Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/28/15


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
936 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015 .DISCUSSION... ...HIGH RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY... ...LOCALLY STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY... TONIGHT-TUE...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING TO THE NORTH SWINGING WINDS AROUND TO EASTERLY BY MORNING. CUT OFF LOW OVER TEXAS WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND THE ASSOCIATED BROAD SURFACE LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL/EAST GULF THROUGH LATE TUE. THE MAIN ITEM IN THE SHORT TERM IS AN MCS OVER THE EASTERN GULF WHICH HAS BEEN PROPAGATING SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENING. THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH MODEL SHOWS THIS CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT AN AREA OF DEBRIS RAIN TO AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD ALSO BRING WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...SO WE COULD ALSO SEE SHOWERS POPPING UP. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION THOUGH. HAVE GONE WITH 50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES IN THE NORTH...TAPERING DOWN TO 30 PERCENT IN THE SOUTH. ON TUE...THE NEXT MCS IS SHOWN IN THE NORTHEAST GULF BY SUNRISE...SO EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA TO START OUT THE DAY. THIS CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG/JUST NORTH OF NORTHWARD RETREATING WARM FRONT...SO EXPECT THAT SOME STORMS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO HOLD TOGETHER SOMEWHAT AND SPREAD INLAND ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HALF IN THE MORNING HOURS. THIS IS DEPICTED BY THE HRRR MODEL...BUT THE 18Z GFS SHOWS THE MCS AND HEAVIER PRECIP AMOUNTS ARRIVING IN THE AFTERNOON. THE TIMING WILL BE KEY TO WHETHER THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER AND BRING A CHANCE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. IN ANY EVENT...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGH TUE WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP HOLDING DOWN MAX TEMPS AGAIN IN THE NORTH AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA TOO. && .AVIATION... SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY KISM-KMCO-KTIX NORTHWARD DUE TO WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLING INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES IN THESE LOCATIONS FROM DECAYING CONVECTION IN EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LATEST HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS THAT HEAVIER PRECIP MAY START TO SPREAD ACROSS THAT AREA TOWARDS SUNRISE IN ASSOCIATION WITH NEXT CLUSTER OF CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY VFR OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OCCURRING. ON TUE...HIGH RAIN CHANCES ARE INDICATED AREAWIDE WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR AND LOCAL IFR IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS. && .MARINE... TONIGHT-TUE...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLING SOUTH OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT TO NORTHERLY AND THEN VEER QUICKLY TO EAST ON TUE. SPEEDS LOOK MAY BE 10-15 KNOTS FOR A TIME TONIGHT THEN DECREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS AS THE BOUNDARY WEAKENS OVER THE WATERS. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF. SPEEDS ARE FORECAST 15-20 KNOTS LATE IN THE DAY. ALSO EXPECT A HIGH CHANCE FOR RAINFALL AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ FORECASTS...LASCODY IMPACT WX...VOLKMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
153 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN MOVES IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF THE NC/SC BORDER TONIGHT. OBSERVATIONS SHOW NORTHEASTERLY WINDS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH IS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO CONTINUE BEHIND THE QLCS DEPARTING OFF THE COAST. THE HIGHEST MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. MESOANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LIFTED INDICES AS LOW AS -4/-5 IN THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF THE FA. EXPECT THIS AREA TO SEE A MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE ACTIVITY FAIRLY WELL AND SHOWS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY DEPARTING THE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z SO HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN OVERNIGHT. OBSERVATIONS SHOW LOW VISIBILITIES IN LANCASTER AND CHESTERFIELD COUNTIES CLOSE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL SOME OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN MILD...ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY WITH THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS LIKELY TO BE MORE FAVORED SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW SINKS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS VA/NC AND OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY EVENING. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND COLD 500 MB TEMPS NOTED ON SUNDAY BUT MOISTURE MAY BE LACKING TO SUPPORT MUCH CONVECTION SO WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A WARM DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE EXTREME NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE COOLER BEHIND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN NEXT WEEK. ON MON/TUE THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST AND YET ANOTHER SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW EJECTING EASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH A PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO OPEN AND DRIFT EASTWARD EVENTUALLY PHASING WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO OUR AREA TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE LATEST GFS RUN AND THE PREVIOUS ECMWF FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD. THE PREVIOUS ECMWF SHOWS SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT ALSO SHOWS ANOTHER CUT-OFF UPPER LOW FORMING OVER THE EASTERN GULF COAST. THIS FEATURE COULD SPREAD PRECIPITATION BACK INTO SC BY LATE SATURDAY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DRY AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... EVENING CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA AND DRIER AIR ALOFT IS MOVING IN. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NC/VA MOUNTAINS AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS NC THROUGH THE DAY. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD LIFR STRATUS/FOG ON THE NORTHSIDE OF A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS. THIS FRONT AND RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT BUT THERE HAVE BEEN SIGNS OF POCKETS OF LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING DUE TO NOCTURNAL COOLING AND MOS GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE IFR CIGS DEVELOPING BUT WILL CARRY A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS 08Z-12Z. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 35 KNOTS SHOULD PREVENT/LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT ALTHOUGH IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL ALLOW STRONG MIXING TO OCCUR DURING THE DAY TODAY AND EXPECT BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS. STRONG INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON BUT LIMITED MOISTURE PRECLUDES ANY MENTION OF TSRA IN THIS FORECAST THOUGH THERE IS REASON TO BELIEVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITH DIURNAL HEATING. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WEDNESDAY. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
326 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IT SEEMS THE BEST WAY TO DESCRIBE TODAY`S WEATHER IS MESSY. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPLIT AS IT IS MOVING EAST. DRIER AIR IS ALREADY WORKING INTO THE WESTERN FRINGE OF OUR FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...A PRETTY PERSISTENT BAND OF RAIN AND SNOW EXTENDS FROM AROUND CHALLIS TO POCATELLO TO NEAR MALAD. AT THE SAME TIME...RAIN AND SNOW IS INCREASING TO THE EAST OF THE BAND. SNOW IS FALLING DOWN TO 6000-6500FT. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME OF THE HIGHER PASSES...LIKE WE`VE ALREADY SEEN AT WILLOW CREEK SUMMIT...GETTING SNOW AT TIMES. HOWEVER...THE IMPACTS FOR MOST OF THEM WILL BE MINIMAL EXCEPT FOR WILLOW CREEK AND HEADING OVER TETON PASS. THOSE TWO PASSES WILL EVENTUALLY SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING. AS THE DAY WEARS ON...WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS WITH THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS WILL BOUNCE BACK TO 6500-7500FT BY AFTERNOON. IT DOES APPEAR THAT WE WILL SEE SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SNAKE PLAIN. THE GFS AND THE HRRR ARE ACTUALLY TRYING TO DEPICT THE POTENTIAL FOR A CONVERGENCE BAND...POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS CRATERS TO AROUND FORT HALL. THAT IS SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN TWO SEPARATE LOCATIONS TODAY. THE FIRST WILL BE ACROSS THE UPPER PLAIN AND HIGHLANDS AS NORTHERLY WINDS KICK IN. THE MAGIC VALLEY AND SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGHLANDS IS THE OTHER...AND WILL LIKELY SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 MPH ARE FORECAST WITH 30-35 MPH IN ISOLATED SPOTS. THIS IS TOO LOW FOR A WIND ADVISORY...BUT IF ENOUGH PLOWING IS ONGOING THERE COULD BE SOME BLOWING DUST IN AREAS THAT SAW LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE DRIER AND MUCH WARMER WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST. BY TUESDAY...HIGHS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 70S FOR THE VALLEYS AND 50S/60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. KEYES .LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF IN AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND A STRONG UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE PAC NW BY WED MORN. THE TROF THEN PASSES THRU ID ON THU. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL MTNS WED AFTN AS THE INCREASING SW FLOW INTERACTS WITH THE TERRAIN. PRECIP INCREASES IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND INTO THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS WED NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROF APPROACHES. BY THU...A COLD FRONT PASSES THRU PUSHING MOST OF THE PRECIP OUT OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. STRONG WEST TO SW WINDS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS ON THU. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO PRECIP IS A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THE MOSTLY DRY GFS. NOW THE PICTURE GETS MUDDY. THE GFS DEVELOPS A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW ON FRI...WHILE THE ECMWF DOES JUST THE OPPOSITE WITH A BROAD TROF. THE GFS MAINTAINS A DRY FCST THRU SUN WITH A DOMINANT RIDGE...WHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER WA. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS A WET SUN AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS IS DRY. WILL CARRY LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS SUN AND SUN NIGHT AND LEAVE THE REST OF THE FCST AREA DRY UNTIL THE PICTURE BECOMES CLEARER. HEDGES && .AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORN...WITH IMPROVING CIGS BY AFTN. SW WINDS WILL BR RATHER STRONG TODAY ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN BY EVE. HEDGES && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1045 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION WITH A SFC RIDGE AXIS JUST TO THE WEST. NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY, GETTING A LITTLE GUSTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LITTLE BIT OF MIXING. MODELS HINTING AT A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE BTWN 5000-8000 FT OR SO. CU RULE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG UNDER THE RIDGE AND MIXING MAY INHIBIT A LOT OF CU...BUT STILL POSSIBLE TO SEE A FEW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE QUIET, AND NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WORK THEIR WAY SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL IL EARLY THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS FROM THE NORTHEAST. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER IN SOUTHEAST IL FROM DAYBREAK UNTIL MID-MORNING. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MIXING IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING CLOSE TO 20 MPH ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON...HIGHS TODAY WILL MAINLY BE AROUND 60 DEGREES DUE TO THE DEEP LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW. .LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER ON TAP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MUCH OF THE WEEK. PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW TO KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE... WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY UNTIL WE FINALLY GET NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF CLOSING OFF OVER WESTERN ARIZONA...AND THIS WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALL OF THE MODELS KEEP THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE TRACKING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER...AND AS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED, A SMALL CLOSED LOW WILL PINCH OFF IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WAVE. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE THIS SMALL LOW DROPPING ACROSS MINNESOTA AND IOWA TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE TAIL END OF THE NAM BRINGS THIS INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND THE GFS PROGRESSES THE WAVE WELL EAST BEFORE THE LOW CAN FORM. NET RESULT OF ALL OF THIS IS FOR DRY CONDITIONS MID WEEK. AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEK...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO MANITOBA...WHILE GENERAL BROAD TROUGHING CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THIS RIDGE FLATTENS BY FRIDAY AS THE NORTHERN STREAM BECOMES MORE ACTIVE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY EVENING...AS THE GFS BRINGS A STRONGER UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF DOES HINT AT POTENTIAL MCS ACTIVITY AS WELL. WITH THE MORE DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS...HAVE KEPT THE LATE WEEKEND FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 THE BACK EDGE OF MVFR/IFR CLOUDS IS JUST SOUTH OF I-70 AS OF 1130Z. A DEEP NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AIR INTO CENTRAL IL TODAY AND PUSH THE LOW CLOUDS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION. HAVE SEEN MVFR VISIBILITY JUST DEVELOP IN EAST CENTRAL IL...SO WILL CONTINUE THIS IN THE TAF FOR KCMI UNTIL 14Z WHEN INCREASING WIND SPEEDS WILL MIX OUT THE LIGHT FOG. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL RESULT IN A TREND TOWARD SOMEWHAT GUSTY WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN ALL OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL. THE RAP AND NAM MODELS BOTH INDICATE THAT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CUMULUS LATER THIS MORNING AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LOWER LEVELS WILL GO THROUGH THE TYPICAL EARLY EVENING DECOUPLING WITH A CLEAR SKY AND VERY LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT. AM NOT EXPECTING ANY FOG AT THIS POINT SINCE THE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND MIXING THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP DRY OUT THE LOWEST LAYERS AND SURFACE. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HJS SHORT TERM...MILLER LONG TERM...GEELHART AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
638 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WORK THEIR WAY SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL IL EARLY THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS FROM THE NORTHEAST. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER IN SOUTHEAST IL FROM DAYBREAK UNTIL MID-MORNING. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MIXING IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING CLOSE TO 20 MPH ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON...HIGHS TODAY WILL MAINLY BE AROUND 60 DEGREES DUE TO THE DEEP LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW. .LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER ON TAP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MUCH OF THE WEEK. PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW TO KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE... WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY UNTIL WE FINALLY GET NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF CLOSING OFF OVER WESTERN ARIZONA...AND THIS WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALL OF THE MODELS KEEP THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE TRACKING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER...AND AS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED, A SMALL CLOSED LOW WILL PINCH OFF IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WAVE. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE THIS SMALL LOW DROPPING ACROSS MINNESOTA AND IOWA TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE TAIL END OF THE NAM BRINGS THIS INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND THE GFS PROGRESSES THE WAVE WELL EAST BEFORE THE LOW CAN FORM. NET RESULT OF ALL OF THIS IS FOR DRY CONDITIONS MID WEEK. AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEK...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO MANITOBA...WHILE GENERAL BROAD TROUGHING CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THIS RIDGE FLATTENS BY FRIDAY AS THE NORTHERN STREAM BECOMES MORE ACTIVE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY EVENING...AS THE GFS BRINGS A STRONGER UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF DOES HINT AT POTENTIAL MCS ACTIVITY AS WELL. WITH THE MORE DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS...HAVE KEPT THE LATE WEEKEND FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 THE BACK EDGE OF MVFR/IFR CLOUDS IS JUST SOUTH OF I-70 AS OF 1130Z. A DEEP NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AIR INTO CENTRAL IL TODAY AND PUSH THE LOW CLOUDS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION. HAVE SEEN MVFR VISIBILITY JUST DEVELOP IN EAST CENTRAL IL...SO WILL CONTINUE THIS IN THE TAF FOR KCMI UNTIL 14Z WHEN INCREASING WIND SPEEDS WILL MIX OUT THE LIGHT FOG. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL RESULT IN A TREND TOWARD SOMEWHAT GUSTY WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN ALL OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL. THE RAP AND NAM MODELS BOTH INDICATE THAT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CUMULUS LATER THIS MORNING AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LOWER LEVELS WILL GO THROUGH THE TYPICAL EARLY EVENING DECOUPLING WITH A CLEAR SKY AND VERY LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT. AM NOT EXPECTING ANY FOG AT THIS POINT SINCE THE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND MIXING THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP DRY OUT THE LOWEST LAYERS AND SURFACE. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MILLER LONG TERM...GEELHART AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
525 PM MDT MON APR 27 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 1255 PM MDT MON APR 27 2015 LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE SCALE CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER TX PANHANDLE WITH MID LEVEL VORTICITY ROTATING THROUGH OK/SOUTHER KS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO BUILD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA..ALONG WITH FALLING TDS. THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...RADAR SHOWS BULK OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP ALONG KS/OK BORDER TRANSITING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME LIGHT RETURNS ROTATING NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. BASED ON INCREASING TD DEPRESSION OVER THE CWA...AND AXIS OF FORCING/BETTER MOISTURE WELL SOUTH...ANY OF THESE LIGHT RETURNS WOULD LIKELY BE VIRGA AT MOST THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR WITH BUILDING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. GOOD RADIATION CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOCATIONS IN OUR CWA TO REACH FREEZING (POSSIBLY LOWER) TONIGHT...THOUGH WITH AN INCREASE IN TD VALUES ADVERTISED FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE WE MAY NOT FALL AS MUCH. WET GROUND CONDITIONS COULD ALSO KEEP TD VALUES FROM DROPPING AS MUCH AS ADVERTISED WHICH SEEMS TO ALREADY BE THE CASE THIS AFTERNOON. TUESDAY...H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST AND TEMPS ALOFT WILL MODERATE A LITTLE...AND BETTER DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS IN THE 60S/NEAR 70 FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. THERE IS STILL A SECONDARY H3 JET PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND A LIGHT PRECIP SIGNAL WITH SOME GUIDANCE IN OUR NORTH. I STILL CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE IN OUR NORTHEAST WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AS MID LEVEL VORT MAX PASSES TO THE NORTH AND COLD POOL DEVELOPS...BUT MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. IN THE END THIS MAY JUST BE VIRGA AND LITTLE ELSE. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT MON APR 27 2015 GOING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...H5/H7 RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ENTIRE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS THRU MIDWEEK. MODELS TREND THIS RIDGE TO FLATTEN... AND ALLOW FOR ZONAL FLOW FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK ON INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS TO ENSUE INTO THURSDAY...BUT WITH RIDGE FLATTENING ALLOWING ZONAL FLOW...THE AREA WILL SEE A SEVERAL 700MB SHORTWAVES WORKING OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS REGION. EACH SUBSEQUENT SYSTEM WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR RW/TRW...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AT THE END OF THE WEEK. SURFACE LEE- SIDE TROUGHS WILL WORK OFF THE FRONT RANGE WITH EACH SYSTEM...PROVIDING ENHANCEMENT FOR TRW TO FORM...ESPECIALLY FOR THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HRS. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED WILL RANGE ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH HIGH/LOWS. 850 TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S...ON UP TO 80F IN SPOTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...WITH SOME L50S POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL/COULD BE TEMPERED SOME BY THE EXTENT OF CLOUDS FROM EXPECTED PRECIP. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 523 PM MDT MON APR 27 2015 VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES IN ITS WAKE. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...JN AVIATION...024
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1231 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1231 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015 UPDATE ISSUED TO REDUCE HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA BASED ON PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER THRU THE DAY THUS FAR. AS A RESULT...ALL AREAS HAVE SEEN A COUPLE DEGREES DROP BASED OFF OF LATEST OBS TREND IN PAST SEVERAL HRS. REST OF FORECAST UNCHANGED. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE GRADIENT OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO MONDAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY/MONDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING THE FLOW HAS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF COUNTRY WITH EXPECTED SOUTHERN CUTOFF LOW NOW STARTING TO MOVE INTO ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO. NATURE OF FLOW WHICH IN SOME RESPECTS IS RETROGRESSING A LITTLE WOULD INDICATE THE PATTERN IS GOING TO BE SLOW TO CHANGE. COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH WITH UPSLOPE WINDS AND STRATUS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA. AT JET LEVEL...MODELS HANDLED THIS WELL THE GFS THE WORST AND TOO STRONG. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS WERE HAVING A LITTLE TROUBLE WITH THE DEVELOPING WESTERN TROUGH. THEY TENDED TO BE TOO DEEP WITH THE NAM THE WORST. OUTSIDE OF THIS THE NAM WAS NOT DOING TOO BAD. OVERALL THE GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND UKMET. THE CANADIAN WERE DOING THE WORST. MODELS HAD SURFACE LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST TOO FAR NORTH. THE RUC AND ECMWF WERE DOING THE BEST. THE MODELS WERE DOING WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH THE GFS...CANADIAN...SREF AND NAM DOING THE BEST. TODAY/TONIGHT...MAJORITY OF CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING STAYED MOSTLY TO THE WEST. UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE WEST NOT PAINTING/SUPPORTING A WET FORECAST WITH A VERY DEEP DRY LAYER AND WHAT MOISTURE THERE IS AT 700 MB AT ITS LOWEST. IT LOOKS LIKE A LOT OF DRY AIR GETS PULLED INTO THE AREA BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SUPPORTS A RATHER FAR SOUTH SOLUTION OF THE EVENTUAL UPPER LOW WITH THE LARGEST HEIGHT FALLS OVER ARIZONA. NEW MODEL SUITE SUPPORTS WHAT THE ANALYSIS IS SHOWING. MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAS STAYED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA ALL NIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG IN THE SATURATED LOW LEVELS. DYNAMICS TO OUR WEST BEGINS TO AFFECT MOST OF THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY BEFORE SOME DRYING ALOFT OCCUR AS THE LIFT MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...SHOULD HAVE A WIDE VARIETY OF WEATHER THIS MORNING. AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST DURING THE MORNING. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ELEVATED CAPE AND FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. WILL BE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE DAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME. CLOUD COVER SHOULD STAY THICK MOST OF THE DAY WITH MAYBE SOME CLEARING IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION AS A LITTLE DRIER AIR MOVES IN TO THERE. KEPT THE COOLER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE WITH COOLEST READINGS IN THE FAR WEST WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY NEED NOT GET OUT OF THE 40S. SOUTHERN CUTOFF LOW GETS ORGANIZED AND IN A DECENT POSITION TO GIVE THE AREA SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST THIRD TO HALF. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO OCCUR FROM EARLY EVENING TO NEAR 09Z AS THE BEST/DEEPEST MOISTURE GETS IN PLACE. AFTER THAT THE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION STARTS ITS GRADUAL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ITS SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST AS THE EXITING SYSTEM MOVES AWAY. ONCE AGAIN THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION. CLEARING WILL ALSO BEGIN WITH MOST OF THE NORTH HALF GETTING A LOT OF SUNSHINE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. COULD BE QUITE A GRADIENT WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH THE NORTH THE WARMEST AS IT SEES THE MOST SUN. LINGERING SPOTTY PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY LATE IN THE EVENING. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST IT CLEARS...TEMPERATURES COULD GET QUITE CHILLY WITH A VERY LIGHT WIND FIELD IN PLACE. TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AND NORTHERLY FLOW MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN. ONE THING THAT COULD SPOIL THAT WILL BE A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT THAT MOVES IN AND SPREADS SOME CLOUDS INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. ECMWF IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT QPF. HOWEVER...THERE IS NO INSTABILITY AND A RATHER DEEP DRY LAYER. SO IT SHOULD STAY DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM DUE TO SUNSHINE BUT WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE UNFAVORABLE SURFACE WIND FIELD. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015 A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE RIDGE PUSHES FURTHER EAST. PRECIP CHANCES MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PAC NW TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES AND SWRLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP IS KEPT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHORTWAVES POSSIBLY GENERATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. READINGS IN THE LOW 80S ARE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015 FOR KGLD...THRU 12Z MONDAY CEILINGS WILL RANGE FROM OVC002-007 IN DRIZZLE AND FOG THAT DROPS VISIBILITY IN A 2-6 MILE RANGE. AFT 12Z MONDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH OVC015 AND VCSH. WINDS ENE THRU FORECAST PERIOD 10-20KTS...HIGHEST BEFORE 00Z MONDAY...AND AFTER 12Z MONDAY. FOR KMCK...SLOW INCREASING TREND IN CEILINGS HEIGHTS THRU FORECAST PERIOD. LOOKING FOR MVFR/IFR MIX THRU 03Z...THEN TRENDING TO MVFR BKN030 THRU 09Z...THEN VFR AT BKN035. SOME DRIZZLE THROUGH 22Z WITH 5SM IN FOG. WINDS ENE 10-20KTS...MOST GUSTS NEAR 20KTS THROUGH 22Z THIS AFTERNOON. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JN SHORT TERM...BULLER LONG TERM...JBH AVIATION...JN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1130 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 948 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015 UPDATE ISSUED TO DECREASE PRECIP COVERAGE THRU REST OF MORNING HRS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE MENTION OF HIGHER POPS/THUNDER FROM THE ENTIRE CWA FORECAST REST OF MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MORNING HRS HERE IN THE CWA HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT FOG AND MAINLY DRIZZLE. MOST APPRECIABLE RETURNS HAVE BEEN FOCUSED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AROUND THE UPPER LOW. EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE CWA HAVE AIDED IN UPSLOPE CONDITIONS KEEPING PRECIP FOCUSED WEST OF OUR CWA BORDERS. AM EXPECTING AN INCREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THOUGH AS UPPER LOW PIVOTS OUT ONTO THE PLAINS. HAVE SHOWN INCREASING POPS TOWARDS THAT TIMEFRAME AS WELL AS A FEW HOURS WHERE THUNDER IS POSSIBLE WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH LOW PROXIMITY. REST OF FORECAST FOR TEMPS/WINDS REMAIN ON TRACK. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE GRADIENT OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO MONDAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY/MONDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING THE FLOW HAS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF COUNTRY WITH EXPECTED SOUTHERN CUTOFF LOW NOW STARTING TO MOVE INTO ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO. NATURE OF FLOW WHICH IN SOME RESPECTS IS RETROGRESSING A LITTLE WOULD INDICATE THE PATTERN IS GOING TO BE SLOW TO CHANGE. COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH WITH UPSLOPE WINDS AND STRATUS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA. AT JET LEVEL...MODELS HANDLED THIS WELL THE GFS THE WORST AND TOO STRONG. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS WERE HAVING A LITTLE TROUBLE WITH THE DEVELOPING WESTERN TROUGH. THEY TENDED TO BE TOO DEEP WITH THE NAM THE WORST. OUTSIDE OF THIS THE NAM WAS NOT DOING TOO BAD. OVERALL THE GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND UKMET. THE CANADIAN WERE DOING THE WORST. MODELS HAD SURFACE LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST TOO FAR NORTH. THE RUC AND ECMWF WERE DOING THE BEST. THE MODELS WERE DOING WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH THE GFS...CANADIAN...SREF AND NAM DOING THE BEST. TODAY/TONIGHT...MAJORITY OF CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING STAYED MOSTLY TO THE WEST. UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE WEST NOT PAINTING/SUPPORTING A WET FORECAST WITH A VERY DEEP DRY LAYER AND WHAT MOISTURE THERE IS AT 700 MB AT ITS LOWEST. IT LOOKS LIKE A LOT OF DRY AIR GETS PULLED INTO THE AREA BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SUPPORTS A RATHER FAR SOUTH SOLUTION OF THE EVENTUAL UPPER LOW WITH THE LARGEST HEIGHT FALLS OVER ARIZONA. NEW MODEL SUITE SUPPORTS WHAT THE ANALYSIS IS SHOWING. MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAS STAYED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA ALL NIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG IN THE SATURATED LOW LEVELS. DYNAMICS TO OUR WEST BEGINS TO AFFECT MOST OF THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY BEFORE SOME DRYING ALOFT OCCUR AS THE LIFT MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...SHOULD HAVE A WIDE VARIETY OF WEATHER THIS MORNING. AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST DURING THE MORNING. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ELEVATED CAPE AND FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. WILL BE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE DAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME. CLOUD COVER SHOULD STAY THICK MOST OF THE DAY WITH MAYBE SOME CLEARING IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION AS A LITTLE DRIER AIR MOVES IN TO THERE. KEPT THE COOLER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE WITH COOLEST READINGS IN THE FAR WEST WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY NEED NOT GET OUT OF THE 40S. SOUTHERN CUTOFF LOW GETS ORGANIZED AND IN A DECENT POSITION TO GIVE THE AREA SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST THIRD TO HALF. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO OCCUR FROM EARLY EVENING TO NEAR 09Z AS THE BEST/DEEPEST MOISTURE GETS IN PLACE. AFTER THAT THE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION STARTS ITS GRADUAL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ITS SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST AS THE EXITING SYSTEM MOVES AWAY. ONCE AGAIN THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION. CLEARING WILL ALSO BEGIN WITH MOST OF THE NORTH HALF GETTING A LOT OF SUNSHINE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. COULD BE QUITE A GRADIENT WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH THE NORTH THE WARMEST AS IT SEES THE MOST SUN. LINGERING SPOTTY PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY LATE IN THE EVENING. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST IT CLEARS...TEMPERATURES COULD GET QUITE CHILLY WITH A VERY LIGHT WIND FIELD IN PLACE. TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AND NORTHERLY FLOW MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN. ONE THING THAT COULD SPOIL THAT WILL BE A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT THAT MOVES IN AND SPREADS SOME CLOUDS INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. ECMWF IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT QPF. HOWEVER...THERE IS NO INSTABILITY AND A RATHER DEEP DRY LAYER. SO IT SHOULD STAY DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM DUE TO SUNSHINE BUT WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE UNFAVORABLE SURFACE WIND FIELD. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015 A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE RIDGE PUSHES FURTHER EAST. PRECIP CHANCES MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PAC NW TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES AND SWRLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP IS KEPT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHORTWAVES POSSIBLY GENERATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. READINGS IN THE LOW 80S ARE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015 FOR KGLD...THRU 12Z MONDAY CEILINGS WILL RANGE FROM OVC002-007 IN DRIZZLE AND FOG THAT DROPS VISIBILITY IN A 2-6 MILE RANGE. AFT 12Z MONDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH OVC015 AND VCSH. WINDS ENE THRU FORECAST PERIOD 10-20KTS...HIGHEST BEFORE 00Z MONDAY...AND AFTER 12Z MONDAY. FOR KMCK...SLOW INCREASING TREND IN CEILINGS HEIGHTS THRU FORECAST PERIOD. LOOKING FOR MVFR/IFR MIX THRU 03Z...THEN TRENDING TO MVFR BKN030 THRU 09Z...THEN VFR AT BKN035. SOME DRIZZLE THROUGH 22Z WITH 5SM IN FOG. WINDS ENE 10-20KTS...MOST GUSTS NEAR 20KTS THROUGH 22Z THIS AFTERNOON. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JN SHORT TERM...BULLER LONG TERM...JBH AVIATION...JN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
