Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 05/06/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
541 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 538 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015
DECREASED POPS AT A QUICKER RATE DURING THE EARLY EVENING TIME
PERIOD. SYSTEM IS LIFTING OUT AND PRECIP SHOULD END EARLY THIS
EVENING OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS AS THE WINDS TAKE ON A WESTERLY
COMPONENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015
CURRENTLY...UPPER LOW LIFTING SLOWLY E-NE ALONG THE CO/NM
BORDER...WITH DEEP E-SE FLOW DRIVING WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE AREA. LACK OF INSTABILITY HAS KEPT THUNDERSTORMS TO A
MINIMUM...THOUGH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEGIN TO APPEAR ACROSS
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AS STRONGER CONVECTION ROTATES NORTHWARD OUT OF
NEW MEXICO. RAINFALL RATES SO FAR TODAY HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
MODEST...WITH 0.25-0.50 INCH PER HOUR UNDER THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS...MAINLY A TENTH OF INCH PER HOUR OR LESS UNDER THE LIGHTER
ACTIVITY.
TONIGHT...LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS
ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER AT 21Z WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST AREA OF
ORGANIZED HEAVIER PRECIP THIS EVENING...WITH ACTIVITY LIFTING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD AND WEAKENING AFTER 00Z. STILL A LOW THREAT OF AN ISOLATED
TSRA THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN SECTIONS NEAR THE NM BORDER
WHERE INSTABILITY (CAPES 200-400 J/KG) IS SLIGHTLY DEEPER...BUT
OVERALL...CHANCE OF STRONGER CONVECTION AND EXTREME RAINFALL RATES
APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY LOW...SO WILL LET FLASH FLOOD WATCH END
SLIGHTLY EARLY WITH AFTERNOON FORECAST UPDATE. AS LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE DEVELOPING WESTERLY LOW/MID
LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY BRINGS AN END TO PRECIP OVER THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS AFTER 06Z. WON`T MENTION FOG IN THE
FORECAST AS CLOUDS AND WEAK WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP VISIBILITY
FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH...THOUGH WITH PLENTIFUL RAIN/BL MOISTURE
AREAS OF GROUND FOG LOOK POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY EL PASO COUNTY
WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO TURN W-NW.
WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SWLY
THROUGH THE DAY. MOISTURE DECREASES SOMEWHAT AS WELL...THOUGH WITH
RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WEAK
UPPER WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...AT LEAST SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MANY AREAS.
BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND NORTHERN
AREAS...LESSER POPS FARTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WHERE DRIER AIR
PUNCHES NORTHWARD FROM NM. MAX TEMPS WILL RECOVER ALL AREAS WITH
MORE SUN AND LACK OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...AND A FEW SPOTS ON THE
PLAINS WILL APPROACH 80F...WITH 60S AND 70S ACROSS MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015
...WEATHER PATTERN TO REMAIN ACTIVE FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
AFTER A BRIEF LULL WEDNESDAY...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS...LEADING TO MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY FOR AREAS
ALONG AND NEAR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE PIKES
PEAK REGION...BUT ALSO FOR SPOTS OUT ON THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE
SHEAR VALUES SUCH THAT A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE BECOMES MORE
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE UPSLOPE LOOKS LIKE
IT GETS DEEP ENOUGH TO BRING IN WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS
OF LIGHT PRECIP...BUT POTENTIALLY REDUCES THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
THIS DAY...BY LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF HEATING. SEVERE STORMS
PRESENTLY LOOK LESS LIKELY THIS DAY...BUT THIS IS CONTINGENT ON
HOW DEEP THE UPSLOPE FLOW REALLY TURNS OUT TO BE. COULD STILL HAVE
SOME PROBLEMS ALONG AND NEAR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS
THE PIKES PEAK REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THEN...ON SATURDAY...WE BRING THE NEXT MAJOR NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO. THIS TROUGH LOOKS VIGOROUS...WITH
THE POTENTIAL TO CREATE A LOT OF LIFT...AND GENERATE A LOT OF INTENSE
CONVECTION...IN A STRONGLY SHEARED ATMOSPHERE. PROBLEM IS...NOT
EXACTLY SURE WHAT TRAJECTORY THIS THING IS GOING TO TAKE AS IT
EJECTS NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. THE 12Z GFS AND THE OLD 00Z ECMWF
TRACK IT FARTHER NORTH THAN SOME OF THE 06Z RUNS...GENERALLY
YIELDING LESS SEVERE POTENTIAL. BUT...IF THE 06Z RUNS TURN OUT
TO BE MORE TRUE TO FORM...WATCH OUT. COULD BE BIG SEVERE WEATHER
DAY OVER THE EAST...WITH TORNADO POTENTIAL AS WELL AS HAIL/WIND
POTENTIAL.
THEN...AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY...THINGS SHIFT OVER MORE TOWARD WINTER
WEATHER AS WE GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SATURDAY SYSTEM. COLD AIR
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM COULD BRING SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS...
AND POSSIBLY DOWN TO THE LEVEL OF EL PASO COUNTY. FARTHER EAST...
AWAY FROM THE MOUNTAINS...IT WOULD LIKELY BE JUST SPOTTY LIGHTER
AMOUNTS OF RAIN.
NORTHWEST FLOW COULD BRING MORE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY. AND THEN...BY TUESDAY...IT`S LOOKING LIKE
ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.
A LOT OF WEATHER TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. DETAILS
PRESENTED NOW WILL INEVITABLY CHANGE. PLEASE KEEP CHECKING BACK FOR
LATER UPDATES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015
AT KALS...PERIODS OF SHOWERS EXPECTED INTO EARLY EARLY
EVENING...WITH AN ISOLATED TSRA ALSO POSSIBLE. IN BETWEEN
SHOWERS...PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR...WHILE UNDER THE
HEAVIER PRECIP MVFR CIGS/VIS ARE LIKELY. PRECIP DIMINISHES LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THOUGH MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL BE SLOW TO
CLEAR. ON WED...VFR WITH SCT -SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA AFTER 18Z.
AT KCOS...RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS...THOUGH SOME BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE UNDER THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH...THOUGH CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT WITH MVFR AND AREAS OF
IFR LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. MAY ALSO HAVE TO DEAL WITH
AT LEAST PATCHY AREAS OF FOG AS WELL WITH VERY WET GROUND AND MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER. ON WED...ANY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK BY MID MORNING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
OF TSRA AFTER 20Z.
AT KPUB...EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS UNDER THE HEAVIER PRECIP AND BRIEF VFR IN BETWEEN
SHOWERS. LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PRECIP WILL
DIMINISH...THOUGH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST ALONG WITH PATCHY
GROUND FOG AS WELL. ON WED...VFR FROM MID MORNING ONWARD WITH SCT -
SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA AFTER 20Z.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...PETERSEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1123 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 848 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015
BASED OFF TRENDS OF HRRR...RUC AND 00Z NAM...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS
ALONG I-25 CORRIDOR.S MTNS REGION FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. GUIDANCE SHOWING PRETTY GOOD UPSLOPE DEVELOPING
LATER TONIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH THE 700 MB CIRC DEVELOPING OVER THE
SE PLAINS TONIGHT AND THE GOOD LOWER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW...SEE NO
REASON TO GO AGAINST THE GUIDANCE.
IF HRRR CONTINUES WITH THE PRECIP...WILL HAVE TO BUMP UP POPS
IN A LATER FCST UPDATE.
/HODANISH
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
GENERALLY BE FAIRLY SLOW MOVING AND SHORT LIVED. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVR THE AREA WL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...AND DECREASING TOWARD MIDNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WL
MOVE SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS EVENING...WITH THE NAM
SHOWING IT REACHING THE SRN CO BORDER EARLY MON MORNING. BEHIND
THE FRONT...SFC DEW POINTS INCREASE INTO THE 40S...AND LOW STRATUS
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVR NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY BY MIDNIGHT AND
THEN SPREADING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR...NSSL WRF AND NAM
CONTINUE TO SHOW PCPN BEHIND THE FRONT OVR EL PASO AND TELLER
COUNTIES DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS...WITH MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BEING DRY. THE HRRR SPREADS PCPN SOUTHWARD INTO
PUEBLO AND FREMONT COUNTIES AS WELL.
ON MONDAY AN UPR LOW BECOME CENTERED OVR THE CA AND AZ BORDER WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVR THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...DRAWING MSTR NORTHWARD. WITH MOIST LOW TO MID LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...KEEPING AFTERNOON SFC DEW POINTS ACRS THE SERN
PLAINS IN THE MID40S TO LOWER 50S. MOST OF THE LOW STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BEFORE AFTERNOON. THE NAM SHOWS SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING IN THE MID MORNING HOURS OVR THE MTNS...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE CONTDVD...WHERE A SHORTWAVE TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD
THRU THE AREA. PCPN WL INCREASE ACRS THE MTNS BY MIDDAY AND WL
SPREAD TO THE ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND THEN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WL BECOME WIDESPREAD ACRS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE WL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN. ALSO...PORTIONS
OF THE SERN PLAINS COULD SEE ONE OR TWO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPS ON MON WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY AND SHOULD GENERALLY BE
JUST A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. HIGH TEMPS IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015
...STORMY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY...
MONDAY NIGHT...WILL SEE SEVERAL ONGOING ROUNDS OF PRECIP AND STORMS
OVER THE AREA. THE STRONGEST OF THESE WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE ERN
PLAINS...GENERALLY E OF KLHX...AND ANOTHER AREA OVER THE PALMER DVD.
GIVEN THE ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE AND INCREASED SHEAR DUE TO BACKED
LLVL FLOW...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SVR STORM OR TWO ESPECIALLY
IN THESE FAVORED AREAS. COULD SEE A BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIP MON
EVE BEFORE PRECIP COVERAGE INCREASES LATER MON NIGHT...IN BANDS OF
CONVECTION ROTATING UP FROM THE SOUTH. WILL MAINTAIN ISOLD OR SLIGHT
CHANCE OF TS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH MORE WIDESPREAD LIKELY POPS ACROSS
THE MTS AND PLAINS.
ON TUE...THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...THEN
TRACK TO THE NE DURING THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER...IN THE 60S
FOR THE PLAINS...DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIP. IT LOOKS LIKE
MUCH OF THE BEST PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE TUE MORNING...ALTHOUGH EVEN
IF THERE ARE ANY BREAKS IN THE SHOWERS AND STORMS...THEY SHOULD PICK
UP AGAIN BY TUE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS MON-TUE WILL BE PRETTY
HIGH...BUT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF QPF...COULD SEE SOME LOCAL
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS IN THE MTS OF SIX INCHES OR MORE...ESPECIALLY
ABOVE 12000 FEET. SO...RECREATIONISTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF WINTER
CONDITIONS FOR THE HIGH PEAKS. GIVEN ALL THE PRECIP...THE BL SHOULD
BE PRETTY STABILIZED BY TUE SO SURFACE BASED CONVECTION LOOKS
UNLIKELY. BUT...A STRONG STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE
AREA AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH NRN CO.
BY WED...SHOULD SEE THINGS WINDING DOWN AS THE FIRST UPPER LOW MOVES
OFF INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NE. WILL STILL SEE SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIP
OVER THE DVD AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND NICELY
BACK INTO THE 70S OVER THE PLAINS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL DROP SWD FROM THE PACNW ON WED...THEN CUTOFF
OVER CA THU-SAT...AND SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NE OVER THE WEEKEND.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
TRACK TO OUR NORTH NEXT WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH LATEST RUNS HINT THAT
THE TRACK MAY BE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST OF SE CO
WILL BE STUCK IN THE DRY SW FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW...BUT GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTIES WILL MAINTAIN POPS OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE MTS. TEMPS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS
H7 TEMPS ARE MINUS THREE OR LOWER...SO SOME MTN SNOWS SEEM LIKE A
GOOD BET. ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015
IT WILL BE MUCH WETTER AT THE TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24H. A
MOIST PACIFIC STORM COMING IN FROM S CALIF WILL AFFECT THE REGION
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
FOR KCOS AND KPUB...SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT.
WE WILL SEE A BREAK LATER TOMORROW MORNING...THEN ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
THE TWO TAF SITE. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR TOMORROW
EVENING. THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES TOMORROW
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
AT KALS..OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH ISOLD THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 24H. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
945 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE. LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SLOW MOVING FRONT MAY BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
945 PM UPDATE...
JUST SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL SCATTERED CLOUDINESS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS EVENING. WE ARE WATCHING A CLUSTER OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NY STATE AND NORTHERN PA. MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTHWEST WED AM...AS WEAK
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE HRRR AND SOME
OTHER MESOSCALE MODELS SKIRT OUR SOUTHERN ZONES ESPECIALLY NORTHERN
CT WITH A FEW SHOWERS.
ALL IN ALL...OUR THINKING IS BULK OF ACTIVITY WILL EITHER STAY SOUTH
OF OUR REGION AND RADAR ECHOES THAT MAKE IT INTO OUR REGION WILL
HAVE TROUBLE REACHING THE GROUND. WE INCLUDED SLIGHT POPS ACROSS
OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES...MAINLY FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OR PERHAPS A
SHOWER WITH BEST CHANCE FOR THAT IN NORTHERN CT.
LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S NORTH OF THE PIKE. SOUTH OF THE
PIKE EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S WITH MORE IN
THE WAY OF CLOUDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...
A MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL PASS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. NOT
SURE IF IT WILL TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTHWEST TO RESULT IN A BRIEF
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS ANY PORTION OF OUR REGION. BEST SHOT IS
NORTHERN CT...AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO PART OF RI AND SOUTHEAST MA
FOR A SHORT TIME. KEPT THE FORECAST MAINLY DRY ACROSS OUR REGION.
OTHERWISE...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN PLACE. SO ONCE
THE SUNSHINE BREAKS OUT...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES RECOVER INTO
THE 60S AND 70S...WITH THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES TOWARD CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS. WHILE IT WILL BE COOLER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...BUT THESE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...
- SW-FLOW USHERING ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND
- PERHAPS SOME COASTAL ISSUES WITH MARINE STRATUS / FOG
- INCREASING RAIN / THUNDER CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
- CONCERN OVER POTENTIAL FLOODING ISSUES
*/ DISCUSSION...
ENSEMBLES SIGNAL A H5 RIDGING PATTERN THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING
IN A PERSISTENT AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NW-ATLANTIC.
ALONG ITS W-PERIPHERY SW-FLOW OF WARM-MOIST AIR MAINTAINS AHEAD OF A
SLOW-MOVING COOL FRONT WHICH BASED ON FORECAST CONSENSUS DRAGS INTO
S NEW ENGLAND BY LATE WEEKEND - EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MOISTURE-INSTABILITY AXES FOCUS ACROSS THE NE-CONUS GENERATING A
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT /MOIST-ADIABATIC THRU H7/ ALONG
THE FRONT WHERE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT WOULD LIKELY AID WITH DIURNALLY-
FORCED SHOWER-THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CONSENSUS H85-3 FLOW IS RATHER
WEAK AROUND 25 MPH ALONG WITH CORFIDI VECTOR FLOW EVEN WEAKER. SO
WITH DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE AND FORECAST PWATS OF 1.50-1.75 INCHES
WONDER WHETHER WE WILL SEE SLOW-MOVING/TRAINING ACTIVITY THAT
WARRANTS FLOODING CONCERNS IN THE FUTURE. THE WARM-CLOUD LAYER IS
OVER 10 KFT. COULD WE BE SEEING HEAVY-RAIN PROCESSES? LOW CONFIDENCE
AT THIS TIME. IF ANYTHING SHOULD SEE UPSTREAM ACTIVITY BEFOREHAND
OVER THE WEEKEND THAT WOULD PROVIDE A HEADS-UP. WET-WEATHER CHANCES
INCREASING BEGINNING SUNDAY AND GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...NO
LIKELY POPS JUST YET. AS TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH THIS ASPECT AS WELL.
SOME INTANGIBLES: WHETHER A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BUCKLE THE SW-
FLOW IN ADDITION TO SEA-BREEZES /PENDING IF INTERIOR WINDS ARE
LIGHT/...AND FUTURE OUTCOMES OF SUB-TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OFF THE
COAST OF FLORIDA /AS TO HOW AND IF IT WILL BE CAPTURED IN THE FLOW
TOWARDS S NEW ENGLAND/. AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT IT
MAY SLOW THE APPROACH OF THE COOL FRONT. APPEARS AS IF THE SLOWER
FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOULD BE FAVORED.
OTHERWISE: WARMER THAN AVERAGE. MAY BE CONTENDING WITH SOME MARINE
STRATUS / FOG AT TIMES AS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR CROSSES OVER THE
COOLER WATERS ADVECTED BY THE SW-FLOW. COULD POSSIBLY SEE SOME
LOCALES AROUND THE 90-DEGREE MARK ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. LIGHT WINDS. DEPENDENT ON SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL CIGS WILL NEED
TO MONITOR FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR OVERNIGHT. SEA-
BREEZES DEVELOPING BY LATE-MORNING WEDNESDAY. PERHAPS MARINE-LAYER
STRATUS / FOG ISSUES AS WE GO FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE S/SE-COASTLINE OF MA.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEA-BREEZE ERODES INTO EARLY EVENING
AS FLOW TURNS LIGHT. WILL SEE RE-EMERGENCE TOWARDS LATE-MORNING
WEDNESDAY.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THOUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR. SW-FLOW. BREEZY AT TIMES. MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH IFR MARINE
STRATUS / FOG ALONG THE S/SE-SHORELINE TERMINALS DURING OVERNIGHT -
MORNING PERIODS. INCREASING CHANCES FOR -SHRA TOWARDS SUNDAY.
POSSIBLE TSRA BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT SEAS
WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THOUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. EXPECT
BREEZY SW-FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COOL FRONT INTO SUNDAY AHEAD
OF WHICH MARINE STRATUS / FOG MAY BE AN ISSUE ALONG THE S/SE-SHORE-
LINE DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS. DRY FORECAST OVERALL
WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH LITTLE APPRECIABLE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY IF NOT INTO SUNDAY/MONDAY. WHILE WINDS
FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WILL PROBABLY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH
FOR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES...WE MAY HAVE TO BE MORE CONCERNED BY
SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A BIT MORE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE WIND GUSTS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...BELK/NMB
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...BELK/SIPPRELL/NMB
MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL/NMB
FIRE WEATHER...STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
145 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE. DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...ALONG WITH
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKE THE FOURTH OF JULY
THAN THE 4TH OF MAY...CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 70S...AND IN SOME CASES
ALREADY HAVE SURPASSED 80 DEGREES.
SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATED THAT SMALL CU FIELD DEVELOPING BUT
NOTHING MORE. WE ARE WEAKLY CAPPED AT THIS TIME AND MOISTURE IS
VERY LIMITED.
FOR THIS UPDATE...DECIDED TO RAISE SOME TEMPERATURES 2-3 DEGREES
HIGHER ACROSS CERTAIN SECTIONS...BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR DOWNSLOPE OFF THE CATSKILLS INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY
THAT HAS NOT FULLY REALIZED.
LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID OR EVEN UPPER 80S IN THE
VALLEYS...(WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY)....70S TO LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND SHOULD KICK IN DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH POSSIBLE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE
VERY LOW...DIPPING INTO THE 20S AND EVEN SOME TEENS.
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD START TO INCREASE LATE IN THE
DAY AS THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH...BUT IT LOOKS DRY
FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
LATEST HRRR HAS SOME SHOWERS REACHING NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON
COUNTIES BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...AND SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
AS A RESULT...SOME RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THERE WON/T BE A LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY...AND SHOWERS WON/T BE OVERLY WIDESPREAD. MOST AREAS WILL
ONLY SEE A FEW PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING RAINFALL LOOKS NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING...AND IT
WILL BE FAIRLY CLOUDY INTO THE START OF TUESDAY. TEMPS OVERNIGHT
WITH THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL BE MILD WITH UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE REGION.
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOUTHERN AREAS /CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...NW CT/ MAY WIND UP STAYING CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL STILL BE MILD...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS WARM
AS MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
WITH THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...THERE STILL MAY BE A
LINGERING SHOWER AND SOME CLOUDS FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY ON
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 30S IN
THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WHERE
MORE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN.
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY DRIFTS
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. DESPITE BEING BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM...WITH
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY BEING IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. MIN TEMPS
ON WED NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S...ALTHOUGH A FEW 30S ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL
FEATURE A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WITH A TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK SHIFTING
TO THE OVER THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. WHILE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OFF THE COAST.
DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER AS WE
HEAD THROUGH MOTHER`S DAY WEEKEND THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SOME SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND DEW POINTS RISE. THE REGION WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM SO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE AS THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO WARM TO 12-15C OVER THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RUN 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...18Z
TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TODAY WITH A COLD FRONT
BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED TOMORROW FOR MOST LOCATIONS
BUT KPOU IS EXPECTED TO STAY CLOUDY WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS
CONTINUING AS THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA.
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISHING TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS TUESDAY MORNING
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC -SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED AT THE REQUEST OF THE NEW YORK
STATE DEC FOREST RANGERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND THE
MASSACHUSETTS DEPARTMENT OF CONSERVATION AND RECREATION.
ALTHOUGH RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE NOT BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT
AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT...LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE IN THOSE AREAS AS WELL.
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL /GREATER THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH/ HAS NOT
OCCURRED IN WELL OVER A WEEK ACROSS THE REGION AND STATE OFFICIALS
HAVE NOTED THAT FOREST FUELS ARE RATHER DRY AT THIS TIME. RH VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO 15 TO 25 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND S-SW
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH ARE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S. AS A
RESULT...ANY FIRES MAY BECOME DIFFICULT TO CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST IN AN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK AREA.
RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...AND MOST AREAS WON/T SEE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.
WEST WINDS WILL BE AT 5 T0 15 MPH.
WITH RAIN SHOWERS ENDING...AND SKIES STARTING TO CLEAR OUT...RH
VALUES ON TUESDAY WILL FALL TO 30 TO 50 PERCENT...WITH THE LOWEST
VALUES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN VT. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER ON TUESDAY...WITH NW WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH
RH VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY
ONLY BE A TENTH OR TWO TENTH OF AN INCH. WITH VEGETATION STARTING
TO GREEN UP OVER THE AREA...THIS RAINFALL WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.
DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL
EITHER HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RECEDE THROUGH THE WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...SND/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1230 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS... PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE. DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...ALONG WITH CONTINUED
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKE THE FOURTH OF JULY
THAN THE 4TH OF MAY...CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 70S...AND IN SOME CASES
ALREADY HAVE SURPASSED 80 DEGREES.
SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATED THAT SMALL CU FIELD DEVELOPING BUT
NOTHING MORE. WE ARE WEAKLY CAPPED AT THIS TIME AND MOISTURE IS
VERY LIMITED.
FOR THIS UPDATE...DECIDED TO RAISE SOME TEMPERATURES 2-3 DEGREES
HIGHER ACROSS CERTAIN SECTIONS...BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR DOWNSLOPE OFF THE CATSKILLS INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY
THAT HAS NOT FULLY REALIZED.
LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID OR EVEN UPPER 80S IN THE
VALLEYS...(WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY)....70S TO LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND SHOULD KICK IN DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH POSSIBLE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE
VERY LOW...DIPPING INTO THE 20S AND EVEN SOME TEENS.
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD START TO INCREASE LATE IN THE
DAY AS THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH...BUT IT LOOKS DRY
FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
LATEST HRRR HAS SOME SHOWERS REACHING NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON
COUNTIES BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...AND SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
AS A RESULT...SOME RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THERE WON/T BE A LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY...AND SHOWERS WON/T BE OVERLY WIDESPREAD. MOST AREAS WILL
ONLY SEE A FEW PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING RAINFALL LOOKS NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING...AND IT
WILL BE FAIRLY CLOUDY INTO THE START OF TUESDAY. TEMPS OVERNIGHT
WITH THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL BE MILD WITH UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE REGION.
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOUTHERN AREAS /CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...NW CT/ MAY WIND UP STAYING CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL STILL BE MILD...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS WARM
AS MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
WITH THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...THERE STILL MAY BE A
LINGERING SHOWER AND SOME CLOUDS FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY ON
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 30S IN
THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WHERE
MORE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN.
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY DRIFTS
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. DESPITE BEING BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM...WITH
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY BEING IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. MIN TEMPS
ON WED NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S...ALTHOUGH A FEW 30S ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL
FEATURE A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WITH A TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK SHIFTING
TO THE OVER THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. WHILE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OFF THE COAST.
DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER AS WE
HEAD THROUGH MOTHER`S DAY WEEKEND THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SOME SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND DEW POINTS RISE. THE REGION WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM SO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE AS THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO WARM TO 12-15C OVER THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RUN 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
GRADUALLY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
FEW TO SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO
THE AREA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE AS THE
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT WITH
VICINITY SHOWERS IN TAFS.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND WILL
INCREASE IN SPEED AND BECOME GUSTY AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. THE
WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOME DURING THE EVENING LOSING THEIR GUSTINESS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST-NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
BOUNDARY.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC -SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED AT THE REQUEST OF THE NEW YORK
STATE DEC FOREST RANGERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND THE
MASSACHUSETTS DEPARTMENT OF CONSERVATION AND RECREATION.
ALTHOUGH RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE NOT BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT
AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT...LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE IN THOSE AREAS AS WELL.
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL /GREATER THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH/ HAS NOT
OCCURRED IN WELL OVER A WEEK ACROSS THE REGION AND STATE OFFICIALS
HAVE NOTED THAT FOREST FUELS ARE RATHER DRY AT THIS TIME. RH VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO 15 TO 25 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND S-SW
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH ARE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S. AS A
RESULT...ANY FIRES MAY BECOME DIFFICULT TO CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST IN AN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK AREA.
RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...AND MOST AREAS WON/T SEE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.
WEST WINDS WILL BE AT 5 T0 15 MPH.
WITH RAIN SHOWERS ENDING...AND SKIES STARTING TO CLEAR OUT...RH
VALUES ON TUESDAY WILL FALL TO 30 TO 50 PERCENT...WITH THE LOWEST
VALUES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN VT. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER ON TUESDAY...WITH NW WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH
RH VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY
ONLY BE A TENTH OR TWO TENTH OF AN INCH. WITH VEGETATION STARTING
TO GREEN UP OVER THE AREA...THIS RAINFALL WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.
DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL
EITHER HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RECEDE THROUGH THE WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...SND/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/SND/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1044 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE. DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...ALONG WITH
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1044 AM EDT...ISSUED RED FLAG WARNING FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT
BASED ON USER REQUEST. RFW IS VALID FROM 12 PM TO 8 PM. ALL OF
ALBANY FORECAST AREA NOW HAS A RED FLAG WARNING EXCEPT LITCHFIELD
COUNTY CT.
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO JUST
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD...WHILE A SFC COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL
UPSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER
THE REGION...WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND ANOTHER PATCH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY. WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST.
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD START TO INCREASE LATE IN
THE DAY AS THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT STARS TO APPROACH...BUT IT
LOOKS DRY FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. LATEST HRRR HAS SOME SHOWERS REACHING NORTHERN HERKIMER
AND HAMILTON COUNTIES BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...AND SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
AS A RESULT...SOME RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THERE WON/T BE A LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY...AND SHOWERS WON/T BE OVERLY WIDESPREAD. MOST AREAS WILL
ONLY SEE A FEW PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING RAINFALL LOOKS NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING...AND IT
WILL BE FAIRLY CLOUDY INTO THE START OF TUESDAY. TEMPS OVERNIGHT
WITH THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL BE MILD WITH UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE REGION.
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOUTHERN AREAS /CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...NW CT/ MAY WIND UP STAYING CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL STILL BE MILD...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS WARM
AS MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
WITH THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...THERE STILL MAY BE A
LINGERING SHOWER AND SOME CLOUDS FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY ON
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 30S IN
THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WHERE
MORE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN.
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY DRIFTS
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. DESPITE BEING BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM...WITH
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY BEING IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. MIN TEMPS
ON WED NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S...ALTHOUGH A FEW 30S ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL
FEATURE A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WITH A TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK SHIFTING
TO THE OVER THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. WHILE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OFF THE COAST.
DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER AS WE
HEAD THROUGH MOTHER`S DAY WEEKEND THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SOME SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND DEW POINTS RISE. THE REGION WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM SO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE AS THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO WARM TO 12-15C OVER THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RUN 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
GRADUALLY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
FEW TO SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO
THE AREA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE AS THE
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT WITH
VICINITY SHOWERS IN TAFS.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND WILL
INCREASE IN SPEED AND BECOME GUSTY AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. THE
WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOME DURING THE EVENING LOSING THEIR GUSTINESS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST-NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
BOUNDARY.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC -SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED AT THE REQUEST OF THE NEW YORK
STATE DEC FOREST RANGERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND THE
MASSACHUSETTS DEPARTMENT OF CONSERVATION AND RECREATION.
ALTHOUGH RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE NOT BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT
AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT...LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE IN THOSE AREAS AS WELL.
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL /GREATER THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH/ HAS NOT
OCCURRED IN WELL OVER A WEEK ACROSS THE REGION AND STATE OFFICIALS
HAVE NOTED THAT FOREST FUELS ARE RATHER DRY AT THIS TIME. RH
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND S-SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S. AS A RESULT...ANY FIRES MAY BECOME DIFFICULT TO CONTROL
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE
NORTHEAST IN AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK AREA.
RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...AND MOST AREAS WON/T SEE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.
WEST WINDS WILL BE AT 5 T0 15 MPH.
WITH RAIN SHOWERS ENDING...AND SKIES STARTING TO CLEAR OUT...RH
VALUES ON TUESDAY WILL FALL TO 30 TO 50 PERCENT...WITH THE LOWEST
VALUES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN VT. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER ON TUESDAY...WITH NW WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH
RH VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY
ONLY BE A TENTH OR TWO TENTH OF AN INCH. WITH VEGETATION STARTING
TO GREEN UP OVER THE AREA...THIS RAINFALL WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.
DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL
EITHER HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RECEDE THROUGH THE WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1003 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE. DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...ALONG WITH
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1003 AM EDT...MAIN CHANGE TO GRIDS IN THIS UPDATE IS TO ADD
SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FOR LATE TODAY INTO TOMORROW MORNING AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHAINS TO JUST
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD...WHILE A SFC COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL
UPSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER
THE REGION...WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND ANOTHER PATCH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY. WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST.
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD START TO INCREASE LATE IN
THE DAY AS THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT STARS TO APPROACH...BUT IT
LOOKS DRY FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. LATEST HRRR HAS SOME SHOWERS REACHING NORTHRN HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COUNTIES BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...AND SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
AS A RESULT...SOME RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THERE WON/T BE A LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY...AND SHOWERS WON/T BE OVERLY WIDESPREAD. MOST AREAS WILL
ONLY SEE A FEW PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING RAINFALL LOOKS NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING...AND IT
WILL BE FAIRLY CLOUDY INTO THE START OF TUESDAY. TEMPS OVERNIGHT
WITH THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL BE MILD WITH UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE REGION.
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOUTHERN AREAS /CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...NW CT/ MAY WIND UP STAYING CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL STILL BE MILD...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS WARM
AS MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
WITH THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...THERE STILL MAY BE A
LINGERING SHOWER AND SOME CLOUDS FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY ON
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 30S IN
THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WHERE
MORE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN.
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY DRIFTS
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. DESPITE BEING BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM...WITH
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY BEING IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. MIN TEMPS
ON WED NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S...ALTHOUGH A FEW 30S ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL
FEATURE A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WITH A TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK SHIFTING
TO THE OVER THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. WHILE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OFF THE COAST.
DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER AS WE
HEAD THROUGH MOTHER`S DAY WEEKEND THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SOME SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND DEW POINTS RISE. THE REGION WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM SO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE AS THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO WARM TO 12-15C OVER THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RUN 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
GRADUALLY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
FEW TO SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO
THE AREA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE AS THE
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT WITH
VICINITY SHOWERS IN TAFS.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND WILL
INCREASE IN SPEED AND BECOME GUSTY AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. THE
WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOME DURING THE EVENING LOSING THEIR GUSTINESS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST-NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
BOUNDARY.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC -SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED AT THE REQUEST OF THE NEW YORK
STATE DEC FOREST RANGERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND THE
MASSACHUSETTS DEPARTMENT OF CONSERVATION AND RECREATION.
ALTHOUGH RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE NOT BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT
AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT...LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE IN THOSE AREAS AS WELL.
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL /GREATER THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH/ HAS NOT
OCCURRED IN WELL OVER A WEEK ACROSS THE REGION AND STATE OFFICIALS
HAVE NOTED THAT FOREST FUELS ARE RATHER DRY AT THIS TIME. RH
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND S-SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S. AS A RESULT...ANY FIRES MAY BECOME DIFFICULT TO CONTROL
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE
NORTHEAST IN AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK AREA.
RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...AND MOST AREAS WON/T SEE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.
WEST WINDS WILL BE AT 5 T0 15 MPH.
WITH RAIN SHOWERS ENDING...AND SKIES STARTING TO CLEAR OUT...RH
VALUES ON TUESDAY WILL FALL TO 30 TO 50 PERCENT...WITH THE LOWEST
VALUES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN VT. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER ON TUESDAY...WITH NW WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH
RH VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY
ONLY BE A TENTH OR TWO TENTH OF AN INCH. WITH VEGETATION STARTING
TO GREEN UP OVER THE AREA...THIS RAINFALL WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.
DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL
EITHER HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RECEDE THROUGH THE WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
255 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TO NORTHERN
KANSAS WILL SINK SOUTHWARD...EVENTUALLY STALLING NEAR THE I-72
CORRIDOR LATER THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WITH MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING THE
GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
KILX CWA. HRRR IS SHOWING WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH THE CONVECTION BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD AFTER SUNSET AS A WEAK LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. HAVE
ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES ACCORDINGLY...WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG/NORTH OF
I-72 TAPERING DOWN TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTER OF THE
NATION STARTING ON TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD PUSH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AT LEAST INTO
THURSDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS THEN FORECAST TO EJECTS NORTH OUT OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND BRING ABOUT A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR WEST...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. A MORE POTENT 500 MB TROF IS THEN FORECAST TO SLOWLY TRACK
OUT OF THE ROCKIES DURING THE WEEKEND BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA. MOST MODELS TRACK THIS LOW
NORTH-NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY SUGGESTING THE MORE SIGNIFICANT LIFT TO
REMAIN WEST OF OUR AREA UNTIL LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK
WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
UNTIL THEN...WARM TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL WITH THE SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TOMORROW AS THE FRONT RETREATS BACK
TO THE NORTH...AND THEN RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE THU INTO FRIDAY
AND HOLDS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE WE FINALLY GET A CHANGE
IN AIR MASS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG/NEAR THIS BOUNDARY AFTER
01/02Z...WITH THE LONGEST PERIOD OF RAIN EXPECTED AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS OF KPIA AND KBMI. WILL CARRY PREDOMINANT SHOWERS AT
THESE SITES THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER OR
NOT CEILINGS WILL LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY NORTH OF THE FRONT.
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW VFR CEILINGS EVEN AT
KPIA/KBMI WHERE WINDS BECOME E/NE LATER THIS EVENING, WHILE THE
HRRR HINTS AT LOWER CEILINGS AROUND 2500FT. LATEST REGIONAL OBS
SHOW A FEW MVFR CEILINGS NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA,
SO DO NOT WANT TO COMPLETELY IGNORE THE POSSIBILITY. HAVE
THEREFORE INCLUDED SCT025 AT BOTH KPIA AND KBMI AFTER 04Z AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER OBS AND MODEL RUNS TO MAKE A FINAL
DETERMINATION. ALL MODELS SHOW THE BOUNDARY SHIFTING BACK
NORTHWARD TUESDAY MORNING, RESULTING IN DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES
AND WINDS RETURNING TO THE S/SE.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...BARNES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1258 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015
15Z/10AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TO KANSAS. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT
ACROSS MUCH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...ALTHOUGH AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP
HAS BEEN DIMINISHING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. 12Z NAM
SUGGESTS THE GREATEST INSTABILITY AND STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL OVERLAP NEAR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
FROM SOUTHERN IOWA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THINK THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY AREA WHERE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP...WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS FURTHER EAST
ACROSS ILLINOIS WHERE INSTABILITY/SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER. HRRR SHOWS
THIS TREND AS WELL...WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING/SPREADING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE KILX CWA AFTER SUNSET. HAVE MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY TO FEATURE
SCATTERED POPS ALONG/NORTH OF I-72 TODAY AND ONLY ISOLATED FURTHER
SOUTH. BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT. WITH SOME PARTIAL
SUNSHINE...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS HAS MOVED INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL IL FORECAST
AREA...EXTENDING FROM NEAR PEORIA TO PONTIAC. BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND IT...WHILE AHEAD LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE WIDELY SCATTERED ACROSS CENTRAL IL. MID-LEVEL
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WILL CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL IL MAINLY FROM I-70
NORTHWARD THROUGH MORNING. A POSSIBLE LULL IN PRECIPITATION
INDICATED BY MODEL FORECASTS LATE MORNING AS CURRENT AREA OF
CONVECTION SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND RE-DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION
TAKES PLACE ALONG THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR THE
AFTERNOON. SPC CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS CONTAINING HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IL NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHERE AT LEAST SOME OVERLAP OF MODERATE BULK SHEAR MAY COMBINE WITH
1000-2000 J CAPE. HIGH TEMPERATURES QUITE WARM AGAIN TODAY...UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S...WITH BREEZY SW WINDS 10-15 MPH.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015
SOME CONVECTION SETTLING INTO THE MIDWEST THIS MORNING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTHWEST. SAME BOUNDARY PROVIDING
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS TODAY WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE. EXACT LOCATION OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY VARIES A BIT FROM
MODEL TO MODEL. SMALL WAVES MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE THROUGH TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING IN WITH SOME SOUTHERLY WINDS PUSHING
THE FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES SLOWLY EDGING BACK INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES OUT OF THE SW. THE
ENERGY IS PART OF A GENERAL PATTERN SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGGING BACK IN OVER THE SWRN CONUS. THE
SFC LOW WITH THAT STORM MOVES OUT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO
CANADA BY THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT IN SHIFTING TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT, OPENS THE DOOR TO A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES THAT KEEP THE
FORECAST WET FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS RATHER WARM THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH OVERCAST AND RAINY SKIES
KEEPING THE OVERNIGHT LOWS UP A BIT, BUT LIKELY NOT NEARLY AS WARM
AS THE TREND IN THE GUIDANCE. HAVE KNOCKED THEM DOWN A COUPLE
DEGREES. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A RELATIVELY WARM AIRMASS KEEPING THE
HIGHS A BIT ABOVE NORMS. HOWEVER, WITH THE LIFTING OF THE DEEP TROF
OVER THE SW INTO THE GREAT LAKES, THE WARMER AIRMASS IS SHUNTED OFF
TO THE EAST AND COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST AT LEAST BRIEFLY
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG/NEAR THIS BOUNDARY AFTER
01/02Z...WITH THE LONGEST PERIOD OF RAIN EXPECTED AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS OF KPIA AND KBMI. WILL CARRY PREDOMINANT SHOWERS AT
THESE SITES THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER OR
NOT CEILINGS WILL LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY NORTH OF THE FRONT.
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW VFR CEILINGS EVEN AT
KPIA/KBMI WHERE WINDS BECOME E/NE LATER THIS EVENING, WHILE THE
HRRR HINTS AT LOWER CEILINGS AROUND 2500FT. LATEST REGIONAL OBS
SHOW A FEW MVFR CEILINGS NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA,
SO DO NOT WANT TO COMPLETELY IGNORE THE POSSIBILITY. HAVE
THEREFORE INCLUDED SCT025 AT BOTH KPIA AND KBMI AFTER 04Z AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER OBS AND MODEL RUNS TO MAKE A FINAL
DETERMINATION. ALL MODELS SHOW THE BOUNDARY SHIFTING BACK
NORTHWARD TUESDAY MORNING, RESULTING IN DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES
AND WINDS RETURNING TO THE S/SE.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...ONTON
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...BARNES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1045 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015
15Z/10AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TO KANSAS. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT
ACROSS MUCH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...ALTHOUGH AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP
HAS BEEN DIMINISHING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. 12Z NAM
SUGGESTS THE GREATEST INSTABILITY AND STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL OVERLAP NEAR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
FROM SOUTHERN IOWA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THINK THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY AREA WHERE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP...WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS FURTHER EAST
ACROSS ILLINOIS WHERE INSTABILITY/SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER. HRRR SHOWS
THIS TREND AS WELL...WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING/SPREADING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE KILX CWA AFTER SUNSET. HAVE MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY TO FEATURE
SCATTERED POPS ALONG/NORTH OF I-72 TODAY AND ONLY ISOLATED FURTHER
SOUTH. BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT. WITH SOME PARTIAL
SUNSHINE...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS HAS MOVED INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL IL FORECAST
AREA...EXTENDING FROM NEAR PEORIA TO PONTIAC. BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND IT...WHILE AHEAD LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE WIDELY SCATTERED ACROSS CENTRAL IL. MID-LEVEL
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WILL CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL IL MAINLY FROM I-70
NORTHWARD THROUGH MORNING. A POSSIBLE LULL IN PRECIPITATION
INDICATED BY MODEL FORECASTS LATE MORNING AS CURRENT AREA OF
CONVECTION SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND RE-DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION
TAKES PLACE ALONG THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR THE
AFTERNOON. SPC CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS CONTAINING HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IL NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHERE AT LEAST SOME OVERLAP OF MODERATE BULK SHEAR MAY COMBINE WITH
1000-2000 J CAPE. HIGH TEMPERATURES QUITE WARM AGAIN TODAY...UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S...WITH BREEZY SW WINDS 10-15 MPH.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015
SOME CONVECTION SETTLING INTO THE MIDWEST THIS MORNING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTHWEST. SAME BOUNDARY PROVIDING
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS TODAY WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE. EXACT LOCATION OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY VARIES A BIT FROM
MODEL TO MODEL. SMALL WAVES MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE THROUGH TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING IN WITH SOME SOUTHERLY WINDS PUSHING
THE FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES SLOWLY EDGING BACK INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES OUT OF THE SW. THE
ENERGY IS PART OF A GENERAL PATTERN SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGGING BACK IN OVER THE SWRN CONUS. THE
SFC LOW WITH THAT STORM MOVES OUT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO
CANADA BY THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT IN SHIFTING TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT, OPENS THE DOOR TO A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES THAT KEEP THE
FORECAST WET FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS RATHER WARM THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH OVERCAST AND RAINY SKIES
KEEPING THE OVERNIGHT LOWS UP A BIT, BUT LIKELY NOT NEARLY AS WARM
AS THE TREND IN THE GUIDANCE. HAVE KNOCKED THEM DOWN A COUPLE
DEGREES. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A RELATIVELY WARM AIRMASS KEEPING THE
HIGHS A BIT ABOVE NORMS. HOWEVER, WITH THE LIFTING OF THE DEEP TROF
OVER THE SW INTO THE GREAT LAKES, THE WARMER AIRMASS IS SHUNTED OFF
TO THE EAST AND COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST AT LEAST BRIEFLY
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 0657 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA FROM KSPI-KDEC-KCMI NORTHWARD WITH ISOLD-SCT
SHRA TO THE SOUTH AS A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS BKN050-070 BUT ISOLD
IFR/MVFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS IN HEAVIER TSRA AND BR. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING BEFORE
BEGINNING TO SHIFT BACK NORTHWARD AFTER 06Z. POTENTIAL IMPROVEMENT
IN CONDITIONS BRIEFLY FROM AROUND 15-18Z HOWEVER
TIMING/OCCURRENCE TOO UNCERTAIN FOR MENTION IN 12Z TAFS. WINDS
GENERALLY SSW 8-12 KTS UNTIL 00Z...SHIFTING TO SE04-08 KTS.
BRIEFELY GUSTY AND VARIABLE IN VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...ONTON
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...ONTON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1147 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 852 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE THIS EVENING ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST ONTARIO INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE NORTHERN PORTION THE LINE, WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA, IS MAKING THE MOST RAPID EASTWARD PROGRESS. THIS IS NOT
SURPRISING GIVEN THE STRONGER WIND FIELDS IN THAT AREA, AND THE
FORECAST WEST-EAST ORIENTATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS
ANTICIPATED BY LATER TOMORROW.
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WELL IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR, AND THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. THE CONVECTION
ALONG THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARD AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL WAVE
HELPING TO DRIVE THEM MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER, THEY SHOULD ARRIVE
IN A SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKENED STATE CONSIDERING THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
INSTABILITY AND FORECAST WEAKENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET BY THE
TIME THEY ARRIVE.
GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE OVERALL. MOST SIGNIFICANT
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED ARE TOWARD PRECIPITATION TRENDS, MOST NOTABLY
TO REMOVE THUNDER MENTION FROM THIS EVENING AND DELAY ARRIVAL OF
THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION A BIT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015
A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE OVER EASTERN IA AND NW IL BY MS RIVER WILL
LIFT INTO SE WI BY SUNSET AND KEEP BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF I-80 THROUGH SUNSET WITH JUST ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE IL RIVER VALLEY. CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT OVER THE IL RIVER VALLEY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES
EXTENDING AS FAR SE AT CHARLESTON/MATTOON BY SUNRISE MONDAY AS YET
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA TRACKS EAST TOWARD THE
IA/IL BORDER BY 12Z/7 AM MONDAY. SPC KEEPS RISK OF SEVERE STORMS NW
OF IL OVER NORTHERN IA, SE MN AND INTO CENTRAL WI THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY WHERE BETTER FORCING WILL BE AS COLD FRONT PUSHES SE INTO
CENTRAL PARTS OF WI/IA BY SUNRISE MONDAY. STAYED CLOSE TO MET/MAV
GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH COOLEST
READINGS IN EASTERN/SE IL. BREEZY SSW WINDS 15-25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DIMINISH SOUTH 7-14 MPH AFTER SUNSET.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE POSITION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES LATER TONIGHT THRU MONDAY NIGHT. REMNANTS OF
TODAY`S MCV SHOULD PUSH OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST PUSHING THE SHOWERS
EVEN FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY HAS A FEW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT BUT THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE
BACKED OFF SOME ON ANY ORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT WITH
THAT FEATURE. IT STILL APPEARS OUR MAIN THREAT WILL COME LATER
TONIGHT AND THRU THE MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY WITH REDEVELOPMENT
TAKING PLACE LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING RIGHT ALONG
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HAVE TRENDED MORE TOWARDS THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL SOLUTIONS FROM THE NSSL-ARW AND 4KM NAM-WRF WITH
RESPECT TO FRONTAL POSITION ON MONDAY AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP CHANCES
ALONG IT. THE HIGHER POPS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS BACK NORTH LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE TIED TO THE POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE NAM-WRF INDICATING A 40-45 KT LOW
LEVEL JET SETTING UP TONIGHT FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI NORTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN IL WITH THE STRONGER 850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT LOCATED FROM NORTHEAST MISSOURI INTO NORTHERN IL. STORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP WELL OUT TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING
AND THEN TRANSLATE EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO OUR NORTHERN AREAS BY
LATE EVENING OR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. IF A
DECENT COLD POOL DEVELOPS LATER TONIGHT...THOSE STORMS MAY TRACK
FURTHER SOUTH AND AFFECT THE POSITION OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE BOUNDARY
IN OUR AREA ON MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING. WITH THE WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY
LOCATED ACROSS A PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...LOOK FOR STORMS TO FIRE AGAIN ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS
WHICH SHOULD BE ALIGNED FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO WEST CENTRAL IL
BY MID AFTERNOON. MIXED LAYER CAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE
SHEAR VALUES OF 25 KTS SHOULD PROMOTE STORM ORGANIZATION WITH
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL POSSIBLE WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE
RATES OF 6.5-7 DEG/C DEPICTED ON SOUNDINGS TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE NORTH. SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN
BEGIN TO EDGE NORTHWARD BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS
TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
ONCE THE 500 MB RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT NORTH CLOSER TO THE RETREATING
SURFACE BOUNDARY. OUR NEXT THREAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROF THAT IS FORECAST TO EJECT NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY WITH THE HIGHEST POPS...AT LEAST
INITIALLY...ACROSS THE WEST AS MODELS SUGGEST MOST OF THE STRONGER
LIFT AND INSTABILITY WILL SHIFT MORE NORTH THAN EAST. HOWEVER...OUR
AREA WILL BE UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL LOW FORECAST BY MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS TO PUSH OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS TYPE OF A PATTERN THIS TIME OF YEAR
BRINGS DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT AT LEAST THE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015
WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS APPROACHING CENTRAL ILLINOIS FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS EVENING. FURTHER WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED
AND THEY MAY NOT REACH THE BULK OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS. KPIA AND
KBMI STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING STORMS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS MOVING MORE OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION
AND THESE MAY IMPACT A PORTION OF THE REGION AS WELL VERY LATE
TONIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, IN BOTH CASES, COVERAGE BY THE
TIME THEY GET HERE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGH, SO HAVE GONE WITH A
VCSH/VCTS MENTION FOR NOW. ASIDE FROM ANY OF THIS CONVECTION,
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE 06Z TAF VALID
TIME. EXPECT MOST OF THE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY TO STAY
MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA, ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY,
ALTHOUGH KPIA AND KBMI STILL STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF BEING
IMPACTED.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BAK
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
644 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA AND HAS NOT
MOVED MUCH AT ALL TODAY. IT MADE A VERY SLOW PROGRESSION NORTHWARD
AND CURRENTLY SITS JUST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20...VERSUS INTERSTATE 80
THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING FADED AS IT
TREKKED NORTHWARD AND AWAY FROM WHAT LITTLE LIFT...MAINLY WAA
OVER THE BOUNDARY...REMAINED. CLOUD COVER THAT LINGERED WELL INTO
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA PREVENTED SBCAPE VALUES FROM
SOARING...BUT HAVE REBOUNDED TO 1500-2000 J/KG WITH NIL CIN ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IOWA. AREAS THAT SAW SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY
REACH THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S...AND IS
BEING REALIZED NOW AS SOME WEAK CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FIRING UP
IN SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA AND WEST OF FORT DODGE. WEAK
SHEAR...GENERALLY 20KTS OR LESS...AND NO CAP WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS PULSE STORMS THAT WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL AS THEY
FIGHT FOR ENERGY. THE HRRR APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION ON CURRENT CONVECTION AND HAS ALL OF IT GONE BY 03Z WITH
THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT LIFTING MECHANISM OVER NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLED TO REACH DAYTIME HIGHS WITH THICK...AND
GENERALLY LOW...CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN IOWA. AS A RESULT MANY
LOCATIONS STILL SIT IN THE UPPER 50S. WITH THAT IN MIND...HAVE
DROPPED LOWS ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES SINCE DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY HIGH AND STOP ANY CRASHING TEMPS. FOG MAY BE OF CONCERN
ACROSS THE NORTH AS WELL...BUT MAY BE LIMITED WITH WINDS AROUND
10KTS. SITES THAT SEE WINDS DROP A BIT MAY SEE PERIODS OF FOG.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015
GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW ACROSS IOWA AND THE MIDWEST
WILL RESULT IN AN ACTIVE AND FAIRLY WET WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL BE PUNCTUATED BY TWO FAIRLY ROBUST
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND AN INTERMEDIARY PERIOD OF SUBTLE
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
THE FIRST BIG SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES IN THE FORM OF A DEEP OPEN WAVE...AND WILL MOVE UP OVER
OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE A LARGE
CLOSED 500 MB LOW CURRENTLY MOVING ASHORE OVER WASHINGTON/BRITISH
COLUMBIA WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC U.S.
COAST...REACHING NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER...AS THE FIRST SYSTEM DEPARTS QUICKLY TO OUR NORTHEAST
AND THE SECOND SYSTEM DIGS IN AND DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
IT WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER IOWA...THROUGH WHICH
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE AT THE END OF THIS WEEK. FINALLY...THE
LARGE SOUTHWEST U.S. LOW WILL EJECT UP ACROSS THE MIDWEST SOMETIME
AROUND SUNDAY.
AS THE LEADING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES UP INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY IT WILL PUSH A LARGE REGION OF WARM AIR AND THETA E
ADVECTION UP ACROSS IOWA. WITHIN THIS REGION WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER NEBRASKA AND KANSAS
TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY FADE AS THEY TRANSLATE ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR MOST
OF THE DAY...HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS NOT
HIGH AS IT APPEARS THAT IN WAKE OF THE INITIAL BAND OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION THERE MAY BE LITTLE TO FORCE TRAILING CONVECTION AND WE
COULD SEE A LULL SIMILAR TO TODAY. IN ANY EVENT...WHILE THERE IS
SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...NEARLY
UNIFORM LOW LEVEL WINDS AND A LACK OF ANY KIND OF FOCUS MECHANISM
LEAD TO A LOW RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WHICH IS WELL OUTLINED BY
SPC. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT ANOTHER EXPANSION OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET ON THE EASTERN
FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...BUT THIS ACTIVITY WILL
MOSTLY BE TO OUR WEST ACROSS NEBRASKA...SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHWESTERN IOWA AND ONCE AGAIN WITH A LOW SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
IN OUR AREA. FORECAST POPS HAVE BEEN TRENDED TOWARD THIS DIRECTION
AND TIMING.
POTENTIALLY THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD FOR OUR AREA WILL COME ON
THURSDAY. IT APPEARS THAT ONE OR TWO SHORTWAVES MOVING OVERHEAD
WILL PUSH A SYNOPTIC SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY ACROSS OUR AREA ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...AT PEAK HEATING TIME LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PROGNOSTIC MODELS UNANIMOUSLY
DEPICT A SWATH OF STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY...THOUGH THIS COULD BE TEMPERED BY DEBRIS FROM EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION. WHILE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS SOMEWHAT LESS
IMPRESSIVE DURING THIS TIME...DEEP SHEAR IN THE 25 TO 35 KT RANGE
COUPLED WITH SURFACE CAPE APPROACHING 3000 J/KG WOULD CERTAINLY
INDICATE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING AS WE
PROGRESS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
THE FORECAST FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY IS
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR SOUTHEAST THE ABOVE DISCUSSED SURFACE TROUGH
CAN PROGRESS. IT WILL LIKELY STALL SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
IOWA OR MISSOURI/ILLINOIS...WITH SUBSEQUENT SHORTWAVES MOVING
OVERHEAD AND KICKING OFF ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND NORTHWEST OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER...IT IS UNCLEAR HOW FAR
SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA THE BOUNDARY WILL LIE AND THUS HOW FAR INTO
OUR AREA THESE STORMS MAY PENETRATE. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO MODEL
CONSISTENCY IN THIS AREA...AND FOR NOW HAVE STUCK TO CHANCE POPS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS DEPICTING A ROUGH CONSENSUS
APPROACH. IN ANY EVENT...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DURING THIS
TIME WILL BE LOW ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
AS STORMS MAY TRAIN ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE.
FINALLY...THE SECOND AND STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DISCUSSED
EARLIER WILL MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
ENERGETIC NATURE OF THE SYSTEM THERE WILL AGAIN BE A POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER AT THIS RANGE THE CRITICAL DETAILS OF
TRACK AND TIMING AND THUS THE REGION OF MAXIMUM SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL REMAIN VERY UNCLEAR. IN ANY EVENT...IN WAKE OF THIS
WEEKEND SYSTEM IT APPEARS THAT A BRIEF RESPITE OF COOL AND QUIET
WEATHER MAY BE IN STORE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...06/00Z
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015
SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM NEAR KSUX-KFOD-KMIW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY ALTHOUGH WITH A SLIGHT DRIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. WILL
SEE IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE/SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA OVERNIGHT
WITH CEILINGS CONTINUING TO LOWER ALONG WITH VISIBILITIES NORTH OF
THE FRONT. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KALO...KMCW AND
KFOD OVERNIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITION ON WEDNESDAY AS WARM
SECTOR EXPANDS NORTHWARD. BY MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH AND INCREASING
PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL KEEP SCATTERED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS IOWA INTO THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...COGIL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
222 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH SW FLOW FROM THE GULF
OF ALASKA AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL/HIGH PLAINS. MOIST PLUME EXTENDS
FROM THE GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE FEEDING IN THE PLAINS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE
SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS TO
SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND LIES JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA...WITH
BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE SE PART OF OUR CWA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF OUR CWA.
THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE ANALYSIS INDICATES
ML CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1500 J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR TO 500
J/KG IN OUR SE CWA. BULK SHEER IS APPROXIMATELY 30-35KT...SO
DEPENDING ON POSITION OF FRONT (CURRENTLY ADVERTISED TO SLIDE NORTH
INTO OUR SOUTHEAST)...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS MAIN
THREAT. IF FRONT WERE TO LIFT NORTH AS WARM FRONT WE COULD SEE
BETTER SB/ML CAPE AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW MORE ORGANIZED CELLS
IN THE SOUTHEAST. ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES PWAT VALUES ALREADY IN
EXCESS OF 1" OVER OUR EAST. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE ROUGHLY
TANGENTIAL/PARALLEL THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING PERPENDICULAR TO FRONTAL
ZONE THIS EVENING. AS THIS TRANSITION OCCURS THERE IS THE
FOR BACKBUILDING OR TRAINING AS VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR IN THE WARM
SECTOR FEEDS NORTH. THERE COULD BE A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IF
THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT. EITHER WAY WITH VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND
INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS.
TONIGHT-TUESDAY...UPSTREAM AREAS OF MID LEVEL VORTICITY WILL ROTATE
INTO THE CWA WITH INCREASING LIFT LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. AS TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE SW US AND MOVE
EAST WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VERY GOOD FORCING/MOISTURE ROTATES
THROUGH THE REGION. LARGE SCALE Q VECTOR FIELDS INDICATED FORCING
INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND OMEGA/MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE FIELDS SHOW SUPPORT FOR INCREASING COVERAGE/COMPLEX OF
SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS. ELEVATED INSTABILITY TRANSITIONS NORTHWARD
AND WEAKENS...HOWEVER THERE IS ENOUGH TO KEEP THUNDER MENTION IN
PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON
GENERAL LARGE SCALE PATTERN THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE ON TIMING OF
POTENTIAL PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIP...WITH BEST PRECIP SIGNAL AND
MOISTURE PROFILES OVERLAPPING TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA (THOUGH ECMWF MIGHT BE A
LITTLE EAST). THERE WILL BE MODERATE/ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...SO STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN...THOUGH SEVERE POTENTIAL MIGHT NOT BE AS
GOOD AS TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STRATUS LIMITING SURFACE
BASED PARCELS AND ANY ACTIVITY LIKELY EMBEDDED WITH OTHER SHOWER
CLUSTERS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015
MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR A WEST TO EAST END OF THE
PRECIPITATION AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN BEHIND THE TROUGH. AFTER A LULL
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM
COLORADO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...BUT THE
POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT HAS ONLY LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON SBCAPE INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AND A
COMBINATION OF MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THURSDAY EVENING. SEVERE THREAT WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP AFTER A CLOUDY
MORNING...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES
WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING.
OVERALL PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOWING
ONLY MINIMAL SBCAPE AVAILABLE SO SEVERE THREAT MAY NOT BE AS
GREAT. ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LOW WILL KICK OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY WITH A NEGATIVE TILT AND PROVIDE THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE PATTERN SUGGESTS A
SEVERE THREAT WITH MODELS SHOWING DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF OVER 50KTS
AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SUPERCELLS. IF CURRENT TIMING
TRENDS CONTINUE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A DRY SLOT SATURDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SUNDAY.
THE PATTERN FINALLY CHANGES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN A ZONAL FLOW WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO DRY
CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT BOTH TERMINALS
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING BY
LATE AFTERNOON. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE DURING
THE EVENING WITH VERY MOIST AIR MASS ON EASTERN EDGE OF STRONG
UPPER LOW BRINGING LOW STRATUS...MODERATE PRECIPITATION...AND
LIGHT FOG. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO TRANSITION TO IFR THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE BY 12Z. LIGHT FOG OR MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD REDUCING VISIBILITIES BELOW 3SM ESPECIALLY IN
THE 10-18Z TIME PERIOD. THIS IS A COMPLICATED AVIATION FORECAST
AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON LOCATION OF MORE INTENSE RAINFALL...SO I
STARTED SHOWING TRENDS BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE...HOWEVER WASNT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE PREVAILING LIFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1138 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 534 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015
ISSUED MINOR FORECAST UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS WITH
POPS...WINDS AND SKY. SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT...RAINS HAVE BEEN
HEAVY AT TIMES. WILL NEED TO REFINE QPF AND QPE SHORTLY.
STORMS HAVE BEEN SUB-SEVERE SO FAR BUT A FEW HAVE APPROACHED
SEVERE LIMITS. MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS IS DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL IF THEY WERE TO BECOME SEVERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW
WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
UPSTREAM OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE CWA...WITH A COLD FRONT NEAR IMPERIAL
NEBRASKA EXTENDING INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALREADY MOVING OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN COLORADO AND MOVING OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE TOWARDS THE
WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA.
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE
MAINLY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHERE MODELS HAD BEEN ADVERTISING
MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY 00Z (MAINLY EAST OF SURFACE
TROUGH). SO FAR RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS ML CAPE GENERALLY AROUND 500 J/KG
LIKELY DUE TO MUCH LOWER TD VALUES AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. HRRR/RAP HAVE BEEN SHOWING ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WHERE CAP HAS BEEN WEAKENED.
THERE IS A WINDOW FOR INCREASING SHEER AS COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND
DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF UPDRAFTS WE COULD SEE SOME ORGANIZED
CELLS...OTHERWISE IT APPEARS TO BE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORING PULSE
TYPE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS
OF 1000 J/KG DO RAISE CONCERNS FOR MICROBURST POTENTIAL AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT SO EVEN WEAKER UPDRAFTS COULD PRODUCE NEAR SEVERE OR
SEVERE WINDS AS THEY COLLAPSE.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING
ALONG/NORTH OF COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE RETURN AND
ELEVATED CAPE IN PLACE. BY LATE TONIGHT INSTABILITY BEGINS TO
WANE...WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING STARTS TO SHIFT NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION. THIS IS WHERE MODELS DIVERGE WITH NAM CONTINUING TO
INDICATE AND LULL OR DRY PERIOD WHILE ECMWF/GFS INDICATE POSSIBLE
OVERRUNNING OR STRATUS/FOG/DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT ALONG/NORTH OF THE
FRONT. TOUGH CALL AND WHILE I HEDGED TOWARD THE DRY NAM AT 12Z...I
COULD SEE IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN A LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE EVEN
EVOLVING BY MONDAY MORNING.
MONDAY...UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST US BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND
MOVE EAST WITH BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING SPREADING OVER THE CWA
BY LATE AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS TO POSSIBLE STRATUS
DURING THE DAY WE MAY OR MAY NOT HAVE A WINDOW FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA WHERE MODELS SHOW WAA
AND INCREASING TDS/INSTABILITY. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST STRATUS IS
MORE LIKELY TO LINGER...HOLDING TEMPS DOWN IN AND ANY INSTABILITY
WOULD BE ELEVATED AND WEAKER. DEPENDING ON CHOICE IN MODEL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY...HOWEVER
BETTER CHANCES SHOULD BE TIED TO STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING
LATER DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PRECEDE AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL AFFECT THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO COLORADO TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
POPS WILL INCREASE FROM MONDAY EVENING TO OVERNIGHT AS BETTER
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE MOVE NORTH INTO THE FA. PLAN TO GO WITH
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FA DURING THE EVENING
WITH LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES CLOSER TO THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. LIKELY POPS WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE FA OVERNIGHT AS
VERY FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND LIFT MOVE INTO THE FA. LIKELY AND
DEFINITE POPS WILL BE USED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
EVENING AS GOOD DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE FA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AROUND AN INCH SO WILL
INCLUDE MODERATE RAIN IN THE GRIDS TUESDAY. POPS WILL START
DECREASING TO CHANCE POPS AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
STARTS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA. SOME LIKELY POPS WILL STILL EXIST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES.
MIN TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE MID 40S IN EASTERN
COLORADO AND THE MID 50S IN THE EASTERN FA. MIN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S. MAX TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
SHOULD RANGE FROM 65 TO 70 AND 70 TO 75 WEDNESDAY.
IN THE EXTENDED...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWING
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW AND
INCREASING DYNAMICS WITH THE NEXT TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FA EACH DAY.
MIN TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM 45 TO 55.
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE MID
70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015
OVERALL THINKING FOR STRATUS/FOG REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED. HAVE
GROWN LESS CONFIDENT MVFR FOG WILL BE OBSERVED AT KGLD SO HAVE
REMOVED FOG MENTION. FORECAST GUIDANCE BECAME MORE OPTIMISTIC
TOWARDS CEILINGS SO FEEL THAT IFR CEILINGS ARE UNLIKELY NOW. MVFR
CEILINGS BETWEEN 1000-2000 FEET ARE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO.
SHORT TERM THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS AT KMCK HAS BECOME THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT ISSUE. ELEVATED STORMS CONTINUE MOVING TO THE NORTH.
STORMS COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...RRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1154 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015
Zonal but weak flow aloft continues over the Central Plains
between northern and southern branches with a few weak waves
moving through. Appears moderate mid-level isentropic lift
combined with one of these waves to spark overnight convection,
with another wave keeping isolated showers going in eastern Kansas
into the early afternoon. High- based nature of this activity
keeping much precip from what there is in check however. Water
vapor imagery suggesting a stronger wave rotating northeast out of
eastern New Mexico with convection firing ahead of it into
southeastern Colorado. Cold front was from northwestern Kansas
into northeastern Nebraska early this afternoon with a few cumulus
along it in central Nebraska. Dewpoints have dropped to around 40F
in southwest Kansas with thermal ridge ahead of front pushing temp
at CNK to near record levels.
Precipitation chances remain the main challenge through Monday
afternoon. Recent HRRR and RAP runs continue to attempt to produce
convection along the front, but have been too fast to do so. With
low levels rather dry to the west, the main player with convection
to the west and south could be via the New Mexico wave, or other
convective-induced waves from eastern Colorado. Isentropic upglide
looks less impressive than this morning but some is again present
and could be enough to continue or even produce convection into east
central Kansas late this evening and into much of Monday. Other
prime scenario for convection seems to be with eventual convection
generated in eastern Nebraska sinking south into northeast Kansas on
decent 850mb moisture convergence as a moderate low level jet veers
with time. This could linger well into Monday morning, and with the
earlier possibilities as well, have kept chance PoPs going into the
morning Monday, with lesser confidence in precip in the northwest
counties nearer the drier low level air. Details in precip activity
Monday afternoon will be largely impacted by the earlier activity,
but models increase low level moisture further, though NAM likely a
bit aggressive again, with CAPE possibly near 2000 J/kg ahead of any
outflow or front/effective front. Shear values again look meager to
support much severe weather but some potential remains. Have kept
highs cooler than today with more cloud/precip/moisture anticipated.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015
Models continue to show an active pattern for Monday night through
Sunday as they dig another closed low into the southwestern U.S. by
the end of the work week. This causes mid level flow to remain
from the southwest while gulf moisture continues advecting north.
So there looks to be plenty of moisture available with occasional
forcing mechanisms passing overhead such that there is a chance
for precip in every period of the forecast. The one period with
the lowest chance for precip remain Tuesday. There seems to be
agreement among the models that shortwave ridge will propagate
over eastern KS with some relatively dryer air moving in.
Therefore have a dry forecast for northeast and east central
KS. North central KS may be close enough to shortwave energy
lifting north through the high plains that have kept a small
chance for the western counties for Tuesday.
The best chance for showers and thunderstorms appears to be late
Tuesday night and Wednesday as a well defined shortwave is progged
to lift across northeast KS. There are some minor differences in
timing of the vort max lifting out. Nevertheless with little or no
inhibition to convection expect showers and thunderstorms to
overspread the area and have increased POPs into the 70 to 80
percent range.
Wednesday night through Saturday does not look like it will be
constant precip, but the pattern makes it difficult to say when
chances are better than not. With occasional low amplitude waves
within the southwest flow and a moist airmass remaining in place,
the forecast has a chance for precip each day. There are even some
signs of a weak frontal boundary moving into the forecast on
Friday which may help focus moisture and provide some lift.
Otherwise think chances could be on the increase for Saturday
night and Sunday as the upper low begins to lift out of the
southern Rockies. Because the GFS is a little further north and
doesn`t have as much shortwave energy rotating through the
southern plains, have kept POPs in the chance category for now.
There should not be any big swings in temps through the period due
to the persistent pattern. If anything there may be a slight cool
down for Wednesday expecting cloud cover and precip to limit
heating. Otherwise temps should be seasonable with lows around 60
and highs in the mid 70s to near 80
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015
There is a slight chance for showers and storms early this morning
although timing and exact location is tough to forecast. It does
appear that a portion of the afternoon will remain dry at all of
the sites. There is another round possible in the evening which
may be closer to MHK.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Sanders
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1008 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015
.UPDATE...
LOWERED A FEW SITES OVERNIGHT LOW AND TWEAKED POPS THRU 12Z.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION IS WINDING DOWN NOW WITH A SHOWER RECENTLY AS FAR EAST
AS MANSFIELD AND STONEWALL. SO WILL KEEP 00-06 GRID FOR THE
OVERNIGHT WITH HRRR SHOWING A BIT OF QPF ALONG WITH NEW NAM. THE
BIGGER PICTURE SHOWS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHWRS/TSTMS OVER OK AND
N TX AND SOME AUSTIN WAY DRIFTING MORE IN OUR DIRECTION. ALSO IN
THE WAKE RAINFALL...PARTS OF I-30 ALREADY DOWN AT OR BELOW FORECAST
NUMBERS SO THESE HAVE BEEN UPDATED AND WILL LIKELY WARM A BIT
BEFORE DROPPING AGAIN BEFORE DAYBREAK. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT
THIS TIME AS LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP TONIGHT HELPING TO DEVELOP MORE
CONVECTION WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. /24/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING.
HOWEVER...WIDELY SCT CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
MAINLY W OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR...WITH A MORE CONCENTRATED BAND OF
CONVECTION AFFECTING AREAS ALONG/N OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF NE TX
AND SE OK THROUGH MID-EVENING. THIS SHOULD REMAIN W OF THE TXK
TERMINAL...WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THE REMAINDER OF THE WIDELY
SCT CONVECTION DIMINISHING BY MID TO LATE EVENING.
THUS...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION FOR THE AFFECTED
AREAS WITH THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. SHOULD SEE CONSIDERABLE AC/CIRRUS
OVERNIGHT OVER E TX/WRN LA/SW AR...AS A SHORTWAVE EJECTS NE ACROSS
NE TX/SE OK LATE. THIS MAY YIELD SCT CONVECTION BETWEEN 06-12Z
WEDNESDAY GENERALLY ALONG/N OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR...SLOWLY
SPREADING ENE INTO SW AR/NW LA BY MIDDAY. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM...ALTHOUGH SHOULD SEE A
RETURN OF LOW MVFR CIGS AFTER 07Z OVER E TX...WITH IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. LOW MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AFTER 12Z OVER WRN LA...WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR BY LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY. SE WINDS 5-10KTS TONIGHT WILL BECOME S AND
INCREASE TO 8-12KTS AFTER 15Z...WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS POSSIBLE OVER
E TX. /15/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A COMBINATION OF A WEAK INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT
HAS CONTRIBUTED TO SHWRS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING AND SPREADING NWRD
THIS AFTERNOON OVER ROUGHLY THE WRN HALF OF OUR REGION...MAINLY
OVER OUR FAR WRN EDGE OF NE TX FROM RUSK AND JACKSONVILLE NORTH
TO TYLER AND MINEOLA. MORE ISOLD ACTIVITY IS FOUND FARTHER EAST
NEAR TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY IN DEEP E TX AND FAR WRN LA. THEREFORE...
HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE TO MID CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT DESPITE
DECREASING INSTABILITY AFTER SUNSET. CLOUDS WILL ALSO LINGER OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO SEND OUR
DEW POINTS HIGHER...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20.
A SIMILAR TREND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS WE
REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE UPPER TROF TO OUR WEST AND THE UPPER
RIDGE TO OUR EAST...MEANING SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN OVER OUR WRN HALF AS ADDITIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES AND
DAYTIME INSTABILITY COMBINE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS.
A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL VERY LATE
IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING
SOUTH INTO OUR REGION ON MONDAY. UNTIL THEN...TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. /19/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 66 82 66 85 / 20 30 10 20
MLU 62 84 65 86 / 10 10 10 20
DEQ 63 78 65 82 / 30 30 10 20
TXK 65 80 66 84 / 20 30 20 20
ELD 63 82 66 85 / 10 10 10 20
TYR 67 81 67 83 / 40 30 20 30
GGG 66 81 66 83 / 30 30 20 30
LFK 68 84 68 85 / 20 30 20 30
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
24/15/19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1242 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015
.AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THE
EVENING WITH CLOUDS AND CEILINGS AROUND 4-5 KFT. THEN DURING THE
LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA AND INCREASE BACK TO VFR
DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
8-13 KNOTS DROPPING OFF INTO THE THE EVENING AROUND 4-8 KTNOS.
WINDS PICK BACK UP TO 10-15 KNOTS AFTER 06/14Z TUESDAY. /06/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES ARE CLIMBING NICELY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING...ALREADY IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS AS OF 16Z. CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON AFTERNOON HIGHS AND HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR
CHANGES TO WIND AND DEW POINT GRIDS TO BETTER MIMIC CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS GOING FORWARD. NO OTHER ADJUSTMENTS ARE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT. /19/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY. CURRENT IR IMAGERY SHOWING THE
INTRUSION OF SOME HIGH/THIN CIRRUS FROM DEBRIS EARLIER IN THE
PLAINS. ALSO EVIDENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE TX AND SW AR/N LA
TERMINALS IS SOME CLOUD COVER IN THE 6-8KFT LEVEL. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL AGAIN BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY WITH SCT CU FIELD
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE 16-18Z TIMEFRAME AND ADVANCE NORTHWARD.
A FEW CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THESE HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY BUT SCT DECKS BEST DESCRIBE WHAT WILL MOSTLY OCCUR. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR OUR NE TX
TERMINALS TODAY AS THE HRRR IS SHOWING THIS POSSIBILITY.
COVERAGE CERTAINLY WILL NOT SUPPORT THE MENTION OF THIS IN OUR
12Z TAF PACKAGE. LOOK FOR WINDS FROM THE SE IN THE 6-12KT RANGE
TODAY WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY OUR NE TX
TERMINAL LOCATIONS.
SOME INDICATIONS OF POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS OUR NE TX TERMINAL LOCATIONS.
FOR NOW HAVE JUST MADE MENTION OF THIS AT THE LFK TERMINAL.
13
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGING HOLDING IN PLACE ACROSS AREA...WITH SFC HIGH
BEGINNING TO DRIFT EAST OF MS RIVER VALLEY. LOW LVL SE-S FLOW
TO INCREASE GRADUALLY NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND WILL BEGIN TO
INTRODUCE LOW CHANCES FOR CONVECTION FROM THE WEST...BEGINNING
TUESDAY. NAM MODEL TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH DEEP MOISTURE...AS EAST TO
WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL PLAINS...AND
DEVELOPING DRY LINE REMAINING OVER FAR WEST TX THRU THE WEEK.
ALTHOUGH DECENT LOW LVL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL SET UP...WILL LACK
SPEED IN LOW LVL JET AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN SVR WX WITH THE
MOSTLY DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT MAY OCCUR. AFTN HIGHS IN LOWER TO
MID 80S WILL LIKELY PERSIST...YET OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY EDGE INTO MID
TO UPPER 60S AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY DEEPENS. SFC LOW TO DEVELOP
OVER PANHANDLES BY WEEKEND...AND AS THIS LOW BEGINS TO KICK OUT TO
NE LATE IN WEEKEND...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH REGION.
IN THE MEANTIME...A VERY WEAK SEA BREEZE FRONT MAY BRING ISOLD
SHOWERS INTO SE CORNER OF CWA THIS AFTN.
VII
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 85 63 83 64 / 10 10 20 20
MLU 84 61 85 61 / 10 10 10 10
DEQ 83 60 82 62 / 10 10 20 20
TXK 84 62 82 63 / 10 10 20 20
ELD 84 60 86 62 / 10 10 10 10
TYR 84 62 80 65 / 10 10 30 30
GGG 84 62 81 65 / 10 10 30 30
LFK 85 65 81 66 / 10 10 30 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
06/99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1059 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015
.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES ARE CLIMBING NICELY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING...ALREADY IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS AS OF 16Z. CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON AFTERNOON HIGHS AND HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR
CHANGES TO WIND AND DEW POINT GRIDS TO BETTER MIMIC CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS GOING FORWARD. NO OTHER ADJUSTMENTS ARE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT. /19/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY. CURRENT IR IMAGERY SHOWING THE
INTRUSION OF SOME HIGH/THIN CIRRUS FROM DEBRIS EARLIER IN THE
PLAINS. ALSO EVIDENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE TX AND SW AR/N LA
TERMINALS IS SOME CLOUD COVER IN THE 6-8KFT LEVEL. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL AGAIN BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY WITH SCT CU FIELD
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE 16-18Z TIMEFRAME AND ADVANCE NORTHWARD.
A FEW CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THESE HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY BUT SCT DECKS BEST DESCRIBE WHAT WILL MOSTLY OCCUR. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR OUR NE TX
TERMINALS TODAY AS THE HRRR IS SHOWING THIS POSSIBILITY.
