Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 05/24/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
1013 PM PDT Thu May 21 2015
.Synopsis...
Mild weather with mountain showers and thunderstorms will continue
through Friday. Warmer temperatures with fewer mountain showers
expected this weekend into next week.
&&
.Discussion...
Mountain showers and thunderstorms have all dissipated this
evening. Skies are partly cloudy over the area with a moderate
onshore flow and winds gusting to 20 mph delta to srn sac/nrn sj
valleys. Short term models indicate showers to rotate back over
the Sierra from Nevada after midnight will keep shower chances
going. Likely to see another layer of status cloudiness towards
morning srn/sac valley. Current forecast is on track no update
needed.
.Previous Discussion...
A broad upper level trough remains quasi-stationary along the
West Coast, with blocking ridge situated over the Rockies. Several
shortwaves have been rotating through this upper trough, and the
current one is moving toward the California coast today.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms have once again developed
this afternoon across the interior mountains of Northern
California once again. Lightning networks haven`t detected quite as
much lightning as yesterday, but today`s showers do seem to be
producing more in the way of precipitation. We`ve also seen a few
reports of snow above 8000 ft or so along the high Sierra. With
southeast to easterly flow aloft, some showers may try to work
their way down the hill toward the Valley this evening into Friday
morning. The ARW, NMM, and HRRR all hint at this possibility.
The aforementioned shortwave pushes south toward Southern
California on Friday, with steering flow becoming more northerly.
While we should still expect some mountain showers and
thunderstorms Friday afternoon, they shouldn`t be as widespread.
Northerly flow aloft will continue over Northern California
through the weekend. This should promote warmer weather, with
temperatures closer to normal. Isolated showers will still be
possible over the mountains, but confined to primarily Lake Tahoe
and southward.
Dang
&&
.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)
For the extended period, the ability of the general upper trough
pattern over the region to persist through the rest of May is
impressive. with no significant heat-ups in sight. Upper low
pressure systems with weak short waves will pass through at times.
Unlike the current system, most of the lows will be centered to the
north and east of the forecast area. Most of the instability will
linger over the mountains, with afternoon heating bringing some
thunderstorms. The Valley should remain generally dry.
Temperatures will gradually warm to near to slightly above normal
levels by mid week on. Daytime highs in the valley will generally
be in the low to mid 80s with 70s in Delta Breeze influenced areas
(upper 60s for the Vallejo/Benicia area). Mountain highs will
range in the 50s/60s while Foothills warm into the 70s. EK
&&
.Aviation...
General VFR conditions expected for tonight. Could see some
bkn020-025 cigs for the Delta and into the southern Sacramento
Valley 12-18z Friday morning. The Delta could see gusts to 30kt
tonight.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
905 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015
ONE LINE OF STORMS STILL MOVING ACROSS SEDGWICK AND PHILLIPS
COUNTIES. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LOW BUT STILL SOME POTENTIAL
HEAVY RAIN. MEANWHILE WHAT SHOULD BE THE LAST LINE OF STORMS FOR
THE NIGHT IS MOVING OUT OF DENVER...WITH ANOTHER PATCH OF DRY AIR
BEHIND IT. WILL NEED TO HANG ON TO SOME LOW POPS THE REST OF THE
NIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN CLOSER TO
THE LOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND MAINLY WEST OF OUR AREA. AREAS OF
FOG DEVELOPING DUE TO CLEARING LOOKS GOOD. MAY BE ABLE TO END THE
REMAINING PART OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLY...BUT WE WILL HOLD
ON TO IT FOR NOW GIVEN THAT THE STORMS IN THE CORNER ARE SLOW
MOVING AND FLARING UP IN INTENSITY AGAIN AT THIS TIME.
TODAYS RAIN RESULTED IN A SLIGHT UPWARD BUMP IN THE SOUTH PLATTE
FLOOD FORECAST...RESULTING IN A FLOOD WARNING DOWNSTREAM AT BALZAC
ON THE MORGAN/WASHINGTON COUNTY LINE. THERE WILL BE SOME RISES ON
THE UPSTREAM TRIBUTARIES...FROM THE POUDRE AROUND TO THE PLATTE
COMING OUT OF DENVER AND EVERYTHING IN BETWEEN...BUT THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015
AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING OVER THE NORTHEAST
COLORADO PLAINS FOR THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. ANOTHER STORM IS
PRESENTLY MOVING OUT OF DOUGLAS COUNTY AND TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD.
STORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING FAST ENOUGH THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN HELD TO LESS THAN THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH. NO
FLOODING PROBLEMS HAVE BEEN REPORTED YET...BUT WITH SOME MORE
THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXPECTED...WILL LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUE. THE LINEAR SHEAR PROFILE IS OVERWHELMING THE BUOYANCY OF
THE AIRMASS...SO TORNADIC STORMS HAVE NOT DEVELOPED. WILL CLEAR
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE TORNADO WATCH WITH ISSUANCE OF THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. REST OF WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SINCE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ONGOING.
AFTER THE EVENING CONVECTION DIES OFF...THE MOIST AIRMASS AND WEAK
FLOW WILL ALLOW STRATUS AND FOG TO RE-DEVELOP...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE
SAW THIS MORNING. FOR SUNDAY...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW WILL
STILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. THIS MEANS ANOTHER
DAY OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO LIKELY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER
LOW SLOWLY MEANDERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE SHOWERS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUING IN THE MOUNTAINS. ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS AND BECOMES AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REDEVELOP ON THE PLAINS BY AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE TROUGH WRAPS INTO COLORADO FROM THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S ON THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION.
THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AROUND...COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST NUMEROUS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S ON THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING.
COOLER UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD RETURN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS UPSLOPE
FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THE GFS SHOWS
QUITE A BIT OF QPF FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EASTWARD INTO THE
URBAN CORRIDOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHILE THE ECMWF
SHOWS VERY LITTLE. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO COLORADO FROM THE WEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 904 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE DENVER AREA BY 04Z WITH
CLEARING FOLLOWING. AREAS OF FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
BY 09Z. THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED LIFR. THE FOG SHOULD BREAK UP
BY 16Z. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS LIKELY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING ALONG NICELY AND ONLY
PRODUCING ABOUT ONE-THIRD TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS OVER THE
DENVER METRO AREA DURING THE EVENING...BUT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
AMOUNTS. THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS CONTINUES...SO WILL LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUE.
THE CACHE LA POUDRE AND SOUTH PLATTE RIVERS REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE ACROSS WELD COUNTY WITH MINOR IMPACTS. THESE FLOOD WARNINGS
WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE DAYS AS THE RIVERS WILL BE SLOW
TO RECEDE.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GIMMESTAD
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD
HYDROLOGY...DANKERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
159 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
FAST-MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN TO
RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS THIS MORNING. THEN A
COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...FROST AND MAYBE EVEN
RECORD- BREAKING COLD...IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ABOUT DRY WEATHER SUNDAY BUT A
PERIOD OF WET WEATHER MAY RETURN LATER MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
WARMER BUT MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
MID LEVEL FGEN RAIN BAND COMING ACROSS LI/LI SOUND...COASTAL CT
AND RI AT 2 AM...LIFTING NE AND WILL TRACK INTO INTERIOR RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA...PROBABLY STAYING SOUTH OF BOSTON. STEADIEST RAINS
WILL BE FOCUSED OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THRU 12Z. PREVIOUS
FORECAST CAPTURES THESE DETAILS NICELY SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH
THIS UPDATE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
================================================================
DESPITE RADAR RETURNS OVER BID/MVY AND ACK LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AS
SEEN ON THE 00Z OKX SOUNDING CONTINUES TO EVAPORATE ANY RAINFALL
BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE ACROSS THIS AREA. EVENTUALLY BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL SATURATE AND RAIN WILL REACH THE GROUND ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THE SECOND HALF OF THE
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING.
AS FOR MODEL GUIDANCE...12Z ECMWF/18Z RUNS OF GFS AND NAM/21Z SREF
AND 12Z NMM AND ARW ALL BRING NORTHWEST PORTION OF RAIN SHIELD
INTO THE BOSTON-PROVIDENCE 06Z-12Z...ALBEIT VERY LIGHT RAIN WITH
STEADIER RAIN CONFINED TO IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST INCLUDING CAPE COD
AND ISLANDS. AT 00Z RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT THIS
SCENARIO. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP ARE FARTHER SOUTHEAST.
NONETHELESS CURRENT FORECAST CAPTURES THIS THEME WITH BULK OF RAIN
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH MUCH LIGHTER RAIN NORTHWARD INTO
PROVIDENCE- BOSTON CORRIDOR. ALL OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS ON
TRACK AS WELL...THUS LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST
UPDATE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
==================================================================
TONIGHT...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS THINKING. NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL SPAWN A LATE
SEASON COASTAL LOW WAVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...THAT WILL
TRACK NEAR OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK BY FRIDAY
MORNING.
21/12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES ITS EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON STEADY
RAINFALL WORKING INTO SOUTHEAST MA AND PORTIONS OF RI OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION HOW FAR WEST THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL MAKE IT. THE 09Z SREF IS THE FARTHEST
WEST...WITH THE 12Z NAM THE FARTHEST EAST. STAYED WITH A MORE
MODERATE APPROACH...AS EVIDENCED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.
SINCE THIS WILL BE A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW...TIMING OF THE
DYNAMIC COMPONENTS COMING TOGETHER WILL BE CRUCIAL. WILL NEED TO
WATCH THIS ASPECT OF THIS STORM CLOSELY.
REGARDING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR ANY SORT OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY...
A 3-PART DAY WITH MORNING RAINS LIKELY OVER RI AND SOUTHEAST
MA...POSSIBLY NORTHWARD TO BOSTON. DRIER WEATHER...ALONG WITH
MORE SUNSHINE...BRIEFLY DEVELOPS MID TO LATE MORNING AS COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE.
ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...MAINLY
ACROSS EASTERN MA. UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD POOL ALOFT WILL ALSO
MEAN FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES. THE BIG QUESTION WHICH REMAINS TO
BE ANSWERED WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. JUST ABOUT
ALL OF THE GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY DRY ABOVE 10 KFT. THUS CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOULD ANY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...SMALL HAIL WOULD BE A RISK IN
THE STRONGER CELLS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...
CONFIDENT WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE THAT COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL SWING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. PROBABLY
LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH TO WARRANT FROST ADVISORIES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN MA...AGAIN. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...
THERE IS STILL AN ISSUE WITH WINDS. STILL EXPECTING A STEADY
NORTHWEST WIND...WHICH WOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE SURFACE LAYER
MIXED...AND PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD FROST DEVELOPMENT. WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL. WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS FOR A
FEW LOCATIONS /SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW/.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...
- UNSEASONABLY COOL SATURDAY
- FROST / FREEZE HEADLINES LIKELY FOR SATURDAY MORNING
- SEASONABLE AND DRY FOR SUNDAY
- BEGINNING MEMORIAL DAY...A WET-WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS TO EMERGE
- COULD REMAIN SEASONABLE AND WET THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
*/ DISCUSSION...
CONFIDENT WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT THAT
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL SWING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
BREEZY NW FLOW REARWARD OF THE PIVOTING VORTEX THRU N NEW ENGLAND
WILL USHER AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS S ALOFT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH THE BIGGEST IMPACT
OVER N/W PORTIONS OF MA. BUT AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THINKING
THAT THE BREEZY NW-FLOW COULD MITIGATE FROST DEVELOPMENT DESPITE
COLD TEMPERATURES. WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS /SEE THE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW/. COLD AIRMASS LINGERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS S OF
NEW ENGLAND. COOL AND DRY FOR SATURDAY. MORE SEASONABLE SUNDAY WITH
RETURN S-FLOW.
BEGINNING MEMORIAL DAY AM LESS CONFIDENT WITH THE FORECAST. PACIFIC-
ORIGIN IMPULSES ROTATING THROUGH THE W-HALF OF THE CONUS INVOKE DOWN-
STREAM RIDGING INTO NEW ENGLAND. BERMUDA HIGH REAFFIRMS ROUND THE W-
PERIPHERY WHICH SW-FLOW PREVAILS. THE WARM-FRONTAL LEADING EDGE OF
WARM-MOIST AIR WILL BE A FOCUS FOR WET-WEATHER AS PACIFIC IMPULSES
EJECT E THROUGH RIDGE PATTERN. COMBINATION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT
BENEATH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ALLOWING FOR BROADSCALE LIFT...CAN NOT RULE
OUT SHOWERS AROUND MONDAY - TUESDAY. FEEL BETTER CHANCES ARE N/W
AWAY FROM THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW / DRY AIR AND TOWARDS MORE FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGEST
A FLAT-FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH WHICH PACIFIC-ORIGIN
IMPULSES PREVAIL. CONSIDERING THE OFFSHORE BERMUDA HIGH AND A VORTEX
PREVAILING ACROSS CANADA...MAY BE DEALING WITH A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
AS THE WARM-MOIST FLOW IS STRETCHED ACROSS THE NE CONUS
UNDERGOING LIFT AND ENHANCEMENT AS MID-LEVEL IMPULSES TRANSLATE
THROUGH THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY AS ANY WOBBLE IN THE FLOW PATTERN
BETWEEN THE VORTEX N AND THE BERMUDA HIGH S WOULD MODIFY THE
CONVERGENT FLOW. GFS SUGGESTS A +1 SD OF H925 TEMPERATURES FOR
NEXT WEEK. IF +2 IT WOULD BE MORE LIKELY THAT THE CONVERGENT FLOW
WOULD BE N AND W WITH S NEW ENGLAND WARMER AND DRY BENEATH THE
RIDGE. WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND...WILL KEEP IT SEASONABLE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. ECHOING THE POINT MADE BY THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...COULD FIND OURSELVES WITHIN THE STEERING
FLOW OF UPSTREAM MCS/S. CONTINUED SIGNALS OF A CUTOFF LOW WOBBLING
ACROSS THE NW-ATLANTIC. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TODAY...RAIN SHIELD TRACKS OVER SOUTHEAST CT...SRN HALF OF RI AND
INTO SOUTHEAST MA THRU 12Z...THEN OFFSHORE. MVFR WITHIN THIS AREA
ALONG WITH LOW RISK OF BRIEF IFR. RAIN MAINLY LIGHT. VFR ELSEWHERE.
THEN BECOMING VFR AFT 12Z AS RAIN MOVES OFFSHORE. LOW RISK OF A
SPOT SHOWER LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
TONIGHT...WNW WINDS INCREASE UP TO 25 KT IN GUSTS. SPOT SHOWER
POSSIBLE UNTIL 03Z OR SO. OTHERWISE VFR AND DRY WEATHER.
SATURDAY...WEST WINDS UP TO 20 KT IN GUSTS. VFR AND DRY WEATHER
PREVAIL.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. BREEZY NW-WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY VEERING SW INTO SUNDAY.
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW-END VFR TOWARDS THE LATER-HALF WITH INCREASING -SHRA CHANCES.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
RAIN OVERSPREADS THE SOUTHERN WATERS OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES TRACKS
NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF 40N/70W BENCHMARK. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
NORTHERN EXTENT OF RAIN SHIELD. STEADY RAINFALL GIVES WAY TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND
THIS FRONT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 30 KT IN PLACES.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BREEZY NW-WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KTS THROUGH SATURDAY VEERING SW
INTO SUNDAY AND REMAINING BRISK WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. LOOKING AT
WAVES BUILDING IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CONTINUED BREEZY SW-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. WAVES IN EXCESS
OF 5-FEET MAY REMAIN ON THE S/SE-WATERS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR MAY 23RD...
BOSTON - 40 /1967/
HARTFORD - 37 /1976/
PROVIDENCE - 40 /1950/
WORCESTER - 32 /1929/
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL
CLIMATE...STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
627 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON, THEN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA
DURING MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN WELL TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...SUNNY THIS MORNING THEN PARTLY SUNNY THIS AFTN AS A BAND
OF MODEST INSTABILITY CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF A CFP PASSES SEWD
THROUGH THE AREA WITH DECENT TOTAL TOTALS BUT ALMOST ZERO MLCAPE
(PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN A POSSIBLE
HIGH BASED SPRINKLE OR .01 SHOWER WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO
35KT). WE NOTED SUPPORT FOR THIS IN THE 00Z/22 NSSL WRF AND SPC
WRF. THE HRRR NOW HAS A GROUP OF SHOWERS RUNNING ESEWD THROUGH E
CENTRAL PA AND CENTRAL NJ IN THE 20-23Z TIME FRAME.
INCREASINGLY GUSTY WEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH 20 MPH
THIS MORNING AND 28-38 MPH BY MID AFTN. THE WSHIFT TO NNW ARRIVES
VCNTY I-80 IN THE 6P TIME FRAME (WHICH IS REALLY THIS EVENING-
EARLY TONIGHT).
TEMPS REBOUND AFTER YDYS 12 TO 18 BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS WITH THIS
AFTNS TEMPS ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO THURSDAY AFTN
(NEAR NORMAL MAX`S).
FORECAST GENERATED GENERALLY FROM A 5050 BLEND OF 00Z/22 NCEP MOS
GUIDANCE (GFS/NAM).
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
CLEAR AND TURNING CHILLY AS THE CFP NEAR I-80 (NE PA/NNJ) IN THE
6P TIME FRAME SLIPS DOWN TO VCNTY KACY-KPHL AROUND 11P WITH A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25 MPH EXPECTED EARLY
AT NIGHT THEN DECOUPLING-RAPIDLY DIMINISHING WIND LATE AS TEMPS
FALL RAPIDLY.
WILL CONTINUE A TOUCH OF SCT FROST FROM WARREN-SUSSEX COUNTIES IN
NW NJ INTO MONROE AND CARBON COUNTIES OF NE PA. JUST NOT ENOUGH
COVERAGE EXPECTED FOR A FROST ADVY. ALSO WITH FULL GREENUP, PROBABLY
ENOUGH LEAF COVER TO PREVENT MUCH DAMAGE. STILL, CANT BE ABSOLUTELY
SURE AND SO PATCHY FROST IS IN THE FCST AND POSSIBLE SPS MATERIAL
LATER TODAY FOR THOSE LOCATED IN SUCH PLACES AS WALPACK, PEQUEST,
THE TYPICALLY COLDEST LOW LYING AREAS IN THE NW FRINGE OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.
A BIT OF HIGH THIN CIRRUS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE SATURDAY?
FCST GENERALLY FROM A 5050 BLEND OF 00Z/22 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE
(GFS/NAM).
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A CLOSED LOW MOVING FROM NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY. THIS IS DUE TO
ENERGY STARTING TO EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, WHICH
WILL ALSO BUILD A RIDGE FROM FLORIDA NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS SOME AS IT SHIFTS
EASTWARD MONDAY AND TUESDAY, HOWEVER IT SHOULD THEN START TO FLATTEN
SOME ON ITS NORTHERN SIDE FROM ABOUT TUESDAY ONWARD. THE MAIN
FEATURE IS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BUT
THIS THEN LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. IT LOOKS TO
TURN RATHER WARM TO EVEN HOT NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS
IN PLACE DESPITE IT GRADUALLY SHIFTING MORE OFFSHORE WITH TIME. WE
USED A MODEL BLEND FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, THEN THE 00Z WPC
GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY THEREAFTER. SOME TWEAKS WERE THEN MADE
FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
FOR SATURDAY...A CHILLY START /PATCHY FROST UP NORTH/, OTHERWISE
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE AT NIGHT AS RIDGING BUILDS TO
OUR WEST. THE AIRMASS WILL BE COOL, THEREFORE HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE
60S TO ABOUT 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION. DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE, LESS WIND IS EXPECTED COMPARED TO FRIDAY.
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
EASTWARD. SOME ENERGY SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL DROP A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS BOUNDARY GENERALLY LOOKS TO BE ON THE WEAK SIDE, HOWEVER IT
COULD BE ACTIVATED MONDAY AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS, OUR AREA IS STILL WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE SOUTHWESTERLY, AND THE
COMBINATION OF WAA AND SOME FRONTAL LIFT AIDED BY SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION ON MONDAY. IT
APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE WAA/LIFT IS AIMED UP THE OHIO VALLEY
AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS THOUGH AS
SOME CONVECTION COULD SLIP INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST,
ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF, DURING MONDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE AXIS
REACHES OUR CWA. THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL BE KEY AS WE
CONTINUE TO RECOVER FROM A RATHER DRY AIRMASS THAT IS IN PLACE PRIOR
TO MONDAY. OVERALL, CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE AT LEAST LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS MONDAY. A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA ESPECIALLY MONDAY AS AN EXPANDING WARM SECTOR MOVES NORTH,
AND SOME INCREASE IN THE DEW POINTS WILL ALSO OCCUR.
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WE ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS A SHORT WAVE ALOFT AND SURFACE LOW TRACKS
TO OUR NORTH, WHICH WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE SOME. WHILE THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO STAY WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST,
SOME CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THIS APPEARS TO BE MAINLY
FOCUSED NEAR A LEE SIDE TROUGH IN THE PRESENCE OF A WARM/HOT AND
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE AND THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BREAKING DOWN ACROSS OUR AREA, ANY
CONVECTION COULD BE SLOW MOVING WHICH WOULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. AS OF NOW, THE WESTERN ZONES HAVE A HIGHER CHC OF CONVECTION
GIVEN THE FORECAST PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE AND ALSO A LEE SIDE
TROUGH. SOME PLACES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 90 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON.
THE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO 95 DEGREES
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE URBANIZED AREAS OF THE
PHILADELPHIA METRO. IT SHOULD BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST DUE TO A
SOUTHERLY FLOW.
FOR THURSDAY...IT LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT OF THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS AS
WE REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR, MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGS
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS FASTER
WITH THIS FRONT, HOWEVER WE WENT WITH THE WPC TIMING. ONCE AGAIN A
WARM TO EVEN HOT DAY IS ANTICIPATED, ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE A LITTLE
COOLER AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS SOME. SINCE A SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
FORECAST, IT SHOULD BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST. SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY INLAND, PROBABLY
FOCUSED ALONG A LEE SIDE TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...MOSTLY VFR PRIOR TO 12Z WITH A LIGHT W-NW WIND. ANY REMAINING
MVFR FOG SE NJ SOON DISSIPATES. THEN AFTER 12Z...VFR CLEAR BECOMING
SCT-BKN AOA 6000 FT THIS AFTN WITH THE SLIGHT CHC OF A WLY 38KT
GUSTY SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. GENERALLY
GRADIENT WLY GUSTS 20 KT THIS MORNING INCREASE TO 25-33 KT THIS
AFTN.
TONIGHT...VFR CLEAR. THIN CIRRUS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE SATURDAY.
WSHIFT TO 20-25KT GUSTY NNW THIS EVENING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, FIRST
NEAR I-80 AROUND 00Z REACHING KPHL/KACY AROUND 03-05Z.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, BECOMING WEST-
SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY...VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS, THEN DIMINISHING SOME
AT NIGHT.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING MONDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS MAINLY AROUND
10 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
SAFE BOATING WEEK CONCLUDES TODAY. OUR FINAL PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT FOR THIS SEASON POSTED AT 408 AM WITH THE SOCIAL MEDIA
POST AROUND 8AM. I DID GO AHEAD AND ADD THE NEW USCG SAFETY APP TO
MY SMART PHONE, JUST IN CASE IT COMES IN HANDY VIA MARINE RELATED
TALKS/INTERVIEWS.
THE FORECAST...
STARTED SCA IMMEDIATELY ON DE BAY. 26 KT SHIP JOHN AND 30 KT CAPE
MAY MESONET AS OF ABOUT 620 AM.
SCA VCNTY 44009 EARLY TODAY WITH SEAS NOW RESPONDING.
OTRW...SCA ALL OTHER WATERS WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT PERIOD OF 2P-
MIDNIGHT. WLY WIND GST 25-30 KT THIS AFTN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THEN JUST AFT OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WIND SHIFT TO NNW THIS
EVENING. STRONGEST WIND NEAR THE SHORE WHERE ITS WARMER AND BETTER
MIXING-MOMENTUM TRANSFER.
WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD SUNRISE SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING SATURDAY AND THEN
BECOMING SOUTHWEST TOWARD EVENING. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES
SUNDAY AND SHOULD INCREASE SOME, HOWEVER OVERALL THE CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF 10-20 KNOTS IS
ANTICIPATED WITHIN A WARM/HOT AIRMASS. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE HIGHER
WINDS CLOSER TO THE COAST. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY MONDAY. SEAS AT OR BELOW 4 FEET, ALTHOUGH THESE
MAY NEAR 5 FEET TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE IN
MUCH OF OUR REGION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER, YESTERDAYS RAINFALL IS
FORECAST TO KEEP FINE FUEL MOISTURE FROM FALLING BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE GREEN-UP IS NOT COMPLETE, MOST
NOTABLY THE PINE BARRENS. AS A RESULT, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
POTENTIAL HEAT WAVE NEXT WEEK. THIS PLUS WATER TEMPS CONTINUING ABOVE
NORMAL IS NOT GOOD FOR SAFETY. ONCE IT TURNS HOT AND BEACHES ARE
UNGUARDED, SWIMMERS MAY TAKE CHANCES AT UNGUARDED LOCATIONS. BE SMART
ABOUT ANY SWIMMING EARLY THIS SEASON.
RIP CURRENT AWARENESS WEEK FOR MT HOLLY IS JUNE 7-13 WITH PSAS
VIA PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS, SOCIAL MEDIA, NOAA WEATHER
RADIO AND ANY MEDIA INTERVIEWS DESIRED (CONTACT OFFICE).
FOR RIP CURRENTS: DESPITE ANTICIPATED PROJECTIONS OF LOW OR
MODERATE RISK THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND, EARLY SEASON
FATALITIES OCCUR WHEN SWIMMING AT UNGUARDED TIMES/LOCATIONS.
WEAKER SWIMMERS OR SWIMMING IN AREAS WHERE RIP CURRENTS ARE
STRONGER (JETTIES) CAN QUICKLY BECOME LIFE THREATENING. WHEN
TRAINED LIFEGUARDS ARE NOT NEARBY, TIMELY RESCUE IS MUCH LESS
LIKELY. LETS GET THROUGH THE MONTH OF MAY WITH ALL SWIMMERS SAFE!
PLEASE BROADCAST THIS MESSAGE: FOR ULTIMATE SAFETY, ALWAYS SWIM
IN THE PRESENCE OF LIFE GUARDS! THANK YOU!
&&
.CLIMATE...
**LITTLE DOUBT THAT A TOP 10 WARMEST MAY WILL OCCUR IN LARGE
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA**
THE FIRST 21 DAYS OF MAY IN OUR FORECAST AREA WERE AVERAGING
ABOUT 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
RUNNING THE NUMBERS FROM THIS MORNINGS 330AM FCST THROUGH THE
28TH AND THE 00Z/22 FTPRHA (GFS MOS) FOR THE LAST 3 DAYS BEYOND
OUR WFO RESPONSIBILITY (29-31) WE FIND THE FOLLOWING.
FOR PHILADELPHIA...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1874.
PROJECTING A MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 69 TO 70, AT LEAST 5
TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HEADING FOR SECOND OR THIRD WARMEST ON
RECORD. WARMEST WAS 70.8 IN 1991. THEN 69.2 2004.
FOR ALLENTOWN...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1922. PROJECTING
65.9 OR ABOUT 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WHICH WOULD BE 4TH-5TH
WARMEST ON RECORD. 1991 WAS THE WARMEST WITH 67.2, FOLLOWED BY
2012 66.1, THEN 1944 WHEN MAY AVERAGED 66.0 AND FINALLY THE 2004
65.9 DEGREE AVG. THE NEXT WARMEST WAS 65.3 IN 1939.
THE FOLLOWING WAS POSTED BECAUSE ITS LIKELY THAT WE WILL
EXPERIENCE OUR FIRST 90 IN PHILADELPHIA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, AND POSSIBLY A HEAT WAVE.
NORMAL FIRST DATE OF 90 OR HIGHER.
PHILADELPHIA MAY 29
ALLENTOWN MAY 30
WILMINGTON JUNE 4
ATLANTIC CITY JUNE 11.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ450>453.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ454-
455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 627A
FIRE WEATHER...
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
605 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON, THEN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA
DURING MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN WELL TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...SUNNY THIS MORNING THEN PARTLY SUNNY THIS AFTN AS A BAND
OF MODEST INSTABILITY CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF A CFP PASSES SEWD
THROUGH THE AREA WITH DECENT TOTAL TOTALS BUT ALMOST ZERO MLCAPE
(PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN A POSSIBLE
HIGH BASED SPRINKLE OR .01 SHOWER WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO
35KT). WE NOTED SUPPORT FOR THIS IN THE 00Z/22 NSSL WRF AND SPC
WRF. THE HRRR NOW HAS A GROUP OF SHOWERS RUNNING ESEWD THROUGH E
CENTRAL PA AND CENTRAL NJ IN THE 20-23Z TIME FRAME.
INCREASINGLY GUSTY WEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH 20 MPH
THIS MORNING AND 28-38 MPH BY MID AFTN. THE WSHIFT TO NNW ARRIVES
VCNTY I-80 IN THE 6P TIME FRAME (WHICH IS REALLY THIS EVENING-
EARLY TONIGHT).
TEMPS REBOUND AFTER YDYS 12 TO 18 BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS WITH THIS
AFTNS TEMPS ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO THURSDAY AFTN
(NEAR NORMAL MAX`S).
FORECAST GENERATED GENERALLY FROM A 5050 BLEND OF 00Z/22 NCEP MOS
GUIDANCE (GFS/NAM).
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
CLEAR AND TURNING CHILLY AS THE CFP NEAR I-80 (NE PA/NNJ) IN THE
6P TIME FRAME SLIPS DOWN TO VCNTY KACY-KPHL AROUND 11P WITH A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25 MPH EXPECTED EARLY
AT NIGHT THEN DECOUPLING-RAPIDLY DIMINISHING WIND LATE AS TEMPS
FALL RAPIDLY.
WILL CONTINUE A TOUCH OF SCT FROST FROM WARREN-SUSSEX COUNTIES IN
NW NJ INTO MONROE AND CARBON COUNTIES OF NE PA. JUST NOT ENOUGH
COVERAGE EXPECTED FOR A FROST ADVY. ALSO WITH FULL GREENUP, PROBABLY
ENOUGH LEAF COVER TO PREVENT MUCH DAMAGE. STILL, CANT BE ABSOLUTELY
SURE AND SO PATCHY FROST IS IN THE FCST AND POSSIBLE SPS MATERIAL
LATER TODAY FOR THOSE LOCATED IN SUCH PLACES AS WALPACK, PEQUEST,
THE TYPICALLY COLDEST LOW LYING AREAS IN THE NW FRINGE OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.
A BIT OF HIGH THIN CIRRUS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE SATURDAY?
FCST GENERALLY FROM A 5050 BLEND OF 00Z/22 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE
(GFS/NAM).
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A CLOSED LOW MOVING FROM NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY. THIS IS DUE TO
ENERGY STARTING TO EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, WHICH
WILL ALSO BUILD A RIDGE FROM FLORIDA NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS SOME AS IT SHIFTS
EASTWARD MONDAY AND TUESDAY, HOWEVER IT SHOULD THEN START TO FLATTEN
SOME ON ITS NORTHERN SIDE FROM ABOUT TUESDAY ONWARD. THE MAIN
FEATURE IS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BUT
THIS THEN LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. IT LOOKS TO
TURN RATHER WARM TO EVEN HOT NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS
IN PLACE DESPITE IT GRADUALLY SHIFTING MORE OFFSHORE WITH TIME. WE
USED A MODEL BLEND FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, THEN THE 00Z WPC
GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY THEREAFTER. SOME TWEAKS WERE THEN MADE
FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
FOR SATURDAY...A CHILLY START /PATCHY FROST UP NORTH/, OTHERWISE
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE AT NIGHT AS RIDGING BUILDS TO
OUR WEST. THE AIRMASS WILL BE COOL, THEREFORE HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE
60S TO ABOUT 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION. DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE, LESS WIND IS EXPECTED COMPARED TO FRIDAY.
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
EASTWARD. SOME ENERGY SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL DROP A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS BOUNDARY GENERALLY LOOKS TO BE ON THE WEAK SIDE, HOWEVER IT
COULD BE ACTIVATED MONDAY AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS, OUR AREA IS STILL WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE SOUTHWESTERLY, AND THE
COMBINATION OF WAA AND SOME FRONTAL LIFT AIDED BY SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION ON MONDAY. IT
APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE WAA/LIFT IS AIMED UP THE OHIO VALLEY
AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS THOUGH AS
SOME CONVECTION COULD SLIP INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST,
ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF, DURING MONDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE AXIS
REACHES OUR CWA. THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL BE KEY AS WE
CONTINUE TO RECOVER FROM A RATHER DRY AIRMASS THAT IS IN PLACE PRIOR
TO MONDAY. OVERALL, CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE AT LEAST LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS MONDAY. A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA ESPECIALLY MONDAY AS AN EXPANDING WARM SECTOR MOVES NORTH,
AND SOME INCREASE IN THE DEW POINTS WILL ALSO OCCUR.
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WE ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS A SHORT WAVE ALOFT AND SURFACE LOW TRACKS
TO OUR NORTH, WHICH WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE SOME. WHILE THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO STAY WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST,
SOME CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THIS APPEARS TO BE MAINLY
FOCUSED NEAR A LEE SIDE TROUGH IN THE PRESENCE OF A WARM/HOT AND
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE AND THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BREAKING DOWN ACROSS OUR AREA, ANY
CONVECTION COULD BE SLOW MOVING WHICH WOULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. AS OF NOW, THE WESTERN ZONES HAVE A HIGHER CHC OF CONVECTION
GIVEN THE FORECAST PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE AND ALSO A LEE SIDE
TROUGH. SOME PLACES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 90 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON.
THE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO 95 DEGREES
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE URBANIZED AREAS OF THE
PHILADELPHIA METRO. IT SHOULD BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST DUE TO A
SOUTHERLY FLOW.
FOR THURSDAY...IT LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT OF THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS AS
WE REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR, MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGS
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS FASTER
WITH THIS FRONT, HOWEVER WE WENT WITH THE WPC TIMING. ONCE AGAIN A
WARM TO EVEN HOT DAY IS ANTICIPATED, ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE A LITTLE
COOLER AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS SOME. SINCE A SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
FORECAST, IT SHOULD BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST. SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY INLAND, PROBABLY
FOCUSED ALONG A LEE SIDE TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...MOSTLY VFR PRIOR TO 12Z WITH A LIGHT W-NW WIND. ANY REMAINING
MVFR FOG SE NJ SOON DISSIPATES. THEN AFTER 12Z...VFR CLEAR BECOMING
SCT-BKN AOA 6000 FT THIS AFTN WITH THE SLIGHT CHC OF A WLY 38KT
GUSTY SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. GENERALLY
GRADIENT WLY GUSTS 20 KT THIS MORNING INCREASE TO 25-33 KT THIS
AFTN.
TONIGHT...VFR CLEAR. THIN CIRRUS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE SATURDAY.
WSHIFT TO 20-25KT GUSTY NNW THIS EVENING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, FIRST
NEAR I-80 AROUND 00Z REACHING KPHL/KACY AROUND 03-05Z.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, BECOMING WEST-
SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY...VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS, THEN DIMINISHING SOME
AT NIGHT.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING MONDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS MAINLY AROUND
10 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
SAFE BOATING WEEK CONCLUDES TODAY. OUR FINAL PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT FOR THIS SEASON POSTED AT 408 AM WITH THE SOCIAL MEDIA
POST AROUND 8AM. I DID GO AHEAD AND ADD THE NEW USCG SAFETY APP TO
MY SMART PHONE, JUST IN CASE IT COMES IN HANDY VIA MARINE RELATED
TALKS/INTERVIEWS.
THE FORECAST...
SCA VCNTY 44009 EARLY TODAY WITH SEAS NOW RESPONDING.
WINDS ON DELAWARE BAY UP A LITTLE MORE THAN ANTICIPATED AND IF
THIS CONTINUES MAY START THE SCA BACK TO WHERE WE HAD IT, THIS
MORNING. RIGHT NOW, NO CHANGE.
OTRW...SCA ALL OTHER WATERS WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT PERIOD OF 2P-
MIDNIGHT. WLY WIND GST 25-30 KT THIS AFTN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THEN JUST AFT OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WIND SHIFT TO NNW THIS
EVENING. STRONGEST WIND NEAR THE SHORE WHERE ITS WARMER AND BETTER
MIXING-MOMENTUM TRANSFER.
WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD SUNRISE SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING SATURDAY AND THEN
BECOMING SOUTHWEST TOWARD EVENING. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES
SUNDAY AND SHOULD INCREASE SOME, HOWEVER OVERALL THE CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF 10-20 KNOTS IS
ANTICIPATED WITHIN A WARM/HOT AIRMASS. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE HIGHER
WINDS CLOSER TO THE COAST. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY MONDAY. SEAS AT OR BELOW 4 FEET, ALTHOUGH THESE
MAY NEAR 5 FEET TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE IN
MUCH OF OUR REGION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER, YESTERDAYS RAINFALL IS
FORECAST TO KEEP FINE FUEL MOISTURE FROM FALLING BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE GREEN-UP IS NOT COMPLETE, MOST
NOTABLY THE PINE BARRENS. AS A RESULT, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
POTENTIAL HEAT WAVE NEXT WEEK. THIS PLUS WATER TEMPS CONTINUING ABOVE
NORMAL IS NOT GOOD FOR SAFETY. ONCE IT TURNS HOT AND BEACHES ARE
UNGUARDED, SWIMMERS MAY TAKE CHANCES AT UNGUARDED LOCATIONS. BE SMART
ABOUT ANY SWIMMING EARLY THIS SEASON.
RIP CURRENT AWARENESS WEEK FOR MT HOLLY IS JUNE 7-13 WITH PSAS
VIA PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS, SOCIAL MEDIA, NOAA WEATHER
RADIO AND ANY MEDIA INTERVIEWS DESIRED (CONTACT OFFICE).
FOR RIP CURRENTS: DESPITE ANTICIPATED PROJECTIONS OF LOW OR
MODERATE RISK THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND, EARLY SEASON
FATALITIES OCCUR WHEN SWIMMING AT UNGUARDED TIMES/LOCATIONS.
WEAKER SWIMMERS OR SWIMMING IN AREAS WHERE RIP CURRENTS ARE
STRONGER (JETTIES) CAN QUICKLY BECOME LIFE THREATENING. WHEN
TRAINED LIFEGUARDS ARE NOT NEARBY, TIMELY RESCUE IS MUCH LESS
LIKELY. LETS GET THROUGH THE MONTH OF MAY WITH ALL SWIMMERS SAFE!
