Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/29/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
335 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER CONDITIONS MIXED IN WITH BOUTS OF WET WEATHER PREVAIL INTO
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. A BRIEF LULL WEDNESDAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE AND WARMER CONDITIONS IS QUICKLY REPLACED BY A RETURN OF
COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. THE WEEKEND
LOOKS BETTER WITH SEASONABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
TILL THIS EVENING...
FOCUS UPON A RAIN-BAND PUSHING S OUT OF MAINE ALONG A BACK-DOOR
COLD FRONT. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HRRR TRENDS AS WE GO INTO
EVENING. LIKELY TO HIGH CATEGORICAL POPS MAINLY E OF THE CT-RIVER
VALLEY. PUNCH OF COLDER AIR S/SW AS WINDS TURN BLUSTERY OUT OF THE
N/NE. MORE DETAILS IN THE /TONIGHT/ DISCUSSION BELOW.
TONIGHT...
BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH S THROUGH THE REGION. SHOWER
ACTIVITY CONTINUING ALONG AND AHEAD THOUGH STRUGGLING AGAINST DRIER
AIR ACROSS THE REGION /SEE 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM AROUND S NEW ENGLAND/.
NEVERTHELESS STRONG FORCING OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE PER MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE TO THE BACK-BUILDING NEARLY-STACKED LOW INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE SHOULD YIELD ACTIVITY. IN ITS WAKE EXPECT COLD-AIR ADVECTION
TO PROCEED WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS ALLOWING A STEEPENING BOUNDARY-
LAYER PROFILE /SEE 12Z UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS OVER NEWFOUNDLAND/ THAT
ALLOWS FOR THE MIX-DOWN OF FASTER MOMENTUM AND DRIER AIR TO THE
SURFACE.
SO WILL SEE DECENT RAIN CHANCES THAT CONTINUE INTO MIDNIGHT. LIKELY
OR HIGHER POPS. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO THUNDER. NW-FLOW
BACKS OUT OF THE N/NE AND BECOMES BLUSTERY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH...STRONGEST ACROSS THE MASS E-SHORE ESPECIALLY
CAPE ANN / CAPE COD / ISLANDS. GUSTS IN THESE LOCATIONS COULD GET AS
HIGH AS 35 MPH IF CONDITIONS ARE JUST RIGHT. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS
WOULD SUGGEST POTENTIAL OUTCOMES. THE S PUSH OF A COLDER AIRMASS
DROPS TEMPERATURES TO LOWS AROUND THE LOW-40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...
CONDITIONS IMPROVE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. IN ITS WAKE EXPECT A WELL-
MIXED PROFILE WITH A CONTINUED COLD-POOL ALOFT ENHANCED BY ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND DAYTIME HEATING. ANTICIPATE BLUSTERY N-WINDS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20-25 MPH AND DRIER AIR WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING
DOWN TO 30-PERCENT. SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL CONCERNS...
BUT IN COLLABORATION WITH OTHER FORECAST OFFICES AND FIRE-WEATHER
STATE LIAISONS...FEEL THE THREAT IS MARGINAL AND WILL NOT BE
GOING WITH ANY HEADLINES.
OVERALL A DRY FORECAST AS BETTER FORCING OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE
STAYS TO THE E. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE ACROSS E NEW
ENGLAND ALONG THE W-PERIPHERY OF THE NEARLY-STACKED LOW CONTINUING
TO SPIN ACROSS THE WATERS SE OF CANADA. HIGHS INTO THE UPPER-50S
TO LOW-60S. BUT COMBINED WITH WINDS... COULD FEEL 5-DEGREES
COOLER. SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE CONDITIONS MAKING IT FEEL
UNSEASONABLE.
TUESDAY NIGHT...
REMAINING QUIET AND DRY AS NW-FLOW DIMINISHES. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
LINGER ALONG THE W-PERIPHERY OF THE LOW SE OF CANADA. IT IS POSSIBLE
SOME LOCATIONS COULD RADIATE OUT SHOULD WINDS BECOME LIGHT ENOUGH.
CONFIDENCE IS WITHIN SHELTERED VALLEY REGIMES. LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-
30S TO LOW-40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* PICK OF THE WEEK IS WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND NORMAL TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS
* UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
* IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST. HOWEVER...THEY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING AND HOW
QUICKLY THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE
WEEK. THESE DISCREPANCIES THEN AFFECT THE TIMING OF
FEATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MODEL RUN.
WEDNESDAY...SHOULD BE THE PICK OF THE WEEK. DRY WEATHER AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL RANGE ARE EXPECTED.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST AND STARTS TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. RIGHT NOW...THE TRACK LOOKS TO KEEP IT WELL OUTSIDE
THE BENCHMARK WITH LIMITED IMPACT ON OUR LAND ZONES...BUT
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE MARINE ZONES. MAIN IMPACT TO THE LAND
WILL BE OVERCAST SKIES AND POSSIBLY A BIT OF RAIN CLOSE TO THE
COAST. HOWEVER...THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON THE EVENTUAL TRACK
OF THE LOW. MODEL RUNS DO SEEM TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON KEEPING THE LOW FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE BUT THIS IS A NEW TREND SO
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A VERY NICE WEEKEND
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND PLEASANT...
DRY WEATHER. RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SOMETIME SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS AS A RESULT OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC AND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE TIMING OF THIS WILL LARGELY BE BASED ON HOW THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY TURN OUT.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
.SHORT-TERM /TILL 0Z WEDNESDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
INTO TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW-END VFR CIGS. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
WITH -SHRA...ACROSS E MA / RI...IMPROVEMENT BY 6Z. LOW-RISK IFR
FOR CAPE. NW-WINDS BACKING N-NE BECOMING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS
UPWARDS OF 30-35 KTS ACROSS E MA COAST INCLUDING CAPE.
TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW-END VFR CIGS BECOMING SCT. BKN
DECKS ACROSS E MA. THOUGH NOT AS BLUSTERY...N-WINDS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20-25 KTS...ESP ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND E-COAST MA.
TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW-END VFR CIGS LINGERING ACROSS
E-COASTAL MA. OTHERWISE SKC. NW-FLOW DIMINISHING.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. N-WIND GUSTS INTENSIFYING
TOWARDS MIDNIGHT...DIMINISHING TOWARDS THE MORNING HRS. FEEL THE
NW-WINDS WILL BE PRONOUNCED TO KEEP SEA-BREEZE OFFSHORE TUESDAY.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR WITH A LOW
PROBABILITY OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST.
SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
.SHORT-TERM /TILL TUESDAY EVENING/...
130 PM UPDATE...
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT A WEAK SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY
REMAINS ALONG THE COAST LENDING TO SOME VARIANCE IN THE WIND AT
TIMES. NEVERTHELESS THE DOMINANT FLOW WILL BE NW WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS. SEAS LIKELY TO ENHANCE...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS EVENING AS A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS S ALONG WHICH SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
WITH PASSAGE...WIND GUSTS INCREASE OUT OF THE N WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALES. THESE WINDS CONTINUE INTO MORNING DIMINISHING THROUGH
TUESDAY. SMALL-CRAFTS CONTINUE...GALES FORECAST TO BE SHORT-LIVED
SO WILL EMPHASIZE THREAT IN THE SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORY. WAVES
BUILDING AROUND 6-8 FEET ON THE E-OUTER WATERS...SUBSIDING INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.
.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN DURATION AND MAGNITUDE OF TRENDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING EAST OF
THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NECESSARY WITH
GALE WARNINGS POSSIBLE.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-232.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
FOR ANZ233-234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ230.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-
237-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
315 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY VISIT THE AREA DURING
MIDWEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...WITH IMPROVEMENTS EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
130 PM UPDATE...
LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHWARD TO WHICH THE HRRR HAS TRENDED
WELL...PERHAPS AN HOUR OFF. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW APPLIES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MOVING OFFSHORE ALONG AN ELONGATED
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT STRETCHED MID-LEVEL ENERGY REARWARD OF THE
NEARLY-STACKED LOW SE OF NEWFOUNDLAND SWEEP ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND.
FOCUS SHIFTS TOWARDS A RAIN-BAND PUSHING S OUT OF MAINE ALONG A
BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT. COLLOCATED WITH A STOUT MID-LEVEL IMPULSE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACK-BUILDING LOW AHEAD OF WHICH DEEP-LAYER
FORCING IS INVOKED HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HRRR TRENDS AS WE GO
INTO EVENING. LIKELY TO HIGH CATEGORICAL POPS MAINLY E OF THE CT-
RIVER VALLEY. PUNCH OF COLDER AIR S/SW AS WINDS TURN BLUSTERY OUT
OF THE N/NE. MORE DETAILS IN THE /TONIGHT/ DISCUSSION BELOW.
SO FOR TODAY...ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS WHICH WOULD
YIELD SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ON THE ORDER OF A TRACE TO A
COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS. TEMPERATURES KEPT AT BELOW-SEASONABLE LEVELS
AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-50S...COOLER ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND
ALONG THE COAST. SADLY NOT VERY SPRING-LIKE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF MAKES ITS CLOSET APPROACH TO
S NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...THEN STARTS TO ROTATE BACK OUT TO
SEA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS IT DOES...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
GETS INTO A PATTERN OF DECREASING MOISTURE. IN TURN...THIS MEANS A
LOWER RISK FOR RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION IF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
ENOUGH...AND WE SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE...WHERE SEABREEZES COULD
DEVELOP. THAT WOULD HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE
COASTS. AT THIS TIME...THINKING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED.
TEMPERATURES RISE SLIGHTLY TUESDAY WITH THE ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE...
BUT SHOULD STILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* PICK OF THE WEEK IS WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND NORMAL TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS
* UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
* IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST. HOWEVER...THEY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING AND HOW
QUICKLY THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE
WEEK. THESE DISCREPANCIES THEN AFFECT THE TIMING OF
FEATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MODEL RUN.
WEDNESDAY...SHOULD BE THE PICK OF THE WEEK. DRY WEATHER AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL RANGE ARE EXPECTED.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST AND STARTS TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. RIGHT NOW...THE TRACK LOOKS TO KEEP IT WELL OUTSIDE
THE BENCHMARK WITH LIMITED IMPACT ON OUR LAND ZONES...BUT
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE MARINE ZONES. MAIN IMPACT TO THE LAND
WILL BE OVERCAST SKIES AND POSSIBLY A BIT OF RAIN CLOSE TO THE
COAST. HOWEVER...THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON THE EVENTUAL TRACK
OF THE LOW. MODEL RUNS DO SEEM TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON KEEPING THE LOW FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE BUT THIS IS A NEW TREND SO
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A VERY NICE WEEKEND
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND PLEASANT...
DRY WEATHER. RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SOMETIME SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS AS A RESULT OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC AND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE TIMING OF THIS WILL LARGELY BE BASED ON HOW THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY TURN OUT.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
.SHORT-TERM /TILL 0Z WEDNESDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW-END VFR CIGS MAINLY.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH -SHRA...ACROSS E MA / RI...DEVELOPING
TOWARDS LATER AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...CONCLUDING BY 6Z. LOW-
RISK IFR FOR CAPE. NW-WINDS BACKING N-NE BECOMING BLUSTERY.
TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CIGS IMPROVE TO LOW-END VFR. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST. REMAINS
BLUSTERY OUT N TURNING NW.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEABREEZE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BACK NE TOWARDS EVENING WITH BETTER SHRA
CHANCES.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR WITH A LOW
PROBABILITY OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST.
SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
.SHORT-TERM /TILL TUESDAY EVENING/...
130 PM UPDATE...
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT A WEAK SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY
REMAINS ALONG THE COAST LENDING TO SOME VARIANCE IN THE WIND AT
TIMES. NEVERTHELESS THE DOMINANT FLOW WILL BE NW WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS. SEAS LIKELY TO ENHANCE...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS EVENING AS A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS S ALONG WHICH SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
WITH PASSAGE...WIND GUSTS INCREASE OUT OF THE N WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALES. THESE WINDS CONTINUE INTO MORNING DIMINISHING THROUGH
TUESDAY. SMALL-CRAFTS CONTINUE...BUT MAY NEED TO EXPAND AND ARE
EVALUATING THE POSSIBILITY OF GALES. WAVES BUILDING 6-8 FEET ON
THE E-OUTER WATERS.
.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN DURATION AND MAGNITUDE OF TRENDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING EAST OF
THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NECESSARY WITH
GALE WARNINGS POSSIBLE.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ232.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
FOR ANZ231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY
FOR ANZ250-254-255.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ251.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/RLG
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...BELK/RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/RLG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
140 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY VISIT THE AREA DURING
MIDWEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...WITH IMPROVEMENTS FOR THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
130 PM UPDATE...
LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHWARD TO WHICH THE HRRR HAS TRENDED
WELL...PERHAPS AN HOUR OFF. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW APPLIES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MOVING OFFSHORE ALONG AN ELONGATED
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT STRETCHED MID-LEVEL ENERGY REARWARD OF THE
NEARLY-STACKED LOW SE OF NEWFOUNDLAND SWEEP ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND.
FOCUS SHIFTS TOWARDS A RAIN-BAND PUSHING S OUT OF MAINE ALONG A
BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT. COLLOCATED WITH A STOUT MID-LEVEL IMPULSE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACK-BUILDING LOW AHEAD OF WHICH DEEP-LAYER
FORCING IS INVOKED HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HRRR TRENDS AS WE GO
INTO EVENING. LIKELY TO HIGH CATEGORICAL POPS MAINLY E OF THE CT-
RIVER VALLEY. PUNCH OF COLDER AIR S/SW AS WINDS TURN BLUSTERY OUT
OF THE N/NE. MORE DETAILS IN THE /TONIGHT/ DISCUSSION BELOW.
SO FOR TODAY...ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS WHICH WOULD
YIELD SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ON THE ORDER OF A TRACE TO A
COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS. TEMPERATURES KEPT AT BELOW-SEASONABLE LEVELS
AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-50S...COOLER ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND
ALONG THE COAST. SADLY NOT VERY SPRING-LIKE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF MAKES ITS CLOSET APPROACH TO
S NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...THEN STARTS TO ROTATE BACK OUT TO
SEA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS IT DOES...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
GETS INTO A PATTERN OF DECREASING MOISTURE. IN TURN...THIS MEANS A
LOWER RISK FOR RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION IF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
ENOUGH...AND WE SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE...WHERE SEABREEZES COULD
DEVELOP. THAT WOULD HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE
COASTS. AT THIS TIME...THINKING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED.
TEMPERATURES RISE SLIGHTLY TUESDAY WITH THE ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE...
BUT SHOULD STILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
* DIGGING TROUGH/COASTAL LOW ON THURS/FRIDAY BRINGS BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS
* IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE WEEKEND
OVERVIEW...
CLOSED LOW WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW WILL
EJECT OFFSHORE BY TUES ALLOWING FOR BRIEF RIDGING ON WED. STILL
WATCHING TWO SYSTEMS WHICH WILL PUT THE NORTHEAST BACK INTO A DEEP
TROUGH BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE
NORTHERN STREAM PHASES WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WHICH HAS ALLOWED
FOR LARGE MODEL SPREAD OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. OVERALL THE 00Z
GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWS A STRONGER OH VLY/MID ATLC UPPER LOW THUS
LEADING TO A FARTHER WESTWARD SURFACE TRACK THURSDAY. THE 00Z GFS
IS LOOKING LIKE A DEEP EXTREME WITH ITS UPR LOW THOUGH...WITH THE
GEFS MEAN AND NEW ECMWF SUPPORTING MORE MODERATE DEPTH. THEREFORE
BELIEVE GFS TO BE AN OUTLIER COMPARED THE OTHER GUIDANCE AND TRENDED
TOWARDS WPC/EC/UKMET. ONCE THE SYSTEMS PHASE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
APPEARS THAT THIS COASTAL LOW WILL STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z EC ENSEMBLES. BEGINNING OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENTS AS CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE WILL MOVE
EASTWARD.
DETAILS...
* WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH A WEAK RIDGE OVER
THE REGION. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND A BREAK IN PRECIP
AND TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE COOLER THANKS TO
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
* THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE 4 CORNERS AND
THE DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES. REGARDLESS APPEARS DEEP
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP PUTTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BACK BELOW NORMAL
FOR TEMPS. THIS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS
AND PUSH NORTHWARDS. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER STALLING THE
LOW INSIDE THE BENCHMARK FOR SEVERAL HOURS. TRENDED TOWARDS THE
CONSISTENT EC WHICH STILL KEEPS IT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK...YET SLIGHTLY STRONGER THEN PREV RUNS. BELIEVE THURS AND
FRI WILL BE MORE HIT OF MISS SHOWERS AND CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHER
POPS ALONG THE CAPE AND ISLANDS FOR COASTAL SYSTEM. ALSO KNOCKED
TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM GUIDANCE AS CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DIURNAL
HEATING.
* THE WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY AS WEAK
RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. MAY NEED TO WATCH QUICK MOVING
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WHICH COULD GIVE SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL HOPING FOR A NICE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL.
* MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY IS LOOKING WARM BUT STILL UNCERTAIN ON PRECIP CHANCES AS
PATTERN WILL ALL BE DEPENDENT ON THE THURS/FRI SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
.SHORT-TERM /TILL 0Z WEDNESDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW-END VFR CIGS MAINLY.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH -SHRA...ACROSS E MA / RI...DEVELOPING
TOWARDS LATER AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...CONCLUDING BY 6Z. LOW-
RISK IFR FOR CAPE. NW-WINDS BACKING N-NE BECOMING BLUSTERY.
TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CIGS IMPROVE TO LOW-END VFR. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST. REMAINS
BLUSTERY OUT N TURNING NW.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEABREEZE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BACK NE TOWARDS EVENING WITH BETTER SHRA
CHANCES.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS. SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF COASTLINE.
CIGS/VSBYS COULD BE LOWER DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
.SHORT-TERM /TILL TUESDAY EVENING/...
130 PM UPDATE...
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT A WEAK SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY
REMAINS ALONG THE COAST LENDING TO SOME VARIANCE IN THE WIND AT
TIMES. NEVERTHELESS THE DOMINANT FLOW WILL BE NW WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS. SEAS LIKELY TO ENHANCE...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS EVENING AS A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS S ALONG WHICH SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
WITH PASSAGE...WIND GUSTS INCREASE OUT OF THE N WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALES. THESE WINDS CONTINUE INTO MORNING DIMINISHING THROUGH
TUESDAY. SMALL-CRAFTS CONTINUE...BUT MAY NEED TO EXPAND AND ARE
EVALUATING THE POSSIBILITY OF GALES. WAVES BUILDING 6-8 FEET ON
THE E-OUTER WATERS.
.OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY...GOOD BOATING WEATHER AS WIND AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGES FROM THE
CAROLINA COASTLINE AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW CLOSE THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM
MAKES IT TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. IF IT STAYS WELL
OFFSHORE...SWELLS COULD BRING A PERIOD OF ROUGH SEAS TO OUR COASTAL
WATERS. A CLOSER APPROACH WOULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS FOR
FRIDAY. AGAIN HAVE UNDERCUT WNA WAVE GUIDANCE BY 40 TO 50
PERCENT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ232.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
FOR ANZ231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY
FOR ANZ250-254-255.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ251.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1008 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY VISIT THE AREA DURING
MIDWEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...WITH IMPROVEMENTS FOR THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...
SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS AN
ELONGATED TROUGH AND ATTENDANT STRETCHED MID-LEVEL ENERGY REARWARD
OF THE NEARLY-STACKED LOW SE OF NEWFOUNDLAND SWEEP ACROSS S NEW
ENGLAND. MAIN FOCUS IS TOWARDS EVENING AS THE LOW BACKBUILDS INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE. ACCOMPANYING STOUT MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND UPPER-
LEVEL JET STREAK WILL INVOKE STRONG FORCING ALONG A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HRRR TRENDS AS WE GO INTO EVENING.
LIKELY TO HIGH CATEGORICAL POPS MAINLY E OF THE CT-RIVER VALLEY.
PUNCH OF COLDER AIR S/SW AS WINDS TURN BLUSTERY OUT OF THE N/NE.
MORE DETAILS IN THE /TONIGHT/ DISCUSSION BELOW.
SO FOR TODAY...ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS WHICH WOULD
YIELD SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ON THE ORDER OF A TRACE TO A
COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS. TEMPERATURES KEPT AT BELOW-SEASONABLE LEVELS
AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-50S...COOLER ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND
ALONG THE COAST. SADLY NOT VERY SPRING-LIKE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF MAKES ITS CLOSET APPROACH TO
S NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...THEN STARTS TO ROTATE BACK OUT TO
SEA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS IT DOES...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
GETS INTO A PATTERN OF DECREASING MOISTURE. IN TURN...THIS MEANS A
LOWER RISK FOR RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION IF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
ENOUGH...AND WE SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE...WHERE SEABREEZES COULD
DEVELOP. THAT WOULD HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE
COASTS. AT THIS TIME...THINKING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED.
TEMPERATURES RISE SLIGHTLY TUESDAY WITH THE ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE...
BUT SHOULD STILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
* DIGGING TROUGH/COASTAL LOW ON THURS/FRIDAY BRINGS BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS
* IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE WEEKEND
OVERVIEW...
CLOSED LOW WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW WILL
EJECT OFFSHORE BY TUES ALLOWING FOR BRIEF RIDGING ON WED. STILL
WATCHING TWO SYSTEMS WHICH WILL PUT THE NORTHEAST BACK INTO A DEEP
TROUGH BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE
NORTHERN STREAM PHASES WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WHICH HAS ALLOWED
FOR LARGE MODEL SPREAD OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. OVERALL THE 00Z
GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWS A STRONGER OH VLY/MID ATLC UPPER LOW THUS
LEADING TO A FARTHER WESTWARD SURFACE TRACK THURSDAY. THE 00Z GFS
IS LOOKING LIKE A DEEP EXTREME WITH ITS UPR LOW THOUGH...WITH THE
GEFS MEAN AND NEW ECMWF SUPPORTING MORE MODERATE DEPTH. THEREFORE
BELIEVE GFS TO BE AN OUTLIER COMPARED THE OTHER GUIDANCE AND TRENDED
TOWARDS WPC/EC/UKMET. ONCE THE SYSTEMS PHASE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
APPEARS THAT THIS COASTAL LOW WILL STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z EC ENSEMBLES. BEGINNING OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENTS AS CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE WILL MOVE
EASTWARD.
DETAILS...
* WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH A WEAK RIDGE OVER
THE REGION. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND A BREAK IN PRECIP
AND TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE COOLER THANKS TO
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
* THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE 4 CORNERS AND
THE DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES. REGARDLESS APPEARS DEEP
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP PUTTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BACK BELOW NORMAL
FOR TEMPS. THIS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS
AND PUSH NORTHWARDS. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER STALLING THE
LOW INSIDE THE BENCHMARK FOR SEVERAL HOURS. TRENDED TOWARDS THE
CONSISTENT EC WHICH STILL KEEPS IT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK...YET SLIGHTLY STRONGER THEN PREV RUNS. BELIEVE THURS AND
FRI WILL BE MORE HIT OF MISS SHOWERS AND CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHER
POPS ALONG THE CAPE AND ISLANDS FOR COASTAL SYSTEM. ALSO KNOCKED
TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM GUIDANCE AS CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DIURNAL
HEATING.
* THE WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY AS WEAK
RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. MAY NEED TO WATCH QUICK MOVING
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WHICH COULD GIVE SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL HOPING FOR A NICE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL.
* MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY IS LOOKING WARM BUT STILL UNCERTAIN ON PRECIP CHANCES AS
PATTERN WILL ALL BE DEPENDENT ON THE THURS/FRI SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
.SHORT-TERM /TILL 0Z WEDNESDAY/...
14Z UPDATE...
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW-END VFR CIGS MAINLY.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH -SHRA...ACROSS E MA / RI...DEVELOPING
TOWARDS EVENING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. LOW-RISK IFR FOR CAPE.
NW-WINDS BACKING N-NE BECOMING BLUSTERY.
TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CIGS IMPROVE TO LOW-END VFR. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST. REMAINS
BLUSTERY OUT N TURNING NW.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEABREEZE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BACK NE TOWARDS EVENING WITH BETTER SHRA
CHANCES.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS. SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF COASTLINE.
CIGS/VSBYS COULD BE LOWER DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
.SHORT-TERM /TILL TUESDAY EVENING/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING.
WINDS AND SEAS START TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY A AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE WATERS.
ENOUGH NORTHERLY GRADIENT ANTICIPATED TUESDAY THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MASSACHUSETTS SHORELINE. WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FOR SOME OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHERE CONFIDENCE IS GREATEST. THIS
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FARTHER WEST WITH LATER
FORECASTS.
.OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY...GOOD BOATING WEATHER AS WIND AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGES FROM THE
CAROLINA COASTLINE AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW CLOSE THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM
MAKES IT TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. IF IT STAYS WELL
OFFSHORE...SWELLS COULD BRING A PERIOD OF ROUGH SEAS TO OUR COASTAL
WATERS. A CLOSER APPROACH WOULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS FOR
FRIDAY. AGAIN HAVE UNDERCUT WNA WAVE GUIDANCE BY 40 TO 50
PERCENT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ232.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
FOR ANZ231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY
FOR ANZ250-254-255.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ251.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1033 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015
...UPDATED TO ADD MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY...
.UPDATE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE NATURE COAST IS CONTINUING
TO PRODUCE SHOWERS FROM CITRUS COUNTY NORTHWARD. THIS BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY WITH SHOWERS
SPREADING OVER TAMPA BAY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON OURS. THE 12Z SOUNDING IS SHOWING ABUNDANT MOISTURE
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH 1.69 INCHES PWAT. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE MOST EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE
FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD AND CLEAR TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FARTHER
SOUTHWARD. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL IS DEPICTING THE RAIN COVERAGE
WELL THIS MORNING OVER THE NATURE COAST AND HAS IT SPREADING
REGION WIDE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. FORECAST POPS THROUGH 18Z LOOK
GOOD FOR NOW WITH 60-70 PERCENT NORTH OF TAMPA BAY AND TAPERING
BACK TO 20-40 PERCENT DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL KEEP
FORECAST AS IS FOR NOW AND MAKE CHANGES AS NECESSARY BASED ON
UPDATED RADAR AND MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WILL IMPACT
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OVER THE NORTHERN MOST TERMINALS THROUGH
19Z. RAINFALL WILL SPREAD FARTHER SOUTH AFTER 19Z SO WILL KEEP
VCTS IN THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS DURING THAT PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE OVERNIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL MOVES IN
TOMORROW WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST
OF THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND
REDEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WEST TO
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CREATE MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS AND THE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 87 75 82 73 / 50 60 80 70
FMY 91 74 87 75 / 30 20 60 70
GIF 85 71 84 71 / 50 40 80 70
SRQ 85 73 84 74 / 40 40 70 80
BKV 84 67 81 68 / 70 60 80 70
SPG 85 75 81 74 / 50 50 80 80
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE- COASTAL
MANATEE- COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
918 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015
.UPDATE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE NATURE COAST IS CONTINUING
TO PRODUCE SHOWERS FROM CITRUS COUNTY NORTHWARD. THIS BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY WITH SHOWERS
SPREADING OVER TAMPA BAY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON OURS. THE 12Z SOUNDING IS SHOWING ABUNDANT MOISTURE
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH 1.69 INCHES PWAT. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE MOST EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE
FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD AND CLEAR TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FARTHER
SOUTHWARD. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL IS DEPICTING THE RAIN COVERAGE
WELL THIS MORNING OVER THE NATURE COAST AND HAS IT SPREADING
REGION WIDE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. FORECAST POPS THROUGH 18Z LOOK
GOOD FOR NOW WITH 60-70 PERCENT NORTH OF TAMPA BAY AND TAPERING
BACK TO 20-40 PERCENT DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL KEEP
FORECAST AS IS FOR NOW AND MAKE CHANGES AS NECESSARY BASED ON
UPDATED RADAR AND MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WILL IMPACT
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OVER THE NORTHERN MOST TERMINALS THROUGH
19Z. RAINFALL WILL SPREAD FARTHER SOUTH AFTER 19Z SO WILL KEEP
VCTS IN THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS DURING THAT PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE OVERNIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL MOVES IN
TOMORROW WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST
OF THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND
REDEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WEST TO
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CREATE MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS AND THE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 87 75 82 73 / 50 60 80 70
FMY 91 74 87 75 / 30 20 60 70
GIF 85 71 84 71 / 50 40 80 70
SRQ 85 73 84 74 / 40 40 70 80
BKV 84 67 81 68 / 70 60 80 70
SPG 85 75 81 74 / 50 50 80 80
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
107 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1049 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE MAJORITY OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS, WITH SOME
CIRRUS STREAMING ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AND TEMPERATURES ON THEIR WAY TO A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN MOST PLACES. QUIET WEATHER DOMINATES WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. NO UPDATES TO THE
FORECAST ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A HIGH CENTERED IN WESTERN ONTARIO
INTO WEST CENTRAL IL WILL KEEP US COOL AND GENERALLY CLEAR TODAY.
THE RAP AND HRRR BOTH INDICATE THAT SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP IN
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
IN EAST CENTRAL IL. IN ADDITION, PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
RESULT IN PERIODICALLY GUSTY NORTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF
THE SURFACE RIDGING AND A DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
LATE APRIL.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
GENERAL NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO MID
WEEK...AS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES
TO WOBBLE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. DESPITE THIS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 60S THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NEW MEXICO WILL DRIFT EAST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BUT THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINS
WELL TO OUR SOUTH. MEANWHILE...A LARGE UPPER WAVE OVER WESTERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND CENTRAL MONTANA THIS MORNING WILL BE REACHING THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY EVENING. EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD BEEN STRUGGLING
WITH A PIECE OF ENERGY PINCHING OFF SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY AS THE
WAVE ARRIVED...BUT LATEST RUNS SHOW A SIZABLE UPPER LOW DROPPING
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH...AS THE CIRCULATION AROUND IT COULD RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS
OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN CWA BY THURSDAY...BUT GENERAL CONSENSUS
NOW KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION JUST TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER, IT WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS IN THE 60S...BEFORE A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
WEEKEND PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN A CHALLENGE...WITH THE GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR MCS ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY
AS WEAK UPPER IMPULSES ZIP THROUGH. HAVE KEPT SATURDAY POP`S IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE...WHILE INCREASING THEM ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY AS A STRONGER WAVE ARRIVES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015
VFR AND BREEZY NNE WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE IN THE OVERNIGHT. LITTLE EXPECTED IN THE WAY OF
CIGS...WITH A SCT CU FIELD DEVELOPING BTWN 4500 AND 5000 FT. WILL
WATCH CLOSELY FOR THE XOVER VALUES THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SO FAR,
WINDS SHOULD STAY UP JUST ENOUGH TO COUNTER FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT, SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. KEEPING VFR THROUGHOUT.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1053 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1049 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE MAJORITY OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS, WITH SOME
CIRRUS STREAMING ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AND TEMPERATURES ON THEIR WAY TO A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN MOST PLACES. QUIET WEATHER DOMINATES WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. NO UPDATES TO THE
FORECAST ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A HIGH CENTERED IN WESTERN ONTARIO
INTO WEST CENTRAL IL WILL KEEP US COOL AND GENERALLY CLEAR TODAY.
THE RAP AND HRRR BOTH INDICATE THAT SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP IN
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
IN EAST CENTRAL IL. IN ADDITION, PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
RESULT IN PERIODICALLY GUSTY NORTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF
THE SURFACE RIDGING AND A DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
LATE APRIL.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
GENERAL NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO MID
WEEK...AS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES
TO WOBBLE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. DESPITE THIS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 60S THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NEW MEXICO WILL DRIFT EAST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BUT THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINS
WELL TO OUR SOUTH. MEANWHILE...A LARGE UPPER WAVE OVER WESTERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND CENTRAL MONTANA THIS MORNING WILL BE REACHING THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY EVENING. EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD BEEN STRUGGLING
WITH A PIECE OF ENERGY PINCHING OFF SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY AS THE
WAVE ARRIVED...BUT LATEST RUNS SHOW A SIZABLE UPPER LOW DROPPING
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH...AS THE CIRCULATION AROUND IT COULD RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS
OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN CWA BY THURSDAY...BUT GENERAL CONSENSUS
NOW KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION JUST TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER, IT WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS IN THE 60S...BEFORE A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
WEEKEND PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN A CHALLENGE...WITH THE GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR MCS ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY
AS WEAK UPPER IMPULSES ZIP THROUGH. HAVE KEPT SATURDAY POP`S IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE...WHILE INCREASING THEM ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY AS A STRONGER WAVE ARRIVES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN ALL OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS, ALONG WITH THE MANY OF
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS, INDICATE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIFT ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CUMULUS IN THE EASTERN
HALF OF IL FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE ONLY CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE WITH PERIODS OF WIND GUSTS
ANTICIPATED AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MIXES FROM 15Z THROUGH 00/01Z.
THE RESULTING MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL PRODUCE SUSTAINED NORTH
WINDS OF 12-15 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
638 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A HIGH CENTERED IN WESTERN ONTARIO
INTO WEST CENTRAL IL WILL KEEP US COOL AND GENERALLY CLEAR TODAY.
THE RAP AND HRRR BOTH INDICATE THAT SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP IN
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
IN EAST CENTRAL IL. IN ADDITION, PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
RESULT IN PERIODICALLY GUSTY NORTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF
THE SURFACE RIDGING AND A DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
LATE APRIL.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
GENERAL NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO MID
WEEK...AS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES
TO WOBBLE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. DESPITE THIS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 60S THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NEW MEXICO WILL DRIFT EAST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BUT THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINS
WELL TO OUR SOUTH. MEANWHILE...A LARGE UPPER WAVE OVER WESTERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND CENTRAL MONTANA THIS MORNING WILL BE REACHING THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY EVENING. EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD BEEN STRUGGLING
WITH A PIECE OF ENERGY PINCHING OFF SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY AS THE
WAVE ARRIVED...BUT LATEST RUNS SHOW A SIZABLE UPPER LOW DROPPING
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH...AS THE CIRCULATION AROUND IT COULD RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS
OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN CWA BY THURSDAY...BUT GENERAL CONSENSUS
NOW KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION JUST TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER, IT WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS IN THE 60S...BEFORE A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
WEEKEND PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN A CHALLENGE...WITH THE GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR MCS ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY
AS WEAK UPPER IMPULSES ZIP THROUGH. HAVE KEPT SATURDAY POP`S IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE...WHILE INCREASING THEM ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY AS A STRONGER WAVE ARRIVES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN ALL OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS, ALONG WITH THE MANY OF
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS, INDICATE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIFT ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CUMULUS IN THE EASTERN
HALF OF IL FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE ONLY CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE WITH PERIODS OF WIND GUSTS
ANTICIPATED AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MIXES FROM 15Z THROUGH 00/01Z.
THE RESULTING MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL PRODUCE SUSTAINED NORTH
WINDS OF 12-15 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
305 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A HIGH CENTERED IN WESTERN ONTARIO
INTO WEST CENTRAL IL WILL KEEP US COOL AND GENERALLY CLEAR TODAY.
THE RAP AND HRRR BOTH INDICATE THAT SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP IN
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
IN EAST CENTRAL IL. IN ADDITION, PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
RESULT IN PERIODICALLY GUSTY NORTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF
THE SURFACE RIDGING AND A DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
LATE APRIL.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
GENERAL NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO MID
WEEK...AS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES
TO WOBBLE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. DESPITE THIS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 60S THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NEW MEXICO WILL DRIFT EAST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BUT THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINS
WELL TO OUR SOUTH. MEANWHILE...A LARGE UPPER WAVE OVER WESTERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND CENTRAL MONTANA THIS MORNING WILL BE REACHING THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY EVENING. EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD BEEN STRUGGLING
WITH A PIECE OF ENERGY PINCHING OFF SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY AS THE
WAVE ARRIVED...BUT LATEST RUNS SHOW A SIZABLE UPPER LOW DROPPING
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH...AS THE CIRCULATION AROUND IT COULD RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS
OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN CWA BY THURSDAY...BUT GENERAL CONSENSUS
NOW KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION JUST TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER, IT WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS IN THE 60S...BEFORE A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
WEEKEND PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN A CHALLENGE...WITH THE GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR MCS ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY
AS WEAK UPPER IMPULSES ZIP THROUGH. HAVE KEPT SATURDAY POP`S IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE...WHILE INCREASING THEM ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY AS A STRONGER WAVE ARRIVES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING A MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...WITH THE SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST UP TO
20 KTS POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
147 PM MDT MON APR 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM MDT MON APR 27 2015
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE SCALE CLOSED UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER TX PANHANDLE WITH MID LEVEL VORTICITY ROTATING
THROUGH OK/SOUTHER KS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO
BUILD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR
CWA..ALONG WITH FALLING TDS.
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...RADAR SHOWS BULK OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIP ALONG KS/OK BORDER TRANSITING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...THOUGH
THERE ARE SOME LIGHT RETURNS ROTATING NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
PART OF OUR CWA. BASED ON INCREASING TD DEPRESSION OVER THE
CWA...AND AXIS OF FORCING/BETTER MOISTURE WELL SOUTH...ANY OF THESE
LIGHT RETURNS WOULD LIKELY BE VIRGA AT MOST THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR WITH BUILDING
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. GOOD RADIATION CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
LOCATIONS IN OUR CWA TO REACH FREEZING (POSSIBLY LOWER)
TONIGHT...THOUGH WITH AN INCREASE IN TD VALUES ADVERTISED FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE WE MAY NOT FALL AS MUCH. WET GROUND CONDITIONS COULD
ALSO KEEP TD VALUES FROM DROPPING AS MUCH AS ADVERTISED WHICH SEEMS
TO ALREADY BE THE CASE THIS AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY...H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST AND TEMPS ALOFT WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE...AND BETTER DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS IN
THE 60S/NEAR 70 FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. THERE IS STILL A SECONDARY H3
JET PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND A LIGHT PRECIP
SIGNAL WITH SOME GUIDANCE IN OUR NORTH. I STILL CANT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SPRINKLE IN OUR NORTHEAST WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AS
MID LEVEL VORT MAX PASSES TO THE NORTH AND COLD POOL DEVELOPS...BUT
MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. IN THE END THIS
MAY JUST BE VIRGA AND LITTLE ELSE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT MON APR 27 2015
GOING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...H5/H7 RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ENTIRE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS THRU MIDWEEK. MODELS
TREND THIS RIDGE TO FLATTEN... AND ALLOW FOR ZONAL FLOW FOR THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK ON INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS TO ENSUE INTO THURSDAY...BUT WITH RIDGE
FLATTENING ALLOWING ZONAL FLOW...THE AREA WILL SEE A SEVERAL 700MB
SHORTWAVES WORKING OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS REGION. EACH
SUBSEQUENT SYSTEM WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR RW/TRW...WITH BEST
CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AT THE END OF THE WEEK. SURFACE LEE-
SIDE TROUGHS WILL WORK OFF THE FRONT RANGE WITH EACH
SYSTEM...PROVIDING ENHANCEMENT FOR TRW TO FORM...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HRS. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED WILL RANGE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR BOTH HIGH/LOWS. 850 TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR
HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S...ON UP TO 80F IN SPOTS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...WITH SOME L50S
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL/COULD BE TEMPERED SOME BY THE
EXTENT OF CLOUDS FROM EXPECTED PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME VIRGA AT KGLD AND KMCK THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND COULD BRING ISOLATED SPRINKLES TO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. DECIDED TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF KMCK TAF
CONSIDERING LIMITED CONFIDENCE AND COVERAGE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO GUST AT KGLD 20-25KT THIS AFTERNOON DECREASING AROUND 00Z.
LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10KT ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. AFTER THAT
PREVAILING WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT BOTH KGLD/KMCK AND
INCREASE TO NEAR 12KT BY MIDDAY TUESDAY AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1256 PM MDT MON APR 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM MDT MON APR 27 2015
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE SCALE CLOSED UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER TX PANHANDLE WITH MID LEVEL VORTICITY ROTATING
THROUGH OK/SOUTHER KS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO
BUILD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR
CWA..ALONG WITH FALLING TDS.
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...RADAR SHOWS BULK OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIP ALONG KS/OK BORDER TRANSITING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...THOUGH
THERE ARE SOME LIGHT RETURNS ROTATING NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
PART OF OUR CWA. BASED ON INCREASING TD DEPRESSION OVER THE
CWA...AND AXIS OF FORCING/BETTER MOISTURE WELL SOUTH...ANY OF THESE
LIGHT RETURNS WOULD LIKELY BE VIRGA AT MOST THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR WITH BUILDING
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. GOOD RADIATION CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
LOCATIONS IN OUR CWA TO REACH FREEZING (POSSIBLY LOWER)
TONIGHT...THOUGH WITH AN INCREASE IN TD VALUES ADVERTISED FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE WE MAY NOT FALL AS MUCH. WET GROUND CONDITIONS COULD
ALSO KEEP TD VALUES FROM DROPPING AS MUCH AS ADVERTISED WHICH SEEMS
TO ALREADY BE THE CASE THIS AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY...H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST AND TEMPS ALOFT WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE...AND BETTER DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS IN
THE 60S/NEAR 70 FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. THERE IS STILL A SECONDARY H3
JET PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND A LIGHT PRECIP
SIGNAL WITH SOME GUIDANCE IN OUR NORTH. I STILL CANT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SPRINKLE IN OUR NORTHEAST WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AS
MID LEVEL VORT MAX PASSES TO THE NORTH AND COLD POOL DEVELOPS...BUT
MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. IN THE END THIS
MAY JUST BE VIRGA AND LITTLE ELSE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015
THE 500MB RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD AND FLATTEN
THUS LEADING TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND NEARLY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS GOING INTO FRIDAY. STRONG 500MB FLOW ACROSS THE
ROCKIES ON SATURDAY LEADS TO THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH FAVORING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE TROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH THE GFS BEING QUITE A
BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH AS IT PROGRESSES
EASTWARD.
I WENT WITH MORE OF A GFS SOLUTION IN THE 4 TO 7 DAY BASED ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROUGH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
TO THE WEST OF THE CWA AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THIS TROUGH. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME VIRGA AT KGLD AND KMCK THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND COULD BRING ISOLATED SPRINKLES TO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. DECIDED TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF KMCK TAF
CONSIDERING LIMITED CONFIDENCE AND COVERAGE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO GUST AT KGLD 20-25KT THIS AFTERNOON DECREASING AROUND 00Z.
LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10KT ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. AFTER THAT
PREVAILING WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT BOTH KGLD/KMCK AND
INCREASE TO NEAR 12KT BY MIDDAY TUESDAY AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...TML
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1127 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015
RAINFALL IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA IS MOVING OUT FASTER
THAN ANTICIPATED. SO UPDATED TO REDUCE THE POPS EVEN FASTER THAN
BEFORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE HOW FAST PRECIPITATION ENDS AND CLEARING
BEGINS TODAY AND ITS AFFECTS ON THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...LOW
TEMPERATURES THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
TUESDAY...AND HOW MUCH THE WARMUP WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SATELLITE SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WITH AMPLIFIED FLOW
EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
AT JET LEVEL...ALL THE MODELS WERE CLOSE ON THE JET WITH THE NAM AND
THE ECMWF DOING A LITTLE BETTER. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS NOT TOO BAD
AT MID LEVELS WITH THE GFS...CANADIAN AND UKMET DOING THE BEST. THE
NAM WAS DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE
GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE CANADIAN AND NAM ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...RAINFALL HAS ALREADY ENDED OVER THE NORTHEAST TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA AS THE LAST BAND OF RAINFALL CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTH AND WEST. THIS IS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. MOST MODEL OUTPUT NO
MATTER HOW WELL IT IS CURRENTLY DOING ON THE POSITION OF THE
RAINFALL...ENDS THE RAINFALL BY 18Z. THE HRRR IS DOING THE BEST ON
ITS POSITION AT THIS TIME. BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND
HRRR...WILL LOWER THE POPS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY AND HAVE
THEM END BY LATE IN THE MORNING. WILL END UP HAVING SOME KIND OF
FOG MENTION THROUGH MID MORNING DUE TO THE CLEARING...MOIST LOW
LEVELS AND CONTINUED UPSLOPE WINDS.
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE DAY AND THERE IS A LOT DRIER AIR FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH MID
LEVELS THAT WILL BE PULLED INTO THE AREA. SO AS THE LAST FEW DAYS
HAS SHOWN...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA SHOULD BE THE WARMEST
SINCE IT CLEAR THE FIRST AND MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
GOING MAXES.
MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS...LIGHTER WINDS...AND LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR TONIGHT. CURRENT GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE WARMER
THAN YESTERDAYS. MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST HALF WILL HAVE WET GROUND AND
THAT MAYBE COULD MODERATE THE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN PLACE AND WENT WITH THE
COOLEST GUIDANCE.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF NORTHERN JET IS
APPROACHING DURING THE DAY AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA WILL BE AFFECTED OR BE CLOSE TO BE AFFECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS JET MOVES ACROSS DURING THE NIGHT. NEW MODEL OUTPUT
KEEPS ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL NORTH OF OUR AREA. THERE IS SOME
COLD AIR ALOFT WITH A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
MOVING THROUGH AT THE SAME TIME AS THE JET LIFT.
THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING IN. GOOD
LAPSE RATES ARE IN PLACE AS WELL. SAME PROBLEM AS THE DAY SHIFT
POINTED OUT YESTERDAY...LACK OF MOISTURE/DEEP DRY LAYER...ARE
STILL IN PLACE. THERE IS ENOUGH THERE THAT CONTINUING THE
SPRINKLES THE DAY SHIFT PUT IN LOOKS REASONABLE.
AS STATED ABOVE THERE LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE ANOTHER PRESSURE OR
COLD SURGE THAT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUING. CURRENTLY THERE IS A FRONT TO THE NORTH WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING SO THIS DEFINITELY SEEMS REASONABLE. PLUS
CLOUD COVER MAY INCREASE IN THE FAR NORTH DURING THE DAY. SO
TEMPERED THE WARMUP AND TENDED TO GO TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
GUIDANCE.
ANOTHER WEAK WIND FIELD IS IN PLACE DURING THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...IT
DOES LOOK LIKE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE/DRAINAGE WINDS DO DEVELOP IN THE
LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT. STILL THE SETUP IN PLACE WOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE AND TRENDED IN THAT
DIRECTION.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH DOES IT WARM
UP AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/PLENTY OF SUN MOVE INTO THE AREA.
DESPITE THIS...STILL RATHER SHARP NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE.
SINCE THERE IS ALSO A LACK OF CROSS MOUNTAIN COMPONENT ON THE MID
LEVEL WINDS...DO NOT EXPECT A STRONG LEE TROUGH TO DEVELOP. IN
FACT...WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT THE SURFACE WIND FIELD IS
ACTUALLY RESPONDING LIKE ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY IS MOVING THROUGH
WITH AN UNFAVORABLE SURFACE WIND FIELD IN PLACE. SO BACKED OFF A
LITTLE ON THE WARMING WITH THE NWP LOOKING A LITTLE WARM IN THIS
PATTERN. WENT CLOSER TO THE 2 METER AND BIAS ADJUSTMENT ON THE 850
MB TEMPERATURE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015
THE 500MB RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD AND FLATTEN
THUS LEADING TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND NEARLY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS GOING INTO FRIDAY. STRONG 500MB FLOW ACROSS THE
ROCKIES ON SATURDAY LEADS TO THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH FAVORING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE TROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH THE GFS BEING QUITE A
BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH AS IT PROGRESSES
EASTWARD.
I WENT WITH MORE OF A GFS SOLUTION IN THE 4 TO 7 DAY BASED ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROUGH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
TO THE WEST OF THE CWA AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THIS TROUGH. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME VIRGA AT KGLD AND KMCK THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND COULD BRING ISOLATED SPRINKLES TO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. DECIDED TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF KMCK TAF
CONSIDERING LIMITED CONFIDENCE AND COVERAGE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO GUST AT KGLD 20-25KT THIS AFTERNOON DECREASING AROUND 00Z.
LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10KT ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. AFTER THAT
PREVAILING WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT BOTH KGLD/KMCK AND
INCREASE TO NEAR 12KT BY MIDDAY TUESDAY AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...TML
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
551 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015
RAINFALL IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA IS MOVING OUT FASTER
THAN ANTICIPATED. SO UPDATED TO REDUCE THE POPS EVEN FASTER THAN
BEFORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE HOW FAST PRECIPITATION ENDS AND CLEARING
BEGINS TODAY AND ITS AFFECTS ON THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...LOW
TEMPERATURES THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
TUESDAY...AND HOW MUCH THE WARMUP WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SATELLITE SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WITH AMPLIFIED FLOW
EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
AT JET LEVEL...ALL THE MODELS WERE CLOSE ON THE JET WITH THE NAM AND
THE ECMWF DOING A LITTLE BETTER. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS NOT TOO BAD
AT MID LEVELS WITH THE GFS...CANADIAN AND UKMET DOING THE BEST. THE
NAM WAS DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE
GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE CANADIAN AND NAM ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...RAINFALL HAS ALREADY ENDED OVER THE NORTHEAST TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA AS THE LAST BAND OF RAINFALL CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTH AND WEST. THIS IS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. MOST MODEL OUTPUT NO
MATTER HOW WELL IT IS CURRENTLY DOING ON THE POSITION OF THE
RAINFALL...ENDS THE RAINFALL BY 18Z. THE HRRR IS DOING THE BEST ON
ITS POSITION AT THIS TIME. BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND
HRRR...WILL LOWER THE POPS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY AND HAVE
THEM END BY LATE IN THE MORNING. WILL END UP HAVING SOME KIND OF
FOG MENTION THROUGH MID MORNING DUE TO THE CLEARING...MOIST LOW
LEVELS AND CONTINUED UPSLOPE WINDS.
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE DAY AND THERE IS A LOT DRIER AIR FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH MID
LEVELS THAT WILL BE PULLED INTO THE AREA. SO AS THE LAST FEW DAYS
HAS SHOWN...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA SHOULD BE THE WARMEST
SINCE IT CLEAR THE FIRST AND MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
GOING MAXES.
MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS...LIGHTER WINDS...AND LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR TONIGHT. CURRENT GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE WARMER
THAN YESTERDAYS. MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST HALF WILL HAVE WET GROUND AND
THAT MAYBE COULD MODERATE THE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN PLACE AND WENT WITH THE
COOLEST GUIDANCE.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF NORTHERN JET IS
APPROACHING DURING THE DAY AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA WILL BE AFFECTED OR BE CLOSE TO BE AFFECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS JET MOVES ACROSS DURING THE NIGHT. NEW MODEL OUTPUT
KEEPS ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL NORTH OF OUR AREA. THERE IS SOME
COLD AIR ALOFT WITH A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
MOVING THROUGH AT THE SAME TIME AS THE JET LIFT.
THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING IN. GOOD
LAPSE RATES ARE IN PLACE AS WELL. SAME PROBLEM AS THE DAY SHIFT
POINTED OUT YESTERDAY...LACK OF MOISTURE/DEEP DRY LAYER...ARE
STILL IN PLACE. THERE IS ENOUGH THERE THAT CONTINUING THE
SPRINKLES THE DAY SHIFT PUT IN LOOKS REASONABLE.
AS STATED ABOVE THERE LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE ANOTHER PRESSURE OR
COLD SURGE THAT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUING. CURRENTLY THERE IS A FRONT TO THE NORTH WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING SO THIS DEFINITELY SEEMS REASONABLE. PLUS
CLOUD COVER MAY INCREASE IN THE FAR NORTH DURING THE DAY. SO
TEMPERED THE WARMUP AND TENDED TO GO TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
GUIDANCE.
ANOTHER WEAK WIND FIELD IS IN PLACE DURING THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...IT
DOES LOOK LIKE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE/DRAINAGE WINDS DO DEVELOP IN THE
LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT. STILL THE SETUP IN PLACE WOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE AND TRENDED IN THAT
DIRECTION.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH DOES IT WARM
UP AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/PLENTY OF SUN MOVE INTO THE AREA.
DESPITE THIS...STILL RATHER SHARP NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE.
SINCE THERE IS ALSO A LACK OF CROSS MOUNTAIN COMPONENT ON THE MID
LEVEL WINDS...DO NOT EXPECT A STRONG LEE TROUGH TO DEVELOP. IN
FACT...WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT THE SURFACE WIND FIELD IS
ACTUALLY RESPONDING LIKE ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY IS MOVING THROUGH
WITH AN UNFAVORABLE SURFACE WIND FIELD IN PLACE. SO BACKED OFF A
LITTLE ON THE WARMING WITH THE NWP LOOKING A LITTLE WARM IN THIS
PATTERN. WENT CLOSER TO THE 2 METER AND BIAS ADJUSTMENT ON THE 850
MB TEMPERATURE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015
THE 500MB RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD AND FLATTEN
THUS LEADING TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND NEARLY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS GOING INTO FRIDAY. STRONG 500MB FLOW ACROSS THE
ROCKIES ON SATURDAY LEADS TO THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH FAVORING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE TROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH THE GFS BEING QUITE A
BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH AS IT PROGRESSES
EASTWARD.
I WENT WITH MORE OF A GFS SOLUTION IN THE 4 TO 7 DAY BASED ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROUGH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
TO THE WEST OF THE CWA AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THIS TROUGH. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 521 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015
FOR KGLD...THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. AFTER THAT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. FROM 16Z TO 23Z THERE WILL BE GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 22 KNOTS.