COVERAGE CERTAINLY WILL NOT SUPPORT THE MENTION OF THIS IN OUR
12Z TAF PACKAGE. LOOK FOR WINDS FROM THE SE IN THE 6-12KT RANGE
TODAY WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY OUR NE TX
TERMINAL LOCATIONS.
SOME INDICATIONS OF POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS OUR NE TX TERMINAL LOCATIONS.
FOR NOW HAVE JUST MADE MENTION OF THIS AT THE LFK TERMINAL.
13
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGING HOLDING IN PLACE ACROSS AREA...WITH SFC HIGH
BEGINNING TO DRIFT EAST OF MS RIVER VALLEY. LOW LVL SE-S FLOW
TO INCREASE GRADUALLY NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND WILL BEGIN TO
INTRODUCE LOW CHANCES FOR CONVECTION FROM THE WEST...BEGINNING
TUESDAY. NAM MODEL TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH DEEP MOISTURE...AS EAST TO
WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL PLAINS...AND
DEVELOPING DRY LINE REMAINING OVER FAR WEST TX THRU THE WEEK.
ALTHOUGH DECENT LOW LVL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL SET UP...WILL LACK
SPEED IN LOW LVL JET AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN SVR WX WITH THE
MOSTLY DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT MAY OCCUR. AFTN HIGHS IN LOWER TO
MID 80S WILL LIKELY PERSIST...YET OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY EDGE INTO MID
TO UPPER 60S AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY DEEPENS. SFC LOW TO DEVELOP
OVER PANHANDLES BY WEEKEND...AND AS THIS LOW BEGINS TO KICK OUT TO
NE LATE IN WEEKEND...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH REGION.
IN THE MEANTIME...A VERY WEAK SEA BREEZE FRONT MAY BRING ISOLD
SHOWERS INTO SE CORNER OF CWA THIS AFTN.
VII
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 85 63 83 64 / 10 10 20 20
MLU 84 61 85 61 / 10 10 10 10
DEQ 83 60 82 62 / 10 10 20 20
TXK 84 62 82 63 / 10 10 20 20
ELD 84 60 86 62 / 10 10 10 10
TYR 84 62 80 65 / 10 10 30 30
GGG 84 62 81 65 / 10 10 30 30
LFK 85 65 81 66 / 10 10 30 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
546 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY. CURRENT IR IMAGERY SHOWING THE
INTRUSION OF SOME HIGH/THIN CIRRUS FROM DEBRIS EARLIER IN THE
PLAINS. ALSO EVIDENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE TX AND SW AR/N LA
TERMINALS IS SOME CLOUD COVER IN THE 6-8KFT LEVEL. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL AGAIN BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY WITH SCT CU FIELD
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE 16-18Z TIMEFRAME AND ADVANCE NORTHWARD.
A FEW CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THESE HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY BUT SCT DECKS BEST DESCRIBE WHAT WILL MOSTLY OCCUR. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR OUR NE TX
TERMINALS TODAY AS THE HRRR IS SHOWING THIS POSSIBILITY.
COVERAGE CERTAINLY WILL NOT SUPPORT THE MENTION OF THIS IN OUR
12Z TAF PACKAGE. LOOK FOR WINDS FROM THE SE IN THE 6-12KT RANGE
TODAY WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY OUR NE TX
TERMINAL LOCATIONS.
SOME INDICATIONS OF POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS OUR NE TX TERMINAL LOCATIONS.
FOR NOW HAVE JUST MADE MENTION OF THIS AT THE LFK TERMINAL.
13
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGING HOLDING IN PLACE ACROSS AREA...WITH SFC HIGH
BEGINNING TO DRIFT EAST OF MS RIVER VALLEY. LOW LVL SE-S FLOW
TO INCREASE GRADUALLY NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND WILL BEGIN TO
INTRODUCE LOW CHANCES FOR CONVECTION FROM THE WEST...BEGINNING
TUESDAY. NAM MODEL TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH DEEP MOISTURE...AS EAST TO
WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL PLAINS...AND
DEVELOPING DRY LINE REMAINING OVER FAR WEST TX THRU THE WEEK.
ALTHOUGH DECENT LOW LVL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL SET UP...WILL LACK
SPEED IN LOW LVL JET AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN SVR WX WITH THE
MOSTLY DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT MAY OCCUR. AFTN HIGHS IN LOWER TO
MID 80S WILL LIKELY PERSIST...YET OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY EDGE INTO MID
TO UPPER 60S AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY DEEPENS. SFC LOW TO DEVELOP
OVER PANHANDLES BY WEEKEND...AND AS THIS LOW BEGINS TO KICK OUT TO
NE LATE IN WEEKEND...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH REGION.
IN THE MEANTIME...A VERY WEAK SEA BREEZE FRONT MAY BRING ISOLD
SHOWERS INTO SE CORNER OF CWA THIS AFTN.
VII
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 85 63 83 64 / 10 10 20 20
MLU 84 61 85 61 / 10 10 10 10
DEQ 83 60 82 62 / 10 10 20 20
TXK 84 62 82 63 / 10 10 20 20
ELD 84 60 86 62 / 10 10 10 10
TYR 84 62 80 65 / 10 10 30 30
GGG 84 62 81 65 / 10 10 30 30
LFK 85 65 81 66 / 10 10 30 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
VII/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
954 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING VERY WARM AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE LOCAL AREA. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT...THEN DROPS INTO VIRGINIA LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING. LOW PRESSURE WILL SPIN
OFF OR NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST UPDATED TO BOOST POPS ACROSS AREAS NEAR AND N OF RIC
WHERE SHRAS/TSTMS HAVE BEEN WIDESPREAD THIS EVENG. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING SVR BUT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE PSBL WITH AN OCCASIONAL
LIGHTING STRIKE. COVERAGE WILL DECREASE AFTR MIDNITE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE
OF THE VA/NC COAST, EXTENDING BACK ACROSS EASTERN NC. ~1006 MB LOW
PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED ACROSS NEWFOUNDLAND, WITH SFC COLD FRONT
SNAKING BACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INTO NE PA/NW NJ AND THE EASTERN
GRT LAKES. A PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM SE PA INTO SRN
MD AND NORTHERN VA.
HAVE NOTED SOME INCREASING CU OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE AND EXPECT TO SEE A BIT MORE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA ALONG THE TROUGH BY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. DO HAVE SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS ACRS THE FAR
N/NW LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. EXPECT ANY SHOWERS TO BE SHORT LIVED
OWING TO FLAT/QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND SHOULD THEREFORE ALLOW
LIMITED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND WILL YIELD A VERY SLOW
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW.
BY TONIGHT, SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOTED ON IR SAT ACRS THE LWR GRT
LAKES WILL DAMPEN AS IT DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC. RESULTANT UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO THE WNW, AND WOULD ALLOW
ANY LIGNERING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO CROSS A BIT FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. GIVEN THE LIMITED ACTIVITY THUS FAR, AND W/ HRRR NOT OVERLY
EXCITED ABOUT ACTIVITY TONIGHT, WILL HANG ON TO A 30-40% RAIN
CHANCE FOR SOME SCT SHRAS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WEST, AND LATE
TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT FOR THE EASTERN SHORE. FARTHER S-SE, EXPECT DRY
CONDS TO CONTINUE UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LWR 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE LINGERED A SLIGHT CHC FOR LINGERING SHOWERS JUST AFTER SUNSET
TOMORROW MORNING...W/AREA OF WEAK LIFT SLIDING ESE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT COINCIDENT WITH PLENTY OF LINGERING LLVL
MOISTURE. ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE BRIEF AND WIDELY SCT AT MOST.
OTHERWISE...DRY IN THE MORNING FOR MOST. EARLY SUN WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING AFTN CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZONES. STRONG HEATING
AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR
SOME SCT AFTN SHRAS/THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVR WRN AND NRN COUNTIES
LATE IN THE AFTN INTO WED NIGHT. FOR TEMPS, STILL ON THE WARM SIDE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN EXPECTATION OF A SLOWER FRONTAL
PROGRESSION...RESULTING IN A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY EARLY AND
HIGHS FM 80-85 WEST OF THE BAY...TO THE 70S ON THE ERN SHORE. FRONT
BECOMES VERY DIFFUSE TOMORROW NIGHT AND WASHES OUT BY THE TIME IT
REACHES THE VA/NC BORDER. MEANWHILE, SFC LOW PRES WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
SHAPE AND CLOSE OFF ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA/SE GA WED
AFTN/NIGHT. WEAK SFC RIDGING WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVERHEAD AND
ALLOW FOR A DRY OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. HOWEVER,
EXPECT A GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD TO LINGER OVERNIGHT
INTO THU MORNING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA. GENERALLY PARTLY SUNNY FARTHER SOUTH A 20-30% CHC FOR A
SHOWER OR TSTM, AGAIN MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. E-NE WINDS
WILL RESULT IN HI TEMPS RANGING THRU THE 70S TO NEAR 80 SW TO THE
UPPER 60S/LWR 70S ERN SHORE.
STILL MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF AFOREMENTIONED LOW ALONG THE SE
COAST. MODELS STILL HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING THIS SYSTEM...WHICH IS
CASTING A BIT OF LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM.
THE 12Z/5 GFS CONTINUES TO BRING THE SFC LOW INLAND OF THE SC/NC
COAST...WITH THE 12Z/NAM NOW IN CLOSE ENOUGH TO COVER THU NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. ITS SOLUTION IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS AND TAKES THE
SURFACE LOW INLAND ACROSS EXTREME NE GA/COASTAL SC BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. FOR ITS PART, THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF REMAINS OFFSHORE, BUT
HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS IN MOVING A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH
THE SFC LOW...AND EVEN KEEPS THE LOW NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST FOR FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HAVE GONE WITH A
GFS WEIGHTED GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR FRIDAY UNTIL MODELS COME INTO A BIT
CLOSER AGREEMENT. EITEHR WAY, EXPECT FRIDAY TO BE PREDOMINATELY
DRY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, BUT SHOULD SEE SOME (MAINLY) DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA (BEST CHC SOUTH OF THE BORDER INTO NC). HIGHS 80-85 INLAND,
COOLER U60S TO M70S ALONG THE COAST IN CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH LO PRES SPINNING JUST OFF OR
ALNG THE SE OR NC CST FRI NGT INTO MON MORNG. THEN...MODELS SHOW
THE LO WEAKENING AND GETTING PUSHED NNE ALNG OR JUST OFF THE VA
CST MON NGT INTO TUE MORNG...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE W.
THAT FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACRS THE AREA TUE INTO TUE NGT. WILL
HAVE 20%-30% POPS FOR SHOWERS OR TSTMS OVR MUCH OF THE REGION FRI
NGT THRU MON NGT...DUE TO MOISTURE/LIFT FM THE LO PRES AREA.
THEN...HAVE 30%-40% POPS FOR TUE/TUE NGT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT. TEMPS WILL BE ABV NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S
TO MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROAD AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF RICHMOND METRO. PRECIP IS MOVG EAST WITH A
SLOW MOVG SFC TROF. A COLD FRONT REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN NY
STRETCHING WEST INTO PA AND OH. S-SW WINDS 5-15KT WILL BE
PREDOMINATE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AREA OF RAIN
SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE TOWARDS MIDNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
STRONG ABOUT THAT. SOME PERSISTENT SHOWERS MAY LAST WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK: THERE WILL BE A DAILY CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. OTHERWISE
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. LATE IN THE
WEEK...PATCHY FOG WILL BE PSBL AROUND SUNRISE.
&&
.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU THU. HI PRES WILL SLIDE
FARTHER OUT TO SEA TNGT THRU WED. MODELS STILL SHOW LO PRES
SPINNING JUST OFF OR NEAR THE SE CST THU INTO SUN. EXPECT SSW
WINDS 15 KT OR LESS TNGT INTO WED NGT...THEN E OR SE WINDS 5 TO 15
KT THU INTO SUN. WAVES WILL BE 1 TO 2 FT...AND SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4
FT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAS/MAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...TMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
908 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING VERY WARM AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE LOCAL AREA. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT...THEN DROPS INTO VIRGINIA LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING. LOW PRESSURE WILL SPIN
OFF OR NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE
OF THE VA/NC COAST, EXTENDING BACK ACROSS EASTERN NC. ~1006 MB
LOW PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED ACROSS NEWFOUNDLAND, WITH SFC COLD FRONT
SNAKING BACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INTO NE PA/NW NJ AND THE EASTERN
GRT LAKES. A PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM SE PA INTO SRN
MD AND NORTHERN VA.
HAVE NOTED SOME INCREASING CU OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE AND EXPECT TO SEE A BIT MORE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA ALONG THE TROUGH BY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. DO HAVE SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS ACRS THE FAR
N/NW LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. EXPECT ANY SHOWERS TO BE SHORT LIVED
OWING TO FLAT/QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND SHOULD THEREFORE ALLOW
LIMITED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND WILL YIELD A VERY SLOW
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW.
BY TONIGHT, SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOTED ON IR SAT ACRS THE LWR GRT
LAKES WILL DAMPEN AS IT DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC. RESULTANT UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO THE WNW, AND WOULD ALLOW
ANY LIGNERING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO CROSS A BIT FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. GIVEN THE LIMITED ACTIVITY THUS FAR, AND W/ HRRR NOT OVERLY
EXCITED ABOUT ACTIVITY TONIGHT, WILL HANG ON TO A 30-40% RAIN
CHANCE FOR SOME SCT SHRAS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WEST, AND LATE
TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT FOR THE EASTERN SHORE. FARTHER S-SE, EXPECT DRY
CONDS TO CONTINUE UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LWR 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE LINGERED A SLIGHT CHC FOR LINGERING SHOWERS JUST AFTER SUNSET
TOMORROW MORNING...W/AREA OF WEAK LIFT SLIDING ESE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT COINCIDENT WITH PLENTY OF LINGERING LLVL
MOISTURE. ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE BRIEF AND WIDELY SCT AT MOST.
OTHERWISE...DRY IN THE MORNING FOR MOST. EARLY SUN WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING AFTN CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZONES. STRONG HEATING
AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR
SOME SCT AFTN SHRAS/THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVR WRN AND NRN COUNTIES
LATE IN THE AFTN INTO WED NIGHT. FOR TEMPS, STILL ON THE WARM SIDE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN EXPECTATION OF A SLOWER FRONTAL
PROGRESSION...RESULTING IN A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY EARLY AND
HIGHS FM 80-85 WEST OF THE BAY...TO THE 70S ON THE ERN SHORE. FRONT
BECOMES VERY DIFFUSE TOMORROW NIGHT AND WASHES OUT BY THE TIME IT
REACHES THE VA/NC BORDER. MEANWHILE, SFC LOW PRES WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
SHAPE AND CLOSE OFF ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA/SE GA WED
AFTN/NIGHT. WEAK SFC RIDGING WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVERHEAD AND
ALLOW FOR A DRY OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. HOWEVER,
EXPECT A GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD TO LINGER OVERNIGHT
INTO THU MORNING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA. GENERALLY PARTLY SUNNY FARTHER SOUTH A 20-30% CHC FOR A
SHOWER OR TSTM, AGAIN MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. E-NE WINDS
WILL RESULT IN HI TEMPS RANGING THRU THE 70S TO NEAR 80 SW TO THE
UPPER 60S/LWR 70S ERN SHORE.
STILL MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF AFOREMENTIONED LOW ALONG THE SE
COAST. MODELS STILL HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING THIS SYSTEM...WHICH IS
CASTING A BIT OF LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM.
THE 12Z/5 GFS CONTINUES TO BRING THE SFC LOW INLAND OF THE SC/NC
COAST...WITH THE 12Z/NAM NOW IN CLOSE ENOUGH TO COVER THU NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. ITS SOLUTION IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS AND TAKES THE
SURFACE LOW INLAND ACROSS EXTREME NE GA/COASTAL SC BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. FOR ITS PART, THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF REMAINS OFFSHORE, BUT
HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS IN MOVING A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH
THE SFC LOW...AND EVEN KEEPS THE LOW NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST FOR FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HAVE GONE WITH A
GFS WEIGHTED GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR FRIDAY UNTIL MODELS COME INTO A BIT
CLOSER AGREEMENT. EITEHR WAY, EXPECT FRIDAY TO BE PREDOMINATELY
DRY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, BUT SHOULD SEE SOME (MAINLY) DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA (BEST CHC SOUTH OF THE BORDER INTO NC). HIGHS 80-85 INLAND,
COOLER U60S TO M70S ALONG THE COAST IN CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH LO PRES SPINNING JUST OFF OR
ALNG THE SE OR NC CST FRI NGT INTO MON MORNG. THEN...MODELS SHOW
THE LO WEAKENING AND GETTING PUSHED NNE ALNG OR JUST OFF THE VA
CST MON NGT INTO TUE MORNG...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE W.
THAT FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACRS THE AREA TUE INTO TUE NGT. WILL
HAVE 20%-30% POPS FOR SHOWERS OR TSTMS OVR MUCH OF THE REGION FRI
NGT THRU MON NGT...DUE TO MOISTURE/LIFT FM THE LO PRES AREA.
THEN...HAVE 30%-40% POPS FOR TUE/TUE NGT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT. TEMPS WILL BE ABV NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S
TO MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROAD AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF RICHMOND METRO. PRECIP IS MOVG EAST WITH A
SLOW MOVG SFC TROF. A COLD FRONT REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN NY
STRETCHING WEST INTO PA AND OH. S-SW WINDS 5-15KT WILL BE
PREDOMINATE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AREA OF RAIN
SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE TOWARDS MIDNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
STRONG ABOUT THAT. SOME PERSISTENT SHOWERS MAY LAST WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK: THERE WILL BE A DAILY CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. OTHERWISE
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. LATE IN THE
WEEK...PATCHY FOG WILL BE PSBL AROUND SUNRISE.
&&
.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU THU. HI PRES WILL SLIDE
FARTHER OUT TO SEA TNGT THRU WED. MODELS STILL SHOW LO PRES
SPINNING JUST OFF OR NEAR THE SE CST THU INTO SUN. EXPECT SSW
WINDS 15 KT OR LESS TNGT INTO WED NGT...THEN E OR SE WINDS 5 TO 15
KT THU INTO SUN. WAVES WILL BE 1 TO 2 FT...AND SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4
FT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...TMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
118 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD SHALLOW TROUGH ACROSS
SRN CANADA INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING
NE THROUGH NRN ONTARIO WAS DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH ERN UPPER
MICHIGAN. THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND 700-300 MB QVECTOR
CONV AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH HAD MOVED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AIR WAS QUICKLY MOVING INTO UPPER
MICHIGAN...PER 00Z KINL SOUNDING...WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE
30S OVER THE NORTH AND WEST. IR LOOP SHOWED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
LINGERING OVER MOST OF UPPER MICHIGAN WITH CLEARING ONLY OVER THE
FAR WEST.
TODAY...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES...EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO DEPART EARLY LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WITH ONLY FEW/SCT CU DEVELOPING. MIXING TO AROUND 5K FEET INLAND
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 5C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. THE WEAK NRLY WINDS OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP READINGS IN
THE 50S CLOSER TO THE SHORE. WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 20S...INLAND RH VALUES WILL FALL OFF TO 20 TO 25
PCT.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY MON NIGHT
THROUGH TUE. WITH PWATS DROPPING DOWN BELOW.25 INCH AND LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED UNDER THE SFC HIGH...MIN TEMPS NEAR FREEZING ARE EXPECTED
AT THE TYPICAL INLAND COLD LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015
TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI AHEAD
OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN SUNNY
SKIES...THOUGH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY FILTER IN THE FROM SE DURING
THE AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS HAVE TRENDED DOWN A
LITTLE BIT ON THE QPF FOR LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED ALONG AN 850 HPA
WARM FRONT/300-310K ISENTROPIC LIFT. WITH STOUT MID-LEVEL RIDGING
MOVING OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND OVERALL DEEPER MOISTURE AND LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINING CONFINED TO THE WESTERN
CWA...KEPT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEST HALF. PRECIP CHANCES
DIMINISH TO LOW-END SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE WEST WED NIGHT AS THE
LOW-LEVEL WAA EXITS TO THE NE AND MID-LEVEL FORCING WELL SW OF THE
REGION STRUGGLES TO WORK INTO THE RIDGE.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DEEP TROUGHING MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC NW
LATE TODAY WILL HELP KICK A SLOW-MOVING MID-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW ACROSS
THE SW STATES BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL CONSOLIDATE A BROAD SFC LOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES ON WED. THE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK NNE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEFORE BEGINNING TO TURN EASTWARD OVER
WESTERN ONTARIO. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW WELL THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
CAN ERODE THE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES
BY THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE OVERALL
PATTERN...WITH THE TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT CLEARING THE CWA BY
FRIDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...THE CANADIAN GEM IS QUITE SLOW...SENDING
THE TROUGH WELL NORTH AND WASHING OUT THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA
ON SATURDAY. THE GFS FALLS BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BUT LEANS
TOWARD THE ECMWF. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MID-LEVEL ENERGY TO CHIP
AWAY AT THE RIDGE...BUT LIKELY NOT AS FAST AS IS PROGGED BY THE
ECMWF. HAVE THEREFORE CHOSEN TO FOLLOW A SOLUTION CLOSE TO THAT OF
THE GFS.
WITH ALL THAT TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PUSH INTO THE WESTERN CWA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AND GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD AS FORCING FROM THE MID-
LEVEL WAVE WORKS OVER THE CWA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
ENDS CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST FRIDAY EVENING.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AFTER A LULL IN PRECIP ON SATURDAY...A LARGE
PORTION OF THE MAIN WESTERN TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA
FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 117 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL 3 TAF SITES THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015
FOG IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THIS MORNING OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR BUT WILL DISSIPATE AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIRS BUILDS
OVER THE UPPER LAKES FROM THE W-NW TODAY. EXPECT THE HIGH TO DRIFT
INTO SE ONTARIO LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AS ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO NW ONTARIO...AD A LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
PLAINS. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY WHILE THE ONTARIO HIGH DRIFTS ACROSS HUDSON BAY INTO QUEBEC.
THE LOW WILL DRAG A TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM
THU INTO THU NIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20
KNOTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1253 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015
.AVIATION...
MAINLY MID CLOUDS LEFT BEHIND THIS MORNINGS LINE OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY WORKING
THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
EVENING...THUS THEIR REMAINS A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...BUT AREAL COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES THE MENTION
IN THE TAFS. A SHORT PERIOD OF LOWER CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THE FROPA...AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST...ALLOWING
DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN. TONIGHT SHOULD BE DRY...WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY RETURNING NORTH TOMORROW AS A WARM FRONT. IT APPEARS RAIN
SHOULD AT LEAST REACH THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES (DTW/DET/YIP)...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW FOR CEILING AOB 5000FT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MEDIUM
TOMORROW.
* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN AGAIN
TOMORROW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1027 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015
UPDATE...
MOISTURE AXIS (850-700 MB THETA-E RIDGE) WORKING THROUGH SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...GENERATING LINE OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
THUNDER. AMOUNT OF RECOVERY BEHIND THIS BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL BE
KEY THIS AFTERNOON...AS SURFACE COLD FRONT ADVANCES SOUTH THROUGH
THE CWA. STILL...SURFACE DEW PTS WILL LIKELY BE HARD PRESSED TO
REACH/EXCEED 60 DEGREES...AND CAPES WILL LIKELY BUILD TO AROUND
1000 J/KG WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S. PLANNING ON CARRYING
SCATTERED/CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE LACK OF
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...AS HRRR ALSO SHOWING LITTLE ACTIVITY. COULD
SEE A SCENARIO WHERE COOLER WATERS OF LAKE HURON PROVIDE LITTLE
BOOST TO THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE THUMB REGION...AND
WOULD NOT RULE OUT THE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALLOWING AN ISOLATED
CELL TO APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS...AS FREEZING LEVELS ARE
IDEAL...AND WIND FIELDS ARE MODERATE (25 TO 30 KNOTS OF 0-5KM BULK
SHEAR). BUT AGAIN...THAT IS ASSUMING WE SUFFICIENTALY RECOVER...IF
CLOUDS REMAIN LOCKED IN...THEN FORGET IT.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 352 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015
SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT
AFTER AN OUTSTANDING WEEKEND OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER...AN ACTIVE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN WILL GET UNDERWAY TO START THE WEEK. BEGINNING
THIS MORNING...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MARK THE LEADING
EDGE OF INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVANCING THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN. MORNING COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST FROM FLINT TO THE TRI
CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB BUT ALL AREAS WILL HAVE AT LEAST A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AS THE MOISTURE SURGE PROGRESSES THROUGH THE REGION. THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL THEN TAKE OVER DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THAT IS WHEN THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL SHIFT GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE
STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON RECOVERY OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY THAT WILL
BE LIMITED BY MORNING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.
RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
EXPANDING IN COVERAGE OVER SW LOWER MICHIGAN SINCE MIDNIGHT. THIS IS
OCCURRING ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WITH A
MODESTLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET...BOTH OF WHICH ARE GENERATING A
TYPICAL PATTERN OF NOCTURNAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THE 00Z MODELS
HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THIS SCENARIO JUDGING BY THETA-E AND
WIND FIELDS IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER. PREFER THOSE THAT ARE MORE
BULLISH ON THE MAINTENANCE OF MORNING QPF OVER SE MICHIGAN NOW THAT
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS PROVING ADEQUATE TO GENERATE CONVECTION. FOR
NOW...PLAN TO NUDGE MORNING POPS UP INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE IN
THE TRI CITIES AND INTO HIGH LIKELY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE U.S. 23
CORRIDOR TO ACCOUNT FOR SOUTHWARD EXPANSION ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT.
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT INDICATING THE COLD FRONT IS ON PACE
TO BE THROUGH THE TRI CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT IT WILL TAKE UNTIL THEN FOR BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY TO OCCUR ON THE HEELS OF THE MORNING SHOWERS AND CONVECTIVE
CLOUD DEBRIS. THIS SUGGESTS LEANING THE FORECAST TOWARD THE LOWER
END OF THE MODEL RANGE FOR SURFACE BASED CAPE. THE NAM CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE CAPE REACHING 1500-1800 J/KG SUBJECT TO SURFACE DEWPOINT
RISING INTO THE LOWER 60S AS SURFACE TEMPERATURE RECOVERS INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S. THE RAP AND GFS ALSO INDICATE SURFACE DEWPOINT
REACHING THE LOWER 60S BUT PRODUCE CAPE CLOSER TO 1000 J/KG WITH
MAIN DIFFERENCE BEING SHALLOWER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS IS
GENERALLY PREFERRED CONSIDERING THE WARM LARGE SCALE UPPER AIR
PATTERN...ESPECIALLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE ONE WILD CARD TO
MONITOR IS THE HINT OF MCV DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MIDWEST THAT COULD
HELP A FEW STORMS OVERACHIEVE. WITH THAT IN MIND...THE SPC OUTLOOK
FOR MARGINAL LOOKS REASONABLE BEFORE THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTH OF THE
OHIO BORDER BY MIDNIGHT.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MID LEVEL WESTERLIES TAKE HOLD TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SLOWLY EXPANDING SOUTHEAST CONUS UPPER
RIDGING. THIS POSITIONING WILL EFFECTIVELY ANCHOR THE SURFACE
REFLECTION OF THE EXITING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY INVOF OF THE OH/MI
BORDER DURING THIS TIME. CONTINUED CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE FRONTAL
SLOPE AUGMENTED BY A COMBINATION OF BOTH LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSES
AND/OR REMNANT MCV ACTIVITY AND SOME RENEWED ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
SUPPORT AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. THIS PATTERN
PROVIDING THE USUAL CHALLENGES IN DEFINING BOTH POSSIBLE COVERAGE
AND TIMING...SOME DEPENDENCE ON HOW NOCTURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
BLOSSOM OVER THE MIDWEST TONIGHT EVENTUALLY SPILLS DOWNSTREAM.
GREATER POTENTIAL WILL LIE TOWARD THE SOUTH GIVEN THE FRONTAL
POSITIONING AND LESS INFLUENCE FROM DRIER AIR NOSING IN FROM THE
NORTH. RIBBON OF HIGHEST THETA-E WILL RESIDE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...BUT OVERALL MOISTURE QUALITY CERTAINLY REMAINS ADEQUATE
/PW HOLDING AT 1.3"/. LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FILLING ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER MI WILL SUSTAIN A MORE STABLE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
LOCALLY. THIS WILL KEEP INSTABILITY AT A MINIMUM...CONFINED ABOVE A
FIRM INVERSION NOW IN PLACE UP THROUGH 900 MB. THIS EASTERLY FLOW
COMBINED WITH A HIGHER DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER AND PROSPECTS FOR
SHOWERS TO DISRUPT THE HEATING CYCLE WILL CAP HIGHS IN THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S ON TUESDAY.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS SE MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SLOWER LOW LEVEL RESPONSE WILL LIKELY RETAIN A
LONGER RESIDENCE TIME OF EAST/SE FLOW LOCALLY...LEAVING THE FRONTAL
SLOPE DRAPED OVER OR JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE BULK OF THE
DAYTIME PERIOD. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HOLDING WITH JUST VERY LIMITED
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL OWING TO BOTH THE DEGREE OF STABILITY/UPPER
RIDGE POSITIONING AND LACK OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY/REMNANT CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS TO PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS. CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE A FEW
SHOWERS EMERGE AS WEAK ASCENT PERSISTS ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONTAL
SLAB /900-700 MB/...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON THE LOWER END AND WILL
MAINTAIN A LIMITED MENTION AT THIS TIME. THE UPWARD ADJUSTMENT IN
HEIGHTS AND GREATER PROSPECTS FOR SOME PEAKS OF SUN WILL NUDGE HIGHS
UP A CATEGORY OR TWO RELATIVE TO TUESDAY. HIGHS UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.
A PERIOD OF DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...DICTATED BY HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGHING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AND UPPER RIDGING EDGING TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A MORE NOTEWORTHY INCREASE IN THE TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHS MAKING A RUN TOWARD THE LOWER 80S BY
FRIDAY. WARM/DRY PROFILE WITH NEGLIGIBLE FORCING WILL MINIMIZE
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ON THURSDAY. SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT ON FRIDAY PER
00Z GFS BUT ECMWF PROVIDES A PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION RUNNING A LEAD
WAVE OVER THE RIDGE AND DRAGGING THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION BY PEAK HEATING. LOWER END CHANCE POPS REMAIN APPROPRIATE
TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL AND UNCERTAINTY FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME WINDOW.
MARINE...
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL MARINE AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY BY EVENING. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL THEN
DEVELOP FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....SF
UPDATE.......SF
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1200 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1117 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT THEN SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG A FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF LOWER
MICHIGAN. MOSTLY FAIR AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER LOW MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1117 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015
DROPPED POPS FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT IS THROUGH
AND RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH THE HRRR SHOWS THE RAIN STAYING SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CWA TODAY. THE FORECAST HASN`T
CHANGED MUCH AND SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA ATTM.
THIS ACTIVITY IS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS STILL OVER
WISCONSIN. THE ECHO PATTERN APPEARS AS A PSEUDO WARM FRONT AIDED BY
THE LLJ AIMED AT SW LWR MI. CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING OVER WISCONSIN
AND WE SHOULD SEE A GENERAL DECREASE IN ECHO INTENSITY TOWARD
MORNING WHEN THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. HIGHEST POPS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA AS THE FRONT MOVES OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA.
WE/LL KEEP SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE GRIDS TONIGHT AS THE ECMWF SHOWS A
WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN IOWA AND MOVING EAST.
THE GFS/NAM DON/T REALLY SHOW THE WAVE BUT DO SHOW SOME PCPN NEAR
THE BOUNDARY TUESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING PLAINS LOW. TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE SHORT
TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. AFTER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
NORTH...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WHILE
THERE IS SOME THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THE CHANCES SEEM
HIGHEST SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE STATE OF WASHINGTON AND
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY THIS MORNING DIGS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS BY LATE THIS WEEK. THIS BUILDS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THAT SHOULD FOR
THE MOST PART KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS DOWN AND INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE THAT
TRIES TO COME OUT OF THE WESTERN SYSTEM THURSDAY BUT THE ENERGY FOR
THAT SHOULD MOSTLY BE WEST OF MICHIGAN. DURING THE WEEKEND A MUCH
MORE POWERFUL PACIFIC SYSTEM BOOTS THE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY SUNDAY. IT IS IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME
FRAME OUR RISK FOR STRONGER STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE GREATEST.
MODEL AGREEMENT ON THIS IS REASONABLE BUT GIVEN HOW FAR OUT IN TIME
THIS IS... DEALS WILL SURELY CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEKEND.
MY BOTTOM LINE IS WARM AND MOSTLY DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MAINLY MVFR DURING
THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS TUESDAY AS LOW CLOUDS MOVE IN ALONG
WITH SOME SHOWERS AT OUR SOUTHERNMOST TERMINALS. SOME PATCHY FOG IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS TUESDAY AS WELL.
THERE IS NOT ENOUGH POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO WARRANT INCLUSION
IN ANY OF THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF ALL THE TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z
TUESDAY DUE MAINLY TO THE LACK OF SURFACE OR ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1137 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015
THE FOCUS WILL BE ON THE ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN
THE WEEK AHEAD.
WHILE THE PATTERN STILL LOOKS ACTIVE IT IS NOT PROMISING THAT WE
WILL SEE ANY WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN. BENEFICIAL AMOUNTS SHOULD
AVERAGE OUT TO A QUARTER INCH OR SO WITH EACH EPISODE THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK. THAT MAY LEAD TO DECENT TOTALS IN THE GRAND SCHEME BUT
NOTHING THAT PUTS RIVERS OVER THEIR BANKS.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES WHEN THE STALLING FRONT TO OUR SOUTH
RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. EVEN
THIS LOOKS TO COME IN A PIECE-WISE FASHION...ONCE LATE TONIGHT AND
AGAIN LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE AT RAIN
THEN ENTERS THE PICTURE LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH
AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. THIS IS WHEN WE COULD PICK UP OUR HIGHEST
TOTALS...PENDING THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WARM FRONT OUT AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM. SEVEN DAY TOTALS ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH TO AROUND
AN INCH AND A HALF KEEP CONCERNS LOW AS IT IS RECIEVED IN CHUNKS
WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY TIME BETWEEN. LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT DURATION AND COVERAGE IS NOT LOOKING
EXTENSIVE AT THIS POINT.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...OSTUNO
SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1137 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1117 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT THEN SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG A FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF LOWER
MICHIGAN. MOSTLY FAIR AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER LOW MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1117 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015
DROPPED POPS FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT IS THROUGH
AND RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH THE HRRR SHOWS THE RAIN STAYING SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CWA TODAY. THE FORECAST HASN`T
CHANGED MUCH AND SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA ATTM.
THIS ACTIVITY IS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS STILL OVER
WISCONSIN. THE ECHO PATTERN APPEARS AS A PSEUDO WARM FRONT AIDED BY
THE LLJ AIMED AT SW LWR MI. CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING OVER WISCONSIN
AND WE SHOULD SEE A GENERAL DECREASE IN ECHO INTENSITY TOWARD
MORNING WHEN THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. HIGHEST POPS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA AS THE FRONT MOVES OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA.
WE/LL KEEP SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE GRIDS TONIGHT AS THE ECMWF SHOWS A
WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN IOWA AND MOVING EAST.
THE GFS/NAM DON/T REALLY SHOW THE WAVE BUT DO SHOW SOME PCPN NEAR
THE BOUNDARY TUESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING PLAINS LOW. TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE SHORT
TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. AFTER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
NORTH...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WHILE
THERE IS SOME THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THE CHANCES SEEM
HIGHEST SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE STATE OF WASHINGTON AND
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY THIS MORNING DIGS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS BY LATE THIS WEEK. THIS BUILDS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THAT SHOULD FOR
THE MOST PART KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS DOWN AND INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE THAT
TRIES TO COME OUT OF THE WESTERN SYSTEM THURSDAY BUT THE ENERGY FOR
THAT SHOULD MOSTLY BE WEST OF MICHIGAN. DURING THE WEEKEND A MUCH
MORE POWERFUL PACIFIC SYSTEM BOOTS THE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY SUNDAY. IT IS IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME
FRAME OUR RISK FOR STRONGER STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE GREATEST.
MODEL AGREEMENT ON THIS IS REASONABLE BUT GIVEN HOW FAR OUT IN TIME
THIS IS... DEALS WILL SURELY CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEKEND.
MY BOTTOM LINE IS WARM AND MOSTLY DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015
ONCE THIS AREA OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE
AREA BY 12Z OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS AND 15Z OVER THE EASTERN
SECTIONS THE AREA OF MVFR CIGS CURRENTLY OVER WISCONSIN WILL
FOLLOW FOR TH 13Z TO 16Z TIME FRAME. THAT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA BY 16Z TO 18Z LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A NORTHWEST WIND
AROUND 10 KNOTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THIS EVENING SHOULD
SEE VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 06Z. THEN A WAVE ON THE
FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS BACK TO THE AREA WITH LOWERING CIG AND
VSBY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1137 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015
THE FOCUS WILL BE ON THE ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN
THE WEEK AHEAD.
WHILE THE PATTERN STILL LOOKS ACTIVE IT IS NOT PROMISING THAT WE
WILL SEE ANY WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN. BENEFICIAL AMOUNTS SHOULD
AVERAGE OUT TO A QUARTER INCH OR SO WITH EACH EPISODE THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK. THAT MAY LEAD TO DECENT TOTALS IN THE GRAND SCHEME BUT
NOTHING THAT PUTS RIVERS OVER THEIR BANKS.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES WHEN THE STALLING FRONT TO OUR SOUTH
RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. EVEN
THIS LOOKS TO COME IN A PIECE-WISE FASHION...ONCE LATE TONIGHT AND
AGAIN LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE AT RAIN
THEN ENTERS THE PICTURE LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH
AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. THIS IS WHEN WE COULD PICK UP OUR HIGHEST
TOTALS...PENDING THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WARM FRONT OUT AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM. SEVEN DAY TOTALS ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH TO AROUND
AN INCH AND A HALF KEEP CONCERNS LOW AS IT IS RECIEVED IN CHUNKS
WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY TIME BETWEEN. LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT DURATION AND COVERAGE IS NOT LOOKING
EXTENSIVE AT THIS POINT.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...OSTUNO
SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1118 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/SYNOPSIS
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1117 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT THEN SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG A FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF LOWER
MICHIGAN. MOSTLY FAIR AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER LOW MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1117 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015
DROPPED POPS FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT IS THROUGH
AND RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH THE HRRR SHOWS THE RAIN STAYING SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CWA TODAY. THE FORECAST HASN`T
CHANGED MUCH AND SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA ATTM.
THIS ACTIVITY IS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS STILL OVER
WISCONSIN. THE ECHO PATTERN APPEARS AS A PSEUDO WARM FRONT AIDED BY
THE LLJ AIMED AT SW LWR MI. CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING OVER WISCONSIN
AND WE SHOULD SEE A GENERAL DECREASE IN ECHO INTENSITY TOWARD
MORNING WHEN THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. HIGHEST POPS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA AS THE FRONT MOVES OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA.
WE/LL KEEP SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE GRIDS TONIGHT AS THE ECMWF SHOWS A
WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN IOWA AND MOVING EAST.
THE GFS/NAM DON/T REALLY SHOW THE WAVE BUT DO SHOW SOME PCPN NEAR
THE BOUNDARY TUESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING PLAINS LOW. TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE SHORT
TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. AFTER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
NORTH...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WHILE
THERE IS SOME THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THE CHANCES SEEM
HIGHEST SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE STATE OF WASHINGTON AND
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY THIS MORNING DIGS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS BY LATE THIS WEEK. THIS BUILDS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THAT SHOULD FOR
THE MOST PART KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS DOWN AND INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE THAT
TRIES TO COME OUT OF THE WESTERN SYSTEM THURSDAY BUT THE ENERGY FOR
THAT SHOULD MOSTLY BE WEST OF MICHIGAN. DURING THE WEEKEND A MUCH
MORE POWERFUL PACIFIC SYSTEM BOOTS THE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY SUNDAY. IT IS IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME
FRAME OUR RISK FOR STRONGER STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE GREATEST.
MODEL AGREEMENT ON THIS IS REASONABLE BUT GIVEN HOW FAR OUT IN TIME
THIS IS... DEALS WILL SURELY CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEKEND.
MY BOTTOM LINE IS WARM AND MOSTLY DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015
ONCE THIS AREA OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE
AREA BY 12Z OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS AND 15Z OVER THE EASTERN
SECTIONS THE AREA OF MVFR CIGS CURRENTLY OVER WISCONSIN WILL
FOLLOW FOR TH 13Z TO 16Z TIME FRAME. THAT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA BY 16Z TO 18Z LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A NORTHWEST WIND
AROUND 10 KNOTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THIS EVENING SHOULD
SEE VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 06Z. THEN A WAVE ON THE
FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS BACK TO THE AREA WITH LOWERING CIG AND
VSBY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1136 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015
RIVERS ARE RUNNING WELL WITHIN BANKS AND REMAIN STEADY...IF NOT
FALLING EVER-SO-SLIGHTLY. THOUGH FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME...THE PATTERN BECOMES ACTIVE OVER THE COURSE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK AND WE MAY SEE WITHIN BANK RISES.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOPED AND PROGRESS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE PRECIPITATION WILL STALL NEAR THE SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
BORDER WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME OF THE HIGHER TOTALS ALIGNING ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-94. THIS FRONT THEN RETURNS NORTH NEAR MIDWEEK AND
PROVIDES ANOTHER DECENT SHOT AT PRECIPITATION FOR CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN DURING THAT TIME FRAME. YET ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER
IS POISED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THE MAIN IMPACTS WOULD LIKELY BE MINOR AND NOT REALLY FELT UNTIL WE
GET INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. LOCATIONS THAT ARE ALREADY RAIN SOAKED
AND RECEIVE ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COULD SEE
MINOR PONDING ON ROADWAYS...OR LOW LYING AREAS THAT ARE TYPICALLY
AFFECTED BY HEAVIER RAIN. AN ADDITIONAL NOTE IS THAT WE ARE DRY NOW
AND GREEN-UP IS OCCURRING IN MANY LOCATIONS. THIS WILL DEFINITELY
HELP IN TAKING UP A LOT OF THE MOISTURE THAT FALLS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...OSTUNO
SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1027 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015
.UPDATE...
MOISTURE AXIS (850-700 MB THETA-E RIDGE) WORKING THROUGH SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...GENERATING LINE OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
THUNDER. AMOUNT OF RECOVERY BEHIND THIS BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL BE
KEY THIS AFTERNOON...AS SURFACE COLD FRONT ADVANCES SOUTH THROUGH
THE CWA. STILL...SURFACE DEW PTS WILL LIKELY BE HARD PRESSED TO
REACH/EXCEED 60 DEGREES...AND CAPES WILL LIKELY BUILD TO AROUND
1000 J/KG WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S. PLANNING ON CARRYING
SCATTERED/CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE LACK OF
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...AS HRRR ALSO SHOWING LITTLE ACTIVITY. COULD
SEE A SCENARIO WHERE COOLER WATERS OF LAKE HURON PROVIDE LITTLE
BOOST TO THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE THUMB REGION...AND
WOULD NOT RULE OUT THE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALLOWING AN ISOLATED
CELL TO APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS...AS FREEZING LEVELS ARE
IDEAL...AND WIND FIELDS ARE MODERATE (25 TO 30 KNOTS OF 0-5KM BULK
SHEAR). BUT AGAIN...THAT IS ASSUMING WE SUFFICIENTALY RECOVER...IF
CLOUDS REMAIN LOCKED IN...THEN FORGET IT.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 708 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015
A WEAKENING PATTERN OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THE REST OF THE WAY THROUGH
SE MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING AS MOISTURE BUILDS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT IS ON A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SCHEDULE TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WILL BECOME THE
FOCUS FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
SOUTH OF MBS AND FNT. INTERVALS OF MVFR RESTRICTION ARE LIKELY WITH
THE SHOWERS BUT THUNDERSTORM TIMING AND COVERAGE NEEDS FURTHER
REFINEMENT BEFORE INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST AT ANY ONE TERMINAL.
NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW POST FRONT WILL VEER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
DURING THE EVENING...AND THEN TOWARD THE EAST OVERNIGHT. VFR IS
EXPECTED AS DRY AND COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE DTW AREA AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE OHIO
BORDER THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
FOR DTW...VFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH A WEAKENING PATTERN OF SHOWERS
DURING THE MORNING. A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION WILL THEN PRECEDE A
COLD FRONT THAT IS ON A SLIGHTLY LATER SCHEDULE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
DTW AREA DURING LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
BETTER WINDOW FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL COMPARED TO POINTS NORTH
BUT TIMING AND COVERAGE STILL NEED REFINEMENT BEFORE STORMS ARE
ADDED TO THE FORECAST. THE FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE
OHIO BORDER WHICH WILL KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* MEDIUM FOR CEILING AOB 5000FT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 352 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015
SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT
AFTER AN OUTSTANDING WEEKEND OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER...AN ACTIVE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN WILL GET UNDERWAY TO START THE WEEK. BEGINNING
THIS MORNING...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MARK THE LEADING
EDGE OF INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVANCING THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN. MORNING COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST FROM FLINT TO THE TRI
CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB BUT ALL AREAS WILL HAVE AT LEAST A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AS THE MOISTURE SURGE PROGRESSES THROUGH THE REGION. THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL THEN TAKE OVER DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THAT IS WHEN THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL SHIFT GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE
STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON RECOVERY OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY THAT WILL
BE LIMITED BY MORNING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.
RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
EXPANDING IN COVERAGE OVER SW LOWER MICHIGAN SINCE MIDNIGHT. THIS IS
OCCURRING ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WITH A
MODESTLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET...BOTH OF WHICH ARE GENERATING A
TYPICAL PATTERN OF NOCTURNAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THE 00Z MODELS
HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THIS SCENARIO JUDGING BY THETA-E AND
WIND FIELDS IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER. PREFER THOSE THAT ARE MORE
BULLISH ON THE MAINTENANCE OF MORNING QPF OVER SE MICHIGAN NOW THAT
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS PROVING ADEQUATE TO GENERATE CONVECTION. FOR
NOW...PLAN TO NUDGE MORNING POPS UP INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE IN
THE TRI CITIES AND INTO HIGH LIKELY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE U.S. 23
CORRIDOR TO ACCOUNT FOR SOUTHWARD EXPANSION ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT.
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT INDICATING THE COLD FRONT IS ON PACE
TO BE THROUGH THE TRI CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT IT WILL TAKE UNTIL THEN FOR BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY TO OCCUR ON THE HEELS OF THE MORNING SHOWERS AND CONVECTIVE
CLOUD DEBRIS. THIS SUGGESTS LEANING THE FORECAST TOWARD THE LOWER
END OF THE MODEL RANGE FOR SURFACE BASED CAPE. THE NAM CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE CAPE REACHING 1500-1800 J/KG SUBJECT TO SURFACE DEWPOINT
RISING INTO THE LOWER 60S AS SURFACE TEMPERATURE RECOVERS INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S. THE RAP AND GFS ALSO INDICATE SURFACE DEWPOINT
REACHING THE LOWER 60S BUT PRODUCE CAPE CLOSER TO 1000 J/KG WITH
MAIN DIFFERENCE BEING SHALLOWER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS IS
GENERALLY PREFERRED CONSIDERING THE WARM LARGE SCALE UPPER AIR
PATTERN...ESPECIALLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE ONE WILD CARD TO
MONITOR IS THE HINT OF MCV DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MIDWEST THAT COULD
HELP A FEW STORMS OVERACHIEVE. WITH THAT IN MIND...THE SPC OUTLOOK
FOR MARGINAL LOOKS REASONABLE BEFORE THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTH OF THE
OHIO BORDER BY MIDNIGHT.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MID LEVEL WESTERLIES TAKE HOLD TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SLOWLY EXPANDING SOUTHEAST CONUS UPPER
RIDGING. THIS POSITIONING WILL EFFECTIVELY ANCHOR THE SURFACE
REFLECTION OF THE EXITING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY INVOF OF THE OH/MI
BORDER DURING THIS TIME. CONTINUED CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE FRONTAL
SLOPE AUGMENTED BY A COMBINATION OF BOTH LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSES
AND/OR REMNANT MCV ACTIVITY AND SOME RENEWED ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
SUPPORT AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. THIS PATTERN
PROVIDING THE USUAL CHALLENGES IN DEFINING BOTH POSSIBLE COVERAGE
AND TIMING...SOME DEPENDENCE ON HOW NOCTURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
BLOSSOM OVER THE MIDWEST TONIGHT EVENTUALLY SPILLS DOWNSTREAM.
GREATER POTENTIAL WILL LIE TOWARD THE SOUTH GIVEN THE FRONTAL
POSITIONING AND LESS INFLUENCE FROM DRIER AIR NOSING IN FROM THE
NORTH. RIBBON OF HIGHEST THETA-E WILL RESIDE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...BUT OVERALL MOISTURE QUALITY CERTAINLY REMAINS ADEQUATE
/PW HOLDING AT 1.3"/. LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FILLING ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER MI WILL SUSTAIN A MORE STABLE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
LOCALLY. THIS WILL KEEP INSTABILITY AT A MINIMUM...CONFINED ABOVE A
FIRM INVERSION NOW IN PLACE UP THROUGH 900 MB. THIS EASTERLY FLOW
COMBINED WITH A HIGHER DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER AND PROSPECTS FOR
SHOWERS TO DISRUPT THE HEATING CYCLE WILL CAP HIGHS IN THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S ON TUESDAY.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS SE MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SLOWER LOW LEVEL RESPONSE WILL LIKELY RETAIN A
LONGER RESIDENCE TIME OF EAST/SE FLOW LOCALLY...LEAVING THE FRONTAL
SLOPE DRAPED OVER OR JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE BULK OF THE
DAYTIME PERIOD. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HOLDING WITH JUST VERY LIMITED
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL OWING TO BOTH THE DEGREE OF STABILITY/UPPER
RIDGE POSITIONING AND LACK OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY/REMNANT CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS TO PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS. CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE A FEW
SHOWERS EMERGE AS WEAK ASCENT PERSISTS ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONTAL
SLAB /900-700 MB/...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON THE LOWER END AND WILL
MAINTAIN A LIMITED MENTION AT THIS TIME. THE UPWARD ADJUSTMENT IN
HEIGHTS AND GREATER PROSPECTS FOR SOME PEAKS OF SUN WILL NUDGE HIGHS
UP A CATEGORY OR TWO RELATIVE TO TUESDAY. HIGHS UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.
A PERIOD OF DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...DICTATED BY HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGHING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AND UPPER RIDGING EDGING TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A MORE NOTEWORTHY INCREASE IN THE TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHS MAKING A RUN TOWARD THE LOWER 80S BY
FRIDAY. WARM/DRY PROFILE WITH NEGLIGIBLE FORCING WILL MINIMIZE
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ON THURSDAY. SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT ON FRIDAY PER
00Z GFS BUT ECMWF PROVIDES A PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION RUNNING A LEAD
WAVE OVER THE RIDGE AND DRAGGING THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION BY PEAK HEATING. LOWER END CHANCE POPS REMAIN APPROPRIATE
TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL AND UNCERTAINTY FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME WINDOW.
MARINE...
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL MARINE AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY BY EVENING. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL THEN
DEVELOP FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......SF
AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
739 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD SHALLOW TROUGH ACROSS
SRN CANADA INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING
NE THROUGH NRN ONTARIO WAS DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH ERN UPPER
MICHIGAN. THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND 700-300 MB QVECTOR
CONV AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH HAD MOVED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AIR WAS QUICKLY MOVING INTO UPPER
MICHIGAN...PER 00Z KINL SOUNDING...WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE
30S OVER THE NORTH AND WEST. IR LOOP SHOWED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
LINGERING OVER MOST OF UPPER MICHIGAN WITH CLEARING ONLY OVER THE
FAR WEST.
TODAY...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES...EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO DEPART EARLY LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WITH ONLY FEW/SCT CU DEVELOPING. MIXING TO AROUND 5K FEET INLAND
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 5C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. THE WEAK NRLY WINDS OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP READINGS IN
THE 50S CLOSER TO THE SHORE. WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 20S...INLAND RH VALUES WILL FALL OFF TO 20 TO 25
PCT.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY MON NIGHT
THROUGH TUE. WITH PWATS DROPPING DOWN BELOW.25 INCH AND LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED UNDER THE SFC HIGH...MIN TEMPS NEAR FREEZING ARE EXPECTED
AT THE TYPICAL INLAND COLD LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015
TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI AHEAD
OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN SUNNY
SKIES...THOUGH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY FILTER IN THE FROM SE DURING
THE AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS HAVE TRENDED DOWN A
LITTLE BIT ON THE QPF FOR LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED ALONG AN 850 HPA
WARM FRONT/300-310K ISENTROPIC LIFT. WITH STOUT MID-LEVEL RIDGING
MOVING OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND OVERALL DEEPER MOISTURE AND LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINING CONFINED TO THE WESTERN
CWA...KEPT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEST HALF. PRECIP CHANCES
DIMINISH TO LOW-END SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE WEST WED NIGHT AS THE
LOW-LEVEL WAA EXITS TO THE NE AND MID-LEVEL FORCING WELL SW OF THE
REGION STRUGGLES TO WORK INTO THE RIDGE.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DEEP TROUGHING MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC NW
LATE TODAY WILL HELP KICK A SLOW-MOVING MID-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW ACROSS
THE SW STATES BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL CONSOLIDATE A BROAD SFC LOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES ON WED. THE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK NNE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEFORE BEGINNING TO TURN EASTWARD OVER
WESTERN ONTARIO. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW WELL THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
CAN ERODE THE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES
BY THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE OVERALL
PATTERN...WITH THE TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT CLEARING THE CWA BY
FRIDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...THE CANADIAN GEM IS QUITE SLOW...SENDING
THE TROUGH WELL NORTH AND WASHING OUT THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA
ON SATURDAY. THE GFS FALLS BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BUT LEANS
TOWARD THE ECMWF. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MID-LEVEL ENERGY TO CHIP
AWAY AT THE RIDGE...BUT LIKELY NOT AS FAST AS IS PROGGED BY THE
ECMWF. HAVE THEREFORE CHOSEN TO FOLLOW A SOLUTION CLOSE TO THAT OF
THE GFS.
WITH ALL THAT TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PUSH INTO THE WESTERN CWA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AND GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD AS FORCING FROM THE MID-
LEVEL WAVE WORKS OVER THE CWA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
ENDS CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST FRIDAY EVENING.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AFTER A LULL IN PRECIP ON SATURDAY...A LARGE
PORTION OF THE MAIN WESTERN TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA
FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL 3 TAF SITES THIS FCST PERIOD WITH DRY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THERE MAY BE
SOME GUSTY WINDS AFTER SUNRISE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON UNDER THE
SHARPER PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE INCOMING HIGH AND DEPARTING COLD
FRONT...BUT WINDS SHOULD TREND LIGHTER TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE WEAKER GRADIENT AS WELL AS LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015
FOG IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THIS MORNING OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR BUT WILL DISSIPATE AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIRS BUILDS
OVER THE UPPER LAKES FROM THE W-NW TODAY. EXPECT THE HIGH TO DRIFT
INTO SE ONTARIO LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AS ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO NW ONTARIO...AD A LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
PLAINS. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY WHILE THE ONTARIO HIGH DRIFTS ACROSS HUDSON BAY INTO QUEBEC.
THE LOW WILL DRAG A TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM
THU INTO THU NIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20
KNOTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
708 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015
.AVIATION...
A WEAKENING PATTERN OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THE REST OF THE WAY THROUGH
SE MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING AS MOISTURE BUILDS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT IS ON A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SCHEDULE TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WILL BECOME THE
FOCUS FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
SOUTH OF MBS AND FNT. INTERVALS OF MVFR RESTRICTION ARE LIKELY WITH
THE SHOWERS BUT THUNDERSTORM TIMING AND COVERAGE NEEDS FURTHER
REFINEMENT BEFORE INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST AT ANY ONE TERMINAL.
NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW POST FRONT WILL VEER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
DURING THE EVENING...AND THEN TOWARD THE EAST OVERNIGHT. VFR IS
EXPECTED AS DRY AND COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE DTW AREA AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE OHIO
BORDER THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
FOR DTW...VFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH A WEAKENING PATTERN OF SHOWERS
DURING THE MORNING. A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION WILL THEN PRECEDE A
COLD FRONT THAT IS ON A SLIGHTLY LATER SCHEDULE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
DTW AREA DURING LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
BETTER WINDOW FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL COMPARED TO POINTS NORTH
BUT TIMING AND COVERAGE STILL NEED REFINEMENT BEFORE STORMS ARE
ADDED TO THE FORECAST. THE FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE
OHIO BORDER WHICH WILL KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* MEDIUM FOR CEILING AOB 5000FT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 352 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015
SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT
AFTER AN OUTSTANDING WEEKEND OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER...AN ACTIVE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN WILL GET UNDERWAY TO START THE WEEK. BEGINNING
THIS MORNING...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MARK THE LEADING
EDGE OF INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVANCING THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN. MORNING COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST FROM FLINT TO THE TRI
CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB BUT ALL AREAS WILL HAVE AT LEAST A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AS THE MOISTURE SURGE PROGRESSES THROUGH THE REGION. THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL THEN TAKE OVER DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THAT IS WHEN THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL SHIFT GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE
STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON RECOVERY OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY THAT WILL
BE LIMITED BY MORNING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.
RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
EXPANDING IN COVERAGE OVER SW LOWER MICHIGAN SINCE MIDNIGHT. THIS IS
OCCURRING ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WITH A
MODESTLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET...BOTH OF WHICH ARE GENERATING A
TYPICAL PATTERN OF NOCTURNAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THE 00Z MODELS
HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THIS SCENARIO JUDGING BY THETA-E AND
WIND FIELDS IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER. PREFER THOSE THAT ARE MORE
BULLISH ON THE MAINTENANCE OF MORNING QPF OVER SE MICHIGAN NOW THAT
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS PROVING ADEQUATE TO GENERATE CONVECTION. FOR
NOW...PLAN TO NUDGE MORNING POPS UP INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE IN
THE TRI CITIES AND INTO HIGH LIKELY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE U.S. 23
CORRIDOR TO ACCOUNT FOR SOUTHWARD EXPANSION ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT.
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT INDICATING THE COLD FRONT IS ON PACE
TO BE THROUGH THE TRI CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT IT WILL TAKE UNTIL THEN FOR BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY TO OCCUR ON THE HEELS OF THE MORNING SHOWERS AND CONVECTIVE
CLOUD DEBRIS. THIS SUGGESTS LEANING THE FORECAST TOWARD THE LOWER
END OF THE MODEL RANGE FOR SURFACE BASED CAPE. THE NAM CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE CAPE REACHING 1500-1800 J/KG SUBJECT TO SURFACE DEWPOINT
RISING INTO THE LOWER 60S AS SURFACE TEMPERATURE RECOVERS INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S. THE RAP AND GFS ALSO INDICATE SURFACE DEWPOINT
REACHING THE LOWER 60S BUT PRODUCE CAPE CLOSER TO 1000 J/KG WITH
MAIN DIFFERENCE BEING SHALLOWER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS IS
GENERALLY PREFERRED CONSIDERING THE WARM LARGE SCALE UPPER AIR
PATTERN...ESPECIALLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE ONE WILD CARD TO
MONITOR IS THE HINT OF MCV DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MIDWEST THAT COULD
HELP A FEW STORMS OVERACHIEVE. WITH THAT IN MIND...THE SPC OUTLOOK
FOR MARGINAL LOOKS REASONABLE BEFORE THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTH OF THE
OHIO BORDER BY MIDNIGHT.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MID LEVEL WESTERLIES TAKE HOLD TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SLOWLY EXPANDING SOUTHEAST CONUS UPPER
RIDGING. THIS POSITIONING WILL EFFECTIVELY ANCHOR THE SURFACE
REFLECTION OF THE EXITING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY INVOF OF THE OH/MI
BORDER DURING THIS TIME. CONTINUED CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE FRONTAL
SLOPE AUGMENTED BY A COMBINATION OF BOTH LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSES
AND/OR REMNANT MCV ACTIVITY AND SOME RENEWED ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
SUPPORT AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. THIS PATTERN
PROVIDING THE USUAL CHALLENGES IN DEFINING BOTH POSSIBLE COVERAGE
AND TIMING...SOME DEPENDENCE ON HOW NOCTURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
BLOSSOM OVER THE MIDWEST TONIGHT EVENTUALLY SPILLS DOWNSTREAM.
GREATER POTENTIAL WILL LIE TOWARD THE SOUTH GIVEN THE FRONTAL
POSITIONING AND LESS INFLUENCE FROM DRIER AIR NOSING IN FROM THE
NORTH. RIBBON OF HIGHEST THETA-E WILL RESIDE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...BUT OVERALL MOISTURE QUALITY CERTAINLY REMAINS ADEQUATE
/PW HOLDING AT 1.3"/. LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FILLING ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER MI WILL SUSTAIN A MORE STABLE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
LOCALLY. THIS WILL KEEP INSTABILITY AT A MINIMUM...CONFINED ABOVE A
FIRM INVERSION NOW IN PLACE UP THROUGH 900 MB. THIS EASTERLY FLOW
COMBINED WITH A HIGHER DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER AND PROSPECTS FOR
SHOWERS TO DISRUPT THE HEATING CYCLE WILL CAP HIGHS IN THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S ON TUESDAY.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS SE MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SLOWER LOW LEVEL RESPONSE WILL LIKELY RETAIN A
LONGER RESIDENCE TIME OF EAST/SE FLOW LOCALLY...LEAVING THE FRONTAL
SLOPE DRAPED OVER OR JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE BULK OF THE
DAYTIME PERIOD. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HOLDING WITH JUST VERY LIMITED
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL OWING TO BOTH THE DEGREE OF STABILITY/UPPER
RIDGE POSITIONING AND LACK OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY/REMNANT CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS TO PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS. CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE A FEW
SHOWERS EMERGE AS WEAK ASCENT PERSISTS ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONTAL
SLAB /900-700 MB/...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON THE LOWER END AND WILL
MAINTAIN A LIMITED MENTION AT THIS TIME. THE UPWARD ADJUSTMENT IN
HEIGHTS AND GREATER PROSPECTS FOR SOME PEAKS OF SUN WILL NUDGE HIGHS
UP A CATEGORY OR TWO RELATIVE TO TUESDAY. HIGHS UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.
A PERIOD OF DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...DICTATED BY HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGHING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AND UPPER RIDGING EDGING TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A MORE NOTEWORTHY INCREASE IN THE TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHS MAKING A RUN TOWARD THE LOWER 80S BY
FRIDAY. WARM/DRY PROFILE WITH NEGLIGIBLE FORCING WILL MINIMIZE
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ON THURSDAY. SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT ON FRIDAY PER
00Z GFS BUT ECMWF PROVIDES A PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION RUNNING A LEAD
WAVE OVER THE RIDGE AND DRAGGING THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION BY PEAK HEATING. LOWER END CHANCE POPS REMAIN APPROPRIATE
TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL AND UNCERTAINTY FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME WINDOW.
MARINE...
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL MARINE AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY BY EVENING. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL THEN
DEVELOP FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
452 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD SHALLOW TROUGH ACROSS
SRN CANADA INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING
NE THROUGH NRN ONTARIO WAS DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH ERN UPPER
MICHIGAN. THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND 700-300 MB QVECTOR
CONV AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH HAD MOVED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AIR WAS QUICKLY MOVING INTO UPPER
MICHIGAN...PER 00Z KINL SOUNDING...WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE
30S OVER THE NORTH AND WEST. IR LOOP SHOWED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
LINGERING OVER MOST OF UPPER MICHIGAN WITH CLEARING ONLY OVER THE
FAR WEST.
TODAY...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES...EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO DEPART EARLY LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WITH ONLY FEW/SCT CU DEVELOPING. MIXING TO AROUND 5K FEET INLAND
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 5C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. THE WEAK NRLY WINDS OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP READINGS IN
THE 50S CLOSER TO THE SHORE. WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 20S...INLAND RH VALUES WILL FALL OFF TO 20 TO 25
PCT.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY MON NIGHT
THROUGH TUE. WITH PWATS DROPPING DOWN BELOW.25 INCH AND LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED UNDER THE SFC HIGH...MIN TEMPS NEAR FREEZING ARE EXPECTED
AT THE TYPICAL INLAND COLD LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015
TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI AHEAD
OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN SUNNY
SKIES...THOUGH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY FILTER IN THE FROM SE DURING
THE AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS HAVE TRENDED DOWN A
LITTLE BIT ON THE QPF FOR LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED ALONG AN 850 HPA
WARM FRONT/300-310K ISENTROPIC LIFT. WITH STOUT MID-LEVEL RIDGING
MOVING OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND OVERALL DEEPER MOISTURE AND LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINING CONFINED TO THE WESTERN
CWA...KEPT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEST HALF. PRECIP CHANCES
DIMINISH TO LOW-END SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE WEST WED NIGHT AS THE
LOW-LEVEL WAA EXITS TO THE NE AND MID-LEVEL FORCING WELL SW OF THE
REGION STRUGGLES TO WORK INTO THE RIDGE.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DEEP TROUGHING MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC NW
LATE TODAY WILL HELP KICK A SLOW-MOVING MID-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW ACROSS
THE SW STATES BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL CONSOLIDATE A BROAD SFC LOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES ON WED. THE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK NNE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEFORE BEGINNING TO TURN EASTWARD OVER
WESTERN ONTARIO. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW WELL THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
CAN ERODE THE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES
BY THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE OVERALL
PATTERN...WITH THE TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT CLEARING THE CWA BY
FRIDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...THE CANADIAN GEM IS QUITE SLOW...SENDING
THE TROUGH WELL NORTH AND WASHING OUT THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA
ON SATURDAY. THE GFS FALLS BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BUT LEANS
TOWARD THE ECMWF. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MID-LEVEL ENERGY TO CHIP
AWAY AT THE RIDGE...BUT LIKELY NOT AS FAST AS IS PROGGED BY THE
ECMWF. HAVE THEREFORE CHOSEN TO FOLLOW A SOLUTION CLOSE TO THAT OF
THE GFS.
WITH ALL THAT TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PUSH INTO THE WESTERN CWA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AND GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD AS FORCING FROM THE MID-
LEVEL WAVE WORKS OVER THE CWA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
ENDS CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST FRIDAY EVENING.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AFTER A LULL IN PRECIP ON SATURDAY...A LARGE
PORTION OF THE MAIN WESTERN TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA
FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 151 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL 3 TAF SITES THIS FCST PERIOD WITH DRY
HI PRES BLDG INTO THE UPR LKS. THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AFTER
SUNRISE INTO THE EARLY AFTN UNDER THE SHARPER PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE
INCOMING HI AND DEPARTING COLD FNT...BUT WINDS SHOULD TREND LIGHTER
TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE WEAKER GRADIENT AS
WELL AS LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015
FOG IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THIS MORNING OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR BUT WILL DISSIPATE AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIRS BUILDS
OVER THE UPPER LAKES FROM THE W-NW TODAY. EXPECT THE HIGH TO DRIFT
INTO SE ONTARIO LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AS ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO NW ONTARIO...AD A LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
PLAINS. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY WHILE THE ONTARIO HIGH DRIFTS ACROSS HUDSON BAY INTO QUEBEC.
THE LOW WILL DRAG A TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM
THU INTO THU NIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20
KNOTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
352 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015
.SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT
AFTER AN OUTSTANDING WEEKEND OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER...AN ACTIVE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN WILL GET UNDERWAY TO START THE WEEK. BEGINNING
THIS MORNING...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MARK THE LEADING
EDGE OF INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVANCING THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN. MORNING COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST FROM FLINT TO THE TRI
CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB BUT ALL AREAS WILL HAVE AT LEAST A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AS THE MOISTURE SURGE PROGRESSES THROUGH THE REGION. THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL THEN TAKE OVER DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THAT IS WHEN THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL SHIFT GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE
STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON RECOVERY OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY THAT WILL
BE LIMITED BY MORNING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.
RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
EXPANDING IN COVERAGE OVER SW LOWER MICHIGAN SINCE MIDNIGHT. THIS IS
OCCURRING ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WITH A
MODESTLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET...BOTH OF WHICH ARE GENERATING A
TYPICAL PATTERN OF NOCTURNAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THE 00Z MODELS
HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THIS SCENARIO JUDGING BY THETA-E AND
WIND FIELDS IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER. PREFER THOSE THAT ARE MORE
BULLISH ON THE MAINTENANCE OF MORNING QPF OVER SE MICHIGAN NOW THAT
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS PROVING ADEQUATE TO GENERATE CONVECTION. FOR
NOW...PLAN TO NUDGE MORNING POPS UP INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE IN
THE TRI CITIES AND INTO HIGH LIKELY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE U.S. 23
CORRIDOR TO ACCOUNT FOR SOUTHWARD EXPANSION ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT.
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT INDICATING THE COLD FRONT IS ON PACE
TO BE THROUGH THE TRI CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT IT WILL TAKE UNTIL THEN FOR BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY TO OCCUR ON THE HEELS OF THE MORNING SHOWERS AND CONVECTIVE
CLOUD DEBRIS. THIS SUGGESTS LEANING THE FORECAST TOWARD THE LOWER
END OF THE MODEL RANGE FOR SURFACE BASED CAPE. THE NAM CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE CAPE REACHING 1500-1800 J/KG SUBJECT TO SURFACE DEWPOINT
RISING INTO THE LOWER 60S AS SURFACE TEMPERATURE RECOVERS INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S. THE RAP AND GFS ALSO INDICATE SURFACE DEWPOINT
REACHING THE LOWER 60S BUT PRODUCE CAPE CLOSER TO 1000 J/KG WITH
MAIN DIFFERENCE BEING SHALLOWER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS IS
GENERALLY PREFERRED CONSIDERING THE WARM LARGE SCALE UPPER AIR
PATTERN...ESPECIALLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE ONE WILD CARD TO
MONITOR IS THE HINT OF MCV DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MIDWEST THAT COULD
HELP A FEW STORMS OVERACHIEVE. WITH THAT IN MIND...THE SPC OUTLOOK
FOR MARGINAL LOOKS REASONABLE BEFORE THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTH OF THE
OHIO BORDER BY MIDNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MID LEVEL WESTERLIES TAKE HOLD TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SLOWLY EXPANDING SOUTHEAST CONUS UPPER
RIDGING. THIS POSITIONING WILL EFFECTIVELY ANCHOR THE SURFACE
REFLECTION OF THE EXITING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY INVOF OF THE OH/MI
BORDER DURING THIS TIME. CONTINUED CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE FRONTAL
SLOPE AUGMENTED BY A COMBINATION OF BOTH LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSES
AND/OR REMNANT MCV ACTIVITY AND SOME RENEWED ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
SUPPORT AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. THIS PATTERN
PROVIDING THE USUAL CHALLENGES IN DEFINING BOTH POSSIBLE COVERAGE
AND TIMING...SOME DEPENDENCE ON HOW NOCTURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
BLOSSOM OVER THE MIDWEST TONIGHT EVENTUALLY SPILLS DOWNSTREAM.
GREATER POTENTIAL WILL LIE TOWARD THE SOUTH GIVEN THE FRONTAL
POSITIONING AND LESS INFLUENCE FROM DRIER AIR NOSING IN FROM THE
NORTH. RIBBON OF HIGHEST THETA-E WILL RESIDE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...BUT OVERALL MOISTURE QUALITY CERTAINLY REMAINS ADEQUATE
/PW HOLDING AT 1.3"/. LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FILLING ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER MI WILL SUSTAIN A MORE STABLE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
LOCALLY. THIS WILL KEEP INSTABILITY AT A MINIMUM...CONFINED ABOVE A
FIRM INVERSION NOW IN PLACE UP THROUGH 900 MB. THIS EASTERLY FLOW
COMBINED WITH A HIGHER DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER AND PROSPECTS FOR
SHOWERS TO DISRUPT THE HEATING CYCLE WILL CAP HIGHS IN THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S ON TUESDAY.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS SE MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SLOWER LOW LEVEL RESPONSE WILL LIKELY RETAIN A
LONGER RESIDENCE TIME OF EAST/SE FLOW LOCALLY...LEAVING THE FRONTAL
SLOPE DRAPED OVER OR JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE BULK OF THE
DAYTIME PERIOD. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HOLDING WITH JUST VERY LIMITED
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL OWING TO BOTH THE DEGREE OF STABILITY/UPPER
RIDGE POSITIONING AND LACK OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY/REMNANT CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS TO PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS. CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE A FEW
SHOWERS EMERGE AS WEAK ASCENT PERSISTS ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONTAL
SLAB /900-700 MB/...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON THE LOWER END AND WILL
MAINTAIN A LIMITED MENTION AT THIS TIME. THE UPWARD ADJUSTMENT IN
HEIGHTS AND GREATER PROSPECTS FOR SOME PEAKS OF SUN WILL NUDGE HIGHS
UP A CATEGORY OR TWO RELATIVE TO TUESDAY. HIGHS UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.
A PERIOD OF DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...DICTATED BY HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGHING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AND UPPER RIDGING EDGING TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A MORE NOTEWORTHY INCREASE IN THE TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHS MAKING A RUN TOWARD THE LOWER 80S BY
FRIDAY. WARM/DRY PROFILE WITH NEGLIGIBLE FORCING WILL MINIMIZE
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ON THURSDAY. SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT ON FRIDAY PER
00Z GFS BUT ECMWF PROVIDES A PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION RUNNING A LEAD
WAVE OVER THE RIDGE AND DRAGGING THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION BY PEAK HEATING. LOWER END CHANCE POPS REMAIN APPROPRIATE
TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL AND UNCERTAINTY FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME WINDOW.
&&
.MARINE...
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL MARINE AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY BY EVENING. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL THEN
DEVELOP FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1159 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL WORK INTO KMBS/KFNT LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY FADE IN THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MINIMUM
PORTION OF THE DAY AS IT OUTRUNS ANY UPPER SUPPORT. ADDITIONAL SHRAS
AND PERHAPS A FEW TSRAS WILL REDEVELOP BY MIDDAY INTO LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT ITSELF PROGRESSES INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL OCCUR FIRST KMBS/KFNT AND THEN SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AREA 20Z-22Z AND BEYOND UNTIL THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE
TAF SITES IN THE EVENING AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WANE.
FOR DTW...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AREA LATE IN THE FORECAST AFTER
00Z MONDAY...BUT PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL BRING SCT SHRAS TO THE TAF
SITE BY AFTERNOON. WHILE A TSRA OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW GIVEN WEAK/MODEST INSTABILITY. VFR CIGS WILL GIVE WAY TO
OCCASIONAL MVFR WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BUT RETURN TO VFR AFTER 02Z AS
FROPA OCCURS AND THE FRONT THEN SINKS SOUTH OF THE AREA.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* MEDIUM FOR CIGS AOB 5000FT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
* LOW FOR TSRAS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR
AVIATION.....DG
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1047 PM CDT Tue May 5 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 409 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015
Active pattern will continue through the rest of the week, and into
the weekend. Perhaps the quietest of the next several days will be
this afternoon. Warm and muggy conditions persist across the area
today, with temperatures in the middle 70s to lower 80s, with
dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. RAP soundings indicate that
the atmosphere is uncapped, which has allowed for the CU field to
form across the area. However the lack of any appreciable forcing
has prevented much in the way of thunderstorm development. That
being said, with the uncapped environment there is enough weak
forcing to get a few storms to form across central Missouri. These
storms will generally be pretty scattered in nature across the area,
but coverage will not be very great. Any shower will likely be
rather brief in nature. No strong or severe weather is anticipated
with any of these storms outside of a wind gust or two near the
storm. These diurnally driven showers will likely fall apart and
diminish around sunset.
Over the next several days several shortwave troughs will be rolling
through the area, bringing several chances of rain. The first
appreciable chance for rain will be during the morning to early
afternoon hours on Wednesday as a vorticity lobe will swing through
the area, bringing some scattered convection. While there will be
some instability in the area, on the order of 500 to 1000 J/kg the
amount of instability will be somewhat meager. Deep layer shear will
also be on the low side, with 20 to 30 kts of 0-6 km shear. So given
those particular CAPE/shear parameters it doesn`t look like severe
weather will be the main story for Wednesday, but some of those
morning and afternoon storms could be strong, to perhaps isolated
severe. With the instability axis generally lined up to the west,
the farther east any storms form will have a lessor chance to be
severe.
For Thursday another area of low pressure will eject through the
area, and perhaps be accompanied by convection rolling eastward off
the High Plains. This should kick off another round of convection
across the area. Thursday will likely bring quite a bit more
instability with ML CAPE values approaching 1000 to 2000 J/kg, but
shear will still be on the low end, with 0-6 km layer shear in the
20 to 30 kt range. Even though the CAPE/shear values are not
incredibly high they will be ample to possibly produced some
organized rotating cells, and perhaps an isolated supercell or two
across the area. Once again, the main threats will be hail and wind
for
Friday brings a slightly different story, as a surface boundary will
sag southward, and basically bisect the forecast area E-W. Friday
looks to be a little more capped than the previous couple of days,
and that convective inhibition is a bit more influenced by some
moderate height rises across the Plains for that time period. With
good turning in the atmosphere, characterized by veering-with-height
wind profile deep shear will be a bit higher, and instability will
be in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range any storm that is able to go up on
Friday has a chance to be severe. If a storm does latch itself to
the boundary, which will be somewhere near I-70 it could get a
little extra low level turning, which would make any storm in that
area even stronger. Synoptically speaking Friday doesn`t seem to
bring much in the way of severe weather potential, but the mesoscale
forecast closer to the event might reveal some potential for some
isolated to scattered severe storms.