948 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 948 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015 UPDATE ISSUED TO DECREASE PRECIP COVERAGE THRU REST OF MORNING HRS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE MENTION OF HIGHER POPS/THUNDER FROM THE ENTIRE CWA FORECAST REST OF MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MORNING HRS HERE IN THE CWA HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT FOG AND MAINLY DRIZZLE. MOST APPRECIABLE RETURNS HAVE BEEN FOCUSED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AROUND THE UPPER LOW. EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE CWA HAVE AIDED IN UPSLOPE CONDITIONS KEEPING PRECIP FOCUSED WEST OF OUR CWA BORDERS. AM EXPECTING AN INCREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THOUGH AS UPPER LOW PIVOTS OUT ONTO THE PLAINS. HAVE SHOWN INCREASING POPS TOWARDS THAT TIMEFRAME AS WELL AS A FEW HOURS WHERE THUNDER IS POSSIBLE WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH LOW PROXIMITY. REST OF FORECAST FOR TEMPS/WINDS REMAIN ON TRACK. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE GRADIENT OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO MONDAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY/MONDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING THE FLOW HAS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF COUNTRY WITH EXPECTED SOUTHERN CUTOFF LOW NOW STARTING TO MOVE INTO ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO. NATURE OF FLOW WHICH IN SOME RESPECTS IS RETROGRESSING A LITTLE WOULD INDICATE THE PATTERN IS GOING TO BE SLOW TO CHANGE. COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH WITH UPSLOPE WINDS AND STRATUS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA. AT JET LEVEL...MODELS HANDLED THIS WELL THE GFS THE WORST AND TOO STRONG. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS WERE HAVING A LITTLE TROUBLE WITH THE DEVELOPING WESTERN TROUGH. THEY TENDED TO BE TOO DEEP WITH THE NAM THE WORST. OUTSIDE OF THIS THE NAM WAS NOT DOING TOO BAD. OVERALL THE GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND UKMET. THE CANADIAN WERE DOING THE WORST. MODELS HAD SURFACE LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST TOO FAR NORTH. THE RUC AND ECMWF WERE DOING THE BEST. THE MODELS WERE DOING WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH THE GFS...CANADIAN...SREF AND NAM DOING THE BEST. TODAY/TONIGHT...MAJORITY OF CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING STAYED MOSTLY TO THE WEST. UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE WEST NOT PAINTING/SUPPORTING A WET FORECAST WITH A VERY DEEP DRY LAYER AND WHAT MOISTURE THERE IS AT 700 MB AT ITS LOWEST. IT LOOKS LIKE A LOT OF DRY AIR GETS PULLED INTO THE AREA BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SUPPORTS A RATHER FAR SOUTH SOLUTION OF THE EVENTUAL UPPER LOW WITH THE LARGEST HEIGHT FALLS OVER ARIZONA. NEW MODEL SUITE SUPPORTS WHAT THE ANALYSIS IS SHOWING. MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAS STAYED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA ALL NIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG IN THE SATURATED LOW LEVELS. DYNAMICS TO OUR WEST BEGINS TO AFFECT MOST OF THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY BEFORE SOME DRYING ALOFT OCCUR AS THE LIFT MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...SHOULD HAVE A WIDE VARIETY OF WEATHER THIS MORNING. AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST DURING THE MORNING. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ELEVATED CAPE AND FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. WILL BE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE DAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME. CLOUD COVER SHOULD STAY THICK MOST OF THE DAY WITH MAYBE SOME CLEARING IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION AS A LITTLE DRIER AIR MOVES IN TO THERE. KEPT THE COOLER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE WITH COOLEST READINGS IN THE FAR WEST WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY NEED NOT GET OUT OF THE 40S. SOUTHERN CUTOFF LOW GETS ORGANIZED AND IN A DECENT POSITION TO GIVE THE AREA SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST THIRD TO HALF. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO OCCUR FROM EARLY EVENING TO NEAR 09Z AS THE BEST/DEEPEST MOISTURE GETS IN PLACE. AFTER THAT THE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION STARTS ITS GRADUAL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ITS SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST AS THE EXITING SYSTEM MOVES AWAY. ONCE AGAIN THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION. CLEARING WILL ALSO BEGIN WITH MOST OF THE NORTH HALF GETTING A LOT OF SUNSHINE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. COULD BE QUITE A GRADIENT WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH THE NORTH THE WARMEST AS IT SEES THE MOST SUN. LINGERING SPOTTY PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY LATE IN THE EVENING. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST IT CLEARS...TEMPERATURES COULD GET QUITE CHILLY WITH A VERY LIGHT WIND FIELD IN PLACE. TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AND NORTHERLY FLOW MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN. ONE THING THAT COULD SPOIL THAT WILL BE A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT THAT MOVES IN AND SPREADS SOME CLOUDS INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. ECMWF IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT QPF. HOWEVER...THERE IS NO INSTABILITY AND A RATHER DEEP DRY LAYER. SO IT SHOULD STAY DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM DUE TO SUNSHINE BUT WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE UNFAVORABLE SURFACE WIND FIELD. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015 A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE RIDGE PUSHES FURTHER EAST. PRECIP CHANCES MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PAC NW TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES AND SWRLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP IS KEPT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHORTWAVES POSSIBLY GENERATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. READINGS IN THE LOW 80S ARE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015 FOR KGLD...LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...LIFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE SITE THROUGH THE MORNING. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE...LIGHT RAIN OR FOG WILL PREVAIL ALMOST THE ENTIRE PERIOD. FOR KMCK...LOW LEVEL AIR MASS HERE WILL DRY WITH TIME. LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL MID AFTERNOON WHEN MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE UNTIL 06Z. AT THAT TIME...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JN SHORT TERM...BULLER LONG TERM...JBH AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
732 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 732 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015 UPDATE ISSUED TO ACCT FOR LATEST OBS TREND. CURRENTLY...THE ENTIRE TRI STATE REGION REMAINS UNDER A THICK VEIL OF LOW CLOUD...WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S. AREAS OF FOG PERSIST ALONG WITH DRIZZLE...SO PLAN ON KEEPING IN FORECAST FOR NOW AND WILL REVISIT FOR NEXT ESTF UPDATE. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE GRADIENT OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO MONDAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY/MONDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING THE FLOW HAS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF COUNTRY WITH EXPECTED SOUTHERN CUTOFF LOW NOW STARTING TO MOVE INTO ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO. NATURE OF FLOW WHICH IN SOME RESPECTS IS RETROGRESSING A LITTLE WOULD INDICATE THE PATTERN IS GOING TO BE SLOW TO CHANGE. COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH WITH UPSLOPE WINDS AND STRATUS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA. AT JET LEVEL...MODELS HANDLED THIS WELL THE GFS THE WORST AND TOO STRONG. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS WERE HAVING A LITTLE TROUBLE WITH THE DEVELOPING WESTERN TROUGH. THEY TENDED TO BE TOO DEEP WITH THE NAM THE WORST. OUTSIDE OF THIS THE NAM WAS NOT DOING TOO BAD. OVERALL THE GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND UKMET. THE CANADIAN WERE DOING THE WORST. MODELS HAD SURFACE LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST TOO FAR NORTH. THE RUC AND ECMWF WERE DOING THE BEST. THE MODELS WERE DOING WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH THE GFS...CANADIAN...SREF AND NAM DOING THE BEST. TODAY/TONIGHT...MAJORITY OF CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING STAYED MOSTLY TO THE WEST. UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE WEST NOT PAINTING/SUPPORTING A WET FORECAST WITH A VERY DEEP DRY LAYER AND WHAT MOISTURE THERE IS AT 700 MB AT ITS LOWEST. IT LOOKS LIKE A LOT OF DRY AIR GETS PULLED INTO THE AREA BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SUPPORTS A RATHER FAR SOUTH SOLUTION OF THE EVENTUAL UPPER LOW WITH THE LARGEST HEIGHT FALLS OVER ARIZONA. NEW MODEL SUITE SUPPORTS WHAT THE ANALYSIS IS SHOWING. MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAS STAYED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA ALL NIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG IN THE SATURATED LOW LEVELS. DYNAMICS TO OUR WEST BEGINS TO AFFECT MOST OF THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY BEFORE SOME DRYING ALOFT OCCUR AS THE LIFT MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...SHOULD HAVE A WIDE VARIETY OF WEATHER THIS MORNING. AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST DURING THE MORNING. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ELEVATED CAPE AND FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. WILL BE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE DAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME. CLOUD COVER SHOULD STAY THICK MOST OF THE DAY WITH MAYBE SOME CLEARING IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION AS A LITTLE DRIER AIR MOVES IN TO THERE. KEPT THE COOLER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE WITH COOLEST READINGS IN THE FAR WEST WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY NEED NOT GET OUT OF THE 40S. SOUTHERN CUTOFF LOW GETS ORGANIZED AND IN A DECENT POSITION TO GIVE THE AREA SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST THIRD TO HALF. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO OCCUR FROM EARLY EVENING TO NEAR 09Z AS THE BEST/DEEPEST MOISTURE GETS IN PLACE. AFTER THAT THE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION STARTS ITS GRADUAL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ITS SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST AS THE EXITING SYSTEM MOVES AWAY. ONCE AGAIN THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION. CLEARING WILL ALSO BEGIN WITH MOST OF THE NORTH HALF GETTING A LOT OF SUNSHINE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. COULD BE QUITE A GRADIENT WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH THE NORTH THE WARMEST AS IT SEES THE MOST SUN. LINGERING SPOTTY PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY LATE IN THE EVENING. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST IT CLEARS...TEMPERATURES COULD GET QUITE CHILLY WITH A VERY LIGHT WIND FIELD IN PLACE. TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AND NORTHERLY FLOW MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN. ONE THING THAT COULD SPOIL THAT WILL BE A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT THAT MOVES IN AND SPREADS SOME CLOUDS INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. ECMWF IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT QPF. HOWEVER...THERE IS NO INSTABILITY AND A RATHER DEEP DRY LAYER. SO IT SHOULD STAY DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM DUE TO SUNSHINE BUT WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE UNFAVORABLE SURFACE WIND FIELD. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015 A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE RIDGE PUSHES FURTHER EAST. PRECIP CHANCES MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PAC NW TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES AND SWRLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP IS KEPT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHORTWAVES POSSIBLY GENERATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. READINGS IN THE LOW 80S ARE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015 FOR KGLD...LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...LIFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE SITE THROUGH THE MORNING. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE...LIGHT RAIN OR FOG WILL PREVAIL ALMOST THE ENTIRE PERIOD. FOR KMCK...LOW LEVEL AIR MASS HERE WILL DRY WITH TIME. LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL MID AFTERNOON WHEN MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE UNTIL 06Z. AT THAT TIME...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JN SHORT TERM...BULLER LONG TERM...JBH AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
556 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE GRADIENT OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO MONDAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY/MONDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING THE FLOW HAS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF COUNTRY WITH EXPECTED SOUTHERN CUTOFF LOW NOW STARTING TO MOVE INTO ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO. NATURE OF FLOW WHICH IN SOME RESPECTS IS RETROGRESSING A LITTLE WOULD INDICATE THE PATTERN IS GOING TO BE SLOW TO CHANGE. COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH WITH UPSLOPE WINDS AND STRATUS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA. AT JET LEVEL...MODELS HANDLED THIS WELL THE GFS THE WORST AND TOO STRONG. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS WERE HAVING A LITTLE TROUBLE WITH THE DEVELOPING WESTERN TROUGH. THEY TENDED TO BE TOO DEEP WITH THE NAM THE WORST. OUTSIDE OF THIS THE NAM WAS NOT DOING TOO BAD. OVERALL THE GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND UKMET. THE CANADIAN WERE DOING THE WORST. MODELS HAD SURFACE LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST TOO FAR NORTH. THE RUC AND ECMWF WERE DOING THE BEST. THE MODELS WERE DOING WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH THE GFS...CANADIAN...SREF AND NAM DOING THE BEST. TODAY/TONIGHT...MAJORITY OF CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING STAYED MOSTLY TO THE WEST. UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE WEST NOT PAINTING/SUPPORTING A WET FORECAST WITH A VERY DEEP DRY LAYER AND WHAT MOISTURE THERE IS AT 700 MB AT ITS LOWEST. IT LOOKS LIKE A LOT OF DRY AIR GETS PULLED INTO THE AREA BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SUPPORTS A RATHER FAR SOUTH SOLUTION OF THE EVENTUAL UPPER LOW WITH THE LARGEST HEIGHT FALLS OVER ARIZONA. NEW MODEL SUITE SUPPORTS WHAT THE ANALYSIS IS SHOWING. MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAS STAYED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA ALL NIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG IN THE SATURATED LOW LEVELS. DYNAMICS TO OUR WEST BEGINS TO AFFECT MOST OF THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY BEFORE SOME DRYING ALOFT OCCUR AS THE LIFT MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...SHOULD HAVE A WIDE VARIETY OF WEATHER THIS MORNING. AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST DURING THE MORNING. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ELEVATED CAPE AND FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. WILL BE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE DAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME. CLOUD COVER SHOULD STAY THICK MOST OF THE DAY WITH MAYBE SOME CLEARING IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION AS A LITTLE DRIER AIR MOVES IN TO THERE. KEPT THE COOLER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE WITH COOLEST READINGS IN THE FAR WEST WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY NEED NOT GET OUT OF THE 40S. SOUTHERN CUTOFF LOW GETS ORGANIZED AND IN A DECENT POSITION TO GIVE THE AREA SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST THIRD TO HALF. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO OCCUR FROM EARLY EVENING TO NEAR 09Z AS THE BEST/DEEPEST MOISTURE GETS IN PLACE. AFTER THAT THE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION STARTS ITS GRADUAL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ITS SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST AS THE EXITING SYSTEM MOVES AWAY. ONCE AGAIN THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION. CLEARING WILL ALSO BEGIN WITH MOST OF THE NORTH HALF GETTING A LOT OF SUNSHINE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. COULD BE QUITE A GRADIENT WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH THE NORTH THE WARMEST AS IT SEES THE MOST SUN. LINGERING SPOTTY PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY LATE IN THE EVENING. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST IT CLEARS...TEMPERATURES COULD GET QUITE CHILLY WITH A VERY LIGHT WIND FIELD IN PLACE. TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AND NORTHERLY FLOW MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN. ONE THING THAT COULD SPOIL THAT WILL BE A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT THAT MOVES IN AND SPREADS SOME CLOUDS INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. ECMWF IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT QPF. HOWEVER...THERE IS NO INSTABILITY AND A RATHER DEEP DRY LAYER. SO IT SHOULD STAY DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM DUE TO SUNSHINE BUT WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE UNFAVORABLE SURFACE WIND FIELD. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015 A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE RIDGE PUSHES FURTHER EAST. PRECIP CHANCES MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PAC NW TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES AND SWRLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP IS KEPT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHORTWAVES POSSIBLY GENERATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. READINGS IN THE LOW 80S ARE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015 FOR KGLD...LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...LIFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE SITE THROUGH THE MORNING. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE...LIGHT RAIN OR FOG WILL PREVAIL ALMOST THE ENTIRE PERIOD. FOR KMCK...LOW LEVEL AIR MASS HERE WILL DRY WITH TIME. LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL MID AFTERNOON WHEN MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE UNTIL 06Z. AT THAT TIME...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BULLER LONG TERM...JBH AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
420 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE GRADIENT OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO MONDAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY/MONDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING THE FLOW HAS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF COUNTRY WITH EXPECTED SOUTHERN CUTOFF LOW NOW STARTING TO MOVE INTO ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO. NATURE OF FLOW WHICH IN SOME RESPECTS IS RETROGRESSING A LITTLE WOULD INDICATE THE PATTERN IS GOING TO BE SLOW TO CHANGE. COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH WITH UPSLOPE WINDS AND STRATUS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA. AT JET LEVEL...MODELS HANDLED THIS WELL THE GFS THE WORST AND TOO STRONG. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS WERE HAVING A LITTLE TROUBLE WITH THE DEVELOPING WESTERN TROUGH. THEY TENDED TO BE TOO DEEP WITH THE NAM THE WORST. OUTSIDE OF THIS THE NAM WAS NOT DOING TOO BAD. OVERALL THE GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND UKMET. THE CANADIAN WERE DOING THE WORST. MODELS HAD SURFACE LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST TOO FAR NORTH. THE RUC AND ECMWF WERE DOING THE BEST. THE MODELS WERE DOING WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH THE GFS...CANADIAN...SREF AND NAM DOING THE BEST. TODAY/TONIGHT...MAJORITY OF CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING STAYED MOSTLY TO THE WEST. UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE WEST NOT PAINTING/SUPPORTING A WET FORECAST WITH A VERY DEEP DRY LAYER AND WHAT MOISTURE THERE IS AT 700 MB AT ITS LOWEST. IT LOOKS LIKE A LOT OF DRY AIR GETS PULLED INTO THE AREA BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SUPPORTS A RATHER FAR SOUTH SOLUTION OF THE EVENTUAL UPPER LOW WITH THE LARGEST HEIGHT FALLS OVER ARIZONA. NEW MODEL SUITE SUPPORTS WHAT THE ANALYSIS IS SHOWING. MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAS STAYED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA ALL NIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG IN THE SATURATED LOW LEVELS. DYNAMICS TO OUR WEST BEGINS TO AFFECT MOST OF THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY BEFORE SOME DRYING ALOFT OCCUR AS THE LIFT MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...SHOULD HAVE A WIDE VARIETY OF WEATHER THIS MORNING. AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST DURING THE MORNING. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ELEVATED CAPE AND FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. WILL BE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE DAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME. CLOUD COVER SHOULD STAY THICK MOST OF THE DAY WITH MAYBE SOME CLEARING IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION AS A LITTLE DRIER AIR MOVES IN TO THERE. KEPT THE COOLER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE WITH COOLEST READINGS IN THE FAR WEST WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY NEED NOT GET OUT OF THE 40S. SOUTHERN CUTOFF LOW GETS ORGANIZED AND IN A DECENT POSITION TO GIVE THE AREA SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST THIRD TO HALF. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO OCCUR FROM EARLY EVENING TO NEAR 09Z AS THE BEST/DEEPEST MOISTURE GETS IN PLACE. AFTER THAT THE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION STARTS ITS GRADUAL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ITS SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST AS THE EXITING SYSTEM MOVES AWAY. ONCE AGAIN THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION. CLEARING WILL ALSO BEGIN WITH MOST OF THE NORTH HALF GETTING A LOT OF SUNSHINE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. COULD BE QUITE A GRADIENT WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH THE NORTH THE WARMEST AS IT SEES THE MOST SUN. LINGERING SPOTTY PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY LATE IN THE EVENING. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST IT CLEARS...TEMPERATURES COULD GET QUITE CHILLY WITH A VERY LIGHT WIND FIELD IN PLACE. TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AND NORTHERLY FLOW MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN. ONE THING THAT COULD SPOIL THAT WILL BE A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT THAT MOVES IN AND SPREADS SOME CLOUDS INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. ECMWF IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT QPF. HOWEVER...THERE IS NO INSTABILITY AND A RATHER DEEP DRY LAYER. SO IT SHOULD STAY DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM DUE TO SUNSHINE BUT WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE UNFAVORABLE SURFACE WIND FIELD. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015 A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE RIDGE PUSHES FURTHER EAST. PRECIP CHANCES MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PAC NW TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES AND SWRLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP IS KEPT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHORTWAVES POSSIBLY GENERATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. READINGS IN THE LOW 80S ARE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015 KGLD...IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE EAST GUSTING 15 TO 20KTS AT TIMES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO BE IN THE VICINITY OR OVER THE TERMINAL FROM 08Z-20Z AS VARIOUS WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. KMCK...IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 19Z WITH EAST WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUSTING 15-20KTS. FROM 20Z-01Z CIGS IMPROVE SLIGHTLY TO MVFR CATEGORY WITH CONTINUED EAST WIND GUSTING TO 20KTS. AFTER 02Z CIGS LOOK TO RISE JUST ABOVE MVFR CATEGORY WITH WINDS VERY SLOWLY DECREASING TOWARD 10KTS...ESPECIALLY AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BULLER LONG TERM...JBH AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
344 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 ...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION... .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE THE KEY TO CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS TODAY. AT THIS TIME THE DEPTH OF THIS MOIST LAYER WILL BE JUST BELOW 3000FT AGL BASED ON THE NAM AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE DEPTH OF THIS MOIST LAYER WILL BE SLIGHTLY DEEPER WEST OF HIGHWAY 283 THAN EAST SO GIVEN THIS WILL FAVOR KEEPING A MENTION OF DRIZZLE GOING NEAR AND WEST OF DODGE CITY TODAY. IN ADDITION 700MB TO 500MB LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE GREATER THAN 8C/KM AS A WEAK 400MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY CROSSES SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS MAY BRIEFLY ENHANCE LIFT ENOUGH FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAINSHOWERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO WARM MUCH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER SO HAVE KEPT THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND TO AROUND 10 DEGREES OR LESS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. AFTER 00Z MONDAY ANOTHER, STRONGER, UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND APPROACH SOUTHWEST KANSAS. GIVEN SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND IMPROVING LIFT AHEAD OF THIS NEXT UPPER WAVE EARLY TONIGHT THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TO OCCUR, MAINLY IN SOUTHERN KANSAS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. CURRENTLY AM CONCERNED ABOUT HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE 700MB TO 500MB DEFORMATION ZONE AND THE SLIGHTLY TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS WEST TEXAS. GIVEN THIS TREND ALONG WITH WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE, INSTABILITY AND LIFT WILL BE OVERNIGHT WILL BEGIN TO LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. FURTHER SOUTH THE HIGHEST FOR OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 THE NAM AND THE ECMWF ARE THE SOLUTIONS WITH THE SHARPEST CUTOFF OF PLACEMENT OF THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF COLD CONVEYOR BELT PRECIPITATION/CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS COUNTIES FOR MONDAY. BY COMPARISON, THE GFS IS THE FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION. HOWEVER IN EITHER CASE, THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SUGGEST A WEDGE OF DRY MID LEVEL AIR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE DEFORMATION AXIS, SUGGESTING LOWERED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES, FROM AROUND SCOTT CITY TO HAYS. AS SUCH WE`VE USED A MODEL BLEND TOWARD THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS WHICH IS WARMER ACROSS OUR FURTHEST NORTHEAST COUNTIES, AND CONTINUED TO TREND LOWER THE POPS ACROSS THOSE AREAS. CAPE IS BASICALLY NONEXISTENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES EARLY MONDAY, LEAVING DEFORMATION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE THE MAIN MECHANISMS FOR FORCING, PRODUCING RAIN, AND COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. BEYOND THE MONDAY TIMEFRAME, THE PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY BENIGN WITH A MEAN WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES MAY WARM TO THE 80S BY THE THURSDAY-SATURDAY TIMEFRAME AS A SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPS. THE POLAR WESTERLIES SETUP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A STRONG WAVE MODELED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF TO DIVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AROUND LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT COULD BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION, WHICH THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER THE BLEND SOLUTION DERTERMINES THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR MEASUREABLE PRECIPITATION TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS EARLY TONIGHT SHOWING LIFR CEILINGS SPREADING SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. BASED ON LOWERING CEILINGS FROM THE UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS, 00Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS, ALONG WITH THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR THE CEILINGS WILL FALL INTO THE LIFR CATEGORY BY 06Z SUNDAY AND THEN REMAIN BELOW 500FT AGL THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z. CEILINGS WILL THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z. VISIBILITIES SHOULD STAY IN THE MVFR CATEGORY BASED ON THE MODEL SOUNDINGS AND GIVEN THAT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 56 42 48 40 / 10 60 60 30 GCK 54 43 47 38 / 20 50 60 20 EHA 56 41 46 38 / 30 90 80 30 LBL 58 45 46 40 / 40 80 80 40 HYS 55 41 59 40 / 10 20 30 20 P28 65 48 50 43 / 10 70 70 50 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BURGERT LONG TERM...RUSSELL AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
237 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 ...UPDATED SHORT TERM FORECAST... .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE THE KEY TO CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS TODAY. AT THIS TIME THE DEPTH OF THIS MOIST LAYER WILL BE JUST BELOW 3000FT AGL BASED ON THE NAM AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE DEPTH OF THIS MOIST LAYER WILL BE SLIGHTLY DEEPER WEST OF HIGHWAY 283 THAN EAST SO GIVEN THIS WILL FAVOR KEEPING A MENTION OF DRIZZLE GOING NEAR AND WEST OF DODGE CITY TODAY. IN ADDITION 700MB TO 500MB LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE GREATER THAN 8C/KM AS A WEAK 400MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY CROSSES SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS MAY BRIEFLY ENHANCE LIFT ENOUGH FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAINSHOWERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO WARM MUCH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER SO HAVE KEPT THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND TO AROUND 10 DEGREES OR LESS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. AFTER 00Z MONDAY ANOTHER, STRONGER, UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND APPROACH SOUTHWEST KANSAS. GIVEN SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND IMPROVING LIFT AHEAD OF THIS NEXT UPPER WAVE EARLY TONIGHT THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TO OCCUR, MAINLY IN SOUTHERN KANSAS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. CURRENTLY AM CONCERNED ABOUT HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE 700MB TO 500MB DEFORMATION ZONE AND THE SLIGHTLY TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS WEST TEXAS. GIVEN THIS TREND ALONG WITH WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE, INSTABILITY AND LIFT WILL BE OVERNIGHT WILL BEGIN TO LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. FURTHER SOUTH THE HIGHEST FOR OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015 FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE SPREADING FROM FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS INTO MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR OR SOUTH OF HAYS. WILL RANGE RAIN CHANCES FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT AT HAYS TO 60 AT DODGE CITY AND AROUND 90 PERCENT AT LIBERAL AND ELKHART. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY, WITH OVER AN INCH SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF DODGE CITY. LOWS MONDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLEST OVER WESTERN KANSAS WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID AND UPPER 40S THERE, TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S EAST OF DODGE CITY. FOR TUESDAY, THE UPPER LOW OVER OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST. THE NEW ECMWF HAS THE LOW MOVING OUT MUCH FASTER THAN THE GFS AND CANADIAN. WILL CONTINUE WITH LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING FROM NEAR DODGE CITY AND SOUTH. LOWS TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE FROM 39 WEST TO THE MID 40S OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES SLOWLY MOVING EAST INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL WARM FROM THE 40S TO THE 50S. HIGHS WILL WARM FROM THE LOW 70S ON WEDNESDAY TO AROUND 80 FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS EARLY TONIGHT SHOWING LIFR CEILINGS SPREADING SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. BASED ON LOWERING CEILINGS FROM THE UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS, 00Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS, ALONG WITH THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR THE CEILINGS WILL FALL INTO THE LIFR CATEGORY BY 06Z SUNDAY AND THEN REMAIN BELOW 500FT AGL THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z. CEILINGS WILL THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z. VISIBILITIES SHOULD STAY IN THE MVFR CATEGORY BASED ON THE MODEL SOUNDINGS AND GIVEN THAT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 57 42 53 41 / 20 60 60 30 GCK 53 43 49 40 / 30 50 60 20 EHA 54 41 46 39 / 50 90 90 40 LBL 57 45 48 41 / 30 80 90 50 HYS 54 41 58 40 / 20 20 30 20 P28 65 48 56 44 / 10 70 70 50 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BURGERT LONG TERM...KRUSE AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1217 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 ...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 AT 00Z SUNDAY A +100KT 250MB JET WAS LOCATED ON THE WEST SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN NEVADA INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON. EAST OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH A WEAK 500MB RIDGE AXIS WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. ALSO EVIDENT OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WAS A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. ONE SURFACE BOUNDARY AT 00Z SUNDAY APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS. BEHIND THIS SECOND BOUNDARY COOLER AIR WAS PRESENT AT THE SURFACE AND THE 850MB LEVEL ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS SPREADING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015 A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT TRAVERSED THE CENTRAL PLAINS YESTERDAY HAS MOVED EASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST, SHIFTING THE LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS EASTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS HAD RESULT IN DOWNSLOPE WARMING, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. SOME COLD ADVECTION WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS. SOME CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE; AND A FEW SHOWERS WITH A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS THROUGH THE EVENING. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PROGRESS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT, A COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO NEBRASKA WILL MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO KANSAS, WITH UPSLOPE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING. THIS COOLER UPSTREAM AIRMASS WAS ALREADY MOIST, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA. THEREFORE, AS THIS AIR MOVES UP SLOPE INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS, EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDINESS WILL RESULT. IN ADDITION, THE MOIST LAYER WILL APPROACH 1 KM IN DEPTH, WHICH WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT TOWARD MORNING, ESPECIALLY FROM GARDEN CITY AND SCOTT CITY WESTWARD TO THE COLORADO BORDER. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MOVES EVEN CLOSER AND BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF, THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HAD BEEN SUPPRESSED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AND OVER THE LOW LEVEL FRONTAL SURFACE. HOWEVER, ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL JUST AFTER 7 PM SUNDAY, SO THAT THE DETAILS OF THIS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE CLOUDY AIRMASS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY SHOULD ONLY RISE A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER, WITH 50S ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN KANSAS, AND SOME 60S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015 FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE SPREADING FROM FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS INTO MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR OR SOUTH OF HAYS. WILL RANGE RAIN CHANCES FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT AT HAYS TO 60 AT DODGE CITY AND AROUND 90 PERCENT AT LIBERAL AND ELKHART. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY, WITH OVER AN INCH SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF DODGE CITY. LOWS MONDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLEST OVER WESTERN KANSAS WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID AND UPPER 40S THERE, TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S EAST OF DODGE CITY. FOR TUESDAY, THE UPPER LOW OVER OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST. THE NEW ECMWF HAS THE LOW MOVING OUT MUCH FASTER THAN THE GFS AND CANADIAN. WILL CONTINUE WITH LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING FROM NEAR DODGE CITY AND SOUTH. LOWS TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE FROM 39 WEST TO THE MID 40S OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES SLOWLY MOVING EAST INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL WARM FROM THE 40S TO THE 50S. HIGHS WILL WARM FROM THE LOW 70S ON WEDNESDAY TO AROUND 80 FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS EARLY TONIGHT SHOWING LIFR CEILINGS SPREADING SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. BASED ON LOWERING CEILINGS FROM THE UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS, 00Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS, ALONG WITH THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR THE CEILINGS WILL FALL INTO THE LIFR CATEGORY BY 06Z SUNDAY AND THEN REMAIN BELOW 500FT AGL THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z. CEILINGS WILL THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z. VISIBILITIES SHOULD STAY IN THE MVFR CATEGORY BASED ON THE MODEL SOUNDINGS AND GIVEN THAT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 42 53 41 64 / 60 60 30 20 GCK 43 49 40 65 / 60 60 20 10 EHA 41 46 39 61 / 90 90 40 10 LBL 45 48 41 62 / 80 90 50 20 HYS 41 58 40 67 / 30 30 20 10 P28 48 56 44 65 / 60 70 50 30 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BURGERT SHORT TERM...FINCH LONG TERM...KRUSE AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
