Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/30/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
225 PM MST TUE APR 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A WARMING TREND...WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS EACH DAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. A WEAK PACIFIC STORM MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
MOST OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...ACTIVITY ON THE RIM STARTED LATE THIS MORNING AND HAS
SLOWLY BE DRIFTING TO THE S-SW WITH THESE STORMS DISSIPATING BEFORE
GETTING TO A SAN CARLOS TO CLIFTON LINE. LATEST HRRR RUNS STILL
HINTING AT SOME WEAK STORMS GETTING AS FAR SOUTH AS A BYLAS TO
CLIFTON LINE THIS EVENING SO HAVE LEANED THE FORECAST IN THAT
DIRECTION. MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS IS GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40
MPH.
AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK DAYTIME HIGHS WILL HEAT UP WITH THE WARMEST HIGHS OF 2015 SO
FAR ON TAP FOR EITHER THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY. ENOUGH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING STORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON SATURDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASING
THIS WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER SYSTEM. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDER...TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY INTO
NEXT TUESDAY AT THIS TIME. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALSO SHOW A COOLING
TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/18Z. N OF A KSAD-CLFT LINE...TIL 29/03Z
SCT-BKN 10-12K FT AGL WITH WDLY SCTD -SHRA/TS GUSTS TO 35 KTS. AFT
29/03Z CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY DECREASING. ELSEWHERE...SKC-FEW 08-
10KFT AGL. SFC WINDS ELY 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS DECREASING
THIS EVENING TO 7-12 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A BYLAS TO CLIFTON LINE INTO THIS EVENING.
ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING STORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH FRIDAY. GUSTY
EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING BUT WILL PICK UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS TODAY. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB EACH DAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS PEAKING ABOUT
10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DEW POINTS
STEADILY DROPPING SEVERAL DEGREES EACH DAY. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE NEXT WEEKEND WITH A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.CLIMATE...MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE FORECAST THIS WEEK
WITH TUCSON HAVING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SEEING THE FIRST 95 DEGREE HIGH
OF 2015 ON EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE 1ST 95
DEGREE DATE FOR TUCSON IS MAY 2ND, BUT SINCE 2000 THE AVERAGE DATE
HAS BEEN APRIL 22ND. A FEW SPOTS IN FAR WRN PIMA COUNTY WILL BE NEAR
RECORD HIGHS...ESPECIALLY ORGAN PIPE CACTUS NATIONAL MONUMENT.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
1012 AM MST TUE APR 28 2015
.UPDATE...
JUST A MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO PRECIP CHANCES FOR SRN GILA COUNTY EAST OF
GLOBE...PRIMARILY TO KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. WEAK VORT MAX CURRENTLY ROTATING SOUTH ALONG THE AZ/NM
BORDER PER WV SAT IMAGERY. VIS SAT PICS SHOW FIELD OF STRATO-CU
MOVING ALONG WITH IT AND A FEW SHOWERS KICKING OFF THE WHITE MTNS.
THE 28.09Z SREF INDICATES SOME MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THIS
AFTN/EVE BUT NOT MUCH...LOW PROB OF ABOVE 250 J/KG. WHILE THE 28.12Z
FGZ SOUNDING HAD A SUBSTANTIAL STABLE/SUBSIDENCE LAYER...THE ABQ
SOUNDING WAS NOTABLE MORE MOIST THROUGH THE COLUMN AND PWAT VALUES
WERE JUST A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF TYPICAL PER SPC SOUNDING CLIMO
PAGE. SPC HRRR BROWSER DEPICTS THE PAST SIX RUNS DEVELOPING SHOWERS
ALONG THE EAST RIM TO THE WHITE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...REALLY SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE WITH
THAT THUS I/VE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.
OTHERWISE EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE MORNING THEN
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THOSE WINDS ARE PROMOTING A
MUCH WARMER MORNING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WITH MOST AREAS 5-15F
WARMER. WARMING SHOULD LEVEL OFF THOUGH YIELDING MAX TEMPS ABOUT 3-7F
WARMER THAN MONDAY.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
OUR EAST WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER EASTERN ARIZONA
TODAY. DRY WEATHER WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL RAPIDLY
TAKE PLACE THIS WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS
APPROACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK DURING THE LATTER PARK OF THE WEEK.
FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...THE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL.
&&
.DISCUSSION..
THE VERY WESTERN FRINGES OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
CONTINUES TO AFFECT EASTERN ARIZONA WITH OCCASIONAL STRATO-
CU...WHILE THE PACIFIC RIDGE SLOWLY EDGES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ARIZONA. SUFFICIENT REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK
VORTICITY LOBE MOVING FROM NORTHEAST ARIZONA THIS MORNING INTO EAST-
CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SPARK OFF ISOLATED SHOWERS
POTENTIALLY AFFECTING EASTERN GILA COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...SLIGHT
WARMING ALOFT AND DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A
BUMP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER YESTERDAY AS OUR WESTERN DESERTS
SHOULD REACH INTO THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE WHILE THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA DESERTS PEAK NEAR 90 DEGREES.
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND THE PACIFIC RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH 500MB HEIGHTS OF 578-580DM
THROUGH THE PERIOD. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM AROUND 21C ON
WEDNESDAY TO 24C ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
CONTINUING WARMING THROUGH THE WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER THE DESERTS. THESE READINGS STILL
FALL SHORT OF RECORDS BY A FEW DEGREES...BUT WILL BE AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AS A BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. COAST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO...BUT STILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
HEIGHTS ALOFT BEGIN TO FALL SLIGHTLY STARTING SATURDAY...BUT NOT
MUCH COOLING WILL BE REALIZED INITIALLY AS HIGHS AGAIN SHOULD TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE DESERTS. GFS AND EUROPEAN OPERATIONAL
AND ENSEMBLES MEANS ARE STILL ADVERTISING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE REGION SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT HAVE PUSHED
BACK TIMING SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THIS WILL DELAY
COOLER TEMPERATURES BY AROUND A DAY AND PUSH ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN
BACK TO NEXT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AND LIKELY LAST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING ACROSS THE PHOENIX METRO
AREA. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KT ARE EXPECTED WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 25 KT. WINDS WILL ABATE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER A SWITCH
TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING AT KIPL/KBLH.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A GENERAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH
FRIDAY. SOME COOLING WILL FOLLOW DURING THE WEEKEND...THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP
INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT FOLLOWING
TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...INIGUEZ/HIRSCH
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
1005 AM MST TUE APR 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A QUICK WARMING TREND...WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AGAIN TODAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SUNNY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE
EXCEPTION WAS NE OF TUCSON WHERE THERE WERE SOME PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. UPPER AIR PLOTS
THIS MORNING PLACED 500 MB HIGH IN NEVADA WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
AREA. HOWEVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...FLOW OVER THE
WHITE MTNS WILL BECOME MORE NE THUS STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY HAVE
A CHANCE TO MOVE OFF THE MTN A LITTLE FURTHER SW THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST. LATEST HRRR RUNS ARE DEPICTING SOME WEAK CELLS DOWN AS FAR
SOUTH AS CLIFTON IN GREENLEE COUNTY AND INTO THE SAFFORD VALLEY AND
POSSIBLY THE PINALENOS IN GRAHAM COUNTY. UOFA WRF RUNS ARE ALSO IN
LINE WITH ABOVE THINKING. THUS WILL RUN OUT AN UPDATE TO THE
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING FOR GRAHAM AND
GREENLEE COUNTIES. NOT EXPECTING MUCH RAIN WITH MAIN THREAT BEING
GUSTY WINDS NEAR STORMS. SPEAKING OF GUSTY WINDS...THE EASTERLY
GRADIENT KICKED IN THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE
FOR AREAS PRONE TO AN EAST WIND. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST HIGHS LOOK OK.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/12Z. FEW-SCT CLOUDS 10-12K FT
AGL...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF KTUS. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHC TO CHC -SHRA N OF A KSAD TO KCLT LINE.
ELY WINDS 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING...LCLY
HIGHER GUSTS NR KTUS AND KDUG THRU 28/20Z THEN GRADUALLY EASING TO
7-12 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A FEW MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH
FRIDAY. GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 MPH EXPECTED AND GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH.
LOCALLY PRONE AREAS TO AN EASTERLY WIND SUCH AS PORTIONS OF THE
TUCSON METRO AREA WILL LIKELY SEE WIND SPEEDS 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS
OVER 30 MPH. THE EASTERLY WINDS WILL TAPER OFF LATER THIS AFTERNOON
BUT WILL PICK UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS TO
TODAY. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB EACH DAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS PEAKING ABOUT
10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DEW POINTS
STEADILY DROPPING SEVERAL DEGREES EACH DAY. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE NEXT WEEKEND WITH A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
250 PM MDT TUE APR 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT TUE APR 28 2015
QUIET WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE WESTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER COLORADO. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TODAY WILL LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE 20S...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. HIGHER AREAS COULD PICK SEE UP TO AN INCH OF
SNOWFALL IN SPOTTY AREAS. OTHERWISE SOUTHEAST PLAINS LOOK VERY
STABLE...AND ALTHOUGH HRRR IS PRINTING OUT SOME LIGHT QPF IN SPOTTY
AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...AM NOT TOO OPTIMISTIC THAT THIS
WILL HAPPEN GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A CAP IN MODEL SOUNDINGS. WILL
CONFINE POPS TO THE CONTDVD REGION FOR NOW. ANY PRECIPITATION
SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. LEE TROF
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SE MTS/I-
25 CORRIDOR.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS EVEN DRIER THAN TODAY...THOUGH SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MTS
IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE
70S FOR THE PLAINS...60S FOR THE VALLEYS...40S AND 50S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. -KT
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT TUE APR 28 2015
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING
INTO THE STATE BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...AS A
SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES TRANSLATES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THIS
EMBEDDED WAVE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING AND
NORTHERN COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE TAIL END OF THE SYSTEM
SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANY CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHWESTERN MTS TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING ALOFT UNDER
THE BUILDING RIDGE. SOME INCREASED MOISTURE WITHIN THE INCREASING
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HELPS TO DEVELOP GENERALLY ISOLATED CONVECTION
OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON THURSDAY...WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW
AND WARM AIR ALOFT HELPING TO BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S AND
80S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THURSDAY...WITH MAINLY 50S AND 60S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LATEST MODELS ARE A TAD FURTHER SOUTH
WITH THE PASSING WAVE THURSDAY NIGHT...OWNING TO A STRONGER COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS AND A FEW POSSIBLE
SHOWERS OR STORMS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. INCREASING MOISTURE AND THE TAIL END OF THE PASSING WAVE TO
HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ON FRIDAY...WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER AND NEAR THE MTS
LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS SPREADING OUT ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND
PLAINS...WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE PLAINS
WITHIN DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. FRIDAYS HIGHS TO BE SOME
5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS.
SATURDAY-TUESDAY...GENERALLY WEAK WESTERLY FLOW PROGGED ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SEVERAL MINOR WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW LEADING TO MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE DESERT SW COULD BRING BETTER
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT TUE APR 28 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WINDS UNDER 10 KTS. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KT/MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
859 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 859 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015
PATCHY FOG THAT DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING IN WAKE OF PARTIAL
CLEARING HAS PRETTY MUCH BURNED OFF WITH DAYTIME HEATING. 12Z
DENVER SHOWED SHALLOW INSTABILITY IN THE MOIST LAYER UNDER A
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION NEAR 650 MB. AS A RESULT...THE DAYTIME
HEATING HAS LED TO A FAST DEVELOPMENT OF SHALLOW
CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES MOST OF THE DAY
ALTHOUGH CONTINUED MIXING SHOULD EVENTUALLY BRING MORE SUNSHINE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH JUST
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015
EARLY IN THE SHIFT BELIEVED FOG WOULD FORM NOT TOO LONG AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND BECOME WIDESPREAD ON THE PLAINS BY 09Z BASED ON THE
00Z NAM AND WRF...AND 06Z RAP AND HRRR SFC AND BNDRY LAYER RH
FIELDS. SAME MODELS ALSO INDICATED A SURGE OF NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AROUND A SFC HIGH SLIPPING SEWRD OUT OF WY DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS. STILL NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG YET...ALTHOUGH SFC
WINDS HAVE TURNED NELY IN AREAS EAST OF THE I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR
WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. SO WILL HOLD ONTO THE FOG AND LOW
CLOUD FORECAST FOR THE PLAINS UNTIL AROUND 15Z THIS MORNING.
SHOULD SEE LOWEST VISIBILITIES IN LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH
PLATTE FROM AROUND GREELEY TO STERLING. WILL ALSO KEEP PATCHY FOG
IN THE MTN VALLEYS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH PARK WITH ITS FRESH
BLANKET OF SNOW...THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.
SHOULD SEE THE LAST OF THE FOG AND LOW CLOUD BURN OFF BY LATE
MORNING AS DRIER AIR FILTERS DOWN FROM WYOMING ON LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS. COULD SEE A BAND OF THICK CIRRUS SWINGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE
AREA LATE THIS MORNING...MARKING THE START TO WARMING ALOFT. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IS FORECAST WITH SLOWLY
MIGRATE EASTWARD OVER COLORADO NEXT 24 HOURS. AIRMASS ACCOMPANYING
THIS RIDGE IS WARMER AND MUCH DRIER. ALTHOUGH LINGERING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING MAY BUBBLE UP INTO A FEW SHOWERS OVER
THE MTNS AND SOUTH PARK AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD THEN SEE SKIES
CLEAR OVERNIGHT. HIGHS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL HOOVER
AROUND THE SEASONAL NORMS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS COLORADO ON WEDNESDAY WITH
CONTINUED WARMING AND DRY AIRMASS. 700MB TEMPERATURES NEARING +6C
WILL RESULT IN READINGS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST OF COLORADO ON THURSDAY AS A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
AND SHALLOW UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO
LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS MAY LINGER WELL INTO
THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
BEHIND THE THURSDAY TROF...THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE OF A ZONAL
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STORMS MAY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS BY
LATE SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE. HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN OVER MOUNTAINS AND PALMER
DIVIDE. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND OR A BIT
HIGHER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 859 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015
FOG THREAT HAS ENDED THIS MORNING BUT SHALLOW
CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUSCLOUDS DEVELOPING WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
THESE MAY GO BROKEN WITH CEILINGS IN THE 2000-2500 FOOT LAYER
THROUGH ABOUT 18Z BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING AND SCATTERING OUT
AGAIN. ILS LANDING CONDITIONS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE VISUAL LANDINGS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT AND NORMAL
DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
422 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015
EARLY IN THE SHIFT BELIEVED FOG WOULD FORM NOT TOO LONG AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND BECOME WIDESPREAD ON THE PLAINS BY 09Z BASED ON THE
00Z NAM AND WRF...AND 06Z RAP AND HRRR SFC AND BNDRY LAYER RH
FIELDS. SAME MODELS ALSO INDICATED A SURGE OF NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AROUND A SFC HIGH SLIPPING SEWRD OUT OF WY DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS. STILL NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG YET...ALTHOUGH SFC
WINDS HAVE TURNED NELY IN AREAS EAST OF THE I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR
WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. SO WILL HOLD ONTO THE FOG AND LOW
CLOUD FORECAST FOR THE PLAINS UNTIL AROUND 15Z THIS MORNING.
SHOULD SEE LOWEST VISIBILITIES IN LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH
PLATTE FROM AROUND GREELEY TO STERLING. WILL ALSO KEEP PATCHY FOG
IN THE MTN VALLEYS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH PARK WITH ITS FRESH
BLANKET OF SNOW...THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.
SHOULD SEE THE LAST OF THE FOG AND LOW CLOUD BURN OFF BY LATE
MORNING AS DRIER AIR FILTERS DOWN FROM WYOMING ON LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS. COULD SEE A BAND OF THICK CIRRUS SWINGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE
AREA LATE THIS MORNING...MARKING THE START TO WARMING ALOFT. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IS FORECAST WITH SLOWLY
MIGRATE EASTWARD OVER COLORADO NEXT 24 HOURS. AIRMASS ACCOMPANYING
THIS RIDGE IS WARMER AND MUCH DRIER. ALTHOUGH LINGERING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING MAY BUBBLE UP INTO A FEW SHOWERS OVER
THE MTNS AND SOUTH PARK AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD THEN SEE SKIES
CLEAR OVERNIGHT. HIGHS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL HOOVER
AROUND THE SEASONAL NORMS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS COLORADO ON WEDNESDAY WITH
CONTINUED WARMING AND DRY AIRMASS. 700MB TEMPERATURES NEARING +6C
WILL RESULT IN READINGS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST OF COLORADO ON THURSDAY AS A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
AND SHALLOW UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO
LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS MAY LINGER WELL INTO
THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
BEHIND THE THURSDAY TROF...THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE OF A ZONAL
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STORMS MAY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS BY
LATE SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE. HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN OVER MOUNTAINS AND PALMER
DIVIDE. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND OR A BIT
HIGHER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015
FOG IS STILL EXPECTED TO FORM AT AND AROUND KDEN THIS HOUR...AND
AT KBJC AND KAPA THE FOLLOWING HOUR. PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ALLOW
FOR ADDITIONAL COOLING AND AS A CONSEQUENCE CAUSE FOG TO FORM IN
THE DENVER METRO AREA. PREVAILING VSBYS WILL RANGE FROM 3-5 MILES
WITH LOCAL VSBYS AS LOW AS 1/2 TO 3/4 MILE BETWEEN 11Z-14Z THIS
MORNING. THE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST AS LONG AT KAPA AND KBJC
WITH DRIER AIR MOVING DOWN OFF THE FOOTHILLS AFTER SUNRISE. COULD
SEE CEILINGS LOWERING TO 900 TO 1600 FT AGL OVERALL...AND AS LOW
AS 500 FT AGL AT KDEN IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. LATER THIS
MORNING...SAY AROUND 15Z...SHOULD SEE QUICK IMPROVEMENT AS DRIER
AND WARMER AIR SPREADS DOWN FROM WYOMING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTH-
NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN
LIGHT SOUTHERLY IN DIRECTION OVERNIGHT.
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
748 PM EDT WED APR 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE PASSES
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SLOWLY BUILDS EAST AND WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA
EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES FALLING OFF MORE QUICKLY THAN FORECAST...SO HAVE
ADJUSTED HOURLIES TO REFLECT THIS TREND. HRRR AND RAP HANDLING
THE BEST...SO WEIGHED UPDATED HOURLIES TOWARDS A BLEND OF THESE.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SW THROUGH THE CWA EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE. AFTER A BRIEF GUSTY
PERIOD WITH THE WIND SHIFT...THE WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT
BUT WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. TEMPS WILL COOL THROUGH THE
50S...AND INTO THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT NYC METRO. SKY COVER
INCREASES TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FROM E TO W BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY WILL BE A COOLER DAY DUE AN EAST FLOW AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS. MAV/NAM MOS BLEND LOOKED GOOD FOR HIGHS...WHICH
WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S OVER EASTERN SECTIONS TO
THE MID 60S FARTHER WEST AWAY FROM THE WATER. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENTERS THE NORTHERN ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH FAIRLY STABLE
CONDITIONS AND WEAK LIFT...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PIVOTS SOUTH TOWARDS THE EASTERN ZONES LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH BETTER LIFT THIS TIME...AS WELL AS MORE
MOISTURE....HAVE GONE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS HERE...BUT
MOST OF THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
START OF THE WEEKEND. SFC LOW PRES WILL MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST ON FRIDAY AND WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND
TO THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS ON SATURDAY.
SEVERAL WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THIS TIME. WITH A PERSISTENT EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW...THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH SFC MOISTURE FOR THOSE SHORTWAVES TO KICK OFF A FEW
SHOWERS...BUT CHANCES WILL BE LOW...AND WILL CAP POPS AT 30 PERCENT.
WITH THAT ONSHORE FLOW...HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL
ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60.
BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRES BOTH AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO BUILD TO THE EAST. HEIGHTS WILL RISE
OVER THE WEEKEND...AND TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL WARM BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S FOR AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER AND IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A FEW SHORTWAVES WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS MAY TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE A
THUNDERSTORM OR 2 ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WILL CAP POPS AT 20 PERCENT.
WITH HIGH PRES PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE START OF THE NEW
WEEK...DEEP SW FLOW DEVELOPS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
TEMPS WILL WARM UP ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND HIGHS WILL
TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...POSSIBLY TOUCHING 80 ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...BY TUESDAY.
COLD FRONT THEN TRIES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL CAP POPS AT CHANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVED QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA FROM AROUND 20Z
TO 23Z...AND WAS WEST OF THE NYC AREA TERMINALS. THE SEA BREEZE HAD
MOVED THROUGH SHORTLY BEFORE THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH
THE NYC METRO TERMINALS MAKING THE WIND FORECAST DIFFICULT.
WIND WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY FROM THE EAST TO NORTHEAST FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THEN
SUBSIDE...WITH SUSTAINED WIND AROUND 10 KT. AN EASTERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW LOWER CLOUDS 2500 TO 3000 FT MOVE
INTO THE TERMINALS TOWARD 12Z THURSDAY...WITH CEILINGS 4000 TO 5000
FT LIKELY.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT THROUGH 01Z. LOW
CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 2500 FT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT THROUGH 01Z. LOW CHANCE
OF MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 3000 FT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS MAY BE MORE OCCASIONAL THROUGH 02
TO 03Z...AND POSSIBLY BRIEFLY HIGHER THAN 20 KT. LOW CHANCE OF MVFR
CEILINGS AROUND 3000 FT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS MAY BE MORE OCCASIONAL THROUGH 02
TO 03Z...AND POSSIBLY BRIEFLY HIGHER THAN 20 KT. LOW CHANCE OF MVFR
CEILINGS AROUND 3000 FT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 2500 FT
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SCATTERED CLOUD DECK AROUND 2500 FT DEVELOPS
TOWARD 12Z AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS 12Z TO 14Z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ENE-NE WINDS G20KT POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT.
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW CHANCE MVFR IN SCT SHRA. NE-N WINDS G20KT
POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR. LOW CHANCE OF SHOWER/TSTM AT KSWF ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
.MONDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
GUSTS BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ARE NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS
THEY WERE EARLIER. WILL ISSUE MWS THOUGH FOR WESTERN WATERS
THROUGH MID EVENING TO REFLECT POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL 25 KT
GUSTS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
EAST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WITH SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS PICK UP THURSDAY NIGHT...AND SCA
CONDITIONS COULD POSSIBLY DEVELOP LATE AT NIGHT ON THE OCEAN
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST ON THE
OCEAN WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRES BUILDS EAST FOR THE
WEEKEND...AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE NEXT TUESDAY
WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...MET/DS
MARINE...MALOIT/JC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
751 PM EDT WED APR 29 2015
.UPDATE...
THE MAIN SHIELD OF RAIN HAS PUSHED WELL OFF TO THE SOUTH AND
THERE WILL BE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT MAINLY OVER
THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST INTO
THE WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 736 PM EDT WED APR 29 2015/
AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST TONIGHT OVER THE TAF SITES WITH
SPEEDS DECREASING FROM AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING TO AROUND 5
KNOTS LATE TONIGHT. THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVER MOST OF THE
TAF SITES TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR KPBI WHERE THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS UNTIL 02Z. THEREFORE...VCSH WILL CONTINUE AT KPBI TAF SITE
UNTIL 02Z THEN GO DRY FOR REST OF TONIGHT. THE VIS SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES.
HOWEVER...THE CEILING COULD FALL INTO THE MVFR CONDITIONS FOR AN
HOUR OR TWO THIS EVENING BUT THEN BECOME VFR FOR LATE TONIGHT.
AVIATION...54/BNB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM EDT WED APR 29 2015/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE STILL SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS ACROSS
VIRTUALLY ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. POCKETS OF CLEARING HAVE SHOWN
BRIEFLY ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA WHERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED. THE DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE THE RESULT OF CONTINUING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE KEYS DUE TO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. THE COLD
FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING
WITH A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF IT...BUT THE THREAT IS LOOKING LESS
LIKELY. THE LATEST HRRR WHICH HAS INITIALIZED WELL THROUGH THE
MORNING KEEPS THE AREA NEARLY RAIN FREE LATER THIS EVENING.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD THEN CLEAR THE AREA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY TAKING VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION
WITH IT. BY FRIDAY MORNING...ANOTHER COLD BUT DRY FRONT WILL
SURGE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE NORTH AS AN H5 TROUGH IS STILL
EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTH AND INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL BRING A
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. MOST MODEL BLENDS ARE DEPICTING DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
50S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE DRY FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO QUICKLY PUSH
TO THE EAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
MORE EASTERLY FLOW REGIME TO PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS MODELS
DEPICT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
AND PUSHING TO THE NORTHEAST AND TOWARD THE BAHAMAS. THIS WILL
RETURN DECENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
MIDWEEK.
AVIATION...
CLOUDS ARE STILL DRIFTING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. VCSH IS INCLUDED FOR ALL AIRPORTS
UNTIL 00Z APR 30. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM 220 TO 280 AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE CLOUD COVER IS NOT
ALLOWING FOR SURFACE HEATING. WITHOUT SURFACE HEATING AND THE
LOW LEVEL COOLING FROM THE RAINS EARLIER, THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
VERY LIKELY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, WE WILL AMEND THE TAFS AS
NEEDED.
MARINE...
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE ATLANTIC WATERS OF BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA...WILL HOLD OFF
FOR NOW AND COVER WITH SCEC. WINDS WILL THEN TURN MORE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 70 84 66 85 / 10 10 10 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 72 84 67 85 / 10 10 10 0
MIAMI 72 85 67 86 / 10 20 10 10
NAPLES 74 82 67 83 / 20 10 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...55/CWC
LONG TERM....55/CWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MIAMI FL
736 PM EDT WED APR 29 2015
.AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST TONIGHT OVER THE TAF SITES WITH
SPEEDS DECREASING FROM AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING TO AROUND 5
KNOTS LATE TONIGHT. THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVER MOST OF THE
TAF SITES TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR KPBI WHERE THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS UNTIL 02Z. THEREFORE...VCSH WILL CONTINUE AT KPBI TAF SITE
UNTIL 02Z THEN GO DRY FOR REST OF TONIGHT. THE VIS SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES.
HOWEVER...THE CEILING COULD FALL INTO THE MVFR CONDITIONS FOR AN
HOUR OR TWO THIS EVENING BUT THEN BECOME VFR FOR LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM EDT WED APR 29 2015/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE STILL SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS ACROSS
VIRTUALLY ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. POCKETS OF CLEARING HAVE SHOWN
BRIEFLY ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA WHERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED. THE DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE THE RESULT OF CONTINUING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE KEYS DUE TO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. THE COLD
FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING
WITH A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF IT...BUT THE THREAT IS LOOKING LESS
LIKELY. THE LATEST HRRR WHICH HAS INITIALIZED WELL THROUGH THE
MORNING KEEPS THE AREA NEARLY RAIN FREE LATER THIS EVENING.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD THEN CLEAR THE AREA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY TAKING VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION
WITH IT. BY FRIDAY MORNING...ANOTHER COLD BUT DRY FRONT WILL
SURGE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE NORTH AS AN H5 TROUGH IS STILL
EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTH AND INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL BRING A
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. MOST MODEL BLENDS ARE DEPICTING DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
50S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE DRY FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO QUICKLY PUSH
TO THE EAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
MORE EASTERLY FLOW REGIME TO PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS MODELS
DEPICT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
AND PUSHING TO THE NORTHEAST AND TOWARD THE BAHAMAS. THIS WILL
RETURN DECENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
MIDWEEK.
AVIATION...
CLOUDS ARE STILL DRIFTING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. VCSH IS INCLUDED FOR ALL AIRPORTS
UNTIL 00Z APR 30. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM 220 TO 280 AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE CLOUD COVER IS NOT
ALLOWING FOR SURFACE HEATING. WITHOUT SURFACE HEATING AND THE
LOW LEVEL COOLING FROM THE RAINS EARLIER, THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
VERY LIKELY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, WE WILL AMEND THE TAFS AS
NEEDED.
MARINE...
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE ATLANTIC WATERS OF BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA...WILL HOLD OFF
FOR NOW AND COVER WITH SCEC. WINDS WILL THEN TURN MORE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 70 84 66 85 / 20 10 10 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 72 84 67 85 / 20 10 10 0
MIAMI 72 85 67 86 / 20 20 10 10
NAPLES 74 82 67 83 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...55/CWC
LONG TERM....10/CD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
328 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-TONIGHT...THE TREND OF THE RADAR MOSAIC LOOP THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS HAS BEEN TO HAVE THE STORMS PUSH TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/TROUGH MOVED THROUGH INDIAN RIVER AND
OSCEOLA COUNTIES THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF OKEECHOBEE...SAINT
LUCIE AND MARTIN AND INTO THE ATLANTIC. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN FROM
THE LOW CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LOCAL HRRR MODEL IS A LITTLE
SLOW IN HAVING THE RAIN EXITING AT 7 PM/23Z. CANT RULE OUT LIGHT
RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS MID LEVEL IMPULSES CROSS
OVERHEAD AND THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE 250MB JET APPROACHES
FLORIDA.
ON THE MAP...THE DEVELOPING LOW SOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA
LIFTS NORTHEAST TO NORTHERN FLORIDA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND IN THE
ATLANTIC EAST OF GEORGIA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING
THE STALLING BOUNDARY VICINITY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE LIFTS NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS EXTENDING FROM THE LOW
PUSHES ACROSS FLORIDA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER THE KEY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHWEST WED MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
MID LEVEL IMPULSES CROSSING OVERHEAD AND THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF
THE 250MB JET APPROACHING FLORIDA ENHANCES RAIN CHANCES TO AROUND 50
PERCENT THIS EVENING THEN TAPERING OFF TO PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES FROM THE LOW OVERCAST SKIES THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
WED...LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST. WINDS ABOVE THE
SURFACE FORECAST TO BE SOUTHWEST AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HAS
YET TO CLEAR FLORIDA. THIS WILL KEEP MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE..500MB IMPULSES AND RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE 250MB JET
OVER THE AREA RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES INITIALLY THEN
CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR CLOUDINESS LIFTS EAST AND AWAY.
THU-THU NIGHT...(MODIFIED PREV DISC) THE SURFACE LOW PULLING AWAY
FROM THE REGION UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS AN ASCD COLD FRONT
PULLS SOUTHWARD AND EAST WELL AWAY FROM ECFL. DRIER AIR WL SLOWLY
SLIDE DOWN THE PENINSULA. LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY VEER TO N/NNE BY EARLY EVENING. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S...EXCEPT SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE INTO THE INTERIOR AND AWAY
FROM LARGER METROPOLITAN AREAS.
FRI-MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST TO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER INFLUENCE. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN BELOW
20 PERCENT. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING AN ISOLD SHRA DURING THIS
STRETCH WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OR PERHAPS OVER THE TREASURE
COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. SLIGHTLY UNSEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
(HIGHS/LOWS) FOR FRI-SAT WITH NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS AGAIN FOR SUN-
MON.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR THIS EVENING AND TEMPO IFR 00Z-
15Z.
&&
.MARINE...NOAA BUOY 009 WAS RECORDING SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 12 TO 14
KNOTS AND 2 FOOT SEAS. THE TWO SCRIPPS BUOYS AT 4 AND 6NM OFF THE
BEACH WERE RECORDING 1 TO 2 FOOT SEAS.
TONIGHT-WED...SOUTHEAST WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 15 KNOTS OR
LESS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO TRACKS NORTHEAST TO NORTHERN FLORIDA THEN EAST OF GEORGIA BY
DAYS END WEDNESDAY.
THU-SAT...WINDS BECOMING W/NW ON THU...THEN NW/N THU NIGHT- FRI.
LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEEDS AT PRESENT DUE TO OVERALL
STRENGTH OF LOW/PLACEMENT/EXACT TRACK. POST LOW PRESSURE GRADIENT
SLOWLY RELAXES THU INTO FRI...THEN FALLING BACK TO AOB 10 KTS FOR
SAT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 68 85 66 79 / 40 50 10 10
MCO 67 87 67 82 / 40 40 10 10
MLB 69 88 67 80 / 50 40 10 10
VRB 67 89 67 83 / 50 40 10 10
LEE 69 85 67 79 / 40 40 10 10
SFB 68 87 67 80 / 40 50 10 20
ORL 69 87 68 81 / 40 50 10 20
FPR 69 88 67 84 / 50 40 20 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WIMMER
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
257 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
SIMILAR TO TODAY, THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WILL BE COMPLEX. A
SURFACE LOW IS SITUATED SOUTH OF LOUISIANA WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING WEST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH NW FLORIDA TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT
OF TIMING AND EXACT LOCATION OF THE LOW. THE GFS AND HRRR SHOW
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASING AFTER 03Z. POPS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT. THE STRENGTH OF THE STORMS WILL
DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE AMOUNT OF TIME IN THE WARM
SECTOR. WITH 500- 1000 J/KG CAPE AND 50-60 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR,
SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 60S.
.SHORT TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE PARENT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS
MAY LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. HOWEVER, WITH THE LOW EXITING THE REGION, SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR OF BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
LOWS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING TO BE IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS ON
THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...
A MODEST UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD, KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY AND TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY] MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH PERIODS OF IFR AFTER 06Z DUE TO FOG AND LOW CEILINGS.
MENTIONED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH RAIN
CHANCES DECREASING TOMORROW.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTHEAST OR THE AREA AND OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH BRIEF
PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
REMAIN NEAR EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT, WITH OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS THAN AN INCH.
WHILE LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE, THE EXPECTED AVERAGE
TOTALS SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS OUR
AREA. SOME AREA RIVERS MAY SEE INCREASED FLOWS IN THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, BUT NOT MANY SHOULD REACH FLOOD STAGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 66 79 56 78 56 / 50 40 10 0 0
PANAMA CITY 68 73 57 75 60 / 40 30 10 0 0
DOTHAN 62 71 53 74 54 / 60 40 10 0 0
ALBANY 61 71 52 74 53 / 60 50 20 0 0
VALDOSTA 63 78 55 79 55 / 50 50 10 0 0
CROSS CITY 66 80 58 77 57 / 50 50 10 0 0
APALACHICOLA 70 79 59 76 60 / 40 30 10 0 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL BAY-
COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL GULF-SOUTH WALTON.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR APALACHEE
BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER
TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS
FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...WESTON
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...CAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
931 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A STORM
SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF COAST REGION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD BACK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...GRADUALLY SETTLING OVER THE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY WEAK PUSH OF ISENTROPIC ASSENT
IS SKIRTING THE ALTAMAHA RIVER THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY LOOKS QUITE
LIGHT AND THERE HAS BEEN NO EVIDENCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN REACHING
THE GROUND. RAP AND 12Z OBSERVED RAOBS SHOW VERY DRY AIR IN
PLACE...WHICH WILL LIKELY HOLD FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGH
RESOLUTION DATA ARE NOT OVERLY FAVORABLE FOR RAIN TODAY...SO POPS
WILL BE CUT BACK...LIMITING 20-30 PERCENT POPS TO COUNTIES
BORDERING THE ALTAMAHA RIVER WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT MORE
PLENTIFUL. EVEN THIS MAY PROVE TOO AGGRESSIVE PER LATEST H3R AND
RAP MODEL OUTPUT. PINNING DOWN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY
AS THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT HIGH CLOUDS MAY THIN BY EARLY-
MID AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. WILL NUDGE
HIGH UP 1 DEGREE OR SO FOR MOST LOCATIONS TO TREND. FURTHER
ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS DEEP
MOISTURE COMBINES WITH UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND NEARBY JET. THE SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT SHOULD BE OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA BY
DAYBREAK...LIKELY NOT GETTING MUCH MORE NORTH THAN THE ALTAMAHA
RIVER. THIS WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE
AREA AND THUS THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS PRETTY LOW...MAINLY
ELEVATED IN NATURE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AND ENHANCED HELICITY NEAR THE WARM FRONT SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY
NOT BE TOO FAR AWAY SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE PROGRESSION
OF THE WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT. LOWS SHOULD GET INTO THE 50S MOST
LOCALES AWAY FROM THE COAST ALTHOUGH TEMPS COULD RISE NEAR THE GA
COAST LATE AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME
ABSORBED BY A MUCH STRONGER CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM JET WILL MAINTAIN A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE WEAKENING UPPER
LOW. MODELS ARE NOW COMING INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK
OF THE SURFACE LOW...AS THE NAM12 AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE
GFS SOLUTION BY KEEPING THE LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. MODELS
GENERALLY TRACK THE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA OR FAR
SOUTHERN GEORGIA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN MOVE IT JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE LOW THEN BEGINS PULLING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AS THE LOW PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY MORNING...SHOWERS WILL
BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE...ALONG WITH
STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT...UPPER DIVERGENCE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING/WEAKENING UPPER LOW. AS THE SURFACE LOW
TRANSITIONS TO A POSITION JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...THE
GREATEST SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BEGIN LIFTING OUT WITH DECREASING RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS OF KEEPING THE AREA SOLIDLY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
LOW...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR NEARLY ALL AREAS.
THE EXCEPTION IS MCINTOSH COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS...WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED
ON WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY UNEXPECTED ENCROACHMENT OF THE WARM
SECTOR OR EVEN SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT APPEARS GREATLY REDUCED AT THIS TIME AS WELL. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...THE NORTHEAST FLOW COMBINED WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
WILL RESULT IN A VERY COOL DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TOWARD
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS AT NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AN UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL DROP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND OVER THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
STRENGTHEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A FEW INSTABILITY SHOWERS COULD OCCUR ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP CLOSED LOW...AND THE FORECAST
INDICATES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA...MAINLY NORTH OF I-16. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY
COOL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S MOST AREAS. LOWS WILL REMAIN IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
FRIDAY...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN RAIN-
FREE CONDITIONS...BUT COOL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...LEADING TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...THEN TRANSITION TO OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EARLY
NEXT WEEK. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WITH A RETURN FLOW BRINGING
IN SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND A MORE PRONOUNCED SEA BREEZE EARLY
NEXT WEEK...ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION CERTAINLY COULD NOT BE RULED
OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE ON SATURDAY...RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
SUNDAY...THEN CLIMB TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING...THEN
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT AS SHOWERS DEVELOP AHEAD OF
LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT MVFR...OR POSSIBLY
LOWER...CEILINGS AFTER 05Z ALONG WITH LIGHT SHOWERS.
KSAV...SHOWERS WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE DAY
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
REGION. HAVE ADDED VICINITY SHOWERS TO THE TAF AFTER 16Z...ALONG
WITH GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH...CAUSING
SHOWERS TO OVERSPREAD THE TERMINAL AND CEILINGS TO LOWER TO MVFR
OR LOWER LEVELS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST AND SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE NORTH OF
THE AREA WHILE A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF
COAST SHIFTS TOWARD SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ENHANCED
WINDS/SEAS...CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS. LOW CONFIDENCE AND THE
MARGINAL NATURE OF THE EVENT PRECLUDES ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME
BUT CAN/T RULE THEM OUT EVENTUALLY DEPENDING ON WHERE THE BEST
GRADIENT SETS UP...WHICH SEEMS MOST LIKELY ALONG THE LOWER SC AND
NORTHERN GA NEARSHORE WATERS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES JUST EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS
WEDNESDAY...THEN BEGINS TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
ALL WATERS WEDNESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE LOW. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD
THEN SLOWLY IMPROVE ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS
FARTHER NORTH/NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA...BEFORE IMPROVING
FURTHER AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS...SEEING SOME 8-9 SECOND SWELL AT BOTH BUOYS 41004
AND 41008. THIS WAS NOT RESOLVED WELL BY THE LATEST WW4 OUTPUT.
INPUTING THIS INFORMATION COMBINED WITH BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS
YIELDS A HIGH-END LOW RISK TO LOW-END MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS FOR THE GEORGIA BEACHES...INCLUDING TYBEE ISLAND. WILL
MAINTAIN A LOW RISK FOR NOW...BUT MAY OPT FOR A MODERATE RISK
LATER SHOULD WINDS INCREASE OR A BIT MORE SWELL MATERIALIZES.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
858 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 853 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015
UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO DIVE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE ARE ABOUT
AS WIDESPREAD AS THEY HAVE BEEN, WHICH IS NOT SAYING MUCH, AND
WILL BRING SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TO THE EASTERN 2/3 OR
SO OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER, DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST IL. GOING FORECAST WAS IN REASONABLE SHAPE OVERALL,
BUT HAVE UPDATED FOR THE LATEST OVERNIGHT TRENDS. THE MOST NOTABLE
CHANGE WAS TO DECREASE THE ALREADY LOW POPS A BIT MORE BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEAST MO. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD INTO EAST
CENTRAL INDIANA BY NOON THU AND TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER SYSTEM
TO AFFECT CENTRAL/SE IL NEXT 24 HOURS ESPECIALLY EASTERN IL.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH BASED CUMULUS CLOUDS 7-9K FT WEST OF
HIGHWAY 51 WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER EASTERN IL REST OF
TODAY. AS NEXT SHORT WAVE DROPS SOUTHWARD, SHORT RANGE MODELS LIKE
HRRR AND RAP DEVELOP ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL IL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND SHIFT IT SE LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. CONTINUE 20-30% CHANCES OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING
(ISOLATED THUNDER NORTH OF I- 72 UNTIL SUNSET) AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS EAST OF I-55 OVERNIGHT. LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIGHT (LESS THAN A TENTH INCH) IF THEY HAPPEN.
LOWS OVERNIGHT RANGE FROM LOWER 40S FROM LINCOLN NORTH TO THE
UPPER 40S SE OF I-70. NNE WINDS OF 5-10 MPH TONIGHT WITH NO FOG
EXPECTED TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH, EAST OF THE AREA,
WHICH WILL KEEP THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE CWA THURSDAY,
KEEPING US WITH NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE EAST FOR THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
SOUTH. ONCE THAT PASSES THURSDAY EVENING DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
BEGINNING FRIDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS RIDGE WILL DROP
SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THERE FOR SATURDAY.
HOWEVER, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THE
WEEKEND. A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. ANY PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WAVES SHOULD REMAIN
WEST OF THE AREA AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM AROUND NORMAL FOR THURSDAY
TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO THE SOUTHEAST US BY SATURDAY
NIGHT, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO BEGIN TO TRANSITION
TO A MORE ZONAL PATTER FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN TO THE CWA, BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES. IN ADDITION, ANY PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH
ADDITIONAL WEAK MID LEVEL WAVES WILL HOLD TOGETHER LONGER AND BE
ABLE TO REACH INTO THE CWA. SO WILL KEEP THE POPS IN THE FORECAST
BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. WITH THE FLOW BECOMING ZONAL ANY SURFACE FRONT WILL
BECOME SOMEWHAT STATIONARY OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE CWA THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE, IT LOOKS LIKE
LIKELY POPS IS WARRANTED FOR THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA, WITH
CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTH, AND EITHER NO POPS OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THE SOUTHEAST.
TEMPS WILL BECOME WARMER, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA, WHICH SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH PART OF
THE WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS PATTERN.
BELIEVE GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE ON THE WARM SIDE FOR DAYTIME HIGHS,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE THERE WILL BE PCPN AND CLOUDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015
WHILE A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS,
QUIET/VFR AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL TERMINALS THROUGH THE 00Z TAF VALID TIME. CIGS WELL INTO THE
VFR CATEGORY WILL SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME DIURNAL
REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD, INCREASING INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE DURING PEAK
HEATING THURSDAY.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BAK
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
658 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEAST MO. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD INTO EAST
CENTRAL INDIANA BY NOON THU AND TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER SYSTEM
TO AFFECT CENTRAL/SE IL NEXT 24 HOURS ESPECIALLY EASTERN IL.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH BASED CUMULUS CLOUDS 7-9K FT WEST OF
HIGHWAY 51 WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER EASTERN IL REST OF
TODAY. AS NEXT SHORT WAVE DROPS SOUTHWARD, SHORT RANGE MODELS LIKE
HRRR AND RAP DEVELOP ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL IL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND SHIFT IT SE LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. CONTINUE 20-30% CHANCES OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING
(ISOLATED THUNDER NORTH OF I- 72 UNTIL SUNSET) AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS EAST OF I-55 OVERNIGHT. LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIGHT (LESS THAN A TENTH INCH) IF THEY HAPPEN.
LOWS OVERNIGHT RANGE FROM LOWER 40S FROM LINCOLN NORTH TO THE
UPPER 40S SE OF I-70. NNE WINDS OF 5-10 MPH TONIGHT WITH NO FOG
EXPECTED TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH, EAST OF THE AREA,
WHICH WILL KEEP THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE CWA THURSDAY,
KEEPING US WITH NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE EAST FOR THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
SOUTH. ONCE THAT PASSES THURSDAY EVENING DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
BEGINNING FRIDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS RIDGE WILL DROP
SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THERE FOR SATURDAY.
HOWEVER, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THE
WEEKEND. A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. ANY PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WAVES SHOULD REMAIN
WEST OF THE AREA AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM AROUND NORMAL FOR THURSDAY
TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO THE SOUTHEAST US BY SATURDAY
NIGHT, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO BEGIN TO TRANSITION
TO A MORE ZONAL PATTER FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN TO THE CWA, BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES. IN ADDITION, ANY PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH
ADDITIONAL WEAK MID LEVEL WAVES WILL HOLD TOGETHER LONGER AND BE
ABLE TO REACH INTO THE CWA. SO WILL KEEP THE POPS IN THE FORECAST
BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. WITH THE FLOW BECOMING ZONAL ANY SURFACE FRONT WILL
BECOME SOMEWHAT STATIONARY OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE CWA THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE, IT LOOKS LIKE
LIKELY POPS IS WARRANTED FOR THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA, WITH
CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTH, AND EITHER NO POPS OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THE SOUTHEAST.
TEMPS WILL BECOME WARMER, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA, WHICH SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH PART OF
THE WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS PATTERN.
BELIEVE GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE ON THE WARM SIDE FOR DAYTIME HIGHS,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE THERE WILL BE PCPN AND CLOUDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015
WHILE A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS,
QUIET/VFR AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL TERMINALS THROUGH THE 00Z TAF VALID TIME. CIGS WELL INTO THE
VFR CATEGORY WILL SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME DIURNAL
REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD, INCREASING INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE DURING PEAK
HEATING THURSDAY.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1215 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
SKIES ARE CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK SO NO
UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
ANOTHER CHILLY START TO THE DAY IS ON TAP...WITH MID 30S AND
PATCHY FROST TO START THE DAY NORTH OF I-74. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING ACROSS ILLINOIS FROM NE TO SW WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE
AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR. THE HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY
HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE 850-925MB LAYER ACROSS OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE NAM AND GFS. FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS FORMATION WILL BE MORE CONCENTRATED THERE... BUT
SUNSHINE SHOULD STILL BE THE RULE FOR THE DAY IN MOST AREAS. HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID 60S NEAR INDIANA AND THE UPPER 60S WEST
OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING HEIGHTS WILL
PEAK BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH OUR HIGHER
WIND GUSTS FOR THE DAY. A FEW GUSTS MAY REACH 16-17 MPH... BUT
OVERALL WINDS SHOULD BE LESS GUSTY THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
INITIAL CONCERN FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS WITH RAIN POTENTIAL
MID WEEK. UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS
NORTHEAST TO HUDSON BAY PROGGED BY ALL MODELS TO CARVE OUT A
SIZABLE CLOUDS LOW OVER ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY...DROPPING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE MIDWEST BY THURSDAY MORNING. GFS IS A BIT FURTHER EAST WITH
THIS PROJECTION...WITH GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORING A PATH ALONG
THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA BORDER. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME SHOWERS INTO THE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COLD CORE WITH THE UPPER LOW
(500 MB TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW -20C) INTRODUCES SOME STEEP LAPSE
RATES. ALSO MENTIONED SOME ISOLATED THUNDER AS WELL. HAVE LINGERED
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POP`S ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE LOW SETTLING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...HAVE
ALSO MENTIONED SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF I-57 CLOSER TO THE LOW
TRACK.
FURTHER OUT IN TIME...UPPER FLOW SHIFTS MORE ZONAL TO START THE
WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING A TROUGH MOVING ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER...WITH THE ECMWF DEVELOPING MORE OF A BROADENING
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE GFS REMAINS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
CLOSER TO THE BORDER. STILL NOT VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RAIN
POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY...AND HAVE PULLED BACK SOME ON THE POP`S.
SATURDAY NIGHT...HAVE FOLLOWED MORE OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF A
POTENTIAL MCS SYSTEM ROLLING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
RAIN CHANCES PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE BROADENING TROUGH
APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THE GENERAL IDEA FOR TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITH WARMING CONDITIONS...
ALTHOUGH A BRIEF COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DIP CLOSER TO 0C AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE US AND THIS
KEEPS CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES. ONE LINE TAFS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTH-
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE THE RULE NEXT 24HRS.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AUTEN
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...AUTEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1043 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
SKIES ARE CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK SO NO
UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
ANOTHER CHILLY START TO THE DAY IS ON TAP...WITH MID 30S AND
PATCHY FROST TO START THE DAY NORTH OF I-74. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING ACROSS ILLINOIS FROM NE TO SW WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE
AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR. THE HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY
HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE 850-925MB LAYER ACROSS OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE NAM AND GFS. FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS FORMATION WILL BE MORE CONCENTRATED THERE... BUT
SUNSHINE SHOULD STILL BE THE RULE FOR THE DAY IN MOST AREAS. HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID 60S NEAR INDIANA AND THE UPPER 60S WEST
OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING HEIGHTS WILL
PEAK BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH OUR HIGHER
WIND GUSTS FOR THE DAY. A FEW GUSTS MAY REACH 16-17 MPH... BUT
OVERALL WINDS SHOULD BE LESS GUSTY THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
INITIAL CONCERN FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS WITH RAIN POTENTIAL
MID WEEK. UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS
NORTHEAST TO HUDSON BAY PROGGED BY ALL MODELS TO CARVE OUT A
SIZABLE CLOUDS LOW OVER ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY...DROPPING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE MIDWEST BY THURSDAY MORNING. GFS IS A BIT FURTHER EAST WITH
THIS PROJECTION...WITH GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORING A PATH ALONG
THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA BORDER. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME SHOWERS INTO THE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COLD CORE WITH THE UPPER LOW
(500 MB TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW -20C) INTRODUCES SOME STEEP LAPSE
RATES. ALSO MENTIONED SOME ISOLATED THUNDER AS WELL. HAVE LINGERED
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POP`S ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE LOW SETTLING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...HAVE
ALSO MENTIONED SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF I-57 CLOSER TO THE LOW
TRACK.