By Saturday, the chances for severe weather start to synoptically
increase. A very large trough, off to the west, will eventually take
on a negative tilt and move through the Central Plains this weekend.
Saturday still looks to be a little too far west to bring much in
the way of widespread severe weather to the area. But during the
overnight hours on Saturday night into Sunday morning the convection
that occurs over the western and central plains will likely roll
through the area. Convection during this overnight period would
likely not be as organized, but it could roll through as an
organized MCS, bringing a low end hail threat, but a larger wind
threat Saturday night into Sunday morning.
While this time period is still quite a way out, and much will
depend on how things pan out closer to the event, Sunday is looking
to be the day to watch as far as widespread severe weather across
eastern Kansas and western Missouri is concerned. Recent runs of the
GFS and ECMWF indicate a very potent mid level trough moving through
the area Saturday night and Sunday. At the surface there will likely
be a dry line somewhere between KDDC and KEMP. Where exactly the dry
line sets up will dictate whether heightened concern for significant
severe weather is warranted on Sunday. Should the dry line set up
farther west, as is indicated by the GFS, then the area might be
spared the brunt of the severe weather. But if it sets up near KEMP
or even a little farther east, then this area could see a rather
significant severe weather day on Sunday. But again, despite the
synoptic signal, and with the timing so far out, and with mesoscale
features playing a big roll in how convection plays out it`s much
too early to get super concerned about severe weather this weekend.
Also, despite the uncertainty regarding the timing, location, and
severity of the thunderstorm activity through the rest of the week
and into the weekend, there is also a very strong signal to support a
prolonged period of multiple rounds of heavy rain. Some areas could
see higher amounts, and some locations could see lower amounts, but
generally speaking there appears to be a good signal for several
inches of rain (perhaps up to 5 inches in some areas) through the
next 5 to 7 days.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1047 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015
VFR conditions expected through the majority of the overnight period.
Shwrs and embedded storms now seen over central OK and KS will slowly
work into the area after 10z. For now...have decided to highlight
this possibility with a TEMPO group as some questions still remain on
how far east this activity will make it before 12z. The other concern
this evening continues to be LLWS potential after 10z as the low-
level jet increases. For now...have inserted a mention at all
forecast sites as winds are forecast to increase to near 40 kts at 2
kft. Shwrs/storms to overspread the area after 12z with precip
chances continuing through much of the morning/early afternoon as
main upper shortwave moves through. Periodic VSBY and CIG reductions
are likely through the day.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...32
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
655 PM CDT Tue May 5 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 409 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015
Active pattern will continue through the rest of the week, and into
the weekend. Perhaps the quietest of the next several days will be
this afternoon. Warm and muggy conditions persist across the area
today, with temperatures in the middle 70s to lower 80s, with
dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. RAP soundings indicate that
the atmosphere is uncapped, which has allowed for the CU field to
form across the area. However the lack of any appreciable forcing
has prevented much in the way of thunderstorm development. That
being said, with the uncapped environment there is enough weak
forcing to get a few storms to form across central Missouri. These
storms will generally be pretty scattered in nature across the area,
but coverage will not be very great. Any shower will likely be
rather brief in nature. No strong or severe weather is anticipated
with any of these storms outside of a wind gust or two near the
storm. These diurnally driven showers will likely fall apart and
diminish around sunset.
Over the next several days several shortwave troughs will be rolling
through the area, bringing several chances of rain. The first
appreciable chance for rain will be during the morning to early
afternoon hours on Wednesday as a vorticity lobe will swing through
the area, bringing some scattered convection. While there will be
some instability in the area, on the order of 500 to 1000 J/kg the
amount of instability will be somewhat meager. Deep layer shear will
also be on the low side, with 20 to 30 kts of 0-6 km shear. So given
those particular CAPE/shear parameters it doesn`t look like severe
weather will be the main story for Wednesday, but some of those
morning and afternoon storms could be strong, to perhaps isolated
severe. With the instability axis generally lined up to the west,
the farther east any storms form will have a lessor chance to be
severe.
For Thursday another area of low pressure will eject through the
area, and perhaps be accompanied by convection rolling eastward off
the High Plains. This should kick off another round of convection
across the area. Thursday will likely bring quite a bit more
instability with ML CAPE values approaching 1000 to 2000 J/kg, but
shear will still be on the low end, with 0-6 km layer shear in the
20 to 30 kt range. Even though the CAPE/shear values are not
incredibly high they will be ample to possibly produced some
organized rotating cells, and perhaps an isolated supercell or two
across the area. Once again, the main threats will be hail and wind
for
Friday brings a slightly different story, as a surface boundary will
sag southward, and basically bisect the forecast area E-W. Friday
looks to be a little more capped than the previous couple of days,
and that convective inhibition is a bit more influenced by some
moderate height rises across the Plains for that time period. With
good turning in the atmosphere, characterized by veering-with-height
wind profile deep shear will be a bit higher, and instability will
be in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range any storm that is able to go up on
Friday has a chance to be severe. If a storm does latch itself to
the boundary, which will be somewhere near I-70 it could get a
little extra low level turning, which would make any storm in that
area even stronger. Synoptically speaking Friday doesn`t seem to
bring much in the way of severe weather potential, but the mesoscale
forecast closer to the event might reveal some potential for some
isolated to scattered severe storms.
By Saturday, the chances for severe weather start to synoptically
increase. A very large trough, off to the west, will eventually take
on a negative tilt and move through the Central Plains this weekend.
Saturday still looks to be a little too far west to bring much in
the way of widespread severe weather to the area. But during the
overnight hours on Saturday night into Sunday morning the convection
that occurs over the western and central plains will likely roll
through the area. Convection during this overnight period would
likely not be as organized, but it could roll through as an
organized MCS, bringing a low end hail threat, but a larger wind
threat Saturday night into Sunday morning.
While this time period is still quite a way out, and much will
depend on how things pan out closer to the event, Sunday is looking
to be the day to watch as far as widespread severe weather across
eastern Kansas and western Missouri is concerned. Recent runs of the
GFS and ECMWF indicate a very potent mid level trough moving through
the area Saturday night and Sunday. At the surface there will likely
be a dry line somewhere between KDDC and KEMP. Where exactly the dry
line sets up will dictate whether heightened concern for significant
severe weather is warranted on Sunday. Should the dry line set up
farther west, as is indicated by the GFS, then the area might be
spared the brunt of the severe weather. But if it sets up near KEMP
or even a little farther east, then this area could see a rather
significant severe weather day on Sunday. But again, despite the
synoptic signal, and with the timing so far out, and with mesoscale
features playing a big roll in how convection plays out it`s much
too early to get super concerned about severe weather this weekend.
Also, despite the uncertainty regarding the timing, location, and
severity of the thunderstorm activity through the rest of the week
and into the weekend, there is also a very strong signal to support a
prolonged period of multiple rounds of heavy rain. Some areas could
see higher amounts, and some locations could see lower amounts, but
generally speaking there appears to be a good signal for several
inches of rain (perhaps up to 5 inches in some areas) through the
next 5 to 7 days.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 655 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015
Isolated shwrs and storms moving north through eastern KS at 00z should
largely remain west of most terminals. The only exception will be IXD
where periodic VIS/CIG restrictions will be possible for the next
hour or two. Otherwise...concerns overnight will transition to LLWS
as the low-level jet strengthens aloft. Big question remains whether
the boundary layer will have the opportunity to decouple overnight.
For now...have included a LLWS mention at STJ who likely stands as the
best candidate to see decoupled conditions during the early morning
hrs. Will have to evaluate other locations for the 6z TAF package.
Otherwise...shwrs/storms expected to increase in areal coverage after
12z tomorrow as main upper-level disturbance begins moving through
the area. Periodic restrictions will be possible under the heaviest
activity.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...32
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
126 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015
There are 2 main areas with precipitation potential this morning.
The first is from southeast/east central MO eastward into IL where
low-mid level warm advection has resulted in spotty showers within
the last few hours. The GFS and recent runs of the HRRR suggest
this potential will persist until around mid morning. The other
area is across northeast MO/west central IL extending into parts
of central MO. The frontal convection has in general become less
organized with one area from eastern IA into northern IL and another
cluster in NW MO. Both regions have generated a pre-frontal cold
pool and outflow boundary, but its the western-most area in NW MO
that bears the most watching. General movement has been to the
southeast and some of the hi-res WRFs want to bring this cluster
along with some additional development into north-central/central MO
this morning. The current cluster is within a region of moisture
convergence along the northern terminus of a 40+ kts southwesterly
LLJ and weak elevated CAPE. It should encounter a less favorable
environment as it moves southeast this morning, primarily after 12z,
however forcing may be sufficient for scattered showers and
thunderstorms within the area highlighted by the hi-res guidance.
Otherwise clouds should thin across the entire area during the later
half of the morning and into the early afternoon and when combined
with the present WAA regime and temps aloft, this should result in
another warm day with well above normal highs in the 80s.
There are some discrepancies in the guidance on the southward
position of the front this afternoon and evening with the RAP and
ECMWF showing a bit more southward position into the northern part
of the CWA by 00z, while the remainder of the models keep it near
or just south of the MO/IA border. I think it will ooze south into
the far northern part of the CWA by late afternoon. Present
indications are that heating and continued low-level moistening
late morning into afternoon will result in moderate instability
along the frontal zone. Good low level convergence along the
boundary combined with lift associated with a migrating short wave
moving across southern IA/northern MO should result in extensive
convective development during the later half of the afternoon
spanning from KS across northern MO/southern IA into central IL. I
am still thinking that the broad and veering southwesterly LLJ will
maintain numerous thunderstorms/clusters during the evening with a
decided eastward motion. Although the models suggest the front will
shift slightly northward overnight I am not so sure this will happen
with rain cooled air maintaining its position. However increased
ridging aloft both in the low-mid levels suggest that the forecast
of a northward shift in the convection overnight is reasonable. The
only noticeable change to the pops tonight is to expand the area of
slight chances southward a bit to I-70. The GFS and ECMWF QPFs are a
bit far south and well into the warm sector and I would think the
majority of the convection will reside along the front and northward
into the cool air.
Glass
.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015
Not much has changed in thinking from 24 hours ago with respect to
the Tuesday through weekend period. The front will make a decided
shift northward on Tuesday as ridging aloft continues to build from
the lower TN Valley into the upper MS Valley, while across southern
sections of the CWA we continue to see the models generate some
light QPF. I`m still not sold on it but will maintain low pops in
the slight range given the uncertainty. Tuesday still looks to be
another day of above normal temps with highs in the 80s.
Flow aloft becomes more south-southwest on Wednesday and a lead
impulse within this flow will traverse the western CWA prompting
an increased threat of showers and thunderstorms across western MO
into central MO. Flow aloft becomes southwesterly by Thursday and
this regime persists into the weekend ahead of a upper trof/low
migrating from the western U.S. and into the central U.S.. The threat
of showers and thunderstorms Thursday into the weekend gradually
ramps up and spreads west to east due to the active southwest flow
aloft with embedded disturbances, moist unstable warm sector, and
slowly encroaching cold front. Above normal temperatures should
persist through the extended period.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015
The cold front that approached the area last night has stalled
today and is currently aligned from nthrn IL to SE IA to NW MO and
then on into KS. This bndry is not expected to make much more
addtnl progress to the SE today. Pesky -SHRAs have continued to
drift across cntrl MO today with an occnl lightning strike. This
activity should continue to slowly weaken as it works east this
aftn. Another area of remnant SHRAs across cntrl IL will continue
to move away from the area. An expanding area of mainly SHRAs with
isld TSMS across ern NE and SW IA will continue to dvlp and move
east this aftn and into the envg. This activity should be tied to the
bndry which would keep the majority of the activity N of the
terminals...but I do expect KUIN to be impacted tonight and
possibly sooner. KUINs CIGs/VSBYs will be tied to the strength of
the convection...but it is too early to try and pin that detail down
attm. The bndry begins lifting back to the north after midnight
taking the threat of precip with it. The only caveat is if the
convection can get organized and push an outflow bndry SE...and
then the question becomes timing and how far it makes it before
dssptng. Either way Tuesday should be VFR.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR fcst thru the prd as the nearby bndry should remain too far to
the NW of the terminal to be of any concern. Diurnal cu has dvlpd
once again with plenty of convective debris clouds slowly thinning
thru the aftn. Winds will continue to have a shtrly component.
The only caveat to the fcst is if convection along the bndry
becomes organized and pushes an outflow bndry SE tonight...then
the question becomes timing and how far SE it makes it before
dssptng but not confident enough in this scenario to include attm.
2%
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
633 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015
There are 2 main areas with precipitation potential this morning.
The first is from southeast/east central MO eastward into IL where
low-mid level warm advection has resulted in spotty showers within
the last few hours. The GFS and recent runs of the HRRR suggest
this potential will persist until around mid morning. The other
area is across northeast MO/west central IL extending into parts
of central MO. The frontal convection has in general become less
organized with one area from eastern IA into northern IL and another
cluster in NW MO. Both regions have generated a pre-frontal cold
pool and outflow boundary, but its the western-most area in NW MO
that bears the most watching. General movement has been to the
southeast and some of the hi-res WRFs want to bring this cluster
along with some additional development into north-central/central MO
this morning. The current cluster is within a region of moisture
convergence along the northern terminus of a 40+ kts southwesterly
LLJ and weak elevated CAPE. It should encounter a less favorable
enviroment as it moves southeast this morning, primarily after 12z,
however forcing may be sufficient for scattered showers and
thunderstorms within the area highlighted by the hi-res guidance.
Otherwise clouds should thin across the entire area during the later
half of the morning and into the early afternoon and when combined
with the present WAA regime and temps aloft, this should result in
another warm day with well above normal highs in the 80s.
There are some discrepencies in the guidance on the southward
position of the front this afternoon and evening with the RAP and
ECMWF showing a bit more southward position into the northern part
of the CWA by 00z, while the remainder of the models keep it near
or just south of the MO/IA border. I think it will ooze south into
the far northern part of the CWA by late afternoon. Present
indications are that heating and continued low-level moistening
late morning into afternoon will result in moderate instability
along the frontal zone. Good low level convergence along the
boundary combined with lift associated with a migrating short wave
moving across southern IA/northern MO should result in extensive
convective development during the later half of the afternoon
spanning from KS across northern MO/southern IA into central IL. I
am still thinking that the broad and veering southwesterly LLJ will
maintain numberous thunderstorms/clusters during the evening with a
decided eastward motion. Although the models suggest the front will
shift slightly northward overnight I am not so sure this will happen
with rain cooled air maintaining its position. However increased
ridging aloft both in the low-mid levels suggest that the forecast
of a northward shift in the convection overnight is reasonable. The
only noticeable change to the pops tonight is to expand the area of
slight chances southward a bit to I-70. The GFS and ECMWF QPFs are a
bit far south and well into the warm sector and I would think the
majority of the convection will reside along the front and northward
into the cool air.
Glass
.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015
Not much has changed in thinking from 24 hours ago with respect to
the Tuesday through weekend period. The front will make a decided
shift northward on Tuesday as ridging aloft continues to build from
the lower TN Valley into the upper MS Valley, while across southern
sections of the CWA we continue to see the models generate some
light QPF. I`m still not sold on it but will maintain low pops in
the slight range given the uncertainty. Tuesday still looks to be
another day of above normal temps with highs in the 80s.
Flow aloft becomes more south-southwest on Wednesday and a lead
impulse within this flow will traverse the western CWA prompting
an increased threat of showers and thunderstorms across western MO
into central MO. Flow aloft becomes southwesterly by Thursday and
this regime persists into the weekend ahead of a upper trof/low
migrating from the western U.S. and into the central U.S.. The threat
of showers and thunderstorms Thursday into the weekend gradually
ramps up and spreads west to east due to the active southwest flow
aloft with embedded disturbances, moist unstable warm sector, and
slowly encroaching cold front. Above normal temperatures should
persist through the extended period.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015
VFR conditions to persist through forecast period. Main issue will
be scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially this morning
and again later in the day today. Coverage is scattered this
morning, so for now have vcnty shower mention at all sites, except
KUIN where have vcnty trw mention as they are closer to frontal
boundary and activity firing along outflow boundary. Another round
of storms possible late this afternoon and evening for KUIN with
frontal boundary in area. Otherwise, south to southwest winds to
persist today with gusts to near 20kts at times, before
diminishing towards sunset.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR conditions to persist through forecast period. Main issue will
be scattered showers this morning. Coverage is scattered, so for
now have vcnty shower mention in metro area. Otherwise, south to
southwest winds to persist today with gusts to near 20kts at
times, before diminishing towards sunset.
Byrd
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
357 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015
There are 2 main areas with precipitation potential this morning.
The first is from southeast/east central MO eastward into IL where
low-mid level warm advection has resulted in spotty showers within
the last few hours. The GFS and recent runs of the HRRR suggest
this potential will persist until around mid morning. The other
area is across northeast MO/west central IL extending into parts
of central MO. The frontal convection has in general become less
organized with one area from eastern IA into northern IL and another
cluster in NW MO. Both regions have generated a pre-frontal cold
pool and outflow boundary, but its the western-most area in NW MO
that bears the most watching. General movement has been to the
southeast and some of the hi-res WRFs want to bring this cluster
along with some additional development into north-central/central MO
this morning. The current cluster is within a region of moisture
convergence along the northern terminus of a 40+ kts southwesterly
LLJ and weak elevated CAPE. It should encounter a less favorable
enviroment as it moves southeast this morning, primarily after 12z,
however forcing may be sufficient for scattered showers and
thunderstorms within the area highlighted by the hi-res guidance.
Otherwise clouds should thin across the entire area during the later
half of the morning and into the early afternoon and when combined
with the present WAA regime and temps aloft, this should result in
another warm day with well above normal highs in the 80s.
There are some discrepencies in the guidance on the southward
position of the front this afternoon and evening with the RAP and
ECMWF showing a bit more southward position into the northern part
of the CWA by 00z, while the remainder of the models keep it near
or just south of the MO/IA border. I think it will ooze south into
the far northern part of the CWA by late afternoon. Present
indications are that heating and continued low-level moistening
late morning into afternoon will result in moderate instability
along the frontal zone. Good low level convergence along the
boundary combined with lift associated with a migrating short wave
moving across southern IA/northern MO should result in extensive
convective development during the later half of the afternoon
spanning from KS across northern MO/southern IA into central IL. I
am still thinking that the broad and veering southwesterly LLJ will
maintain numberous thunderstorms/clusters during the evening with a
decided eastward motion. Although the models suggest the front will
shift slightly northward overnight I am not so sure this will happen
with rain cooled air maintaining its position. However increased
ridging aloft both in the low-mid levels suggest that the forecast
of a northward shift in the convection overnight is reasonable. The
only noticeable change to the pops tonight is to expand the area of
slight chances southward a bit to I-70. The GFS and ECMWF QPFs are a
bit far south and well into the warm sector and I would think the
majority of the convection will reside along the front and northward
into the cool air.
Glass
.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015
Not much has changed in thinking from 24 hours ago with respect to
the Tuesday through weekend period. The front will make a decided
shift northward on Tuesday as ridging aloft continues to build from
the lower TN Valley into the upper MS Valley, while across southern
sections of the CWA we continue to see the models generate some
light QPF. I`m still not sold on it but will maintain low pops in
the slight range given the uncertainty. Tuesday still looks to be
another day of above normal temps with highs in the 80s.
Flow aloft becomes more south-southwest on Wednesday and a lead
impulse within this flow will traverse the western CWA prompting
an increased threat of showers and thunderstorms across western MO
into central MO. Flow aloft becomes southwesterly by Thursday and
this regime persists into the weekend ahead of a upper trof/low
migrating from the western U.S. and into the central U.S.. The threat
of showers and thunderstorms Thursday into the weekend gradually
ramps up and spreads west to east due to the active southwest flow
aloft with embedded disturbances, moist unstable warm sector, and
slowly encroaching cold front. Above normal temperatures should
persist through the extended period.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015
VFR flight conditions are expected to continue to prevail across
the area through Monday evening. Scattered thunderstorms are
likely to drift south out of Iowa between 09Z-12Z, potentially
impacting the KUIN terminal. However, am not confident enough in
areal coverage to mention more than vicinity thunder in the TAF at
this time. Further south, short-range guidance is hinting that
there will be some high-based showers developing over east central
Missouri and southwest Illinois around 12Z. Showers should
dissipate by mid morning. VFR conditions with gusty southwest flow
is expected for Monday late morning through the afternoon.
Another round of thunderstorms is expected near a cold front which
will dip into northern Missouri. Coverage over northeast Missouri
and west central Illinois is again questionable, and much of the
activity may stay north of the area. Thunderstorm activity should
diminish through the evening.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR flight conditions and south-southwest flow will prevail at
Lambert. Isolated to widely scattered high based showers look
likely to develop around 12Z Monday morning. Think impacts to the
airport will be minimal...though if a heavier shower happens to
pass over the airport it could briefly drop visibility to MVFR
range. Showers should dissipate by 14-15Z. Wind will be in the
200-220 range through much of the period, increasing to around
12kts during the afternoon with gusts to 20kts. There is a slight
chance of thunderstorms during the late afternoon, but it`s much
more likely that any thunderstorm activity will stay well north of
the terminal.
Carney
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
925 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015
.UPDATE...
FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE OVERALL. MADE JUST A FEW CHANGES BASED
ON LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE. JET DIVERGENCE FROM
RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF DEPARTING JET...COMBINED WITH A
SHORTWAVE...WAS CREATING SHOWERS OVER SE MT THIS MORNING PER RADAR
IMAGERY. NOTED THAT HULETT WY IN NE WY REPORTED MODERATE RAIN FOR
A TIME. THE HRRR HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS PRECIPITATION...SO HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS A BIT IN THIS AREA TO GO CLOSER TO THIS MODEL. KEPT
LINGERING POPS IN THE FAR E AFTER 18Z PER MODELS AS WELL. A FEW
RADAR ECHOES WERE ALSO MOVING OFF THE NE BIGHORNS AND APPEARED TO
BE GENERATED BY SE UPSLOPE FLOW. WEB CAMS DID NOT SHOW ANY
PRECIPITATION...BUT ADDED A LOW POP OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING TO COVER POSSIBLE SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS WERE
APPROACHING THE SW MOUNTAINS FROM ID ON RADAR...SO HAD LOW POPS
OVER THESE MOUNTAINS AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. NOTED AIRMASS WAS MOISTENING UP AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER S AND SE OF THE AREA HAVE TRENDED UP SINCE YESTERDAY. THIS
WAS DUE TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SE FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS FLOW
WAS CREATING GUSTY SE WINDS OVER KSHR AND SE MT THIS MORNING. HAVE
ADJUSTED WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING TO REFLECT LATEST WIND
GUIDANCE AND OBSERVED TRENDS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE TERRAIN-DRIVEN
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND AFTERNOON/EVENING POPS MATCHED LATEST
GUIDANCE. THE SREF CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE SURFACE CAPES OF AT
LEAST 500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON...AND SINCE THUNDER HAS BEEN
OCCURRING IN WY WITH SIMILAR CAPES THE PAST FEW AFTERNOONS...HAVE
INCREASED THUNDER PROBABILITIES THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHEAR WILL
BE WEAK.
RAP SOUNDINGS HAVE MIXING TO 700 MB CENTRAL AND W TODAY WITH
LESSER MIXING E OF KBIL. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKED GOOD
GIVEN TEMPERATURES ALOFT. RH/S WERE ALSO IN GOOD SHAPE GIVEN THE
INCREASING MOISTURE.
QUICK GLANCE AT TUE SHOWED SIMILAR CAPES TO TODAY WITH LITTLE
SHEAR...AND INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MAY
INCREASE CHANCES FOR THUNDER TUE AFTERNOON AFTER SEEING WHAT
OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON. ARTHUR
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENT WITH
THEMSELVES.
AN UPPER LOW AND TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
LATE TODAY INTO TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME WEAK RIDGING ALONG WITH
A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.
SEVERAL SURFACE LOWS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES BRINGING A PREDOMINATELY SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW RESULTING
IN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A FEW DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS WYOMING AND FAR
SOUTHERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THESE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WITH CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAPES
TODAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE HIGHER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE A BIT HIGHER...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF
THE ENTIRE WEEK. READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES OUT NEAR THE DAKOTA BORDERS. HOOLEY
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...
THE MODELS THROUGH THE LONG TERM CONTINUE TO SHOW A PATTERN
CHANGE TO COOLER AND WETTER...HOWEVER THEY ARE NOT PRESENTING AS
ENERGETIC OF A SYSTEM. WEDNESDAY A QUICK SHORTWAVE MOVES JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA...BRINGING SOME INSTABILITY. ALONG WITH IT THERE
WILL BE SOME CONVECTIVE ENERGY TO WORK WITH...SO THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AFTER WEDNESDAY THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHES.
YESTERDAY THE MODELS WERE SHOWING A CLOSED LOW MOVING OUT OF THE
GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND. THE LATEST RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF
SOME...TO MORE A FILLING LOW/OPEN WAVE MOVING OUT INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. THIS DOES NOT HAVE AS MUCH ENERGY OR THE FORCING THAT
MODELS WERE ADVERTISING YESTERDAY. AS SUCH PRECIP THROUGH THE
WEEKEND IS LESS. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO NOT DO ANYTHING RADICAL TO
THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND. CONTINUE THE TREND OF COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RATHER CLOUDY
AND SOMEWHAT RAINY CONDITIONS. REIMER
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS
TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH LOCAL OBSCURATIONS. ISOLATED ACTIVITY
MAY MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO NEARBY LOWER ELEVATIONS
WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT VFR WEATHER WILL OTHERWISE PRE-
VAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 KT IN
SOUTHEASTERN MT TODAY AS WELL. SCHULTZ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 075 050/077 050/063 043/052 040/053 037/054 040/059
1/B 12/T 33/T 34/W 33/W 45/W 53/W
LVM 073 042/077 044/063 039/047 035/049 032/052 033/059
2/T 23/T 45/T 55/W 44/W 55/W 53/W
HDN 076 045/080 048/064 043/056 038/058 036/058 035/060
1/B 11/B 33/T 33/W 33/W 45/W 43/W
MLS 070 047/076 051/064 042/057 039/058 036/056 038/058
1/N 11/B 35/T 33/W 22/W 34/W 44/W
4BQ 067 044/073 049/063 043/057 038/057 035/055 037/056
2/W 11/B 45/T 43/W 32/W 45/W 55/W
BHK 063 043/069 049/063 041/055 036/055 032/055 034/054
2/W 01/N 47/T 54/W 22/W 34/W 54/W
SHR 070 043/074 048/059 041/054 036/056 034/054 036/055
2/T 12/T 45/T 44/W 43/W 45/W 54/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1232 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015
MULTIPLE SHORT-TERM UPDATES HAVE BEEN POSTED TO THE FCST. A
CONVECTIVELY GENERATED VORTEX /MCV/ IS LIFTING NE ACROSS THE FCST
AREA AND AN 88D LOOP SUGGESTS THE CENTER IS NEAR BELOIT KS. THERE
EVEN APPEARS TO BE A SFC REFLECTION/LOW IN SFC PLOTS.
A COUPLE NARROW BANDS OF TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER S-CNTRL NEB
ALONG AND JUST E OF HWY 281. MOST OF THE SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY IS IN
THE NW SEMI-CIRCLE OF THIS CIRCULATION.
MUCAPE IS 250 J/KG OR LESS WHICH IS ENOUGH FOR LIGHTNING STRIKES
AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT LITTLE ELSE.
AS CLOUD COVER THINS THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT MODEST
DESTABILIZATION AND ADDITIONAL SCT COULD SHWRS/TSTMS REDEVELOP IN
NARROW ARCS/BANDS.
SEVERE: THE COOL FRONT THAT MOVED THRU SUN AFTERNOON/EVE EXTENDED
SW-NE ACROSS KS...FROM GCK-RSL-FRI-STJ. DESTABLIZATION WILL BE
GREATEST ALONG AND S OF THIS LINE AND THIS IS WHERE TSTM
INITIATION WILL OCCUR...MAINLY S AND E OF THE FCST AREA. THE NRN
FRINGE OF THE INSTABILITY WILL EXIST OVER N-CNTRL KS...WITH
1000-1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE. THERE WILL BE A FRONTAL INVERSION
/CINH/ IN PLACE...BUT ENOUGH HEATING COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS
TO DEVELOP ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT...WHERE SHEAR WOULD BE
GREATER AND ALLOW FOR BETTER STORM ORGANIATION.
ONE NEGATIVE FACTOR IS POOR MID-LVL LAPSE RATES. FCST CAPE
PROFILES LOOK SKINNY...BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW THE EXACT
ENVIRONMENT SINCE MODEL CONVECTIVE SCHEMES ARE KICKING IN EARLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING
CHANCES AND TIMING OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS. ANOTHER CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.
SYNOPTICALLY...WE CONTINUE THE SPLIT FLOW SCENARIO WHILE WE ARE
BETWEEN JET STREAMS. A BROAD NEGATIVELY TILTED MEAN TROUGH IN THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES NUDGES A LITTLE CLOSER AS A PERTURBATION A
SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS STALLED OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA. A MID-
LEVEL PERTURBATION WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF COLORADO/KANSAS INTO
OUR AREA BY MID-DAY. THIS WILL LIKELY SPARK SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONT. INSTABILITY COULD BE
AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG. MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAK. BULK
SHEAR WILL BE WEAK AT MAYBE 20-30 KTS. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A
MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT...AT LEAST IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA...AND AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR NEAR WILL
BE ENHANCED NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE TOUGH. THERE WILL BE A VERY LARGE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT AS THE SURFACE FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHERN
CWA. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SKY COVER AS MODELS INDICATE AN
EXTENSIVE SHIELD OF STRATUS DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY PROBABLY WILL NOT MAKE IT VERY FAR BECAUSE OF THIS AND
HAVE SIDED TOWARD COOLER THAN GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR HIGHS. WE MAY
HAVE A HARD TIME BREAKING 60 IN SOME PLACES. I DECIDED TO GO WITH
A BLEND OF THE HI RES NMM AND THE RAP FOR HIGHS...AS THESE MODELS
HAVE DONE QUITE WELL LATELY. WENT WITH THE FAIRLY DEPENDABLE
SUPERBLEND FOR LOWS TONIGHT. WE COULD ALSO GET SOME DECENT GUSTS
TODAY NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BE A BIT TIGHT. I WENT WITH CONSRAW WIND GUSTS FOR TODAY...WHICH
IS GREATER THAN THE STANDARD WIND GUST ALGORITHM.
DETERMINING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WAS BASED ON ENSEMBLE DATA
AS WELL AS SUPERBLEND TRENDS. CONFIDENCE HAS NOT BEEN HIGH FOR
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND CONTINUES TO BE LOW FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PERTURBATION FOR TODAY AND A BIT
OF A LOW-LEVEL JET TONIGHT...ALONG WITH THE BOUNDARY SHIFTING
NORTH TONIGHT...WE WILL HAVE A DECENT SHOT AT PRECIPITATION AT
ALMOST ANY POINT DURING THE SHORT TERM. ANY THREAT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015
EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK. THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OPENS THE WAVE AS IT MOVES TO
THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS LATER IN THE WEEK.
ON TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW IS STILL IN THE ROCKIES AND A WAVE MOVES
INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA CLOSER TO
THE UPPER WAVE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE WAVE MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS
AND STARTS TO OPEN. THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER WAVE IS NEAREST TO
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE SOME OF THE BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...THE MUCAPE
INCREASES TO OVER 1500 J/KG AND SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE.
THE INITIAL UPPER WAVE MOVES TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY AND EVEN
THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND...THE
CHANCES WILL BE A LITTLE LESS THAN BEFORE. BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE
NEXT UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND THE FIRST WAVE FROM THIS
WAVE STARTS TO AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE EAST
AND UPPER LEVEL WAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...AND AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THERE
CONTINUES TO BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AT LEAST SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE WARM. THEN A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL
REMAIN A LITTLE COOLER BUT STILL AROUND OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015
THIS AFTERNOON: VARIABLE CIGS BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR WITH IFR VSBYS
IN SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE. NE WINDS 10-15 KTS. CONFIDENCE: LOW DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY ON CIGS AND OCCURRENCE/TIMING OF SHWRS/TSTMS.
TONIGHT: MVFR STRATUS CIGS SHOULD INVADE AND DEGRADE TO IFR AS
WARM FRONT LIFTS N. A PERIOD OF MVFR OR IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN
SHWRS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER. THEREAFTER...MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN
PATCHY FOG AFTER 09Z. NE WINDS DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO SE.
CONFIDENCE: LOW ON ARRIVAL TIME OF STRATUS AND CIG CHANGES.
TUE THRU 18Z: IFR STRATUS/PATCHY MVFR FOG LIFTS TO MVFR BY 15Z. SE
WINDS INCREASE 10-15 KTS. CONFIDENCE: LOW
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1129 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015
MULTIPLE SHORT-TERM UPDATES HAVE BEEN POSTED TO THE FCST. A
CONVECTIVELY GENERATED VORTEX /MCV/ IS LIFTING NE ACROSS THE FCST
AREA AND AN 88D LOOP SUGGESTS THE CENTER IS NEAR BELOIT KS. THERE
EVEN APPEARS TO BE A SFC REFLECTION/LOW IN SFC PLOTS.
A COUPLE NARROW BANDS OF TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER S-CNTRL NEB
ALONG AND JUST E OF HWY 281. MOST OF THE SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY IS IN
THE NW SEMI-CIRCLE OF THIS CIRCULATION.
MUCAPE IS 250 J/KG OR LESS WHICH IS ENOUGH FOR LIGHTNING STRIKES
AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT LITTLE ELSE.
AS CLOUD COVER THINS THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT MODEST
DESTABILIZATION AND ADDITIONAL SCT COULD SHWRS/TSTMS REDEVELOP IN
NARROW ARCS/BANDS.
SEVERE: THE COOL FRONT THAT MOVED THRU SUN AFTERNOON/EVE EXTENDED
SW-NE ACROSS KS...FROM GCK-RSL-FRI-STJ. DESTABLIZATION WILL BE
GREATEST ALONG AND S OF THIS LINE AND THIS IS WHERE TSTM
INITIATION WILL OCCUR...MAINLY S AND E OF THE FCST AREA. THE NRN
FRINGE OF THE INSTABILITY WILL EXIST OVER N-CNTRL KS...WITH
1000-1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE. THERE WILL BE A FRONTAL INVERSION
/CINH/ IN PLACE...BUT ENOUGH HEATING COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS
TO DEVELOP ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT...WHERE SHEAR WOULD BE
GREATER AND ALLOW FOR BETTER STORM ORGANIATION.
ONE NEGATIVE FACTOR IS POOR MID-LVL LAPSE RATES. FCST CAPE
PROFILES LOOK SKINNY...BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW THE EXACT
ENVIRONMENT SINCE MODEL CONVECTIVE SCHEMES ARE KICKING IN EARLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING
CHANCES AND TIMING OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS. ANOTHER CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.
SYNOPTICALLY...WE CONTINUE THE SPLIT FLOW SCENARIO WHILE WE ARE
BETWEEN JET STREAMS. A BROAD NEGATIVELY TILTED MEAN TROUGH IN THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES NUDGES A LITTLE CLOSER AS A PERTURBATION A
SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS STALLED OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA. A MID-
LEVEL PERTURBATION WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF COLORADO/KANSAS INTO
OUR AREA BY MID-DAY. THIS WILL LIKELY SPARK SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONT. INSTABILITY COULD BE
AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG. MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAK. BULK
SHEAR WILL BE WEAK AT MAYBE 20-30 KTS. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A
MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT...AT LEAST IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA...AND AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR NEAR WILL
BE ENHANCED NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE TOUGH. THERE WILL BE A VERY LARGE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT AS THE SURFACE FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHERN
CWA. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SKY COVER AS MODELS INDICATE AN
EXTENSIVE SHIELD OF STRATUS DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY PROBABLY WILL NOT MAKE IT VERY FAR BECAUSE OF THIS AND
HAVE SIDED TOWARD COOLER THAN GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR HIGHS. WE MAY
HAVE A HARD TIME BREAKING 60 IN SOME PLACES. I DECIDED TO GO WITH
A BLEND OF THE HI RES NMM AND THE RAP FOR HIGHS...AS THESE MODELS
HAVE DONE QUITE WELL LATELY. WENT WITH THE FAIRLY DEPENDABLE
SUPERBLEND FOR LOWS TONIGHT. WE COULD ALSO GET SOME DECENT GUSTS
TODAY NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BE A BIT TIGHT. I WENT WITH CONSRAW WIND GUSTS FOR TODAY...WHICH
IS GREATER THAN THE STANDARD WIND GUST ALGORITHM.
DETERMINING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WAS BASED ON ENSEMBLE DATA
AS WELL AS SUPERBLEND TRENDS. CONFIDENCE HAS NOT BEEN HIGH FOR
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND CONTINUES TO BE LOW FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PERTURBATION FOR TODAY AND A BIT
OF A LOW-LEVEL JET TONIGHT...ALONG WITH THE BOUNDARY SHIFTING
NORTH TONIGHT...WE WILL HAVE A DECENT SHOT AT PRECIPITATION AT
ALMOST ANY POINT DURING THE SHORT TERM. ANY THREAT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015
EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK. THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OPENS THE WAVE AS IT MOVES TO
THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS LATER IN THE WEEK.
ON TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW IS STILL IN THE ROCKIES AND A WAVE MOVES
INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA CLOSER TO
THE UPPER WAVE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE WAVE MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS
AND STARTS TO OPEN. THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER WAVE IS NEAREST TO
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE SOME OF THE BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...THE MUCAPE
INCREASES TO OVER 1500 J/KG AND SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE.
THE INITIAL UPPER WAVE MOVES TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY AND EVEN
THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND...THE
CHANCES WILL BE A LITTLE LESS THAN BEFORE. BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE
NEXT UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND THE FIRST WAVE FROM THIS
WAVE STARTS TO AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE EAST
AND UPPER LEVEL WAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...AND AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THERE
CONTINUES TO BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AT LEAST SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE WARM. THEN A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL
REMAIN A LITTLE COOLER BUT STILL AROUND OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUE MORNING)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015
AS A FRONT STALLS WELL SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...A STRATUS DECK IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING AND SOCK US IN WITH SKY COVER.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH AS TO HOW QUICKLY THIS DECK WILL LOWER.
THERE COULD BE SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TOWARD
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN. VISIBILITY
COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS IN A THUNDERSTORM...BUT SINCE
PREDICTABILITY IS SO LOW...ANYTHING SPECIFIC HAS BEEN LEFT OUT OF
THIS FORECAST.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
550 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING
CHANCES AND TIMING OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG STORMS. ANOTHER CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.
SYNOPTICALLY...WE CONTINUE THE SPLIT FLOW SCENARIO WHILE WE ARE
BETWEEN JET STREAMS. A BROAD NEGATIVELY TILTED MEAN TROUGH IN THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES NUDGES A LITTLE CLOSER AS A PERTURBATION A
SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS STALLED OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA. A MID-
LEVEL PERTURBATION WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF COLORADO/KANSAS INTO
OUR AREA BY MID-DAY. THIS WILL LIKELY SPARK SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONT. INSTABILITY COULD BE
AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG. MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAK. BULK
SHEAR WILL BE WEAK AT MAYBE 20-30 KTS. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A
MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT...AT LEAST IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA...AND AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR NEAR WILL
BE ENHANCED NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE TOUGH. THERE WILL BE A VERY LARGE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT AS THE SURFACE FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHERN
CWA. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SKY COVER AS MODELS INDICATE AN
EXTENSIVE SHIELD OF STRATUS DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY PROBABLY WILL NOT MAKE IT VERY FAR BECAUSE OF THIS AND HAVE
SIDED TOWARD COOLER THAN GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR HIGHS. WE MAY HAVE A
HARD TIME BREAKING 60 IN SOME PLACES. I DECIDED TO GO WITH A BLEND
OF THE HI RES NMM AND THE RAP FOR HIGHS...AS THESE MODELS HAVE DONE
QUITE WELL LATELY. WENT WITH THE FAIRLY DEPENDABLE SUPERBLEND FOR
LOWS TONIGHT. WE COULD ALSO GET SOME DECENT GUSTS TODAY NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE A BIT TIGHT. I
WENT WITH CONSRAW WIND GUSTS FOR TODAY...WHICH IS GREATER THAN THE
STANDARD WIND GUST ALGORITHM.
DETERMINING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WAS BASED ON ENSEMBLE DATA AS
WELL AS SUPERBLEND TRENDS. CONFIDENCE HAS NOT BEEN HIGH FOR CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION AND CONTINUES TO BE LOW FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED PERTURBATION FOR TODAY AND A BIT OF A LOW-LEVEL
JET TONIGHT...ALONG WITH THE BOUNDARY SHIFTING NORTH TONIGHT...WE
WILL HAVE A DECENT SHOT AT PRECIPITATION AT ALMOST ANY POINT DURING
THE SHORT TERM. ANY THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
REMAIN PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015
EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK. THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE
WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OPENS THE WAVE AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS LATER IN THE
WEEK.
ON TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW IS STILL IN THE ROCKIES AND A WAVE MOVES
INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE
UPPER WAVE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE WAVE MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS AND
STARTS TO OPEN. THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER WAVE IS NEAREST TO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE SOME OF THE BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...THE MUCAPE
INCREASES TO OVER 1500 J/KG AND SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG
TO SEVERE.
THE INITIAL UPPER WAVE MOVES TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY AND EVEN
THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND...THE
CHANCES WILL BE A LITTLE LESS THAN BEFORE. BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE
NEXT UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND THE FIRST WAVE FROM THIS
WAVE STARTS TO AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE EAST AND
UPPER LEVEL WAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...AND AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THERE CONTINUES
TO BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AT LEAST SOMEWHAT VARIABLE.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE WARM. THEN A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL REMAIN A LITTLE
COOLER BUT STILL AROUND OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015
AS A FRONT STALLS WELL SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...A STRATUS DECK IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING AND SOCK US IN WITH SKY COVER.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH AS TO HOW QUICKLY THIS DECK WILL LOWER. THERE
COULD BE SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN. VISIBILITY COULD
BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS IN A THUNDERSTORM...BUT SINCE PREDICTABILITY
IS SO LOW...ANYTHING SPECIFIC HAS BEEN LEFT OUT OF THIS FORECAST.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
516 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING
CHANCES AND TIMING OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG STORMS. ANOTHER CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.
SYNOPTICALLY...WE CONTINUE THE SPLIT FLOW SCENARIO WHILE WE ARE
BETWEEN JET STREAMS. A BROAD NEGATIVELY TILTED MEAN TROUGH IN THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES NUDGES A LITTLE CLOSER AS A PERTURBATION A
SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS STALLED OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA. A MID-
LEVEL PERTURBATION WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF COLORADO/KANSAS INTO
OUR AREA BY MID-DAY. THIS WILL LIKELY SPARK SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONT. INSTABILITY COULD BE
AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG. MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAK. BULK
SHEAR WILL BE WEAK AT MAYBE 20-30 KTS. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A
MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT...AT LEAST IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA...AND AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR NEAR WILL
BE ENHANCED NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE TOUGH. THERE WILL BE A VERY LARGE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT AS THE SURFACE FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHERN
CWA. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SKY COVER AS MODELS INDICATE AN
EXTENSIVE SHIELD OF STRATUS DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY PROBABLY WILL NOT MAKE IT VERY FAR BECAUSE OF THIS AND HAVE
SIDED TOWARD COOLER THAN GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR HIGHS. WE MAY HAVE A
HARD TIME BREAKING 60 IN SOME PLACES. I DECIDED TO GO WITH A BLEND
OF THE HI RES NMM AND THE RAP FOR HIGHS...AS THESE MODELS HAVE DONE
QUITE WELL LATELY. WENT WITH THE FAIRLY DEPENDABLE SUPERBLEND FOR
LOWS TONIGHT. WE COULD ALSO GET SOME DECENT GUSTS TODAY NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE A BIT TIGHT. I
WENT WITH CONSRAW WIND GUSTS FOR TODAY...WHICH IS GREATER THAN THE
STANDARD WIND GUST ALGORITHM.
DETERMINING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WAS BASED ON ENSEMBLE DATA AS
WELL AS SUPERBLEND TRENDS. CONFIDENCE HAS NOT BEEN HIGH FOR CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION AND CONTINUES TO BE LOW FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED PERTURBATION FOR TODAY AND A BIT OF A LOW-LEVEL
JET TONIGHT...ALONG WITH THE BOUNDARY SHIFTING NORTH TONIGHT...WE
WILL HAVE A DECENT SHOT AT PRECIPITATION AT ALMOST ANY POINT DURING
THE SHORT TERM. ANY THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
REMAIN PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015
EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK. THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE
WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OPENS THE WAVE AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS LATER IN THE
WEEK.
ON TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW IS STILL IN THE ROCKIES AND A WAVE MOVES
INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE
UPPER WAVE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE WAVE MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS AND
STARTS TO OPEN. THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER WAVE IS NEAREST TO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE SOME OF THE BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...THE MUCAPE
INCREASES TO OVER 1500 J/KG AND SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG
TO SEVERE.
THE INITIAL UPPER WAVE MOVES TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY AND EVEN
THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND...THE
CHANCES WILL BE A LITTLE LESS THAN BEFORE. BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE
NEXT UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND THE FIRST WAVE FROM THIS
WAVE STARTS TO AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE EAST AND
UPPER LEVEL WAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...AND AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THERE CONTINUES
TO BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AT LEAST SOMEWHAT VARIABLE.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE WARM. THEN A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL REMAIN A LITTLE
COOLER BUT STILL AROUND OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015
AS A FRONT STALLS WELL SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...A STRATUS DECK IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AND SOCK US IN WITH SKY COVER. THERE COULD BE
SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TOWARD MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN. VISIBILITY COULD BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS IN A THUNDERSTORM...BUT SINCE PREDICTABILITY IS
SO LOW...ANYTHING SPECIFIC HAS BEEN LEFT OUT OF THIS
FORECAST.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
830 PM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CONFINED PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND CENTRAL NEVADA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN DIVE DOWN
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND TAKE AIM AT SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
SURROUNDING AREAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RESULTING IN BREEZY...SHOWERY
AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. A GRADUAL DRYING
AND WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. &&
.UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY AND FAR NORTHWEST
ARIZONA...WITH A SECONDARY AREA ACROSS ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE
COUNTIES. DESPITE THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE
TO COOL AND WITH A WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE AND THE APPROACH OF A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TONIGHT...ACTIVITY MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. HRRR GUIDANCE IS KEYING IN ON OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND THIS LOOKS GOOD
WITH ALREADY EXPANDING COLD CLOUD TOPS ACROSS NYE AND ESMERALDA
COUNTIES.
IVE BUMPED UP POPS IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS TONIGHT AND TWEAKED
CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
-OUTLER-
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE FORECAST AREA WAS BETWEEN SYSTEMS TODAY AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW
PULLED AWAY ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND A MUCH COLDER LOW
CIRCULATED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ATTENTION TURNS TO THIS
PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM AS IT WILL BRING A DRAMATICALLY COOLER
WEATHER BY FRIDAY ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA. THE 12Z MODELS ARE
ALL IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
PROGRESSION OF THE CLOSED LOW THROUGH FRIDAY.
A MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE WAS SETTING UP ACROSS INYO...
ESMERALDA...CENTRAL NYE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
SHOULD HOLD FAIRLY STATIONARY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST IS PULLED INLAND
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT UP THROUGH
NORTHEAST NEVADA WEDNESDAY WITH A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW SPREADING UP
THROUGH ALL BUT OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES. THIS WILL SHIFT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH...AFFECTING MAINLY NORTHERN INYO...ESMERALDA...NORTHERN NYE
AND LINCOLN COUNTIES. WILL TRIM POPS DOWN SOMEWHAT SOUTH OF THESE
AREAS FOR WEDNESDAY.
FOR THURSDAY...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DIVE INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WHICH WILL PLACE MUCH OF INYO AND ESMERALDA
COUNTIES NEAR THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND FAVOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MEANWHILE...A DRY SLOT IS FORECAST TO BE OVER MUCH OF
SAN BERNARDINO...CLARK...LINCOLN AND SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY. MAY
NEED TO TRIM THE POPS FOR THESE COUNTIES A LITTLE MORE. DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR SOUTHERN NEVADA. WINDS WILL
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT BUT THE
LATEST HIGH RES MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE INDICATE BORDERLINE ADVISORY
LEVELS.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE LOW CENTER AND COLD POOL IS FORECAST
TO HEAD EAST AND GO RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA. THIS WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SNOW LEVELS
DROPPING TO AROUND 6000 FEET. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN
THE SPRING MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE IS NOT ABUNDANT WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE
TO ITS INLAND TRACK...BUT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME MODERATE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS CONSIDERING THE INSTABILITY AND DYNAMIC
SUPPORT AS THE LOW SLOWLY CHURNS TO THE EAST. HIGH TEMPS WILL DIP
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE
MOJAVE DESERT REGION.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE AXIS OF THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE OVER SOUTHERN UTAH AND
NORTHERN ARIZONA SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
STILL OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEVADA. THIS WILL KEEP THE POSSIBILITY
OF SHOWERS ACROSS AREAS FROM LAS VEGAS NORTHWARD UNTIL SATURDAY
EVENING. A DRY AND WARMER AIR MASS WILL THEN QUICKLY SPREAD OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE RIDGE FOLLOWED BY A SOUTHWEST
FLOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND ABOVE NORMAL
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS 90 TO 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE MOJAVE
DESERT REGION. &&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH WITH
OCCASIONAL SWINGS TO THE SOUTHEAST UNTIL SETTLING INTO THE USUAL
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DRAINAGE DIRECTION AROUND 03Z. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER NORTH DRIVING A NORTHERLY WIND PUSH
INTO THE VALLEY OVERNIGHT...BUT THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTHERLY ALL DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TERMINAL WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST OVER THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN THROUGH THURSDAY...AND THEN SPREAD AREAWIDE
FRIDAY. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS...LOW CEILINGS...AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. &&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS WEEK ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES. &&
$$
ADAIR/MORGAN
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1001 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL MOVE ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE FRONT BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN TO SOUTHERN NEW
YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY
BRINGING WARM DRY WEATHER. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH-BASED, LIGHT SHOWERS ARE SLIDING EASTWARD TOWARD THE TWIN
TIERS, BUT PROVIDING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL. LATEST HRRR
AND RAP GENERATE QPF TOTALS BELOW PREVIOUS FORECAST, AND EVEN
THESE MIGHT BE TOO HIGH GIVEN THE ONE AND THREE HOUR RAINFALL
RATES DEPICTED FROM THE RADAR.
HAVE LOWERED QPF TOTALS THROUGH SUNRISE AND REDUCED THE POPS.
PREV DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST QUESTION FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE IMPACT OF A SHORT
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF RAIN MOVING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES TOWARD NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHERN NY. THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND SREF ARE ALL IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PA THIS EVENING
WITH LOWER CHANCES FARTHER NORTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. THE IDEA THAT
RAIN MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH VERY FAR EAST OF I-81 IN NY STATE
APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THAT AREA OVERNIGHT. LATEST RADAR
ANIMATIONS ARE ALREADY INDICATING A SLUG OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
MOVING FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO ACROSS SW NY AND NORTHWEST PA. THE
LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATE THAT SOME OF THIS RAIN WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NY THROUGH MID- EVENING REACHING THE
CATSKILLS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THIS SCENARIO IS A BIT FARTHER NORTH
AND EAST THAN SOME OF THE LOWER-RESOLUTION OPERATIONAL MODELS.
BASED ON ALL OF THIS HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT FOR NORTHERN PA AND THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY WITH
JUST CHC POPS FARTHER NORTH. THUNDER CHANCES LOOK LOW WITH NO
INSTABILITY SHOWING UP ON ANY MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BE WEAKENING AND PUSHING SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS
NORTHERN PA AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY COOLER
DAY ACROSS THOSE AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A RETURN TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WARM AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKED GOOD. WARM AND DRY MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND THEN BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
VERY WARM WITH HUMIDITY THIS WEEKEND UNDER A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE JUST OF THE CWA IN SE CANADA
WHICH STAYS THERE ALL OF THE LONG TERM. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS
WHERE THIS SETS UP AND STAYS. MODELS DIFFER ON THIS. WPC LEANS ON
EURO WHICH KEEPS THE BOUNDARY IN CANADA WHILE THE GFS DROPS IT
INTO PA SUN AND MON. HAVE FOLLOWED WPC AND HAVE CHC POPS FAR NORTH
SAT NGT THEN EVERYONE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS
MOVING EAST ALONG THE TWIN TIERS BUT SHOULD GENERALLY BE WEAKENING
WITH TIME. HOWEVER STILL EXPECT THIS TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TONIGHT
TO KELM/KBGM/KAVP WITH A PERIOD OF HIGH END MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE. KITH
SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME SHOWERS BUT REMAIN VFR. THE NORTHERN TWO
SITES, KSYR/KRME, STAY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
.OUTLOOK...
WED NGT-SUN...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...DJP/MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...PCF/TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
734 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL MOVE ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE FRONT BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN TO SOUTHERN NEW
YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY
BRINGING WARM DRY WEATHER. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN FORECAST QUESTION FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE IMPACT OF A SHORT
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF RAIN MOVING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES TOWARD NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHERN NY. THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND SREF ARE ALL IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PA THIS EVENING
WITH LOWER CHANCES FARTHER NORTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. THE IDEA THAT
RAIN MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH VERY FAR EAST OF I-81 IN NY STATE
APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THAT AREA OVERNIGHT. LATEST RADAR
ANIMATIONS ARE ALREADY INDICATING A SLUG OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
MOVING FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO ACROSS SW NY AND NORTHWEST PA. THE
LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATE THAT SOME OF THIS RAIN WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NY THROUGH MID- EVENING REACHING THE
CATSKILLS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THIS SCENARIO IS A BIT FARTHER NORTH
AND EAST THAN SOME OF THE LOWER-RESOLUTION OPERATIONAL MODELS.
BASED ON ALL OF THIS HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT FOR NORTHERN PA AND THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY WITH
JUST CHC POPS FARTHER NORTH. THUNDER CHANCES LOOK LOW WITH NO
INSTABILITY SHOWING UP ON ANY MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BE WEAKENING AND PUSHING SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS
NORTHERN PA AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY COOLER
DAY ACROSS THOSE AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A RETURN TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WARM AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKED GOOD. WARM AND DRY MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND THEN BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
VERY WARM WITH HUMIDITY THIS WEEKEND UNDER A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE JUST OF THE CWA IN SE CANADA
WHICH STAYS THERE ALL OF THE LONG TERM. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS
WHERE THIS SETS UP AND STAYS. MODELS DIFFER ON THIS. WPC LEANS ON
EURO WHICH KEEPS THE BOUNDARY IN CANADA WHILE THE GFS DROPS IT
INTO PA SUN AND MON. HAVE FOLLOWED WPC AND HAVE CHC POPS FAR NORTH
SAT NGT THEN EVERYONE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS MOVING EAST ALONG THE TWIN TIERS BUT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE WEAKENING WITH TIME. HOWEVER STILL EXPECT THIS TO
BRING SOME SHOWERS TONIGHT TO KELM/KBGM/KAVP WITH A PERIOD OF
HIGH END MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE. KITH SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME SHOWERS BUT
REMAIN VFR. THE NORTHERN TWO SITES, KSYR/KRME, STAY VFR THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
.OUTLOOK...
WED NGT-SUN...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...PCF/TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
323 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
FARTHER OFFSHORE INTO MID-WEEK...PROVIDING SEASONABLE MAY
WEATHER. A COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE BAHAMAS
ON WEDNESDAY...DRIFT NORTH THEN MEANDER ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST FROM THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...FIELD OF SHALLOW CU HAS DEVELOPED IN WEST OF
THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AND LIGHT S-SE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BEFORE LIKELY DECOUPLING. THIS WILL BE A GOOD SETUP FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 50S MOST
LOCATIONS. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FEW HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY INLAND WHERE THE TEMP-DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION WILL BE SMALLEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH BERMUDA-LIKE HIGH
CENTERED OFFSHORE...PROVIDING A BALMY EARLY MAY CIRCULATION OF
AIR CLIMATOLOGICALLY INDICATIVE OF THE SEASON. MODERATE CUMULUS
BUILD-UPS SEEMS LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON NEAR AND WEST OF THE
THE AFTERNOON SEA-BREEZE...BUT ARID AIR ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON WILL KEEP MEASURABLE RAIN PROBABILITIES
BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS. MAXIMUMS EITHER SIDE OF 80 DEG WARMEST
OVER THE INTERIOR...AND MINIMUMS UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S EARLY WED
AND 60-65 EARLY THU.
A COASTAL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FAVORED ALONG THE COAST WED NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY...AS LOW-LEVEL WIND DIRECTION AND WINDSPEED
CONVERGENCE INCREASES OFFSHORE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...ALL EYES REMAIN ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH
LOOKS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE
THIS WEEK. NHC HAS ISSUED A SECOND SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL...AND WHILE IT IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY A
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP...THERE IS STILL VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE INTO HOW
IT WILL MOVE ONCE FORMING.
AN AREA OF MOISTURE ALREADY EVIDENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN/BAHAMAS
TODAY WILL CONSOLIDATE AND LIFT SLOWLY NORTH TO OFF THE GA/SC COAST
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED. INITIALLY...THIS SYSTEM WILL FEED OF
BAROCLINICITY AS AN ET-CYCLONE...BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL
TRANSITION TO A WARM CORE SYSTEM BY LATE WEEK AND POSSIBLY TAKE ON
TROPICAL OR SUB-TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THIS IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE
THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT ENTIRELY FAVORABLE FOR BAROTROPIC (WITHOUT
TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS) STRENGTHENING THANKS TO WEAK DIFFLUENCE
ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY ON THE EAST SIDE...AND WATER TEMPS WELL BELOW THE
80F THRESHOLD ONCE YOU GET OUTSIDE THE GULF STREAM. THIS SUGGESTS
THAT A COMBINATION OF BAROTROPIC AND BAROCLINIC FEATURES WILL
DETERMINE THE STRENGTH...HENCE THE LIKELY HYBRID-LOW. THE GUIDANCE
STILL DIVERGES CONSIDERABLY ON THE LOW TRACK THANKS TO WEAK STEERING
FLOW...BUT AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...A TRACK DUE
NORTH SEEMS IMPOSSIBLE WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN THAT DIRECTION.
THUS...A RETROGRADING W OR SW TRACK IS MOST PLAUSIBLE AND SEEMS TO
BE SUPPORTED BY ENSEMBLES.
STILL...THIS CREATES A VERY TRICKY FORECAST WITH A MEANDERING AND
POSSIBLY STRENGTHENING LOW FOR SEVERAL DAYS OFF THE COAST. THE 12Z
GFS BRINGS A PRETTY STRONG LOW INTO CENTRAL SC...BUT THIS IS A NEW
SOLUTION FROM EVEN THE LAST RUN WHICH BROUGHT IT INTO THE GA COAST.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SYSTEM SPINNING JUST OFFSHORE INTO
THE WKND. WHILE IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO DETERMINE WITH ANY SPECIFICITY
THE TRACK AT THIS TIME RANGE...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW UNSETTLED
WEATHER THU-SUN WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN/WIND BEING LATE
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN
THEREAFTER...CONTINUED SCHC/LOW CHC POP IS WARRANTED RIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD BEFORE A TROUGH APPROACHES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL ACT TO FINALLY KICK OUT THE LOW.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE ABOVE CLIMO...BUT OF COURSE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RAIN/CLOUDS COULD HINDER WARMING AND WILL ALSO BE
DEPENDENT ON THIS LOW TRACK. ADDITIONALLY...E/NE WINDS OFF COOL
SHELF WATERS WILL KEEP THE COASTAL AREAS MUCH COOLER THAN WELL
INLAND...SO A LARGE TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA IS POSSIBLE EACH
AFTN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...THE ONLY REAL CONCERN IS THE CONVECTIVE FIELD THAT LOOKS
FAIRLY HEALTHY. HRRR STILL SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON AS DOES THE GFS. WITH COASTAL TERMINALS NOW FIRMLY IN THE
SEA BREEZE SHADOW...FEEL ANY ACTIVITY WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO THE
INLAND TERMINALS. INCREASED THE MVFR FOG FOR CRE AND FLO LATE
TONIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...OTHERWISE VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PRE-DAWN MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY THAT
COULD RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. UNSETTLED WEATHER THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A SUBTROPICAL LOW.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS 10-20 NM OFF THE CAPE FEAR
COAST HAVE STRUGGLED TO SURVIVE AS THEY ENCROACH ON THE RELATIVELY
COOL SHELF WATERS AND ENCOUNTER SOME DOWNWARD MOTION RESULTING FROM
THE SEA BREEZE. IF DISSIPATION TREND CONTINUES WILL PROBABLY NOT
INCLUDE ANY POP FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SE FLOW WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT AROUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL LINGER
OFF THE NC COAST OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...MANAGEABLE MARINE CONDITIONS MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH INCREASING SEA HEIGHTS MAINLY LATE WEDNESDAY AS
OFFSHORE SE-E WINDS BEGIN TO RAMP UP IN RESPONSE TO A BAHAMA
COASTAL LOW DRIFTING NORTH. OTHERWISE...BERMUDA HIGH LIKE WEATHER
WITH 2-3 FOOT SEAS AND AN INCREASE IN WIND GUSTS NEAR SHORE IN THE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. NO
TSTMS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD...BUT SEAS MAY INCREASE TO 4-5 FT LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING MARINE SHOWERS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
POOR MARINE CONDITIONS THANKS TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND POTENTIALLY TAKE ON TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS THU-SAT. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
INTO THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS LOW...BUT IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT
A SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND THEN MEANDER IN THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ATTM...IT APPEARS THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE...AND THIS CREATES E/NE WINDS OF 15-20 KTS
THU/FRI...BEFORE EASING SATURDAY...HOPEFULLY. THIS EXTENDED PERIOD
OF E/NE FETCH COMBINED WITH SWELL GENERATION FROM THE LOW
PRESSURE...WILL DRIVE SEAS UP TO 4-8 FT THU AND FRI...BEFORE
FALLING ON SATURDAY. OF COURSE THIS CAN CHANGE...AND THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR MUCH HIGHER SEAS AS THE WNAWAVE IS SHOWING 16 FT
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY. EITHER WAY...A LONG-
DURATION STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...8
NEAR TERM...CRM
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...SHK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
122 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY OFFSHORE EARLY TO
MID-WEEK...PROVIDING SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE MAY TEMPERATURES. A
COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE BAHAMAS MID-WEEK...AND
MEANDER ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM MONDAY...THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IS RELATIVELY DRY
OVERALL...HOWEVER 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM MHX AND CHS DO SHOW A
LAYER OR MOISTURE JUST BELOW 700 MB. THIS MOISTURE IS EVIDENT IN
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AS A LAYER OF SCATTERED CLOUDS MOVING
SSW AROUND H7-H8 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CLT. WEAK MID-LEVEL
TROFFINESS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE MODEST LOW-
LEVEL RETURN FLOW SETS UP AROUND OFFSHORE SURFACE HIGH. HRRR
INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS INLAND BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE SEA BREEZE...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE THE
LIMITING FACTOR. DO NOT PLAN TO ADD POPS TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW BRIEF...LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA. NO CHANGE NEEDED TO MAX TEMP FORECAST...
WITH AN EXPECTED RANGE OF MID-UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES TO LOW 80S
INLAND.
CONTINUED ON SHORE FLOW TONIGHT AROUND OFFSHORE HIGH WILL SUPPORT
A SLOW RISE IN DEWPOINTS AFTER A DIURNAL DROP THIS AFTERNOON IN
DEEPER MIXING. THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT...BUT STILL DOWN TO 55 TO 60 MOST PLACES
WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
NEAR CALM WINDS. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG AGAIN
TONIGHT AS TEMPS DROP OUT BUT COLUMN WILL BE VERY DRY ABOVE THE
SURFACE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH ON TUESDAY WILL RETREAT WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF DISTURBANCE EMERGING FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND THE BAHAMAS.
MID LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE ABOVE THE BERMUDA HIGH TUE WILL MAINTAIN
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH ONLY PATCHES OF SHALLOW
AFTERNOON CU. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE KEEPING TEMPS NEAR THE
COAST AROUND CLIMO WHILE INLAND AREAS WARM UP A BIT.
SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD STARTS TO GET INTERESTING AS THE SYSTEM
EMERGING FROM THE BAHAMAS WILL TRY AND COALESCE INTO A WELL DEFINED
LOW. THE GOING WILL INITIALLY BE SLOW AND THE LACK OF STEERING FLOW
ALOFT IS LIKELY TO KEEP THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS SYSTEM AND
WHILE IT MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST WED NIGHT...DO NOT THINK IT WOULD DIRECTLY AFFECT THE
REGION BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD. THUS WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY
FORECAST WITH HIGHS AROUND CLIMO AND LOWS A BIT ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE LOW
EVOLVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MID TO LATE WEEK. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...MAINLY DUE TO THE LACK OF
ANY REAL STEERING FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER SOME SOLUTIONS SEEM HARD TO
BUY. FOR INSTANCE THE LOW DEEPENING AND MOVING UP THE COAST SEEMS
THE LEAST LIKELY OUTCOME GIVEN THE 5H RIDGING TO THE NORTH. DO THINK
THE LOW COULD GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THE WATER TEMPS WITHIN THE GULF STREAM ARE AROUND 80 AND
SHEAR SHOULD BE WEAK TO NONEXISTENT THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS THAT
WOULD LIMIT STRENGTHENING. A LACK OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT EARLY IN THE
PERIOD AND THE LARGE SWATH OF SEA SURFACE TEMPS OUTSIDE THE GULF
STREAM IN THE 60S BEING THE BIGGEST. SO WHILE SOME DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED A FULL BLOWN TROPICAL SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE A
LONG SHOT. INSTEAD THE SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY ACQUIRE SOME TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS BUT REMAIN QUITE WEAK AS IT WANDERS OVER THE WATERS
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WORTH NOTING A LOT OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES
TAKE THE WEAK LOW INTO FL OR SOUTHERN GA...SOMETHING WHICH A FAIR
NUMBER OF THE MEMBERS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING OVER THE LAST
FEW DAYS.
LOCALLY IMPACTS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORTHEAST FLOW...WITH
SOME ENHANCEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK AND AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD BRING ABOUT AN INCREASE IN PRECIP
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...AS THE WEEK WEARS ON. GIVEN
THE LOW CONFIDENCE PLAN TO MAKE ONLY SMALL CHANGES TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST WHICH WILL NOW CARRY CHC POP THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...THE ONLY REAL CONCERN IS THE CONVECTIVE FIELD THAT LOOKS
FAIRLY HEALTHY. HRRR STILL SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON AS DOES THE GFS. WITH COASTAL TERMINALS NOW FIRMLY IN THE
SEA BREEZE SHADOW...FEEL ANY ACTIVITY WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO THE
INLAND TERMINALS. INCREASED THE MVFR FOG FOR CRE AND FLO LATE
TONIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...OTHERWISE VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PRE-DAWN MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY THAT
COULD RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. UNSETTLED WEATHER THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A SUBTROPICAL LOW.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM MONDAY...EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS CREEPING WESTWARD
TOWARDS CAPE FEAR TO DIMINISH AS THEY BECOME INFLUENCED BY THE
DOWNWARD COMPONENT OF THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. OTHERWISE...ESE
FLOW WILL BE THE STORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY DUE TO SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE NC COAST. WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN BENIGN THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM
MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW TUE INTO
WED. DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD THE HIGH WILL RETREAT
NORTHEAST AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE EMERGES FROM THE BAHAMAS. WINDS
WILL BACK TO NORTHEAST FOR WED AND WED NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT BUMP IS
SPEED. CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO THE AMOUNT OF STRENGTHENING THE
LOW WILL UNDERGO AND ITS LOCATION IS RATHER LOW AND THUS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS ALSO LOW. FOR NOW KEEPING WIND SPEEDS WED AND WED
NIGHT CONFINED TO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE BUT HIGHER VALUES ARE
POSSIBLE. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT TUE INTO WED SHOULD BUILD LATER WED AS
NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASES AND COASTAL LOW STARTS TO BECOME A LITTLE
MORE DEFINED.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MUCH OF THE FORECAST DEPENDS ON THE DETAILS
OF THE HYBRID TROPICAL SYSTEM MEANDERING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
LATE THIS WEEK. WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT HAS SO FAR BEFUDDLED
GUIDANCE AND NOT CONFIDENT CLARITY WILL DESCEND UPON THE FORECAST
IN THE NEAR TERM. THAT SAID FEEL A FORECAST OF NORTHEAST FLOW IN
THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE IS A GOOD COMPROMISE AND IS IN LINE WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. SEAS WILL BUILD ON THE BACK OF EXTENDED
NORTHEAST FLOW WITH SOME ZONES LIKELY TO EXCEED 6 FT IN PLACES ON
THU AND REMAIN ABOVE 6 FT FRI.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...CRM
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SHK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
723 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY OFFSHORE EARLY TO
MID-WEEK...PROVIDING SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE MAY TEMPERATURES. A
COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE BAHAMAS MID-WEEK...AND
MEANDER ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM MONDAY...DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS FARTHER OFF SHORE WHILE CONTINUING TO RIDGE
BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL PROVIDE A LIGHT RETURN FLOW
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE. TEMPS DROPPING EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL CREATE SOME VERY SHALLOW FOG BUT OVERALL COLUMN WILL
REMAIN VERY DRY WITH ONLY LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A MID TO
UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVERHEAD...BUT A SHORTWAVE RIDING DOWN
FROM THE NW WILL DISRUPT THIS RIDGE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY OVER THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH TROUGH BECOMING
STRETCHED OUT ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH IT WILL PRODUCE SOME PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
THE LIGHT RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SFC HIGH WILL COMBINE WITH
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE TO GIVE IT A STRONG PUSH INLAND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP BUILD SOME AFTERNOON CU. THE
SHORTWAVE SHOULD ACT TO ENHANCE THE VERTICAL GROWTH A BIT...BUT A
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 8-9 K FT WILL CAP OFF THE
CLOUDS AND LIMIT CHC OF SHWRS. THE HRRR TRIES TO GENERATE A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS INLAND THIS AFTERNOON BUT BELIEVE THIS WILL JUST END
UP BEING CLUSTERS OF CU.
HUGE DIURNAL RANGES WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPS STARTING OUT IN THE
MID 50S THIS MORNING AND REACHING UP TO AROUND 80 EXCEPT SLIGHTLY
COOLER AT THE BEACHES. CONTINUED ON SHORE FLOW AROUND HIGH WILL
SUPPORT A SLOW RISE IN DEWPOINTS TONIGHT AFTER A DIURNAL DROP THIS
AFTERNOON IN DEEPER MIXING. THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER...BUT STILL DOWN TO 55 TO 60 MOST PLACES WITH IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM
WINDS. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG AGAIN TONIGHT AS TEMPS
DROP OUT BUT COLUMN WILL BE VERY DRY ABOVE THE SURFACE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH ON TUESDAY WILL RETREAT WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF DISTURBANCE EMERGING FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND THE BAHAMAS.
MID LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE ABOVE THE BERMUDA HIGH TUE WILL MAINTAIN
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH ONLY PATCHES OF SHALLOW
AFTERNOON CU. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE KEEPING TEMPS NEAR THE
COAST AROUND CLIMO WHILE INLAND AREAS WARM UP A BIT.
SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD STARTS TO GET INTERESTING AS THE SYSTEM
EMERGING FROM THE BAHAMAS WILL TRY AND COALESCE INTO A WELL DEFINED
LOW. THE GOING WILL INITIALLY BE SLOW AND THE LACK OF STEERING FLOW
ALOFT IS LIKELY TO KEEP THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS SYSTEM AND
WHILE IT MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST WED NIGHT...DO NOT THINK IT WOULD DIRECTLY AFFECT THE
REGION BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD. THUS WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY
FORECAST WITH HIGHS AROUND CLIMO AND LOWS A BIT ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE LOW
EVOLVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MID TO LATE WEEK. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...MAINLY DUE TO THE LACK OF
ANY REAL STEERING FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER SOME SOLUTIONS SEEM HARD TO
BUY. FOR INSTANCE THE LOW DEEPENING AND MOVING UP THE COAST SEEMS
THE LEAST LIKELY OUTCOME GIVEN THE 5H RIDGING TO THE NORTH. DO THINK
THE LOW COULD GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THE WATER TEMPS WITHIN THE GULF STREAM ARE AROUND 80 AND
SHEAR SHOULD BE WEAK TO NONEXISTENT THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS THAT
WOULD LIMIT STRENGTHENING. A LACK OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT EARLY IN THE
PERIOD AND THE LARGE SWATH OF SEA SURFACE TEMPS OUTSIDE THE GULF
STREAM IN THE 60S BEING THE BIGGEST. SO WHILE SOME DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED A FULL BLOWN TROPICAL SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE A
LONG SHOT. INSTEAD THE SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY ACQUIRE SOME TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS BUT REMAIN QUITE WEAK AS IT WANDERS OVER THE WATERS
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WORTH NOTING A LOT OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES
TAKE THE WEAK LOW INTO FL OR SOUTHERN GA...SOMETHING WHICH A FAIR
NUMBER OF THE MEMBERS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING OVER THE LAST
FEW DAYS.
LOCALLY IMPACTS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORTHEAST FLOW...WITH
SOME ENHANCEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK AND AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD BRING ABOUT AN INCREASE IN PRECIP
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...AS THE WEEK WEARS ON. GIVEN
THE LOW CONFIDENCE PLAN TO MAKE ONLY SMALL CHANGES TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST WHICH WILL NOW CARRY CHC POP THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...PERSISTENCE FORECAST REGARDING AVIATION PURPOSES.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE WX CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY IFR CONDITIONS. SOME MODELS ARE
GENERATING A LITTLE SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA BUT
FEEL ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE TOO ISOLATED IN NATURE TO INCLUDE IN
FORECAST. ADDED A LITTLE BR TO FLO FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PER
OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PRE-DAWN MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY THAT
COULD RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. UNSETTLED WEATHER THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A SUBTROPICAL LOW.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFF SHORE
WHILE CONTINUING TO RIDGE BACK INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.
THEREFORE EXPECT A VERY LIGHT RETURN FLOW TO CONTINUE BASICALLY
OUT OF THE SE-S LESS THAN 10 KTS. SEAS WILL RUN UNDER 3 FT MOST
WATERS WITH A A VERY SLOW DECLINE THROUGH TODAY WITH SUCH LIGHT
WINDS AND DIMINISHING LONGER PERIOD BACKSWELL FROM LOW MOVING OFF
INTO THE DISTANT ATLANTIC WATERS. THE WNA SHOWS LONGER PERIOD
SWELLS DROPPING OFF BY NOON TODAY WITH JUST SHORTER PERIOD WIND
WAVES DOMINATING ESPECIALLY AS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON.
A PERSISTENT LIGHT ON SHORE RETURN FLOW WILL CAUSE A SLIGHT RISE
IN SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT. OVERALL EXPECT BENIGN SEAS AROUND 2 TO 3
FT OR LESS WITH A SLIGHT SPIKE NEAR SHORE IN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW TUE INTO WED. DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD THE HIGH
WILL RETREAT NORTHEAST AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE EMERGES FROM THE
BAHAMAS. WINDS WILL BACK TO NORTHEAST FOR WED AND WED NIGHT WITH A
SLIGHT BUMP IS SPEED. CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO THE AMOUNT OF
STRENGTHENING THE LOW WILL UNDERGO AND ITS LOCATION IS RATHER LOW
AND THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ALSO LOW. FOR NOW KEEPING WIND
SPEEDS WED AND WED NIGHT CONFINED TO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE BUT
HIGHER VALUES ARE POSSIBLE. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT TUE INTO WED SHOULD
BUILD LATER WED AS NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASES AND COASTAL LOW STARTS
TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE DEFINED.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MUCH OF THE FORECAST DEPENDS ON THE DETAILS
OF THE HYBRID TROPICAL SYSTEM MEANDERING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
LATE THIS WEEK. WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT HAS SO FAR BEFUDDLED
GUIDANCE AND NOT CONFIDENT CLARITY WILL DESCEND UPON THE FORECAST
IN THE NEAR TERM. THAT SAID FEEL A FORECAST OF NORTHEAST FLOW IN
THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE IS A GOOD COMPROMISE AND IS IN LINE WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. SEAS WILL BUILD ON THE BACK OF EXTENDED
NORTHEAST FLOW WITH SOME ZONES LIKELY TO EXCEED 6 FT IN PLACES ON
THU AND REMAIN ABOVE 6 FT FRI.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SHK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
636 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY OFFSHORE
EARLY TO MID-WEEK...PROVIDING SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE MAY
TEMPERATURES. A COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE BAHAMAS
MID-WEEK...AND MEANDER ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM MONDAY...DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS FARTHER OFF SHORE WHILE CONTINUING TO RIDGE
BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL PROVIDE A LIGHT RETURN FLOW
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE. TEMPS DROPPING EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL CREATE SOME VERY SHALLOW FOG BUT OVERALL COLUMN WILL
REMAIN VERY DRY WITH ONLY LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A MID TO
UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVERHEAD...BUT A SHORTWAVE RIDING DOWN
FROM THE NW WILL DISRUPT THIS RIDGE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY OVER THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH TROUGH BECOMING
STRETCHED OUT ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH IT WILL PRODUCE SOME PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
THE LIGHT RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SFC HIGH WILL COMBINE WITH
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE TO GIVE IT A STRONG PUSH INLAND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP BUILD SOME AFTERNOON CU. THE
SHORTWAVE SHOULD ACT TO ENHANCE THE VERTICAL GROWTH A BIT...BUT A
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 8-9 K FT WILL CAP OFF THE
CLOUDS AND LIMIT CHC OF SHWRS. THE HRRR TRIES TO GENERATE A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS INLAND THIS AFTERNOON BUT BELIEVE THIS WILL JUST END
UP BEING CLUSTERS OF CU.