949 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015 .UPDATE... THERE ARE NUMEROUS FORECAST CONCERNS BOTH ON LAND AND OVER THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT. FOR THE TIME BEING...THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING APPEARS LIMITED OVER MOST LAND AREAS...BUT STILL ELEVATED NEAR THE EXTREME SOUTH COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE A WELL DEFINED FRONTAL/STRONG CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY HAS SETTLED. THIS AREA OF STRONGEST CONVECTION ALSO APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE FAVORABLE NOSE OF THE SUBRTROPICAL JET WHERE UPPER DIVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. THE 18Z GFS APPEARS TO BE VERIFYING QPF WISE THE BEST...AND THE HRRR GIVE SHORT TERM SUPPORT TO THE GFS. HAD CONCERNS EARLIER THIS EVENING THAT RAINFALL/QPF WOULD EXCEED EARLIER EXPECTATIONS WHEN THINGS DEVELOPED RAPIDLY...BUT TRENDS MAY NOW BE REVERSING. WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW GIVEN ALL THE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS THAT REMAIN IN PLACE...BUT THE WATCH COULD NEED TO BE TRIMMED BACK CLOSER TO THE COAST LATER TONIGHT. UPDATES WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. 22/TD && .MARINE... NUMEROUS UNFORESEEN FACTORS HAVE KEPT FAIRLY CONSISTENT STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL GALES...EVEN AWAY FROM THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EARLIER THIS EVENING...AND WILL KEEP THAT INTACT AND ISSUE SHORT FUSE SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS FOR THE NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT SHOULD CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT. 22/TD && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 813 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/ ..SOUNDING DISCUSSION... THE SOUNDING THIS EVENING IS DEPICTING A MODIFIED ENVIRONMENT AT LOW LEVELS FROM THE CONVECTION EARLIER TODAY. WINDS ARE EASTERLY FROM THE SFC TO 750 MB THEN SWITCH TO WESTERLY. THERE IS A 10 F INVERSION FROM THE SFC TO 900 MB... WHICH IMPLIES CONVECTION TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING IS ELEVATED. SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A MORE RICH MARITIME AIRMASS FROM THE GULF WOULD RESULT IN A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE COAST. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP HOWEVER AT ABOUT 7.3 C/KM. THE JET MAX IS 120 KTS AT 160 MB AND PW IS ABOVE NORMAL AT 1.46 INCHES. KRAUTMANN PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/ SHORT TERM... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERNS TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE POTENT STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED WAVES OF ENERGY IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. IT WAS A BUSY MORNING WITH NUMEROUS SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS AND SOME REPORTS OF FLOODING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA HAVE BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. CURRENT THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AS STORMS TO THE WEST MOVE ACROSS THIS REGION. LARGE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED THE LAST COUPLE HOURS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...OFF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...WILL LIKELY GROW IN NUMBER AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO WEST TO SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA EITHER LATE THIS EVENING OR AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS WOULD BE CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER FORECAST REASONING AND THE TRENDS OF THE LATEST 12Z GFS AND ECMWF QPF FORECASTS. IT IS ANTICIPATED THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN SINGLE CELLS...CLUSTERS AND LINE SEGMENTS...AND THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE AND FAST MOVEMENT SHOULD HOLD THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS DOWN IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE IN MOST AREAS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS THIS EVENING...AS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LARGER SWATHS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH EMBEDDED HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 6 INCHES. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THESE AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED OR EXCEEDED...THERE WILL BE MAXIMIZED RAINFALL EFFICIENCY THAT COULD DROP SOME 2 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS IN A ONE TO TWO HOUR PERIOD. FOR THAT REASON...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS OBVIOUSLY NEEDED TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE LEFT THE WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 PM TUESDAY. THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. BASED ON THE RECENT HISTORY OF SEVERE TRENDS...THE STRONG DYNAMICS...IMPRESSIVE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER AS HIGH AS AROUND 2 INCHES...WILL ALL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR FLOODING RAINS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IMPROVEMENT WILL BE ON THE HORIZON STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND ESPECIALLY GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN. LONG TERM... THE DRY AIR WILL LEAD TO COOLER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR WILL MOVE FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ANY ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO ONLY A FEW PASSING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA HAS NO MENTION OF RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AND MUCH OF THIS TIME WILL BE COMPLETELY CLEAR WITH LOW HUMIDITY. 22/TD AVIATION... EXPECT VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE LEFT VCTS IN MOST TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND SHOULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS FROM WEST TO EAST MAINLY AFTER 06Z. MARINE... AFTER AN EVENTFUL MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON STORMS ARE FINALLY PUSHING OUT OF THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND THEY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND AND MOVE EAST THROUGH THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY. THIS WILL HELP SHIFT WINDS FROM AN EASTERLY AND SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TO NW. WITH THE LOW MOVING EAST SLOWLY...NW WIND SPEEDS WILL STAY ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY. RETURN FLOW ON SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL START ONCE AGAIN BY NEXT WEEK. 13/MH DECISION SUPPORT... DSS CODE...ORANGE DEPLOYED...NAVY WEEK. ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES...MONITORING SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL THROUGH TUESDAY. DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH VISIBILITY EVENT YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 70 60 71 51 / 90 90 50 20 BTR 72 64 75 52 / 80 90 40 20 ASD 73 67 77 55 / 100 100 50 20 MSY 74 69 79 57 / 100 100 40 20 GPT 74 66 75 58 / 100 100 60 30 PQL 73 65 78 58 / 100 100 70 40 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR LAZ034>037-039- 040-046>050-056>072. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ536-538-550- 552-555-557-570-572-575-577. MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MSZ068>071-077- 080>082. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ538-550-552- 555-557-570-572-575-577. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
727 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO SRN JAMES BAY. TO THE E...A MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES/NRN NEW ENGLAND COAST EXTENDS BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND WRAPS SOME MOISTURE BACK INTO THE UPPER LAKES. AS OF 19Z...W EDGE OF THE STRATOCU DECK FM THIS MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW RUNS FROM ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE FAR ERN COUNTIES OF UPPER MI. CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED INTO CENTRAL UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT WITH THE MID-LVL AND SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR EXCEPT PARTLY CLOUDY EAST WHERE THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FOR CLOUDS ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRES TROUGH AT LEAST INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TONIGHT TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE INTERIOR WEST WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL MAXIMIZED DUE TO CALM WINDS UNDER AXIS OF SFC RIDGE AND PWATS OF .25 INCH OR LESS. ELSEWHERE MIN TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 30S. ON TUESDAY...MODELS INDICATE SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NRN PLAINS BUT SHOW BEST Q-VECT CONV AND MID-LVL MOISTURE ASSOC WITH SHORTWAVE GENERALLY LIFTING NORTH AND WEST OF UPPER MI. MODELS HINT THAT PERHAPS THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA COULD SEE SOME SPRINKLES/-SHRA TUE EVENING. BUT GIVEN THE DRYNESS OF THE AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE WL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FCST THROUGH 00Z WED BUT REFLECT EXPECTED INCREASE IN MID-LVL CLOUDS ALONG WEAK COLD-FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN GRIDS. HIGH TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST COULD REACH INTO THE MID 60S...BUT DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS UNDER WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER (IN THE 50S) ALONG THE GREAT LAKES AND EAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015 A RIDGE (FROM HIGH PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA) WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES EVEN AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE FIRST WAVE AND DECAYING COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CWA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD (TUESDAY NIGHT)...BUT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LOOK LIMITED AND THE BEST MID LEVEL FORCING SLIDES TO THE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AT THIS POINT...DIDN/T FEEL STRONGLY ENOUGH TO ADD ANY POPS IN FOR THE LAND AREAS (KEPT OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR)...BUT IT MAY BE A SITUATION WHERE WE MIGHT HAVE TO ADD SOME SPRINKLES TO THE FORECAST OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THAT FIRST WAVE...ANOTHER WAVE (CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE IN NORTHERN ALBERTA) WILL DIVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND AFFECTING THE EASTERN U.P. ON WEDNESDAY. ONCE AGAIN...WITH LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...ANY PRECIP WILL BE TIED TO THE MOISTURE INDICATED BELOW 850MB ON THE MODELS. THERE IS SOME LIFT IN THAT REGION...TIED TO THE POCKET OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...BUT WOULDN/T EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN CLOUDS AND A FEW SPRINKLES. WITH THIS WAVE LOOKING MUCH STRONGER THAN THE FIRST...WILL ADD SOME SPRINKLES OVER THE EAST AND NORTH CENTRAL (WHICH MAY HAVE SOME UPSLOPE HELP) FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING EAST ON FRIDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY WILL KEEP TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS CLOUDS DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. THEN...AS WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES UNDER DEEP MIXING (TO 800-750MB) AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EAST AND PARTLY CLOUDY WEST. FORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND OFFSET THE LOWER RH (UPPER 20S TO MID 30S) AS THE U.P. IS IN ITS CRITICAL TIME BEFORE GREEN-UP. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING EAST...THE REGION WILL TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND POTENTIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK. THAT WILL PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVES BRUSH THE AREA. TIMING THESE WAVES IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT IN THESE SITUATIONS...SO WILL SHOW SOME SLIGHT CHANCES (ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST) ASSOCIATED WITH TWO WAVES QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SUNDAY LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT...WITH ANOTHER WAVE POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THIS WAVE...WHETHER IT STAYS NORTH OR MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BUT THERE THEY INDICATE ENOUGH BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION TO SUPPORT SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 726 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WITH DAYTIME LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS DOMINATING WINDS AND WIND DIRECTIONS. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015 AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS E ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL FALL OFF TO MOSTLY UNDER 10KT ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE. ON TUE...WINDS WILL BE UNDER 15KT AS THE RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A WEAK LOW PRES TROF THAT PASSES TUE NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...ANOTHER HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE S FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WED/THU. AS THE HIGH BEGINS RIDGING S INTO THE UPPER LAKES WED...WINDS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY GUST TO NEAR 20KT ONCE AGAIN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER THE W. WITH WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER LAKES THU INTO SAT...WIND SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNDER 15KT. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...VOSS LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...JLB MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
317 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP CYC FLOW ARND CLOSED LO CENTERED OVER NOVA SCOTIA EXTENDING W INTO THE UPR LKS AND DOWNSTREAM OF UPR RDG IN THE PLAINS. SHRTWV EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPR TROF IS NEAR THE SOO AND SHIFTING TO THE SSW IN THE NE UPR FLOW ARND THE CLOSED LO. THIS DISTURBANCE IS BRINGING SOME CLDS TO ERN UPR MI...BUT ANY ACCOMPANYING PCPN IS ON TRACK TO REMAIN TO THE E OF THE CWA. THERE IS ANOTHER SHRTWV OVER WRN QUEBEC ROTATING TO THE WSW ARND THE CLOSED LO. 12Z RAOB FM MOOSONEE ONTARIO SHOWED DEEP SATURATION. UNDER THE TWO SHRTWVS NOTED TO THE E...THERE ARE PLENTY OF LO CLDS E AND NE OF THE SOO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEEPER MSTR. DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS FARTHER TO THE W AS SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB AND INL RAOBS /12Z PWAT AT THOSE LOCATIONS WAS ABOUT 0.25 INCH AND AS LITTLE AS 50 PCT OF NORMAL/ IS MAINTAINING MOSUNNY SKIES OVER MOST OF THE CWA. TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 50S AWAY FM THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF LK SUP...BUT READINGS REMAIN NEAR 40 ALONG THE CHILLY LK SUP SHORE. MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR AREA OF LO CLDS TO THE NE TO IMPACT UPR MI AND IMPACT ON TEMPS. TNGT...AS SECOND SHRTWV NOW OVER WRN QUEBEC ROTATES SWWD AND OVER FAR ERN UPR MI...THE LLVL FLOW IS FCST TO VEER MORE TO THE NE AND ADVECT THE MORE COPIOUS LLVL MSTR INTO THE UPR LKS. IN CONCERT WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING THAT WL END DEEP MIXING...EXPECT BKN-OVC LO CLDS TO DVLP OVER MAINLY THE NCENTRAL AND ERN CWA AS INDICATED BY CURRENT FCST. ALTHOUGH THE DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THIS SHRTWV ARE FCST TO BRUSH THE ERN CWA...THE BULK OF THE MODELS INDICATE THE PCPN WL REMAIN TO THE E OF THAT AREA WITH THE MID LVLS REMAINING TOO DRY. SEVERAL OF THE HIER RES MODELS DO GENERATE SOME LGT PCPN OVER MAINLY THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NCENTRAL...WHERE THE UPSLOPE FLOW WL BE MAXIMIZED. OPTED TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF SOME DRIZZLE/FLURRIES IN THESE AREAS LATE TNGT. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR FAR W...WHICH WL BE FARTHER FM THE INCOMING HIER LLVL MSTR AND WHERE DOWNSLOPE...MORE DIFFLUENT FLOW NEAR SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS WL RESTRICT THE POTENTIAL FOR LO CLDS THAT WOULD ARRIVE LATER. MON...WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND FCST LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVRN SHOWN ON FCST SDNGS...EXPECT THE LO CLDS TO GRADUALLY MIX OUT. THIS PROCESS WL BE SLOWEST OVER THE NCENTRAL AND E. H85 TEMPS WL BE CLOSE TO 0C...SO MAX TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE 50S OVER THE INTERIOR W AND SCENTRAL WITH DEEP MIXING. BUT HI TEMPS WL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE LO END OF GUIDANCE OVER THE NCENTRAL AND E WITH MORE LO CLDS/LK MODERATION IN PERSISTENT LLVL N FLOW. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 A DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED MOST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IS DOMINANT FACTOR. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN VARIABLE...STARTING OUT WITH A RIDGE ALOFT UPSTREAM OF LARGE UPPER LOW MOVING OFF THE EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. STRONG JET SURGING ACROSS WESTERN CANADA BRINGS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SCNTRL CANADA ON MONDAY AND FM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. PRIMARY WAVE SPLITS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE LINGERING RIDGING FM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN QUEBEC. EXPECT DRY WEATHER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF SHOWED SHORTWAVE DIVING SSE ACROSS UPR LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND LIFT. THAT RUN OF ECMWF ALSO FORECASTED SUFFICIENT H85-H7 RH TO GENERATE QPF OVER MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS WEDNESDAY EVENING. GFS AND GEM-NH AND NOW THE 12Z ECMWF NOT AS BULLISH THOUGH...KEEPING STRONGEST FORCING TO THE EAST. WILL NOT SHOW MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCES FAR EAST AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN CHILLY TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHERLY GRADIENT WINDS NEAR LK SUPERIOR. TEMPS MAY STILL TOUCH 60 DEGREES OVER INLAND AREAS NEAR WI BORDER. SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST BY THURSDAY PAVING THE WAY FOR RIDGING TO EXPAND FM CNTRL PLAINS TO SCNTRL CANADA TOWARD WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AS THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE MORE OF A LAKE BREEZE DAY AT LEAST WEST...SO COOLING THERE WILL NOT BE AS EXPANSIVE AS WEDNESDAY. ENOUGH GRADIENT NORTH WINDS EAST TO KEEP ANY LK MICHIGAN LAKE BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING. DUE TO DEEPER MIXING...EXPECT HIGHS INLAND WEST TO REACH LOW-MID 60S. SHOWED LOWEST DWPNTS/RH OVER INTERIOR WEST BUT ALSO ALONG LK MICHIGAN WHERE PERSISTENT NORTH WINDS PROVIDE DOWNSLOPE DRYING. MORE STRONG JET ENERGY PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN CANADA WILL PROPEL ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER SCNTRL CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. UNLIKE THE WAVE EARLIER IN THE WEEK...WAVE HOLDS TOGETHER WHILE PRESSING EAST AND THERE IS DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG ASSOCIATED SFC-H85 TROUGH SWINGING TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES. AFTER A WARM AND DRY DAY FOR FRIDAY WITH SOME TEMPS REACHING LOWER 70S...SOME SHOWERS SHOULD SWING OVER THE CWA LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...BUT DESPITE THE WARMTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...THERE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH H85 THETA-E ADVECTION OR FORECAST INSTABILITY TO PUT ANY TSRA IN ALONG THE TROUGH. SEEMS MODELS ARE LOCKING ONTO THIS IDEA OF SOME SHRA THOUGH WITH SIMILAR TIMING IN TROUGH PASSAGE. CARRIED LOW CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. INTO NEXT WEEKEND...GFS QUICKER WITH PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER SCNTRL CANADA...SO IT SHOWS ANOTHER SFC TROUGH AND WARM/MOIST ADVECTION/QPF INTO WESTERN LAKES AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF APPEARED MORE REASONABLE BY SHOWING SLOWER PROGRESSION OF MAIN TROUGHING AND DEVELOPING A SFC WARM FRONT FM NORTHERN PLAINS TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON LEADING EDGE OF VERY WARM AIR. 00Z ECMWF WOULD INDICATE DUE TO THE MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT TO THE NORTH OF WARM FRONT COULD SEE CHANCES OF ELEVATED SHOWERS SPREAD TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. BETTER CHANCE FOR TSRA WOULD BE CLOSER...BUT PROBABLY WOULD SET UP JUST SOUTH OF UPPER LAKES CLOSER TO GRADIENT OF 1-2K J/KG MUCAPE AREA FM CNTRL PLAINS TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LATEST ECMWF IS A MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PLOWING MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT INTO UPR LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LEANED ON CONSENSUS BUT DID INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY GIVEN THAT TREND. DID NOT PUT TSRA IN FORECAST YET THOUGH THOUGH BASED ON H85 THETA-E AND GRADIENT OF MUCAPE FM THE 12Z ECMWF IT COULD OCCUR OVER THE AREA. GIVEN H85 TEMPS WARMING ABOVE +10C...TEMPS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY COULD RISE AT LEAST INTO THE LOW 70S MOST AREAS AWAY FM ANY COOLING FM THE LAKES. BASED ON 12Z RUNS OF MODELS...THINK BEST CHANCE FOR WARMING WILL BE ON SATURDAY AFTN IN WAKE OF FRIDAY NIGHT SYSTEM WITH WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND INCREASING SUNSHINE/DRYING. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL DEPEND ON SHRA AND CLOUD COVERAGE. LEANED ON CONSENSUS TEMPS /HIGHS MAINLY 60S/ MORE THAN SATURDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN BY THAT POINT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 AS MORE LLVL MSTR ARRIVES FM THE NE TNGT IN THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...EXPECT LO CLDS TO IMPACT MAINLY CMX AND ESPECIALLY SAW...WHERE THE EXPECTED NNE WIND WL HAVE THE SHARPER UPSLOPE COMPONENT. IFR CIGS SHOULD OCCUR AT SAW FOR A NUMBER OF HRS LATE TNGT THRU MUCH OF MON MRNG. IFR CONDITIONS AT CMX WL ALSO BE PSBL...BUT MAINTAINED PREVIOUS FCST LO MVFR RANGE CONDITIONS FOR NOW. IWD MAY ALSO SEE SOME LO CLDS/MVFR CIGS...BUT DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT AND LOCATION OF WRN EDGE OF THE MORE SGNFT MSTR JUSTIFY ONLY A SCT SKY FCST ATTM. SAW WL SEE THE SLOWEST IMPROVEMENT ON MON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS NOT LIKELY THERE UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THIS FCST PERIOD. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 EXPECT N WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MON...STRONGEST OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE UNDER SHARPER PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HI PRES RIDGE ALIGNED FROM NW ONTARIO THRU THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. AS THE HI PRES RIDGE DRIFTS TO THE E LATER ON MON THRU TUE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH UNDER 15 KTS. A LO PRES TROF WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES TUE NIGHT AND THEN GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER HI PRES RIDGE THRU THU. SINCE THE PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE...WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW 15 KTS. ALTHOUGH THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP A BIT ON FRI AHEAD OF ANOTHER LO PRES TROF...HI STABILITY OVER THE CHILLY LAKE WATERS SHOULD HOLDS WINDS UNDER 15 KTS. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...JLA AVIATION...KC MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
132 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO SRN HUDSON BAY. TO THE SE...A MID LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH ITS BROAD CIRCULATION EXTENDING BACK TO THE UPPER LAKES. TWO SHORTWAVES OF NOTE ARE SWINGING W IN THE MID LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION ACROSS SE CANADA. THE FIRST IS S OF JAMES BAY AND THE SECOND IS N OF MAINE. AT THE SFC... THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS SUPPORTING HIGH PRES RIDGING S FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UNDER DRY AIR MASS PER 00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS...CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FCST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. TO THE NE...FIRST SHORTWAVE S OF JAMES IS HELPING TO SPREAD SCT-BKN CLOUDS TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE S OF JAMES BAY WILL ROTATE INTO NRN LWR MI THIS AFTN/EVENING...SPREADING SOME CLOUDINESS INTO THE ERN FCST AREA TODAY. TRENDS IN THE MODELS SHOW A BACKING OFF ON THE POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON OVERNIGHT SATELLITE IMAGERY. FCST THUS REFLECTS A MORE OPTIMISTIC SKY CONDITION FOR CNTRL UPPER MI TODAY. MAY STILL SEE SOME PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER THE ERN FCST AREA THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY LATE. AS FOR TEMPS...RATHER BRISK GRADIENT FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL HOLD TEMPS TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. MOST LAKESIDE LOCATIONS FROM THE KEWEENAW EASTWARD WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 30S. WELL INLAND...NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS AND PROJECTED MIXING HEIGHTS SUGGEST HIGH TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 50F. THERE MAY BE SOME LWR 50S TOWARD THE MI/WI BORDER FROM MENOMINEE COUNTY TO IRON COUNTY. TONIGHT...SECOND SHORTWAVE NOW N OF MAINE WILL FOLLOW THE SAME TRACK AS THE FIRST AND SHOULD REACH NRN LWR MI LATE TONIGHT. MODELS ARE AGGRESSIVE IN SWINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO UPPER MI TONIGHT WITH THIS FEATURE. OF PARTICULAR NOTE IS THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THE NAM/GFS SHOW. LOOKING TO THE NE...LOW CIGS ARE NOTED IN AND AROUND JAMES BAY AND EASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH THIS MOISTURE PUSHING SW INTO THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT WHEN DAYTIME HEATING IS ABSENT TO HELP LIFT OR MIX MOISTURE OUT...IT LOOKS FAIRLY LIKELY THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP/EXPAND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY LATE...OVER AT LEAST THE NCNTRL AND E...AIDED BY UPSLOPE FLOW. NAM FCST SOUNDINGS EVEN SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME -DZ/-FZDZ WHERE STRONGEST UPSLOPE OCCURS. WILL BE SOMETHING TO TAKE A LOOK AT AGAIN IN LATER MODEL RUNS. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH SUN NIGHT WILL LEAD TO CLOUD COVER EARLY MON OVER ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL AND ERN CWA. THE CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AS THE SFC RIDGE MOVES BACK IN FROM THE W AS WELL AS THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER RIDGE. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF NCENTRAL UPPER MI...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. INTERIOR W SHOULD SEE HIGHS APPROACH 60F ON MON...WHILE LAKESHORE AND ERN AREAS ARE QUITE A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE UPPER 40S. A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE TUE EVENING AND AGAIN ON WED...WITH MODELS CURRENTLY SHOWING THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE ON WED. MODELS HAVE NOT SHOWN GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THESE FEATURES...SO CONFIDENCE IN EXACT DETAILS IS LOW. HOWEVER...MODEL DO GENERALLY AGREE THAT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP FROM OCCURING. TUE WILL BE WARMER THAN MON WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S AS THE AIRMASS WILL BE WARMER AND THE SHORTWAVE/CLOUD COVER DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. WED COULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT COOLER AIRMASS DEPENDING ON DETAILS WITH THE SHORTWAVE...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. UPPER RIDGING REPLACES THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY THU INTO FRI. MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH CONTINUITY IN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...LIMITED CONFIDENCE SOME. HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE 50S TO MID 60S...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S ON FRI. MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND DISCONTINUITY CERTAINLY CONTINUE AND INCREASE ON SAT AS MODELS VARY VASTLY IN THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER CENTRAL CANADA. MODELS SHOW SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE CWA WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WHICH COULD PRODUCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE SHOWING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. ADDITIONAL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS /ALSO TIED TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE CENTRAL CANADA ENERGY/ WITH TEMPS ON SAT. THE 12Z/25 ECMWF BRINGS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE TO JUST W OF THE CWA BY 00Z SUN WHILE THE 00Z/26 GFS HAS AN UPPER TROUGH WHERE THE ECMWF HAS THE RIDGE. AIRMASS WILL BE A LOT WARMER UNDER THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 12C BY 00Z SUN WHILE THE GFS IS AT 8C. WHILE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH WARMER TEMPS EXISTS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A CONSENSUS APPROACH WITH HIGHS INT HE 60S AND 70S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 AS MORE LLVL MSTR ARRIVES FM THE NE TNGT IN THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...EXPECT LO CLDS TO IMPACT MAINLY CMX AND ESPECIALLY SAW...WHERE THE EXPECTED NNE WIND WL HAVE THE SHARPER UPSLOPE COMPONENT. IFR CIGS SHOULD OCCUR AT SAW FOR A NUMBER OF HRS LATE TNGT THRU MUCH OF MON MRNG. IFR CONDITIONS AT CMX WL ALSO BE PSBL...BUT MAINTAINED PREVIOUS FCST LO MVFR RANGE CONDITIONS FOR NOW. IWD MAY ALSO SEE SOME LO CLDS/MVFR CIGS...BUT DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT AND LOCATION OF WRN EDGE OF THE MORE SGNFT MSTR JUSTIFY ONLY A SCT SKY FCST ATTM. SAW WL SEE THE SLOWEST IMPROVEMENT ON MON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS NOT LIKELY THERE UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THIS FCST PERIOD. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING S THRU WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY THRU MON...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...MOSTLY UNDER 15KT. OVER THE E...WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 20-25KT. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN TUE AND GIVE WAY TO LOW PRES TROF PASSAGE TUE NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...ANOTHER HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE S FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WED/THU. WITH PRES GRADIENT ON THE WEAK SIDE...WINDS TUE THRU THU SHOULD BE UNDER 15KT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME STRONGER WINDS ON WED AS THE HIGH BEGINS RIDGING S INTO THE UPPER LAKES. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...TITUS AVIATION...KC MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