FURTHER OUT IN TIME...UPPER FLOW SHIFTS MORE ZONAL TO START THE
WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING A TROUGH MOVING ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER...WITH THE ECMWF DEVELOPING MORE OF A BROADENING
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE GFS REMAINS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
CLOSER TO THE BORDER. STILL NOT VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RAIN
POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY...AND HAVE PULLED BACK SOME ON THE POP`S.
SATURDAY NIGHT...HAVE FOLLOWED MORE OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF A
POTENTIAL MCS SYSTEM ROLLING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
RAIN CHANCES PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE BROADENING TROUGH
APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THE GENERAL IDEA FOR TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITH WARMING CONDITIONS...
ALTHOUGH A BRIEF COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DIP CLOSER TO 0C AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTHEAST OF ILLINOIS WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER
AT A MINIMUM. HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT OVER INDIANA COULD PUSH A
FEW MORE CLOUDS OVER CMI AND DEC, WHILE THE OTHER TERMINAL SITES
REMAIN RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL BE LESS GUSTY TODAY, WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 15KT
GENERALLY BETWEEN 16Z-19Z. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR
LESS AFTER 00Z, AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DECOUPLE FROM THE MID-
LEVEL WINDS.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AUTEN
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SHIMON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
643 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
ANOTHER CHILLY START TO THE DAY IS ON TAP...WITH MID 30S AND
PATCHY FROST TO START THE DAY NORTH OF I-74. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING ACROSS ILLINOIS FROM NE TO SW WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE
AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR. THE HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY
HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE 850-925MB LAYER ACROSS OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE NAM AND GFS. FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS FORMATION WILL BE MORE CONCENTRATED THERE... BUT
SUNSHINE SHOULD STILL BE THE RULE FOR THE DAY IN MOST AREAS. HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID 60S NEAR INDIANA AND THE UPPER 60S WEST
OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING HEIGHTS WILL
PEAK BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH OUR HIGHER
WIND GUSTS FOR THE DAY. A FEW GUSTS MAY REACH 16-17 MPH... BUT
OVERALL WINDS SHOULD BE LESS GUSTY THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
INITIAL CONCERN FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS WITH RAIN POTENTIAL
MID WEEK. UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS
NORTHEAST TO HUDSON BAY PROGGED BY ALL MODELS TO CARVE OUT A
SIZABLE CLOUDS LOW OVER ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY...DROPPING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE MIDWEST BY THURSDAY MORNING. GFS IS A BIT FURTHER EAST WITH
THIS PROJECTION...WITH GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORING A PATH ALONG
THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA BORDER. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME SHOWERS INTO THE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COLD CORE WITH THE UPPER LOW
(500 MB TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW -20C) INTRODUCES SOME STEEP LAPSE
RATES. ALSO MENTIONED SOME ISOLATED THUNDER AS WELL. HAVE LINGERED
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POP`S ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE LOW SETTLING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...HAVE
ALSO MENTIONED SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF I-57 CLOSER TO THE LOW
TRACK.
FURTHER OUT IN TIME...UPPER FLOW SHIFTS MORE ZONAL TO START THE
WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING A TROUGH MOVING ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER...WITH THE ECMWF DEVELOPING MORE OF A BROADENING
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE GFS REMAINS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
CLOSER TO THE BORDER. STILL NOT VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RAIN
POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY...AND HAVE PULLED BACK SOME ON THE POP`S.
SATURDAY NIGHT...HAVE FOLLOWED MORE OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF A
POTENTIAL MCS SYSTEM ROLLING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
RAIN CHANCES PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE BROADENING TROUGH
APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THE GENERAL IDEA FOR TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITH WARMING CONDITIONS...
ALTHOUGH A BRIEF COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DIP CLOSER TO 0C AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTHEAST OF ILLINOIS WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER
AT A MINIMUM. HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT OVER INDIANA COULD PUSH A
FEW MORE CLOUDS OVER CMI AND DEC, WHILE THE OTHER TERMINAL SITES
REMAIN RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL BE LESS GUSTY TODAY, WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 15KT
GENERALLY BETWEEN 16Z-19Z. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR
LESS AFTER 00Z, AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DECOUPLE FROM THE MID-
LEVEL WINDS.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SHIMON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
304 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
ANOTHER CHILLY START TO THE DAY IS ON TAP...WITH MID 30S AND
PATCHY FROST TO START THE DAY NORTH OF I-74. HOWEVER, A SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS ILLINOIS FROM NE TO SW WILL PROVIDE
SUBSIDENCE AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR. THE HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE TO
SHOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE 850-925MB LAYER ACROSS OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE NAM AND GFS.
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS FORMATION WILL BE MORE CONCENTRATED THERE...
BUT SUNSHINE SHOULD STILL BE THE RULE FOR THE DAY IN MOST AREAS.
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID 60S NEAR INDIANA AND THE UPPER 60S
WEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING HEIGHTS
WILL PEAK BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH OUR
HIGHER WIND GUSTS FOR THE DAY. A FEW GUSTS MAY REACH 16-17 MPH...
BUT OVERALL WINDS SHOULD BE LESS GUSTY THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
INITIAL CONCERN FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS WITH RAIN POTENTIAL
MID WEEK. UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS
NORTHEAST TO HUDSON BAY PROGGED BY ALL MODELS TO CARVE OUT A
SIZABLE CLOUDS LOW OVER ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY...DROPPING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE MIDWEST BY THURSDAY MORNING. GFS IS A BIT FURTHER EAST WITH
THIS PROJECTION...WITH GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORING A PATH ALONG
THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA BORDER. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME SHOWERS INTO THE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COLD CORE WITH THE UPPER LOW
(500 MB TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW -20C) INTRODUCES SOME STEEP LAPSE
RATES. ALSO MENTIONED SOME ISOLATED THUNDER AS WELL. HAVE LINGERED
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POP`S ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE LOW SETTLING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...HAVE
ALSO MENTIONED SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF I-57 CLOSER TO THE LOW
TRACK.
FURTHER OUT IN TIME...UPPER FLOW SHIFTS MORE ZONAL TO START THE
WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING A TROUGH MOVING ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER...WITH THE ECMWF DEVELOPING MORE OF A BROADENING
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE GFS REMAINS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
CLOSER TO THE BORDER. STILL NOT VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RAIN
POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY...AND HAVE PULLED BACK SOME ON THE POP`S.
SATURDAY NIGHT...HAVE FOLLOWED MORE OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF A
POTENTIAL MCS SYSTEM ROLLING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
RAIN CHANCES PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE BROADENING TROUGH
APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THE GENERAL IDEA FOR TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITH WARMING CONDITIONS...
ALTHOUGH A BRIEF COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DIP CLOSER TO 0C AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THRU THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THRU
TUESDAY BRINGING ONLY A SCATTERING OF CLOUDS AND A NORTHEAST
FLOW. LATEST MODEL DATA PULLING BACK A BIT ON THE AMOUNT OF
MIXING EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON RESULTING IN LIGHTER WINDS
THAN WHAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED OVER THE AREA THE PAST FEW
AFTERNOONS. LOOK FOR A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND TONIGHT TO BECOME
NORTHEAST TUESDAY AT 8 TO 13 KTS...AND THEN A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW FOR TOMORROW NIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS DROPPING TO 5 KTS OR LESS
AFTER 00Z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1112 PM MDT MON APR 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM MDT MON APR 27 2015
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE SCALE CLOSED UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER TX PANHANDLE WITH MID LEVEL VORTICITY ROTATING
THROUGH OK/SOUTHER KS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO
BUILD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR
CWA..ALONG WITH FALLING TDS.
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...RADAR SHOWS BULK OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIP ALONG KS/OK BORDER TRANSITING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...THOUGH
THERE ARE SOME LIGHT RETURNS ROTATING NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
PART OF OUR CWA. BASED ON INCREASING TD DEPRESSION OVER THE
CWA...AND AXIS OF FORCING/BETTER MOISTURE WELL SOUTH...ANY OF THESE
LIGHT RETURNS WOULD LIKELY BE VIRGA AT MOST THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR WITH BUILDING
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. GOOD RADIATION CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
LOCATIONS IN OUR CWA TO REACH FREEZING (POSSIBLY LOWER)
TONIGHT...THOUGH WITH AN INCREASE IN TD VALUES ADVERTISED FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE WE MAY NOT FALL AS MUCH. WET GROUND CONDITIONS COULD
ALSO KEEP TD VALUES FROM DROPPING AS MUCH AS ADVERTISED WHICH SEEMS
TO ALREADY BE THE CASE THIS AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY...H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST AND TEMPS ALOFT WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE...AND BETTER DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS IN
THE 60S/NEAR 70 FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. THERE IS STILL A SECONDARY H3
JET PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND A LIGHT PRECIP
SIGNAL WITH SOME GUIDANCE IN OUR NORTH. I STILL CANT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SPRINKLE IN OUR NORTHEAST WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AS
MID LEVEL VORT MAX PASSES TO THE NORTH AND COLD POOL DEVELOPS...BUT
MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. IN THE END THIS
MAY JUST BE VIRGA AND LITTLE ELSE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT MON APR 27 2015
GOING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...H5/H7 RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ENTIRE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS THRU MIDWEEK. MODELS
TREND THIS RIDGE TO FLATTEN... AND ALLOW FOR ZONAL FLOW FOR THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK ON INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS TO ENSUE INTO THURSDAY...BUT WITH RIDGE
FLATTENING ALLOWING ZONAL FLOW...THE AREA WILL SEE A SEVERAL 700MB
SHORTWAVES WORKING OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS REGION. EACH
SUBSEQUENT SYSTEM WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR RW/TRW...WITH BEST
CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AT THE END OF THE WEEK. SURFACE LEE-
SIDE TROUGHS WILL WORK OFF THE FRONT RANGE WITH EACH
SYSTEM...PROVIDING ENHANCEMENT FOR TRW TO FORM...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HRS. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED WILL RANGE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR BOTH HIGH/LOWS. 850 TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR
HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S...ON UP TO 80F IN SPOTS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...WITH SOME L50S
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL/COULD BE TEMPERED SOME BY THE
EXTENT OF CLOUDS FROM EXPECTED PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM MDT MON APR 27 2015
VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. UPPER
LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY WITH
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES IN ITS WAKE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...024
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
847 PM EDT WED APR 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
840 PM UPDATE: LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKENING BAND OF
WDLY SCT TO SCT SHWRS MOVG SW XTNDG FROM THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS
TO SE WASHINGTON COUNTY. LATEST HRRR MODEL FCST SIM RADAR REF
INDICATES THIS BAND TO CONT WEAKENING OVR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HRS...WITH ANOTHER BAND ARRIVING FROM NB PROV SOMETIME AFT MDNGT
INTO ERN PTNS OF THE REGION. IN ORDER TO FACILITATE THIS TMG A
LITTLE BETTER...WE TM SHIFTED HIGHER POPS SLATED FOR ERLY THU MORN
OVR E PTNS OF THE FA FORWARD TO THE PRESENT BY 2 TO 3 HRS.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TO FCST HRLY TEMPS INTO THE OVRNGT BASED
ON 8 PM OBS.
ORGNL DISC: A BROAD CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT HAS AFFECTED THE AREA
FOR NEARLY A WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE FORECAST AREA WEATHER
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LOW WILL FILL AND MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BIGGEST RESIDUAL EFFECT WILL BE A
MOIST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW SENDING ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE AREA
AND MAINTAINING CLOUDINESS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. COOL TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AND HIGHS
ON THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. WEAK IMPULSES MOVING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL GENERATE THE THREAT OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH AMOUNTS OF JUST A HUNDREDTH OF AN
INCH OR SO. CHANCES ARE HIGHEST TOWARDS WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK
COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARD NORTHERN
MAINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...THOUGH CLOUD COVER COULD BEGIN
TO DECREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATE. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN AREA SATURDAY WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL LOCATION OF THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND
BRINGING WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE REGION COMBINED WITH A
WEAK TROUGH IN CENTRAL CANADA WILL BE GRADUALLY PULLING WARMER AIR
INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PARTLY SUNNY AND WARM DAY ON
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE DRY AND MILD. WARMER AIR CONTINUING TO ADVECT IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST SHOULD BRING AN EVEN WARMER DAY ON MONDAY WITH PARTIAL
SUNSHINE AND HIGHS REACHING AROUND 70 IN MOST SPOTS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS TUESDAY REACHING THE MID 60S WITH
A CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKY. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MAY THEN
FILTER ACROSS THE FAR NORTH ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CANADA STRETCHING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY
NIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS ARE ANTICIPATED. NO
FOG IS EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
102 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. A BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
100 PM UPDATE...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST, AS A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUES
TO PUSH WESTWARD OUT OF NEW BRUNSWICK. OTHERWISE, MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS TO MATCH THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. NO
OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION THIS MORNING
AND THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE
MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. WV
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED ANOTHER SPOKE OF ENERGY THAT WILL AID
THESE SHOWERS TO MOVE SSW TODAY FROM THE MARITIMES. THE LATEST RUN
OF THE 3KM HRRR AND THE NAM MATCHING UP WELL W/THE LATEST
CONDITIONS AS THE GFS. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO INCREASE THE POPS FOR
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS AND EXPAND THE AREAL COVERAGE AS
WELL. TEMPERATURES WERE DOWN IN THE MID 30S IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS W/DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 30S. PRECIP
COULD FALL AS A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN OR EVEN SOME SLEET THIS MORNING
BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM LATER THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE 40S AND 50S BY THE AFTERNOON WILL PRECIP IN THE FORM
OF RAIN. SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE LLVLS
ESPECIALLY IN THE 0-3KM LAYER W/0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS. WINDS
WERE INCREASED TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SETUP.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF INTO EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN
BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LLVL CONVERGENCE AND MID LEVEL
FORCING WEAKEN. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP BACK INTO THE
30S OVERNIGHT W/RAIN FOR THE MOST PART. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL
BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SAY ABOVE 1000 FT AS SOME SNOW COULD MIX
IN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE
LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES W/EASTERN AREAS NEAR THE MAINE-NEW
BRUNSWICK BORDER SEEING UP TO 0.25 INCHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO
LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WE COULD
STILL SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND INTO WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE
EXPECT THE UPPER LOW TO BE REPLACED BY RIDGING BOTH AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGHS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WE
COULD BE LOOKING AT HIGHS REACHING CLOSE TO 70 DEGREES IN SOME
AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR THIS MORNING W/PERIODS OF VFR. MVFR CONDITIONS
FORECAST TO RETURN FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WHILE KBGR AND KBHB ARE EXPECTED TO SEE
CONDITIONS GO TO VFR. ALL TERMINALS TO EXPERIENCE VFR INTO EARLY
TONIGHT AND THEN CONDITIONS COULD DROP BACK TO MVFR BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOWER CIGS MOVING IN FROM NEW BRUNSWICK.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 11 AM UPDATE...HAVE ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO
EXPIRE AS WINDS AND HAVES ARE AT MARGINAL LEVELS AND WILL REMAIN
SO THROUGH THE DAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WINDS/SEAS RIGHT SCA LEVELS AND WINDS TO
PICK UP AFTER 12Z(8AM). THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL STAY AS IS
FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED A FEW MORE HRS W/THAT SECOND
SURGE OF WIND MENTIONED ABOVE. SOME OF THE SOUNDING DATA
ESPECIALLY THE NAM SHOW A BRIEF SURGE OF WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY AT THE JONESPORT BUOY(44027). THIS SURGE LOOKS LIKE IT
DROPS OFF AFTER 00Z(8PM) AS WINDS DROP OFF TO 15-20 KTS. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO DOWN TO 2-4 FT.
SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS MAY THEN INCREASE THE SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND AS AN OCEAN STORM TRACKS TO OUR EAST.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1101 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. A BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1100 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS
UPDATE. TWEAKED POPS AND WEATHER TO MATCH THE LATEST HI-RES MODEL
RUNS, WHICH BRING A SWATH OF SHOWERS INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION THIS MORNING
AND THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE
MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. WV
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED ANOTHER SPOKE OF ENERGY THAT WILL AID
THESE SHOWERS TO MOVE SSW TODAY FROM THE MARITIMES. THE LATEST RUN
OF THE 3KM HRRR AND THE NAM MATCHING UP WELL W/THE LATEST
CONDITIONS AS THE GFS. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO INCREASE THE POPS FOR
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS AND EXPAND THE AREAL COVERAGE AS
WELL. TEMPERATURES WERE DOWN IN THE MID 30S IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS W/DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 30S. PRECIP
COULD FALL AS A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN OR EVEN SOME SLEET THIS MORNING
BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM LATER THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE 40S AND 50S BY THE AFTERNOON WILL PRECIP IN THE FORM
OF RAIN. SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE LLVLS
ESPECIALLY IN THE 0-3KM LAYER W/0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS. WINDS
WERE INCREASED TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SETUP.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF INTO EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN
BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LLVL CONVERGENCE AND MID LEVEL
FORCING WEAKEN. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP BACK INTO THE
30S OVERNIGHT W/RAIN FOR THE MOST PART. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL
BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SAY ABOVE 1000 FT AS SOME SNOW COULD MIX
IN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE
LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES W/EASTERN AREAS NEAR THE MAINE-NEW
BRUNSWICK BORDER SEEING UP TO 0.25 INCHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO
LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WE COULD
STILL SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND INTO WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE
EXPECT THE UPPER LOW TO BE REPLACED BY RIDGING BOTH AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGHS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WE
COULD BE LOOKING AT HIGHS REACHING CLOSE TO 70 DEGREES IN SOME
AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR THIS MORNING W/PERIODS OF VFR. MVFR CONDITIONS
FORECAST TO RETURN FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WHILE KBGR AND KBHB ARE EXPECTED TO SEE
CONDITIONS GO TO VFR. ALL TERMINALS TO EXPERIENCE VFR INTO EARLY
TONIGHT AND THEN CONDITIONS COULD DROP BACK TO MVFR BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOWER CIGS MOVING IN FROM NEW BRUNSWICK.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 11 AM UPDATE...HAVE ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO
EXPIRE AS WINDS AND HAVES ARE AT MARGINAL LEVELS AND WILL REMAIN
SO THROUGH THE DAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WINDS/SEAS RIGHT SCA LEVELS AND WINDS TO
PICK UP AFTER 12Z(8AM). THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL STAY AS IS
FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED A FEW MORE HRS W/THAT SECOND
SURGE OF WIND MENTIONED ABOVE. SOME OF THE SOUNDING DATA
ESPECIALLY THE NAM SHOW A BRIEF SURGE OF WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY AT THE JONESPORT BUOY(44027). THIS SURGE LOOKS LIKE IT
DROPS OFF AFTER 00Z(8PM) AS WINDS DROP OFF TO 15-20 KTS. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO DOWN TO 2-4 FT.
SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS MAY THEN INCREASE THE SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND AS AN OCEAN STORM TRACKS TO OUR EAST.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
702 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. A BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
650 AM UPDATE...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS HAD PRES GRADIENT WEAKENING AS
WINDS HAVE SETTLED BACK ATTM. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED ENHANCED
CLOUDS PUSHING WESTWARD THIS MORNING. WIND WILL COME BACK UP AS
THIS FEATURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. ADJUSTED THE SKY AND POPS TO
SHOW SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AREAS. TEMPERATURES WERE
ADJUSTED TO MATCH THE LATEST CONDITIONS.
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION THIS MORNING AND THEN ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. WV SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED ANOTHER
SPOKE OF ENERGY THAT WILL AID THESE SHOWERS TO MOVE SSW TODAY FROM
THE MARITIMES. THE LATEST RUN OF THE 3KM HRRR AND THE NAM MATCHING
UP WELL W/THE LATEST CONDITIONS AS THE GFS. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO
INCREASE THE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS AND EXPAND
THE AREAL COVERAGE AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WERE DOWN IN THE MID 30S
IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS W/DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
30S. PRECIP COULD FALL AS A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN OR EVEN SOME SLEET
THIS MORNING BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM LATER THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 40S AND 50S BY THE AFTERNOON WILL
PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN. SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY IN
THE LLVLS ESPECIALLY IN THE 0-3KM LAYER W/0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 40
KTS. WINDS WERE INCREASED TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SETUP.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF INTO EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN
BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LLVL CONVERGENCE AND MID LEVEL
FORCING WEAKEN. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP BACK INTO THE
30S OVERNIGHT W/RAIN FOR THE MOST PART. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL
BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SAY ABOVE 1000 FT AS SOME SNOW COULD MIX
IN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE
LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES W/EASTERN AREAS NEAR THE MAINE-NEW
BRUNSWICK BORDER SEEING UP TO 0.25 INCHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO
LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WE COULD
STILL SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND INTO WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE
EXPECT THE UPPER LOW TO BE REPLACED BY RIDGING BOTH AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGHS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WE
COULD BE LOOKING AT HIGHS REACHING CLOSE TO 70 DEGREES IN SOME
AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR THIS MORNING W/PERIODS OF VFR. MVFR CONDITIONS
FORECAST TO RETURN FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WHILE KBGR AND KBHB ARE EXPECTED TO SEE
CONDITIONS GO TO VFR. ALL TERMINALS TO EXPERIENCE VFR INTO EARLY
TONIGHT AND THEN CONDITIONS COULD DROP BACK TO MVFR BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOWER CIGS MOVING IN FROM NEW BRUNSWICK.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS RIGHT SCA LEVELS AND WINDS TO PICK UP AFTER
12Z(8AM). THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL STAY AS IS FOR NOW BUT
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED A FEW MORE HRS W/THAT SECOND SURGE OF WIND
MENTIONED ABOVE. SOME OF THE SOUNDING DATA ESPECIALLY THE NAM
SHOW A BRIEF SURGE OF WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY AT THE
JONESPORT BUOY(44027). THIS SURGE LOOKS LIKE IT DROPS OFF AFTER
00Z(8PM) AS WINDS DROP OFF TO 15-20 KTS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DOWN
TO 2-4 FT.
SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS MAY THEN INCREASE THE SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND AS AN OCEAN STORM TRACKS TO OUR EAST.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
329 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. A BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS FOR THIS TERM.
06Z SFC/UPPER ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRES SLOWLY MOVING SE OF NOVA
SCOTIA W/SHOWERS MOVING SSW BUT NOW DISSIPATING. JET MAX OF 40-50
KT FROM 850-700MBS HELPING TO TRIGGER THE SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION THIS MORNING AND THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. WV SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED ANOTHER
SPOKE OF ENERGY THAT WILL AID THESE SHOWERS TO MOVE SSW TODAY FROM
THE MARITIMES. THE LATEST RUN OF THE 3KM HRRR AND THE NAM MATCHING
UP WELL W/THE LATEST CONDITIONS AS THE GFS. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO
INCREASE THE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS AND EXPAND
THE AREAL COVERAGE AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WERE DOWN IN THE MID 30S
IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS W/DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
30S. PRECIP COULD FALL AS A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN OR EVEN SOME SLEET
THIS MORNING BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM LATER THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 40S AND 50S BY THE AFTERNOON WILL
PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN. SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY IN
THE LLVLS ESPECIALLY IN THE 0-3KM LAYER W/0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 40
KTS. WINDS WERE INCREASED TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SETUP.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF INTO EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN
BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LLVL CONVERGENCE AND MID LEVEL
FORCING WEAKEN. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP BACK INTO THE
30S OVERNIGHT W/RAIN FOR THE MOST PART. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL
BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SAY ABOVE 1000 FT AS SOME SNOW COULD MIX
IN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE
LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES W/EASTERN AREAS NEAR THE MAINE-NEW
BRUNSWICK BORDER SEEING UP TO 0.25 INCHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO
LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WE COULD
STILL SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND INTO WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE
EXPECT THE UPPER LOW TO BE REPLACED BY RIDGING BOTH AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGHS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WE
COULD BE LOOKING AT HIGHS REACHING CLOSE TO 70 DEGREES IN SOME
AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR THIS MORNING W/PERIODS OF VFR. MVFR CONDITIONS
FORECAST TO RETURN FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WHILE KBGR AND KBHB ARE EXPECTED TO SEE
CONDITIONS GO TO VFR. ALL TERMINALS TO EXPERIENCE VFR INTO EARLY
TONIGHT AND THEN CONDITIONS COULD DROP BACK TO MVFR BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOWER CIGS MOVING IN FROM NEW BRUNSWICK.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS RIGHT SCA LEVELS AND WINDS TO PICK UP AFTER
12Z(8AM). THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL STAY AS IS FOR NOW BUT
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED A FEW MORE HRS W/THAT SECOND SURGE OF WIND
MENTIONED ABOVE. SOME OF THE SOUNDING DATA ESPECIALLY THE NAM
SHOW A BRIEF SURGE OF WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY AT THE
JONESPORT BUOY(44027). THIS SURGE LOOKS LIKE IT DROPS OFF AFTER
00Z(8PM) AS WINDS DROP OFF TO 15-20 KTS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DOWN
TO 2-4 FT.
SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS MAY THEN INCREASE THE SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND AS AN OCEAN STORM TRACKS TO OUR EAST.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1227 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. A BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1215 AM UPDATE...03Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRES SPINNING SE OF
NOVA SCOTIA AND SLOWLY PULLING AWAY. PRES GRADIENT STILL HOLDING
AND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED
SHOWERS DROPPING SSW FROM NEW BRUNSWICK. THE 3KM HRRR AND NAM12
HAD THE SHOWERS HANDLED WELL AND THE BEST CONVERGENCE IS SHOWN TO
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AREAS OVERNIGHT. POPS WERE
ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SETUP AND RAISED PERCENTAGES FROM NE
MAINE DOWN INTO INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.10". TEMPERATURES COOLING AS THE LATEST
READING ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WERE IN THE UPPER 30S
W/DEWPOINTS DOWN IN THE UPPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. NAM SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT FURTHER COOLING OF THE COLUMN THROUGH 09Z ALLOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN THE RAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST.
FOR TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS PLAGUED THE REGION OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW TOMORROW, BUT WITH THE LOW
SHIFTED FURTHER EAST, MOST OF THE SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WITH THIS
WAVE WILL BE CONFINED TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
IT`LL BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY AS WELL SINCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN FAIRLY COMPACT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STILL A COUPLE OF TURNS AND WEAK SPOKES OF S/WV ENERGY LEFT WITH
A VERY SLOWLY DEPARTING MID LVL VORTEX INTO THE OPEN N ATLC FROM
ERN NOVA SCOTIA...MEANING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHWRS IS POSSIBLE
FROM ENE TO WSW ACROSS THE FA TUE NGT.
AFTWRDS...SLOW...BUT MORE GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO WX CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FA...AT LEAST WITH REGARD TO LITTLE OR NO SHWR ACTIVITY
WED INTO THU...AND AT LEAST A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE AS WEAK FLOW
ALF REPLACES THE UPPER LOW. FCST HI TEMPS...WHICH WE INDICATE TO
BE SLIGHTLY BLO AVG BOTH DAYS MAY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE WE GET...CONSIDERING THE SUN AT
MIDDAY THIS TM OF YEAR IS AS HIGH IN THE SKY AS MID AUG.
OTHERWISE...CLD CVR WILL CONT TO KEEP OVRNGT LOWS TUE NGT AND WED
NGT A LITTLE MILDER THAN AVG.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BOTH THE DTMNSTC 12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH SLOWLY TAKING A SFC LOW TRACKING OFF THE SE COAST
ENE WELL S OF THE GULF OF ME FROM THU NGT INTO SAT. CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY CONT TO SLOWLY IMPROVE...WITH BOTH HI AND LOW TEMPS
GRADUALLY WARMING...SPCLY SUN AND MON WHEN S/WV RIDGING ALF BEGINS
BUILDING OVR NEW ENG AHEAD OF A NEW APCHG S/WV TROF SYSTEM APCHG
FROM THE GREAT LKS. WE CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF SHWRS LATE SUN AFTN
INTO MON MORN MSLY ACROSS THE N WITH SOME S/WV ENERGY TOPPING THE
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...BUT NOTHING LIKE THE TM CVRG THEY OCCURRED
LAST WEEKEND INTO ERLY THIS WEEK...AND WITH LESS WIND AND MUCH
MILDER TEMPS (I.E...SPRINGLIKE...IF WE DARE SAY).
&&
.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR AND OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
AFTERNOON. NORTHERN TERMINALS MAY APPROACH IFR CIGS BUT HAVE KEPT
CIGS AROUND 1500FT FOR NOW. AFTER 18Z, EXPECT CIGS TO RISE TO VFR
CATEGORY. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH NEXT 24 HOURS
OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 22-30KTS DURING THE DAY.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY VFR ALL TAF SITES...XCPT MVFR CLGS WITH
SHWRS POSSIBLE TUE NGT...MSLY NRN TAF SITES.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT DUE TO WIND GUSTS
HAVING INCREASED ABOVE 25KTS SOONER THAN ANTICIPATED. GUSTS
WILL REMAIN AROUND 30 KT WITH WAVES 5 TO 7 FEET EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE A BIT TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WINDS WILL
REMAIN JUST UNDER SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: INITIALLY...NEAR SCA CONDITIONS XPCTD TUE NGT
INTO WED MORN...THE WINDS AND WVS SUBSIDE LATER WED INTO THE LATE
WEEK. THE NEXT POTENTIAL OF SCA CONDITIONS MAY BE LONG PD SWELL
WVS FRI NGT INTO ERLY SUN FROM A RELATIVELY DISTANT SFC LOW
TRACKING EWRD S OF THE GULF OF ME. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE
FOR FCST WV HTS...XCPT WENT A LITTLE BLO GUIDANCE LATE FRI INTO
ERLY SUN MORN ATTM FOR SWELL IMPACTS FROM THE LOW TRACKING WELL S
OF THE WATERS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
359 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SPLITTING WITH ONE SHORTWAVE DIVING SE THROUGH CENTRAL MN AND
ANOTHER MORE SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST THROUGH NRN MN AS IT
APPROACHES LAKE SUPERIOR. THE ENERGY SPLIT RESULTS IN WEAKENING
DYNAMICS OUT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS DEPICTED BY WEAKENING MID-
LVL Q-VECT CONVERGENCE. AND THIS PARTLY EXPLAINS WHY LINE OF SHRA
APPROACHING FM THE WEST IS ALSO WEAKENING AND BREAKING APART AS
NOTED ON REGIONAL RADAR LOOP.
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM MN IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. MODEL Q-VECT CONV INDICATES BEST Q-VECT CONV
SPLITTING NORTH AND SOUTH OF CWA SO WOULD EXPECT WEAKENING TREND TO
CONTINUE WITH APPROACHING LINE OF SHRA THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE DRY
FCST TO CONTINUE ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING NW ONTARIO WL THEN BEGIN DIGGING MORE
SHARPLY TO THE S TONIGHT WITH MODELS SUGGESTING A MID LEVEL LOW
BEGINNING TO CLOSE OFF JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT AN EXPANSION OF PCPN N AND E OF LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT...CLOSER TO GREATEST HEIGHT FALLS. PCPN MAY TRY TO DEVELOP S
INTO ERN UPPER MI...BUT LACK OF DEEP FORCING SUGGESTS MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE THRU THE NIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
30S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
WEDNESDAY...CLOSED LOW AND ASSOC MID-LVL TROF CONTINUES TO DESCEND
SOUTH OVER ERN UPPER MI. 12Z NAM SOUNDING FOR KERY SHOWS SHALLOW LOW-
LVL MOISTURE EXTENDING TO 7-8 KFT BUT REMAINING BELOW -10C ISOTHERM.
WOULD EXPECT ONLY SPRINKLES AT BEST FOR ERN COUNTIES (POSSIBLY AIDED
BY UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW) AS BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING/Q-VECT CONV AND
DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS EAST OF FCST AREA. N WINDS OF 10-15MPH
GUSTING TO 20MPH WILL KEEP LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE LOCATIONS COOL
WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE 40S. FARTHER INLAND HIGHS COULD
REACH INTO THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
OVERALL...LITTLE CHANGES IN THE FORECAST THOUGHTS OVER THE LAST
24HRS...WITH THE REGION SEEING LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH SUNDAY AND A TRANSITION TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THIS
TRANSITION WILL BE LED BY AN UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER WESTERN CANADA. THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA UNDER
ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES AND
SURFACE TROUGHS LEADING TO LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
BEFORE THAT UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT...THE
START OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL SEE A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE 700-500MB LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN AND SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TO THE EAST OF A LINE FROM MUNISING TO MANISTIQUE. IT DID APPEAR
THAT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH NORTHERLY FLOW UPSLOPE HELP TO PRODUCE A
FEW SHOWERS/DRIZZLE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL (NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE
CRYSTALS AND SNOW)...SO DID ADD A MENTION OF RAIN TO THAT AREA FOR
WED NIGHT INTO THURS MORNING. THE DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY MOVE
SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...ALLOWING THE UPPER
RIDGE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN CANADA. THAT WILL LEAD TO DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO THE AREA AND IN TURN DECREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO
EAST ON THURSDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO STILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH WITH THE COOL AIR COMING OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR.
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A NICE START TO THE DAY IN THE U.P. WITH SUNNY
CONDITIONS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S. THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE (SLIDING EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED IN WESTERN
CANADA WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN IN THE AFTERNOON AND
THEN THE REST OF THE CWA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. LIKE THE SHORTWAVE AND FRONT
THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...IT
WILL BE RUNNING INTO EXISTING DRY AIR AND ALSO BECOMING SHEARED OUT.
THUS...EXPECT THE SYSTEM/PRECIPITATION TO DIMINISH AS IT SHIFTS INTO
THE WESTERN U.P. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN DIMINISHING AS IT SHIFTS EAST OVER
THE REST OF THE CWA IN THE EVENING.
BEHIND THAT DISTURBANCE...ZONAL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHERN CONSUS AND EXPECT THAT TO LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT (OVER
THE LAST 6-8 RUNS) WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ON
SATURDAY AT KSAW/KIWD/KIMT AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER FOR SUNDAY.
THUS...WILL TREND THEIR FORECASTS UP TOWARDS THAT IDEA FOR BOTH OF
THOSE DAYS. WITH WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT...SHOULD SEE LAKE BREEZES
DEVELOP ON SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON A DISTURBANCE
FORECAST TO TRACK EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON SATURDAY. AT
THIS POINT...IT LOOKS TO STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT THERE
HAVE BEEN SOME INDICATIONS THAT IT MAY SLIDE NORTH AND AFFECT THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE TO THE EAST
WILL LEAD TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY.
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL COME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SHIFTS EAST
AND INTERACTS WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. WILL FOCUS ON THIS TIME FOR THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES AND TREND POPS UP BEFORE DIMINISHING THEM ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE WAVES DEPART. STILL COULD SEE SOME SHOWER LINGERING
INTO MONDAY NIGHT OR EVEN TUESDAY MORNING DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS DEPARTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
ALTHOUGH A WEAK LOW PRES TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTN AND EVENING...DRY AIR WILL PERSIST IN THE LOWER LEVELS...
ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST OVER 15 KT AT KCMX AND
KSAW ON WED AHEAD OF HIGH PRES BUILDING DOWN FROM HUDSON BAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...UNDER 15KT...AS A VERY WEAK LOW PRES TROF
PASSES THE AREA THIS EVENING. IN ITS WAKE... ANOTHER HIGH PRES WILL
BUILD OVER HUDSON BAY AND EXTEND A RIDGE S INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES
WED/THU. AS THE HIGH BEGINS RIDGING S INTO THE UPPER LAKES LATE
TONIGHT/WED...NNW WINDS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY GUST TO
AROUND 20KT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER THE W. WITH WEAK PRES
GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER LAKES THU THRU SAT...WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT...MOSTLY UNDER 15KT. A LOW PRES TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN BUT IT LOOKS WEAK AS WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BLO
20 KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
318 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 453 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A MID LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM IA TO JAMES BAY...SANDWICHED BTWN A SHORTWAVE TROF
MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND CONTINUED BROAD CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ENCOMPASSING SE CANADA AND THE NE CONUS. THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE IS SUPPORTING SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE UPPER LAKES EARLY THIS
MORNING. TO THE W...APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF IS ACCOMAPANIED BY A
BAND OF SHRA IN NW MN.
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF WILL REACH WRN UPPER MI LATE
AFTN/EVENING. WITH DEEP LAYER FORCING WEAKENING PER QVECTORS...A
LACK OF MOISTURE INFLOW...AND A VERY DRY ANTECEDANT AIR MASS PER 00Z
REGIONAL SOUNDINGS...MOST OF THE MODELS APPEAR ON TRACK SHOWING
APPROACHING PCPN DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING UPPER MI LATE THIS
AFTN/EVENING. SO...PLAN TO MAINTAIN A DRY FCST. SECOND SHORTWAVE NOW
MOVING INTO NRN MANITOBA WILL MOVE INTO NRN ONTARIO AND THEN BEGIN
DIGGING MORE SHARPLY TO THE S TONIGHT WITH MODELS SUGGESTING A MID
LEVEL LOW BEGINNING TO CLOSE OFF JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE
TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AN EXPANSION OF PCPN N AND E OF LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT...CLOSER TO GREATEST HEIGHT FALLS. PCPN MAY TRY TO
DEVELOP S INTO UPPER MI...BUT LACK OF DEEP FORCING HERE SUGGESTS DRY
WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE THRU THE NIGHT.
AS FOR TEMPS...WEAK PRES GRADIENT TODAY WILL ALLOW LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE BOARD...LEADING TO COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG
THE LAKES. IT WILL BE COOLEST IN THE ERN FCST AREA ALONG THE LAKE
SUPERIOR SHORE DUE TO ONSHORE WINDS THRU THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 40S THERE. IN THE INTERIOR...FAVORED THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
GIVEN THAT WARMER GUIDANCE HAS VERIFIED BETTER THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. EXPECT HIGHEST TEMPS IN THE INTERIOR W WHERE MAX READINGS WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. DEEP MIXING IN THE INTERIOR WILL TAP
DRIER AIR ALOFT...RESULTING IN AFTN DWPTS IN THE MID 20S...PERHAPS
LOWER. THIS WILL SEND RH DOWN TO AROUND 20PCT IN THE INTERIOR W.
FROM A FIRE WX STANDOINT...FORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
OVERALL...LITTLE CHANGES IN THE FORECAST THOUGHTS OVER THE LAST
24HRS...WITH THE REGION SEEING LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH SUNDAY AND A TRANSITION TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THIS
TRANSITION WILL BE LED BY AN UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER WESTERN CANADA. THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA UNDER
ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES AND
SURFACE TROUGHS LEADING TO LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
BEFORE THAT UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT...THE
START OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL SEE A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE 700-500MB LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN AND SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TO THE EAST OF A LINE FROM MUNISING TO MANISTIQUE. IT DID APPEAR
THAT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH NORTHERLY FLOW UPSLOPE HELP TO PRODUCE A
FEW SHOWERS/DRIZZLE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL (NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE
CRYSTALS AND SNOW)...SO DID ADD A MENTION OF RAIN TO THAT AREA FOR
WED NIGHT INTO THURS MORNING. THE DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY MOVE
SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...ALLOWING THE UPPER
RIDGE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN CANADA. THAT WILL LEAD TO DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO THE AREA AND IN TURN DECREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO
EAST ON THURSDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO STILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH WITH THE COOL AIR COMING OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR.
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A NICE START TO THE DAY IN THE U.P. WITH SUNNY
CONDITIONS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S. THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE (SLIDING EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED IN WESTERN
CANADA WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN IN THE AFTERNOON AND
THEN THE REST OF THE CWA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. LIKE THE SHORTWAVE AND FRONT
THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...IT
WILL BE RUNNING INTO EXISTING DRY AIR AND ALSO BECOMING SHEARED OUT.
THUS...EXPECT THE SYSTEM/PRECIPITATION TO DIMINISH AS IT SHIFTS INTO
THE WESTERN U.P. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN DIMINISHING AS IT SHIFTS EAST OVER
THE REST OF THE CWA IN THE EVENING.
BEHIND THAT DISTURBANCE...ZONAL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHERN CONSUS AND EXPECT THAT TO LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT (OVER
THE LAST 6-8 RUNS) WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ON
SATURDAY AT KSAW/KIWD/KIMT AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER FOR SUNDAY.
THUS...WILL TREND THEIR FORECASTS UP TOWARDS THAT IDEA FOR BOTH OF
THOSE DAYS. WITH WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT...SHOULD SEE LAKE BREEZES
DEVELOP ON SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON A DISTURBANCE
FORECAST TO TRACK EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON SATURDAY. AT
THIS POINT...IT LOOKS TO STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT THERE
HAVE BEEN SOME INDICATIONS THAT IT MAY SLIDE NORTH AND AFFECT THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE TO THE EAST
WILL LEAD TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY.
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL COME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SHIFTS EAST
AND INTERACTS WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. WILL FOCUS ON THIS TIME FOR THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES AND TREND POPS UP BEFORE DIMINISHING THEM ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE WAVES DEPART. STILL COULD SEE SOME SHOWER LINGERING
INTO MONDAY NIGHT OR EVEN TUESDAY MORNING DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS DEPARTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
ALTHOUGH A WEAK LOW PRES TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTN AND EVENING...DRY AIR WILL PERSIST IN THE LOWER LEVELS...
ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST OVER 15 KT AT KCMX AND
KSAW ON WED AHEAD OF HIGH PRES BUILDING DOWN FROM HUDSON BAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 453 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE LIGHT...UNDER 15KT...THRU THIS
EVENING AS SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA GIVES WAY TO A VERY WEAK LOW
PRES TROF THAT WILL PASS LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. IN ITS WAKE...
ANOTHER HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER HUDSON BAY AND EXTEND A RIDGE S
INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WED/THU. AS THE HIGH BEGINS RIDGING S INTO
THE UPPER LAKES LATE TONIGHT/WED...NNW WINDS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL LIKELY GUST TO AROUND 20KT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER THE W.
WITH WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER LAKES THU THRU SAT...WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT...MOSTLY UNDER 15KT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
156 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 453 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A MID LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM IA TO JAMES BAY...SANDWICHED BTWN A SHORTWAVE TROF
MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND CONTINUED BROAD CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ENCOMPASSING SE CANADA AND THE NE CONUS. THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE IS SUPPORTING SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE UPPER LAKES EARLY THIS
MORNING. TO THE W...APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF IS ACCOMAPANIED BY A
BAND OF SHRA IN NW MN.
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF WILL REACH WRN UPPER MI LATE
AFTN/EVENING. WITH DEEP LAYER FORCING WEAKENING PER QVECTORS...A
LACK OF MOISTURE INFLOW...AND A VERY DRY ANTECEDANT AIR MASS PER 00Z
REGIONAL SOUNDINGS...MOST OF THE MODELS APPEAR ON TRACK SHOWING
APPROACHING PCPN DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING UPPER MI LATE THIS
AFTN/EVENING. SO...PLAN TO MAINTAIN A DRY FCST. SECOND SHORTWAVE NOW
MOVING INTO NRN MANITOBA WILL MOVE INTO NRN ONTARIO AND THEN BEGIN
DIGGING MORE SHARPLY TO THE S TONIGHT WITH MODELS SUGGESTING A MID
LEVEL LOW BEGINNING TO CLOSE OFF JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE
TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AN EXPANSION OF PCPN N AND E OF LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT...CLOSER TO GREATEST HEIGHT FALLS. PCPN MAY TRY TO
DEVELOP S INTO UPPER MI...BUT LACK OF DEEP FORCING HERE SUGGESTS DRY
WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE THRU THE NIGHT.
AS FOR TEMPS...WEAK PRES GRADIENT TODAY WILL ALLOW LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE BOARD...LEADING TO COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG
THE LAKES. IT WILL BE COOLEST IN THE ERN FCST AREA ALONG THE LAKE
SUPERIOR SHORE DUE TO ONSHORE WINDS THRU THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 40S THERE. IN THE INTERIOR...FAVORED THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
GIVEN THAT WARMER GUIDANCE HAS VERIFIED BETTER THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. EXPECT HIGHEST TEMPS IN THE INTERIOR W WHERE MAX READINGS WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. DEEP MIXING IN THE INTERIOR WILL TAP
DRIER AIR ALOFT...RESULTING IN AFTN DWPTS IN THE MID 20S...PERHAPS
LOWER. THIS WILL SEND RH DOWN TO AROUND 20PCT IN THE INTERIOR W.
FROM A FIRE WX STANDOINT...FORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN HARD TO COME BY IN THE LONG TERM AS THE
AREA WILL BE DOMINATED BY A SFC RIDGE AT LEAST THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK.
AN UPPER WAVE WILL TRANSIT THE CENTRAL OR ERN CWA WED INTO WED
NIGHT...BUT WILL BE LACKING MOISTURE SUFFICIENT FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN E AND POSSIBLY SOME SPRINKLES OVER
THE NCENTRAL (AIDED BY UPSLOPE FORCING) WED INTO WED NIGHT. THE NAM
SHOWS THE MOST QPF BUT IT IS ALSO STRONGEST WITH THE WAVE AND HAS
BEEN SUBSTANTIALLY OVERDOING LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE LATELY. N WINDS
OF 10-15MPH GUSTING TO 20MPH WILL KEEP LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE
LOCATIONS COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE 40S. INLAND HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 50S.
SFC RIDGING TAKES MOVES SQUARELY BACK OVER THE CWA ON THU BEFORE
MOVING OUT ON FRI EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THU WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPS TO WED AS N-NE FLOW CONTINUES...BUT SW-W
FLOW AND AN OVERALL MUCH WARMER AIRMASS ON FRI WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 50S E AND THE 60S W. THANKFULLY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
ON FRI...WHICH WILL HELP OFFSET FIRE RISK AS RH VALUES DROP INTO THE
20-30 PERCENT RANGE. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE FAR
W LATE FRI AS DYING SHORTWAVE MOVES TOWARD THE CWA WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE CWA SAT THROUGH
MON...BUT PRECIP POTENTIAL ON SAT LOOKS LOW. FOR SUN AND
MON...BETTER MOISTURE ALONG WITH STRONGER SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND
BETTER WAA FORCING WILL MAKE FOR BETTER PRECIP CHANCES. EXACT
AMOUNTS/TIMING IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS HARD TO PIN
DOWN AT THAT TIME RANGE. DOES LOOK LIKE TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE 70S
IN SOME SPOTS SAT INTO MON...BUT THAT IS ALSO DEPENDENT ON SHORTWAVE
TRACK/PRECIP/CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
ALTHOUGH A WEAK LOW PRES TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTN AND EVENING...DRY AIR WILL PERSIST IN THE LOWER LEVELS...
ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST OVER 15 KT AT KCMX AND
KSAW ON WED AHEAD OF HIGH PRES BUILDING DOWN FROM HUDSON BAY.
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 453 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE LIGHT...UNDER 15KT...THRU THIS
EVENING AS SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA GIVES WAY TO A VERY WEAK LOW
PRES TROF THAT WILL PASS LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. IN ITS WAKE...
ANOTHER HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER HUDSON BAY AND EXTEND A RIDGE S
INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WED/THU. AS THE HIGH BEGINS RIDGING S INTO
THE UPPER LAKES LATE TONIGHT/WED...NNW WINDS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL LIKELY GUST TO AROUND 20KT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER THE W.
WITH WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER LAKES THU THRU SAT...WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT...MOSTLY UNDER 15KT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
706 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 453 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A MID LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM IA TO JAMES BAY...SANDWICHED BTWN A SHORTWAVE TROF
MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND CONTINUED BROAD CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ENCOMPASSING SE CANADA AND THE NE CONUS. THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE IS SUPPORTING SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE UPPER LAKES EARLY THIS
MORNING. TO THE W...APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF IS ACCOMAPANIED BY A
BAND OF SHRA IN NW MN.
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF WILL REACH WRN UPPER MI LATE
AFTN/EVENING. WITH DEEP LAYER FORCING WEAKENING PER QVECTORS...A
LACK OF MOISTURE INFLOW...AND A VERY DRY ANTECEDANT AIR MASS PER 00Z
REGIONAL SOUNDINGS...MOST OF THE MODELS APPEAR ON TRACK SHOWING
APPROACHING PCPN DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING UPPER MI LATE THIS
AFTN/EVENING. SO...PLAN TO MAINTAIN A DRY FCST. SECOND SHORTWAVE NOW
MOVING INTO NRN MANITOBA WILL MOVE INTO NRN ONTARIO AND THEN BEGIN
DIGGING MORE SHARPLY TO THE S TONIGHT WITH MODELS SUGGESTING A MID
LEVEL LOW BEGINNING TO CLOSE OFF JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE
TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AN EXPANSION OF PCPN N AND E OF LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT...CLOSER TO GREATEST HEIGHT FALLS. PCPN MAY TRY TO
DEVELOP S INTO UPPER MI...BUT LACK OF DEEP FORCING HERE SUGGESTS DRY
WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE THRU THE NIGHT.
AS FOR TEMPS...WEAK PRES GRADIENT TODAY WILL ALLOW LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE BOARD...LEADING TO COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG
THE LAKES. IT WILL BE COOLEST IN THE ERN FCST AREA ALONG THE LAKE
SUPERIOR SHORE DUE TO ONSHORE WINDS THRU THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 40S THERE. IN THE INTERIOR...FAVORED THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
GIVEN THAT WARMER GUIDANCE HAS VERIFIED BETTER THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. EXPECT HIGHEST TEMPS IN THE INTERIOR W WHERE MAX READINGS WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. DEEP MIXING IN THE INTERIOR WILL TAP
DRIER AIR ALOFT...RESULTING IN AFTN DWPTS IN THE MID 20S...PERHAPS
LOWER. THIS WILL SEND RH DOWN TO AROUND 20PCT IN THE INTERIOR W.