PLEASE BROADCAST THIS MESSAGE: FOR ULTIMATE SAFETY, ALWAYS SWIM
IN THE PRESENCE OF LIFE GUARDS! THANK YOU!
&&
.CLIMATE...
**LITTLE DOUBT THAT A TOP 10 WARMEST WILL OCCUR IN LARGE PORTIONS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA**
THE FIRST 21 DAYS OF MAY IN OUR FORECAST AREA WERE AVERAGING
ABOUT 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
RUNNING THE NUMBERS FROM THIS MORNINGS 330AM FCST THROUGH THE
28TH AND THE 00Z/22 FTPRHA (GFS MOS) FOR THE LAST 3 DAYS BEYOND
OUR WFO RESPONSIBILITY (29-31) WE FIND THE FOLLOWING.
FOR PHILADELPHIA...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1874.
PROJECTING A MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 69 TO 70, AT LEAST 5
TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HEADING FOR SECOND OR THIRD WARMEST ON
RECORD. WARMEST WAS 70.8 IN 1991. THEN 69.2 2004.
FOR ALLENTOWN...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1922. PROJECTING
65.9 OR ABOUT 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WHICH WOULD BE 4TH-5TH
WARMEST ON RECORD. 1991 WAS THE WARMEST WITH 67.2, FOLLOWED BY
2012 66.1, THEN 1944 WHEN MAY AVERAGED 66.0 AND FINALLY THE 2004
65.9 DEGREE AVG. THE NEXT WARMEST WAS 65.3 IN 1939.
THE FOLLOWING WAS POSTED BECAUSE ITS LIKELY THAT WE WILL
EXPERIENCE OUR FIRST 90 IN PHILADELPHIA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, AND POSSIBLY A HEAT WAVE.
NORMAL FIRST DATE OF 90 OR HIGHER.
PHILADELPHIA MAY 29
ALLENTOWN MAY 30
WILMINGTON JUNE 4
ATLANTIC CITY JUNE 11.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ450>453.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ454-
455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG 605
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 605
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 605
FIRE WEATHER...605
RIP CURRENTS...605
CLIMATE...605
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1205 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015
TEMPERATURES ARE RECOVERING QUICKLY WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...BUT
CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO CREEP INTO THE FAR WESTERN CWA.
HAVE MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...GOING WITH MID
70S EVERYWHERE. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS
THE HRRR IS HINTING AT UPPER 70S OVER THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THICKENING UP DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO THIS
MAY HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015
A BEAUTIFUL SPRING DAY EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS IL WITH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF SUNSHINE AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND MILD HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR I-88 IN NORTHERN IL EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL DURING THIS MORNING AND
THROUGH SOUTHEAST IL DURING THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE IF ANY LIFT OR
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO EXPECT THIS FRONT TO SHIFT BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A WEAK WIND SHIFT FROM THE SW TO THE NW. CIRRUS CLOUDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS SUNNY
SKIES THIS MORNING BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON.
NUDGED HIGHS UP SLIGHTLY TODAY INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH AREAS FROM I-74 NE SLIGHTLY COOLER.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015
NICE WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS IL DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AS DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES SATURDAY WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOSES INTO THE MS RIVER
VALLEY. THIS TO MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SKIES TRENDING TOWARD PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH HIGHS SAT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S.
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF/LOW DIGGING OVER THE ROCKIES DURING THIS
WEEKEND TO EJECT SHORT WAVES NE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SAT NIGHT
AND INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
EMERGES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY AND LIFTS UP INTO THE UPPER
MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY. A WARM FRONT TO LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL SUNDAY MORNING. THIS TO BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT
AND THEN LIKELY CHANCES WEST OF I-57 SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND 40-
50% CHANCE OVER EASTERN IL SUNDAY FROM I-57 EAST. MORE HUMID ON
SUNDAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AS
DEWPOINTS ELEVATE INTO THE MID 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S CENTRAL IL AND NEAR 80F IN SOUTHEAST IL. SPC KEEPS
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SW OF CENTRAL IL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE DURING PEAK HEATING.
EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WORK WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STAYS NW OF IL THROUGH AT LEAST WED AND POSSIBLY
LONGER. CONTINUE LIKELY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80F AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. BREEZY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR.
CONTINUED GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AND WARM HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. CPC 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM MAY 29 THRU JUNE 4 CONTINUES 40-
50% CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION. SO A
WARM AND WET PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF
JUNE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ON TAP THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD
IN THIS AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY LOWER TO AROUND 10KFT THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT...BEFORE A SOUTHERLY WIND PICKS
UP LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEELHART
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...GEELHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
944 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015
TEMPERATURES ARE RECOVERING QUICKLY WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...BUT
CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO CREEP INTO THE FAR WESTERN CWA.
HAVE MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...GOING WITH MID
70S EVERYWHERE. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS
THE HRRR IS HINTING AT UPPER 70S OVER THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THICKENING UP DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO THIS
MAY HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015
A BEAUTIFUL SPRING DAY EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS IL WITH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF SUNSHINE AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND MILD HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR I-88 IN NORTHERN IL EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL DURING THIS MORNING AND
THROUGH SOUTHEAST IL DURING THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE IF ANY LIFT OR
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO EXPECT THIS FRONT TO SHIFT BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A WEAK WIND SHIFT FROM THE SW TO THE NW. CIRRUS CLOUDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS SUNNY
SKIES THIS MORNING BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON.
NUDGED HIGHS UP SLIGHTLY TODAY INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH AREAS FROM I-74 NE SLIGHTLY COOLER.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015
NICE WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS IL DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AS DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES SATURDAY WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOSES INTO THE MS RIVER
VALLEY. THIS TO MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SKIES TRENDING TOWARD PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH HIGHS SAT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S.
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF/LOW DIGGING OVER THE ROCKIES DURING THIS
WEEKEND TO EJECT SHORT WAVES NE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SAT NIGHT
AND INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
EMERGES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY AND LIFTS UP INTO THE UPPER
MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY. A WARM FRONT TO LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL SUNDAY MORNING. THIS TO BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT
AND THEN LIKELY CHANCES WEST OF I-57 SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND 40-
50% CHANCE OVER EASTERN IL SUNDAY FROM I-57 EAST. MORE HUMID ON
SUNDAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AS
DEWPOINTS ELEVATE INTO THE MID 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S CENTRAL IL AND NEAR 80F IN SOUTHEAST IL. SPC KEEPS
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SW OF CENTRAL IL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE DURING PEAK HEATING.
EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WORK WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STAYS NW OF IL THROUGH AT LEAST WED AND POSSIBLY
LONGER. CONTINUE LIKELY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80F AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. BREEZY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR.
CONTINUED GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AND WARM HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. CPC 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM MAY 29 THRU JUNE 4 CONTINUES 40-
50% CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION. SO A
WARM AND WET PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF
JUNE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24HRS AS
PREDOMINANT SUBSIDENCE RESIDES OVER CENTRAL IL WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE...THEN BECOME NE AT
4-8 KTS AFTER A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEELHART
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...AUTEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
317 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
TONIGHT...AND AFTER A CHILLY START SATURDAY MORNING...HIGHS WILL
REACH THE LOWER 70S WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015
CLEAR AND DRY WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER TROF
SWEPT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNIGN AND DEWPOINTS DROPPED 15 TO
18 DEGREES. THIS IS NOTED ON SURFACE ANAYLSIS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S ALONG THE SOUTHERN CWA BORDER...WHILE DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE NORTH
ARE IN THE LOWER 30S. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE...WITH A SLIGT
EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN THE COOLER/DRIER AIR
OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FROST IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES. HRRR AND WRF BOTH SUGGEST
THAT BOUDNARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...SO
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP PATCHY FROST OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR THE AFTERNOON
UPDATE.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015
MODELS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SLOW APPROACHING SYSTEM FOR LATE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. UPPER LOW HAS MOVED ONSHORE OVER SOUTHERN CA
AND WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...BERMUDA HIGH OVER
ATLANTIC WILL STRENGTHEN AND BUILD TOWARD SOUTHEAST COAST. RESULT
WILL BE RISING HEIGHTS OVER MIDWEST WITH BUILDING SHORT WAVE RIDGE.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMER AND MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT BY LATE WEEKEND
AND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. NO STRONG SIGNAL FOR WIDESPREAD PCPN
DEVELOPMENT BUT ANY SUBTLE SYNOPTIC SCALE SHORT WAVES OR
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED WAVE COULD EASILY GENERATE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BEGINNING SUNDAY GIVEN HIGH PWATS AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. SMALL SCALE DETAILS REMAIN DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN
WITH QUITE A BIT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY AND DISAGREEMENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GENERAL ENSEMBLE BLEND APPROACH USED FOR POPS AND TEMPS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH SUPERBLEND PREFERRED. DID LOWER
SUPERBLEND POPS SEVERAL PERIODS WITH THE UNCERTAINTY BUT LEFT LOW
END LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY IN THE WEST. STAYED MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
WITH TEMPS GIVEN POSSIBILITY OF COOLER WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN OR
WARMER WITH LACK OF PCPN AND POTENTIAL MIXING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LEWIS
SHORT TERM...LEWIS
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...LEWIS
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
248 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS CLOSED LOW OVER
THE SW US...WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE/NORTHEAST COLORADO. SATELLITE SHOWS CLEARING
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE SW PART OF THE CWA...WITH STRATUS/SHOWERS
TRANSITIONING NORTHWARDS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO
FIRE ALONG PALMER DIVING ALONG NORTHERN EXTENT OF SURFACE LOW IN
EASTERN COLORADO.
REGARDING SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
CLEARING TAKING PLACE IN THE SW RAP AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATED
500-1500 J/KG OF SB CAPE ALREADY DEVELOPING...AND GUIDANCE WOULD
FAVOR THIS DEVELOPING INTO THE SW PART OF THE CWA (ASSOCIATED WITH
CLEARING. GOOD VEERING PROFILES ARE IN PLACE ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF
THE SURFACE LOW WHERE RAP IS HINTING AT HELICITY VALUES APPROACHING
250 M2/S2 BY 00Z. ORGANIZED SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT SEEMS TO BE
TIED TO THIS SURFACE LOW AND WOULD FAVOR THE SOUTHWEST PART OF OUR
CWA. DEEP SPEED SHEER CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AND GUIDANCE INDICATES
AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MU CAPE (POSSIBLY HIGHER IF NAM IS TO BE
TRUSTED). STRONG ISENTROPIC SIGNAL CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME
PERIOD...AND SEVERAL LOBES OF VORTICITY AND OMEGA ROTATE THROUGH
THE REGION. THIS SHOULD COMBINE TO CREATE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY A SEVERE HAIL THREAT IF WE SEE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. NOT AS SURE ABOUT WIND THREAT CONSIDERING THE
PROFILES AND STABLE LOWER LEVELS.
FOG/STRATUS/DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE ALL NIGHT WITH GOOD BL MOISTURE
FLUX THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING EASTWARD. WITH BETTER
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM/DRIZZLE COVERAGE DENSE FOG MAY NOT BE AS MUCH OF
A CONCERN DUE TO THE INCREASE IN MIXING. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS
LESS MIXING WOULD RESULT IN DENSE FOG DUE TO THE LONG FETCH
UPSLOPE/MAGNITUDE OF MOISTURE ADVECTION.
GUIDANCES SHOWS TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SATURDAY
MORNING...ONE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER DEVELOPING INTO
NORTHERN COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE H3 JET BEGINS TO SHIFT
EASTWARD. THERE SEEMS TO BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES LIKELY DUE TO SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE...AND NAM IS REALLY
HITTING THIS DRY PERIOD HARDER COMPARED TO GFS/ECMWF. DECIDED OT
TIMING OUT THE LULL TO FAVOR LOWER POPS SAT MORNING...BEFORE
COVERAGE REDEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON. BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL IS AGAIN
IN EASTERN COLORADO BY MID AFTERNOON. CAPE PROFILES ARE MUCH MORE
ROBUST ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA...AS WELL AS GOOD SHEER. AS A
RESULT WE WILL PROBABLY SEE A BETTER SEVERE THREAT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THAN TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015
THE SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW OVER UT/CO AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT NOT BEFORE SWINGING SEVERAL MORE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
AROUND ITS PERIPHERY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE PATTERN WILL
BE SOMEWHAT LESS ACTIVE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL A BIT MORE OF THE HIT-AND-MISS VARIETY
BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WEST TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. OVERALL...THE LONG RANGE PERIOD WILL BE ONE OF DECREASING
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO SEASONAL
NORMS IN THE 70S/LOW 80S FOR HIGHS AND 50S FOR LOWS.
TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THERE IS DECENT POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN COLORADO AND A SURFACE DRYLINE SETS UP OVER
EC/SE COLORADO. A 100 KT 250 MB JET STREAK WILL BE RUNNING UP THE
EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE C0-KS BORDER DURING PEAK
HEATING...AND WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE...A ROUND
OF SEVERE STORMS SEEMS PROBABLE IN EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN
KANSAS. STORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTH INTO NEBRASKA DURING THE
EVENING.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...THE TAIL END OF THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH
WILL FINALLY SWING THROUGH THE AREA SO CONTINUED CHANCE POPS AS A
RESULT. WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS FEATURE ON MONDAY WILL PROVIDE
A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE ONSLAUGHT OF RECENT PRECIPITATION.
MID WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A QUASI ZONAL FLOW WITH A FEW
WEAK EMBEDDED TROUGH WHICH WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS BUT OTHERWISE ACCOMPANIED BY TEMPERATURES MORE
TYPICAL OF LATE MAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015
VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND LARGE SCALE SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL RESULT
IN SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...FOG...AND LOW STRATUS POTENTIAL AT
BOTH TAF SITES. CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED IN LIFR FOG DUE TO
POTENTIAL FOR PATTERN TO FAVOR STRATUS/PRECIP AND THIS COULD KEEP
VIS IN THE 1-3SM RANGE (FAVORED BY CURRENT STATISTICAL GUIDANCE).
I COULD SEE TEMPORARY DROPS BELOW ONE MILE IN THE 08-13Z
TIMEFRAME...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS JUST TOO LOW TO PREVAIL. IN IN
CASE PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
153 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015
BASED ON THE LATEST OBS AND WEB CAMERA IMAGES...HAVE BEEFED UP THE
FOG FURTHER IN THE GRIDS ADDING DENSE TO THE VALLEYS AND SOME
RIDGES. AS A RESULT...ALSO ISSUED AN SPS FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG THAT
NOW RUNS THROUGH 9:30 AM. SENT OUT AN UPDATED SET OF ZONES WITH A
PRE FIRST PERIOD FOR THE FOG. FINALLY...FOR THE GRIDS...TWEAKED
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND SOUTHEAST. THIS HAS HELPED TO CLEAR THE SKIES THROUGH EASTERN
KENTUCKY AS A NARROW BAND OF LOWER CLOUDS IS HOLDING ON NEAR THE
VIRGINIA BORDER. PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE VALLEYS EARLY
THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE CLEARING AND LEFT OVER GROUND
MOISTURE. IN ADDITION...A FEW PATCHES OF DENSE FOG ARE NOTED IN
THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY AND ALSO ON SOME OF THE RIDGES. WILL MONITOR
THIS VIA THE OBS AND WEB CAMS FOR A POSSIBLE SPS OR NPW THIS
MORNING. AT A MINIMUM...THE PATCHES OF DENSE FOG WILL BE
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE MORNING PORTION OF THE FORTHCOMING HWO.
READINGS ARE RATHER CHILLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 40S WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY A DEGREE OR SO LOWER THAN
DRY BULB TEMPS AMID LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH A DEPARTING TROUGH TO
THE NORTHEAST EARLY TODAY FOLLOWED BY RISING HEIGHTS AS A RIDGE
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE NATION. A BAND OF WEAK
MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL LIFT THROUGH KENTUCKY AND INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT DURING THIS TRANSITION...BEFORE THE RIDGE
SHARPENS OVER EAST KENTUCKY ON SATURDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT
HAVE FAVORED THE NAM12 AND HRRR FOR WX DETAILS DUE TO THEIR
HIGHER RESOLUTION.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A PLEASANT 48 HOURS AND BEYOND...
ONCE THIS MORNING/S VALLEY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...BREAKS UP BY 10
AM. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER EACH DAY WITH A DECENT RIDGE
VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT MILDER FOR MOST
PLACES THAN EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN LATER
TODAY AND CONTINUE TO BUILD ON SATURDAY AS A MOSTLY DRY FRONT
SETTLES INTO THE AREA. A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT TONIGHT
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AS THAT FRONT INITIALLY APPROACHES
BEFORE THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE CWA BY
SATURDAY MORNING.
USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD AND WIND
GRIDS THROUGH TODAY BEFORE FOLLOWING TO THE SUPERBLEND. DID MAKE
SOME MODERATE TERRAIN BASED CHANGES TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM MINIMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...IN
LINE WITH MOS GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015
THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING WARM AND DRY WEATHER
TO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY. IT
LOOKS AS IF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS WILL BE FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN APPROACHING MID LATITUDE
CYCLONE. THE WARM WEATHER WOULD BE IN RESPONSE TO PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF A STRONG NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT.
SHOULD THE MODELS HOLD TRUE...WE WOULD SEE THE RIDGE BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS A LARGE STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FIRST PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS WARM MOIST AIR OFF THE
GULF OF MEXICO BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH WHAT LOOKS LIKE A PRE FRONTAL
TROUGH. THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT INCHES TOWARD THE AREA. THE MODEL DATA
SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION...AND PERHAPS EVEN STALLS OUT FOR A
TIME. THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
WARM WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED WILL LIKELY BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
SUBSIDENCE WARMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MENTIONED EARLIER IN THIS DISCUSSION. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT
IN THE LOWER 80S THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015
A FEW DIURNAL CLOUDS HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SHOULD
POSE LITTLE TO NO THREAT TO TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IS IN CONTROL WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...AND PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE. AS WE HEAD INTO THE NIGHT...LINGERING MOISTURE COULD
LEAD TO SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NEAR BODIES
OF WATER. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING IF THIS FOG WILL
MAKE IT INTO THE TAF SITES...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
REMOVE FROM PREVIOUS TAFS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF FOG
THAT OCCURRED THE NIGHT BEFORE. EXPECT A SIMILAR SET UP DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW TO THAT OF TODAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW DIURNAL MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THE ONLY CAVEAT
WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST AS
WELL.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
639 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015
BASED ON THE LATEST OBS AND WEB CAMERA IMAGES...HAVE BEEFED UP THE
FOG FURTHER IN THE GRIDS ADDING DENSE TO THE VALLEYS AND SOME
RIDGES. AS A RESULT...ALSO ISSUED AN SPS FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG THAT
NOW RUNS THROUGH 9:30 AM. SENT OUT AN UPDATED SET OF ZONES WITH A
PRE FIRST PERIOD FOR THE FOG. FINALLY...FOR THE GRIDS...TWEAKED
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND SOUTHEAST. THIS HAS HELPED TO CLEAR THE SKIES THROUGH EASTERN
KENTUCKY AS A NARROW BAND OF LOWER CLOUDS IS HOLDING ON NEAR THE
VIRGINIA BORDER. PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE VALLEYS EARLY
THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE CLEARING AND LEFT OVER GROUND
MOISTURE. IN ADDITION...A FEW PATCHES OF DENSE FOG ARE NOTED IN
THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY AND ALSO ON SOME OF THE RIDGES. WILL MONITOR
THIS VIA THE OBS AND WEB CAMS FOR A POSSIBLE SPS OR NPW THIS
MORNING. AT A MINIMUM...THE PATCHES OF DENSE FOG WILL BE
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE MORNING PORTION OF THE FORTHCOMING HWO.
READINGS ARE RATHER CHILLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 40S WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY A DEGREE OR SO LOWER THAN
DRY BULB TEMPS AMID LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH A DEPARTING TROUGH TO
THE NORTHEAST EARLY TODAY FOLLOWED BY RISING HEIGHTS AS A RIDGE
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE NATION. A BAND OF WEAK
MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL LIFT THROUGH KENTUCKY AND INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT DURING THIS TRANSITION...BEFORE THE RIDGE
SHARPENS OVER EAST KENTUCKY ON SATURDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT
HAVE FAVORED THE NAM12 AND HRRR FOR WX DETAILS DUE TO THEIR
HIGHER RESOLUTION.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A PLEASANT 48 HOURS AND BEYOND...
ONCE THIS MORNING/S VALLEY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...BREAKS UP BY 10
AM. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER EACH DAY WITH A DECENT RIDGE
VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT MILDER FOR MOST
PLACES THAN EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN LATER
TODAY AND CONTINUE TO BUILD ON SATURDAY AS A MOSTLY DRY FRONT
SETTLES INTO THE AREA. A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT TONIGHT
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AS THAT FRONT INITIALLY APPROACHES
BEFORE THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE CWA BY
SATURDAY MORNING.
USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD AND WIND
GRIDS THROUGH TODAY BEFORE FOLLOWING TO THE SUPERBLEND. DID MAKE
SOME MODERATE TERRAIN BASED CHANGES TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM MINIMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...IN
LINE WITH MOS GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015
THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING WARM AND DRY WEATHER
TO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY. IT
LOOKS AS IF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS WILL BE FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN APPROACHING MID LATITUDE
CYCLONE. THE WARM WEATHER WOULD BE IN RESPONSE TO PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF A STRONG NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT.
SHOULD THE MODELS HOLD TRUE...WE WOULD SEE THE RIDGE BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS A LARGE STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FIRST PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS WARM MOIST AIR OFF THE
GULF OF MEXICO BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH WHAT LOOKS LIKE A PRE FRONTAL
TROUGH. THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT INCHES TOWARD THE AREA. THE MODEL DATA
SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION...AND PERHAPS EVEN STALLS OUT FOR A
TIME. THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
WARM WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED WILL LIKELY BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
SUBSIDENCE WARMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MENTIONED EARLIER IN THIS DISCUSSION. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT
IN THE LOWER 80S THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015
DUE TO DAMP GROUNDS AND CLEARING SKIES OCCASIONAL LIFR OR LOWER
VIS FROM FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES EXCEPT SYM THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. ONCE THE PATCHY DENSE FOG BURNS OFF BY
14Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE BULK OF TONIGHT...
THOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AT THE LOWER TAF
SITES BY DAWN SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
349 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND SOUTHEAST. THIS HAS HELPED TO CLEAR THE SKIES THROUGH EASTERN
KENTUCKY AS A NARROW BAND OF LOWER CLOUDS IS HOLDING ON NEAR THE
VIRGINIA BORDER. PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE VALLEYS EARLY
THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE CLEARING AND LEFT OVER GROUND
MOISTURE. IN ADDITION...A FEW PATCHES OF DENSE FOG ARE NOTED IN
THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY AND ALSO ON SOME OF THE RIDGES. WILL MONITOR
THIS VIA THE OBS AND WEB CAMS FOR A POSSIBLE SPS OR NPW THIS
MORNING. AT A MINIMUM...THE PATCHES OF DENSE FOG WILL BE
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE MORNING PORTION OF THE FORTHCOMING HWO.
READINGS ARE RATHER CHILLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 40S WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY A DEGREE OR SO LOWER THAN
DRY BULB TEMPS AMID LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH A DEPARTING TROUGH TO
THE NORTHEAST EARLY TODAY FOLLOWED BY RISING HEIGHTS AS A RIDGE
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE NATION. A BAND OF WEAK
MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL LIFT THROUGH KENTUCKY AND INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT DURING THIS TRANSITION...BEFORE THE RIDGE
SHARPENS OVER EAST KENTUCKY ON SATURDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT
HAVE FAVORED THE NAM12 AND HRRR FOR WX DETAILS DUE TO THEIR
HIGHER RESOLUTION.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A PLEASANT 48 HOURS AND BEYOND...
ONCE THIS MORNING/S VALLEY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...BREAKS UP BY 10
AM. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER EACH DAY WITH A DECENT RIDGE
VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT MILDER FOR MOST
PLACES THAN EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN LATER
TODAY AND CONTINUE TO BUILD ON SATURDAY AS A MOSTLY DRY FRONT
SETTLES INTO THE AREA. A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT TONIGHT
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AS THAT FRONT INITIALLY APPROACHES
BEFORE THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE CWA BY
SATURDAY MORNING.
USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD AND WIND
GRIDS THROUGH TODAY BEFORE FOLLOWING TO THE SUPERBLEND. DID MAKE
SOME MODERATE TERRAIN BASED CHANGES TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM MINIMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...IN
LINE WITH MOS GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015
THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING WARM AND DRY WEATHER
TO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY. IT
LOOKS AS IF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS WILL BE FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN APPROACHING MID LATITUDE
CYCLONE. THE WARM WEATHER WOULD BE IN RESPONSE TO PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF A STRONG NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT.
SHOULD THE MODELS HOLD TRUE...WE WOULD SEE THE RIDGE BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS A LARGE STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FIRST PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS WARM MOIST AIR OFF THE
GULF OF MEXICO BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH WHAT LOOKS LIKE A PRE FRONTAL
TROUGH. THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT INCHES TOWARD THE AREA. THE MODEL DATA
SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION...AND PERHAPS EVEN STALLS OUT FOR A
TIME. THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
WARM WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED WILL LIKELY BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
SUBSIDENCE WARMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MENTIONED EARLIER IN THIS DISCUSSION. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT
IN THE LOWER 80S THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015
VFR CIGS AND VIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A PERIOD OF BR AT MOST SITES
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO DAMP GROUNDS AND CLEARING SKIES.
OCCASIONAL LIFR OR LOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SITE JKL THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. ONCE THE PATCHY FOG BURNS OFF BY 13Z...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
908 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
.DISCUSSION...
INCREDIBLE RAINFALL OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS
AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
HELPING TO DRIVE THESE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES NORTH AND EAST
INTO THIS REGION. 00Z RAOB FROM FWD SHOWING A NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE THIS EVENING AND WITH STRONG DIVERGENT
FLOW ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A NEARLY 100KT UPPER
LEVEL JET ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY...YOU HAVE ALL THE INGREDIENTS
NECESSARY FOR AN EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT THROUGH THE
NIGHT. IN FACT...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN
OVERNIGHT...I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE THE FLOODING TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND FURTHER SOUTH
INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA OR INTO THE MIDDLE RED RIVER BASIN...
EXACTLY WHERE THE RAINFALL IS NOT NEEDED.
THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHEN WILL THIS PRECIPITATION BEGIN
TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE INTO OUR REGION. LATEST OOZ WRF AND
ACCOMPANYING HRRR ARE WANTING TO KEEP A BULK OF THIS PRECIPITATION
OUT OF OUR REGION UNTIL 12Z WHEN THEY FINALLY BEGIN TO BRING SOME
SORT OF LINEAR CONVECTION INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES. GIVEN THAT THE
COLD POOL THAT WAS GENERATED EARLIER WITH THE CENTRAL OK CONVECTION
HAS ALL BUT STALLED WITH THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY HAVING MET UP WITH
IT JUST NORTH OF THE RED RIVER...THIS LATER SCENARIO SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE.
OUR FLASH FLOOD WATCH BEGINS AT 4 AM AND THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH
GOING ON ACROSS OUR REGION AT THAT TIME...EXCEPT MAYBE ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR. WILL ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION
HOWEVER AND KEEP EVERYTHING AS IS CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THE
WATCH AND THE OVERNIGHT POP FORECAST. MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER IS
WIDESPREAD AND WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE LOWER CEILINGS DEVELOP FROM
THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT AS WELL. GIVEN THE STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE...WOULD NOT EXPECT TO SEE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
FALL TOO MUCH MORE BUT THAT COULD CHANGE IF WE BEGIN TO SEE SOONER
THAN EXPECTED RAINFALL. THEREFORE WILL KEEP CURRENT MIN FCST AS
IS.
NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE CURRENT FCST ATTM.
13
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 754 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
AVIATION...
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LULL OVERNIGHT...BUT INCREASING BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE WILL BRING LOW CIGS BACK TO AREA TERMINALS AFTER
06Z. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE PD...AS CONVECTION
BECOMES WIDESPREAD BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SELY
WINDS AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING SUNDAY. /12/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 71 81 69 81 / 40 80 80 80
MLU 70 85 70 81 / 30 60 80 70
DEQ 68 75 67 79 / 70 90 80 80
TXK 70 79 69 80 / 60 80 80 80
ELD 69 82 69 80 / 40 70 80 70
TYR 71 77 70 80 / 60 80 70 80
GGG 71 79 70 81 / 50 80 70 80
LFK 73 79 72 81 / 40 80 70 80
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR LAZ001>004-010>012-017-018.
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR OKZ077.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
&&
$$
12/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
1254 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KHUM...WHERE MVFR
CEILINGS CONTINUE. ALTHOUGH IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS IS
ANTICIPATED...CONDITIONS MAY NOT GO VFR AT KHUM UNTIL AROUND
SUNSET. WITH LOWER DEW POINTS IN PLACE...FOG MAY NOT BE MUCH OF AN
ISSUE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF KHUM. EVEN
THERE...DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH WORSE THAN MVFR VISIBILITIES. AS
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS ON SATURDAY...COULD SEE SOME CLOUDS DEVELOP
NEAR/ABOVE 850 MB...FL050 BY LATE MORNING. 35
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 929 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/
UPDATE...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFF THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST TAKING THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH WITH THE
BOUNDARY. AN ELEVATED BOUNDARY WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS THE FOCUS
FOR SOME SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL RETURN BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATER TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY TOMORROW...HOWEVER SOME OF THE MODELS LIKE THE GFS
APPEAR TOO AGGRESSIVE BRINGING THE FRONT BACK NORTH TO THE I-10/12
CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE
DEWPOINTS ARE STILL DROPPING IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COASTAL AREAS.
A BLEND OF THE HRRR AND HIRES WRF MODELS SUGGEST THE ONLY
LOCATIONS THAT MAY SEE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AND A BLEND OF THE GFS,,,NAM...SREF...AND ECMWF ONLY
SHOW SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES A BIT FURTHER NORTH ALLOWING FOR SOME
SHALLOW ELEVATED CAPE TAKING ADVANTAGE OF SOME ISENTROPIC
LIFT/WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE SHALLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
GIVEN THESE FACTORS AND THOSE MENTIONED IN THE SOUNDING
DISCUSSION...HAVE CUT BACK THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDER TODAY AND
LOWERED THE RAIN CHANCES IN MANY LOCATIONS.
22/TD
SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
REFRESHING BREEZES FROM THE NORTHEAST IN THE LOWEST 1500 FEET WERE
DELIVERING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO MOST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOUISIANA COASTAL PARISHES. THESE NORTHEAST
WINDS HAVE PUSHED THE FRONT JUST OFFSHORE WHERE THERE IS ONGOING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WITH THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE ABOVE
1.75 INCHES. ELEVATED TEMPERATURE INVERSION OF 5C CAPS OFF THE LOW
LEVEL COOLER AIR...WHICH ALONG WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY
/FORECAST CAPE AND LI/ SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ABOVE 1500 FEET HAVE A WESTERLY COMPONENT AND A
PEAK WIND SPEED OF 59 KNOTS WAS AT 43000 FEET.
12Z BALLOON INFO: A ROUTINE FLIGHT WITH THE ASCENT LASTING 92
MINUTES THIS MORNING. THE BALLOON TRAVELLED 20 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM
THE OFFICE BURSTING EAST OF STENNIS SPACE CENTER AT A HEIGHT OF 21
MILES ABOVE THE GROUND.
ANSORGE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/
SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE MAP REVEALED A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST TO BIG BEND FLORIDA TO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COASTAL
WATERS TO SOUTH TEXAS. IN ADDITION...A 1023MB HIGH WAS LOCATED OF
THE MID SOUTH AND ABOUT A 4MB CHANGE FROM THE MCCOMB TO MS DELTA.
NORTH WINDS OF 5 TO 12 KNOTS WERE COMMON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. MORE SO...DEWPOINT READINGS RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S OVER SOUTHWEST MS TO NEAR 70 NEAR MS DELTA. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUE PLOTS SHOWED A MOISTURE AXIS ALONG TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
COAST WITH VALUES OF 1.6 TO 1.75 INCHES. UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOWED A
LOW OVER SOUTH CALI...A HIGH OVER MEXICO...DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER
WEST TEXAS AND WEAK WEST FLOW OVER LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 18
DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE AXIS WILL POOL ALONG THE COAST...WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
DELTA TO SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. MID LAYER INSTABILITY IS PRESENT WITH THIS LAYER. AS A
RESULT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM IN THIS
GENERAL AREA. DRY AIR AND LESS MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES 1.4 TO 1.5
INCHES OVER MS COAST AND NORTH OF TIDAL LAKES WILL HAMPER
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LOWER
1000-700MB FROM 3025M TO 2990M ACROSS NORTH ZONES AND 3020M TODAY.
THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER WILL HAMPER HIGH SUN ANGLE A
LITTLE BIT TO LOWER HIGHS ABOUT 4 TO 6 DEGREES TODAY. LOWER
DEWPOINTS AND LOWER THICKNESS WILL ALLOW EVENING AND NIGHT TIME
TEMPS ABOUT 6 TO 10 DEGREES FOR SOME LOCATIONS. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AND
YIELD A SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE PLAINS AND WEST PART OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HENCE...WEST ZONES WILL SEE INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES ON SATURDAY BUT DRY FOR MS COAST ON SATURDAY.
SUNDAY AND THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL HAVE A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST. THE MAIN LOW WILL TRACK WEST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUNDAY AND OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY. MOISTURE
WILL POOL AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY AND OPEN GULF WILL YIELD LIKELY RAIN CHANCES EACH
AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
ZONES. TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS BUT NOT AS SHARP LATTER
PART OF NEXT WEAK. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA.
THEREFORE...RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE BUT NOT MUCH FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. 18
MARINE...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING AND
STALL. AS THE FRONT ERODES...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO FRESHEN TO AROUND
15 THEN 15-20KT BY SAT NIGHT OR SUN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
DEVELOPING IN THE OKLAHOMA/NEBRASKA AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT
MAKE MUCH PROGRESS EASTWARD BUT IT WILL BE ABLE TO KICK OUT A FEW
PREFRONTAL TROUGHS THAT WILL CARRY SH/TS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY
TUESDAY. MODERATE WINDS OUT OF THE SE WILL REMAIN THROUGH WED
BEFORE EASING BACK TO A MORE MANAGEABLE 10KT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 80 64 86 70 / 10 10 30 20
BTR 81 69 86 72 / 10 10 40 20
ASD 81 67 86 72 / 10 10 20 20
MSY 80 73 86 75 / 20 10 30 20
GPT 82 69 85 75 / 10 10 20 20
PQL 82 63 86 72 / 10 10 10 20
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
929 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015
.UPDATE...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFF THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST TAKING THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH WITH THE
BOUNDARY. AN ELEVATED BOUNDARY WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS THE FOCUS
FOR SOME SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL RETURN BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATER TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY TOMORROW...HOWEVER SOME OF THE MODELS LIKE THE GFS
APPEAR TOO AGGRESSIVE BRINGING THE FRONT BACK NORTH TO THE I-10/12
CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE
DEWPOINTS ARE STILL DROPPING IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COASTAL AREAS.
A BLEND OF THE HRRR AND HIRES WRF MODELS SUGGEST THE ONLY
LOCATIONS THAT MAY SEE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AND A BLEND OF THE GFS,,,NAM...SREF...AND ECMWF ONLY
SHOW SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES A BIT FURTHER NORTH ALLOWING FOR SOME
SHALLOW ELEVATED CAPE TAKING ADVANTAGE OF SOME ISENTROPIC
LIFT/WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE SHALLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
GIVEN THESE FACTORS AND THOSE MENTIONED IN THE SOUNDING
DISCUSSION...HAVE CUT BACK THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDER TODAY AND
LOWERED THE RAIN CHANCES IN MANY LOCATIONS.
22/TD
&&
.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
REFRESHING BREEZES FROM THE NORTHEAST IN THE LOWEST 1500 FEET WERE
DELIVERING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO MOST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOUISIANA COASTAL PARISHES. THESE NORTHEAST
WINDS HAVE PUSHED THE FRONT JUST OFFSHORE WHERE THERE IS ONGOING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WITH THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE ABOVE
1.75 INCHES. ELEVATED TEMPERATURE INVERSION OF 5C CAPS OFF THE LOW
LEVEL COOLER AIR...WHICH ALONG WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY
/FORECAST CAPE AND LI/ SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ABOVE 1500 FEET HAVE A WESTERLY COMPONENT AND A
PEAK WIND SPEED OF 59 KNOTS WAS AT 43000 FEET.
12Z BALLOON INFO: A ROUTINE FLIGHT WITH THE ASCENT LASTING 92
MINUTES THIS MORNING. THE BALLOON TRAVELLED 20 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM
THE OFFICE BURSTING EAST OF STENNIS SPACE CENTER AT A HEIGHT OF 21
MILES ABOVE THE GROUND.
ANSORGE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/
SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE MAP REVEALED A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST TO BIG BEND FLORIDA TO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COASTAL
WATERS TO SOUTH TEXAS. IN ADDITION...A 1023MB HIGH WAS LOCATED OF
THE MID SOUTH AND ABOUT A 4MB CHANGE FROM THE MCCOMB TO MS DELTA.
NORTH WINDS OF 5 TO 12 KNOTS WERE COMMON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. MORE SO...DEWPOINT READINGS RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S OVER SOUTHWEST MS TO NEAR 70 NEAR MS DELTA. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUE PLOTS SHOWED A MOISTURE AXIS ALONG TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
COAST WITH VALUES OF 1.6 TO 1.75 INCHES. UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOWED A
LOW OVER SOUTH CALI...A HIGH OVER MEXICO...DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER
WEST TEXAS AND WEAK WEST FLOW OVER LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 18
DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE AXIS WILL POOL ALONG THE COAST...WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
DELTA TO SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. MID LAYER INSTABILITY IS PRESENT WITH THIS LAYER. AS A
RESULT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM IN THIS
GENERAL AREA. DRY AIR AND LESS MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES 1.4 TO 1.5
INCHES OVER MS COAST AND NORTH OF TIDAL LAKES WILL HAMPER
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LOWER
1000-700MB FROM 3025M TO 2990M ACROSS NORTH ZONES AND 3020M TODAY.
THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER WILL HAMPER HIGH SUN ANGLE A
LITTLE BIT TO LOWER HIGHS ABOUT 4 TO 6 DEGREES TODAY. LOWER
DEWPOINTS AND LOWER THICKNESS WILL ALLOW EVENING AND NIGHT TIME
TEMPS ABOUT 6 TO 10 DEGREES FOR SOME LOCATIONS. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AND
YIELD A SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE PLAINS AND WEST PART OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HENCE...WEST ZONES WILL SEE INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES ON SATURDAY BUT DRY FOR MS COAST ON SATURDAY.