711 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO SRN HUDSON BAY. TO THE SE...A MID LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH ITS BROAD CIRCULATION EXTENDING BACK TO THE UPPER LAKES. TWO SHORTWAVES OF NOTE ARE SWINGING W IN THE MID LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION ACROSS SE CANADA. THE FIRST IS S OF JAMES BAY AND THE SECOND IS N OF MAINE. AT THE SFC... THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS SUPPORTING HIGH PRES RIDGING S FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UNDER DRY AIR MASS PER 00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS...CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FCST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. TO THE NE...FIRST SHORTWAVE S OF JAMES IS HELPING TO SPREAD SCT-BKN CLOUDS TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE S OF JAMES BAY WILL ROTATE INTO NRN LWR MI THIS AFTN/EVENING...SPREADING SOME CLOUDINESS INTO THE ERN FCST AREA TODAY. TRENDS IN THE MODELS SHOW A BACKING OFF ON THE POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON OVERNIGHT SATELLITE IMAGERY. FCST THUS REFLECTS A MORE OPTIMISTIC SKY CONDITION FOR CNTRL UPPER MI TODAY. MAY STILL SEE SOME PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER THE ERN FCST AREA THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY LATE. AS FOR TEMPS...RATHER BRISK GRADIENT FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL HOLD TEMPS TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. MOST LAKESIDE LOCATIONS FROM THE KEWEENAW EASTWARD WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 30S. WELL INLAND...NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS AND PROJECTED MIXING HEIGHTS SUGGEST HIGH TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 50F. THERE MAY BE SOME LWR 50S TOWARD THE MI/WI BORDER FROM MENOMINEE COUNTY TO IRON COUNTY. TONIGHT...SECOND SHORTWAVE NOW N OF MAINE WILL FOLLOW THE SAME TRACK AS THE FIRST AND SHOULD REACH NRN LWR MI LATE TONIGHT. MODELS ARE AGGRESSIVE IN SWINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO UPPER MI TONIGHT WITH THIS FEATURE. OF PARTICULAR NOTE IS THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THE NAM/GFS SHOW. LOOKING TO THE NE...LOW CIGS ARE NOTED IN AND AROUND JAMES BAY AND EASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH THIS MOISTURE PUSHING SW INTO THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT WHEN DAYTIME HEATING IS ABSENT TO HELP LIFT OR MIX MOISTURE OUT...IT LOOKS FAIRLY LIKELY THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP/EXPAND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY LATE...OVER AT LEAST THE NCNTRL AND E...AIDED BY UPSLOPE FLOW. NAM FCST SOUNDINGS EVEN SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME -DZ/-FZDZ WHERE STRONGEST UPSLOPE OCCURS. WILL BE SOMETHING TO TAKE A LOOK AT AGAIN IN LATER MODEL RUNS. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH SUN NIGHT WILL LEAD TO CLOUD COVER EARLY MON OVER ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL AND ERN CWA. THE CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AS THE SFC RIDGE MOVES BACK IN FROM THE W AS WELL AS THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER RIDGE. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF NCENTRAL UPPER MI...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. INTERIOR W SHOULD SEE HIGHS APPROACH 60F ON MON...WHILE LAKESHORE AND ERN AREAS ARE QUITE A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE UPPER 40S. A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE TUE EVENING AND AGAIN ON WED...WITH MODELS CURRENTLY SHOWING THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE ON WED. MODELS HAVE NOT SHOWN GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THESE FEATURES...SO CONFIDENCE IN EXACT DETAILS IS LOW. HOWEVER...MODEL DO GENERALLY AGREE THAT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP FROM OCCURING. TUE WILL BE WARMER THAN MON WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S AS THE AIRMASS WILL BE WARMER AND THE SHORTWAVE/CLOUD COVER DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. WED COULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT COOLER AIRMASS DEPENDING ON DETAILS WITH THE SHORTWAVE...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. UPPER RIDGING REPLACES THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY THU INTO FRI. MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH CONTINUITY IN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...LIMITED CONFIDENCE SOME. HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE 50S TO MID 60S...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S ON FRI. MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND DISCONTINUITY CERTAINLY CONTINUE AND INCREASE ON SAT AS MODELS VARY VASTLY IN THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER CENTRAL CANADA. MODELS SHOW SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE CWA WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WHICH COULD PRODUCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE SHOWING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. ADDITIONAL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS /ALSO TIED TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE CENTRAL CANADA ENERGY/ WITH TEMPS ON SAT. THE 12Z/25 ECMWF BRINGS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE TO JUST W OF THE CWA BY 00Z SUN WHILE THE 00Z/26 GFS HAS AN UPPER TROUGH WHERE THE ECMWF HAS THE RIDGE. AIRMASS WILL BE A LOT WARMER UNDER THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 12C BY 00Z SUN WHILE THE GFS IS AT 8C. WHILE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH WARMER TEMPS EXISTS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A CONSENSUS APPROACH WITH HIGHS INT HE 60S AND 70S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 710 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 FCST CHALLENGE DURING THIS FCST PERIOD WILL BE THE SOUTHWESTWARD PUSH OF MOISTURE/LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE CURRENTLY NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. INITIALLY TODAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS...EXPECT DAYTIME HEATING TO HELP MIX OUT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING TOWARD THE AREA... RESULTING IN PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. TONIGHT...LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MAKE A STRONG PUSH INTO THE AREA. KSAW IS MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED. AIDED BY UPSLOPE FLOW...EXPECT CIGS TO FALL TO IFR THERE DURING THE OVERNIGHT. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT CIGS COULD EVEN FALL TO LIFR. KCMX SHOULD SEE LOW MVFR CIGS... POSSIBLY IFR...DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. FARTHEST W FROM THE MOISTURE SURGE...KIWD MAY STAY VFR TONIGHT...BUT AN IFR CIG IS A POSSIBILITY LATE. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING S THRU WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY THRU MON...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...MOSTLY UNDER 15KT. OVER THE E...WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 20-25KT. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN TUE AND GIVE WAY TO LOW PRES TROF PASSAGE TUE NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...ANOTHER HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE S FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WED/THU. WITH PRES GRADIENT ON THE WEAK SIDE...WINDS TUE THRU THU SHOULD BE UNDER 15KT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME STRONGER WINDS ON WED AS THE HIGH BEGINS RIDGING S INTO THE UPPER LAKES. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...TITUS AVIATION...ROLFSON MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
507 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO SRN HUDSON BAY. TO THE SE...A MID LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH ITS BROAD CIRCULATION EXTENDING BACK TO THE UPPER LAKES. TWO SHORTWAVES OF NOTE ARE SWINGING W IN THE MID LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION ACROSS SE CANADA. THE FIRST IS S OF JAMES BAY AND THE SECOND IS N OF MAINE. AT THE SFC... THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS SUPPORTING HIGH PRES RIDGING S FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UNDER DRY AIR MASS PER 00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS...CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FCST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. TO THE NE...FIRST SHORTWAVE S OF JAMES IS HELPING TO SPREAD SCT-BKN CLOUDS TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE S OF JAMES BAY WILL ROTATE INTO NRN LWR MI THIS AFTN/EVENING...SPREADING SOME CLOUDINESS INTO THE ERN FCST AREA TODAY. TRENDS IN THE MODELS SHOW A BACKING OFF ON THE POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON OVERNIGHT SATELLITE IMAGERY. FCST THUS REFLECTS A MORE OPTIMISTIC SKY CONDITION FOR CNTRL UPPER MI TODAY. MAY STILL SEE SOME PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER THE ERN FCST AREA THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY LATE. AS FOR TEMPS...RATHER BRISK GRADIENT FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL HOLD TEMPS TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. MOST LAKESIDE LOCATIONS FROM THE KEWEENAW EASTWARD WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 30S. WELL INLAND...NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS AND PROJECTED MIXING HEIGHTS SUGGEST HIGH TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 50F. THERE MAY BE SOME LWR 50S TOWARD THE MI/WI BORDER FROM MENOMINEE COUNTY TO IRON COUNTY. TONIGHT...SECOND SHORTWAVE NOW N OF MAINE WILL FOLLOW THE SAME TRACK AS THE FIRST AND SHOULD REACH NRN LWR MI LATE TONIGHT. MODELS ARE AGGRESSIVE IN SWINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO UPPER MI TONIGHT WITH THIS FEATURE. OF PARTICULAR NOTE IS THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THE NAM/GFS SHOW. LOOKING TO THE NE...LOW CIGS ARE NOTED IN AND AROUND JAMES BAY AND EASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH THIS MOISTURE PUSHING SW INTO THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT WHEN DAYTIME HEATING IS ABSENT TO HELP LIFT OR MIX MOISTURE OUT...IT LOOKS FAIRLY LIKELY THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP/EXPAND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY LATE...OVER AT LEAST THE NCNTRL AND E...AIDED BY UPSLOPE FLOW. NAM FCST SOUNDINGS EVEN SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME -DZ/-FZDZ WHERE STRONGEST UPSLOPE OCCURS. WILL BE SOMETHING TO TAKE A LOOK AT AGAIN IN LATER MODEL RUNS. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH SUN NIGHT WILL LEAD TO CLOUD COVER EARLY MON OVER ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL AND ERN CWA. THE CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AS THE SFC RIDGE MOVES BACK IN FROM THE W AS WELL AS THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER RIDGE. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF NCENTRAL UPPER MI...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. INTERIOR W SHOULD SEE HIGHS APPROACH 60F ON MON...WHILE LAKESHORE AND ERN AREAS ARE QUITE A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE UPPER 40S. A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE TUE EVENING AND AGAIN ON WED...WITH MODELS CURRENTLY SHOWING THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE ON WED. MODELS HAVE NOT SHOWN GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THESE FEATURES...SO CONFIDENCE IN EXACT DETAILS IS LOW. HOWEVER...MODEL DO GENERALLY AGREE THAT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP FROM OCCURING. TUE WILL BE WARMER THAN MON WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S AS THE AIRMASS WILL BE WARMER AND THE SHORTWAVE/CLOUD COVER DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. WED COULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT COOLER AIRMASS DEPENDING ON DETAILS WITH THE SHORTWAVE...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. UPPER RIDGING REPLACES THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY THU INTO FRI. MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH CONTINUITY IN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...LIMITED CONFIDENCE SOME. HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE 50S TO MID 60S...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S ON FRI. MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND DISCONTINUITY CERTAINLY CONTINUE AND INCREASE ON SAT AS MODELS VARY VASTLY IN THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER CENTRAL CANADA. MODELS SHOW SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE CWA WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WHICH COULD PRODUCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE SHOWING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. ADDITIONAL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS /ALSO TIED TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE CENTRAL CANADA ENERGY/ WITH TEMPS ON SAT. THE 12Z/25 ECMWF BRINGS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE TO JUST W OF THE CWA BY 00Z SUN WHILE THE 00Z/26 GFS HAS AN UPPER TROUGH WHERE THE ECMWF HAS THE RIDGE. AIRMASS WILL BE A LOT WARMER UNDER THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 12C BY 00Z SUN WHILE THE GFS IS AT 8C. WHILE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH WARMER TEMPS EXISTS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A CONSENSUS APPROACH WITH HIGHS INT HE 60S AND 70S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SLOWLY SHIFT WEST OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW AT ALL THREE TAF SITES UNDER VFR CONDITIONS. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CLOUDS TO DEVELOP UNDER THE LOW LEVEL NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING AND INTO THE DAY AT KSAW AND MAYBE KCMX. SINCE THE LOW CLOUDS IN NORTHERN ONTARIO HAVE STRUGGLED TO EXPAND THUS FAR AND MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER...OPTED TO BACK AWAY FROM THE MVFR CEILINGS AT KSAW FOR EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE STILL KEPT SCT CLOUDS FOR THAT PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING S THRU WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY THRU MON...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...MOSTLY UNDER 15KT. OVER THE E...WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 20-25KT. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN TUE AND GIVE WAY TO LOW PRES TROF PASSAGE TUE NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...ANOTHER HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE S FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WED/THU. WITH PRES GRADIENT ON THE WEAK SIDE...WINDS TUE THRU THU SHOULD BE UNDER 15KT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME STRONGER WINDS ON WED AS THE HIGH BEGINS RIDGING S INTO THE UPPER LAKES. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...TITUS AVIATION...SRF MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1115 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 .UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW... .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 A VERY PLEASANT DAY IS AHEAD WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING STEADY FROM WESTERN ONTARIO THROUGH MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. THE SKY WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TODAY AS WELL AS TONIGHT ALONG WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SIMILAR THOSE ON SATURDAY WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FORECAST...WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SEASONAL NORMAL. THE FORECAST HIGHS TODAY LINE UP WELL WITH MIX-DOWN FROM THE NAM AT 825MB ALONG WITH A SLIGHT SUPER. THE REAL CHALLENGE TODAY IS HOW LOW WILL DEW POINTS DROP... ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL MN...AND THE CORRESPONDING AFTERNOON MINIMUM HUMIDITY. THE LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW BROUGHT DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS INTO NORTHEAST MN SATURDAY EVENING. DEW POINTS NEAR 20 DEGREES ARE NOW PREVALENT ACROSS CENTRAL MN EARLY THIS MORNING. THE NAM AND RAP HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION AND LOWER DEW POINTS TO NEAR 15 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON WITH AROUND 20 HERE IN THE TWIN CITIES AND WEST CENTRAL WI. THIS RESULTS IN NEAR 15 PERCENT MINIMUM HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL MN WITH 20 PERCENT HERE IN THE CITIES AND WEST CENTRAL WI. SOUTHERN AREAS OF MN BOTTOM OUT AROUND 25 PERCENT. FORTUNATELY...THE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING THE FIRE THREAT MAINLY IN THE LIMITED RANGE WITH ELEVATED INDICATED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 MILD TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TAP FOR NEXT WEEK...WITH TWO MOISTURE STARVED FRONTS TRAVERSING THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. THE TROUBLE MAKER FOR MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE THE EVOLUTION OF THE DEEP CLOSED H5 LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND NEXT WEEK. MODEL AGREEMENT IS NOT REALLY ALL THAT BAD UNTIL WE GET TO THURSDAY...WHEN THE GFS STARTS TO BECOME MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PUSHING THIS LOW OUT INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC...WHICH ALLOWS IT TO BECOME CONSIDERABLY MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GEM/ECMWF WITH THE FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS TO END THE WORK WORK GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FOR MODEL PREFERENCES...WENT WITH A FAIRLY EQUAL BLEND THROUGH THURSDAY...LEANING MORE TOWARD THE LESS PROGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE LONG TERM WILL START OFF WITH A PICTURE PERFECT DAY ON MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. MONDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO NORTHERN MN...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA AS WELL. PRECIP POTENTIAL STILL DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT GREAT FOR THIS FRONT...WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS KEEPING ANY MEANINGFUL MOISTURE WELL OF TO OUR SOUTH...WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY LOOKING WEAK AS WELL. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE AND THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP IT GENERATES AND CONTINUED THE TREND OF FAVORING A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THIS FRONT...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS MENTIONED. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL FEATURE ANOTHER DRY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO BLENDED FORECAST HERE WAS TO LOWER DEWPOINTS SOME BOTH DAYS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MIXING POTENTIAL. ALSO BLENDED IN SOME BIAS CORRECTED NUMBERS INTO THE HIGHS BOTH DAYS TO BOOST THEM BY A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY...WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED FOR WED/THU. NEXT ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED COMES FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THE NEW ENGLAND H5 LOW MENTIONED IN THE SECOND PARAGRAPH...THE GFS IS QUITE A BIT FASTER WITH BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH THAN THE ECMWF. THIS SPREAD IN THE FRONTS TIMING EXPLAINS THE NICE SMEARING OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONT DOES HAVE A COUPLE OF FACTORS THAT CAN GIVE ONE A LITTLE BIT MORE HOPE FOR SEEING PRECIP WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS OPPOSED TO THE ONE FOR MONDAY NIGHT. NUMBER ONE...THERE WILL BE NO UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS INTERCEPTING MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH. ALSO MAKING THE PRECIP POTENTIAL LOOK SLIGHTLY BETTER IS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE LOOKS BETTER ON FRIDAY AND THIS FRONT ACTUALLY HAS SOME H85 FLOW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT OUT AHEAD OF IT. STILL...THE AIRMASS IT WILL BE DISPLACING AGAIN LOOKS INCREDIBLY DRY AND WITH INSTABILITY LACKING...ANYTHING WE DO SEE LOOKS PRETTY LIGHT AT THIS POINT. AS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS NEXT WEEK...HUMIDITIES EACH AFTERNOON LOOK TO GET DOWN INTO THE 20S/30S. WINDS STILL LOOK LIGHT THOUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT THURSDAY AND FRI WILL FEATURE STRONGER WINDS AND IF THE MOISTURE RETURN ENDS UP BEING RATHER LACKING...WE COULD HAVE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN. AT THIS POINT...THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DAY THAT HAS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL TO GENERATE RED FLAG CONDITIONS AS OUR SE WINDS WILL BE EMANATING FROM A VERY DRY SFC RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES....WHILE FRIDAY AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO FEATURE HIGHER DEWPS WITH THE PASSING FRONT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1105 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 VFR/SKC THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES. LIGHT NE WINDS BECOMING SE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF HE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. KMSP.. WIND IS THE ONLY PROBLEM THIS PERIOD. SHOULD SEE A MORE NE COMPONENT DEVELOP WITH MIX THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN LIGHT NORTH INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON NIGHT...VFR. WINDS N 5 KTS. TUE...VFR. SLGT CHC OF MRNG -SHRA. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS. WED...VFR. WIND N 5-10 KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RAH LONG TERM...MPG AVIATION...DWE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
630 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 A VERY PLEASANT DAY IS AHEAD WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING STEADY FROM WESTERN ONTARIO THROUGH MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. THE SKY WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TODAY AS WELL AS TONIGHT ALONG WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SIMILAR THOSE ON SATURDAY WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FORECAST...WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SEASONAL NORMAL. THE FORECAST HIGHS TODAY LINE UP WELL WITH MIX-DOWN FROM THE NAM AT 825MB ALONG WITH A SLIGHT SUPER. THE REAL CHALLENGE TODAY IS HOW LOW WILL DEW POINTS DROP... ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL MN...AND THE CORRESPONDING AFTERNOON MINIMUM HUMIDITY. THE LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW BROUGHT DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS INTO NORTHEAST MN SATURDAY EVENING. DEW POINTS NEAR 20 DEGREES ARE NOW PREVALENT ACROSS CENTRAL MN EARLY THIS MORNING. THE NAM AND RAP HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION AND LOWER DEW POINTS TO NEAR 15 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON WITH AROUND 20 HERE IN THE TWIN CITIES AND WEST CENTRAL WI. THIS RESULTS IN NEAR 15 PERCENT MINIMUM HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL MN WITH 20 PERCENT HERE IN THE CITIES AND WEST CENTRAL WI. SOUTHERN AREAS OF MN BOTTOM OUT AROUND 25 PERCENT. FORTUNATELY...THE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING THE FIRE THREAT MAINLY IN THE LIMITED RANGE WITH ELEVATED INDICATED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 MILD TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TAP FOR NEXT WEEK...WITH TWO MOISTURE STARVED FRONTS TRAVERSING THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. THE TROUBLE MAKER FOR MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE THE EVOLUTION OF THE DEEP CLOSED H5 LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND NEXT WEEK. MODEL AGREEMENT IS NOT REALLY ALL THAT BAD UNTIL WE GET TO THURSDAY...WHEN THE GFS STARTS TO BECOME MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PUSHING THIS LOW OUT INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC...WHICH ALLOWS IT TO BECOME CONSIDERABLY MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GEM/ECMWF WITH THE FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS TO END THE WORK WORK GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FOR MODEL PREFERENCES...WENT WITH A FAIRLY EQUAL BLEND THROUGH THURSDAY...LEANING MORE TOWARD THE LESS PROGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE LONG TERM WILL START OFF WITH A PICTURE PERFECT DAY ON MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. MONDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO NORTHERN MN...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA AS WELL. PRECIP POTENTIAL STILL DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT GREAT FOR THIS FRONT...WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS KEEPING ANY MEANINGFUL MOISTURE WELL OF TO OUR SOUTH...WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY LOOKING WEAK AS WELL. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE AND THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP IT GENERATES AND CONTINUED THE TREND OF FAVORING A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THIS FRONT...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS MENTIONED. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL FEATURE ANOTHER DRY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO BLENDED FORECAST HERE WAS TO LOWER DEWPOINTS SOME BOTH DAYS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MIXING POTENTIAL. ALSO BLENDED IN SOME BIAS CORRECTED NUMBERS INTO THE HIGHS BOTH DAYS TO BOOST THEM BY A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY...WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED FOR WED/THU. NEXT ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED COMES FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THE NEW ENGLAND H5 LOW MENTIONED IN THE SECOND PARAGRAPH...THE GFS IS QUITE A BIT FASTER WITH BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH THAN THE ECMWF. THIS SPREAD IN THE FRONTS TIMING EXPLAINS THE NICE SMEARING OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONT DOES HAVE A COUPLE OF FACTORS THAT CAN GIVE ONE A LITTLE BIT MORE HOPE FOR SEEING PRECIP WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS OPPOSED TO THE ONE FOR MONDAY NIGHT. NUMBER ONE...THERE WILL BE NO UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS INTERCEPTING MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH. ALSO MAKING THE PRECIP POTENTIAL LOOK SLIGHTLY BETTER IS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE LOOKS BETTER ON FRIDAY AND THIS FRONT ACTUALLY HAS SOME H85 FLOW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT OUT AHEAD OF IT. STILL...THE AIRMASS IT WILL BE DISPLACING AGAIN LOOKS INCREDIBLY DRY AND WITH INSTABILITY LACKING...ANYTHING WE DO SEE LOOKS PRETTY LIGHT AT THIS POINT. AS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS NEXT WEEK...HUMIDITIES EACH AFTERNOON LOOK TO GET DOWN INTO THE 20S/30S. WINDS STILL LOOK LIGHT THOUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT THURSDAY AND FRI WILL FEATURE STRONGER WINDS AND IF THE MOISTURE RETURN ENDS UP BEING RATHER LACKING...WE COULD HAVE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN. AT THIS POINT...THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DAY THAT HAS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL TO GENERATE RED FLAG CONDITIONS AS OUR SE WINDS WILL BE EMANATING FROM A VERY DRY SFC RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES....WHILE FRIDAY AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO FEATURE HIGHER DEWPS WITH THE PASSING FRONT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 VFR/SKC THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS MN/WI FROM ONTARIO. NORTHERLY WINDS 5-8 KTS TODAY ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI WITH EASTERLY WINDS 5-8 KTS ACROSS WESTERN MN. KMSP..FEW CONCERNS THIS TAF CYCLE AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS. THE WIND WILL MEANDER AROUND SOME THIS MORNING FROM 050 TO 080 AT 5 KTS OR LESS THEN BECOME MORE 030 AT 8 KTS FOR THE AFTERNOON. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. WINDS N 5-10 KTS. TUE...VFR. SLGT CHC OF MRNG -SHRA. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS. WED...VFR. WIND N 5-10 KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RAH LONG TERM...MPG AVIATION...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
350 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 A VERY PLEASANT DAY IS AHEAD WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING STEADY FROM WESTERN ONTARIO THROUGH MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. THE SKY WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TODAY AS WELL AS TONIGHT ALONG WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SIMILAR THOSE ON SATURDAY WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FORECAST...WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SEASONAL NORMAL. THE FORECAST HIGHS TODAY LINE UP WELL WITH MIX-DOWN FROM THE NAM AT 825MB ALONG WITH A SLIGHT SUPER. THE REAL CHALLENGE TODAY IS HOW LOW WILL DEW POINTS DROP... ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL MN...AND THE CORRESPONDING AFTERNOON MINIMUM HUMIDITY. THE LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW BROUGHT DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS INTO NORTHEAST MN SATURDAY EVENING. DEW POINTS NEAR 20 DEGREES ARE NOW PREVALENT ACROSS CENTRAL MN EARLY THIS MORNING. THE NAM AND RAP HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION AND LOWER DEW POINTS TO NEAR 15 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON WITH AROUND 20 HERE IN THE TWIN CITIES AND WEST CENTRAL WI. THIS RESULTS IN NEAR 15 PERCENT MINIMUM HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL MN WITH 20 PERCENT HERE IN THE CITIES AND WEST CENTRAL WI. SOUTHERN AREAS OF MN BOTTOM OUT AROUND 25 PERCENT. FORTUNATELY...THE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING THE FIRE THREAT MAINLY IN THE LIMITED RANGE WITH ELEVATED INDICATED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 MILD TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TAP FOR NEXT WEEK...WITH TWO MOISTURE STARVED FRONTS TRAVERSING THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. THE TROUBLE MAKER FOR MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE THE EVOLUTION OF THE DEEP CLOSED H5 LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND NEXT WEEK. MODEL AGREEMENT IS NOT REALLY ALL THAT BAD UNTIL WE GET TO THURSDAY...WHEN THE GFS STARTS TO BECOME MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PUSHING THIS LOW OUT INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC...WHICH ALLOWS IT TO BECOME CONSIDERABLY MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GEM/ECMWF WITH THE FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS TO END THE WORK WORK GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FOR MODEL PREFERENCES...WENT WITH A FAIRLY EQUAL BLEND THROUGH THURSDAY...LEANING MORE TOWARD THE LESS PROGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE LONG TERM WILL START OFF WITH A PICTURE PERFECT DAY ON MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. MONDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO NORTHERN MN...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA AS WELL. PRECIP POTENTIAL STILL DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT GREAT FOR THIS FRONT...WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS KEEPING ANY MEANINGFUL MOISTURE WELL OF TO OUR SOUTH...WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY LOOKING WEAK AS WELL. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE AND THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP IT GENERATES AND CONTINUED THE TREND OF FAVORING A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THIS FRONT...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS MENTIONED. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL FEATURE ANOTHER DRY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO BLENDED FORECAST HERE WAS TO LOWER DEWPOINTS SOME BOTH DAYS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MIXING POTENTIAL. ALSO BLENDED IN SOME BIAS CORRECTED NUMBERS INTO THE HIGHS BOTH DAYS TO BOOST THEM BY A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY...WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED FOR WED/THU. NEXT ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED COMES FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THE NEW ENGLAND H5 LOW MENTIONED IN THE SECOND PARAGRAPH...THE GFS IS QUITE A BIT FASTER WITH BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH THAN THE ECMWF. THIS SPREAD IN THE FRONTS TIMING EXPLAINS THE NICE SMEARING OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONT DOES HAVE A COUPLE OF FACTORS THAT CAN GIVE ONE A LITTLE BIT MORE HOPE FOR SEEING PRECIP WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS OPPOSED TO THE ONE FOR MONDAY NIGHT. NUMBER ONE...THERE WILL BE NO UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS INTERCEPTING MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH. ALSO MAKING THE PRECIP POTENTIAL LOOK SLIGHTLY BETTER IS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE LOOKS BETTER ON FRIDAY AND THIS FRONT ACTUALLY HAS SOME H85 FLOW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT OUT AHEAD OF IT. STILL...THE AIRMASS IT WILL BE DISPLACING AGAIN LOOKS INCREDIBLY DRY AND WITH INSTABILITY LACKING...ANYTHING WE DO SEE LOOKS PRETTY LIGHT AT THIS POINT. AS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS NEXT WEEK...HUMIDITIES EACH AFTERNOON LOOK TO GET DOWN INTO THE 20S/30S. WINDS STILL LOOK LIGHT THOUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT THURSDAY AND FRI WILL FEATURE STRONGER WINDS AND IF THE MOISTURE RETURN ENDS UP BEING RATHER LACKING...WE COULD HAVE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN. AT THIS POINT...THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DAY THAT HAS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL TO GENERATE RED FLAG CONDITIONS AS OUR SE WINDS WILL BE EMANATING FROM A VERY DRY SFC RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES....WHILE FRIDAY AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO FEATURE HIGHER DEWPS WITH THE PASSING FRONT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1029 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015 VFR CONDS THROUGHOUT THIS TAF SET. SKC CONDS WILL PREVAIL THRU TMRW EVE. E TO NE WINDS WILL SETTLE CLOSE TO 5 KT OVERNIGHT THEN INCRS TO THE 5-10 KT RANGE DURG THE DAY TMRW. KMSP...NO SIGNIFICANT WX IMPACTS EXPECTED THIS TAF SET. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. WINDS NNE 5-10 KT. TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KT. WED...VFR. WIND N 5-10 KT. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RAH LONG TERM...MPG AVIATION...JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1051 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE A STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA MID WEEK. SEASONABLE AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1045 AM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT IS VERY WELL DEFINED IN BOTH RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...AS WELL AS SURFACE OBS. FRONT IS STILL CREEPING SOUTHWARD AND IS JUST SOUTH OF A LINE ROUGHLY FROM OAK ISLAND TO FLORENCE SC. A THICK BLANKET OF STRATUS FOLLOWS NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH NO PRECIP PRESENT. FOR THIS MORNING...HAVE DROPPED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGHOUT AND CHANGED CHARACTER OF PRECIPITATION TO RAIN/DRIZZLE. THIS IS BASED ON AN ANALYSIS OF THE LATEST DATA...WHICH SHOWS A VERY STABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE OF ANY CONVECTION REMAINS OVER OUR SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHEST AND CLOUD COVER WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY OVERCAST. EVEN THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE A LOW-END PROBABILITY THOUGH. WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT TEMPS FOR TODAY WITH AN EYE TOWARDS LOWERING THEM BY A CATEGORY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: TODAY A MIXED BAG OF WEATHER FEATURES RANGING FROM FOG TO SHOWERS TO A FEW AFTERNOON TSTMS TO A MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL OF NEARLY 20 DEGREES FROM THE NORTHERN INTERIOR OF SE NC TO SOUTHERN INLAND SC. NIGHT-TIME IMAGERY SHOWS WELL THE POST-FRONTAL STRATUS NORTH OF AN E TO W COLD FRONT WHICH PRESENTLY BI-SECTS OUR AREA. THIS FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH AFTERNOON. STRONG LATE APRIL SUN WILL HEAT THE LOW- LEVELS OVER INLAND SC IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IN THE NEAR PEAK OF DIURNAL WARMING...SPARKING A CHANCE AT TSTMS. ALTHOUGH DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE VERTICAL GROWTH OF CELLS...