Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 05/08/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
246 PM PDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SIERRA CREST EARLY THIS
EVENING...DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE DISTRICT TONIGHT. A
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WINTERY WEATHER TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF
THE SIERRA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. DRY WEATHER AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WERE
OBSERVED THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AS A STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER
WASHINGTON AND OREGON CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARD THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...THE SIERRA
NEVADA FOOTHILLS...AND THE DESERT WERE GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO
LOW 80S...A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF MAY.
CLOUDS HAVE FORMED OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE BLOWING FROM
WEST TO EAST...ALL ACTIVITY IS QUICKLY MOVING TO THE EAST OF THE
CREST. THE HIGH RES ARW AND NMM AS WELL AS THE HRRR KEEP ALL
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST OF THE REGION...ADDING
CONFIDENCE THAT THE AREA WILL NOT SEE ANY ACTIVITY THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
BIG CHANGES IN THE WEATHER PATTERN ARE IN STORE FOR THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS COLDER LATE SEASON STORM IMPACTS THE
REGION. THE OPERATIONAL RUNS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE ALL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ABOUT THE TRACK OF AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST HEADING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. BY EARLY
TOMORROW (THURSDAY) MORNING...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OVER THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL SIERRA
NEVADA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE SPREADING SOUTH
IMPACTING THE ENTIRE SIERRA NEVADA BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS. AS
THE CENTER OF THE LOW TRACKS SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION...SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...THE UPPER LOW WILL STALL OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS...INCLUDING THE WEST SIDE OF THE VALLEY AND
THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
SNOW LEVELS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL START AROUND 7,500 FEET LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND FALL TO AROUND 6,000 FEET
BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING AS COLD AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THE UPPER LOW. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE 6,000
FEET BETWEEN THURSDAY LATE MORNING AND FRIDAY EVENING. UP TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED AREAS WITH THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA ABOVE 6,000 FEET.
ADDITIONALLY...AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
STORM...WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. SURFACE CAPE VALUES PEAK BETWEEN 350 AND 800 J/KG
THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION ACCORDING TO THE HIGH RES ARW...THE
NAM...AND THE GFS...ADDING TO FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SIERRA NEVADA...A QUICK FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...EVEN
LOWER THAN THE 6,000 FOOT SNOW LEVELS. THOSE PLANNING A
BACKPACKING OR HIKING TRIP TO THE SIERRA NEVADA SHOULD PLAN
ACCORDINGLY.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE
REGION...LEAVING BEHIND A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SIERRA
NEVADA...WITH DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER.
ANOTHER COOLING TREND WILL BE PRESENT DURING THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW SHIFTS SOUTH SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COASTLINE. THIS STORM IS
FORECAST TO KEEP ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CREST
OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 05-06 100:1987 58:1921 69:1992 41:1975
KFAT 05-07 103:1987 56:1905 69:1989 36:1965
KFAT 05-08 101:2001 59:1977 71:1987 39:1933
KBFL 05-06 104:1987 55:1921 71:1989 42:1988
KBFL 05-07 101:1987 61:1930 70:1989 42:1965
KBFL 05-08 100:1987 63:1933 71:1906 40:1908
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 5 PM PDT FRIDAY
CAZ096-097.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
902 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2015
NOW THAT THE TORNADO THREAT HAS EXITED...TIME TO ISSUE A
WINTER STORM WATCH. WILL PUT OUT FOR THE CONTDVD...SAWATCH
AND MOSQUITO RANGE...TO MATCH EXISTING WATCHES PUT OUT BY
WFOS GJT AND BOU. SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL IN THE
GRIDS...BUT GIVEN THAT THIS IS HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF MAY
IT`S CLOSE TO A LATE SEASON EVENT AND POTENTIAL WARNING SEEMS
JUSTIFIED. ROSE
UPDATE ISSUED AT 539 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2015
UPDATED MAINLY POPS PER CURRENT WSR TRENDS AND LATEST HI RES
GUIDANCE. LOOKS LIKE A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WILL BUILD OVER
THE I-25 CORRIDOR...THEN MOVE E THIS EVENING. EXPECT LOWERING
CIGS OVER THE AREA WITH PRECIP REDEVELOPING OVER NRN I-25
AND THE SRN FRONT RANGE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ROSE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2015
CURRENTLY...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...FAIRLY COLD AIR ALOFT
AND SURFACE CAPES OVER 1000 J/KG HAVE COMBINED TO GENERATE VERY
EFFICIENT HAIL PRODUCING TSRA ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY...WITH 6-8 INCH
DEEP ACCUMULATIONS SLOWING TRAFFIC AND CAUSING DRAINAGE PROBLEMS
OVER THE NORTH SIDE OF COLORADO SPRINGS. TOUGH TO FIND MUCH UPPER
LEVEL FORCING...THOUGH THERE IS A HINT OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS IN THE LATEST WATER VAPOR
LOOP. ELSEWHERE ON THE PLAINS...CAPES RUNNING 1000-1500 J/KG....WITH
BEST INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER WHERE STRATUS CLEARED
FASTEST EARLIER THIS MORNING. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON...SVR TSRA WATCH ISSUED FOR PLAINS ALONG AND EAST OF I-25
WITH MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL...THOUGH ISOLATED CELLS ACROSS LAS
ANIMAS/BACA COUNTIES HAVE SHOWN SOME SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS
WITH A LEAST A LOW THREAT OF A TORNADO.
TONIGHT...TSRA MIGRATE EASTWARD THIS EVENING...WITH LATEST HRRR
KEEPING STRONGEST STORMS ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AND ACROSS LAS
ANIMAS/BACA COUNTIES THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE A LOOSELY ORGANIZED
LINE FORMS NEAR THE KS BORDER LATER IN THE EVENING. HRRR ALSO HINTS
AT A NEW ROUND OF CONVECTION ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR IN PUEBLO/EL
PASO COUNTIES 05Z-06Z AS OUTFLOW ENHANCED UPSLOPE FLOW PUSHES BACK
WESTWARD. OVERALL...WILL KEEP POPS IN PLACE MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
THE NIGHT...HIGHEST CHANCES EL PASO/TELLER COUNTIES.
THURSDAY...STILL A FEW LINGERING -SHRA DURING THE MORNING WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE/UPSLOPE AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION LIFT DEVELOPING OVER
THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BY AFTERNOON...EXPECT WARM FRONT TO LIE
ALONG THE NM BORDER AROUND MIDDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD
THE ARK RIVER BY EVENING. ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...EASTERLY
BL FLOW COMBINED WITH FAIRLY DEEP INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS CAPES RANGE FROM 1-2K
J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR APPROACHES 50 KTS. ELSEWHERE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND HIGH VALLEYS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN AS SCT AFTERNOON
TSRA WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN...WITH HIGHEST POPS GENERALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. MAX TEMPS LITTLE CHANGED WITH
CLOUDS/MOISTURE/PRECIP PERSISTING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2015
THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH ACTIVE WEATHER LOOKING TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS ON THE HIGHER SIDE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH LESS CONFIDENCE EARLY TO MIDDLE NEXT
WEEK.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF WEATHER ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM
SYSTEM AND PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE FOR MOUNTAIN
SNOWFALL...SEVERE WEATHER ON THE PLAINS AND FLOODING POTENTIAL IN
SATURATED AREAS.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE EJECTING AROUND THE LOW ACROSS
COLORADO FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
BE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF A LA JUNTA TO KIM LINE. STRONG WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO
IS POSSIBLE. THESE STORMS WILL SHIFT EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
PLAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AND SMALL HAIL FRIDAY
EVENING. IF A STRONGER STORM CAN IMPACT TELLER AND EL PASO
COUNTIES...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
INTO EASTERN COLORADO ON SATURDAY. SEVERAL CONCERNS AS THE UPPER
SYSTEM EJECTS ACROSS THE AREA...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER...HEAVY RAINFALL WRAPPING AROUND THE
SYSTEM OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND INTO THE RAMPART RANGE AND SNOW
LEVELS. ALL OF THESE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT
STORM PATH. THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE A MORE FAVORABLE SOUTHERN
SOLUTION...WHILE THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY NORTH AND WOULD LIMIT THE
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT IN PARTICULAR. AS FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A DRYLINE DEVELOPING
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND TRACKING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AND STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BECOME
SEVERE. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST OR WEST THE STORMS
DEVELOP. HAVE A FEELING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LIMITED
TO ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER. ELSEWHERE...FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE
LOW WILL PROVIDE STRONG LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE INTO THE RAMPART RANGE. THIS UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG
THE LEE SLOPES OF THE RAMPART RANGE AND PALMER DIVIDE. THESE AREAS
HAVE SEEN HEAVY RAINFALL LATELY AND ARE SATURATED...AND FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ECMWF AND NAM STORM TRACK.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY BE HIGH THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH
SEVERAL INCHES EXPECTED ABOVE 10 KFT.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PULL OFF INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WRAP AROUND FLOW AND SOME MODELS ARE PRODUCING
A TROWAL FEATURE OVER NORTHERN COLORADO KEEPING DECENT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. GFS HAS THIS FEATURE
NORTH...HOWEVER THE ECMWF AND NAM ARE SOUTH AND HAVE THIS FEATURE
IMPACTING THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. COLD AIR WILL BE
FILTERING INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL LIKELY DROP SNOW LEVELS DOWN
TO AROUND 7 KFT SUNDAY MORNING. THIS COULD LEAD TO SNOW ON THE
PALMER DIVIDE AND AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION GRASSY SURFACE.
EXPECT MOST AREAS TO SEE CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE COLD
WRAP AROUND FLOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE SHIFTING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...MOVING OUT IN
THE PLAINS. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY THURSDAY. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 554 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2015
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE 00Z TAFS. STILL EXPECTING LOW CIGS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE ERN CO PLAINS ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...
LASTING THROUGH 15-18Z FRI MORNING. CIGS WILL BE LOWEST...IFR
TO LIFR...AT KCOS WHERE THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH
THE MORNING. CLEARING CONDITIONS SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS FRI AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SVR...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR COZ058-060-061.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
557 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 539 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2015
UPDATED MAINLY POPS PER CURRENT WSR TRENDS AND LATEST HI RES
GUIDANCE. LOOKS LIKE A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WILL BUILD OVER
THE I-25 CORRIDOR...THEN MOVE E THIS EVENING. EXPECT LOWERING
CIGS OVER THE AREA WITH PRECIP REDEVELOPING OVER NRN I-25
AND THE SRN FRONT RANGE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ROSE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2015
CURRENTLY...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...FAIRLY COLD AIR ALOFT
AND SURFACE CAPES OVER 1000 J/KG HAVE COMBINED TO GENERATE VERY
EFFICIENT HAIL PRODUCING TSRA ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY...WITH 6-8 INCH
DEEP ACCUMULATIONS SLOWING TRAFFIC AND CAUSING DRAINAGE PROBLEMS
OVER THE NORTH SIDE OF COLORADO SPRINGS. TOUGH TO FIND MUCH UPPER
LEVEL FORCING...THOUGH THERE IS A HINT OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS IN THE LATEST WATER VAPOR
LOOP. ELSEWHERE ON THE PLAINS...CAPES RUNNING 1000-1500 J/KG....WITH
BEST INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER WHERE STRATUS CLEARED
FASTEST EARLIER THIS MORNING. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON...SVR TSRA WATCH ISSUED FOR PLAINS ALONG AND EAST OF I-25
WITH MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL...THOUGH ISOLATED CELLS ACROSS LAS
ANIMAS/BACA COUNTIES HAVE SHOWN SOME SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS
WITH A LEAST A LOW THREAT OF A TORNADO.
TONIGHT...TSRA MIGRATE EASTWARD THIS EVENING...WITH LATEST HRRR
KEEPING STRONGEST STORMS ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AND ACROSS LAS
ANIMAS/BACA COUNTIES THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE A LOOSELY ORGANIZED
LINE FORMS NEAR THE KS BORDER LATER IN THE EVENING. HRRR ALSO HINTS
AT A NEW ROUND OF CONVECTION ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR IN PUEBLO/EL
PASO COUNTIES 05Z-06Z AS OUTFLOW ENHANCED UPSLOPE FLOW PUSHES BACK
WESTWARD. OVERALL...WILL KEEP POPS IN PLACE MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
THE NIGHT...HIGHEST CHANCES EL PASO/TELLER COUNTIES.
THURSDAY...STILL A FEW LINGERING -SHRA DURING THE MORNING WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE/UPSLOPE AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION LIFT DEVELOPING OVER
THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BY AFTERNOON...EXPECT WARM FRONT TO LIE
ALONG THE NM BORDER AROUND MIDDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD
THE ARK RIVER BY EVENING. ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...EASTERLY
BL FLOW COMBINED WITH FAIRLY DEEP INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS CAPES RANGE FROM 1-2K
J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR APPROACHES 50 KTS. ELSEWHERE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND HIGH VALLEYS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN AS SCT AFTERNOON
TSRA WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN...WITH HIGHEST POPS GENERALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. MAX TEMPS LITTLE CHANGED WITH
CLOUDS/MOISTURE/PRECIP PERSISTING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2015
THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH ACTIVE WEATHER LOOKING TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS ON THE HIGHER SIDE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH LESS CONFIDENCE EARLY TO MIDDLE NEXT
WEEK.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF WEATHER ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM
SYSTEM AND PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE FOR MOUNTAIN
SNOWFALL...SEVERE WEATHER ON THE PLAINS AND FLOODING POTENTIAL IN
SATURATED AREAS.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE EJECTING AROUND THE LOW ACROSS
COLORADO FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
BE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF A LA JUNTA TO KIM LINE. STRONG WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO
IS POSSIBLE. THESE STORMS WILL SHIFT EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
PLAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AND SMALL HAIL FRIDAY
EVENING. IF A STRONGER STORM CAN IMPACT TELLER AND EL PASO
COUNTIES...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
INTO EASTERN COLORADO ON SATURDAY. SEVERAL CONCERNS AS THE UPPER
SYSTEM EJECTS ACROSS THE AREA...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER...HEAVY RAINFALL WRAPPING AROUND THE
SYSTEM OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND INTO THE RAMPART RANGE AND SNOW
LEVELS. ALL OF THESE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT
STORM PATH. THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE A MORE FAVORABLE SOUTHERN
SOLUTION...WHILE THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY NORTH AND WOULD LIMIT THE
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT IN PARTICULAR. AS FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A DRYLINE DEVELOPING
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND TRACKING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AND STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BECOME
SEVERE. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST OR WEST THE STORMS
DEVELOP. HAVE A FEELING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LIMITED
TO ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER. ELSEWHERE...FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE
LOW WILL PROVIDE STRONG LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE INTO THE RAMPART RANGE. THIS UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG
THE LEE SLOPES OF THE RAMPART RANGE AND PALMER DIVIDE. THESE AREAS
HAVE SEEN HEAVY RAINFALL LATELY AND ARE SATURATED...AND FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ECMWF AND NAM STORM TRACK.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY BE HIGH THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH
SEVERAL INCHES EXPECTED ABOVE 10 KFT.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PULL OFF INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WRAP AROUND FLOW AND SOME MODELS ARE PRODUCING
A TROWAL FEATURE OVER NORTHERN COLORADO KEEPING DECENT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. GFS HAS THIS FEATURE
NORTH...HOWEVER THE ECMWF AND NAM ARE SOUTH AND HAVE THIS FEATURE
IMPACTING THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. COLD AIR WILL BE
FILTERING INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL LIKELY DROP SNOW LEVELS DOWN
TO AROUND 7 KFT SUNDAY MORNING. THIS COULD LEAD TO SNOW ON THE
PALMER DIVIDE AND AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION GRASSY SURFACE.
EXPECT MOST AREAS TO SEE CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE COLD
WRAP AROUND FLOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE SHIFTING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...MOVING OUT IN
THE PLAINS. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY THURSDAY. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 554 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2015
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE 00Z TAFS. STILL EXPECTING LOW CIGS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE ERN CO PLAINS ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...
LASTING THROUGH 15-18Z FRI MORNING. CIGS WILL BE LOWEST...IFR
TO LIFR...AT KCOS WHERE THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH
THE MORNING. CLEARING CONDITIONS SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS FRI AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SVR...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
541 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 539 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2015
UPDATED MAINLY POPS PER CURRENT WSR TRENDS AND LATEST HI RES
GUIDANCE. LOOKS LIKE A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WILL BUILD OVER
THE I-25 CORRIDOR...THEN MOVE E THIS EVENING. EXPECT LOWERING
CIGS OVER THE AREA WITH PRECIP REDEVELOPING OVER NRN I-25
AND THE SRN FRONT RANGE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ROSE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2015
CURRENTLY...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...FAIRLY COLD AIR ALOFT
AND SURFACE CAPES OVER 1000 J/KG HAVE COMBINED TO GENERATE VERY
EFFICIENT HAIL PRODUCING TSRA ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY...WITH 6-8 INCH
DEEP ACCUMULATIONS SLOWING TRAFFIC AND CAUSING DRAINAGE PROBLEMS
OVER THE NORTH SIDE OF COLORADO SPRINGS. TOUGH TO FIND MUCH UPPER
LEVEL FORCING...THOUGH THERE IS A HINT OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS IN THE LATEST WATER VAPOR
LOOP. ELSEWHERE ON THE PLAINS...CAPES RUNNING 1000-1500 J/KG....WITH
BEST INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER WHERE STRATUS CLEARED
FASTEST EARLIER THIS MORNING. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON...SVR TSRA WATCH ISSUED FOR PLAINS ALONG AND EAST OF I-25
WITH MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL...THOUGH ISOLATED CELLS ACROSS LAS
ANIMAS/BACA COUNTIES HAVE SHOWN SOME SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS
WITH A LEAST A LOW THREAT OF A TORNADO.
TONIGHT...TSRA MIGRATE EASTWARD THIS EVENING...WITH LATEST HRRR
KEEPING STRONGEST STORMS ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AND ACROSS LAS
ANIMAS/BACA COUNTIES THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE A LOOSELY ORGANIZED
LINE FORMS NEAR THE KS BORDER LATER IN THE EVENING. HRRR ALSO HINTS
AT A NEW ROUND OF CONVECTION ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR IN PUEBLO/EL
PASO COUNTIES 05Z-06Z AS OUTFLOW ENHANCED UPSLOPE FLOW PUSHES BACK
WESTWARD. OVERALL...WILL KEEP POPS IN PLACE MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
THE NIGHT...HIGHEST CHANCES EL PASO/TELLER COUNTIES.
THURSDAY...STILL A FEW LINGERING -SHRA DURING THE MORNING WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE/UPSLOPE AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION LIFT DEVELOPING OVER
THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BY AFTERNOON...EXPECT WARM FRONT TO LIE
ALONG THE NM BORDER AROUND MIDDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD
THE ARK RIVER BY EVENING. ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...EASTERLY
BL FLOW COMBINED WITH FAIRLY DEEP INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS CAPES RANGE FROM 1-2K
J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR APPROACHES 50 KTS. ELSEWHERE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND HIGH VALLEYS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN AS SCT AFTERNOON
TSRA WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN...WITH HIGHEST POPS GENERALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. MAX TEMPS LITTLE CHANGED WITH
CLOUDS/MOISTURE/PRECIP PERSISTING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2015
THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH ACTIVE WEATHER LOOKING TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS ON THE HIGHER SIDE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH LESS CONFIDENCE EARLY TO MIDDLE NEXT
WEEK.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF WEATHER ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM
SYSTEM AND PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE FOR MOUNTAIN
SNOWFALL...SEVERE WEATHER ON THE PLAINS AND FLOODING POTENTIAL IN
SATURATED AREAS.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE EJECTING AROUND THE LOW ACROSS
COLORADO FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
BE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF A LA JUNTA TO KIM LINE. STRONG WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO
IS POSSIBLE. THESE STORMS WILL SHIFT EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
PLAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AND SMALL HAIL FRIDAY
EVENING. IF A STRONGER STORM CAN IMPACT TELLER AND EL PASO
COUNTIES...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
INTO EASTERN COLORADO ON SATURDAY. SEVERAL CONCERNS AS THE UPPER
SYSTEM EJECTS ACROSS THE AREA...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER...HEAVY RAINFALL WRAPPING AROUND THE
SYSTEM OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND INTO THE RAMPART RANGE AND SNOW
LEVELS. ALL OF THESE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT
STORM PATH. THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE A MORE FAVORABLE SOUTHERN
SOLUTION...WHILE THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY NORTH AND WOULD LIMIT THE
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT IN PARTICULAR. AS FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A DRYLINE DEVELOPING
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND TRACKING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AND STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BECOME
SEVERE. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST OR WEST THE STORMS
DEVELOP. HAVE A FEELING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LIMITED
TO ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER. ELSEWHERE...FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE
LOW WILL PROVIDE STRONG LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE INTO THE RAMPART RANGE. THIS UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG
THE LEE SLOPES OF THE RAMPART RANGE AND PALMER DIVIDE. THESE AREAS
HAVE SEEN HEAVY RAINFALL LATELY AND ARE SATURATED...AND FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ECMWF AND NAM STORM TRACK.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY BE HIGH THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH
SEVERAL INCHES EXPECTED ABOVE 10 KFT.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PULL OFF INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WRAP AROUND FLOW AND SOME MODELS ARE PRODUCING
A TROWAL FEATURE OVER NORTHERN COLORADO KEEPING DECENT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. GFS HAS THIS FEATURE
NORTH...HOWEVER THE ECMWF AND NAM ARE SOUTH AND HAVE THIS FEATURE
IMPACTING THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. COLD AIR WILL BE
FILTERING INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL LIKELY DROP SNOW LEVELS DOWN
TO AROUND 7 KFT SUNDAY MORNING. THIS COULD LEAD TO SNOW ON THE
PALMER DIVIDE AND AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION GRASSY SURFACE.
EXPECT MOST AREAS TO SEE CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE COLD
WRAP AROUND FLOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE SHIFTING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...MOVING OUT IN
THE PLAINS. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY THURSDAY. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2015
ISOLD TO SCT TSRA WILL CONTINUE ALL AREAS INTO THE
EVENING...BEST CHANCES AT TAF SITES WILL BE AT KCOS AND KPUB...WITH
STORMS POTENTIALLY PRODUCING LARGE VOLUMES OF HAIL. TS THREAT
GRADUALLY ENDS THIS EVENING...THOUGH SOME -SHRA MAY LINGER PAST 06Z
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SLOSHES BACK WESTWARD OVERNIGHT...EXPECT STRATUS TO
REDEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS WITH IFR CIGS FOR SEVERAL HOURS AROUND
SUNRISE AT KCOS...WHILE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP NEAR KPUB. EXPECT YET MORE
SCT AFTERNOON TSRA ON FRI...WITH A THREAT FOR SEVERE TSRA AT KCOS
AND KPUB AFTER 19Z.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
448 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2015
THE STRONG LOW THAT MOVED OVER THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE MOVING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT.
NW AND CENTRAL CO AND NE UT WILL BE BENEATH THE NW FLOW ALOFT
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE STORM...WHERE UNSTABLE AND MOIST
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. A FEW STORMS HAVE BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
OVER NORTHWEST CO AND NE UT WILL ALSO AS SOME SUPPORT FOR
CONVECTION UNTIL ABOUT 03Z THIS EVENING. SUBSIDENCE AND GRADUALLY
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO EASTER UT...AND NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL
CO AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVER SW CO...THE HRRR AND NAM12 SHOW ANOTHER
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT.
THURSDAY MORNING...IN SOUTH FLOW A WEAK WAVE WORKS THROUGH THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE DIMINISHING THERE
SO ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FORECASTED ACROSS THE SOUTH FAVORING
THE SAN JUANS. DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY
ALONG WITH SOME WEAK FRONTAL FORCING. MARGINAL AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAINLY OVER MTNS
NORTH OF I-70.
TONIGHT DRIER SW FLOW INVADES LIMITING NIGHTTIME SHOWERS TO NEAR
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.
THE NEXT STRONGER PACIFIC LOW SINKS THROUGH CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY
THEN BEGINS TO AMBLE INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2015
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THESE
PERIODS. ONE STRONG UPPER LOW WILL PASS ON SATURDAY BRINGING A
BLAST OF NORTHERN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. TWO OTHER TROUGHS CURRENTLY
ARE TIMED TO PASS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
FRIDAY THE UPPER LOW WITH A MODIFYING BUT IMPRESSIVE -26C COLD
CORE WORKS NORTH OF LAS VEGAS TO SOUTHCENTRAL UTAH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THE THERMAL RIDGE
BLOSSOMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND HAVE RAISED
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE WARMER NAM GUIDANCE. A 70KT JET NOSE
POKES INTO SE UTAH IN THE AFTERNOON AND RAKES THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
COOL ADVECTION ALOFT BEGINS TO DESTABILIZE BUT AVAILABLE MOISTURE
IS LIMITED AND MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
SATURDAY THE POTENTIAL VORTICITY CENTER RAKES THE NORTH AS THE
JET WRAPS UP THE FRONT RANGE. FRONTAL FORCING SEEN IN THE PARK
RANGE BY THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BUT WILL EXTEND INTO THE CENTRAL CO MTNS. SNOW
LEVELS DROP TO AROUND 8KFT...AND WILL BRIEFLY BE LOWER IN
STRONGER CONVECTION. THE LOW LIFTS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WRAP- AROUND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SHOWERS FAVORING THE NORTH. SUNDAY...SNOW LEVELS LOWER
INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEYS WITH 700MB TEMPS AT -4C THERE.
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEKEND FOR THE EASTERN
UINTAS AND THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS FROM WYOMING DOWN INTO THE NW
SAN JUANS. TRAVEL THROUGH THESE MOUNTAINS COULD BE HAZARDOUS THIS
WEEKEND. COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH VALLEY FREEZES ARE POSSIBLE.
MONDAY WARM ADVECTION BEGINS AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
FLOW ALOFT QUICKLY SWITCHES BACK TO SW AND INCREASES INTO THE NEW
WEEK AS THE NEXT TROUGH WORKS INTO THE PACIFIC NW ON TUESDAY AND
THE GREAT BASIN ON WEDNESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED ZONAL JET FROM CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTRUDES INTO THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY BEGINNING THE CHANCE OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 445 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNSET WILL BECOME LIMITED
TO THE MOUNTAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND
ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER. TAF SITES KEGE KASE MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR
CIGS IN -TSRA UNTIL 03Z. SHOWERS BECOME MORE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE
AFT 06Z. AFT 09Z SCT -SHRA ISOLATED -TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER SW
COLORADO. TAF SITES KDRO KTEX MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CIGS IN -SHRA.
AFT 15Z SCT MAINLY MTN -TSRA EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50
CORRIDOR. TAF SITES KASE KEGE MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CIGS IN
-TSRA/-SHRA.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CC/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...JOE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
346 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2015
CURRENTLY...UPPER LOW PUSHING SLOWLY INTO WRN NEB THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE WEAKER SHORT WAVE ENERGY WAS DRIFTING NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM NM. WITH LACK OF MUCH BL/SURFACE WLY FLOW AND
MOIST GROUND...DEWPOINTS HAVE HELD IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND IN THE LOWER 50S FARTHER EAST NEAR THE KS
BORDER. MESO-ANALYSIS SUGGESTS MIXED LAYER CAPES OVER 1000 J/K
ACROSS THE PLAINS ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
SKIES HAVE CLEARED...WITH VALUES 500-1000 J/K FARTHER WEST OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS. STRONGEST STORMS SO FAR TODAY HAVE BEEN OVER
EL PASO COUNTY...THOUGH ADDITIONAL CELLS HAVE BEGUN DEVELOPING
SOUTHWARD ALONG AND WEST OF I-25 AS OF 2030Z.
TONIGHT...LATEST HRRR BRINGS CONVECTION OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS
THE PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS WEAK NM
SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH...WITH PERHAPS A LOOSELY ORGANIZED LINE
DEVELOPING 00Z-01Z AS STORMS REACH THE KS BORDER. SHEAR IS FAIRLY
WEAK...SO EXPECT MAINLY BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WITH CELLS
INTO THE EVENING. NAM/GFS END MOST CONVECTION THIS EVENING...WHILE
HRRR DEVELOPS SOME WEAK SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND EL
PASO COUNTY 06Z-07Z. WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF POPS DURING THE
EVENING...KEEPING SOME LOW CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...WITH A GRADUALLY SHIFT TO N-
NE WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF I-25 BY SUNRISE WED. MAY SEE SOME LOWER
CLOUDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY EARLY WED MORNING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
KS BORDER WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER.
THURSDAY...OLD UPPER TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WHILE NEW UPPER LOW TAKING SHAPE ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. AS A
RESULT...BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
AREA...WHILE SURFACE COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG THE NM
EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD TO SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE
THE ARKANSAS RIVER AND PALMER DIVIDE BY EVENING. BEST BET FOR STORMS
WILL BE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS AND
CAPES CLIMB TOWARD 1000 J/KG. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS FAIRLY LOW AS 0-
6KM SHEAR STAYS BELOW 40 KTS...THOUGH A COUPLE STRONG STORMS WITH
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE LIKELY. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION LOOKS POSSIBLE...THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE
FAIRLY LOW...LIMITING STORM INTENSITY. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL JUST
SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LITTLE CHANGE
ELSEWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2015
...ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY...
.FRIDAY...DISTURBANCE ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER NEVADA AND
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE
REGION. CONCEPTUALLY...THIS PATTERN CAN LEAD TO SEVERE CONVECTIVE
WEATHER ON THE PLAINS. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. NAM HAS MORE COLD AIR OVER THE
REGION...WITH THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINING STABLE. THE GFS HAS THE
UPSLOPE FURTHER NORTH...AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MIXING OUT OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. SUSPECT THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
REGION OF HIGHER CAPE NEAR THE FRONT OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.
CURRENTLY SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK HAS SEVERE CONVECTION STAYING EAST OF
COLORADO. THIS IS A GOOD CALL GIVEN THE CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT WHICH
TENDS TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE STABLE.
.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS COLORADO.
INTERESTING FORECAST FOR BOTH DAYS. ON SATURDAY...THERE WILL BE
NO SHORTAGE OF SHEAR AVAILABLE FOR SEVERE CONVECTIVE WEATHER. NAM
IS FURTHEST SOUTH OF THE UPPER LOW AND IT HAS THE MOST IMPRESSIVE
SHEAR. MAIN CHALLENGE WITH NAM SOLUTION WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A GENERALLY STABLE ATMOSPHERE.
GFS AND EC TEND TO BE FURTHER NORTH...AND ARE PREFERRED. THESE
SOLUTIONS WOULD TEND TO MIX OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER MUCH
OF THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. CURRENT THINKING
IS THE BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE IN
KIOWA AND EL PASO COUNTIES...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FURTHER
SOUTH SOLUTION. ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST...UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. EC AND GFS STILL HINT AT THE TROWAL MAKING INTO EL PASO
AND TELLER COUNTIES. IF THE TROWAL REACHES THIS FAR SOUTH...THEN A
PERIOD OF SNOW WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL OCCUR. LATER IN THE
DAY...THE GFS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT...THE EC HAVE A SECONDARY
DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. BOTH MODELS HAVE
NORTHEAST UPSLOPE DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A
PERIOD OF SNOW...AS SNOW LEVELS AS LOW AS 6000 FEET. GIVEN THIS IS
STILL ON DAY 4...DID NOT HIT THIS SOLUTION HARD IN THE GRIDS.
.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE
NORTHEAST...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY. EC
AND GFS HINT AT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. MODELS CURRENTLY SUGGEST THE BEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION...WITH CONVECTION NOT BEING
VERY STRONG. . --PGW--
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2015
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A VCTS MENTION AT ALL TAF SITES
INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA SHIFTING SOUTH FROM
KCOS TOWARD KPUB 22Z-01Z. TSRA WILL THEN SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE KS
BORDER 01Z-03Z THIS EVENING...THOUGH SOME -SHRA MAY LINGER OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY 03Z-07Z. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG AT KALS ONCE AGAIN AFTER 10Z THU MORNING...THOUGH WON`T
INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS POINT AS MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK MAY HINDER
FORMATION. ON THURSDAY...VFR IN THE MORNING WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
TSRA ONCE AGAIN WITH BEST CHANCE AT KCOS AFTER 18Z.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...PETERSEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
309 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2015
THE STRONG LOW THAT MOVED OVER THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE MOVING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT.
NW AND CENTRAL CO AND NE UT WILL BE BENEATH THE NW FLOW ALOFT
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE STORM...WHERE UNSTABLE AND MOIST
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. A FEW STORMS HAVE BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
OVER NORTHWEST CO AND NE UT WILL ALSO AS SOME SUPPORT FOR
CONVECTION UNTIL ABOUT 03Z THIS EVENING. SUBSIDENCE AND GRADUALLY
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO EASTER UT...AND NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL
CO AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVER SW CO...THE HRRR AND NAM12 SHOW ANOTHER
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT.
THURSDAY MORNING...IN SOUTH FLOW A WEAK WAVE WORKS THROUGH THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE DIMINISHING THERE
SO ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FORECASTED ACROSS THE SOUTH FAVORING
THE SAN JUANS. DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY
ALONG WITH SOME WEAK FRONTAL FORCING. MARGINAL AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAINLY OVER MTNS
NORTH OF I-70.
TONIGHT DRIER SW FLOW INVADES LIMITING NIGHTTIME SHOWERS TO NEAR
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.
THE NEXT STRONGER PACIFIC LOW SINKS THROUGH CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY
THEN BEGINS TO AMBLE INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2015
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THESE
PERIODS. ONE STRONG UPPER LOW WILL PASS ON SATURDAY BRINGING A
BLAST OF NORTHERN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. TWO OTHER TROUGHS CURRENTLY
ARE TIMED TO PASS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
FRIDAY THE UPPER LOW WITH A MODIFYING BUT IMPRESSIVE -26C COLD
CORE WORKS NORTH OF LAS VEGAS TO SOUTHCENTRAL UTAH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THE THERMAL RIDGE
BLOSSOMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND HAVE RAISED
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE WARMER NAM GUIDANCE. A 70KT JET NOSE
POKES INTO SE UTAH IN THE AFTERNOON AND RAKES THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
COOL ADVECTION ALOFT BEGINS TO DESTABILIZE BUT AVAILABLE MOISTURE
IS LIMITED AND MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
SATURDAY THE POTENTIAL VORTICITY CENTER RAKES THE NORTH AS THE
JET WRAPS UP THE FRONT RANGE. FRONTAL FORCING SEEN IN THE PARK
RANGE BY THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BUT WILL EXTEND INTO THE CENTRAL CO MTNS. SNOW
LEVELS DROP TO AROUND 8KFT...AND WILL BRIEFLY BE LOWER IN
STRONGER CONVECTION. THE LOW LIFTS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WRAP- AROUND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SHOWERS FAVORING THE NORTH. SUNDAY...SNOW LEVELS LOWER
INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEYS WITH 700MB TEMPS AT -4C THERE.
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEKEND FOR THE EASTERN
UINTAS AND THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS FROM WYOMING DOWN INTO THE NW
SAN JUANS. TRAVEL THROUGH THESE MOUNTAINS COULD BE HAZARDOUS THIS
WEEKEND. COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH VALLEY FREEZES ARE POSSIBLE.
MONDAY WARM ADVECTION BEGINS AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
FLOW ALOFT QUICKLY SWITCHES BACK TO SW AND INCREASES INTO THE NEW
WEEK AS THE NEXT TROUGH WORKS INTO THE PACIFIC NW ON TUESDAY AND
THE GREAT BASIN ON WEDNESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED ZONAL JET FROM CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTRUDES INTO THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY BEGINNING THE CHANCE OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1055 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP INTO EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO
BEHIND A SYSTEM RETREATING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS IS KEEPING
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS ALONG
WITH OBSCURATION OF MUCH OF THE RIDGELINES AND PEAKS. SUNSHINE
IN EASTERN UTAH HAS HELPED DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO
BEGIN TO PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WILL BECOME MORE
SCATTERED OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING IN PLACE OVER THE MOUNTAIN
FORECAST TERMINALS OF WESTERN COLORADO AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS VFR WILL DOMINATE...BUT MAY TEMPORARILY DROP DOWN TO
MVFR IF A HEAVIER SHOWER IS IN THE VCNTY. DRIER AIR INVADES
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER
VALLEY FOG MAY BECOME MORE OF A PROBLEM AND WILL BE MONITORING
THIS THREAT FOR FUTURE FORECAST ISSUANCES.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CC/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...TGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1149 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 538 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015
DECREASED POPS AT A QUICKER RATE DURING THE EARLY EVENING TIME
PERIOD. SYSTEM IS LIFTING OUT AND PRECIP SHOULD END EARLY THIS
EVENING OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS AS THE WINDS TAKE ON A WESTERLY
COMPONENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015
CURRENTLY...UPPER LOW LIFTING SLOWLY E-NE ALONG THE CO/NM
BORDER...WITH DEEP E-SE FLOW DRIVING WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE AREA. LACK OF INSTABILITY HAS KEPT THUNDERSTORMS TO A
MINIMUM...THOUGH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEGIN TO APPEAR ACROSS
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AS STRONGER CONVECTION ROTATES NORTHWARD OUT OF
NEW MEXICO. RAINFALL RATES SO FAR TODAY HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
MODEST...WITH 0.25-0.50 INCH PER HOUR UNDER THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS...MAINLY A TENTH OF INCH PER HOUR OR LESS UNDER THE LIGHTER
ACTIVITY.
TONIGHT...LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS
ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER AT 21Z WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST AREA OF
ORGANIZED HEAVIER PRECIP THIS EVENING...WITH ACTIVITY LIFTING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD AND WEAKENING AFTER 00Z. STILL A LOW THREAT OF AN ISOLATED
TSRA THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN SECTIONS NEAR THE NM BORDER
WHERE INSTABILITY (CAPES 200-400 J/KG) IS SLIGHTLY DEEPER...BUT
OVERALL...CHANCE OF STRONGER CONVECTION AND EXTREME RAINFALL RATES
APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY LOW...SO WILL LET FLASH FLOOD WATCH END
SLIGHTLY EARLY WITH AFTERNOON FORECAST UPDATE. AS LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE DEVELOPING WESTERLY LOW/MID
LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY BRINGS AN END TO PRECIP OVER THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS AFTER 06Z. WON`T MENTION FOG IN THE
FORECAST AS CLOUDS AND WEAK WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP VISIBILITY
FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH...THOUGH WITH PLENTIFUL RAIN/BL MOISTURE
AREAS OF GROUND FOG LOOK POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY EL PASO COUNTY
WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO TURN W-NW.
WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SWLY
THROUGH THE DAY. MOISTURE DECREASES SOMEWHAT AS WELL...THOUGH WITH
RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WEAK
UPPER WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...AT LEAST SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MANY AREAS.
BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND NORTHERN
AREAS...LESSER POPS FARTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WHERE DRIER AIR
PUNCHES NORTHWARD FROM NM. MAX TEMPS WILL RECOVER ALL AREAS WITH
MORE SUN AND LACK OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...AND A FEW SPOTS ON THE
PLAINS WILL APPROACH 80F...WITH 60S AND 70S ACROSS MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015
...WEATHER PATTERN TO REMAIN ACTIVE FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
AFTER A BRIEF LULL WEDNESDAY...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS...LEADING TO MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY FOR AREAS
ALONG AND NEAR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE PIKES
PEAK REGION...BUT ALSO FOR SPOTS OUT ON THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE
SHEAR VALUES SUCH THAT A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE BECOMES MORE
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE UPSLOPE LOOKS LIKE
IT GETS DEEP ENOUGH TO BRING IN WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS
OF LIGHT PRECIP...BUT POTENTIALLY REDUCES THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
THIS DAY...BY LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF HEATING. SEVERE STORMS
PRESENTLY LOOK LESS LIKELY THIS DAY...BUT THIS IS CONTINGENT ON
HOW DEEP THE UPSLOPE FLOW REALLY TURNS OUT TO BE. COULD STILL HAVE
SOME PROBLEMS ALONG AND NEAR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS
THE PIKES PEAK REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THEN...ON SATURDAY...WE BRING THE NEXT MAJOR NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO. THIS TROUGH LOOKS VIGOROUS...WITH
THE POTENTIAL TO CREATE A LOT OF LIFT...AND GENERATE A LOT OF INTENSE
CONVECTION...IN A STRONGLY SHEARED ATMOSPHERE. PROBLEM IS...NOT
EXACTLY SURE WHAT TRAJECTORY THIS THING IS GOING TO TAKE AS IT
EJECTS NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. THE 12Z GFS AND THE OLD 00Z ECMWF
TRACK IT FARTHER NORTH THAN SOME OF THE 06Z RUNS...GENERALLY
YIELDING LESS SEVERE POTENTIAL. BUT...IF THE 06Z RUNS TURN OUT
TO BE MORE TRUE TO FORM...WATCH OUT. COULD BE BIG SEVERE WEATHER
DAY OVER THE EAST...WITH TORNADO POTENTIAL AS WELL AS HAIL/WIND
POTENTIAL.
THEN...AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY...THINGS SHIFT OVER MORE TOWARD WINTER
WEATHER AS WE GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SATURDAY SYSTEM. COLD AIR
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM COULD BRING SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS...
AND POSSIBLY DOWN TO THE LEVEL OF EL PASO COUNTY. FARTHER EAST...
AWAY FROM THE MOUNTAINS...IT WOULD LIKELY BE JUST SPOTTY LIGHTER
AMOUNTS OF RAIN.
NORTHWEST FLOW COULD BRING MORE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY. AND THEN...BY TUESDAY...IT`S LOOKING LIKE
ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.
A LOT OF WEATHER TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. DETAILS
PRESENTED NOW WILL INEVITABLY CHANGE. PLEASE KEEP CHECKING BACK FOR
LATER UPDATES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED NEXT 24H AT KCOS...KPUB AND
KALS. LOTS OF LLVL MSTR IN ATMOSPHERE TONIGHT BUT WITH WESTERLY
FLOW ABOVE SFC BELIEVE THREAT OF LOW CLOUDS RATHER LOW. CAN`T RULE
OUT SOME GF BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO MENTION. A PASSING LIGHT SHOWER
IS POSSIBLE.
FOR TOMORROW...MAY SEE SOME ISOLD THUNDER PASSING OVERHEAD DURING
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT IT WILL BE HIGH BASED. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO NW TOMORROW EVENING AS A PREFRONTAL TROUGH PASSES THE REGION.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
957 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE TO OUR EAST WILL HEAD FARTHER OUT
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE CAROLINAS THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH ON TUESDAY...AND PASS OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED JUST OFF TO OUR EAST. STRATUS AND
FOG HAS ENCROACHED THE SOUTH SHORE OF WESTERN LONG ISLAND.
MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING HRRR AND NARRE CONTINUE TO
INDICATE STRATUS HUGGING THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND OVERNIGHT.
ALWAYS A CHALLENGE FORECASTING STRATUS AND FOG EXPANSION.
OTHERWISE...THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH
SOME INCREASE OF SFC MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST
PATCHY RADIATION FOG LATE TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT IN
MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER ANY MORNING CSTL FOG OR STRATUS...SUNNY ON FRIDAY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING IN FROM THE WEST. SEA BREEZES LIKELY
DEVELOP AGAIN AS WINDS THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE LIGHT
DURING THE MORNING. MIXING PROFILE LOOKS SIMILAR TO EARLIER
TODAY...BUT TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER. HAVE
GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS FOR SEVERAL AREAS BASED ON
THIS. HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR SEVERAL INLAND LOCATIONS AS WELL AS FOR
PARTS OF THE CITY AND NORTHERN PARTS OF LONG ISLAND. 70S JUST
ABOUT EVERYWHERE ELSE.
BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS FOR STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG
MOVING IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS ADVECT OVER THE
COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. LIFT LOOKS WEAK...SO WILL GO WITH
A DRY FORECAST...BUT PATCHY DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS
WEEKEND WHILE A SURFACE LOW SPINS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. A SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WARM MOIST AIR ACROSS THE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME EXTENSIVE FOG
AND DRIZZLE. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF EACH DAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS FIRST..WITH PLACES ALONG THE COAST HOLDING ON TO THE FOG
LONGER AND POSSIBLY NOT BURNING THRU THE FOG AT ALL.
ON MONDAY...WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING AND THE WARM MOIST AIR
STILL IN PLACE...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY WITH MOISTURE FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE
CAROLINA COAST INCREASING. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY PRODUCE SOME NEEDED
RAINS ON TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT SLY FLOW.
FOG/STRATUS BANK HAS PUSHED ONSHORE THE SOUTH SHORE OF NYC/LONG
ISLAND WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT KJFK. LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD VEER SW
A BIT WHICH COULD PUSH IT A LITTLE EAST. THIS WILL BE WATCHED
CLOSELY THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND FORECASTS FOR KISP AND KJFK MAY
BE BE ALTERED SIGNIFICANTLY. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THESE
LOCATIONS WITH RESPECT TO CIGS/VSBYS. OTHERWISE...SOME GROUND FOG
EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.FRI NGT-TUE...HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
IFR/LIFR CONDS IN FOG AND STRATUS. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FOG AND STRATUS HAS EXPANDED NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTER OCEAN
ZONES...BUT UNSURE HOW MUCH EXPANSION OCCURS OVERNIGHT. MAY NEED A
DENSE FOG ADV FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AND PERHAPS SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
LI. FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.
WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS INTO MON WITH A WEAK SLY FLOW.
AS THE FLOW INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...SEAS INCREASE
TO ABOVE SCA LEVELS TUESDAY AND REMAINING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. SEAS FALL BACK TO BELOW SCA LEVELS ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME ORGANIZED PCPN IS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/FIG
NEAR TERM...JC/PW
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JC/FIG/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/FIG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
827 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE TO OUR EAST WILL HEAD FARTHER OUT
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE CAROLINAS THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH ON TUESDAY...AND PASS OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED JUST OFF TO OUR EAST. LATEST
GUIDANCE INCLUDING HRRR AND NARRE INDICATE STRATUS CURRENTLY
OBSERVED OFF THE NJ COAST EXPANDING NORTHWARD AND SPREADING
ACROSS THE LI COAST. DEW POINTS AT THE BUOYS OBSERVED CLOSE TO
WATER TEMPS...BUT STILL MUCH LOWER OVER LAND. WILL NEED TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THIS POSSIBLE EXPANSION NORTHWARD. OTHERWISE...THE
COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH SOME INCREASE OF
SFC MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST PATCHY RADIATION FOG
LATE TONIGHT.
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT IN
MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SUNNY ON FRIDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING IN FROM THE WEST.
SEA BREEZES LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN AS WINDS THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER
WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE MORNING. MIXING PROFILE LOOKS SIMILAR TO
EARLIER TODAY...BUT TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD BE A LITTLE
WARMER. HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS FOR SEVERAL AREAS
BASED ON THIS. HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR SEVERAL INLAND LOCATIONS AS
WELL AS FOR PARTS OF THE CITY AND NORTHERN PARTS OF LONG ISLAND.
70S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE ELSE.
BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS FOR STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG
MOVING IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS ADVECT OVER THE
COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. LIFT LOOKS WEAK...SO WILL GO WITH
A DRY FORECAST...BUT PATCHY DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS
WEEKEND WHILE A SURFACE LOW SPINS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. A SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WARM MOIST AIR ACROSS THE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME EXTENSIVE FOG
AND DRIZZLE. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF EACH DAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS FIRST..WITH PLACES ALONG THE COAST HOLDING ON TO THE FOG
LONGER AND POSSIBLY NOT BURNING THRU THE FOG AT ALL.
ON MONDAY...WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING AND THE WARM MOIST AIR
STILL IN PLACE...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY WITH MOISTURE FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE
CAROLINA COAST INCREASING. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY PRODUCE SOME NEEDED
RAINS ON TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT SLY FLOW.
LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME GROUND FOG EXPECTED AROUND
SUNRISE...THOUGH NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACT EVEN
IN THE MORE FOG PRONE SATELLITE TERMINALS.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.FRI NGT-TUE...HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
IFR/LIFR CONDS IN FOG AND STRATUS. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEED TO KEEP ON EYE ON FOG OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. WINDS AND
SEAS REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS INTO MON WITH A WEAK SLY FLOW. AS THE
FLOW INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...SEAS INCREASE TO ABOVE
SCA LEVELS TUESDAY AND REMAINING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
SEAS FALL BACK TO BELOW SCA LEVELS ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME ORGANIZED PCPN IS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/FIG
NEAR TERM...JC/PW
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JC/FIG/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/FIG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1030 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO SOUTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR
SUNSHINE WITH ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON EXPECTED TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS INCREASING OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 1030 AM EST...MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY, POPS AND WX WITH THIS
UPDATE LARGELY TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS BOUNDARY, MORNING VISIBLE DEPICTS A
PRETTY WELL- DEFINED GRADIENT IN DIABATIC HEATING ACROSS THE
REGION WITH CLEAR SKIES FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL
DISTRICT REGIONS NORTHWARD, WITH OVERCAST SKIES FROM GREENE AND
COLUMBIA COUNTIES IN NY AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY IN MA
SOUTHWARD. OCCASIONAL VERY LIGHT SHOWERS PER RADAR RETURNS. NO
MAJOR CHANGES TO OVERALL FORECAST THINKING REGARDING THESE
SHOWERS, AS LATEST 3-KM HRRR AND LOCAL WRF OUTPUT SHOWS THESE
SHOWERS PUSHING SOUTHWARD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SKY COVER DIFFERENCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, I
OPTED TO LOWER HIGHS IN THE SCHOHARIE AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEYS
INTO THE LITCHFIELD HILLS OF CT, BLENDING IN SOME OF THE COOLER
SREF MEAN AND MOS GUIDANCE VALUES. WITH THESE CHANGES, HIGHS RANGE
FROM THE LOW-MID 70S FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY AREA INTO SOUTHERN VT,
TO THE MID- UPPER 70S FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD AND MOHAWK VALLEY
NORTHWARD
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER...AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE...AS RIDGING
ESTABLISHES ITSELF ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL OFF FOR
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S IN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS TO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S IN VALLEY AREAS. HOWEVER...WITH
LOTS OF SUN EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...TEMPS WILL QUICKLY WARM THROUGH
THE MORNING...AND LOOK TO REACH AROUND 80 FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON /SOME UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS/.
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE
CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
OCCURRING...WITH UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S ONCE AGAIN.
850 HPA TEMPS WILL RISE TO 12-14 DEGREES C FOR FRIDAY. WITH LOTS
OF SUN CONTINUED TO OCCUR AND RISING HEIGHTS...MAX TEMPS WILL BE
EVEN WARMER. HIGHS LOOK TO REACH LOW TO MID 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS
WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF HUMIDITY AS WELL. THERE MAY BE A MORE
CLOUDS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING...BUT IT
WILL REMAIN DRY. TEMPS ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY FALL TO THE MID
50S TO LOW 60S THANKS TO THE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF HUMIDITY AND THE
MORE CLOUDS AROUND.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD PERSIST INTO MONDAY WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING THE REGION ITS FIRST
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SINCE THE ABOUT APRIL 21ST.
GUIDANCE INDICATES RIDGING SHOULD PERSIST OVER OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH A WEAK LOW MEANDERING AROUND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD FLATTEN WHILE
THE LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WEAKENS AND DRIFTS NORTHWARD. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND POSSIBLY OPENS
AS IT HEADS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE
WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE FLOW ALOFT WILL PARALLEL THE BOUNDARY CAUSING ITS TO
STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. THE LOCAL AREA WILL
REMAIN IN A MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST.
EXPECTING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS WITH THE BETTER CHANCES EXPECTED SUNDAY AS THE BOUNDARY
EDGES CLOSER.
AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES MONDAY
AND SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY RESULTING IN INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND THE GREATER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING 12Z/THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT HAS BECOME STALLED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA AND THE NEW YORK METROPOLITAN AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS RESULTING IN SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER THE LIKELIHOOD ANY SHOWERS
WILL IMPACT KPOU IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. OTHERWISE
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION
DECREASING AFTER SUNRISE. A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING ANY CUMULUS CLOUDS
WILL DISSIPATE AND THERE WILL BE CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS AREA EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...
THU-FRI-NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RH VALUES EACH AFTERNOON FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE REGION IS DRY...THERE ARE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...INCLUDING THE AREA
NEAR THE ROOSA GAP FIRE IN EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN ULSTER COUNTY. ANY
PRECIP LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT. THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL END
BY LATER THIS MORNING...WITH CLOUDS BREAKING FOR SUNSHINE OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH S-SW WINDS AT 5 MPH OR LESS.
RH VALUES SHOULD RECOVER NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION. DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN
DROP TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT...GENERALLY S TO SW AT 5
TO 10 MPH.
WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...RH VALUES LOOK TO ONLY DROP
TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT ON FRIDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ASIDE FROM A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS EARLY THIS
MORNING...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. TOTAL QPF OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THIS WEEKEND. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION AT ALL.
AS A RESULT...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL EITHER HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY
RECEDE THROUGH THE WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
650 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO
SOUTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR
SUNSHINE WITH ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON EXPECTED TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS INCREASING OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 640 AM EST...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AND NEARLY
STATIONARY BOUNDARY SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER PA AND
NJ. A DISTURBANCE IN THE MID LEVELS MOVING ALONG THIS SFC BOUNDARY
IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. KENX RADAR SHOWS THIS
ACTIVITY CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE CATSKILLS AND THROUGH
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. RAINFALL HAS BEEN FAIRLY LIGHT
IN INTENSITY SO FAR...AND IS HAVING A TOUGH TIME REACHING THE
GROUND IN SOME AREAS THANKS TO THE DRY LOW LEVELS. ANY AREAS THAT
DO SEE RAINFALL WILL ONLY PICK UP A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. THE
LATEST 3KM HRRR SHOWS THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD.
ANY SHOWERS SHOULD END BY ABOUT MID MORNING OR SO...AS THE WEAK
DISTURBANCE STARTS TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER FOR THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA. SKIES ARE ALREADY CLEARING OUT FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION ON NORTHWARD. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY TODAY. MOST AREAS LOOK TO BE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE AREA...INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BE
LOWER...SO MIXING WON/T BE QUITE AS DEEP AS RECENT DAYS.
STILL...TEMPS ALOFT ARE FAIRLY WARM...SO ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL DAY
CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER...AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE...AS RIDGING
ESTABLISHES ITSELF ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL OFF FOR
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S IN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS TO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S IN VALLEY AREAS. HOWEVER...WITH
LOTS OF SUN EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...TEMPS WILL QUICKLY WARM THROUGH
THE MORNING...AND LOOK TO REACH AROUND 80 FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON /SOME UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS/.
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE
CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
OCCURRING...WITH UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S ONCE AGAIN.
850 HPA TEMPS WILL RISE TO 12-14 DEGREES C FOR FRIDAY. WITH LOTS
OF SUN CONTINUED TO OCCUR AND RISING HEIGHTS...MAX TEMPS WILL BE
EVEN WARMER. HIGHS LOOK TO REACH LOW TO MID 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS
WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF HUMIDITY AS WELL. THERE MAY BE A MORE
CLOUDS BY FRIDAY AFTN WITH SOME DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING...BUT IT
WILL REMAIN DRY. TEMPS ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY FALL TO THE MID
50S TO LOW 60S THANKS TO THE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF HUMIDITY AND THE
MORE CLOUDS AROUND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD PERSIST INTO MONDAY WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING THE REGION ITS FIRST
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SINCE THE ABOUT APRIL 21ST.
GUIDANCE INDICATES RIDGING SHOULD PERSIST OVER OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH A WEAK LOW MEANDERING AROUND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD FLATTEN WHILE
THE LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WEAKENS AND DRIFTS NORTHWARD. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND POSSIBLY OPENS
AS IT HEADS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE
WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE FLOW ALOFT WILL PARALLEL THE BOUNDARY CAUSING ITS TO
STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. THE LOCAL AREA WILL
REMAIN IN A MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST.
EXPECTING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS WITH THE BETTER CHANCES EXPECTED SUNDAY AS THE BOUNDARY
EDGES CLOSER.
AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES MONDAY
AND SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY RESULTING IN INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND THE GREATER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING 12Z/THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT HAS BECOME STALLED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA AND THE NEW YORK METROPOLITAN AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS RESULTING IN SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER THE LIKELIHOOD ANY SHOWERS
WILL IMPACT KPOU IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. OTHERWISE
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION
DECREASING AFTER SUNRISE. A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING ANY CUMULUS CLOUDS
WILL DISSIPATE AND THERE WILL BE CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS AREA EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...
THU-FRI-NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
...LOW RH VALUES EACH AFTERNOON FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE REGION IS DRY...THERE ARE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...INCLUDING THE AREA
NEAR THE ROOSA GAP FIRE IN EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN ULSTER COUNTY. ANY
PRECIP LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT. THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL END
BY LATER THIS MORNING...WITH CLOUDS BREAKING FOR SUNSHINE OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH S-SW WINDS AT 5 MPH OR LESS.
RH VALUES SHOULD RECOVER NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION. DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN
DROP TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT...GENERALLY S TO SW AT 5
TO 10 MPH.
WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...RH VALUES LOOK TO ONLY DROP
TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT ON FRIDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ASIDE FROM A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS EARLY THIS
MORNING...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. TOTAL QPF OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THIS WEEKEND. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION AT ALL.
AS A RESULT...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL EITHER HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY
RECEDE THROUGH THE WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
640 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO
SOUTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR
SUNSHINE WITH ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON EXPECTED TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS INCREASING OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 640 AM EST...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AND NEARLY
STATIONARY BOUNDARY SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER PA AND
NJ. A DISTURBANCE IN THE MID LEVELS MOVING ALONG THIS SFC BOUNDARY
IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. KENX RADAR SHOWS THIS
ACTIVITY CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE CATSKILLS AND THROUGH
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. RAINFALL HAS BEEN FAIRLY LIGHT
IN INTENSITY SO FAR...AND IS HAVING A TOUGH TIME REACHING THE
GROUND IN SOME AREAS THANKS TO THE DRY LOW LEVELS. ANY AREAS THAT
DO SEE RAINFALL WILL ONLY PICK UP A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. THE
LATEST 3KM HRRR SHOWS THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD.
ANY SHOWERS SHOULD END BY ABOUT MID MORNING OR SO...AS THE WEAK
DISTURBANCE STARTS TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER FOR THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA. SKIES ARE ALREADY CLEARING OUT FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION ON NORTHWARD. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY TODAY. MOST AREAS LOOK TO BE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE AREA...INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BE
LOWER...SO MIXING WON/T BE QUITE AS DEEP AS RECENT DAYS.
STILL...TEMPS ALOFT ARE FAIRLY WARM...SO ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL DAY
CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER...AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE...AS RIDGING
ESTABLISHES ITSELF ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL OFF FOR
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S IN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS TO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S IN VALLEY AREAS. HOWEVER...WITH
LOTS OF SUN EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...TEMPS WILL QUICKLY WARM THROUGH
THE MORNING...AND LOOK TO REACH AROUND 80 FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON /SOME UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS/.
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE
CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
OCCURRING...WITH UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S ONCE AGAIN.
850 HPA TEMPS WILL RISE TO 12-14 DEGREES C FOR FRIDAY. WITH LOTS
OF SUN CONTINUED TO OCCUR AND RISING HEIGHTS...MAX TEMPS WILL BE
EVEN WARMER. HIGHS LOOK TO REACH LOW TO MID 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS
WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF HUMIDITY AS WELL. THERE MAY BE A MORE
CLOUDS BY FRIDAY AFTN WITH SOME DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING...BUT IT
WILL REMAIN DRY. TEMPS ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY FALL TO THE MID
50S TO LOW 60S THANKS TO THE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF HUMIDITY AND THE
MORE CLOUDS AROUND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD PERSIST INTO MONDAY WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING THE REGION ITS FIRST
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SINCE THE ABOUT APRIL 21ST.
GUIDANCE INDICATES RIDGING SHOULD PERSIST OVER OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH A WEAK LOW MEANDERING AROUND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD FLATTEN WHILE
THE LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WEAKENS AND DRIFTS NORTHWARD. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND POSSIBLY OPENS
AS IT HEADS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE
WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE FLOW ALOFT WILL PARALLEL THE BOUNDARY CAUSING ITS TO
STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. THE LOCAL AREA WILL
REMAIN IN A MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST.
EXPECTING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS WITH THE BETTER CHANCES EXPECTED SUNDAY AS THE BOUNDARY
EDGES CLOSER.
AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES MONDAY
AND SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY RESULTING IN INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND THE GREATER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING 06Z/THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT HAS BECOME STALLED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA AND THE NEW YORK METROPOLITAN AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS RESULTING IN SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER THE LIKELIHOOD ANY SHOWERS
WILL IMPACT KPOU IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. OTHERWISE MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION DECREASING
AFTER SUNRISE. A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING ANY CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE
AND CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NIGHT.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS AREA EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...
THU-FRI-NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUN NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
...LOW RH VALUES EACH AFTERNOON FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE REGION IS DRY...THERE ARE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...INCLUDING THE AREA
NEAR THE ROOSA GAP FIRE IN EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN ULSTER COUNTY. ANY
PRECIP LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT. THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL END
BY LATER THIS MORNING...WITH CLOUDS BREAKING FOR SUNSHINE OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH S-SW WINDS AT 5 MPH OR LESS.
RH VALUES SHOULD RECOVER NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION. DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN
DROP TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT...GENERALLY S TO SW AT 5
TO 10 MPH.
WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...RH VALUES LOOK TO ONLY DROP
TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT ON FRIDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ASIDE FROM A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS EARLY THIS
MORNING...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. TOTAL QPF OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THIS WEEKEND. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION AT ALL.
AS A RESULT...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL EITHER HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY
RECEDE THROUGH THE WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
449 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO
SOUTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR
SUNSHINE WITH ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON EXPECTED TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS INCREASING OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 449 AM EST...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK NEARLY
STATIONARY BOUNDARY SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER PA AND
NJ. A DISTURBANCE IN THE MID LEVELS MOVING ALONG THIS SFC BOUNDARY
IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF
UPSTATE NY...AS SEEN IN THE LATEST KENX RADAR IMAGERY. THESE
SHOWERS ARE MOVING EASTWARD...AND ARE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND INTO NW CT. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
MOHAWK VALLEY ON SOUTHWARD...THANKS TO THE PROXIMITY OF THIS
BOUNDARY AND SHOWER ACTIVITY. SHOWERS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT...AND
PRODUCING ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL AT MOST.
THE LATEST 3KM HRRR SHOWS THE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD END BY ABOUT MID MORNING OR SO...AS
THE WEAK DISTURBANCE STARTS TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY TODAY. MOST AREAS LOOK TO BE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE AREA...INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BE
LOWER...SO MIXING WON/T BE QUITE AS DEEP AS RECENT DAYS.
STILL...TEMPS ALOFT ARE FAIRLY WARM...SO ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL DAY
CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER...AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE...AS RIDGING
ESTABLISHES ITSELF ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL OFF FOR
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S IN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS TO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S IN VALLEY AREAS. HOWEVER...WITH
LOTS OF SUN EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...TEMPS WILL QUICKLY WARM THROUGH
THE MORNING...AND LOOK TO REACH AROUND 80 FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON /SOME UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS/.
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE
CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
OCCURRING...WITH UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S ONCE AGAIN.
850 HPA TEMPS WILL RISE TO 12-14 DEGREES C FOR FRIDAY. WITH LOTS
OF SUN CONTINUED TO OCCUR AND RISING HEIGHTS...MAX TEMPS WILL BE
EVEN WARMER. HIGHS LOOK TO REACH LOW TO MID 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS
WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF HUMIDITY AS WELL. THERE MAY BE A MORE
CLOUDS BY FRIDAY AFTN WITH SOME DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING...BUT IT
WILL REMAIN DRY. TEMPS ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY FALL TO THE MID
50S TO LOW 60S THANKS TO THE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF HUMIDITY AND THE
MORE CLOUDS AROUND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD PERSIST INTO MONDAY WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING THE REGION ITS FIRST
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SINCE THE ABOUT APRIL 21ST.
GUIDANCE INDICATES RIDGING SHOULD PERSIST OVER OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH A WEAK LOW MEANDERING AROUND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD FLATTEN WHILE
THE LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WEAKENS AND DRIFTS NORTHWARD. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND POSSIBLY OPENS
AS IT HEADS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE
WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE FLOW ALOFT WILL PARALLEL THE BOUNDARY CAUSING ITS TO
STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. THE LOCAL AREA WILL
REMAIN IN A MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST.
EXPECTING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS WITH THE BETTER CHANCES EXPECTED SUNDAY AS THE BOUNDARY
EDGES CLOSER.
AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES MONDAY
AND SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY RESULTING IN INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND THE GREATER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING 06Z/THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT HAS BECOME STALLED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA AND THE NEW YORK METROPOLITAN AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS RESULTING IN SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER THE LIKELIHOOD ANY SHOWERS
WILL IMPACT KPOU IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. OTHERWISE MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION DECREASING
AFTER SUNRISE. A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING ANY CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE
AND CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NIGHT.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS AREA EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...
THU-FRI-NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUN NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
...LOW RH VALUES EACH AFTERNOON FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE REGION IS DRY...THERE ARE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...INCLUDING THE AREA
NEAR THE ROOSA GAP FIRE IN EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN ULSTER COUNTY. ANY
PRECIP LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT. THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL END
BY LATER THIS MORNING...WITH CLOUDS BREAKING FOR SUNSHINE OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH S-SW WINDS AT 5 MPH OR LESS.
RH VALUES SHOULD RECOVER NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION. DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN
DROP TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT...GENERALLY S TO SW AT 5
TO 10 MPH.
WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...RH VALUES LOOK TO ONLY DROP
TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT ON FRIDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ASIDE FROM A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS EARLY THIS
MORNING...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. TOTAL QPF OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THIS WEEKEND. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION AT ALL.
AS A RESULT...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL EITHER HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY
RECEDE THROUGH THE WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
152 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO
SOUTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR
SUNSHINE WITH ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON EXPECTED TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS INCREASING OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 152 AM...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY IS PRODUCING SOME RAIN SHOWERS...WHICH ARE CURRENTLY OVER
CENTRAL NY AND NE PA. AS THESE SHOWERS SLIDE TO THE E-SE...THEY
WILL CLIP THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE 3KM HRRR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY TO BE
FAIRY LIGHT IN INTENSITY...AND MOST AREAS MAY NOT WIND UP SEEING
MUCH MEASURABLE PRECIP. STILL...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
FURTHER NORTH...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
A BAND OF CLOUDS SINKING SOUTHWARD...SO SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS FOR AREAS FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION ON NORTHWARD. FURTHER SOUTH...PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD REMAIN THANKS TO THE NEARBY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND UPSTREAM PRECIP EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION.
LOW TEMPS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO
THE MID 50S IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
OTHER THAN CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...DRY CONDITIONS AND DECREASING CLOUDS WILL RESULT
IN A RATHER PLEASANT MAY AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOST
AREAS WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. IT WILL TAKE LONGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHERN AREAS TO WARM DUE TO EARLY CLOUD COVER.
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST FROM THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS AN EXPANSIVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES FOR THURSDAY AS
TEMPS ALOFT INCREASE...SO MOST AREAS SHOULD HAVE HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO NEAR 80. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL INITIALLY BE COOL AND SEASONABLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES WARMER
THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE WHICH WILL
NOT ALLOW FOR COOLING TO BE AS EFFICIENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPS BEGIN
TO COOL OFF EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SURFACE LOW HEADS TOWARDS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY TUESDAY...AND MAY BRING THE REGION THE
FIRST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT SINCE THE ABOUT THE 21ST OF APRIL.
ON FRIDAY THE REGION WILL STILL BE DOMINATED BY RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT...AND DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
DURING THE WEEKEND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRY TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION...BUT WILL LIKELY BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS NORTHERN NY
AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN A
MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST DURING
THE WEEKEND. HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT DURING THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THERE MAY ALSO BE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTN/EVE HOURS AS WELL. THE HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS
SUNDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING
DURING THE WEEKEND...RISING TO AROUND 60 IN SOME AREAS BY SUNDAY...
WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL HUMID FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE LAST SUMMER.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY
AND HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 35 TO 45 PERCENT...RISING TO 50 TO 60
PERCENT BY TUESDAY AS THE LOW HEADS DOWN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
DUE TO MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS...IT WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE 70 TO 80. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING 06Z/THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT HAS BECOME STALLED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA AND THE NEW YORK METROPOLITAN AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS RESULTING IN SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER THE LIKELIHOOD ANY SHOWERS
WILL IMPACT KPOU IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. OTHERWISE MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION DECREASING
AFTER SUNRISE. A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING ANY CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE
AND CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NIGHT.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS AREA EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...
THU-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY...
...HIGH HAINES INDEX VALUES OF 5 TO 6 EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL /GREATER THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH/ HAS NOT
OCCURRED IN WELL OVER A WEEK ACROSS THE REGION AND STATE OFFICIALS
HAVE NOTED THAT FOREST FUELS ARE RATHER DRY AT THIS TIME.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD INTO OUR
REGION TONIGHT...WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. A DISTURBANCE TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE CATSKILLS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...AS A LARGE
RIDGE OF HIGH BUILDS IN AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
WETTING RAINFALL IS NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR UNTIL AT LEAST THE WEEKEND
WHEN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. UNTIL
THEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 60 TO 90 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO VERY LOW VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT ON
WEDNESDAY. RH WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 70 AND 95 PERCENT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS TONIGHT
WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS...BECOMING VARIABLE ON
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 5 MPH
OR LESS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION.
MOST AREAS WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...EXCEPT FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...SUCH AS THE SOUTHEASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT...WHERE ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO PERHAPS A TENTH OF AN INCH MAY FALL.
AS A RESULT...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL EITHER HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY
RECEDE THROUGH THE WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
921 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
WITH A SECONDARY AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES ON FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE. FOR
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK, A COLD FRONT WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED
STATES AS THE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE WEAKENS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WE DID SOME TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS AS THEY WERE FALLING FASTER
THAN ANTICIPATED TOWARD THE COAST. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AND HEADLINES REMAINED THE SAME.
THE TRAFFIC CAMS ARE SHOWING THE DENSER FOG BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP FROM ACY SOUTH, SO WE WENT
AHEAD AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS EFFECTIVE
IMMEDIATELY.
THEN WE USED THE MORE CONSERVATIVE NARRE AS A STARTING POINT AS TO
HOW FAR WESTWARD/SOUTHWESTWARD TO ANTICIPATE DENSE FOG FORMING
OVERNIGHT. THE SPLIT IN MODELS CONTINUES WITH THE HRRR REMAINING
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING DENSE FOG NEARLY TO PHILADELPHIA
AND THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW JERSEY AND MOST OF
DELMARVA. GIVEN THE RECENT DRY WEATHER AND HOW TODAY INLAND WAS
WARMER THAN STAT GUIDANCE, NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO THAT WAY. WE
DID EXTEND THE MENTION OF SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG TO PARTS OF THESE
AREAS NEAR THE DELAWARE BAY AND RIVER.
FAIR WEATHER TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OFFSHORE. PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT MOST AREAS...PERHAPS NOT AS MUCH
FAR NORTH. MORE WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE SRN NJ/DELMARVA.
LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S MOST AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME FOG
AROUND EARLY...BUT THE SUN WILL QUICKLY BURN THINGS OFF BY AROUND 8
AM OR SO. ITS POSSIBLE THAT SOME FOG MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
COAST...LIKE TODAY. HIGH TEMPS FRI WILL RISE INT THE UPPER 70S/LOW
80S MOST AREAS...COOLER NEAR THE SHORE. WINDS SHOULD MOSTLY S OR SW
AT 5 TO 10 MPH DURING THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL MODELS
WITH THE GENERAL OVERALL PATTERN IN ALL PERIODS. THE MAIN
DISCREPANCY IS THE ECMWF AND THE ECMWF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE LOOK TO
COOL IN THE THREE TO FIVE DAY, WHILE THE GFS IS PERHAPS A TAD TO
WARM. ANY TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
CAROLINAS MAY LEAD TO HIGHER RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANY
OTHER IMPACTS TO DAILY WEATHER VERY LIMITED. DETAILS BELOW...
THIS WEEKEND: WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO OUR NORTHEAST AND A LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN
PLACE. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE EACH DAY ALONG WITH RISING
925 MB TEMPERATURES AS A WARMER AIRMASS IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION.
MANY LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO GET INTO THE LOW/MID 80`S ON AVERAGE
AFTER STARTING OUT IN THE UPPER 50`S/LOW 60`S. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW IS
LIKELY TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST COOLER. WITH THE LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SOME MORNING FOG EACH DAY COULD OCCUR. ALSO THE
INCREASED INSTABILITY AND HUMIDITY MAY LEAD TO AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM. NO TRIGGER IN THIS PERIOD FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED TO
PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS, GOING SLIGHT CHANCE ATTM.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY
TUESDAY ALONG WITH MOISTURE INCREASING FROM A DECAYING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NEAR OR NORTH OF THE CAROLINAS. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT MAY PRODUCE SOME NEEDED RAINS. ENOUGH SEPARATION WITH THESE
FEATURES WILL LIMIT THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN THREAT BUT SOME
LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT
WINDS MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF PATCHY FOG. RISING 925 MB
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 20C SHOULD ALLOW INLAND AREAS TO RUN WELL
ABOVE CURRENT NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 80`S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH MORNING IN THE LOW TO MID
60`S. IN TERMS OF ANY SEVERE THREAT WITH THE FRONT, THIS LOOKS
LIMITED AS THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE NORTHWEST OF THE MORE
FAVORABLE INSTABILITY ATTM. AREAS THAT DO NOT SEE THE SCATTERED
STORMS WILL SLIP CLOSER TO DROUGHT CONDITIONS AS SHORT TERM DEFICITS
WITH RAINFALL CONTINUE TO GROW.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS.
GOING WITH A LARGER TEMPERATURE SPREAD THAN THE MODELED TWO METER
VALUES. CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE MAY STILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS INTO THE
70`S AFTER CHILLIER STARTS IN THE 40`S/50`S. THE MAIN CONCERN MAY
END UP BEING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FIRE SPREAD. RH VALUES AROUND
35% EACH AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
00Z TAFS, HIGHEST CONFIDENCE NORTHWEST AIRPORTS, LOW CONFIDENCE
ABOUT ADVECTION OF FOG BANK INLAND AFFECTING KPHL AND SE AIRPORTS.
WE LEANED TOWARD THE MORE PESSIMISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS AND SLOWED
THEIR TIMING OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.
THIS EVENING...KPHL METRO AIRPORTS TERMINALS AND TERMINALS
AND AIRPORTS TO THE NORTHWEST VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHTER AND NO CIGS. KMIV AND KACY AND SE COASTAL
AIRPORTS FORECASTING FOG BANK TO START MOVING INLAND WITH IFR
CONDITIONS ALREADY AT KACY AND MVFR, MAYBE IFR CONDITIONS AT
KMIV. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS.
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING AT LEAST MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS DUE TO FOG TO
ALL TERMINALS. KPHL METRO AIRPORTS MAY BE NEAR THE EDGE OF IFR
CONDITIONS AS IT TRIES TO SPREAD UP DELAWARE BAY AND THE DELAWARE
RIVER OVERNIGHT. SO CONFIDENCE AS TO EXTENT IS LOW. WE BRING KMIV
AND KACY TO LIFR CONDITIONS BY MORNING AND ALSO INCLUDE A CIG. NO
CIG ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE WITH LIGHT OR CALM WINDS.
FRIDAY MORNING...ALL TERMINALS GO VFR, KACY EXPECTED TO GO LAST.
WINDS BECOME SOUTH AT AROUND 5 MPH AND HIGH BASED CU (5K-6K)
STARTS TO FORM.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON... A VFR CU BASED CIG POSSIBLE AT TIMES NORTHWEST
AIRPORTS/TERMINALS WITH NO CIG FORECAST ELSEWHERE. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BECOME STRONGER, CLOSER TO 10 KNOTS. IT
DOES NOT APPEAR THAT A SEA BREEZE FRONT WILL FORM, MORE OF A
GENERAL SYNOPTIC SCALE WIND AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: VFR WITH SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS UNDER
10 KNOTS. SOME MORNING PATCHY LOW FOG POSSIBLE, BEST CHANCES AT
RDG, ACY AND MIV.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY: VFR THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS PERIOD. SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING EACH DAY LEADING TO MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. SOUTHEAST
WIND GUSTS UNDER 15 KNOTS ON MONDAY AND THEN SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS
AROUND OR UNDER 20 KNOTS ON TUESDAY. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE 12Z.
&&
.MARINE...
AFTER COORDINATING WITH THE DAY SHIFT, WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR OUR AREA WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
SOME OF THE TRAFFIC CAMS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST LOOKED VERY
FOGGY. LATEST SREF/NARRE AND HRRR GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING THAT THE
FOG SHOULD CONTINUE AND SPREAD THROUGH THE NIGHT. NOT A CONFIDENT
FORECAST OFF OF MONMOUTH AND IN UPPER DELAWARE BAY AND TIMING
MIGHT HAVE TO BE EXTENDED ON FRIDAY AS FLOW REMAINS WEAK AND DEW
POINTS ABOVE WATER TEMPS.
SUB SCA CONDITIONS WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THERE IS
SOME FOG ACROSS SE NJ/DEL COASTAL AREAS AND INTO SRN DEL BAY AND
EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON...IT CONTINUES . IT WILL PROBABLY REMAIN INTO
THE EVENING AND PERHAPS BECOME A BIT MORE CONCENTRATED OVERNIGHT. VERY
LIGHT ONSHORE OR UP THE BAY FLOW INTO EARLY TONIGHT THEN
LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SEAS AND WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY
WITH SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MONDAY THEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNDER 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UNDER 20
KNOTS, HIGHEST ON TUESDAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ021>023-026.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ024-025.
DE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR DEZ002-003.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR DEZ004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...GIGI/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/GIGI
MARINE...GAINES/GIGI/O`HARA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
818 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
WITH A SECONDARY AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES ON FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE. FOR
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK, A COLD FRONT WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED
STATES AS THE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE WEAKENS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE TRAFFIC CAMS ARE SHOWING THE DENSER FOG BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP FROM ACY SOUTH, SO WE WENT
AHEAD AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS EFFECTIVE
IMMEDIATELY.
THEN WE USED THE MORE CONSERVATIVE NARRE AS A STARTING POINT AS TO
HOW FAR WESTWARD/SOUTHWESTWARD TO ANTICIPATE DENSE FOG FORMING
OVERNIGHT. THE SPLIT IN MODELS CONTINUES WITH THE HRRR REMAINING
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING DENSE FOG NEARLY TO PHILADELPHIA
AND THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW JERSEY AND MOST OF
DELMARVA. GIVEN THE RECENT DRY WEATHER AND HOW TODAY INLAND WAS
WARMER THAN STAT GUIDANCE, NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO THAT WAY. WE
DID EXTEND THE MENTION OF SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG TO PARTS OF THESE
AREAS NEAR THE DELAWARE BAY AND RIVER.
FAIR WEATHER TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OFFSHORE. PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT MOST AREAS...PERHAPS NOT AS MUCH
FAR NORTH. MORE WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE SRN NJ/DELMARVA.
LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S MOST AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME FOG
AROUND EARLY...BUT THE SUN WILL QUICKLY BURN THINGS OFF BY AROUND 8
AM OR SO. ITS POSSIBLE THAT SOME FOG MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
COAST...LIKE TODAY. HIGH TEMPS FRI WILL RISE INT THE UPPER 70S/LOW
80S MOST AREAS...COOLER NEAR THE SHORE. WINDS SHOULD MOSTLY S OR SW
AT 5 TO 10 MPH DURING THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL MODELS
WITH THE GENERAL OVERALL PATTERN IN ALL PERIODS. THE MAIN
DISCREPANCY IS THE ECMWF AND THE ECMWF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE LOOK TO
COOL IN THE THREE TO FIVE DAY, WHILE THE GFS IS PERHAPS A TAD TO
WARM. ANY TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
CAROLINAS MAY LEAD TO HIGHER RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANY
OTHER IMPACTS TO DAILY WEATHER VERY LIMITED. DETAILS BELOW...
THIS WEEKEND: WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO OUR NORTHEAST AND A LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN
PLACE. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE EACH DAY ALONG WITH RISING
925 MB TEMPERATURES AS A WARMER AIRMASS IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION.
MANY LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO GET INTO THE LOW/MID 80`S ON AVERAGE
AFTER STARTING OUT IN THE UPPER 50`S/LOW 60`S. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW IS
LIKELY TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST COOLER. WITH THE LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SOME MORNING FOG EACH DAY COULD OCCUR. ALSO THE
INCREASED INSTABILITY AND HUMIDITY MAY LEAD TO AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM. NO TRIGGER IN THIS PERIOD FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED TO
PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS, GOING SLIGHT CHANCE ATTM.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY
TUESDAY ALONG WITH MOISTURE INCREASING FROM A DECAYING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NEAR OR NORTH OF THE CAROLINAS. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT MAY PRODUCE SOME NEEDED RAINS. ENOUGH SEPARATION WITH THESE
FEATURES WILL LIMIT THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN THREAT BUT SOME
LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT
WINDS MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF PATCHY FOG. RISING 925 MB
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 20C SHOULD ALLOW INLAND AREAS TO RUN WELL
ABOVE CURRENT NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 80`S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH MORNING IN THE LOW TO MID
60`S. IN TERMS OF ANY SEVERE THREAT WITH THE FRONT, THIS LOOKS
LIMITED AS THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE NORTHWEST OF THE MORE
FAVORABLE INSTABILITY ATTM. AREAS THAT DO NOT SEE THE SCATTERED
STORMS WILL SLIP CLOSER TO DROUGHT CONDITIONS AS SHORT TERM DEFICITS
WITH RAINFALL CONTINUE TO GROW.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS.
GOING WITH A LARGER TEMPERATURE SPREAD THAN THE MODELED TWO METER
VALUES. CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE MAY STILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS INTO THE
70`S AFTER CHILLIER STARTS IN THE 40`S/50`S. THE MAIN CONCERN MAY
END UP BEING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FIRE SPREAD. RH VALUES AROUND
35% EACH AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
00Z TAFS, HIGHEST CONFIDENCE NORTHWEST AIRPORTS, LOW CONFIDENCE
ABOUT ADVECTION OF FOG BANK INLAND AFFECTING KPHL AND SE AIRPORTS.
WE LEANED TOWARD THE MORE PESSIMISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS AND SLOWED
THEIR TIMING OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.
THIS EVENING...KPHL METRO AIRPORTS TERMINALS AND TERMINALS
AND AIRPORTS TO THE NORTHWEST VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHTER AND NO CIGS. KMIV AND KACY AND SE COASTAL
AIRPORTS FORECASTING FOG BANK TO START MOVING INLAND WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AT KACY AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT KMIV. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS.
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING AT LEAST MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS DUE TO FOG TO
ALL TERMINALS. KPHL METRO AIRPORTS MAY BE NEAR THE EDGE OF IFR
CONDITIONS AS IT TRIES TO SPREAD UP DELAWARE BAY AND THE DELAWARE
RIVER OVERNIGHT. SO CONFIDENCE AS TO EXTENT IS LOW. WE BRING KMIV
AND KACY TO LIFR CONDITIONS BY MORNING AND ALSO INCLUDE A CIG. NO
CIG ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE WITH LIGHT OR CALM WINDS.
FRIDAY MORNING...ALL TERMINALS GO VFR, KACY EXPECTED TO GO LAST.
WINDS BECOME SOUTH AT AROUND 5 MPH AND HIGH BASED CU (5K-6K)
STARTS TO FORM.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON... A VFR CU BASED CIG POSSIBLE AT TIMES NORTHWEST
AIRPORTS/TERMINALS WITH NO CIG FORECAST ELSEWHERE. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BECOME STRONGER, CLOSER TO 10 KNOTS. IT
DOES NOT APPEAR THAT A SEA BREEZE FRONT WILL FORM, MORE OF A
GENERAL SYNOPTIC SCALE WIND AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: VFR WITH SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS UNDER
10 KNOTS. SOME MORNING PATCHY LOW FOG POSSIBLE, BEST CHANCES AT
RDG, ACY AND MIV.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY: VFR THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS PERIOD. SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING EACH DAY LEADING TO MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. SOUTHEAST
WIND GUSTS UNDER 15 KNOTS ON MONDAY AND THEN SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS
AROUND OR UNDER 20 KNOTS ON TUESDAY. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE 12Z.
&&
.MARINE...
AFTER COORDINATING WITH THE DAY SHIFT, WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR OUR AREA WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
SOME OF THE TRAFFIC CAMS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST LOOKED VERY
FOGGY. LATEST SREF/NARRE AND HRRR GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING THAT THE
FOG SHOULD CONTINUE AND SPREAD THROUGH THE NIGHT. NOT A CONFIDENT
FORECAST OFF OF MONMOUTH AND IN UPPER DELAWARE BAY AND TIMING
MIGHT HAVE TO BE EXTENDED ON FRIDAY AS FLOW REMAINS WEAK AND DEW
POINTS ABOVE WATER TEMPS.
SUB SCA CONDITIONS WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THERE IS
SOME FOG ACROSS SE NJ/DEL COASTAL AREAS AND INTO SRN DEL BAY AND
EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON...IT CONTINUES . IT WILL PROBABLY REMAIN INTO
THE EVENING AND PERHAPS BECOME A BIT MORE CONCENTRATED OVERNIGHT. VERY
LIGHT ONSHORE OR UP THE BAY FLOW INTO EARLY TONIGHT THEN
LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SEAS AND WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY
WITH SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MONDAY THEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNDER 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UNDER 20
KNOTS, HIGHEST ON TUESDAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR NJZ021>023-026.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ024-025.
DE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR DEZ002-003.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR DEZ004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...GIGI/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/GIGI
MARINE...GAINES/GIGI/O`HARA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
712 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
WITH A SECONDARY AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES ON FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE. FOR
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK, A COLD FRONT WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED
STATES AS THE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE WEAKENS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WITH AN INTERMEDIATE UPDATE WE WERE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
ADVECTION OF FOG ONTO LAND AREAS FOR TONIGHT. LATEST HRRR
AND NARRE EMPHASIZING DELMARVA AND SERN NJ AS MOST FOG PRONE.
THERE IS ALREADY SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG FROM ACY SOUTHWARD. THERE
ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE NARRE VS THE HRRR AS TO THE EXTENT OF THE
DENSE FOG. THE FORMER IS RESTRICTED MORE TO JUST COASTAL SUSSEX
WHILE THE LATTER WRAPS UP THE DELAWARE NEARLY TO PHILLY.
CONFIDENCE ABOUT THE FOG IS NOT HIGH, BUT WE WILL FOLLOW TRENDS
AND SEE HOW QUICK THE SUNSET ADVECTION IS AND LIKELY MAKE A
DECISION WITH THE NEXT PLANNED UPDATE.
REST OF THE CWA REMAINS QUIET AND JUST SOME CURRENT TEMP AND DEW
POINTS ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE THERE.
FAIR WEATHER TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OFFSHORE. PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT MOST AREAS...PERHAPS NOT AS MUCH
FAR NORTH. MORE WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE SRN NJ/DELMARVA.
LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S MOST AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME FOG
AROUND EARLY...BUT THE SUN WILL QUICKLY BURN THINGS OFF BY AROUND 8
AM OR SO. ITS POSSIBLE THAT SOME FOG MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
COAST...LIKE TODAY. HIGH TEMPS FRI WILL RISE INT THE UPPER 70S/LOW
80S MOST AREAS...COOLER NEAR THE SHORE. WINDS SHOULD MOSTLY S OR SW
AT 5 TO 10 MPH DURING THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL MODELS
WITH THE GENERAL OVERALL PATTERN IN ALL PERIODS. THE MAIN
DISCREPANCY IS THE ECMWF AND THE ECMWF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE LOOK TO
COOL IN THE THREE TO FIVE DAY, WHILE THE GFS IS PERHAPS A TAD TO
WARM. ANY TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
CAROLINAS MAY LEAD TO HIGHER RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANY
OTHER IMPACTS TO DAILY WEATHER VERY LIMITED. DETAILS BELOW...
THIS WEEKEND: WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO OUR NORTHEAST AND A LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN
PLACE. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE EACH DAY ALONG WITH RISING
925 MB TEMPERATURES AS A WARMER AIRMASS IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION.
MANY LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO GET INTO THE LOW/MID 80`S ON AVERAGE
AFTER STARTING OUT IN THE UPPER 50`S/LOW 60`S. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW IS
LIKELY TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST COOLER. WITH THE LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SOME MORNING FOG EACH DAY COULD OCCUR. ALSO THE
INCREASED INSTABILITY AND HUMIDITY MAY LEAD TO AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM. NO TRIGGER IN THIS PERIOD FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED TO
PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS, GOING SLIGHT CHANCE ATTM.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY
TUESDAY ALONG WITH MOISTURE INCREASING FROM A DECAYING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NEAR OR NORTH OF THE CAROLINAS. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT MAY PRODUCE SOME NEEDED RAINS. ENOUGH SEPARATION WITH THESE
FEATURES WILL LIMIT THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN THREAT BUT SOME
LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT
WINDS MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF PATCHY FOG. RISING 925 MB
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 20C SHOULD ALLOW INLAND AREAS TO RUN WELL
ABOVE CURRENT NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 80`S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH MORNING IN THE LOW TO MID
60`S. IN TERMS OF ANY SEVERE THREAT WITH THE FRONT, THIS LOOKS
LIMITED AS THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE NORTHWEST OF THE MORE
FAVORABLE INSTABILITY ATTM. AREAS THAT DO NOT SEE THE SCATTERED
STORMS WILL SLIP CLOSER TO DROUGHT CONDITIONS AS SHORT TERM DEFICITS
WITH RAINFALL CONTINUE TO GROW.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS.
GOING WITH A LARGER TEMPERATURE SPREAD THAN THE MODELED TWO METER
VALUES. CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE MAY STILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS INTO THE
70`S AFTER CHILLIER STARTS IN THE 40`S/50`S. THE MAIN CONCERN MAY
END UP BEING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FIRE SPREAD. RH VALUES AROUND
35% EACH AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
00Z TAFS, HIGHEST CONFIDENCE NORTHWEST AIRPORTS, LOW CONFIDENCE
ABOUT ADVECTION OF FOG BANK INLAND AFFECTING KPHL AND SE AIRPORTS.
WE LEANED TOWARD THE MORE PESSIMISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS AND SLOWED
THEIR TIMING OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.
THIS EVENING...KPHL METRO AIRPORTS TERMINALS AND TERMINALS
AND AIRPORTS TO THE NORTHWEST VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHTER AND NO CIGS. KMIV AND KACY AND SE COASTAL
AIRPORTS FORECASTING FOG BANK TO START MOVING INLAND WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AT KACY AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT KMIV. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS.
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING AT LEAST MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS DUE TO FOG TO
ALL TERMINALS. KPHL METRO AIRPORTS MAY BE NEAR THE EDGE OF IFR
CONDITIONS AS IT TRIES TO SPREAD UP DELAWARE BAY AND THE DELAWARE
RIVER OVERNIGHT. SO CONFIDENCE AS TO EXTENT IS LOW. WE BRING KMIV
AND KACY TO LIFR CONDITIONS BY MORNING AND ALSO INCLUDE A CIG. NO
CIG ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE WITH LIGHT OR CALM WINDS.
FRIDAY MORNING...ALL TERMINALS GO VFR, KACY EXPECTED TO GO LAST.
WINDS BECOME SOUTH AT AROUND 5 MPH AND HIGH BASED CU (5K-6K)
STARTS TO FORM.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON... A VFR CU BASED CIG POSSIBLE AT TIMES NORTHWEST
AIRPORTS/TERMINALS WITH NO CIG FORECAST ELSEWHERE. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BECOME STRONGER, CLOSER TO 10 KNOTS. IT
DOES NOT APPEAR THAT A SEA BREEZE FRONT WILL FORM, MORE OF A
GENERAL SYNOPTIC SCALE WIND AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: VFR WITH SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS UNDER
10 KNOTS. SOME MORNING PATCHY LOW FOG POSSIBLE, BEST CHANCES AT
RDG, ACY AND MIV.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY: VFR THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS PERIOD. SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING EACH DAY LEADING TO MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. SOUTHEAST
WIND GUSTS UNDER 15 KNOTS ON MONDAY AND THEN SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS
AROUND OR UNDER 20 KNOTS ON TUESDAY. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE 12Z.
&&
.MARINE...
AFTER COORDINATING WITH THE DAY SHIFT, WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR OUR AREA WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
SOME OF THE TRAFFIC CAMS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST LOOKED VERY
FOGGY. LATEST SREF/NARRE AND HRRR GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING THAT THE
FOG SHOULD CONTINUE AND SPREAD THROUGH THE NIGHT. NOT A CONFIDENT
FORECAST OFF OF MONMOUTH AND IN UPPER DELAWARE BAY AND TIMING
MIGHT HAVE TO BE EXTENDED ON FRIDAY AS FLOW REMAINS WEAK AND DEW
POINTS ABOVE WATER TEMPS.
SUB SCA CONDITIONS WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THERE IS
SOME FOG ACROSS SE NJ/DEL COASTAL AREAS AND INTO SRN DEL BAY AND
EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON...IT CONTINUES . IT WILL PROBABLY REMAIN INTO
THE EVENING AND PERHAPS BECOME A BIT MORE CONCENTRATED OVERNIGHT. VERY
LIGHT ONSHORE OR UP THE BAY FLOW INTO EARLY TONIGHT THEN
LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SEAS AND WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY
WITH SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MONDAY THEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNDER 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UNDER 20
KNOTS, HIGHEST ON TUESDAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ431-451>455.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-450.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...GIGI/O`HARA
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/GIGI
MARINE...GAINES/GIGI/O`HARA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
902 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2015
.UPDATE...RAIN BAND ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE GA
HAS BEEN WORKING STEADILY SOUTHWARD WHILE DECREASING COVERAGE AS
IT ENCOUNTERS DRY SUBSIDENT AIR SHOWN ON 00Z JAX SOUNDING.
FOLLOWING LATEST HRRR TREND WITH ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO DECREASE
IN COVERAGE AS IT APPROACHES JAX AREA FROM NORTH...MOST LIKELY
LITTLE MORE THAN SPRINKLES/PATCHY SHOWERS AS IT DIMINISHES OVER
NASSAU/DUVAL COUNTIES THROUGH 11PM...MAY CONTINUE LONGER OVER
COASTAL WATERS.
CURRENT LOW TEMP FORECAST TONIGHT LOOKS GOOD.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24HRS. DIMINISHING WINDS COAST
THIS EVENING...MAY INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON KSSI AREA.
&&
.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED IN NEXT CWF ISSUANCE.
WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OFFSHORE COMPONENT...AND
EXERCISE CAUTION NEARSHORE GA WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 60 87 66 89 / 0 10 10 20
SSI 63 79 67 81 / 50 20 20 20
JAX 60 85 68 88 / 20 20 20 20
SGJ 62 80 68 83 / 20 20 20 20
GNV 58 86 64 89 / 0 10 10 10
OCF 59 86 65 90 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR WATERS FROM
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
WOLF/STRUBLE/WALSH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
8 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2015
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWING
DRY MID AND UPPER LEVELS OVERTOP CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR THE EVENING AND
MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOLLOWING THE TREND OF THE TWO
SATELLITE LOOPS THE CIRRUS SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC EAST OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH AND NORTH
CAROLINAS WAS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH...COVERING NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND
SPREADING SOUTH TOWARD CENTRAL FLORIDA. MODELS HAVE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE JUST ENTERING VOLUSIA AND NORTH LAKE COUNTIES TOWARD
SUNRISE FRIDAY. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST QUARTER CIRCLE
WEST THROUGH NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CURRENT OVERNIGHT SKY AND WIND GRIDS SHOW INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE
NORTH AREA AND NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY.
.AVIATION...VFR.
.MARINE...BUOY 009 WAS RECORDING NORTH WINDS AROUND 16 KNOTS AND 6
FOOT LONG PERIOD NORTHEAST SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS OF 20 KNOTS AND 7 FEET. WILL
LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 10PM/02Z THIS EVENING. SMALL
CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR WINDS AND SEAS BEYOND A
FEW MILES OF SHORE FOR AT LEAST TONIGHT.
PREVIOUS AFD
CURRENT-TONIGHT...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LIGHT NWRLY FLOW...THOUGH
EXPECTING NNE FLOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST AND MOVE SLOWLY
INLAND. WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 80S AREAWIDE.
DRIER CONDITIONS AS WELL WITH DEWPOINT READINGS IN THE 50S TO AROUND
60 DEGREES. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR SOUTH
CAROLINA. DRIER AIR WILL STILL FILTER INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. LOWS MAINLY IN L/M 60S...THOUGH COULD
SEE SOME U50S ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF VOLUSIA COUNTY.
EARLIER THIS MORNING ADDED A SMALL POP IN FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR OKEECHOBEE...ST. LUCIE AND MARTIN
COUNTIES. THIS BECAUSE OF MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...SEA/LAKE
BREEZE INTERACTIONS AND MID-LEVEL ENERGY. STEERING FLOW FOR ANY
POTENTIAL ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.
LOCAL WRF/HRRR MODEL RUNS STILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF LATE DAY
CONVECTION HERE. FACTORS THAT WOULD INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT INCLUDE DRY
AIR ALOFT AND A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
AT THE BEACHES...OCEAN SWELLS FROM THE LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL
PRODUCE A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS. STRONGEST RIP POTENTIAL
IS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME ROUGH SURF IS
STILL POSSIBLE FOR THE NRN BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTY BEACHES.