FROM A FIRE WX STANDOINT...FORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN HARD TO COME BY IN THE LONG TERM AS THE
AREA WILL BE DOMINATED BY A SFC RIDGE AT LEAST THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK.
AN UPPER WAVE WILL TRANSIT THE CENTRAL OR ERN CWA WED INTO WED
NIGHT...BUT WILL BE LACKING MOISTURE SUFFICIENT FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN E AND POSSIBLY SOME SPRINKLES OVER
THE NCENTRAL (AIDED BY UPSLOPE FORCING) WED INTO WED NIGHT. THE NAM
SHOWS THE MOST QPF BUT IT IS ALSO STRONGEST WITH THE WAVE AND HAS
BEEN SUBSTANTIALLY OVERDOING LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE LATELY. N WINDS
OF 10-15MPH GUSTING TO 20MPH WILL KEEP LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE
LOCATIONS COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE 40S. INLAND HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 50S.
SFC RIDGING TAKES MOVES SQUARELY BACK OVER THE CWA ON THU BEFORE
MOVING OUT ON FRI EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THU WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPS TO WED AS N-NE FLOW CONTINUES...BUT SW-W
FLOW AND AN OVERALL MUCH WARMER AIRMASS ON FRI WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 50S E AND THE 60S W. THANKFULLY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
ON FRI...WHICH WILL HELP OFFSET FIRE RISK AS RH VALUES DROP INTO THE
20-30 PERCENT RANGE. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE FAR
W LATE FRI AS DYING SHORTWAVE MOVES TOWARD THE CWA WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE CWA SAT THROUGH
MON...BUT PRECIP POTENTIAL ON SAT LOOKS LOW. FOR SUN AND
MON...BETTER MOISTURE ALONG WITH STRONGER SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND
BETTER WAA FORCING WILL MAKE FOR BETTER PRECIP CHANCES. EXACT
AMOUNTS/TIMING IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS HARD TO PIN
DOWN AT THAT TIME RANGE. DOES LOOK LIKE TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE 70S
IN SOME SPOTS SAT INTO MON...BUT THAT IS ALSO DEPENDENT ON SHORTWAVE
TRACK/PRECIP/CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 706 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
ALTHOUGH A WEAK LOW PRES TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTN AND EVENING...DRY AIR WILL PERSIST IN THE LOWER LEVELS...
ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 453 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE LIGHT...UNDER 15KT...THRU THIS
EVENING AS SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA GIVES WAY TO A VERY WEAK LOW
PRES TROF THAT WILL PASS LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. IN ITS WAKE...
ANOTHER HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER HUDSON BAY AND EXTEND A RIDGE S
INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WED/THU. AS THE HIGH BEGINS RIDGING S INTO
THE UPPER LAKES LATE TONIGHT/WED...NNW WINDS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL LIKELY GUST TO AROUND 20KT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER THE W.
WITH WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER LAKES THU THRU SAT...WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT...MOSTLY UNDER 15KT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
455 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 453 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A MID LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM IA TO JAMES BAY...SANDWICHED BTWN A SHORTWAVE TROF
MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND CONTINUED BROAD CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ENCOMPASSING SE CANADA AND THE NE CONUS. THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE IS SUPPORTING SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE UPPER LAKES EARLY THIS
MORNING. TO THE W...APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF IS ACCOMAPANIED BY A
BAND OF SHRA IN NW MN.
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF WILL REACH WRN UPPER MI LATE
AFTN/EVENING. WITH DEEP LAYER FORCING WEAKENING PER QVECTORS...A
LACK OF MOISTURE INFLOW...AND A VERY DRY ANTECEDANT AIR MASS PER 00Z
REGIONAL SOUNDINGS...MOST OF THE MODELS APPEAR ON TRACK SHOWING
APPROACHING PCPN DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING UPPER MI LATE THIS
AFTN/EVENING. SO...PLAN TO MAINTAIN A DRY FCST. SECOND SHORTWAVE NOW
MOVING INTO NRN MANITOBA WILL MOVE INTO NRN ONTARIO AND THEN BEGIN
DIGGING MORE SHARPLY TO THE S TONIGHT WITH MODELS SUGGESTING A MID
LEVEL LOW BEGINNING TO CLOSE OFF JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE
TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AN EXPANSION OF PCPN N AND E OF LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT...CLOSER TO GREATEST HEIGHT FALLS. PCPN MAY TRY TO
DEVELOP S INTO UPPER MI...BUT LACK OF DEEP FORCING HERE SUGGESTS DRY
WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE THRU THE NIGHT.
AS FOR TEMPS...WEAK PRES GRADIENT TODAY WILL ALLOW LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE BOARD...LEADING TO COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG
THE LAKES. IT WILL BE COOLEST IN THE ERN FCST AREA ALONG THE LAKE
SUPERIOR SHORE DUE TO ONSHORE WINDS THRU THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 40S THERE. IN THE INTERIOR...FAVORED THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
GIVEN THAT WARMER GUIDANCE HAS VERIFIED BETTER THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. EXPECT HIGHEST TEMPS IN THE INTERIOR W WHERE MAX READINGS WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. DEEP MIXING IN THE INTERIOR WILL TAP
DRIER AIR ALOFT...RESULTING IN AFTN DWPTS IN THE MID 20S...PERHAPS
LOWER. THIS WILL SEND RH DOWN TO AROUND 20PCT IN THE INTERIOR W.
FROM A FIRE WX STANDOINT...FORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN HARD TO COME BY IN THE LONG TERM AS THE
AREA WILL BE DOMINATED BY A SFC RIDGE AT LEAST THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK.
AN UPPER WAVE WILL TRANSIT THE CENTRAL OR ERN CWA WED INTO WED
NIGHT...BUT WILL BE LACKING MOISTURE SUFFICIENT FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN E AND POSSIBLY SOME SPRINKLES OVER
THE NCENTRAL (AIDED BY UPSLOPE FORCING) WED INTO WED NIGHT. THE NAM
SHOWS THE MOST QPF BUT IT IS ALSO STRONGEST WITH THE WAVE AND HAS
BEEN SUBSTANTIALLY OVERDOING LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE LATELY. N WINDS
OF 10-15MPH GUSTING TO 20MPH WILL KEEP LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE
LOCATIONS COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE 40S. INLAND HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 50S.
SFC RIDGING TAKES MOVES SQUARELY BACK OVER THE CWA ON THU BEFORE
MOVING OUT ON FRI EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THU WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPS TO WED AS N-NE FLOW CONTINUES...BUT SW-W
FLOW AND AN OVERALL MUCH WARMER AIRMASS ON FRI WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 50S E AND THE 60S W. THANKFULLY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
ON FRI...WHICH WILL HELP OFFSET FIRE RISK AS RH VALUES DROP INTO THE
20-30 PERCENT RANGE. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE FAR
W LATE FRI AS DYING SHORTWAVE MOVES TOWARD THE CWA WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE CWA SAT THROUGH
MON...BUT PRECIP POTENTIAL ON SAT LOOKS LOW. FOR SUN AND
MON...BETTER MOISTURE ALONG WITH STRONGER SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND
BETTER WAA FORCING WILL MAKE FOR BETTER PRECIP CHANCES. EXACT
AMOUNTS/TIMING IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS HARD TO PIN
DOWN AT THAT TIME RANGE. DOES LOOK LIKE TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE 70S
IN SOME SPOTS SAT INTO MON...BUT THAT IS ALSO DEPENDENT ON SHORTWAVE
TRACK/PRECIP/CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WITH DAYTIME
LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS DOMINATING WINDS AND WIND DIRECTIONS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 453 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE LIGHT...UNDER 15KT...THRU THIS
EVENING AS SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA GIVES WAY TO A VERY WEAK LOW
PRES TROF THAT WILL PASS LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. IN ITS WAKE...
ANOTHER HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER HUDSON BAY AND EXTEND A RIDGE S
INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WED/THU. AS THE HIGH BEGINS RIDGING S INTO
THE UPPER LAKES LATE TONIGHT/WED...NNW WINDS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL LIKELY GUST TO AROUND 20KT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER THE W.
WITH WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER LAKES THU THRU SAT...WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT...MOSTLY UNDER 15KT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
307 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO SRN JAMES BAY. TO THE E...A MID
LEVEL LOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES/NRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST EXTENDS BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND WRAPS SOME MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE UPPER LAKES. AS OF 19Z...W EDGE OF THE STRATOCU DECK
FM THIS MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW RUNS FROM ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE FAR
ERN COUNTIES OF UPPER MI. CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED INTO CENTRAL UPPER
MI THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT WITH THE MID-LVL AND SFC HIGH
PRES RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR EXCEPT
PARTLY CLOUDY EAST WHERE THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE FOR CLOUDS ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRES TROUGH AT
LEAST INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TONIGHT TO DROP INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE INTERIOR WEST WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL MAXIMIZED DUE TO CALM WINDS UNDER AXIS OF SFC RIDGE AND PWATS
OF .25 INCH OR LESS. ELSEWHERE MIN TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 30S.
ON TUESDAY...MODELS INDICATE SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NRN
PLAINS BUT SHOW BEST Q-VECT CONV AND MID-LVL MOISTURE ASSOC WITH
SHORTWAVE GENERALLY LIFTING NORTH AND WEST OF UPPER MI. MODELS HINT
THAT PERHAPS THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA COULD SEE SOME
SPRINKLES/-SHRA TUE EVENING. BUT GIVEN THE DRYNESS OF THE AIR MASS
ALREADY IN PLACE WL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FCST THROUGH 00Z WED BUT
REFLECT EXPECTED INCREASE IN MID-LVL CLOUDS ALONG WEAK COLD-FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN GRIDS. HIGH TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST COULD REACH
INTO THE MID 60S...BUT DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS UNDER
WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER (IN THE 50S) ALONG THE
GREAT LAKES AND EAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN HARD TO COME BY IN THE LONG TERM AS THE
AREA WILL BE DOMINATED BY A SFC RIDGE AT LEAST THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK.
AN UPPER WAVE WILL TRANSIT THE CENTRAL OR ERN CWA WED INTO WED
NIGHT...BUT WILL BE LACKING MOISTURE SUFFICIENT FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN E AND POSSIBLY SOME SPRINKLES OVER
THE NCENTRAL (AIDED BY UPSLOPE FORCING) WED INTO WED NIGHT. THE NAM
SHOWS THE MOST QPF BUT IT IS ALSO STRONGEST WITH THE WAVE AND HAS
BEEN SUBSTANTIALLY OVERDOING LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE LATELY. N WINDS
OF 10-15MPH GUSTING TO 20MPH WILL KEEP LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE
LOCATIONS COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE 40S. INLAND HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 50S.
SFC RIDGING TAKES MOVES SQUARELY BACK OVER THE CWA ON THU BEFORE
MOVING OUT ON FRI EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THU WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPS TO WED AS N-NE FLOW CONTINUES...BUT SW-W
FLOW AND AN OVERALL MUCH WARMER AIRMASS ON FRI WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 50S E AND THE 60S W. THANKFULLY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
ON FRI...WHICH WILL HELP OFFSET FIRE RISK AS RH VALUES DROP INTO THE
20-30 PERCENT RANGE. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE FAR
W LATE FRI AS DYING SHORTWAVE MOVES TOWARD THE CWA WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE CWA SAT THROUGH
MON...BUT PRECIP POTENTIAL ON SAT LOOKS LOW. FOR SUN AND
MON...BETTER MOISTURE ALONG WITH STRONGER SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND
BETTER WAA FORCING WILL MAKE FOR BETTER PRECIP CHANCES. EXACT
AMOUNTS/TIMING IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS HARD TO PIN
DOWN AT THAT TIME RANGE. DOES LOOK LIKE TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE 70S
IN SOME SPOTS SAT INTO MON...BUT THAT IS ALSO DEPENDENT ON SHORTWAVE
TRACK/PRECIP/CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WITH DAYTIME
LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS DOMINATING WINDS AND WIND DIRECTIONS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015
AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS E ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL FALL OFF TO MOSTLY UNDER 10KT ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE. ON
TUE...WINDS WILL BE UNDER 15KT AS THE RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A WEAK LOW
PRES TROF THAT PASSES TUE NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...ANOTHER HIGH PRES
WILL RIDGE S FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WED/THU. AS
THE HIGH BEGINS RIDGING S INTO THE UPPER LAKES WED...WINDS OVER ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY GUST TO NEAR 20KT ONCE AGAIN. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER OVER THE W. WITH WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER LAKES
THU INTO SAT...WIND SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNDER 15KT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
129 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO SRN JAMES BAY. TO THE E...A MID
LEVEL LOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES/NRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST EXTENDS BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND WRAPS SOME MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE UPPER LAKES. AS OF 19Z...W EDGE OF THE STRATOCU DECK
FM THIS MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW RUNS FROM ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE FAR
ERN COUNTIES OF UPPER MI. CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED INTO CENTRAL UPPER
MI THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT WITH THE MID-LVL AND SFC HIGH
PRES RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR EXCEPT
PARTLY CLOUDY EAST WHERE THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE FOR CLOUDS ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRES TROUGH AT
LEAST INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TONIGHT TO DROP INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE INTERIOR WEST WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL MAXIMIZED DUE TO CALM WINDS UNDER AXIS OF SFC RIDGE AND PWATS
OF .25 INCH OR LESS. ELSEWHERE MIN TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 30S.
ON TUESDAY...MODELS INDICATE SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NRN
PLAINS BUT SHOW BEST Q-VECT CONV AND MID-LVL MOISTURE ASSOC WITH
SHORTWAVE GENERALLY LIFTING NORTH AND WEST OF UPPER MI. MODELS HINT
THAT PERHAPS THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA COULD SEE SOME
SPRINKLES/-SHRA TUE EVENING. BUT GIVEN THE DRYNESS OF THE AIR MASS
ALREADY IN PLACE WL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FCST THROUGH 00Z WED BUT
REFLECT EXPECTED INCREASE IN MID-LVL CLOUDS ALONG WEAK COLD-FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN GRIDS. HIGH TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST COULD REACH
INTO THE MID 60S...BUT DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS UNDER
WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER (IN THE 50S) ALONG THE
GREAT LAKES AND EAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015
A RIDGE (FROM HIGH PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA) WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES EVEN AS SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
THE FIRST WAVE AND DECAYING COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE CWA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD (TUESDAY NIGHT)...BUT MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIMITED AND THE BEST MID LEVEL FORCING SLIDES TO
THE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AT THIS POINT...DIDN/T FEEL STRONGLY
ENOUGH TO ADD ANY POPS IN FOR THE LAND AREAS (KEPT OVER NRN
LAKE SUPERIOR)...BUT IT MAY BE A SITUATION WHERE WE MIGHT HAVE TO
ADD SOME SPRINKLES TO THE FORECAST OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THAT FIRST WAVE...ANOTHER WAVE (CURRENTLY
ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE IN NORTHERN ALBERTA) WILL DIVE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND AFFECTING THE
EASTERN U.P. ON WEDNESDAY. ONCE AGAIN...WITH LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH...ANY PRECIP WILL BE TIED TO THE MOISTURE INDICATED
BELOW 850MB ON THE MODELS. THERE IS SOME LIFT IN THAT REGION...TIED
TO THE POCKET OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...BUT WOULDN/T
EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN CLOUDS AND A FEW SPRINKLES. WITH THIS WAVE
LOOKING MUCH STRONGER THAN THE FIRST...WILL ADD SOME SPRINKLES OVER
THE EAST AND NORTH CENTRAL (WHICH MAY HAVE SOME UPSLOPE HELP) FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AN UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING EAST ON
FRIDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY WILL KEEP TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL AS CLOUDS DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. THEN...AS WINDS
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES RISE TO
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES UNDER DEEP MIXING (TO 800-750MB) AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES EAST AND PARTLY CLOUDY WEST. FORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND OFFSET THE LOWER RH (UPPER 20S TO MID 30S) AS THE
U.P. IS IN ITS CRITICAL TIME BEFORE GREEN-UP.
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING EAST...THE REGION WILL TRANSITION TO
ZONAL FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND POTENTIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK. THAT
WILL PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED
SHORTWAVES BRUSH THE AREA. TIMING THESE WAVES IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT
IN THESE SITUATIONS...SO WILL SHOW SOME SLIGHT CHANCES (ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WEST) ASSOCIATED WITH TWO WAVES QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SUNDAY LOOKS
DRY AT THIS POINT...WITH ANOTHER WAVE POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THIS
WAVE...WHETHER IT STAYS NORTH OR MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BUT THERE
THEY INDICATE ENOUGH BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION TO SUPPORT
SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WITH DAYTIME
LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS DOMINATING WINDS AND WIND DIRECTIONS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015
AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS E ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL FALL OFF TO MOSTLY UNDER 10KT ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE. ON
TUE...WINDS WILL BE UNDER 15KT AS THE RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A WEAK LOW
PRES TROF THAT PASSES TUE NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...ANOTHER HIGH PRES
WILL RIDGE S FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WED/THU. AS
THE HIGH BEGINS RIDGING S INTO THE UPPER LAKES WED...WINDS OVER ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY GUST TO NEAR 20KT ONCE AGAIN. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER OVER THE W. WITH WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER LAKES
THU INTO SAT...WIND SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNDER 15KT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
330 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
AT 330 PM...A VARIETY OF WEATHER WAS OCCURRING ACROSS THE CWA.
SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT
THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER TODAY. THE 4KM NMM WRF...AS WELL AS
THE 18Z NAM AND THE HRRR ALL INDICATED THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE LINGERING
BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THE VORT MAX
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST AS THE EVENING WEARS ON...BRINGING AN END TO THE THREAT
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. TEMPS OVERNIGHT
WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE 30S WITH A FEW 20S POSSIBLE IN LOW
LYING LOCATIONS. OVERALL...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT.
ON WEDNESDAY...A CLOSED LOW WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE LAKE
SUPERIOR REGION BY EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE A BACK DOOR SURFACE
COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTHEAST. HIGHS WILL
ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE 60S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
MILD TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE. THERE WILL BE A WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR
RAIN ON FRIDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS SHIFTS
TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW LEADING TO WEAK FAST-MOVING IMPULSES MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION.
THURSDAY...DRY AND MILD UNDER A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. LIGHT WINDS
WILL PREVENT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM DEVELOPING...BUT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY FALL TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON. MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS MID 60S TO NEAR 70S INLAND...WITH A
LAKE BREEZE LIMITING TEMPS TO THE 50S BY LAKE SUPERIOR...PERHAPS AS
COLD AS THE MID 40S ALONG THE NORTH SHORE FROM SILVER BAY NORTH.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN
FRIDAY...MOVING ACROSS FROM WEST TO EAST SIMILAR TO TODAY /TUES/
BUT WITH MORE INTENSE RAINFALL. TOTAL PRECIP WILL AMOUNT TO AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH. ECMWF/GEM A BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS...BUT IN
GENERALLY THINK THE RAIN WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA IN THE
MORNING INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN IN THE AFTERNOON. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT NEAR FREEZING WHERE SKIES REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT IN THE
ARROWHEAD REGION...ELSEWHERE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S. HIGHS
COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 50S BY THE LAKE TO MID
60S ELSEWHERE.
SAT/SUN/MON/TUES...BEHIND THIS FRONT ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS AT MID/UPPER LEVELS RESULTING A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR PRECIP MOST DAYS...BUT NO DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE A TOTAL
WASHOUT. AT THIS POINT SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL...BUT WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN IT IS
DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN TIMING OF ANY INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM. TEMPS WARM
DUE TO SOME LOW LEVEL RIDGING THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...IN THE 60S BY LAKE
SUPERIOR. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS...IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
MVFR CEILINGS AT BRD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AREA OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT
RAIN HAS WEAKENED AS IT MOVED EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
THIS MORNING PER VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR. DRY AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT HAS ERODED MUCH OF THE LOWER STRATUS DECK...WITH THE CHANCE
FOR SOME STRATUS TO REACH BRD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON CAUSING A FEW
HOURS OF MVFR CEILINGS.
A SECOND ROUND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON SO INCLUDED A MENTION OF VCSH AT HYR...BUT
AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP EAST OF HYR AROUND
THE LATE AFTERNOON...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...BECOMING
NEAR-CALM OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 37 64 35 55 / 10 10 0 0
INL 32 65 35 68 / 10 10 0 0
BRD 34 70 39 68 / 0 0 0 0
HYR 38 65 34 61 / 20 0 0 0
ASX 36 62 33 55 / 0 10 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
308 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA BY MID
AFTERNOON...AND EXTENDED FROM NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AS OF THIS WRITING...AND IS WORKING INTO WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. WINDS HAVE BECOME GENERALLY NORTH OR NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT AND WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
AND FLUCTUATE FOLLOWING A DIURNAL TREND FROM 5-15 MPH. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK EASTWARD AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.
OTHERWISE...A QUIET PERIOD AHEAD AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE DAKOTAS. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR ALEXANDRIA AND WORKING THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES AROUND
9PM...AND THROUGH EAU CLAIRE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BEHIND THE
CLEARING...DRIER AIR WILL SURGE IN WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE
LOW 30S...SO OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS WESTERN MN STILL LOOK TO FALL
INTO THE MID 30S...BUT A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS MAY APPROACH THE
FREEZING MARK IF WINDS GO CALM OVERNIGHT. FOR TOMORROW...CLEAR
SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING QUICKLY IN THE MORNING AND HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 70S IN WESTERN MINNESOTA...TO UPPER 60S IN
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
LONG TERM TRENDS WILL DEPEND UPON ON THE ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER
JET STREAM AND ASSOCIATED EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES THRU NEXT WEEK.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY WILL BE CONTROLLED BY THE DEPARTING UPPER
LOW THAT WILL BE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INITIALLY...THEN DIVING
S/SE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE SE CONUS BY FRIDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON STATE WILL MOVE
EASTWARD...WHICH WILL INITIALLY SLOW AND WEAKEN BEFORE THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW DEPARTS TO THE S/SE. EVENTUALLY THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY FRIDAY/FRIDAY
AFTN. SFC CONVERGENCE IS WEAK/OR WEAKENS AS THE COLD FRONT/SHORT
WAVE ENCOUNTERS THE CONFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT. ONCE A STRONGER JET
STREAK MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY...THE UPPER FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE W/NW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE
REMAINS ENOUGH CONTINUITY WITH A NARROW BAND OF SHRA TO CONTINUE
CHC POPS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THRU THE
UPPER MIDWEST.
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS THE MEAN UPPER FLOW REMAINS W/WNW AND
STRENGTHENS SOME...ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THIS TIME...MOISTURE IS DEEPER AND ALLOWS FOR A MORE CONCENTRATED
AREA OF SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTN AS
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS MAXIMIZE. SHEAR VALUES /0-6KM/ REMAINED
UNFAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...BUT IT NEEDS TO BE WATCHED
BASED ON SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE EC/GFS ON THE FRONT POSITION AND
OVERALL UPPER FLOW.
THE 85H OF THE 5-DAY MEAN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD /MAY 4-MAY 12/
HAS TRENDED TOWARD A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN AS AN 85H RIDGE BEGINS
TO HOLD IN THE SE CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. LEADING TOWARD DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTING
NORTHWARD AND POSSIBLY A BETTER CHC OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
THE BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL MN WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS IT ENTERS WEST CENTRAL WI THIS AFTERNOON.
ASSOCIATED CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW-END VFR
CATEGORY. THE MAIN SITE TO EXPERIENCE NOTABLE REDUCTIONS TO IFR
WILL BE KAXN...UNTIL MID AFTERNOON WHEN RUC 0.5KM AGL
CONDENSATIONAL PRESSURE DEFICITS INDICATE IMPROVEMENT. BY
00Z...ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR WITH ONLY FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 10KFT.
WINDS WILL BE NNW AROUND 10-12KTS TODAY...THEN BECOME LIGHT NNE
THIS EVE INTO WEDNESDAY.
KMSP...
MAIN WINDOW FOR SHOWERS IS BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z...WITH A LIGHTNING
STRIKE OR TWO POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FIELD DURING THAT
TIME AS WELL. CIGS AROUND 5KFT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING THIS
EVE.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED NIGHT...VFR. WINDS ENE 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS E 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WINDS S 10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...LS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1231 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
A COLD FRONT BISECTS THE STATE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST EARLY
THIS MORNING. A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN EXISTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FROM NORTH CENTRAL MN THROUGH EAST CENTRAL SD ASSOCIATED WITH A
BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. MULTIPLE WRF FORECASTS INDICATE
THE BAND OF LIGHT RAIN WEAKENING...WITH A FEW MEMBERS EVEN SHOWING
DISSIPATION THIS MORNING...AS IT HEADS INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
AREAS OF MN. THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE FORECAST WEAKENING OF THE
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS/THERMAL GRADIENT. HOWEVER...THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING TIME PERIODS ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT. EVEN
THOUGH THERE IS SOME WEAKENING FORECAST THIS MORNING...EASTERN MN
AND WESTERN WI WILL BE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 250MB JET
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH BEING UNDER THE SHORT WAVE/COLD TROUGH
AT 500 MB. NSHARP PROFILES FROM THE NAM AND GFS SHOW RATHER STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OCCURRING. THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK FORCING
AND LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD YIELD ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
TWIN CITIES...WITH THE ACTIVITY WORKING INTO WEST CENTRAL WI AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MN BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN DISSIPATING
EARLY THIS EVENING. HENCE...FOLLOWED THE IDEA OF THE NSSL WRF AND
NCAR ENSEMBLE WRF. THE LATTER SHOWS THAT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
SPREAD IN THE SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CAN BE
SEEN QUITE WELL IN THE NCAR ENSEMBLE SOUNDING FOR KMSP. IF ONE
WERE TO REMOVE A FEW OF THE DRIER PROFILES...THE SOUNDING WOULD
HAVE A BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PROFILE. THEREFORE...USED SOME
20/30 POPS FOR TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE MN CWA AND ADJOINING AREAS
OF WESTERN WI. A CONCERN TODAY IS THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST
DUE TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ALONG WITH
SOME SHOWERS. WENT A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...BUT THIS MAY STILL BE TOO WARM AND MAY NEED TO BE
TWEAKED FURTHER THIS MORNING. CLEARING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THE LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST LOOKED TOO WARM OVER OUR WESTERN CWA DUE TO DEW POINTS
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. USED A BLEND OF
BCCONSRAW AND GEMNHBC WHICH BROUGHT LOWS DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 30S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MN.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
THE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE A DECIDEDLY MORE SUMMER-LIKE UPPER AIR
PATTERN...ONCE THE DEEP AND PERSISTENT ERN NOAM UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO
THE ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND...SETTING UP A WAVY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
NRN CONUS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE LONG TERM WILL START WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
PLAINS AS AN UPPER LOW DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON
THE WRN EDGE OF THE ERN NOAM UPPER LOW. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS WRN WI ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH ANY
INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHOWERS BENEATH THE UPPER COLD POOL LOOK TO STAY
OVER ERN WI. THIS FEATURE MOVES TOWARD INDIANA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...TAKING THE CLOUD COVER WITH IT. AT THE SFC...DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DEEP
MIXING IS EXPECTED BOTH DAYS...AND AS WE HAVE SEEN THROUGHOUT THIS
SPRING...THIS CALLS FOR LOWERING DEWPOINTS BELOW GUIDANCE AND
FAVORING BIAS CORRECTED FORECASTS FOR HIGHS...WHICH WAS DONE BOTH
DAYS.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH MAINLY MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES
NOTED. UNLIKE TODAYS FRONT...THIS FRONT WILL MAINTAIN BETTER
DEFINITION COMING INTO MN...WITH RAINFALL CHANCES LOOKING MORE
LIKELY WITH THIS FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...LIKE
TODAYS FRONT...IT WILL BE WASHING OUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
SHORTWAVE BECOMES SHEARED OUT...MEANING RAINFALL CHANCES ARE BETTER
TO THE WEST AS OPPOSED TO THE EAST. DID RAISE POPS INTO THE HIGH
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR WRN MN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS MODEL AGREEMENT IS
LOOKING BETTER ON RAIN MOVING INTO THE WEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. DID
REMOVE THUNDER WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW NO INSTABILITY PRESENT WITH THE WAVE AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP...WE WILL SEE A PLUME
OF RATHER MILD H85 AIR MOVE INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF
FRIDAYS SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF CONTINUING TO SHOW H85 TEMPS IN
EXCESS OF +12C. DID ADD SOME BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GRIDS INTO THE
INITIAL CENTRAL REGION BLEND FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY TO GET MORE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE GRIDS FOR SATURDAY...WHICH LOOKS TO OFFER
SOME SUNNY SKIES BEFORE THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT. AS
FOR THAT WARM FRONT...THOUGH SPREAD IS TYPICAL OF WHAT YOU WOULD
EXPECT THIS FAR OUT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE
GFS/GEM/ECMWF ALL AGREE ON THE GENERAL IDEA OF A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT OR SFC
LOW PASSAGE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE BRINGING
UP SOME MODIFIED TROPICAL AIR...WITH DEWPS LIKELY INTO THE
60S...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY FOR THE
SYSTEM COMING THROUGH SUNDAY. THOUGH KINEMATIC FIELDS ARE MARGINAL
FOR ANY SORT OF SEVER POTENTIAL...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY LOOKS TO
EXIST TO GIVE US A GOOD SHOT AT SOME THUNDERSTORMS. AS A
RESULT...HAVE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CHANCE POPS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE THUNDER WORDING MORE THAN WARRANTED IN THE FORECAST
THIS TIME AROUND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
THE BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL MN WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS IT ENTERS WEST CENTRAL WI THIS AFTERNOON.
ASSOCIATED CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW-END VFR
CATEGORY. THE MAIN SITE TO EXPERIENCE NOTABLE REDUCTIONS TO IFR
WILL BE KAXN...UNTIL MID AFTERNOON WHEN RUC 0.5KM AGL
CONDENSATIONAL PRESSURE DEFICITS INDICATE IMPROVEMENT. BY
00Z...ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR WITH ONLY FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 10KFT.
WINDS WILL BE NNW AROUND 10-12KTS TODAY...THEN BECOME LIGHT NNE
THIS EVE INTO WEDNESDAY.
KMSP...
MAIN WINDOW FOR SHOWERS IS BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z...WITH A LIGHTNING
STRIKE OR TWO POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FIELD DURING THAT
TIME AS WELL. CIGS AROUND 5KFT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING THIS
EVE.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED NIGHT...VFR. WINDS ENE 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS E 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WINDS S 10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...LS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1147 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS BASICALLY ON TRACK. HOWEVER WARMING
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA HAS BEEN SLOW TO OCCUR...AND COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND WIND SHIFT COMBINED WITH INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD
HIGHS THERE IN THE 60S RATHER THAN LOWER 70S. SO THAT WAS THE
ONLY TWEAK TO THE FORECAST...WITH THE REST OF THE CWA SEEING 70S
LATER TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
LATEST MSAS THIS MORNING WAS SHOWING A RELATIVELY WEAK THERMAL BNDRY
EXTENDING FROM N-CNTRL ND INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE PUSHING TO THE SE.
HIRES HRRR PUTS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BNDRY MOVING INTO THE NRN
CWA IN A MATTER OF HOURS THE THRU THE REST OF THE CWA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. GIVEN WEAK CAA DECENT MIXING...SHOULD BE ABLE TO
REACH LOW 70S THIS AFTN...AND FOR WEDNESDAY MET/MAV ARE SIMILAR WITH
LOW 70S. ON THURSDAY...WITH INCREASING 1000-500MB THKNS BUILDING
IN...PREFER WARMER MAV VALUES WITH MID/UPPER 70S. LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...SMALL POPS IN PLACE OVER THE NRN CWA WHEN ANOTHER WEAK SFC
BNDRY MOVES IN.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
GFS/ECM SHOWING POSSIBLE PCPN THRU THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED PDS.
POST-FRONTAL PCPN ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DISSIPATES ON FRIDAY AS SFC
BNDRY PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH. LLVL MOISTURE RETURN/STOUT 305K UPGLIDE
DRIVING PCPN CHANCES THEN SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT...INCREASING MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO CNTRL PLAINS. BNDRY MOVES SOUTH OF THE CWA ON
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST
WINDS AVERAGING 10 TO 20KT WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 10KT AFTER
00Z. WILL SEE VFR CIGS BETWEEN FL040 AND FL060 MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTH FOR A TIME FROM NEAR 20Z THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. SOME BRIEF MVFR
CIGS COULD AFFECT KOFK AS WELL.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DERGAN
SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...DERGAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
306 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
LATEST MSAS THIS MORNING WAS SHOWING A RELATIVELY WEAK THERMAL BNDRY
EXTENDING FROM N-CNTRL ND INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE PUSHING TO THE SE.
HIRES HRRR PUTS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BNDRY MOVING INTO THE NRN
CWA IN A MATTER OF HOURS THE THRU THE REST OF THE CWA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. GIVEN WEAK CAA DECENT MIXING...SHOULD BE ABLE TO
REACH LOW 70S THIS AFTN...AND FOR WEDNESDAY MET/MAV ARE SIMILAR WITH
LOW 70S. ON THURSDAY...WITH INCREASING 1000-500MB THKNS BUILDING
IN...PREFER WARMER MAV VALUES WITH MID/UPPER 70S. LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...SMALL POPS IN PLACE OVER THE NRN CWA WHEN ANOTHER WEAK SFC
BNDRY MOVES IN.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
GFS/ECM SHOWING POSSIBLE PCPN THRU THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED PDS.
POST-FRONTAL PCPN ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DISSIPATES ON FRIDAY AS SFC
BNDRY PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH. LLVL MOISTURE RETURN/STOUT 305K UPGLIDE
DRIVING PCPN CHANCES THEN SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT...INCREASING MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO CNTRL PLAINS. BNDRY MOVES SOUTH OF THE CWA ON
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...KERN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1029 PM EDT WED APR 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST US WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY INTO
THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND A NARROW 500 MB
RIDGE WILL KEEP OUR REGION DRY TONIGHT. AFTERNOON CUMULUS HAVE
LARGELY DISSIPATED...WITH JUST SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD EXPAND A BIT LATER TONIGHT.
A CLOSED 500 MB LOW ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATE THIS EVENING
WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS INDIANA ON THURSDAY. THE MAJORITY OF
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE FORECASTS A NARROW AXIS OF CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN
QPF TO EXTEND FROM WESTERN PA INTO FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER. THE ORIGIN OF THIS APPEARS TO BE SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN MARYLAND WHICH SHOULD FUNNEL ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY. A CONSENSUS OF MESOSCALE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO
AGGRESSIVEWITH THIS...BUT THE LATEST HRRR AND 00Z NAM APPEAR TO
BE A BIT MORE IN LINE WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WERE USED TO
FINE-TUNE THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE SHOWERS. SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY TO SPREAD INTO FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER
AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY...WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA REMAINS
DRY. IN FACT...PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE MAY
SEE SUNNY SKIES FOR A TIME ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVERAGE AND LOCAL
LAKE BREEZES...WITH LOWEST READINGS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
ALONG THE LAKES...AND HIGHER TEMPERATURES INLAND TOWARD THE FINGER
LAKES REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
EVENING UPDATE...BUMPED UP POPS A BIT ALONG THE PA LINE THURSDAY
EVENING AS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW WILL COMBINE WITH
AN INCREASE IN 850-700MB MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA NORTH OF CATTARAUGUS
CREEK SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
UNEVENTFUL WEATHER WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING
THIS PERIOD...AS OUR FORECAST AREA WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE PERIPHERY
OF A PASSING CUT OFF LOW. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL OFFER THE CHANCE
FOR A COUPLE NUISANCE SHOWERS...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME WILL
BE RAIN FREE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF
NORMAL EARLY MAY VALUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...
AND FOR AT LEAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY...RAIN FREE CONDITIONS.
SEVERAL PACIFIC BASED SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL
PUMP UP A RIDGE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL ESTABLISH A
DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER OUR REGION...WITH H85 TEMPS FORECAST
TO CLIMB TO BETWEEN 10 AND 12C. THE WARMING AIRMASS SHOULD EASILY
SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS OF 65 TO 70 ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD READINGS OF 70 TO 75 EXPECTED FOR MONDAY.
AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST OF OUR REGION LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...ALONG WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHEN THERE IS MODEL CONSENSUS THAT THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO OUR FORECAST AREA AND BRIEFLY STALL. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBY AT JHW IN SHOWERS THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A BENIGN PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A
WEAK GRADIENT FLOW. LAKE BREEZES WILL INFLUENCE WIND DIRECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WAVES SHOULD GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 2
FEET.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ZAFF
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...RSH/SMITH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...APFFEL/ZAFF
MARINE...APFFEL/ZAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1232 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM TUESDAY...HOURLY TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE SLOW TO
RISE GIVEN THIS MORNING`S CIRRUS CLOUD COVER BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY NOW THAT NEAR-FULL
SUNSHINE IS DEVELOPING. DISCUSSION FROM 945 AM FOLLOWS --> VERY FEW
CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. AN EXPANSIVE FAN OF
CIRRUS CLOUDS EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA...GEORGIA AND THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS ARE THE RESULT OF BLOWOFF FROM AN MCS MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THESE TRANSLUCENT TO NEARLY OPAQUE CLOUDS
ARE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT OVER 100 KNOTS AND SHOULD LARGELY BE
OFFSHORE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
TRANSITORY HOWEVER AS A NEW BATCH OF CLOUDS BETWEEN 15000-25000 FEET
WILL ARRIVE DURING THE EVENING AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN
THE GULF. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO OUR HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS TODAY...STILL ANTICIPATED TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 FOR MOST AREAS. THAT`S NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL! DISCUSSION
FROM 600 AM FOLLOWS...
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WERE WARMING AND THINNING THIS
MORNING.
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA WILL SKIRT BY TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS IT MOVES
OFFSHORE TODAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THIS MORNING WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND
CENTRAL GULF COASTAL STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY STREAKING OUT AHEAD OF THE WAVE AS ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE INCREASES. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE INTO THIS EVE WILL
SLOWLY BE DISLODGED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO WHICH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE
TONIGHT AS IT TURNS NORTHEAST. COOL NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS THIS MORNING WILL VEER TO A MORE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BEGIN TO
CLIMB FROM LESS THAN A HALF INCH TODAY TO AROUND 1 INCH LATE
TONIGHT.
CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS WILL BRING CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS TO THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS EARLY ON...BUT THESE CLOUDS SHOULD TEND TO THIN
WITH THE BULK OF THE THICK CLOUD COVER GETTING SUPPRESSED TO OUR S
LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THICK CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED TO SURGE BACK TO THE N THIS EVE WITH CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT OVERNIGHT.
DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND THIS
EVE. HOWEVER...AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS...LASTLY IN THE LOW LEVELS...
EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO BEGIN TO BREAK OUT FROM SW TO NE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE HIGHEST RISK FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL BEFORE DAYBREAK
WED WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL
RAMP POPS UP TO LIKELY ALONG AND SW OF A LINE FROM GEORGETOWN TO KINGSTREE
TO TIMMONSVILLE WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT IN POPS TO THE NE OF THIS
LINE...FALLING BELOW THRESHOLD AS YOU MOVE UP ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR
AREA. DUE TO THE DRYNESS OF THE COLUMN INITIALLY...DO NOT EXPECT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL EXCEED A TENTH OF AN INCH EVEN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MOST ZONES PRIOR TO 12Z WED.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S...WELL BELOW
NORMAL. NOT AS CHILLY AS RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S WITH UPPER 50S AT THE BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...A WET AND COOL MID WEEK PERIOD COMING UP.
GULF COAST LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AFTER REACHING THE NORTHEAST
COAST OF FLORIDA WED AFTN. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE EARLY WED WITH LIGHT NE FLOW..BUT A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE EAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL ACT TO SHARPEN
A SW FLOW AHEAD OF IT INTO THE CAROLINAS WHILE THE SFC LOW MOVES
NE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT THE GRADIENT TO
TIGHTEN WITH ENHANCED N-NE COOL SFC FLOW WHILE WINDS ALOFT
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENHANCING WEDGE
INLAND AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED
INTO WED EVE. EXPECT RAIN TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA FROM SW TO NE
WITH GREATEST QPF WED AFTN.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH WED NIGHT AS
SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE UP JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SHORTWAVE PUSHING THE LOW ON A FARTHER
EASTWARD TRACK UP THE SOUTHEAST WATERS ON WED AND KEEP IT WEAKER
OVERALL REMAINING SLOWER WITH DEEP CLOSED LOW MOVING DOWN FROM THE
UPPER MID WEST ON THURS. BUT STILL COUNTING ON A GOOD DEAL OF PCP
OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS WED AFTN WITH ENHANCEMENT FROM DECENT
DYNAMICS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. LIFT WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT
WED AS SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY AND A DEEPER NW FLOW SETS UP ON BACK
END OF LOW. EXPECT DRYING THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE
COLUMN WITH WINDS BACKING AROUND TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION.
SKIES MAY BRIGHTEN WITH SOME DRYING THROUGH THE MID LEVELS ON
THURS BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF PCP WILL COME AS POTENT MID TO UPPER
LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATER ON THURS.
EXPECT TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL ON WED...AND MAY NOT MAKE IT PAST
60 IN SPOTS IN CLOUDS AND RAIN. THURS WILL RETURN TOWARD 70S IN
PLACES AS CLOUDS THIN OUT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...POTENT LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
ON FRI WITH A DEEP N-NW FLOW ON THE BACK END BRINGING IN PLENTY OF
DRY AIR. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS OR PCP EARLY FRI WILL DIMINISH AS
COLUMN DRIES OUT. PCP WATER VALUES WILL DROP TO LESS THAN A HALF
INCH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND EXITING LOW. HEIGHTS AS LOW
AS 545 FRI MORNING WILL BEGIN TO RISE WITH AIR MASS MODIFYING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT A GENERAL WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS
REACHING BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE AS RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
WILL BRING TEMPS UP AROUND 80 BY SUN AND MON.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOOK FOR A BROKEN CIRRUS CEILING THE AFTERNOON...DEBRIS
FROM A LARGE COMPLEX SOUTH OF THE REGION. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW MAY
BE REPLACE WITH A SOUTHEAST RESULTANT ALONG THE COAST. LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT WITH NO FOG EXPECTED. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. BY DAYBREAK...LOOK FOR A MID CLOUD
CEILING WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ADVECTING NORTHWARD FROM A
WARM FRONT. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE REGION...THE EASTERN HALF BEING THE MOST
FAVORABLE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A CONTINUING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. VFR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES NEEDED ON THIS EARLY AFTERNOON
UPDATE. DISCUSSION FROM 945 AM --> FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE
THIS MORNING AS LAST NIGHT`S NORTHERLY SURGE BEGINS TO DIE DOWN. N-
NE BREEZES SHOULD SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WIND
DIRECTIONS NEARSHORE TURNING ONSHORE IN A WEAK SEABREEZE CIRCULATION
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST HIGH-RES MODELING VIA
THE HRRR AND RUC MODELS SHOWS THE SEABREEZE WILL BE BEST-DEVELOPED
SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR. CURRENT SEAS RANGE FROM 2-3 FT NEARSHORE TO
AROUND 4 FT OUT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY. SPECTRAL WAVE DATA
INDICATES A MIX OF PERIODS...A SMALL 8 SECOND SWELL WITH MORE
SUBSTANTIAL 4-5 SECOND CHOP. DISCUSSION FROM 600 AM FOLLOWS...
THE LAST OF THE NORTHERLY SURGES WAS QUICKLY WANING THIS MORNING AND
WE HAVE REMOVED THE SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL STILL BE HIGHEST THIS MORNING...SUSTAINED UP TO
10 TO 20 KT AND SEAS UP TO 3 TO 4 FT. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE WIND DIRECTION VEERS FROM N TO NE. LIGHT
WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH AN E WIND UP TO 10 TO 15 KT DEVELOPING BY MORNING.
SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE WILL BEGIN TO TREND HIGHER
WED MORNING.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL
CREATE DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN IN THE CAROLINAS AND
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH ON SHORE WINDS
AROUND 10 KT EARLY WED INCREASING UP TO 15 TO 20 KT. THIS WILL
PUSH SEAS UP FROM 2 TO 4 FT UP TO 3 TO 5 FT AND SHOULD SEE BRIEF
PERIOD LATE WED UP TO 6 TO 7 FT IN STRONGER E-NE WINDS AS GRADIENT
BECOMES PINCHED...POSSIBLY PRODUCING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS.
AS LOW MOVES UP THE COAST WINDS WILL BACK BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY
AND THEN NW HEADING THROUGH THURS AND WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 15
KT. THE WEAKENING OFF SHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO DROP TO 2 TO
4 FT MOST WATERS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE LOCAL WATERS FRI INTO SATURDAY AS DEEP
NW FLOW DEVELOPS ON BACK END. NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT FRI MORNING
WILL INCREASE IN CAA THROUGH LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. SEAS WILL
INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD BUT OFF SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP GREATEST
SEAS UP TO 5 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS GRADIENT RELAXES AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RJD/TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
945 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM TUESDAY...VERY FEW CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING. AN EXPANSIVE FAN OF CIRRUS CLOUDS EXTENDING ACROSS
FLORIDA...GEORGIA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ARE THE RESULT OF
BLOWOFF FROM AN MCS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THESE
TRANSLUCENT TO NEARLY OPAQUE CLOUDS ARE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT
OVER 100 KNOTS AND SHOULD LARGELY BE OFFSHORE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE TRANSITORY HOWEVER AS A NEW
BATCH OF CLOUDS BETWEEN 15000-25000 FEET WILL ARRIVE DURING THE
EVENING AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO OUR HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS TODAY...STILL
ANTICIPATED TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR MOST AREAS.
THAT`S NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL! DISCUSSION FROM 600 AM
FOLLOWS...
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WERE WARMING AND THINNING THIS
MORNING.
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA WILL SKIRT BY TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS IT MOVES
OFFSHORE TODAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THIS MORNING WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND
CENTRAL GULF COASTAL STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY STREAKING OUT AHEAD OF THE WAVE AS ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE INCREASES. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE INTO THIS EVE WILL
SLOWLY BE DISLODGED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO WHICH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE
TONIGHT AS IT TURNS NORTHEAST. COOL NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS THIS MORNING WILL VEER TO A MORE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BEGIN TO
CLIMB FROM LESS THAN A HALF INCH TODAY TO AROUND 1 INCH LATE
TONIGHT.
CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS WILL BRING CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS TO THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS EARLY ON...BUT THESE CLOUDS SHOULD TEND TO THIN
WITH THE BULK OF THE THICK CLOUD COVER GETTING SUPPRESSED TO OUR S
LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THICK CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED TO SURGE BACK TO THE N THIS EVE WITH CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT OVERNIGHT.
DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND THIS
EVE. HOWEVER...AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS...LASTLY IN THE LOW LEVELS...
EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO BEGIN TO BREAK OUT FROM SW TO NE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE HIGHEST RISK FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL BEFORE DAYBREAK
WED WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL
RAMP POPS UP TO LIKELY ALONG AND SW OF A LINE FROM GEORGETOWN TO KINGSTREE
TO TIMMONSVILLE WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT IN POPS TO THE NE OF THIS
LINE...FALLING BELOW THRESHOLD AS YOU MOVE UP ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR
AREA. DUE TO THE DRYNESS OF THE COLUMN INITIALLY...DO NOT EXPECT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL EXCEED A TENTH OF AN INCH EVEN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MOST ZONES PRIOR TO 12Z WED.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S...WELL BELOW
NORMAL. NOT AS CHILLY AS RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S WITH UPPER 50S AT THE BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...A WET AND COOL MID WEEK PERIOD COMING UP.
GULF COAST LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AFTER REACHING THE NORTHEAST
COAST OF FLORIDA WED AFTN. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE EARLY WED WITH LIGHT NE FLOW..BUT A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE EAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL ACT TO SHARPEN
A SW FLOW AHEAD OF IT INTO THE CAROLINAS WHILE THE SFC LOW MOVES
NE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT THE GRADIENT TO
TIGHTEN WITH ENHANCED N-NE COOL SFC FLOW WHILE WINDS ALOFT
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENHANCING WEDGE
INLAND AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED
INTO WED EVE. EXPECT RAIN TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA FROM SW TO NE
WITH GREATEST QPF WED AFTN.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH WED NIGHT AS
SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE UP JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SHORTWAVE PUSHING THE LOW ON A FARTHER
EASTWARD TRACK UP THE SOUTHEAST WATERS ON WED AND KEEP IT WEAKER
OVERALL REMAINING SLOWER WITH DEEP CLOSED LOW MOVING DOWN FROM THE
UPPER MID WEST ON THURS. BUT STILL COUNTING ON A GOOD DEAL OF PCP
OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS WED AFTN WITH ENHANCEMENT FROM DECENT
DYNAMICS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. LIFT WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT
WED AS SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY AND A DEEPER NW FLOW SETS UP ON BACK
END OF LOW. EXPECT DRYING THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE
COLUMN WITH WINDS BACKING AROUND TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION.
SKIES MAY BRIGHTEN WITH SOME DRYING THROUGH THE MID LEVELS ON
THURS BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF PCP WILL COME AS POTENT MID TO UPPER
LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATER ON THURS.