HUGE DIURNAL RANGES WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPS STARTING OUT IN THE
MID 50S THIS MORNING AND REACHING UP TO AROUND 80 EXCEPT SLIGHTLY
COOLER AT THE BEACHES. CONTINUED ON SHORE FLOW AROUND HIGH WILL
SUPPORT A SLOW RISE IN DEWPOINTS TONIGHT AFTER A DIURNAL DROP THIS
AFTERNOON IN DEEPER MIXING. THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER...BUT STILL DOWN TO 55 TO 60 MOST PLACES WITH IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM
WINDS. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG AGAIN TONIGHT AS TEMPS
DROP OUT BUT COLUMN WILL BE VERY DRY ABOVE THE SURFACE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH ON TUESDAY WILL RETREAT WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF DISTURBANCE EMERGING FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND THE BAHAMAS.
MID LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE ABOVE THE BERMUDA HIGH TUE WILL MAINTAIN
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH ONLY PATCHES OF SHALLOW
AFTERNOON CU. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE KEEPING TEMPS NEAR THE
COAST AROUND CLIMO WHILE INLAND AREAS WARM UP A BIT.
SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD STARTS TO GET INTERESTING AS THE SYSTEM
EMERGING FROM THE BAHAMAS WILL TRY AND COALESCE INTO A WELL DEFINED
LOW. THE GOING WILL INITIALLY BE SLOW AND THE LACK OF STEERING FLOW
ALOFT IS LIKELY TO KEEP THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS SYSTEM AND
WHILE IT MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST WED NIGHT...DO NOT THINK IT WOULD DIRECTLY AFFECT THE
REGION BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD. THUS WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY
FORECAST WITH HIGHS AROUND CLIMO AND LOWS A BIT ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE LOW
EVOLVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MID TO LATE WEEK. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...MAINLY DUE TO THE LACK OF
ANY REAL STEERING FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER SOME SOLUTIONS SEEM HARD TO
BUY. FOR INSTANCE THE LOW DEEPENING AND MOVING UP THE COAST SEEMS
THE LEAST LIKELY OUTCOME GIVEN THE 5H RIDGING TO THE NORTH. DO THINK
THE LOW COULD GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THE WATER TEMPS WITHIN THE GULF STREAM ARE AROUND 80 AND
SHEAR SHOULD BE WEAK TO NONEXISTENT THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS THAT
WOULD LIMIT STRENGTHENING. A LACK OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT EARLY IN THE
PERIOD AND THE LARGE SWATH OF SEA SURFACE TEMPS OUTSIDE THE GULF
STREAM IN THE 60S BEING THE BIGGEST. SO WHILE SOME DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED A FULL BLOWN TROPICAL SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE A
LONG SHOT. INSTEAD THE SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY ACQUIRE SOME TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS BUT REMAIN QUITE WEAK AS IT WANDERS OVER THE WATERS
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WORTH NOTING A LOT OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES
TAKE THE WEAK LOW INTO FL OR SOUTHERN GA...SOMETHING WHICH A FAIR
NUMBER OF THE MEMBERS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING OVER THE LAST
FEW DAYS.
LOCALLY IMPACTS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORTHEAST FLOW...WITH
SOME ENHANCEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK AND AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD BRING ABOUT AN INCREASE IN PRECIP
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...AS THE WEEK WEARS ON. GIVEN
THE LOW CONFIDENCE PLAN TO MAKE ONLY SMALL CHANGES TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST WHICH WILL NOW CARRY CHC POP THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...NOT MUCH SYNOPTICALLY DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE GIVING US SOUTHEAST FLOW. THERE IS FOG
POTENTIAL AGAIN OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 08Z. CRE STANDS THE BEST
CHANCE AGAIN...BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT INLAND FOG EITHER. DO NOT
THINK WE WILL SEE THE LIFR CONDITIONS THAT WE EXPERIENCED LAST
NIGHT. MONDAY...BECOMING VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS WITH CONTINUED
SOUTHEAST FLOW...STRONGEST ALONG THE COAST.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PRE-DAWN MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY THAT
COULD RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. UNSETTLED WEATHER THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A SUBTROPICAL LOW.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFF SHORE
WHILE CONTINUING TO RIDGE BACK INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.
THEREFORE EXPECT A VERY LIGHT RETURN FLOW TO CONTINUE BASICALLY
OUT OF THE SE-S LESS THAN 10 KTS. SEAS WILL RUN UNDER 3 FT MOST
WATERS WITH A A VERY SLOW DECLINE THROUGH TODAY WITH SUCH LIGHT
WINDS AND DIMINISHING LONGER PERIOD BACKSWELL FROM LOW MOVING OFF
INTO THE DISTANT ATLANTIC WATERS. THE WNA SHOWS LONGER PERIOD
SWELLS DROPPING OFF BY NOON TODAY WITH JUST SHORTER PERIOD WIND
WAVES DOMINATING ESPECIALLY AS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON.
A PERSISTENT LIGHT ON SHORE RETURN FLOW WILL CAUSE A SLIGHT RISE
IN SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT. OVERALL EXPECT BENIGN SEAS AROUND 2 TO 3
FT OR LESS WITH A SLIGHT SPIKE NEAR SHORE IN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW TUE INTO WED. DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD THE HIGH
WILL RETREAT NORTHEAST AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE EMERGES FROM THE
BAHAMAS. WINDS WILL BACK TO NORTHEAST FOR WED AND WED NIGHT WITH A
SLIGHT BUMP IS SPEED. CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO THE AMOUNT OF
STRENGTHENING THE LOW WILL UNDERGO AND ITS LOCATION IS RATHER LOW
AND THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ALSO LOW. FOR NOW KEEPING WIND
SPEEDS WED AND WED NIGHT CONFINED TO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE BUT
HIGHER VALUES ARE POSSIBLE. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT TUE INTO WED SHOULD
BUILD LATER WED AS NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASES AND COASTAL LOW STARTS
TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE DEFINED.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MUCH OF THE FORECAST DEPENDS ON THE DETAILS
OF THE HYBRID TROPICAL SYSTEM MEANDERING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
LATE THIS WEEK. WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT HAS SO FAR BEFUDDLED
GUIDANCE AND NOT CONFIDENT CLARITY WILL DESCEND UPON THE FORECAST
IN THE NEAR TERM. THAT SAID FEEL A FORECAST OF NORTHEAST FLOW IN
THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE IS A GOOD COMPROMISE AND IS IN LINE WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. SEAS WILL BUILD ON THE BACK OF EXTENDED
NORTHEAST FLOW WITH SOME ZONES LIKELY TO EXCEED 6 FT IN PLACES ON
THU AND REMAIN ABOVE 6 FT FRI.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...RGZ/DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
425 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY OFFSHORE
THROUGH EARLY TO MID-WEEK...PROVIDING SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE MAY
TEMPERATURES. A COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE BAHAMAS
MID-WEEK...AND MEANDER ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS FARTHER OFF SHORE WHILE CONTINUING TO RIDGE
BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL PROVIDE A LIGHT RETURN FLOW
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE. TEMPS DROPPING EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL CREATE SOME VERY SHALLOW FOG BUT OVERALL COLUMN WILL
REMAIN VERY DRY WITH ONLY LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A MID TO
UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVERHEAD...BUT A SHORTWAVE RIDING DOWN
FROM THE NW WILL DISRUPT THIS RIDGE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY OVER THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH TROUGH BECOMING
STRETCHED OUT ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH IT WILL PRODUCE SOME PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
THE LIGHT RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SFC HIGH WILL COMBINE WITH
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE TO GIVE IT A STRONG PUSH INLAND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP BUILD SOME AFTERNOON CU. THE
SHORTWAVE SHOULD ACT TO ENHANCE THE VERTICAL GROWTH A BIT...BUT A
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 8-9 K FT WILL CAP OFF THE
CLOUDS AND LIMIT CHC OF SHWRS. THE HRRR TRIES TO GENERATE A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS INLAND THIS AFTERNOON BUT BELIEVE THIS WILL JUST END
UP BEING CLUSTERS OF CU.
HUGE DIURNAL RANGES WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPS STARTING OUT IN THE
MID 50S THIS MORNING AND REACHING UP TO AROUND 80 EXCEPT SLIGHTLY
COOLER AT THE BEACHES. CONTINUED ON SHORE FLOW AROUND HIGH WILL
SUPPORT A SLOW RISE IN DEWPOINTS TONIGHT AFTER A DIURNAL DROP THIS
AFTERNOON IN DEEPER MIXING. THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER...BUT STILL DOWN TO 55 TO 60 MOST PLACES WITH IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM
WINDS. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG AGAIN TONIGHT AS TEMPS
DROP OUT BUT COLUMN WILL BE VERY DRY ABOVE THE SURFACE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH ON TUESDAY WILL RETREAT WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF DISTURBANCE EMERGING FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND THE BAHAMAS.
MID LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE ABOVE THE BERMUDA HIGH TUE WILL MAINTAIN
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH ONLY PATCHES OF SHALLOW
AFTERNOON CU. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE KEEPING TEMPS NEAR THE
COAST AROUND CLIMO WHILE INLAND AREAS WARM UP A BIT.
SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD STARTS TO GET INTERESTING AS THE SYSTEM
EMERGING FROM THE BAHAMAS WILL TRY AND COALESCE INTO A WELL DEFINED
LOW. THE GOING WILL INITIALLY BE SLOW AND THE LACK OF STEERING FLOW
ALOFT IS LIKELY TO KEEP THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS SYSTEM AND
WHILE IT MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST WED NIGHT...DO NOT THINK IT WOULD DIRECTLY AFFECT THE
REGION BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD. THUS WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY
FORECAST WITH HIGHS AROUND CLIMO AND LOWS A BIT ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE LOW
EVOLVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MID TO LATE WEEK. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...MAINLY DUE TO THE LACK OF
ANY REAL STEERING FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER SOME SOLUTIONS SEEM HARD TO
BUY. FOR INSTANCE THE LOW DEEPENING AND MOVING UP THE COAST SEEMS
THE LEAST LIKELY OUTCOME GIVEN THE 5H RIDGING TO THE NORTH. DO THINK
THE LOW COULD GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THE WATER TEMPS WITHIN THE GULF STREAM ARE AROUND 80 AND
SHEAR SHOULD BE WEAK TO NONEXISTENT THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS THAT
WOULD LIMIT STRENGTHENING. A LACK OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT EARLY IN THE
PERIOD AND THE LARGE SWATH OF SEA SURFACE TEMPS OUTSIDE THE GULF
STREAM IN THE 60S BEING THE BIGGEST. SO WHILE SOME DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED A FULL BLOWN TROPICAL SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE A
LONG SHOT. INSTEAD THE SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY ACQUIRE SOME TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS BUT REMAIN QUITE WEAK AS IT WANDERS OVER THE WATERS
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WORTH NOTING A LOT OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES
TAKE THE WEAK LOW INTO FL OR SOUTHERN GA...SOMETHING WHICH A FAIR
NUMBER OF THE MEMBERS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING OVER THE LAST
FEW DAYS.
LOCALLY IMPACTS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORTHEAST FLOW...WITH
SOME ENHANCEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK AND AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD BRING ABOUT AN INCREASE IN PRECIP
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...AS THE WEEK WEARS ON. GIVEN
THE LOW CONFIDENCE PLAN TO MAKE ONLY SMALL CHANGES TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST WHICH WILL NOW CARRY CHC POP THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...NOT MUCH SYNOPTICALLY DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE GIVING US SOUTHEAST FLOW. THERE IS FOG
POTENTIAL AGAIN OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 08Z. CRE STANDS THE BEST
CHANCE AGAIN...BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT INLAND FOG EITHER. DO NOT
THINK WE WILL SEE THE LIFR CONDITIONS THAT WE EXPERIENCED LAST
NIGHT. MONDAY...BECOMING VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS WITH CONTINUED
SOUTHEAST FLOW...STRONGEST ALONG THE COAST.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PRE-DAWN MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY THAT
COULD RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. UNSETTLED WEATHER THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A SUBTROPICAL LOW.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFF SHORE
WHILE CONTINUING TO RIDGE BACK INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.
THEREFORE EXPECT A VERY LIGHT RETURN FLOW TO CONTINUE BASICALLY
OUT OF THE SE-S LESS THAN 10 KTS. SEAS WILL RUN UNDER 3 FT MOST
WATERS WITH A A VERY SLOW DECLINE THROUGH TODAY WITH SUCH LIGHT
WINDS AND DIMINISHING LONGER PERIOD BACKSWELL FROM LOW MOVING OFF
INTO THE DISTANT ATLANTIC WATERS. THE WNA SHOWS LONGER PERIOD
SWELLS DROPPING OFF BY NOON TODAY WITH JUST SHORTER PERIOD WIND
WAVES DOMINATING ESPECIALLY AS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON.
A PERSISTENT LIGHT ON SHORE RETURN FLOW WILL CAUSE A SLIGHT RISE
IN SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT. OVERALL EXPECT BENIGN SEAS AROUND 2 TO 3
FT OR LESS WITH A SLIGHT SPIKE NEAR SHORE IN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW TUE INTO WED. DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD THE HIGH
WILL RETREAT NORTHEAST AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE EMERGES FROM THE
BAHAMAS. WINDS WILL BACK TO NORTHEAST FOR WED AND WED NIGHT WITH A
SLIGHT BUMP IS SPEED. CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO THE AMOUNT OF
STRENGTHENING THE LOW WILL UNDERGO AND ITS LOCATION IS RATHER LOW
AND THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ALSO LOW. FOR NOW KEEPING WIND
SPEEDS WED AND WED NIGHT CONFINED TO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE BUT
HIGHER VALUES ARE POSSIBLE. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT TUE INTO WED SHOULD
BUILD LATER WED AS NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASES AND COASTAL LOW STARTS
TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE DEFINED.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MUCH OF THE FORECAST DEPENDS ON THE DETAILS
OF THE HYBRID TROPICAL SYSTEM MEANDERING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
LATE THIS WEEK. WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT HAS SO FAR BEFUDDLED
GUIDANCE AND NOT CONFIDENT CLARITY WILL DESCEND UPON THE FORECAST
IN THE NEAR TERM. THAT SAID FEEL A FORECAST OF NORTHEAST FLOW IN
THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE IS A GOOD COMPROMISE AND IS IN LINE WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. SEAS WILL BUILD ON THE BACK OF EXTENDED
NORTHEAST FLOW WITH SOME ZONES LIKELY TO EXCEED 6 FT IN PLACES ON
THU AND REMAIN ABOVE 6 FT FRI.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...RGZ/DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
936 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015
CONTINUED THE TREND OF DELAYING THE HIGHER POPS. WILL LIKELY SEE
SURGES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ENTERING THE SOUTHERN FA...ATTEMPTING
TO STAY ALIVE UNTIL THEY REACH CANADA...BUT LIKELY DISSIPATING AS
THEY OUTRUN THE STRONGER FORCING. THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
SHOULD OCCUR WED AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE UPPER LOW
IS CLOSER TO THE REGION.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015
SLOWED DOWN THE HIGHER POPS UNTIL MORE AFTER 12Z...AND EVEN THAT
MAY NOT BE SLOW ENOUGH. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RAP/HRRR THERE
WILL BE AN INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS (NOW ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA) THAT
MOVES INTO NORTH DAKOTA AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES
AS IT MOVES INTO A DRIER AIRMASS. THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
LIKELY OCCUR/MOVE INTO THE REGION AFTER 12Z IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
STRONGER 850MB JET. THE LATEST RAP SUGGESTS THIS MAY NOT OCCUR
UNTIL AFTER 15Z ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA...AND EVEN LATER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FA. IF THESE MODEL TRENDS HOLD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WILL CONSIDER UPDATING POPS FURTHER WITH THE 9PM-10PM
UPDATE. IT IS GOING TO RAIN...BUT THIS RAIN MAY BE DELAYED A BIT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE RAIN MOVING IN LATE
TONIGHT AND HOLDING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THU NIGHT. AS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...STILL REMAINING MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S.
ACTUALLY SEEING A 40F DEW POINT VALUE NOW AT ELBOW LAKE...SO THE
MOISTURE IS SLOWLY EXPANDING NORTHWARD. WILL SEE THE CLOUDS
EXPANDING SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT AS WELL WITH THE SLOWLY RISING
DEW POINTS. SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR THESE
REASONS. THE GUSTY S-SE WINDS SHOULD TAPER OFF A BIT OVERNIGHT SO
THE DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS SHOULD ABATE BY EARLY EVENING. THE
NEXT WAVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
UP TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT WITH STEADY SOUTH WINDS. HOW FAST ANY
PCPN ACTUALLY MAKES IT INTO THE FA WILL BE THE MAIN QUESTION.
MODELS REALLY DO NOT SHOW A LOT OF FORCING TONIGHT AND THEREFORE
WILL PROBABLY NOT SEE MUCH PCPN ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND UNTIL
CLOSER TO WED MORNING. WILL LEAVE LOW PCPN CHANCES SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 TO BLEND WITH ADJACENT OFFICES. SEE A MUCH BETTER
PUSH OF 850MB WINDS ON WED HELPING TO CONTINUE THE MOISTURE SURGE.
NOT A LOT OF INSTABILITY THROUGH THE DAY BUT WILL LEAVE THE
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER. SFC LOW TRACKS UP TOWARD KABR BY 12Z
THU WITH MODELS INDICATING SOMEWHAT OF A DRY SLOT TO THE SW. STILL
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA SO WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER WORDING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015
SFC BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PUSH FROM WEST TO EAST ON THU AS WELL
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS PICKING UP BEHIND IT. MODELS DISAGREE
ON HOW FAST THE PCPN WILL END WITH THE 12Z NAM LINGERING HEAVIER
AMOUNTS OF PCPN THE LONGEST. THEREFORE ITS STORM TOTAL PCPN IS
MUCH HEAVIER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. OTHER SOLUTIONS SHOW HALF INCH
TO ONE INCH AMOUNTS WITH A LITTLE MORE OR LESS IN SOME AREAS.
AFTER THE PCPN ENDS THU NIGHT IT LOOKS NOTICEABLY COOLER FOR FRI.
FOR FRI NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE
NEXT UPPER LOW MODELS FORECAST TO LIFT INTO THE FA LATER SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DIFFERENCES OF COURSE HOWEVER LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR RESPECTABLE RAINFALL ACROSS AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA DEPENDENT ON SURFACE LOW TRACK. DRY
AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS INITIALLY IN PERIOD WITH RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING LATER SUNDAY AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST. WITH DIFFERING SOLUTIONS CHANCE POPS SEEM REASONABLE AT
THIS POINT. MINIMAL T POTENTIAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RANGE BLO AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL REMAIN VFR. MVFR (POSSIBLY IFR) CIGS
WILL INVADE THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY MORNING. -RA
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE WED MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1034 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY CHANGES WERE TO TREND
POPS LOWER OVER THE SOUTHWEST TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS EARLIER HAVE
DISSIPATED. THUS DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. WILL KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. LATEST
NAM AND RAP INDICATE ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE BY
EVENING...THUS DROPPED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF EVENING POPS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 851 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015
QUICK UPDATE TO END THE FROST ADVISORY. TEMPERATURES QUICKLY
RISING THIS MORNING. MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
ARE MOSTLY IN THE 40S ALREADY. OTHERWISE ONLY SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND POPULATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER
ELEMENTS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015
MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER THIS MORNING WITH
CLEAR SKIES TO THE NORTH. BOWMAN RADAR SHOWS A COUPLE OF SHOWERS
IN WESTERN BOWMAN COUNTY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
ALSO UPDATED AND TRIMMED THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THURSDAY AS
THE CAPE SHUNTS OFF TO THE EAST LEAVING THE WEST AND CENTRAL
MAINLY STABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015
FOR THE NEAR TERM...MAIN HIGHLIGHT IS THE FROST ADVISORY THROUGH 9AM
CDT MONDAY. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
ISOLATED SPOTS OF UPPER 20S AROUND HAZEN TO GLEN ULLIN. OVERALL THE
FROST ADVISORY IS VERIFYING AND WILL CONTINUE AS SCHEDULED.
IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS UNDERGOING A
CHANGE...FROM WESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS PLENTY OF MOISTURE LOCATED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
JET BRANCH AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST CONUS BEGINS TO
SLOWLY ADVANCE NORTHEAST. CURRENTLY...STILL ENOUGH OF A WESTERLY
UPPER FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TO SHUNT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE OFF TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...TWO SHORTWAVES
EARLY THIS MORNING ARE LEADING THE CHANGE TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
UPPER FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA. THE SHORTWAVES ARE LOCATED ACROSS
WYOMING...ONE IN NORTHWEST AND THE SECOND SHORTWAVE IN THE
NORTHEAST. LIGHT RAIN PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL RADAR
WAS OCCURRING OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING AND SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.
FOR TODAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...A
BUILDING 700MB RIDGE AXIS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY UNDER A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY/LIGHT WINDS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR
SOUTHWEST TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVES...BUT
DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS VERTICAL MOTION GETS SQUASHED AS
THE SHORTWAVES APPROACH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 20 AND 35 MPH. WITH
THE ADVECTION OF MOISTURE AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE FAR
SOUTHWEST TODAY...THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST WILL
COINCIDE WITH ELEVATED MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF AROUND 35
PERCENT. THE WEAKEST WINDS...AROUND 10 MPH...WILL COINCIDE WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 PERCENT. THUS NO FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES TODAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
LEVELS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED MONDAY NIGHT AS THE 700MB RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND MINNESOTA. HOWEVER NO
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES/PRECIPITATION FORECAST THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015
GFS/ECMWF LOOK IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE REASONABLE RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY AS WELL. MODELS MOVE AN H500 LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA
EAST AS A LARGE H500 TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS THE WESTERN US
BEGINNING TUESDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS SOME H500 ENERGY KICKS OUT
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND MOVES NORTH AND EAST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND WILL SEE A COOLDOWN AS THE H500 TROUGH MOVES
OVER THE REGION AND AN H850 THERMAL TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE
REGION SAT/SUNDAY PERIOD. REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER FRIDAY DO TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY. GFS TEMPERATURES MAY
BE COOL ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SAT NIGHT BUT DO NOT WANT TO
MAKE TOO MUCH OF THIS AS THE ECMWF IS WARMER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
60S TO LOWER 70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN 50S AND 60S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND IN THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 851 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015
VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
623 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
CENTRAL OHIO AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL
THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY. THE LOCAL AREA WILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
TWEAKED TIMING OF PRECIP AND REMOVED MENTION OF TSRA FOR THIS
EVENING. BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS FROM WEST TO EAST. THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS ENCOUNTERING A LOT OF DRY AIR AHEAD
OF THE PRECIPITATION. THIS IS HELPING TO REDUCE THE SHOWER POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE AREA EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES EXCEEDED THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE OF 74 DEGREES BY SEVERAL DEGREES. EXPECTING THE SHOWERS
TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH QPF AMOUNTS AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR LESS THIS EVENING. THE FRONT EVENTUALLY BEGINS TO STALL
JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY MORNING. DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY
OF THE FRONT TO THE AREA...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO DIP BACK INTO THE 50S
FOR LOWS NORTH. HOWEVER...SINCE SOUTHERN PORTIONS WILL TAKE THEIR
TIME IN GETTING INTO THE COLDER AIR...LOWS ONCE AGAIN WILL BE AROUND
60 OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL SET UP A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DOWN THE SPINE OF
LAKE ERIE INTO NORTHWEST OHIO. THIS WILL CAUSE COLD AIR ADVECTION
OFF THE LAKE AS COLD DOME OF AIR MOVES INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE COOLER IN TOLEDO AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE FOR
HIGHS ON TUESDAY. AWAY FROM THE LAKE...AIR MASS IS NOT ALL THAT
COLD SO WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 70S. LAKE BREEZE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKE SHORE AND
THIS WILL KEEP THE LAKE SHORE AREAS COOLER AS WELL.
AS STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA...THREAT FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
SO WILL KEEP A MENTION GOING THROUGH THE DAY. FINALLY...FRONT BEGINS
TO LIFT NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND WE SHOULD SEE A
REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. ALTHOUGH...GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK AND LAKE BREEZE WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AGAIN KNOCKING DOWN TEMPERATURES ALONG THE SHORE.
THE BEST SURGE OF WARM AIR TAKES PLACE ON THURSDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
RESUMES IN THE WARM SECTOR THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WARM FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD
SIDE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THREATS FOR PRECIPITATION ARE MINIMIZED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AS MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS IN FRIDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN DECENT
AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO
PA WITH A TROF MOVING EAST THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BE A MILD/WARM
PATTERN FOR NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA WITH SLY/SWLY FLOW OUT OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FLOW LOOKS BEST ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO ON FRIDAY SO WILL PUT A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE GRIDS. MESOSCALE FORCING COULD HELP AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORMS DEVELOP ALONG ANY LAKE BREEZE BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT. NO
BIG CHANGES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO MICHIGAN. MOISTURE CONTINUE TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST. WOULD EXPECT MORE
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL HAVE
CHANCE POPS FOR ALL. MANUAL PROGS HAVE THE FRONT BECOMING MORE
EAST/WEST AND STALLING JUST TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FRONT LIFTS A BIT NORTH FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES ENE. WILL HAVE CONTINUED CHANCE
POPS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY FOR WHAT WILL LIKELY BE
INCREASING DIURNAL ACTIVITY. AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER
SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES AFFECTING KTOL AND
SOON TO BE AFFECTING KFDY. ISOLATED MVFR WITHIN THE SHOWERS. THESE
SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON REACHING KCLE-
KMFD 20-2030Z. EXPECTING A COUPLE HOURS OF SHOWERS WITH THE LINE.
ALTHOUGH EMBEDDED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE LEFT OUT FOR THE TIME BEING
AS CAPES ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CAPES. FOLLOWING THE HRRR AFTER
THE LINE WE SHOULD GET A BREAK FOR SEVERAL HOURS FOLLOWED BY AN
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM
WAVE AND THE OVERRUNNING OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH DROP INTO THE
AREA LATE. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DROP TO MVFR SECOND HALF OF THE
NIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. NON VFR FOR TUESDAY
MORNING.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
MODELS SHOW A WEAK GRADIENT IN GENERAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SO
AM EXPECTING WINDS FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FOR TONIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TURN NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES AND A COLD FRONT DROPS
ACROSS LAKE ERIE. EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LAST INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT LIFTS BACK ACROSS THE LAKE AS A WARM FRONT
TURNING WINDS SOUTHEAST. THURSDAY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY EXPECT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...DJB/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
302 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
CENTRAL OHIO AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL
THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY. THE LOCAL AREA WILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS FROM WEST TO EAST. THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS ENCOUNTERING A LOT OF DRY AIR AHEAD
OF THE PRECIPITATION. THIS IS HELPING TO REDUCE THE SHOWER POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE AREA EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES EXCEEDED THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE OF 74 DEGREES BY SEVERAL DEGREES. EXPECTING THE SHOWERS
TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH QPF AMOUNTS AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR LESS THIS EVENING. THE FRONT EVENTUALLY BEGINS TO STALL
JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY MORNING. DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY
OF THE FRONT TO THE AREA...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO DIP BACK INTO THE 50S
FOR LOWS NORTH. HOWEVER...SINCE SOUTHERN PORTIONS WILL TAKE THEIR
TIME IN GETTING INTO THE COLDER AIR...LOWS ONCE AGAIN WILL BE AROUND
60 OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL SET UP A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DOWN THE SPINE OF
LAKE ERIE INTO NORTHWEST OHIO. THIS WILL CAUSE COLD AIR ADVECTION
OFF THE LAKE AS COLD DOME OF AIR MOVES INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE COOLER IN TOLEDO AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE FOR
HIGHS ON TUESDAY. AWAY FROM THE LAKE...AIR MASS IS NOT ALL THAT
COLD SO WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 70S. LAKE BREEZE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKE SHORE AND
THIS WILL KEEP THE LAKE SHORE AREAS COOLER AS WELL.
AS STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA...THREAT FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
SO WILL KEEP A MENTION GOING THROUGH THE DAY. FINALLY...FRONT BEGINS
TO LIFT NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND WE SHOULD SEE A
REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. ALTHOUGH...GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK AND LAKE BREEZE WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AGAIN KNOCKING DOWN TEMPERATURES ALONG THE SHORE.
THE BEST SURGE OF WARM AIR TAKES PLACE ON THURSDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
RESUMES IN THE WARM SECTOR THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WARM FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD
SIDE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THREATS FOR PRECIPITATION ARE MINIMIZED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AS MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS IN FRIDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN DECENT
AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO
PA WITH A TROF MOVING EAST THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BE A MILD/WARM
PATTERN FOR NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA WITH SLY/SWLY FLOW OUT OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FLOW LOOKS BEST ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO ON FRIDAY SO WILL PUT A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE GRIDS. MESOSCALE FORCING COULD HELP AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORMS DEVELOP ALONG ANY LAKE BREEZE BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT. NO
BIG CHANGES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO MICHIGAN. MOISTURE CONTINUE TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST. WOULD EXPECT MORE
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL HAVE
CHANCE POPS FOR ALL. MANUAL PROGS HAVE THE FRONT BECOMING MORE
EAST/WEST AND STALLING JUST TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FRONT LIFTS A BIT NORTH FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES ENE. WILL HAVE CONTINUED CHANCE
POPS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY FOR WHAT WILL LIKELY BE
INCREASING DIURNAL ACTIVITY. AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER
SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES AFFECTING KTOL AND
SOON TO BE AFFECTING KFDY. ISOLATED MVFR WITHIN THE SHOWERS. THESE
SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON REACHING KCLE-
KMFD 20-2030Z. EXPECTING A COUPLE HOURS OF SHOWERS WITH THE LINE.
ALTHOUGH EMBEDDED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE LEFT OUT FOR THE TIME BEING
AS CAPES ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CAPES. FOLLOWING THE HRRR AFTER
THE LINE WE SHOULD GET A BREAK FOR SEVERAL HOURS FOLLOWED BY AN
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM
WAVE AND THE OVERRUNNING OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH DROP INTO THE
AREA LATE. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DROP TO MVFR SECOND HALF OF THE
NIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. NON VFR FOR TUESDAY
MORNING.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
MODELS SHOW A WEAK GRADIENT IN GENERAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SO
AM EXPECTING WINDS FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FOR TONIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TURN NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES AND A COLD FRONT DROPS
ACROSS LAKE ERIE. EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LAST INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT LIFTS BACK ACROSS THE LAKE AS A WARM FRONT
TURNING WINDS SOUTHEAST. THURSDAY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY EXPECT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
129 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC TODAY WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH ACROSS MICHIGAN. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE AREA AND STALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN LIFT BACK AS A
WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPERATURES ARE RISING WELL INTO THE 70S AT THIS TIME. BUMPED
TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE DEGREES INTO THE LOWER 80S EAST OF THE
CLOUD COVER. BUMPED TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE EXTREME WEST WHERE
SHOWERS HAVE ARRIVED. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS AS THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN OHIO THIS EVENING. THE PUSH OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR GETS AS
FAR SOUTH AS LAKE ERIE...WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS WEAKENING OVERHEAD.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DECREASING TREND TO THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TONIGHT. THE NEXT ROUND OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY AND SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN. LOWERED
HIGHS ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTH AS WINDS DEVELOP OFF LAKE ERIE
AND SUFFICIENT CLOUD COVER HAS A LIMITING EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES.
A FEW OF THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY STILL REACH THE MID 70S.
THE RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD ALOFT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WHICH SHOULD BRING AN END TO CONVECTION. WILL HOLD ONTO THE LOW
20-30 PERCENT POPS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESIDE AT THAT TIME. BY THURSDAY WE
RETURN TO HAVING A DRY FORECAST AS THE CAP STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD. THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK EARLY THURSDAY WHICH SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...STRONG HEATING AND THE POTENTIAL OF SOME CONVERGENCE
ALONG A LAKE BREEZE AND OVER THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WE WILL NEED TO
MENTION SOME THUNDER IN THE GRIDS. SINCE HEIGHTS ALOFT ARE RATHER
HIGH IT WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF ANY OF THE THUNDER. BY SATURDAY A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO INCREASE THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST. A LAKE BOUNDARY
MAY ALSO IGNITE A FEW STORMS ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. THERE SHOULD
BE A LULL IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT PASSES.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST.
IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80. COOLER NEAR THE
LAKESHORE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER
SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES AFFECTING KTOL AND
SOON TO BE AFFECTING KFDY. ISOLATED MVFR WITHIN THE SHOWERS. THESE
SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON REACHING KCLE-
KMFD 20-2030Z. EXPECTING A COUPLE HOURS OF SHOWERS WITH THE LINE.
ALTHOUGH EMBEDDED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE LEFT OUT FOR THE TIME BEING
AS CAPES ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CAPES. FOLLOWING THE HRRR AFTER
THE LINE WE SHOULD GET A BREAK FOR SEVERAL HOURS FOLLOWED BY AN
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM
WAVE AND THE OVERRUNNING OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH DROP INTO THE
AREA LATE. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DROP TO MVFR SECOND HALF OF THE
NIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. NON VFR FOR TUESDAY
MORNING.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING. THESE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD
BE IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE LARGER WAVES
OF 2 TO 3 FEET ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS. WINDS AND WAVES WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS OVER NORTHERN OR CENTRAL OHIO. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL PRODUCE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
THROUGH THURSDAY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS IN THE 5 TO
10 KNOT RANGE BUT SOME LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS...MAYBE UP TO 15
KNOTS...ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS WILL LIKELY OCCUR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...MULLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
438 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC TODAY WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH ACROSS MICHIGAN. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE AREA AND STALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN LIFT BACK AS A
WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE PLAINS...ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TOWARDS NORTHERN QUEBEC. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
ONGOING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST OVERNIGHT WHERE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ALOFT IS INTERACTING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY. COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED OVER THE
LAST HOUR WITH A LIMITED AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THE CHALLENGE FOR
TODAY IS DETERMINING WHAT EFFECT THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL HAVE
ON TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA.
AS OF 4 AM...A LEADING AREA OF SHOWERS WAS LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN WHILE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING
SOUTH ACROSS MICHIGAN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE RUC SHOWS THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST OHIO BETWEEN 13-16Z
WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME LEADING SHOWERS DURING THE LATE MORNING
TOWARDS TOLEDO. SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING COULD ALSO BE TRIGGERED
BY THE UPSTREAM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR PERHAPS THE REMNANTS OF AN MCV
FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. DEWPOINTS
WILL START THE DAY IN THE 40S AND WILL MOISTEN AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH APPROACHES. THE LOW DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP INSTABILITY ON THE
LOWER SIDE UNTIL LATER TODAY. UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINS WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA SO SHEAR WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MOST OF NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO IN THE MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WHICH IS REASONABLE. NOT EXPECTING MORE
THAN A COUPLE SOMEWHAT STRONG STORM THOUGH. TWEAKED HIGHS DOWN A
DEGREE OR TWO IN NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED...EVEN THIS MORNING. AREAS FARTHER EAST WILL SEE MORE SUN
BEFORE THE CLOUDS ARRIVE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS AS THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN OHIO THIS EVENING. THE PUSH OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR GETS AS
FAR SOUTH AS LAKE ERIE...LEAVING A WEAKENING INSTABILITY AXIS
OVERHEAD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DECREASING TREND TO THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TONIGHT. THE NEXT ROUND OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY AND SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN. LOWERED HIGHS
ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTH AS WINDS DEVELOP OFF LAKE ERIE AND
SUFFICIENT CLOUD COVER HAS A LIMITING EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES. A FEW
OF THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY STILL REACH THE MID 70S.
THE RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD ALOFT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WHICH SHOULD BRING AN END TO CONVECTION. WILL HOLD ONTO THE LOW
20-30 PERCENT POPS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESIDE AT THAT TIME. BY THURSDAY WE
RETURN TO HAVING A DRY FORECAST AS THE CAP STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD. THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK EARLY THURSDAY WHICH SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...STRONG HEATING AND THE POTENTIAL OF SOME CONVERGENCE
ALONG A LAKE BREEZE AND OVER THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WE WILL NEED TO
MENTION SOME THUNDER IN THE GRIDS. SINCE HEIGHTS ALOFT ARE RATHER
HIGH IT WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF ANY OF THE THUNDER. BY SATURDAY A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO INCREASE THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST. A LAKE BOUNDARY
MAY ALSO IGNITE A FEW STORMS ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. THERE SHOULD
BE A LULL IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT PASSES.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST.
IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80. COOLER NEAR THE
LAKESHORE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
MOVE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND WILL SPREAD SOME
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS TO THE REGION FOR TODAY. BELIEVE THE
INITIAL SURGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY THIS MORNING AS IT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE INTO NW OHIO.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE NEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DRIFT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN THE CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP AND HAVE A 6 HOUR WINDOW OF TIME WHEN THE THUNDER MAY
OCCUR (VCTS). HOWEVER WE DID ATTEMPT TO PROVIDE A BEST 2 HOUR WINDOW FOR
CONVECTION FOR EACH LOCATION. THIS 2 HOUR WINDOW IS WHERE WE
PLACED THE IFR CONDITIONS.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING. THESE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD
BE IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE LARGER WAVES
OF 2 TO 3 FEET ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS. WINDS AND WAVES WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS OVER NORTHERN OR CENTRAL OHIO. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL PRODUCE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
THROUGH THURSDAY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS IN THE 5 TO
10 KNOT RANGE BUT SOME LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS...MAYBE UP TO 15
KNOTS...ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS WILL LIKELY OCCUR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
721 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE
THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
RADAR SHOWS THE MOST ORGANIZED CONVECTION NORTH OF I-80...IN AN
AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE JUST NORTH OF A WEAK AND DIFFUSE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND POTENTIALLY EVEN INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS THIS EAST-WEST AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALL THE WAY BACK TO ILLINOIS. NAM ARW AND NMM CONCENTRATE MOST
SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE HRRR CREATES
WHAT LOOKS LIKE AN ORGANIZED MCS AND DROPS IT SE INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 06-09Z. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE HRRR HAS BEEN
TRYING TO INITIATE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FOR THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS...LITTLE OF WHICH HAS ACTUALLY FIRED OFF.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH TO MID AND UPPER 50S OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WAVY BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE STATE WILL KEEP SCT SHOWERS
SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA DURING THE PERIOD. HIEST CHANCE OF PCPN IS
LIKELY TO BE OVER WRN AND NRN MTNS...CLOSER TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EMERGING FROM THE PLAINS. SCT SHRA ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY ALLOW MORE SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTN. NOT SO SURE ON COVERAGE AT THIS POINT...BUT BEST CHCS WILL
BE IN THE SW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY AND UP AGAINST THE
MORE-MOIST WNW 8H FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN WITH SHOWERS DECREASING
IN CVRG OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL PA WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD
TO WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION THU-SUN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN
UPTICK IN POPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST NDFD POPS ARE MON-TUE.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES DROPS OFF TO AVG BY THIS TIME WITH
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SOMEWHAT AT ODDS WITH RESPECT TO MAINTAINING
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE VS. A COOLER MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.
OVERALL HAVE NOT DEVIATED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE AND FAVORED MORE OF A MIXED BLEND FOR DAYS 7 AND 8.
SUBTROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO
STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR
ONSHORE FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL FOCUS ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONT
DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO PA OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDS WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
LAUREL HIGHLANDS BY LATE TONIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE IN AREAS OF
FOG OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS BUT VFR MUCH OF THE TIME.
OUTLOOK...
THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.
FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.
SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
704 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE
THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
RADAR SHOWS THE MOST ORGANIZED CONVECTION NORTH OF I-80...IN AN
AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE JUST NORTH OF A WEAK AND DIFFUSE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND POTENTIALLY EVEN INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS THIS EAST-WEST AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALL THE WAY BACK TO ILLINOIS. NAM ARW AND NMM CONCENTRATE MOST
SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE HRRR CREATES
WHAT LOOKS LIKE AN ORGANIZED MCS AND DROPS IT SE INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 06-09Z. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE HRRR HAS BEEN
TRYING TO INITIATE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FOR THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS...LITTLE OF WHICH HAS ACTUALLY FIRED OFF.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH TO MID AND UPPER 50S OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WAVY BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE STATE WILL KEEP SCT SHOWERS
SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA DURING THE PERIOD. HIEST CHANCE OF PCPN IS
LIKELY TO BE OVER WRN AND NRN MTNS...CLOSER TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EMERGING FROM THE PLAINS. SCT SHRA ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY ALLOW MORE SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTN. NOT SO SURE ON COVERAGE AT THIS POINT...BUT BEST CHCS WILL
BE IN THE SW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY AND UP AGAINST THE
MORE-MOIST WNW 8H FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN WITH SHOWERS DECREASING
IN CVRG OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL PA WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD
TO WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION THU-SUN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN
UPTICK IN POPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST NDFD POPS ARE MON-TUE.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES DROPS OFF TO AVG BY THIS TIME WITH
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SOMEWHAT AT ODDS WITH RESPECT TO MAINTAINING
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE VS. A COOLER MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.
OVERALL HAVE NOT DEVIATED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE AND FAVORED MORE OF A MIXED BLEND FOR DAYS 7 AND 8.
SUBTROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO
STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR
ONSHORE FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL FOCUS ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONT
DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO PA OVERNIGHT. SITES SHOULD BE VFR MUCH OF
THE TIME INTO THIS EVENING...THEN DROP TO MVFR IN SHOWERS LATER
THIS EVENING THEN CONTINUE IN AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW
WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS BUT VFR MUCH
OF THE TIME.
OUTLOOK...
THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.
FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.
SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1254 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015
CHALLENGING FORECAST LOOKS TO BEGIN WITH CHALLENGING SHORT TERM.
OVERNIGHT...HAVE SEEN THE STRONG SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLE
INTO FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...AS MUCH DRIER AIR HAS
INVADED FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. SEVERAL CONTRADICTING
FACTORS TO THE SHORT TERM PRECIPITATION FORECAST. FIRST...VERY FEW
SOLUTIONS HAVE AMPLE HANDLE ON THE DRY AIR INTRUSION AT LOWEST
LEVELS...WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S OVER ALL BUT THE
EXTREME SOUTHEAST CWA. SECOND...THE DEGREE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA IS LACKING IN SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS...WHICH IS EVIDENT GIVEN RECENT UPTAKE IN SCATTERED BANDED
CONVECTION FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST
IOWA FORCED IN BROAD JET ENTRANCE REGION. THIRD...DEALING WITH
TYPICAL BATTLE OF LOWER VERSUS HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS. LARGE SCALE
SYNOPTIC TREND IS FOR LOWER LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE TO SETTLE FURTHER
SOUTHWARD OVER LAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. HOWEVER...SOME QUESTION AS
TO HOW MUCH FURTHER THE MID LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE GIVEN THE
PROXIMITY OF UPPER LEVEL JET ENTRANCE REGION PASSING ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS GENERALLY MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
NORTHWARD SPREAD OF PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...SHOULD MAKE NOTE THAT
TREND IN RAP HAS BEEN TO ALLOW LESS AND LESS THREAT TO SOUTHERN CWA
THROUGH THE DAY.
EARLY ON THIS MORNING...SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR SOUTH
EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO SHEAR AWAY. WILL SEE
RIDGING BEGIN TO REESTABLISH PRESENCE...BUT BATTLE A SMALL WAVE
WANDERING FROM KANSAS TOWARD EASTERN NEBRASKA LATER IN THE DAY.
CONVECTION SHOULD BREAK OUT CLOSER TO THIS FEATURE AND THE DEEPER
SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY...EXPANDING AND TRENDING TOWARD A MORE EASTWARD
MOTION WITH TIME ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE EXPANDING TOWARD THE SIOUX
CITY AREA LATE DAY. GRADUALLY...THIS WAVE PULLS EASTWARD AND MAY SEE
MOST EXPANSIVE COVERAGE BRUSH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...THEN PROGRESS TOWARD A MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE AS
MID LEVEL WAVE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT PUSHES NORTHWARD WITH DEEPENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW. OVERALL...WILL BE LOOKING FOR THUNDER COVERAGE TO BE
SMALL FRACTION OF THE OVERALL PRECIPITATION...WITH BEST THREAT
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. NO SEVERE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED WITH MINIMAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND GENERALLY WEAK
MID LEVEL FLOW.
TEMPWISE...WILL SET UP FOR FAIRLY DECENT EASTERLY MIXING WITH DRY
AIR...DESPITE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
THE DAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...ON THE WARM
SIDE OF MIXING POTENTIAL DUE TO THE DRY AIR. INCREASING MOISTURE
TONIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WILL DEFINE LOWS UNDER THICKER
CLOUDS...MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015
A RATHER MESSY MEDIUM AND EXTENDED FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR THE
REGION THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL
BE DOMINATED BY LONG WAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE CONUS THIS WEEK...WITH
SEVERAL TROUGHS LIFTING THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE THROUGH WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WILL BE A BROAD UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THAT IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. BY TUESDAY...THIS
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE THE LOW-LVL BAROCLINIC ZONE
NORTHWARD...WITH BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT BRINING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE JUST HOW
WIDESPREAD THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH LATER TONIGHT SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY...ONLY TO
BE REPLACED BY SHORTWAVE RIDGING. AND ADDITIONAL FACTOR IS THE
DEGREE OF DRY AIR REMAINING IN THE SUB-700 MB LAYER. WITH THE LIFT
BROAD IN NATURE...AND MOISTURE LIMITED TO A DEGREE...QPF THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY LOW.
THEN A STRONGER PORTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT INTO THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS ALL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT REMNANT CONVECTION FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ON THE WESTERN
PLAINS WILL LIFT INTO THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
WITH BROAD AND STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSISTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
DAY. MOISTURE TRANSPORT RATHER IMPRESSIVE...BRINGING PWAT VALUES
AROUND 1.5 INCHES INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...A DISTINCT LACK OF
INSTABILITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS SHOULD KEEP QPF DOWN.
DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY MORNING...WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF CLOUDS SCATTERING LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG
INVERTED TROUGH OR DRYLINE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA/KANSAS LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ONCE FORMED...IT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST WITH THE
SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCAPE VALUES COULD CLIMB AS HIGH AS 500-
1000 J/KG WEDNESDAY EVENING AND SHEAR WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. THAT
SAID...FEEL THE GENERAL RISK OF SVR STORMS IS LOW...BUT COULD SEE
MARGINAL OUTLOOK SLIDE A BIT FURTHER NORTH. I WOULD ANTICIPATE
QUITE A BIT OF THUNDER AS THIS ACTIVITY LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
FEEL MOST OF THURSDAY WILL BE DRY...AS UPPER FORCING LIFTS
NORTHEAST. THE UPPER TROUGH COULD LEAVE AN ELONGATED BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THIS FRONT...BUT A DECENT BUILDUP OF INSTABILITY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF IT COULD BE TAPPED INTO SHOULD A WEAK WAVE LIFT
NORTHWARD IN THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT. SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE
MARGINAL...BUT COULD SUPPORT A SEVERE STORM.
FRIDAY MAY BE THE DRIEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED...AS MODELS ARE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT FORMING A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE CONUS. BEYOND FRIDAY...BEGINNING TO LOOK RATHER WET ACROSS
MANY AREAS AS THIS UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT INTO THE PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY GREAT LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH A DRY EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW HOLDING PRECIP CHANCES
LARGELY SOUTH OF THE AREA. EXCEPTION MAY BE A FEW LATE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING SPRINKLES WORKING INTO KSUX AREA...WITH BETTER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRYING TO WORK INTO AREA AFTER 06Z-08Z EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR CEILINGS INTO KSUX ALONG
WITH MAINLY VFR VISIBILITY IN -SHRA AFTER THAT TIME. THE EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25KT UNTIL AROUND SUNSET...THEN
SHOULD DIMINISH TO AROUND 12KT OR LESS AS THEY GRADUALLY SWING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
632 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015
CHALLENGING FORECAST LOOKS TO BEGIN WITH CHALLENGING SHORT TERM.
OVERNIGHT...HAVE SEEN THE STRONG SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLE
INTO FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...AS MUCH DRIER AIR HAS
INVADED FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. SEVERAL CONTRADICTING
FACTORS TO THE SHORT TERM PRECIPITATION FORECAST. FIRST...VERY FEW
SOLUTIONS HAVE AMPLE HANDLE ON THE DRY AIR INTRUSION AT LOWEST
LEVELS...WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S OVER ALL BUT THE
EXTREME SOUTHEAST CWA. SECOND...THE DEGREE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA IS LACKING IN SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS...WHICH IS EVIDENT GIVEN RECENT UPTAKE IN SCATTERED BANDED
CONVECTION FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST
IOWA FORCED IN BROAD JET ENTRANCE REGION. THIRD...DEALING WITH
TYPICAL BATTLE OF LOWER VERSUS HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS. LARGE SCALE
SYNOPTIC TREND IS FOR LOWER LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE TO SETTLE FURTHER
SOUTHWARD OVER LAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. HOWEVER...SOME QUESTION AS
TO HOW MUCH FURTHER THE MID LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE GIVEN THE
PROXIMITY OF UPPER LEVEL JET ENTRANCE REGION PASSING ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS GENERALLY MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
NORTHWARD SPREAD OF PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...SHOULD MAKE NOTE THAT
TREND IN RAP HAS BEEN TO ALLOW LESS AND LESS THREAT TO SOUTHERN CWA
THROUGH THE DAY.
EARLY ON THIS MORNING...SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR SOUTH
EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO SHEAR AWAY. WILL SEE
RIDGING BEGIN TO REESTABLISH PRESENCE...BUT BATTLE A SMALL WAVE
WANDERING FROM KANSAS TOWARD EASTERN NEBRASKA LATER IN THE DAY.
CONVECTION SHOULD BREAK OUT CLOSER TO THIS FEATURE AND THE DEEPER
SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY...EXPANDING AND TRENDING TOWARD A MORE EASTWARD
MOTION WITH TIME ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE EXPANDING TOWARD THE SIOUX
CITY AREA LATE DAY. GRADUALLY...THIS WAVE PULLS EASTWARD AND MAY SEE
MOST EXPANSIVE COVERAGE BRUSH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...THEN PROGRESS TOWARD A MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE AS
MID LEVEL WAVE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT PUSHES NORTHWARD WITH DEEPENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW. OVERALL...WILL BE LOOKING FOR THUNDER COVERAGE TO BE
SMALL FRACTION OF THE OVERALL PRECIPITATION...WITH BEST THREAT
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. NO SEVERE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED WITH MINIMAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND GENERALLY WEAK
MID LEVEL FLOW.
TEMPWISE...WILL SET UP FOR FAIRLY DECENT EASTERLY MIXING WITH DRY
AIR...DESPITE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
THE DAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...ON THE WARM
SIDE OF MIXING POTENTIAL DUE TO THE DRY AIR. INCREASING MOISTURE
TONIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WILL DEFINE LOWS UNDER THICKER
CLOUDS...MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015
A RATHER MESSY MEDIUM AND EXTENDED FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR THE
REGION THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL
BE DOMINATED BY LONG WAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE CONUS THIS WEEK...WITH
SEVERAL TROUGHS LIFTING THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE THROUGH WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WILL BE A BROAD UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THAT IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. BY TUESDAY...THIS
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE THE LOW-LVL BAROCLINIC ZONE
NORTHWARD...WITH BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT BRINING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE JUST HOW
WIDESPREAD THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH LATER TONIGHT SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY...ONLY TO
BE REPLACED BY SHORTWAVE RIDGING. AND ADDITIONAL FACTOR IS THE
DEGREE OF DRY AIR REMAINING IN THE SUB-700 MB LAYER. WITH THE LIFT
BROAD IN NATURE...AND MOISTURE LIMITED TO A DEGREE...QPF THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY LOW.
THEN A STRONGER PORTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT INTO THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS ALL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT REMNANT CONVECTION FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ON THE WESTERN
PLAINS WILL LIFT INTO THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
WITH BROAD AND STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSISTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
DAY. MOISTURE TRANSPORT RATHER IMPRESSIVE...BRINGING PWAT VALUES
AROUND 1.5 INCHES INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...A DISTINCT LACK OF
INSTABILITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS SHOULD KEEP QPF DOWN.
DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY MORNING...WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF CLOUDS SCATTERING LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG
INVERTED TROUGH OR DRYLINE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA/KANSAS LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ONCE FORMED...IT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST WITH THE
SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCAPE VALUES COULD CLIMB AS HIGH AS 500-
1000 J/KG WEDNESDAY EVENING AND SHEAR WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. THAT
SAID...FEEL THE GENERAL RISK OF SVR STORMS IS LOW...BUT COULD SEE
MARGINAL OUTLOOK SLIDE A BIT FURTHER NORTH. I WOULD ANTICIPATE
QUITE A BIT OF THUNDER AS THIS ACTIVITY LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
FEEL MOST OF THURSDAY WILL BE DRY...AS UPPER FORCING LIFTS
NORTHEAST. THE UPPER TROUGH COULD LEAVE AN ELONGATED BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THIS FRONT...BUT A DECENT BUILDUP OF INSTABILITY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF IT COULD BE TAPPED INTO SHOULD A WEAK WAVE LIFT
NORTHWARD IN THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT. SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE
MARGINAL...BUT COULD SUPPORT A SEVERE STORM.
FRIDAY MAY BE THE DRIEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED...AS MODELS ARE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT FORMING A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE CONUS. BEYOND FRIDAY...BEGINNING TO LOOK RATHER WET ACROSS
MANY AREAS AS THIS UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT INTO THE PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY GREAT LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS POTENTIAL AND TIMING DEVELOPMENT
OF ELEVATED CONVECTION FOR KFSD AND KSUX. STRONG WAVE WILL MOVE
FROM KANSAS TO EASTERN NEBRASKA BY LATE AFTERNOON. ELEVATED
CONVECTION WILL SPREAD NORTH AND EAST TODAY...EXPECTED TO SPREAD
LATE AFTERNOON INTO SIOUX CITY. OVERALL ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS
FAIRLY WEAK...SO STUCK WITH MENTION OF SHOWERS WITH PEAK MENTION
BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z. THERE WILL STILL BE A THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER EVEN AFTER 04Z FOR KSUX...
BUT SHOULD DIMINISH TO A MORE SCATTERED THREAT LATER INTO THE
NIGHT. FOR KHON...THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL LATE IN PERIOD AND HAVE
NOT INCLUDED IN TAF.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...CHAPMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
402 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015
CHALLENGING FORECAST LOOKS TO BEGIN WITH CHALLENGING SHORT TERM.
OVERNIGHT...HAVE SEEN THE STRONG SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLE
INTO FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...AS MUCH DRIER AIR HAS
INVADED FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. SEVERAL CONTRADICTING
FACTORS TO THE SHORT TERM PRECIPITATION FORECAST. FIRST...VERY FEW
SOLUTIONS HAVE AMPLE HANDLE ON THE DRY AIR INTRUSION AT LOWEST
LEVELS...WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S OVER ALL BUT THE
EXTREME SOUTHEAST CWA. SECOND...THE DEGREE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA IS LACKING IN SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS...WHICH IS EVIDENT GIVEN RECENT UPTAKE IN SCATTERED BANDED
CONVECTION FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST
IOWA FORCED IN BROAD JET ENTRANCE REGION. THIRD...DEALING WITH
TYPICAL BATTLE OF LOWER VERSUS HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS. LARGE SCALE
SYNOPTIC TREND IS FOR LOWER LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE TO SETTLE FURTHER
SOUTHWARD OVER LAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. HOWEVER...SOME QUESTION AS
TO HOW MUCH FURTHER THE MID LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE GIVEN THE
PROXIMITY OF UPPER LEVEL JET ENTRANCE REGION PASSING ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS GENERALLY MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
NORTHWARD SPREAD OF PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...SHOULD MAKE NOTE THAT
TREND IN RAP HAS BEEN TO ALLOW LESS AND LESS THREAT TO SOUTHERN CWA
THROUGH THE DAY.
EARLY ON THIS MORNING...SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR SOUTH
EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO SHEAR AWAY. WILL SEE
RIDGING BEGIN TO REESTABLISH PRESENCE...BUT BATTLE A SMALL WAVE
WANDERING FROM KANSAS TOWARD EASTERN NEBRASKA LATER IN THE DAY.
CONVECTION SHOULD BREAK OUT CLOSER TO THIS FEATURE AND THE DEEPER
SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY...EXPANDING AND TRENDING TOWARD A MORE EASTWARD
MOTION WITH TIME ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE EXPANDING TOWARD THE SIOUX
CITY AREA LATE DAY. GRADUALLY...THIS WAVE PULLS EASTWARD AND MAY SEE
MOST EXPANSIVE COVERAGE BRUSH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...THEN PROGRESS TOWARD A MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE AS
MID LEVEL WAVE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT PUSHES NORTHWARD WITH DEEPENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW. OVERALL...WILL BE LOOKING FOR THUNDER COVERAGE TO BE
SMALL FRACTION OF THE OVERALL PRECIPITATION...WITH BEST THREAT
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. NO SEVERE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED WITH MINIMAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND GENERALLY WEAK
MID LEVEL FLOW.
TEMPWISE...WILL SET UP FOR FAIRLY DECENT EASTERLY MIXING WITH DRY
AIR...DESPITE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
THE DAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...ON THE WARM
SIDE OF MIXING POTENTIAL DUE TO THE DRY AIR. INCREASING MOISTURE
TONIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WILL DEFINE LOWS UNDER THICKER
CLOUDS...MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015
A RATHER MESSY MEDIUM AND EXTENDED FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR THE
REGION THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL
BE DOMINATED BY LONG WAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE CONUS THIS WEEK...WITH
SEVERAL TROUGHS LIFTING THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE THROUGH WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WILL BE A BROAD UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THAT IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. BY TUESDAY...THIS
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE THE LOW-LVL BAROCLINIC ZONE
NORTHWARD...WITH BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT BRINING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE JUST HOW
WIDESPREAD THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH LATER TONIGHT SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY...ONLY TO
BE REPLACED BY SHORTWAVE RIDGING. AND ADDITIONAL FACTOR IS THE
DEGREE OF DRY AIR REMAINING IN THE SUB-700 MB LAYER. WITH THE LIFT
BROAD IN NATURE...AND MOISTURE LIMITED TO A DEGREE...QPF THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY LOW.
THEN A STRONGER PORTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT INTO THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS ALL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT REMNANT CONVECTION FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ON THE WESTERN
PLAINS WILL LIFT INTO THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
WITH BROAD AND STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSISTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
DAY. MOISTURE TRANSPORT RATHER IMPRESSIVE...BRINGING PWAT VALUES
AROUND 1.5 INCHES INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...A DISTINCT LACK OF
INSTABILITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS SHOULD KEEP QPF DOWN.
DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY MORNING...WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF CLOUDS SCATTERING LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG
INVERTED TROUGH OR DRYLINE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA/KANSAS LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ONCE FORMED...IT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST WITH THE
SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCAPE VALUES COULD CLIMB AS HIGH AS 500-
1000 J/KG WEDNESDAY EVENING AND SHEAR WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. THAT
SAID...FEEL THE GENERAL RISK OF SVR STORMS IS LOW...BUT COULD SEE
MARGINAL OUTLOOK SLIDE A BIT FURTHER NORTH. I WOULD ANTICIPATE
QUITE A BIT OF THUNDER AS THIS ACTIVITY LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
FEEL MOST OF THURSDAY WILL BE DRY...AS UPPER FORCING LIFTS
NORTHEAST. THE UPPER TROUGH COULD LEAVE AN ELONGATED BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THIS FRONT...BUT A DECENT BUILDUP OF INSTABILITY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF IT COULD BE TAPPED INTO SHOULD A WEAK WAVE LIFT
NORTHWARD IN THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT. SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE
MARGINAL...BUT COULD SUPPORT A SEVERE STORM.
FRIDAY MAY BE THE DRIEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED...AS MODELS ARE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT FORMING A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE CONUS. BEYOND FRIDAY...BEGINNING TO LOOK RATHER WET ACROSS
MANY AREAS AS THIS UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT INTO THE PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY GREAT LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015
MAIN FOCUS IS CONVECTION THIS EVENING. FOR KHON...CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO BE VFR THROUGH 00Z TUE. FOR KFSD...ALSO EXPECTING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH PERIOD WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF TO 10 TO 15 KTS
AFTER 02Z. SMALL CONCERN THAT HIGH RES MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
CONVECTION DEVELOPING BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z AND NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS DO
SHOW INSTABILITY ABOVE 800 MB. AT THIS POINT...PROBABILITY IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR STORMS LATER
TONIGHT. FOR KSUX...IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF STORMS THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH NO EVIDENCE ON SATELLITE
OR RADAR THAT STORMS ARE IMMINENT SO HAVE WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAF
AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...SIMILAR ISSUE TO KFSD IN THAT HI-RES
MODELS MOVE THESE STORMS NEAR KSUX BETWEEN 05Z AND 09Z TONIGHT.
AGAIN...PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF. NEXT ROUND OF RAIN
WILL BE APPROACHING KSUX AROUND 00Z. AT THIS POINT...BETTER
CHANCES AFTER 00Z TUESDAY SO KEPT CONDITIONS VFR.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1047 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015
.UPDATE...
EARLIER EVENING MODEL RUNS OF RAP AND HRRR DEPICTED A MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND SHORT-TERM FLASH FLOOD THREAT ALONG I-35 BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST AND NORTH. MID EVENING RUNS ARE NOW HOLDING BACK THE
HIGHER QPF VALUES CLOSER TO I-35 AND KEEPING A SUSTAINED THREAT
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. AREAS FARTHER TO THE EAST WERE INCLUDED IN
CASE THE TRAINING AREA SOLIDIFIES INTO A COMPLEX AS HAS BEEN
SUGGESTED IN A RECENT NCEP MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION. THE
HRRR CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A FEW STORMS FOLLOWING RIGHT MOVING
SUPERCELL PATHS...SO THERE MAY STILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS. HOWEVER...WILL DISCREDIT MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
SEVERE THREAT FOR NOW AS THIS BEHAVIOR IS NOT SUGGESTED BY
EVENING RADAR TRENDS OR SPC MESOANALYSIS TOOLS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 819 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/
UPDATE... /LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE E OF 281...N OF I-10/
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONCENTRATING ALONG A
CONVEYOR BELT OF GULF MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF
AN UPPER LOW LIFTING NE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FINER RESOLUTION
MODELS HAVE SHOWN INCREASED RAINFALL INTENSITIES AND QPF OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL TX...WITH INITIAL SOLUTIONS WIDELY VARIED EARLY
TODAY...NOW CONVERGING INTO THE WEAK TRAINING ECHO PATTERN SEEN
THIS EVENING. FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS WILL LIKELY CONCENTRATE
ACTIVITY ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 INTO LATE TONIGHT. POPS WERE
INCREASED OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN SECTIONS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MENTIONED. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK...BUT MAY NEED TO MAKE A LATE EVENING ADJUSTMENT TO POPS
SHOULD THE TRAINING PATTERN SHIFT OR DIMININISH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH FLOODING THREATS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO BE TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT A FFA.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/
UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 THIS
EVENING. WE HAVE INCLUDED -SHRA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR...THEN TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSRA BETWEEN 03Z-06Z. FOR
NOW...WE DID NOT INCLUDE A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION AT KDRT AS IT
APPEARS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ISOLATED. CIGS WILL DROP INTO IFR
OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN IFR THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF WEDNESDAY
MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING WILL IMPROVE SKIES BACK TO VFR
AFTER 18Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO THE BIG BEND WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE 250MB JET
WAS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...BUT WAS LESS THAN 50 KTS. THE JET
MARKED THE BOUNDARY OF MOIST MID-LEVEL AIR TO THE SOUTH AND DRIER
AIR TO THE NORTH. AT THE SURFACE WINDS CONTINUED FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AND DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WERE FROM THE LOW TO UPPER
60S. THERE WAS A DRYLINE FROM CHILDRESS TO MARATHON. IN THE PRE-
FIRST PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE
DRYLINE AND ARE MOVING TOWARD THE EAST. SOME STORMS MAY MOVE INTO
OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. STORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO MOISTURE
RICH ENVIRONMENT AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. FORECAST CAPE IS 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. SOME STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL THE MOST LIKELY THREAT.
DURING THE FIRST PERIOD STARTING THIS EVENING...THE FOUR CORNERS
TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
FLATTEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE RIDGE. ANOTHER LOW WILL DIG SOUTHWARD
OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
TEXAS. THE LOW LEVELS WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING. THE DRYLINE WILL REMAIN OVER WEST
TEXAS AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE STRONG
MOIST FLOW WILL KEEP THE DRYLINE WEST OF OUR CWA. WE WILL HAVE
ANOTHER LOW CHANCE DAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITHOUT ANY STRONG
TRIGGER. WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 70 THERE WILL BE
STRONG INSTABILITY AND ONLY A WEAK CAP. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. SPC HAS THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR AREA IN
THE MARGINAL RISK FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD OVER THE WEST COAST
THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TO THE EAST FRIDAY AND
THEN TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN
SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE ONLY SURFACE FEATURE
WILL BE THE DRYLINE TO THE WEST AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST KEEPING IT THERE. THIS WILL MEAN
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LOW CHANCE POPS WITH A CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...BUT NOT TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION. INSTABILITY
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG STORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS
MAY PROVIDE A BETTER FOCUS FOR STORMS OVER A WIDER AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 70 83 71 84 70 / 70 30 20 30 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 70 83 71 84 71 / 70 30 20 30 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 69 83 71 84 71 / 70 30 20 30 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 67 82 69 82 69 / 60 30 20 30 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 70 84 71 89 71 / 30 30 30 20 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 69 82 70 83 69 / 70 30 20 30 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 69 84 71 85 70 / 40 30 20 30 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 69 83 71 84 70 / 70 30 20 30 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 70 83 72 85 72 / 60 30 20 20 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 69 84 71 84 71 / 50 30 20 30 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 70 84 72 85 71 / 50 20 20 30 20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BASTROP...CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...FAYETTE...
GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...LAVACA...LEE...TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
356 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TO ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE LOW MOVING ACROSS
NEW MEXICO TUESDAY WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO DIMINISH...WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND A
DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP AND KEEP THE AREA DRY.
AFTERNOONS WILL BECOME BREEZY...BUT DESPITE THIS...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW NOW JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. HAS NOT BEGUN
TO ENTRAIN MUCH MOISTURE SO HARD TO SEE. DRY SLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
AREA BUT SO DOES A 130 KT JET WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES. THIS SHOULD BE
GOOD ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WINDS LIKELY MAIN HAZARD AGAIN. LATEST HRRR SHOWS DCAPES OF
UP TO 850 J/KG. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS SLIGHTLY LESS THAN SUNDAY BUT
STILL AROUND 50 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUST POTENTIAL LOOKS TO
BE 40-50 MPH WITH ANY STORMS/SHOWERS. LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND/OR
HIGH DEW POINTS SHOULD PRECLUDE HEAVY RAINFALL...MAYBE .25 - .50
INCHES WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
UPPER LOW TO WESTERN NEW MEXICO TUESDAY MID DAY AND THEN OVER THE
COLORADO ROCKIES BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS LOW PASSAGE AND WEAK
PACIFIC SURFACE FRONT WILL HELP TO SCOUR OUT MOISTURE SOME. MODELS
STILL SHOWING JUST ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO KICK
OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAIN ZONES. OTHERWISE POPS OUT
FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AHEAD OF A WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS AND PERSISTS INTO THE
WEEKEND. AFTERNOONS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. DESPITE THIS PATTERN HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 04/12Z-05/12Z...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE PERIOD. WEAK
DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH BASED SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AFTER 20Z WITH 26015G25KT SCT-BKN080-100
PREVAILING. -TSRA SCT-BKN080CB POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND AT
KTCS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL MOVE PAST THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST FROM THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY HIGH BASED
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE FIRE ZONES. INITIALLY MOST OF THE SHOWERS
WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE WHICH WILL PRODUCE
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACTUAL WETTING PRECIP WILL
BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AS WELL AS THE FAR EASTERN
FIRE ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MIN RH VALUES WILL RUN ABOUT 2O PERCENT FOR THE LOWLANDS AND 30
PERCENT FOR THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. AS DEEP WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
TUESDAY MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP ABOUT 5 PERCENT WITH AN ADDITIONAL 5
PERCENT DECLINE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AHEAD. AS ANOTHER STRONGER
UPPER STORM APPROACHES LATE WEEK STRONGER AFTERNOON SURFACE WINDS
WILL DEVELOP WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE
THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 86 60 82 58 85 / 10 10 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 83 54 82 54 84 / 10 20 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 83 51 81 50 84 / 10 10 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 83 54 81 53 84 / 20 30 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 62 42 60 39 62 / 50 30 30 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 81 50 79 50 82 / 20 20 10 0 0
SILVER CITY 73 46 69 46 72 / 20 20 20 0 0
DEMING 83 48 81 48 84 / 10 10 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 81 48 80 48 82 / 20 10 10 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 85 60 82 59 85 / 10 10 0 0 0
DELL CITY 85 54 81 52 84 / 20 30 20 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 87 56 83 55 87 / 10 20 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 79 58 78 57 79 / 10 20 0 0 0
FABENS 86 55 82 54 85 / 10 20 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 85 55 82 54 85 / 10 10 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 82 58 81 57 83 / 20 20 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 83 50 81 48 83 / 20 10 0 0 0
HATCH 83 50 82 49 84 / 20 10 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 81 54 81 53 83 / 10 10 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 84 57 82 57 83 / 20 20 0 0 0
MAYHILL 71 48 70 46 71 / 50 40 30 0 0
MESCALERO 71 45 70 43 70 / 50 40 30 0 0
TIMBERON 70 47 69 45 70 / 50 30 20 0 0
WINSTON 69 44 72 41 73 / 30 20 30 0 0
HILLSBORO 78 48 78 47 80 / 20 20 20 0 0
SPACEPORT 82 49 81 48 83 / 20 20 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 72 44 70 42 72 / 30 20 30 0 0
HURLEY 74 47 70 45 73 / 10 20 20 0 0
CLIFF 80 42 76 42 80 / 20 10 30 0 0
MULE CREEK 76 39 74 40 78 / 20 10 30 0 0
FAYWOOD 75 47 75 47 78 / 10 20 20 0 0
ANIMAS 80 48 81 49 83 / 20 10 0 0 0
HACHITA 81 47 81 48 83 / 10 10 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 80 46 80 48 82 / 10 10 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 76 47 76 48 78 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
HEFNER/LANEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1129 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015
A CHECK OF THE I-80 WEBCAMS INDICATED THAT THE DENSE FOG WAS
LIFTING BETWEEN CHEYENNE AND LARAMIE...ESPECIALLY AT THE SUMMIT.
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM...WITH
AREAS OF FOG LINGERING THRU THE LATE MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 459 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015
WEBCAMS ALONG INTERSTATE 80 HAVE SHOWN VIS REALLY COMING DOWN FROM
THE SUMMIT TO JUST EAST OF BUFORD. MOIST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND HRRR SHOWS LIFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING IN THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND TO THE EAST OF THE
ALBANY-LARAMIE COUNTY LINE THROUGH 16Z. THUS...WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT THE FOG WILL BE QUITE PERSISTENT THROUGH MID
MORNING...DECIDED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THRU 16Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015
THE GFS AND NAM BOTH PROG A WEAK MID LEVEL VORT MAX MOVING INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH MID
MORNING. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME WEAK ECHOES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN COLORADO (GENERALLY MOVING NORTHWARD)...BUT NO LIGHTNING
OR STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS. WHILE THESE SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO
AREAS ALONG INTERSTATE 80 THROUGH MID MORNING...ANY ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE LIGHT. WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...LOW LEVEL
WINDS OVER THE PLAINS ARE TURNING TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THE
HRRR HAS LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTER 10-11Z ALONG THE CHEYENNE
RIDGE FROM THE INTERSTATE 80 SUMMIT TO CHEYENNE. WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE...THESE LOWER CIGS AND VIS PERSIST THROUGH 18Z. THUS...KEPT
THE MENTION OF FOG GOING THROUGH THE ENTIRE MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND 15 DEGREES COOLER TODAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE IN THE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS. THE AIR MASS IS RATHER
STABLE WITH LI VALUES GENERALLY ABOVE 0C...THUS AFTN CONVECTION WILL
BE QUITE LIMITED. A BETTER CHANCE OF TSTMS WILL EXIST TO THE WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE. WHILE AN ISOLATED HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNT IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY...THE MODELS REALLY DO NOT SHOW MUCH
QPF WITH THE INCREASED STABILITY.
ON TUESDAY LOW CLOUDS WILL BE MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT
ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE MORNING OR EVEN EARLY AFTN WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG ONCE AGAIN MAINLY ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE.
SUBTROPICAL MID LEVEL LOW OVER ARIZONA TODAY WILL PROGRESS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO COLORADO ON TUESDAY. COOLING ALOFT AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH INCREASING PW VALUES (UP TO 1.0 INCHES
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE BY TUESDAY AFTN)...WILL PROMOTE A MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ON
TUESDAY AFTN AND EVENING OVER THE PANHANDLE WHERE THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THE BEST FORCING. SPC DOES HAVE THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON
TUESDAY...HOWEVER WITH RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...ONLY
SMALL HAIL WOULD BE A CONCERN. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY WED WITH SFC WINDS BECOMING NORTH TO
NORTHWEST OVER MUCH OF THE CWA BY THE AFTN. KEPT THE 40-50 PERCENT
POPS GOING DURING THE AFTN AS RATHER HIGH PW VALUES (0.75-1.0
INCHES) ARE SHOWN ACROSS THE PLAINS ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015
ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES WITH DAILY RAIN/THUNDER
CHANCES ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF A WINTER WEATHER EVENT FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FIRST LOW LOOKS TO TRACK OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND WE SHOULD BE SEEING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMING TO AN END BY LATE EVENING.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY.
REMARKABLY STRONG AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THE
MOVEMENT OF THE SECOND LOW THROUGH THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BOTH BRING THE LOW THROUGH SOUTHERN NEVADA FRIDAY...WITH
IT EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT. BOTH
SHOW -4 TO POSSIBLY -6C TEMPERATURES AT 700MB SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WHICH WOULD TURN RAIN OVER TO SNOW FOR MANY LOCATIONS
ABOVE 6000 FEET. NEED TO BE WATCHING FOR WINTER HEADLINES FOR
POSSIBLE HEAVY SNOW THIS WEEKEND. WE WILL CERTAINLY BE MONITORING
THIS LOW AS IT DRAWS CLOSER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015
MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT KCYS THIS AFTERNOON THEN
LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE MAINLY
VFR WITH SCTD SHOWERS INTO THIS EVENING...THEN LOWERING TO MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH LOWERED VSBYS IN AREAS OF FOG.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015
A COOL AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL MEAN MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEK. AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY...WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AND WETTING RAINS. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...ZF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1003 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015
A CHECK OF THE I-80 WEBCAMS INDICATED THAT THE DENSE FOG WAS
LIFTING BETWEEN CHEYENNE AND LARAMIE...ESPECIALLY AT THE SUMMIT.
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM...WITH
AREAS OF FOG LINGERING THRU THE LATE MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 459 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015
WEBCAMS ALONG INTERSTATE 80 HAVE SHOWN VIS REALLY COMING DOWN FROM
THE SUMMIT TO JUST EAST OF BUFORD. MOIST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND HRRR SHOWS LIFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING IN THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND TO THE EAST OF THE
ALBANY-LARAMIE COUNTY LINE THROUGH 16Z. THUS...WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT THE FOG WILL BE QUITE PERSISTENT THROUGH MID
MORNING...DECIDED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THRU 16Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015
THE GFS AND NAM BOTH PROG A WEAK MID LEVEL VORT MAX MOVING INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH MID
MORNING. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME WEAK ECHOES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN COLORADO (GENERALLY MOVING NORTHWARD)...BUT NO LIGHTNING
OR STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS. WHILE THESE SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO
AREAS ALONG INTERSTATE 80 THROUGH MID MORNING...ANY ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE LIGHT. WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...LOW
LEVELWINDS OVER THE PLAINS ARE TURNING TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST. THE HRRR HAS LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTER 10-11Z
ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE FROM THE INTERSTATE 80 SUMMIT TO
CHEYENNE. WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE...THESE LOWER CIGS AND VIS
PERSIST THROUGH 18Z. THUS...KEPT THE MENTION OF FOG GOING THROUGH
THE ENTIRE MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES COOLER TODAY
FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE IN THE POST FRONTAL
AIR MASS. THE AIR MASS IS RATHER STABLE WITH LI VALUES GENERALLY
ABOVE 0C...THUS AFTN CONVECTION WILL BE QUITE LIMITED. A BETTER
CHANCE OF TSTMS WILL EXIST TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WHILE
AN ISOLATED HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDDAY
TUESDAY...THE MODELS REALLY DO NOT SHOW MUCH QPF WITH THE
INCREASE STABILITY.
ON TUESDAY LOW CLOUDS WILL BE MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT
ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE MORNING OR EVEN EARLY AFTN WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG ONCE AGAIN MAINLY ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE.