SUNDAY AND THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL HAVE A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST. THE MAIN LOW WILL TRACK WEST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUNDAY AND OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY. MOISTURE
WILL POOL AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY AND OPEN GULF WILL YIELD LIKELY RAIN CHANCES EACH
AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
ZONES. TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS BUT NOT AS SHARP LATTER
PART OF NEXT WEAK. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA.
THEREFORE...RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE BUT NOT MUCH FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. 18
AVIATION...
CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 003 FOR ALL SITES. WILL ONLY SHOW
SMALL RESTRICTIONS DUE TO VIS THIS MORNING. SHOULD SEE MOST SITES
FREE OF ANY VCTS TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HUM AND POSSIBLY BTR.
WILL ONLY SHOW FOR HUM TODAY AS DRY AIR WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO BTR.
IF SOMETHING DEVELOPS AROUND BTR IT WILL BE TO THE WEST. CEILINGS
SHOULD STAY IN THE 020 AREA WITH SOME GROUPS OF 005 MOVING THROUGH
TONIGHT.
MARINE...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING
AND STALL. AS THE FRONT ERODES...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO FRESHEN TO
AROUND 15 THEN 15-20KT BY SAT NIGHT OR SUN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
DEVELOPING IN THE OKLAHOMA/NEBRASKA AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT MAKE
MUCH PROGRESS EASTWARD BUT IT WILL BE ABLE TO KICK OUT A FEW
PREFRONTAL TROUGHS THAT WILL CARRY SH/TS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY
TUESDAY. MODERATE WINDS OUT OF THE SE WILL REMAIN THROUGH WED BEFORE
EASING BACK TO A MORE MANAGEABLE 10KT BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.
.DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 80 64 86 70 / 10 10 30 20
BTR 81 69 86 72 / 10 20 40 20
ASD 81 67 86 72 / 10 10 20 20
MSY 80 73 86 75 / 20 20 30 20
GPT 82 69 85 75 / 10 10 20 20
PQL 82 63 86 72 / 10 10 10 20
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1202 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015
.AVIATION...
MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED ACROSS AREA
TERMINALS. FOR THE MOST PART...STRATUS AND DRIZZLE/FOG LOOK TO
CONTINUE OVER E TX/NW LA TERMINALS...WITH THE REMAINDER TO
CONTINUE UNDER MID LEVEL CLOUDS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE COMMON
AREAWIDE BY MID AFTERNOON LATER TODAY. OTHERWISE...LIGHT ELY TO
NELY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE SE AND E AT 5-10 KTS
THROUGHOUT THE PD. /12/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 942 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/
DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION FOR THE MOST PART HAS ENDED ACROSS THE FOUR STATE
REGION LATE THIS EVENING. SOME REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ACROSS NE
TX FROM THE I-20 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD SUGGESTS THAT THERE MAY STILL
BE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS ATTM. FOR THE
EVENING UPDATE...HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING BASICALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM TYR/GGG TO THE LOWER TOLEDO BEND
RESERVOIR. LATEST 00Z WRF OUTPUT DOES NOT GENERATE ANY PRECIP
ACROSS THIS REGION BUT THIS WILL BE A FAVORABLE REGION FOR WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS DO RETURN AT THE 8H LEVEL WHICH
WILL OVERRUN A NE WIND IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE LATEST HRRR OUTPUT
DOES SUGGEST SOME WEAK REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...DID LOWER OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS A DEGREE
OR TWO...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF NE TX/N LA
WHERE 02Z TEMPS WERE ONLY A DEGREE OR SO FROM FCST MINS. CLOUD
COVER HAS SCOURED OUT ACROSS OUR EXTREME NW ZONES BUT SHOULD FILL
IN OVERNIGHT WITH 7H MOISTURE.
OTHER CHANGES INCLUDED DEWPOINT/RH AND WIND GRIDS TO MIMIC CURRENT
AND EXPECTED CHANGES OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS IN
PRETTY GOOD SHAPE.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ATTM. PRELIMS ARE AS FOLLOWS...13.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/
DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST
THIS AFTERNOON...OUT OF THE ARKLATEX REGION. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE BRUNT OF THE
SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM LUFKIN EAST TO LOUISIANA. THIS SHOWERS
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING..WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
A TRANSITORY WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE ARKLATEX FOR
FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IN TIME...THINK THAT MOST OF THE REGION WILL
PROBABLY BE DRY...BUT HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOR WESTERN AREAS...AS SOME MOISTURE DOES
TRY TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM TEXAS. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST
ON SATURDAY...OPENING THE DOOR FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND.
THE PERIODS OF MOST CONCERN IN THE FORECAST ARE REALLY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...AS THE NEXT WEST COAST LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE US BEFORE PUSHING EAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH A DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF
THE MAIN TROUGH AIDS IN THE LIFT. THE MAIN TROUGH THEN SHIFTS EAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.6 AND 2.1 INCHES DURING THIS
TIME...MEANING THAT ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN LIKELY.
GIVEN HOW SATURATED THE GROUND IS WITH THE RECENT RAINS...BELIEVE
FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE LIKELY THESE DAYS. HAVE HELD OFF
ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AT THIS
TIME...JUST TO GIVE THE MODELS ANOTHER DAY TO FINE TUNE THE
TIMING...BUT BELIEVE ONE WILL BE NEEDED FOR THESE DAYS.
THE EXTENDED MODELS START TO VARY ON THE TIMING FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE REGION WILL
EITHER BE UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OR ANOTHER TROUGH.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THE THREAT OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
HYDROLOGY...
THE POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR FLOOD TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RED RIVER
CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER IS
FORECASTING UPWARDS OF 8 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION FALLING OVER THE
RED RIVER BASIN UPSTREAM OF LAKE TEXOMA IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THIS
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND WILL INCREASE
THE LIKELIHOOD OF A MAJOR FLOOD EVENT ALONG THE RED RIVER...THE
FIRST TIME SINCE 1990. OUR MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING THAT A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION MAY FALL ALONG THE RED RIVER
AS THE CREST MOVES SOUTH TOWARDS SHREVEPORT. THIS ADDS AN
ADDITIONAL LEVEL OF CONCERN. NEEDLESS TO SAY...WE WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE
RED RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS...PLEASE SEE NEWPNSSHV OR NOUS44
KSHV OR THE CURRENT AND FORECASTED RIVER LEVELS LINK ON OUR
WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/SHV.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 59 77 65 83 / 10 20 20 50
MLU 56 76 63 84 / 10 20 20 50
DEQ 55 72 60 79 / 10 40 20 50
TXK 56 73 61 81 / 10 30 20 50
ELD 54 74 61 82 / 10 20 20 50
TYR 60 76 66 82 / 20 40 20 40
GGG 59 77 66 83 / 20 30 20 40
LFK 64 80 69 84 / 20 40 20 40
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
253 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NOTICEABLY BELOW NORMAL WITH SOME FROST POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE METRO. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY AND REMAIN IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH MID-
WEEK NEXT WEEK WITH NOTICEABLY HOTTER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
RETURNING TO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CU FIELD AND SCT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN VICINITY OF A COLD
FRONT IN CENTRAL PA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO MD THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR HAS BEEN PERSISTENT
BRINGING ISO-SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE BEFORE
SUNSET. DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS... COVERAGE WILL BE LOW AND ONLY
A SPRINKLE OR BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE. NW WINDS 10-15MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH SHOULD BACK AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON
BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
BEHIND THE FRONT...A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC. WINDS WILL BECOME NW AGAIN AND CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT. DRY AND CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO
THE 40S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE METROS SEEING THE 50S AND THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ALLGHENY FRONT SEEING THE LOW TO MID 30S.
A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY. NRLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS
BELOW CLIMO IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THE RETURN FLOW WILL BE SLOW AND LOWS WILL
ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES MILDER ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS COMPARED TO
FRIDAY NIGHT. HUMIDITY WILL START TO COME BACK HOWEVER.
OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AS HEIGHTS ALOFT BUILD
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING RIDGE.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST SUNDAY WITH THE
RETURN FLOW RESULTING IN A NOTICEABLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID DAY AS
COMPARED TO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE AROUND 10 DEGREES
WHILE DEW POINT RISE WILL BE MORE LIKE 20 DEGREES. SOME CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AS WARM ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY ALOFT
ALONG THE TAIL END OF A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE BY TO OUR
NORTHWEST...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH HEIGHTS
CONTINUING TO BUILD ALOFT AHEAD OF THE STILL APPROACHING AND
BUILDING RIDGE AXIS.
CLOUDS WILL MAKE FOR A MUCH MILDER NIGHT ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT PASSES BY TO THE NORTH...BUT AGAIN NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. ON MONDAY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH OR
SLIGHTLY EXCEED 90 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS. DEW POINTS STILL WON`T
BE TOO HIGH WITH READINGS PROBABLY STAYING IN THE UPPER 50S IN
MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT IT WILL STILL FEEL CONSIDERABLY MORE
SUMMER-LIKE THAN IT WILL ON SATURDAY. WITH THE RIDGE STILL
BUILDING OVERHEAD...AND DEW POINTS NOT ALL THAT HIGH JUST
YET...CONSENSUS APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR A STORM-FREE DAY SO
HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ECMWF 500 MB RIDGE OVER MID ATLANTIC REGION SLOWLY MOVING TO EAST
ALLOWING A SHORT WAVE TO AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY. MOISTURE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY INCREASE ON SOUTHWEST FLOW DURING THE
PERIOD. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NW WINDS
10-15KTS G 20-25KTS WILL SUBSIDE TO 5-10KTS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO VARIABLE
SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH NO
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THE RISK FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS INCREASE
INSTABILITY.
&&
.MARINE...
W-NW WINDS 10-15KTS G 25KTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS TODAY.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE ACROSS THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE
BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD
SATURDAY AND NW WINDS WILL BECOME SW BY AFTERNOON ALBEIT 5- 10KTS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT DUE
TO THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT IT WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO
THE RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
MDZ501.
VA...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
WVZ501-503-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ531>534-
537-539>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
535-536-538.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...RCM
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HAS/RCM
MARINE...HAS/RCM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
719 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
UT...A RIDGE FROM THE SE CONUS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND A TROUGH
OVER NE CANADA RESULTING IN CONFLUENT WNW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN
LAKES. AT THE SFC...SW TO W WINDS PREVAILED OVER MOST OF UPPER MI
BUT WERE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO MOVE INTO THE N
CNTRL. MIXING AOA 10K FT HAS HELPED DROP DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S. WITH TEMPS ALSO INTO THE UPPER 70S...RH VALUES HAVE DROPPED
INTO THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE. VIS LOOP INDICATEED SCT DIURNAL CU
ALONG WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE MN/WI.
TONIGHT...WITH PERSISTENT SW WINDS AND INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS...MIN READINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH
THE WARMEST CONDITIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
PREVAIL.
SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SFC AND MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE PLAINS WITH CONTINUED RIDING INTO THE NRN LAKES. HOWEVER SW
TO W MID LEVEL FLOW BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE WITH 300K-310K
ISENTROPIC ASCENT TOWARD THE AREA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
TOWARD THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT THAT THE ONSET OF THE
PCPN MAY BE DELAYED BY CONTINUE DRY LOW LEVELS. TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN
CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S BUT WILL BE LIMITED BY INCREASING CLOUD
THICKNESS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015
UPPER AIR PATTERN TO START LONG TERM SHOWS LARGER TROUGH FM WESTERN
CANADA INTO THE PLAIN STATES. RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER SE CONUS
EXTENDS RIDGE BACK OVER GREAT LAKES. SHORTWAVE ON LEADING EDGE OF
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH LIFTS TOWARD UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE WAVE...SEEN IN H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT FIELDS...
COMBINES WITH LARGER SCALE ASCENT IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 130+
KT JET STREAK FM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO NEW ENGLAND TO BRING A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS ACROSS CWA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTN.
SHOWERS SHOULD END FIRST ALONG THE WI BORDER ON MONDAY MORNING AND
THEN ALONG LK SUPERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON. ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOWS
UP SOME WITH SI/S LOWERING TOWARD 0-1C BUT THAT ARRIVES AFTER MAIN
FORCING MOVES ACROSS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOR TSRA AT THIS POINT.
RAIN COULD FALL HEAVY AT TIMES GIVEN PWATS BY 12Z MONDAY AT KGRB
THAT WOULD BE IN THE HIGHEST 5 PCT COMPARED TO CLIMO FOR THE DATE.
ESE-E WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT/ADVECTION OF
HIGHER DWPNTS AND RAIN OVER ALL THE AREA POINTS TO FOG OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/ADJACENT SHORELINES AND ALSO OVER KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CNTRL CWA BTWN KIMT AND MARQUETTE.
UNCERTAINTY IN POPS/WX LATE MONDAY AFTN INTO MONDAY EVENING BUT
GENERALLY EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER DUE TO MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND
DRYING THAT MOVES OVERHEAD IN WAKE OF PRIMARY SHORTWAVE. LIKELY WILL
BE LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...THOUGH SSW BLYR WINDS DO NOT FAVOR
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS SINCE THAT PROVIDES MINIMAL TRAJECTORIES OFF
THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FM THE GREAT LAKES. GIVEN THE SSW WINDS ALSO
DIMINISHED FOG ON THE LAND AREAS...AT LEAST AWAY FM LK MICHIGAN AND
THE OPEN WATERS OF LK SUPERIOR. NAM INDICATES ENOUGH ADDITIONAL MID-
LEVEL MOSITURE MOVES IN BY EVENING TO COMBINE WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE CONVECTION. SINCE NAM IS ONLY MODEL
INDICATING THIS AT PRESENT...WILL DISCOUNT THAT IDEA AND CONTINUE TO
DOWNPLAY POPS. TEMPS ON MONDAY DEPEND ON EXTENT OF CLEARING. WILL
NOT TAKE MUCH TO BOOST TEMPS WITH WARM TEMPS ALOFT IN WARM SECTOR OF
SFC LOW THAT WILL BE NW OF LK SUPERIOR BY 00Z TUE. MIXING TO H9
RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S...SO INCREASED MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY.
LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MAIN FRONT SWINGS ACROSS UPPER
GREAT LAKES AS SFC LOW TRACKS NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR. VARYING IDEAS ON
STRENGTH AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT. GFS MOST AGRESSIVE WITH THAT IDEA WHERE ECMWF AND GEM ARE NOT
AS BULLISH. KEPT IT SIMPLE AND RETAINED LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF FRONT MOVING THROUGH. BASED ON SW H85 THETA-E ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND AT LEAST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF ELEVATED
CAPE...ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER OVER EAST HALF OF CWA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...KEPT THE FOG GOING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEAR LK MICHIGAN AT LEAST FOR THE MORNING ON
TUESDAY. ENOUGH DRYING DEVELOPS LATER IN THE DAY TO DISSIPATE THE
FOG. TEMPS ON TUESDAY COOLEST OVER NW CWA AND NEAR LK MICHIGAN WITH
MORE PRONOUNCED ONSHORE FLOW. EVEN FOR THOSE AREAS THOUGH...TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE 60S. MAX TEMPS REACH MID 70S INLAND TOWARD WI BORDER.
REST OF EXTENDED INDICATES MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
ANOTHER FRONT BRINGING SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
BASED ON LATEST ECMWF WHICH TRENDED TOWARD LAST COUPLE RUNS OF
GFS...APPEARS THAT NEXT WEEKEND WOULD BE DRIER AS MORE ACTIVE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
KEPT LOW CHANCES THAT CONSENSUS GAVE ATTM...BUT IF THESE MODEL
TRENDS CONTINUE...LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE POPS FM NEXT
SATURDAY. OVERALL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL.
GIVEN THE LACK OF REAL COOLING AT H85 OTHER THAN WITH THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY...COULD SEE TEMPS MOST DAYS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY PUSH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID-UPR 70S.
NIGHTTIME LOWS SHOULD STAY SAFELY ABOVE FREEZING...WITH MAINLY 40S
TO AROUND 50 DEGREES EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPS MOVE BACK IN NEXT
WEEKEND AS COOLER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 719 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...
DRY AIR WILL LINGER AT THE LOWER LEVELS THRU SUN AFTN...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015
SW-W WINDS TO 25 KTS...EVEN GREATER THAN 30 KTS AT HIGHER LEVEL
OBSERVATION PLATFORMS...DIMINISHES THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS THEN
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KTS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING TO 20-25 KTS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS TO NORTHWEST LK SUPERIOR. STRONGEST WINDS
SHOULD OCCUR ON MONDAY OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS WILL
TURN NORTHEAST DUE TO FUNNELLING. FOG SHOULD DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND THIS WILL LINGER OVER MUCH OF LK SUPERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. FOG MAY BECOME DENSE AT TIMES. WINDS BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT
DIMINISH TO 20 KTS OR LESS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
123 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WITH A COLD
FRONT. BEHIND THIS FRONT...HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND
60...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS TIME OF YEAR.
PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE IS EVEN BETTER POTENTIAL FOR FROST SATURDAY MORNING.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A WARMER AND WETTER
PATTERN LASTING WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. FROST FORMATION IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. WIDESPREAD
AREAS OF FROST ARE MORE LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION. MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO THE MID LEVELS WITH CLOUD
BASES AROUND 9K FEET. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER
40S. ALL THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...CONFIRMED BY THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE RAP AND HRRR. A
SIMILAR AIRMASS YESTERDAY EVENING RESULTED IN A RAIN/SLEET MIX
MAINLY IN THE CHICAGO AREA. BUT PRECIP THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY NOT
BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT WET-BULBING.
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL START TO CLEAR OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AS THEY VEER NORTHERLY BEHIND THE SFC
FRONT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TO
SET UP AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN.
ANOTHER COOL DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE
SURFACE. BUT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
IN. UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD ALLOW
GOOD FROST CONDITIONS TO SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOWS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOUTHWEST RETURN
FLOW FINALLY SETS UP SATURDAY...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015
THE MAIN STORY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THAT WE WILL FINALLY SEE
WARMER TEMPERATURES AS THE PERSISTENT HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW RETREATS
AND WE GET INTO DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE LIKELY
AWAY FROM LK MI... WITH PERHAPS 80 DEGREES AND NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID
FROM MONDAY ON.
PROLONGED WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WITH A FLOW OFF THE GULF AND A
QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS. HOWEVER THE TIMING/LOCATION/DURATION OF
CONVECTIVE EPISODES AND DAILY POSITION OF THE SFC FRONT IS LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. CURRENTLY WE HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHICH IS WHEN THE SFC WARM FRONT IS LIFTING
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 117 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN ATTM. WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT
WILL ALSO MOVE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES BY 09Z. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015
WAVES WERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECASTED...MAINLY DUE TO THE
STRONGER FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE UPDATED FORECAST
REFLECTS THESE HIGHER VALUES. NO HEADLINE AS THE VALUES WERE BELOW
CRITERIA PLUS WITH THE FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THE WIND VALUES DROP OFF BEHIND IT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015
NO CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION THAT COULD AFFECT
MAINSTEM RIVERS IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE SUNDAY...WHICH MARKS THE
START OF A WETTER PATTERN LASTING WELL INTO THE COMING WORK WEEK.
NATIONAL GUIDANCE ADVERTISES UNIFORM RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-1.5
INCHES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT BASE
FLOWS ARE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL AND THAT RAIN SHOULD BE SPREAD OUT
OVER TIME...WE EXPECT FAIRLY GENTLE RISES WILL BE UNDERWAY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THAT SAID...FORECASTING CONVECTIVE RAINFALL THIS FAR OUT IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SO THERE STILL REMAINS A FAIRLY WIDE RANGE OF
POSSIBILITIES FOR RAINFALL AND RIVER RESPONSES AT THIS POINT.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ037>040-
043>046.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TJT
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...TJT
MARINE...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1049 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND MOST OF THE NIGHT BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. SO...AS OF RIGHT NOW WERE
ARE IN A RELATIVELY LULL IN THE PRECIP AFTER AN AREA OF LIGHT
SHOWERS AFFECTED PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY /WITH JUST ENOUGH TO WET THE GROUND IN SPOTS/.
AS OF THIS AFTERNOON...THE LOCAL AREA IS UNDER A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AN OVERCAST ALTOSTRATUS DECK. THERE IS
WEAK 850MB FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH...BUT MN/WI IS LARGELY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION AT THE MOMENT. THERE
IS...HOWEVER...WARMING BETWEEN 850-700MB ACROSS NE/IA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS LIKELY THE BEGINNING OF THE WARMER THETA-E
PLUME EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH OVERNIGHT AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN
TO THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. BETWEEN 12-14Z THE RAP BRINGS
BETWEEN 100-150 UNITS OF 925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MN. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE THE LEADING EDGE OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS /PERHAPS WITH EMBEDDED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS/. THE THREAT FOR
VIGOROUS CONVECTION TOMORROW IS LOW...BECAUSE WE SIMPLY STRUGGLE
TO GET MUCH OF ANY ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN HERE TOMORROW. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES DO STEEPEN ACROSS IA/NE...BUT LOCALLY IT IS
PROBABLY JUST GOING TO AMOUNT TO A NICE PERSISTENT STRATIFORM RAIN
TOMORROW.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
FINALLY BEGINNING TO GET A BIT MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE GUIDANCE ON
HOW THINGS WILL UNFOLD DURING THE LONG TERM. IT WILL START OFF ON A
WET NOTE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS COMING
THROUGH THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.
WE WILL START THINGS OFF WITH THE STRONGEST SHORTWAVE OF THE WEEKEND
WORKING NORTH ACROSS MN. THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS WITH A 50 KT LLJ COMING
UP TO THE EAST SIDE OF A SFC LOW THAT WILL BE TRACKING DUE NORTH TO
THE WEST OF I-35. THIS WILL BRING A HEAVY BAND OF RAIN THROUGH THE
AREA AS PWATS INCREASE TO OVER 1.5". THE ONLY MODEL FOR THIS EVENT
THAT LOOKS TO BE AVOIDED AT THIS POINT IS THE GFS...AS IT HAS
STARTED OFF TOO FAR EAST WITH PRECIPITATION TODAY AND CONTINUES TO
BE AN EASTERN OUTLIER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS ASIDE...REST OF THE
MODELS SHOW AN AREA WIDE PRECIP EVENT UNFOLDING FROM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH JUST ABOUT EVERYONE LOOKING TO
GET IN ON 0.75" TO 1.25" OF RAIN FROM LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. ONE THING THAT IS LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM WHEN LOOKING AT
SOUNDINGS IS INSTABILITY...AS A RESULT...CAPPED THUNDER MENTION TO
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS THIS
LOOKS TO PRIMARILY BE A RAIN EVENT.
FOR MONDAY...IT IS BEGINNING TO LOOK DRIER...ESPECIALLY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...WHERE POPS WERE CUT BACK SIGNIFICANTLY. DURING THE DAY...THE
WAVE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE ABOUT A 1000MB SFC LOW MOVING INTO
NRN MN. IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING WAVE...A DRY SLOT AND SHORT WAVE
RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MPX AREA...WHICH MAY PRETTY MUCH CUT
OFF THE PRECIP FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. FOR MONDAY EVENING...WHEN THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BECOME ACTIVE...SAID FRONT WILL BE OFF
OVER WI...WITH MOST OF THAT PRECIPITATION OFF TO THE EAST WHILE THE
DEFORMATION PRECIP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SFC LOW LOOKS TO LARGELY
FALL TO THE N/NW OF THE MPX AREA. THIS WAS A PRETTY BIG CHANGE FROM
EARLIER MODEL RUNS AND THEREFORE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH
PRETTY MUCH HAD AREA WIDE LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT...SO TRIED TO
CUT A MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THIS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO KEEP
FROM HAVING SUCH A DRASTIC CHANGE...WHICH BASICALLY MEANS WE CUT
POPS IN HALF ON MONDAY NIGHT...WITH JUST CHANCE POPS LEFT AT THIS
POINT.
FOR TUESDAY...WE WILL HAVE A BAGGY SFC PRESSURE PATTERN IN
PLACE...BUT SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY...WHICH MAY HELP GENERATE
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY...SO HAVE
MAINTAINED SOME 20/30 POPS FOR THAT DAY. DID REMOVE ANY REMAINING
POPS THOUGH FOR WEDNESDAY WITH ALL GUIDANCE NOW DRY AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
FOR THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE LATTER BEING THE FASTER OF THE TWO...BOTH
CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER FRONT WORKING ACROSS THE AREA WITH A ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING THIS FOR A FEW DAYS...SO HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LIKELY POPS
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
TO END THE EXTENDED...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A RATHER POTENT COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOOKING
AT THE HEMISPHERIC H5 FORECASTS...IT ACTUALLY MAKES PHYSICAL SENSE
TO SEE A STRONG FRONT COMING THROUGH AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW THE UPPER AIR PATTERN TAKING ON A DECIDEDLY -NAO/-
AO PATTERN AS HIGH HEIGHTS MOVE OVER THE NORTH POLE...WITH
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LOWS MOVING SOUTH OUT OF THE ARCTIC. THIS
PATTERN...EVEN IN EARLY SUMMER WOULD ALLOW COLD AIR TO GET DISLODGED
FROM THE ARCTIC AND THAT IS WHAT BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS SHOW FOR NEXT
WEEKEND AS A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS WORKS DOWN IN THE FORM OF A
1030+ MB HIGH WITH DEWPS BACK IN THE 20S/30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
ISOLATED SPITS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT THE MAIN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SAID RAIN WILL EXPAND NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY....WITH CIGS AND VSBYS
LOWERING TO THE MVFR CATEGORY. THE THREAT FOR THUNDER STILL LOOKS
MINIMAL SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED A MENTION IN THE TAFS. SHOULD SEE A
LULL IN THE RAIN AROUND 00Z MON...AND THEN IT PICKS UP AGAIN ON
MONDAY EVE
KMSP...
A FEW PASSING SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN THE VCTY OF THE
FIELD...BUT THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS /WITH MVFR CIGS-VSBYS/ SHOULD
ARRIVE AROUND/AFTER 17Z. MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. PREICP LIGHTENS AROUND 23Z...WITH MORE OF A DR/BR
SCENARIO DEVELOPING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. WINDS S
10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. CHC SHRA/-TSRA. WINDS SW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...LS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1103 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
TONIGHT
REGIONAL 88D MOSAIC SHOWING AREA OF TSRA OVER KS QUICKLY APPROACHING
THE SRN CWA. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE TIMING THE PCPN WITH THE LATEST INDICATING THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE ACTIVITY PUSHING INTO THE SRN CWA SOMETIME BTWN 22Z-24Z LATE
THIS AFTN. RAP13 SUGGESTING RATHER STRONG 305K UPGLIDE/INFLUX OF
MOISTURE SHOULD AID IN MAINTAINING THE PCPN ACTIVITY THEN THRU THE
MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL AT
BEST...THUS EXPECT ANY THUNDER TO BE ISOLATED IN NATURE.
AT THIS POINT...VERY GOOD AGREEMENT SEEN BTWN THE HRRR/RAP13/AWR-NMM
WITH HIGHEST QPF FOUND OVER THE SRN CWA WHERE MAX OMEGA WILL BE
REALIZED OVERNIGHT. GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONGST THE SHORT TERM MODELS
GIVE AMOUNTS GENERALLY AROUND 1.5" BY 12Z SUN SOUTH OF THE I-80
CORRIDOR. MEANWHILE OVER THE REST OF THE CWA...AMOUNTS ANYWHERE FROM
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH UP TO HALF AN INCH BY SUN MORNING LOOK
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING TO THE SOUTH LOOKS
RELATIVELY SMALL PER LATEST FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SHOWERS MAY BE ONGOING ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER SUNDAY
MORNING...MAY WANE BY LATE MORNING...BUT THEN COULD REDEVELOP BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO REGION. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO RETURN
WITH MUCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
DRY SLOT COULD ALSO AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA
WHICH COULD MAKE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PRETTY SPARSE. A SECONDARY
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT COULD BRING
A FEW STORMS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN LIFTING NORTH
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
COULD SEE PRECIP WANE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES INTO THE AREA. WITH WARM FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION...TEMPS SHOULD BE MUCH WARMER BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL BE WITHIN THE AREA WELL
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT. BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AND POTENTIAL HEAVY
RAIN APPEARS TO BE MONDAY EVENING ALONG/SOUTH OF I80.
COLD FRONT IS STILL MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY THUS STILL
HAVE A CHANCE OF PRECIP ALONG SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES WINDING DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST WEDNESDAY AS WE SHOULD IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS. NEXT TROUGH COMES OFF THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A COUPLE MORE
IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
BRINGING ADDITIONAL HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS TO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN AND FOG THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY EVENING.FOR NOW INCLUDED LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AT
KOMA WITH INCREASING 45KT LOW LEVEL JET AND CONTINUED FAVORABLE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONTINUED LIFT.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEE/DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
644 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
TONIGHT
REGIONAL 88D MOSAIC SHOWING AREA OF TSRA OVER KS QUICKLY APPROACHING
THE SRN CWA. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE TIMING THE PCPN WITH THE LATEST INDICATING THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE ACTIVITY PUSHING INTO THE SRN CWA SOMETIME BTWN 22Z-24Z LATE
THIS AFTN. RAP13 SUGGESTING RATHER STRONG 305K UPGLIDE/INFLUX OF
MOISTURE SHOULD AID IN MAINTAINING THE PCPN ACTIVITY THEN THRU THE
MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL AT
BEST...THUS EXPECT ANY THUNDER TO BE ISOLATED IN NATURE.
AT THIS POINT...VERY GOOD AGREEMENT SEEN BTWN THE HRRR/RAP13/AWR-NMM
WITH HIGHEST QPF FOUND OVER THE SRN CWA WHERE MAX OMEGA WILL BE
REALIZED OVERNIGHT. GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONGST THE SHORT TERM MODELS
GIVE AMOUNTS GENERALLY AROUND 1.5" BY 12Z SUN SOUTH OF THE I-80
CORRIDOR. MEANWHILE OVER THE REST OF THE CWA...AMOUNTS ANYWHERE FROM
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH UP TO HALF AN INCH BY SUN MORNING LOOK
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING TO THE SOUTH LOOKS
RELATIVELY SMALL PER LATEST FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SHOWERS MAY BE ONGOING ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER SUNDAY
MORNING...MAY WANE BY LATE MORNING...BUT THEN COULD REDEVELOP BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO REGION. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO RETURN
WITH MUCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
DRY SLOT COULD ALSO AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA
WHICH COULD MAKE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PRETTY SPARSE. A SECONDARY
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT COULD BRING
A FEW STORMS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN LIFTING NORTH
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
COULD SEE PRECIP WANE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES INTO THE AREA. WITH WARM FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION...TEMPS SHOULD BE MUCH WARMER BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL BE WITHIN THE AREA WELL
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT. BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AND POTENTIAL HEAVY
RAIN APPEARS TO BE MONDAY EVENING ALONG/SOUTH OF I80.
COLD FRONT IS STILL MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY THUS STILL
HAVE A CHANCE OF PRECIP ALONG SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES WINDING DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST WEDNESDAY AS WE SHOULD IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS. NEXT TROUGH COMES OFF THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A COUPLE MORE
IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
BRINGING ADDITIONAL HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS TO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PATCHY IFR/LIFR CIGS IN AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. MAIN AREA OF ORGANIZED RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAFS. LOOK FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT AS FLOW BACKS. STORM SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TAFS SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS/STORMS...HOWEVER
UNCERTAIN ON HOW FAR WEST THESE WILL EXTEND.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEE/DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
134 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO REGION AND CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS RETURNING TO THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM THURSDAY...NEAR-TERM UPDATE TO ADDRESS THE INCREASING
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA. WEAK SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG AN OCCLUDING FRONT ACCORDING TO LATEST WPC
ANALYSIS...AND ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SHOWERS HAVE RE-FIRED LOCALLY.
00Z KGSO SOUNDING HAS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY FROM ABOUT 950MB UP
THROUGH 750MB...SO SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH
AT LEAST WEAK MID-LEVEL FORCING ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
SHORTWAVE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTH WILL DRIVE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
SHALLOW INSTABILITY WILL PREVENT LIGHTNING. HIGH RES HRRR AND NSSL
WRF WERE ON THE RIGHT TRACK...AND HAVE LEANED ON THE HRRR HEAVILY
FOR THE OVERNIGHT. HAVE RAMPED POP UP TO CHC ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT BEST CHANCE WILL BE PRETTY MUCH
ALONG THE STATE LINE AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD. ANY
SHOWERS WILL ERODE LATE AS THEY HEAD EAST...AND THE DRY/COOL
ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST.
WINDS EARLY WILL BE VARIABLE...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND A COOL SURGE DEVELOPS. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
RISE TO 10 TO 15 MPH LATE...WHICH WILL HELP DRIVE LOWS INTO THE UPR
50S NORTH...LOW 60S IN THE SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...AS THE FRONT EXITS THE FORECAST
REGION...COOLER DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN. GFS AND NAM ARE
SHOWING THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALLING TO A RANGE OF 0.5 TO
1 INCHES. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL STAY TO THE NORTH DURING
THIS PERIOD. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S FRIDAY
AND AROUND 80 ON SATURDAY. LOWS EACH NIGHT SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN
THE MIDDLE 50S FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPPER 50S ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST BY THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE AREA WILL SEE A RETURN OF ONSHORE
FLOW...A RETURN TO HIGHER HUMIDITIES...AND A WARM UP IN
TEMPERATURES. ALOFT A RIDGE STUBBORNLY HOLDS ON THROUGH ALMOST
THURSDAY SO THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF A DIURNAL
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO AROUND 90 BY TUESDAY AND REMAIN AT
THOSE LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL SLOWLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A COLD FRONT HAD MOVED S AND E OF ALL THE TERMINALS.
A MID CLOUD VFR CEILING WILL GRADUALLY SHRINK THROUGH SUNRISE AS
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. DESPITE GOOD
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AND MOIST SOILS AT
KLBT AND KILM...NO FOG IS EXPECTED AT THESE OR ANY OTHER TERMINAL
AS ELEVATED N WINDS WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVELS MIXED.
AFTER 12Z EXPECT VFR/CLEAR SKIES BELOW 12K AS N-NE WINDS PREVAIL.
IN THE AFTERNOON SCT CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT
NE-E.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR. MORNING FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 AM FRIDAY...A SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL THE WATERS...EXCEPT FOR THE SEGMENT FROM
LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET.
A NORTHERLY SURGE IS UNDERWAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT AND
WINDS WILL INCREASE STEADILY UP TO 20 KT. LATEST MME GUIDANCE
SHOWS 25 KT AT 41013...BUT ONLY 15 KT AT JMPN7. FOR THIS REASON
HAVE PAINTED AN AVERAGE OF 20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS WILL BE
IN THE 4 TO 5 FT RANGE...EXCEPT 2 TO 4 FT WHERE A NNE TO NE FETCH
IS GREATLY REDUCED.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED EAST OF THE
WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS. WINDS WILL
BE FROM THE NORTH AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS ON FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN TO 10 TO 15 KT BY THE OF END FRIDAY AND REMAIN AT
THESE SPEEDS. WINDS WILL BEGIN THE DAY FROM THE NORTH AND WILL
VEER TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY. SEA HEIGHTS WILL START OUT AT 2 TO 4
FEET EARLY FRIDAY AND WILL SETTLE OUT AT 2 TO 3 FEET THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RULE THE COASTAL
WATERS WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 KNOTS SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTH AT 10 KNOTS BY TUESDAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 2 TO 3 FEET FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...DRH
LONG TERM...DRH
AVIATION...MRR/RJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
642 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015
.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.
WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL FORM AT ALL SITES BY 15Z.
THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS WHERE A FEW SITES MAY DROP TO LIFR. SOME IMPROVEMENT
IS POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION AS THIS IS UNLIKELY.
AREA OF RA/TSRA WILL AFFECT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 17Z.
ADDITIONAL RA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 17Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION
EXCEPT NEAR KPNC...KWWR...AND KGAG AFTER 10Z WHERE CHANCES OF
OCCURRENCE ARE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY.
MBS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/
DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE
ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO EXPAND THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.
LATEST MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF...DEPICTED HIGHER
QPF/RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THESE AREAS...GENERALLY 1 TO 4 INCHES...
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SO BELIEVE THE FLASH FLOODING
POTENTIAL MAY BE INCREASING IN THESE LOCATIONS. THE REST OF THE
WATCH APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.
TODAY...BATCH OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY THIS MORNING...
BRINGING GENERALLY 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL. DUE TO LACK OF
INSTABILITY...NO STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS OR FLASH FLOODING ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL END WEST TO EAST
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND LATEST HRRR RUNS
MAY BE TO SLOW WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS RAIN. BELIEVE MOST
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DRY THIS AFTERNOON. DUE
TO CLOUD COVER...WENT TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR HIGHS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA TODAY AS LOW LEVELS MOISTEN. THE TRUE SURFACE
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA.
TONIGHT...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH MIDNIGHT
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY INCREASE. KEPT THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. SEVERE POTENTIAL
AND HEAVY RAINFALL SEEM TO BE RATHER LOW TONIGHT IN THESE
LOCATIONS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WAS SOME FOG ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...FLOODING CONCERNS WILL INCREASE AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND SPREAD EAST DURING THE DAY. THERE SEEMS TO BE A
SIGNAL FROM THE MODELS THAT NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA MAY HAVE THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS DURING THE MORNING...SPREADING TO THE I-44
CORRIDOR AND POINTS SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. KEPT HIGH RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
APPROACH NEARLY 2 INCHES WHICH WOULD BE NEAR RECORD LEVELS. VERY
HEAVY RAIN RATES OVER 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE AND WOULD
ONLY INCREASE FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL.
IN REGARDS TO SEVERE POTENTIAL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
BELIEVE THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING...
LOCATIONS...AND STORM MODE REMAIN LOW. MESOSCALE DETAILS WILL
DICTATE WHAT OCCURS. CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...STRONG SHEAR INCLUDING THE LOW LEVELS AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST A LOW TORNADO THREAT. SOME DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL MAY OCCUR. STILL BELIEVE FLOODING AND POSSIBLE
TRAINING OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FLOODING AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. WHAT HAPPENS ON SATURDAY WILL HAVE
A BIG INFLUENCE ON WHAT OCCURS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY
THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF I-44.
SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN AS CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
MAY STABILIZE THE AIR. HOWEVER...IF SOME CLEARING AND
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS...THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WOULD
INCREASE CONSIDERABLY...ESPECIALLY AS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE
HIGHER ON SUNDAY COMPARED TO SATURDAY.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY
ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH A FEW STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
CONTINUE TO AGGRAVATE ONGOING FLOODING. CAPPING WILL REMAIN RATHER
WEAK. SHEAR WILL WEAKEN. HOWEVER...THE AIR WILL REMAIN MOIST AND
PERHAPS MORE UNSTABLE COMPARED TO SUNDAY. THINK THERE WILL BE MANY
MORE DRY HOURS ON MONDAY COMPARED TO WET ONES.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A WARM MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN NEARBY
WITH AT LEAST SOME LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS MOST DAYS. INCREASING
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND WEAK RIDGING SHOULD DECREASE STORM COVERAGE. ANY
STORM WOULD BE SLOW MOVING AND COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR AVERAGE.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 63 60 76 63 / 90 40 90 90
HOBART OK 65 60 73 61 / 70 50 90 60
WICHITA FALLS TX 69 63 79 64 / 90 30 90 90
GAGE OK 63 57 68 58 / 50 60 90 30
PONCA CITY OK 61 58 70 63 / 90 60 90 80
DURANT OK 69 61 78 65 / 70 20 60 90
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
23/17/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
417 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015
.DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE
ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO EXPAND THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.
LATEST MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF...DEPICTED HIGHER
QPF/RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THESE AREAS...GENERALLY 1 TO 4 INCHES...
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SO BELIEVE THE FLASH FLOODING
POTENTIAL MAY BE INCREASING IN THESE LOCATIONS. THE REST OF THE
WATCH APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.
TODAY...BATCH OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY THIS MORNING...
BRINGING GENERALLY 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL. DUE TO LACK OF
INSTABILITY...NO STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS OR FLASH FLOODING ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL END WEST TO EAST
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND LATEST HRRR RUNS
MAY BE TO SLOW WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS RAIN. BELIEVE MOST
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DRY THIS AFTERNOON. DUE
TO CLOUD COVER...WENT TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR HIGHS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA TODAY AS LOW LEVELS MOISTEN. THE TRUE SURFACE
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA.
TONIGHT...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH MIDNIGHT
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY INCREASE. KEPT THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. SEVERE POTENTIAL
AND HEAVY RAINFALL SEEM TO BE RATHER LOW TONIGHT IN THESE
LOCATIONS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WAS SOME FOG ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...FLOODING CONCERNS WILL INCREASE AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND SPREAD EAST DURING THE DAY. THERE SEEMS TO BE A
SIGNAL FROM THE MODELS THAT NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA MAY HAVE THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS DURING THE MORNING...SPREADING TO THE I-44
CORRIDOR AND POINTS SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. KEPT HIGH RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
APPROACH NEARLY 2 INCHES WHICH WOULD BE NEAR RECORD LEVELS. VERY
HEAVY RAIN RATES OVER 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE AND WOULD
ONLY INCREASE FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL.
IN REGARDS TO SEVERE POTENTIAL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
BELIEVE THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING...
LOCATIONS...AND STORM MODE REMAIN LOW. MESOSCALE DETAILS WILL
DICTATE WHAT OCCURS. CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...STRONG SHEAR INCLUDING THE LOW LEVELS AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST A LOW TORNADO THREAT. SOME DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL MAY OCCUR. STILL BELIEVE FLOODING AND POSSIBLE
TRAINING OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FLOODING AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. WHAT HAPPENS ON SATURDAY WILL HAVE
A BIG INFLUENCE ON WHAT OCCURS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY
THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF I-44.
SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN AS CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
MAY STABILIZE THE AIR. HOWEVER...IF SOME CLEARING AND
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS...THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WOULD
INCREASE CONSIDERABLY...ESPECIALLY AS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE
HIGHER ON SUNDAY COMPARED TO SATURDAY.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY
ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH A FEW STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
CONTINUE TO AGGRAVATE ONGOING FLOODING. CAPPING WILL REMAIN RATHER
WEAK. SHEAR WILL WEAKEN. HOWEVER...THE AIR WILL REMAIN MOIST AND
PERHAPS MORE UNSTABLE COMPARED TO SUNDAY. THINK THERE WILL BE MANY
MORE DRY HOURS ON MONDAY COMPARED TO WET ONES.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A WARM MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN NEARBY
WITH AT LEAST SOME LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS MOST DAYS. INCREASING
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND WEAK RIDGING SHOULD DECREASE STORM COVERAGE. ANY
STORM WOULD BE SLOW MOVING AND COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR AVERAGE.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 63 60 76 63 / 90 40 90 90
HOBART OK 65 60 73 61 / 70 50 90 60
WICHITA FALLS TX 69 63 79 64 / 90 30 90 90
GAGE OK 63 57 68 58 / 50 60 90 30
PONCA CITY OK 61 58 70 63 / 90 60 90 80
DURANT OK 69 61 78 65 / 70 20 60 90
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
23/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1143 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR ALL SITES.
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO EASTERN OK AFTER 15-16Z...ALONG WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE INTO WESTERN AR AFTER 18-20Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 830 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/
DISCUSSION...
NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WILL ENCROACH ON THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
AND MAY ENTER THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BY 12Z.
ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES
TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY BRINGING THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. HAVE LOWERED POPS EAST OF HIGHWAY 75 FOR TONIGHT
AS THE HRRR HAS TRENDED A BIT SLOWER ON BRINGING THE PRECIPITATION INTO
THE AREA. HAVE ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRIDS FOR TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 51 60 55 73 / 10 80 50 70
FSM 53 62 56 76 / 10 70 40 50
MLC 54 63 58 76 / 20 80 40 50
BVO 48 60 53 72 / 10 80 50 70
FYV 46 61 54 72 / 10 70 50 50
BYV 46 63 52 71 / 10 50 40 50
MKO 52 60 56 75 / 10 80 50 60
MIO 47 63 53 73 / 10 70 40 60
F10 53 61 57 75 / 20 80 50 60
HHW 57 67 59 78 / 10 60 30 50
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-
OKZ053-OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-
OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-
OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.
&&
$$
AVIATION...18
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PENDLETON OR
1035 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
.UPDATE...ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RAP AROUND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER CALIFORNIA AND INTO OUR AREA. COMBINING THIS WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. PWAT REMAINS HIGH AND SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE REGION THAT INCLUDES THE BLUE/WALLOWA MTNS ALONG WITH THE JOHN
DAY HIGHLANDS WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. IN
ADDITION SOME MODIFICATIONS WERE DONE TO AFTN TEMPS AND THE PRESENT
SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS. IT WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS...BUT CIGS WILL BE 3500-8000 FEET AGL AND THERE MAY BE
PERIODS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WEB CAMS NEAR KRDM
AND KBDN ARE SHOWING LOW LYING SCUD CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 1500
FEET. TOWERING CUMULUS AND/OR CB CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES...AND THERE MAY BE IN CLOUD LIGHTNING OR CTG
LIGHTNING. WINDS WILL HAVE A WESTERLY COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-
15 KT...EXCEPT 15 TO 25 KT AT KDLS. WISTER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE
AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE TODAY.
INCREASING WEST FLOW FROM THE GORGE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL OREGON WILL
INCREASINGLY LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THESE AREAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM MOTION WILL
BE RELATIVELY SLOW AND DECENT RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
FROM THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE MAIN SHOWER AND STORM FOCUS LOOKS TO BE
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN ZONES WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
COVERING THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS NORTH TO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS
AND NORTHEAST TO WALLOWA COUNTY. A WEAK LOW LOOKS TO SLIDE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AS A RESULT A DEFORMATION
PRECIP BAND MAY DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW. AS SUCH WILL KEEP
40-60 PERCENT POPS GOING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON INTO
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL OREGON TONIGHT. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY. THUS THE AIR MASS OVER THE
REGION WILL BECOME A BIT DRIER, LIMITING THE AREAS TO BE AFFECTED BY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS
TIME EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WASHINGTON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. 90
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN OVERALL DRYING TREND WILL
OCCUR ON SUNDAY WITH NWLY FLOW REGIME BECOMING AT LEAST BRIEFLY
ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR EAST AND ALONG THE WASHINGTON
CASCADE EAST SLOPES. ON MONDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO WASHINGTON AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND WASHINGTON CASCADES.
FROM TUESDAY ONWARD THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIVERGE ON THE HANDLING
OF THE UPPER LOW. THE GFS MEANDERS THE LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA
KEEPING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEREAS THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW OUT AND
REPLACES IT WITH DRY NW FLOW. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED THIS FORECAST
UPDATE TOWARD THE GFS WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN CONTINUITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS UPPER 70S TO MID 80S LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH 60S TO LOWER
70S MOUNTAINS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 74 54 73 51 / 50 40 40 20
ALW 76 56 75 55 / 50 50 30 20
PSC 83 58 80 54 / 40 40 30 10
YKM 78 59 79 55 / 60 40 40 20
HRI 80 57 78 53 / 50 40 30 10
ELN 79 56 78 54 / 60 40 40 20
RDM 68 44 68 39 / 40 20 20 10
LGD 69 54 68 50 / 80 60 40 30
GCD 68 49 69 45 / 80 60 30 20
DLS 76 57 70 54 / 20 20 20 10
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ORZ049-050-502-503-
505-506.
WA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WAZ030.
&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
97/85
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PENDLETON OR
835 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015
.UPDATE...ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RAP AROUND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER CALIFORNIA AND INTO OUR AREA. COMBINING THIS WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. PWAT REMAINS HIGH AND SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE REGION THAT INCLUDES THE BLUE/WALLOWA MTNS ALONG WITH THE JOHN
DAY HIGHLANDS WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. IN
ADDITION SOME MODIFICATIONS WERE DONE TO AFTN TEMPS AND THE PRESENT
SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE
AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE TODAY.
INCREASING WEST FLOW FROM THE GORGE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL OREGON WILL
INCREASINGLY LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THESE AREAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM MOTION WILL
BE RELATIVELY SLOW AND DECENT RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
FROM THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE MAIN SHOWER AND STORM FOCUS LOOKS TO BE
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN ZONES WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
COVERING THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS NORTH TO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS
AND NORTHEAST TO WALLOWA COUNTY. A WEAK LOW LOOKS TO SLIDE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AS A RESULT A DEFORMATION
PRECIP BAND MAY DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW. AS SUCH WILL KEEP
40-60 PERCENT POPS GOING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON INTO
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL OREGON TONIGHT. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY. THUS THE AIR MASS OVER THE
REGION WILL BECOME A BIT DRIER, LIMITING THE AREAS TO BE AFFECTED BY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS
TIME EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WASHINGTON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. 90
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN OVERALL DRYING TREND WILL
OCCUR ON SUNDAY WITH NWLY FLOW REGIME BECOMING AT LEAST BRIEFLY
ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR EAST AND ALONG THE WASHINGTON
CASCADE EAST SLOPES. ON MONDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO WASHINGTON AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND WASHINGTON CASCADES.
FROM TUESDAY ONWARD THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIVERGE ON THE HANDLING
OF THE UPPER LOW. THE GFS MEANDERS THE LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA
KEEPING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEREAS THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW OUT AND
REPLACES IT WITH DRY NW FLOW. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED THIS FORECAST
UPDATE TOWARD THE GFS WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN CONTINUITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS UPPER 70S TO MID 80S LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH 60S TO LOWER
70S MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND DRIFT WWD AGAIN TODAY STARTING
AROUND 20Z. LIGHTNING MAY BE A BIT LESS THAN ON THURSDAY. FOR NOW
WILL USE VCSH WHICH CAN BE FINE TUNED WITH VCTS IF NECESSARY LATER
THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL BE 5-8K FEET AGL WITH MID
CLOUD ABOVE. WINDS WILL HAVE A WESTERLY COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON AT
5-15 KT...EXCEPT 15 TO 25 KT AT KDLS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 74 54 73 51 / 50 40 40 20
ALW 76 56 75 55 / 50 50 30 20
PSC 83 58 80 54 / 40 40 30 10
YKM 78 59 79 55 / 60 40 40 20
HRI 80 57 78 53 / 50 40 30 10
ELN 79 56 78 54 / 60 40 40 20
RDM 68 44 68 39 / 40 20 20 10
LGD 69 54 68 50 / 80 60 40 30
GCD 68 49 69 45 / 80 60 30 20
DLS 76 57 70 54 / 20 20 20 10
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ORZ049-050-502-503-
505-506.
WA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WAZ030.
&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
97/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
923 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
.UPDATE...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE CLOUDS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES OVER OKLAHOMA
AND TEXAS. LATEST HRRR SHOWS REMNANT SHOWERS FROM THESE COMPLEXES
MOVING INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. CURRENT FORECAST
HAS A GOOD HANDLE. NO UPDATES ARE EXPECTED.
KRM
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
THE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WHICH WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS THIS MORNING HAS NOW REACHED SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND IS
OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CURRENTLY A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH
NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND INTO SOUTH MISSISSIPPI. THIS WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS BY
SUNDAY MORNING. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY MAY REACH WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILDER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE
LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WITH LOWS SUNDAY MORNING IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S.
ON SUNDAY...THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND REACH
INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI BY SUNDAY EVENING. AS A RESULT MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY WARM WITH HIGH IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S. BY SUNDAY NIGHT A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION PRODUCING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL REMAIN
WARM SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING AROUND 70
DEGREES.
ON MONDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION
BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO PARTS OF EAST ARKANSAS AND A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BUT A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO ISSUE IT YET
AS SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO HOW MUCH RAIN IS EXPECTED. WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH
HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES.
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE SO THERE WILL BE MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY SO
THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THIS PERIOD.
THURSDAY WILL SEE WEATHER MORE LIKE SUMMER WITH A FEW AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE REGION STARTING
THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. THIS WILL SET
UP MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD.
ARS
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW SHRAS ARE POSSIBLE AT KMEM LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND AT KJBR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SE
WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT THEN VEER SOUTH AND
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
SJM
&&
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
649 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
.AVIATION...
STORMS HAVE CLEARED THE DRT AREA FOR THE TIME BEING BUT HAVE KEPT
IN CHANCES FOR LATER TONIGHT. SAT/SSF WILL BE IMPACTED BY MORE
STORMS WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS AND AUSTIN A BIT LONGER. BUT
PREVAILING THUNDER FOR THESE I-35 TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
AN ACTIVE AND COMPLEX FORECAST IS SHAPING UP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BOTH
SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM ON SUNDAY.
IN ADDITION TO THE SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THAT IS ONGOING CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY AND I-35
CORRIDOR CONVECTION HAS BEGUN ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE BIG
BEND REGION. THIS IS THE START OF A LARGE LINEAR MCS THAT ALL OF
THE MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING
INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS
BEEN SITTING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PROVIDING THE LIFT FOR
THIS MCS. THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW 70S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2
INCHES. THERE IS ALSO PLENTY OF INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA WITH
THE MORNING DRT AND CRP SOUNDINGS BOTH HAVING 2000 - 3000 J/KG OF
CAPE. A GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL AND BULK SHEAR IS ALSO EVIDENT
ACCORDING TO THE MODELS. THIS MEANS THAT ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS
ARE IN PLACE FOR BOTH HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TOMORROW. WILL
BREAKDOWN THE THREATS AND THE TIME PERIODS IN THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM AFD.
FOR TONIGHT...AS ALREADY DISCUSSED...THE MESOSCALE MODELS DEVELOP
A COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. TIMING FOR THIS CONTINUES TO GET EARLIER. THE NSSL WRF
AND ARM BOTH HAVE THE LINE APPROACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON. THE TEXAS TECH WRF AND HRRR AND NMM ALL SAY THAT
THE LINE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY AND APPROACHING
THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY 9PM AND SLOWLY PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS THE EARLIER
TIMING IS BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE LIKELY. MODELS ARE STILL HOLDING
ONTO 1-3 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE OF
CONVECTION. THIS...ON TOP OF ADDITIONAL RAINS THAT HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN TODAY...AND THE FACT THAT SOILS ARE SATURATED WILL LEAD TO
THE THREAT OF BOTH RIVER FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. WHILE CONVECTION GROUPING
TOGETHER LIKE THIS TYPICAL MEANS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
A LITTLE BIT LESS...CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE VERY FAVORABLE. THE
MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE FIRST DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS WITHIN
BOWING SECTIONS OF THE LINE. THE HRRR ACTUAL SUPPORTS THIS WITH
SEVERAL BOWING SECTIONS BEING SHOWN IN THE MODEL REFLECTIVITY.
THERE IS ALSO SUFFICIENT SURFACE WIND SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES
TO RESULT IN AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS WINDS PROFILES TURN
WITH HEIGHT.
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IT IS IMPERATIVE THAT THOSE OUT AND
ABOUT FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY THOSE ON LOCAL RIVERS
AND LAKES...MONITOR THE WEATHER AND BE READY TO ACT SHOULD A
WARNING BE ISSUED FOR THEIR AREA. HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE
WEATHER INFORMATION...HAVE A PLAN TO SEEK SHELTER OR GET TO SAFETY
SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING OCCUR...AND ALWAYS REMEMBER TO
TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
AS WE GET INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH
CONTINUED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS NOW
SHOW THE LINE MOVING OUT OF OUR CWA BY 09Z TO 12Z (4 TO 7 AM).
BEHIND THE LINE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SOME WHAT WORKED OVER FROM
THE NIGHT OF STORMS. ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW OVER 3000 J/KG
OF CAPE...SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY...DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THE SAME SOUNDINGS SHOW SIGNIFICANT LOW
AND UPPER LEVEL DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS SHOULD LIMIT SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS SUNDAYS. MESOSCALE MODELS LIKE THE ARM/NMM/NSSL WRF DO SHOW
SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LIMITED.
TO SUMMARIZE THE NEXT 24 HOURS...1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IN EFFECT. THE LINE SHOULD BE PUSHING OUT OF OUR AREA
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WINDS
ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO EXIST WITH THE LINE. BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. EVERYONE SHOULD BE
WEATHER AWARE FOR THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY THOSE OUT AND ABOUT ON
AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE BREAK FROM THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES ON MONDAY.
THIS DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND GIVE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN AND
STORMS. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BEST TIMING FOR ANOTHER WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM AROUND LUNCH TIME THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MODEL QPF (FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF) FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
SUGGEST ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REMAIN OVER 1.5 INCHES AS WELL. LATER SHIFTS WOULD POSSIBLE NEED
TO CONSIDER EXTENDING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO MONDAY AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASES. THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO
RETURN ON MONDAY. SPC HAS THE AREA CURRENTLY BLANKETED IN A DAY 3
SLIGHT RISK. MODEL SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES
SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. STORM
MODE AND COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL DETERMINE THE OVERALL THREAT OF
TORNADOES AS CHANCES ARE BETTER WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OR MCS STORM MODES. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY CLOSELY. STRESSING
AGAIN...ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE HOLIDAY NEEDS TO MAKE
SURE THEY ARE WEATHER AWARE AND HAVE A PLAN TO SEEK SHELTER SHOULD
SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOP.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FOR TUESDAY IS MORE ZONAL WITH SOME SLIGHT
RIDGING FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER REDUCTION IN POP
CHANCES FOR MID-WEEK. BY THE END OF THE WEEK ANOTHER LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE WEST RETURNING THE AREA TO A
SIMILAR PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN IN FOR THE LAST FEW WEEKS WITH A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH SENDING A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE
AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 69 81 70 81 69 / 90 70 30 70 60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 69 82 69 81 68 / 90 70 30 70 60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 68 83 69 81 70 / 90 70 40 70 60
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 67 81 69 80 67 / 90 70 30 70 40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 68 90 71 89 69 / 60 30 20 50 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 69 80 69 80 68 / 90 70 30 70 50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 68 85 70 83 69 / 90 40 30 70 40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 69 82 69 81 69 / 90 70 40 70 60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 71 82 71 82 71 / 80 80 60 60 60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 68 84 71 82 71 / 90 60 40 70 50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 69 84 71 83 71 / 90 60 40 70 50
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...
GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...
KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...
UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TREADWAY
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
404 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEEK AHEAD WILL BE MARKED BY WARM SUNNY WEATHER WITH OCCASIONAL
INTRUSIONS OF MOISTURE FROM THE EAST THAT KICK OFF SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. TODAY WILL DRY OUT AND HEAT UP...BUT A SLIGHT RISK OF
A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. SUNDAY
SOME MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO HUDSPETH COUNTY FOR A SLIGHT SHOT OF A
THUNDERSTORM. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BACK TO JUST NORMAL SUNNY AND
WARM WITH TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL. ANOTHER INTRUSION OF
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
EAST...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AREA. THURSDAY
DRYING WILL SPREAD EASTWARD...BUT AREAS EAST OF EL PASO COULD STILL
SEE A THUNDERSTORM.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS NICE DRYING OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH DEEP
MOISTURE NOW WELL EAST OF THE AREA...THOUGH DRY SLOT IS FILLING BACK
IN SOMEWHAT WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE. AT THE SURFACE...MOISTURE
(HIGH DEWPOINTS) STILL EXTENDS FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
EAST...WHERE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S-LOWER 50S. HI RES
MODELS SHOW MOST SURFACE MOISTURE OUT EAST OF THE CWA EXCEPT THE FAR
EAST. HRRR SHOWS MOISTURE STILL FROM ABOUT ALAMOGORDO TO SIERRA
BLANCA AT 18Z...SO LEFT POPS IN FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS (SAC MTNS)
WITHIN THIS AREA. BY AROUND 21Z MOISTURE HAS BEEN PUSHED OUT OF THE
CWA. THIS IS USUALLY ABOUT THE TIME THE LOWLANDS CAN START FIRING
OFF. BREEZY WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE DRYLINE/CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER WATCH LOOKS REASONABLE AT THIS
TIME. WILL LET FIRE WX DESK DECIDE ON UPGRADE TO RED FLAG A BIT
LATER THIS MORNING. DRYLINE/MOISTURE REMAIN MOSTLY EAST OF THE CWA
AGAIN SATURDAY THOUGH NAM12 AND GFS BOTH SHOW MOISTURE UNDULATING
BACK INTO HUDSPETH COUNTY SO KEPT LOW POP IN THERE. BROAD SCALE LIFT
FROM APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH COULD HELP KICK THE STORMS OFF. STORMS
ON EITHER DAY WILL SEE LITTLE IF ANY DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BUT DECENT
SPEED SHEAR COULD PROVIDE SOME BACK BUILDING STORMS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE QUIET WITH DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPS BACK ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE LOWLANDS SEEING ANOTHER BATCH OF
90 DEGREE DAYS. NEXT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN DRAW THE DRYLINE BACK INTO OUR AREA. GFS BRINGS
THE DRYLINE AND MOISTURE BACK WEST INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY (ECMWF
KEEPS IT EAST OF EL PASO). FOR NOW LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS SINCE
THE DRYLINE HAS BEEN MAKING IT TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...IF NOT
FURTHER WEST. STRONG DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR IN THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG
WITH RELATIVELY HIGH CAPES POINT TOWARD A SMALL RISK OF
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST HALF OF THE CWA. RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY...THOUGH DRYING BEGINS FROM THE
WEST AGAIN. STORMS LIKELY LIMITED TO EAST OF EL PASO.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 22/12Z-23/12Z...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THRU THE PERIOD WITH
P6SM SKC INITIALLY FOLLOWED BY SCT-BKN250 AFTER 18Z. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND FROM THE EAST BEFORE VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST BY 18Z.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO EXCEED 12 KTS BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z WITH
GUSTS 20-25 KTS COMMON AT MOST TAF SITES THRU THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES SLOWLY TRACKS TO OUR
NORTH. THIS WILL CREATE RATHER BREEZY AFTERNOONS ACROSS THE REGION
WHILE BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR BACK TO THE AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE A
DROP IN MIN RH VALUES WITH READINGS IN THE CRITICAL RANGE ACROSS ALL
BUT THE FAR EASTERN ZONES AND SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN BOTH TODAY
AND TOMORROW. RED FLAG CONDITIONS COULD BE MET IN A FEW LOWLAND
SPOTS THE NEXT COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN FIRE ZONES. DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE EASTERN
ZONES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME WETTING PRECIP BY
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 87 61 83 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 87 61 84 52 81 / 0 0 10 10 0
LAS CRUCES 87 50 81 49 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 85 53 82 50 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 62 39 59 37 60 / 10 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 82 50 79 48 81 / 0 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 77 44 70 41 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEMING 85 46 79 46 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 84 45 76 45 81 / 0 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 89 61 84 56 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 84 55 81 50 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 89 62 86 55 85 / 0 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 82 59 79 51 78 / 0 0 0 0 0
FABENS 88 58 84 54 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 89 56 84 52 84 / 0 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 85 57 81 53 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 84 48 80 45 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
HATCH 85 49 80 47 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 83 52 79 50 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 86 57 82 53 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 70 46 69 42 69 / 10 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 72 42 70 40 69 / 10 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 71 44 68 42 69 / 10 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 74 41 71 40 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 81 46 80 44 80 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 84 45 80 45 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 76 40 70 39 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 78 43 73 41 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 81 40 75 40 79 / 0 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 78 38 75 36 77 / 0 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 78 45 75 43 77 / 0 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 82 45 78 46 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 86 44 80 45 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 85 43 81 45 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 78 44 77 43 78 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 2 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR NMZ111.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
HEFNER/LANEY
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
925 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO
STRONG LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE PATTERN OF MORNING CLOUDS WITH
PARTIAL AFTERNOON CLEARING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THE LARGE NE PACIFIC SURFACE HIGH WILL BE DOING ITS
DOMINANT THING FOR THE NEXT WEEK...MAINTAINING MODERATE TO STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS W WA. THIS MORNING THE HIGH IS CENTERED OUT
ALONG 135W TO 140W AND WILL PROBABLY REMAIN THERE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. CLOUD BASES WERE AROUND 1000 FEET THIS MORNING WITH
TOPS AROUND 3000 FEET. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN ONSHORE ALL DAY SO
LITTLE IF ANY BREAKOUT IS EXPECTED.
THE AIR MASS ALOFT IS UNSTABLE AND E FLOW HAS ALLOWED SOME SHOWERS
TO DRIFT OUT OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS MAINLY S OF PUGET SOUND...AS
WELL AS OVER THE OLYMPICS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME PERSISTENT SPORADIC
LIGHTNING AROUND SHELTON. FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED FOR THIS. THE
HRRR STILL SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISHING LATE THIS MORNING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER THE CASCADES
AND OLYMPICS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS
POINT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONLY FORECAST FOR AROUND THE CASCADE
CREST. FLOW ALOFT IS WEAKLY SE SO THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT SOME
CELLS COULD DRIFT W OVER THE LOWLANDS THIS EVENING. THE MAIN CONCERN
IS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A WANDERING THUNDERSTORM OVER
THE LOWLANDS E OF PUGET SOUND.
MODELS SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING JUST OFFSHORE
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN DRIFTING INLAND OVER W WA ON SATURDAY. THE
TROUGH SLIDES OVER E WA ON SUNDAY...BUT THEN AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW MOVES SE OVER W WA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA AND MAINTAIN A GENERALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALOFT INTO
NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE
CASCADES BUT THERE IS PROBABLY A VERY LOW NON-ZERO CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OLYMPICS. DAY-TO-DAY CHANGES IN THE MID LEVEL
STEERING FLOW WILL DETERMINE WHETHER ANY CELLS WILL MAKE IT OVER THE
LOWLANDS. KAM
.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THE 320 AM AFD...THE GENERAL
PATTERN WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH LOW LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW. THERE SHOULD BE MORNING CLOUDS AND SOME AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE EACH DAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS... MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. SCHNEIDER
&&
.AVIATION...WRN WA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK
ELONGATED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WRN BRITISH COLUMBIA THRU
TONIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN LIGHT SLY. CONTD LOW LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW. THE AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON
FOR A FEW TSTMS OVER MAINLY THE MTNS. THE TSTM THREAT SHOULD END
AFTER 0300 UTC.
MEANWHILE...CIGS MAINLY AOB 1K FT BLANKETED MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS
THIS MORNING. TOPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 2500 TO 3500 FT RANGE.
THERE WERE ALSO AREAS OF 4-6SM /DUE TO FOG/ OVER THE COAST THIS
MORNING. THE FOG SHOULD DSIPT BY 2000 UTC. ANTICIPATE CIGS TO
GRADUALLY LIFT DURING THE DAY. BY 0000 UTC...CIGS SHOULD BE MAINLY
IN THE MVFR CATEGORY /1-3K FT/ RANGE OR BETTER.
KSEA...CIGS WILL LIFT INTO THE 2-3K FT RANGE AFTER 1900 UTC...AND
ARE ANTICIPATED BE NEAR 3500 FT BY 0000 UTC. CIGS WILL LOWER INTO
THE 1-2K FT RANGE AFTER 0600 UTC. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SW 5-10
KT.
&&
.MARINE...
THE WEST COMPONENT OF THE PRES GRADIENT CONTINUED TO WEAKEN THIS
MORNING. IT SHOULD PICK BACK UP THIS AFTERNOON BUT VERY CONFIDENT
THAT SPEEDS WILL REACH GALE FORCE OVER PARTS OF THE STRAIT OF JUAN
DE FUCA THIS EVENING. WILL RE-EVALUATE THE SITUATION THIS
AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...PERSISTENT HIGH PRES OFFSHORE WITH LOWER PRES INLAND
WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW OF VARYING STRENGTH
THROUGH TUE.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT TIL 5 AM SATURDAY FOR THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
903 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today: The main changes have been to adjust the areal
coverage of pcpn and sky cover based on the radar loops, vsbl
satellite and sfc obs. The flash food watch for the E Slopes of
the Cascades will remain en effect for recent burn
scars...including the Carlton complex...Mills Canyon...and the
chiwaukum complex. However, given the easterly flow....the
strongest storms are anticipated along the crest of the Cascades.
Blended PW shows anomalous moisture over the Cascades. Slow
steering flow will also help to produce localized, prolonged heavy
downpours. It still looks like the potential for thunder this
afternoon is on track for most of the rest of Ern wa and the Cntrl
Idaho Panhandle as well. The exception may be the N Idaho
Panhandle where the cap is a bit stronger. The high CAPE/weak deep
layer shear profiles support an enhanced heavy downpour threat for
most thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Small hail is also
possible. The highest threat areas will be near the Cascades as
well as the Lewiston/Pullman region and the Cntrl Idaho
Panhandle. bz
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Scattered high based showers will continue to drift
west from the vcnty of KMWH toward the KEAT area this morning,
with mainly light rain expected. Convection will again develop
late today, after 20z. Expect a similar trend as experienced on
Thursday with activity starting in the Blue mountains and Camas
Prairie and than drifting west toward the Cascades. Today
anticipate more development in the Cascades under the easterly
low level flow and the approaching shortwave from the northwest.
The HRRR shows convection will begin to fire over the high terrain
of the Cascades and Blue Mountains after 20z Fri. Gusty outflow
winds and brief heavy rain will be the main threats from
thunderstorms, which should decrease after 03z. /rfox.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 82 53 80 53 79 53 / 10 10 10 10 20 30
Coeur d`Alene 81 52 79 53 79 52 / 10 10 10 10 20 30
Pullman 78 49 73 47 75 49 / 20 10 10 10 10 10
Lewiston 81 56 79 54 82 56 / 30 20 20 20 20 20
Colville 86 53 83 55 82 52 / 10 10 10 10 30 30
Sandpoint 81 50 80 48 77 50 / 10 0 10 10 20 20
Kellogg 81 50 79 49 78 50 / 20 10 30 20 20 20
Moses Lake 84 56 84 55 83 54 / 40 10 10 10 20 20
Wenatchee 82 59 83 58 82 57 / 60 30 10 10 20 20
Omak 86 53 85 54 83 53 / 20 20 10 10 30 20
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this
evening for East Slopes Northern Cascades.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
515 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015
.UPDATE...SHOWERS HAVE BEEN INCREASING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND
AND DRIFTING WEST FROM THE CASCADES INTO THE LOWLANDS FROM ABOUT
EVERETT SOUTHWARD. THE HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
THIS ACTIVITY AND SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS
MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH PUGET SOUND AND THE SOUTHWEST
INTERIOR BEFORE THEY MOSTLY PETER OUT AND BECOME CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR
THESE CHANGES. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND
WAS NOT CHANGED. SCHNEIDER
&&
.SYNOPSIS...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE NEXT
WEEK FOR A PATTERN OF MORNING CLOUDS AND PARTIAL AFTERNOON SUNSHINE
EACH DAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...
MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE STRONGER TODAY COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY. LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SPREADING INTO THE INTERIOR EARLY
THIS MORNING AND SHOULD COVER MOST OF THE LOWLANDS IN A FEW HOURS.
THERE WILL PROBABLY NOT BE MUCH CLEARING TODAY EVEN IN THE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW SUN BREAKS. HIGHS WILL COOL INTO THE
60S. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON WHERE THE AIR MASS IS MOST UNSTABLE.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK LIKE RELATIVE REPEATS OF TODAY WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING AND SOMEWHAT
UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SCHNEIDER
.LONG TERM...THE GENERAL PATTERN WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WITH LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. THERE SHOULD BE MORNING
CLOUDS AND SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE EACH DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS... MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. SCHNEIDER
&&
.AVIATION...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA
WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH TODAY KEEPING THE FLOW ALOFT LIGHT.
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING TODAY. AIR MASS DESTABILIZING OVER
THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS ALONG THE COAST...DOWN THE STRAIT
INTO THE SAN JUANS AND EXTENDING INLAND TO THE CENTRAL PUGET SOUND
AT 10Z. CEILINGS ARE BELOW 1000 FEET WITH THE STRATUS. EXPECT ALL OF
THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS EXCEPT THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS TO BE COVERED IN
STRATUS BY 14Z. ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING TODAY KEEPING THE STRATUS
INTACT OVER THE LOWLANDS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL
SLOWLY LIFT INTO THE 1000-2000 FOOT RANGE BY LATE MORNING AND TO
NEAR 3000 FEET BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR. CEILINGS ALONG
THE COAST WILL STAY IN THE 1000-2000 FOOT RANGE. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR SOME CLEARING WILL BE NEAR KBLI. WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN
CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY MORNING STRATUS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH CEILINGS LOWERING BACK DOWN INTO THE 1000-2000 FOOT
RANGE TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AGAIN
OVER THE CASCADES TONIGHT WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO STAY
NEAR THE CREST.
KSEA...CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET UNTIL LATE MORNING LIFTING TO NEAR
3000 FEET BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS 6 TO 10 KNOTS. FELTON
&&
.MARINE...PERSISTENT HIGH PRES OFFSHORE WITH LOWER PRES INLAND WILL
RESULT IN CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW OF VARYING STRENGTH THROUGH TUE.
ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN STRAIT TONIGHT. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS LATE IN
THE DAY SATURDAY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK FOR THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN STRAIT WITH THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS
TODAY. WITH THE GRADIENT WEAKENING SLIGHTLY LATER TODAY THE WINDS IN
THE OUTER WATERS WILL FALL BELOW 20 KNOTS. WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE WATERS WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FELTON
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING CENTRAL AND EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
320 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE NEXT
WEEK FOR A PATTERN OF MORNING CLOUDS AND PARTIAL AFTERNOON SUNSHINE
EACH DAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...
MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE STRONGER TODAY COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY. LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SPREADING INTO THE INTERIOR EARLY
THIS MORNING AND SHOULD COVER MOST OF THE LOWLANDS IN A FEW HOURS.
THERE WILL PROBABLY NOT BE MUCH CLEARING TODAY EVEN IN THE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW SUN BREAKS. HIGHS WILL COOL INTO THE
60S. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON WHERE THE AIR MASS IS MOST UNSTABLE.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK LIKE RELATIVE REPEATS OF TODAY WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING AND SOMEWHAT
UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SCHNEIDER
.LONG TERM...THE GENERAL PATTERN WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WITH LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. THERE SHOULD BE MORNING
CLOUDS AND SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE EACH DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS... MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. SCHNEIDER
&&
.AVIATION...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA
WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH TODAY KEEPING THE FLOW ALOFT LIGHT.
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING TODAY. AIR MASS DESTABILIZING OVER
THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS ALONG THE COAST...DOWN THE STRAIT
INTO THE SAN JUANS AND EXTENDING INLAND TO THE CENTRAL PUGET SOUND
AT 10Z. CEILINGS ARE BELOW 1000 FEET WITH THE STRATUS. EXPECT ALL OF
THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS EXCEPT THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS TO BE COVERED IN
STRATUS BY 14Z. ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING TODAY KEEPING THE STRATUS
INTACT OVER THE LOWLANDS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL
SLOWLY LIFT INTO THE 1000-2000 FOOT RANGE BY LATE MORNING AND TO
NEAR 3000 FEET BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR. CEILINGS ALONG
THE COAST WILL STAY IN THE 1000-2000 FOOT RANGE. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR SOME CLEARING WILL BE NEAR KBLI. WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN
CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY MORNING STRATUS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH CEILINGS LOWERING BACK DOWN INTO THE 1000-2000 FOOT
RANGE TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AGAIN
OVER THE CASCADES TONIGHT WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO STAY
NEAR THE CREST.
KSEA...CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET UNTIL LATE MORNING LIFTING TO NEAR
3000 FEET BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS 6 TO 10 KNOTS. FELTON
&&
.MARINE...PERSISTENT HIGH PRES OFFSHORE WITH LOWER PRES INLAND WILL
RESULT IN CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW OF VARYING STRENGTH THROUGH TUE.
ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN STRAIT TONIGHT. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS LATE IN
THE DAY SATURDAY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK FOR THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN STRAIT WITH THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS
TODAY. WITH THE GRADIENT WEAKENING SLIGHTLY LATER TODAY THE WINDS IN
THE OUTER WATERS WILL FALL BELOW 20 KNOTS. WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE WATERS WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FELTON
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING CENTRAL AND EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
259 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday night: The weather pattern will see subtle
changes as we move into the holiday weekend, keeping a persistence
forecast with minor adjustments. The upper level pattern remain
diffuse and in chaos with broad trough across the western U.S.
Shortwaves embedded in the trough will provide the lift for
convection. While the main circulation lies over southern CA and
helps pump moisture up across the Rockies into the Pac NW, a
second circulation will be dropping down the BC coast. Even though
somewhat drier northeast flow resides over northeast Washington
and far northern Panhandle, pwats continue to be high, near an
inch, across the Cascades and southern Washington, similar to
yesterday, which will help fuel convection. In fact, yesterday`s
convection developed over southeast Washington and Blue mountains
and took a slow track westward toward the Cascades without any
real kicker. Anticipate similar conditions today, but possibly a
better chance of convection as the northern shortwave approaches.