EXPECT TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL ON WED...AND MAY NOT MAKE IT PAST
60 IN SPOTS IN CLOUDS AND RAIN. THURS WILL RETURN TOWARD 70S IN
PLACES AS CLOUDS THIN OUT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...POTENT LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
ON FRI WITH A DEEP N-NW FLOW ON THE BACK END BRINGING IN PLENTY OF
DRY AIR. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS OR PCP EARLY FRI WILL DIMINISH AS
COLUMN DRIES OUT. PCP WATER VALUES WILL DROP TO LESS THAN A HALF
INCH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND EXITING LOW. HEIGHTS AS LOW
AS 545 FRI MORNING WILL BEGIN TO RISE WITH AIR MASS MODIFYING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT A GENERAL WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS
REACHING BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE AS RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
WILL BRING TEMPS UP AROUND 80 BY SUN AND MON.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
GIVE US SOME HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TODAY. LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE...PERHAPS BEING REPLACED WITH A
EASTERLY SEA BREEZE COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON. THICKENING CLOUDS
TONIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. ANY PRECIP WILL PROBABLY
START AFTER THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
TERMINALS EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN AND POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING BY MID MORNING. SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
A UPPER LOW PASSES. VFR SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING
AS LAST NIGHT`S NORTHERLY SURGE BEGINS TO DIE DOWN. N-NE BREEZES
SHOULD SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WIND DIRECTIONS
NEARSHORE TURNING ONSHORE IN A WEAK SEABREEZE CIRCULATION DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST HIGH-RES MODELING VIA THE HRRR
AND RUC MODELS SHOWS THE SEABREEZE WILL BE BEST-DEVELOPED SOUTH OF
CAPE FEAR. CURRENT SEAS RANGE FROM 2-3 FT NEARSHORE TO AROUND 4 FT
OUT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY. SPECTRAL WAVE DATA INDICATES A
MIX OF PERIODS...A SMALL 8 SECOND SWELL WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL 4-5
SECOND CHOP. DISCUSSION FROM 600 AM FOLLOWS...
THE LAST OF THE NORTHERLY SURGES WAS QUICKLY WANING THIS MORNING AND
WE HAVE REMOVED THE SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL STILL BE HIGHEST THIS MORNING...SUSTAINED UP TO
10 TO 20 KT AND SEAS UP TO 3 TO 4 FT. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE WIND DIRECTION VEERS FROM N TO NE. LIGHT
WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH AN E WIND UP TO 10 TO 15 KT DEVELOPING BY MORNING.
SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE WILL BEGIN TO TREND HIGHER
WED MORNING.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL
CREATE DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN IN THE CAROLINAS AND
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH ON SHORE WINDS
AROUND 10 KT EARLY WED INCREASING UP TO 15 TO 20 KT. THIS WILL
PUSH SEAS UP FROM 2 TO 4 FT UP TO 3 TO 5 FT AND SHOULD SEE BRIEF
PERIOD LATE WED UP TO 6 TO 7 FT IN STRONGER E-NE WINDS AS GRADIENT
BECOMES PINCHED...POSSIBLY PRODUCING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS.
AS LOW MOVES UP THE COAST WINDS WILL BACK BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY
AND THEN NW HEADING THROUGH THURS AND WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 15
KT. THE WEAKENING OFF SHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO DROP TO 2 TO
4 FT MOST WATERS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE LOCAL WATERS FRI INTO SATURDAY AS DEEP
NW FLOW DEVELOPS ON BACK END. NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT FRI MORNING
WILL INCREASE IN CAA THROUGH LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. SEAS WILL
INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD BUT OFF SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP GREATEST
SEAS UP TO 5 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS GRADIENT RELAXES AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RJD/TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
939 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015
GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL RATES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...AND SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION...ADDED AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION
ACROSS THE WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO EXPAND THE
ISOLATED SHOWER MENTION ACROSS THE WEST LATE TONIGHT GIVEN TRENDS
IN THE 19-21 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS WHICH PROPAGATE SHOWERS ALONG
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MONTANA BORDER AROUND 10 UTC.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015
CURRENTLY...SUNNY SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES INTO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S STATEWIDE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE
LEE OF THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
TONIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...BUT SHOULD SEE INCREASING
CLOUDS WEST TOWARD MORNING AS THE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES
INTO MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS INCREASING MID
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE WEST. A SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES IS SITUATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
INCREASING 850MB WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH THERMAL RIDGING
MOVING INTO THE AREA SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS MILD WITH READINGS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S.
THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN MONTANA
AROUND MIDDAY AND INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY EARLY EVENING. THIS
WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT TO NEAR THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR BY
MIDDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BUMP TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S. THE DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD ALLOW DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE
LOW TO MID 30S SOUTH CENTRAL...AND INTO THE LOWER 30S OVER THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. AS WE MIX OUT IN THE AFTERNOON...WE SEE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
30 MPH OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...TAPERING SLIGHTLY AS YOU GO
WEST TO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THIS PRODUCE AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY...TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. WILL BE
ISSUING A RED FLAG WARNING DUE TO THE LOW HUMIDITIES AND STRONG
WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN COOLER
AIR...RAISING HUMIDITIES AND BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED BUT DID MENTION AN ISOLATE THUNDERSTORM
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...LOCATED OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...CONTINUES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL PERSIST IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS
OF THE STATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER...THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS PROVIDE
AGREEMENT ON ZONAL FLOW BECOMING DOMINANT THE THROUGH PERIOD.
SEVERAL EMBEDDED UNPREDICTABLE SHORTWAVES ARE PROJECTED WITHIN THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW...CREATING FREQUENT CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY CONFINED TO
SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE STATE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015
A COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA LATE THIS EVENING WILL MOVE
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS
GUSTING NEAR 30 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CHANGE TO THE WEST
BEHIND THE FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR NDZ023-025-
036-037-046>048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1248 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
SKIES HAVE STARTED TO CLEAR OFF ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE
CLOUDINESS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TEMPS HAVE BEEN A BIT SLOW TO RECOVER
EVEN AS SKIES BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY...SO LOWERED HIGHS A DEGREE OR
TWO AND THINK MOST SPOTS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 60S.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY WAS STILL SOCKED IN WITH FOG SO
EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THERE ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. AS
SOON AS THAT WENT OUT THE OBS AT GFK STARTED GOING UP IN
VISIBILITY. FIGURES. THE WEB CAMS AT DRAYTON AND PEMBINA ARE STILL
SHOWING A LOT OF FOG...ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SLOW IMPROVEMENT
OVER THE PAST HOUR. WILL HANG ONTO THE ADVISORY FOR ANOTHER HALF
HOUR OR SO AND THEN CANCEL THE WHOLE THING AT ONCE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
NOW THAT IT IS DAYLIGHT THE WEB CAMS ARE MORE HELP. THEY INDICATE
WIDESPREAD VERY LOW VSBY DUE TO DENSE FOG WITHIN THE
VALLEY...WITH MORE PATCHY DENSE FOG TO THE WEST WITHIN THE DEVILS
LAKE BASIN. AT ANY RATE...MOST AREAS ARE 1/4SM AND WILL CONTINUE
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
THE HENDRUM-ADA WEBCAM IN SHOWING DENSE FOG...AND WILL EXTEND THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO THIS AREA.
THERE IS A ALSO DENSE FOG IN A SMALL AREA AROUND VALLEY CITY...BUT
THIS AREA IS DETACHED FROM THE MAIN FOG AREA AND REMAINS
ISOLATED.
HRRR/RAP INDICATES THAT THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 9AM-10AM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 507 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
THE ZERO TO 1/4SM VSBY OBSERVATIONS ARE BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.
LATEST RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
ARE BECOMING CALM ACROSS THIS AREA (LOOKING AT 950MB-925MB
WINDS)...WHICH IS LIKELY ALLOWING THE FOG TO BECOME MORE MATURE
(DEVELOP MORE THAN JUST 5 FEET ABOVE THE SFC). WEB CAMS ARE
BEGINNING TO INDICATE VSBY REDUCTIONS AS WELL. SINCE THE FOG SEEMS
MORE WIDESPREAD NOW AND THICKER...ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
THIS AREA. WILL NEED TO WATCH AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...BUT
THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TIME FOR FOG FORMATION ANYMORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE THE DENSE FOG THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA (LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
THE SHOWERS). AUTOMATED SENSORS INDICATING 0SM-1/4SM VSBY...BUT
DOT WEB CAMS INDICATE DECENT VISIBILITY. A FEW OB SITES NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER NOW FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 1/4SM AND AOA 3SM.
A SHERIFF REPORT INDICATES THE FOG IS VERY SHALLOW (4-5 FEET ABOVE
THE GROUND). CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE FOG BECOMES VERY DENSE
RIGHT AFTER THE RAIN ENDS...BUT THIS DENSE FOG BECOMES PATCHY
AFTER AN HOUR OR TWO. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS...THIS MAKES SOME
SENSE WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS ABOVE THE SFC COMBINED WITH WINDS
NEAR OR ABOVE 10 KNOTS JUST ABOVE THE SFC. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR WEB CAMS AND OBSERVATIONS...BUT FOR NOW THINKING A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY IS NOT NEEDED (WILL ISSUE NOWCASTS).
THE BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS SHOWERS FROM FARGO TO BAUDETTE WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST/SOUTHEAST...EXITING THE REGION SHORTLY
AFTER 12Z.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. CLEAR
SKY AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE MID-UPPER 60S TODAY...AND INTO THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY. THE
MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE MIN TEMPS TONIGHT CONSIDERING THE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. WENT NEAR MODEL DEW POINT VALUES
FOR MIN TEMPS WHICH IS 5F-10F BELOW MOST GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE
EASTWARD WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THUR NIGHT. DRY
WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY...WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ANTICIPATE A BAND OF SHOWERS
THUR NIGHT.
FRIDAY-MONDAY...A PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS
EXPECTED...WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET GENERALLY
MEANDERING NEAR THE US/CANADA BORDER. THE FLOW WILL BE RATHER
ZONAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
CONTINUING INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AND SATURDAY LOOKING TO
BE THE WARMEST DAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS DO ALL INDICATE A FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE SAT OR SUN BRINGING MODESTLY COOLER TEMPS TO THE
REGION TO START NEXT WEEK. AS FAR AS PRECIP
GOES...TIMING/PLACEMENT ISSUES BETWEEN THE MODELS LEAD TO LOW
CONFIDENCE...WITH THE GEM/ECMWF TAKING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS S CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND...AND THE GFS DIGGING A WAVE
TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THESE DIFFERENCES...IN ADDITION
TO PLACEMENT OF OTHER EMBEDDED WAVES...WOULD IMPACT BOTH THE
POSITION OF SFC FEATURES AND THE LOCATION OF BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/FORCING. RIGHT NOW HAVE KEPT SOME LOW END POPS MAINLY
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND A
BUILDING H5 RIDGE ALOFT... EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS OVER MINNESOTA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...SO LIGHT SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN OVER THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE FORENOON. DRYING
AND WARMING AIRMASS OVERALL SO MORNING FOG IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...GUST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
936 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY WAS STILL SOCKED IN WITH FOG SO
EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THERE ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. AS
SOON AS THAT WENT OUT THE OBS AT GFK STARTED GOING UP IN
VISIBILITY. FIGURES. THE WEB CAMS AT DRAYTON AND PEMBINA ARE STILL
SHOWING A LOT OF FOG...ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SLOW IMPROVEMENT
OVER THE PAST HOUR. WILL HANG ONTO THE ADVISORY FOR ANOTHER HALF
HOUR OR SO AND THEN CANCEL THE WHOLE THING AT ONCE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
NOW THAT IT IS DAYLIGHT THE WEB CAMS ARE MORE HELP. THEY INDICATE
WIDESPREAD VERY LOW VSBY DUE TO DENSE FOG WITHIN THE
VALLEY...WITH MORE PATCHY DENSE FOG TO THE WEST WITHIN THE DEVILS
LAKE BASIN. AT ANY RATE...MOST AREAS ARE 1/4SM AND WILL CONTINUE
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
THE HENDRUM-ADA WEBCAM IN SHOWING DENSE FOG...AND WILL EXTEND THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO THIS AREA.
THERE IS A ALSO DENSE FOG IN A SMALL AREA AROUND VALLEY CITY...BUT
THIS AREA IS DETACHED FROM THE MAIN FOG AREA AND REMAINS
ISOLATED.
HRRR/RAP INDICATES THAT THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 9AM-10AM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 507 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
THE ZERO TO 1/4SM VSBY OBSERVATIONS ARE BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.
LATEST RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
ARE BECOMING CALM ACROSS THIS AREA (LOOKING AT 950MB-925MB
WINDS)...WHICH IS LIKELY ALLOWING THE FOG TO BECOME MORE MATURE
(DEVELOP MORE THAN JUST 5 FEET ABOVE THE SFC). WEB CAMS ARE
BEGINNING TO INDICATE VSBY REDUCTIONS AS WELL. SINCE THE FOG SEEMS
MORE WIDESPREAD NOW AND THICKER...ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
THIS AREA. WILL NEED TO WATCH AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...BUT
THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TIME FOR FOG FORMATION ANYMORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE THE DENSE FOG THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA (LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
THE SHOWERS). AUTOMATED SENSORS INDICATING 0SM-1/4SM VSBY...BUT
DOT WEB CAMS INDICATE DECENT VISIBILITY. A FEW OB SITES NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER NOW FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 1/4SM AND AOA 3SM.
A SHERIFF REPORT INDICATES THE FOG IS VERY SHALLOW (4-5 FEET ABOVE
THE GROUND). CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE FOG BECOMES VERY DENSE
RIGHT AFTER THE RAIN ENDS...BUT THIS DENSE FOG BECOMES PATCHY
AFTER AN HOUR OR TWO. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS...THIS MAKES SOME
SENSE WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS ABOVE THE SFC COMBINED WITH WINDS
NEAR OR ABOVE 10 KNOTS JUST ABOVE THE SFC. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR WEB CAMS AND OBSERVATIONS...BUT FOR NOW THINKING A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY IS NOT NEEDED (WILL ISSUE NOWCASTS).
THE BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS SHOWERS FROM FARGO TO BAUDETTE WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST/SOUTHEAST...EXITING THE REGION SHORTLY
AFTER 12Z.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. CLEAR
SKY AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE MID-UPPER 60S TODAY...AND INTO THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY. THE
MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE MIN TEMPS TONIGHT CONSIDERING THE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. WENT NEAR MODEL DEW POINT VALUES
FOR MIN TEMPS WHICH IS 5F-10F BELOW MOST GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE
EASTWARD WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THUR NIGHT. DRY
WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY...WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ANTICIPATE A BAND OF SHOWERS
THUR NIGHT.
FRIDAY-MONDAY...A PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS
EXPECTED...WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET GENERALLY
MEANDERING NEAR THE US/CANADA BORDER. THE FLOW WILL BE RATHER
ZONAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
CONTINUING INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AND SATURDAY LOOKING TO
BE THE WARMEST DAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS DO ALL INDICATE A FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE SAT OR SUN BRINGING MODESTLY COOLER TEMPS TO THE
REGION TO START NEXT WEEK. AS FAR AS PRECIP
GOES...TIMING/PLACEMENT ISSUES BETWEEN THE MODELS LEAD TO LOW
CONFIDENCE...WITH THE GEM/ECMWF TAKING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS S CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND...AND THE GFS DIGGING A WAVE
TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THESE DIFFERENCES...IN ADDITION
TO PLACEMENT OF OTHER EMBEDDED WAVES...WOULD IMPACT BOTH THE
POSITION OF SFC FEATURES AND THE LOCATION OF BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/FORCING. RIGHT NOW HAVE KEPT SOME LOW END POPS MAINLY
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
AFTER EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG AND/OR IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS...ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKY AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR FOG
FORMATION WED MORNING...BUT THIS PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION
ATTM.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ008-016-
027-030.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ001-002-
004-007.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
642 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
NOW THAT IT IS DAYLIGHT THE WEB CAMS ARE MORE HELP. THEY INDICATE
WIDESPREAD VERY LOW VSBY DUE TO DENSE FOG WITHIN THE
VALLEY...WITH MORE PATCHY DENSE FOG TO THE WEST WITHIN THE DEVILS
LAKE BASIN. AT ANY RATE...MOST AREAS ARE 1/4SM AND WILL CONTINUE
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
THE HENDRUM-ADA WEBCAM IN SHOWING DENSE FOG...AND WILL EXTEND THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO THIS AREA.
THERE IS A ALSO DENSE FOG IN A SMALL AREA AROUND VALLEY CITY...BUT
THIS AREA IS DETACHED FROM THE MAIN FOG AREA AND REMAINS
ISOLATED.
HRRR/RAP INDICATES THAT THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 9AM-10AM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 507 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
THE ZERO TO 1/4SM VSBY OBSERVATIONS ARE BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.
LATEST RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
ARE BECOMING CALM ACROSS THIS AREA (LOOKING AT 950MB-925MB
WINDS)...WHICH IS LIKELY ALLOWING THE FOG TO BECOME MORE MATURE
(DEVELOP MORE THAN JUST 5 FEET ABOVE THE SFC). WEB CAMS ARE
BEGINNING TO INDICATE VSBY REDUCTIONS AS WELL. SINCE THE FOG SEEMS
MORE WIDESPREAD NOW AND THICKER...ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
THIS AREA. WILL NEED TO WATCH AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...BUT
THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TIME FOR FOG FORMATION ANYMORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE THE DENSE FOG THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA (LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
THE SHOWERS). AUTOMATED SENSORS INDICATING 0SM-1/4SM VSBY...BUT
DOT WEB CAMS INDICATE DECENT VISIBILITY. A FEW OB SITES NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER NOW FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 1/4SM AND AOA 3SM.
A SHERIFF REPORT INDICATES THE FOG IS VERY SHALLOW (4-5 FEET ABOVE
THE GROUND). CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE FOG BECOMES VERY DENSE
RIGHT AFTER THE RAIN ENDS...BUT THIS DENSE FOG BECOMES PATCHY
AFTER AN HOUR OR TWO. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS...THIS MAKES SOME
SENSE WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS ABOVE THE SFC COMBINED WITH WINDS
NEAR OR ABOVE 10 KNOTS JUST ABOVE THE SFC. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR WEB CAMS AND OBSERVATIONS...BUT FOR NOW THINKING A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY IS NOT NEEDED (WILL ISSUE NOWCASTS).
THE BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS SHOWERS FROM FARGO TO BAUDETTE WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST/SOUTHEAST...EXITING THE REGION SHORTLY
AFTER 12Z.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. CLEAR
SKY AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE MID-UPPER 60S TODAY...AND INTO THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY. THE
MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE MIN TEMPS TONIGHT CONSIDERING THE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. WENT NEAR MODEL DEW POINT VALUES
FOR MIN TEMPS WHICH IS 5F-10F BELOW MOST GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE
EASTWARD WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THUR NIGHT. DRY
WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY...WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ANTICIPATE A BAND OF SHOWERS
THUR NIGHT.
FRIDAY-MONDAY...A PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS
EXPECTED...WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET GENERALLY
MEANDERING NEAR THE US/CANADA BORDER. THE FLOW WILL BE RATHER
ZONAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
CONTINUING INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AND SATURDAY LOOKING TO
BE THE WARMEST DAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS DO ALL INDICATE A FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE SAT OR SUN BRINGING MODESTLY COOLER TEMPS TO THE
REGION TO START NEXT WEEK. AS FAR AS PRECIP
GOES...TIMING/PLACEMENT ISSUES BETWEEN THE MODELS LEAD TO LOW
CONFIDENCE...WITH THE GEM/ECMWF TAKING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS S CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND...AND THE GFS DIGGING A WAVE
TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THESE DIFFERENCES...IN ADDITION
TO PLACEMENT OF OTHER EMBEDDED WAVES...WOULD IMPACT BOTH THE
POSITION OF SFC FEATURES AND THE LOCATION OF BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/FORCING. RIGHT NOW HAVE KEPT SOME LOW END POPS MAINLY
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
AFTER EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG AND/OR IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS...ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKY AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR FOG
FORMATION WED MORNING...BUT THIS PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION
ATTM.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ006>008-
014>016-024-026-027-030-054.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ001-002-
004-007.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
507 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 507 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
THE ZERO TO 1/4SM VSBY OBSERVATIONS ARE BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.
LATEST RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
ARE BECOMING CALM ACROSS THIS AREA (LOOKING AT 950MB-925MB
WINDS)...WHICH IS LIKELY ALLOWING THE FOG TO BECOME MORE MATURE
(DEVELOP MORE THAN JUST 5 FEET ABOVE THE SFC). WEB CAMS ARE
BEGINNING TO INDICATE VSBY REDUCTIONS AS WELL. SINCE THE FOG SEEMS
MORE WIDESPREAD NOW AND THICKER...ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
THIS AREA. WILL NEED TO WATCH AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...BUT
THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TIME FOR FOG FORMATION ANYMORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE THE DENSE FOG THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA (LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
THE SHOWERS). AUTOMATED SENSORS INDICATING 0SM-1/4SM VSBY...BUT
DOT WEB CAMS INDICATE DECENT VISIBILITY. A FEW OB SITES NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER NOW FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 1/4SM AND AOA 3SM.
A SHERIFF REPORT INDICATES THE FOG IS VERY SHALLOW (4-5 FEET ABOVE
THE GROUND). CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE FOG BECOMES VERY DENSE
RIGHT AFTER THE RAIN ENDS...BUT THIS DENSE FOG BECOMES PATCHY
AFTER AN HOUR OR TWO. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS...THIS MAKES SOME
SENSE WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS ABOVE THE SFC COMBINED WITH WINDS
NEAR OR ABOVE 10 KNOTS JUST ABOVE THE SFC. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR WEB CAMS AND OBSERVATIONS...BUT FOR NOW THINKING A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY IS NOT NEEDED (WILL ISSUE NOWCASTS).
THE BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS SHOWERS FROM FARGO TO BAUDETTE WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST/SOUTHEAST...EXITING THE REGION SHORTLY
AFTER 12Z.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. CLEAR
SKY AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE MID-UPPER 60S TODAY...AND INTO THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY. THE
MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE MIN TEMPS TONIGHT CONSIDERING THE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. WENT NEAR MODEL DEW POINT VALUES
FOR MIN TEMPS WHICH IS 5F-10F BELOW MOST GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE
EASTWARD WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THUR NIGHT. DRY
WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY...WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ANTICIPATE A BAND OF SHOWERS
THUR NIGHT.
FRIDAY-MONDAY...A PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS
EXPECTED...WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET GENERALLY
MEANDERING NEAR THE US/CANADA BORDER. THE FLOW WILL BE RATHER
ZONAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
CONTINUING INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AND SATURDAY LOOKING TO
BE THE WARMEST DAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS DO ALL INDICATE A FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE SAT OR SUN BRINGING MODESTLY COOLER TEMPS TO THE
REGION TO START NEXT WEEK. AS FAR AS PRECIP
GOES...TIMING/PLACEMENT ISSUES BETWEEN THE MODELS LEAD TO LOW
CONFIDENCE...WITH THE GEM/ECMWF TAKING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS S CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND...AND THE GFS DIGGING A WAVE
TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THESE DIFFERENCES...IN ADDITION
TO PLACEMENT OF OTHER EMBEDDED WAVES...WOULD IMPACT BOTH THE
POSITION OF SFC FEATURES AND THE LOCATION OF BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/FORCING. RIGHT NOW HAVE KEPT SOME LOW END POPS MAINLY
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015
PCPN BAND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND BE OUT OF THE FA BY
TUESDAY MORNING. MAIN ISSUE IS HOW FAST CLEARING OCCURS AND EXTENT
OF FOG. MENTIONED FOG AT KDVL/KGFK/KTVF AND IT SHOULD BURN OFF TUE
MORNING LEAVING LOTS OF SUN.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ006>008-
014>016-024-026-027-054.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ001-004-
007.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...GODON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1145 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN W/ LOW VFR CEILINGS CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN
OK AND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FOCUS TOWARD SE OK INTO WESTERN AR
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LOWER CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS KMLC/KFSM SITES LATER TONIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING W/ CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND A RETURN TO VFR LEVELS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/
..UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...
CONSISTENT CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE HRRR VALIDATE LEAVING THE
CURRENT HIGH POPS AS THEY ARE IN THE FORECAST. INTERESTINGLY... THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A FAIRLY STEEP GRADIENT OF POPS ALONG THE
NORTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS IS WELL REPRESENTED
IN THE CURRENT RADAR DATA AS DRY AIR MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH. ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS APPEAR TO REMAIN ON TRACK
AS WELL... SO WILL ONLY UPDATE THE ZFP TO IMPROVE THE WORDING AT
THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NE OK W/ A BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEARER KMLC. VFR TO PERIODIC MVFR
CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE EVENING. PRECIP WILL EXPAND
AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUES MORNING WITH
LOWERING CEILINGS FOR SE OK / WESTERN AR. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A LARGE RAIN SHIELD IS ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AT THIS HOUR
AS A MID-LEVEL LOW SPINS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
THE RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL TAPER ON TUESDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW
MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND
AN INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THAT
COULD SEE UPWARDS OF THREE INCHES OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH
COULD LEAD LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT REIGNS SUPREME. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ALSO
TAKE PLACE DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND AS THE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 47 64 47 74 / 90 30 0 10
FSM 48 60 44 73 / 90 70 10 10
MLC 49 59 46 72 / 80 50 10 10
BVO 45 67 44 75 / 70 20 0 10
FYV 45 60 40 69 / 80 40 10 10
BYV 45 60 43 69 / 40 30 10 10
MKO 47 62 44 71 / 90 50 0 10
MIO 45 65 44 72 / 50 20 0 10
F10 48 61 46 71 / 90 50 10 10
HHW 50 58 44 71 / 90 60 10 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
854 AM PDT TUE APR 28 2015
.DISCUSSION...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH AN EMPHASIS TOWARDS THE HRRR AND NAM
SOLUTION. THE FRONT IS STILL OFFSHORE AND SO FAR NO RAIN HAS BEEN
REPORTED ALONG THE COAST. HAVE LOWERED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR
INLAND LOCATIONS TODAY, BUT KEPT THEM HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST,
COAST RANGE AND NORTHERN CASCADES. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE MUCH RAIN, SO ADJUSTED QPF AMOUNTS LOWER AS WELL, BUT
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN UP THIS AFTERNOON AND WE`LL HAVE
BREEZY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THE MODELS SHOW
WEAK INSTABILITY IN PARTS OF KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND LEFT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN
FOR THIS EVENING, BUT WE`LL LOOK AT THIS IN MORE DETAIL TODAY AND
DETERMINE IF WE`LL KEEP IT IN FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
-PETRUCELLI
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 28/12Z TAF CYCLE. AT THE COAST...STRATUS WITH
MVFR CIGS WILL EXPAND WITH CIGS BECOMING IFR THIS MORNING. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD TERRAIN OBSCURATION OF THE COASTAL RANGE TODAY.
STRATUS WILL SPREAD INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN BRINGING CIGS TO MVFR AND
IFR LATER THIS MORNING...WITH TERRAIN OBSCURATION OF THE COASTAL
RANGE, CASCADES, AND UMPQUA MOUNTAINS.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
SANDLER
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 815 AM PDT TUESDAY 28 APR 2015...SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING INLAND BY MIDDAY.
MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING SEAS TO LOW END ADVISORY
LEVEL. SEAS WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE A THERMAL
TROUGH STRENGTHENS INLAND WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. THIS PATTERN
WILL CREATE STRONG NORTH WINDS AND THE ASSOCIATED STEEP WIND-DRIVEN
SEAS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. -BPN/SANDLER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM PDT TUE APR 28 2015/
DISCUSSION...THE 00Z GFS IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z
ECMWF THROUGH FRIDAY, AND WITH ITS 12Z MONDAY RUN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
OUR WEATHER AT LEAST INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BY AND LARGE BE DRY AND
VERY WARM WITH BREEZY/SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WINDS. THE MOST NOTABLE EXCEPTION WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
WILL RESULT IN A COOLER DAY FOR THE WEST SIDE WHILE IT IS WARMER
TODAY ON THE EAST SIDE. THE PROBABILITY OF MEASUREABLE SHOWERS
WILL BE HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST AND INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY.
ADDITIONALLY, THE 00Z NAM AND GFS INDICATE WEAK EARLY EVENING
INSTABILITY ON THE EAST SIDE WITH A VERY SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER
BASED AROUND 12K FT MSL. THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ONLY SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUD COVERAGE IN LAKE COUNTY. BUT, A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALTOGETHER. SO, A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN ADDED. SHOWERS COULD BEGIN NEAR
NORTH BEND BEFORE SUNRISE AND SHOWERS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST
THROUGH THE MORNING. A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AND THE HEATING OF THE DAY WILL RESULT IN THE HIGHEST POPS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FOLLOW WITH ANOTHER COUPLE OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES ON WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO CLOSER
AGREEMENT THAT THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL
RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WARNER MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN LAKE AND EASTERN MODOC
COUNTIES. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SIMPLY HAVE A COOLER DAY WITH
MORNING CLOUDS THAT WILL DIMINISH LATER IN THE DAY.
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE ON
THURSDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL BECOME MORE
COMPLEX AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE
LOOKS TO RETROGRADE ON FRIDAY WHILE A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND ANOTHER TROUGH OFFSHORE FROM CALIFORNIA MOVES CLOSER
TO THE COAST. THIS SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE UPPER FLOW COULD PRODUCE
WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA AND THERE IS A
MINIMAL/AROUND 10% PROBABILITY OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OR A
THUNDERSTORM EXTENDING FARTHER NORTH INTO MODOC COUNTY.
THE NORTHERN BRANCH MAY RESUME ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER DURING
THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF UNCERTAIN STRENGTH. A
5% TO 10% CHANCE OF FAR EAST SIDE SHOWERS HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR
SATURDAY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE/10-15% OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING FAR EAST
SIDE SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY. MOST OF THE AREA LOOKS TO SIMPLY HAVE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING, BUT
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, THE GFS IS MUCH STRONGER AND DEEPER THAN
THE ECMWF WITH ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THUS, THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS HIGHER THAN
ON THE WEEKEND THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON
TO 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1044 PM EDT WED APR 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DRIFT SLOWLY FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST AND OVER BERMUDA. THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD
WARM AND WEATHER STAY FAIR SATURDAY INTO THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO SEVERAL WEATHER ELEMENTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. LATEST HRRR AND WRF ARW MODELS SUGGEST THAT MOST /OR ALL/
OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN PARTS OF THE
CWA. SHOWERS WILL BE SLOWLY DEVELOPING AND DRIFTING NORTH ACROSS
THE WRN MTNS...AS A REULT OF A LLVL INVERTED TROUGH /NEAR THE
PA/OH BORDER AT 0230Z/ DRIFTING A BIT MORE TO THE EAST...AND BEING
OVERRUN BY THE LEADING EDGE OF SOME MID LAYER COOLING AND
INCREASED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.
QPF THROUGH 12Z IS LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH WHERE IT DOES
RAIN ACROSS THE WRN MTNS. ELSEWHERE...ZEROES IN THE RAINFALL DEPT
WILL CONTINUE TO SUFFICE.
EARLY EVENING DISCUSSION...
MAINLY SCATTERED...FLAT HIGH-BASED CU ARE MELTING AWAY WITH THE
SETTING SUN IN MANY LOCATIONS. A BKN LAYER OF CLOUDS AT THIS
SAME LEVEL COVERING PORTIONS OF THE NW MTNS SHOULD SLOWLY EXPAND
SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT AS PWATS INCREASE BY ABOUT
0.25 OF AN INCH AND LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/LIFT
INCREASES AHEAD OF A WEAK CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB. SKY COVER MAY BE
SKEWED MORE TWD SKC THAN BKN OVER THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS ACRS MUCH OF
CENTRAL PENN.
WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART AND VEER BY ABOUT 40-50
DEG THROUGH THE NIGHT /FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST/.
A WEAK NERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WILL COMBINE WITH THE
INCREASING DYNAMIC LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW...TO
EXPAND THE CLOUD COVER IN THE 7-10 KFT AGL LAYER...AND TRIGGER
SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAURELS LATER THIS EVENING. THE SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
MIN TEMPS EARLY THURSDAY WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER
40S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS OVER THE LAURELS/WRN MTS WILL SPREAD OUT A BIT...ADVANCING
TO THE EAST AND NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE UPPER HEIGHTS GET
LOWEST OVERHEAD IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. BUT THE COLDEST OF THE
AIR WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH. THE INSTABILITY AND SLOW MOVING NATURE
OF THESE SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAIN. QPF GETS CLOSE TO
AN INCH BY THE END OF THE DAY OVER THE SW...WITH A HALF AN INCH OR
SO UP TO STATE COLLEGE AND HARRISBURG. CAPES REMAIN BELOW 500 IN
GENERAL AND LI/S SCRAPE -1...SO A MENTION OF THUNDER IS WARRANTED
BUT ALSO NOT ENTIRELY NECESSARY. MAXES SHOULD BE BACK NEAR 70 OR
EVEN L70S IN THE EAST WHERE A P/S SKY IN THE MORNING SHOULD HELP
TEMPS RISE. THE CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP EVERYONE ELSE IN THE U50S TO
M60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LINGERING COLD TEMPS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES DIVING
INTO BASE OF UPPER TROUGH OVR PA...SHOULD PROMOTE SCT DIURNAL
SHOWERS FRI AND SAT. PLENTY OF CU/SC EXPECTED BENEATH UPPER TROF
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE U50S/L60S FRIDAY...THEN BRIGHTER/MILDER WX
LIKELY SAT...AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE OVR THE NORTHEAST CONUS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A WARMING TREND SUN-TUE...AS ALL MED RANGE
GUIDANCE SHOWS A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS. AS
SFC HIGH PUSHES OFF THE E COAST...RETURN SW FLOW WILL ADVECT
INCREASINGLY WARM AIR INTO PA. GEFS AND ECENS MEAN 8H TEMPS RISE
TO BTWN 10-12C BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...IMPLYING WIDESPREAD 70S FOR
HIGHS AND SOME 80S IN THE S VALLEYS. ECENS TRACKS A WEAK NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL
INTRODUCE AN INCREASING CHC OF SHRA/TSRA LATE MON/TUE...AS ASSOC
DYING COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD FROM NY STATE.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS SOUTH THROUGH MICHIGAN AND DOWN
THROUGH THE SOUTH...THE FLOW WILL SHIFT VEER TO THE SOUTH AND
COUPLED WITH MOIST LLVL FLOW WILL COMBINE TO CREATE SOME
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EXPAND IN THE HEATING OF THE DAY
TOMORROW. VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING...SLOWLY
DECREASING IN CIGS AND VSBYS BEGINNING AT JST AND CREEPING TO THE
NORTH AND THEN EASTWARD WITH MVFR CONDITIONS THE MAIN
CONCERN IN RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWERING CIGS...THOUGH PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT COULD BRING IFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO JST.
AS THE SHRA SPREADS TO THE N/E THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING
AND KBFD AND KAOO MAY HAVE VCSH BEFORE SUNRISE. THE REDUCTIONS TO
MVFR SHOULD BE BRIEF...BUT SOME POSS OF THUNDER EXISTS AFTER 15Z
THURSDAY...MAINLY IN THE SRN TERMINALS. IPT WILL REMAIN ABOVE MVFR
BEFORE LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WHEN THE SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...LOW VFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
SAT-MON...VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
OVER THE MTNS
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...DANGELO/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1050 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015
.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING OFF A LITTLE QUICKER THAN FORECAST THIS
EVENING WITH LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKIES. HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT
LOWS A LITTLE IN MANY LOCATIONS. UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN
SENT.
JCL
UPDATE... /ISSUED 720 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015/
AT EARLY EVENING...A FEW SHOWERS WERE PUSHING THROUGH PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL AR AND NORTHWEST MS AS THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD. THE SHOWERS ARE
QUICKLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND EXPECT THEM TO SOON DISSIPATE.
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO SOON CLEAR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. UPDATED THE ZONE FORECAST AND GRIDS TO
REMOVE REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON WORDING. ALSO MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO
THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES AND WINDS.
UPDATE... /ISSUED 511 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015/
ALSO INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MENTION OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST AR. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DETECTED
WITH WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY.
UPDATE... /ISSUED 456 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015/
SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ARE
MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NORTHEAST AR. LIGHT RAIN WAS
REPORTED AT CORNING AR WHILE WALNUT RIDGE AR REPORTED A WIND GUST
TO NEAR 40 MPH WITH ONE OF THE SHOWERS. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS
THESE SHOWERS CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
NORTHEAST AR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WHILE THE HRRR DOES MOVE
THEM INTO MEMPHIS...THE RAP DISSIPATES THE SHOWERS WITH SUNSET
BEFORE THEY REACH MEMPHIS. WILL MONITOR THIS...BUT FOR NOW ONLY
INCLUDED THE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST AR.
JCL
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015/
CURRENTLY AS OF 3PM... TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 70S THROUGHOUT THE
MIDSOUTH FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE SATURDAY BUT STILL ARE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW LATE APRIL NORMALS. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
THROUGHOUT THE CWA BUT THAT WILL SOON CHANGE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE REVOLVING AROUND A CLOSED LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION INCREASING CLOUDINESS MAINLY IN
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE MIDSOUTH. KNQA RADAR IS
ALREADY DEPICTING LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTHEASTERN
CWA... HOWEVER IT IS LIKELY THAT THIS PRECIPITATION IS NOT
REACHING THE GROUND DUE TO REALLY DRY SURFACE AIR IN PLACE.
SHORT TERM...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION OVER NIGHT. MODELS AGREE ON VERY LITTLE QPF
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AND THE MAJORITY OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL STAY DRY.
HOWEVER.. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR DEPICTS SOME VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTH
WEST MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING.
ON A BROADER SCALE... AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WHILE UPPER RIDGING TAKES PLACE NEAR THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREATS LAKES
WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION JUST EAST OF
THE MIDSOUTH ON THURSDAY. THE ONLY EFFECT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON
OUR CWA IS SLIGHTLY RAISED POPS FOR THE COUNTIES IN WEST
TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER... HOWEVER MOST OF THE PRECIP
WILL STAY FAR EAST OF OUR CWA. ABNORMALLY DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
A BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE MIDSOUTH
THURSDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
PARKED OVER THE MIDSOUTH.
LONG TERM...
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY THE WEEKEND
AND ABOVE AVERAGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS
EAST AND FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. MODELS AGREE ON A MORE DYNAMIC WEATHER
PATTERN SETTING UP BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP TROF APPROACHES THE
REGION.
JPM3
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS NEAR MEM
EARLY...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AND DRY WEATHER THIS PERIOD. NORTH
WINDS WILL BE THE ONLY MINOR CONCERN WITH A FEW GUSTS POSSIBLE
EARLY...THEN FREQUENT LIGHT GUSTS EXPECTED LATER IN THE PERIOD.
JAB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
720 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015
.UPDATE...
AT EARLY EVENING...A FEW SHOWERS WERE PUSHING THROUGH PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL AR AND NORTHWEST MS AS THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD. THE SHOWERS ARE
QUICKLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND EXPECT THEM TO SOON DISSIPATE.
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO SOON CLEAR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. UPDATED THE ZONE FORECAST AND GRIDS TO
REMOVE REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON WORDING. ALSO MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO
THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES AND WINDS.
JCL
UPDATE... /ISSUED 511 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015/
ALSO INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MENTION OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST AR. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DETECTED
WITH WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY.
UPDATE... /ISSUED 456 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015/
SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ARE
MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NORTHEAST AR. LIGHT RAIN WAS
REPORTED AT CORNING AR WHILE WALNUT RIDGE AR REPORTED A WIND GUST
TO NEAR 40 MPH WITH ONE OF THE SHOWERS. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS
THESE SHOWERS CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
NORTHEAST AR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WHILE THE HRRR DOES MOVE
THEM INTO MEMPHIS...THE RAP DISSIPATES THE SHOWERS WITH SUNSET
BEFORE THEY REACH MEMPHIS. WILL MONITOR THIS...BUT FOR NOW ONLY
INCLUDED THE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST AR.
JCL
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015/
CURRENTLY AS OF 3PM... TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 70S THROUGHOUT THE
MIDSOUTH FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE SATURDAY BUT STILL ARE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW LATE APRIL NORMALS. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
THROUGHOUT THE CWA BUT THAT WILL SOON CHANGE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE REVOLVING AROUND A CLOSED LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION INCREASING CLOUDINESS MAINLY IN
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE MIDSOUTH. KNQA RADAR IS
ALREADY DEPICTING LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTHEASTERN
CWA... HOWEVER IT IS LIKELY THAT THIS PRECIPITATION IS NOT
REACHING THE GROUND DUE TO REALLY DRY SURFACE AIR IN PLACE.
SHORT TERM...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION OVER NIGHT. MODELS AGREE ON VERY LITTLE QPF
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AND THE MAJORITY OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL STAY DRY.
HOWEVER.. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR DEPICTS SOME VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTH
WEST MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING.
ON A BROADER SCALE... AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WHILE UPPER RIDGING TAKES PLACE NEAR THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREATS LAKES
WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION JUST EAST OF
THE MIDSOUTH ON THURSDAY. THE ONLY EFFECT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON
OUR CWA IS SLIGHTLY RAISED POPS FOR THE COUNTIES IN WEST
TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER... HOWEVER MOST OF THE PRECIP
WILL STAY FAR EAST OF OUR CWA. ABNORMALLY DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
A BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE MIDSOUTH
THURSDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
PARKED OVER THE MIDSOUTH.
LONG TERM...
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY THE WEEKEND
AND ABOVE AVERAGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS
EAST AND FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. MODELS AGREE ON A MORE DYNAMIC WEATHER
PATTERN SETTING UP BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP TROF APPROACHES THE
REGION.
JPM3
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS NEAR MEM
EARLY...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AND DRY WEATHER THIS PERIOD. NORTH
WINDS WILL BE THE ONLY MINOR CONCERN WITH A FEW GUSTS POSSIBLE
EARLY...THEN FREQUENT LIGHT GUSTS EXPECTED LATER IN THE PERIOD.
JAB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
626 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015/
UPDATE...
ALSO INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MENTION OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST AR. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
DETECTED WITH WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY.
UPDATE... /ISSUED 456 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015/
SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ARE
MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NORTHEAST AR. LIGHT RAIN WAS
REPORTED AT CORNING AR WHILE WALNUT RIDGE AR REPORTED A WIND GUST
TO NEAR 40 MPH WITH ONE OF THE SHOWERS. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS
THESE SHOWERS CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
NORTHEAST AR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WHILE THE HRRR DOES MOVE
THEM INTO MEMPHIS...THE RAP DISSIPATES THE SHOWERS WITH SUNSET
BEFORE THEY REACH MEMPHIS. WILL MONITOR THIS...BUT FOR NOW ONLY
INCLUDED THE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST AR.
JCL
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015/
CURRENTLY AS OF 3PM... TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 70S THROUGHOUT THE
MIDSOUTH FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE SATURDAY BUT STILL ARE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW LATE APRIL NORMALS. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
THROUGHOUT THE CWA BUT THAT WILL SOON CHANGE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE REVOLVING AROUND A CLOSED LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION INCREASING CLOUDINESS MAINLY IN
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE MIDSOUTH. KNQA RADAR IS
ALREADY DEPICTING LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTHEASTERN
CWA... HOWEVER IT IS LIKELY THAT THIS PRECIPITATION IS NOT
REACHING THE GROUND DUE TO REALLY DRY SURFACE AIR IN PLACE.
SHORT TERM...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION OVER NIGHT. MODELS AGREE ON VERY LITTLE QPF
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AND THE MAJORITY OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL STAY DRY.
HOWEVER.. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR DEPICTS SOME VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTH
WEST MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING.
ON A BROADER SCALE... AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WHILE UPPER RIDGING TAKES PLACE NEAR THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREATS LAKES
WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION JUST EAST OF
THE MIDSOUTH ON THURSDAY. THE ONLY EFFECT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON
OUR CWA IS SLIGHTLY RAISED POPS FOR THE COUNTIES IN WEST
TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER... HOWEVER MOST OF THE PRECIP
WILL STAY FAR EAST OF OUR CWA. ABNORMALLY DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
A BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE MIDSOUTH
THURSDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
PARKED OVER THE MIDSOUTH.
LONG TERM...
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY THE WEEKEND
AND ABOVE AVERAGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS
EAST AND FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. MODELS AGREE ON A MORE DYNAMIC WEATHER
PATTERN SETTING UP BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP TROF APPROACHES THE
REGION.
JPM3
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS NEAR MEM
EARLY...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AND DRY WEATHER THIS PERIOD. NORTH
WINDS WILL BE THE ONLY MINOR CONCERN WITH A FEW GUSTS POSSIBLE
EARLY...THEN FREQUENT LIGHT GUSTS EXPECTED LATER IN THE PERIOD.
JAB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
403 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...
THE COLD RAIN EVENT WILL WIND DOWN TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW SPINS EAST
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS MORE OR LESS MAINTAINING CURRENT INTENSITY. THE
UPPER LOW DIPPED MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN FORECASTS 24 HOURS AGO...
PERHAPS BY AS MUCH AS 100+ MILES...AND WAS CENTERED JUST EAST OF
SWEETWATER AT 08Z. THIS SOUTHWARD TRACK HAD A LARGE IMPACT ON THE
RAIN SHIELD OVERNIGHT. IT ALSO WILL IMPACT A WEAKENING DEFORMATION
ZONE LIGHT PRECIPITATION AXIS THAT STILL WAS SPREADING LIGHT SHOWERS
INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WELL NORTH OF THE PRIMARY RAIN
SHIELD. SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS EDGE THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD EAST BUT
ALSO ARE LATCHING ONTO THE DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS TODAY. WE ARE
RELUCTANT TO BUY INTO THE WET LOOKING HRRR RUN...WHICH KEEPS SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA MOST OF THE DAY...BUT
HAVE TRENDED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER CHANCES FURTHER WEST AND A BIT LATER
IN THE DAY THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A CLEARING AND DRYING TREND
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PUT CONSIDERABLE STRESS ON THIS LINGERING
DEFORMATION AXIS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND BY EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON
SHOULD NOT LEAVE ANY DOUBT ABOUT CONTROL FOR OUR AREA. NORTHEAST
WINDS ALSO WILL NOT BE DONE UNTIL LATER TODAY...WITH SPEEDS CLOSE TO
20 MPH AT TIMES. STILL FAIRLY RAW THEREFORE FOR THE END OF APRIL.
PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY RETAINED THOUGH MAY BE OPTIMISTIC
IF CLEARING IS DELAYED IN THE EAST IN PARTICULAR.
TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COOL WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF. MID 30S
EXPECTED NORTHWEST ZONES WITH UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE ON THE CAPROCK.
HEATING SEASON NOT QUITE OVER WITH. BUT WHAT A PLEASANT REBOUND
COMING OUR WAY AFTER TODAY... RMCQUEEN
.LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH WILL OCCUR IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT AFTER TODAY UNTIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE WAKE OF TODAYS UPPER LEVEL LOW WE WILL BE
LEFT WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK WHICH WILL IN TURN LEAD TO WARMING TEMPERATURES. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY IN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW.
HOWEVER...THIS SHORT WAVE WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE IS A POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN SCENARIO FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS SHOWN IN THE MODELS TO
STALL OUT OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW GOOD
AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING ANOTHER SOUTHWEST US TROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AS THIS TROUGH APPROACHES...SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL BE
DRAWN BACK INTO THE AREA. THIS TROUGH MAY THEN TAKE A NEGATIVE
TILT AS IT DEEPENS TO THE WEST OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THIS IS
STILL AROUND TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK...THIS WOULD PROVIDE
THE AREA WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 61 36 72 43 / 10 0 0 0
TULIA 62 38 72 44 / 20 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 61 39 72 45 / 20 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 62 39 73 46 / 10 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 62 40 74 47 / 20 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 61 40 73 46 / 10 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 62 41 74 46 / 10 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 66 44 75 49 / 20 0 0 0
SPUR 62 43 73 49 / 20 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 62 43 74 49 / 30 10 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1238 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
.AVIATION...
CURRENTLY ALL TAF SITES ARE VFR AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. BY 09Z AT AUS AND 12Z ELSEWHERE MVFR STRATUS WILL
MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THE DECK WILL BE PERSISTENT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...RISING TO VFR BY LATE IN
THE DAY.
THE COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
CURRENTLY. WINDS ARE ALREADY OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN SPEED OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE TOMORROW DURING THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS WE GET INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/
UPDATE...
ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS ARE PUSHING TO THE EAST
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF LLANO AND BURNET
COUNTIES TONIGHT. STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE PEA TO DIME SIZED
HAIL. OTHERWISE...A COOL NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE HILL COUNTRY
AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/
AVIATION... /00Z TAF UPDATE/
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ABOUT 80 MILES EAST OF I-35 SHOULD DEFLECT
ANY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION FOR THIS EVENING...AND ONLY A FEW
ELEVATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL TX TONIGHT. THIS IS
REFLECTED WELL IN RECENT HRRR RUNS...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY
CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES ON TAF SITES. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIP
THROUGH THE AREA WITH A GRADUAL NORTHERLY WIND INCREASE THIS
EVENING WITH NOT A SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT OR DRAMATIC WIND
INCREASE. UNDER THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER N TX RESIDES LOWER
LEVEL SATURATION THROUGH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT RAINS...AND
THIS LOWER CATEGORY SHOULD DRAG MVFR CIGS INTO AUSTIN SOMETIME
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO SAT/SSF BY DAYBREAK. MEANWHILE...DRT
SHOULD SEE BETTER DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MIXING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
HAVE VFR CIGS DEVELOP IF THEY FORM AT ALL.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
LOOKING AT THE 27/19Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS DRAPED ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES...LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG
THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 70S AND
80S WHILE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU TO NEAR 70 NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS.
ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LOW IS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE RED RIVER
OVERNIGHT. SOME WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL SPREAD INTO
THE HILL COUNTRY AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND WILL
RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS DRY AND
COOL AIR SPREADS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES
TO MOVE EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS A TRAILING TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WE/LL KEEP ANY RAIN CHANCES LOW (20%) AND
CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF A FREDERICKSBURG TO GIDDINGS LINE ON
TUESDAY. WE/LL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WOULD NOT
BE TOO SURPRISED IF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TRIED TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTH. GIVEN THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER...ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD
LIKELY EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER ALONG
WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 40S AND 50S WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE
COOLEST SPOTS WILL BE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN I-35 CORRIDOR. WE DO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY
FLOW BEGINNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION. THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL TRANSITION FROM NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WE/LL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED
TO THE COASTAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES SPREADING
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 69 52 75 53 79 / 10 - 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 68 46 74 49 78 / 10 - 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 71 50 75 52 79 / - - 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 64 47 74 52 77 / 20 - 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 72 52 78 54 84 / - - 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 65 48 74 51 77 / 20 - 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 49 75 52 80 / - - 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 69 49 74 52 78 / - - 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 70 49 74 52 77 / 10 - 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 72 51 75 53 79 / - - 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 73 52 75 54 80 / - - 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
506 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015
FOG HAS PRETTY MUCH HELD OFF OVER THE CWA AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING
AND DENSE FOG FORMATION LOOKING LESS LIKELY OR WIDESPREAD. HAVE
OPTED TO CANCEL THE DENSE FOG ADVY GIVEN THESE TRENDS THOUGH
PATCHY AREAS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE.
BEYOND THAT DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE CWA TODAY
THROUGH WEDS AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION.
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT GRADUALLY THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS
SUBSIDENT FLOW OCCURS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDS NIGHT.
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A COOL FRONT ACROSS THE
CWA EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES OF COOLING. UPSLOPE
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SCTD SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTRMS TO FORM IN THE AFTERNOON OVER SE WY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015
COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY EVENING OUT WEST. FAIRLY QUICK MOVING FRONT
THOUGH WITH NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED...SO SNOW SHOULD NOT
BE A PROBLEM. SHOWERS SPREAD EAST ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. SOME DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THIS FRONT. GFS FURTHER SOUTH WITH
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING. OPTED FOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND
INCREASED POPS OVER GUIDANCE.
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WITH
PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 504 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SOME AREAS.
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE HAS THESE AREAS BREAKING UP SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. LAST TO LIFT WILL BE KCYS AS A SOUTHEAST WIND PREVAILS.
ALL AIRPORTS SHOULD BE VFR BY 16Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015
CONCERNS TO REMAIN LOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NON-CRITICAL AND FUELS MOISTENED BY
RECENT GOOD RAINS/SNOWS. MAINLY DRY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS THEN
CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN THURSDAY ONWARD.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...RE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
251 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015
FOG HAS PRETTY MUCH HELD OFF OVER THE CWA AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING
AND DENSE FOG FORMATION LOOKING LESS LIKELY OR WIDESPREAD. HAVE
OPTED TO CANCEL THE DENSE FOG ADVY GIVEN THESE TRENDS THOUGH
PATCHY AREAS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE.
BEYOND THAT DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE CWA TODAY
THROUGH WEDS AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION.
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT GRADUALLY THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS
SUBSIDENT FLOW OCCURS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDS NIGHT.
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A COOL FRONT ACROSS THE
CWA EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES OF COOLING. UPSLOPE
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SCTD SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTRMS TO FORM IN THE AFTERNOON OVER SE WY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015
COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY EVENING OUT WEST. FAIRLY QUICK MOVING FRONT
THOUGH WITH NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED...SO SNOW SHOULD NOT
BE A PROBLEM. SHOWERS SPREAD EAST ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. SOME DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THIS FRONT. GFS FURTHER SOUTH WITH
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING. OPTED FOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND
INCREASED POPS OVER GUIDANCE.
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WITH
PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM MDT MON APR 27 2015
A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST TONIGHT WITH RESPECT TO FOG/LOW CEILING
POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND WESTERN NE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO IS RESULTING IN LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...WHILE THE HRRR AND SEVERAL OTHER FORECAST
TOOLS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 09Z FOR KCYS AND
SEVERAL PANHANDLE SITES. WOULD LIKE TO SEE A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT
TO WINDS FOR THIS TO OCCUR...SO TEND TO THINK MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE MORE APPROPRIATE FOR THE 06Z TAFS. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE FOR ALL TERMINALS AFTER 15Z TUE...BECOMING VFR BY AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015
CONCERNS TO REMAIN LOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NON-CRITICAL AND FUELS MOISTENED BY
RECENT GOOD RAINS/SNOWS. MAINLY DRY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS THEN
CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN THURSDAY ONWARD.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...RE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1144 PM MDT WED APR 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT WED APR 29 2015
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY HAS SUPPRESSED CONVECTION OVER
THE AREA. HOWEVER...HRRR AND RAP STILL SUGGEST A SMALL WINDOW FOR
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS
AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SEEING SOME CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN SAN JUANS AND
SOUTHERN SANGRES...SO WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW GRADE POPS FOR THESE
AREAS. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS.
ON THURSDAY...A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NRN U.S. ROCKIES
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SEND A PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT INTO
THE PIKES PEAK REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE A ROUND OF ISOLATED
TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
MEANWHILE...WITH THE BOUNDARY STALLING ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO THIS
WILL ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
HIGH BASED...WITH ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING THE PRIMARY
STORM THREATS. -KT
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT WED APR 29 2015
...INCREASING HEAVY RAIN THREAT EARLY NEXT WEEK...
OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. A COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW WHICH
WILL HELP GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FRONTAL PUSH OVER THE PLAINS WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
COOLER WX ON FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S OVER THE PLAINS.
LOW CLOUDS OVER THE PLAINS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING...
AND INCREASED UPSLOPE OVER THE PLAINS FRI AFTERNOON SHOULD ALSO
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVE. A
COUPLE STORMS MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THE BURN SCARS FRI AFTERNOON AND EVE...BUT STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING
AT A DECENT CLIP AND WILL DISSIPATE OFF TO THE EAST FRI EVE.
OVER THE WEEKEND...INCREASED ZONAL FLOW WILL BRING JUNE-LIKE TEMPS
TO THE REGION...WITH MID 80S A POSSIBILITY FOR THE WARM SPOTS
OVER THE PLAINS. EXPECT DIURNAL STORMS AGAIN...FORMING OVER THE
HIGHER TRRN AND SHIFTING TO THE PLAINS IN THE EVENING. WILL SEE
CONVECTION COVERAGE INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A STRONGER
SHORT-WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE PACNW AND THEN THROUGH THE NRN
ROCKIES.
BY MONDAY...A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE BAJA REGION WILL BEGIN MOVING
INTO THE DESERT SW...AND INCREASED SRLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS
WILL BRING INCREASED MOISTURE TO SE CO. SO...HEAVY RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY...AS THE
LOW MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY
RAIN BUT INCREASING SHEAR COULD ALSO BRING A FEW STRONG TO SVR
STORMS AS THE LOW GETS CLOSER. AFTER TUE...MODELS DIVERGE A BIT
ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOW EJECTS TO OUR NORTH AND EAST...AND ALSO THE
IMPACT OF A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PACNW.
SO...UNCERTAINTY IS PRETTY HIGH BEYOND TUE...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE
UNSETTLED THROUGH AT LEAST A GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1144 PM MDT WED APR 29 2015
UPPER RIDGING WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE
KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
158 AM EDT THU APR 30 2015
.AVIATION...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. REGIONAL
WINDS FORECAST TO BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE AROUND 13-15Z THEN
SLOWLY DECREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AROUND 18-20Z. REGIONAL
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LINGERING LOW LEVEL STRATUS EARLY THIS
MORNING. FOR ALL TERMINALS THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AND
VERY BRIEF IFR CEILINGS FROM TIME TO TIME. WILL AMEND IF/AS
NECESSARY.
60
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 751 PM EDT WED APR 29 2015/
UPDATE...
THE MAIN SHIELD OF RAIN HAS PUSHED WELL OFF TO THE SOUTH AND
THERE WILL BE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT MAINLY OVER
THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST INTO
THE WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 736 PM EDT WED APR 29 2015/
AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST TONIGHT OVER THE TAF SITES WITH
SPEEDS DECREASING FROM AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING TO AROUND 5
KNOTS LATE TONIGHT. THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVER MOST OF THE
TAF SITES TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR KPBI WHERE THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS UNTIL 02Z. THEREFORE...VCSH WILL CONTINUE AT KPBI TAF SITE
UNTIL 02Z THEN GO DRY FOR REST OF TONIGHT. THE VIS SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES.
HOWEVER...THE CEILING COULD FALL INTO THE MVFR CONDITIONS FOR AN
HOUR OR TWO THIS EVENING BUT THEN BECOME VFR FOR LATE TONIGHT.
AVIATION...54/BNB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM EDT WED APR 29 2015/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE STILL SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS ACROSS
VIRTUALLY ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. POCKETS OF CLEARING HAVE SHOWN
BRIEFLY ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA WHERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED. THE DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE THE RESULT OF CONTINUING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE KEYS DUE TO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. THE COLD
FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING
WITH A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF IT...BUT THE THREAT IS LOOKING LESS
LIKELY. THE LATEST HRRR WHICH HAS INITIALIZED WELL THROUGH THE
MORNING KEEPS THE AREA NEARLY RAIN FREE LATER THIS EVENING.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD THEN CLEAR THE AREA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY TAKING VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION
WITH IT. BY FRIDAY MORNING...ANOTHER COLD BUT DRY FRONT WILL
SURGE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE NORTH AS AN H5 TROUGH IS STILL
EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTH AND INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL BRING A
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. MOST MODEL BLENDS ARE DEPICTING DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
50S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE DRY FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO QUICKLY PUSH
TO THE EAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
MORE EASTERLY FLOW REGIME TO PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS MODELS
DEPICT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
AND PUSHING TO THE NORTHEAST AND TOWARD THE BAHAMAS. THIS WILL
RETURN DECENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
MIDWEEK.
AVIATION...
CLOUDS ARE STILL DRIFTING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. VCSH IS INCLUDED FOR ALL AIRPORTS
UNTIL 00Z APR 30. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM 220 TO 280 AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE CLOUD COVER IS NOT
ALLOWING FOR SURFACE HEATING. WITHOUT SURFACE HEATING AND THE
LOW LEVEL COOLING FROM THE RAINS EARLIER, THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
VERY LIKELY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, WE WILL AMEND THE TAFS AS
NEEDED.
MARINE...
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE ATLANTIC WATERS OF BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA...WILL HOLD OFF
FOR NOW AND COVER WITH SCEC. WINDS WILL THEN TURN MORE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 84 66 85 65 / 10 10 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 84 67 85 69 / 10 10 0 0
MIAMI 85 67 86 68 / 20 10 10 0
NAPLES 82 67 83 62 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1146 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 853 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015
UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO DIVE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE ARE ABOUT
AS WIDESPREAD AS THEY HAVE BEEN, WHICH IS NOT SAYING MUCH, AND
WILL BRING SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TO THE EASTERN 2/3 OR
SO OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER, DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST IL. GOING FORECAST WAS IN REASONABLE SHAPE OVERALL,
BUT HAVE UPDATED FOR THE LATEST OVERNIGHT TRENDS. THE MOST NOTABLE
CHANGE WAS TO DECREASE THE ALREADY LOW POPS A BIT MORE BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEAST MO. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD INTO EAST
CENTRAL INDIANA BY NOON THU AND TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER SYSTEM
TO AFFECT CENTRAL/SE IL NEXT 24 HOURS ESPECIALLY EASTERN IL.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH BASED CUMULUS CLOUDS 7-9K FT WEST OF
HIGHWAY 51 WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER EASTERN IL REST OF
TODAY. AS NEXT SHORT WAVE DROPS SOUTHWARD, SHORT RANGE MODELS LIKE
HRRR AND RAP DEVELOP ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL IL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND SHIFT IT SE LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. CONTINUE 20-30% CHANCES OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING
(ISOLATED THUNDER NORTH OF I- 72 UNTIL SUNSET) AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS EAST OF I-55 OVERNIGHT. LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIGHT (LESS THAN A TENTH INCH) IF THEY HAPPEN.
LOWS OVERNIGHT RANGE FROM LOWER 40S FROM LINCOLN NORTH TO THE
UPPER 40S SE OF I-70. NNE WINDS OF 5-10 MPH TONIGHT WITH NO FOG
EXPECTED TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH, EAST OF THE AREA,
WHICH WILL KEEP THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE CWA THURSDAY,
KEEPING US WITH NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE EAST FOR THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
SOUTH. ONCE THAT PASSES THURSDAY EVENING DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
BEGINNING FRIDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS RIDGE WILL DROP
SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THERE FOR SATURDAY.
HOWEVER, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THE
WEEKEND. A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. ANY PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WAVES SHOULD REMAIN
WEST OF THE AREA AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM AROUND NORMAL FOR THURSDAY
TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO THE SOUTHEAST US BY SATURDAY
NIGHT, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO BEGIN TO TRANSITION
TO A MORE ZONAL PATTER FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN TO THE CWA, BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES. IN ADDITION, ANY PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH
ADDITIONAL WEAK MID LEVEL WAVES WILL HOLD TOGETHER LONGER AND BE
ABLE TO REACH INTO THE CWA. SO WILL KEEP THE POPS IN THE FORECAST
BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. WITH THE FLOW BECOMING ZONAL ANY SURFACE FRONT WILL
BECOME SOMEWHAT STATIONARY OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE CWA THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE, IT LOOKS LIKE
LIKELY POPS IS WARRANTED FOR THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA, WITH
CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTH, AND EITHER NO POPS OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THE SOUTHEAST.
TEMPS WILL BECOME WARMER, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA, WHICH SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH PART OF
THE WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS PATTERN.
BELIEVE GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE ON THE WARM SIDE FOR DAYTIME HIGHS,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE THERE WILL BE PCPN AND CLOUDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL
ILLINOIS TERMINALS THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DIVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THESE
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED VFR CIGS NOW APPEAR LIKELY TO HANG ON FOR
SEVERAL MORE HOURS, LONGER THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
EVENTUALLY, SKIES SHOULD CLEAR TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH
SOME ADDITIONAL CIGS MY DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING, ESPECIALLY
OVER TOWARD KCMI. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD, BECOMING GUSTY AT TIMES DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS THURSDAY
DURING PEAK MIXING.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BAK
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
135 AM EDT THU APR 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT THU APR 30 2015
JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE SKY AND POPS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE NIGHT...MAINLY TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 DO BRING PCPN INTO
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE SO DID NOT
BACK OFF TOO DRAMATICALLY. ALSO NUDGED THE HOURLY T/TD GRIDS
TOWARD THE LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE...CURRENT OBS...AND TRENDS.
THESE GRID UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1035 PM EDT WED APR 29 2015
CONTINUING TO SEE PATCHES OF CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS EVENING WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS AREA OF CLOUD COVER TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST WILL SLOWLY ADVECT INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE THINNING
CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED A FEW OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS TO DECOUPLE AND
COOL QUICKER THIS EVENING. THEREFORE MADE UPDATE TO
TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...AND CLOUDS THIS UPDATE TO BETTER REPRESENT THE
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO OPTED TO SLOW RAIN SHOWER CHANCES
DOWN SLIGHTLY GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 PM EDT WED APR 29 2015
CONTINUING TO SEE PATCHES OF CUMULUS ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS STATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS BRINGING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT TIMES TO
PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN
PLACE AT THE SURFACE. NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE
WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...AND SKY FOR THE
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED APR 29 2015
A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW IS CURRENTLY PUSHING EWD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
COAST AS A NORTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW TRACKS SWD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL TRACK INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK
THAT WILL LOWER THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. TOMORROW...THE CLOSED LOW WILL
QUICKLY APPROACH EAST KENTUCKY AND THEN MOVE OVER OUR AREA BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH PLENTY OF MID LEVEL ENERGY AND
A CORE OF COLDER 500 MB TEMPS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN EXIT KENTUCKY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST.
AT THE SURFACE...SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY DAWN IN THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE AREA AS THE SURFACE FEATURE LINKED TO THE CLOSED LOW
MOVES INTO KENTUCKY. LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CAPE AND FALLING LI/S AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVERHEAD. AS A RESULT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING...AND LIKELY BY THE AFTERNOON DUE TO BETTER INSTABILITY.
HAVE UPGRADED THUNDERSTORMS TO LIKELY FROM CHANCES BETWEEN 18-22Z.
GRAUPEL IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY FROM ANY STRONGER STORM SO WILL KEEP
MENTION OF THIS IN THE HWO. THE CLOUDS AND CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE THURSDAY. THE CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL
COME TO AN END ON THURSDAY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED APR 29 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH WILL DEPART TO THE EAST OF THE
REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING
MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY IN ITS WAKE. GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES ARE
EXPECTED ON AVERAGE FROM THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN
FACT...RECENT MODEL RUNS POINT TOWARD THE RIDGING REMAINING IN
CONTROL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ON FRIDAY...ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED...AND
MAINLY IN THE MORNING TO MIDDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEPARTS.
ONCE THE UPPER SYSTEM DEPARTS TO START THE WEEKEND...WARMER AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. EVEN A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES
WILL DROP INTO THE REGION IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT TO START THE
WEEKEND...AND SOME OF THE GFS AND ECMWF RUNS GENERATE SOME
PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. HOWEVER...ATTM WE DO NOT
EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM TIME
TO TIME OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE RIDGING SHOULD KEEP A FRONTAL ZONE NORTH OF THE OH RIVER NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH ASSOCIATED MCS ACTIVITY LIKELY REMAINING
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...FROM EARLY IN THE WEEK UNTIL AT LEAST
MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM SPOTS MAY NEAR THE 80 DEGREE
MARK DURING THAT TIME. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING NEAR THE VA BORDER
MIGHT BE THE ONLY OTHER REAL TRIGGER FOR ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION
PRIOR TO AT LEAST MIDWEEK...BUT THAT IS DOUBTFUL AND HAVE ONLY
WENT WITH ISOLATED POPS IN THAT AREA. EVEN FOR WEDNESDAY...WE HAVE
ONLY USED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT THU APR 30 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT AND THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOSED LOW DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO KY DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS
TO THE SYM TAF SITE TOWARD DAYBREAK FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING SOUTH AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY...UNDER THE AUSPICES OF INCREASING INSTABILITY.
THE STRONGEST SHOWER OR STORM COULD HAVE MVFR CIGS AND VIS FOR A
BRIEF TIME...BUT THE PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR...SO JUST
WENT WITH A TEMPO FOR THESE TIMES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING
BEFORE THE INSTABILITY WANES. AS THE SFC WAVE PASSES TO THE EAST
LOOK FOR CIGS TO FALL TO MVFR OR LOWER LATER THURSDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUING LOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS...OUTSIDE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORM...WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS...GENERALLY FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JVM/GREIF
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
358 AM EDT THU APR 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE TIGHT MIDLEVEL POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY AND ACCOMPANYING
MIDLEVEL COLD POOL CONTINUES TO DROP STRAIGHT SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. CONVERGENCE OF THE
MASS FIELD IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FORWARD EASTERN FLANK OF THIS COLD
POOL AND INCREASING EASTERLY SYSTEM RELATIVE FLOW HAS RESULTED IN
POSITIVE CONTRIBUTIONS OF BOTH TILTING AND MIDLEVEL STRETCHING
DEFORMATION. THE COMBINED FORCING HAS RESULTED IN A WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHGIAN FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. THE RECENT TREND OF THE RADAR OUTPUT HAS BEEN FOR A FOCUS OF
THE RAIN SHOWERS DOWN TO DETROIT AND THE RIVERS. RADAR ECHOES HAVE
BEEN HOLDING STEADY IN ADDITION TO BANDS OF CONTINUED CLOUDTOP
COOLING IN IR IMAGERY. ALTHOUGH RADAR ESTIMATES LIKELY CONTAIN SOME
BRIGHTBAND CONTAMINATION...SOME AREAS OVER WAYNE AND MONROE COUNTIES
WILL LIKELY REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GREATER THAN .5 INCH. AS A
RESULT...INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL THROUGH 12Z.
MODEL DATA SUPPORTS BOTH CENTERING AND CONTRACTING THE STRETCHING
DEFORMATION AXIS OVER EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AROUND
12Z...BEFORE SLOWLY PIVOTING TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...THE SOLUTION SPACE OF THE
NAM/RUC/ECWMF AND HRRR HAVE THE MOST TRUSTWORTHY OF OUTPUT WITH
REGARDS TO QPF PLACEMENT. THEREFORE...EXPECT A WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
OF RAIN SHOWERS TO HOLD FIRM THROUGH 14 OR 15Z...BEFORE SCATTERING
OUT. SOME HI RESOLUTION CONVECTION ALLOWING NWP ALONG WITH THE HRRR
IS ADVERTISING A SOLUTION FOR A RAIN SHOWER CHANCE ONCE AGAIN DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTING THAT RAIN ACTIVITY
OVER PORTIONS OF PENNSYLVANIA RESIDE WITHIN A MOISTURE AXIS THAT
WILL GET DRAWN NORTHWARD AND THEN ADVECTED WESTWARD TOWARND THE LAKE
MICHIGAN PV ANOMALY. THEREFORE...IT IS THIS ACTIVITY THAT COULD
BACKDOOR ACROSS THE DETROIT RIVER/LAKE ST CLAIR SOMETIME AFTER 20Z
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
BE STRUGGLING EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL ONLY ACCOUNT FOR THIS
WITH A CHANCE POP BETWEEN 16-00Z. WITH THE OPAQUE CLOUD...TRENDED
HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THE SOUTHERN
1/3RD OF THE CWA.
SUBSIDENCE WILL WRAP BACK INTO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN QUICKLY AFTER
00Z TONIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL TO SOUTH OF THE OHIO/MICHIGAN STATELINE. WILL ACTUALLY SEE
SOME MINOR WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT...KEEPING LOWS IN THE 40S
FOR MANY LOCATIONS (RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE).
&&
.LONG TERM...
WARMER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
CURRENT UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE EAST COAST AND BEYOND AND UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE AREA AS THE MAIN WESTERLIES REFOCUS
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN CANADA AND UPPER TROUGHING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS REPLACED BY MODEST ZONAL FLOW. WITH THE
STORM TRACK SO FAR NORTH INTO THE WEEKEND...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED INTO MUCH OF SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES BUILDING FROM THE MID
60S FRIDAY TO 70 OR BETTER FOR MOST LOCATIONS BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
WHILE MILD WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...THE CHANCE
OF RAIN...AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES...WILL INCREASE AS A SERIES OF
STRONG SHORTWAVE BUCKLE THE STRONG ZONAL FLOW OVER MID NOAM SLIGHTLY
AND ALLOWS THE MEAN FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ALONG THE SWATH OF
WESTERLIES TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WHERE IT WILL
REMAIN UNTIL MIDWEEK. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WESTERN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRITISH COLUMBIA PICK
UP AN UPPER LOW MEANDERING OVER CALIFORNIA/FOUR CORNERS. DOWNSTREAM
OF THIS FEATURE...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND
MAINTAIN MILD WEATHER GENERALLY ABOVE AVERAGE BY SEVERAL DEGREES.
DURING THIS TIME...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BECOME MORE
SCATTERED AS THE FOCUS OF MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION SHIFTS BACK
NORTH FOR AT LEAST A DAY OR TWO LATE NEXT WEEK. WITH THE TRANSITION
TO A MORE MODERATE PATTERN...THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF FROST
OVER FREEZING TEMPERATURES FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO MID/LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS
FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE LOW PIVOTS EAST TO SOUTHEAST
TO THE MID ATLANTIC SHORELINE. WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
LIGHT...10 TO 15 KNOT FLOW LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS WILL PRODUCE SOME ENHANCED WAVE DEVELOPMENT. THAT
SAID...WAVES SHOULD STILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERION FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SMALL AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
THROUGH THE AREA. LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THIS HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 140 AM EDT THU APR 30 2015
LOCALIZED LOW LEVEL DYNAMICS UNDER BROADER DEFORMATION FORCING HAS
RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
CIGS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE.
GIVEN ADDITIONAL TIGHTENING OF THE THERMAL AND MOISTURE GRADIENTS
OVERHEAD IN ADDITION TO TOP DOWN SATURATION...MVFR CIGS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS INCREASE IN ASCENT WILL DIVE STRAIGHT
SOUTHWARD OVER LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT. THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS WILL
REMAIN WITHIN A PIVOT POINT WHICH SUPPORTS A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS
THROUGH 14-15Z. MODEL DATA THEN SUPPORTS A SIGNIFICANT DOWNTREND IN
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...MODELS DO
SUPPORT PESKY SHOWERS HANGING AROUND FOR THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
DETROIT TERMINALS AS THE MOISTURE AXIS WILL BE SLOW TO STRIP OUT.
FOR DTW...FORCING WILL MAXIMIZE OVER THE DETROIT TERMINAL OVER THE
NEXT 6 HOURS. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL AND REMAIN BELOW 5 KFT AGL
MOMENTARILLY. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE
RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TO AROUND 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS TO
RETURN LATE THURSDAY.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CIGS AOB 5KFT THIS MORNING.
* LOW FOR CIGS BACK ABOVE 5KFT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....DG
MARINE.......DG
AVIATION.....CB
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
344 AM EDT THU APR 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
VARIABLE CLOUDS, DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE OF THUMB ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WARM CONSIDERABLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN TO THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT THURSDAY...ANOTHER PLEASANT MID-SPRING DAY ON
TAP AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SANDWICHED ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN MARITIME LOW PRESSURE AND ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY DROPPING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. INDEED AFTER PERUSAL OF THIS
MORNING`S DATA IT APPEARS TODAY WILL NEARLY MIMIC YESTERDAY`S
CONDITIONS. MEAN LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN TRANSPORT
OCCASIONAL CLOUD COVER OF MARITIME ORIGIN SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
AREA, CLOUDS BEING MOST PREVALENT ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES.
MEAN 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY SO HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S EAST AND MID TO
UPPER 60S FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WEST LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK.
CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SPRINKLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF OUR EASTERN VT COUNTIES TODAY, BUT BY AND LARGE DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY 5 TO 15 MPH,
HIGHEST IN THE SLV.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT THURSDAY...MORE OF THE SAME BY TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH AND
MEAN PBL FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY LIGHT. WEAK ENERGY SLIDING
SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW COULD
PRODUCE A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN TONIGHT, OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD UNDER VARIABLY CLOUDY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING THROUGH THE 60S ON FRIDAY, WARMING INTO THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S BY SATURDAY AS WINDS TREND MORE WESTERLY AND
BEGIN TO USHER IN AN AIRMASS MORE CONTINENTAL IN NATURE. DID OPT
TO UNDERCUT OVERNIGHT LOWS BY JUST A FEW DEGREES (30S TO LOWER
40S) GIVEN FORECAST OF AT LEAST SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND
RECENT WARM BIAS IN THE BLENDED MOS GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 341 AM EDT THURSDAY...IT`S GETTING TO BE A BIT OF A BROKEN
RECORD WITH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN QUITE
CONSISTENT WITH THE WARM SEASONALLY DRY CONDITIONS DOMINATED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND GIVING WAY TO A SURFACE FRONTAL
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON THAT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BRING RAIN
SHOWERS TO NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS IT DROPS SOUTH FROM
CANADA.
SUNDAY THERE WILL BE A MODERATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT KEEPS THE
AREA NICE HIGH AND DRY AS A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE GULF
COAST KEEPS THE EASTERN CONUS CALM AND DRY. LOCALLY WE WILL SEE
LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
HIGH AND TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S WITH LOW 70S
POSSIBLE IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS. MONDAY THAT
HIGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD AND WILL BRING WHAT SHOULD BE A
WONDERFUL DAY ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CREEPING UP INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 70S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
FROM THERE A THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS ZONAL ON TUESDAY AND A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT BRINGS A LIKELY CHANCE OF RAIN AS THE FRONT
DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND. THAT BIT OF PRECIP WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO COOL
SLIGHTLY WHICH WILL BE A TREND NEXT WEEK OF TEMPS ONLY WARMING IN
THE MID WEEK TO SEASONAL MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA.
LOW TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S WITH THE WARMEST OVERNIGHT LOWS OCCURRING
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE FRONT COOLS THE AREA
DOWN SLIGHTLY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE MVFR STRATUS AT MPV AND MVFR/IFR GROUND FOG AT
SLK.
CURRENTLY SKIES CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM CLEAR ACROSS MSS/SLK/BTV TO
SOME HIGH CLOUD OVER PBG AND OVC MID-CLOUDS FOR MPV. EXPECT THESE
TRENDS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT
TO IDEA OF LOWER STRATUS DECK INTRUDING INTO MPV OVERNIGHT AS LOW-
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY, THOUGH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS IN THE
GULF OF MAINE AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOW OVC VFR CEILINGS
4000-5000 FEET. AT SLK, PROJECTED LOW TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW
DEGREES BELOW CROSSOVER TEMPS IN THE MID- 30S UNDER CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHTENING WINDS, SUPPORTING SOME MVFR TO IFR LIGHT FOG IN
LIGHT BL FLOW CONDITIONS. I TRENDED BACK THE TIMING OF THE FOG TO
MATCH MORE OF THE RAP SOUNDING. GIVEN WE ARE STILL IN THE PRE
GREEN UP PHASE THE ONSET OF LIGHT GROUND FOG WILL LIKELY ONLY
OCCUR ONCE WE ARE A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN THE ACTUAL CROSSOVER
TEMP. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY WITH SCT/BKN CLOUDINESS BETWEEN
5000-7000FT. WINDS GENERALLY NORTH/NORTHEAST 5-8 KTS.
OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
06Z FRIDAY - 12Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SOME MVFR SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS A COASTAL LOW PASSES WELL OFFSHORE.
12Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE FOR MVFR SHOWERS AS
LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT HAS BEEN
SPORADICALLY MISSING FROM THE AWOS (AUTOMATED WEATHER OBSERVING
SYSTEM) AT RUTLAND (KRUT) SOUTHERN VERMONT REGIONAL AIRPORT. THE
FAA AOCC HAS BEEN NOTIFIED OF THIS PROBLEM AND HAVE OPENED A
TROUBLE TICKET. THE FAA HAS MAINTENANCE RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE
AWOS AT RUTLAND VERMONT. NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME AS
TO WHEN THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL AGAIN CONSISTENTLY BE
REPORTED IN THE KRUT OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
331 AM EDT THU APR 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
VARIABLE CLOUDS, DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE OF THUMB ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WARM CONSIDERABLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN TO THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT THURSDAY...ANOTHER PLEASANT MID-SPRING DAY ON
TAP AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SANDWICHED ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN MARITIME LOW PRESSURE AND ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY DROPPING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. INDEED AFTER PERUSAL OF THIS
MORNING`S DATA IT APPEARS TODAY WILL NEARLY MIMIC YESTERDAY`S
CONDITIONS. MEAN LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN TRANSPORT
OCCASIONAL CLOUD COVER OF MARITIME ORIGIN SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
AREA, CLOUDS BEING MOST PREVALENT ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES.
MEAN 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY SO HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S EAST AND MID TO
UPPER 60S FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WEST LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK.
CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SPRINKLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF OUR EASTERN VT COUNTIES TODAY, BUT BY AND LARGE DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY 5 TO 15 MPH,
HIGHEST IN THE SLV.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT THURSDAY...MORE OF THE SAME BY TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH AND
MEAN PBL FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY LIGHT. WEAK ENERGY SLIDING
SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW COULD
PRODUCE A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN TONIGHT, OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD UNDER VARIABLY CLOUDY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING THROUGH THE 60S ON FRIDAY, WARMING INTO THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S BY SATURDAY AS WINDS TREND MORE WESTERLY AND
BEGIN TO USHER IN AN AIRMASS MORE CONTINENTAL IN NATURE. DID OPT
TO UNDERCUT OVERNIGHT LOWS BY JUST A FEW DEGREES (30S TO LOWER
40S) GIVEN FORECAST OF AT LEAST SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND
RECENT WARM BIAS IN THE BLENDED MOS GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...WEATHER TRENDS GOING INTO THE
EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT GENERALLY DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE FOR THE WEEKEND AND A FAST
ZONAL FLOW GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY WHERE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
EXITING OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN EAST COAST ALONG WITH AND UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS RIDGE REMAIN GENERALLY IN PLACE FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY OFFERING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. I SAY MOSTLY
DRY BECAUSE A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE
SUNDAY WHICH MAY SPARK A FEW SPRINKLES AND/OR SHOWERS, BUT OVERALL
MOISTURE WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE BTV CWA ON MONDAY FULLY
ENTRENCHING THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS OF
THE WEEK EXPECTED BEFORE THE UPPER FLOW TURNS ZONAL AND SOME ENERGY
COMING OUT OF THE MIDWEST LOOKS TO RENEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TOWARDS
MID-WEEK.
BEST PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE A WELCOMED WARMING TREND
WITH TEMPS WARMING ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY. HIGHS
WARM INTO THE 60S AREA-WIDE FOR THE WEEKEND AND FURTHER INTO 70S FOR
MONDAY, BUT SCALE BACK INTO THE 60S TOWARDS MID-WEEK WITH THE THREAT
OF RAIN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S SATURDAY
NIGHT, BUT WARM INTO 40S AREA-WIDE SUNDAY NIGHT, AND FURTHER INTO
THE 50S FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE MVFR STRATUS AT MPV AND MVFR/IFR GROUND FOG AT
SLK.
CURRENTLY SKIES CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM CLEAR ACROSS MSS/SLK/BTV TO
SOME HIGH CLOUD OVER PBG AND OVC MID-CLOUDS FOR MPV. EXPECT THESE
TRENDS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT
TO IDEA OF LOWER STRATUS DECK INTRUDING INTO MPV OVERNIGHT AS LOW-
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY, THOUGH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS IN THE
GULF OF MAINE AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOW OVC VFR CEILINGS
4000-5000 FEET. AT SLK, PROJECTED LOW TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW
DEGREES BELOW CROSSOVER TEMPS IN THE MID- 30S UNDER CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHTENING WINDS, SUPPORTING SOME MVFR TO IFR LIGHT FOG IN
LIGHT BL FLOW CONDITIONS. I TRENDED BACK THE TIMING OF THE FOG TO
MATCH MORE OF THE RAP SOUNDING. GIVEN WE ARE STILL IN THE PRE
GREEN UP PHASE THE ONSET OF LIGHT GROUND FOG WILL LIKELY ONLY
OCCUR ONCE WE ARE A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN THE ACTUAL CROSSOVER
TEMP. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY WITH SCT/BKN CLOUDINESS BETWEEN
5000-7000FT. WINDS GENERALLY NORTH/NORTHEAST 5-8 KTS.
OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
06Z FRIDAY - 12Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SOME MVFR SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS A COASTAL LOW PASSES WELL OFFSHORE.
12Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE FOR MVFR SHOWERS AS
LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT HAS BEEN
SPORADICALLY MISSING FROM THE AWOS (AUTOMATED WEATHER OBSERVING
SYSTEM) AT RUTLAND (KRUT) SOUTHERN VERMONT REGIONAL AIRPORT. THE
FAA AOCC HAS BEEN NOTIFIED OF THIS PROBLEM AND HAVE OPENED A
TROUBLE TICKET. THE FAA HAS MAINTENANCE RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE
AWOS AT RUTLAND VERMONT. NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME AS
TO WHEN THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL AGAIN CONSISTENTLY BE
REPORTED IN THE KRUT OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...DEAL
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
157 AM EDT THU APR 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS
WELL OFF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES COASTLINE AND ANOTHER SYSTEM
PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER BY THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN TO THE AREA.
OUTSIDE OF A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER ON FRIDAY AND SUNDAY MAINLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN A SURFACE FRONT BRINGS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1009 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN REAL GOOD SHAPE
AS CLOUD COVER RANGES FROM CLEAR ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
AND ADIRONDACKS REGION TO OVERCAST IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN VT. NO
MAJOR CHANGES TO THOSE EXPECTATIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EVENING. I DID BACK OFF ON MENTION OF PATCHY DRIZZLE IN SOUTHERN
VT, HOWEVER. HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE RH PROGS SUGGESTED POTENTIAL
FOR LOWER STRATUS AND POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE. HOWEVER IT
APPEARS THAT GUIDANCE IS OVERDOING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, AS METARS
IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE SHOW MOSTLY OVERCAST
LOW-TO-MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS (4 TO 8 THOUSAND FEET AGL).
ASIDE FROM SUBTLE ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS, DEWPOINTS AND
WINDS, REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS UNCHANGED. LOOKING AT LOWS
LARGELY IN THE 40S, THOUGH CLOSER TO MID 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...OVERALL SITUATION REMAINS SIMILAR
THURSDAY WITH CLOSED LOW OFFSHORE AND OTHER CLOSED LOW DIVING TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST. MOISTURE STILL EXPECTED TO BE PINWHEELING
AROUND...SO EXPECTING VARIABLE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A
HIGHER ELEVATION LIGHT SPRINKLE/SHOWER ALSO CAN`T BE RULED OUT.
LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
STRONGER SURGE OF MARINE AIR/BACKDOOR FRONT LOOKS TO ORGANIZE LATER
THURSDAY AND PROPAGATE SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE. SOME OF THAT MARINE AIR MAY AGAIN MAKE IT UP INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT SO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS/PATCHY DRIZZLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
BY FRIDAY...THE SECOND UPPER LOW WILL BE DIGGING WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION...HOWEVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL STILL BE IN THE LARGE SCALE
TROUGH UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW...SO ANOTHER DAY OF VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
IS ON TAP ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED INSTABILITY
RAIN SHOWER OR TWO...MAINLY HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHS WILL BE PRETTY
MUCH IN THE 60S AREA-WIDE ONCE AGAIN. THE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS
TO DEPART ON FRIDAY WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS AND LOWS IN THE 30S/40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...WEATHER TRENDS GOING INTO THE
EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT GENERALLY DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE FOR THE WEEKEND AND A FAST
ZONAL FLOW GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY WHERE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
EXITING OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN EAST COAST ALONG WITH AND UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS RIDGE REMAIN GENERALLY IN PLACE FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY OFFERING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. I SAY MOSTLY
DRY BECAUSE A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE
SUNDAY WHICH MAY SPARK A FEW SPRINKLES AND/OR SHOWERS, BUT OVERALL
MOISTURE WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE BTV CWA ON MONDAY FULLY
ENTRENCHING THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS OF
THE WEEK EXPECTED BEFORE THE UPPER FLOW TURNS ZONAL AND SOME ENERGY
COMING OUT OF THE MIDWEST LOOKS TO RENEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TOWARDS
MID-WEEK.
BEST PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE A WELCOMED WARMING TREND
WITH TEMPS WARMING ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY. HIGHS
WARM INTO THE 60S AREA-WIDE FOR THE WEEKEND AND FURTHER INTO 70S FOR
MONDAY, BUT SCALE BACK INTO THE 60S TOWARDS MID-WEEK WITH THE THREAT
OF RAIN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S SATURDAY
NIGHT, BUT WARM INTO 40S AREA-WIDE SUNDAY NIGHT, AND FURTHER INTO
THE 50S FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE MVFR STRATUS AT MPV AND MVFR/IFR GROUND FOG AT
SLK.
CURRENTLY SKIES CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM CLEAR ACROSS MSS/SLK/BTV TO
SOME HIGH CLOUD OVER PBG AND OVC MID-CLOUDS FOR MPV. EXPECT THESE
TRENDS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT
TO IDEA OF LOWER STRATUS DECK INTRUDING INTO MPV OVERNIGHT AS LOW-
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY, THOUGH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS IN THE
GULF OF MAINE AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOW OVC VFR CEILINGS
4000-5000 FEET. AT SLK, PROJECTED LOW TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW
DEGREES BELOW CROSSOVER TEMPS IN THE MID- 30S UNDER CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHTENING WINDS, SUPPORTING SOME MVFR TO IFR LIGHT FOG IN
LIGHT BL FLOW CONDITIONS. I TRENDED BACK THE TIMING OF THE FOG TO
MATCH MORE OF THE RAP SOUNDING. GIVEN WE ARE STILL IN THE PRE
GREEN UP PHASE THE ONSET OF LIGHT GROUND FOG WILL LIKELY ONLY
OCCUR ONCE WE ARE A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN THE ACTUAL CROSSOVER
TEMP. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY WITH SCT/BKN CLOUDINESS BETWEEN
5000-7000FT. WINDS GENERALLY NORTH/NORTHEAST 5-8 KTS.
OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
06Z FRIDAY - 12Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SOME MVFR SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS A COASTAL LOW PASSES WELL OFFSHORE.
12Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE FOR MVFR SHOWERS AS
LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT HAS BEEN
SPORADICALLY MISSING FROM THE AWOS (AUTOMATED WEATHER OBSERVING
SYSTEM) AT RUTLAND (KRUT) SOUTHERN VERMONT REGIONAL AIRPORT. THE
FAA AOCC HAS BEEN NOTIFIED OF THIS PROBLEM AND HAVE OPENED A
TROUBLE TICKET. THE FAA HAS MAINTENANCE RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE
AWOS AT RUTLAND VERMONT. NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME AS
TO WHEN THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL AGAIN CONSISTENTLY BE
REPORTED IN THE KRUT OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...DEAL
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
340 AM EDT THU APR 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER AND JUST OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY... THEN SHIFT OVERHEAD
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LOW AND DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT... AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM THURSDAY...
OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS WILL BE DRIVEN BY TWO PRIMARY
FEATURES... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING SRN AL/GA THIS MORNING THEN
MOVING OFFSHORE BY AFTERNOON... AND A POTENT MID LEVEL LOW OVER
LOWER MI THIS MORNING THAT WILL CROSS NC LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRI.
BOTH OF THESE WILL BE OPERATING ON A SOMEWHAT MOIST COLUMN WITH
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PW AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT... LEADING TO
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR CENTRAL NC.
FOR THIS MORNING... AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE PERSIST OVER AND
EAST OF THE TRIANGLE... A FUNCTION OF ENHANCED ATLANTIC EASTERLY
INFLOW AND MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AROUND 295K NEAR AND NE OF THE
850 MB LOW OVER SE NC. THIS LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY NE OVER ERN NC
TODAY... AS THE ABOVE-NORMAL PW SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST TO COASTAL
SECTIONS... AND ACCORDINGLY THE MOIST UPGLIDE WILL TRANSLATE NE INTO
ERN VA LATER TODAY. WE`LL RETAIN A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EAST
FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING... GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA BY
THE NOON HOUR. MEANWHILE... THE WRN CWA WILL SEE A BRIEF LULL IN
PRECIP CHANCES THIS MORNING... BENEATH LOWER PW... DOWNSLOPE 850 MB
FLOW... AND NEUTRAL VERTICAL MOTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE ALOFT.
THE LATEST HRRR RUNS SUPPORT PATCHES OF FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK IN THE
SW CWA... WHERE SKIES FIRST CLEARED OUT EARLIER THIS MORNING.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON... THE RELATIVE MINIMUM IN RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST
OF CENTRAL NC WILL BE SHORT LIVED... AS THE MI LOW DROPS SSE TOWARD
THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS... WITH WEAK BUT PERSISTENT
MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS STRETCHING ACROSS NC. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF 6.5-7.0 C/KM SPREAD INTO WRN/CENTRAL NC FROM THE NW DURING THE
DAY... PUSHING MUCAPE VALUES UP TO 250-750 J/KG... WITH ADDED
FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM MID LEVEL DPVA AND PERSISTENT UPPER
DIVERGENCE. THE HI-RES WRF ARW/NMM AS WELL AS RECENT HRRR RUNS SHOW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN PIEDMONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON (RIGHT
ON THE HEELS OF THE RAIN THAT WILL BE PUSHING OUT OF THE FAR NE CWA
BY THIS TIME)... AND THE FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THESE TRENDS WITH POPS
RAMPING UP TO GOOD CHANCE AND LOW-END LIKELY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON... STARTING FIRST OVER THE NW CWA AND SPREADING
ESE. DON`T EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER... BUT GIVEN THESE STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND INVERTED-V SIGNALS ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS LATE TODAY...
LOCALLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS AND A LITTLE SMALL HAIL ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S NE WHERE SKIES WILL STAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY... TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE SW CWA WHERE SUNSHINE WILL
BE MOST ABUNDANT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT: THE MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIVE
FROM ERN KY ESE THROUGH WRN NC TONIGHT... AND THE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS OVER THE PIEDMONT AND INTO
THE SANDHILLS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL ACCORDINGLY SPREAD EAST.
COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE A BIT WITH THE NOCTURNAL COOLING TRIMMING
INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT... BUT THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN
AROUND 6.5 OVER THE NRN CWA OVERNIGHT... WITH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL
MASS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SHARPENING LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ACROSS
NC... ALONG WITH PERSISTENT UPPER DIVERGENCE. PW WILL STAY ELEVATED
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP CHANCE
POPS OVERNIGHT INTO FRI... HIGHEST OVER THE NRN AND ERN CWA. LOWS 48-
53. SHOWERS SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE AND EXIT TO THE EAST AS THE LOW
TO MID LEVEL LOW DEPARTS TO OUR EAST DURING FRI. WILL KEEP CHANCE
POPS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON... THEN
DECREASE CHANCES FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD. WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS
FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND MODEL THICKNESSES RUNNING 20 M OR SO BELOW
NORMAL... EXPECT COOL HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 60S NE TO UPPER 60S SW.
WE SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES FRI NIGHT AS THE COLUMN DRIES OUT
WITHIN POST-LOW SUBSIDENCE. LOWS AROUND 45-50. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...
CERTAINLY A DRYING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT SO ANY COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SIDE OF
THE HIGH WILL BE LIMITED AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DAYTIME HEATING TO BRING MAX TEMPERATURE UP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...MODELS ARE TRYING TO PICK UP A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM A LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC. THE BEST VORTICITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS BETWEEN 900-800 MB AND THE MODEL
PRODUCES SOME BROKEN CEILINGS WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. QPF IS VERY MINIMAL AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW
THAT THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING OR MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ANY RAIN.
MORE LIKELY WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS BUT SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
APPROACHING HIGH WILL LIKELY OVERCOME MOST OF WHAT THE SURFACE
TROUGH HAS TO OFFER. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHEAST BUT OTHERWISE DRY. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.
SUNDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE AREA AND OFF TO THE
EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTION COULD BRING
SOME BROKEN CUMULUS TO THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON BUT MOISTURE IS
LIMITED AND OTHER THAN A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS.
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE AREA (ALTHOUGH VERY LIGHT)
EXPECT HIGHS TO MOVE UP INTO THE UPPER 70S. LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK
AND A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 DEGREES. A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC MAY THREATEN NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH A FEW
CLOUDS BUT OTHERWISE NOT MUCH IMPACT TO WEATHER. THE GFS HINTS AT
THIS FEATURE TRYING TO PUSH DOWN INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE FEATURE OVER THE DC AREA. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ENOUGH IN THE PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
AND PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME IN
THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 115 AM THURSDAY...
EASTERN TAFS INCLUDING RDU/RWI/FAY SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST
THROUGH 18Z THIS AFTERNOON... WITH ANY CIGS HOLDING ABOVE 4000 FT
AGL... HOWEVER PERIODS OF PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AT THESE SITES THIS
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE BRIEF BORDERLINE MVFR
VSBYS (5SM-6SM). AT INT/GSO... A PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR FOG IS EXPECTED
EARLY THIS MORNING (MAINLY 06Z-12Z)... ALTHOUGH OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE FROM MID MORNING THROUGH 18Z WITH A LOWER
CHANCE OF RAIN AS COMPARED TO EASTERN SITES. AFTER 18Z... AN
APPROACHING STRONG UPPER LOW FROM THE NW WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS... FIRST AT INT/GSO/RDU/RWI THEN AT FAY
AFTER 21Z. SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL INITIALLY BE BRIEF WITH THESE
SHOWERS BEFORE 00Z. AFTER 00Z... IFR FOG/STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO FORM
AT RDU/RWI/FAY... WHILE VFR CIGS SHOULD HOLD AT INT/GSO THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD (06Z FRI). WINDS WILL BE LIGHT (UNDER 8
KTS) AND VARIABLE EXCEPT 15Z-21Z WHEN WINDS WILL BE AROUND 8 KTS AND
MAINLY FROM THE NW AT INT/GSO/FAY AND MAINLY FROM THE NORTH AT
RDU/RWI.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY FRI MORNING: GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS (MAINLY IFR) AS WE APPROACH DAYBREAK FRI... AS A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS OVER THE AREA. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY RISE TO MVFR BY 16Z-18Z AND TO VFR BY 21Z FRI AS THE
DISTURBANCE EXITS. VFR CONDITIONS THEN LIKELY FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1227 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. UPDATED NEAR TERM
FORECAST TO MATCH OBSERVATION TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015
GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL RATES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...AND SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION...ADDED AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION
ACROSS THE WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO EXPAND THE
ISOLATED SHOWER MENTION ACROSS THE WEST LATE TONIGHT GIVEN TRENDS
IN THE 19-21 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS WHICH PROPAGATE SHOWERS ALONG
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MONTANA BORDER AROUND 10 UTC.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015
CURRENTLY...SUNNY SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES INTO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S STATEWIDE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE
LEE OF THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
TONIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...BUT SHOULD SEE INCREASING
CLOUDS WEST TOWARD MORNING AS THE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES
INTO MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS INCREASING MID
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE WEST. A SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES IS SITUATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
INCREASING 850MB WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH THERMAL RIDGING
MOVING INTO THE AREA SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS MILD WITH READINGS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S.
THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN MONTANA
AROUND MIDDAY AND INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY EARLY EVENING. THIS
WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT TO NEAR THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR BY
MIDDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BUMP TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S. THE DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD ALLOW DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE
LOW TO MID 30S SOUTH CENTRAL...AND INTO THE LOWER 30S OVER THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. AS WE MIX OUT IN THE AFTERNOON...WE SEE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
30 MPH OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...TAPERING SLIGHTLY AS YOU GO
WEST TO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THIS PRODUCE AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY...TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. WILL BE
ISSUING A RED FLAG WARNING DUE TO THE LOW HUMIDITIES AND STRONG
WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN COOLER
AIR...RAISING HUMIDITIES AND BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED BUT DID MENTION AN ISOLATE THUNDERSTORM
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...LOCATED OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...CONTINUES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL PERSIST IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS
OF THE STATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER...THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS PROVIDE
AGREEMENT ON ZONAL FLOW BECOMING DOMINANT THE THROUGH PERIOD.