FRI...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN IN PLACE NEAR THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST ON THIS DAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER
THE EASTERN GULF. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH FOR BOTH
EAST/WEST COAST SEA BREEZES TO VENTURE INLAND EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
BACKING WINDS ALONG THE COAST TO E/ESE. LIGHT WNW/NW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ELSEWHERE. DRIER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL SINK SOUTH
ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AS WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW PUSHES
INTO OUR NORTHERN COVERAGE WARNING AREA. LATEST MODEL RUNS SQUEEZE
OUT VERY LITTLE...IF ANY...QPF SO WILL DISCONTINUE ANY PRECIPITATION
FOR NOW IN THE FORECAST FOR OVER LAND. FUTURE SHIFTS CAN ADD BACK IN
IF THEY FEEL LATE DAY SEA BREEZE COLLISIONS CAN MUSTER
CONVECTION...THOUGH A LOW-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAY BE TOO HARD
TO OVERCOME. AFTERNOON MIN RH VALUES FALL INTO THE 30S OVER THE
INTERIOR WHICH IS VERY DRY. ANOTHER WARM DAY IN STORE WITH HIGHS IN
THE L80S ALONG THE VOLUSIA/NORTH BREVARD COASTS...MIDDLE 80S FURTHER
SOUTH ALONG THE COAST AND UPPER 80S INLAND FROM THE COAST.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SAT...LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO BE SLOW
MOVING JUST OFFSHORE THE COAST OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA.
THOUGH QUITE FAR REMOVED FROM THIS SYSTEM...IT WILL STILL EXERT AN
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER. GENERALLY THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THIS
TYPE OF SYSTEM HAS LARGE SCALE SUPPRESSION. THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW
ANY DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW REACHING THIS FAR SOUTH.
THE GFS SHOWS SOMEWHAT HIGHER MOISTURE WRAPPING DOWN INTO EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE STILL ONLY 1.3
TO 1.4 INCHES. THE MODEL HAS LITTLE PRECIP GENERATED DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD AND MOS POPS ARE LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. SINCE INHERITED
POPS ACROSS THE NORTH WERE 20 PERCENT...HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT
AFTERNOON POP THERE...BUT TRIMMED THE AREAL COVERAGE BACK
SLIGHTLY. ACTUALLY...THE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND SLIGHTLY
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MIGHT BE MORE OF A SIGNAL OF
CONSIDERABLE STRATUS DURING THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING.
SUN-WED...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS WILL REBUILD
OVER FL STRAITS AND LIFT STEADILY NWD THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
CAROLINA LOW DRIFTS INTO THE MID ATLC REGION AND BECOMES ABSORBED
BY A LARGER SHORT WAVE FRONTAL TROF. REGIONAL WINDS THRU THE
H100-H70 LYR WILL SHIFT TO THE S/SE AS A RESULT...TAPPING AN
AIRMASS THAT IS STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN HIGH ENOUGH LOW/MID LVL
HUMIDITY TO SUPPORT PRECIP. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS H100-H70 RH VALUES
REMAIN LARGELY AOB 70PCT...THOUGH A BAND OF H85-H50 RH AOA 50PCT
EXTENDING FROM HONDURAS TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS COULD MAKE UP FOR
THE DRIER LOW LVLS.
WILL KEEP PRECIP IN THE FCST THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT
LIMITING CHANCES TO THE 20-30PCT RANGE AS THE INCREASING INFLUENCE
OF THE ATLC RIDGE WILL TEND TO BLOCK OR CANCEL OUT ANY MID/UPR LVL
DYNAMIC SUPPORT. DVLPG ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABV CLIMO AVG...AFTN MAXES IN THE M/U80S... MRNG MINS IN THE
U60S/L70S.
&&
.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR. NW WINDS EXCEPT NNE ALONG THE COAST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS A SEA BREEZE MARCHES SLOWLY INLAND. STILL COULD
SEE AN ISOLD LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING STORM NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
INTERESTS NEAR KOBE-KFPR-KSUA SHOULD REMAIN AWARE AS LOCAL MODEL
RUNS STILL KEEN ON THIS.
&&
.MARINE...CURRENT-TONIGHT...WINDS/SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
SLOWLY AS THE LOW VENTURES FURTHER NORTH TOWARD SOUTH CAROLINA AWAY
FROM ECFL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
AT 4PM/20Z LIKELY TO CONTINUE THE SCA OFFSHORE NORTH OF SEBASTIAN
INLET BASED ON RECENT BUOY 41009 OBS FOR WINDS/SEAS. CAUTIONARY
STATEMENTS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTHERNMOST OFFSHORE LEG AND
POSSIBLY NEAR SHORE FOR NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. JUST NOT SEEING
ENOUGH IMPROVEMENT TO TAKE THESE STATEMENTS AWAY. NW/N WINDS WILL
BACK TO WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.
FRI...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN IN PLACE OFF OF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF OF THE FLORIDA
WEST COAST. W/NW WINDS WILL FALL TO AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH FOR THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON BACKING WINDS
ALONG THE COAST TO E/ESE. SEAS FALLING TO 2-4 FT NEAR SHORE AND 4-5
FT OFFSHORE.
WEEKEND...LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS STILL FORECAST TO BE SLOW MOVING
NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THE SYSTEM MAY STRENGTHEN SOME BUT
EXPECT IT WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE COMPACT...SO THE MAIN PERIPHERAL
IMPACTS SHOULD SHIFT NORTH OF OUR WATERS. THE MODELS SHOW ATLANTIC
SURFACE RIDGE NOSING BACK IN ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE
PENINSULA BY SUNDAY. WINDS OUT OF THE WEST ON SAT SHOULD EASE
ENOUGH FOR A SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING THEN
THE GRADIENT FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON...MIN RHS STILL FORECAST TO
DROP INTO THE L/M 30S THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NRN INTERIOR WITH NW
20 FOOT WINDS TO AROUND 10 MPH.
FRI...THE LOW-LEVELS REMAIN DRY WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES PLUMMETING
AGAIN INTO THE L/M 30S ACROSS THE I-4 CORRIDOR. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SLOWLY INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. NW 20 FT
WINDS 5-10 MPH. HEADLINES STILL NOT NECESSARY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 62 83 66 85 / 0 20 10 20
MCO 65 88 66 90 / 0 10 0 20
MLB 64 85 65 86 / 0 10 10 20
VRB 62 86 64 87 / 10 10 10 20
LEE 64 86 67 88 / 0 20 0 20
SFB 64 88 67 89 / 0 20 10 20
ORL 66 88 67 90 / 0 20 0 20
FPR 62 86 65 87 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM.
&&
$$
IMPACT WX...PENDERGRAST
FORECASTS...WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
330 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
.DISCUSSION...
...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE BRINGING ROUGH
SURF...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS...MINOR BEACH EROSION...AND
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS...
...LAND IMPACTS OF THE LOW WANE AS THE CENTER CONSOLIDATES AND MOVES
NORTH TOWARD THE CAROLINAS...
CURRENT-TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES OFF OF THE EAST FLORIDA
COAST THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE LOW LOCATED NORTH OF THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE SLOWLY NORTHWARD. SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY MOVING INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDER OCCURRING FROM NEAR LAKE GEORGE THROUGH THE I-4
CORRIDOR AND FURTHER SOUTHWARD. MOVEMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY IS PRETTY
MUCH NORTH TO SOUTH. FOR THE MOST PART WINDS AGAIN HAVE NOT BEEN AS
ADVERTISED OWING TO THE FACT STRONGER WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN ALLOWED TO
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE (LIMITED HEATING) WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION AROUND. AT ANY RATE OUR N/NNE DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT IS
FORECAST TO BACK TO THE NW THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW VENTURES FURTHER NORTH.
DEEP MOISTURE STILL FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT
AS DRIER AIR WRAPS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
WILL KEEP SOME LOW EVENING COASTAL SHOWER CHANCES THAT SHOULD END BY
MID/LATE EVENING ALTOGETHER...IF NOT SOONER. THIS THE RESULT OF
DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PENINSULA.
AT THE BEACHES ROUGH SURF...A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
(STRONGEST) FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND A LONG SHORE CURRENT
WITH MINOR BEACH EROSION EXPECTED. SKIES FORECAST TO THIN THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LOWS COOLER WITH L/M 60S AREAWIDE FORECAST.
THU...LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST FL COAST EARLY IN
THIS PERIOD WILL CONTINUE A SLOW N-NW MOVEMENT AWAY FROM ECFL. A
WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE ON THIS DAY WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BECOMING ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG
THE COAST. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE ENTIRE COVERAGE WARNING AREA DRY
FOR NOW...BUT FUTURE SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO MONITOR IF ENOUGH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SHOWERS NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE WITH ANY
ECSB/LAKE BREEZE CLASHES. A CRUNCHING OF THE NUMBERS FROM RECENT
MODEL RUNS SUGGEST AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL INTO
THE 30S/40S INLAND FROM THE COAST. AFTERNOON HIGHS MUCH WARMER THAN
THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS WITH L80S ALONG THE VOLUSIA/NORTH
BREVARD COASTS...M80S IN PLAY FURTHER SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST AND
U80S INTO THE INTERIOR.
THU NIGHT-SUN NIGHT...DECELERATING SFC LOW OFF THE SC COAST WILL
SLOW TO A CRAWL APPROACHING THE COAST AT/NEAR THE SC/NC BORDER AS
THE LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH BLOCKS ITS ESCAPE. WRN NOSE OF
THE ATLC RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD WWD INTO SOUTH FL BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFS AS TO WHETHER ANY SIGNIFICANT
RETROGRADE OF THE CENTER TWD THE W OR WSW WILL OCCUR...WHICH WOULD
HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON WHETHER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE CAN MAKE IT ALL
THE WAY BACK DOWN INTO NRN SECTIONS OF ECFL BY THIS WEEKEND. IMPACT
OF ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE MINOR IN ANY EVENT. HAVE A SMALL POP FOR
VOLUSIA/NRN BREVARD ON SAT OWING TO THIS POSSIBILITY...THEN A SMALL
CHC FOR DIURNAL SHRA/TS ALL AREAS SUN. MAX TEMPS RECOVER TO ABOVE
NORMAL WHILE MINS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL MINS THU-FRI NIGHTS MODIFY
OVER THE WEEKEND.
MON-WED (PREV)...THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER
THE FL STRAITS AND BUILD SLOWLY NWD AS THE CAROLINA LOW CREEPS UP
THE ERN SEABOARD. SRLY BREEZE WILL PREVAIL THRU THE H100-H70 LYR
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A FLOW THAT WILL TAP A CARIBBEAN AIRMASS THAT
IS ON THE DRY SIDE. LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS H100-H70 RH VALUES
LARGELY AOB 70PCT...WHICH WILL IMPEDE MOISTURE LOADING ACRS THE
GOMEX/W ATLC REGION. WILL BRING PRECIP BACK INTO THE FCST ON
SUN...BUT LIMITING POPS TO 20-30PCT RANGE THRU THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK. SRLY FLOW WILL GENERATE ABV AVG TEMPS...AFTN MAXES IN THE
M/U80S...MRNG MINS IN THE U60S/L70S.
&&
.AVIATION...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD TONIGHT. SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA ACTIVITY
WILL END OVER LAND THIS EVENING AS IT EVENTUALLY MOVES OFF INTO THE
WESTERN PENINSULA AND DISSIPATES WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE. HAVE KEPT A
SMALL POP THIS EVENING ALONG THE COAST BUT SUSPECT MOST PLACES WILL
REMAIN DRY HERE. CURRENT N/NNE WINDS WILL VEER TO NW OVERNIGHT.
GENERALLY VFR CIGS WITH MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS/ISOLD
TSRA. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA ON
THU. MAINLY NW WINDS WITH ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON
ALONG THE EAST COAST.
&&
.MARINE...CURRENT-TONIGHT...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE
BAHAMAS WILL CONTINUE A NORTH TRACK OVERNIGHT. CURRENT CONDITIONS
WARRANT BRINGING AN END TO THE SCA NEAR SHORE WITH NEXT CWA ISSUANCE
AT 4PM/20Z. WILL REPLACE WITH CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS THOUGH. OFFSHORE
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED 6-9 FT. SEAS 4-6 FT NEAR SHORE. N/NNE WINDS
WILL VEER TO NW THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS
WILL BE ON A DECREASING TREND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THU...THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE N/NNW AWAY FROM THE COASTAL
WATERS. WINDS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND...REMAINING NWRLY...EXCEPT
BECOMING ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST WITH SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED WITH SWELLS GENERATED
FROM THE NEARBY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SUSPECT AN SCA WILL STILL BE
NECESSARY OVER THE OPEN ATLC FOR THE SEAS WITH EXERCISE CAUTION
STILL NECESSARY NEAR SHORE.
THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...LIGHT TO GENTLE WRLY BREEZE TO START FRI. THE
WEAK SFC PGRAD WILL ALLOW SFC WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE E/SE BY AFTN AS
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DVLPS. AS THE STORM MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS...THE ATLC RIDGE WILL REBUILD WWD INTO THE FL
STRAITS/S FL PENINSULA AFT SUNSET...ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE
S/SW. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-3FT NEAR SHORE/4-5FT OFFSHORE WILL SUBSIDE
BY ABOUT A FOOT AS SWELL IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY DECAY...WITH A
MINIMAL WIND CHOP.
SAT-MON...ATLC RIDGE WILL BUILD SLOWLY NWD THRU THE WEEKEND AS THE
CAROLINA LOW CREEPS UP THE COAST. SRLY BREEZE WILL PREVAIL...
SHIFTING BTWN SW AND SE WITH THE FORMATION OF DIURNAL SEA BREEZES.
SEAS GENERALLY 2FT NEAR SHORE/3FT OFFSHORE...BUILDING BY A FOOT OR
SO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SRLY FLOW ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE ATLC STARTS
TO FRESHEN.
CAVEAT WITH THIS FCST WILL BE THAT SHOULD THE LOW DEEPEN AS A STC OR
SC MORE THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED...IT WOULD SEND SOME HIGHER SWELLS
DOWN AT US INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THU...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE RECENT LOW PRESSURE WITH AFTERNOON LOW MIN RH
VALUES FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE 30S OVER THE INTERIOR FROM OSCEOLA
COUNTY NORTHWARD. DISPERSION INDICES WILL BE GENERALLY GOOD IN THE
AFTERNOON. NW 20 FT WINDS IN UPWARDS OF AROUND 10 MPH...EXCEPT ALONG
THE COAST WHERE AN ONSHORE (NNE/NE) COMPONENT DEVELOPS IN THE
AFTERNOON. MUCH WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE U80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 63 82 64 84 / 20 0 10 10
MCO 66 87 64 87 / 10 0 10 10
MLB 65 83 64 86 / 20 0 10 10
VRB 65 85 64 87 / 20 0 10 10
LEE 65 87 64 86 / 10 0 10 10
SFB 65 89 63 87 / 10 0 10 10
ORL 67 86 66 87 / 10 0 10 10
FPR 62 85 62 89 / 20 0 10 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH
TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....CRISTALDI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
950 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
.DISCUSSION...
...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE TODAY WILL BRING ROUGH
SURF...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS...MINOR BEACH EROSION...AND A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG EAST CENTRAL FL BEACHES...
...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST OF
BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES INTO THE AFTERNOON...
CURRENTLY/TODAY...MID-UPPER TROUGHING JUST OFF OF THE ECFL COAST
THIS MORNING. VISIBLE SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING INTERESTING
SWIRL 40-50 MILES OFF OF JUPITER INLET THIS MORNING. DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST FL PENINSULA REMAINS FORECAST TO LIFT
NNE`WRD THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS CURRENT N/NE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY BACK MORE NWRLY. WINDS REMAIN FORECAST TO APPROACH THE
BREEZY CATEGORY INTO THIS AFTERNOON BUT CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION MAY
ALTER THESE FIELDS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER ALONG THE COAST.
THE LOCAL WRF REMAINS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE LOCAL HRRR IN
DEVELOPING SCATTERED SHRA/ISOLD TSRA INLAND FROM THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL LIFT NE OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR WRAPS
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. WILL KEEP SOME LOW EVENING CSTL
SHOWER CHCS THAT SHOULD END BY MID TO LATE EVENING AS LOW LVL FLOW
BECOMES NW AND DRIER AIR MOVES TWD THE AREA FROM THE NRN PENINSULA.
AT THE BEACHES ROUGH SURF...A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AND A
DEVELOPING LONG SHORE CURRENT WILL BE PRESENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MINOR BEACH EROSION EXPECTED. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECAST
CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS WELL
INTERIOR AREAS LATER IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
U70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES FOR COASTAL AREAS AND L80S FOR THE
INTERIOR. LOWS COOLER OVERNIGHT WITH L/M 60S AREAWIDE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...OCNL ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS THIS MORNING FROM THE ATLC
AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE THE ECFL COAST. GENERALLY
VFR CIGS FOR THE INTERIOR WITH MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS
MOVING ONSHORE FOR CSTL TERMINALS. LOCALLY BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH SHOWERS...ESPEC NEAR KMLB ALONG THE COAST WILL BRING BRIEF IFR
VSBYS WITH +RA. CONDS BCMG VFR ALL AREAS TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
PULLS OFF TO THE NORTH OFFSHORE FROM NE FL. GUSTY WINDS TO 20 KNOTS
INTERIOR AND 20-25 KNOTS N CSTL TERMINALS /KDAB-KMLB/ THIS AFTN IS
EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A
CIRCULATION OVER THE VERY SOUTHERN OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING. THIS AREA OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND LIFT NNE`WARD THRU TONIGHT. LIKELY SHOWERS
FORECAST WITH ISOLD STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE ON THE STRONG
SIDE OVER THE GULF STREAM. A FEW STRONGER LOW-TOPPED CELLS OFFSHORE
BETWEEN SEBASTIAN-JUPITER INLET WITH AN ISOLD WATERSPOUT NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL MARINE LEGS WITH FORECAST
WINDS RANGING FROM NNW-NE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY BACKING TO
NW TONIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH. WIND SPEEDS A BIT TRICKY...THOUGH
THE FORECAST CALLS FOR 20-25 KTS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL DISTORT WIND FIELD AT TIMES WITH HIGHER GUSTS/LOCALLY
HIGHER SEAS INVOF OF STRONGER ACTIVITY...BUT THERE WILL BE TIMES
WHERE SPEEDS ARE LESS THAN FORECAST. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD 6-9
FT OFFSHORE/GULF STREAM WITH 4-7 FT SEAS BUILDING ELSEWHERE THRU
TONIGHT.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH
TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH
TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR SEBASTIAN INLET
TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM.
&&
$$
SEDLOCK/CRISTALDI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
419 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF COAST REGION AND A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EAST OF FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE FORECAST AREA IN THE NEAR
TERM. IT WILL BE ANOTHER SEASONABLY WARM DAY WITH DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES CREEPING UP ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY.
THE GFS...NUMEROUS WRF RUNS...AND THE HRRR MODEL ALL INDICATE SOME
QPF AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND POSSIBLY ADJACENT SOUTHWEST GEORGIA THIS
AFTERNOON...SO HAVE ADDED MENTION IN THE FORECAST...AND SHAVED A
COUPLE DEGREES FROM THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY.
.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AFFECTS ON THE
LOCAL AREA. THE 00Z GFS DOES SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
ON FRIDAY...BUT THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE FORM OF CLOUD COVER WITH PRECIP REMAINING EAST OF THE AREA.
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE AREA RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S.
.LONG TERM [FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...
THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET BECOMES BETTER DEFINED AGAIN OFF THE
WEST COAST AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES
MOVES EASTWARD. LOCALLY...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AVERAGING A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY] THE COMBINATION OF A SLIGHT EAST TO
NORTHEAST WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY STILL MOSTLY AT OR BELOW 90
PERCENT SHOULD PREVENT ANY FOG FROM FORMING THIS MORNING...HOWEVER
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS PRODUCING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR OR IFR AT ONE OR TWO AIRPORTS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AGAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE APPEARS TO
BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BRIEFLY IMPACTING A FEW
AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO
LOW FOR MENTION IN THE TAFS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY WITH FAIRLY LOW WINDS
AND SEAS CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MEET RED FLAG
WARNING CRITERIA THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...ALTHOUGH THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE IN
SOME AREAS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DEEP MIXING AND WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE DISPERSION VALUES TO BE HIGH THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT NOT QUITE AS HIGH ON THURSDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AND RIVERS
RECEDING...THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGY CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 88 63 89 61 89 / 20 10 10 10 10
PANAMA CITY 83 65 80 65 81 / 20 10 0 0 0
DOTHAN 85 62 85 61 87 / 10 10 0 0 10
ALBANY 85 59 86 60 88 / 10 10 0 0 10
VALDOSTA 87 62 86 61 86 / 10 10 10 10 10
CROSS CITY 88 60 88 61 89 / 20 10 0 0 10
APALACHICOLA 83 67 82 66 83 / 10 10 0 0 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TD
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...TD
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...TD
HYDROLOGY...DVD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
415 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
.DISCUSSION...
...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE TODAY WILL BRING ROUGH
SURF...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS...MINOR BEACH EROSION...AND A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG EAST CENTRAL FL BEACHES...
...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST OF
BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES INTO THE AFTERNOON...
CURRENTLY/TODAY...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING OFF
THE SE FL COAST THIS MORNING WITH SFC PRESSURE DROPPING TO 1016.4
MBS AT KFLL AND 1016.7 MBS AT SETTLEMENT POINT ON GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND AT 06Z. SHORT RANGE MODELS GRADUALLY DEEPEN THE SFC LOW
PRESSURE AREA AS IT MOVES NNE TODAY IN TANDEM WITH A MID LVL CLOSED
LOW AT 500 MBS. LOW LVL FLOW CURRENTLY FROM THE E-NE WILL BECOME NE-
N INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS A FEW MILLIBARS EAST OF
OUR OFFSHORE WATERS INTO THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STORMS WILL MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST INTO EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS N CSTL AREAS BY LATE IN
THE DAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL FURTHER NORTH TOWARD EARLY
EVENING. WILL HAVE LIKELY SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE COAST AND CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/SLGT CHC FOR A LIGHTNING STORM ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE VOLUSIA
AND BREVARD COUNTY BARRIER ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH POSSIBLE. AT THE BEACHES ROUGH SURF...A MODERATE RISK FOR
RIP CURRENTS AND A DEVELOPING LONG SHORE CURRENT WILL BE PRESENT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED CLOSE TO THE
EAST COAST WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS WELL INTERIOR AREAS
LATER IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 80/LWR 80S FOR
COASTAL AREAS AND MID 80S FOR THE INTERIOR.
TONIGHT...THE SFC LOW OFFSHORE FROM VOLUSIA COUNTY DURING THE EARLY
EVENING WILL LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NW WITH
DEEP MOISTURE ALSO LIFTING NE OF THE AREA AS DRIER AIR WRAPS AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. WILL KEEP SOME LOW EVENING CSTL SHOWER
CHCS THAT SHOULD END BY MID TO LATE EVENING AS LOW LVL FLOW BECOMES
NW AND DRIER AIR MOVES TWD THE AREA FROM THE NRN PENINSULA. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
THU-FRI...BROAD SFC LOW WILL WOBBLE SLOWLY UP THE CAROLINA
COAST...BLOCKED OUT BY A WELL DEFINED H100-H70 RIDGE AXIS DRAPED
OVER THE MID ATLC/TN/OH RIVER VALLEYS. THIS TRACK WILL PLACE CENTRAL
FL ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...AN AREA USUALLY ASSOCD WITH A
DESCENDING AIRMASS AND DRY AIR ADVECTION DUE TO W/NWRLY CONTINENTAL
FLOW.
THE AIRMASS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL BE THE EVENTUAL SOURCE REGION
FOR CENTRAL FL WX THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. LATEST RAP
ANALYSIS DOES INDEED SHOW THIS AIRMASS TO BE QUITE DRY AND STABLE
WITH H100-H70 MEAN RH VALUES AOB 50PCT...H85-H50 VALUES AOB 30PCT.
THE 00Z ATLANTA RAOB MEASURED PWAT VALUES ARND 0.7" WITH A
NOTEWORTHY SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE H85-H70 LYR.
NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE 00Z MOS GUIDANCE CAME IN QUITE DRY WITH POPS
THRU 12Z SAT LARGELY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS CENTRAL FLORIDA GETS
"DRY SLOTTED". A FEW SHRAS MAY DVLP AFT SUNSET FRI EVNG ALONG AND N
OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WORK ITS WAY INTO N
FL...BUT PRECIP THAT DVLPS FROM SUCH A MOISTURE ADVECTION REGIME
RARELY HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT. AS SUCH...WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF
THE FCST THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. MAX/MIN TEMPS NEAR CLIMO
AVG.
SAT-TUE...THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE FL
STRAITS AND BUILD SLOWLY NWD AS THE CAROLINA LOW CREEPS UP THE ERN
SEABOARD. SRLY BREEZE WILL PREVAIL THRU THE H100-H70 LYR INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...A FLOW THAT WILL TAP A CARIBBEAN AIRMASS THAT IS ON THE
DRY SIDE. LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS H100-H70 RH VALUES LARGELY AOB
70PCT...WHICH WILL IMPEDE MOISTURE LOADING ACRS THE GOMEX/W ATLC
REGION. WILL BRING PRECIP BACK INTO THE FCST ON SUN...BUT LIMITING
POPS TO 20-30PCT RANGE THRU THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. SRLY FLOW
WILL GENERATE ABV AVG TEMPS...AFTN MAXES IN THE M/U80S...MRNG MINS
IN THE U60S/L70S.
&&
.AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL STREAM ONSHORE FROM THE ATLC AS LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE N/NNE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLC WATERS TODAY.
GENERALLY VFR CIGS FOR THE INTERIOR WITH MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH
SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE FOR CSTL TERMINALS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH
SHOWERS...ESPEC FROM KMLB-KDAB ALONG THE COAST WILL BRING BRIEF IFR
VSBYS WITH +RA. CONDS BCMG VFR ALL AREAS TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
PULLS OFF TO THE NORTH OFFSHORE FROM NE FL. GUSTY WINDS TO 20 KNOTS
INTERIOR AND 20-25 KNOTS N CSTL TERMINALS /KDAB-KMLB/ THIS AFTN
IS EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE... WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE TODAY BOTH NAM AND
GFS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING WINDS UP TO 20-24 KNOTS
OFFSHORE AND INTO THE NRN/CENTRAL NEAR SHORE WATERS. WILL RAISE AN
ADVISORY FOR ALL MARINE AREAS WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING MID DAY
INTO THIS EVENING. NE-N WINDS INCREASING ACROSS GULF STREAM WILL
BUILD SEAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING TO AROUND 8 FT. WILL
GENERALLY HAVE 6-8 FT SEAS OFFSHORE AND SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT NEAR
THE COAST AND UP TO AROUND 7 FT CLOSER TO 20 NM OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL
BECOME NW-W TONIGHT WITH STRONGER WINDS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NRN OFFSHORE LEGS. WILL ALLOW ADVISORY FOR THE NEAR SHORE
SRN LEG TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM...BUT CONTINUE THE REMAINING MARINE ZONES
IN AN ADVISORY THROUGH 8 AM.
THU-THU NIGHT...MODERATE TO FRESH W/NW BREEZE N OF SEBASTIAN INLET
WILL DIMINISH AS THE SFC LOW DRIFTS INTO THE CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS...GENTLE TO MODERATE W/NW BREEZE S OF THE INLET BCMG ONSHORE
NEAR THE COAST AS LCL PGRAD WEAKENS AND ALLOWS THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE TO DVLP. SEAS 3-5FT NEARSHORE AND 5-7FT OFFSHORE THRU THE
DAY...SUBSIDING TO 2-4FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5FT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
FRI-FRI NIGHT...LIGHT TO GENTLE WRLY BREEZE TO START THE DAY...BUT A
WEAK SFC PGRAD WILL ALLOW SFC WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE E/SE BY AFTN AS
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DVLPS. AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE
OVER THE CAROLINAS...THE ATLC RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE FL
STRAITS/S FL PENINSULA AFT SUNSET...ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE
S/SW. SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE.
SAT-SUN...ATLC RIDGE WILL BUILD SLOWLY NWD THRU THE WEEKEND AS THE
CAROLINA LOW CREEPS UP THE COAST. SRLY BREEZE WILL PREVAIL...
SHIFTING BTWN SW AND SE WITH THE FORMATION OF THE DIURNAL
SEABREEZES. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3FT...UP TO 4FT IN THE GULF STREAM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 80 63 80 65 / 60 20 0 0
MCO 85 65 86 64 / 40 10 0 0
MLB 82 64 82 65 / 60 20 10 0
VRB 82 63 83 66 / 60 20 10 10
LEE 86 65 86 66 / 30 10 0 0
SFB 84 64 86 65 / 50 10 0 0
ORL 84 67 86 65 / 40 10 0 0
FPR 82 64 83 66 / 60 20 10 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH
TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH
TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR SEBASTIAN INLET
TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....BRAGAW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
1009 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2015
...SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA FORMS OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARD THE COAST ON
SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
ON MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
PER COORDINATION WITH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...SUBTROPICAL
STORM ANA ADVISORIES WILL BEGIN AT 11 PM EDT.
PRELIMINARY OBSERVATIONS FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INVESTIGATING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH COAST COAST INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. DEEP CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED AND MAINTAINED ITSELF AGAINST THE NORMAL DIURNAL CYCLE
WHICH INDICATES THAT DRY AIR ENTRAINING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLES HAS MIXED OUT...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS
MAY BE DUE TO INCREASING INFLUENCES FROM THE CONSIDERABLY WARMER
WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM. COORDINATION WITH THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER IS ONGOING THIS EVENING AND IF THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE THE SYSTEM WILL MOST LIKELY BE IDENTIFIED AS
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL LATER THIS EVENING. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
AND/OR WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST LATER THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT.
FOR THE LATE EVENING UPDATE...THE LARGE FEEDER BAND THAT HAS
PROGRESSED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY IS POISED TO
MOVE SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER SHORTLY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
SUGGEST LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER FEEDER BAND CURRENTLY TAKING SHAPE
OVER THE GULF STREAM /PER KCLX RADAR DATA/ APPROACHES THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST. POPS INCREASING TO 50-60 PERCENT FOR
CHARLESTON AND EASTERN BERKELEY COUNTIES LATE LOOK ON TRACK WITH
10-30 PERCENT POPS ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES EAST OF I-95 WILL NOT
WAIVER TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT WITH AS MUCH AS 30-35 KT OF WIND NOTED
AT 0.5 KM ON THE ESRL WIND PROFILER AT THE KJZI AIRPORT. THIS
TREND IS CAPTURED WELL BY THE LATEST H3R AND RAP OUTPUT. FARTHER
INLAND...TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY DROP WITH LOWS AREA WIDE RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60S FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO THE
MID 60S AT THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SC COAST WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIFTING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE QUITE SIMILAR THOUGH THE
ECMWF IS A TAD SLOWER WITH THE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE COASTLINE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD...THE WEATHER
WILL VARY SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA. THE PRIMARY CLOUD SHIELD WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTH CAROLINA
WHILE WAVES OF RAIN PUSH INTO OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES FROM OFF THE
ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVER
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GA.
TEMPERATURES OVER EASTERN AREAS INCLUDING THE TRI-COUNTY WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE MIDDLE 70S ON FRIDAY WHILE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WARMS
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT UPWARD SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND MORE DRY AIR WRAPS AROUND THE
WESTERN FLANKS...ALLOWING FOR MORE INSOLATION. TEMPS WILL SOLIDLY BE
IN THE 80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT WELL AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AND BEYOND. THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR TEMPERATURES WARMING TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL...INTO THE UPPER 80S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH
MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY SINK INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...BUT IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER OR NOT THIS FEATURE WILL
ACTUALLY CLEAR THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCHS...VFR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH MVFR PROBABILITIES
INCREASING AFTER 10Z AS ANOTHER FEEDER BAND APPROACHES FROM LOW
PRESSURE OFFSHORE. WILL HIGHLIGHT PREVAILING MVFR CIGS 10-14Z WITH
LIGHT RAIN DURING THIS TIME. VFR THEREAFTER...ALTHOUGH THIS IS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN WALL OF THE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS. GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME OVERNIGHT...THEN
PICK BACK UP AFTER SUNRISE.
KSAV...VFR. SHOWERS NEAR THE TERMINAL WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH.
GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...THEN PICK BACK UP AFTER
SUNRISE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY AT KCHS. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY WATERS AND MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED INTO THE GEORGIA
OFFSHORE WATERS PER GOING WIND TRENDS. WILL AWAIT FURTHER
COORDINATION WITH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER BEFORE COMMITTING
TO THIS AS TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST REMAINS EXTRATROPICAL AS OF LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT...KEEPING THE LOW NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE SC COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING IT WNW TOWARD THE
SC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. UNLESS THE SYSTEM BECOMES SIGNIFICANTLY
STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED BY THE MODELS... LOCAL WIND
IMPACTS WILL NOT CHANGE CONSIDERABLY FROM ONGOING FORECAST. WE
HAVE A GALE WARNING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
CHARLESTON SC NEARSHORE WATERS WHICH IS WHERE THE TIGHTEST
GRADIENT WILL PERSIST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW. LATER IN THE
DAY FRIDAY THE STRONGEST WIND FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTHERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM. MOST OF OUR WATERS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY
EXCEPT FOR THE GA NEARSHORE WATERS WHERE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT
FETCH.
AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST AND WINDS SHIFT TO A MORE
OFFSHORE FETCH...WINDS OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS MAY NOT EVEN
BE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.
RIP CURRENTS...A HIGH RISK IN EFFECT ALL BEACHES FRIDAY DUE TO GUSTY
WINDS AND MODERATE SWELLS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT...TIDAL DEPARTURES ARE LOWERING NOW THAT WINDS HAVE TURNED
OFFSHORE AND IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER LEVELS WILL REACH 7.0 FT MLLW
IN THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST. SINCE DEPARTURES ARE STILL
POSITIVE WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY AS IS.
FRIDAY...BREAKERS IN THE SURF ZONE WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS ACROSS
THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
LARGEST SEAS WILL BE OVER THE SC WATERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR GAZ117-
119-139-141.
SC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
SCZ048>051.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR SCZ048>051.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR SCZ050.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ352.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
AMZ330.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
909 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2015
...LOW PRESSURE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST...
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARD THE COAST ON
SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
ON MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
PRELIMINARY OBSERVATIONS FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INVESTIGATING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH COAST COAST INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. DEEP CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED AND MAINTAINED ITSELF AGAINST THE NORMAL DIURNAL CYCLE
WHICH INDICATES THAT DRY AIR ENTRAINING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLES HAS MIXED OUT...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS
MAY BE DUE TO INCREASING INFLUENCES FROM THE CONSIDERABLY WARMER
WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM. COORDINATION WITH THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER IS ONGOING THIS EVENING AND IF THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE THE SYSTEM WILL MOST LIKELY BE IDENTIFIED AS
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL LATER THIS EVENING. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
AND/OR WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST LATER THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT.
FOR THE LATE EVENING UPDATE...THE LARGE FEEDER BAND THAT HAS
PROGRESSED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY IS POISED TO
MOVE SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER SHORTLY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
SUGGEST LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER FEEDER BAND CURRENTLY TAKING SHAPE
OVER THE GULF STREAM /PER KCLX RADAR DATA/ APPROACHES THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST. POPS INCREASING TO 50-60 PERCENT FOR
CHARLESTON AND EASTERN BERKELEY COUNTIES LATE LOOK ON TRACK WITH
10-30 PERCENT POPS ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES EAST OF I-95 WILL NOT
WAIVER TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT WITH AS MUCH AS 30-35 KT OF WIND NOTED
AT 0.5 KM ON THE ESRL WIND PROFILER AT THE KJZI AIRPORT. THIS
TREND IS CAPTURED WELL BY THE LATEST H3R AND RAP OUTPUT. FARTHER
INLAND...TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY DROP WITH LOWS AREA WIDE RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60S FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO THE
MID 60S AT THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SC COAST WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIFTING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE QUITE SIMILAR THOUGH THE
ECMWF IS A TAD SLOWER WITH THE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE COASTLINE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD...THE WEATHER
WILL VARY SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA. THE PRIMARY CLOUD SHIELD WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTH CAROLINA
WHILE WAVES OF RAIN PUSH INTO OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES FROM OFF THE
ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVER
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GA.
TEMPERATURES OVER EASTERN AREAS INCLUDING THE TRI-COUNTY WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE MIDDLE 70S ON FRIDAY WHILE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WARMS
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT UPWARD SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND MORE DRY AIR WRAPS AROUND THE
WESTERN FLANKS...ALLOWING FOR MORE INSOLATION. TEMPS WILL SOLIDLY BE
IN THE 80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT WELL AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AND BEYOND. THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR TEMPERATURES WARMING TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL...INTO THE UPPER 80S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH
MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY SINK INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...BUT IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER OR NOT THIS FEATURE WILL
ACTUALLY CLEAR THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCHS...VFR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH MVFR PROBABILITIES
INCREASING AFTER 10Z AS ANOTHER FEEDER BAND APPROACHES FROM LOW
PRESSURE OFFSHORE. WILL HIGHLIGHT PREVAILING MVFR CIGS 10-14Z WITH
LIGHT RAIN DURING THIS TIME. VFR THEREAFTER...ALTHOUGH THIS IS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN WALL OF THE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS. GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME OVERNIGHT...THEN
PICK BACK UP AFTER SUNRISE.
KSAV...VFR. SHOWERS NEAR THE TERMINAL WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH.
GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...THEN PICK BACK UP AFTER
SUNRISE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY AT KCHS. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY WATERS AND MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED INTO THE GEORGIA
OFFSHORE WATERS PER GOING WIND TRENDS. WILL AWAIT FURTHER
COORDINATION WITH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER BEFORE COMMITTING
TO THIS AS TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST REMAINS EXTRATROPICAL AS OF LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT...KEEPING THE LOW NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE SC COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING IT WNW TOWARD THE
SC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. UNLESS THE SYSTEM BECOMES SIGNIFICANTLY
STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED BY THE MODELS... LOCAL WIND
IMPACTS WILL NOT CHANGE CONSIDERABLY FROM ONGOING FORECAST. WE
HAVE A GALE WARNING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
CHARLESTON SC NEARSHORE WATERS WHICH IS WHERE THE TIGHTEST
GRADIENT WILL PERSIST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW. LATER IN THE
DAY FRIDAY THE STRONGEST WIND FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTHERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM. MOST OF OUR WATERS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY
EXCEPT FOR THE GA NEARSHORE WATERS WHERE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT
FETCH.
AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST AND WINDS SHIFT TO A MORE
OFFSHORE FETCH...WINDS OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS MAY NOT EVEN
BE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.
RIP CURRENTS...A HIGH RISK IN EFFECT ALL BEACHES FRIDAY DUE TO GUSTY
WINDS AND MODERATE SWELLS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT...TIDAL DEPARTURES ARE LOWERING NOW THAT WINDS HAVE TURNED
OFFSHORE AND IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER LEVELS WILL REACH 7.0 FT MLLW
IN THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST. SINCE DEPARTURES ARE STILL
POSITIVE WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY AS IS.
FRIDAY...BREAKERS IN THE SURF ZONE WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS ACROSS
THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
LARGEST SEAS WILL BE OVER THE SC WATERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR GAZ117-
119-139-141.
SC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
SCZ048>051.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR SCZ048>051.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR SCZ050.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ352.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
AMZ330.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1243 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
PERSISTENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHWARD THIS
MORNING...WITH 15Z/10AM SURFACE OBS SHOWING IT ALONG A MOLINE TO
KANKAKEE LINE. WINDS HAVE BECOME SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE ENTIRE KILX
CWA...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH. SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NOTED ON
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER KANSAS/OKLAHOMA WILL LIFT N/NE
TODAY...HOWEVER ANY CLOUDS/PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL REMAIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. FURTHER
EAST...MOSTLY SUNNY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. CURRENT FORECAST IS
RIGHT ON TRACK...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR MACOMB TO PARIS ACROSS CENTRAL IL
THIS MORNING AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY ARE RESULTING IN AREAS OF FOG...WITH OCCASIONAL DENSE
FOG OBSERVATIONS IN BLOOMINGTON...AND LASALLE AND PONTIAC TO THE
NORTH. 7Z HRRR MODEL IS DEPICTING WELL THE DENSE AREA AND HAVE
INCORPORATED PATCHY DENSE FOG IN GRIDS ACCORDING TO THIS. FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY AROUND 8 AM WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
FOR TODAY...A 500 MB RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED NW-SE ACROSS IL WILL SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD WHILE A SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EJECTS
NORTHEASTWARD JUST WEST OF ILLINOIS. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN SIDE OF ILLINOIS BUT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE CENTRAL IL FORECAST AREA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR CENTRAL IL INDICATE A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND
DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS WHICH SHOULD HELP TO PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH ENOUGH MOISTURE BELOW THE DRY SUBSIDENT LAYER
COULD BRING SCATTERED TO BROKEN SHALLOW CUMULUS. SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWARD WITH
WARM AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING HIGHS INTO THE MID OR UPPER 80S
ACROSS CENTRAL IL. SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHERLY 8-15 MPH
WITH GUSTS 12-20 MPH...THE STRONGER WINDS TOWARD THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE STATE.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
BRIEF DRY PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE
WARM TEMPS. STORM/WAVE OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL TRACK
NORTH/NORTHEAST BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOSTLY STAY TO THE WEST...BUT
SOME PRECIP CHANCES SNEAKING INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON THURSDAY,
WITH THE BEST CHANCES PUSHING INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND OVERNIGHT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BIGGER SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE DESERT
SW OVER THE NEXT 36 HRS OR SO AND WILL KEEP THE WESTERN US UNDER A
TROF, AMPLIFYING THE PATTERN AND SETTING UP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR
THE MIDWEST. MANY SHORTWAVES TRACKING AROUND THE TROF AND UP INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WORKWEEK. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS KEEP HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY THREAT IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS SLOWLY DRIVEN OUT OF THE REGION.
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE THE BEST
FOCUS AND THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY DIFFUSE WITH THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM WITH A PRETTY STUBBORN WARM
AIRMASS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SFC KEEPING WAA GOING EVEN WITH
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AT LEAST UNTIL THE TROF FINALLY
EXITS NE AND ALLOWS COOLER TEMPS BACK INTO THE REGION BY DAY7/DAY 8.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 10KT AND BACKING TO
SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY AS CU-FIELD
SEEN ON LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY EXPANDS NORTHWARD. CLOUD
BASES ARE AROUND 7000FT AS PER SURFACE OBS AND RAPID REFRESH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. MAY SEE AN OCCASIONAL BROKEN CEILING...BUT
CLOUD COVERAGE WILL GENERALLY BE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET...HOWEVER AN
AREA OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT-WAVE OVER THE
PLAINS WILL CROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS
THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. HAVE
INTRODUCED VFR CEILINGS OF AROUND 10000FT AT BOTH KPIA AND KSPI
AFTER 03Z ACCORDINGLY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE RULE BY
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS RESUMING.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...ONTON
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...BARNES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1045 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
PERSISTENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHWARD THIS
MORNING...WITH 15Z/10AM SURFACE OBS SHOWING IT ALONG A MOLINE TO
KANKAKEE LINE. WINDS HAVE BECOME SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE ENTIRE KILX
CWA...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH. SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NOTED ON
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER KANSAS/OKLAHOMA WILL LIFT N/NE
TODAY...HOWEVER ANY CLOUDS/PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL REMAIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. FURTHER
EAST...MOSTLY SUNNY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. CURRENT FORECAST IS
RIGHT ON TRACK...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR MACOMB TO PARIS ACROSS CENTRAL IL
THIS MORNING AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY ARE RESULTING IN AREAS OF FOG...WITH OCCASIONAL DENSE
FOG OBSERVATIONS IN BLOOMINGTON...AND LASALLE AND PONTIAC TO THE
NORTH. 7Z HRRR MODEL IS DEPICTING WELL THE DENSE AREA AND HAVE
INCORPORATED PATCHY DENSE FOG IN GRIDS ACCORDING TO THIS. FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY AROUND 8 AM WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
FOR TODAY...A 500 MB RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED NW-SE ACROSS IL WILL SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD WHILE A SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EJECTS
NORTHEASTWARD JUST WEST OF ILLINOIS. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN SIDE OF ILLINOIS BUT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE CENTRAL IL FORECAST AREA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR CENTRAL IL INDICATE A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND
DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS WHICH SHOULD HELP TO PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH ENOUGH MOISTURE BELOW THE DRY SUBSIDENT LAYER
COULD BRING SCATTERED TO BROKEN SHALLOW CUMULUS. SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWARD WITH
WARM AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING HIGHS INTO THE MID OR UPPER 80S
ACROSS CENTRAL IL. SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHERLY 8-15 MPH
WITH GUSTS 12-20 MPH...THE STRONGER WINDS TOWARD THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE STATE.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
BRIEF DRY PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE
WARM TEMPS. STORM/WAVE OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL TRACK
NORTH/NORTHEAST BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOSTLY STAY TO THE WEST...BUT
SOME PRECIP CHANCES SNEAKING INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON THURSDAY,
WITH THE BEST CHANCES PUSHING INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND OVERNIGHT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BIGGER SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE DESERT
SW OVER THE NEXT 36 HRS OR SO AND WILL KEEP THE WESTERN US UNDER A
TROF, AMPLIFYING THE PATTERN AND SETTING UP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR
THE MIDWEST. MANY SHORTWAVES TRACKING AROUND THE TROF AND UP INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WORKWEEK. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS KEEP HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY THREAT IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS SLOWLY DRIVEN OUT OF THE REGION.
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE THE BEST
FOCUS AND THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY DIFFUSE WITH THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM WITH A PRETTY STUBBORN WARM
AIRMASS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SFC KEEPING WAA GOING EVEN WITH
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AT LEAST UNTIL THE TROF FINALLY
EXITS NE AND ALLOWS COOLER TEMPS BACK INTO THE REGION BY DAY7/DAY 8.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
EASTERN PORTION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL IL HAS BEGUN TO
MOVE NORTHWARD AND IS NOW JUST SOUTH OF KPIA-KMQB WITH FOG
DISSIPATING OR ABSENT FROM ALL CENTRAL IL TAF SITES EXCEPT KPIA.
KPIA WILL CONTINUE IFR VSBY UNTIL 13-14Z AS A RESULT BEFORE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL IL. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD WITH S
WINDS 6-12 KTS DEVELOPING. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED
FROM 18Z-00Z ALONG WITH SCT CLOUD COVER AROUND 5 KFT AGL.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...ONTON
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...ONTON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
655 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR MACOMB TO PARIS ACROSS CENTRAL IL
THIS MORNING AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY ARE RESULTING IN AREAS OF FOG...WITH OCCASIONAL DENSE
FOG OBSERVATIONS IN BLOOMINGTON...AND LASALLE AND PONTIAC TO THE
NORTH. 7Z HRRR MODEL IS DEPICTING WELL THE DENSE AREA AND HAVE
INCORPORATED PATCHY DENSE FOG IN GRIDS ACCORDING TO THIS. FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY AROUND 8 AM WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
FOR TODAY...A 500 MB RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED NW-SE ACROSS IL WILL SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD WHILE A SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EJECTS
NORTHEASTWARD JUST WEST OF ILLINOIS. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN SIDE OF ILLINOIS BUT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE CENTRAL IL FORECAST AREA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR CENTRAL IL INDICATE A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND
DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS WHICH SHOULD HELP TO PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH ENOUGH MOISTURE BELOW THE DRY SUBSIDENT LAYER
COULD BRING SCATTERED TO BROKEN SHALLOW CUMULUS. SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWARD WITH
WARM AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING HIGHS INTO THE MID OR UPPER 80S
ACROSS CENTRAL IL. SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHERLY 8-15 MPH
WITH GUSTS 12-20 MPH...THE STRONGER WINDS TOWARD THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE STATE.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
BRIEF DRY PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE
WARM TEMPS. STORM/WAVE OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL TRACK
NORTH/NORTHEAST BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOSTLY STAY TO THE WEST...BUT
SOME PRECIP CHANCES SNEAKING INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON THURSDAY,
WITH THE BEST CHANCES PUSHING INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND OVERNIGHT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BIGGER SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE DESERT
SW OVER THE NEXT 36 HRS OR SO AND WILL KEEP THE WESTERN US UNDER A
TROF, AMPLIFYING THE PATTERN AND SETTING UP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR
THE MIDWEST. MANY SHORTWAVES TRACKING AROUND THE TROF AND UP INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WORKWEEK. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS KEEP HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY THREAT IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS SLOWLY DRIVEN OUT OF THE REGION.
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE THE BEST
FOCUS AND THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY DIFFUSE WITH THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM WITH A PRETTY STUBBORN WARM
AIRMASS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SFC KEEPING WAA GOING EVEN WITH
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AT LEAST UNTIL THE TROF FINALLY
EXITS NE AND ALLOWS COOLER TEMPS BACK INTO THE REGION BY DAY7/DAY 8.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
EASTERN PORTION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL IL HAS BEGUN TO
MOVE NORTHWARD AND IS NOW JUST SOUTH OF KPIA-KMQB WITH FOG
DISSIPATING OR ABSENT FROM ALL CENTRAL IL TAF SITES EXCEPT KPIA.
KPIA WILL CONTINUE IFR VSBY UNTIL 13-14Z AS A RESULT BEFORE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL IL. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD WITH S
WINDS 6-12 KTS DEVELOPING. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED
FROM 18Z-00Z ALONG WITH SCT CLOUD COVER AROUND 5 KFT AGL.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ONTON
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...ONTON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
324 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR MACOMB TO PARIS ACROSS CENTRAL IL
THIS MORNING AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY ARE RESULTING IN AREAS OF FOG...WITH OCCASIONAL DENSE
FOG OBSERVATIONS IN BLOOMINGTON...AND LASALLE AND PONTIAC TO THE
NORTH. 7Z HRRR MODEL IS DEPICTING WELL THE DENSE AREA AND HAVE
INCORPORATED PATCHY DENSE FOG IN GRIDS ACCORDING TO THIS. FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY AROUND 8 AM WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
FOR TODAY...A 500 MB RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED NW-SE ACROSS IL WILL SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD WHILE A SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EJECTS
NORTHEASTWARD JUST WEST OF ILLINOIS. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN SIDE OF ILLINOIS BUT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE CENTRAL IL FORECAST AREA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR CENTRAL IL INDICATE A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND
DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS WHICH SHOULD HELP TO PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH ENOUGH MOISTURE BELOW THE DRY SUBSIDENT LAYER
COULD BRING SCATTERED TO BROKEN SHALLOW CUMULUS. SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWARD WITH
WARM AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING HIGHS INTO THE MID OR UPPER 80S
ACROSS CENTRAL IL. SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHERLY 8-15 MPH
WITH GUSTS 12-20 MPH...THE STRONGER WINDS TOWARD THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE STATE.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
BRIEF DRY PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE
WARM TEMPS. STORM/WAVE OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL TRACK
NORTH/NORTHEAST BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOSTLY STAY TO THE WEST...BUT
SOME PRECIP CHANCES SNEAKING INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON THURSDAY,
WITH THE BEST CHANCES PUSHING INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND OVERNIGHT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BIGGER SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE DESERT
SW OVER THE NEXT 36 HRS OR SO AND WILL KEEP THE WESTERN US UNDER A
TROF, AMPLIFYING THE PATTERN AND SETTING UP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR
THE MIDWEST. MANY SHORTWAVES TRACKING AROUND THE TROF AND UP INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WORKWEEK. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS KEEP HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY THREAT IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS SLOWLY DRIVEN OUT OF THE REGION.
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE THE BEST
FOCUS AND THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY DIFFUSE WITH THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM WITH A PRETTY STUBBORN WARM
AIRMASS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SFC KEEPING WAA GOING EVEN WITH
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AT LEAST UNTIL THE TROF FINALLY
EXITS NE AND ALLOWS COOLER TEMPS BACK INTO THE REGION BY DAY7/DAY 8.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITTING JUST SOUTH OF I-74 ACROSS THE AREA.
DEWPOINTS ARE POOLING ALONG THIS FRONT AND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS
WAY THROUGH THE NIGHT. NEAR WHERE RAIN OCCURRED THIS EVENING, FOG
HAS DEVELOPED, WITH BMI BEING THE LOWEST AT THIS POINT. MVFR
CONDITIONS AT PIA WITH IFR AT BMI. AWSS AT BMI IS REPORTING A CIG
AT 2OO FT, BUT REMARKS SAYS IT IS SCATTERED SOMETIMES, SO WILL
HAVE TEMPO BROKEN IN THE TAF AT ISSUANCE TIME. CMI COULD SEE SOME
FOG SINCE THE FRONT IS SOUTH OF THE TAF SITE. TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD
AT CMI IS 6DEG SO WILL JUST HAVE A TEMPO FOR LOWER VIS IN THE
TAFS. SPI AND DEC SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND POOLING
MOISTURE SO EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THERE OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TOMORROW MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH OF I-74.
PIA/BMI/CMI WINDS WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY NORTH OF THE FRONT. SPI
AND DEC WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT. WITH THE FRONT LIFTING
NORTH TOMORROW, ALL SITES WILL HAVE SOUTHERLY WINDS TOMORROW.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ONTON
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...AUTEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
136 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
SKIES WILL BE SUNNY FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE REGION. SKIES
WILL BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY FOR THE NORTHERN PART WHILE HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE
MIDDLE 80S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. A WEAK FRONT IN THE AREA WILL
GIVE THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
PREVIOUS FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE ON
UPDATE. MOVED TIMING OF SHOWERS UP A FEW HOURS AS WK LOW LEVEL
ISENT LIFT AND MOIST AIRMASS HAS ALREADY RESULTED IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER NWRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
SGFNT VSBY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG HAVE ENDED EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE AREA AND SHOULD BE IMPROVING THERE
SHORTLY AS DIURNAL HEATING CONTS SO HAVE ALLOWED DENSE FOG
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
SHORT TERM ISSUES DEAL WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING FOLLOWED
BY PCPN CHANCES LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED WELL SOUTH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA AND HAS BECOME
QUITE DIFFUSE OVERNIGHT. GOES FOG/LOW CLOUD PRODUCT SHOWING
EXTENSIVE SHIELD OF STRATUS NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND COVERING ALL
BUT EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA. 07Z SFC OBSERVATIONS
CONFIRM WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY UNDER 1KFT AND VISIBILITIES AT OR
BELOW 3SM. HIRES MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SHARP LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND
A FEW AMDAR SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS. SHALLOW STRATUS DECK SEEMS TO BE
KEEPING VISIBILITIES IN THE 1-3SM RANGE WITH ONLY A SLOW DROP SO
FAR. THERE ARE BREAKS WITHIN THE STRATUS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE IF/WHERE THESE CLOUD FREE AREAS PERSIST.
WITH WEAK FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER MIXING WILL BE SLOW TODAY AND
WILL NEED TO RELY MORE ON DIURNAL HEATING TO AID AND EVENTUALLY
ERODE CLOUD DECK FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THIS MAY TAKE SOME EXTRA TIME
AND DELAY CLEARING UNTIL LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE FAR
NORTH AS RUC13 LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS DO NOT MIX UNTIL CLOSER TO 18Z.
WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE SLOWED CLEARING AND KEPT NORTHERN AREAS
MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY AS RAPID
WARMING EXPECTED ONCE SKIES CLEAR. SOUTHERN AREAS STILL EXPECTED TO
PUSH MID 80S WHILE NORTHERN AREAS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER
70S NOW WITH DELAYED CLEARING. 00Z MOS GUIDANCE STRUGGLING AS WELL
WITH LARGE DISPARITY BETWEEN HIGHER RESOLUTION MET GUIDANCE BEING
MUCH COOLER THAN MAV OVER NORTHERN AREAS WHILE VERY CLOSE IN THE
SOUTH.
NEXT ISSUE DEALS WITH LOW CHANCES FOR ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
RATHER STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH RETREATING
CLOUD DECK AND DIFFUSE FRONT MIXING NORTH. NAM 4KM DEVELOPS JUST A
FEW ISOLATED CELLS LATE AFTERNOON. LOWER RESOLUTION VERSION DEVELOPS
VERY LITTLE. MOST OTHER GUIDANCE PACKAGES REMAIN SPLIT. MODEST CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1K J/KG EXPECTED BUT SHEAR PROFILES ARE
UNIMPRESSIVE GIVEN WEAK FLOW THROUGH COLUMN. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
REMAIN WARRANTED FOR ANY POP UP DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY AFTER ABOUT 20Z
AND SIMILAR TO TUE NIGHT COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED TSRA LAST THROUGH
ABOUT 03Z FAR NORTH.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE
START OF THE PERIOD...WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
PESKY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE AREA AND FALLING
APART (IF NOT ALREADY GONE). UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH WASHINGTON STATE WILL DEEPEN AND CUT OFF
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EAST TO THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL RIPPLES WILL EDGE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE REGION STARTING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A SURFACE FRONT DRIFTING SLOWLY SE INTO THE AREA.
THESE...COMBINED WITH A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SEVERAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE THE MAIN UPPER LOW FINALLY EJECTS AND LIFTS NE AWAY
FROM THE REGION. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS APPEARS TO BE
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LEAD WAVE AND MONDAY WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW. IN
TERMS OF TEMPS THE REST OF THE PERIOD MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR
INTO THE AREA THE FRONT GETS BEFORE STALLING OUT. LIKELY WILL END
UP A TIGHT GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE INTO THE WEEKEND UNTIL THE MAIN
SYSTEM PASSES. RAN WITH SUPERBLEND OF MODELS BEING THE BEST
COMPROMISE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH STOUT
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD. OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY BUT CHANCES MUCH TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN TAF. PATCHY
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING. SETUP IS NOT AS
FAVORABLE AS THIS MORNING WITH HIGHER TEMPS OVERNIGHT AND LOWER
DEWPOINTS. STILL...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST A
PERIOD OF IFR (OR LOWER) CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT KFWA GIVEN
LIGHT WINDS AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. CHANCES AT KSBN ARE
LOWER GIVEN SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS AND LESS FAVORABLE MOISTURE
PROFILES. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL MIX OUT QUICKLY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY TOMORROW.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...AGD
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1109 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
SKIES WILL BE SUNNY FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE REGION. SKIES
WILL BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY FOR THE NORTHERN PART WHILE HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE
MIDDLE 80S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. A WEAK FRONT IN THE AREA WILL
GIVE THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
PREVIOUS FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE ON
UPDATE. MOVED TIMING OF SHOWERS UP A FEW HOURS AS WK LOW LEVEL
ISENT LIFT AND MOIST AIRMASS HAS ALREADY RESULTED IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER NWRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
SGFNT VSBY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG HAVE ENDED EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE AREA AND SHOULD BE IMPROVING THERE
SHORTLY AS DIURNAL HEATING CONTS SO HAVE ALLOWED DENSE FOG
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
SHORT TERM ISSUES DEAL WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING FOLLOWED
BY PCPN CHANCES LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED WELL SOUTH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA AND HAS BECOME
QUITE DIFFUSE OVERNIGHT. GOES FOG/LOW CLOUD PRODUCT SHOWING
EXTENSIVE SHIELD OF STRATUS NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND COVERING ALL
BUT EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA. 07Z SFC OBSERVATIONS
CONFIRM WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY UNDER 1KFT AND VISIBILITIES AT OR
BELOW 3SM. HIRES MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SHARP LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND
A FEW AMDAR SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS. SHALLOW STRATUS DECK SEEMS TO BE
KEEPING VISIBILITIES IN THE 1-3SM RANGE WITH ONLY A SLOW DROP SO
FAR. THERE ARE BREAKS WITHIN THE STRATUS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE IF/WHERE THESE CLOUD FREE AREAS PERSIST.
WITH WEAK FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER MIXING WILL BE SLOW TODAY AND
WILL NEED TO RELY MORE ON DIURNAL HEATING TO AID AND EVENTUALLY
ERODE CLOUD DECK FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THIS MAY TAKE SOME EXTRA TIME
AND DELAY CLEARING UNTIL LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE FAR
NORTH AS RUC13 LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS DO NOT MIX UNTIL CLOSER TO 18Z.
WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE SLOWED CLEARING AND KEPT NORTHERN AREAS
MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY AS RAPID
WARMING EXPECTED ONCE SKIES CLEAR. SOUTHERN AREAS STILL EXPECTED TO
PUSH MID 80S WHILE NORTHERN AREAS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER
70S NOW WITH DELAYED CLEARING. 00Z MOS GUIDANCE STRUGGLING AS WELL
WITH LARGE DISPARITY BETWEEN HIGHER RESOLUTION MET GUIDANCE BEING
MUCH COOLER THAN MAV OVER NORTHERN AREAS WHILE VERY CLOSE IN THE
SOUTH.
NEXT ISSUE DEALS WITH LOW CHANCES FOR ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
RATHER STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH RETREATING
CLOUD DECK AND DIFFUSE FRONT MIXING NORTH. NAM 4KM DEVELOPS JUST A
FEW ISOLATED CELLS LATE AFTERNOON. LOWER RESOLUTION VERSION DEVELOPS
VERY LITTLE. MOST OTHER GUIDANCE PACKAGES REMAIN SPLIT. MODEST CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1K J/KG EXPECTED BUT SHEAR PROFILES ARE
UNIMPRESSIVE GIVEN WEAK FLOW THROUGH COLUMN. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
REMAIN WARRANTED FOR ANY POP UP DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY AFTER ABOUT 20Z
AND SIMILAR TO TUE NIGHT COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED TSRA LAST THROUGH
ABOUT 03Z FAR NORTH.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE
START OF THE PERIOD...WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
PESKY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE AREA AND FALLING
APART (IF NOT ALREADY GONE). UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH WASHINGTON STATE WILL DEEPEN AND CUT OFF
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EAST TO THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL RIPPLES WILL EDGE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE REGION STARTING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A SURFACE FRONT DRIFTING SLOWLY SE INTO THE AREA.
THESE...COMBINED WITH A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SEVERAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE THE MAIN UPPER LOW FINALLY EJECTS AND LIFTS NE AWAY
FROM THE REGION. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS APPEARS TO BE
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LEAD WAVE AND MONDAY WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW. IN
TERMS OF TEMPS THE REST OF THE PERIOD MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR
INTO THE AREA THE FRONT GETS BEFORE STALLING OUT. LIKELY WILL END
UP A TIGHT GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE INTO THE WEEKEND UNTIL THE MAIN
SYSTEM PASSES. RAN WITH SUPERBLEND OF MODELS BEING THE BEST
COMPROMISE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
DENSE FOG WHICH FORMED OVER NW OHIO HAS SPREAD WESTWARD AND
IMPACTING KFWA WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS. WIND FIELD REMAINS LIGHT
THIS MORNING AND EXPECT DENSE FOG TO PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS
BEFORE WEAK MIXING BEGINS AND STALLED FRONT OVER CENTRAL INDIANA
BEGINS TO MIX NORTH AND AIDS IN EROSION OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
THIS SHOULD OCCUR MID TO LATE MORNING. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW FOR
INCLUSION WITHIN TERMINAL. SKIES CLEAR THIS EVENING. COULD BE SOME
FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT DEPENDING ON LOCATION OF FRONT AND
HOW MUCH MIXING WE SEE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW KEPT LATER PORTION
OF TAFS VFR.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...LASHLEY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1008 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
A STALLED FRONT OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NORTH
TODAY. CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR A THUNDERSTORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY FAR NORTH AND
NORTHEAST INDIANA...LOWER MICHIGAN...AND FAR NORTHWEST OHIO. HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 70S NEAR THE TRI-STATE REGION TO
THE MIDDLE 80S OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA. SKIES WILL BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
PREVIOUS FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE ON
UPDATE. MOVED TIMING OF SHOWERS UP A FEW HOURS AS WK LOW LEVEL
ISENT LIFT AND MOIST AIRMASS HAS ALREADY RESULTED IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER NWRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
SGFNT VSBY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG HAVE ENDED EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE AREA AND SHOULD BE IMPROVING THERE
SHORTLY AS DIURNAL HEATING CONTS SO HAVE ALLOWED DENSE FOG
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
SHORT TERM ISSUES DEAL WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING FOLLOWED
BY PCPN CHANCES LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED WELL SOUTH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA AND HAS BECOME
QUITE DIFFUSE OVERNIGHT. GOES FOG/LOW CLOUD PRODUCT SHOWING
EXTENSIVE SHIELD OF STRATUS NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND COVERING ALL
BUT EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA. 07Z SFC OBSERVATIONS
CONFIRM WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY UNDER 1KFT AND VISIBILITIES AT OR
BELOW 3SM. HIRES MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SHARP LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND
A FEW AMDAR SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS. SHALLOW STRATUS DECK SEEMS TO BE
KEEPING VISIBILITIES IN THE 1-3SM RANGE WITH ONLY A SLOW DROP SO
FAR. THERE ARE BREAKS WITHIN THE STRATUS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE IF/WHERE THESE CLOUD FREE AREAS PERSIST.
WITH WEAK FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER MIXING WILL BE SLOW TODAY AND
WILL NEED TO RELY MORE ON DIURNAL HEATING TO AID AND EVENTUALLY
ERODE CLOUD DECK FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THIS MAY TAKE SOME EXTRA TIME
AND DELAY CLEARING UNTIL LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE FAR
NORTH AS RUC13 LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS DO NOT MIX UNTIL CLOSER TO 18Z.
WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE SLOWED CLEARING AND KEPT NORTHERN AREAS
MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY AS RAPID
WARMING EXPECTED ONCE SKIES CLEAR. SOUTHERN AREAS STILL EXPECTED TO
PUSH MID 80S WHILE NORTHERN AREAS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER
70S NOW WITH DELAYED CLEARING. 00Z MOS GUIDANCE STRUGGLING AS WELL
WITH LARGE DISPARITY BETWEEN HIGHER RESOLUTION MET GUIDANCE BEING
MUCH COOLER THAN MAV OVER NORTHERN AREAS WHILE VERY CLOSE IN THE
SOUTH.
NEXT ISSUE DEALS WITH LOW CHANCES FOR ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
RATHER STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH RETREATING
CLOUD DECK AND DIFFUSE FRONT MIXING NORTH. NAM 4KM DEVELOPS JUST A
FEW ISOLATED CELLS LATE AFTERNOON. LOWER RESOLUTION VERSION DEVELOPS
VERY LITTLE. MOST OTHER GUIDANCE PACKAGES REMAIN SPLIT. MODEST CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1K J/KG EXPECTED BUT SHEAR PROFILES ARE
UNIMPRESSIVE GIVEN WEAK FLOW THROUGH COLUMN. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
REMAIN WARRANTED FOR ANY POP UP DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY AFTER ABOUT 20Z
AND SIMILAR TO TUE NIGHT COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED TSRA LAST THROUGH
ABOUT 03Z FAR NORTH.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE
START OF THE PERIOD...WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
PESKY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE AREA AND FALLING
APART (IF NOT ALREADY GONE). UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH WASHINGTON STATE WILL DEEPEN AND CUT OFF
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EAST TO THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL RIPPLES WILL EDGE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE REGION STARTING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A SURFACE FRONT DRIFTING SLOWLY SE INTO THE AREA.
THESE...COMBINED WITH A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SEVERAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE THE MAIN UPPER LOW FINALLY EJECTS AND LIFTS NE AWAY
FROM THE REGION. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS APPEARS TO BE
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LEAD WAVE AND MONDAY WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW. IN
TERMS OF TEMPS THE REST OF THE PERIOD MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR
INTO THE AREA THE FRONT GETS BEFORE STALLING OUT. LIKELY WILL END
UP A TIGHT GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE INTO THE WEEKEND UNTIL THE MAIN
SYSTEM PASSES. RAN WITH SUPERBLEND OF MODELS BEING THE BEST
COMPROMISE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
DENSE FOG WHICH FORMED OVER NW OHIO HAS SPREAD WESTWARD AND
IMPACTING KFWA WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS. WIND FIELD REMAINS LIGHT
THIS MORNING AND EXPECT DENSE FOG TO PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS
BEFORE WEAK MIXING BEGINS AND STALLED FRONT OVER CENTRAL INDIANA
BEGINS TO MIX NORTH AND AIDS IN EROSION OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
THIS SHOULD OCCUR MID TO LATE MORNING. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW FOR
INCLUSION WITHIN TERMINAL. SKIES CLEAR THIS EVENING. COULD BE SOME
FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT DEPENDING ON LOCATION OF FRONT AND
HOW MUCH MIXING WE SEE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW KEPT LATER PORTION
OF TAFS VFR.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...LASHLEY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
656 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
A STALLED FRONT OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NORTH
TODAY. CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR A THUNDERSTORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY FAR NORTH AND
NORTHEAST INDIANA...LOWER MICHIGAN...AND FAR NORTHWEST OHIO. HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 70S NEAR THE TRI-STATE REGION TO
THE MIDDLE 80S OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA. SKIES WILL BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
SHORT TERM ISSUES DEAL WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING FOLLOWED
BY PCPN CHANCES LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED WELL SOUTH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA AND HAS BECOME
QUITE DIFFUSE OVERNIGHT. GOES FOG/LOW CLOUD PRODUCT SHOWING
EXTENSIVE SHIELD OF STRATUS NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND COVERING ALL
BUT EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA. 07Z SFC OBSERVATIONS
CONFIRM WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY UNDER 1KFT AND VISIBILITIES AT OR
BELOW 3SM. HIRES MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SHARP LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND
A FEW AMDAR SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS. SHALLOW STRATUS DECK SEEMS TO BE
KEEPING VISIBILITIES IN THE 1-3SM RANGE WITH ONLY A SLOW DROP SO
FAR. THERE ARE BREAKS WITHIN THE STRATUS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE IF/WHERE THESE CLOUD FREE AREAS PERSIST.
WITH WEAK FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER MIXING WILL BE SLOW TODAY AND
WILL NEED TO RELY MORE ON DIURNAL HEATING TO AID AND EVENTUALLY
ERODE CLOUD DECK FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THIS MAY TAKE SOME EXTRA TIME
AND DELAY CLEARING UNTIL LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE FAR
NORTH AS RUC13 LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS DO NOT MIX UNTIL CLOSER TO 18Z.
WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE SLOWED CLEARING AND KEPT NORTHERN AREAS
MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY AS RAPID
WARMING EXPECTED ONCE SKIES CLEAR. SOUTHERN AREAS STILL EXPECTED TO
PUSH MID 80S WHILE NORTHERN AREAS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER
70S NOW WITH DELAYED CLEARING. 00Z MOS GUIDANCE STRUGGLING AS WELL
WITH LARGE DISPARITY BETWEEN HIGHER RESOLUTION MET GUIDANCE BEING
MUCH COOLER THAN MAV OVER NORTHERN AREAS WHILE VERY CLOSE IN THE
SOUTH.
NEXT ISSUE DEALS WITH LOW CHANCES FOR ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
RATHER STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH RETREATING
CLOUD DECK AND DIFFUSE FRONT MIXING NORTH. NAM 4KM DEVELOPS JUST A
FEW ISOLATED CELLS LATE AFTERNOON. LOWER RESOLUTION VERSION DEVELOPS
VERY LITTLE. MOST OTHER GUIDANCE PACKAGES REMAIN SPLIT. MODEST CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1K J/KG EXPECTED BUT SHEAR PROFILES ARE
UNIMPRESSIVE GIVEN WEAK FLOW THROUGH COLUMN. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
REMAIN WARRANTED FOR ANY POP UP DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY AFTER ABOUT 20Z
AND SIMILAR TO TUE NIGHT COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED TSRA LAST THROUGH
ABOUT 03Z FAR NORTH.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE
START OF THE PERIOD...WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
PESKY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE AREA AND FALLING
APART (IF NOT ALREADY GONE). UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH WASHINGTON STATE WILL DEEPEN AND CUT OFF
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EAST TO THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL RIPPLES WILL EDGE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE REGION STARTING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A SURFACE FRONT DRIFTING SLOWLY SE INTO THE AREA.
THESE...COMBINED WITH A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SEVERAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE THE MAIN UPPER LOW FINALLY EJECTS AND LIFTS NE AWAY
FROM THE REGION. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS APPEARS TO BE
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LEAD WAVE AND MONDAY WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW. IN
TERMS OF TEMPS THE REST OF THE PERIOD MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR
INTO THE AREA THE FRONT GETS BEFORE STALLING OUT. LIKELY WILL END
UP A TIGHT GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE INTO THE WEEKEND UNTIL THE MAIN
SYSTEM PASSES. RAN WITH SUPERBLEND OF MODELS BEING THE BEST
COMPROMISE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
DENSE FOG WHICH FORMED OVER NW OHIO HAS SPREAD WESTWARD AND
IMPACTING KFWA WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS. WIND FIELD REMAINS LIGHT
THIS MORNING AND EXPECT DENSE FOG TO PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS
BEFORE WEAK MIXING BEGINS AND STALLED FRONT OVER CENTRAL INDIANA
BEGINS TO MIX NORTH AND AIDS IN EROSION OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
THIS SHOULD OCCUR MID TO LATE MORNING. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW FOR
INCLUSION WITHIN TERMINAL. SKIES CLEAR THIS EVENING. COULD BE SOME
FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT DEPENDING ON LOCATION OF FRONT AND
HOW MUCH MIXING WE SEE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW KEPT LATER PORTION
OF TAFS VFR.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ006>009-
017-018-025>027-032>034.
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ079>081.
OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-002-
004-005-015-016-024-025.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...LASHLEY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
412 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
A STALLED FRONT OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NORTH
TODAY. CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR A THUNDERSTORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY FAR NORTH AND
NORTHEAST INDIANA...LOWER MICHIGAN...AND FAR NORTHWEST OHIO. HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 70S NEAR THE TRI-STATE REGION TO
THE MIDDLE 80S OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA. SKIES WILL BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
SHORT TERM ISSUES DEAL WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING FOLLOWED
BY PCPN CHANCES LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED WELL SOUTH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA AND HAS BECOME
QUITE DIFFUSE OVERNIGHT. GOES FOG/LOW CLOUD PRODUCT SHOWING
EXTENSIVE SHIELD OF STRATUS NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND COVERING ALL
BUT EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA. 07Z SFC OBSERVATIONS
CONFIRM WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY UNDER 1KFT AND VISIBILITIES AT OR
BELOW 3SM. HIRES MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SHARP LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND
A FEW AMDAR SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS. SHALLOW STRATUS DECK SEEMS TO BE
KEEPING VISIBILITIES IN THE 1-3SM RANGE WITH ONLY A SLOW DROP SO
FAR. THERE ARE BREAKS WITHIN THE STRATUS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE IF/WHERE THESE CLOUD FREE AREAS PERSIST.
WITH WEAK FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER MIXING WILL BE SLOW TODAY AND
WILL NEED TO RELY MORE ON DIURNAL HEATING TO AID AND EVENTUALLY
ERODE CLOUD DECK FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THIS MAY TAKE SOME EXTRA TIME
AND DELAY CLEARING UNTIL LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE FAR
NORTH AS RUC13 LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS DO NOT MIX UNTIL CLOSER TO 18Z.
WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE SLOWED CLEARING AND KEPT NORTHERN AREAS
MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY AS RAPID
WARMING EXPECTED ONCE SKIES CLEAR. SOUTHERN AREAS STILL EXPECTED TO
PUSH MID 80S WHILE NORTHERN AREAS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER
70S NOW WITH DELAYED CLEARING. 00Z MOS GUIDANCE STRUGGLING AS WELL
WITH LARGE DISPARITY BETWEEN HIGHER RESOLUTION MET GUIDANCE BEING
MUCH COOLER THAN MAV OVER NORTHERN AREAS WHILE VERY CLOSE IN THE
SOUTH.
NEXT ISSUE DEALS WITH LOW CHANCES FOR ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
RATHER STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH RETREATING
CLOUD DECK AND DIFFUSE FRONT MIXING NORTH. NAM 4KM DEVELOPS JUST A
FEW ISOLATED CELLS LATE AFTERNOON. LOWER RESOLUTION VERSION DEVELOPS
VERY LITTLE. MOST OTHER GUIDANCE PACKAGES REMAIN SPLIT. MODEST CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1K J/KG EXPECTED BUT SHEAR PROFILES ARE
UNIMPRESSIVE GIVEN WEAK FLOW THROUGH COLUMN. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
REMAIN WARRANTED FOR ANY POP UP DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY AFTER ABOUT 20Z
AND SIMILAR TO TUE NIGHT COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED TSRA LAST THROUGH
ABOUT 03Z FAR NORTH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE
START OF THE PERIOD...WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
PESKY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE AREA AND FALLING
APART (IF NOT ALREADY GONE). UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH WASHINGTON STATE WILL DEEPEN AND CUT OFF
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EAST TO THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL RIPPLES WILL EDGE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE REGION STARTING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A SURFACE FRONT DRIFTING SLOWLY SE INTO THE AREA.
THESE...COMBINED WITH A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SEVERAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE THE MAIN UPPER LOW FINALLY EJECTS AND LIFTS NE AWAY
FROM THE REGION. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS APPEARS TO BE
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LEAD WAVE AND MONDAY WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW. IN
TERMS OF TEMPS THE REST OF THE PERIOD MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR
INTO THE AREA THE FRONT GETS BEFORE STALLING OUT. LIKELY WILL END
UP A TIGHT GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE INTO THE WEEKEND UNTIL THE MAIN
SYSTEM PASSES. RAN WITH SUPERBLEND OF MODELS BEING THE BEST
COMPROMISE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED SOUTHWARD TO CENTRAL INDIANA AND
BECOME DIFFUSE. LARGE AREA OF IFRLIFR CIGS AND VIS HAVE EXPANDED
ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. KSBN ALREADY IFR AND KFWA IS SURROUNDED
BY IFR AT 0530Z. PER LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE SOUNDINGS...STRONG LOW
LEVEL INVERSION TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT FLOW SO EXPECT
THESE CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AND CONTINUE EXPANDING. EARLIER
RAINFALL HAS COOLED AND STABILIZED AIR NORTH OF FRONT AND WILL
MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR THIS BOUNDARY TO MOVE NORTH OVERNIGHT. LATEST MODEL
SOLUTIONS HAVE SLOWED THIS NORTHWARD PROGRESSION AND INDICATE WEAK
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO MIX NORTH MID TO LATE MORNING. HELD ONTO
LOWER END CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE RAPID
IMPROVEMENT EARLY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE LATE WED AFTN
BUT TOO LOW OF A PROBABILITY FOR TAF INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...LASHLEY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1211 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA IN AREA NORTH OF DAYTIME
SURFACE BOUNDARY. SHORT TERM HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FOG
LINGERING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED READINGS ACROSS THE
NORTH DOWNWARD AS WARMER AIRMASS NEVER QUITE MADE IT INTO NORTHERN
IOWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA AND HAS NOT
MOVED MUCH AT ALL TODAY. IT MADE A VERY SLOW PROGRESSION NORTHWARD
AND CURRENTLY SITS JUST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20...VERSUS INTERSTATE 80
THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING FADED AS IT
TREKKED NORTHWARD AND AWAY FROM WHAT LITTLE LIFT...MAINLY WAA
OVER THE BOUNDARY...REMAINED. CLOUD COVER THAT LINGERED WELL INTO
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA PREVENTED SBCAPE VALUES FROM
SOARING...BUT HAVE REBOUNDED TO 1500-2000 J/KG WITH NIL CIN ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IOWA. AREAS THAT SAW SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY
REACH THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S...AND IS
BEING REALIZED NOW AS SOME WEAK CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FIRING UP
IN SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA AND WEST OF FORT DODGE. WEAK
SHEAR...GENERALLY 20KTS OR LESS...AND NO CAP WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS PULSE STORMS THAT WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL AS THEY
FIGHT FOR ENERGY. THE HRRR APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION ON CURRENT CONVECTION AND HAS ALL OF IT GONE BY 03Z WITH
THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT LIFTING MECHANISM OVER NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLED TO REACH DAYTIME HIGHS WITH THICK...AND
GENERALLY LOW...CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN IOWA. AS A RESULT MANY
LOCATIONS STILL SIT IN THE UPPER 50S. WITH THAT IN MIND...HAVE
DROPPED LOWS ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES SINCE DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY HIGH AND STOP ANY CRASHING TEMPS. FOG MAY BE OF CONCERN
ACROSS THE NORTH AS WELL...BUT MAY BE LIMITED WITH WINDS AROUND
10KTS. SITES THAT SEE WINDS DROP A BIT MAY SEE PERIODS OF FOG.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015
GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW ACROSS IOWA AND THE MIDWEST
WILL RESULT IN AN ACTIVE AND FAIRLY WET WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL BE PUNCTUATED BY TWO FAIRLY ROBUST
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND AN INTERMEDIARY PERIOD OF SUBTLE
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
THE FIRST BIG SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES IN THE FORM OF A DEEP OPEN WAVE...AND WILL MOVE UP OVER
OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE A LARGE
CLOSED 500 MB LOW CURRENTLY MOVING ASHORE OVER WASHINGTON/BRITISH
COLUMBIA WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC U.S.
COAST...REACHING NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER...AS THE FIRST SYSTEM DEPARTS QUICKLY TO OUR NORTHEAST
AND THE SECOND SYSTEM DIGS IN AND DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
IT WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER IOWA...THROUGH WHICH
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE AT THE END OF THIS WEEK. FINALLY...THE
LARGE SOUTHWEST U.S. LOW WILL EJECT UP ACROSS THE MIDWEST SOMETIME
AROUND SUNDAY.
AS THE LEADING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES UP INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY IT WILL PUSH A LARGE REGION OF WARM AIR AND THETA E
ADVECTION UP ACROSS IOWA. WITHIN THIS REGION WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER NEBRASKA AND KANSAS
TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY FADE AS THEY TRANSLATE ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR MOST
OF THE DAY...HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS NOT
HIGH AS IT APPEARS THAT IN WAKE OF THE INITIAL BAND OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION THERE MAY BE LITTLE TO FORCE TRAILING CONVECTION AND WE
COULD SEE A LULL SIMILAR TO TODAY. IN ANY EVENT...WHILE THERE IS
SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...NEARLY
UNIFORM LOW LEVEL WINDS AND A LACK OF ANY KIND OF FOCUS MECHANISM
LEAD TO A LOW RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WHICH IS WELL OUTLINED BY
SPC. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT ANOTHER EXPANSION OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET ON THE EASTERN
FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...BUT THIS ACTIVITY WILL
MOSTLY BE TO OUR WEST ACROSS NEBRASKA...SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHWESTERN IOWA AND ONCE AGAIN WITH A LOW SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
IN OUR AREA. FORECAST POPS HAVE BEEN TRENDED TOWARD THIS DIRECTION
AND TIMING.
POTENTIALLY THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD FOR OUR AREA WILL COME ON
THURSDAY. IT APPEARS THAT ONE OR TWO SHORTWAVES MOVING OVERHEAD
WILL PUSH A SYNOPTIC SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY ACROSS OUR AREA ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...AT PEAK HEATING TIME LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PROGNOSTIC MODELS UNANIMOUSLY
DEPICT A SWATH OF STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY...THOUGH THIS COULD BE TEMPERED BY DEBRIS FROM EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION. WHILE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS SOMEWHAT LESS
IMPRESSIVE DURING THIS TIME...DEEP SHEAR IN THE 25 TO 35 KT RANGE
COUPLED WITH SURFACE CAPE APPROACHING 3000 J/KG WOULD CERTAINLY
INDICATE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING AS WE
PROGRESS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
THE FORECAST FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY IS
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR SOUTHEAST THE ABOVE DISCUSSED SURFACE TROUGH
CAN PROGRESS. IT WILL LIKELY STALL SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
IOWA OR MISSOURI/ILLINOIS...WITH SUBSEQUENT SHORTWAVES MOVING
OVERHEAD AND KICKING OFF ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND NORTHWEST OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER...IT IS UNCLEAR HOW FAR
SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA THE BOUNDARY WILL LIE AND THUS HOW FAR INTO
OUR AREA THESE STORMS MAY PENETRATE. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO MODEL
CONSISTENCY IN THIS AREA...AND FOR NOW HAVE STUCK TO CHANCE POPS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS DEPICTING A ROUGH CONSENSUS
APPROACH. IN ANY EVENT...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DURING THIS
TIME WILL BE LOW ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
AS STORMS MAY TRAIN ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE.
FINALLY...THE SECOND AND STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DISCUSSED
EARLIER WILL MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
ENERGETIC NATURE OF THE SYSTEM THERE WILL AGAIN BE A POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER AT THIS RANGE THE CRITICAL DETAILS OF
TRACK AND TIMING AND THUS THE REGION OF MAXIMUM SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL REMAIN VERY UNCLEAR. IN ANY EVENT...IN WAKE OF THIS
WEEKEND SYSTEM IT APPEARS THAT A BRIEF RESPITE OF COOL AND QUIET
WEATHER MAY BE IN STORE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...06/06Z
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
IOWA OVERNIGHT AFFECTING KFOD...KMCW AND KALO WITH AREAS OF DENSE
FOG AND VERY LOW CEILINGS. THIS FOG WILL LIFT QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING RAPIDLY INCREASES. VFR CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY FOR MOST LOCATION FROM MIDDAY FORWARD.
CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO MOVE INTO THE WEST BY AFTERNOON AND
OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH AN
INCREASED THREAT OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT THAT TIME.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BLACK HAWK-
BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CERRO GORDO-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MARSHALL-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-SAC-STORY-TAMA-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.
&&
$$
UPDATE...COGIL
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...COGIL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
630 PM CDT Thu May 7 2015
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 405 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015
Challenging forecast again tonight with somewhat disorganized
convection this evening and overnight. Band of stronger
thunderstorms forming in weak convergence and max instability axis
from central KS to southeast Nebraska. 0-6 km bulk shear in that
area in the 30 kt range while 0-1 km shear is weak. Storms could
display some organization with hail and wind the main severe
threats. Very heavy rain may also be a concern with slow storm
movement and the potential for some training. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms in east central KS in an area of weak isentropic lift
and have persisted for awhile today and are not going away by late
afternoon. RAP and last few HRRR runs have done alright with
development along boundary/instability axis and have this area
persist and then move southeast overnight. Heavy rain will be the
main threat later tonight.
Challenge for Friday is how much remnant showers/storms will occur
in the morning. Believe best chances of persistence into the
morning will be in east central Kansas. Several models are then
supportive of a shortwave impulse coming out of the southwest moving
into forecast area around early evening on Friday.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 405 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015
By Friday evening severe convection will form along the dry line
across far southwest KS. That area of convection will likely expand
in coverage as it moves northeastward through the overnight hours.
At the surface a warm front will begin to lift back northward into
the day Saturday. Convection looks to generally track along this
front passing through most of southern KS. Lapse rates decrease
during the evening hours as mid to upper 60 dewpoints spread into
the southern half of the forecast area. This places cape values in
the 1500-2500 j/kg valid at 00Z. Models agree that the cape will
decrease, but remains somewhat modest as the deep layer shear
increases to around 35 kts. The NAM is the most aggressive with an
increasing low level jet developing over southern KS as the storms
approach the area. Given the parameters in place strong to severe
storms are possible. The models are fairly consistent in bringing a
decent amount of QPF through the area by 12Z Sat. Flooding will
definitely be a concern especially given the recent rainfall and
saturated ground at some locations. There is a chance for a dry
period during the day Sat before the next round associated with the
main mid level low ejecting out of the Rockies. The chance for
severe storms overnight Saturday is greater across the area given
the dry line will be further east into central KS. Also, the deep
layer shear looks to be closer to 50 kts and the cape remains as
high as 2000 j/kg. Low level jet increases again leading to wind
profile favorable for supercells and possibly tornadoes. This threat
may diminish during the early morning hours as depicted by the NAM,
which barely brings QPF into the area overnight. The dry line
continues eastward as the main mid level low lifts through NE and
SD. By the time the atmosphere destabilizes the dry line will be
located somewhere in far eastern KS where storms are likely to form.
The vertical wind profile appears to be more unidirectional out of
the southwest, which is more parallel to the boundary possibly
leading to more cell interaction. So discrete supercells initially
may quickly transition into a cluster or line, and there is plenty
of cape and deep layer shear for these storms to be severe Sun
afternoon.
The upper level system finally begins to lift northeast late Sunday
into Monday and becomes and open wave by Tuesday over the Upper
Mississippi Valley. Dry and stable conditions are left in its wake,
which will be very needed by this point as the area needs to dry out
a bit before the next system develops. The upper levels will
transition to a more zonal flow pattern over the Central Plains.
Meanwhile, the next trough will begin to set up over the Western
CONUS. At this point, it could be a similar upper level pattern
developing as has recently been in place. However, at this point,
it doesn`t appear moisture recovery, necessary for as wet of a
pattern, will be in place at least through Thursday night. A quick
upper level shortwave may be ejected out of the Southern Rockies in
the afternoon time frame on Wednesday and possibly interact with a
weak warm boundary near the KS/NE border. There could be some
isolated convection flare up, but at this point it doesn`t appear to
be too noteworthy of an event. Will have to stay tuned as this is
too far out to have much confidence at this point in how exactly it
will play out.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur tonight at the TAF
sites. Late tonight toward morning, a cold front should push
through decreasing the chances for TSRA. MVFR or IFR conditions
may prevail with any of the thundershowers, and there is the
possibility of MVFR stratus behind the storms Friday morning.
Ceilings should rise through the afternoon with the next sig
chance of thunderstorms Friday evening.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GDP
LONG TERM...Drake/Sanders
AVIATION...GDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1255 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST IS THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING: WHERE EXACTLY THE THREATS ARE MOST
SIGNIFICANT, WHAT THOSE THREATS WILL BE, AND JUST HOW THIS WILL ALL
UNFOLD.
OVERNIGHT WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW THE CENTER OF A
RATHER AMORPHOUS UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH AT LEAST A
COUPLE SMALLER EMBEDDED MESOSCALE VORTICES ROTATING ABOUT A COMMON
LARGER CENTER. THE SOUTHERNMOST OF THESE APPEARED TO BE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AS OF 0830 UTC AND CONTINUED TO LIFT SLOWLY
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. MID LEVEL DRYING WAS
OCCURRING TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THIS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
PRECIPITATION HAD PRETTY MUCH CLEARED THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION,
HAVING MOVED OFF INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. A SURFACE
LOW WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO AS A
DRYLINE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE SOUTHWESTERLY
MOMENTUM IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AND
TOWARD MIDDAY...WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE ADVANCEMENT OF WARM AIR
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MOIST AXIS. THE MOIST AXIS WILL RESIDE
ROUGHLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE AS A THERMAL RIDGE NOSES
TOWARD THE MOIST AXIS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...MOST PRONOUNCED NORTH
OF DODGE CITY UP TOWARD WAKEENEY. THIS WILL BE THE REGION MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO VIGOROUS SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AFTER
ABOUT 2000 UTC (3PM CDT). FOLLOWING THE NSSL VERSION OF THE WRF-
ARW...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BLOSSOM ALONG OR VERY NEAR THE HIGHWAY 283
CORRIDOR MAINLY NORTH OF DODGE CITY UP TO WAKEENEY...AND QUICKLY
BECOME SEVERE AS ONE OR TWO STORMS EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE
ADEQUATE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 35-40 KNOTS. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR LOOKS
REALLY GOOD WITH NEARLY 90 DEGREES OF TURNING THROUGH THE LAYER.
SURFACE-BASED CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG WILL ADVANCE NORTHWARD BY
LATE AFTERNOON, AND IN COMBINATION WITH ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
FOR ROTATING CONVECTION, VERY LARGE HAIL LOOKS LIKE A VERY GOOD BET
WITH UNINTERRUPTED SUPERCELLS, WITH MAXIMUM HAIL SIZE AROUND TENNIS
BALLS POSSIBLE.
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE CONVECTION WILL
EVOLVE TOWARD SUNSET. THERE IS GREAT CONCERN THAT IF A SUPERCELL CAN
THRIVE THROUGH SUNSET...OR IF A NEW SUPERCELL DEVELOPS FARTHER SOUTH
TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF UNINTERRUPTED INFLOW...THAT TORNADOES WILL
OCCUR. THE 0-1KM AGL NEAR SURFACE SHEAR WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
IN THE 00-03Z TIME FRAME THIS EVENING. STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IN
THIS LAYER IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2 ALONG WITH SBCAPE OF 2500 J/KG IS
A DANGEROUS COMBINATION, AND MOST CERTAINLY SUPPORTS DANGEROUS
TORNADOES GIVEN AN ESTABLISHED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM. THIS IS A
THREAT WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY, AND HOPEFULLY HOURLY
3KM HRRR MODEL TRENDS WILL HELP THE DAY SHIFT IN ASSESSING THIS
THREAT FURTHER. BY MID TO LATE EVENING, THIS THREAT WILL SHIFT EAST
TOWARD THE WFO ICT AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (EAST OF ELLIS, RUSH,
STAFFORD, PRATT, BARBER COUNTIES) AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE DOWN INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THEN EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND CENTRAL ROCKIES SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL
SPIN AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND
WESTERN KANSAS WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS. A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIODS THEN RETROGRADE
BACK WEST IN THE EVENING. THE AFOREMENTIONED DRYLINE AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE THE MAIN FOCAL POINT WHERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
FROM IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MODERATELY
UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIODS WITH AMPLE SHEAR IN THE LOW
TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ERGO, ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.
A FEW TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE CWA SATURDAY
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. ONCE AGAIN, A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND ISOLATED TORNADOES BEING THE
MAIN CONCERN. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG
WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS. THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH A DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS AT THE SURFACE.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS THURSDAY ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 80
DEGREES THEN RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 70 DEGREES SATURDAY WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER TO UPPER 50S
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY ARE
FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
WHERE THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TO
UPPER 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE COLD FRONT ISN`T
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM AROUND 40 DEGREES ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER
TO UPPER 40S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS MONDAY LOOK TO
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S THEN REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 70S TUESDAY.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN SOUTH
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT KHYS BETWEEN 20Z AND
01Z AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE AND MOVE EAST. IFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KDDC AFTER 08Z AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE EDGES WESTWARD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 81 59 81 58 / 10 10 50 60
GCK 83 53 80 55 / 10 10 40 40
EHA 82 51 80 52 / 10 10 30 30
LBL 82 54 82 57 / 10 10 40 50
HYS 75 58 78 54 / 50 50 40 70
P28 77 63 81 61 / 50 40 60 70
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
628 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST IS THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING: WHERE EXACTLY THE THREATS ARE MOST
SIGNIFICANT, WHAT THOSE THREATS WILL BE, AND JUST HOW THIS WILL ALL
UNFOLD.
OVERNIGHT WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW THE CENTER OF A
RATHER AMORPHOUS UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH AT LEAST A
COUPLE SMALLER EMBEDDED MESOSCALE VORTICES ROTATING ABOUT A COMMON
LARGER CENTER. THE SOUTHERNMOST OF THESE APPEARED TO BE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AS OF 0830 UTC AND CONTINUED TO LIFT SLOWLY
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. MID LEVEL DRYING WAS
OCCURRING TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THIS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
PRECIPITATION HAD PRETTY MUCH CLEARED THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION,
HAVING MOVED OFF INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. A SURFACE
LOW WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO AS A
DRYLINE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE SOUTHWESTERLY
MOMENTUM IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AND
TOWARD MIDDAY...WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE ADVANCEMENT OF WARM AIR
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MOIST AXIS. THE MOIST AXIS WILL RESIDE
ROUGHLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE AS A THERMAL RIDGE NOSES
TOWARD THE MOIST AXIS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...MOST PRONOUNCED NORTH
OF DODGE CITY UP TOWARD WAKEENEY. THIS WILL BE THE REGION MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO VIGOROUS SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AFTER
ABOUT 2000 UTC (3PM CDT). FOLLOWING THE NSSL VERSION OF THE WRF-
ARW...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BLOSSOM ALONG OR VERY NEAR THE HIGHWAY 283
CORRIDOR MAINLY NORTH OF DODGE CITY UP TO WAKEENEY...AND QUICKLY
BECOME SEVERE AS ONE OR TWO STORMS EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE
ADEQUATE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 35-40 KNOTS. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR LOOKS
REALLY GOOD WITH NEARLY 90 DEGREES OF TURNING THROUGH THE LAYER.
SURFACE-BASED CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG WILL ADVANCE NORTHWARD BY
LATE AFTERNOON, AND IN COMBINATION WITH ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
FOR ROTATING CONVECTION, VERY LARGE HAIL LOOKS LIKE A VERY GOOD BET
WITH UNINTERRUPTED SUPERCELLS, WITH MAXIMUM HAIL SIZE AROUND TENNIS
BALLS POSSIBLE.
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE CONVECTION WILL
EVOLVE TOWARD SUNSET. THERE IS GREAT CONCERN THAT IF A SUPERCELL CAN
THRIVE THROUGH SUNSET...OR IF A NEW SUPERCELL DEVELOPS FARTHER SOUTH
TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF UNINTERRUPTED INFLOW...THAT TORNADOES WILL
OCCUR. THE 0-1KM AGL NEAR SURFACE SHEAR WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
IN THE 00-03Z TIME FRAME THIS EVENING. STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IN
THIS LAYER IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2 ALONG WITH SBCAPE OF 2500 J/KG IS
A DANGEROUS COMBINATION, AND MOST CERTAINLY SUPPORTS DANGEROUS
TORNADOES GIVEN AN ESTABLISHED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM. THIS IS A
THREAT WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY, AND HOPEFULLY HOURLY
3KM HRRR MODEL TRENDS WILL HELP THE DAY SHIFT IN ASSESSING THIS
THREAT FURTHER. BY MID TO LATE EVENING, THIS THREAT WILL SHIFT EAST
TOWARD THE WFO ICT AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (EAST OF ELLIS, RUSH,
STAFFORD, PRATT, BARBER COUNTIES) AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE DOWN INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THEN EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND CENTRAL ROCKIES SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL
SPIN AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND
WESTERN KANSAS WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS. A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIODS THEN RETROGRADE
BACK WEST IN THE EVENING. THE AFOREMENTIONED DRYLINE AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE THE MAIN FOCAL POINT WHERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
FROM IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MODERATELY
UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIODS WITH AMPLE SHEAR IN THE LOW
TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ERGO, ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.
A FEW TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE CWA SATURDAY
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. ONCE AGAIN, A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND ISOLATED TORNADOES BEING THE
MAIN CONCERN. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG
WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS. THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH A DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS AT THE SURFACE.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS THURSDAY ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 80
DEGREES THEN RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 70 DEGREES SATURDAY WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER TO UPPER 50S
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY ARE
FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
WHERE THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TO
UPPER 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE COLD FRONT ISN`T
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM AROUND 40 DEGREES ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER
TO UPPER 40S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS MONDAY LOOK TO
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S THEN REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 70S TUESDAY.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH A FEW LOW CLOUDS
THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10
KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 81 59 81 58 / 10 10 50 60
GCK 83 53 80 55 / 10 10 40 40
EHA 82 51 80 52 / 10 10 30 30
LBL 82 54 82 57 / 10 10 40 50
HYS 75 58 78 54 / 50 50 40 70
P28 77 63 81 61 / 50 40 60 70
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
403 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST IS THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING: WHERE EXACTLY THE THREATS ARE MOST
SIGNIFICANT, WHAT THOSE THREATS WILL BE, AND JUST HOW THIS WILL ALL
UNFOLD.