As this feature arrives in northwest Washington this afternoon, it
will weaken but may provide enough lift to enhance convection in
the Cascades. Wet bulb zero heights will be approaching 10k while
cape values near 1000 j/kg in the Cascades, and even higher in the
Blue mountains by this afternoon. The instability values alone
would lean toward stronger thunderstorms will larger hail, but the
warmer atmosphere may lead to more heavy rain. Given the slow
steer flow and weak shear, would side with heavy rain and possible
flooding as the main impacts. Agree with the current flash
flooding watch for the northern Cascades given the many burn scars
for recent fires and any thunderstorm that sits over a burn area
too long may lead to issues. The Blue mountains area will most
likely see the stronger storms with both heavy rain and hail.
Anticipate the thunder threat to decrease by early evening and the
convection to wane overnight. By Saturday, the drier and more
stable over northeast Washington filters into the region as the
remnants of the shortwave side into Oregon. The bulk of mid/upper
level moisture sinks south of the region. May still see afternoon
convection, but current model runs paint less instability and
moisture over the Inland Northwest, although the areas of concern
will still be near the Cascade crest and the Blue mountains and
the southern ID panhandle. Temperatures were bumped on Saturday
following a more persistence forecast, although not as warm as
experienced yesterday. Expect the diurnally convection to decrease
by Saturday evening with light winds both at the surface and
aloft. /rfox
Sunday and Memorial Day: We should see a subtle change in the
pattern Sunday into Monday which has the potential to shift our
best chances for showers from our southern Panhandle and Cascade
zones to our northeast Washington and north Idaho zones. The
upper low which has been over southern California for the last
week is expected to migrate into the Central Rockies Sunday night
into Monday. A weak, slow moving trough is expected to descend
from British Columbia into western or central Washington Sunday
into Monday. This change in the upper pattern will bring a shift
in our storm steering flow from our current light easterly flow to
our more typical westerly flow by Sunday afternoon. Surface
dewpoints in northeast Washington and far north Idaho should
increase Sunday and Monday yielding higher surface based
instability in places like Colville, Republic, Sandpoint, and
Bonners Ferry. If the GFS, ECMWF and Canadian GEM hold true, our
best chance for showers and thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon will
be over the north Cascades into the Okanogan Highlands. For Monday
afternoon, the focus will shift into the Idaho Panhandle and
northeast Washington. The increased onshore flow Monday should
push high temperature down a few degrees and the increased west to
east pressure gradient should produce more wind (10-15mph out of
the west or southwest).
Tuesday through Thursday: Chances for showers Tuesday through
Thursday will largely vary on what happens to the upper low that
descends from B.C. on Monday. The GFS and Canadian models are very
slow to move this feature suggesting good chances for showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. The ECMWF moves
the upper low out more quickly with less convection Wednesday and
Thursday. Our forecast was based on a troughy GFS ensemble mean.
/GKoch
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Scattered showers is expected for the remainder of
tonight mainly in the Cascades and across Central and southern
section of Eastern Washington and the Lewiston area as moisture
continues to be pulled into the area. A couple stray lightning
strikes will also be possible but should not impact any of the TAF
sites. Afternoon convection will again develop on Friday over
similar areas as today. The HRRR shows convection will begin to
fire over the high terrain of the Cascades and Blue Mountains
around 18z Fri. Gusty outflow winds and brief heavy rain will be
the main threats from Thunderstorms on Friday. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 82 53 80 53 79 53 / 10 10 10 10 20 30
Coeur d`Alene 81 52 79 53 79 52 / 10 10 10 10 20 30
Pullman 75 49 73 47 75 49 / 30 40 20 10 10 10
Lewiston 80 56 79 54 82 56 / 40 40 20 20 20 20
Colville 86 53 83 55 82 52 / 10 10 10 10 30 30
Sandpoint 81 50 80 48 77 50 / 10 0 10 10 20 20
Kellogg 80 50 79 49 78 50 / 20 10 30 20 20 20
Moses Lake 86 56 84 55 83 54 / 20 10 10 10 20 20
Wenatchee 84 59 83 58 82 57 / 50 30 20 10 20 20
Omak 86 53 85 54 83 53 / 20 20 10 10 30 20
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch from 1 PM PDT this afternoon through this
evening for East Slopes Northern Cascades.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND
227 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN FRIDAY AND MOVE
THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND EAST OF THE CASCADES BY FRIDAY
EVENING. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN
WEAKEN A LITTLE SUNDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...GENERALLY BRINGING CONTINUED SHOWER
CHANCES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TONIGHT GENERALLY
FROM THE EASTERN COAST RANGE EAST THROUGH THE CASCADES. WITH THE FLOW
PATTERN HAVING SHIFTED FROM THE NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST...HAVE MADE THE FORECAST PERSISTENT WITH
SHOWER CHANCES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. SOME SHOWERS LOOK LIKE THEY MAY EVEN MAKE IT TOWARD THE
COAST...SO HAVE TAKEN OUT THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE FOR NOW BUT WILL BE
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON HOW THINGS PROGRESS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND MAY MAKE ANOTHER UPDATE BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. AS IT STANDS...THE
SHORT-TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AGREE WITH THE CONTINUATION OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE FRIDAY MORNING HOURS.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A DEEP MARINE
LAYER WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE DRIZZLE
SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL MOVE FURTHER INLAND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT STILL MAY PRODUCE SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS.
MODELS STILL SHOWING LARGE DIFFERENCES SUNDAY AND BEYOND.
IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...THERE WOULD BE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW SUN
WITH LESS AFTERNOON SUN. THE GFS AND NAM HAVE LESS ONSHORE FLOW. IN
ANY EVENT...GENERAL CONDITIONS LOOK STABLE...WITH ANY SHOWER THREAT
CONFINED TO NRN CASCADES. BOWEN/TJ
.LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OR TROUGH SITTING OVER OREGON AND WASHINGTON THROUGH
TUE. MAIN MODEL DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS MAINTAINS A CLOSED
FEATURE...KEEPING IT OVER SW WA...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS MORE OF AN OPEN
TROUGH A LITTLE MORE EAST THAN THE GFS. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL
VERIFIES BEST...THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE CWA WOULD BE
CONTINUED ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITH THE BEST THREAT OF
SHOWERS...ALBEIT SMALL...OVER THE CASCADES. THE GFS HOLDS THE UPPER
LOW SOMEWHERE OVER SE WA WED...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE CASCADES
WED...BUT IF THE GFS IS MORE RIGHT...THEN IT WOULD BE DRY. TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO TOTALLY DISREGARD ANY PRECIP THREAT. WEISHAAR
&&
.AVIATION...AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES...THE LOW END MVFR TO IFR CIGS
ALONG THE COAST ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT UP INTO AN MVFR CIG
TODAY. EXPECT THE MVFR CIGS TO SPREAD INTO INLAND VALLEYS THIS
MORNING...AFFECTING VALLEY TAF SITES BY 12Z. THE INLAND CLOUDS ARE
LIKELY TO BREAK UP INTO A SCATTERED CLOUD LAYER BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z
LEAVING INLAND AREAS VFR. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH 10Z TONIGHT...AND SPREAD BACK INTO INLAND VALLEYS
AGAIN AFTER 09Z.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN BETWEEN 09Z
AND 11Z THIS MORNING...THEN BREAK UP AGAIN TO VFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN
20Z AND 22Z THIS AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW WILL AGAIN SPREAD MARINE
CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS BACK INLAND AFTER 09Z TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...PERSISTENT HIGH PRES WELL OFFSHORE WILL KEEP BELOW SMALL
CRAFT WINDS OUT OF THE NW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FRESH SWELL OF
5 TO 6 FT WILL ALSO CONTINUE OUT OF THE WNW.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1000 PM PDT THU MAY 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
The chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase by Friday
into Monday as a weak low pressure system drops into northwest
Washington. Some of these thunderstorms could produce locally
heavy rain, especially near the Cascades. The weather remains
showery, with some threat of thunderstorms, each day through next
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Update: Satellite composites shows a closed low off the southern
California coast, with another closed low near the Central British
Columbia coast. This pattern is drawing up quite a bit of mid
level moisture across much of the western US...including southeast
Washington extending northwest through the Columbia basin and the
Washington Cascades. For the remainder of tonight models show
some isolated/scattered shower activity to persist in the same
aformentioned areas as moisture continues to get drawn up into the
area. Mid level instability with MUCAPE values around 200-400 J/KG
could also result in a few stray thunderstorms mainly in the
evening as the instability begins to decrease during the overnight
hours. Conditions will remain dry across Northeast Washington into
the North Idaho Panhandle. The forecast overall looks good and do
not plan any major updates for the rest of tonight.
For tomorrow the concern for flash flooding in the Cascades
remains valid with slow moving wet thunderstorms expected.
A flash flood watch remains in effect for Friday afternoon and
evening. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Scattered showers is expected for the remainder of
tonight mainly in the Cascades and across Central and southern
section of Eastern Washington and the Lewiston area as moisture
continues to be pulled into the area. A couple stray lightning
strikes will also be possible but should not impact any of the TAF
sites. Afternoon convection will again develop on Friday over
similar areas as today. The HRRR shows convection will begin to
fire over the high terrain of the Cascades and Blue Mountains
around 18z Fri. Gusty outflow winds and brief heavy rain will be
the main threats from Thunderstorms on Friday. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 53 80 52 72 47 76 / 10 10 30 30 30 30
Coeur d`Alene 51 80 51 72 48 76 / 10 10 20 30 30 30
Pullman 50 75 47 67 43 70 / 20 30 50 40 40 40
Lewiston 58 79 54 73 52 77 / 20 40 60 50 40 30
Colville 52 84 53 80 50 79 / 10 10 10 20 20 30
Sandpoint 47 80 48 75 47 76 / 0 10 20 30 20 20
Kellogg 49 79 49 72 45 76 / 10 20 30 40 40 30
Moses Lake 55 85 52 76 50 76 / 20 30 30 30 40 30
Wenatchee 60 82 56 76 55 76 / 20 50 40 50 30 30
Omak 52 86 54 79 52 77 / 20 30 30 50 40 40
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
for East Slopes Northern Cascades.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1043 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
.UPDATE...A W-E BAND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NWD ACROSS SRN
WI SUN AM INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A ROUND OF LOW TO MID
LEVEL WARM...MOIST ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS. THIS IS SUPPORTED
BY THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM. THERE MAY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
FOR THE EVENING AS THE LLJ INCREASES OUT OF THE SW...AND YET
ANOTHER ROUND MON AM AS CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES FROM ERN KS TO SRN MN.
THE NOSE OF A 50 KT LLJ ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLOGENESIS WILL MOVE
INTO SRN WI MON AM ALONG WITH PVA ALOFT FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH. CHANCES OF THUNDER WILL REMAIN VERY SMALL GIVEN POOR MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...INTERMITTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS SUN AM WILL LOWER TO 3.5-5.0 KFT
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BUT SOME AREAS OF 1.0-3.0 KFT CIGS
ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES. MVFR VSBYS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES WITH THE
RAIN BUT ALSO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SUN NT VIA LIGHT FOG. THE FOG
MAY BE A LITTLE HEAVIER NEAR LAKE MI.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
AREA OF LIGHT REFLECTIVITY RETURNS OVER NORTHEAST IOWA CONTINUE TO
MOVE CLOSER TO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE ARE LIKELY SPRINKLES AT WORST...AS CLOUD BASES ARE
AROUND 12000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. THESE WERE BRING DRIVEN BY 700
MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A WEAK 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM. THESE
SPRINKLES MAY MAKE IT INTO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH MESOSCALE MODELS WEAKEN THEM BEFORE THEY GET
HERE. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST...GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN
THE LOW LEVELS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE
AREA TONIGHT AND LINGER ON SUNDAY. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT...AS AIRMASS REMAINS DRY. LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID 50S
IN MOST AREAS...PER 925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS ON MODELS.
CONTINUED TO RAMP UP POPS SUNDAY...AS 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE STREAM INTO THE REGION. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
GET STRONG SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO KEPT HIGHEST POPS FOR THIS PORTION
OF THE DAY. SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE ALSO MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS WERE SHOWING MAINLY MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILES
WITH VERY WEAK MEAN LAYER CAPE. THUS...HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDER. SOME DRYNESS IN THE LOW LEVELS WERE ALSO NOTED...ESPECIALLY
TOWARD FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. SO...THIS AREA MAY SEE MORE
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION THAN TO THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER
WITH THE CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIPITATION...IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
INLAND...60S LAKESIDE.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME EVENING/OVERNIGHT CONVECTION THROUGH
INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK GIVEN THE WARM AIR ALOFT IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY EVENING...BUT SOME OF THE 23.12Z GUIDANCE
APPEARS TO BE SLOWING DOWN THE NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT AND THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
THE DEEPER FORCING WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT ON INTO THE MORNING OF
MEMORIAL DAY AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROPAGATES NORTHWARD
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO BE LOW AT ABOUT 50-150 J/KG...SO LIGHTNING SHOULD NOT BE
VERY FREQUENT WITH ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL ON THE LOW SIDE AS WELL.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARD LAKE
SUPERIOR...DRIER AIR WILL GET PULLED IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THINGS DRY MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN AND A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM...
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.
THE MORE INTERESTING DAY COULD END UP BEING TUESDAY AS THE 23.12Z
NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL SHOW A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE
LOW COMING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION WILL BE WITH HOW
MUCH INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AND HOW POTENT THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BE SINCE THE 23.12Z NAM/ECMWF SHOW A WEAKER...POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH WHILE THE 23.12Z GFS20 HAS A NEGATIVELY TILTED AND
ALMOST CLOSED OFF TROUGH COMING THROUGH. 23.12Z NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS
SHOW FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THOUGH THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN
SPEED WITH HEIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE DEPARTING THE REGION WEDNESDAY THOUGH AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH/TRAILING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY
BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF POTENTIAL RAIN MOVES
IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM/COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
GIVEN THE ALMOST ZONAL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...GETTING THE
TIMING DOWN OF ANY SYSTEM THIS FAR OUT WILL BE DIFFICULT.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MOST OF SUNDAY ACROSS TAF
SITES. MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT...REMAINING CLOUDY ON SUNDAY. SOUTHEAST LAKE BREEZE
WILL REMAIN UNTIL EARLY EVENING AT EASTERN SITES...WITH LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS AT MADISON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...INCREASING IN SPEED DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD INTO MADISON BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY...AND THE EASTERN SITES BY MID AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE SCATTERED TOWARD THE EASTERN SITES THAN AT
MADISON. WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER IN TAFS SUNDAY...AS RISK IS LOW
WITH FAIRLY STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. MAY SEE MVFR CATEGORY CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES DEVELOP WITH THE SHOWERS AT TIMES...BUT LEFT OUT OF
TAFS FOR NOW.
MARINE...
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN...AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION. FREQUENT GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE...PERHAPS LINGERING INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
443 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD
RAIN...FLOODING...AND A FEW TORNADOES LAST NIGHT TO OKLAHOMA HAS
CONTINUED ITS SLOW MARCH EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE
BEGUN TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
THIRD OF THE STATE. WRF AND HRRR DISAGREE WITH HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL
EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT EIGHT HOURS OR SO. THE WRF SHOWS THE LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEAKENING AROUND MID DAY...BEFORE
REDEVELOPING AFTER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AM LEANING TOWARDS THE
HRRR WHICH SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO FALL
THROUGH THE DAY...AS PRECIPITATION SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE EAST. WITH
HIGH PRECIPTABLE WATER VALUES AROUND THE STATE...THESE TRAINING
STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS WITH RAIN RATES TOPPING OUT AT
1.5 INCHES PER HOUR.
ON TOP OF EVERYTHING...A BREEZY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH
SUSTAINED SE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE.
DID GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS A POSSIBILITY TODAY AS WELL. MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT FANTASTIC...HOWEVER CAPE VALUES WILL BE IN EXCESS OF
1000 J PER KG. WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SE AT THE SURFACE...HELICITY
VALUES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW TORNADOES.
BUT BY FAR THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.
OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS...PORTIONS OF WESTERN ARKANSAS HAVE SEEN
BETWEEN 10 TO 14 INCHES OF RAIN...WHICH IS ROUGHLY 4 TO 6 TIMES
NORMAL. COMBINE THIS WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BETWEEN 1.5 TO OVER 2 INCHES...WHICH IS 1 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...AND HEAVY RAIN AND LIFE THREATENING FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY.
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE TWO ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN...WITH THE FIRST
ROUND SUNDAY WITH TWO TO FOUR INCHES POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN
ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS. DO EXPECT THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE
PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY BEFORE THE SECOND ROUND OF
HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID DAY TUESDAY. MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A PERIOD OF VERY HEAVY RAIN MONDAY
NIGHT. AGAIN...DO EXPECT THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT DID GO AND ISSUE AND
EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO THE ENTIRE AREA AND GO THROUGH 18Z
TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
MODELS INDC A WEAK UPR RDG WL SET UP ALONG THE MS RVR VALLEY LATE IN
THE WEEK. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE RMNG IN PLACE ACRS THE MID
SOUTH...SCTD MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY. A
STRONGER UPR LVL STORM SYS IS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE LATE IN THE PD.
KEPT POPS IN CHC CAT THIS FAR IN ADVANCE AS CHGS IN TIMING/STRENGTH
ARE LIKELY WITH THIS SYS WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 80 67 78 65 / 70 80 50 80
CAMDEN AR 83 68 82 69 / 70 80 90 90
HARRISON AR 74 65 79 62 / 100 80 40 80
HOT SPRINGS AR 80 67 81 68 / 80 80 80 90
LITTLE ROCK AR 82 68 82 67 / 70 80 60 90
MONTICELLO AR 85 70 83 69 / 60 80 90 90
MOUNT IDA AR 76 68 78 67 / 80 80 80 80
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 75 65 80 64 / 80 80 30 80
NEWPORT AR 81 69 80 67 / 70 80 60 80
PINE BLUFF AR 83 68 81 69 / 70 80 80 90
RUSSELLVILLE AR 79 65 82 66 / 80 80 60 80
SEARCY AR 81 66 80 68 / 70 80 50 80
STUTTGART AR 83 69 82 69 / 70 80 60 80
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-
CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-
HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-
POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN
BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-
CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-
GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-
JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-
OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-
SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65 / LONG TERM...44
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1204 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
.AVIATION...
ISOLD CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL MOST LIKELY
NOT AFFECT ANY TERMINALS UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING. INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BRING LOW CIGS BACK TO AREA TERMINALS
THIS MORNING...WHICH ARE LIKELY TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE PD...AS
CONVECTION BECOMES WIDESPREAD BY THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION WILL DECREASE AFTER 00Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PD.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SELY WINDS AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT TO INCREASE
TO BETWEEN 12 AND 18 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING SUNDAY. /12/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 908 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
DISCUSSION...
INCREDIBLE RAINFALL OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS
AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
HELPING TO DRIVE THESE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES NORTH AND EAST
INTO THIS REGION. 00Z RAOB FROM FWD SHOWING A NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE THIS EVENING AND WITH STRONG DIVERGENT
FLOW ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A NEARLY 100KT UPPER
LEVEL JET ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY...YOU HAVE ALL THE INGREDIENTS
NECESSARY FOR AN EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT THROUGH THE
NIGHT. IN FACT...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN
OVERNIGHT...I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE THE FLOODING TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND FURTHER SOUTH
INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA OR INTO THE MIDDLE RED RIVER BASIN...
EXACTLY WHERE THE RAINFALL IS NOT NEEDED.
THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHEN WILL THIS PRECIPITATION BEGIN
TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE INTO OUR REGION. LATEST OOZ WRF AND
ACCOMPANYING HRRR ARE WANTING TO KEEP A BULK OF THIS PRECIPITATION
OUT OF OUR REGION UNTIL 12Z WHEN THEY FINALLY BEGIN TO BRING SOME
SORT OF LINEAR CONVECTION INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES. GIVEN THAT THE
COLD POOL THAT WAS GENERATED EARLIER WITH THE CENTRAL OK CONVECTION
HAS ALL BUT STALLED WITH THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY HAVING MET UP
WITH IT JUST NORTH OF THE RED RIVER...THIS LATER SCENARIO SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE.
OUR FLASH FLOOD WATCH BEGINS AT 4 AM AND THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH
GOING ON ACROSS OUR REGION AT THAT TIME...EXCEPT MAYBE ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR. WILL ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION
HOWEVER AND KEEP EVERYTHING AS IS CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THE
WATCH AND THE OVERNIGHT POP FORECAST. MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER IS
WIDESPREAD AND WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE LOWER CEILINGS DEVELOP FROM
THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT AS WELL. GIVEN THE STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE...WOULD NOT EXPECT TO SEE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
FALL TOO MUCH MORE BUT THAT COULD CHANGE IF WE BEGIN TO SEE SOONER
THAN EXPECTED RAINFALL. THEREFORE WILL KEEP CURRENT MIN FCST AS
IS.
NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE CURRENT FCST ATTM.
13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 71 81 69 81 / 40 80 80 80
MLU 70 85 70 81 / 30 60 80 70
DEQ 68 75 67 79 / 70 90 80 80
TXK 70 79 69 80 / 60 80 80 80
ELD 69 82 69 80 / 40 70 80 70
TYR 71 77 70 80 / 60 80 70 80
GGG 71 79 70 81 / 50 80 70 80
LFK 73 79 72 81 / 40 80 70 80
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR LAZ001>004-010>012-017-018.
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR OKZ077.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
&&
$$
12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
106 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
UT...A RIDGE FROM THE SE CONUS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND A TROUGH
OVER NE CANADA RESULTING IN CONFLUENT WNW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN
LAKES. AT THE SFC...SW TO W WINDS PREVAILED OVER MOST OF UPPER MI
BUT WERE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO MOVE INTO THE N
CNTRL. MIXING AOA 10K FT HAS HELPED DROP DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S. WITH TEMPS ALSO INTO THE UPPER 70S...RH VALUES HAVE DROPPED
INTO THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE. VIS LOOP INDICATEED SCT DIURNAL CU
ALONG WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE MN/WI.
TONIGHT...WITH PERSISTENT SW WINDS AND INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS...MIN READINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH
THE WARMEST CONDITIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
PREVAIL.
SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SFC AND MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE PLAINS WITH CONTINUED RIDING INTO THE NRN LAKES. HOWEVER SW
TO W MID LEVEL FLOW BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE WITH 300K-310K
ISENTROPIC ASCENT TOWARD THE AREA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
TOWARD THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT THAT THE ONSET OF THE
PCPN MAY BE DELAYED BY CONTINUE DRY LOW LEVELS. TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN
CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S BUT WILL BE LIMITED BY INCREASING CLOUD
THICKNESS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015
UPPER AIR PATTERN TO START LONG TERM SHOWS LARGER TROUGH FM WESTERN
CANADA INTO THE PLAIN STATES. RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER SE CONUS
EXTENDS RIDGE BACK OVER GREAT LAKES. SHORTWAVE ON LEADING EDGE OF
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH LIFTS TOWARD UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE WAVE...SEEN IN H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT FIELDS...
COMBINES WITH LARGER SCALE ASCENT IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 130+
KT JET STREAK FM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO NEW ENGLAND TO BRING A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS ACROSS CWA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTN.
SHOWERS SHOULD END FIRST ALONG THE WI BORDER ON MONDAY MORNING AND
THEN ALONG LK SUPERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON. ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOWS
UP SOME WITH SI/S LOWERING TOWARD 0-1C BUT THAT ARRIVES AFTER MAIN
FORCING MOVES ACROSS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOR TSRA AT THIS POINT.
RAIN COULD FALL HEAVY AT TIMES GIVEN PWATS BY 12Z MONDAY AT KGRB
THAT WOULD BE IN THE HIGHEST 5 PCT COMPARED TO CLIMO FOR THE DATE.
ESE-E WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT/ADVECTION OF
HIGHER DWPNTS AND RAIN OVER ALL THE AREA POINTS TO FOG OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/ADJACENT SHORELINES AND ALSO OVER KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CNTRL CWA BTWN KIMT AND MARQUETTE.
UNCERTAINTY IN POPS/WX LATE MONDAY AFTN INTO MONDAY EVENING BUT
GENERALLY EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER DUE TO MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND
DRYING THAT MOVES OVERHEAD IN WAKE OF PRIMARY SHORTWAVE. LIKELY WILL
BE LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...THOUGH SSW BLYR WINDS DO NOT FAVOR
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS SINCE THAT PROVIDES MINIMAL TRAJECTORIES OFF
THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FM THE GREAT LAKES. GIVEN THE SSW WINDS ALSO
DIMINISHED FOG ON THE LAND AREAS...AT LEAST AWAY FM LK MICHIGAN AND
THE OPEN WATERS OF LK SUPERIOR. NAM INDICATES ENOUGH ADDITIONAL MID-
LEVEL MOSITURE MOVES IN BY EVENING TO COMBINE WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE CONVECTION. SINCE NAM IS ONLY MODEL
INDICATING THIS AT PRESENT...WILL DISCOUNT THAT IDEA AND CONTINUE TO
DOWNPLAY POPS. TEMPS ON MONDAY DEPEND ON EXTENT OF CLEARING. WILL
NOT TAKE MUCH TO BOOST TEMPS WITH WARM TEMPS ALOFT IN WARM SECTOR OF
SFC LOW THAT WILL BE NW OF LK SUPERIOR BY 00Z TUE. MIXING TO H9
RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S...SO INCREASED MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY.
LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MAIN FRONT SWINGS ACROSS UPPER
GREAT LAKES AS SFC LOW TRACKS NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR. VARYING IDEAS ON
STRENGTH AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT. GFS MOST AGRESSIVE WITH THAT IDEA WHERE ECMWF AND GEM ARE NOT
AS BULLISH. KEPT IT SIMPLE AND RETAINED LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF FRONT MOVING THROUGH. BASED ON SW H85 THETA-E ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND AT LEAST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF ELEVATED
CAPE...ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER OVER EAST HALF OF CWA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...KEPT THE FOG GOING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEAR LK MICHIGAN AT LEAST FOR THE MORNING ON
TUESDAY. ENOUGH DRYING DEVELOPS LATER IN THE DAY TO DISSIPATE THE
FOG. TEMPS ON TUESDAY COOLEST OVER NW CWA AND NEAR LK MICHIGAN WITH
MORE PRONOUNCED ONSHORE FLOW. EVEN FOR THOSE AREAS THOUGH...TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE 60S. MAX TEMPS REACH MID 70S INLAND TOWARD WI BORDER.
REST OF EXTENDED INDICATES MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
ANOTHER FRONT BRINGING SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
BASED ON LATEST ECMWF WHICH TRENDED TOWARD LAST COUPLE RUNS OF
GFS...APPEARS THAT NEXT WEEKEND WOULD BE DRIER AS MORE ACTIVE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
KEPT LOW CHANCES THAT CONSENSUS GAVE ATTM...BUT IF THESE MODEL
TRENDS CONTINUE...LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE POPS FM NEXT
SATURDAY. OVERALL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL.
GIVEN THE LACK OF REAL COOLING AT H85 OTHER THAN WITH THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY...COULD SEE TEMPS MOST DAYS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY PUSH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID-UPR 70S.
NIGHTTIME LOWS SHOULD STAY SAFELY ABOVE FREEZING...WITH MAINLY 40S
TO AROUND 50 DEGREES EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPS MOVE BACK IN NEXT
WEEKEND AS COOLER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...DRY AIR
WILL LINGER AT THE LOWER LEVELS THRU AT LEAST EARLY THIS EVENING...
RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. LATE THIS
EVENING AND JUST BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD...AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL
LIFT N INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...BRINGING DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS. PCPN SHOULD ADVANCE AS FAR N AND NE AS KIWD JUST BEFORE
THE END OF THIS FCST PERIOD. BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD...CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY FALL TO IFR OR LOWER AT ALL TERMINALS BY SUNRISE MON.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015
SW-W WINDS TO 25 KTS...EVEN GREATER THAN 30 KTS AT HIGHER LEVEL
OBSERVATION PLATFORMS...DIMINISHES THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS THEN
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KTS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING TO 20-25 KTS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS TO NORTHWEST LK SUPERIOR. STRONGEST WINDS
SHOULD OCCUR ON MONDAY OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS WILL
TURN NORTHEAST DUE TO FUNNELLING. FOG SHOULD DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND THIS WILL LINGER OVER MUCH OF LK SUPERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. FOG MAY BECOME DENSE AT TIMES. WINDS BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT
DIMINISH TO 20 KTS OR LESS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1125 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 923 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
UPDATE...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE CLOUDS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES OVER OKLAHOMA
AND TEXAS. LATEST HRRR SHOWS REMNANT SHOWERS FROM THESE COMPLEXES
MOVING INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. CURRENT FORECAST
HAS A GOOD HANDLE. NO UPDATES ARE EXPECTED.
KRM
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
THE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WHICH WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS THIS MORNING HAS NOW REACHED SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND IS
OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CURRENTLY A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH
NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND INTO SOUTH MISSISSIPPI. THIS WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS BY
SUNDAY MORNING. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY MAY REACH WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILDER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE
LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WITH LOWS SUNDAY MORNING IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S.
ON SUNDAY...THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND REACH
INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI BY SUNDAY EVENING. AS A RESULT MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY WARM WITH HIGH IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S. BY SUNDAY NIGHT A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION PRODUCING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL REMAIN
WARM SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING AROUND 70
DEGREES.
ON MONDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION
BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO PARTS OF EAST ARKANSAS AND A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BUT A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO ISSUE IT YET
AS SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO HOW MUCH RAIN IS EXPECTED. WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH
HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES.
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE SO THERE WILL BE MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY SO
THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THIS PERIOD.
THURSDAY WILL SEE WEATHER MORE LIKE SUMMER WITH A FEW AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE REGION STARTING
THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. THIS WILL SET
UP MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD.
ARS
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. A FEW SHRAS ARE POSSIBLE AT KMEM
AND KJBR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. THOSE WILL LIFT NORTH BY
24/14Z WITH VFR AND BREEZY CONDS DURING THE DAY. SE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT THEN VEER SOUTH AND CONTINUE TO
INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH INTO THE MIDSOUTH SUNDAY EVENING
RESULTING IN SHRAS AND TSRAS AT KJBR AND KMEM BY 25/03Z.
SJM
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
114 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
.AVIATION... /06Z TAF UPDATE/
CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED OVER AUS TEMPORARILY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
REDEVELOP OVER SAT/SSF FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. TSRA SHOULD BE MORE
ISOLATED AROUND DRT AND WILL KEEP ONLY A MENTION OF VCSH FOR THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. A STRONG CONVECTIVE BAND MOVING THROUGH THE
HILL COUNTRY SHOULD IMPACT SAT/SSF IN THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS AND IN
THE AUS AREA AS LATE AS 11Z. SOME WEAKENING OF THESE CELLS MAY
DEVELOP AS THEY MOVE INTO DOWNDRAFT INFLUENCED AIR ALONG I-35. BY
12Z CONVECTION COULD BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND MAINLY EAST OF
I-35 WITH MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGESTING SLIGHTLY INCREASED STABILITY
BY MIDDAY. WILL LEAVE OUT THE SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORM THREAT FOR
NOW AND FOCUS ON THE MORE LIKELY EXPECTATION FOR LOWERING CIGS
TOMORROW EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
AN ACTIVE AND COMPLEX FORECAST IS SHAPING UP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BOTH
SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM ON SUNDAY.
IN ADDITION TO THE SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THAT IS ONGOING CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY AND I-35
CORRIDOR CONVECTION HAS BEGUN ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE BIG
BEND REGION. THIS IS THE START OF A LARGE LINEAR MCS THAT ALL OF
THE MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING
INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS
BEEN SITTING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PROVIDING THE LIFT FOR
THIS MCS. THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW 70S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2
INCHES. THERE IS ALSO PLENTY OF INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA WITH
THE MORNING DRT AND CRP SOUNDINGS BOTH HAVING 2000 - 3000 J/KG OF
CAPE. A GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL AND BULK SHEAR IS ALSO EVIDENT
ACCORDING TO THE MODELS. THIS MEANS THAT ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS
ARE IN PLACE FOR BOTH HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TOMORROW. WILL
BREAKDOWN THE THREATS AND THE TIME PERIODS IN THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM AFD.
FOR TONIGHT...AS ALREADY DISCUSSED...THE MESOSCALE MODELS DEVELOP
A COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. TIMING FOR THIS CONTINUES TO GET EARLIER. THE NSSL WRF
AND ARM BOTH HAVE THE LINE APPROACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON. THE TEXAS TECH WRF AND HRRR AND NMM ALL SAY THAT
THE LINE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY AND APPROACHING
THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY 9PM AND SLOWLY PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS THE EARLIER
TIMING IS BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE LIKELY. MODELS ARE STILL HOLDING
ONTO 1-3 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE OF
CONVECTION. THIS...ON TOP OF ADDITIONAL RAINS THAT HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN TODAY...AND THE FACT THAT SOILS ARE SATURATED WILL LEAD TO
THE THREAT OF BOTH RIVER FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. WHILE CONVECTION GROUPING
TOGETHER LIKE THIS TYPICAL MEANS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
A LITTLE BIT LESS...CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE VERY FAVORABLE. THE
MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE FIRST DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS WITHIN
BOWING SECTIONS OF THE LINE. THE HRRR ACTUAL SUPPORTS THIS WITH
SEVERAL BOWING SECTIONS BEING SHOWN IN THE MODEL REFLECTIVITY.
THERE IS ALSO SUFFICIENT SURFACE WIND SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES
TO RESULT IN AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS WINDS PROFILES TURN
WITH HEIGHT.
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IT IS IMPERATIVE THAT THOSE OUT AND
ABOUT FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY THOSE ON LOCAL RIVERS
AND LAKES...MONITOR THE WEATHER AND BE READY TO ACT SHOULD A
WARNING BE ISSUED FOR THEIR AREA. HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE
WEATHER INFORMATION...HAVE A PLAN TO SEEK SHELTER OR GET TO SAFETY
SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING OCCUR...AND ALWAYS REMEMBER TO
TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
AS WE GET INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH
CONTINUED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS NOW
SHOW THE LINE MOVING OUT OF OUR CWA BY 09Z TO 12Z (4 TO 7 AM).
BEHIND THE LINE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SOME WHAT WORKED OVER FROM
THE NIGHT OF STORMS. ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW OVER 3000 J/KG
OF CAPE...SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY...DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THE SAME SOUNDINGS SHOW SIGNIFICANT LOW
AND UPPER LEVEL DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS SHOULD LIMIT SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS SUNDAYS. MESOSCALE MODELS LIKE THE ARM/NMM/NSSL WRF DO SHOW
SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LIMITED.
TO SUMMARIZE THE NEXT 24 HOURS...1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IN EFFECT. THE LINE SHOULD BE PUSHING OUT OF OUR AREA
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WINDS
ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO EXIST WITH THE LINE. BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. EVERYONE SHOULD BE
WEATHER AWARE FOR THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY THOSE OUT AND ABOUT ON
AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE BREAK FROM THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES ON MONDAY.
THIS DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND GIVE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN AND
STORMS. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BEST TIMING FOR ANOTHER WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM AROUND LUNCH TIME THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MODEL QPF (FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF) FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
SUGGEST ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REMAIN OVER 1.5 INCHES AS WELL. LATER SHIFTS WOULD POSSIBLE NEED
TO CONSIDER EXTENDING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO MONDAY AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASES. THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO
RETURN ON MONDAY. SPC HAS THE AREA CURRENTLY BLANKETED IN A DAY 3
SLIGHT RISK. MODEL SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES
SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. STORM
MODE AND COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL DETERMINE THE OVERALL THREAT OF
TORNADOES AS CHANCES ARE BETTER WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OR MCS STORM MODES. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY CLOSELY. STRESSING
AGAIN...ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE HOLIDAY NEEDS TO MAKE
SURE THEY ARE WEATHER AWARE AND HAVE A PLAN TO SEEK SHELTER SHOULD
SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOP.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FOR TUESDAY IS MORE ZONAL WITH SOME SLIGHT
RIDGING FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER REDUCTION IN POP
CHANCES FOR MID-WEEK. BY THE END OF THE WEEK ANOTHER LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE WEST RETURNING THE AREA TO A
SIMILAR PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN IN FOR THE LAST FEW WEEKS WITH A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH SENDING A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE
AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 81 70 81 69 87 / 80 40 80 60 30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 82 69 81 68 87 / 80 40 80 60 30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 83 69 81 70 87 / 70 40 80 50 30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 81 69 80 67 85 / 60 30 80 50 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 90 71 89 69 90 / 20 20 60 20 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 80 69 80 68 86 / 70 30 80 50 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 85 70 83 69 87 / 50 30 80 40 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 82 69 81 69 86 / 80 40 80 60 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 82 71 82 71 86 / 90 50 80 70 40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 84 71 82 71 87 / 60 30 80 50 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 84 71 83 71 88 / 60 40 80 50 30
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...
COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...
GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...
LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...
VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1149 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015
THE UPPER LOW IS SITUATED ALONG THE CO/UT BORDER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO IN SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT. STRENGTHENING EAST-SOUTHEAST SFC FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM COMBINED WITH PLENTIFUL MID LEVEL ENERGY AND UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS ALLOWING FOR A FAIRLY BROAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE INITIAL WAVE OF STORMS
OCCURRED SHORTLY AFTER THE NOON HOUR OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY WHERE
SKIES WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR. FURTHER EAST...CLOUDS NEVER FULLY BROKE
ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE PLAINS BUT SEEMED TO BE ENOUGH TO
DESTABILIZE THE AREA FOR MODERATE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN
STRONG UPPER LEVEL FORCING. ALTHOUGH OVERALL DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS
NOT BEEN ON THE WHOLE IMPRESSIVE AT 30 TO 40 KTS...LOCALIZED
POCKETS OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL SHEAR LIKELY DEVELOPED ALONG
BOUNDARIES NEAR TERRAIN FEATURES SUCH AS THE CHEYENNE RIDGE NEAR
SIDNEY AND JUST WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE NEAR BOSLER WITHIN THE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...AND LIKELY CONTRIBUTED TO BRIEF TORNADO
TOUCHDOWNS AND FUNNEL CLOUDS IN THESE AREAS.