SEVERAL EMBEDDED UNPREDICTABLE SHORTWAVES ARE PROJECTED WITHIN THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW...CREATING FREQUENT CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY CONFINED TO
SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE STATE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING NEAR 30 KTS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ023-025-036-037-046>048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
318 AM EDT THU APR 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DRIFT SLOWLY FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST AND OVER BERMUDA. THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD
WARM AND WEATHER STAY FAIR SATURDAY INTO THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO SEVERAL WEATHER ELEMENTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. LATEST HRRR AND WRF ARW MODELS SUGGEST THAT MOST /OR ALL/
OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN PARTS OF THE
CWA. SHOWERS WILL BE SLOWLY DEVELOPING AND DRIFTING NORTH ACROSS
THE WRN MTNS...AS A RESULT OF A LLVL INVERTED TROUGH /NEAR THE
PA/OH BORDER AT 0230Z/ DRIFTING A BIT MORE TO THE EAST...AND BEING
OVERRUN BY THE LEADING EDGE OF SOME MID LAYER COOLING AND
INCREASED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.
QPF THROUGH 12Z IS LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH WHERE IT DOES
RAIN ACROSS THE WRN MTNS. ELSEWHERE...ZEROES IN THE RAINFALL DEPT
WILL CONTINUE TO SUFFICE.
EARLY EVENING DISCUSSION...
MAINLY SCATTERED...FLAT HIGH-BASED CU ARE MELTING AWAY WITH THE
SETTING SUN IN MANY LOCATIONS. A BKN LAYER OF CLOUDS AT THIS
SAME LEVEL COVERING PORTIONS OF THE NW MTNS SHOULD SLOWLY EXPAND
SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT AS PWATS INCREASE BY ABOUT
0.25 OF AN INCH AND LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/LIFT
INCREASES AHEAD OF A WEAK CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB. SKY COVER MAY BE
SKEWED MORE TWD SKC THAN BKN OVER THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS ACRS MUCH OF
CENTRAL PENN.
WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART AND VEER BY ABOUT 40-50
DEG THROUGH THE NIGHT /FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST/.
A WEAK NERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WILL COMBINE WITH THE
INCREASING DYNAMIC LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW...TO
EXPAND THE CLOUD COVER IN THE 7-10 KFT AGL LAYER...AND TRIGGER
SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAURELS LATER THIS EVENING. THE SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
MIN TEMPS EARLY THURSDAY WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER
40S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS OVER THE LAURELS/WRN MTS WILL SPREAD OUT A BIT...ADVANCING
TO THE EAST AND NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE UPPER HEIGHTS GET
LOWEST OVERHEAD IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. BUT THE COLDEST OF THE
AIR WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH. THE INSTABILITY AND SLOW MOVING NATURE
OF THESE SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAIN. QPF GETS CLOSE TO
AN INCH BY THE END OF THE DAY OVER THE SW...WITH A HALF AN INCH OR
SO UP TO STATE COLLEGE AND HARRISBURG. CAPES REMAIN BELOW 500 IN
GENERAL AND LI/S SCRAPE -1...SO A MENTION OF THUNDER IS WARRANTED
BUT ALSO NOT ENTIRELY NECESSARY. MAXES SHOULD BE BACK NEAR 70 OR
EVEN L70S IN THE EAST WHERE A P/S SKY IN THE MORNING SHOULD HELP
TEMPS RISE. THE CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP EVERYONE ELSE IN THE U50S TO
M60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LINGERING COLD TEMPS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES DIVING
INTO BASE OF UPPER TROUGH OVR PA...SHOULD PROMOTE SCT DIURNAL
SHOWERS FRI AND SAT. PLENTY OF CU/SC EXPECTED BENEATH UPPER TROF
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE U50S/L60S FRIDAY...THEN BRIGHTER/MILDER WX
LIKELY SAT...AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE OVR THE NORTHEAST CONUS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A WARMING TREND SUN-TUE...AS ALL MED RANGE
GUIDANCE SHOWS A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS. AS
SFC HIGH PUSHES OFF THE E COAST...RETURN SW FLOW WILL ADVECT
INCREASINGLY WARM AIR INTO PA. GEFS AND ECENS MEAN 8H TEMPS RISE
TO BTWN 10-12C BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...IMPLYING WIDESPREAD 70S FOR
HIGHS AND SOME 80S IN THE S VALLEYS. ECENS TRACKS A WEAK NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL
INTRODUCE AN INCREASING CHC OF SHRA/TSRA LATE MON/TUE...AS ASSOC
DYING COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD FROM NY STATE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
TO WEST VIRGINIA BY THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS
TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE TODAY. HOWEVER...SIG CIG/VIS
REDUCTIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. BIGGEST THREAT TO AVIATION DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HRS WILL COME BTWN 18Z-00Z...WHEN A FEW TSRA COULD
DEVELOP OVR THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE...GENERALLY WEST OF KMDT
AND KIPT. A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION IS POSSIBLE FROM THESE STORMS.
HOWEVER...WILL NOT CARRY EXPLICIT MENTION OF TSRA IN FCST
ATTM...AS ANY REDUCTIONS WOULD BE BRIEF AND IMPOSSIBLE TO TIME
THIS FAR OUT.
SHRA/TSRA SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER DARK...AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSES SOUTH OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...MOIST EASTERLY FLOW ASCENDING
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IFR CIGS AT KJST
AFTER 23Z.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...AM LOW CIGS POSSIBLE KJST/KAOO.
SAT-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1209 AM EDT THU APR 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DRIFT SLOWLY FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST AND OVER BERMUDA. THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD
WARM AND WEATHER STAY FAIR SATURDAY INTO THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO SEVERAL WEATHER ELEMENTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. LATEST HRRR AND WRF ARW MODELS SUGGEST THAT MOST /OR ALL/
OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN PARTS OF THE
CWA. SHOWERS WILL BE SLOWLY DEVELOPING AND DRIFTING NORTH ACROSS
THE WRN MTNS...AS A RESULT OF A LLVL INVERTED TROUGH /NEAR THE
PA/OH BORDER AT 0230Z/ DRIFTING A BIT MORE TO THE EAST...AND BEING
OVERRUN BY THE LEADING EDGE OF SOME MID LAYER COOLING AND
INCREASED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.
QPF THROUGH 12Z IS LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH WHERE IT DOES
RAIN ACROSS THE WRN MTNS. ELSEWHERE...ZEROES IN THE RAINFALL DEPT
WILL CONTINUE TO SUFFICE.
EARLY EVENING DISCUSSION...
MAINLY SCATTERED...FLAT HIGH-BASED CU ARE MELTING AWAY WITH THE
SETTING SUN IN MANY LOCATIONS. A BKN LAYER OF CLOUDS AT THIS
SAME LEVEL COVERING PORTIONS OF THE NW MTNS SHOULD SLOWLY EXPAND
SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT AS PWATS INCREASE BY ABOUT
0.25 OF AN INCH AND LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/LIFT
INCREASES AHEAD OF A WEAK CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB. SKY COVER MAY BE
SKEWED MORE TWD SKC THAN BKN OVER THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS ACRS MUCH OF
CENTRAL PENN.
WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART AND VEER BY ABOUT 40-50
DEG THROUGH THE NIGHT /FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST/.
A WEAK NERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WILL COMBINE WITH THE
INCREASING DYNAMIC LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW...TO
EXPAND THE CLOUD COVER IN THE 7-10 KFT AGL LAYER...AND TRIGGER
SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAURELS LATER THIS EVENING. THE SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
MIN TEMPS EARLY THURSDAY WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER
40S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS OVER THE LAURELS/WRN MTS WILL SPREAD OUT A BIT...ADVANCING
TO THE EAST AND NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE UPPER HEIGHTS GET
LOWEST OVERHEAD IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. BUT THE COLDEST OF THE
AIR WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH. THE INSTABILITY AND SLOW MOVING NATURE
OF THESE SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAIN. QPF GETS CLOSE TO
AN INCH BY THE END OF THE DAY OVER THE SW...WITH A HALF AN INCH OR
SO UP TO STATE COLLEGE AND HARRISBURG. CAPES REMAIN BELOW 500 IN
GENERAL AND LI/S SCRAPE -1...SO A MENTION OF THUNDER IS WARRANTED
BUT ALSO NOT ENTIRELY NECESSARY. MAXES SHOULD BE BACK NEAR 70 OR
EVEN L70S IN THE EAST WHERE A P/S SKY IN THE MORNING SHOULD HELP
TEMPS RISE. THE CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP EVERYONE ELSE IN THE U50S TO
M60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LINGERING COLD TEMPS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES DIVING
INTO BASE OF UPPER TROUGH OVR PA...SHOULD PROMOTE SCT DIURNAL
SHOWERS FRI AND SAT. PLENTY OF CU/SC EXPECTED BENEATH UPPER TROF
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE U50S/L60S FRIDAY...THEN BRIGHTER/MILDER WX
LIKELY SAT...AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE OVR THE NORTHEAST CONUS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A WARMING TREND SUN-TUE...AS ALL MED RANGE
GUIDANCE SHOWS A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS. AS
SFC HIGH PUSHES OFF THE E COAST...RETURN SW FLOW WILL ADVECT
INCREASINGLY WARM AIR INTO PA. GEFS AND ECENS MEAN 8H TEMPS RISE
TO BTWN 10-12C BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...IMPLYING WIDESPREAD 70S FOR
HIGHS AND SOME 80S IN THE S VALLEYS. ECENS TRACKS A WEAK NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL
INTRODUCE AN INCREASING CHC OF SHRA/TSRA LATE MON/TUE...AS ASSOC
DYING COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD FROM NY STATE.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS DELAY THE RAIN AS IT CORRESPONDS TO THE
DRY LOW LEVELS. THE LOW LEVELS WILL SLOWLY MOISTENS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS SOUTH THROUGH
MICHIGAN AND DOWN THROUGH THE SOUTH...THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH AND COUPLED WITH MOISTENING LLVL FLOW WILL COMBINE TO
CREATE SOME INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EXPAND IN THE
HEATING OF THE DAY TOMORROW. VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
EVENING...SLOWLY DECREASING IN CIGS AND VSBYS BEGINNING AT JST AND
CREEPING TO THE NORTH AND THEN EASTWARD WITH MVFR CONDITIONS THE
MAIN CONCERN IN RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWERING CIGS. AS THE SHRA
SPREADS TO THE N/E THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING AND
KBFD AND KAOO MAY HAVE SHOWERS BEFORE SUNRISE. SOME POSSIBLE OF
THUNDER EXISTS AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY IN THE SRN TERMINALS.
IPT WILL REMAIN ABOVE MVFR BEFORE LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WHEN
THE SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION. MDT AND LNS WILL REMAIN
VFR BEFORE MVFR CIGS IN SHOWERS ARRIVE LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...LOW VFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
SAT-MON...VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
OVER THE MTNS
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...DANGELO/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
337 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015
.DISCUSSION...
IR IMAGERY SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS FEATURE WILL BE MIDDLE TN`S NEXT WEATHER MAKER
AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD TODAY. MODELS AND THE HRRR DATA ARE ALL IN
LINE WITH SPREADING SHOWER ACTIVITY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
AREA...BEGINNING JUST BEFORE NOON FAR NORTH...AND THEN SPREADING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID STATE THEREAFTER. THE ACTUAL POSITION OF
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER EASTERN KY AT 00Z THIS EVENING. MOISTURE
WILL EXTEND WELL TO THE WEST OF THE TRACK. THUS...POPS WILL INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST WITH 50 POPS OVER OUR PLATEAU. AS FOR ANY THUNDER
CHANCES...COOLER AIR IS NOTED ALOFT...BUT THE BETTER SHOWALTER AND
MID LEVEL THETA-E PARAMETERS WILL BE LOCATED TO OUR EAST.
A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
PLATEAU...THEN PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL THEN BUILD IN WITH 1 LAST NIGHT WITH
LOW TEMPS IN THE 40S FOR FRI NT. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN COMMENCE
WITH HEIGHTS ON THE INCREASE ON INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. STILL NO
ORGANIZED FRONTAL PASSAGES ARE INDICATED...JUST WARM AND DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRI
NT. THEN...WITH THE WARMING TREND...HIGH TEMPS WILL REACHING INTO
THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 80S BY THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 70 43 71 49 / 30 10 0 05
CLARKSVILLE 69 41 69 48 / 20 05 0 05
CROSSVILLE 65 39 64 44 / 50 20 10 10
COLUMBIA 72 44 71 49 / 20 10 0 05
LAWRENCEBURG 72 45 70 48 / 20 10 05 05
WAVERLY 70 42 69 48 / 20 05 0 05
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1152 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015/
UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING OFF A LITTLE QUICKER THAN FORECAST THIS
EVENING WITH LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKIES. HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT
LOWS A LITTLE IN MANY LOCATIONS. UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN
SENT.
JCL
&&
.UPDATE... /ISSUED 720 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015/
AT EARLY EVENING...A FEW SHOWERS WERE PUSHING THROUGH PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL AR AND NORTHWEST MS AS THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD. THE SHOWERS ARE
QUICKLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND EXPECT THEM TO SOON DISSIPATE.
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO SOON CLEAR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. UPDATED THE ZONE FORECAST AND GRIDS TO
REMOVE REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON WORDING. ALSO MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO
THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES AND WINDS.
UPDATE... /ISSUED 511 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015/
ALSO INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MENTION OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST AR. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DETECTED
WITH WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY.
UPDATE... /ISSUED 456 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015/
SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ARE
MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NORTHEAST AR. LIGHT RAIN WAS
REPORTED AT CORNING AR WHILE WALNUT RIDGE AR REPORTED A WIND GUST
TO NEAR 40 MPH WITH ONE OF THE SHOWERS. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS
THESE SHOWERS CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
NORTHEAST AR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WHILE THE HRRR DOES MOVE
THEM INTO MEMPHIS...THE RAP DISSIPATES THE SHOWERS WITH SUNSET
BEFORE THEY REACH MEMPHIS. WILL MONITOR THIS...BUT FOR NOW ONLY
INCLUDED THE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST AR.
JCL
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015/
CURRENTLY AS OF 3PM... TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 70S THROUGHOUT THE
MIDSOUTH FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE SATURDAY BUT STILL ARE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW LATE APRIL NORMALS. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
THROUGHOUT THE CWA BUT THAT WILL SOON CHANGE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE REVOLVING AROUND A CLOSED LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION INCREASING CLOUDINESS MAINLY IN
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE MIDSOUTH. KNQA RADAR IS
ALREADY DEPICTING LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTHEASTERN
CWA... HOWEVER IT IS LIKELY THAT THIS PRECIPITATION IS NOT
REACHING THE GROUND DUE TO REALLY DRY SURFACE AIR IN PLACE.
SHORT TERM...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION OVER NIGHT. MODELS AGREE ON VERY LITTLE QPF
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AND THE MAJORITY OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL STAY DRY.
HOWEVER.. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR DEPICTS SOME VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTH
WEST MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING.
ON A BROADER SCALE... AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WHILE UPPER RIDGING TAKES PLACE NEAR THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREATS LAKES
WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION JUST EAST OF
THE MIDSOUTH ON THURSDAY. THE ONLY EFFECT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON
OUR CWA IS SLIGHTLY RAISED POPS FOR THE COUNTIES IN WEST
TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER... HOWEVER MOST OF THE PRECIP
WILL STAY FAR EAST OF OUR CWA. ABNORMALLY DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
A BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE MIDSOUTH
THURSDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
PARKED OVER THE MIDSOUTH.
LONG TERM...
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY THE WEEKEND
AND ABOVE AVERAGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS
EAST AND FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. MODELS AGREE ON A MORE DYNAMIC WEATHER
PATTERN SETTING UP BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP TROF APPROACHES THE
REGION.
JPM3
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR WITH PATCHY MIDLEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT.
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST BEFORE
NOON. POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL VEER NORTH AND WEAKEN NEAR SUNSET.
JAB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
338 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015
.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN OVER WISCONSIN TODAY INTO TONIGHT
AS MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW NEAR THE LOWER MICHIGAN/INDIANA BORDER
AT 12Z DROPS SE THROUGH THE DAY.
AREA REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE THE DAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY BRINGING SOME BROKEN CUMULUS DOWN THE LAKE AND
EASTERN WISCONSIN WITH INSTABILITY AS 850-925 MB COLD POOLS ROTATE
OVER THE STATE THIS MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. HRRR ALONE AMONG THE HI-RES/RAPID UPDATED MODELS IN SHOWING
SPOTTY LIGHT QPF OVER THE EAST BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z. HAVE PUT
ISOLATED SPRINKLES OVER THE EAST THIS MORNING.
EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST...WITH MIXING UP
TO 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS WITH WINDS EASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE EAST COOL...WITH HIGHS
AROUND 50 ALONG THE LAKE AND NEAR 60 INLAND...WHILE A BIT MORE SUN
WILL ALLOW HIGHS IN THE MID 60S IN THE WEST.
.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH
HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY SETTLES OVER THE STATE WITH AMPLIFIED BUT
NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE PUSHING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. MADE A
DOWNWARD TWEAK TO CONSENSUS LOWS WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS.
.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
FROM OVERHEAD FRIDAY MORNING TO SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY AS THE HIGH DEPARTS...BUT NOT SEEING ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
ORGANIZED LIFT TO CONSIDER POPS MOST AREAS.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A
LAKE BREEZE IS LIKELY FRIDAY...SO EXPECT COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE
LAKE. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH SATURDAY TO PUSH THE
MILDER TEMPS ALL THE WAY TO THE LAKE. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE NORTH
OF MILWAUKEE...WHERE THE WINDS MAY BE MORE SOUTHERLY AND BRING IN
SOME COOLER LAKE AIR ALONG SHORE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD SHEBOYGAN.
.SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MODELS ARE STILL POINTING TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER
BEGINNING ON SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING WARM AND
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO KICK
OFF SHOWERS AND STORMS. COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER
STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA WHERE THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A BETTER COMBINATION
OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY.
MORE SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT IS
PROGGED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE FOR TUESDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. MODELS THEN BRING
THE FRONT BACK NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN MORE STORM
CHANCES.
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
HIGHS COOLING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL VALUES TUESDAY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL THEN LIKELY WARM BACK UP WEDNESDAY IF THE
FRONT DOES INDEED LIFT NORTHWARD INTO/THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
EXPECT CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING TO REMAIN AT VFR
LEVELS...THOUGH SOME INDICATION OF A SHORT PERIOD OF A BROKEN MVFR
CLOUD DECK THAT WOULD AFFECT THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES MID-LATE
MORNING. COULD ALSO SEE A FEW SPRINKLES AS WELL BUT VERY ISOLATED
AND TOO FEW TO MENTION IN THE EASTERN TAFS. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY AS WELL WITH MIXING UP TO 20-30 KNOT WINDS BRINGING
SOME NEAR 20 KNOT GUSTS TO THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL EASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.
&&
.MARINE...ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN-MOST MARINE
ZONES AS NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN RISING TO 22-25 KNOTS WITH
TIGHTER GRADIENT THAN EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. WILL CARRY IT UNTIL 7 PM...BUT WILL PROBABLY NOT NEED TO
GO THAT LONG AS WINDS EASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BOATERS IN THE
REST OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS WINDS WILL
GUST TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH THE MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE DRY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES SOMEWHAT ON THE LOW SIDE TODAY AND FRIDAY...IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE...BEFORE RISING ABOVE 40 PERCENT FOR THE WEEKEND AND
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS...ESPECIALLY
THIS MORNING...WITH THE WINDS SLOWLY EASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ646.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DDV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
930 AM EDT THU APR 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY TODAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND
PARTIAL SUNSHINE. SEVERAL NEARBY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
ALLOW FOR MORE CLOUDS ON FRIDAY...WITH A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A
RAIN SHOWER...WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO BE NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS. EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM EDT...WEAK RIDGING IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER OUR
REGION. A CLOSED OFF SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DIVING OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF LOW REMAINS WELL TO OUR EAST
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY CONDITIONS
AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S PREVAILED ACROSS THE
REGION. MOST OF THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY
THIS MORNING.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES LOOKS TO DIVE TOWARDS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. IT SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH
SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA TO AVOID HAVING A DIRECT IMPACT...BUT MAY
SEND SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO OUR AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...BROAD N-NE FLOW AROUND THE OCEANIC CLOSED
LOW WILL ALLOW SOME LOWER MOISTURE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO OUR
REGION AS WELL. THIS MOISTURE...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME DIURNAL CU/STRAOTCU CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN. A
STRAY SHOWER OR SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
LATE TODAY...BUT WIDESPREAD PRECIP ISN/T EXPECTED DUE TO ONLY VERY
WEAK BROAD SCALE LIFT IN PLACE. THE 12Z 3KM HRRR SHOWS JUST SOME
VERY ISOLATED SPRINKLES/SHOWERS TRYING TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN FOR
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS SUCH AS THE TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES...BUT WE
WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THESE ACTUALLY DEVELOP INTO ANYTHING
MEASURABLE.
HIGHS TODAY WON/T BE AS WARM AS YESTERDAY SINCE MIXING WON/T BE
QUITE AS DEEP. STILL...IT LOOKS SEASONABLE WITH MID 60S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL HELP A SFC LOW
DEVELOP ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTLINE TONIGHT...WHICH WILL THEN
HEAD NORTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA...AND WON/T BE ABLE TO BRING WIDESPREAD
PRECIP INTO OUR AREA. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A
BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER DUE TO WEAK TROUGH OVERHEAD BETWEEN TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY...ESP FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. ANY SHOWER WOULD BE
RATHER LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION. BY SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS START TO RISE...AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY.
CLOUD COVER WILL PROBABLY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
DUE TO THE TROUGH OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY FOR SATURDAY.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS ON
FRIDAY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...AND WILL PROBABLY REACH
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR SATURDAY DUE TO MORE EXPECTED SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT. LOWS TONIGHT...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 40S...ALTHOUGH SOME 30S ARE POSSIBLE IN HIGH
TERRAIN AND OUTLYING AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THERE IS A DECENT CONSENSUS FROM GUIDANCE THAT THE LAST BIT OF THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER ENERGY TO OUR EAST WILL EXIT SUNDAY...
WITH THE LAST OF ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE REGION WILL SEE INCREASING INFLUENCE OF FLAT UPPER
RIDGING FROM THE WEST AND LOW LEVEL WARMING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY IN CANADA WILL HELP UPPER HEIGHTS TO FALL AS
THE UPPER RIDGING GETS SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A RESULT
OF THE LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER OUR REGION. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
OF A LITTLE BIT OF LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY AND SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
THAT COULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE EXIT OF THE FRONT...A DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 70S...WITH 60S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HIGHS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...NEAR 70 HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. COULD FLIRT WITH 80 BY TUESDAY IN SOME PLACES DEPENDING
ON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S...60S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HRS ENDING 12Z/01 AT
KPOU/KPSF/KALB/KGFL...AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES CONTINUES TO BRING SOME CLOUDS FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE
REGION. A FEW INSTABILITY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
AROUND KGFL...KALB AND KPSF THIS EVENING.
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 3500 FEET WILL MOVE FROM WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MORE
SCATTERED CLOUDS THIS MORNING...AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED IN THE
KALB...KGFL AND KPSF TAFS THIS EVENING...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST AND OF A SHOWERS WERE TO OCCUR...IT
WOULD BE QUITE LIGHT...PROBABLY REMAINING VFR. THE CEILING AT KPSF
COULD LOWER TO 2500 FEET AFTER 09Z.
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 3 KT OR LESS
THROUGH MID MORNING. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NE TO SE AT LESS
THAN 10 KT IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN AT LESS
THAN 6 KT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC -SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY. ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY TO START...SOME CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. IT WILL PROBABLY NOT MIX QUITE AS DEEP AS
YESTERDAY...SO DAYTIME TEMPS WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH MID 60S FOR
VALLEY AREAS. RH VALUES LOOK TO FALL 30 TO 40 PERCENT FOR
VALLEYS...AS 35 TO 45 PERCENT ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. WITH WINDS
FAIRLY LIGHT ALOFT...E-NE TODAY WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 5-10 MPH.
RH WILL RECOVER TONIGHT 80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION AND CALM WINDS. THERE IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER
AS WELL.
RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH CONTINUED SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. THERE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER...BUT MOST AREAS
LOOK TO STAY COMPLETELY DRY...WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.
WINDS BOTH DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY 5 MPH OR LESS FROM A
N-NE DIRECTION ON FRIDAY...AND A N-NW DIRECTION ON SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING
CLOSE TO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...NONE WILL BE DIRECTLY
IMPACTING THE AREA. ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY /MAINLY OVER HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS/...MOST AREAS LOOK TO STAY DRY AND ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION. MAINLY DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO
OCCUR THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT RETURNS THE
CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY.
NOHRSC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT ANY SNOWPACK THAT WOULD BE OF
HYDROLOGIC SIGNIFICANCE HAS MELTED OUT OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREENS...SO THE THREAT FOR SPRING FLOODING DUE TO SNOW/ICE HAS
ENDED.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB
SITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
927 AM EDT THU APR 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY TODAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND
PARTIAL SUNSHINE. SEVERAL NEARBY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
ALLOW FOR MORE CLOUDS ON FRIDAY...WITH A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A
RAIN SHOWER...WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO BE NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS. EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM EDT...WEAK RIDGING IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER OUR
REGION. A CLOSED OFF SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DIVING OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF LOW REMAINS WELL TO OUR EAST
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY CONDITIONS
AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S PREVAILED ACROSS THE
REGION. MOST OF THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY
THIS MORNING.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES LOOKS TO DIVE TOWARDS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. IT SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH
SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA TO AVOID HAVING A DIRECT IMPACT...BUT MAY
SEND SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO OUR AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...BROAD N-NE FLOW AROUND THE OCEANIC CLOSED
LOW WILL ALLOW SOME LOWER MOISTURE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO OUR
REGION AS WELL. THIS MOISTURE...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME DIURNAL CU/STRAOTCU CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN. A
STRAY SHOWER OR SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
LATE TODAY...BUT WIDESPREAD PRECIP ISN/T EXPECTED DUE TO ONLY VERY
WEAK BROAD SCALE LIFT IN PLACE. THE 12Z 3KM HRRR SHOWS JUST SOME
VERY ISOLATED SPRINKLES/SHOWERS TRYING TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN FOR
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS SUCH AS THE TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES...BUT WE
WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THESE ACTUALLY DEVELOP INTO ANYTHING
MEASURABLE.
HIGHS TODAY WON/T BE AS WARM AS YESTERDAY SINCE MIXING WON/T BE
QUITE AS DEEP. STILL...IT LOOKS SEASONABLE WITH MID 60S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL HELP A SFC LOW
DEVELOP ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTLINE TONIGHT...WHICH WILL THEN
HEAD NORTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA...AND WON/T BE ABLE TO BRING WIDESPREAD
PRECIP INTO OUR AREA. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A
BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER DUE TO WEAK TROUGH OVERHEAD BETWEEN TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY...ESP FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. ANY SHOWER WOULD BE
RATHER LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION. BY SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS START TO RISE...AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY.
CLOUD COVER WILL PROBABLY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
DUE TO THE TROUGH OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY FOR SATURDAY.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS ON
FRIDAY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...AND WILL PROBABLY REACH
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR SATURDAY DUE TO MORE EXPECTED SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT. LOWS TONIGHT...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 40S...ALTHOUGH SOME 30S ARE POSSIBLE IN HIGH
TERRAIN AND OUTLYING AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THERE IS A DECENT CONSENSUS FROM GUIDANCE THAT THE LAST BIT OF THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER ENERGY TO OUR EAST WILL EXIT SUNDAY...
WITH THE LAST OF ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE REGION WILL SEE INCREASING INFLUENCE OF FLAT UPPER
RIDGING FROM THE WEST AND LOW LEVEL WARMING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY IN CANADA WILL HELP UPPER HEIGHTS TO FALL AS
THE UPPER RIDGING GETS SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A RESULT
OF THE LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER OUR REGION. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
OF A LITTLE BIT OF LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY AND SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
THAT COULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE EXIT OF THE FRONT...A DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 70S...WITH 60S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HIGHS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...NEAR 70 HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. COULD FLIRT WITH 80 BY TUESDAY IN SOME PLACES DEPENDING
ON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S...60S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HRS ENDING 12Z/01 AT
KPOU/KPSF/KALB/KGFL...AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES CONTINUES TO BRING SOME CLOUDS FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE
REGION. A FEW INSTABILITY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
AROUND KGFL...KALB AND KPSF THIS EVENING.
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 3500 FEET WILL MOVE FROM WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MORE
SCATTERED CLOUDS THIS MORNING...AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED IN THE
KALB...KGFL AND KPSF TAFS THIS EVENING...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST AND OF A SHOWERS WERE TO OCCUR...IT
WOULD BE QUITE LIGHT...PROBABLY REMAINING VFR. THE CEILING AT KPSF
COULD LOWER TO 2500 FEET AFTER 09Z.
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 3 KT OR LESS
THROUGH MID MORNING. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NE TO SE AT LESS
THAN 10 KT IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN AT LESS
THAN 6 KT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC -SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY. ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY TO START...SOME CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. IT WILL PROBABLY NOT MIX QUITE AS DEEP AS
YESTERDAY...SO DAYTIME TEMPS WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH MID 60S FOR
VALLEY AREAS. RH VALUES LOOK TO FALL 30 TO 40 PERCENT FOR
VALLEYS...AS 35 TO 45 PERCENT ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. WITH WINDS
FAIRLY LIGHT ALOFT...E-NE TODAY WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 5-10 MPH.
RH WILL RECOVER TONIGHT 80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION AND CALM WINDS. THERE IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER
AS WELL.
RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH CONTINUED SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. THERE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER...BUT MOST AREAS
LOOK TO STAY COMPLETELY DRY...WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.
WINDS BOTH DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY 5 MPH OR LESS FROM A
N-NE DIRECTION ON FRIDAY...AND A N-NW DIRECTION ON SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING
CLOSE TO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...NONE WILL BE DIRECTLY
IMPACTING THE AREA. ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY /MAINLY OVER HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS/...MOST AREAS LOOK TO STAY DRY AND ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION. MAINLY DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO
OCCUR THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT RETURNS THE
CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY.
NOHRSC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT ANY SNOWPACK THAT WOULD BE OF
HYDROLOGIC SIGNIFICANCE HAS MELTED OUT OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREENS...SO THE THREAT FOR SPRING FLOODING DUE TO SNOW/ICE HAS
ENDED.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB
SITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
702 AM EDT THU APR 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY TODAY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE. SEVERAL NEARBY UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL ALLOW FOR MORE CLOUDS ON FRIDAY...WITH A SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER...WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO BE
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 632 AM EDT...WEAK RIDGING IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER OUR
REGION. A CLOSED OFF SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DIVING OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF LOW REMAINS WELL TO OUR EAST
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SUNNY SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
WITH JUST A FEW THIN HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER WESTERN AREAS. MOST
OF THE REGION LOOKS TO HAVE A MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING...ALLOWING FOR
TEMPS TO WARM QUICKLY AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW 30S TO MID 40S.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES LOOKS TO DIVE TOWARDS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. IT SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH
SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA TO AVOID HAVING A DIRECT IMPACT...BUT MAY
SEND SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO OUR AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...BROAD N-NE FLOW AROUND THE OCEANIC CLOSED
LOW WILL ALLOW SOME LOWER MOISTURE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO OUR
REGION AS WELL. THIS MOISTURE...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME DIURNAL CU/STRAOTCU CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN. A
STRAY SHOWER OR SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
LATE TODAY...BUT WIDESPREAD PRECIP ISN/T EXPECTED DUE TO ONLY VERY
WEAK BROAD SCALE LIFT IN PLACE. THE 09Z 3KM HRRR SHOWS JUST SOME
VERY ISOLATED SPRINKLES/SHOWERS TRYING TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN FOR
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS SUCH AS THE TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES...BUT WE
WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THESE ACTUALLY DEVELOP INTO ANYTHING
MEASURABLE.
HIGHS TODAY WON/T BE AS WARM AS YESTERDAY SINCE MIXING WON/T BE
QUITE AS DEEP. STILL...IT LOOKS SEASONABLE WITH MID 60S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL HELP A SFC LOW
DEVELOP ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTLINE TONIGHT...WHICH WILL THEN
HEAD NORTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA...AND WON/T BE ABLE TO BRING WIDESPREAD
PRECIP INTO OUR AREA. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A
BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER DUE TO WEAK TROUGH OVERHEAD BETWEEN TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY...ESP FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. ANY SHOWER WOULD BE
RATHER LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION. BY SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS START TO RISE...AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY.
CLOUD COVER WILL PROBABLY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
DUE TO THE TROUGH OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY FOR SATURDAY.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS ON
FRIDAY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...AND WILL PROBABLY REACH
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR SATURDAY DUE TO MORE EXPECTED SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT. LOWS TONIGHT...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 40S...ALTHOUGH SOME 30S ARE POSSIBLE IN HIGH
TERRAIN AND OUTLYING AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THERE IS A DECENT CONSENSUS FROM GUIDANCE THAT THE LAST BIT OF THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER ENERGY TO OUR EAST WILL EXIT SUNDAY...
WITH THE LAST OF ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE REGION WILL SEE INCREASING INFLUENCE OF FLAT UPPER
RIDGING FROM THE WEST AND LOW LEVEL WARMING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY IN CANADA WILL HELP UPPER HEIGHTS TO FALL AS
THE UPPER RIDGING GETS SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A RESULT
OF THE LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER OUR REGION. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
OF A LITTLE BIT OF LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY AND SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
THAT COULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE EXIT OF THE FRONT...A DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 70S...WITH 60S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HIGHS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...NEAR 70 HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. COULD FLIRT WITH 80 BY TUESDAY IN SOME PLACES DEPENDING
ON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S...60S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HRS ENDING 12Z/01 AT
KPOU/KPSF/KALB/KGFL...AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES CONTINUES TO BRING SOME CLOUDS FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE
REGION. A FEW INSTABILITY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
AROUND KGFL...KALB AND KPSF THIS EVENING.
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 3500 FEET WILL MOVE FROM WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MORE
SCATTERED CLOUDS THIS MORNING...AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED IN THE
KALB...KGFL AND KPSF TAFS THIS EVENING...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST AND OF A SHOWERS WERE TO OCCUR...IT
WOULD BE QUITE LIGHT...PROBABLY REMAINING VFR. THE CEILING AT KPSF
COULD LOWER TO 2500 FEET AFTER 09Z.
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 3 KT OR LESS
THROUGH MID MORNING. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NE TO SE AT LESS
THAN 10 KT IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN AT LESS
THAN 6 KT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC -SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY. ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY TO START...SOME CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. IT WILL PROBABLY NOT MIX QUITE AS DEEP AS
YESTERDAY...SO DAYTIME TEMPS WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH MID 60S FOR
VALLEY AREAS. RH VALUES LOOK TO FALL 30 TO 40 PERCENT FOR
VALLEYS...AS 35 TO 45 PERCENT ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. WITH WINDS
FAIRLY LIGHT ALOFT...E-NE TODAY WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 5-10 MPH.
RH WILL RECOVER TONIGHT 80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION AND CALM WINDS. THERE IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER
AS WELL.
RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH CONTINUED SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. THERE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER...BUT MOST AREAS
LOOK TO STAY COMPLETELY DRY...WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.
WINDS BOTH DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY 5 MPH OR LESS FROM A
N-NE DIRECTION ON FRIDAY...AND A N-NW DIRECTION ON SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING
CLOSE TO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...NONE WILL BE DIRECTLY
IMPACTING THE AREA. ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY /MAINLY OVER HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS/...MOST AREAS LOOK TO STAY DRY AND ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION. MAINLY DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO
OCCUR THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT RETURNS THE
CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY.
NOHRSC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT ANY SNOWPACK THAT WOULD BE OF
HYDROLOGIC SIGNIFICANCE HAS MELTED OUT OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREENS...SO THE THREAT FOR SPRING FLOODING DUE TO SNOW/ICE HAS
ENDED.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB
SITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
632 AM EDT THU APR 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY TODAY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE. SEVERAL NEARBY UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL ALLOW FOR MORE CLOUDS ON FRIDAY...WITH A SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER...WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO BE
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 632 AM EDT...WEAK RIDGING IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER OUR
REGION. A CLOSED OFF SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DIVING OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF LOW REMAINS WELL TO OUR EAST
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SUNNY SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
WITH JUST A FEW THIN HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER WESTERN AREAS. MOST
OF THE REGION LOOKS TO HAVE A MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING...ALLOWING FOR
TEMPS TO WARM QUICKLY AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW 30S TO MID 40S.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES LOOKS TO DIVE TOWARDS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. IT SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH
SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA TO AVOID HAVING A DIRECT IMPACT...BUT MAY
SEND SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO OUR AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...BROAD N-NE FLOW AROUND THE OCEANIC CLOSED
LOW WILL ALLOW SOME LOWER MOISTURE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO OUR
REGION AS WELL. THIS MOISTURE...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME DIURNAL CU/STRAOTCU CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN. A
STRAY SHOWER OR SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
LATE TODAY...BUT WIDESPREAD PRECIP ISN/T EXPECTED DUE TO ONLY VERY
WEAK BROAD SCALE LIFT IN PLACE. THE 09Z 3KM HRRR SHOWS JUST SOME
VERY ISOLATED SPRINKLES/SHOWERS TRYING TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN FOR
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS SUCH AS THE TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES...BUT WE
WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THESE ACTUALLY DEVELOP INTO ANYTHING
MEASURABLE.
HIGHS TODAY WON/T BE AS WARM AS YESTERDAY SINCE MIXING WON/T BE
QUITE AS DEEP. STILL...IT LOOKS SEASONABLE WITH MID 60S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL HELP A SFC LOW
DEVELOP ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTLINE TONIGHT...WHICH WILL THEN
HEAD NORTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA...AND WON/T BE ABLE TO BRING WIDESPREAD
PRECIP INTO OUR AREA. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A
BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER DUE TO WEAK TROUGH OVERHEAD BETWEEN TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY...ESP FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. ANY SHOWER WOULD BE
RATHER LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION. BY SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS START TO RISE...AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY.
CLOUD COVER WILL PROBABLY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
DUE TO THE TROUGH OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY FOR SATURDAY.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS ON
FRIDAY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...AND WILL PROBABLY REACH
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR SATURDAY DUE TO MORE EXPECTED SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT. LOWS TONIGHT...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 40S...ALTHOUGH SOME 30S ARE POSSIBLE IN HIGH
TERRAIN AND OUTLYING AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THERE IS A DECENT CONSENSUS FROM GUIDANCE THAT THE LAST BIT OF THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER ENERGY TO OUR EAST WILL EXIT SUNDAY...
WITH THE LAST OF ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE REGION WILL SEE INCREASING INFLUENCE OF FLAT UPPER
RIDGING FROM THE WEST AND LOW LEVEL WARMING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY IN CANADA WILL HELP UPPER HEIGHTS TO FALL AS
THE UPPER RIDGING GETS SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A RESULT
OF THE LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER OUR REGION. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
OF A LITTLE BIT OF LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY AND SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
THAT COULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE EXIT OF THE FRONT...A DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 70S...WITH 60S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HIGHS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...NEAR 70 HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. COULD FLIRT WITH 80 BY TUESDAY IN SOME PLACES DEPENDING
ON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S...60S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HRS ENDING 06Z/01 AT
KPOU/KPSF/KALB/KGFL...AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES CONTINUES TO BRING SOME CLOUDS FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE
REGION. A FEW INSTABILITY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
AROUND KGFL...KALB AND KPSF THIS EVENING.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE FROM WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TO THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME AREAS COULD SEE
PERIODS OF CEILINGS AS LOW AS 4000-5000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A VCSH GROUP WAS ALSO PLACED IN THE KALB...KGFL AND KPSF
TAFS THIS EVENING...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AT BEST AND OF A SHOWERS WERE TO OCCUR...IT WOULD BE QUITE
LIGHT...PROBABLY REMAINING VFR.
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE N TO E AT LESS THAN 10 KT EARLY THIS
MORNING THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 3 KT OR LESS
BEFORE SUNRISE. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NE TO SE AT LESS THAN 10
KT IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN AT LESS THAN 6
KT THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC -SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY. ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY TO START...SOME CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. IT WILL PROBABLY NOT MIX QUITE AS DEEP AS
YESTERDAY...SO DAYTIME TEMPS WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH MID 60S FOR
VALLEY AREAS. RH VALUES LOOK TO FALL 30 TO 40 PERCENT FOR
VALLEYS...AS 35 TO 45 PERCENT ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. WITH WINDS
FAIRLY LIGHT ALOFT...E-NE TODAY WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 5-10 MPH.
RH WILL RECOVER TONIGHT 80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION AND CALM WINDS. THERE IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER
AS WELL.
RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH CONTINUED SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. THERE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER...BUT MOST AREAS
LOOK TO STAY COMPLETELY DRY...WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.
WINDS BOTH DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY 5 MPH OR LESS FROM A
N-NE DIRECTION ON FRIDAY...AND A N-NW DIRECTION ON SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING
CLOSE TO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...NONE WILL BE DIRECTLY
IMPACTING THE AREA. ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY /MAINLY OVER HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS/...MOST AREAS LOOK TO STAY DRY AND ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION. MAINLY DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO
OCCUR THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT RETURNS THE
CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY.
NOHRSC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT ANY SNOWPACK THAT WOULD BE OF
HYDROLOGIC SIGNIFICANCE HAS MELTED OUT OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREENS...SO THE THREAT FOR SPRING FLOODING DUE TO SNOW/ICE HAS
ENDED.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB
SITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
921 AM EDT THU APR 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD THOUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON TUESDAY AND MAY STALL OVER OUR REGION
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
9:30 AM UPDATE: AN UPDATED LOOK AT MESOSCALE MODEL DATA SUCH AS
THE RAP HRRR AND WRF-NMM SHOWS A SLIGHTLY LONGER WAIT TIME BEFORE
ANY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. ALSO, TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN LOWERED BY
SEVERAL DEGREES THIS MORNING AS THE RISE IN TEMPERATURE IS
CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY, LIKELY DUE TO A CHANGE OF
AIRMASSES. MODELED 925 MB TEMPERATURES STILL SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 60`S ON AVERAGE TODAY.
PREVIOUS:
AN UPR LOW NR THE GRTLKS WILL MOVE SEWD WHILE A
SFC LOW OFF THE CAROLINA CST WILL MOVE TO THE NE AND EVENTUALLY E.
BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS OVER THE
REGION.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS, THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT WRT PRECIP PLACEMENT, BUT THE BEST CHCS LOOK TO BE OVER
THE LWR DELMARVA AND THEN NWWD INTO MD AND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE
CWA. MOST LOCATIONS DO APPEAR TO BE DRY DURG THE DAY.
THE GFS DOES CONTINUE IT`S WET BIAS, BRINGING SOME PRECIP UP HT I-95
CORRIDOR. IT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP THINGS
DRY. WITH A GUSTY E TO NE WIND, DESPITE TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 60S,
WITH CLOUD COVER WIT WILL FEEL COOLER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR LOW WILL BE ABOUT TO PASS OFF
THE CST BY DAYBREAK FRI AND THIS WILL CAUSE THE SFC LOW TO MOVE EVEN
FURTHER EWD WITH TIME. ONCE AGAIN, MOST, IF NOT ALL PRECIP SHOULD
BE CONFINED TO THE LWR DELMARVA WITH MOST OTHER PLACES REMAINING
CLOUDY AND DRY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COMPLEX PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH CUT-OFF,
MID-LEVEL LOW INVOF THE MID-ATLANTIC. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES
FURTHER OFFSHORE...FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AS THE FLOW BECOMES PARALLEL TO THIS FEATURE, IT
MAY STALL OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
OVERALL...THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE FRIDAY MORNING
AND AGAIN DURING THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME...WITH TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FRIDAY...EXPECTING A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR
NORTH HEAVIER PRECIP MAKES IT INTO THE DELMARVA...AS WELL AS
JUST HOW QUICKLY IT MOVES OFFSHORE. THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING
WITH A 2.0 INCH QPF BULLSEYE JUST OFFSHORE. ATTM...GENERALLY
LIGHT QPF IN THE FORECAST W/AMOUNTS GENERALLY UNDER 0.5 INCH
CONFINED TO THE DELMARVA. COULD CERTAINLY SEE PRECIP LINGER
LONGER INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY IF THIS SYSTEM SLOWS A BIT.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...THERE WILL ALSO BE A TIGHT
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG
THE COAST OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. A COOL DAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW.
SATURDAY...S/WV DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BACK-
SIDE OF DEPARTING MID-LEVEL, CUTOFF LOW. THERE IS SUFFICIENT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH A SURFACE TROUGH...SO -SHRA
ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THE MID-LEVEL LOW NEARBY..CANNOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED -TSRA...BUT LEFT MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW AS STABILITY INDICES ARE MARGINAL AT BEST.
SUNDAY...EXPECTING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
-SHRA...BUT NOT BUYING THE GFS QPF...WHICH APPEARS OVERDONE.
MONDAY...ANOTHER FAIR WEATHER DAY WITH A DRY WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE EXPECTED. ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES...COOLER
NEAR THE COAST IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW.
MONDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION...W/THE MID-LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMING PARALLEL
TO THIS FEATURE...WHICH MAY STALL OVER THE REGION BY MID-
WEEK. THIS LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY IN POPS AND TEMPS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THU THE DAY
TODAY AND AT MOST SITES TONIGHT. HOWEVER, AT KMIV AND KACY, SOME
MVFR IS FCST TWD THE END OF THE PD. CONFIDENCE IS LWR THAN AVERAGE
ON THE MVFR CONDS.
AN UPR LOW NR THE GRTLKS WILL MOVE SEWD THRU TONIGHT AND BE LOCATED
IN NC BY DAYBREAK FRI. A SFC LOW WILL FORM NR THE CAROLINAS AND
MOVE NEWD THEN EWD. SOME PRECIP IS PSBL MAINLY S OF THE TAF SITES,
BUT THE BEST CHCS WUD BE AT KMIV AND KACY. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT
OF THE INDIVIDUAL FCSTS.
A GUSTY E TO NE WIND WILL DEVELOP DURG THE DAY AND CUD GUST AS HIGH
AS 20 KT. THE GUSTINESS SHUD DECREASE AFTER SUNSET BUT MAY LINGER
AT KMIV AND KACY.
OUTLOOK...
FRI AND SAT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED. WINDS
MAY GUST TO 25 KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST ON FRI.
SUN AND MON...VFR EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
THE SCA HEADLINE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNCHANGED AS NELY
FLOW DEVELOPS AND INCREASES. THE WIND CUD GUST TO 30 KT AND SEAS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 7 FT.
OUTLOOK..
FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS FRIDAY EVENING.
SAT THRU MON...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLW SCA CRITERIA.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH THE FULL MOON ON SATURDAY, ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES BY FRIDAY
WILL ALREADY BE NEAR MEAN HIGHER HIGH WATER. THEREFORE, DEPENDING
ON HOW CLOSE THE COASTAL LOW TRACKS TO OUR REGION, THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THIS IS VERY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW,
AND AT THIS POINT, THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING FURTHER EAST WITH THE
TRACK, CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. THE FURTHER EAST THE TRACK IS, THE
LESS OF AN IMPACT FOR OUR REGION.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
FRIDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...GAINES/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/NIERENBERG
MARINE...FRANCK/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
938 AM EDT THU APR 30 2015
.DISCUSSION... CURRENT...LATE SEASON FRONTAL PASSAGE IS MAKING
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. THE BOUNDARY WILL PASS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TREASURE COAST VEERING WSW/W WINDS TO NW. SOME
SPRINKLES MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH CLEARING LOWER CLOUDS MAINLY DURING
THE MORNING BEFORE DEEPER DRYING WORKS SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS DURING THIS AFTERNOON WILL APPROACH 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO
20 MPH BEFORE TAPERING OFF WITH LOSS OF POST FRONTAL GRADIENT AND
AFTERNOON MIXING. LOCAL HRRR GUID SHOWS DEVELOPMENT OF AN MID
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE VEERING WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE CST. TIMING OF THIS ONSHORE WIND WL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY
CLOUD COVERAGE DIMINISHES.
&&
.AVIATION...SOME MORNING STRATUS (IFR) TO PLAGUE TERMINALS ALONG THE
I-4 CORRIDOR PAST SUNRISE BEFORE BURNING OFF BY AROUND 11 AM. DRIER
AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TODAY BEHIND LATEST WEAK
FRONTAL TROUGH. A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS MAY BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDDAY. VFR CONDS PAST MIDDAY.
&&
.MARINE...CURRENT-TONIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PRESS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS ALL THE WATERS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL VEER
TO NW WHILE INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON FOR WELL
OFFSHORE. CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS OFFSHORE FOR WINDS. SEAS 2-4 FT NEAR
SHORE AND 4-5 FT OFFSHORE. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL FALL BACK TO 3-4 FT
AREAWIDE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
JP/ALM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1025 AM EDT THU APR 30 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT THU APR 30 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WISCONSIN WILL PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME CLOUDS ALONG WITH CHANCES
FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE UPPER LOW WILL DEPART TONIGHT...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING DRY
AND PLEASANT WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE START OF WEEKEND.
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA BY SUNDAY AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA ALONG WITH
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1006 AM EDT THU APR 30 2015
CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN WITH FORCING ALOFT EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE REGION.
SEEING A MIX OF CLOUDS WITH POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWERS AS WELL.