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND SWIFT SEAWARD MOTION COULD BRING POTENTIALLY GUSTY WINDS TO SEVERE LIMITS...AND SPC PAINTS A MARGINAL RISK OF STORMS OVER SC. DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR FROM THE NORTH WINS OUT LATER TONIGHT AS TD VALUES DROP...WITH POST FRONTAL COOL AIR ADVECTION STABILIZING THE LOW-LEVELS AS WELL. POP VALUES DWINDLE AND PARTIAL CLEARING WILL TREND INTO EARLY MONDAY. RELATIVELY COOL MINIMUMS MONDAY OF UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOW TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH...AND THE BEACHES. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS MONDAY AS A DEEP MID TO UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND RETROGRADES BACK TOWARD THE WEST SOUTHWEST BEFORE PULLING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE TUES. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS EARLY MONDAY WILL BE SCOURED OUT BY A DEEP NW FLOW OF DRY AND RELATIVELY COOLER AIR OVER THE AREA HOLDING ON THROUGH TUES. PCP WATER VALUES REMAIN DOWN CLOSE TO A HALF INCH MON AFTN THROUGH TUES AFTN. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO OFFSET THE CAA WITH 850 TEMPS HOLD AROUND 4 TO 5 C THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL EXPECT LARGE DIURNAL SWINGS IN TEMPS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING DOWN BELOW 50 IN MANY SPOTS ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY TUES NIGHT. TEMPS WILL MAKE A RUN BACK TOWARD NORMAL BUT WILL FALL SHORT AFTER SUCH A COOL START TO THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL START INCREASING BY TUES NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES SPREADING CLOUDS AND PCP NORTHWARD. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY....LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES ON WED. A SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE DOWN FROM THE UPPER MID WEST AMPLIFYING THE H5 TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE EAST COAST REACHING DOWN INTO THE GULF. THIS SHOULD GUIDE THE LOW UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST POSSIBLY MOVING DIRECTLY OVER THE CAPE FEAR COAST WED NIGHT INTO THURS MORNING. N-NE FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL BE OVERRUN BY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT PRODUCING INCREASING CLOUDS AND PCP OVER THE AREA ON WED INTO THURS. THIS LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BUT DEEP MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH FRI. WILL SEE COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND CHC OF PCP IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURS AND SOME CLOUDS THROUGH FRI AS THIS DEEP LOW FINALLY MAKES ITS WAY OFF TO THE EAST. SHOULD SEE A WARMING AND DRYING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 12Z...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA. TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY...MAINLY BASED ON THE HRRR MODEL. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS WITH THE FRONT OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. MAY BE A BIT TOO PESSIMISTIC THIS EVENING AND WILL ADJUST ON THE NEXT SET. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1045 AM SUNDAY...HAVE DROPPED SCEC HEADLINES WITH THE LATEST UPDATE AS SEAS ARE NOW IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE WITH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: BLUSTERY OFFSHORE WINDS TO PREVAIL THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT. SEAS RUNNING 4-5 FT THIS MORNING AND AN EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...CURRENTLY SET TO EXPIRE AT NOON. DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN MAY REDUCE VSBYS 4NM OR LESS THIS MORNING N OF CAPE FEAR. HEATING OVER INLAND SC THIS AFTERNOON COULD BRING A FEW STORMS OVER THE SC WATERS...POTENTIALLY BRING GUSTY WINDS AND SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED OVER SC LATER TODAY. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON AS NW WINDS ABATE...BUT COULD KICK UP AGAIN TONIGHT AS N WINDS INCREASE A BIT. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH MON WITH DECENT SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS AS SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND MID TO UPPER TROUGH EXITING SLOWLY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER AROUND BECOMING MORE ON SHORE BY TUES NIGHT AROUND LOW PRESSURE AS IT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE GULF COAST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT MOST OF THE TIME BUT MAY REACH UP TO 5 FT IN NORTHERLY SURGE MON NIGHT. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS WAY UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD POSSIBLY TRACKING RIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS FROM SW TO NE WED NIGHT INTO THURS. WINDS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP NORTHERLY FLOW OVER MOST OF LOCAL WATERS INCREASING UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS LATE WED WITH A STRONG E-SE SWELL ON FRONT END OF SYSTEM POSSIBLY DRIVING SEAS UP TOWARD SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH WED NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET TO START WITH SPIKE WED NIGHT INTO THURS. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RGZ NEAR TERM...MJC/REK SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...DL MARINE...MJC/REK/RGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
642 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE A STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA MID WEEK. SEASONABLE AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 628 AM SUNDAY...TODAY A MIXED BAG OF WEATHER FEATURES RANGING FROM FOG TO SHOWERS TO A FEW AFTERNOON TSTMS TO A MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL OF NEARLY 20 DEGREES FROM THE NORTHERN INTERIOR OF SE NC TO SOUTHERN INLAND SC. NIGHT-TIME IMAGERY SHOWS WELL THE POST-FRONTAL STRATUS NORTH OF AN E TO W COLD FRONT WHICH PRESENTLY BI-SECTS OUR AREA. THIS FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH AFTERNOON. STRONG LATE APRIL SUN WILL HEAT THE LOW- LEVELS OVER INLAND SC IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IN THE NEAR PEAK OF DIURNAL WARMING...SPARKING A CHANCE AT TSTMS. ALTHOUGH DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE VERTICAL GROWTH OF CELLS...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND SWIFT SEAWARD MOTION COULD BRING POTENTIALLY GUSTY WINDS TO SEVERE LIMITS...AND SPC PAINTS A MARGINAL RISK OF STORMS OVER SC. DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR FROM THE NORTH WINS OUT LATER TONIGHT AS TD VALUES DROP...WITH POST FRONTAL COOL AIR ADVECTION STABILIZING THE LOW-LEVELS AS WELL. POP VALUES DWINDLE AND PARTIAL CLEARING WILL TREND INTO EARLY MONDAY. RELATIVELY COOL MINIMUMS MONDAY OF UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOW TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH...AND THE BEACHES. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS MONDAY AS A DEEP MID TO UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND RETROGRADES BACK TOWARD THE WEST SOUTHWEST BEFORE PULLING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE TUES. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS EARLY MONDAY WILL BE SCOURED OUT BY A DEEP NW FLOW OF DRY AND RELATIVELY COOLER AIR OVER THE AREA HOLDING ON THROUGH TUES. PCP WATER VALUES REMAIN DOWN CLOSE TO A HALF INCH MON AFTN THROUGH TUES AFTN. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO OFFSET THE CAA WITH 850 TEMPS HOLD AROUND 4 TO 5 C THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL EXPECT LARGE DIURNAL SWINGS IN TEMPS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING DOWN BELOW 50 IN MANY SPOTS ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY TUES NIGHT. TEMPS WILL MAKE A RUN BACK TOWARD NORMAL BUT WILL FALL SHORT AFTER SUCH A COOL START TO THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL START INCREASING BY TUES NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES SPREADING CLOUDS AND PCP NORTHWARD. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY....LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES ON WED. A SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE DOWN FROM THE UPPER MID WEST AMPLIFYING THE H5 TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE EAST COAST REACHING DOWN INTO THE GULF. THIS SHOULD GUIDE THE LOW UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST POSSIBLY MOVING DIRECTLY OVER THE CAPE FEAR COAST WED NIGHT INTO THURS MORNING. N-NE FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL BE OVERRUN BY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT PRODUCING INCREASING CLOUDS AND PCP OVER THE AREA ON WED INTO THURS. THIS LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BUT DEEP MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH FRI. WILL SEE COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND CHC OF PCP IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURS AND SOME CLOUDS THROUGH FRI AS THIS DEEP LOW FINALLY MAKES ITS WAY OFF TO THE EAST. SHOULD SEE A WARMING AND DRYING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 12Z...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA. TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY...MAINLY BASED ON THE HRRR MODEL. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS WITH THE FRONT OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. MAY BE A BIT TOO PESSIMISTIC THIS EVENING AND WILL ADJUST ON THE NEXT SET. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 628 AM SUNDAY...BLUSTERY OFFSHORE WINDS TO PREVAIL THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT. SEAS RUNNING 4-5 FT THIS MORNING AND AN EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...CURRENTLY SET TO EXPIRE AT NOON. DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN MAY REDUCE VSBYS 4NM OR LESS THIS MORNING N OF CAPE FEAR. HEATING OVER INLAND SC THIS AFTERNOON COULD BRING A FEW STORMS OVER THE SC WATERS...POTENTIALLY BRING GUSTY WINDS AND SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED OVER SC LATER TODAY. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON AS NW WINDS ABATE...BUT COULD KICK UP AGAIN TONIGHT AS N WINDS INCREASE A BIT. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH MON WITH DECENT SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS AS SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND MID TO UPPER TROUGH EXITING SLOWLY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER AROUND BECOMING MORE ON SHORE BY TUES NIGHT AROUND LOW PRESSURE AS IT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE GULF COAST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT MOST OF THE TIME BUT MAY REACH UP TO 5 FT IN NORTHERLY SURGE MON NIGHT. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS WAY UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD POSSIBLY TRACKING RIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS FROM SW TO NE WED NIGHT INTO THURS. WINDS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP NORTHERLY FLOW OVER MOST OF LOCAL WATERS INCREASING UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS LATE WED WITH A STRONG E-SE SWELL ON FRONT END OF SYSTEM POSSIBLY DRIVING SEAS UP TOWARD SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH WED NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET TO START WITH SPIKE WED NIGHT INTO THURS. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1258 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THEN OFFSHORE SUNDAY...PULLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1255 AM SUNDAY...SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OFF OF THE COAST AS OF 0445Z AND NOW THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WILL LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND CALL FOR PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER. PATCHES OF FOG ARE ALSO EXPECTED BUT NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT. UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER EASTERN TN/KY AND SOUTHWEST VA IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN OF EASTERN NC AROUND 10Z SUNDAY. WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY MOST ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BASED ON LATEST HRRR RUN AND CONSENSUS OF THE 00Z GFS/NAM MODELS. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF OF THE NC LATE TONIGHT WILL REINFORCE THE HIGH PRES WEDGE EAST OF THE MTNS WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPS MAY FALL A FEW DEGS FROM CURRENT LEVELS WITH LOWS FROM AROUND 50 N TO UPR 50S S EXPECTED. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...LOW PRES DEEPENING OFFSHORE WILL PULL COLD FRONT THROUGH AREA FROM N BY EARLY AFTN...AND MODELS INDICATE WDPSRD LIGHT QPF THREAT 12Z-18Z. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY MOST OF AREA FOR MORNING. CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL HOLD TEMPS TO UPR 50S NRN SECTIONS WHILE SRN SECTIONS MAY REACH UPR 60S BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 PM SAT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW SUN NIGHT INTO WED...WHILE SFC LOW PUSHES ENE OFF THE NC COAST SUN NIGHT AND MON. PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY SUN EVENING AS LOW PUSHES FURTHER OFF THE COAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 60S THROUGH THU...AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 40S TO MID 50S. VERT STACKED LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE NE US WILL LINGER THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...GRADUALLY RETROGRADING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH MID-WEEK. PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH MON AND TUE. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS MON AND TUE...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER GIVEN THE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT. LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE MID TO LATE WEEK...AND BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONTINUES. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TUE...THEN MOVE UP THE SE COAST WED INTO THU. ECMWF CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A MUCH STRONGER LOW...BOMBING OUT OFF THE NC COAST. WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A MUCH WEAKER LOW...KEEPING IT SUPPRESSED FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OF NC OFF THE SE COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW TRENDS OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WPC...WITH A WEAK LOW MOVING OFF THE COAST LATE WED INTO THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CAP POPS AT 50 PERCENT WED AND THU GIVEN THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY. ADDITIONAL IMPACTS COULD BE FELT ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEEK...DEPENDENT ON EVENTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW. TEMPS GRADUALLY MODERATE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... ASOF 1255 AM SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A STALLED FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND REINFORCE THE HIGH PRES WEDGE PATTERN INLAND. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE IFR RANGE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THEN LIFT TO MVFR UNTIL AROUND 00Z WHEN CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPPROVE TO VFR. SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WELL TO THE WEST LATE TONIGHT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES 11-15Z SUNDAY MORNING OTHERWISE EXPECTING ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 3 PM SAT...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LINGER SUN NIGHT GRADUALLY IMPROVING BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PRED VFR MON THROUGH TUE NIGHT. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WED AND THU...WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR POSSIBLE AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE REGION. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 1255 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING. LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ALONG STALLED BNDRY OVER FAR SOUTHERN WATERS LATE THIS EVENING MAINTAINING A LIGHT TO MODERATE NE/E FLOW NORTH OF THE BNDRY. THE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST EARLY SUNDAY AND GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD N TO S OVER WATERS AS LOW DEEPENS OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. USED MODEL BLEND TOWARD WEAKER GFS AND ECMWF...BUT WILL POST SCA FOR NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT LIKELY IN AFTN...AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 6 FT LATE. LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 3 PM SAT...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS 15-25KT AND ELEVATED SEAS 4-7FT WILL START OFF THE PERIOD SUN NIGHT. SURGE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING MON MORNING WITH SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO 3-5FT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW SUN NIGHT THROUGH MID- WEEK. GRADIENT TIGHTENS MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE...AND MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING NWLY SURGE 15-25KT WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6FT ON THE OUTER WATERS. PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY...MAINLY NORTH OF OCRACOKE. LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE MID TO LATE WEEK...AND BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONTINUES. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TUE...THEN MOVE UP THE SE COAST WED INTO THU. INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WED AND THU. ELY FLOW BY WED AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO 10-20KT WED NIGHT WITH SEAS 2-4FT. STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED THU WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6FT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOWER THAN AVERAGE FOR WED AND THU...BUT SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DEVELOP WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW PRESSURE. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-156. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JBM NEAR TERM...JME/BTC/JBM SHORT TERM...JBM LONG TERM...CQD AVIATION...JME/CQD MARINE...JME/JBM/CQD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1139 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015 NO CHANGES TO 10 PM UPDATE PLANNED. UPDATE FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION ONLY. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015 FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOWS. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE DOING WELL WITH INHERITED MINIMUM TEMP FCST SO HAVE USED RUC FOR GUIDANCE ON WIND AND HOURLY TEMPS. ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY MADE AT 7 PM WORKED OUT WELL SO NO FURTHER CHANGES EXPECTED. UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015 FORECAST UPDATE WILL ADDRESS MINOR SKY ISSUES...WITH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA CLEARING OUT A BIT MORE RAPIDLY THAN PREV FCST INDICATED. WITH MID LVL DECK WELL OFF TO WEST...WILL DECREASE SKY OVER ERN ND THROUGH THE NIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015 TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE PERIOD. CLOUDS HAVE MOVED MOSTLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER AS DRIER AIR HAS BEEN COMING IN FROM THE EAST UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME CU REDEVELOPMENT IN THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE MINNESOTA SIDE HAS BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA STILL SOCKED IN WITH STRATUS. THE RAP 925-850MB RH FIELD HAS BEEN DOING DECENT WITH THE CLOUD COVER...AND IT HAS THE HIGHER RH VALUES SLOWLY MOVING WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS COMING IN THROUGH WESTERN ND AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THINK THE CLOUDS AND WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE 40S WHILE THE EAST WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...DROPPING DOWN BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO COME IN AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO OUR NORTHEAST. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ENTERING CENTRAL ND...BUT ALL HAVE THE PRECIP ALONG THAT BOUNDARY DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES EAST. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVE THE DRY ENVIRONMENT AND NOT MUCH UPPER FORCING...SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHER CLOUDS AND A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MASS. KEPT READINGS IN THE 60S. SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS INTO SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WITH THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO THE FAR WESTERN CWA. THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...BUT IT WILL BE FIGHTING AGAINST CONTINUED DRY AIR COMING IN FROM THE SFC HIGH TO THE EAST. INCLUDED SOME SHOWERS GETTING INTO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT THINK THAT THE BULK OF PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015 MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK SFC TROUGH AXIS INTO THE CWA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME GOOD Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE FOR RISING MOTION. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS HIGH THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AXIS...WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED. LEANED TOWARDS THE DRIER GFS/NAM RATHER THAN THE WETTER INTERNATIONAL MODELS GIVEN THE TENDENCY LATELY FOR OVERDOING RAIN. WE SHOULD DRY OUT BY TUESDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S IN MOST OF THE CWA BUT THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES COULD STAY IN THE 50S WITH RAIN COMING IN EARLIER. MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. GEM NOT SHOWING AS STRONG A RIDGE AS THE OUTLIER...SO FAVORED AN ECMWF/GFS BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST. THUS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ON THE WARMER SIDE...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY REACHING CLOSE TO THE MID 70S. OTHERWISE...THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015 SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP DRY CONDS IN THE AERODROMES FOR THE VALLEY AND SITES IN MINNESOTA. A LINE OF SHOWERS OVER CNTRL ND MAY GET INTO DVL AREA TOMORROW EVENING...BUT DRY AIR MASS WILL HELP HOLD THOSE SHOWERS BACK. PUT A MENTION (VCSH) IN FOR TOMORROW EVENING AS CONFIDENCE OF ON STATION PRECIP IS TOO LOW THIS FAR OUT. CIGS LIKELY WILL BE VFR OR UPPER MVFR RANGE TOMORROW EVENING. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SPEICHER SHORT TERM...JR LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS AVIATION...SPEICHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
913 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015 ...UPDATE... .DISCUSSION... CONSISTENT CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE HRRR VALIDATE LEAVING THE CURRENT HIGH POPS AS THEY ARE IN THE FORECAST. INTERESTINGLY... THERE CONTINUES TO BE A FAIRLY STEEP GRADIENT OF POPS ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS IS WELL REPRESENTED IN THE CURRENT RADAR DATA AS DRY AIR MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS APPEAR TO REMAIN ON TRACK AS WELL... SO WILL ONLY UPDATE THE ZFP TO IMPROVE THE WORDING AT THIS TIME. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/ AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NE OK W/ A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEARER KMLC. VFR TO PERIODIC MVFR CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE EVENING. PRECIP WILL EXPAND AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUES MORNING WITH LOWERING CEILINGS FOR SE OK / WESTERN AR. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/ DISCUSSION... A LARGE RAIN SHIELD IS ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AT THIS HOUR AS A MID-LEVEL LOW SPINS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THE RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL TAPER ON TUESDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND AN INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH. THERE COULD BE A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THAT COULD SEE UPWARDS OF THREE INCHES OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH COULD LEAD LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REIGNS SUPREME. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ALSO TAKE PLACE DURING THIS TIME-FRAME. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND AS THE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...06
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
642 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015 .DISCUSSION... THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.... && .AVIATION... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...BOTH CENTERED OVER WEST-CENTRAL TX...WILL DRIFT E/SE OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE CURRENTLY-COMMA-SHAPED AREA OF RAIN...LOW CLOUDS...AND LOW VISIBILITIES WILL FLATTEN INTO AN E-W BAND OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...LYING ROUGHLY ALONG I-40 BY MID-MORNING. OTHER AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST IN SW OK AND N TX. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED TSRA WILL OCCUR IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF KSPS THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE UNLIKELY TO AFFECT THE FIELD ITSELF. CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS/VISIBILITIES/RAIN WILL OCCUR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES...AND WILL BEGIN IN THE W...THEN WORK E WITH TIME. THE N EXTENT OF THE LOW CEILINGS/ETC. WILL REACH NEAR THE KS BORDER THIS EVENING...THEN RECEDE SLOWLY S OVERNIGHT. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT DETAILS OF THE TAFS...TIMING/HEIGHTS/VISIBILITIES...IS VERY LOW...AS IS TYPICAL OF THIS TYPE OF COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM. CMS && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/ DISCUSSION... PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON CONTINUING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THROUGH 19Z... THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRANSITION EASTWARD ACROSS WRN N TX... AS THE H5 LOW CONTINUES TO CHURN ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. EVIDENT ON WV... DECENT DIFFLUENCE IS NOTED ACROSS NRN TX INTO THE ARKLATEX... WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER S CENTRAL/SERN OK. RAIN CONTINUES TO LIFT SLOWLY N/NE OUT OF SWRN OK/WRN N TX... WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND EXTENDING FROM WEST CENTRAL OK INTO NRN TX ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SFC TROUGH/WARM FRONT. ALTHOUGH RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS SWRN OK/WRN N TX FOR THE MEANTIME... EXPECT LIGHT RAIN/SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BUILD BACK IN LATTER TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. THE HRRR HAS DONE A DECENT JOB WITH THE OVERALL EVOLUTION... AND COMPARED TO THE VARIOUS FLAVORS OF WRF ONE CAN CHOOSE FROM... TIMING FOR A RETURN TO SHOWERS ACROSS WRN N TX AND SWRN OK WOULD BE SOMEWHERE AROUND MIDNIGHT. DISCLAIMER... ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TONIGHT ACROSS SAID AREA WILL NOT HAVE THE SUBSTANCE OF EARLIER TODAY... THEREFORE... HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. OVERALL... EXPECT MOST OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH 00Z... SO WILL KEEP THE REMAINING AREAS OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTACT THROUGH 28/00Z. TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... REMAINING PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL OK WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION S/SE AS THE H5 LOW TRACKS ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND THE WARM FRONT DRIFTS BACK SOUTH. FROM 28/00Z (7 PM CDT) THROUGH NOON TUE... ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL ONLY RANGE FROM A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO NEAR A HALF INCH... WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION FROM CENTRAL OK THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL/SERN OK. BEYOND TUESDAY... QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AS BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS THE LENGTH OF THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGH THU. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM UP EACH DAY... NEARING NORMAL BY FRI... WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S... PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT OVERALL AGREEMENT THROUGH SUN... WITH A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDED ACROSS THE LENGTH OF THE SRN CONUS. IT IS WELL IN THE FUTURE... BUT PRECIP CHANCES LOOK POSSIBLE TO RETURN BY MON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN OFF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. JTK && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 47 64 45 73 / 80 40 0 10 HOBART OK 44 64 42 72 / 70 30 0 10 WICHITA FALLS TX 47 63 44 72 / 60 40 0 0 GAGE OK 39 66 40 74 / 100 10 0 10 PONCA CITY OK 45 67 44 75 / 80 20 0 10 DURANT OK 49 61 45 72 / 80 50 10 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-009>011- 014>019-021>025-027>031-038>042-046. TX...NONE. && $$ 09/23/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1135 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 ...UPDATE... .DISCUSSION... SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NRN TX...JUST S OF THE RED RIVER WITH THE DRYLINE ACROSS WEST TX. OUR FORECAST AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ELY TO NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW...WITH SOME HIGHER DEWPOINT POOLING NOTED ACROSS FAR SE OK. IN THE NEARER TERM...LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NE OK AND FAR NW AR ARE STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF LIFTING N AND MIXING OUT...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE. WHILE THE HIGHEST RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FARTHER S ACROSS CENTRAL TX...WE`LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON STORMS MAKING A RUN TOWARD SE OK BY THIS EVENING. LATEST 12Z NAM AND RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF STORMS INTO OUR AREA A BIT...SO HAVE TWEAKED EVENING POPS ACCORDINGLY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 73 52 62 47 / 10 80 70 50 FSM 76 53 63 49 / 10 50 50 70 MLC 82 55 61 48 / 10 80 70 70 BVO 69 51 61 47 / 10 50 50 40 FYV 71 49 60 45 / 10 40 30 50 BYV 65 47 61 46 / 10 20 20 30 MKO 78 53 61 48 / 10 80 70 60 MIO 67 49 63 46 / 10 20 30 30 F10 77 53 59 48 / 10 80 70 70 HHW 83 56 65 50 / 10 70 70 80 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...18 LONG TERM....10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
340 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND COOL AIR ALOFT WILL FAVOR UNSEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THIS MONTH. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... A SPRAWLING UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTROL THE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AT LEAST. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL TO FUNNEL A SERIES OF UPPER SHORTWAVES DOWN OUT OF NEW YORK/EASTERN CANADA AND KEEP A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. THE FIRST SYSTEM CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE AS AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS DROPPING SOUTH INTO NRN PA. THE COARSER RESOLUTION MODELS CREATE SOME LIGHT QPF AND THE HRRR HINTS AT SOME SMALL CELLULAR ACTIVITY AT MAX HEATING. IT MAKES SENSE WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND THE STRONG LATE APRIL SUN. I DON`T FEEL CONFIDENT IN MEASURING ANYWHERE HOWEVER SO WILL JUST KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED SPRINKLES FOR NOW. THE SPRINKLES WILL VANISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING BUT UPSTREAM CLOUDINESS LOOKS DESTINED TO CONTINUE EDGING SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO THE REGION. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY HOWEVER UNDER A SUBTLE AREA OF WEAK UPPER RIDGING BETWEEN THE SYSTEM APPROACHING NOW AND A STRONGER SHORTWAVE SLATED FOR MONDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND FREEZING OVER THE NW TO AROUND 40 IN THE SE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... MODELS AGREE IN BRINGING A RELATIVELY SHARP SHORTWAVE DOWN THROUGH THE EASTERN GR LAKES AND THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. FORECAST LAPSE RATES AREN`T TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE SO THE COVERAGE OF THE QPF MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE. THE SREF/GEFS HAVE NOTHING MORE THAN A SMALL CHANCE AND THAT LOOKS REASONABLE. WITH MARGINALLY CHILLY TEMPS IN THE LOW LEVELS...CAN`T RULE OUT SOME WET SNOWFLAKES IF THE SHOWERS MANAGE TO DEVELOP EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY MONDAY. NO ACCUMS ARE ANTICIPATED. HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF APRIL. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... ACTIVE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL KEEP THE REGION IN UPPER LEVEL TROFFINESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT COOLER THAN NORMAL...SHOWERY WEATHER. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE EAST AND TRY TO PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN U.S. STARTING AROUND NEXT WEEKEND. EARLY THIS WEEK A SHOT OF COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS NUDGED SOUTHWARD ACROSS PA FROM AN UPPER LOW OVR NEW ENG. COOL TEMPS ALOFT ASSOC WITH UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A GOOD DEAL OF DAYTIME CLOUDINESS AND SCT SHRA /ESP OVR THE MTNS/ MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BY MIDWEEK...SLOW MOVING SRN STREAM UPPER LOW WILL EMERGE INTO THE SERN TO MID ATLC STATES...POSSIBLY PHASING WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE. AT THIS POINT SIGNIFICANT PCPN LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF PA...THOUGH THE HIEST POPS OF THE PERIOD WILL BE FROM THIS SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. REGARDLESS...THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A CLOUDY AND COOL DAY ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH. AFFECTS OF THIS UPPER LOW SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND WITH RISING HEIGHTS THE START OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS WARMER AND DRIER...AT THIS POINT. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH BASED CEILINGS OVER MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF NY. CEILINGS WILL LOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS TONIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY MIDNIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF BRADFORD AND AFTER MIDNIGHT AT JOHNSTOWN. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THESE AREAS FROM THE NORTH...PROBABLY NOT UNTIL SUNRISE OR SHORTLY AFTER. ELSEWHERE... CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH MONDAY. OUTLOOK... TUE...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. WED...NO SIG WX. THU-FRI...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
