN THE LARGER UPPER TROUGH OVER WYOMING/SD/NEBRASKA REGION
AREA SEVERAL SMALLER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES. ONE IS IN ERN SD AND
THIS WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST THRU CNTRL MN TODAY. THIS HAS
BROUGHT THE ENHANCED LIGHT RAIN WHICH HAS LONG BEEN FORECASTED FOR
SRN ND INTO CNTRL MN. ALL MODELS NOW SHOW THE NRN EDGE OF LIGHT
RAIN TODAY VERY NEAR A WASKISH-RED LAKE FALLS-CROOKSTON-GRAND
FORKS-NEW ROCKFORD LINE...WITH ITS NRN EXTENT LATE MORNING BEFORE
DROPPING BACK SOUTH IN THE AFTN. GRIDS FOLLOWED THIS WELL SO ONLY
MINOR TWEEKS WERE NEEDED. RAINFALL WILL END THIS EVE IN WCNTRL MN.
TUESDAY WILL SEE MORE SUN AND IT WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH HIGHS
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SRN SASK INTO
SRN MANITOBA ALONG WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL GENERATE A FEW
T-STORMS IN THE AFTN/EVE OVER NE ND/NW MN. MINOR EVENT AND KEPT
POPS IN THE 20-30 RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
ANOTHER WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH 70S AND LOWER 80S. SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY REMAINS MAINLY NEAR A BOUNDARY IN SRN CANADA SO
MAINTAINED A LOW POP NRN AREAS FOR ANY AFTN T-STORMS.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY WILL STAY IN ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL HAVE ONE SHORT WAVE THAT WILL AFFECT
THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL BE
THURSDAY THEN SLOWLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY. COLD
FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA THU NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN MUCH
COOLER TEMPS FRI INTO SAT. SAT MORNING LOWS COULD BE IN THE UPPER
30S IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH HIGHS FRI/SAT IN THE 60S. TEMPS THEN
MODERATE BY SUN INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
WIDESPREAD VFR CIGS OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND MINNESOTA WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAIN AT FAR AND BJI THROUGH AROUND 22Z TO 02Z
THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH 06Z
BEFORE THE VFR CIGS BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST. NO STEADY PRECIP EXPECTED
AT TVF/GFK ALTHOUGH A SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE...WHILE DVL AREA SHOULD
CLEAR OUT BY MID AFTN.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...SPEICHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1237 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. CUMULUS FIELDS
ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AS OF 1730 UTC WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WEAK SURFACE
DESTABILIZATION. THE 12 UTC WRF-ARW/NMM AND 14-16 UTC HRRR
ITERATIONS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING
WITH CONTINUED HEATING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
STRATIFORM ACROSS THE COOLER SOUTHWEST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 851 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE WAS TO INTRODUCE POPS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL. THE 11-12 UTC HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST WEAK...SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION WITH DIURNAL HEATING. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE 06
UTC NAM AND 09 UTC SREF. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK. NOW THAT THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD HAS FILLED IN...THERE IS BETTER JUSTIFICATION TO BUMP UP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM THE JAMES VALLEY TO THE EASTERN
MISSOURI VALLEY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MADE ONLY AESTHETIC
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS RAIN.
EARLY THIS MORNING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WERE BREAKING OUT
ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW AND VORT MAX
IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. LIGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTH
DAKOTA...THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES WERE VISIBLE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ONE WAS CENTERED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. THE MODELS HAVE THIS VORT MAX PHASING WITH THE OTHER
NEARBY IMPULSES THIS AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY EXITING THE REGION. THE
WRF/RAP SHOW RAIN SCATTERING OUT AND WINDING DOWN BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WRF/RAP ALSO INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY MIGHT DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...KEPT
A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...BUT
REMOVED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EVERYWHERE ELSE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. WITH THE SURFACE LOW
AND BEST FORCING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY SEE THE BULK OF THE RAIN.
AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.5 TO AS MUCH AS 1.0 INCHES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
THE FORECAST FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON PRECIPITATION.
EASTERN PACIFIC REX BLOCKING AND RESULTANT DOWNSTREAM SPLIT FLOW
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL DAYS WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
BECAUSE OF THE FLOW REGIME COMPLEXITY...THOUGH... FORECASTS HAVE
HIGHER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY.