FOR KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. FROM
18Z TO 23Z...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 17 KNOTS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...TML
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
524 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE HOW FAST PRECIPITATION ENDS AND CLEARING
BEGINS TODAY AND ITS AFFECTS ON THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...LOW
TEMPERATURES THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
TUESDAY...AND HOW MUCH THE WARMUP WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SATELLITE SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WITH AMPLIFIED FLOW
EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
AT JET LEVEL...ALL THE MODELS WERE CLOSE ON THE JET WITH THE NAM AND
THE ECMWF DOING A LITTLE BETTER. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS NOT TOO BAD
AT MID LEVELS WITH THE GFS...CANADIAN AND UKMET DOING THE BEST. THE
NAM WAS DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE
GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE CANADIAN AND NAM ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...RAINFALL HAS ALREADY ENDED OVER THE NORTHEAST TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA AS THE LAST BAND OF RAINFALL CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTH AND WEST. THIS IS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. MOST MODEL OUTPUT NO
MATTER HOW WELL IT IS CURRENTLY DOING ON THE POSITION OF THE
RAINFALL...ENDS THE RAINFALL BY 18Z. THE HRRR IS DOING THE BEST ON
ITS POSITION AT THIS TIME. BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND
HRRR...WILL LOWER THE POPS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY AND HAVE
THEM END BY LATE IN THE MORNING. WILL END UP HAVING SOME KIND OF
FOG MENTION THROUGH MID MORNING DUE TO THE CLEARING...MOIST LOW
LEVELS AND CONTINUED UPSLOPE WINDS.
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE DAY AND THERE IS A LOT DRIER AIR FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH MID
LEVELS THAT WILL BE PULLED INTO THE AREA. SO AS THE LAST FEW DAYS
HAS SHOWN...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA SHOULD BE THE WARMEST
SINCE IT CLEAR THE FIRST AND MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
GOING MAXES.
MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS...LIGHTER WINDS...AND LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR TONIGHT. CURRENT GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE WARMER
THAN YESTERDAYS. MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST HALF WILL HAVE WET GROUND AND
THAT MAYBE COULD MODERATE THE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN PLACE AND WENT WITH THE
COOLEST GUIDANCE.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF NORTHERN JET IS
APPROACHING DURING THE DAY AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA WILL BE AFFECTED OR BE CLOSE TO BE AFFECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS JET MOVES ACROSS DURING THE NIGHT. NEW MODEL OUTPUT
KEEPS ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL NORTH OF OUR AREA. THERE IS SOME
COLD AIR ALOFT WITH A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
MOVING THROUGH AT THE SAME TIME AS THE JET LIFT.
THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING IN. GOOD
LAPSE RATES ARE IN PLACE AS WELL. SAME PROBLEM AS THE DAY SHIFT
POINTED OUT YESTERDAY...LACK OF MOISTURE/DEEP DRY LAYER...ARE
STILL IN PLACE. THERE IS ENOUGH THERE THAT CONTINUING THE
SPRINKLES THE DAY SHIFT PUT IN LOOKS REASONABLE.
AS STATED ABOVE THERE LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE ANOTHER PRESSURE OR
COLD SURGE THAT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUING. CURRENTLY THERE IS A FRONT TO THE NORTH WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING SO THIS DEFINITELY SEEMS REASONABLE. PLUS
CLOUD COVER MAY INCREASE IN THE FAR NORTH DURING THE DAY. SO
TEMPERED THE WARMUP AND TENDED TO GO TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
GUIDANCE.
ANOTHER WEAK WIND FIELD IS IN PLACE DURING THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...IT
DOES LOOK LIKE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE/DRAINAGE WINDS DO DEVELOP IN THE
LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT. STILL THE SETUP IN PLACE WOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE AND TRENDED IN THAT
DIRECTION.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH DOES IT WARM
UP AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/PLENTY OF SUN MOVE INTO THE AREA.
DESPITE THIS...STILL RATHER SHARP NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE.
SINCE THERE IS ALSO A LACK OF CROSS MOUNTAIN COMPONENT ON THE MID
LEVEL WINDS...DO NOT EXPECT A STRONG LEE TROUGH TO DEVELOP. IN
FACT...WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT THE SURFACE WIND FIELD IS
ACTUALLY RESPONDING LIKE ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY IS MOVING THROUGH
WITH AN UNFAVORABLE SURFACE WIND FIELD IN PLACE. SO BACKED OFF A
LITTLE ON THE WARMING WITH THE NWP LOOKING A LITTLE WARM IN THIS
PATTERN. WENT CLOSER TO THE 2 METER AND BIAS ADJUSTMENT ON THE 850
MB TEMPERATURE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015
THE 500MB RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD AND FLATTEN
THUS LEADING TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND NEARLY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS GOING INTO FRIDAY. STRONG 500MB FLOW ACROSS THE
ROCKIES ON SATURDAY LEADS TO THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH FAVORING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE TROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH THE GFS BEING QUITE A
BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH AS IT PROGRESSES
EASTWARD.
I WENT WITH MORE OF A GFS SOLUTION IN THE 4 TO 7 DAY BASED ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROUGH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
TO THE WEST OF THE CWA AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THIS TROUGH. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 521 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015
FOR KGLD...THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. AFTER THAT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. FROM 16Z TO 23Z THERE WILL BE GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 22 KNOTS.
FOR KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. FROM
18Z TO 23Z...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 17 KNOTS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...TML
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
355 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE HOW FAST PRECIPITATION ENDS AND CLEARING
BEGINS TODAY AND ITS AFFECTS ON THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...LOW
TEMPERATURES THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
TUESDAY...AND HOW MUCH THE WARMUP WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SATELLITE SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WITH AMPLIFIED FLOW
EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
AT JET LEVEL...ALL THE MODELS WERE CLOSE ON THE JET WITH THE NAM AND
THE ECMWF DOING A LITTLE BETTER. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS NOT TOO BAD
AT MID LEVELS WITH THE GFS...CANADIAN AND UKMET DOING THE BEST. THE
NAM WAS DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE
GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE CANADIAN AND NAM ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...RAINFALL HAS ALREADY ENDED OVER THE NORTHEAST TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA AS THE LAST BAND OF RAINFALL CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTH AND WEST. THIS IS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. MOST MODEL OUTPUT NO
MATTER HOW WELL IT IS CURRENTLY DOING ON THE POSITION OF THE
RAINFALL...ENDS THE RAINFALL BY 18Z. THE HRRR IS DOING THE BEST ON
ITS POSITION AT THIS TIME. BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND
HRRR...WILL LOWER THE POPS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY AND HAVE
THEM END BY LATE IN THE MORNING. WILL END UP HAVING SOME KIND OF
FOG MENTION THROUGH MID MORNING DUE TO THE CLEARING...MOIST LOW
LEVELS AND CONTINUED UPSLOPE WINDS.
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE DAY AND THERE IS A LOT DRIER AIR FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH MID
LEVELS THAT WILL BE PULLED INTO THE AREA. SO AS THE LAST FEW DAYS
HAS SHOWN...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA SHOULD BE THE WARMEST
SINCE IT CLEAR THE FIRST AND MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
GOING MAXES.
MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS...LIGHTER WINDS...AND LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR TONIGHT. CURRENT GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE WARMER
THAN YESTERDAYS. MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST HALF WILL HAVE WET GROUND AND
THAT MAYBE COULD MODERATE THE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN PLACE AND WENT WITH THE
COOLEST GUIDANCE.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF NORTHERN JET IS
APPROACHING DURING THE DAY AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA WILL BE AFFECTED OR BE CLOSE TO BE AFFECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS JET MOVES ACROSS DURING THE NIGHT. NEW MODEL OUTPUT
KEEPS ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL NORTH OF OUR AREA. THERE IS SOME
COLD AIR ALOFT WITH A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
MOVING THROUGH AT THE SAME TIME AS THE JET LIFT.
THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING IN. GOOD
LAPSE RATES ARE IN PLACE AS WELL. SAME PROBLEM AS THE DAY SHIFT
POINTED OUT YESTERDAY...LACK OF MOISTURE/DEEP DRY LAYER...ARE
STILL IN PLACE. THERE IS ENOUGH THERE THAT CONTINUING THE
SPRINKLES THE DAY SHIFT PUT IN LOOKS REASONABLE.
AS STATED ABOVE THERE LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE ANOTHER PRESSURE OR
COLD SURGE THAT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUING. CURRENTLY THERE IS A FRONT TO THE NORTH WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING SO THIS DEFINITELY SEEMS REASONABLE. PLUS
CLOUD COVER MAY INCREASE IN THE FAR NORTH DURING THE DAY. SO
TEMPERED THE WARMUP AND TENDED TO GO TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
GUIDANCE.
ANOTHER WEAK WIND FIELD IS IN PLACE DURING THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...IT
DOES LOOK LIKE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE/DRAINAGE WINDS DO DEVELOP IN THE
LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT. STILL THE SETUP IN PLACE WOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE AND TRENDED IN THAT
DIRECTION.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH DOES IT WARM
UP AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/PLENTY OF SUN MOVE INTO THE AREA.
DESPITE THIS...STILL RATHER SHARP NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE.
SINCE THERE IS ALSO A LACK OF CROSS MOUNTAIN COMPONENT ON THE MID
LEVEL WINDS...DO NOT EXPECT A STRONG LEE TROUGH TO DEVELOP. IN
FACT...WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT THE SURFACE WIND FIELD IS
ACTUALLY RESPONDING LIKE ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY IS MOVING THROUGH
WITH AN UNFAVORABLE SURFACE WIND FIELD IN PLACE. SO BACKED OFF A
LITTLE ON THE WARMING WITH THE NWP LOOKING A LITTLE WARM IN THIS
PATTERN. WENT CLOSER TO THE 2 METER AND BIAS ADJUSTMENT ON THE 850
MB TEMPERATURE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015
THE 500MB RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD AND FLATTEN
THUS LEADING TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND NEARLY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS GOING INTO FRIDAY. STRONG 500MB FLOW ACROSS THE
ROCKIES ON SATURDAY LEADS TO THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH FAVORING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE TROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH THE GFS BEING QUITE A
BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH AS IT PROGRESSES
EASTWARD.
I WENT WITH MORE OF A GFS SOLUTION IN THE 4 TO 7 DAY BASED ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROUGH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
TO THE WEST OF THE CWA AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THIS TROUGH. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
KGLD...MVFR CIGS FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 15Z. WINDS FROM THE
EAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 10KTS. FROM 16Z-22Z SOME CU BASED
AROUND 5K FT EXPECTED WITH CIRRUS OVERHEAD FROM AN UPPER LOW TO
THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. WINDS GUSTING TOWARD 20KTS FROM THE
NORTHEAST. 23Z-02Z WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST NEAR 11KTS THEN
VARIABLE FROM 03Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED.
KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. FROM TAF
ISSUANCE THROUGH 09Z CIGS JUST ABOVE VFR RANGE AND COULD DIP TO
MVFR CATEGORY FOR THE FIRST 3 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS FROM
THE NORTHEAST A BIT OVER 5KTS. 10Z-17Z A FEW LOW AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST NEAR 5KTS.
18Z-20Z GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20KTS EXPECTED FALLING TO 11KTS
AROUND 21Z THEN VARIABLE UNDER 5KTS FROM 03Z THROUGH THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD WITH ONLY SOME MID AND/OR HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...TML
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
423 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND AN UPPER LOW WHICH
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA TODAY. AS ONE OF THESE
DISTURBANCES CROSSES SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATER TODAY THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL IMPROVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AT THIS TIME THE AREA MORE FAVORABLE
FOR THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF A LARNED TO DODGE CITY TO
LIBERAL LINE BASED ON WHERE THE 700MB TO 500MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL
BE LOCATED ALONG WITH THE 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT. PRIOR TO THIS ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE APPEARS TO BE PRESENT
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. GIVEN WHERE THE BETTER DOWNGLIDE WILL BE
EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE LOWERED THE CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF DODGE CITY EARLY
TODAY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...GIVEN SOME BREAKS OF SUN BEING
POSSIBLE BY LATE DAY NORTH OF DODGE CITY WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE
LATEST GUIDANCE GIVEN THE 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z TUESDAY.
FURTHER SOUTH WHERE MORE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH A IMPROVING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FAVORING THE
COOLER 2M NAM TEMPS.
SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA. EVENING
CONVECTION IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL END BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
TUESDAY. HOW FAR TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TONIGHT WILL DEPEND ON HOW
QUICKLY SKIES CLEAR. AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE CURRENT CLEARING
TREND THE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE
MID 30S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS BY 12Z TUESDAY. UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S ARE EXPECTED FURTHER EAST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
SUNNY CONDITIONS AND MARGINALLY BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BE THE
CHARACTER OF THE DAY TUESDAY AS WESTERN KANSAS BECOMES UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF UPPER NW FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING MID
LEVEL LOW FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK MID
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE,
HOWEVER ANY PRECIPITATION OR VIRGA ASSOCIATED WITH IT APPEARS WELL
TO THE NORTH OVER NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KS LATE TUESDAY.
THE NEXT SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURE APPEARS TO BE THE POLAR JET SEGMENT
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS
SYSTEM APPEARS IN THE GFS TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD,
INTERSECTING ENHANCED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE ECMWF, HOWEVER FAR MORE DRY SOLUTION, DEPICTS A SIMILAR MODEL
FEATURE EVOLUTION. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FEATURES A
WARMING TREND TO AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN THE
WEEK AS RIDGING BECOMES THE PRIMARY SENSIBLE WEATHER INFLUENCE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
00Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS, HRRR AND RAP ALL APPEAR TO BE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH IFR CEILINGS AT GCK GRADUALLY IMPROVING INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY BY 09Z. LOW MVFR CEILINGS AT DDC WILL ALSO BE
IMPROVING INTO THE 2000 TO 3000FT AGL RANGE BY 12Z MONDAY AS
ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE AND DRIER AIR DEVELOPS IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
FOG POTENTIAL WILL ALSO ON THE DECREASE BUT PATCHY OF FOG MAY
STILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES AROUND DAYBREAK TO 2-4 MILES.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT
RANGE BY 12Z MONDAY AND THEN CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO AROUND
20 KNOTS BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THE BETTER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL IN THE DDC AND GCK AREAS BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z MONDAY. AFTER 12Z MONDAY THE BETTER FORCING WILL SHIFT
SOUTH OF THESE TERMINALS. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE
DDC AREA WHERE A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY.
CEILINGS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE
DAY. DDC AND GCK IS EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE VFR CATEGORY
BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 54 38 66 41 / 80 30 10 10
GCK 56 35 66 39 / 40 10 10 10
EHA 51 37 63 39 / 90 20 0 0
LBL 49 37 64 40 / 100 40 10 0
HYS 61 38 67 41 / 10 0 10 10
P28 55 42 66 42 / 100 50 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
236 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE HOW FAST PRECIPITATION ENDS AND CLEARING
BEGINS TODAY AND ITS AFFECTS ON THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...LOW
TEMPERATURES THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
TUESDAY...AND HOW MUCH THE WARMUP WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SATELLITE SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WITH AMPLIFIED FLOW
EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
AT JET LEVEL...ALL THE MODELS WERE CLOSE ON THE JET WITH THE NAM AND
THE ECMWF DOING A LITTLE BETTER. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS NOT TOO BAD
AT MID LEVELS WITH THE GFS...CANADIAN AND UKMET DOING THE BEST. THE
NAM WAS DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE
GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE CANADIAN AND NAM ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...RAINFALL HAS ALREADY ENDED OVER THE NORTHEAST TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA AS THE LAST BAND OF RAINFALL CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTH AND WEST. THIS IS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. MOST MODEL OUTPUT NO
MATTER HOW WELL IT IS CURRENTLY DOING ON THE POSITION OF THE
RAINFALL...ENDS THE RAINFALL BY 18Z. THE HRRR IS DOING THE BEST ON
ITS POSITION AT THIS TIME. BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND
HRRR...WILL LOWER THE POPS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY AND HAVE
THEM END BY LATE IN THE MORNING. WILL END UP HAVING SOME KIND OF
FOG MENTION THROUGH MID MORNING DUE TO THE CLEARING...MOIST LOW
LEVELS AND CONTINUED UPSLOPE WINDS.
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE DAY AND THERE IS A LOT DRIER AIR FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH MID
LEVELS THAT WILL BE PULLED INTO THE AREA. SO AS THE LAST FEW DAYS
HAS SHOWN...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA SHOULD BE THE WARMEST
SINCE IT CLEAR THE FIRST AND MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
GOING MAXES.
MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS...LIGHTER WINDS...AND LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR TONIGHT. CURRENT GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE WARMER
THAN YESTERDAYS. MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST HALF WILL HAVE WET GROUND AND
THAT MAYBE COULD MODERATE THE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN PLACE AND WENT WITH THE
COOLEST GUIDANCE.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF NORTHERN JET IS
APPROACHING DURING THE DAY AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA WILL BE AFFECTED OR BE CLOSE TO BE AFFECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS JET MOVES ACROSS DURING THE NIGHT. NEW MODEL OUTPUT
KEEPS ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL NORTH OF OUR AREA. THERE IS SOME
COLD AIR ALOFT WITH A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
MOVING THROUGH AT THE SAME TIME AS THE JET LIFT.
THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING IN. GOOD
LAPSE RATES ARE IN PLACE AS WELL. SAME PROBLEM AS THE DAY SHIFT
POINTED OUT YESTERDAY...LACK OF MOISTURE/DEEP DRY LAYER...ARE
STILL IN PLACE. THERE IS ENOUGH THERE THAT CONTINUING THE
SPRINKLES THE DAY SHIFT PUT IN LOOKS REASONABLE.
AS STATED ABOVE THERE LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE ANOTHER PRESSURE OR
COLD SURGE THAT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUING. CURRENTLY THERE IS A FRONT TO THE NORTH WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING SO THIS DEFINITELY SEEMS REASONABLE. PLUS
CLOUD COVER MAY INCREASE IN THE FAR NORTH DURING THE DAY. SO
TEMPERED THE WARMUP AND TENDED TO GO TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
GUIDANCE.
ANOTHER WEAK WIND FIELD IS IN PLACE DURING THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...IT
DOES LOOK LIKE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE/DRAINAGE WINDS DO DEVELOP IN THE
LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT. STILL THE SETUP IN PLACE WOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE AND TRENDED IN THAT
DIRECTION.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH DOES IT WARM
UP AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/PLENTY OF SUN MOVE INTO THE AREA.
DESPITE THIS...STILL RATHER SHARP NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE.
SINCE THERE IS ALSO A LACK OF CROSS MOUNTAIN COMPONENT ON THE MID
LEVEL WINDS...DO NOT EXPECT A STRONG LEE TROUGH TO DEVELOP. IN
FACT...WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT THE SURFACE WIND FIELD IS
ACTUALLY RESPONDING LIKE ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY IS MOVING THROUGH
WITH AN UNFAVORABLE SURFACE WIND FIELD IN PLACE. SO BACKED OFF A
LITTLE ON THE WARMING WITH THE NWP LOOKING A LITTLE WARM IN THIS
PATTERN. WENT CLOSER TO THE 2 METER AND BIAS ADJUSTMENT ON THE 850
MB TEMPERATURE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
MONDAY NIGHT...OVERALL MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO SPEED UP EXIT OF
PRECIP WITH DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH AXIS OF
SUBSIDENCE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND H5 TROUGH AXIS MOVING OVER THE CWA
CONDITIONS. WHILE I CONSIDERED HOLDING ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION 00-
03Z...WITH CURRENT TREND WITH GUIDANCE DRY I DECIDED TO KEEP THIS
OUT. CLEARING SKIES...LOW TD VALUES...LIGHT WINDS...AND COOL AIR
MASS WILL ALLOW FOR A FROST TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE CWA.
ACTUALLY WITH SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING MID TO UPPER 20 TDS IN THE WEST A
HARD FREEZE COULDNT BE RULED OUT. CLIMATOLOGICAL LAST HARD FREEZE IS
THE FIRST WEEK OF MAY...SO WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF ON FROST/FREEZE
HIGHLIGHTS FOR NOW...THOUGH IT IS GETTING CLOSE.
TUESDAY...SECONDARY H3 JET ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION WITH MID LEVEL
MOISTURE LIMITED. GFS IS MORE BULLISH ON PRODUCING LIGHT QPF ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND
CURRENT NAM...THOUGH 12Z ECMWF HAS COME IN LINE WITH A WEAK PRECIP
SIGNAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERING THE LIMITED MOISTURE IN
PLACE...I DECIDED TO LIMIT MENTION TO SPRINKLES FOR NOW AS
CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE IS NOT HIGH.
TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...H5 RIDGE STILL PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT TO WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW
(DEPENDING ON MODEL) AS TROUGH BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN US.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. INITIALLY PATTERN WILL FAVOR DRY CONDITIONS...HOWEVER AS
RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND A MORE PROGRESSIVE ZONAL PATTERN
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES MAY BEGIN TO ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS COULD FAVOR
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
MEAN WIND FAVORING A PROGRESSION OF THIS ACTIVITY FROM THE WEST TO
EAST. TIMING/EVOLUTION OF THESE FEATURES IS STILL IN QUESTION AT
THIS RANGE...ALONG WITH POSITION OF SURFACE FEATURES THAT COULD
SERVE TO AID AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. I ADJUSTED
CONSENSUS 20/30 POPS TO FAVOR AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR NOW TO
REFLECT PERIOD OF PEAK INSTABILITY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
KGLD...MVFR CIGS FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 15Z. WINDS FROM THE
EAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 10KTS. FROM 16Z-22Z SOME CU BASED
AROUND 5K FT EXPECTED WITH CIRRUS OVERHEAD FROM AN UPPER LOW TO
THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. WINDS GUSTING TOWARD 20KTS FROM THE
NORTHEAST. 23Z-02Z WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST NEAR 11KTS THEN
VARIABLE FROM 03Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED.
KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. FROM TAF
ISSUANCE THROUGH 09Z CIGS JUST ABOVE VFR RANGE AND COULD DIP TO
MVFR CATEGORY FOR THE FIRST 3 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS FROM
THE NORTHEAST A BIT OVER 5KTS. 10Z-17Z A FEW LOW AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST NEAR 5KTS.
18Z-20Z GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20KTS EXPECTED FALLING TO 11KTS
AROUND 21Z THEN VARIABLE UNDER 5KTS FROM 03Z THROUGH THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD WITH ONLY SOME MID AND/OR HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
123 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND AN UPPER LOW WHICH
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA TODAY. AS ONE OF THESE
DISTURBANCES CROSSES SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATER TODAY THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL IMPROVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AT THIS TIME THE AREA MORE FAVORABLE
FOR THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF A LARNED TO DODGE CITY TO
LIBERAL LINE BASED ON WHERE THE 700MB TO 500MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL
BE LOCATED ALONG WITH THE 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT. PRIOR TO THIS ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE APPEARS TO BE PRESENT
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. GIVEN WHERE THE BETTER DOWNGLIDE WILL BE
EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE LOWERED THE CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF DODGE CITY EARLY
TODAY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...GIVEN SOME BREAKS OF SUN BEING
POSSIBLE BY LATE DAY NORTH OF DODGE CITY WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE
LATEST GUIDANCE GIVEN THE 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z TUESDAY.
FURTHER SOUTH WHERE MORE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH A IMPROVING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FAVORING THE
COOLER 2M NAM TEMPS.
SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA. EVENING
CONVECTION IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL END BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
TUESDAY. HOW FAR TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TONIGHT WILL DEPEND ON HOW
QUICKLY SKIES CLEAR. AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE CURRENT CLEARING
TREND THE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE
MID 30S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS BY 12Z TUESDAY. UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S ARE EXPECTED FURTHER EAST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING EAST AND SOUTH OF WESTERN KANSAS. WILL
MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE FOR LINGERING SHOWERS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF
DODGE CITY ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS MODEL TRENDS
CONTINUE WITH LESSER CHANCES OVER WESTERN KANSAS. THE GFS IS THE
FARTHEST NORTH WITH PRECIP, WHILE THE OTHER MODELS HAVE IT MORE
SOUTH. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
FOR THE PERIOD OF WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY, A DRY PERIOD IS FORECAST AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS IN CONTROL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 40S WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY MORNING, THEN WARM TO AROUND
50 ON FRIDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HIGHS WARM FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AND THE UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY.
FOR THE NEXT WEEKEND PERIOD, INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN THE FORECAST INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, AS GULF
MOISTURE RETURNS. LOWS WILL BE MILD AN IN THE 50S, WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS AROUND 80.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
00Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS, HRRR AND RAP ALL APPEAR TO BE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH IFR CEILINGS AT GCK GRADUALLY IMPROVING INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY BY 09Z. LOW MVFR CEILINGS AT DDC WILL ALSO BE
IMPROVING INTO THE 2000 TO 3000FT AGL RANGE BY 12Z MONDAY AS
ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE AND DRIER AIR DEVELOPS IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
FOG POTENTIAL WILL ALSO ON THE DECREASE BUT PATCHY OF FOG MAY
STILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES AROUND DAYBREAK TO 2-4 MILES.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT
RANGE BY 12Z MONDAY AND THEN CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO AROUND
20 KNOTS BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THE BETTER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL IN THE DDC AND GCK AREAS BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z MONDAY. AFTER 12Z MONDAY THE BETTER FORCING WILL SHIFT
SOUTH OF THESE TERMINALS. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE
DDC AREA WHERE A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY.
CEILINGS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE
DAY. DDC AND GCK IS EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE VFR CATEGORY
BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 54 38 68 42 / 70 30 10 10
GCK 55 35 68 41 / 50 10 10 10
EHA 51 37 65 40 / 90 10 0 0
LBL 49 39 67 41 / 90 40 10 10
HYS 60 40 68 42 / 10 10 10 10
P28 55 42 66 43 / 90 50 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1235 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
AT 00Z MONDAY A 500MB LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NEW MEXICO WITH SEVERAL
SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EVIDENT FROM SATELLITE LOOP
ROTATING AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. NORTHEAST OF THIS UPPER
LOW A 700MB DEFORMATION ZONE EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO TO
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. SCATTERED CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
700MB DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS BASE ON 05Z REGIONAL
RADAR LOOP. ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT WAS EVIDENT AT THE 850MB
LEVEL ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY MONDAY MORNING WHILE
CLOSING OFF THEN SLOWING DOWN. MOISTURE THAT WAS INITIALLY SHUNTED
TO THE GULF COAST HAS PROGRESSED NORTHWESTWARD AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS MAY CUT OFF THE LOW
LEVEL MOIST INFLOW INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS THE SYSTEM PASSES TO
THE SOUTH. RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE STILL
MAINTAINED IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY ALONG THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE,
WITH LESSER CHANCES FARTHER NORTH. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE
RAIN MAY STAY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY TONIGHT GIVEN THE CLOUD
COVER, WITH A DROP OF ONLY A FEW DEGREES. IF THE RAIN SHIELD STAYS
IN OKLAHOMA ON MONDAY THEN TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY RISE INTO THE
LOWER 60S FROM DODGE CITY NORTHWARD IF THE SUN MAKES AN
APPEARANCE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING EAST AND SOUTH OF WESTERN KANSAS. WILL
MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE FOR LINGERING SHOWERS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF
DODGE CITY ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS MODEL TRENDS
CONTINUE WITH LESSER CHANCES OVER WESTERN KANSAS. THE GFS IS THE
FARTHEST NORTH WITH PRECIP, WHILE THE OTHER MODELS HAVE IT MORE
SOUTH. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
FOR THE PERIOD OF WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY, A DRY PERIOD IS FORECAST AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS IN CONTROL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 40S WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY MORNING, THEN WARM TO AROUND
50 ON FRIDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HIGHS WARM FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AND THE UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY.
FOR THE NEXT WEEKEND PERIOD, INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN THE FORECAST INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, AS GULF
MOISTURE RETURNS. LOWS WILL BE MILD AN IN THE 50S, WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS AROUND 80.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
00Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS, HRRR AND RAP ALL APPEAR TO BE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH IFR CEILINGS AT GCK GRADUALLY IMPROVING INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY BY 09Z. LOW MVFR CEILINGS AT DDC WILL ALSO BE
IMPROVING INTO THE 2000 TO 3000FT AGL RANGE BY 12Z MONDAY AS
ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE AND DRIER AIR DEVELOPS IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
FOG POTENTIAL WILL ALSO ON THE DECREASE BUT PATCHY OF FOG MAY
STILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES AROUND DAYBREAK TO 2-4 MILES.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT
RANGE BY 12Z MONDAY AND THEN CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO AROUND
20 KNOTS BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THE BETTER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL IN THE DDC AND GCK AREAS BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z MONDAY. AFTER 12Z MONDAY THE BETTER FORCING WILL SHIFT
SOUTH OF THESE TERMINALS. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE
DDC AREA WHERE A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY.
CEILINGS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE
DAY. DDC AND GCK IS EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE VFR CATEGORY
BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 38 68 42 71 / 30 10 10 0
GCK 35 68 41 72 / 10 10 10 0
EHA 37 65 40 72 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 39 67 41 72 / 40 10 10 0
HYS 40 68 42 72 / 10 10 10 0
P28 42 66 43 72 / 50 10 10 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
104 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015
.AVIATION...
AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE 27/18Z TAF PERIOD INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS
AND PERIODS OF IFR. CONVECTION ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION HAD
BECOME ISOLATED IN COVERAGE AT MIDDAY. EXPECT THIS TO INCREASE
AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH NUMEROUS TSTMS POSSIBLE BY LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND WIND
GUST IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS. IFR
CIGS WILL RETURN TONIGHT...BECOMING WIDESPREAD AFTER 06Z. PERIODS
OF LIGHT RAIN AND FOG WILL ALSO BRING VSBYS BETWEEN 1 AND 3 MILES
AT TIMES. SURFACE WIND EAST TO NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. /14/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE LAST OF THE EARLY MORNING QLCS HAS FINALLY MOVED EWD...LEAVING
ONLY SOME SCT SHWRS/TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE REGION. HAVE CANCELLED
TORNADO WATCH 125 AS A RESULT. LOOKS AS IF WE WILL GET A BREAK
BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION MOVES IN FROM THE W LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE TAYLORED POPS AROUND THIS...WHICH MEANT LOWERING
POPS FOR OUR ERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS/DEW POINTS LOOK
REASONABLE...SO WILL LET THEM RIDE AS IS. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE
OUT SHORTLY. /12/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 733 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE NORTHEAST TEXAS COUNTIES AND
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA PARISHES IN TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 125.
TORNADO WATCH NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR ANY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 126 CONTINUED IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT.
ALSO LOWERED THE RAIN CHANCES AND QPF AMOUNTS FOR THOSE AREAS THAT
LOOKED TO BE DECREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITIES OF
RAIN. /06/
DISCUSSION...
RAIN HAS DECREASED OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHEAST
TEXAS AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND INVERTED TROUGH.
LATER TODAY HRRR MODEL DATA SHOWS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO
PARTS OF EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WHICH MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. ALSO ACROSS REMAINING PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO OTHER SECTIONS OF ARKANSAS...AND NORTH LOUISIANA. /06/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 53 63 46 71 / 80 60 10 10
MLU 56 64 48 70 / 80 70 30 10
DEQ 49 60 42 71 / 80 60 10 10
TXK 51 61 46 70 / 80 60 10 10
ELD 51 59 44 70 / 80 70 30 10
TYR 54 64 47 71 / 80 40 10 0
GGG 53 63 48 71 / 80 40 10 10
LFK 59 68 50 73 / 80 40 10 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1008 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
.DISCUSSION...
THE LAST OF THE EARLY MORNING QLCS HAS FINALLY MOVED EWD...LEAVING
ONLY SOME SCT SHWRS/TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE REGION. HAVE CANCELLED
TORNADO WATCH 125 AS A RESULT. LOOKS AS IF WE WILL GET A BREAK
BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION MOVES IN FROM THE W LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE TAYLORED POPS AROUND THIS...WHICH MEANT LOWERING
POPS FOR OUR ERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS/DEW POINTS LOOK
REASONABLE...SO WILL LET THEM RIDE AS IS. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE
OUT SHORTLY. /12/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 810 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/
AVIATION...
FOR THE 27/12Z TAFS...A WEAKENING CONVECTIVE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST ACROSS REGION...LEAVING
BEHIND SEVERAL CATEGORIES OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT OUR TAF SITES.
THE CURRENT BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION IS ALONG THE TX/LA
BORDER. CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS AT KMLU/KELD...WILL DIMINISH TO
MVFR/IFR AS SHWRS/TSTMS MOVE IN OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL BEHIND THE CONVECTION...AS
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER ACROSS THE REGION. CONVECTION
SHOULD WANE SOMEWHAT AFTER EXITING KELD/KMLU LATER THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER... ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL TRIGGER NEW
CONVECTION LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH SHWRS AND TSTMS RETURNING
FOR MOST SITES NEAR 28/00Z AND LATER. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
E/NELY TODAY...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN/AROUND CONVECTION. /20/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 733 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE NORTHEAST TEXAS COUNTIES AND
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA PARISHES IN TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 125.
TORNADO WATCH NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR ANY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 126 CONTINUED IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT.
ALSO LOWERED THE RAIN CHANCES AND QPF AMOUNTS FOR THOSE AREAS THAT
LOOKED TO BE DECREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITIES OF
RAIN. /06/
DISCUSSION...
RAIN HAS DECREASED OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHEAST
TEXAS AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND INVERTED TROUGH.
LATER TODAY HRRR MODEL DATA SHOWS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO
PARTS OF EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WHICH MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. ALSO ACROSS REMAINING PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO OTHER SECTIONS OF ARKANSAS...AND NORTH LOUISIANA. /06/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 69 53 63 46 / 50 80 60 10
MLU 68 56 64 48 / 50 80 70 30
DEQ 65 49 60 42 / 50 80 60 10
TXK 66 51 61 46 / 50 80 60 10
ELD 66 51 59 44 / 50 80 70 30
TYR 71 54 64 47 / 80 80 40 10
GGG 71 53 63 48 / 50 80 40 10
LFK 73 59 68 50 / 50 80 40 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
810 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 27/12Z TAFS...A WEAKENING CONVECTIVE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST ACROSS REGION...LEAVING
BEHIND SEVERAL CATEGORIES OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT OUR TAF SITES.
THE CURRENT BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION IS ALONG THE TX/LA
BORDER. CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS AT KMLU/KELD...WILL DIMINISH TO
MVFR/IFR AS SHWRS/TSTMS MOVE IN OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL BEHIND THE CONVECTION...AS
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER ACROSS THE REGION. CONVECTION
SHOULD WANE SOMEWHAT AFTER EXITING KELD/KMLU LATER THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER... ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL TRIGGER NEW
CONVECTION LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH SHWRS AND TSTMS RETURNING
FOR MOST SITES NEAR 28/00Z AND LATER. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
E/NELY TODAY...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN/AROUND CONVECTION. /20/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 733 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE NORTHEAST TEXAS COUNTIES AND
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA PARISHES IN TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 125.
TORNADO WATCH NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR ANY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 126 CONTINUED IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT.
ALSO LOWERED THE RAIN CHANCES AND QPF AMOUNTS FOR THOSE AREAS THAT
LOOKED TO BE DECREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITIES OF
RAIN. /06/
DISCUSSION...
RAIN HAS DECREASED OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHEAST
TEXAS AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND INVERTED TROUGH.
LATER TODAY HRRR MODEL DATA SHOWS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO
PARTS OF EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WHICH MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. ALSO ACROSS REMAINING PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO OTHER SECTIONS OF ARKANSAS...AND NORTH LOUISIANA. /06/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 69 53 63 46 / 80 80 60 10
MLU 68 56 64 48 / 70 80 70 30
DEQ 65 49 60 42 / 80 80 60 10
TXK 66 51 61 46 / 80 80 60 10
ELD 66 51 59 44 / 70 80 70 30
TYR 71 54 64 47 / 80 80 40 10
GGG 71 53 63 48 / 80 80 40 10
LFK 73 59 68 50 / 80 80 40 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
20
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
733 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE NORTHEAST TEXAS COUNTIES AND
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA PARISHES IN TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 125.
TORNADO WATCH NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR ANY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 126 CONTINUED IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT.
ALSO LOWERED THE RAIN CHANCES AND QPF AMOUNTS FOR THOSE AREAS THAT
LOOKED TO BE DECREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITIES OF
RAIN. /06/
&&
.DISCUSSION...
RAIN HAS DECREASED OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHEAST
TEXAS AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND INVERTED TROUGH.
LATER TODAY HRRR MODEL DATA SHOWS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO
PARTS OF EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WHICH MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. ALSO ACROSS REMAINING PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO OTHER SECTIONS OF ARKANSAS...AND NORTH LOUISIANA. /06/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE 8 COUNTIES AND PARISHES FROM
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 125 ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA...AND TO INCLUDE 4 PARISHES IN A NEW TORNQADO WATCH
NUMBER 126 ACROSS LOWER PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. /06/
DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO
MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF SAN AUGUSTINE AND SABINE COUNTIES IN EAST
TEXAS AND LOWER PARTS OF TOLEDO BEND AND PARTS OF SABINE PARISH IN
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF TORNADO WATCH 125 AND INTO TORNADO WATCH 126 DURING THE
REST OF THE MORNING. /06/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/
DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS SOUTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH
METROPLEX AND REACHED INTO EAST TEXAS NEAR TYLER AND SOUTH OF
LONGVIEW AND ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REACHED TO
THE NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW/S CENTER INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHERN KANSAS. AN OCCULDED FRONT REACHED TO THE NORTHWEST FROM
THE TEXAS LOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TO ANOTHER SMALL SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA...AND A DRY LINE EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO ACROSS WEST TEXAS INTO ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS
NEAR BROWNSVILLE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND PROVIDING COLDER AIR INTO THE FOUR STATE
REGION. ALOFT A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WERE EJECTING AROUND THE
BASE OF A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN PAN HANDLE
AREA OF TEXAS AND MOVING ACROSS THE SURFACE SYSTEMS PROVIDING LIFT
AND MOISTURE ALOFT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
OF WHICH WERE STRONG TO SEVERE...PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LARGE HAIL AND STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS. WITH SUCH A COMPLEX
SYSTEM...MOVMENT OF THE STORMS WERE SLOW AND WILL RESULT IN VERY
HEAVY RAIN SINCE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE FROM NEAR ONE INCH
TO NEAR ONE AND THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS EAST TEXAS INTO
WESTERN LOUISIANA. THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK THE
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS NEAR THE
RED RIVER AND INTO ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA...NUDGING THE
SURFACE LOW/S SOUTH WITH THE COLD FRONT REACHING TO THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AN OCCULUDED FRONT INTO LOWER PARTS OF
THE PAN HANDLE AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE SOUTHWEST
INTO WEST TEXAS AND MEXICO. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A WET
PERIOD FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THE
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SHIFTINTG INTO NORTHWEST
MISSSISSIPPI...WESTERN TENNESSEE WITH ITS TRAILING TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE SHOWERS OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH THE RAIN ENDING BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMAINTE THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE EATERN STATES BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRUSH JUST
EAST OF OUR REGION AFFECTING THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS AND
THEN INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 69 53 63 46 / 80 80 60 10
MLU 68 56 64 48 / 70 80 70 30
DEQ 65 49 60 42 / 80 80 60 10
TXK 66 51 61 46 / 80 80 60 10
ELD 66 51 59 44 / 70 80 70 30
TYR 71 54 64 47 / 80 80 40 10
GGG 71 53 63 48 / 80 80 40 10
LFK 73 59 68 50 / 80 80 40 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
06
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
730 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SPLITTING WITH ONE SHORTWAVE DIVING SE THROUGH CENTRAL MN AND
ANOTHER MORE SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST THROUGH NRN MN AS IT
APPROACHES LAKE SUPERIOR. THE ENERGY SPLIT RESULTS IN WEAKENING
DYNAMICS OUT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS DEPICTED BY WEAKENING MID-
LVL Q-VECT CONVERGENCE. AND THIS PARTLY EXPLAINS WHY LINE OF SHRA
APPROACHING FM THE WEST IS ALSO WEAKENING AND BREAKING APART AS
NOTED ON REGIONAL RADAR LOOP.
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM MN IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. MODEL Q-VECT CONV INDICATES BEST Q-VECT CONV
SPLITTING NORTH AND SOUTH OF CWA SO WOULD EXPECT WEAKENING TREND TO
CONTINUE WITH APPROACHING LINE OF SHRA THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE DRY
FCST TO CONTINUE ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING NW ONTARIO WL THEN BEGIN DIGGING MORE
SHARPLY TO THE S TONIGHT WITH MODELS SUGGESTING A MID LEVEL LOW
BEGINNING TO CLOSE OFF JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT AN EXPANSION OF PCPN N AND E OF LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT...CLOSER TO GREATEST HEIGHT FALLS. PCPN MAY TRY TO DEVELOP S
INTO ERN UPPER MI...BUT LACK OF DEEP FORCING SUGGESTS MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE THRU THE NIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
30S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
WEDNESDAY...CLOSED LOW AND ASSOC MID-LVL TROF CONTINUES TO DESCEND
SOUTH OVER ERN UPPER MI. 12Z NAM SOUNDING FOR KERY SHOWS SHALLOW LOW-
LVL MOISTURE EXTENDING TO 7-8 KFT BUT REMAINING BELOW -10C ISOTHERM.
WOULD EXPECT ONLY SPRINKLES AT BEST FOR ERN COUNTIES (POSSIBLY AIDED
BY UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW) AS BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING/Q-VECT CONV AND
DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS EAST OF FCST AREA. N WINDS OF 10-15MPH
GUSTING TO 20MPH WILL KEEP LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE LOCATIONS COOL
WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE 40S. FARTHER INLAND HIGHS COULD
REACH INTO THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
OVERALL...LITTLE CHANGES IN THE FORECAST THOUGHTS OVER THE LAST
24HRS...WITH THE REGION SEEING LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH SUNDAY AND A TRANSITION TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THIS
TRANSITION WILL BE LED BY AN UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER WESTERN CANADA. THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA UNDER
ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES AND
SURFACE TROUGHS LEADING TO LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
BEFORE THAT UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT...THE
START OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL SEE A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE 700-500MB LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN AND SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TO THE EAST OF A LINE FROM MUNISING TO MANISTIQUE. IT DID APPEAR
THAT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH NORTHERLY FLOW UPSLOPE HELP TO PRODUCE A
FEW SHOWERS/DRIZZLE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL (NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE
CRYSTALS AND SNOW)...SO DID ADD A MENTION OF RAIN TO THAT AREA FOR
WED NIGHT INTO THURS MORNING. THE DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY MOVE
SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...ALLOWING THE UPPER
RIDGE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN CANADA. THAT WILL LEAD TO DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO THE AREA AND IN TURN DECREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO
EAST ON THURSDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO STILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH WITH THE COOL AIR COMING OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR.
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A NICE START TO THE DAY IN THE U.P. WITH SUNNY
CONDITIONS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S. THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE (SLIDING EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED IN WESTERN
CANADA WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN IN THE AFTERNOON AND
THEN THE REST OF THE CWA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. LIKE THE SHORTWAVE AND FRONT
THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...IT
WILL BE RUNNING INTO EXISTING DRY AIR AND ALSO BECOMING SHEARED OUT.
THUS...EXPECT THE SYSTEM/PRECIPITATION TO DIMINISH AS IT SHIFTS INTO
THE WESTERN U.P. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN DIMINISHING AS IT SHIFTS EAST OVER
THE REST OF THE CWA IN THE EVENING.
BEHIND THAT DISTURBANCE...ZONAL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHERN CONSUS AND EXPECT THAT TO LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT (OVER
THE LAST 6-8 RUNS) WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ON
SATURDAY AT KSAW/KIWD/KIMT AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER FOR SUNDAY.
THUS...WILL TREND THEIR FORECASTS UP TOWARDS THAT IDEA FOR BOTH OF
THOSE DAYS. WITH WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT...SHOULD SEE LAKE BREEZES
DEVELOP ON SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON A DISTURBANCE
FORECAST TO TRACK EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON SATURDAY. AT
THIS POINT...IT LOOKS TO STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT THERE
HAVE BEEN SOME INDICATIONS THAT IT MAY SLIDE NORTH AND AFFECT THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE TO THE EAST
WILL LEAD TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY.
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL COME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SHIFTS EAST
AND INTERACTS WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. WILL FOCUS ON THIS TIME FOR THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES AND TREND POPS UP BEFORE DIMINISHING THEM ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE WAVES DEPART. STILL COULD SEE SOME SHOWER LINGERING
INTO MONDAY NIGHT OR EVEN TUESDAY MORNING DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS DEPARTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 729 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
ALTHOUGH A WEAK LOW PRES TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING...DRY AIR WILL PERSIST IN THE LOWER LEVELS...ALLOWING VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTH WINDS WILL
LIKELY GUST OVER 15 KT AT KCMX AND KSAW ON WED AHEAD OF HIGH PRES
BUILDING DOWN FROM HUDSON BAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...UNDER 15KT...AS A VERY WEAK LOW PRES TROF
PASSES THE AREA THIS EVENING. IN ITS WAKE... ANOTHER HIGH PRES WILL
BUILD OVER HUDSON BAY AND EXTEND A RIDGE S INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES
WED/THU. AS THE HIGH BEGINS RIDGING S INTO THE UPPER LAKES LATE
TONIGHT/WED...NNW WINDS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY GUST TO
AROUND 20KT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER THE W. WITH WEAK PRES
GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER LAKES THU THRU SAT...WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT...MOSTLY UNDER 15KT. A LOW PRES TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN BUT IT LOOKS WEAK AS WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BLO
20 KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
341 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO SRN JAMES BAY. TO THE E...A MID
LEVEL LOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES/NRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST EXTENDS BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND WRAPS SOME MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE UPPER LAKES. AS OF 19Z...W EDGE OF THE STRATOCU DECK
FM THIS MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW RUNS FROM ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE FAR
ERN COUNTIES OF UPPER MI. CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED INTO CENTRAL UPPER
MI THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT WITH THE MID-LVL AND SFC HIGH
PRES RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR EXCEPT
PARTLY CLOUDY EAST WHERE THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE FOR CLOUDS ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRES TROUGH AT
LEAST INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TONIGHT TO DROP INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE INTERIOR WEST WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL MAXIMIZED DUE TO CALM WINDS UNDER AXIS OF SFC RIDGE AND PWATS
OF .25 INCH OR LESS. ELSEWHERE MIN TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 30S.
ON TUESDAY...MODELS INDICATE SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NRN
PLAINS BUT SHOW BEST Q-VECT CONV AND MID-LVL MOISTURE ASSOC WITH
SHORTWAVE GENERALLY LIFTING NORTH AND WEST OF UPPER MI. MODELS HINT
THAT PERHAPS THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA COULD SEE SOME
SPRINKLES/-SHRA TUE EVENING. BUT GIVEN THE DRYNESS OF THE AIR MASS
ALREADY IN PLACE WL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FCST THROUGH 00Z WED BUT
REFLECT EXPECTED INCREASE IN MID-LVL CLOUDS ALONG WEAK COLD-FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN GRIDS. HIGH TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST COULD REACH
INTO THE MID 60S...BUT DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS UNDER
WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER (IN THE 50S) ALONG THE
GREAT LAKES AND EAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015
A RIDGE (FROM HIGH PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA) WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES EVEN AS SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
THE FIRST WAVE AND DECAYING COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE CWA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD (TUESDAY NIGHT)...BUT MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIMITED AND THE BEST MID LEVEL FORCING SLIDES TO
THE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AT THIS POINT...DIDN/T FEEL STRONGLY
ENOUGH TO ADD ANY POPS IN FOR THE LAND AREAS (KEPT OVER NRN
LAKE SUPERIOR)...BUT IT MAY BE A SITUATION WHERE WE MIGHT HAVE TO
ADD SOME SPRINKLES TO THE FORECAST OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THAT FIRST WAVE...ANOTHER WAVE (CURRENTLY
ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE IN NORTHERN ALBERTA) WILL DIVE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND AFFECTING THE
EASTERN U.P. ON WEDNESDAY. ONCE AGAIN...WITH LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH...ANY PRECIP WILL BE TIED TO THE MOISTURE INDICATED
BELOW 850MB ON THE MODELS. THERE IS SOME LIFT IN THAT REGION...TIED
TO THE POCKET OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...BUT WOULDN/T
EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN CLOUDS AND A FEW SPRINKLES. WITH THIS WAVE
LOOKING MUCH STRONGER THAN THE FIRST...WILL ADD SOME SPRINKLES OVER
THE EAST AND NORTH CENTRAL (WHICH MAY HAVE SOME UPSLOPE HELP) FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AN UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING EAST ON
FRIDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY WILL KEEP TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL AS CLOUDS DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. THEN...AS WINDS
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES RISE TO
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES UNDER DEEP MIXING (TO 800-750MB) AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES EAST AND PARTLY CLOUDY WEST. FORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND OFFSET THE LOWER RH (UPPER 20S TO MID 30S) AS THE
U.P. IS IN ITS CRITICAL TIME BEFORE GREEN-UP.
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING EAST...THE REGION WILL TRANSITION TO
ZONAL FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND POTENTIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK. THAT
WILL PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED
SHORTWAVES BRUSH THE AREA. TIMING THESE WAVES IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT
IN THESE SITUATIONS...SO WILL SHOW SOME SLIGHT CHANCES (ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WEST) ASSOCIATED WITH TWO WAVES QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SUNDAY LOOKS
DRY AT THIS POINT...WITH ANOTHER WAVE POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THIS
WAVE...WHETHER IT STAYS NORTH OR MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BUT THERE
THEY INDICATE ENOUGH BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION TO SUPPORT
SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD WITH DAYTIME LAKE
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS DOMINATING WINDS AND WIND DIRECTIONS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015
AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS E ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL FALL OFF TO MOSTLY UNDER 10KT ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE. ON
TUE...WINDS WILL BE UNDER 15KT AS THE RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A WEAK LOW
PRES TROF THAT PASSES TUE NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...ANOTHER HIGH PRES
WILL RIDGE S FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WED/THU. AS
THE HIGH BEGINS RIDGING S INTO THE UPPER LAKES WED...WINDS OVER ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY GUST TO NEAR 20KT ONCE AGAIN. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER OVER THE W. WITH WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER LAKES
THU INTO SAT...WIND SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNDER 15KT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
308 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO SRN JAMES BAY. TO THE E...A MID
LEVEL LOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES/NRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST EXTENDS BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND WRAPS SOME MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE UPPER LAKES. AS OF 19Z...W EDGE OF THE STRATOCU DECK
FM THIS MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW RUNS FROM ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE FAR
ERN COUNTIES OF UPPER MI. CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED INTO CENTRAL UPPER
MI THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT WITH THE MID-LVL AND SFC HIGH
PRES RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR EXCEPT
PARTLY CLOUDY EAST WHERE THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE FOR CLOUDS ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRES TROUGH AT
LEAST INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TONIGHT TO DROP INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE INTERIOR WEST WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL MAXIMIZED DUE TO CALM WINDS UNDER AXIS OF SFC RIDGE AND PWATS
OF .25 INCH OR LESS. ELSEWHERE MIN TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 30S.
ON TUESDAY...MODELS INDICATE SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NRN
PLAINS BUT SHOW BEST Q-VECT CONV AND MID-LVL MOISTURE ASSOC WITH
SHORTWAVE GENERALLY LIFTING NORTH AND WEST OF UPPER MI. MODELS HINT
THAT PERHAPS THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA COULD SEE SOME
SPRINKLES/-SHRA TUE EVENING. BUT GIVEN THE DRYNESS OF THE AIR MASS
ALREADY IN PLACE WL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FCST THROUGH 00Z WED BUT
REFLECT EXPECTED INCREASE IN MID-LVL CLOUDS ALONG WEAK COLD-FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN GRIDS. HIGH TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST COULD REACH
INTO THE MID 60S...BUT DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS UNDER
WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER (IN THE 50S) ALONG THE
GREAT LAKES AND EAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015
MODELS STILL SHOWING POOR AGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY
WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY POSSIBLY SHIFTING THROUGH OR NEAR THE REGION
TUE INTO THU. THE 00Z/29 IS SHOWING THE MOST PRECIP AS A RESULT OF
SHOWING STRONGER ENERGY MORE DIRECTLY IMPACT THE CWA. HOWEVER...THE
GFS STILL ONLY SHOWS LESS THAN 0.05 INCHES OF RAIN TUE
EVENING...0.01-0.02 INCHES WED AFTERNOON...AND UP TO 0.15 INCHES
OVER THE FAR E LATE WED. LITTLE TO NO QPF SEEN FROM OTHER
MODELS...SO THE GFS IS MORE OF AN OUTLIER. THAT COMBINED WITH THE
FACT THAT THE LACK OF PRECIP HAS BEEN PERSISTENT LATELY...WILL NOT
INCLUDE PRECIP IN THE FORECAST. OF COURSE...THE STRENGTH AND TRACK
OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPS DUE TO BOTH
AIRMASS TEMPS AND A PRECIP/CLOUD COVER. TUE WILL BE WARMER THAN WED
AND THU AS MODELS DO AT LEAST AGREE THAT THE AIRMASS WILL BE COOLER
ON WED AND THU...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECIP/EXACT TEMPS FRI THROUGH SUN AS
WELL WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON FRI BEING BROKEN DOWN BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY/TROUGHING MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA. THE 12Z/26 ECMWF SHOWS
LESS THAN 0.05 INCHES OF QPF ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT ON FRI INTO FRI
NIGHT...BUT OTHER MODELS DO NOT SUPPORT THIS IDEA. GENERAL IDEA IS
THAT SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETAKE CONTROL ON SAT...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. PRECIP CHANCES ARE HIGHER ON SUN AS THE ECMWF
BRINGS A WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW. THE
AIRMASS DEFINITELY BECOMES WARMER INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT HOW MUCH
AND WHEN THE WARMEST CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED IS CLOUDED BY MODEL
DISAGREEMENT/VARIABILITY. COULD SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S OVER THE
W HALF ON ONE OR TWO DAYS FRI THROUGH SUN...PROBABLY OCCURING ON SAT
IF IT DOES END UP BEING DRY/SUNNY AS CURRENTLY SHOWN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD WITH DAYTIME LAKE
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS DOMINATING WINDS AND WIND DIRECTIONS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015
AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS E ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL FALL OFF TO MOSTLY UNDER 10KT ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE. ON
TUE...WINDS WILL BE UNDER 15KT AS THE RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A WEAK LOW
PRES TROF THAT PASSES TUE NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...ANOTHER HIGH PRES
WILL RIDGE S FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WED/THU. AS
THE HIGH BEGINS RIDGING S INTO THE UPPER LAKES WED...WINDS OVER ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY GUST TO NEAR 20KT ONCE AGAIN. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER OVER THE W. WITH WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER LAKES
THU INTO SAT...WIND SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNDER 15KT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
102 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO SRN JAMES BAY. TO THE SE...A MID
LEVEL LOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EXTENDS BROAD
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION BACK TO THE UPPER LAKES. SHORTWAVE THAT WAS N
OF MAINE 24HRS AGO HAS TRACKED W AND SW AND IS NOW OVER NE LWR
MI/LAKE HURON. WHILE THIS WAVE HAS HELPED PUSH CLOUDS W INTO UPPER
MI...CLOUDS HAVE NOT SPREAD AS FAR W AS EXPECTED...AND CLOUD HEIGHTS
ARE QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN MODELS INDICATED. AS OF 08Z...W EDGE OF
THE STRATOCU DECK RUNS FROM NE LAKE SUPERIOR TO ROUGHLY MUNISING-
ESCANABA. CLOUDS BRIEFLY EXTENDED W INTO MARQUETTE COUNTY EARLIER
IN THE NIGHT.