230 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND COOL AIR ALOFT WILL FAVOR UNSEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THIS MONTH. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A SPRAWLING UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTROL THE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AT LEAST. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL TO FUNNEL A SERIES OF UPPER SHORTWAVES DOWN OUT OF NEW YORK/EASTERN CANADA AND KEEP A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. THE FIRST SYSTEM CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE AS AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS DROPPING SOUTH INTO NRN PA. THE COARSER RESOLUTION MODELS CREATE SOME LIGHT QPF AND THE HRRR HINTS AT SOME SMALL CELLULAR ACTIVITY AT MAX HEATING. IT MAKES SENSE WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND THE STRONG LATE APRIL SUN. I DON`T FEEL CONFIDENT IN MEASURING ANYWHERE HOWEVER SO WILL JUST KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED SPRINKLES FOR NOW. THE SPRINKLES WILL VANISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING BUT UPSTREAM CLOUDINESS LOOKS DESTINED TO CONTINUE EDGING SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO THE REGION. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY HOWEVER UNDER A SUBTLE AREA OF WEAK UPPER RIDGING BETWEEN THE SYSTEM APPROACHING NOW AND A STRONGER SHORTWAVE SLATED FOR MONDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND FREEZING OVER THE NW TO AROUND 40 IN THE SE. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... MODELS AGREE IN BRINGING A RELATIVELY SHARP SHORTWAVE DOWN THROUGH THE EASTERN GR LAKES AND THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. FORECAST LAPSE RATES AREN`T TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE SO THE COVERAGE OF THE QPF MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE. THE SREF/GEFS HAVE NOTHING MORE THAN A SMALL CHANCE AND THAT LOOKS REASONABLE. WITH MARGINALLY CHILLY TEMPS IN THE LOW LEVELS...CAN`T RULE OUT SOME WET SNOWFLAKES IF THE SHOWERS MANAGE TO DEVELOP EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY MONDAY. NO ACCUMS ARE ANTICIPATED. HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF APRIL. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... ACTIVE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL KEEP THE REGION IN UPPER LEVEL TROFFINESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE BLOCKED UP NRN STREAM...GENERALLY NW FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL TEND TO SHUNT SRN STREAM SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH OF PA. EARLY NEXT WEEK A SHOT OF COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS NUDGED SOUTHWARD ACROSS PA FROM AN UPPER LOW OVR NEW ENG. COOL TEMPS ALOFT ASSOC WITH UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A GOOD DEAL OF DAYTIME CLOUDINESS AND SCT SHRA /ESP OVR THE MTNS/ MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BY MIDWEEK...THIS LOW FINALLY LIFTS OUT FOR GOOD..BUT DIGGING TROUGH FROM UPPER MIDWEST WILL EXTEND INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BY LATE WEEK...COMBINED WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE S PLAINS TOWARD THE E COAST WILL BRING POSSIBILITY OF A DEVELOPING STORM SLIDING NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. TRACK/STRENGTH STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN...BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE WE/LL BE BETWEEN THAT LOW PRESSURE AREA AND A HIGH OVER OHIO VALLEY...LIKELY KEEPING CLOUDS AND SCT SHOWERS AROUND AS TEMPS COOL BACK DOWN A BIT. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH BASED CEILINGS OVER MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF NY. CEILINGS WILL LOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS TONIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY MIDNIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF BRADFORD AND AFTER MIDNIGHT AT JOHNSTOWN. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THESE AREAS FROM THE NORTH...PROBABLY NOT UNTIL SUNRISE OR SHORTLY AFTER. ELSEWHERE... CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH MONDAY. OUTLOOK... TUE...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. WED...NO SIG WX. THU-FRI...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1022 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND COOL AIR ALOFT WILL FAVOR UNSEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THIS MONTH. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A SPRAWLING UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTROL THE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AT LEAST. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL TO FUNNEL A SERIES OF UPPER SHORTWAVES DOWN OUT OF NEW YORK/EASTERN CANADA AND KEEP A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. THE FIRST SYSTEM CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE AS AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS DROPPING SOUTH INTO NRN PA. THE COARSER RESOLUTION MODELS CREATE SOME LIGHT QPF AND THE HRRR HINTS AT SOME SMALL CELLULAR ACTIVITY AT MAX HEATING. IT MAKES SENSE WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND THE STRONG LATE APRIL SUN. I DON`T FEEL CONFIDENT IN MEASURING ANYWHERE HOWEVER SO WILL JUST KEEP THE MENTION OF SPRINKLES FOR NOW. 00Z GEFS MEAN 8H TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS FROM NR 50F ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO NR 60F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...STILL WELL BLW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... CONTINUED COOLING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL TREND TWD BKN-OVC SKIES WITH ISOLATED TO SCTD -SHRA LATE TONIGHT /BUT MORE LIKELY AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY/. COLD BLYR TEMPS WITH ZERO DEG C WET BULB HEIGHT ONLY 1-2KFT AGL WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND NW MTNS TO ALLOW WET SNOW TO MIX IN WITH THE SHOWERS...ESP AT ELEVATIONS AOA 2000 MSL. SFC TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50F MONDAY AFTERNOON /AND THE ZERO WET BULB HEIGHT RISING TO BETWEEN 2-3 KFT AGL/ WILL SUPPORT PLAIN RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... ACTIVE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL KEEP THE REGION IN UPPER LEVEL TROFFINESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE BLOCKED UP NRN STREAM...GENERALLY NW FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL TEND TO SHUNT SRN STREAM SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH OF PA. EARLY NEXT WEEK A SHOT OF COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS NUDGED SOUTHWARD ACROSS PA FROM AN UPPER LOW OVR NEW ENG. COOL TEMPS ALOFT ASSOC WITH UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A GOOD DEAL OF DAYTIME CLOUDINESS AND SCT SHRA /ESP OVR THE MTNS/ MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BY MIDWEEK...THIS LOW FINALLY LIFTS OUT FOR GOOD..BUT DIGGING TROUGH FROM UPPER MIDWEST WILL EXTEND INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BY LATE WEEK...COMBINED WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE S PLAINS TOWARD THE E COAST WILL BRING POSSIBILITY OF A DEVELOPING STORM SLIDING NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. TRACK/STRENGTH STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN...BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE WE/LL BE BETWEEN THAT LOW PRESSURE AREA AND A HIGH OVER OHIO VALLEY...LIKELY KEEPING CLOUDS AND SCT SHOWERS AROUND AS TEMPS COOL BACK DOWN A BIT. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGHER BASED CEILINGS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF NY. BY MID DAY A SCT-BKN 4000-5000FT DECK WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN AS COOLER AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO ARRIVE. CEILINGS WILL LOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS TONIGHT WITH RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING IN THE EVENING AT KBFD AND AFTER MIDNIGHT AT KJST. SCT LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THESE AREAS FROM THE NORTH. ELSEWHERE... CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE RESTRICTIONS BECOME POSS ON MONDAY. OUTLOOK... MON...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SCT/NUMEROUS RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN. TUE...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. IMPROVING TO VFR LATE. WED...NO SIG WX. THU...MVFR POSS IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER AVIATION...LA CORTE/RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
937 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015 .UPDATE... ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS ARE PUSHING TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF LLANO AND BURNET COUNTIES TONIGHT. STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE PEA TO DIME SIZED HAIL. OTHERWISE...A COOL NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/ AVIATION... /00Z TAF UPDATE/ WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ABOUT 80 MILES EAST OF I-35 SHOULD DEFLECT ANY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION FOR THIS EVENING...AND ONLY A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL TX TONIGHT. THIS IS REFLECTED WELL IN RECENT HRRR RUNS...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES ON TAF SITES. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH THE AREA WITH A GRADUAL NORTHERLY WIND INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH NOT A SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT OR DRAMATIC WIND INCREASE. UNDER THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER N TX RESIDES LOWER LEVEL SATURATION THROUGH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT RAINS...AND THIS LOWER CATEGORY SHOULD DRAG MVFR CIGS INTO AUSTIN SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO SAT/SSF BY DAYBREAK. MEANWHILE...DRT SHOULD SEE BETTER DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MIXING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND HAVE VFR CIGS DEVELOP IF THEY FORM AT ALL. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)... LOOKING AT THE 27/19Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES...LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 70S AND 80S WHILE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU TO NEAR 70 NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS. ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LOW IS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE RED RIVER OVERNIGHT. SOME WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND WILL RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS DRY AND COOL AIR SPREADS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS A TRAILING TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WE/LL KEEP ANY RAIN CHANCES LOW (20%) AND CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF A FREDERICKSBURG TO GIDDINGS LINE ON TUESDAY. WE/LL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED IF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TRIED TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. GIVEN THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER...ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 40S AND 50S WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE COOLEST SPOTS WILL BE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN I-35 CORRIDOR. WE DO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION FROM NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE/LL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE COASTAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 59 69 52 75 53 / 20 10 - 0 0 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 59 68 46 74 49 / 20 10 - 0 0 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 59 71 50 75 52 / - - - 0 0 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 56 64 47 74 52 / 30 20 - 0 0 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 58 72 52 78 54 / 0 - - 0 0 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 58 65 48 74 51 / 30 20 - 0 0 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 58 73 49 75 52 / 0 - - 0 0 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 59 69 49 74 52 / - - - 0 0 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 61 70 49 74 52 / 20 10 - 0 0 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 60 72 51 75 53 / 0 - - 0 0 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 61 73 52 75 54 / 0 - - 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17 PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
707 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015 .AVIATION... /00Z TAF UPDATE/ WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ABOUT 80 MILES EAST OF I-35 SHOULD DEFLECT ANY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION FOR THIS EVENING...AND ONLY A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL TX TONIGHT. THIS IS REFLECTED WELL IN RECENT HRRR RUNS...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES ON TAF SITES. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH THE AREA WITH A GRADUAL NORTHERLY WIND INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH NOT A SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT OR DRAMATIC WIND INCREASE. UNDER THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER N TX RESIDES LOWER LEVEL SATURATION THROUGH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT RAINS...AND THIS LOWER CATEGORY SHOULD DRAG MVFR CIGS INTO AUSTIN SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO SAT/SSF BY DAYBREAK. MEANWHILE...DRT SHOULD SEE BETTER DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MIXING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND HAVE VFR CIGS DEVELOP IF THEY FORM AT ALL. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)... LOOKING AT THE 27/19Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES...LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 70S AND 80S WHILE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU TO NEAR 70 NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS. ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LOW IS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE RED RIVER OVERNIGHT. SOME WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND WILL RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS DRY AND COOL AIR SPREADS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS A TRAILING TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WE/LL KEEP ANY RAIN CHANCES LOW (20%) AND CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF A FREDERICKSBURG TO GIDDINGS LINE ON TUESDAY. WE/LL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED IF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TRIED TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. GIVEN THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER...ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 40S AND 50S WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE COOLEST SPOTS WILL BE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN I-35 CORRIDOR. WE DO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION FROM NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE/LL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE COASTAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 59 69 52 75 53 / 20 10 - 0 0 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 59 68 46 74 49 / 20 10 - 0 0 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 59 71 50 75 52 / - - - 0 0 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 56 64 47 74 52 / 30 20 - 0 0 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 58 72 52 78 54 / 0 - - 0 0 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 58 65 48 74 51 / 30 20 - 0 0 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 58 73 49 75 52 / 0 - - 0 0 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 59 69 49 74 52 / - - - 0 0 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 61 70 49 74 52 / 20 10 - 0 0 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 60 72 51 75 53 / 0 - - 0 0 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 61 73 52 75 54 / 0 - - 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17 PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
232 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 .DISCUSSION... WITH THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST ON OUR SHORT TERM SEVERE WEATHER EVOLUTION...WILL KEEP THE DISCUSSION WITH REGARDS TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST BRIEF. THE DISCUSSION REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT REMAINS MOSTLY VALID STILL AT 2 PM...SO LEFT THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE APPENDED BELOW. CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE FOR TODAY...THE 18Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WAS OCCURRING FARTHER NORTH THAN WHAT MODELS WERE INDICATING THIS MORNING. IF THE SURFACE LOW DOES NOT DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...THE PRIMARY INGREDIENTS FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE NORTH TOWARDS THE DFW METROPLEX THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN THROUGH 00Z AND THE STRONGEST FORCING AND COMBINATION OF INGREDIENTS FOR SUPERCELLS WILL EXIST AT THAT TIME AS A RESULT. THE BEST WINDOW FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE CWA...EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW STILL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK FOR THE 5 PM TO 10 PM TIME FRAME. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE LOW CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON BECAUSE IF IT SETS UP FARTHER NORTH...THE BIGGEST THREAT FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS MAY MOVE AWAY FROM CENTRAL TEXAS AND TOWARDS THE DFW AREA. WILL HAVE TO JUST SEE WHAT HAPPENS AT THIS POINT. ANOTHER TORNADO WATCH IS LIKELY TO BE ISSUED LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WHILE THERE MAY NOT BE MANY STORMS...THE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO POSE A VERY HIGH THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER. CONDITIONS STILL LOOK FAVORABLE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WHEREVER SUPERCELLS DEVELOP. A SQUALL LINE STILL LOOKS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA OR ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS THIS EVENING. THIS SQUALL LINE STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE VERY ORGANIZED AND POSE A WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE THREAT FOR FLOODING APPEARS TO BE UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE THREAT FOR TRAINING STORMS THROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. MONDAY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE VERY LIKELY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE MODE AND OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. IF A LARGE SQUALL LINE/DERECHO MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT...IT MAY LEAVE A STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR MONDAY. UNTIL WE KNOW WHAT HAPPENS WITH STORMS THROUGH TONIGHT...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY THE EXACT THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE STRONG LIFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND THERE WILL BE MOISTURE...SO OVERALL POPS ARE QUITE HIGH IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE RANGE. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...HOWEVER CONDITIONS NEAR THE SURFACE MAY BE COOL AND CLOUD COVER MAY INHIBIT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW. AT THIS TIME...THINK THAT THE LOCATIONS WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL TEND TO BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AS THE OVERNIGHT SQUALL LINE IS MOST LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. WE WILL OBVIOUSLY HAVE TO REEVALUATE THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT TOMORROW MORNING AFTER THE SQUALL LINE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE CWA. TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER NORTH TEXAS...CENTERED OVER THE RED RIVER. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEEING SOME STORMS RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE UPPER LOW AS THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT...HOWEVER SKIES WILL LIKELY BE OVERCAST...SO SURFACE BASED STORMS APPEAR TO BE VERY UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY NEAR THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW...SO HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS NEAR THE RED RIVER...AND LOWEST POPS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A WARMING TREND UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. CAVANAUGH && .PREVIOUS UPDATE /ISSUED AT 1239 PM/... MESOSCALE FORECAST UPDATE REGARDING THE FORECAST FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY... 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO BORDER. 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 6 TO 12 DM WERE OBSERVED DOWNSTREAM OF THIS UPPER TROUGH...AND THE MAGNITUDE OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS IS INDICATIVE OF STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT TO THE EAST. AT THE 700 MB LEVEL...A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WAS OBSERVED...WITH A TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE IN THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER OF 22 DEG C LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THIS PLUME OF ENHANCED LAPSE RATES...A 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET CORE WAS OBSERVED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...AT THE 850 MB LEVEL...DEEP MOISTURE WAS ONLY OBSERVED OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS WITH A DRYLINE SUBJECTIVELY ANALYZED NEAR THE TX/OK BORDER...EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AND INTO NORTHERN MEXICO ABOUT 60 MILES WEST OF DEL RIO. A 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS OBSERVED RICH MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG THE TX GULF COAST WITH MID 70S DEW POINTS OBSERVED WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF HOUSTON. FOR TODAY...NEARLY ALL SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS SURFACE PRESSURE FALLING AT A RATE OF 2-3 MB PER HOUR LEADING UP TO 00Z. AT 15Z...THE LOWEST SURFACE PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WAS AROUND 1002 MB...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SURFACE LOW`S PRESSURE WILL FALL TO 993 TO 995 MB BY 00Z. THAT MAGNITUDE OF PRESSURE FALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW IS FAIRLY INTENSE...AND SHOULD RESULT IN A CONVERGENCE OF PARAMETERS THAT WILL SUPPORT A LOCALIZED SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONE OF THE KEY FORECAST CHALLENGES TODAY WILL BE DETERMINING WHERE THE SURFACE LOW MOVES AS THE RELATIVE THREATS FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES WILL VARY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT POSITION OF THIS LOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z NAM AND 16Z HRRR INDICATE THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND JUST NORTH OF SAN ANGELO. IF THIS POSITION FOR THE SURFACE LOW IS CORRECT...THE THREAT FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WOULD BE MAXIMIZED TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHERE A TRIPLE POINT WOULD LIKELY SET UP. SUPERCELLS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP NEAR THIS TRIPLE POINT...AND THEN MOVE EAST IN THE RELATIVELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. STORMS APPEAR TO BE VERY LIKELY IN A SUPERCELL STORM MODE IF THEY DEVELOP IN THIS TRIPLE POINT BY 00Z AS CAPE IS FORECAST TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 3000 J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50 KTS IN THE 0-6 KM AGL LAYER. THE SHAPE OF THE 0-3 KM HODOGRAPH IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOCKWISE LOOPING...AND DYNAMICALLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELLS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SUPERCELL STORM MOTION TO BE ALMOST DUE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELLS LOOK MOST LIKELY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 BASED ON THE FORECAST POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW. THIS PLACES MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE PRIMARY THREAT CORRIDOR FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF WELL-ORGANIZED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES. THE RESIDENTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS ARE ENCOURAGED TO PAY VERY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A RESULT. OF COURSE IF THE SURFACE LOW IS FARTHER NORTH ...THE PRIMARY THREAT CORRIDOR FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL MOVE NORTH WITH IT. AWAY FROM THIS PRIMARY THREAT CORRIDOR...IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FOR SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME INDICATED BY THE CLOCKWISE LOOPING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH. THIS LIFT/FORCING IS NOT AS STRONG AND FOCUSED...SO IT IS SIMPLY MORE DIFFICULT TO KNOW IF...WHEN AND WHERE A SUPERCELL MAY DEVELOP IN THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. AFTER 00Z...THE VERY STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION THAT SUGGESTS A VERY WELL ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE WILL DEVELOP NEAR CHILDRESS...AND MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. THERE ARE HINTS IN THE MODEL MASS FIELDS THAT THIS SQUALL LINE COULD POTENTIALLY BE VERY WELL ORGANIZED...AND MAY POSE A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT. IF THIS SQUALL LINE DOES INDEED ORGANIZE...IT MAY PERSIST LONG ENOUGH AND PRODUCE ENOUGH STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE TO QUALIFY AS A DERECHO BY THE TIME IT EXITS THE CWA TO THE EAST WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE PRIMARY TIME THIS SQUALL LINE/BOW-ECHO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER NORTH TEXAS IS FROM 10 PM TO 3 AM. THE EXISTENCE OF THIS SQUALL LINE IS FAR FROM 100 PERCENT CERTAIN...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY ORGANIZE BASED ON THE CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THIS MORNING`S HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE. THE PRIMARY THREATS WITHIN THIS SQUALL LINE WOULD BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. ASSUMING THE SQUALL LINE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AFTER SUNSET AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...THIS MAY REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH-END DAMAGING WINDS. REGARDLESS... WIND DAMAGE WOULD STILL BE LIKELY AS THIS SQUALL LIKE WOULD PROBABLY BE VERY WELL ORGANIZED. LARGE HAIL AND A BRIEF TORNADO MAY ALSO OCCUR IN THIS LINE...ASSUMING IT DEVELOPS. LAST BUT NOT LEAST...WE WILL ALSO BE MONITORING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF A WARM FRONT SETS UP ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND TRAIN OVER AREAS TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS MAY EVOLVE INTO ANOTHER LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING EVENT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND GENERALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED ON FRIDAY. WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IN THIS TAKING PLACE IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME. IF IT OCCURS...THESE LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED QUITE A BIT OF RAINFALL ON FRIDAY...SO FLOODING WOULD TEND TO OCCUR QUICKLY IF STORMS BEGIN TO TRAIN OVER THIS REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SHORT TERM FORECAST UPDATES FOR CONVECTION MODE THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT STORMS WILL START DEVELOPING NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND EVOLVE INTO DISCRETE SUPERCELLS BY/AFTER 4 PM/21Z. CAVANAUGH && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 1256 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/ THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE A VERY ACTIVE PERIOD FOR THE NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TAF SITES WITH CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE SEVERE. CONVECTION IS ONGOING SOUTHWEST OF METROPLEX TAF SITES AND JUST TO THE WEST OF WACO. THIS ACTIVITY IS ELEVATED...AND BASED AROUND 10KFT. STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE COLUMN ARE LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO TURBULENCE IN THIS AREA AS WELL. LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN AS THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO PUSH TOWARDS THE METROPLEX THIS AFTERNOON. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE AS SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY INCREASES DUE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. IT APPEARS THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS NEAR THE METROPLEX WILL OCCUR AFTER 02Z. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS KEYING IN ON AN AREA ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A STRONG LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP AND RIDE THE BOUNDARY EASTWARD TOWARD THE METROPLEX TAF SITES AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS SOLUTION IS FAR FROM CERTAIN...BUT THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT FROM SHORT TERM GUIDANCE WHICH LENDS CREDENCE TO THIS SCENARIO. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS SOLUTION WOULD BE VERY STRONG WINDS...BUT ALL TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE LINE OF STORMS BEING ADVERTISED ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE TOO FAR NORTH TO IMPACT THE WACO TAF SITE. HOWEVER... WACO WILL BE THREATENED BY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. AGAIN...ALL TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CENTRAL TEXAS. AFTER STORMS CLEAR OUT EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING...SOME BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. HAVE KEPT TAF SITES ON THE LOW END OF MVFR FOR NOW SINCE THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THE POST-CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT TOMORROW. STALLEY && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 63 69 53 63 48 / 70 60 60 20 5 WACO, TX 64 76 54 65 46 / 60 60 40 10 0 PARIS, TX 56 66 52 63 45 / 70 70 70 30 5 DENTON, TX 62 66 52 63 45 / 70 60 60 20 5 MCKINNEY, TX 60 66 52 63 46 / 70 70 70 20 5 DALLAS, TX 63 69 53 63 50 / 70 60 60 20 5 TERRELL, TX 61 70 54 63 48 / 60 70 70 20 5 CORSICANA, TX 64 73 54 64 48 / 60 60 60 20 0 TEMPLE, TX 64 81 55 66 48 / 60 30 40 10 0 MINERAL WELLS, TX 61 71 53 63 46 / 70 60 40 10 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
143 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 .UPDATE... PLEASE SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU TODAY. IT APPEARS THIS CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ISOLATED AND NOT IMPACT OUR TAF SITES. FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...LOW CLOUDS RETURN TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR...RESULTING IN LOW END MVFR TO IFR CIGS. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. WE WILL MENTION TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSRA FOR THE I-35 TAF SITES BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE EAST OF ALL TAF SITES AFTER 13Z...LEAVING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS UNTIL 15Z. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/ UPDATE...CORRECTED... MONITORING WHAT COULD BE A VERY ACTIVE AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THROUGH MID MORNING...SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA IN A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT. EML CAPPING/MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS LIMITING THE INTENSITY OF THIS DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY BUT IT MAY BE A FOREWARNING OF THINGS TO COME THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CAP IS FORECAST TO ERODE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ALSO BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE DRYLINE CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE BIG BEND AREA THROUGH MIDLAND WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS FAVORABLE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ORIENTATION COULD RESULT IN A VERTICALLY VEERED PROFILE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE. AS THE MORNING CLOUD COVER MIXES OUT AND CAPPING DETERIORATES BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AN AREA EAST OF DEL RIO TO SONORA WILL BE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED...BUT POTENTIALLY RAPIDLY DEVELOPING CONVECTION WITH THE PROSPECT OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POTENTIALLY SOME TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WHILE LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR...DO THINK THE DECENT SHOT AT SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD EXTEND SOUTH TO THE HWY 57 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. SINCE HI RES MODELS SUCH AS TTU WRF AND HRRR ARE KEEPING CI WELL NORTH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...DID NOT INCREASE POPS ABOVE CHC WORDING THROUGH 00Z. BUT AS SPC HAS INCLUDED THE SAME GENERAL LOCATIONS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IN THE ENHANCED RISK...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH INTO OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. AS FOR OVERNIGHT STORM POTENTIAL...PREVIOUS FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK WITH LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL RUNS. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT LINE OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS...MORE AS A STRAIGHT LINE WIND THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL AS WELL. TB && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 65 85 59 72 51 / 70 30 20 10 - AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 65 83 58 72 49 / 70 30 20 10 - NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 66 84 59 73 50 / 60 30 10 10 - BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 62 83 56 70 49 / 70 30 30 20 - DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 62 87 60 76 51 / 10 0 - - - GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 63 83 57 70 49 / 70 30 30 10 - HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 63 85 59 74 49 / 40 20 - - - SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 65 83 60 72 50 / 70 30 10 10 - LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 69 82 61 72 50 / 60 50 20 10 - SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 66 85 60 73 51 / 50 20 10 10 - STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 67 84 62 74 51 / 40 30 10 10 - && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...03 PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1256 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 .AVIATION... THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE A VERY ACTIVE PERIOD FOR THE NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TAF SITES WITH CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE SEVERE. CONVECTION IS ONGOING SOUTHWEST OF METROPLEX TAF SITES AND JUST TO THE WEST OF WACO. THIS ACTIVITY IS ELEVATED...AND BASED AROUND 10KFT. STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE COLUMN ARE LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO TURBULENCE IN THIS AREA AS WELL. LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN AS THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO PUSH TOWARDS THE METROPLEX THIS AFTERNOON. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE AS SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY INCREASES DUE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. IT APPEARS THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS NEAR THE METROPLEX WILL OCCUR AFTER 02Z. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS KEYING IN ON AN AREA ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A STRONG LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP AND RIDE THE BOUNDARY EASTWARD TOWARD THE METROPLEX TAF SITES AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS SOLUTION IS FAR FROM CERTAIN...BUT THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT FROM SHORT TERM GUIDANCE WHICH LENDS CREDENCE TO THIS SCENARIO. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS SOLUTION WOULD BE VERY STRONG WINDS...BUT ALL TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE LINE OF STORMS BEING ADVERTISED ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE TOO FAR NORTH TO IMPACT THE WACO TAF SITE. HOWEVER... WACO WILL BE THREATENED BY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. AGAIN...ALL TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CENTRAL TEXAS. AFTER STORMS CLEAR OUT EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING...SOME BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. HAVE KEPT TAF SITES ON THE LOW END OF MVFR FOR NOW SINCE THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THE POST-CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT TOMORROW. STALLEY && .UPDATE... ...MESOSCALE FORECAST UPDATE REGARDING THE FORECAST FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY... 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO BORDER. 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 6 TO 12 DM WERE OBSERVED DOWNSTREAM OF THIS UPPER TROUGH...AND THE MAGNITUDE OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS IS INDICATIVE OF STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT TO THE EAST. AT THE 700 MB LEVEL...A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WAS OBSERVED...WITH A TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE IN THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER OF 22 DEG C LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THIS PLUME OF ENHANCED LAPSE RATES...A 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET CORE WAS OBSERVED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...AT THE 850 MB LEVEL...DEEP MOISTURE WAS ONLY OBSERVED OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS WITH A DRYLINE SUBJECTIVELY ANALYZED NEAR THE TX/OK BORDER...EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AND INTO NORTHERN MEXICO ABOUT 60 MILES WEST OF DEL RIO. A 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS OBSERVED RICH MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG THE TX GULF COAST WITH MID 70S DEW POINTS OBSERVED WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF HOUSTON. FOR TODAY...NEARLY ALL SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS SURFACE PRESSURE FALLING AT A RATE OF 2-3 MB PER HOUR LEADING UP TO 00Z. AT 15Z...THE LOWEST SURFACE PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WAS AROUND 1002 MB...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SURFACE LOW`S PRESSURE WILL FALL TO 993 TO 995 MB BY 00Z. THAT MAGNITUDE OF PRESSURE FALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW IS FAIRLY INTENSE...AND SHOULD RESULT IN A CONVERGENCE OF PARAMETERS THAT WILL SUPPORT A LOCALIZED SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONE OF THE KEY FORECAST CHALLENGES TODAY WILL BE DETERMINING WHERE THE SURFACE LOW MOVES AS THE RELATIVE THREATS FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES WILL VARY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT POSITION OF THIS LOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z NAM AND 16Z HRRR INDICATE THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND JUST NORTH OF SAN ANGELO. IF THIS POSITION FOR THE SURFACE LOW IS CORRECT...THE THREAT FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WOULD BE MAXIMIZED TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHERE A TRIPLE POINT WOULD LIKELY SET UP. SUPERCELLS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP NEAR THIS TRIPLE POINT...AND THEN MOVE EAST IN THE RELATIVELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. STORMS APPEAR TO BE VERY LIKELY IN A SUPERCELL STORM MODE IF THEY DEVELOP IN THIS TRIPLE POINT BY 00Z AS CAPE IS FORECAST TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 3000 J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50 KTS IN THE 0-6 KM AGL LAYER. THE SHAPE OF THE 0-3 KM HODOGRAPH IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOCKWISE LOOPING...AND DYNAMICALLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELLS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SUPERCELL STORM MOTION TO BE ALMOST DUE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELLS LOOK MOST LIKELY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 BASED ON THE FORECAST POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW. THIS PLACES MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE PRIMARY THREAT CORRIDOR FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF WELL-ORGANIZED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES. THE RESIDENTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS ARE ENCOURAGED TO PAY VERY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A RESULT. OF COURSE IF THE SURFACE LOW IS FARTHER NORTH ...THE PRIMARY THREAT CORRIDOR FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL MOVE NORTH WITH IT. AWAY FROM THIS PRIMARY THREAT CORRIDOR...IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FOR SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME INDICATED BY THE CLOCKWISE LOOPING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH. THIS LIFT/FORCING IS NOT AS STRONG AND FOCUSED...SO IT IS SIMPLY MORE DIFFICULT TO KNOW IF...WHEN AND WHERE A SUPERCELL MAY DEVELOP IN THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. AFTER 00Z...THE VERY STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION THAT SUGGESTS A VERY WELL ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE WILL DEVELOP NEAR CHILDRESS...AND MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. THERE ARE HINTS IN THE MODEL MASS FIELDS THAT THIS SQUALL LINE COULD POTENTIALLY BE VERY WELL ORGANIZED...AND MAY POSE A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT. IF THIS SQUALL LINE DOES INDEED ORGANIZE...IT MAY PERSIST LONG ENOUGH AND PRODUCE ENOUGH STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE TO QUALIFY AS A DERECHO BY THE TIME IT EXITS THE CWA TO THE EAST WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE PRIMARY TIME THIS SQUALL LINE/BOW-ECHO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER NORTH TEXAS IS FROM 10 PM TO 3 AM. THE EXISTENCE OF THIS SQUALL LINE IS FAR FROM 100 PERCENT CERTAIN...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY ORGANIZE BASED ON THE CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THIS MORNING`S HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE. THE PRIMARY THREATS WITHIN THIS SQUALL LINE WOULD BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. ASSUMING THE SQUALL LINE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AFTER SUNSET AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...THIS MAY REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH-END DAMAGING WINDS. REGARDLESS... WIND DAMAGE WOULD STILL BE LIKELY AS THIS SQUALL LIKE WOULD PROBABLY BE VERY WELL ORGANIZED. LARGE HAIL AND A BRIEF TORNADO MAY ALSO OCCUR IN THIS LINE...ASSUMING IT DEVELOPS. LAST BUT NOT LEAST...WE WILL ALSO BE MONITORING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF A WARM FRONT SETS UP ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND TRAIN OVER AREAS TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS MAY EVOLVE INTO ANOTHER LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING EVENT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND GENERALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED ON FRIDAY. WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IN THIS TAKING PLACE IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME. IF IT OCCURS...THESE LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED QUITE A BIT OF RAINFALL ON FRIDAY...SO FLOODING WOULD TEND TO OCCUR QUICKLY IF STORMS BEGIN TO TRAIN OVER THIS REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SHORT TERM FORECAST UPDATES FOR CONVECTION MODE THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT STORMS WILL START DEVELOPING NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND EVOLVE INTO DISCRETE SUPERCELLS BY/AFTER 4 PM/21Z. CAVANAUGH && .SYNOPSIS... THE FIRST PORTION OF TODAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...WITH VERY WARM AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. ONE DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ACTIVE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...THEREAFTER...A MORE TRANQUIL PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS. && .SHORT TERM... THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION /SOME STRONG TO SEVERE/ ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AT THIS HOUR REVEALED THAT THE MAIN UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAY/S SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THIS VERY DYNAMIC TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD BEFORE CLOSING OFF LATER TODAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA BENEATH A STOUT EML THAT IS SIMULTANEOUSLY ADVECTING EASTWARD OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE EML IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ASCENT PRODUCED BY THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW /AS EVIDENCED BY 30 TO 40 METER HEIGHT FALLS/ SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION MID TO LATE MORNING MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A BOWIE TO GLEN ROSE TO KILLEEN LINE. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THREAT IN THE MORNING...SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A 100 KT UPPER LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE AND A VORTICITY LOBE ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH OUT INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. DURING THIS TIME...THE DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPEN NEAR THE BIG COUNTRY. THE STRONG LIFT...DIURNAL HEATING...AND INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD ERODE SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. VERY HIGH CAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 2500-3000 J/KG....MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 8 C/KM AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 45 TO 50 KNOTS WILL EASILY SUPPORT A LARGE AND DAMAGING HAIL THREAT. AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST...GENERALLY BEYOND A BOWIE TO MINERAL WELLS TO WACO LINE THIS AFTERNOON...THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DRIER WHICH INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. WHILE TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON...THIS THREAT ACTUALLY INCREASES DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE AND BACK IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LARGE HODOGRAPHS WHILE CINH IS STILL LOW. AN ENHANCED TORNADO RISK MAY DEVELOP ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES THAT WOULD INCLUDE THE WACO/TEMPLE/KILLEEN AREAS. UNLIKE MOST SEVERE EVENTS...WE EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO FIRE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO FOSTER AN INCREASING HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS CONTINUED ADVECTION OF WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION IS EXPECTED. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT ALL INTERESTS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS NEED TO PAY PARTICULARLY CLOSE ATTENTION TO WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HIGH IMPACT SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF LARGE HAIL...DESTRUCTIVE WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES. && .LONG TERM... ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ON MONDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW MEANDERS ACROSS THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE RED RIVER AND MAY EVEN DRIFT SOUTHWARD. STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT WARM MOIST AIR NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS. WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG CAP...EXPECT WIDESPREAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY MITIGATE THE LARGER SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON MONDAY...EXCEPT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE SOME HEATING WILL BE POSSIBLE. PERHAPS THE LARGER THREAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ON MONDAY AS PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TOWARDS THE 1.15-1.25 INCH RANGE. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES PARTICULARLY FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD TAPER OFF BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND THE UPPER FORCING DEPARTS THE REGION. COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AS THE OMEGA PATTERN ESTABLISHES ITSELF. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN MAY BE TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF MAY. 15-BAIN/TR.92 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 84 61 71 54 64 / 40 70 70 60 20 WACO, TX 85 65 76 54 67 / 50 60 50 40 10 PARIS, TX 83 57 67 53 62 / 30 70 70 70 30 DENTON, TX 83 60 67 52 64 / 40 70 70 60 20 MCKINNEY, TX 83 59 68 53 64 / 40 70 70 70 20 DALLAS, TX 85 61 70 54 64 / 40 70 70 60 20 TERRELL, TX 85 61 71 55 64 / 40 60 70 70 20 CORSICANA, TX 85 65 73 54 65 / 30 60 60 60 20 TEMPLE, TX 86 65 80 54 67 / 50 60 40 40 10 MINERAL WELLS, TX 82 62 74 55 65 / 50 70 60 40 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 77
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1239 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 .UPDATE... ...MESOSCALE FORECAST UPDATE REGARDING THE FORECAST FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY... 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO BORDER. 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 6 TO 12 DM WERE OBSERVED DOWNSTREAM OF THIS UPPER TROUGH...AND THE MAGNITUDE OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS IS INDICATIVE OF STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT TO THE EAST. AT THE 700 MB LEVEL...A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WAS OBSERVED...WITH A TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE IN THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER OF 22 DEG C LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THIS PLUME OF ENHANCED LAPSE RATES...A 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET CORE WAS OBSERVED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...AT THE 850 MB LEVEL...DEEP MOISTURE WAS ONLY OBSERVED OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS WITH A DRYLINE SUBJECTIVELY ANALYZED NEAR THE TX/OK BORDER...EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AND INTO NORTHERN MEXICO ABOUT 60 MILES WEST OF DEL RIO. A 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS OBSERVED RICH MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG THE TX GULF COAST WITH MID 70S DEW POINTS OBSERVED WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF HOUSTON. FOR TODAY...NEARLY ALL SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS SURFACE PRESSURE FALLING AT A RATE OF 2-3 MB PER HOUR LEADING UP TO 00Z. AT 15Z...THE LOWEST SURFACE PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WAS AROUND 1002 MB...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SURFACE LOW`S PRESSURE WILL FALL TO 993 TO 995 MB BY 00Z. THAT MAGNITUDE OF PRESSURE FALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW IS FAIRLY INTENSE...AND SHOULD RESULT IN A CONVERGENCE OF PARAMETERS THAT WILL SUPPORT A LOCALIZED SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONE OF THE KEY FORECAST CHALLENGES TODAY WILL BE DETERMINING WHERE THE SURFACE LOW MOVES AS THE RELATIVE THREATS FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES WILL VARY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT POSITION OF THIS LOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z NAM AND 16Z HRRR INDICATE THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND JUST NORTH OF SAN ANGELO. IF THIS POSITION FOR THE SURFACE LOW IS CORRECT...THE THREAT FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WOULD BE MAXIMIZED TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHERE A TRIPLE POINT WOULD LIKELY SET UP. SUPERCELLS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP NEAR THIS TRIPLE POINT...AND THEN MOVE EAST IN THE RELATIVELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. STORMS APPEAR TO BE VERY LIKELY IN A SUPERCELL STORM MODE IF THEY DEVELOP IN THIS TRIPLE POINT BY 00Z AS CAPE IS FORECAST TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 3000 J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50 KTS IN THE 0-6 KM AGL LAYER. THE SHAPE OF THE 0-3 KM HODOGRAPH IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOCKWISE LOOPING...AND DYNAMICALLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELLS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SUPERCELL STORM MOTION TO BE ALMOST DUE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELLS LOOK MOST LIKELY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 BASED ON THE FORECAST POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW. THIS PLACES MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE PRIMARY THREAT CORRIDOR FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF WELL-ORGANIZED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES. THE RESIDENTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS ARE ENCOURAGED TO PAY VERY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A RESULT. OF COURSE IF THE SURFACE LOW IS FARTHER NORTH ...THE PRIMARY THREAT CORRIDOR FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL MOVE NORTH WITH IT. AWAY FROM THIS PRIMARY THREAT CORRIDOR...IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FOR SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME INDICATED BY THE CLOCKWISE LOOPING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH. THIS LIFT/FORCING IS NOT AS STRONG AND FOCUSED...SO IT IS SIMPLY MORE DIFFICULT TO KNOW IF...WHEN AND WHERE A SUPERCELL MAY DEVELOP IN THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. AFTER 00Z...THE VERY STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION THAT SUGGESTS A VERY WELL ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE WILL DEVELOP NEAR CHILDRESS...AND MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. THERE ARE HINTS IN THE MODEL MASS FIELDS THAT THIS SQUALL LINE COULD POTENTIALLY BE VERY WELL ORGANIZED...AND MAY POSE A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT. IF THIS SQUALL LINE DOES INDEED ORGANIZE...IT MAY PERSIST LONG ENOUGH AND PRODUCE ENOUGH STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE TO QUALIFY AS A DERECHO BY THE TIME IT EXITS THE CWA TO THE EAST WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE PRIMARY TIME THIS SQUALL LINE/BOW-ECHO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER NORTH TEXAS IS FROM 10 PM TO 3 AM. THE EXISTENCE OF THIS SQUALL LINE IS FAR FROM 100 PERCENT CERTAIN...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY ORGANIZE BASED ON THE CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THIS MORNING`S HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE. THE PRIMARY THREATS WITHIN THIS SQUALL LINE WOULD BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. ASSUMING THE SQUALL LINE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AFTER SUNSET AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...THIS MAY REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH-END DAMAGING WINDS. REGARDLESS... WIND DAMAGE WOULD STILL BE LIKELY AS THIS SQUALL LIKE WOULD PROBABLY BE VERY WELL ORGANIZED. LARGE HAIL AND A BRIEF TORNADO MAY ALSO OCCUR IN THIS LINE...ASSUMING IT DEVELOPS. LAST BUT NOT LEAST...WE WILL ALSO BE MONITORING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF A WARM FRONT SETS UP ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND TRAIN OVER AREAS TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS MAY EVOLVE INTO ANOTHER LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING EVENT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND GENERALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED ON FRIDAY. WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IN THIS TAKING PLACE IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME. IF IT OCCURS...THESE LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED QUITE A BIT OF RAINFALL ON FRIDAY...SO FLOODING WOULD TEND TO OCCUR QUICKLY IF STORMS BEGIN TO TRAIN OVER THIS REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SHORT TERM FORECAST UPDATES FOR CONVECTION MODE THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT STORMS WILL START DEVELOPING NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND EVOLVE INTO DISCRETE SUPERCELLS BY/AFTER 4 PM/21Z. CAVANAUGH && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/ FIRST CHALLENGE IS IFR STRATUS THAT IS MOVING NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS CLOUD DECK SHOULD AFFECT DAL AFTER 13Z...AND MAY CLIP GKY/DFW AS WELL. THIS MOISTURE LAYER IS THIN AND STRATUS SHOULD ERODE BY 15Z OR 16Z. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MIDDAY AND THERE IS ACTUALLY REALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT INTO THE AREA EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR HIGH BASED OR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AS THERE IS ABOUT 400-700 J/KG OF INSTABILITY FROM PARCELS LIFTED NEAR 12000FT. DRY AIR BELOW THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIST AND WOULD ENHANCE TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS...EVEN IF THERE IS LITTLE RAINFALL. WILL SHOW A 2 HOUR WINDOW OF VCTS FOR THIS WAVE OF ACTIVITY FROM 20-22Z...BUT TIMING IS NOT CERTAIN AT THIS POINT. THE SURFACE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS MOISTURE INCREASES. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AFTER IT FIRES ON THE DRY LINE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH THAT THIS ROUND OF ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT TAF SITES...BUT SINCE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORM WILL SHOW VCTS FROM 00Z TO 04Z. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN A MORE SOLID LINE OF STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. THIS IS WHEN UPPER FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST. WILL SHOW TSRA FROM 4Z-9Z. AFTER THAT WILL LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF TAFS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE...BUT KEEP SHOWERS MENTIONED WITH MVFR CIGS PREVAILING BEHIND THE FRONT. TR.92 && .SYNOPSIS... THE FIRST PORTION OF TODAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...WITH VERY WARM AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. ONE DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ACTIVE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...THEREAFTER...A MORE TRANQUIL PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS. && .SHORT TERM... THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION /SOME STRONG TO SEVERE/ ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AT THIS HOUR REVEALED THAT THE MAIN UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAY/S SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THIS VERY DYNAMIC TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD BEFORE CLOSING OFF LATER TODAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA BENEATH A STOUT EML THAT IS SIMULTANEOUSLY ADVECTING EASTWARD OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE EML IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ASCENT PRODUCED BY THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW /AS EVIDENCED BY 30 TO 40 METER HEIGHT FALLS/ SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION MID TO LATE MORNING MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A BOWIE TO GLEN ROSE TO KILLEEN LINE. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THREAT IN THE MORNING...SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A 100 KT UPPER LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE AND A VORTICITY LOBE ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH OUT INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. DURING THIS TIME...THE DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPEN NEAR THE BIG COUNTRY. THE STRONG LIFT...DIURNAL HEATING...AND INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD ERODE SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. VERY HIGH CAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 2500-3000 J/KG....MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 8 C/KM AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 45 TO 50 KNOTS WILL EASILY SUPPORT A LARGE AND DAMAGING HAIL THREAT. AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST...GENERALLY BEYOND A BOWIE TO MINERAL WELLS TO WACO LINE THIS AFTERNOON...THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DRIER WHICH INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. WHILE TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON...THIS THREAT ACTUALLY INCREASES DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE AND BACK IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LARGE HODOGRAPHS WHILE CINH IS STILL LOW. AN ENHANCED TORNADO RISK MAY DEVELOP ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES THAT WOULD INCLUDE THE WACO/TEMPLE/KILLEEN AREAS. UNLIKE MOST SEVERE EVENTS...WE EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO FIRE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO FOSTER AN INCREASING HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS CONTINUED ADVECTION OF WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION IS EXPECTED. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT ALL INTERESTS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS NEED TO PAY PARTICULARLY CLOSE ATTENTION TO WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HIGH IMPACT SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF LARGE HAIL...DESTRUCTIVE WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES. && .LONG TERM... ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ON MONDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW MEANDERS ACROSS THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE RED RIVER AND MAY EVEN DRIFT SOUTHWARD. STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT WARM MOIST AIR NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS. WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG CAP...EXPECT WIDESPREAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY MITIGATE THE LARGER SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON MONDAY...EXCEPT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE SOME HEATING WILL BE POSSIBLE. PERHAPS THE LARGER THREAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ON MONDAY AS PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TOWARDS THE 1.15-1.25 INCH RANGE. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES PARTICULARLY FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD TAPER OFF BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND THE UPPER FORCING DEPARTS THE REGION. COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AS THE OMEGA PATTERN ESTABLISHES ITSELF. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN MAY BE TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF MAY. 15-BAIN/TR.92 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 84 61 71 54 64 / 40 70 70 60 20 WACO, TX 85 65 76 54 67 / 50 60 50 40 10 PARIS, TX 83 57 67 53 62 / 30 70 70 70 30 DENTON, TX 83 60 67 52 64 / 40 70 70 60 20 MCKINNEY, TX 83 59 68 53 64 / 40 70 70 70 20 DALLAS, TX 85 61 70 54 64 / 40 70 70 60 20 TERRELL, TX 85 61 71 55 64 / 40 60 70 70 20 CORSICANA, TX 85 65 73 54 65 / 30 60 60 60 20 TEMPLE, TX 86 65 80 54 67 / 50 60 40 40 10 MINERAL WELLS, TX 82 62 74 55 65 / 50 70 60 40 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1003 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 .UPDATE...CORRECTED... MONITORING WHAT COULD BE A VERY ACTIVE AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THROUGH MID MORNING...SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA IN A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT. EML CAPPING/MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS LIMITING THE INTENSITY OF THIS DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY BUT IT MAY BE A FOREWARNING OF THINGS TO COME THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CAP IS FORECAST TO ERODE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ALSO BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE DRYLINE CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE BIG BEND AREA THROUGH MIDLAND WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS FAVORABLE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ORIENTATION COULD RESULT IN A VERTICALLY VEERED PROFILE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE. AS THE MORNING CLOUD COVER MIXES OUT AND CAPPING DETERIORATES BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AN AREA EAST OF DEL RIO TO SONORA WILL BE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED...BUT POTENTIALLY RAPIDLY DEVELOPING CONVECTION WITH THE PROSPECT OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POTENTIALLY SOME TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WHILE LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR...DO THINK THE DECENT SHOT AT SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD EXTEND SOUTH TO THE HWY 57 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. SINCE HI RES MODELS SUCH AS TTU WRF AND HRRR ARE KEEPING CI WELL NORTH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...DID NOT INCREASE POPS ABOVE CHC WORDING THROUGH 00Z. BUT AS SPC HAS INCLUDED THE SAME GENERAL LOCATIONS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IN THE ENHANCED RISK...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH INTO OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. AS FOR OVERNIGHT STORM POTENTIAL...PREVIOUS FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK WITH LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL RUNS. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT LINE OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS...MORE AS A STRAIGHT LINE WIND THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL AS WELL. TB && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 88 67 85 59 71 / 40 50 30 20 10 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 86 66 83 58 72 / 40 50 30 20 10 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 87 67 85 59 74 / 40 50 30 10 10 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 86 62 83 56 70 / 50 50 30 30 10 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 90 62 87 60 77 / 20 20 10 - 10 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 87 65 83 57 69 / 50 50 30 30 10 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 88 65 85 59 75 / 40 40 20 - 10 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 87 67 84 60 73 / 40 50 30 10 10 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 86 69 82 62 73 / 40 50 50 20 10 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 88 68 86 61 74 / 40 40 20 10 10 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 88 69 85 62 75 / 40 40 30 10 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...03 PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
957 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 .UPDATE... MONITORING WHAT COULD BE A VERY ACTIVE AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THROUGH MID MORNING...SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA IN A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT. EML CAPPING/MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS LIMITING THE INTENSITY OF THIS DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY BUT IT MAY BE A FOREWARNING OF THINGS TO COME THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CAP IS FORECAST TO ERODE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ALSO BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE DRYLINE CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE BIG BEND AREA THROUGH MIDLAND WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS FAVORABLE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ORIENTATION COULD RESULT IN A VERTICALLY VEERED PROFILE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE. AS THE MORNING CLOUD COVER MIXES OUT AND CAPPING DETERIORATES BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AN AREA EAST OF DEL RIO TO SONORA WILL BE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED...BUT POTENTIALLY RAPIDLY DEVELOPING CONVECTION WITH THE PROSPECT OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POTENTIALLY SOME TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THINK THE BEST SHOT AT SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ALONE COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED SEVERE CELLS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. LUCKILY...HI RES MODELS SUCH AS TTU WRF AND HRRR ARE KEEPING CI WELL NORTH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND AS SUCH...DID NOT INCREASE POPS ABOVE CHC WORDING. BUT AS SPC HAS INCLUDED THE SAME GENERAL LOCATIONS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IN THE ENHANCED RISK...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH INTO OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. AS FOR OVERNIGHT STORM POTENTIAL...PREVIOUS FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK WITH LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL RUNS. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING OF A LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT LINE OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS...MORE AS A STRAIGHT LINE WIND THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL AS WELL. TB && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/ AVIATION... THERE ARE LOW CIGS THIS MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE CASE UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND MOST OF THE EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN SAN ANTONIO AND AUSTIN...BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IN AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MORNING. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)... A HUMID AIRMASS HAS SURGED BACK NORTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING ON A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTING TO THE EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT TERM. THE DRYLINE SLOWLY MOVES TO THE EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY. THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD WILL BE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHEN UPWARD MOTION IS MAXIMIZED BY THE DRYLINE AND TROUGH AXIS PASSAGE ALONG WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY. CAPES OF 1000 TO 3000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR INDICATE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE ON MONDAY. LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)... THE FRONT CLEARS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY EVENING LEADING TO BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING LESS RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO THE EAST AND HAVE REMOVED MENTION. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS RAIN FREE AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES OVER TEXAS AND A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS INTO OUR AREA. A COOL SURFACE HIGH BRINGS WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MID WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY. THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN LEADING TO A WARMING TREND. ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE DAYS BEYOND THIS FORECAST. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 88 67 85 59 71 / 40 50 30 20 10 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 86 66 83 58 72 / 40 50 30 20 10 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 87 67 85 59 74 / 40 50 30 10 10 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 86 62 83 56 70 / 50 50 30 30 10 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 90 62 87 60 77 / 20 20 10 - 10 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 87 65 83 57 69 / 50 50 30 30 10 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 88 65 85 59 75 / 40 40 20 - 10 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 87 67 84 60 73 / 40 50 30 10 10 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 86 69 82 62 73 / 40 50 50 20 10 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 88 68 86 61 74 / 40 40 20 10 10 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 88 69 85 62 75 / 40 40 30 10 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...03 PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