OVERNIGHT WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW THE CENTER OF A
RATHER AMORPHOUS UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH AT LEAST A
COUPLE SMALLER EMBEDDED MESOSCALE VORTICES ROTATING ABOUT A COMMON
LARGER CENTER. THE SOUTHERNMOST OF THESE APPEARED TO BE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AS OF 0830 UTC AND CONTINUED TO LIFT SLOWLY
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. MID LEVEL DRYING WAS
OCCURRING TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THIS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
PRECIPITATION HAD PRETTY MUCH CLEARED THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION,
HAVING MOVED OFF INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. A SURFACE
LOW WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO AS A
DRYLINE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE SOUTHWESTERLY
MOMENTUM IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AND
TOWARD MIDDAY...WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE ADVANCEMENT OF WARM AIR
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MOIST AXIS. THE MOIST AXIS WILL RESIDE
ROUGHLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE AS A THERMAL RIDGE NOSES
TOWARD THE MOIST AXIS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...MOST PRONOUNCED NORTH
OF DODGE CITY UP TOWARD WAKEENEY. THIS WILL BE THE REGION MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO VIGOROUS SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AFTER
ABOUT 2000 UTC (3PM CDT). FOLLOWING THE NSSL VERSION OF THE WRF-
ARW...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BLOSSOM ALONG OR VERY NEAR THE HIGHWAY 283
CORRIDOR MAINLY NORTH OF DODGE CITY UP TO WAKEENEY...AND QUICKLY
BECOME SEVERE AS ONE OR TWO STORMS EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE
ADEQUATE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 35-40 KNOTS. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR LOOKS
REALLY GOOD WITH NEARLY 90 DEGREES OF TURNING THROUGH THE LAYER.
SURFACE-BASED CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG WILL ADVANCE NORTHWARD BY
LATE AFTERNOON, AND IN COMBINATION WITH ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
FOR ROTATING CONVECTION, VERY LARGE HAIL LOOKS LIKE A VERY GOOD BET
WITH UNINTERRUPTED SUPERCELLS, WITH MAXIMUM HAIL SIZE AROUND TENNIS
BALLS POSSIBLE.
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE CONVECTION WILL
EVOLVE TOWARD SUNSET. THERE IS GREAT CONCERN THAT IF A SUPERCELL CAN
THRIVE THROUGH SUNSET...OR IF A NEW SUPERCELL DEVELOPS FARTHER SOUTH
TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF UNINTERRUPTED INFLOW...THAT TORNADOES WILL
OCCUR. THE 0-1KM AGL NEAR SURFACE SHEAR WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
IN THE 00-03Z TIME FRAME THIS EVENING. STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IN
THIS LAYER IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2 ALONG WITH SBCAPE OF 2500 J/KG IS
A DANGEROUS COMBINATION, AND MOST CERTAINLY SUPPORTS DANGEROUS
TORNADOES GIVEN AN ESTABLISHED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM. THIS IS A
THREAT WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY, AND HOPEFULLY HOURLY
3KM HRRR MODEL TRENDS WILL HELP THE DAY SHIFT IN ASSESSING THIS
THREAT FURTHER. BY MID TO LATE EVENING, THIS THREAT WILL SHIFT EAST
TOWARD THE WFO ICT AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (EAST OF ELLIS, RUSH,
STAFFORD, PRATT, BARBER COUNTIES) AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE DOWN INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THEN EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND CENTRAL ROCKIES SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL
SPIN AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND
WESTERN KANSAS WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS. A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIODS THEN RETROGRADE
BACK WEST IN THE EVENING. THE AFOREMENTIONED DRYLINE AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE THE MAIN FOCAL POINT WHERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
FROM IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MODERATELY
UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIODS WITH AMPLE SHEAR IN THE LOW
TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ERGO, ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.
A FEW TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE CWA SATURDAY
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. ONCE AGAIN, A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND ISOLATED TORNADOES BEING THE
MAIN CONCERN. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG
WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS. THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH A DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS AT THE SURFACE.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS THURSDAY ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 80
DEGREES THEN RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 70 DEGREES SATURDAY WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER TO UPPER 50S
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY ARE
FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
WHERE THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TO
UPPER 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE COLD FRONT ISN`T
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM AROUND 40 DEGREES ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER
TO UPPER 40S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS MONDAY LOOK TO
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S THEN REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 70S TUESDAY.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
LOW STRATUS WITH CEILINGS/VISIBILITY IN THE IFR TO INTERMITTENT
LIFR CATEGORY WILL BE FOUND AT DDC, GCK, AND HYS THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND INTO THE FIRST FEW HOURS POST SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE CEILING
WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND 15Z WITH
WIDESPREAD VFR DEVELOPING IN THE 15-18Z TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY AT
GCK AND DDC. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 18 TO 23 KNOTS SUSTAINED BY MIDDAY TO EARLY
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE, AFFECTING HYS TERMINAL ONLY...AS GCK AND
DDC WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO FAR WEST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 81 59 81 58 / 10 10 50 60
GCK 83 53 80 55 / 10 10 40 40
EHA 82 51 80 52 / 10 10 30 30
LBL 82 54 82 57 / 10 10 40 50
HYS 75 58 78 54 / 50 50 40 70
P28 77 63 81 61 / 50 40 60 70
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1203 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
.AVIATION...
A CONSIDERABLE AC SHIELD WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE THAT WILL SHIFT ENE
ACROSS NCNTRL/NE TX AND SE OK THROUGH 12Z. SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME
MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AFTER 08Z OVER E TX...POSSIBLY DEVELOPING FARTHER
E INTO WRN LA AFTER 12Z. SHOULD ALSO SEE SCT CONVECTION CURRENTLY
ONGOING ACROSS N TX SHIFT ENE INTO E TX AFTER 10Z...ALTHOUGH THEY
SHOULD BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME. THE GREATEST
CONFIDENCE FOR SCT CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF NE
TX/SE OK PRIOR TO DAYBREAK...BUT DID ADD VCSH MENTION FOR THE
TYR/GGG/TXK TERMINALS BY/PRIOR TO 12Z. THIS CONVECTION MAY LINGER
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT SPREADS INTO SW AR/POSSIBLY EXTREME
NW LA...BUT STILL AM EXPECTING ANY MVFR CIGS TO LIFT/BECOME VFR BY
LATE MORNING. THE CU FIELD SHOULD SCATTER OUT LATE IN THE
DAY...BEFORE LOW STRATUS DEVELOPS/ADVECTS N JUST BEYOND THE END OF
THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. SE WINDS 5-10KTS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO
8-12KTS AFTER 15Z...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KTS POSSIBLE OVER E TX.
/15/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/
UPDATE...
LOWERED A FEW SITES OVERNIGHT LOW AND TWEAKED POPS THRU 12Z.
DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION IS WINDING DOWN NOW WITH A SHOWER RECENTLY AS FAR EAST
AS MANSFIELD AND STONEWALL. SO WILL KEEP 00-06 GRID FOR THE
OVERNIGHT WITH HRRR SHOWING A BIT OF QPF ALONG WITH NEW NAM. THE
BIGGER PICTURE SHOWS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHWRS/TSTMS OVER OK AND
N TX AND SOME AUSTIN WAY DRIFTING MORE IN OUR DIRECTION. ALSO IN
THE WAKE RAINFALL...PARTS OF I-30 ALREADY DOWN AT OR BELOW FORECAST
NUMBERS SO THESE HAVE BEEN UPDATED AND WILL LIKELY WARM A BIT
BEFORE DROPPING AGAIN BEFORE DAYBREAK. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT
THIS TIME AS LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP TONIGHT HELPING TO DEVELOP MORE
CONVECTION WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. /24/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 66 82 66 85 / 20 30 10 20
MLU 62 84 65 86 / 10 10 10 20
DEQ 63 78 65 82 / 30 30 10 20
TXK 65 80 66 84 / 20 30 20 20
ELD 63 82 66 85 / 10 10 10 20
TYR 67 81 67 83 / 40 30 20 30
GGG 66 81 66 83 / 30 30 20 30
LFK 68 84 68 85 / 20 30 20 30
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1155 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD BEFORE DISSIPATING TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST FRIDAY WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THIS WEEKEND...SENDING ITS
MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...
WEAK-TO-NON-EXISTANT COLD FRONT CURRENTLY POSITIONED NORTH OF THE
MASON-DIXON WILL NUDGE SOUTH TODAY...EVENTUALLY STALLING OVER THE
NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE THE BASIS FOR
PCPN DVLPMNT FM MID AFTN THRU ERLY EVE.
12Z IAD SNDG SHOWS ANOTHER DAY W/ A LGT UPR LVL WIND FIELD. THIS
WL INHIBIT TSTM DVLPMNT. HRRR SHOWS A WEAK LN OF RW/TRW FORMING
ALONG THE BLU RDG ARND 20Z...THEN SLOWLY TRACKING SE.
SHEN VLLY SHOULD WARM INTO THE 80S...WITH AREAS TO THE NORTH
CLOSER TO THE MASON-DIXON HOVERING IN THE MID-UPPER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG S TONIGHT...DISSIPATING BY THURS
MORNING. LINGERING PCPN THIS EVENING WILL TAPER OFF AFTR SUNSET
WITH LOSS OF HTG. DRY WX SETTING UP BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE
NIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND BUILDS SOUTH UNDER THE
BUILDING RIDGE.
SFC HIGH KEEPS MOST OF THE AREA DRY THURS THRU THURS NIGHT AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST...STRADDLING THE CWA. DID MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHC POPS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH MINIMAL INSTABILITY NOTED
COMBINING WITH TERRAIN INFLUENCES OFF THE ELY FLOW. ANY PCPN
TAPERS OFF YET AGAIN FOR THURS NIGHT. ELY FLOW WILL AID IN KEEPING
TEMPS COOLER DURING THE DAY THURS...WITH MOST AREAS IN THE 70S AND
ONLY POCKETS REACHING 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE`S DECENT SYNOP SCALE AGREEMENT THAT LOPRES WL BE SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FRI WHILE RDGG WL RESIDE ACRS THE CWFA AND
A CDFNT WL BE ACRS THE WRN GRTLKS. CHALLENGE INVOLVES DETERMINING
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT TO THE LOW. DONT BELIEVE IT WL REACH US DIRECTLY.
EVEN IF IT DECAYS TO OUR S UNDER THE MID-LVL RDG...ITS MSTR WL BE
ADVECTED NWD. WHILE THAT WONT AFFECT FRI FCST...IT DOES BECOME A
PLAYER FOR THE WKND. HV INCRSG DEWPTS...NEAR 60F FRI/LWR-MID 60S
SAT- SUN...AND HV INTRO CHC POPS FOR SAT/EXPANDED CVRG SUN.
FURTHER... THERE SHUD BE SUFFICIENT RH FOR ADDED CLDS...AND HV
SOMETHING THAT/LL BE BORDERLINE PTSUN IN THE DATABASE. MAXT SHUDNT
BE FAR FM PERSISTENCE...LWR 80S. BUT THE ANOMOLOUSLY HIGH DEWPTS
SUGGST MIN-T WL BE ON THE MUGGY SIDE. USED THESE DEWPTS FOR A
STARTING POINT FOR MIN-T-- MID 60S FOR SUN/MON ELY MRNGS.
CARRIED THE TROPICAL MSTR FEED INTO MON. SAME CONSIDERATIONS BUT
POPS/TEMPS/DEWPTS A PINCH HIER AS AMS FM THE SERN CONUS ADVECTS ACRS
MID ATLC. AM KEEPING THUNDER IN FCST. INSTBY IMPROVES A LTL VS WKND
FCST. AT THIS POINT NOT SOLD ON ANY STRONG/SVR STORMS THO.
CDFNT PARKED TO OUR W/NW AT THE BGBG OF THE XTNDD FCST WL FINALLY HV
ROOM TO SWEEP EAST BY TUE. IF THERE WERE ANY STRONG STORMS...THIS
WUD LKLY BE THE DAY. HWVR JURY STILL OUT AS TO MAGNITUDE TO THREAT.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR THRU 00Z...WITH PSBL STRATUS FORMING TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT
STALLING OVER THE REGION.
SCT SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS PSBL AFTR 18Z. CONFIDENCE OF TIMING/
LOCATION TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AS -SHRA/TSRA ATTM...SO WILL MAINTAIN
VCSH. ANOTHER DAY OF LIGHT WINDS...MAINLY LESS THAN 8 KTS. NE FLOW
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME ELY FOR THE AFTN THRU TONIGHT. ANY
SHOWER/TSTM COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTN.
OUTLOOK...
VFR FRI. ISOL-SCT SHRA/TSRA PSBL DAILY SAT-SUN...MAINLY AFTN/EVE.
MAY BE BRIEF FLGT RESTRICTIONS IF A TERMINAL IS IMPACTED. THATS A
LOW CONFIDENCE FCST AT THIS VANTAGE POINT. FURTHER...CUD HV
PREDAWN FOG ASSUMING WET GROUND BEFORE NIGHTFALL FLWD BY PRTL
CLRG. THAT FCST HIGHLY CONDITIONAL.
&&
.MARINE...
GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS THRU THURS
NIGHT WITH WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS
THIS AFTN COULD RESULT IN BRIEF PERIODS OF GUSTY CONDITIONS...
MAINLY LATE AFTN AND EVENING TIME FRAME.
WEAK PRESSURE PTTN THRU THE WKND. NO HAZARDS XPCTD ATTM. LOPRES S OF
WATERS MAY EJECT NEWD...PROVIDING BRIEF/LCL SHRA/TSRA BCMG MORE NMRS
BY END OF PD.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE WARMEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015 SO FAR HAS MOVED OVER THE REGION
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK.
DCA REACHED A HIGH OF 86 DEGREES ON TUESDAY MAY 5TH...THE WARMEST
DAY SINCE SEPTEMBER 21ST 2014 WHEN THE TEMPERATURE REACHED 86
DEGREES.
BWI REACHED A HIGH OF 85 DEGREES ON TUESDAY MAY 5TH...THE WARMEST
DAY SINCE SEPTEMBER 11TH 2014 WHEN THE TEMPERATURE REACHED 89
DEGREES.
IAD REACHED A HIGH OF 85 DEGREES ON TUESDAY MAY 5TH...THE WARMEST
DAY SINCE SEPTEMBER 11TH 2014 WHEN THE TEMPERATURE REACHED 86
DEGREES.
CHO REACHED A HIGH OF 85 DEGREES ON TUESDAY MAY 5TH...THE WARMEST
DAY SINCE SEPTEMBER 21ST 2014 WHEN THE TEMPERATURE REACHED 87
DEGREES.
DMH REACHED A HIGH OF 86 DEGREES ON MONDAY MAY 4TH...THE WARMEST DAY
SINCE SEPTEMBER 11TH 2014 WHEN THE TEMPERATURE REACHED 90 DEGREES.
HGR REACHED A HIGH OF 85 DEGREES ON MONDAY MAY 4TH...THE WARMEST DAY
SINCE SEPTEMBER 6TH 2014 WHEN THE TEMPERATURE REACHED 90 DEGREES.
MRB REACHED A HIGH OF 85 DEGREES ON MONDAY MAY 4TH...THE WARMEST DAY
SINCE SEPTEMBER 21ST 2014 WHEN THE TEMPERATURE REACHED 86 DEGREES.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...ADS/HTS/DFH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
210 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING VERY WARM AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE LOCAL AREA. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT...THEN DROPS INTO VIRGINIA LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING. LOW PRESSURE WILL SPIN
OFF OR NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST UPDATED TO BOOST POPS ACROSS AREAS NEAR AND N OF RIC
WHERE SHRAS/TSTMS HAVE BEEN WIDESPREAD THIS EVENG. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING SVR BUT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE PSBL WITH AN OCCASIONAL
LIGHTING STRIKE. COVERAGE WILL DECREASE AFTR MIDNITE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE
OF THE VA/NC COAST, EXTENDING BACK ACROSS EASTERN NC. ~1006 MB LOW
PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED ACROSS NEWFOUNDLAND, WITH SFC COLD FRONT
SNAKING BACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INTO NE PA/NW NJ AND THE EASTERN
GRT LAKES. A PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM SE PA INTO SRN
MD AND NORTHERN VA.
HAVE NOTED SOME INCREASING CU OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE AND EXPECT TO SEE A BIT MORE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA ALONG THE TROUGH BY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. DO HAVE SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS ACRS THE FAR
N/NW LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. EXPECT ANY SHOWERS TO BE SHORT LIVED
OWING TO FLAT/QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND SHOULD THEREFORE ALLOW
LIMITED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND WILL YIELD A VERY SLOW
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW.
BY TONIGHT, SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOTED ON IR SAT ACRS THE LWR GRT
LAKES WILL DAMPEN AS IT DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC. RESULTANT UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO THE WNW, AND WOULD ALLOW
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO CROSS A BIT FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. GIVEN THE LIMITED ACTIVITY THUS FAR, AND W/ HRRR NOT OVERLY
EXCITED ABOUT ACTIVITY TONIGHT, WILL HANG ON TO A 30-40% RAIN
CHANCE FOR SOME SCT SHRAS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WEST, AND LATE
TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT FOR THE EASTERN SHORE. FARTHER S-SE, EXPECT DRY
CONDS TO CONTINUE UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LWR 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE LINGERED A SLIGHT CHC FOR LINGERING SHOWERS JUST AFTER SUNSET
TOMORROW MORNING...W/AREA OF WEAK LIFT SLIDING ESE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT COINCIDENT WITH PLENTY OF LINGERING LLVL
MOISTURE. ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE BRIEF AND WIDELY SCT AT MOST.
OTHERWISE...DRY IN THE MORNING FOR MOST. EARLY SUN WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING AFTN CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZONES. STRONG HEATING
AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR
SOME SCT AFTN SHRAS/THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVR WRN AND NRN COUNTIES
LATE IN THE AFTN INTO WED NIGHT. FOR TEMPS, STILL ON THE WARM SIDE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN EXPECTATION OF A SLOWER FRONTAL
PROGRESSION...RESULTING IN A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY EARLY AND
HIGHS FM 80-85 WEST OF THE BAY...TO THE 70S ON THE ERN SHORE. FRONT
BECOMES VERY DIFFUSE TOMORROW NIGHT AND WASHES OUT BY THE TIME IT
REACHES THE VA/NC BORDER. MEANWHILE, SFC LOW PRES WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
SHAPE AND CLOSE OFF ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA/SE GA WED
AFTN/NIGHT. WEAK SFC RIDGING WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVERHEAD AND
ALLOW FOR A DRY OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. HOWEVER,
EXPECT A GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD TO LINGER OVERNIGHT
INTO THU MORNING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA. GENERALLY PARTLY SUNNY FARTHER SOUTH A 20-30% CHC FOR A
SHOWER OR TSTM, AGAIN MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. E-NE WINDS
WILL RESULT IN HI TEMPS RANGING THRU THE 70S TO NEAR 80 SW TO THE
UPPER 60S/LWR 70S ERN SHORE.
STILL MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF AFOREMENTIONED LOW ALONG THE SE
COAST. MODELS STILL HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING THIS SYSTEM...WHICH IS
CASTING A BIT OF LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM.
THE 12Z/5 GFS CONTINUES TO BRING THE SFC LOW INLAND OF THE SC/NC
COAST...WITH THE 12Z/NAM NOW IN CLOSE ENOUGH TO COVER THU NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. ITS SOLUTION IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS AND TAKES THE
SURFACE LOW INLAND ACROSS EXTREME NE GA/COASTAL SC BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. FOR ITS PART, THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF REMAINS OFFSHORE, BUT
HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS IN MOVING A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH
THE SFC LOW...AND EVEN KEEPS THE LOW NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST FOR FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HAVE GONE WITH A
GFS WEIGHTED GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR FRIDAY UNTIL MODELS COME INTO A BIT
CLOSER AGREEMENT. EITHER WAY, EXPECT FRIDAY TO BE PREDOMINATELY
DRY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, BUT SHOULD SEE SOME (MAINLY) DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA (BEST CHC SOUTH OF THE BORDER INTO NC). HIGHS 80-85 INLAND,
COOLER U60S TO M70S ALONG THE COAST IN CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH LO PRES SPINNING JUST OFF OR
ALNG THE SE OR NC CST FRI NGT INTO MON MORNG. THEN...MODELS SHOW
THE LO WEAKENING AND GETTING PUSHED NNE ALNG OR JUST OFF THE VA
CST MON NGT INTO TUE MORNG...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE W.
THAT FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACRS THE AREA TUE INTO TUE NGT. WILL
HAVE 20%-30% POPS FOR SHOWERS OR TSTMS OVR MUCH OF THE REGION FRI
NGT THRU MON NGT...DUE TO MOISTURE/LIFT FM THE LO PRES AREA.
THEN...HAVE 30%-40% POPS FOR TUE/TUE NGT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT. TEMPS WILL BE ABV NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S
TO MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EARLIER SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE REGION...WITH ONLY SOME
LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AOA 12K FT AGL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT HAS LOCATED OVER SRN PA/OH EARLY THIS MORNING.
HIGH CLOUDS AOA 25K FT AGL ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTROPICAL LOW OFF
THE FL PANHANDLE HAVE LIFTED OVER SE VA/NE NC. OTHERWISE...SSW
WINDS AOB 10 KT. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO
NRN VA WHERE RAINFALL OCCURRED AND SKIES HAVE CLEARED.
HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND CLOUD COVER WILL
PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES.
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST
COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO NRN VA AND THE MD
ERN SHORE. DRY SE VA/NE NC. HAVE OPTED TO WAIT TO MENTION IN TAFS
UNTIL CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10 KT THIS
MORNING...BECOMING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SE...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KT.
SKIES RANGE FROM SCT-BKN WITH DECKS 4-6K FT AGL IN THE NORTH TO
SKC IN THE SE.
THE BACKDOOR FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURS. LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SE COAST THRU THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SE
VA/NE NC FRI THRU SUN.
&&
.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU THU. HI PRES WILL SLIDE
FARTHER OUT TO SEA TNGT THRU WED. MODELS STILL SHOW LO PRES
SPINNING JUST OFF OR NEAR THE SE CST THU INTO SUN. EXPECT SSW
WINDS 15 KT OR LESS TNGT INTO WED NGT...THEN E OR SE WINDS 5 TO 15
KT THU INTO SUN. WAVES WILL BE 1 TO 2 FT...AND SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4
FT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAS/MAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...TMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
342 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...
DIURNAL CU THE RULE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. SCT SHRA CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE FL
PARISHES OF SE LA AND FAR SE MS AND WORK N INTO HWY 98 CORRIDOR
BEFORE DISSIPATING. TRENDS AND HRRR INDICATE THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO FESTER INTO FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR AREA
THIS EVENING...SO WILL KEEP A 20 POP FOR SHRA. OTHER PRIMARY WEATHER
ISSUE FOR TONIGHT IS DENSE FOG POTENTIAL. RELATIVELY SHALLOW LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COMING INTO SOUTHERN AREAS ON LIGHT SE FLOW BELOW DRY
MID LEVEL AIR COULD POTENTIALLY SET STAGE FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG.
LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS AREAS OF LESS THAN 1/4 MI VSBYS IN PINE BELT
REGION BY 09Z...AND LAMP/MAV GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS AS WELL. HAVE
INCLUDED MENTION OF DENSE FOG IN HWO AND HAVE FOG IN GRIDS AS WELL.
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THU IS POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA PRIMARILY IN
FAR WESTERN AREAS. MODELS SUGGEST SURGE OF MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING
AND COMBO OF WEAK UPPER WAVE AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
SOME SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE MOST
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF OUR AREA...HIGH RES
MODELS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY TO BUILD INTO AT LEAST FAR
WESTERN AREAS. HAVE CARRIED LOW POPS HERE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. REST OF AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE PRETTY MUCH A CARBON COPY OF THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG IN SOUTHEAST SECTIONS LATE THU
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME LIMITED CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL IN FAR WESTERN AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK LAPSE RATES AND
MINIMAL SHEAR SUGGEST ANY CONVECTION BOTH THU/FRI AFTERNOONS WILL
REMAIN GENERIC AND SUBSEVERE IN NATURE.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...WENT WITH BIAS CORRECTED RAW GUIDANCE NEXT
FEW DAYS GIVEN GENERALLY STAGNANT CONDITIONS THAT WILL PERSIST.
DIURNAL RANGES HAVE GENERALLY BEEN LARGER THAN GRASPED BY MOS
GUIDANCE OF LATE GIVEN LACK OF APPRECIABLE RAINFALL LAST 7 TO 10 DAYS
NECESSITATING LOWER MINS AND HIGHER MAXES THAN GUIDANCE. MINS IN
PARTICULAR SEEM TO BE OVERACHIEVING ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN MS WHERE
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN DRIEST AND SURFACE RIDGE HAS GREATEST INFLUENCE.
CUT BC GUIDANCE A FEW DEGS FOR MINS IN THIS AREA.
.LONG TERM...
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED
BY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. SIGNIFICANT TROUGH
OVER SOUTHWEST CONUS RESPOSNIBLE FOR A MULTIDAY PERIOD OF ACTIVE
CONVECTION OVER PLAINS AND MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY EJECT
NORTHEAST INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL ENABLE A FRONT TO SLOWLY SAG TOWARD
OUR AREA INTO MONDAY. WHILE BEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL PASS
WELL TO OUR NORTH...APPROACH OF FRONT AND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
UPPER JET SUPPORT SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
PARTICULARLY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. DECENT LAPSE RATES SHOULD
SUPPORT SEASONABLE INSTABILITY...AND PASSING TROUGH RESULTS IN MODEST
INCREASE IN SHEAR WITH 500 MB FLOW FORECAST BY ECMWF TO REACH 30-40
KT BY MONDAY. THIS SHOULD MEAN SOME INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WITH SOME RISK FOR STRONGER STORMS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT
BEST SUPPORT FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS TO OUR N AND W AND THAT
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON MESOSCALE DEVELOPMENTS
WILL LEAVE HWO CLEAR FOR NOW. POPS GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND TO REACH HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY MOST AREAS MON INTO MON NIGHT.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD LESS OF A PUSH WITH FRONT INTO TUE/WED...
RESULTING IN POPS LINGERING AND LESS OF A COOLING TREND. ACCEPTED
MODEL BLEND FOR THIS PERIOD...BUT IF THIS TREND PERSISTS IN LATER
OPERATIONAL/ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE MAY NEED TO TREND A BIT
WARMER/WETTER THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
MAIN FOCUS FOR TAFS IS POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG
AND SOME STRATUS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING. GREATEST RISK
PER HRRR/LAMP GUIDANCE FOR LIFR CONDITIONS IS IN KHBG AREA...BUT HAVE
CARRIED SOME IFR CONDITIONS AS FAR NORTH AS I-20 PRIMARILY DUE TO A
FEW HOURS OF STRATUS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY TO VFR ALL
SITES IN THE 13Z-15Z TIMEFRAME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 58 85 62 86 / 8 9 5 5
MERIDIAN 56 86 61 86 / 4 9 4 5
VICKSBURG 61 85 63 85 / 7 14 6 8
HATTIESBURG 60 87 64 87 / 17 9 5 5
NATCHEZ 62 84 64 85 / 18 14 8 11
GREENVILLE 62 85 63 87 / 5 9 7 14
GREENWOOD 60 86 61 86 / 3 9 5 9
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1005 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
.UPDATE...
RAISED TEMPS A BIT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND ADJUSTED POPS/WEATHER A
BIT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS OUR
AREA...WITH A FEW CU BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN THE FAR SOUTH AS SHALLOW
MOISTURE COMES UP FROM THE COAST. 12Z JAN/LIX SOUNDINGS NOT VERY
CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION...SHOWING SUBSTANTIAL CAP AND PRECIPTABLE
WATER VALUES BELOW AN INCH. MODELS AND BLENDED PW LOOP DO NOT SHOW
APPRECIABLE CHANGE TO THIS SCENARIO TODAY. PRESENCE OF SLIGHTLY
DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN SOUTH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
WEAK SHEAR AXIS SHOULD RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHRA PER LATEST
HRRR AND HIGH RES MODELS. BUT GIVEN PRESENCE OF SIGNIFICANT
INHIBITION TO DEEPER CONVECTION AND SIGNAL OF RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE
LOOKING CONVECTION IN HIGH RES MODELS WILL CHANGE WX TYPE FROM TSRA
TO SHRA AND LOWERED POPS A LITTLE. LATEST HRRR SHOWS TEMPS WARMING A
COUPLE OF DEGS MORE THAN CURRENT FORECAST AND BASED ON TRENDS AND
MAXES YESTERDAY HAVE WENT WITH THIS IDEA. /08/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING
SHOWING A RATHER WEAK CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND MOVING SLOWLY NORTH. MEANWHILE...LARGE CYCLONIC
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPIN SLOWLY NE OUT OF NM INTO KS. MODELS CONFIRM
THIS PATTERN WITH ALSO A MID LEVEL RIGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO.
AT THE SURFACE...RELATIVELY DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA
AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S IN PERSISTENT LIGHT EAST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. REPOSITIONING OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TODAY
MORE TO THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO OUR WINDS
AND FINALLY A DOSE OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. MODELS...INCLUDING
HRRR AND OTHER HIRES MODELS...ARE INDICATING THAT A WEAK SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
THOUGH THE COLUMN REMAINS WARM...BETTER MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ALONG
THE BOUNDARY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR PARCELS TO SCRAPE OUT AT MOST
1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE...AS ADVERTISED BY THE NAM...TO ALLOW FOR
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION. IT PROBABLY WONT AMOUNT TO MUCH AS LAPSE
RATES REMAIN FEEBLE. WHAT DOES DEVELOP WILL WIND DOWN QUICKLY THIS
EVENING.
MOVING INTO THE OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME...SREF DATA IS INDICATING THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN THE AREA OF BEST MOISTURE
RETURN...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF...AND AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT. BEEFED UP SKY GRIDS IN THESE AREAS AND ADDED FOG IN WX GRIDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE PROMINENT OVER THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. DESPITE THE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BELIEVE THE LACK
OF A LOW LEVEL FOCUS AND INCREASED WARMING ALOFT WILL BE TOO
DETRIMENTAL TO ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. FAR SW AREAS OF THE CWA
WOULD BE THE ONLY EXCEPTION. WHILE IT IS HARD TO BELIEVE CONVECTION
WOULD FORM IN THAT AREA UNDER THESE CONDITIONS...STORMS THAT
ORIGINATE FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH COULD MOVE IN OR BRUSH ACROSS THAT
AREA. WILL NOT MENTION IN GRIDS AT THE MOMENT...NOT YET CONVINCED OF
THIS SCENARIO./26/
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGING ALOFT
AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN THE PREDOMINATE
FEATURES OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
STRAY SHOWER OR STORM DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES CURRENTLY LOOK TO COME LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING OUT OF
THE NATION`S MID-SECTION...FORCES A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO AND THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL LESSEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT DEPARTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. /19/
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD. SOME VCTS WILL BE SEEN AROUND HBG BETWEEN 06/18Z AND 07/02Z.
AFTER 07/06Z...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH OVER HBG
AND POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS HKS/JAN/MEI./26/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 87 63 85 64 / 5 8 9 5
MERIDIAN 87 60 85 62 / 5 4 9 4
VICKSBURG 87 64 86 66 / 6 7 9 6
HATTIESBURG 86 62 87 63 / 25 14 9 5
NATCHEZ 85 65 84 66 / 20 17 12 8
GREENVILLE 88 65 86 66 / 6 5 9 7
GREENWOOD 86 64 84 65 / 5 3 9 5
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AEG/26/19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
956 PM CDT Thu May 7 2015
.UPDATE...
Issued at 953 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015
Based on last several runs of the HRRR model and the 00Z NAM think
we`ll see additional more elevated convection form from central KS
through west central MO as the cold front sags southeast. This will
likely yield occasional rounds of moderate intensity rainfall. Not
expecting flash flooding type rains but more like ponding of water or
minor nuisance type urbanized flooding. Will increase PoPs to
categorical over the west central counties with some expansion to the
northeast and southwest. Have also increased Friday morning PoPs
over the southwestern third of the CWA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 408 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015
Little change to the forecast was made in this package, as the
looming threat of multiple rounds of thunderstorms - some severe,
some non-severe...some with persistent heavy rain, some with passing
showers - over the next few days, culminating with a couple days of
likely severe weather through the weekend.
For the rest of the day on Saturday the surface cold front is
currently located roughly from KOMA to KLBL by way of KGBD. Some
weak showers and thunderstorms have formed along this boundary
across Kansas, SE Nebraska, and SW Iowa. Along and just ahead of
this boundary ML CAPE values approaching 1500 J/Kg are present, so
these storms could exhibit some robust updraft potential. The main
limiting factors for severe weather is the deep layer effective
shear, which is currently around 20 kts. With decent instability and
marginal shear it is unlikely that any severe weather occurs with
this activity, but it`s conceivable that an isolated cell or two
could demonstrate some hail up to quarter sized and/or an isolated
wind gust or two around 60 mph. Out ahead of the slowly moving cold
front in the warmer air a few showers and thunderstorms are ongoing,
and this appears to be in response to a very weak impulse in the
midlevels. Deeper in the warm air instability values are actually a
bit weaker than nearer to the cold front, and deep layer effective
shear is minimal, so severe risk across southern and central
Missouri is rather low.
Overnight tonight the boundary will sag southward and set up
residence in the forecast area, likely somewhere between HWY 36 and
I-70 somewhere. Showers and thunderstorms will fire off that
boundary through a good portion of the overnight hours, bringing
several periods of rain to that area. Then by Friday afternoon the
boundary will lift north and could fire off a few rounds of
precipitation. With ML CAPE values south of the boundary in the 1000
to 1500 J/kg range there will be enough instability to get robust
updrafts, and effective shear values will even be a bit higher than
Thursday, with 0-6 km shear vectors out of the southwest around 30
kts. With shear vectors likely parallel to the boundary, it`s
possible that storms go up on the boundary, then follow each other
along that boundary. Expect robust severe weather to form in the
southern plains, and depending on the track of the upscale growth of
those storms we could see a rather wet overnight period on Friday
night into Saturday morning.
Saturday and Sunday bring with it a rather large bit of uncertainty.
By Saturday morning the boundary will lift back to the north and
could set up in northern Missouri, or perhaps north of the IA/MO
border. This boundary could be the focus for some convection on
Saturday, despite the main area of afternoon/evening convection
being in the central and southern plains. Instability on Saturday
will be rather high with ML CAPE values approaching 2000 to 2500
J/kg. Forecast hodographs along that boundary look to be rather
impressive with good clockwise curvature. Should any storms be able
to go up away from the dryline - which will be set up in western
KS/OK - then they could end up being rather potent with some storms
becoming severe. Despite the uncertainty with the afternoon/evening
convection it appears more certain that the big convection over the
western plains will congeal into a series of convective systems and
move eastward toward the forecast area. This would likely bring at
the minimum a period of heavy rain overnight on Saturday, with
perhaps some gusty winds and hail.
The focus then turns to Sunday, when a more classic severe weather
set up moves into eastern Kansas and western Missouri. The large
trough over the western CONUS will eject out and bring with it lots
of mid level ascent. The surface dryline/pacific front will be on
the doorstep of the forecast area when the trough ejects out, and
this could kick off a round of widespread robust convection.
Instability and shear parameters will likely be sufficient for
scattered to widespread severe weather. Details regarding the
weekend rounds of strong to severe storms will depend strongly on
mesoscale influences, thusly details about how everything plays out
will depend on signals that appear closer to the event. At any rate
with high PW values and multiple chances for convective systems to
move through over the next several days there still exists the
potential for several inches of rain across a widespread area. With
antecedent conditions being somewhat soggy - characterized by
several days of light to moderate rain - there will exist the
possibility for some flash flooding as well as stream flooding
across the area.
By Monday the pacific front will move through the area, and perhaps
clear the forecast area to the east, across central Missouri. There
could be some initiation of Monday cells across the far eastern edge
of the CWA on Monday, but with dry air working into the area, the
chances for precip on Monday should be confined to that area, with
dry conditions west of the boundary.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 559 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015
Initially, thunderstorm activity developing to the southwest will
work its way through the Kansas City area. Once this passes,
conditions should remain dry until a frontal boundary pushes through
overnight. This feature will help develop more persisting rain
showers with embedded convective elements. Winds will shift to the
north as the boundary crosses through the early morning hours. Will
then likely see a break in the activity once the dry air settles in
place before afternoon heating brings about additional convective
activity through the remainder of the period.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Welsh
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
924 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2015
.UPDATE...
DRYLINE IS RETREATING QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND IF HRRR/RUC PROGS
ARE CORRECT...WILL RETREAT AT LEAST TO A KRTN TO SANTA ROSA TO
KROW LINE. HAVE INCREASED DEWPOINTS AND LOW TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES
EAST OF THE DRYLINE OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION TO A STRAY SHOWER OR
TSTM IN THESE AREAS...THERE IS AN INCREASING CHANCE THAT FOG WILL
DEVELOP...SO HAVE ADDED FOG AFTER 06Z IN THESE LOCATIONS. THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND FOG WILL MIX OUT BY MID MORNING AS
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS RAMP BACK UP.
ELSEWHERE...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ACROSS SE AZ ON THE
NOSE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET. THE NOSE OF THE JET IS PROGGED TO
MOVE INTO WESTERN NM OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW OVER CALI SHIFT
EASTWARD...AND THE LATEST HRRR SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE IT INTO NM. SO HAVE ADDED SOME 10-POPS
ACROSS THE WEST AFTER 06Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.
34
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...605 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLATED HIGH BASED -SHRA AND POSSIBLY AN EVEN RARER -TSRA WILL
STILL BE A MINOR ISSUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN QUARTER OF NM REST OF
TODAY THROUGH EVENING HRS. THERE IS A SMALL RISK OF +TSRA WITH
HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS EAST OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY CAPULIN TO
LOGAN...PRIMARILY BETWEEN 02Z AND 09Z. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
FRI...THOUGH WINDS SFC AND ALOFT WILL BE STRONGER THAN TODAY AND
MAY GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KTS ACROSS SW AND FAR WEST CENTRAL NM
BETWEEN 19Z AND 24Z FRI.
43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...345 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2015...
...CORRECTED TYPOGRAPHICAL ERROR...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE DRYLINE INVADED EASTERN NEW MEXICO LAST NIGHT...BUT HAS NOW
DRIFTED BACK TOWARD THE NEW MEXICO-TEXAS BORDER. THIS BOUNDARY
WHICH SEPARATES DRY AIR TO THE WEST AND MOIST UNSTABLE AIR TO THE
EAST CAN OFTEN TRIGGER SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND COULD DO SO LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY ALSO INVADE
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AS A COLD FRONT SAGS NEAR THE AREA.
OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE JUST A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL SECTION OF NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LEAVE CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY...DRIFTING INTO
ARIZONA WHILE BRINGING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TO NEW MEXICO. A
FEW STRONG STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF NEW MEXICO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT STALLS. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO SATURDAY
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWEEPS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
INTO COLORADO. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY...AND WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY WITH
THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF NEW MEXICO REMAINING
THE FAVORED AREAS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
DRYLINE MADE AN APPEARANCE THIS MORNING IN THE EARLY
MORNING...IGNITING ONLY A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS IN EAST
CENTRAL NM BEFORE THEY QUICKLY ESCAPED INTO TX. THE DRYLINE HAS
SLOSHED BACK TO THE EAST SOME WITH SOME DEWPOINTS HAVING LOWERED
BACK INTO THE 30S AND 40S AROUND KTCC...KCVN...KCVS...AND
VICINITY. SUSPECT NO STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP IN EASTERN NM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS THE
DRYLINE SLOSHES BACK WEST. HAVE KEPT 20 PERCENT POPS ALONG THE
EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. AM ALSO
EXPECTING CONVECTION IN EASTERN CO TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND
MORE WIDESPREAD...POTENTIALLY ENHANCING THE COLD POOL AND DRIVING
THE SURFACE FRONT INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF NM THIS EVENING.
ANY STORMS THAT DO ENTER NORTHEAST WOULD HAVE BETTER CHANCES FOR
TURNING STRONG TO SEVERE WITH BETTER VEERING WIND PROFILES AND
HIGHER SHEAR.
AS UPPER LOW EXITS CA AND ENTERS AZ ON FRIDAY...STRONGER
SOUTHWESTERLIES ARE DRAWN OVER NM WHILE A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEEPEN. THE SURFACE LOW WILL NOT BE OPTIMALLY LOCATED FOR A VERY
STRONG WIND EVENT...BUT SUFFICIENT DEEP VERTICAL MIXING SHOULD
TRANSPORT SOME BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DOWN TO THE SURFACE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BEST FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION VIA DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT AND EVEN SOME OROGRAPHICS WILL BE PLACED OVER THE NORTHERN
TIER OF NM WHILE THE SURFACE FRONT WASHING OUT IN THE NORTHEAST
COULD ALSO INITIATE SOME STORMS IF IT TAKES ITS TIME RETREATING.
SATURDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE THE MORE DYNAMIC DAY WITH THE LOW
PROGRESSING QUICKLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND THEN INTO CO. THIS
WILL DYNAMICALLY COOL THE ATMOSPHERE OVER NM WHILE SPREADING EVEN
STRONGER WINDS INTO THE STATE DUE TO STRONGER BELT OF WINDS ALOFT
WRAPPING THE BASE OF THE LOW AND A DEEPENING LEE SIDE SURFACE
CYCLONE IN EASTERN CO. STRONGEST WINDS HAVE BEEN BUILT INTO
NORTHEAST NM...AND AN ADVISORY OR OTHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE
NECESSARY. PRECIPITATION WILL FAVOR THE NORTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHWESTERN ZONES...BUT QPF IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH. HOWEVER...SNOW
LEVELS COULD LOWER TO 7000 TO 8000 FEET IN SOME AREAS
SATURDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE TO A FEW INCHES OF HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL 5 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW EARLY MAY CLIMATOLOGY ON SATURDAY.
THE LOW WILL EXIT INTO THE GREAT PLAINS SUNDAY...BUT WRAP-AROUND
DYNAMICS WILL KEEP SOME PRECIPITATION GOING OVER THE NORTHERN
ZONES OF NM...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN
ZONES. BREEZES WILL REDUCE IN SPEED CONSIDERABLY...BUT WILL STILL
BE QUITE BRISK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE SUNDAY...AND A BACK DOOR FRONTAL INTRUSION IS STILL
ADVERTISED BY THE FORECAST MODELS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.
WHILE A QUIETER DAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH REBOUNDING
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WINDS...MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL BE
STAGING FOR MORE ADVERSE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE TUESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY PERIOD. WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER SOUTHEASTERLY IN TX AND
INTO EASTERN NM...ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
HEALTHY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD TURN
STRONG TO SEVERE...WILL BE SETTING UP INTO TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...NAMELY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
52
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
BREEZIER PATTERN NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ANOTHER MOISTURE INTRUSION
WILL IMPACT NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY. A MORE POTENT MOISTURE
INTRUSION WILL BE POSSIBLE...FAVORING THE EASTERN HALF BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS ARE A MOSAIC DUE TO GREENUP
CONSIDERATIONS. DUE TO THE LACK OF A WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
WEATHER EVENT...WATCHES/WARNINGS ARE NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 7
DAYS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...GENERALLY LIGHTER VARIETY WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN TIER TODAY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL GENERALLY BE MODERATE TO
GOOD MOST AREAS TONIGHT.
UPTICK IN THE WIND WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AS A PACIFIC CLOSED LOW
EDGES CLOSER TO THE STATE. DRIER AIR FOUND IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA AND BEGIN THE
DRYING PROCESS. A FEW LEFT OVER SHOWERS/STORMS COULD BE FOUND ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH. CURRENT GRIDS SHOW SOME STRONG WIND/LOW RH AND VARIED
HAINES 4 TO 6 VALUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MAIN
THREAT APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND BETWEEN
LAS VEGAS TO SANTA ROSA. DUE TO LESS ORGANIZATION AND VARIED FUEL
CONCERNS WILL NOT ISSUE A WATCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ALSO APPEAR TO BE
NEAR NORMAL TO EVEN BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN TIER.
VENTILATION WILL BE EXCELLENT.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND A CLOSE LOW MOVING OVER THE NW HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND PROVIDE SOME MODERATE WETTING RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE NW THIRD TO HALF. SOME MODERATE DRY SLOTTING WILL
IMPACT FAR SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS WITH CONTINUED BREEZINESS DUE TO
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AND
HAINES VALUES WILL BE LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. CAN SEE
SOME STRONG WIND/LOW RH ALIGNMENT ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST AREAS DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...WONT
ISSUE A WATCH FOR THIS SITUATION.
THE PACIFIC LOW WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OUT OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND
PROVIDE A REMAINING COOLER TREND. SOME SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS
THE NORTH BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHTER. SOME WEST/NORTHWEST BREEZES
ARE ANTICIPATED BUT NOT NEARLY AS STRONG COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. ALL THE
MODELS SEEM TO BE SHOWING THIS TREND.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN ALIGNMENT FOR A DRIER AND WARMER EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WEST COAST. BASED ON
THE LOW POSITION...EXPECTING A MORE PRONOUNCED DRYLINE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND SLOSH BACK AND FORTH DUE TO THE
TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS. GFS/ECMWF MODELS BOTH PAINT THE FIRST
DRYLINE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TYPICALLY UNDER THESE SCENARIOS...A
CONCENTRATED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS AND PUSHES THE DRYLINE
FURTHER WEST THAN ANTICIPATED. WILL BE MONITORING THAT.
BOTTOMLINE...MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY AND WARMER TEMPS WOULD BE FOUND
WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH HIGHER RH AND MORE PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL EAST OF THE VALLEY. BREEZINESS IS TYPICALLY FOUND ALONG
THE DRYLINE PASSAGE.
50
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
34
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1142 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
LATEST FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST MORE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHWEST THIRD TO HALF OF NEW MEXICO THAN PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED DUE TO A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE AS WELL AS LINGERING
MOISTURE. MTS TO BE OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED IN SCT -SHRA/-TSRA
WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. SWLY WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH TSTMS AS WELL AS SFC LOW PRESSURE/LEE TROF.
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AFT 07/02Z IN GENERAL BUT INCREASING
INSTAB FROM THE KCVS AREA SWD MAY RESULT IN ISOLD CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...AND MAY BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO NOT AFFECT KROW. ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALSO RESULT IN LCL MVFR CIGS AFT 07/06Z ALONG
AND W OF THE CONTDVD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...1007 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015...
.UPDATE...
SENDING OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO TODAY PERIOD FORECAST TO INCREASE
POPS FOR SOME CENTRAL TO SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. LATEST FEW HRRR RUNS
AS WELL AS THE NEW 12Z NAM ARE DEPICTING QPF A BIT FARTHER SOUTH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ATMOSPHERE SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENTLY STEEP
TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO SPAWN A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND ALBUQUERQUE AND EVEN SOME POINTS FARTHER
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS
PERTURBATION ALOFT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...ON A TRAJECTORY THAT
WOULD GIVE ALBUQUERQUE AND POINTS FARTHER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
SUFFICIENT FORCING AND LIFT FOR SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT. FOR
THE MOST PART...STORMS SHOULD BE A GARDEN VARIETY...BUT SOME SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE.
52
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...318 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST THIRD OR SO OF NEW MEXICO. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE
AS SIGNIFICANT AS THE LAST TWO DAYS...BUT A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECT TO RETURN
AREAWIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM 5 TO 15 DEGREES OVER YESTERDAYS
READINGS...BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY.
EVEN DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT
WILL REMAIN BREEZY. A STORM SYSTEM PASSING NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
ON SATURDAY SHOULD BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO. A FEW
STORMS MAY PERSIST ON SUNDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN
AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MUCH QUIETER DAY IN STORE AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OR SO OF THE CWA. STILL SOME LINGERING MOISTURE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM AZ LATE
TODAY AND OVERNIGHT MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLD-SCT STORMS TO DEVELOP. NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING AS SIGNIFICANT AS THE LAST TWO DAYS...BUT SHOULD
PROVIDE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TO THE AREA. OTHERWISE...WITH LESS
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...TEMPS SHOULD WARM 5 TO 15 DEGREES OVER
YESTERDAYS READINGS. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO RETURN
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AS A 996 MB LOW DEVELOPS OVER SE CO.
OVERNIGHT...WE WILL BE WATCHING THE DRYLINE SLOSH BACK WESTWARD. GFS
IS THE MOST BULLISH AT BREAKING OUT A FEW STORMS ACROSS
CURRY/ROOSEVELT COUNTIES...SO HAVE KEPT SOME ISOLD POPS IN THE FCST
TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT.
MORE DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO NM ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM DIVING SOUTHWARD OVER CALI. WEAK DIFFLUENCE MAY ALLOW FOR A
STRAY SHOWER OR STORM TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS...BUT
OVERALL WILL BE A QUIET BUT BREEZY DAY.
MODELS STILL STRUGGLING A BIT WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THIS STORM SYSTEM
WILL GO. THE CENTER OF THE LOW AS PREDICTED BY THE GFS IS NOT QUITE
AS FAR SOUTH AS LAST NIGHT...BUT IT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
LATEST EC AND CANADIAN. BASED ON THESE MODELS...THE CENTER OF THE
LOW LOOKS TO TRACK OVER AZ...SKIRT THE 4 CORNERS...AND MOVE EAST
OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO. THE NAM THRU 84 HOURS SUGGESTS A TRACK THAT
IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH. WITH THE MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...THE
DRYLINE MAY NOT SLOSH AS FAR WESTWARD THURS AND FRI NIGHTS...AND
WILL QUICKLY MIX EASTWARD DURING THE DAYS WITH STRONG AND DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MIXING TO THE SURFACE. THUS...LIMITING THE TSTM
THREAT ACROSS THE FAR EAST. THE NAM SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR THE DRYLINE
PUSHING FURTHER WEST EACH NIGHT AND IT ALSO CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A
WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT ACROSS THE FAR NE MOVING IN THURS NIGHT...WHICH
MAY BE A FOCUS FOR T-STORM DEVELOPMENT EITHER THURS NIGHT OR FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE... BENEATH THE COLD CORE OF THE LOW/TROUGH...SHOULD SEE
SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS ON SATURDAY AS
THE LOW PASSES NEAR THE 4 CORNERS.
BEHIND THE LOW...A BAGGY TROUGH LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A BACK DOOR FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MAIN SYSTEM WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS. THUS...A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE NEARLY AREAWIDE. MONDAY WILL BE THE
TRANSITION DAY. WEAK RIDGING WILL TAKE SHAPE BY EARLY TUESDAY...AND
WINDS BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED BACK DOOR FRONT WILL VEER AROUND TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...PULLING IN SOME GULF MOISTURE. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT THE MOISTURE MAY MAKE IT WEST OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN. SHOULD THAT OCCUR...OROGRAPHICS WILL PLAY A PART IN MORE
STORMS OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. IF THE EC IS RIGHT...A SHARP TROUGH
WILL ALSO AID BRINGING UP MORE MOISTURE AND RESULTING IN MORE TSTMS
WEDNESDAY.
34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SMALL AREAS OF MARGINAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT THIS CURRENT WET PERIOD SHOULD
HELP MINIMIZE THE THREAT IN THOSE AREAS.
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST INTO CO AS A WEAK SHORT
WAVE RIDGE REPLACES THE LOW. THUS...DRIER CONDITIONS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP FOR TODAY WITH WETTING RAIN LIMITED TO THE
NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL CO...COMBINED WITH A RELATIVELY TIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT...WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS BY AFTERNOON FAVORING HIGHER TERRAIN
AND THE EASTERN PLAINS. HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES HIGHER THAN
TUESDAY WHILE MINIMUM RH VALUES DROP 20 TO 40 PERCENT. VENTILATION
WILL BE EXCELLENT IN ALL ZONES. RH RECOVERIES TONIGHT WILL BE
MOSTLY GOOD.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DIVE
TO THE SOUTH AND BE CENTERED NEAR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL INCREASE OVER NEW
MEXICO AS A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER JET STRENGTHENS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LOW. SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL USHER IN SOME DRIER AIR...BUT
SPEEDS WILL BE NOT AS STRONG AS THOSE TODAY. VENTILATION TO BE
MOSTLY EXCELLENT. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRIMARILY
FAVORED OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN. A STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ALONG THE TX BORDER OF CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES.
HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WHILE MIN RH VALUES WILL BE UP TO
15 PERCENT LOWER.
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH NEW MEXICO
WITH THE CENTER NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
ASSOCIATED JET WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...STRONGEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ON SATURDAY. CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS OF WIND AND RH COULD BE MET EACH DAY FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS...MAINLY IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND EAST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
ON FRIDAY...AND EASTERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE RECENT
WET CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD
MINIMIZE THE CRITICAL FIRE THREAT. ALSO...WHILE HIGH HAINES VALUES
ARE FORECAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEY DO NOT LINE UP WITH THE
EXPECTED LOCATIONS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS. VENTILATION WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY EXCELLENT. THE BEST CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN FAVOR WEST AND
NORTH ZONES ON SATURDAY.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN LOW CENTER TO OUR
NORTHEAST SUNDAY WILL KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN.
WARMING WILL BE LIMITED TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WHILE A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT ACTUALLY BRINGS SOME COOLING TO THE EAST SUNDAY.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN ITS WAKE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO INCREASE AT MOST LOCATIONS
ALTHOUGH STILL BELOW NORMAL. A FEW STORMS COULD CONTINUE OVER THE
NORTH ON MONDAY WHILE A DRY LINE MAY MOVE INTO THE EAST ON TUESDAY
WITH POTENTIAL STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.
CHJ
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1007 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015
.UPDATE...
SENDING OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO TODAY PERIOD FORECAST TO INCREASE
POPS FOR SOME CENTRAL TO SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. LATEST FEW HRRR RUNS
AS WELL AS THE NEW 12Z NAM ARE DEPICTING QPF A BIT FARTHER SOUTH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ATMOSPHERE SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENTLY STEEP
TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO SPAWN A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND ALBUQUERQUE AND EVEN SOME POINTS FARTHER
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS
PERTURBATION ALOFT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...ON A TRAJECTORY THAT
WOULD GIVE ALBUQUERQUE AND POINTS FARTHER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
SUFFICIENT FORCING AND LIFT FOR SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT. FOR
THE MOST PART...STORMS SHOULD BE A GARDEN VARIETY...BUT SOME SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE.
52
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...546 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME
LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING COULD RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. BEST
CHANCES GUP AND SAF. OVERALL LESS ACTIVE TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED -SHRA AND -TSRA IN THE NW THIRD OF NM...ESPECIALLY
FAVORING THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS...ALONG WITH BRIEF MT OBSCURATIONS. BREEZY
TO WINDY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BY MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN. GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KT AT LVS AND TCC. WINDS DIMINISH AND NEARLY ALL
PRECIP TO END DURING THE EVE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...318 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST THIRD OR SO OF NEW MEXICO. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE
AS SIGNIFICANT AS THE LAST TWO DAYS...BUT A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECT TO RETURN
AREAWIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM 5 TO 15 DEGREES OVER YESTERDAYS
READINGS...BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY.
EVEN DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT
WILL REMAIN BREEZY. A STORM SYSTEM PASSING NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
ON SATURDAY SHOULD BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO. A FEW
STORMS MAY PERSIST ON SUNDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN
AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MUCH QUIETER DAY IN STORE AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OR SO OF THE CWA. STILL SOME LINGERING MOISTURE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM AZ LATE
TODAY AND OVERNIGHT MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLD-SCT STORMS TO DEVELOP. NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING AS SIGNIFICANT AS THE LAST TWO DAYS...BUT SHOULD
PROVIDE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TO THE AREA. OTHERWISE...WITH LESS
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...TEMPS SHOULD WARM 5 TO 15 DEGREES OVER
YESTERDAYS READINGS. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO RETURN
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AS A 996 MB LOW DEVELOPS OVER SE CO.
OVERNIGHT...WE WILL BE WATCHING THE DRYLINE SLOSH BACK WESTWARD. GFS
IS THE MOST BULLISH AT BREAKING OUT A FEW STORMS ACROSS
CURRY/ROOSEVELT COUNTIES...SO HAVE KEPT SOME ISOLD POPS IN THE FCST
TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT.
MORE DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO NM ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM DIVING SOUTHWARD OVER CALI. WEAK DIFFLUENCE MAY ALLOW FOR A
STRAY SHOWER OR STORM TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS...BUT
OVERALL WILL BE A QUIET BUT BREEZY DAY.
MODELS STILL STRUGGLING A BIT WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THIS STORM SYSTEM
WILL GO. THE CENTER OF THE LOW AS PREDICTED BY THE GFS IS NOT QUITE
AS FAR SOUTH AS LAST NIGHT...BUT IT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
LATEST EC AND CANADIAN. BASED ON THESE MODELS...THE CENTER OF THE
LOW LOOKS TO TRACK OVER AZ...SKIRT THE 4 CORNERS...AND MOVE EAST
OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO. THE NAM THRU 84 HOURS SUGGESTS A TRACK THAT
IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH. WITH THE MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...THE
DRYLINE MAY NOT SLOSH AS FAR WESTWARD THURS AND FRI NIGHTS...AND
WILL QUICKLY MIX EASTWARD DURING THE DAYS WITH STRONG AND DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MIXING TO THE SURFACE. THUS...LIMITING THE TSTM
THREAT ACROSS THE FAR EAST. THE NAM SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR THE DRYLINE
PUSHING FURTHER WEST EACH NIGHT AND IT ALSO CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A
WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT ACROSS THE FAR NE MOVING IN THURS NIGHT...WHICH
MAY BE A FOCUS FOR T-STORM DEVELOPMENT EITHER THURS NIGHT OR FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE... BENEATH THE COLD CORE OF THE LOW/TROUGH...SHOULD SEE
SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS ON SATURDAY AS
THE LOW PASSES NEAR THE 4 CORNERS.
BEHIND THE LOW...A BAGGY TROUGH LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A BACK DOOR FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MAIN SYSTEM WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS. THUS...A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE NEARLY AREAWIDE. MONDAY WILL BE THE
TRANSITION DAY. WEAK RIDGING WILL TAKE SHAPE BY EARLY TUESDAY...AND
WINDS BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED BACK DOOR FRONT WILL VEER AROUND TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...PULLING IN SOME GULF MOISTURE. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT THE MOISTURE MAY MAKE IT WEST OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN. SHOULD THAT OCCUR...OROGRAPHICS WILL PLAY A PART IN MORE
STORMS OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. IF THE EC IS RIGHT...A SHARP TROUGH
WILL ALSO AID BRINGING UP MORE MOISTURE AND RESULTING IN MORE TSTMS
WEDNESDAY.
34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SMALL AREAS OF MARGINAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT THIS CURRENT WET PERIOD SHOULD
HELP MINIMIZE THE THREAT IN THOSE AREAS.
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST INTO CO AS A WEAK SHORT
WAVE RIDGE REPLACES THE LOW. THUS...DRIER CONDITIONS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP FOR TODAY WITH WETTING RAIN LIMITED TO THE
NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL CO...COMBINED WITH A RELATIVELY TIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT...WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS BY AFTERNOON FAVORING HIGHER TERRAIN
AND THE EASTERN PLAINS. HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES HIGHER THAN
TUESDAY WHILE MINIMUM RH VALUES DROP 20 TO 40 PERCENT. VENTILATION
WILL BE EXCELLENT IN ALL ZONES. RH RECOVERIES TONIGHT WILL BE
MOSTLY GOOD.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DIVE
TO THE SOUTH AND BE CENTERED NEAR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL INCREASE OVER NEW
MEXICO AS A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER JET STRENGTHENS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LOW. SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL USHER IN SOME DRIER AIR...BUT
SPEEDS WILL BE NOT AS STRONG AS THOSE TODAY. VENTILATION TO BE
MOSTLY EXCELLENT. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRIMARILY
FAVORED OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN. A STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ALONG THE TX BORDER OF CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES.
HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WHILE MIN RH VALUES WILL BE UP TO
15 PERCENT LOWER.
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH NEW MEXICO
WITH THE CENTER NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
ASSOCIATED JET WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...STRONGEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ON SATURDAY. CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS OF WIND AND RH COULD BE MET EACH DAY FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS...MAINLY IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND EAST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
ON FRIDAY...AND EASTERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE RECENT
WET CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD
MINIMIZE THE CRITICAL FIRE THREAT. ALSO...WHILE HIGH HAINES VALUES
ARE FORECAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEY DO NOT LINE UP WITH THE
EXPECTED LOCATIONS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS. VENTILATION WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY EXCELLENT. THE BEST CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN FAVOR WEST AND
NORTH ZONES ON SATURDAY.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN LOW CENTER TO OUR
NORTHEAST SUNDAY WILL KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN.
WARMING WILL BE LIMITED TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WHILE A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT ACTUALLY BRINGS SOME COOLING TO THE EAST SUNDAY.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN ITS WAKE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO INCREASE AT MOST LOCATIONS
ALTHOUGH STILL BELOW NORMAL. A FEW STORMS COULD CONTINUE OVER THE
NORTH ON MONDAY WHILE A DRY LINE MAY MOVE INTO THE EAST ON TUESDAY
WITH POTENTIAL STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.
CHJ
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
52
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
237 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH TODAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL MOVE ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE FRONT BRINGING SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE ACROSS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON
THURSDAY BRINGING WARM AND DRY WEATHER WITH IT. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES REGION TO THE UPPER
MOHAWK VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS EARLY THIS
MORNING...ONE MOVING ACRS SC NY AND NE PA AND ANOTHER ONE ACRS NE
OH TO NW PA. THE FIRST BATCH OF PRECIP OVER SC NY/NE PA WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT IN ADVANCE OF A SHRT WAVE THAT WAS
MOVING ACRS THE ERN LAKES INTO NY STATE. THIS FEATURE WAS
SUPPORTING A SWRLY LOW-LEVEL WIND MAX WHICH WAS RISING
ISENTROPICALLY ACRS SC NY/NE PA AND LEADING TO A MORE STRATIFORM
RAIN. THIS WAVE WILL CONT EAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND TAKE THIS
PRECIPITATION EAST OF SC NY SO HAVE POPS FOR SHRA WINDING DOWN BY
ARND 12Z OR SO IN SC NY. RADAR SHOWS THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP IN
NW OH AND NW PA HEADING JUST S OF E TWD NE PA AND SULLIVAN CO NY
PRIMARILY. BELIEVE THE RAP HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THE NEXT PRECIP SHIELD BASED ON CURRENT RADAR DATA WHEN LOOKING AT
THE OTHER HI RES MODEL REFLECTIVITIES. THE PRECIP WAS MORE
CONVECTIVE IN NATURE IN NE OH/NW PA AS IT WAS BEING SUPPORTED BY
ANTHR LOW- LEVEL WIND MAX TIED TO A SMALL SHRT WAVE AT MID- LEVELS
MAINLY. THERE WAS MORE LL THETA-E ADVTN IN THIS AREA THAT WAS
DESTABILIZING THE AMS ABV A SFC FRNT WHICH WAS ACRS SERN OH TO SW
PA. SO THE LL WIND MAX WAS ADVECTING MOISTURE ABV THE SFC FRNT
LEADING TO ELEVATED CONVECTIVE SHRA AND ISLD TSRA. THIS WIND MAX
MOVES E THIS MORNING AND THE MOISTURE ADVTN WEAKENS SOME BUT THERE
WILL BE INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT THRU 12Z OVER NE PA. SO WE
THINK THE PRECIP WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM-ISH IN NATURE AS IT
WORKS INTO NE PA AND SERN NY BTWN 12Z AND 15Z. BY 15Z...THERE WILL
BE ENUF MIXING IN THE BNDRY LAYER SOUTH OF THE PRECIP TO DISRUPT
THIS LL WIND MAX WHICH WILL IN EFFECT CUT OFF THE ISENTROPIC LIFT.
THUS WE EXPECT THIS PRECIP WILL WEAKEN AND FALL APART BY 15-18Z
THE LATEST.
THEN FOR THE AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE ENUF DRY AIR IN THE LL/S TO
PRECLUDE MUCH CUMULUS FORMATION FROM NC NY TO THE CATSKILLS.
FARTHER W...THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE LL MOISTURE SO I EXPECT
SCT-BKN CU AT THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER CLOUDS OVERHEAD. I DON/T
EXPECT ANY PRECIP AFTER 18Z OR SO IN NE PA/C NY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RDG AXIS WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN LAKES WITH A SFC RDG OVHD. SKIES WILL BE PC TO MO
CLR. ON THURSDAY 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO +12C WHICH TRANSLATES WITH
MIXING TO MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
FOR THURSDAY NGT...AGAIN FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED. FOR
FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATES SCT SHRA AND TSRA FORMING WITH CAPES
BTWN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG CAPES. THE NAM ALSO HAS CAPES ABV 1000
J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. BUT THE FORCING WILL BE MINIMAL AS THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE UPPER RDG AXIS. I COULD SEE AN ISLD SHRA
OR TSRA FORMING WITH LOCALLY MESOSCALE CRCLNS BUT THESE WILL BE
ISLD SO HAVE SLGHT CHC POPS...MAINLY OUR WRN CWA WHERE DEWPOINTS
AND CAPES WILL BE A BIT HIGHER.
FRIDAY NGT LOOKS FAIR AND DRY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
425 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO EXTENDED FORECAST JUST
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. AREA WILL REMAIN
UNDER A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES AND JUST LOW CHC POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS HUMIDITIES
INCREASE. NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. DRY AND
COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
2 PM UPDATE...
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...
FOR THE LONG RANGE, THE AREA WILL INITIALLY BE IN A WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS WITH A COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY BRINGING A RETURN TO
MUCH COOLER WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, SW FLOW CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OVER
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. ANY SCATTERED STORMS THAT FORM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH MORE SCATTERED STORMS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL NY. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE LOW 80S WITH DEW POINTS NUDGING INTO THE
MID 60S SO IT WILL BE FAIRLY HUMID.
HEADING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, THERE CONTINUES TO BE
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING HOW FAST THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE GFS CONTINUING TO FAVOR A
FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE EC. IN ANY EVENT, EXPECT MORE UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR MORE ORGANIZED AND
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS BY LATE MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES
DOWN INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT MAY WAVER OVER THE AREA INTO TUESDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CUTS NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
BUT EVENTUALLY CLEARS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN TO MUCH
COOLER CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOUDS STILL PERSISTING FOR KITH/KELM/KBGM/KAVP WILL DIMINISH
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT, THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES WILL RESULT IN A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
SOME MIST AND FOG AROUND KELM SO WE HAVE KEPT IFR VISBYS IN TAF
WITH THIS UPDATE. KBGM MAY ALSO SEEM SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IT IN TAF AT THIS POINT.
OTHERWISE NO RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
.OUTLOOK...
THU-SUN...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...MAINLY FOR CENTRAL NY TERMINALS.
MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...PCF/RRM
AVIATION...PCF/RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
133 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH TODAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL MOVE ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE FRONT BRINGING SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE ACROSS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON
THURSDAY BRINGING WARM AND DRY WEATHER WITH IT. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES REGION TO THE UPPER
MOHAWK VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS EARLY THIS
MORNING...ONE MOVING ACRS SC NY AND NE PA AND ANOTHER ONE ACRS NE
OH TO NW PA. THE FIRST BATCH OF PRECIP OVER SC NY/NE PA WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT IN ADVANCE OF A SHRT WAVE THAT WAS
MOVING ACRS THE ERN LAKES INTO NY STATE. THIS FEATURE WAS
SUPPORTING A SWRLY LOW-LEVEL WIND MAX WHICH WAS RISING
ISENTROPICALLY ACRS SC NY/NE PA AND LEADING TO A MORE STRATIFORM
RAIN. THIS WAVE WILL CONT EAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND TAKE THIS
PRECIPITATION EAST OF SC NY SO HAVE POPS FOR SHRA WINDING DOWN BY
ARND 12Z OR SO IN SC NY. RADAR SHOWS THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP IN
NW OH AND NW PA HEADING JUST S OF E TWD NE PA AND SULLIVAN CO NY
PRIMARILY. BELIEVE THE RAP HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THE NEXT PRECIP SHIELD BASED ON CURRENT RADAR DATA WHEN LOOKING AT
THE OTHER HI RES MODEL REFLECTIVITIES. THE PRECIP WAS MORE
CONVECTIVE IN NATURE IN NE OH/NW PA AS IT WAS BEING SUPPORTED BY
ANTHR LOW- LEVEL WIND MAX TIED TO A SMALL SHRT WAVE AT MID- LEVELS
MAINLY. THERE WAS MORE LL THETA-E ADVTN IN THIS AREA THAT WAS
DESTABILIZING THE AMS ABV A SFC FRNT WHICH WAS ACRS SERN OH TO SW
PA. SO THE LL WIND MAX WAS ADVECTING MOISTURE ABV THE SFC FRNT
LEADING TO ELEVATED CONVECTIVE SHRA AND ISLD TSRA. THIS WIND MAX
MOVES E THIS MORNING AND THE MOISTURE ADVTN WEAKENS SOME BUT THERE
WILL BE INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT THRU 12Z OVER NE PA. SO WE
THINK THE PRECIP WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM-ISH IN NATURE AS IT
WORKS INTO NE PA AND SERN NY BTWN 12Z AND 15Z. BY 15Z...THERE WILL
BE ENUF MIXING IN THE BNDRY LAYER SOUTH OF THE PRECIP TO DISRUPT
THIS LL WIND MAX WHICH WILL IN EFFECT CUT OFF THE ISENTROPIC LIFT.
THUS WE EXPECT THIS PRECIP WILL WEAKEN AND FALL APART BY 15-18Z
THE LATEST.
THEN FOR THE AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE ENUF DRY AIR IN THE LL/S TO
PRECLUDE MUCH CUMULUS FORMATION FROM NC NY TO THE CATSKILLS.
FARTHER W...THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE LL MOISTURE SO I EXPECT
SCT-BKN CU AT THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER CLOUDS OVERHEAD. I DON/T
EXPECT ANY PRECIP AFTER 18Z OR SO IN NE PA/C NY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RDG AXIS WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN LAKES WITH A SFC RDG OVHD. SKIES WILL BE PC TO MO
CLR. ON THURSDAY 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO +12C WHICH TRANSLATES WITH
MIXING TO MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
FOR THURSDAY NGT...AGAIN FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED. FOR
FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATES SCT SHRA AND TSRA FORMING WITH CAPES
BTWN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG CAPES. THE NAM ALSO HAS CAPES ABV 1000
J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. BUT THE FORCING WILL BE MINIMAL AS THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE UPPER RDG AXIS. I COULD SEE AN ISLD SHRA
OR TSRA FORMING WITH LOCALLY MESOSCALE CRCLNS BUT THESE WILL BE
ISLD SO HAVE SLGHT CHC POPS...MAINLY OUR WRN CWA WHERE DEWPOINTS
AND CAPES WILL BE A BIT HIGHER.
FRIDAY NGT LOOKS FAIR AND DRY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
425 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO EXTENDED FORECAST JUST
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. AREA WILL REMAIN
UNDER A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES AND JUST LOW CHC POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS HUMIDITIES
INCREASE. NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. DRY AND
COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
2 PM UPDATE...
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKED GOOD. WARM AND DRY MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND THEN BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
VERY WARM WITH HUMIDITY THIS WEEKEND UNDER A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE JUST OF THE CWA IN SE CANADA
WHICH STAYS THERE ALL OF THE LONG TERM. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS
WHERE THIS SETS UP AND STAYS. MODELS DIFFER ON THIS. WPC LEANS ON
EURO WHICH KEEPS THE BOUNDARY IN CANADA WHILE THE GFS DROPS IT
INTO PA SUN AND MON. HAVE FOLLOWED WPC AND HAVE CHC POPS FAR NORTH
SAT NGT THEN EVERYONE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOUDS STILL PERSISTING FOR KITH/KELM/KBGM/KAVP WILL DIMINISH
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT, THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES WILL RESULT IN A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
SOME MIST AND FOG AROUND KELM SO WE HAVE KEPT IFR VISBYS IN TAF
WITH THIS UPDATE. KBGM MAY ALSO SEEM SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IT IN TAF AT THIS POINT.
OTHERWISE NO RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
.OUTLOOK...
THU-SUN...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...MAINLY FOR CENTRAL NY TERMINALS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...PCF/RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
654 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH TODAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL MOVE ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE FRONT BRINGING SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE ACROSS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON
THURSDAY BRINGING WARM AND DRY WEATHER WITH IT. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES REGION TO THE UPPER
MOHAWK VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS EARLY THIS
MORNING...ONE MOVING ACRS SC NY AND NE PA AND ANOTHER ONE ACRS NE
OH TO NW PA. THE FIRST BATCH OF PRECIP OVER SC NY/NE PA WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT IN ADVANCE OF A SHRT WAVE THAT WAS
MOVING ACRS THE ERN LAKES INTO NY STATE. THIS FEATURE WAS
SUPPORTING A SWRLY LOW-LEVEL WIND MAX WHICH WAS RISING
ISENTROPICALLY ACRS SC NY/NE PA AND LEADING TO A MORE STRATIFORM
RAIN. THIS WAVE WILL CONT EAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND TAKE THIS
PRECIPITATION EAST OF SC NY SO HAVE POPS FOR SHRA WINDING DOWN BY
ARND 12Z OR SO IN SC NY. RADAR SHOWS THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP IN
NW OH AND NW PA HEADING JUST S OF E TWD NE PA AND SULLIVAN CO NY
PRIMARILY. BELIEVE THE RAP HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THE NEXT PRECIP SHIELD BASED ON CURRENT RADAR DATA WHEN LOOKING AT
THE OTHER HI RES MODEL REFLECTIVITIES. THE PRECIP WAS MORE
CONVECTIVE IN NATURE IN NE OH/NW PA AS IT WAS BEING SUPPORTED BY
ANTHR LOW- LEVEL WIND MAX TIED TO A SMALL SHRT WAVE AT MID- LEVELS
MAINLY. THERE WAS MORE LL THETA-E ADVTN IN THIS AREA THAT WAS
DESTABLIZING THE AMS ABV A SFC FRNT WHICH WAS ACRS SERN OH TO SW
PA. SO THE LL WIND MAX WAS ADVECTING MOISTURE ABV THE SFC FRNT
LEADING TO ELEVATED CONVECTIVE SHRA AND ISLD TSRA. THIS WIND MAX
MOVES E THIS MORNING AND THE MOISTURE ADVTN WEAKENS SOME BUT THERE
WILL BE INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT THRU 12Z OVER NE PA. SO WE
THINK THE PRECIP WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM-ISH IN NATURE AS IT
WORKS INTO NE PA AND SERN NY BTWN 12Z AND 15Z. BY 15Z...THERE WILL
BE ENUF MIXING IN THE BNDRY LAYER SOUTH OF THE PRECIP TO DISRUPT
THIS LL WIND MAX WHICH WILL IN EFFECT CUT OFF THE ISENTROPIC LIFT.
THUS WE EXPECT THIS PRECIP WILL WEAKEN AND FALL APART BY 15-18Z
THE LATEST.
THEN FOR THE AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE ENUF DRY AIR IN THE LL/S TO
PRECLUDE MUCH CUMULUS FORMATION FROM NC NY TO THE CATSKILLS.
FARTHER W...THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE LL MOISTURE SO I EXPECT
SCT-BKN CU AT THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER CLOUDS OVERHEAD. I DON/T
EXPECT ANY PRECIP AFTER 18Z OR SO IN NE PA/C NY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RDG AXIS WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN LAKES WITH A SFC RDG OVHD. SKIES WILL BE PC TO MO
CLR. ON THURSDAY 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO +12C WHICH TRANSLATES WITH
MIXING TO MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
FOR THURSDAY NGT...AGAIN FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED. FOR
FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATES SCT SHRA AND TSRA FORMING WITH CAPES
BTWN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG CAPES. THE NAM ALSO HAS CAPES ABV 1000
J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. BUT THE FORCING WILL BE MINIMAL AS THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE UPPER RDG AXIS. I COULD SEE AN ISLD SHRA
OR TSRA FORMING WITH LOCALLY MESOSCALE CRCLNS BUT THESE WILL BE
ISLD SO HAVE SLGHT CHC POPS...MAINLY OUR WRN CWA WHERE DEWPOINTS
AND CAPES WILL BE A BIT HIGHER.
FRIDAY NGT LOOKS FAIR AND DRY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
425 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO EXTENDED FORECAST JUST
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. AREA WILL REMAIN
UNDER A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES AND JUST LOW CHC POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS HUMIDITIES
INCREASE. NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. DRY AND
COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
2 PM UPDATE...
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKED GOOD. WARM AND DRY MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND THEN BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
VERY WARM WITH HUMIDITY THIS WEEKEND UNDER A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE JUST OF THE CWA IN SE CANADA
WHICH STAYS THERE ALL OF THE LONG TERM. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS
WHERE THIS SETS UP AND STAYS. MODELS DIFFER ON THIS. WPC LEANS ON
EURO WHICH KEEPS THE BOUNDARY IN CANADA WHILE THE GFS DROPS IT
INTO PA SUN AND MON. HAVE FOLLOWED WPC AND HAVE CHC POPS FAR NORTH
SAT NGT THEN EVERYONE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING. AT KRME/KSYR, JUST VFR WITH SCT MID/HIGH CLOUDS THEN SKC
OVERNIGHT. A MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH NRN PA IS PRODUCING
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NE PA. AT KITH/KELM/KBGM, CIGS AROUND 5K FT
WILL LIFT AND SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY SKC
OVERNIGHT. AT KELM, IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 09Z-12Z.
AT KAVP, A ROUND OF MVFR/VFR SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL
THROUGH MID MORNING. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND SCATTERED OUT
LATE TODAY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...
THU-SUN...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
429 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH TODAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL MOVE ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE FRONT BRINGING SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE ACROSS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON
THURSDAY BRINGING WARM AND DRY WEATHER WITH IT. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES REGION TO THE UPPER
MOHAWK VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS EARLY THIS
MORNING...ONE MOVING ACRS SC NY AND NE PA AND ANOTHER ONE ACRS NE
OH TO NW PA. THE FIRST BATCH OF PRECIP OVER SC NY/NE PA WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT IN ADVANCE OF A SHRT WAVE THAT WAS
MOVING ACRS THE ERN LAKES INTO NY STATE. THIS FEATURE WAS
SUPPORTING A SWRLY LOW-LEVEL WIND MAX WHICH WAS RISING
ISENTROPICALLY ACRS SC NY/NE PA AND LEADING TO A MORE STRATIFORM
RAIN. THIS WAVE WILL CONT EAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND TAKE THIS
PRECIPITATION EAST OF SC NY SO HAVE POPS FOR SHRA WINDING DOWN BY
ARND 12Z OR SO IN SC NY. RADAR SHOWS THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP IN
NW OH AND NW PA HEADING JUST S OF E TWD NE PA AND SULLIVAN CO NY
PRIMARILY. BELIEVE THE RAP HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THE NEXT PRECIP SHIELD BASED ON CURRENT RADAR DATA WHEN LOOKING AT
THE OTHER HI RES MODEL REFLECTIVITIES. THE PRECIP WAS MORE
CONVECTIVE IN NATURE IN NE OH/NW PA AS IT WAS BEING SUPPORTED BY
ANTHR LOW- LEVEL WIND MAX TIED TO A SMALL SHRT WAVE AT MID- LEVELS
MAINLY. THERE WAS MORE LL THETA-E ADVTN IN THIS AREA THAT WAS
DESTABLIZING THE AMS ABV A SFC FRNT WHICH WAS ACRS SERN OH TO SW
PA. SO THE LL WIND MAX WAS ADVECTING MOISTURE ABV THE SFC FRNT
LEADING TO ELEVATED CONVECTIVE SHRA AND ISLD TSRA. THIS WIND MAX
MOVES E THIS MORNING AND THE MOISTURE ADVTN WEAKENS SOME BUT THERE
WILL BE INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT THRU 12Z OVER NE PA. SO WE
THINK THE PRECIP WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM-ISH IN NATURE AS IT
WORKS INTO NE PA AND SERN NY BTWN 12Z AND 15Z. BY 15Z...THERE WILL
BE ENUF MIXING IN THE BNDRY LAYER SOUTH OF THE PRECIP TO DISRUPT
THIS LL WIND MAX WHICH WILL IN EFFECT CUT OFF THE ISENTROPIC LIFT.
THUS WE EXPECT THIS PRECIP WILL WEAKEN AND FALL APART BY 15-18Z
THE LATEST.
THEN FOR THE AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE ENUF DRY AIR IN THE LL/S TO
PRECLUDE MUCH CUMULUS FORMATION FROM NC NY TO THE CATSKILLS.
FARTHER W...THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE LL MOISTURE SO I EXPECT
SCT-BKN CU AT THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER CLOUDS OVERHEAD. I DON/T
EXPECT ANY PRECIP AFTER 18Z OR SO IN NE PA/C NY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RDG AXIS WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN LAKES WITH A SFC RDG OVHD. SKIES WILL BE PC TO MO
CLR. ON THURSDAY 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO +12C WHICH TRANSLATES WITH
MIXING TO MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
FOR THURSDAY NGT...AGAIN FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED. FOR
FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATES SCT SHRA AND TSRA FORMING WITH CAPES
BTWN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG CAPES. THE NAM ALSO HAS CAPES ABV 1000
J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. BUT THE FORCING WILL BE MINIMAL AS THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE UPPER RDG AXIS. I COULD SEE AN ISLD SHRA
OR TSRA FORMING WITH LOCALLY MESOSCALE CRCLNS BUT THESE WILL BE
ISLD SO HAVE SLGHT CHC POPS...MAINLY OUR WRN CWA WHERE DEWPOINTS
AND CAPES WILL BE A BIT HIGHER.
FRIDAY NGT LOOKS FAIR AND DRY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
425 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO EXTENDED FORECAST JUST
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. AREA WILL REMAIN
UNDER A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES AND JUST LOW CHC POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS HUMIDITIES
INCREASE. NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. DRY AND
COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
2 PM UPDATE...
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKED GOOD. WARM AND DRY MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND THEN BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
VERY WARM WITH HUMIDITY THIS WEEKEND UNDER A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE JUST OF THE CWA IN SE CANADA
WHICH STAYS THERE ALL OF THE LONG TERM. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS
WHERE THIS SETS UP AND STAYS. MODELS DIFFER ON THIS. WPC LEANS ON
EURO WHICH KEEPS THE BOUNDARY IN CANADA WHILE THE GFS DROPS IT
INTO PA SUN AND MON. HAVE FOLLOWED WPC AND HAVE CHC POPS FAR NORTH
SAT NGT THEN EVERYONE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING. AT KRME/KSYR, A MID DECK WILL PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK
THEN JUST CI FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. A MID LEVEL WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE SRN TIER OF NYS IS PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION. AT KITH, LIGHT UNRESTRICTED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL 09Z THEN CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
WITH JUST CI EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. AT KELM/KBGM, UNRESTRICTED
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK WITH MVFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE AT KELM BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. CIGS WILL LIFT THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WITH JUST CI BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AT KAVP, A ROUND OF
VFR SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 12Z-15Z. CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT TO A MID DECK BY MID AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...
THU-SUN...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
342 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH TODAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL MOVE ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE FRONT BRINGING SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE ACROSS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON
THURSDAY BRINGING WARM AND DRY WEATHER WITH IT. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES REGION TO THE UPPER
MOHAWK VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS EARLY THIS
MORNING...ONE MOVING ACRS SC NY AND NE PA AND ANOTHER ONE ACRS NE
OH TO NW PA. THE FIRST BATCH OF PRECIP OVER SC NY/NE PA WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT IN ADVANCE OF A SHRT WAVE THAT WAS
MOVING ACRS THE ERN LAKES INTO NY STATE. THIS FEATURE WAS
SUPPORTING A SWRLY LOW-LEVEL WIND MAX WHICH WAS RISING
ISENTROPICALLY ACRS SC NY/NE PA AND LEADING TO A MORE STRATIFORM
RAIN. THIS WAVE WILL CONT EAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND TAKE THIS
PRECIPITATION EAST OF SC NY SO HAVE POPS FOR SHRA WINDING DOWN BY
ARND 12Z OR SO IN SC NY. RADAR SHOWS THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP IN
NW OH AND NW PA HEADING JUST S OF E TWD NE PA AND SULLIVAN CO NY
PRIMARILY. BELIEVE THE RAP HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THE NEXT PRECIP SHIELD BASED ON CURRENT RADAR DATA WHEN LOOKING AT
THE OTHER HI RES MODEL REFLECTIVITIES. THE PRECIP WAS MORE
CONVECTIVE IN NATURE IN NE OH/NW PA AS IT WAS BEING SUPPORTED BY
ANTHR LOW- LEVEL WIND MAX TIED TO A SMALL SHRT WAVE AT MID- LEVELS
MAINLY. THERE WAS MORE LL THETA-E ADVTN IN THIS AREA THAT WAS
DESTABLIZING THE AMS ABV A SFC FRNT WHICH WAS ACRS SERN OH TO SW
PA. SO THE LL WIND MAX WAS ADVECTING MOISTURE ABV THE SFC FRNT
LEADING TO ELEVATED CONVECTIVE SHRA AND ISLD TSRA. THIS WIND MAX
MOVES E THIS MORNING AND THE MOISTURE ADVTN WEAKENS SOME BUT THERE
WILL BE INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT THRU 12Z OVER NE PA. SO WE
THINK THE PRECIP WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM-ISH IN NATURE AS IT
WORKS INTO NE PA AND SERN NY BTWN 12Z AND 15Z. BY 15Z...THERE WILL
BE ENUF MIXING IN THE BNDRY LAYER SOUTH OF THE PRECIP TO DISRUPT
THIS LL WIND MAX WHICH WILL IN EFFECT CUT OFF THE ISENTROPIC LIFT.
THUS WE EXPECT THIS PRECIP WILL WEAKEN AND FALL APART BY 15-18Z
THE LATEST.
THEN FOR THE AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE ENUF DRY AIR IN THE LL/S TO
PRECLUDE MUCH CUMULUS FORMATION FROM NC NY TO THE CATSKILLS.
FARTHER W...THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE LL MOISTURE SO I EXPECT
SCT-BKN CU AT THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER CLOUDS OVERHEAD. I DON/T
EXPECT ANY PRECIP AFTER 18Z OR SO IN NE PA/C NY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RDG AXIS WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN LAKES WITH A SFC RDG OVHD. SKIES WILL BE PC TO MO
CLR. ON THURSDAY 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO +12C WHICH TRANSLATES WITH
MIXING TO MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
FOR THURSDAY NGT...AGAIN FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED. FOR
FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATES SCT SHRA AND TSRA FORMING WITH CAPES
BTWN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG CAPES. THE NAM ALSO HAS CAPES ABV 1000
J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. BUT THE FORCING WILL BE MINIMAL AS THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE UPPER RDG AXIS. I COULD SEE AN ISLD SHRA
OR TSRA FORMING WITH LOCALLY MESOSCALE CRCLNS BUT THESE WILL BE
ISLD SO HAVE SLGHT CHC POPS...MAINLY OUR WRN CWA WHERE DEWPOINTS
AND CAPES WILL BE A BIT HIGHER.
FRIDAY NGT LOOKS FAIR AND DRY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKED GOOD. WARM AND DRY MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND THEN BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
VERY WARM WITH HUMIDITY THIS WEEKEND UNDER A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE JUST OF THE CWA IN SE CANADA
WHICH STAYS THERE ALL OF THE LONG TERM. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS
WHERE THIS SETS UP AND STAYS. MODELS DIFFER ON THIS. WPC LEANS ON
EURO WHICH KEEPS THE BOUNDARY IN CANADA WHILE THE GFS DROPS IT
INTO PA SUN AND MON. HAVE FOLLOWED WPC AND HAVE CHC POPS FAR NORTH
SAT NGT THEN EVERYONE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING. AT KRME/KSYR, A MID DECK WILL PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK
THEN JUST CI FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. A MID LEVEL WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE SRN TIER OF NYS IS PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION. AT KITH, LIGHT UNRESTRICTED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL 09Z THEN CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
WITH JUST CI EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. AT KELM/KBGM, UNRESTRICTED
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK WITH MVFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE AT KELM BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. CIGS WILL LIFT THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WITH JUST CI BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AT KAVP, A ROUND OF
VFR SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 12Z-15Z. CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT TO A MID DECK BY MID AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...
THU-SUN...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
254 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH TODAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL MOVE ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE FRONT BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN NEW YORK
AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
ON THURSDAY BRINGING WARM AND DRY WEATHER WITH IT. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS EARLY THIS
MORNING...ONE MOVING ACRS SC NY AND NE PA AND ANOTHER ONE ACRS NE
OH TO NW PA. THE FIRST BATCH OF PRECIP OVER SC NY/NE PA WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT IN ADVANCE OF A SHRT WAVE THAT WAS
MOVING ACRS THE ERN LAKES INTO NY STATE. THIS FEATURE WAS
SUPPORTING A SWRLY LOW-LEVEL WIND MAX WHICH WAS RISING
ISENTROPICALLY ACRS SC NY/NE PA AND LEADING TO A MORE STRATIFORM
RAIN. THIS WAVE WILL CONT EAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND TAKE THIS
PRECIPITATION EAST OF SC NY SO HAVE POPS FOR SHRA WINDING DOWN BY
ARND 12Z OR SO IN SC NY. RADAR SHOWS THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP IN
NW OH AND NW PA HEADING JUST S OF E TWD NE PA AND SULLIVAN CO NY
PRIMARILY. BELIEVE THE RAP HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THE NEXT PRECIP SHIELD BASED ON CURRENT RADAR DATA WHEN LOOKING AT
THE OTHER HI RES MODEL REFLECTIVITIES. THE PRECIP WAS MORE
CONVECTIVE IN NATURE IN NE OH/NW PA AS IT WAS BEING SUPPORTED BY
ANTHR LOW- LEVEL WIND MAX TIED TO A SMALL SHRT WAVE AT MID- LEVELS
MAINLY. THERE WAS MORE LL THETA-E ADVTN IN THIS AREA THAT WAS
DESTABLIZING THE AMS ABV A SFC FRNT WHICH WAS ACRS SERN OH TO SW
PA. SO THE LL WIND MAX WAS ADVECTING MOISTURE ABV THE SFC FRNT
LEADING TO ELEVATED CONVECTIVE SHRA AND ISLD TSRA. THIS WIND MAX
MOVES E THIS MORNING AND THE MOISTURE ADVTN WEAKENS SOME BUT THERE
WILL BE INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT THRU 12Z OVER NE PA. SO WE
THINK THE PRECIP WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM-ISH IN NATURE AS IT
WORKS INTO NE PA AND SERN NY BTWN 12Z AND 15Z. BY 15Z...THERE WILL
BE ENUF MIXING IN THE BNDRY LAYER SOUTH OF THE PRECIP TO DISRUPT
THIS LL WIND MAX WHICH WILL IN EFFECT CUT OFF THE ISENTROPIC LIFT.
THUS WE EXPECT THIS PRECIP WILL WEAKEN AND FALL APART BY 15-18Z
THE LATEST.
THEN FOR THE AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE ENUF DRY AIR IN THE LL/S TO
PRECLUDE MUCH CUMULUS FORMATION FROM NC NY TO THE CATSKILLS.
FARTHER W...THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE LL MOISTURE SO I EXPECT
SCT-BKN CU AT THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER CLOUDS OVERHEAD. I DON/T
EXPECT ANY PRECIP AFTER 18Z OR SO IN NE PA/C NY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS WILL BE WEAKENING AND PUSHING SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS
NORTHERN PA AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY COOLER
DAY ACROSS THOSE AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A RETURN TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WARM AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKED GOOD. WARM AND DRY MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND THEN BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
VERY WARM WITH HUMIDITY THIS WEEKEND UNDER A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE JUST OF THE CWA IN SE CANADA
WHICH STAYS THERE ALL OF THE LONG TERM. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS
WHERE THIS SETS UP AND STAYS. MODELS DIFFER ON THIS. WPC LEANS ON
EURO WHICH KEEPS THE BOUNDARY IN CANADA WHILE THE GFS DROPS IT
INTO PA SUN AND MON. HAVE FOLLOWED WPC AND HAVE CHC POPS FAR NORTH
SAT NGT THEN EVERYONE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING. AT KRME/KSYR, A MID DECK WILL PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK
THEN JUST CI FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. A MID LEVEL WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE SRN TIER OF NYS IS PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION. AT KITH, LIGHT UNRESTRICTED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL 09Z THEN CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
WITH JUST CI EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. AT KELM/KBGM, UNRESTRICTED
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK WITH MVFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE AT KELM BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. CIGS WILL LIFT THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WITH JUST CI BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AT KAVP, A ROUND OF
VFR SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 12Z-15Z. CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT TO A MID DECK BY MID AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...
THU-SUN...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
135 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL MOVE ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE FRONT BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN TO SOUTHERN NEW
YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY
BRINGING WARM DRY WEATHER. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH-BASED, LIGHT SHOWERS ARE SLIDING EASTWARD TOWARD THE TWIN
TIERS, BUT PROVIDING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL. LATEST HRRR
AND RAP GENERATE QPF TOTALS BELOW PREVIOUS FORECAST, AND EVEN
THESE MIGHT BE TOO HIGH GIVEN THE ONE AND THREE HOUR RAINFALL
RATES DEPICTED FROM THE RADAR.
HAVE LOWERED QPF TOTALS THROUGH SUNRISE AND REDUCED THE POPS.
PREV DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST QUESTION FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE IMPACT OF A SHORT
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF RAIN MOVING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES TOWARD NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHERN NY. THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND SREF ARE ALL IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PA THIS EVENING
WITH LOWER CHANCES FARTHER NORTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. THE IDEA THAT
RAIN MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH VERY FAR EAST OF I-81 IN NY STATE
APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THAT AREA OVERNIGHT. LATEST RADAR
ANIMATIONS ARE ALREADY INDICATING A SLUG OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
MOVING FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO ACROSS SW NY AND NORTHWEST PA. THE
LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATE THAT SOME OF THIS RAIN WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NY THROUGH MID- EVENING REACHING THE
CATSKILLS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THIS SCENARIO IS A BIT FARTHER NORTH
AND EAST THAN SOME OF THE LOWER-RESOLUTION OPERATIONAL MODELS.
BASED ON ALL OF THIS HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT FOR NORTHERN PA AND THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY WITH
JUST CHC POPS FARTHER NORTH. THUNDER CHANCES LOOK LOW WITH NO
INSTABILITY SHOWING UP ON ANY MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BE WEAKENING AND PUSHING SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS
NORTHERN PA AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY COOLER
DAY ACROSS THOSE AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A RETURN TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WARM AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKED GOOD. WARM AND DRY MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND THEN BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
VERY WARM WITH HUMIDITY THIS WEEKEND UNDER A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE JUST OF THE CWA IN SE CANADA
WHICH STAYS THERE ALL OF THE LONG TERM. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS
WHERE THIS SETS UP AND STAYS. MODELS DIFFER ON THIS. WPC LEANS ON
EURO WHICH KEEPS THE BOUNDARY IN CANADA WHILE THE GFS DROPS IT
INTO PA SUN AND MON. HAVE FOLLOWED WPC AND HAVE CHC POPS FAR NORTH
SAT NGT THEN EVERYONE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING. AT KRME/KSYR, A MID DECK WILL PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK
THEN JUST CI FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. A MID LEVEL WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE SRN TIER OF NYS IS PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION. AT KITH, LIGHT UNRESTRICTED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL 09Z THEN CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
WITH JUST CI EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. AT KELM/KBGM, UNRESTRICTED
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK WITH MVFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE AT KELM BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. CIGS WILL LIFT THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WITH JUST CI BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AT KAVP, A ROUND OF
VFR SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 12Z-15Z. CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT TO A MID DECK BY MID AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...
THU-SUN...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...DJP/MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1259 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
FIRST BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NOW ALONG THE MANITOBA/NORTH
DAKOTA. NEXT BATCH SE ND INTO NE ND. DRY SLOT BRIEFLY SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THIS BATCH OVER SW MN INTO NCNTRL IOWA WHERE SOME
CLEARING OCCURRING. SEEING A FEW STORMS FIRING IN THIS HEATED AERA
EAST OF SIOUX FALLS. ALSO FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE STORMS SOUTH OF
BISMARCK INTO CNTRL SD. IDEA IS FOR THE BATCH OF SHOWERS IN SE ND
WILL MOVE NORTH. A DRY SLOT OR BREAK MAY IMPACT SE ND/WCNTRL MN
FOR A TIME AFTER THIS MID AFTN AND THEN ENOUGH INSTABILITY ARRIVES
TONIGHT FOR ISOLD T AND A FEW SHOWERS TONIGHT. INSTABILITY IS
MOSTLY CONFINED TO CNTRL MN HOWEVER. OVERALL TREND IN GRIDS IS TO
KEEP A HIGH POP DUE TO FAST MOVEMENT OF THESE BANDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
TIMING AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL BE
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE PERIOD.
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS STILL DOWN OVER COLORADO AND WESTERN
KANSAS...BUT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY
MOVED INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH SOME 850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION. THIS WAA SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. THE RAP HAS DONE A DECENT JOB OF CAPTURING THE
LEADING BAND...AND IT HAS A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE
WAA BAND WHICH SEEMS TO FIT RADAR OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AT THE CURRENT
TIME. THINK THAT THE REALLY WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NEB/SD AND WE GET MORE WIDESPREAD UPPER
FORCING. CONTINUED THE TREND OF HOLDING OFF ON THE CATEGORICAL
POPS UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF ELEVATED CAPE
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OBSERVED...SO WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION FOR THIS MORNING AND THEN MATCH THUNDER
TO SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS WE GET SOME SFC BASED CAPE MOVING
INTO THE REGION. CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING A
HUGE AMOUNT TODAY...BUT GIVEN THAT WE ARE STILL IN THE 50S AND
EVEN 60S THE WARM START WILL HELP US REACH THE 70S AGAIN.