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS TODAY.
LOOKING N...W EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK EXTENDS A LITTLE FARTHER W IN
NRN ONTARIO THAN OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THIS MAY BE KEY TO
SPREADING CLOUDS INTO MORE OF UPPER MI TODAY UNDER NNE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. ON THE OTHER HAND...DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE DAY WILL LEAD TO INCREASED DIVERGENCE OVER
THE LAKE WHICH WILL WORK TO BREAK UP THE LOWER CLOUDS THAT DROP SSW
OVER THE LAKE. THE COMPETING SIGNALS MAKE THE CLOUD FCST IN CNTRL
UPPER MI QUITE UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW...FCST REFLECTS SOME WESTWARD
EXPANSION OF CLOUDS IN CNTRL UPPER MI THIS MORNING FROM WHAT IS
CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAX TEMPS SHOULD
BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BUT PROBABLY A LITTLE COOLER AT SOME
LOCATIONS OVER THE E DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER
THE AREA. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR W TO PARTLY CLOUDY EAST...PERHAPS
MOSTLY CLOUDY FAR EAST. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO WHAT
IS BEING OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER
WILL OBVIOUSLY PLAY A ROLE IN MIN TEMPS OVER THE E TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015
MODELS STILL SHOWING POOR AGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY
WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY POSSIBLY SHIFTING THROUGH OR NEAR THE REGION
TUE INTO THU. THE 00Z/29 IS SHOWING THE MOST PRECIP AS A RESULT OF
SHOWING STRONGER ENERGY MORE DIRECTLY IMPACT THE CWA. HOWEVER...THE
GFS STILL ONLY SHOWS LESS THAN 0.05 INCHES OF RAIN TUE
EVENING...0.01-0.02 INCHES WED AFTERNOON...AND UP TO 0.15 INCHES
OVER THE FAR E LATE WED. LITTLE TO NO QPF SEEN FROM OTHER
MODELS...SO THE GFS IS MORE OF AN OUTLIER. THAT COMBINED WITH THE
FACT THAT THE LACK OF PRECIP HAS BEEN PERSISTENT LATELY...WILL NOT
INCLUDE PRECIP IN THE FORECAST. OF COURSE...THE STRENGTH AND TRACK
OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPS DUE TO BOTH
AIRMASS TEMPS AND A PRECIP/CLOUD COVER. TUE WILL BE WARMER THAN WED
AND THU AS MODELS DO AT LEAST AGREE THAT THE AIRMASS WILL BE COOLER
ON WED AND THU...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECIP/EXACT TEMPS FRI THROUGH SUN AS
WELL WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON FRI BEING BROKEN DOWN BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY/TROUGHING MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA. THE 12Z/26 ECMWF SHOWS
LESS THAN 0.05 INCHES OF QPF ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT ON FRI INTO FRI
NIGHT...BUT OTHER MODELS DO NOT SUPPORT THIS IDEA. GENERAL IDEA IS
THAT SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETAKE CONTROL ON SAT...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. PRECIP CHANCES ARE HIGHER ON SUN AS THE ECMWF
BRINGS A WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW. THE
AIRMASS DEFINITELY BECOMES WARMER INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT HOW MUCH
AND WHEN THE WARMEST CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED IS CLOUDED BY MODEL
DISAGREEMENT/VARIABILITY. COULD SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S OVER THE
W HALF ON ONE OR TWO DAYS FRI THROUGH SUN...PROBABLY OCCURING ON SAT
IF IT DOES END UP BEING DRY/SUNNY AS CURRENTLY SHOWN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD WITH DAYTIME LAKE
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS DOMINATING WINDS AND WIND DIRECTIONS. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015
WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING S THRU WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY...WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTEST OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...MOSTLY UNDER 10KT. OVER
THE E...WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO NEAR 20KT. AS THE RIDGE
DRIFTS E A BIT TONIGHT...WINDS WILL FALL OFF TO MOSTLY UNDER 10KT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE. ON TUE...WINDS WILL BE UNDER 15KT AS THE
RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A WEAK LOW PRES TROF THAT PASSES TUE NIGHT. IN
ITS WAKE...ANOTHER HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE S FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WED/THU. AS THE HIGH BEGINS RIDGING S INTO THE
UPPER LAKES WED...WINDS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY GUST TO
NEAR 20KT ONCE AGAIN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER THE W. WITH WEAK
PRES GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER LAKES THU/FRI...WIND SHOULD BE MOSTLY
UNDER 15KT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1247 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015
.AVIATION...
EXISTING EXTENSIVE MVFR DIURNAL CLOUD FIELD WILL GRADUALLY LIFT INTO
VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH WITH TIME
THROUGH THE EVENING PERIOD AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES. A NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WIND FIELD MAY DRAW ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT. THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL POCKETS OF VFR CLOUDS. THERE
IS AT LEAST A LOW POTENTIAL FOR CEILINGS TO DIP BELOW 3K FT
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE INVERSION LEVEL DROPS...PARTICULARLY AT
PTK/FNT.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...LOW THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 322 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
EARLY MORNING US/CANADIAN RADAR COMPOSITE LOOP HAS BEEN SHOWING A
REGION OF SHOWERS ADVANCING ACROSS LAKE HURON AND THE THUMB. THESE
SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A COMPACT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOW
DROPPING INTO LAKE HURON FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE MAIN RIBBON OF
LARGE SCALE ASCENT VIA GOOD DCVA WILL PRECEDE THE WAVE...WHICH IS
FORECAST TO ROTATE ACROSS SE MI DURING THE COURSE OF THE MORNING.
THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL COLD POOL AND RESULTANT STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE THUMB AND POINTS EAST THIS
MORNING. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE POOL OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.
THUS THE GREATER COVERAGE OF EARLY MORNING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE THUMB INTO THE NORTHEASTERN DETROIT SUBURBS...WITH
COVERAGE DECREASING TO THE WEST. ANY HIGHER INTENSITY RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING WILL BE VERY BRIEF...SO OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO ONLY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS.
A MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE BUBBLE WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS SE MI THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORT WAVE. THE CORRESPONDING MID
LEVEL WARMING WILL REDUCE THE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTHS
SUBSTANTIALLY AND SUPPORTS THE CURRENT DRY FORECAST. SE MI WILL
REMAIN ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A BROAD REGION OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW EXTENDING ALL THE WAY TO NEW ENGLAND. UPSTREAM SATELLITE AND
SFC OBSERVATIONS TO THE NORTHEAST OF LAKE HURON SUGGEST AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY...WHICH WILL EVOLVE INTO A
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE STRATO CU FIELD UNDER THE MID LEVEL INVERSION THIS
AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...NAM AND RAP SOUNDINGS
STILL SUGGEST STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RISING MIXING
DEPTHS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S.
NORTHERLY WINDS OFF LAKE HURON WILL AGAIN KEEP THE SHORELINE LOCALS
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER.
LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL EASE ITS GRIP ON SE MI TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES INTO LOWER MI FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE /ALBEIT MUCH WEAKER/ WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS ERN
LOWER MI TONIGHT WITHIN THE PERSISTENT MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW.
THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY JUST LEAD TO SOME PERIODIC MID CLOUDS.
MODEL RH PROGS DO HOWEVER SUGGEST THE EROSION OF THE DIURNALLY
ENHANCED CU FIELD WILL TAKE WELL INTO THE NIGHT...LIKELY A RESULT
OF THE PERSISTENT INVERSION. THESE FACTORS WILL SUPPORT LEANING ON
THE HIGH END OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS /RANGING FROM THE MID
30S IN THE THUMB TO LOW 40S IN METRO DETROIT/.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
A MORE COMFORTABLE STRETCH OF SPRING WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH PREDOMINATELY DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING
TEMEPRATURES.
PERSISTENT STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD LET UP BRIEFLY AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD TUESDAY WITH TWO GOOD SURGES OF SUBSIDENCE AND A FAIRLY RAPID
LOSS IN DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS LOSS IN LOW CLOUD SHOULD ONLY BE
TEMPRORARY AS A GOOD SIGNAL EXISTS THAT LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE
WILL THEN BLOSSOM INTO A FAIRLY ROBUST DIURNAL CU RESPONSE. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE
60...ALTHOUGH AREAS HUGGING THE LAKESHORE WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER.
MUDDY MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND LACK OF FLOW IN THE COLUMN WILL
LEAD TO PERSISTENCE FOR WEDNESDAY. THE LOW LEVELS ARE FORECASTED TO
BE MARGINALLY DRIER WHILE THERE IS SOME SIGNAL FOR SOME MIDLEVEL
MOISTURE TO POOL OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE.
STILL EXPECTING SOME MIDCLOUD...BUT BETTER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 60S ON WEDNESDAY.
MODEL DATA IS AGGRESIVE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY/VORTICITY MAXIMUM
DROPPING STRAIGHT SOUTHWARD INTO THE LAKE MICHIGAN VICINITY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE BOOK HASNT BEEN WRITTEN YET ON
SPECIFICS WITH MODELS TRENDING WESTERLY WITH THE QPF AXIS.
REGARDLESS...FAIRLY ROBUST SHORTWAVE AND INBOUND TRAJECTORY OF AIR
PARCELS SUPPORT AN INCREASINGLY GOOD POTENTIAL FOR A COOL DOWN AND
RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. BUMPED POPS UPWARD FROM
THE OFFERED GRIDDED GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY COULD STRUGGLE
TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA.
MARINE...
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME TODAY AS THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH
AXIS SWINGS SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE STATE. A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE STATE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. THIS
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO YIELD A RUN OF WEAK WINDS OVER
THE MARINE AREAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A NEXT SURGE IN NORTHERLY
WINDS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK
SURFACE LOW OR TROUGH AXIS.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ421-
441>443.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...SC
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
722 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO SRN JAMES BAY. TO THE SE...A MID
LEVEL LOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EXTENDS BROAD
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION BACK TO THE UPPER LAKES. SHORTWAVE THAT WAS N
OF MAINE 24HRS AGO HAS TRACKED W AND SW AND IS NOW OVER NE LWR
MI/LAKE HURON. WHILE THIS WAVE HAS HELPED PUSH CLOUDS W INTO UPPER
MI...CLOUDS HAVE NOT SPREAD AS FAR W AS EXPECTED...AND CLOUD HEIGHTS
ARE QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN MODELS INDICATED. AS OF 08Z...W EDGE OF
THE STRATOCU DECK RUNS FROM NE LAKE SUPERIOR TO ROUGHLY MUNISING-
ESCANABA. CLOUDS BRIEFLY EXTENDED W INTO MARQUETTE COUNTY EARLIER
IN THE NIGHT.
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS TODAY.
LOOKING N...W EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK EXTENDS A LITTLE FARTHER W IN
NRN ONTARIO THAN OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THIS MAY BE KEY TO
SPREADING CLOUDS INTO MORE OF UPPER MI TODAY UNDER NNE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. ON THE OTHER HAND...DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE DAY WILL LEAD TO INCREASED DIVERGENCE OVER
THE LAKE WHICH WILL WORK TO BREAK UP THE LOWER CLOUDS THAT DROP SSW
OVER THE LAKE. THE COMPETING SIGNALS MAKE THE CLOUD FCST IN CNTRL
UPPER MI QUITE UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW...FCST REFLECTS SOME WESTWARD
EXPANSION OF CLOUDS IN CNTRL UPPER MI THIS MORNING FROM WHAT IS
CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAX TEMPS SHOULD
BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BUT PROBABLY A LITTLE COOLER AT SOME
LOCATIONS OVER THE E DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER
THE AREA. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR W TO PARTLY CLOUDY EAST...PERHAPS
MOSTLY CLOUDY FAR EAST. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO WHAT
IS BEING OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER
WILL OBVIOUSLY PLAY A ROLE IN MIN TEMPS OVER THE E TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015
MODELS STILL SHOWING POOR AGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY
WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY POSSIBLY SHIFTING THROUGH OR NEAR THE REGION
TUE INTO THU. THE 00Z/29 IS SHOWING THE MOST PRECIP AS A RESULT OF
SHOWING STRONGER ENERGY MORE DIRECTLY IMPACT THE CWA. HOWEVER...THE
GFS STILL ONLY SHOWS LESS THAN 0.05 INCHES OF RAIN TUE
EVENING...0.01-0.02 INCHES WED AFTERNOON...AND UP TO 0.15 INCHES
OVER THE FAR E LATE WED. LITTLE TO NO QPF SEEN FROM OTHER
MODELS...SO THE GFS IS MORE OF AN OUTLIER. THAT COMBINED WITH THE
FACT THAT THE LACK OF PRECIP HAS BEEN PERSISTENT LATELY...WILL NOT
INCLUDE PRECIP IN THE FORECAST. OF COURSE...THE STRENGTH AND TRACK
OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPS DUE TO BOTH
AIRMASS TEMPS AND A PRECIP/CLOUD COVER. TUE WILL BE WARMER THAN WED
AND THU AS MODELS DO AT LEAST AGREE THAT THE AIRMASS WILL BE COOLER
ON WED AND THU...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECIP/EXACT TEMPS FRI THROUGH SUN AS
WELL WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON FRI BEING BROKEN DOWN BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY/TROUGHING MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA. THE 12Z/26 ECMWF SHOWS
LESS THAN 0.05 INCHES OF QPF ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT ON FRI INTO FRI
NIGHT...BUT OTHER MODELS DO NOT SUPPORT THIS IDEA. GENERAL IDEA IS
THAT SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETAKE CONTROL ON SAT...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. PRECIP CHANCES ARE HIGHER ON SUN AS THE ECMWF
BRINGS A WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW. THE
AIRMASS DEFINITELY BECOMES WARMER INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT HOW MUCH
AND WHEN THE WARMEST CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED IS CLOUDED BY MODEL
DISAGREEMENT/VARIABILITY. COULD SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S OVER THE
W HALF ON ONE OR TWO DAYS FRI THROUGH SUN...PROBABLY OCCURING ON SAT
IF IT DOES END UP BEING DRY/SUNNY AS CURRENTLY SHOWN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015
THE WRN EDGE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS IS EDGING W ACROSS ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND WILL PROBABLY AFFECT KSAW FOR A TIME TODAY. SINCE
SATELLITE TRENDS ALONG WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST BACKING
OFF ON THE POTENTIAL OF LOW CLOUDS AT KSAW...THIS FCST WILL CONTINUE
THE MORE OPTIMISTIC TREND CARRIED IN RECENT FCSTS OVERNIGHT. OCNL
HIGHER END MVFR CIGS SHOULD OCCUR AT KSAW INTO THE EARLY AFTN.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.
FARTHER W INTO DRIER AIR...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015
WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING S THRU WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY...WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTEST OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...MOSTLY UNDER 10KT. OVER
THE E...WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO NEAR 20KT. AS THE RIDGE
DRIFTS E A BIT TONIGHT...WINDS WILL FALL OFF TO MOSTLY UNDER 10KT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE. ON TUE...WINDS WILL BE UNDER 15KT AS THE
RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A WEAK LOW PRES TROF THAT PASSES TUE NIGHT. IN
ITS WAKE...ANOTHER HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE S FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WED/THU. AS THE HIGH BEGINS RIDGING S INTO THE
UPPER LAKES WED...WINDS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY GUST TO
NEAR 20KT ONCE AGAIN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER THE W. WITH WEAK
PRES GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER LAKES THU/FRI...WIND SHOULD BE MOSTLY
UNDER 15KT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
700 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015
.AVIATION...
MOST OF THE EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWERS WILL HAVE DIMINISHED AND/OR
PUSHED SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS BY 12Z. A LARGE REGION OF MVFR STRATUS
HAS MOVED INTO SE MI ALONG AND IN THE WAKE OF THESE SHOWERS. DAYTIME
HEATING WILL DEEPEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH IN TURN WILL LIFT CLOUD
BASES TO THE 3500 TO 4500 FT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR DTW...A PUSH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD STILL RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF MVFR CLOUDS THIS MORNING BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING LIFTS THE
BASES THIS AFTERNOON.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 322 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
EARLY MORNING US/CANADIAN RADAR COMPOSITE LOOP HAS BEEN SHOWING A
REGION OF SHOWERS ADVANCING ACROSS LAKE HURON AND THE THUMB. THESE
SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A COMPACT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOW
DROPPING INTO LAKE HURON FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE MAIN RIBBON OF
LARGE SCALE ASCENT VIA GOOD DCVA WILL PRECEDE THE WAVE...WHICH IS
FORECAST TO ROTATE ACROSS SE MI DURING THE COURSE OF THE MORNING.
THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL COLD POOL AND RESULTANT STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE THUMB AND POINTS EAST THIS
MORNING. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE POOL OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.
THUS THE GREATER COVERAGE OF EARLY MORNING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE THUMB INTO THE NORTHEASTERN DETROIT SUBURBS...WITH
COVERAGE DECREASING TO THE WEST. ANY HIGHER INTENSITY RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING WILL BE VERY BRIEF...SO OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO ONLY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS.
A MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE BUBBLE WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS SE MI THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORT WAVE. THE CORRESPONDING MID
LEVEL WARMING WILL REDUCE THE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTHS
SUBSTANTIALLY AND SUPPORTS THE CURRENT DRY FORECAST. SE MI WILL
REMAIN ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A BROAD REGION OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW EXTENDING ALL THE WAY TO NEW ENGLAND. UPSTREAM SATELLITE AND
SFC OBSERVATIONS TO THE NORTHEAST OF LAKE HURON SUGGEST AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY...WHICH WILL EVOLVE INTO A
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE STRATO CU FIELD UNDER THE MID LEVEL INVERSION THIS
AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...NAM AND RAP SOUNDINGS
STILL SUGGEST STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RISING MIXING
DEPTHS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S.
NORTHERLY WINDS OFF LAKE HURON WILL AGAIN KEEP THE SHORELINE LOCALS
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER.
LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL EASE ITS GRIP ON SE MI TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES INTO LOWER MI FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE /ALBEIT MUCH WEAKER/ WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS ERN
LOWER MI TONIGHT WITHIN THE PERSISTENT MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW.
THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY JUST LEAD TO SOME PERIODIC MID CLOUDS.
MODEL RH PROGS DO HOWEVER SUGGEST THE EROSION OF THE DIURNALLY
ENHANCED CU FIELD WILL TAKE WELL INTO THE NIGHT...LIKELY A RESULT
OF THE PERSISTENT INVERSION. THESE FACTORS WILL SUPPORT LEANING ON
THE HIGH END OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS /RANGING FROM THE MID
30S IN THE THUMB TO LOW 40S IN METRO DETROIT/.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
A MORE COMFORTABLE STRETCH OF SPRING WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH PREDOMINATELY DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING
TEMEPRATURES.
PERSISTENT STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD LET UP BRIEFLY AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD TUESDAY WITH TWO GOOD SURGES OF SUBSIDENCE AND A FAIRLY RAPID
LOSS IN DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS LOSS IN LOW CLOUD SHOULD ONLY BE
TEMPRORARY AS A GOOD SIGNAL EXISTS THAT LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE
WILL THEN BLOSSOM INTO A FAIRLY ROBUST DIURNAL CU RESPONSE. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE
60...ALTHOUGH AREAS HUGGING THE LAKESHORE WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER.
MUDDY MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND LACK OF FLOW IN THE COLUMN WILL
LEAD TO PERSISTENCE FOR WEDNESDAY. THE LOW LEVELS ARE FORECASTED TO
BE MARGINALLY DRIER WHILE THERE IS SOME SIGNAL FOR SOME MIDLEVEL
MOISTURE TO POOL OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE.
STILL EXPECTING SOME MIDCLOUD...BUT BETTER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 60S ON WEDNESDAY.
MODEL DATA IS AGGRESIVE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY/VORTICITY MAXIMUM
DROPPING STRAIGHT SOUTHWARD INTO THE LAKE MICHIGAN VICINITY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE BOOK HASNT BEEN WRITTEN YET ON
SPECIFICS WITH MODELS TRENDING WESTERLY WITH THE QPF AXIS.
REGARDLESS...FAIRLY ROBUST SHORTWAVE AND INBOUND TRAJECTORY OF AIR
PARCELS SUPPORT AN INCREASINGLY GOOD POTENTIAL FOR A COOL DOWN AND
RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. BUMPED POPS UPWARD FROM
THE OFFERED GRIDDED GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY COULD STRUGGLE
TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA.
MARINE...
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME TODAY AS THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH
AXIS SWINGS SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE STATE. A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE STATE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. THIS
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO YIELD A RUN OF WEAK WINDS OVER
THE MARINE AREAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A NEXT SURGE IN NORTHERLY
WINDS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK
SURFACE LOW OR TROUGH AXIS.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ421-
441>443.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....SC
SHORT TERM...SC
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
450 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO SRN JAMES BAY. TO THE SE...A MID
LEVEL LOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EXTENDS BROAD
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION BACK TO THE UPPER LAKES. SHORTWAVE THAT WAS N
OF MAINE 24HRS AGO HAS TRACKED W AND SW AND IS NOW OVER NE LWR
MI/LAKE HURON. WHILE THIS WAVE HAS HELPED PUSH CLOUDS W INTO UPPER
MI...CLOUDS HAVE NOT SPREAD AS FAR W AS EXPECTED...AND CLOUD HEIGHTS
ARE QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN MODELS INDICATED. AS OF 08Z...W EDGE OF
THE STRATOCU DECK RUNS FROM NE LAKE SUPERIOR TO ROUGHLY MUNISING-
ESCANABA. CLOUDS BRIEFLY EXTENDED W INTO MARQUETTE COUNTY EARLIER
IN THE NIGHT.
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS TODAY.
LOOKING N...W EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK EXTENDS A LITTLE FARTHER W IN
NRN ONTARIO THAN OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THIS MAY BE KEY TO
SPREADING CLOUDS INTO MORE OF UPPER MI TODAY UNDER NNE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. ON THE OTHER HAND...DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE DAY WILL LEAD TO INCREASED DIVERGENCE OVER
THE LAKE WHICH WILL WORK TO BREAK UP THE LOWER CLOUDS THAT DROP SSW
OVER THE LAKE. THE COMPETING SIGNALS MAKE THE CLOUD FCST IN CNTRL
UPPER MI QUITE UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW...FCST REFLECTS SOME WESTWARD
EXPANSION OF CLOUDS IN CNTRL UPPER MI THIS MORNING FROM WHAT IS
CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAX TEMPS SHOULD
BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BUT PROBABLY A LITTLE COOLER AT SOME
LOCATIONS OVER THE E DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER
THE AREA. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR W TO PARTLY CLOUDY EAST...PERHAPS
MOSTLY CLOUDY FAR EAST. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO WHAT
IS BEING OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER
WILL OBVIOUSLY PLAY A ROLE IN MIN TEMPS OVER THE E TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015
MODELS STILL SHOWING POOR AGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY
WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY POSSIBLY SHIFTING THROUGH OR NEAR THE REGION
TUE INTO THU. THE 00Z/29 IS SHOWING THE MOST PRECIP AS A RESULT OF
SHOWING STRONGER ENERGY MORE DIRECTLY IMPACT THE CWA. HOWEVER...THE
GFS STILL ONLY SHOWS LESS THAN 0.05 INCHES OF RAIN TUE
EVENING...0.01-0.02 INCHES WED AFTERNOON...AND UP TO 0.15 INCHES
OVER THE FAR E LATE WED. LITTLE TO NO QPF SEEN FROM OTHER
MODELS...SO THE GFS IS MORE OF AN OUTLIER. THAT COMBINED WITH THE
FACT THAT THE LACK OF PRECIP HAS BEEN PERSISTENT LATELY...WILL NOT
INCLUDE PRECIP IN THE FORECAST. OF COURSE...THE STRENGTH AND TRACK
OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPS DUE TO BOTH
AIRMASS TEMPS AND A PRECIP/CLOUD COVER. TUE WILL BE WARMER THAN WED
AND THU AS MODELS DO AT LEAST AGREE THAT THE AIRMASS WILL BE COOLER
ON WED AND THU...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECIP/EXACT TEMPS FRI THROUGH SUN AS
WELL WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON FRI BEING BROKEN DOWN BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY/TROUGHING MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA. THE 12Z/26 ECMWF SHOWS
LESS THAN 0.05 INCHES OF QPF ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT ON FRI INTO FRI
NIGHT...BUT OTHER MODELS DO NOT SUPPORT THIS IDEA. GENERAL IDEA IS
THAT SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETAKE CONTROL ON SAT...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. PRECIP CHANCES ARE HIGHER ON SUN AS THE ECMWF
BRINGS A WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW. THE
AIRMASS DEFINITELY BECOMES WARMER INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT HOW MUCH
AND WHEN THE WARMEST CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED IS CLOUDED BY MODEL
DISAGREEMENT/VARIABILITY. COULD SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S OVER THE
W HALF ON ONE OR TWO DAYS FRI THROUGH SUN...PROBABLY OCCURING ON SAT
IF IT DOES END UP BEING DRY/SUNNY AS CURRENTLY SHOWN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH
NOCTURNAL COOLING...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO IMPACT MAINLY CMX AND
ESPECIALLY SAW...WHERE THE EXPECTED NNE WIND WILL HAVE THE STRONGER
UPSLOPE COMPONENT. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT SAW THAT MAY APPROACH
IFR FOR A NUMBER OF HOURS LATE IN THE NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.
IWD MAY ALSO SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS...BUT A DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT AND
THE LOCATION OF THE WRN EDGE OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
JUSTIFIES ONLY A SCT SKY FCST. SAW WILL SEE THE SLOWEST IMPROVEMENT
TODAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS NOT LIKELY UNTIL MID AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015
WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING S THRU WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY...WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTEST OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...MOSTLY UNDER 10KT. OVER
THE E...WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO NEAR 20KT. AS THE RIDGE
DRIFTS E A BIT TONIGHT...WINDS WILL FALL OFF TO MOSTLY UNDER 10KT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE. ON TUE...WINDS WILL BE UNDER 15KT AS THE
RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A WEAK LOW PRES TROF THAT PASSES TUE NIGHT. IN
ITS WAKE...ANOTHER HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE S FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WED/THU. AS THE HIGH BEGINS RIDGING S INTO THE
UPPER LAKES WED...WINDS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY GUST TO
NEAR 20KT ONCE AGAIN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER THE W. WITH WEAK
PRES GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER LAKES THU/FRI...WIND SHOULD BE MOSTLY
UNDER 15KT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
340 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP CYC FLOW ARND
CLOSED LO CENTERED OVER NOVA SCOTIA EXTENDING W INTO THE UPR LKS AND
DOWNSTREAM OF UPR RDG IN THE PLAINS. SHRTWV EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPR
TROF IS NEAR THE SOO AND SHIFTING TO THE SSW IN THE NE UPR FLOW ARND
THE CLOSED LO. THIS DISTURBANCE IS BRINGING SOME CLDS TO ERN UPR
MI...BUT ANY ACCOMPANYING PCPN IS ON TRACK TO REMAIN TO THE E OF THE
CWA. THERE IS ANOTHER SHRTWV OVER WRN QUEBEC ROTATING TO THE WSW
ARND THE CLOSED LO. 12Z RAOB FM MOOSONEE ONTARIO SHOWED DEEP
SATURATION. UNDER THE TWO SHRTWVS NOTED TO THE E...THERE ARE PLENTY
OF LO CLDS E AND NE OF THE SOO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEEPER MSTR.
DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS FARTHER TO THE W AS SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB AND
INL RAOBS /12Z PWAT AT THOSE LOCATIONS WAS ABOUT 0.25 INCH AND AS
LITTLE AS 50 PCT OF NORMAL/ IS MAINTAINING MOSUNNY SKIES OVER MOST
OF THE CWA. TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 50S AWAY FM THE MODERATING
INFLUENCE OF LK SUP...BUT READINGS REMAIN NEAR 40 ALONG THE CHILLY
LK SUP SHORE.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR AREA OF
LO CLDS TO THE NE TO IMPACT UPR MI AND IMPACT ON TEMPS.
TNGT...AS SECOND SHRTWV NOW OVER WRN QUEBEC ROTATES SWWD AND OVER
FAR ERN UPR MI...THE LLVL FLOW IS FCST TO VEER MORE TO THE NE AND
ADVECT THE MORE COPIOUS LLVL MSTR INTO THE UPR LKS. IN CONCERT WITH
NOCTURNAL COOLING THAT WL END DEEP MIXING...EXPECT BKN-OVC LO CLDS
TO DVLP OVER MAINLY THE NCENTRAL AND ERN CWA AS INDICATED BY CURRENT
FCST. ALTHOUGH THE DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THIS SHRTWV
ARE FCST TO BRUSH THE ERN CWA...THE BULK OF THE MODELS INDICATE THE
PCPN WL REMAIN TO THE E OF THAT AREA WITH THE MID LVLS REMAINING TOO
DRY. SEVERAL OF THE HIER RES MODELS DO GENERATE SOME LGT PCPN OVER
MAINLY THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NCENTRAL...WHERE THE UPSLOPE FLOW WL
BE MAXIMIZED. OPTED TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF SOME DRIZZLE/FLURRIES IN
THESE AREAS LATE TNGT. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR
FAR W...WHICH WL BE FARTHER FM THE INCOMING HIER LLVL MSTR AND WHERE
DOWNSLOPE...MORE DIFFLUENT FLOW NEAR SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS WL
RESTRICT THE POTENTIAL FOR LO CLDS THAT WOULD ARRIVE LATER.
MON...WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND FCST LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVRN SHOWN
ON FCST SDNGS...EXPECT THE LO CLDS TO GRADUALLY MIX OUT. THIS
PROCESS WL BE SLOWEST OVER THE NCENTRAL AND E. H85 TEMPS WL BE CLOSE
TO 0C...SO MAX TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE 50S OVER THE INTERIOR W
AND SCENTRAL WITH DEEP MIXING. BUT HI TEMPS WL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE
LO END OF GUIDANCE OVER THE NCENTRAL AND E WITH MORE LO CLDS/LK
MODERATION IN PERSISTENT LLVL N FLOW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015
MODELS STILL SHOWING POOR AGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY
WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY POSSIBLY SHIFTING THROUGH OR NEAR THE REGION
TUE INTO THU. THE 00Z/29 IS SHOWING THE MOST PRECIP AS A RESULT OF
SHOWING STRONGER ENERGY MORE DIRECTLY IMPACT THE CWA. HOWEVER...THE
GFS STILL ONLY SHOWS LESS THAN 0.05 INCHES OF RAIN TUE
EVENING...0.01-0.02 INCHES WED AFTERNOON...AND UP TO 0.15 INCHES
OVER THE FAR E LATE WED. LITTLE TO NO QPF SEEN FROM OTHER
MODELS...SO THE GFS IS MORE OF AN OUTLIER. THAT COMBINED WITH THE
FACT THAT THE LACK OF PRECIP HAS BEEN PERSISTENT LATELY...WILL NOT
INCLUDE PRECIP IN THE FORECAST. OF COURSE...THE STRENGTH AND TRACK
OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPS DUE TO BOTH
AIRMASS TEMPS AND A PRECIP/CLOUD COVER. TUE WILL BE WARMER THAN WED
AND THU AS MODELS DO AT LEAST AGREE THAT THE AIRMASS WILL BE COOLER
ON WED AND THU...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECIP/EXACT TEMPS FRI THROUGH SUN AS
WELL WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON FRI BEING BROKEN DOWN BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY/TROUGHING MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA. THE 12Z/26 ECMWF SHOWS
LESS THAN 0.05 INCHES OF QPF ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT ON FRI INTO FRI
NIGHT...BUT OTHER MODELS DO NOT SUPPORT THIS IDEA. GENERAL IDEA IS
THAT SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETAKE CONTROL ON SAT...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. PRECIP CHANCES ARE HIGHER ON SUN AS THE ECMWF
BRINGS A WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW. THE
AIRMASS DEFINITELY BECOMES WARMER INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT HOW MUCH
AND WHEN THE WARMEST CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED IS CLOUDED BY MODEL
DISAGREEMENT/VARIABILITY. COULD SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S OVER THE
W HALF ON ONE OR TWO DAYS FRI THROUGH SUN...PROBABLY OCCURING ON SAT
IF IT DOES END UP BEING DRY/SUNNY AS CURRENTLY SHOWN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH
NOCTURNAL COOLING...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO IMPACT MAINLY CMX AND
ESPECIALLY SAW...WHERE THE EXPECTED NNE WIND WILL HAVE THE STRONGER
UPSLOPE COMPONENT. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT SAW THAT MAY APPROACH
IFR FOR A NUMBER OF HOURS LATE IN THE NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.
IWD MAY ALSO SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS...BUT A DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT AND
THE LOCATION OF THE WRN EDGE OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
JUSTIFIES ONLY A SCT SKY FCST. SAW WILL SEE THE SLOWEST IMPROVEMENT
TODAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS NOT LIKELY UNTIL MID AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
EXPECT N WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MON...STRONGEST OVER THE E HALF OF
THE LAKE UNDER SHARPER PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HI PRES RIDGE ALIGNED
FROM NW ONTARIO THRU THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. AS THE HI PRES RIDGE
DRIFTS TO THE E LATER ON MON THRU TUE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH UNDER 15
KTS. A LO PRES TROF WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES TUE NIGHT AND THEN
GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER HI PRES RIDGE THRU THU. SINCE THE PRES GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE...WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW 15 KTS.
ALTHOUGH THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP A BIT ON FRI AHEAD OF
ANOTHER LO PRES TROF...HI STABILITY OVER THE CHILLY LAKE WATERS
SHOULD HOLDS WINDS UNDER 15 KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
322 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
EARLY MORNING US/CANADIAN RADAR COMPOSITE LOOP HAS BEEN SHOWING A
REGION OF SHOWERS ADVANCING ACROSS LAKE HURON AND THE THUMB. THESE
SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A COMPACT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOW
DROPPING INTO LAKE HURON FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE MAIN RIBBON OF
LARGE SCALE ASCENT VIA GOOD DCVA WILL PRECEDE THE WAVE...WHICH IS
FORECAST TO ROTATE ACROSS SE MI DURING THE COURSE OF THE MORNING.
THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL COLD POOL AND RESULTANT STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE THUMB AND POINTS EAST THIS
MORNING. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE POOL OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.
THUS THE GREATER COVERAGE OF EARLY MORNING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE THUMB INTO THE NORTHEASTERN DETROIT SUBURBS...WITH
COVERAGE DECREASING TO THE WEST. ANY HIGHER INTENSITY RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING WILL BE VERY BRIEF...SO OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO ONLY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS.
A MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE BUBBLE WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS SE MI THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORT WAVE. THE CORRESPONDING MID
LEVEL WARMING WILL REDUCE THE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTHS
SUBSTANTIALLY AND SUPPORTS THE CURRENT DRY FORECAST. SE MI WILL
REMAIN ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A BROAD REGION OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW EXTENDING ALL THE WAY TO NEW ENGLAND. UPSTREAM SATELLITE AND
SFC OBSERVATIONS TO THE NORTHEAST OF LAKE HURON SUGGEST AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY...WHICH WILL EVOLVE INTO A
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE STRATO CU FIELD UNDER THE MID LEVEL INVERSION THIS
AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...NAM AND RAP SOUNDINGS
STILL SUGGEST STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RISING MIXING
DEPTHS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S.
NORTHERLY WINDS OFF LAKE HURON WILL AGAIN KEEP THE SHORELINE LOCALS
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER.
LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL EASE ITS GRIP ON SE MI TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES INTO LOWER MI FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE /ALBEIT MUCH WEAKER/ WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS ERN
LOWER MI TONIGHT WITHIN THE PERSISTENT MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW.
THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY JUST LEAD TO SOME PERIODIC MID CLOUDS.
MODEL RH PROGS DO HOWEVER SUGGEST THE EROSION OF THE DIURNALLY
ENHANCED CU FIELD WILL TAKE WELL INTO THE NIGHT...LIKELY A RESULT
OF THE PERSISTENT INVERSION. THESE FACTORS WILL SUPPORT LEANING ON
THE HIGH END OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS /RANGING FROM THE MID
30S IN THE THUMB TO LOW 40S IN METRO DETROIT/.
&&
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
A MORE COMFORTABLE STRETCH OF SPRING WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH PREDOMINATELY DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING
TEMEPRATURES.
PERSISTENT STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD LET UP BRIEFLY AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD TUESDAY WITH TWO GOOD SURGES OF SUBSIDENCE AND A FAIRLY RAPID
LOSS IN DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS LOSS IN LOW CLOUD SHOULD ONLY BE
TEMPRORARY AS A GOOD SIGNAL EXISTS THAT LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE
WILL THEN BLOSSOM INTO A FAIRLY ROBUST DIURNAL CU RESPONSE. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE
60...ALTHOUGH AREAS HUGGING THE LAKESHORE WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER.
MUDDY MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND LACK OF FLOW IN THE COLUMN WILL
LEAD TO PERSISTENCE FOR WEDNESDAY. THE LOW LEVELS ARE FORECASTED TO
BE MARGINALLY DRIER WHILE THERE IS SOME SIGNAL FOR SOME MIDLEVEL
MOISTURE TO POOL OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE.
STILL EXPECTING SOME MIDCLOUD...BUT BETTER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 60S ON WEDNESDAY.
MODEL DATA IS AGGRESIVE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY/VORTICITY MAXIMUM
DROPPING STRAIGHT SOUTHWARD INTO THE LAKE MICHIGAN VICINITY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE BOOK HASNT BEEN WRITTEN YET ON
SPECIFICS WITH MODELS TRENDING WESTERLY WITH THE QPF AXIS.
REGARDLESS...FAIRLY ROBUST SHORTWAVE AND INBOUND TRAJECTORY OF AIR
PARCELS SUPPORT AN INCREASINGLY GOOD POTENTIAL FOR A COOL DOWN AND
RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. BUMPED POPS UPWARD FROM
THE OFFERED GRIDDED GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY COULD STRUGGLE
TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME TODAY AS THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH
AXIS SWINGS SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE STATE. A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE STATE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. THIS
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO YIELD A RUN OF WEAK WINDS OVER
THE MARINE AREAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A NEXT SURGE IN NORTHERLY
WINDS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK
SURFACE LOW OR TROUGH AXIS.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 104 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015
SOLID CLOUD SHIELD IS MAKE STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA. CEILING WILL LOWER AS A SECOND SURGE OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
ARRIVES IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY SPROUT
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT
THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS AS DRIER AIR INFILTRATES IN THE NEAR
SURFACE LAYER. WINDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY FROM THE NORTH.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS BELOW 5000 FT AFTER 10Z TONIGHT.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LHZ421-
441>443.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SC
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB
AVIATION.....MANN
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
108 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP CYC FLOW ARND
CLOSED LO CENTERED OVER NOVA SCOTIA EXTENDING W INTO THE UPR LKS AND
DOWNSTREAM OF UPR RDG IN THE PLAINS. SHRTWV EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPR
TROF IS NEAR THE SOO AND SHIFTING TO THE SSW IN THE NE UPR FLOW ARND
THE CLOSED LO. THIS DISTURBANCE IS BRINGING SOME CLDS TO ERN UPR
MI...BUT ANY ACCOMPANYING PCPN IS ON TRACK TO REMAIN TO THE E OF THE
CWA. THERE IS ANOTHER SHRTWV OVER WRN QUEBEC ROTATING TO THE WSW
ARND THE CLOSED LO. 12Z RAOB FM MOOSONEE ONTARIO SHOWED DEEP
SATURATION. UNDER THE TWO SHRTWVS NOTED TO THE E...THERE ARE PLENTY
OF LO CLDS E AND NE OF THE SOO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEEPER MSTR.
DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS FARTHER TO THE W AS SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB AND
INL RAOBS /12Z PWAT AT THOSE LOCATIONS WAS ABOUT 0.25 INCH AND AS
LITTLE AS 50 PCT OF NORMAL/ IS MAINTAINING MOSUNNY SKIES OVER MOST
OF THE CWA. TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 50S AWAY FM THE MODERATING
INFLUENCE OF LK SUP...BUT READINGS REMAIN NEAR 40 ALONG THE CHILLY
LK SUP SHORE.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR AREA OF
LO CLDS TO THE NE TO IMPACT UPR MI AND IMPACT ON TEMPS.
TNGT...AS SECOND SHRTWV NOW OVER WRN QUEBEC ROTATES SWWD AND OVER
FAR ERN UPR MI...THE LLVL FLOW IS FCST TO VEER MORE TO THE NE AND
ADVECT THE MORE COPIOUS LLVL MSTR INTO THE UPR LKS. IN CONCERT WITH
NOCTURNAL COOLING THAT WL END DEEP MIXING...EXPECT BKN-OVC LO CLDS
TO DVLP OVER MAINLY THE NCENTRAL AND ERN CWA AS INDICATED BY CURRENT
FCST. ALTHOUGH THE DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THIS SHRTWV
ARE FCST TO BRUSH THE ERN CWA...THE BULK OF THE MODELS INDICATE THE
PCPN WL REMAIN TO THE E OF THAT AREA WITH THE MID LVLS REMAINING TOO
DRY. SEVERAL OF THE HIER RES MODELS DO GENERATE SOME LGT PCPN OVER
MAINLY THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NCENTRAL...WHERE THE UPSLOPE FLOW WL
BE MAXIMIZED. OPTED TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF SOME DRIZZLE/FLURRIES IN
THESE AREAS LATE TNGT. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR
FAR W...WHICH WL BE FARTHER FM THE INCOMING HIER LLVL MSTR AND WHERE
DOWNSLOPE...MORE DIFFLUENT FLOW NEAR SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS WL
RESTRICT THE POTENTIAL FOR LO CLDS THAT WOULD ARRIVE LATER.
MON...WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND FCST LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVRN SHOWN
ON FCST SDNGS...EXPECT THE LO CLDS TO GRADUALLY MIX OUT. THIS
PROCESS WL BE SLOWEST OVER THE NCENTRAL AND E. H85 TEMPS WL BE CLOSE
TO 0C...SO MAX TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE 50S OVER THE INTERIOR W
AND SCENTRAL WITH DEEP MIXING. BUT HI TEMPS WL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE
LO END OF GUIDANCE OVER THE NCENTRAL AND E WITH MORE LO CLDS/LK
MODERATION IN PERSISTENT LLVL N FLOW.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
A DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED MOST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
IS DOMINANT FACTOR. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN VARIABLE...STARTING OUT WITH
A RIDGE ALOFT UPSTREAM OF LARGE UPPER LOW MOVING OFF THE EASTERN
CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. STRONG JET SURGING ACROSS WESTERN CANADA
BRINGS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SCNTRL CANADA ON MONDAY AND FM NORTHERN
ONTARIO TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. PRIMARY
WAVE SPLITS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE LINGERING
RIDGING FM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN QUEBEC. EXPECT DRY
WEATHER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF SHOWED SHORTWAVE DIVING
SSE ACROSS UPR LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT. THAT RUN OF ECMWF ALSO FORECASTED SUFFICIENT
H85-H7 RH TO GENERATE QPF OVER MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS WEDNESDAY
EVENING. GFS AND GEM-NH AND NOW THE 12Z ECMWF NOT AS BULLISH
THOUGH...KEEPING STRONGEST FORCING TO THE EAST. WILL NOT SHOW MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHANCES FAR EAST AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN CHILLY
TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHERLY GRADIENT WINDS NEAR
LK SUPERIOR. TEMPS MAY STILL TOUCH 60 DEGREES OVER INLAND AREAS NEAR
WI BORDER.
SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST BY THURSDAY PAVING THE WAY FOR RIDGING TO
EXPAND FM CNTRL PLAINS TO SCNTRL CANADA TOWARD WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
AS THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE MORE OF A LAKE BREEZE DAY AT LEAST
WEST...SO COOLING THERE WILL NOT BE AS EXPANSIVE AS WEDNESDAY.
ENOUGH GRADIENT NORTH WINDS EAST TO KEEP ANY LK MICHIGAN LAKE BREEZE
FROM DEVELOPING. DUE TO DEEPER MIXING...EXPECT HIGHS INLAND WEST TO
REACH LOW-MID 60S. SHOWED LOWEST DWPNTS/RH OVER INTERIOR WEST BUT
ALSO ALONG LK MICHIGAN WHERE PERSISTENT NORTH WINDS PROVIDE
DOWNSLOPE DRYING.
MORE STRONG JET ENERGY PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN CANADA WILL PROPEL
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER SCNTRL CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. UNLIKE THE WAVE EARLIER IN THE
WEEK...WAVE HOLDS TOGETHER WHILE PRESSING EAST AND THERE IS DECENT
MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG ASSOCIATED SFC-H85 TROUGH SWINGING TOWARD
UPPER GREAT LAKES. AFTER A WARM AND DRY DAY FOR FRIDAY WITH SOME
TEMPS REACHING LOWER 70S...SOME SHOWERS SHOULD SWING OVER THE CWA
LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...BUT DESPITE THE WARMTH AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM...THERE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH H85 THETA-E ADVECTION OR
FORECAST INSTABILITY TO PUT ANY TSRA IN ALONG THE TROUGH. SEEMS
MODELS ARE LOCKING ONTO THIS IDEA OF SOME SHRA THOUGH WITH SIMILAR
TIMING IN TROUGH PASSAGE. CARRIED LOW CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
INTO NEXT WEEKEND...GFS QUICKER WITH PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
OVER SCNTRL CANADA...SO IT SHOWS ANOTHER SFC TROUGH AND WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION/QPF INTO WESTERN LAKES AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT. 00Z
ECMWF APPEARED MORE REASONABLE BY SHOWING SLOWER PROGRESSION OF MAIN
TROUGHING AND DEVELOPING A SFC WARM FRONT FM NORTHERN PLAINS TO
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON LEADING EDGE OF VERY WARM AIR. 00Z
ECMWF WOULD INDICATE DUE TO THE MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT TO THE
NORTH OF WARM FRONT COULD SEE CHANCES OF ELEVATED SHOWERS SPREAD
TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. BETTER CHANCE
FOR TSRA WOULD BE CLOSER...BUT PROBABLY WOULD SET UP JUST SOUTH OF
UPPER LAKES CLOSER TO GRADIENT OF 1-2K J/KG MUCAPE AREA FM CNTRL
PLAINS TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LATEST ECMWF IS A MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN PLOWING MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT INTO UPR
LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LEANED ON CONSENSUS BUT DID
INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY GIVEN THAT TREND. DID NOT PUT TSRA
IN FORECAST YET THOUGH THOUGH BASED ON H85 THETA-E AND GRADIENT OF
MUCAPE FM THE 12Z ECMWF IT COULD OCCUR OVER THE AREA. GIVEN H85
TEMPS WARMING ABOVE +10C...TEMPS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY COULD RISE
AT LEAST INTO THE LOW 70S MOST AREAS AWAY FM ANY COOLING FM THE
LAKES. BASED ON 12Z RUNS OF MODELS...THINK BEST CHANCE FOR WARMING
WILL BE ON SATURDAY AFTN IN WAKE OF FRIDAY NIGHT SYSTEM WITH
WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND INCREASING SUNSHINE/DRYING. TEMPS ON
SUNDAY WILL DEPEND ON SHRA AND CLOUD COVERAGE. LEANED ON CONSENSUS
TEMPS /HIGHS MAINLY 60S/ MORE THAN SATURDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES OF
RAIN BY THAT POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH
NOCTURNAL COOLING...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO IMPACT MAINLY CMX AND
ESPECIALLY SAW...WHERE THE EXPECTED NNE WIND WILL HAVE THE STRONGER
UPSLOPE COMPONENT. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT SAW THAT MAY APPROACH
IFR FOR A NUMBER OF HOURS LATE IN THE NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.
IWD MAY ALSO SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS...BUT A DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT AND
THE LOCATION OF THE WRN EDGE OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
JUSTIFIES ONLY A SCT SKY FCST. SAW WILL SEE THE SLOWEST IMPROVEMENT
TODAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS NOT LIKELY UNTIL MID AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
EXPECT N WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MON...STRONGEST OVER THE E HALF OF
THE LAKE UNDER SHARPER PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HI PRES RIDGE ALIGNED
FROM NW ONTARIO THRU THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. AS THE HI PRES RIDGE
DRIFTS TO THE E LATER ON MON THRU TUE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH UNDER 15
KTS. A LO PRES TROF WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES TUE NIGHT AND THEN
GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER HI PRES RIDGE THRU THU. SINCE THE PRES GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE...WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW 15 KTS.
ALTHOUGH THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP A BIT ON FRI AHEAD OF
ANOTHER LO PRES TROF...HI STABILITY OVER THE CHILLY LAKE WATERS
SHOULD HOLDS WINDS UNDER 15 KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
650 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
UPDATED FOR THE NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
AT 330 PM...A VARIETY OF WEATHER WAS OCCURRING ACROSS THE CWA.
SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT
THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER TODAY. THE 4KM NMM WRF...AS WELL AS
THE 18Z NAM AND THE HRRR ALL INDICATED THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE LINGERING
BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THE VORT MAX
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST AS THE EVENING WEARS ON...BRINGING AN END TO THE THREAT
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. TEMPS OVERNIGHT
WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE 30S WITH A FEW 20S POSSIBLE IN LOW
LYING LOCATIONS. OVERALL...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT.
ON WEDNESDAY...A CLOSED LOW WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE LAKE
SUPERIOR REGION BY EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE A BACK DOOR SURFACE
COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTHEAST. HIGHS WILL
ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE 60S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
MILD TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE. THERE WILL BE A WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR
RAIN ON FRIDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS SHIFTS
TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW LEADING TO WEAK FAST-MOVING IMPULSES MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION.
THURSDAY...DRY AND MILD UNDER A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. LIGHT WINDS
WILL PREVENT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM DEVELOPING...BUT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY FALL TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON. MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS MID 60S TO NEAR 70S INLAND...WITH A
LAKE BREEZE LIMITING TEMPS TO THE 50S BY LAKE SUPERIOR...PERHAPS AS
COLD AS THE MID 40S ALONG THE NORTH SHORE FROM SILVER BAY NORTH.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN
FRIDAY...MOVING ACROSS FROM WEST TO EAST SIMILAR TO TODAY /TUES/
BUT WITH MORE INTENSE RAINFALL. TOTAL PRECIP WILL AMOUNT TO AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH. ECMWF/GEM A BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS...BUT IN
GENERALLY THINK THE RAIN WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA IN THE
MORNING INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN IN THE AFTERNOON. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT NEAR FREEZING WHERE SKIES REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT IN THE
ARROWHEAD REGION...ELSEWHERE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S. HIGHS
COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 50S BY THE LAKE TO MID
60S ELSEWHERE.
SAT/SUN/MON/TUES...BEHIND THIS FRONT ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS AT MID/UPPER LEVELS RESULTING A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR PRECIP MOST DAYS...BUT NO DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE A TOTAL
WASHOUT. AT THIS POINT SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL...BUT WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN IT IS
DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN TIMING OF ANY INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM. TEMPS WARM
DUE TO SOME LOW LEVEL RIDGING THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...IN THE 60S BY LAKE
SUPERIOR. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS...IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
THE KHYR AREA COULD BE AFFECTED BY A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER THIS
EVENING...BUT CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. THE
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF NW WISCONSIN LATER THIS EVENING. ALL OF
NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 37 64 35 55 / 0 10 0 0
INL 32 65 35 68 / 0 10 0 0
BRD 34 70 39 68 / 0 0 0 0
HYR 38 65 34 61 / 20 0 0 0
ASX 36 62 33 55 / 20 10 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1040 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST INTO THURSDAY
AS SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP THE COAST. SUNSHINE
AND SEASONABLE WEATHER SHOULD RETURN ON FRIDAY AND LAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1035 PM TUESDAY...HAVE MADE INCREASES IN CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT MORE PROGRESSIVE BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES OF NOTE WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON.
ALL EYES ARE FOCUSED ON AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ARKLATEX
REGION MOVING EASTWARD. AHEAD OF THIS LOW BACKING MID-LEVEL FLOW
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE GULF WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME CHANCE OF RAIN DEVELOPING BY 8 AM
AS FAR NORTH AS FLORENCE & MYRTLE BEACH.
COMPARED TO 00Z THE 12Z MODELS HAVE BECOME (AS A WHOLE) MUCH
DRIER IN THE 06-12Z WINDOW TONIGHT. THE CULPRIT APPEARS TO BE THIS
MORNING`S MCS THAT RAN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. DRYING AND
STABILIZATION BEHIND THIS FEATURE HAS LED TO A REDUCTION IN THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS.
THE 12Z NAM AND RUC ARE THE PREFERRED MODELS...WITH THE 12Z GFS
LIKELY STILL TOO RAPID WITH MOISTURE RETURN. GIVEN THE LESSER
AMOUNT OF CIRRUS STREAMING NORTHWARD THIS EVENING WE SHOULD HAVE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...PERHAPS EVEN A FEW
HOURS LONGER ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA.
I HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT 3-5 DEGREES
LOWER...BUT AM STILL 1-2 DEGREES ABOVE THE CHILLY 12Z GFS AND NAM
MOS NUMBERS. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY... VERY BUSY UPPER PATTERN IN THE EASTERN U.S.
MAKING FOR SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES. A HUGE BARELY MOVING UPPER
LOW WILL BE LOCATED JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND STATES ON WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE ANOTHER NORTHERN BRANCH FEATURE WILL BE DIVING NEARLY
DUE SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. A SOUTHERN BRANCH FEATURE
PREVIOUSLY CUTOFF OVER THE PLAINS FOR SOME TIME WILL BE OPENING UP
AND PROGRESSING EAST. THE LATTER TWO FEATURES WILL HAVE SOME
INTERACTION IN PART MODIFIED BY THE UNWILLINGNESS OF THE FORMER TO
PROGRESS EAST. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH FEATURE WILL HAVE A SLOW MOVING
SURFACE REFLECTION THAT CROSSES FLORIDA. THE CONFUSING ASPECT
REGARDING THIS SYSTEM IS THAT IT WILL PICK UP AMPLE GULF MOISTURE
BUT MAY HAVE TROUBLE BRINGING IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST TO
BRING THE APPRECIABLE RAINFALL THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. SO
WHILE RAINFALL CHANCES WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH THE QPF HAS BEEN
REDUCED. WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE PROBLEM IS A WEAKENED LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PAIRED WITH THE FACT THAT THE MID LEVEL WAVE
NOW WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY TO PREVENT DEEPER COUPLED ASCENT. THE
UPPER WAVE WEAKENS SO RAPIDLY AS IT GETS SHEARED OUT BETWEEN THE
UPSTREAM DIVING VORT AND THE STALWART NEW ENGLAND LOW. THIS LEADS
TO MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY`S FORECAST AND THE
SPEED AT WHICH PRECIPITATION CHANCES WANE LOCALLY. THE SECOND
DISTURBANCE WILL ATTEMPT TO CAPTURE THE SURFACE WAVE OFF OF CAPE
HATTERAS BUT MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE TROUGH AS A WHOLE REMAINS TOO
CONFLUENT/POSITIVELY TILTED TO SUCCEED. ALSO THERE WILL BE A DRY
MOVING UP THE COAST ON THURSDAY AND THE LANDMASS IS MORE LIKELY TO
FIND ITSELF IN THE WRAP-AROUND REGION. HEADING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
IT IS TOUGH TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN
ZONES GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SHEARED VORTICITY AND THE COLD AIR
ALOFT BEARING DOWN UPON THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHERN EDGE OF 5H LOW PASSES OVER THE AREA
DURING FRI BUT PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN RATHER LOW. INSTABILITY UNDER
THE LOW SHOULD BE ENHANCED BUT THERE IS A DISTINCT LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE. SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE DOES ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY
BUT AT THAT POINT THE LOW IS SHIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH
SUBSIDENCE OVERHEAD. THE 5H LOW CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN UNDER WEAKLY
AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT. CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE
EARLY NEXT WEEK...MIGRATING TO NEAR BERMUDA BY MIDWEEK.
ALOFT THE WEAKLY AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN...RESULTING IN
NORTHWEST FLOW DURING THE WEEKEND...WILL TRANSITION TO WEAK
RIDGING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO TO START THE PERIOD WILL CLIMB ABOVE CLIMO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF
THE BERMUDA HIGH.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...LIGHT S WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY
LOWER THROUGH 12Z BUT REMAIN VFR. VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE INTO
THE KMYR/KFLO/KCRE TERMINALS AROUND 11-12Z WITH MID LEVEL CIGS
DEVELOPING.
RAIN WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE TERMINALS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
WORSE FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS. VFR MAY
CONTINUE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON AT KLBT/KILM. DURING THE AFTERNOON
MVFR WILL DEVELOP AT KFLO AND IFR AT KCRE/KMYR WITH BEST CONFIDENCE
KMYR. LIGHT WINDS DURING THE MORNING WILL BECOME E...THEN GRADUALLY
BACK TO NE 5-10KT EXCEPT 10-15KT AT KMYR AS A SURFACE LOW PASSES
TO THE SOUTHEAST.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A CONTINUING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. VFR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 1035 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES FROM EARLIER UPDATE. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER SITTING DIRECTLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LEADING
TO LIGHT WINDS WITH SEAS OF 2 FT OR LESS. THESE BENIGN CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE CAROLINAS HAS HELPED DIMINISH
THE STRONGER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHERLY SURGE EARLY THIS
MORNING. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE AWAY FROM SHORE...WHILE
NEARSHORE A SEABREEZE CIRCULATION HAS ALLOWED ONSHORE WINDS TO
DEVELOP MAINLY SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR. THE HIGH SHOULD SLIDE EAST AND
OFF THE COAST TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING GENERALLY
EASTERLY...STRONGEST ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS WHERE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE STRONGER DUE TO GREATER DISTANCE FROM
THE HIGH.
SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 2 FEET WITHIN 20 MILES OF THE COAST.
THESE SHOULD FALL TO 1-2 FEET OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY DUE TO THE 4-5
SECOND WIND WAVE DYING AWAY WITH THE 8-9 SECOND SOUTHEAST SWELL
CONTINUING.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A LIGHT
ONSHORE/EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES UP ITS INFLUENCE OVER
THE REGION WHILE AT THE SAME TIME AN AMORPHOUS LOW WILL BE
CONGEALING OVER THE NORTHEAST GOMEX AND FLORIDA PENINSULA.
DEPENDING ON THE SHAPE, SPEED, AND TRACK OF THIS LOW THE LOCAL
WINDS MAY VEER SLIGHTLY AND INCREASE A FEW KNOTS. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AND SOME MODELS SHOW LIGHTER WINDS BUT HAVE
DECIDED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE VERY
SLOWLY AND SO STILL BE THE DOMINANT PLAYER ON THURSDAY. THE
PROXIMITY OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALWAYS LEADS TO A CONSIDERABLE CHANGE
IN WIND DIRECTION AS THE DAY WEARS ON AND THIS APPEARS TO BE THE
CASE ON THURSDAY WITH AN EVENTUAL TURN TO OFFSHORE. FORTUNATELY
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WIND AND SEAS NEVER BUILD ABOVE ANY
THRESHOLDS THOUGH THE VARIABLE DIRECTIONS WILL KEEP DOMINANT
PERIODS RATHER SHORT AND CONDITIONS CHOPPY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...MODEST OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON SAT AND BEGIN BACKING TO THE
SOUTHWEST SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
WEAKENING GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO SPEEDS DROPPING FROM A SOLID 20 KT
FRI TO 10 KT OR LESS LATER SAT. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS MAY
BRIEFLY REACH 5 FT WELL AWAY FROM SHORE LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT BUT
GENERALLY 3 TO 4 FT CAN BE EXPECTED INTO SAT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE AS
WIND SPEEDS DECREASE...DROPPING TO 2 TO 3 FT LATE SAT AND SUN.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...RJD/MRR
MARINE...REK/TRA/III/MBB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
720 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST INTO THURSDAY
AS SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP THE COAST. SUNSHINE
AND SEASONABLE WEATHER SHOULD RETURN ON FRIDAY AND LAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 715 PM TUESDAY...VERY QUIET EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
COOL TEMPERATURES. RADAR LOOPS SHOW SOME CIRRUS SNEAKING IN FROM
THE SW...OTHERWISE NO WEATHER OF NOTE. NO CHANGE MADE TO THE
FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON.
ALL EYES ARE FOCUSED ON AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ARKLATEX
REGION MOVING EASTWARD. AHEAD OF THIS LOW BACKING MID-LEVEL FLOW
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE GULF WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME CHANCE OF RAIN DEVELOPING BY 8 AM
AS FAR NORTH AS FLORENCE & MYRTLE BEACH.
COMPARED TO 00Z THE 12Z MODELS HAVE BECOME (AS A WHOLE) MUCH
DRIER IN THE 06-12Z WINDOW TONIGHT. THE CULPRIT APPEARS TO BE THIS
MORNING`S MCS THAT RAN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. DRYING AND
STABILIZATION BEHIND THIS FEATURE HAS LED TO A REDUCTION IN THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS.
THE 12Z NAM AND RUC ARE THE PREFERRED MODELS...WITH THE 12Z GFS
LIKELY STILL TOO RAPID WITH MOISTURE RETURN. GIVEN THE LESSER
AMOUNT OF CIRRUS STREAMING NORTHWARD THIS EVENING WE SHOULD HAVE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...PERHAPS EVEN A FEW
HOURS LONGER ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA.
I HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT 3-5 DEGREES
LOWER...BUT AM STILL 1-2 DEGREES ABOVE THE CHILLY 12Z GFS AND NAM
MOS NUMBERS. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY... VERY BUSY UPPER PATTERN IN THE EASTERN U.S.
MAKING FOR SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES. A HUGE BARELY MOVING UPPER
LOW WILL BE LOCATED JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND STATES ON WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE ANOTHER NORTHERN BRANCH FEATURE WILL BE DIVING NEARLY
DUE SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. A SOUTHERN BRANCH FEATURE
PREVIOUSLY CUTOFF OVER THE PLAINS FOR SOME TIME WILL BE OPENING UP
AND PROGRESSING EAST. THE LATTER TWO FEATURES WILL HAVE SOME
INTERACTION IN PART MODIFIED BY THE UNWILLINGNESS OF THE FORMER TO
PROGRESS EAST. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH FEATURE WILL HAVE A SLOW MOVING
SURFACE REFLECTION THAT CROSSES FLORIDA. THE CONFUSING ASPECT
REGARDING THIS SYSTEM IS THAT IT WILL PICK UP AMPLE GULF MOISTURE
BUT MAY HAVE TROUBLE BRINGING IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST TO
BRING THE APPRECIABLE RAINFALL THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. SO
WHILE RAINFALL CHANCES WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH THE QPF HAS BEEN
REDUCED. WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE PROBLEM IS A WEAKENED LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PAIRED WITH THE FACT THAT THE MID LEVEL WAVE
NOW WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY TO PREVENT DEEPER COUPLED ASCENT. THE
UPPER WAVE WEAKENS SO RAPIDLY AS IT GETS SHEARED OUT BETWEEN THE
UPSTREAM DIVING VORT AND THE STALWART NEW ENGLAND LOW. THIS LEADS
TO MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY`S FORECAST AND THE
SPEED AT WHICH PRECIPITATION CHANCES WANE LOCALLY. THE SECOND
DISTURBANCE WILL ATTEMPT TO CAPTURE THE SURFACE WAVE OFF OF CAPE
HATTERAS BUT MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE TROUGH AS A WHOLE REMAINS TOO
CONFLUENT/POSITIVELY TILTED TO SUCCEED. ALSO THERE WILL BE A DRY
MOVING UP THE COAST ON THURSDAY AND THE LANDMASS IS MORE LIKELY TO
FIND ITSELF IN THE WRAP-AROUND REGION. HEADING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
IT IS TOUGH TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN
ZONES GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SHEARED VORTICITY AND THE COLD AIR
ALOFT BEARING DOWN UPON THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHERN EDGE OF 5H LOW PASSES OVER THE AREA
DURING FRI BUT PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN RATHER LOW. INSTABILITY UNDER
THE LOW SHOULD BE ENHANCED BUT THERE IS A DISTINCT LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE. SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE DOES ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY
BUT AT THAT POINT THE LOW IS SHIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH
SUBSIDENCE OVERHEAD. THE 5H LOW CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN UNDER WEAKLY
AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT. CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE
EARLY NEXT WEEK...MIGRATING TO NEAR BERMUDA BY MIDWEEK.
ALOFT THE WEAKLY AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN...RESULTING IN
NORTHWEST FLOW DURING THE WEEKEND...WILL TRANSITION TO WEAK
RIDGING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO TO START THE PERIOD WILL CLIMB ABOVE CLIMO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF
THE BERMUDA HIGH.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOOK FOR A BROKEN CIRRUS CEILING THE
AFTERNOON...DEBRIS FROM A LARGE COMPLEX SOUTH OF THE REGION. LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW MAY BE REPLACE WITH A SOUTHEAST RESULTANT ALONG THE
COAST. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH NO FOG EXPECTED. INCREASING CLOUDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. BY DAYBREAK...LOOK
FOR A MID CLOUD CEILING WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ADVECTING
NORTHWARD FROM A WARM FRONT. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE REGION...THE EASTERN
HALF BEING THE MOST FAVORABLE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A CONTINUING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. VFR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 715 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SITTING DIRECTLY OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS WITH SEAS OF 2 FT OR
LESS. THESE BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS:
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE CAROLINAS HAS HELPED DIMINISH
THE STRONGER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHERLY SURGE EARLY THIS
MORNING. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE AWAY FROM SHORE...WHILE
NEARSHORE A SEABREEZE CIRCULATION HAS ALLOWED ONSHORE WINDS TO
DEVELOP MAINLY SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR. THE HIGH SHOULD SLIDE EAST AND
OFF THE COAST TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING GENERALLY
EASTERLY...STRONGEST ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS WHERE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE STRONGER DUE TO GREATER DISTANCE FROM
THE HIGH.
SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 2 FEET WITHIN 20 MILES OF THE COAST.
THESE SHOULD FALL TO 1-2 FEET OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY DUE TO THE 4-5
SECOND WIND WAVE DYING AWAY WITH THE 8-9 SECOND SOUTHEAST SWELL
CONTINUING.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A LIGHT
ONSHORE/EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES UP ITS INFLUENCE OVER
THE REGION WHILE AT THE SAME TIME AN AMORPHOUS LOW WILL BE
CONGEALING OVER THE NORTHEAST GOMEX AND FLORIDA PENINSULA.
DEPENDING ON THE SHAPE, SPEED, AND TRACK OF THIS LOW THE LOCAL
WINDS MAY VEER SLIGHTLY AND INCREASE A FEW KNOTS. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AND SOME MODELS SHOW LIGHTER WINDS BUT HAVE
DECIDED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE VERY
SLOWLY AND SO STILL BE THE DOMINANT PLAYER ON THURSDAY. THE
PROXIMITY OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALWAYS LEADS TO A CONSIDERABLE CHANGE
IN WIND DIRECTION AS THE DAY WEARS ON AND THIS APPEARS TO BE THE
CASE ON THURSDAY WITH AN EVENTUAL TURN TO OFFSHORE. FORTUNATELY
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WIND AND SEAS NEVER BUILD ABOVE ANY
THRESHOLDS THOUGH THE VARIABLE DIRECTIONS WILL KEEP DOMINANT
PERIODS RATHER SHORT AND CONDITIONS CHOPPY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...MODEST OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON SAT AND BEGIN BACKING TO THE
SOUTHWEST SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
WEAKENING GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO SPEEDS DROPPING FROM A SOLID 20 KT
FRI TO 10 KT OR LESS LATER SAT. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS MAY
BRIEFLY REACH 5 FT WELL AWAY FROM SHORE LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT BUT
GENERALLY 3 TO 4 FT CAN BE EXPECTED INTO SAT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE AS
WIND SPEEDS DECREASE...DROPPING TO 2 TO 3 FT LATE SAT AND SUN.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...RJD/MRR
MARINE...REK/TRA/III/MBB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
853 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY WILL LINGER
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST...THEN TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE
CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 900 AM MONDAY...
UPDATED THE FORECAST AT 9 AM TO REMOVE MENTION OF MORNING FOG...
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. GIVEN THAT THE PRIOR
DISCUSSION SUMS UP FORECAST REASONING QUITE WELL...NO ADDITIONAL
UPDATE TO THE NEAR TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE NECESSARY UNTIL 12Z MODEL
GUIDANCE IS AVAILABLE FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. -VINCENT
TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN RECENT DAYS...BUT STILL BELOW AVG OWING TO
THE INFLUENCE OF BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AROUND A DEEP...MEAN TROUGH
CENTERED NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. A COUPLE OF NOTABLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ROTATING AROUND THE WSW QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LOW WILL PIVOT ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. THE FIRST...INITIALLY OVER CENTRAL
IN...WILL TRACK ESE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND NORTHERN NC...TO
NEAR THE NC OUTER BANKS BY 18Z. THE TRAILING ONE...INITIALLY OVER
LAKE MI...WILL TAKE A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERLY TRACK ACROSS THE
VIRGINIAS TONIGHT. WHILE MOISTURE WITH BOTH WILL BE LIMITED...
MARGINALLY COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIURNAL
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A BRIEF UPTICK OF
SHALLOW CU BASED AROUND 7-8 THOUSAND FT OVER THE NE PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT CU
WILL DEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY TO GENERATE A FEW MEASURABLE SHOWERS WITH
THE LEAD VORT MAX ACROSS THOSE SAME AREAS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...A DEEP AND DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER -ONE INCREASINGLY SO WITH
TIME WITH DIURNAL HEATING- SHOULD CAUSE ANY ASSOCIATED SPRINKLE TO
EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE SFC...IF ANY EVEN DEVELOP AMIDST LIGHT
NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE NW...AND
OTHERWISE DEEP DRYNESS. HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES AND RESULT IN LIGHT NW STIRRING OR BRIEF PERIODS OF
CALM...WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 40S. SOME UPPER 30S WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF/WHERE WINDS GO CALM FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME...HOWEVER...
GIVEN PROJECTED LL THICKNESS VALUES NEAR 1325 M AND JUST PASSING
THIN CIRRUS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 AM MONDAY...
AN UPPER LOW INITIALLY OVER NM WILL MIGRATE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY...WHILE S/W RIDGING ALOFT BRIEFLY EXPANDS
ACROSS THE SE STATES IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW. DRY SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONSEQUENTLY BUILD ACROSS AND LINGER OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH EARLY TUE NIGHT...THEN YIELD TO TOP-DOWN MOISTENING
AHEAD OF SFC LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND GRADUALLY DEEPEN
FROM THE WESTERN GOM AND ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED CIRRUS ON TUE WILL PROGRESSIVELY THICKEN AND LOWER
OVERNIGHT AND CULMINATE IN A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PIEDMONT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK WED. HIGHS GENERALLY 65 TO 70
DEGREES. LOW TEMPS...INITIALLY DRIVEN BY RADIATIONAL COOLING BEFORE
CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER AND CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO STEADY OR RISE
SLIGHTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...ONLY TO EVAPORATIONALLY COOL WHERE RAIN
OCCURS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK...IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...
AN UNSETTLED START TO THE LONG TERM AS WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A
CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW HELPING TO DEVELOP AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST
AFFECTING CENTRAL NC FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY
INTO FRIDAY. A SOMEWHAT NON-TRADITIONAL IN-SITU CAD SCENARIO WILL
SET UP AS OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION FALLS INTO A DRIER AIRMASS BELOW
WHICH WILL COOL THE LOW LEVELS SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS WILL DETER ANY
SEVERE THREAT DESPITE PLENTY OF FORCING ON MULTIPLE LEVELS. WHILE
DETAILS ON THE TIMING ARE STILL COMING INTO AGREEMENT...THE GENERAL
SCENARIO WILL HAVE RAIN MOVING INTO THE SW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES UP THE CAROLINA COAST. BOTH
MODELS ARE PRODUCING 2 DAY QPF TOTALS OF CLOSE TO AN INCH SO SOME
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. DETAILS START TO
BLUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS BOTH MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW DIVING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA BUT THE GFS PRODUCES A MUCH
STRONGER CUTOFF LOW THAN THE ECMWF BUT THE UPSHOT WILL GENERALLY BE
THE SAME WHICH IS SOME LINGERING LIGHTER PRECIPITATION INTO
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT AND RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST...HELPING TO DRY THINGS OUT FOR THE WEEKEND. THE PROGRESSION OF
THE SURFACE HIGH IS YET TO BE DETERMINED BUT SUFFICE TO SAY THAT
THERE WILL BE A DRYING AND WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THEREFORE TEMPERATURES START OUT MIDWEEK IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
FOR HIGHS UNDER THE CAD AIRMASS BUT WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND WILL FEEL MORE LIKE MAY AND LESS LIKE
MARCH.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 900 AM MONDAY...
WINDS WILL BECOME NW AND INCREASE TO 8-14 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KTS BETWEEN 20-23Z. SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR ASIDE FROM SCT CEILINGS AOA 7 KFT...WITH RELATIVE GREATEST
COVERAGE FROM KRWI AND POINTS NORTHEASTWARD WHERE BKN MID-LEVEL
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS NE NC AND SE VA.
OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN
A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN WED-THU...WITH THE
RELATIVE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AND LOWEST AND LONGEST
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS...AT EASTERN TAF SITES. -VINCENT/RAH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT/RAH
NEAR TERM...VINCENT/RAH
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...VINCENT/RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
652 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND
LINGER OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST...THEN TRACK UP
THE SOUTHEAST AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WED THROUGH THU.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM MONDAY...
TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN RECENT DAYS...BUT STILL BELOW AVG OWING TO
THE INFLUENCE OF BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AROUND A DEEP...MEAN TROUGH
CENTERED NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. A COUPLE OF NOTABLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ROTATING AROUND THE WSW QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LOW WILL PIVOT ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. THE FIRST...INITIALLY OVER CENTRAL
IN...WILL TRACK ESE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND NORTHERN NC...TO
NEAR THE NC OUTER BANKS BY 18Z. THE TRAILING ONE...INITIALLY OVER
LAKE MI...WILL TAKE A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERLY TRACK ACROSS THE
VIRGINIAS TONIGHT. WHILE MOISTURE WITH BOTH WILL BE LIMITED...
MARGINALLY COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIURNAL
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A BRIEF UPTICK OF
SHALLOW CU BASED AROUND 7-8 THOUSAND FT OVER THE NE PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT CU
WILL DEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY TO GENERATE A FEW MEASURABLE SHOWERS WITH
THE LEAD VORT MAX ACROSS THOSE SAME AREAS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...A DEEP AND DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER -ONE INCREASINGLY SO WITH
TIME WITH DIURNAL HEATING- SHOULD CAUSE ANY ASSOCIATED SPRINKLE TO
EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE SFC...IF ANY EVEN DEVELOP AMIDST LIGHT
NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE NW...AND
OTHERWISE DEEP DRYNESS. HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES AND RESULT IN LIGHT NW STIRRING OR BRIEF PERIODS OF
CALM...WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 40S. SOME UPPER 30S WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF/WHERE WINDS GO CALM FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME...HOWEVER...
GIVEN PROJECTED LL THICKNESS VALUES NEAR 1325 M AND JUST PASSING
THIN CIRRUS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 AM MONDAY...
AN UPPER LOW INITIALLY OVER NM WILL MIGRATE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY...WHILE S/W RIDGING ALOFT BRIEFLY EXPANDS
ACROSS THE SE STATES IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW. DRY SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONSEQUENTLY BUILD ACROSS AND LINGER OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH EARLY TUE NIGHT...THEN YIELD TO TOP-DOWN MOISTENING
AHEAD OF SFC LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND GRADUALLY DEEPEN
FROM THE WESTERN GOM AND ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED CIRRUS ON TUE WILL PROGRESSIVELY THICKEN AND LOWER
OVERNIGHT AND CULMINATE IN A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PIEDMONT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK WED. HIGHS GENERALLY 65 TO 70
DEGREES. LOW TEMPS...INITIALLY DRIVEN BY RADIATIONAL COOLING BEFORE
CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER AND CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO STEADY OR RISE
SLIGHTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...ONLY TO EVAPORATIONALLY COOL WHERE RAIN
OCCURS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK...IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...
AN UNSETTLED START TO THE LONG TERM AS WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A
CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW HELPING TO DEVELOP AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST
AFFECTING CENTRAL NC FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY
INTO FRIDAY. A SOMEWHAT NON-TRADITIONAL IN-SITU CAD SCENARIO WILL
SET UP AS OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION FALLS INTO A DRIER AIRMASS BELOW
WHICH WILL COOL THE LOW LEVELS SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS WILL DETER ANY
SEVERE THREAT DESPITE PLENTY OF FORCING ON MULTIPLE LEVELS. WHILE
DETAILS ON THE TIMING ARE STILL COMING INTO AGREEMENT...THE GENERAL
SCENARIO WILL HAVE RAIN MOVING INTO THE SW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES UP THE CAROLINA COAST. BOTH
MODELS ARE PRODUCING 2 DAY QPF TOTALS OF CLOSE TO AN INCH SO SOME
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. DETAILS START TO
BLUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS BOTH MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW DIVING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA BUT THE GFS PRODUCES A MUCH
STRONGER CUTOFF LOW THAN THE ECMWF BUT THE UPSHOT WILL GENERALLY BE
THE SAME WHICH IS SOME LINGERING LIGHTER PRECIPITATION INTO
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT AND RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST...HELPING TO DRY THINGS OUT FOR THE WEEKEND. THE PROGRESSION OF
THE SURFACE HIGH IS YET TO BE DETERMINED BUT SUFFICE TO SAY THAT
THERE WILL BE A DRYING AND WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THEREFORE TEMPERATURES START OUT MIDWEEK IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
FOR HIGHS UNDER THE CAD AIRMASS BUT WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND WILL FEEL MORE LIKE MAY AND LESS LIKE
MARCH.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM MONDAY...
PATCHY SUB-VFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS...AND ASSOCIATED VLIFR
CEILINGS/VERTICAL VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL QUICKLY DISPERSE
THROUGH 13Z. OTHERWISE...CALM TO LIGHT W TO WNW WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL BECOME NW AND INCREASE INTO THE 8-14 KT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTINESS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS IN THE
SEVERAL HOURS PRIOR TO SUNSET. SKIES WILL BE RELATIVELY CLEAR
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ASIDE FROM MAINLY FEW-SCT SHALLOW CUMULIFORM
CLOUDS AROUND 7-8 THOUSAND FT...WITH RELATIVE GREATEST COVERAGE FROM
KRWI AND POINTS NORTHEASTWARD...WHERE A BRIEF BKN CEILING AT THAT
HEIGHT WILL BE POSSIBLE MID-LATE AFTERNOON OWING TO THE APPROACH OF
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED RELATIVE STRONGEST LIFT
AND MOISTURE OVER NE NC AND SE VA.
OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN
A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN WED-THU...WITH THE
RELATIVE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AND LOWEST AND LONGEST
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS...AT EASTERN TAF SITES.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
412 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
TONIGHT AND LINGER OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF
COAST...THEN TRACK UP THE SOUTHEAST AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WED
THROUGH THU.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM MONDAY...
TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN RECENT DAYS...BUT STILL BELOW AVG OWING TO
THE INFLUENCE OF BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AROUND A DEEP...MEAN TROUGH
CENTERED NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. A COUPLE OF NOTABLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ROTATING AROUND THE WSW QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LOW WILL PIVOT ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. THE FIRST...INITIALLY OVER CENTRAL
IN...WILL TRACK ESE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND NORTHERN NC...TO
NEAR THE NC OUTER BANKS BY 18Z. THE TRAILING ONE...INITIALLY OVER
LAKE MI...WILL TAKE A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERLY TRACK ACROSS THE
VIRGINIAS TONIGHT. WHILE MOISTURE WITH BOTH WILL BE LIMITED...
MARGINALLY COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIURNAL
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A BRIEF UPTICK OF
SHALLOW CU BASED AROUND 7-8 THOUSAND FT OVER THE NE PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT CU
WILL DEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY TO GENERATE A FEW MEASURABLE SHOWERS WITH
THE LEAD VORT MAX ACROSS THOSE SAME AREAS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...A DEEP AND DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER -ONE INCREASINGLY SO WITH
TIME WITH DIURNAL HEATING- SHOULD CAUSE ANY ASSOCIATED SPRINKLE TO
EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE SFC...IF ANY EVEN DEVELOP AMIDST LIGHT
NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE NW...AND
OTHERWISE DEEP DRYNESS. HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES AND RESULT IN LIGHT NW STIRRING OR BRIEF PERIODS OF
CALM...WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 40S. SOME UPPER 30S WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF/WHERE WINDS GO CALM FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME...HOWEVER...
GIVEN PROJECTED LL THICKNESS VALUES NEAR 1325 M AND JUST PASSING
THIN CIRRUS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 AM MONDAY...
AN UPPER LOW INITIALLY OVER NM WILL MIGRATE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY...WHILE S/W RIDGING ALOFT BRIEFLY EXPANDS
ACROSS THE SE STATES IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW. DRY SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONSEQUENTLY BUILD ACROSS AND LINGER OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH EARLY TUE NIGHT...THEN YIELD TO TOP-DOWN MOISTENING
AHEAD OF SFC LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND GRADUALLY DEEPEN
FROM THE WESTERN GOM AND ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED CIRRUS ON TUE WILL PROGRESSIVELY THICKEN AND LOWER
OVERNIGHT AND CULMINATE IN A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PIEDMONT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK WED. HIGHS GENERALLY 65 TO 70
DEGREES. LOW TEMPS...INITIALLY DRIVEN BY RADIATIONAL COOLING BEFORE
CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER AND CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO STEADY OR RISE
SLIGHTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...ONLY TO EVAPORATIONALLY COOL WHERE RAIN
OCCURS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK...IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...
AN UNSETTLED START TO THE LONG TERM AS WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A
CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW HELPING TO DEVELOP AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST
AFFECTING CENTRAL NC FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY
INTO FRIDAY. A SOMEWHAT NON-TRADITIONAL IN-SITU CAD SCENARIO WILL
SET UP AS OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION FALLS INTO A DRIER AIRMASS BELOW
WHICH WILL COOL THE LOW LEVELS SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS WILL DETER ANY
SEVERE THREAT DESPITE PLENTY OF FORCING ON MULTIPLE LEVELS. WHILE
DETAILS ON THE TIMING ARE STILL COMING INTO AGREEMENT...THE GENERAL
SCENARIO WILL HAVE RAIN MOVING INTO THE SW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES UP THE CAROLINA COAST. BOTH
MODELS ARE PRODUCING 2 DAY QPF TOTALS OF CLOSE TO AN INCH SO SOME
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. DETAILS START TO
BLUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS BOTH MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW DIVING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA BUT THE GFS PRODUCES A MUCH
STRONGER CUTOFF LOW THAN THE ECMWF BUT THE UPSHOT WILL GENERALLY BE
THE SAME WHICH IS SOME LINGERING LIGHTER PRECIPITATION INTO
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT AND RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST...HELPING TO DRY THINGS OUT FOR THE WEEKEND. THE PROGRESSION OF
THE SURFACE HIGH IS YET TO BE DETERMINED BUT SUFFICE TO SAY THAT
THERE WILL BE A DRYING AND WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THEREFORE TEMPERATURES START OUT MIDWEEK IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
FOR HIGHS UNDER THE CAD AIRMASS BUT WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND WILL FEEL MORE LIKE MAY AND LESS LIKE
MARCH.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM MONDAY...
CLEARING OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND
CONSEQUENT NEAR SATURATED CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE MAY RESULT IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY SUB-VFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS...BUT HEAVY DEW WILL BE MORE PREVALENT THAN FOG OWING
TO SHARPLY DRIER AIR JUST ABOVE THE MOIST SURFACE LAYER.
OTHERWISE... CALM TO LIGHT W TO WNW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
NW AND INCREASE INTO THE 8-14 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTINESS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS IN THE SEVERAL HOURS PRIOR TO
SUNSET. SKIES WILL BE RELATIVELY CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ASIDE
FROM MAINLY FEW-SCT SHALLOW CUMULIFORM CLOUDS AROUND 7-8 THOUSAND
FT...WITH RELATIVE GREATEST COVERAGE FROM KRWI AND POINTS
NORTHEASTWARD...WHERE A BRIEF BKN CEILING AT THAT HEIGHT WILL BE
POSSIBLE MID-LATE AFTERNOON OWING TO THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED RELATIVE STRONGEST LIFT AND MOISTURE OVER
NE NC AND SE VA.
OUTLOOK: A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE
OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN WED-THU...WITH THE RELATIVE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AND LOWEST AND LONGEST SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS...AT EASTERN TAF SITES.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
228 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015
.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON CONTINUING RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
THROUGH 19Z... THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRANSITION EASTWARD
ACROSS WRN N TX... AS THE H5 LOW CONTINUES TO CHURN ITS WAY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. EVIDENT ON WV... DECENT DIFFLUENCE IS NOTED
ACROSS NRN TX INTO THE ARKLATEX... WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER S CENTRAL/SERN OK. RAIN CONTINUES TO
LIFT SLOWLY N/NE OUT OF SWRN OK/WRN N TX... WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND
EXTENDING FROM WEST CENTRAL OK INTO NRN TX ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE SFC TROUGH/WARM FRONT. ALTHOUGH RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS SWRN
OK/WRN N TX FOR THE MEANTIME... EXPECT LIGHT RAIN/SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO BUILD BACK IN LATTER TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST. THE HRRR HAS DONE A DECENT JOB WITH THE OVERALL EVOLUTION...
AND COMPARED TO THE VARIOUS FLAVORS OF WRF ONE CAN CHOOSE FROM...
TIMING FOR A RETURN TO SHOWERS ACROSS WRN N TX AND SWRN OK WOULD BE
SOMEWHERE AROUND MIDNIGHT. DISCLAIMER... ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
TONIGHT ACROSS SAID AREA WILL NOT HAVE THE SUBSTANCE OF EARLIER
TODAY... THEREFORE... HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
OVERALL... EXPECT MOST OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
THROUGH 00Z... SO WILL KEEP THE REMAINING AREAS OF THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH INTACT THROUGH 28/00Z. TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... REMAINING
PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL OK WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION S/SE AS THE H5 LOW
TRACKS ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND THE WARM FRONT DRIFTS BACK
SOUTH. FROM 28/00Z (7 PM CDT) THROUGH NOON TUE... ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL ONLY RANGE FROM A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO NEAR A HALF
INCH... WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION FROM
CENTRAL OK THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL/SERN OK.
BEYOND TUESDAY... QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AS BROAD SFC HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS THE LENGTH OF THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGH THU. TEMPS
WILL SLOWLY WARM UP EACH DAY... NEARING NORMAL BY FRI... WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S... PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND. LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT OVERALL AGREEMENT THROUGH SUN... WITH A
BROAD RIDGE EXTENDED ACROSS THE LENGTH OF THE SRN CONUS. IT IS WELL
IN THE FUTURE... BUT PRECIP CHANCES LOOK POSSIBLE TO RETURN BY MON
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN OFF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
JTK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 47 64 45 71 / 80 30 10 10
HOBART OK 44 64 43 71 / 70 20 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 47 63 44 72 / 60 30 10 10
GAGE OK 39 65 41 72 / 100 20 0 10
PONCA CITY OK 44 67 45 72 / 80 20 10 10
DURANT OK 49 61 45 71 / 70 40 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-009>011-
014>019-021>025-027>031-038>042-046.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
556 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
EARLY TONIGHT. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LATE THIS WEEK A SLOW MOVING
UPPER LOW WILL BRING A RETURN OF COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A SPRAWLING UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL PUSH AN
EAST-WEST TROUGH SOUTH ACROSS PA TODAY.
COLD AIR ALOFT WITH MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
HELP TO SPARK SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS
ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO GROW INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE
DROPPING OFF RAPIDLY AFTER ABOUT 22-23Z.
A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTH
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS...HOWEVER
LOW CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO
MIX OUT...WITH IMPROVEMENT LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL TUESDAY
MORNING.
LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE.
DESPITE THE RECENT SPELL OF CHILLY WEATHER...AVERAGE TEMPS FOR
THE MONTH ARE STILL RUNNING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL AT MANY LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS AND THE APPROACH OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL BRING A FEW DAYS OF DRY AND NOTICEABLY MILDER
CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WED.
TUESDAY WILL START OFF CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...MAINLY THE
NORTH...BEFORE INCREASINGLY SUNNY CONDITIONS DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
LATE APRIL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN APPEARS CONSISTENT WITH AT LEAST
THE LAST TWO DAYS. BLOCKY/AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEK
THEN BECOME MORE ZONAL DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
A SLOW MOVING SRN STREAM UPPER LOW WILL EMERGE INTO THE SERN TO
MID ATLC STATES DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. A DISTINCT AND RATHER
POTENT SHOT OF NRN STREAM UPPER ENERGY...IN THE FORM OF A CLOSED
LOW DROPPING SSE FROM THE UPPER GLAKES REGION...SHOULD CAPTURE
THE SFC LOW /PROGGED BY MOST 00Z-06Z MODEL AND ENS GUIDANCE TO BE
NEAR THE OUTER BANKS OF NC THURSDAY MORNING/.
PHASING OF THESE FEATURES WILL COINCIDE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
HIGHLY ANOMALOUS EAST-NERLY FLOW IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER LATE
THUR INTO FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND ERN PENN. PWATS IN EXCESS OF
OVER 1 INCH NEAR THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ COAST WILL BE TRANSPORTED
NWWD UP/OVER THE SHALLOW COLD AIR ENTRENCHED ACROSS CENTRAL PENN
AND THE SUSQ VALLEY. THUS CONTINUED THE HIEST POPS DURING THE
PERIOD FOR WED NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. GIVEN THE BLOCKY NATURE OF
THE PATTERN...WES RELUCTANT IN CLEARING OUR PCPN TOO FAST FRIDAY
MORNING.
COOL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER
LOW. WITH RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE WEEKEND...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND
TO NEAR AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE LOOKS TO BRING SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPS BACK FOR NEXT
TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HAD A SHOWER AT THE OFFICE AT 4 PM...WITH SOME SMALL HAIL.
SHOWERS SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF AS THE SUN SETS...AND THE
UPPER LVL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROP SE.
MAIN CHANGE EARLY ON WAS TO HOLD ONTO THE WIND AND SHOWERS
FOR AN EXTRA HOUR OR SO.
THE OTHER CHANGE WAS TO UP THE WINDS SOME ON TUE...AND EARLIER.
THIS BASED ON THE GRADIENT...TIME OF SUNRISE...AND RATHER COLD
AIR ALOFT.
21Z TAFS SENT.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE WITH PASSING SHOWERS. STRATO-CU
CEILINGS IN THE 3000-6000` RANGE ARE COVERING THE REMAINDER OF
THE FLYING AREA.
WINDS FROM 290-320 WILL GUST UP TO 20KTS AT TIMES THIS AFTN.
LOOK FOR SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING WITH MVFR
CEILINGS LIKELY LINGERING INTO TUESDAY MORNING OVER WESTERN AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH A
TENDENCY FOR CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY.
OUTLOOK...
WED...NO SIG WX.
THU-FRI...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
SAT...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
358 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
EARLY TONIGHT. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LATE THIS WEEK A SLOW MOVING
UPPER LOW WILL BRING A RETURN OF COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A SPRAWLING UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL PUSH AN
EAST-WEST TROUGH SOUTH ACROSS PA TODAY.
COLD AIR ALOFT WITH MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
HELP TO SPARK SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS
ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO GROW INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE
DROPPING OFF RAPIDLY AFTER ABOUT 22-23Z.
A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTH
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS...HOWEVER
LOW CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO
MIX OUT...WITH IMPROVEMENT LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL TUESDAY
MORNING.
LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE.
DESPITE THE RECENT SPELL OF CHILLY WEATHER...AVERAGE TEMPS FOR
THE MONTH ARE STILL RUNNING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL AT MANY LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS AND THE APPROACH OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL BRING A FEW DAYS OF DRY AND NOTICEABLY MILDER
CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WED.
TUESDAY WILL START OFF CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...MAINLY THE
NORTH...BEFORE INCREASINGLY SUNNY CONDITIONS DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
LATE APRIL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN APPEARS CONSISTENT WITH AT LEAST
THE LAST TWO DAYS. BLOCKY/AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEK
THEN BECOME MORE ZONAL DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
A SLOW MOVING SRN STREAM UPPER LOW WILL EMERGE INTO THE SERN TO
MID ATLC STATES DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. A DISTINCT AND RATHER
POTENT SHOT OF NRN STREAM UPPER ENERGY...IN THE FORM OF A CLOSED
LOW DROPPING SSE FROM THE UPPER GLAKES REGION...SHOULD CAPTURE
THE SFC LOW /PROGGED BY MOST 00Z-06Z MODEL AND ENS GUIDANCE TO BE
NEAR THE OUTER BANKS OF NC THURSDAY MORNING/.
PHASING OF THESE FEATURES WILL COINCIDE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
HIGHLY ANOMALOUS EAST-NERLY FLOW IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER LATE
THUR INTO FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND ERN PENN. PWATS IN EXCESS OF
OVER 1 INCH NEAR THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ COAST WILL BE TRANSPORTED
NWWD UP/OVER THE SHALLOW COLD AIR ENTRENCHED ACROSS CENTRAL PENN
AND THE SUSQ VALLEY. THUS CONTINUED THE HIEST POPS DURING THE
PERIOD FOR WED NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. GIVEN THE BLOCKY NATURE OF
THE PATTERN...WES RELUCTANT IN CLEARING OUR PCPN TOO FAST FRIDAY
MORNING.
COOL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER
LOW. WITH RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE WEEKEND...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND
TO NEAR AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE LOOKS TO BRING SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPS BACK FOR NEXT
TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE WITH PASSING SHOWERS. STRATO-CU
CEILINGS IN THE 3000-6000` RANGE ARE COVERING THE REMAINDER OF
THE FLYING AREA.
WINDS FROM 290-320 WILL GUST UP TO 20KTS AT TIMES THIS AFTN.
LOOK FOR SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING WITH MVFR
CEILINGS LIKELY LINGERING INTO TUESDAY MORNING OVER WESTERN AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH A
TENDENCY FOR CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...MVFR CIGS WEST IMPROVING TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.
WED...NO SIG WX.
THU-FRI...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
SAT...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
113 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
EARLY TONIGHT. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LATE THIS WEEK A SLOW MOVING
UPPER LOW WILL BRING A RETURN OF COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SPRAWLING UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL PUSH AN
EAST-WEST TROUGH SOUTH ACROSS PA TODAY.
COLD AIR ALOFT WITH MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
HELP TO SPARK SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS
ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO GROW INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE
DROPPING OFF RAPIDLY AFTER ABOUT 22-23Z.
A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTH
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS...HOWEVER
LOW CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO
MIX OUT...WITH IMPROVEMENT LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL TUESDAY
MORNING.
LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE.
DESPITE THE RECENT SPELL OF CHILLY WEATHER...AVERAGE TEMPS FOR
THE MONTH ARE STILL RUNNING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL AT MANY LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS AND THE APPROACH OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL BRING A FEW DAYS OF DRY AND NOTICEABLY MILDER
CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WED.
TUESDAY WILL START OFF CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...MAINLY THE
NORTH...BEFORE INCREASINGLY SUNNY CONDITIONS DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
LATE APRIL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING SRN STREAM UPPER LOW WILL EMERGE INTO THE SERN TO
MID ATLC STATES DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. A DISTINCT AND RATHER
POTENT SHOT OF UPPER ENERGY...IN THE FORM OF A CLOSED LOW
DROPPING SSE FROM THE UPPER GLAKES REGION SHOULD CAPTURE THE SFC
LOW /PROGGED BY MOST 00Z-06Z MODEL AND ENS GUIDANCE TO BE NEAR THE
OUTER BANKS OF NC THURSDAY MORNING/.
PHASING OF THESE FEATURES WILL COINCIDE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
HIGHLY ANOMALOUS EAST-NERLY FLOW IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER LATE
THUR INTO FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND ERN PENN.
PWATS IN EXCESS OF OVER 1 INCH NEAR THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ COAST
WILL BE TRANSPORTED NWWD UP/OVER THE SHALLOW COLD AIR ENTRENCHED
ACROSS CENTRAL PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY.
COORDINATED WITH SURROUNDING WFOS TO BOOST POPS /AND THE
NORTHEAST TO NORTHERLY WIND/ FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
WE EVEN SPECKLED IN SOME WET SNOW MIXING IN LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE LAURELS AOA 2400 FT MSL.
THE MUCH COOLER GFS/GEFS TEMPS APPEAR MORE REALISTIC AT THIS
POINT AS CLOUDS THICKEN.../AS RAIN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION
FORM THE SOUTH AND WEST/ AND FALLS THROUGH THE WEDGE OF RELATIVELY
DRIER/COOLER AIR NEAR THE SFC.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE WITH PASSING SHOWERS. STRATO-CU
CEILINGS IN THE 3000-6000` RANGE ARE COVERING THE REMAINDER OF
THE FLYING AREA.
WINDS FROM 290-320 WILL GUST UP TO 20KTS AT TIMES THIS AFTN.
LOOK FOR SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING WITH MVFR
CEILINGS LIKELY LINGERING INTO TUESDAY MORNING OVER WESTERN AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH A
TENDENCY FOR CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...MVFR CIGS WEST IMPROVING TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.
WED...NO SIG WX.
THU-FRI...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
SAT...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1114 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LATE THIS WEEK A
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL BRING A RETURN OF COOL AND SHOWERY
CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SPRAWLING UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL PUSH A
DISTINCT EAST-WEST TROUGH SOUTH ACROSS PA TODAY.
COLD AIR ALOFT WITH MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
HELP TO SPARK SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS AND CONTINUING TO
GROW INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DROPPING OFF RAPIDLY AFTER
ABOUT 22-23Z.
HEIGHTS WILL RISE A BIT...BY JUST 10-20 DECAMETERS...LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT. COMBINE THIS WITHE DECREASING MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...AND FORMATION OF A NEAR ISOTHERMAL LAYER BETWEEN 650 AND
600 MB...AND WE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CLOUDS...AND
SHOWERS IN MOST LOCATIONS.
MAX TEMPS WILL AVERAGE SOME 10-15 DEG BELOW NORMAL TODAY. DESPITE
THE RECENT SPELL OF CHILLY WEATHER...AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE MONTH
ARE STILL RUNNING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL AT MANY LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BECOME CONFINED TO THE NRN AND
WESTERN MTNS OF THE STATE TONIGHT...AS A 2-4 KFT THICK ISOTHERMAL
LAYER IN THE MID LEVELS CAPS OF THE CLOUD DEPTH ELSEWHERE. WHILE A
FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS...THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY AND SCENT MTNS OF PENN WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT WITH A NORTH TO NWRLY BREEZE OF 6-8 KTS.
LOWS EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN
MTNS...AND L40S IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
TUESDAY WILL FEATURE MORE SHALLOW...AND LESS COVERAGE OF THE
STRATO CU CLOUDS THAN MONDAY. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
TUESDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW MTNS.
HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME IN LATE APRIL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS/APPROACH OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT WILL BRING A FEW DAYS OF DRY AND NOTICEABLY MILDER
CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WED.
A SLOW MOVING SRN STREAM UPPER LOW WILL EMERGE INTO THE SERN TO
MID ATLC STATES DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. A DISTINCT AND RATHER
POTENT SHOT OF UPPER ENERGY...IN THE FORM OF A CLOSED LOW
DROPPING SSE FROM THE UPPER GLAKES REGION SHOULD CAPTURE THE SFC
LOW /PROGGED BY MOST 00Z-06Z MODEL AND ENS GUIDANCE TO BE NEAR THE
OUTER BANKS OF NC THURSDAY MORNING/.
PHASING OF THESE FEATURES WILL COINCIDE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
HIGHLY ANOMALOUS EAST-NERLY FLOW IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER LATE
THUR INTO FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND ERN PENN.
PWATS IN EXCESS OF OVER 1 INCH NEAR THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ COAST
WILL BE TRANSPORTED NWWD UP/OVER THE SHALLOW COLD AIR ENTRENCHED
ACROSS CENTRAL PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY.
COORDINATED WITH SURROUNDING WFOS TO BOOST POPS /AND THE
NORTHEAST TO NORTHERLY WIND/ FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
WE EVEN SPECKLED IN SOME WET SNOW MIXING IN LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE LAURELS AOA 2400 FT MSL.
THE MUCH COOLER GFS/GEFS TEMPS APPEAR MORE REALISTIC AT THIS
POINT AS CLOUDS THICKEN.../AS RAIN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION
FORM THE SOUTH AND WEST/ AND FALLS THROUGH THE WEDGE OF RELATIVELY
DRIER/COOLER AIR NEAR THE SFC.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUD BASES ARE LOWERING OVER THE NORTH AS EXPECTED. BRADFORD HAS
COME DOWN TO 1100` OVERCAST CAUSING SOME CONCERN THEY COULD SEE
IFR CEILINGS DEVELOP BEFORE THE DAY IS OVER. OTHERWISE I AM
EXPECTING CEILINGS TO REMAIN IN THE 1000-2000` RANGE WITH PASSING
SHOWERS OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OR EVEN SOME WET SNOW.
ELSEWHERE CEILINGS SHOULD STAY MAINLY ABOVE 3000` BUT COULD BE
BRIEFLY MVFR IN DEVELOPING SCATTERED SHOWERS.
WINDS FROM 290-320 WILL GUST UP TO 20KTS AT TIMES THIS AFTN. LOOK
FOR SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING WITH LITTLE TO
NO CHANGE IN FCST CIGS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...MVFR CIGS WEST/LOW-END VFR CIGS CENTRAL AND EAST.
WED...NO SIG WX.
THU-FRI...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
116 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015
.AVIATION...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE 18Z SOUTHEAST TEXAS TAFS CENTER
AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... AND
THEN INCREASING WINDS/ LOWERED CIGS WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CEILINGS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION... WITH SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING FROM NEAR LBX
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. ANTICIPATE COVERAGE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING. GIVEN ANTICIPATED ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED NATURE OF ACTIVITY... WILL ADVERTISE VCTS MENTION AT ALL
TERMINALS AND HANDLE TSRA IMPACTS AT TERMINALS WITH AMENDMENTS.
AMPLE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE TODAY RAISE CONCERNS FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE
TERMINALS /HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD BETWEEN 21 AND 03Z/... WITH ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE FROM MORE ROBUST ACTIVITY.
AS AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EJECTS TOWARDS THE GULF COAST
STATES LATER TONIGHT... IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
TERMINALS TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS
/WITH STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE/ IN ITS WAKE ON TUESDAY MORNING.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO REACH THE HOUSTON TERMINALS AROUND 03Z...
CLEARING THE COASTAL SITES BETWEEN 06 AND 09Z. A PERIOD OF MVFR
TO EVEN IFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT...
BEFORE IMPROVING TOWARDS/AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
HUFFMAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/
UPDATE...
SOME ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...AN NWS STORM SURVEY IS ENROUTE TO
THE GRIMES COUNTY AREA TO ASSESS DAMAGE. WE WILL UPDATE WITH
INFORMATION AS WE RECEIVE IT FROM THE ASSESSMENT.
PEAK WINDS MEASURED LAST NIGHT
CONROE ASOS 62 MPH AT 435 AM
8SE OF NAVASOTA 55 MPH AT 412 AM
HUNTSVILLE ASOS 54 MPH AT 452 AM
1N OF WALLER 50 MPH AT 422 AM
BRENHAM AWOS 49 MPH AT 335 AM
45
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/
UPDATE...
THE AREA HAS BEEN STABILIZED FOR THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE PARED
BACK THE RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING...BUT...THIS AFTERNOON IS A
VERY DIFFERENT STORY. A SQUALL LINE THAT RACED THROUGH THE REGION
KNOCKING DOWN TREES IS WELL INTO LA WITH SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CWA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY (WITH A SMALL CLUSTER OF
STORMS) IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS DOWN TO
63-67 OVER SETX. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM
THE NEARSHORE WATERS UP THROUGH MATAGORDA BAY TO GIDDINGS TO JUST
WEST OF FORT WORTH. WATER VAPOR/UA CLEARLY SHOWS A DRYING TREND
ALOFT WITH STRONG SW FLOW OF 50+ KNOTS AT 500MB AND 80+ KNOTS AT
300MB. AS WE HEAT UP AND THE UPPER LOW NEAR WICHITA FALLS
CONTINUES TO TREK EAST THIS SHOULD PLACE SETX IN A FAVORABLE
REGION FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT...LL
CONVERGENCE AND A RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE. SB CAPE
VALUES SOAR TO 3500-4500 J/KG OVER THE NORTH WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR ALOFT AND LOW LEVELS ONLY SOMEWHAT SHEARED
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED
TORNADOES...THOUGH PROBABLY A LOWER THREAT FOR TORNADOES BUT THAT
IS A LOT OF CAPE IF WE CAN REACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK. THE STORMS
SHOULD SWING EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ENDING THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER. SPC HAS KEPT THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK. HEAVY
RAIN THREAT POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. COLD
FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE HOUSTON AREA AFTER 2 AM WITH MODERATE
COLD ADVECTION. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY.
45
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 717 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/
AVIATION...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS LOW DUE TO THE VARIABILITY IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS. THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL AGREED WITH THE GLOBAL
MODELS IN MOVING THE CURRENT CONVECTION EAST OF THE AREA WHILE
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE UPPER LOW IN NM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
FOR THIS MORNING...DO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FROM KIAH NORTHWARD.
THE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FROM KHOU TO THE COAST SHOULD IMPROVE
BY THE MID MORNING PERIOD. WILL ADD THE MENTION OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE WAS FORECASTING LOW CEILINGS...RAW MODEL OUTPUT
SUGGESTED BEST CHANCES WILL BE MORE TOWARD THE COAST. AT LEAST
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM KHOU TO THE COAST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AT LEAST MOVE THROUGH KCLL
AND KUTS BY AROUND 08Z...AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH KCXO AND KIAH BY
12Z.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 60 67 49 72 53 / 40 20 10 0 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 63 70 49 74 54 / 40 20 10 0 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 69 73 56 71 63 / 20 10 10 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1100 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
.UPDATE...
SOME ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...AN NWS STORM SURVEY IS ENROUTE TO
THE GRIMES COUNTY AREA TO ASSESS DAMAGE. WE WILL UPDATE WITH
INFORMATION AS WE RECEIVE IT FROM THE ASSESSMENT.