SUBTROPICAL MID LEVEL LOW OVER ARIZONA TODAY WILL PROGRESS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO COLORADO ON TUESDAY. COOLING ALOFT AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH INCREASING PW VALUES (UP TO 1.0 INCHES
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE BY TUESDAY AFTN)...WILL PROMOTE A MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ON
TUESDAY AFTN AND EVENING OVER THE PANHANDLE WHERE THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THE BEST FORCING. SPC DOES HAVE THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON
TUESDAY...HOWEVER WITH RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...ONLY
SMALL HAIL WOULD BE A CONCERN. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY WED WITH SFC WINDS BECOMING NORTH TO
NORTHWEST OVER MUCH OF THE CWA BY THE AFTN. KEPT THE 40-50 PERCENT
POPS GOING DURING THE AFTN AS RATHER HIGH PW VALUES (0.75-1.0
INCHES) ARE SHOWN ACROSS THE PLAINS ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015
ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES WITH DAILY RAIN/THUNDER
CHANCES ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF A WINTER WEATHER EVENT FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FIRST LOW LOOKS TO TRACK OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND WE SHOULD BE SEEING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMING TO AN END BY LATE EVENING.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY.
REMARKABLY STRONG AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THE
MOVEMENT OF THE SECOND LOW THROUGH THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BOTH BRING THE LOW THROUGH SOUTHERN NEVADA FRIDAY...WITH
IT EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT. BOTH
SHOW -4 TO POSSIBLY -6C TEMPERATURES AT 700MB SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WHICH WOULD TURN RAIN OVER TO SNOW FOR MANY LOCATIONS
ABOVE 6000 FEET. NEED TO BE WATCHING FOR WINTER HEADLINES FOR
POSSIBLE HEAVY SNOW THIS WEEKEND. WE WILL CERTAINLY BE MONITORING
THIS LOW AS IT DRAWS CLOSER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 459 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015
IMPACTS TODAY WILL BE LOW CONDITIONS AROUND KCYS THIS MORNING IN
UPSLOPE FOG/STRATUS...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY. HRRR USED FOR KCYS AND SHOWS IFR/LIFR
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPING SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. ALREADY SEEING DENSE FOG
JUST WEST OF KCYS. LOOKS TO STAY IFR/LIFR THROUGH 18Z BEFORE
LIFTING. MORE WIDESPREAD LOW CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015
A COOL AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL MEAN MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEK. AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY...WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AND WETTING RAINS. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...ZF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
507 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 459 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015
WEBCAMS ALONG INTERSTATE 80 HAVE SHOWN VIS REALLY COMING DOWN FROM
THE SUMMIT TO JUST EAST OF BUFORD. MOIST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND HRRR SHOWS LIFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING IN THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND TO THE EAST OF THE
ALBANY-LARAMIE COUNTY LINE THROUGH 16Z. THUS...WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT THE FOG WILL BE QUITE PERSISTENT THROUGH MID
MORNING...DECIDED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THRU 16Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015
THE GFS AND NAM BOTH PROG A WEAK MIDLVL VORT MAX MOVING INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH MID
MORNING. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME WEAK ECHOES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN COLORADO (GENERALLY MOVING NORTHWARD)...BUT NO LIGHTNING
OR STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS. WHILE THESE SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO
AREAS ALONG INTERSTATE 80 THROUGH MID MORNING...ANY ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE LIGHT. WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...LLVL
WINDS OVER THE PLAINS ARE TURNING TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THE
HRRR HAS LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTER 10-11Z ALONG THE
CHEYENNE RIDGE FROM THE INTERSTATE 80 SUMMIT TO CHEYENNE. WITH
GOOD LLVL UPSLOPE...THESE LOWER CIGS AND VIS PERSIST THROUGH 18Z.
THUS...KEPT THE MENTION OF FOG GOING THROUGH THE ENTIRE MORNING.
TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES COOLER TODAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS. THE AIRMASS
IS RATHER STABLE WITH LI VALUES GENERALLY ABOVE 0C...THUS AFTN
CONVECTION WILL BE QUITE LIMITED. A BETTER CHANCE OF TSTMS WILL
EXIST TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WHILE AN ISOLATED HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDDAY TUES...THE MODELS
REALLY DO NOT SHOW MUCH QPF WITH THE INCREASE STABILITY.
ON TUES LOW CLOUDS WILL BE MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT
ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE MORNING OR EVEN EARLY AFTN WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG ONCE AGAIN MAINLY ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE.
SUBTROPICAL MIDLVL LOW OVER ARIZONA TODAY WILL PROGRESS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO COLORADO ON TUES. COOLING ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE ALONG WITH INCREASING PW VALUES (UP TO 1.0 INCHES ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE BY TUES AFTN)...WILL PROMOTE A MORE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ON TUES AFTN
AND EVENING OVER THE PANHANDLE WHERE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THE BEST FORCING. SPC DOES HAVE THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR STORMS ON TUES...HOWEVER WITH
RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...ONLY SMALL HAIL WOULD BE A
CONCERN. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
BY WED WITH SFC WINDS BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHWEST OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA BY THE AFTN. KEPT THE 40-50 PERCENT POPS GOING DURING THE AFTN
AS RATHER HIGH PW VALUES (0.75-1.0 INCHES) ARE SHOWN ACROSS THE
PLAINS ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015
ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES WITH DAILY RAIN/THUNDER
CHANCES ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF A WINTER WEATHER EVENT FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FIRST LOW LOOKS TO TRACK OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND WE SHOULD BE SEEING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMING TO AN END BY LATE EVENING.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY.
REMARKABLY STRONG AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THE
MOVEMENT OF THE SECOND LOW THROUGH THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BOTH BRING THE LOW THROUGH SOUTHERN NEVADA FRIDAY...WITH
IT EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT. BOTH
SHOW -4 TO POSSIBLY -6C TEMPERATURES AT 700MB SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WHICH WOULD TURN RAIN OVER TO SNOW FOR MANY LOCATIONS
ABOVE 6000 FEET. NEED TO BE WATCHING FOR WINTER HEADLINES FOR
POSSIBLE HEAVY SNOW THIS WEEKEND. WE WILL CERTAINLY BE MONITORING
THIS LOW AS IT DRAWS CLOSER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 459 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015
IMPACTS TODAY WILL BE LOW CONDITIONS AROUND KCYS THIS MORNING IN
UPSLOPE FOG/STRATUS...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY. HRRR USED FOR KCYS AND SHOWS IFR/LIFR
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPING SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. ALREADY SEEING DENSE FOG
JUST WEST OF KCYS. LOOKS TO STAY IFR/LIFR THROUGH 18Z BEFORE
LIFTING. MORE WIDESPREAD LOW CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015
A COOL AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL MEAN MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEK. AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY...WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AND WETTING RAINS. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR WYZ116-117.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ZF
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...ZF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1149 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 538 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015
DECREASED POPS AT A QUICKER RATE DURING THE EARLY EVENING TIME
PERIOD. SYSTEM IS LIFTING OUT AND PRECIP SHOULD END EARLY THIS
EVENING OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS AS THE WINDS TAKE ON A WESTERLY
COMPONENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015
CURRENTLY...UPPER LOW LIFTING SLOWLY E-NE ALONG THE CO/NM
BORDER...WITH DEEP E-SE FLOW DRIVING WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE AREA. LACK OF INSTABILITY HAS KEPT THUNDERSTORMS TO A
MINIMUM...THOUGH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEGIN TO APPEAR ACROSS
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AS STRONGER CONVECTION ROTATES NORTHWARD OUT OF
NEW MEXICO. RAINFALL RATES SO FAR TODAY HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
MODEST...WITH 0.25-0.50 INCH PER HOUR UNDER THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS...MAINLY A TENTH OF INCH PER HOUR OR LESS UNDER THE LIGHTER
ACTIVITY.
TONIGHT...LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS
ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER AT 21Z WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST AREA OF
ORGANIZED HEAVIER PRECIP THIS EVENING...WITH ACTIVITY LIFTING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD AND WEAKENING AFTER 00Z. STILL A LOW THREAT OF AN ISOLATED
TSRA THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN SECTIONS NEAR THE NM BORDER
WHERE INSTABILITY (CAPES 200-400 J/KG) IS SLIGHTLY DEEPER...BUT
OVERALL...CHANCE OF STRONGER CONVECTION AND EXTREME RAINFALL RATES
APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY LOW...SO WILL LET FLASH FLOOD WATCH END
SLIGHTLY EARLY WITH AFTERNOON FORECAST UPDATE. AS LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE DEVELOPING WESTERLY LOW/MID
LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY BRINGS AN END TO PRECIP OVER THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS AFTER 06Z. WON`T MENTION FOG IN THE
FORECAST AS CLOUDS AND WEAK WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP VISIBILITY
FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH...THOUGH WITH PLENTIFUL RAIN/BL MOISTURE
AREAS OF GROUND FOG LOOK POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY EL PASO COUNTY
WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO TURN W-NW.
WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SWLY
THROUGH THE DAY. MOISTURE DECREASES SOMEWHAT AS WELL...THOUGH WITH
RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WEAK
UPPER WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...AT LEAST SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MANY AREAS.
BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND NORTHERN
AREAS...LESSER POPS FARTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WHERE DRIER AIR
PUNCHES NORTHWARD FROM NM. MAX TEMPS WILL RECOVER ALL AREAS WITH
MORE SUN AND LACK OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...AND A FEW SPOTS ON THE
PLAINS WILL APPROACH 80F...WITH 60S AND 70S ACROSS MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015
...WEATHER PATTERN TO REMAIN ACTIVE FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
AFTER A BRIEF LULL WEDNESDAY...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS...LEADING TO MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY FOR AREAS
ALONG AND NEAR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE PIKES
PEAK REGION...BUT ALSO FOR SPOTS OUT ON THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE
SHEAR VALUES SUCH THAT A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE BECOMES MORE
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE UPSLOPE LOOKS LIKE
IT GETS DEEP ENOUGH TO BRING IN WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS
OF LIGHT PRECIP...BUT POTENTIALLY REDUCES THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
THIS DAY...BY LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF HEATING. SEVERE STORMS
PRESENTLY LOOK LESS LIKELY THIS DAY...BUT THIS IS CONTINGENT ON
HOW DEEP THE UPSLOPE FLOW REALLY TURNS OUT TO BE. COULD STILL HAVE
SOME PROBLEMS ALONG AND NEAR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS
THE PIKES PEAK REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THEN...ON SATURDAY...WE BRING THE NEXT MAJOR NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO. THIS TROUGH LOOKS VIGOROUS...WITH
THE POTENTIAL TO CREATE A LOT OF LIFT...AND GENERATE A LOT OF INTENSE
CONVECTION...IN A STRONGLY SHEARED ATMOSPHERE. PROBLEM IS...NOT
EXACTLY SURE WHAT TRAJECTORY THIS THING IS GOING TO TAKE AS IT
EJECTS NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. THE 12Z GFS AND THE OLD 00Z ECMWF
TRACK IT FARTHER NORTH THAN SOME OF THE 06Z RUNS...GENERALLY
YIELDING LESS SEVERE POTENTIAL. BUT...IF THE 06Z RUNS TURN OUT
TO BE MORE TRUE TO FORM...WATCH OUT. COULD BE BIG SEVERE WEATHER
DAY OVER THE EAST...WITH TORNADO POTENTIAL AS WELL AS HAIL/WIND
POTENTIAL.
THEN...AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY...THINGS SHIFT OVER MORE TOWARD WINTER
WEATHER AS WE GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SATURDAY SYSTEM. COLD AIR
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM COULD BRING SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS...
AND POSSIBLY DOWN TO THE LEVEL OF EL PASO COUNTY. FARTHER EAST...
AWAY FROM THE MOUNTAINS...IT WOULD LIKELY BE JUST SPOTTY LIGHTER
AMOUNTS OF RAIN.
NORTHWEST FLOW COULD BRING MORE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY. AND THEN...BY TUESDAY...IT`S LOOKING LIKE
ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.
A LOT OF WEATHER TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. DETAILS
PRESENTED NOW WILL INEVITABLY CHANGE. PLEASE KEEP CHECKING BACK FOR
LATER UPDATES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED NEXT 24H AT KCOS...KPUB AND
KALS. LOTS OF LLVL MSTR IN ATMOSPHERE TONIGHT BUT WITH WESTERLY
FLOW ABOVE SFC BELIEVE THREAT OF LOW CLOUDS RATHER LOW. CAN`T RULE
OUT SOME GF BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO MENTION. A PASSING LIGHT SHOWER
IS POSSIBLE.
FOR TOMORROW...MAY SEE SOME ISOLD THUNDER PASSING OVERHEAD DURING
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT IT WILL BE HIGH BASED. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO NW TOMORROW EVENING AS A PREFRONTAL TROUGH PASSES THE REGION.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
449 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO
SOUTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR
SUNSHINE WITH ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON EXPECTED TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS INCREASING OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 449 AM EST...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK NEARLY
STATIONARY BOUNDARY SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER PA AND
NJ. A DISTURBANCE IN THE MID LEVELS MOVING ALONG THIS SFC BOUNDARY
IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF
UPSTATE NY...AS SEEN IN THE LATEST KENX RADAR IMAGERY. THESE
SHOWERS ARE MOVING EASTWARD...AND ARE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND INTO NW CT. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
MOHAWK VALLEY ON SOUTHWARD...THANKS TO THE PROXIMITY OF THIS
BOUNDARY AND SHOWER ACTIVITY. SHOWERS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT...AND
PRODUCING ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL AT MOST.
THE LATEST 3KM HRRR SHOWS THE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD END BY ABOUT MID MORNING OR SO...AS
THE WEAK DISTURBANCE STARTS TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY TODAY. MOST AREAS LOOK TO BE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE AREA...INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BE
LOWER...SO MIXING WON/T BE QUITE AS DEEP AS RECENT DAYS.
STILL...TEMPS ALOFT ARE FAIRLY WARM...SO ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL DAY
CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER...AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE...AS RIDGING
ESTABLISHES ITSELF ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL OFF FOR
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S IN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS TO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S IN VALLEY AREAS. HOWEVER...WITH
LOTS OF SUN EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...TEMPS WILL QUICKLY WARM THROUGH
THE MORNING...AND LOOK TO REACH AROUND 80 FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON /SOME UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS/.
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE
CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
OCCURRING...WITH UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S ONCE AGAIN.
850 HPA TEMPS WILL RISE TO 12-14 DEGREES C FOR FRIDAY. WITH LOTS
OF SUN CONTINUED TO OCCUR AND RISING HEIGHTS...MAX TEMPS WILL BE
EVEN WARMER. HIGHS LOOK TO REACH LOW TO MID 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS
WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF HUMIDITY AS WELL. THERE MAY BE A MORE
CLOUDS BY FRIDAY AFTN WITH SOME DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING...BUT IT
WILL REMAIN DRY. TEMPS ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY FALL TO THE MID
50S TO LOW 60S THANKS TO THE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF HUMIDITY AND THE
MORE CLOUDS AROUND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD PERSIST INTO MONDAY WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING THE REGION ITS FIRST
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SINCE THE ABOUT APRIL 21ST.
GUIDANCE INDICATES RIDGING SHOULD PERSIST OVER OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH A WEAK LOW MEANDERING AROUND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD FLATTEN WHILE
THE LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WEAKENS AND DRIFTS NORTHWARD. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND POSSIBLY OPENS
AS IT HEADS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE
WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE FLOW ALOFT WILL PARALLEL THE BOUNDARY CAUSING ITS TO
STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. THE LOCAL AREA WILL
REMAIN IN A MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST.
EXPECTING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS WITH THE BETTER CHANCES EXPECTED SUNDAY AS THE BOUNDARY
EDGES CLOSER.
AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES MONDAY
AND SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY RESULTING IN INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND THE GREATER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING 06Z/THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT HAS BECOME STALLED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA AND THE NEW YORK METROPOLITAN AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS RESULTING IN SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER THE LIKELIHOOD ANY SHOWERS
WILL IMPACT KPOU IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. OTHERWISE MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION DECREASING
AFTER SUNRISE. A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING ANY CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE
AND CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NIGHT.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS AREA EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...
THU-FRI-NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUN NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
...LOW RH VALUES EACH AFTERNOON FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE REGION IS DRY...THERE ARE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...INCLUDING THE AREA
NEAR THE ROOSA GAP FIRE IN EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN ULSTER COUNTY. ANY
PRECIP LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT. THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL END
BY LATER THIS MORNING...WITH CLOUDS BREAKING FOR SUNSHINE OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH S-SW WINDS AT 5 MPH OR LESS.
RH VALUES SHOULD RECOVER NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION. DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN
DROP TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT...GENERALLY S TO SW AT 5
TO 10 MPH.
WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...RH VALUES LOOK TO ONLY DROP
TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT ON FRIDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ASIDE FROM A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS EARLY THIS
MORNING...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. TOTAL QPF OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THIS WEEKEND. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION AT ALL.
AS A RESULT...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL EITHER HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY
RECEDE THROUGH THE WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
152 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO
SOUTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR
SUNSHINE WITH ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON EXPECTED TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS INCREASING OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 152 AM...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY IS PRODUCING SOME RAIN SHOWERS...WHICH ARE CURRENTLY OVER
CENTRAL NY AND NE PA. AS THESE SHOWERS SLIDE TO THE E-SE...THEY
WILL CLIP THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE 3KM HRRR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY TO BE
FAIRY LIGHT IN INTENSITY...AND MOST AREAS MAY NOT WIND UP SEEING
MUCH MEASURABLE PRECIP. STILL...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
FURTHER NORTH...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
A BAND OF CLOUDS SINKING SOUTHWARD...SO SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS FOR AREAS FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION ON NORTHWARD. FURTHER SOUTH...PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD REMAIN THANKS TO THE NEARBY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND UPSTREAM PRECIP EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION.
LOW TEMPS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO
THE MID 50S IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
OTHER THAN CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...DRY CONDITIONS AND DECREASING CLOUDS WILL RESULT
IN A RATHER PLEASANT MAY AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOST
AREAS WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. IT WILL TAKE LONGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHERN AREAS TO WARM DUE TO EARLY CLOUD COVER.
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST FROM THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS AN EXPANSIVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES FOR THURSDAY AS
TEMPS ALOFT INCREASE...SO MOST AREAS SHOULD HAVE HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO NEAR 80. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL INITIALLY BE COOL AND SEASONABLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES WARMER
THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE WHICH WILL
NOT ALLOW FOR COOLING TO BE AS EFFICIENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPS BEGIN
TO COOL OFF EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SURFACE LOW HEADS TOWARDS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY TUESDAY...AND MAY BRING THE REGION THE
FIRST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT SINCE THE ABOUT THE 21ST OF APRIL.
ON FRIDAY THE REGION WILL STILL BE DOMINATED BY RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT...AND DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
DURING THE WEEKEND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRY TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION...BUT WILL LIKELY BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS NORTHERN NY
AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN A
MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST DURING
THE WEEKEND. HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT DURING THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THERE MAY ALSO BE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTN/EVE HOURS AS WELL. THE HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS
SUNDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING
DURING THE WEEKEND...RISING TO AROUND 60 IN SOME AREAS BY SUNDAY...
WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL HUMID FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE LAST SUMMER.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY
AND HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 35 TO 45 PERCENT...RISING TO 50 TO 60
PERCENT BY TUESDAY AS THE LOW HEADS DOWN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
DUE TO MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS...IT WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE 70 TO 80. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING 06Z/THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT HAS BECOME STALLED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA AND THE NEW YORK METROPOLITAN AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS RESULTING IN SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER THE LIKELIHOOD ANY SHOWERS
WILL IMPACT KPOU IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. OTHERWISE MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION DECREASING
AFTER SUNRISE. A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING ANY CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE
AND CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NIGHT.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS AREA EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...
THU-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY...
...HIGH HAINES INDEX VALUES OF 5 TO 6 EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL /GREATER THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH/ HAS NOT
OCCURRED IN WELL OVER A WEEK ACROSS THE REGION AND STATE OFFICIALS
HAVE NOTED THAT FOREST FUELS ARE RATHER DRY AT THIS TIME.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD INTO OUR
REGION TONIGHT...WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. A DISTURBANCE TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE CATSKILLS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...AS A LARGE
RIDGE OF HIGH BUILDS IN AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
WETTING RAINFALL IS NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR UNTIL AT LEAST THE WEEKEND
WHEN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. UNTIL
THEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 60 TO 90 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO VERY LOW VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT ON
WEDNESDAY. RH WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 70 AND 95 PERCENT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS TONIGHT
WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS...BECOMING VARIABLE ON
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 5 MPH
OR LESS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION.
MOST AREAS WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...EXCEPT FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...SUCH AS THE SOUTHEASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT...WHERE ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO PERHAPS A TENTH OF AN INCH MAY FALL.
AS A RESULT...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL EITHER HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY
RECEDE THROUGH THE WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
419 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF COAST REGION AND A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EAST OF FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE FORECAST AREA IN THE NEAR
TERM. IT WILL BE ANOTHER SEASONABLY WARM DAY WITH DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES CREEPING UP ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY.
THE GFS...NUMEROUS WRF RUNS...AND THE HRRR MODEL ALL INDICATE SOME
QPF AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND POSSIBLY ADJACENT SOUTHWEST GEORGIA THIS
AFTERNOON...SO HAVE ADDED MENTION IN THE FORECAST...AND SHAVED A
COUPLE DEGREES FROM THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY.
.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AFFECTS ON THE
LOCAL AREA. THE 00Z GFS DOES SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
ON FRIDAY...BUT THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE FORM OF CLOUD COVER WITH PRECIP REMAINING EAST OF THE AREA.
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE AREA RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S.
.LONG TERM [FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...
THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET BECOMES BETTER DEFINED AGAIN OFF THE
WEST COAST AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES
MOVES EASTWARD. LOCALLY...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AVERAGING A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY] THE COMBINATION OF A SLIGHT EAST TO
NORTHEAST WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY STILL MOSTLY AT OR BELOW 90
PERCENT SHOULD PREVENT ANY FOG FROM FORMING THIS MORNING...HOWEVER
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS PRODUCING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR OR IFR AT ONE OR TWO AIRPORTS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AGAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE APPEARS TO
BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BRIEFLY IMPACTING A FEW
AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO
LOW FOR MENTION IN THE TAFS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY WITH FAIRLY LOW WINDS
AND SEAS CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MEET RED FLAG
WARNING CRITERIA THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...ALTHOUGH THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE IN
SOME AREAS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DEEP MIXING AND WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE DISPERSION VALUES TO BE HIGH THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT NOT QUITE AS HIGH ON THURSDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AND RIVERS
RECEDING...THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGY CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 88 63 89 61 89 / 20 10 10 10 10
PANAMA CITY 83 65 80 65 81 / 20 10 0 0 0
DOTHAN 85 62 85 61 87 / 10 10 0 0 10
ALBANY 85 59 86 60 88 / 10 10 0 0 10
VALDOSTA 87 62 86 61 86 / 10 10 10 10 10
CROSS CITY 88 60 88 61 89 / 20 10 0 0 10
APALACHICOLA 83 67 82 66 83 / 10 10 0 0 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TD
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...TD
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...TD
HYDROLOGY...DVD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
415 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
.DISCUSSION...
...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE TODAY WILL BRING ROUGH
SURF...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS...MINOR BEACH EROSION...AND A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG EAST CENTRAL FL BEACHES...
...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST OF
BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES INTO THE AFTERNOON...
CURRENTLY/TODAY...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING OFF
THE SE FL COAST THIS MORNING WITH SFC PRESSURE DROPPING TO 1016.4
MBS AT KFLL AND 1016.7 MBS AT SETTLEMENT POINT ON GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND AT 06Z. SHORT RANGE MODELS GRADUALLY DEEPEN THE SFC LOW
PRESSURE AREA AS IT MOVES NNE TODAY IN TANDEM WITH A MID LVL CLOSED
LOW AT 500 MBS. LOW LVL FLOW CURRENTLY FROM THE E-NE WILL BECOME NE-
N INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS A FEW MILLIBARS EAST OF
OUR OFFSHORE WATERS INTO THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STORMS WILL MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST INTO EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS N CSTL AREAS BY LATE IN
THE DAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL FURTHER NORTH TOWARD EARLY
EVENING. WILL HAVE LIKELY SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE COAST AND CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/SLGT CHC FOR A LIGHTNING STORM ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE VOLUSIA
AND BREVARD COUNTY BARRIER ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH POSSIBLE. AT THE BEACHES ROUGH SURF...A MODERATE RISK FOR
RIP CURRENTS AND A DEVELOPING LONG SHORE CURRENT WILL BE PRESENT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED CLOSE TO THE
EAST COAST WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS WELL INTERIOR AREAS
LATER IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 80/LWR 80S FOR
COASTAL AREAS AND MID 80S FOR THE INTERIOR.
TONIGHT...THE SFC LOW OFFSHORE FROM VOLUSIA COUNTY DURING THE EARLY
EVENING WILL LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NW WITH
DEEP MOISTURE ALSO LIFTING NE OF THE AREA AS DRIER AIR WRAPS AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. WILL KEEP SOME LOW EVENING CSTL SHOWER
CHCS THAT SHOULD END BY MID TO LATE EVENING AS LOW LVL FLOW BECOMES
NW AND DRIER AIR MOVES TWD THE AREA FROM THE NRN PENINSULA. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
THU-FRI...BROAD SFC LOW WILL WOBBLE SLOWLY UP THE CAROLINA
COAST...BLOCKED OUT BY A WELL DEFINED H100-H70 RIDGE AXIS DRAPED
OVER THE MID ATLC/TN/OH RIVER VALLEYS. THIS TRACK WILL PLACE CENTRAL
FL ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...AN AREA USUALLY ASSOCD WITH A
DESCENDING AIRMASS AND DRY AIR ADVECTION DUE TO W/NWRLY CONTINENTAL
FLOW.
THE AIRMASS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL BE THE EVENTUAL SOURCE REGION
FOR CENTRAL FL WX THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. LATEST RAP
ANALYSIS DOES INDEED SHOW THIS AIRMASS TO BE QUITE DRY AND STABLE
WITH H100-H70 MEAN RH VALUES AOB 50PCT...H85-H50 VALUES AOB 30PCT.
THE 00Z ATLANTA RAOB MEASURED PWAT VALUES ARND 0.7" WITH A
NOTEWORTHY SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE H85-H70 LYR.
NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE 00Z MOS GUIDANCE CAME IN QUITE DRY WITH POPS
THRU 12Z SAT LARGELY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS CENTRAL FLORIDA GETS
"DRY SLOTTED". A FEW SHRAS MAY DVLP AFT SUNSET FRI EVNG ALONG AND N
OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WORK ITS WAY INTO N
FL...BUT PRECIP THAT DVLPS FROM SUCH A MOISTURE ADVECTION REGIME
RARELY HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT. AS SUCH...WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF
THE FCST THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. MAX/MIN TEMPS NEAR CLIMO
AVG.
SAT-TUE...THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE FL
STRAITS AND BUILD SLOWLY NWD AS THE CAROLINA LOW CREEPS UP THE ERN
SEABOARD. SRLY BREEZE WILL PREVAIL THRU THE H100-H70 LYR INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...A FLOW THAT WILL TAP A CARIBBEAN AIRMASS THAT IS ON THE
DRY SIDE. LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS H100-H70 RH VALUES LARGELY AOB
70PCT...WHICH WILL IMPEDE MOISTURE LOADING ACRS THE GOMEX/W ATLC
REGION. WILL BRING PRECIP BACK INTO THE FCST ON SUN...BUT LIMITING
POPS TO 20-30PCT RANGE THRU THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. SRLY FLOW
WILL GENERATE ABV AVG TEMPS...AFTN MAXES IN THE M/U80S...MRNG MINS
IN THE U60S/L70S.
&&
.AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL STREAM ONSHORE FROM THE ATLC AS LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE N/NNE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLC WATERS TODAY.
GENERALLY VFR CIGS FOR THE INTERIOR WITH MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH
SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE FOR CSTL TERMINALS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH
SHOWERS...ESPEC FROM KMLB-KDAB ALONG THE COAST WILL BRING BRIEF IFR
VSBYS WITH +RA. CONDS BCMG VFR ALL AREAS TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
PULLS OFF TO THE NORTH OFFSHORE FROM NE FL. GUSTY WINDS TO 20 KNOTS
INTERIOR AND 20-25 KNOTS N CSTL TERMINALS /KDAB-KMLB/ THIS AFTN
IS EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE... WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE TODAY BOTH NAM AND
GFS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING WINDS UP TO 20-24 KNOTS
OFFSHORE AND INTO THE NRN/CENTRAL NEAR SHORE WATERS. WILL RAISE AN
ADVISORY FOR ALL MARINE AREAS WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING MID DAY
INTO THIS EVENING. NE-N WINDS INCREASING ACROSS GULF STREAM WILL
BUILD SEAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING TO AROUND 8 FT. WILL
GENERALLY HAVE 6-8 FT SEAS OFFSHORE AND SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT NEAR
THE COAST AND UP TO AROUND 7 FT CLOSER TO 20 NM OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL
BECOME NW-W TONIGHT WITH STRONGER WINDS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NRN OFFSHORE LEGS. WILL ALLOW ADVISORY FOR THE NEAR SHORE
SRN LEG TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM...BUT CONTINUE THE REMAINING MARINE ZONES
IN AN ADVISORY THROUGH 8 AM.
THU-THU NIGHT...MODERATE TO FRESH W/NW BREEZE N OF SEBASTIAN INLET
WILL DIMINISH AS THE SFC LOW DRIFTS INTO THE CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS...GENTLE TO MODERATE W/NW BREEZE S OF THE INLET BCMG ONSHORE
NEAR THE COAST AS LCL PGRAD WEAKENS AND ALLOWS THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE TO DVLP. SEAS 3-5FT NEARSHORE AND 5-7FT OFFSHORE THRU THE
DAY...SUBSIDING TO 2-4FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5FT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
FRI-FRI NIGHT...LIGHT TO GENTLE WRLY BREEZE TO START THE DAY...BUT A
WEAK SFC PGRAD WILL ALLOW SFC WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE E/SE BY AFTN AS
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DVLPS. AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE
OVER THE CAROLINAS...THE ATLC RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE FL
STRAITS/S FL PENINSULA AFT SUNSET...ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE
S/SW. SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE.
SAT-SUN...ATLC RIDGE WILL BUILD SLOWLY NWD THRU THE WEEKEND AS THE
CAROLINA LOW CREEPS UP THE COAST. SRLY BREEZE WILL PREVAIL...
SHIFTING BTWN SW AND SE WITH THE FORMATION OF THE DIURNAL
SEABREEZES. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3FT...UP TO 4FT IN THE GULF STREAM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 80 63 80 65 / 60 20 0 0
MCO 85 65 86 64 / 40 10 0 0
MLB 82 64 82 65 / 60 20 10 0
VRB 82 63 83 66 / 60 20 10 10
LEE 86 65 86 66 / 30 10 0 0
SFB 84 64 86 65 / 50 10 0 0
ORL 84 67 86 65 / 40 10 0 0
FPR 82 64 83 66 / 60 20 10 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH
TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH
TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR SEBASTIAN INLET
TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....BRAGAW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
324 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR MACOMB TO PARIS ACROSS CENTRAL IL
THIS MORNING AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY ARE RESULTING IN AREAS OF FOG...WITH OCCASIONAL DENSE
FOG OBSERVATIONS IN BLOOMINGTON...AND LASALLE AND PONTIAC TO THE
NORTH. 7Z HRRR MODEL IS DEPICTING WELL THE DENSE AREA AND HAVE
INCORPORATED PATCHY DENSE FOG IN GRIDS ACCORDING TO THIS. FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY AROUND 8 AM WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
FOR TODAY...A 500 MB RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED NW-SE ACROSS IL WILL SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD WHILE A SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EJECTS
NORTHEASTWARD JUST WEST OF ILLINOIS. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN SIDE OF ILLINOIS BUT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE CENTRAL IL FORECAST AREA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR CENTRAL IL INDICATE A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND
DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS WHICH SHOULD HELP TO PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH ENOUGH MOISTURE BELOW THE DRY SUBSIDENT LAYER
COULD BRING SCATTERED TO BROKEN SHALLOW CUMULUS. SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWARD WITH
WARM AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING HIGHS INTO THE MID OR UPPER 80S
ACROSS CENTRAL IL. SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHERLY 8-15 MPH
WITH GUSTS 12-20 MPH...THE STRONGER WINDS TOWARD THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE STATE.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
BRIEF DRY PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE
WARM TEMPS. STORM/WAVE OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL TRACK
NORTH/NORTHEAST BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOSTLY STAY TO THE WEST...BUT
SOME PRECIP CHANCES SNEAKING INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON THURSDAY,
WITH THE BEST CHANCES PUSHING INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND OVERNIGHT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BIGGER SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE DESERT
SW OVER THE NEXT 36 HRS OR SO AND WILL KEEP THE WESTERN US UNDER A
TROF, AMPLIFYING THE PATTERN AND SETTING UP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR
THE MIDWEST. MANY SHORTWAVES TRACKING AROUND THE TROF AND UP INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WORKWEEK. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS KEEP HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY THREAT IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS SLOWLY DRIVEN OUT OF THE REGION.
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE THE BEST
FOCUS AND THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY DIFFUSE WITH THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM WITH A PRETTY STUBBORN WARM
AIRMASS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SFC KEEPING WAA GOING EVEN WITH
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AT LEAST UNTIL THE TROF FINALLY
EXITS NE AND ALLOWS COOLER TEMPS BACK INTO THE REGION BY DAY7/DAY 8.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITTING JUST SOUTH OF I-74 ACROSS THE AREA.
DEWPOINTS ARE POOLING ALONG THIS FRONT AND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS
WAY THROUGH THE NIGHT. NEAR WHERE RAIN OCCURRED THIS EVENING, FOG
HAS DEVELOPED, WITH BMI BEING THE LOWEST AT THIS POINT. MVFR
CONDITIONS AT PIA WITH IFR AT BMI. AWSS AT BMI IS REPORTING A CIG
AT 2OO FT, BUT REMARKS SAYS IT IS SCATTERED SOMETIMES, SO WILL
HAVE TEMPO BROKEN IN THE TAF AT ISSUANCE TIME. CMI COULD SEE SOME
FOG SINCE THE FRONT IS SOUTH OF THE TAF SITE. TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD
AT CMI IS 6DEG SO WILL JUST HAVE A TEMPO FOR LOWER VIS IN THE
TAFS. SPI AND DEC SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND POOLING
MOISTURE SO EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THERE OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TOMORROW MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH OF I-74.
PIA/BMI/CMI WINDS WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY NORTH OF THE FRONT. SPI
AND DEC WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT. WITH THE FRONT LIFTING
NORTH TOMORROW, ALL SITES WILL HAVE SOUTHERLY WINDS TOMORROW.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ONTON
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...AUTEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
412 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
A STALLED FRONT OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NORTH
TODAY. CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR A THUNDERSTORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY FAR NORTH AND
NORTHEAST INDIANA...LOWER MICHIGAN...AND FAR NORTHWEST OHIO. HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 70S NEAR THE TRI-STATE REGION TO
THE MIDDLE 80S OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA. SKIES WILL BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
SHORT TERM ISSUES DEAL WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING FOLLOWED
BY PCPN CHANCES LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED WELL SOUTH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA AND HAS BECOME
QUITE DIFFUSE OVERNIGHT. GOES FOG/LOW CLOUD PRODUCT SHOWING
EXTENSIVE SHIELD OF STRATUS NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND COVERING ALL
BUT EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA. 07Z SFC OBSERVATIONS
CONFIRM WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY UNDER 1KFT AND VISIBILITIES AT OR
BELOW 3SM. HIRES MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SHARP LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND
A FEW AMDAR SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS. SHALLOW STRATUS DECK SEEMS TO BE
KEEPING VISIBILITIES IN THE 1-3SM RANGE WITH ONLY A SLOW DROP SO
FAR. THERE ARE BREAKS WITHIN THE STRATUS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE IF/WHERE THESE CLOUD FREE AREAS PERSIST.
WITH WEAK FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER MIXING WILL BE SLOW TODAY AND
WILL NEED TO RELY MORE ON DIURNAL HEATING TO AID AND EVENTUALLY
ERODE CLOUD DECK FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THIS MAY TAKE SOME EXTRA TIME
AND DELAY CLEARING UNTIL LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE FAR
NORTH AS RUC13 LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS DO NOT MIX UNTIL CLOSER TO 18Z.
WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE SLOWED CLEARING AND KEPT NORTHERN AREAS
MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY AS RAPID
WARMING EXPECTED ONCE SKIES CLEAR. SOUTHERN AREAS STILL EXPECTED TO
PUSH MID 80S WHILE NORTHERN AREAS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER
70S NOW WITH DELAYED CLEARING. 00Z MOS GUIDANCE STRUGGLING AS WELL
WITH LARGE DISPARITY BETWEEN HIGHER RESOLUTION MET GUIDANCE BEING
MUCH COOLER THAN MAV OVER NORTHERN AREAS WHILE VERY CLOSE IN THE
SOUTH.
NEXT ISSUE DEALS WITH LOW CHANCES FOR ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
RATHER STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH RETREATING
CLOUD DECK AND DIFFUSE FRONT MIXING NORTH. NAM 4KM DEVELOPS JUST A
FEW ISOLATED CELLS LATE AFTERNOON. LOWER RESOLUTION VERSION DEVELOPS
VERY LITTLE. MOST OTHER GUIDANCE PACKAGES REMAIN SPLIT. MODEST CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1K J/KG EXPECTED BUT SHEAR PROFILES ARE
UNIMPRESSIVE GIVEN WEAK FLOW THROUGH COLUMN. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
REMAIN WARRANTED FOR ANY POP UP DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY AFTER ABOUT 20Z
AND SIMILAR TO TUE NIGHT COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED TSRA LAST THROUGH
ABOUT 03Z FAR NORTH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE
START OF THE PERIOD...WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
PESKY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE AREA AND FALLING
APART (IF NOT ALREADY GONE). UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH WASHINGTON STATE WILL DEEPEN AND CUT OFF
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EAST TO THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL RIPPLES WILL EDGE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE REGION STARTING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A SURFACE FRONT DRIFTING SLOWLY SE INTO THE AREA.
THESE...COMBINED WITH A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SEVERAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE THE MAIN UPPER LOW FINALLY EJECTS AND LIFTS NE AWAY
FROM THE REGION. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS APPEARS TO BE
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LEAD WAVE AND MONDAY WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW. IN
TERMS OF TEMPS THE REST OF THE PERIOD MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR
INTO THE AREA THE FRONT GETS BEFORE STALLING OUT. LIKELY WILL END
UP A TIGHT GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE INTO THE WEEKEND UNTIL THE MAIN
SYSTEM PASSES. RAN WITH SUPERBLEND OF MODELS BEING THE BEST
COMPROMISE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED SOUTHWARD TO CENTRAL INDIANA AND
BECOME DIFFUSE. LARGE AREA OF IFRLIFR CIGS AND VIS HAVE EXPANDED
ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. KSBN ALREADY IFR AND KFWA IS SURROUNDED
BY IFR AT 0530Z. PER LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE SOUNDINGS...STRONG LOW
LEVEL INVERSION TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT FLOW SO EXPECT
THESE CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AND CONTINUE EXPANDING. EARLIER
RAINFALL HAS COOLED AND STABILIZED AIR NORTH OF FRONT AND WILL
MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR THIS BOUNDARY TO MOVE NORTH OVERNIGHT. LATEST MODEL
SOLUTIONS HAVE SLOWED THIS NORTHWARD PROGRESSION AND INDICATE WEAK
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO MIX NORTH MID TO LATE MORNING. HELD ONTO
LOWER END CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE RAPID
IMPROVEMENT EARLY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE LATE WED AFTN
BUT TOO LOW OF A PROBABILITY FOR TAF INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...LASHLEY
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1211 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA IN AREA NORTH OF DAYTIME
SURFACE BOUNDARY. SHORT TERM HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FOG
LINGERING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED READINGS ACROSS THE
NORTH DOWNWARD AS WARMER AIRMASS NEVER QUITE MADE IT INTO NORTHERN
IOWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA AND HAS NOT
MOVED MUCH AT ALL TODAY. IT MADE A VERY SLOW PROGRESSION NORTHWARD
AND CURRENTLY SITS JUST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20...VERSUS INTERSTATE 80
THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING FADED AS IT
TREKKED NORTHWARD AND AWAY FROM WHAT LITTLE LIFT...MAINLY WAA
OVER THE BOUNDARY...REMAINED. CLOUD COVER THAT LINGERED WELL INTO
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA PREVENTED SBCAPE VALUES FROM
SOARING...BUT HAVE REBOUNDED TO 1500-2000 J/KG WITH NIL CIN ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IOWA. AREAS THAT SAW SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY
REACH THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S...AND IS
BEING REALIZED NOW AS SOME WEAK CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FIRING UP
IN SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA AND WEST OF FORT DODGE. WEAK
SHEAR...GENERALLY 20KTS OR LESS...AND NO CAP WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS PULSE STORMS THAT WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL AS THEY
FIGHT FOR ENERGY. THE HRRR APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION ON CURRENT CONVECTION AND HAS ALL OF IT GONE BY 03Z WITH
THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT LIFTING MECHANISM OVER NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLED TO REACH DAYTIME HIGHS WITH THICK...AND
GENERALLY LOW...CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN IOWA. AS A RESULT MANY
LOCATIONS STILL SIT IN THE UPPER 50S. WITH THAT IN MIND...HAVE
DROPPED LOWS ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES SINCE DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY HIGH AND STOP ANY CRASHING TEMPS. FOG MAY BE OF CONCERN
ACROSS THE NORTH AS WELL...BUT MAY BE LIMITED WITH WINDS AROUND
10KTS. SITES THAT SEE WINDS DROP A BIT MAY SEE PERIODS OF FOG.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015
GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW ACROSS IOWA AND THE MIDWEST
WILL RESULT IN AN ACTIVE AND FAIRLY WET WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL BE PUNCTUATED BY TWO FAIRLY ROBUST
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND AN INTERMEDIARY PERIOD OF SUBTLE
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
THE FIRST BIG SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES IN THE FORM OF A DEEP OPEN WAVE...AND WILL MOVE UP OVER
OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE A LARGE
CLOSED 500 MB LOW CURRENTLY MOVING ASHORE OVER WASHINGTON/BRITISH
COLUMBIA WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC U.S.
COAST...REACHING NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER...AS THE FIRST SYSTEM DEPARTS QUICKLY TO OUR NORTHEAST
AND THE SECOND SYSTEM DIGS IN AND DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
IT WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER IOWA...THROUGH WHICH
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE AT THE END OF THIS WEEK. FINALLY...THE
LARGE SOUTHWEST U.S. LOW WILL EJECT UP ACROSS THE MIDWEST SOMETIME
AROUND SUNDAY.
AS THE LEADING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES UP INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY IT WILL PUSH A LARGE REGION OF WARM AIR AND THETA E
ADVECTION UP ACROSS IOWA. WITHIN THIS REGION WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER NEBRASKA AND KANSAS
TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY FADE AS THEY TRANSLATE ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR MOST
OF THE DAY...HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS NOT
HIGH AS IT APPEARS THAT IN WAKE OF THE INITIAL BAND OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION THERE MAY BE LITTLE TO FORCE TRAILING CONVECTION AND WE
COULD SEE A LULL SIMILAR TO TODAY. IN ANY EVENT...WHILE THERE IS
SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...NEARLY
UNIFORM LOW LEVEL WINDS AND A LACK OF ANY KIND OF FOCUS MECHANISM
LEAD TO A LOW RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WHICH IS WELL OUTLINED BY
SPC. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT ANOTHER EXPANSION OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET ON THE EASTERN
FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...BUT THIS ACTIVITY WILL
MOSTLY BE TO OUR WEST ACROSS NEBRASKA...SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHWESTERN IOWA AND ONCE AGAIN WITH A LOW SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
IN OUR AREA. FORECAST POPS HAVE BEEN TRENDED TOWARD THIS DIRECTION
AND TIMING.
POTENTIALLY THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD FOR OUR AREA WILL COME ON
THURSDAY. IT APPEARS THAT ONE OR TWO SHORTWAVES MOVING OVERHEAD
WILL PUSH A SYNOPTIC SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY ACROSS OUR AREA ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...AT PEAK HEATING TIME LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PROGNOSTIC MODELS UNANIMOUSLY
DEPICT A SWATH OF STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY...THOUGH THIS COULD BE TEMPERED BY DEBRIS FROM EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION. WHILE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS SOMEWHAT LESS
IMPRESSIVE DURING THIS TIME...DEEP SHEAR IN THE 25 TO 35 KT RANGE
COUPLED WITH SURFACE CAPE APPROACHING 3000 J/KG WOULD CERTAINLY
INDICATE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING AS WE
PROGRESS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
THE FORECAST FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY IS
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR SOUTHEAST THE ABOVE DISCUSSED SURFACE TROUGH
CAN PROGRESS. IT WILL LIKELY STALL SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
IOWA OR MISSOURI/ILLINOIS...WITH SUBSEQUENT SHORTWAVES MOVING
OVERHEAD AND KICKING OFF ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND NORTHWEST OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER...IT IS UNCLEAR HOW FAR
SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA THE BOUNDARY WILL LIE AND THUS HOW FAR INTO
OUR AREA THESE STORMS MAY PENETRATE. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO MODEL
CONSISTENCY IN THIS AREA...AND FOR NOW HAVE STUCK TO CHANCE POPS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS DEPICTING A ROUGH CONSENSUS
APPROACH. IN ANY EVENT...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DURING THIS
TIME WILL BE LOW ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
AS STORMS MAY TRAIN ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE.
FINALLY...THE SECOND AND STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DISCUSSED
EARLIER WILL MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
ENERGETIC NATURE OF THE SYSTEM THERE WILL AGAIN BE A POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER AT THIS RANGE THE CRITICAL DETAILS OF
TRACK AND TIMING AND THUS THE REGION OF MAXIMUM SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL REMAIN VERY UNCLEAR. IN ANY EVENT...IN WAKE OF THIS
WEEKEND SYSTEM IT APPEARS THAT A BRIEF RESPITE OF COOL AND QUIET
WEATHER MAY BE IN STORE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...06/06Z
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
IOWA OVERNIGHT AFFECTING KFOD...KMCW AND KALO WITH AREAS OF DENSE
FOG AND VERY LOW CEILINGS. THIS FOG WILL LIFT QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING RAPIDLY INCREASES. VFR CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY FOR MOST LOCATION FROM MIDDAY FORWARD.
CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO MOVE INTO THE WEST BY AFTERNOON AND
OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH AN
INCREASED THREAT OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT THAT TIME.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BLACK HAWK-
BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CERRO GORDO-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MARSHALL-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-SAC-STORY-TAMA-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.
&&
$$
UPDATE...COGIL
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...COGIL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
403 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST IS THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING: WHERE EXACTLY THE THREATS ARE MOST
SIGNIFICANT, WHAT THOSE THREATS WILL BE, AND JUST HOW THIS WILL ALL
UNFOLD.
OVERNIGHT WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW THE CENTER OF A
RATHER AMORPHOUS UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH AT LEAST A
COUPLE SMALLER EMBEDDED MESOSCALE VORTICES ROTATING ABOUT A COMMON
LARGER CENTER. THE SOUTHERNMOST OF THESE APPEARED TO BE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AS OF 0830 UTC AND CONTINUED TO LIFT SLOWLY
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. MID LEVEL DRYING WAS
OCCURRING TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THIS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
PRECIPITATION HAD PRETTY MUCH CLEARED THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION,
HAVING MOVED OFF INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. A SURFACE
LOW WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO AS A
DRYLINE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE SOUTHWESTERLY
MOMENTUM IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AND
TOWARD MIDDAY...WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE ADVANCEMENT OF WARM AIR
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MOIST AXIS. THE MOIST AXIS WILL RESIDE
ROUGHLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE AS A THERMAL RIDGE NOSES
TOWARD THE MOIST AXIS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...MOST PRONOUNCED NORTH
OF DODGE CITY UP TOWARD WAKEENEY. THIS WILL BE THE REGION MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO VIGOROUS SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AFTER
ABOUT 2000 UTC (3PM CDT). FOLLOWING THE NSSL VERSION OF THE WRF-
ARW...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BLOSSOM ALONG OR VERY NEAR THE HIGHWAY 283
CORRIDOR MAINLY NORTH OF DODGE CITY UP TO WAKEENEY...AND QUICKLY
BECOME SEVERE AS ONE OR TWO STORMS EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE
ADEQUATE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 35-40 KNOTS. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR LOOKS
REALLY GOOD WITH NEARLY 90 DEGREES OF TURNING THROUGH THE LAYER.
SURFACE-BASED CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG WILL ADVANCE NORTHWARD BY
LATE AFTERNOON, AND IN COMBINATION WITH ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
FOR ROTATING CONVECTION, VERY LARGE HAIL LOOKS LIKE A VERY GOOD BET
WITH UNINTERRUPTED SUPERCELLS, WITH MAXIMUM HAIL SIZE AROUND TENNIS
BALLS POSSIBLE.
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE CONVECTION WILL
EVOLVE TOWARD SUNSET. THERE IS GREAT CONCERN THAT IF A SUPERCELL CAN
THRIVE THROUGH SUNSET...OR IF A NEW SUPERCELL DEVELOPS FARTHER SOUTH
TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF UNINTERRUPTED INFLOW...THAT TORNADOES WILL
OCCUR. THE 0-1KM AGL NEAR SURFACE SHEAR WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
IN THE 00-03Z TIME FRAME THIS EVENING. STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IN
THIS LAYER IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2 ALONG WITH SBCAPE OF 2500 J/KG IS
A DANGEROUS COMBINATION, AND MOST CERTAINLY SUPPORTS DANGEROUS
TORNADOES GIVEN AN ESTABLISHED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM. THIS IS A
THREAT WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY, AND HOPEFULLY HOURLY
3KM HRRR MODEL TRENDS WILL HELP THE DAY SHIFT IN ASSESSING THIS
THREAT FURTHER. BY MID TO LATE EVENING, THIS THREAT WILL SHIFT EAST
TOWARD THE WFO ICT AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (EAST OF ELLIS, RUSH,
STAFFORD, PRATT, BARBER COUNTIES) AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE DOWN INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THEN EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND CENTRAL ROCKIES SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL
SPIN AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND
WESTERN KANSAS WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS. A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIODS THEN RETROGRADE
BACK WEST IN THE EVENING. THE AFOREMENTIONED DRYLINE AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE THE MAIN FOCAL POINT WHERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
FROM IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MODERATELY
UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIODS WITH AMPLE SHEAR IN THE LOW
TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ERGO, ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.
A FEW TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE CWA SATURDAY
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. ONCE AGAIN, A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND ISOLATED TORNADOES BEING THE
MAIN CONCERN. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG
WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS. THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH A DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS AT THE SURFACE.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS THURSDAY ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 80
DEGREES THEN RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 70 DEGREES SATURDAY WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER TO UPPER 50S
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY ARE
FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
WHERE THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TO
UPPER 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE COLD FRONT ISN`T
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM AROUND 40 DEGREES ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER
TO UPPER 40S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS MONDAY LOOK TO
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S THEN REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 70S TUESDAY.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
LOW STRATUS WITH CEILINGS/VISIBILITY IN THE IFR TO INTERMITTENT
LIFR CATEGORY WILL BE FOUND AT DDC, GCK, AND HYS THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND INTO THE FIRST FEW HOURS POST SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE CEILING
WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND 15Z WITH
WIDESPREAD VFR DEVELOPING IN THE 15-18Z TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY AT
GCK AND DDC. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 18 TO 23 KNOTS SUSTAINED BY MIDDAY TO EARLY
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE, AFFECTING HYS TERMINAL ONLY...AS GCK AND
DDC WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO FAR WEST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 81 59 81 58 / 10 10 50 60
GCK 83 53 80 55 / 10 10 40 40
EHA 82 51 80 52 / 10 10 30 30
LBL 82 54 82 57 / 10 10 40 50
HYS 75 58 78 54 / 50 50 40 70
P28 77 63 81 61 / 50 40 60 70
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1203 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
.AVIATION...
A CONSIDERABLE AC SHIELD WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE THAT WILL SHIFT ENE
ACROSS NCNTRL/NE TX AND SE OK THROUGH 12Z. SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME
MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AFTER 08Z OVER E TX...POSSIBLY DEVELOPING FARTHER
E INTO WRN LA AFTER 12Z. SHOULD ALSO SEE SCT CONVECTION CURRENTLY
ONGOING ACROSS N TX SHIFT ENE INTO E TX AFTER 10Z...ALTHOUGH THEY
SHOULD BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME. THE GREATEST
CONFIDENCE FOR SCT CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF NE
TX/SE OK PRIOR TO DAYBREAK...BUT DID ADD VCSH MENTION FOR THE
TYR/GGG/TXK TERMINALS BY/PRIOR TO 12Z. THIS CONVECTION MAY LINGER
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT SPREADS INTO SW AR/POSSIBLY EXTREME
NW LA...BUT STILL AM EXPECTING ANY MVFR CIGS TO LIFT/BECOME VFR BY
LATE MORNING. THE CU FIELD SHOULD SCATTER OUT LATE IN THE
DAY...BEFORE LOW STRATUS DEVELOPS/ADVECTS N JUST BEYOND THE END OF
THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. SE WINDS 5-10KTS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO
8-12KTS AFTER 15Z...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KTS POSSIBLE OVER E TX.
/15/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/
UPDATE...
LOWERED A FEW SITES OVERNIGHT LOW AND TWEAKED POPS THRU 12Z.
DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION IS WINDING DOWN NOW WITH A SHOWER RECENTLY AS FAR EAST
AS MANSFIELD AND STONEWALL. SO WILL KEEP 00-06 GRID FOR THE
OVERNIGHT WITH HRRR SHOWING A BIT OF QPF ALONG WITH NEW NAM. THE
BIGGER PICTURE SHOWS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHWRS/TSTMS OVER OK AND
N TX AND SOME AUSTIN WAY DRIFTING MORE IN OUR DIRECTION. ALSO IN
THE WAKE RAINFALL...PARTS OF I-30 ALREADY DOWN AT OR BELOW FORECAST
NUMBERS SO THESE HAVE BEEN UPDATED AND WILL LIKELY WARM A BIT
BEFORE DROPPING AGAIN BEFORE DAYBREAK. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT
THIS TIME AS LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP TONIGHT HELPING TO DEVELOP MORE
CONVECTION WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. /24/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 66 82 66 85 / 20 30 10 20
MLU 62 84 65 86 / 10 10 10 20
DEQ 63 78 65 82 / 30 30 10 20
TXK 65 80 66 84 / 20 30 20 20
ELD 63 82 66 85 / 10 10 10 20
TYR 67 81 67 83 / 40 30 20 30
GGG 66 81 66 83 / 30 30 20 30
LFK 68 84 68 85 / 20 30 20 30
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
210 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING VERY WARM AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE LOCAL AREA. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT...THEN DROPS INTO VIRGINIA LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING. LOW PRESSURE WILL SPIN
OFF OR NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST UPDATED TO BOOST POPS ACROSS AREAS NEAR AND N OF RIC
WHERE SHRAS/TSTMS HAVE BEEN WIDESPREAD THIS EVENG. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING SVR BUT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE PSBL WITH AN OCCASIONAL
LIGHTING STRIKE. COVERAGE WILL DECREASE AFTR MIDNITE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE
OF THE VA/NC COAST, EXTENDING BACK ACROSS EASTERN NC. ~1006 MB LOW
PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED ACROSS NEWFOUNDLAND, WITH SFC COLD FRONT
SNAKING BACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INTO NE PA/NW NJ AND THE EASTERN
GRT LAKES. A PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM SE PA INTO SRN
MD AND NORTHERN VA.
HAVE NOTED SOME INCREASING CU OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE AND EXPECT TO SEE A BIT MORE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA ALONG THE TROUGH BY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. DO HAVE SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS ACRS THE FAR
N/NW LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. EXPECT ANY SHOWERS TO BE SHORT LIVED
OWING TO FLAT/QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND SHOULD THEREFORE ALLOW
LIMITED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND WILL YIELD A VERY SLOW
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW.
BY TONIGHT, SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOTED ON IR SAT ACRS THE LWR GRT
LAKES WILL DAMPEN AS IT DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC. RESULTANT UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO THE WNW, AND WOULD ALLOW
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO CROSS A BIT FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. GIVEN THE LIMITED ACTIVITY THUS FAR, AND W/ HRRR NOT OVERLY
EXCITED ABOUT ACTIVITY TONIGHT, WILL HANG ON TO A 30-40% RAIN
CHANCE FOR SOME SCT SHRAS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WEST, AND LATE
TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT FOR THE EASTERN SHORE. FARTHER S-SE, EXPECT DRY
CONDS TO CONTINUE UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LWR 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE LINGERED A SLIGHT CHC FOR LINGERING SHOWERS JUST AFTER SUNSET
TOMORROW MORNING...W/AREA OF WEAK LIFT SLIDING ESE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT COINCIDENT WITH PLENTY OF LINGERING LLVL
MOISTURE. ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE BRIEF AND WIDELY SCT AT MOST.
OTHERWISE...DRY IN THE MORNING FOR MOST. EARLY SUN WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING AFTN CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZONES. STRONG HEATING
AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR
SOME SCT AFTN SHRAS/THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVR WRN AND NRN COUNTIES
LATE IN THE AFTN INTO WED NIGHT. FOR TEMPS, STILL ON THE WARM SIDE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN EXPECTATION OF A SLOWER FRONTAL
PROGRESSION...RESULTING IN A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY EARLY AND
HIGHS FM 80-85 WEST OF THE BAY...TO THE 70S ON THE ERN SHORE. FRONT
BECOMES VERY DIFFUSE TOMORROW NIGHT AND WASHES OUT BY THE TIME IT
REACHES THE VA/NC BORDER. MEANWHILE, SFC LOW PRES WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
SHAPE AND CLOSE OFF ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA/SE GA WED
AFTN/NIGHT. WEAK SFC RIDGING WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVERHEAD AND
ALLOW FOR A DRY OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. HOWEVER,
EXPECT A GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD TO LINGER OVERNIGHT
INTO THU MORNING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA. GENERALLY PARTLY SUNNY FARTHER SOUTH A 20-30% CHC FOR A
SHOWER OR TSTM, AGAIN MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. E-NE WINDS
WILL RESULT IN HI TEMPS RANGING THRU THE 70S TO NEAR 80 SW TO THE
UPPER 60S/LWR 70S ERN SHORE.
STILL MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF AFOREMENTIONED LOW ALONG THE SE
COAST. MODELS STILL HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING THIS SYSTEM...WHICH IS
CASTING A BIT OF LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM.
THE 12Z/5 GFS CONTINUES TO BRING THE SFC LOW INLAND OF THE SC/NC
COAST...WITH THE 12Z/NAM NOW IN CLOSE ENOUGH TO COVER THU NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. ITS SOLUTION IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS AND TAKES THE
SURFACE LOW INLAND ACROSS EXTREME NE GA/COASTAL SC BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. FOR ITS PART, THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF REMAINS OFFSHORE, BUT
HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS IN MOVING A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH
THE SFC LOW...AND EVEN KEEPS THE LOW NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST FOR FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HAVE GONE WITH A
GFS WEIGHTED GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR FRIDAY UNTIL MODELS COME INTO A BIT
CLOSER AGREEMENT. EITHER WAY, EXPECT FRIDAY TO BE PREDOMINATELY
DRY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, BUT SHOULD SEE SOME (MAINLY) DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA (BEST CHC SOUTH OF THE BORDER INTO NC). HIGHS 80-85 INLAND,
COOLER U60S TO M70S ALONG THE COAST IN CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH LO PRES SPINNING JUST OFF OR
ALNG THE SE OR NC CST FRI NGT INTO MON MORNG. THEN...MODELS SHOW
THE LO WEAKENING AND GETTING PUSHED NNE ALNG OR JUST OFF THE VA
CST MON NGT INTO TUE MORNG...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE W.
THAT FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACRS THE AREA TUE INTO TUE NGT. WILL
HAVE 20%-30% POPS FOR SHOWERS OR TSTMS OVR MUCH OF THE REGION FRI
NGT THRU MON NGT...DUE TO MOISTURE/LIFT FM THE LO PRES AREA.
THEN...HAVE 30%-40% POPS FOR TUE/TUE NGT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT. TEMPS WILL BE ABV NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S
TO MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EARLIER SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE REGION...WITH ONLY SOME
LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AOA 12K FT AGL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT HAS LOCATED OVER SRN PA/OH EARLY THIS MORNING.
HIGH CLOUDS AOA 25K FT AGL ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTROPICAL LOW OFF
THE FL PANHANDLE HAVE LIFTED OVER SE VA/NE NC. OTHERWISE...SSW
WINDS AOB 10 KT. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO
NRN VA WHERE RAINFALL OCCURRED AND SKIES HAVE CLEARED.
HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND CLOUD COVER WILL
PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES.
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST
COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO NRN VA AND THE MD
ERN SHORE. DRY SE VA/NE NC. HAVE OPTED TO WAIT TO MENTION IN TAFS
UNTIL CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10 KT THIS
MORNING...BECOMING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SE...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KT.
SKIES RANGE FROM SCT-BKN WITH DECKS 4-6K FT AGL IN THE NORTH TO
SKC IN THE SE.
THE BACKDOOR FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURS. LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SE COAST THRU THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SE
VA/NE NC FRI THRU SUN.
&&
.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU THU. HI PRES WILL SLIDE
FARTHER OUT TO SEA TNGT THRU WED. MODELS STILL SHOW LO PRES
SPINNING JUST OFF OR NEAR THE SE CST THU INTO SUN. EXPECT SSW
WINDS 15 KT OR LESS TNGT INTO WED NGT...THEN E OR SE WINDS 5 TO 15
KT THU INTO SUN. WAVES WILL BE 1 TO 2 FT...AND SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4
FT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAS/MAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...TMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
429 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH TODAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL MOVE ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE FRONT BRINGING SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE ACROSS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON
THURSDAY BRINGING WARM AND DRY WEATHER WITH IT. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES REGION TO THE UPPER
MOHAWK VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS EARLY THIS
MORNING...ONE MOVING ACRS SC NY AND NE PA AND ANOTHER ONE ACRS NE
OH TO NW PA. THE FIRST BATCH OF PRECIP OVER SC NY/NE PA WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT IN ADVANCE OF A SHRT WAVE THAT WAS
MOVING ACRS THE ERN LAKES INTO NY STATE. THIS FEATURE WAS
SUPPORTING A SWRLY LOW-LEVEL WIND MAX WHICH WAS RISING
ISENTROPICALLY ACRS SC NY/NE PA AND LEADING TO A MORE STRATIFORM
RAIN. THIS WAVE WILL CONT EAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND TAKE THIS
PRECIPITATION EAST OF SC NY SO HAVE POPS FOR SHRA WINDING DOWN BY
ARND 12Z OR SO IN SC NY. RADAR SHOWS THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP IN
NW OH AND NW PA HEADING JUST S OF E TWD NE PA AND SULLIVAN CO NY
PRIMARILY. BELIEVE THE RAP HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THE NEXT PRECIP SHIELD BASED ON CURRENT RADAR DATA WHEN LOOKING AT
THE OTHER HI RES MODEL REFLECTIVITIES. THE PRECIP WAS MORE
CONVECTIVE IN NATURE IN NE OH/NW PA AS IT WAS BEING SUPPORTED BY
ANTHR LOW- LEVEL WIND MAX TIED TO A SMALL SHRT WAVE AT MID- LEVELS
MAINLY. THERE WAS MORE LL THETA-E ADVTN IN THIS AREA THAT WAS
DESTABLIZING THE AMS ABV A SFC FRNT WHICH WAS ACRS SERN OH TO SW
PA. SO THE LL WIND MAX WAS ADVECTING MOISTURE ABV THE SFC FRNT
LEADING TO ELEVATED CONVECTIVE SHRA AND ISLD TSRA. THIS WIND MAX
MOVES E THIS MORNING AND THE MOISTURE ADVTN WEAKENS SOME BUT THERE
WILL BE INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT THRU 12Z OVER NE PA. SO WE
THINK THE PRECIP WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM-ISH IN NATURE AS IT
WORKS INTO NE PA AND SERN NY BTWN 12Z AND 15Z. BY 15Z...THERE WILL
BE ENUF MIXING IN THE BNDRY LAYER SOUTH OF THE PRECIP TO DISRUPT
THIS LL WIND MAX WHICH WILL IN EFFECT CUT OFF THE ISENTROPIC LIFT.
THUS WE EXPECT THIS PRECIP WILL WEAKEN AND FALL APART BY 15-18Z
THE LATEST.
THEN FOR THE AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE ENUF DRY AIR IN THE LL/S TO
PRECLUDE MUCH CUMULUS FORMATION FROM NC NY TO THE CATSKILLS.
FARTHER W...THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE LL MOISTURE SO I EXPECT
SCT-BKN CU AT THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER CLOUDS OVERHEAD. I DON/T
EXPECT ANY PRECIP AFTER 18Z OR SO IN NE PA/C NY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RDG AXIS WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN LAKES WITH A SFC RDG OVHD. SKIES WILL BE PC TO MO
CLR. ON THURSDAY 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO +12C WHICH TRANSLATES WITH
MIXING TO MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
FOR THURSDAY NGT...AGAIN FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED. FOR
FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATES SCT SHRA AND TSRA FORMING WITH CAPES
BTWN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG CAPES. THE NAM ALSO HAS CAPES ABV 1000
J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. BUT THE FORCING WILL BE MINIMAL AS THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE UPPER RDG AXIS. I COULD SEE AN ISLD SHRA
OR TSRA FORMING WITH LOCALLY MESOSCALE CRCLNS BUT THESE WILL BE
ISLD SO HAVE SLGHT CHC POPS...MAINLY OUR WRN CWA WHERE DEWPOINTS
AND CAPES WILL BE A BIT HIGHER.
FRIDAY NGT LOOKS FAIR AND DRY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
425 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO EXTENDED FORECAST JUST
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. AREA WILL REMAIN
UNDER A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES AND JUST LOW CHC POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS HUMIDITIES
INCREASE. NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. DRY AND
COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
2 PM UPDATE...
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKED GOOD. WARM AND DRY MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND THEN BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
VERY WARM WITH HUMIDITY THIS WEEKEND UNDER A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE JUST OF THE CWA IN SE CANADA
WHICH STAYS THERE ALL OF THE LONG TERM. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS
WHERE THIS SETS UP AND STAYS. MODELS DIFFER ON THIS. WPC LEANS ON
EURO WHICH KEEPS THE BOUNDARY IN CANADA WHILE THE GFS DROPS IT
INTO PA SUN AND MON. HAVE FOLLOWED WPC AND HAVE CHC POPS FAR NORTH
SAT NGT THEN EVERYONE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING. AT KRME/KSYR, A MID DECK WILL PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK
THEN JUST CI FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. A MID LEVEL WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE SRN TIER OF NYS IS PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION. AT KITH, LIGHT UNRESTRICTED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL 09Z THEN CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
WITH JUST CI EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. AT KELM/KBGM, UNRESTRICTED
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK WITH MVFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE AT KELM BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. CIGS WILL LIFT THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WITH JUST CI BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AT KAVP, A ROUND OF
VFR SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 12Z-15Z. CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT TO A MID DECK BY MID AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...
THU-SUN...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
342 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH TODAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL MOVE ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE FRONT BRINGING SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE ACROSS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON
THURSDAY BRINGING WARM AND DRY WEATHER WITH IT. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES REGION TO THE UPPER
MOHAWK VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS EARLY THIS
MORNING...ONE MOVING ACRS SC NY AND NE PA AND ANOTHER ONE ACRS NE
OH TO NW PA. THE FIRST BATCH OF PRECIP OVER SC NY/NE PA WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT IN ADVANCE OF A SHRT WAVE THAT WAS
MOVING ACRS THE ERN LAKES INTO NY STATE. THIS FEATURE WAS
SUPPORTING A SWRLY LOW-LEVEL WIND MAX WHICH WAS RISING
ISENTROPICALLY ACRS SC NY/NE PA AND LEADING TO A MORE STRATIFORM
RAIN. THIS WAVE WILL CONT EAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND TAKE THIS
PRECIPITATION EAST OF SC NY SO HAVE POPS FOR SHRA WINDING DOWN BY
ARND 12Z OR SO IN SC NY. RADAR SHOWS THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP IN
NW OH AND NW PA HEADING JUST S OF E TWD NE PA AND SULLIVAN CO NY
PRIMARILY. BELIEVE THE RAP HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THE NEXT PRECIP SHIELD BASED ON CURRENT RADAR DATA WHEN LOOKING AT
THE OTHER HI RES MODEL REFLECTIVITIES. THE PRECIP WAS MORE
CONVECTIVE IN NATURE IN NE OH/NW PA AS IT WAS BEING SUPPORTED BY
ANTHR LOW- LEVEL WIND MAX TIED TO A SMALL SHRT WAVE AT MID- LEVELS
MAINLY. THERE WAS MORE LL THETA-E ADVTN IN THIS AREA THAT WAS
DESTABLIZING THE AMS ABV A SFC FRNT WHICH WAS ACRS SERN OH TO SW
PA. SO THE LL WIND MAX WAS ADVECTING MOISTURE ABV THE SFC FRNT
LEADING TO ELEVATED CONVECTIVE SHRA AND ISLD TSRA. THIS WIND MAX
MOVES E THIS MORNING AND THE MOISTURE ADVTN WEAKENS SOME BUT THERE
WILL BE INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT THRU 12Z OVER NE PA. SO WE
THINK THE PRECIP WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM-ISH IN NATURE AS IT
WORKS INTO NE PA AND SERN NY BTWN 12Z AND 15Z. BY 15Z...THERE WILL
BE ENUF MIXING IN THE BNDRY LAYER SOUTH OF THE PRECIP TO DISRUPT
THIS LL WIND MAX WHICH WILL IN EFFECT CUT OFF THE ISENTROPIC LIFT.
THUS WE EXPECT THIS PRECIP WILL WEAKEN AND FALL APART BY 15-18Z
THE LATEST.
THEN FOR THE AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE ENUF DRY AIR IN THE LL/S TO
PRECLUDE MUCH CUMULUS FORMATION FROM NC NY TO THE CATSKILLS.
FARTHER W...THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE LL MOISTURE SO I EXPECT
SCT-BKN CU AT THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER CLOUDS OVERHEAD. I DON/T
EXPECT ANY PRECIP AFTER 18Z OR SO IN NE PA/C NY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RDG AXIS WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN LAKES WITH A SFC RDG OVHD. SKIES WILL BE PC TO MO
CLR. ON THURSDAY 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO +12C WHICH TRANSLATES WITH
MIXING TO MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
FOR THURSDAY NGT...AGAIN FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED. FOR
FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATES SCT SHRA AND TSRA FORMING WITH CAPES
BTWN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG CAPES. THE NAM ALSO HAS CAPES ABV 1000
J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. BUT THE FORCING WILL BE MINIMAL AS THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE UPPER RDG AXIS. I COULD SEE AN ISLD SHRA
OR TSRA FORMING WITH LOCALLY MESOSCALE CRCLNS BUT THESE WILL BE
ISLD SO HAVE SLGHT CHC POPS...MAINLY OUR WRN CWA WHERE DEWPOINTS
AND CAPES WILL BE A BIT HIGHER.
FRIDAY NGT LOOKS FAIR AND DRY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKED GOOD. WARM AND DRY MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND THEN BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
VERY WARM WITH HUMIDITY THIS WEEKEND UNDER A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE JUST OF THE CWA IN SE CANADA
WHICH STAYS THERE ALL OF THE LONG TERM. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS
WHERE THIS SETS UP AND STAYS. MODELS DIFFER ON THIS. WPC LEANS ON
EURO WHICH KEEPS THE BOUNDARY IN CANADA WHILE THE GFS DROPS IT
INTO PA SUN AND MON. HAVE FOLLOWED WPC AND HAVE CHC POPS FAR NORTH
SAT NGT THEN EVERYONE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING. AT KRME/KSYR, A MID DECK WILL PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK
THEN JUST CI FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. A MID LEVEL WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE SRN TIER OF NYS IS PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION. AT KITH, LIGHT UNRESTRICTED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL 09Z THEN CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
WITH JUST CI EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. AT KELM/KBGM, UNRESTRICTED
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK WITH MVFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE AT KELM BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. CIGS WILL LIFT THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WITH JUST CI BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AT KAVP, A ROUND OF
VFR SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 12Z-15Z. CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT TO A MID DECK BY MID AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...
THU-SUN...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
254 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH TODAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL MOVE ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE FRONT BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN NEW YORK
AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
ON THURSDAY BRINGING WARM AND DRY WEATHER WITH IT. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS EARLY THIS
MORNING...ONE MOVING ACRS SC NY AND NE PA AND ANOTHER ONE ACRS NE
OH TO NW PA. THE FIRST BATCH OF PRECIP OVER SC NY/NE PA WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT IN ADVANCE OF A SHRT WAVE THAT WAS
MOVING ACRS THE ERN LAKES INTO NY STATE. THIS FEATURE WAS
SUPPORTING A SWRLY LOW-LEVEL WIND MAX WHICH WAS RISING
ISENTROPICALLY ACRS SC NY/NE PA AND LEADING TO A MORE STRATIFORM
RAIN. THIS WAVE WILL CONT EAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND TAKE THIS
PRECIPITATION EAST OF SC NY SO HAVE POPS FOR SHRA WINDING DOWN BY
ARND 12Z OR SO IN SC NY. RADAR SHOWS THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP IN
NW OH AND NW PA HEADING JUST S OF E TWD NE PA AND SULLIVAN CO NY
PRIMARILY. BELIEVE THE RAP HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THE NEXT PRECIP SHIELD BASED ON CURRENT RADAR DATA WHEN LOOKING AT
THE OTHER HI RES MODEL REFLECTIVITIES. THE PRECIP WAS MORE
CONVECTIVE IN NATURE IN NE OH/NW PA AS IT WAS BEING SUPPORTED BY
ANTHR LOW- LEVEL WIND MAX TIED TO A SMALL SHRT WAVE AT MID- LEVELS
MAINLY. THERE WAS MORE LL THETA-E ADVTN IN THIS AREA THAT WAS
DESTABLIZING THE AMS ABV A SFC FRNT WHICH WAS ACRS SERN OH TO SW
PA. SO THE LL WIND MAX WAS ADVECTING MOISTURE ABV THE SFC FRNT
LEADING TO ELEVATED CONVECTIVE SHRA AND ISLD TSRA. THIS WIND MAX
MOVES E THIS MORNING AND THE MOISTURE ADVTN WEAKENS SOME BUT THERE
WILL BE INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT THRU 12Z OVER NE PA. SO WE
THINK THE PRECIP WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM-ISH IN NATURE AS IT
WORKS INTO NE PA AND SERN NY BTWN 12Z AND 15Z. BY 15Z...THERE WILL
BE ENUF MIXING IN THE BNDRY LAYER SOUTH OF THE PRECIP TO DISRUPT
THIS LL WIND MAX WHICH WILL IN EFFECT CUT OFF THE ISENTROPIC LIFT.
THUS WE EXPECT THIS PRECIP WILL WEAKEN AND FALL APART BY 15-18Z
THE LATEST.
THEN FOR THE AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE ENUF DRY AIR IN THE LL/S TO
PRECLUDE MUCH CUMULUS FORMATION FROM NC NY TO THE CATSKILLS.
FARTHER W...THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE LL MOISTURE SO I EXPECT
SCT-BKN CU AT THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER CLOUDS OVERHEAD. I DON/T
EXPECT ANY PRECIP AFTER 18Z OR SO IN NE PA/C NY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS WILL BE WEAKENING AND PUSHING SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS
NORTHERN PA AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY COOLER
DAY ACROSS THOSE AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A RETURN TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WARM AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKED GOOD. WARM AND DRY MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND THEN BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
VERY WARM WITH HUMIDITY THIS WEEKEND UNDER A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE JUST OF THE CWA IN SE CANADA
WHICH STAYS THERE ALL OF THE LONG TERM. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS
WHERE THIS SETS UP AND STAYS. MODELS DIFFER ON THIS. WPC LEANS ON
EURO WHICH KEEPS THE BOUNDARY IN CANADA WHILE THE GFS DROPS IT
INTO PA SUN AND MON. HAVE FOLLOWED WPC AND HAVE CHC POPS FAR NORTH
SAT NGT THEN EVERYONE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING. AT KRME/KSYR, A MID DECK WILL PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK
THEN JUST CI FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. A MID LEVEL WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE SRN TIER OF NYS IS PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION. AT KITH, LIGHT UNRESTRICTED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL 09Z THEN CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
WITH JUST CI EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. AT KELM/KBGM, UNRESTRICTED
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK WITH MVFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE AT KELM BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. CIGS WILL LIFT THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WITH JUST CI BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AT KAVP, A ROUND OF
VFR SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 12Z-15Z. CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT TO A MID DECK BY MID AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...
THU-SUN...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
135 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL MOVE ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE FRONT BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN TO SOUTHERN NEW
YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY
BRINGING WARM DRY WEATHER. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH-BASED, LIGHT SHOWERS ARE SLIDING EASTWARD TOWARD THE TWIN
TIERS, BUT PROVIDING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL. LATEST HRRR
AND RAP GENERATE QPF TOTALS BELOW PREVIOUS FORECAST, AND EVEN
THESE MIGHT BE TOO HIGH GIVEN THE ONE AND THREE HOUR RAINFALL
RATES DEPICTED FROM THE RADAR.