TONIGHT...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT INTO THE CWA...WEAKENING
AS IT MOVES THROUGH. EVEN WITH THE WEAKENING UPPER SYSTEM THERE
SHOULD STILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND
CONTINUED WITH HIGH POPS THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CANADA BY THURSDAY AND PHASE
WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE. THAT SHOULD HELP PUSH A COLD
FRONT INTO THE CWA FOR THURSDAY...AND THERE SHOULD BE CONTINUED
PRECIP WITH THE FRONT. THE NAM BRINGS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE BEHIND
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WHICH SETS OFF A LOT OF QPF ALONG THE
FRONT...BUT IS THE ODD MODEL OUT. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGH POPS
TRANSITIONING OVER TO THE EASTERN CWA AS PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY DROP IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CWA AS THE FRONT COMES DOWN.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS BRING THROUGH
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SO CONTINUED TO LINGER SHOWERS AT
LEAST OVER THE EASTERN CWA. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER AS THERE
SEEMS TO BE GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850MB TEMPS BELOW ZERO COMING
DOWN...ALTHOUGH FORTUNATELY AFTER THE PRECIP ENDS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. MOST OF FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY BUT COOL AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE USA. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER THAN THE
PAST WEEK AND HIGHS SHOULD ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 50S AND COULD DROP
BELOW FREEZING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SPLIT FLOW WAS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH
NORTHERN STREAM OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. LONG WAVE TROUGH/RIDGE OVER THE GULF
OF AK/WESTERN CANADA WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE WEST COAST/CENTRAL
PLAINS RESPECTIVELY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON MON, BUT SURFACE FEATURES WERE FARTHER NORTH AND SLOWER
ON THE ECMWF. WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM, THE PATTERN BECAME 180
DEGREES OUT OF PHASE FOR MON AND TUE. THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING
FASTER WHILE THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE
RUNS. WILL BLEND THE ECMWF AND GFS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
LARGE COLORADO LOW TYPE SYSTEM NOW ENVELOPING THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR SIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN... WITH SUCCESSIVE
WAVES OF HEAVIER RAIN AND ASSOCIATED IFR CIGS AND VSBYS. WIDESPREAD
DEEP CONVECTION WITH TSTMS IS NOT ANTICAPATED EXPECTED..THO AN
ISOLATED TSTM IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BAND EXPECTED LIFT THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN RRV LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY BLAYER FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY...BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...TURNING NORTHWESTERLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...GUST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1249 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
QUICK UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST TRENDS. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE MADE.
LATEST RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO FOLLOW CLOSELY WITH THE HIGH-RES
MODELS. A DRY SLOT IS FORMING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS AREA WILL LIKELY SEE A BREAK FROM THE RAIN FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS...AND EVEN
SOME THUNDERSTORMS...ARE LIKELY TO FORM AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 931 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE HEAVIEST RAIN BAND STRETCHES
FROM SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA (BOWMAN AND HETTINGER)...NORTH AND
EAST THROUGH BISMARCK AND JAMESTOWN. THIS BAND OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS INDICATE THIS BAND OF RAIN WILL PARK
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY...BRINGING
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO AREAS INCLUDING
CROSBY...WILLISTON...WATFORD CITY...NEW TOWN...KILLDEER AND
DICKINSON. FURTHER TO THE EAST...ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THE HIGH-RES MODELS INDICATE AFTERNOON HEATING WILL PRODUCE
SOME INSTABILITY...LEADING TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL
COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES FOR LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE
PUSHING INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
GENERATING PRECIPITATION UP ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER AND MOVING
NORTH WITH TIME. CURRENT FORECAST WITH LIKELY POPS TRANSITIONING
TO CATEGORICAL REMAINS ON TRACK...NO UPDATES TO CURRENT FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAINS ON INCOMING PRECIPITATION AND THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FIRST WAVE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVED INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
SHORTLY AROUND 07 UTC. THE HRRR DID A DECENT JOB OF TIMING THIS
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND HAS IT DIMINISHING AS IT
PROGRESSES NORTH. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH
THE LINE AND HAVE KEPT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT LINTON SHOWED HEAVY
RAIN WHILE A SHOWER WENT OVER AND REPORTED 0.20 INCHES. AT FIRST
GLANCE IT APPEARS THIS SYSTEM MAY WELL BRING THE MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL FORECASTED.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO WESTERN ND AROUND 18 UTC
WEDNESDAY AND INTO CENTRAL ND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
COINCIDE WITH 2-3 MORE EMBEDDED IMPULSES LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS BEFORE THE MAIN WAVE MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL SHOULD BE EXPERIENCED IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE...WITH STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS STILL DEPICTED FROM 0.5-1.5 INCHES. WITH BOTH THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF GENERATING 900-1200 J/KG OF MUCAPE OVER CENTRAL AND EAST
ALONG TO EAST OF THE FROPA...LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL (GREATER
THAN AN INCH) WITH CONVECTION WILL BE VERY POSSIBLE CONSIDERING
PWATS AROUND 1.25".
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
EXITING SYSTEM THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LEAVE BEHIND BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK FOR MAINLY SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY WANE THURSDAY/THURSDAY EVENING FROM
WEST TO EAST AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES THURSDAY
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND +1C FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 30S. AREAS OF FROST STILL APPEAR LIKELY DURING THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL
REACH INTO THE LOWER 60S TUESDAY. DRY BUT COOL FOR FRIDAY...THEN
THE NEXT CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL EJECT OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY. THE LATEST GFS KEEPS
THE PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND JUST ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF
ALSO FOLLOWS THIS IDEA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THEN PUSHES
THE PRECIPITATION BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THE SUPERBLEND ADVERTISES A ECMWF SOLUTION DURING
THIS PERIOD. IF THIS DOES COME TRUE...850MB TEMPS OF -2C MAY YIELD
SOME WET SNOW. ANY SHIFT FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED
MONITORING AS PRECIPITATION TYPES AND CHANCES WOULD CHANGE. DRIER
WEATHER SLATED FOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OF AND ON THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CONFIDENCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT ANY ONE INDIVIDUAL
TERMINAL IS MINIMAL. THEREFORE...ONLY MENTIONED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE VICINITY OF KBIS/KMOT/KJMS AS THOSE AREAS ARE THE MOST LIKELY
TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS NEARBY THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH KISN AROUND 21Z AND WILL
PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. BEHIND
THE FRONT...WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1027 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
TWEEKED POPS A BIT TO SHOW A BIT HIGHER POPS WITH CURRENT SHOWER
BAND MOVING THRU THE MID RRV INTO CNTRL ND. INSTABILITY IS VERY
LOW...EXCEPT IN FAR NCNTRL MN WHERE LIGHTNING STRIKES OCCURRING
WITH SOME CONVECTION ALONG LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE. FOR THE MOST
PART TODAY...EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES WITH OCNL SHOWERS. THUNDER
CHANCES PER RAP MODEL SEEM VERY LOW. HOWEVER RAP MODEL TEMPS AND A
FEW OTHER MODELS SHOW A WARM TEMP AREA FROM THE TWIN CITIES
NORTHWEST TOWARD WADENA THEN TOWARD FARGO THIS AFTN WITH HIGH
TEMPS 75-80. THIS SEEMS TOO WARM. DID LOWER TEMPS A TAD AS UNLESS
THERE IS SOME SUN CHANCE OF GETTING OUT OF THE 60S IS RATHER LOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
TIMING AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL BE
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE PERIOD.
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS STILL DOWN OVER COLORADO AND WESTERN
KANSAS...BUT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY
MOVED INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH SOME 850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION. THIS WAA SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. THE RAP HAS DONE A DECENT JOB OF CAPTURING THE
LEADING BAND...AND IT HAS A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE
WAA BAND WHICH SEEMS TO FIT RADAR OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AT THE CURRENT
TIME. THINK THAT THE REALLY WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NEB/SD AND WE GET MORE WIDESPREAD UPPER
FORCING. CONTINUED THE TREND OF HOLDING OFF ON THE CATEGORICAL
POPS UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF ELEVATED CAPE
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OBSERVED...SO WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION FOR THIS MORNING AND THEN MATCH THUNDER
TO SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS WE GET SOME SFC BASED CAPE MOVING
INTO THE REGION. CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING A
HUGE AMOUNT TODAY...BUT GIVEN THAT WE ARE STILL IN THE 50S AND
EVEN 60S THE WARM START WILL HELP US REACH THE 70S AGAIN.
TONIGHT...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT INTO THE CWA...WEAKENING
AS IT MOVES THROUGH. EVEN WITH THE WEAKENING UPPER SYSTEM THERE
SHOULD STILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND
CONTINUED WITH HIGH POPS THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CANADA BY THURSDAY AND PHASE
WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE. THAT SHOULD HELP PUSH A COLD
FRONT INTO THE CWA FOR THURSDAY...AND THERE SHOULD BE CONTINUED
PRECIP WITH THE FRONT. THE NAM BRINGS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE BEHIND
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WHICH SETS OFF A LOT OF QPF ALONG THE
FRONT...BUT IS THE ODD MODEL OUT. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGH POPS
TRANSITIONING OVER TO THE EASTERN CWA AS PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY DROP IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CWA AS THE FRONT COMES DOWN.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS BRING THROUGH
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SO CONTINUED TO LINGER SHOWERS AT
LEAST OVER THE EASTERN CWA. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER AS THERE
SEEMS TO BE GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850MB TEMPS BELOW ZERO COMING
DOWN...ALTHOUGH FORTUNATELY AFTER THE PRECIP ENDS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. MOST OF FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY BUT COOL AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE USA. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER THAN THE
PAST WEEK AND HIGHS SHOULD ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 50S AND COULD DROP
BELOW FREEZING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SPLIT FLOW WAS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH
NORTHERN STREAM OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. LONG WAVE TROUGH/RIDGE OVER THE GULF
OF AK/WESTERN CANADA WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE WEST COAST/CENTRAL
PLAINS RESPECTIVELY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON MON, BUT SURFACE FEATURES WERE FARTHER NORTH AND SLOWER
ON THE ECMWF. WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM, THE PATTERN BECAME 180
DEGREES OUT OF PHASE FOR MON AND TUE. THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING
FASTER WHILE THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE
RUNS. WILL BLEND THE ECMWF AND GFS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
MVFR AND EVEN SOME IFR CIGS HAVE ENTERED THE CWA AS MOISTURE FLOWS
UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE APPROACHING KGFK AND KDVL...BUT COVERAGE IS HIT OR MISS SO
WILL JUST INCLUDE VCSH FOR NOW. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL MOVE IN
THIS AFTERNOON...SO WHEN PREVAILING LIGHT RAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. MODELS PERSIST IN LIFTING CIGS A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON SO KEPT PREVIOUS SHIFTS IDEA OF 3500 FT CLOUDS. THINK
THAT RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SPOTTY TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD...SO TRANSITIONED BACK TO VCSH. CIGS SHOULD BE BACK DOWN TO
MVFR AS WE MOVE TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM
THE SOUTHEAST WITH SOME GUSTS ABOVE 20 KTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD GO DOWN TONIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH
APPROACHES.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
942 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE HEAVIEST RAIN BAND STRETCHESFROM
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA (BOWMAN AND HETTINGER)...NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH BISMARCK AND JAMESTOWN. THIS BAND OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. LATEST
HIGH-RES MODELS INDICATE THIS BAND OF RAIN WILL PARK OVER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY...BRINGING LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN TO AREAS INCLUDING CROSBY...WILLISTON...WATFORD
CITY...NEW TOWN...KILLDEER AND DICKINSON. FURTHER TO THE
EAST...ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THE HIGH-RES MODELS
INDICATE AFTERNOON HEATING WILL PRODUCE SOME INSTABILITY...LEADING
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES FOR
LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE
PUSHING INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
GENERATING PRECIPITATION UP ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER AND MOVING
NORTH WITH TIME. CURRENT FORECAST WITH LIKELY POPS TRANSITIONING
TO CATEGORICAL REMAINS ON TRACK...NO UPDATES TO CURRENT FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAINS ON INCOMING PRECIPITATION AND THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FIRST WAVE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVED INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
SHORTLY AROUND 07 UTC. THE HRRR DID A DECENT JOB OF TIMING THIS
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND HAS IT DIMINISHING AS IT
PROGRESSES NORTH. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH
THE LINE AND HAVE KEPT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT LINTON SHOWED HEAVY
RAIN WHILE A SHOWER WENT OVER AND REPORTED 0.20 INCHES. AT FIRST
GLANCE IT APPEARS THIS SYSTEM MAY WELL BRING THE MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL FORECASTED.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO WESTERN ND AROUND 18 UTC
WEDNESDAY AND INTO CENTRAL ND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
COINCIDE WITH 2-3 MORE EMBEDDED IMPULSES LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS BEFORE THE MAIN WAVE MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL SHOULD BE EXPERIENCED IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE...WITH STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS STILL DEPICTED FROM 0.5-1.5 INCHES. WITH BOTH THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF GENERATING 900-1200 J/KG OF MUCAPE OVER CENTRAL AND EAST
ALONG TO EAST OF THE FROPA...LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL (GREATER
THAN AN INCH) WITH CONVECTION WILL BE VERY POSSIBLE CONSIDERING
PWATS AROUND 1.25".
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
EXITING SYSTEM THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LEAVE BEHIND BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK FOR MAINLY SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY WANE THURSDAY/THURSDAY EVENING FROM
WEST TO EAST AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES THURSDAY
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND +1C FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 30S. AREAS OF FROST STILL APPEAR LIKELY DURING THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL
REACH INTO THE LOWER 60S TUESDAY. DRY BUT COOL FOR FRIDAY...THEN
THE NEXT CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL EJECT OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY. THE LATEST GFS KEEPS
THE PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND JUST ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF
ALSO FOLLOWS THIS IDEA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THEN PUSHES
THE PRECIPITATION BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THE SUPERBLEND ADVERTISES A ECMWF SOLUTION DURING
THIS PERIOD. IF THIS DOES COME TRUE...850MB TEMPS OF -2C MAY YIELD
SOME WET SNOW. ANY SHIFT FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED
MONITORING AS PRECIPITATION TYPES AND CHANCES WOULD CHANGE. DRIER
WEATHER SLATED FOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT ALL WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TERMINALS THROUGH THE 12 UTC TAF PERIOD. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES...ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER
AT THIS TIME BELIEVE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED AND HAVE LEFT
MENTION OF THEM OUT OF THE TAFS. IN SHOWERS AND THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT ALL CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TERMINALS.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH KISN AROUND 21 UTC AND WILL PROGRESS
SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS
WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AND SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK UP.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...MM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
615 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE
PUSHING INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
GENERATING PRECIPITATION UP ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER AND MOVING
NORTH WITH TIME. CURRENT FORECAST WITH LIKELY POPS TRANSITIONING
TO CATEGORICAL REMAINS ON TRACK...NO UPDATES TO CURRENT FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAINS ON INCOMING PRECIPITATION AND THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FIRST WAVE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVED INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
SHORTLY AROUND 07 UTC. THE HRRR DID A DECENT JOB OF TIMING THIS
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND HAS IT DIMINISHING AS IT
PROGRESSES NORTH. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH
THE LINE AND HAVE KEPT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT LINTON SHOWED HEAVY
RAIN WHILE A SHOWER WENT OVER AND REPORTED 0.20 INCHES. AT FIRST
GLANCE IT APPEARS THIS SYSTEM MAY WELL BRING THE MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL FORECASTED.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO WESTERN ND AROUND 18 UTC
WEDNESDAY AND INTO CENTRAL ND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
COINCIDE WITH 2-3 MORE EMBEDDED IMPULSES LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS BEFORE THE MAIN WAVE MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL SHOULD BE EXPERIENCED IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE...WITH STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS STILL DEPICTED FROM 0.5-1.5 INCHES. WITH BOTH THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF GENERATING 900-1200 J/KG OF MUCAPE OVER CENTRAL AND EAST
ALONG TO EAST OF THE FROPA...LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL (GREATER
THAN AN INCH) WITH CONVECTION WILL BE VERY POSSIBLE CONSIDERING
PWATS AROUND 1.25".
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
EXITING SYSTEM THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LEAVE BEHIND BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK FOR MAINLY SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY WANE THURSDAY/THURSDAY EVENING FROM
WEST TO EAST AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES THURSDAY
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND +1C FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 30S. AREAS OF FROST STILL APPEAR LIKELY DURING THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL
REACH INTO THE LOWER 60S TUESDAY. DRY BUT COOL FOR FRIDAY...THEN
THE NEXT CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL EJECT OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY. THE LATEST GFS KEEPS
THE PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND JUST ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF
ALSO FOLLOWS THIS IDEA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THEN PUSHES
THE PRECIPITATION BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THE SUPERBLEND ADVERTISES A ECMWF SOLUTION DURING
THIS PERIOD. IF THIS DOES COME TRUE...850MB TEMPS OF -2C MAY YIELD
SOME WET SNOW. ANY SHIFT FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED
MONITORING AS PRECIPITATION TYPES AND CHANCES WOULD CHANGE. DRIER
WEATHER SLATED FOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT ALL WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TERMINALS THROUGH THE 12 UTC TAF PERIOD. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES...ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER
AT THIS TIME BELIEVE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED AND HAVE LEFT
MENTION OF THEM OUT OF THE TAFS. IN SHOWERS AND THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT ALL CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TERMINALS.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH KISN AROUND 21 UTC AND WILL PROGRESS
SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS
WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AND SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK UP.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...MM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
402 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
TIMING AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL BE
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE PERIOD.
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS STILL DOWN OVER COLORADO AND WESTERN
KANSAS...BUT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY
MOVED INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH SOME 850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION. THIS WAA SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. THE RAP HAS DONE A DECENT JOB OF CAPTURING THE
LEADING BAND...AND IT HAS A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE
WAA BAND WHICH SEEMS TO FIT RADAR OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AT THE CURRENT
TIME. THINK THAT THE REALLY WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NEB/SD AND WE GET MORE WIDESPREAD UPPER
FORCING. CONTINUED THE TREND OF HOLDING OFF ON THE CATEGORICAL
POPS UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF ELEVATED CAPE
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OBSERVED...SO WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION FOR THIS MORNING AND THEN MATCH THUNDER
TO SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS WE GET SOME SFC BASED CAPE MOVING
INTO THE REGION. CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING A
HUGE AMOUNT TODAY...BUT GIVEN THAT WE ARE STILL IN THE 50S AND
EVEN 60S THE WARM START WILL HELP US REACH THE 70S AGAIN.
TONIGHT...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT INTO THE CWA...WEAKENING
AS IT MOVES THROUGH. EVEN WITH THE WEAKENING UPPER SYSTEM THERE
SHOULD STILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND
CONTINUED WITH HIGH POPS THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CANADA BY THURSDAY AND PHASE
WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE. THAT SHOULD HELP PUSH A COLD
FRONT INTO THE CWA FOR THURSDAY...AND THERE SHOULD BE CONTINUED
PRECIP WITH THE FRONT. THE NAM BRINGS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE BEHIND
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WHICH SETS OFF A LOT OF QPF ALONG THE
FRONT...BUT IS THE ODD MODEL OUT. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGH POPS
TRANSITIONING OVER TO THE EASTERN CWA AS PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY DROP IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CWA AS THE FRONT COMES DOWN.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS BRING THROUGH
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SO CONTINUED TO LINGER SHOWERS AT
LEAST OVER THE EASTERN CWA. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER AS THERE
SEEMS TO BE GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850MB TEMPS BELOW ZERO COMING
DOWN...ALTHOUGH FORTUNATELY AFTER THE PRECIP ENDS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. MOST OF FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY BUT COOL AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE USA. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER THAN THE
PAST WEEK AND HIGHS SHOULD ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 50S AND COULD DROP
BELOW FREEZING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SPLIT FLOW WAS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH
NORTHERN STREAM OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. LONG WAVE TROUGH/RIDGE OVER THE GULF
OF AK/WESTERN CANADA WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE WEST COAST/CENTRAL
PLAINS RESPECTIVELY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON MON, BUT SURFACE FEATURES WERE FARTHER NORTH AND SLOWER
ON THE ECMWF. WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM, THE PATTERN BECAME 180
DEGREES OUT OF PHASE FOR MON AND TUE. THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING
FASTER WHILE THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE
RUNS. WILL BLEND THE ECMWF AND GFS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL REMAIN VFR. MVFR (POSSIBLY IFR) CIGS
WILL INVADE THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY MORNING. -RA
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE WED MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
341 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAINS ON INCOMING PRECIPITATION AND THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FIRST WAVE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVED INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
SHORTLY AROUND 07 UTC. THE HRRR DID A DECENT JOB OF TIMING THIS
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND HAS IT DIMINISHING AS IT
PROGRESSES NORTH. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH
THE LINE AND HAVE KEPT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT LINTON SHOWED HEAVY
RAIN WHILE A SHOWER WENT OVER AND REPORTED 0.20 INCHES. AT FIRST
GLANCE IT APPEARS THIS SYSTEM MAY WELL BRING THE MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL FORECASTED.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO WESTERN ND AROUND 18 UTC
WEDNESDAY AND INTO CENTRAL ND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
COINCIDE WITH 2-3 MORE EMBEDDED IMPULSES LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS BEFORE THE MAIN WAVE MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL SHOULD BE EXPERIENCED IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE...WITH STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS STILL DEPICTED FROM 0.5-1.5 INCHES. WITH BOTH THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF GENERATING 900-1200 J/KG OF MUCAPE OVER CENTRAL AND EAST
ALONG TO EAST OF THE FROPA...LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL (GREATER
THAN AN INCH) WITH CONVECTION WILL BE VERY POSSIBLE CONSIDERING
PWATS AROUND 1.25".
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
EXITING SYSTEM THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LEAVE BEHIND BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK FOR MAINLY SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY WANE THURSDAY/THURSDAY EVENING FROM
WEST TO EAST AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES THURSDAY
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND +1C FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 30S. AREAS OF FROST STILL APPEAR LIKELY DURING THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL
REACH INTO THE LOWER 60S TUESDAY. DRY BUT COOL FOR FRIDAY...THEN
THE NEXT CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL EJECT OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY. THE LATEST GFS KEEPS
THE PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND JUST ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF
ALSO FOLLOWS THIS IDEA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THEN PUSHES
THE PRECIPITATION BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THE SUPERBLEND ADVERTISES A ECMWF SOLUTION DURING
THIS PERIOD. IF THIS DOES COME TRUE...850MB TEMPS OF -2C MAY YIELD
SOME WET SNOW. ANY SHIFT FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED
MONITORING AS PRECIPITATION TYPES AND CHANCES WOULD CHANGE. DRIER
WEATHER SLATED FOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL
MAINTAIN A SOUTHEAST WIND TONIGHT. LOW CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT WITH MVFR AND SCATTERED IFR CEILINGS SPREADING NORTH
INTO KDIK-KBIS-KJMS JUST AFTER 12 UTC AND KMOT-KISN AROUND 17
UTC. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WILL KEEP MVFR CEILINGS
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT IN ANY TAF AT THIS TIME.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...MM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND
929 AM PDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING COOL AND
SHOWERY WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING DRIER AND
WARMER WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM MAY BRING COOLER AND SHOWERY WEATHER ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT UNCERTAINTY IN DETAILS REMAINS HIGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE PRIMARY FOCUS TODAY WILL BE
ON THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOSING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS WASHINGTON AND OREGON. A DISTINCT VORT MAX APPARENT
ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS IN THE PROCESS OF SWINGING ACROSS
THE CWA THIS MORNING. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON...WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH SO FAR. SUSPECT SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX WILL TEMPORARILY SQUASH CONVECTION
LATER THIS MORNING. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A SECOND WEAK VORT MAX
OVER NORTHWEST WASHINGTON...WHICH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST WILL SWING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND LIKELY
HELP CONVECTION ALONG. ALTHOUGH...THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THIS
SECOND VORT MAX DOES NOT APPEAR NEAR AS STRONG AS THE VORT MAX MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING. AS SOLAR INPUT INCREASES...EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER TO
BREAK UP WITH SOME SUNSHINE LIKELY LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
THIS SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZING QUICKLY
THOUGH. THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SUGGEST 300 TO 700 J/KG OF MU CAPE WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION THIS AFTERNOON. SOMEWHAT
SURPRISINGLY...BOTH MODELS SEEM TO BE HANDLING SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE SHORT TERM WELL SO THE AFOREMENTIONED CAPE VALUES SEEM
REASONABLE. WHILE THE FORECAST CAPE IS STILL RELATIVELY SKINNY WHEN
EXAMINING MODEL SOUNDINGS...IT IS A BIT FATTER AT -20C THAN WE
TYPICALLY SEE HERE IN THE SPRING...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO PRODUCE HAIL UP TO 1/2 INCH IN DIAMETER TODAY.
THERE IS ALSO A BIT MORE 0-6KM SHEAR FORECAST LATER
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND COAST RANGE...THAN
WE TYPICALLY SEE UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE SPRINGTIME. THIS
MAY ALSO HELP ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TO PERSIST AND TRACK A
BIT LONGER THAN NORMAL WHEN COMPARED TO OUR TYPICAL SPRINGTIME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM SCENARIO.
NAM CAPE VALUES HIGHLIGHT THE EAST SLOPES OF THE COAST RANGE AND THE
CASCADES AS THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO RECEIVE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SSEO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE PAINTS A SIMILAR PICTURE AS
WELL. MEANWHILE...THE SREF 3 HR PROBABILITY OF THUNDER IS HIGHEST
OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE VALLEY...WITH A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN THAT 3
HOUR PERIOD. THIS IS ABOUT AS HIGH AS WE CAN RECALL SEEING FROM THE
SREF THUNDERSTORM GUIDANCE. AS A RESULT...BUMPED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FROM SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE WORDING FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
ALL THIS SAID...THE LATEST HRRR DOES NOT APPEAR ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
FOR LATER TODAY SO THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND PROGRESS LATER TODAY.
EXPECT ANY LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING TO WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. /NEUMAN
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR DRY AND WARM WEATHER. INLAND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL KEEP COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
60S. SUNDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA MONDAY
CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS. THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL RESULT
IN COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 40S. TJ
&&
.AVIATION...COOL...SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN A MIX OF
FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT INCREASED SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z TODAY FOR
INLAND TAF SITES...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS AND VSBY
UNDER HEAVER SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS DISSIPATE BY
10Z THU...WITH DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MOSTLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWER
ACTIVITY INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z TODAY. SHOWERS END BETWEEN 08Z-10Z THU. /27
&&
.MARINE...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT AN OCCASIONAL SHOWER THIS MORNING...WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...WINDS
WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRES
LOOKS TO REBUILD OVER THE NE PAC ON THU...WITH THERMAL LOW PRES
BUILDING OVER THE S OREGON COAST. EXPECT A GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OF TILLAMOOK. A WEAK SYSTEM LOOKS TO
APPROACH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT IMPACTS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL.
SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 TO 8 FT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...PERIODS OF STEEP AND CHOPPY SEAS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND WITH THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM
PDT THIS MORNING.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
850 AM PDT WED MAY 6 2015
.DISCUSSION...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE BEING OBSERVED THIS
MORNING...COURTESY OF A COOL UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE REGION.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CASCADES. THE LATEST HOURLY HRRR MODEL ALSO SHOWS SHOWERS
MOVING INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. WE HAVE INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE UMPQUA BASIN AND IN NORTHERN LAKE AND
KLAMATH COUNTIES BASED ON THIS LATEST GUIDANCE. ADDITIONALLY...ENOUGH
INSTABILITY EXISTS TO GENERATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A
NORTH TO SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINES WITH MODERATE NORTHERLY
700MB WINDS.
LASTLY...WE`LL BE EXAMINING THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST CONDITIONS
TONIGHT. THIS MORNING...LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAINED ABOVE
CRITICAL VALUES THANKS TO SOME CLOUD COVER AND SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. TONIGHT WE ARE AGAIN EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS OVER MOST
SOUTHERN OREGON VALLEYS...THOUGH SOME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
LOCATIONS COULD SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES. WE`LL ADDRESS THIS IN
THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.
PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS ON THE
UPCOMING WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 06/12Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT FOR TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS IN SHOWERS
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN WITH SOME HIGHER TERRAIN
OCCASIONALLY BECOMING OBSCURED. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR ALL TERMINALS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT WEDNESDAY 6 MAY 2015...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO THIS WEEKEND. A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE
COAST WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN WEAKEN THIS
WEEKEND. MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SMALL CRAFT, BUT THE MODELS HINT
THAT WINDS COULD BRIEFLY REACH GALES OVER A SMALL PORTION OF THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 218 AM PDT WED MAY 6 2015/
DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS
MORNING HAS MADE LESS PROGRESS IN OUR DIRECTION THAN EXPECTED, BUT
NEVERTHELESS, IT CONTINUES TO MEANDER TO THE SOUTH. LATEST
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SHOWS THE LOW OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
OREGON THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
BY TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM HAS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, SO
IT ISN`T EXPECTED TO DO MUCH OVER OUR AREA, BUT IT WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADE CREST EASTWARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR A CHANGE TODAY.
SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES, THEN
THEY WILL REDEVELOP TOMORROW, PRIMARILY OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC
COUNTIES IN CALIFORNIA. THE ONE THING THAT MAY BE A MINOR IMPACT
TOMORROW IS WIND ON THE EAST SIDE. THE LOW WILL BE VERTICALLY
STACKED, AND AS IT PULLS TO THE SOUTH, STRONG GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL MIX DOWN OVER EASTERN KLAMATH, LAKE, AND MODOC
COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON. WHILE FORECAST WIND SPEEDS FALL SHORT
OF ADVISORY LEVEL, WINDS MAY GUST TO 40 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.
AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST ON FRIDAY, A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE PACNW WHICH WILL MOVE OVER
US DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING US MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY
WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN BRIEFLY TAKES ON THE LOOK OF AN
OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT THEN THE RIDGE GETS PINCHED OFF
AND MOVES NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH ALLOWS LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE
OVER US FROM THE WEST. WHILE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION
OF THE VARIOUS FEATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE
ON THE BASIC EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN. IF THIS HAPPENS, WE SHOULD
SEE COOLER, SHOWERY WEATHER EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. -WRIGHT
FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 2 AM PDT WEDNESDAY, MAY 6, 2015...AN UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH A COOL POOL ALOFT AT
500 MB WITH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -27 AND -29 C MOVING OVERHEAD AT
THE TIME OF MAX HEATING RESULTING IN INCREASING MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. THE MODELS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WARRANT
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADES EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MODELS PUTS THE GREATEST INSTABILITY
ALONG THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SO IT`S POSSIBLE MOST
OF THE ISOLATED STORMS WILL OCCUR THERE, BUT THERE`S ALSO A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THESE STORMS TO BE RAIN PRODUCERS. THE UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN CAL ON THURSDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED STORMS CONFINED TO MODOC COUNTY. HOWEVER THE MODELS SHOW
700 MB WINDS INCREASING BETWEEN 30-40 KTS FROM THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND THIS ALONG WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY AND TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT COULD RESULT IN SOME OF THOSE
STRONGER WINDS MIXING DOWN AT THE SURFACE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES. THIS COULD RESULT IN MODERATE RECOVERIES LATE TONIGHT
ALONG THE MID SLOPES AND RIDGES, BUT MIN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE HIGHER COMPARED TO TODAY WHICH IS A
GOOD THING. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM
PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
$$
NSK/TRW/MAP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1141 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. IT WILL STAY
MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE SFC WAS DRAPED NEARLY EAST/WEST
ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE LATE THIS MORNING. THE GREATEST SLOPE
OF THE 925-850 MB BOUNDARY IS OVER THE REGION NEAR INTESTATE 80.
A COMPACT AND FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE ALOFT RIDING ESE OVER THIS
BOUNDARY LED TO A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN EARLIER IN
THE DAY...WITH A FEW DISCRETE TSRA NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 IN CENTRAL PENN.
LATEST...14Z HRRR CONFIRMS THAT THIS PRECIP WILL EXIT THE SUSQ
VALLEY SHORTLY...FOLLOWED BY A LULL IN THE PRECIP FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80
AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT OCCURS...AND SKIES STAY MAINLY
CLOUDY.
THE INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY POP SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSRA DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON - MAINLY
NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF RT22/322 IN SOUTHERN PENN.
THE COVERAGE WILL BE GENERALLY SCATTERED...AND IN A FEW CLUSTERS.
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PULSE UP PRETTY HIGH WHERE SFC-BASED
CAPES CLIMB ABOVE 1300 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM THE WNW WILL BE
ON THE WEAK SIDE...SO PEAKS GUSTS IN THE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD BE
BELOW 40 MPH WITH SOME SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS.
MAX TEMPS IN THE N WILL BE IN THE L-M60S...BUT GET INTO THE
M-U70S IN THE S. THESE ARE PRETTY NORMAL TEMPS FOR EARLY
MAY. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY BY FAR OVER THE
UPCOMING 7 DAYS /OR MORE/.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL DWINDLE IN THE EVENING...GENERALLY BEING CONFINED TO
THE LAURELS/SC MTNS AFTER DARK. THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE
RAIN-FREE...BUT CLOUDS COULD CONTINUE TO COVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE WEST AND FOG IS POSSIBLE IF
THE CLEARING CAN DEVELOP. MINS WILL STICK ABOUT 10F ABOVE NORMALS
SINCE THE CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO HANG ON.
A RIDGE PUMPS UP OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND SHOULD CUT OFF THE MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE
WEST. BUT BEFORE THE MOISTURE DECREASES TOO MUCH...THE DAYTIME
HEATING ON THURS COULD POP ISOLD/SCT AFTN SHRA OFF OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN - MAINLY ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND ESP THE
LAURELS. WILL STICK WITH A 20-30 POP THERE. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER
IS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THAT GENERAL AREA...NOT ENOUGH OF A CHC EXISTS
TO MENTION AT THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL RISE AS MUCH OF THE MORNING
CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP. GIVEN THE ALREADY-WARM START TO THE
DAY...AFTN TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN GET 10F ABOVE NORMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO
WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION FRI-SUN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST NDFD POPS ARE MON-TUE. CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPERATURES DROPS OFF TO AVG BY THIS TIME WITH MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES SOMEWHAT AT ODDS WITH RESPECT TO MAINTAINING A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE VS. A COOLER MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL HAVE
NOT DEVIATED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND
FAVORED MORE OF A MIXED BLEND FOR DAYS 7 AND 8.
SUBTROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO
STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR
ONSHORE FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER SUSQ VALLYE LATE THIS
MORNING /WITH SOME ISOLATED TSRA INVOF /OR JUST SOUTH/ OR KMDT
WILL LIKELY PASS 15-20 MILES SOUTH OF KLNS OVER THE NEXT 90
MINUTES.
AFTERWARD...THE PRESENCE OF A PERSISTENT EAST WEST FROM BOUNDARY
OVER THE STATE IN THE SFC-5 KFT AGL LAYER WILL HELP TO KEEP PLENTY
OF MVFR TO VFR CLOUDS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PENN DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
EXPECT BFD TO HAVE THE MAIN CHANCE TO HAVE IFR AND OCNLY LIFR IN
THE MOIST AND COOLER AIR NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY....THOUGH
IFR TO LIFR APPEARS THAT IT/LL PERSIST ALSO INVOF KUNV...AND KFIG
WITH MVFR OVS SKIES AT KIPT.
LIGHT WIND AND PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WILL COMBINE WITH MDTLY
HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY
DENSE WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE AT NUMEROUS
AIRFIELDS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT /04Z/ AND 12Z THURSDAY.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THU INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NW...AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO CENTRAL PA.
OUTLOOK...
THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.
FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.
SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1003 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. IT WILL STAY
MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE SFC WAS DRAPED NEARLY EAST/WEST
ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE LATE THIS MORNING. THE GREATEST SLOPE
OF THE 925-850 MB BOUNDARY IS OVER THE REGION NEAR INTESTATE 80.
A COMPACT AND FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE ALOFT RIDING ESE OVER THIS
BOUNDARY LED TO A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN EARLIER IN
THE DAY...WITH A FEW DISCRETE TSRA NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 IN CENTRAL PENN.
LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS THAT THIS PRECIP WILL EXIT OUR EAST ZONES
BETWEEN 15-16Z...FOLLOWED BY A LULL IN PRECIP THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z
AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT OCCURS.
THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY POP SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSRA DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON - MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WCENT PENN AND THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
THE COVERAGE WILL BE RATHER SPARSE...THOUGH AND WE DECREASE THE
POPS TO JUST 20-30 PERCENT IN MOST PLACES THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH THOUGH IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST...AND WILL
PROBABLY KEEP IT LARGELY TOO STABLE/COOL TO GENERATE MUCH
INSTABILITY OR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS NORTH AND EAST OF A KBFD TO KUNV
AND KSEG LINE. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH A SMALL POP FOR THE AFTN.
MAX TEMPS IN THE N WILL BE IN THE L-M60S...BUT GET INTO THE
M-U70S IN THE S. THESE ARE PRETTY NORMAL NUMBERS. THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST DAY BY FAR FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS OR MORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL DWINDLE IN THE EVENING...GENERALLY BEING CONFINED TO
THE LAURELS/SC MTNS AFTER DARK. THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE
RAIN-FREE...BUT CLOUDS COULD CONTINUE TO COVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE WEST AND FOG IS POSSIBLE IF
THE CLEARING CAN DEVELOP. MINS WILL STICK ABOUT 10F ABOVE NORMALS
SINCE THE CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO HANG ON.
A RIDGE PUMPS UP OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND SHOULD CUT OFF THE MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE
WEST. BUT BEFORE THE MOISTURE DECREASES TOO MUCH...THE DAYTIME
HEATING ON THURS COULD POP ISOLD/SCT AFTN SHRA OFF OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN - MAINLY ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND ESP THE
LAURELS. WILL STICK WITH A 20-30 POP THERE. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER
IS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THAT GENERAL AREA...NOT ENOUGH OF A CHC EXISTS
TO MENTION AT THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL RISE AS MUCH OF THE MORNING
CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP. GIVEN THE ALREADY-WARM START TO THE
DAY...AFTN TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN GET 10F ABOVE NORMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO
WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION FRI-SUN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST NDFD POPS ARE MON-TUE. CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPERATURES DROPS OFF TO AVG BY THIS TIME WITH MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES SOMEWHAT AT ODDS WITH RESPECT TO MAINTAINING A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE VS. A COOLER MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL HAVE
NOT DEVIATED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND
FAVORED MORE OF A MIXED BLEND FOR DAYS 7 AND 8.
SUBTROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO
STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR
ONSHORE FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER SUSQ VALLYE LATE THIS
MONRING /WITH SOME ISOLATED TSRA HEADED TWD KMDT AND KLNS OVER THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS/ WILL SCOOT EAST OF THE REGION BY SHORTLY AFTER
16Z.
AFTERWARD...THE PRESENCE OF A PERSISTENT EAST WEST FROM BOUNDARY
OVER THE STATE IN THE SFC-5 KFT AGL LAYER WILL HELP TO KEEP PLENTY
OF MVFR TO VFR CLOUDS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PENN DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
EXPECT BFD TO HAVE THE MAIN CHANCE TO HAVE IFR AND OCNLY LIFR IN
THE MOIST AND COOLER AIR NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THU INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NW...AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO CENTRAL PA.
LIGHT WIND AND PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WILL COMBINE WITH MDTLY
HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY
DENSE WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE AT NUMEROUS
AIRFIELDS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT /04Z/ AND 12Z THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.
FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.
SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
755 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. IT WILL
STAY MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WHAT WAS A FAIRLY CONSISTENT/HOMOGENOUS AREA OF RAIN HAS BROKEN
INTO MORE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AS IT HAS SLID INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND MID SUSQ VALEY. ONLY SAW ONE LTG STRIKE SO FAR THIS
MORNING...BUT SOME OF THE CELLS ARE CARRYING 50 DBZS AND HAVE A
SLIGHT CHC TO PRODUCE THUNDER. TINY DISCRETE CELLS IN THE SRN MTNS
ARE MOVING QUICKLY AS ARE THE OTHER SHOWERS. THEREFORE LITTLE
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN EXISTS. THE RADAR ESTIMATES OVER THE PAST 6
HRS HAS A STRIPE OF ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...BUT NOTHING MORE
SIGNIFICANT. HRRR AND RUC SLIDE THE CURRENT PRECIP FAIRLY STRAIGHT
TO THE EAST...WHILE THE NAM AND HI RES ARW ALLOW THE QPF TO EXPAND
A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTH. HAVE PAINTED HIGH POPS FOR THE NRN HALF
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND FOLLOWED THE MAJORITY OPINION IN
CARRYING THE BULK OF THE PRECIP TO THE EAST. A LULL IN PRECIP
SHOULD OCCUR FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY POP SHOWERS/TSRA - MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
COVERAGE WILL BE RATHER SPARSE...THOUGH. CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH IN
THE CENTRAL AND EAST...AND WILL PROBABLY KEEP IT LARGELY TOO
STABLE/COOL TO GENERATE MUCH INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH A
SMALL POP FOR THE AFTN. MAXES IN THE N WILL BE IN THE L-M60S...BUT
GET INTO THE M-U70S IN THE S. THESE ARE PRETTY NORMAL NUMBERS. THIS
WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY BY FAR FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS OR MORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL DWINDLE IN THE EVENING...GENERALLY BEING CONFINED TO
THE LAURELS/SC MTNS AFTER DARK. THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE
RAIN-FREE...BUT CLOUDS COULD CONTINUE TO COVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE WEST AND FOG IS POSSIBLE IF
THE CLEARING CAN DEVELOP. MINS WILL STICK ABOUT 10F ABOVE NORMALS
SINCE THE CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO HANG ON.
A RIDGE PUMPS UP OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND SHOULD CUT OFF THE MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE
WEST. BUT BEFORE THE MOISTURE DECREASES TOO MUCH...THE DAYTIME
HEATING ON THURS COULD POP ISOLD/SCT AFTN SHRA OFF OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN - MAINLY ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND ESP THE
LAURELS. WILL STICK WITH A 20-30 POP THERE. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER
IS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THAT GENERAL AREA...NOT ENOUGH OF A CHC EXISTS
TO MENTION AT THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL RISE AS MUCH OF THE MORNING
CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP. GIVEN THE ALREADY-WARM START TO THE
DAY...AFTN TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN GET 10F ABOVE NORMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO
WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION FRI-SUN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST NDFD POPS ARE MON-TUE. CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPERATURES DROPS OFF TO AVG BY THIS TIME WITH MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES SOMEWHAT AT ODDS WITH RESPECT TO MAINTAINING A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE VS. A COOLER MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL HAVE
NOT DEVIATED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND
FAVORED MORE OF A MIXED BLEND FOR DAYS 7 AND 8.
SUBTROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO
STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR
ONSHORE FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE AREA OF
SHOWERS. ADJUSTED THE 12Z TAFS FOR THIS...ALONG WITH IFR
CONDITIONS THAT HAVE FORMED IN THE LAST FEW MINUTES.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS N PA WITH EAST...WEST COLD FRONT. AN
ISOLATED LOW TOP THUNDERSTORM AT TIMES BASED ON ECHO TOPS. EXPECT
BFD TO HAVE THE MAIN CHANCE TO HAVE IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY SAG TO THE SOUTH...AS
FRONT BECOMES MORE NW TO SE LATER TODAY. THUS OTHER SITES MAY
SEE LOWER CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THU INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NW...AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO CENTRAL PA.
OUTLOOK...
THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.
FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.
SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
542 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. IT WILL
STAY MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WHAT WAS A FAIRLY CONSISTENT/HOMOGENOUS AREA OF RAIN HAS BROKEN
INTO MORE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AS IT HAS SLID INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND MID SUSQ VALEY. ONLY SAW ONE LTG STRIKE SO FAR THIS
MORNING...BUT SOME OF THE CELLS ARE CARRYING 50 DBZS AND HAVE A
SLIGHT CHC TO PRODUCE THUNDER. TINY DISCRETE CELLS IN THE SRN MTNS
ARE MOVING QUICKLY AS ARE THE OTHER SHOWERS. THEREFORE LITTLE
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN EXISTS. THE RADAR ESTIMATES OVER THE PAST 6
HRS HAS A STRIPE OF ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...BUT NOTHING MORE
SIGNIFICANT. HRRR AND RUC SLIDE THE CURRENT PRECIP FAIRLY STRAIGHT
TO THE EAST...WHILE THE NAM AND HI RES ARW ALLOW THE QPF TO EXPAND
A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTH. HAVE PAINTED HIGH POPS FOR THE NRN HALF
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND FOLLOWED THE MAJORITY OPINION IN
CARRYING THE BULK OF THE PRECIP TO THE EAST. A LULL IN PRECIP
SHOULD OCCUR FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY POP SHOWERS/TSRA - MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
COVERAGE WILL BE RATHER SPARSE...THOUGH. CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH IN
THE CENTRAL AND EAST...AND WILL PROBABLY KEEP IT LARGELY TOO
STABLE/COOL TO GENERATE MUCH INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH A
SMALL POP FOR THE AFTN. MAXES IN THE N WILL BE IN THE L-M60S...BUT
GET INTO THE M-U70S IN THE S. THESE ARE PRETTY NORMAL NUMBERS. THIS
WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY BY FAR FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS OR MORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL DWINDLE IN THE EVENING...GENERALLY BEING CONFINED TO
THE LAURELS/SC MTNS AFTER DARK. THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE
RAIN-FREE...BUT CLOUDS COULD CONTINUE TO COVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE WEST AND FOG IS POSSIBLE IF
THE CLEARING CAN DEVELOP. MINS WILL STICK ABOUT 10F ABOVE NORMALS
SINCE THE CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO HANG ON.
A RIDGE PUMPS UP OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND SHOULD CUT OFF THE MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE
WEST. BUT BEFORE THE MOISTURE DECREASES TOO MUCH...THE DAYTIME
HEATING ON THURS COULD POP ISOLD/SCT AFTN SHRA OFF OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN - MAINLY ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND ESP THE
LAURELS. WILL STICK WITH A 20-30 POP THERE. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER
IS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THAT GENERAL AREA...NOT ENOUGH OF A CHC EXISTS
TO MENTION AT THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL RISE AS MUCH OF THE MORNING
CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP. GIVEN THE ALREADY-WARM START TO THE
DAY...AFTN TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN GET 10F ABOVE NORMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO
WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION FRI-SUN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST NDFD POPS ARE MON-TUE. CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPERATURES DROPS OFF TO AVG BY THIS TIME WITH MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES SOMEWHAT AT ODDS WITH RESPECT TO MAINTAINING A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE VS. A COOLER MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL HAVE
NOT DEVIATED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND
FAVORED MORE OF A MIXED BLEND FOR DAYS 7 AND 8.
SUBTROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO
STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR
ONSHORE FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ADJUSTED 09Z TAFS FOR CURRENT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS N PA WITH EAST...WEST COLD FRONT. AN
ISOLATED LOW TOP THUNDERSTORM AT TIMES BASED ON ECHO TOPS. EXPECT
BFD TO HAVE THE MAIN CHANCE TO HAVE IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY SAG TO THE SOUTH...AS
FRONT BECOMES MORE NW TO SE LATER TODAY. THUS OTHER SITES MAY
SEE LOWER CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THU INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NW...AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO CENTRAL PA.
OUTLOOK...
THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.
FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.
SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
445 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. IT WILL
STAY MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WHAT WAS A FAIRLY CONSISTENT/HOMOGENOUS AREA OF RAIN HAS BROKEN
INTO MORE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AS IT HAS SLID INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND MID SUSQ VALEY. ONLY SAW ONE LTG STRIKE SO FAR THIS
MORNING...BUT SOME OF THE CELLS ARE CARRYING 50 DBZS AND HAVE A
SLIGHT CHC TO PRODUCE THUNDER. TINY DISCRETE CELLS IN THE SRN MTNS
ARE MOVING QUICKLY AS ARE THE OTHER SHOWERS. THEREFORE LITTLE
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN EXISTS. THE RADAR ESTIMATES OVER THE PAST 6
HRS HAS A STRIPE OF ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...BUT NOTHING MORE
SIGNIFICANT. HRRR AND RUC SLIDE THE CURRENT PRECIP FAIRLY STRAIGHT
TO THE EAST...WHILE THE NAM AND HI RES ARW ALLOW THE QPF TO EXPAND
A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTH. HAVE PAINTED HIGH POPS FOR THE NRN HALF
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND FOLLOWED THE MAJORITY OPINION IN
CARRYING THE BULK OF THE PRECIP TO THE EAST. A LULL IN PRECIP
SHOULD OCCUR FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY POP SHOWERS/TSRA - MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
COVERAGE WILL BE RATHER SPARSE...THOUGH. CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH IN
THE CENTRAL AND EAST...AND WILL PROBABLY KEEP IT LARGELY TOO
STABLE/COOL TO GENERATE MUCH INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH A
SMALL POP FOR THE AFTN. MAXES IN THE N WILL BE IN THE L-M60S...BUT
GET INTO THE M-U70S IN THE S. THESE ARE PRETTY NORMAL NUMBERS. THIS
WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY BY FAR FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS OR MORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL DWINDLE IN THE EVENING...GENERALLY BEING CONFINED TO
THE LAURELS/SC MTNS AFTER DARK. THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE
RAIN-FREE...BUT CLOUDS COULD CONTINUE TO COVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE WEST AND FOG IS POSSIBLE IF
THE CLEARING CAN DEVELOP. MINS WILL STICK ABOUT 10F ABOVE NORMALS
SINCE THE CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO HANG ON.
A RIDGE PUMPS UP OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND SHOULD CUT OFF THE MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE
WEST. BUT BEFORE THE MOISTURE DECREASES TOO MUCH...THE DAYTIME
HEATING ON THURS COULD POP ISOLD/SCT AFTN SHRA OFF OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN - MAINLY ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND ESP THE
LAURELS. WILL STICK WITH A 20-30 POP THERE. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER
IS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THAT GENERAL AREA...NOT ENOUGH OF A CHC EXISTS
TO MENTION AT THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL RISE AS MUCH OF THE MORNING
CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP. GIVEN THE ALREADY-WARM START TO THE
DAY...AFTN TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN GET 10F ABOVE NORMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO
WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION FRI-SUN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST NDFD POPS ARE MON-TUE. CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPERATURES DROPS OFF TO AVG BY THIS TIME WITH MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES SOMEWHAT AT ODDS WITH RESPECT TO MAINTAINING A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE VS. A COOLER MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL HAVE
NOT DEVIATED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND
FAVORED MORE OF A MIXED BLEND FOR DAYS 7 AND 8.
SUBTROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO
STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR
ONSHORE FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS N PA WITH EAST...WEST COLD FRONT. AN
ISOLATED LOW TOP THUNDERSTORM AT TIMES BASED ON ECHO TOPS. EXPECT
BFD TO HAVE THE MAIN CHANCE TO HAVE IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY SAG TO THE SOUTH...AS
FRONT BECOMES MORE NW TO SE LATER TODAY. THUS OTHER SITES MAY
SEE LOWER CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THU INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NW...AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO CENTRAL PA.
OUTLOOK...
THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.
FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.
SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1030 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT AS SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTHWARD
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ANA IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST OFFSHORE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND THEN MOVE GRADUALLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN
EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY APPROACH THE AREA BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1015 PM UPDATE...SKIES CLEARING AS ANTICIPATED DUE TO UPPER LEVEL
DRYING...THOUGH IT IS OCCURRING MORE RAPIDLY THAN EXPECTED. REVISED
SKY COVER GRIDS OVERNIGHT...MOST NOTABLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
WHERE IR TEMPS ARE WARMING FASTEST. TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY ON
TRACK...BUT GIVEN THE CLEARER SKIES COOLING MAY ACCELERATE. BLENDED
IN A BIT OF THE RAP TEMPS WHICH SEEMED TO KEEP TEMPS WARMER UNDER
THE CLOUDIER AREAS. STILL EXPECTING PATCHY FOG IN THE MORE FAVORED
AREAS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE...NAMELY MORGANTON/LENOIR AREAS...AND IN
THE LITTLE TENN VALLEY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TONIGHT...THE DEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL (OR
TROPICAL) LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OFF THE SC COAST. OTHER THAN
PERIODS OF THICK CIRRUS OVC...SHUD BE A QUIET NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...PERHAPS A CATEGORY OR TWO WARMER DUE TO
INCREASING CLOUDS.
FRIDAY...THE WX LOOKS ALMOST A CARBON COPY OF THURSDAY...WITH LITTLE
MOVEMENT OF THE LOW NEAR THE SC COAST. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
DEVELOPMENT THE LOW MAY ACQUIRE...THERE MAY BE MORE CLOUD COVER AND
A LITTLE MORE BREEZINESS. BUT OTHERWISE...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
GARDEN VARIETY SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE NC MTNS...WITH TEMPS BACK INTO
THE 70S TO LWR 80S...AND LWR-MID 80S IN THE PIEDMONT. CANNOT RULE
OUT ONE OR TWO BANDS OF LIGHT SHWRS EMANATING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL
LOW...PIVOTING EAST TO WEST ACRS THE CHARLOTTE AREA. BUT STILL ONLY
A SLGT CHC POP SEEMS WARRANTED THERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE DEVELOPING SUB TROPICAL LOW OFF THE
SERN COAST. THE LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY SAT THEN MOVES SLOWLY
TO THE SC COAST SUN. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY GRADUALLY INCREASE
THRU THE PERIOD AS MOISTURE AND SPOKES OF VORTICITY SPIN AROUND THE
LOW AND ACROSS THE CWFA. THAT SAID...THE BEST CHC FOR PRECIP BOTH
DAYS REMAINS THE MTNS WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW DEVELOP. CHC INCREASES OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS ON SUN AS THE MID
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WEAKENS ALLOWING AN INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY. THE PRECIP CHC STILL REMAINS MAINLY DIURNAL...
ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-77 WHERE INFLUENCES FROM THE LOW ARE WEAKER.
ISOLATED SHRA COULD LINGER THRU THE NITE EAST OF I-77. HIGHS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...BUT HIGHER ACROSS THE WEST. LOWS WILL BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...GUIDANCE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE
COASTAL LOW MOVES NE ACROSS THE NC COAST MON AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN OFF SHORE TUE AS THE COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHC OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH DAYS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BOTH
DAYS. THE COLD STALLS SOUTH OF THE AREA WED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO A COLD AIR DAMMING CONFIGURATION...BUT FCST REMAINS DRY. TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. MOISTURE AND
PRECIP THEN RETURNS ACROSS THE AREA THE AS SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE DAMMING HIGH. LOWS WILL COOL...BUT REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WHILE HIGHS FALL TO NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR THRU THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL PROFILES
REMAIN TOO DRY FOR FOG OR STRATUS AT THE TAF SITES...BUT THE
TYPICALLY FAVORED AREAS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE AND IN THE LITTLE TENN
VALLEY ARE LIKELY TO SEE FOG LATE TONIGHT. THICK CIRRUS BANDS
ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO THIN AND LIFT
OVERNIGHT. THIS LOW AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL
REINFORCE NELY FLOW THRU THE PERIOD...WITH MIXING FRI AFTN
POTENTIALLY INTRODUCING A FEW GUSTS AT KCLT...IT BEING NEAREST THE
LOW CIRCULATION AND UNDER A STRONGER GRADIENT. A FEW CU ARE LIKELY
TO BREAK OUT IN THE AFTN ALSO. SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
MTNS...BRINGING KAVL A PROB30 DURING PEAK HEATING.
OUTLOOK...A MOIST AIR MASS WITH POSSIBLE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT ALONG
THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL SUPPORT DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS...CANT RULE OUT LIGHT SHRA AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND SOUTHEAST
COASTAL LOW WITH LOW LEVEL CIGS ALSO A POSSIBILITY THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z 20-00Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 87% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...ARK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
445 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...
AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES EAST OF FLORIDA. THE LOW MAY DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL FEATURE BY THIS WEEKEND...AS IT
DRIFTS NORTH TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THERE IS STILL PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE SYSTEM REMAINS OFFSHORE OR
MOVES INLAND OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND.
THE LOW WILL EVENTUALLY DRIFT EAST OF THE AREA...AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
430 PM UPDATE...THE FCST IS ON TRACK. MADE SLIGHT TWEAKS TO
POP/SKY PER SATELLITE AND RADAR OBS...AND LATEST AVBL HRRR WHICH HAS
BACKED OFF ITS EXPECTATIONS FOR CONVECTION NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE.
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUBBLE NEAR THE TENN BORDER THRU
SUNSET.
AS OF 200 PM...NO BIG CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE SOUTHWEST FROM THE MID-ATALNTIC
REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...THE SUBTROPICAL LOW
OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD WITH THE BIGGEST
AFFECT FOR OUR AREA PATCHY HIGH CLOUDINESS. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL
REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS FROM 55 TO 60 OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS AND 50-55
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. SOME FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY IN THE LITTLE TN VALLEY WHERE FOG IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE.
ON THURSDAY...THE SUBTROPICAL LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT
NORTHWARD TO OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY. MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE NON-MOUNTAIN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS THEY WILL
BE IN AN AREA OF GENERAL SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING
IN FROM THE NE. HOWEVER...THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE SOME SCT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION THANKS TO LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND A SPOKE OF
VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH
CAPES INCREASING TO 500-1000J/KG. HENCE...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SCT
POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN
TODAY DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER...BUT STILL ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM
WILL BE HOW MUCH IMPACT THE TROPICAL (OR SUBTROPICAL LOW) WILL HAVE
ON OUR WX ACRS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AS IT APPROACHES THE SC COAST.
THE MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT ON THEIR DEPICTION OF
THE FEATURE...GRADUALLY ORGANIZING IT INTO A CLOSED SFC LOW BY
THURSDAY EVENING...WITH OUTER BANDS OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO START
AFFECTING THE NC/SC COASTS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
IS FOR THE LOW TO MEANDER NEAR THE SC COAST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...KEEPING OUR AREA IN THE SUBSIDENCE BAND ON THE NW SIDE OF
THE CIRCULATION. GUIDANCE DOES ALLOW FOR SOME INSTBY AND MTN-TOP
CONVECTION BOTH DAYS...WITH THE I-77 CORRIDOR POSSIBLY BEING
AFFECTED BY SOME RAIN BANDS. THE BLUE RIDGE...UPSTATE AND NE GA LOOK
TO BE IN THE MINIMUM OF POP BOTH DAYS. TEMPS WILL BE 2-3 CATEGORIES
ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE STARTS AT 00Z
SUNDAY...WITH THE TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL LOW SOMEWHERE INVOF THE
SC/NC COAST. THE MODELS STILL DIVERGE ON WHERE THE LOW IS STEERED.
THE LATEST WPC PREFERENCE IS CLOSE TO THE 00Z ECMWF...WHICH HAS THE
LOW DRIFT NORTH INTO ERN NC ON SUNDAY...THEN TURN SLIGHTLY NE OFF
THE VA CAPES. THE GFS IS A SLOW AND WESTERN OUTLIER...HAVING THE LOW
DRIFT SW ON SUNDAY TOWARD SAVANNAH...THEN NE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN
ON MONDAY. IF THE GFS VERIFIES...WE WOULD PROBABLY SEE MORE ENHANCED
AFTN/EVE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CONSENSUS/WPC TRACK...THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL LIKELY STAY ON THE SUBSIDENCE/BACK SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM...WITH MAINLY JUST SOME MTN CONVECTION AND ISOLD PIEDMONT
ACTIVITY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. I WILL UNDERCUT THE SUPERBLEND POPS BOTH
DAYS ABOUT 10-20 PCT...KEEPING CHC POP IN NC...AND SLGT CHC POP
SOUTH. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...ABOUT 7-10 DEG.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE PERSISTENT WESTERN CONUS TROF WILL EJECT
INTO THE PLAINS...AND LIFT NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE FLOW WILL
FLATTEN THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS RIDGE...BUT NOT COMPLETELY.
STILL...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER WAVE PUSHING THRU THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE GFS HAS IT THRU BY
EARLY MORNING...WHILE THE ECMWF PUSHES IT ACRS TUESDAY EVENING.
AGAIN...THE WPC PREFERENCE IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE EC...SO WILL
CONTINUE THE CHC POPS FOR SHWRS AND TSTMS...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
TUESDAY. THEN DRY WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN WINDS THIS
AFTN/EVENING UNDER VERY WEAK FORCING. OVERALL PATTERN SUGGESTS ESE
WINDS WILL BACK TO NE TONIGHT AS A SUBTROPICAL LOW MOVES NORTHWARD
OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW.
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH GENERALLY
JUST PATCHY CIRRUS...JOINED BY A FEW RATHER HIGH BASED CU FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTN.
ELSEHWERE...GENERALLY VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THURSDAY WHERE FOG MAY REDUCE VSBY/S AT KAVL
AND KHKY TO MVFR.
OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS EXCEPT FOR PATCHY
MORNING FOG. OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
PERSISTS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL PRODUCE LOCAL RESTRICTIONS. LOW
CLOUDS AND OR FOG RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
20-02Z 02-08Z 08-14Z 14-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 91% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 83% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...LG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...LG/WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
117 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...
AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS TO WHETHER OR NOT IT
REMAINS OFFSHORE OR MOVES INLAND OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF THE
CAROLINAS. THE LOW WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY AND MAY NOT DEPART TO THE
EAST UNTIL MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM...BUMPED MAX TEMPS UPWARD A COUPLE DEGREES BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS. LOW POPS STILL LOOK GOOD ALONG THE TN/NC BORDER
WHERE BEST INSTABILITY EXISTS.
AS OF 945 AM...GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING TEMPS TO
SPIKE UPWARD QUICKLY... ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS.
THEREFORE...ADJUSTED TEMP TRENDS. LATEST HRRR NOT EXCITED AT ALL
ABOUT CONVECTIVE CHANCES IN THE MOUTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL CAP
LOOKS TOO STRONG TO OVERCOME EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN
ALONG THE TN BORDER. BLENDED IN LATEST CONSHORT INTO POP GRID WHICH
TAMPED POPS DOWN TO AREAS OF ABOUT 20% ALONG THE TN BORDER IN
WESTERN NC.
AS OF 810 AM...DID A QUICK UPDATE MAINLY TO CAPTURE LATEST HOURLY
TEMP TREND. OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK.
AS OF 620 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...CALM WINDS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA. ALTHOUGH THINNING
SOMEWHAT...STILL SEEING SOME PATCHY HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS ACROSS THE
EASTERN MOST ZONES PER IR SAT. AS PREVIOUSLY FCST...VISB
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO PATCHY DENSE FOG ARE EVIDENT IN AND AROUND THE
LITTLE TN RIVER VALLEY...WITH IMPROVEMENT FCST AFTER SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES NEEDED/MADE TO THE FCST WITH THIS UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN THIS MORNING CONSISTS
OF AN UPPER TROF ATOP THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES SLIDING THROUGH THE TROF BASE OVER THE OK/TX PANHANDLE
REGION. FURTHER EAST...SHARP UPPER RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
SLIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WHILE A CLOSED LOW
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OFF THE SOUTH FLORIDA COASTLINE. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
ELONGATE/ERODE AS A SURFACE DISTURBANCE BENEATH THE ABOVE MENTIONED
FLORIDA COASTAL H5 LOW SLIDES NORTHWARD. IN RESPONSE...PRIMARY
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FETCH THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER NORTHEAST GA
AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL GIVE WAY TO BACKED SURFACE FLOW.
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING IN ALOFT WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THUS PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE FEATURED IN THE FCST. AS FOR POPS...MODEL OUTPUT IS
RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE WILL LITTLE INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR
CONVECTION...THUS ONLY ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHRA AND OR TSRA IS
MENTIONED ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. THEREFORE NORTHEAST GA ALONG
WITH THE NC/SC PIEDMONT REGIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE LOWER 80S. ALL POPS WILL FALL OFF THIS EVENING AS
HEATING IS LOST...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LOWS ON THURSDAY MORNING WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO AS NOCTURNAL SKY COVER LIMITS
RADIATIONAL COOLING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...THE OBVIOUS CONCERN WITH THE LATER PART OF
THE WEEK CONTINUES TO BE THE FATE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS EXPECTED
TO HAVE DEVELOPED/ORGANIZED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THURSDAY
MORNING. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN THE FCST TRACK OF THE LOW WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT ON
THE PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE ERN ZONES. THE FCST GENERALLY LEANS
TOWARD THE ECMWF WITH ITS KEEPING THE LOW CENTER OVER THE GULF
STREAM A BIT LONGER...AND AWAY FROM THE GFS WHICH MOVES THE LOW THE
FARTHEST WEST...BECAUSE OF A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE STEERING FLOW
THAT WOULD RESULT IN THAT WESTWARD JOG. THE FARTHER EAST THE LOW
TRACKS...THE MORE LIKELY THAT THE WESTERN CAROLINAS/NE GEORGIA WILL
REMAIN UNDER SOME SORT OF WEAK SUBSIDENCE...OR AT LEAST AN AREA OF
RELATIVELY DRY AIR...AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. FOR THAT
REASON...AM NOT PARTICULARLY EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES THRU THE
PERIOD...AND ESPECIALLY NOT THURSDAY WHEN THE LOW IS STILL WELL
OFFSHORE. THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIP ON THURSDAY
WILL BE ON THE TN BORDER WHERE WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE
BEST. ON FRIDAY...THERE IS THE CHANCE THAT SOME PRECIP COULD DRIFT
IN FROM THE EAST DURING THE DAY...SO THE PRECIP CHANCES RAMP UP
THERE...AND ARE KEPT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE USUAL
DIURNAL WEAKENING CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE MTNS. TEMPS SHOULD BE A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS OVER THE EASTERN-MOST
ZONES WHERE PRECIP/CLOUDS COULD MOVE IN FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...WE FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW PRESSURE
OF SOMEWHAT TROPICAL NATURE EITHER OFF THE CAROLINA COAST OR OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION ULTIMATELY HAS
THE BEST HANDLE ON IT. ALL THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY N BUT BE LEFT ADRIFT FOR THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW
OFFSHORE THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD AND THAT SOLUTION WAS GENERALLY
FAVORED WITH THE THINKING THAT THE LOW MIGHT STAY CLOSER TO THE GULF
STREAM WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE BETTER. THAT WOULD KEEP THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS/NE GEORGIA IN THE UNFAVORABLE AREA WELL W/NW OF THE LOW
WHERE WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR GETTING ENTRAINED FROM THE N WOULD
KEEP A LID ON CONVECTION. WILL NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE FCST
BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY...BUT WILL TAKE THIS
OPPORTUNITY TO IMPROVE SOME INCONSISTENCY WITH NEIGHBORING FCST
OFFICES IN TERMS OF PRECIP CHANCES. IT LOOKS LIKE THE LOW WILL
FINALLY DRIFT AWAY TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. THEREAFTER...WE LOOK TO A
SURFACE FRONT COMING IN FROM THE WEST AS THE UPPER PATTERN FINALLY
STARTS MOVING AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH GENERALLY JUST PATCHY HIGH CLOUDINESS. LIGHT GENERALLY
EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD BACK TO THE NE OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE ON
THURSDAY AS A SUBTROPICAL LOW MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA.
ELSEHWERE...GENERALLY VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THURSDAY WHERE FOG MAY REDUCE VSBY`S AT KAVL
AND KHKY TO MVFR.
OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS EXCEPT FOR PATCHY
MORNING FOG. OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
PERSISTS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL PRODUCE LOCAL RESTRICTIONS. LOW
CLOUDS AND OR FOG RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
17-23Z 23-05Z 05-11Z 11-12Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...LG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
942 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...
AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS TO WHETHER OR NOT IT
REMAINS OFFSHORE OR MOVES INLAND OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF THE
CAROLINAS. THE LOW WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY AND MAY NOT DEPART TO THE
EAST UNTIL MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
OF 945 AM...GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING TEMPS TO
SPIKE UPWARD QUICKLY... ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS.
THEREFORE...ADJUSTED TEMP TRENDS. LATEST HRRR NOT EXCITED AT ALL
ABOUT CONVECTIVE CHANCES IN THE MOUTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL CAP
LOOKS TOO STRONG TO OVERCOME EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN
ALONG THE TN BORDER. BLENDED IN LATEST CONSHORT INTO POP GRID WHICH
TAMPED POPS DOWN TO AREAS OF ABOUT 20% ALONG THE TN BORDER IN
WESTERN NC.
AS OF 810 AM...DID A QUICK UPDATE MAINLY TO CAPTURE LATEST HOURLY
TEMP TREND. OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK.
AS OF 620 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...CALM WINDS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA. ALTHOUGH THINNING
SOMEWHAT...STILL SEEING SOME PATCHY HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS ACROSS THE
EASTERN MOST ZONES PER IR SAT. AS PREVIOUSLY FCST...VISB
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO PATCHY DENSE FOG ARE EVIDENT IN AND AROUND THE
LITTLE TN RIVER VALLEY...WITH IMPROVEMENT FCST AFTER SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES NEEDED/MADE TO THE FCST WITH THIS UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN THIS MORNING CONSISTS
OF AN UPPER TROF ATOP THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES SLIDING THROUGH THE TROF BASE OVER THE OK/TX PANHANDLE
REGION. FURTHER EAST...SHARP UPPER RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
SLIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WHILE A CLOSED LOW
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OFF THE SOUTH FLORIDA COASTLINE. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
ELONGATE/ERODE AS A SURFACE DISTURBANCE BENEATH THE ABOVE MENTIONED
FLORIDA COASTAL H5 LOW SLIDES NORTHWARD. IN RESPONSE...PRIMARY
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FETCH THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER NORTHEAST GA
AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL GIVE WAY TO BACKED SURFACE FLOW.
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING IN ALOFT WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THUS PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE FEATURED IN THE FCST. AS FOR POPS...MODEL OUTPUT IS
RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE WILL LITTLE INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR
CONVECTION...THUS ONLY ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHRA AND OR TSRA IS
MENTIONED ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. THEREFORE NORTHEAST GA ALONG
WITH THE NC/SC PIEDMONT REGIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE LOWER 80S. ALL POPS WILL FALL OFF THIS EVENING AS
HEATING IS LOST...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LOWS ON THURSDAY MORNING WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO AS NOCTURNAL SKY COVER LIMITS
RADIATIONAL COOLING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...THE OBVIOUS CONCERN WITH THE LATER PART OF
THE WEEK CONTINUES TO BE THE FATE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS EXPECTED
TO HAVE DEVELOPED/ORGANIZED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THURSDAY
MORNING. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN THE FCST TRACK OF THE LOW WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT ON
THE PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE ERN ZONES. THE FCST GENERALLY LEANS
TOWARD THE ECMWF WITH ITS KEEPING THE LOW CENTER OVER THE GULF
STREAM A BIT LONGER...AND AWAY FROM THE GFS WHICH MOVES THE LOW THE
FARTHEST WEST...BECAUSE OF A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE STEERING FLOW
THAT WOULD RESULT IN THAT WESTWARD JOG. THE FARTHER EAST THE LOW
TRACKS...THE MORE LIKELY THAT THE WESTERN CAROLINAS/NE GEORGIA WILL
REMAIN UNDER SOME SORT OF WEAK SUBSIDENCE...OR AT LEAST AN AREA OF
RELATIVELY DRY AIR...AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. FOR THAT
REASON...AM NOT PARTICULARLY EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES THRU THE
PERIOD...AND ESPECIALLY NOT THURSDAY WHEN THE LOW IS STILL WELL
OFFSHORE. THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIP ON THURSDAY
WILL BE ON THE TN BORDER WHERE WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE
BEST. ON FRIDAY...THERE IS THE CHANCE THAT SOME PRECIP COULD DRIFT
IN FROM THE EAST DURING THE DAY...SO THE PRECIP CHANCES RAMP UP
THERE...AND ARE KEPT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE USUAL
DIURNAL WEAKENING CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE MTNS. TEMPS SHOULD BE A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS OVER THE EASTERN-MOST
ZONES WHERE PRECIP/CLOUDS COULD MOVE IN FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...WE FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW PRESSURE
OF SOMEWHAT TROPICAL NATURE EITHER OFF THE CAROLINA COAST OR OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION ULTIMATELY HAS
THE BEST HANDLE ON IT. ALL THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY N BUT BE LEFT ADRIFT FOR THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW
OFFSHORE THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD AND THAT SOLUTION WAS GENERALLY
FAVORED WITH THE THINKING THAT THE LOW MIGHT STAY CLOSER TO THE GULF
STREAM WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE BETTER. THAT WOULD KEEP THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS/NE GEORGIA IN THE UNFAVORABLE AREA WELL W/NW OF THE LOW
WHERE WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR GETTING ENTRAINED FROM THE N WOULD
KEEP A LID ON CONVECTION. WILL NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE FCST
BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY...BUT WILL TAKE THIS
OPPORTUNITY TO IMPROVE SOME INCONSISTENCY WITH NEIGHBORING FCST
OFFICES IN TERMS OF PRECIP CHANCES. IT LOOKS LIKE THE LOW WILL
FINALLY DRIFT AWAY TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. THEREAFTER...WE LOOK TO A
SURFACE FRONT COMING IN FROM THE WEST AS THE UPPER PATTERN FINALLY
STARTS MOVING AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...STILL MAINLY A WIND FCST WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. CALM WINDS AT TAF INITIALIZATION WILL GIVE WAY
TO LIGHT ENE FLOW AS PARENT HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC COAST SHIFTS
FURTHER EAST ALLOWING FLOW AROUND NORTHERN FLANK OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE FL COAST TO INFLUENCE THE PATTERN. PERIODICAL CROSS
WINDS ARE STILL A POSSIBILITY WITH FLOW IN THE 3-6KTS RANGE. SKIES
WILL REMAIN FEW/SCT AS HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMS IN ALOFT FROM THE
SOUTH.
ELSEHWERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE AS VFR PREVAILS. OTHERWISE
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BENEATH LIGHT ESE
FLOW. WINDS WILL CALM OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH AREAS OF
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. HOWEVER...DID NOT
INCLUDE ANY WX/BR AT KAVL WITH THIS ISSUANCE.
OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL MOUNTAIN CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...AS MOIST FLOW PERSISTS. LOW CLOUDS AND
OR FOG RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING WHERE PRIOR
AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION OCCURRED.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
13-19Z 19-01Z 01-07Z 07-12Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 66%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 66%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 66%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 66%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 66%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 66%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...CDG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
1016 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
.DISCUSSION...
12Z SOUNDINGS AT OHX AND FFC SHOW A MIDLEVEL STABLE LAYER THAT
SHOULD HELP TO CAP CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS STABLE LAYER REMAINING
IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY AT CHA. THERE IS AN INVERSION IN THE RNK
SOUNDING AS WELL...BUT THE NAM WEAKENS IT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
AREAS. THE HRRR AND RAP DEVELOP QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IN
SW VA THIS AFTERNOON...AND NOT JUST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS A
RESULT...THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS IN
SW VA TO A CHANCE...AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FARTHER SOUTH
INTO THE TRI- CITIES AREA. HIGHS YESTERDAY REACHED THE MID 80S
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...AND BASED ON REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS BEING
SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE LOW LEVELS TODAY...WILL BRING HIGH TEMPS UP
TO AT LEAST AS HIGH AS WE SAW YESTERDAY.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1232 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
40
&&
.AVIATION...
STREAMER SHOWERS WERE ALREADY CONTAINING ISOLATED THUNDER AT
1730Z. THE LATEST HRRR WAS VERIYING NICELY. TAKING A COMBINATION
OF THE HRRR...RAP13...AND NAM12 GIVES A CONSENSUS OF THUNDER
CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST 23Z AND POSSIBLY THROUGH 02Z.
FOR TONIGHT...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH
THOUGHT THAT THE GUDANCE WAS OVERDOING HOW LOW AND HOW EARLY THE
ONSET OF THESE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. MOST LOCATION MAY NOT SEE
MVFR UNTIL AFTER 09Z. RAW MODEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY PLOTS FORECAST
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AFTER MID MORNING ON THURSDAY.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1056 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015/
DISCUSSION...
RETRANSMITTED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015/
PESKY CELL THAT HAS GENERATED A GOOD AMOUNT OF RAIN ACROSS NW
PARTS OF SE TX HAS SAGGED INTO WALLER CO NEAR HEMPSTEAD. IT`S
STILL PRODUCING 2-3"/HOUR RAINFALL RATES BUT (AT LEAST SHORT TERM)
INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT MIGHT BE WEAKENING. STILL SEEING STREAMERS
FEED INTO THE AREA SO STILL MIGHT BE A PLAYER FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.
FORECAST-WISE UPDATED GRIDS TO MATCH OBS AND ALSO MADE A FEW MORE
TWEAKS...MAINLY TO BUMP AFTN POPS UP JUST A LITTLE. CONCERNED LINGERING
BOUNDARIES FROM THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY ALONG WITH 1.5-1.6" PWS,
CAPES 2000-3000 J/KG, -7 LI`S AND ANY WARMING UP TO THE LOW-MID
80S MIGHT TRIGGER SOME ADDITIONAL SCT DEVELOPMENT. FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG CELLS AND FROM WHAT WE SAW
THIS MORNING...SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS. NOT ALL THAT
CONFIDENT IN THE OVERALL SHORT TERM FCST AS NONE OF THE MODELS
(INCLUDING HI RES) HAVE DONE PARTICULARLY WELL LAST NIGHT OR
THIS MORNING. BUT THAT`S NOT UNCOMMON THIS TIME OF YEAR HERE... 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 84 71 85 71 85 / 40 20 30 20 30
HOUSTON (IAH) 83 72 86 72 86 / 40 10 20 10 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 81 74 81 75 82 / 20 10 20 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...
MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION/MARINE...40
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1218 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
.AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE SHORT-TERM AND THE POSSIBLE CONTINUED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KAUS. MOST ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO
PUSH NORTHEAST OF THE TERMINAL AND WILL BEGIN THE TAF FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS WITH -SHRA PREVAILING WITH VICINITY THUNDER AND THEN
WITH ONLY VCSH FROM 8Z-11Z. CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TONIGHT FOR ANY
MENTION FOR THE OTHER TAF SITES. THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE
CEILINGS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. PRESENTLY...KDRT IS THE ONLY
SITE WITH IFR CONDITIONS...BUT THE REST OF THE TERMINALS SHOULD
FOLLOW SHORTLY. THERE COULD BE SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AS
WELL TOWARDS DAYBREAK...BUT PERSISTENT WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
SHOULD KEEP THINGS FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF CONTROL. CEILINGS
SHOULD LIFT AROUND NOON AND THEN THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
WILL HANDLE THE THREAT WITH A VCSH FOR NOW AS PROBABILITIES ARE
TOO LOW TO MENTION THUNDER FOR SEVERAL HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF
MVFR/IFR IS EXPECTED TOMORROW NIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1047 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/
UPDATE...
EARLIER EVENING MODEL RUNS OF RAP AND HRRR DEPICTED A MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND SHORT-TERM FLASH FLOOD THREAT ALONG I-35 BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST AND NORTH. MID EVENING RUNS ARE NOW HOLDING BACK THE
HIGHER QPF VALUES CLOSER TO I-35 AND KEEPING A SUSTAINED THREAT
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. AREAS FARTHER TO THE EAST WERE INCLUDED IN
CASE THE TRAINING AREA SOLIDIFIES INTO A COMPLEX AS HAS BEEN
SUGGESTED IN A RECENT NCEP MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION. THE
HRRR CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A FEW STORMS FOLLOWING RIGHT MOVING
SUPERCELL PATHS...SO THERE MAY STILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS. HOWEVER...WILL DISCREDIT MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
SEVERE THREAT FOR NOW AS THIS BEHAVIOR IS NOT SUGGESTED BY
EVENING RADAR TRENDS OR SPC MESOANALYSIS TOOLS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 819 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/
UPDATE... /LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE E OF 281...N OF I-10/
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONCENTRATING ALONG A
CONVEYOR BELT OF GULF MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF
AN UPPER LOW LIFTING NE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FINER RESOLUTION
MODELS HAVE SHOWN INCREASED RAINFALL INTENSITIES AND QPF OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL TX...WITH INITIAL SOLUTIONS WIDELY VARIED EARLY
TODAY...NOW CONVERGING INTO THE WEAK TRAINING ECHO PATTERN SEEN
THIS EVENING. FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS WILL LIKELY CONCENTRATE
ACTIVITY ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 INTO LATE TONIGHT. POPS WERE
INCREASED OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN SECTIONS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MENTIONED. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK...BUT MAY NEED TO MAKE A LATE EVENING ADJUSTMENT TO POPS
SHOULD THE TRAINING PATTERN SHIFT OR DIMINISH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH FLOODING THREATS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO BE TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT A FFA.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/
UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 THIS
EVENING. WE HAVE INCLUDED -SHRA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR...THEN TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSRA BETWEEN 03Z-06Z. FOR
NOW...WE DID NOT INCLUDE A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION AT KDRT AS IT
APPEARS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ISOLATED. CIGS WILL DROP INTO IFR
OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN IFR THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF WEDNESDAY
MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING WILL IMPROVE SKIES BACK TO VFR
AFTER 18Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO THE BIG BEND WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE 250MB JET
WAS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...BUT WAS LESS THAN 50 KTS. THE JET
MARKED THE BOUNDARY OF MOIST MID-LEVEL AIR TO THE SOUTH AND DRIER
AIR TO THE NORTH. AT THE SURFACE WINDS CONTINUED FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AND DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WERE FROM THE LOW TO UPPER
60S. THERE WAS A DRYLINE FROM CHILDRESS TO MARATHON. IN THE PRE-
FIRST PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE
DRYLINE AND ARE MOVING TOWARD THE EAST. SOME STORMS MAY MOVE INTO
OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. STORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO MOISTURE
RICH ENVIRONMENT AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. FORECAST CAPE IS 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. SOME STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL THE MOST LIKELY THREAT.
DURING THE FIRST PERIOD STARTING THIS EVENING...THE FOUR CORNERS
TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
FLATTEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE RIDGE. ANOTHER LOW WILL DIG SOUTHWARD
OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
TEXAS. THE LOW LEVELS WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING. THE DRYLINE WILL REMAIN OVER WEST
TEXAS AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE STRONG
MOIST FLOW WILL KEEP THE DRYLINE WEST OF OUR CWA. WE WILL HAVE
ANOTHER LOW CHANCE DAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITHOUT ANY STRONG
TRIGGER. WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 70 THERE WILL BE
STRONG INSTABILITY AND ONLY A WEAK CAP. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. SPC HAS THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR AREA IN
THE MARGINAL RISK FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD OVER THE WEST COAST
THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TO THE EAST FRIDAY AND
THEN TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN
SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE ONLY SURFACE FEATURE
WILL BE THE DRYLINE TO THE WEST AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST KEEPING IT THERE. THIS WILL MEAN
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LOW CHANCE POPS WITH A CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...BUT NOT TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION. INSTABILITY
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG STORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS
MAY PROVIDE A BETTER FOCUS FOR STORMS OVER A WIDER AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 71 84 70 83 71 / 20 30 20 40 30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 71 84 71 84 72 / 20 30 20 40 30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 71 84 71 83 71 / 20 30 20 40 30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 69 82 69 81 69 / 20 30 20 40 30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 71 89 71 88 71 / 30 20 20 30 30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 70 83 69 82 70 / 20 30 20 40 30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 71 85 70 84 71 / 20 30 20 40 30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 71 84 70 83 72 / 20 30 20 40 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 72 85 72 85 72 / 20 20 10 30 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 71 84 71 84 72 / 20 30 20 40 30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 72 85 71 85 72 / 20 30 20 40 30
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BASTROP...CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...FAYETTE...
GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...LAVACA...LEE...TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
951 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015
.UPDATE...SHOWERS AND TSTORMS HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED. THE LINE OF
STORMS WEST OF THE MS RIVER SHOULD ALSO MOSTLY DISSIPATE BEFORE
REACHING LOCATIONS WEST OF MADISON. SWLY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A
MILD NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WARM DAY FOR FRI. THE WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS SRN WI ON FRI WITH CHANCES OF
TSTORMS...ALTHOUGH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE FRI NT OVER
SE WI WHEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...LLWS IS POSSIBLE TNT WITH A SWLY 40 KNOT
LLJ. OTHERWISE...3-5SM HAZE OR LIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TOWARD SUNRISE FRI BUT LAST ONLY A FEW HOURS. STRATUS MAY ALSO
FORM ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER SW AND SOUTH CENTRAL
WI. A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE FOR KMSN DURING THEM
MIDDLE TO LATE MORNING HOURS. AFTERWARD SCT- BKN040 CUMULUS IS
EXPECTED WITH CHANCES OF TSTORMS. DO NOT EXPECT STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT OVER SE WI BUT WILL SEE SCT040-050 CUMULUS. SHOWERS
AND TSTORMS TO BECOME LIKELY FRI NT OVER SE WI. MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH THE RAIN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015/
TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE WI/IA BORDER
WITH SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY THIS MORNING AND ARE SLOWLY TRACKING
EAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI THIS AFTERNOON. THEY ARE WEAK SINCE THEY
ARE ENCOUNTERING A WELL-MIXED... DRY AND CAPPED ENVIRONMENT.
THE NEXT CHALLENGE IS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PRECIP CHANCES. THE
MAJORITY OF MODELS ARE SHOWING A DRY FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN WI THIS
EVENING AS SOON AS THE ONGOING SHOWERS DISSIPATE. THERE IS AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER
NORTHEAST MO THIS AFTERNOON THAT SHOULD TRACK EAST OR NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE EVENING. THE HRRR MODEL IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT IS
CONSISTENTLY DEVELOPING A LARGE PRECIP SHIELD WITH THAT CONVECTION
AND BRINGING IT INTO SOUTHERN WI. THEREFORE... WENT WITH JUST SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.
THE OVERNIGHT WEATHER SHOULD BE QUIET ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. THERE IS
NOT MUCH SUPPORT FOR SHOWER/TSTORM DEVELOPMENT. KEPT SCHC POPS...BUT
THIS MAY BE ABLE TO BE REMOVED.
FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WI ON
FRIDAY. THIS MAY TRIGGER SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS IT REACHES SOUTHEAST
WI FRIDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT THE LIKELY POPS FOR THIS AREA. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A GOOD AMOUNT OF CAPE BUT WEAK SHEAR... SO NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ON FRIDAY.
EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN.
FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE WORKING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
EVENING...BUT THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
TIMING. THE GFS HAS IT EXITING KENOSHA RIGHT AROUND 00Z SAT...
WHILE THE ECMWF IS STILL BACK OVER MADISON OR JUST NW OF MADISON.
THE NAM IS IN BETWEEN. ALL THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE
ROLLING UP HERE IN THE DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THAT TIME. GIVEN
THAT THE FLOW IS SOUTHWEST...WILL DISCARD THE FAST GFS AS A FASTER
SOLUTION ISN/T TYPICAL WITHOUT ENCOURAGEMENT ALOFT. WE BUILD SOME
CAPE IN THE AFTERNOON...SO WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WITH FROPA AND THE MID LEVEL WAVE COMBO.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL COOL DOWN
THE LAKE SHORE AREAS SIGNIFICANTLY BY MORNING.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF US BY SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING
WITH A COOLER AND DRIER NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW OVER ALL OF
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. IF YOU/RE HEADED OVER TOWARD LAKE
MICHIGAN...IT WILL BE CHILLY. THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY AND THE MODELS STILL SHOW SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY
POTENTIALLY ROLLING UP HERE. HOWEVER...THE COLUMN WILL BE PRETTY
DRY AND THE BEST LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL BE WELL SOUTH. HOWEVER...
WILL HANG ONTO A SMALL CHANCE OVER THE FAR SOUTH IN CASE ANY
SHOWERS SNEAK FARTHER NORTH.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER LOW
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WE GET INTO A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW...AT LEAST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
THE 850MB WARM FRONT SHOULD GET INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND THIS
COULD A FOCUS FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION IS MODEST.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
THE STRONG...CLOSED UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WRN NEB
SUNDAY MORNING AND MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO SOUTHERN MN BY MONDAY
EVENING...BECOMING AN OPEN TROF BY THAT TIME. THIS PUTS US IN A
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH THE USUAL TIMING ISSUES RELATED TO
SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ROLLING NORTH AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. THE SFC
COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT MAY STAY SOUTH OF WISCONSIN THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY...BUT THE 850MB BOUNDARY WILL BE WELL NORTH. GIVEN
THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL JET...IT
LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY. THE CHANCES
INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE FRONT LIFTS NORTH. CAN/T RULE
OUT SEVERE WEATHER...BUT THE BETTER CAPE STAYS TO OUR SOUTH
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY IS LOOKING INTERESTING AS THE STACKED LOW MOVES NORTHEAST
INTO THE SOUTHERN MN VCNTY. TIMING IS KEY HERE...AS ALWAYS. THERE
IS A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG/SEVERE WEATHER...BUT
IT LOOKS LIMITED TO MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A NARROW BAND OF HIGHER CAPE AND SHEAR SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD
OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THE MID LEVEL WESTERLIES AND LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY JET WILL ALSO INCREASE CONSIDERABLY INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. BUT THIS COULD ALL PUSH EAST BEFORE THE FAVORABLE
DIURNAL MAX...OR STAY FOCUSED JUST TO OUR SOUTH...KEEPING US ON
THE MORE STABLE SIDE OF THINGS. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY...BUT THERE IS
LOTS OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR MID WEEK. WE MIGHT SEE SOME
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY...BUT THAT CHANCE IS PRETTY SMALL AT THIS
POINT. THE RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...SO QUIET AND
COOL.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
UNCERTAINTY WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE NEXT 30 HOURS... BUT
IT LOOKS LIKE SOUTHEAST WI WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG A COLD FRONT TRACKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE STATE.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WI DUE TO A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH AND INVERSION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LOWEST CEILINGS
SHOULD BE NORTHWEST OF MADISON... BUT MVFR VSBY IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTHERN WI.
MARINE...
MARINE FOG MOSTLY DISSIPATED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY BUT
IT COULD REDEVELOP TONIGHT WITH WARM AND MOIST AIR LINGERING OVER
THE AREA.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...DAVIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
607 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE DENSE FOG HAS EXPANDED INTO
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND A CHECK WITH OFFICIALS IN GRANT COUNTY
CONFIRM THAT IT IS REDUCING THE VISIBILITY. BASED ON THIS...HAVE
EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHEAST IOWA
INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT
FOR SOME AREAS. CLOSED CIRCULATION EJECTING OUT OF THE MEAN TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS...SPINNING OVER COLORADO
OVERNIGHT. FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION LEADING TO SHOWERS FROM CENTRAL MN ACROSS
PRIMARILY THE NORTHERN HALF OF WI. MEANWHILE...STRONGER DYNAMIC
FORCING NEARER THE MAIN LOW CENTER LEADING TO CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT FROM KS/MO UP INTO IA. MAIN CIRCULATION AND FORCING
WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT. CONTINUED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO OUR AREA SUGGESTS THAT SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AND AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN
AND NORTHEAST IA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER IT DOES APPEAR
THE BETTER SUPPORT WILL REMAIN FURTHER WEST. HAVE BEEN MAINTAINING
RAIN CHANCE GRADIENT DIMINISHING FURTHER EAST FOR A FEW DAYS NOW
AND WILL KEEP THE GENERAL TREND THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
DESPITE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN...WARM ADVECTION AND ANY
RANDOM PEEK AT THE SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES MAKE IT UP INTO THE
70S. AND A FEW LOCALIZED 80 DEGREE READINGS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL MAKE THE TIMING DETAILS OF THE
FORECAST CHALLENGING FOR THE NEXT WEEK TO 10 DAYS. DAKOTAS WAVE
CONTINUES NORTH INTO CANADA...WITH SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH
HELPING TO KICK THE TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. GULF WILL BE WIDE OPEN AT THIS POINT
SO MOISTURE RETURN AND INSTABILITY SHOULD DRIVE SOME CONVECTION
THROUGH THE REGION WITH RAIN LIKELY DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...
SUPPORTED BY ALL MODELS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW FAR
AND HOW FAST THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. GFS MOST
ROBUST WITH THE SURGE OF COOLER/DRIER AIR. ECMWF TRENDING THAT WAY
TOO LEADING TO A BIT HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME. OPTED TO FAVOR THE GFS FOR THIS PERIOD DUE TO THE TREND.
MAIN LONG WAVE TROUGH FINALLY LOOKING TO FULLY EJECT OUT OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND...TAKING ITS TIME TRACKING INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE MON/TUE. MODELS IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF FEATURES AS THIS TAKES
PLACE. MAIN SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BY
SUNDAY MORNING. IF THIS TIMING HOLDS...SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
COULD BE INTERESTING WITH SEVERAL PARAMETERS FALLING INTO PLACE
FOR A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK FROM THE PLAINS UP TOWARD IA. LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LOOKS PRETTY WET UNDER THIS SCENARIO AS THE
SYSTEM SLOWLY TRAVERSES THE TRI-STATE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS AT KRST AND BOTH THE
06.09Z RAP AND 06.06Z NAM SUGGEST THIS WILL HOLD ON UNTIL ABOUT
14Z OR SO AND THEN RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS THE MIXING INCREASES. PLAN
TO SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT OUT OF LIFR TO IFR AROUND 14Z AND THEN
IMPROVE THE VISIBILITY TO VFR AND CEILINGS TO MVFR AROUND 16Z.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS
START TO GUST OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THE VISIBILITY HAS NOT DROPPED
AS LOW AT KLSE AND EXPECT THAT THIS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID
MORNING. THE CEILINGS SHOULD COME UP TO MVFR BY MID MORNING AND
THEN VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH
STARTS TO APPROACH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE NAM SUGGESTS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THESE TWO FEATURES SHOULD
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME STORMS FROM
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE INTRODUCED VCSH FOR
BOTH TAF SITES TO COVER THIS BUT DID NOT PUT ANY THUNDER IN YET AS
THE NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAPE STAYS UNDER 500 J/KG FOR RIGHT
NOW. IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE...EXPECT THAT THE SHOWERS WILL HAVE
TO BECOME PREVAILING WITH AT LEAST THE INCLUSION OF A VCTS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ054-061.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ086-087-
094-095.
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ008>011-
018-019-029-030.
&&
$$
UPDATE...04
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
627 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015
AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM LARAMIE COUNTY
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NIOBRARA AND CONVERSE COUNTIES. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEFORMATION AREA ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
MIDLVL LOW THAT IS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. NOT EXPECTING THIS
BAND TO MOVE MUCH THROUGH THE MORNING...SO THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS
OF THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH 18Z. IT WILL REMAIN A
STEADY LIGHT RAIN WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF ANY TSTMS...BUT STILL
COULD SEE WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.50 INCHES ALONG AND EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE IN SOUTHEAST WY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA BY THIS AFTN.
THUS...THIS AREA OF ENHANCED VERTICAL ASCENT WILL SHIFT INTO THE
NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AFTER 18Z. WE MAY ACTUALLY SEE SOME
PEAKS OF SUNSHINE OVER SOUTHEAST WY BY MIDDAY AND BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTN. COULD
SEE AN ISOLATED TSTM WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING WITH A DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND
IT AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL REALLY DECREASE AFTER THE LATE EVENING.
WITH DECREASING MOISTURE LEVELS AND A GENERALLY STABLE
AIRMASS...WILL SEE A DECREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...MOST NOTABLE TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. AREAS
ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER IN SOUTHEAST WY WILL SEE THE BEST
INSTABILITY ON THURS AFTN (CAPE VALUES OF 300-600 J/KG) SO SCT
STORMS WILL DEVELOP THERE. THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN AND HIGHER PRESSURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL MAINTAIN NORTHEAST TO EAST UPSLOPE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. SREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AREAS OF FOG COULD BE A
CONCERN ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE. WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT LOW
CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. ONCE AGAIN...THE
BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL EXIST ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH THE AFTN...AND THEN POTENTIALLY SPREAD
EASTWARD TO THE PLAINS BY THE EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DEALING WITH A
MAJOR WINTER STORM THIS WEEKEND. FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH
SNOW LEVELS AND AMOUNTS ALONG WITH TIMING OF RAIN.
STARTING OFF FRIDAY NIGHT...AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN STATIONARY ALONG THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE...THROUGH CENTRAL COLORADO...UP INTO WESTERN WYOMING.
PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO
THE FRONT RANGE AND INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING. THE CWFA IS SQUARE IN
THE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AT 500MBS AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN UTAH, WE SHOULD BE SEEING
WIDESPREAD RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN VERY SIMILAR IN THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW
INTO WESTERN COLORADO SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL
APPEARS LIKELY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. VERY
STRONG 700MB SOUTHEAST UPSLOPING WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON THE
ORDER OF 40 TO 45KTS WILL ENHANCE RAIN AMOUNTS ALONG THE EASTERN
FOOTHILLS AND POSSIBLY THE EASTERN PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
WENT AHEAD AND ADDED POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE RAINS IN THE FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
COLDER 700MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON TRACK FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY ECMWF SHOWING -4 TO -6C ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AT
00Z...DECREASING TO -6 TO -8C SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST 850MB
WINDS INCREASE TO 45-50KTS ON THE ECMWF AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS
INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. ADDED CHANCES FOR MODERATE AND HEAVY SNOW
INTO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS FREEZING LEVELS
DROP TO 5500 FEET AND POSSIBLY LOWER DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WILL
ISSUE AN SPS ON THIS UPCOMING EVENT TO ALERT CUSTOMERS OF
SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER.
CONTINUED TO CUT GUIDANCE SIGNIFICANTLY ON TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AS
THE SNOW WILL START SATURDAY NIGHT AND ENVISION IT LASTING MOST OF
THE DAY SUNDAY. WILL PROBABLY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S FOR
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING...WITH UPPER 30S/LOW 40S IN THE
PANHANDLE. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF VERY SLOW MOVING THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW EASTWARD...SO SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
FORECAST QPF GUIDANCE IS SCARY...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOWING 1.5-2.0 INCHES OF LIQUID SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. EVEN A 10 TO 1 RATIO ON SNOW WOULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL. THEN ADD 35 TO 40 MPH NORTHEAST WINDS ON TOP OF THAT AND
WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A VERY DANGEROUS CONDITION.
BY MONDAY MORNING...ECMWF HAS THE UPPER LOW IN EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES OF -8 TO -10C OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS APPEAR LIKELY MONDAY MORNING THAT
WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.