PEAK WINDS MEASURED LAST NIGHT
CONROE ASOS 62 MPH AT 435 AM
8SE OF NAVASOTA 55 MPH AT 412 AM
HUNTSVILLE ASOS 54 MPH AT 452 AM
1N OF WALLER 50 MPH AT 422 AM
BRENHAM AWOS 49 MPH AT 335 AM
45
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/
UPDATE...
THE AREA HAS BEEN STABILIZED FOR THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE PARED
BACK THE RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING...BUT...THIS AFTERNOON IS A
VERY DIFFERENT STORY. A SQUALL LINE THAT RACED THROUGH THE REGION
KNOCKING DOWN TREES IS WELL INTO LA WITH SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CWA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY (WITH A SMALL CLUSTER OF
STORMS) IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS DOWN TO
63-67 OVER SETX. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM
THE NEARSHORE WATERS UP THROUGH MATAGORDA BAY TO GIDDINGS TO JUST
WEST OF FORT WORTH. WATER VAPOR/UA CLEARLY SHOWS A DRYING TREND
ALOFT WITH STRONG SW FLOW OF 50+ KNOTS AT 500MB AND 80+ KNOTS AT
300MB. AS WE HEAT UP AND THE UPPER LOW NEAR WICHITA FALLS
CONTINUES TO TREK EAST THIS SHOULD PLACE SETX IN A FAVORABLE
REGION FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT...LL
CONVERGENCE AND A RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE. SB CAPE
VALUES SOAR TO 3500-4500 J/KG OVER THE NORTH WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR ALOFT AND LOW LEVELS ONLY SOMEWHAT SHEARED
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED
TORNADOES...THOUGH PROBABLY A LOWER THREAT FOR TORNADOES BUT THAT
IS A LOT OF CAPE IF WE CAN REACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK. THE STORMS
SHOULD SWING EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ENDING THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER. SPC HAS KEPT THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK. HEAVY
RAIN THREAT POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. COLD
FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE HOUSTON AREA AFTER 2 AM WITH MODERATE
COLD ADVECTION. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY.
45
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 717 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/
AVIATION...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS LOW DUE TO THE VARIABILITY IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS. THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL AGREED WITH THE GLOBAL
MODELS IN MOVING THE CURRENT CONVECTION EAST OF THE AREA WHILE
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE UPPER LOW IN NM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
FOR THIS MORNING...DO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FROM KIAH NORTHWARD.
THE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FROM KHOU TO THE COAST SHOULD IMPROVE
BY THE MID MORNING PERIOD. WILL ADD THE MENTION OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE WAS FORECASTING LOW CEILINGS...RAW MODEL OUTPUT
SUGGESTED BEST CHANCES WILL BE MORE TOWARD THE COAST. AT LEAST
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM KHOU TO THE COAST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AT LEAST MOVE THROUGH KCLL
AND KUTS BY AROUND 08Z...AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH KCXO AND KIAH BY
12Z.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 81 60 67 49 72 / 50 40 20 10 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 83 63 70 49 74 / 50 40 20 10 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 69 73 56 71 / 50 20 10 10 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...45
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1040 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AREA HAS BEEN STABILIZED FOR THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE PARED
BACK THE RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING...BUT...THIS AFTERNOON IS A
VERY DIFFERENT STORY. A SQUALL LINE THAT RACED THROUGH THE REGION
KNOCKING DOWN TREES IS WELL INTO LA WITH SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CWA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY (WITH A SMALL CLUSTER OF
STORMS) IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS DOWN TO
63-67 OVER SETX. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM
THE NEARSHORE WATERS UP THROUGH MATAGORDA BAY TO GIDDINGS TO JUST
WEST OF FORT WORTH. WATER VAPOR/UA CLEARLY SHOWS A DRYING TREND
ALOFT WITH STRONG SW FLOW OF 50+ KNOTS AT 500MB AND 80+ KNOTS AT
300MB. AS WE HEAT UP AND THE UPPER LOW NEAR WICHITA FALLS
CONTINUES TO TREK EAST THIS SHOULD PLACE SETX IN A FAVORABLE
REGION FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT...LL
CONVERGENCE AND A RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE. SB CAPE
VALUES SOAR TO 3500-4500 J/KG OVER THE NORTH WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR ALOFT AND LOW LEVELS ONLY SOMEWHAT SHEARED
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED
TORNADOES...THOUGH PROBABLY A LOWER THREAT FOR TORNADOES BUT THAT
IS A LOT OF CAPE IF WE CAN REACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK. THE STORMS
SHOULD SWING EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ENDING THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER. SPC HAS KEPT THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK. HEAVY
RAIN THREAT POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. COLD
FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE HOUSTON AREA AFTER 2 AM WITH MODERATE
COLD ADVECTION. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY.
45
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 717 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/
AVIATION...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS LOW DUE TO THE VARIABILITY IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS. THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL AGREED WITH THE GLOBAL
MODELS IN MOVING THE CURRENT CONVECTION EAST OF THE AREA WHILE
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE UPPER LOW IN NM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
FOR THIS MORNING...DO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FROM KIAH NORTHWARD.
THE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FROM KHOU TO THE COAST SHOULD IMPROVE
BY THE MID MORNING PERIOD. WILL ADD THE MENTION OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE WAS FORECASTING LOW CEILINGS...RAW MODEL OUTPUT
SUGGESTED BEST CHANCES WILL BE MORE TOWARD THE COAST. AT LEAST
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM KHOU TO THE COAST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AT LEAST MOVE THROUGH KCLL
AND KUTS BY AROUND 08Z...AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH KCXO AND KIAH BY
12Z.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 81 60 67 49 72 / 50 40 20 10 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 83 63 70 49 74 / 50 40 20 10 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 69 73 56 71 / 50 20 10 10 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...45
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
717 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
40
&&
.AVIATION...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS LOW DUE TO THE VARIABILITY IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS. THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL AGREED WITH THE GLOBAL
MODELS IN MOVING THE CURRENT CONVECTION EAST OF THE AREA WHILE
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE UPPER LOW IN NM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
FOR THIS MORNING...DO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FROM KIAH NORTHWARD.
THE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FROM KHOU TO THE COAST SHOULD IMPROVE
BY THE MID MORNING PERIOD. WILL ADD THE MENTION OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE WAS FORECASTING LOW CEILINGS...RAW MODEL OUTPUT
SUGGESTED BEST CHANCES WILL BE MORE TOWARD THE COAST. AT LEAST
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM KHOU TO THE COAST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AT LEAST MOVE THROUGH KCLL
AND KUTS BY AROUND 08Z...AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH KCXO AND KIAH BY
12Z.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/
UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO CANCEL THE REST OF THE TORNADO WATCH.
DISCUSSION...
THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS DIMINISHED THIS MORNING. CANCELED
THE REST OF THE TORNADO WATCH. NEW ZONES OUT BY 700 AM. 43
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/
UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO CANCEL MUCH OF THE TORNADO WATCH AND TO LOWER
POPS FOR THIS MORNING. 43
DISCUSSION...
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS DIMINISHED FOR MUCH OF SE TX AND
WILL ISSUE NEW ZONES TO CLEAN THINGS UP. STILL HAVE SOME CONCERNS
FOR REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN AND WILL LEAVE SEVERE WORDING IN THE
ZFP FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL. NEW ZONES OUT SHORTLY. 43
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/
DISCUSSION...
AT 3 AM...A LINEAR MCS IS JUST ENTERING THE CWA. IT APPEARS THAT
THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BEFORE 12Z AND MAY
PRODUCE SOME WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL BEFORE EXITING SE TX. THINGS GET
MORE COMPLICATED FOR THIS AFTN. SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY DOMINATE IN
THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN...BUT FCST SOUNDINGS
SHOW A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY FOR THE AFTN. NOT SURE HOW THINGS
WILL PLAY OUT BUT WILL KEEP HIGH END CHANCE POPS FOR NOW AND SEE
IF CONVECTION CAN REFIRE. WILL ALSO MAINTAIN CHANCE OF SEVERE FOR
THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS COLDER AIR ALOFT WOULD SUPPORT A HAIL
THREAT. WILL BE TWEAKING POPS BEFORE THE MORNING ZFP IS ISSUED.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SE TX TONIGHT AND THIS FEATURE COULD ALSO
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA. THE FRONT WILL USHER IN
COOLER TEMPS AND BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS. MAV GUIDANCE IS BULLISH
WITH WINDS AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
WRAP AROUND CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. SUNSHINE
SHOULD RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. DEW
PTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S SO HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE AS
PLEASANT AS THE TEMPERATURES. AFTER ALL THE ACTIVE WEATHER OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...IT`LL BE NICE TO GET A 5-6 DAY STRETCH
OF NICE WEATHER. MOISTURE RETURN WON`T REALLY GET GOING UNTIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK SO PULLED RAIN CHANCES FROM NEXT WEEKEND. 43
MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE GULF WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING AS INFLOW INCREASES TOWARD A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THESE WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH LATER TODAY...
ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
WITH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT INCREASING TO ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
TUESDAY AT LEAST OVER THE GULF WATERS. THE STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL LEAD TO WATER LEVELS FALLING TO BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 FEET BELOW
NORMAL IN THE WESTERN SHORES OF THE BAYS AND IN THE HOUSTON SHIP
CHANNEL. THE WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 80 60 67 49 72 / 50 40 20 10 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 82 63 70 49 74 / 50 40 20 10 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 78 69 73 56 71 / 40 20 10 10 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
221 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
.DISCUSSION...FCST UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TORNADO WATCH IN
EFFECT UNITL 14Z MONDAY FOR THE NRN COUNTIES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 100 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/
DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...IFR/MVFR VISIBILITIES OWING TO FOG/MIST GENERALLY EAST
OF U.S. 281 IN ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACRS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A LINE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...CURRENTLY IN ADVANCE OF THE
BOUNDARY...WL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD OVERNIGHT AND AFFECT MAINLY THE
NRN SECTIONS. EXPECT IFR/MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASING N/NW WIND
AND DRYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED DRG THE LATE MORNING/AFTN HOURS
MONDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED GRIDS TO FIT BETTER WITH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. DID LOWER TEMPERATURES IN A COUPLE OF
LOCATIONS (MAINLY NORTH AND WEST). LAPS DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW
STRONG CAP. NEW NAM12 IS SHOWING CONVECTION ENTERING NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF CWFA MAINLY BETWEEN 09Z- 12Z...THEN WEAKENS IT AS IT
KEEPS A PRETTY STRONG CAP IN PLACE. THUS...HAVE KEPT POPS AS-IS
SINCE EARLY EVENING UPDATE...KEEPING CHANCE TO THE NORTH AND
SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE SOUTH. NEW HRRR IS KEEPING CONVECTION OUT OF
ARE THROUGH 12Z. WE SHALL SEE. UNFORTUNATELY, WE WILL HAVE TO
SEE...BUT STILL SUSPECT ANY STRONG CONVECTION LIKELY OVER THE
NORTHERN AREAS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT...POSSIBLY STRONG WITH SEVERE
NOT BEING RULED OUT (BUT FEEL BETTER CHANCES STAY TO THE NORTH
WITH LEFT-FRONT QUAD OF UPPER JET POSITION). PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
ISSUED. NO NOTABLE CHANGES TO THE COASTAL WATER FORECAST AT THIS
TIME...ALTHOUGH DID ADD FOG TO THE OFFSHORE AS WELL. CWF WILL BE
ISSUED AROUND 10 PM.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 732 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/
DISCUSSION...SOUNDING JUST CAME IN WITH STRONG CAP (23.8C AT
850MB). THE 64K DOLLAR QUESTION IS WILL THIS CAP HOLD OR WILL
CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS IN THE HILL COUNTRY BE ABLE TO MAKE IT
INTO THE CWFA (AND HOW FAR SOUTH). MESO-SCALE MODELS GIVE AREA A
BRUSH OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS (MORE STRONG) WITH SYNOPTIC MODELS
BEING A BIT MORE ROBUST WITH CONVECTION A BIT FARTHER SOUTH.
BELIEVE AT THIS TIME IS THAT STRONG TO POSSIBLY ISOLATED SEVERE
CONVECION MAY OCCUR OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN AREAS
LATE TONIGHT/TOWARD MORNING...WITH CAP LIKELY HOLDING ENOUGH TO
PRECULDE STRONGER CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST.
HOWEVER...WITH STILL UNCERTAINTY HAVE HELD OFF ON MENTIONING
SEVERE AT THIS TIME (SEEMS THAT EL-NINO CAN BRING SOME BONUS
CONVECTION AT TIMES). HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND LOOK
AT NEW MODEL DATA AND ADJUST ACCORINGLY/AS-NEEDED. HAVE UPDATED
GRIDS TO LOWER POPS THIS EVENING (KEPT POPS AS-IS OVERNIGHT)...BUT
ALSO INCLUDED FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN AREAS AS FOG IS
ALREADY FORMING (MAYBE COMBINATION OF HAZE AND FOG) SO HAVE
UPDATED FORECAST. DID NOT MESS WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES JUST YET.
PRODUCTS ARE OUT.
MARINE...INCLUDED FOG FOR THE COASTALS...AND WILL WRITE A MWS
CONCERNING FOG CONCERNS (AND IF WORSENS WILL ISSUE MWW...DENSE FOG
ADVIOSORY). WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCEC/SCA TONIGHT BUT WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR IN CASE ANY RISE/FALL COUPLETS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/
DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATION BRIEFING.
AVIATION...VFR NEXT 24 HRS AT KLRD. IFR/LIFR THIS EVENING AND
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HRS FOR KCRP/KVCT/KALI. THICK HAZE WILL
EXPAND INLAND FROM THE COAST THIS EVENING ALONG WITH STRATUS
RESULTING IN IFR/LIFR VSBYS/CIGS FOR EASTERN HALF OF S TX. SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PUSH SE ACROSS KLRD AOA 06Z AND REACH KALI/KCRP/KVCT
AROUND 09-11Z. CIGS AND VSBYS XPCTD TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER SFC
TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH. SCT CONVECTION MAY DVLP TONIGHT ACROSS TX
HILL COUNTRY AND SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT /AHEAD OF BOUNDARY/ AND
IMPACT KVCT BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...AS SUCH HAVE PROB30 FOR
CONVECTION IN TAF. KCRP/KLRD/KALI XPCTD TO REMAIN DRY AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...FUTURE TAF PKGS/AMENDMENTS MAY NEED TO INCLUDE
CONVECTION FOR LATE TONIGHT FOR KCRP/KALI. MAIN COLD FRONT WILL
THEN PUSH THROUGH TERMINALS A FEW HOURS AFTER SFC TROUGH RESULTING
IN CLEARING SKIES FOR MOST OF MON AND NW SFC WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 85 66 76 56 76 / 30 10 10 10 0
VICTORIA 84 62 73 52 75 / 50 10 10 10 0
LAREDO 90 64 78 56 80 / 20 10 10 10 0
ALICE 89 64 77 55 78 / 30 10 10 10 0
ROCKPORT 80 66 74 59 74 / 40 10 10 10 0
COTULLA 88 61 77 52 79 / 30 10 10 10 0
KINGSVILLE 87 65 77 56 78 / 30 10 10 10 0
NAVY CORPUS 81 67 74 61 74 / 30 10 10 10 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
WC/87...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
100 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...IFR/MVFR VISIBILITIES OWING TO FOG/MIST GENERALLY EAST
OF U.S. 281 IN ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACRS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A LINE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...CURRENTLY IN ADVANCE OF THE
BOUNDARY...WL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD OVERNIGHT AND AFFECT MAINLY THE
NRN SECTIONS. EXPECT IFR/MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASING N/NW WIND
AND DRYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED DRG THE LATE MORNING/AFTN HOURS
MONDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED GRIDS TO FIT BETTER WITH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. DID LOWER TEMPERATURES IN A COUPLE OF
LOCATIONS (MAINLY NORTH AND WEST). LAPS DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW
STRONG CAP. NEW NAM12 IS SHOWING CONVECTION ENTERING NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF CWFA MAINLY BETWEEN 09Z- 12Z...THEN WEAKENS IT AS IT
KEEPS A PRETTY STRONG CAP IN PLACE. THUS...HAVE KEPT POPS AS-IS
SINCE EARLY EVENING UPDATE...KEEPING CHANCE TO THE NORTH AND
SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE SOUTH. NEW HRRR IS KEEPING CONVECTION OUT OF
ARE THROUGH 12Z. WE SHALL SEE. UNFORTUNATELY, WE WILL HAVE TO
SEE...BUT STILL SUSPECT ANY STRONG CONVECTION LIKELY OVER THE
NORTHERN AREAS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT...POSSIBLY STRONG WITH SEVERE
NOT BEING RULED OUT (BUT FEEL BETTER CHANCES STAY TO THE NORTH
WITH LEFT-FRONT QUAD OF UPPER JET POSITION). PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
ISSUED. NO NOTABLE CHANGES TO THE COASTAL WATER FORECAST AT THIS
TIME...ALTHOUGH DID ADD FOG TO THE OFFSHORE AS WELL. CWF WILL BE
ISSUED AROUND 10 PM.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 732 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/
DISCUSSION...SOUNDING JUST CAME IN WITH STRONG CAP (23.8C AT
850MB). THE 64K DOLLAR QUESTION IS WILL THIS CAP HOLD OR WILL
CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS IN THE HILL COUNTRY BE ABLE TO MAKE IT
INTO THE CWFA (AND HOW FAR SOUTH). MESO-SCALE MODELS GIVE AREA A
BRUSH OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS (MORE STRONG) WITH SYNOPTIC MODELS
BEING A BIT MORE ROBUST WITH CONVECTION A BIT FARTHER SOUTH.
BELIEVE AT THIS TIME IS THAT STRONG TO POSSIBLY ISOLATED SEVERE
CONVECION MAY OCCUR OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN AREAS
LATE TONIGHT/TOWARD MORNING...WITH CAP LIKELY HOLDING ENOUGH TO
PRECULDE STRONGER CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST.
HOWEVER...WITH STILL UNCERTAINTY HAVE HELD OFF ON MENTIONING
SEVERE AT THIS TIME (SEEMS THAT EL-NINO CAN BRING SOME BONUS
CONVECTION AT TIMES). HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND LOOK
AT NEW MODEL DATA AND ADJUST ACCORINGLY/AS-NEEDED. HAVE UPDATED
GRIDS TO LOWER POPS THIS EVENING (KEPT POPS AS-IS OVERNIGHT)...BUT
ALSO INCLUDED FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN AREAS AS FOG IS
ALREADY FORMING (MAYBE COMBINATION OF HAZE AND FOG) SO HAVE
UPDATED FORECAST. DID NOT MESS WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES JUST YET.
PRODUCTS ARE OUT.
MARINE...INCLUDED FOG FOR THE COASTALS...AND WILL WRITE A MWS
CONCERNING FOG CONCERNS (AND IF WORSENS WILL ISSUE MWW...DENSE FOG
ADVIOSORY). WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCEC/SCA TONIGHT BUT WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR IN CASE ANY RISE/FALL COUPLETS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/
DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATION BRIEFING.
AVIATION...VFR NEXT 24 HRS AT KLRD. IFR/LIFR THIS EVENING AND
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HRS FOR KCRP/KVCT/KALI. THICK HAZE WILL
EXPAND INLAND FROM THE COAST THIS EVENING ALONG WITH STRATUS
RESULTING IN IFR/LIFR VSBYS/CIGS FOR EASTERN HALF OF S TX. SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PUSH SE ACROSS KLRD AOA 06Z AND REACH KALI/KCRP/KVCT
AROUND 09-11Z. CIGS AND VSBYS XPCTD TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER SFC
TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH. SCT CONVECTION MAY DVLP TONIGHT ACROSS TX
HILL COUNTRY AND SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT /AHEAD OF BOUNDARY/ AND
IMPACT KVCT BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...AS SUCH HAVE PROB30 FOR
CONVECTION IN TAF. KCRP/KLRD/KALI XPCTD TO REMAIN DRY AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...FUTURE TAF PKGS/AMENDMENTS MAY NEED TO INCLUDE
CONVECTION FOR LATE TONIGHT FOR KCRP/KALI. MAIN COLD FRONT WILL
THEN PUSH THROUGH TERMINALS A FEW HOURS AFTER SFC TROUGH RESULTING
IN CLEARING SKIES FOR MOST OF MON AND NW SFC WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 85 66 77 56 75 / 30 10 10 10 0
VICTORIA 84 62 74 52 74 / 50 10 10 10 0
LAREDO 90 64 78 56 80 / 10 10 10 10 0
ALICE 89 64 78 55 77 / 30 10 10 10 0
ROCKPORT 80 66 74 59 73 / 40 10 10 10 0
COTULLA 88 61 77 52 78 / 20 10 10 10 0
KINGSVILLE 87 65 79 56 77 / 30 10 10 10 0
NAVY CORPUS 81 67 75 61 73 / 30 10 10 10 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
WC/87...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND
855 PM PDT TUE APR 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DRY AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATE IN THE
WEEK AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE MAY
OCCUR AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES
AT 02Z SHOWED THE COLD FRONTAL REMAINS HUNG UP IN THE CASCADE
FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER CASCADES. CLEARING WAS ALREADY OCCURRING ALONG
THE COAST AND WEST SIDE OF THE OREGON COAST RANGE AS WELL. THE 18Z
NAM...AS WELL AS THE FIRST FEW TIME FRAMES OF THE 00Z RUN...SEEM TO
BE OVERDONE ON THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE
00Z NAM SHOWS RH IN EXCESS OF 90 PCT FROM KAST THROUGH THE COLUMBIA
GORGE. AT 02Z KAST HAD JUST SCATTERED CLOUDS...WHILE K4S2 WAS
GENERALLY CLEAR. LAST VISIBLE IMAGES SHOWED MINIMAL CLOUD COVER FROM
INTERSTATE 5 WEST TO THE COAST. GFS MODEL SOUNDING FOR KPDX SUGGESTS
CIGS AROUND 2500 FT 12Z WED...BUT A FAIRLY SHALLOW LAYER. GFS AND
ECMWF SURFACE PATTERNS SHOW PLENTY OF ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITH THE
MARINE LAYER EXTENDING TO THE CASCADES. CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER THE
CASCADES MAY JUST CONGEAL AND SETTLE INTO A STRATOCUMULUS LAYER. IN
ANY EVENT...SOUNDINGS REALLY DO NOT SUPPORT DRIZZLE SO LIMITED THAT
TO THE COAST AND INTERIOR LOWLANDS THROUGH 12Z WED. MARINE LAYER
LIKELY DEEP ENOUGH WED MORNING FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE
NW PART OF THE CWA.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MIGRATES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WED. MODELS
INDICATE VERY WEAK DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. SURFACE
PATTERN SUGGESTS DEEPEST ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OVER SW WA
AND FAR NWRN OREGON...WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS ARE FORECAST. GFS
SOUNDING FOR KPDX INDICATES CIGS RISING TO AROUND 4500 FT WED
AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN NOT A VERY DEEP SATURATED LAYER.
WEST FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWS ON THU...WITH A NW LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW.
MODELS SEEM TO BE DRYING OUT A LOT OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THURSDAY...SO IN ADDITION TO KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY...HAVE
DECREASED SKY COVER SIGNIFICANTLY. SOME MOISTURE RETURNS
FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BUT THIS SHOULD ONLY
INCREASE SKY COVER AND NOT POPS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
NOSE INTO THE AREA. WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. WEISHAAR
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
PERSIST OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND DRY WEATHER. WHILE A FEW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MAY MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION...ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO THE
NORTH IN NORTHERN WASHINGTON/SOUTHERN CANADA. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE VALLEY...BUT LIKELY
CLOSER TO NORMAL AT THE COAST AS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND. INCREASING CLOUDS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH COOLER MARINE
AIR AND SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE. CULLEN
&&
.AVIATION...A WEAK FRONT MOVING INTO THE CASCADES ALONG WITH
SPOTTY BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS. FLIGHT CONDITIONS HAVE MOSTLY
IMPROVED TO THE VFR BUT THE MOUNTAINS WILL PROBABLY BE OBSCURED
AT TIMES THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. CURRENT DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
MID 40S TO LOW 50S. ONSHORE FLOW IS LIGHT BUT NOT MUCH MARINE
CLOUDS TO ADVECT INLAND. THE CHALLENGING PART OF THE FORECAST IS
HOW MUCH LOWER CLOUD COVER WILL DEVELOP. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO LAY OVER THE AREA WED MORNING. BASED THAT AND ON
MODEL GUIDANCE DISSIPATING THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER THE
AREA. IT APPEARS THAT CIGS AROUND 2000-2500 FT SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER PARTS OF THE INTERIOR BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z WED. COASTAL AREAS
MAY SEE LOWER CIGS. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPROVING TO VFR BY
MIDDAY. THERE WILL BE A WEAK TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME
LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT PCPN NORTH OF KSLE.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH
11Z WED THE AREAS OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AROUND 2500 FEET THROUGH
ABOUT 19Z. VFR TO FOLLOW. /26
&&
.MARINE...WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY LATE TONIGHT BEHIND A DEPARTING
FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRUSH THE WATERS WED AND BRING A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY WINDS...BUT EXPECT THE WINDS TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. HIGH PRES RETURNS ON THU...WITH A SURFACE
THERMAL LOW LIKELY BUILDING OVER THE S OREGON/N CALIFORNIA COAST.
THIS WILL LIKELY BRING ADVISORY GUSTS THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO
APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND COULD BRING ADVISORY WINDS TO THE
WATERS.
SEAS AROUND HAVE NUDGED UP TO AROUND 11 FT AND SHOULD BE HOVERING
AROUND 10 FT THROUGH WED MORNING. SEAS SUBSIDE BACK TO AROUND 7
FT LATE WED AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 FT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
/64
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR FROM 11 PM PDT
WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM PDT THURSDAY.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
847 PM PDT TUE APR 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching cold front will lead to an increase in winds and
much cooler temperatures through Wednesday, along with a chance
for showers and a possible thunderstorm mainly tonight. A few
showers may linger over the mountains on Wednesday. This will be
followed by a general drying trend into the weekend with
temperatures warming near to or slightly above normal.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
No update needed to the forecast this evening as the current
forecast package is right on track with the timing of the frontal
system that will cross the Inland Northwest tonight. radar is
showing the prefrontal precipitation band just west of Moses Lake
area as of 830 pm. The HRRR has a good handle on this and has the
band of showers moving through eastern WA and into north Idaho
over the next 6 hours. Winds will increase and become gusty behind
the front tonight. There is still the possibility of a few rumbles
of thunder across the northeast tonight as the upper level jet
slides over the area but confidence is low for more than a strike
or two. /Kelch
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Dry conditions will make way for a cold front that will
pass through KEAT this evening and across the remainder of the
area tonight. Showers are expected with the front for the eastern
TAF sites. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible...but
confidence is low that any TAF site will see a storm and thus
left mention out of the TAF`s. VFR conditions are likely at all
TAF sites through 00Z Thursday...except for the possibility of
brief MVFR ceilings in heavier shower cores after 06Z tonight at
the eastern TAF sites. Gusty southwest winds will follow the
frontal passage. /EK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 47 61 38 63 42 70 / 60 30 10 0 0 10
Coeur d`Alene 42 59 35 62 38 68 / 50 50 10 0 0 10
Pullman 43 57 35 61 38 69 / 30 50 10 0 0 10
Lewiston 49 65 40 68 43 76 / 20 30 10 0 0 10
Colville 45 64 36 69 40 73 / 60 30 20 10 10 10
Sandpoint 40 60 32 62 35 67 / 50 70 10 10 10 10
Kellogg 41 57 34 60 37 67 / 20 60 10 10 0 10
Moses Lake 41 67 38 71 41 75 / 20 0 10 0 0 10
Wenatchee 43 65 43 71 46 75 / 10 0 10 0 0 10
Omak 42 66 37 70 41 73 / 10 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
127 AM MDT WED APR 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 125 AM MDT WED APR 29 2015
STILL WONDERING IF FOG WILL FORM ON THE PLAINS DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES. HAVE SEEN A GRADUAL
REDUCTION IN TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER
BASIN LARGELY DUE TO FALLING DRYBULB TEMPS UNDER A CLEAR SKY. DO
NOT SEE ANY HINT OF FOG YET ON 3.9U IR SATELLITE IMAGERY OR IN SFC
OBS. HOWEVER THE 00Z NAM AND LATEST HRRR...WRF AND RAP RUNS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE OF FOG FORMING IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAKLY
ORGANIZED DENVER CYCLONE JUST NORTHEAST OF DENVER`S INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WEAK CYCLONIC TURNING IS
EVIDENT IN THIS AREA ACCORDING TO SFC OBS. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE
CURRENT RATE OF COOLING...SUSPECT FOG DEVELOPMENT...ASSUMING IT
HAPPENS...WON/T BEGIN UNTIL AFTER 09Z. AGAIN BASED ON THE ABOVE
MENTIONED MODELS...COULD SEE FOG FORMING ALONG A WIND DEFORMATION
AXIS EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM ABOUT DIA. HRRR...RAP AND WRF
INDICATE THE BEST AREA FOR FOG ACROSS SOUTHERN WELD COUNTY FROM
10Z-13Z THIS MORNING. WHEREAS THE NAM INDICATES THE HIGHEST RH
VALUES CLOSER TO THE DENVER METRO AREA. HOWEVER AS LONG AS DRYING
SWLY WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE...DON/T SEE THIS HAPPENING IN THE
METRO AREA. THAT SAID...WILL FINE TUNE THE AREA OF FOG COVERAGE
TO INCLUDE THE NERN CORNER OF THE DENVER METRO AREA...I.E. DIA...
AND MOVE UP THE TIME OF FOG FORMATION ABOUT AN HOUR. FOR NOW WILL
STICK WITH PATCHY FOG COVERAGE. OTHERWISE REST OF 1ST PERIOD
FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 929 PM MDT TUE APR 28 2015
NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME. CLEARING GOING NICELY. LOOKING PRETTY
MARGINAL FOR FOG BUT STILL A THREAT FOR SOME PATCHES AROUND
SUNRISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT TUE APR 28 2015
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION ARE
SLOWLY ERODING ALONG THE NORTHERN FRONT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL DO THE SAME OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS FLOW TURNS WESTERLY. THE CLEARING SKIES
BUT LEFT OVER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT IN LOW LYING AREAS OF THE PLAINS...AND
PARK COUNTY AS WELL WHERE THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW COVER.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.
ON WEDNESDAY...SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS
COLORADO. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SUNNY SKIES TO
THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY A FEW MID LEVEL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECTED
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT TUE APR 28 2015
AFTER A DRY AND WARM DAY ON THURSDAY...THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD LOOKS LIKE IT IS GOING TO BE A REPETITIOUS PATTERN WITH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THURSDAY WILL
FEATURE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER COLORADO AS A COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACH THE STATE FROM THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
SOMETIME THURSDAY EVENING...SO THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE A WARM ONE
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. MOUNTAIN AREAS MAY SEE A
LITTLE BIT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THROUGH THE
EVENING...AS THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...IT WILL BE POSSIBLE
THAT A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS.
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IT APPEARS THAT GULF
MOISTURE IS GOING TO BE ABLE TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS UNDERNEATH INITIALLY WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND THEN BY NEXT MONDAY THE UPPER PATTERN SHIFTS TO WEAK
UPPER TROUGHING WHICH WILL INCREASE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT MID AND
UPPER LEVELS. AS LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO EASTERN
COLORADO...IT WILL HELP DE-STABILIZE THE AIRMASS EACH AFTERNOON
AND FUEL ISOLATED-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT WILL REMAIN
LIGHT TO MODERATE...SO NO STRONG OR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS
ARE EXPECTED...BUT EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL NEED TO MENTION
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO INTERFERE WITH ANY PLANNED OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 125 AM MDT WED APR 29 2015
HAVE RETURNED VICINITY FOG NOTATION TO KBJC AND KDEN TERMINAL
FORECASTS AFTER REMOVING IT EARLIER THIS EVENING. MESOSCALE MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN AREA OF FOG COVERING MOST OF ADAMS AND
MORGAN COUNTIES...SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF WELD COUNTY...LOW AREAS
ALONG THE S. PLATTE RIVER IN LOGAN COUNTY AND ACROSS NORTHEAST
SECTIONS OF THE DENVER METRO AREA...INCLUDING KDEN. THE FORMATION
OF FOG IN THE DENVER WILL ALL DEPEND ON A SHIFT TO A W-NWLY WIND.
MODELS NEVER INDICATE THIS HAPPENING AT KBJC AND KAPA. FOR THE
TIME BEING...WILL HANG ONTO VICINITY FOG IN THE KBJC AND KDEN TAFS
FROM 09Z-10Z TO 13Z-14Z...RESPECTIVELY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE
VSBY AT KDEN COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO 2-3 MILES....BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS OCCURRING IS LOW.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1116 PM MDT TUE APR 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT TUE APR 28 2015
QUIET WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE WESTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER COLORADO. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TODAY WILL LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE 20S...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. HIGHER AREAS COULD PICK SEE UP TO AN INCH OF
SNOWFALL IN SPOTTY AREAS. OTHERWISE SOUTHEAST PLAINS LOOK VERY
STABLE...AND ALTHOUGH HRRR IS PRINTING OUT SOME LIGHT QPF IN SPOTTY
AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...AM NOT TOO OPTIMISTIC THAT THIS
WILL HAPPEN GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A CAP IN MODEL SOUNDINGS. WILL
CONFINE POPS TO THE CONTDVD REGION FOR NOW. ANY PRECIPITATION
SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. LEE TROF
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SE MTS/I-
25 CORRIDOR.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS EVEN DRIER THAN TODAY...THOUGH SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MTS
IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE
70S FOR THE PLAINS...60S FOR THE VALLEYS...40S AND 50S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. -KT
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT TUE APR 28 2015
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING
INTO THE STATE BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...AS A
SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES TRANSLATES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THIS
EMBEDDED WAVE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING AND
NORTHERN COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE TAIL END OF THE SYSTEM
SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANY CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHWESTERN MTS TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING ALOFT UNDER
THE BUILDING RIDGE. SOME INCREASED MOISTURE WITHIN THE INCREASING
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HELPS TO DEVELOP GENERALLY ISOLATED CONVECTION
OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON THURSDAY...WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW
AND WARM AIR ALOFT HELPING TO BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S AND
80S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THURSDAY...WITH MAINLY 50S AND 60S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LATEST MODELS ARE A TAD FURTHER SOUTH
WITH THE PASSING WAVE THURSDAY NIGHT...OWNING TO A STRONGER COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS AND A FEW POSSIBLE
SHOWERS OR STORMS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. INCREASING MOISTURE AND THE TAIL END OF THE PASSING WAVE TO
HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ON FRIDAY...WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER AND NEAR THE MTS
LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS SPREADING OUT ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND
PLAINS...WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE PLAINS
WITHIN DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. FRIDAYS HIGHS TO BE SOME
5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS.
SATURDAY-TUESDAY...GENERALLY WEAK WESTERLY FLOW PROGGED ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SEVERAL MINOR WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW LEADING TO MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE DESERT SW COULD BRING BETTER
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM MDT TUE APR 28 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT TERRAIN
DRIVEN WINDS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KT/MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...PETERSEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
340 AM EDT WED APR 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT WED APR 29 2015
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF THE NATION. THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS ARE MAKING ONLY SLOW PROGRESS NORTH AND INTO TENNESSEE WHILE
THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 KEEP IT OUT OF KENTUCKY ENTIRELY.
HOWEVER...SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE MANAGED TO PUSH INTO
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE. THESE CLOUDS...AND A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN MOISTURE...ARE HELPING TO KEEP THE TEMPERATURES THERE...EVEN IN
MOST OF THE VALLEYS...MORE UNIFORM FROM 45 TO 50 DEGREES.
MEANWHILE...TO THE NORTH...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE
ALLOWED A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT TO DEVELOP WITH READINGS
VARYING FROM THE LOWER 50S ABOVE THE INVERSION TO THE LOWER 40S IN
THE SHELTERED SPOTS BELOW IT. DEWPOINTS...IN GENERAL...VARY ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE FAR SOUTH TO THE MID 30S IN THE
NORTH. WINDS THROUGHOUT EAST KENTUCKY ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IF
NOT OUTRIGHT CALM.
THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE SETTLING ON A SOLUTION AT MID LEVELS FOR
THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL AGREE WITH A
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OPENING UP AS IT MOVES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
TODAY. IT IS THEN JOINED BY A TRAILING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
DROPPING MAINLY SOUTH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THESE WAVES
WILL MAINTAIN A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE NATION
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE WILL THEN DESCEND
THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...SHARPENING UP AS IT
MOVES INTO KENTUCKY BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. THIS CLOSED...BUT FAIRLY
QUICK MOVING...LOW WILL PUNCH THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH PLENTY OF MID LEVEL ENERGY AND A CORE
OF COLDER 500 MB TEMPS. THE GFS STILL REMAINS THE STRONGEST MODEL
WITH THIS AND ALSO A BIT SLOWER. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE OTHERS
ARE COMING AROUND TO THIS IDEA...THOUGH...WITH THE NAM
REPRESENTING A GOOD COMPROMISE. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE GONE WITH A
MAINLY NAM12 SOLUTION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...ALONG WITH THE
WELL ALIGNED HRRR FOR TODAY/S PORTION.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY AS THE
SYSTEM PASSES HARMLESSLY TO THE SOUTH...ROBBING US OF ANOTHER
CHANCE TO GET SOME RAINFALL THAT WOULD GO TOWARD BREAKING THE
RECORD FOR THE MONTH HERE AT JKL. WITH LESS PCPN AND CLOUDS
ANTICIPATED TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
EXPECTED 24 HOURS AGO. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE BUMPED THEM UP INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 60S MOST PLACES. AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AT MID
LEVELS TONIGHT WILL BRING IN A DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WILL
LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT SERVE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER
UNIFORM. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY DAWN IN THE NORTHWEST PARTS
OF THE AREA AS THE SFC REFLECTION OF THAT MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES
INTO KENTUCKY. LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON
THURSDAY WITH CLIMBING CAPE AND FALLING LIS AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
OVERHEAD. AS A RESULT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THAT
MORNING AND A BETTER BET BY AFTERNOON DUE TO BETTER INSOLATION AND
COLD MID LEVELS. HAVE UPGRADED THE THUNDER CHANCES TO SCATTERED
FROM SLIGHT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND AM ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT
GRAUPEL FROM ANY STRONGER SHOWER OF STORM SO WILL ADD A MENTION TO
THE FORTHCOMING HWO. THE CLOUDS AND CONVECTION WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE THURSDAY DESPITE THE THUNDER CHANCES.
FOR TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS/WINDS HAVE STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST AND THE SUPERBLEND
AFTER THAT. DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURES
BASED ON TERRAIN THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
SIMILAR TO LOWER GUIDANCE TODAY/TONIGHT AND A BIT HIGHER ON
THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT WED APR 29 2015
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT WET AND RAINY AS A WEATHER SYSTEM
PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. RUN OF THE MILL
RAIN SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE AREA AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OHIO VALLEY. COOLER AIR AND LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL
EFFECTIVELY KILL ANY CHANCES FOR THUNDER. THE RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT
IN NATURE AND WILL NOT CAUSE ANY HYDRO ISSUES. AFTER LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY AND WARM AS A LARGE AND RATHER
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
THE LONG TERM MODELS DO TRY TO PRODUCE A BIT OF SPOTTY PRECIPITATION
FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM SATURDAY
ONWARD...BUT CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE IN THE
MODELS...AND NO APPRECIABLE SIGNAL FOR PRECIP IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND TIME HEIGHTS...DECIDED TO KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE PICTURE
UNTIL THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD...WHEN THE GFS MODEL ATTEMPTS TO
SAG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD OUT OF INDIANA...OHIO...AND
ILLINOIS.
TEMPERATURES THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION AND WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTED WEATHER SYSTEM.
FROM SUNDAY ONWARD...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE MARKEDLY WARMER AS THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION...BRINGING LIGHT
WINDS AND AMPLE SUNSHINE TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. HIGHS ON
EACH OF THESE DAYS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH MAX READINGS
ON MONDAY TUESDAY POSSIBLE TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S AROUND THE
AREA. A FEW LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY MAY EVEN TOP 80 DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT WED APR 29 2015
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WILL
BE SEEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...WITH A LOWER DECK OF
CLOUDS LIKELY FORMING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THESE WILL LIKELY HOLD AT AROUND 5K FEET AGL.
SOME SHOWERS MAY THREATEN...THOUGH THEY WILL BE LIKELY OCCUR
SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND FAR FROM ANY TAF SITE. WINDS WILL AVERAGE
AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY OF VARIABLE
DIRECTION WHEN NOT OUT OF THE NORTH.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
244 AM EDT WED APR 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT WED APR 29 2015
DID A QUICK TOUCH UP TO THE GRIDS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT GIVEN
THE HIGH CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH SLOWING THE RADIATIVE COOLING THERE
WHILE THE SHELTERED VALLEYS NORTH OF THE CLOUD LINE HAVE BEEN
ABLE TO DROP OFF TO AROUND 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE RIDGES. BASED
ON THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 HAVE TAKEN POPS DOWN EVEN MORE INTO
THE MORNING KEEPING THE PCPN OF THE SOUTHERN SFC WAVE TO THE SOUTH
OF KENTUCKY. ALSO FINE TUNED LOW TEMPS AND HOURLY T/TD PER THE
LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE...OBS...TRENDS...AND CLOUD COVER.
THESE GRID UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1107 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
ONE BATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS IS GRADUALLY THINNING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY AND EAST TENNESSEE...WITH ANOTHER BATCH MOVING OUT OF
NORTHERN ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI. COOLER VALLEYS HAVE DROPPED OFF
INTO THE MID 40S...SO A FEW UPPER 30S STILL LOOK ON TARGET. DID GO
A BIT MILDER IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...WITH A SLOWER DROP OFF
THUS FAR. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
HIGH CLOUDS ARE TRYING TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA. THE
LATEST SATELLITE AND MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST AREAS ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH MOST
OF THE NIGHT UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
SPINNING ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AREA DRAWS CLOSER BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AS SUCH...WITH FAIRLY CALM WINDS AND DEW POINTS BACK DOWN
IN THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON...THINK A FEW SHELTERED VALLEYS MAY DIP
BELOW THE 40 DEGREE MARK ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. HAVE ALSO REMOVED
POPS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AS THE LATEST MODELS SUGGEST THAT
EVEN THE FAR SOUTHEAST WILL NOT HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR
SHOWERS UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. UPDATES WILL BE
FORTHCOMING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AFTER A CLEAR AND BEAUTIFUL
DAY WHERE TEMPERATURES TOPPED OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...ABOUT 5 TO
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS FORECASTED IN THE LOW
TO MID 40S. TOMORROW...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH
KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP OUT OF KY. WITH THIS
SYSTEM...MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER SO HAVE SUBSTANTIALLY BUMPED
POPS DOWN THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY ONLY ALLOWING CHANCE POPS IN OUR
EXTREME SOUTH AND EASTERN COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
60S....WITH CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FORM PARTS OF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND THEN NORTH
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE
WORKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPPING
SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BE DEPARTING THE SOUTHEAST US COAST WITH
ANOTHER BROAD REGION OF LOWER PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
FROM WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO
DROP SOUTH INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION AND THEN REACH THE PIEDMONT
REGION ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY DAWN ON FRIDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE RATHER QUICKLY FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST EAST NEAR THE US/CANADIAN BORDER AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE BETWEEN THE
SYSTEMS. FRI INTO SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEPART TO THE
EAST...WHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA...BUT DAMPENS.
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE FLOW WILL TAKE
ON A BIT MORE ZONAL FLAVOR.
BETWEEN THE TROUGH DEPARTING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST EARLY IN THE
PERIOD AND THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW...MUCH OF THE EARLY PART
OF THE PERIOD ON WED NIGHT MAY BE RATHER UNEVENTFUL WITH MID AND
HIGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL BRING MOISTURE AND INCREASING INSTABILITY INTO THE REGION FOR
THU...ESPECIALLY WHEN COMBINED WITH SOME SOLAR INSOLATION DURING THE
DAY. THE MODELS PROJECT CAPE NEARING 500 J/KG OR SO ACROSS THE
WESTERN PART OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY ON THU...WHILE EASTERN LOCATIONS
CAPE MAY NEAR 1000 J/KG. LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALSO GET RATHER STEEP
WHILE FREEZING LEVELS AND WBZ WILL BE RATHER LOW... ON THE ORDER OF
5 TO 6KFT. SOME GRAUPEL OR HAIL MIGHT BE POSSIBLE FROM ANY STRONGER
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. WE HAVE CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDER...ALTHOUGH MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE OF THUNDER MAY NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED FOR THE SOUTH AND EAST. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER
INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY UNTIL THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS FURTHER
EAST...ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING.
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE HIGHER WITH HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS TRACKING A
SHORTWAVE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS
KEEPS EASTERN KY GENERALLY DRY DURING THE WEEKEND AS COMPARED TO THE
WETTER GFS. FOR THE WEEKEND...WE HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN MORE TOWARD
PERSISTENCE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND RECENT ECMWF RUNS FOR
POPS. ALSO DURING THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL TRACK TOWARD THE HUDSON AND JAMES BAY
REGION EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK AND SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND
APPROACHING THE OH VALLEY AROUND THE END OF THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH
SOME ISOLATED POPS WERE CARRIED IN THE NORTH EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION APPEAR HIGHER TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD...ULTIMATELY WHEN THE BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT WED APR 29 2015
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WILL
BE SEEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...WITH A LOWER DECK OF
CLOUDS LIKELY FORMING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THESE WILL LIKELY HOLD AT AROUND 5K FEET AGL.
SOME SHOWERS MAY THREATEN...THOUGH THEY WILL BE LIKELY OCCUR
SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND FAR FROM ANY TAF SITE. WINDS WILL AVERAGE
AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY OF VARIABLE
DIRECTION WHEN NOT OUT OF THE NORTH.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
130 AM EDT WED APR 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SPLITTING WITH ONE SHORTWAVE DIVING SE THROUGH CENTRAL MN AND
ANOTHER MORE SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST THROUGH NRN MN AS IT
APPROACHES LAKE SUPERIOR. THE ENERGY SPLIT RESULTS IN WEAKENING
DYNAMICS OUT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS DEPICTED BY WEAKENING MID-
LVL Q-VECT CONVERGENCE. AND THIS PARTLY EXPLAINS WHY LINE OF SHRA
APPROACHING FM THE WEST IS ALSO WEAKENING AND BREAKING APART AS
NOTED ON REGIONAL RADAR LOOP.
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM MN IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. MODEL Q-VECT CONV INDICATES BEST Q-VECT CONV
SPLITTING NORTH AND SOUTH OF CWA SO WOULD EXPECT WEAKENING TREND TO
CONTINUE WITH APPROACHING LINE OF SHRA THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE DRY
FCST TO CONTINUE ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING NW ONTARIO WL THEN BEGIN DIGGING MORE
SHARPLY TO THE S TONIGHT WITH MODELS SUGGESTING A MID LEVEL LOW
BEGINNING TO CLOSE OFF JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT AN EXPANSION OF PCPN N AND E OF LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT...CLOSER TO GREATEST HEIGHT FALLS. PCPN MAY TRY TO DEVELOP S
INTO ERN UPPER MI...BUT LACK OF DEEP FORCING SUGGESTS MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE THRU THE NIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
30S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
WEDNESDAY...CLOSED LOW AND ASSOC MID-LVL TROF CONTINUES TO DESCEND
SOUTH OVER ERN UPPER MI. 12Z NAM SOUNDING FOR KERY SHOWS SHALLOW LOW-
LVL MOISTURE EXTENDING TO 7-8 KFT BUT REMAINING BELOW -10C ISOTHERM.
WOULD EXPECT ONLY SPRINKLES AT BEST FOR ERN COUNTIES (POSSIBLY AIDED
BY UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW) AS BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING/Q-VECT CONV AND
DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS EAST OF FCST AREA. N WINDS OF 10-15MPH
GUSTING TO 20MPH WILL KEEP LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE LOCATIONS COOL
WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE 40S. FARTHER INLAND HIGHS COULD
REACH INTO THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
OVERALL...LITTLE CHANGES IN THE FORECAST THOUGHTS OVER THE LAST
24HRS...WITH THE REGION SEEING LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH SUNDAY AND A TRANSITION TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THIS
TRANSITION WILL BE LED BY AN UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER WESTERN CANADA. THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA UNDER
ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES AND
SURFACE TROUGHS LEADING TO LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
BEFORE THAT UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT...THE
START OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL SEE A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE 700-500MB LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN AND SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TO THE EAST OF A LINE FROM MUNISING TO MANISTIQUE. IT DID APPEAR
THAT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH NORTHERLY FLOW UPSLOPE HELP TO PRODUCE A
FEW SHOWERS/DRIZZLE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL (NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE
CRYSTALS AND SNOW)...SO DID ADD A MENTION OF RAIN TO THAT AREA FOR
WED NIGHT INTO THURS MORNING. THE DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY MOVE
SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...ALLOWING THE UPPER
RIDGE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN CANADA. THAT WILL LEAD TO DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO THE AREA AND IN TURN DECREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO
EAST ON THURSDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO STILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH WITH THE COOL AIR COMING OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR.
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A NICE START TO THE DAY IN THE U.P. WITH SUNNY
CONDITIONS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S. THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE (SLIDING EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED IN WESTERN
CANADA WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN IN THE AFTERNOON AND
THEN THE REST OF THE CWA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. LIKE THE SHORTWAVE AND FRONT
THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...IT
WILL BE RUNNING INTO EXISTING DRY AIR AND ALSO BECOMING SHEARED OUT.
THUS...EXPECT THE SYSTEM/PRECIPITATION TO DIMINISH AS IT SHIFTS INTO
THE WESTERN U.P. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN DIMINISHING AS IT SHIFTS EAST OVER
THE REST OF THE CWA IN THE EVENING.
BEHIND THAT DISTURBANCE...ZONAL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHERN CONSUS AND EXPECT THAT TO LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT (OVER
THE LAST 6-8 RUNS) WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ON
SATURDAY AT KSAW/KIWD/KIMT AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER FOR SUNDAY.
THUS...WILL TREND THEIR FORECASTS UP TOWARDS THAT IDEA FOR BOTH OF
THOSE DAYS. WITH WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT...SHOULD SEE LAKE BREEZES
DEVELOP ON SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON A DISTURBANCE
FORECAST TO TRACK EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON SATURDAY. AT
THIS POINT...IT LOOKS TO STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT THERE
HAVE BEEN SOME INDICATIONS THAT IT MAY SLIDE NORTH AND AFFECT THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE TO THE EAST
WILL LEAD TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY.
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL COME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SHIFTS EAST
AND INTERACTS WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. WILL FOCUS ON THIS TIME FOR THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES AND TREND POPS UP BEFORE DIMINISHING THEM ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE WAVES DEPART. STILL COULD SEE SOME SHOWER LINGERING
INTO MONDAY NIGHT OR EVEN TUESDAY MORNING DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS DEPARTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT WED APR 29 2015
DRY AIR WILL PERSIST IN THE LOWER LEVELS MAINTAINING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTH WINDS WILL
LIKELY GUST OVER 15 KT AT KCMX AND KSAW ON WED AHEAD OF HIGH PRES
BUILDING DOWN FROM HUDSON BAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...UNDER 15KT...AS A VERY WEAK LOW PRES TROF
PASSES THE AREA THIS EVENING. IN ITS WAKE... ANOTHER HIGH PRES WILL
BUILD OVER HUDSON BAY AND EXTEND A RIDGE S INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES
WED/THU. AS THE HIGH BEGINS RIDGING S INTO THE UPPER LAKES LATE
TONIGHT/WED...NNW WINDS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY GUST TO
AROUND 20KT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER THE W. WITH WEAK PRES
GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER LAKES THU THRU SAT...WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT...MOSTLY UNDER 15KT. A LOW PRES TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN BUT IT LOOKS WEAK AS WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BLO
20 KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1223 AM CDT WED APR 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
AT 330 PM...A VARIETY OF WEATHER WAS OCCURRING ACROSS THE CWA.
SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT
THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER TODAY. THE 4KM NMM WRF...AS WELL AS
THE 18Z NAM AND THE HRRR ALL INDICATED THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE LINGERING
BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THE VORT MAX
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST AS THE EVENING WEARS ON...BRINGING AN END TO THE THREAT
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. TEMPS OVERNIGHT
WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE 30S WITH A FEW 20S POSSIBLE IN LOW
LYING LOCATIONS. OVERALL...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT.
ON WEDNESDAY...A CLOSED LOW WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE LAKE
SUPERIOR REGION BY EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE A BACK DOOR SURFACE
COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTHEAST. HIGHS WILL
ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE 60S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
MILD TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE. THERE WILL BE A WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR
RAIN ON FRIDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS SHIFTS
TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW LEADING TO WEAK FAST-MOVING IMPULSES MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION.
THURSDAY...DRY AND MILD UNDER A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. LIGHT WINDS
WILL PREVENT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM DEVELOPING...BUT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY FALL TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON. MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS MID 60S TO NEAR 70S INLAND...WITH A
LAKE BREEZE LIMITING TEMPS TO THE 50S BY LAKE SUPERIOR...PERHAPS AS
COLD AS THE MID 40S ALONG THE NORTH SHORE FROM SILVER BAY NORTH.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN
FRIDAY...MOVING ACROSS FROM WEST TO EAST SIMILAR TO TODAY /TUES/
BUT WITH MORE INTENSE RAINFALL. TOTAL PRECIP WILL AMOUNT TO AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH. ECMWF/GEM A BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS...BUT IN
GENERALLY THINK THE RAIN WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA IN THE
MORNING INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN IN THE AFTERNOON. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT NEAR FREEZING WHERE SKIES REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT IN THE
ARROWHEAD REGION...ELSEWHERE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S. HIGHS
COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 50S BY THE LAKE TO MID
60S ELSEWHERE.