TEMPS AS OF 14Z GENERALLY RANGED FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...MAINTAINING UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS
AND PRECIP. RAP DATA SHOWING VERY COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM...ON THE ORDER OF -27 TO -29C AT 500MB. PRESENCE OF
THE VERY COLD AIR WILL ENABLE CLOUDS TO EXPAND INTO COVERAGE INTO
THE AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS PROMOTE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION. AXIS OF 100-300 J/KG CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH LAYER
SETTING UP OVER SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...EXPECT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITHIN SOME OF THE
STRONGER CELLS. WILL INTRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF A TERRE HAUTE-INDY METRO-MUNCIE LINE. GRAUPEL AND OR
SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY WITH ANY STRONGER CELL AS
WET BULB ZERO LEVELS PROGGED AT 3500-4000FT FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON.
PRECIP WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE UPPER LOW TRACKS INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND INSTABILITY IS
LOST. BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS...BROUGHT IN WIND GUSTS TO 20-25MPH
FOR THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER
50S...POSSIBLY LOWER 60S OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT THU APR 30 2015
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE TEMPS.
GFS AND NAM BOTH AGREE THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL QUICKLY DEPART THIS
EVENING...AND ALONG WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND THE
MINIMAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO BEGIN WITH WILL DIMINISH TO NIL. GFS
AND NAM THEN ALLOW THE STRONG RIDGE THAT IS IN PLACE OVER THE
WESTERN PLAINS TO BUILD EAST ACROSS INDIANA AND THE GREAT LAKES.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD MOSTLY CLEAR
NIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS.
AS THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS TONIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS
TONIGHT AS THE DOME OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
DEPARTS. GIVEN THIS WILL TREND TONIGHTS LOWS TOWARD THE WARMER
MAVMOS. SUBTLE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN CONTINUES ON FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS 850MB TEMPS REACH NEAR 7C BY SAT. WILL TREND HIGHS
WITH A SLOWLY GRADUAL WARMING TREND. A MAVMOS/METMOS BLEND SHOULD
WORK FINE THERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT THU APR 30 2015
A WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD AS A WARM FRONT ENTERS THE LOWER MIDWEST.
HOWEVER...WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT LIFTING MECHANISMS AND RIDGING
ALOFT...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LOW. MOST
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. CHANCES WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY NIGHT THOUGH AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. AS THIS FRONT STALLS OUT AND EVENTUALLY
PUSHES BACK NORTH IN THE FORM OF A WARM FRONT LATE IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...LOW PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TRENDED ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. HIGHS
WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 301500Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM EDT THU APR 30 2015
VORTICITY LOBE CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL
AREA BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE...HOWEVER THE CHANCES FOR A DIRECT
IMPACT ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AS WELL.
SURFACE WIND REALLY DON/T PICK UP MUCH UNTIL THE UPPER AIR FEATURE
GETS CLOSER...SO WILL PUSH BACK THE TIMING OF THE WIND GUSTS A
COUPLE MORE HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD DESPITE SOME
LOW RAIN CHANCES /MAINLY AT KHUF AND KBMG/ DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY...INCREASING TO 12 TO 14 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 21 KTS LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING BUT REMAIN NORTHERLY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA/RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/JAS
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1006 AM EDT THU APR 30 2015
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT THU APR 30 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WISCONSIN WILL PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME CLOUDS ALONG WITH CHANCES
FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE UPPER LOW WILL DEPART TONIGHT...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING DRY
AND PLEASANT WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE START OF WEEKEND.
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA BY SUNDAY AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA ALONG WITH
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1006 AM EDT THU APR 30 2015
CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN WITH FORCING ALOFT EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE REGION.
SEEING A MIX OF CLOUDS WITH POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWERS AS WELL.
TEMPS AS OF 14Z GENERALLY RANGED FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...MAINTAINING UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS
AND PRECIP. RAP DATA SHOWING VERY COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM...ON THE ORDER OF -27 TO -29C AT 500MB. PRESENCE OF
THE VERY COLD AIR WILL ENABLE CLOUDS TO EXPAND INTO COVERAGE INTO
THE AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS PROMOTE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION. AXIS OF 100-300 J/KG CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH LAYER
SETTING UP OVER SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...EXPECT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITHIN SOME OF THE
STRONGER CELLS. WILL INTRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF A TERRE HAUTE-INDY METRO-MUNCIE LINE. GRAUPEL AND OR
SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY WITH ANY STRONGER CELL AS
WET BULB ZERO LEVELS PROGGED AT 3500-4000FT FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON.
PRECIP WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE UPPER LOW TRACKS INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND INSTABILITY IS
LOST. BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS...BROUGHT IN WIND GUSTS TO 20-25MPH
FOR THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER
50S...POSSIBLY LOWER 60S OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT THU APR 30 2015
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE TEMPS.
GFS AND NAM BOTH AGREE THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL QUICKLY DEPART THIS
EVENING...AND ALONG WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND THE
MINIMAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO BEGIN WITH WILL DIMINISH TO NIL. GFS
AND NAM THEN ALLOW THE STRONG RIDGE THAT IS IN PLACE OVER THE
WESTERN PLAINS TO BUILD EAST ACROSS INDIANA AND THE GREAT LAKES.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD MOSTLY CLEAR
NIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS.
AS THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS TONIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS
TONIGHT AS THE DOME OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
DEPARTS. GIVEN THIS WILL TREND TONIGHTS LOWS TOWARD THE WARMER
MAVMOS. SUBTLE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN CONTINUES ON FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS 850MB TEMPS REACH NEAR 7C BY SAT. WILL TREND HIGHS
WITH A SLOWLY GRADUAL WARMING TREND. A MAVMOS/METMOS BLEND SHOULD
WORK FINE THERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT THU APR 30 2015
A WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD AS A WARM FRONT ENTERS THE LOWER MIDWEST.
HOWEVER...WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT LIFTING MECHANISMS AND RIDGING
ALOFT...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LOW. MOST
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. CHANCES WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY NIGHT THOUGH AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. AS THIS FRONT STALLS OUT AND EVENTUALLY
PUSHES BACK NORTH IN THE FORM OF A WARM FRONT LATE IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...LOW PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TRENDED ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. HIGHS
WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 30/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 727 AM EDT THU APR 30 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD DESPITE
SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES /MAINLY AT KHUF AND KBMG/ DUE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY...INCREASING TO 12 TO 14
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 21 KTS LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF
THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN NORTHERLY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA/RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
657 AM EDT THU APR 30 2015
.AVIATION...
LOCALIZED LOW LEVEL DYNAMICS UNDER BROADER DEFORMATION FORCING WILL
STALL OUT OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. BY LATE THIS
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE RESPONSIBLE FOR
THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE PASSED FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PIVOT THE
BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS BACK TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. WILL CONTINUE TO
CALL FOR PREVAILING RAIN AT THE DETROIT TERMINALS UNTIL 15Z BEFORE
DRYING THINGS OUT. MODEL DATA DOES SUPPORT BRINGING AN AREA OF
ENHANCED MOISTURE BACK INTO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN FROM THE EAST
AFTER 20Z. ACCOUNTED FOR THIS POTENTIAL WITH A TEMPO GROUPING.
FOR DTW...FORCING WILL STALL OUT OVER THE DETROIT TERMINALS THIS
MORNING BEFORE MIGRATING WESTWARD. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL AND
REMAIN BELOW 5 KFT AGL MOMENTARILY. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TO AROUND
15Z. VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN LATE THURSDAY.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CIGS AOB 5KFT THIS MORNING.
* LOW FOR CIGS BACK ABOVE 5KFT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 358 AM EDT THU APR 30 2015
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE TIGHT MIDLEVEL POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY AND ACCOMPANYING
MIDLEVEL COLD POOL CONTINUES TO DROP STRAIGHT SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. CONVERGENCE OF THE
MASS FIELD IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FORWARD EASTERN FLANK OF THIS COLD
POOL AND INCREASING EASTERLY SYSTEM RELATIVE FLOW HAS RESULTED IN
POSITIVE CONTRIBUTIONS OF BOTH TILTING AND MIDLEVEL STRETCHING
DEFORMATION. THE COMBINED FORCING HAS RESULTED IN A WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHGIAN FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. THE RECENT TREND OF THE RADAR OUTPUT HAS BEEN FOR A FOCUS OF
THE RAIN SHOWERS DOWN TO DETROIT AND THE RIVERS. RADAR ECHOES HAVE
BEEN HOLDING STEADY IN ADDITION TO BANDS OF CONTINUED CLOUDTOP
COOLING IN IR IMAGERY. ALTHOUGH RADAR ESTIMATES LIKELY CONTAIN SOME
BRIGHTBAND CONTAMINATION...SOME AREAS OVER WAYNE AND MONROE COUNTIES
WILL LIKELY REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GREATER THAN .5 INCH. AS A
RESULT...INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL THROUGH 12Z.
MODEL DATA SUPPORTS BOTH CENTERING AND CONTRACTING THE STRETCHING
DEFORMATION AXIS OVER EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AROUND
12Z...BEFORE SLOWLY PIVOTING TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...THE SOLUTION SPACE OF THE
NAM/RUC/ECWMF AND HRRR HAVE THE MOST TRUSTWORTHY OF OUTPUT WITH
REGARDS TO QPF PLACEMENT. THEREFORE...EXPECT A WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
OF RAIN SHOWERS TO HOLD FIRM THROUGH 14 OR 15Z...BEFORE SCATTERING
OUT. SOME HI RESOLUTION CONVECTION ALLOWING NWP ALONG WITH THE HRRR
IS ADVERTISING A SOLUTION FOR A RAIN SHOWER CHANCE ONCE AGAIN DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTING THAT RAIN ACTIVITY
OVER PORTIONS OF PENNSYLVANIA RESIDE WITHIN A MOISTURE AXIS THAT
WILL GET DRAWN NORTHWARD AND THEN ADVECTED WESTWARD TOWARND THE LAKE
MICHIGAN PV ANOMALY. THEREFORE...IT IS THIS ACTIVITY THAT COULD
BACKDOOR ACROSS THE DETROIT RIVER/LAKE ST CLAIR SOMETIME AFTER 20Z
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
BE STRUGGLING EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL ONLY ACCOUNT FOR THIS
WITH A CHANCE POP BETWEEN 16-00Z. WITH THE OPAQUE CLOUD...TRENDED
HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THE SOUTHERN
1/3RD OF THE CWA.
SUBSIDENCE WILL WRAP BACK INTO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN QUICKLY AFTER
00Z TONIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL TO SOUTH OF THE OHIO/MICHIGAN STATELINE. WILL ACTUALLY SEE
SOME MINOR WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT...KEEPING LOWS IN THE 40S
FOR MANY LOCATIONS (RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE).
LONG TERM...
WARMER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
CURRENT UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE EAST COAST AND BEYOND AND UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE AREA AS THE MAIN WESTERLIES REFOCUS
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN CANADA AND UPPER TROUGHING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS REPLACED BY MODEST ZONAL FLOW. WITH THE
STORM TRACK SO FAR NORTH INTO THE WEEKEND...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED INTO MUCH OF SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES BUILDING FROM THE MID
60S FRIDAY TO 70 OR BETTER FOR MOST LOCATIONS BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
WHILE MILD WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...THE CHANCE
OF RAIN...AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES...WILL INCREASE AS A SERIES OF
STRONG SHORTWAVE BUCKLE THE STRONG ZONAL FLOW OVER MID NOAM SLIGHTLY
AND ALLOWS THE MEAN FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ALONG THE SWATH OF
WESTERLIES TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WHERE IT WILL
REMAIN UNTIL MIDWEEK. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WESTERN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRITISH COLUMBIA PICK
UP AN UPPER LOW MEANDERING OVER CALIFORNIA/FOUR CORNERS. DOWNSTREAM
OF THIS FEATURE...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND
MAINTAIN MILD WEATHER GENERALLY ABOVE AVERAGE BY SEVERAL DEGREES.
DURING THIS TIME...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BECOME MORE
SCATTERED AS THE FOCUS OF MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION SHIFTS BACK
NORTH FOR AT LEAST A DAY OR TWO LATE NEXT WEEK. WITH THE TRANSITION
TO A MORE MODERATE PATTERN...THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF FROST
OVER FREEZING TEMPERATURES FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO MID/LATE NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS
FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE LOW PIVOTS EAST TO SOUTHEAST
TO THE MID ATLANTIC SHORELINE. WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
LIGHT...10 TO 15 KNOT FLOW LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS WILL PRODUCE SOME ENHANCED WAVE DEVELOPMENT. THAT
SAID...WAVES SHOULD STILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERION FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SMALL AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
THROUGH THE AREA. LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THIS HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....CB
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....DG
MARINE.......DG
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
650 AM EDT THU APR 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER AND JUST OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY... THEN SHIFT OVERHEAD
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LOW AND DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT... AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM THURSDAY...
OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS WILL BE DRIVEN BY TWO PRIMARY
FEATURES... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING SRN AL/GA THIS MORNING THEN
MOVING OFFSHORE BY AFTERNOON... AND A POTENT MID LEVEL LOW OVER
LOWER MI THIS MORNING THAT WILL CROSS NC LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRI.
BOTH OF THESE WILL BE OPERATING ON A SOMEWHAT MOIST COLUMN WITH
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PW AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT... LEADING TO
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR CENTRAL NC.
FOR THIS MORNING... AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE PERSIST OVER AND
EAST OF THE TRIANGLE... A FUNCTION OF ENHANCED ATLANTIC EASTERLY
INFLOW AND MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AROUND 295K NEAR AND NE OF THE
850 MB LOW OVER SE NC. THIS LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY NE OVER ERN NC
TODAY... AS THE ABOVE-NORMAL PW SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST TO COASTAL
SECTIONS... AND ACCORDINGLY THE MOIST UPGLIDE WILL TRANSLATE NE INTO
ERN VA LATER TODAY. WE`LL RETAIN A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EAST
FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING... GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA BY
THE NOON HOUR. MEANWHILE... THE WRN CWA WILL SEE A BRIEF LULL IN
PRECIP CHANCES THIS MORNING... BENEATH LOWER PW... DOWNSLOPE 850 MB
FLOW... AND NEUTRAL VERTICAL MOTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE ALOFT.
THE LATEST HRRR RUNS SUPPORT PATCHES OF FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK IN THE
SW CWA... WHERE SKIES FIRST CLEARED OUT EARLIER THIS MORNING.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON... THE RELATIVE MINIMUM IN RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST
OF CENTRAL NC WILL BE SHORT LIVED... AS THE MI LOW DROPS SSE TOWARD
THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS... WITH WEAK BUT PERSISTENT
MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS STRETCHING ACROSS NC. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF 6.5-7.0 C/KM SPREAD INTO WRN/CENTRAL NC FROM THE NW DURING THE
DAY... PUSHING MUCAPE VALUES UP TO 250-750 J/KG... WITH ADDED
FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM MID LEVEL DPVA AND PERSISTENT UPPER
DIVERGENCE. THE HI-RES WRF ARW/NMM AS WELL AS RECENT HRRR RUNS SHOW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN PIEDMONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON (RIGHT
ON THE HEELS OF THE RAIN THAT WILL BE PUSHING OUT OF THE FAR NE CWA
BY THIS TIME)... AND THE FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THESE TRENDS WITH POPS
RAMPING UP TO GOOD CHANCE AND LOW-END LIKELY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON... STARTING FIRST OVER THE NW CWA AND SPREADING
ESE. DON`T EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER... BUT GIVEN THESE STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND INVERTED-V SIGNALS ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS LATE TODAY...
LOCALLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS AND A LITTLE SMALL HAIL ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S NE WHERE SKIES WILL STAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY... TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE SW CWA WHERE SUNSHINE WILL
BE MOST ABUNDANT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT: THE MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIVE
FROM ERN KY ESE THROUGH WRN NC TONIGHT... AND THE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS OVER THE PIEDMONT AND INTO
THE SANDHILLS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL ACCORDINGLY SPREAD EAST.
COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE A BIT WITH THE NOCTURNAL COOLING TRIMMING
INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT... BUT THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN
AROUND 6.5 OVER THE NRN CWA OVERNIGHT... WITH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL
MASS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SHARPENING LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ACROSS
NC... ALONG WITH PERSISTENT UPPER DIVERGENCE. PW WILL STAY ELEVATED
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP CHANCE
POPS OVERNIGHT INTO FRI... HIGHEST OVER THE NRN AND ERN CWA. LOWS 48-
53. SHOWERS SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE AND EXIT TO THE EAST AS THE LOW
TO MID LEVEL LOW DEPARTS TO OUR EAST DURING FRI. WILL KEEP CHANCE
POPS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON... THEN
DECREASE CHANCES FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD. WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS
FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND MODEL THICKNESSES RUNNING 20 M OR SO BELOW
NORMAL... EXPECT COOL HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 60S NE TO UPPER 60S SW.
WE SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES FRI NIGHT AS THE COLUMN DRIES OUT
WITHIN POST-LOW SUBSIDENCE. LOWS AROUND 45-50. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...
CERTAINLY A DRYING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT SO ANY COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SIDE OF
THE HIGH WILL BE LIMITED AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DAYTIME HEATING TO BRING MAX TEMPERATURE UP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...MODELS ARE TRYING TO PICK UP A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM A LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC. THE BEST VORTICITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS BETWEEN 900-800 MB AND THE MODEL
PRODUCES SOME BROKEN CEILINGS WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. QPF IS VERY MINIMAL AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW
THAT THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING OR MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ANY RAIN.
MORE LIKELY WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS BUT SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
APPROACHING HIGH WILL LIKELY OVERCOME MOST OF WHAT THE SURFACE
TROUGH HAS TO OFFER. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHEAST BUT OTHERWISE DRY. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.
SUNDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE AREA AND OFF TO THE
EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTION COULD BRING
SOME BROKEN CUMULUS TO THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON BUT MOISTURE IS
LIMITED AND OTHER THAN A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS.
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE AREA (ALTHOUGH VERY LIGHT)
EXPECT HIGHS TO MOVE UP INTO THE UPPER 70S. LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK
AND A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 DEGREES. A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC MAY THREATEN NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH A FEW
CLOUDS BUT OTHERWISE NOT MUCH IMPACT TO WEATHER. THE GFS HINTS AT
THIS FEATURE TRYING TO PUSH DOWN INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE FEATURE OVER THE DC AREA. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ENOUGH IN THE PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
AND PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME IN
THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM THURSDAY...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAY... WHICH WILL SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
UNTIL AROUND 15Z THIS MORNING... EASTERN TAFS INCLUDING RDU/RWI
SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z THIS AFTERNOON... WITH ANY
CIGS HOLDING ABOVE 4000 FT AGL... HOWEVER PERIODS OF PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN AT THESE SITES THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE
BRIEF BORDERLINE MVFR VSBYS (5SM-6SM). AT INT/GSO... A PERIOD OF
MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING (MAINLY UNTIL 13Z)...
ALTHOUGH OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH 18Z WITH A LOWER CHANCE OF RAIN AS COMPARED TO EASTERN
SITES. AFTER 18Z... AN APPROACHING STRONG UPPER LOW FROM THE NW WILL
BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS... FIRST AT
INT/GSO/RDU/RWI THEN AT FAY AFTER 21Z. SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL
INITIALLY BE BRIEF WITH THESE SHOWERS BEFORE 00Z. AFTER 00Z... IFR
FOG/STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO FORM AT RDU/RWI/FAY... WHILE VFR CIGS
SHOULD HOLD AT INT/GSO THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD (06Z
FRI). GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS (MAINLY IFR) AS WE APPROACH
DAYBREAK FRI... ESPECIALLY AT RDU/RWI... AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SHIFTS OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT (UNDER 8 KTS)
AND VARIABLE... EXCEPT 15Z-22Z WHEN WINDS WILL BE AROUND 8 KTS AND
MAINLY FROM THE NW AT INT/GSO/FAY AND MAINLY FROM THE NORTH AT
RDU/RWI.
LOOKING BEYOND 12Z EARLY FRI MORNING: CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
RISE TO MVFR BY 16Z-18Z AND TO VFR BY 21Z FRI AS THE DISTURBANCE
EXITS. VFR CONDITIONS THEN LIKELY FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1053 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1039 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015
STARTED RED FLAG EARLY AS TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY JUMPED INTO
THE 60S WITH RH VALUES DOWN IN THE 20S. WINDS HAVE PEAKED AT
KMBG/KABR AROUND 30MPH AS WELL.
FOCUS SHIFTS TO AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HRRR INDICATES HIGH/SFC
BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPING BETWEEN KMBG/KABR THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH BASES ABOVE 0C...SO POTENTIALLY A DRY MICROBURST
ENVIRONMENT. NAM SOUNDINGS ARE A TAD MORE HUMID...BUT CIGS WILL
LIKELY STILL BE ABOVE 7KFT AND HAVE TO OVERCOME A VERY DRY
SUBCLOUD LAYER FOR PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE SURFACE. AS FOR
TIMING...THE 12Z NAM IS STILL RATHER CONSISTENT...IN LINE WITH
FORECAST AND PREVIOUS NAM/GFS GUIDANCE. THE HRRR IS MUCH FARTHER
EAST...SO AT THIS POINT WILL KEEP CURRENT PROGRESSION OF POPS
ACROSS THE CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015
FIRST ITEM OF DISCUSSION WILL BE THE VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST RH VALUES ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S EAST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER. SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE SOME WIND GUSTS MEET OR EXCEED 25 MPH
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST SD. PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD ALREADY
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR FIRE ZONES 269 AND 271. BASED ON
CURRENT FORECAST RH AND WIND GUSTS...HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND RED
FLAG WARNING TO INCLUDE FIRE ZONES 272 AND 273 AS WELL. WIND
SPEEDS MAY BE A BIT MARGINAL...BUT SHOULD STILL BE AROUND OR JUST
OVER 25 MPH GUSTS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. MIXED LAYER WINDS ARE NOT
ALL TOO IMPRESSIVE...ONLY AROUND 20 KNOTS. BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH
MOMENTUM TO SEE HIGHER GUSTS.
WILL ALSO BE WATCHING A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALL HI RES MODELS ARE SHOWING SCT ACTIVITY
MOVING INTO CORSON AND DEWEY COUNTIES AFTER 21Z SO HAVE INCREASED
POPS AND WENT WITH COVERAGE WORDING INSTEAD OF UNCERTAINTY. HI RES
SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY ALSO SUGGESTING ACTIVITY HOLDS TOGETHER
ALONG THE FRONT IN SOME FORM OF A BROKEN LINE AS IT TRACKS EAST
ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE INCREASED POPS OVERNIGHT A BIT AS WELL AND
CONTINUED THE COVERAGE WORDING. ONLY MINIMAL INSTABILITY PRESENT
BUT JUST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSHOWERS AS WELL.
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT LOOKS TO CLEAR THE CWA BY 12Z
FRIDAY.
FRIDAY ITSELF LOOKING VERY PLEASANT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH SUNNY SKIES AND
TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS. WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY CONDITIONS
FRIDAY NIGHT. ON SATURDAY...MID LEVEL TEMPS WARM QUITE A BIT AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. GOOD MIXING DEVELOPS BY AFTERNOON WITH
IMPRESSIVE WARMING AT THE SFC. WIDESPREAD 80S ARE EXPECTED AND
ANTICIPATE SATURDAY TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SPRING THUS FAR.
WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE ARRIVAL OF A SFC TROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS. MOISTURE MAY
BE LIMITED SO WILL ONLY INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015
A WEAK FRONT/TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS ON SAT
NIGHT/SUNDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS. ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE WILL KEEP SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT RELATIVELY QUIET...THOUGH SUPERBLEND KEEPS
SOME POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA DUE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT MAY
BRING SHOWERS.
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT TUESDAY NIGHT AS A POTENT UPPER LOW
STARTS TO MOVE EAST. COUPLED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING ATMOSPHERICALLY STACKED LOW AND AN OPEN GULF
STARTING ON WED PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE GREATLY. BOTH THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS MID WEEK SYSTEM.
IF THIS PATTERN PERSISTS AND IT DOES NOT SHIFT SOUTH AS HAS BEEN
THE TREND...THIS LOW WILL BE ONE OF THE MORE WELL DEVELOPED
SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS THE REGION HAS SEEN ALL YEAR.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 30 KTS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
TODAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND DIMINISH. SOME SHOWERS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ269-271>273.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1050 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015
.UPDATE...
DEEP 500 MB LOW PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN HAS BROUGHT
OVERCAST SKIES AND A FEW SPRINKLES TO EASTERN WISCONSIN. THE LOW
SHOULD FINALLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING THE
SKIES TO SCATTER OUT RESULTING IN A VERY PLEASANT AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WE ENDED UP ADJUSTING TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES IN OUR WEST WHERE
MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.
OTHERWISE LEFT TO FORECAST AS IS.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
A DEEP MID-LEVEL LOW HAS BROUGHT MVFR CIGS TO MKE...ENW...AND
UES. CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
FINALLY MOVES OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING SKIES TO SCATTER
OUT. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH AROUND NOON. TOMORROW AFTERNOON...A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE STATE BRINGING SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
INTO SE WI.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015/
TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN OVER WISCONSIN TODAY INTO TONIGHT
AS MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW NEAR THE LOWER MICHIGAN/INDIANA BORDER
AT 12Z DROPS SE THROUGH THE DAY.
AREA REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE THE DAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY BRINGING SOME BROKEN CUMULUS DOWN THE LAKE AND
EASTERN WISCONSIN WITH INSTABILITY AS 850-925 MB COLD POOLS ROTATE
OVER THE STATE THIS MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. HRRR ALONE AMONG THE HI-RES/RAPID UPDATED MODELS IN SHOWING
SPOTTY LIGHT QPF OVER THE EAST BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z. HAVE PUT
ISOLATED SPRINKLES OVER THE EAST THIS MORNING.
EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST...WITH MIXING UP
TO 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS WITH WINDS EASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE EAST COOL...WITH HIGHS
AROUND 50 ALONG THE LAKE AND NEAR 60 INLAND...WHILE A BIT MORE SUN
WILL ALLOW HIGHS IN THE MID 60S IN THE WEST.
TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH
HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY SETTLES OVER THE STATE WITH AMPLIFIED BUT
NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE PUSHING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. MADE A
DOWNWARD TWEAK TO CONSENSUS LOWS WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
FROM OVERHEAD FRIDAY MORNING TO SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY AS THE HIGH DEPARTS...BUT NOT SEEING ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
ORGANIZED LIFT TO CONSIDER POPS MOST AREAS.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A
LAKE BREEZE IS LIKELY FRIDAY...SO EXPECT COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE
LAKE. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH SATURDAY TO PUSH THE
MILDER TEMPS ALL THE WAY TO THE LAKE. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE NORTH
OF MILWAUKEE...WHERE THE WINDS MAY BE MORE SOUTHERLY AND BRING IN
SOME COOLER LAKE AIR ALONG SHORE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD SHEBOYGAN.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MODELS ARE STILL POINTING TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER
BEGINNING ON SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING WARM AND
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO KICK
OFF SHOWERS AND STORMS. COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER
STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA WHERE THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A BETTER COMBINATION
OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY.
MORE SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT IS
PROGGED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE FOR TUESDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. MODELS THEN BRING
THE FRONT BACK NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN MORE STORM
CHANCES.
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
HIGHS COOLING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL VALUES TUESDAY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL THEN LIKELY WARM BACK UP WEDNESDAY IF THE
FRONT DOES INDEED LIFT NORTHWARD INTO/THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
EXPECT CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING TO REMAIN AT VFR
LEVELS...THOUGH SOME INDICATION OF A SHORT PERIOD OF A BROKEN MVFR
CLOUD DECK THAT WOULD AFFECT THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES MID-LATE
MORNING. COULD ALSO SEE A FEW SPRINKLES AS WELL BUT VERY ISOLATED
AND TOO FEW TO MENTION IN THE EASTERN TAFS. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY AS WELL WITH MIXING UP TO 20-30 KNOT WINDS BRINGING
SOME NEAR 20 KNOT GUSTS TO THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL EASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.
MARINE...ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN-MOST MARINE
ZONES AS NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN RISING TO 22-25 KNOTS WITH
TIGHTER GRADIENT THAN EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. WILL CARRY IT UNTIL 7 PM...BUT WILL PROBABLY NOT NEED TO
GO THAT LONG AS WINDS EASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BOATERS IN THE
REST OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS WINDS WILL
GUST TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH THE MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE DRY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES SOMEWHAT ON THE LOW SIDE TODAY AND FRIDAY...IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE...BEFORE RISING ABOVE 40 PERCENT FOR THE WEEKEND AND
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS...ESPECIALLY
THIS MORNING...WITH THE WINDS SLOWLY EASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BSH
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DDV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
956 AM MDT THU APR 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM MDT THU APR 30 2015
TODAYS FORECAST LOOKS TO BE RIGHT ON TRACK. SUNNY SKIES THIS
MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PARTICULARLY INTO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR A MIDLEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL
HANG UP NEAR THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. RELATIVELY COOL AND STABLE AIR WILL BE FOUND FARTHER
NORTH...MAKING CONVECTION LESS OF A CONCERN. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
CAPE VALUES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES AMONGST
MODELS WITH THE NAM SHOWING 1000-1500 J/KG CAPE. THIS APPEARS TO
BE A BIT TOO HIGH WHICH SEEMS TO BE COMMON IN THE NAM OUTPUT. THE
GFS AND RUC SEEM MORE REASONABLE AROUND 500 J/KG OR LESS THIS
AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS...NOT EXPECTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ANY CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS VERY LOW. GENERALLY LOOKING
FOR GARDEN VARIETY THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT THU APR 30 2015
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EAST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST OVER THE NW PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS RATHER QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. UPSLOPE
FLOW AND SOME INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR SCTD SHOWERS AND A FEW
TSTRMS TO DEVELOP OVER SE WY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY
PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. A NARROW BAND
OF DECENT CAPE PROGGED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SRN PANHANDLE AND
FAR SE WY WITH VALUES FROM ABOUT 500-1000J/KG SO A STRONGER STORM
OR TWO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. ACTIVITY SHOULD END LATER THIS
EVENING AS A SFC HIGH SETTLES DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS AND INSTABILITY
FALLS OFF. ZONAL UPPER FLOW THEN SETS UP OVER THE CWA FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SEVERAL RIPPLES IN THIS FLOW. SHOULD SEE
SOME CONVECTION FIRE MAINLY OVER THE SRN MTNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THEN GREATER COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS MILD
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT THU APR 30 2015
UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY IN THE LONG TERM AS A VERY SLOW
MOVING UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD STILL BE ONGOING SATURDAY EVENING ALONG
THE I-80 CORRIDOR FROM CHEYENNE TO RAWLINS. CONVECTION FORECAST TO
COME TO AN END THOUGH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.
GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A BOUNDARY LAYING ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE
SUNDAY AND THIS WILL BE THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON LOCATION OF THE CONVECTION. GFS
FOCUSING ON AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WHILE ECMWF
CONCENTRATING ON AREAS WEST. TENDING TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION
AND CONCENTRATED HIGHER POPS WEST.
WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING SHOULD
MOVE CONVECTION EAST INTO THE PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. BUT CONVECTION
BLOSSOMS AGAIN OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING MONDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER
PIECE OF ENERGY SPINS OFF A LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL GIVE US A FAVORABLE SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW THAT WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO THE CHEYENNE AREA MONDAY EVENING.
BY TUESDAY...UPPER LOW FORECAST TO BE MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN
COLORADO. A 60KT JET FINGER IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TO SEE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
SEVER THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. SOMETHING THAT WILL BECOME CLEARER AS
WE CLOSER TO THE EVENT.
LOW FORECAST TO MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO WEDNESDAY. SHOULD SEE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. GOOD
NEWS IS THAT BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE KEEPING WARM TEMPERATURES AT
700MBS...AROUND +6C...SO PRECIP WILL FALL AS LIQUID AND NOT AS
SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 528 AM MDT THU APR 30 2015
FIRST OFF...DO BELIEVE WE ARE HAVING ISSUES WITH THE KCYS
VISIBILITY SENSOR THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE TECHNICIANS CHECK IT OUT
WHEN THEY COME IN. VISIBILITY HERE AT KCYS IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
VFR CONDITIONS MOST OF THE DAY TODAY FOR ALL SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AIRPORTS. COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON...SO COULD BE
LOOKING AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING AT KRWL SHORTLY
AFTER 19Z. SREF GUIDANCE SHOWING LOWERING CONDITIONS HERE AT KCYS
AFTER 06Z WITH NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. STARTED
TRENDING KCYS DOWN TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT THU APR 30 2015
A COOL FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE DISTRICTS TODAY BRINGING A
NORTHERLY WIND SWITCH AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTRMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. CONCERNS LOW OVERALL THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH NON-CRITICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS AND GREENING
FUELS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...RE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
143 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
MOST OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
STAY DRY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS. SEVERAL NEARBY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ALLOW
FOR MORE CLOUDS ON FRIDAY...WITH A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A RAIN
SHOWER...WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. EVEN
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 127 PM EDT...WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER W-CNTRL NY AHEAD
OF A CLOSED LOW OVER THE MIDWEST/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
KEEP IT MAINLY DRY THIS AFTERNOON. A BROAD CUTOFF UPPER LOW NEAR
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD SOME CLOUDS WESTWARD OVER WRN NEW ENGLAND AND ERN NY.
AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR SHOWER IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING OVER WRN NEW ENGLAND AND THE NRN
CATSKILLS.THE LATEST 3KM HRRR SHOWS JUST SOME VERY ISOLATED
SPRINKLES/SHOWERS TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS SUCH
AS THE TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THESE
ACTUALLY DEVELOP INTO ANYTHING MEASURABLE. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE PICTURE...SO EXPECT PARTLY
SUNNY/MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WON/T BE AS WARM AS YESTERDAY SINCE MIXING
WON/T BE QUITE AS DEEP. STILL...IT LOOKS SEASONABLE WITH MID/U60S
FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL HELP A SFC LOW
DEVELOP ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTLINE TONIGHT...WHICH WILL THEN
HEAD NORTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA...AND WON/T BE ABLE TO BRING WIDESPREAD
PRECIP INTO OUR AREA. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A
BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER DUE TO WEAK TROUGH OVERHEAD BETWEEN TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY...ESP FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. ANY SHOWER WOULD BE
RATHER LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION. BY SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS START TO RISE...AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY.
CLOUD COVER WILL PROBABLY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
DUE TO THE TROUGH OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY FOR SATURDAY.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS ON
FRIDAY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...AND WILL PROBABLY REACH
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR SATURDAY DUE TO MORE EXPECTED SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT. LOWS TONIGHT...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 40S...ALTHOUGH SOME 30S ARE POSSIBLE IN HIGH
TERRAIN AND OUTLYING AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THERE IS A DECENT CONSENSUS FROM GUIDANCE THAT THE LAST BIT OF THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER ENERGY TO OUR EAST WILL EXIT SUNDAY...
WITH THE LAST OF ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE REGION WILL SEE INCREASING INFLUENCE OF FLAT UPPER
RIDGING FROM THE WEST AND LOW LEVEL WARMING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY IN CANADA WILL HELP UPPER HEIGHTS TO FALL AS
THE UPPER RIDGING GETS SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A RESULT
OF THE LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER OUR REGION. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
OF A LITTLE BIT OF LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY AND SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
THAT COULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE EXIT OF THE FRONT...A DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 70S...WITH 60S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HIGHS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...NEAR 70 HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. COULD FLIRT WITH 80 BY TUESDAY IN SOME PLACES DEPENDING
ON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S...60S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES CONTINUES TO BRING SOME CLOUDS FROM EAST TO
WEST OVER THE REGION. A FEW INSTABILITY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE AROUND KGFL...KALB AND KPSF THIS EVENING.
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 3500 FEET WILL MOVE FROM WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLOUDS
WILL BECOME BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED IN THE KALB...KGFL AND KPSF TAFS
THIS EVENING...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT
BEST AND OF A SHOWERS WERE TO OCCUR...IT WOULD BE QUITE
LIGHT...PROBABLY REMAINING VFR.
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NE TO SE AT LESS THAN 8 KTS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...THEN AT LESS THAN 6 KT THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC -SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NUMEROUS -SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY. ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY TO START...SOME CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. IT WILL PROBABLY NOT MIX QUITE AS DEEP AS
YESTERDAY...SO DAYTIME TEMPS WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH MID 60S FOR
VALLEY AREAS. RH VALUES LOOK TO FALL 30 TO 40 PERCENT FOR
VALLEYS...AS 35 TO 45 PERCENT ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. WITH WINDS
FAIRLY LIGHT ALOFT...E-NE TODAY WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 5-10 MPH.
RH WILL RECOVER TONIGHT 80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION AND CALM WINDS. THERE IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER
AS WELL.
RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH CONTINUED SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. THERE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER...BUT MOST AREAS
LOOK TO STAY COMPLETELY DRY...WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.
WINDS BOTH DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY 5 MPH OR LESS FROM A
N-NE DIRECTION ON FRIDAY...AND A N-NW DIRECTION ON SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING
CLOSE TO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...NONE WILL BE DIRECTLY
IMPACTING THE AREA. ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY /MAINLY OVER HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS/...MOST AREAS LOOK TO STAY DRY AND ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION. MAINLY DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO
OCCUR THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT RETURNS THE
CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY.
NOHRSC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT ANY SNOWPACK THAT WOULD BE OF
HYDROLOGIC SIGNIFICANCE HAS MELTED OUT OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREENS...SO THE THREAT FOR SPRING FLOODING DUE TO SNOW/ICE HAS
ENDED.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB
SITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
127 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
MOST OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
STAY DRY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS. SEVERAL NEARBY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ALLOW
FOR MORE CLOUDS ON FRIDAY...WITH A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A RAIN
SHOWER...WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. EVEN
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 127 PM EDT...WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER W-CNTRL NY AHEAD
OF A CLOSED LOW OVER THE MIDWEST/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
KEEP IT MAINLY DRY THIS AFTERNOON. A BROAD CUTOFF UPPER LOW NEAR
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD SOME CLOUDS WESTWARD OVER WRN NEW ENGLAND AND ERN NY.
AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR SHOWER IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING OVER WRN NEW ENGLAND AND THE NRN
CATSKILLS.THE LATEST 3KM HRRR SHOWS JUST SOME VERY ISOLATED
SPRINKLES/SHOWERS TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS SUCH
AS THE TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THESE
ACTUALLY DEVELOP INTO ANYTHING MEASURABLE. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE PICTURE...SO EXPECT PARTLY
SUNNY/MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WON/T BE AS WARM AS YESTERDAY SINCE MIXING
WON/T BE QUITE AS DEEP. STILL...IT LOOKS SEASONABLE WITH MID/U60S
FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL HELP A SFC LOW
DEVELOP ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTLINE TONIGHT...WHICH WILL THEN
HEAD NORTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA...AND WON/T BE ABLE TO BRING WIDESPREAD
PRECIP INTO OUR AREA. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A
BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER DUE TO WEAK TROUGH OVERHEAD BETWEEN TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY...ESP FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. ANY SHOWER WOULD BE
RATHER LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION. BY SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS START TO RISE...AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY.
CLOUD COVER WILL PROBABLY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
DUE TO THE TROUGH OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY FOR SATURDAY.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS ON
FRIDAY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...AND WILL PROBABLY REACH
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR SATURDAY DUE TO MORE EXPECTED SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT. LOWS TONIGHT...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 40S...ALTHOUGH SOME 30S ARE POSSIBLE IN HIGH
TERRAIN AND OUTLYING AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THERE IS A DECENT CONSENSUS FROM GUIDANCE THAT THE LAST BIT OF THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER ENERGY TO OUR EAST WILL EXIT SUNDAY...
WITH THE LAST OF ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE REGION WILL SEE INCREASING INFLUENCE OF FLAT UPPER
RIDGING FROM THE WEST AND LOW LEVEL WARMING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY IN CANADA WILL HELP UPPER HEIGHTS TO FALL AS
THE UPPER RIDGING GETS SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A RESULT
OF THE LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER OUR REGION. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
OF A LITTLE BIT OF LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY AND SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
THAT COULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE EXIT OF THE FRONT...A DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 70S...WITH 60S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HIGHS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...NEAR 70 HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. COULD FLIRT WITH 80 BY TUESDAY IN SOME PLACES DEPENDING
ON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S...60S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HRS ENDING 12Z/01 AT
KPOU/KPSF/KALB/KGFL...AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES CONTINUES TO BRING SOME CLOUDS FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE
REGION. A FEW INSTABILITY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
AROUND KGFL...KALB AND KPSF THIS EVENING.
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 3500 FEET WILL MOVE FROM WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MORE
SCATTERED CLOUDS THIS MORNING...AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED IN THE
KALB...KGFL AND KPSF TAFS THIS EVENING...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST AND OF A SHOWERS WERE TO OCCUR...IT
WOULD BE QUITE LIGHT...PROBABLY REMAINING VFR. THE CEILING AT KPSF
COULD LOWER TO 2500 FEET AFTER 09Z.
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 3 KT OR LESS
THROUGH MID MORNING. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NE TO SE AT LESS
THAN 10 KT IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN AT LESS
THAN 6 KT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC -SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY. ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY TO START...SOME CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. IT WILL PROBABLY NOT MIX QUITE AS DEEP AS
YESTERDAY...SO DAYTIME TEMPS WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH MID 60S FOR
VALLEY AREAS. RH VALUES LOOK TO FALL 30 TO 40 PERCENT FOR
VALLEYS...AS 35 TO 45 PERCENT ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. WITH WINDS
FAIRLY LIGHT ALOFT...E-NE TODAY WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 5-10 MPH.
RH WILL RECOVER TONIGHT 80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION AND CALM WINDS. THERE IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER
AS WELL.
RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH CONTINUED SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. THERE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER...BUT MOST AREAS
LOOK TO STAY COMPLETELY DRY...WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.
WINDS BOTH DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY 5 MPH OR LESS FROM A
N-NE DIRECTION ON FRIDAY...AND A N-NW DIRECTION ON SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING
CLOSE TO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...NONE WILL BE DIRECTLY
IMPACTING THE AREA. ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY /MAINLY OVER HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS/...MOST AREAS LOOK TO STAY DRY AND ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION. MAINLY DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO
OCCUR THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT RETURNS THE
CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY.
NOHRSC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT ANY SNOWPACK THAT WOULD BE OF
HYDROLOGIC SIGNIFICANCE HAS MELTED OUT OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREENS...SO THE THREAT FOR SPRING FLOODING DUE TO SNOW/ICE HAS
ENDED.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB
SITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
241 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT THU APR 30 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WISCONSIN WILL PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME CLOUDS ALONG WITH CHANCES
FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE UPPER LOW WILL DEPART TONIGHT...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING DRY
AND PLEASANT WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE START OF WEEKEND.
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA BY SUNDAY AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA ALONG WITH
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1006 AM EDT THU APR 30 2015
CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN WITH FORCING ALOFT EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE REGION.
SEEING A MIX OF CLOUDS WITH POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWERS AS WELL.
TEMPS AS OF 14Z GENERALLY RANGED FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...MAINTAINING UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS
AND PRECIP. RAP DATA SHOWING VERY COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM...ON THE ORDER OF -27 TO -29C AT 500MB. PRESENCE OF
THE VERY COLD AIR WILL ENABLE CLOUDS TO EXPAND INTO COVERAGE INTO
THE AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS PROMOTE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION. AXIS OF 100-300 J/KG CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH LAYER
SETTING UP OVER SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...EXPECT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITHIN SOME OF THE
STRONGER CELLS. WILL INTRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF A TERRE HAUTE-INDY METRO-MUNCIE LINE. GRAUPEL AND OR
SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY WITH ANY STRONGER CELL AS
WET BULB ZERO LEVELS PROGGED AT 3500-4000FT FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON.
PRECIP WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE UPPER LOW TRACKS INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND INSTABILITY IS
LOST. BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS...BROUGHT IN WIND GUSTS TO 20-25MPH
FOR THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER
50S...POSSIBLY LOWER 60S OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT THU APR 30 2015
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE TEMPS.
GFS AND NAM BOTH AGREE THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL QUICKLY DEPART THIS
EVENING...AND ALONG WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND THE
MINIMAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO BEGIN WITH WILL DIMINISH TO NIL. GFS
AND NAM THEN ALLOW THE STRONG RIDGE THAT IS IN PLACE OVER THE
WESTERN PLAINS TO BUILD EAST ACROSS INDIANA AND THE GREAT LAKES.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD MOSTLY CLEAR
NIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS.
AS THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS TONIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS
TONIGHT AS THE DOME OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
DEPARTS. GIVEN THIS WILL TREND TONIGHTS LOWS TOWARD THE WARMER
MAVMOS. SUBTLE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN CONTINUES ON FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS 850MB TEMPS REACH NEAR 7C BY SAT. WILL TREND HIGHS
WITH A SLOWLY GRADUAL WARMING TREND. A MAVMOS/METMOS BLEND SHOULD
WORK FINE THERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015
ENSEMBLES INDICATE INITIALLY ZONAL FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL AMPLIFY
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS MEAN TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN STATES AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF
THE COUNTRY.
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THERE MAY A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM POTENTIALLY GETS HUNG UP NEARBY. MAY END UP BEING
SOME DRY PERIODS...BUT FOR NOW WILL BROADBRUSH POPS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 301800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL
CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 010000Z
AS A VORTICITY LOBE DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. POTENTIAL
FOR ANY DIRECT IMPACTS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.
OTHERWISE...DIURNAL CLOUD BASES AROUND 040 WITH LAYERED CLOUDS ABOVE
EXPECTED TO THIN OUT TOWARDS/AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND
PASSAGE OF VORTICITY LOBE.
OCCASIONAL SURFACE WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS FROM 340-010 DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA/RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1234 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT THU APR 30 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WISCONSIN WILL PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME CLOUDS ALONG WITH CHANCES
FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE UPPER LOW WILL DEPART TONIGHT...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING DRY
AND PLEASANT WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE START OF WEEKEND.
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA BY SUNDAY AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA ALONG WITH
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1006 AM EDT THU APR 30 2015
CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN WITH FORCING ALOFT EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE REGION.
SEEING A MIX OF CLOUDS WITH POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWERS AS WELL.
TEMPS AS OF 14Z GENERALLY RANGED FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...MAINTAINING UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS
AND PRECIP. RAP DATA SHOWING VERY COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM...ON THE ORDER OF -27 TO -29C AT 500MB. PRESENCE OF
THE VERY COLD AIR WILL ENABLE CLOUDS TO EXPAND INTO COVERAGE INTO
THE AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS PROMOTE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION. AXIS OF 100-300 J/KG CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH LAYER
SETTING UP OVER SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...EXPECT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITHIN SOME OF THE
STRONGER CELLS. WILL INTRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF A TERRE HAUTE-INDY METRO-MUNCIE LINE. GRAUPEL AND OR
SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY WITH ANY STRONGER CELL AS
WET BULB ZERO LEVELS PROGGED AT 3500-4000FT FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON.
PRECIP WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE UPPER LOW TRACKS INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND INSTABILITY IS
LOST. BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS...BROUGHT IN WIND GUSTS TO 20-25MPH
FOR THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER
50S...POSSIBLY LOWER 60S OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT THU APR 30 2015
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE TEMPS.
GFS AND NAM BOTH AGREE THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL QUICKLY DEPART THIS
EVENING...AND ALONG WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND THE
MINIMAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO BEGIN WITH WILL DIMINISH TO NIL. GFS
AND NAM THEN ALLOW THE STRONG RIDGE THAT IS IN PLACE OVER THE
WESTERN PLAINS TO BUILD EAST ACROSS INDIANA AND THE GREAT LAKES.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD MOSTLY CLEAR
NIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS.
AS THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS TONIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS
TONIGHT AS THE DOME OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
DEPARTS. GIVEN THIS WILL TREND TONIGHTS LOWS TOWARD THE WARMER
MAVMOS. SUBTLE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN CONTINUES ON FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS 850MB TEMPS REACH NEAR 7C BY SAT. WILL TREND HIGHS
WITH A SLOWLY GRADUAL WARMING TREND. A MAVMOS/METMOS BLEND SHOULD
WORK FINE THERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT THU APR 30 2015
A WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD AS A WARM FRONT ENTERS THE LOWER MIDWEST.
HOWEVER...WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT LIFTING MECHANISMS AND RIDGING
ALOFT...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LOW. MOST
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. CHANCES WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY NIGHT THOUGH AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. AS THIS FRONT STALLS OUT AND EVENTUALLY
PUSHES BACK NORTH IN THE FORM OF A WARM FRONT LATE IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...LOW PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TRENDED ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. HIGHS
WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 301800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL
CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 010000Z
AS A VORTICITY LOBE DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. POTENTIAL
FOR ANY DIRECT IMPACTS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.
OTHERWISE...DIURNAL CLOUD BASES AROUND 040 WITH LAYERED CLOUDS ABOVE
EXPECTED TO THIN OUT TOWARDS/AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND
PASSAGE OF VORTICITY LOBE.
OCCASIONAL SURFACE WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS FROM 340-010 DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA/RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JAS
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
309 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2015
.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2015
Unseasonably cold mid-level low continues to move southward and was
centered over west-central IN at mid-afternoon. The low will
propagate over central and eastern KY this evening. As expected,
cold mid-level temperatures combined with modest low-level heating
have steepened lapse rates and facilitated development of scattered
to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms. A few cells have
produced pea size hail, brief wind gusts up to 40 mph, and some
lightning strikes.
Currently, radar data shows better precipitation coverage over
east-central KY including the Lexington area, and approaching the
eastern half of south-central IN from the north. Latest HRRR model
reflectivity forecast captures these areas reasonably well. It
maintains the southern IN cells, moving them south-southeast into
north-central and east-central KY late this afternoon. Other pop up
cells could occur elsewhere as well. Thus, will maintain highest
coverage/percentage of precipitation east of Interstate 65,
especially over east-central KY.