SINCE THE EVENT IS STILL 4 DAYS OUT...CONDITIONS COULD CHANGE. THE
LOW COULD TRACK FURTHER NORTH AND THEN WE WOULD BE DRY SLOTTED. IF
CURRENT TRACKS THOUGH FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE AS THEY HAVE
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS THOUGH...DO BELIEVE THIS COULD BE THE
BIGGEST SNOW STORM THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR QUITE A WHILE HERE IN
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. COULD BE LOOKING AT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALL DAY SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF OUR SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AIRPORTS. LACK OF AVAILABLE HRRR GUIDANCE
HAS US AT LESS THAN HIGH CONFIDENCE. PERSISTENCE WOULD INDICATE
LOW CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUING.
AT LEAST THROUGH THE 18Z TIMEFRAME.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015
A COOL AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS VERY
LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE REGION BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD
AND LARGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...ZF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
339 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015
AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM LARAMIE COUNTY
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NIOBRARA AND CONVERSE COUNTIES. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEFORMATION AREA ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
MIDLVL LOW THAT IS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. NOT EXPECTING THIS
BAND TO MOVE MUCH THROUGH THE MORNING...SO THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS
OF THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH 18Z. IT WILL REMAIN A
STEADY LIGHT RAIN WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF ANY TSTMS...BUT STILL
COULD SEE WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.50 INCHES ALONG AND EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE IN SOUTHEAST WY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA BY THIS AFTN.
THUS...THIS AREA OF ENHANCED VERTICAL ASCENT WILL SHIFT INTO THE
NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AFTER 18Z. WE MAY ACTUALLY SEE SOME
PEAKS OF SUNSHINE OVER SOUTHEAST WY BY MIDDAY AND BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTN. COULD
SEE AN ISOLATED TSTM WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING WITH A DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND
IT AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL REALLY DECREASE AFTER THE LATE EVENING.
WITH DECREASING MOISTURE LEVELS AND A GENERALLY STABLE
AIRMASS...WILL SEE A DECREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...MOST NOTABLE TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. AREAS
ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER IN SOUTHEAST WY WILL SEE THE BEST
INSTABILITY ON THURS AFTN (CAPE VALUES OF 300-600 J/KG) SO SCT
STORMS WILL DEVELOP THERE. THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN AND HIGHER PRESSURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL MAINTAIN NORTHEAST TO EAST UPSLOPE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. SREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AREAS OF FOG COULD BE A
CONCERN ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE. WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT LOW
CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. ONCE AGAIN...THE
BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL EXIST ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH THE AFTN...AND THEN POTENTIALLY SPREAD
EASTWARD TO THE PLAINS BY THE EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DEALING WITH A
MAJOR WINTER STORM THIS WEEKEND. FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH
SNOW LEVELS AND AMOUNTS ALONG WITH TIMING OF RAIN.
STARTING OFF FRIDAY NIGHT...AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN STATIONARY ALONG THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE...THROUGH CENTRAL COLORADO...UP INTO WESTERN WYOMING.
PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO
THE FRONT RANGE AND INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING. THE CWFA IS SQUARE IN
THE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AT 500MBS AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN UTAH, WE SHOULD BE SEEING
WIDESPREAD RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN VERY SIMILAR IN THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW
INTO WESTERN COLORADO SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL
APPEARS LIKELY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. VERY
STRONG 700MB SOUTHEAST UPSLOPING WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON THE
ORDER OF 40 TO 45KTS WILL ENHANCE RAIN AMOUNTS ALONG THE EASTERN
FOOTHILLS AND POSSIBLY THE EASTERN PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
WENT AHEAD AND ADDED POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE RAINS IN THE FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
COLDER 700MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON TRACK FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY ECMWF SHOWING -4 TO -6C ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AT
00Z...DECREASING TO -6 TO -8C SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST 850MB
WINDS INCREASE TO 45-50KTS ON THE ECMWF AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS
INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. ADDED CHANCES FOR MODERATE AND HEAVY SNOW
INTO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS FREEZING LEVELS
DROP TO 5500 FEET AND POSSIBLY LOWER DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WILL
ISSUE AN SPS ON THIS UPCOMING EVENT TO ALERT CUSTOMERS OF
SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER.
CONTINUED TO CUT GUIDANCE SIGNIFICANTLY ON TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AS
THE SNOW WILL START SATURDAY NIGHT AND ENVISION IT LASTING MOST OF
THE DAY SUNDAY. WILL PROBABLY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S FOR
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING...WITH UPPER 30S/LOW 40S IN THE
PANHANDLE. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF VERY SLOW MOVING THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW EASTWARD...SO SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
FORECAST QPF GUIDANCE IS SCARY...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOWING 1.5-2.0 INCHES OF LIQUID SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. EVEN A 10 TO 1 RATIO ON SNOW WOULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL. THEN ADD 35 TO 40 MPH NORTHEAST WINDS ON TOP OF THAT AND
WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A VERY DANGEROUS CONDITION.
BY MONDAY MORNING...ECMWF HAS THE UPPER LOW IN EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES OF -8 TO -10C OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS APPEAR LIKELY MONDAY MORNING THAT
WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.
SINCE THE EVENT IS STILL 4 DAYS OUT...CONDITIONS COULD CHANGE. THE
LOW COULD TRACK FURTHER NORTH AND THEN WE WOULD BE DRY SLOTTED. IF
CURRENT TRACKS THOUGH FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE AS THEY HAVE
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS THOUGH...DO BELIEVE THIS COULD BE THE
BIGGEST SNOW STORM THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR QUITE A WHILE HERE IN
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. COULD BE LOOKING AT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALL DAY SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF OUR SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AIRPORTS. LACK OF AVAILABLE HRRR GUIDANCE
HAS US AT LESS THAN HIGH CONFIDENCE. PERSISTENCE WOULD INDICATE
LOW CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUING.
AT LEAST THROUGH THE 18Z TIMEFRAME.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015
A COOL AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS VERY
LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE REGION BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD
AND LARGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...ZF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1104 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE HAS EXPIRED.
FOG WILL BE MUCH OF LOCALIZED THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE CENTER OF
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA. INCREASING RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD
KEEP DENSE FOG FROM SETTLING BACK INTO THE LARAMIE RANGE. MODELS
ARE SHOWING WINDS SHIFTING TOWARDS A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE DIRECTION
WHICH WILL MAKE FOG MUCH LESS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT. MODELS MAY BE
A BIT PREMATURE TURNING WINDS TO THE WEST BUT IT SHOULD OCCUR
SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOOKING MUCH LESS
LIKELY TONIGHT SO HAVE TAKEN THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015
MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION NOTED ON WATER VAPOR AND MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY
SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY NORTH OUT OF THE PUEBLO AREA WITH BANDED
RAINS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS
FEATURE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA OVER THE
NEXT 12-18 HOURS. HIGHEST POPS ARE BEING ADVERTISED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES THROUGH TONIGHT. IN THE VERY NEAR
TERM...UPSLOPE SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS INDUCED AREAS OF
DENSE FOG AND DRIZZLE ACROSS LARAMIE COUNTY WYOMING...WITH LOWEST
VISIBILITIES BEING SEEN AROUND AND THE SOUTH AND WEST OF CHEYENNE
IMPACTING INTERSTATES 80 AND 25. EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
THROUGH 6 PM MDT FOR THESE AREAS...AND EVENING WATCH WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR TRENDS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WHEN THE RAINS MOVE IN
FROM THE SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING...THAT WILL START TO SHUT THE
FOG PROCESS DOWN A BIT...OR AT LEAST INCREASE VISIBILITIES ABOVE
1/4 MILE.
ON THE LARGER SCALE...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT KEEPING THE
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW GOING THROUGH THURSDAY WITH AN INITIAL
SHORTWAVE TRANSITING OUR FORECAST AREA TOMORROW MORNING...EXITING
TO THE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT
DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE DIVIDE TOMORROW...AND THAT SHOULD HELP
FOCUS A LITTLE MORE CONVECTION INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WE PEGGED
THE HIGHER POPS FOR MOSTLY RAIN/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW
MORNING THEN TAPERED POPS DOWN A BIT INTO CHANCE CATEGORY TOMORROW
EVENING...THEN BACK UP AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA OUT OF THE LARGER UPPER LOW
ACROSS CALIFORNIA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015
WET PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MUCH OF SUNDAY WITH SOME LULLS IN THE INTERIM BETWEEN PASSING
SHORTWAVES EJECTING NORTHEAST FROM AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE OVER
THE SW CONUS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE
WEEKEND AS IT FINALLY MOVES OUT ACROSS THE SRN ROCKYS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AS IT DOES SO A LEE
CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN OVER SE COLORADO LATE SATURDAY AND MOVE
NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY. THIS WILL DRAW COLDER
AIR SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA SAT NIGHT AND LIKELY CHANGE PCPN OVER TO
SNOW OVER THE MTNS INTO AT LEAST A PART OF THE ADJACENT HIGH
PLAINS. THIS ALONG WITH A HEALTHY BREEZE COULD MAKE FOR QUITE A
PROBLEM SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO
SEE HOW THIS DEVELOPS. REGARDLESS DECENT QPF LOOKING LIKELY OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE REGION.
SHOULD SEE CLEARING CONDITIONS LATER SUNDAY AS THE SFC/UPPER LOWS
MOVE FARTHER EAST OF THE CWA. SHORT UPPER RIDGING MOVE ACROSS
LATER MONDAY WITH SW FLOW ALOFT RETURNING ON TUESDAY. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY LOOK TO BE MILD AND MAINLY DRY WITH JUST SOME MTN SHOWERS
MAINLY ON TUESDAY WITH A PASSING DISTURBANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF OUR SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AIRPORTS. LACK OF AVAILABLE HRRR GUIDANCE
HAS US AT LESS THAN HIGH CONFIDENCE. PERSISTENCE WOULD INDICATE
LOW CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUING.
AT LEAST THROUGH THE 18Z TIMEFRAME.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 318 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015
WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW PARKED TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE 4
CORNERS REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...IT APPEARS A FAIRLY
WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR MOST PERIODS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. NOT EXPECTING ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND GIVEN THE WET AND COOL PATTERN IN PLACE.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...JG
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...JG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1132 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2015
NOW THAT THE TORNADO THREAT HAS EXITED...TIME TO ISSUE A
WINTER STORM WATCH. WILL PUT OUT FOR THE CONTDVD...SAWATCH
AND MOSQUITO RANGE...TO MATCH EXISTING WATCHES PUT OUT BY
WFOS GJT AND BOU. SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL IN THE
GRIDS...BUT GIVEN THAT THIS IS HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF MAY
IT`S CLOSE TO A LATE SEASON EVENT AND POTENTIAL WARNING SEEMS
JUSTIFIED. ROSE
UPDATE ISSUED AT 539 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2015
UPDATED MAINLY POPS PER CURRENT WSR TRENDS AND LATEST HI RES
GUIDANCE. LOOKS LIKE A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WILL BUILD OVER
THE I-25 CORRIDOR...THEN MOVE E THIS EVENING. EXPECT LOWERING
CIGS OVER THE AREA WITH PRECIP REDEVELOPING OVER NRN I-25
AND THE SRN FRONT RANGE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ROSE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2015
CURRENTLY...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...FAIRLY COLD AIR ALOFT
AND SURFACE CAPES OVER 1000 J/KG HAVE COMBINED TO GENERATE VERY
EFFICIENT HAIL PRODUCING TSRA ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY...WITH 6-8 INCH
DEEP ACCUMULATIONS SLOWING TRAFFIC AND CAUSING DRAINAGE PROBLEMS
OVER THE NORTH SIDE OF COLORADO SPRINGS. TOUGH TO FIND MUCH UPPER
LEVEL FORCING...THOUGH THERE IS A HINT OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS IN THE LATEST WATER VAPOR
LOOP. ELSEWHERE ON THE PLAINS...CAPES RUNNING 1000-1500 J/KG....WITH
BEST INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER WHERE STRATUS CLEARED
FASTEST EARLIER THIS MORNING. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON...SVR TSRA WATCH ISSUED FOR PLAINS ALONG AND EAST OF I-25
WITH MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL...THOUGH ISOLATED CELLS ACROSS LAS
ANIMAS/BACA COUNTIES HAVE SHOWN SOME SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS
WITH A LEAST A LOW THREAT OF A TORNADO.
TONIGHT...TSRA MIGRATE EASTWARD THIS EVENING...WITH LATEST HRRR
KEEPING STRONGEST STORMS ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AND ACROSS LAS
ANIMAS/BACA COUNTIES THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE A LOOSELY ORGANIZED
LINE FORMS NEAR THE KS BORDER LATER IN THE EVENING. HRRR ALSO HINTS
AT A NEW ROUND OF CONVECTION ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR IN PUEBLO/EL
PASO COUNTIES 05Z-06Z AS OUTFLOW ENHANCED UPSLOPE FLOW PUSHES BACK
WESTWARD. OVERALL...WILL KEEP POPS IN PLACE MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
THE NIGHT...HIGHEST CHANCES EL PASO/TELLER COUNTIES.
THURSDAY...STILL A FEW LINGERING -SHRA DURING THE MORNING WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE/UPSLOPE AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION LIFT DEVELOPING OVER
THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BY AFTERNOON...EXPECT WARM FRONT TO LIE
ALONG THE NM BORDER AROUND MIDDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD
THE ARK RIVER BY EVENING. ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...EASTERLY
BL FLOW COMBINED WITH FAIRLY DEEP INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS CAPES RANGE FROM 1-2K
J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR APPROACHES 50 KTS. ELSEWHERE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND HIGH VALLEYS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN AS SCT AFTERNOON
TSRA WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN...WITH HIGHEST POPS GENERALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. MAX TEMPS LITTLE CHANGED WITH
CLOUDS/MOISTURE/PRECIP PERSISTING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2015
THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH ACTIVE WEATHER LOOKING TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS ON THE HIGHER SIDE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH LESS CONFIDENCE EARLY TO MIDDLE NEXT
WEEK.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF WEATHER ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM
SYSTEM AND PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE FOR MOUNTAIN
SNOWFALL...SEVERE WEATHER ON THE PLAINS AND FLOODING POTENTIAL IN
SATURATED AREAS.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE EJECTING AROUND THE LOW ACROSS
COLORADO FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
BE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF A LA JUNTA TO KIM LINE. STRONG WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO
IS POSSIBLE. THESE STORMS WILL SHIFT EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
PLAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AND SMALL HAIL FRIDAY
EVENING. IF A STRONGER STORM CAN IMPACT TELLER AND EL PASO
COUNTIES...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
INTO EASTERN COLORADO ON SATURDAY. SEVERAL CONCERNS AS THE UPPER
SYSTEM EJECTS ACROSS THE AREA...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER...HEAVY RAINFALL WRAPPING AROUND THE
SYSTEM OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND INTO THE RAMPART RANGE AND SNOW
LEVELS. ALL OF THESE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT
STORM PATH. THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE A MORE FAVORABLE SOUTHERN
SOLUTION...WHILE THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY NORTH AND WOULD LIMIT THE
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT IN PARTICULAR. AS FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A DRYLINE DEVELOPING
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND TRACKING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AND STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BECOME
SEVERE. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST OR WEST THE STORMS
DEVELOP. HAVE A FEELING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LIMITED
TO ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER. ELSEWHERE...FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE
LOW WILL PROVIDE STRONG LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE INTO THE RAMPART RANGE. THIS UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG
THE LEE SLOPES OF THE RAMPART RANGE AND PALMER DIVIDE. THESE AREAS
HAVE SEEN HEAVY RAINFALL LATELY AND ARE SATURATED...AND FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ECMWF AND NAM STORM TRACK.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY BE HIGH THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH
SEVERAL INCHES EXPECTED ABOVE 10 KFT.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PULL OFF INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WRAP AROUND FLOW AND SOME MODELS ARE PRODUCING
A TROWAL FEATURE OVER NORTHERN COLORADO KEEPING DECENT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. GFS HAS THIS FEATURE
NORTH...HOWEVER THE ECMWF AND NAM ARE SOUTH AND HAVE THIS FEATURE
IMPACTING THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. COLD AIR WILL BE
FILTERING INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL LIKELY DROP SNOW LEVELS DOWN
TO AROUND 7 KFT SUNDAY MORNING. THIS COULD LEAD TO SNOW ON THE
PALMER DIVIDE AND AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION GRASSY SURFACE.
EXPECT MOST AREAS TO SEE CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE COLD
WRAP AROUND FLOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE SHIFTING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...MOVING OUT IN
THE PLAINS. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY THURSDAY. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2015
LATEST COMPUTER GUIDANCE SHOWS MUCH STRONGER E TO SE WINDS OVER
THE PLAINS TOMORROW. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...KCOS COULD
POTENTIALLY BE STUCK IN IFR TO LIFR MUCH OF TOMORROW AND FRI
EVENING. KPUB COULD ALSO SEE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR.
HAVE REMAINED ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE IN THE 06Z TAFS...BUT
POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT LOW CIGS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
IF LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THIS COULD SET
UP THE AREA FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SVR STORMS...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
WX TRENDS WILL BE HIGHLY DYNAMIC AND RAPIDLY CHANGING THROUGH
TOMORROW EVE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FOR
LOCAL AVIATION. PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND
ADVISORIES/WARNINGS. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR COZ058-060-061.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
202 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
WITH A SECONDARY AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES ON FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE. FOR
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK, A COLD FRONT WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED
STATES AS THE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE WEAKENS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
2 AM UPDATE...DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO SPREAD INLAND SO HAVE
EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO NEW CASTLE AND SALEM COUNTIES
AS WELL AS OCEAN AND SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON COUNTIES. IN OCEAN
AND SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON COUNTIES, THE IMPACTS ARE EXACERBATEDBY
THE FACT THAT SMOKE FROM THE FOREST FIRE IN WHARTON STATE FOREST
IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES. FURTHER WEST, DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN ABOUT 5 DEGREES F OR MORE. THIS COMBINED
WITH A SHIFT TO WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT, THOUGH SOME VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS
1 MILE ARE POSSIBLE.
PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...WE DID SOME TEMPERATURE
ADJUSTMENTS AS THEY WERE FALLING FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED TOWARD
THE COAST. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AND HEADLINES REMAINED THE
SAME.
THE TRAFFIC CAMS ARE SHOWING THE DENSER FOG BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP FROM ACY SOUTH, SO WE WENT
AHEAD AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS EFFECTIVE
IMMEDIATELY.
THEN WE USED THE MORE CONSERVATIVE NARRE AS A STARTING POINT AS TO
HOW FAR WESTWARD/SOUTHWESTWARD TO ANTICIPATE DENSE FOG FORMING
OVERNIGHT. THE SPLIT IN MODELS CONTINUES WITH THE HRRR REMAINING
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING DENSE FOG NEARLY TO PHILADELPHIA
AND THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW JERSEY AND MOST OF
DELMARVA. GIVEN THE RECENT DRY WEATHER AND HOW TODAY INLAND WAS
WARMER THAN STAT GUIDANCE, NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO THAT WAY. WE
DID EXTEND THE MENTION OF SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG TO PARTS OF THESE
AREAS NEAR THE DELAWARE BAY AND RIVER.
FAIR WEATHER TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OFFSHORE. PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT MOST AREAS...PERHAPS NOT AS MUCH
FAR NORTH. MORE WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE SRN NJ/DELMARVA.
LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S MOST AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME FOG
AROUND EARLY...BUT THE SUN WILL QUICKLY BURN THINGS OFF BY AROUND 8
AM OR SO. ITS POSSIBLE THAT SOME FOG MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
COAST...LIKE TODAY. HIGH TEMPS FRI WILL RISE INT THE UPPER 70S/LOW
80S MOST AREAS...COOLER NEAR THE SHORE. WINDS SHOULD MOSTLY S OR SW
AT 5 TO 10 MPH DURING THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL MODELS
WITH THE GENERAL OVERALL PATTERN IN ALL PERIODS. THE MAIN
DISCREPANCY IS THE ECMWF AND THE ECMWF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE LOOK TO
COOL IN THE THREE TO FIVE DAY, WHILE THE GFS IS PERHAPS A TAD TO
WARM. ANY TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
CAROLINAS MAY LEAD TO HIGHER RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANY
OTHER IMPACTS TO DAILY WEATHER VERY LIMITED. DETAILS BELOW...
THIS WEEKEND: WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO OUR NORTHEAST AND A LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN
PLACE. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE EACH DAY ALONG WITH RISING
925 MB TEMPERATURES AS A WARMER AIRMASS IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION.
MANY LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO GET INTO THE LOW/MID 80`S ON AVERAGE
AFTER STARTING OUT IN THE UPPER 50`S/LOW 60`S. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW IS
LIKELY TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST COOLER. WITH THE LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SOME MORNING FOG EACH DAY COULD OCCUR. ALSO THE
INCREASED INSTABILITY AND HUMIDITY MAY LEAD TO AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM. NO TRIGGER IN THIS PERIOD FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED TO
PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS, GOING SLIGHT CHANCE ATTM.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY
TUESDAY ALONG WITH MOISTURE INCREASING FROM A DECAYING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NEAR OR NORTH OF THE CAROLINAS. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT MAY PRODUCE SOME NEEDED RAINS. ENOUGH SEPARATION WITH THESE
FEATURES WILL LIMIT THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN THREAT BUT SOME
LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT
WINDS MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF PATCHY FOG. RISING 925 MB
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 20C SHOULD ALLOW INLAND AREAS TO RUN WELL
ABOVE CURRENT NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 80`S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH MORNING IN THE LOW TO MID
60`S. IN TERMS OF ANY SEVERE THREAT WITH THE FRONT, THIS LOOKS
LIMITED AS THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE NORTHWEST OF THE MORE
FAVORABLE INSTABILITY ATTM. AREAS THAT DO NOT SEE THE SCATTERED
STORMS WILL SLIP CLOSER TO DROUGHT CONDITIONS AS SHORT TERM DEFICITS
WITH RAINFALL CONTINUE TO GROW.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS.
GOING WITH A LARGER TEMPERATURE SPREAD THAN THE MODELED TWO METER
VALUES. CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE MAY STILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS INTO THE
70`S AFTER CHILLIER STARTS IN THE 40`S/50`S. THE MAIN CONCERN MAY
END UP BEING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FIRE SPREAD. RH VALUES AROUND
35% EACH AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
06Z TAFS...FOG BANK CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND. KACY AND KMIV
ALREADY HAVE LIFR CONDITIONS, AND EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP AT KILG SOON (WHERE 400 FT AGL CEILINGS HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED). FOR THE REST OF THE DELAWARE VALLEY SITES (KPHL, KPNE,
AND KTTN), THE LOW STRATUS COULD REACH THOSE AIRPORTS AFTER 09Z,
BUT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF AT LEAST 5 DEGREES F SHOULD PRECLUDE
DENSE FOG FROM GETTING THAT FAR INLAND. FURTHER WEST AT KABE AND
KRDG, SOME MVFR VISIBILITES MAY DEVELOP AROUND SUNRISE, BU THE
MAIN LOW STRATUS DECK SHOULD NOT REACH THOSE SITES.
FRIDAY MORNING...ALL TERMINALS GO VFR, KACY EXPECTED TO GO LAST.
WINDS BECOME SOUTH AT AROUND 5 MPH AND CUMULUS AROUND 5000 TO
6000FT AGL MAY DEVELOP BY MID DAY.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON... SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BECOME
STRONGER, CLOSER TO 10 KNOTS. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT A SEA BREEZE
FRONT WILL FORM, MORE OF A GENERAL SYNOPTIC SCALE WIND AROUND THE
SURFACE HIGH.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: VFR DURING THE DAY WITH SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS. IFR WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS EACH
NIGH POSSIBLE. THE HIGHEST RISK FOR FOG IS AT KACY, KMIV, AND
KILG, BUT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY: VFR THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS PERIOD. SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING EACH DAY LEADING TO MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. SOUTHEAST
WIND GUSTS UNDER 15 KNOTS ON MONDAY AND THEN SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS
AROUND OR UNDER 20 KNOTS ON TUESDAY. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE 12Z.
&&
.MARINE...
AFTER COORDINATING WITH THE DAY SHIFT, WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR OUR AREA WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
SOME OF THE TRAFFIC CAMS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST LOOKED VERY
FOGGY. LATEST SREF/NARRE AND HRRR GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING THAT THE
FOG SHOULD CONTINUE AND SPREAD THROUGH THE NIGHT. NOT A CONFIDENT
FORECAST OFF OF MONMOUTH AND IN UPPER DELAWARE BAY AND TIMING
MIGHT HAVE TO BE EXTENDED ON FRIDAY AS FLOW REMAINS WEAK AND DEW
POINTS ABOVE WATER TEMPS.
SUB SCA CONDITIONS WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THERE IS
SOME FOG ACROSS SE NJ/DEL COASTAL AREAS AND INTO SRN DEL BAY AND
EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON...IT CONTINUES . IT WILL PROBABLY REMAIN INTO
THE EVENING AND PERHAPS BECOME A BIT MORE CONCENTRATED OVERNIGHT. VERY
LIGHT ONSHORE OR UP THE BAY FLOW INTO EARLY TONIGHT THEN
LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SEAS AND WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY
WITH SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MONDAY THEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNDER 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UNDER 20
KNOTS, HIGHEST ON TUESDAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ016-
020>027.
DE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-431-
450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...GIGI/JOHNSON/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/GIGI/JOHNSON
MARINE...GAINES/GIGI/O`HARA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MELBOURNE FL
441 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY...
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE
ONLY SLOWLY NORTHWARD TODAY. SOME MOISTURE IN THE MID/UPR LEVELS IS
FORECAST TO PIVOT SOUTH TOWARD VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SHORT RANGE MODELS TRY TO GENERATE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
PRECIP AMOUNTS BUT OVERALL DRYNESS TO THE AIRMASS SHOULD LIMIT
SHOWER COVERAGE BELOW 15 PERCENT. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY WITH NW LOW
LVL FLOW. SHOULD SEE AN EAST COAST BREEZE DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
FROM THE NNE/NE AND PUSH SLOWLY INLAND INTO LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL REACH THE MID-UPPER 80S. A NORTH TO NORTHEAST OCEAN SWELL WILL
PRODUCE A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE BEACHES.
TONIGHT...
00Z GFS HAS ANOTHER VORT LOBE SWINGING SE MAINLY ACROSS THE E
CENTRAL FL ATLANTIC WATERS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OUT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF STREAM
WATERS. OVER LAND...LOW LVL FLOW WILL BECOME NW FOR NRN AREAS AND W-
SW ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.
SAT-SUN...
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA IS TRAPPED BY A DEEP RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE NRN GOMEX TO THE MID ATLC COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER OVER
THE CAROLINA COAST THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. LITTLE TO NO PRECIP
CHANCES AS THE POSITION OF ANA WILL KEEP CENTRAL FL UNDER HER
DESCENDING LEFT FLANK...CHARACTERIZED BY DEEP NWRLY FLOW...LARGE
SCALE SUPPRESSION... AND WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION. INDEED...MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES A SHALLOW BUT SIGNIFICANT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN
THE H85-H70 LYR WITH SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR AND NO ORGANIZED MID/UPR
LVL DYNAMIC LIFT ABV IT. WHAT LITTLE PRECIP DOES OCCUR WILL BE FAR
MORE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE...MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SHRAS AS DEEP LYR NW FLOW IS ONE OF THE LEAST FAVORABLE
FLOW REGIMES FOR DEEP CONVECTION IN CENTRAL FL.
WILL GO WITH A SLGT CHC OF SHRAS SUN AFTN AS THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS...
CURRENTLY OVER THE SRN BAHAMAS/GREATER ANTILLES...LIFTS INTO S FL
AND WEAKENS THE LOW/MID LVL PGRAD ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE TO DVLP WHILE LIGHT WRLY STEERING FLOW KEEPS IT PINNED
NEAR THE COAST. ACTUALLY...THE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND SLIGHTLY
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MIGHT BE MORE OF A SIGNAL OF
CONSIDERABLE STRATUS DURING THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING HRS...BUT
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS NOT PICKING UP ON THIS ATTM. TEMPS NEAR AVG
SAT/SAT NIGHT AS THE NW FLOW THRU THE H100-H70 LYR WILL NOT PROMOTE
WARM AIR ADVECTION. TEMPS A FEW DEG ABV AVG SUN/SUN NIGHT AS H100-
H70 WINDS SHIFT TO THE S/SE.
MON-THU...
THE BLOCKING RIDGE THAT IS KEEPING ANA STATIONARY WILL BREAK DOWN BY
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK AS IT IS ERODED FROM THE WEST BY A
FRONTAL TROF OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPR MIDWEST...AND FROM THE EAST
BY ANA HERSELF. THIS WILL ALLOW ANA TO DRIFT INTO THE CAROLINAS BY
DAYBREAK MON WHERE SHE WILL BE ABSORBED BY A SECOND STORM SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF THE DESERT SW.
AS THE ABOVE SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS WILL REBUILD
OVER CENTRAL FL...WHERE IT WILL BCM THE PRIMARY WX FEATURE THRU THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. REGIONAL H100-H70 WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE S/SE
BY DAYBREAK MON AND REMAIN IN PLACE...TAPPING AN AIRMASS OVER THE
GREATER ANTILLES THAT SIMPLY DOES NOT HAVE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PRECIP. RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW H100-H70 RH
VALUES AOB 70PCT...NOT CONDUCIVE FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN LOW END SCT
POPS.
EVEN SO...AS THE RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS OVERHEAD...THE WX PATTERN WILL
SHIFT TO A MORE SUMMER LIKE REGIME WITH ISOLD/SCT SHRAS/TSRAS
GENERATED BY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE. WILL GO WITH
20-30PCT THRU WED... HIGHER OVER THE INTERIOR GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED
SE FLOW COMPONENT...INCREASING TO 30/40PCT ON THU AS MOISTURE
LOADING SLOWLY INCREASES. MAX TEMPS NEAR CLIMO AVG (M/U80S)...MIN
TEMPS ARND 5F ABV AVG (L/M70S).
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR FLYING WX EXPECTED AS SOME VFR MID LVL CIGS AFFECT NRN/CENTRAL
TERMINALS TODAY. ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO OCCUR OFFSHORE
TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDS AT TERMINALS CONTINUING.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...HIGHER SEAS TO 6-7 FT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET INTO THE AFTERNOON AND WILL EXTEND
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THERE UNTIL 4 PM. A 3-5 FT SWELL WILL
AFFECT THE NEAR SHORE WATERS WITH SOME 6 FT SWELLS AFFECTING THE
NEAR SHORE VOLUSIA WATERS TODAY. FOR TONIGHT...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
SWELLS HEIGHTS IS EXPECTED BUT MAY NEED TO CONTINUE CAUTION
OFFSHORE. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/LIGHTNING STORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT AS ANOTHER MID LVL DISTURBANCE PIVOTS SE
AROUND THE CIRCULATION OF ANA.
SAT-TUE...ATLC RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SRN BAHAMAS/GREATER ANTILLES WILL
GRADUALLY REBUILD INTO CENTRAL FL AS SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA DRIFTS
INTO THE CAROLINAS. GENTLE TO MODERATE W/SW BREEZE SAT MRNG WILL
SHIFT TO THE E/SE BY LATE SAT AFTN AND REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SEAS 3-4FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5FT OFFSHORE EARLY
SAT...SUBSIDING TO 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE BY SUNSET SAT
AND CONTG THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RHS TO AROUND 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH NW WINDS TO 10
MPH TODAY. SHOULD BE DRY WITH NO HEADLINES NEEDED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 84 64 86 68 / 10 10 0 10
MCO 87 66 91 68 / 10 10 0 10
MLB 85 65 85 70 / 10 10 10 10
VRB 85 64 86 69 / 10 10 10 10
LEE 87 67 89 69 / 10 0 0 10
SFB 87 67 89 69 / 10 10 0 10
ORL 87 68 90 70 / 10 10 0 10
FPR 85 64 87 69 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLAGLER
BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...BRAGAW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
316 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015
SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATING A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER PARTS OF WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH HAS BROUGHT A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 55 OVERNIGHT. LOCAL OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATING MOST
UNSTABLE CAPES IN THE ORDER OF 400-800 J/KG THRU THE LATE EVENING
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS DEPICTING A
TREND DOWNWARD IN ELEVATED CAPES. SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING HAS A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND THAT UPPER WAVE AND PRECIP ARE
FORECAST BY SHORT TERM MODELS TO PUSH INTO WEST CENTRAL IL BY MID TO
LATE MORNING AND OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE BREAK BETWEEN OUR OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND THE SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S
AGAIN MOST AREAS WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE MIXED LAYER CAPES IN THE ORDER
OF 1500 J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ONLY AROUND 20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE SAME SETUP AS YESTERDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE CONVECTION BEING DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH A PEAK IN STORMS MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON AND MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
BY LATE THIS EVENING. WARMEST TEMPS TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST
WHERE THEY SHOULD ENJOY A LONGER DURATION OF SUNSHINE.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015
SIMILAR FORECAST YET AGAIN WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES
DUE TO A WET FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND WIDESPREAD LIKELY AND HIGH
CHANCE POPS. PLENTY OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AND WAA WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS KEEPING PLENTY OF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION FOR THE SERIES OF
WAVES MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST FROM THE DESERT SW. LOW OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ESTABLISHING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN INTO
THE MIDWEST. BOTH A FRONT SETTLING INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND
A SERIES OF SMALL WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE TROF IN THE SW WILL SET
UP A RATHER WET WEEKEND. THOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE BREAKS IN SOME
OF THE RAINFALL, FORECAST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DOMINATES
THE WEEKEND. FINALLY SEE THE MAIN UPPER LOW LIFT OUT OF THE SW SUN
NIGHT/MONDAY...WITH A STORMY OUTLOOK FOR THE SFC AS A TRUE COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. TIMING FOR THE BOUNDARY ON MONDAY
WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHED AS THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE FOR SOME OF THE
STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH A MIX OF INSTABILITY WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH THE
UPPER LOW LIFTING OUT. COOLER TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR
TUE/WED AS THE AIRMASS SHIFTS EAST AND COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL LINGER FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL IL, GENERALLY CENTERED ALONG THE I-55
CORRIDOR. SOME BACK BUILDING HAS CAUSED THE LINE TO LINGER BACK
ACROSS SPRINGFIELD, BUT THERE SHOULD BE PROGRESS OF THE BACK EDGE
TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PIA SHOULD BE JUST WEST OF
THE PRECIP, WHILE CMI REMAINS EAST OF THE PRECIP FOR THE MOST
PART. ELEVATED INSTABILITY HAS REMAINED SUFFICIENT ENOUGH OF
LIGHTNING DEVELOPMENT AND WILL CONTINUE WITH VCTS AT BMI/DEC/SPI
FOR A COUPLE HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL, BUT BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR VIS IN HEAVIER RAIN COULD DEVELOP, BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO WARRANT A TEMPO GROUP.
WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE NEAR SHOWERS/STORMS, BUT SHOULD GENERALLY RETURN
TO A S-SW DIRECTION BY 09-10Z. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE PROMINENTLY SOUTHWEST
AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12KT BY
AFTERNOON.
THE HRRR IS SHOWING THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD
BEGIN TO AFFECT SPI TOWARD 18Z, EXPANDING NE WITH TIME. SHOWERS
COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING, BUT THE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD BE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...SHIMON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1156 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 901 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015
THE SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE OF SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS TO
THE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. INSTABILITY HAS WEAKENED TO THE POINT THAT VERY FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES HAVE BEEN DETECTED IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO. WILL KEEP AN
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT, AS THE WAVE
DEPARTS TO OUR NE EVENTUALLY. THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIP LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
ARRIVES FROM THE SW. BETTER CHANCES OF STORMS RE-DEVELOPING LOOKS
TO BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPS DROPPED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A GUST FRONT AHEAD OF THE LINE
OF RAIN, BUT THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT REMAINS WEST OF ILLINOIS. SO
THE OVERALL AIRMASS WILL REBOUND ONCE THE PRECIP ENDS TONIGHT. WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH RELATIVELY MILD LOWS IN THE MID 60S.
UPDATES THIS EVENING WERE APPLIED TO THE WEATHER, POPS, SKY AND
WIND GRIDS TO MATCH EXPECTED TRENDS. UPDATED FORECAST INFO IS
ALREADY AVAILABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MO AND IA INTO INTO THE MS
RIVER VALLEY OF IL WILL SPREAD NE ACROSS CENTRAL IL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE THE CONVECTION WEAKENING
AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND BECOMING MORE ISOLATED IN
EASTERN IL OVERNIGHT SO HAVE TRENDED POPS FROM 50-60% IN WEST-
CENTRAL IL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT TO ISOLATED IN EASTERN
IL BY OVERNIGHT. SPC HAS MARGINAL RISK WEST OF A PEORIA TO
JACKSONVILLE LINE WHERE CAPES PEAK FROM 1200-1800 J/KG THROUGH
00Z/7 PM. MAINLY SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING UNTIL SUNSET. GETTING A FEW HALF TO THREE QUARTER INCH
SIZE HAIL REPORTS PAST HOUR OVER NE MO AND FUNNEL CLOUD REPORT
NEAR HANNIBAL MO. COLD FRONT JUST NW OF IA INTO CENTRAL KS TO PUSH
INTO SE IA AND NW MO BY SUNRISE FRI. MILD LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID
60S TONIGHT WITH BREEZY SSW WINDS 10-20 MPH AND GUSTS OF 20-35 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 MPH AFTER SUNSET.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015
AN ACTIVE AND UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS THROUGH MONDAY. MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TIMING AND
INTENSITY THROUGH MONDAY. UNFORTUNATELY, THE LIMITS OF
PREDICTABILITY WITH CONVECTIVE WEATHER MAKE THE DETAILS TOUGH TO
PINPOINT TOO FAR OUT.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS, EVENTUALLY CLEARING THE AREA
ON MONDAY. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WILL END THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN AND PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT A DIURNALLY INDUCED MAXIMUM COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS INTO
SATURDAY AS THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE TO FOCUS PRECIPITATION BY THEN, AND NO SIGNIFICANT NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED EITHER. THE SEVERE THREAT THROUGH SATURDAY
ALSO LOOKS TO BE SPOTTY AT BEST GIVEN WEAK SHEAR PROFILES AND MOSTLY
MODEST INSTABILITY. WHILE THE INSTABILITY IS LIKELY TO BECOME MUCH
BETTER BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, PEAKING IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG, SHEAR
PROFILES STILL DON`T SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER.
THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW, CURRENTLY ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST, WILL
FINALLY GET MOVING AND PASS WEST/NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THIS IS THE FEATURE THAT WILL EVENTUALLY DRIVE THE
SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. ITS APPROACH/PASSAGE WILL ALSO
PROVIDE ENHANCED SHEAR PROFILES LOCALLY (TO GO ALONG WITH GOOD
DIURNAL INSTABILITY) IN THE WEST ON SUNDAY AND AREA-WIDE FOR
MONDAY. THESE DAYS WILL BE OUR MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS,
ESPECIALLY MONDAY.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA MONDAY, QUIET AND COOLER WEATHER
WILL BE WITH US FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT
HAD BEEN MAINLY IN THE 80S THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, WILL FALL INTO THE
60S, WHICH IS BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY/MID MAY. THE COOLER/QUIETER
WEATHER WILL ARRIVE ALONG WITH A STRONG CANADIAN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL LINGER FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL IL, GENERALLY CENTERED ALONG THE I-55
CORRIDOR. SOME BACK BUILDING HAS CAUSED THE LINE TO LINGER BACK
ACROSS SPRINGFIELD, BUT THERE SHOULD BE PROGRESS OF THE BACK EDGE
TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PIA SHOULD BE JUST WEST OF
THE PRECIP, WHILE CMI REMAINS EAST OF THE PRECIP FOR THE MOST
PART. ELEVATED INSTABILITY HAS REMAINED SUFFICIENT ENOUGH OF
LIGHTNING DEVELOPMENT AND WILL CONTINUE WITH VCTS AT BMI/DEC/SPI
FOR A COUPLE HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL, BUT BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR VIS IN HEAVIER RAIN COULD DEVELOP, BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO WARRANT A TEMPO GROUP.
WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE NEAR SHOWERS/STORMS, BUT SHOULD GENERALLY RETURN
TO A S-SW DIRECTION BY 09-10Z. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE PROMINENTLY SOUTHWEST
AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12KT BY
AFTERNOON.
THE HRRR IS SHOWING THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD
BEGIN TO AFFECT SPI TOWARD 18Z, EXPANDING NE WITH TIME. SHOWERS
COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING, BUT THE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD BE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHIMON
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...SHIMON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
416 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO OR NEAR THE
LOCAL AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AROUND NEXT MONDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
MODEL DATA INDICATE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY BE A LITTLE COOLER
THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY...WHICH MAY RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION TODAY THAN THERE HAS BEEN. THAT BEING SAID...DON/T REALLY
SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF A TRIGGER TODAY...OTHER THAN THE POTENTIAL
FOR A COUPLE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING EAST OUT OF ILLINOIS.
ANOTHER POSSIBILITY IS THE REMNANT VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS...WHICH MAY APPROACH THE WESTERN ZONES TOWARDS EVENING.
BASED ON ABOVE...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY TODAY FOR
MAINLY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHEST POPS WEST.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY LOOK
GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS
PERIOD AS LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN STATES
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
DISTURBANCES EJECTING OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH MAY PERIODICALLY
ENHANCE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT TIMING OF
THESE INDIVIDUAL WAVES IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME. THERE ARE ALSO
QUESTIONS REVOLVING HOW FAR SOUTH A FRONTAL ZONE...CURRENTLY OVER
THE NORTHERN MIDWEST...MAY GET THIS WEEKEND. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTIES OF THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES AND FUTURE
LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL ZONE...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR NOW. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE TONIGHT...WHERE
MODELS SUGGEST A BELT OF STRONGER 850MB FLOW WILL CROSS THE
NORTHWEST ZONES TONIGHT. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS IN THOSE AREAS
TONIGHT.
BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS LOWS FOR
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK A LITTLE COOL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTH. WILL RAISE THE GUIDANCE A FEW DEGREES IN THOSE PERIODS.
GUIDANCE HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK OK AT THIS POINT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
THE STORMY UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO START THE WORK
WEEK...QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO A COOLER DRIER REGIME AS AN UPPER
TROUGH EVENTUALLY SETTLES OVER NEW ENGLAND.
EXTENDED MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY E/NE INTO QUEBEC MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THIS WILL FINALLY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LATE
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AS A 40KT+ LOW LEVEL
JET ROTATES INTO THE REGION. POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND A MOIST
UNSTABLE AIRMASS PRESENT OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. PRECIPITATION WILL
END MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE POKES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME THE MAIN INFLUENCE FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO COOLER THAN NORMAL LEVELS
AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRANSITIONS INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES. OP GFS
BECOMES AN OUTLIER AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...HOLDING ONTO A MORE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH MUCH LONGER THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS. BULK OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO NOT SUPPORT THE OP GFS EITHER. HAVE TRENDED
FORECAST TOWARDS THE GLOBAL MODELS...WITH THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING
QUASI-ZONAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STORMS COMES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
THROUGH THE REGION. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 080900Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
DELAYED ARRIVAL OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER BY A COUPLE HOURS AS
IT HAS BEEN SLOWER TO EXPAND EAST INTO THE REGION SO FAR THIS
MORNING. CURRENT RAP STILL INDICATING DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE MORNING WITH A BROKEN CU FIELD
LIKELY BECOMING WELL ESTABLISHED.
06Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THE REST OF TODAY...HOWEVER
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS SUCH AS
MVFR OR EVEN IFR BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA LATE IN THE AVIATION FORECAST PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
TREND THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. MODEL AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
STILL DEPICT THE PRECIPITATION WELL OFF TO THE WEST BREAKING UP AS
IT APPROACHES INDIANA LATE THIS MORNING. THERE ARE VERY WEAK CHANCES
SOME LIGHTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD REACH THE WESTERN TERMINALS
(KHUF/KLAF) BY 9Z AND EASTERN ONES (KIND/KBMG) BY 12Z...HOWEVER
PROBABILITIES AND COVERAGE ARE SO LOW THAT THIS WILL NOT BE
MENTIONED AT THIS TIME.
THEN LATER TODAY ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY BEGIN POPPING
UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MORE LIKELY BY THE EVENING
HOURS...AND CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW WILL INTRODUCE
THESE CHANCES TO THE TAFS AROUND 00Z WITH A BKN040 CB DECK AND
SHOWERS. CERTAINLY NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
DEFINITELY ANY THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING AT PARTICULAR SITE AT A
SPECIFIC TIME AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE...BUT BELIEVE AT THE VERY LEAST
A CB GROUP ALONG WITH VCTS IS WARRANTED.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...SMF/RYAN
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1212 AM CDT Fri May 8 2015
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 405 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015
Challenging forecast again tonight with somewhat disorganized
convection this evening and overnight. Band of stronger
thunderstorms forming in weak convergence and max instability axis
from central KS to southeast Nebraska. 0-6 km bulk shear in that
area in the 30 kt range while 0-1 km shear is weak. Storms could
display some organization with hail and wind the main severe
threats. Very heavy rain may also be a concern with slow storm
movement and the potential for some training. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms in east central KS in an area of weak isentropic lift
and have persisted for awhile today and are not going away by late
afternoon. RAP and last few HRRR runs have done alright with
development along boundary/instability axis and have this area
persist and then move southeast overnight. Heavy rain will be the
main threat later tonight.
Challenge for Friday is how much remnant showers/storms will occur
in the morning. Believe best chances of persistence into the
morning will be in east central Kansas. Several models are then
supportive of a shortwave impulse coming out of the southwest moving
into forecast area around early evening on Friday.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 405 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015
By Friday evening severe convection will form along the dry line
across far southwest KS. That area of convection will likely expand
in coverage as it moves northeastward through the overnight hours.
At the surface a warm front will begin to lift back northward into
the day Saturday. Convection looks to generally track along this
front passing through most of southern KS. Lapse rates decrease
during the evening hours as mid to upper 60 dewpoints spread into
the southern half of the forecast area. This places cape values in
the 1500-2500 j/kg valid at 00Z. Models agree that the cape will
decrease, but remains somewhat modest as the deep layer shear
increases to around 35 kts. The NAM is the most aggressive with an
increasing low level jet developing over southern KS as the storms
approach the area. Given the parameters in place strong to severe
storms are possible. The models are fairly consistent in bringing a
decent amount of QPF through the area by 12Z Sat. Flooding will
definitely be a concern especially given the recent rainfall and
saturated ground at some locations. There is a chance for a dry
period during the day Sat before the next round associated with the
main mid level low ejecting out of the Rockies. The chance for
severe storms overnight Saturday is greater across the area given
the dry line will be further east into central KS. Also, the deep
layer shear looks to be closer to 50 kts and the cape remains as
high as 2000 j/kg. Low level jet increases again leading to wind
profile favorable for supercells and possibly tornadoes. This threat
may diminish during the early morning hours as depicted by the NAM,
which barely brings QPF into the area overnight. The dry line
continues eastward as the main mid level low lifts through NE and
SD. By the time the atmosphere destabilizes the dry line will be
located somewhere in far eastern KS where storms are likely to form.
The vertical wind profile appears to be more unidirectional out of
the southwest, which is more parallel to the boundary possibly
leading to more cell interaction. So discrete supercells initially
may quickly transition into a cluster or line, and there is plenty
of cape and deep layer shear for these storms to be severe Sun
afternoon.
The upper level system finally begins to lift northeast late Sunday
into Monday and becomes and open wave by Tuesday over the Upper
Mississippi Valley. Dry and stable conditions are left in its wake,
which will be very needed by this point as the area needs to dry out
a bit before the next system develops. The upper levels will
transition to a more zonal flow pattern over the Central Plains.
Meanwhile, the next trough will begin to set up over the Western
CONUS. At this point, it could be a similar upper level pattern
developing as has recently been in place. However, at this point,
it doesn`t appear moisture recovery, necessary for as wet of a
pattern, will be in place at least through Thursday night. A quick
upper level shortwave may be ejected out of the Southern Rockies in
the afternoon time frame on Wednesday and possibly interact with a
weak warm boundary near the KS/NE border. There could be some
isolated convection flare up, but at this point it doesn`t appear to
be too noteworthy of an event. Will have to stay tuned as this is
too far out to have much confidence at this point in how exactly it
will play out.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015
Have terminals prevailing VFR with tempo MVFR at TOP/FOE as
showers and thunder may clip the area overnight. Winds become
easterly through the period and next round of convection
approaches late in the TAF period. Will leave for next issuance to
add and refine a time.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GDP
LONG TERM...Drake/Sanders
AVIATION...67
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
445 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015
.DISCUSSION...
MCS CONTINUES TO MARCH EASTWARD BUT IS ALSO GRADUALLY WEAKENING.
LATEST HRRR HAS HANDLED THE CONVECTION QUITE WELL TONIGHT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF BEING TOO SLOW. RADAR TRENDS ALSO PROMOTE HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN THE HRRR IN REGARDS TO THE CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF OUR NRN LA PARISHES/SRN AR COUNTIES NORTH OF
I-20 WHICH SHOULD OCCUR AROUND 12-14Z BASED ON CURRENT SPEEDS.
HAVE ONCE INCLUDED PRE-FIRST PERIOD WORDING TO HANDLE POPS PRIOR
TO 12Z THIS MORNING. WILL LIKELY SEND A ZFP UPDATE AFTER THAT TIME
TO CLEAN UP THE TEXT.
WITH THE MCS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA EARLY IN THE
MORNING...LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE RAIN THIS MORNING SHOULD HAVE
PLENTY OF TIME TO RECOVER. RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COMBINED
WITH SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. YET ANOTHER MCS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM ACROSS SRN OK SOUTHWARD INTO TX. THE
NAM HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN TOO FAST OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH
MOVING CONVECTION INTO THE ARKLATEX. HOWEVER...OTHER MODELS ALSO
INDICATE SHWRS/TSTMS MOVING INTO AREAS NW OF A TYLER TO PRESCOTT
LINE PRIOR TO 09/06Z SO HAVE INCLUDED LIKELY POPS BEGINNING THIS
EVENING. A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS IN PLAY MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
DAMAGING WINDS.
SATURDAY`S FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH A REPEAT OF TODAY. ONE ROUND OF
CONVECTION SHOULD END DURING THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS. POPS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE GOING INTO
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS OVER THE AREA IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH EJECTING NEWD FROM THE ROCKIES INTO
KS/NE. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO APPROACH THE AREA WHICH SHOULD
PROVIDE AN ENHANCED FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT. SEVERE WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY INCLUDING A
THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
THE CONTINUED HIGH RAIN CHANCES POINT TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
BEING POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING COULD
EASILY BE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS MOST
LIKELY ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT INTERACTING WITH THE
FRONT AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC LOW OVER S TX WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED TIME
FRAME. /09/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 85 71 85 70 / 40 30 30 30
MLU 87 69 86 69 / 50 10 30 20
DEQ 83 69 81 68 / 30 50 40 60
TXK 84 69 83 68 / 30 40 40 50
ELD 85 70 84 69 / 40 30 30 30
TYR 85 69 83 71 / 30 40 40 40
GGG 85 71 84 71 / 30 30 30 40
LFK 87 72 85 72 / 30 30 30 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
09
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
519 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY.
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE CAROLINA COAST THIS
WEEKEND BEFORE EJECTING NORTHEAST MONDAY. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIPRES RDG ACRS THE CWFA ATTM...WHICH SHUD REMAIN IN PLACE THRUT THE
DAY. WITH LTL WIND UNDER THE RDG...AREAS OF FOG HV BEEN ABLE TO DVLP
WHERE SKIES ARE CLR. FORTUNATELY...THE GRND NOT WET FM PRVS RAIN AS
IT WAS YDA. IN ADDITION...IN THE ELY FLOW TO THE N OF SUBRTROP
STORM ANA...A MARINE LYR IS ADVCG INLAND. THUS FAR IT REMAINS ACRS
THE DELMARVA. THERE IS A CONCERN WHETHER IT CAN CROSS THE BAY
BEFORE SUNRISE. PREV RUNS OF THE HRRR WERE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
MDL IN THE BUNCH...SUGGESTING THE WRN EDGE OF DENSE FOG WL REACH
I-95. THE MOST RECENT RUNS HV BACKED OFF.
OBS AS OF 4 AND 5AM INDICATING THE VLY FOG HAS BEEN THE BIGGER
CONCERN. HV ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVY FOR MOST OF THE SHEN VLY /IN
THE LWX CWFA/ AS WELL AS INVOF W99...LUA...AND CJR-HWY BASED ON
OBS. ADJUSTED THE MARINE LYR TO THE WRN SHORE OF THE BAY...ALTHO
HV SOME REDUCTIONS FOR BAYSHORE CNTYS NEAR SUNRISE.
FOG SHUD BURN OFF BY MID MRNG...MAYBE A LTL LATER IF A THICK STRATUS
LYR IS REALIZED. DECENT MID LVL LAPSE RATES REMAIN ACRS THE MTNS.
THAT/LL BE THE ONLY PLACE WHERE POPS WL BE PLACED...20-30 PCT FOR
SHRA /MAYBE A TSRA/. SCT CU ELSW.
TEMPS HV BEEN A PINCH WARMER THAN GDNC OF LATE...SO WENT A DEGF
OR TWO ABV WARMER MAV.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ANY PCPN WL END WITH THE SETTING SUN. DONT SEE ANY FORCING FOR THE
REST OF THE NGT. GIVEN A SIMLR SETUP...NOCTURNAL FOG WL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN. GDNC HITTING THE INLAND MARINE LYR ADVECTION HARDER
THAN THIS MRNG. SINCE THERE SHUD BE A BIT MORE LLVL MSTR/SLGTLY HIER
DEWPTS...HV ACCEPTED THIS SOLN IN PREMISE BUT NOT IN PRECISE OUTPUT.
THAT IS...DO NOT HV VSBYS AS LOW AS MDLS SUGGESTING BUT DO HV AREAS
OF FOG IN GRIDS.
BY SAT...ALTHO ANA SHUDNT MV MUCH...GDNC SUGGESTING THAT DEWPTS WL
BE INCRSG...AND SOME PATCHY/LGT QPF PSBL. BELIEVE THAT THE DAY WL BE
CLOUDIER...AND AM OFFERING UP PTSUN SKIES. LOW CONFIDENCE ON ACTUAL
PCPN. LIKE PREMISE OF SOMETHING IN DATABASE...AND WL CARRY ALONG
SCHC POPS FOR APPROX BLURDG EAST FOR THE AFTN INTO THE ELY EVNG HRS.
WL ATTEMPT TO KEEP SAT OVNGT DRY. CUD BE ANOTHR FOG SITUATION LT SAT
NGT AS ONSHORE FLOW WL CONT...BUT WL HOLD OFF ON PLACING THAT INTO
DATABASE AT THIS JUNCTURE.
LIKE FRI...WENT ON THE HIER SIDE FOR MAXT. APPARENT TEMPS WL BE
WARMER TOO SINCE DEWPTS WL BE HIER...MAKING FOR A MUGGY FEEL.
OMITTED THE COOLER GDNC FROM MIN-T BLEND BOTH NIGHTS. THINK THERE
WL HIGH ENUF DEWPTS TO PREVENT SIG RADL COOLING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL HAVE
MOVED OFF THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY WITH SUBTROPICAL ANA MAKING
LANDFALL IN THE CAROLINAS. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID- ATLANTIC
WILL STILL BE IN CONTROL. WINDS SHOULD BECOME PURELY OUT OF THE S
BY SUN AFTERNOON RESULTING IN A WARMER DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID
80S. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIND
FIELD STRENGTHENS SOME SUNDAY AS ANA APPROACHES AND GFS IS FCST
NEAR 1000 J/KG OF CAPE. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
STRONG BUT AT THIS TIME...WIND FIELD IS STILL WEAK SO ONLY
ISOLATED STRONG IS POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY WANES INTO THE EVENING.
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO NC MONDAY AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS A 5
PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM ANA ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC. AT THIS TIME...ANA WILL LIKELY BECOME A DEPRESSION AS IT
WEAKENS OVER LAND. ANA WILL MOVE OVER THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY MONDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVE OUT TO SEA BY TUESDAY MORNING.
HEAVY RAIN SHOULD STAY WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION AND NO
HAZARDOUS IMPACTS FROM ANA ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SEE COASTAL
FLOOD SECTION BELOW.
A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. AT THIS TIME...ACTIVITY WILL BE NEAR I-95 TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BUT TIMING OF COLD FRONT COULD CHANGE THAT.
NW WINDS WILL USHER IN DRIER COOLER AIR MID TO LATE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE BACK AROUND 70
DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOG WL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TERMINALS NOT JUST DURING THE TAF
PD...BUT BYD. ATTM...CLIMO FVRD CHO SEEING THE MOST SGFNT
RESTRICTIONS...PREDOMINANTLY AOB IFR. HV INTRODUCED LIFR IN TAF.
BROUGHT MRB DOWN TO IFR AS WELL.
AM ALSO MONITORING DENSE MARINE LYR WORKING INLAND. THINK IT/LL BE
CLOSE TO BWI/DCA BY SUNRISE...BUT NOT AFFECTING TERMINALS AS PREV
THOUGHT. HV BROUGHT VSBY FCSTS UP...MAYBE A LTL MVFR INVOF BWI AT
12Z.
ONCE MRNG FOG BURNS OFF...VFR REST OF DAY. WL HV SAME FLGT
RESTRICTION CONCERNS TNGT-TMRW MRNG. XPCT FLGT CATEGORIES TO BE
LOWER AND/OR MORE PROLONGED.
SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL PERSISTS IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY-TUESDAY. SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
MARINE AREA UNDER A RDG...KEEPING WINDS AOB 10 KT. SIMLR PTTN WL
HOLD THRU SAT...W/ ELY FLOW GRDLY BECOMING MORE SLY.
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA WILL APPROACH THE WATERS SUN-MON. S WINDS
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS
TUESDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS REMAINING CLOSE TO ASTRO PREDICTIONS TDA. HWVR...LVLS MAY
RISE AS SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA SPINS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. INCREASES
MAY BE REALIZED AS SOON AS SUNDAY-MONDAY. IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME
WHETHER ANY THRESHOLDS WL BE CROSSED. IF THEY ARE...SUSPECT THAT
WUDNT HAPPEN UNTIL MONDAY AT THE EARLIEST.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025>027-
029-051-502.
WV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ055.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...HAS
AVIATION...HAS/HTS
MARINE...HAS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
407 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY.
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE CAROLINA COAST THIS
WEEKEND BEFORE EJECTING NORTHEAST MONDAY. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIPRES RDG ACRS THE CWFA ATTM...WHICH SHUD REMAIN IN PLACE THRUT THE
DAY. WITH LTL WIND UNDER THE RDG...AREAS OF FOG HV BEEN ABLE TO DVLP
WHERE SKIES ARE CLR. FORTUNATELY...THE GRND NOT WET FM PRVS RAIN AS
IT WAS YDA...AND FOG NOT AS EXTENSIVE OR DENSE. HWVR...IN THE ELY
FLOW TO THE N OF SUBRTROP STORM ANA...A MARINE LYR IS ADVCG
INLAND. THUS FAR IT REMAINS ACRS THE DELMARVA. THERE IS A CONCERN
WHETHER IT CAN CROSS THE BAY BEFORE SUNRISE. HRRR THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE MDL IN THE BUNCH...SUGGESTING THE WRN EDGE OF DENSE FOG
WL REACH I-95. WHILE I LIKE THE PREMISE...THINK THE OUTPUT A LTL
TOO DIRE. HV SOUGHT A MODIFIED VERSION OF IT-- AREAS OF FOG /BUT
NOT DENSE/ TO I- 95 AS WELL AS FILLING IN THE CLIMO FAVORED AREAS
IN THE VA FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT. STILL NEED TO MONITOR MTR AS THERE
IS THE POTL FOR A DENSE FOG ADVY IN THE CLIMO FVRD VLYS.
FOG SHUD BURN OFF BY MID MRNG...MAYBE A LTL LATER IF A THICK STRATUS
LYR IS REALIZED. DECENT MID LVL LAPSE RATES REMAIN ACRS THE MTNS.
THAT/LL BE THE ONLY PLACE WHERE POPS WL BE PLACED...20-30 PCT FOR
SHRA /MAYBE A TSRA/. SCT CU ELSW.
TEMPS HV BEEN A PINCH WARMER THAN GDNC OF LATE...SO WENT A DEGF
OR TWO ABV WARMER MAV.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ANY PCPN WL END WITH THE SETTING SUN. DONT SEE ANY FORCING FOR THE
REST OF THE NGT. GIVEN A SIMLR SETUP...NOCTURNAL FOG WL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN. GDNC HITTING THE INLAND MARINE LYR ADVECTION HARDER
THAN THIS MRNG. SINCE THERE SHUD BE A BIT MORE LLVL MSTR/SLGTLY HIER
DEWPTS...HV ACCEPTED THIS SOLN IN PREMISE BUT NOT IN PRECISE OUTPUT.
THAT IS...DO NOT HV VSBYS AS LOW AS MDLS SUGGESTING BUT DO HV AREAS
OF FOG IN GRIDS.
BY SAT...ALTHO ANA SHUDNT MV MUCH...GDNC SUGGESTING THAT DEWPTS WL
BE INCRSG...AND SOME PATCHY/LGT QPF PSBL. BELIEVE THAT THE DAY WL BE
CLOUDIER...AND AM OFFERING UP PTSUN SKIES. LOW CONFIDENCE ON ACTUAL
PCPN. LIKE PREMISE OF SOMETHING IN DATABASE...AND WL CARRY ALONG
SCHC POPS FOR APPROX BLURDG EAST FOR THE AFTN INTO THE ELY EVNG HRS.
WL ATTEMPT TO KEEP SAT OVNGT DRY. CUD BE ANOTHR FOG SITUATION LT SAT
NGT AS ONSHORE FLOW WL CONT...BUT WL HOLD OFF ON PLACING THAT INTO
DATABASE AT THIS JUNCTURE.
LIKE FRI...WENT ON THE HIER SIDE FOR MAXT. APPARENT TEMPS WL BE
WARMER TOO SINCE DEWPTS WL BE HIER...MAKING FOR A MUGGY FEEL.
OMITTED THE COOLER GDNC FROM MIN-T BLEND BOTH NIGHTS. THINK THERE
WL HIGH ENUF DEWPTS TO PREVENT SIG RADL COOLING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL HAVE
MOVED OFF THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY WITH SUBTROPICAL ANA MAKING
LANDFALL IN THE CAROLINAS. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID- ATLANTIC
WILL STILL BE IN CONTROL. WINDS SHOULD BECOME PURELY OUT OF THE S
BY SUN AFTERNOON RESULTING IN A WARMER DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID
80S. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIND
FIELD STRENGTHENS SOME SUNDAY AS ANA APPROACHES AND GFS IS FCST
NEAR 1000 J/KG OF CAPE. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
STRONG BUT AT THIS TIME...WIND FIELD IS STILL WEAK SO ONLY
ISOLATED STRONG IS POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY WANES INTO THE EVENING.
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO NC MONDAY AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS A 5
PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM ANA ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC. AT THIS TIME...ANA WILL LIKELY BECOME A DEPRESSION AS IT
WEAKENS OVER LAND. ANA WILL MOVE OVER THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY MONDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVE OUT TO SEA BY TUESDAY MORNING.
HEAVY RAIN SHOULD STAY WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION AND NO
HAZARDOUS IMPACTS FROM ANA ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SEE COASTAL
FLOOD SECTION BELOW.
A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. AT THIS TIME...ACTIVITY WILL BE NEAR I-95 TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BUT TIMING OF COLD FRONT COULD CHANGE THAT.
NW WINDS WILL USHER IN DRIER COOLER AIR MID TO LATE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE BACK AROUND 70
DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOG WL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TERMINALS NOT JUST DURING THE TAF
PD...BUT BYD. ATTM...CLIMO FVRD CHO SEEING THE MOST SGFNT
RESTRICTIONS...SPORADICALLY AOB IFR. AT THIS POINT...HV LIMITED
VSBYS TO IFR IN FCST...AND WL ONLY GO LWR IF OBSVD TRENDS DICTATE.
AM KEEPING MRB AT MVFR GIVEN HIGH CLDS INHIBITING FOG FORMATION.
AM ALSO MONITORING DENSE MARINE LYR WORKING INLAND. THINK IT/LL BE
CLOSE TO BWI/DCA BY SUNRISE. HV TAKEN IFR RESTRICTIONS TO BWI...BUT
NOT TO DCA. CONFIDENCE ON THIS SOLN NOT HIGH...AND MARGIN OF ERROR
ADMITTEDLY HUGE. WL AMD IF NEEDED.
ONCE MRNG FOG BURNS OFF...VFR REST OF DAY. WL HV SAME FLGT
RESTRICTION CONCERNS TNGT-TMRW MRNG. XPCT FLGT CATEGORIES TO BE
LOWER.
SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL PERSISTS IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY-TUESDAY. SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
MARINE AREA UNDER A RDG...KEEPING WINDS AOB 10 KT. SIMLR PTTN WL
HOLD THRU SAT...W/ ELY FLOW GRDLY BECOMING MORE SLY.
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA WILL APPROACH THE WATERS SUN-MON. S WINDS
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS
TUESDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS REMAINING CLOSE TO ASTRO PREDICTIONS TDA. HWVR...LVLS MAY
RISE AS SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA SPINS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. INCREASES
MAY BE REALIZED AS SOON AS SUNDAY-MONDAY. IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME
WHETHER ANY THRESHOLDS WL BE CROSSED. IF THEY ARE...SUSPECT THAT
WUDNT HAPPEN UNTIL MONDAY AT THE EARLIEST.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...HAS
AVIATION...HAS/HTS
MARINE...HAS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
315 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A THIN VEIL OF HIGH CIRRUS
OVER THE LOWER 3/4 OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OFF DRAMATICALLY EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE RESULT HAS BEEN A WIDE VARIETY OF TEMPERATURES AND EVEN MORE
VARYING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. THINKING THIS TRANSLATES TO PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW
MORNINGS. ALMOST A PERSISTENCE FORECAST IN THAT REGARD...THE ONLY
DIFFERENCE BEING THE ADDITION OF HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD HELP LIMIT
SPATIAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.
EXPECTING TO LOSE THE HIGH CLOUDS BY MID-MORNING...LEADING TO
ANOTHER MORNING OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND A QUICK WARM-UP. ALL
SIGNS POINT TO AN EVEN WARMER DAY THAN THURSDAY...AS LOW TO MID-
LEVEL TEMPERATURES PUSH EVEN HIGHER WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
VEERING TO SOUTHERLY. LATEST RAP IS CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN THE
REST OF THE GUIDANCE WITH 850MB TEMPS NEARING 19C. THIS COMBINED
WITH SUNSHINE WOULD MEAN TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE 90S. AT
THIS POINT...FEEL THESE MID-LEVEL TEMPS ARE UNATTAINABLE IN THE
ABSENCE OF A STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION SIGNAL. WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE WARM MET NUMBERS.
THE WARM SUMMER-LIKE AIR MASS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN GENERATE ISOLATED
OR SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE
OF THE HIGH TERRAIN. OTHERWISE...NOT CARRYING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
TONIGHT. YET ANOTHER MILD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
TAX
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE STATUS QUO IS BASICALLY MAINTAINED INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
AS UPPER RIDGING REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE AREA INTO THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE HAS LARGELY SLOWED THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ALL
WEEK AS IT EJECTS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THIS RESULTS IN WARM
CONDITIONS PERSISTING RIGHT INTO MONDAY.
RELATIVELY CONTINUOUS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP HUMID
CONDITIONS IN PLACE. POOR MODEL-TO-MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY EXISTS WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY. YET AGAIN WITH THE 00Z CYCLE
TONIGHT...SOME MODELS FAVOR IT...OTHERS DO NOT. BECAUSE OF THE
WARM/HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
BE HIGH...AND GIVEN THAT A LIFTING MECHANISM WILL BE REQUIRED TO
GENERATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION...CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS WERE MAINTAINED GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF THE WAVE
PASSAGE ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...A SLOWER TRANSITION EASTWARD OF
LARGE SCALE RIDGING MEANS LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES LINGER IN THE MID TEENS...HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO
LOOK TO REMAIN LARGELY IN THE 60S...THOUGH WITH EACH PASSING
NIGHT...BOTH THERMAL BELTS AND URBAN HEAT ISLANDS ARE LIKELY TO
BECOME STRONGER. THIS WAS REFLECTED IN OVERNIGHT LOW TRENDS IN THE
FORECAST. FRIES
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN INTERESTING TREND HAS DEVELOPED AMONGST THE GUIDANCE WITH
RESPECT TO THE BREAKDOWN OF THE THE RIDGE AS A DEEP UPPER LOW
MOVES EASTWARD AND LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. PREVIOUS MODEL
GUIDANCE HAD LARGELY BLASTED THIS FEATURE RIGHT THROUGH OUR
REGION. MORE RECENT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR A MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK OF IT...WITH ONLY SHORT WAVE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT AND A MUCH
WEAKER MOISTURE FIELD TRANSITING THE AREA LARGELY MONDAY NIGHT.
POPS CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED ON THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER THE DRY
PERIOD BEFORE AND AFTER ITS PASSAGE HAVE BEEN BOTH LENGTHENED.
BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FAVOR BROAD TROUGHING BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS WITH A RIDGE SETTING UP OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
ROCKIES. WITH THE JET AXIS LARGELY TO OUR SOUTH...MOISTURE FLOW
TOWARD THE AREA WILL BE CUT OFF AND DRY CANADIAN AIR WILL LARGELY
BE IN CHARGE. THIS WILL MEAN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND MORE
SUN THAN CLOUDS. IT STILL REMAINS POSSIBLE THAT SOME FROSTS COULD
OCCUR IN SOME LOCATIONS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. FRIES
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CALM WINDS AND RELATIVELY HUMID CONDITIONS COULD MEAN ANOTHER
ROUND OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. THE PRIMARY
ISSUE...HOWEVER...IS THE ADDITION OF HIGH CIRRUS IS KEEPING
DEWPOINT SPREADS ELEVATED THIS MORNING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
THESE DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL KEEP ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT LIMITED
SPATIALLY AND IN INTENSITY EVEN MORE SO THAN THE LAST FEW
MORNINGS.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH MID-LEVEL
CU FIELD EXPECTED. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MD/WV.
TAX
.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WILL BE MONDAY WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
227 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A THIN VEIL OF HIGH CIRRUS
OVER THE LOWER 3/4 OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OFF DRAMATICALLY EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE RESULT HAS BEEN A WIDE VARIETY OF TEMPERATURES AND EVEN MORE
VARYING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. THINKING THIS TRANSLATES TO PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW
MORNINGS. ALMOST A PERSISTENCE FORECAST IN THAT REGARD...THE ONLY
DIFFERENCE BEING THE ADDITION OF HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD HELP LIMIT
SPATIAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.
EXPECTING TO LOSE THE HIGH CLOUDS BY MID-MORNING...LEADING TO
ANOTHER MORNING OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND A QUICK WARM-UP. ALL
SIGNS POINT TO AN EVEN WARMER DAY THAN THURSDAY...AS LOW TO MID-
LEVEL TEMPERATURES PUSH EVEN HIGHER WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
VEERING TO SOUTHERLY. LATEST RAP IS CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN THE
REST OF THE GUIDANCE WITH 850MB TEMPS NEARING 19C. THIS COMBINED
WITH SUNSHINE WOULD MEAN TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE 90S. AT
THIS POINT...FEEL THESE MID-LEVEL TEMPS ARE UNATTAINABLE IN THE
ABSENCE OF A STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION SIGNAL. WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE WARM MET NUMBERS.
THE WARM SUMMER-LIKE AIRMASS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN GENERATE ISOLATED
OR SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE
OF THE HIGH TERRAIN. OTHERWISE...NOT CARRYING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
TONIGHT. YET ANOTHER MILD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
TAX
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LARGE SCALE PATTERN LOOKS TO STAY RATHER STAGNANT THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH LOW
TO MID 80`S EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS. HOWEVER...DESPITE MODEST INSTABILITY
FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS...THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A
LIFTING MECHANISM OR SHEAR FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. AN APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE MAY BRING THE
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT AT THIS
POINT...THE BOUNDARY ITSELF MAY STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN MONDAY AS A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS. MUCH COOLER INTO MID WEEK AS
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND LARGE SURFACE HIGH
SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. PREVIOUS FORECAST
UNCHANGED AND IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH WPC PROGS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CALM WINDS AND RELATIVELY HUMID CONDITIONS COULD MEAN ANOTHER
ROUND OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. THE PRIMARY
ISSUE...HOWEVER...IS THE ADDITION OF HIGH CIRRUS IS KEEPING
DEWPOINT SPREADS ELEVATED THIS MORNING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
THESE DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL KEEP ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT LIMITED
SPATIALLY AND IN INTENSITY EVEN MORE SO THAN THE LAST FEW
MORNINGS.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH MID-LEVEL
CU FIELD EXPECTED. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MD/WV.
TAX
.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WILL BE MONDAY WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
445 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED SW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM
THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...A
COLD FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN WI FROM
LOW PRES OVER NW ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL CONV NEAR THE
FRONT AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NW WI
SUPPORTED SCT/ISOLD SHRA INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI. WITH NIGHTTIME
COOLING...THE CONVECTION HAD WEAKENED ENOUGH SO THAT NO LIGHTNING WAS
OBSERVED OVER THE REGION.
TODAY...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE EAST AS THE LOW MOVES
TOWARD JAMES BAY. MODELS AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT SCT/ISOLD
SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH WRN UPPER MI. EXPECT
HIGHER SHRA/TSRA CHANCES OVER THE CNTRL AND EAST...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING
WITH THE POTENTIAL TO INTERACT WITH LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES. WITH
MLCAPE VALUES OF ONLY 400-800 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30-35
KNOTS...CONDITIONS WILL MARGINAL FOR ANY STRONGER STORMS. THERE IS
ALSO STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AMOUNT CLOUD COVER AND
HEATING/INSTABILITY.
TONIGHT...AFTER THE SHRA/TSRA MOVE OUT OF THE ERN CWA DURING THE
EVENING...EXPECT DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE CONTINUED
TREND OF KEEPING SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF UPPER MI. SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES OR PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY
DEVELOP LATE NORTH CENTRAL WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
PERIOD OF CYCLONIC NNE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE LONGER TERM FOCUS ON COVERAGE OF LO CLDS
ON SAT/SAT NGT AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A WELCOME WDSPRD PCPN
EVENT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE CLOSED LO NOW OVER THE DESERT SW AND
ACCOMPANYING SFC LO PRES LIFT NE TOWARD THE UPR LKS. MUCH COOLER WX
WL DOMINATE UPR MI DURING MOST OF THE LONGER TERM.
SAT...SINCE THE UPR FLOW IS FCST TO REMAIN SW BTWN MEAN RDG OVER THE
SE CONUS AND GENERAL TROFFING IN CENTRAL NAMERICA...THE COLD FNT
ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING SFC LO IN QUEBEC IS PROGGED TO STALL OVER
THE LOWER GRT LKS. SOME RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN A LO PRES
RIDING ALONG THIS BNDRY AND BRINGING SOME PCPN TO MAINLY THE SE
CWA...BUT THE BULK OF THE LATEST RUNS NOW INDICATE THIS LO/PCPN WL
REMAIN TO THE SE OF UPR MI. DESPITE THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MID LVL
DRYING...LINGERING LLVL MSTR IN NE FLOW ON THE SE FLANK OF SFC HI
PRES OVER SCENTRAL CANADA WL LIKELY BRING SOME LO CLDS OVER THE
NCENTRAL AND E. PER THE 00Z NAM/CNDN FCST...DID MAINTAIN A MENTION
OF SOME SPRINKLES OVER THE NCENTRAL WHERE UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT WL
BE MAXIMIZED. WITH LLVL NE FLOW OFF THE CHILLY LK WATERS...HI TEMPS
NEAR LK SUP IN THIS AREA WL BE HARD PRESSED TO GET OUT OF THE 40S.
WITH MORE SUNSHINE OVER THE W AND SCENTRAL...HI TEMPS SHOULD APRCH
60 WITH MIXING TO H85 ON FCST SDNGS.
SAT NGT...HI PRES IN SCENTRAL CANADA IS FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY E INTO
FAR NW ONTARIO WHILE CLOSED LO LIFTING OUT OF THE DESERT SW CAUSES
SFC LO PRES IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO BEGIN SHIFTING NEWD. AS THE
LLVL FLOW OVER THE UPR LKS BEGINS TO VEER A BIT IN THE PRESENCE OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING...THE SC IMPACTING THE NCENTRAL AND E MAY TEND TO
DRIFT TOWARD THE W AND OVERSPREAD ALL BUT THE W WHERE THE LLVL ENE
FLOW DOWNSLOPES BY 12Z SUN. SOME HI CLDS WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE
CLOSED LO/SFC LO PRES MAY REACH THE WRN CWA BY DAYBREAK ON SUN.
SUN...ALTHOUGH CONTINUED VEERING LLVL FLOW TOWARD THE E WOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME LLVL MSTR/AT LEAST BKN LO CLDS TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE CWA...
SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW SOME LLVL DRYING ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE HI
IN FAR NW ONTARIO SUFFICIENT TO BREAK UP THIS CLD EXCEPT OVER THE
SCNTRAL. EVEN IF/WHERE THIS SC IS ABSENT...MID/HI CLDS WL BE INCRSG
IN DIFFLUENT UPR FLOW/INCRSG ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF CLOSED
LO MOVING NEWD THRU THE PLAINS. WITH ARRIVAL OF MORE VIGOROUS DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC IN THE AFTN...MOST OF THE MODELS DO
GENERATE SOME PCPN OVER AT LEAST THE WRN CWA IN THE AFTN...SO WL
MAINTAIN FCST HIER CHC POPS IN THAT AREA.
SUN NGT THRU TUE...AS NEGATIVELTY TILTED CLOSED LO OPENS UP AND
LIFTS ENEWD INTO THE UPR LKS BY TUE...SFC LO PRES IS PROGGED TO MOVE
ENEWD FM SE SDAKOTA ON SUN EVNG INTO WI BY LATE MON AND THEN INTO SE
ONTARIO BY TUE MRNG. THE TRACK OF THESE FEATURES AND ACCOMPANYING
DYNAMIC FORCING/DIFFLUENT UPR FLOW/DEEP CYC FLOW/PWAT AOA 1 INCH
INDICATE THERE WL BE AT LEAST PERIODS OF RA. IF THE UPR LO DRIFTS A
BIT FARTHER TO THE N...BREAKS IN THE PCPN WOULD BE MORE LIKELY
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN TIER. ON THE OTHER HAND...IF THE UPR LO
TRACKS A BIT FARTHER TO THE S...A MORE PERSISTENT CCB WOULD BRING
ABOUT MORE CONTINUOUS PCPN. THE LATEST CPC HAZARDS CHART INDICATES A
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RA OVER THE ENTIRE CWA. DID INTRODUCE A
SCHC OF TS OVER THE FAR SCENTRAL SUN NGT INTO MON AS THE 00Z ECMWF
SHOWS A BIT FARTHER N TRACK OF THE UPR LO/HIER INSTABILITY OVER THAT
AREA. AS THE SFC LO EXITS TO THE E ON TUE...THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER
AIR WITH H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -5C MAY ALLOW THE PCPN TO MIX WITH SN
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NCNTRL AND W BEFORE THE EXIT
OF THE FORCING/ARRIVAL OF MORE ACYC FLOW CAUSES THE PCPN TO DIMINISH
LATER IN THE DAY. SINCE THE COLDER AIR WL ARRIVE AFTER 12Z
TUE...DAYTIME INSOLATION SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTAIL FOR MUCH IF ANY
SN ACCUM EXCEPT PERHAPS ON GRASSY SFCS.
WED/THU...CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME APRNT DURING THIS
LATER PORTION OF THE FCST. THE 00Z GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
MAINTAINING A LARGER SCALE TROF/COLDER AIR THRU WED...THEN SHOWS AN
UPR RDG/DRIER AIR DOMINATING THE AREA ON THU. THE 00Z ECMWF ON THE
OTHER HAND SHOWS BUILDING HGTS MUCH FASTER ON WED...AND THEN BRINGS
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/SOME PCPN TOWARD THE AREA ON THU. WL RELY ON THE
MODEL CONSENSUS FCST THIS FAR OUT IN THE FCST PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
WILL SEE CONTINUED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH IFR/MVFR CEILINGS MOVING IN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
LATE TONIGHT AT IWD AND CMX. SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT SAW...LAKE BREEZE AND COLD FRONT KICK OFF
SOME MVFR CIGS AND SHOWERS FRI AFTERNOON AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY...WINDS WILL
BECOME NW TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AREAS OF FOG WILL FORM
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AS PRECIPITATION FALLS INTO THE ALREADY MOIST AIR
BELOW A STRONG INVERSION. AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE UPPER LAKES FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST. SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1149 PM CDT Thu May 7 2015
.UPDATE...
Issued at 953 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015
Based on last several runs of the HRRR model and the 00Z NAM think
we`ll see additional more elevated convection form from central KS
through west central MO as the cold front sags southeast. This will
likely yield occasional rounds of moderate intensity rainfall. Not
expecting flash flooding type rains but more like ponding of water or
minor nuisance type urbanized flooding. Will increase PoPs to
categorical over the west central counties with some expansion to the
northeast and southwest. Have also increased Friday morning PoPs
over the southwestern third of the CWA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 408 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015
Little change to the forecast was made in this package, as the
looming threat of multiple rounds of thunderstorms - some severe,
some non-severe...some with persistent heavy rain, some with passing
showers - over the next few days, culminating with a couple days of
likely severe weather through the weekend.
For the rest of the day on Saturday the surface cold front is
currently located roughly from KOMA to KLBL by way of KGBD. Some
weak showers and thunderstorms have formed along this boundary
across Kansas, SE Nebraska, and SW Iowa. Along and just ahead of
this boundary ML CAPE values approaching 1500 J/Kg are present, so
these storms could exhibit some robust updraft potential. The main
limiting factors for severe weather is the deep layer effective
shear, which is currently around 20 kts. With decent instability and
marginal shear it is unlikely that any severe weather occurs with
this activity, but it`s conceivable that an isolated cell or two
could demonstrate some hail up to quarter sized and/or an isolated
wind gust or two around 60 mph. Out ahead of the slowly moving cold
front in the warmer air a few showers and thunderstorms are ongoing,
and this appears to be in response to a very weak impulse in the
midlevels. Deeper in the warm air instability values are actually a
bit weaker than nearer to the cold front, and deep layer effective
shear is minimal, so severe risk across southern and central
Missouri is rather low.
Overnight tonight the boundary will sag southward and set up
residence in the forecast area, likely somewhere between HWY 36 and
I-70 somewhere. Showers and thunderstorms will fire off that
boundary through a good portion of the overnight hours, bringing
several periods of rain to that area. Then by Friday afternoon the
boundary will lift north and could fire off a few rounds of
precipitation. With ML CAPE values south of the boundary in the 1000
to 1500 J/kg range there will be enough instability to get robust
updrafts, and effective shear values will even be a bit higher than
Thursday, with 0-6 km shear vectors out of the southwest around 30
kts. With shear vectors likely parallel to the boundary, it`s
possible that storms go up on the boundary, then follow each other
along that boundary. Expect robust severe weather to form in the
southern plains, and depending on the track of the upscale growth of
those storms we could see a rather wet overnight period on Friday
night into Saturday morning.
Saturday and Sunday bring with it a rather large bit of uncertainty.
By Saturday morning the boundary will lift back to the north and
could set up in northern Missouri, or perhaps north of the IA/MO
border. This boundary could be the focus for some convection on
Saturday, despite the main area of afternoon/evening convection
being in the central and southern plains. Instability on Saturday
will be rather high with ML CAPE values approaching 2000 to 2500
J/kg. Forecast hodographs along that boundary look to be rather
impressive with good clockwise curvature. Should any storms be able
to go up away from the dryline - which will be set up in western
KS/OK - then they could end up being rather potent with some storms
becoming severe. Despite the uncertainty with the afternoon/evening
convection it appears more certain that the big convection over the
western plains will congeal into a series of convective systems and
move eastward toward the forecast area. This would likely bring at
the minimum a period of heavy rain overnight on Saturday, with
perhaps some gusty winds and hail.
The focus then turns to Sunday, when a more classic severe weather
set up moves into eastern Kansas and western Missouri. The large
trough over the western CONUS will eject out and bring with it lots
of mid level ascent. The surface dryline/pacific front will be on
the doorstep of the forecast area when the trough ejects out, and
this could kick off a round of widespread robust convection.
Instability and shear parameters will likely be sufficient for
scattered to widespread severe weather. Details regarding the
weekend rounds of strong to severe storms will depend strongly on
mesoscale influences, thusly details about how everything plays out
will depend on signals that appear closer to the event. At any rate
with high PW values and multiple chances for convective systems to
move through over the next several days there still exists the
potential for several inches of rain across a widespread area. With
antecedent conditions being somewhat soggy - characterized by
several days of light to moderate rain - there will exist the
possibility for some flash flooding as well as stream flooding
across the area.
By Monday the pacific front will move through the area, and perhaps
clear the forecast area to the east, across central Missouri. There
could be some initiation of Monday cells across the far eastern edge
of the CWA on Monday, but with dry air working into the area, the
chances for precip on Monday should be confined to that area, with
dry conditions west of the boundary.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015
Precipitation will continue off an on through the period as storms
develop to the west. Initially, expecting some nearby convective
activity to continue overnight with light rain showers steadily
pushing eastward. A frontal boundary will sweep through the area in
the morning, which will weaken the convective activity, though
periodic rain showers will linger. Expecting to see a dry period
through the afternoon, though some models have indicated at isolated
convection during this time frame. Toward the very end of the period,
will likely see further development of thunderstorm activity as winds
continue to veer to the east.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Welsh
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1158 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2015
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
DRY LINE WITH GULF MOISTURE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND IT HAD ADVANCED
INTO ROUGHLY THE EAST HALF OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. THIS WILL LIKELY
ALLOW SOME PATCHY MVFR OR EVEN IFR CIGS AND POSS FOG INTO THIS
AREA...ROUGHLY NEAR AND ESPECIALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM CAPULIN TO
ROSWELL. THIS AREA ALSO WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DEVELOPING
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA AS WELL BETWEEN APPROX 08Z AND 13Z. GREATEST
RISK OF EITHER OCCURRENCE AT A TERMINAL SITE WILL BE AT TCC. WX
CONDITIONS FRI SIMILAR TO THU...EXCEPT WINDS SFC AND ALOFT WILL BE
STRONGER THAN TODAY AND MAY GUST BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KTS ACROSS SW
AND FAR WEST CENTRAL NM BETWEEN 19Z AND 24Z FRI. ISOLATED MID AFTN
THROUGH EVE SHRA AND TSRA...PERHAPS A FEW STRONG ONES WITH HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS...POSS NEAR TX AND CO LINE.
43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...924 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2015...
.UPDATE...
DRYLINE IS RETREATING QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND IF HRRR/RUC PROGS
ARE CORRECT...WILL RETREAT AT LEAST TO A KRTN TO SANTA ROSA TO
KROW LINE. HAVE INCREASED DEWPOINTS AND LOW TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES
EAST OF THE DRYLINE OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION TO A STRAY SHOWER OR
TSTM IN THESE AREAS...THERE IS AN INCREASING CHANCE THAT FOG WILL
DEVELOP...SO HAVE ADDED FOG AFTER 06Z IN THESE LOCATIONS. THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND FOG WILL MIX OUT BY MID MORNING AS
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS RAMP BACK UP.
ELSEWHERE...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ACROSS SE AZ ON THE
NOSE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET. THE NOSE OF THE JET IS PROGGED TO
MOVE INTO WESTERN NM OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW OVER CALI SHIFT
EASTWARD...AND THE LATEST HRRR SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE IT INTO NM. SO HAVE ADDED SOME 10-POPS
ACROSS THE WEST AFTER 06Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.
34
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...345 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2015...
...CORRECTED TYPOGRAPHICAL ERROR...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE DRYLINE INVADED EASTERN NEW MEXICO LAST NIGHT...BUT HAS NOW
DRIFTED BACK TOWARD THE NEW MEXICO-TEXAS BORDER. THIS BOUNDARY
WHICH SEPARATES DRY AIR TO THE WEST AND MOIST UNSTABLE AIR TO THE
EAST CAN OFTEN TRIGGER SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND COULD DO SO LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY ALSO INVADE
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AS A COLD FRONT SAGS NEAR THE AREA.
OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE JUST A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL SECTION OF NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LEAVE CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY...DRIFTING INTO
ARIZONA WHILE BRINGING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TO NEW MEXICO. A
FEW STRONG STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF NEW MEXICO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT STALLS. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO SATURDAY
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWEEPS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
INTO COLORADO. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY...AND WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY WITH
THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF NEW MEXICO REMAINING
THE FAVORED AREAS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
DRYLINE MADE AN APPEARANCE THIS MORNING IN THE EARLY
MORNING...IGNITING ONLY A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS IN EAST
CENTRAL NM BEFORE THEY QUICKLY ESCAPED INTO TX. THE DRYLINE HAS
SLOSHED BACK TO THE EAST SOME WITH SOME DEWPOINTS HAVING LOWERED
BACK INTO THE 30S AND 40S AROUND KTCC...KCVN...KCVS...AND
VICINITY. SUSPECT NO STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP IN EASTERN NM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS THE
DRYLINE SLOSHES BACK WEST. HAVE KEPT 20 PERCENT POPS ALONG THE
EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. AM ALSO
EXPECTING CONVECTION IN EASTERN CO TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND
MORE WIDESPREAD...POTENTIALLY ENHANCING THE COLD POOL AND DRIVING
THE SURFACE FRONT INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF NM THIS EVENING.
ANY STORMS THAT DO ENTER NORTHEAST WOULD HAVE BETTER CHANCES FOR
TURNING STRONG TO SEVERE WITH BETTER VEERING WIND PROFILES AND
HIGHER SHEAR.
AS UPPER LOW EXITS CA AND ENTERS AZ ON FRIDAY...STRONGER
SOUTHWESTERLIES ARE DRAWN OVER NM WHILE A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEEPEN. THE SURFACE LOW WILL NOT BE OPTIMALLY LOCATED FOR A VERY
STRONG WIND EVENT...BUT SUFFICIENT DEEP VERTICAL MIXING SHOULD
TRANSPORT SOME BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DOWN TO THE SURFACE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BEST FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION VIA DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT AND EVEN SOME OROGRAPHICS WILL BE PLACED OVER THE NORTHERN
TIER OF NM WHILE THE SURFACE FRONT WASHING OUT IN THE NORTHEAST
COULD ALSO INITIATE SOME STORMS IF IT TAKES ITS TIME RETREATING.
SATURDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE THE MORE DYNAMIC DAY WITH THE LOW
PROGRESSING QUICKLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND THEN INTO CO. THIS
WILL DYNAMICALLY COOL THE ATMOSPHERE OVER NM WHILE SPREADING EVEN
STRONGER WINDS INTO THE STATE DUE TO STRONGER BELT OF WINDS ALOFT
WRAPPING THE BASE OF THE LOW AND A DEEPENING LEE SIDE SURFACE
CYCLONE IN EASTERN CO. STRONGEST WINDS HAVE BEEN BUILT INTO
NORTHEAST NM...AND AN ADVISORY OR OTHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE
NECESSARY. PRECIPITATION WILL FAVOR THE NORTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHWESTERN ZONES...BUT QPF IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH. HOWEVER...SNOW
LEVELS COULD LOWER TO 7000 TO 8000 FEET IN SOME AREAS
SATURDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE TO A FEW INCHES OF HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL 5 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW EARLY MAY CLIMATOLOGY ON SATURDAY.
THE LOW WILL EXIT INTO THE GREAT PLAINS SUNDAY...BUT WRAP-AROUND
DYNAMICS WILL KEEP SOME PRECIPITATION GOING OVER THE NORTHERN
ZONES OF NM...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN
ZONES. BREEZES WILL REDUCE IN SPEED CONSIDERABLY...BUT WILL STILL
BE QUITE BRISK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE SUNDAY...AND A BACK DOOR FRONTAL INTRUSION IS STILL
ADVERTISED BY THE FORECAST MODELS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.
WHILE A QUIETER DAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH REBOUNDING
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WINDS...MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL BE
STAGING FOR MORE ADVERSE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE TUESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY PERIOD. WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER SOUTHEASTERLY IN TX AND
INTO EASTERN NM...ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
HEALTHY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD TURN
STRONG TO SEVERE...WILL BE SETTING UP INTO TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...NAMELY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
52
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
BREEZIER PATTERN NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ANOTHER MOISTURE INTRUSION
WILL IMPACT NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY. A MORE POTENT MOISTURE
INTRUSION WILL BE POSSIBLE...FAVORING THE EASTERN HALF BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS ARE A MOSAIC DUE TO GREENUP
CONSIDERATIONS. DUE TO THE LACK OF A WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
WEATHER EVENT...WATCHES/WARNINGS ARE NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 7
DAYS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...GENERALLY LIGHTER VARIETY WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN TIER TODAY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL GENERALLY BE MODERATE TO
GOOD MOST AREAS TONIGHT.
UPTICK IN THE WIND WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AS A PACIFIC CLOSED LOW
EDGES CLOSER TO THE STATE. DRIER AIR FOUND IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA AND BEGIN THE
DRYING PROCESS. A FEW LEFT OVER SHOWERS/STORMS COULD BE FOUND ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH. CURRENT GRIDS SHOW SOME STRONG WIND/LOW RH AND VARIED
HAINES 4 TO 6 VALUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MAIN
THREAT APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND BETWEEN
LAS VEGAS TO SANTA ROSA. DUE TO LESS ORGANIZATION AND VARIED FUEL
CONCERNS WILL NOT ISSUE A WATCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ALSO APPEAR TO BE
NEAR NORMAL TO EVEN BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN TIER.
VENTILATION WILL BE EXCELLENT.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND A CLOSE LOW MOVING OVER THE NW HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND PROVIDE SOME MODERATE WETTING RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE NW THIRD TO HALF. SOME MODERATE DRY SLOTTING WILL
IMPACT FAR SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS WITH CONTINUED BREEZINESS DUE TO
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AND
HAINES VALUES WILL BE LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. CAN SEE
SOME STRONG WIND/LOW RH ALIGNMENT ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST AREAS DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...WONT
ISSUE A WATCH FOR THIS SITUATION.
THE PACIFIC LOW WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OUT OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND
PROVIDE A REMAINING COOLER TREND. SOME SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS
THE NORTH BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHTER. SOME WEST/NORTHWEST BREEZES
ARE ANTICIPATED BUT NOT NEARLY AS STRONG COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. ALL THE
MODELS SEEM TO BE SHOWING THIS TREND.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN ALIGNMENT FOR A DRIER AND WARMER EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WEST COAST. BASED ON
THE LOW POSITION...EXPECTING A MORE PRONOUNCED DRYLINE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND SLOSH BACK AND FORTH DUE TO THE
TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS. GFS/ECMWF MODELS BOTH PAINT THE FIRST
DRYLINE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TYPICALLY UNDER THESE SCENARIOS...A
CONCENTRATED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS AND PUSHES THE DRYLINE
FURTHER WEST THAN ANTICIPATED. WILL BE MONITORING THAT.
BOTTOMLINE...MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY AND WARMER TEMPS WOULD BE FOUND
WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH HIGHER RH AND MORE PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL EAST OF THE VALLEY. BREEZINESS IS TYPICALLY FOUND ALONG
THE DRYLINE PASSAGE.
50
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
348 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015
MAIN HIGHLIGHT IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD IS THE ONGOING FROST
ADVISORY. CLOUDS VARYING BETWEEN PARTLY CLOUDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE RESIDING IN THE
NORTHWEST WITH MID 30S WHICH IS LIKELY RESULTING IN AREAS OF
FROST. WILL LET THE ADVISORY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT
UPDATE CYCLE. WILL STILL MENTION AN ISOLATED SHOWER THROUGH 12Z
IN THE EAST CENTRAL ZONES AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRANSITIONS INTO
THIS AREA. THE HRRR AND NMM WEST STILL SHOW A THREAT FOR THIS.
FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...MAIN HIGHLIGHT WILL BE
INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION/RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE INTO IDAHO. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM
INTO NORTH DAKOTA...A CONSOLIDATED SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A COUPLE
OF WEAK SHORTWAVES SHIFTING THROUGH GENERATING MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
EXPECTING A DRY DAY TODAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES PEELING OFF THE UPPER
LOW MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THE AFOREMENTIONED
DEFORMATION ZONE SLIDES INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY. WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE/POOLING OF MOISTURE
IN PLACE...INCREASED VERTICAL MOTION OVER THIS AREA PER 850-300MB
OMEGA FIELD/DIFFERENTIAL POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. VERTICAL MOTION WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED
BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90KT/300MB JET STREAK EXTENDING
FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN AND NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA. THE RESULT WILL BE FOR SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWEST AND
CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXTENDING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN INVOLVES DEEP STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY LIFTING
FROM 4 CORNERS REGION SATURDAY MORNING TO SOUTH DAKOTA BY 00Z
MONDAY. 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE SHIFTED FARTHER NORTH WITH
SYSTEM WITH PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ND NOW LOOKING AT POSSIBLE
ACCUMULATING SNOW...MAINLY ON SUNDAY. NAM REMAINS A BIT OF AN
OUTLIER...NOT AS FAR NORTH WITH QPF...THOUGH GFS/NAM/SREF ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT. GFS DEPICTS 850MB TEMPS AROUND -2C FROM
SOUTHWEST THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL ND BY 18Z SUNDAY COINCIDENT WITH
BROAD AREA OF STRONG 700MB FRONTOGENESIS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. WPC
WINTER WEATHER DESK DEPICTS AREA OF 6 INCHES PLUS ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHWEST FOR DAY 3 /SUNDAY/ WITH THE MAIN BULLSEYE FOR HEAVIEST
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SURFACE TEMPS
NEAR/ABOVE FREEZING MAY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS. NO HEADLINES PLANNED
AT THIS TIME THOUGH THEY MAY BE NEEDED IF MODELS MAINTAIN
CONSISTENCY WITH FUTURE RUNS. FOR NOW WILL ISSUE SPS TO HIGHLIGHT
POTENTIAL STORM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015
LOW VFR TO POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED IN KJMS THROUGH 15Z
FRIDAY. THE REST OF THE TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CIGS WITH
SCT TO BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT /7 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-031>036-040>044.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JNS
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
309 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND THEN STALL NEAR LAKE ERIE
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN AREA OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING. ANOTHER WARM SUMMER LIKE
DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA. A COUPLE OF RECORD HIGHS WILL BE
CHALLENGED OR BROKEN TODAY. 850 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE JUST A
TAD COOLER THAN THURSDAY. BUT GIVEN A WARMER START EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS VALUES INLAND AREAS. THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT TO KEEP THE LAKE BREEZE
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE TODAY SO PLACES LIKE KBKL AND KERI
SHOULD BE A HANDFUL OF DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY ARE NOT AS HIGH AS PROGGED BY THE GUIDANCE BUT
SHOULD COME UP SOME TODAY. REALLY NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
TODAY BUT SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE COULD KICK OFF
SOME SHOWERS OR STORMS OVER FAR NW OHIO. A FEW STORMS COULD ALSO FIRE
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY EAST OF KCLE LATER TODAY. SOME OF
NEWER GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR PICK UP ON THAT
SCENARIO. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ALREADY HAD A MENTION SO WILL
STICK WITH IT FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO
INCH TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THIS
HAPPENS PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
VERY LITTLE SHEAR AND UPPER SUPPORT EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND SO
NO ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERED IN NATURE. RIGHT NOW IT
APPEARS BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL PROBABLY NOT COME
TILL LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TILL THEN WILL NEED MAINLY LIKELY
POPS IN NW OHIO WITH NO MORE THAN CHANCE OF SCATTERED WORDING
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. IT`S STILL TOUGH TO TELL IF THE
FRONT WILL MAKE IT ACROSS THE LAKE BEFORE IT STALLS ON SUNDAY. THE
NEW GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW AN AREA OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHERN LAKES ON MONDAY CAUSING THE FRONT TO LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH. AS THIS HAPPENS THE LOCAL AREA COULD SEE A 12 TO 18 HOUR
PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP MENTIONED
ABOVE WILL COME AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FINALLY APPROACHES LATE
IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. IT HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY SO FAR THIS MONTH
BUT THINK MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF
PRECIP THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A GOOD 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS TRACK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE EASTERN
LAKES TUESDAY...THEN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON WEDNESDAY. BEHIND
THE FRONT MUCH COLDER AIR SPILLS OVER THE AREA. GFS CONTINUES TO BE
MUCH COLDER THAN THE LATEST ECMWF. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING THE GFS
850 MB TEMPERATURES PLUNGE TO -4C WHILE THE ECMWF ONLY TO +4C. FOR
NOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIT THE DIFFERENCE ON THE TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. TSRA MAY
CREEP INTO NW OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES UP AROUND 1500
J/KG. BUT WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER AREA STILL HAVE
DOUBTS SO FOR TAFS JUST WENT WITH VCTS NW OHIO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AS A FRONT APPROACHES LATE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. NON VFR AS WELL ON MONDAY WITH THE FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTH FLOW OVER THE LAKE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
331 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER RATHER COMPLICATED SITUATION WITH REGARDS TO
CONVECTION AND ATTENDANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT... AS WELL AS
ADDITIONAL HEAVY... POSSIBLY FLOODING RAINFALL. WILL ALSO HAVE
SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEAL WITH FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING.
MANY OF THE MODELS DEPICT MORNING CONVECTION DEVELOPING AS LIFT
BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AHEAD OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER
THE MODELS DIFFER IN THEIR PLACEMENT OF THIS CONVECTION THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. THEY ALSO DIFFER IN HOW TO HANDLE RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. MAIN BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING SHOULD RESIDE TO OUR SOUTH... BUT WOULD EXPECT IT TO TRY
TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASING
LATER THIS MORNING.
LATEST NAM/GFS DEPICT BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK TO NEAR I-40 CORRIDOR
BY AFTN. FOLLOWING THIS SCENARIO... WHICH ALSO KEEPS MUCH OF THE
MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...WOULD AID IN
REINFORCING SURFACE BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF
THE I-40 CORRIDOR BY THIS AFTN... ALTHOUGH OTHER BOUNDARIES WILL
LIKELY BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD LIMIT
INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA... SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WOULD REMAIN
IN THE MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE AFTN INTO THE EVENING.
THIS WILL BE THE MORE LIKELY AREA FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT STORMS...
INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL... DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES THIS
AFTN AND EVENING.
LATEST FEW RUNS OF HRRR GIVE A DIFFERENT SCENARIO THIS MORNING.
THIS MODEL HAS MORE OF A COMPLEX OF STORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY
DURING THE DAY. THIS WOULD LIKELY BE THE MAIN SHOW FOR THE DAY AND
ANY ATTENDANT SEVERE WOULD LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COMPLEX
OF STORMS... MUCH LIKE WHAT OCCURRED ON THURSDAY. EITHER SCENARIO
WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA SOUTH INTO NORTH
TEXAS WOULD BE THE FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
STORMS.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT. WE THEN SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER DAY OF SEVERE
WEATHER ON SATURDAY. MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING OUT
INTO THE PLAINS BY SAT AFTN AND EVENING. MODELS ARE AGAIN SHOWING
SOME MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE AREA AS LIFT BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE AREA AHEAD OF
MAIN TROUGH. THINK THAT THIS SHOULD PROGRESS EAST QUICK ENOUGH
THAT ATMOSPHERE SHOULD RECOVER/DESTABILIZE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
DRYLINE BY SAT AFTN ACROSS THE EASTERN OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. THE COMBINATION OF EXPECTED
INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE WIND FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE AREAS SAT AFTN
CAPABLE OF TORNADOES/VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. THESE STORMS
WILL THEN MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
PERHAPS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TOWARD THE I-35 CORRIDOR DURING THE
EVENING HOURS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH AND EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. AS THIS OCCURS... A COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH INTO THE
AREA AND WILL AGAIN BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS... SOME SEVERE
SUNDAY AFTN MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-44.
ALL THROUGH THIS TIME WILL BE ADDING TO THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN THROUGH MOTHER`S DAY
WEEKEND. WILL CONT WITH THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH THAT GOES THROUGH
THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
SHOULD SEE A DAY OR TWO OF MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER TO BEGIN NEXT
WEEK BEFORE MOISTURE BEGINS TO PULL BACK NORTH AND PRECIP CHANCES
RETURN TO THE AREA. RIGHT NOW ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBILITIES LOOK LOW AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK REMAIN MILD... BUT MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL
LINGER.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 78 63 77 63 / 60 70 70 40
HOBART OK 77 63 78 57 / 70 40 60 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 80 66 80 63 / 70 40 60 30
GAGE OK 76 59 78 51 / 50 50 60 20
PONCA CITY OK 79 63 77 63 / 50 70 70 50
DURANT OK 81 67 79 66 / 40 60 60 70
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR OKZ006>008-011>013-
015>048-050>052.
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
84/30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
110 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT AS SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTHWARD
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ANA IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST OFFSHORE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND THEN MOVE GRADUALLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN
EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY APPROACH THE AREA BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
0515 UTC UPDATE...WINDS WERE UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE LATEST NAM AND
ADJMAV GUIDANCE. SKY COVER WAS ADJUSTED PER SATELLITE IMAGERY. MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
1015 PM UPDATE...SKIES CLEARING AS ANTICIPATED DUE TO UPPER LEVEL
DRYING...THOUGH IT IS OCCURRING MORE RAPIDLY THAN EXPECTED. REVISED
SKY COVER GRIDS OVERNIGHT...MOST NOTABLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
WHERE IR TEMPS ARE WARMING FASTEST. TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY ON
TRACK...BUT GIVEN THE CLEARER SKIES COOLING MAY ACCELERATE. BLENDED
IN A BIT OF THE RAP TEMPS WHICH SEEMED TO KEEP TEMPS WARMER UNDER
THE CLOUDIER AREAS. STILL EXPECTING PATCHY FOG IN THE MORE FAVORED
AREAS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE...NAMELY MORGANTON/LENOIR AREAS...AND IN
THE LITTLE TENN VALLEY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TONIGHT...THE DEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL (OR
TROPICAL) LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OFF THE SC COAST. OTHER THAN
PERIODS OF THICK CIRRUS OVC...SHUD BE A QUIET NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...PERHAPS A CATEGORY OR TWO WARMER DUE TO
INCREASING CLOUDS.
FRIDAY...THE WX LOOKS ALMOST A CARBON COPY OF THURSDAY...WITH LITTLE
MOVEMENT OF THE LOW NEAR THE SC COAST. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
DEVELOPMENT THE LOW MAY ACQUIRE...THERE MAY BE MORE CLOUD COVER AND
A LITTLE MORE BREEZINESS. BUT OTHERWISE...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
GARDEN VARIETY SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE NC MTNS...WITH TEMPS BACK INTO
THE 70S TO LWR 80S...AND LWR-MID 80S IN THE PIEDMONT. CANNOT RULE
OUT ONE OR TWO BANDS OF LIGHT SHWRS EMANATING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL
LOW...PIVOTING EAST TO WEST ACRS THE CHARLOTTE AREA. BUT STILL ONLY
A SLGT CHC POP SEEMS WARRANTED THERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE DEVELOPING SUB TROPICAL LOW OFF THE
SERN COAST. THE LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY SAT THEN MOVES SLOWLY
TO THE SC COAST SUN. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY GRADUALLY INCREASE
THRU THE PERIOD AS MOISTURE AND SPOKES OF VORTICITY SPIN AROUND THE
LOW AND ACROSS THE CWFA. THAT SAID...THE BEST CHC FOR PRECIP BOTH
DAYS REMAINS THE MTNS WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW DEVELOP. CHC INCREASES OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS ON SUN AS THE MID
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WEAKENS ALLOWING AN INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY. THE PRECIP CHC STILL REMAINS MAINLY DIURNAL...
ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-77 WHERE INFLUENCES FROM THE LOW ARE WEAKER.
ISOLATED SHRA COULD LINGER THRU THE NITE EAST OF I-77. HIGHS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...BUT HIGHER ACROSS THE WEST. LOWS WILL BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...GUIDANCE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE
COASTAL LOW MOVES NE ACROSS THE NC COAST MON AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN OFF SHORE TUE AS THE COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHC OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH DAYS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BOTH
DAYS. THE COLD STALLS SOUTH OF THE AREA WED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO A COLD AIR DAMMING CONFIGURATION...BUT FCST REMAINS DRY. TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. MOISTURE AND
PRECIP THEN RETURNS ACROSS THE AREA THE AS SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE DAMMING HIGH. LOWS WILL COOL...BUT REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WHILE HIGHS FALL TO NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. GUIDANCE TRIES TO BRING A MOISTURE BAND ASSOCIATED
WITH SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM ANA TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY
EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ITS ARRIVAL AND THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE SURVIVING. WITH THAT IN MIND...THE TAF WILL BE
PRECIPITATION FREE. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE AS ANA SLOWLY MOVES
TOWARD THE SC COAST.
ELSEWHERE...MODEL GUIDANCE IS LEANING TOWARD AN MVFR DAYBREAK FOG
RESTRICTION AT KAVL...AND THIS WILL BE FEATURED IN THE TAF. MOISTURE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS MAY PERMIT A LOW VFR CIG TO FORM AT KAVL DURING
DAYTIME HEATING AND LIFT...AND A THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FOOTHILL SITES WILL BE IN DRY AIR BETWEEN TROPICAL SYSTEM
ANA AND THE MOUNTAINS...AND THEREFORE VFR. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE
AT FOOTHILLS SITES...AND NNW AT KAVL.
OUTLOOK...A MOIST AIR MASS WITH POSSIBLE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT ALONG
THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL SUPPORT DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS...CANT RULE OUT LIGHT SHRA AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND SOUTHEAST
COASTAL LOW WITH LOW LEVEL CIGS ALSO A POSSIBILITY THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. A COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE
WEST ON MONDAY...ARRIVING ON TUESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY
PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
05-11Z 11-17Z 17-23Z 23-00Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 83% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...ARK/JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JAT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
433 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR TODAY WILL BE THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR TOWARDS THE HILL
COUNTRY...EDWARDS PLATEAU AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION IS MEDIUM GIVEN WIDE ASSORTMENT OF HI-RES GUIDANCE.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FOR TODAY...THE WELL ADVERTISED CLOSED H5 LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA
WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND ALONG WITH EMBEDDED
IMPULSES STREAMING OUT OF NORTH MEXICO WILL AID IN A H5-H3 WIND
BELT INCREASE TOWARDS 50 TO 70KT RESPECTIVELY. WHILE THE BEST
FORCING AND DRYLINE BULGE WILL BE NORTH OF THE REGION...MODEST
INSTABILITY NEARING 3000 J/KG WITH A WEAK CAP AND IMPRESSIVE
VERTICAL TOTALS /29-31C/ SHOULD AT LEAST SUPPORT SOME ROBUST
UPDRAFTS. LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS
TO 60 MPH WILL BE HAZARDS OF THESE STORMS. THE HRRR HAS BEEN
INCONSISTENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ALONG WITH THE ARW/NMM
THAT WERE ALSO HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING STORMS YESTERDAY AT
THIS TIME. HAVE NOT PLACED MUCH STOCK IN THE OVER-DONE ARW/NMM
WITH SLIGHT WEIGHT TOWARDS HRRR. YET...EVEN IT DOES NOT READILY
SEEM TO FIT ENVIRONMENT CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR THIS AFTERNOON. FEEL
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND LONGER ALONG I-35
AND EAST WITH MORE CLEARING WITH GROWING AND STRONGER
DESTABILIZATION OUT WEST. GFS DOES PROG A WEAK S/WV TO SHIFT OVER
THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT SEE IT CREATING
STRATIFORM PRECIP AS THE HRRR SUGGESTS. GIVEN GFS/NAM SOUNDING
PROFILES SUPPORTING MORE OF A CONVECTIVE MODE...FEEL A MULTI-CELL
OR UPGROWTH INTO SOME LINEAR LINE SEGMENT COULD BE POSSIBLE OUT
WEST AND SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AND THEN NORTH OF
THE REGION. SPC SSEO AND NCAR ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO INCONSISTENT
AMONG THE MEMBERS. THE OVERALL SIGNAL DEPICTS INITIAL DEVELOPMENT
OUT WEST LATE AFTERNOON WITH CONSOLIDATION ACTUALLY NEAR THE 35
CORRIDOR AND NEAR SAN ANTONIO. WHILE POSSIBLE...FEEL MORE
SUPPORTIVE AREA WILL BE NORTH AND WEST. SOME ADDITIONAL TSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH CELLS
POSSIBLY CONTINUING NE OUT OF MEXICO BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD
DECREASE.
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE DRYLINE WILL HAVE SHIFTED FARTHER EAST
INTO THE REGION AND INCREASE STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL
FARTHER EAST THAN TODAY. A DECREASE IN STORM POTENTIAL WILL ALSO
OCCUR BEHIND THE DRYLINE FOR FAR WESTERN AREAS. NEAR 2000-2500
J/KG CAPE VALUES AND 45-50 KT 0-6KM SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS THAT COULD AGAIN CONTAIN HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.
0-3KM HELICITY VALUES PER GFS MAY APPROACH 200-250 M2/S2 AND WITH
0-1KM SRH NEAR 150 MS/S2...STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD ROTATE AND
A TORNADO CAN NOT BE FULLY RULED OUT. AGAIN...THE WINDOW FOR
STRONGEST STORMS WILL LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING FOR AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF US HIGHWAY 83. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL MORPH FROM
STRONGER CONVECTION TOWARDS MORE STRATIFORM THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING NEAR THE HILL COUNTRY AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE OF
CONCERN. SEE LONG TERM BELOW FOR CONTINUED MENTION OF THIS IMPACT
PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
QUITE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ALL
OF NEXT WEEK WITH LIKELY MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS. BOTH GFS/EC MODELS AGREE
WIDESPREAD TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS TO 6-7"+ COULD BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
ELEVATED RIVER/CREEKS AND FLASH FLOODING COULD OCCUR IF CERTAIN
RAIN CLUSTERS DEVELOP JUST RIGHT.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE AREA REMAINS IN DEEP SW FLOW
ALOFT AS ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH SPOKE PIVOTS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS...ACTING TO ENHANCE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. PWATS REMAIN HIGH
/1.5-1.7"/ AND WILL SUPPORT LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS THROUGH THE
DAY AND EVENING. HEAVIEST RAINFALL COULD OCCUR ACROSS HILL COUNTRY
AND POINTS NORTH TO NE AND COULD INCLUDE AUSTIN METRO. SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE EAST OF I-35 BUT
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN AFTERNOON
DEVELOPMENT.
A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS STILL EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH TOWARDS THE
REGION BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BUT THIS WILL ONLY SERVE AS ANOTHER
FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT AS SW FLOW AND TROUGHING
CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY FOR ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCHES POSSIBLY BEING NEEDED. BY
TUESDAY...THE FIRST LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE GREAT PLAINS
BUT THE ACTIVE SOUTHERN JET STREAM BRANCH CONTINUES AND IS EVEN
REPLACED BY ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH ON THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY AND
YET ANOTHER BY LATE NEXT WEEK. PLEASE STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE
LATEST THROUGH THE WEEK AS QUICKLY ACCUMULATING RAINFALL TOTALS
COULD LEAD TO FLOODING IMPACTS. /ALLEN/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 85 72 86 73 83 / 40 30 40 30 60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 85 73 87 73 84 / 40 30 40 30 60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 85 71 87 73 84 / 30 30 40 20 50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 83 70 83 70 80 / 50 30 50 50 70
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 91 72 92 72 88 / 30 40 20 20 40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 83 72 84 72 82 / 40 30 50 30 70
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 88 71 88 73 86 / 30 40 40 20 50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 86 72 87 73 83 / 30 30 40 20 50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 86 75 86 75 85 / 30 30 30 20 40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 86 72 87 73 84 / 30 30 40 20 50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 87 72 88 73 85 / 30 30 30 20 50
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
325 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY INTO
SATURDAY...RESULTING IN CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES TO START THE
WEEKEND. SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD TOWARD
THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS LATER IN THE WEEKEND BEFORE PASSING
EAST OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA DURING TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...
PERSISTENCE FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
OVERHEAD BEING UNDERCUT TO SOME DEGREE OVER THE WEST VIA LOW LEVEL
WEAKNESS EXTENDING NW FROM ANA OFF THE SE COAST. THIS WILL AGAIN ALLOW
FOR PREDOMINANT EASTERLY FLOW RESULTING IN AN AXIS OF CONVERGENCE
ACROSS THE FAR WEST TODAY AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE IN THE EAST PER DRIER
ONSHORE FLOW. GUIDANCE AGAIN SHOWING DECENT INSTABILITY WESTERN THIRD
THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH SWATH OF HIGHER CAPES LOOKS TO SHIFT WEST OF
THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY AS A CORRIDOR OF SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH OF
ANA SWINGS WESTBOUND. THIS SEEN VIA THE LATEST 85H THETA-E PROGS WHICH
HAVE THE AXIS OF HIGHER VALUES JUST TO THE WEST BUT STILL ENOUGH OF A
GRADIENT WESTERN PERIMETER TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED SLOW MOVING
CONVECTION. MOST MODELS IN LINE WITH AT LEAST A SHOTGUN TYPE PATTERN OF
SHRA/TSRA WITH ENSEMBLES SUPPORTING THE BEST COVERAGE OVER SE WEST VA
AS WELL AS THE NW NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS WHERE AIDED BY DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING TO SOME DEGREE. MORE ISOLATED NATURE POP UP SHRA POSSIBLE
EAST TO THE BLUE RIDGE BUT APPEARS MOST COVERAGE FROM THE WESTERN
NEW RIVER VALLEY AND POINTS WEST THIS AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE
RESIDUAL DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS. THUS BUMPED UP POPS TO HIGHER
CHANCE IN SPOTS OVER THE FAR WEST WHILE LEAVING AREAS EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE DRY GIVEN DEEPER MOISTURE WITH ANA STILL WELL SOUTH.
OTRW SIMILAR TEMPS TO THOSE SEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
HIGHS UPPER 70S- LOW 80S WITH MORE SUN EAST AND PC WEST AFTER
EARLY FOG/LOW CLOUDS.
ANY SHRA SHOULD FADE BY SUNSET GIVEN LACK OF SUPPORT AND BETTER
SUBSIDENCE SPILLING WESTWARD OVERNIGHT. SOME MODELS DO SHOW A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN PWATS OVER THE SE LATE AS PERHAPS A LEADING BAND OF SHRA
STARTS TO EJECT FARTHER NW FROM ANA. HOWEVER GIVEN DRY AIR THINKING
ONLY SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS SE THIRD LATE WITH PC TO MOSTLY CLEAR ELSW
OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPS AGAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S WITH SOME
DROPOFF IN DEWPOINTS IN ALL BUT THE SE WHERE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE
PICKING UP LATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT FRIDAY...
THERE ARE TO KEY PLAYERS IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST: THE SLOWLY
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM/UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA. (SEE THE LATEST ADVISORY FROM NHC).
ON THE 200 AM EDT ADVISORY...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM
ANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 77.7 WEST.
THE STORM WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH (4 KM/H).
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR
45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
WITHOUT ANY TRACK CHANGES...ANA IS EXPECTED TO LANDFALL INTO THE
CAROLINAS POSSIBLY AS A TROPICAL STORM AROUND LATER SUN INTO MON.
THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE CLOSEST TO THE 03Z NHC ADVISORY WITH
THE 00Z NAM FARTHEST NORTH OF THE NHC TRACK. INITIAL...OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL BE LOCATED A SUBSIDENCE ZONE WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY
BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND ANA TO OUR EAST.
FOR THIS WEEKEND ANTICIPATE TWO MAIN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION...
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WHERE INSOLATION WILL BE GREATER ALLOWING FOR BETTER
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IN THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...WITH SOME DYNAMIC
FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT IN THE WEST...AND BANDS OF
RAIN/SHOWERS IN THE EAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM. WILL HOLD ONTO SOME ISOLATED POPS IN BETWEEN THE
TWO PRIMARY AREAS...ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE AND INTO THE SHENANDOAH
VALLEY...POSSIBLY INDUCED BY OUTER SPIRALING BANDS OF THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM.
IN GENERAL...HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT THURSDAY...
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME BONAFIDE
MOVEMENT AND BREAK DOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE
SLOWLY EASTWARD PROGRESSING WESTERN/CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH AND THE
TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST. THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
SHOULD BEGIN AN ACCELERATED NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OFF THE VA COAST
AS THE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
HOWEVER...INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHEAR
OUT...WITH THE MAIN DYNAMICS MOVING MORE INTO OH AND THE NORTHEAST
U.S. MONDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME LINGERING SUBSIDENCE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM...WHICH MAKES IT
QUESTIONABLE AS TO HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL SPREAD EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND TO WHAT LEVEL OF INTENSITY. ALL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
BEST THREAT FOR CONVECTION...AND ANY THREAT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE...SHOULD BE MOSTLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MONDAY.
BY TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE REGION AND THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE WELL OFF THE COAST. A DRIER AIR MASS
SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA...BUT
PERHAPS NOT AS QUICKLY AS THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST. WILL HOLD ONTO
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF INTO
TUE AFTERNOON...THEN DRY OUT ALL AREAS FOR WED. BY THU...A FAMILIAR
WEDGE PATTERN BEGINS TO SETUP WITH POTENTIAL OVERRUNNING AS A
DISTURBANCE RIDES AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION UNTIL THU.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND FROM ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY TO NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY WED. THE BIGGEST TEMPERATURE CHANGE SHOULD
BE IN THE MORNING LOWS WITH DRIER AIR AND MORE EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM EDT FRIDAY...
APPEARS MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE NIGHT OR PRE-
DAWN FOG/STRATO-CU TO PREVAIL INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO HELP TEMPS DROP OFF CLOSER TO CURRENT
DEWPOINTS ESPCLY IN THE VALLEYS AND OUT EAST WHERE ALREADY SEEING
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT TAKE SHAPE. THUS WILL BEEF UP COVERAGE TO
INCLUDE A TEMPO OF MORE IFR FOG AROUND KLWB AND PERHAPS KBCB/KLYH.
COULD EVEN BE A BIT OF FOG AROUND KROA RIGHT BEFORE DAYBREAK BUT
MOSTLY BRIEF AND HIGH END MVFR AT WORSE.
FOR FRIDAY...EXPECT SCT/BKN CIRRUS/CS THANKS TO THE LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. HEATING WILL AGAIN LEAD TO MORE CU
DEVELOPMENT ESPCLY MOUNTAINS WHERE A PERIOD OF VFR CIGS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY WEST OF KBCB. HOWEVER LESS INSTABILITY FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEREFORE EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE MORE
WIDELY SCATTERED...MAINLY ALONG THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE NEW
RIVER VALLEY INTO THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE AND NC MTNS. SINCE LATEST
GUIDANCE AGAIN PEGS THE KLWB VICINITY FOR BEST SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES...ADDED IN A VCTS MENTION THERE PER LATEST HRRR OUTPUT.
OTHERWISE WILL LEAVE OUT ANY CONVECTION MENTION AND KEEP THINGS
VFR FRIDAY AFTERNOON UNDER EASTERLY FLOW.
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM KLWB TO KBLF...AND PERHAPS AROUND
KDAN BY SATURDAY. OTHERWISE TREND FOR THE AXIS OF BEST COVERAGE
WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY WEST OF THE REGION. THUS EXPECTING MAINLY
VFR EXCEPT FOR SOME LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PATCHY LIGHT FOG
AS WELL AS PATCHY MVFR CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY REMAINS LOW.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING A DECENT AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY IN
THEIR SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE ROUTE OF NEWLY FORMED SUBTROPICAL
STORM ANA. HOWEVER THE LATEST FORECAST FROM NHC HAS THE SYSTEM
TRACKING INLAND OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY AND WELL TO THE
EAST OF THE REGION BY EARLY TUESDAY. ACCORDINGLY...THE TIMING AND
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BE
IMPACTED BY THE POSITION OF ANA AS WELL. A CONSENSUS FORECAST
PLACES INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND ACROSS THE EAST
WITH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH ANA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
COMBINATION LIKELY TO BRING PERIODS OF MVFR ON MONDAY WITH OVERALL
VFR OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. EXODUS
OF BOTH SYSTEMS LATE MONDAY NIGHT MAY BRING ENOUGH DRYING FOR A
RETURN TO OVERALL VFR DURING TUESDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...JH/NF/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
116 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...SUPPORTING EARLY JUNE LIKE TEMPERATURES. A SLOW MOVING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARD THE COAST
OF THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE AREA LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1020 PM EDT THURSDAY...
RADAR IS CLEAR OF SHOWERS AND EXPECT THIS THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
FOG STILL LOOKS PATCHY AT TIMES LATE IN THE RIVER VALLEYS
THROUGHOUT THE CWA. GOING TO SEE A MIXTURE OF STARS AND
CLOUDS...WITH MORE CIRRUS AND SOME MID CLOUDS IN THE WESTERN
CWA...WITH LESS INTO THE PIEDMONT. KEPT FORECAST LOWS CLOSE TO THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST...THOUGH A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER GIVEN LACK OF
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT/CALM WIND. STILL FOR EARLY MAY ITS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES MILDER THAN WHAT WE NORMALLY SHOULD HAVE.
PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION FROM EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL DRIFT A LITTLE
CLOSER TO LAND. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY
EVEN MORE SPOTTY THAN TODAY...WITH LITTLE TO NO THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOW CLOSER TO OUR AREA...MAY
SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE RADIATE INLAND TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHSIDE AND THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S
MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE LOW 80S FURTHER EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...
FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD...THE CWA WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN A SLOWLY
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM/UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE
TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM TO OUR EAST ACROSS EASTERN NC THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THUS...MUCH OF THE CWA WILL BE IN A SUBSIDENCE
ZONE WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON TAKING
TRACK OF TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM NNW TO NEAR RDU MONDAY
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO TWO AREAS...DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WESTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE
INSOLATION WILL BE GREATER ALLOWING FOR BETTER DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
IN THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...SOME DYNAMIC FORCING WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST... AND ALSO POTENTIALLY INFLUENCED BY ANY
FAR OUTER BANDS SPIRALING AROUND THE TROPICAL SYSTEM. THIS WOULD BE
THE ONLY AREA I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE ANY THUNDER AT THIS POINT. THE
FAR EASTERN AREAS...GENERALLY EAST OF LYH-DAN...COULD SEE LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS SPIRALING AROUND THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM.
THERE IS NO SOLID EVIDENCE AT THIS POINT THAT ANY CORE TROPICAL
RAINFALL WOULD SPREAD INTO OUR CWA AT ANY POINT. ANY ACTIVITY IN THE
EAST WILL BE WITHIN A STABLE MARINE LAYER AND LIKELY HAVE LITTLE TO
NO THUNDER AS EVIDENCED BY THE NEAR ZERO INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS
SECTION ON ALL MODEL PROGS. IN BETWEEN...ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE AND
INTO THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY...EXPECT LITTLE PRECIPITATION...BUT
CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER INDUCED BY OUTER
SPIRALING BANDS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL EAST TO
ABOVE NORMAL WEST. INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER EAST MAY
ALLOW A TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD...BUT MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S THROUGHOUT THIS
REGION DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT THURSDAY...
FINALLY...DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME BONAFIDE
MOVEMENT AND BREAK DOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE
SLOWLY EASTWARD PROGRESSING WESTERN/CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH AND THE
TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST. THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
SHOULD BEGIN AN ACCELERATED NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OFF THE VA COAST
AS THE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
HOWEVER...INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHEAR
OUT...WITH THE MAIN DYNAMICS MOVING MORE INTO OH AND THE NORTHEAST
U.S. MONDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME LINGERING SUBSIDENCE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM...WHICH MAKES IT
QUESTIONABLE AS TO HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL SPREAD EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND TO WHAT LEVEL OF INTENSITY. ALL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
BEST THREAT FOR CONVECTION...AND ANY THREAT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE...SHOULD BE MOSTLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MONDAY.
BY TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE REGION AND THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE WELL OFF THE COAST. A DRIER AIR MASS
SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA...BUT
PERHAPS NOT AS QUICKLY AS THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST. WILL HOLD ONTO
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF INTO
TUE AFTERNOON...THEN DRY OUT ALL AREAS FOR WED. BY THU...A FAMILIAR
WEDGE PATTERN BEGINS TO SETUP WITH POTENTIAL OVERRUNNING AS A
DISTURBANCE RIDES AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION UNTIL THU.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND FROM ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY TO NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY WED. THE BIGGEST TEMPERATURE CHANGE SHOULD
BE IN THE MORNING LOWS WITH DRIER AIR AND MORE EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM EDT FRIDAY...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE NIGHT OR PRE-DAWN
FOG INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO HELP
TEMPS DROP OFF CLOSER TO CURRENT DEWPOINTS ESPCLY IN THE VALLEYS
AND OUT EAST WHERE ALREADY SEEING SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT TAKE SHAPE.
THUS WILL BEEF UP COVERAGE TO INCLUDE A TEMPO OF MORE IFR FOG
AROUND KLWB AND PERHAPS KBCB/KLYH. COULD EVEN BE A BIT OF FOG
AROUND KROA RIGHT BEFORE DAYBREAK BUT MOSTLY BRIEF AND HIGH END
MVFR AT WORSE.
FOR FRIDAY...EXPECT SCT/BKN CIRRUS/CS THANKS TO THE LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. HEATING WILL AGAIN LEAD TO MORE CU
DEVELOPMENT ESPCLY MOUNTAINS WHERE A PERIOD OF VFR CIGS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY WEST OF KBCB. HOWEVER LESS INSTABILITY FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEREFORE EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE MORE
WIDELY SCATTERED...MAINLY ALONG THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE NEW
RIVER VALLEY INTO THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE AND NC MTNS. SINCE LATEST
GUIDANCE AGAIN PEGS THE KLWB VICINITY FOR BEST SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES...ADDED IN A VCTS MENTION THERE PER LATEST HRRR OUTPUT.
OTHERWISE WILL LEAVE OUT ANY CONVECTION MENTION AND KEEP THINGS
VFR FRIDAY AFTERNOON UNDER EASTERLY FLOW.
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM KLWB TO KBLF...AND PERHAPS AROUND
KDAN BY SATURDAY. OTHERWISE TREND FOR THE AXIS OF BEST COVERAGE
WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY WEST OF THE REGION. THUS EXPECTING MAINLY
VFR EXCEPT FOR SOME LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PATCHY LIGHT FOG
AS WELL AS PATCHY MVFR CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY REMAINS LOW.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING A DECENT AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY IN
THEIR SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE ROUTE OF NEWLY FORMED SUBTROPICAL
STORM ANA. HOWEVER THE LATEST FORECAST FROM NHC HAS THE SYSTEM
TRACKING INLAND OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY AND WELL TO THE
EAST OF THE REGION BY EARLY TUESDAY. ACCORDINGLY...THE TIMING AND
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BE
IMPACTED BY THE POSITION OF ANA AS WELL. A CONSENSUS FORECAST
PLACES INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND ACROSS THE EAST
WITH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH ANA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
COMBINATION LIKELY TO BRING PERIODS OF MVFR ON MONDAY WITH OVERALL
VFR OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. EXODUS
OF BOTH SYSTEMS LATE MONDAY NIGHT MAY BRING ENOUGH DRYING FOR A
RETURN TO OVERALL VFR DURING TUESDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF/WP
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...JH/NF/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
935 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE IT REMAINS
VERY WARM ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WITH MAINLY DRY
WEATHER. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BRING A ROUND OR TWO
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM UPDATE...
***STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE EASTERN MA COAST
WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY***
BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHING S ALONG THE NE MA COAST THIS MORNING AND
HAS MOVED THROUGH BOS. TEMPS FALLING SHARPLY INTO THE 50S BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH BVY DOWN TO 54. HRRR HAS FRONT REACHING ORH-PVD
16-17Z AND MAY SEE TEMPS SPIKE INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS PORTIONS
OF RI AND INTERIOR SE MA BEFORE THE FROPA AND FALLING TEMPS
THROUGH THE 60S AND EVEN INTO THE 50S IN SOME LOCALES IN E MA BY
LATE AFTERNOON. DECENT PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL YIELD
A BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH ACROSS
NORTHEAST MA.
FINALLY...FURTHER BACK INTO THE INTERIOR ACROSS WESTERN MA/NORTHERN
CT IT WILL BE A VERY WARM DAY. THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL NOT
COME THROUGH UNTIL THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND IN A WEAKENED
FORM. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S.
AREAS OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG LINGERING ACROSS THE S COASTAL
WATERS MAY FILL BACK IN ACROSS SOME OF THE S COAST BEACHES DURING
THE AFTERNOON.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL
BE DRY IN A GIVEN LOCATION. HOWEVER...BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
COMBINED WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS WESTERN MA/NORTHERN
CT. HRRR INDICATING A FEW SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHEST
RISK FOR THIS IS ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES...WHERE
THE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL LOSE ITS PUNCH AS IT MOVES INTO WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG. SOME OF THE FOG MAY
END UP LOCALLY DENSE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHERE
THERE MAY BE SOME DRIZZLE. LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION. LOW TEMPS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
SATURDAY...
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY ON SATURDAY IS HOW QUICKLY STRATUS AND FOG WILL
DISSIPATE...AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SLOWLY
WASH OUT. HOWEVER..GIVEN LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF LOW CLOUDS/FOG LASTED A BIT LONGER THEN THE MODELS
SUGGEST. STILL SHOULD SEE PARTIAL SUNSHINE EMERGE FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION BY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES MAY LINGER
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COAST.
HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY ARE TRICKY AND WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF. RIGHT NOW WE WILL STICK WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 70S...BUT PROBABLY ONLY 65 TO 70 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
ITS POSSIBLE A FEW LOCATIONS IN OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES REACH
80...IF CLOUDS BREAK UP EARLY ENOUGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
* NIGHTTIME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG S AND SE COASTAL AREAS
* REMNANTS OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA PASS S OF REGION AS COLD
FRONT SWEEPS IN AROUND TUESDAY
* COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES ON THIS MORNING/S PACKAGE.
NHC HAS UPGRADED LOW PRES OFF THE SE U.S. COAST...CLASSIFYING IT
AS SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE THAT THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEMS MAY AFFECT SOUTH COASTAL
AREAS DURING TUESDAY...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH LOW PRES AND
COLD FRONT E WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE SYSTEM/S EFFECTS
OFFSHORE. HAVE MENTIONED POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY E-NE WINDS...BRIEF
HEAVY SHOWERS AND HIGHER SEAS POSSIBLE IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK FOR OUR SOUTH COASTAL AREAS AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.
RIDGING CONTINUES INTO MONDAY...SO EXPECT GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WITH PERSISTENT S-SW WINDS IN PLACE...
EXPECT DEWPTS TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL SEE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG S COASTAL AREAS SAT
NIGHT. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECASTED DEWPTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER-
MID 60S...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS
MOST AREAS GENERALLY S OF THE MASS PIKE AGAIN DURING LATE NIGHT
INTO MID MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY.
LEANED TOWARD SLOWER TIMING OF GGEM/ECMWF WHICH SLOWED PROGRESSION
OF THE FRONT A BIT MORE...THOUGH STILL COULD SEE SOME PRECIP MOVE
INTO NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO NOTING SOME
INSTABILITY WORKING IN WITH K INDICES INTO THE LOWER 30S...WHICH
LOOKS TO WORK THROUGH TO NEAR THE MASS PIKE DURING MONDAY.
MENTIONED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WILL BE RATHER WARM ON MOTHER/S DAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER-MID 80S.
RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TIMING OF COLD FRONT OUT OF NY STATE
DURING TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS. WITH
INCREASED PWAT/S /ON ORDER OF 1.75 INCHES/...MAY SEE SOME BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN SOME OF THE CONVECTION THAT LOOKS TO DEVELOP
TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT...BRINGING IN COOLER AIR ON W-NW
WINDS. NOTING H5 S/W MOVES ACROSS DURING WED...BUT LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH AND MOST OF THE ENERGY REMAINS N OF THE REGION SO
SHOULD BE A DRY DAY AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH WORKS IN OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES FOR WED-THU. EXPECT GENERALLY PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS...THOUGH MIGHT BE
A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL ON THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. AREAS OF IFR STRATUS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR...BUT MAY LOWER BACK TO IFR BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON
AS STRATUS LIFTS BACK TO THE N. A PERIOD OF NE WIND GUSTS TO
20-25 KT ACROSS NE MA COAST. IN ADDITION...A FEW BRIEF SPOT
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY AFFECT
WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS AS LOW
STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST. THE FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND COAST WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD GRADUALLY
BURN OFF SOMETIME SAT MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
MODELS MAY BE A LITTLE FAST IN BREAKING UP THE LOW
CLOUDS/STRATUS GIVEN LIGHT ON SHORE FLOW...SO WE HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. ITS ALSO POSSIBLE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
COAST/CAPE/ISLANDS NEVER FULLY SCATTER OUT THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG
PATCHES WITH ONSHORE FLOW.
KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CROSSES
TERMINAL BETWEEN 13 AND 14Z. BRIEF SURGE OF NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. IFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOP TONIGHT.
KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. VFR TODAY WITH A SPOT
SHOWER POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR LOW CLOUDS/FOG
PATCHES DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR. S-SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT AT TIMES MAINLY THROUGH
MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. IFR-LIFR IN LOW
CLOUDS...FOG AND PATCHY DRIZZLE ALONG S/SE SHORELINE
TERMINALS...ENCROACHING INTO THE INTERIOR DURING THE OVERNIGHT
INTO MORNING PERIODS.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY LOW END VFR CONDITIONS...BUT MAY SEE MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCT SHOWERS. LOWEST CONDITIONS SEEN ALONG COASTAL TERMINALS. LOW
CHANCE OF TSTMS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT ALONG S COAST
DURING TUESDAY AS REMNANTS OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA PASSES S OF
THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS
OUR NORTHEAST WATERS THIS MORNING. DECENT PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD YIELD A BRIEF PERIOD OF 20 TO 25 KNOT NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS INTO MID AFTERNOON FROM BOSTON HARBOR AND POINTS NORTHEAST.
WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE TO MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ANY EARLY
SEASON RECREATIONAL BOATERS. SEAS MAY REACH 5 FEET FOR A SHORT TIME
TOWARD EVENING ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEAST WATERS...BUT FEEL ITS SHORT
LIVED AND WE ARE COVERED WITH THE MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT.
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT BEGINS
TO LOSE ITS PUNCH TONIGHT AND WILL WASHOUT BY SATURDAY. MAY SEE
SOME LEFT OVER MARGINAL 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEAST WATERS
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MAIN
CONCERN FOR MARINERS WILL BE FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPING
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE
VISIBILITIES IMPROVE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF OUR
WATERS....BUT MAY LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA...THOUGH MAY SEE
SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AND SEAS UP TO 5 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER
WATERS FOR A TIME SUNDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
LIKELY REDUCE VSBYS. MAY SEE PERIODS OF DRIZZLE ALONG THE SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS CONTINUE AS SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHETHER REMNANTS OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA AFFECT
THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE TUESDAY...ALONG WITH LOW CHANCE OF
SCT THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20
KT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY...MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE DROPPING TO
NEAR 30 PERCENT WHEN HIGH TEMPS ARE REACHED AWAY FROM THE
COAST...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AT THAT TIME. WINDS WILL INCREASE
SOME FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI BEHIND A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. IN FACT... BRIEF EAST
TO NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST MA...BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL BE INCREASING TO OVER 50 PERCENT AS MARINE AIR INVADES EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002-003.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC/FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
643 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AHEAD OF A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THIS
FRONT LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE
LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY
BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 80 NORTH
AND IN THE MID 80S SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN REMAIN IN
THE 60S WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
UPPER LOW ALONG WEST COAST WILL MOVE INLAND THIS PERIOD WHILE
SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVES EJECT NORTHEAST AND MOVE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. FORCING REMAINS WEAK WITH THESE WAVES BUT
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES. MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT GIVEN WEAK FLOW AND
FORCING. EXPECT WE WILL SEE A COUPLE DIFFERENT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION BUT AFRAID MODELS ARE OVERDONE ON COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY INITIALLY TODAY. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS AREA OF DECAYING
SHOWERS IN EASTERN IL AT 08Z WITH FIRST WEAK WAVE. THIS AREA MAY
CLIP FAR WESTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE SLOWLY
INCREASED POPS FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY BUT DID STAY IN THE CHANCE
RANGE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
SLIGHTLY BETTER WAVE APPROACHES LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE AREA. A WEAK SFC LOW EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG FRONT WHICH SHOULD AID IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
HELP DEVELOP A LARGER AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. TIMING WILL ALSO
BE FAVORABLE WITH SFC BASED CAPES IN THE 1-2K J/KG RANGE AND PWATS
POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES. SHEAR REMAINS WEAK SO SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IS LOW BUT LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. TRENDED POPS TO
LIKELY NEAR AND NORTH OF EXPECTED BOUNDARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 80S TODAY DESPITE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN THREAT. SATELLITE EARLY THIS MORNING
SHOWS PLENTY OF BREAKS AND IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO HEAT UP GIVEN
WARM START AND WARM TEMPS ALOFT. CLOUDS TONIGHT SHOULD HELP KEEP
LOWS IN THE 60S ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
SUMMERLIKE WARMTH AND PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY PERIODS AS DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY. LOW-AMPLITUDE/CONVECTIVELY AIDED MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THIS WEAK SW FLOW WILL HELP AID DEEPER
CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT TIMES...WITH HIGH POPS
WARRANTED GIVEN AMPLE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH WEAK FORCING/FLOW LIMITING
FACTORS FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN 50/60 TYPE POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WESTERN CONUS BROAD TROUGH/EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY/WESTERN LAKES BY LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT-MONDAY. THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD GET INTO THE SYSTEM WARM SECTOR
FOR A TIME AS ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION TRACKS ENE INTO WISCONSIN.
TIGHTENING OF THE MID LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT ATOP THIS INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS MAY SET THE STAGE FOR STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS ALONG TRAILING CDFNT BY MONDAY AFTN...ALTHOUGH AS ALWAYS
THREAT WILL BE HIGHLY CONDITIONAL...DEPENDENT ON DIURNAL
TIMING/DESTABILIZATION. COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL THEN FILTER IN POST
FRONTAL TUESDAY-THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH IL THIS MORNING COUPLED
WITH LOW LEVEL JET WAS GENERATING A FEW SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST IL.
RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THIS RAIN MAY STAY JUST WEST OF KSBN THIS
MORNING. WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY STILL DEVELOP THIS
MORNING...EXPECT BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO KSBN. STRONGER SHORT WAVE TO MOVE
THROUGH WHILE WEAK SFC FRONT SAGS INTO THE AREA. SHOULD SEE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW TSRA. HIRES RUC13 WANTS TO KEEP MOST
ACTIVITY WEST OF KFWA BUT NAM12 AND GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE ON
EASTWARD PUSH.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...LASHLEY
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
604 AM CDT Fri May 8 2015
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 318 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015
08Z water vapor and profiler data suggests a vort max is passing
through southeast KS at this hour. Meanwhile a closed upper low
continues to dig southeast into southern CA. At the surface, a cold
front stretched from Manhattan to Hiawatha. Some dryer and cooler
air was moving into north central KS behind this front. The shower
activity over eastern KS should continue moving east of the area
with the vort max through the morning.
For today and tonight, models show a diffluent southwesterly flow
persisting across the area while the cold front gradually pushes
south of the forecast area and becomes diffuse. All of the model
guidance shows this boundary remaining mainly south of the forecast
area keeping the axis of instability further south and west today
and tonight. Meanwhile both low level and deep layer shear
parameters are pretty weak due to the stronger flow remaining to the
west in closer proximity of the upper low. With this in mind, can
see why the latest SWODY1 outlook shifted the risk for severe
weather mainly south of the forecast area. Think that a good portion
of the day may be dry. Subsidence behind the vort max in
southeastern KS should bring an end to the morning showers.
Meanwhile there does not appear to be any obvious forcing
immediately upstream. Therefore think the next round of precip is
likely to be the remnants of today`s convection over the southern
plains lifting north within the mid level flow. So the forecast
shows the better chances for precip (outside of the morning rain)
occurring this evening and overnight. With limited instability and
relatively weak shear this evening, think storms are more likely to
remain sub-severe with heavy rainfall remaining a risk.
Highs today are expected to be slightly cooler across the northern
counties due to the neutral to weak cold air advection in the
boundary layer. With this in mind have highs in the lower 70s north
to the mid 70s across east central KS. Lows tonight are forecast to
be in the upper 50s to lower 60s with possible rain cooled air off
setting increasing cloud cover.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015
Much of the focus in the long term is on the potential severe
weather on Saturday and perhaps Sunday. Strong upper low currently
over southern CA will lift eastward, entering eastern CO by Saturday
afternoon. Ahead of the upper level forcing, the surface low deepens
across western KS, while strong southerly flow advects a very moist
airmass into the region. Raised dewpoints slightly in the middle 60s
Saturday afternoon, with a break in precip to warm highs in the
upper 70s. In comparison, models have not deviated much from
previous forecasts with organized convection focused to develop
along/ahead of the dryline in western/central Kansas, tracking
eastward through the evening. Main uncertainties are the storm
modes, whether storms are discrete or focused in a line as they
approach northeast Kansas. This formation and subsequent hazards
will depend on timing of any areas of lift ahead of the main upper
trough and how much destabilization can occur in the warm sector
ahead of any overnight or morning convection. With that said, the
Storm Prediction Center has shifted their enhanced risk further west
to account for these uncertainties, continuing to include all of
northeast Kansas in the slight risk. A few of the short term models
such as the NAM12 and 4 KM WRF are indicating that there will be
some clearing with the exiting precip Saturday morning. This would
quickly increase SFC based CAPE to up to 2000 J/KG with forecast
soundings depicting very weak inhibition. Effective shear is more
optimal over central and north central areas at 30 to 40 KTS by 4
PM, while a strong low level jet increases 0-1 KM bulk shear values
from 20 to 30 KTS after 7 PM. Overall setup with the forecast will
have lower end chances for thunderstorms in the morning, increasing
in the afternoon as instability enhances while minor waves may spark
mid afternoon thunderstorms across the area. These storms may
produce large hail and strong winds, however believe the tornado
threat is low until the late afternoon and evening period when the
main wave lifts out and storms quickly surge eastward from the
dryline. Would expect convection to continue through the evening and
come to an end Sunday morning. All hazards of severe weather remain
possible, with more emphasis on potential for river and flash
flooding with saturated conditions in place.
Sunday remains conditional for severe weather as the upper trough
phases with the sfc low over eastern Nebraska. Subsidence behind the
boundary will spread across much of central and portions of
northeast Kansas by late afternoon, effectively ending chances for
severe storms. Latest GFS and ECMWF remain slower with the sfc low,
positioning the better instability over far eastern Kansas.
Meanwhile the GEM and NAM are further east, with the severe weather
potential in Missouri. With still some uncertainties, maintained a
chance for thunderstorms across far eastern Kansas during the late
afternoon. If storms develop, all severe hazards are possible.
The extended period finally becomes quite as the upper trough lifts
northward and shortwave ridging builds in through mid week.
Northerly winds and a cooler airmass will drop back highs into the
60s and lows in the 40s. Next chance for thunderstorms arrives on
Wednesday and Thursday as the next wave builds eastward towards the
southern plains. Better moisture resides over this area, but will
maintain low end chances with much discrepancies between guidance.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 604 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015
Subsidence behind departing vort max should lead to dry conditions
through the day. Biggest uncertainty deals with MVFR CIGS behind
the front. RAP and NAM forecast soundings scatter out the lower
CIGS around 17Z, so have conditions improving early in the
afternoon. There may be more showers and storms tonight, but have
little confidence in timing these so will start out with a VCTS as
a first guess.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
927 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 923 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015
ADJUSTED GRIDS/FORECAST TO BE CLOSER TO HRRR MODEL OUTPUT. HRRR
HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT THE LAST FEW RUNS ON PUSHING THE PRECIP
TO OUR WEST THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA TODAY. AM CONCERNED ABOUT MCV
SEEN IN THE RADAR LOOPS OVER NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. SEEMS TO BE
LIFTING A BIT NORTHEAST AND MAY ENHANCE PRECIPITATION OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WILL BE
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON IT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. OUR REGION WILL BE ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A CLOSED LOW.
THE DEEP 500 MB CLOSED LOW WILL EJECT NORTHEAST FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST INTO THE UPPER MISSOURI VALLEY BY SUNDAY EVENING. PLENTY
OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES REMAINING
IN THE 1.5 TO 1.8 INCH RANGE. A SERIES OF IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE SMALLEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE OVER PARTS OF WESTERN
KENTUCKY...WHICH WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND ASSOCIATED IMPULSES.
THE FIRST IN THE SERIES OF IMPULSES IS RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER FAR WESTERN MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS EARLY
THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE BRINGING THIS PRECIP EASTWARD
TOO RAPIDLY THIS MORNING. THE SLOWER 00Z ECMWF LOOKS
REASONABLE...TAKING THE LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS INTO SE MISSOURI
AND SRN ILLINOIS LATER THIS MORNING...AND THEN INTO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING AS MUCH
INSTABILITY AS THEY DID IN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT STILL MORE THAN
ENOUGH FOR THUNDER. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG GRADIENT OF POPS
TODAY...RANGING FROM SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE KHOP AREA TO LIKELY IN
THE KMVN/KMDH/KPOF CORRIDOR. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY...EXCEPT A LITTLE COOLER IN THE AREA OF LIKELY POPS.
THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIP TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
THE FIRST IMPULSE.
ON SATURDAY...PRECIP CHANCES WILL AGAIN RAMP UP INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY IN PARTS OF OUR REGION AS A SECOND IMPULSE LIFTS
NORTHEAST. THE LOWEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE KHOP AREA...WHICH
WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF THE ACTIVE FLOW PATTERN. INSTABILITY IS
ONCE AGAIN NOT AS STRONG AS THE MODELS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...BUT
THUNDER IS STILL LIKELY. HIGH TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON THE DURATION OF
PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER...WHICH IS A CHALLENGE TO ESTIMATE. GIVEN
THE WARM START TO THE DAY AND WARM 850 MB TEMPS NEAR 14...IT WONT
TAKE MUCH SUN TO REACH THE LOWER AND MID 80S.
ANOTHER RELATIVE LULL IN THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF THE SECOND IMPULSE.
SUNDAY MAY BE THE WARMEST AND DRIEST PERIOD OF THE
WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE MOTION OF SUB-TROPICAL STORM ANA OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST. THE 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IS
FORECAST TO SHARPEN SOMEWHAT IN RESPONSE TO ANA...AND IT MAY
RETROGRADE A BIT WESTWARD. EVEN IF THIS TAKES PLACE...SOME
DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION WOULD OCCUR GIVEN THE STRONGER SOLAR
HEATING AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.
THE THIRD AND STRONGEST SHORTWAVE IN THE SERIES WILL EJECT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
LIKELY SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE AT
NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THEN VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE 00Z MODELS DEVELOP A LARGE SWATH OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM WESTERN
ARKANSAS THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. THEY
FIZZLE THIS CONVECTION OUT MONDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND THEY ARE LESS THAN ROBUST WITH
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. THEY DO
AGREE IN KEEPING THE AREA DRY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LIKELY POPS AREAWIDE ON MONDAY WITH AN
EMPHASIS IN THE WEST/NORTHWEST...AND WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA INTO MONDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE TIMING
OF THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION INTO THE REGION...AM LESS CONCERNED
WITH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON MONDAY.
REALLY LIKE THE 00Z GFS WHICH HAS BEEN MOST CONSISTENT HEADING
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. IT HAS PERSISTENT TROUGHING
OFF THE WEST COAST AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST...WITH A RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES/PLAINS. THIS RESULTS IN DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER OUR REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
SUPPORTS THE 00Z GFS OPERATIONAL RUN.
THE 00Z ECMWF HAS LESS TROUGHING IN THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST AND
REALLY FLATTENS THE RIDGE...PUTTING OUR AREA BACK INTO SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. OF COURSE WITH A DEPARTING SURFACE
HIGH...MOISTURE AND QPF FOLLOW QUICKLY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.
WOULD PREFER TO HAVE A DRY FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT
WILL HAVE TO KEEP POPS IN UNTIL THE ECMWF SHOWS SOME SIGN OF COMING
INTO LINE WITH THE GFS. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL ON
MONDAY AND THEN QUICKLY DROP A FEW TICKS BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING...ALONG
WITH DIURNAL HIGH-BASED CUMULUS CLOUDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN STORMS.
THE STORMS SHOULD END EARLY THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES PAST OUR AREA AND NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION TAKES
PLACE.
MID LEVEL CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. DUE TO HIGHER DEW
POINTS...LIGHT WINDS...AND POSSIBLY RAIN-MOISTENED GROUND...SOME
MVFR FOG IS LIKELY AROUND SUNRISE.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PS
SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...DRS
AVIATION...MY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
830 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015
.DISCUSSION...
WHAT IS LEFT OF THE OVERNIGHT MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD JUST
NORTH OF I-20 IN EXTREME EAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION REDEVELOPING FARTHER NORTHWEST. TWO CELLS OF
PRIMARY CONCERN. THE FIRST IS WHAT USED TO BE THE SWRN END OF THE
MCS...WHICH IS JUST EAST OF MINDEN LA AS OF 13Z.
THE SECOND STORM IS MOVING INTO CADDO PARISH AND OUT OF E TX.
EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRED EARLIER OVER HARRISON COUNTY. 6
INCHES OF RAIN WAS MEASURED NORTH OF HALLSVILLE AND CONSIDERABLE
FLASH FLOODING WAS ALSO REPORTED. THIS CELL IS DISSIPATING AS IT
MOVES INTO AIR THAT HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT STABILIZED BY COOL OUTFLOW
FROM THE OLD MCS TO THE EAST.
HAVE UPDATED POP/QPF/WX GRIDS THROUGH 18Z. /09/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015/
..CORRECTED TO INCLUDE AVIATION DISCUSSION...
DISCUSSION...
MCS CONTINUES TO MARCH EASTWARD BUT IS ALSO GRADUALLY WEAKENING.
LATEST HRRR HAS HANDLED THE CONVECTION QUITE WELL TONIGHT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF BEING TOO SLOW. RADAR TRENDS ALSO PROMOTE HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN THE HRRR IN REGARDS TO THE CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF OUR NRN LA PARISHES/SRN AR COUNTIES NORTH OF
I-20 WHICH SHOULD OCCUR AROUND 12-14Z BASED ON CURRENT SPEEDS.
HAVE ONCE INCLUDED PRE-FIRST PERIOD WORDING TO HANDLE POPS PRIOR
TO 12Z THIS MORNING. WILL LIKELY SEND A ZFP UPDATE AFTER THAT TIME
TO CLEAN UP THE TEXT.
WITH THE MCS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA EARLY IN THE
MORNING...LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE RAIN THIS MORNING SHOULD HAVE
PLENTY OF TIME TO RECOVER. RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COMBINED
WITH SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. YET ANOTHER MCS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM ACROSS SRN OK SOUTHWARD INTO TX. THE
NAM HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN TOO FAST OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH
MOVING CONVECTION INTO THE ARKLATEX. HOWEVER...OTHER MODELS ALSO
INDICATE SHWRS/TSTMS MOVING INTO AREAS NW OF A TYLER TO PRESCOTT
LINE PRIOR TO 09/06Z SO HAVE INCLUDED LIKELY POPS BEGINNING THIS
EVENING. A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS IN PLAY MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
DAMAGING WINDS.
SATURDAY`S FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH A REPEAT OF TODAY. ONE ROUND OF
CONVECTION SHOULD END DURING THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS. POPS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE GOING INTO
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS OVER THE AREA IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH EJECTING NEWD FROM THE ROCKIES INTO
KS/NE. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO APPROACH THE AREA WHICH SHOULD
PROVIDE AN ENHANCED FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT. SEVERE WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY INCLUDING A
THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
THE CONTINUED HIGH RAIN CHANCES POINT TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
BEING POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING COULD
EASILY BE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS MOST
LIKELY ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT INTERACTING WITH THE
FRONT AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC LOW OVER S TX WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED TIME
FRAME. /09/
AVIATION...
EXPECT SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS DEEP E TX...NW
LA...AND S AR THROUGH SUNRISE OF THIS FRIDAY MORNING. THE RAINS
SHOULD WEAKEN AND END BEFORE LUNCHTIME LATE THIS FRIDAY MORNING.
IN THE MEANTIME...SOME SCT MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE DURING THIS
FRIDAY MORNING NEAR AND AFTER SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS TO THEN
DOMINATE DURING THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY SATURDAY
MORNING NEAR SUNRISE...MORE SCT TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH MVFR
CEILINGS AS WELL. /VIII/.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 85 71 85 70 / 50 30 30 30
MLU 87 69 86 69 / 50 10 30 20
DEQ 83 69 81 68 / 50 50 40 60
TXK 84 69 83 68 / 50 40 40 50
ELD 85 70 84 69 / 30 30 30 30
TYR 85 69 83 71 / 30 40 40 40
GGG 85 71 84 71 / 40 30 30 40
LFK 87 72 85 72 / 30 30 30 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
09
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KCAR
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
912 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION TODAY WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM QUEBEC SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
BACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT FROM QUEBEC WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
---910AM UPDATE---
RADAR INDICATING SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. HAVE RECEIVED SOME REPORTS OF GRAUPEL
WHICH IS NOT OVERLY SURPRISING WHEN CONSIDERING HOW LOW THE
FREEZING LEVEL AND WBZ HEIGHTS ARE. NOT REALLY MAKING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF CHANGES THIS MORNING. HAVE TWEAKED A FEW ELEMENTS FOR
CURRENT TRENDS.
600 AM UPDATE: BASED ON LATEST FCST HRLY HRRR SIM RADAR AND CAN-AM
RADAR IMAGERY...WE TM SHIFTED THE ARRIVAL OF SHWRS ACROSS THE N BACK
BY 2 HRS. THIS RESULTED IN A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN QPF IN THE 06-12Z
TM PD THIS MORN. SHWRS SHOULD STILL EXIT/DISSIPATE ACROSS NE PTNS
OF THE REGION ARND MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
TO FCST HRLY TEMPS BASED ON 5-6 AM OBSVD TEMPS.
ORGNL DISC: A WEAK S/WV MOVG SE FROM NRN QB OVR NE PTNS OF THE FA
THIS MORN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SHWRS OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA...BUT
WITH VERY DRY SUB CLD AIR...WE ARE NOT SURE HOW MUCH RN WILL REACH
THE SFC...SO WE LOWERED FCST QPF BULLSEYES FOR BOTH THE 06-12Z AND
12-18Z TM FRAMES BY SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. ANY SHWR
ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN MOVE SE OUT OF THE FA BY ERLY AFTN AS THE
S/WV MOVES SE INTO SRN NB. HI TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN YSTDY
AFTN ACROSS THE REGION...BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...SPCLY IF
WE GET MORE SUNSHINE THEN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED SINCE THE AIR MASS
BEHIND THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS UNUSUALLY DRY...LIKELY A RESULT
OF THE ORIGIN BEING OVR LAND AREAS OF FAR NRN QB AND LABRADOR...
MEANING THAT TEMPS COULD RESPOND QUICKLY AND RISE ABV OUR CURRENT
HI TEMPS FCST FOR OUR REGION.
TONIGHT SHOULD BE RNFL FREE...BEGINNING MCLR TO PTLY CLDY...BUT
WITH RETURN SRLY FLOW INCREASING ABV THE BL LATE TNGT...OCEAN ST
SHOULD ADVECT NWRD OVR LAND BY DAYBREAK SUN...AFFECTING DOWNEAST
AREAS FIRST. OVRNGT LOWS WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD FOR THIS TM OF
SEASON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING UNDER A GROWING UPPER RIDGE. THE DAY STARTS WITH A STEEP
FRONTAL INVERSION AND WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS. THE INVERSION WILL
SLOWLY ERODE OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY FOR THE NORTHWEST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ALLOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S WITH MUCH
HIGHER HUMIDITY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR IS
SLOWER THAN HAD BEEN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THE DOWN EAST REGION
WILL MAINTAIN THE INVERSION ALL DAY AND HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW. WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD HOLD ON INTO SUNDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE IN QUEBEC BY LATER SATURDAY. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE THE DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
AND WARM/MOIST AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH. UNFORTUNATELY...THE FRONT
WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...THE HUMID AIR MASS WILL FINALLY BE IN
PLACE AND LOWS WILL ONLY DROP TO THE LOWER 50S EXCEPT ALONG COAST
WHERE MID 40S ARE ANTICIPATED. FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE COAST AND SPREAD NORTH LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE CROWN OF
MAINE...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EASE INTO THE AREA AND THERE ARE
CONTINUED SIGNS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS THE THERMAL RIDGE
BUILDS ALOFT. HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO SATURDAY
NIGHT`S FORECAST.
FOR SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD DURING THE
DAY. THIS MEANS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SHOWERS. HAVE NOT ADDED
MENTION OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS YET AS IT REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR AND WHERE. GUIDANCE CONTINUES PROVIDE A
VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE SPEED OF THE FRONT AND ANY AXIS
OF INSTABILITY. IT IS CLEAR THAT IT WILL BE THE MOST HUMID DAY OF
THE SEASON FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST WITH DEW POINTS APPROACHING
60F. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
WITH GREATER CLOUD COVER IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK...HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE COAST WILL ALSO BE COOLER...BUT WINDS
WILL BE LESS ONSHORE AND TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND RETURN AS A WARM FRONT LATER MONDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH AND PROVIDES A DECENT SHOT
AT A DRY MONDAY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE MORE STRATIFORM AND HAVE SPECIFIED RAIN RATHER THAN
SHOWERS FOR MOST AREAS UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH
CROSSES WEDNESDAY AND PRODUCES ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS. DRIER
CONDITIONS AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...WITH LOWER VFR CLGS WITH LGT SHWRS
POSSIBLE OVR NRN TAF SITES THIS MORN. LOWER OCEAN ST MOVG
INLAND COULD RESULT IN MVFR CLGS OVR DOWNEAST SITES LATE TNGT.
SHORT TERM: MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE FORECAST SATURDAY MORNING. CIGS
WILL PROBABLY STAY MVFR ALL DAY FOR MOST SITES AND COULD BE IFR
ALL DAY ALONG THE COASTAL SITES SUCH AS BHB. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL CAUSE IFR CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
AT ALL TERMINALS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT NORTH
OF HUL.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS ALL THE WATERS OVERNIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FRIDAY FOR THE SOUTHWEST COASTAL WATERS...WITH
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
ACROSS THE REST OF THE WATERS.
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOG WILL
BE AN ISSUE STARTING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ051.
&&
$$
POHL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
610 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION TODAY WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM QUEBEC SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
BACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT FROM QUEBEC WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
600 AM UPDATE: BASED ON LATEST FCST HRLY HRRR SIM RADAR AND CAN-AM
RADAR IMAGERY...WE TM SHIFTED THE ARRIVAL OF SHWRS ACROSS THE N BACK
BY 2 HRS. THIS RESULTED IN A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN QPF IN THE 06-12Z
TM PD THIS MORN. SHWRS SHOULD STILL EXIT/DISSIPATE ACROSS NE PTNS
OF THE REGION ARND MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
TO FCST HRLY TEMPS BASED ON 5-6 AM OBSVD TEMPS.
ORGNL DISC: A WEAK S/WV MOVG SE FROM NRN QB OVR NE PTNS OF THE FA
THIS MORN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SHWRS OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA...BUT
WITH VERY DRY SUB CLD AIR...WE ARE NOT SURE HOW MUCH RN WILL REACH
THE SFC...SO WE LOWERED FCST QPF BULLSEYES FOR BOTH THE 06-12Z AND
12-18Z TM FRAMES BY SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. ANY SHWR
ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN MOVE SE OUT OF THE FA BY ERLY AFTN AS THE
S/WV MOVES SE INTO SRN NB. HI TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN YSTDY
AFTN ACROSS THE REGION...BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...SPCLY IF
WE GET MORE SUNSHINE THEN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED SINCE THE AIR MASS
BEHIND THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS UNUSUALLY DRY...LIKELY A RESULT
OF THE ORIGIN BEING OVR LAND AREAS OF FAR NRN QB AND LABRADOR...
MEANING THAT TEMPS COULD RESPOND QUICKLY AND RISE ABV OUR CURRENT
HI TEMPS FCST FOR OUR REGION.
TONIGHT SHOULD BE RNFL FREE...BEGINNING MCLR TO PTLY CLDY...BUT
WITH RETURN SRLY FLOW INCREASING ABV THE BL LATE TNGT...OCEAN ST
SHOULD ADVECT NWRD OVR LAND BY DAYBREAK SUN...AFFECTING DOWNEAST
AREAS FIRST. OVRNGT LOWS WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD FOR THIS TM OF
SEASON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING UNDER A GROWING UPPER RIDGE. THE DAY STARTS WITH A STEEP
FRONTAL INVERSION AND WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS. THE INVERSION WILL
SLOWLY ERODE OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY FOR THE NORTHWEST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ALLOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S WITH MUCH
HIGHER HUMIDITY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR IS
SLOWER THAN HAD BEEN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THE DOWN EAST REGION
WILL MAINTAIN THE INVERSION ALL DAY AND HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW. WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD HOLD ON INTO SUNDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE IN QUEBEC BY LATER SATURDAY. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE THE DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
AND WARM/MOIST AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH. UNFORTUNATELY...THE FRONT
WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...THE HUMID AIR MASS WILL FINALLY BE IN
PLACE AND LOWS WILL ONLY DROP TO THE LOWER 50S EXCEPT ALONG COAST
WHERE MID 40S ARE ANTICIPATED. FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE COAST AND SPREAD NORTH LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE CROWN OF
MAINE...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EASE INTO THE AREA AND THERE ARE
CONTINUED SIGNS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS THE THERMAL RIDGE
BUILDS ALOFT. HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO SATURDAY
NIGHT`S FORECAST.
FOR SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD DURING THE
DAY. THIS MEANS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SHOWERS. HAVE NOT ADDED
MENTION OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS YET AS IT REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR AND WHERE. GUIDANCE CONTINUES PROVIDE A
VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE SPEED OF THE FRONT AND ANY AXIS
OF INSTABILITY. IT IS CLEAR THAT IT WILL BE THE MOST HUMID DAY OF
THE SEASON FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST WITH DEW POINTS APPROACHING
60F. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
WITH GREATER CLOUD COVER IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK...HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE COAST WILL ALSO BE COOLER...BUT WINDS
WILL BE LESS ONSHORE AND TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND RETURN AS A WARM FRONT LATER MONDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH AND PROVIDES A DECENT SHOT
AT A DRY MONDAY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE MORE STRATIFORM AND HAVE SPECIFIED RAIN RATHER THAN
SHOWERS FOR MOST AREAS UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH
CROSSES WEDNESDAY AND PRODUCES ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS. DRIER
CONDITIONS AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...WITH LOWER VFR CLGS WITH LGT SHWRS
POSSIBLE OVR NRN TAF SITES THIS MORN. LOWER OCEAN ST MOVG
INLAND COULD RESULT IN MVFR CLGS OVR DOWNEAST SITES LATE TNGT.
SHORT TERM: MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE FORECAST SATURDAY MORNING. CIGS
WILL PROBABLY STAY MVFR ALL DAY FOR MOST SITES AND COULD BE IFR
ALL DAY ALONG THE COASTAL SITES SUCH AS BHB. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL CAUSE IFR CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
AT ALL TERMINALS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT NORTH
OF HUL.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS ALL THE WATERS OVERNIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FRIDAY FOR THE SOUTHWEST COASTAL WATERS...WITH
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
ACROSS THE REST OF THE WATERS.
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOG WILL
BE AN ISSUE STARTING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
1019 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA MEANDERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BEFORE WEAKENING AND MOVING ONSHORE LATE SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE REMNANT LOW OF ANA WILL LIFT
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...FOG HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE VIRGINIA EASTERN SHORE AND
MOST OF THE MARYLAND LOWER EASTERN SHORE AS OF 1000 AM. FOGGY
CONDITIONS LINGER ACROSS THE MARYLAND BEACHES FROM ASSATEAGUE TO
OCEAN CITY AND SHOULD IMPROVE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE
LOCAL THIS MORNING AS SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY ROUGHLY 150 MILES OFF THE GA/SC COAST. FLOW REMAINS
WEAK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH HAS
ALLOWED DENSE FOG TO PERSIST OVER THE VA/MD ERN SHORE. LATEST
11-3.9U SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE DENSE FOG IS STRUGGLING
TO PUSH WWD OVER THE BAY AND INTO THE ERN VA PENINSULAS THANKS TO
DRIER AIR...BUT HAS SPREAD/DEVELOPED OVER THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY
AND SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON ROAD. THE TRENDS ARE CONTRADICTORY TO HI-RES
GUIDANCE...WHICH CONTINUES TO INDICATE FOG WILL ADVECT AS FAR AS
CNTRL VA. WILL CONTINUE WITH DENSE FOG ADVISORY OVER THE ERN SHORE
THRU 8AM...AND INCLUDE AREAS OF FOG ACROSS SOUTHEAST VA. AN SPS
HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. FOG DISSIPATES/LIFTS BY MID MORNING.
VORT LOBE VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR CURRENTLY LIFTING ACROSS ERN NC
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LIGHT RAIN SPREADING AS FAR NORTH AS THE
PAMLICO SOUND. LATEST RAP GUIDANCE LIFTS THE VORT MAX OVER THE SE
COUNTIES AROUND DAYBREAK...ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE (PWATS ~1.3
INCHES). HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO DEPICTS ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA. RESULTANT SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY PREVENT
MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
SE. WILL MAINTAIN LOW-END CHANCE POPS THIS MORNING...BUT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. BAND
DISSIPATES AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR OVER CNTRL VA.
ADDITIONAL BANDS OF ENERGY AND MOISTURE PROGGED TO ROUND THE NRN
PERIPHERY OF ANA THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THETA-E
ADVECTION IN TANDEM WITH TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S WILL PROVIDE FOR
MLCAPE VALUES AOB 500 J/KG ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES.
HOWEVER...LIMITATIONS OF ONSHORE FLOW...WEAK WIND FIELDS...MEAGER
LIFT AND WARM TEMPS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN LITTLE MORE THAN ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. SIMILAR THICKNESSES TO 24 HRS AGO AND
H85 TEMPS +1 STD DEV WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER WARM DAY. HIGHS INLAND
GENERALLY IN THE LOW 80S. COOLER IN THE SE DUE TO THICKER CLOUD
COVER AND ONSHORE FLOW...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S. EVEN
COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOCAL AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THRU
THE SHORT TERM. A POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
LIFT INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS SAT AS THE RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFF THE ERN
SEABOARD. WHILE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WEAK...MODELS PROG THE MEANDERING
ANA TO BEGIN LIFTING SLOWLY WNW SAT AND FINALLY ONSHORE OVER SC SUN.
FOR THE WAKEFIELD AREA...MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS FROM ANA
CONTINUE TO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...HIGH SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS. OTHERWISE...WARM
TEMPS AND OVERNIGHT PATCHY FOG PERSISTS.
HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SRN COUNTIES TONIGHT
AS PIECES OF ENERGY AND MOISTURE LIFT OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL FORCING EXPECT MOST LOCALES TO
REMAIN DRY. INCREASING MOISTURE SAT AND SUN ALONG WITH MEAGER
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE
INLAND WHERE CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED. BETTER COVERAGE
EXPECTED SUN AFTERNOON AS BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ARRIVES ONSHORE
IN TANDEM WITH DEEPER MOISTURE. MAIN LIMITATION CONTINUES TO BE
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WARM TEMPS
ALOFT. PWATS GENERALLY AOB 1.5 INCHES...WHICH COMBINED WITH ONLY
MODEST DYNAMICS WILL LIMIT TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS.
HIGHS SAT AND SUN REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
LOW 80S INLAND AND THE MID-UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. IMMEDIATE
COAST MAY ONLY WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S DUE TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S THRU THE SHORT TERM.
SKIES AVG PARTLY CLOUDY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WK/REMNANT SFC LO PRES FCST TO TRACK NE INVOF NC/VA/MD CST SUN
NGT/MON...THEN AWAY FM THE RGN THEREAFTER. OTRW...HI PRES RMNS
ANCHORED OFF THE SE CONUS CST. A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN TUE
NGT..THEN OFFSHORE WED. WILL CONT ISOLD/SCT POPS...ESP DAYTIME
HRS MON AND TUE...THEN TREND POPS DOWN W-E WED-THU POST CDFNT.
WARMER THAN NORMAL WX XPCD TO CONT SUN NGT THROUGH TUE...THEN BACK
CLOSER TO NORMAL WED/THU. HI TEMPS THROUGH TUE IN THE 80S...EXCEPT
COOLER 70S IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS IN THE 60S. HI TEMPS WED/THU
RANGING THROUGH THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CSTL VSBYS QUICKLY IMPROVING EXCEPT AT SBY WHERE DATA SUGGESTS IT
MAY HANG ARND A FEW MORE HRS. OTW...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR
THEN VFR DUE TO SCT-BKN SC CIGS. LOW CONFIDENCE ABOUT WHETHER ANY
BANDS OF SHWRS FROM ANA CAN MAKE IT NORTH OF THE VA BRDER SO KEPT
THE TAFS DRY WITH THE 12Z ISSUANCE. ECG MAY SEE SCT SHWRS AFTR 16Z
BUT TIMING ANY SHWR IS PROBLEMATIC ATTM.
GIVEN LITTLE CHANGE/MOVEMENT IN SYNOPTIC FEATURES...COULD VERY
WELL SEE A REPEAT OF LOW CLOUDS AND PTCHY FOG AGAIN TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITIES OF ONE MILE OR LESS CONTINUES FROM
FENWICK ISLAND TO PARRAMORE ISLAND THROUGH 100 PM. CONDITIONS
FINALLY IMPROVE THEREAFTER WITH FOG LIFTING AND DISSIPATING WITH
AFTERNOON MIXING.
PVS DSCN:
DESPITE SUB TRPCL STORM ANA OFF THE SC COAST...MARINE CONDITIONS
ACROSS AKQ WATERS RTHR TRANQUIL ATTM AND WILL LIKELY STAY THAT WAY
AS THE SYSTM IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE MOVEMENT NORTH OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. EXCEPTION BEING SEAS WHERE THEY HAVE INCREASED TO
NEAR 5 FEET ACROSS NRN OUTER BANKS AND DATA SUGGESTS THAT SOME 5
FOOTERS MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS OFF THE VA BCH COAST LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT SO WILL CARRY SCA HEADLINES FOR SEAS MAINLY SOUTH OF
CAPE CHARLES LGHT THRU TONIGHT AND INTO SAT ACROSS NC CSTL WTRS.
SEAS PROGGED TO SUBSIDE A BIT AS THE CENTER OF ANA MOVES ONSHORE
THIS WEEKEND DESPITE THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. HAVE DROPPED
SEAS TO JUST BLO SCA LVLS FOR NOW WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT SEAS
MIGHT INCREASE ERLY NEXT WEEK AS THE REMNANT CIRCULATION GETS
DRAWN N-NE AHEAD OF APPRCHG TROF. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 15
KTS THRU SUN.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ656.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM/TMG
NEAR TERM...BMD/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR/ESS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
642 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA MEANDERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BEFORE WEAKENING AND MOVING ONSHORE LATE SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE REMNANT LOW OF ANA WILL LIFT
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE LOCAL THIS MORNING AS
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ROUGHLY 150 MILES
OFF THE GA/SC COAST. FLOW REMAINS WEAK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH HAS ALLOWED DENSE FOG TO PERSIST OVER
THE VA/MD ERN SHORE. LATEST 11-3.9U SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THAT
THE DENSE FOG IS STRUGGLING TO PUSH WWD OVER THE BAY AND INTO THE
ERN VA PENINSULAS THANKS TO DRIER AIR...BUT HAS SPREAD/DEVELOPED
OVER THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY AND SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON ROAD. THE TRENDS
ARE CONTRADICTORY TO HI-RES GUIDANCE...WHICH CONTINUES TO INDICATE
FOG WILL ADVECT AS FAR AS CNTRL VA. WILL CONTINUE WITH DENSE FOG
ADVISORY OVER THE ERN SHORE THRU 8AM...AND INCLUDE AREAS OF FOG
ACROSS SOUTHEAST VA. AN SPS HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. FOG
DISSIPATES/LIFTS BY MID MORNING.
VORT LOBE VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR CURRENTLY LIFTING ACROSS ERN NC
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LIGHT RAIN SPREADING AS FAR NORTH AS THE
PAMLICO SOUND. LATEST RAP GUIDANCE LIFTS THE VORT MAX OVER THE SE
COUNTIES AROUND DAYBREAK...ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE (PWATS ~1.3
INCHES). HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO DEPICTS ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA. RESULTANT SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY PREVENT
MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
SE. WILL MAINTAIN LOW-END CHANCE POPS THIS MORNING...BUT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. BAND
DISSIPATES AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR OVER CNTRL VA.
ADDITIONAL BANDS OF ENERGY AND MOISTURE PROGGED TO ROUND THE NRN
PERIPHERY OF ANA THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THETA-E
ADVECTION IN TANDEM WITH TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S WILL PROVIDE FOR
MLCAPE VALUES AOB 500 J/KG ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES.
HOWEVER...LIMITATIONS OF ONSHORE FLOW...WEAK WIND FIELDS...MEAGER
LIFT AND WARM TEMPS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN LITTLE MORE THAN ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. SIMILAR THICKNESSES TO 24 HRS AGO AND
H85 TEMPS +1 STD DEV WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER WARM DAY. HIGHS INLAND
GENERALLY IN THE LOW 80S. COOLER IN THE SE DUE TO THICKER CLOUD
COVER AND ONSHORE FLOW...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S. EVEN
COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOCAL AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THRU
THE SHORT TERM. A POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
LIFT INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS SAT AS THE RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFF THE ERN
SEABOARD. WHILE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WEAK...MODELS PROG THE MEANDERING
ANA TO BEGIN LIFTING SLOWLY WNW SAT AND FINALLY ONSHORE OVER SC SUN.
FOR THE WAKEFIELD AREA...MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS FROM ANA
CONTINUE TO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...HIGH SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS. OTHERWISE...WARM
TEMPS AND OVERNIGHT PATCHY FOG PERSISTS.
HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SRN COUNTIES TONIGHT
AS PIECES OF ENERGY AND MOISTURE LIFT OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL FORCING EXPECT MOST LOCALES TO
REMAIN DRY. INCREASING MOISTURE SAT AND SUN ALONG WITH MEAGER
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE
INLAND WHERE CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED. BETTER COVERAGE
EXPECTED SUN AFTERNOON AS BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ARRIVES ONSHORE
IN TANDEM WITH DEEPER MOISTURE. MAIN LIMITATION CONTINUES TO BE
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WARM TEMPS
ALOFT. PWATS GENERALLY AOB 1.5 INCHES...WHICH COMBINED WITH ONLY
MODEST DYNAMICS WILL LIMIT TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS.
HIGHS SAT AND SUN REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
LOW 80S INLAND AND THE MID-UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. IMMEDIATE
COAST MAY ONLY WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S DUE TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S THRU THE SHORT TERM.
SKIES AVG PARTLY CLOUDY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WK/REMNANT SFC LO PRES FCST TO TRACK NE INVOF NC/VA/MD CST SUN
NGT/MON...THEN AWAY FM THE RGN THEREAFTER. OTRW...HI PRES RMNS
ANCHORED OFF THE SE CONUS CST. A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN TUE
NGT..THEN OFFSHORE WED. WILL CONT ISOLD/SCT POPS...ESP DAYTIME
HRS MON AND TUE...THEN TREND POPS DOWN W-E WED-THU POST CDFNT.
WARMER THAN NORMAL WX XPCD TO CONT SUN NGT THROUGH TUE...THEN BACK
CLOSER TO NORMAL WED/THU. HI TEMPS THROUGH TUE IN THE 80S...EXCEPT
COOLER 70S IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS IN THE 60S. HI TEMPS WED/THU
RANGING THROUGH THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CSTL VSBYS QUICKLY IMPROVING EXCEPT AT SBY WHERE DATA SUGGESTS IT
MAY HANG ARND A FEW MORE HRS. OTW...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR
THEN VFR DUE TO SCT-BKN SC CIGS. LOW CONFIDENCE ABOUT WHETHER ANY
BANDS OF SHWRS FROM ANA CAN MAKE IT NORTH OF THE VA BRDER SO KEPT
THE TAFS DRY WITH THE 12Z ISSUANCE. ECG MAY SEE SCT SHWRS AFTR 16Z
BUT TIMING ANY SHWR IS PROBLEMATIC ATTM.
GIVEN LITTLE CHANGE/MOVMNT IN SYNOPTIC FEATURES...COULD VERY WELL
SEE A REPEAT OF LOW CLOUDS AND PTCHY FOG AGAIN TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
THE PTCHY DENSE FOG HAS DSPTD ACROSS THE BAY THUS HAVE DROPPED THE
DENSE FOG ADVSRY THERE. DENSE FOG CONTINUES ALONG THE CSTL WATERS
ALONG THE EN SHORE AND DATA SUGGESTS IT LINGERS A FEW MORE HRS SO
EXTENDED THE ADVSRY THERE TRU 10 AM.
PVS DSCN:
DESPITE SUB TRPLCL STORM ANA OFF THE SC COAST...MARINE CONDITIONS
ACROSS AKQ WATERS RTHR TRANQUIL ATTM AND WILL LIKELY STAY THAT WAY
AS THE SYSTM IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE MOVMNT NORTH OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. EXCEPTION BEING SEAS WHERE THEY HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 5
FEET ACROSS NRN OUTER BANKS AND DATA SUGGESTS THAT SOME 5 FOOTERS
MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS OFF THE VA BCH COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
SO WILL CARRY SCA HEADLINES FOR SEAS MAINLY SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES
LGHT THRU TONIGHT AND INTO SAT ACROSS NC CSTL WTRS.
SEAS PROGGED TO SUBSIDE A BIT AS THE CENTER OF ANA MOVES ONSHORE
THIS WEEKEND DESPITE THE PERSISTANT ONSHORE FLOW. HAVE DROPPED SEAS
TO JUST BLO SCA LVLS FOR NOW WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT SEAS MIGHT
INCREASE ERLY NEXT WEEK AS THE REMNANT CIRCULATION GETS DRAWN N-NE
AHEAD OF APPRCHG TROF. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 15 KTS THRU SUN.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ024-025.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ021>023.
NC...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ099-100.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-652-
654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM/TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
612 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CURRENT IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A THIN VEIL OF HIGH CIRRUS
MOVING OVER THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE CLOUDS
HELPED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT...AND KEPT
FOG FROM DEVELOPING.
EXPECTING THE HIGH CLOUDS TO EVACUATE BY MID-MORNING...LEADING TO
ANOTHER MORNING OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND A QUICK WARM-UP. ALL
SIGNS POINT TO AN EVEN WARMER DAY THAN THURSDAY...AS LOW TO MID-
LEVEL TEMPERATURES PUSH EVEN HIGHER WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
VEERING TO SOUTHERLY. LATEST RAP IS CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN THE
REST OF THE GUIDANCE WITH 850MB TEMPS NEARING 20C. THIS COMBINED
WITH SUNSHINE WOULD MEAN TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE 90S. AT
THIS POINT...FEEL THESE MID-LEVEL TEMPS ARE UNATTAINABLE IN THE
ABSENCE OF A STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION SIGNAL. WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE WARM MET NUMBERS.
THE WARM SUMMER-LIKE AIR MASS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN GENERATE ISOLATED
OR SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE
OF THE HIGH TERRAIN. OTHERWISE...NOT CARRYING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
TONIGHT. YET ANOTHER MILD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
TAX
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE STATUS QUO IS BASICALLY MAINTAINED INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
AS UPPER RIDGING REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE AREA INTO THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE HAS LARGELY SLOWED THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ALL
WEEK AS IT EJECTS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THIS RESULTS IN WARM
CONDITIONS PERSISTING RIGHT INTO MONDAY.
RELATIVELY CONTINUOUS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP HUMID
CONDITIONS IN PLACE. POOR MODEL-TO-MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY EXISTS WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY. YET AGAIN WITH THE 00Z CYCLE
TONIGHT...SOME MODELS FAVOR IT...OTHERS DO NOT. BECAUSE OF THE
WARM/HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
BE HIGH...AND GIVEN THAT A LIFTING MECHANISM WILL BE REQUIRED TO
GENERATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION...CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS WERE MAINTAINED GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF THE WAVE
PASSAGE ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...A SLOWER TRANSITION EASTWARD OF
LARGE SCALE RIDGING MEANS LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES LINGER IN THE MID TEENS...HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO
LOOK TO REMAIN LARGELY IN THE 60S...THOUGH WITH EACH PASSING
NIGHT...BOTH THERMAL BELTS AND URBAN HEAT ISLANDS ARE LIKELY TO
BECOME STRONGER. THIS WAS REFLECTED IN OVERNIGHT LOW TRENDS IN THE
FORECAST. FRIES
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN INTERESTING TREND HAS DEVELOPED AMONGST THE GUIDANCE WITH
RESPECT TO THE BREAKDOWN OF THE THE RIDGE AS A DEEP UPPER LOW
MOVES EASTWARD AND LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. PREVIOUS MODEL
GUIDANCE HAD LARGELY BLASTED THIS FEATURE RIGHT THROUGH OUR
REGION. MORE RECENT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR A MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK OF IT...WITH ONLY SHORT WAVE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT AND A MUCH
WEAKER MOISTURE FIELD TRANSITING THE AREA LARGELY MONDAY NIGHT.
POPS CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED ON THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER THE DRY
PERIOD BEFORE AND AFTER ITS PASSAGE HAVE BEEN BOTH LENGTHENED.
BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FAVOR BROAD TROUGHING BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS WITH A RIDGE SETTING UP OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
ROCKIES. WITH THE JET AXIS LARGELY TO OUR SOUTH...MOISTURE FLOW
TOWARD THE AREA WILL BE CUT OFF AND DRY CANADIAN AIR WILL LARGELY
BE IN CHARGE. THIS WILL MEAN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND MORE
SUN THAN CLOUDS. IT STILL REMAINS POSSIBLE THAT SOME FROSTS COULD
OCCUR IN SOME LOCATIONS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. FRIES
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH MID-LEVEL
CU EXPECTED. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MD/WV.
TAX
.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WILL BE MONDAY WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
746 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
WARM AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FROM
TODAY RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE UP ALONG A FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING BACK
AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA. THESE WAVES WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER ON MONDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL IT. MUCH COOLER
AIR WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE IN ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
OUR MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS DETERMINING TIMING OF WAVES OF
BETTER CHCS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND LOOKING AT ANY KIND OF
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. WE ARE THINKING THAT A WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THREAT LOOKS QUITE LIMITED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS.
WE WILL SEE A LITTLE BETTER CHC FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND A STORM
TODAY...COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE MUCH BETTER CHC WILL COME
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING FOR THE AREA. THE MOISTURE AXIS
HAS SHIFTED OVER THE AREA...HOWEVER IT IS IN THE PROCESS OF
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES IN. THIS IS OCCURRING AS THE BETTER LLJ IS
STAYING WELL NORTH OF THE CWFA THIS MORNING AND MOVING AWAY.
WE WILL SEE ANOTHER LLJ OF 30+ KNOTS MOVE IN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN TO MUCH OF
THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT MORNING BEFORE IT MOVES NORTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA ON SAT AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ACTUALLY DROP THE
FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA AND PROVIDE FOR A SOMEWHAT DRIER PERIOD
FOR SAT NIGHT.
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
DURING THE DAY ON SUN. WE WILL SEE A STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW TAKE
SHAPE OVER THE REGION AS THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO EJECT TO THE E/NE
FROM THE DESERT SW. THIS SCENARIO WILL HELP TO PUSH THE STALLED OUT
FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. A NICE SLUG OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WILL MOVE UP INTO THE AREA...HELPING TO FOCUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LOOKING REAL LIKELY FOR THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. INSTABILITY FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW IS GENERALLY A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE WITH LI/S OF AROUND -2 TO -4C. NO REAL THICK
CAPE PROFILES TO HELP WITH LARGE HAIL. WIND FIELDS ARE GENERALLY ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE...PRODUCING DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF UNDER 25-30
KNOTS. THE WARM FRONT COMING UP ON SUN IS A LITTLE CONCERNING. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS A BIT BETTER ALSO ON SUN AS THE MID LEVEL JET STREAK
MOVES CLOSER TO THE STATE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
IT WOULD SEEM STRONG STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE MONDAY AS THE PRIMARY
SYSTEM COMES OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND PHASES WITH
THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. BEYOND THAT COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW AT
LEAST INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK WELL WEST OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AS IT
COMES OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNTIED STATES MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS
SEEMS MORE RELUCTANT TO BRING SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN INTO THE WARM
SECTOR OF THE STORM. IF THAT TURNS OUT TO BE TRUE THE SEVERE STORMS
WOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY. STILL ALL MODELS SHOW SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN GETS INTO THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION TO THE UPPER JET
AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH WISCONSIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. WE STILL
HAVE A 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET OVER EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY LATE
AFTERNOON...THERE IS AT LEAST 1000 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AND
THERE IS 50 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. IT REMAINS A QUESTION OF
JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT ACTUALLY GETS MONDAY. IT REMAINS
CLEAR SEVERE WEATHER IS STILL A REAL THREAT FOR SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
BEYOND THAT ALL MODELS AGREE THE COLD AIR COMES IN FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. NOW THOUGH THE ECMWF SHOWS A SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES MOVING INTO OUR AREA BY THURSDAY.
THIS SEEMS TO FAST TO ME AND THE ECMWF WAS NOT DOING THIS PREVIOULSY
SO I DID NOT ACCOUNT FOR IT IN OUR ZONE FORECAST.
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH WHAT HAPPENS TO TYPHOON NOUL. IT SEEMS TO WANT
TO RECUVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. LAST YEAR EVERY TIME THIS HAPPENED WE AND
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR ABOUT A WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
MOSTLY VFR CONDTIONS TODAY BUT SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR AND EAST OF US-131. THERE WILL BE
TO SCATTERED TO PUT IN THE TAFS SO I HAVE VCTS UNTIL THE DETAILS
CAN BE ADDED ONCE THE STORMS DEVELOP.
A WAVE ON THE FRONT WILL BRING STEADY RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THIS
COULD BE A SOAKER. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THE RISK
IT TO LOW TO EVEN UP VCTS AT THIS POINT. MOSTLY JUST RAIN...LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG BY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 746 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
BASED ON HIGHER DEW POINTS MOVING OVER COLD LAKE MICHIGAN WATERS
AND THE HRRR SHOWING FOG BECOMING EXTENSIVE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
TODAY I ADDED FOG TO THE NEAR SHORE WEATHER GRIDS. CURRENT WEB
CANS DO NOT SHOW MUCH FOG YET BUT I DO BELIEVE WE WILL SEE THE FOG
DEVELOP OVER TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2015
NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. 5-DAY QPF THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IS IN THE 1.50 TO
2.00 INCH RANGE...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS CHARACTERIZED BY A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND EASTERN CONUS RIDGE. LOWER MICHIGAN
IS ALREADY POSITIONED WITHIN A FAVORABLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY PUSHING 60
DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. A MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
PROPAGATE NORTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS. THE FINAL MAIN COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH MONDAY...WHEN STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
THERE IS A RISK FOR FLOODING THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY BEGINNING MONDAY IF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL IN A RELATIVELY SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. RIVER
LEVEL RISES ARE CERTAINLY EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
726 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED SW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM
THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...A
COLD FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN WI FROM
LOW PRES OVER NW ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL CONV NEAR THE
FRONT AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NW WI
SUPPORTED SCT/ISOLD SHRA INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI. WITH NIGHTTIME
COOLING...THE CONVECTION HAD WEAKENED ENOUGH SO THAT NO LIGHTNING WAS
OBSERVED OVER THE REGION.
TODAY...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE EAST AS THE LOW MOVES
TOWARD JAMES BAY. MODELS AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT SCT/ISOLD
SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH WRN UPPER MI. EXPECT
HIGHER SHRA/TSRA CHANCES OVER THE CNTRL AND EAST...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING
WITH THE POTENTIAL TO INTERACT WITH LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES. WITH
MLCAPE VALUES OF ONLY 400-800 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30-35
KNOTS...CONDITIONS WILL MARGINAL FOR ANY STRONGER STORMS. THERE IS
ALSO STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AMOUNT CLOUD COVER AND
HEATING/INSTABILITY.
TONIGHT...AFTER THE SHRA/TSRA MOVE OUT OF THE ERN CWA DURING THE
EVENING...EXPECT DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE CONTINUED
TREND OF KEEPING SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF UPPER MI. SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES OR PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY
DEVELOP LATE NORTH CENTRAL WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
PERIOD OF CYCLONIC NNE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE LONGER TERM FOCUS ON COVERAGE OF LO CLDS
ON SAT/SAT NGT AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A WELCOME WDSPRD PCPN
EVENT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE CLOSED LO NOW OVER THE DESERT SW AND
ACCOMPANYING SFC LO PRES LIFT NE TOWARD THE UPR LKS. MUCH COOLER WX
WL DOMINATE UPR MI DURING MOST OF THE LONGER TERM.
SAT...SINCE THE UPR FLOW IS FCST TO REMAIN SW BTWN MEAN RDG OVER THE
SE CONUS AND GENERAL TROFFING IN CENTRAL NAMERICA...THE COLD FNT
ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING SFC LO IN QUEBEC IS PROGGED TO STALL OVER
THE LOWER GRT LKS. SOME RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN A LO PRES
RIDING ALONG THIS BNDRY AND BRINGING SOME PCPN TO MAINLY THE SE
CWA...BUT THE BULK OF THE LATEST RUNS NOW INDICATE THIS LO/PCPN WL
REMAIN TO THE SE OF UPR MI. DESPITE THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MID LVL
DRYING...LINGERING LLVL MSTR IN NE FLOW ON THE SE FLANK OF SFC HI
PRES OVER SCENTRAL CANADA WL LIKELY BRING SOME LO CLDS OVER THE
NCENTRAL AND E. PER THE 00Z NAM/CNDN FCST...DID MAINTAIN A MENTION
OF SOME SPRINKLES OVER THE NCENTRAL WHERE UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT WL
BE MAXIMIZED. WITH LLVL NE FLOW OFF THE CHILLY LK WATERS...HI TEMPS
NEAR LK SUP IN THIS AREA WL BE HARD PRESSED TO GET OUT OF THE 40S.
WITH MORE SUNSHINE OVER THE W AND SCENTRAL...HI TEMPS SHOULD APRCH
60 WITH MIXING TO H85 ON FCST SDNGS.
SAT NGT...HI PRES IN SCENTRAL CANADA IS FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY E INTO
FAR NW ONTARIO WHILE CLOSED LO LIFTING OUT OF THE DESERT SW CAUSES
SFC LO PRES IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO BEGIN SHIFTING NEWD. AS THE
LLVL FLOW OVER THE UPR LKS BEGINS TO VEER A BIT IN THE PRESENCE OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING...THE SC IMPACTING THE NCENTRAL AND E MAY TEND TO
DRIFT TOWARD THE W AND OVERSPREAD ALL BUT THE W WHERE THE LLVL ENE
FLOW DOWNSLOPES BY 12Z SUN. SOME HI CLDS WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE
CLOSED LO/SFC LO PRES MAY REACH THE WRN CWA BY DAYBREAK ON SUN.
SUN...ALTHOUGH CONTINUED VEERING LLVL FLOW TOWARD THE E WOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME LLVL MSTR/AT LEAST BKN LO CLDS TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE CWA...
SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW SOME LLVL DRYING ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE HI
IN FAR NW ONTARIO SUFFICIENT TO BREAK UP THIS CLD EXCEPT OVER THE
SCNTRAL. EVEN IF/WHERE THIS SC IS ABSENT...MID/HI CLDS WL BE INCRSG
IN DIFFLUENT UPR FLOW/INCRSG ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF CLOSED
LO MOVING NEWD THRU THE PLAINS. WITH ARRIVAL OF MORE VIGOROUS DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC IN THE AFTN...MOST OF THE MODELS DO
GENERATE SOME PCPN OVER AT LEAST THE WRN CWA IN THE AFTN...SO WL
MAINTAIN FCST HIER CHC POPS IN THAT AREA.