SAT/SUN/MON/TUES...BEHIND THIS FRONT ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS AT MID/UPPER LEVELS RESULTING A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR PRECIP MOST DAYS...BUT NO DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE A TOTAL
WASHOUT. AT THIS POINT SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL...BUT WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN IT IS
DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN TIMING OF ANY INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM. TEMPS WARM
DUE TO SOME LOW LEVEL RIDGING THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...IN THE 60S BY LAKE
SUPERIOR. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS...IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT WED APR 29 2015
THE VFR CONDITIONS OVER NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 35 55 36 60 / 0 0 20 30
INL 35 68 41 65 / 0 0 40 30
BRD 39 68 44 68 / 0 0 30 30
HYR 34 61 35 66 / 0 0 0 30
ASX 33 55 31 65 / 0 0 0 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
146 AM EDT WED APR 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE COOL AND RAINY THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
SLOWLY UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1035 PM TUESDAY...HAVE MADE INCREASES IN CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT MORE PROGRESSIVE BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES OF NOTE WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON.
ALL EYES ARE FOCUSED ON AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ARKLATEX
REGION MOVING EASTWARD. AHEAD OF THIS LOW BACKING MID-LEVEL FLOW
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE GULF WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME CHANCE OF RAIN DEVELOPING BY 8 AM
AS FAR NORTH AS FLORENCE & MYRTLE BEACH.
COMPARED TO 00Z THE 12Z MODELS HAVE BECOME (AS A WHOLE) MUCH
DRIER IN THE 06-12Z WINDOW TONIGHT. THE CULPRIT APPEARS TO BE THIS
MORNING`S MCS THAT RAN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. DRYING AND
STABILIZATION BEHIND THIS FEATURE HAS LED TO A REDUCTION IN THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS.
THE 12Z NAM AND RUC ARE THE PREFERRED MODELS...WITH THE 12Z GFS
LIKELY STILL TOO RAPID WITH MOISTURE RETURN. GIVEN THE LESSER
AMOUNT OF CIRRUS STREAMING NORTHWARD THIS EVENING WE SHOULD HAVE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...PERHAPS EVEN A FEW
HOURS LONGER ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA.
I HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT 3-5 DEGREES
LOWER...BUT AM STILL 1-2 DEGREES ABOVE THE CHILLY 12Z GFS AND NAM
MOS NUMBERS. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...VERY BUSY UPPER PATTERN IN THE EASTERN
U.S. MAKING FOR SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES. A HUGE BARELY MOVING
UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND STATES ON
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE ANOTHER NORTHERN BRANCH FEATURE WILL BE
DIVING NEARLY DUE SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. A SOUTHERN BRANCH
FEATURE PREVIOUSLY CUTOFF OVER THE PLAINS FOR SOME TIME WILL BE
OPENING UP AND PROGRESSING EAST. THE LATTER TWO FEATURES WILL HAVE
SOME INTERACTION IN PART MODIFIED BY THE UNWILLINGNESS OF THE
FORMER TO PROGRESS EAST. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH FEATURE WILL HAVE A
SLOW MOVING SURFACE REFLECTION THAT CROSSES FLORIDA. THE CONFUSING
ASPECT REGARDING THIS SYSTEM IS THAT IT WILL PICK UP AMPLE GULF
MOISTURE BUT MAY HAVE TROUBLE BRINGING IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND
WEST TO BRING THE APPRECIABLE RAINFALL THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED. SO WHILE RAINFALL CHANCES WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH THE
QPF HAS BEEN REDUCED. WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE PROBLEM IS A WEAKENED
LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PAIRED WITH THE FACT THAT THE MID
LEVEL WAVE NOW WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY TO PREVENT DEEPER COUPLED
ASCENT. THE UPPER WAVE WEAKENS SO RAPIDLY AS IT GETS SHEARED OUT
BETWEEN THE UPSTREAM DIVING VORT AND THE STALWART NEW ENGLAND LOW.
THIS LEADS TO MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY`S FORECAST
AND THE SPEED AT WHICH PRECIPITATION CHANCES WANE LOCALLY. THE
SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL ATTEMPT TO CAPTURE THE SURFACE WAVE OFF OF
CAPE HATTERAS BUT MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE TROUGH AS A WHOLE
REMAINS TOO CONFLUENT/POSITIVELY TILTED TO SUCCEED. ALSO THERE
WILL BE A DRY MOVING UP THE COAST ON THURSDAY AND THE LANDMASS IS
MORE LIKELY TO FIND ITSELF IN THE WRAP-AROUND REGION. HEADING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT IT IS TOUGH TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHERN ZONES GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SHEARED VORTICITY
AND THE COLD AIR ALOFT BEARING DOWN UPON THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
AND WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHERN EDGE OF 5H LOW PASSES OVER THE
AREA DURING FRI BUT PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN RATHER LOW. INSTABILITY
UNDER THE LOW SHOULD BE ENHANCED BUT THERE IS A DISTINCT LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE. SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE DOES ARRIVE LATER IN THE
DAY BUT AT THAT POINT THE LOW IS SHIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
WITH SUBSIDENCE OVERHEAD. THE 5H LOW CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN UNDER
WEAKLY AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT. CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK...MIGRATING TO NEAR BERMUDA BY MIDWEEK.
ALOFT THE WEAKLY AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN...RESULTING IN
NORTHWEST FLOW DURING THE WEEKEND...WILL TRANSITION TO WEAK
RIDGING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO TO START THE PERIOD WILL CLIMB ABOVE CLIMO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF
THE BERMUDA HIGH.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH 12Z BUT REMAIN VFR. ALTHOUGH SOME
RAIN COULD DEVELOP EARLIER...GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE
KMYR/KFLO/KCRE TERMINALS AROUND 11-12Z WITH MID LEVEL CIGS
DEVELOPING. THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINING
TERMINALS DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY BY
AFTERNOON. WORSE FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS
AND BEST AT KLBT. VFR MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON AT BOTH
KLBT/KILM. DURING THE AFTERNOON MVFR WILL DEVELOP AT KFLO AND IFR AT
KCRE/KMYR WITH BEST CONFIDENCE KMYR. LIGHT WINDS DURING THE MORNING
WILL BECOME E...THEN GRADUALLY BACK TO NE 5-10KT EXCEPT 10-15KT AT
KMYR AS A SURFACE LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST. LITTLE CHANGE IN
CLOUDS DURING THE EVENING AS RAIN DECREASES.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A CONTINUING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. VFR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1035 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES FROM EARLIER UPDATE. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER SITTING DIRECTLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LEADING
TO LIGHT WINDS WITH SEAS OF 2 FT OR LESS. THESE BENIGN CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE CAROLINAS HAS HELPED DIMINISH
THE STRONGER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHERLY SURGE EARLY THIS
MORNING. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE AWAY FROM SHORE...WHILE
NEARSHORE A SEABREEZE CIRCULATION HAS ALLOWED ONSHORE WINDS TO
DEVELOP MAINLY SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR. THE HIGH SHOULD SLIDE EAST AND
OFF THE COAST TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING GENERALLY
EASTERLY...STRONGEST ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS WHERE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE STRONGER DUE TO GREATER DISTANCE FROM
THE HIGH.
SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 2 FEET WITHIN 20 MILES OF THE COAST.
THESE SHOULD FALL TO 1-2 FEET OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY DUE TO THE 4-5
SECOND WIND WAVE DYING AWAY WITH THE 8-9 SECOND SOUTHEAST SWELL
CONTINUING.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A LIGHT
ONSHORE/EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES UP ITS INFLUENCE OVER
THE REGION WHILE AT THE SAME TIME AN AMORPHOUS LOW WILL BE
CONGEALING OVER THE NORTHEAST GOMEX AND FLORIDA PENINSULA.
DEPENDING ON THE SHAPE, SPEED, AND TRACK OF THIS LOW THE LOCAL
WINDS MAY VEER SLIGHTLY AND INCREASE A FEW KNOTS. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AND SOME MODELS SHOW LIGHTER WINDS BUT HAVE
DECIDED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE VERY
SLOWLY AND SO STILL BE THE DOMINANT PLAYER ON THURSDAY. THE
PROXIMITY OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALWAYS LEADS TO A CONSIDERABLE CHANGE
IN WIND DIRECTION AS THE DAY WEARS ON AND THIS APPEARS TO BE THE
CASE ON THURSDAY WITH AN EVENTUAL TURN TO OFFSHORE. FORTUNATELY
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WIND AND SEAS NEVER BUILD ABOVE ANY
THRESHOLDS THOUGH THE VARIABLE DIRECTIONS WILL KEEP DOMINANT
PERIODS RATHER SHORT AND CONDITIONS CHOPPY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...MODEST OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON SAT AND BEGIN BACKING TO THE
SOUTHWEST SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
WEAKENING GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO SPEEDS DROPPING FROM A SOLID 20 KT
FRI TO 10 KT OR LESS LATER SAT. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS MAY
BRIEFLY REACH 5 FT WELL AWAY FROM SHORE LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT BUT
GENERALLY 3 TO 4 FT CAN BE EXPECTED INTO SAT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE AS
WIND SPEEDS DECREASE...DROPPING TO 2 TO 3 FT LATE SAT AND SUN.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...RJD/MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
340 AM CDT WED APR 29 2015
.DISCUSSION...
REFLECTIVITY IMAGES CLEARLY SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CURRENTLY
OVER NW AL. THE MOISTURE IS ON THE SE SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WHICH EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOWS CENTER. AT THE SFC...INVERTED
TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE NRN GULF NNE ACROSS NWRN GA. LOW LEVEL
FORCING IS IN PLACE ALONG THE AXIS. HOWEVER...THE NRN EXTENT OF
THE MOISTURE IS ONLY AS FAR NORTH AS OUR FAR SRN COUNTIES.
LATEST HRRR DATA KEEPS THE MOISTURE ACROSS OUR FAR
SOUTH...EVENTUALLY SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLATEAU. IN KEEPING WITH THAT TREND...WILL CARRY LOW SHOWER CHANCES
FOR THE SOUTH AND EAST ONLY.
TONIGHT...THE SFC TROUGH PUSHES EAST OF OUR AREA. PARTIAL CLOUDINESS
TO REMAIN ALONG WITH COOL TEMPS AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.
ON THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS
EASTERN KY. SOME BACKSIDE MOISTURE DOES APPEAR TO EXIST AND WILL
THEREFORE CARRY A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN. ON THIS DAY...I
WILL UNDERCUT THE MAV GUIDANCE RATHER CONSIDERABLY AS CLOUDS...LOW
850 MB TEMPS...AND A FAIRLY STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALL PREVAIL.
IN THE EXT FCST...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST RATHER QUICKLY. THIS WILL LEAVE A PATTERN
WHEREBY RISING HEIGHTS WILL BE THE RULE. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...SOME
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL GAIN A STRONGHOLD ON THE WEATHER
SCENARIO. THIS WILL EQUATE TO HIGH TEMPS PUSHING INTO THE 80S WITH
LOW TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. SO...WARM AND DRY DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED.
STILL NO ORGANIZED COLD FRONT TO SPEAK OF. UPCOMING PATTERN APPEARS
TO BE PUTTING THE CLAMPS ON ANY UPCOMING SEVERE WX POTENTIAL.
MEANWHILE...MAY IS JUST A FEW DAYS AWAY.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 71 48 67 43 / 10 10 20 10
CLARKSVILLE 70 47 66 44 / 10 10 20 05
CROSSVILLE 66 45 64 39 / 30 20 30 10
COLUMBIA 70 48 68 44 / 10 10 20 10
LAWRENCEBURG 69 47 68 45 / 20 10 20 10
WAVERLY 70 47 67 43 / 10 10 20 05
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
253 AM PDT WED APR 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be breezy and cooler with afternoon temperatures in the
60s over much of the Inland Northwest. Showers today will be
spotty, and there won`t be much chance of any additional
precipitation until Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Look for
temperatures at or above average through early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday night...A south-north oriented narrow band
of rain showers associated with a cold front over extreme Eastern
Washington will track into North Idaho between 4 am and 8 am this
morning. A pocket of mid level instability along the front will
lead to locally moderate rain showers. Much drier air is moving in
behind the front both aloft and at the surface which will limit
post frontal shower activity today. Most of the showers this
afternoon will be over the northern mountains around Colville,
Northport, and Metaline Falls. GFS model even shows CAPE values of
200-400 J/KG in this area which could result in an isolated
thunderstorm. Convection will die down this evening with the loss
of daytime heating.
Cold advection across the area behind the front will lead to much
cooler temperatures compared to yesterday...with highs closer to
seasonal normals. Locally breezy winds are expected today through
the Cascade gaps...as well as the Upper Columbia Basin, Spokane
area, and Palouse with gusts around 30 mph expected. Drier air
mixing down over Central Washington with dew points falling into
the lower to mid 20s will lead to low relative humidities values
in the teens as well.
For overnight tonight into Thursday night a series of system pass
north of the Canadian border with a dry zonal (westerly) flow over
the area. Pressure gradient relax a bit on Thursday with sustained
winds over most of the area ranging from 5-15 mph. JW
Friday through Monday: A rather benign weather pattern is progged
by the medium range models Friday through Monday. Not only is weak
west to east (zonal) pattern forecast over the Pacific Northwest,
but it looks to be the predominant flow regime for the remainder of
the lower 48 states. We raised temperatures a bit for Friday ahead
of a weak cold front. Little more than an increase in westerly
winds is expected with the passage of the dry cold front Friday
evening. With the upper level jet axis well north of the Canadian
border, the models are forecasting very little moisture along and
behind Friday evening`s front. The weekend looks pretty favorable
for outdoor activities with an abundance of sunshine and afternoon
temperatures about five degrees above average.
Tuesday and Wednesday: There is reasonably good agreement between
the GFS, ECMWF, Canadian and the GFS Ensemble Mean that a slow
moving upper low will approach the Washington/British Columbia
coast Tuesday into Wednesday. This pattern should increase our
chance for showers and possibly some afternoon thunderstorms
Tuesday and Wednesday. The increasing on-shore flow will also have
the potential to produce locally breezy winds through the Cascade
Gaps in places like Wenatchee, Chelan, and Vantage. /GKoch
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A cold front will pass through KMWH this evening and
east across the remainder of the area tonight. Showers are
expected with the front for the eastern TAF sites. VFR conditions
are likely at all TAF sites through 06Z Thursday...except for the
possibility of brief MVFR ceilings in heavier shower cores after
06Z tonight at the eastern TAF sites. Gusty southwest winds will
follow the frontal passage. Expect winds to diminish after sunset
Wednesday. /EK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 62 38 63 43 72 43 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 60 36 62 38 71 40 / 40 10 0 0 0 0
Pullman 59 34 62 38 71 41 / 40 0 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 66 40 70 42 78 44 / 30 0 0 0 0 0
Colville 66 37 68 43 74 39 / 20 20 0 10 10 0
Sandpoint 60 33 61 35 68 37 / 50 10 0 10 10 0
Kellogg 57 36 60 38 67 40 / 50 10 0 0 10 0
Moses Lake 69 39 71 42 76 42 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 68 46 72 47 75 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 67 36 70 42 74 42 / 0 0 0 0 10 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
253 AM PDT WED APR 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be breezy and cooler with afternoon temperatures in the
60s over much of the Inland Northwest. Showers today will be
spotty, and there won`t be much chance of any additional
precipitation until Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Look for
temperatures at or above average through early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday night...A south-north oriented narrow band
of rain showers associated with a cold front over extreme Eastern
Washington will track into North Idaho between 4 am and 8 am this
morning. A pocket of mid level instability along the front will
lead to locally moderate rain showers. Much drier air is moving in
behind the front both aloft and at the surface which will limit
post frontal shower activity today. Most of the showers this
afternoon will be over the northern mountains around Colville,
Northport, and Metaline Falls. GFS model even shows CAPE values of
200-400 J/KG in this area which could result in an isolated
thunderstorm. Convection will die down this evening with the loss
of daytime heating.
Cold advection across the area behind the front will lead to much
cooler temperatures compared to yesterday...with highs closer to
seasonal normals. Locally breezy winds are expected today through
the Cascade gaps...as well as the Upper Columbia Basin, Spokane
area, and Palouse with gusts around 30 mph expected. Drier air
mixing down over Central Washington with dew points falling into
the lower to mid 20s will lead to low relative humidities values
in the teens as well.
For overnight tonight into Thursday night a series of system pass
north of the Canadian border with a dry zonal (westerly) flow over
the area. Pressure gradient relax a bit on Thursday with sustained
winds over most of the area ranging from 5-15 mph. JW
Friday through Monday: A rather benign weather pattern is progged
by the medium range models Friday through Monday. Not only is weak
west to east (zonal) pattern forecast over the Pacific Northwest,
but it looks to be the predominant flow regime for the remainder of
the lower 48 states. We raised temperatures a bit for Friday ahead
of a weak cold front. Little more than an increase in westerly
winds is expected with the passage of the dry cold front Friday
evening. With the upper level jet axis well north of the Canadian
border, the models are forecasting very little moisture along and
behind Friday evening`s front. The weekend looks pretty favorable
for outdoor activities with an abundance of sunshine and afternoon
temperatures about five degrees above average.
Tuesday and Wednesday: There is reasonably good agreement between
the GFS, ECMWF, Canadian and the GFS Ensemble Mean that a slow
moving upper low will approach the Washington/British Columbia
coast Tuesday into Wednesday. This pattern should increase our
chance for showers and possibly some afternoon thunderstorms
Tuesday and Wednesday. The increasing on-shore flow will also have
the potential to produce locally breezy winds through the Cascade
Gaps in places like Wenatchee, Chelan, and Vantage. /GKoch
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A cold front will pass through KMWH this evening and
east across the remainder of the area tonight. Showers are
expected with the front for the eastern TAF sites. VFR conditions
are likely at all TAF sites through 06Z Thursday...except for the
possibility of brief MVFR ceilings in heavier shower cores after
06Z tonight at the eastern TAF sites. Gusty southwest winds will
follow the frontal passage. Expect winds to diminish after sunset
Wednesday. /EK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 62 38 63 43 72 43 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 60 36 62 38 71 40 / 40 10 0 0 0 0
Pullman 59 34 62 38 71 41 / 40 0 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 66 40 70 42 78 44 / 30 0 0 0 0 0
Colville 66 37 68 43 74 39 / 20 20 0 10 10 0
Sandpoint 60 33 61 35 68 37 / 50 10 0 10 10 0
Kellogg 57 36 60 38 67 40 / 50 10 0 0 10 0
Moses Lake 69 39 71 42 76 42 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 68 46 72 47 75 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 67 36 70 42 74 42 / 0 0 0 0 10 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1021 PM PDT TUE APR 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching cold front will lead to an increase in winds and
much cooler temperatures through Wednesday, along with a chance
for showers and a possible thunderstorm mainly tonight. A few
showers may linger over the mountains on Wednesday. This will be
followed by a general drying trend into the weekend with
temperatures warming near to or slightly above normal.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
No update needed to the forecast this evening as the current
forecast package is right on track with the timing of the frontal
system that will cross the Inland Northwest tonight. radar is
showing the prefrontal precipitation band just west of Moses Lake
area as of 830 pm. The HRRR has a good handle on this and has the
band of showers moving through eastern WA and into north Idaho
over the next 6 hours. Winds will increase and become gusty behind
the front tonight. There is still the possibility of a few rumbles
of thunder across the northeast tonight as the upper level jet
slides over the area but confidence is low for more than a strike
or two. /Kelch
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A cold front will pass through KMWH this evening and
east across the remainder of the area tonight. Showers are
expected with the front for the eastern TAF sites. VFR conditions
are likely at all TAF sites through 06Z Thursday...except for the
possibility of brief MVFR ceilings in heavier shower cores after
06Z tonight at the eastern TAF sites. Gusty southwest winds will
follow the frontal passage. Expect winds to diminish after sunset
Wednesday. /EK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 47 61 38 63 42 70 / 60 30 10 0 0 10
Coeur d`Alene 42 59 35 62 38 68 / 50 50 10 0 0 10
Pullman 43 57 35 61 38 69 / 30 50 10 0 0 10
Lewiston 49 65 40 68 43 76 / 20 30 10 0 0 10
Colville 45 64 36 69 40 73 / 60 30 20 10 10 10
Sandpoint 40 60 32 62 35 67 / 50 70 10 10 10 10
Kellogg 41 57 34 60 37 67 / 20 60 10 10 0 10
Moses Lake 41 67 38 71 41 75 / 20 0 10 0 0 10
Wenatchee 43 65 43 71 46 75 / 10 0 10 0 0 10
Omak 42 66 37 70 41 73 / 10 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
925 AM EDT WED APR 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT RESIDES OVER THE REGION TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO A
POSITION OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST ON THURSDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE
TO TREK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER WONDERFUL SPRING DAY IN THE PHILLY AREA UNDER A WEAK
RIDGE ALOFT BETWEEN SLOWLY EASTWARD AND SEAWARD DEPARTING WESTERN
ATLANTIC CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND SOUTHWARD GROWING GREAT LAKES
UPPER LOW. AT THE SFC, WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER NNJ THIS
AFTERNOON.
A SUNNY START THEN SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON
PROBABLY AOA 6000 FT.
NW WIND GUSTY AROUND 15-20 MPH DURING MID LATE MORNING THEN
SETTLES DOWN A BIT MID AFTERNOON. COASTAL COOLING SEA BREEZES
EXPECTED BUT POSSIBLY NOT WIDESPREAD (00Z/30 ECMWF MUCH MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN THE 00Z/06Z NCEP MODELS). FOLLOWED 09Z HRRR ON
GUSTS THIS MORNING.
THERE IS A MODELED SFC LOW OVER NNJ THAT MAY ASSIST SEA BREEZES
NNJ.
MAX TEMPS ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WERE
INCREASED SLIGHTLY WITH THE 9:30 AM UPDATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AS A SHARP RISE WITH TEMPERATURES OCCURRED THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. A COMBINATION OF LEFTOVER STRATOCU THIS
EVENING AND CIRRUS FROM THE SOMEWHAT DEVELOPING SE COAST LOW. THE
CIRRUS MOSTLY THIN, OVERSPREADS LATER AT NIGHT FROM SSW TO NNE.
INVERSION AT 7000 FT MAY TRAP CLOUDS AT THAT LEVEL MOST OF THE
NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CIG TONIGHT.
LOWS 3 OR MORE DEGREES MILDER THAN THE VALUES OF THIS WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IF CLOUDS 7000 FT.
LIGHT W-SW WIND PROBABLY TURNS LIGHT NE MOST AREAS BY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THU STARTS OUT DRY, WITH LOW PRES OFF THE SERN CONUS CST. THIS
LOW WILL MOVE NEWD THRU FRI, AS THE UPR LOW, NR THE OH VLY SWINGS
SEWD. PRECIP WILL DEVELOP NW OF THE SFC LOW AND PRBLY WITH THE UPR
LOW BUT EXACTLY WHERE REMAINS THE BIG QUESTION. IT STILL APPEARS
THE BEST CHCS OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER SRN AND ERN AREA, BUT THIS
WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW. ITS PSBL MOST LOCATIONS MAY
REMAIN DRY THRU THE DAY ON FRI, ESPECIALLY UP NORTH.
THE AXIS OF THE UPR TROF PASSES OFF THE CST FRI EVE AND THIS SHUD
FURTHER STEER THE LOW OUT TO SEA. HIGH PRES WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN
FROM THE W. BOTH MDLS IMPLY SOME LIGHT PRECIP IN NW FLOW ON SAT.
ITS PSBL, BUT IT WOULD BE LOW POPS.
BEYOND SAT, THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR MON AND MOVES OFF
THE CST MON NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND CMC HAVE DRY WX DURG THIS TIME
WITH WARM TEMPS AS SWLY FLOW INCREASES. THE GFS, ON THE OTHER HAND
SEEMS TO BE INEXPLICABLY WET AS WE GO MON SUN INTO MON, ESPECIALLY
UNDER HIGH PRES. THEREFORE, AM IGNORING ITS SOLN FOR NOW.
BY MON NIGHT INTO TUE, LOW PRES IN CANADA WILL BRING A CDFNT ACRS
THE NRN REACHES OF THE AREA. SOME PRECIP IS PSBL AND HAVE JUST
GONE WITH SOME LOW POPS. ONCE AGAIN, WHILE THE GFS HAS THE FRONT,
SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF, IT HAS QUITE A BIT MORE PRECIP AND WILL KEEP
THE DRIER TREND.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRI, WHERE THE REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY
THE UPR LOW AND PSBLY THE SFC OFF THE CST, TEMPS WILL BE AOA NRML
THRU THE EXTENDD PD.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...VFR CLEAR TO START THEN SCT SC DURING THE AFTN AOA 6000
FT. NW WIND GUST 14KT-20KT 13Z-16Z THEN WIND DIMINISHING DURING
THE AFTERNOON. COASTAL SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS MODEL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE INLAND PENETRATION OF THE
SEA BREEZE AND AM LESS CONFIDENT OF ANY SSE WIND OCCURRENCE AT
KACY/KILG.
TONIGHT...VFR WITH LEFTOVER SC NEAR 7000-8000 FT TRAPPED IN AN
INVERSION. ALSO SCT-BKN THIN CIRRUS AOA 20000 FEET ARRIVING FROM
SSW TO NNE MAINLY AFTER 06Z/30. LIGHT OR CALM WIND SHOULD TREND NE
BY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
THU AND FRI...CEILINGS COULD LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR ESPECIALLY ACRS
THE S AND E AND WOULD MAINLY EFFECT KMIV/KACY WHERE RAIN IS
LIKELY. ITS PSBL THAT KABE/KRDG REMAIN VFR. HOWEVER, EVEN WHERE
THE IS NO RAIN, THERE COULD BE SOME PDS OF LWR CIGS. BREEZY
EASTERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY WIND PSBL LATER THU INTO FRI.
CONFIDENCE VERY LOW.
SAT AND SUN...MOSTLY VFR AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN AFTER SAT AM. .
MDT CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT.
NW WIND MAY GUST 15 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THIS MORNING THEN SOUTHERLY
SEA AND BAY BREEZES DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WIND
TONIGHT BECOMES A LIGHT NORTHEAST DRIFT BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
WAVE HEIGHTS AT OR BELOW 2 FT.
OUTLOOK...
THU MORNING...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
THU LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI...SCA CONDS EXPECTED AS WINDS GUST
AOA 30 KT AND SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS BUILD NEAR 7 FT.
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS COULD LINGER THROUGH
SAT MRNG, BUT WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE DECREASING.
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...NO MARINE FLAGS ANTICIPATED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 25 TO 35
PERCENT RANGE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WIND SPEEDS AND
GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 15 MPH, LIMITING THE CONCERN FOR
WILDFIRE SPREAD AT THAT TIME.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH THE FULL MOON ON SATURDAY, ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES BY FRIDAY
WILL ALREADY BE NEAR MEAN HIGHER HIGH WATER. THEREFORE, DEPENDING
ON HOW CLOSE THE COASTAL LOW TRACKS TO OUR REGION, THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THIS IS VERY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW,
AND AT THIS POINT, THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING FURTHER EAST WITH THE
TRACK, CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. THE FURTHER EAST THE TRACK IS, THE
LESS OF AN IMPACT FOR OUR REGION.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAINES
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG
MARINE...DRAG/NIERENBERG
FIRE WEATHER...DRAG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NIERENBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
655 AM EDT WED APR 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT RESIDES OVER THE REGION TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO A
POSITION OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST ON THURSDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE
TO TREK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER WONDERFUL SPRING DAY IN THE PHILLY AREA UNDER A WEAK
RIDGE ALOFT BETWEEN SLOWLY EASTWARD AND SEAWARD DEPARTING WESTERN
ATLANTIC CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND SOUTHWARD GROWING GREAT LAKES
UPPER LOW. AT THE SFC, WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER NNJ THIS
AFTERNOON.
A SUNNY START THEN SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON
PROBABLY AOA 6000 FT.
NW WIND GUSTY AROUND 15-20 MPH DURING MID LATE MORNING THEN
SETTLES DOWN A BIT MID AFTERNOON. COASTAL COOLING SEA BREEZES
EXPECTED BUT POSSIBLY NOT WIDESPREAD (00Z/30 ECMWF MUCH MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN THE 00Z/06Z NCEP MODELS). FOLLOWED 09Z HRRR ON
GUSTS THIS MORNING.
THERE IS A MODELED SFC LOW OVER NNJ THAT MAY ASSIST SEA BREEZES
NNJ.
MAX TEMPS ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. A COMBINATION OF LEFTOVER STRATOCU THIS
EVENING AND CIRRUS FROM THE SOMEWHAT DEVELOPING SE COAST LOW. THE
CIRRUS MOSTLY THIN, OVERSPREADS LATER AT NIGHT FROM SSW TO NNE.
INVERSION AT 7000 FT MAY TRAP CLOUDS AT THAT LEVEL MOST OF THE
NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CIG TONIGHT.
LOWS 3 OR MORE DEGREES MILDER THAN THE VALUES OF THIS WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IF CLOUDS 7000 FT.
LIGHT W-SW WIND PROBABLY TURNS LIGHT NE MOST AREAS BY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THU STARTS OUT DRY, WITH LOW PRES OFF THE SERN CONUS CST. THIS
LOW WILL MOVE NEWD THRU FRI, AS THE UPR LOW, NR THE OH VLY SWINGS
SEWD. PRECIP WILL DEVELOP NW OF THE SFC LOW AND PRBLY WITH THE UPR
LOW BUT EXACTLY WHERE REMAINS THE BIG QUESTION. IT STILL APPEARS
THE BEST CHCS OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER SRN AND ERN AREA, BUT THIS
WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW. ITS PSBL MOST LOCATIONS MAY
REMAIN DRY THRU THE DAY ON FRI, ESPECIALLY UP NORTH.
THE AXIS OF THE UPR TROF PASSES OFF THE CST FRI EVE AND THIS SHUD
FURTHER STEER THE LOW OUT TO SEA. HIGH PRES WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN
FROM THE W. BOTH MDLS IMPLY SOME LIGHT PRECIP IN NW FLOW ON SAT.
ITS PSBL, BUT IT WOULD BE LOW POPS.
BEYOND SAT, THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR MON AND MOVES OFF
THE CST MON NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND CMC HAVE DRY WX DURG THIS TIME
WITH WARM TEMPS AS SWLY FLOW INCREASES. THE GFS, ON THE OTHER HAND
SEEMS TO BE INEXPLICABLY WET AS WE GO MON SUN INTO MON, ESPECIALLY
UNDER HIGH PRES. THEREFORE, AM IGNORING ITS SOLN FOR NOW.
BY MON NIGHT INTO TUE, LOW PRES IN CANADA WILL BRING A CDFNT ACRS
THE NRN REACHES OF THE AREA. SOME PRECIP IS PSBL AND HAVE JUST
GONE WITH SOME LOW POPS. ONCE AGAIN, WHILE THE GFS HAS THE FRONT,
SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF, IT HAS QUITE A BIT MORE PRECIP AND WILL KEEP
THE DRIER TREND.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRI, WHERE THE REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY
THE UPR LOW AND PSBLY THE SFC OFF THE CST, TEMPS WILL BE AOA NRML
THRU THE EXTENDD PD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...VFR CLEAR TO START THEN SCT SC DURING THE AFTN AOA 6000
FT. NW WIND GUST 14KT-20KT 13Z-16Z THEN WIND DIMINISHING DURING
THE AFTERNOON. COASTAL SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS MODEL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE INLAND PENETRATION OF THE
SEA BREEZE AND AM LESS CONFIDENT OF ANY SSE WIND OCCURRENCE AT
KACY/KILG.
TONIGHT...VFR WITH LEFTOVER SC NEAR 7000-8000 FT TRAPPED IN AN
INVERSION. ALSO SCT-BKN THIN CIRRUS AOA 20000 FEET ARRIVING FROM
SSW TO NNE MAINLY AFTER 06Z/30. LIGHT OR CALM WIND SHOULD TREND NE
BY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
THU AND FRI...CEILINGS COULD LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR ESPECIALLY ACRS
THE S AND E AND WOULD MAINLY EFFECT KMIV/KACY WHERE RAIN IS
LIKELY. ITS PSBL THAT KABE/KRDG REMAIN VFR. HOWEVER, EVEN WHERE
THE IS NO RAIN, THERE COULD BE SOME PDS OF LWR CIGS. BREEZY
EASTERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY WIND PSBL LATER THU INTO FRI.
CONFIDENCE VERY LOW.
SAT AND SUN...MOSTLY VFR AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN AFTER SAT AM. .
MDT CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT.
NW WIND MAY GUST 15 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THIS MORNING THEN SOUTHERLY
SEA AND BAY BREEZES DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WIND
TONIGHT BECOMES A LIGHT NORTHEAST DRIFT BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
WAVE HEIGHTS AT OR BELOW 2 FT.
OUTLOOK...
THU MORNING...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
THU LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI...SCA CONDS EXPECTED AS WINDS GUST
AOA 30 KT AND SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS BUILD NEAR 7 FT.
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS COULD LINGER THROUGH
SAT MRNG, BUT WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE DECREASING.
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...NO MARINE FLAGS ANTICIPATED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 25 TO 35
PERCENT RANGE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WIND SPEEDS AND
GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 15 MPH, LIMITING THE CONCERN FOR
WILDFIRE SPREAD AT THAT TIME.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH THE FULL MOON ON SATURDAY, ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES BY FRIDAY
WILL ALREADY BE NEAR MEAN HIGHER HIGH WATER. THEREFORE, DEPENDING
ON HOW CLOSE THE COASTAL LOW TRACKS TO OUR REGION, THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THIS IS VERY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW,
AND AT THIS POINT, THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING FURTHER EAST WITH THE
TRACK, CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. THE FURTHER EAST THE TRACK IS, THE
LESS OF AN IMPACT FOR OUR REGION.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG 655A
SHORT TERM...DRAG 655A
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG 655A
MARINE...DRAG/NIERENBERG 655A
FIRE WEATHER...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1055 AM EDT WED APR 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 AM EDT WED APR 29 2015
CLOUD COVER SEEMS TO BE CONSTRAINED TO THE SOUTHERN AND FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES AS THE SFC LOW PASSES TO OUR SOUTH...SO HAVE
BUMPED TEMPS DOWN IN THOSE AREAS. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO
BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CLOUD COVER. SUSPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO TODAYS FORECAST
PERIOD. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT WED APR 29 2015
TOUCHED UP THE GRIDS A BIT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS PER THE
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT WED APR 29 2015
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF THE NATION. THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS ARE MAKING ONLY SLOW PROGRESS NORTH AND INTO TENNESSEE WHILE
THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 KEEP IT OUT OF KENTUCKY ENTIRELY.
HOWEVER...SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE MANAGED TO PUSH INTO
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE. THESE CLOUDS...AND A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN MOISTURE...ARE HELPING TO KEEP THE TEMPERATURES THERE...EVEN IN
MOST OF THE VALLEYS...MORE UNIFORM FROM 45 TO 50 DEGREES.
MEANWHILE...TO THE NORTH...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE
ALLOWED A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT TO DEVELOP WITH READINGS
VARYING FROM THE LOWER 50S ABOVE THE INVERSION TO THE LOWER 40S IN
THE SHELTERED SPOTS BELOW IT. DEWPOINTS...IN GENERAL...VARY ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE FAR SOUTH TO THE MID 30S IN THE
NORTH. WINDS THROUGHOUT EAST KENTUCKY ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IF
NOT OUTRIGHT CALM.
THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE SETTLING ON A SOLUTION AT MID LEVELS FOR
THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL AGREE WITH A
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OPENING UP AS IT MOVES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
TODAY. IT IS THEN JOINED BY A TRAILING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
DROPPING MAINLY SOUTH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THESE WAVES
WILL MAINTAIN A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE NATION
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE WILL THEN DESCEND
THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...SHARPENING UP AS IT
MOVES INTO KENTUCKY BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. THIS CLOSED...BUT FAIRLY
QUICK MOVING...LOW WILL PUNCH THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH PLENTY OF MID LEVEL ENERGY AND A CORE
OF COLDER 500 MB TEMPS. THE GFS STILL REMAINS THE STRONGEST MODEL
WITH THIS AND ALSO A BIT SLOWER. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE OTHERS
ARE COMING AROUND TO THIS IDEA...THOUGH...WITH THE NAM
REPRESENTING A GOOD COMPROMISE. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE GONE WITH A
MAINLY NAM12 SOLUTION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...ALONG WITH THE
WELL ALIGNED HRRR FOR TODAY/S PORTION.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY AS THE
SYSTEM PASSES HARMLESSLY TO THE SOUTH...ROBBING US OF ANOTHER
CHANCE TO GET SOME RAINFALL THAT WOULD GO TOWARD BREAKING THE
RECORD FOR THE MONTH HERE AT JKL. WITH LESS PCPN AND CLOUDS
ANTICIPATED TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
EXPECTED 24 HOURS AGO. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE BUMPED THEM UP INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 60S MOST PLACES. AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AT MID
LEVELS TONIGHT WILL BRING IN A DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WILL
LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT SERVE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER
UNIFORM. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY DAWN IN THE NORTHWEST PARTS
OF THE AREA AS THE SFC REFLECTION OF THAT MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES
INTO KENTUCKY. LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON
THURSDAY WITH CLIMBING CAPE AND FALLING LIS AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
OVERHEAD. AS A RESULT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THAT
MORNING AND A BETTER BET BY AFTERNOON DUE TO BETTER INSULATION AND
COLD MID LEVELS. HAVE UPGRADED THE THUNDER CHANCES TO SCATTERED
FROM SLIGHT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND AM ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT
GRAUPEL FROM ANY STRONGER SHOWER OF STORM SO WILL ADD A MENTION TO
THE FORTHCOMING HWO. THE CLOUDS AND CONVECTION WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE THURSDAY DESPITE THE THUNDER CHANCES.
FOR TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS/WINDS HAVE STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST AND THE SUPERBLEND
AFTER THAT. DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURES
BASED ON TERRAIN THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
SIMILAR TO LOWER GUIDANCE TODAY/TONIGHT AND A BIT HIGHER ON
THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT WED APR 29 2015
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT WET AND RAINY AS A WEATHER SYSTEM
PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. RUN OF THE MILL
RAIN SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE AREA AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OHIO VALLEY. COOLER AIR AND LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL
EFFECTIVELY KILL ANY CHANCES FOR THUNDER. THE RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT
IN NATURE AND WILL NOT CAUSE ANY HYDRO ISSUES. AFTER LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY AND WARM AS A LARGE AND RATHER
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
THE LONG TERM MODELS DO TRY TO PRODUCE A BIT OF SPOTTY PRECIPITATION
FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM SATURDAY
ONWARD...BUT CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE IN THE
MODELS...AND NO APPRECIABLE SIGNAL FOR PRECIP IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND TIME HEIGHTS...DECIDED TO KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE PICTURE
UNTIL THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD...WHEN THE GFS MODEL ATTEMPTS TO
SAG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD OUT OF INDIANA...OHIO...AND
ILLINOIS.
TEMPERATURES THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION AND WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTED WEATHER SYSTEM.
FROM SUNDAY ONWARD...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE MARKEDLY WARMER AS THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION...BRINGING LIGHT
WINDS AND AMPLE SUNSHINE TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. HIGHS ON
EACH OF THESE DAYS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH MAX READINGS
ON MONDAY TUESDAY POSSIBLE TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S AROUND THE
AREA. A FEW LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY MAY EVEN TOP 80 DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT WED APR 29 2015
STILL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAINLY HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE MORNING AND AND INTO THE START OF
THE AFTERNOON WITH A LOWER DECK OF CLOUDS LIKELY FORMING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH FROM MIDDAY ON...HOWEVER THESE WILL PROBABLY HOLD
AROUND 5K FEET AGL. SOME SHOWERS MAY THREATEN IN THE FAR SOUTH...
THOUGH THEY WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR SOUTH OF THE KENTUCKY BORDER
AND FAR FROM ANY TAF SITE. WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY OF VARIABLE DIRECTION WHEN NOT OUT
OF THE NORTH.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
755 AM EDT WED APR 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT WED APR 29 2015
TOUCHED UP THE GRIDS A BIT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS PER THE
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT WED APR 29 2015
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF THE NATION. THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS ARE MAKING ONLY SLOW PROGRESS NORTH AND INTO TENNESSEE WHILE
THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 KEEP IT OUT OF KENTUCKY ENTIRELY.
HOWEVER...SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE MANAGED TO PUSH INTO
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE. THESE CLOUDS...AND A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN MOISTURE...ARE HELPING TO KEEP THE TEMPERATURES THERE...EVEN IN
MOST OF THE VALLEYS...MORE UNIFORM FROM 45 TO 50 DEGREES.
MEANWHILE...TO THE NORTH...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE
ALLOWED A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT TO DEVELOP WITH READINGS
VARYING FROM THE LOWER 50S ABOVE THE INVERSION TO THE LOWER 40S IN
THE SHELTERED SPOTS BELOW IT. DEWPOINTS...IN GENERAL...VARY ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE FAR SOUTH TO THE MID 30S IN THE
NORTH. WINDS THROUGHOUT EAST KENTUCKY ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IF
NOT OUTRIGHT CALM.
THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE SETTLING ON A SOLUTION AT MID LEVELS FOR
THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL AGREE WITH A
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OPENING UP AS IT MOVES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
TODAY. IT IS THEN JOINED BY A TRAILING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
DROPPING MAINLY SOUTH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THESE WAVES
WILL MAINTAIN A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE NATION
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE WILL THEN DESCEND
THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...SHARPENING UP AS IT
MOVES INTO KENTUCKY BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. THIS CLOSED...BUT FAIRLY
QUICK MOVING...LOW WILL PUNCH THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH PLENTY OF MID LEVEL ENERGY AND A CORE
OF COLDER 500 MB TEMPS. THE GFS STILL REMAINS THE STRONGEST MODEL
WITH THIS AND ALSO A BIT SLOWER. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE OTHERS
ARE COMING AROUND TO THIS IDEA...THOUGH...WITH THE NAM
REPRESENTING A GOOD COMPROMISE. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE GONE WITH A
MAINLY NAM12 SOLUTION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...ALONG WITH THE
WELL ALIGNED HRRR FOR TODAY/S PORTION.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY AS THE
SYSTEM PASSES HARMLESSLY TO THE SOUTH...ROBBING US OF ANOTHER
CHANCE TO GET SOME RAINFALL THAT WOULD GO TOWARD BREAKING THE
RECORD FOR THE MONTH HERE AT JKL. WITH LESS PCPN AND CLOUDS
ANTICIPATED TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
EXPECTED 24 HOURS AGO. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE BUMPED THEM UP INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 60S MOST PLACES. AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AT MID
LEVELS TONIGHT WILL BRING IN A DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WILL
LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT SERVE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER
UNIFORM. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY DAWN IN THE NORTHWEST PARTS
OF THE AREA AS THE SFC REFLECTION OF THAT MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES
INTO KENTUCKY. LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON
THURSDAY WITH CLIMBING CAPE AND FALLING LIS AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
OVERHEAD. AS A RESULT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THAT
MORNING AND A BETTER BET BY AFTERNOON DUE TO BETTER INSOLATION AND
COLD MID LEVELS. HAVE UPGRADED THE THUNDER CHANCES TO SCATTERED
FROM SLIGHT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND AM ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT
GRAUPEL FROM ANY STRONGER SHOWER OF STORM SO WILL ADD A MENTION TO
THE FORTHCOMING HWO. THE CLOUDS AND CONVECTION WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE THURSDAY DESPITE THE THUNDER CHANCES.
FOR TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS/WINDS HAVE STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST AND THE SUPERBLEND
AFTER THAT. DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURES
BASED ON TERRAIN THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
SIMILAR TO LOWER GUIDANCE TODAY/TONIGHT AND A BIT HIGHER ON
THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT WED APR 29 2015
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT WET AND RAINY AS A WEATHER SYSTEM
PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. RUN OF THE MILL
RAIN SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE AREA AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OHIO VALLEY. COOLER AIR AND LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL
EFFECTIVELY KILL ANY CHANCES FOR THUNDER. THE RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT
IN NATURE AND WILL NOT CAUSE ANY HYDRO ISSUES. AFTER LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY AND WARM AS A LARGE AND RATHER
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
THE LONG TERM MODELS DO TRY TO PRODUCE A BIT OF SPOTTY PRECIPITATION
FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM SATURDAY
ONWARD...BUT CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE IN THE
MODELS...AND NO APPRECIABLE SIGNAL FOR PRECIP IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND TIME HEIGHTS...DECIDED TO KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE PICTURE
UNTIL THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD...WHEN THE GFS MODEL ATTEMPTS TO
SAG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD OUT OF INDIANA...OHIO...AND
ILLINOIS.
TEMPERATURES THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION AND WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTED WEATHER SYSTEM.
FROM SUNDAY ONWARD...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE MARKEDLY WARMER AS THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION...BRINGING LIGHT
WINDS AND AMPLE SUNSHINE TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. HIGHS ON
EACH OF THESE DAYS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH MAX READINGS
ON MONDAY TUESDAY POSSIBLE TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S AROUND THE
AREA. A FEW LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY MAY EVEN TOP 80 DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT WED APR 29 2015
STILL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAINLY HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE MORNING AND AND INTO THE START OF
THE AFTERNOON WITH A LOWER DECK OF CLOUDS LIKELY FORMING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH FROM MIDDAY ON...HOWEVER THESE WILL PROBABLY HOLD
AROUND 5K FEET AGL. SOME SHOWERS MAY THREATEN IN THE FAR SOUTH...
THOUGH THEY WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR SOUTH OF THE KENTUCKY BORDER
AND FAR FROM ANY TAF SITE. WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY OF VARIABLE DIRECTION WHEN NOT OUT
OF THE NORTH.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TYPO
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1035 AM EDT WED APR 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE FRIDAY
SETTING THE STAGE FOR A WONDERFUL WEEKEND OF WEATHER. THE NICE
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM WEDNESDAY...UNFORTUNATELY MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO
THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 6-9 HOURS. ALL MODELS...EVEN THE LATEST
RUNS OF THE RUC & HRRR...ARE HAVING SERIOUS ISSUES SEEING THE WIDE
GAP BETWEEN THIS MORNING`S LEAD BATCH OF RAIN AND THE SECOND BATCH
OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING
EAST ACROSS GEORGIA.
FIRST OF ALL...THE LEAD BATCH OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS NE SOUTH
CAROLINA THIS MORNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT
ALONG THE 305K-315K THETA SURFACES. IF YOU LOOK THIS UP ON A
FORECAST SKEW-T YOU`LL SEE THIS IS ALL 9000+ FEET ABOVE GROUND WITH
DRIER AIR BELOW THE CLOUD DECK. RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN RECORDED AS
HIGH AS .08 IN/HR AT GEORGETOWN SC...WITH ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS UP AT
FLORENCE. BEHIND THIS BATCH OF RAIN...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS BREAKS
IN THE OVERCAST ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND PIEDMONT REGION OF SOUTH
CAROLINA. AS THIS ADVECTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RESPOND QUICKLY THIS TO PERIOD OF SUNSHINE. I HAVE RAISED
FORECAST HIGHS BY 5 DEGREES FROM DARLINGTON AND BENNETTSVILLE ACROSS
LUMBERTON AND ELIZABETHTOWN...WITH LESSER INCREASES ELSEWHERE.
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WILL DAMPEN OUT
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS LATER TODAY. HOWEVER THERE
SHOULD STILL BE A FAIRLY ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE...REACHING INTERSTATE 95 AS EARLY AS NOON-1 PM...AND
WORKING ITS WAY DOWN TO THE NC/SC BEACHES BETWEEN 2-4 PM. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY SLIGHT ELEVATED INSTABILITY BASED AROUND
8000-9000 FEET UP...WHICH SHOULD ADD A MINOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENT TO
THE BATCH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL. THIS SHOULD BRING A
WIDESPREAD 0.1 TO 0.2 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH SPOTTIER HEAVIER AMOUNTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN
JUST IF AND WHEN HIGHER POPS WILL BE REQUIRED THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD.
INITIALLY LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OFF THE CAPE FEAR COAST WITH
SHEARED VORTICITY MOVING ACROSS AT THE MID LEVELS. A BAND OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL IS DEPICTED BY THE GFS NEAR THE COAST AND IS REFLECTED IN
THE MOS NUMBERS. I HAVE INCREASED POPS THROUGH 1800 UTC THURSDAY
MOSTLY ALONG THE COAST. THE REMAINDER OF THE POPS WILL BE DICTATED
BY THE MID LEVEL LOW SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY.
I HAVE LOWER VALUES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH STILL NOT REMOVING
ENTIRELY INCREASING SOMEWHAT FOR THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY. OVERALL
THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE THE LAST TIMEFRAME FOR DECENT RAINFALL AS THE
REMAINDER OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING
FRIDAY ESPECIALLY SOUTH AS THE SYSTEM FINALLY PULLS AWAY.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST REQUIRED ONLY MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS TO GRAVITATE
MORE TOWARD THE LATEST GFS/MAV NUMBERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ALL BUT UNCHANGED WITH
THE MORNING UPDATE AS A MOSTLY ZONAL AND RELATIVELY WEAK MID
LEVEL PATTERN DEVELOPS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO WELL OFFSHORE...ASSUMING THE BERMUDA
POSITION THAT WE WILL BE SEEING MUCH MORE OF IN THE COMING MONTHS.
DONT SEE ANY POPS IN THE FORECAST. ONE INTERESTING NOTE IS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL OR MORE LIKE A SUBTROPICAL FEATURE
CONSIDERING WATER TEMPERATURES NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEXT
WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THIS FEATURE BUT VERY PREMATURE
TO DIAGNOSE AT THIS POINT. STILL SOMETHING TO WATCH. TEMPERATURE
TRENDS REMAIN IN PLACE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE INITIALLY WARMING TO
ABOVE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...VFR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WILL GRADUALLY
DETERIORATE TO MVFR/POTENTIAL IFR LATER TODAY AS LOW
CLOUDS...AREAS OF FOG...AND PERIODS OF RAIN MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA.
VFR PREVAILS THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...AND AS
SEEN FROM LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AROUND
KFLO/KMYR/KCRE. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE -RA/SHRA INFILTRATE EAST-
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY TODAY AND THIS
EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE CREATES UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY...INCREASING TO AOB 10 KTS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
POSSIBLY ALONG THE COAST. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...RAIN WILL
TAPER OFF BUT LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG WILL LINGER...CREATING
MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A CONTINUING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 WEDNESDAY...THE SUITE OF COMPUTER MODELS AVAILABLE TO US
IS STRUGGLING GREATLY WITH CURRENT WIND DIRECTIONS. OBSERVATIONS
ACROSS THE AREA SHOW VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS WITH SPEEDS 6 KNOTS OR
LESS AT THE BEACHES. FARTHER OFFSHORE WHERE THE SYNOPTIC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WOULD SUGGEST A NORTHEAST WIND WE ARE SEEING VARIABILITY
HERE AS WELL DUE TO SHOWERS 20+ MILES OFFSHORE PRODUCING SOME
OUTFLOW WIND EFFECTS. AS THE WEAK LOW OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
BECOMES A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND MOVES CLOSER THIS AFTERNOON WE
ANTICIPATE EASTERLY WINDS TO BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED. THERE MAY
STILL BE REMAINING VARIABILITY HOWEVER DUE TO ANOTHER WAVE OF
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS FROM THE
WEST.
I HAVE INCREASED FORECAST SEA HEIGHTS BY 1 FOOT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY. CURRENT WAVE OBSERVATIONS FROM LOCAL BUOYS
INDICATE 2 FEET NEARSHORE AND 3 FEET OUT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS
BUOY...ABOUT 1 FOOT HIGHER THEN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ABOUT 150 MILES OFF THE
CAPE FEAR COAST THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
DURING THE DAY. WINDS...INITIALLY FROM THE NORTH WILL TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST BY MIDDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 15-20 KNOTS. WIND SPEEDS
WILL DIMINISH TO A RANGE OF 10-15 KNOTS THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
IN THIS RANGE AND DIRECTION FOR MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY. A SECONDARY
SURGE WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY KICKING WINDS BACK UP TO 15-20 KNOTS
DIMINISHING ONCE AGAIN BY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THIS PATTERN THE
HIGHER SEAS WILL RELEGATED TO THE OUTER WATERS. HEIGHTS WILL MOSTLY
BE 2-4 FEET BUT GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A FEW SIX FOOTERS ACROSS THE NC
WATERS LATE FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...NICE CONDITIONS FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A LITTLE BREEZY TO START WITH WINDS FROM
THE NORTHWEST AT 10-15 KNOTS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. SHOULD SEE TEN KNOTS OR
LESS BY SUNDAY MORNING. A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS LATER SUNDAY WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ONCE AGAIN...TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL
BE 1-3 FEET THROUGHOUT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1033 AM EDT WED APR 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE FRIDAY
SETTING THE STAGE FOR A WONDERFUL WEEKEND OF WEATHER. THE NICE
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM WEDNESDAY...UNFORTUNATELY MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO
THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 6-9 HOURS. ALL MODELS...EVEN THE LATEST
RUNS OF THE RUC & HRRR...ARE HAVE SERIOUS ISSUES SEEING THE WIDE GAP
BETWEEN THIS MORNING`S LEAD BATCH OF RAIN AND THE SECOND BATCH OF
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING EAST
ACROSS GEORGIA.
FIRST OF ALL...THE LEAD BATCH OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS NE SOUTH
CAROLINA THIS MORNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT
ALONG THE 305K-315K THETA SURFACES. IF YOU LOOK THIS UP ON A
FORECAST SKEW-T YOU`LL SEE THIS IS ALL 9000+ FEET ABOVE GROUND WITH
DRIER AIR BELOW THE CLOUD DECK. RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN RECORDED AS
HIGH AS .08 IN/HR AT GEORGETOWN SC...WITH ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS UP AT
FLORENCE. BEHIND THIS BATCH OF RAIN...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS BREAKS
IN THE OVERCAST ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND PIEDMONT REGION OF SOUTH
CAROLINA. AS THIS ADVECTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RESPOND QUICKLY THIS TO PERIOD OF SUNSHINE. I HAVE RAISED
FORECAST HIGHS BY UP TO 5 DEGREES FROM DARLINGTON AND BENNETTSVILLE
ACROSS LUMBERTON AND ELIZABETHTOWN...WITH LESSER INCREASES
ELSEWHERE.