MUCH OF THE UNCERTAINTY STEMS FROM NORTH DAKOTA FALLING IN THE
ZONE BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM.
WHEN MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WITHIN EACH BRANCH BECOME PHASED...THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHEST. SUCH IS THE CASE ON
WEDNESDAY...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/NAM/GEFS/GEM GLOBAL.
03 UTC SREF PROBABILITY FOR CAPE GREATER THAN 500 J/KG IS OVER 50
PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
DAKOTAS...SO THAT IS ALSO THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...THERE ARE SEVERAL SHORTWAVES THAT
JUSTIFY SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
MVFR/VFR CUMULUS FIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN AND STRATUS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION AREA WIDE WILL BEGIN
TO FADE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
155 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VERY UNSTABLE AIR OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS.
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY PROGRESSING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST. HAVE TRIED TO TIME THE EXPECTED
ARRIVAL TIMES INTO THE TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH MORE DIFFICULT FOR FAR
NORTHWEST AR AND NORTHEAST OK. SOME CONVECTION TRYING TO SPREAD
NORTH ALONG RED RIVER SOUTH OF MLC. EXPECT TRW AT MLC AROUND 4 PM. /SA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 741 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ALL OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE/CONVECTIVE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT STRONG TO SEVERE
MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
PATCHY FOG / LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT THIS MORNING.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CURRENTLY OVER WEST-
CENTRAL TEXAS TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE STRONGER CELLS AS COMPLEX
SWEEPS AREA FROM SW TO NE. LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG / LOWER CLOUD CEILINGS
REDEVELOPING.
AS A SIDE NOTE: CURRENTLY EVALUATING WHETHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH
NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA GIVEN
POTENTIAL MCS TRACK.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 456 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/
DISCUSSION...
FLOOD WATCH SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FROM 4 PM TO
NOON TUESDAY.
UPPER WAVE HAS ROUNDED THE BEND FAR WEST TEXAS
AND IS HEADED FOR SOUTHEAST OK. A WIDE SPECTRUM
MODEL SOLUTIONS...WITH GFS SHUNTING BULK PRECIP
TO SOUTHEAST WHILE ECMWF PLACES MAX PRECIP OVER
WATCH AREA. EVER WET CANADIAN MODEL PLACES MORE
THAN 2 INCH PRECIP OVER ALL OF SOUTHEAST OK AND
WEST CENTRAL AR IN A...6 HOUR PERIOD..ENDING AT
06Z! LATEST HRRR RUNS GIVE CREDENCE TO GENERAL
ECMWF SOLUTION. ALMOST ANY PRECIP FROM THUNDER
WILL BE CAPABLE OF 1 INCH/ 30 MIN RAINFALL RATE
AND INITIATE FLOODING. STAY INFORMED STAY TUNED.
MOST PRECIPITATION WILL OVER BY TUESDAY MORNING.
NO REAL BREAK..THE REST OF THIS SHORT WORK WEEK
WITH CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDER MENTIONED EVERY DAY.
MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN COMING OVER THE
WEEKEND (OF COURSE) AS YET ANOTHER POTENT UPPER
WAVE MOVES FROM THE WESTERN STATES INTO PLAINS.
GW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 81 61 81 65 / 60 70 10 50
FSM 81 64 81 66 / 50 100 20 40
MLC 78 62 80 67 / 80 80 20 60
BVO 81 59 80 62 / 30 50 10 40
FYV 78 61 78 62 / 30 100 20 30
BYV 80 61 79 63 / 30 100 30 30
MKO 78 61 80 65 / 60 90 20 50
MIO 79 61 79 62 / 30 70 20 50
F10 78 60 80 65 / 70 80 20 60
HHW 78 64 82 68 / 80 80 20 30
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...02
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
700 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST
AND A SHARP UPPER RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER A GENERALLY SUNNY...DRY AND
VERY WARM MEMORIAL TODAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT
OFF THE EAST COAST...LEADING TO AND INCREASING HUMIDITY AND A
CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. A STRONG CFRONT WILL PUSH
SE ACROSS THE STATE SAT AFTERNOON OR NIGHT...LEADING TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND TSRA THEN MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR WILL ADVECT NE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.