HAVE LOWERED QPF TOTALS THROUGH SUNRISE AND REDUCED THE POPS.
PREV DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST QUESTION FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE IMPACT OF A SHORT
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF RAIN MOVING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES TOWARD NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHERN NY. THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND SREF ARE ALL IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PA THIS EVENING
WITH LOWER CHANCES FARTHER NORTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. THE IDEA THAT
RAIN MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH VERY FAR EAST OF I-81 IN NY STATE
APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THAT AREA OVERNIGHT. LATEST RADAR
ANIMATIONS ARE ALREADY INDICATING A SLUG OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
MOVING FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO ACROSS SW NY AND NORTHWEST PA. THE
LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATE THAT SOME OF THIS RAIN WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NY THROUGH MID- EVENING REACHING THE
CATSKILLS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THIS SCENARIO IS A BIT FARTHER NORTH
AND EAST THAN SOME OF THE LOWER-RESOLUTION OPERATIONAL MODELS.
BASED ON ALL OF THIS HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT FOR NORTHERN PA AND THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY WITH
JUST CHC POPS FARTHER NORTH. THUNDER CHANCES LOOK LOW WITH NO
INSTABILITY SHOWING UP ON ANY MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BE WEAKENING AND PUSHING SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS
NORTHERN PA AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY COOLER
DAY ACROSS THOSE AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A RETURN TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WARM AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKED GOOD. WARM AND DRY MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND THEN BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
VERY WARM WITH HUMIDITY THIS WEEKEND UNDER A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE JUST OF THE CWA IN SE CANADA
WHICH STAYS THERE ALL OF THE LONG TERM. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS
WHERE THIS SETS UP AND STAYS. MODELS DIFFER ON THIS. WPC LEANS ON
EURO WHICH KEEPS THE BOUNDARY IN CANADA WHILE THE GFS DROPS IT
INTO PA SUN AND MON. HAVE FOLLOWED WPC AND HAVE CHC POPS FAR NORTH
SAT NGT THEN EVERYONE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING. AT KRME/KSYR, A MID DECK WILL PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK
THEN JUST CI FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. A MID LEVEL WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE SRN TIER OF NYS IS PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION. AT KITH, LIGHT UNRESTRICTED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL 09Z THEN CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
WITH JUST CI EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. AT KELM/KBGM, UNRESTRICTED
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK WITH MVFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE AT KELM BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. CIGS WILL LIFT THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WITH JUST CI BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AT KAVP, A ROUND OF
VFR SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 12Z-15Z. CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT TO A MID DECK BY MID AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...
THU-SUN...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...DJP/MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
402 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
TIMING AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL BE
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE PERIOD.
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS STILL DOWN OVER COLORADO AND WESTERN
KANSAS...BUT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY
MOVED INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH SOME 850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION. THIS WAA SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. THE RAP HAS DONE A DECENT JOB OF CAPTURING THE
LEADING BAND...AND IT HAS A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE
WAA BAND WHICH SEEMS TO FIT RADAR OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AT THE CURRENT
TIME. THINK THAT THE REALLY WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NEB/SD AND WE GET MORE WIDESPREAD UPPER
FORCING. CONTINUED THE TREND OF HOLDING OFF ON THE CATEGORICAL
POPS UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF ELEVATED CAPE
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OBSERVED...SO WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION FOR THIS MORNING AND THEN MATCH THUNDER
TO SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS WE GET SOME SFC BASED CAPE MOVING
INTO THE REGION. CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING A
HUGE AMOUNT TODAY...BUT GIVEN THAT WE ARE STILL IN THE 50S AND
EVEN 60S THE WARM START WILL HELP US REACH THE 70S AGAIN.
TONIGHT...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT INTO THE CWA...WEAKENING
AS IT MOVES THROUGH. EVEN WITH THE WEAKENING UPPER SYSTEM THERE
SHOULD STILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND
CONTINUED WITH HIGH POPS THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CANADA BY THURSDAY AND PHASE
WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE. THAT SHOULD HELP PUSH A COLD
FRONT INTO THE CWA FOR THURSDAY...AND THERE SHOULD BE CONTINUED
PRECIP WITH THE FRONT. THE NAM BRINGS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE BEHIND
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WHICH SETS OFF A LOT OF QPF ALONG THE
FRONT...BUT IS THE ODD MODEL OUT. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGH POPS
TRANSITIONING OVER TO THE EASTERN CWA AS PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY DROP IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CWA AS THE FRONT COMES DOWN.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS BRING THROUGH
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SO CONTINUED TO LINGER SHOWERS AT
LEAST OVER THE EASTERN CWA. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER AS THERE
SEEMS TO BE GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850MB TEMPS BELOW ZERO COMING
DOWN...ALTHOUGH FORTUNATELY AFTER THE PRECIP ENDS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. MOST OF FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY BUT COOL AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE USA. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER THAN THE
PAST WEEK AND HIGHS SHOULD ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 50S AND COULD DROP
BELOW FREEZING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SPLIT FLOW WAS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH
NORTHERN STREAM OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. LONG WAVE TROUGH/RIDGE OVER THE GULF
OF AK/WESTERN CANADA WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE WEST COAST/CENTRAL
PLAINS RESPECTIVELY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON MON, BUT SURFACE FEATURES WERE FARTHER NORTH AND SLOWER
ON THE ECMWF. WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM, THE PATTERN BECAME 180
DEGREES OUT OF PHASE FOR MON AND TUE. THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING
FASTER WHILE THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE
RUNS. WILL BLEND THE ECMWF AND GFS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL REMAIN VFR. MVFR (POSSIBLY IFR) CIGS
WILL INVADE THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY MORNING. -RA
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE WED MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
341 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAINS ON INCOMING PRECIPITATION AND THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FIRST WAVE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVED INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
SHORTLY AROUND 07 UTC. THE HRRR DID A DECENT JOB OF TIMING THIS
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND HAS IT DIMINISHING AS IT
PROGRESSES NORTH. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH
THE LINE AND HAVE KEPT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT LINTON SHOWED HEAVY
RAIN WHILE A SHOWER WENT OVER AND REPORTED 0.20 INCHES. AT FIRST
GLANCE IT APPEARS THIS SYSTEM MAY WELL BRING THE MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL FORECASTED.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO WESTERN ND AROUND 18 UTC
WEDNESDAY AND INTO CENTRAL ND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
COINCIDE WITH 2-3 MORE EMBEDDED IMPULSES LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS BEFORE THE MAIN WAVE MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL SHOULD BE EXPERIENCED IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE...WITH STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS STILL DEPICTED FROM 0.5-1.5 INCHES. WITH BOTH THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF GENERATING 900-1200 J/KG OF MUCAPE OVER CENTRAL AND EAST
ALONG TO EAST OF THE FROPA...LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL (GREATER
THAN AN INCH) WITH CONVECTION WILL BE VERY POSSIBLE CONSIDERING
PWATS AROUND 1.25".
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
EXITING SYSTEM THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LEAVE BEHIND BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK FOR MAINLY SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY WANE THURSDAY/THURSDAY EVENING FROM
WEST TO EAST AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES THURSDAY
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND +1C FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 30S. AREAS OF FROST STILL APPEAR LIKELY DURING THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL
REACH INTO THE LOWER 60S TUESDAY. DRY BUT COOL FOR FRIDAY...THEN
THE NEXT CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL EJECT OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY. THE LATEST GFS KEEPS
THE PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND JUST ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF
ALSO FOLLOWS THIS IDEA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THEN PUSHES
THE PRECIPITATION BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THE SUPERBLEND ADVERTISES A ECMWF SOLUTION DURING
THIS PERIOD. IF THIS DOES COME TRUE...850MB TEMPS OF -2C MAY YIELD
SOME WET SNOW. ANY SHIFT FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED
MONITORING AS PRECIPITATION TYPES AND CHANCES WOULD CHANGE. DRIER
WEATHER SLATED FOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL
MAINTAIN A SOUTHEAST WIND TONIGHT. LOW CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT WITH MVFR AND SCATTERED IFR CEILINGS SPREADING NORTH
INTO KDIK-KBIS-KJMS JUST AFTER 12 UTC AND KMOT-KISN AROUND 17
UTC. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WILL KEEP MVFR CEILINGS
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT IN ANY TAF AT THIS TIME.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...MM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
542 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. IT WILL
STAY MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WHAT WAS A FAIRLY CONSISTENT/HOMOGENOUS AREA OF RAIN HAS BROKEN
INTO MORE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AS IT HAS SLID INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND MID SUSQ VALEY. ONLY SAW ONE LTG STRIKE SO FAR THIS
MORNING...BUT SOME OF THE CELLS ARE CARRYING 50 DBZS AND HAVE A
SLIGHT CHC TO PRODUCE THUNDER. TINY DISCRETE CELLS IN THE SRN MTNS
ARE MOVING QUICKLY AS ARE THE OTHER SHOWERS. THEREFORE LITTLE
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN EXISTS. THE RADAR ESTIMATES OVER THE PAST 6
HRS HAS A STRIPE OF ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...BUT NOTHING MORE
SIGNIFICANT. HRRR AND RUC SLIDE THE CURRENT PRECIP FAIRLY STRAIGHT
TO THE EAST...WHILE THE NAM AND HI RES ARW ALLOW THE QPF TO EXPAND
A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTH. HAVE PAINTED HIGH POPS FOR THE NRN HALF
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND FOLLOWED THE MAJORITY OPINION IN
CARRYING THE BULK OF THE PRECIP TO THE EAST. A LULL IN PRECIP
SHOULD OCCUR FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY POP SHOWERS/TSRA - MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
COVERAGE WILL BE RATHER SPARSE...THOUGH. CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH IN
THE CENTRAL AND EAST...AND WILL PROBABLY KEEP IT LARGELY TOO
STABLE/COOL TO GENERATE MUCH INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH A
SMALL POP FOR THE AFTN. MAXES IN THE N WILL BE IN THE L-M60S...BUT
GET INTO THE M-U70S IN THE S. THESE ARE PRETTY NORMAL NUMBERS. THIS
WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY BY FAR FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS OR MORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL DWINDLE IN THE EVENING...GENERALLY BEING CONFINED TO
THE LAURELS/SC MTNS AFTER DARK. THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE
RAIN-FREE...BUT CLOUDS COULD CONTINUE TO COVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE WEST AND FOG IS POSSIBLE IF
THE CLEARING CAN DEVELOP. MINS WILL STICK ABOUT 10F ABOVE NORMALS
SINCE THE CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO HANG ON.
A RIDGE PUMPS UP OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND SHOULD CUT OFF THE MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE
WEST. BUT BEFORE THE MOISTURE DECREASES TOO MUCH...THE DAYTIME
HEATING ON THURS COULD POP ISOLD/SCT AFTN SHRA OFF OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN - MAINLY ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND ESP THE
LAURELS. WILL STICK WITH A 20-30 POP THERE. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER
IS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THAT GENERAL AREA...NOT ENOUGH OF A CHC EXISTS
TO MENTION AT THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL RISE AS MUCH OF THE MORNING
CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP. GIVEN THE ALREADY-WARM START TO THE
DAY...AFTN TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN GET 10F ABOVE NORMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO
WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION FRI-SUN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST NDFD POPS ARE MON-TUE. CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPERATURES DROPS OFF TO AVG BY THIS TIME WITH MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES SOMEWHAT AT ODDS WITH RESPECT TO MAINTAINING A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE VS. A COOLER MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL HAVE
NOT DEVIATED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND
FAVORED MORE OF A MIXED BLEND FOR DAYS 7 AND 8.
SUBTROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO
STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR
ONSHORE FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ADJUSTED 09Z TAFS FOR CURRENT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS N PA WITH EAST...WEST COLD FRONT. AN
ISOLATED LOW TOP THUNDERSTORM AT TIMES BASED ON ECHO TOPS. EXPECT
BFD TO HAVE THE MAIN CHANCE TO HAVE IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY SAG TO THE SOUTH...AS
FRONT BECOMES MORE NW TO SE LATER TODAY. THUS OTHER SITES MAY
SEE LOWER CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THU INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NW...AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO CENTRAL PA.
OUTLOOK...
THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.
FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.
SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
445 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. IT WILL
STAY MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WHAT WAS A FAIRLY CONSISTENT/HOMOGENOUS AREA OF RAIN HAS BROKEN
INTO MORE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AS IT HAS SLID INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND MID SUSQ VALEY. ONLY SAW ONE LTG STRIKE SO FAR THIS
MORNING...BUT SOME OF THE CELLS ARE CARRYING 50 DBZS AND HAVE A
SLIGHT CHC TO PRODUCE THUNDER. TINY DISCRETE CELLS IN THE SRN MTNS
ARE MOVING QUICKLY AS ARE THE OTHER SHOWERS. THEREFORE LITTLE
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN EXISTS. THE RADAR ESTIMATES OVER THE PAST 6
HRS HAS A STRIPE OF ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...BUT NOTHING MORE
SIGNIFICANT. HRRR AND RUC SLIDE THE CURRENT PRECIP FAIRLY STRAIGHT
TO THE EAST...WHILE THE NAM AND HI RES ARW ALLOW THE QPF TO EXPAND
A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTH. HAVE PAINTED HIGH POPS FOR THE NRN HALF
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND FOLLOWED THE MAJORITY OPINION IN
CARRYING THE BULK OF THE PRECIP TO THE EAST. A LULL IN PRECIP
SHOULD OCCUR FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY POP SHOWERS/TSRA - MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
COVERAGE WILL BE RATHER SPARSE...THOUGH. CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH IN
THE CENTRAL AND EAST...AND WILL PROBABLY KEEP IT LARGELY TOO
STABLE/COOL TO GENERATE MUCH INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH A
SMALL POP FOR THE AFTN. MAXES IN THE N WILL BE IN THE L-M60S...BUT
GET INTO THE M-U70S IN THE S. THESE ARE PRETTY NORMAL NUMBERS. THIS
WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY BY FAR FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS OR MORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL DWINDLE IN THE EVENING...GENERALLY BEING CONFINED TO
THE LAURELS/SC MTNS AFTER DARK. THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE
RAIN-FREE...BUT CLOUDS COULD CONTINUE TO COVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE WEST AND FOG IS POSSIBLE IF
THE CLEARING CAN DEVELOP. MINS WILL STICK ABOUT 10F ABOVE NORMALS
SINCE THE CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO HANG ON.
A RIDGE PUMPS UP OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND SHOULD CUT OFF THE MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE
WEST. BUT BEFORE THE MOISTURE DECREASES TOO MUCH...THE DAYTIME
HEATING ON THURS COULD POP ISOLD/SCT AFTN SHRA OFF OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN - MAINLY ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND ESP THE
LAURELS. WILL STICK WITH A 20-30 POP THERE. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER
IS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THAT GENERAL AREA...NOT ENOUGH OF A CHC EXISTS
TO MENTION AT THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL RISE AS MUCH OF THE MORNING
CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP. GIVEN THE ALREADY-WARM START TO THE
DAY...AFTN TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN GET 10F ABOVE NORMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO
WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION FRI-SUN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST NDFD POPS ARE MON-TUE. CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPERATURES DROPS OFF TO AVG BY THIS TIME WITH MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES SOMEWHAT AT ODDS WITH RESPECT TO MAINTAINING A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE VS. A COOLER MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL HAVE
NOT DEVIATED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND
FAVORED MORE OF A MIXED BLEND FOR DAYS 7 AND 8.
SUBTROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO
STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR
ONSHORE FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS N PA WITH EAST...WEST COLD FRONT. AN
ISOLATED LOW TOP THUNDERSTORM AT TIMES BASED ON ECHO TOPS. EXPECT
BFD TO HAVE THE MAIN CHANCE TO HAVE IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY SAG TO THE SOUTH...AS
FRONT BECOMES MORE NW TO SE LATER TODAY. THUS OTHER SITES MAY
SEE LOWER CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THU INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NW...AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO CENTRAL PA.
OUTLOOK...
THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.
FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.
SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1218 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
.AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE SHORT-TERM AND THE POSSIBLE CONTINUED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KAUS. MOST ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO
PUSH NORTHEAST OF THE TERMINAL AND WILL BEGIN THE TAF FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS WITH -SHRA PREVAILING WITH VICINITY THUNDER AND THEN
WITH ONLY VCSH FROM 8Z-11Z. CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TONIGHT FOR ANY
MENTION FOR THE OTHER TAF SITES. THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE
CEILINGS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. PRESENTLY...KDRT IS THE ONLY
SITE WITH IFR CONDITIONS...BUT THE REST OF THE TERMINALS SHOULD
FOLLOW SHORTLY. THERE COULD BE SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AS
WELL TOWARDS DAYBREAK...BUT PERSISTENT WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
SHOULD KEEP THINGS FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF CONTROL. CEILINGS
SHOULD LIFT AROUND NOON AND THEN THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
WILL HANDLE THE THREAT WITH A VCSH FOR NOW AS PROBABILITIES ARE
TOO LOW TO MENTION THUNDER FOR SEVERAL HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF
MVFR/IFR IS EXPECTED TOMORROW NIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1047 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/
UPDATE...
EARLIER EVENING MODEL RUNS OF RAP AND HRRR DEPICTED A MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND SHORT-TERM FLASH FLOOD THREAT ALONG I-35 BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST AND NORTH. MID EVENING RUNS ARE NOW HOLDING BACK THE
HIGHER QPF VALUES CLOSER TO I-35 AND KEEPING A SUSTAINED THREAT
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. AREAS FARTHER TO THE EAST WERE INCLUDED IN
CASE THE TRAINING AREA SOLIDIFIES INTO A COMPLEX AS HAS BEEN
SUGGESTED IN A RECENT NCEP MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION. THE
HRRR CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A FEW STORMS FOLLOWING RIGHT MOVING
SUPERCELL PATHS...SO THERE MAY STILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS. HOWEVER...WILL DISCREDIT MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
SEVERE THREAT FOR NOW AS THIS BEHAVIOR IS NOT SUGGESTED BY
EVENING RADAR TRENDS OR SPC MESOANALYSIS TOOLS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 819 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/
UPDATE... /LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE E OF 281...N OF I-10/
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONCENTRATING ALONG A
CONVEYOR BELT OF GULF MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF
AN UPPER LOW LIFTING NE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FINER RESOLUTION
MODELS HAVE SHOWN INCREASED RAINFALL INTENSITIES AND QPF OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL TX...WITH INITIAL SOLUTIONS WIDELY VARIED EARLY
TODAY...NOW CONVERGING INTO THE WEAK TRAINING ECHO PATTERN SEEN
THIS EVENING. FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS WILL LIKELY CONCENTRATE
ACTIVITY ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 INTO LATE TONIGHT. POPS WERE
INCREASED OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN SECTIONS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MENTIONED. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK...BUT MAY NEED TO MAKE A LATE EVENING ADJUSTMENT TO POPS
SHOULD THE TRAINING PATTERN SHIFT OR DIMINISH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH FLOODING THREATS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO BE TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT A FFA.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/
UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 THIS
EVENING. WE HAVE INCLUDED -SHRA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR...THEN TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSRA BETWEEN 03Z-06Z. FOR
NOW...WE DID NOT INCLUDE A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION AT KDRT AS IT
APPEARS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ISOLATED. CIGS WILL DROP INTO IFR
OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN IFR THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF WEDNESDAY
MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING WILL IMPROVE SKIES BACK TO VFR
AFTER 18Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO THE BIG BEND WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE 250MB JET
WAS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...BUT WAS LESS THAN 50 KTS. THE JET
MARKED THE BOUNDARY OF MOIST MID-LEVEL AIR TO THE SOUTH AND DRIER
AIR TO THE NORTH. AT THE SURFACE WINDS CONTINUED FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AND DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WERE FROM THE LOW TO UPPER
60S. THERE WAS A DRYLINE FROM CHILDRESS TO MARATHON. IN THE PRE-
FIRST PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE
DRYLINE AND ARE MOVING TOWARD THE EAST. SOME STORMS MAY MOVE INTO
OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. STORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO MOISTURE
RICH ENVIRONMENT AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. FORECAST CAPE IS 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. SOME STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL THE MOST LIKELY THREAT.
DURING THE FIRST PERIOD STARTING THIS EVENING...THE FOUR CORNERS
TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
FLATTEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE RIDGE. ANOTHER LOW WILL DIG SOUTHWARD
OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
TEXAS. THE LOW LEVELS WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING. THE DRYLINE WILL REMAIN OVER WEST
TEXAS AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE STRONG
MOIST FLOW WILL KEEP THE DRYLINE WEST OF OUR CWA. WE WILL HAVE
ANOTHER LOW CHANCE DAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITHOUT ANY STRONG
TRIGGER. WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 70 THERE WILL BE
STRONG INSTABILITY AND ONLY A WEAK CAP. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. SPC HAS THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR AREA IN
THE MARGINAL RISK FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD OVER THE WEST COAST
THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TO THE EAST FRIDAY AND
THEN TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN
SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE ONLY SURFACE FEATURE
WILL BE THE DRYLINE TO THE WEST AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST KEEPING IT THERE. THIS WILL MEAN
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LOW CHANCE POPS WITH A CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...BUT NOT TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION. INSTABILITY
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG STORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS
MAY PROVIDE A BETTER FOCUS FOR STORMS OVER A WIDER AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 71 84 70 83 71 / 20 30 20 40 30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 71 84 71 84 72 / 20 30 20 40 30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 71 84 71 83 71 / 20 30 20 40 30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 69 82 69 81 69 / 20 30 20 40 30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 71 89 71 88 71 / 30 20 20 30 30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 70 83 69 82 70 / 20 30 20 40 30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 71 85 70 84 71 / 20 30 20 40 30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 71 84 70 83 72 / 20 30 20 40 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 72 85 72 85 72 / 20 20 10 30 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 71 84 71 84 72 / 20 30 20 40 30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 72 85 71 85 72 / 20 30 20 40 30
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BASTROP...CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...FAYETTE...
GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...LAVACA...LEE...TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
339 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015
AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM LARAMIE COUNTY
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NIOBRARA AND CONVERSE COUNTIES. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEFORMATION AREA ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
MIDLVL LOW THAT IS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. NOT EXPECTING THIS
BAND TO MOVE MUCH THROUGH THE MORNING...SO THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS
OF THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH 18Z. IT WILL REMAIN A
STEADY LIGHT RAIN WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF ANY TSTMS...BUT STILL
COULD SEE WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.50 INCHES ALONG AND EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE IN SOUTHEAST WY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA BY THIS AFTN.
THUS...THIS AREA OF ENHANCED VERTICAL ASCENT WILL SHIFT INTO THE
NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AFTER 18Z. WE MAY ACTUALLY SEE SOME
PEAKS OF SUNSHINE OVER SOUTHEAST WY BY MIDDAY AND BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTN. COULD
SEE AN ISOLATED TSTM WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING WITH A DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND
IT AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL REALLY DECREASE AFTER THE LATE EVENING.
WITH DECREASING MOISTURE LEVELS AND A GENERALLY STABLE
AIRMASS...WILL SEE A DECREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...MOST NOTABLE TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. AREAS
ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER IN SOUTHEAST WY WILL SEE THE BEST
INSTABILITY ON THURS AFTN (CAPE VALUES OF 300-600 J/KG) SO SCT
STORMS WILL DEVELOP THERE. THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN AND HIGHER PRESSURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL MAINTAIN NORTHEAST TO EAST UPSLOPE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. SREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AREAS OF FOG COULD BE A
CONCERN ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE. WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT LOW
CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. ONCE AGAIN...THE
BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL EXIST ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH THE AFTN...AND THEN POTENTIALLY SPREAD
EASTWARD TO THE PLAINS BY THE EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DEALING WITH A
MAJOR WINTER STORM THIS WEEKEND. FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH
SNOW LEVELS AND AMOUNTS ALONG WITH TIMING OF RAIN.
STARTING OFF FRIDAY NIGHT...AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN STATIONARY ALONG THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE...THROUGH CENTRAL COLORADO...UP INTO WESTERN WYOMING.
PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO
THE FRONT RANGE AND INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING. THE CWFA IS SQUARE IN
THE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AT 500MBS AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN UTAH, WE SHOULD BE SEEING
WIDESPREAD RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN VERY SIMILAR IN THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW
INTO WESTERN COLORADO SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL
APPEARS LIKELY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. VERY
STRONG 700MB SOUTHEAST UPSLOPING WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON THE
ORDER OF 40 TO 45KTS WILL ENHANCE RAIN AMOUNTS ALONG THE EASTERN
FOOTHILLS AND POSSIBLY THE EASTERN PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
WENT AHEAD AND ADDED POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE RAINS IN THE FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
COLDER 700MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON TRACK FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY ECMWF SHOWING -4 TO -6C ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AT
00Z...DECREASING TO -6 TO -8C SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST 850MB
WINDS INCREASE TO 45-50KTS ON THE ECMWF AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS
INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. ADDED CHANCES FOR MODERATE AND HEAVY SNOW
INTO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS FREEZING LEVELS
DROP TO 5500 FEET AND POSSIBLY LOWER DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WILL
ISSUE AN SPS ON THIS UPCOMING EVENT TO ALERT CUSTOMERS OF
SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER.
CONTINUED TO CUT GUIDANCE SIGNIFICANTLY ON TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AS
THE SNOW WILL START SATURDAY NIGHT AND ENVISION IT LASTING MOST OF
THE DAY SUNDAY. WILL PROBABLY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S FOR
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING...WITH UPPER 30S/LOW 40S IN THE
PANHANDLE. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF VERY SLOW MOVING THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW EASTWARD...SO SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
FORECAST QPF GUIDANCE IS SCARY...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOWING 1.5-2.0 INCHES OF LIQUID SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. EVEN A 10 TO 1 RATIO ON SNOW WOULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL. THEN ADD 35 TO 40 MPH NORTHEAST WINDS ON TOP OF THAT AND
WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A VERY DANGEROUS CONDITION.
BY MONDAY MORNING...ECMWF HAS THE UPPER LOW IN EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES OF -8 TO -10C OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS APPEAR LIKELY MONDAY MORNING THAT
WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.
SINCE THE EVENT IS STILL 4 DAYS OUT...CONDITIONS COULD CHANGE. THE
LOW COULD TRACK FURTHER NORTH AND THEN WE WOULD BE DRY SLOTTED. IF
CURRENT TRACKS THOUGH FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE AS THEY HAVE
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS THOUGH...DO BELIEVE THIS COULD BE THE
BIGGEST SNOW STORM THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR QUITE A WHILE HERE IN
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. COULD BE LOOKING AT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALL DAY SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF OUR SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AIRPORTS. LACK OF AVAILABLE HRRR GUIDANCE
HAS US AT LESS THAN HIGH CONFIDENCE. PERSISTENCE WOULD INDICATE
LOW CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUING.
AT LEAST THROUGH THE 18Z TIMEFRAME.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015
A COOL AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS VERY
LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE REGION BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD
AND LARGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...ZF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1104 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE HAS EXPIRED.
FOG WILL BE MUCH OF LOCALIZED THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE CENTER OF
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA. INCREASING RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD
KEEP DENSE FOG FROM SETTLING BACK INTO THE LARAMIE RANGE. MODELS
ARE SHOWING WINDS SHIFTING TOWARDS A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE DIRECTION
WHICH WILL MAKE FOG MUCH LESS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT. MODELS MAY BE
A BIT PREMATURE TURNING WINDS TO THE WEST BUT IT SHOULD OCCUR
SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOOKING MUCH LESS
LIKELY TONIGHT SO HAVE TAKEN THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015
MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION NOTED ON WATER VAPOR AND MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY
SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY NORTH OUT OF THE PUEBLO AREA WITH BANDED
RAINS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS
FEATURE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA OVER THE
NEXT 12-18 HOURS. HIGHEST POPS ARE BEING ADVERTISED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES THROUGH TONIGHT. IN THE VERY NEAR
TERM...UPSLOPE SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS INDUCED AREAS OF
DENSE FOG AND DRIZZLE ACROSS LARAMIE COUNTY WYOMING...WITH LOWEST
VISIBILITIES BEING SEEN AROUND AND THE SOUTH AND WEST OF CHEYENNE
IMPACTING INTERSTATES 80 AND 25. EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
THROUGH 6 PM MDT FOR THESE AREAS...AND EVENING WATCH WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR TRENDS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WHEN THE RAINS MOVE IN
FROM THE SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING...THAT WILL START TO SHUT THE
FOG PROCESS DOWN A BIT...OR AT LEAST INCREASE VISIBILITIES ABOVE
1/4 MILE.
ON THE LARGER SCALE...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT KEEPING THE
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW GOING THROUGH THURSDAY WITH AN INITIAL
SHORTWAVE TRANSITING OUR FORECAST AREA TOMORROW MORNING...EXITING
TO THE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT
DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE DIVIDE TOMORROW...AND THAT SHOULD HELP
FOCUS A LITTLE MORE CONVECTION INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WE PEGGED
THE HIGHER POPS FOR MOSTLY RAIN/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW
MORNING THEN TAPERED POPS DOWN A BIT INTO CHANCE CATEGORY TOMORROW
EVENING...THEN BACK UP AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA OUT OF THE LARGER UPPER LOW
ACROSS CALIFORNIA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015
WET PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MUCH OF SUNDAY WITH SOME LULLS IN THE INTERIM BETWEEN PASSING
SHORTWAVES EJECTING NORTHEAST FROM AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE OVER
THE SW CONUS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE
WEEKEND AS IT FINALLY MOVES OUT ACROSS THE SRN ROCKYS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AS IT DOES SO A LEE
CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN OVER SE COLORADO LATE SATURDAY AND MOVE
NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY. THIS WILL DRAW COLDER
AIR SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA SAT NIGHT AND LIKELY CHANGE PCPN OVER TO
SNOW OVER THE MTNS INTO AT LEAST A PART OF THE ADJACENT HIGH
PLAINS. THIS ALONG WITH A HEALTHY BREEZE COULD MAKE FOR QUITE A
PROBLEM SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO
SEE HOW THIS DEVELOPS. REGARDLESS DECENT QPF LOOKING LIKELY OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE REGION.
SHOULD SEE CLEARING CONDITIONS LATER SUNDAY AS THE SFC/UPPER LOWS
MOVE FARTHER EAST OF THE CWA. SHORT UPPER RIDGING MOVE ACROSS
LATER MONDAY WITH SW FLOW ALOFT RETURNING ON TUESDAY. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY LOOK TO BE MILD AND MAINLY DRY WITH JUST SOME MTN SHOWERS
MAINLY ON TUESDAY WITH A PASSING DISTURBANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF OUR SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AIRPORTS. LACK OF AVAILABLE HRRR GUIDANCE
HAS US AT LESS THAN HIGH CONFIDENCE. PERSISTENCE WOULD INDICATE
LOW CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUING.
AT LEAST THROUGH THE 18Z TIMEFRAME.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 318 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015
WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW PARKED TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE 4
CORNERS REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...IT APPEARS A FAIRLY
WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR MOST PERIODS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. NOT EXPECTING ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND GIVEN THE WET AND COOL PATTERN IN PLACE.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...JG
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...JG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1030 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO SOUTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR
SUNSHINE WITH ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON EXPECTED TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS INCREASING OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 1030 AM EST...MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY, POPS AND WX WITH THIS
UPDATE LARGELY TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS BOUNDARY, MORNING VISIBLE DEPICTS A
PRETTY WELL- DEFINED GRADIENT IN DIABATIC HEATING ACROSS THE
REGION WITH CLEAR SKIES FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL
DISTRICT REGIONS NORTHWARD, WITH OVERCAST SKIES FROM GREENE AND
COLUMBIA COUNTIES IN NY AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY IN MA
SOUTHWARD. OCCASIONAL VERY LIGHT SHOWERS PER RADAR RETURNS. NO
MAJOR CHANGES TO OVERALL FORECAST THINKING REGARDING THESE
SHOWERS, AS LATEST 3-KM HRRR AND LOCAL WRF OUTPUT SHOWS THESE
SHOWERS PUSHING SOUTHWARD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SKY COVER DIFFERENCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, I
OPTED TO LOWER HIGHS IN THE SCHOHARIE AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEYS
INTO THE LITCHFIELD HILLS OF CT, BLENDING IN SOME OF THE COOLER
SREF MEAN AND MOS GUIDANCE VALUES. WITH THESE CHANGES, HIGHS RANGE
FROM THE LOW-MID 70S FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY AREA INTO SOUTHERN VT,
TO THE MID- UPPER 70S FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD AND MOHAWK VALLEY
NORTHWARD
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER...AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE...AS RIDGING
ESTABLISHES ITSELF ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL OFF FOR
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S IN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS TO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S IN VALLEY AREAS. HOWEVER...WITH
LOTS OF SUN EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...TEMPS WILL QUICKLY WARM THROUGH
THE MORNING...AND LOOK TO REACH AROUND 80 FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON /SOME UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS/.
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE
CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
OCCURRING...WITH UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S ONCE AGAIN.
850 HPA TEMPS WILL RISE TO 12-14 DEGREES C FOR FRIDAY. WITH LOTS
OF SUN CONTINUED TO OCCUR AND RISING HEIGHTS...MAX TEMPS WILL BE
EVEN WARMER. HIGHS LOOK TO REACH LOW TO MID 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS
WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF HUMIDITY AS WELL. THERE MAY BE A MORE
CLOUDS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING...BUT IT
WILL REMAIN DRY. TEMPS ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY FALL TO THE MID
50S TO LOW 60S THANKS TO THE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF HUMIDITY AND THE
MORE CLOUDS AROUND.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD PERSIST INTO MONDAY WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING THE REGION ITS FIRST
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SINCE THE ABOUT APRIL 21ST.
GUIDANCE INDICATES RIDGING SHOULD PERSIST OVER OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH A WEAK LOW MEANDERING AROUND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD FLATTEN WHILE
THE LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WEAKENS AND DRIFTS NORTHWARD. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND POSSIBLY OPENS
AS IT HEADS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE
WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE FLOW ALOFT WILL PARALLEL THE BOUNDARY CAUSING ITS TO
STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. THE LOCAL AREA WILL
REMAIN IN A MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST.
EXPECTING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS WITH THE BETTER CHANCES EXPECTED SUNDAY AS THE BOUNDARY
EDGES CLOSER.
AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES MONDAY
AND SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY RESULTING IN INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND THE GREATER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING 12Z/THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT HAS BECOME STALLED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA AND THE NEW YORK METROPOLITAN AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS RESULTING IN SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER THE LIKELIHOOD ANY SHOWERS
WILL IMPACT KPOU IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. OTHERWISE
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION
DECREASING AFTER SUNRISE. A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING ANY CUMULUS CLOUDS
WILL DISSIPATE AND THERE WILL BE CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS AREA EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...
THU-FRI-NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RH VALUES EACH AFTERNOON FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE REGION IS DRY...THERE ARE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...INCLUDING THE AREA
NEAR THE ROOSA GAP FIRE IN EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN ULSTER COUNTY. ANY
PRECIP LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT. THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL END
BY LATER THIS MORNING...WITH CLOUDS BREAKING FOR SUNSHINE OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH S-SW WINDS AT 5 MPH OR LESS.
RH VALUES SHOULD RECOVER NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION. DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN
DROP TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT...GENERALLY S TO SW AT 5
TO 10 MPH.
WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...RH VALUES LOOK TO ONLY DROP
TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT ON FRIDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ASIDE FROM A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS EARLY THIS
MORNING...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. TOTAL QPF OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THIS WEEKEND. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION AT ALL.
AS A RESULT...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL EITHER HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY
RECEDE THROUGH THE WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
650 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO
SOUTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR
SUNSHINE WITH ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON EXPECTED TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS INCREASING OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 640 AM EST...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AND NEARLY
STATIONARY BOUNDARY SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER PA AND
NJ. A DISTURBANCE IN THE MID LEVELS MOVING ALONG THIS SFC BOUNDARY
IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. KENX RADAR SHOWS THIS
ACTIVITY CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE CATSKILLS AND THROUGH
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. RAINFALL HAS BEEN FAIRLY LIGHT
IN INTENSITY SO FAR...AND IS HAVING A TOUGH TIME REACHING THE
GROUND IN SOME AREAS THANKS TO THE DRY LOW LEVELS. ANY AREAS THAT
DO SEE RAINFALL WILL ONLY PICK UP A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. THE
LATEST 3KM HRRR SHOWS THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD.
ANY SHOWERS SHOULD END BY ABOUT MID MORNING OR SO...AS THE WEAK
DISTURBANCE STARTS TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER FOR THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA. SKIES ARE ALREADY CLEARING OUT FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION ON NORTHWARD. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY TODAY. MOST AREAS LOOK TO BE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE AREA...INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BE
LOWER...SO MIXING WON/T BE QUITE AS DEEP AS RECENT DAYS.
STILL...TEMPS ALOFT ARE FAIRLY WARM...SO ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL DAY
CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER...AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE...AS RIDGING
ESTABLISHES ITSELF ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL OFF FOR
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S IN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS TO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S IN VALLEY AREAS. HOWEVER...WITH
LOTS OF SUN EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...TEMPS WILL QUICKLY WARM THROUGH
THE MORNING...AND LOOK TO REACH AROUND 80 FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON /SOME UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS/.
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE
CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
OCCURRING...WITH UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S ONCE AGAIN.
850 HPA TEMPS WILL RISE TO 12-14 DEGREES C FOR FRIDAY. WITH LOTS
OF SUN CONTINUED TO OCCUR AND RISING HEIGHTS...MAX TEMPS WILL BE
EVEN WARMER. HIGHS LOOK TO REACH LOW TO MID 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS
WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF HUMIDITY AS WELL. THERE MAY BE A MORE
CLOUDS BY FRIDAY AFTN WITH SOME DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING...BUT IT
WILL REMAIN DRY. TEMPS ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY FALL TO THE MID
50S TO LOW 60S THANKS TO THE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF HUMIDITY AND THE
MORE CLOUDS AROUND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD PERSIST INTO MONDAY WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING THE REGION ITS FIRST
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SINCE THE ABOUT APRIL 21ST.
GUIDANCE INDICATES RIDGING SHOULD PERSIST OVER OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH A WEAK LOW MEANDERING AROUND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD FLATTEN WHILE
THE LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WEAKENS AND DRIFTS NORTHWARD. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND POSSIBLY OPENS
AS IT HEADS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE
WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE FLOW ALOFT WILL PARALLEL THE BOUNDARY CAUSING ITS TO
STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. THE LOCAL AREA WILL
REMAIN IN A MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST.
EXPECTING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS WITH THE BETTER CHANCES EXPECTED SUNDAY AS THE BOUNDARY
EDGES CLOSER.
AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES MONDAY
AND SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY RESULTING IN INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND THE GREATER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING 12Z/THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT HAS BECOME STALLED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA AND THE NEW YORK METROPOLITAN AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS RESULTING IN SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER THE LIKELIHOOD ANY SHOWERS
WILL IMPACT KPOU IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. OTHERWISE
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION
DECREASING AFTER SUNRISE. A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING ANY CUMULUS CLOUDS
WILL DISSIPATE AND THERE WILL BE CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS AREA EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...
THU-FRI-NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
...LOW RH VALUES EACH AFTERNOON FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE REGION IS DRY...THERE ARE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...INCLUDING THE AREA
NEAR THE ROOSA GAP FIRE IN EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN ULSTER COUNTY. ANY
PRECIP LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT. THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL END
BY LATER THIS MORNING...WITH CLOUDS BREAKING FOR SUNSHINE OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH S-SW WINDS AT 5 MPH OR LESS.
RH VALUES SHOULD RECOVER NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION. DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN
DROP TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT...GENERALLY S TO SW AT 5
TO 10 MPH.
WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...RH VALUES LOOK TO ONLY DROP
TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT ON FRIDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ASIDE FROM A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS EARLY THIS
MORNING...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. TOTAL QPF OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THIS WEEKEND. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION AT ALL.
AS A RESULT...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL EITHER HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY
RECEDE THROUGH THE WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
640 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO
SOUTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR
SUNSHINE WITH ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON EXPECTED TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS INCREASING OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 640 AM EST...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AND NEARLY
STATIONARY BOUNDARY SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER PA AND
NJ. A DISTURBANCE IN THE MID LEVELS MOVING ALONG THIS SFC BOUNDARY
IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. KENX RADAR SHOWS THIS
ACTIVITY CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE CATSKILLS AND THROUGH
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. RAINFALL HAS BEEN FAIRLY LIGHT
IN INTENSITY SO FAR...AND IS HAVING A TOUGH TIME REACHING THE
GROUND IN SOME AREAS THANKS TO THE DRY LOW LEVELS. ANY AREAS THAT
DO SEE RAINFALL WILL ONLY PICK UP A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. THE
LATEST 3KM HRRR SHOWS THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD.
ANY SHOWERS SHOULD END BY ABOUT MID MORNING OR SO...AS THE WEAK
DISTURBANCE STARTS TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER FOR THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA. SKIES ARE ALREADY CLEARING OUT FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION ON NORTHWARD. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY TODAY. MOST AREAS LOOK TO BE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE AREA...INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BE
LOWER...SO MIXING WON/T BE QUITE AS DEEP AS RECENT DAYS.
STILL...TEMPS ALOFT ARE FAIRLY WARM...SO ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL DAY
CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER...AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE...AS RIDGING
ESTABLISHES ITSELF ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL OFF FOR
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S IN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS TO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S IN VALLEY AREAS. HOWEVER...WITH
LOTS OF SUN EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...TEMPS WILL QUICKLY WARM THROUGH
THE MORNING...AND LOOK TO REACH AROUND 80 FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON /SOME UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS/.
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE
CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
OCCURRING...WITH UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S ONCE AGAIN.
850 HPA TEMPS WILL RISE TO 12-14 DEGREES C FOR FRIDAY. WITH LOTS
OF SUN CONTINUED TO OCCUR AND RISING HEIGHTS...MAX TEMPS WILL BE
EVEN WARMER. HIGHS LOOK TO REACH LOW TO MID 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS
WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF HUMIDITY AS WELL. THERE MAY BE A MORE
CLOUDS BY FRIDAY AFTN WITH SOME DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING...BUT IT
WILL REMAIN DRY. TEMPS ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY FALL TO THE MID
50S TO LOW 60S THANKS TO THE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF HUMIDITY AND THE
MORE CLOUDS AROUND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD PERSIST INTO MONDAY WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING THE REGION ITS FIRST
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SINCE THE ABOUT APRIL 21ST.
GUIDANCE INDICATES RIDGING SHOULD PERSIST OVER OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH A WEAK LOW MEANDERING AROUND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD FLATTEN WHILE
THE LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WEAKENS AND DRIFTS NORTHWARD. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND POSSIBLY OPENS
AS IT HEADS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE
WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE FLOW ALOFT WILL PARALLEL THE BOUNDARY CAUSING ITS TO
STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. THE LOCAL AREA WILL
REMAIN IN A MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST.
EXPECTING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS WITH THE BETTER CHANCES EXPECTED SUNDAY AS THE BOUNDARY
EDGES CLOSER.
AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES MONDAY
AND SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY RESULTING IN INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND THE GREATER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING 06Z/THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT HAS BECOME STALLED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA AND THE NEW YORK METROPOLITAN AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS RESULTING IN SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER THE LIKELIHOOD ANY SHOWERS
WILL IMPACT KPOU IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. OTHERWISE MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION DECREASING
AFTER SUNRISE. A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING ANY CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE
AND CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NIGHT.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS AREA EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...
THU-FRI-NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUN NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
...LOW RH VALUES EACH AFTERNOON FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE REGION IS DRY...THERE ARE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...INCLUDING THE AREA
NEAR THE ROOSA GAP FIRE IN EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN ULSTER COUNTY. ANY
PRECIP LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT. THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL END
BY LATER THIS MORNING...WITH CLOUDS BREAKING FOR SUNSHINE OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH S-SW WINDS AT 5 MPH OR LESS.
RH VALUES SHOULD RECOVER NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION. DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN
DROP TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT...GENERALLY S TO SW AT 5
TO 10 MPH.
WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...RH VALUES LOOK TO ONLY DROP
TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT ON FRIDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ASIDE FROM A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS EARLY THIS
MORNING...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. TOTAL QPF OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THIS WEEKEND. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION AT ALL.
AS A RESULT...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL EITHER HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY
RECEDE THROUGH THE WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
950 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
.DISCUSSION...
...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE TODAY WILL BRING ROUGH
SURF...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS...MINOR BEACH EROSION...AND A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG EAST CENTRAL FL BEACHES...
...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST OF
BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES INTO THE AFTERNOON...
CURRENTLY/TODAY...MID-UPPER TROUGHING JUST OFF OF THE ECFL COAST
THIS MORNING. VISIBLE SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING INTERESTING
SWIRL 40-50 MILES OFF OF JUPITER INLET THIS MORNING. DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST FL PENINSULA REMAINS FORECAST TO LIFT
NNE`WRD THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS CURRENT N/NE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY BACK MORE NWRLY. WINDS REMAIN FORECAST TO APPROACH THE
BREEZY CATEGORY INTO THIS AFTERNOON BUT CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION MAY
ALTER THESE FIELDS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER ALONG THE COAST.
THE LOCAL WRF REMAINS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE LOCAL HRRR IN
DEVELOPING SCATTERED SHRA/ISOLD TSRA INLAND FROM THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL LIFT NE OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR WRAPS
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. WILL KEEP SOME LOW EVENING CSTL
SHOWER CHCS THAT SHOULD END BY MID TO LATE EVENING AS LOW LVL FLOW
BECOMES NW AND DRIER AIR MOVES TWD THE AREA FROM THE NRN PENINSULA.
AT THE BEACHES ROUGH SURF...A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AND A
DEVELOPING LONG SHORE CURRENT WILL BE PRESENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MINOR BEACH EROSION EXPECTED. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECAST
CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS WELL
INTERIOR AREAS LATER IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
U70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES FOR COASTAL AREAS AND L80S FOR THE
INTERIOR. LOWS COOLER OVERNIGHT WITH L/M 60S AREAWIDE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...OCNL ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS THIS MORNING FROM THE ATLC
AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE THE ECFL COAST. GENERALLY
VFR CIGS FOR THE INTERIOR WITH MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS
MOVING ONSHORE FOR CSTL TERMINALS. LOCALLY BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH SHOWERS...ESPEC NEAR KMLB ALONG THE COAST WILL BRING BRIEF IFR
VSBYS WITH +RA. CONDS BCMG VFR ALL AREAS TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
PULLS OFF TO THE NORTH OFFSHORE FROM NE FL. GUSTY WINDS TO 20 KNOTS
INTERIOR AND 20-25 KNOTS N CSTL TERMINALS /KDAB-KMLB/ THIS AFTN IS
EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A
CIRCULATION OVER THE VERY SOUTHERN OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING. THIS AREA OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND LIFT NNE`WARD THRU TONIGHT. LIKELY SHOWERS
FORECAST WITH ISOLD STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE ON THE STRONG
SIDE OVER THE GULF STREAM. A FEW STRONGER LOW-TOPPED CELLS OFFSHORE
BETWEEN SEBASTIAN-JUPITER INLET WITH AN ISOLD WATERSPOUT NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL MARINE LEGS WITH FORECAST
WINDS RANGING FROM NNW-NE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY BACKING TO
NW TONIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH. WIND SPEEDS A BIT TRICKY...THOUGH
THE FORECAST CALLS FOR 20-25 KTS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL DISTORT WIND FIELD AT TIMES WITH HIGHER GUSTS/LOCALLY
HIGHER SEAS INVOF OF STRONGER ACTIVITY...BUT THERE WILL BE TIMES
WHERE SPEEDS ARE LESS THAN FORECAST. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD 6-9
FT OFFSHORE/GULF STREAM WITH 4-7 FT SEAS BUILDING ELSEWHERE THRU
TONIGHT.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH
TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH
TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR SEBASTIAN INLET
TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM.
&&
$$
SEDLOCK/CRISTALDI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1045 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
PERSISTENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHWARD THIS
MORNING...WITH 15Z/10AM SURFACE OBS SHOWING IT ALONG A MOLINE TO
KANKAKEE LINE. WINDS HAVE BECOME SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE ENTIRE KILX
CWA...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH. SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NOTED ON
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER KANSAS/OKLAHOMA WILL LIFT N/NE
TODAY...HOWEVER ANY CLOUDS/PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL REMAIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. FURTHER
EAST...MOSTLY SUNNY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. CURRENT FORECAST IS
RIGHT ON TRACK...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR MACOMB TO PARIS ACROSS CENTRAL IL
THIS MORNING AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY ARE RESULTING IN AREAS OF FOG...WITH OCCASIONAL DENSE
FOG OBSERVATIONS IN BLOOMINGTON...AND LASALLE AND PONTIAC TO THE
NORTH. 7Z HRRR MODEL IS DEPICTING WELL THE DENSE AREA AND HAVE
INCORPORATED PATCHY DENSE FOG IN GRIDS ACCORDING TO THIS. FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY AROUND 8 AM WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
FOR TODAY...A 500 MB RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED NW-SE ACROSS IL WILL SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD WHILE A SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EJECTS
NORTHEASTWARD JUST WEST OF ILLINOIS. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN SIDE OF ILLINOIS BUT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE CENTRAL IL FORECAST AREA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR CENTRAL IL INDICATE A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND
DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS WHICH SHOULD HELP TO PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH ENOUGH MOISTURE BELOW THE DRY SUBSIDENT LAYER
COULD BRING SCATTERED TO BROKEN SHALLOW CUMULUS. SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWARD WITH
WARM AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING HIGHS INTO THE MID OR UPPER 80S
ACROSS CENTRAL IL. SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHERLY 8-15 MPH
WITH GUSTS 12-20 MPH...THE STRONGER WINDS TOWARD THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE STATE.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
BRIEF DRY PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE
WARM TEMPS. STORM/WAVE OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL TRACK
NORTH/NORTHEAST BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOSTLY STAY TO THE WEST...BUT
SOME PRECIP CHANCES SNEAKING INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON THURSDAY,
WITH THE BEST CHANCES PUSHING INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND OVERNIGHT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BIGGER SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE DESERT
SW OVER THE NEXT 36 HRS OR SO AND WILL KEEP THE WESTERN US UNDER A
TROF, AMPLIFYING THE PATTERN AND SETTING UP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR
THE MIDWEST. MANY SHORTWAVES TRACKING AROUND THE TROF AND UP INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WORKWEEK. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS KEEP HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY THREAT IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS SLOWLY DRIVEN OUT OF THE REGION.
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE THE BEST
FOCUS AND THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY DIFFUSE WITH THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM WITH A PRETTY STUBBORN WARM
AIRMASS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SFC KEEPING WAA GOING EVEN WITH
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AT LEAST UNTIL THE TROF FINALLY
EXITS NE AND ALLOWS COOLER TEMPS BACK INTO THE REGION BY DAY7/DAY 8.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
EASTERN PORTION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL IL HAS BEGUN TO
MOVE NORTHWARD AND IS NOW JUST SOUTH OF KPIA-KMQB WITH FOG
DISSIPATING OR ABSENT FROM ALL CENTRAL IL TAF SITES EXCEPT KPIA.
KPIA WILL CONTINUE IFR VSBY UNTIL 13-14Z AS A RESULT BEFORE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL IL. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD WITH S
WINDS 6-12 KTS DEVELOPING. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED
FROM 18Z-00Z ALONG WITH SCT CLOUD COVER AROUND 5 KFT AGL.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...ONTON
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...ONTON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
655 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR MACOMB TO PARIS ACROSS CENTRAL IL
THIS MORNING AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY ARE RESULTING IN AREAS OF FOG...WITH OCCASIONAL DENSE
FOG OBSERVATIONS IN BLOOMINGTON...AND LASALLE AND PONTIAC TO THE
NORTH. 7Z HRRR MODEL IS DEPICTING WELL THE DENSE AREA AND HAVE
INCORPORATED PATCHY DENSE FOG IN GRIDS ACCORDING TO THIS. FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY AROUND 8 AM WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
FOR TODAY...A 500 MB RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED NW-SE ACROSS IL WILL SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD WHILE A SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EJECTS
NORTHEASTWARD JUST WEST OF ILLINOIS. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN SIDE OF ILLINOIS BUT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE CENTRAL IL FORECAST AREA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR CENTRAL IL INDICATE A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND
DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS WHICH SHOULD HELP TO PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH ENOUGH MOISTURE BELOW THE DRY SUBSIDENT LAYER
COULD BRING SCATTERED TO BROKEN SHALLOW CUMULUS. SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWARD WITH
WARM AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING HIGHS INTO THE MID OR UPPER 80S
ACROSS CENTRAL IL. SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHERLY 8-15 MPH
WITH GUSTS 12-20 MPH...THE STRONGER WINDS TOWARD THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE STATE.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
BRIEF DRY PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE
WARM TEMPS. STORM/WAVE OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL TRACK
NORTH/NORTHEAST BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOSTLY STAY TO THE WEST...BUT
SOME PRECIP CHANCES SNEAKING INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON THURSDAY,
WITH THE BEST CHANCES PUSHING INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND OVERNIGHT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BIGGER SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE DESERT
SW OVER THE NEXT 36 HRS OR SO AND WILL KEEP THE WESTERN US UNDER A
TROF, AMPLIFYING THE PATTERN AND SETTING UP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR
THE MIDWEST. MANY SHORTWAVES TRACKING AROUND THE TROF AND UP INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WORKWEEK. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS KEEP HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY THREAT IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS SLOWLY DRIVEN OUT OF THE REGION.
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE THE BEST
FOCUS AND THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY DIFFUSE WITH THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM WITH A PRETTY STUBBORN WARM
AIRMASS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SFC KEEPING WAA GOING EVEN WITH
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AT LEAST UNTIL THE TROF FINALLY
EXITS NE AND ALLOWS COOLER TEMPS BACK INTO THE REGION BY DAY7/DAY 8.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
EASTERN PORTION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL IL HAS BEGUN TO
MOVE NORTHWARD AND IS NOW JUST SOUTH OF KPIA-KMQB WITH FOG
DISSIPATING OR ABSENT FROM ALL CENTRAL IL TAF SITES EXCEPT KPIA.
KPIA WILL CONTINUE IFR VSBY UNTIL 13-14Z AS A RESULT BEFORE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL IL. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD WITH S
WINDS 6-12 KTS DEVELOPING. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED
FROM 18Z-00Z ALONG WITH SCT CLOUD COVER AROUND 5 KFT AGL.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ONTON
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...ONTON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1109 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
SKIES WILL BE SUNNY FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE REGION. SKIES
WILL BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY FOR THE NORTHERN PART WHILE HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE
MIDDLE 80S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. A WEAK FRONT IN THE AREA WILL
GIVE THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
PREVIOUS FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE ON
UPDATE. MOVED TIMING OF SHOWERS UP A FEW HOURS AS WK LOW LEVEL
ISENT LIFT AND MOIST AIRMASS HAS ALREADY RESULTED IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER NWRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
SGFNT VSBY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG HAVE ENDED EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE AREA AND SHOULD BE IMPROVING THERE
SHORTLY AS DIURNAL HEATING CONTS SO HAVE ALLOWED DENSE FOG
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
SHORT TERM ISSUES DEAL WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING FOLLOWED
BY PCPN CHANCES LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED WELL SOUTH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA AND HAS BECOME
QUITE DIFFUSE OVERNIGHT. GOES FOG/LOW CLOUD PRODUCT SHOWING
EXTENSIVE SHIELD OF STRATUS NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND COVERING ALL
BUT EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA. 07Z SFC OBSERVATIONS
CONFIRM WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY UNDER 1KFT AND VISIBILITIES AT OR
BELOW 3SM. HIRES MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SHARP LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND
A FEW AMDAR SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS. SHALLOW STRATUS DECK SEEMS TO BE
KEEPING VISIBILITIES IN THE 1-3SM RANGE WITH ONLY A SLOW DROP SO
FAR. THERE ARE BREAKS WITHIN THE STRATUS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE IF/WHERE THESE CLOUD FREE AREAS PERSIST.
WITH WEAK FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER MIXING WILL BE SLOW TODAY AND
WILL NEED TO RELY MORE ON DIURNAL HEATING TO AID AND EVENTUALLY
ERODE CLOUD DECK FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THIS MAY TAKE SOME EXTRA TIME
AND DELAY CLEARING UNTIL LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE FAR
NORTH AS RUC13 LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS DO NOT MIX UNTIL CLOSER TO 18Z.
WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE SLOWED CLEARING AND KEPT NORTHERN AREAS
MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY AS RAPID
WARMING EXPECTED ONCE SKIES CLEAR. SOUTHERN AREAS STILL EXPECTED TO
PUSH MID 80S WHILE NORTHERN AREAS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER
70S NOW WITH DELAYED CLEARING. 00Z MOS GUIDANCE STRUGGLING AS WELL
WITH LARGE DISPARITY BETWEEN HIGHER RESOLUTION MET GUIDANCE BEING
MUCH COOLER THAN MAV OVER NORTHERN AREAS WHILE VERY CLOSE IN THE
SOUTH.
NEXT ISSUE DEALS WITH LOW CHANCES FOR ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
RATHER STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH RETREATING
CLOUD DECK AND DIFFUSE FRONT MIXING NORTH. NAM 4KM DEVELOPS JUST A
FEW ISOLATED CELLS LATE AFTERNOON. LOWER RESOLUTION VERSION DEVELOPS
VERY LITTLE. MOST OTHER GUIDANCE PACKAGES REMAIN SPLIT. MODEST CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1K J/KG EXPECTED BUT SHEAR PROFILES ARE
UNIMPRESSIVE GIVEN WEAK FLOW THROUGH COLUMN. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
REMAIN WARRANTED FOR ANY POP UP DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY AFTER ABOUT 20Z
AND SIMILAR TO TUE NIGHT COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED TSRA LAST THROUGH
ABOUT 03Z FAR NORTH.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE
START OF THE PERIOD...WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
PESKY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE AREA AND FALLING
APART (IF NOT ALREADY GONE). UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH WASHINGTON STATE WILL DEEPEN AND CUT OFF
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EAST TO THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL RIPPLES WILL EDGE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE REGION STARTING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A SURFACE FRONT DRIFTING SLOWLY SE INTO THE AREA.
THESE...COMBINED WITH A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SEVERAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE THE MAIN UPPER LOW FINALLY EJECTS AND LIFTS NE AWAY
FROM THE REGION. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS APPEARS TO BE
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LEAD WAVE AND MONDAY WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW. IN
TERMS OF TEMPS THE REST OF THE PERIOD MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR
INTO THE AREA THE FRONT GETS BEFORE STALLING OUT. LIKELY WILL END
UP A TIGHT GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE INTO THE WEEKEND UNTIL THE MAIN
SYSTEM PASSES. RAN WITH SUPERBLEND OF MODELS BEING THE BEST
COMPROMISE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
DENSE FOG WHICH FORMED OVER NW OHIO HAS SPREAD WESTWARD AND
IMPACTING KFWA WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS. WIND FIELD REMAINS LIGHT
THIS MORNING AND EXPECT DENSE FOG TO PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS
BEFORE WEAK MIXING BEGINS AND STALLED FRONT OVER CENTRAL INDIANA
BEGINS TO MIX NORTH AND AIDS IN EROSION OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
THIS SHOULD OCCUR MID TO LATE MORNING. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW FOR
INCLUSION WITHIN TERMINAL. SKIES CLEAR THIS EVENING. COULD BE SOME
FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT DEPENDING ON LOCATION OF FRONT AND
HOW MUCH MIXING WE SEE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW KEPT LATER PORTION
OF TAFS VFR.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...LASHLEY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1008 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
A STALLED FRONT OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NORTH
TODAY. CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR A THUNDERSTORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY FAR NORTH AND
NORTHEAST INDIANA...LOWER MICHIGAN...AND FAR NORTHWEST OHIO. HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 70S NEAR THE TRI-STATE REGION TO
THE MIDDLE 80S OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA. SKIES WILL BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
PREVIOUS FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE ON
UPDATE. MOVED TIMING OF SHOWERS UP A FEW HOURS AS WK LOW LEVEL
ISENT LIFT AND MOIST AIRMASS HAS ALREADY RESULTED IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER NWRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
SGFNT VSBY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG HAVE ENDED EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE AREA AND SHOULD BE IMPROVING THERE
SHORTLY AS DIURNAL HEATING CONTS SO HAVE ALLOWED DENSE FOG
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
SHORT TERM ISSUES DEAL WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING FOLLOWED
BY PCPN CHANCES LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED WELL SOUTH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA AND HAS BECOME
QUITE DIFFUSE OVERNIGHT. GOES FOG/LOW CLOUD PRODUCT SHOWING
EXTENSIVE SHIELD OF STRATUS NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND COVERING ALL
BUT EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA. 07Z SFC OBSERVATIONS
CONFIRM WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY UNDER 1KFT AND VISIBILITIES AT OR
BELOW 3SM. HIRES MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SHARP LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND
A FEW AMDAR SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS. SHALLOW STRATUS DECK SEEMS TO BE
KEEPING VISIBILITIES IN THE 1-3SM RANGE WITH ONLY A SLOW DROP SO
FAR. THERE ARE BREAKS WITHIN THE STRATUS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE IF/WHERE THESE CLOUD FREE AREAS PERSIST.
WITH WEAK FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER MIXING WILL BE SLOW TODAY AND
WILL NEED TO RELY MORE ON DIURNAL HEATING TO AID AND EVENTUALLY
ERODE CLOUD DECK FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THIS MAY TAKE SOME EXTRA TIME
AND DELAY CLEARING UNTIL LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE FAR
NORTH AS RUC13 LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS DO NOT MIX UNTIL CLOSER TO 18Z.
WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE SLOWED CLEARING AND KEPT NORTHERN AREAS
MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY AS RAPID
WARMING EXPECTED ONCE SKIES CLEAR. SOUTHERN AREAS STILL EXPECTED TO
PUSH MID 80S WHILE NORTHERN AREAS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER
70S NOW WITH DELAYED CLEARING. 00Z MOS GUIDANCE STRUGGLING AS WELL
WITH LARGE DISPARITY BETWEEN HIGHER RESOLUTION MET GUIDANCE BEING
MUCH COOLER THAN MAV OVER NORTHERN AREAS WHILE VERY CLOSE IN THE
SOUTH.
NEXT ISSUE DEALS WITH LOW CHANCES FOR ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
RATHER STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH RETREATING
CLOUD DECK AND DIFFUSE FRONT MIXING NORTH. NAM 4KM DEVELOPS JUST A
FEW ISOLATED CELLS LATE AFTERNOON. LOWER RESOLUTION VERSION DEVELOPS
VERY LITTLE. MOST OTHER GUIDANCE PACKAGES REMAIN SPLIT. MODEST CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1K J/KG EXPECTED BUT SHEAR PROFILES ARE
UNIMPRESSIVE GIVEN WEAK FLOW THROUGH COLUMN. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
REMAIN WARRANTED FOR ANY POP UP DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY AFTER ABOUT 20Z
AND SIMILAR TO TUE NIGHT COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED TSRA LAST THROUGH
ABOUT 03Z FAR NORTH.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE
START OF THE PERIOD...WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
PESKY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE AREA AND FALLING
APART (IF NOT ALREADY GONE). UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH WASHINGTON STATE WILL DEEPEN AND CUT OFF
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EAST TO THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL RIPPLES WILL EDGE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE REGION STARTING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A SURFACE FRONT DRIFTING SLOWLY SE INTO THE AREA.
THESE...COMBINED WITH A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SEVERAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE THE MAIN UPPER LOW FINALLY EJECTS AND LIFTS NE AWAY
FROM THE REGION. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS APPEARS TO BE
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LEAD WAVE AND MONDAY WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW. IN
TERMS OF TEMPS THE REST OF THE PERIOD MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR
INTO THE AREA THE FRONT GETS BEFORE STALLING OUT. LIKELY WILL END
UP A TIGHT GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE INTO THE WEEKEND UNTIL THE MAIN
SYSTEM PASSES. RAN WITH SUPERBLEND OF MODELS BEING THE BEST
COMPROMISE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
DENSE FOG WHICH FORMED OVER NW OHIO HAS SPREAD WESTWARD AND
IMPACTING KFWA WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS. WIND FIELD REMAINS LIGHT
THIS MORNING AND EXPECT DENSE FOG TO PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS
BEFORE WEAK MIXING BEGINS AND STALLED FRONT OVER CENTRAL INDIANA
BEGINS TO MIX NORTH AND AIDS IN EROSION OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
THIS SHOULD OCCUR MID TO LATE MORNING. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW FOR
INCLUSION WITHIN TERMINAL. SKIES CLEAR THIS EVENING. COULD BE SOME
FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT DEPENDING ON LOCATION OF FRONT AND
HOW MUCH MIXING WE SEE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW KEPT LATER PORTION
OF TAFS VFR.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...LASHLEY
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
656 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
A STALLED FRONT OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NORTH
TODAY. CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR A THUNDERSTORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY FAR NORTH AND
NORTHEAST INDIANA...LOWER MICHIGAN...AND FAR NORTHWEST OHIO. HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 70S NEAR THE TRI-STATE REGION TO
THE MIDDLE 80S OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA. SKIES WILL BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
SHORT TERM ISSUES DEAL WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING FOLLOWED
BY PCPN CHANCES LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED WELL SOUTH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA AND HAS BECOME
QUITE DIFFUSE OVERNIGHT. GOES FOG/LOW CLOUD PRODUCT SHOWING
EXTENSIVE SHIELD OF STRATUS NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND COVERING ALL
BUT EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA. 07Z SFC OBSERVATIONS
CONFIRM WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY UNDER 1KFT AND VISIBILITIES AT OR
BELOW 3SM. HIRES MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SHARP LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND
A FEW AMDAR SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS. SHALLOW STRATUS DECK SEEMS TO BE
KEEPING VISIBILITIES IN THE 1-3SM RANGE WITH ONLY A SLOW DROP SO
FAR. THERE ARE BREAKS WITHIN THE STRATUS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE IF/WHERE THESE CLOUD FREE AREAS PERSIST.
WITH WEAK FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER MIXING WILL BE SLOW TODAY AND
WILL NEED TO RELY MORE ON DIURNAL HEATING TO AID AND EVENTUALLY
ERODE CLOUD DECK FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THIS MAY TAKE SOME EXTRA TIME
AND DELAY CLEARING UNTIL LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE FAR
NORTH AS RUC13 LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS DO NOT MIX UNTIL CLOSER TO 18Z.
WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE SLOWED CLEARING AND KEPT NORTHERN AREAS
MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY AS RAPID
WARMING EXPECTED ONCE SKIES CLEAR. SOUTHERN AREAS STILL EXPECTED TO
PUSH MID 80S WHILE NORTHERN AREAS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER
70S NOW WITH DELAYED CLEARING. 00Z MOS GUIDANCE STRUGGLING AS WELL
WITH LARGE DISPARITY BETWEEN HIGHER RESOLUTION MET GUIDANCE BEING
MUCH COOLER THAN MAV OVER NORTHERN AREAS WHILE VERY CLOSE IN THE
SOUTH.
NEXT ISSUE DEALS WITH LOW CHANCES FOR ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
RATHER STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH RETREATING
CLOUD DECK AND DIFFUSE FRONT MIXING NORTH. NAM 4KM DEVELOPS JUST A
FEW ISOLATED CELLS LATE AFTERNOON. LOWER RESOLUTION VERSION DEVELOPS
VERY LITTLE. MOST OTHER GUIDANCE PACKAGES REMAIN SPLIT. MODEST CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1K J/KG EXPECTED BUT SHEAR PROFILES ARE
UNIMPRESSIVE GIVEN WEAK FLOW THROUGH COLUMN. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
REMAIN WARRANTED FOR ANY POP UP DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY AFTER ABOUT 20Z
AND SIMILAR TO TUE NIGHT COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED TSRA LAST THROUGH
ABOUT 03Z FAR NORTH.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE
START OF THE PERIOD...WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
PESKY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE AREA AND FALLING
APART (IF NOT ALREADY GONE). UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH WASHINGTON STATE WILL DEEPEN AND CUT OFF
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EAST TO THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL RIPPLES WILL EDGE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE REGION STARTING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A SURFACE FRONT DRIFTING SLOWLY SE INTO THE AREA.
THESE...COMBINED WITH A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SEVERAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE THE MAIN UPPER LOW FINALLY EJECTS AND LIFTS NE AWAY
FROM THE REGION. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS APPEARS TO BE
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LEAD WAVE AND MONDAY WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW. IN
TERMS OF TEMPS THE REST OF THE PERIOD MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR
INTO THE AREA THE FRONT GETS BEFORE STALLING OUT. LIKELY WILL END
UP A TIGHT GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE INTO THE WEEKEND UNTIL THE MAIN
SYSTEM PASSES. RAN WITH SUPERBLEND OF MODELS BEING THE BEST
COMPROMISE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
DENSE FOG WHICH FORMED OVER NW OHIO HAS SPREAD WESTWARD AND
IMPACTING KFWA WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS. WIND FIELD REMAINS LIGHT
THIS MORNING AND EXPECT DENSE FOG TO PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS
BEFORE WEAK MIXING BEGINS AND STALLED FRONT OVER CENTRAL INDIANA
BEGINS TO MIX NORTH AND AIDS IN EROSION OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
THIS SHOULD OCCUR MID TO LATE MORNING. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW FOR
INCLUSION WITHIN TERMINAL. SKIES CLEAR THIS EVENING. COULD BE SOME
FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT DEPENDING ON LOCATION OF FRONT AND
HOW MUCH MIXING WE SEE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW KEPT LATER PORTION
OF TAFS VFR.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ006>009-
017-018-025>027-032>034.
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ079>081.
OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-002-
004-005-015-016-024-025.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...LASHLEY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
628 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST IS THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING: WHERE EXACTLY THE THREATS ARE MOST
SIGNIFICANT, WHAT THOSE THREATS WILL BE, AND JUST HOW THIS WILL ALL
UNFOLD.
OVERNIGHT WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW THE CENTER OF A
RATHER AMORPHOUS UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH AT LEAST A
COUPLE SMALLER EMBEDDED MESOSCALE VORTICES ROTATING ABOUT A COMMON
LARGER CENTER. THE SOUTHERNMOST OF THESE APPEARED TO BE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AS OF 0830 UTC AND CONTINUED TO LIFT SLOWLY
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. MID LEVEL DRYING WAS
OCCURRING TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THIS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
PRECIPITATION HAD PRETTY MUCH CLEARED THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION,
HAVING MOVED OFF INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. A SURFACE
LOW WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO AS A
DRYLINE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE SOUTHWESTERLY
MOMENTUM IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AND
TOWARD MIDDAY...WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE ADVANCEMENT OF WARM AIR
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MOIST AXIS. THE MOIST AXIS WILL RESIDE
ROUGHLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE AS A THERMAL RIDGE NOSES
TOWARD THE MOIST AXIS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...MOST PRONOUNCED NORTH
OF DODGE CITY UP TOWARD WAKEENEY. THIS WILL BE THE REGION MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO VIGOROUS SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AFTER
ABOUT 2000 UTC (3PM CDT). FOLLOWING THE NSSL VERSION OF THE WRF-
ARW...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BLOSSOM ALONG OR VERY NEAR THE HIGHWAY 283
CORRIDOR MAINLY NORTH OF DODGE CITY UP TO WAKEENEY...AND QUICKLY
BECOME SEVERE AS ONE OR TWO STORMS EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE
ADEQUATE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 35-40 KNOTS. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR LOOKS
REALLY GOOD WITH NEARLY 90 DEGREES OF TURNING THROUGH THE LAYER.
SURFACE-BASED CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG WILL ADVANCE NORTHWARD BY
LATE AFTERNOON, AND IN COMBINATION WITH ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
FOR ROTATING CONVECTION, VERY LARGE HAIL LOOKS LIKE A VERY GOOD BET
WITH UNINTERRUPTED SUPERCELLS, WITH MAXIMUM HAIL SIZE AROUND TENNIS
BALLS POSSIBLE.
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE CONVECTION WILL
EVOLVE TOWARD SUNSET. THERE IS GREAT CONCERN THAT IF A SUPERCELL CAN
THRIVE THROUGH SUNSET...OR IF A NEW SUPERCELL DEVELOPS FARTHER SOUTH
TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF UNINTERRUPTED INFLOW...THAT TORNADOES WILL
OCCUR. THE 0-1KM AGL NEAR SURFACE SHEAR WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
IN THE 00-03Z TIME FRAME THIS EVENING. STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IN
THIS LAYER IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2 ALONG WITH SBCAPE OF 2500 J/KG IS
A DANGEROUS COMBINATION, AND MOST CERTAINLY SUPPORTS DANGEROUS
TORNADOES GIVEN AN ESTABLISHED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM. THIS IS A
THREAT WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY, AND HOPEFULLY HOURLY
3KM HRRR MODEL TRENDS WILL HELP THE DAY SHIFT IN ASSESSING THIS
THREAT FURTHER. BY MID TO LATE EVENING, THIS THREAT WILL SHIFT EAST
TOWARD THE WFO ICT AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (EAST OF ELLIS, RUSH,
STAFFORD, PRATT, BARBER COUNTIES) AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE DOWN INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THEN EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND CENTRAL ROCKIES SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL
SPIN AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND
WESTERN KANSAS WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS. A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIODS THEN RETROGRADE
BACK WEST IN THE EVENING. THE AFOREMENTIONED DRYLINE AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE THE MAIN FOCAL POINT WHERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
FROM IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MODERATELY
UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIODS WITH AMPLE SHEAR IN THE LOW
TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ERGO, ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.
A FEW TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE CWA SATURDAY
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. ONCE AGAIN, A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND ISOLATED TORNADOES BEING THE
MAIN CONCERN. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG
WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS. THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH A DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS AT THE SURFACE.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS THURSDAY ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 80
DEGREES THEN RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 70 DEGREES SATURDAY WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER TO UPPER 50S
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY ARE
FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
WHERE THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TO
UPPER 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE COLD FRONT ISN`T
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM AROUND 40 DEGREES ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER
TO UPPER 40S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS MONDAY LOOK TO
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S THEN REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 70S TUESDAY.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH A FEW LOW CLOUDS
THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10
KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 81 59 81 58 / 10 10 50 60
GCK 83 53 80 55 / 10 10 40 40
EHA 82 51 80 52 / 10 10 30 30
LBL 82 54 82 57 / 10 10 40 50
HYS 75 58 78 54 / 50 50 40 70
P28 77 63 81 61 / 50 40 60 70
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1155 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD BEFORE DISSIPATING TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST FRIDAY WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THIS WEEKEND...SENDING ITS
MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...
WEAK-TO-NON-EXISTANT COLD FRONT CURRENTLY POSITIONED NORTH OF THE
MASON-DIXON WILL NUDGE SOUTH TODAY...EVENTUALLY STALLING OVER THE
NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE THE BASIS FOR
PCPN DVLPMNT FM MID AFTN THRU ERLY EVE.
12Z IAD SNDG SHOWS ANOTHER DAY W/ A LGT UPR LVL WIND FIELD. THIS
WL INHIBIT TSTM DVLPMNT. HRRR SHOWS A WEAK LN OF RW/TRW FORMING
ALONG THE BLU RDG ARND 20Z...THEN SLOWLY TRACKING SE.
SHEN VLLY SHOULD WARM INTO THE 80S...WITH AREAS TO THE NORTH
CLOSER TO THE MASON-DIXON HOVERING IN THE MID-UPPER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG S TONIGHT...DISSIPATING BY THURS
MORNING. LINGERING PCPN THIS EVENING WILL TAPER OFF AFTR SUNSET
WITH LOSS OF HTG. DRY WX SETTING UP BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE
NIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND BUILDS SOUTH UNDER THE
BUILDING RIDGE.
SFC HIGH KEEPS MOST OF THE AREA DRY THURS THRU THURS NIGHT AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST...STRADDLING THE CWA. DID MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHC POPS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH MINIMAL INSTABILITY NOTED
COMBINING WITH TERRAIN INFLUENCES OFF THE ELY FLOW. ANY PCPN
TAPERS OFF YET AGAIN FOR THURS NIGHT. ELY FLOW WILL AID IN KEEPING
TEMPS COOLER DURING THE DAY THURS...WITH MOST AREAS IN THE 70S AND
ONLY POCKETS REACHING 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE`S DECENT SYNOP SCALE AGREEMENT THAT LOPRES WL BE SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FRI WHILE RDGG WL RESIDE ACRS THE CWFA AND
A CDFNT WL BE ACRS THE WRN GRTLKS. CHALLENGE INVOLVES DETERMINING
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT TO THE LOW. DONT BELIEVE IT WL REACH US DIRECTLY.
EVEN IF IT DECAYS TO OUR S UNDER THE MID-LVL RDG...ITS MSTR WL BE
ADVECTED NWD. WHILE THAT WONT AFFECT FRI FCST...IT DOES BECOME A
PLAYER FOR THE WKND. HV INCRSG DEWPTS...NEAR 60F FRI/LWR-MID 60S
SAT- SUN...AND HV INTRO CHC POPS FOR SAT/EXPANDED CVRG SUN.