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WILL DAMPEN OUT
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS LATER TODAY. HOWEVER THERE
SHOULD STILL BE A FAIRLY ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE...REACHING INTERSTATE 95 AS EARLY AS NOON-1 PM...AND
WORKING ITS WAY DOWN TO THE NC/SC BEACHES BETWEEN 2-4 PM. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY SLIGHT ELEVATED INSTABILITY BASED AROUND
8000-9000 FEET UP...WHICH SHOULD ADD A MINOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENT TO
THE BATCH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL. THIS SHOULD BRING A
WIDESPREAD 0.1 TO 0.2 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH SPOTTIER HEAVIER AMOUNTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN
JUST IF AND WHEN HIGHER POPS WILL BE REQUIRED THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD.
INITIALLY LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OFF THE CAPE FEAR COAST WITH
SHEARED VORTICITY MOVING ACROSS AT THE MID LEVELS. A BAND OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL IS DEPICTED BY THE GFS NEAR THE COAST AND IS REFLECTED IN
THE MOS NUMBERS. I HAVE INCREASED POPS THROUGH 1800 UTC THURSDAY
MOSTLY ALONG THE COAST. THE REMAINDER OF THE POPS WILL BE DICTATED
BY THE MID LEVEL LOW SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY.
I HAVE LOWER VALUES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH STILL NOT REMOVING
ENTIRELY INCREASING SOMEWHAT FOR THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY. OVERALL
THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE THE LAST TIMEFRAME FOR DECENT RAINFALL AS THE
REMAINDER OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING
FRIDAY ESPECIALLY SOUTH AS THE SYSTEM FINALLY PULLS AWAY.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST REQUIRED ONLY MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS TO GRAVITATE
MORE TOWARD THE LATEST GFS/MAV NUMBERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ALL BUT UNCHANGED WITH
THE MORNING UPDATE AS A MOSTLY ZONAL AND RELATIVELY WEAK MID
LEVEL PATTERN DEVELOPS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO WELL OFFSHORE...ASSUMING THE BERMUDA
POSITION THAT WE WILL BE SEEING MUCH MORE OF IN THE COMING MONTHS.
DONT SEE ANY POPS IN THE FORECAST. ONE INTERESTING NOTE IS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL OR MORE LIKE A SUBTROPICAL FEATURE
CONSIDERING WATER TEMPERATURES NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEXT
WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THIS FEATURE BUT VERY PREMATURE
TO DIAGNOSE AT THIS POINT. STILL SOMETHING TO WATCH. TEMPERATURE
TRENDS REMAIN IN PLACE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE INITIALLY WARMING TO
ABOVE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...VFR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WILL GRADUALLY
DETERIORATE TO MVFR/POTENTIAL IFR LATER TODAY AS LOW
CLOUDS...AREAS OF FOG...AND PERIODS OF RAIN MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA.
VFR PREVAILS THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...AND AS
SEEN FROM LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AROUND
KFLO/KMYR/KCRE. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE -RA/SHRA INFILTRATE EAST-
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY TODAY AND THIS
EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE CREATES UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY...INCREASING TO AOB 10 KTS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
POSSIBLY ALONG THE COAST. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...RAIN WILL
TAPER OFF BUT LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG WILL LINGER...CREATING
MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A CONTINUING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 WEDNESDAY...THE SUITE OF COMPUTER MODELS AVAILABLE TO US
IS STRUGGLING GREATLY WITH CURRENT WIND DIRECTIONS. OBSERVATIONS
ACROSS THE AREA SHOW VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS WITH SPEEDS 6 KNOTS OR
LESS AT THE BEACHES. FARTHER OFFSHORE WHERE THE SYNOPTIC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WOULD SUGGEST A NORTHEAST WIND WE ARE SEEING VARIABILITY
HERE AS WELL DUE TO SHOWERS 20+ MILES OFFSHORE PRODUCING SOME
OUTFLOW WIND EFFECTS. AS THE WEAK LOW OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
BECOMES A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND MOVES CLOSER THIS AFTERNOON WE
ANTICIPATE EASTERLY WINDS TO BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED. THERE MAY
STILL BE REMAINING VARIABILITY HOWEVER DUE TO ANOTHER WAVE OF
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS FROM THE
WEST.
I HAVE INCREASED FORECAST SEA HEIGHTS BY 1 FOOT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY. CURRENT WAVE OBSERVATIONS FROM LOCAL BUOYS
INDICATE 2 FEET NEARSHORE AND 3 FEET OUT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS
BUOY...ABOUT 1 FOOT HIGHER THEN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ABOUT 150 MILES OFF THE
CAPE FEAR COAST THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
DURING THE DAY. WINDS...INITIALLY FROM THE NORTH WILL TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST BY MIDDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 15-20 KNOTS. WIND SPEEDS
WILL DIMINISH TO A RANGE OF 10-15 KNOTS THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
IN THIS RANGE AND DIRECTION FOR MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY. A SECONDARY
SURGE WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY KICKING WINDS BACK UP TO 15-20 KNOTS
DIMINISHING ONCE AGAIN BY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THIS PATTERN THE
HIGHER SEAS WILL RELEGATED TO THE OUTER WATERS. HEIGHTS WILL MOSTLY
BE 2-4 FEET BUT GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A FEW SIX FOOTERS ACROSS THE NC
WATERS LATE FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...NICE CONDITIONS FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A LITTLE BREEZY TO START WITH WINDS FROM
THE NORTHWEST AT 10-15 KNOTS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. SHOULD SEE TEN KNOTS OR
LESS BY SUNDAY MORNING. A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS LATER SUNDAY WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ONCE AGAIN...TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL
BE 1-3 FEET THROUGHOUT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1156 AM EDT WED APR 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN FAIR WEATHER ACROSS
MOST OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. AN UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...AND
EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BRING SHOWERS TO
THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A RELATIVELY COOL END TO THE
WEEK SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF MAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NOON UPDATE...
ALL IS WELL. HRRR DOES MAKE A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE PLACES WITH THE
TALLER CU. WILL HOLD ONTO THE THEROY THAT IF THEY DO TRY TO
PRECIPITATE THAT IT WON/T REACH THE GROUND OR BE SIGNIFICANT
ENOUGH TO HAVE IN THE FCST.
10 AM UPDATE...
TEMPS SKYROCKETING AFTER ABYSMAL LOWS AT THE USUAL COLD SPOTS.
RIDGES WARMED FIRST BUT THE VALLEYS HAVE CAUGHT UP. NUDGED AFTN
TEMPS/MAXES UP SLIGHTLY...BUT COOL TEMPS ALOFT AND CU DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD KEEP IT FROM GETTING TOO WARM. AS STATED PREVIOUSLY...SOME
CU MAY GROW TALL OVER THE NRN MTS AND LAURELS AND MAY PRODUCE
DROPS BIG ENOUGH TO PRECIP BUT THE AIR IS GOING TO BE SO DRY IN
THE 4-5KFT BELOW THE CLOUD BASE THAT IT SHOULD HARDLY REACH THE
GROUND. POPS NIL THRU 00Z.
PREV...
M/CLR SKIES THIS MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A MIX OF SUN AND
CU/SC BY AFTN. AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND NICELY TO NEAR AVG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE NW ALLEGHENIES TO THE LOW 70S
ACROSS THE LOWER SQV.
THE OPERATIONAL GFS SEEMS TOO BULLISH IN GENERATING LGT QPF AMTS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES BY 00Z THU. THIS IS PROBABLY
MORE INDICATIVE OF SOME BKN CIGS. WILL KEEP FCST DRY THRU THE
EARLY EVE GIVEN VERY WEAK FORCING/LIFT AND MEAGER LOW LEVEL MSTR.
SLIGHTLY BETTER FORCING ARRIVES TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW AND COMPACT
AREA OF 500MB HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES DROPS
SWD INTO THE UPPER OH VLY BY 12Z THU. MODEL CONSENSUS APPEARS TO
BE FOCUSING A STRIPE OF QPF ALONG THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
LOW AND HAVE PLACED HIGHEST CHC POPS OVER THE WRN HIGH TERRAIN.
MORE CLOUDS AND A BIT MORE LLVL MSTR SHOULD SUPPORT WARMER
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40-50F RANGE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ALL OPER GUIDANCE TRACKS UPPER LOW SE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
THU...THEN OVR THE S APPALACHIANS THU NIGHT. THIS SCENARIO AND LACK
OF MDL SPREAD SUPPORTS A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY ACROSS
THE SW COUNTIES...WHERE MDLS PLACE ASSOC SFC TROUGH AND PLUME OF
HIGHER PWATS. BASED ON GEFS/SREF OUTPUT...POPS RANGE FROM
CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...TO CHC OVR THE EASTERN
COUNTIES. POCKET OF COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASING
COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION BY THU AFTN. TSRA APPEAR POSSIBLE
IN SPOTS BASED ON MARGINALLY UNSTABLE MDL SOUNDINGS.
MAX TEMPS THU ARE LKLY TO RANGE FROM THE M50S ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU...WHERE SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS...TO THE U60S ACROSS
THE SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE BREAKS OF SUN WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS.
EXPECT DIMINISHING COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SHOWERS THU NIGHT AS BLYR
COOLS/STABILIZES. HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SW
COUNTIES...CLOSEST TO UPPER LOW AND ALONG INVERTED SFC
TROUGH/AXIS OF HIGHEST PWATS. CONSALL 36HR QPF ENDING THU NIGHT
RANGES FROM ALMOST AN INCH OVR SOMERSET CO...TO LESS THAN A TENTH
OF AN INCH EAST OF THE SUSQ RIVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LINGERING COLD TEMPS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES DIVING
INTO BASE OF UPPER TROUGH OVR PA...SHOULD PROMOTE SCT DIURNAL
SHOWERS FRI AND SAT. PLENTY OF CU/SC EXPECTED BENEATH UPPER TROF
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE U50S/L60S FRIDAY...THEN BRIGHTER/MILDER WX
LIKELY SAT...AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE OVR THE NORTHEAST CONUS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A WARMING TREND SUN-TUE...AS ALL MED RANGE
GUIDANCE SHOWS A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS. AS
SFC HIGH PUSHES OFF THE E COAST...RETURN SW FLOW WILL ADVECT
INCREASINGLY WARM AIR INTO PA. GEFS AND ECENS MEAN 8H TEMPS RISE
TO BTWN 10-12C BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...IMPLYING WIDESPREAD 70S FOR
HIGHS AND SOME 80S IN THE S VALLEYS. ECENS TRACKS A WEAK NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL
INTRODUCE AN INCREASING CHC OF SHRA/TSRA LATE MON/TUE...AS ASSOC
DYING COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD FROM NY STATE.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
29/12Z...VFR FLYING WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH M/CLR
SKIES THIS MORNING GIVING WAY TO SCT-BKN CIGS 050-100 BY 00Z.
CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD LATE-DAY SHOWER OVER THE FAR SW AIRSPACE
ALONG THE RIDGES INVOF JST BUT CONFIDENCE/COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION ATTM. CONFIDENCE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE WRN AIRSPACE
IN ZOB SECTOR INCREASES FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS
UPPER LOW DROPS SWD FROM NRN MI INTO THE UPPER OH VLY. THEREFORE
HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT BFD/JST WITH 2KFT MVFR CIGS AFT 06Z. MDL
DATA LEANS TOWARD IFR AT THESE SITES BY 12Z BUT WAS NOT AS
PESSIMISTIC WITH THIS ISSUANCE. ALSO INTRODUCED SOME MVFR ACROSS
THE CNTRL SITES UNV/AOO AS LLVL MSTR STARTS TO INCREASE AND WINDS
SHIFT TO THE EAST. EXPECT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO INCREASE DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL AIRSPACE.
OUTLOOK...
THU-FRI...LOW VFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
SAT-SUN...VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1011 AM CDT WED APR 29 2015
.UPDATE...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OVER PARTS OF THE PLATEAU
THIS MORNING...GENERALLY FROM ALTAMONT TO CROSSVILLE. THESE
SHOWERS WERE ON THE FRINGE OF A BATCH OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND MID LEVEL LOW. THESE SYSTEMS WILL
CONTINUE PULLING EAST...SO POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED AND CONFINED TO
JUST EXTREME EASTERN SECTIONS OF OUR AREA. MEANWHILE...SUNSHINE
WAS PLENTIFUL WEST OF THE PLATEAU WITH MID MORNING TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY...A DRY LOOKING TROUGH AROUND 500 MB WILL
DROP ACROSS TN. THIS WILL CREATE SOME STEEPER LAPSE
RATES...RESULTING IN SCT- BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS. EVEN WITH THE SCT-
BKN CLOUDS...TEMPS ARE ON TRACK TO REACH THE LOWER 70S WEST OF THE
PLATEAU. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S ON THE PLATEAU WHERE
THE CLOUDS WILL BE THICKER AND MORE PERSISTENT.
13
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 AM CDT WED APR 29 2015/
UPDATE...
12Z TAFS.
AVIATION...
SFC LOW CROSSING THE GULF...THROUGH NORTH FL AND INTO THE ATLANTIC
WILL HELP KEEP DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH/EAST AHEAD OF FAIRLY DEEP
UPPER TROUGH. CSV MAY HAVE A FEW SHOWERS LATER TODAY BUT OVERALL
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT IS EXPECTED TO THE MID-STATE. CSV HOWEVER
COULD GET SOME MVFR LEVEL FOG TOWARD 12Z/THU BUT VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ALL SITES OTHERWISE.
340 AM CDT WED APR 29 2015
.DISCUSSION...
REFLECTIVITY IMAGES CLEARLY SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CURRENTLY
OVER NW AL. THE MOISTURE IS ON THE SE SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WHICH EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOWS CENTER. AT THE SFC...INVERTED
TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE NRN GULF NNE ACROSS NWRN GA. LOW LEVEL
FORCING IS IN PLACE ALONG THE AXIS. HOWEVER...THE NRN EXTENT OF
THE MOISTURE IS ONLY AS FAR NORTH AS OUR FAR SRN COUNTIES.
LATEST HRRR DATA KEEPS THE MOISTURE ACROSS OUR FAR
SOUTH...EVENTUALLY SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLATEAU. IN KEEPING WITH THAT TREND...WILL CARRY LOW SHOWER CHANCES
FOR THE SOUTH AND EAST ONLY.
TONIGHT...THE SFC TROUGH PUSHES EAST OF OUR AREA. PARTIAL CLOUDINESS
TO REMAIN ALONG WITH COOL TEMPS AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.
ON THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS
EASTERN KY. SOME BACKSIDE MOISTURE DOES APPEAR TO EXIST AND WILL
THEREFORE CARRY A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN. ON THIS DAY...I
WILL UNDERCUT THE MAV GUIDANCE RATHER CONSIDERABLY AS CLOUDS...LOW
850 MB TEMPS...AND A FAIRLY STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALL PREVAIL.
IN THE EXT FCST...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST RATHER QUICKLY. THIS WILL LEAVE A PATTERN
WHEREBY RISING HEIGHTS WILL BE THE RULE. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...SOME
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL GAIN A STRONGHOLD ON THE WEATHER
SCENARIO. THIS WILL EQUATE TO HIGH TEMPS PUSHING INTO THE 80S WITH
LOW TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. SO...WARM AND DRY DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED.
STILL NO ORGANIZED COLD FRONT TO SPEAK OF. UPCOMING PATTERN APPEARS
TO BE PUTTING THE CLAMPS ON ANY UPCOMING SEVERE WX POTENTIAL.
MEANWHILE...MAY IS JUST A FEW DAYS AWAY.
21
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
1034 AM EDT WED APR 29 2015
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST MOSTLY ON TRACK THIS MORNING...BUT WITH A FEW
MINOR UPDATES. BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS ACROSS SWVA BY A FEW DEGREES AS
TEMPS HEATED UP MORE QUICKLY THIS MORNING DUE SLOWER ARRIVAL OF
CLOUD COVER. VIS SAT NOW SHOWS CLOUDS FILLING INTO THAT AREA.
DECREASED POPS ACROSS THE PLATEAU FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS HRRR
AND RUC BOTH SHOW BEST CHANCES OF RAIN STAYING WELL EAST OF I-75.
QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT TODAY NORTH OF I-40...A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH. ALSO DECREASES CLOUD COVER ACROSS MARION...BLEDSOE...AND
SEQUATCHIE DOWN TO PARTLY SUNNY AS CLOUDS SLOWY PULL EAST THROUGH
THE DAY. TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPS TO MATCH UP WITH LATEST OBS. SEVERAL
SPOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY AND SWVA WERE RUNNING 5 TO 8
DEGREES TO LOW IN HOURLY GRID TEMPS DUE TO SLOWER ARRIVAL OF
CLOUDS. NEW ZONES REFLECT TEMP UPDATES...CLOUD COVER...AND POPS FOR
THE AFFECTED AREAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 67 49 69 46 / 80 30 20 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 65 49 65 44 / 60 20 50 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 66 49 65 44 / 50 20 40 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 64 45 61 43 / 60 30 70 50
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
959 AM EDT WED APR 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...
BRINGING WARMER AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF BACKING OFF ON POPS TODAY BASED UPON
THE LATEST HRRR AND RNK WRK ARW GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...HAVE SLOWED THE
ONSET OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA...AND SPREADING NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.
COVERAGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE THE GREATEST ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO DECREASED
THE EXTENT OF THE COVERAGE HEAD INTO...AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
AS OF 734 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
CONTINUE TO SEE SLOWER PROGRESS NORTH INTO THE DRIER AIR WE HAVE
IN PLACE...SO BACKED OFF POPS AGAIN AND LOWERED SKY COVER AND
TEMPS EARLY ON BASED ON OBS. STILL LOOKS LIKE MAINLY WRN CWA AFTER
MIDDAY TO SEE SOME SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN...STILL
PATCHY/SCATTERED...WITH MORE COVERAGE TOWARD THE NC MTNS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 4 AM....
OVERALL THE FORECAST EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE DRIER TODAY THAN
WHAT IS APPEARED 24 TO 60 HRS AGO. THIS MORNING...THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH WAS SITUATED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH WEAK FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA. MAIN AREA OF RAINFALL AND LIFT WAS WELL
SOUTH OF US FROM NRN ALABAMA INTO SC.
THE MODELS IN AGREEMENT WHICH SPELLS AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS THIS MORNING...THEN MORE LOWER CLOUDS INTO THE SRN CWA BY LATE
MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITH INCREASING
LIFT...THOUGH THE LOW LVL FLOW IS NOT THAT STRONG.
THE MODELS TAKE THE SFC LOW FROM THE FL PANHANDLE THIS MORNING TO
WELL OFF THE SC COAST BY THIS EVENING...WHILE NRN STREAM ENERGY
DIVES SE INTO THE GREAT LAKES FORMING A WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC. NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH RAIN THREAT TODAY BUT THE PATTERN
FAVORS THE BLUE RIDGE AND WEST HAVING A BETTER CHANCE THAN THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST OVER THE PIEDMONT. HAVE BACKED OFF POPS THIS
MORNING AND SITUATE HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS FROM THE NEW
RIVER VALLEY SOUTH AND WEST TO SRN WV/NW NC. QPF WITH THIS WILL BE
UNDER A QUARTER INCH...WITH MOST ONLY SEEING A FEW HUNDREDTHS.
FOR TEMPS...THINK ENOUGH SUNSHINE IN THE VA PIEDMONT THROUGH HIGH
CLOUDS ALLOWS READINGS TO CLIMB TO LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON WHILE IT
WILL STAY COOLER OVER THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE WHERE SHOWERS/RAIN
MOVE IN QUICKER. THIS AREA WILL ONLY EXPERIENCE HIGHS IN THE 50S.
ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE IN THE 60S.
TONIGHT...THE SRN SHORTWAVE DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES...SOME BACKING FLOW AND DIGGING NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO ALLOW
SOME UPPER FORCING OVER THE MTNS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH THAT RAINFALL
WILL BE NUMEROUS...SO KEPT POPS 50 PERCENT OR LESS TIL DAWN..WHEN
THE UPPER TROUGH HEADS CLOSER WITH BETTER LIFT.
LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S. WEAK SFC WINDS AND INCREASED SFC
MOISTURE EVEN WITH CLOUDS WILL LEAD TO A THREAT OF FOG AREAWIDE...SO
ADDED THAT TO THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE TO BE CONCERNED WITH ON THURSDAY WILL BE AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DESCENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
DURING THE MORNING...REACHING EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING THE EVENING.
THE COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIVE
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES INTO OUR AREA...MEANING THAT WHILE AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
TO THE UPPER 60S FURTHER EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL RAPIDLY WITH
HEIGHT...FALLING BELOW FREEZING SOME FOUR TO SEVEN THOUSAND FEET
ABOVE THE SURFACE. WITH FREEZING HEIGHTS SO LOW...BELIEVE THAT EVEN
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...WHILE ONE
OR TWO OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE QUARTER-SIZE HAIL. IN
ADDITION...WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS...MAY ALSO SEE A COUPLE OF
THE STRONGER CELLS PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY DOWNDRAFTS. WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AROUND SUNSET...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN...BUT EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT QUICKLY FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS DURING THE MORNING...TO OFF THE COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS REDEVELOP DURING THE
MORNING...MORE SO ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...AS DAYTIME HEATING
INCREASES. HOWEVER SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD AIR ALOFT EXITS...WITH DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW TAKING OVER AND ADDING STABILITY TO THE ATMOSPHERE. THE PASSAGE
OF THE UPPER LOW WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER DAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S WEST TO THE LOW 60S EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS ON SATURDAY...WHILE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BEGINS A TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN. THE
INCREASED SUNSHINE...ALBEIT WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON CLOUDS...WILL
COMBINE WITH THE DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW TO PUSH AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE
MID 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND INTO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S EACH NIGHT. BELIEVE CLOUD
COVER ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WILL KEEP FROST FORMATION
ISOLATED AT BEST...IF ANY AT ALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT TUESDAY...
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE FAIRLY HARMONIOUS, DEPICTING GENTLY
UNDULATING ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE A CHANGE FROM THE HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW WE
HAVE ENDURED THIS MONTH SUGGESTING THE COOL AIR WILL FINALLY MAKE
A RETREAT. AS HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES RISE LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS...+4 TO +8 DEGREES...FOR THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF MAY.
THREAT FOR RAINFALL NEXT WEEK LOOKS MINIMAL FOR THE MID
ATLANTIC...WITH FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MID
SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. IT WILL NOT BE ENTIRELY CLEAR HOWEVER...AS
WE STILL ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS TO MOVE QUICKLY
EAST WITHIN THE FAST ZONAL FLOW FROM THE STORMS MID CONUS.
WITH THE MODELS IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT...ANOTHER FEATURE OF INTEREST
SPARKED SOME CURIOSITY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWED THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A CYCLONE...TROPICAL?...JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHETHER THIS COMES TO FRUITION
OR NOT...IT DID CAUSE ME TO TAKE PAUSE AND LOOK AT THE CALENDAR. T-
MINUS 33 DAYS AND COUNTING TO THE OFFICIAL START OF HURRICANE
SEASON.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
FOR TODAY WE WILL SEE CIRRUS INCREASING THEN MID AND LOWER CLOUDS
ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 18Z...WITH MORE CLOUD COVER BY
EVENING. MODELS SLOWING DOWN SHOWERS...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE LIGHT
RAIN OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL AFFECT BCB/BLF/LWB AND LYH LATE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. LIGHT FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE WITH LIGHT
PRECIP OVERNIGHT MAY HELP DEVELOP FOG AND LOWER CIGS...SO HAVE
HEDGED THE FORECAST THAT WAY AFTER 05Z AT ALL SITES.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THURSDAY CIGS MVFR OR WORSE EXPECTED WITH A BETTER THREAT OF
RAIN. MODELS OVERALL SHOWING BETTER COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY
WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE KY/TN AREA LATER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AND NOT CONFIDENT AT THIS POINT ON CIGS...BUT THIS APPEARS TO
FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS KEEPING THE SHOWERS AT TIMES...WITH SUB VFR
CIGS. SHOULD SEE GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS THOUGH AS WIND
STARTS TO PICK UP BETWEEN HIGH TO THE WEST OF THE MTNS AND LOW OFF
THE COAST. THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRIER AS HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS/WP
NEAR TERM...DS/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...AMS/MBS/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND
312 AM PDT WED APR 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS ALONG THE COAST EARLY WED
MORNING WILL MOVE INLAND TODAY...AND E OF THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH
PRES OFF THE COAST WILL THEN KEEP AN ONSHORE FLOW GOING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND FOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES JUST A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL. EARLY NEXT WEEK ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUG IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE BACK OVER THE PACIFIC NW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR PICTURES EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH STILL OFF THE COAST...WITH A SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW POISED TO MOVE INLAND LATER TODAY ACROSS
WA AND NW OREGON. IR PICTURES SHOWED CLOUDS REMAINING OVER THE
CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS...WHILE ELSEWHERE MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS HAD
CLEARED OUT. MODELS ALL CONTINUE TO INDICATE HOWEVER LOW LEVELS
REMAINING MOIST BELOW 850 MB THIS MORNING...ESP ACROSS THE N WHERE
BEST RESIDUAL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUED. EXPECT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
CLOUDS TODAY. SOME OF THE SCATTERED CONVECTIVE OFFSHORE WERE SHOWING
LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THEM ON RADAR OFF THE N OREGON AND S
WA COAST. WILL NEED TO KEEP A LOW POP IN FOR SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS
THE N AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS.
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL DROP OFF THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE E. SURFACE HIGH PRES OFFSHORE WITH A RATHER FLAT
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL KEEP THE
REGION DRY. AREAS OF MAINLY MORNING CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE N IN THE NW ONSHORE FLOW THU AND FRI.
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER. WHILE A
FEW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH IN NORTHERN
WASHINGTON/SOUTHERN CANADA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE VALLEY...BUT LIKELY CLOSER TO NORMAL AT THE
COAST AS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
INCREASING CLOUDS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH COOLER MARINE AIR AND SOME
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. CULLEN
&&
.AVIATION...THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WERE ACROSS THE REGION LAST
EVENING HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED EARLY THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION
IS IN THE CASCADES...WHICH APPEAR TO REMAIN OBSCURED BASED ON THE
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. WITH HIGH PRES NOSING INTO THE REGION
THIS MORNING AND DEW POINTS SPREADS ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN
MANY SPOTS...EXPECT WE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS FORM
BETWEEN 11Z AND 15Z. THEN EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATER TODAY AND MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY
NORTH OF KSLE.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS MAY FORM AROUND
THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 11Z AND 15Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH LIGHT
NW FLOW TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW BRIEF
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. PYLE
&&
.MARINE...WINDS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST THIS
MORNING AS WEAK HIGH PRES HAS BUILD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT OTHER THAN
TURNING THE WINDS BRIEFLY SOUTHWESTERLY. HIGH PRES RETURNS ON
THU...WITH A SURFACE THERMAL LOW LIKELY BUILDING OVER THE S
OREGON/N CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING ADVISORY GUSTS
THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS.
SEAS ARE CURRENTLY SITTING AROUND 10 TO 11 FT DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY
SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY. EXPECT THE
SEAS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY...DROPPING BELOW 10 FT THIS
MORNING AND EVENTUALLY REACHING 7 TO 8 FT LATE TONIGHT. SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 FT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. PYLE
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS
MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
4 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM NOON
TODAY TO 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
253 AM PDT WED APR 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be breezy and cooler with afternoon temperatures in the
60s over much of the Inland Northwest. Showers today will be
spotty, and there won`t be much chance of any additional
precipitation until Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Look for
temperatures at or above average through early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday night...A south-north oriented narrow band
of rain showers associated with a cold front over extreme Eastern
Washington will track into North Idaho between 4 am and 8 am this
morning. A pocket of mid level instability along the front will
lead to locally moderate rain showers. Much drier air is moving in
behind the front both aloft and at the surface which will limit
post frontal shower activity today. Most of the showers this
afternoon will be over the northern mountains around Colville,
Northport, and Metaline Falls. GFS model even shows CAPE values of
200-400 J/KG in this area which could result in an isolated
thunderstorm. Convection will die down this evening with the loss
of daytime heating.
Cold advection across the area behind the front will lead to much
cooler temperatures compared to yesterday...with highs closer to
seasonal normals. Locally breezy winds are expected today through
the Cascade gaps...as well as the Upper Columbia Basin, Spokane
area, and Palouse with gusts around 30 mph expected. Drier air
mixing down over Central Washington with dew points falling into
the lower to mid 20s will lead to low relative humidities values
in the teens as well.
For overnight tonight into Thursday night a series of system pass
north of the Canadian border with a dry zonal (westerly) flow over
the area. Pressure gradient relax a bit on Thursday with sustained
winds over most of the area ranging from 5-15 mph. JW
Friday through Monday: A rather benign weather pattern is progged
by the medium range models Friday through Monday. Not only is weak
west to east (zonal) pattern forecast over the Pacific Northwest,
but it looks to be the predominant flow regime for the remainder of
the lower 48 states. We raised temperatures a bit for Friday ahead
of a weak cold front. Little more than an increase in westerly
winds is expected with the passage of the dry cold front Friday
evening. With the upper level jet axis well north of the Canadian
border, the models are forecasting very little moisture along and
behind Friday evening`s front. The weekend looks pretty favorable
for outdoor activities with an abundance of sunshine and afternoon
temperatures about five degrees above average.
Tuesday and Wednesday: There is reasonably good agreement between
the GFS, ECMWF, Canadian and the GFS Ensemble Mean that a slow
moving upper low will approach the Washington/British Columbia
coast Tuesday into Wednesday. This pattern should increase our
chance for showers and possibly some afternoon thunderstorms
Tuesday and Wednesday. The increasing on-shore flow will also have
the potential to produce locally breezy winds through the Cascade
Gaps in places like Wenatchee, Chelan, and Vantage. /GKoch
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A cold front will pass through KMWH this evening and
east across the remainder of the area tonight. Showers are
expected with the front for the eastern TAF sites. VFR conditions
are likely at all TAF sites through 06Z Thursday...except for the
possibility of brief MVFR ceilings in heavier shower cores after
06Z tonight at the eastern TAF sites. Gusty southwest winds will
follow the frontal passage. Expect winds to diminish after sunset
Wednesday. /EK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 62 38 63 43 72 43 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 60 36 62 38 71 40 / 40 10 0 0 0 0
Pullman 59 34 62 38 71 41 / 40 0 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 66 40 70 42 78 44 / 30 0 0 0 0 0
Colville 66 37 68 43 74 39 / 20 20 0 10 10 0
Sandpoint 60 33 61 35 68 37 / 50 10 0 10 10 0
Kellogg 57 36 60 38 67 40 / 50 10 0 0 10 0
Moses Lake 69 39 71 42 76 42 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 68 46 72 47 75 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 67 36 70 42 74 42 / 0 0 0 0 10 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
253 AM PDT WED APR 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be breezy and cooler with afternoon temperatures in the
60s over much of the Inland Northwest. Showers today will be
spotty, and there won`t be much chance of any additional
precipitation until Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Look for
temperatures at or above average through early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday night...A south-north oriented narrow band
of rain showers associated with a cold front over extreme Eastern
Washington will track into North Idaho between 4 am and 8 am this
morning. A pocket of mid level instability along the front will
lead to locally moderate rain showers. Much drier air is moving in
behind the front both aloft and at the surface which will limit
post frontal shower activity today. Most of the showers this
afternoon will be over the northern mountains around Colville,
Northport, and Metaline Falls. GFS model even shows CAPE values of
200-400 J/KG in this area which could result in an isolated
thunderstorm. Convection will die down this evening with the loss
of daytime heating.
Cold advection across the area behind the front will lead to much
cooler temperatures compared to yesterday...with highs closer to
seasonal normals. Locally breezy winds are expected today through
the Cascade gaps...as well as the Upper Columbia Basin, Spokane
area, and Palouse with gusts around 30 mph expected. Drier air
mixing down over Central Washington with dew points falling into
the lower to mid 20s will lead to low relative humidities values
in the teens as well.
For overnight tonight into Thursday night a series of system pass
north of the Canadian border with a dry zonal (westerly) flow over
the area. Pressure gradient relax a bit on Thursday with sustained
winds over most of the area ranging from 5-15 mph. JW
Friday through Monday: A rather benign weather pattern is progged
by the medium range models Friday through Monday. Not only is weak
west to east (zonal) pattern forecast over the Pacific Northwest,
but it looks to be the predominant flow regime for the remainder of
the lower 48 states. We raised temperatures a bit for Friday ahead
of a weak cold front. Little more than an increase in westerly
winds is expected with the passage of the dry cold front Friday
evening. With the upper level jet axis well north of the Canadian
border, the models are forecasting very little moisture along and
behind Friday evening`s front. The weekend looks pretty favorable
for outdoor activities with an abundance of sunshine and afternoon
temperatures about five degrees above average.
Tuesday and Wednesday: There is reasonably good agreement between
the GFS, ECMWF, Canadian and the GFS Ensemble Mean that a slow
moving upper low will approach the Washington/British Columbia
coast Tuesday into Wednesday. This pattern should increase our
chance for showers and possibly some afternoon thunderstorms
Tuesday and Wednesday. The increasing on-shore flow will also have
the potential to produce locally breezy winds through the Cascade
Gaps in places like Wenatchee, Chelan, and Vantage. /GKoch
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A cold front will pass through KMWH this evening and
east across the remainder of the area tonight. Showers are
expected with the front for the eastern TAF sites. VFR conditions
are likely at all TAF sites through 06Z Thursday...except for the
possibility of brief MVFR ceilings in heavier shower cores after
06Z tonight at the eastern TAF sites. Gusty southwest winds will
follow the frontal passage. Expect winds to diminish after sunset
Wednesday. /EK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 62 38 63 43 72 43 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 60 36 62 38 71 40 / 40 10 0 0 0 0
Pullman 59 34 62 38 71 41 / 40 0 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 66 40 70 42 78 44 / 30 0 0 0 0 0
Colville 66 37 68 43 74 39 / 20 20 0 10 10 0
Sandpoint 60 33 61 35 68 37 / 50 10 0 10 10 0
Kellogg 57 36 60 38 67 40 / 50 10 0 0 10 0
Moses Lake 69 39 71 42 76 42 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 68 46 72 47 75 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 67 36 70 42 74 42 / 0 0 0 0 10 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1021 PM PDT TUE APR 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching cold front will lead to an increase in winds and
much cooler temperatures through Wednesday, along with a chance
for showers and a possible thunderstorm mainly tonight. A few
showers may linger over the mountains on Wednesday. This will be
followed by a general drying trend into the weekend with
temperatures warming near to or slightly above normal.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
No update needed to the forecast this evening as the current
forecast package is right on track with the timing of the frontal
system that will cross the Inland Northwest tonight. radar is
showing the prefrontal precipitation band just west of Moses Lake
area as of 830 pm. The HRRR has a good handle on this and has the
band of showers moving through eastern WA and into north Idaho
over the next 6 hours. Winds will increase and become gusty behind
the front tonight. There is still the possibility of a few rumbles
of thunder across the northeast tonight as the upper level jet
slides over the area but confidence is low for more than a strike
or two. /Kelch
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A cold front will pass through KMWH this evening and
east across the remainder of the area tonight. Showers are
expected with the front for the eastern TAF sites. VFR conditions
are likely at all TAF sites through 06Z Thursday...except for the
possibility of brief MVFR ceilings in heavier shower cores after
06Z tonight at the eastern TAF sites. Gusty southwest winds will
follow the frontal passage. Expect winds to diminish after sunset
Wednesday. /EK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 47 61 38 63 42 70 / 60 30 10 0 0 10
Coeur d`Alene 42 59 35 62 38 68 / 50 50 10 0 0 10
Pullman 43 57 35 61 38 69 / 30 50 10 0 0 10
Lewiston 49 65 40 68 43 76 / 20 30 10 0 0 10
Colville 45 64 36 69 40 73 / 60 30 20 10 10 10
Sandpoint 40 60 32 62 35 67 / 50 70 10 10 10 10
Kellogg 41 57 34 60 37 67 / 20 60 10 10 0 10
Moses Lake 41 67 38 71 41 75 / 20 0 10 0 0 10
Wenatchee 43 65 43 71 46 75 / 10 0 10 0 0 10
Omak 42 66 37 70 41 73 / 10 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
141 PM PDT WED APR 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND CONTINUE NEAR THE WEST COAST FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN
OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE PACNW
WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING NORTHEAST CA AND NORTHERN NV THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE BASIN AND RANGE TONIGHT. A NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL HELP KEEP
SURFACE WINDS UP A BIT OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
RATHER MILD TONIGHT. HOWEVER MOST AREAS WILL SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY. 12Z MODELS AND THE LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION HRRR STILL SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT GENERALLY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE
AND GERLACH THROUGH THIS EVENING AND WE HAVE MAINTAINED THIS
POSSIBILITY.
THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODIFY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND ALL BUT WASHES
OUT BY FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK IN THE 70S SIERRA AND 80S
LOWER ELEVATIONS. FRIDAY COULD EVEN BE WARMER THAN THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS WITH SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING HIGHS IN THE MID 80S FOR SOME
WESTERN NV VALLEYS INCLUDING RENO. THE FLOW WILL BE LIGHT THU-FRI
WITH INCREASING CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE SIERRA. SO
WE ARE STILL LOOKING FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER MONO
AND MINERAL COUNTIES THURSDAY AND THEN SPREADING NORTHWARD TO
RENO-TAHOE FRIDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY KEEP SHOWERS GOING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE PRESENTED IN MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT`S HARD TO BELIEVE, BUT
WE`RE ALREADY ANALYZING THERMAL TROUGHS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION
AND SUBSEQUENT MOVEMENT. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, SO FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS. AS SUCH, ONLY MODEST CHANGES
WERE MADE TO EXISTING FORECAST.
THERMAL TROUGH PLACEMENT OVER THIS WEEKEND THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE NEVADA INTERIOR. HOWEVER, THERE IS A SLIGHT
THICKNESS RIDGE OVER THE SIERRA AS WELL. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION OVER THE SIERRA AND SIERRA FRONT CONVERGENT
ZONES WITH AN EASTWARD STORM MOTION INTO NEVADA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOONS. THE TWO THICKNESS RIDGES MAY ALSO INDICATE A CHAOTIC
INITIATION BEFORE THE AFTERNOON ZEPHYR KICKS CELLS OFF THE TERRAIN.
THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 ON
SATURDAY SPREADING NORTHWARD EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN REINTRODUCED FOR NORTHERN LASSEN AND WASHOE COUNTY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHERE MODELS SUGGEST ACTIVITY ALONG THE LASSEN
CONVERGENCE ZONE. ADDITIONALLY, HAVE KEPT MENTION OF SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH DROPS OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS
ADDITIONAL LIFT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT MORE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE NIGHT HOURS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A LITTLE EACH DAY AS CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CONTAMINATION INCREASES. GENERALLY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES OVER THE WEEKEND. BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TREND COOLER THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BACK TO
AVERAGE, WITH A TROUGH DROPPING INTO NORTHWESTERN NEVADA. LOCALLY
BREEZY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS TROUGH. WITH DRY SURFACE
CONDITIONS IN PLACE WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE TEMPERATURES COOL INTO
WEDNESDAY. BOYD
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AN HOUR
OR SO OF FOG AT KTRK AROUND 14/15Z. SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZES GUSTING
UP TO 25KTS. A WEAK TROUGH PASSES TONIGHT TURNING FLOW OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
CHANCES OF PULSE THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
MAINLY OCCURRING IN THE SIERRA. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL STARTS IN
MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES AND CREEPS NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA
BY MONDAY. LOCALLY GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF THESE CELLS.
A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE FORECAST BY TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY.
MORE EXPANSIVE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS INSTABILITY SPREADS ACROSS THE SIERRA INTO THE NEVADA
INTERIOR. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY AS THIS TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. BOYD
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
310 PM MDT WED APR 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT WED APR 29 2015
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY HAS SUPPRESSED CONVECTION OVER
THE AREA. HOWEVER...HRRR AND RAP STILL SUGGEST A SMALL WINDOW FOR
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS
AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SEEING SOME CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN SAN JUANS AND
SOUTHERN SANGRES...SO WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW GRADE POPS FOR THESE
AREAS. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS.
ON THURSDAY...A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NRN U.S. ROCKIES
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SEND A PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT INTO
THE PIKES PEAK REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE A ROUND OF ISOLATED
TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
MEANWHILE...WITH THE BOUNDARY STALLING ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO THIS
WILL ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
HIGH BASED...WITH ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING THE PRIMARY
STORM THREATS. -KT
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT WED APR 29 2015
...INCREASING HEAVY RAIN THREAT EARLY NEXT WEEK...
OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. A COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW WHICH
WILL HELP GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FRONTAL PUSH OVER THE PLAINS WILL LEAD TO SLIGHLTY
COOLER WX ON FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S OVER THE PLAINS.
LOW CLOUDS OVER THE PLAINS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING...
AND INCREASED UPSLOPE OVER THE PLAINS FRI AFTERNOON SHOULD ALSO
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVE. A
COUPLE STORMS MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THE BURN SCARS FRI AFTERNOON AND EVE...BUT STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING
AT A DECENT CLIP AND WILL DISSIPATE OFF TO THE EAST FRI EVE.
OVER THE WEEKEND...INCREASED ZONAL FLOW WILL BRING JUNE-LIKE TEMPS
TO THE REGION...WITH MID 80S A POSSIBILITY FOR THE WARM SPOTS
OVER THE PLAINS. EXPECT DIURNAL STORMS AGAIN...FORMING OVER THE
HIGHER TRRN AND SHIFTING TO THE PLAINS IN THE EVENING. WILL SEE
CONVECTION COVERAGE INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A STRONGER
SHORT-WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE PACNW AND THEN THROUGH THE NRN
ROCKIES.
BY MONDAY...A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE BAJA REGION WILL BEGIN MOVING
INTO THE DESERT SW...AND INCREASED SRLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS
WILL BRING INCREASED MOISTURE TO SE CO. SO...HEAVY RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY...AS THE
LOW MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY
RAIN BUT INCREASING SHEAR COULD ALSO BRING A FEW STRONG TO SVR
STORMS AS THE LOW GETS CLOSER. AFTER TUE...MODELS DIVERGE A BIT
ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOW EJECTS TO OUR NORTH AND EAST...AND ALSO THE
IMPACT OF A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PACNW.
SO...UNCERTAINTY IS PRETTY HIGH BEYOND TUE...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE
UNSETTLED THROUGH AT LEAST A GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT WED APR 29 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS
TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH SPEEDS UNDER 10
KTS. WINDS ON THURSDAY WILL START OUT NORTHERLY AT KCOS...THEN
SWING AROUND FROM THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK
FRONT LURKING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINAL. THIS WILL PROVIDE
A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON.
THESE WILL BE HIGH BASED AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCAL ERRATIC
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 KTS. WINDS WILL SWITCH OUT OF THE NORTH FOR
BOTH KCOS AND KPUB THURSDAY EVENING AS A STRONGER PUSH OF COOLER
AIR DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH. KALS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THUNDERSTORMS LESS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL.
-KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
119 PM EDT WED APR 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT RESIDES OVER THE REGION TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO A
POSITION OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST ON THURSDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE
TO TREK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER WONDERFUL SPRING DAY IN THE PHILLY AREA UNDER A WEAK
RIDGE ALOFT BETWEEN SLOWLY EASTWARD AND SEAWARD DEPARTING WESTERN
ATLANTIC CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND SOUTHWARD GROWING GREAT LAKES
UPPER LOW. AT THE SFC, WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER NNJ THIS
AFTERNOON.
A SUNNY START THEN SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON
PROBABLY AOA 6000 FT.
NW WIND GUSTY AROUND 15-20 MPH DURING MID LATE MORNING THEN
SETTLES DOWN A BIT MID AFTERNOON. COASTAL COOLING SEA BREEZES
EXPECTED BUT POSSIBLY NOT WIDESPREAD (00Z/30 ECMWF MUCH MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN THE 00Z/06Z NCEP MODELS). FOLLOWED 09Z HRRR ON
GUSTS THIS MORNING.
THERE IS A MODELED SFC LOW OVER NNJ THAT MAY ASSIST SEA BREEZES
NNJ.
MAX TEMPS ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WERE
INCREASED SLIGHTLY WITH THE 9:30 AM UPDATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AS A SHARP RISE WITH TEMPERATURES OCCURRED THIS MORNING. NO MAJOR
CHANGES WITH 12:30 PM UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. A COMBINATION OF LEFTOVER STRATOCU THIS
EVENING AND CIRRUS FROM THE SOMEWHAT DEVELOPING SE COAST LOW. THE
CIRRUS MOSTLY THIN, OVERSPREADS LATER AT NIGHT FROM SSW TO NNE.
INVERSION AT 7000 FT MAY TRAP CLOUDS AT THAT LEVEL MOST OF THE
NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CIG TONIGHT.
LOWS 3 OR MORE DEGREES MILDER THAN THE VALUES OF THIS WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IF CLOUDS 7000 FT.
LIGHT W-SW WIND PROBABLY TURNS LIGHT NE MOST AREAS BY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THU STARTS OUT DRY, WITH LOW PRES OFF THE SERN CONUS CST. THIS
LOW WILL MOVE NEWD THRU FRI, AS THE UPR LOW, NR THE OH VLY SWINGS
SEWD. PRECIP WILL DEVELOP NW OF THE SFC LOW AND PRBLY WITH THE UPR
LOW BUT EXACTLY WHERE REMAINS THE BIG QUESTION. IT STILL APPEARS
THE BEST CHCS OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER SRN AND ERN AREA, BUT THIS
WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW. ITS PSBL MOST LOCATIONS MAY
REMAIN DRY THRU THE DAY ON FRI, ESPECIALLY UP NORTH.
THE AXIS OF THE UPR TROF PASSES OFF THE CST FRI EVE AND THIS SHUD
FURTHER STEER THE LOW OUT TO SEA. HIGH PRES WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN
FROM THE W. BOTH MDLS IMPLY SOME LIGHT PRECIP IN NW FLOW ON SAT.
ITS PSBL, BUT IT WOULD BE LOW POPS.
BEYOND SAT, THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR MON AND MOVES OFF
THE CST MON NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND CMC HAVE DRY WX DURG THIS TIME
WITH WARM TEMPS AS SWLY FLOW INCREASES. THE GFS, ON THE OTHER HAND
SEEMS TO BE INEXPLICABLY WET AS WE GO MON SUN INTO MON, ESPECIALLY
UNDER HIGH PRES. THEREFORE, AM IGNORING ITS SOLN FOR NOW.
BY MON NIGHT INTO TUE, LOW PRES IN CANADA WILL BRING A CDFNT ACRS
THE NRN REACHES OF THE AREA. SOME PRECIP IS PSBL AND HAVE JUST
GONE WITH SOME LOW POPS. ONCE AGAIN, WHILE THE GFS HAS THE FRONT,
SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF, IT HAS QUITE A BIT MORE PRECIP AND WILL KEEP
THE DRIER TREND.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRI, WHERE THE REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY
THE UPR LOW AND PSBLY THE SFC OFF THE CST, TEMPS WILL BE AOA NRML
THRU THE EXTENDD PD.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CLEAR TO START THEN SCT SC DURING THE AFTN
AOA 6000 FT. NW WIND GUST UNDER 20KT 13Z-18Z THEN WIND
DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON. COASTAL SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE WE WILL SEE WINDS SHIFT
DUE TO SEABREEZE AT ILG AND ACY.
TONIGHT... VFR, WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST UNDER 10 KNOTS BY
MORNING. SCATTERED AND BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.
THURSDAY... CLOUDS BECOMING BROKEN AND LOWERING SOME TO AROUND
5,000 FT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOWERING TO MVFR
CEILINGS LATE IN THE DAY, LOW CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CEILINGS. ANY
SHOWER CHANCE TO SPOTTY FOR TAF MENTION ATTM.
OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT AND FRI...CEILINGS COULD LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR
ESPECIALLY ACRS THE S AND E AND WOULD MAINLY EFFECT KMIV/KACY
WHERE RAIN IS LIKELY. ITS PSBL THAT KABE/KRDG REMAIN VFR. HOWEVER,
EVEN WHERE THE IS NO RAIN, THERE COULD BE SOME PDS OF LWR CIGS.
BREEZY EASTERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY WIND PSBL LATER THU INTO FRI.
CONFIDENCE VERY LOW.
SAT AND SUN...MOSTLY VFR AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN AFTER SAT AM. .
MDT CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT.
NW WIND MAY GUST 15 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THIS MORNING THEN SOUTHERLY
SEA AND BAY BREEZES DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WIND
TONIGHT BECOMES A LIGHT NORTHEAST DRIFT BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
WAVE HEIGHTS AT OR BELOW 2 FT.
OUTLOOK...
THU MORNING...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
THU LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI...SCA CONDS EXPECTED AS WINDS GUST
AOA 30 KT AND SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS BUILD NEAR 7 FT.
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS COULD LINGER THROUGH
SAT MRNG, BUT WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE DECREASING.
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...NO MARINE FLAGS ANTICIPATED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 25 TO 35
PERCENT RANGE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WIND SPEEDS AND
GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 15 MPH, LIMITING THE CONCERN FOR
WILDFIRE SPREAD AT THAT TIME.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH THE FULL MOON ON SATURDAY, ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES BY FRIDAY
WILL ALREADY BE NEAR MEAN HIGHER HIGH WATER. THEREFORE, DEPENDING
ON HOW CLOSE THE COASTAL LOW TRACKS TO OUR REGION, THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THIS IS VERY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW,
AND AT THIS POINT, THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING FURTHER EAST WITH THE
TRACK, CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. THE FURTHER EAST THE TRACK IS, THE
LESS OF AN IMPACT FOR OUR REGION.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAINES
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/NIERENBERG
MARINE...DRAG/NIERENBERG
FIRE WEATHER...DRAG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NIERENBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
252 PM EDT WED APR 29 2015
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE STILL SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS ACROSS
VIRTUALLY ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. POCKETS OF CLEARING HAVE SHOWN
BRIEFLY ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA WHERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED. THE DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE THE RESULT OF CONTINUING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE KEYS DUE TO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. THE COLD
FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING
WITH A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF IT...BUT THE THREAT IS LOOKING LESS
LIKELY. THE LATEST HRRR WHICH HAS INITIALIZED WELL THROUGH THE
MORNING KEEPS THE AREA NEARLY RAIN FREE LATER THIS EVENING.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD THEN CLEAR THE AREA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY TAKING VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION
WITH IT. BY FRIDAY MORNING...ANOTHER COLD BUT DRY FRONT WILL
SURGE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE NORTH AS AN H5 TROUGH IS STILL
EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTH AND INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL BRING A
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. MOST MODEL BLENDS ARE DEPICTING DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
50S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE DRY FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO QUICKLY PUSH
TO THE EAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
MORE EASTERLY FLOW REGIME TO PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS MODELS
DEPICT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
AND PUSHING TO THE NORTHEAST AND TOWARD THE BAHAMAS. THIS WILL
RETURN DECENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
CLOUDS ARE STILL DRIFTING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. VCSH IS INCLUDED FOR ALL AIRPORTS
UNTIL 00Z APR 30. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM 220 TO 280 AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE CLOUD COVER IS NOT
ALLOWING FOR SURFACE HEATING. WITHOUT SURFACE HEATING AND THE
LOW LEVEL COOLING FROM THE RAINS EARLIER, THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
VERY LIKELY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, WE WILL AMEND THE TAFS AS
NEEDED.
&&
.MARINE...
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE ATLANTIC WATERS OF BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA...WILL HOLD OFF
FOR NOW AND COVER WITH SCEC. WINDS WILL THEN TURN MORE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 70 85 65 86 / 10 10 0 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 73 86 68 88 / 20 20 0 10
MIAMI 72 85 66 87 / 20 20 0 10
NAPLES 73 82 68 83 / 20 10 0 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...71/JE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
243 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEAST MO. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD INTO EAST
CENTRAL INDIANA BY NOON THU AND TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER SYSTEM
TO AFFECT CENTRAL/SE IL NEXT 24 HOURS ESPECIALLY EASTERN IL.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH BASED CUMULUS CLOUDS 7-9K FT WEST OF
HIGHWAY 51 WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER EASTERN IL REST OF
TODAY. AS NEXT SHORT WAVE DROPS SOUTHWARD, SHORT RANGE MODELS LIKE
HRRR AND RAP DEVELOP ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL IL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND SHIFT IT SE LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. CONTINUE 20-30% CHANCES OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING
(ISOLATED THUNDER NORTH OF I- 72 UNTIL SUNSET) AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS EAST OF I-55 OVERNIGHT. LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIGHT (LESS THAN A TENTH INCH) IF THEY HAPPEN.
LOWS OVERNIGHT RANGE FROM LOWER 40S FROM LINCOLN NORTH TO THE
UPPER 40S SE OF I-70. NNE WINDS OF 5-10 MPH TONIGHT WITH NO FOG
EXPECTED TONIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH, EAST OF THE AREA,
WHICH WILL KEEP THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE CWA THURSDAY,
KEEPING US WITH NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE EAST FOR THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
SOUTH. ONCE THAT PASSES THURSDAY EVENING DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
BEGINNING FRIDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS RIDGE WILL DROP
SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THERE FOR SATURDAY.