HOWEVER...FOCUS HAS TRANSITIONED MORE TO POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS DUE TO CONTINUED
BOUNDARY ACTION...MOISTURE ADVECTION IN UPSLOPE FLOW AND WAA. WENT
AHEAD AND ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AND PLATTE...GOSHEN...AND LARAMIE COUNTIES IN WYOMING
FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH HEAVY RAINFALL FROM
STORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS...WILL NOT
TAKE MUCH FOR FLOODING TO OCCUR IN THESE AREAS. FOR
TONIGHT...GUIDANCE SHOWS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING ALONG THE INVERTED SFC TROUGH SETTING UP ALONG
THE MOUNTAINS...AND WITHIN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND CONTINUED
UPPER FORCING AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS WYOMING. SO
EXPECT TO SEE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH CANT
RULE OUT A FEW HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE
PLAINS AS WELL. THE FOCUS FOR BEST FORCING WILL BE ALONG A LINE
FROM EAST-CENTRAL WYOMING TO SOUTH-CENTRAL WYOMING WHERE THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SET UP AND AT THE NOSE OF THE INVERTED
TROUGH...SO WENT WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
ALONG THIS AREA WHICH INCLUDES CONVERSE...NORTHERN ALBANY...AND
NORTHERN CARBON COUNTIES FOR EXPECTED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TO
PERSIST. LOOKING AT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR NOW...BUT
LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL ESPECIALLY ALONG
FAVORED TERRAIN FEATURES.
THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY AND BECOME AN OPEN WAVE BY
MONDAY. COLD AIR WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THIS TIME WHILE A
SFC COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA LATE SUNDAY.
CONTINUED SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REDEVELOP THE STRATUS/FOG DECK WHICH
SHOULD STRUGGLE TO BREAK AGAIN ON SUNDAY...BUT GUIDANCE DOES SHOW
SOME HIGHER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE SO PERHAPS THERE
WILL BE MORE CLEARING IN THIS AREA. THUS WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF
A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ONCE AGAIN IN ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITHIN THE POCKETS OF CLEARING WITHIN MODEST SHEAR. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH SLOW ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR INSTABILITY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. WEAK WINDS ALOFT WILL
PROMOTE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS AS PLENTIFUL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015
THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE TYPICAL FOR LATE MAY TUESDAY THRU
SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN RELATIVELY WEAK
FLOW PASS THRU THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AND GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL STILL BE AROUND...EXPECT
TO SEE MORE SUN NEXT WEEK THAN THE PAST FEW. MORE SUNSHINE WILL
ALLOW FOR WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL BE THE CULPRIT
FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING INSTABILITY AND RESULTANT CONVECTIVE
CHANCES. BRIEF TRANSITORY RIDGE EARLY TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
BACKING FLOW AS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGS INTO THE PACIFIC
NW. MODELS PUT THE TRANSITORY RIDGE AXIS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
WY/NE STATELINE WHICH WILL BE A GOOD MEASURE OF THE EASTERN EXTENT
OF THE CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WILL INCH CLOSER
FOR WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO INCREASE TO MORE
SCATTERED COMPARED TO TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW STRONG STORMS ON
WEDNESDAY AS SBCAPES ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 600-1000
J/KG. UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE FINALLY REACHES WRN WY BY THURSDAY...BUT
EXPECT A GENERAL REPEAT FOR THURSDAY. THE SHORTWAVE FINALLY PASSES
THRU FRIDAY...GIVING WAY TO...AT LEAST IF YOU BELIEVE THE ECMWF
MODEL...A BUILDING RIDGE AND DRYING CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER NEXT
WEEK...WITH GENERALLY 60S OVR SE WY AND LOW/MID 70S ACROSS THE WRN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015
LATEST HRRR AND NAM MODELS LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO
IFR/LIFR ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE...RAIN AND FOG.
LARAMIE AND RAWLINS CAN EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK
AND WILL BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES ACROSS THE DISTRICT.
WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE ANTICIPATED...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
EXPECTED.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR WYZ106>108-118-
119.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR WYZ101-103>105-
109.
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR NEZ019>021-054-
055.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...MAJ
FIRE WEATHER...RJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
651 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
.AVIATION...24/12Z TAF CYCLE
SCTD SHRA/TSRA WL BE NOTED ACRS THE AREA THIS MRNG...ALONG WITH
OCNL STRATUS. THIS WL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDS. CONVECTION
WL BCM MORE WIDESPREAD ACRS AR THIS AFTN AND TNGT...WITH CONDS
DETERIORATING. PRIMARILY EXPECT MVFR CONDS BY THAT TIME...WITH IFR
CIGS/VSBYS WHERE STRONGER STORMS OCCUR. BREEZY S/SELY SFC WINDS WL
ALSO BE COMMON THRU MUCH OF THE PD. /44/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD
RAIN...FLOODING...AND A FEW TORNADOES LAST NIGHT TO OKLAHOMA HAS
CONTINUED ITS SLOW MARCH EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE
BEGUN TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
THIRD OF THE STATE. WRF AND HRRR DISAGREE WITH HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL
EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT EIGHT HOURS OR SO. THE WRF SHOWS THE LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEAKENING AROUND MID DAY...BEFORE
REDEVELOPING AFTER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AM LEANING TOWARDS THE
HRRR WHICH SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO FALL
THROUGH THE DAY...AS PRECIPITATION SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE EAST. WITH
HIGH PRECIPTABLE WATER VALUES AROUND THE STATE...THESE TRAINING
STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS WITH RAIN RATES TOPPING OUT AT
1.5 INCHES PER HOUR.
ON TOP OF EVERYTHING...A BREEZY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH
SUSTAINED SE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE.
DID GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS A POSSIBILITY TODAY AS WELL. MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT FANTASTIC...HOWEVER CAPE VALUES WILL BE IN EXCESS OF
1000 J PER KG. WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SE AT THE SURFACE...HELICITY
VALUES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW TORNADOES.
BUT BY FAR THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.
OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS...PORTIONS OF WESTERN ARKANSAS HAVE SEEN
BETWEEN 10 TO 14 INCHES OF RAIN...WHICH IS ROUGHLY 4 TO 6 TIMES
NORMAL. COMBINE THIS WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BETWEEN 1.5 TO OVER 2 INCHES...WHICH IS 1 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...AND HEAVY RAIN AND LIFE THREATENING FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY.
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE TWO ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN...WITH THE FIRST
ROUND SUNDAY WITH TWO TO FOUR INCHES POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN
ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS. DO EXPECT THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE
PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY BEFORE THE SECOND ROUND OF
HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID DAY TUESDAY. MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A PERIOD OF VERY HEAVY RAIN MONDAY
NIGHT. AGAIN...DO EXPECT THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT DID GO AND ISSUE AND
EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO THE ENTIRE AREA AND GO THROUGH 18Z
TUESDAY.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
MODELS INDC A WEAK UPR RDG WL SET UP ALONG THE MS RVR VALLEY LATE IN
THE WEEK. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE RMNG IN PLACE ACRS THE MID
SOUTH...SCTD MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY. A
STRONGER UPR LVL STORM SYS IS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE LATE IN THE PD.
KEPT POPS IN CHC CAT THIS FAR IN ADVANCE AS CHGS IN TIMING/STRENGTH
ARE LIKELY WITH THIS SYS WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-
CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-
HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-
POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN
BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-
CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-
GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-
JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-
OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-
SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EUREKA CA
537 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL TODAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE COAST. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO TRINITY COUNTY ON
MONDAY. COASTAL AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MOSTLY CLOUDS WITH
PARTIAL AFTERNOON CLEARING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED LOW CLOUDS
COVERING THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS NORTH OF THE CAPE. LOW
CLOUDS HAVE ALSO BEEN REFORMING ALONG THE MENDOCINO COAST ZONE
WITH CLOUDS STARTING TO EXPAND OFFSHORE. THE LOW CLOUD LAYER HAS
BEEN COMPRESSING THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH HIGHER ELEVATION RAWS
SHOWING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES OF WARMING. WITH MODERATE WARMING
ALOFT TODAY MOST INTERIOR SITES SHOULD SEE HIGHER TEMPERATURES
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE FLOW REMAINS STRONGLY ONSHORE SO COASTAL
VALLEYS EXPOSED TO THE MARINE AIR WILL NOT SEE VERY MUCH...IF
ANY...WARMING TODAY. THE MARINE INVERSION WILL BE STRONGER TODAY.
WITH STRATUS STARTING TO EXPAND OFFSHORE...COASTAL CLOUDS WILL
PROBABLY STICK AROUND LONGER AT THE COAST TODAY. CLEARING IS NOT
LOOKING VERY PROMISING TODAY.
NAM12 CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAK AND SHALLOW INSTABILITY OVER THE
INTERIOR OF TRINITY COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MODEL EVEN
GENERATES SOME LIGHT PRECIP WHICH IS PROBABLY OVERDONE. THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE MUCH DRIER. BASED ON THE NAM12 SOUNDINGS...CONVECTION
IS LOOKING DECENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LIFTED INDICES
NEAR -2C AND SBCAPE NEAR 1000J/KG. A STRONG CAPPING LAYER AND CIN
WILL SUPPRESS STORM DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TWO OVER THE TRINITY MOUNTAINS AND YOLLA BOLLYS IS NOT COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE QUESTION. EVEN THE HRRR MODEL INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A FINE DAY WITH
PLEASANT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR TODAY.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW ON MONDAY WITH
THE TRAILING EDGE CLIPPING FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ALL THE
MODELS...GFS...ECMWF AND NAM12 INDICATE PRECIP DEVELOPING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING OVER TRINITY COUNTY. PROFILES LOOK BETTER FOR
STORMS WITH MUCH LESS CAPPING AND HIGHER CAPE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF TRINITY COUNTY. MOISTURE IS NOT VERY DEEP SO THERE MAY
NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER INITIALLY. PWATS APPROACH 1
INCH BUT NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CARRY THE STORMS QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST. ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
RIDGING OVER THE AREA ON WED AND THU SHOULD BRING DRYING...WARMING
AND INCREASING STABILITY IN THE INTERIOR. BASED ON THE SURFACE
PRESSURE PATTERN AND THE DGEX BOUNDARY LAYER HUMIDITY...COASTAL
AREAS WILL MOST LIKELY SEE LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME FOG EACH
DAY AND NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING FAIRLY
DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AROUND MID WEEK. THE GFS DOES SHOW
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ON FRI AND SAT AS A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA AND INTO THE RIDGE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
AT THIS POINT TO ADD STORMS THAT FAR OUT...SO WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY WITH VERY MINIMAL SHOWER CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS BORDERING SISKIYOU COUNTY.
&&
.AVIATION...OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING CIGS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING
BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR WHILE VSBYS HAVE REMAINED ABOVE 3SM. THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE LIFTING BY LATE
MORNING. EXPECT SOME BETTER CLEARING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON BUT AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE LAST WEEK CLOUDS WILL
FILL IN AGAIN BY EARLY EVENING. INTERIOR AREAS SHOULD SEE VFR
CONDITIONS AGAIN TODAY HOWEVER AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE
BRIEFLY REDUCING TERMINAL CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...PRESSURE GRADIENT DRIVEN NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONTRIBUTING TO LOCALLY GENERATED
SHORT PERIOD WAVES GENERALLY 8 TO 10 FT. THE NORTHERLY WINDS AND
STEEP SEAS WILL PERSIST AT LEAST ANOTHER 24-36 HOURS DUE TO AN
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO
CHANGE TOWARD WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
OVER THE REGION...DIMINISHING THE GRADIENT AND RESULTING WINDS.
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ470-475.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ455.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
632 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
RAIN HAS OVERSPREAD THE CWA FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE
LINE OF SHOWERS MATCHES WELL TO THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTOR.
BELIEVE THAT WESTERN ZONES WILL SEE THE MOST RAIN THIS MORNING.
THE RAIN BAND WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST.M HRRR MODEL RUNS
SUGGESTS THAT THIS AREA OF PRECIP WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY
UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...HAVE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES AND
TRIED TO BETTER TIME THE MOVEMENT OF THE RAIN THROUGH THE CWA AND
TAF SITES.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
EARLY THIS MORNING...A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WITH SIGNIFICANT FLASH
FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER IS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. A WIDE OPEN GULF AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WAS LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THAT AREA. CLOSER TO HOME...RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STORMS TO OUR SOUTH IS FINALLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO OUR
AREA. THIS RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE RAIN AND IMPACTS
ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA.
OVERALL...THE GULF IS OPEN AND H5 FLOW IS PERFECT FOR ADVECTING
LARGE AMOUNTS OF PW INTO THE AREA. GEFS M-CLIMATE DATA SUGGESTS
THAT PROGGED PWATS WILL BE IN THE 99 PERCENTILE. THERE WILL BE NO
LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS
TIMING AND DETERMINING THE AREAS THAT HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
POSSIBLE FLOODING.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WE WILL HAVE RAIN THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. HIRES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WE HAVE SOME DOWN
TIME THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE A WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND LEADS
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS FAVOR AREAS TO OUR WEST THROUGH LATE
MORNING. THE VECTORS THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST AND PAINT OUR WESTERN
ZONES FOR SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THROUGH THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM. THESE VECTORS SLOWLY TRANSLATE THE BULLS THROUGH OUR
CWA.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN OVERALL FLASH FLOODING COVERAGE. WITH PW
VALUES AT THE TOP OF THE SPECTRUM...ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THAT
FORM WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT PUMPING OUT HEAVY RAIN. AREAS TO
OUR SOUTH IN THE STRATIFORM SHIELD ARE SEEING OVER AN INCH OF RAIN
FROM THOSE SHIELDS. WHAT MAKES THIS A TRICKY FORECAST IS THE
OVERALL LACK OF INSTABILITY. WITHOUT INSTABILITY OVERALL RAINFALL
RATES SHOULD STAY LOW ENOUGH THAT RUNOFF DOES NOT BECOME A
CONCERN. I CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER COMPLETELY...THIS MEANS THAT
ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT CAN FORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO LEAD TO
HEAVY RAINFALL AND RAIN RATES THAT COULD LEAD TO FLOODING. IF
MODELS ARE UNDER FORECASTING THE INSTABILITY...OUR THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING WILL GO UP. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS DO NOT LEND
THEMSEMLVES WELL TO FLASH FLOODING AS WELL. OVERALL THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL BE LOW...SO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL NOT BE ISSUED
ON THIS SHIFT.
THIS FORECAST IS FLUID...ANY CHANGES IN HOURLY TRENDS COULD LEAD
TO A DIFFERENT OUTCOME. TODAY IS A DAY TO NOT IGNORE THE WEATHER
AS ANY CHANGES COULD LEAD TO AN INCREASED OR DECREASED THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
CONTINUED ACTIVE/UNSETTLED WITH PERIODIC BOUTS OF PCPN AND TEMPS
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
MEMORIAL DAY AND MONDAY NIGHT... PCPN CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN THE MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. FOR MEMORIAL DAY
AFTERNOON MODELS SHOW HEIGHTS ALOFT INCREASING AND THIS COMBINED
WITH DRY ADVECTION ON VEERED SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SOME SUGGESTION
OF A BIT OF AN ELEVATED EML PER NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOULD
MEAN A GENERALLY DRY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD BE RATHER GUSTY FROM
SOUTHWEST AT 15-30+ MPH DUE TO SOME TIGHTENING OF PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND MIX DOWN OF DRYING COLUMN. WITH THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND AT
LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE EXPECT HIGHS WIDESPREAD AROUND 80 OR IN THE
LOWER 80S... WITH POTENTIAL FOR FEW MID 80S SOUTHWEST CWA IF MORE
SOLAR INSOLATION. MONDAY NIGHT... PCPN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING
AHEAD OF WEAK COOL FRONT AND PLAINS SHORTWAVE. BULK SHEAR 0-6 KM OF
30-35 KTS WITH 0-4 KM MUCAPE 1500-2000+ J/KG PARAMETERS SUPPORTIVE
OF AT LEAST ISOLD SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. THE CHALLENGE IS WHETHER
CONVECTION CAN GROW UPSCALE IN MCS AS SOME MODELS DEPICT SEVERAL MCS
PARAMETERS/INGREDIENTS TO AT LEAST ENTERTAIN POSSIBILITY OF
UPSCALE GROWTH FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL IA WHICH IF OCCURS WOULD
PROPAGATE EASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF CWA LATE MONDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN AS LAYER PWATS SURGE TO OVER 1.5
INCHES. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY ON THIS OCCURRING TO CAP POPS IN HIGH
CHANCE CATEGORY ATTIM FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON TUESDAY AS WET DAY
WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST IN
SOMEWHAT OF A NEGATIVE TILT FASHION. AT LEAST SOME ISOLD SEVERE
POTENTIAL POSSIBLE EASTERN CWA AHEAD OF WEAK FRONT WITH 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR 30-35 KTS. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN PRESENCE OF LIKELY
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THIS PERIOD IS TRENDING DRIER WITH
WEAK COOL FRONT SETTLING SOUTH OF CWA AND WEAK SURFACE RIDGING
BUILDING IN. HIGHS A BIT WARMER AND MAINLY UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH
AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS SET TO RETURN
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS SOUTHEAST
ATLANTIC RIDGE STRENGTHENS WITH GULF MOISTURE INCREASING ON WESTERN
PERIPHERY AHEAD OF NEXT ROUND OF LEE SIDE TROUGHING AND SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTIES UNFORTUNATELY HAVE SEVERAL
PERIODS OF HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
OVERALL... WITH ACTIVE REGIME FEATURING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN DURING THE PERIOD WILL HAVE TO WATCH AREA RIVERS IN
THE COMING WEEK AHEAD. ALSO...WILL NEED TO KEEP EYE ON ANY HEAVY
RAINS INTO CENTRAL IA FOR POSSIBLY SOME RISES ON A FEW EASTERN IA
TRIBS DUE TO ROUTING OF SOME WATER. NCRFC ENSEMBLE QPF SCENARIOS
SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRIBUTARY LOCATIONS NEARING FLOOD STAGE
TOWARD LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND...MAINLY THE WAPSIPINICON
AT DEWITT...IOWA RIVER AT MARENGO...SKUNK AT SIGOURNEY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
MESSY DAY ON THE AVIATION DESK TODAY. IN THE NEXT SIX HOURS MOST
OF THE SITES WILL SEE RAIN AND THEN IT START TO TAPER OFF. AT THAT
TIME SOME BR COULD DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES. SOME SITES TO THE
WEST ARE ALREADY SHOWING IFR CEILINGS THIS AM. WILL TEMPO IF IFR
SHOWS UP AT CID AS I THINK IT WILL BE TEMPORARY. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS COULD RETURN WITH THE RAIN. WESTERN TAF
SITES ARE FORECAST TO HAVE CIGS CRASH TO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR.
RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...GIBBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
949 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
.UPDATE...
NOCTURNAL MCS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BEGINNING TO SLOW UP AND
THIS IS RAISING CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS REALLY GOOD SURFACE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
COAST TO HELP FEED AND FOCUS CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENT OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS RICH WITH MOISTURE WITH PROJECTED PRECIPITABLE
WATER NEAR 2 INCHES AND MEAN RH OVER 90 PERCENT. THEREFORE...THESE
STORMS SHOULD BE EFFICIENT PRECIP PRODUCERS WITH RAINFALL RATES
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER HOUR. TIDE LEVELS NEAR THE COAST ARE
ALSO RUNNING BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS WHICH
WILL HELP KEEP THE BAYOUS AND CREEKS FROM PROPERLY DRAINING. WILL
BE MONITORING THAT AREA CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE URBAN FLOOD
ADVISORIES OR FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BEFORE THE MORNING IS UP.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD WITH HRRR SHOWING THIS
BAND REACHING SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AROUND 18Z. ALTHOUGH DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO HELP DEVELOP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE MAIN BAND. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
DURING THE FIRST PERIOD TO KEEP UP WITH RADAR AND SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE TRENDS.
RUA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 709 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...
PRIMARY AVIATION ISSUE THIS MORNING IS TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MCV CROSSING METRO
HOUSTON ATTM. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO GET INTO KBPT TOWARD 15Z AND
KLCH 17Z. HRRR SHOWS THIS LINE BREAKING UP AFTER IT PASSES KLCH SO
HAVE ELECTED FOR NOW TO NOT CARRY PREVAILING PRECIP FOR REMAINING
SITES. OTHERWISE PRIMARY ISSUE REMAINS STRONG SRLY WINDS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS A TIGHT GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE THANKS TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE
REGION...AS WELL AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN.
25
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
.FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...
DISCUSSION...THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN FOR OUR AREA IS
APPROACHING. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE LARGER WEST U.S. TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING. CURRENTLY OVER TX STORMS ARE STRETCHED FROM BROWNSVILLE
TO DFW. THE PORTION OF WX THAT CONCERNS SE TX AND LA IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TX COAST AND WILL ARRIVE ROUGHLY AT 9 AM TO
JEFFERSON, HARDIN, AND TYLER COUNTIES. ALREADY SATURATED GROUND,
HIGH RAINFALL RATES, AND POTENTIALLY MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN
PROMPTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SE TX, SW AND CENTRAL LA
FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, HOWEVER RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY STRETCH IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR MASS AND HIGHER AMOUNT OF FORECASTED
QPF REMAINING JUST WEST OF LOWER ACADIANA THE WATCH WAS NOT EXPANDED
TO THAT AREA, HOWEVER ANY TRAINING STORM, IF IT DOES OCCUR, WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLOODING.
BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER TX ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTH CA IS ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE
RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN HIGH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DURING
TUESDAY THE MAIN TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING AS THIS OCCURS. A
SLIGHT DRYING OF THE AIR MASS WILL OCCUR ALOFT AS THE MAIN TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST.
ALSO DURING THE PERIOD OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... WHILE FLOODING
WILL REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT OF THIS EVENT, THERE IS A MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN LIMITED,
HOWEVER STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE LINES OF STORMS
MOVE THROUGH.
MAINLY SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WED AND THU
EVEN AS MODEST RIDGING OCCURS. THE MODEST RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BREAK DOWN AGAIN BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER, YET
WEAKER, UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE WESTERN STATES INTO THE
PLAINS.
MARINE...A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH NEAR SCA CRITERIA WINDS OCCURRING. THE
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
PLAINS LIFTS NE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS, CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF THE LATEST WEATHER AND
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER IF A STRONG STORM APPROACHES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 70 82 70 83 / 80 70 70 70
LCH 73 84 73 85 / 80 60 70 70
LFT 73 84 73 85 / 80 70 60 70
BPT 74 83 74 85 / 80 70 70 60
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-
073-074.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
259>262.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR GMZ450-
452-455-470-472-475.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
709 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
PRIMARY AVIATION ISSUE THIS MORNING IS TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MCV CROSSING METRO
HOUSTON ATTM. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO GET INTO KBPT TOWARD 15Z AND
KLCH 17Z. HRRR SHOWS THIS LINE BREAKING UP AFTER IT PASSES KLCH SO
HAVE ELECTED FOR NOW TO NOT CARRY PREVAILING PRECIP FOR REMAINING
SITES. OTHERWISE PRIMARY ISSUE REMAINS STRONG SRLY WINDS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS A TIGHT GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE THANKS TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE
REGION...AS WELL AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN.
25
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
..FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...
DISCUSSION...THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN FOR OUR AREA IS
APPROACHING. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE LARGER WEST U.S. TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING. CURRENTLY OVER TX STORMS ARE STRETCHED FROM BROWNSVILLE
TO DFW. THE PORTION OF WX THAT CONCERNS SE TX AND LA IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TX COAST AND WILL ARRIVE ROUGHLY AT 9 AM TO
JEFFERSON, HARDIN, AND TYLER COUNTIES. ALREADY SATURATED GROUND,
HIGH RAINFALL RATES, AND POTENTIALLY MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN
PROMPTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SE TX, SW AND CENTRAL LA
FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, HOWEVER RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY STRETCH IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR MASS AND HIGHER AMOUNT OF FORECASTED
QPF REMAINING JUST WEST OF LOWER ACADIANA THE WATCH WAS NOT EXPANDED
TO THAT AREA, HOWEVER ANY TRAINING STORM, IF IT DOES OCCUR, WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLOODING.
BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER TX ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTH CA IS ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE
RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN HIGH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DURING
TUESDAY THE MAIN TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING AS THIS OCCURS. A
SLIGHT DRYING OF THE AIR MASS WILL OCCUR ALOFT AS THE MAIN TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST.
ALSO DURING THE PERIOD OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... WHILE FLOODING
WILL REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT OF THIS EVENT, THERE IS A MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN LIMITED,
HOWEVER STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE LINES OF STORMS
MOVE THROUGH.
MAINLY SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WED AND THU
EVEN AS MODEST RIDGING OCCURS. THE MODEST RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BREAK DOWN AGAIN BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER, YET
WEAKER, UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE WESTERN STATES INTO THE
PLAINS.
MARINE...A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH NEAR SCA CRITERIA WINDS OCCURRING. THE
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
PLAINS LIFTS NE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS, CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF THE LATEST WEATHER AND
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER IF A STRONG STORM APPROACHES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 84 70 82 70 / 80 80 70 70
LCH 83 73 84 73 / 80 80 60 70
LFT 85 73 84 73 / 60 80 70 60
BPT 80 74 83 74 / 80 80 70 70
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-
073-074.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
259>262.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR GMZ450-
452-455-470-472-475.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
1245 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
.AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS BROUGHT MOISTURE BACK TO ARKANSAS. ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
AND GUST TO 25 KTS OR MORE. EXPECT WIND SHEAR AT LIT. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AND END TOWARD DAYBREAK. VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
AVIATION...24/12Z TAF CYCLE
SCTD SHRA/TSRA WL BE NOTED ACRS THE AREA THIS MRNG...ALONG WITH
OCNL STRATUS. THIS WL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDS. CONVECTION
WL BCM MORE WIDESPREAD ACRS AR THIS AFTN AND TNGT...WITH CONDS
DETERIORATING. PRIMARILY EXPECT MVFR CONDS BY THAT TIME...WITH IFR
CIGS/VSBYS WHERE STRONGER STORMS OCCUR. BREEZY S/SELY SFC WINDS WL
ALSO BE COMMON THRU MUCH OF THE PD. /44/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD
RAIN...FLOODING...AND A FEW TORNADOES LAST NIGHT TO OKLAHOMA HAS
CONTINUED ITS SLOW MARCH EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE
BEGUN TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
THIRD OF THE STATE. WRF AND HRRR DISAGREE WITH HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL
EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT EIGHT HOURS OR SO. THE WRF SHOWS THE LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEAKENING AROUND MID DAY...BEFORE
REDEVELOPING AFTER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AM LEANING TOWARDS THE
HRRR WHICH SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO FALL
THROUGH THE DAY...AS PRECIPITATION SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE EAST. WITH
HIGH PRECIPTABLE WATER VALUES AROUND THE STATE...THESE TRAINING
STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS WITH RAIN RATES TOPPING OUT AT
1.5 INCHES PER HOUR.
ON TOP OF EVERYTHING...A BREEZY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH
SUSTAINED SE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE.
DID GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS A POSSIBILITY TODAY AS WELL. MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT FANTASTIC...HOWEVER CAPE VALUES WILL BE IN EXCESS OF
1000 J PER KG. WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SE AT THE SURFACE...HELICITY
VALUES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW TORNADOES.
BUT BY FAR THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.
OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS...PORTIONS OF WESTERN ARKANSAS HAVE SEEN
BETWEEN 10 TO 14 INCHES OF RAIN...WHICH IS ROUGHLY 4 TO 6 TIMES
NORMAL. COMBINE THIS WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BETWEEN 1.5 TO OVER 2 INCHES...WHICH IS 1 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...AND HEAVY RAIN AND LIFE THREATENING FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY.
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE TWO ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN...WITH THE FIRST
ROUND SUNDAY WITH TWO TO FOUR INCHES POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN
ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS. DO EXPECT THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE
PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY BEFORE THE SECOND ROUND OF
HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID DAY TUESDAY. MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A PERIOD OF VERY HEAVY RAIN MONDAY
NIGHT. AGAIN...DO EXPECT THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT DID GO AND ISSUE AND
EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO THE ENTIRE AREA AND GO THROUGH 18Z
TUESDAY.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
MODELS INDC A WEAK UPR RDG WL SET UP ALONG THE MS RVR VALLEY LATE IN
THE WEEK. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE RMNG IN PLACE ACRS THE MID
SOUTH...SCTD MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY. A
STRONGER UPR LVL STORM SYS IS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE LATE IN THE PD.
KEPT POPS IN CHC CAT THIS FAR IN ADVANCE AS CHGS IN TIMING/STRENGTH
ARE LIKELY WITH THIS SYS WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 67 78 65 79 / 80 50 80 60
CAMDEN AR 68 82 69 84 / 80 90 90 60
HARRISON AR 65 79 62 79 / 80 40 80 60
HOT SPRINGS AR 67 81 68 82 / 80 80 90 60
LITTLE ROCK AR 68 82 67 82 / 80 60 90 60
MONTICELLO AR 70 83 69 82 / 80 90 90 80
MOUNT IDA AR 68 78 67 79 / 80 80 80 60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 65 80 64 79 / 80 30 80 60
NEWPORT AR 69 80 67 80 / 80 60 80 70
PINE BLUFF AR 68 81 69 81 / 80 80 90 70
RUSSELLVILLE AR 65 82 66 80 / 80 60 80 60
SEARCY AR 66 80 68 78 / 80 50 80 70
STUTTGART AR 69 82 69 81 / 80 60 80 70
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
YELL.
&&
$$
AVIATION...51
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
230 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSOURI IN CONJUNCTION WITH A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTEX (MCV) GENERATED BY AN UPSTREAM STORM COMPLEX LAST NIGHT.
THESE CELLS ARE LIFTING MAINLY NORTHWARD AND WILL STAY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. FURTHER
EAST...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE KILX CWA...HOWEVER WEAK WIND SHEAR AND AN
OVERALL LACK OF FORCING WILL KEEP AREAL COVERAGE TO A MINIMUM INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. STRONGER FORCING WILL GRADUALLY ARRIVE AS A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON 19Z/2PM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS
TEXAS LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING. HIGH-RES
MODELS CONTINUE TO DELAY THE ONSET OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...WITH
THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTING THAT E/NE PARTS OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE TAILORED RAIN CHANCES
ACCORDINGLY...WITH LIKELY POPS GRADUALLY OVERSPREADING ALL LOCATIONS
SOUTHWEST OF A BLOOMINGTON TO PARIS LINE DURING THE EVENING...THEN
FURTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
DESPITE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH TEXAS
WAVE...WANING INSTABILITY AFTER SUNSET WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER FROM MATERIALIZING...ALTHOUGH A FEW CELLS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI TO SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS BY 12Z MON...THEN WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY MIDDAY. ONCE FEATURE PASSES...SHORT-WAVE RIDGING
IN ITS WAKE WILL CREATE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY AFTERNOON.
WILL STILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES FROM
THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...AS THESE COULD POSSIBLY TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL STORMS LATER IN THE DAY AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES
MODERATELY UNSTABLE. AT THIS TIME...THINK SUBSIDENCE AND
MID-LEVEL DRYING BEHIND THE WAVE WILL PREVENT CONVECTION...SO
WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST IN THE AFTERNOON. MAIN STORY ON
MONDAY WILL BE THE WINDY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS. MODELS ARE
SHOWING A 50-55KT 925MB JET DEVELOPING FROM THE OZARKS TO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT. AS MIXING BEGINS TO TAKE
PLACE MONDAY MORNING...SOME OF THIS HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR WILL BE
TRANSFERRED TO THE SURFACE RESULTING IN GUSTS OF 30-35MPH.
THANKS TO THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND CLEARING
SKIES...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR WELL INTO THE 80S.
THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT-WAVE CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA WILL ROUND THE
BASE OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH AND LIFT INTO ILLINOIS ON TUESDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING
OF THIS FEATURE. WILL BRING POPS BACK INTO THE PICTURE AFTER
MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL GO LIKELY ACROSS THE BOARD ON
TUESDAY. LATEST DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC FEATURES A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70 ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IN THE MORNING WILL LIKELY LIMIT INSTABILITY FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. LATEST NAM SHOWS SBCAPES INCREASING TO 1500J/KG ACROSS THE
SE CWA LATE IN THE DAY...WHILE 0-6KM SHEAR REMAINS QUITE WEAK AT
AROUND 25KT. WHILE ISOLATED STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS UNLIKELY IN THE OUTLOOK AREA.
ONCE THIS WAVE EXITS THE REGION...FORCING ONCE AGAIN BECOMES MEAGER
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A SUBTLE WAVE MAY PASS THROUGH
ILLINOIS ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS AT THAT
TIME. THURSDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE THE OVERALL DRIEST DAY OF THE
WEEK...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE
80S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...A MORE SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN-STREAM
WAVE WILL BEGIN PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARD ILLINOIS. STILL SOME
MODEL DISCREPANCY WITH THE TIMING OF THAT PROCESS...BUT TRENDS ARE
SUGGESTING ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
SHOWERS HAVE REMAINED SCATTERED THUS FAR...AND HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS
THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE A GOOD PART OF THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
INCREASE BY 21Z OR SO IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. HAVE GONE WITH
VCTS FOR NOW UNTIL THEY START TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED. THERE
SHOULD BE A PERIOD EARLY EVENING THAT REMAINS DRY...BEFORE THE
MAIN ARE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVES AFTER ABOUT 03-04Z AND WORKS
ITS WAY NORTHEAST. OVERALL DIMINISHMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MID-LATE MONDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY MUCH OF THE TIME...GUSTING OVER
20 KNOTS...BUT WILL TREND TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM SOUTHEAST IOWA INTO WISCONSIN.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...BARNES
AVIATION...GEELHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1238 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS HAD A DECENT AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE THIS MORNING...AND THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
ALREADY RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. THIS AREA IS
IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT...WHICH WAS ROUGHLY ALONG
A MACOMB TO WATSEKA LINE AT 10 AM. CLOUDINESS SHOULD START TO
OVERTAKE THE SOUTHEAST CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS SHOWING THAT MOST OF THE RAIN HAS BEEN
BYPASSING US THUS FAR EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS HERE AND
THERE...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER. THE LARGER RAIN
SHIELD WAS NORTH OF THE FRONT...TIED IN WITH A MESOSCALE VORTEX
OVER WESTERN IOWA...WHILE A SECOND MCV WAS TRACKING NORTHWARD
THROUGH SOUTHEAST KANSAS. SHOWERS OVER EASTERN MISSOURI WERE
INCREASING AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY AS THEY
SPREAD INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE PRECIPITATION TIMING THROUGH TONIGHT...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR BELOW 800 MB THAT WILL NEED TO BE
OVERCOME. THIS MAY TAKE UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA. IN THE WEST...LIKELY POP`S ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WEST OF I-55...WITH THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
BETWEEN I-55 AND I-57 LATER THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING BUT WILL NOT LAST LONG AS IT IS MOVING
NORTH AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CWA LATER THIS MORNING. REMAINDER OF
THE PCPN SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA BUT SLOWLY MOVE EAST THIS
MORNING. SO CHANCE POPS THIS MORNING IN THE WEST WILL BECOME LIKELY
LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT LIKELY POPS
WILL REMAIN WEST OF I-55 TODAY. WILL GO WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BELIEVE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY...WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 25MPH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BEING AN INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL. DAYTIME
HIGHS COULD BE TEMPERED SOME THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THICKER CLOUDS AND
PCPN EXIST...SO WARMER TEMPS WILL BE IN THE EAST WHERE RAIN WILL
HOLD OFF THE LONGEST AND CLOUDS SHOULD BE LITTLE THINNER.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
FORECAST WARM AND MUGGY WITH A LOT OF CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT. REGION DOMINATED BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE UPPER TROF IN THE SW. A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE PATTERN MID WEEK IS ONLY TEMPORARY AS TEMPS
REMAIN WARM WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE ONLY REINFORCED BY PERIODIC
SHOWERS ENHANCING THE BOUNDARY LAYER RH.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LOW
OFF TO THE WEST MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDWEST. RICH MOISTURE AND
WARM TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF WARM AND MUGGY
WEATHER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND AT LEAST INTO THE FIRST PART OF
MEMORIAL DAY. MODELS STILL SHIFTING THE CONVECTION TO THE EAST FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS ARE MOVING THE
PRECIP THROUGH, THE ATMOSPHERE MAINTAINS A BIT OF INSTABILITY IN THE
AFTERNOON. CONCERNED THAT THE MODELS ARE A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE CLEARING. HOWEVER, THE LACK OF FOCUS/CONVERGENCE IN THE
WAKE OF EXITING STORMS, KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY IN AT LEAST THE
EARLY EVENING. THIS STORY MAY CHANGE QUICKLY WITH ANY MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES LEFT BEHIND FROM TONIGHT AND TOMORROW EARLY. WITH OR
WITHOUT AFTERNOON STORMS, MONDAY GOING TO BE BREEZY. MOMENTUM
TRANSFER EITHER FROM THE SHOWERS, OR JUST WITH DIURNAL MIXING WILL
RESULT IN GUSTS IN THE 25-30KT RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW FINALLY LIFTING INTO THE MIDWEST MOVING ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON TUESDAY. MORE SHOWERS ANTICIPATED
FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE MUGGY AIRMASS. FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WEAK AT BEST AND WILL ONLY SEE A BRIEF SFC WIND
SHIFT TO MORE WESTERLY FROM SOUTHERLY FOR WED AND WED NIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF PATTERN SHIFT ALOFT. CHANGE IS ONLY
TEMPORARY AS SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS REESTABLISH BY THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP FOR YET ANOTHER ROUND OF
ACTIVE WEATHER FOR A WET WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
SHOWERS HAVE REMAINED SCATTERED THUS FAR...AND HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS
THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE A GOOD PART OF THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
INCREASE BY 21Z OR SO IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. HAVE GONE WITH
VCTS FOR NOW UNTIL THEY START TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED. THERE
SHOULD BE A PERIOD EARLY EVENING THAT REMAINS DRY...BEFORE THE
MAIN ARE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVES AFTER ABOUT 03-04Z AND WORKS
ITS WAY NORTHEAST. OVERALL DIMINISHMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MID-LATE MONDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY MUCH OF THE TIME...GUSTING OVER
20 KNOTS...BUT WILL TREND TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM SOUTHEAST IOWA INTO WISCONSIN.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEELHART
SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...GEELHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
129 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
RAIN HAS OVERSPREAD THE CWA FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE
LINE OF SHOWERS MATCHES WELL TO THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTOR.
BELIEVE THAT WESTERN ZONES WILL SEE THE MOST RAIN THIS MORNING.
THE RAIN BAND WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST.M HRRR MODEL RUNS
SUGGESTS THAT THIS AREA OF PRECIP WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY
UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...HAVE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES AND
TRIED TO BETTER TIME THE MOVEMENT OF THE RAIN THROUGH THE CWA AND
TAF SITES.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
EARLY THIS MORNING...A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WITH SIGNIFICANT FLASH
FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER IS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. A WIDE OPEN GULF AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WAS LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THAT AREA. CLOSER TO HOME...RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STORMS TO OUR SOUTH IS FINALLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO OUR
AREA. THIS RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE RAIN AND IMPACTS
ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA.