AN AREA OF GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES OCCUPIES THE WARM SECTOR OVER
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT...BENEATH A
SHARP UPPER RIDGE AXIS.
PWATS OF AROUND 1 INCH /WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/...WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PENN...AND WE SHOULD SEE SOME ISOLATED-
WDLY SCTD SHRA POP UP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PENN /IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE PWAT AXIS AND IN THE PATH OF THE A FEW
SHORTWAVES ALOFT LIFTING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/.
SLIGHTLY WARMING TEMPS ALOFT /BETWEEN 700 AND 600 MB/ WILL LIKELY
PUT A LID ON THE VERY THIN CAPE OF JUST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL
PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY. SO...EXPECT A DRY AND VERY WARM
MEMORIAL DAY TO HONOR AND CELEBRATE THOSE WHO SACRIFICED FOR OUR
COUNTRY.
TEMPS AREA NEARING THEIR MAXES AND RANGE FROM AROUND 80F ACROSS
THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...TO THE MID 80S THROUGHOUT THE SCENT MTNS
AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. A FEW SPOTS COULD TOP OUT AROUND 87F BY
21Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL GET ABOVE
1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT REMNANT MCV/S AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/SCTD TSRA FROM THE
VERY ACTIVE SRN PLAINS STATES AND LOWER MISS VALLEY CONVECTION.
THESE WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO CAPTURE FEATURES WILL TRIGGER
SOME SHRA/TSRA AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE A TOUGH TIME
CAPTURING/TIMING THE IMPACTS OF SUCH WEAK SHORTWAVES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...WHILE FORECASTS OF PEAK INSTABILITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS PROVIDE MUCH GREATER CONFIDENCE IN AT
LEAST SCTD SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN 17Z-01Z.
SPC CONTINUES TO PAINT A MARGINAL RISK UP AND OVER THE WRN HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA FOR DAY 2 - TUES AFTERNOON AND TUES NIGHT.
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO.
MEAN SREF CAPES TOP OUT BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG 18-23Z
TUESDAY...AND 0-3KM SHEAR IS WEAK-MDT WITH A GENERALLY LINEAR
PROFILE. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTI-CELL TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE CWA.
MAX TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON TUES WITH MORE
CLOUDS THAN WE HAD DURING THE DAY TODAY /MONDAY/.
HIGH CHC POPS WILL BE PAINTED TUESDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD 40-50 PCT
OVER MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THEM LOWER IN THE SE - WHERE THEY
WILL BE FARTHER FROM THE FORCING AND UNDER WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AND
MORE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE FROM THE NEARBY UPPER RIDGE AXIS .
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AGREEMENT IN
POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. EXPECT MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE THROUGHOUT THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE SHOULD BE A BOUNDARY THAT COULD
PERSIST ACROSS THE NEW YORK BORDER...WHICH COULD BRING DAILY
CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HAVE ADJUSTED MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES AS
SUCH...BUT EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS ISOLD SHOWERS DEVELOPING JUST OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL PA
AIRSPACE JUST EAST OF YNG-ERI-DKK LINE. LATEST HRRR STILL
SUGGESTS ISOLD SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLY REACHING BFD VCNTY AROUND
00Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND DURATION WOULD BE VERY BRIEF. VFR
SHOULD CONTINUE AT MOST SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING PERIOD...HOWEVER MVFR CIGS AT BFD AND VISBYS AT MDT/LNS
ARE POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS AT MDT/LNS
GIVEN INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND PERSISTANCE. ALSO CUT BACK MENTION
OF VCTS EARLY TOMORROW BUT WILL LKLY RE-INTRODUCE FOR THE AFTN.
OVERALL...THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE
LIMITED TO PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG AND/OR ISOLATED-SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.