HOWEVER, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THE
WEEKEND. A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. ANY PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WAVES SHOULD REMAIN
WEST OF THE AREA AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM AROUND NORMAL FOR THURSDAY
TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO THE SOUTHEAST US BY SATURDAY
NIGHT, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO BEGIN TO TRANSITION
TO A MORE ZONAL PATTER FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN TO THE CWA, BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES. IN ADDITION, ANY PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH
ADDITIONAL WEAK MID LEVEL WAVES WILL HOLD TOGETHER LONGER AND BE
ABLE TO REACH INTO THE CWA. SO WILL KEEP THE POPS IN THE FORECAST
BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. WITH THE FLOW BECOMING ZONAL ANY SURFACE FRONT WILL
BECOME SOMEWHAT STATIONARY OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE CWA THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE, IT LOOKS LIKE
LIKELY POPS IS WARRANTED FOR THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA, WITH
CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTH, AND EITHER NO POPS OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THE SOUTHEAST.
TEMPS WILL BECOME WARMER, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA, WHICH SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH PART OF
THE WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS PATTERN.
BELIEVE GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE ON THE WARM SIDE FOR DAYTIME HIGHS,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE THERE WILL BE PCPN AND CLOUDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL IL
AIRPORTS NEXT 24 HOURS THROUGH 18Z/1 PM THU. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUDS FROM 5-10K FT WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THIS EVENING DUE TO UPPER LEVEL TROF FROM EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHEAST MO. CONTINUED VCSH SHOWERS LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THIS TROF AND ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE
MAINLY NORTH OF PIA FROM 21Z-01Z. VFR CLOUDS TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT
AND LINGER LONGEST AT CMI. CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING
SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO EAST CENTRAL INDIANA BY
18Z THU WILL KEEP MORE VFR CLOUDS 5-10K FT OVER EASTERN IL THU.
NNE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON TO DIMINISH TO 4-8 KTS
TONIGHT AND PICK BACK UP TO 9-14 KTS BY 15Z/10 AM THU AS DIURNAL
CYCLE INCREASES WINDS.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
154 PM EDT WED APR 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED APR 29 2015
TEMPERATURES HAVE RECOVERED WELL THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CLOUDS
OVER SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY DISSIPATED. ADDITIONAL CU IS DEVELOPING
OVER THE CWA SO HAVE KEPT THE INCREASING SKY COVER TREND IN THE
FORECAST. ALIGNED T AND TD GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS. SENT
UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1055 AM EDT WED APR 29 2015
CLOUD COVER SEEMS TO BE CONSTRAINED TO THE SOUTHERN AND FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES AS THE SFC LOW PASSES TO OUR SOUTH...SO HAVE
BUMPED TEMPS DOWN IN THOSE AREAS. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO
BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CLOUD COVER. SUSPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO TODAYS FORECAST
PERIOD. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT WED APR 29 2015
TOUCHED UP THE GRIDS A BIT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS PER THE
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT WED APR 29 2015
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF THE NATION. THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS ARE MAKING ONLY SLOW PROGRESS NORTH AND INTO TENNESSEE WHILE
THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 KEEP IT OUT OF KENTUCKY ENTIRELY.
HOWEVER...SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE MANAGED TO PUSH INTO
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE. THESE CLOUDS...AND A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN MOISTURE...ARE HELPING TO KEEP THE TEMPERATURES THERE...EVEN IN
MOST OF THE VALLEYS...MORE UNIFORM FROM 45 TO 50 DEGREES.
MEANWHILE...TO THE NORTH...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE
ALLOWED A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT TO DEVELOP WITH READINGS
VARYING FROM THE LOWER 50S ABOVE THE INVERSION TO THE LOWER 40S IN
THE SHELTERED SPOTS BELOW IT. DEWPOINTS...IN GENERAL...VARY ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE FAR SOUTH TO THE MID 30S IN THE
NORTH. WINDS THROUGHOUT EAST KENTUCKY ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IF
NOT OUTRIGHT CALM.
THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE SETTLING ON A SOLUTION AT MID LEVELS FOR
THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL AGREE WITH A
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OPENING UP AS IT MOVES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
TODAY. IT IS THEN JOINED BY A TRAILING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
DROPPING MAINLY SOUTH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THESE WAVES
WILL MAINTAIN A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE NATION
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE WILL THEN DESCEND
THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...SHARPENING UP AS IT
MOVES INTO KENTUCKY BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. THIS CLOSED...BUT FAIRLY
QUICK MOVING...LOW WILL PUNCH THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH PLENTY OF MID LEVEL ENERGY AND A CORE
OF COLDER 500 MB TEMPS. THE GFS STILL REMAINS THE STRONGEST MODEL
WITH THIS AND ALSO A BIT SLOWER. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE OTHERS
ARE COMING AROUND TO THIS IDEA...THOUGH...WITH THE NAM
REPRESENTING A GOOD COMPROMISE. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE GONE WITH A
MAINLY NAM12 SOLUTION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...ALONG WITH THE
WELL ALIGNED HRRR FOR TODAY/S PORTION.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY AS THE
SYSTEM PASSES HARMLESSLY TO THE SOUTH...ROBBING US OF ANOTHER
CHANCE TO GET SOME RAINFALL THAT WOULD GO TOWARD BREAKING THE
RECORD FOR THE MONTH HERE AT JKL. WITH LESS PCPN AND CLOUDS
ANTICIPATED TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
EXPECTED 24 HOURS AGO. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE BUMPED THEM UP INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 60S MOST PLACES. AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AT MID
LEVELS TONIGHT WILL BRING IN A DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WILL
LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT SERVE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER
UNIFORM. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY DAWN IN THE NORTHWEST PARTS
OF THE AREA AS THE SFC REFLECTION OF THAT MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES
INTO KENTUCKY. LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON
THURSDAY WITH CLIMBING CAPE AND FALLING LIS AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
OVERHEAD. AS A RESULT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THAT
MORNING AND A BETTER BET BY AFTERNOON DUE TO BETTER INSULATION AND
COLD MID LEVELS. HAVE UPGRADED THE THUNDER CHANCES TO SCATTERED
FROM SLIGHT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND AM ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT
GRAUPEL FROM ANY STRONGER SHOWER OF STORM SO WILL ADD A MENTION TO
THE FORTHCOMING HWO. THE CLOUDS AND CONVECTION WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE THURSDAY DESPITE THE THUNDER CHANCES.
FOR TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS/WINDS HAVE STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST AND THE SUPERBLEND
AFTER THAT. DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURES
BASED ON TERRAIN THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
SIMILAR TO LOWER GUIDANCE TODAY/TONIGHT AND A BIT HIGHER ON
THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT WED APR 29 2015
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT WET AND RAINY AS A WEATHER SYSTEM
PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. RUN OF THE MILL
RAIN SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE AREA AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OHIO VALLEY. COOLER AIR AND LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL
EFFECTIVELY KILL ANY CHANCES FOR THUNDER. THE RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT
IN NATURE AND WILL NOT CAUSE ANY HYDRO ISSUES. AFTER LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY AND WARM AS A LARGE AND RATHER
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
THE LONG TERM MODELS DO TRY TO PRODUCE A BIT OF SPOTTY PRECIPITATION
FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM SATURDAY
ONWARD...BUT CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE IN THE
MODELS...AND NO APPRECIABLE SIGNAL FOR PRECIP IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND TIME HEIGHTS...DECIDED TO KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE PICTURE
UNTIL THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD...WHEN THE GFS MODEL ATTEMPTS TO
SAG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD OUT OF INDIANA...OHIO...AND
ILLINOIS.
TEMPERATURES THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION AND WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTED WEATHER SYSTEM.
FROM SUNDAY ONWARD...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE MARKEDLY WARMER AS THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION...BRINGING LIGHT
WINDS AND AMPLE SUNSHINE TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. HIGHS ON
EACH OF THESE DAYS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH MAX READINGS
ON MONDAY TUESDAY POSSIBLE TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S AROUND THE
AREA. A FEW LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY MAY EVEN TOP 80 DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT WED APR 29 2015
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST 12 TO 18
HOURS OF THE PERIOD. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCT TO BKN CU NEAR 5 TO 6KFT
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND WITH MOISTURE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AROUND THAT LEVEL...A VFR CIG NEAR 5 TO 6KFT
SHOULD DEVELOP BY 0Z TO 6Z PERIOD. AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES...SOME SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM 9Z ON...STARTING
IN THE NORTH. ENOUGH INSTABILITY FROM COOLING ALOFT AND SOME
SURFACE HEATING MAY BE IN PLACE PRIOR TO THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR
ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED TSRA. WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10 KT OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY OF VARIABLE DIRECTION WHEN NOT
OUT OF THE NORTH.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
100 PM EDT WED APR 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE FRIDAY
SETTING THE STAGE FOR A WONDERFUL WEEKEND OF WEATHER. THE NICE
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM WEDNESDAY...RADAR SHOWS QUITE AN IMPRESSIVE BATCH OF
RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS EXTENDING ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL
SOUTH CAROLINA...MOVING NE JUST OVER 30 MPH. LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION
TAKES THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY JUST NORTH OF FLORENCE...SOAKING
DARLINGTON AND BENNETTSVILLE OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS...WITH
INTERMITTENT SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO TRAIL SOUTH OF THE MAIN
CORE ACROSS THE BULK OF NE SOUTH CAROLINA. SHOWERS SHOULD FINALLY
MAKE IT DOWN TO COASTAL NC BY LATE AFTERNOON...PERHAPS BEGINNING
AROUND 4-5 PM.
HRRR AND RUC MODELING OF THIS EVENT HAS BEEN VERY POOR TO SAY THE
LEAST. THIS EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE IS BASED SOLELY ON EXTRAPOLATION
OF SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS. VISIBLE SATELLITE STILL SHOWS
CONSIDERABLE BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST AHEAD OF THE INCOMING SHOWERS. I
HAVE RAISED FORECAST HIGHS BY ANOTHER DEGREE IN SPOTS WITH 68-69
DEGREES NOW FORECAST ACROSS LUMBERTON AND ELIZABETHTOWN. FALLING
TEMPERATURES DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON ARE BEING INDICATED WHERE THE
MOST CONCENTRATED RAIN SHOULD OCCUR. DISCUSSION FROM 1030 AM
FOLLOWS...
UNFORTUNATELY MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT
6-9 HOURS. ALL MODELS...EVEN THE LATEST RUNS OF THE RUC & HRRR...ARE
HAVING SERIOUS ISSUES SEEING THE WIDE GAP BETWEEN THIS MORNING`S
LEAD BATCH OF RAIN AND THE SECOND BATCH OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS GEORGIA.
FIRST OF ALL...THE LEAD BATCH OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS NE SOUTH
CAROLINA THIS MORNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT
ALONG THE 305K-315K THETA SURFACES. IF YOU LOOK THIS UP ON A
FORECAST SKEW-T YOU`LL SEE THIS IS ALL 9000+ FEET ABOVE GROUND WITH
DRIER AIR BELOW THE CLOUD DECK. RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN RECORDED AS
HIGH AS .08 IN/HR AT GEORGETOWN SC...WITH ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS UP AT
FLORENCE. BEHIND THIS BATCH OF RAIN...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS BREAKS
IN THE OVERCAST ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND PIEDMONT REGION OF SOUTH
CAROLINA. AS THIS ADVECTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RESPOND QUICKLY THIS TO PERIOD OF SUNSHINE. I HAVE RAISED
FORECAST HIGHS BY 5 DEGREES FROM DARLINGTON AND BENNETTSVILLE ACROSS
LUMBERTON AND ELIZABETHTOWN...WITH LESSER INCREASES ELSEWHERE.
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WILL DAMPEN OUT
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS LATER TODAY. HOWEVER THERE
SHOULD STILL BE A FAIRLY ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE...REACHING INTERSTATE 95 AS EARLY AS NOON-1 PM...AND
WORKING ITS WAY DOWN TO THE NC/SC BEACHES BETWEEN 2-4 PM. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY SLIGHT ELEVATED INSTABILITY BASED AROUND
8000-9000 FEET UP...WHICH SHOULD ADD A MINOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENT TO
THE BATCH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL. THIS SHOULD BRING A
WIDESPREAD 0.1 TO 0.2 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH SPOTTIER HEAVIER AMOUNTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN
JUST IF AND WHEN HIGHER POPS WILL BE REQUIRED THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD.
INITIALLY LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OFF THE CAPE FEAR COAST WITH
SHEARED VORTICITY MOVING ACROSS AT THE MID LEVELS. A BAND OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL IS DEPICTED BY THE GFS NEAR THE COAST AND IS REFLECTED IN
THE MOS NUMBERS. I HAVE INCREASED POPS THROUGH 1800 UTC THURSDAY
MOSTLY ALONG THE COAST. THE REMAINDER OF THE POPS WILL BE DICTATED
BY THE MID LEVEL LOW SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY.
I HAVE LOWER VALUES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH STILL NOT REMOVING
ENTIRELY INCREASING SOMEWHAT FOR THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY. OVERALL
THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE THE LAST TIMEFRAME FOR DECENT RAINFALL AS THE
REMAINDER OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING
FRIDAY ESPECIALLY SOUTH AS THE SYSTEM FINALLY PULLS AWAY.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST REQUIRED ONLY MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS TO GRAVITATE
MORE TOWARD THE LATEST GFS/MAV NUMBERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ALL BUT UNCHANGED WITH
THE MORNING UPDATE AS A MOSTLY ZONAL AND RELATIVELY WEAK MID
LEVEL PATTERN DEVELOPS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO WELL OFFSHORE...ASSUMING THE BERMUDA
POSITION THAT WE WILL BE SEEING MUCH MORE OF IN THE COMING MONTHS.
DONT SEE ANY POPS IN THE FORECAST. ONE INTERESTING NOTE IS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL OR MORE LIKE A SUBTROPICAL FEATURE
CONSIDERING WATER TEMPERATURES NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEXT
WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THIS FEATURE BUT VERY PREMATURE
TO DIAGNOSE AT THIS POINT. STILL SOMETHING TO WATCH. TEMPERATURE
TRENDS REMAIN IN PLACE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE INITIALLY WARMING TO
ABOVE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR LATER
TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS LOW
CLOUDS...AREAS OF FOG...AND PERIODS OF RAIN MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA.
VFR PREVAILS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AS SEEN FROM LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...EXPECT RAINFALL TO
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO
MVFR/IFR AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG
ADVECT ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT WINDS TO BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AT ALL
SITES THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE
AREA...INCREASING TO AOB 10 KTS...AND POTENTIALLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER
ALONG THE COAST. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...RAIN WILL TAPER OFF BUT
ANTICIPATE A RETURN OF -RA/SHRA THURSDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A CONTINUING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM WEDNESDAY...WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOYS...PIERS...AND
COASTAL AIRPORTS INDICATE A GENERALLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WITH
SPEEDS BELOW 10 KNOTS. LOW PRESSURE A LITTLE OVER 100 MILES OFF THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST IS BECOMING THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE AND
SHOULD HELP INCREASE WIND SPEEDS TO 10-15 KT BY THIS EVENING. THE
MORNING BATCH OF RAIN HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED WITH JUST SOME
SPRINKLES REMAINING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. RADAR SHOWS ANOTHER
BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA THAT SHOULD
REACH THE BEACHES BETWEEN 3-6 PM. NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO SEA
HEIGHT FORECASTS. DISCUSSION FROM 1030 AM FOLLOWS...
THE SUITE OF COMPUTER MODELS AVAILABLE TO US IS STRUGGLING GREATLY
WITH CURRENT WIND DIRECTIONS. OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE AREA SHOW
VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS WITH SPEEDS 6 KNOTS OR LESS AT THE BEACHES.
FARTHER OFFSHORE WHERE THE SYNOPTIC PRESSURE GRADIENT WOULD SUGGEST
A NORTHEAST WIND WE ARE SEEING VARIABILITY HERE AS WELL DUE TO
SHOWERS 20+ MILES OFFSHORE PRODUCING SOME OUTFLOW WIND EFFECTS. AS
THE WEAK LOW OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST BECOMES A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED AND MOVES CLOSER THIS AFTERNOON WE ANTICIPATE EASTERLY
WINDS TO BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED. THERE MAY STILL BE REMAINING
VARIABILITY HOWEVER DUE TO ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS FROM THE WEST.
I HAVE INCREASED FORECAST SEA HEIGHTS BY 1 FOOT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY. CURRENT WAVE OBSERVATIONS FROM LOCAL BUOYS
INDICATE 2 FEET NEARSHORE AND 3 FEET OUT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS
BUOY...ABOUT 1 FOOT HIGHER THEN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ABOUT 150 MILES OFF THE
CAPE FEAR COAST THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
DURING THE DAY. WINDS...INITIALLY FROM THE NORTH WILL TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST BY MIDDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 15-20 KNOTS. WIND SPEEDS
WILL DIMINISH TO A RANGE OF 10-15 KNOTS THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
IN THIS RANGE AND DIRECTION FOR MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY. A SECONDARY
SURGE WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY KICKING WINDS BACK UP TO 15-20 KNOTS
DIMINISHING ONCE AGAIN BY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THIS PATTERN THE
HIGHER SEAS WILL RELEGATED TO THE OUTER WATERS. HEIGHTS WILL MOSTLY
BE 2-4 FEET BUT GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A FEW SIX FOOTERS ACROSS THE NC
WATERS LATE FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...NICE CONDITIONS FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A LITTLE BREEZY TO START WITH WINDS FROM
THE NORTHWEST AT 10-15 KNOTS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. SHOULD SEE TEN KNOTS OR
LESS BY SUNDAY MORNING. A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS LATER SUNDAY WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ONCE AGAIN...TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL
BE 1-3 FEET THROUGHOUT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
552 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO EXPAND THE
ISOLATED SHOWER MENTION ACROSS THE WEST LATE TONIGHT GIVEN TRENDS
IN THE 19-21 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS WHICH PROPAGATE SHOWERS ALONG
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MONTANA BORDER AROUND 10 UTC.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015
CURRENTLY...SUNNY SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES INTO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S STATEWIDE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE
LEE OF THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
TONIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...BUT SHOULD SEE INCREASING
CLOUDS WEST TOWARD MORNING AS THE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES
INTO MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS INCREASING MID
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE WEST. A SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES IS SITUATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
INCREASING 850MB WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH THERMAL RIDGING
MOVING INTO THE AREA SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS MILD WITH READINGS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S.
THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN MONTANA
AROUND MIDDAY AND INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY EARLY EVENING. THIS
WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT TO NEAR THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR BY
MIDDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BUMP TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S. THE DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD ALLOW DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE
LOW TO MID 30S SOUTH CENTRAL...AND INTO THE LOWER 30S OVER THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. AS WE MIX OUT IN THE AFTERNOON...WE SEE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
30 MPH OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...TAPERING SLIGHTLY AS YOU GO
WEST TO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THIS PRODUCE AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY...TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. WILL BE
ISSUING A RED FLAG WARNING DUE TO THE LOW HUMIDITIES AND STRONG
WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN COOLER
AIR...RAISING HUMIDITIES AND BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED BUT DID MENTION AN ISOLATE THUNDERSTORM
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...LOCATED OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...CONTINUES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL PERSIST IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS
OF THE STATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER...THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS PROVIDE
AGREEMENT ON ZONAL FLOW BECOMING DOMINANT THE THROUGH PERIOD.
SEVERAL EMBEDDED UNPREDICTABLE SHORTWAVES ARE PROJECTED WITHIN THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW...CREATING FREQUENT CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY CONFINED TO
SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE STATE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 550 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015
A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA THIS EVENING WILL MOVE ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS
GUSTING NEAR 30 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CHANGE TO THE WEST
BEHIND THE FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR NDZ023-025-
036-037-046>048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
511 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ALSO INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MENTION OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST AR. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
DETECTED WITH WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY.
UPDATE... /ISSUED 456 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015/
SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ARE
MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NORTHEAST AR. LIGHT RAIN WAS
REPORTED AT CORNING AR WHILE WALNUT RIDGE AR REPORTED A WIND GUST
TO NEAR 40 MPH WITH ONE OF THE SHOWERS. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS
THESE SHOWERS CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
NORTHEAST AR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WHILE THE HRRR DOES MOVE
THEM INTO MEMPHIS...THE RAP DISSIPATES THE SHOWERS WITH SUNSET
BEFORE THEY REACH MEMPHIS. WILL MONITOR THIS...BUT FOR NOW ONLY
INCLUDED THE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST AR.
JCL
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015/
CURRENTLY AS OF 3PM... TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 70S THROUGHOUT THE
MIDSOUTH FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE SATURDAY BUT STILL ARE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW LATE APRIL NORMALS. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
THROUGHOUT THE CWA BUT THAT WILL SOON CHANGE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE REVOLVING AROUND A CLOSED LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION INCREASING CLOUDINESS MAINLY IN
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE MIDSOUTH. KNQA RADAR IS
ALREADY DEPICTING LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTHEASTERN
CWA... HOWEVER IT IS LIKELY THAT THIS PRECIPITATION IS NOT
REACHING THE GROUND DUE TO REALLY DRY SURFACE AIR IN PLACE.
SHORT TERM...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION OVER NIGHT. MODELS AGREE ON VERY LITTLE QPF
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AND THE MAJORITY OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL STAY DRY.
HOWEVER.. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR DEPICTS SOME VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTH
WEST MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING.
ON A BROADER SCALE... AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WHILE UPPER RIDGING TAKES PLACE NEAR THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREATS LAKES
WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION JUST EAST OF
THE MIDSOUTH ON THURSDAY. THE ONLY EFFECT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON
OUR CWA IS SLIGHTLY RAISED POPS FOR THE COUNTIES IN WEST
TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER... HOWEVER MOST OF THE PRECIP
WILL STAY FAR EAST OF OUR CWA. ABNORMALLY DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
A BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE MIDSOUTH
THURSDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
PARKED OVER THE MIDSOUTH.
LONG TERM...
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY THE WEEKEND
AND ABOVE AVERAGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS
EAST AND FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. MODELS AGREE ON A MORE DYNAMIC WEATHER
PATTERN SETTING UP BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP TROF APPROACHES THE
REGION.
JPM3
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. NOT MUCH CLOUD COVER OR PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST
WINDS AVERAGING BETWEEN 8-12 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS WILL BECOME
LIGHT TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO BETWEEN 8-12KTS AFTER 30/15Z.
04
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
456 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015
.UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ARE
MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NORTHEAST AR. LIGHT RAIN WAS
REPORTED AT CORNING AR WHILE WALNUT RIDGE AR REPORTED A WIND GUST
TO NEAR 40 MPH WITH ONE OF THE SHOWERS. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS
THESE SHOWERS CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
NORTHEAST AR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WHILE THE HRRR DOES MOVE
THEM INTO MEMPHIS...THE RAP DISSIPATES THE SHOWERS WITH SUNSET
BEFORE THEY REACH MEMPHIS. WILL MONITOR THIS...BUT FOR NOW ONLY
INCLUDED THE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST AR.
JCL
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015/
CURRENTLY AS OF 3PM... TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 70S THROUGHOUT THE
MIDSOUTH FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE SATURDAY BUT STILL ARE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW LATE APRIL NORMALS. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
THROUGHOUT THE CWA BUT THAT WILL SOON CHANGE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE REVOLVING AROUND A CLOSED LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION INCREASING CLOUDINESS MAINLY IN
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE MIDSOUTH. KNQA RADAR IS
ALREADY DEPICTING LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTHEASTERN
CWA... HOWEVER IT IS LIKELY THAT THIS PRECIPITATION IS NOT
REACHING THE GROUND DUE TO REALLY DRY SURFACE AIR IN PLACE.
SHORT TERM...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION OVER NIGHT. MODELS AGREE ON VERY LITTLE QPF
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AND THE MAJORITY OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL STAY DRY.
HOWEVER.. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR DEPICTS SOME VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTH
WEST MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING.
ON A BROADER SCALE... AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WHILE UPPER RIDGING TAKES PLACE NEAR THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREATS LAKES
WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION JUST EAST OF
THE MIDSOUTH ON THURSDAY. THE ONLY EFFECT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON
OUR CWA IS SLIGHTLY RAISED POPS FOR THE COUNTIES IN WEST
TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER... HOWEVER MOST OF THE PRECIP
WILL STAY FAR EAST OF OUR CWA. ABNORMALLY DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
A BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE MIDSOUTH
THURSDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
PARKED OVER THE MIDSOUTH.
LONG TERM...
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY THE WEEKEND
AND ABOVE AVERAGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS
EAST AND FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. MODELS AGREE ON A MORE DYNAMIC WEATHER
PATTERN SETTING UP BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP TROF APPROACHES THE
REGION.
JPM3
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. NOT MUCH CLOUD COVER OR PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST
WINDS AVERAGING BETWEEN 8-12 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS WILL BECOME
LIGHT TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO BETWEEN 8-12KTS AFTER 30/15Z.
04
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
332 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY AS OF 3PM... TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 70S THROUGHOUT THE
MIDSOUTH FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE SATURDAY BUT STILL ARE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW LATE APRIL NORMALS. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
THROUGHOUT THE CWA BUT THAT WILL SOON CHANGE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE REVOLVING AROUND A CLOSED LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION INCREASING CLOUDINESS MAINLY IN
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE MIDSOUTH. KNQA RADAR IS
ALREADY DEPICTING LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTHEASTERN
CWA... HOWEVER IT IS LIKELY THAT THIS PRECIPITATION IS NOT
REACHING THE GROUND DUE TO REALLY DRY SURFACE AIR IN PLACE.
SHORT TERM...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION OVER NIGHT. MODELS AGREE ON VERY LITTLE QPF
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AND THE MAJORITY OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL STAY DRY.
HOWEVER.. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR DEPICTS SOME VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTH
WEST MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING.
ON A BROADER SCALE... AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WHILE UPPER RIDGING TAKES PLACE NEAR THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREATS LAKES
WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION JUST EAST OF
THE MIDSOUTH ON THURSDAY. THE ONLY EFFECT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON
OUR CWA IS SLIGHTLY RAISED POPS FOR THE COUNTIES IN WEST
TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER... HOWEVER MOST OF THE PRECIP
WILL STAY FAR EAST OF OUR CWA. ABNORMALLY DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
A BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE MIDSOUTH
THURSDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
PARKED OVER THE MIDSOUTH.
LONG TERM...
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY THE WEEKEND
AND ABOVE AVERAGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS
EAST AND FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. MODELS AGREE ON A MORE DYNAMIC WEATHER
PATTERN SETTING UP BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP TROF APPROACHES THE
REGION.
JPM3
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. NOT MUCH CLOUD COVER OR PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST
WINDS AVERAGING BETWEEN 8-12 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS WILL BECOME
LIGHT TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO BETWEEN 8-12KTS AFTER 30/15Z.
04
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
1247 PM EDT WED APR 29 2015
.DISCUSSION...UPDATE...SHOWERS NOT MATERIALIZING. STILL QUITE A BIT
OF A DEWPOINT SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY AND SWVA. HAVING A
HARD TIME SEEING IT MOISTEN UP ENOUGH TO RAIN OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE.
LATEST HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW LITTLE PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. UPDATE TO KNOCK BACK POPS AND CLOUDS QUITE
A BIT FOR ALL AREAS WEST OF I-75. AREAS EAST OF I-75 I LOWERED POPS
AS WELL BUT NOT AS MUCH AS WESTERN AREAS. BEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT
PRECIP STILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND SWNC WITH
UPDATE. ZONES OUT SOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 67 49 69 46 / 80 30 20 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 65 49 65 44 / 50 20 50 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 66 49 65 44 / 30 20 40 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 64 45 61 43 / 50 30 70 50
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
135 PM EDT WED APR 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...
BRINGING WARMER AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...TWO NOTABLE ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO
THE FORECAST. FIRST...00Z/8PM GUIDANCE HAD BEEN HINTING AT SOME
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG AND INVERTED TROUGH. WITH THE 12Z/8AM GUIDANCE SHOWING EQUAL
OR GREATER AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY OVER A GREATER GUIDANCE
MEMBERS...HAVE DECIDED TO INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA...NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH THE LATEST DAY
ONE OUTLOOK FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER WITH GENERAL THUNDER
OVER A SIMILAR REGION. SECOND...CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTHER AS EARLIER
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES HAVE MANAGED TO INCREASE A
LITTLE BIT MORE QUICKLY THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. HAVE ADJUSTED
THE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES UPWARD A FEW DEGREES AT MOST
LOCATIONS IN RESPONSE TO THIS.
AS OF 955 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF BACKING OFF ON POPS TODAY BASED UPON
THE LATEST HRRR AND RNK WRK ARW GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...HAVE SLOWED THE
ONSET OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA...AND SPREADING NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.
COVERAGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE THE GREATEST ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO DECREASED
THE EXTENT OF THE COVERAGE HEAD INTO...AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
AS OF 734 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
CONTINUE TO SEE SLOWER PROGRESS NORTH INTO THE DRIER AIR WE HAVE
IN PLACE...SO BACKED OFF POPS AGAIN AND LOWERED SKY COVER AND
TEMPS EARLY ON BASED ON OBS. STILL LOOKS LIKE MAINLY WRN CWA AFTER
MIDDAY TO SEE SOME SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN...STILL
PATCHY/SCATTERED...WITH MORE COVERAGE TOWARD THE NC MTNS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 4 AM....
OVERALL THE FORECAST EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE DRIER TODAY THAN
WHAT IS APPEARED 24 TO 60 HRS AGO. THIS MORNING...THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH WAS SITUATED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH WEAK FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA. MAIN AREA OF RAINFALL AND LIFT WAS WELL
SOUTH OF US FROM NRN ALABAMA INTO SC.
THE MODELS IN AGREEMENT WHICH SPELLS AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS THIS MORNING...THEN MORE LOWER CLOUDS INTO THE SRN CWA BY LATE
MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITH INCREASING
LIFT...THOUGH THE LOW LVL FLOW IS NOT THAT STRONG.
THE MODELS TAKE THE SFC LOW FROM THE FL PANHANDLE THIS MORNING TO
WELL OFF THE SC COAST BY THIS EVENING...WHILE NRN STREAM ENERGY
DIVES SE INTO THE GREAT LAKES FORMING A WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC. NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH RAIN THREAT TODAY BUT THE PATTERN
FAVORS THE BLUE RIDGE AND WEST HAVING A BETTER CHANCE THAN THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST OVER THE PIEDMONT. HAVE BACKED OFF POPS THIS
MORNING AND SITUATE HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS FROM THE NEW
RIVER VALLEY SOUTH AND WEST TO SRN WV/NW NC. QPF WITH THIS WILL BE
UNDER A QUARTER INCH...WITH MOST ONLY SEEING A FEW HUNDREDTHS.
FOR TEMPS...THINK ENOUGH SUNSHINE IN THE VA PIEDMONT THROUGH HIGH
CLOUDS ALLOWS READINGS TO CLIMB TO LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON WHILE IT
WILL STAY COOLER OVER THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE WHERE SHOWERS/RAIN
MOVE IN QUICKER. THIS AREA WILL ONLY EXPERIENCE HIGHS IN THE 50S.
ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE IN THE 60S.
TONIGHT...THE SRN SHORTWAVE DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES...SOME BACKING FLOW AND DIGGING NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO ALLOW
SOME UPPER FORCING OVER THE MTNS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH THAT RAINFALL
WILL BE NUMEROUS...SO KEPT POPS 50 PERCENT OR LESS TIL DAWN..WHEN
THE UPPER TROUGH HEADS CLOSER WITH BETTER LIFT.
LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S. WEAK SFC WINDS AND INCREASED SFC
MOISTURE EVEN WITH CLOUDS WILL LEAD TO A THREAT OF FOG AREAWIDE...SO
ADDED THAT TO THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE TO BE CONCERNED WITH ON THURSDAY WILL BE AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DESCENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
DURING THE MORNING...REACHING EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING THE EVENING.
THE COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIVE
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES INTO OUR AREA...MEANING THAT WHILE AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
TO THE UPPER 60S FURTHER EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL RAPIDLY WITH
HEIGHT...FALLING BELOW FREEZING SOME FOUR TO SEVEN THOUSAND FEET
ABOVE THE SURFACE. WITH FREEZING HEIGHTS SO LOW...BELIEVE THAT EVEN
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...WHILE ONE
OR TWO OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE QUARTER-SIZE HAIL. IN
ADDITION...WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS...MAY ALSO SEE A COUPLE OF
THE STRONGER CELLS PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY DOWNDRAFTS. WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AROUND SUNSET...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN...BUT EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT QUICKLY FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS DURING THE MORNING...TO OFF THE COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS REDEVELOP DURING THE
MORNING...MORE SO ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...AS DAYTIME HEATING
INCREASES. HOWEVER SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD AIR ALOFT EXITS...WITH DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW TAKING OVER AND ADDING STABILITY TO THE ATMOSPHERE. THE PASSAGE
OF THE UPPER LOW WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER DAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S WEST TO THE LOW 60S EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS ON SATURDAY...WHILE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BEGINS A TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN. THE
INCREASED SUNSHINE...ALBEIT WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON CLOUDS...WILL
COMBINE WITH THE DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW TO PUSH AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE
MID 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND INTO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S EACH NIGHT. BELIEVE CLOUD
COVER ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WILL KEEP FROST FORMATION
ISOLATED AT BEST...IF ANY AT ALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT TUESDAY...
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE FAIRLY HARMONIOUS, DEPICTING GENTLY
UNDULATING ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE A CHANGE FROM THE HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW WE
HAVE ENDURED THIS MONTH SUGGESTING THE COOL AIR WILL FINALLY MAKE
A RETREAT. AS HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES RISE LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS...+4 TO +8 DEGREES...FOR THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF MAY.
THREAT FOR RAINFALL NEXT WEEK LOOKS MINIMAL FOR THE MID
ATLANTIC...WITH FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MID
SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. IT WILL NOT BE ENTIRELY CLEAR HOWEVER...AS
WE STILL ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS TO MOVE QUICKLY
EAST WITHIN THE FAST ZONAL FLOW FROM THE STORMS MID CONUS.
WITH THE MODELS IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT...ANOTHER FEATURE OF INTEREST
SPARKED SOME CURIOSITY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWED THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A CYCLONE...TROPICAL?...JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHETHER THIS COMES TO FRUITION
OR NOT...IT DID CAUSE ME TO TAKE PAUSE AND LOOK AT THE CALENDAR. T-
MINUS 33 DAYS AND COUNTING TO THE OFFICIAL START OF HURRICANE
SEASON.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY EVENING.
CLOUD COVER IS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH...HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A KTNB-KBCB-
KLWB LINE...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS A POTENTIAL.
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY VFR CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED...BUT PATCHY MVFR
LIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS AND
WHERE PRECIPITATION OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
APPROACH OF AN UPPER LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY WILL BRING
INCREASING LAPSE RATES ALOFT...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS COMPARED TO TODAY. ANY
MVFR VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 13-14Z/9-10AM.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ANTICIPATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO CONTINUE ALONG WITH PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
UPPER LOW CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND STORMS...ALONG WITH FLIGHT CATEGORIES
TRENDING TO MVFR FOR VSBYS AND MVFR/IFR FOR CIGS THURSDAY NIGHT.
VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE QUICKLY TO VFR ON FRIDAY...WITH CIGS
GRADUALLY INCREASING TO VFR DURING THE DAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.
THE AREA WILL TRANSITION FROM A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN TO MORE A
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERNIGHT.
OTHER THAN SOME LATE NIGHT EARLY MORNING VALLEY/RIVER
FOG...CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS/WP
NEAR TERM...DS/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1250 PM EDT WED APR 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...
BRINGING WARMER AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...TWO NOTABLE ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO
THE FORECAST. FIRST...00Z/8PM GUIDANCE HAD BEEN HINTING AT SOME
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG AND INVERTED TROUGH. WITH THE 12Z/8AM GUIDANCE SHOWING EQUAL
OR GREATER AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY OVER A GREATER GUIDANCE
MEMBERS...HAVE DECIDED TO INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA...NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH THE LATEST DAY
ONE OUTLOOK FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER WITH GENERAL THUNDER
OVER A SIMILAR REGION. SECOND...CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTHER AS EARLIER
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES HAVE MANAGED TO INCREASE A
LITTLE BIT MORE QUICKLY THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. HAVE ADJUSTED
THE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES UPWARD A FEW DEGREES AT MOST
LOCATIONS IN RESPONSE TO THIS.
AS OF 955 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF BACKING OFF ON POPS TODAY BASED UPON
THE LATEST HRRR AND RNK WRK ARW GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...HAVE SLOWED THE
ONSET OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA...AND SPREADING NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.
COVERAGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE THE GREATEST ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO DECREASED
THE EXTENT OF THE COVERAGE HEAD INTO...AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
AS OF 734 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
CONTINUE TO SEE SLOWER PROGRESS NORTH INTO THE DRIER AIR WE HAVE
IN PLACE...SO BACKED OFF POPS AGAIN AND LOWERED SKY COVER AND
TEMPS EARLY ON BASED ON OBS. STILL LOOKS LIKE MAINLY WRN CWA AFTER
MIDDAY TO SEE SOME SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN...STILL
PATCHY/SCATTERED...WITH MORE COVERAGE TOWARD THE NC MTNS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 4 AM....
OVERALL THE FORECAST EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE DRIER TODAY THAN
WHAT IS APPEARED 24 TO 60 HRS AGO. THIS MORNING...THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH WAS SITUATED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH WEAK FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA. MAIN AREA OF RAINFALL AND LIFT WAS WELL
SOUTH OF US FROM NRN ALABAMA INTO SC.
THE MODELS IN AGREEMENT WHICH SPELLS AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS THIS MORNING...THEN MORE LOWER CLOUDS INTO THE SRN CWA BY LATE
MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITH INCREASING
LIFT...THOUGH THE LOW LVL FLOW IS NOT THAT STRONG.
THE MODELS TAKE THE SFC LOW FROM THE FL PANHANDLE THIS MORNING TO
WELL OFF THE SC COAST BY THIS EVENING...WHILE NRN STREAM ENERGY
DIVES SE INTO THE GREAT LAKES FORMING A WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC. NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH RAIN THREAT TODAY BUT THE PATTERN
FAVORS THE BLUE RIDGE AND WEST HAVING A BETTER CHANCE THAN THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST OVER THE PIEDMONT. HAVE BACKED OFF POPS THIS
MORNING AND SITUATE HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS FROM THE NEW
RIVER VALLEY SOUTH AND WEST TO SRN WV/NW NC. QPF WITH THIS WILL BE
UNDER A QUARTER INCH...WITH MOST ONLY SEEING A FEW HUNDREDTHS.
FOR TEMPS...THINK ENOUGH SUNSHINE IN THE VA PIEDMONT THROUGH HIGH
CLOUDS ALLOWS READINGS TO CLIMB TO LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON WHILE IT
WILL STAY COOLER OVER THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE WHERE SHOWERS/RAIN
MOVE IN QUICKER. THIS AREA WILL ONLY EXPERIENCE HIGHS IN THE 50S.
ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE IN THE 60S.
TONIGHT...THE SRN SHORTWAVE DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES...SOME BACKING FLOW AND DIGGING NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO ALLOW
SOME UPPER FORCING OVER THE MTNS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH THAT RAINFALL
WILL BE NUMEROUS...SO KEPT POPS 50 PERCENT OR LESS TIL DAWN..WHEN
THE UPPER TROUGH HEADS CLOSER WITH BETTER LIFT.
LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S. WEAK SFC WINDS AND INCREASED SFC
MOISTURE EVEN WITH CLOUDS WILL LEAD TO A THREAT OF FOG AREAWIDE...SO
ADDED THAT TO THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE TO BE CONCERNED WITH ON THURSDAY WILL BE AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DESCENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
DURING THE MORNING...REACHING EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING THE EVENING.
THE COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIVE
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES INTO OUR AREA...MEANING THAT WHILE AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
TO THE UPPER 60S FURTHER EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL RAPIDLY WITH
HEIGHT...FALLING BELOW FREEZING SOME FOUR TO SEVEN THOUSAND FEET
ABOVE THE SURFACE. WITH FREEZING HEIGHTS SO LOW...BELIEVE THAT EVEN
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...WHILE ONE
OR TWO OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE QUARTER-SIZE HAIL. IN
ADDITION...WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS...MAY ALSO SEE A COUPLE OF
THE STRONGER CELLS PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY DOWNDRAFTS. WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AROUND SUNSET...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN...BUT EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT QUICKLY FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS DURING THE MORNING...TO OFF THE COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS REDEVELOP DURING THE
MORNING...MORE SO ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...AS DAYTIME HEATING
INCREASES. HOWEVER SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD AIR ALOFT EXITS...WITH DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW TAKING OVER AND ADDING STABILITY TO THE ATMOSPHERE. THE PASSAGE
OF THE UPPER LOW WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER DAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S WEST TO THE LOW 60S EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS ON SATURDAY...WHILE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BEGINS A TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN. THE
INCREASED SUNSHINE...ALBEIT WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON CLOUDS...WILL
COMBINE WITH THE DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW TO PUSH AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE
MID 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND INTO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S EACH NIGHT. BELIEVE CLOUD
COVER ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WILL KEEP FROST FORMATION
ISOLATED AT BEST...IF ANY AT ALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT TUESDAY...
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE FAIRLY HARMONIOUS, DEPICTING GENTLY
UNDULATING ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE A CHANGE FROM THE HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW WE
HAVE ENDURED THIS MONTH SUGGESTING THE COOL AIR WILL FINALLY MAKE
A RETREAT. AS HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES RISE LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS...+4 TO +8 DEGREES...FOR THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF MAY.
THREAT FOR RAINFALL NEXT WEEK LOOKS MINIMAL FOR THE MID
ATLANTIC...WITH FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MID
SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. IT WILL NOT BE ENTIRELY CLEAR HOWEVER...AS
WE STILL ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS TO MOVE QUICKLY
EAST WITHIN THE FAST ZONAL FLOW FROM THE STORMS MID CONUS.
WITH THE MODELS IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT...ANOTHER FEATURE OF INTEREST
SPARKED SOME CURIOSITY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWED THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A CYCLONE...TROPICAL?...JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHETHER THIS COMES TO FRUITION
OR NOT...IT DID CAUSE ME TO TAKE PAUSE AND LOOK AT THE CALENDAR. T-
MINUS 33 DAYS AND COUNTING TO THE OFFICIAL START OF HURRICANE
SEASON.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
FOR TODAY WE WILL SEE CIRRUS INCREASING THEN MID AND LOWER CLOUDS
ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 18Z...WITH MORE CLOUD COVER BY
EVENING. MODELS SLOWING DOWN SHOWERS...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE LIGHT
RAIN OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL AFFECT BCB/BLF/LWB AND LYH LATE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. LIGHT FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE WITH LIGHT
PRECIP OVERNIGHT MAY HELP DEVELOP FOG AND LOWER CIGS...SO HAVE
HEDGED THE FORECAST THAT WAY AFTER 05Z AT ALL SITES.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THURSDAY CIGS MVFR OR WORSE EXPECTED WITH A BETTER THREAT OF
RAIN. MODELS OVERALL SHOWING BETTER COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY
WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE KY/TN AREA LATER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AND NOT CONFIDENT AT THIS POINT ON CIGS...BUT THIS APPEARS TO
FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS KEEPING THE SHOWERS AT TIMES...WITH SUB VFR
CIGS. SHOULD SEE GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS THOUGH AS WIND
STARTS TO PICK UP BETWEEN HIGH TO THE WEST OF THE MTNS AND LOW OFF
THE COAST. THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRIER AS HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS/WP
NEAR TERM...DS/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...AMS/MBS/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND
301 PM PDT WED APR 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF SALEM AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE COAST RANGE. THIS
TROUGH HAS LOWERED TEMPS AS WELL TODAY. THERE IS ALSO A BAND OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OFF THE COAST THAT WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL AREAS
THIS EVENING. ONCE THE UPPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND
THAT BAND WEAKENS...RATHER FLAT WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THAT WILL TEND TO
PRODUCE A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUD REGIME WITH
SUNSHINE MOST AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. ANY WEAK PASSING DISTURBANCES WILL TEND TO BE
DRY AND MAINLY AFFECT THE COVERAGE OF THE MARINE CLOUDS. THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED AROUND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THE MODELS ALL SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS AXIS
MOVING THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A BAND OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ABOUT 60 NM
OFFSHORE THAT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST THIS EVENING THEN WEAKEN
AND DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INLAND. WE ALSO HAVE SOME OVERTURNING
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL MOUNTAINS THAT COULD
DRIFT OUT OVER THE ADJACENT VALLEYS THIS EVENING. THE SHOWERS SHOULD
MOSTLY END BY LATER TONIGHT THOUGH THERE SHOULD STILL BE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND.
BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH...WE WILL SEE A RATHER FLAT WESTERLY FLOW
WITH MODERATELY HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS NEAR 570 DM THAT WILL MAINLY
RESULT IN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN WITH A NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG REGIME. THURSDAY SHOULD SEE PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE MOST AREAS ONCE THE CLOUDS AND ANY PATCHY FOG CLEAR. ON
FRIDAY...THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING BY THAT MIGHT KEEP SOME
SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND ESPECIALLY NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON ONCE THE
MORNING CLOUDS BREAK UP. SATURDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...EXCEPT
THE MODELS INDICATE A LARGER COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS INLAND AND
SOUTHWARD IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY ON SATURDAY MORNING THAN ON FRIDAY
MORNING.
LOOK FOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME TYPE BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS ALONG THE COAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WELL. TOLLESON
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. FOR
SUNDAY...EXPECT THE TREND OF SOME MORNING CLOUDS BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON TO CONTINUE ALONG WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. INCREASED CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WHAT WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME COOLER MARINE AIR...WHICH WILL RETURN
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...ALONG
WITH A ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN. SNOW LEVELS MAY
FALL DOWN TO AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES BY WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS CONTINUING.CULLEN
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET BUT MAINLY WILL NOT AFFECT TERMINAL
CONDITIONS MUCH. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG OR LOW STRATUS EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...GENERALLY AFTER 12Z. BEST LIKELIHOOD APPEARS TO BE
ALONG THE COAST BUT CANNOT RULE OUT INLAND SITES.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR WITH LIGHT NW FLOW TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS BUT THEY ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON THE TERMINAL. MVFR FOG OR LOW
STRATUS POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY...GENERALLY AFTER 12Z. BOWEN
&&
.MARINE...SEAS STUBBORNLY REMAIN AROUND 10 FT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ALMOST 11 FT AT BUOY 29 AND 9 FT AT BUOY 50. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
AN AREA OF 10 FT SEAS PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING IN THE OFFSHORE
NORTHERN WATERS SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS
FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS. ONCE SEAS FINALLY DROP BELOW 10 FT LATER
TODAY...EXPECT THEM TO STAY DOWN AROUND 6 TO 8 FT THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT OUT OF THE SW THIS AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA BUT WITH A SURFACE THERMAL LOW LIKELY
BUILDING OVER THE S OREGON/N CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WILL LIKELY
BRING ADVISORY GUSTS STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS AND DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BOWEN
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 PM
PDT THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
235 PM PDT WED APR 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
This evening will be breezy near the Cascades early...with only
spotty showers close to the BC border. Following this...there
won`t be much chance of any additional precipitation until Tuesday
or Wednesday of next week. Look for temperatures at or above
average through early next week before cooling markedly.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Thursday: Drier air filtering into the region behind
the cold front passage last night has really put a damper on the
post frontal shower activity this afternoon. Some flat cumulus is
building over the Cascade crest, Northeast Mtns and in the
Northern Panhandle. The higher terrain across these areas will see
the best shot at a passing shower through the early evening hours. Skies
will then clear out overnight. This will allow the surface to
radiate quite efficiently with temperatures bottoming out near to
or below freezing across the mountain valleys. This will be
especially so for the colder pockets around the region including
communities such as Winthrop, Republic, Metaline Falls and Deer
Park. Some frost may also be observed early in the morning on
Thursday. Temperatures on Thursday will be a few degrees warmer
compared to today with clear to mostly clear skies across much of
the region. /SVH
Thurs Nt through Wed: We kept the fcst uneventful and straight-forward
through Mon nt before a high level of uncertainty develops
beginning Tues. Until then, we only have an isolated threat of
rain showers for Fri in the mtns along the BC border in the
presence of a quick- moving, dry fropa. This may even be overdone.
The biggest event for Fri will turn out to be the gusty west gap
winds near and in the Cascades. This includes Wenatchee as cross-
Cascade pressure gradients tighten behind the front. These winds
will peak in the early evening. For the Tue and Wed fcst,
individual model run consistencies are very poor, and also
disagree significantly with the track of a moderately strong upper
low that digs SE down the BC coast. Given only two examples, the
GFS takes this low over Ern Wa and N Idaho by Wed, whereas the
ECMWF already has it well east out of the region into Alberta. The
consensus was more or less of a compromise between the two. The
main message, however, is clear: Expect a sharp cool-down that
will accompany an steadily-increasing shower and embedded thunder
threat Tue and Wed. bz
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A cold front is pushing east and south of the central to
northern ID Panhandle. A tightening pressure gradient behind the
front will result in breezy westerly winds through the afternoon
with gusts up to 20-25 mph. Any post frontal showers will likely
be confined to the mountains along the Cascade crest, in northeast
WA and in the ID Panhandle. /SVH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 36 65 43 72 43 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 35 63 38 71 40 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pullman 34 63 38 71 41 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 39 71 42 78 44 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Colville 36 69 43 74 39 71 / 20 0 10 10 0 10
Sandpoint 32 62 35 68 37 66 / 10 0 10 10 0 10
Kellogg 35 61 38 67 40 64 / 0 0 0 10 0 10
Moses Lake 37 73 42 76 42 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 44 72 47 75 47 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 36 71 42 74 42 71 / 0 0 0 10 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
235 PM PDT WED APR 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
This evening will be breezy near the Cascades early...with only
spotty showers close to the BC border. Following this...there
won`t be much chance of any additional precipitation until Tuesday
or Wednesday of next week. Look for temperatures at or above
average through early next week before cooling markedly.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Thursday: Drier air filtering into the region behind
the cold front passage last night has really put a damper on the
post frontal shower activity this afternoon. Some flat cumulus is
building over the Cascade crest, Northeast Mtns and in the
Northern Panhandle. The higher terrain across these areas will see
the best shot at a passing shower through the early evening hours. Skies
will then clear out overnight. This will allow the surface to
radiate quite efficiently with temperatures bottoming out near to
or below freezing across the mountain valleys. This will be
especially so for the colder pockets around the region including
communities such as Winthrop, Republic, Metaline Falls and Deer
Park. Some frost may also be observed early in the morning on
Thursday. Temperatures on Thursday will be a few degrees warmer
compared to today with clear to mostly clear skies across much of
the region. /SVH
Thurs Nt through Wed: We kept the fcst uneventful and straight-forward
through Mon nt before a high level of uncertainty develops
beginning Tues. Until then, we only have an isolated threat of
rain showers for Fri in the mtns along the BC border in the
presence of a quick- moving, dry fropa. This may even be overdone.
The biggest event for Fri will turn out to be the gusty west gap
winds near and in the Cascades. This includes Wenatchee as cross-
Cascade pressure gradients tighten behind the front. These winds
will peak in the early evening. For the Tue and Wed fcst,
individual model run consistencies are very poor, and also
disagree significantly with the track of a moderately strong upper
low that digs SE down the BC coast. Given only two examples, the
GFS takes this low over Ern Wa and N Idaho by Wed, whereas the
ECMWF already has it well east out of the region into Alberta. The
consensus was more or less of a compromise between the two. The
main message, however, is clear: Expect a sharp cool-down that
will accompany an steadily-increasing shower and embedded thunder
threat Tue and Wed. bz
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A cold front is pushing east and south of the central to
northern ID Panhandle. A tightening pressure gradient behind the
front will result in breezy westerly winds through the afternoon
with gusts up to 20-25 mph. Any post frontal showers will likely
be confined to the mountains along the Cascade crest, in northeast
WA and in the ID Panhandle. /SVH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 36 65 43 72 43 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 35 63 38 71 40 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pullman 34 63 38 71 41 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 39 71 42 78 44 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Colville 36 69 43 74 39 71 / 20 0 10 10 0 10
Sandpoint 32 62 35 68 37 66 / 10 0 10 10 0 10
Kellogg 35 61 38 67 40 64 / 0 0 0 10 0 10
Moses Lake 37 73 42 76 42 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 44 72 47 75 47 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 36 71 42 74 42 71 / 0 0 0 10 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1040 AM PDT WED APR 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be breezy and cooler with afternoon temperatures in the
60s over much of the Inland Northwest. Showers today will be
spotty, and there won`t be much chance of any additional
precipitation until Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Look for
temperatures at or above average through early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Morning update to remove thunderstorms in the forecast for this
afternoon. The GFS solution is the most unstable with a bullseye
of CAPE of around 250 J/kg and LIs of -3 over the Northeast Mtns.
This appears to be overdone compared to the ECMWF and NAM
solutions. The GFS seems to be holding on to dew points in the
upper 30s. The NAM and RUC show this moisture mixing out a bit
better with dew points dropping more into the lower and mid 30s.
Considering that there is a dry slot moving into the region behind
last night`s cold front passage, I am inclined to believe the less
unstable model solutions for this afternoon (especially when
little rain fell with the front). Best potential for any
thunderstorms today appear to be under the upper level cold pool
in BC and ahead of the mid level front across the southern ID
Panhandle into southwestern MT. /SVH
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A cold front is pushing east and south of the central to
northern ID Panhandle. A tightening pressure gradient behind the
front will result in breezy westerly winds through the afternoon
with gusts up to 20-25 mph. Any post frontal showers will likely
be confined to the mountains along the Cascade crest, in northeast
WA and in the ID Panhandle. /SVH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 62 38 63 43 72 43 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 60 36 62 38 71 40 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
Pullman 59 34 62 38 71 41 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 66 40 70 42 78 44 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Colville 66 37 68 43 74 39 / 20 20 0 10 10 0
Sandpoint 60 33 61 35 68 37 / 10 10 0 10 10 0
Kellogg 57 36 60 38 67 40 / 10 10 0 0 10 0
Moses Lake 69 39 71 42 76 42 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 68 46 72 47 75 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 67 36 70 42 74 42 / 0 0 0 0 10 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$