SUN NGT THRU TUE...AS NEGATIVELTY TILTED CLOSED LO OPENS UP AND
LIFTS ENEWD INTO THE UPR LKS BY TUE...SFC LO PRES IS PROGGED TO MOVE
ENEWD FM SE SDAKOTA ON SUN EVNG INTO WI BY LATE MON AND THEN INTO SE
ONTARIO BY TUE MRNG. THE TRACK OF THESE FEATURES AND ACCOMPANYING
DYNAMIC FORCING/DIFFLUENT UPR FLOW/DEEP CYC FLOW/PWAT AOA 1 INCH
INDICATE THERE WL BE AT LEAST PERIODS OF RA. IF THE UPR LO DRIFTS A
BIT FARTHER TO THE N...BREAKS IN THE PCPN WOULD BE MORE LIKELY
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN TIER. ON THE OTHER HAND...IF THE UPR LO
TRACKS A BIT FARTHER TO THE S...A MORE PERSISTENT CCB WOULD BRING
ABOUT MORE CONTINUOUS PCPN. THE LATEST CPC HAZARDS CHART INDICATES A
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RA OVER THE ENTIRE CWA. DID INTRODUCE A
SCHC OF TS OVER THE FAR SCENTRAL SUN NGT INTO MON AS THE 00Z ECMWF
SHOWS A BIT FARTHER N TRACK OF THE UPR LO/HIER INSTABILITY OVER THAT
AREA. AS THE SFC LO EXITS TO THE E ON TUE...THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER
AIR WITH H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -5C MAY ALLOW THE PCPN TO MIX WITH SN
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NCNTRL AND W BEFORE THE EXIT
OF THE FORCING/ARRIVAL OF MORE ACYC FLOW CAUSES THE PCPN TO DIMINISH
LATER IN THE DAY. SINCE THE COLDER AIR WL ARRIVE AFTER 12Z
TUE...DAYTIME INSOLATION SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTAIL FOR MUCH IF ANY
SN ACCUM EXCEPT PERHAPS ON GRASSY SFCS.
WED/THU...CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME APRNT DURING THIS
LATER PORTION OF THE FCST. THE 00Z GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
MAINTAINING A LARGER SCALE TROF/COLDER AIR THRU WED...THEN SHOWS AN
UPR RDG/DRIER AIR DOMINATING THE AREA ON THU. THE 00Z ECMWF ON THE
OTHER HAND SHOWS BUILDING HGTS MUCH FASTER ON WED...AND THEN BRINGS
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/SOME PCPN TOWARD THE AREA ON THU. WL RELY ON THE
MODEL CONSENSUS FCST THIS FAR OUT IN THE FCST PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
EXPECT AN EXTENSVIE AREA OF IFR CIGS BEHIND A COLD FRONT...INCLUDING
IWD/CMX TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED BY LATE THIS EVENING.
AT SAW...LAKE BREEZE AND COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGE SOME MVFR CIGS AND
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING THIS EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY...WINDS WILL
BECOME NW TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AREAS OF FOG WILL FORM
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AS PRECIPITATION FALLS INTO THE ALREADY MOIST AIR
BELOW A STRONG INVERSION. AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE UPPER LAKES FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST. SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
909 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 909 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015
INHERITED FORECAST LOOKING GOOD. ALLOWED THE FROST ADVISORY TO
EXPIRE EARLIER WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE INCREASE. OTHERWISE PARTLY
SUNNY AND DRY TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. PRECIPITATION STARTS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
WEST THIS AFTERNOON...HUNDRETH AT BEST BUT MORE LIKELY TRACE
AMOUNTS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. LATEST HOURLY TEMPS DROPPED A DEGREE OR
TWO MOST LOCATIONS...NEAR 30 NORTH AND LOW/MID 30S ELSEWHERE.
FROST ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 8 AM CDT. NO CHANGES MADE OTHER
THAN BLENDING TO LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015
MAIN HIGHLIGHT IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD IS THE ONGOING FROST
ADVISORY. CLOUDS VARYING BETWEEN PARTLY CLOUDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE RESIDING IN THE
NORTHWEST WITH MID 30S WHICH IS LIKELY RESULTING IN AREAS OF
FROST. WILL LET THE ADVISORY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT
UPDATE CYCLE. WILL STILL MENTION AN ISOLATED SHOWER THROUGH 12Z
IN THE EAST CENTRAL ZONES AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRANSITIONS INTO
THIS AREA. THE HRRR AND NMM WEST STILL SHOW A THREAT FOR THIS.
FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...MAIN HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE
INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION/RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION
AREAS OF FROST WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE OF
THE PRECIPITATION AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE INTO IDAHO.
FURTHER DOWNSTREAM INTO NORTH DAKOTA...A CONSOLIDATED SOUTHWEST
FLOW WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES SHIFTING THROUGH GENERATING
MID LEVEL CLOUDS. EXPECTING A DRY DAY TODAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
PEELING OFF THE UPPER LOW MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE SLIDES INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 06Z SATURDAY. WITH THE DEFORMATION
ZONE/POOLING OF MOISTURE IN PLACE...INCREASED VERTICAL MOTION OVER
THIS AREA PER 850-300MB OMEGA FIELD/DIFFERENTIAL POSITIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT.
VERTICAL MOTION WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF A 90KT/300MB JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO
SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN AND NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THE RESULT WILL
BE FOR SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWEST AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXTENDING
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN INVOLVES DEEP STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY LIFTING
FROM 4 CORNERS REGION SATURDAY MORNING TO SOUTH DAKOTA BY 00Z
MONDAY. 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE SHIFTED FARTHER NORTH WITH
SYSTEM WITH PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ND NOW LOOKING AT POSSIBLE
ACCUMULATING SNOW...MAINLY ON SUNDAY. NAM REMAINS A BIT OF AN
OUTLIER...NOT AS FAR NORTH WITH QPF...THOUGH GFS/NAM/SREF ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT. GFS DEPICTS 850MB TEMPS AROUND -2C FROM
SOUTHWEST THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL ND BY 18Z SUNDAY COINCIDENT WITH
BROAD AREA OF STRONG 700MB FRONTOGENESIS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. WPC
WINTER WEATHER DESK DEPICTS AREA OF 6 INCHES PLUS ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHWEST FOR DAY 3 /SUNDAY/ WITH THE MAIN BULLSEYE FOR HEAVIEST
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SURFACE TEMPS
NEAR/ABOVE FREEZING MAY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS. NO HEADLINES PLANNED
AT THIS TIME THOUGH THEY MAY BE NEEDED IF MODELS MAINTAIN
CONSISTENCY WITH FUTURE RUNS. FOR NOW WILL ISSUE SPS TO HIGHLIGHT
POTENTIAL STORM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015
KJMS WILL BE ON THE FRINGES OF LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS UNTIL 21Z
FRIDAY. ALL OTHER TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH SCT/BKN CIGS
BETWEEN 4000FT AND 12000FT. MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH -SHRA ARRIVE AT
KDIK FROM 06Z-12Z SATURDAY. SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY AT KBIS BETWEEN
BY 10Z SATURDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JNS
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
621 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. LATEST HOURLY TEMPS DROPPED A DEGREE OR
TWO MOST LOCATIONS...NEAR 30 NORTH AND LOW/MID 30S ELSEWHERE.
FROST ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 8 AM CDT. NO CHANGES MADE OTHER
THAN BLENDING TO LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015
MAIN HIGHLIGHT IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD IS THE ONGOING FROST
ADVISORY. CLOUDS VARYING BETWEEN PARTLY CLOUDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE RESIDING IN THE
NORTHWEST WITH MID 30S WHICH IS LIKELY RESULTING IN AREAS OF
FROST. WILL LET THE ADVISORY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT
UPDATE CYCLE. WILL STILL MENTION AN ISOLATED SHOWER THROUGH 12Z
IN THE EAST CENTRAL ZONES AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRANSITIONS INTO
THIS AREA. THE HRRR AND NMM WEST STILL SHOW A THREAT FOR THIS.
FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...MAIN HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE
INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION/RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION
AREAS OF FROST WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE OF
THE PRECIPITATION AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE INTO IDAHO.
FURTHER DOWNSTREAM INTO NORTH DAKOTA...A CONSOLIDATED SOUTHWEST
FLOW WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES SHIFTING THROUGH GENERATING
MID LEVEL CLOUDS. EXPECTING A DRY DAY TODAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
PEELING OFF THE UPPER LOW MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE SLIDES INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 06Z SATURDAY. WITH THE DEFORMATION
ZONE/POOLING OF MOISTURE IN PLACE...INCREASED VERTICAL MOTION OVER
THIS AREA PER 850-300MB OMEGA FIELD/DIFFERENTIAL POSITIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT.
VERTICAL MOTION WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF A 90KT/300MB JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO
SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN AND NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THE RESULT WILL
BE FOR SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWEST AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXTENDING
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN INVOLVES DEEP STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY LIFTING
FROM 4 CORNERS REGION SATURDAY MORNING TO SOUTH DAKOTA BY 00Z
MONDAY. 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE SHIFTED FARTHER NORTH WITH
SYSTEM WITH PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ND NOW LOOKING AT POSSIBLE
ACCUMULATING SNOW...MAINLY ON SUNDAY. NAM REMAINS A BIT OF AN
OUTLIER...NOT AS FAR NORTH WITH QPF...THOUGH GFS/NAM/SREF ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT. GFS DEPICTS 850MB TEMPS AROUND -2C FROM
SOUTHWEST THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL ND BY 18Z SUNDAY COINCIDENT WITH
BROAD AREA OF STRONG 700MB FRONTOGENESIS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. WPC
WINTER WEATHER DESK DEPICTS AREA OF 6 INCHES PLUS ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHWEST FOR DAY 3 /SUNDAY/ WITH THE MAIN BULLSEYE FOR HEAVIEST
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SURFACE TEMPS
NEAR/ABOVE FREEZING MAY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS. NO HEADLINES PLANNED
AT THIS TIME THOUGH THEY MAY BE NEEDED IF MODELS MAINTAIN
CONSISTENCY WITH FUTURE RUNS. FOR NOW WILL ISSUE SPS TO HIGHLIGHT
POTENTIAL STORM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015
KJMS WILL BE ON THE FRINGES OF LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS UNTIL 21Z
FRIDAY. ALL OTHER TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH SCT/BKN CIGS
BETWEEN 4000FT AND 12000FT. MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH -SHRA ARRIVE AT
KDIK FROM 06Z-12Z SATURDAY. SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY AT KBIS BETWEEN
BY 10Z SATURDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT /7 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-031>036-040>044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JNS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JNS
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
954 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND THEN STALL NEAR LAKE ERIE
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN AREA OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...NO BIG CHANGES FOR THE MORNING UPDATE.
ORIGINAL...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING. ANOTHER WARM
SUMMER LIKE DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA. A COUPLE OF RECORD HIGHS
WILL BE CHALLENGED OR BROKEN TODAY. 850 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
BE JUST A TAD COOLER THAN THURSDAY. BUT GIVEN A WARMER START
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS VALUES INLAND
AREAS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT TO KEEP THE
LAKE BREEZE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE TODAY SO PLACES LIKE
KBKL AND KERI SHOULD BE A HANDFUL OF DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY ARE NOT AS HIGH AS PROGGED BY THE
GUIDANCE BUT SHOULD COME UP SOME TODAY. REALLY NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF FORCING TODAY BUT SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
COULD KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS OR STORMS OVER FAR NW OHIO. A FEW
STORMS COULD ALSO FIRE ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY EAST OF KCLE
LATER TODAY. SOME OF NEWER GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR PICK
UP ON THAT SCENARIO. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ALREADY HAD A MENTION
SO WILL STICK WITH IT FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO
INCH TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THIS
HAPPENS PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
VERY LITTLE SHEAR AND UPPER SUPPORT EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND SO
NO ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERED IN NATURE. RIGHT NOW IT
APPEARS BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL PROBABLY NOT COME
TILL LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TILL THEN WILL NEED MAINLY LIKELY
POPS IN NW OHIO WITH NO MORE THAN CHANCE OF SCATTERED WORDING
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. IT`S STILL TOUGH TO TELL IF THE
FRONT WILL MAKE IT ACROSS THE LAKE BEFORE IT STALLS ON SUNDAY. THE
NEW GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW AN AREA OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHERN LAKES ON MONDAY CAUSING THE FRONT TO LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH. AS THIS HAPPENS THE LOCAL AREA COULD SEE A 12 TO 18 HOUR
PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP MENTIONED
ABOVE WILL COME AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FINALLY APPROACHES LATE
IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. IT HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY SO FAR THIS MONTH
BUT THINK MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF
PRECIP THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A GOOD 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS TRACK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE EASTERN
LAKES TUESDAY...THEN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON WEDNESDAY. BEHIND
THE FRONT MUCH COLDER AIR SPILLS OVER THE AREA. GFS CONTINUES TO BE
MUCH COLDER THAN THE LATEST ECMWF. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING THE GFS
850 MB TEMPERATURES PLUNGE TO -4C WHILE THE ECMWF ONLY TO +4C. FOR
NOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIT THE DIFFERENCE ON THE TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. MAY SEE SOME TSRA EXTREME NW OHIO LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES UP AROUND 1500 J/KG. BUT WITH STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER AREA STILL HAVE DOUBTS SO FOR TAFS JUST
WENT WITH VCTS NW OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GRADIENT BORDERLINE
FOR LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. IF IT DOES WILL BE FROM
CLE EAST.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AS A FRONT APPROACHES LATE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. NON VFR AS WELL ON MONDAY WITH THE FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTH FLOW OVER THE LAKE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
652 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND THEN STALL NEAR LAKE ERIE
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN AREA OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING. ANOTHER WARM SUMMER LIKE
DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA. A COUPLE OF RECORD HIGHS WILL BE
CHALLENGED OR BROKEN TODAY. 850 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE JUST A
TAD COOLER THAN THURSDAY. BUT GIVEN A WARMER START EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS VALUES INLAND AREAS. THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT TO KEEP THE LAKE BREEZE
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE TODAY SO PLACES LIKE KBKL AND KERI
SHOULD BE A HANDFUL OF DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY ARE NOT AS HIGH AS PROGGED BY THE GUIDANCE BUT
SHOULD COME UP SOME TODAY. REALLY NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
TODAY BUT SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE COULD KICK OFF
SOME SHOWERS OR STORMS OVER FAR NW OHIO. A FEW STORMS COULD ALSO FIRE
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY EAST OF KCLE LATER TODAY. SOME OF
NEWER GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR PICK UP ON THAT
SCENARIO. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ALREADY HAD A MENTION SO WILL
STICK WITH IT FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO
INCH TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THIS
HAPPENS PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
VERY LITTLE SHEAR AND UPPER SUPPORT EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND SO
NO ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERED IN NATURE. RIGHT NOW IT
APPEARS BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL PROBABLY NOT COME
TILL LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TILL THEN WILL NEED MAINLY LIKELY
POPS IN NW OHIO WITH NO MORE THAN CHANCE OF SCATTERED WORDING
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. IT`S STILL TOUGH TO TELL IF THE
FRONT WILL MAKE IT ACROSS THE LAKE BEFORE IT STALLS ON SUNDAY. THE
NEW GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW AN AREA OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHERN LAKES ON MONDAY CAUSING THE FRONT TO LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH. AS THIS HAPPENS THE LOCAL AREA COULD SEE A 12 TO 18 HOUR
PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP MENTIONED
ABOVE WILL COME AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FINALLY APPROACHES LATE
IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. IT HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY SO FAR THIS MONTH
BUT THINK MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF
PRECIP THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A GOOD 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS TRACK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE EASTERN
LAKES TUESDAY...THEN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON WEDNESDAY. BEHIND
THE FRONT MUCH COLDER AIR SPILLS OVER THE AREA. GFS CONTINUES TO BE
MUCH COLDER THAN THE LATEST ECMWF. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING THE GFS
850 MB TEMPERATURES PLUNGE TO -4C WHILE THE ECMWF ONLY TO +4C. FOR
NOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIT THE DIFFERENCE ON THE TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. MAY SEE SOME TSRA EXTREME NW OHIO LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES UP AROUND 1500 J/KG. BUT WITH STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER AREA STILL HAVE DOUBTS SO FOR TAFS JUST
WENT WITH VCTS NW OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GRADIENT BORDERLINE
FOR LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. IF IT DOES WILL BE FROM
CLE EAST.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AS A FRONT APPROACHES LATE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. NON VFR AS WELL ON MONDAY WITH THE FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTH FLOW OVER THE LAKE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1043 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015
.DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER APPEARS TO BE REDUCING THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TODAY.
THAT DOES NOT SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THE GRIDDED FORECAST...BUT
THERE MAY BE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOKS
LATER THIS MORNING.
THE SAME CLOUD COVER HAS SLOWED HEATING ACROSS MUCH OF
OKLAHOMA...AND WE WILL ADJUST THE HOURLY GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.
ADDITIONAL UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE DAY AS THE EVOLUTION
OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS BECOMES MORE APPARENT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015/
DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER RATHER COMPLICATED SITUATION WITH REGARDS TO
CONVECTION AND ATTENDANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT... AS WELL AS
ADDITIONAL HEAVY... POSSIBLY FLOODING RAINFALL. WILL ALSO HAVE
SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEAL WITH FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING.
MANY OF THE MODELS DEPICT MORNING CONVECTION DEVELOPING AS LIFT
BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AHEAD OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER
THE MODELS DIFFER IN THEIR PLACEMENT OF THIS CONVECTION THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. THEY ALSO DIFFER IN HOW TO HANDLE RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. MAIN BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING SHOULD RESIDE TO OUR SOUTH... BUT WOULD EXPECT IT TO TRY
TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASING
LATER THIS MORNING.
LATEST NAM/GFS DEPICT BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK TO NEAR I-40 CORRIDOR
BY AFTN. FOLLOWING THIS SCENARIO... WHICH ALSO KEEPS MUCH OF THE
MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...WOULD AID IN
REINFORCING SURFACE BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF
THE I-40 CORRIDOR BY THIS AFTN... ALTHOUGH OTHER BOUNDARIES WILL
LIKELY BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD LIMIT
INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA... SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WOULD REMAIN
IN THE MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE AFTN INTO THE EVENING.
THIS WILL BE THE MORE LIKELY AREA FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT STORMS...
INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL... DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES THIS
AFTN AND EVENING.
LATEST FEW RUNS OF HRRR GIVE A DIFFERENT SCENARIO THIS MORNING.
THIS MODEL HAS MORE OF A COMPLEX OF STORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY
DURING THE DAY. THIS WOULD LIKELY BE THE MAIN SHOW FOR THE DAY AND
ANY ATTENDANT SEVERE WOULD LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COMPLEX
OF STORMS... MUCH LIKE WHAT OCCURRED ON THURSDAY. EITHER SCENARIO
WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA SOUTH INTO NORTH
TEXAS WOULD BE THE FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
STORMS.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT. WE THEN SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER DAY OF SEVERE
WEATHER ON SATURDAY. MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING OUT
INTO THE PLAINS BY SAT AFTN AND EVENING. MODELS ARE AGAIN SHOWING
SOME MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE AREA AS LIFT BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE AREA AHEAD OF
MAIN TROUGH. THINK THAT THIS SHOULD PROGRESS EAST QUICK ENOUGH
THAT ATMOSPHERE SHOULD RECOVER/DESTABILIZE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
DRYLINE BY SAT AFTN ACROSS THE EASTERN OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. THE COMBINATION OF EXPECTED
INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE WIND FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE AREAS SAT AFTN
CAPABLE OF TORNADOES/VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. THESE STORMS
WILL THEN MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
PERHAPS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TOWARD THE I-35 CORRIDOR DURING THE
EVENING HOURS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH AND EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. AS THIS OCCURS... A COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH INTO THE
AREA AND WILL AGAIN BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS... SOME SEVERE
SUNDAY AFTN MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-44.
ALL THROUGH THIS TIME WILL BE ADDING TO THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN THROUGH MOTHER`S DAY
WEEKEND. WILL CONT WITH THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH THAT GOES THROUGH
THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
SHOULD SEE A DAY OR TWO OF MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER TO BEGIN NEXT
WEEK BEFORE MOISTURE BEGINS TO PULL BACK NORTH AND PRECIP CHANCES
RETURN TO THE AREA. RIGHT NOW ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBILITIES LOOK LOW AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK REMAIN MILD... BUT MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL
LINGER.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 78 63 77 63 / 60 70 70 40
HOBART OK 77 63 78 57 / 70 40 60 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 80 66 80 63 / 70 40 60 30
GAGE OK 76 59 78 51 / 50 50 60 20
PONCA CITY OK 79 63 77 63 / 50 70 70 50
DURANT OK 81 67 79 66 / 40 60 60 70
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR OKZ006>008-011>013-
015>048-050>052.
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
23/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
952 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CHANGES FOR THE MORNING UPDATE WERE TO BUMP UP POPS ACROSS
THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING AS W/V IMAGERY SHOWING
IMPULSE APPROACHING BIG BEND AREA MAY TAKE A TRACK MORE FAVORABLE
IN PRODUCING PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA AS HRRR AND TX TECH WRF
DEPICTS. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS. ALSO EXTENDED THE CAUTION
FLAGS FOR THE 20-60NM GULF WATERS. OTHERWISE...REST OF THE
PACKAGE LEFT ABOUT THE SAME. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 86 73 86 74 85 / 40 40 30 30 50
HOUSTON (IAH) 86 74 85 75 86 / 20 40 20 20 40
GALVESTON (GLS) 83 76 83 76 83 / 20 40 20 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
647 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015
.AVIATION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. MVFR/IFR CIGS HAVE SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. SLOW IMPROVEMENT THIS MORNING TO VFR BY AROUND NOON. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING...BUT PROBABILITY
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. IF THERE IS ANY RAIN IT WILL
NOT CHANGE FLYING CATEGORY. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND LOW CIGS SHOULD REFORM DROPPING CIGS TO
MVFR AND IFR OVERNIGHT AGAIN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR TODAY WILL BE THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR TOWARDS THE HILL
COUNTRY...EDWARDS PLATEAU AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION IS MEDIUM GIVEN WIDE ASSORTMENT OF HI-RES GUIDANCE.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FOR TODAY...THE WELL ADVERTISED CLOSED H5 LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA
WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND ALONG WITH EMBEDDED
IMPULSES STREAMING OUT OF NORTH MEXICO WILL AID IN A H5-H3 WIND
BELT INCREASE TOWARDS 50 TO 70KT RESPECTIVELY. WHILE THE BEST
FORCING AND DRYLINE BULGE WILL BE NORTH OF THE REGION...MODEST
INSTABILITY NEARING 3000 J/KG WITH A WEAK CAP AND IMPRESSIVE
VERTICAL TOTALS /29-31C/ SHOULD AT LEAST SUPPORT SOME ROBUST
UPDRAFTS. LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS
TO 60 MPH WILL BE HAZARDS OF THESE STORMS. THE HRRR HAS BEEN
INCONSISTENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ALONG WITH THE ARW/NMM
THAT WERE ALSO HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING STORMS YESTERDAY AT
THIS TIME. HAVE NOT PLACED MUCH STOCK IN THE OVER-DONE ARW/NMM
WITH SLIGHT WEIGHT TOWARDS HRRR. YET...EVEN IT DOES NOT READILY
SEEM TO FIT ENVIRONMENT CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR THIS AFTERNOON. FEEL
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND LONGER ALONG I-35
AND EAST WITH MORE CLEARING WITH GROWING AND STRONGER
DESTABILIZATION OUT WEST. GFS DOES PROG A WEAK S/WV TO SHIFT OVER
THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT SEE IT CREATING
STRATIFORM PRECIP AS THE HRRR SUGGESTS. GIVEN GFS/NAM SOUNDING
PROFILES SUPPORTING MORE OF A CONVECTIVE MODE...FEEL A MULTI-CELL
OR UPGROWTH INTO SOME LINEAR LINE SEGMENT COULD BE POSSIBLE OUT
WEST AND SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AND THEN NORTH OF
THE REGION. SPC SSEO AND NCAR ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO INCONSISTENT
AMONG THE MEMBERS. THE OVERALL SIGNAL DEPICTS INITIAL DEVELOPMENT
OUT WEST LATE AFTERNOON WITH CONSOLIDATION ACTUALLY NEAR THE 35
CORRIDOR AND NEAR SAN ANTONIO. WHILE POSSIBLE...FEEL MORE
SUPPORTIVE AREA WILL BE NORTH AND WEST. SOME ADDITIONAL TSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH CELLS
POSSIBLY CONTINUING NE OUT OF MEXICO BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD
DECREASE.
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE DRYLINE WILL HAVE SHIFTED FARTHER EAST
INTO THE REGION AND INCREASE STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL
FARTHER EAST THAN TODAY. A DECREASE IN STORM POTENTIAL WILL ALSO
OCCUR BEHIND THE DRYLINE FOR FAR WESTERN AREAS. NEAR 2000-2500
J/KG CAPE VALUES AND 45-50 KT 0-6KM SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS THAT COULD AGAIN CONTAIN HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.
0-3KM HELICITY VALUES PER GFS MAY APPROACH 200-250 M2/S2 AND WITH
0-1KM SRH NEAR 150 MS/S2...STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD ROTATE AND
A TORNADO CAN NOT BE FULLY RULED OUT. AGAIN...THE WINDOW FOR
STRONGEST STORMS WILL LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING FOR AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF US HIGHWAY 83. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL MORPH FROM
STRONGER CONVECTION TOWARDS MORE STRATIFORM THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING NEAR THE HILL COUNTRY AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE OF
CONCERN. SEE LONG TERM BELOW FOR CONTINUED MENTION OF THIS IMPACT
PERIOD.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
QUITE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ALL
OF NEXT WEEK WITH LIKELY MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS. BOTH GFS/EC MODELS AGREE
WIDESPREAD TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS TO 6-7"+ COULD BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
ELEVATED RIVER/CREEKS AND FLASH FLOODING COULD OCCUR IF CERTAIN
RAIN CLUSTERS DEVELOP JUST RIGHT.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE AREA REMAINS IN DEEP SW FLOW
ALOFT AS ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH SPOKE PIVOTS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS...ACTING TO ENHANCE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. PWATS REMAIN HIGH
/1.5-1.7"/ AND WILL SUPPORT LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS THROUGH THE
DAY AND EVENING. HEAVIEST RAINFALL COULD OCCUR ACROSS HILL COUNTRY
AND POINTS NORTH TO NE AND COULD INCLUDE AUSTIN METRO. SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE EAST OF I-35 BUT
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN AFTERNOON
DEVELOPMENT.
A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS STILL EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH TOWARDS THE
REGION BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BUT THIS WILL ONLY SERVE AS ANOTHER
FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT AS SW FLOW AND TROUGHING
CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY FOR ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCHES POSSIBLY BEING NEEDED. BY
TUESDAY...THE FIRST LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE GREAT PLAINS
BUT THE ACTIVE SOUTHERN JET STREAM BRANCH CONTINUES AND IS EVEN
REPLACED BY ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH ON THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY AND
YET ANOTHER BY LATE NEXT WEEK. PLEASE STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE
LATEST THROUGH THE WEEK AS QUICKLY ACCUMULATING RAINFALL TOTALS
COULD LEAD TO FLOODING IMPACTS. /ALLEN/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 85 72 86 73 83 / 40 30 40 30 60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 85 73 87 73 84 / 40 30 40 30 60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 85 71 87 73 84 / 30 30 40 20 50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 83 70 83 70 80 / 50 30 50 50 70
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 91 72 92 72 88 / 30 40 20 20 40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 83 72 84 72 82 / 40 30 50 30 70
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 88 71 88 73 86 / 30 40 40 20 50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 86 72 87 73 83 / 30 30 40 20 50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 86 75 86 75 85 / 30 30 30 20 40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 86 72 87 73 84 / 30 30 40 20 50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 87 72 88 73 85 / 30 30 30 20 50
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
534 AM MDT FRI MAY 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT FRI MAY 8 2015
IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...FOR THIS MORNING WE HAVE ISSUED A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR THE CHEYENNE TO LARAMIE STRETCH ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG FORMING IN THE
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW THAT WILL LINGER INTO THE MID MORNING
HOURS. LESS DENSE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING BACK TOWARDS THE CHEYENNE
AREA HERE SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK...AND WE WILL CLOSELY MONITOR
TRAFFIC CAMS AND OBSERVATIONS FOR POTENTIAL OF EXPANDING THAT
ADVISORY FARTHER EAST THROUGH CHEYENNE.
OTHERWISE...WE ARE GETTING A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EARLY TO MID MORNING. HRRR (WHICH DID FAIRLY WELL YESTERDAY
WITH PRECIP AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
ACROSS OUR WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS) IS AGAIN SHOWING DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE...SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES IN THE
MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS...AND MOVING THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS IS THE
GENERAL BASIS OF OUR POP FORECAST TODAY...SPREADING SHOWERS
NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH TODAY WITH A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WHERE
SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY RESIDES TODAY. WITH STRONGER
CONVECTIVE BUILDUPS IN THE WEST TODAY...EXPECT A SWITCHOVER TO
SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 8000 FT AGAIN TODAY SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THOSE
AREAS WHERE TRAVEL MAY BECOME A LITTLE TRICKER THIS AFTERNOON
GOING INTO THE EVENING. /JG
ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO A WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
WINTER STORM POISED TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE CWA THIS WEEKEND. LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW SPINNING
OVER SOUTHERN CAL THIS AM. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TODAY...HELPING TO REINFORCE MOIST EAST-
TO-SOUTHEAST LLVL FLOW OVER THE PLAINS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED WARMER
OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...LIKELY DUE TO STRONG WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
OCCURRING IN THE LLVLS. IT APPEARS THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED AS WELL...WHICH SHOULD HELP
PREVENT ANY SUBSTANTIAL COLD AIR DAMMING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND
LIMIT THE RISK FOR AN EARLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW DOWN LOW. BUT...WE
ARE DEFINITELY CONCERNED ABOUT THE MOUNTAINS/ELEVATIONS ABOVE
8000 FEET LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT. SOUNDINGS OVER THE I80
SUMMIT ARE SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN SURFACE TEMPS TODAY...AND WERE
ALREADY A GOOD 5 DEGREES TOO WARM AT VDW AT 06Z. THAT
SAID...EXPECT IT TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW TONIGHT. COULD HAVE
SOME SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ALONG INTERSTATE 80 OVERNIGHT...SO WILL
KEEP THE START TIME AT 06Z SAT FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A WARNING JUST YET...AS OBS SHOW
A RATHER WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS TO OUR SOUTHEAST WHICH MAY
INHIBIT ACCUMULATING SNOW. WE ARE ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT A DRY SLOT
WHICH MAY WORK INTO THE AREA ON SAT MORNING GIVEN FAIRLY LOW
700-300 MB RH PROGS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. THIS DRY POCKET WAS
OBSERVED ON MORNING WATER VAPOR.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE NORTHERN TRACK OF THE STORM IS NOT EXPECTED TO
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF COLD AIR TO WORK WITH AS H7 TEMPS ARE ALREADY AROUND -10
DEG C OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT. EXPECT RAPID SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TO
ENSUE OVER EASTERN CO ON SAT...FORCING WINDS TO SHIFT TO A NORTH
OR NORTHEAST DIRECTION BY SAT NIGHT. GFS/NAM/ECM ARE IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT WITH GOOD COLD ADVECTION IN THE EVE AND OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL FORCE SNOW LEVELS TO DECLINE QUITE RAPIDLY. IN FACT...THE
LATEST SREF RUN SHOWS WBZ HEIGHTS BELOW GROUND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA (EXCEPT EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEAR KSNY) BY 06Z SUN. DURING THIS
TIME...VERTICAL ASCENT WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY TO THE WEST OF A
PRONOUNCED INVERTED TROUGH AXIS OVER CENTRAL NEB. GOOD INSTABILITY
WITHIN THE TROWAL REGION AND IMPRESSIVE MIDLVL FRONTOGENESIS WILL
SUPPORT MESOSCALE BANDING. NEGATIVE SHOWALTER INDICES HANG AROUND
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z SUN AS WELL...SO BONAFIDE CONVECTIVE SNOW IS
QUITE POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE THERMAL PROFILES REALLY
COOL DOWN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM ALL MODELS SHOW DEEP SATURATION
AS WELL...SO ALL SIGNS POINT TO SOME IMPRESSIVE PCPN TOTALS. GFS
AND ECM STILL SHOW WIDESPREAD 2-3 INCH QPF VALUES OVER THE SNOWIES
AND ALL AREAS ALONG/EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH 06Z MON. THE
NAM HAS SIMILAR VALUES...BUT FOCUSES THEM FARTHER EAST INTO THE
NEB PANHANDLE. THIS IS STILL THE OUTLIER.
PER COORDINATION WITH WPC AND NEIGHBORING WFOS...WE INCREASED SNOW
AMOUNTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH EXCELLENT UPSLOPE AND AMPLE
MOISTURE...EXPECT SOME BIG SNOW TOTALS IN THE MOUNTAINS. UPWARDS
OF TWO FEET IS NOW EXPECTED IN THE SNOWIES...BUT THERE IS QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THE SIERRA MADRES AS THEY COULD BE SHADOWED
BY THE SNOWY RANGE. QPF HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLY LOWER THERE. ENOUGH
SUPPORTING DATA TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...STARTING SAT MID AFTN. WPC
GUIDANCE SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD 10+ INCHES AT ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 4500 FEET...SO THIS SHOULD MATCH UP VERY WELL WITH NATIONAL
CENTERS. A WARMER AND GENERALLY DRIER AIR MASS WILL LINGER ALONG
THE I80 CORRIDOR IN NEBRASKA...SO DID NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR
THE TIME BEING. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS RE-EVALUATE. SNOW SHOULD
START TO PULL OUT BY LATE SUN AFTN OR EARLY EVE. WENT WELL BELOW
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WITH LINGERING PCPN AND THE
ANTICIPATION OF DEEP SNOWPACK. /CLH
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT FRI MAY 8 2015
BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LIFTING THE
OPENING UPPER LOW OUT TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA WITH DRIER/COLDER
AIR WORKING IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WE HAVE A
FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS (LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS)
PROJECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...THEN WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMUP
WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING WORKING WEST TO EAST ACROSS WYOMING AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH MIDWEEK. WE BRING IN SMALL CHANCES FOR
DIURNAL SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT FRI MAY 8 2015
UPSLOPE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WILL RESULT IN LOW
LIFR/IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES FOR CHEYENNE FOR MUCH OF TODAY
GOING INTO THIS EVENING. DONT EXPECT AS PROLONGED OF AN IFR PERIOD
FOR LARAMIE AND SIDNEY...BUT UPSLOPE FLOW THOSE AREAS WILL RESULT
IN PERIODS OF IFR THROUGH TODAY. WILL KEEP VCTS MENTION IN FOR
LARAMIE AND RAWLINS TODAY AS BETTER INSTABILITY RESIDES ACROSS THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR
SCOTTSBLUFF...CHADRON AND ALLIANCE FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON...WITH AN OVERALL DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS AS WE
GO INTO THIS EVENING AS LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION OVERSPREAD
MANY AREAS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT FRI MAY 8 2015
A STRONG WINTER STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND BRINGING PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW TO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. SNOW WILL
START IN THE MOUNTAINS LATER TODAY ABOVE 8000 FEET AND WILL
DEVELOP TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WARMER
AND DRIER WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR WYZ101-102-104>108-110-115-117>119.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR WYZ103-112-114-116.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR WYZ116-117.
NE...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NEZ002-003-019-020-095-096.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JG/CLH
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...JG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
230 PM MST FRI MAY 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A
FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF TUCSON. THEREAFTER...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA APPROACHES. MODELS KEEP THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. LATEST HRRR SOLUTION SHOWED A FEW SHOWERS FARTHER SOUTH
INTO PINAL AND PIMA COUNTIES. BASED ON RECENT TRENDS IN THE
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY...WILL INTRODUCE POP VALUES FARTHER
SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. OTHERWISE...WIND SPEEDS WILL TAPER
OFF LATER THIS EVENING MOST AREAS AS THE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH
NORTHERN ARIZONA. WILL KEEP SOME LINGER SHOWERS IN THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT DRY AND COOL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR ELSEWHERE. MODELS WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO NEAR
SEASONAL READINGS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 10/00Z. MAINLY SCT TO OCCASIONALLY BKN CLOUD
COVERAGE AT 4-7K FT AGL WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA. ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA PSBL MAINLY
NORTH OF KTUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AT KDUG AND KOLS WITH SPEEDS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KTS.
WINDS WILL BECOME GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER 09/06Z BEFORE
WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS SATURDAY AFTER 18Z. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET...
ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON. THIS...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
LOWER RH VALUES WILL RESULT IN SOME RED FLAG TO NEAR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF COCHISE COUNTY AND
SOUTHEASTERN GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES. MODERATE FUEL MOISTURE IN
COMBINATION WITH BORDERLINE RH VALUES WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL AND
SPOTTY RED FLAG CONDITIONS OVERALL. THE LOW PRESSURE RESULTING IN
THESE WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH OF TUCSON INTO THIS EVENING.
LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH A THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF TUCSON AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WARMER AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
405 PM MDT FRI MAY 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT FRI MAY 8 2015
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER LAS VEGAS MOVING SLOWLY
EASTWARD. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THERE HAVE BEEN A COUPLE OF
DISTINCT WAVES THAT ORGANIZED THE PRECIPITATION TODAY. ONE MOVED
BY EARLIER AND THE SECOND IS MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA RIGHT NOW. THERE IS SOME CLEARING BEHIND THE SECOND WAVE BUT
ALL MODELS HAVE ANOTHER WAVE OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE
MOVING NORTH FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE WAS
SEEN NICELY IN THE CIRA SYNTHETIC IMAGERY FROM THE NAM NEST
OVERLAID WITH SOME FORCING FIELDS ON AWIPS. WITH THIS EXPECT
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS SEEN IN
THE HRRR RUNS OF LATE AND INCREASED POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TO
LIKELY BEFORE DECREASING THEM AGAIN LATER TONIGHT FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE AS HIGH AS AN INCH OR SO IN SOME
AREAS BUT NO REAL FOCUS INDICATED AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT ANY
HYDROLOGY HIGHLIGHTS BEYOND WHAT HAS BEEN PUT OUT AT THIS TIME.
A VERY ACTIVE DAY IN STORE FOR SATURDAY WITH ALL KINDS OF WEATHER
ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN MOVING THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS REGION AND INTO
EASTERN COLORADO BY THE END OF THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING OF COURSE
A LARGE AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH IT...FIRST ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND THEN INTO EASTERN COLORADO BY THE AFTERNOON. THE 700
MB LOW INITIALLY STARTS OUT RATHER ELONGATED BUT THEN WITH RAPID
CYCLOGENESIS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS IT CONSOLIDATES NEAR LIMON
AFTER 00Z/SUNDAY. OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE DIVIDE UNTIL THE UPPER LOW PASSES BY SAT
NIGHT BUT WITH THE STRONG DYNAMICS SHOULD SEE SNOW INCREASE WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE DAY GOES ON. FOR NOW KEPT THE WATCH
AS IS BUT WOULD LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO HOIST A WARNING ALTHOUGH
LOWERED OVERALL AMOUNTS TO 8 TO 16 INCHES TOTAL. SOME ADDITIONAL
SNOW TONIGHT BUT MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE WITH SNOW LEVEL DOWN
TO AROUND 9000 FEET. ON THE PLAINS SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE
PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING THAT COULD
SET THE STAGE FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS THE SYSTEM REDEVELOPS EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS. BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WOULD LIKELY BE MORE TO THE
EASTERN PART OF THE PLAINS BUT COULD GET ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE
URBAN CORRIDOR. THEN UPSLOPE SHOULD INCREASE LATE WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. SNOW CHANCES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS COME LATER IN THE
PERIOD AS COLDER AIR COMES IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT FRI MAY 8 2015
STRONG UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO 00Z SUNDAY TO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA 12Z SUNDAY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY LINGER
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE PLAINS. AFTER THIS...A
DEFORMATION ZONE WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.
PRECIPITATION WILL START OFF AS RAIN...BUT QUICKLY TURN TO SNOW
SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS THE PLAINS. UNCERTAIN WHERE THIS ZONE WILL
FORM...BASED ON SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT STORM TRACKS. EXPECT MOST AREAS
TO SEE PERIOD OF SNOW...WITH A SMALL BAND OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL EAST OF I-25 BY SUNDAY MORNING.
RAIN AND SNOW WILL END SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION. IT WILL BE CLOUDY A COOL BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 40S. IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE IN THE MOUNTAINS
WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...FROST WILL
BE LIKELY MOST LOCATIONS AS SKIES PARTIALLY CLEAR. EXPECT LOW ACROSS
THE AREA TO BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE
AREA. STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. IT WILL BE COOL MONDAY BEHIND
THE EXITING LOW WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO.
ON TUESDAY...FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE 60S TUESDAY UNDER THE SOUTHWESTERLY. MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT IT
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
BUMP POPS UP INTO THE SCATTERED RANGE FOR THIS. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO WARM AS A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL KEEP A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THERE IS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY`S SYSTEM.
WILL BE TRICKY TO TIME THIS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE A WINDOW WHERE IT
WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA. ONCE THIS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA. EXPECTED SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
RETURN TO THE REGION. WILL GO WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH THE LOWER POPS ON THURSDAY WHEN THIS
RIDGE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT FRI MAY 8 2015
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE METRO AREA WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTH BY 22Z...SO SHOULD SEE CIGS/VSBYS IMPROVE
SIGNIFICANTLY AT THAT TIME. WL KEEP IFR/MVFR CIGS WITH THE TSTMS.
THE SE-ELY WINDS STILL PROGGED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS MAY RETURN LATER THIS EVENING. CIGS WL
LOWER AT THAT TIME...WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING AFTER
06Z. ENELY WINDS MAY INCREASE SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE SURFACE
LOW INTENSIFYING OVER SERN CO. STORM THAT DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY
MORNING/AFTN COULD BE STRONG...WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF DENVER.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT FRI MAY 8 2015
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE DENVER AREA
SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY SHIFT NORTHWARD. A FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FROM THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS EASTWARD DOWN THE SOUTH
PLATTE RIVER THROUGH 11 PM SUNDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ALL THE
CURRENT AND FUTURE RUNOFF OVER THE WEEKEND. STORMS/SHOWERS MAY
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT RAINFALL EXPECTED. ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS AS A
STRONGER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS COLORADO. STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN HIGH WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE IN
THE FOOTHILLS AND THE NORTHEAST PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR COZ033-034.
FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 11 PM MDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
MORGAN...CENTRAL LOGAN...JEFFERSON...SEDGWICK...WASHINGTON...
BROOMFIELD...EASTERN GILPIN...EASTERN LARIMER...ELBERT...DOUGLAS
..SOUTHEAST CLEAR CREEK...ADAMS...BOULDER...DENVER...ARAPAHOE AND
WELD COUNTIES.
$$
SHORT TERM...SZOKE
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...COOPER
HYDROLOGY...COOPER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
402 PM MDT FRI MAY 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT FRI MAY 8 2015
CURRENTLY...SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR WHERE STRATUS CLEARED EARLY...WITH LAPS
CAPES RUNNING OVER 2000 J/KG. 0-6KM SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING
CONVECTION...WITH 2 PERSISTENT SUPERCELLS SOUTH OF PUEBLO AS OF
2130Z. STRONGEST CONVECTION NEXT 1-3 HOURS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS
PUEBLO/LAS ANIMAS/CROWLEY/OTERO COUNTIES WHERE INSTABILITY IS
GREATEST...WITH HRRR KEEPING STRONG CONVECTION GOING OVER
SOUTHEAST PUEBLO COUNTY WELL INTO THE EVENING. FARTHER NORTH
AROUND COLORADO SPRINGS...CLOUDS AND EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAVE
HELD DOWN INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT....THOUGH STORMS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
PRODUCE VOLUMINOUS SMALL HAIL ONCE AGAIN. MOUNTAINS WILL SEE ONLY
ISOLATED STORMS...AND FAR EASTERN PLAINS NEAR THE KS BORDER LOOK
TOO STABLE FOR MUCH DEEP CONVECTION...AT LEAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
TONIGHT...CONVECTION ALONG I-25 CORRIDOR WILL CONTINUE PAST
SUNSET...WITH WEAKENING STORMS SHIFTING TOWARD THE KS BORDER
BY MIDNIGHT. SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHERN I-25
CORRIDOR...WITH TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 03Z LOOKING REASONABLE. MAY
SEE SOME SORT OF MCS LIFT OUT OF THE TX PANH SAT MORNING....AND
WILL INCREASE POPS OVER THE PLAINS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. LIFT INCREASES OVER CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS UPPER LOW
APPROACHES...WITH AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS
BY MORNING.
SATURDAY...STILL NOT A CLEAR CUT SOLUTION REGARDING POSITION OF
SURFACE LOW AND HOW FAR WEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. GFS/ECMWF LIFT SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT
NORTH OF THE PALMER DIVIDE BY AFTERNOON WITH DRYLINE PUNCHING INTO
KS BY SAT EVENING. LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE NAM KEEP THE SURFACE
LOW SOUTH OF KLHX UNTIL EARLY EVENING...WHICH KEEPS SURFACE AXIS
OF DEEP INSTABILITY/MOISTURE FARTHER WEST AND ALLOWS AT LEAST
SOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR TO WRAP BACK INTO PUEBLO/EL PASO
COUNTIES LATE. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER TERRAIN RESOLUTION NAM
AT THIS POINT AS CLIMATOLOGY SUPPORTS ITS SURFACE LOW POSITION
NEAR KLHX...AND POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ALONG THE KS
BORDER MAY PUSH MOIST AIR WESTWARD FOR A TIME SAT MORNING. IF
MOISTURE HOLDS IN PLACE...MASSIVE SHEAR (0-6KM SHEAR 60-70 KTS)
WILL LEAD TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WITH EVEN
SOME STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE BACK TOWARD PUEBLO AND COLORADO
SPRINGS AS STRONG LIFT WRAPS BACK AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
OVERALL...WILL KEEP POPS IN PLACE ALL DAY OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS...WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING AND A
SECOND ROUND OF STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. EASTERN MOUNTAINS/I-25
CORRIDOR WILL SEE A DRY PERIOD THROUGH THE MORNING AS WLY
DOWNSLOPE INCREASES...THEN AN INCREASING CHANCE OF PRECIP BY
AFTERNOON AS LOW LIFTS OUT AND STRONGER LIFT DEVELOPS UNDER THE
TROWAL. REMAINING MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS WILL SEE SCT TSRA...WITH
HEAVY SNOW OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS. KEPT WINTER STORM WATCH IN PLACE
FOR CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SAT...AND HOISTED A NEW WATCH FOR THE SUMMIT
OF PIKES PEAK WHERE 1 TO 2 FEET OF NEW SNOW LOOKS POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT FRI MAY 8 2015
...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LOW
WILL BE LOCATED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CO SAT EVENING...AND WILL QUICKLY
EJECT TO THE NE TO NEBRASKA SUN MORNING...THEN SOUTH DAKOTA SUN
NIGHT. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY SUBDUED ACROSS THE SE PLAINS SAT
NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES NE...BUT WRAPAROUND WILL START AFFECTING THE
PALMER DVD AND RAMPART RANGE. CATEGORICAL SHOWERS ARE FORECAST OVER
MONUMENT HILL SAT EVE...WITH DROPPING TEMPS SWITCHING THE PCPN OVER
TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. UP TO 2 INCHES OF NEW SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
MONUMENT HILL BY SUN MORNING...BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR TELLER COUNTY AND ESPECIALLY PIKES PEAK SO THE PEAK HAS BEEN
INCLUDED IN THE WINTER STORM WATCH. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES PULLING
AWAY LATE SUN...SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH.
LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60F FOR MOST AREAS ON
SUN...WITH OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TEMPORARY RIDGING OVER THE STATE MON WILL
GIVE WAY TO A SW FLOW ALOFT ON TUE. RESIDUAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
SPARK MORE SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY MON AFTN AND EVE...THEN AS THE
SW FLOW SETTLES IN FOR TUE A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN UP
ACROSS NM AND INTO COLORADO. THE BEST WINDOW FOR STORM ACTIVITY WILL
OCCUR TUE AND WED...WITH THE EMPHASIS ON TUE. STORMS WILL INITIATE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BOTH DAYS BY LATE MORNING...THEN TRACK E-NE
OVER THE ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTN AND EVE. LOOK FOR MAX
TEMPS TO WARM MON THROUGH WED WITH 60S ON MON TO MID TO UPPER 70S BY
WED.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S CONTINUING. THE
PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE TO THE EAST OUT OF THE
REGION...SO STORM ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED AND DIURNAL IN
NATURE AND TIED MORE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MOORE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT FRI MAY 8 2015
AT KCOS...MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL
-SHRA/-TSRA AND PERIODS OF IFR UNDER HEAVIER PRECIP LOW CLOUDS
CLEAR BRIEFLY BY LATE MORNING SAT AS STRONGER SOUTH WINDS
DEVELOP...BEFORE A RENEWED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNS INT THE AFTERNOON.
AT KPUB...EXPECT PATCHY MVFR MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH STRONG CONVECTION AND PERIODS OF BRIEF IFR CLOSE
TO THE TERMINAL UNTIL AT LEAST 03Z. OVERNIGHT...STILL LOW THREAT
OF OCCASIONAL -SHRA/-TSRA WITH UNTIL 06Z-09THEN LOWER CLOUDS
SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR BY LATE MORNING SAT AS STRONGER SOUTH WINDS
DEVELOP.
AT KALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HRS LOW CHANCE OF
TSRA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SAT.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR COZ058-060-061-082.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOORE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
300 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY
ON SUNDAY WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LOOKS
TO BRING A ROUND OR TWO OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE
REGION DURING TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BACKDOOR FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NE CT AND THE CT VALLEY IN N MA AS
OF 3 PM. TEMPS COOLING INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S TO THE EAST OF
THE FRONT AND 50S ALONG E COASTAL MA. TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT
TEMPS HAVE SOARED INTO THE UPPER 80S IN THE CT VALLEY. TREMENDOUS
TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS SNE AT 3 PM WITH BVY 51 AND BDL 89!
SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATING VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS
WESTERN MA/CT WITH SBCAPES LESS THAN 500 J/KG. DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 50S WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY. NOTING SOME CU DEVELOPMENT IN
THIS REGION AND HRRR SUGGESTING A FEW POP UP SHOWERS IN WESTERN
NEW ENG SO WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS FAR W NEW ENG OR E NY
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT E FLOW BRINGING ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
SNE WHICH WILL LEAD TO STRATUS EXPANDING NORTH AND WEST FROM THE
COAST TONIGHT ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG. AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE SE NEW ENG COAST AND HAVE ISSUED A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY ALONG AND S OF WST TO PYM. PATCHY DRIZZLE ALSO
POSSIBLE NEAR THE S COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS HOW QUICKLY STRATUS AND FOG WILL
DISSIPATE...AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLOWLY MIXES OUT. EXPECT
INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO QUICKLY BREAK OUT INTO PARTIAL SUNSHINE
DURING MID/LATE MORNING...BUT THE PROCESS WILL BE SLOWER ALONG
THE S COAST AND IT MAY TAKE UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
TURNS SOUTHERLY. IN FACT...IT IS POSSIBLE CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS
THE ISLANDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE INTERIOR WITH
SOME LOWER 80S POSSIBLE CT VALLEY. TEMPS TRICKY CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF.
WE ARE KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 60S ALONG THE S COAST WITH LOWER 70S
JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST.
SATURDAY NIGHT...
CONTINUED LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG REDEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST
IN THE EVENING THEN EXPANDING INTO THE INTERIOR. FOG WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT ALONG THE S COAST. IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT WITH MINS
DROPPING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* WILL KEEP IT MOSTLY WARM AND DRY INTO MONDAY
* MARINE STRATUS / FOG HANGING ALONG THE COAST
* SWEEPING COLD FRONT AHEAD OF WHICH ANA LIFTS NE ON TUESDAY
* COOL AND DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
DISCUSSION...
LIKE AN ODD COUPLE...ANA AND THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVE TOGETHER
BUT LOOK TO REMAIN APART IN PROXIMITY TO S NEW ENGLAND FOR THE EARLY-
WEEK FORECAST TIMEFRAME. AS ALLUDED TO YESTERDAY THE NEIGHBORING OF
THE TWO MAY RESULT IN LITTLE IN THE WAY OF OUTCOMES ACROSS OUR AREA.
JUST NOT BRINGING THE LOVE OF RAINFALL WE SO DESPERATELY NEED AS WE
ARE IN ABNORMALLY-DRY CONDITIONS. WILL GO INTO MORE DETAIL BELOW...
FORECAST CONSENSUS HAS ANA WOBBLING INTO THE CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEK-
END THEN SWEEPING NE FROM THE NC/VA BORDER OUT OVER THE 40N/70W OVER
THE EARLY-WEEK AHEAD OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. DO NOT FAVOR THE
08.12Z GFS. WITH ANA FEEL THE ATTENDANT COUNTERCLOCKWISE ROTATION
SHOULD YIELD LOCALIZED RIDGE ENHANCEMENT INTO S NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT
SUNDAY-MONDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY AS BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY/LIFT
REMAIN N OF OUR REGION ALONG A NEARLY-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
CAN NOT RULE SUBSEQUENT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DRIFT S INTO
N MA. CONTINUED LOW-CONFIDENCE SEVERE. PERHAPS SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH
INVERTED-V PROFILES SUGGESTED VIA BUFKIT. MAIN CONCERN IS HEAVY RAIN
WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 1.5-INCHES AND POTENTIAL SLOW-MOVING / TRAINING
ACTIVITY. MEANWHILE ALONG THE S/SE-COAST BENEATH AFORMENTIONED RIDGE
ENHANCEMENT LIKELY TO SEE CONTINUED MARINE STRATUS / FOG RESULTING
IN SOUPY-COOL CONDITIONS AT TIMES. SO BETWEEN THE POTENTIAL TO THE N
AND TO THE S...ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORED.
BETTER CHANCES FOR WET-WEATHER ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND WILL BE AROUND
TUESDAY AS THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COOL FRONT SWEEP
TO THE E AS ANA LIFTS TO THE NE OUT AHEAD. A COMBINATION OF DEEP-
LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WITHIN
THE WARM- SECTOR LOOK TO BE PRESENT. BUT WHETHER THERE IS ENOUGH
FORCING OR RATHER IF MARINE STRATUS / FOG TURNS OUT TO BE A CRUX
THERE IS JUST NO CERTAINTY. LATELY THERE HAS BEEN CONSISTENCY IN
THAT LITTLE IF ANY OUTCOMES ARISE AS S NEW ENGLAND FINDS ITSELF
BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF LIFT SUBSEQUENTLY RESULTING IN SINKING
MOTIONS AS INFERRED PER BUFKIT PROFILES. A WOBBLE OR SHIFT IN THE
FORECAST IS PLAUSIBLE SO WILL KEEP WITH CHANCE POPS. THINKING ANY
OUTCOMES WILL BE MOSTLY SHOWERY. NOT EVEN CERTAIN OF CONVECTIVE
THREATS ESPECIALLY IF COOL- FRONTAL PASSAGE IS DURING THE MORNING
PERIOD AS SUGGESTED PER THE CONSENSUS FORECAST. FAVOR THE 08.0Z
ECMWF WITH THIS FORECAST.
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC FORECAST TRENDS IN AGREEMENT FOR THE LATE-
WEEK PERIOD. COOLER AIRMASS SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION USHERED BY NW-
FLOW. SEASONABLE CONDITIONS BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE WITH SOME CONCERN
OF FROST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING. BY WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES E ALONG THE W-PERIPHERY OF WHICH SW-FLOW WOULD LIKELY ADVECT
WARM-MOIST CONDITIONS BACK NORTHWARD. HOW LONG THE WARM-DRY WEATHER
WILL LAST IS UNDER SOME SCRUTINY. ANOTHER WET-WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS
POSSIBLE AS QUICKLY AS THE WEEKEND...THOUGH ENSEMBLES SIGNAL AT AN
IMPACT OVER THE EARLY-WEEK PERIOD THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z...MAINLY VFR...BUT SOME IFR STRATUS MAY MOVE BACK
ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND POSSIBLY S COAST TOWARD 00Z. SOME MVFR CIGS
ACROSS NE COASTAL MA.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR DEVELOPING
DURING THE EVENING AS STRATUS AND FOG EXPAND NORTH AND WEST FROM
THE COAST. FOG WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO COASTAL PLAIN WITH
AREAS OF DENSE FOG ALONG THE SE NEW ENG COAST. PATCHY DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE. TIMING OF LOWER CIGS UNCERTAIN FURTHER INLAND BUT DO
EXPECT CIGS TO EVENTUALLY LOWER TO IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE
DISTANT INTERIOR.
SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR/LIFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
BURN OFF DURING THE MORNING IN THE INTERIOR...BUT IT MAY TAKE
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE S COAST. TIMING OF IMPROVING
CONDITIONS UNCERTAIN AND PARTS OF THE S COAST AND ESPECIALLY THE
ISLANDS MAY NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR WITH ONSHORE FLOW.
SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR/LIFR STRATUS AND FOG
REDEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AND EXPANDING INLAND ACROSS SNE
WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG NEAR THE S COAST.
KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EXACT TIMING UNCERTAIN. EXPECT
IFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING TONIGHT WITH LIFR POSSIBLE.
KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR. BREEZY SW-FLOW. IFR-LIFR MARINE STRATUS / FOG ALONG S/SE-
SHORELINE TERMINALS...ENCROACHING INTO THE INTERIOR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS. -DZ POSSIBLE WITH STRATUS / FOG.
LOW CONFIDENCE -SHRA / TSRA OVER N MA FOR THE PERIOD.
TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
SWEEPING COOL FRONT AHEAD OF WHICH ANA LIFTS NE. MIX OF LOW-END VFR
DOWN TO IFR CIGS. LOWEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG COAST. BREEZY SW-
WINDS. SCT -SHRA EXPECTED. LOW CONFIDENCE TSRA.
WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
IMPROVING. VFR. NW-WINDS POTENTIALLY GUSTY UP TO 20 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THROUGH TONIGHT...A FEW N/NE GUSTS NEAR 25 KT WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING BY EARLY EVENING. 5 FT SEAS NE MA
COASTAL WATERS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS
TO DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT EASTERLY WITH SEAS BELOW SCA.
AREAS OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPING WILL RESULT IN POOR VSBYS.
SATURDAY...WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON
BUT REMAINING BELOW SCA. AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN THE MORNING WITH
IMPROVEMENT IN VSBYS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY SW WINDS 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS BELOW
SCA. AREAS OF DENSE FOG REDEVELOPING.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
BREEZY S/SW-FLOW BUT REMAINING BELOW SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WAVES BUILDING UP TO 5-
FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. LIKELY MARINE STRATUS / FOG AHEAD OF ANA.
LOW VISIBILITIES ON THE WATERS AT TIMES MIXED IN WITH DRIZZLE.
TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
APPROACHING COOL FRONT AHEAD OF WHICH ANA LIFTS NE ACROSS 40N/70W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS...LOW CONFIDENCE ON THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASING SW-
WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COULD GUST IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS. ALONG
WITH SWELL FROM ANA...COULD BE LOOKING AT SEAS OF 6-8 FEET ON THE S
AND SE WATERS EXPOSED TO THE ATLANTIC.
WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS ANA MOVES E. SWELL DIMINISHING SLOWLY UNDER
BREEZY NW-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. WAVE HEIGHTS DROPPING BELOW
5-FEET ON THE S/SE-OUTER WATERS BY THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002-003.
MA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR MAZ018>024.
RI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...KJC/SIPPRELL
MARINE...KJC/SIPPRELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
156 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE IT REMAINS
VERY WARM ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WITH MAINLY DRY
WEATHER. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BRING A ROUND OR TWO
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
145 PM UPDATE...
BACKDOOR FRONT HAS MOVED WEST TO CENTRAL MA AND RI WITH TEMPS
COOLING INTO THE 60S TO THE WEST AND 50S ALONG E COASTAL MA. TO
THE WEST OF THE FRONT TEMPS HAVE SOARED INTO THE MID 80S IN THE
CT VALLEY. WITH THE FRONT NOT REACHING CT VALLEY UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY SEE SOME UPPER 80S IN THE CT VALLEY.
AREAS OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG LINGERING ACROSS THE S COASTAL
WATERS MAY FILL BACK IN ACROSS THE ISLANDS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATING VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS
WESTERN MA/CT WITH SBCAPES LESS THAN 500 J/KG. DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY. NOTING SOME CU
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS REGION AND HRRR SUGGESTING A FEW POP UP
SHOWERS IN WESTERN NEW ENG SO WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL LOSE ITS PUNCH AS IT MOVES INTO WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG. SOME OF THE FOG MAY
END UP LOCALLY DENSE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHERE
THERE MAY BE SOME DRIZZLE. LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION. LOW TEMPS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
SATURDAY...
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY ON SATURDAY IS HOW QUICKLY STRATUS AND FOG WILL
DISSIPATE...AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SLOWLY
WASH OUT. HOWEVER..GIVEN LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF LOW CLOUDS/FOG LASTED A BIT LONGER THEN THE MODELS
SUGGEST. STILL SHOULD SEE PARTIAL SUNSHINE EMERGE FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION BY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES MAY LINGER
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COAST.
HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY ARE TRICKY AND WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF. RIGHT NOW WE WILL STICK WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 70S...BUT PROBABLY ONLY 65 TO 70 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
ITS POSSIBLE A FEW LOCATIONS IN OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES REACH
80...IF CLOUDS BREAK UP EARLY ENOUGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
* NIGHTTIME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG S AND SE COASTAL AREAS
* REMNANTS OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA PASS S OF REGION AS COLD
FRONT SWEEPS IN AROUND TUESDAY
* COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES ON THIS MORNING/S PACKAGE.
NHC HAS UPGRADED LOW PRES OFF THE SE U.S. COAST...CLASSIFYING IT
AS SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE THAT THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEMS MAY AFFECT SOUTH COASTAL
AREAS DURING TUESDAY...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH LOW PRES AND
COLD FRONT E WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE SYSTEM/S EFFECTS
OFFSHORE. HAVE MENTIONED POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY E-NE WINDS...BRIEF
HEAVY SHOWERS AND HIGHER SEAS POSSIBLE IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK FOR OUR SOUTH COASTAL AREAS AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.
RIDGING CONTINUES INTO MONDAY...SO EXPECT GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WITH PERSISTENT S-SW WINDS IN PLACE...
EXPECT DEWPTS TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL SEE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG S COASTAL AREAS SAT
NIGHT. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECASTED DEWPTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER-
MID 60S...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS
MOST AREAS GENERALLY S OF THE MASS PIKE AGAIN DURING LATE NIGHT
INTO MID MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY.
LEANED TOWARD SLOWER TIMING OF GGEM/ECMWF WHICH SLOWED PROGRESSION
OF THE FRONT A BIT MORE...THOUGH STILL COULD SEE SOME PRECIP MOVE
INTO NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO NOTING SOME
INSTABILITY WORKING IN WITH K INDICES INTO THE LOWER 30S...WHICH
LOOKS TO WORK THROUGH TO NEAR THE MASS PIKE DURING MONDAY.
MENTIONED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WILL BE RATHER WARM ON MOTHER/S DAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER-MID 80S.
RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TIMING OF COLD FRONT OUT OF NY STATE
DURING TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS. WITH
INCREASED PWAT/S /ON ORDER OF 1.75 INCHES/...MAY SEE SOME BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN SOME OF THE CONVECTION THAT LOOKS TO DEVELOP
TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT...BRINGING IN COOLER AIR ON W-NW
WINDS. NOTING H5 S/W MOVES ACROSS DURING WED...BUT LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH AND MOST OF THE ENERGY REMAINS N OF THE REGION SO
SHOULD BE A DRY DAY AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH WORKS IN OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES FOR WED-THU. EXPECT GENERALLY PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS...THOUGH MIGHT BE
A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL ON THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z...MAINLY VFR...BUT SOME IFR STRATUS MAY MOVE BACK
ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND POSSIBLY S COAST TOWARD 00Z. SOME MVFR CIGS
ACROSS NE COASTAL MA.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR DEVELOPING
DURING THE EVENING AS STRATUS AND FOG EXPAND NORTH AND WEST FROM
THE COAST. FOG WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO COASTAL PLAIN WITH
AREAS OF DENSE FOG ALONG THE SE NEW ENG COAST. PATCHY DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE. TIMING OF LOWER CIGS UNCERTAIN FURTHER INLAND BUT DO
EXPECT CIGS TO EVENTUALLY LOWER TO IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE
DISTANT INTERIOR.
SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR/LIFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
BURN OFF DURING THE MORNING IN THE INTERIOR...BUT IT MAY TAKE
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE S COAST. TIMING OF IMPROVING
CONDITIONS UNCERTAIN AND PARTS OF THE S COAST AND ESPECIALLY THE
ISLANDS MAY NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR WITH ONSHORE FLOW.
SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR/LIFR STRATUS AND FOG
REDEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AND EXPANDING INLAND ACROSS SNE
WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG NEAR THE S COAST.
KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EXACT TIMING UNCERTAIN. EXPECT
IFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING TONIGHT WITH LIFR POSSIBLE.
KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR. S-SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT AT TIMES MAINLY THROUGH
MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. IFR-LIFR IN LOW
CLOUDS...FOG AND PATCHY DRIZZLE ALONG S/SE SHORELINE
TERMINALS...ENCROACHING INTO THE INTERIOR DURING THE OVERNIGHT
INTO MORNING PERIODS.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY LOW END VFR CONDITIONS...BUT MAY SEE MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCT SHOWERS. LOWEST CONDITIONS SEEN ALONG COASTAL TERMINALS. LOW
CHANCE OF TSTMS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT ALONG S COAST
DURING TUESDAY AS REMNANTS OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA PASSES S OF
THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS
OUR NORTHEAST WATERS THIS MORNING. DECENT PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD YIELD A BRIEF PERIOD OF 20 TO 25 KNOT NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS INTO MID AFTERNOON FROM BOSTON HARBOR AND POINTS NORTHEAST.
WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE TO MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ANY EARLY
SEASON RECREATIONAL BOATERS. SEAS MAY REACH 5 FEET FOR A SHORT TIME
TOWARD EVENING ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEAST WATERS...BUT FEEL ITS SHORT
LIVED AND WE ARE COVERED WITH THE MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT.
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT BEGINS
TO LOSE ITS PUNCH TONIGHT AND WILL WASHOUT BY SATURDAY. MAY SEE
SOME LEFT OVER MARGINAL 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEAST WATERS
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MAIN
CONCERN FOR MARINERS WILL BE FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPING
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE
VISIBILITIES IMPROVE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF OUR
WATERS....BUT MAY LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA...THOUGH MAY SEE
SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AND SEAS UP TO 5 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER
WATERS FOR A TIME SUNDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
LIKELY REDUCE VSBYS. MAY SEE PERIODS OF DRIZZLE ALONG THE SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS CONTINUE AS SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHETHER REMNANTS OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA AFFECT
THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE TUESDAY...ALONG WITH LOW CHANCE OF
SCT THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20
KT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY...MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE DROPPING TO
NEAR 30 PERCENT WHEN HIGH TEMPS ARE REACHED AWAY FROM THE
COAST...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AT THAT TIME. WINDS WILL INCREASE
SOME FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI BEHIND A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. IN FACT... BRIEF EAST
TO NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST MA...BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL BE INCREASING TO OVER 50 PERCENT AS MARINE AIR INVADES EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002-003.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
332 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. SUB TROPICAL STORM ANA WILL MEANDER OFF THE CAROLINA
COASTAL AREAS THIS WEEKEND AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE NORTH WARD EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HEADING INTO THIS EVENING, COMPARING CURRENT HRRR AND RADAR RETURNS
(MODEL LOOKS TO BE VERIFYING LOCATION OF ENHANCED CU MORE SO THAN
PCPN IN OUR CWA) AND WHERE IT GOES FROM HERE, NO POPS IN OUR CWA.
GFS WHICH IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PCPN NORTH AND WEST CWA FCST
SFC DEW POINTS ARE VERIFYING 5-8F TOO MOIST IN OUR AREA.
A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
TONIGHT (AND REALLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND). WITH DEW POINTS STILL
HIGHER THAN WATER TEMPS, CURRENT FOG OVER THE OCEAN SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN SPREAD INLAND AND BECOME DENSE AGAIN. THE HRRR WHICH DID
VERY WELL WITH THE DENSE FOG LAST NIGHT WAS HITTING NEW JERSEY
HARD WITH THE FOG AGAIN. IN DELMARVA (TU AKQ AND LWX) THE UPS
CROSSOVER PROCEDURE IS SUGGESTING MORE STRATUS THAN FOG.
THE NARRE THRU 05Z IS MORE SERN NJ AND DE CENTRIC.
LAST NIGHT IT WAS A BIT TOO CONSERVATIVE.
AS A FIRST STEP, WE ARE GOING TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY STARTING
NEARLY IMMEDIATELY FOR THE COAST AND THEN INCLUDING ALL OF DELAWARE
AND PRETTY MUCH EAST OF THE I295/NJ TURNPIKE CORRIDOR STARTING LATER
TONIGHT. WE WILL CARRY PATCHIER FOG FOR LOCATIONS FARTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST AND WEST AND LET THE EVENING SHIFT REASSESS. MIN
TEMPERATURES ARE A STAT GUIDANCE BLEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
MODEL FORECASTING SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING A SLOWER BURNING OFF THE
FOG AND THE LOW CLOUDS THAN OCCURRED TODAY. EITHER WAY GIVEN THE
LENGTH OF THE DAY, THE SUN WILL GET ITS WAY AND ERODE THE CLOUDS.
MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION. MOST OF
IT IS PREDICATED ON PREDICTED SFC DEW POINTS THAT ARE 5-10F HIGHER
THAN THEIR OWN STAT GUIDANCE. A MORE REALISTIC MIXING OF SUB 850MB
MOISTURE WOULD HAVE THE CAP HOLD IN MOST OF OUR CWA. THE ONLY
LOCATION WHERE STAT AND SFC PREDICTED DEW POINTS COME CLOSE IS IN
DELMARVA. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A DOUBLE BAY BREEZE
CONVERGENCE AND WE KEPT AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDER
THERE.
HIGHER GFS MOS STAT GUIDANCE LOOKS BETTER. BOTH NAM AND GFS FCST MAX
TEMPS OFF THEIR AFTN SOUNDINGS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH GFS MOS. THE
LATTER IS ALREADY TOO LOW IN NORTHWEST AREAS TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...THE WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE RAINS ARE
EXPECTED...BUT SCT TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE SUN AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG
AND DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY.
MON THRU TUE NIGHT...AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH THE MOISTURE FROM ANA
AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ACTING UPON THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS FAVORING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES
STILL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
WED THRU FRI...FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WED.
THE FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS WED AND REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THRU FRI. THE
AIR WILL BE DRIER/MORE COMFORTABLE THAN MON/TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE DROPPING
DOWN TO IFR/LIFR TONIGHT. FOG ALONG THE COAST WILL PUSH INLAND
TONIGHT ON A CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW. KMIV/KACY WILL BE IMPACTED BY
LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS BY 01Z/02Z, WITH POINTS INLAND
STARTING TO SEE EFFECTS FROM THE FOG BETWEEN 05Z-08Z. THE FOG MAY BE
DENSE ENOUGH THAT WE SEE 1/4SM OR LESS AT TIMES AT SOME OF THE
TERMINALS.
THE FOG, AND SOME LOWER CEILINGS, WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. CLEARING WILL BE SLOW, LIKELY SLOWER THAN THIS
MORNING, AND WE WILL REMAIN SUB-VFR THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING.
KABE/KRDG WILL CLEAR EARLIER WITH POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
TAKING LONGER TO CLEAR. CEILINGS MAY LINGER IN THE MVFR RANGE INTO
THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...LOCALLY POOR CONDITIONS IN
FOG/DRIZZLE/LOW CLOUDS. SCT SHOWERS SUN AFTERNOON.
MON THRU TUE NIGHT...SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH LOWER CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. AREAS OF FOG NEAR THE COAST.
WED...MOSTLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WE HAVE EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE AREA
WATERS THROUGH NOON ON SATURDAY, FROM MANASQUAN INLET, NJ SOUTH
TO FENWICK ISLAND, DE AND FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE BAY. DENSE FOG IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY BASED
ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS FROM MARINERS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY.
ELSEWHERE, FOR THE WATERS OFF THE MONMOUTH COUNTY COAST AND FOR
THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY, VISIBILITY CONDITIONS HAVE BRIEFLY
IMPROVED THIS AFTERNOON BUT ARE ANTICIPATED TO ONCE AGAIN
DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY GOES
INTO EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS FROM 7PM THIS EVENING THROUGH NOON
SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. AREAS OF DRIZZLE
AND FOG.
MON THRU TUE...LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS FOR SEAS POSSIBLE. SCT
TSTMS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR NJZ014-024>026.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR NJZ013-016>023-027.
DE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR DEZ004.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR DEZ001>003.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ431-451>455.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT SATURDAY
FOR ANZ430-450.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...GIGI/MEOLA
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...MEOLA/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/KLINE/O`HARA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
245 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
.DISCUSSION...
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE ONGOING
WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS AREA REMAINS UNDER VERY
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE FAR SOUTHWEST SIDE OF SUBTROPICAL STORM
ANA NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG
THE BREVARD AND TREASURE COAST WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT THEIR
CURRENT LEVELS WITH OTHER LOCATIONS MAXING OUT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR TONIGHT THOUGH WITH SOME PASSING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AS A FEW WEAK VORTICITY MAXES ROTATE AROUND THE LARGER ANA
CIRCULATION. NOT TOO MUCH MOISTURE IN THE REGION TO WORK WITH SO
DON`T EXPECT ANY LAND IMPACTS...BUT WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS
OVER THE ATLANTIC AND GULF STREAM. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER
60S.
SATURDAY...ANOTHER PLEASANT LATE SPRING DAY AS ANA MEANDERS FURTHER
NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN FROM THE ATLANTIC.
NORTHWEST WIND COMPONENT WILL BE LIGHTER ALLOWING FOR QUICKER
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR ANY NOTABLE RAIN CHANCES OVER
LAND THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S/AROUND
90 INLAND AND MID-UPPER 80S COAST.
SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT...
THE LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE BACK ACROSS
THE PENINSULA AS ANA LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH TOWARDS THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS. THIS WILL TURN LOW LEVEL WINDS TO SOUTHERLY WHICH WILL
CAUSE MOISTURE LEVELS TO INCREASE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
THE 1.3 TO 1.5 RANGE WILL KEEP POPS LOW THOUGH. EXPECT SOME MARINE
CONVECTION SAT NIGHT...THEN WITH DAYTIME HEATING...ISOLATED SEA
BREEZE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD FORM...STARTING IN THE SOUTH AND
WORKING NORTHWARD.
MOS POPS ARE NEAR 20 PERCENT IN THE SOUTH AND SINGLE DIGITS IN
THE NORTH FOR SUNDAY...THEN 20 PERCENT EVERYWHERE AFTER SUNSET
SUNDAY. THINK THAT EAST/WEST COAST BOUNDARY COLLISION WOULD BE A
LITTLE EARLIER...SO HAVE PAINTED 20 POPS AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY.
WE ARE GETTING INTO THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE NOW SO MAX TEMPS WILL
START REACHING THE LOWER 90S INLAND AND UPPER 80S AT THE COAST
WITH MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
MON-FRI...(MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)
THE BLOCKING RIDGE THAT IS KEEPING ANA STATIONARY WILL BREAK DOWN
BY THE START OF THE WORK WEEK AS IT IS ERODED FROM THE WEST AND
NORTH BY AN ADVANCING FRONTAL TROF OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPR
MIDWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW ANA TO DRIFT INTO THE CAROLINAS BY
DAYBREAK MON WHERE SHE WILL START TO ACCELERATE NORTHEAST AND
EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED BY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND.
AS THE ABOVE SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS WILL REBUILD
OVER CENTRAL FL...WHERE IT WILL BCM THE PRIMARY WX FEATURE THRU THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. REGIONAL H100-H70 WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE S/SE
BY DAYBREAK MON AND REMAIN IN PLACE...TAPPING AN AIRMASS OVER THE
GREATER ANTILLES THAT SIMPLY DOES NOT HAVE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PRECIP. RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW H100-H70 RH
VALUES AOB 70PCT...NOT CONDUCIVE FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN LOW END SCT
POPS.
EVEN SO...AS THE RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS OVERHEAD...THE WX PATTERN WILL
SHIFT TO A MORE SUMMER LIKE REGIME WITH ISOLD/SCT SHRAS/TSRAS
GENERATED BY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE. WILL GO WITH
20-30PCT THRU WED... HIGHER OVER THE INTERIOR GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED
SE FLOW COMPONENT...INCREASING TO 30/40PCT ON THU AS MOISTURE
LOADING SLOWLY INCREASES. MAX TEMPS NEAR CLIMO AVG (M/U80S)...MIN
TEMPS ARND 5F ABV AVG (L/M70S).
&&
.AVIATION...VFR. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL PUSH ACROSS PENINSULA
AROUND SUNSET WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW QUICKER DEVELOPMENT AND INLAND MOVEMENT OF SEA BREEZE ON
SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT-SATURDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE STARTED TO DIMINISH AT LOCAL
BUOYS AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO WILL ALLOW CURRENT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE
IN FAVOR OF A CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR THIS EVENING. SLOW DOWNWARD
TREND WILL BRING SEAS TO 3-4FT WITH UP TO 5FT LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. MODELS SEEM A LITTLE TOO SHORT WITH DOMINANT WAVE
PERIODS SO WILL KEEP THEM CLOSER TO OBSERVATIONS AT 9-10SEC.
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS NOSING INTO AREA ON SATURDAY AS
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA MOVES FURTHER NORTH WILL KEEP FLOW FAIRLY
LIGHT WITH PREVAILING WEST 5-10KTS OVERNIGHT BECOMING E-SE WITH SEA
BREEZE DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN-WED...THE AXIS OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA SUNDAY AND THEN ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA ON MON.
THIS WILL CAUSE A SOUTHEAST/SOUTH WIND FLOW TO SET UP. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT AROUND 10 KNOTS BUT THE DAILY SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL ACCELERATE SPEEDS TO NEAR 15 KNOTS EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY
SUN/MON WHILE SOUTH SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW CONTINUES. THEN BY
TUE/WED...DAYTIME HEATING STORMS SHOULD STAY OVER THE MAINLAND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 64 86 68 89 / 10 10 10 20
MCO 66 91 68 92 / 0 10 10 20
MLB 65 85 70 87 / 10 10 10 20
VRB 64 86 69 88 / 10 10 10 20
LEE 67 89 69 92 / 0 10 10 20
SFB 67 89 69 91 / 0 10 10 20
ORL 68 90 70 92 / 0 10 10 20
FPR 64 87 69 88 / 10 10 10 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MOSES
LONG TERM....LASCODY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
629 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL POPPING UP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA SO HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THE GRIDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST APPEARS
TO BE ON TRACK SO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO T AND TD GIRDS TO
ALIGN THEM WITH MOST RECENT OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING ON OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE WHILE LOWER PRESSURE SETTLES DEEPER INTO
THE PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN ADDITION...SUB TROPICAL
STORM ANA IS SEEN OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. WITH LESS
IN THE WAY OF MORNING CLOUD COVER TODAY THE INITIAL STORMS
STARTED EARLIER THAN YESTERDAY...THOUGH SO FAR COVERAGE HAS BEEN
MORE ISOLATED. THEIR SLOW MOVEMENT WILL LEAD TO CONCERNS FOR
HEAVY RAINS AND A POTENTIAL FOR HIGHLY LOCALIZED FLOODING THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE
PEAKING IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S WHILE DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE
MID 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA...AMID LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE FAIRLY STEADY
STATE PATTERN OVER THE REGION INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THEY ALL
DEPICT A LARGE RIDGE OF MODERATE STRENGTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD
OF THE NATION. IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS RIDGE IS A COMPACT UPPER LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH ANA...WHILE TO THE WEST A HEALTHY CLOSED LOW
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ROLL EAST THEN NORTHEAST FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WESTERN TROUGH WILL
OPEN UP A BIT DURING THIS PROCESS ALLOWING WAVES OF ENERGY TO
ESCAPE AND DRIFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY IN THE BROAD SOUTHWEST
FLOW. THESE BITS MAY SCRAPE CLOSE ENOUGH TO EAST KENTUCKY TO ADD
TO A POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION...AT TIMES...THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM THOUGH THE DIURNAL CYCLE WILL BE DOMINANT. GIVEN THE MODEL
AGREEMENT FOR OUR AREA HAVE FOLLOWED A GENERAL BLEND WITH
EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS PERSISTENT PATTERN WITH THE
ADDITION OF A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS FROM ANY
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORMS DUE TO INCREASING PW AND SLOW STORM
MOTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM...TOO...REACHING THE
MID AND UPPER 80S AGAIN SATURDAY AND IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S
EACH NIGHT VARYING FROM THE COOLER NORTHEAST VALLEYS TO THE
MILD SOUTHWEST RIDGES. WILL CONTINUE INCLUSION OF PATCHY FOG IN
THE VALLEYS EACH NIGHT TOWARDS DAWN.
AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD AND
WIND GRIDS INITIALLY...FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND. DID ENHANCE
THE MIN TEMPS FOR RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP MOST SIMILAR TO THE MET
NUMBERS...THOUGH WITH AN EXAGGERATED DIURNAL CURVE THAT KEEPS THE
POPS LOWER DURING THE HEART OF THE NIGHT AND THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING HOURS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FIRST PART OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. SUNDAY WILL FEATURE A WAVE OF ENERGY
JUST TO THE EAST AND WARM/MOIST AIR OUT AHEAD. THIS WILL LEAD TO
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY. THESE STORMS
HOWEVER WILL HAVE LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH LITTLE TO NO
SHEAR...GIVEN THIS THE MAIN THREAT HERE WOULD BE HEAVY RAINFALL
AND QUASISTATIONARY STORMS. THESE STORMS WILL MOSTLY DIE OFF WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. ONCE WE MOVE INTO MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL NEGATIVELY TILT AND CUTOFF ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL USHER IN HEIGHT FALLS AND
HELP SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE QUESTION WILL
BE HOW DOES THE LIFT LINE UP WITH THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT AND BETTER SHEAR. RIGHT NOW THE SETUP WOULD LEAN
TOWARD A SQUALL LINE TYPE MODE...HOWEVER THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
LOOKED AT IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES. DID CONTINUE TO BRING
POPS UP ON MONDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH PASSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO EVEN BELOW
NORMAL. WINDS WILL START OF OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST TO EAST OVER
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST
OF OF THE GREAT LAKES. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL
COME BACK INTO THE PICTURE AS WE MOVE TOWARD FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW
FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST LACK OF THUNDER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE AVIATION PERIOD.
AN EXCEPTION BEING A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM AT THE
TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
BE KEPT OUT OF THE OFFICIAL TAFS. IN ADDITION THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR FOG AT THE LOZ AND SME SITES TOWARD DAWN
SATURDAY WHICH HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THOSE TAFS AS A TEMPO GROUP.
WINDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE BULK OF
THE PERIOD BEFORE TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BY MIDDAY SATURDAY IN THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
255 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 158
PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MANY ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV IN
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HRRR MODEL HANDLED THIS SITUATION VERY WELL AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THE MCV MAY ASSIST IN AIDING
STORMS TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON.
GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT AND CONSISTENT HANDLE ON THINGS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ECMWF IS SIMILAR IN CHARACTER. AFTER THE
MAIN ROUND THIS AFTERNOON...ONLY SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED
UNTIL LATER SATURDAY MORNING WHEN THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES
INTO SEMO. HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THAT WILL MOVE MORE INTO
ILLINOIS AND POSSIBLY SOUTHWEST INDIANA.
A LULL THEN SETS IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH SOME
SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE. CAP IS NEVER TOO STRONG DURING THIS
PERIOD. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THE MAIN TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT AND
WILL BRING A BETTER STORM COVERAGE INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.
SEVERE CHANCES ARE SOMEWHAT LIMITED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ISOLATED
SEVERE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS BUT ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT MAY 8
2015
THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PAH FORECAST AREA...TRAILING FROM A CYCLONE
MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN RAPID
CESSATION OF PCPN (SHOWERS/TSTMS) BY EVENING WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION...AND A TURN OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO THE WEST.
UNDER QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...AND A RIDGE OF HIGH SFC PRESSURE...
MOST OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE THROUGH WED...
EXCEPT PERHAPS THE FAR WEST. FROM MID WEEK ON...THE 00Z ECMWF SEEMED
TO BE THE ODD MODEL OUT...IN DISAGREEMENT WITH ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN
(AND THE GEFS/NAEFS). IT SHOWED A TENDENCY TOWARD A QUICKER RETURN
FLOW DUE TO EXTRA MID LEVEL SHRTWV ENERGY TO THE SE OF A WRN CONUS
TROF. THE 12Z RUN CAME IN LOOKING QUITE SIMILAR TO THE MORE
CONSISTENT GFS...WHICH SHOWED MORE OF AN ERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
DRIER CONDITIONS INTO PART OF THU. THUS...A SLOW RAMPING UP OF
(LIMITED) POPS FROM WEST TO EAST WAS LEFT IN THE FORECAST WED
NIGHT/THU/THU NIGHT. BY FRI...PCPN SEEMS A BIT MORE PROBABLE WITH A
SFC WARM FRONT SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY. OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IN
WHERE AND WHEN IT WILL BE RAINING FROM MID WEEK ON IS IFFY.
TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD CAN BE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015
ON-GOING CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EASTWARD AND AFFECT KPAH AND KEVV BUT SHOULD WEAKEN BY KOWB. MVFR
CONDITIONS IN STORMS. MAIN WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA BY
EARLY EVENING WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.
TOWARDS DAYBREAK EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS AT SEVERAL SITES WITH
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE AREA.PS
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...PS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
353 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING ON OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE WHILE LOWER PRESSURE SETTLES DEEPER INTO
THE PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN ADDITION...SUB TROPICAL
STORM ANA IS SEEN OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. WITH LESS
IN THE WAY OF MORNING CLOUD COVER TODAY THE INITIAL STORMS
STARTED EARLIER THAN YESTERDAY...THOUGH SO FAR COVERAGE HAS BEEN
MORE ISOLATED. THEIR SLOW MOVEMENT WILL LEAD TO CONCERNS FOR
HEAVY RAINS AND A POTENTIAL FOR HIGHLY LOCALIZED FLOODING THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE
PEAKING IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S WHILE DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE
MID 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA...AMID LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE FAIRLY STEADY
STATE PATTERN OVER THE REGION INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THEY ALL
DEPICT A LARGE RIDGE OF MODERATE STRENGTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD
OF THE NATION. IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS RIDGE IS A COMPACT UPPER LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH ANA...WHILE TO THE WEST A HEALTHY CLOSED LOW
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ROLL EAST THEN NORTHEAST FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WESTERN TROUGH WILL
OPEN UP A BIT DURING THIS PROCESS ALLOWING WAVES OF ENERGY TO
ESCAPE AND DRIFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY IN THE BROAD SOUTHWEST
FLOW. THESE BITS MAY SCRAPE CLOSE ENOUGH TO EAST KENTUCKY TO ADD
TO A POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION...AT TIMES...THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM THOUGH THE DIURNAL CYCLE WILL BE DOMINANT. GIVEN THE MODEL
AGREEMENT FOR OUR AREA HAVE FOLLOWED A GENERAL BLEND WITH
EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS PERSISTENT PATTERN WITH THE
ADDITION OF A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS FROM ANY
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORMS DUE TO INCREASING PW AND SLOW STORM
MOTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM...TOO...REACHING THE
MID AND UPPER 80S AGAIN SATURDAY AND IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S
EACH NIGHT VARYING FROM THE COOLER NORTHEAST VALLEYS TO THE
MILD SOUTHWEST RIDGES. WILL CONTINUE INCLUSION OF PATCHY FOG IN
THE VALLEYS EACH NIGHT TOWARDS DAWN.
AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD AND
WIND GRIDS INITIALLY...FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND. DID ENHANCE
THE MIN TEMPS FOR RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP MOST SIMILAR TO THE MET
NUMBERS...THOUGH WITH AN EXAGGERATED DIURNAL CURVE THAT KEEPS THE
POPS LOWER DURING THE HEART OF THE NIGHT AND THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING HOURS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FIRST PART OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. SUNDAY WILL FEATURE A WAVE OF ENERGY
JUST TO THE EAST AND WARM/MOIST AIR OUT AHEAD. THIS WILL LEAD TO
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY. THESE STORMS
HOWEVER WILL HAVE LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH LITTLE TO NO
SHEAR...GIVEN THIS THE MAIN THREAT HERE WOULD BE HEAVY RAINFALL
AND QUASISTATIONARY STORMS. THESE STORMS WILL MOSTLY DIE OFF WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. ONCE WE MOVE INTO MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL NEGATIVELY TILT AND CUTOFF ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL USHER IN HEIGHT FALLS AND
HELP SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE QUESTION WILL
BE HOW DOES THE LIFT LINE UP WITH THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT AND BETTER SHEAR. RIGHT NOW THE SETUP WOULD LEAN
TOWARD A SQUALL LINE TYPE MODE...HOWEVER THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
LOOKED AT IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES. DID CONTINUE TO BRING
POPS UP ON MONDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH PASSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO EVEN BELOW
NORMAL. WINDS WILL START OF OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST TO EAST OVER
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST
OF OF THE GREAT LAKES. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL
COME BACK INTO THE PICTURE AS WE MOVE TOWARD FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW
FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST LACK OF THUNDER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE AVIATION PERIOD.
AN EXCEPTION BEING A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM AT THE
TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
BE KEPT OUT OF THE OFFICIAL TAFS. IN ADDITION THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR FOG AT THE LOZ AND SME SITES TOWARD DAWN
SATURDAY WHICH HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THOSE TAFS AS A TEMPO GROUP.
WINDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE BULK OF
THE PERIOD BEFORE TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BY MIDDAY SATURDAY IN THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
1228 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAFS
UPDATE ISSUED AT 923 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015
ADJUSTED GRIDS/FORECAST TO BE CLOSER TO HRRR MODEL OUTPUT. HRRR
HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT THE LAST FEW RUNS ON PUSHING THE PRECIP
TO OUR WEST THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA TODAY. AM CONCERNED ABOUT MCV
SEEN IN THE RADAR LOOPS OVER NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. SEEMS TO BE
LIFTING A BIT NORTHEAST AND MAY ENHANCE PRECIPITATION OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WILL BE
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON IT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. OUR REGION WILL BE ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A CLOSED LOW.
THE DEEP 500 MB CLOSED LOW WILL EJECT NORTHEAST FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST INTO THE UPPER MISSOURI VALLEY BY SUNDAY EVENING. PLENTY
OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES REMAINING
IN THE 1.5 TO 1.8 INCH RANGE. A SERIES OF IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE SMALLEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE OVER PARTS OF WESTERN
KENTUCKY...WHICH WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND ASSOCIATED IMPULSES.
THE FIRST IN THE SERIES OF IMPULSES IS RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER FAR WESTERN MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS EARLY
THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE BRINGING THIS PRECIP EASTWARD
TOO RAPIDLY THIS MORNING. THE SLOWER 00Z ECMWF LOOKS
REASONABLE...TAKING THE LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS INTO SE MISSOURI
AND SRN ILLINOIS LATER THIS MORNING...AND THEN INTO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING AS MUCH
INSTABILITY AS THEY DID IN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT STILL MORE THAN
ENOUGH FOR THUNDER. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG GRADIENT OF POPS
TODAY...RANGING FROM SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE KHOP AREA TO LIKELY IN
THE KMVN/KMDH/KPOF CORRIDOR. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY...EXCEPT A LITTLE COOLER IN THE AREA OF LIKELY POPS.
THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIP TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
THE FIRST IMPULSE.
ON SATURDAY...PRECIP CHANCES WILL AGAIN RAMP UP INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY IN PARTS OF OUR REGION AS A SECOND IMPULSE LIFTS
NORTHEAST. THE LOWEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE KHOP AREA...WHICH
WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF THE ACTIVE FLOW PATTERN. INSTABILITY IS
ONCE AGAIN NOT AS STRONG AS THE MODELS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...BUT
THUNDER IS STILL LIKELY. HIGH TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON THE DURATION OF
PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER...WHICH IS A CHALLENGE TO ESTIMATE. GIVEN
THE WARM START TO THE DAY AND WARM 850 MB TEMPS NEAR 14...IT WONT
TAKE MUCH SUN TO REACH THE LOWER AND MID 80S.
ANOTHER RELATIVE LULL IN THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF THE SECOND IMPULSE.
SUNDAY MAY BE THE WARMEST AND DRIEST PERIOD OF THE
WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE MOTION OF SUB-TROPICAL STORM ANA OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST. THE 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IS
FORECAST TO SHARPEN SOMEWHAT IN RESPONSE TO ANA...AND IT MAY
RETROGRADE A BIT WESTWARD. EVEN IF THIS TAKES PLACE...SOME
DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION WOULD OCCUR GIVEN THE STRONGER SOLAR
HEATING AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.
THE THIRD AND STRONGEST SHORTWAVE IN THE SERIES WILL EJECT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
LIKELY SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE AT
NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THEN VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE 00Z MODELS DEVELOP A LARGE SWATH OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM WESTERN
ARKANSAS THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. THEY
FIZZLE THIS CONVECTION OUT MONDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND THEY ARE LESS THAN ROBUST WITH
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. THEY DO
AGREE IN KEEPING THE AREA DRY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LIKELY POPS AREAWIDE ON MONDAY WITH AN
EMPHASIS IN THE WEST/NORTHWEST...AND WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA INTO MONDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE TIMING
OF THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION INTO THE REGION...AM LESS CONCERNED
WITH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON MONDAY.
REALLY LIKE THE 00Z GFS WHICH HAS BEEN MOST CONSISTENT HEADING
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. IT HAS PERSISTENT TROUGHING
OFF THE WEST COAST AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST...WITH A RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES/PLAINS. THIS RESULTS IN DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER OUR REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
SUPPORTS THE 00Z GFS OPERATIONAL RUN.
THE 00Z ECMWF HAS LESS TROUGHING IN THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST AND
REALLY FLATTENS THE RIDGE...PUTTING OUR AREA BACK INTO SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. OF COURSE WITH A DEPARTING SURFACE
HIGH...MOISTURE AND QPF FOLLOW QUICKLY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.
WOULD PREFER TO HAVE A DRY FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT
WILL HAVE TO KEEP POPS IN UNTIL THE ECMWF SHOWS SOME SIGN OF COMING
INTO LINE WITH THE GFS. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL ON
MONDAY AND THEN QUICKLY DROP A FEW TICKS BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015
ON-GOING CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EASTWARD AND AFFECT KPAH AND KEVV BUT SHOULD WEAKEN BY KOWB. MVFR
CONDITIONS IN STORMS. MAIN WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA BY
EARLY EVENING WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.
TOWARDS DAYBREAK EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS AT SEVERAL SITES WITH
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE AREA.PS
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PS
SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...DRS
AVIATION...PS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
132 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING 09/18Z...TSTMS AND CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERNS. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT BRIEF VSBY AND CIG REDUCTIONS TO MVFR VCNTY OF THE
CONVECTION AS WELL AS MODERATE TURBULENCE AND SFC WIND GUST UP TO
30 KTS PSBL IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL
RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY
MORNING. ALSO...ADDITIONAL SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL SPREAD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST...BRINGING PERIODS OF IFR BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z.
VFR EXPECTED TO RETURN BY 18Z SATURDAY...BUT SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP. /14/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS PARTS OF THE
REGION THIS MORNING...AND THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE WAY OF IT FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE
TO REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF OUR
REGION IS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE
PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE FLOODING THREAT WILL BE FAR MORE ENHANCED OVER THE
AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING. FOR
THE UPDATE...HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/WX/QPF...BUT
OTHERWISE...THE FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. /12/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 830 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015/
DISCUSSION...
WHAT IS LEFT OF THE OVERNIGHT MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD JUST
NORTH OF I-20 IN EXTREME EAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION REDEVELOPING FARTHER NORTHWEST. TWO CELLS OF
PRIMARY CONCERN. THE FIRST IS WHAT USED TO BE THE SWRN END OF THE
MCS...WHICH IS JUST EAST OF MINDEN LA AS OF 13Z.
THE SECOND STORM IS MOVING INTO CADDO PARISH AND OUT OF E TX.
EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRED EARLIER OVER HARRISON COUNTY. 6
INCHES OF RAIN WAS MEASURED NORTH OF HALLSVILLE AND CONSIDERABLE
FLASH FLOODING WAS ALSO REPORTED. THIS CELL IS DISSIPATING AS IT
MOVES INTO AIR THAT HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT STABILIZED BY COOL OUTFLOW
FROM THE OLD MCS TO THE EAST.
HAVE UPDATED POP/QPF/WX GRIDS THROUGH 18Z. /09/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015/
CORRECTED TO INCLUDE AVIATION DISCUSSION...
DISCUSSION...
MCS CONTINUES TO MARCH EASTWARD BUT IS ALSO GRADUALLY WEAKENING.
LATEST HRRR HAS HANDLED THE CONVECTION QUITE WELL TONIGHT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF BEING TOO SLOW. RADAR TRENDS ALSO PROMOTE HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN THE HRRR IN REGARDS TO THE CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF OUR NRN LA PARISHES/SRN AR COUNTIES NORTH OF
I-20 WHICH SHOULD OCCUR AROUND 12-14Z BASED ON CURRENT SPEEDS.
HAVE ONCE INCLUDED PRE-FIRST PERIOD WORDING TO HANDLE POPS PRIOR
TO 12Z THIS MORNING. WILL LIKELY SEND A ZFP UPDATE AFTER THAT TIME
TO CLEAN UP THE TEXT.