OVERALL...THE GULF IS OPEN AND H5 FLOW IS PERFECT FOR ADVECTING
LARGE AMOUNTS OF PW INTO THE AREA. GEFS M-CLIMATE DATA SUGGESTS
THAT PROGGED PWATS WILL BE IN THE 99 PERCENTILE. THERE WILL BE NO
LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS
TIMING AND DETERMINING THE AREAS THAT HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
POSSIBLE FLOODING.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WE WILL HAVE RAIN THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. HIRES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WE HAVE SOME DOWN
TIME THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE A WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND LEADS
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS FAVOR AREAS TO OUR WEST THROUGH LATE
MORNING. THE VECTORS THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST AND PAINT OUR WESTERN
ZONES FOR SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THROUGH THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM. THESE VECTORS SLOWLY TRANSLATE THE BULLS THROUGH OUR
CWA.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN OVERALL FLASH FLOODING COVERAGE. WITH PW
VALUES AT THE TOP OF THE SPECTRUM...ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THAT
FORM WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT PUMPING OUT HEAVY RAIN. AREAS TO
OUR SOUTH IN THE STRATIFORM SHIELD ARE SEEING OVER AN INCH OF RAIN
FROM THOSE SHIELDS. WHAT MAKES THIS A TRICKY FORECAST IS THE
OVERALL LACK OF INSTABILITY. WITHOUT INSTABILITY OVERALL RAINFALL
RATES SHOULD STAY LOW ENOUGH THAT RUNOFF DOES NOT BECOME A
CONCERN. I CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER COMPLETELY...THIS MEANS THAT
ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT CAN FORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO LEAD TO
HEAVY RAINFALL AND RAIN RATES THAT COULD LEAD TO FLOODING. IF
MODELS ARE UNDER FORECASTING THE INSTABILITY...OUR THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING WILL GO UP. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS DO NOT LEND
THEMSELVES WELL TO FLASH FLOODING AS WELL. OVERALL THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL BE LOW...SO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL NOT BE ISSUED
ON THIS SHIFT.
THIS FORECAST IS FLUID...ANY CHANGES IN HOURLY TRENDS COULD LEAD
TO A DIFFERENT OUTCOME. TODAY IS A DAY TO NOT IGNORE THE WEATHER
AS ANY CHANGES COULD LEAD TO AN INCREASED OR DECREASED THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
CONTINUED ACTIVE/UNSETTLED WITH PERIODIC BOUTS OF PCPN AND TEMPS
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
MEMORIAL DAY AND MONDAY NIGHT... PCPN CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN THE MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. FOR MEMORIAL DAY
AFTERNOON MODELS SHOW HEIGHTS ALOFT INCREASING AND THIS COMBINED
WITH DRY ADVECTION ON VEERED SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SOME SUGGESTION
OF A BIT OF AN ELEVATED EML PER NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOULD
MEAN A GENERALLY DRY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD BE RATHER GUSTY FROM
SOUTHWEST AT 15-30+ MPH DUE TO SOME TIGHTENING OF PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND MIX DOWN OF DRYING COLUMN. WITH THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND AT
LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE EXPECT HIGHS WIDESPREAD AROUND 80 OR IN THE
LOWER 80S... WITH POTENTIAL FOR FEW MID 80S SOUTHWEST CWA IF MORE
SOLAR INSOLATION. MONDAY NIGHT... PCPN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING
AHEAD OF WEAK COOL FRONT AND PLAINS SHORTWAVE. BULK SHEAR 0-6 KM OF
30-35 KTS WITH 0-4 KM MUCAPE 1500-2000+ J/KG PARAMETERS SUPPORTIVE
OF AT LEAST ISOLD SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. THE CHALLENGE IS WHETHER
CONVECTION CAN GROW UPSCALE IN MCS AS SOME MODELS DEPICT SEVERAL MCS
PARAMETERS/INGREDIENTS TO AT LEAST ENTERTAIN POSSIBILITY OF
UPSCALE GROWTH FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL IA WHICH IF OCCURS WOULD
PROPAGATE EASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF CWA LATE MONDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN AS LAYER PWATS SURGE TO OVER 1.5
INCHES. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY ON THIS OCCURRING TO CAP POPS IN HIGH
CHANCE CATEGORY ATTIM FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON TUESDAY AS WET DAY
WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST IN
SOMEWHAT OF A NEGATIVE TILT FASHION. AT LEAST SOME ISOLD SEVERE
POTENTIAL POSSIBLE EASTERN CWA AHEAD OF WEAK FRONT WITH 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR 30-35 KTS. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN PRESENCE OF LIKELY
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THIS PERIOD IS TRENDING DRIER WITH
WEAK COOL FRONT SETTLING SOUTH OF CWA AND WEAK SURFACE RIDGING
BUILDING IN. HIGHS A BIT WARMER AND MAINLY UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH
AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS SET TO RETURN
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS SOUTHEAST
ATLANTIC RIDGE STRENGTHENS WITH GULF MOISTURE INCREASING ON WESTERN
PERIPHERY AHEAD OF NEXT ROUND OF LEE SIDE TROUGHING AND SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTIES UNFORTUNATELY HAVE SEVERAL
PERIODS OF HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
OVERALL... WITH ACTIVE REGIME FEATURING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN DURING THE PERIOD WILL HAVE TO WATCH AREA RIVERS IN
THE COMING WEEK AHEAD. ALSO...WILL NEED TO KEEP EYE ON ANY HEAVY
RAINS INTO CENTRAL IA FOR POSSIBLY SOME RISES ON A FEW EASTERN IA
TRIBS DUE TO ROUTING OF SOME WATER. NCRFC ENSEMBLE QPF SCENARIOS
SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRIBUTARY LOCATIONS NEARING FLOOD STAGE
TOWARD LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND...MAINLY THE WAPSIPINICON
AT DEWITT...IOWA RIVER AT MARENGO...SKUNK AT SIGOURNEY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO THE LATE AFTN WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR UNDER SHORT-LIVED CONVECTIVE RAIN
SHOWERS.
LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVENING INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY AND SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. INCLUDED
THUNDER AT KMLI AND KBRL WHERE CONFIDENCE IS MUCH HIGHER THAN AT
KCID AND KDBQ. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER TO AROUND 1 KFT AGL AND VSBYS TO
2 MILES OR LOWER AT TIMES.
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF CONDITIONS AT THE
MVFR/IFR THRESHOLD BETWEEN 05Z-13Z/MONDAY. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE
AFTER 12Z/MONDAY AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID
MORNING.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...UTTECH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
321 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
The forecast issue tonight is how much rain will fall on the
flooded areas in the southeast part of the forecast area. At 19
UTC, a large-scale upper trough was moving northeast out of the
southern plains. The 12 UTC short-range models were in decent
agreement with the progression of the precipitation this evening.
Heaviest rainfalls should fall across Missouri sparing eastern
Kansas of heavy rainfall. However, it appears likely that a band
of showers and isolated thunderstorms should move through this
evening. The latest HRRR is consistent with previous runs in this
scenario as are the rest of the convective resolving meso-scale
models. Although widespread heavy rainfall is not expected, it
would not take much rainfall to cause more flooding problems.
Therefore, we will keep the flash flood watch going and we can
cancel it early if necessary.
Additional thunderstorms are developing over southeast Colorado
which the hi-res NAM brings east into our west counties late
tonight. Keep a small POP going along with clouds late tonight and
Monday morning.
Both the 12 UTC NAM/GFS bring an EML into northeast KS in the wake
of the ejecting upper trough. Model soundings suggest a decent
cap over the area on Monday with more than modest surface based
CAPE by afternoon. On the synoptic scale, a shortwave should once
again be moving through the southern plains, but it should be too
far south to impact our weather. Meanwhile, the models develop
convection near the synoptic boundary over parts of central KS/NE.
Will keep pops going for late afternoon development over our
northwest counties. The GFS has a deeper 500 mb low over the
central plains by next Sunday while the ECMWF is not as deep and
more progressive.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
The weather pattern remains unsettled through the forecast period
and we will have thunderstorms chances almost every period. The
large upper trough over the desert southwest slowly moves into the
central plains during the period. The 12 UTC ECWMF/GFS agree
with the general progression, but there are significant differences
in the details. At the surface, there will be a boundary in the
vicinity which will be heavily influenced by mesoscale influences.
Meanwhile, the Gulf of Mexico will remain open for business with
moisture advection into the central Plains. Will keep
thunderstorms chances going with more humid and warm weather close
to seasonal normal`s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
Today and early evening, there are a couple mid-level shortwaves
that will impact the TAF sites. Much of this activity will be in
the late afternoon and early evening with the possibility of some
thunderstorm activity developing which could bring some periods of
low end MVFR CIGS/VIS to the terminals. Outside of this, there are
some spotty areas of light showers right now. Not completely
confident any of these will impact the terminals. Therefore, have
left only VCSH for both the afternoon and then again a chance in
the early morning. Lower confidence on the morning showers. But again,
generally expecting VFR outside of some brief periods with the thunderstorms.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ026-039-040-
054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Johnson
LONG TERM...Johnson
AVIATION...Drake
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1257 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1108 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
Cancelled the flash flood watch in locations which did not
receive the heavy rain in the past 24 hours. Area of showers
should move into east central Kansas by late morning with more
development this afternoon and evening. 12z model QPF from the NAM
and the most recent HRRR keep heavy QPF southeast of us, but there
is enough QPF on saturated ground and areas that are already in
flood to keep flash flood watch going.
&&
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 323 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
After a round of moderate rain over the area, several mainstream
rivers are rising and forecast to flood in the southeast portions of
the forecast area. Flooding also continues in those counties as
widespread rainfall of 2-4 inches fell across the area.
Precipitation chances in a lull in the early morning hours, before
the next wave in the flow begins to increase precipitation chances
from south to north late this morning into the afternoon hours.
Stronger wave over the Big Bend area of Texas lifts northeastward
and moves into the area for the evening hours, and current thinking
is heavier precipitation would fall late afternoon and into the
evening, and primarily across the eastern portions of the forecast
area. Another 1-2 inches of rain are forecast in heavier bands,
with locally higher amounts possible. Subsiding air behind the
departing stronger wave could bring rain to an end from south to
north across eastern Kansas by shortly after midnight, and have
tapered off rain chances as such. Kept high temperatures on the cool
side in the lower 70s and went slightly cooler on lows in the 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
By Monday morning the shortwave responsible for today`s rainfall
will be lifting into the upper Midwest leaving southwest flow aloft
in it`s wake. The next shortwave is forecast to eject over the
region late Monday, while another wave passes over the southern
plains. Lapse rates will steepen as en EML spreads eastward over the
area out ahead of the wave. A boundary will be present across
western and central KS possibly accompanied by a weak surface low
pressure. The morning should be relatively quiet with only slight
chances for light rain showers. During the afternoon and evening the
wave will lift over the boundary where isolated to scattered storms
will be possible. Cape should increase significantly during the day
especially if the clouds begin to scatter out. Deep layer shear
looks marginal at best with a weakness in the mid level winds. The
main uncertainty is will the forcing and convergence along the
boundary be enough to initiate storms. Models are also hinting at
deeper mixing in western KS, which could lead to possible dry
punches in central KS. These could also be locations for surface
convergence and storm development once the cap weakens. Either way
if storms do develop there is a chance they could be strong to
severe given the high instability, but will probably not be well
organized. As of now the better chances for precip appear to be
north central KS during the late afternoon and evening hours.
That shortwave will continue to lift northeastward Monday night and
into Tuesday morning. There are some timing issues among the models
therefore have kept some rain chances during the day Tuesday. The
forecast then becomes somewhat tricky to pin down precip timing as
the large scale flow weakens and small shortwaves traverse across
the center of the country. This west to southwest flow will persist
through late week. It is unlikely that we will be dealing with any
widespread heavy rain events similar to this weekend given this
expected pattern. A few more pronounced shortwaves lift out of
the Rockies late week, which could bring better chances for precip
next weekend. An actual front may come through as these waves
progress eastward to allow for a dry period early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
Today and early evening, there are a couple mid-level shortwaves
that will impact the TAF sites. Much of this activity will be in
the late afternoon and early evening with the possibility of some
thunderstorm activity developing which could bring some periods of
low end MVFR CIGS/VIS to the terminals. Outside of this, there are
some spotty areas of light showers right now. Not completely
confident any of these will impact the terminals. Therefore, have
left only VCSH for both the afternoon and then again a chance in
the early morning. Lower confidence on the morning showers. But again,
generally expecting VFR outside of some brief periods with the thunderstorms.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ026-039-040-
054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Johnson
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Drake
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1115 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1108 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
Cancelled the flash flood watch in locations which did not
receive the heavy rain in the past 24 hours. Area of showers
should move into east central Kansas by late morning with more
development this afternoon and evening. 12z model QPF from the NAM
and the most recent HRRR keep heavy QPF southeast of us, but there
is enough QPF on saturated ground and areas that are already in
flood to keep flash flood watch going.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 323 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
After a round of moderate rain over the area, several mainstream
rivers are rising and forecast to flood in the southeast portions of
the forecast area. Flooding also continues in those counties as
widespread rainfall of 2-4 inches fell across the area.
Precipitation chances in a lull in the early morning hours, before
the next wave in the flow begins to increase precipitation chances
from south to north late this morning into the afternoon hours.
Stronger wave over the Big Bend area of Texas lifts northeastward
and moves into the area for the evening hours, and current thinking
is heavier precipitation would fall late afternoon and into the
evening, and primarily across the eastern portions of the forecast
area. Another 1-2 inches of rain are forecast in heavier bands,
with locally higher amounts possible. Subsiding air behind the
departing stronger wave could bring rain to an end from south to
north across eastern Kansas by shortly after midnight, and have
tapered off rain chances as such. Kept high temperatures on the cool
side in the lower 70s and went slightly cooler on lows in the 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
By Monday morning the shortwave responsible for today`s rainfall
will be lifting into the upper Midwest leaving southwest flow aloft
in it`s wake. The next shortwave is forecast to eject over the
region late Monday, while another wave passes over the southern
plains. Lapse rates will steepen as en EML spreads eastward over the
area out ahead of the wave. A boundary will be present across
western and central KS possibly accompanied by a weak surface low
pressure. The morning should be relatively quiet with only slight
chances for light rain showers. During the afternoon and evening the
wave will lift over the boundary where isolated to scattered storms
will be possible. Cape should increase significantly during the day
especially if the clouds begin to scatter out. Deep layer shear
looks marginal at best with a weakness in the mid level winds. The
main uncertainty is will the forcing and convergence along the
boundary be enough to initiate storms. Models are also hinting at
deeper mixing in western KS, which could lead to possible dry
punches in central KS. These could also be locations for surface
convergence and storm development once the cap weakens. Either way
if storms do develop there is a chance they could be strong to
severe given the high instability, but will probably not be well
organized. As of now the better chances for precip appear to be
north central KS during the late afternoon and evening hours.
That shortwave will continue to lift northeastward Monday night and
into Tuesday morning. There are some timing issues among the models
therefore have kept some rain chances during the day Tuesday. The
forecast then becomes somewhat tricky to pin down precip timing as
the large scale flow weakens and small shortwaves traverse across
the center of the country. This west to southwest flow will persist
through late week. It is unlikely that we will be dealing with any
widespread heavy rain events similar to this weekend given this
expected pattern. A few more pronounced shortwaves lift out of
the Rockies late week, which could bring better chances for precip
next weekend. An actual front may come through as these waves
progress eastward to allow for a dry period early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 617 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
Tricky aviation forecast this morning. Weak low moving over MHK
likely to hold fog over that area for another hour or so before
lifting. Areas east have mixed out to to VFR and think this will
continue for a few hours before precipitation builds back in from
the south. TSRA to return near terminals late this afternoon with
more widespread convection after around 02z, then clearing quickly
by late in the TAF period.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ026-039-040-
054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Johnson
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...67
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
501 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
.DISCUSSION...
HAVE CANCELLED THE TORNADO WATCHES NUMBER 202 AND 204 FOR THE
FOUR STATE REGION WITH ONLY ONE STORM LEFT IN CALDWELL PARISH THAT
WOULD POSE A THREAT TO BECOMING SEVERE. EXPECTING ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING OVER PARTS OF EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUSIAIANA...AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING BAND THAT BROUGH
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER IN THE DAY. THERE MAY BE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
AND WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING SINCE WE HAD RAIN AT
JUST ABOUT ALL SITES. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT HELPED
PRODUCE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST BUT ON ITS HEELS ANOTHER ONE OVER NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS WILL COMBINE WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND REMAINING
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TO PROVIDE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.
THERE WILL BE A BREAK LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FROM RAIN...BUT ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE
THAT WILL BECOME NEGATIVE TILTED...SHIFT EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS
TEXAS AND INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION...AND PRODUCE THE NEXT ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE LOOK TO DEVELOP AND START TO
AFFECT PARTS OF EAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA NEAR MID DAY TO
LATE MORNING AND THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FOUR
STATE REION INTO THE AFTERNOON MONDAY AND OVERNIGHT. THE STORMS
WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG WITH PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFLL...WITH STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS...POSSIBLY LARGE
HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM THIS BAND OF RAIN ON MONDAY AND OVERNIGHT
WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL TWO TO FOUR INCHES...WITH A HIGH POTENTIAL
OF FLASH FLOODING DEVELOPING...SINCE GROUNDS WILL STILL BE NEAR
SATURATION AND HIGH WATER IN ALL RIVERS...CREEKS...AND LAKES.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY FOR THE
DEEP EAST TEXAS LAKES AREA AND ACROSS LOWER PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND
INTO NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS A WEAKLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE AFFECTED BY A SERIES OF WAVES
MOVING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OFF THE BAJA
COAST AND THEN A LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT DROPS ALONG THE WESTERN
COAST. THROUGH THE LATE WEEK A CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND SHIFT OUT INTO THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROLONG THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /06/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
UPDATE...
TO INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 204 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT FOR
THE FOUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IN THE WARNING AREA.
DISCUSSION...
ONE OF THE LEAD UPPER DISTRUBANCES WAS MOVING ACORSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTROMS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. LATER INTO
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ANOTHER SERIES OF SMALLER DISTURBANCES
WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION.
STILL LOOKING FOR ANOTHER STRONG NEGATIVE TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS
WEST TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE DAY MONDAY
PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS ROUND OF POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER AND RESULT IN ADDITIONAL TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN. THIS
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. /06
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 101 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
DISCUSSION...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE THE TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 202 IN
EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1152 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO LOWER THE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE DEEP EAST
TEXAS AND SOME OF THE OTHER ZONES IN EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS WITH
DRIER AIR FOLLOWING IN WAKE OF THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING. . MADE SOME TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR
THE ENDING RAIN AND DEVELOPING RAINFALL OVER THE EASTERN ZONES.
DISCUSSION...
THE HRRR AND OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATED THAT ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND
EAST TEXAS LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES
MOVING INTO THE AREA /06/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
AVIATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER MUCH OF E TX CONTINUE
TO MOVE N THIS SUNDAY MORNING. ALSO WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS SUNDAY IN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS AND SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY IN A CONTINUED VERY MOIST AIRMASS. /VIII/.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 70 83 69 85 / 70 70 90 40
MLU 70 83 70 83 / 70 70 90 80
DEQ 69 79 66 83 / 70 70 90 30
TXK 69 81 67 84 / 70 70 90 40
ELD 69 83 68 84 / 70 70 90 80
TYR 71 81 68 85 / 70 80 90 30
GGG 71 82 68 85 / 70 70 90 30
LFK 72 83 70 86 / 70 70 90 50
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ077.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
&&
$$
06
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
215 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
.UPDATE...
TO INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 204 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT FOR
THE FOUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IN THE WARNING AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ONE OF THE LEAD UPPER DISTRUBANCES WAS MOVING ACORSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTROMS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. LATER INTO
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ANOTHER SERIES OF SMALLER DISTURBANCES
WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION.
STILL LOOKING FOR ANOTHER STRONG NEGATIVE TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS
WEST TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE DAY MONDAY
PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS ROUND OF POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER AND RESULT IN ADDITIONAL TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN. THIS
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. /06
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 101 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
DISCUSSION...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE THE TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 202 IN
EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1152 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO LOWER THE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE DEEP EAST
TEXAS AND SOME OF THE OTHER ZONES IN EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS WITH
DRIER AIR FOLLOWING IN WAKE OF THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING. . MADE SOME TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR
THE ENDING RAIN AND DEVELOPING RAINFALL OVER THE EASTERN ZONES.
DISCUSSION...
THE HRRR AND OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATED THAT ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND
EAST TEXAS LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES
MOVING INTO THE AREA /06/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
AVIATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER MUCH OF E TX CONTINUE
TO MOVE N THIS SUNDAY MORNING. ALSO WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS SUNDAY IN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS AND SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY IN A CONTINUED VERY MOIST AIRMASS. /VIII/.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 82 70 83 69 / 90 60 70 80
MLU 86 70 82 70 / 90 80 70 80
DEQ 78 68 79 67 / 90 60 70 80
TXK 81 69 82 68 / 90 60 70 80
ELD 83 69 82 68 / 90 80 70 80
TYR 79 71 83 69 / 60 40 80 80
GGG 79 71 83 69 / 70 40 70 80
LFK 81 73 83 70 / 60 50 70 80
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ077.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
&&
$$
06
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
202 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES FOR TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 204 ISSUED
BY SPC UNTIL 8 PM FOR A MAJORITY OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AGAIN...DECENT INSTABILITY ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL JET
AND SHEAR IN THE AREA AHEAD OF THE MAIN RAIN BAND ASSOCIATED WITH
EARLIER MCS. SOME ROTATION MAY OCCUR IN THE CELLS DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THIS BAND...THEN ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.
RUA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
AVIATION...
LINE OF NORTH/SOUTH THUNDERSTORMS MARCHING INTO SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA AT THIS TIME. STORMS WILL MOVE INTO AEX AREA OF
OPERATIONS IN THE NEXT HOUR FOLLOWED BY LFT AND ARA. STORMS ARE
PRODUCING GUSTY SURFACE WINDS...RAINS HEAVY AT TIMES...AND CLOUD
TO CLOUD LIGHTNING. AVIATION INTEREST SHOULD BE AWARE OF LOWER
CEILING NEAR STORM ACTIVITY ALONG WITH RAPIDLY CHANGING WIND
DIRECTION AND SPEED. CONDS ARE BEGINNING TO IMPROVE OVER SE TX AS
THE LINE MOVES EASTWARD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
UPDATE...
ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE BEFORE WE REACH THE NOON HOUR. MCS IS
PLUGGING ALONG SLOWLY TO THE EAST WITH MAIN BAND ALONG THE SABINE
RIVER VALLEY AND NEARING THE GREATER LAKE CHARLES AREA...JUST A
TAD FASTER THAN WHAT THE EARLIER HRRR WAS SHOWING. ATMOSPHERE OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO STABILIZE NOW...REDUCING THE RISK
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IN THE NEAR TERM OVER THAT AREA...WITH
MAINLY JUST LIGHT RAIN TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
BEST SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. THIS SHOULD BE THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR THE HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON...FROM EAST OF THE SABINE
RIVER TO ROUGHLY JUST WEST OF ALEXANDRIA TO JENNINGS. THIS IS ALSO
ROUGHLY THE AREA THAT WPC HAS A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL...AND THE AREA THAT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY
URBAN FLOOD ADVISORIES OR FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BEING ISSUED. TIDE
LEVELS ALSO ALONG THE COAST ARE RUNNING A FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED
LEVELS AND NEARING 3 FEET MLLW AT THE CALCASIEU PASS GAUGE. AGAIN
THESE HIGHER TIDES COULD CAUSE BACK-UPS FOR BAYOUS THAT WOULD
NORMALLY DRAIN INTO SYSTEMS THAT GO INTO THE GULF...AND ALLOW
FLOODING TO OCCUR MORE EASILY.
ALSO...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS NOTED BY SPC ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. DECENT HEATING TAKING PLACE
AHEAD OF THE MAIN BAND...ALONG WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL JET WITH JUST
ENOUGH SHEAR THAT POCKETS ALONG THE MAIN BAND OR ISOLATED
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE BAND COULD TEND TO ROTATE WITH A CHANCE
FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
RUA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
UPDATE...
NOCTURNAL MCS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BEGINNING TO SLOW UP AND
THIS IS RAISING CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS REALLY GOOD SURFACE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
COAST TO HELP FEED AND FOCUS CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENT OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS RICH WITH MOISTURE WITH PROJECTED PRECIPITABLE
WATER NEAR 2 INCHES AND MEAN RH OVER 90 PERCENT. THEREFORE...THESE
STORMS SHOULD BE EFFICIENT PRECIP PRODUCERS WITH RAINFALL RATES
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER HOUR. TIDE LEVELS NEAR THE COAST ARE
ALSO RUNNING BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS WHICH
WILL HELP KEEP THE BAYOUS AND CREEKS FROM PROPERLY DRAINING. WILL
BE MONITORING THAT AREA CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE URBAN FLOOD
ADVISORIES OR FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BEFORE THE MORNING IS UP.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD WITH HRRR SHOWING THIS
BAND REACHING SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AROUND 18Z. ALTHOUGH DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO HELP DEVELOP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE MAIN BAND. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
DURING THE FIRST PERIOD TO KEEP UP WITH RADAR AND SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE TRENDS.
RUA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 709 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...
PRIMARY AVIATION ISSUE THIS MORNING IS TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MCV CROSSING METRO
HOUSTON ATTM. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO GET INTO KBPT TOWARD 15Z AND
KLCH 17Z. HRRR SHOWS THIS LINE BREAKING UP AFTER IT PASSES KLCH SO
HAVE ELECTED FOR NOW TO NOT CARRY PREVAILING PRECIP FOR REMAINING
SITES. OTHERWISE PRIMARY ISSUE REMAINS STRONG SRLY WINDS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS A TIGHT GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE THANKS TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE
REGION...AS WELL AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN.
25
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...
DISCUSSION...THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN FOR OUR AREA IS
APPROACHING. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE LARGER WEST U.S. TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING. CURRENTLY OVER TX STORMS ARE STRETCHED FROM BROWNSVILLE
TO DFW. THE PORTION OF WX THAT CONCERNS SE TX AND LA IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TX COAST AND WILL ARRIVE ROUGHLY AT 9 AM TO
JEFFERSON, HARDIN, AND TYLER COUNTIES. ALREADY SATURATED GROUND,
HIGH RAINFALL RATES, AND POTENTIALLY MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN
PROMPTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SE TX, SW AND CENTRAL LA
FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, HOWEVER RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY STRETCH IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR MASS AND HIGHER AMOUNT OF FORECASTED
QPF REMAINING JUST WEST OF LOWER ACADIANA THE WATCH WAS NOT EXPANDED
TO THAT AREA, HOWEVER ANY TRAINING STORM, IF IT DOES OCCUR, WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLOODING.
BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER TX ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTH CA IS ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE
RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN HIGH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DURING
TUESDAY THE MAIN TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING AS THIS OCCURS. A
SLIGHT DRYING OF THE AIR MASS WILL OCCUR ALOFT AS THE MAIN TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST.
ALSO DURING THE PERIOD OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... WHILE FLOODING
WILL REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT OF THIS EVENT, THERE IS A MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN LIMITED,
HOWEVER STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE LINES OF STORMS
MOVE THROUGH.
MAINLY SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WED AND THU
EVEN AS MODEST RIDGING OCCURS. THE MODEST RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BREAK DOWN AGAIN BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER, YET
WEAKER, UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE WESTERN STATES INTO THE
PLAINS.
MARINE...A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH NEAR SCA CRITERIA WINDS OCCURRING. THE
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
PLAINS LIFTS NE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS, CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF THE LATEST WEATHER AND
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER IF A STRONG STORM APPROACHES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 84 70 82 70 / 80 60 70 70
LCH 83 73 84 73 / 80 60 60 70
LFT 85 73 84 73 / 60 60 70 60
BPT 80 74 83 74 / 100 60 70 70
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-
073-074.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
259>262.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR GMZ450-
452-455-470-472-475.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
GMZ435.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
101 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE THE TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 202 IN
EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1152 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO LOWER THE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE DEEP EAST
TEXAS AND SOME OF THE OTHER ZONES IN EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS WITH
DRIER AIR FOLLOWING IN WAKE OF THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING. . MADE SOME TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR
THE ENDING RAIN AND DEVELOPING RAINFALL OVER THE EASTERN ZONES.
DISCUSSION...
THE HRRR AND OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATED THAT ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND
EAST TEXAS LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES
MOVING INTO THE AREA /06/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
AVIATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER MUCH OF E TX CONTINUE
TO MOVE N THIS SUNDAY MORNING. ALSO WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS SUNDAY IN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS AND SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY IN A CONTINUED VERY MOIST AIRMASS. /VIII/.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 82 70 83 69 85 / 90 60 70 80 40
MLU 86 70 82 70 84 / 90 80 70 80 70
DEQ 78 68 79 67 83 / 90 60 70 80 30
TXK 81 69 82 68 84 / 90 60 70 80 40
ELD 83 69 82 68 84 / 90 80 70 80 60
TYR 79 71 83 69 85 / 60 40 80 80 30
GGG 79 71 83 69 85 / 70 40 70 80 30
LFK 81 73 83 70 85 / 60 50 70 80 50
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ077.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
&&
$$
06
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1250 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
.AVIATION...
LINE OF NORTH/SOUTH THUNDERSTORMS MARCHING INTO SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA AT THIS TIME. STORMS WILL MOVE INTO AEX AREA OF
OPERATIONS IN THE NEXT HOUR FOLLOWED BY LFT AND ARA. STORMS ARE
PRODUCING GUSTY SURFACE WINDS...RAINS HEAVY AT TIMES...AND CLOUD
TO CLOUD LIGHTNING. AVIATION INTEREST SHOULD BE AWARE OF LOWER
CEILING NEAR STORM ACTIVITY ALONG WITH RAPIDLY CHANGING WIND
DIRECTION AND SPEED. CONDS ARE BEGINNING TO IMPROVE OVER SE TX AS
THE LINE MOVES EASTWARD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
UPDATE...
ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE BEFORE WE REACH THE NOON HOUR. MCS IS
PLUGGING ALONG SLOWLY TO THE EAST WITH MAIN BAND ALONG THE SABINE
RIVER VALLEY AND NEARING THE GREATER LAKE CHARLES AREA...JUST A
TAD FASTER THAN WHAT THE EARLIER HRRR WAS SHOWING. ATMOSPHERE OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO STABILIZE NOW...REDUCING THE RISK
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IN THE NEAR TERM OVER THAT AREA...WITH
MAINLY JUST LIGHT RAIN TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
BEST SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. THIS SHOULD BE THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR THE HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON...FROM EAST OF THE SABINE
RIVER TO ROUGHLY JUST WEST OF ALEXANDRIA TO JENNINGS. THIS IS ALSO
ROUGHLY THE AREA THAT WPC HAS A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL...AND THE AREA THAT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY
URBAN FLOOD ADVISORIES OR FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BEING ISSUED. TIDE
LEVELS ALSO ALONG THE COAST ARE RUNNING A FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED
LEVELS AND NEARING 3 FEET MLLW AT THE CALCASIEU PASS GAUGE. AGAIN
THESE HIGHER TIDES COULD CAUSE BACK-UPS FOR BAYOUS THAT WOULD
NORMALLY DRAIN INTO SYSTEMS THAT GO INTO THE GULF...AND ALLOW
FLOODING TO OCCUR MORE EASILY.
ALSO...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS NOTED BY SPC ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. DECENT HEATING TAKING PLACE
AHEAD OF THE MAIN BAND...ALONG WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL JET WITH JUST
ENOUGH SHEAR THAT POCKETS ALONG THE MAIN BAND OR ISOLATED
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE BAND COULD TEND TO ROTATE WITH A CHANCE
FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
RUA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
UPDATE...
NOCTURNAL MCS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BEGINNING TO SLOW UP AND
THIS IS RAISING CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS REALLY GOOD SURFACE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
COAST TO HELP FEED AND FOCUS CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENT OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS RICH WITH MOISTURE WITH PROJECTED PRECIPITABLE
WATER NEAR 2 INCHES AND MEAN RH OVER 90 PERCENT. THEREFORE...THESE
STORMS SHOULD BE EFFICIENT PRECIP PRODUCERS WITH RAINFALL RATES
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER HOUR. TIDE LEVELS NEAR THE COAST ARE
ALSO RUNNING BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS WHICH
WILL HELP KEEP THE BAYOUS AND CREEKS FROM PROPERLY DRAINING. WILL
BE MONITORING THAT AREA CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE URBAN FLOOD
ADVISORIES OR FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BEFORE THE MORNING IS UP.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD WITH HRRR SHOWING THIS
BAND REACHING SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AROUND 18Z. ALTHOUGH DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO HELP DEVELOP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE MAIN BAND. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
DURING THE FIRST PERIOD TO KEEP UP WITH RADAR AND SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE TRENDS.
RUA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 709 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...
PRIMARY AVIATION ISSUE THIS MORNING IS TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MCV CROSSING METRO
HOUSTON ATTM. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO GET INTO KBPT TOWARD 15Z AND
KLCH 17Z. HRRR SHOWS THIS LINE BREAKING UP AFTER IT PASSES KLCH SO
HAVE ELECTED FOR NOW TO NOT CARRY PREVAILING PRECIP FOR REMAINING
SITES. OTHERWISE PRIMARY ISSUE REMAINS STRONG SRLY WINDS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS A TIGHT GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE THANKS TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE
REGION...AS WELL AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN.
25
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...
DISCUSSION...THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN FOR OUR AREA IS
APPROACHING. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE LARGER WEST U.S. TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING. CURRENTLY OVER TX STORMS ARE STRETCHED FROM BROWNSVILLE
TO DFW. THE PORTION OF WX THAT CONCERNS SE TX AND LA IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TX COAST AND WILL ARRIVE ROUGHLY AT 9 AM TO
JEFFERSON, HARDIN, AND TYLER COUNTIES. ALREADY SATURATED GROUND,
HIGH RAINFALL RATES, AND POTENTIALLY MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN
PROMPTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SE TX, SW AND CENTRAL LA
FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, HOWEVER RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY STRETCH IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR MASS AND HIGHER AMOUNT OF FORECASTED
QPF REMAINING JUST WEST OF LOWER ACADIANA THE WATCH WAS NOT EXPANDED
TO THAT AREA, HOWEVER ANY TRAINING STORM, IF IT DOES OCCUR, WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLOODING.
BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER TX ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTH CA IS ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE
RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN HIGH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DURING
TUESDAY THE MAIN TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING AS THIS OCCURS. A
SLIGHT DRYING OF THE AIR MASS WILL OCCUR ALOFT AS THE MAIN TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST.
ALSO DURING THE PERIOD OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... WHILE FLOODING
WILL REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT OF THIS EVENT, THERE IS A MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN LIMITED,
HOWEVER STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE LINES OF STORMS
MOVE THROUGH.
MAINLY SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WED AND THU
EVEN AS MODEST RIDGING OCCURS. THE MODEST RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BREAK DOWN AGAIN BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER, YET
WEAKER, UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE WESTERN STATES INTO THE
PLAINS.
MARINE...A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH NEAR SCA CRITERIA WINDS OCCURRING. THE
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
PLAINS LIFTS NE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS, CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF THE LATEST WEATHER AND
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER IF A STRONG STORM APPROACHES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 70 82 70 83 / 80 70 70 70
LCH 73 84 73 85 / 80 60 70 70
LFT 73 84 73 85 / 80 70 60 70
BPT 74 83 74 85 / 80 70 70 60
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-
073-074.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
259>262.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR GMZ450-
452-455-470-472-475.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
GMZ435.
&&
$$
AVIATION...19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1156 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
.UPDATE...
ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE BEFORE WE REACH THE NOON HOUR. MCS IS
PLUGGING ALONG SLOWLY TO THE EAST WITH MAIN BAND ALONG THE SABINE
RIVER VALLEY AND NEARING THE GREATER LAKE CHARLES AREA...JUST A
TAD FASTER THAN WHAT THE EARLIER HRRR WAS SHOWING. ATMOSPHERE OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO STABILIZE NOW...REDUCING THE RISK
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IN THE NEAR TERM OVER THAT AREA...WITH
MAINLY JUST LIGHT RAIN TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
BEST SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. THIS SHOULD BE THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR THE HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON...FROM EAST OF THE SABINE
RIVER TO ROUGHLY JUST WEST OF ALEXANDRIA TO JENNINGS. THIS IS ALSO
ROUGHLY THE AREA THAT WPC HAS A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL...AND THE AREA THAT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY
URBAN FLOOD ADVISORIES OR FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BEING ISSUED. TIDE
LEVELS ALSO ALONG THE COAST ARE RUNNING A FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED
LEVELS AND NEARING 3 FEET MLLW AT THE CALCASIEU PASS GAUGE. AGAIN
THESE HIGHER TIDES COULD CAUSE BACK-UPS FOR BAYOUS THAT WOULD
NORMALLY DRAIN INTO SYSTEMS THAT GO INTO THE GULF...AND ALLOW
FLOODING TO OCCUR MORE EASILY.
ALSO...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS NOTED BY SPC ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. DECENT HEATING TAKING PLACE
AHEAD OF THE MAIN BAND...ALONG WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL JET WITH JUST
ENOUGH SHEAR THAT POCKETS ALONG THE MAIN BAND OR ISOLATED
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE BAND COULD TEND TO ROTATE WITH A CHANCE
FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
RUA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
UPDATE...
NOCTURNAL MCS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BEGINNING TO SLOW UP AND
THIS IS RAISING CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS REALLY GOOD SURFACE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
COAST TO HELP FEED AND FOCUS CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENT OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS RICH WITH MOISTURE WITH PROJECTED PRECIPITABLE
WATER NEAR 2 INCHES AND MEAN RH OVER 90 PERCENT. THEREFORE...THESE
STORMS SHOULD BE EFFICIENT PRECIP PRODUCERS WITH RAINFALL RATES
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER HOUR. TIDE LEVELS NEAR THE COAST ARE
ALSO RUNNING BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS WHICH
WILL HELP KEEP THE BAYOUS AND CREEKS FROM PROPERLY DRAINING. WILL
BE MONITORING THAT AREA CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE URBAN FLOOD
ADVISORIES OR FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BEFORE THE MORNING IS UP.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD WITH HRRR SHOWING THIS
BAND REACHING SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AROUND 18Z. ALTHOUGH DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO HELP DEVELOP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE MAIN BAND. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
DURING THE FIRST PERIOD TO KEEP UP WITH RADAR AND SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE TRENDS.
RUA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 709 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...