Rainfall intensity and coverage will slowly diminish this evening
with loss of daytime heating and as the upper low moves eastward.
Overnight, dry weather is expected with some clouds remaining over
the east, with fewer clouds over western parts of our forecast area.
There could be patchy fog near daybreak over parts of east-central
KY. It will be chilly, with lows Friday morning in the upper 30s and
lower 40s in many areas.
On Friday, the mid-level low will continue pulling eastward away
from our area. There could be some residual clouds over the east
half of our forecast area, but dry weather is expected. Temperatures
will begin a warming trend that will last through the weekend and
into next week. Expect highs Friday afternoon in the mid 60s to
lower 70s.
.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2015
Saturday - Saturday Night...
NW flow aloft will dominate the pattern, meanwhile surface high
pressure will be in place. Models have been consistent now for the
past several runs in depicting a shortwave embedded in the flow
traversing the area on Saturday. Will continue to keep the forecast
dry as this feature looks starved of moisture. Instead, will depict
an increase in cloud cover through the afternoon, although still
expect partly sunny skies. With plenty of peaks at the sun, will
call for temps mostly in the mid 70s. A few spots that see more
clouds may stay in the low 70s.
Dry conditions will continue into Saturday night where weak and
progressive upper ridging slides over the Ohio River Valley.
Meanwhile, surface high pressure remains at the surface. Given good
radiational cooling conditions, lows will still slide into the upper
40s and low 50s.
Sunday - Thursday...
Low amplitude NW flow aloft will transition to upper ridging over
the CWA to end the weekend and start the new work week. This ridge
is then expected to hold over the area through the end of the week.
A frontal boundary that looks to stall nearly parallel to the upper
flow should stay well to the north across the southern Great Lakes.
This pattern will result in continued dry conditions and
temperatures rising above normal for this time of year. Can`t rule
out an extremely isolated shower or t-storm at some point through
the week, however lack of a trigger and mid level subsidence
inversion is enough to keep a dry forecast going.
Have nudged temperatures up around MEX guidance given the warmer
pattern, and wouldn`t be surprised if they end up a couple of
degrees warmer. This will result in forecast temperatures more
solidly in the low and mid 80s Tue-Thur. Will go with upper 70s to
around 80 for Sunday, and around 80 for Monday. Lows each night
should mostly be in the 50s, with the usual warm spots likely around
60.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 115 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2015
Cold mid-level closed low will move south-southeast into southern IN
this afternoon and eastern KY this evening. This system combined
with low-level heating will result in scattered to numerous showers
and embedded thunderstorms this afternoon, before weakening and
moving east of the TAF area this evening. Small hail is likely with
thunderstorms. Greatest coverage should be east-central KY,
including around LEX. Overall, clouds and visibilities should remain
VFR, but could dip into MVFR briefly in heavier showers. Overnight
and Friday, conditions will be more tranquil with VFR conditions,
although there could be patchy MVFR fog at LEX around daybreak.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term........TWF
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........TWF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
620 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE EACH
DAY...REACHING THE UPPER 60S ON FRIDAY AND THE LOWER 70S ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. THE PATTERN LOOKS TO TURN WET LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE
REGION. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHORT TERM FORECAST ISSUES WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER. THERE MAY BE A STRAY SHOWER THIS
EVENING TOWARD BATTLE CREEK AND JACKSON...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECTING
DRY WEATHER FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH WILL BE
A CHANGE FROM WHERE WE HAVE BEEN OF LATE. OVERALL SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015
ITS CONTINUING TO LOOK RATHER ACTIVE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEING THE MAIN FOCUS.
THE INITIAL ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS LOOKING TO HOLD OFF RATHER
LATE IN THE WEEKEND. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE LAST FEW
DAYS...THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THEIR DISAGREEMENTS WITH TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL ULTIMATELY BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR WET CONDITIONS. THE ECMWF IS QUITE PERSISTENT ON
PUSHING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE HUDSON BAY. A WEAKER
DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS AND ROTATES AROUND THE MAIN LOW AND ATTEMPTS TO
PUSH COOLER AIR SOUTHWARD. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST WITH
THIS MAIN LOW AND KEEPS THE BOUNDARY FURTHER NORTH. THIS WOULD PLAY
A LARGE ROLE IN NOT ONLY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH THE AREA BUT
ALSO THE TEMPERATURE SPREAD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE PERSISTENCE OF
THE ECMWF WOULD NORMALLY BE COMFORTING...BUT RECENT EVENTS HAVE
ACTUALLY BEEN WON OUT BY THE GFS. THEREFORE...THE CONFIDENCE ON THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PLACEMENT IS STILL RATHER LOW.
WHILE THE ECMWF IS LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...THE
GFS HAS A TROUGH OVER THE WEST...WHICH WOULD EXPLAIN THE REASONING
FOR THE NORTHWARD EXTEND OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015
THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW ARE DEPARTING AS I WRITE
THIS DISCUSSION. I WOULD EXPECT THE TAF SITES OF MKG...GRR AND AZO
(CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN) WILL BE CLEAR BY 01Z-02Z BUT THE MORE
EASTERN TAF SITES IT MAY TAKE UNTIL 06Z FOR ALL OF THE MID CLOUDS
TO DEPART AS UPPER LOW SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA. ONCE THAT HAPPENS THROUGH SKIES SHOULD BE TOTALLY CLEAR
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015
MAINTAINED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...BUT
IT LOOKS LIKE IT IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL UP NORTH TOWARDS BIG AND
LITTLE SABLE POINTS. THAT SAID...BIG SABLE OB IS SHOWING GUSTS OF
21-24 KNOTS THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW A CORE OF
WIND WORKING DOWN THE SHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 KNOTS. WAVES SHOULD COME UP INTO THE 3-5 FOOT RANGE FOR A
FEW HOURS AS THE WIND SHIFTS SOUTH. EXPECTING PORT SHELDON TO COME
UP OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS.
WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD BE FAIRLY TAME AFTER THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015
RIVERS ARE RUNNING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL. NO ISSUES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WE ARE MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR OVER AN
INCH OF RAINFALL DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS
CURRENTLY NOT HIGH ON WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE. WITH
THE GREEN-UP UNDERWAY... PLANTS AND SOIL ARE ABLE TO ABSORB A
GREATER AMOUNT OF RAIN THAN EARLIER IN THE SPRING. THIS WILL BUFFER
RIVER RESPONSE TO SOME EXTENT.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ847>849.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>846.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...DUKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
329 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE EACH
DAY...REACHING THE UPPER 60S ON FRIDAY AND THE LOWER 70S ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. THE PATTERN LOOKS TO TURN WET LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE
REGION. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHORT TERM FORECAST ISSUES WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER. THERE MAY BE A STRAY SHOWER THIS
EVENING TOWARD BATTLE CREEK AND JACKSON...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECTING
DRY WEATHER FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH WILL BE
A CHANGE FROM WHERE WE HAVE BEEN OF LATE. OVERALL SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015
ITS CONTINUING TO LOOK RATHER ACTIVE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEING THE MAIN FOCUS.
THE INITIAL ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS LOOKING TO HOLD OFF RATHER
LATE IN THE WEEKEND. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE LAST FEW
DAYS...THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THEIR DISAGREEMENTS WITH TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL ULTIMATELY BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR WET CONDITIONS. THE ECMWF IS QUITE PERSISTENT ON
PUSHING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE HUDSON BAY. A WEAKER
DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS AND ROTATES AROUND THE MAIN LOW AND ATTEMPTS TO
PUSH COOLER AIR SOUTHWARD. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST WITH
THIS MAIN LOW AND KEEPS THE BOUNDARY FURTHER NORTH. THIS WOULD PLAY
A LARGE ROLE IN NOT ONLY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH THE AREA BUT
ALSO THE TEMPERATURE SPREAD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE PERSISTENCE OF
THE ECMWF WOULD NORMALLY BE COMFORTING...BUT RECENT EVENTS HAVE
ACTUALLY BEEN WON OUT BY THE GFS. THEREFORE...THE CONFIDENCE ON THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PLACEMENT IS STILL RATHER LOW.
WHILE THE ECMWF IS LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...THE
GFS HAS A TROUGH OVER THE WEST...WHICH WOULD EXPLAIN THE REASONING
FOR THE NORTHWARD EXTEND OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015
THE PATTERN HAS SHIFTED IN MORE OF AN OPTIMISTIC DIRECTION. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA. THERE
IS SOME QUESTION TO THE EXTENT AND DURATION OF CLOUD COVER AT OUR
SOUTHEASTERN SITES. A BROKEN DECK IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE THROUGH
THESE LOCATIONS THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BUT THE MOISTURE FOR THIS
DECK IS THIN AND EVACUATES RATHER QUICKLY THROUGH LATE EVENING.
WINDS WERE ANOTHER AREA I TRENDED DOWN ON AS IT SEEMS WE ARE
UNDER-PERFORMING FROM PREVIOUS THOUGHTS. BY LATE EVENING
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS WINDS DIE DOWN AND ANY
CLOUD COVER AROUND KLAN AND KJXN ERODES.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015
MAINTAINED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...BUT
IT LOOKS LIKE IT IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL UP NORTH TOWARDS BIG AND
LITTLE SABLE POINTS. THAT SAID...BIG SABLE OB IS SHOWING GUSTS OF
21-24 KNOTS THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW A CORE OF
WIND WORKING DOWN THE SHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 KNOTS. WAVES SHOULD COME UP INTO THE 3-5 FOOT RANGE FOR A
FEW HOURS AS THE WIND SHIFTS SOUTH. EXPECTING PORT SHELDON TO COME
UP OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS.
WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD BE FAIRLY TAME AFTER THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015
RIVERS ARE RUNNING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL. NO ISSUES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WE ARE MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR OVER AN
INCH OF RAINFALL DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS
CURRENTLY NOT HIGH ON WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE. WITH
THE GREEN-UP UNDERWAY... PLANTS AND SOIL ARE ABLE TO ABSORB A
GREATER AMOUNT OF RAIN THAN EARLIER IN THE SPRING. THIS WILL BUFFER
RIVER RESPONSE TO SOME EXTENT.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ847>849.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>846.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...JAM
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...DUKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
137 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015
.AVIATION...
A DEFORMATION FORCED RAIN BAND OVER THE DETROIT TAF SITES IS
PIVOTING OVER HEAD WHICH WILL DELAY ITS EXIT SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON. ONE ADDITIONAL BAND OF RAIN IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO WHICH WILL GET PULLED INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER MI THIS
EVENING BEFORE ALSO DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE AREA. THESE
FEATURES ARE LEADING TO VARIABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS
SUBSIDENCE SINKING INTO NORTHERN AND MID MICHIGAN ERODE THE CLOUD
FIELD OVER THOSE AREAS. THE TREND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOR
SUBSIDENCE TO CONTINUE SOUTHWARD LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
SITES OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD OUTSIDE OF THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED MVFR RAIN BANDS.
FOR DTW...LIGHT MVFR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING RIGHT AROUND 18Z
SO WILL BE LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST. A SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS LOOKS
TO TARGET THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING BETWEEN ABOUT 21-00Z.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH TIMING AS THE BAND IS JUST NOW COMING
TOGETHER SO WILL CONTINUE TO TEMPO IT IN. CIGS WILL GO VFR OVERNIGHT
AS SUBSIDENCE RESULTS IN ONLY CIRRUS DEBRIS.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* MEDIUM FOR CIGS BELOW 5KFT THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN THIS EVENING.
* HIGH FOR CIGS ABOVE 5KFT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 358 AM EDT THU APR 30 2015
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE TIGHT MIDLEVEL POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY AND ACCOMPANYING
MIDLEVEL COLD POOL CONTINUES TO DROP STRAIGHT SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. CONVERGENCE OF THE
MASS FIELD IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FORWARD EASTERN FLANK OF THIS COLD
POOL AND INCREASING EASTERLY SYSTEM RELATIVE FLOW HAS RESULTED IN
POSITIVE CONTRIBUTIONS OF BOTH TILTING AND MIDLEVEL STRETCHING
DEFORMATION. THE COMBINED FORCING HAS RESULTED IN A WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHGIAN FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. THE RECENT TREND OF THE RADAR OUTPUT HAS BEEN FOR A FOCUS OF
THE RAIN SHOWERS DOWN TO DETROIT AND THE RIVERS. RADAR ECHOES HAVE
BEEN HOLDING STEADY IN ADDITION TO BANDS OF CONTINUED CLOUDTOP
COOLING IN IR IMAGERY. ALTHOUGH RADAR ESTIMATES LIKELY CONTAIN SOME
BRIGHTBAND CONTAMINATION...SOME AREAS OVER WAYNE AND MONROE COUNTIES
WILL LIKELY REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GREATER THAN .5 INCH. AS A
RESULT...INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL THROUGH 12Z.
MODEL DATA SUPPORTS BOTH CENTERING AND CONTRACTING THE STRETCHING
DEFORMATION AXIS OVER EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AROUND
12Z...BEFORE SLOWLY PIVOTING TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...THE SOLUTION SPACE OF THE
NAM/RUC/ECWMF AND HRRR HAVE THE MOST TRUSTWORTHY OF OUTPUT WITH
REGARDS TO QPF PLACEMENT. THEREFORE...EXPECT A WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
OF RAIN SHOWERS TO HOLD FIRM THROUGH 14 OR 15Z...BEFORE SCATTERING
OUT. SOME HI RESOLUTION CONVECTION ALLOWING NWP ALONG WITH THE HRRR
IS ADVERTISING A SOLUTION FOR A RAIN SHOWER CHANCE ONCE AGAIN DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTING THAT RAIN ACTIVITY
OVER PORTIONS OF PENNSYLVANIA RESIDE WITHIN A MOISTURE AXIS THAT
WILL GET DRAWN NORTHWARD AND THEN ADVECTED WESTWARD TOWARND THE LAKE
MICHIGAN PV ANOMALY. THEREFORE...IT IS THIS ACTIVITY THAT COULD
BACKDOOR ACROSS THE DETROIT RIVER/LAKE ST CLAIR SOMETIME AFTER 20Z
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
BE STRUGGLING EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL ONLY ACCOUNT FOR THIS
WITH A CHANCE POP BETWEEN 16-00Z. WITH THE OPAQUE CLOUD...TRENDED
HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THE SOUTHERN
1/3RD OF THE CWA.
SUBSIDENCE WILL WRAP BACK INTO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN QUICKLY AFTER
00Z TONIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL TO SOUTH OF THE OHIO/MICHIGAN STATELINE. WILL ACTUALLY SEE
SOME MINOR WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT...KEEPING LOWS IN THE 40S
FOR MANY LOCATIONS (RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE).
LONG TERM...
WARMER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
CURRENT UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE EAST COAST AND BEYOND AND UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE AREA AS THE MAIN WESTERLIES REFOCUS
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN CANADA AND UPPER TROUGHING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS REPLACED BY MODEST ZONAL FLOW. WITH THE
STORM TRACK SO FAR NORTH INTO THE WEEKEND...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED INTO MUCH OF SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES BUILDING FROM THE MID
60S FRIDAY TO 70 OR BETTER FOR MOST LOCATIONS BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
WHILE MILD WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...THE CHANCE
OF RAIN...AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES...WILL INCREASE AS A SERIES OF
STRONG SHORTWAVE BUCKLE THE STRONG ZONAL FLOW OVER MID NOAM SLIGHTLY
AND ALLOWS THE MEAN FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ALONG THE SWATH OF
WESTERLIES TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WHERE IT WILL
REMAIN UNTIL MIDWEEK. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WESTERN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRITISH COLUMBIA PICK
UP AN UPPER LOW MEANDERING OVER CALIFORNIA/FOUR CORNERS. DOWNSTREAM
OF THIS FEATURE...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND
MAINTAIN MILD WEATHER GENERALLY ABOVE AVERAGE BY SEVERAL DEGREES.
DURING THIS TIME...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BECOME MORE
SCATTERED AS THE FOCUS OF MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION SHIFTS BACK
NORTH FOR AT LEAST A DAY OR TWO LATE NEXT WEEK. WITH THE TRANSITION
TO A MORE MODERATE PATTERN...THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF FROST
OVER FREEZING TEMPERATURES FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO MID/LATE NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS
FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE LOW PIVOTS EAST TO SOUTHEAST
TO THE MID ATLANTIC SHORELINE. WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
LIGHT...10 TO 15 KNOT FLOW LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS WILL PRODUCE SOME ENHANCED WAVE DEVELOPMENT. THAT
SAID...WAVES SHOULD STILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERION FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SMALL AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
THROUGH THE AREA. LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THIS HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....DRK
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....DG
MARINE.......DG
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
305 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY UP THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
FINALLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING FRIDAY. THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE
DRY WEATHER AND RETURNING SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT.../
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS
SHOULD SLOW TONIGHT AS A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVES
SOUTHWARD FROM INDIANA INTO NORTH CAROLINA. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINICITY IS VERY WEAK...A FAVORABLY ORIENTED JET STREAK
OFFSHORE PLUS INCOMING VORTICITY WITH THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD LEAD TO
SLOWLY FALLING PRESSURES OFFSHORE.
AWAY FROM EXTREME EASTERN NC (INCLUDING WILMINGTON) THERE HAS BEEN
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY. TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 70S PLUS
RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT HAVE HELPED GENERATE SURFACE-BASED
CAPE AS LARGE AS 500 J/KG ALONG AND WEST OF I-95. SO FAR THIS HAS
RESULTED IN AN EXPANSIVE CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS WESTERN NC PLUS A
SMATTERING OF SHOWERS. AS 800-600 MB TEMPERATURES FALL FURTHER THIS
EVENING AND THE FIRST OF SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST...THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WILL EXPAND ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PEE DEE REGION. I HAVE
DECIDED NOT TO INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS IT APPEARS AN
INVERSION BETWEEN 500-600 MB SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO CAP
OFF UPDRAFTS BEFORE THEY BECOME COLD ENOUGH ALOFT. 12Z MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF A LITTLE COMPARED TO THEIR 00Z/06Z COUNTERPARTS WITH THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION...AND THIS TREND IS ECHOED BY THE
LAST FEW HRRR RUNS AS WELL.
BY LATE TONIGHT THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL WOBBLE INTO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. NEAR AND NORTH OF THE LOW IS WHERE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT. OUR FORECAST AREA
SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE INSTABILITY...SO ASIDE FROM
MAINTAINING 30-40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS LUMBERTON-ELIZABETHTOWN-BURGAW
I HAVE CUT POPS TO 10-20 POPS OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER 50S EXCEPT MID 50S AT THE BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY... A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL CUT BY TO OUR NORTH
ON FRIDAY. EVEN SO WE SHOULD SEE VERY STRONG PVA AND HEIGHT FALLS
LOCALLY AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS SEEM LIKELY OVER NORTHERN ZONES.
STILL TOUGH TO RULE OUT THUNDER WITH UPWARDS OF 600J/KG OF CAPE
DEVELOPING. SOME OF THIS INSTABILITY MAY GO SUFFICIENTLY INTO THE
HAIL GROWTH LAYER FOR SOME PEA SIZED HAIL TO REACH THE GROUND
UNDERNEATH THE DEEPER CONVECTIVE CELLS. CLOUD COVER WILL MEANWHILE
BRING ONE LAST DAY OF CONSIDERABLY COOL TEMPS WITH HIGHS STUCK IN
THE 60S. DRY AIR MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS
HOWEVER ONE TRAILING VORT AND WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ON SATURDAY AND
SOME GUIDANCE HINTING AT PRECIP OVER CAPE FEAR/COASTAL NC ZONES.
FEEL IF ANYTHING AT ALL WILL BE JUST NON-MEASURABLE AND HAVE KEPT
THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME. THE DECREASED CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW
FOR A NICE BUMP IN TEMPERATURES COME SATURDAY BUT THE NORTHERLY FLOW
COMPONENT THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WILL STILL KEEP US A TAD BELOW CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY DURING THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO. AS FAR AS THE TROPICAL
WAVE/LOW COMBO EMERGING FROM THE BAHAMAS NEXT WEEK GOES THE LATEST
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS FALLEN OUT OF FAVOR WITH THIS SCENARIOS.
NEARLY ALL OF THE GUIDANCE (INCLUDING THE ENSEMBLES) NOW SHOW A
SHEARED OUT SURFACE WAVE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST...REMAINING WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE COAST. LATER IN THE PERIOD CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SEA BREEZE SHOWER AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AND DOES NOT WARRANT INCLUSION OF POP
GREATER THAN 15 AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR LATER
TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS LOW
CLOUDS...AREAS OF FOG...AND PERIODS OF RAIN MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA.
VFR PREVAILS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AS SEEN FROM LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...EXPECT RAINFALL TO
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO
MVFR/IFR AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG
ADVECT ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT WINDS TO BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AT ALL
SITES THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE
AREA...INCREASING TO AOB 10 KTS...AND POTENTIALLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER
ALONG THE COAST. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...RAIN WILL TAPER OFF BUT
ANTICIPATE A RETURN OF -RA/SHRA THURSDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A CONTINUING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM
THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED SOUTH OF HATTERAS THIS AFTERNOON
BUT SHOULD SLOW TONIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE A ZONE OF
WEAKENED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT...WHILE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA THE GRADIENT
SHOULD GRADUALLY TIGHTEN WITH INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED. BY
DAYBREAK WINDS JUST EAST OF WINYAH BAY/GEORGETOWN COULD REACH 15-20
KT. THE VARIOUS COMPUTER MODELS HAVE DIFFERING POSITIONS OF WHERE
THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN THESE STRONGER WEST WINDS AND LIGHTER NORTH
WINDS CLOSER TO THE LOW WILL SET UP...AND I HAVE FOLLOWED THE 12Z
GFS AS A GUIDE TONIGHT.
SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 2-3 FEET INSIDE 20 MILES OF SHORE...TO 4
FEET OUT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY. SEAS MAY SUBSIDE A BIT THIS
EVENING BUT SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
CAPE FEAR...DUE TO THE INCREASING WIND SPEEDS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF CAPE HATTERAS WILL BE SLOW TO
MOVE ON FRIDAY, ENERGIZED IN PART BY A STRONG LOW IN THE MID LEVELS.
THIS FEATURE WILL STRENGTHEN VERTICAL MIXING MORE THAN THE ACTUAL
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT, POSSIBLY ENOUGH FOR SOME ADVISORY-WORTHY
25KT WINDS OVER MAINLY JUST OUR NORTHERNMOST ZONE-MAINLY FRIDAY
NIGHT. ALL MODELS ARE NOT CONVINCED OF THIS AND THERE IS STILL A BIT
OF TIME TO IRON OUT THE UNCERTAINTY SO ONE WILL NOT BE RAISED AT
THIS TIME. THE LOW WILL BE GRADUALLY PULLING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST
ON SATURDAY. WINDS LOCALLY WILL REMAIN N TO NW AND SLOWLY SUBSIDE.
THERE MAY EVEN BE A BIT OF BACKSWELL FROM THE OFFSHORE STORM AS IT
GROWS A BIT LARGER IN SIZE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFF THE COAST SUN MORNING
WILL SETUP NEAR BERMUDA SUN EVENING AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ON SUN...WITH SEA BREEZE
DOMINATING NEAR SHORE FLOW...WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH MON AND
TUE. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 10
KT OR LESS. DAILY SEA BREEZE WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT BUMP IN SPEEDS
NEAR SHORE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS AROUND 2 FT WILL BE MAINTAINED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
438 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL BE SLOW TO CHANGE AND
WILL FAVOR MOSTLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 425 PM...THE FIRST REAL BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LOW/COLD POOL AND NW FLOW IS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NC MTNS ATTM.
IT/S NOT ABUNDANTLY CLEAR HOW THIS ACTIVITY WILL RESPOND TO THE
ONGOING DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...SO WHILE POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS...THEY HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED
IN THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE. THE PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HAS BEEN TO TEMPER THE THUNDER
MENTION...AS COVERAGE OF DEEPER CONVECTION HAS BEEN ISOLATED AT
BEST THUS FAR...AND IS UNLIKELY TO CHANGE BASED UPON THE RATHER
SHALLOW NATURE OF BUOYANCY PROFILES. WE WILL GENERALLY MENTION
SCATTERED TS ACROSS THE MTNS...AND ISOLATED TO THE EAST. HAVING SAID
THAT...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE QUITE A BIT OF SMALL HAIL THIS
AFTERNOON...AS FREEZING LEVELS ARE BELOW 10 KFT...AND WILL ONLY FALL
MORE AS THE UPPER LOW DRAWS NEARER. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO
LIKELY BE SEEN IN LIGHT OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES GREATER THEN 9 C/KM
AND SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF AROUND 30 DEGREES.
AS OF 225 PM EDT THU...A CLOSED 500 MB LOW SPINNING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...REGIONAL RADAR COVERAGE HAS INCREASED FROM SE KY TO THE SRN
APPALACHIANS. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS INDICATE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...IMPACTING LOCATIONS FARTHER S WITH TIME AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 DEG
C/KM OR BETTER WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA WITH THE UPPER COLD
POCKET...ESPECIALLY THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION...
FREEZING LEVELS AT OR BELOW 8 KFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SMALL HAIL
POTENTIAL WITH ANY BETTER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. SHEAR COULD BE A BIT
BETTER IN SRN SECTIONS THIS EVENING...BUT THE WIND DOES NOT APPEAR
TO POSE MUCH THREAT GIVEN THE LIMITED DCAPE AND SHALLOW TOPS. THE
HWO MENTION ADVERTISING SMALL HAIL WITH ANY THUNDER WILL BE
MAINTAINED.
THE COLD CORE LOW WILL PASS OVERHEAD TONIGHT...WITH SOME MEASURE OF
NW FLOW MOISTURE PERSISTING ALONG THE SPINE OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS
INTO FRI MORNING. CONTINUED MTN SHOWERS FROM STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERN. ALTHOUGH 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD STAY JUST ABOVE
FREEZING...ANY BETTER SHOWER RATES COULD BRING SNOW LEVELS DOWN INTO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY SNOW ACCUMS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND CONFINED TO
THE RIDGE TOPS...BUT FLURRIES/RIME/GRAUPEL UNDER ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT DOWN INTO THE MTN VALLEYS. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT
ISOLD ADVECTIVE FREEZE ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS OVERNIGHT...BUT NO
WARNING PRODUCT SHOULD BE NEEDED.
THE CLOSED H5 LOW SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRI MORNING...WITH
DEEP LAYER NRLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE IN
THE NRLY FLOW WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF WRN
NC FRI. FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP THE SHOWER POTENTIAL
GOING THROUGH FRI. WILL FEATURE MAXES A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
GIVEN THE COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS SKY COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THU...CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FURTHER OUT OVER THE
ATLANTIC FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...AND AS HEIGHTS RISE IN ITS WAKE DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL IN OVER OUR AREA. DIURNAL ACTIVITY FRI AFTN
DOES NOT APPEAR TO STAND MUCH CHANCE OF LASTING PAST 00Z SAT...SO A
DRY FCST FOR THE FRI NIGHT PERIOD LOOKS FINE. MIN/MAX TEMPS SATURDAY
WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE HIGH
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH TO STIFLE ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION SATURDAY EVEN
WITH A WEAK UPPER WAVE PASSING OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...BY SUNDAY THE HIGH
WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS
A BIT WEAKER AND LAPSE RATES BENEATH IT A BIT BETTER. WE ALSO LOOK TO
WARM A LITTLE MORE...MAXES RETURNING TO ABOUT CLIMO. LOW POPS ARE
SUGGESTED BY THE NAM/GFS INVOF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE RELATIVELY
SHALLOW CONVECTION COULD FIRE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM THU...HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER THE EAST COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL SHIFT EWD INTO A BERMUDA HIGH CONFIGURATION OVER THE
SUBSEQUENT FEW DAYS. UPPER HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES GRADUALLY INCREASE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS A RESULT...SO WE CAN EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDWEEK. GULF FLOW WILL ALLOW AN UPWARD TREND IN
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY THRU THE PERIOD...SUGGESTING INCREASING POPS
EACH DAY. HOWEVER THEY REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO MITIGATE SEVERE THREAT.
OPERATIONAL GFS/EC AS WELL AS MOST GEFS MEMBERS INDICATE AN INVERTED
TROUGH DEVELOPING ON THE SRN BOUNDARY OF THE BERMUDA HIGH BY LATE
TUE...WHICH DRIFTS NWD AND CLOSES OFF BY EARLY THU. THERE IS SOME
SPREAD ON HOW FAR WEST THIS FEATURE TRACKS...THE EC KEEPING IT NEAR
THE ATLANTIC COAST VICE THE GFS AND GEFS CONSENSUS TAKING IT E OF THE
BAHAMAS. IT APPEARS UNLIKELY TO BRING ANY PRECIP TO OUR AREA BASED ON
THE CURRENT PROGS.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW THIS
EVENING. ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS HAVE BROKEN OUT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...BUT WITH NO THUNDER REPORTED ACROSS THE WRN CAROLINAS SO
FAR. THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD TSRA AMONG THE SCT TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS...BUT TEMPO SHRA WILL BE PREFERRED AT THE AIRFIELD.
EXPECT WNW FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTN...WITH WINDS TURNING
MORE NW THEN N TONIGHT WITH A COLD FROPA. STRATOCUMULUS VFR CIGS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD IN MOIST
NRLY FLOW. ALTHOUGH THUNDER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THE AIRFIELD...ANY
TSRA WOULD LIKELY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL.
ELSEWHERE...SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE WILL INCREASE MAINLY FROM KAVL TO
KHKY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED SHRA COVERAGE
EVENTUALLY EXPANDING SWD TOWARD THE UPSTATE TAF SITES. ANY TSRA THAT
FORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL GIVEN THE LOW
FREEZING LEVELS. VCSH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
KAVL TO POSSIBLY KHKY WITH THE PASSING UPPER COLD POOL AND MOIST
NRLY FLOW. EXPECT MAINLY NW WINDS...EXCEPT BRIEFLY WSW AT KGMU AND
KGSP THIS AFTN IN WEAK LEE TROUGHING. LOW END GUSTS ARE LIKELY AT
KAVL. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NRLY TONIGHT THROUGH FRI AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES EAST. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT...ALTHOUGH MVFR
CIGS COULD APPROACH KAVL IN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY IN MOIST NW FLOW
OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RETURN FLOW MOISTURE WILL ONLY SLOWLY
REDEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
20-02Z 02-08Z 08-14Z 14-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 77% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...HG/JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...HG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
236 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL BE SLOW TO CHANGE AND
WILL FAVOR MOSTLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM EDT THU...A CLOSED 500 MB LOW SPINNING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...REGIONAL RADAR COVERAGE HAS INCREASED FROM SE KY TO THE SRN
APPALACHIANS. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS INDICATE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...IMPACTING LOCATIONS FARTHER S WITH TIME AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 DEG
C/KM OR BETTER WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA WITH THE UPPER COLD
POCKET...ESPECIALLY THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION...
FREEZING LEVELS AT OR BELOW 8 KFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SMAIL HAIL
POTENTIAL WITH ANY BETTER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. SHEAR COULD BE A BIT
BETTER IN SRN SECTIONS THIS EVENING...BUT THE WIND DOES NOT APPEAR
TO POSE MUCH THREAT GIVEN THE LIMITED DCAPE AND SHALLOW TOPS. THE
HWO MENTION ADVERTISING SMALL HAIL WITH ANY THUNDER WILL BE
MAINTAINED.
THE COLD CORE LOW WILL PASS OVERHEAD TONIGHT...WITH SOME MEASURE OF
NW FLOW MOISTURE PERSISTING ALONG THE SPINE OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS
INTO FRI MORNING. CONTINUED MTN SHOWERS FROM STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERN. ALTHOUGH 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD STAY JUST ABOVE
FREEZING...ANY BETTER SHOWER RATES COULD BRING SNOW LEVELS DOWN INTO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY SNOW ACCUMS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND CONFINED TO
THE RIDGE TOPS...BUT FLURRIES/RIME/GRAUPEL UNDER ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT DOWN INTO THE MTN VALLEYS. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT
ISOLD ADVECTIVE FREEZE ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS OVERNIGHT...BUT NO
WARNING PRODUCT SHOULD BE NEEDED.
THE CLOSED H5 LOW SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRI MORNING...WITH
DEEP LAYER NRLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE IN
THE NRLY FLOW WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF WRN
NC FRI. FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP THE SHOWER POTENTIAL
GOING THROUGH FRI. WILL FEATURE MAXES A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
GIVEN THE COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS SKY COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THU...CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FURTHER OUT OVER THE
ATLANTIC FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...AND AS HEIGHTS RISE IN ITS WAKE DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL IN OVER OUR AREA. DIURNAL ACTIVITY FRI AFTN
DOES NOT APPEAR TO STAND MUCH CHANCE OF LASTING PAST 00Z SAT...SO A
DRY FCST FOR THE FRI NIGHT PERIOD LOOKS FINE. MIN/MAX TEMPS SATURDAY
WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE HIGH
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH TO STIFLE ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION SATURDAY EVEN
WITH A WEAK UPPER WAVE PASSING OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...BY SUNDAY THE HIGH
WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS
A BIT WEAKER AND LAPSE RATES BENEATH IT A BIT BETTER. WE ALSO LOOK TO
WARM A LITTLE MORE...MAXES RETURNING TO ABOUT CLIMO. LOW POPS ARE
SUGGESTED BY THE NAM/GFS INVOF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE RELATIVELY
SHALLOW CONVECTION COULD FIRE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM THU...HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER THE EAST COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL SHIFT EWD INTO A BERMUDA HIGH CONFIGURATION OVER THE
SUBSEQUENT FEW DAYS. UPPER HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES GRADUALLY INCREASE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS A RESULT...SO WE CAN EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDWEEK. GULF FLOW WILL ALLOW AN UPWARD TREND IN
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY THRU THE PERIOD...SUGGESTING INCREASING POPS
EACH DAY. HOWEVER THEY REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO MITIGATE SEVERE THREAT.
OPERATIONAL GFS/EC AS WELL AS MOST GEFS MEMBERS INDICATE AN INVERTED
TROUGH DEVELOPING ON THE SRN BOUNDARY OF THE BERMUDA HIGH BY LATE
TUE...WHICH DRIFTS NWD AND CLOSES OFF BY EARLY THU. THERE IS SOME
SPREAD ON HOW FAR WEST THIS FEATURE TRACKS...THE EC KEEPING IT NEAR
THE ATLANTIC COAST VICE THE GFS AND GEFS CONSENSUS TAKING IT E OF THE
BAHAMAS. IT APPEARS UNLIKELY TO BRING ANY PRECIP TO OUR AREA BASED ON
THE CURRENT PROGS.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW THIS
EVENING. ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS HAVE BROKEN OUT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...BUT WITH NO THUNDER REPORTED ACROSS THE WRN CAROLINAS SO
FAR. THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD TSRA AMONG THE SCT TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS...BUT TEMPO SHRA WILL BE PREFERRED AT THE AIRFIELD.
EXPECT WNW FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTN...WITH WINDS TURNING
MORE NW THEN N TONIGHT WITH A COLD FROPA. STRATOCUMULUS VFR CIGS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD IN MOIST
NRLY FLOW. ALTHOUGH THUNDER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THE AIRFIELD...ANY
TSRA WOULD LIKELY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL.
ELSEWHERE...SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE WILL INCREASE MAINLY FROM KAVL TO
KHKY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED SHRA COVERAGE
EVENTUALLY EXPANDING SWD TOWARD THE UPSTATE TAF SITES. ANY TSRA THAT
FORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL GIVEN THE LOW
FREEZING LEVELS. VCSH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
KAVL TO POSSIBLY KHKY WITH THE PASSING UPPER COLD POOL AND MOIST
NRLY FLOW. EXPECT MAINLY NW WINDS...EXCEPT BRIEFLY WSW AT KGMU AND
KGSP THIS AFTN IN WEAK LEE TROUGHING. LOW END GUSTS ARE LIKELY AT
KAVL. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NRLY TONIGHT THROUGH FRI AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES EAST. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT...ALTHOUGH MVFR
CIGS COULD APPROACH KAVL IN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY IN MOIST NW FLOW
OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RETURN FLOW MOISTURE WILL ONLY SLOWLY
REDEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 86% HIGH 95%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...HG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
203 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS OFFSHORE TODAY. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM...DRY AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY AND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL UNDERGO SLOW CHANGES
THROUGH NEXT WEEK...FAVORING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT THU...A CLOSED 500 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE FROM THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTN TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT.
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...REGIONAL RADAR COVERAGE IS INCREASING
ACROSS SE KY...SW VA...AND ERN TN. THE LATEST HRRR HAS THE FIRST
ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING EWD OFF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS
AFTN...WHILE A SECOND ROUND FORMS CIRCA 20Z OVER THE MTNS. THERE
COULD WELL BE THREE WAVES OF CONVECTION THROUGH EVENING...EACH A
LITTLE FARTHER S...AS A SFC COLD FRONT WORKS SE THROUGH THE
REGION. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 DEG C/KM OR BETTER
WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA WITH THE UPPER COLD POCKET...ESPECIALLY THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH FREEZING LEVELS AT
OR BELOW 8 KFT TO YIELD HAIL POTENTIAL WITH ANY BETTER CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS. SHEAR COULD BE A BIT BETTER IN SRN SECTIONS THIS
EVENING...BUT THE WIND DOES NOT APPEAR TO POSE MUCH THREAT WITH
LIMITED DCAPE AND SHALLOW TOPS. THE HWO MENTION ADVERTISING HAIL
WILL BE MAINTAINED.
THE COLD CORE LOW WILL PASS OVERHEAD TONIGHT...WITH SOME MEASURE OF
NW FLOW MOISTURE THEN PERSISTING ALONG THE SPINE OF THE SRN
APPALACHIANS INTO FRI MORNING. CONTINUED MTN SHOWERS FROM STEEP
LAPSE RATES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. ALTHOUGH 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD
STAY JUST ABOVE FREEZING...ANY BETTER SHOWER RATES COULD BRING SNOW
LEVELS DOWN INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY SNOW ACCUMS SHOULD BE LIGHT
AND CONFINED TO THE RIDGE TOPS...BUT FLURRIES/RIME/GRAUPEL UNDER ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT DOWN IN THE MTN VALLEYS. ALSO
CANNOT RULE OUT ADVECTIVE FREEZE ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS OVERNIGHT.
THE CLOSED H5 LOW SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRI MORNING...WITH
DEEP LAYER NRLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE IN
THE NRLY FLOW WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF WRN
NC FRI. FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP THE SHOWER POTENTIAL
GOING THROUGH FRI. WILL FEATURE MAXES A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
GIVEN THE COLD AIR STRATOCU POTENTIAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM THURSDAY...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE AXIS OF
A LONGWAVE TROF WILL RIPPLE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE TROF...COOL AND MOIST
H85 WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM A NORTH-NORTHWEST DIRECTION ACROSS THE
NC MTNS...WEAKENING DURING THE EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK
UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE NORTHWEST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS AND WEAK
INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW -SHRA ON FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...A
VORT MAX MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO RESULT IN ANOTHER AREA OF -SHRA
ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR DURING THE MORNING HOURS. USING A BLEND OF
PREFERRED TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE...I WILL FORECAST U50S ACROSS THE
MTNS WITH MID TO UPPER 60S EAST.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL STEADILY RISE
FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA. THE CENTER OF
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. I
WILL FORECAST DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BEGIN THE DAY NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WITHIN 3 TO 4
DEGREES OF NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT A WEAK MID
LEVEL REX BLOCK WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PEAKING ON TUESDAY. AT THE SFC...VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM DAY
TO DAY...THE CENTER OF A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE 2 TO 4
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...LIGHT WINDS...AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
CONDITIONS. EAST H85 WINDS SHOULD SUPPORT A GRADUAL RISE AND
HUMIDITY ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA. WEAK DIURNAL
INSTABILITY AND PERIODS OF UPSLOPE FLOW MAY RESULT IN LOW COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW THIS
AFTN AND EVENING. ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS HAVE BROKEN OUT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...BUT WITH NO THUNDER SO FAR. THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLD TSRA AMONG THE SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...BUT TEMPO SHRA WILL
BE PREFERRED AT THE AIRFIELD. EXPECT WNW FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE AFTN...WITH WINDS TURNING MORE NW THEN N TONIGHT WITH A COLD
FROPA. STRATOCUMULUS VFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD IN MOIST NRLY FLOW. ALTHOUGH THUNDER IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THE AIRFIELD...ANY TSRA WOULD LIKELY CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL.
ELSEWHERE...SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE WILL INCREASE MAINLY FROM KAVL TO
KHKY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED SHRA COVERAGE
EVENTUALLY EXPANDING SWD TOWARD THE UPSTATE TAF SITES. ANY TSRA THAT
FORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL GIVEN THE LOW
FREEZING LEVELS. VCSH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
KAVL TO POSSIBLY KHKY WITH THE PASSING UPPER COLD POOL AND MOIST
NRLY FLOW. EXPECT MAINLY NW WINDS...EXCEPT BRIEFLY WSW AT KGMU AND
KGSP THIS AFTN IN WEAK LEE TROUGHING. LOW END GUSTS ARE LIKELY AT
KAVL. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NRLY TONIGHT THROUGH FRI AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES EAST. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT...ALTHOUGH MVFR
CIGS COULD APPROACH KAVL IN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY IN MOIST NW FLOW
OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RETURN FLOW MOISTURE WILL ONLY SLOWLY
REDEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 86% HIGH 95%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...HG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1228 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1039 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015
STARTED RED FLAG EARLY AS TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY JUMPED INTO
THE 60S WITH RH VALUES DOWN IN THE 20S. WINDS HAVE PEAKED AT
KMBG/KABR AROUND 30MPH AS WELL.
FOCUS SHIFTS TO AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HRRR INDICATES HIGH/SFC
BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPING BETWEEN KMBG/KABR THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH BASES ABOVE 0C...SO POTENTIALLY A DRY MICROBURST
ENVIRONMENT. NAM SOUNDINGS ARE A TAD MORE HUMID...BUT CIGS WILL
LIKELY STILL BE ABOVE 7KFT AND HAVE TO OVERCOME A VERY DRY
SUBCLOUD LAYER FOR PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE SURFACE. AS FOR
TIMING...THE 12Z NAM IS STILL RATHER CONSISTENT...IN LINE WITH
FORECAST AND PREVIOUS NAM/GFS GUIDANCE. THE HRRR IS MUCH FARTHER
EAST...SO AT THIS POINT WILL KEEP CURRENT PROGRESSION OF POPS
ACROSS THE CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015
FIRST ITEM OF DISCUSSION WILL BE THE VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST RH VALUES ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S EAST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER. SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE SOME WIND GUSTS MEET OR EXCEED 25 MPH
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST SD. PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD ALREADY
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR FIRE ZONES 269 AND 271. BASED ON
CURRENT FORECAST RH AND WIND GUSTS...HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND RED
FLAG WARNING TO INCLUDE FIRE ZONES 272 AND 273 AS WELL. WIND
SPEEDS MAY BE A BIT MARGINAL...BUT SHOULD STILL BE AROUND OR JUST
OVER 25 MPH GUSTS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. MIXED LAYER WINDS ARE NOT
ALL TOO IMPRESSIVE...ONLY AROUND 20 KNOTS. BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH
MOMENTUM TO SEE HIGHER GUSTS.
WILL ALSO BE WATCHING A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALL HI RES MODELS ARE SHOWING SCT ACTIVITY
MOVING INTO CORSON AND DEWEY COUNTIES AFTER 21Z SO HAVE INCREASED
POPS AND WENT WITH COVERAGE WORDING INSTEAD OF UNCERTAINTY. HI RES
SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY ALSO SUGGESTING ACTIVITY HOLDS TOGETHER
ALONG THE FRONT IN SOME FORM OF A BROKEN LINE AS IT TRACKS EAST
ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE INCREASED POPS OVERNIGHT A BIT AS WELL AND
CONTINUED THE COVERAGE WORDING. ONLY MINIMAL INSTABILITY PRESENT
BUT JUST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSHOWERS AS WELL.
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT LOOKS TO CLEAR THE CWA BY 12Z
FRIDAY.
FRIDAY ITSELF LOOKING VERY PLEASANT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH SUNNY SKIES AND
TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS. WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY CONDITIONS
FRIDAY NIGHT. ON SATURDAY...MID LEVEL TEMPS WARM QUITE A BIT AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. GOOD MIXING DEVELOPS BY AFTERNOON WITH
IMPRESSIVE WARMING AT THE SFC. WIDESPREAD 80S ARE EXPECTED AND
ANTICIPATE SATURDAY TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SPRING THUS FAR.
WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE ARRIVAL OF A SFC TROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS. MOISTURE MAY
BE LIMITED SO WILL ONLY INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015
A WEAK FRONT/TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS ON SAT
NIGHT/SUNDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS. ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE WILL KEEP SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT RELATIVELY QUIET...THOUGH SUPERBLEND KEEPS
SOME POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA DUE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT MAY
BRING SHOWERS.
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT TUESDAY NIGHT AS A POTENT UPPER LOW
STARTS TO MOVE EAST. COUPLED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING ATMOSPHERICALLY STACKED LOW AND AN OPEN GULF
STARTING ON WED PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE GREATLY. BOTH THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS MID WEEK SYSTEM.
IF THIS PATTERN PERSISTS AND IT DOES NOT SHIFT SOUTH AS HAS BEEN
THE TREND...THIS LOW WILL BE ONE OF THE MORE WELL DEVELOPED
SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS THE REGION HAS SEEN ALL YEAR.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. LOOK FOR A LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO PUSH ACROSS THE CWA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL...BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN
ANY TAF SITES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ269-271>273.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...PARKIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
1226 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015
.DISCUSSION...MRX BACK UP AND RUNNING AFTER AN AWIPS2 UPGRADE.
WAITING FOR ATMOSPHERE TO HEAT UP JUST A BIT MORE AND CAUSE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. LATEST NAM
AND RAP SHOW THE GREATER COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS SW
VA AND NE TN...CLOSER TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
ADJUSTED A FEW SKY AND HOURLY GRIDS TO REFLECT THE WARMER TEMPS AT
NOON...DUE MOSTLY TO LESS SKY COVER. NUDGED MAX TEMP GRID UP ALSO
BUT ALLOWED FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS
CONVECTION POPS ACROSS THE REGION.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 74 45 70 49 / 30 20 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 70 45 65 49 / 60 30 10 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 70 45 67 48 / 60 30 10 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 68 42 64 45 / 60 60 30 10
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1211 PM MDT THU APR 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM MDT THU APR 30 2015
TODAYS FORECAST LOOKS TO BE RIGHT ON TRACK. SUNNY SKIES THIS
MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PARTICULARLY INTO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR A MIDLEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL
HANG UP NEAR THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. RELATIVELY COOL AND STABLE AIR WILL BE FOUND FARTHER
NORTH...MAKING CONVECTION LESS OF A CONCERN. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
CAPE VALUES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES AMONGST
MODELS WITH THE NAM SHOWING 1000-1500 J/KG CAPE. THIS APPEARS TO
BE A BIT TOO HIGH WHICH SEEMS TO BE COMMON IN THE NAM OUTPUT. THE
GFS AND RUC SEEM MORE REASONABLE AROUND 500 J/KG OR LESS THIS
AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS...NOT EXPECTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ANY CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS VERY LOW. GENERALLY LOOKING
FOR GARDEN VARIETY THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT THU APR 30 2015
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EAST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST OVER THE NW PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS RATHER QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. UPSLOPE
FLOW AND SOME INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR SCTD SHOWERS AND A FEW
TSTRMS TO DEVELOP OVER SE WY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY
PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. A NARROW BAND
OF DECENT CAPE PROGGED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SRN PANHANDLE AND
FAR SE WY WITH VALUES FROM ABOUT 500-1000J/KG SO A STRONGER STORM
OR TWO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. ACTIVITY SHOULD END LATER THIS
EVENING AS A SFC HIGH SETTLES DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS AND INSTABILITY
FALLS OFF. ZONAL UPPER FLOW THEN SETS UP OVER THE CWA FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SEVERAL RIPPLES IN THIS FLOW. SHOULD SEE
SOME CONVECTION FIRE MAINLY OVER THE SRN MTNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THEN GREATER COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS MILD
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT THU APR 30 2015
UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY IN THE LONG TERM AS A VERY SLOW
MOVING UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD STILL BE ONGOING SATURDAY EVENING ALONG
THE I-80 CORRIDOR FROM CHEYENNE TO RAWLINS. CONVECTION FORECAST TO
COME TO AN END THOUGH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.
GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A BOUNDARY LAYING ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE
SUNDAY AND THIS WILL BE THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON LOCATION OF THE CONVECTION. GFS
FOCUSING ON AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WHILE ECMWF
CONCENTRATING ON AREAS WEST. TENDING TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION
AND CONCENTRATED HIGHER POPS WEST.
WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING SHOULD
MOVE CONVECTION EAST INTO THE PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. BUT CONVECTION
BLOSSOMS AGAIN OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING MONDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER
PIECE OF ENERGY SPINS OFF A LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL GIVE US A FAVORABLE SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW THAT WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO THE CHEYENNE AREA MONDAY EVENING.
BY TUESDAY...UPPER LOW FORECAST TO BE MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN
COLORADO. A 60KT JET FINGER IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TO SEE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
SEVER THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. SOMETHING THAT WILL BECOME CLEARER AS
WE CLOSER TO THE EVENT.
LOW FORECAST TO MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO WEDNESDAY. SHOULD SEE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. GOOD
NEWS IS THAT BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE KEEPING WARM TEMPERATURES AT
700MBS...AROUND +6C...SO PRECIP WILL FALL AS LIQUID AND NOT AS
SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM MDT THU APR 30 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY/ERRATIC
WINDS AND BRIEF MVFR VSBYS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT THU APR 30 2015
A COOL FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE DISTRICTS TODAY BRINGING A
NORTHERLY WIND SWITCH AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTRMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. CONCERNS LOW OVERALL THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH NON-CRITICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS AND GREENING
FUELS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...RE