WITH THE MCS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA EARLY IN THE
MORNING...LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE RAIN THIS MORNING SHOULD HAVE
PLENTY OF TIME TO RECOVER. RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COMBINED
WITH SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. YET ANOTHER MCS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM ACROSS SRN OK SOUTHWARD INTO TX. THE
NAM HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN TOO FAST OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH
MOVING CONVECTION INTO THE ARKLATEX. HOWEVER...OTHER MODELS ALSO
INDICATE SHWRS/TSTMS MOVING INTO AREAS NW OF A TYLER TO PRESCOTT
LINE PRIOR TO 09/06Z SO HAVE INCLUDED LIKELY POPS BEGINNING THIS
EVENING. A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS IN PLAY MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
DAMAGING WINDS.
SATURDAY`S FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH A REPEAT OF TODAY. ONE ROUND OF
CONVECTION SHOULD END DURING THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS. POPS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE GOING INTO
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS OVER THE AREA IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH EJECTING NEWD FROM THE ROCKIES INTO
KS/NE. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO APPROACH THE AREA WHICH SHOULD
PROVIDE AN ENHANCED FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT. SEVERE WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY INCLUDING A
THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
THE CONTINUED HIGH RAIN CHANCES POINT TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
BEING POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING COULD
EASILY BE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS MOST
LIKELY ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT INTERACTING WITH THE
FRONT AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC LOW OVER S TX WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED TIME
FRAME. /09/
AVIATION...
EXPECT SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS DEEP E TX...NW
LA...AND S AR THROUGH SUNRISE OF THIS FRIDAY MORNING. THE RAINS
SHOULD WEAKEN AND END BEFORE LUNCHTIME LATE THIS FRIDAY MORNING.
IN THE MEANTIME...SOME SCT MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE DURING THIS
FRIDAY MORNING NEAR AND AFTER SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS TO THEN
DOMINATE DURING THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY SATURDAY
MORNING NEAR SUNRISE...MORE SCT TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH MVFR
CEILINGS AS WELL. /VIII/.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 71 85 70 82 / 30 30 30 60
MLU 69 86 69 85 / 10 30 20 30
DEQ 69 81 68 78 / 50 40 60 70
TXK 69 83 68 80 / 40 40 50 70
ELD 70 84 69 83 / 30 30 30 50
TYR 69 83 71 81 / 40 40 40 70
GGG 71 84 71 82 / 30 30 40 60
LFK 72 85 72 84 / 30 30 20 50
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1106 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS PARTS OF THE
REGION THIS MORNING...AND THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE WAY OF IT FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE
TO REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF OUR
REGION IS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE
PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE FLOODING THREAT WILL BE FAR MORE ENHANCED OVER THE
AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING. FOR
THE UPDATE...HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/WX/QPF...BUT
OTHERWISE...THE FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. /12/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 830 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015/
DISCUSSION...
WHAT IS LEFT OF THE OVERNIGHT MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD JUST
NORTH OF I-20 IN EXTREME EAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION REDEVELOPING FARTHER NORTHWEST. TWO CELLS OF
PRIMARY CONCERN. THE FIRST IS WHAT USED TO BE THE SWRN END OF THE
MCS...WHICH IS JUST EAST OF MINDEN LA AS OF 13Z.
THE SECOND STORM IS MOVING INTO CADDO PARISH AND OUT OF E TX.
EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRED EARLIER OVER HARRISON COUNTY. 6
INCHES OF RAIN WAS MEASURED NORTH OF HALLSVILLE AND CONSIDERABLE
FLASH FLOODING WAS ALSO REPORTED. THIS CELL IS DISSIPATING AS IT
MOVES INTO AIR THAT HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT STABILIZED BY COOL OUTFLOW
FROM THE OLD MCS TO THE EAST.
HAVE UPDATED POP/QPF/WX GRIDS THROUGH 18Z. /09/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015/
.CORRECTED TO INCLUDE AVIATION DISCUSSION...
DISCUSSION...
MCS CONTINUES TO MARCH EASTWARD BUT IS ALSO GRADUALLY WEAKENING.
LATEST HRRR HAS HANDLED THE CONVECTION QUITE WELL TONIGHT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF BEING TOO SLOW. RADAR TRENDS ALSO PROMOTE HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN THE HRRR IN REGARDS TO THE CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF OUR NRN LA PARISHES/SRN AR COUNTIES NORTH OF
I-20 WHICH SHOULD OCCUR AROUND 12-14Z BASED ON CURRENT SPEEDS.
HAVE ONCE INCLUDED PRE-FIRST PERIOD WORDING TO HANDLE POPS PRIOR
TO 12Z THIS MORNING. WILL LIKELY SEND A ZFP UPDATE AFTER THAT TIME
TO CLEAN UP THE TEXT.
WITH THE MCS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA EARLY IN THE
MORNING...LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE RAIN THIS MORNING SHOULD HAVE
PLENTY OF TIME TO RECOVER. RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COMBINED
WITH SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. YET ANOTHER MCS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM ACROSS SRN OK SOUTHWARD INTO TX. THE
NAM HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN TOO FAST OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH
MOVING CONVECTION INTO THE ARKLATEX. HOWEVER...OTHER MODELS ALSO
INDICATE SHWRS/TSTMS MOVING INTO AREAS NW OF A TYLER TO PRESCOTT
LINE PRIOR TO 09/06Z SO HAVE INCLUDED LIKELY POPS BEGINNING THIS
EVENING. A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS IN PLAY MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
DAMAGING WINDS.
SATURDAY`S FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH A REPEAT OF TODAY. ONE ROUND OF
CONVECTION SHOULD END DURING THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS. POPS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE GOING INTO
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS OVER THE AREA IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH EJECTING NEWD FROM THE ROCKIES INTO
KS/NE. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO APPROACH THE AREA WHICH SHOULD
PROVIDE AN ENHANCED FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT. SEVERE WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY INCLUDING A
THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
THE CONTINUED HIGH RAIN CHANCES POINT TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
BEING POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING COULD
EASILY BE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS MOST
LIKELY ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT INTERACTING WITH THE
FRONT AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC LOW OVER S TX WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED TIME
FRAME. /09/
AVIATION...
EXPECT SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS DEEP E TX...NW
LA...AND S AR THROUGH SUNRISE OF THIS FRIDAY MORNING. THE RAINS
SHOULD WEAKEN AND END BEFORE LUNCHTIME LATE THIS FRIDAY MORNING.
IN THE MEANTIME...SOME SCT MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE DURING THIS
FRIDAY MORNING NEAR AND AFTER SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS TO THEN
DOMINATE DURING THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY SATURDAY
MORNING NEAR SUNRISE...MORE SCT TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH MVFR
CEILINGS AS WELL. /VIII/.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 85 71 85 70 / 30 30 30 30
MLU 87 69 86 69 / 50 10 30 20
DEQ 83 69 81 68 / 50 50 40 60
TXK 84 69 83 68 / 50 40 40 50
ELD 85 70 84 69 / 50 30 30 30
TYR 85 69 83 71 / 30 40 40 40
GGG 85 71 84 71 / 30 30 30 40
LFK 87 72 85 72 / 30 30 30 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
215 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA MEANDERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BEFORE WEAKENING AND MOVING ONSHORE LATE SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE REMNANT LOW OF ANA WILL LIFT
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...FOG HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE VIRGINIA EASTERN SHORE AND
MOST OF THE MARYLAND LOWER EASTERN SHORE AS OF 1000 AM. FOGGY
CONDITIONS LINGER ACROSS THE MARYLAND BEACHES FROM ASSATEAGUE TO
OCEAN CITY AND SHOULD IMPROVE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE
LOCAL THIS MORNING AS SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY ROUGHLY 150 MILES OFF THE GA/SC COAST. FLOW REMAINS
WEAK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH HAS
ALLOWED DENSE FOG TO PERSIST OVER THE VA/MD ERN SHORE. LATEST
11-3.9U SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE DENSE FOG IS STRUGGLING
TO PUSH WWD OVER THE BAY AND INTO THE ERN VA PENINSULAS THANKS TO
DRIER AIR...BUT HAS SPREAD/DEVELOPED OVER THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY
AND SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON ROAD. THE TRENDS ARE CONTRADICTORY TO HI-RES
GUIDANCE...WHICH CONTINUES TO INDICATE FOG WILL ADVECT AS FAR AS
CNTRL VA. WILL CONTINUE WITH DENSE FOG ADVISORY OVER THE ERN SHORE
THRU 8AM...AND INCLUDE AREAS OF FOG ACROSS SOUTHEAST VA. AN SPS
HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. FOG DISSIPATES/LIFTS BY MID MORNING.
VORT LOBE VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR CURRENTLY LIFTING ACROSS ERN NC
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LIGHT RAIN SPREADING AS FAR NORTH AS THE
PAMLICO SOUND. LATEST RAP GUIDANCE LIFTS THE VORT MAX OVER THE SE
COUNTIES AROUND DAYBREAK...ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE (PWATS ~1.3
INCHES). HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO DEPICTS ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA. RESULTANT SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY PREVENT
MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
SE. WILL MAINTAIN LOW-END CHANCE POPS THIS MORNING...BUT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. BAND
DISSIPATES AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR OVER CNTRL VA.
ADDITIONAL BANDS OF ENERGY AND MOISTURE PROGGED TO ROUND THE NRN
PERIPHERY OF ANA THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THETA-E
ADVECTION IN TANDEM WITH TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S WILL PROVIDE FOR
MLCAPE VALUES AOB 500 J/KG ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES.
HOWEVER...LIMITATIONS OF ONSHORE FLOW...WEAK WIND FIELDS...MEAGER
LIFT AND WARM TEMPS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN LITTLE MORE THAN ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. SIMILAR THICKNESSES TO 24 HRS AGO AND
H85 TEMPS +1 STD DEV WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER WARM DAY. HIGHS INLAND
GENERALLY IN THE LOW 80S. COOLER IN THE SE DUE TO THICKER CLOUD
COVER AND ONSHORE FLOW...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S. EVEN
COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOCAL AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THRU
THE SHORT TERM. A POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
LIFT INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS SAT AS THE RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFF THE ERN
SEABOARD. WHILE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WEAK...MODELS PROG THE MEANDERING
ANA TO BEGIN LIFTING SLOWLY WNW SAT AND FINALLY ONSHORE OVER SC SUN.
FOR THE WAKEFIELD AREA...MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS FROM ANA
CONTINUE TO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...HIGH SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS. OTHERWISE...WARM
TEMPS AND OVERNIGHT PATCHY FOG PERSISTS.
HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SRN COUNTIES TONIGHT
AS PIECES OF ENERGY AND MOISTURE LIFT OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL FORCING EXPECT MOST LOCALES TO
REMAIN DRY. INCREASING MOISTURE SAT AND SUN ALONG WITH MEAGER
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE
INLAND WHERE CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED. BETTER COVERAGE
EXPECTED SUN AFTERNOON AS BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ARRIVES ONSHORE
IN TANDEM WITH DEEPER MOISTURE. MAIN LIMITATION CONTINUES TO BE
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WARM TEMPS
ALOFT. PWATS GENERALLY AOB 1.5 INCHES...WHICH COMBINED WITH ONLY
MODEST DYNAMICS WILL LIMIT TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS.
HIGHS SAT AND SUN REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
LOW 80S INLAND AND THE MID-UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. IMMEDIATE
COAST MAY ONLY WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S DUE TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S THRU THE SHORT TERM.
SKIES AVG PARTLY CLOUDY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WK/REMNANT SFC LO PRES FCST TO TRACK NE INVOF NC/VA/MD CST SUN
NGT/MON...THEN AWAY FM THE RGN THEREAFTER. OTRW...HI PRES RMNS
ANCHORED OFF THE SE CONUS CST. A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN TUE
NGT..THEN OFFSHORE WED. WILL CONT ISOLD/SCT POPS...ESP DAYTIME
HRS MON AND TUE...THEN TREND POPS DOWN W-E WED-THU POST CDFNT.
WARMER THAN NORMAL WX XPCD TO CONT SUN NGT THROUGH TUE...THEN BACK
CLOSER TO NORMAL WED/THU. HI TEMPS THROUGH TUE IN THE 80S...EXCEPT
COOLER 70S IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS IN THE 60S. HI TEMPS WED/THU
RANGING THROUGH THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN OUTER BAND AROUND SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA IS MOVING THROUGH ERN
NC AND THE VA TIDEWATER THIS AFTERNOON AND IS PRODUCING MVFR LEVEL
CLOUDS BETWEEN 1K - 2K FT. THE MODELS FORECAST THAT THIS BAND WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE BEGINNING TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE WATER SOURCE.
THE NEXT QUESTION IS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT. THE SFC HIGH TO
THE NORTH IS SLIDING FURTHER OFF THE COAST THE FLOW IS EXPECT TO
BECOME MORE E - SE OVERNIGHT. THE NE FLOW LAST NIGHT PRODUCED
SIGNIFICANT FOG FOR THE DELMARVA AND THE NAM IN PARTICULAR IS
SHOWING LIFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT. CAN SEE
CONDITIONS BEING FAVORABLE TO FOG AT SBY TONIGHT...BUT FURTHER
SOUTH...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THE AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME MORE
TROPICAL WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 60S TOWARD SUNRISE. SO
FOR NOW HAVE SHOWN SOME MVFR FOG FOR RIC/PHF AND VFR CONDITIONS AT
ORF/ECG. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT
12 HRS TO SEE IF CONDITIONS TO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT 6Z - 13Z.
WITH MOISTURE THINNING SAT MORNING AFTER 12Z...SHOULD SEE VFR
CONDITIONS AREA WIDE AS SUB TS ANA CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF THE SC
COAST.
NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS COMES ON MONDAY
AS THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANA MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
WITH 1 PM UPDATE...HAVE DROPPED DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS
VISIBILITIES...BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY APPEAR TO BE IMPROVING.
ALSO THE WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN AS STRONG AS MODELS INDICATED FOR
SOUTHERN WATERS AND SEAS ARE STILL BELOW 4 NORTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE WINDS REMAINING 10 TO 15 KT SO HAVE
DROPPED SCA NORTH OF VA/NC BORDER.
PVS DSCN:
DESPITE SUB TRPCL STORM ANA OFF THE SC COAST...MARINE CONDITIONS
ACROSS AKQ WATERS RTHR TRANQUIL ATTM AND WILL LIKELY STAY THAT WAY
AS THE SYSTM IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE MOVEMENT NORTH OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. EXCEPTION BEING SEAS WHERE THEY HAVE INCREASED TO
NEAR 5 FEET ACROSS NRN OUTER BANKS AND DATA SUGGESTS THAT SOME 5
FOOTERS MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS OFF THE VA BCH COAST LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT SO WILL CARRY SCA HEADLINES FOR SEAS MAINLY SOUTH OF
CAPE CHARLES LGHT THRU TONIGHT AND INTO SAT ACROSS NC CSTL WTRS.
SEAS PROGGED TO SUBSIDE A BIT AS THE CENTER OF ANA MOVES ONSHORE
THIS WEEKEND DESPITE THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. HAVE DROPPED
SEAS TO JUST BLO SCA LVLS FOR NOW WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT SEAS
MIGHT INCREASE ERLY NEXT WEEK AS THE REMNANT CIRCULATION GETS
DRAWN N-NE AHEAD OF APPRCHG TROF. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 15
KTS THRU SUN.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM/TMG
NEAR TERM...BMD/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...ESS/MPR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
435 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
A SFC LOW NEAR JAMES BAY IS DRAGGING A SFC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE CWA. BEHIND THE LOW IS A 1028MB HIGH OVER THE
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER. THE COLD FRONT MOVING W TO E ACROSS
THE AREA IS NOW E OF IRON MOUNTAIN. THE NRN PORTION OF THE FRONT
SURGED ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE TERRAIN OF
THE NCENTRAL. THIS MAKES THE FRONT EXTEND FROM E OF IRON MOUNTAIN TO
NEAR WFO MQT TO GWINN AND THEN E TO N OF NEWBERRY. SHOWERS...BUT SO
FAR NO THUNDER...HAVE DEVELOPED AS THE FRONT SURGEST S-SW INTO
NCENTRAL UPPER MI...AGAINS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. RUC DATA SUGGESTS
500J/KG OF SBCAPE HAS DEVELOPED NEAR IRON MOUNTAIN...BUT LESSER
AMOUNTS CLOSER TO 100J/KG ARE SHOWN WHERE CONVECTION COVERAGE IS
GREATER. CONVECTION MAY BE ABLE TO TAP INTO ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
SOME ISOLATED LIGHTNING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE PRECIP
TO DIE OUT AS THE FRONT MOVES ONTO LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND
SBCAPE DIMINISHES.
LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME N-NNE TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES
OVER THE CENTRAL CWA. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW CLOUDS IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF
NCENTRAL AND ERN UPPER MI THAT WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THE DAY SAT. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES OVER THE NCENTRAL SAT
MORNING...SO LEFT THOSE IN THE FORECAST. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY INLAND WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S. NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
A COOL PERIOD IS SHAPING UP FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM WITH A DAY OR
TWO OF MUCH BLO NORMAL TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK. RIDGE CURRENTLY
BUILDING OVER WRN CANADA WILL FORCE DOWNSTREAM TROFFING INTO ERN
CANADA THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH FEATURES WILL THEN BEGIN
TO WEAKEN AFTER MIDWEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A
LARGE POOL OF COLD AIR JUST TO THE N AND NE OF HERE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. MEANWHILE...CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE SW CONUS IS
EXPECTED TO OPEN UP AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW LIKELY TRACKING BY JUST S OF
UPPER MI...LOW-LEVEL NE WINDS WILL KEEP A SHALLOW TAP FROM THE COLD
AIR TO THE N AND NE....AND THEN AS THE LOW PASSES BY...THE COLD AIR
WILL DUMP INTO THE AREA THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THEREAFTER...
RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE WRN LAKES AS THE ERN CANADA TROF LIFTS NE
WILL SPELL A WARMING TREND LATE NEXT WEEK. AS FOR PCPN...THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK SHOULD BRING A MUCH NEEDED WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO UPPER MI SUN
THRU TUE...WITH THE SUN NIGHT/MON TIME FRAME LIKELY TO SEE THE BULK
OF THE RAINFALL. WITH THE COLD AIR FOLLOWING THE SYSTEM...SOME AREAS
WILL LIKELY SEE A LITTLE SNOW AS WELL. DRY WEATHER SHOULD THEN BE
THE RULE FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
BEGINNING SAT NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES WILL BE SETUP ACROSS
MANITOBA/NRN ONTARIO WHILE SFC LOW PRES BEGINS TO LIFT NE OUT OF THE
WRN HIGH PLAINS. UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOW CLOUD FCST ON SAT CARRIES
INTO SAT NIGHT...BUT WOULD THINK THAT AFTER A DAY OF EARLY MAY
DAYTIME HEATING ON SAT...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WOULD TEND TO MIX OUT TO
SOME DEGREE. THE NAM WHICH HAS BEEN MUCH MORE PERSISTENT IN HOLDING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA IS TRENDING DRIER...MORE INLINE
WITH THE GFS...SO THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH STRATOCU TO CONTEND WITH SAT
NIGHT. HIGHER UP...SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO
THE AREA.
ON SUN...MODELS SHOW A WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE TROF LIFTING INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL BE
MOVING TO NEBRASKA/SD. GOOD SURGE OF 700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
DECENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SCT SHRA SPREADING
NE INTO THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY. BEST CHC WILL BE OVER THE W
WHERE MORE SUSTAINED FORCING IS INDICATED.
SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...MID LEVEL LOW OVER NEBRASKA/SD SUN
EVENING WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. ASSSOCIATED
SFC LOW SHOULD MOVE ACROSS SRN MN INTO NRN WI AND THEN TO VCNTY OF
THE STRAITS. THERE HAS BEEN A TREND FROM MANY OF THE MODELS FOR A
SLIGHTLY FARTHER N TRACK SO THAT THE SFC LOW PASSES ACROSS SRN AND
ERN UPPER MI LATE MON AFTN/MON EVENING. THE TRACK OF THESE FEATURES
AND ACCOMPANYING DYNAMIC FORCING/DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW/PRECIPITABLE
WATER AOA 1 INCH INDICATE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST PERIODS OF RAIN. IF
THE TREND FOR A FARTHER N LOW TRACK IS VALID...BREAKS IN THE PCPN
WOULD BE MORE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE S. ON THE OTHER
HAND...IF THE LOW TRACK IS FARTHER S...MORE PERSISTENT PCPN WILL
OCCUR. AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE WIDESPREAD PCPN AMOUNTS IN THE 0.5
TO 1 INCH RANGE ARE LIKELY SUN NIGHT/MON. MAINTAINED A MENTION OF
SCHC THUNDER OVER THE SCNTRL SUN NGT INTO MON INLIGHT OF THE
POTENTIAL FARTHER N LOW TRACK AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT PUSHES
INTO THE AREA ON THE MODELS WITH THE FARTHER N TRACK. AS THE LOW
TRACKS TO AROUND THE STRAITS MON NIGHT...THE STEADIER/HEAVIER PCPN
WILL EXIT TO THE E. HOWEVER...MORE PERSISTENT LIGHT PCPN WILL
LINGER...MAINLY ACROSS THE N. AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO SPREAD S
BEHIND THE LOW (850MB TEMPS AS LOW AS AROUND -2C LATE MON NIGHT)...
SNOW MAY BEGIN TO MIX WITH THE RAIN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE W.
WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -3C TO AS LOW AS -6C TUE...LINGERING
LIGHT RAIN WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO MIX WITH SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE W AND NCNTRL BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF MORE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW/DRIER AIR CAUSES THE PCPN TO DIMINISH LATER IN THE
DAY. DAYTIME INSOLATION WILL CERAINLY LIMIT THE POTENTAIL FOR MUCH
IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION...EXCEPT PERHAPS ON GRASSY SFCS.
DRY/COOL WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR WED AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO
THE UPPER LAKES.
THU/FRI...RELIED MORE ON THE ENSEMBLES DUE TO RATHER SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATE WEEK FLOW PATTERN OVER N AMERICA. WHILE THE
GFS MAINTAINS MORE TROFFING IN ERN CANADA (SLOWER RELAXING OF NW
FLOW FOR THE UPPER LAKES)...THE ECMWF SHOWS QUICKER DEPARTURE OF THE
TROF WHICH ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES
AND REACH THE GREAT LAKES THU NIGHT. THE ENSEMBLE APPROACH RESULTS
IN RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CONNECTING UP
WITH THE WEAKENING WRN CANADA RIDGE. IN TURN...THIS CAUSES MORE
PERSISTENT SFC HIGH PRES LINGERING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND
THUS DRY WEATHER LIKELY PREVAILING FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
AT KIWD AND KCMX...A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER...BRINGING
LOWERED CIGS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DECREASES.
AT KSAW...THE COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH SHORTLY BEFORE 18Z...BRINGING
NE WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND SHOULD RESULT IN SOME DECREASED CIGS
THIS EVENING BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT EARLY TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH N-NNE WINDS LATE TONIGHT
AND SAT MORNING...RESULTING IN REDUCED CIGS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
SW-NW WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH TODAY WILL
DIMINISH SOME THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW 20KTS
THROUGH SAT NIGHT. AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
THE UPPER LAKES FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEST. GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
328 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
A SFC LOW NEAR JAMES BAY IS DRAGGING A SFC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE CWA. BEHIND THE LOW IS A 1028MB HIGH OVER THE
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER. THE COLD FRONT MOVING W TO E ACROSS
THE AREA IS NOW E OF IRON MOUNTAIN. THE NRN PORTION OF THE FRONT
SURGED ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE TERRAIN OF
THE NCENTRAL. THIS MAKES THE FRONT EXTEND FROM E OF IRON MOUNTAIN TO
NEAR WFO MQT TO GWINN AND THEN E TO N OF NEWBERRY. SHOWERS...BUT SO
FAR NO THUNDER...HAVE DEVELOPED AS THE FRONT SURGEST S-SW INTO
NCENTRAL UPPER MI...AGAINS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. RUC DATA SUGGESTS
500J/KG OF SBCAPE HAS DEVELOPED NEAR IRON MOUNTAIN...BUT LESSER
AMOUNTS CLOSER TO 100J/KG ARE SHOWN WHERE CONVECTION COVERAGE IS
GREATER. CONVECTION MAY BE ABLE TO TAP INTO ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
SOME ISOLATED LIGHTNING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE PRECIP
TO DIE OUT AS THE FRONT MOVES ONTO LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND
SBCAPE DIMINISHES.
LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME N-NNE TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES
OVER THE CENTRAL CWA. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW CLOUDS IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF
NCENTRAL AND ERN UPPER MI THAT WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THE DAY SAT. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES OVER THE NCENTRAL SAT
MORNING...SO LEFT THOSE IN THE FORECAST. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY INLAND WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S. NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE LONGER TERM FOCUS ON COVERAGE OF LO CLDS
ON SAT/SAT NGT AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A WELCOME WDSPRD PCPN
EVENT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE CLOSED LO NOW OVER THE DESERT SW AND
ACCOMPANYING SFC LO PRES LIFT NE TOWARD THE UPR LKS. MUCH COOLER WX
WL DOMINATE UPR MI DURING MOST OF THE LONGER TERM.
SAT...SINCE THE UPR FLOW IS FCST TO REMAIN SW BTWN MEAN RDG OVER THE
SE CONUS AND GENERAL TROFFING IN CENTRAL NAMERICA...THE COLD FNT
ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING SFC LO IN QUEBEC IS PROGGED TO STALL OVER
THE LOWER GRT LKS. SOME RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN A LO PRES
RIDING ALONG THIS BNDRY AND BRINGING SOME PCPN TO MAINLY THE SE
CWA...BUT THE BULK OF THE LATEST RUNS NOW INDICATE THIS LO/PCPN WL
REMAIN TO THE SE OF UPR MI. DESPITE THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MID LVL
DRYING...LINGERING LLVL MSTR IN NE FLOW ON THE SE FLANK OF SFC HI
PRES OVER SCENTRAL CANADA WL LIKELY BRING SOME LO CLDS OVER THE
NCENTRAL AND E. PER THE 00Z NAM/CNDN FCST...DID MAINTAIN A MENTION
OF SOME SPRINKLES OVER THE NCENTRAL WHERE UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT WL
BE MAXIMIZED. WITH LLVL NE FLOW OFF THE CHILLY LK WATERS...HI TEMPS
NEAR LK SUP IN THIS AREA WL BE HARD PRESSED TO GET OUT OF THE 40S.
WITH MORE SUNSHINE OVER THE W AND SCENTRAL...HI TEMPS SHOULD APRCH
60 WITH MIXING TO H85 ON FCST SDNGS.
SAT NGT...HI PRES IN SCENTRAL CANADA IS FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY E INTO
FAR NW ONTARIO WHILE CLOSED LO LIFTING OUT OF THE DESERT SW CAUSES
SFC LO PRES IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO BEGIN SHIFTING NEWD. AS THE
LLVL FLOW OVER THE UPR LKS BEGINS TO VEER A BIT IN THE PRESENCE OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING...THE SC IMPACTING THE NCENTRAL AND E MAY TEND TO
DRIFT TOWARD THE W AND OVERSPREAD ALL BUT THE W WHERE THE LLVL ENE
FLOW DOWNSLOPES BY 12Z SUN. SOME HI CLDS WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE
CLOSED LO/SFC LO PRES MAY REACH THE WRN CWA BY DAYBREAK ON SUN.
SUN...ALTHOUGH CONTINUED VEERING LLVL FLOW TOWARD THE E WOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME LLVL MSTR/AT LEAST BKN LO CLDS TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE CWA...
SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW SOME LLVL DRYING ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE HI
IN FAR NW ONTARIO SUFFICIENT TO BREAK UP THIS CLD EXCEPT OVER THE
SCNTRAL. EVEN IF/WHERE THIS SC IS ABSENT...MID/HI CLDS WL BE INCRSG
IN DIFFLUENT UPR FLOW/INCRSG ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF CLOSED
LO MOVING NEWD THRU THE PLAINS. WITH ARRIVAL OF MORE VIGOROUS DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC IN THE AFTN...MOST OF THE MODELS DO
GENERATE SOME PCPN OVER AT LEAST THE WRN CWA IN THE AFTN...SO WL
MAINTAIN FCST HIER CHC POPS IN THAT AREA.
SUN NGT THRU TUE...AS NEGATIVELTY TILTED CLOSED LO OPENS UP AND
LIFTS ENEWD INTO THE UPR LKS BY TUE...SFC LO PRES IS PROGGED TO MOVE
ENEWD FM SE SDAKOTA ON SUN EVNG INTO WI BY LATE MON AND THEN INTO SE
ONTARIO BY TUE MRNG. THE TRACK OF THESE FEATURES AND ACCOMPANYING
DYNAMIC FORCING/DIFFLUENT UPR FLOW/DEEP CYC FLOW/PWAT AOA 1 INCH
INDICATE THERE WL BE AT LEAST PERIODS OF RA. IF THE UPR LO DRIFTS A
BIT FARTHER TO THE N...BREAKS IN THE PCPN WOULD BE MORE LIKELY
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN TIER. ON THE OTHER HAND...IF THE UPR LO
TRACKS A BIT FARTHER TO THE S...A MORE PERSISTENT CCB WOULD BRING
ABOUT MORE CONTINUOUS PCPN. THE LATEST CPC HAZARDS CHART INDICATES A
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RA OVER THE ENTIRE CWA. DID INTRODUCE A
SCHC OF TS OVER THE FAR SCENTRAL SUN NGT INTO MON AS THE 00Z ECMWF
SHOWS A BIT FARTHER N TRACK OF THE UPR LO/HIER INSTABILITY OVER THAT
AREA. AS THE SFC LO EXITS TO THE E ON TUE...THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER
AIR WITH H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -5C MAY ALLOW THE PCPN TO MIX WITH SN
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NCNTRL AND W BEFORE THE EXIT
OF THE FORCING/ARRIVAL OF MORE ACYC FLOW CAUSES THE PCPN TO DIMINISH
LATER IN THE DAY. SINCE THE COLDER AIR WL ARRIVE AFTER 12Z
TUE...DAYTIME INSOLATION SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTAIL FOR MUCH IF ANY
SN ACCUM EXCEPT PERHAPS ON GRASSY SFCS.
WED/THU...CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME APRNT DURING THIS
LATER PORTION OF THE FCST. THE 00Z GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
MAINTAINING A LARGER SCALE TROF/COLDER AIR THRU WED...THEN SHOWS AN
UPR RDG/DRIER AIR DOMINATING THE AREA ON THU. THE 00Z ECMWF ON THE
OTHER HAND SHOWS BUILDING HGTS MUCH FASTER ON WED...AND THEN BRINGS
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/SOME PCPN TOWARD THE AREA ON THU. WL RELY ON THE
MODEL CONSENSUS FCST THIS FAR OUT IN THE FCST PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
AT KIWD AND KCMX...A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER...BRINGING
LOWERED CIGS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DECREASES.
AT KSAW...THE COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH SHORTLY BEFORE 18Z...BRINGING
NE WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND SHOULD RESULT IN SOME DECREASED CIGS
THIS EVENING BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT EARLY TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH N-NNE WINDS LATE TONIGHT
AND SAT MORNING...RESULTING IN REDUCED CIGS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
SW-NW WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH TODAY WILL
DIMINISH SOME THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW 20KTS
THROUGH SAT NIGHT. AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
THE UPPER LAKES FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEST. GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
200 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
WARM AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FROM
TODAY RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE UP ALONG A FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING BACK
AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA. THESE WAVES WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER ON MONDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL IT. MUCH COOLER
AIR WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE IN ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
OUR MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS DETERMINING TIMING OF WAVES OF
BETTER CHCS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND LOOKING AT ANY KIND OF
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. WE ARE THINKING THAT A WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THREAT LOOKS QUITE LIMITED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS.
WE WILL SEE A LITTLE BETTER CHC FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND A STORM
TODAY...COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE MUCH BETTER CHC WILL COME
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING FOR THE AREA. THE MOISTURE AXIS
HAS SHIFTED OVER THE AREA...HOWEVER IT IS IN THE PROCESS OF
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES IN. THIS IS OCCURRING AS THE BETTER LLJ IS
STAYING WELL NORTH OF THE CWFA THIS MORNING AND MOVING AWAY.
WE WILL SEE ANOTHER LLJ OF 30+ KNOTS MOVE IN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN TO MUCH OF
THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT MORNING BEFORE IT MOVES NORTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA ON SAT AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ACTUALLY DROP THE
FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA AND PROVIDE FOR A SOMEWHAT DRIER PERIOD
FOR SAT NIGHT.
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
DURING THE DAY ON SUN. WE WILL SEE A STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW TAKE
SHAPE OVER THE REGION AS THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO EJECT TO THE E/NE
FROM THE DESERT SW. THIS SCENARIO WILL HELP TO PUSH THE STALLED OUT
FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. A NICE SLUG OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WILL MOVE UP INTO THE AREA...HELPING TO FOCUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LOOKING REAL LIKELY FOR THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. INSTABILITY FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW IS GENERALLY A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE WITH LI/S OF AROUND -2 TO -4C. NO REAL THICK
CAPE PROFILES TO HELP WITH LARGE HAIL. WIND FIELDS ARE GENERALLY ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE...PRODUCING DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF UNDER 25-30
KNOTS. THE WARM FRONT COMING UP ON SUN IS A LITTLE CONCERNING. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS A BIT BETTER ALSO ON SUN AS THE MID LEVEL JET STREAK
MOVES CLOSER TO THE STATE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
IT WOULD SEEM STRONG STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE MONDAY AS THE PRIMARY
SYSTEM COMES OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND PHASES WITH
THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. BEYOND THAT COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW AT
LEAST INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK WELL WEST OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AS IT
COMES OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS
SEEMS MORE RELUCTANT TO BRING SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN INTO THE WARM
SECTOR OF THE STORM. IF THAT TURNS OUT TO BE TRUE THE SEVERE
STORMS WOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY. STILL ALL MODELS SHOW
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN GETS INTO THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION TO THE
UPPER JET AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH WISCONSIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WE STILL HAVE A 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET OVER EASTERN
LOWER MICHIGAN BY LATE AFTERNOON...THERE IS AT LEAST 1000 J/KG OF
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AND THERE IS 50 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. IT
REMAINS A QUESTION OF JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT ACTUALLY
GETS MONDAY. IT REMAINS CLEAR SEVERE WEATHER IS STILL A REAL
THREAT FOR SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
BEYOND THAT ALL MODELS AGREE THE COLD AIR COMES IN FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. NOW THOUGH THE ECMWF SHOWS A SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES MOVING INTO OUR AREA BY THURSDAY.
THIS SEEMS TO FAST TO ME AND THE ECMWF WAS NOT DOING THIS PREVIOULSY
SO I DID NOT ACCOUNT FOR IT IN OUR ZONE FORECAST.
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH WHAT HAPPENS TO TYPHOON NOUL. IT SEEMS TO WANT
TO RECUVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. LAST YEAR EVERY TIME THIS HAPPENED WE AND
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR ABOUT A WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE I-96
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND COULD LINGER FOR THE I-94 AREA
INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS
UNTIL EARLY EVENING.
A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING IN MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS
THAT WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS FOR THE CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS...THE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GREATEST ALONG I-94
WHERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY MORNING. LEFT STORMS
OUT OF THE TAFS ALONG THE I-96 REGION ALTHOUGH SOME VERY ISOLATED
THUNDER IS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 746 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
BASED ON HIGHER DEW POINTS MOVING OVER COLD LAKE MICHIGAN WATERS
AND THE HRRR SHOWING FOG BECOMING EXTENSIVE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
TODAY I ADDED FOG TO THE NEAR SHORE WEATHER GRIDS. CURRENT WEB
CANS DO NOT SHOW MUCH FOG YET BUT I DO BELIEVE WE WILL SEE THE FOG
DEVELOP OVER TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 111 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
RIVER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE RUNNING NEAR NORMAL
FLOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE.
SOME RIVERS FURTHER INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND MID-
MICHIGAN ARE RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...SUCH AS THE RED CEDAR
RIVER AT EAST LANSING...THE GRAND RIVER AT IONIA...AND THE MUSKEGON
RIVER AT EVART.
RIVER LEVEL RISES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK. 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MINOR FLOODING IN URBAN
AND LOW-LYING AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WE HAVE
A FAIRLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. UPPER AIR CLIMATOLOGY
INDICATES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF THE 75TH
PERCENTILE. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MID TO UPPER 60S NOTED IN NW INDIANA AND NE ILLINOIS. ANY
CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS OR STORMS THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE FAIRLY
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS.
A DRY PERIOD IS FORECAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY. STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY...WHICH WILL HAVE TO POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING. MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
COULD OCCUR IF THE SAME AREAS SEE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM
STORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS WELL AS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
146 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED SW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM
THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...A
COLD FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN WI FROM
LOW PRES OVER NW ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL CONV NEAR THE
FRONT AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NW WI
SUPPORTED SCT/ISOLD SHRA INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI. WITH NIGHTTIME
COOLING...THE CONVECTION HAD WEAKENED ENOUGH SO THAT NO LIGHTNING WAS
OBSERVED OVER THE REGION.
TODAY...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE EAST AS THE LOW MOVES
TOWARD JAMES BAY. MODELS AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT SCT/ISOLD
SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH WRN UPPER MI. EXPECT
HIGHER SHRA/TSRA CHANCES OVER THE CNTRL AND EAST...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING
WITH THE POTENTIAL TO INTERACT WITH LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES. WITH
MLCAPE VALUES OF ONLY 400-800 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30-35
KNOTS...CONDITIONS WILL MARGINAL FOR ANY STRONGER STORMS. THERE IS
ALSO STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AMOUNT CLOUD COVER AND
HEATING/INSTABILITY.
TONIGHT...AFTER THE SHRA/TSRA MOVE OUT OF THE ERN CWA DURING THE
EVENING...EXPECT DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE CONTINUED
TREND OF KEEPING SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF UPPER MI. SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES OR PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY
DEVELOP LATE NORTH CENTRAL WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
PERIOD OF CYCLONIC NNE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE LONGER TERM FOCUS ON COVERAGE OF LO CLDS
ON SAT/SAT NGT AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A WELCOME WDSPRD PCPN
EVENT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE CLOSED LO NOW OVER THE DESERT SW AND
ACCOMPANYING SFC LO PRES LIFT NE TOWARD THE UPR LKS. MUCH COOLER WX
WL DOMINATE UPR MI DURING MOST OF THE LONGER TERM.
SAT...SINCE THE UPR FLOW IS FCST TO REMAIN SW BTWN MEAN RDG OVER THE
SE CONUS AND GENERAL TROFFING IN CENTRAL NAMERICA...THE COLD FNT
ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING SFC LO IN QUEBEC IS PROGGED TO STALL OVER
THE LOWER GRT LKS. SOME RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN A LO PRES
RIDING ALONG THIS BNDRY AND BRINGING SOME PCPN TO MAINLY THE SE
CWA...BUT THE BULK OF THE LATEST RUNS NOW INDICATE THIS LO/PCPN WL
REMAIN TO THE SE OF UPR MI. DESPITE THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MID LVL
DRYING...LINGERING LLVL MSTR IN NE FLOW ON THE SE FLANK OF SFC HI
PRES OVER SCENTRAL CANADA WL LIKELY BRING SOME LO CLDS OVER THE
NCENTRAL AND E. PER THE 00Z NAM/CNDN FCST...DID MAINTAIN A MENTION
OF SOME SPRINKLES OVER THE NCENTRAL WHERE UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT WL
BE MAXIMIZED. WITH LLVL NE FLOW OFF THE CHILLY LK WATERS...HI TEMPS
NEAR LK SUP IN THIS AREA WL BE HARD PRESSED TO GET OUT OF THE 40S.
WITH MORE SUNSHINE OVER THE W AND SCENTRAL...HI TEMPS SHOULD APRCH
60 WITH MIXING TO H85 ON FCST SDNGS.
SAT NGT...HI PRES IN SCENTRAL CANADA IS FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY E INTO
FAR NW ONTARIO WHILE CLOSED LO LIFTING OUT OF THE DESERT SW CAUSES
SFC LO PRES IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO BEGIN SHIFTING NEWD. AS THE
LLVL FLOW OVER THE UPR LKS BEGINS TO VEER A BIT IN THE PRESENCE OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING...THE SC IMPACTING THE NCENTRAL AND E MAY TEND TO
DRIFT TOWARD THE W AND OVERSPREAD ALL BUT THE W WHERE THE LLVL ENE
FLOW DOWNSLOPES BY 12Z SUN. SOME HI CLDS WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE
CLOSED LO/SFC LO PRES MAY REACH THE WRN CWA BY DAYBREAK ON SUN.
SUN...ALTHOUGH CONTINUED VEERING LLVL FLOW TOWARD THE E WOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME LLVL MSTR/AT LEAST BKN LO CLDS TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE CWA...
SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW SOME LLVL DRYING ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE HI
IN FAR NW ONTARIO SUFFICIENT TO BREAK UP THIS CLD EXCEPT OVER THE
SCNTRAL. EVEN IF/WHERE THIS SC IS ABSENT...MID/HI CLDS WL BE INCRSG
IN DIFFLUENT UPR FLOW/INCRSG ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF CLOSED
LO MOVING NEWD THRU THE PLAINS. WITH ARRIVAL OF MORE VIGOROUS DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC IN THE AFTN...MOST OF THE MODELS DO
GENERATE SOME PCPN OVER AT LEAST THE WRN CWA IN THE AFTN...SO WL
MAINTAIN FCST HIER CHC POPS IN THAT AREA.
SUN NGT THRU TUE...AS NEGATIVELTY TILTED CLOSED LO OPENS UP AND
LIFTS ENEWD INTO THE UPR LKS BY TUE...SFC LO PRES IS PROGGED TO MOVE
ENEWD FM SE SDAKOTA ON SUN EVNG INTO WI BY LATE MON AND THEN INTO SE
ONTARIO BY TUE MRNG. THE TRACK OF THESE FEATURES AND ACCOMPANYING
DYNAMIC FORCING/DIFFLUENT UPR FLOW/DEEP CYC FLOW/PWAT AOA 1 INCH
INDICATE THERE WL BE AT LEAST PERIODS OF RA. IF THE UPR LO DRIFTS A
BIT FARTHER TO THE N...BREAKS IN THE PCPN WOULD BE MORE LIKELY
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN TIER. ON THE OTHER HAND...IF THE UPR LO
TRACKS A BIT FARTHER TO THE S...A MORE PERSISTENT CCB WOULD BRING
ABOUT MORE CONTINUOUS PCPN. THE LATEST CPC HAZARDS CHART INDICATES A
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RA OVER THE ENTIRE CWA. DID INTRODUCE A
SCHC OF TS OVER THE FAR SCENTRAL SUN NGT INTO MON AS THE 00Z ECMWF
SHOWS A BIT FARTHER N TRACK OF THE UPR LO/HIER INSTABILITY OVER THAT
AREA. AS THE SFC LO EXITS TO THE E ON TUE...THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER
AIR WITH H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -5C MAY ALLOW THE PCPN TO MIX WITH SN
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NCNTRL AND W BEFORE THE EXIT
OF THE FORCING/ARRIVAL OF MORE ACYC FLOW CAUSES THE PCPN TO DIMINISH
LATER IN THE DAY. SINCE THE COLDER AIR WL ARRIVE AFTER 12Z
TUE...DAYTIME INSOLATION SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTAIL FOR MUCH IF ANY
SN ACCUM EXCEPT PERHAPS ON GRASSY SFCS.
WED/THU...CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME APRNT DURING THIS
LATER PORTION OF THE FCST. THE 00Z GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
MAINTAINING A LARGER SCALE TROF/COLDER AIR THRU WED...THEN SHOWS AN
UPR RDG/DRIER AIR DOMINATING THE AREA ON THU. THE 00Z ECMWF ON THE
OTHER HAND SHOWS BUILDING HGTS MUCH FASTER ON WED...AND THEN BRINGS
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/SOME PCPN TOWARD THE AREA ON THU. WL RELY ON THE
MODEL CONSENSUS FCST THIS FAR OUT IN THE FCST PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
AT KIWD AND KCMX...A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER...BRINGING
LOWERED CIGS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DECREASES.
AT KSAW...THE COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH SHORTLY BEFORE 18Z...BRINGING
NE WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND SHOULD RESULT IN SOME DECREASED CIGS
THIS EVENING BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT EARLY TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH N-NNE WINDS LATE TONIGHT
AND SAT MORNING...RESULTING IN REDUCED CIGS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY...WINDS WILL
BECOME NW TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AREAS OF FOG WILL FORM
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AS PRECIPITATION FALLS INTO THE ALREADY MOIST AIR
BELOW A STRONG INVERSION. AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE UPPER LAKES FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST. SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
111 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
WARM AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FROM
TODAY RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE UP ALONG A FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING BACK
AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA. THESE WAVES WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER ON MONDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL IT. MUCH COOLER
AIR WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE IN ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
OUR MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS DETERMINING TIMING OF WAVES OF
BETTER CHCS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND LOOKING AT ANY KIND OF
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. WE ARE THINKING THAT A WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THREAT LOOKS QUITE LIMITED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS.
WE WILL SEE A LITTLE BETTER CHC FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND A STORM
TODAY...COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE MUCH BETTER CHC WILL COME
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING FOR THE AREA. THE MOISTURE AXIS
HAS SHIFTED OVER THE AREA...HOWEVER IT IS IN THE PROCESS OF
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES IN. THIS IS OCCURRING AS THE BETTER LLJ IS
STAYING WELL NORTH OF THE CWFA THIS MORNING AND MOVING AWAY.
WE WILL SEE ANOTHER LLJ OF 30+ KNOTS MOVE IN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN TO MUCH OF
THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT MORNING BEFORE IT MOVES NORTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA ON SAT AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ACTUALLY DROP THE
FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA AND PROVIDE FOR A SOMEWHAT DRIER PERIOD
FOR SAT NIGHT.
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
DURING THE DAY ON SUN. WE WILL SEE A STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW TAKE
SHAPE OVER THE REGION AS THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO EJECT TO THE E/NE
FROM THE DESERT SW. THIS SCENARIO WILL HELP TO PUSH THE STALLED OUT
FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. A NICE SLUG OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WILL MOVE UP INTO THE AREA...HELPING TO FOCUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LOOKING REAL LIKELY FOR THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. INSTABILITY FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW IS GENERALLY A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE WITH LI/S OF AROUND -2 TO -4C. NO REAL THICK
CAPE PROFILES TO HELP WITH LARGE HAIL. WIND FIELDS ARE GENERALLY ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE...PRODUCING DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF UNDER 25-30
KNOTS. THE WARM FRONT COMING UP ON SUN IS A LITTLE CONCERNING. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS A BIT BETTER ALSO ON SUN AS THE MID LEVEL JET STREAK
MOVES CLOSER TO THE STATE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
IT WOULD SEEM STRONG STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE MONDAY AS THE PRIMARY
SYSTEM COMES OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND PHASES WITH
THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. BEYOND THAT COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW AT
LEAST INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK WELL WEST OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AS IT
COMES OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS
SEEMS MORE RELUCTANT TO BRING SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN INTO THE WARM
SECTOR OF THE STORM. IF THAT TURNS OUT TO BE TRUE THE SEVERE
STORMS WOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY. STILL ALL MODELS SHOW
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN GETS INTO THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION TO THE
UPPER JET AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH WISCONSIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WE STILL HAVE A 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET OVER EASTERN
LOWER MICHIGAN BY LATE AFTERNOON...THERE IS AT LEAST 1000 J/KG OF
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AND THERE IS 50 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. IT
REMAINS A QUESTION OF JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT ACTUALLY
GETS MONDAY. IT REMAINS CLEAR SEVERE WEATHER IS STILL A REAL
THREAT FOR SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
BEYOND THAT ALL MODELS AGREE THE COLD AIR COMES IN FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. NOW THOUGH THE ECMWF SHOWS A SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES MOVING INTO OUR AREA BY THURSDAY.
THIS SEEMS TO FAST TO ME AND THE ECMWF WAS NOT DOING THIS PREVIOULSY
SO I DID NOT ACCOUNT FOR IT IN OUR ZONE FORECAST.
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH WHAT HAPPENS TO TYPHOON NOUL. IT SEEMS TO WANT
TO RECUVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. LAST YEAR EVERY TIME THIS HAPPENED WE AND
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR ABOUT A WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
MOSTLY VFR CONDTIONS TODAY BUT SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR AND EAST OF US-131. THEY WILL BE
TOO SCATTERED TO PUT IN THE TAFS SO I HAVE VCTS UNTIL THE DETAILS
CAN BE ADDED ONCE THE STORMS DEVELOP.
A WAVE ON THE FRONT WILL BRING STEADY RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THIS
COULD BE A SOAKER. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THE RISK
IT TO LOW TO EVEN UP VCTS AT THIS POINT. MOSTLY JUST RAIN...LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG BY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 746 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
BASED ON HIGHER DEW POINTS MOVING OVER COLD LAKE MICHIGAN WATERS
AND THE HRRR SHOWING FOG BECOMING EXTENSIVE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
TODAY I ADDED FOG TO THE NEAR SHORE WEATHER GRIDS. CURRENT WEB
CANS DO NOT SHOW MUCH FOG YET BUT I DO BELIEVE WE WILL SEE THE FOG
DEVELOP OVER TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 111 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
RIVER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE RUNNING NEAR NORMAL
FLOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE.
SOME RIVERS FURTHER INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND MID-
MICHIGAN ARE RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...SUCH AS THE RED CEDAR
RIVER AT EAST LANSING...THE GRAND RIVER AT IONIA...AND THE MUSKEGON
RIVER AT EVART.
RIVER LEVEL RISES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK. 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MINOR FLOODING IN URBAN
AND LOW-LYING AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WE HAVE
A FAIRLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. UPPER AIR CLIMATOLOGY
INDICATES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF THE 75TH
PERCENTILE. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MID TO UPPER 60S NOTED IN NW INDIANA AND NE ILLINOIS. ANY
CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS OR STORMS THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE FAIRLY
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS.
A DRY PERIOD IS FORECAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY. STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY...WHICH WILL HAVE TO POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING. MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
COULD OCCUR IF THE SAME AREAS SEE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM
STORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS WELL AS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
321 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015
CLEARING HAS BEEN SLOW THIS AFTERNOON...BUT HAS BEEN INCREASING
OVER THE PAST HOUR. CLEARING WAS MOST PRONOUNCED FROM THE
BRAINERD LAKES REGION EAST NORTHEAST TO THE TWIN PORTS. 20Z
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWED CLEARING DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF
THE ARROWHEAD WITH MORE HOLES OPENING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. THE RAP HAS DONE A DECENT JOB WITH THIS...AS EARLY RUNS
SHOWED AN ACCELERATION IN THE CLEARING BY LATE AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE QUESTIONS ON HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT.
THE RAP AND NAM SUGGEST CLOUDS MAY NOT CLEAR OVER PARTS OF FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA OR WILL MOVE BACK IN OVERNIGHT AS THE FLOW
VEERS TO NORTHEAST. WE DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER
NORTHERN/NORTHEAST MINNESOTA TONIGHT...BUT DID NOT GO AS HIGH AS
THE RAP WOULD SUGGEST AT THIS TIME. THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WILL
HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...AND THEY MAY HAVE TO
BE ADJUSTED THROUGH THE EVENING AS CLOUD TRENDS BECOME CLEARER.
IF THE LOWER CLOUDS DO DEVELOP TONIGHT...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO THIN
THROUGH THE DAY BUT SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IS THEN EXPECTED.
MORE CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP DUE TO A SHORTWAVE AND AREA OF FGEN
FORCING...MAINLY OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THE FORCING WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR
PRECIP TO DEVELOP. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER
FIFTIES TO MIDDLE SIXTIES...WARMEST FAR SOUTH. IT WILL BE COOLER
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW.
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH SATURDAY
NIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT FAR SOUTHERN AREAS MAY SEE
SOME RAIN LATE. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AROUND
LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO INCREASING PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF THE LOW.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015
STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A DEEP LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL CREATE
A STRONG AND ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. THIS RAIN
GO-ROUND IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO OUR PAST RAIN...WITH THE STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL JET CAUSING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO SPREAD
NORTH. AS THE SFC LOW PASSES EAST...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THIS LOW COMING
UP IS MUCH STRONGER. AS A RESULT THE EAST WINDS THAT WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE LOW WILL BE MUCH STRONGER. WITH THE LOW FORECAST TO BE
SOMEWHERE OVER OR NEARING SOUTHERN MN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THERE WILL
BE STRONG EAST WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH FORECAST 925-850
MB WINDS UP TO 50 KTS...LOOKS LIKE A BLUSTERY AND WAVY DAY ON LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE LOW`S MOVEMENT INTO NRN WI ON MONDAY WILL PROLONG THE
STRONG EAST WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING WITH
THE LOW WELL EAST OF THE AREA.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS SPLIT WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH NOT AFFECTING
US UNTIL LATER. ITS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH THAT WILL BRING THE DEEP TROF
ACROSS THE MIDWEST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH THE SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS MUCH MORE BULLISH
ON SUBSEQUENT PRECIPITATION AS THE NAM AND ECMWF BRING IN A DRY SLOT
TO CUT DOWN ON PRECIP AMOUNTS.
BY MONDAY NIGHT THERE WILL BE SOME COLD ENOUGH AIR TO HAVE SNOW.
WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW...WE WILL SEE COLUMN TEMPS
TO PLUMMET WELL BELOW FREEZING AND BELOW THE ICE CRYSTAL TEMPS.
ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015
MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR... SCATTERED CLOUDS... BETWEEN 20Z AND
22Z. MOST OF THE SITES WILL REMAIN SKC OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER...THERE
COULD BE SOME SPOTTY MVFR CIGS AFTER 08Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 41 55 39 42 / 10 10 10 70
INL 36 58 37 52 / 0 10 10 40
BRD 40 64 43 48 / 0 0 20 80
HYR 41 64 41 54 / 10 0 10 70
ASX 41 53 36 48 / 10 10 10 60
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
114 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015
SKY COVER WAS INCREASED WITH A LARGE AREA OF MVFR-LOW VFR STRATUS
FROM THE NORTHWEST CORNER SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
AND POINTS EAST. HRRR HANDLES THIS THE BEST AND WAS UTILIZED FOR
SKY GRIDS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MAIN STORY WILL BE POTENTIAL STORM SET TO ARRIVE TOMORROW.
PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF 12Z MODELS SHOWS A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD SHIFT
WITH THE PRECIPITATION BAND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. SPS WAS
UPDATED A FEW HOURS AGO.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 909 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015
INHERITED FORECAST LOOKING GOOD. ALLOWED THE FROST ADVISORY TO
EXPIRE EARLIER WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE INCREASE. OTHERWISE PARTLY
SUNNY AND DRY TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. PRECIPITATION STARTS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
WEST THIS AFTERNOON...HUNDRETH AT BEST BUT MORE LIKELY TRACE
AMOUNTS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. LATEST HOURLY TEMPS DROPPED A DEGREE OR
TWO MOST LOCATIONS...NEAR 30 NORTH AND LOW/MID 30S ELSEWHERE.
FROST ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 8 AM CDT. NO CHANGES MADE OTHER
THAN BLENDING TO LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015
MAIN HIGHLIGHT IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD IS THE ONGOING FROST
ADVISORY. CLOUDS VARYING BETWEEN PARTLY CLOUDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE RESIDING IN THE
NORTHWEST WITH MID 30S WHICH IS LIKELY RESULTING IN AREAS OF
FROST. WILL LET THE ADVISORY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT
UPDATE CYCLE. WILL STILL MENTION AN ISOLATED SHOWER THROUGH 12Z
IN THE EAST CENTRAL ZONES AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRANSITIONS INTO
THIS AREA. THE HRRR AND NMM WEST STILL SHOW A THREAT FOR THIS.
FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...MAIN HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE
INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION/RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION
AREAS OF FROST WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE OF
THE PRECIPITATION AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE INTO IDAHO.
FURTHER DOWNSTREAM INTO NORTH DAKOTA...A CONSOLIDATED SOUTHWEST
FLOW WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES SHIFTING THROUGH GENERATING
MID LEVEL CLOUDS. EXPECTING A DRY DAY TODAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
PEELING OFF THE UPPER LOW MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE SLIDES INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 06Z SATURDAY. WITH THE DEFORMATION
ZONE/POOLING OF MOISTURE IN PLACE...INCREASED VERTICAL MOTION OVER
THIS AREA PER 850-300MB OMEGA FIELD/DIFFERENTIAL POSITIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT.
VERTICAL MOTION WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF A 90KT/300MB JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO
SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN AND NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THE RESULT WILL
BE FOR SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWEST AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXTENDING
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN INVOLVES DEEP STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY LIFTING
FROM 4 CORNERS REGION SATURDAY MORNING TO SOUTH DAKOTA BY 00Z
MONDAY. 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE SHIFTED FARTHER NORTH WITH
SYSTEM WITH PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ND NOW LOOKING AT POSSIBLE
ACCUMULATING SNOW...MAINLY ON SUNDAY. NAM REMAINS A BIT OF AN
OUTLIER...NOT AS FAR NORTH WITH QPF...THOUGH GFS/NAM/SREF ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT. GFS DEPICTS 850MB TEMPS AROUND -2C FROM
SOUTHWEST THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL ND BY 18Z SUNDAY COINCIDENT WITH
BROAD AREA OF STRONG 700MB FRONTOGENESIS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. WPC
WINTER WEATHER DESK DEPICTS AREA OF 6 INCHES PLUS ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHWEST FOR DAY 3 /SUNDAY/ WITH THE MAIN BULLSEYE FOR HEAVIEST
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SURFACE TEMPS
NEAR/ABOVE FREEZING MAY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS. NO HEADLINES PLANNED
AT THIS TIME THOUGH THEY MAY BE NEEDED IF MODELS MAINTAIN
CONSISTENCY WITH FUTURE RUNS. FOR NOW WILL ISSUE SPS TO HIGHLIGHT
POTENTIAL STORM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015
LARGE AREA OF MVFR-LOW VFR CIGS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS
OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WESTERN AND EASTERN EDGES OF THIS STRATUS
WILL SLOWLY ERODE WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. -SHRA ARRIVE AT KDIK FROM 06Z- 12Z SATURDAY. SHOWERS IN
THE VICINITY AT KBIS BETWEEN BY 10Z SATURDAY. OTHER TERMINALS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE 18Z PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JNS
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1246 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015
TEMPS ARE STILL HAVING A HARD TIME WARMING MUCH AT ALL...WITH
AREAS STILL IN THE UPPER 30S. THEREFORE...WE WILL LOWER TEMPS A
FEW MORE DEGREES. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE CLOUDS WILL BREAK
UP SOME LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER SOME.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS TEMPERATURES...FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT
AND LATE WEEKEND RAIN POTENTIAL. MODELS OVERALL IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT INTO THE START OF THE LONG RANGE. NAM LOOKS TO BE THE
QUICKEST IN EJECTING SURFACE LOW NE IN LATER PERIODS AND LOOKS TO
BE AN OUTLIER. OTHERWISE NO REAL MODEL PREFERENCE AND WILL USE
GFS/ECMWF BLEND.
SURFACE RIDGING TO BUILD INTO THE FA TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR MASS. WINDS/CLOUDS HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES UP
OVERNIGHT BUT WITH SOME DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER TODAY AND COOL
AIRMASS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO RUN A GOOD 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN NORMAL.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FROST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH
TONIGHT. DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER AND MIXING OVERNIGHT WILL DETERMINE
IF OR HOW WIDESPREAD FROST WILL BE. AT THIS POINT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE FOR ANY HEADLINES. AT ANY RATE EXPECT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S ACROSS THE REGION.
UPPER LOW OVER THE 4 CORNERS AREAS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NE ON
SATURDAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. MODELS ARE BRINGING IN SOME PCPN TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FA HOWEVER TIME SECTIONS INDICATING MOISTURE LIMITED TO THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT OR LOWERING
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. COLUMN
STILL PRETTY COOL SO BLO AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE. WARMEST
READINGS WILL BE ACROSS THE SE FA WHERE WARM ADVECTION STRONGER.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015
LOW BECOMES STACKED OVER E CO BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND BEGINS TO
LIFT NE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MORNING. BASED ON GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT NUDGED POPS SLIGHTLY NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE
FA.
LOW LIFTS NE TO THE NE/SD/IA/MN BORDER AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING.
MODELS CONSISTENT IN LIFTING NORTHERN EDGE OF PCPN SHIELD TO THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH LARGE AREA OF LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. CONFIDENCE INCREASING ON RESPECTABLE
RAIN EVENT AT LEAST FOR THE SE HALF OF THE FA.
MAINTAINED HIGH END POPS ACROSS THE SE HALF SUNDAY NIGHT HOWEVER
IF TRENDS CONTINUE MAY HAVE TO EXPAND HIGHER POPS FARTHER NORTH
AND WEST. STILL SOME SURFACE LOW TRACK DIFFERENCES SO WILL STAY
CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BLO AVERAGE
SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER BC REMAINS OVER WESTERN CANADA. LONG WAVE TROUGH NEAR OR
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST OF CANADA THIS
PERIOD. IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
WEST COAST AS SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...A LONG WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT 84 HOURS. MODELS BECOME
180 DEGREES OUT OF PHASE BY 144 HOURS. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING
FARTHER NORTHWEST WHILE THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING SOUTHWARD OVER THE
LAST COUPLE RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF WITH PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STREAM.
KEPT POPS FROM YESTERDAYS RUN FOR MON.
HIGH TEMPS DECREASED ZERO TO THREE DEGREES FOR MON AND WED.
ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE TUE OR THU FRO YESTERDAYS FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015
CIGS WILL BE THE AVIATION CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THERE IS A HOLE DEVELOPING OVER WEST CENTRAL MN
THAT MAY EXPAND INTO THE FAR REGION AND WILL LIKELY HELP CLEAR OUT
BJI/TVF/GFK IN THE EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH I AM HESITANT TO GO CLEAR
IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE LATEST VIS IMAGERY IS GIVING SOME HOPE
THE MODELS MAY ACTUALLY BE RIGHT. WILL TEMPO GROUP SOME CLEARING IN
THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING...THEN SCT SKIES OVERNIGHT FOR THE VALLEY
AND MN SITES. FOR DVL...MUCH LESS CONFIDENCE AS IT IS FAR FROM THE
DEVELOPING HOLE AND WINDS WILL SHIFT NE...WHERE MOST OF SRN CANADA
IS OVC. CLEARING HAS PASSED REGINA BUT DON/T BELIEVE IT WILL BE TO
INTL BORDER BEFORE SUNSET AND HELP CLEAR US OUT OVERNIGHT. KEPT IT
MVFR THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...SPEICHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
351 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST TO NEW
ENGLAND. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AND THEN MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FOR THIS EVENING TO AREAS OF CONCERN ONE THE NERN OHIO/NWRN PA
AREA WHERE THE LAKE BREEZE COULD TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM. THE OTHER AREA IS NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE INSTABILITY
FROM NRN INDIANA AND SERN LWR MI WILL DRIFT JUST INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE DROPPING BACK THROUGH LATE EVENING.
SCATTERED TSTSMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM THE THUMB OF MI SSW ACROSS
NRN INDIANA INTO CENTRAL IL AND CAPES ON THE RUC ARE FORECAST TO
BE FROM 1000 TO 1800J/KG IN THE AREA. OVERNIGHT AM EXPECTING
CONVECTION FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO REACH INTO THE WESTERN
COUNTIES AS WELL. THIS CONVECTION IS FROM A COMPLEX THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS YDAY AND HELD TOGETHER LAST NIGHT AND
TODAY. THIS TIMES IN 08-10Z. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD CONTINUE MILD
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM NEAR THE THUMB OF MICHIGAN SOUTHWEST
INTO MO AND KS. THE NAM SHOWS A WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT SATURDAY THAT WILL LIKELY STALL IT OUT TO OUR NORTHWEST FOR
THE DAY. THE WAVE PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST SATURDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. SOME DISAGREEMENT FROM THE NAM TO THE GFS AS TO HOW
MUCH NW PUSH THERE WILL BE TO FORCE THE COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA.
THE GFS BRINGS NWLY FLOW INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY WHILE THE NAM NO SO MUCH. WILL SIDE MORE TOWARDS THE NAM
AND BLEND HIGHS FOR SUNDAY. WHEREVER THE FRONT STALLS IT SHOULD
MOVE NORTH ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST. WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO OUR EAST AND UPPER LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT
OF THE FOUR CORNERS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
SWLY WHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. THIS
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR INCREASED CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LATE TONIGHT WEST AND THEN THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY WEST TO EAST AS CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH. AGAIN SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE WITH LOW TO OUR WEST OVERRUNS THE
STATIONARY/WARM FRONT. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS MONDAY
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MUCH COOLER WEATHER RETURNS DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING BUT THE
COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES MAY BE
ABLE TO REBOUND A FEW DEGREES DURING THE MORNING...MAINLY
EAST...WITH THE COLDER AIR SPREADING WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL REACH THE LOWER
40S IN MANY AREAS. A FAIRLY THICK CU DECK SHOULD DEVELOP ON
WEDNESDAY WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 50S...ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE EAST LAKESHORE MAY
STRUGGLE TO GET THERE. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA ON WEDNESDAY AND MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. WE WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEST
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PA BUT ALSO
POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OHIO.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE TO START THE TAF CYCLE WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS
DEVELOPING AROUND 6K FEET. MOISTURE IS INCREASING FROM THE WEST AND
A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRY TO SNEAK INTO THE
TOL AREA AFTER 21Z. BETTER CHANCES WILL BE AFTER 06Z AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST OH/NORTHWEST PA THIS AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES
OF IMPACTING A TERMINAL ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN ANY FORECASTS AT
THIS TIME. MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY IN NW
OHIO AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE. OTHERWISE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ON SATURDAY.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR LESS ON LAKE ERIE INTO MONDAY WITH
WEAK LAKE/LAND BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL PULL A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA
FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE AS WAVES
BUILD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1226 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND THEN STALL NEAR LAKE ERIE
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN AREA OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...NO BIG CHANGES FOR THE AFTERNOON UPDATE.
ORIGINAL...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING. ANOTHER WARM
SUMMER LIKE DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA. A COUPLE OF RECORD HIGHS
WILL BE CHALLENGED OR BROKEN TODAY. 850 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
BE JUST A TAD COOLER THAN THURSDAY. BUT GIVEN A WARMER START
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS VALUES INLAND
AREAS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT TO KEEP THE
LAKE BREEZE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE TODAY SO PLACES LIKE
KBKL AND KERI SHOULD BE A HANDFUL OF DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY ARE NOT AS HIGH AS PROGGED BY THE
GUIDANCE BUT SHOULD COME UP SOME TODAY. REALLY NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF FORCING TODAY BUT SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
COULD KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS OR STORMS OVER FAR NW OHIO. A FEW
STORMS COULD ALSO FIRE ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY EAST OF KCLE
LATER TODAY. SOME OF NEWER GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR PICK
UP ON THAT SCENARIO. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ALREADY HAD A MENTION
SO WILL STICK WITH IT FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO
INCH TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THIS
HAPPENS PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
VERY LITTLE SHEAR AND UPPER SUPPORT EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND SO
NO ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERED IN NATURE. RIGHT NOW IT
APPEARS BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL PROBABLY NOT COME
TILL LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TILL THEN WILL NEED MAINLY LIKELY
POPS IN NW OHIO WITH NO MORE THAN CHANCE OF SCATTERED WORDING
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. IT`S STILL TOUGH TO TELL IF THE
FRONT WILL MAKE IT ACROSS THE LAKE BEFORE IT STALLS ON SUNDAY. THE
NEW GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW AN AREA OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHERN LAKES ON MONDAY CAUSING THE FRONT TO LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH. AS THIS HAPPENS THE LOCAL AREA COULD SEE A 12 TO 18 HOUR
PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP MENTIONED
ABOVE WILL COME AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FINALLY APPROACHES LATE
IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. IT HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY SO FAR THIS MONTH
BUT THINK MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF
PRECIP THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A GOOD 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS TRACK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE EASTERN
LAKES TUESDAY...THEN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON WEDNESDAY. BEHIND
THE FRONT MUCH COLDER AIR SPILLS OVER THE AREA. GFS CONTINUES TO BE
MUCH COLDER THAN THE LATEST ECMWF. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING THE GFS
850 MB TEMPERATURES PLUNGE TO -4C WHILE THE ECMWF ONLY TO +4C. FOR
NOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIT THE DIFFERENCE ON THE TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. MAY SEE SOME TSRA EXTREME NW OHIO LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES UP AROUND 1500 J/KG. BUT WITH STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER AREA STILL HAVE DOUBTS SO FOR TAFS JUST
WENT WITH VCTS NW OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GRADIENT BORDERLINE
FOR LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. IF IT DOES WILL BE FROM
CLE EAST.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AS A FRONT APPROACHES LATE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. NON VFR AS WELL ON MONDAY WITH THE FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTH FLOW OVER THE LAKE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
253 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING AND POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS REMAIN ONGOING TODAY...AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AT PRESENT...A WARM FRONT IS EVIDENT IN SURFACE AND SATELLITE
OBSERVATIONS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL AND PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND BACK
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. DESTABILIZATION IS
OCCURING TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WITH LOW TO MID 70S DEW
POINTS PREVALENT. 18Z SOUNDINGS FROM OUN AND FWD ARE INDICATIVE OF
A HIGHLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...AND MESOANALYSES SHOW A TONGUE OF
THIS INSTABILITY EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE INTERSTATE 35 AND
HIGHWAY 75 TO 69 CORRIDORS. AS SUCH...ONGOING ACTIVITY IN
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA /ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX/ MAY
HAVE A TENDENCY TO MOVE/SPREAD TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD PARTS OF
EAST CENTRAL AND PERHAPS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS OPPOSED TO SIMPLY
THE EAST NEAR THE RED RIVER. THE LOCAL WRF AND THE LATEST
INFORMATION FROM THE HRRR SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO...WITH ADDITIONAL
STORMS LIKELY TO MAKE A MID TO LATE EVENING RUN ALONG THE RED
RIVER IN RESPONSE TO AN INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL JET. THE OVERALL
TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE FAIRLY LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ALTHOUGH A LOCALLY HIGHER THREAT WILL EXIST NEAR THE WARM
FRONT AND ALSO ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH THE INCREASE IN
THE LOW LEVEL JET.
WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND HIGHLY
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CONCERNS WILL
PERSIST...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE OVERLY WET ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS. THROUGH THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS...IT APPEARS THAT
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
FLOODING...ALTHOUGH IT IS BY NO MEANS ZERO IN OTHER PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
AS HAS BEEN SAID A LOT IN THE LAST FEW DAYS...SATURDAY/S SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS LATER TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. STORMS COULD LINGER ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...BEFORE MOVING OUT BY MID MORNING. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP TO THE WEST...AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...
EARLY TO MID MORNING...AND BEGIN TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST FROM THERE. IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY CAN
DEVELOP BEHIND THE EARLY MORNING STORMS AND IN ADVANCE OF THE
LATER ROUND...A SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA
BEGINNING AS SOON AS EARLY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH MODEST DEEP LAYER
SHEAR COULD LIMIT THE SEVERITY UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. A VEERED
LOW LEVEL JET LOOKS TO MOVE INTO PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN THE TORNADO
THREAT.
THE COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE WILL FINALLY MAKE A PUSH TOWARD THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE MAIN
UPPER LOW FINALLY EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SHOULD
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH THIS SAME RISK PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT UNTIL THE BOUNDARIES FINALLY CLEAR THE REGION. STILL THINK
THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORECAST AREA
MAY BE SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE IMPACT MAY NOT BE AS GREAT AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW.
ON THE RAINFALL FRONT...A WIDESPREAD 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL
SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE MONDAY MORNING...WITH
LOCAL AMOUNTS APPROACHING 10 INCHES. WIDESPREAD RIVER FLOODING AND
FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL MAY VERY WELL END UP BEING THE BIG STORY
FROM THIS EVENT.
EARLY NEXT WEEK THERE SHOULD BE A DAY OR TWO WHERE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE LEADS TO A COOL AND DRY PERIOD...BUT MOISTURE MAKES A
QUICK RETURN TOWARD THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING MORE
THUNDERSTORMS AND RAINFALL TO THE REGION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 67 79 68 78 / 80 80 70 80
FSM 69 81 66 79 / 70 80 60 80
MLC 68 78 69 76 / 80 80 70 80
BVO 65 78 65 78 / 80 80 70 60
FYV 67 77 64 74 / 70 80 60 80
BYV 66 81 65 76 / 70 70 60 80
MKO 68 78 66 76 / 80 80 70 80
MIO 65 80 66 77 / 70 80 70 80
F10 67 77 67 76 / 80 80 70 80
HHW 70 80 68 78 / 70 80 60 80
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.
&&
$$
LONG TERM....22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1248 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015
.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....
&&
.AVIATION...
A STALLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR KELK TO KOKC DIVIDES
STRATIFORM LOW CLOUDS TO THE N FROM MORE CONVECTIVE CONDITIONS TO
THE S. TSRA...SOME SEVERE...ARE LIKELY TO TREK E/NE ACROSS OK/N
TX THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS MAINLY S OF THE
BOUNDARY. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THE LOW CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE
SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY OR NOT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY AGAIN OF VERY
LOW CEILINGS AND FG...BUT WE EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN TOO STRONG FOR
THE FG. MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT...IF WINDS DECREASE UNEXPECTEDLY...FG
WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS A LARGE STORM SYSTEM TO OUR W ADVANCES E
TONIGHT...WE EXPECT WIDESPREAD ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
EXPECT SCT TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. TIMING AND POSITION OF THE TSRA IS TOO DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST AT THIS POINT TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. MORE-ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED JUST BEYOND THE RANGE OF THE
TAFS.
CMS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1043 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015/
DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER APPEARS TO BE REDUCING THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TODAY.
THAT DOES NOT SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THE GRIDDED FORECAST...BUT
THERE MAY BE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOKS
LATER THIS MORNING.
THE SAME CLOUD COVER HAS SLOWED HEATING ACROSS MUCH OF
OKLAHOMA...AND WE WILL ADJUST THE HOURLY GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.
ADDITIONAL UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE DAY AS THE EVOLUTION
OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS BECOMES MORE APPARENT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015/
DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER RATHER COMPLICATED SITUATION WITH REGARDS TO
CONVECTION AND ATTENDANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT... AS WELL AS
ADDITIONAL HEAVY... POSSIBLY FLOODING RAINFALL. WILL ALSO HAVE
SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEAL WITH FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING.
MANY OF THE MODELS DEPICT MORNING CONVECTION DEVELOPING AS LIFT
BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AHEAD OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER
THE MODELS DIFFER IN THEIR PLACEMENT OF THIS CONVECTION THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. THEY ALSO DIFFER IN HOW TO HANDLE RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. MAIN BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING SHOULD RESIDE TO OUR SOUTH... BUT WOULD EXPECT IT TO TRY
TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASING
LATER THIS MORNING.
LATEST NAM/GFS DEPICT BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK TO NEAR I-40 CORRIDOR
BY AFTN. FOLLOWING THIS SCENARIO... WHICH ALSO KEEPS MUCH OF THE
MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...WOULD AID IN
REINFORCING SURFACE BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF
THE I-40 CORRIDOR BY THIS AFTN... ALTHOUGH OTHER BOUNDARIES WILL
LIKELY BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD LIMIT
INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA... SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WOULD REMAIN
IN THE MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE AFTN INTO THE EVENING.
THIS WILL BE THE MORE LIKELY AREA FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT STORMS...
INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL... DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES THIS
AFTN AND EVENING.
LATEST FEW RUNS OF HRRR GIVE A DIFFERENT SCENARIO THIS MORNING.
THIS MODEL HAS MORE OF A COMPLEX OF STORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY
DURING THE DAY. THIS WOULD LIKELY BE THE MAIN SHOW FOR THE DAY AND
ANY ATTENDANT SEVERE WOULD LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COMPLEX
OF STORMS... MUCH LIKE WHAT OCCURRED ON THURSDAY. EITHER SCENARIO
WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA SOUTH INTO NORTH
TEXAS WOULD BE THE FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
STORMS.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT. WE THEN SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER DAY OF SEVERE
WEATHER ON SATURDAY. MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING OUT
INTO THE PLAINS BY SAT AFTN AND EVENING. MODELS ARE AGAIN SHOWING
SOME MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE AREA AS LIFT BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE AREA AHEAD OF
MAIN TROUGH. THINK THAT THIS SHOULD PROGRESS EAST QUICK ENOUGH
THAT ATMOSPHERE SHOULD RECOVER/DESTABILIZE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
DRYLINE BY SAT AFTN ACROSS THE EASTERN OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. THE COMBINATION OF EXPECTED
INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE WIND FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE AREAS SAT AFTN
CAPABLE OF TORNADOES/VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. THESE STORMS
WILL THEN MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
PERHAPS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TOWARD THE I-35 CORRIDOR DURING THE
EVENING HOURS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH AND EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. AS THIS OCCURS... A COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH INTO THE
AREA AND WILL AGAIN BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS... SOME SEVERE
SUNDAY AFTN MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-44.
ALL THROUGH THIS TIME WILL BE ADDING TO THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN THROUGH MOTHER`S DAY
WEEKEND. WILL CONT WITH THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH THAT GOES THROUGH
THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
SHOULD SEE A DAY OR TWO OF MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER TO BEGIN NEXT
WEEK BEFORE MOISTURE BEGINS TO PULL BACK NORTH AND PRECIP CHANCES
RETURN TO THE AREA. RIGHT NOW ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBILITIES LOOK LOW AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK REMAIN MILD... BUT MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL
LINGER.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 77 63 77 63 / 60 70 70 40
HOBART OK 76 63 78 57 / 70 40 60 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 79 66 80 63 / 70 40 60 30
GAGE OK 75 59 78 51 / 50 50 60 20
PONCA CITY OK 81 63 77 63 / 50 70 70 50
DURANT OK 80 67 79 66 / 40 60 60 70
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR OKZ006>008-011>013-
015>048-050>052.
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
23/23/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
327 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS RETURNED.,,PARTICULARLY TO OUR WEST WHERE CAP
EROSION AND DEEPER MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH SPREADING THE MOISTURE AXIS EASTWARD BUT
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL DECLINE. FURTHERMORE...OVERNIGHT UPPER
DIVERGENCE APPEARS TO BE MISSING FROM THE EQUATION. THUS...WILL
INCLUDE A 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE HRRR IS LEANING TOWARD
HOLDING ONTO THE ACTIVITY A LITTLE LONGER...PARTICULARLY ACROSS FAR
WESTERN AREAS. OTW...MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING WEST...THEN PCLDY
AREA WIDE LATE.
ON SATURDAY...SHOWER AND TSTM CHANCES WILL INCREASE A LITTLE MORE AS
A WEAKENING SFC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MID STATE. BETTER MOISTURE
AND CAPE VALUES WILL ALSO BE AT WORK. POPS WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT
NT. BUT AGAIN...THE UPPER DIVERGENT FIELDS AND MOISTURE DEPTH WILL
LIKELY NOT SUPPORT LATE NIGHT ACTIVITY.
ON SUNDAY...FAVORABLE CAPE TO CAP RATIOS WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE
DAY. BUT...POPS AGAIN WILL BE LOW AS DYNAMICS LACK.
FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...WILL GO CLOSE TO MOS...MAYBE A TOUCH
UNDER.
IN THE EXTENDED FCST...A COLD FRONT WILL BE ON APPROACH AND BRING A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOR MONDAY. HOWEVER...A CLOSER
LOOK AT BOTH THE EURO AND GFS SOLUTIONS INDICATES THAT W-E BOUNDARY
ELONGATION WILL BE TAKING PLACE ALONG THE MAIN SFC LOW WAY UP ACROSS
THE WI AND MI AREAS. THIS WILL ACT TO REDUCE THE FAVORABLE STRONG
LLJ OVER OUR AREA. IN FACT...WE WILL SEE A WEAKER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AT THE 850 MB LEVEL. THE STRONG N-S LINEAR CONVECTION IS NOT
INDICATED. FURTHERMORE...THE MID LEVEL JET WILL RESIDE WELL TO OUR
NORTHWEST AS WELL. THROW IN VERY LOW QPF RETURN AND THE CHANCE FOR A
WELL ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT APPEAR TO BE VERY LOW AT THIS TIME. SO
FOR THE FCST...WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOR MON AND
MON NIGHT.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...PREVAILING SFC HIGH WILL BRING A BIT OF A
COOL DOWN. UPPER PATTERN STILL SHOWS ELEVATED HEIGHTS SO NEAR TO
PERHAPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK...UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN
AND BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. ALONG WITH THAT
WILL BE A RETURN OF SHOWER AND TSTM CHANCES...BUT NO WELL ORGANIZED
FRONTS ARE INDICATED.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 65 87 66 89 / 20 30 20 30
CLARKSVILLE 64 85 65 87 / 30 40 20 30
CROSSVILLE 60 81 62 82 / 20 20 20 40
COLUMBIA 64 87 65 89 / 20 30 20 30
LAWRENCEBURG 63 88 64 87 / 20 20 20 20
WAVERLY 64 85 65 87 / 40 40 20 30
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1256 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015
.UPDATE...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS STILL PREVAIL MIDDAY AT AUS/SAT/SSF/DRT
ALONG WITH SOME LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING MVFR VISIBILITIES IN HZ. A
GRADUAL RISE IN THE CEILINGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT POSSIBLY
REMAINING IN MVFR RANGE ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION...
MID LEVEL FORCING IS GENERATING ELEVATED SHRAS WEST AND SOUTHWEST
OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR...WHICH ARE MOVING NORTHEAST. THESE HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO IMPACT AUS/SAT/SSF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPO
INCLUDED IN AUS/SAT/SSF TAFS THROUGH 21Z. POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP 21Z-00Z ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 AS WELL
AS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. VCTS INCLUDED IN I-35 CORRIDOR TAFS
AFTER 21Z AND AT DRT AFTER 00Z.
LOWER MVFR CEILINGS RE-DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AT AUS/SAT/SSF AND
IFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS AT DRT DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT
AND INTO IFR RANGE BY 12Z SAT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1043 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015/
UPDATE...
12Z HAND ANALYSIS GIVES A GOOD PICTURE OF WHAT IS CURRENTLY
HAPPENING ACROSS THE REGION AND AN OVERALL IDEA OF WHAT WE CAN
EXPECT TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW IS CENTERED NEAR MIDLAND
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS WICHITA
FALLS. IT IS IN THIS GENERAL CORRIDOR THAT MOST SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCED LIFT WILL BE LOCATED FOR SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION. AT 700 AND 500 MB A DEEP UPPER LOW IS LOCATED NEAR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS TEXAS AND 700-500
MB LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPEST IN A CORRIDOR FROM DRT TO AMA. A QUICK
LOOK AT THE KDRT 12Z RAOB SHOWS A STOUT CAP AROUND 800 MB...BUT
MODEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CAP WEAKENS THE FARTHER EAST YOU GO. WHAT
THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO IS FOR CONTINUED ELEVATED ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
BEGINNING IN MEXICO TO MOVE EAST OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES LATER
THIS MORNING. WITH THE STEEP LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THERE IS A CHANCE
THERE COULD BE A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL IF
ANY ELEVATED STORM IS ABLE TO REALLY TAP INTO THE LAPSE RATES. AS
THE ACTIVITY SPREADS EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND ENCOUNTERS AN
ENVIRONMENT MORE FAVORABLE FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION...WE COULD
SEE SOME DEEPER CONVECTION WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL. THIS WOULD
MAINLY BE EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35/37 CORRIDORS. IF THIS WERE TO
OCCUR...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARD BUT THERE
IS A THREAT FOR SEVERE CONVECTION AS WELL. RE-WORKED THE POP GRIDS
TO CONVEY THE LATEST THINKING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR TODAY WILL BE THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR TOWARDS THE HILL
COUNTRY...EDWARDS PLATEAU AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION IS MEDIUM GIVEN WIDE ASSORTMENT OF HI-RES GUIDANCE.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FOR TODAY...THE WELL ADVERTISED CLOSED H5 LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA
WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND ALONG WITH EMBEDDED
IMPULSES STREAMING OUT OF NORTH MEXICO WILL AID IN A H5-H3 WIND
BELT INCREASE TOWARDS 50 TO 70KT RESPECTIVELY. WHILE THE BEST
FORCING AND DRYLINE BULGE WILL BE NORTH OF THE REGION...MODEST
INSTABILITY NEARING 3000 J/KG WITH A WEAK CAP AND IMPRESSIVE
VERTICAL TOTALS /29-31C/ SHOULD AT LEAST SUPPORT SOME ROBUST
UPDRAFTS. LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS
TO 60 MPH WILL BE HAZARDS OF THESE STORMS. THE HRRR HAS BEEN
INCONSISTENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ALONG WITH THE ARW/NMM
THAT WERE ALSO HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING STORMS YESTERDAY AT
THIS TIME. HAVE NOT PLACED MUCH STOCK IN THE OVER-DONE ARW/NMM
WITH SLIGHT WEIGHT TOWARDS HRRR. YET...EVEN IT DOES NOT READILY
SEEM TO FIT ENVIRONMENT CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR THIS AFTERNOON. FEEL
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND LONGER ALONG I-35
AND EAST WITH MORE CLEARING WITH GROWING AND STRONGER
DESTABILIZATION OUT WEST. GFS DOES PROG A WEAK S/WV TO SHIFT OVER
THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT SEE IT CREATING
STRATIFORM PRECIP AS THE HRRR SUGGESTS. GIVEN GFS/NAM SOUNDING
PROFILES SUPPORTING MORE OF A CONVECTIVE MODE...FEEL A MULTI-CELL
OR UPGROWTH INTO SOME LINEAR LINE SEGMENT COULD BE POSSIBLE OUT
WEST AND SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AND THEN NORTH OF
THE REGION. SPC SSEO AND NCAR ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO INCONSISTENT
AMONG THE MEMBERS. THE OVERALL SIGNAL DEPICTS INITIAL DEVELOPMENT
OUT WEST LATE AFTERNOON WITH CONSOLIDATION ACTUALLY NEAR THE 35
CORRIDOR AND NEAR SAN ANTONIO. WHILE POSSIBLE...FEEL MORE
SUPPORTIVE AREA WILL BE NORTH AND WEST. SOME ADDITIONAL TSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH CELLS
POSSIBLY CONTINUING NE OUT OF MEXICO BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD
DECREASE.
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE DRYLINE WILL HAVE SHIFTED FARTHER EAST
INTO THE REGION AND INCREASE STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL
FARTHER EAST THAN TODAY. A DECREASE IN STORM POTENTIAL WILL ALSO
OCCUR BEHIND THE DRYLINE FOR FAR WESTERN AREAS. NEAR 2000-2500
J/KG CAPE VALUES AND 45-50 KT 0-6KM SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS THAT COULD AGAIN CONTAIN HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.
0-3KM HELICITY VALUES PER GFS MAY APPROACH 200-250 M2/S2 AND WITH
0-1KM SRH NEAR 150 MS/S2...STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD ROTATE AND
A TORNADO CAN NOT BE FULLY RULED OUT. AGAIN...THE WINDOW FOR
STRONGEST STORMS WILL LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING FOR AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF US HIGHWAY 83. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL MORPH FROM
STRONGER CONVECTION TOWARDS MORE STRATIFORM THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING NEAR THE HILL COUNTRY AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE OF
CONCERN. SEE LONG TERM BELOW FOR CONTINUED MENTION OF THIS IMPACT
PERIOD.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
QUITE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ALL
OF NEXT WEEK WITH LIKELY MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS. BOTH GFS/EC MODELS AGREE
WIDESPREAD TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS TO 6-7"+ COULD BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
ELEVATED RIVER/CREEKS AND FLASH FLOODING COULD OCCUR IF CERTAIN
RAIN CLUSTERS DEVELOP JUST RIGHT.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE AREA REMAINS IN DEEP SW FLOW
ALOFT AS ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH SPOKE PIVOTS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS...ACTING TO ENHANCE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. PWATS REMAIN HIGH
/1.5-1.7"/ AND WILL SUPPORT LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS THROUGH THE
DAY AND EVENING. HEAVIEST RAINFALL COULD OCCUR ACROSS HILL COUNTRY
AND POINTS NORTH TO NE AND COULD INCLUDE AUSTIN METRO. SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE EAST OF I-35 BUT
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN AFTERNOON
DEVELOPMENT.
A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS STILL EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH TOWARDS THE
REGION BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BUT THIS WILL ONLY SERVE AS ANOTHER
FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT AS SW FLOW AND TROUGHING
CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY FOR ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCHES POSSIBLY BEING NEEDED. BY
TUESDAY...THE FIRST LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE GREAT PLAINS
BUT THE ACTIVE SOUTHERN JET STREAM BRANCH CONTINUES AND IS EVEN
REPLACED BY ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH ON THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY AND
YET ANOTHER BY LATE NEXT WEEK. PLEASE STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE
LATEST THROUGH THE WEEK AS QUICKLY ACCUMULATING RAINFALL TOTALS
COULD LEAD TO FLOODING IMPACTS. /ALLEN/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 73 86 73 82 69 / 30 40 30 60 70
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 73 86 73 84 70 / 40 40 30 60 70
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 72 87 73 84 70 / 30 40 20 50 60
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 70 83 70 80 67 / 30 50 50 70 70
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 72 92 71 87 67 / 40 20 20 40 30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 72 83 72 81 68 / 30 50 30 70 70
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 72 88 74 86 70 / 40 40 20 50 60
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 73 86 73 84 69 / 30 40 20 50 70
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 74 86 75 85 72 / 40 30 20 40 60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 73 87 73 85 70 / 30 40 20 50 60
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 73 88 74 85 71 / 30 30 20 50 60
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1245 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 18Z AVIATION BELOW.
40
&&
.AVIATION...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS GENERATING A FEW SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM KIAH NORTHWARD AT 1730Z. ANOTHER
ROUND WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCES
FOR THUNDER ACROSS KCLL AND KUTS. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS THEN
FORECAST ANOTHER WINDOW FOR SHOWERS BETWEEN ABOUT 09Z AND 15Z.
OTHERWISE...MVFR POSSIBLE OVER MOST SITES BY 04Z TONIGHT...WITH
IFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE AT KGLS.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 952 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN CHANGES FOR THE MORNING UPDATE WERE TO BUMP UP POPS ACROSS
THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING AS W/V IMAGERY SHOWING
IMPULSE APPROACHING BIG BEND AREA MAY TAKE A TRACK MORE FAVORABLE
IN PRODUCING PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA AS HRRR AND TX TECH WRF
DEPICTS. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS. ALSO EXTENDED THE CAUTION
FLAGS FOR THE 20-60NM GULF WATERS. OTHERWISE...REST OF THE
PACKAGE LEFT ABOUT THE SAME. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 86 73 86 74 85 / 40 40 30 30 50
HOUSTON (IAH) 86 74 85 75 86 / 20 40 20 20 40
GALVESTON (GLS) 83 76 83 76 83 / 20 40 20 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION/MARINE...40
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1150 AM MDT FRI MAY 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT FRI MAY 8 2015
IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...FOR THIS MORNING WE HAVE ISSUED A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR THE CHEYENNE TO LARAMIE STRETCH ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG FORMING IN THE
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW THAT WILL LINGER INTO THE MID MORNING
HOURS. LESS DENSE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING BACK TOWARDS THE CHEYENNE
AREA HERE SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK...AND WE WILL CLOSELY MONITOR
TRAFFIC CAMS AND OBSERVATIONS FOR POTENTIAL OF EXPANDING THAT
ADVISORY FARTHER EAST THROUGH CHEYENNE.
OTHERWISE...WE ARE GETTING A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EARLY TO MID MORNING. HRRR (WHICH DID FAIRLY WELL YESTERDAY
WITH PRECIP AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
ACROSS OUR WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS) IS AGAIN SHOWING DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE...SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES IN THE
MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS...AND MOVING THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS IS THE
GENERAL BASIS OF OUR POP FORECAST TODAY...SPREADING SHOWERS
NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH TODAY WITH A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WHERE
SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY RESIDES TODAY. WITH STRONGER
CONVECTIVE BUILDUPS IN THE WEST TODAY...EXPECT A SWITCHOVER TO
SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 8000 FT AGAIN TODAY SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THOSE
AREAS WHERE TRAVEL MAY BECOME A LITTLE TRICKER THIS AFTERNOON
GOING INTO THE EVENING. /JG
ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO A WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
WINTER STORM POISED TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE CWA THIS WEEKEND. LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW SPINNING
OVER SOUTHERN CAL THIS AM. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TODAY...HELPING TO REINFORCE MOIST EAST-
TO-SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE PLAINS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
WARMER OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...LIKELY DUE TO STRONG WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION OCCURRING IN THE LOW LEVELS. IT APPEARS THIS SYSTEM
WILL TRACK A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED AS
WELL...WHICH SHOULD HELP PREVENT ANY SUBSTANTIAL COLD AIR DAMMING
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND LIMIT THE RISK FOR AN EARLY CHANGEOVER
TO SNOW DOWN LOW. BUT...WE ARE DEFINITELY CONCERNED ABOUT THE
MOUNTAINS/ELEVATIONS ABOVE 8000 FEET LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT.
SOUNDINGS OVER THE I80 SUMMIT ARE SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN SURFACE
TEMPS TODAY...AND WERE ALREADY A GOOD 5 DEGREES TOO WARM AT VDW AT
06Z. THAT SAID...EXPECT IT TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW TONIGHT.
COULD HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ALONG INTERSTATE 80
OVERNIGHT...SO WILL KEEP THE START TIME AT 06Z SAT FOR THE HIGH
COUNTRY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A WARNING
JUST YET...AS OBS SHOW A RATHER WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS TO OUR
SOUTHEAST WHICH MAY INHIBIT ACCUMULATING SNOW. WE ARE ALSO
CONCERNED ABOUT A DRY SLOT WHICH MAY WORK INTO THE AREA ON SAT
MORNING GIVEN FAIRLY LOW 700-300 MB RH PROGS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.
THIS DRY POCKET WAS OBSERVED ON MORNING WATER VAPOR.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE NORTHERN TRACK OF THE STORM IS NOT EXPECTED TO
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF COLD AIR TO WORK WITH AS H7 TEMPS ARE ALREADY AROUND -10
DEG C OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT. EXPECT RAPID SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TO
ENSUE OVER EASTERN CO ON SAT...FORCING WINDS TO SHIFT TO A NORTH
OR NORTHEAST DIRECTION BY SAT NIGHT. GFS/NAM/ECM ARE IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT WITH GOOD COLD ADVECTION IN THE EVE AND OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL FORCE SNOW LEVELS TO DECLINE QUITE RAPIDLY. IN FACT...THE
LATEST SREF RUN SHOWS WBZ HEIGHTS BELOW GROUND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA (EXCEPT EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEAR KSNY) BY 06Z SUN. DURING THIS
TIME...VERTICAL ASCENT WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY TO THE WEST OF A
PRONOUNCED INVERTED TROUGH AXIS OVER CENTRAL NEB. GOOD INSTABILITY
WITHIN THE TROWAL REGION AND IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
WILL SUPPORT MESOSCALE BANDING. NEGATIVE SHOWALTER INDICES HANG
AROUND BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z SUN AS WELL...SO BONAFIDE CONVECTIVE
SNOW IS QUITE POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE THERMAL PROFILES
REALLY COOL DOWN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM ALL MODELS SHOW DEEP
SATURATION AS WELL...SO ALL SIGNS POINT TO SOME IMPRESSIVE PCPN
TOTALS. GFS AND ECM STILL SHOW WIDESPREAD 2-3 INCH QPF VALUES OVER
THE SNOWIES AND ALL AREAS ALONG/EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH
06Z MON. THE NAM HAS SIMILAR VALUES...BUT FOCUSES THEM FARTHER
EAST INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE. THIS IS STILL THE OUTLIER.
PER COORDINATION WITH WPC AND NEIGHBORING WFOS...WE INCREASED SNOW
AMOUNTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH EXCELLENT UPSLOPE AND AMPLE
MOISTURE...EXPECT SOME BIG SNOW TOTALS IN THE MOUNTAINS. UPWARDS
OF TWO FEET IS NOW EXPECTED IN THE SNOWIES...BUT THERE IS QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THE SIERRA MADRES AS THEY COULD BE SHADOWED
BY THE SNOWY RANGE. QPF HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLY LOWER THERE. ENOUGH
SUPPORTING DATA TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...STARTING SAT MID AFTN. WPC
GUIDANCE SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD 10+ INCHES AT ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 4500 FEET...SO THIS SHOULD MATCH UP VERY WELL WITH NATIONAL
CENTERS. A WARMER AND GENERALLY DRIER AIR MASS WILL LINGER ALONG
THE I80 CORRIDOR IN NEBRASKA...SO DID NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR
THE TIME BEING. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS RE-EVALUATE. SNOW SHOULD
START TO PULL OUT BY LATE SUN AFTN OR EARLY EVE. WENT WELL BELOW
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WITH LINGERING PCPN AND THE
ANTICIPATION OF DEEP SNOWPACK. /CLH
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT FRI MAY 8 2015
BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LIFTING THE
OPENING UPPER LOW OUT TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA WITH DRIER/COLDER
AIR WORKING IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WE HAVE A
FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS (LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS)
PROJECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...THEN WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMUP
WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING WORKING WEST TO EAST ACROSS WYOMING AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH MIDWEEK. WE BRING IN SMALL CHANCES FOR
DIURNAL SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT FRI MAY 8 2015
UPSLOPE EAST-SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN LOW LIFR/IFR
CIGS/VSBYS ALONG AND EAST OF SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...MAINLY IMPACTING CHEYENNE. RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN A
FEW TSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY FROM
NORTHERN CO THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT VCTS WORDING AT LARAMIE AND
RAWLINS WHERE BREAKS IN OVC MAY RESULT IN BETTER INSTABILITY.
GENERALLY VFR CIGS ELSEWHERE...WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
PASSING SHOWERS. IT WILL BREEZY AT TIMES WITH GUSTY EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FROM SOUTHWEST. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO LIFR/IFR
LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT
RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW. THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT FRI MAY 8 2015
A STRONG WINTER STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND BRINGING PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW TO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. SNOW WILL
START IN THE MOUNTAINS LATER TODAY ABOVE 8000 FEET AND WILL
DEVELOP TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WARMER
AND DRIER WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR WYZ101-102-104>108-110-115-117>119.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR WYZ103-112-114-116.
NE...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NEZ002-003-019-020-095-096.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JG/CLH
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...MJ
FIRE WEATHER...JG