SAT-SUN...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. SCT-NMRS P.M TSTMS W/COLD
FROPA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
221 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
.DISCUSSION...A PERSISTENT BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH A FEW STRONGER
CELLS PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN PARTS. HRRR HAS PERFORMED QUITE
WELL TODAY, AND THE SHORT-RANGE MODEL HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A
DECREASE IN THE ACTIVITY FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING, SO
AM SPLITTING TONIGHT`S POP GRID INTO 6-HOUR INCREMENTS, WITH
REDUCED POP`S FROM 00Z THROUGH 06Z. NAM SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH MOVING
INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE TOMORROW MORNING ALONG WITH THE NEXT WAVE OF
MOISTURE, THEREBY PUSHING THE DRY WEDGE NORTHWARD AND BRINGING
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POP`S BACK IN. SPC IS KEEPING THE ENTIRE MID
STATE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW AND TOMORROW
NIGHT, AND A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SHOW GOOD INSTABILITY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, MAINLY DURING
PEAK HEATING HOURS, WITH VERY LITTLE AIR MASS CHANGE FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY`S ANTICIPATED SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE, THE UPPER PATTERN BREAKS DOWN INTO A MUCH WEAKER FLOW,
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHING ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST, VERY
SUMMER-LIKE. WE MAY SEE A FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT AT
THIS POINT THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE TO THE POINT THAT
ANY CONFIDENCE REGARDING TIMING IS LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH READINGS SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FROM WEDNESDAY ON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 66 82 66 86 / 40 70 30 30
CLARKSVILLE 67 83 65 84 / 40 70 30 30
CROSSVILLE 65 76 65 77 / 60 70 70 50
COLUMBIA 66 81 66 86 / 40 80 40 30
LAWRENCEBURG 66 80 65 84 / 40 80 50 40
WAVERLY 67 82 66 85 / 40 80 30 30
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
115 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
.UPDATE...
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/
UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE. ITS BEEN A BUSY MONDAY MORNING...BUT THINGS ARE
FINALLY SETTLING DOWN ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. THE BREAK MAY PROVE TO
BE SHORT LIVED AS WE ARE RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING ACROSS THE REGION.
EAST ARKANSAS ALREADY HAS CAPES IN EXCESS OF 1000K/KG WITH LI`S
BETWEEN -2 AND -4C. WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TODAY
HELPING US TO DESTABILIZE EVEN FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60 AND AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE...DYNAMIC ENERGY MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO RESULT IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EVEN IF WE DID NOT HAVE
THE THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
EAST INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING. A LEAD SHORTWAVE
IS CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE MID SOUTH EARLY
THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AREAS
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS MORNING. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL DRY OUT TEMPORARILY LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
AS A PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRY SLOT ROTATES ACROSS THE REGION.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DURING THIS PERIOD
AND DECENT SURFACE HEATING SHOULD OCCUR AND HELP TO DESTABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE AGAIN BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR 80 DEGREES ACROSS EASTERN AREAS TO THE
MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA AREAS.
ANOTHER DISTINCT SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING. THERE
REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AMONG THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
WITH THE GFS AND NAM/WRF RUNS SUGGESTING AN EARLIER ARRIVAL
COMPARED TO THE LATEST ECMWF. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT AN
EARLIER ARRIVAL FALLS IN LINE WITH THE OVERALL DAILY MODEL RUN TO
RUN CONTINUITY ALONG WITH THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR OUTPUT.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHICH
SHOULD EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO A LINE AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.
LATEST PREFERABLE MODEL OUTPUT WITH EARLIER TIMING SUGGESTS THAT
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL AGAIN DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SBCAPE VALUES
RISING TO BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG BY 00Z TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...AS
THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THIS EVENING EXPECT 0-1 SRH TO INCREASE
TO BETWEEN 200-300 M^2/S^2 AS LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN BACKED TO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH A VEERING PROFILE WITH HEIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET WINDS
ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS WILL OVERSPREAD WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. LARGE SCALE ASCENT
WITH THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP QUICKLY BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND SPREAD
QUICKLY NORTHEAST AS A QUASI LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (QLCS) INTO
AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS EVENING. LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN ADVANCE OF THIS LINE. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
AGAIN FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL AGAIN
BE DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.
THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES. THERE MAY
BE A FEW ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IF
REALIZED WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING. THEREFORE...HAVE
CONTINUED AND EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE MID
SOUTH THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY.
AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY
MORNING...THE AREA WILL BE LEFT UNDER AN AREA OF BROAD UPPER
TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW TO OUR
NORTHWEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY BUT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNORGANIZED THROUGH THE DAY AS FOCUSED LIFT DIMINISHES AND DEEP
LAYER WIND FIELDS WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED LATE IN THE
WEEK BUT WITH A CONTINUED TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO MAINLY DIURNALLY FORCED CONVECTION.
A FEW PULSE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS AS STRONG
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS BUT WITH WEAK WIND FIELDS. ANY STORM WILL BE
SLOW MOVING AND COULD ALSO PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES ALONG WITH CONTINUED HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND AND MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUATION AND
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM WITH HUMID WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
JLH
AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD, PICK UP
THIS AFTERNOON WITH ASSOCIATED GUSTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON. A MORE ORGANIZED GROUP OF SEVERE STORMS
WILL COME THROUGH TONIGHT.
WER
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR BENTON TN-
CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-
HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1227 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
Flight conditions will improve as we head through the afternoon.
Showers and thunderstorms will depart all terminals to the east,
with ceilings rising above 3000 feet. With this clearing southwest
to west winds will gust to near 20 knots through sunset. Overnight
ceilings will drop into the 1000 to 2000 feet range at all terminals
except KABI. Here, numerical guidance suggests some of this stratus
may approach Abilene. For now we`ve added a scattered cloud group to
account for this possibility, and will monitor trends in the data
this afternoon.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015/
AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop and
move over West Central Texas TAF sites this morning. The best
potential is over KABI 15-18Z. Have VCTS at most sites this
morning...with KABI down to 2 miles in moderate rain 15-18Z. MVFR
stratus should rise to VFR at most sites by 18Z, persisting until
21Z at KABI. MVFR stratus otherwise returns after 6Z tonight from
south to north.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight )
.Heavy rainfall and severe storms possible today beginning early
this morning...
A strong upper trough will pass trough West Central Texas this
morning, with strong lift associated with it. The atmosphere was
already unstable with SPC RAP most unstable CAPES of 2000-3000 J/KG.
0-6KM bulk shears were 40-50 KTS. Large hail and damaging winds are
possible, even the potential for a tornado. The main threat, however
will be locally heavy rainfall of 1 to 3 inches, as precipitable
water increases to 1.0-1.5 inches. Heavy rainfall on already
saturated soils will have the potential for flash flooding. A flash
flood watch is in effect through 4 PM CDT.
Most of the high resolution models develop a band of thunderstorms
over I-20 corridor...from Sterling City to Brownwood this morning,
mainly after 7 AM. Another second area of storms may develop east
off the mountains of Mexico... possibly affecting the Junction to
Mason to San Saba areas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may
continue in the Big Country in the afternoon with more isolated
storms farther south. While the Big Country and southeast sections
will likely have highest potential for thunderstorms, just about
anywhere in West Central Texas will be at risk for severe storms
today with the strong instabilities present.
Kept a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over eastern
sections tonight. Most of this will be in the evening hours.
04
LONG TERM...
(Tuesday-Wednesday)
Dryline thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday and Wednesday during
the late afternoon and evening as temperatures climb into the 90s.
Moderate to high CAPE values and a low shear storm environment will
provide the threat for isolated strong updrafts that could result in
a few storms producing large hail and damaging winds.
(Thursday-Friday)
As a broad upper level trough of low pressure moves into Northern
Mexico, it will result in dryline afternoon and evening
thunderstorms each day. A cold front moving south through the
Central Plains could send an outflow boundary into West Central
Texas on Friday, providing another focus for thunderstorm
development. Max temperatures will be a little lower because of
more cloud cover.
(Saturday-Sunday)
The previously mentioned cold front meandering across the region
could bring another threat for storms over the weekend with
temperatures in the lower 80s.
26
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 80 63 90 69 89 / 70 10 20 10 20
San Angelo 85 63 93 69 91 / 50 10 20 10 20
Junction 84 65 91 70 89 / 70 20 20 10 20
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 4 PM CDT this afternoon FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...
Crockett...Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...Mason...
McCulloch...Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Schleicher...
Shackelford...Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom
Green.
&&
$$
Aviation: Doll