FURTHER... THERE SHUD BE SUFFICIENT RH FOR ADDED CLDS...AND HV
SOMETHING THAT/LL BE BORDERLINE PTSUN IN THE DATABASE. MAXT SHUDNT
BE FAR FM PERSISTENCE...LWR 80S. BUT THE ANOMOLOUSLY HIGH DEWPTS
SUGGST MIN-T WL BE ON THE MUGGY SIDE. USED THESE DEWPTS FOR A
STARTING POINT FOR MIN-T-- MID 60S FOR SUN/MON ELY MRNGS.
CARRIED THE TROPICAL MSTR FEED INTO MON. SAME CONSIDERATIONS BUT
POPS/TEMPS/DEWPTS A PINCH HIER AS AMS FM THE SERN CONUS ADVECTS ACRS
MID ATLC. AM KEEPING THUNDER IN FCST. INSTBY IMPROVES A LTL VS WKND
FCST. AT THIS POINT NOT SOLD ON ANY STRONG/SVR STORMS THO.
CDFNT PARKED TO OUR W/NW AT THE BGBG OF THE XTNDD FCST WL FINALLY HV
ROOM TO SWEEP EAST BY TUE. IF THERE WERE ANY STRONG STORMS...THIS
WUD LKLY BE THE DAY. HWVR JURY STILL OUT AS TO MAGNITUDE TO THREAT.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR THRU 00Z...WITH PSBL STRATUS FORMING TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT
STALLING OVER THE REGION.
SCT SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS PSBL AFTR 18Z. CONFIDENCE OF TIMING/
LOCATION TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AS -SHRA/TSRA ATTM...SO WILL MAINTAIN
VCSH. ANOTHER DAY OF LIGHT WINDS...MAINLY LESS THAN 8 KTS. NE FLOW
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME ELY FOR THE AFTN THRU TONIGHT. ANY
SHOWER/TSTM COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTN.
OUTLOOK...
VFR FRI. ISOL-SCT SHRA/TSRA PSBL DAILY SAT-SUN...MAINLY AFTN/EVE.
MAY BE BRIEF FLGT RESTRICTIONS IF A TERMINAL IS IMPACTED. THATS A
LOW CONFIDENCE FCST AT THIS VANTAGE POINT. FURTHER...CUD HV
PREDAWN FOG ASSUMING WET GROUND BEFORE NIGHTFALL FLWD BY PRTL
CLRG. THAT FCST HIGHLY CONDITIONAL.
&&
.MARINE...
GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS THRU THURS
NIGHT WITH WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS
THIS AFTN COULD RESULT IN BRIEF PERIODS OF GUSTY CONDITIONS...
MAINLY LATE AFTN AND EVENING TIME FRAME.
WEAK PRESSURE PTTN THRU THE WKND. NO HAZARDS XPCTD ATTM. LOPRES S OF
WATERS MAY EJECT NEWD...PROVIDING BRIEF/LCL SHRA/TSRA BCMG MORE NMRS
BY END OF PD.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE WARMEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015 SO FAR HAS MOVED OVER THE REGION
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK.
DCA REACHED A HIGH OF 86 DEGREES ON TUESDAY MAY 5TH...THE WARMEST
DAY SINCE SEPTEMBER 21ST 2014 WHEN THE TEMPERATURE REACHED 86
DEGREES.
BWI REACHED A HIGH OF 85 DEGREES ON TUESDAY MAY 5TH...THE WARMEST
DAY SINCE SEPTEMBER 11TH 2014 WHEN THE TEMPERATURE REACHED 89
DEGREES.
IAD REACHED A HIGH OF 85 DEGREES ON TUESDAY MAY 5TH...THE WARMEST
DAY SINCE SEPTEMBER 11TH 2014 WHEN THE TEMPERATURE REACHED 86
DEGREES.
CHO REACHED A HIGH OF 85 DEGREES ON TUESDAY MAY 5TH...THE WARMEST
DAY SINCE SEPTEMBER 21ST 2014 WHEN THE TEMPERATURE REACHED 87
DEGREES.
DMH REACHED A HIGH OF 86 DEGREES ON MONDAY MAY 4TH...THE WARMEST DAY
SINCE SEPTEMBER 11TH 2014 WHEN THE TEMPERATURE REACHED 90 DEGREES.
HGR REACHED A HIGH OF 85 DEGREES ON MONDAY MAY 4TH...THE WARMEST DAY
SINCE SEPTEMBER 6TH 2014 WHEN THE TEMPERATURE REACHED 90 DEGREES.
MRB REACHED A HIGH OF 85 DEGREES ON MONDAY MAY 4TH...THE WARMEST DAY
SINCE SEPTEMBER 21ST 2014 WHEN THE TEMPERATURE REACHED 86 DEGREES.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...ADS/HTS/DFH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1005 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
.UPDATE...
RAISED TEMPS A BIT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND ADJUSTED POPS/WEATHER A
BIT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS OUR
AREA...WITH A FEW CU BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN THE FAR SOUTH AS SHALLOW
MOISTURE COMES UP FROM THE COAST. 12Z JAN/LIX SOUNDINGS NOT VERY
CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION...SHOWING SUBSTANTIAL CAP AND PRECIPTABLE
WATER VALUES BELOW AN INCH. MODELS AND BLENDED PW LOOP DO NOT SHOW
APPRECIABLE CHANGE TO THIS SCENARIO TODAY. PRESENCE OF SLIGHTLY
DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN SOUTH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
WEAK SHEAR AXIS SHOULD RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHRA PER LATEST
HRRR AND HIGH RES MODELS. BUT GIVEN PRESENCE OF SIGNIFICANT
INHIBITION TO DEEPER CONVECTION AND SIGNAL OF RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE
LOOKING CONVECTION IN HIGH RES MODELS WILL CHANGE WX TYPE FROM TSRA
TO SHRA AND LOWERED POPS A LITTLE. LATEST HRRR SHOWS TEMPS WARMING A
COUPLE OF DEGS MORE THAN CURRENT FORECAST AND BASED ON TRENDS AND
MAXES YESTERDAY HAVE WENT WITH THIS IDEA. /08/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING
SHOWING A RATHER WEAK CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND MOVING SLOWLY NORTH. MEANWHILE...LARGE CYCLONIC
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPIN SLOWLY NE OUT OF NM INTO KS. MODELS CONFIRM
THIS PATTERN WITH ALSO A MID LEVEL RIGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO.
AT THE SURFACE...RELATIVELY DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA
AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S IN PERSISTENT LIGHT EAST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. REPOSITIONING OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TODAY
MORE TO THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO OUR WINDS
AND FINALLY A DOSE OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. MODELS...INCLUDING
HRRR AND OTHER HIRES MODELS...ARE INDICATING THAT A WEAK SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
THOUGH THE COLUMN REMAINS WARM...BETTER MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ALONG
THE BOUNDARY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR PARCELS TO SCRAPE OUT AT MOST
1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE...AS ADVERTISED BY THE NAM...TO ALLOW FOR
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION. IT PROBABLY WONT AMOUNT TO MUCH AS LAPSE
RATES REMAIN FEEBLE. WHAT DOES DEVELOP WILL WIND DOWN QUICKLY THIS
EVENING.
MOVING INTO THE OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME...SREF DATA IS INDICATING THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN THE AREA OF BEST MOISTURE
RETURN...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF...AND AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT. BEEFED UP SKY GRIDS IN THESE AREAS AND ADDED FOG IN WX GRIDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE PROMINENT OVER THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. DESPITE THE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BELIEVE THE LACK
OF A LOW LEVEL FOCUS AND INCREASED WARMING ALOFT WILL BE TOO
DETRIMENTAL TO ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. FAR SW AREAS OF THE CWA
WOULD BE THE ONLY EXCEPTION. WHILE IT IS HARD TO BELIEVE CONVECTION
WOULD FORM IN THAT AREA UNDER THESE CONDITIONS...STORMS THAT
ORIGINATE FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH COULD MOVE IN OR BRUSH ACROSS THAT
AREA. WILL NOT MENTION IN GRIDS AT THE MOMENT...NOT YET CONVINCED OF
THIS SCENARIO./26/
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGING ALOFT
AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN THE PREDOMINATE
FEATURES OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
STRAY SHOWER OR STORM DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES CURRENTLY LOOK TO COME LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING OUT OF
THE NATION`S MID-SECTION...FORCES A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO AND THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL LESSEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT DEPARTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. /19/
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD. SOME VCTS WILL BE SEEN AROUND HBG BETWEEN 06/18Z AND 07/02Z.
AFTER 07/06Z...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH OVER HBG
AND POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS HKS/JAN/MEI./26/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 87 63 85 64 / 5 8 9 5
MERIDIAN 87 60 85 62 / 5 4 9 4
VICKSBURG 87 64 86 66 / 6 7 9 6
HATTIESBURG 86 62 87 63 / 25 14 9 5
NATCHEZ 85 65 84 66 / 20 17 12 8
GREENVILLE 88 65 86 66 / 6 5 9 7
GREENWOOD 86 64 84 65 / 5 3 9 5
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AEG/26/19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
654 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH TODAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL MOVE ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE FRONT BRINGING SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE ACROSS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON
THURSDAY BRINGING WARM AND DRY WEATHER WITH IT. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES REGION TO THE UPPER
MOHAWK VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS EARLY THIS
MORNING...ONE MOVING ACRS SC NY AND NE PA AND ANOTHER ONE ACRS NE
OH TO NW PA. THE FIRST BATCH OF PRECIP OVER SC NY/NE PA WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT IN ADVANCE OF A SHRT WAVE THAT WAS
MOVING ACRS THE ERN LAKES INTO NY STATE. THIS FEATURE WAS
SUPPORTING A SWRLY LOW-LEVEL WIND MAX WHICH WAS RISING
ISENTROPICALLY ACRS SC NY/NE PA AND LEADING TO A MORE STRATIFORM
RAIN. THIS WAVE WILL CONT EAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND TAKE THIS
PRECIPITATION EAST OF SC NY SO HAVE POPS FOR SHRA WINDING DOWN BY
ARND 12Z OR SO IN SC NY. RADAR SHOWS THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP IN
NW OH AND NW PA HEADING JUST S OF E TWD NE PA AND SULLIVAN CO NY
PRIMARILY. BELIEVE THE RAP HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THE NEXT PRECIP SHIELD BASED ON CURRENT RADAR DATA WHEN LOOKING AT
THE OTHER HI RES MODEL REFLECTIVITIES. THE PRECIP WAS MORE
CONVECTIVE IN NATURE IN NE OH/NW PA AS IT WAS BEING SUPPORTED BY
ANTHR LOW- LEVEL WIND MAX TIED TO A SMALL SHRT WAVE AT MID- LEVELS
MAINLY. THERE WAS MORE LL THETA-E ADVTN IN THIS AREA THAT WAS
DESTABLIZING THE AMS ABV A SFC FRNT WHICH WAS ACRS SERN OH TO SW
PA. SO THE LL WIND MAX WAS ADVECTING MOISTURE ABV THE SFC FRNT
LEADING TO ELEVATED CONVECTIVE SHRA AND ISLD TSRA. THIS WIND MAX
MOVES E THIS MORNING AND THE MOISTURE ADVTN WEAKENS SOME BUT THERE
WILL BE INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT THRU 12Z OVER NE PA. SO WE
THINK THE PRECIP WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM-ISH IN NATURE AS IT
WORKS INTO NE PA AND SERN NY BTWN 12Z AND 15Z. BY 15Z...THERE WILL
BE ENUF MIXING IN THE BNDRY LAYER SOUTH OF THE PRECIP TO DISRUPT
THIS LL WIND MAX WHICH WILL IN EFFECT CUT OFF THE ISENTROPIC LIFT.
THUS WE EXPECT THIS PRECIP WILL WEAKEN AND FALL APART BY 15-18Z
THE LATEST.
THEN FOR THE AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE ENUF DRY AIR IN THE LL/S TO
PRECLUDE MUCH CUMULUS FORMATION FROM NC NY TO THE CATSKILLS.
FARTHER W...THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE LL MOISTURE SO I EXPECT
SCT-BKN CU AT THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER CLOUDS OVERHEAD. I DON/T
EXPECT ANY PRECIP AFTER 18Z OR SO IN NE PA/C NY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RDG AXIS WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN LAKES WITH A SFC RDG OVHD. SKIES WILL BE PC TO MO
CLR. ON THURSDAY 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO +12C WHICH TRANSLATES WITH
MIXING TO MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
FOR THURSDAY NGT...AGAIN FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED. FOR
FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATES SCT SHRA AND TSRA FORMING WITH CAPES
BTWN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG CAPES. THE NAM ALSO HAS CAPES ABV 1000
J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. BUT THE FORCING WILL BE MINIMAL AS THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE UPPER RDG AXIS. I COULD SEE AN ISLD SHRA
OR TSRA FORMING WITH LOCALLY MESOSCALE CRCLNS BUT THESE WILL BE
ISLD SO HAVE SLGHT CHC POPS...MAINLY OUR WRN CWA WHERE DEWPOINTS
AND CAPES WILL BE A BIT HIGHER.
FRIDAY NGT LOOKS FAIR AND DRY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
425 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO EXTENDED FORECAST JUST
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. AREA WILL REMAIN
UNDER A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES AND JUST LOW CHC POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS HUMIDITIES
INCREASE. NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. DRY AND
COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
2 PM UPDATE...
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKED GOOD. WARM AND DRY MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND THEN BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
VERY WARM WITH HUMIDITY THIS WEEKEND UNDER A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE JUST OF THE CWA IN SE CANADA
WHICH STAYS THERE ALL OF THE LONG TERM. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS
WHERE THIS SETS UP AND STAYS. MODELS DIFFER ON THIS. WPC LEANS ON
EURO WHICH KEEPS THE BOUNDARY IN CANADA WHILE THE GFS DROPS IT
INTO PA SUN AND MON. HAVE FOLLOWED WPC AND HAVE CHC POPS FAR NORTH
SAT NGT THEN EVERYONE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING. AT KRME/KSYR, JUST VFR WITH SCT MID/HIGH CLOUDS THEN SKC
OVERNIGHT. A MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH NRN PA IS PRODUCING
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NE PA. AT KITH/KELM/KBGM, CIGS AROUND 5K FT
WILL LIFT AND SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY SKC
OVERNIGHT. AT KELM, IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 09Z-12Z.
AT KAVP, A ROUND OF MVFR/VFR SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL
THROUGH MID MORNING. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND SCATTERED OUT
LATE TODAY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...
THU-SUN...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1027 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
TWEEKED POPS A BIT TO SHOW A BIT HIGHER POPS WITH CURRENT SHOWER
BAND MOVING THRU THE MID RRV INTO CNTRL ND. INSTABILITY IS VERY
LOW...EXCEPT IN FAR NCNTRL MN WHERE LIGHTNING STRIKES OCCURRING
WITH SOME CONVECTION ALONG LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE. FOR THE MOST
PART TODAY...EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES WITH OCNL SHOWERS. THUNDER
CHANCES PER RAP MODEL SEEM VERY LOW. HOWEVER RAP MODEL TEMPS AND A
FEW OTHER MODELS SHOW A WARM TEMP AREA FROM THE TWIN CITIES
NORTHWEST TOWARD WADENA THEN TOWARD FARGO THIS AFTN WITH HIGH
TEMPS 75-80. THIS SEEMS TOO WARM. DID LOWER TEMPS A TAD AS UNLESS
THERE IS SOME SUN CHANCE OF GETTING OUT OF THE 60S IS RATHER LOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
TIMING AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL BE
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE PERIOD.
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS STILL DOWN OVER COLORADO AND WESTERN
KANSAS...BUT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY
MOVED INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH SOME 850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION. THIS WAA SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. THE RAP HAS DONE A DECENT JOB OF CAPTURING THE
LEADING BAND...AND IT HAS A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE
WAA BAND WHICH SEEMS TO FIT RADAR OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AT THE CURRENT
TIME. THINK THAT THE REALLY WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NEB/SD AND WE GET MORE WIDESPREAD UPPER
FORCING. CONTINUED THE TREND OF HOLDING OFF ON THE CATEGORICAL
POPS UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF ELEVATED CAPE
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OBSERVED...SO WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION FOR THIS MORNING AND THEN MATCH THUNDER
TO SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS WE GET SOME SFC BASED CAPE MOVING
INTO THE REGION. CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING A
HUGE AMOUNT TODAY...BUT GIVEN THAT WE ARE STILL IN THE 50S AND
EVEN 60S THE WARM START WILL HELP US REACH THE 70S AGAIN.
TONIGHT...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT INTO THE CWA...WEAKENING
AS IT MOVES THROUGH. EVEN WITH THE WEAKENING UPPER SYSTEM THERE
SHOULD STILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND
CONTINUED WITH HIGH POPS THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CANADA BY THURSDAY AND PHASE
WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE. THAT SHOULD HELP PUSH A COLD
FRONT INTO THE CWA FOR THURSDAY...AND THERE SHOULD BE CONTINUED
PRECIP WITH THE FRONT. THE NAM BRINGS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE BEHIND
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WHICH SETS OFF A LOT OF QPF ALONG THE
FRONT...BUT IS THE ODD MODEL OUT. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGH POPS
TRANSITIONING OVER TO THE EASTERN CWA AS PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY DROP IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CWA AS THE FRONT COMES DOWN.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS BRING THROUGH
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SO CONTINUED TO LINGER SHOWERS AT
LEAST OVER THE EASTERN CWA. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER AS THERE
SEEMS TO BE GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850MB TEMPS BELOW ZERO COMING
DOWN...ALTHOUGH FORTUNATELY AFTER THE PRECIP ENDS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. MOST OF FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY BUT COOL AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE USA. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER THAN THE
PAST WEEK AND HIGHS SHOULD ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 50S AND COULD DROP
BELOW FREEZING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SPLIT FLOW WAS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH
NORTHERN STREAM OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. LONG WAVE TROUGH/RIDGE OVER THE GULF
OF AK/WESTERN CANADA WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE WEST COAST/CENTRAL
PLAINS RESPECTIVELY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON MON, BUT SURFACE FEATURES WERE FARTHER NORTH AND SLOWER
ON THE ECMWF. WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM, THE PATTERN BECAME 180
DEGREES OUT OF PHASE FOR MON AND TUE. THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING
FASTER WHILE THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE
RUNS. WILL BLEND THE ECMWF AND GFS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
MVFR AND EVEN SOME IFR CIGS HAVE ENTERED THE CWA AS MOISTURE FLOWS
UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE APPROACHING KGFK AND KDVL...BUT COVERAGE IS HIT OR MISS SO
WILL JUST INCLUDE VCSH FOR NOW. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL MOVE IN
THIS AFTERNOON...SO WHEN PREVAILING LIGHT RAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. MODELS PERSIST IN LIFTING CIGS A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON SO KEPT PREVIOUS SHIFTS IDEA OF 3500 FT CLOUDS. THINK
THAT RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SPOTTY TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD...SO TRANSITIONED BACK TO VCSH. CIGS SHOULD BE BACK DOWN TO
MVFR AS WE MOVE TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM
THE SOUTHEAST WITH SOME GUSTS ABOVE 20 KTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD GO DOWN TONIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH
APPROACHES.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
942 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE HEAVIEST RAIN BAND STRETCHESFROM
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA (BOWMAN AND HETTINGER)...NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH BISMARCK AND JAMESTOWN. THIS BAND OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. LATEST
HIGH-RES MODELS INDICATE THIS BAND OF RAIN WILL PARK OVER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY...BRINGING LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN TO AREAS INCLUDING CROSBY...WILLISTON...WATFORD
CITY...NEW TOWN...KILLDEER AND DICKINSON. FURTHER TO THE
EAST...ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THE HIGH-RES MODELS
INDICATE AFTERNOON HEATING WILL PRODUCE SOME INSTABILITY...LEADING
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES FOR
LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE
PUSHING INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
GENERATING PRECIPITATION UP ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER AND MOVING
NORTH WITH TIME. CURRENT FORECAST WITH LIKELY POPS TRANSITIONING
TO CATEGORICAL REMAINS ON TRACK...NO UPDATES TO CURRENT FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAINS ON INCOMING PRECIPITATION AND THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FIRST WAVE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVED INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
SHORTLY AROUND 07 UTC. THE HRRR DID A DECENT JOB OF TIMING THIS
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND HAS IT DIMINISHING AS IT
PROGRESSES NORTH. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH
THE LINE AND HAVE KEPT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT LINTON SHOWED HEAVY
RAIN WHILE A SHOWER WENT OVER AND REPORTED 0.20 INCHES. AT FIRST
GLANCE IT APPEARS THIS SYSTEM MAY WELL BRING THE MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL FORECASTED.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO WESTERN ND AROUND 18 UTC
WEDNESDAY AND INTO CENTRAL ND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
COINCIDE WITH 2-3 MORE EMBEDDED IMPULSES LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS BEFORE THE MAIN WAVE MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL SHOULD BE EXPERIENCED IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE...WITH STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS STILL DEPICTED FROM 0.5-1.5 INCHES. WITH BOTH THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF GENERATING 900-1200 J/KG OF MUCAPE OVER CENTRAL AND EAST
ALONG TO EAST OF THE FROPA...LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL (GREATER
THAN AN INCH) WITH CONVECTION WILL BE VERY POSSIBLE CONSIDERING
PWATS AROUND 1.25".
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
EXITING SYSTEM THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LEAVE BEHIND BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK FOR MAINLY SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY WANE THURSDAY/THURSDAY EVENING FROM
WEST TO EAST AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES THURSDAY
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND +1C FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 30S. AREAS OF FROST STILL APPEAR LIKELY DURING THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL
REACH INTO THE LOWER 60S TUESDAY. DRY BUT COOL FOR FRIDAY...THEN
THE NEXT CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL EJECT OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY. THE LATEST GFS KEEPS
THE PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND JUST ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF
ALSO FOLLOWS THIS IDEA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THEN PUSHES
THE PRECIPITATION BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THE SUPERBLEND ADVERTISES A ECMWF SOLUTION DURING
THIS PERIOD. IF THIS DOES COME TRUE...850MB TEMPS OF -2C MAY YIELD
SOME WET SNOW. ANY SHIFT FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED
MONITORING AS PRECIPITATION TYPES AND CHANCES WOULD CHANGE. DRIER
WEATHER SLATED FOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT ALL WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TERMINALS THROUGH THE 12 UTC TAF PERIOD. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES...ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER
AT THIS TIME BELIEVE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED AND HAVE LEFT
MENTION OF THEM OUT OF THE TAFS. IN SHOWERS AND THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT ALL CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TERMINALS.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH KISN AROUND 21 UTC AND WILL PROGRESS
SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS
WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AND SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK UP.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...MM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
615 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE
PUSHING INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
GENERATING PRECIPITATION UP ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER AND MOVING
NORTH WITH TIME. CURRENT FORECAST WITH LIKELY POPS TRANSITIONING
TO CATEGORICAL REMAINS ON TRACK...NO UPDATES TO CURRENT FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAINS ON INCOMING PRECIPITATION AND THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FIRST WAVE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVED INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
SHORTLY AROUND 07 UTC. THE HRRR DID A DECENT JOB OF TIMING THIS
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND HAS IT DIMINISHING AS IT
PROGRESSES NORTH. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH
THE LINE AND HAVE KEPT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT LINTON SHOWED HEAVY
RAIN WHILE A SHOWER WENT OVER AND REPORTED 0.20 INCHES. AT FIRST
GLANCE IT APPEARS THIS SYSTEM MAY WELL BRING THE MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL FORECASTED.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO WESTERN ND AROUND 18 UTC
WEDNESDAY AND INTO CENTRAL ND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
COINCIDE WITH 2-3 MORE EMBEDDED IMPULSES LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS BEFORE THE MAIN WAVE MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL SHOULD BE EXPERIENCED IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE...WITH STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS STILL DEPICTED FROM 0.5-1.5 INCHES. WITH BOTH THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF GENERATING 900-1200 J/KG OF MUCAPE OVER CENTRAL AND EAST
ALONG TO EAST OF THE FROPA...LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL (GREATER
THAN AN INCH) WITH CONVECTION WILL BE VERY POSSIBLE CONSIDERING
PWATS AROUND 1.25".
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
EXITING SYSTEM THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LEAVE BEHIND BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK FOR MAINLY SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY WANE THURSDAY/THURSDAY EVENING FROM
WEST TO EAST AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES THURSDAY
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND +1C FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 30S. AREAS OF FROST STILL APPEAR LIKELY DURING THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL
REACH INTO THE LOWER 60S TUESDAY. DRY BUT COOL FOR FRIDAY...THEN
THE NEXT CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL EJECT OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY. THE LATEST GFS KEEPS
THE PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND JUST ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF
ALSO FOLLOWS THIS IDEA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THEN PUSHES
THE PRECIPITATION BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THE SUPERBLEND ADVERTISES A ECMWF SOLUTION DURING
THIS PERIOD. IF THIS DOES COME TRUE...850MB TEMPS OF -2C MAY YIELD
SOME WET SNOW. ANY SHIFT FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED
MONITORING AS PRECIPITATION TYPES AND CHANCES WOULD CHANGE. DRIER
WEATHER SLATED FOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT ALL WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TERMINALS THROUGH THE 12 UTC TAF PERIOD. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES...ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER
AT THIS TIME BELIEVE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED AND HAVE LEFT
MENTION OF THEM OUT OF THE TAFS. IN SHOWERS AND THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT ALL CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TERMINALS.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH KISN AROUND 21 UTC AND WILL PROGRESS
SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS
WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AND SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK UP.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...MM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
850 AM PDT WED MAY 6 2015
.DISCUSSION...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE BEING OBSERVED THIS
MORNING...COURTESY OF A COOL UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE REGION.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CASCADES. THE LATEST HOURLY HRRR MODEL ALSO SHOWS SHOWERS
MOVING INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. WE HAVE INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE UMPQUA BASIN AND IN NORTHERN LAKE AND
KLAMATH COUNTIES BASED ON THIS LATEST GUIDANCE. ADDITIONALLY...ENOUGH
INSTABILITY EXISTS TO GENERATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A
NORTH TO SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINES WITH MODERATE NORTHERLY
700MB WINDS.
LASTLY...WE`LL BE EXAMINING THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST CONDITIONS
TONIGHT. THIS MORNING...LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAINED ABOVE
CRITICAL VALUES THANKS TO SOME CLOUD COVER AND SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. TONIGHT WE ARE AGAIN EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS OVER MOST
SOUTHERN OREGON VALLEYS...THOUGH SOME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
LOCATIONS COULD SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES. WE`LL ADDRESS THIS IN
THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.
PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS ON THE
UPCOMING WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 06/12Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT FOR TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS IN SHOWERS
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN WITH SOME HIGHER TERRAIN
OCCASIONALLY BECOMING OBSCURED. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR ALL TERMINALS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT WEDNESDAY 6 MAY 2015...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO THIS WEEKEND. A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE
COAST WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN WEAKEN THIS
WEEKEND. MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SMALL CRAFT, BUT THE MODELS HINT
THAT WINDS COULD BRIEFLY REACH GALES OVER A SMALL PORTION OF THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 218 AM PDT WED MAY 6 2015/
DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS
MORNING HAS MADE LESS PROGRESS IN OUR DIRECTION THAN EXPECTED, BUT
NEVERTHELESS, IT CONTINUES TO MEANDER TO THE SOUTH. LATEST
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SHOWS THE LOW OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
OREGON THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
BY TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM HAS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, SO
IT ISN`T EXPECTED TO DO MUCH OVER OUR AREA, BUT IT WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADE CREST EASTWARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR A CHANGE TODAY.
SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES, THEN
THEY WILL REDEVELOP TOMORROW, PRIMARILY OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC
COUNTIES IN CALIFORNIA. THE ONE THING THAT MAY BE A MINOR IMPACT
TOMORROW IS WIND ON THE EAST SIDE. THE LOW WILL BE VERTICALLY
STACKED, AND AS IT PULLS TO THE SOUTH, STRONG GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL MIX DOWN OVER EASTERN KLAMATH, LAKE, AND MODOC
COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON. WHILE FORECAST WIND SPEEDS FALL SHORT
OF ADVISORY LEVEL, WINDS MAY GUST TO 40 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.
AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST ON FRIDAY, A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE PACNW WHICH WILL MOVE OVER
US DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING US MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY
WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN BRIEFLY TAKES ON THE LOOK OF AN
OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT THEN THE RIDGE GETS PINCHED OFF
AND MOVES NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH ALLOWS LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE
OVER US FROM THE WEST. WHILE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION
OF THE VARIOUS FEATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE
ON THE BASIC EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN. IF THIS HAPPENS, WE SHOULD
SEE COOLER, SHOWERY WEATHER EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. -WRIGHT
FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 2 AM PDT WEDNESDAY, MAY 6, 2015...AN UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH A COOL POOL ALOFT AT
500 MB WITH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -27 AND -29 C MOVING OVERHEAD AT
THE TIME OF MAX HEATING RESULTING IN INCREASING MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. THE MODELS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WARRANT
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADES EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MODELS PUTS THE GREATEST INSTABILITY
ALONG THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SO IT`S POSSIBLE MOST
OF THE ISOLATED STORMS WILL OCCUR THERE, BUT THERE`S ALSO A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THESE STORMS TO BE RAIN PRODUCERS. THE UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN CAL ON THURSDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED STORMS CONFINED TO MODOC COUNTY. HOWEVER THE MODELS SHOW
700 MB WINDS INCREASING BETWEEN 30-40 KTS FROM THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND THIS ALONG WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY AND TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT COULD RESULT IN SOME OF THOSE
STRONGER WINDS MIXING DOWN AT THE SURFACE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES. THIS COULD RESULT IN MODERATE RECOVERIES LATE TONIGHT
ALONG THE MID SLOPES AND RIDGES, BUT MIN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE HIGHER COMPARED TO TODAY WHICH IS A
GOOD THING. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM
PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
$$
NSK/TRW/MAP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1141 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. IT WILL STAY
MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE SFC WAS DRAPED NEARLY EAST/WEST
ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE LATE THIS MORNING. THE GREATEST SLOPE
OF THE 925-850 MB BOUNDARY IS OVER THE REGION NEAR INTESTATE 80.
A COMPACT AND FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE ALOFT RIDING ESE OVER THIS
BOUNDARY LED TO A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN EARLIER IN
THE DAY...WITH A FEW DISCRETE TSRA NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 IN CENTRAL PENN.
LATEST...14Z HRRR CONFIRMS THAT THIS PRECIP WILL EXIT THE SUSQ
VALLEY SHORTLY...FOLLOWED BY A LULL IN THE PRECIP FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80
AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT OCCURS...AND SKIES STAY MAINLY
CLOUDY.
THE INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY POP SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSRA DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON - MAINLY
NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF RT22/322 IN SOUTHERN PENN.
THE COVERAGE WILL BE GENERALLY SCATTERED...AND IN A FEW CLUSTERS.
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PULSE UP PRETTY HIGH WHERE SFC-BASED
CAPES CLIMB ABOVE 1300 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM THE WNW WILL BE
ON THE WEAK SIDE...SO PEAKS GUSTS IN THE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD BE
BELOW 40 MPH WITH SOME SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS.
MAX TEMPS IN THE N WILL BE IN THE L-M60S...BUT GET INTO THE
M-U70S IN THE S. THESE ARE PRETTY NORMAL TEMPS FOR EARLY
MAY. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY BY FAR OVER THE
UPCOMING 7 DAYS /OR MORE/.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL DWINDLE IN THE EVENING...GENERALLY BEING CONFINED TO
THE LAURELS/SC MTNS AFTER DARK. THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE
RAIN-FREE...BUT CLOUDS COULD CONTINUE TO COVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE WEST AND FOG IS POSSIBLE IF
THE CLEARING CAN DEVELOP. MINS WILL STICK ABOUT 10F ABOVE NORMALS
SINCE THE CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO HANG ON.
A RIDGE PUMPS UP OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND SHOULD CUT OFF THE MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE
WEST. BUT BEFORE THE MOISTURE DECREASES TOO MUCH...THE DAYTIME
HEATING ON THURS COULD POP ISOLD/SCT AFTN SHRA OFF OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN - MAINLY ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND ESP THE
LAURELS. WILL STICK WITH A 20-30 POP THERE. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER
IS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THAT GENERAL AREA...NOT ENOUGH OF A CHC EXISTS
TO MENTION AT THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL RISE AS MUCH OF THE MORNING
CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP. GIVEN THE ALREADY-WARM START TO THE
DAY...AFTN TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN GET 10F ABOVE NORMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO
WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION FRI-SUN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST NDFD POPS ARE MON-TUE. CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPERATURES DROPS OFF TO AVG BY THIS TIME WITH MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES SOMEWHAT AT ODDS WITH RESPECT TO MAINTAINING A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE VS. A COOLER MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL HAVE
NOT DEVIATED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND
FAVORED MORE OF A MIXED BLEND FOR DAYS 7 AND 8.
SUBTROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO
STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR
ONSHORE FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER SUSQ VALLYE LATE THIS
MORNING /WITH SOME ISOLATED TSRA INVOF /OR JUST SOUTH/ OR KMDT
WILL LIKELY PASS 15-20 MILES SOUTH OF KLNS OVER THE NEXT 90
MINUTES.
AFTERWARD...THE PRESENCE OF A PERSISTENT EAST WEST FROM BOUNDARY
OVER THE STATE IN THE SFC-5 KFT AGL LAYER WILL HELP TO KEEP PLENTY
OF MVFR TO VFR CLOUDS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PENN DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
EXPECT BFD TO HAVE THE MAIN CHANCE TO HAVE IFR AND OCNLY LIFR IN
THE MOIST AND COOLER AIR NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY....THOUGH
IFR TO LIFR APPEARS THAT IT/LL PERSIST ALSO INVOF KUNV...AND KFIG
WITH MVFR OVS SKIES AT KIPT.
LIGHT WIND AND PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WILL COMBINE WITH MDTLY
HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY
DENSE WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE AT NUMEROUS
AIRFIELDS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT /04Z/ AND 12Z THURSDAY.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THU INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NW...AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO CENTRAL PA.
OUTLOOK...
THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.
FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.
SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1003 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. IT WILL STAY
MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE SFC WAS DRAPED NEARLY EAST/WEST
ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE LATE THIS MORNING. THE GREATEST SLOPE
OF THE 925-850 MB BOUNDARY IS OVER THE REGION NEAR INTESTATE 80.
A COMPACT AND FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE ALOFT RIDING ESE OVER THIS
BOUNDARY LED TO A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN EARLIER IN
THE DAY...WITH A FEW DISCRETE TSRA NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 IN CENTRAL PENN.
LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS THAT THIS PRECIP WILL EXIT OUR EAST ZONES
BETWEEN 15-16Z...FOLLOWED BY A LULL IN PRECIP THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z
AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT OCCURS.
THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY POP SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSRA DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON - MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WCENT PENN AND THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
THE COVERAGE WILL BE RATHER SPARSE...THOUGH AND WE DECREASE THE
POPS TO JUST 20-30 PERCENT IN MOST PLACES THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH THOUGH IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST...AND WILL
PROBABLY KEEP IT LARGELY TOO STABLE/COOL TO GENERATE MUCH
INSTABILITY OR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS NORTH AND EAST OF A KBFD TO KUNV
AND KSEG LINE. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH A SMALL POP FOR THE AFTN.
MAX TEMPS IN THE N WILL BE IN THE L-M60S...BUT GET INTO THE
M-U70S IN THE S. THESE ARE PRETTY NORMAL NUMBERS. THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST DAY BY FAR FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS OR MORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL DWINDLE IN THE EVENING...GENERALLY BEING CONFINED TO
THE LAURELS/SC MTNS AFTER DARK. THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE
RAIN-FREE...BUT CLOUDS COULD CONTINUE TO COVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE WEST AND FOG IS POSSIBLE IF
THE CLEARING CAN DEVELOP. MINS WILL STICK ABOUT 10F ABOVE NORMALS
SINCE THE CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO HANG ON.
A RIDGE PUMPS UP OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND SHOULD CUT OFF THE MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE
WEST. BUT BEFORE THE MOISTURE DECREASES TOO MUCH...THE DAYTIME
HEATING ON THURS COULD POP ISOLD/SCT AFTN SHRA OFF OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN - MAINLY ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND ESP THE
LAURELS. WILL STICK WITH A 20-30 POP THERE. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER
IS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THAT GENERAL AREA...NOT ENOUGH OF A CHC EXISTS
TO MENTION AT THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL RISE AS MUCH OF THE MORNING
CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP. GIVEN THE ALREADY-WARM START TO THE
DAY...AFTN TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN GET 10F ABOVE NORMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO
WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION FRI-SUN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST NDFD POPS ARE MON-TUE. CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPERATURES DROPS OFF TO AVG BY THIS TIME WITH MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES SOMEWHAT AT ODDS WITH RESPECT TO MAINTAINING A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE VS. A COOLER MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL HAVE
NOT DEVIATED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND
FAVORED MORE OF A MIXED BLEND FOR DAYS 7 AND 8.
SUBTROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO
STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR
ONSHORE FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER SUSQ VALLYE LATE THIS
MONRING /WITH SOME ISOLATED TSRA HEADED TWD KMDT AND KLNS OVER THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS/ WILL SCOOT EAST OF THE REGION BY SHORTLY AFTER
16Z.
AFTERWARD...THE PRESENCE OF A PERSISTENT EAST WEST FROM BOUNDARY
OVER THE STATE IN THE SFC-5 KFT AGL LAYER WILL HELP TO KEEP PLENTY
OF MVFR TO VFR CLOUDS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PENN DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
EXPECT BFD TO HAVE THE MAIN CHANCE TO HAVE IFR AND OCNLY LIFR IN
THE MOIST AND COOLER AIR NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THU INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NW...AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO CENTRAL PA.
LIGHT WIND AND PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WILL COMBINE WITH MDTLY
HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY
DENSE WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE AT NUMEROUS
AIRFIELDS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT /04Z/ AND 12Z THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.
FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.
SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
755 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. IT WILL
STAY MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WHAT WAS A FAIRLY CONSISTENT/HOMOGENOUS AREA OF RAIN HAS BROKEN
INTO MORE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AS IT HAS SLID INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND MID SUSQ VALEY. ONLY SAW ONE LTG STRIKE SO FAR THIS
MORNING...BUT SOME OF THE CELLS ARE CARRYING 50 DBZS AND HAVE A
SLIGHT CHC TO PRODUCE THUNDER. TINY DISCRETE CELLS IN THE SRN MTNS
ARE MOVING QUICKLY AS ARE THE OTHER SHOWERS. THEREFORE LITTLE
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN EXISTS. THE RADAR ESTIMATES OVER THE PAST 6
HRS HAS A STRIPE OF ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...BUT NOTHING MORE
SIGNIFICANT. HRRR AND RUC SLIDE THE CURRENT PRECIP FAIRLY STRAIGHT
TO THE EAST...WHILE THE NAM AND HI RES ARW ALLOW THE QPF TO EXPAND
A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTH. HAVE PAINTED HIGH POPS FOR THE NRN HALF
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND FOLLOWED THE MAJORITY OPINION IN
CARRYING THE BULK OF THE PRECIP TO THE EAST. A LULL IN PRECIP
SHOULD OCCUR FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY POP SHOWERS/TSRA - MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
COVERAGE WILL BE RATHER SPARSE...THOUGH. CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH IN
THE CENTRAL AND EAST...AND WILL PROBABLY KEEP IT LARGELY TOO
STABLE/COOL TO GENERATE MUCH INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH A
SMALL POP FOR THE AFTN. MAXES IN THE N WILL BE IN THE L-M60S...BUT
GET INTO THE M-U70S IN THE S. THESE ARE PRETTY NORMAL NUMBERS. THIS
WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY BY FAR FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS OR MORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL DWINDLE IN THE EVENING...GENERALLY BEING CONFINED TO
THE LAURELS/SC MTNS AFTER DARK. THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE
RAIN-FREE...BUT CLOUDS COULD CONTINUE TO COVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE WEST AND FOG IS POSSIBLE IF
THE CLEARING CAN DEVELOP. MINS WILL STICK ABOUT 10F ABOVE NORMALS
SINCE THE CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO HANG ON.
A RIDGE PUMPS UP OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND SHOULD CUT OFF THE MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE
WEST. BUT BEFORE THE MOISTURE DECREASES TOO MUCH...THE DAYTIME
HEATING ON THURS COULD POP ISOLD/SCT AFTN SHRA OFF OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN - MAINLY ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND ESP THE
LAURELS. WILL STICK WITH A 20-30 POP THERE. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER
IS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THAT GENERAL AREA...NOT ENOUGH OF A CHC EXISTS
TO MENTION AT THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL RISE AS MUCH OF THE MORNING
CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP. GIVEN THE ALREADY-WARM START TO THE
DAY...AFTN TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN GET 10F ABOVE NORMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO
WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION FRI-SUN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST NDFD POPS ARE MON-TUE. CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPERATURES DROPS OFF TO AVG BY THIS TIME WITH MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES SOMEWHAT AT ODDS WITH RESPECT TO MAINTAINING A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE VS. A COOLER MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL HAVE
NOT DEVIATED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND
FAVORED MORE OF A MIXED BLEND FOR DAYS 7 AND 8.
SUBTROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO
STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR
ONSHORE FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE AREA OF
SHOWERS. ADJUSTED THE 12Z TAFS FOR THIS...ALONG WITH IFR
CONDITIONS THAT HAVE FORMED IN THE LAST FEW MINUTES.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS N PA WITH EAST...WEST COLD FRONT. AN
ISOLATED LOW TOP THUNDERSTORM AT TIMES BASED ON ECHO TOPS. EXPECT
BFD TO HAVE THE MAIN CHANCE TO HAVE IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY SAG TO THE SOUTH...AS
FRONT BECOMES MORE NW TO SE LATER TODAY. THUS OTHER SITES MAY
SEE LOWER CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THU INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NW...AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO CENTRAL PA.
OUTLOOK...
THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.
FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.
SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
942 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...
AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS TO WHETHER OR NOT IT
REMAINS OFFSHORE OR MOVES INLAND OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF THE
CAROLINAS. THE LOW WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY AND MAY NOT DEPART TO THE
EAST UNTIL MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
OF 945 AM...GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING TEMPS TO
SPIKE UPWARD QUICKLY... ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS.
THEREFORE...ADJUSTED TEMP TRENDS. LATEST HRRR NOT EXCITED AT ALL
ABOUT CONVECTIVE CHANCES IN THE MOUTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL CAP
LOOKS TOO STRONG TO OVERCOME EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN
ALONG THE TN BORDER. BLENDED IN LATEST CONSHORT INTO POP GRID WHICH
TAMPED POPS DOWN TO AREAS OF ABOUT 20% ALONG THE TN BORDER IN
WESTERN NC.
AS OF 810 AM...DID A QUICK UPDATE MAINLY TO CAPTURE LATEST HOURLY
TEMP TREND. OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK.
AS OF 620 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...CALM WINDS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA. ALTHOUGH THINNING
SOMEWHAT...STILL SEEING SOME PATCHY HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS ACROSS THE
EASTERN MOST ZONES PER IR SAT. AS PREVIOUSLY FCST...VISB
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO PATCHY DENSE FOG ARE EVIDENT IN AND AROUND THE
LITTLE TN RIVER VALLEY...WITH IMPROVEMENT FCST AFTER SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES NEEDED/MADE TO THE FCST WITH THIS UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN THIS MORNING CONSISTS
OF AN UPPER TROF ATOP THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES SLIDING THROUGH THE TROF BASE OVER THE OK/TX PANHANDLE
REGION. FURTHER EAST...SHARP UPPER RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
SLIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WHILE A CLOSED LOW
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OFF THE SOUTH FLORIDA COASTLINE. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
ELONGATE/ERODE AS A SURFACE DISTURBANCE BENEATH THE ABOVE MENTIONED
FLORIDA COASTAL H5 LOW SLIDES NORTHWARD. IN RESPONSE...PRIMARY
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FETCH THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER NORTHEAST GA
AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL GIVE WAY TO BACKED SURFACE FLOW.
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING IN ALOFT WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THUS PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE FEATURED IN THE FCST. AS FOR POPS...MODEL OUTPUT IS
RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE WILL LITTLE INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR
CONVECTION...THUS ONLY ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHRA AND OR TSRA IS
MENTIONED ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. THEREFORE NORTHEAST GA ALONG
WITH THE NC/SC PIEDMONT REGIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE LOWER 80S. ALL POPS WILL FALL OFF THIS EVENING AS
HEATING IS LOST...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LOWS ON THURSDAY MORNING WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO AS NOCTURNAL SKY COVER LIMITS
RADIATIONAL COOLING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...THE OBVIOUS CONCERN WITH THE LATER PART OF
THE WEEK CONTINUES TO BE THE FATE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS EXPECTED
TO HAVE DEVELOPED/ORGANIZED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THURSDAY
MORNING. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN THE FCST TRACK OF THE LOW WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT ON
THE PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE ERN ZONES. THE FCST GENERALLY LEANS
TOWARD THE ECMWF WITH ITS KEEPING THE LOW CENTER OVER THE GULF
STREAM A BIT LONGER...AND AWAY FROM THE GFS WHICH MOVES THE LOW THE
FARTHEST WEST...BECAUSE OF A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE STEERING FLOW
THAT WOULD RESULT IN THAT WESTWARD JOG. THE FARTHER EAST THE LOW
TRACKS...THE MORE LIKELY THAT THE WESTERN CAROLINAS/NE GEORGIA WILL
REMAIN UNDER SOME SORT OF WEAK SUBSIDENCE...OR AT LEAST AN AREA OF
RELATIVELY DRY AIR...AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. FOR THAT
REASON...AM NOT PARTICULARLY EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES THRU THE
PERIOD...AND ESPECIALLY NOT THURSDAY WHEN THE LOW IS STILL WELL
OFFSHORE. THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIP ON THURSDAY
WILL BE ON THE TN BORDER WHERE WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE
BEST. ON FRIDAY...THERE IS THE CHANCE THAT SOME PRECIP COULD DRIFT
IN FROM THE EAST DURING THE DAY...SO THE PRECIP CHANCES RAMP UP
THERE...AND ARE KEPT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE USUAL
DIURNAL WEAKENING CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE MTNS. TEMPS SHOULD BE A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS OVER THE EASTERN-MOST
ZONES WHERE PRECIP/CLOUDS COULD MOVE IN FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...WE FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW PRESSURE
OF SOMEWHAT TROPICAL NATURE EITHER OFF THE CAROLINA COAST OR OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION ULTIMATELY HAS
THE BEST HANDLE ON IT. ALL THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY N BUT BE LEFT ADRIFT FOR THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW
OFFSHORE THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD AND THAT SOLUTION WAS GENERALLY
FAVORED WITH THE THINKING THAT THE LOW MIGHT STAY CLOSER TO THE GULF
STREAM WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE BETTER. THAT WOULD KEEP THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS/NE GEORGIA IN THE UNFAVORABLE AREA WELL W/NW OF THE LOW
WHERE WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR GETTING ENTRAINED FROM THE N WOULD
KEEP A LID ON CONVECTION. WILL NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE FCST
BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY...BUT WILL TAKE THIS
OPPORTUNITY TO IMPROVE SOME INCONSISTENCY WITH NEIGHBORING FCST
OFFICES IN TERMS OF PRECIP CHANCES. IT LOOKS LIKE THE LOW WILL
FINALLY DRIFT AWAY TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. THEREAFTER...WE LOOK TO A
SURFACE FRONT COMING IN FROM THE WEST AS THE UPPER PATTERN FINALLY
STARTS MOVING AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...STILL MAINLY A WIND FCST WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. CALM WINDS AT TAF INITIALIZATION WILL GIVE WAY
TO LIGHT ENE FLOW AS PARENT HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC COAST SHIFTS
FURTHER EAST ALLOWING FLOW AROUND NORTHERN FLANK OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE FL COAST TO INFLUENCE THE PATTERN. PERIODICAL CROSS
WINDS ARE STILL A POSSIBILITY WITH FLOW IN THE 3-6KTS RANGE. SKIES
WILL REMAIN FEW/SCT AS HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMS IN ALOFT FROM THE
SOUTH.
ELSEHWERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE AS VFR PREVAILS. OTHERWISE
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BENEATH LIGHT ESE
FLOW. WINDS WILL CALM OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH AREAS OF
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. HOWEVER...DID NOT
INCLUDE ANY WX/BR AT KAVL WITH THIS ISSUANCE.
OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL MOUNTAIN CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...AS MOIST FLOW PERSISTS. LOW CLOUDS AND
OR FOG RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING WHERE PRIOR
AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION OCCURRED.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
13-19Z 19-01Z 01-07Z 07-12Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 66%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 66%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 66%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 66%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 66%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 66%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...CDG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
1016 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
.DISCUSSION...
12Z SOUNDINGS AT OHX AND FFC SHOW A MIDLEVEL STABLE LAYER THAT
SHOULD HELP TO CAP CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS STABLE LAYER REMAINING
IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY AT CHA. THERE IS AN INVERSION IN THE RNK
SOUNDING AS WELL...BUT THE NAM WEAKENS IT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
AREAS. THE HRRR AND RAP DEVELOP QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IN
SW VA THIS AFTERNOON...AND NOT JUST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS A
RESULT...THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS IN
SW VA TO A CHANCE...AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FARTHER SOUTH
INTO THE TRI- CITIES AREA. HIGHS YESTERDAY REACHED THE MID 80S
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...AND BASED ON REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS BEING
SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE LOW LEVELS TODAY...WILL BRING HIGH TEMPS UP
TO AT LEAST AS HIGH AS WE SAW YESTERDAY.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
607 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE DENSE FOG HAS EXPANDED INTO
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND A CHECK WITH OFFICIALS IN GRANT COUNTY
CONFIRM THAT IT IS REDUCING THE VISIBILITY. BASED ON THIS...HAVE
EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHEAST IOWA
INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT
FOR SOME AREAS. CLOSED CIRCULATION EJECTING OUT OF THE MEAN TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS...SPINNING OVER COLORADO
OVERNIGHT. FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION LEADING TO SHOWERS FROM CENTRAL MN ACROSS
PRIMARILY THE NORTHERN HALF OF WI. MEANWHILE...STRONGER DYNAMIC
FORCING NEARER THE MAIN LOW CENTER LEADING TO CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT FROM KS/MO UP INTO IA. MAIN CIRCULATION AND FORCING
WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT. CONTINUED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO OUR AREA SUGGESTS THAT SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AND AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN
AND NORTHEAST IA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER IT DOES APPEAR
THE BETTER SUPPORT WILL REMAIN FURTHER WEST. HAVE BEEN MAINTAINING
RAIN CHANCE GRADIENT DIMINISHING FURTHER EAST FOR A FEW DAYS NOW
AND WILL KEEP THE GENERAL TREND THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
DESPITE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN...WARM ADVECTION AND ANY
RANDOM PEEK AT THE SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES MAKE IT UP INTO THE
70S. AND A FEW LOCALIZED 80 DEGREE READINGS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL MAKE THE TIMING DETAILS OF THE
FORECAST CHALLENGING FOR THE NEXT WEEK TO 10 DAYS. DAKOTAS WAVE
CONTINUES NORTH INTO CANADA...WITH SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH
HELPING TO KICK THE TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. GULF WILL BE WIDE OPEN AT THIS POINT
SO MOISTURE RETURN AND INSTABILITY SHOULD DRIVE SOME CONVECTION
THROUGH THE REGION WITH RAIN LIKELY DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...
SUPPORTED BY ALL MODELS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW FAR
AND HOW FAST THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. GFS MOST
ROBUST WITH THE SURGE OF COOLER/DRIER AIR. ECMWF TRENDING THAT WAY
TOO LEADING TO A BIT HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME. OPTED TO FAVOR THE GFS FOR THIS PERIOD DUE TO THE TREND.
MAIN LONG WAVE TROUGH FINALLY LOOKING TO FULLY EJECT OUT OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND...TAKING ITS TIME TRACKING INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE MON/TUE. MODELS IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF FEATURES AS THIS TAKES
PLACE. MAIN SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BY
SUNDAY MORNING. IF THIS TIMING HOLDS...SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
COULD BE INTERESTING WITH SEVERAL PARAMETERS FALLING INTO PLACE
FOR A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK FROM THE PLAINS UP TOWARD IA. LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LOOKS PRETTY WET UNDER THIS SCENARIO AS THE
SYSTEM SLOWLY TRAVERSES THE TRI-STATE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS AT KRST AND BOTH THE
06.09Z RAP AND 06.06Z NAM SUGGEST THIS WILL HOLD ON UNTIL ABOUT
14Z OR SO AND THEN RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS THE MIXING INCREASES. PLAN
TO SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT OUT OF LIFR TO IFR AROUND 14Z AND THEN
IMPROVE THE VISIBILITY TO VFR AND CEILINGS TO MVFR AROUND 16Z.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS
START TO GUST OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THE VISIBILITY HAS NOT DROPPED
AS LOW AT KLSE AND EXPECT THAT THIS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID
MORNING. THE CEILINGS SHOULD COME UP TO MVFR BY MID MORNING AND
THEN VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH
STARTS TO APPROACH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE NAM SUGGESTS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THESE TWO FEATURES SHOULD
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME STORMS FROM
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE INTRODUCED VCSH FOR
BOTH TAF SITES TO COVER THIS BUT DID NOT PUT ANY THUNDER IN YET AS
THE NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAPE STAYS UNDER 500 J/KG FOR RIGHT
NOW. IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE...EXPECT THAT THE SHOWERS WILL HAVE
TO BECOME PREVAILING WITH AT LEAST THE INCLUSION OF A VCTS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ054-061.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ086-087-
094-095.
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ008>011-
018-019-029-030.
&&
$$
UPDATE...04
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
627 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015
AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM LARAMIE COUNTY
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NIOBRARA AND CONVERSE COUNTIES. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEFORMATION AREA ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
MIDLVL LOW THAT IS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. NOT EXPECTING THIS
BAND TO MOVE MUCH THROUGH THE MORNING...SO THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS
OF THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH 18Z. IT WILL REMAIN A
STEADY LIGHT RAIN WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF ANY TSTMS...BUT STILL
COULD SEE WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.50 INCHES ALONG AND EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE IN SOUTHEAST WY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA BY THIS AFTN.
THUS...THIS AREA OF ENHANCED VERTICAL ASCENT WILL SHIFT INTO THE
NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AFTER 18Z. WE MAY ACTUALLY SEE SOME
PEAKS OF SUNSHINE OVER SOUTHEAST WY BY MIDDAY AND BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTN. COULD
SEE AN ISOLATED TSTM WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING WITH A DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND
IT AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL REALLY DECREASE AFTER THE LATE EVENING.
WITH DECREASING MOISTURE LEVELS AND A GENERALLY STABLE
AIRMASS...WILL SEE A DECREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...MOST NOTABLE TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. AREAS
ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER IN SOUTHEAST WY WILL SEE THE BEST
INSTABILITY ON THURS AFTN (CAPE VALUES OF 300-600 J/KG) SO SCT
STORMS WILL DEVELOP THERE. THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN AND HIGHER PRESSURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL MAINTAIN NORTHEAST TO EAST UPSLOPE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. SREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AREAS OF FOG COULD BE A
CONCERN ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE. WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT LOW
CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. ONCE AGAIN...THE
BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL EXIST ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH THE AFTN...AND THEN POTENTIALLY SPREAD
EASTWARD TO THE PLAINS BY THE EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DEALING WITH A
MAJOR WINTER STORM THIS WEEKEND. FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH
SNOW LEVELS AND AMOUNTS ALONG WITH TIMING OF RAIN.
STARTING OFF FRIDAY NIGHT...AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN STATIONARY ALONG THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE...THROUGH CENTRAL COLORADO...UP INTO WESTERN WYOMING.
PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO
THE FRONT RANGE AND INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING. THE CWFA IS SQUARE IN
THE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AT 500MBS AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN UTAH, WE SHOULD BE SEEING
WIDESPREAD RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN VERY SIMILAR IN THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW
INTO WESTERN COLORADO SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL
APPEARS LIKELY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. VERY
STRONG 700MB SOUTHEAST UPSLOPING WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON THE
ORDER OF 40 TO 45KTS WILL ENHANCE RAIN AMOUNTS ALONG THE EASTERN
FOOTHILLS AND POSSIBLY THE EASTERN PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
WENT AHEAD AND ADDED POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE RAINS IN THE FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
COLDER 700MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON TRACK FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY ECMWF SHOWING -4 TO -6C ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AT
00Z...DECREASING TO -6 TO -8C SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST 850MB
WINDS INCREASE TO 45-50KTS ON THE ECMWF AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS
INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. ADDED CHANCES FOR MODERATE AND HEAVY SNOW
INTO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS FREEZING LEVELS
DROP TO 5500 FEET AND POSSIBLY LOWER DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WILL
ISSUE AN SPS ON THIS UPCOMING EVENT TO ALERT CUSTOMERS OF
SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER.
CONTINUED TO CUT GUIDANCE SIGNIFICANTLY ON TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AS
THE SNOW WILL START SATURDAY NIGHT AND ENVISION IT LASTING MOST OF
THE DAY SUNDAY. WILL PROBABLY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S FOR
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING...WITH UPPER 30S/LOW 40S IN THE
PANHANDLE. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF VERY SLOW MOVING THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW EASTWARD...SO SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
FORECAST QPF GUIDANCE IS SCARY...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOWING 1.5-2.0 INCHES OF LIQUID SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. EVEN A 10 TO 1 RATIO ON SNOW WOULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL. THEN ADD 35 TO 40 MPH NORTHEAST WINDS ON TOP OF THAT AND
WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A VERY DANGEROUS CONDITION.
BY MONDAY MORNING...ECMWF HAS THE UPPER LOW IN EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES OF -8 TO -10C OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS APPEAR LIKELY MONDAY MORNING THAT
WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.
SINCE THE EVENT IS STILL 4 DAYS OUT...CONDITIONS COULD CHANGE. THE
LOW COULD TRACK FURTHER NORTH AND THEN WE WOULD BE DRY SLOTTED. IF
CURRENT TRACKS THOUGH FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE AS THEY HAVE
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS THOUGH...DO BELIEVE THIS COULD BE THE
BIGGEST SNOW STORM THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR QUITE A WHILE HERE IN
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. COULD BE LOOKING AT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALL DAY SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF OUR SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AIRPORTS. LACK OF AVAILABLE HRRR GUIDANCE
HAS US AT LESS THAN HIGH CONFIDENCE. PERSISTENCE WOULD INDICATE
LOW CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUING.
AT LEAST THROUGH THE 18Z TIMEFRAME.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015
A COOL AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS VERY
LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE REGION BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD
AND LARGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...ZF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
246 PM PDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SIERRA CREST EARLY THIS
EVENING...DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE DISTRICT TONIGHT. A
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WINTERY WEATHER TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF
THE SIERRA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. DRY WEATHER AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WERE
OBSERVED THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AS A STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER
WASHINGTON AND OREGON CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARD THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...THE SIERRA
NEVADA FOOTHILLS...AND THE DESERT WERE GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO
LOW 80S...A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF MAY.
CLOUDS HAVE FORMED OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE BLOWING FROM
WEST TO EAST...ALL ACTIVITY IS QUICKLY MOVING TO THE EAST OF THE
CREST. THE HIGH RES ARW AND NMM AS WELL AS THE HRRR KEEP ALL
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST OF THE REGION...ADDING
CONFIDENCE THAT THE AREA WILL NOT SEE ANY ACTIVITY THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
BIG CHANGES IN THE WEATHER PATTERN ARE IN STORE FOR THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS COLDER LATE SEASON STORM IMPACTS THE
REGION. THE OPERATIONAL RUNS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE ALL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ABOUT THE TRACK OF AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST HEADING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. BY EARLY
TOMORROW (THURSDAY) MORNING...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OVER THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL SIERRA
NEVADA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE SPREADING SOUTH
IMPACTING THE ENTIRE SIERRA NEVADA BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS. AS
THE CENTER OF THE LOW TRACKS SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION...SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...THE UPPER LOW WILL STALL OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS...INCLUDING THE WEST SIDE OF THE VALLEY AND
THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
SNOW LEVELS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL START AROUND 7,500 FEET LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND FALL TO AROUND 6,000 FEET
BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING AS COLD AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THE UPPER LOW. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE 6,000
FEET BETWEEN THURSDAY LATE MORNING AND FRIDAY EVENING. UP TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED AREAS WITH THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA ABOVE 6,000 FEET.
ADDITIONALLY...AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
STORM...WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. SURFACE CAPE VALUES PEAK BETWEEN 350 AND 800 J/KG
THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION ACCORDING TO THE HIGH RES ARW...THE
NAM...AND THE GFS...ADDING TO FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SIERRA NEVADA...A QUICK FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...EVEN
LOWER THAN THE 6,000 FOOT SNOW LEVELS. THOSE PLANNING A
BACKPACKING OR HIKING TRIP TO THE SIERRA NEVADA SHOULD PLAN
ACCORDINGLY.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE
REGION...LEAVING BEHIND A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SIERRA
NEVADA...WITH DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER.
ANOTHER COOLING TREND WILL BE PRESENT DURING THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW SHIFTS SOUTH SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COASTLINE. THIS STORM IS
FORECAST TO KEEP ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CREST
OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 05-06 100:1987 58:1921 69:1992 41:1975
KFAT 05-07 103:1987 56:1905 69:1989 36:1965
KFAT 05-08 101:2001 59:1977 71:1987 39:1933
KBFL 05-06 104:1987 55:1921 71:1989 42:1988
KBFL 05-07 101:1987 61:1930 70:1989 42:1965
KBFL 05-08 100:1987 63:1933 71:1906 40:1908
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 5 PM PDT FRIDAY
CAZ096-097.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
448 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2015
THE STRONG LOW THAT MOVED OVER THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE MOVING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT.
NW AND CENTRAL CO AND NE UT WILL BE BENEATH THE NW FLOW ALOFT
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE STORM...WHERE UNSTABLE AND MOIST
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. A FEW STORMS HAVE BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
OVER NORTHWEST CO AND NE UT WILL ALSO AS SOME SUPPORT FOR
CONVECTION UNTIL ABOUT 03Z THIS EVENING. SUBSIDENCE AND GRADUALLY
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO EASTER UT...AND NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL
CO AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVER SW CO...THE HRRR AND NAM12 SHOW ANOTHER
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT.
THURSDAY MORNING...IN SOUTH FLOW A WEAK WAVE WORKS THROUGH THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE DIMINISHING THERE
SO ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FORECASTED ACROSS THE SOUTH FAVORING
THE SAN JUANS. DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY
ALONG WITH SOME WEAK FRONTAL FORCING. MARGINAL AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAINLY OVER MTNS
NORTH OF I-70.
TONIGHT DRIER SW FLOW INVADES LIMITING NIGHTTIME SHOWERS TO NEAR
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.
THE NEXT STRONGER PACIFIC LOW SINKS THROUGH CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY
THEN BEGINS TO AMBLE INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2015
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THESE
PERIODS. ONE STRONG UPPER LOW WILL PASS ON SATURDAY BRINGING A
BLAST OF NORTHERN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. TWO OTHER TROUGHS CURRENTLY
ARE TIMED TO PASS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
FRIDAY THE UPPER LOW WITH A MODIFYING BUT IMPRESSIVE -26C COLD
CORE WORKS NORTH OF LAS VEGAS TO SOUTHCENTRAL UTAH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THE THERMAL RIDGE
BLOSSOMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND HAVE RAISED
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE WARMER NAM GUIDANCE. A 70KT JET NOSE
POKES INTO SE UTAH IN THE AFTERNOON AND RAKES THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
COOL ADVECTION ALOFT BEGINS TO DESTABILIZE BUT AVAILABLE MOISTURE
IS LIMITED AND MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
SATURDAY THE POTENTIAL VORTICITY CENTER RAKES THE NORTH AS THE
JET WRAPS UP THE FRONT RANGE. FRONTAL FORCING SEEN IN THE PARK
RANGE BY THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BUT WILL EXTEND INTO THE CENTRAL CO MTNS. SNOW
LEVELS DROP TO AROUND 8KFT...AND WILL BRIEFLY BE LOWER IN
STRONGER CONVECTION. THE LOW LIFTS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WRAP- AROUND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SHOWERS FAVORING THE NORTH. SUNDAY...SNOW LEVELS LOWER
INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEYS WITH 700MB TEMPS AT -4C THERE.
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEKEND FOR THE EASTERN
UINTAS AND THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS FROM WYOMING DOWN INTO THE NW
SAN JUANS. TRAVEL THROUGH THESE MOUNTAINS COULD BE HAZARDOUS THIS
WEEKEND. COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH VALLEY FREEZES ARE POSSIBLE.
MONDAY WARM ADVECTION BEGINS AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
FLOW ALOFT QUICKLY SWITCHES BACK TO SW AND INCREASES INTO THE NEW
WEEK AS THE NEXT TROUGH WORKS INTO THE PACIFIC NW ON TUESDAY AND
THE GREAT BASIN ON WEDNESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED ZONAL JET FROM CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTRUDES INTO THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY BEGINNING THE CHANCE OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 445 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNSET WILL BECOME LIMITED
TO THE MOUNTAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND
ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER. TAF SITES KEGE KASE MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR
CIGS IN -TSRA UNTIL 03Z. SHOWERS BECOME MORE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE
AFT 06Z. AFT 09Z SCT -SHRA ISOLATED -TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER SW
COLORADO. TAF SITES KDRO KTEX MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CIGS IN -SHRA.
AFT 15Z SCT MAINLY MTN -TSRA EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50
CORRIDOR. TAF SITES KASE KEGE MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CIGS IN
-TSRA/-SHRA.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CC/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...JOE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
346 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2015
CURRENTLY...UPPER LOW PUSHING SLOWLY INTO WRN NEB THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE WEAKER SHORT WAVE ENERGY WAS DRIFTING NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM NM. WITH LACK OF MUCH BL/SURFACE WLY FLOW AND
MOIST GROUND...DEWPOINTS HAVE HELD IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND IN THE LOWER 50S FARTHER EAST NEAR THE KS
BORDER. MESO-ANALYSIS SUGGESTS MIXED LAYER CAPES OVER 1000 J/K
ACROSS THE PLAINS ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
SKIES HAVE CLEARED...WITH VALUES 500-1000 J/K FARTHER WEST OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS. STRONGEST STORMS SO FAR TODAY HAVE BEEN OVER
EL PASO COUNTY...THOUGH ADDITIONAL CELLS HAVE BEGUN DEVELOPING
SOUTHWARD ALONG AND WEST OF I-25 AS OF 2030Z.
TONIGHT...LATEST HRRR BRINGS CONVECTION OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS
THE PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS WEAK NM
SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH...WITH PERHAPS A LOOSELY ORGANIZED LINE
DEVELOPING 00Z-01Z AS STORMS REACH THE KS BORDER. SHEAR IS FAIRLY
WEAK...SO EXPECT MAINLY BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WITH CELLS
INTO THE EVENING. NAM/GFS END MOST CONVECTION THIS EVENING...WHILE
HRRR DEVELOPS SOME WEAK SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND EL
PASO COUNTY 06Z-07Z. WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF POPS DURING THE
EVENING...KEEPING SOME LOW CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...WITH A GRADUALLY SHIFT TO N-
NE WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF I-25 BY SUNRISE WED. MAY SEE SOME LOWER
CLOUDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY EARLY WED MORNING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
KS BORDER WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER.
THURSDAY...OLD UPPER TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WHILE NEW UPPER LOW TAKING SHAPE ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. AS A
RESULT...BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
AREA...WHILE SURFACE COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG THE NM
EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD TO SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE
THE ARKANSAS RIVER AND PALMER DIVIDE BY EVENING. BEST BET FOR STORMS
WILL BE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS AND
CAPES CLIMB TOWARD 1000 J/KG. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS FAIRLY LOW AS 0-
6KM SHEAR STAYS BELOW 40 KTS...THOUGH A COUPLE STRONG STORMS WITH
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE LIKELY. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION LOOKS POSSIBLE...THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE
FAIRLY LOW...LIMITING STORM INTENSITY. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL JUST
SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LITTLE CHANGE
ELSEWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2015
...ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY...
.FRIDAY...DISTURBANCE ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER NEVADA AND
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE
REGION. CONCEPTUALLY...THIS PATTERN CAN LEAD TO SEVERE CONVECTIVE
WEATHER ON THE PLAINS. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. NAM HAS MORE COLD AIR OVER THE
REGION...WITH THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINING STABLE. THE GFS HAS THE
UPSLOPE FURTHER NORTH...AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MIXING OUT OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. SUSPECT THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
REGION OF HIGHER CAPE NEAR THE FRONT OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.
CURRENTLY SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK HAS SEVERE CONVECTION STAYING EAST OF
COLORADO. THIS IS A GOOD CALL GIVEN THE CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT WHICH
TENDS TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE STABLE.
.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS COLORADO.
INTERESTING FORECAST FOR BOTH DAYS. ON SATURDAY...THERE WILL BE
NO SHORTAGE OF SHEAR AVAILABLE FOR SEVERE CONVECTIVE WEATHER. NAM
IS FURTHEST SOUTH OF THE UPPER LOW AND IT HAS THE MOST IMPRESSIVE
SHEAR. MAIN CHALLENGE WITH NAM SOLUTION WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A GENERALLY STABLE ATMOSPHERE.
GFS AND EC TEND TO BE FURTHER NORTH...AND ARE PREFERRED. THESE
SOLUTIONS WOULD TEND TO MIX OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER MUCH
OF THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. CURRENT THINKING
IS THE BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE IN
KIOWA AND EL PASO COUNTIES...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FURTHER
SOUTH SOLUTION. ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST...UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. EC AND GFS STILL HINT AT THE TROWAL MAKING INTO EL PASO
AND TELLER COUNTIES. IF THE TROWAL REACHES THIS FAR SOUTH...THEN A
PERIOD OF SNOW WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL OCCUR. LATER IN THE
DAY...THE GFS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT...THE EC HAVE A SECONDARY
DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. BOTH MODELS HAVE
NORTHEAST UPSLOPE DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A
PERIOD OF SNOW...AS SNOW LEVELS AS LOW AS 6000 FEET. GIVEN THIS IS
STILL ON DAY 4...DID NOT HIT THIS SOLUTION HARD IN THE GRIDS.
.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE
NORTHEAST...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY. EC
AND GFS HINT AT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. MODELS CURRENTLY SUGGEST THE BEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION...WITH CONVECTION NOT BEING
VERY STRONG. . --PGW--
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2015
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A VCTS MENTION AT ALL TAF SITES
INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA SHIFTING SOUTH FROM
KCOS TOWARD KPUB 22Z-01Z. TSRA WILL THEN SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE KS
BORDER 01Z-03Z THIS EVENING...THOUGH SOME -SHRA MAY LINGER OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY 03Z-07Z. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG AT KALS ONCE AGAIN AFTER 10Z THU MORNING...THOUGH WON`T
INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS POINT AS MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK MAY HINDER
FORMATION. ON THURSDAY...VFR IN THE MORNING WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
TSRA ONCE AGAIN WITH BEST CHANCE AT KCOS AFTER 18Z.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...PETERSEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
309 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2015
THE STRONG LOW THAT MOVED OVER THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE MOVING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT.
NW AND CENTRAL CO AND NE UT WILL BE BENEATH THE NW FLOW ALOFT
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE STORM...WHERE UNSTABLE AND MOIST
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. A FEW STORMS HAVE BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
OVER NORTHWEST CO AND NE UT WILL ALSO AS SOME SUPPORT FOR
CONVECTION UNTIL ABOUT 03Z THIS EVENING. SUBSIDENCE AND GRADUALLY
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO EASTER UT...AND NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL
CO AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVER SW CO...THE HRRR AND NAM12 SHOW ANOTHER
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT.
THURSDAY MORNING...IN SOUTH FLOW A WEAK WAVE WORKS THROUGH THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE DIMINISHING THERE
SO ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FORECASTED ACROSS THE SOUTH FAVORING
THE SAN JUANS. DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY
ALONG WITH SOME WEAK FRONTAL FORCING. MARGINAL AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAINLY OVER MTNS
NORTH OF I-70.
TONIGHT DRIER SW FLOW INVADES LIMITING NIGHTTIME SHOWERS TO NEAR
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.
THE NEXT STRONGER PACIFIC LOW SINKS THROUGH CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY
THEN BEGINS TO AMBLE INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2015
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THESE
PERIODS. ONE STRONG UPPER LOW WILL PASS ON SATURDAY BRINGING A
BLAST OF NORTHERN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. TWO OTHER TROUGHS CURRENTLY
ARE TIMED TO PASS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
FRIDAY THE UPPER LOW WITH A MODIFYING BUT IMPRESSIVE -26C COLD
CORE WORKS NORTH OF LAS VEGAS TO SOUTHCENTRAL UTAH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THE THERMAL RIDGE
BLOSSOMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND HAVE RAISED
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE WARMER NAM GUIDANCE. A 70KT JET NOSE
POKES INTO SE UTAH IN THE AFTERNOON AND RAKES THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
COOL ADVECTION ALOFT BEGINS TO DESTABILIZE BUT AVAILABLE MOISTURE
IS LIMITED AND MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
SATURDAY THE POTENTIAL VORTICITY CENTER RAKES THE NORTH AS THE
JET WRAPS UP THE FRONT RANGE. FRONTAL FORCING SEEN IN THE PARK
RANGE BY THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BUT WILL EXTEND INTO THE CENTRAL CO MTNS. SNOW
LEVELS DROP TO AROUND 8KFT...AND WILL BRIEFLY BE LOWER IN
STRONGER CONVECTION. THE LOW LIFTS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WRAP- AROUND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SHOWERS FAVORING THE NORTH. SUNDAY...SNOW LEVELS LOWER
INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEYS WITH 700MB TEMPS AT -4C THERE.
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEKEND FOR THE EASTERN
UINTAS AND THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS FROM WYOMING DOWN INTO THE NW
SAN JUANS. TRAVEL THROUGH THESE MOUNTAINS COULD BE HAZARDOUS THIS
WEEKEND. COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH VALLEY FREEZES ARE POSSIBLE.
MONDAY WARM ADVECTION BEGINS AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
FLOW ALOFT QUICKLY SWITCHES BACK TO SW AND INCREASES INTO THE NEW
WEEK AS THE NEXT TROUGH WORKS INTO THE PACIFIC NW ON TUESDAY AND
THE GREAT BASIN ON WEDNESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED ZONAL JET FROM CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTRUDES INTO THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY BEGINNING THE CHANCE OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1055 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP INTO EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO
BEHIND A SYSTEM RETREATING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS IS KEEPING
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS ALONG
WITH OBSCURATION OF MUCH OF THE RIDGELINES AND PEAKS. SUNSHINE
IN EASTERN UTAH HAS HELPED DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO
BEGIN TO PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WILL BECOME MORE
SCATTERED OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING IN PLACE OVER THE MOUNTAIN
FORECAST TERMINALS OF WESTERN COLORADO AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS VFR WILL DOMINATE...BUT MAY TEMPORARILY DROP DOWN TO
MVFR IF A HEAVIER SHOWER IS IN THE VCNTY. DRIER AIR INVADES
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER
VALLEY FOG MAY BECOME MORE OF A PROBLEM AND WILL BE MONITORING
THIS THREAT FOR FUTURE FORECAST ISSUANCES.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CC/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...TGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
330 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
.DISCUSSION...
...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE BRINGING ROUGH
SURF...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS...MINOR BEACH EROSION...AND
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS...
...LAND IMPACTS OF THE LOW WANE AS THE CENTER CONSOLIDATES AND MOVES
NORTH TOWARD THE CAROLINAS...
CURRENT-TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES OFF OF THE EAST FLORIDA
COAST THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE LOW LOCATED NORTH OF THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE SLOWLY NORTHWARD. SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY MOVING INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDER OCCURRING FROM NEAR LAKE GEORGE THROUGH THE I-4
CORRIDOR AND FURTHER SOUTHWARD. MOVEMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY IS PRETTY
MUCH NORTH TO SOUTH. FOR THE MOST PART WINDS AGAIN HAVE NOT BEEN AS
ADVERTISED OWING TO THE FACT STRONGER WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN ALLOWED TO
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE (LIMITED HEATING) WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION AROUND. AT ANY RATE OUR N/NNE DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT IS
FORECAST TO BACK TO THE NW THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW VENTURES FURTHER NORTH.
DEEP MOISTURE STILL FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT
AS DRIER AIR WRAPS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
WILL KEEP SOME LOW EVENING COASTAL SHOWER CHANCES THAT SHOULD END BY
MID/LATE EVENING ALTOGETHER...IF NOT SOONER. THIS THE RESULT OF
DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PENINSULA.
AT THE BEACHES ROUGH SURF...A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
(STRONGEST) FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND A LONG SHORE CURRENT
WITH MINOR BEACH EROSION EXPECTED. SKIES FORECAST TO THIN THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LOWS COOLER WITH L/M 60S AREAWIDE FORECAST.
THU...LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST FL COAST EARLY IN
THIS PERIOD WILL CONTINUE A SLOW N-NW MOVEMENT AWAY FROM ECFL. A
WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE ON THIS DAY WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BECOMING ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG
THE COAST. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE ENTIRE COVERAGE WARNING AREA DRY
FOR NOW...BUT FUTURE SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO MONITOR IF ENOUGH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SHOWERS NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE WITH ANY
ECSB/LAKE BREEZE CLASHES. A CRUNCHING OF THE NUMBERS FROM RECENT
MODEL RUNS SUGGEST AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL INTO
THE 30S/40S INLAND FROM THE COAST. AFTERNOON HIGHS MUCH WARMER THAN
THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS WITH L80S ALONG THE VOLUSIA/NORTH
BREVARD COASTS...M80S IN PLAY FURTHER SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST AND
U80S INTO THE INTERIOR.