PRIMARY AVIATION ISSUE THIS MORNING IS TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MCV CROSSING METRO
HOUSTON ATTM. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO GET INTO KBPT TOWARD 15Z AND
KLCH 17Z. HRRR SHOWS THIS LINE BREAKING UP AFTER IT PASSES KLCH SO
HAVE ELECTED FOR NOW TO NOT CARRY PREVAILING PRECIP FOR REMAINING
SITES. OTHERWISE PRIMARY ISSUE REMAINS STRONG SRLY WINDS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS A TIGHT GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE THANKS TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE
REGION...AS WELL AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN.
25
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...
DISCUSSION...THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN FOR OUR AREA IS
APPROACHING. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE LARGER WEST U.S. TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING. CURRENTLY OVER TX STORMS ARE STRETCHED FROM BROWNSVILLE
TO DFW. THE PORTION OF WX THAT CONCERNS SE TX AND LA IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TX COAST AND WILL ARRIVE ROUGHLY AT 9 AM TO
JEFFERSON, HARDIN, AND TYLER COUNTIES. ALREADY SATURATED GROUND,
HIGH RAINFALL RATES, AND POTENTIALLY MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN
PROMPTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SE TX, SW AND CENTRAL LA
FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, HOWEVER RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY STRETCH IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR MASS AND HIGHER AMOUNT OF FORECASTED
QPF REMAINING JUST WEST OF LOWER ACADIANA THE WATCH WAS NOT EXPANDED
TO THAT AREA, HOWEVER ANY TRAINING STORM, IF IT DOES OCCUR, WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLOODING.
BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER TX ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTH CA IS ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE
RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN HIGH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DURING
TUESDAY THE MAIN TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING AS THIS OCCURS. A
SLIGHT DRYING OF THE AIR MASS WILL OCCUR ALOFT AS THE MAIN TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST.
ALSO DURING THE PERIOD OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... WHILE FLOODING
WILL REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT OF THIS EVENT, THERE IS A MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN LIMITED,
HOWEVER STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE LINES OF STORMS
MOVE THROUGH.
MAINLY SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WED AND THU
EVEN AS MODEST RIDGING OCCURS. THE MODEST RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BREAK DOWN AGAIN BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER, YET
WEAKER, UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE WESTERN STATES INTO THE
PLAINS.
MARINE...A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH NEAR SCA CRITERIA WINDS OCCURRING. THE
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
PLAINS LIFTS NE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS, CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF THE LATEST WEATHER AND
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER IF A STRONG STORM APPROACHES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 84 70 82 70 / 70 80 70 70
LCH 83 73 84 73 / 80 80 60 70
LFT 85 73 84 73 / 50 80 70 60
BPT 80 74 83 74 / 100 80 70 70
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-
073-074.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
259>262.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR GMZ450-
452-455-470-472-475.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
GMZ435.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1152 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO LOWER THE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE DEEP EAST
TEXAS AND SOME OF THE OTHER ZONES IN EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS WITH
DRIER AIR FOLLOWING IN WAKE OF THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING. . MADE SOME TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR
THE ENDING RAIN AND DEVELOPING RAINFALL OVER THE EASTERN ZONES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE HRRR AND OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATED THAT ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND
EAST TEXAS LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES
MOVING INTO THE AREA /06/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
AVIATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER MUCH OF E TX CONTINUE
TO MOVE N THIS SUNDAY MORNING. ALSO WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS SUNDAY IN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS AND SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY IN A CONTINUED VERY MOIST AIRMASS. /VIII/.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 82 70 83 69 / 90 60 70 80
MLU 86 70 82 70 / 90 80 70 80
DEQ 78 68 79 67 / 90 60 70 80
TXK 81 69 82 68 / 90 60 70 80
ELD 83 69 82 68 / 90 80 70 80
TYR 79 71 83 69 / 60 40 80 80
GGG 79 71 83 69 / 70 40 70 80
LFK 81 73 83 70 / 60 50 70 80
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ077.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
&&
$$
06
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
418 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE WRN CONUS WITH A LOW OVER SRN WY AND A RIDGE FROM THE SE CONUS
TO THE WRN LAKES. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LIFINT TO THE NNE TRHOUGH
FROM ERN IA WHILE ANOTHER TRAILED OVER OK. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WAS
LOCATED OVER SW IA WITH A WARM FRONT INTO NRN IL. A SURGE OF
MOISTURE (8 G/KG AND 850 MB DEWPONTS AROUND 12C) WITH STRONG 300K-
310K ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT SUPPORTED A LARGE AREA
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FROM SE MN THROUGH SRN WI INTO NRN IL.
VIS/IR LOOPS SHOWED THICKENING MID/HIGH CLOUDS INTO UPPER MI NORTH
OF THE AREA OF RAIN. TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
BUT HAVE FALLEN OFF N CNTRL AS A LAKE BREEZE MOVED IN.
RADAR TRENDS AND MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE AREA OF RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD THROUGH THE CWA FROM S TO N BTWN 23Z-06Z. SUPPORTED BY
MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300 QVECTOR CONV AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A JET OVER NRN ONTARIO...WIDESRPEAD MODERATE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH QPF FROM 1.0-1.5 INCHES THROUGH
MON. THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ARE EXEPCTED OVER THE SE WHERE THE
STRONGER MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS FOCUSED.
THE FIRST AREA OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF DURING THE MORNING
OVER THE SOUTH AND THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE TRAILING
SHORTWAVE FROM THE SRN WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL RAIN INTO THE WEST BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. NO THUNDER WAS MENTIONED...GIVEN LITTLE OR NO
FCST ELEVATED CAPE AND LACK OF LIGHTNING UPSTREAM.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS LIFTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS WEEK AS ADDITIONAL
TROUGHING MOVES OVER NORTHWEST CONUS. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...NW CONUS
TROUGH MOVES EAST AND MERGES WITH DEEPER TROUGH MOVING FM CNTRL
CANADA OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
LK SUPERIOR ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL DRAG A TROUGH ACROSS UPPER LAKES ON
TUESDAY AS IT MOVES TO QUEBEC. MOST RAIN WILL BE DONE BY 00Z TUESDAY
AS DRY SLOT MOVES IN FM THE SOUTH IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW
MOVING THROUGH. TRACK OF SFC LOW STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT SEEMS IT WILL
BE SOMEWHERE OVER CNTRL OR EASTERN LK SUPERIOR...COMPARED TO FARTHER
WEST TRACK MODELS WERE PREVIOUSLY INDICATING. RESULT WILL BE TO KEEP
EASTERLY COMPONENT WIND OVER THE KEWEENAW INTO THE EVENING AND THUS
A BETTER CHANCE OF FOG OR EVEN SOME DRIZZLE. SSW-SW WINDS ELSEWHERE
WILL LIMIT MOST OF THE FOG VCNTY OF LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE.
NEXT BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS
MODELS INDICATE SHORTWAVES CURRENTLY OVER FAR SOUTHERN CA AND IN THE
VCNTY OF UPPER LOW CENTER OVER INTERMOUNTAIN WEST COMBINE TO LIFT
ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES. MAY EVEN BE STRONG ENOUGH SYSTEM TO HELP
DEVELOP A SFC LOW PRESSURE. HEAVIEST QPF WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF
H85-H7 LOWS...WHICH IS NOT QUITE CLEAR. GFS FAVORS FAR WESTERN UPR
MICHIGAN WHILE GEM-NH AND ECMWF ARE MORE OVER CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT WITH MUCAPES OF AT LEAST 300 J/KG ECMWF
OR UP OVER 1000J/KG AS THIS WAVE LIFTS THROUGH...SO DID INCLUDE TSRA
MENTION ON TUE/TUE NIGHT. IF FARTHER WEST TRACK VERIFIES...POTENTIAL
IS THERE FOR SFC BASED TSRA TUE AFTN INTO TUE EVENING. MAX TEMPS ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH 70S INLAND WEST.
HOWEVER...EAST WINDS CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR AND SOUTH WINDS CLOSER TO
LK MICHIGAN WILL KEEP IT COOLEST IN THOSE AREAS DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW
AND ALSO LINGERING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OR TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF UPPER LAKES BY WED.
COULD BE WEAKER WAVE ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THAT INTERACTS WITH SOME
AFTN HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLD SHRA OR EVEN TSRA...MAINLY WEST. GEM-
NH AND ECMWF HINTING AT THIS...SO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES EVEN THOUGH
GFS FAVORS DRY CONDITIONS. LIGHTER WEST WINDS WILL ONLY BE LOCALLY
ONSHORE...SO MOST AREAS SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 70S AS H85 TEMPS
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TEENS C.
TROUGH ALOFT SETTLES OVER UPR LAKES ON THURSDAY WHILE MORE ORGANIZED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST FM THE NORTHWEST CONUS. SFC LOW AND
TROUGH WILL EDGE ACROSS UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY
THEN SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
TROUGH WILL THEN BE SHOVED SOUTH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPR GREAT LAKES. BEST SHOT OF SHRA AND POSSIBLE
TSRA ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE WEST THEN OVER ALL OF CWA
ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER AND SFC COLD FRONT SWEEP THROUGH. MODELS ALL
HAVE THE GENERAL IDEA OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT VARY ON WHEN
PASSAGE OCCURS. GFS IS QUICKEST WITH MOST OF AREA DRY BY FRIDAY
AFTN. ECMWF AND GEM-NH ARE SLOWER...BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH ON
FRIDAY OR EVEN FRIDAY NIGHT. NO MATTER WHICH SOLUTION IS
PREFERRED...APPEARS COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ON THE WAY NEXT
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...DRY AIR
WILL LINGER AT THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. BY LATE
THIS EVENING...AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL LIFT N INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...BRINGING DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES. CONDITIONS
WILL FALL TO IFR OR LOWER AT ALL TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT. IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MOIST ERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW OFF OF LAKE INTO CMX MAY DROP VSBY DOWN TOWARD VLIFR
MON MORNING BUT WITH RAIN PREVAILING...NOT CONFIDENT IN LOWERING VSBY
BELOW 1SM YET.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015
LIGHT WINDS INCREASE ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LIFTS TOWARD LK SUPERIOR. EAST WINDS MAY REACH 25
KTS...STRONGEST OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. LOW SLIDES OVERHEAD ON
MONDAY NIGHT SO THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH. WINDS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BLO 20 KTS. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND IT SHOULD LINGER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE FOG MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES. ONCE IT IS EVIDENT
HOW EXPANSIVE THE FOG IS...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
430 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
TODAY HAS BEEN ABOUT AS MUCH OF A WASHOUT AS YOU CAN GET AS AN
ISENTROPICALLY FORCED RAIN SHIELD LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TO THE
NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT THIS AFTERNOON WAS APPROACHING I-80 DOWN
IN IOWA. MODELS OF BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC AND CAM VARIETY ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS BAND SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE STALLING OUT OVERNIGHT FROM WEST CENTRAL MN OVER TOWARD NW WI
AS A SFC LOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER SRN MN AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS INTO THE STATE. FOLLOWED THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE HOPWRF
MEMBERS AND HRRR WITH THE POPS IN BRINGING SOME LOW CHANCE POPS UP
THROUGH ABOUT THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS A DRY PERIOD LOOKS
TO GET ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS A MONTEVIDEO/TWIN CITIES/EAU CLAIRE LINE.
WHERE A FAIR DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY LIES IS WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THIS
BAND OF RAIN LIFTS NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND THE STRONG SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OK MOVES TOWARD WI. THERE
SHOULD BE A BAND OF MOD TO HEAVY RAIN THAT LIFTS NORTH WITH THIS
WAVE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...BUT WHERE IT GOES IS
WHERE THE UNCERTAINTY LIES. THE GFS AND CANADIAN BRING THIS BAND
ACROSS WRN WI WHILE THE NAM/ECMWF TAKE IT MORE TOWARD GREEN BAY. THE
SHORT TERM MODELS...WHICH NOW END MONDAY MORNING WOULD FAVOR THE ERN
SOLUTION BEING CORRECT. IF THAT IS THAT CASE...THEN A DRY SLOT WILL
RESULT IN A DRY MEMORIAL DAY OUTSIDE OF THE PERSISTENT RAIN BAND
ACROSS CENTRAL MN. THE GFS/CANADIAN SOLUTION WOULD HAVE YET ANOTHER
WASHOUT FOR FOLKS IN WRN WI. HARD TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BET WET OR
DRY...SO JUST REDUCED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY IN OUR EAST
MONDAY MORNING GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
OTHER CHANGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WAS TO REMOVE MOST OF THE THUNDER
MENTION AS WE JUST DO NOT SEE ANY INSTABILITY DEVELOP. THE LONE
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MN MONDAY AFTERNOON WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND 70...ALLOWING FOR A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG OF CAPE TO DEVELOP. CAMS ALSO SHOW THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
FIRING OFF STORMS IN WRN IOWA MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY START
GETTING NEAR THE I-90 CORRIDOR BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
FOR TEMPERATURES...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES PRETTY MUCH STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR HIGHS
TOMORROW...WITH CONTINUED LIGHT RAIN AND CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL MN
EXPECTED...DID DROP HIGHS DOWN TO JUST THE LOW 60S THERE...WHILE THE
RETURN OF SW WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON IN SRN MN SHOULD ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM CLOSER TO LATE MAY NORMALS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
WE PICK UP THE LONG TERM ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION ABOVE MENTIONED THE THREAT FOR THUNDER IN FAR SOUTHERN
MN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO EXACTLY
HOW FAR NORTH STORMS WILL END UP. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG
THE 12Z AND 18Z GUIDANCE THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL MAKE IT INTO
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TOMORROW WITH WEAK TO MODERATE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ARRIVING IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 21Z-
00Z. THE AVAILABLE CAM GUIDANCE /WRF-ARW...WRF-NMM...NAM NEST/
SUPPORTS A HEALTHY EAST-WEST ORIENTATED LINE OF CONVECTION
BREAKING OUT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON SOMEWHERE NEAR THE IA/MN IN
RESPONSE TO BUILDING INSTABILITY AND THE ARRIVAL OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
CAN`T RE RULED OUT AT THIS POINT.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOW TO CLEAR THE EASTERN FORECAST ON
TUESDAY...SO WE FELT IT WAS BEST TO LINGER THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI UNTIL BUILDING
HEIGHTS KICK THE FRONT TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THEREFORE...THE MIDDLE OF THIS COMING WEEK LOOKS DRY AT THE
MOMENT. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ANOTHER TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH MN/WI
LATE IN THE WEEK. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COULD SEE A COUPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN FALL GIVEN
ANOTHER SLOW FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
WHAT IS A CERTAINTY IS RAIN AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE FIRST 6 HOURS
OF THE TAF. RAIN SHIELD MOVING ACROSS THE AREA NOW WILL BECOME
ANCHORED TONIGHT FROM WC MN TOWARD NW WI...WITH PRECIP LIKELY
ENDING AFTER 6Z FOR RWF AND POSSIBLY MSP. ALSO A CERTAINTY ARE
CIGS GOING UNDER VFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR OVERNIGHT. CURRENT TAFS
ARE PROBABLY A BIT OPTIMISTIC ON WHEN MVFR/IFR CIGS MOVE IN...AS
MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE STARTING TO MAKE A BIT MORE NRN PROGRESS INTO
SRN MN. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE A BIT DIFFICULT OVERNIGHT AS A
SFC LOW BY MONDAY MORNING WILL BE CENTERED NEAR EAU. WITH THE LOW
PASSING OVERHEAD...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...BUT DIRECTION WILL
GET A BIT TRICKY TO PIN DOWN...BUT FOLLOWED THE TREND OF THE SREF
FOR DIRECTIONS WITH THE 18Z TAFS.
KMSP...SREF PROBS FOR IFR CIGS AFTER 6Z INCREASE TO ALMOST
100%...SO FEEL CONFIDENT IN CIGS STARTING OFF MONDAY UNDER 1K FT.
CONFIDENT IN RAIN FALLING AS WELL THROUGH ABOUT 4Z...BUT AFTER
THAT IT MAY BE MOSTLY DRY AT MSP FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AS
PRECIP STAYS NORTH AND EAST OF THE FIELD.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS SW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC SHRA/-TSRA. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
437 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND AIDED BY BROAD UPPER TROUGHING OVER
THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE COUNTRY AND A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING
THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WHILE CONVECTION HASN`T BEEN
PARTICULARLY DEEP SO FAR TODAY...SOME OF THE STORMS HAVE STILL BEEN
EFFICIENT WIND PRODUCERS. TORNADO WATCH 204 HAS BEEN POSTED FOR ALL
OF OUR LA PARISHES/AR COUNTIES AND PORTIONS OF WEST/CENTRAL MS.
HOWEVER THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE ON THE LOW END...
ESPECIALLY WITH EASTWARD EXTENT. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS
RATHER MARGINAL SRH AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA...WITH NEITHER EXPECTED TO SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS PER SPC SSEO/RECENT RAP RUNS. BUFR SOUNDING ANALYSIS/VWPS
ARE MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL. HOWEVER DEEP LAYER/EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS
INCREASING OVER MUCH OF THE DELTA...SO THERE IS GREATER CONCERN FOR
POTENTIAL DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING.
EVEN AS THE SHORTWAVE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION...SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY AS MID/UPPER
FLOW WILL BE NEARLY MERIDIONAL THUS NOT GIVING ACTIVITY MUCH OF AN
EASTWARD PUSH OUT OF OUR AREA. ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL SWING
ACROSS THE LOWER PLAINS/MS VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING SOME POSSIBILITY FOR A
TORNADO OR TWO WOULD BE ACROSS THE DELTA...WHERE THE BEST OVERLAY OF
STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND HELICITY IS PROGGED. SIMILARLY WE MAY
SOME CONVECTION BECOME REINVIGORATED FARTHER EAST ACROSS A LARGER
PORTION OF THE CWA DURING THE DAYTIME TUESDAY AS STRONGER FORCING
SPREADS EASTWARD.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS PWATS INCREASE TO
AROUND 1 3/4 INCH. IT APPEARS WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW ENOUGH
TO PRECLUDE A NOTABLE FLOOD THREAT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER
FLOODING COULD BECOME A GREATER CONCERN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST (PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 2 IN) AND
THE GROUND WILL HAVE BECOME MORE SATURATED DUE TO RAIN FROM
TODAY/TONIGHT. /DL/
LONG TERM...AS WE GO INTO THE REST OF THE PERIOD WE WILL SEE SOME
HEIGHT RISES AS WE GO TOWARD A MORE DIURNAL DRIVEN REGIME FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION. THE MEAN RIDGE WILL FLUCTUATE
SOME DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD./17/
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AT MOST
TAF SITES ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH
TONIGHT AND SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BRING BRIEF POTENTIAL FOR
CEILINGS AND VIS RESTRICTION IFR OR WORSE...AND ALSO SOME VERY GUSTY
WINDS. EVEN AWAY FROM THE STORMS EXPECT RATHER WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. EXPECT ADDITIONAL
NUMEROUS STORMS TOMORROW WITH OF COURSE POTENTIAL HAZARDS FOR
EXCLUSIVELY VFR TRAFFIC. /BB/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 71 81 70 81 / 64 62 46 76
MERIDIAN 69 80 69 80 / 39 60 40 79
VICKSBURG 71 84 71 81 / 73 60 67 79
HATTIESBURG 71 81 71 82 / 56 66 42 73
NATCHEZ 71 84 71 81 / 70 66 66 77
GREENVILLE 70 83 70 80 / 83 69 74 78
GREENWOOD 71 83 70 79 / 79 66 58 79
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
DL/17/BB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
1210 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FORTHCOMING. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP AND
QPF GRIDS THIS MORNING. UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING COUNTIES TO
PROVIDE A MOIST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN
CONTINUES AT LEWISTOWN AND OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN JUDITH BASIN
COUNTY AND IS REFLECTED IN HIGHER POPS. SPC PLACES THE AREA UNDER A
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM RISK AND HRRR ANALYSIS INDICATES ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER 18Z. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1810Z.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
03Z MONDAY. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT...WITH MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. BRUSDA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 354 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A BROAD UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN SLOWLY
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...MAINTAINING A WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE DISSIPATING THIS MORNING...BUT IR SATELLITE AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE VARIABLE LOW CLOUDS. AREAS OF FOG
ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN THE MOIST AND CALM ENVIRONMENT. SHORT
TERM MODELS SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY...BUT GENERALLY LESS WIDESPREAD THAN
OBSERVED ON SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE REGION ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON...SUPPRESSING ALL BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS COMPARED TO THOSE
OF THE LAST FEW DAYS. NUTTER
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START OFF UNSETTLED.
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY WILL WEAKEN INTO AN
UPPER TROUGH AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND FINALLY BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
LIKELY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FRIDAY WILL MOVE EAST AND BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY. EVEN
WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. AND SPEAKING OF
HEATING HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
READING IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 BY SUNDAY. BLANK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 64 44 70 48 / 20 10 10 30
CTB 67 40 70 46 / 20 0 10 30
HLN 65 45 72 50 / 20 20 20 40
BZN 59 40 67 44 / 60 30 20 30
WEY 56 33 60 37 / 30 20 40 50
DLN 61 40 68 44 / 30 20 30 50
HVR 72 43 75 47 / 20 10 10 20
LWT 61 44 67 46 / 40 30 20 20
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
1010 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FORTHCOMING. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP AND
QPF GRIDS THIS MORNING. UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING COUNTIES TO
PROVIDE A MOIST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN
CONTINUES AT LEWISTOWN AND OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN JUDITH BASIN
COUNTY AND IS REFLECTED IN HIGHER POPS. SPC PLACES THE AREA UNDER A
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM RISK AND HRRR ANALYSIS INDICATES ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER 18Z. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OVER THE EAST SLOPES UNTIL 15Z. THERE IS ALSO A
CHANCE OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN THE
SOUTHWEST VALLEYS ALSO UNTIL 15Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
AND AFFECT CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. SHOWERS WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED ALONG THE U.S. ROUTE 2 CORRIDOR. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT. BLANK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 354 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A BROAD UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN SLOWLY
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...MAINTAINING A WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE DISSIPATING THIS MORNING...BUT IR SATELLITE AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE VARIABLE LOW CLOUDS. AREAS OF FOG
ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN THE MOIST AND CALM ENVIRONMENT. SHORT
TERM MODELS SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY...BUT GENERALLY LESS WIDESPREAD THAN
OBSERVED ON SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE REGION ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON...SUPPRESSING ALL BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS COMPARED TO THOSE
OF THE LAST FEW DAYS. NUTTER
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START OFF UNSETTLED.
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY WILL WEAKEN INTO AN
UPPER TROUGH AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND FINALLY BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
LIKELY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FRIDAY WILL MOVE EAST AND BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY. EVEN
WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. AND SPEAKING OF
HEATING HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
READING IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 BY SUNDAY. BLANK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 64 44 70 48 / 20 10 10 30
CTB 67 40 70 46 / 20 0 10 30
HLN 65 45 72 50 / 20 20 20 40
BZN 59 40 67 44 / 60 30 20 30
WEY 56 33 60 37 / 30 20 40 50
DLN 61 40 68 44 / 30 20 30 50
HVR 72 43 75 47 / 20 10 10 20
LWT 61 44 67 46 / 40 30 20 20
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
314 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. A VERY WEAK
WARM FRONT HAD LIFTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS THIS MORNING...BUT THOSE HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WERE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS...AND THIS WILL THE PRIMARY ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE EVENING. INSTABILITY IS AGAIN MARGINAL TODAY AND THIS
WILL MOSTLY BE SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE
HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. THE BETTER FORCING AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AS A UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE RAP KEEPS THE BEST
PRECIP CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...AS WELL AS
WESTERN NEBRASKA CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. WILL PLAY POPS THAT WAY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT...WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS
THE REGION...AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...SCATTERED SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AS A REINFORCING WARM FRONT MOVES INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. AGAIN...SHOULD MOSTLY BE SHOWERS...BUT
A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE AND WEAKLY NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES
COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
OTHER THAN SOME MINOR POP MODIFICATIONS...GOING FCST LOOKS ON TRACK
THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. FORTUNATELY MODELS ARE IN QUITE GOOD
AGREEMENT BULK OF ACCUMULATING PCPN WILL BE FOUND WELL EAST OF THE
CWA. NEVERTHELESS...POTENTIAL FOR SOME PCPN WILL STILL EXIST EARLY
ON IN THE FCST PD.
BEGINNING MONDAY AFTN...MODELS IN AGREEMENT ADVERTISING
INCREASING BNDRY LYR THETA-E ADVECTION COUPLED WITH VIGOROUS
LITTLE VORT MAX WILL ALLOW FOR QUICK ENVIRONMENTAL DESTABILIZATION
OVER THE REGION. CONVECTIVE INITIATION ENSUES JUST NW OF THE CWA
ALONG AXIS OF LLVL THETA-E CONVG/INVERTED SFC TROF BEFORE ACTIVITY
QUICKLY EXPANDS EWD INTO THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING...EXPECT PCPN TO EXIT THE CWA AS UPPER VORT
MAX TAKES BEST LIFT/MOISTURE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
TURNING TO WEDNESDAY...UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS
WILL FINALLY BRING PLEASANT CONDITIONS BACK THE REGION WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND HIGHS TOPPING OUT AROUND 80.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
LARGE SCALE FLOW PER ECM/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND SHOWING A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS
GRADUALLY MIGRATING EAST AND EVENTUALLY REACHING THE CNTRL PLAINS ON
FRIDAY. CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE ON TAP THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED
PDS IN RESPONSE TO PROLONGED MOIST UPGLIDE AND INCREASING UPPER
SUPPORT VIA APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROF. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THRU FRIDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND HIGHS ONLY IN
THE MID/UPPER 60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
CHALLENGING FORECAST. MVFR CLOUDS AT KLNK AND IFR AT KOMA/KLNK
COULD VERY WELL LIFT TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGHER CEILINGS
POISED JUST TO THE SOUTH CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA AS A REINFORCING WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY APPEAR TO BE AT KOMA/KOFK 03-09Z...BUT STILL NOT
CONFIDENT IN THAT DEVELOPMENT. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DROP BACK
TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY LIFR AT KOFK BY 10Z...THEN BACK TO MVFR
LATER MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
TONIGHT...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...DEWALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
344 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SEEING SOME SCT TSRA REDEVELOP ACROSS N PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE
HEATING AND RRQ OF DEPARTING JET ARE WORKING THEIR MAGIC.
ANTICIPATE THESE TO TAPER OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. IN THE
MEANTIME...CAN STILL SEE SOME ISO STRONG STORMS/DOWNPOURS THAT`LL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.
OVERNIGHT SYSTEM MADE MUCH QUICKER EWD PROGRESS THAN EXPECTED
YDAY AND IS WELL INTO CNTL LA. (FASTER NAM12 ACTUALLY DID A
RESPECTABLE JOB). ALSO SEE NO LINGERING SFC BOUNDARY ALONG I-10
ON CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS THAT SOME MODELS WERE INDICATING FOR
TONIGHT - SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AS
ONSHORE FLOW AND LLJ FEEDS INTO IT. ONLY CANADIAN AND POSSIBLY LATER
SPC HRRR RUNS DEPICT SUCH A SCENARIO NOW - THE REST (INCLUDING
ECMWF) KEEP THE REGION MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT. THIS GIVES US A BIT
MORE CONFIDENCE IN A DRIER OVERNIGHT PERIOD THAN EARLIER - BUT
STILL NO GUARANTY. HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWERED POPS IN RESPONSE.
NEXT IMPULSE SEEN ON W/V IMAGERY IN SRN NEVADA WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE STATE MONDAY. EXPECT THIS DISTURBANCE TO TRIGGER ANOTHER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO OUR WEST. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING
INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TOWARD MID MORNING AND ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ISSUED
ANOTHER FF WATCH FROM MID MORNING INTO THE EVENING MON FOR
LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW FAST THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT AND SOME LOCATIONS
MIGHT SEE PRECIPITATION CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. IN GENERAL...EXPECT
1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE WATCH AREA AND LESS SO FURTHER
SOUTH. LOCALIZED HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE TRAINING CELLS
OCCUR...AND ALSO IF THE EVENT DRAGS ON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THIS WATCH WILL NEED TO BE EXPANDED IN TIME IF IT DOES.
IN ADDITION TO TRAINING STORMS...DYNAMICS W/ THIS SYSTEM ALSO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND
TORNADOES BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. GROUNDS ARE WET AND TREES ARE
MORE PRONE TO BE BLOWN DOWN WITH LESS INTENSE WINDS THAN THEY
MIGHT OTHERWISE.
SPOKE ABOUT THE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT MON NIGHT REGARDING TIMING OF
THE EXIT OF PRECIP. WILL JUST NEED TO WATCH TRENDS. REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK WOULD ANTICIPATE SCT (MAINLY AFTN/EVNG) PRECIP EACH
DAY ACROSS INLAND AREAS. ANOTHER TROF APPROACHES THE NEIGHBORHOOD
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ALONG W/ HIGHER POPS UNFORTUNATELY. 47
&&
MARINE...
LOOKS LIKE A REPRISE FROM WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAYS AND
GULF WATERS UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TONIGHT AND LIKELY UNTIL MONDAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO WEAKEN A BIT TONIGHT...BUT THEN
TIGHTEN BACK UP ON MONDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AGAIN MONDAY EVENING. FOR
THE MOST PART EXPECT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE WINDS COULD DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BELOW 21
KNOTS TONIGHT AT LEAST OVER THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS.
REGARDING THE TIDES...GALVESTON CHANNEL AND THE NORTH JETTY BOTH
RECORDED TIDE LEVELS OF ABOUT REACHED ABOUT 1.2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS DURING THE TIME OF THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE EARLIER TODAY.
TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER LATE TOMORROW MORNING
DURING THE HIGH TIDE TIME. EVEN SO...WAVE RUN UP COULD STILL PRESENT
SOME PROBLEMS WITH MINOR FLOODING ON LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE GULF
FACING BEACHES OF THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. 40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 73 84 71 87 74 / 50 90 70 30 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 74 84 72 87 74 / 30 80 60 40 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 78 84 78 85 78 / 30 80 60 20 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...
COLORADO...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...LIBERTY...MADISON...
MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
WALLER...WASHINGTON.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
338 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SEEING SOME SCT TSRA REDEVELOP ACROSS N PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE
HEATING AND RRQ OF DEPARTING JET ARE WORKING THEIR MAGIC.
ANTICIPATE THESE TO TAPER OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. IN THE
MEANTIME...CAN STILL SEE SOME ISO STRONG STORMS/DOWNPOURS THAT`LL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.
OVERNIGHT SYSTEM MADE MUCH QUICKER EWD PROGRESS THAN EXPECTED
YDAY AND IS WELL INTO CNTL LA. (FASTER NAM12 ACTUALLY DID A
RESPECTABLE JOB). ALSO SEE NO LINGERING SFC BOUNDARY ALONG I-10
ON CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS THAT SOME MODELS WERE INDICATING FOR
TONIGHT - SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AS
ONSHORE FLOW AND LLJ FEEDS INTO IT. ONLY CANADIAN AND POSSIBLY LATER
SPC HRRR RUNS DEPICT SUCH A SCENARIO NOW - THE REST (INCLUDING
ECMWF) KEEP THE REGION MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT. THIS GIVES US A BIT
MORE CONFIDENCE IN A DRIER OVERNIGHT PERIOD THAN EARLIER - BUT
STILL NO GUARANTY. HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWERED POPS IN RESPONSE.
NEXT IMPULSE SEEN ON W/V IMAGERY IN SRN NEVADA WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE STATE MONDAY. EXPECT THIS DISTURBANCE TO TRIGGER ANOTHER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO OUR WEST. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING
INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TOWARD MID MORNING AND ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ISSUED
ANOTHER FF WATCH FROM MID MORNING INTO THE EVENING MON FOR
LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW FAST THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT AND SOME LOCATIONS
MIGHT SEE PRECIPITATION CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. IN GENERAL...EXPECT
1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE WATCH AREA AND LESS SO FURTHER
SOUTH. LOCALIZED HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE TRAINING CELLS
OCCUR...AND ALSO IF THE EVENT DRAGS ON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THIS WATCH WILL NEED TO BE EXPANDED IN TIME IF IT DOES.
IN ADDITION TO TRAINING STORMS...DYNAMICS W/ THIS SYSTEM ALSO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND
TORNADOES BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. GROUNDS ARE WET AND TREES ARE
MORE PRONE TO BE BLOWN DOWN WITH LESS INTENSE WINDS THAN THEY
MIGHT OTHERWISE.
SPOKE ABOUT THE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT TUES NIGHT REGARDING TIMING OF
THE EXIT OF PRECIP. WILL JUST NEED TO WATCH TRENDS. REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK WOULD ANTICIPATE SCT (MAINLY AFTN/EVNG) PRECIP EACH
DAY ACROSS INLAND AREAS. ANOTHER TROF APPROACHES THE NEIGHBORHOOD
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ALONG W/ HIGHER POPS UNFORTUNATELY. 47
&&
.MARINE...
LOOKS LIKE A REPRISE FROM WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAYS AND
GULF WATERS UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TONIGHT AND LIKELY UNTIL MONDAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO WEAKEN A BIT TONIGHT...BUT THEN
TIGHTEN BACK UP ON MONDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AGAIN MONDAY EVENING. FOR
THE MOST PART EXPECT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE WINDS COULD DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BELOW 21
KNOTS TONIGHT AT LEAST OVER THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS.
REGARDING THE TIDES...GALVESTON CHANNEL AND THE NORTH JETTY BOTH
RECORDED TIDE LEVELS OF ABOUT REACHED ABOUT 1.2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS DURING THE TIME OF THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE EARLIER TODAY.
TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER LATE TOMORROW MORNING
DURING THE HIGH TIDE TIME. EVEN SO...WAVE RUN UP COULD STILL PRESENT
SOME PROBLEMS WITH MINOR FLOODING ON LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE GULF
FACING BEACHES OF THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. 40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 73 84 71 87 74 / 50 90 70 30 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 74 84 72 87 74 / 30 80 60 40 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 78 84 78 85 78 / 30 80 60 20 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...
COLORADO...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...LIBERTY...MADISON...
MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
WALLER...WASHINGTON.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
322 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
THE SHORT BREAK FROM PRECIPITATION CONTINUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE SEEN A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING TO FORM UP IN WILLIAMSON COUNTY.
THIS SUPPORTS WHAT THE HRRR SHOWS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
DRY AIR HAS FILTERED IN BEHIND THE TWO LINES OF CONVECTION THIS
MORNING. ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS REMAINING DRY
OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY THE NAM SHOWING ANY CONVECTION/QPF OVERNIGHT.
WILL DISCOUNT THE NAM FOR NOW.
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS NOW ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA BORDER. THIS WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY.
MODELS ARE A BIT SPLIT ON TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW...BUT THEY ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON QPF AMOUNTS.
THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL CONCENTRATE QPF ACROSS THE NORTHERN
I-35 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY AND BEXAR COUNTY AREA. STILL THOUGH MODELS ARE SHOWING 1
TO 3 INCHES ACROSS AREAS THAT NOT ONLY HAD 1 TO 3...OR IN SOME
CASES A LOT MORE...INCHES OF A RAIN LAST NIGHT BUT HAVE ALSO HAD
SEVERAL HEAVY RAIN EVENTS OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS...LIKE THE
BASTROP AND LEE COUNTY AREAS. THE HEAVIER STORMS TOMORROW COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL UP TO 5 INCHES. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE MORE FLOODING CONCERNS SO FOR THAT REASON WE WILL
BE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM MONDAY THROUGH 1 AM ON
TUESDAY. AGAIN ALTHOUGH QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER
TOMORROW THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT THE ALREADY SATURATED GROUND
CANNOT TAKE ANYMORE RAINFALL LEADING TO THE ENHANCED FLASH FLOOD
RISK. THE LINE OF STORMS WILL BE FAST MOVING SO PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE ENDING BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
MOST OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS BEGIN CONVECTION ACROSS THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU AS EARLY AS 7 TO 10 AM TOMORROW. EARLY ON STORMS SHOULD BE
MORE CELLULAR. EVENTUALLY THESE STORMS WILL FORM INTO A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MUCH LIKE WHAT WE SAW COME THROUGH LAST
NIGHT. THIS LINE WOULD APPROACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON TOMORROW. SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE AGAIN IMPRESSIVE
FOR TOMORROW WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR TO SUPPORT NOT ONLY THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...BUT ALSO A FEW ISOLATED TORNADOES. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT THE STORM MODE THAT THE STORMS
TAKE WILL MOST LIKELY DETERMINE THE MAIN THREATS. THE LONGER THE
STORMS STAY CELLULAR THE BETTER THE CHANCES FOR TORNADOES. WITH
MOST MODELS SHOWING A LINEAR SYSTEM COMING ACROSS THE I-35
CORRIDOR THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE STRAIGHTLINE WINDS...SOME
ISOLATED HAIL...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A QLCS TORNADO OR TWO. WE
SAW SEVERAL CIRCULATIONS OR SPIN UPS ALONG THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LAST NIGHT AS IT PROGRESSED ACROSS THE AREA. A STORM
SURVEY TEAM IS CURRENT EN ROUTE TO GO DETERMINE IF THERE WERE ANY
TORNADOES OR IF THE DAMAGE WAS CAUSED BY STAIGHTLINE WINDS. MODELS
HAVE THE LINE OF STORMS THROUGH THE AREA BY 10 PM TO MIDNIGHT
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
IN SUMMARY...QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT...CONVECTION STARTING EARLY
TOMORROW...FLASH FLOOD WATCH STARTING AT 10 AM...CONVECTION
APPROACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH A THREAT
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER...MOVING OUT OF THE
AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
MID WEEK SHOULD SEE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND
EVEN SOME WEAK RIDGING TAKES PLACE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. WHILE THE
PATTERN BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE ANOTHER TROUGH DROPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TRACKING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL UP
RAIN CHANCES AGAIN INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH ALSO DRAGS A
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA. THE WET AND RAINY PATTERN LOOKS TO
CONTINUE. ANOTHER FACTOR THAT MAY PLAY INTO THE WEATHER LATE NEXT
WEEK IS THAT MODELS ARE FORMING A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC
THAT COULD SEND MOISTURE UP OUR DIRECTION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 72 82 69 88 72 / 20 80 40 20 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 72 82 68 87 72 / 20 80 40 20 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 72 83 70 87 73 / 20 80 30 20 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 70 80 67 87 71 / 20 80 30 20 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 70 90 68 93 74 / 20 50 20 10 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 72 80 69 87 72 / 20 80 30 20 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 71 84 70 88 73 / 20 80 30 20 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 73 82 70 87 72 / 20 80 40 20 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 74 82 72 87 74 / 30 80 50 20 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 73 83 72 88 73 / 20 80 30 20 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 73 84 72 88 74 / 20 80 30 20 20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...
BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...FAYETTE...
FRIO...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...
KERR...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...
WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TREADWAY
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33