THU NIGHT-SUN NIGHT...DECELERATING SFC LOW OFF THE SC COAST WILL
SLOW TO A CRAWL APPROACHING THE COAST AT/NEAR THE SC/NC BORDER AS
THE LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH BLOCKS ITS ESCAPE. WRN NOSE OF
THE ATLC RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD WWD INTO SOUTH FL BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFS AS TO WHETHER ANY SIGNIFICANT
RETROGRADE OF THE CENTER TWD THE W OR WSW WILL OCCUR...WHICH WOULD
HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON WHETHER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE CAN MAKE IT ALL
THE WAY BACK DOWN INTO NRN SECTIONS OF ECFL BY THIS WEEKEND. IMPACT
OF ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE MINOR IN ANY EVENT. HAVE A SMALL POP FOR
VOLUSIA/NRN BREVARD ON SAT OWING TO THIS POSSIBILITY...THEN A SMALL
CHC FOR DIURNAL SHRA/TS ALL AREAS SUN. MAX TEMPS RECOVER TO ABOVE
NORMAL WHILE MINS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL MINS THU-FRI NIGHTS MODIFY
OVER THE WEEKEND.
MON-WED (PREV)...THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER
THE FL STRAITS AND BUILD SLOWLY NWD AS THE CAROLINA LOW CREEPS UP
THE ERN SEABOARD. SRLY BREEZE WILL PREVAIL THRU THE H100-H70 LYR
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A FLOW THAT WILL TAP A CARIBBEAN AIRMASS THAT
IS ON THE DRY SIDE. LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS H100-H70 RH VALUES
LARGELY AOB 70PCT...WHICH WILL IMPEDE MOISTURE LOADING ACRS THE
GOMEX/W ATLC REGION. WILL BRING PRECIP BACK INTO THE FCST ON
SUN...BUT LIMITING POPS TO 20-30PCT RANGE THRU THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK. SRLY FLOW WILL GENERATE ABV AVG TEMPS...AFTN MAXES IN THE
M/U80S...MRNG MINS IN THE U60S/L70S.
&&
.AVIATION...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD TONIGHT. SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA ACTIVITY
WILL END OVER LAND THIS EVENING AS IT EVENTUALLY MOVES OFF INTO THE
WESTERN PENINSULA AND DISSIPATES WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE. HAVE KEPT A
SMALL POP THIS EVENING ALONG THE COAST BUT SUSPECT MOST PLACES WILL
REMAIN DRY HERE. CURRENT N/NNE WINDS WILL VEER TO NW OVERNIGHT.
GENERALLY VFR CIGS WITH MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS/ISOLD
TSRA. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA ON
THU. MAINLY NW WINDS WITH ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON
ALONG THE EAST COAST.
&&
.MARINE...CURRENT-TONIGHT...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE
BAHAMAS WILL CONTINUE A NORTH TRACK OVERNIGHT. CURRENT CONDITIONS
WARRANT BRINGING AN END TO THE SCA NEAR SHORE WITH NEXT CWA ISSUANCE
AT 4PM/20Z. WILL REPLACE WITH CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS THOUGH. OFFSHORE
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED 6-9 FT. SEAS 4-6 FT NEAR SHORE. N/NNE WINDS
WILL VEER TO NW THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS
WILL BE ON A DECREASING TREND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THU...THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE N/NNW AWAY FROM THE COASTAL
WATERS. WINDS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND...REMAINING NWRLY...EXCEPT
BECOMING ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST WITH SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED WITH SWELLS GENERATED
FROM THE NEARBY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SUSPECT AN SCA WILL STILL BE
NECESSARY OVER THE OPEN ATLC FOR THE SEAS WITH EXERCISE CAUTION
STILL NECESSARY NEAR SHORE.
THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...LIGHT TO GENTLE WRLY BREEZE TO START FRI. THE
WEAK SFC PGRAD WILL ALLOW SFC WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE E/SE BY AFTN AS
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DVLPS. AS THE STORM MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS...THE ATLC RIDGE WILL REBUILD WWD INTO THE FL
STRAITS/S FL PENINSULA AFT SUNSET...ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE
S/SW. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-3FT NEAR SHORE/4-5FT OFFSHORE WILL SUBSIDE
BY ABOUT A FOOT AS SWELL IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY DECAY...WITH A
MINIMAL WIND CHOP.
SAT-MON...ATLC RIDGE WILL BUILD SLOWLY NWD THRU THE WEEKEND AS THE
CAROLINA LOW CREEPS UP THE COAST. SRLY BREEZE WILL PREVAIL...
SHIFTING BTWN SW AND SE WITH THE FORMATION OF DIURNAL SEA BREEZES.
SEAS GENERALLY 2FT NEAR SHORE/3FT OFFSHORE...BUILDING BY A FOOT OR
SO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SRLY FLOW ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE ATLC STARTS
TO FRESHEN.
CAVEAT WITH THIS FCST WILL BE THAT SHOULD THE LOW DEEPEN AS A STC OR
SC MORE THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED...IT WOULD SEND SOME HIGHER SWELLS
DOWN AT US INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THU...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE RECENT LOW PRESSURE WITH AFTERNOON LOW MIN RH
VALUES FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE 30S OVER THE INTERIOR FROM OSCEOLA
COUNTY NORTHWARD. DISPERSION INDICES WILL BE GENERALLY GOOD IN THE
AFTERNOON. NW 20 FT WINDS IN UPWARDS OF AROUND 10 MPH...EXCEPT ALONG
THE COAST WHERE AN ONSHORE (NNE/NE) COMPONENT DEVELOPS IN THE
AFTERNOON. MUCH WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE U80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 63 82 64 84 / 20 0 10 10
MCO 66 87 64 87 / 10 0 10 10
MLB 65 83 64 86 / 20 0 10 10
VRB 65 85 64 87 / 20 0 10 10
LEE 65 87 64 86 / 10 0 10 10
SFB 65 89 63 87 / 10 0 10 10
ORL 67 86 66 87 / 10 0 10 10
FPR 62 85 62 89 / 20 0 10 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH
TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....CRISTALDI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1243 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
PERSISTENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHWARD THIS
MORNING...WITH 15Z/10AM SURFACE OBS SHOWING IT ALONG A MOLINE TO
KANKAKEE LINE. WINDS HAVE BECOME SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE ENTIRE KILX
CWA...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH. SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NOTED ON
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER KANSAS/OKLAHOMA WILL LIFT N/NE
TODAY...HOWEVER ANY CLOUDS/PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL REMAIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. FURTHER
EAST...MOSTLY SUNNY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. CURRENT FORECAST IS
RIGHT ON TRACK...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR MACOMB TO PARIS ACROSS CENTRAL IL
THIS MORNING AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY ARE RESULTING IN AREAS OF FOG...WITH OCCASIONAL DENSE
FOG OBSERVATIONS IN BLOOMINGTON...AND LASALLE AND PONTIAC TO THE
NORTH. 7Z HRRR MODEL IS DEPICTING WELL THE DENSE AREA AND HAVE
INCORPORATED PATCHY DENSE FOG IN GRIDS ACCORDING TO THIS. FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY AROUND 8 AM WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
FOR TODAY...A 500 MB RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED NW-SE ACROSS IL WILL SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD WHILE A SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EJECTS
NORTHEASTWARD JUST WEST OF ILLINOIS. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN SIDE OF ILLINOIS BUT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE CENTRAL IL FORECAST AREA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR CENTRAL IL INDICATE A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND
DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS WHICH SHOULD HELP TO PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH ENOUGH MOISTURE BELOW THE DRY SUBSIDENT LAYER
COULD BRING SCATTERED TO BROKEN SHALLOW CUMULUS. SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWARD WITH
WARM AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING HIGHS INTO THE MID OR UPPER 80S
ACROSS CENTRAL IL. SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHERLY 8-15 MPH
WITH GUSTS 12-20 MPH...THE STRONGER WINDS TOWARD THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE STATE.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
BRIEF DRY PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE
WARM TEMPS. STORM/WAVE OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL TRACK
NORTH/NORTHEAST BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOSTLY STAY TO THE WEST...BUT
SOME PRECIP CHANCES SNEAKING INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON THURSDAY,
WITH THE BEST CHANCES PUSHING INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND OVERNIGHT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BIGGER SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE DESERT
SW OVER THE NEXT 36 HRS OR SO AND WILL KEEP THE WESTERN US UNDER A
TROF, AMPLIFYING THE PATTERN AND SETTING UP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR
THE MIDWEST. MANY SHORTWAVES TRACKING AROUND THE TROF AND UP INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WORKWEEK. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS KEEP HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY THREAT IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS SLOWLY DRIVEN OUT OF THE REGION.
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE THE BEST
FOCUS AND THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY DIFFUSE WITH THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM WITH A PRETTY STUBBORN WARM
AIRMASS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SFC KEEPING WAA GOING EVEN WITH
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AT LEAST UNTIL THE TROF FINALLY
EXITS NE AND ALLOWS COOLER TEMPS BACK INTO THE REGION BY DAY7/DAY 8.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 10KT AND BACKING TO
SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY AS CU-FIELD
SEEN ON LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY EXPANDS NORTHWARD. CLOUD
BASES ARE AROUND 7000FT AS PER SURFACE OBS AND RAPID REFRESH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. MAY SEE AN OCCASIONAL BROKEN CEILING...BUT
CLOUD COVERAGE WILL GENERALLY BE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET...HOWEVER AN
AREA OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT-WAVE OVER THE
PLAINS WILL CROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS
THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. HAVE
INTRODUCED VFR CEILINGS OF AROUND 10000FT AT BOTH KPIA AND KSPI
AFTER 03Z ACCORDINGLY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE RULE BY
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS RESUMING.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...ONTON
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...BARNES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
136 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
SKIES WILL BE SUNNY FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE REGION. SKIES
WILL BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY FOR THE NORTHERN PART WHILE HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE
MIDDLE 80S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. A WEAK FRONT IN THE AREA WILL
GIVE THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
PREVIOUS FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE ON
UPDATE. MOVED TIMING OF SHOWERS UP A FEW HOURS AS WK LOW LEVEL
ISENT LIFT AND MOIST AIRMASS HAS ALREADY RESULTED IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER NWRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
SGFNT VSBY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG HAVE ENDED EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE AREA AND SHOULD BE IMPROVING THERE
SHORTLY AS DIURNAL HEATING CONTS SO HAVE ALLOWED DENSE FOG
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
SHORT TERM ISSUES DEAL WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING FOLLOWED
BY PCPN CHANCES LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED WELL SOUTH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA AND HAS BECOME
QUITE DIFFUSE OVERNIGHT. GOES FOG/LOW CLOUD PRODUCT SHOWING
EXTENSIVE SHIELD OF STRATUS NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND COVERING ALL
BUT EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA. 07Z SFC OBSERVATIONS
CONFIRM WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY UNDER 1KFT AND VISIBILITIES AT OR
BELOW 3SM. HIRES MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SHARP LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND
A FEW AMDAR SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS. SHALLOW STRATUS DECK SEEMS TO BE
KEEPING VISIBILITIES IN THE 1-3SM RANGE WITH ONLY A SLOW DROP SO
FAR. THERE ARE BREAKS WITHIN THE STRATUS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE IF/WHERE THESE CLOUD FREE AREAS PERSIST.
WITH WEAK FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER MIXING WILL BE SLOW TODAY AND
WILL NEED TO RELY MORE ON DIURNAL HEATING TO AID AND EVENTUALLY
ERODE CLOUD DECK FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THIS MAY TAKE SOME EXTRA TIME
AND DELAY CLEARING UNTIL LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE FAR
NORTH AS RUC13 LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS DO NOT MIX UNTIL CLOSER TO 18Z.
WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE SLOWED CLEARING AND KEPT NORTHERN AREAS
MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY AS RAPID
WARMING EXPECTED ONCE SKIES CLEAR. SOUTHERN AREAS STILL EXPECTED TO
PUSH MID 80S WHILE NORTHERN AREAS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER
70S NOW WITH DELAYED CLEARING. 00Z MOS GUIDANCE STRUGGLING AS WELL
WITH LARGE DISPARITY BETWEEN HIGHER RESOLUTION MET GUIDANCE BEING
MUCH COOLER THAN MAV OVER NORTHERN AREAS WHILE VERY CLOSE IN THE
SOUTH.
NEXT ISSUE DEALS WITH LOW CHANCES FOR ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
RATHER STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH RETREATING
CLOUD DECK AND DIFFUSE FRONT MIXING NORTH. NAM 4KM DEVELOPS JUST A
FEW ISOLATED CELLS LATE AFTERNOON. LOWER RESOLUTION VERSION DEVELOPS
VERY LITTLE. MOST OTHER GUIDANCE PACKAGES REMAIN SPLIT. MODEST CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1K J/KG EXPECTED BUT SHEAR PROFILES ARE
UNIMPRESSIVE GIVEN WEAK FLOW THROUGH COLUMN. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
REMAIN WARRANTED FOR ANY POP UP DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY AFTER ABOUT 20Z
AND SIMILAR TO TUE NIGHT COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED TSRA LAST THROUGH
ABOUT 03Z FAR NORTH.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE
START OF THE PERIOD...WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
PESKY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE AREA AND FALLING
APART (IF NOT ALREADY GONE). UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH WASHINGTON STATE WILL DEEPEN AND CUT OFF
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EAST TO THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL RIPPLES WILL EDGE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE REGION STARTING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A SURFACE FRONT DRIFTING SLOWLY SE INTO THE AREA.
THESE...COMBINED WITH A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SEVERAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE THE MAIN UPPER LOW FINALLY EJECTS AND LIFTS NE AWAY
FROM THE REGION. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS APPEARS TO BE
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LEAD WAVE AND MONDAY WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW. IN
TERMS OF TEMPS THE REST OF THE PERIOD MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR
INTO THE AREA THE FRONT GETS BEFORE STALLING OUT. LIKELY WILL END
UP A TIGHT GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE INTO THE WEEKEND UNTIL THE MAIN
SYSTEM PASSES. RAN WITH SUPERBLEND OF MODELS BEING THE BEST
COMPROMISE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH STOUT
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD. OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY BUT CHANCES MUCH TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN TAF. PATCHY
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING. SETUP IS NOT AS
FAVORABLE AS THIS MORNING WITH HIGHER TEMPS OVERNIGHT AND LOWER
DEWPOINTS. STILL...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST A
PERIOD OF IFR (OR LOWER) CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT KFWA GIVEN
LIGHT WINDS AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. CHANCES AT KSBN ARE
LOWER GIVEN SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS AND LESS FAVORABLE MOISTURE
PROFILES. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL MIX OUT QUICKLY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY TOMORROW.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...AGD
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1255 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST IS THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING: WHERE EXACTLY THE THREATS ARE MOST
SIGNIFICANT, WHAT THOSE THREATS WILL BE, AND JUST HOW THIS WILL ALL
UNFOLD.
OVERNIGHT WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW THE CENTER OF A
RATHER AMORPHOUS UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH AT LEAST A
COUPLE SMALLER EMBEDDED MESOSCALE VORTICES ROTATING ABOUT A COMMON
LARGER CENTER. THE SOUTHERNMOST OF THESE APPEARED TO BE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AS OF 0830 UTC AND CONTINUED TO LIFT SLOWLY
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. MID LEVEL DRYING WAS
OCCURRING TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THIS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
PRECIPITATION HAD PRETTY MUCH CLEARED THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION,
HAVING MOVED OFF INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. A SURFACE
LOW WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO AS A
DRYLINE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE SOUTHWESTERLY
MOMENTUM IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AND
TOWARD MIDDAY...WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE ADVANCEMENT OF WARM AIR
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MOIST AXIS. THE MOIST AXIS WILL RESIDE
ROUGHLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE AS A THERMAL RIDGE NOSES
TOWARD THE MOIST AXIS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...MOST PRONOUNCED NORTH
OF DODGE CITY UP TOWARD WAKEENEY. THIS WILL BE THE REGION MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO VIGOROUS SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AFTER
ABOUT 2000 UTC (3PM CDT). FOLLOWING THE NSSL VERSION OF THE WRF-
ARW...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BLOSSOM ALONG OR VERY NEAR THE HIGHWAY 283
CORRIDOR MAINLY NORTH OF DODGE CITY UP TO WAKEENEY...AND QUICKLY
BECOME SEVERE AS ONE OR TWO STORMS EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE
ADEQUATE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 35-40 KNOTS. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR LOOKS
REALLY GOOD WITH NEARLY 90 DEGREES OF TURNING THROUGH THE LAYER.
SURFACE-BASED CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG WILL ADVANCE NORTHWARD BY
LATE AFTERNOON, AND IN COMBINATION WITH ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
FOR ROTATING CONVECTION, VERY LARGE HAIL LOOKS LIKE A VERY GOOD BET
WITH UNINTERRUPTED SUPERCELLS, WITH MAXIMUM HAIL SIZE AROUND TENNIS
BALLS POSSIBLE.
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE CONVECTION WILL
EVOLVE TOWARD SUNSET. THERE IS GREAT CONCERN THAT IF A SUPERCELL CAN
THRIVE THROUGH SUNSET...OR IF A NEW SUPERCELL DEVELOPS FARTHER SOUTH
TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF UNINTERRUPTED INFLOW...THAT TORNADOES WILL
OCCUR. THE 0-1KM AGL NEAR SURFACE SHEAR WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
IN THE 00-03Z TIME FRAME THIS EVENING. STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IN
THIS LAYER IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2 ALONG WITH SBCAPE OF 2500 J/KG IS
A DANGEROUS COMBINATION, AND MOST CERTAINLY SUPPORTS DANGEROUS
TORNADOES GIVEN AN ESTABLISHED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM. THIS IS A
THREAT WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY, AND HOPEFULLY HOURLY
3KM HRRR MODEL TRENDS WILL HELP THE DAY SHIFT IN ASSESSING THIS
THREAT FURTHER. BY MID TO LATE EVENING, THIS THREAT WILL SHIFT EAST
TOWARD THE WFO ICT AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (EAST OF ELLIS, RUSH,
STAFFORD, PRATT, BARBER COUNTIES) AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE DOWN INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THEN EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND CENTRAL ROCKIES SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL
SPIN AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND
WESTERN KANSAS WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS. A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIODS THEN RETROGRADE
BACK WEST IN THE EVENING. THE AFOREMENTIONED DRYLINE AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE THE MAIN FOCAL POINT WHERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
FROM IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MODERATELY
UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIODS WITH AMPLE SHEAR IN THE LOW
TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ERGO, ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.
A FEW TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE CWA SATURDAY
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. ONCE AGAIN, A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND ISOLATED TORNADOES BEING THE
MAIN CONCERN. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG
WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS. THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH A DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS AT THE SURFACE.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS THURSDAY ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 80
DEGREES THEN RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 70 DEGREES SATURDAY WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER TO UPPER 50S
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY ARE
FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
WHERE THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TO
UPPER 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE COLD FRONT ISN`T
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM AROUND 40 DEGREES ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER
TO UPPER 40S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS MONDAY LOOK TO
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S THEN REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 70S TUESDAY.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN SOUTH
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT KHYS BETWEEN 20Z AND
01Z AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE AND MOVE EAST. IFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KDDC AFTER 08Z AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE EDGES WESTWARD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 81 59 81 58 / 10 10 50 60
GCK 83 53 80 55 / 10 10 40 40
EHA 82 51 80 52 / 10 10 30 30
LBL 82 54 82 57 / 10 10 40 50
HYS 75 58 78 54 / 50 50 40 70
P28 77 63 81 61 / 50 40 60 70
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
342 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...
DIURNAL CU THE RULE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. SCT SHRA CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE FL
PARISHES OF SE LA AND FAR SE MS AND WORK N INTO HWY 98 CORRIDOR
BEFORE DISSIPATING. TRENDS AND HRRR INDICATE THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO FESTER INTO FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR AREA
THIS EVENING...SO WILL KEEP A 20 POP FOR SHRA. OTHER PRIMARY WEATHER
ISSUE FOR TONIGHT IS DENSE FOG POTENTIAL. RELATIVELY SHALLOW LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COMING INTO SOUTHERN AREAS ON LIGHT SE FLOW BELOW DRY
MID LEVEL AIR COULD POTENTIALLY SET STAGE FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG.
LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS AREAS OF LESS THAN 1/4 MI VSBYS IN PINE BELT
REGION BY 09Z...AND LAMP/MAV GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS AS WELL. HAVE
INCLUDED MENTION OF DENSE FOG IN HWO AND HAVE FOG IN GRIDS AS WELL.
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THU IS POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA PRIMARILY IN
FAR WESTERN AREAS. MODELS SUGGEST SURGE OF MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING
AND COMBO OF WEAK UPPER WAVE AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
SOME SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE MOST
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF OUR AREA...HIGH RES
MODELS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY TO BUILD INTO AT LEAST FAR
WESTERN AREAS. HAVE CARRIED LOW POPS HERE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. REST OF AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE PRETTY MUCH A CARBON COPY OF THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG IN SOUTHEAST SECTIONS LATE THU
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME LIMITED CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL IN FAR WESTERN AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK LAPSE RATES AND
MINIMAL SHEAR SUGGEST ANY CONVECTION BOTH THU/FRI AFTERNOONS WILL
REMAIN GENERIC AND SUBSEVERE IN NATURE.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...WENT WITH BIAS CORRECTED RAW GUIDANCE NEXT
FEW DAYS GIVEN GENERALLY STAGNANT CONDITIONS THAT WILL PERSIST.
DIURNAL RANGES HAVE GENERALLY BEEN LARGER THAN GRASPED BY MOS
GUIDANCE OF LATE GIVEN LACK OF APPRECIABLE RAINFALL LAST 7 TO 10 DAYS
NECESSITATING LOWER MINS AND HIGHER MAXES THAN GUIDANCE. MINS IN
PARTICULAR SEEM TO BE OVERACHIEVING ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN MS WHERE
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN DRIEST AND SURFACE RIDGE HAS GREATEST INFLUENCE.
CUT BC GUIDANCE A FEW DEGS FOR MINS IN THIS AREA.
.LONG TERM...
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED
BY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. SIGNIFICANT TROUGH
OVER SOUTHWEST CONUS RESPOSNIBLE FOR A MULTIDAY PERIOD OF ACTIVE
CONVECTION OVER PLAINS AND MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY EJECT
NORTHEAST INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL ENABLE A FRONT TO SLOWLY SAG TOWARD
OUR AREA INTO MONDAY. WHILE BEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL PASS
WELL TO OUR NORTH...APPROACH OF FRONT AND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
UPPER JET SUPPORT SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
PARTICULARLY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. DECENT LAPSE RATES SHOULD
SUPPORT SEASONABLE INSTABILITY...AND PASSING TROUGH RESULTS IN MODEST
INCREASE IN SHEAR WITH 500 MB FLOW FORECAST BY ECMWF TO REACH 30-40
KT BY MONDAY. THIS SHOULD MEAN SOME INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WITH SOME RISK FOR STRONGER STORMS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT
BEST SUPPORT FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS TO OUR N AND W AND THAT
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON MESOSCALE DEVELOPMENTS
WILL LEAVE HWO CLEAR FOR NOW. POPS GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND TO REACH HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY MOST AREAS MON INTO MON NIGHT.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD LESS OF A PUSH WITH FRONT INTO TUE/WED...
RESULTING IN POPS LINGERING AND LESS OF A COOLING TREND. ACCEPTED
MODEL BLEND FOR THIS PERIOD...BUT IF THIS TREND PERSISTS IN LATER
OPERATIONAL/ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE MAY NEED TO TREND A BIT
WARMER/WETTER THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
MAIN FOCUS FOR TAFS IS POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG
AND SOME STRATUS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING. GREATEST RISK
PER HRRR/LAMP GUIDANCE FOR LIFR CONDITIONS IS IN KHBG AREA...BUT HAVE
CARRIED SOME IFR CONDITIONS AS FAR NORTH AS I-20 PRIMARILY DUE TO A
FEW HOURS OF STRATUS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY TO VFR ALL
SITES IN THE 13Z-15Z TIMEFRAME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 58 85 62 86 / 8 9 5 5
MERIDIAN 56 86 61 86 / 4 9 4 5
VICKSBURG 61 85 63 85 / 7 14 6 8
HATTIESBURG 60 87 64 87 / 17 9 5 5
NATCHEZ 62 84 64 85 / 18 14 8 11
GREENVILLE 62 85 63 87 / 5 9 7 14
GREENWOOD 60 86 61 86 / 3 9 5 9
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1142 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
LATEST FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST MORE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHWEST THIRD TO HALF OF NEW MEXICO THAN PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED DUE TO A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE AS WELL AS LINGERING
MOISTURE. MTS TO BE OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED IN SCT -SHRA/-TSRA
WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. SWLY WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH TSTMS AS WELL AS SFC LOW PRESSURE/LEE TROF.
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AFT 07/02Z IN GENERAL BUT INCREASING
INSTAB FROM THE KCVS AREA SWD MAY RESULT IN ISOLD CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...AND MAY BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO NOT AFFECT KROW. ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALSO RESULT IN LCL MVFR CIGS AFT 07/06Z ALONG
AND W OF THE CONTDVD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...1007 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015...
.UPDATE...
SENDING OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO TODAY PERIOD FORECAST TO INCREASE
POPS FOR SOME CENTRAL TO SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. LATEST FEW HRRR RUNS
AS WELL AS THE NEW 12Z NAM ARE DEPICTING QPF A BIT FARTHER SOUTH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ATMOSPHERE SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENTLY STEEP
TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO SPAWN A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND ALBUQUERQUE AND EVEN SOME POINTS FARTHER
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS
PERTURBATION ALOFT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...ON A TRAJECTORY THAT
WOULD GIVE ALBUQUERQUE AND POINTS FARTHER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
SUFFICIENT FORCING AND LIFT FOR SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT. FOR
THE MOST PART...STORMS SHOULD BE A GARDEN VARIETY...BUT SOME SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE.
52
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...318 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST THIRD OR SO OF NEW MEXICO. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE
AS SIGNIFICANT AS THE LAST TWO DAYS...BUT A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECT TO RETURN
AREAWIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM 5 TO 15 DEGREES OVER YESTERDAYS
READINGS...BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY.
EVEN DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT
WILL REMAIN BREEZY. A STORM SYSTEM PASSING NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
ON SATURDAY SHOULD BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO. A FEW
STORMS MAY PERSIST ON SUNDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN
AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MUCH QUIETER DAY IN STORE AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OR SO OF THE CWA. STILL SOME LINGERING MOISTURE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM AZ LATE
TODAY AND OVERNIGHT MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLD-SCT STORMS TO DEVELOP. NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING AS SIGNIFICANT AS THE LAST TWO DAYS...BUT SHOULD
PROVIDE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TO THE AREA. OTHERWISE...WITH LESS
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...TEMPS SHOULD WARM 5 TO 15 DEGREES OVER
YESTERDAYS READINGS. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO RETURN
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AS A 996 MB LOW DEVELOPS OVER SE CO.
OVERNIGHT...WE WILL BE WATCHING THE DRYLINE SLOSH BACK WESTWARD. GFS
IS THE MOST BULLISH AT BREAKING OUT A FEW STORMS ACROSS
CURRY/ROOSEVELT COUNTIES...SO HAVE KEPT SOME ISOLD POPS IN THE FCST
TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT.
MORE DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO NM ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM DIVING SOUTHWARD OVER CALI. WEAK DIFFLUENCE MAY ALLOW FOR A
STRAY SHOWER OR STORM TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS...BUT
OVERALL WILL BE A QUIET BUT BREEZY DAY.
MODELS STILL STRUGGLING A BIT WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THIS STORM SYSTEM
WILL GO. THE CENTER OF THE LOW AS PREDICTED BY THE GFS IS NOT QUITE
AS FAR SOUTH AS LAST NIGHT...BUT IT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
LATEST EC AND CANADIAN. BASED ON THESE MODELS...THE CENTER OF THE
LOW LOOKS TO TRACK OVER AZ...SKIRT THE 4 CORNERS...AND MOVE EAST
OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO. THE NAM THRU 84 HOURS SUGGESTS A TRACK THAT
IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH. WITH THE MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...THE
DRYLINE MAY NOT SLOSH AS FAR WESTWARD THURS AND FRI NIGHTS...AND
WILL QUICKLY MIX EASTWARD DURING THE DAYS WITH STRONG AND DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MIXING TO THE SURFACE. THUS...LIMITING THE TSTM
THREAT ACROSS THE FAR EAST. THE NAM SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR THE DRYLINE
PUSHING FURTHER WEST EACH NIGHT AND IT ALSO CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A
WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT ACROSS THE FAR NE MOVING IN THURS NIGHT...WHICH
MAY BE A FOCUS FOR T-STORM DEVELOPMENT EITHER THURS NIGHT OR FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE... BENEATH THE COLD CORE OF THE LOW/TROUGH...SHOULD SEE
SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS ON SATURDAY AS
THE LOW PASSES NEAR THE 4 CORNERS.
BEHIND THE LOW...A BAGGY TROUGH LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A BACK DOOR FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MAIN SYSTEM WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS. THUS...A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE NEARLY AREAWIDE. MONDAY WILL BE THE
TRANSITION DAY. WEAK RIDGING WILL TAKE SHAPE BY EARLY TUESDAY...AND
WINDS BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED BACK DOOR FRONT WILL VEER AROUND TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...PULLING IN SOME GULF MOISTURE. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT THE MOISTURE MAY MAKE IT WEST OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN. SHOULD THAT OCCUR...OROGRAPHICS WILL PLAY A PART IN MORE
STORMS OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. IF THE EC IS RIGHT...A SHARP TROUGH
WILL ALSO AID BRINGING UP MORE MOISTURE AND RESULTING IN MORE TSTMS
WEDNESDAY.
34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SMALL AREAS OF MARGINAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT THIS CURRENT WET PERIOD SHOULD
HELP MINIMIZE THE THREAT IN THOSE AREAS.
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST INTO CO AS A WEAK SHORT
WAVE RIDGE REPLACES THE LOW. THUS...DRIER CONDITIONS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP FOR TODAY WITH WETTING RAIN LIMITED TO THE
NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL CO...COMBINED WITH A RELATIVELY TIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT...WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS BY AFTERNOON FAVORING HIGHER TERRAIN
AND THE EASTERN PLAINS. HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES HIGHER THAN
TUESDAY WHILE MINIMUM RH VALUES DROP 20 TO 40 PERCENT. VENTILATION
WILL BE EXCELLENT IN ALL ZONES. RH RECOVERIES TONIGHT WILL BE
MOSTLY GOOD.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DIVE
TO THE SOUTH AND BE CENTERED NEAR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL INCREASE OVER NEW
MEXICO AS A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER JET STRENGTHENS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LOW. SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL USHER IN SOME DRIER AIR...BUT
SPEEDS WILL BE NOT AS STRONG AS THOSE TODAY. VENTILATION TO BE
MOSTLY EXCELLENT. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRIMARILY
FAVORED OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN. A STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ALONG THE TX BORDER OF CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES.
HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WHILE MIN RH VALUES WILL BE UP TO
15 PERCENT LOWER.
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH NEW MEXICO
WITH THE CENTER NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
ASSOCIATED JET WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...STRONGEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ON SATURDAY. CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS OF WIND AND RH COULD BE MET EACH DAY FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS...MAINLY IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND EAST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
ON FRIDAY...AND EASTERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE RECENT
WET CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD
MINIMIZE THE CRITICAL FIRE THREAT. ALSO...WHILE HIGH HAINES VALUES
ARE FORECAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEY DO NOT LINE UP WITH THE
EXPECTED LOCATIONS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS. VENTILATION WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY EXCELLENT. THE BEST CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN FAVOR WEST AND
NORTH ZONES ON SATURDAY.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN LOW CENTER TO OUR
NORTHEAST SUNDAY WILL KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN.
WARMING WILL BE LIMITED TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WHILE A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT ACTUALLY BRINGS SOME COOLING TO THE EAST SUNDAY.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN ITS WAKE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO INCREASE AT MOST LOCATIONS
ALTHOUGH STILL BELOW NORMAL. A FEW STORMS COULD CONTINUE OVER THE
NORTH ON MONDAY WHILE A DRY LINE MAY MOVE INTO THE EAST ON TUESDAY
WITH POTENTIAL STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.
CHJ
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1007 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015
.UPDATE...
SENDING OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO TODAY PERIOD FORECAST TO INCREASE
POPS FOR SOME CENTRAL TO SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. LATEST FEW HRRR RUNS
AS WELL AS THE NEW 12Z NAM ARE DEPICTING QPF A BIT FARTHER SOUTH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ATMOSPHERE SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENTLY STEEP
TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO SPAWN A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND ALBUQUERQUE AND EVEN SOME POINTS FARTHER
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS
PERTURBATION ALOFT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...ON A TRAJECTORY THAT
WOULD GIVE ALBUQUERQUE AND POINTS FARTHER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
SUFFICIENT FORCING AND LIFT FOR SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT. FOR
THE MOST PART...STORMS SHOULD BE A GARDEN VARIETY...BUT SOME SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE.
52
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...546 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME
LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING COULD RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. BEST
CHANCES GUP AND SAF. OVERALL LESS ACTIVE TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED -SHRA AND -TSRA IN THE NW THIRD OF NM...ESPECIALLY
FAVORING THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS...ALONG WITH BRIEF MT OBSCURATIONS. BREEZY
TO WINDY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BY MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN. GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KT AT LVS AND TCC. WINDS DIMINISH AND NEARLY ALL
PRECIP TO END DURING THE EVE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...318 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST THIRD OR SO OF NEW MEXICO. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE
AS SIGNIFICANT AS THE LAST TWO DAYS...BUT A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECT TO RETURN
AREAWIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM 5 TO 15 DEGREES OVER YESTERDAYS
READINGS...BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY.
EVEN DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT
WILL REMAIN BREEZY. A STORM SYSTEM PASSING NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
ON SATURDAY SHOULD BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO. A FEW
STORMS MAY PERSIST ON SUNDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN
AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MUCH QUIETER DAY IN STORE AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OR SO OF THE CWA. STILL SOME LINGERING MOISTURE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM AZ LATE
TODAY AND OVERNIGHT MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLD-SCT STORMS TO DEVELOP. NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING AS SIGNIFICANT AS THE LAST TWO DAYS...BUT SHOULD
PROVIDE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TO THE AREA. OTHERWISE...WITH LESS
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...TEMPS SHOULD WARM 5 TO 15 DEGREES OVER
YESTERDAYS READINGS. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO RETURN
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AS A 996 MB LOW DEVELOPS OVER SE CO.
OVERNIGHT...WE WILL BE WATCHING THE DRYLINE SLOSH BACK WESTWARD. GFS
IS THE MOST BULLISH AT BREAKING OUT A FEW STORMS ACROSS
CURRY/ROOSEVELT COUNTIES...SO HAVE KEPT SOME ISOLD POPS IN THE FCST
TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT.
MORE DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO NM ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM DIVING SOUTHWARD OVER CALI. WEAK DIFFLUENCE MAY ALLOW FOR A
STRAY SHOWER OR STORM TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS...BUT
OVERALL WILL BE A QUIET BUT BREEZY DAY.
MODELS STILL STRUGGLING A BIT WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THIS STORM SYSTEM
WILL GO. THE CENTER OF THE LOW AS PREDICTED BY THE GFS IS NOT QUITE
AS FAR SOUTH AS LAST NIGHT...BUT IT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
LATEST EC AND CANADIAN. BASED ON THESE MODELS...THE CENTER OF THE
LOW LOOKS TO TRACK OVER AZ...SKIRT THE 4 CORNERS...AND MOVE EAST
OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO. THE NAM THRU 84 HOURS SUGGESTS A TRACK THAT
IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH. WITH THE MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...THE
DRYLINE MAY NOT SLOSH AS FAR WESTWARD THURS AND FRI NIGHTS...AND
WILL QUICKLY MIX EASTWARD DURING THE DAYS WITH STRONG AND DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MIXING TO THE SURFACE. THUS...LIMITING THE TSTM
THREAT ACROSS THE FAR EAST. THE NAM SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR THE DRYLINE
PUSHING FURTHER WEST EACH NIGHT AND IT ALSO CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A
WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT ACROSS THE FAR NE MOVING IN THURS NIGHT...WHICH
MAY BE A FOCUS FOR T-STORM DEVELOPMENT EITHER THURS NIGHT OR FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE... BENEATH THE COLD CORE OF THE LOW/TROUGH...SHOULD SEE
SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS ON SATURDAY AS
THE LOW PASSES NEAR THE 4 CORNERS.
BEHIND THE LOW...A BAGGY TROUGH LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A BACK DOOR FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MAIN SYSTEM WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS. THUS...A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE NEARLY AREAWIDE. MONDAY WILL BE THE
TRANSITION DAY. WEAK RIDGING WILL TAKE SHAPE BY EARLY TUESDAY...AND
WINDS BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED BACK DOOR FRONT WILL VEER AROUND TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...PULLING IN SOME GULF MOISTURE. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT THE MOISTURE MAY MAKE IT WEST OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN. SHOULD THAT OCCUR...OROGRAPHICS WILL PLAY A PART IN MORE
STORMS OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. IF THE EC IS RIGHT...A SHARP TROUGH
WILL ALSO AID BRINGING UP MORE MOISTURE AND RESULTING IN MORE TSTMS
WEDNESDAY.
34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SMALL AREAS OF MARGINAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT THIS CURRENT WET PERIOD SHOULD
HELP MINIMIZE THE THREAT IN THOSE AREAS.
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST INTO CO AS A WEAK SHORT
WAVE RIDGE REPLACES THE LOW. THUS...DRIER CONDITIONS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP FOR TODAY WITH WETTING RAIN LIMITED TO THE
NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL CO...COMBINED WITH A RELATIVELY TIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT...WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS BY AFTERNOON FAVORING HIGHER TERRAIN
AND THE EASTERN PLAINS. HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES HIGHER THAN
TUESDAY WHILE MINIMUM RH VALUES DROP 20 TO 40 PERCENT. VENTILATION
WILL BE EXCELLENT IN ALL ZONES. RH RECOVERIES TONIGHT WILL BE
MOSTLY GOOD.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DIVE
TO THE SOUTH AND BE CENTERED NEAR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL INCREASE OVER NEW
MEXICO AS A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER JET STRENGTHENS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LOW. SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL USHER IN SOME DRIER AIR...BUT
SPEEDS WILL BE NOT AS STRONG AS THOSE TODAY. VENTILATION TO BE
MOSTLY EXCELLENT. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRIMARILY
FAVORED OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN. A STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ALONG THE TX BORDER OF CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES.
HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WHILE MIN RH VALUES WILL BE UP TO
15 PERCENT LOWER.
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH NEW MEXICO
WITH THE CENTER NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
ASSOCIATED JET WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...STRONGEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ON SATURDAY. CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS OF WIND AND RH COULD BE MET EACH DAY FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS...MAINLY IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND EAST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
ON FRIDAY...AND EASTERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE RECENT
WET CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD
MINIMIZE THE CRITICAL FIRE THREAT. ALSO...WHILE HIGH HAINES VALUES
ARE FORECAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEY DO NOT LINE UP WITH THE
EXPECTED LOCATIONS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS. VENTILATION WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY EXCELLENT. THE BEST CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN FAVOR WEST AND
NORTH ZONES ON SATURDAY.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN LOW CENTER TO OUR
NORTHEAST SUNDAY WILL KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN.
WARMING WILL BE LIMITED TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WHILE A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT ACTUALLY BRINGS SOME COOLING TO THE EAST SUNDAY.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN ITS WAKE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO INCREASE AT MOST LOCATIONS
ALTHOUGH STILL BELOW NORMAL. A FEW STORMS COULD CONTINUE OVER THE
NORTH ON MONDAY WHILE A DRY LINE MAY MOVE INTO THE EAST ON TUESDAY
WITH POTENTIAL STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.
CHJ
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
52
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
237 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH TODAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL MOVE ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE FRONT BRINGING SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE ACROSS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON
THURSDAY BRINGING WARM AND DRY WEATHER WITH IT. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES REGION TO THE UPPER
MOHAWK VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS EARLY THIS
MORNING...ONE MOVING ACRS SC NY AND NE PA AND ANOTHER ONE ACRS NE
OH TO NW PA. THE FIRST BATCH OF PRECIP OVER SC NY/NE PA WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT IN ADVANCE OF A SHRT WAVE THAT WAS
MOVING ACRS THE ERN LAKES INTO NY STATE. THIS FEATURE WAS
SUPPORTING A SWRLY LOW-LEVEL WIND MAX WHICH WAS RISING
ISENTROPICALLY ACRS SC NY/NE PA AND LEADING TO A MORE STRATIFORM
RAIN. THIS WAVE WILL CONT EAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND TAKE THIS
PRECIPITATION EAST OF SC NY SO HAVE POPS FOR SHRA WINDING DOWN BY
ARND 12Z OR SO IN SC NY. RADAR SHOWS THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP IN
NW OH AND NW PA HEADING JUST S OF E TWD NE PA AND SULLIVAN CO NY
PRIMARILY. BELIEVE THE RAP HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THE NEXT PRECIP SHIELD BASED ON CURRENT RADAR DATA WHEN LOOKING AT
THE OTHER HI RES MODEL REFLECTIVITIES. THE PRECIP WAS MORE
CONVECTIVE IN NATURE IN NE OH/NW PA AS IT WAS BEING SUPPORTED BY
ANTHR LOW- LEVEL WIND MAX TIED TO A SMALL SHRT WAVE AT MID- LEVELS
MAINLY. THERE WAS MORE LL THETA-E ADVTN IN THIS AREA THAT WAS
DESTABILIZING THE AMS ABV A SFC FRNT WHICH WAS ACRS SERN OH TO SW
PA. SO THE LL WIND MAX WAS ADVECTING MOISTURE ABV THE SFC FRNT
LEADING TO ELEVATED CONVECTIVE SHRA AND ISLD TSRA. THIS WIND MAX
MOVES E THIS MORNING AND THE MOISTURE ADVTN WEAKENS SOME BUT THERE
WILL BE INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT THRU 12Z OVER NE PA. SO WE
THINK THE PRECIP WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM-ISH IN NATURE AS IT
WORKS INTO NE PA AND SERN NY BTWN 12Z AND 15Z. BY 15Z...THERE WILL
BE ENUF MIXING IN THE BNDRY LAYER SOUTH OF THE PRECIP TO DISRUPT
THIS LL WIND MAX WHICH WILL IN EFFECT CUT OFF THE ISENTROPIC LIFT.
THUS WE EXPECT THIS PRECIP WILL WEAKEN AND FALL APART BY 15-18Z
THE LATEST.
THEN FOR THE AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE ENUF DRY AIR IN THE LL/S TO
PRECLUDE MUCH CUMULUS FORMATION FROM NC NY TO THE CATSKILLS.
FARTHER W...THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE LL MOISTURE SO I EXPECT
SCT-BKN CU AT THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER CLOUDS OVERHEAD. I DON/T
EXPECT ANY PRECIP AFTER 18Z OR SO IN NE PA/C NY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RDG AXIS WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN LAKES WITH A SFC RDG OVHD. SKIES WILL BE PC TO MO
CLR. ON THURSDAY 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO +12C WHICH TRANSLATES WITH
MIXING TO MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
FOR THURSDAY NGT...AGAIN FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED. FOR
FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATES SCT SHRA AND TSRA FORMING WITH CAPES
BTWN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG CAPES. THE NAM ALSO HAS CAPES ABV 1000
J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. BUT THE FORCING WILL BE MINIMAL AS THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE UPPER RDG AXIS. I COULD SEE AN ISLD SHRA
OR TSRA FORMING WITH LOCALLY MESOSCALE CRCLNS BUT THESE WILL BE
ISLD SO HAVE SLGHT CHC POPS...MAINLY OUR WRN CWA WHERE DEWPOINTS
AND CAPES WILL BE A BIT HIGHER.
FRIDAY NGT LOOKS FAIR AND DRY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
425 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO EXTENDED FORECAST JUST
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. AREA WILL REMAIN
UNDER A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES AND JUST LOW CHC POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS HUMIDITIES
INCREASE. NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. DRY AND
COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
2 PM UPDATE...
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...
FOR THE LONG RANGE, THE AREA WILL INITIALLY BE IN A WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS WITH A COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY BRINGING A RETURN TO
MUCH COOLER WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, SW FLOW CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OVER
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. ANY SCATTERED STORMS THAT FORM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH MORE SCATTERED STORMS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL NY. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE LOW 80S WITH DEW POINTS NUDGING INTO THE
MID 60S SO IT WILL BE FAIRLY HUMID.
HEADING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, THERE CONTINUES TO BE
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING HOW FAST THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE GFS CONTINUING TO FAVOR A
FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE EC. IN ANY EVENT, EXPECT MORE UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR MORE ORGANIZED AND
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS BY LATE MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES
DOWN INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT MAY WAVER OVER THE AREA INTO TUESDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CUTS NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
BUT EVENTUALLY CLEARS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN TO MUCH
COOLER CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOUDS STILL PERSISTING FOR KITH/KELM/KBGM/KAVP WILL DIMINISH
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT, THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES WILL RESULT IN A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
SOME MIST AND FOG AROUND KELM SO WE HAVE KEPT IFR VISBYS IN TAF
WITH THIS UPDATE. KBGM MAY ALSO SEEM SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IT IN TAF AT THIS POINT.
OTHERWISE NO RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
.OUTLOOK...
THU-SUN...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...MAINLY FOR CENTRAL NY TERMINALS.
MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...PCF/RRM
AVIATION...PCF/RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
133 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH TODAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL MOVE ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE FRONT BRINGING SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE ACROSS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON
THURSDAY BRINGING WARM AND DRY WEATHER WITH IT. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES REGION TO THE UPPER
MOHAWK VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS EARLY THIS
MORNING...ONE MOVING ACRS SC NY AND NE PA AND ANOTHER ONE ACRS NE
OH TO NW PA. THE FIRST BATCH OF PRECIP OVER SC NY/NE PA WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT IN ADVANCE OF A SHRT WAVE THAT WAS
MOVING ACRS THE ERN LAKES INTO NY STATE. THIS FEATURE WAS
SUPPORTING A SWRLY LOW-LEVEL WIND MAX WHICH WAS RISING
ISENTROPICALLY ACRS SC NY/NE PA AND LEADING TO A MORE STRATIFORM
RAIN. THIS WAVE WILL CONT EAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND TAKE THIS
PRECIPITATION EAST OF SC NY SO HAVE POPS FOR SHRA WINDING DOWN BY
ARND 12Z OR SO IN SC NY. RADAR SHOWS THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP IN
NW OH AND NW PA HEADING JUST S OF E TWD NE PA AND SULLIVAN CO NY
PRIMARILY. BELIEVE THE RAP HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THE NEXT PRECIP SHIELD BASED ON CURRENT RADAR DATA WHEN LOOKING AT
THE OTHER HI RES MODEL REFLECTIVITIES. THE PRECIP WAS MORE
CONVECTIVE IN NATURE IN NE OH/NW PA AS IT WAS BEING SUPPORTED BY
ANTHR LOW- LEVEL WIND MAX TIED TO A SMALL SHRT WAVE AT MID- LEVELS
MAINLY. THERE WAS MORE LL THETA-E ADVTN IN THIS AREA THAT WAS
DESTABILIZING THE AMS ABV A SFC FRNT WHICH WAS ACRS SERN OH TO SW
PA. SO THE LL WIND MAX WAS ADVECTING MOISTURE ABV THE SFC FRNT
LEADING TO ELEVATED CONVECTIVE SHRA AND ISLD TSRA. THIS WIND MAX
MOVES E THIS MORNING AND THE MOISTURE ADVTN WEAKENS SOME BUT THERE
WILL BE INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT THRU 12Z OVER NE PA. SO WE
THINK THE PRECIP WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM-ISH IN NATURE AS IT
WORKS INTO NE PA AND SERN NY BTWN 12Z AND 15Z. BY 15Z...THERE WILL
BE ENUF MIXING IN THE BNDRY LAYER SOUTH OF THE PRECIP TO DISRUPT
THIS LL WIND MAX WHICH WILL IN EFFECT CUT OFF THE ISENTROPIC LIFT.
THUS WE EXPECT THIS PRECIP WILL WEAKEN AND FALL APART BY 15-18Z
THE LATEST.
THEN FOR THE AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE ENUF DRY AIR IN THE LL/S TO
PRECLUDE MUCH CUMULUS FORMATION FROM NC NY TO THE CATSKILLS.
FARTHER W...THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE LL MOISTURE SO I EXPECT
SCT-BKN CU AT THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER CLOUDS OVERHEAD. I DON/T
EXPECT ANY PRECIP AFTER 18Z OR SO IN NE PA/C NY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RDG AXIS WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN LAKES WITH A SFC RDG OVHD. SKIES WILL BE PC TO MO
CLR. ON THURSDAY 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO +12C WHICH TRANSLATES WITH
MIXING TO MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
FOR THURSDAY NGT...AGAIN FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED. FOR
FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATES SCT SHRA AND TSRA FORMING WITH CAPES
BTWN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG CAPES. THE NAM ALSO HAS CAPES ABV 1000
J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. BUT THE FORCING WILL BE MINIMAL AS THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE UPPER RDG AXIS. I COULD SEE AN ISLD SHRA
OR TSRA FORMING WITH LOCALLY MESOSCALE CRCLNS BUT THESE WILL BE
ISLD SO HAVE SLGHT CHC POPS...MAINLY OUR WRN CWA WHERE DEWPOINTS
AND CAPES WILL BE A BIT HIGHER.
FRIDAY NGT LOOKS FAIR AND DRY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
425 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO EXTENDED FORECAST JUST
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. AREA WILL REMAIN
UNDER A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES AND JUST LOW CHC POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS HUMIDITIES
INCREASE. NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. DRY AND
COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
2 PM UPDATE...
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKED GOOD. WARM AND DRY MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND THEN BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
VERY WARM WITH HUMIDITY THIS WEEKEND UNDER A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE JUST OF THE CWA IN SE CANADA
WHICH STAYS THERE ALL OF THE LONG TERM. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS
WHERE THIS SETS UP AND STAYS. MODELS DIFFER ON THIS. WPC LEANS ON
EURO WHICH KEEPS THE BOUNDARY IN CANADA WHILE THE GFS DROPS IT
INTO PA SUN AND MON. HAVE FOLLOWED WPC AND HAVE CHC POPS FAR NORTH
SAT NGT THEN EVERYONE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOUDS STILL PERSISTING FOR KITH/KELM/KBGM/KAVP WILL DIMINISH
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT, THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES WILL RESULT IN A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
SOME MIST AND FOG AROUND KELM SO WE HAVE KEPT IFR VISBYS IN TAF
WITH THIS UPDATE. KBGM MAY ALSO SEEM SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IT IN TAF AT THIS POINT.
OTHERWISE NO RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
.OUTLOOK...
THU-SUN...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...MAINLY FOR CENTRAL NY TERMINALS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...PCF/RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1259 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
FIRST BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NOW ALONG THE MANITOBA/NORTH
DAKOTA. NEXT BATCH SE ND INTO NE ND. DRY SLOT BRIEFLY SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THIS BATCH OVER SW MN INTO NCNTRL IOWA WHERE SOME
CLEARING OCCURRING. SEEING A FEW STORMS FIRING IN THIS HEATED AERA
EAST OF SIOUX FALLS. ALSO FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE STORMS SOUTH OF
BISMARCK INTO CNTRL SD. IDEA IS FOR THE BATCH OF SHOWERS IN SE ND
WILL MOVE NORTH. A DRY SLOT OR BREAK MAY IMPACT SE ND/WCNTRL MN
FOR A TIME AFTER THIS MID AFTN AND THEN ENOUGH INSTABILITY ARRIVES
TONIGHT FOR ISOLD T AND A FEW SHOWERS TONIGHT. INSTABILITY IS
MOSTLY CONFINED TO CNTRL MN HOWEVER. OVERALL TREND IN GRIDS IS TO
KEEP A HIGH POP DUE TO FAST MOVEMENT OF THESE BANDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
TIMING AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL BE
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE PERIOD.
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS STILL DOWN OVER COLORADO AND WESTERN
KANSAS...BUT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY
MOVED INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH SOME 850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION. THIS WAA SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. THE RAP HAS DONE A DECENT JOB OF CAPTURING THE
LEADING BAND...AND IT HAS A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE
WAA BAND WHICH SEEMS TO FIT RADAR OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AT THE CURRENT
TIME. THINK THAT THE REALLY WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NEB/SD AND WE GET MORE WIDESPREAD UPPER
FORCING. CONTINUED THE TREND OF HOLDING OFF ON THE CATEGORICAL
POPS UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF ELEVATED CAPE
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OBSERVED...SO WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION FOR THIS MORNING AND THEN MATCH THUNDER
TO SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS WE GET SOME SFC BASED CAPE MOVING
INTO THE REGION. CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING A
HUGE AMOUNT TODAY...BUT GIVEN THAT WE ARE STILL IN THE 50S AND
EVEN 60S THE WARM START WILL HELP US REACH THE 70S AGAIN.
TONIGHT...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT INTO THE CWA...WEAKENING
AS IT MOVES THROUGH. EVEN WITH THE WEAKENING UPPER SYSTEM THERE
SHOULD STILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND
CONTINUED WITH HIGH POPS THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CANADA BY THURSDAY AND PHASE
WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE. THAT SHOULD HELP PUSH A COLD
FRONT INTO THE CWA FOR THURSDAY...AND THERE SHOULD BE CONTINUED
PRECIP WITH THE FRONT. THE NAM BRINGS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE BEHIND
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WHICH SETS OFF A LOT OF QPF ALONG THE
FRONT...BUT IS THE ODD MODEL OUT. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGH POPS
TRANSITIONING OVER TO THE EASTERN CWA AS PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY DROP IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CWA AS THE FRONT COMES DOWN.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS BRING THROUGH
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SO CONTINUED TO LINGER SHOWERS AT
LEAST OVER THE EASTERN CWA. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER AS THERE
SEEMS TO BE GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850MB TEMPS BELOW ZERO COMING
DOWN...ALTHOUGH FORTUNATELY AFTER THE PRECIP ENDS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. MOST OF FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY BUT COOL AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE USA. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER THAN THE
PAST WEEK AND HIGHS SHOULD ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 50S AND COULD DROP
BELOW FREEZING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SPLIT FLOW WAS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH
NORTHERN STREAM OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. LONG WAVE TROUGH/RIDGE OVER THE GULF
OF AK/WESTERN CANADA WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE WEST COAST/CENTRAL
PLAINS RESPECTIVELY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON MON, BUT SURFACE FEATURES WERE FARTHER NORTH AND SLOWER
ON THE ECMWF. WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM, THE PATTERN BECAME 180
DEGREES OUT OF PHASE FOR MON AND TUE. THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING
FASTER WHILE THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE
RUNS. WILL BLEND THE ECMWF AND GFS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
LARGE COLORADO LOW TYPE SYSTEM NOW ENVELOPING THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR SIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN... WITH SUCCESSIVE
WAVES OF HEAVIER RAIN AND ASSOCIATED IFR CIGS AND VSBYS. WIDESPREAD
DEEP CONVECTION WITH TSTMS IS NOT ANTICAPATED EXPECTED..THO AN
ISOLATED TSTM IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BAND EXPECTED LIFT THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN RRV LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY BLAYER FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY...BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...TURNING NORTHWESTERLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...GUST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1249 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
QUICK UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST TRENDS. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE MADE.
LATEST RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO FOLLOW CLOSELY WITH THE HIGH-RES
MODELS. A DRY SLOT IS FORMING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS AREA WILL LIKELY SEE A BREAK FROM THE RAIN FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS...AND EVEN
SOME THUNDERSTORMS...ARE LIKELY TO FORM AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 931 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE HEAVIEST RAIN BAND STRETCHES
FROM SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA (BOWMAN AND HETTINGER)...NORTH AND
EAST THROUGH BISMARCK AND JAMESTOWN. THIS BAND OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS INDICATE THIS BAND OF RAIN WILL PARK
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY...BRINGING
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO AREAS INCLUDING
CROSBY...WILLISTON...WATFORD CITY...NEW TOWN...KILLDEER AND
DICKINSON. FURTHER TO THE EAST...ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THE HIGH-RES MODELS INDICATE AFTERNOON HEATING WILL PRODUCE
SOME INSTABILITY...LEADING TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL
COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES FOR LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE
PUSHING INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
GENERATING PRECIPITATION UP ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER AND MOVING
NORTH WITH TIME. CURRENT FORECAST WITH LIKELY POPS TRANSITIONING
TO CATEGORICAL REMAINS ON TRACK...NO UPDATES TO CURRENT FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAINS ON INCOMING PRECIPITATION AND THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FIRST WAVE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVED INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
SHORTLY AROUND 07 UTC. THE HRRR DID A DECENT JOB OF TIMING THIS
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND HAS IT DIMINISHING AS IT
PROGRESSES NORTH. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH
THE LINE AND HAVE KEPT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT LINTON SHOWED HEAVY
RAIN WHILE A SHOWER WENT OVER AND REPORTED 0.20 INCHES. AT FIRST
GLANCE IT APPEARS THIS SYSTEM MAY WELL BRING THE MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL FORECASTED.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO WESTERN ND AROUND 18 UTC
WEDNESDAY AND INTO CENTRAL ND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
COINCIDE WITH 2-3 MORE EMBEDDED IMPULSES LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS BEFORE THE MAIN WAVE MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL SHOULD BE EXPERIENCED IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE...WITH STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS STILL DEPICTED FROM 0.5-1.5 INCHES. WITH BOTH THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF GENERATING 900-1200 J/KG OF MUCAPE OVER CENTRAL AND EAST
ALONG TO EAST OF THE FROPA...LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL (GREATER
THAN AN INCH) WITH CONVECTION WILL BE VERY POSSIBLE CONSIDERING
PWATS AROUND 1.25".
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
EXITING SYSTEM THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LEAVE BEHIND BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK FOR MAINLY SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY WANE THURSDAY/THURSDAY EVENING FROM
WEST TO EAST AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES THURSDAY
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND +1C FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 30S. AREAS OF FROST STILL APPEAR LIKELY DURING THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL
REACH INTO THE LOWER 60S TUESDAY. DRY BUT COOL FOR FRIDAY...THEN
THE NEXT CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL EJECT OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY. THE LATEST GFS KEEPS
THE PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND JUST ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF
ALSO FOLLOWS THIS IDEA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THEN PUSHES
THE PRECIPITATION BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THE SUPERBLEND ADVERTISES A ECMWF SOLUTION DURING
THIS PERIOD. IF THIS DOES COME TRUE...850MB TEMPS OF -2C MAY YIELD
SOME WET SNOW. ANY SHIFT FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED
MONITORING AS PRECIPITATION TYPES AND CHANCES WOULD CHANGE. DRIER
WEATHER SLATED FOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OF AND ON THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CONFIDENCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT ANY ONE INDIVIDUAL
TERMINAL IS MINIMAL. THEREFORE...ONLY MENTIONED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE VICINITY OF KBIS/KMOT/KJMS AS THOSE AREAS ARE THE MOST LIKELY
TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS NEARBY THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH KISN AROUND 21Z AND WILL
PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. BEHIND
THE FRONT...WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND
929 AM PDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING COOL AND
SHOWERY WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING DRIER AND
WARMER WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM MAY BRING COOLER AND SHOWERY WEATHER ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT UNCERTAINTY IN DETAILS REMAINS HIGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE PRIMARY FOCUS TODAY WILL BE
ON THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOSING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS WASHINGTON AND OREGON. A DISTINCT VORT MAX APPARENT
ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS IN THE PROCESS OF SWINGING ACROSS
THE CWA THIS MORNING. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON...WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH SO FAR. SUSPECT SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX WILL TEMPORARILY SQUASH CONVECTION
LATER THIS MORNING. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A SECOND WEAK VORT MAX
OVER NORTHWEST WASHINGTON...WHICH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST WILL SWING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND LIKELY
HELP CONVECTION ALONG. ALTHOUGH...THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THIS
SECOND VORT MAX DOES NOT APPEAR NEAR AS STRONG AS THE VORT MAX MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING. AS SOLAR INPUT INCREASES...EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER TO
BREAK UP WITH SOME SUNSHINE LIKELY LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
THIS SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZING QUICKLY
THOUGH. THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SUGGEST 300 TO 700 J/KG OF MU CAPE WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION THIS AFTERNOON. SOMEWHAT
SURPRISINGLY...BOTH MODELS SEEM TO BE HANDLING SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE SHORT TERM WELL SO THE AFOREMENTIONED CAPE VALUES SEEM
REASONABLE. WHILE THE FORECAST CAPE IS STILL RELATIVELY SKINNY WHEN
EXAMINING MODEL SOUNDINGS...IT IS A BIT FATTER AT -20C THAN WE
TYPICALLY SEE HERE IN THE SPRING...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO PRODUCE HAIL UP TO 1/2 INCH IN DIAMETER TODAY.
THERE IS ALSO A BIT MORE 0-6KM SHEAR FORECAST LATER
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND COAST RANGE...THAN
WE TYPICALLY SEE UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE SPRINGTIME. THIS
MAY ALSO HELP ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TO PERSIST AND TRACK A
BIT LONGER THAN NORMAL WHEN COMPARED TO OUR TYPICAL SPRINGTIME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM SCENARIO.
NAM CAPE VALUES HIGHLIGHT THE EAST SLOPES OF THE COAST RANGE AND THE
CASCADES AS THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO RECEIVE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SSEO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE PAINTS A SIMILAR PICTURE AS
WELL. MEANWHILE...THE SREF 3 HR PROBABILITY OF THUNDER IS HIGHEST
OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE VALLEY...WITH A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN THAT 3
HOUR PERIOD. THIS IS ABOUT AS HIGH AS WE CAN RECALL SEEING FROM THE
SREF THUNDERSTORM GUIDANCE. AS A RESULT...BUMPED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FROM SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE WORDING FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
ALL THIS SAID...THE LATEST HRRR DOES NOT APPEAR ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
FOR LATER TODAY SO THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND PROGRESS LATER TODAY.
EXPECT ANY LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING TO WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. /NEUMAN
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR DRY AND WARM WEATHER. INLAND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL KEEP COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
60S. SUNDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA MONDAY
CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS. THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL RESULT
IN COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 40S. TJ
&&
.AVIATION...COOL...SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN A MIX OF
FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT INCREASED SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z TODAY FOR
INLAND TAF SITES...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS AND VSBY
UNDER HEAVER SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS DISSIPATE BY
10Z THU...WITH DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MOSTLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWER
ACTIVITY INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z TODAY. SHOWERS END BETWEEN 08Z-10Z THU. /27
&&
.MARINE...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT AN OCCASIONAL SHOWER THIS MORNING...WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...WINDS
WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRES
LOOKS TO REBUILD OVER THE NE PAC ON THU...WITH THERMAL LOW PRES
BUILDING OVER THE S OREGON COAST. EXPECT A GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OF TILLAMOOK. A WEAK SYSTEM LOOKS TO
APPROACH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT IMPACTS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL.
SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 TO 8 FT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...PERIODS OF STEEP AND CHOPPY SEAS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND WITH THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM
PDT THIS MORNING.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
445 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...
AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES EAST OF FLORIDA. THE LOW MAY DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL FEATURE BY THIS WEEKEND...AS IT
DRIFTS NORTH TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THERE IS STILL PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE SYSTEM REMAINS OFFSHORE OR
MOVES INLAND OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND.
THE LOW WILL EVENTUALLY DRIFT EAST OF THE AREA...AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
430 PM UPDATE...THE FCST IS ON TRACK. MADE SLIGHT TWEAKS TO
POP/SKY PER SATELLITE AND RADAR OBS...AND LATEST AVBL HRRR WHICH HAS
BACKED OFF ITS EXPECTATIONS FOR CONVECTION NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE.
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUBBLE NEAR THE TENN BORDER THRU
SUNSET.
AS OF 200 PM...NO BIG CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE SOUTHWEST FROM THE MID-ATALNTIC
REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...THE SUBTROPICAL LOW
OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD WITH THE BIGGEST
AFFECT FOR OUR AREA PATCHY HIGH CLOUDINESS. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL
REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS FROM 55 TO 60 OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS AND 50-55
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. SOME FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY IN THE LITTLE TN VALLEY WHERE FOG IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE.
ON THURSDAY...THE SUBTROPICAL LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT
NORTHWARD TO OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY. MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE NON-MOUNTAIN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS THEY WILL
BE IN AN AREA OF GENERAL SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING
IN FROM THE NE. HOWEVER...THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE SOME SCT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION THANKS TO LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND A SPOKE OF
VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH
CAPES INCREASING TO 500-1000J/KG. HENCE...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SCT
POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN
TODAY DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER...BUT STILL ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM
WILL BE HOW MUCH IMPACT THE TROPICAL (OR SUBTROPICAL LOW) WILL HAVE
ON OUR WX ACRS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AS IT APPROACHES THE SC COAST.
THE MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT ON THEIR DEPICTION OF
THE FEATURE...GRADUALLY ORGANIZING IT INTO A CLOSED SFC LOW BY
THURSDAY EVENING...WITH OUTER BANDS OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO START
AFFECTING THE NC/SC COASTS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
IS FOR THE LOW TO MEANDER NEAR THE SC COAST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...KEEPING OUR AREA IN THE SUBSIDENCE BAND ON THE NW SIDE OF
THE CIRCULATION. GUIDANCE DOES ALLOW FOR SOME INSTBY AND MTN-TOP
CONVECTION BOTH DAYS...WITH THE I-77 CORRIDOR POSSIBLY BEING
AFFECTED BY SOME RAIN BANDS. THE BLUE RIDGE...UPSTATE AND NE GA LOOK
TO BE IN THE MINIMUM OF POP BOTH DAYS. TEMPS WILL BE 2-3 CATEGORIES
ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE STARTS AT 00Z
SUNDAY...WITH THE TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL LOW SOMEWHERE INVOF THE
SC/NC COAST. THE MODELS STILL DIVERGE ON WHERE THE LOW IS STEERED.
THE LATEST WPC PREFERENCE IS CLOSE TO THE 00Z ECMWF...WHICH HAS THE
LOW DRIFT NORTH INTO ERN NC ON SUNDAY...THEN TURN SLIGHTLY NE OFF
THE VA CAPES. THE GFS IS A SLOW AND WESTERN OUTLIER...HAVING THE LOW
DRIFT SW ON SUNDAY TOWARD SAVANNAH...THEN NE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN
ON MONDAY. IF THE GFS VERIFIES...WE WOULD PROBABLY SEE MORE ENHANCED
AFTN/EVE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CONSENSUS/WPC TRACK...THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL LIKELY STAY ON THE SUBSIDENCE/BACK SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM...WITH MAINLY JUST SOME MTN CONVECTION AND ISOLD PIEDMONT
ACTIVITY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. I WILL UNDERCUT THE SUPERBLEND POPS BOTH
DAYS ABOUT 10-20 PCT...KEEPING CHC POP IN NC...AND SLGT CHC POP
SOUTH. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...ABOUT 7-10 DEG.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE PERSISTENT WESTERN CONUS TROF WILL EJECT
INTO THE PLAINS...AND LIFT NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE FLOW WILL
FLATTEN THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS RIDGE...BUT NOT COMPLETELY.
STILL...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER WAVE PUSHING THRU THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE GFS HAS IT THRU BY
EARLY MORNING...WHILE THE ECMWF PUSHES IT ACRS TUESDAY EVENING.
AGAIN...THE WPC PREFERENCE IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE EC...SO WILL
CONTINUE THE CHC POPS FOR SHWRS AND TSTMS...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
TUESDAY. THEN DRY WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN WINDS THIS
AFTN/EVENING UNDER VERY WEAK FORCING. OVERALL PATTERN SUGGESTS ESE
WINDS WILL BACK TO NE TONIGHT AS A SUBTROPICAL LOW MOVES NORTHWARD
OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW.
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH GENERALLY
JUST PATCHY CIRRUS...JOINED BY A FEW RATHER HIGH BASED CU FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTN.
ELSEHWERE...GENERALLY VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THURSDAY WHERE FOG MAY REDUCE VSBY/S AT KAVL
AND KHKY TO MVFR.
OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS EXCEPT FOR PATCHY
MORNING FOG. OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
PERSISTS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL PRODUCE LOCAL RESTRICTIONS. LOW
CLOUDS AND OR FOG RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
20-02Z 02-08Z 08-14Z 14-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 91% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 83% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...LG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...LG/WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
117 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...
AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS TO WHETHER OR NOT IT
REMAINS OFFSHORE OR MOVES INLAND OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF THE
CAROLINAS. THE LOW WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY AND MAY NOT DEPART TO THE
EAST UNTIL MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM...BUMPED MAX TEMPS UPWARD A COUPLE DEGREES BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS. LOW POPS STILL LOOK GOOD ALONG THE TN/NC BORDER
WHERE BEST INSTABILITY EXISTS.
AS OF 945 AM...GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING TEMPS TO
SPIKE UPWARD QUICKLY... ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS.
THEREFORE...ADJUSTED TEMP TRENDS. LATEST HRRR NOT EXCITED AT ALL
ABOUT CONVECTIVE CHANCES IN THE MOUTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL CAP
LOOKS TOO STRONG TO OVERCOME EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN
ALONG THE TN BORDER. BLENDED IN LATEST CONSHORT INTO POP GRID WHICH
TAMPED POPS DOWN TO AREAS OF ABOUT 20% ALONG THE TN BORDER IN
WESTERN NC.
AS OF 810 AM...DID A QUICK UPDATE MAINLY TO CAPTURE LATEST HOURLY
TEMP TREND. OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK.
AS OF 620 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...CALM WINDS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA. ALTHOUGH THINNING
SOMEWHAT...STILL SEEING SOME PATCHY HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS ACROSS THE
EASTERN MOST ZONES PER IR SAT. AS PREVIOUSLY FCST...VISB
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO PATCHY DENSE FOG ARE EVIDENT IN AND AROUND THE
LITTLE TN RIVER VALLEY...WITH IMPROVEMENT FCST AFTER SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES NEEDED/MADE TO THE FCST WITH THIS UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN THIS MORNING CONSISTS
OF AN UPPER TROF ATOP THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES SLIDING THROUGH THE TROF BASE OVER THE OK/TX PANHANDLE
REGION. FURTHER EAST...SHARP UPPER RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
SLIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WHILE A CLOSED LOW
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OFF THE SOUTH FLORIDA COASTLINE. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
ELONGATE/ERODE AS A SURFACE DISTURBANCE BENEATH THE ABOVE MENTIONED
FLORIDA COASTAL H5 LOW SLIDES NORTHWARD. IN RESPONSE...PRIMARY
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FETCH THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER NORTHEAST GA
AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL GIVE WAY TO BACKED SURFACE FLOW.
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING IN ALOFT WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THUS PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE FEATURED IN THE FCST. AS FOR POPS...MODEL OUTPUT IS
RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE WILL LITTLE INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR
CONVECTION...THUS ONLY ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHRA AND OR TSRA IS
MENTIONED ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. THEREFORE NORTHEAST GA ALONG
WITH THE NC/SC PIEDMONT REGIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE LOWER 80S. ALL POPS WILL FALL OFF THIS EVENING AS
HEATING IS LOST...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LOWS ON THURSDAY MORNING WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO AS NOCTURNAL SKY COVER LIMITS
RADIATIONAL COOLING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...THE OBVIOUS CONCERN WITH THE LATER PART OF
THE WEEK CONTINUES TO BE THE FATE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS EXPECTED
TO HAVE DEVELOPED/ORGANIZED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THURSDAY
MORNING. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN THE FCST TRACK OF THE LOW WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT ON
THE PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE ERN ZONES. THE FCST GENERALLY LEANS
TOWARD THE ECMWF WITH ITS KEEPING THE LOW CENTER OVER THE GULF
STREAM A BIT LONGER...AND AWAY FROM THE GFS WHICH MOVES THE LOW THE
FARTHEST WEST...BECAUSE OF A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE STEERING FLOW
THAT WOULD RESULT IN THAT WESTWARD JOG. THE FARTHER EAST THE LOW
TRACKS...THE MORE LIKELY THAT THE WESTERN CAROLINAS/NE GEORGIA WILL
REMAIN UNDER SOME SORT OF WEAK SUBSIDENCE...OR AT LEAST AN AREA OF
RELATIVELY DRY AIR...AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. FOR THAT
REASON...AM NOT PARTICULARLY EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES THRU THE
PERIOD...AND ESPECIALLY NOT THURSDAY WHEN THE LOW IS STILL WELL
OFFSHORE. THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIP ON THURSDAY
WILL BE ON THE TN BORDER WHERE WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE
BEST. ON FRIDAY...THERE IS THE CHANCE THAT SOME PRECIP COULD DRIFT
IN FROM THE EAST DURING THE DAY...SO THE PRECIP CHANCES RAMP UP
THERE...AND ARE KEPT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE USUAL
DIURNAL WEAKENING CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE MTNS. TEMPS SHOULD BE A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS OVER THE EASTERN-MOST
ZONES WHERE PRECIP/CLOUDS COULD MOVE IN FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...WE FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW PRESSURE
OF SOMEWHAT TROPICAL NATURE EITHER OFF THE CAROLINA COAST OR OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION ULTIMATELY HAS
THE BEST HANDLE ON IT. ALL THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY N BUT BE LEFT ADRIFT FOR THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW
OFFSHORE THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD AND THAT SOLUTION WAS GENERALLY
FAVORED WITH THE THINKING THAT THE LOW MIGHT STAY CLOSER TO THE GULF
STREAM WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE BETTER. THAT WOULD KEEP THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS/NE GEORGIA IN THE UNFAVORABLE AREA WELL W/NW OF THE LOW
WHERE WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR GETTING ENTRAINED FROM THE N WOULD
KEEP A LID ON CONVECTION. WILL NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE FCST
BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY...BUT WILL TAKE THIS
OPPORTUNITY TO IMPROVE SOME INCONSISTENCY WITH NEIGHBORING FCST
OFFICES IN TERMS OF PRECIP CHANCES. IT LOOKS LIKE THE LOW WILL
FINALLY DRIFT AWAY TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. THEREAFTER...WE LOOK TO A
SURFACE FRONT COMING IN FROM THE WEST AS THE UPPER PATTERN FINALLY
STARTS MOVING AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH GENERALLY JUST PATCHY HIGH CLOUDINESS. LIGHT GENERALLY
EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD BACK TO THE NE OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE ON
THURSDAY AS A SUBTROPICAL LOW MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA.
ELSEHWERE...GENERALLY VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THURSDAY WHERE FOG MAY REDUCE VSBY`S AT KAVL
AND KHKY TO MVFR.
OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS EXCEPT FOR PATCHY
MORNING FOG. OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
PERSISTS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL PRODUCE LOCAL RESTRICTIONS. LOW
CLOUDS AND OR FOG RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
17-23Z 23-05Z 05-11Z 11-12Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...LG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1232 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
40
&&
.AVIATION...
STREAMER SHOWERS WERE ALREADY CONTAINING ISOLATED THUNDER AT
1730Z. THE LATEST HRRR WAS VERIYING NICELY. TAKING A COMBINATION
OF THE HRRR...RAP13...AND NAM12 GIVES A CONSENSUS OF THUNDER
CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST 23Z AND POSSIBLY THROUGH 02Z.
FOR TONIGHT...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH
THOUGHT THAT THE GUDANCE WAS OVERDOING HOW LOW AND HOW EARLY THE
ONSET OF THESE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. MOST LOCATION MAY NOT SEE
MVFR UNTIL AFTER 09Z. RAW MODEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY PLOTS FORECAST
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AFTER MID MORNING ON THURSDAY.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1056 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015/
DISCUSSION...
RETRANSMITTED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015/
PESKY CELL THAT HAS GENERATED A GOOD AMOUNT OF RAIN ACROSS NW
PARTS OF SE TX HAS SAGGED INTO WALLER CO NEAR HEMPSTEAD. IT`S
STILL PRODUCING 2-3"/HOUR RAINFALL RATES BUT (AT LEAST SHORT TERM)
INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT MIGHT BE WEAKENING. STILL SEEING STREAMERS
FEED INTO THE AREA SO STILL MIGHT BE A PLAYER FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.
FORECAST-WISE UPDATED GRIDS TO MATCH OBS AND ALSO MADE A FEW MORE
TWEAKS...MAINLY TO BUMP AFTN POPS UP JUST A LITTLE. CONCERNED LINGERING
BOUNDARIES FROM THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY ALONG WITH 1.5-1.6" PWS,
CAPES 2000-3000 J/KG, -7 LI`S AND ANY WARMING UP TO THE LOW-MID
80S MIGHT TRIGGER SOME ADDITIONAL SCT DEVELOPMENT. FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG CELLS AND FROM WHAT WE SAW
THIS MORNING...SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS. NOT ALL THAT
CONFIDENT IN THE OVERALL SHORT TERM FCST AS NONE OF THE MODELS
(INCLUDING HI RES) HAVE DONE PARTICULARLY WELL LAST NIGHT OR
THIS MORNING. BUT THAT`S NOT UNCOMMON THIS TIME OF YEAR HERE... 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 84 71 85 71 85 / 40 20 30 20 30
HOUSTON (IAH) 83 72 86 72 86 / 40 10 20 10 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 81 74 81 75 82 / 20 10 20 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...
MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION/MARINE...40