410 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 410 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015 CONVECTION HAS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF CARBON COUNTY AND THE CHEYENNE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES UP FROM COLORADO. THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST PROLIFIC OUT OVER SOUTHERN CARBON COUNTY AND ARE QUITE THE LIGHTNING PRODUCERS. TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THIS AREA...WITH LOW TO MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS AS STORMS MOVE OVERHEAD SO THINK THAT SNOW LEVELS MAY BE A BIT HIGHER THAN 8000 FEET OVERALL. THE STRENGTHENING INVERTED SFC TROUGH IS KEEPING THE COLD FRONT AT BAY WHILE ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A SORT OF ZONAL SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVERHEAD. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT BOTH FEATURES ARE KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TEMPS FROM INVADING THE FORECAST AREA FOR NOW. STILL EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE MOVES OVERHEAD...WHICH WILL BRING IN COLDER AIR AND MAINTAIN PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT ESPECIALLYALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE AND WYO PLAINS. WILL SEE SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7500 FEET THIS EVENING DROPPING TO 6500 FEET OVERNIGHT...AND SHOULD MIX DOWN EVEN LOWER AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT. WILL LEAVE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NOW AS THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME FOR CONVECTION AND DEFORMATION BAND TO ACCUMULATE SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE AND SNOWY RANGES THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THE COMBINATION DEFORMATION BAND AND ALSO SOME MERIDIONAL JET ENERGY SNEAKING IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...COULD ALSO SEE UP TO 5 INCHES IN THE SIERRA MADRE AND NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...WITH AN INCH OR LESS OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF S/E WYO WITH THE COLD FRONT BY MONDAY MORNING. LIKELY TO SEE FOG OVERSPREAD THE PLAINS IN THIS PATTERN AGAIN AS WELL...SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. FOR MONDAY...THE UPPER JET WILL WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS NORTH WITH THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVERHEAD. WILL SEE SHOWERS CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE FAVORED LOCATIONS ALONG NORTHEAST FACING SLOPES OF TERRAIN FEATURES. NOT LOOKING AT SIGNIFICANT CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT SO TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE WITH DAYTIME HEATING ENOUGH TO KEEP SNOW CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SNOW MIX WITH RAIN AT TIMES THOUGH EVEN ACROSS THE PLAINS AS 700MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND MINUS 4C THROUGH THE DAY. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. HIGHS SHOULD RETURN TO THE 50S/60S BY TUESDAY. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015 UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUING. LOOKS LIKE DRY WEATHER SHOULD STAY WITH US THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. PRETTY WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AROUND +6C THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE FRONT INTO THE AREA AROUND 06Z FRIDAY (THURSDAY NIGHT) WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES. FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL NEAR THE WYOMING/COLORADO BORDER FRIDAY AND PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF PAINTING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD QPF ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS FRONT OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. FREEZING LINE WELL NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING...SO DO THINK MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1149 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015 IFR TO MVFR ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HRRR GUIDANCE USED FOR THE 18Z TAFS WHICH SHOWS AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE STAYING IFR THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A LIFT TO MVFR OUT IN THE PANHANDLE FOR KAIA AND KCDR AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY RAPID DETERIORATION AFTER SUNSET WITH DENSE FOG DEVELOPING IN THE PANHANDLE...PERSISTING INTO MONDAY LATE MORNING. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 410 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015 NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK AS A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW ARE EXPECTED INTO MONDAY. MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MIDWEEK WITH DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TRENDING LOWER TOWARDS THE 20 PERCENT RANGE ON WEDNESDAY. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT MONDAY FOR WYZ114-116. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RJM LONG TERM...GCC AVIATION...GCC FIRE WEATHER...RJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1149 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1042 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015 MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES THIS MORNING NEAR THE WYO/COLO/NEB BORDERS WITH LIGHT RAIN ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE PLAINS. AREAS OF FOG WERE ALSO OBSERVED IN STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE FROM SIDNEY TO SUMMIT...WITH PATCHY FOG FURTHER NORTH AS WELL. HAVE NOT RECEIVED ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING ISSUES WITHIN THE AREA OF MODERATE RAIN SO FAR...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AREA AS PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER WEST ACROSS CARBON AND PORTIONS OF ALBANY COUNTIES...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE MORNING. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING NORTH ACROSS COLORADO...WITH CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS AND POINTS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULD FIRE UP ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE CURRENT AREA OF ACTIVITY SHIFTS NORTH...WITH CONVECTIVE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS WELL WHERE MID/LLVL LAPSE RATES ARE BETWEEN 6 AND 8 C/KM WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY PRESENT. WILL SEE A FEW TSTORMS AS WELL WITHIN THESE AREAS OF CONVECTION. BASED ON THIS MORNINGS SOUNDINGS AND 700 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO DECREASE A DEGREE OR TWO THRU THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE INCOMING WAVE...THINK SNOW LEVELS TODAY WILL HOVER AROUND 8000 FEET ON AVERAGE. THEY COULD DROP TO BETWEEN 7000 AND 7500 FEET IN AREAS OF STRONGER CONVECTION THO. THE MORE PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD SET UP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH PERHAPS A BAND OF ACTIVITY EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CHEYENNE RIDGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW RATES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE SUMMIT...WITH RAIN FURTHER EAST. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR NOW...WITH MOST OF THE ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEFINITELY CAN SEE SOME CONVECTIVE SNOW REACHING THE VALLEY FLOORS ACROSS ALBANY AND CARBON COUNTIES...WITH SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ON GRASSY SURFACES AND ROADS NEAR ARLINGTON/ELK MOUNTAIN TO RAWLINS IF HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTORMS MOVE INTO THESE AREAS. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE LARAMIE VALLEY...INCLUDING LARAMIE MAY SEE JUST ENOUGH DOWNSLOPE TO KEEP PRECIP CHANCES LOWER BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS AND WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST AS NEEDED. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015 CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK WITH CURRENT KCYS RADAR LOOP SHOWING MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...AND SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW WEST OF THE I25 CORRIDOR. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN NOW APPEARS TO BE SNOWLEVELS...WHICH HAVE BEEN LOWER THAN ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. THE I80 SUMMIT HAS BEEN REPORTING SNOW AND LOW VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY SNOW FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. EVEN LARAMIE AIRPORT IS DOWN TO 35 DEGREES AND HEAVY RAIN...SO SNOWLEVELS ARE LIKELY BETWEEN 7500 TO 8000 FEET BY NOW. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LARGE AREA OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE THROUGH NOON SUNDAY OVER MOST OF THE HIGH PLAINS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. BELIEVE THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM DENVER TO THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL EXPAND NORTH AND WEST TODAY. WITH SNOW STARTING TO ACCUMULATE ACROSS THE I80 SUMMIT...ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND SNOWY RANGES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT 5 TO 10 INCHES OF WET SNOW ACROSS THESE AREAS. ALTHOUGH SNOW ACCUMULATION ON THE ROADS MAY BE LIMITED...BELIEVE THE COMBINATION OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO SNOW AND FOG WILL MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS OVER THE I80 SUMMIT. IN ADDITION...ANY ADDITIONAL COOLING AND HEAVY SNOW MAY CREATE SLICK CONDITIONS ABOVE 7500 FEET. DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE SNOWING ALL THE TIME...WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG IN BETWEEN PERIODS OF SNOWFALL DUE TO MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW. TONIGHT AND MONDAY...MODELS SHOW THE DEFORMATION BAND REMAINING OVER AND JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A CONTINUATION OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SNOWLEVELS LOWER TO AROUND 6000 FEET BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THANKFULLY...PRECIP RATES DO NOT APPEAR VERY HIGH WITH THE DEFORMATION BAND...SO EXPECT MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 6000 TO 7500 FEET. NOT COMPLETELY CONVINCED THAT THIS STORM WILL SLIP BY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY MONDAY DUE TO THE STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST. WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS SYSTEM TO SEE IF IT EVENTUALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO TEXAS. DID NOTE THAT THE NEW GFS RUN HAS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW A BIT FURTHER NORTH...AND ANY NORTHEAST DRIFT WILL RESULT IN MORE PRECIP THROUGH MONDAY. GRADUALLY LOWERED POP THROUGH MONDAY...BUT KEPT A MENTION OF SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WEAKENS. MODELS INDICATE A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS MOVING INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION FOR TUESDAY...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. KEPT POP BELOW 10 PERCENT ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS 60S. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 259 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015 AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE WARM AND ON THE DRY SIDE. UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY MID WEEK. WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY NICE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WEST AND 70S INTO THE PLAINS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. UPPER RIDGE WILL FOLD OVER INTO THE PLAINS BY THURSDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SKIRTING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A REMOTE POSSIBILITY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT CURRENTLY THINKING THE MODELS ARE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE...AS IT WILL LIKELY SHEAR APART AS IT MOVES INTO THE RIDGE. AT ANY RATE...MOST PLACES WILL STAY DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH BREEZY WEST FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE AREA. DOWNSLOPING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WARMING ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A BIT COOLER FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT BUT CURRENTLY EXPECTING THE FRONT TO BE WEAKER THAN THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING SO KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE VALUES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY) ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015 IFR TO MVFR ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HRRR GUIDANCE USED FOR THE 18Z TAFS WHICH SHOWS AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE STAYING IFR THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A LIFT TO MVFR OUT IN THE PANHANDLE FOR KAIA AND KCDR AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY RAPID DETERIORATION AFTER SUNSET WITH DENSE FOG DEVELOPING IN THE PANHANDLE...PERSISTING INTO MONDAY LATE MORNING. FOG AND LOW CEILINGS WITH RAIN WILL BE PREVALENT EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE INTO THE PLAINS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH DENSE FOG POSSIBLY DEVELOPING LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS PRECIPITATION BECOME LIGHT. LOW CEILINGS AND FOG MAY PERSIST WELL INTO MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015 NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW ARE EXPECTED INTO MONDAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL TREND MUCH HIGHER THIS WEEKEND WITH RECOVERIES NEAR 90 PERCENT...AND DAYTIME HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 60 TO 80 PERCENT. DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL TREND LOWER LATER NEXT WEEK...RANGING BETWEEN 25 TO 35 PERCENT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT MONDAY FOR WYZ114-116. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...RJM SHORT TERM...TJT LONG TERM...SML AVIATION...CLH FIRE WEATHER...TJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
304 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY) ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 ANOTHER CHILLY START TO THE DAY IS ON TAP...WITH MID 30S AND PATCHY FROST TO START THE DAY NORTH OF I-74. HOWEVER, A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS ILLINOIS FROM NE TO SW WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR. THE HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE 850-925MB LAYER ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE NAM AND GFS. FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS FORMATION WILL BE MORE CONCENTRATED THERE... BUT SUNSHINE SHOULD STILL BE THE RULE FOR THE DAY IN MOST AREAS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID 60S NEAR INDIANA AND THE UPPER 60S WEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING HEIGHTS WILL PEAK BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH OUR HIGHER WIND GUSTS FOR THE DAY. A FEW GUSTS MAY REACH 16-17 MPH... BUT OVERALL WINDS SHOULD BE LESS GUSTY THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. && .LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 INITIAL CONCERN FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS WITH RAIN POTENTIAL MID WEEK. UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS NORTHEAST TO HUDSON BAY PROGGED BY ALL MODELS TO CARVE OUT A SIZABLE CLOUDS LOW OVER ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY...DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MIDWEST BY THURSDAY MORNING. GFS IS A BIT FURTHER EAST WITH THIS PROJECTION...WITH GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORING A PATH ALONG THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA BORDER. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COLD CORE WITH THE UPPER LOW (500 MB TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW -20C) INTRODUCES SOME STEEP LAPSE RATES. ALSO MENTIONED SOME ISOLATED THUNDER AS WELL. HAVE LINGERED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POP`S ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE LOW SETTLING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...HAVE ALSO MENTIONED SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF I-57 CLOSER TO THE LOW TRACK. FURTHER OUT IN TIME...UPPER FLOW SHIFTS MORE ZONAL TO START THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING A TROUGH MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER...WITH THE ECMWF DEVELOPING MORE OF A BROADENING EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE GFS REMAINS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND CLOSER TO THE BORDER. STILL NOT VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RAIN POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY...AND HAVE PULLED BACK SOME ON THE POP`S. SATURDAY NIGHT...HAVE FOLLOWED MORE OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF A POTENTIAL MCS SYSTEM ROLLING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE BROADENING TROUGH APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE GENERAL IDEA FOR TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITH WARMING CONDITIONS... ALTHOUGH A BRIEF COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES DIP CLOSER TO 0C AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES. HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THRU THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THRU TUESDAY BRINGING ONLY A SCATTERING OF CLOUDS AND A NORTHEAST FLOW. LATEST MODEL DATA PULLING BACK A BIT ON THE AMOUNT OF MIXING EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON RESULTING IN LIGHTER WINDS THAN WHAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED OVER THE AREA THE PAST FEW AFTERNOONS. LOOK FOR A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND TONIGHT TO BECOME NORTHEAST TUESDAY AT 8 TO 13 KTS...AND THEN A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FOR TOMORROW NIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS DROPPING TO 5 KTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SHIMON LONG TERM...GEELHART AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1112 PM MDT MON APR 27 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 1255 PM MDT MON APR 27 2015 LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE SCALE CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER TX PANHANDLE WITH MID LEVEL VORTICITY ROTATING THROUGH OK/SOUTHER KS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO BUILD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA..ALONG WITH FALLING TDS. THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...RADAR SHOWS BULK OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP ALONG KS/OK BORDER TRANSITING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME LIGHT RETURNS ROTATING NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. BASED ON INCREASING TD DEPRESSION OVER THE CWA...AND AXIS OF FORCING/BETTER MOISTURE WELL SOUTH...ANY OF THESE LIGHT RETURNS WOULD LIKELY BE VIRGA AT MOST THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR WITH BUILDING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. GOOD RADIATION CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOCATIONS IN OUR CWA TO REACH FREEZING (POSSIBLY LOWER) TONIGHT...THOUGH WITH AN INCREASE IN TD VALUES ADVERTISED FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE WE MAY NOT FALL AS MUCH. WET GROUND CONDITIONS COULD ALSO KEEP TD VALUES FROM DROPPING AS MUCH AS ADVERTISED WHICH SEEMS TO ALREADY BE THE CASE THIS AFTERNOON. TUESDAY...H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST AND TEMPS ALOFT WILL MODERATE A LITTLE...AND BETTER DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS IN THE 60S/NEAR 70 FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. THERE IS STILL A SECONDARY H3 JET PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND A LIGHT PRECIP SIGNAL WITH SOME GUIDANCE IN OUR NORTH. I STILL CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE IN OUR NORTHEAST WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AS MID LEVEL VORT MAX PASSES TO THE NORTH AND COLD POOL DEVELOPS...BUT MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. IN THE END THIS MAY JUST BE VIRGA AND LITTLE ELSE. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT MON APR 27 2015 GOING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...H5/H7 RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ENTIRE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS THRU MIDWEEK. MODELS TREND THIS RIDGE TO FLATTEN... AND ALLOW FOR ZONAL FLOW FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK ON INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS TO ENSUE INTO THURSDAY...BUT WITH RIDGE FLATTENING ALLOWING ZONAL FLOW...THE AREA WILL SEE A SEVERAL 700MB SHORTWAVES WORKING OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS REGION. EACH SUBSEQUENT SYSTEM WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR RW/TRW...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AT THE END OF THE WEEK. SURFACE LEE- SIDE TROUGHS WILL WORK OFF THE FRONT RANGE WITH EACH SYSTEM...PROVIDING ENHANCEMENT FOR TRW TO FORM...ESPECIALLY FOR THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HRS. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED WILL RANGE ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH HIGH/LOWS. 850 TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S...ON UP TO 80F IN SPOTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...WITH SOME L50S POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL/COULD BE TEMPERED SOME BY THE EXTENT OF CLOUDS FROM EXPECTED PRECIP. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1111 PM MDT MON APR 27 2015 VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES IN ITS WAKE. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...JN AVIATION...024
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
329 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. A BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS FOR THIS TERM. 06Z SFC/UPPER ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRES SLOWLY MOVING SE OF NOVA SCOTIA W/SHOWERS MOVING SSW BUT NOW DISSIPATING. JET MAX OF 40-50 KT FROM 850-700MBS HELPING TO TRIGGER THE SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION THIS MORNING AND THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. WV SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED ANOTHER SPOKE OF ENERGY THAT WILL AID THESE SHOWERS TO MOVE SSW TODAY FROM THE MARITIMES. THE LATEST RUN OF THE 3KM HRRR AND THE NAM MATCHING UP WELL W/THE LATEST CONDITIONS AS THE GFS. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO INCREASE THE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS AND EXPAND THE AREAL COVERAGE AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WERE DOWN IN THE MID 30S IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS W/DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 30S. PRECIP COULD FALL AS A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN OR EVEN SOME SLEET THIS MORNING BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM LATER THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 40S AND 50S BY THE AFTERNOON WILL PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN. SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE LLVLS ESPECIALLY IN THE 0-3KM LAYER W/0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS. WINDS WERE INCREASED TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SETUP. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF INTO EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LLVL CONVERGENCE AND MID LEVEL FORCING WEAKEN. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP BACK INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT W/RAIN FOR THE MOST PART. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SAY ABOVE 1000 FT AS SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES W/EASTERN AREAS NEAR THE MAINE-NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER SEEING UP TO 0.25 INCHES. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WE COULD STILL SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND INTO WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT THE UPPER LOW TO BE REPLACED BY RIDGING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGHS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WE COULD BE LOOKING AT HIGHS REACHING CLOSE TO 70 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR THIS MORNING W/PERIODS OF VFR. MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO RETURN FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WHILE KBGR AND KBHB ARE EXPECTED TO SEE CONDITIONS GO TO VFR. ALL TERMINALS TO EXPERIENCE VFR INTO EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN CONDITIONS COULD DROP BACK TO MVFR BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOWER CIGS MOVING IN FROM NEW BRUNSWICK. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS RIGHT SCA LEVELS AND WINDS TO PICK UP AFTER 12Z(8AM). THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL STAY AS IS FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED A FEW MORE HRS W/THAT SECOND SURGE OF WIND MENTIONED ABOVE. SOME OF THE SOUNDING DATA ESPECIALLY THE NAM SHOW A BRIEF SURGE OF WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY AT THE JONESPORT BUOY(44027). THIS SURGE LOOKS LIKE IT DROPS OFF AFTER 00Z(8PM) AS WINDS DROP OFF TO 15-20 KTS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DOWN TO 2-4 FT. SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS MAY THEN INCREASE THE SMALL CRAFT LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND AS AN OCEAN STORM TRACKS TO OUR EAST. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT SHORT TERM...DUDA LONG TERM...DUDA AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1227 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. A BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 1215 AM UPDATE...03Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRES SPINNING SE OF NOVA SCOTIA AND SLOWLY PULLING AWAY. PRES GRADIENT STILL HOLDING AND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED SHOWERS DROPPING SSW FROM NEW BRUNSWICK. THE 3KM HRRR AND NAM12 HAD THE SHOWERS HANDLED WELL AND THE BEST CONVERGENCE IS SHOWN TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AREAS OVERNIGHT. POPS WERE ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SETUP AND RAISED PERCENTAGES FROM NE MAINE DOWN INTO INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.10". TEMPERATURES COOLING AS THE LATEST READING ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WERE IN THE UPPER 30S W/DEWPOINTS DOWN IN THE UPPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. NAM SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FURTHER COOLING OF THE COLUMN THROUGH 09Z ALLOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN THE RAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST. FOR TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS PLAGUED THE REGION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW TOMORROW, BUT WITH THE LOW SHIFTED FURTHER EAST, MOST OF THE SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE CONFINED TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. IT`LL BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY AS WELL SINCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN FAIRLY COMPACT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... STILL A COUPLE OF TURNS AND WEAK SPOKES OF S/WV ENERGY LEFT WITH A VERY SLOWLY DEPARTING MID LVL VORTEX INTO THE OPEN N ATLC FROM ERN NOVA SCOTIA...MEANING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHWRS IS POSSIBLE FROM ENE TO WSW ACROSS THE FA TUE NGT. AFTWRDS...SLOW...BUT MORE GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO WX CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA...AT LEAST WITH REGARD TO LITTLE OR NO SHWR ACTIVITY WED INTO THU...AND AT LEAST A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE AS WEAK FLOW ALF REPLACES THE UPPER LOW. FCST HI TEMPS...WHICH WE INDICATE TO BE SLIGHTLY BLO AVG BOTH DAYS MAY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE WE GET...CONSIDERING THE SUN AT MIDDAY THIS TM OF YEAR IS AS HIGH IN THE SKY AS MID AUG. OTHERWISE...CLD CVR WILL CONT TO KEEP OVRNGT LOWS TUE NGT AND WED NGT A LITTLE MILDER THAN AVG. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... BOTH THE DTMNSTC 12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SLOWLY TAKING A SFC LOW TRACKING OFF THE SE COAST ENE WELL S OF THE GULF OF ME FROM THU NGT INTO SAT. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONT TO SLOWLY IMPROVE...WITH BOTH HI AND LOW TEMPS GRADUALLY WARMING...SPCLY SUN AND MON WHEN S/WV RIDGING ALF BEGINS BUILDING OVR NEW ENG AHEAD OF A NEW APCHG S/WV TROF SYSTEM APCHG FROM THE GREAT LKS. WE CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF SHWRS LATE SUN AFTN INTO MON MORN MSLY ACROSS THE N WITH SOME S/WV ENERGY TOPPING THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...BUT NOTHING LIKE THE TM CVRG THEY OCCURRED LAST WEEKEND INTO ERLY THIS WEEK...AND WITH LESS WIND AND MUCH MILDER TEMPS (I.E...SPRINGLIKE...IF WE DARE SAY). && .AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR AND OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AFTERNOON. NORTHERN TERMINALS MAY APPROACH IFR CIGS BUT HAVE KEPT CIGS AROUND 1500FT FOR NOW. AFTER 18Z, EXPECT CIGS TO RISE TO VFR CATEGORY. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH NEXT 24 HOURS OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 22-30KTS DURING THE DAY. SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY VFR ALL TAF SITES...XCPT MVFR CLGS WITH SHWRS POSSIBLE TUE NGT...MSLY NRN TAF SITES. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT DUE TO WIND GUSTS HAVING INCREASED ABOVE 25KTS SOONER THAN ANTICIPATED. GUSTS WILL REMAIN AROUND 30 KT WITH WAVES 5 TO 7 FEET EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE A BIT TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST UNDER SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. SHORT TO LONG TERM: INITIALLY...NEAR SCA CONDITIONS XPCTD TUE NGT INTO WED MORN...THE WINDS AND WVS SUBSIDE LATER WED INTO THE LATE WEEK. THE NEXT POTENTIAL OF SCA CONDITIONS MAY BE LONG PD SWELL WVS FRI NGT INTO ERLY SUN FROM A RELATIVELY DISTANT SFC LOW TRACKING EWRD S OF THE GULF OF ME. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS...XCPT WENT A LITTLE BLO GUIDANCE LATE FRI INTO ERLY SUN MORN ATTM FOR SWELL IMPACTS FROM THE LOW TRACKING WELL S OF THE WATERS. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
455 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 453 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM IA TO JAMES BAY...SANDWICHED BTWN A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND CONTINUED BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ENCOMPASSING SE CANADA AND THE NE CONUS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS SUPPORTING SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE UPPER LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. TO THE W...APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF IS ACCOMAPANIED BY A BAND OF SHRA IN NW MN. APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF WILL REACH WRN UPPER MI LATE AFTN/EVENING. WITH DEEP LAYER FORCING WEAKENING PER QVECTORS...A LACK OF MOISTURE INFLOW...AND A VERY DRY ANTECEDANT AIR MASS PER 00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS...MOST OF THE MODELS APPEAR ON TRACK SHOWING APPROACHING PCPN DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. SO...PLAN TO MAINTAIN A DRY FCST. SECOND SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING INTO NRN MANITOBA WILL MOVE INTO NRN ONTARIO AND THEN BEGIN DIGGING MORE SHARPLY TO THE S TONIGHT WITH MODELS SUGGESTING A MID LEVEL LOW BEGINNING TO CLOSE OFF JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AN EXPANSION OF PCPN N AND E OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...CLOSER TO GREATEST HEIGHT FALLS. PCPN MAY TRY TO DEVELOP S INTO UPPER MI...BUT LACK OF DEEP FORCING HERE SUGGESTS DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE THRU THE NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...WEAK PRES GRADIENT TODAY WILL ALLOW LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE BOARD...LEADING TO COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG THE LAKES. IT WILL BE COOLEST IN THE ERN FCST AREA ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE DUE TO ONSHORE WINDS THRU THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S THERE. IN THE INTERIOR...FAVORED THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THAT WARMER GUIDANCE HAS VERIFIED BETTER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. EXPECT HIGHEST TEMPS IN THE INTERIOR W WHERE MAX READINGS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. DEEP MIXING IN THE INTERIOR WILL TAP DRIER AIR ALOFT...RESULTING IN AFTN DWPTS IN THE MID 20S...PERHAPS LOWER. THIS WILL SEND RH DOWN TO AROUND 20PCT IN THE INTERIOR W. FROM A FIRE WX STANDOINT...FORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN HARD TO COME BY IN THE LONG TERM AS THE AREA WILL BE DOMINATED BY A SFC RIDGE AT LEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. AN UPPER WAVE WILL TRANSIT THE CENTRAL OR ERN CWA WED INTO WED NIGHT...BUT WILL BE LACKING MOISTURE SUFFICIENT FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN E AND POSSIBLY SOME SPRINKLES OVER THE NCENTRAL (AIDED BY UPSLOPE FORCING) WED INTO WED NIGHT. THE NAM SHOWS THE MOST QPF BUT IT IS ALSO STRONGEST WITH THE WAVE AND HAS BEEN SUBSTANTIALLY OVERDOING LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE LATELY. N WINDS OF 10-15MPH GUSTING TO 20MPH WILL KEEP LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE LOCATIONS COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE 40S. INLAND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S. SFC RIDGING TAKES MOVES SQUARELY BACK OVER THE CWA ON THU BEFORE MOVING OUT ON FRI EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THU WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPS TO WED AS N-NE FLOW CONTINUES...BUT SW-W FLOW AND AN OVERALL MUCH WARMER AIRMASS ON FRI WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S E AND THE 60S W. THANKFULLY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ON FRI...WHICH WILL HELP OFFSET FIRE RISK AS RH VALUES DROP INTO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE FAR W LATE FRI AS DYING SHORTWAVE MOVES TOWARD THE CWA WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE CWA SAT THROUGH MON...BUT PRECIP POTENTIAL ON SAT LOOKS LOW. FOR SUN AND MON...BETTER MOISTURE ALONG WITH STRONGER SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND BETTER WAA FORCING WILL MAKE FOR BETTER PRECIP CHANCES. EXACT AMOUNTS/TIMING IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS HARD TO PIN DOWN AT THAT TIME RANGE. DOES LOOK LIKE TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE 70S IN SOME SPOTS SAT INTO MON...BUT THAT IS ALSO DEPENDENT ON SHORTWAVE TRACK/PRECIP/CLOUD COVER. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WITH DAYTIME LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS DOMINATING WINDS AND WIND DIRECTIONS. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 453 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE LIGHT...UNDER 15KT...THRU THIS EVENING AS SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA GIVES WAY TO A VERY WEAK LOW PRES TROF THAT WILL PASS LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. IN ITS WAKE... ANOTHER HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER HUDSON BAY AND EXTEND A RIDGE S INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WED/THU. AS THE HIGH BEGINS RIDGING S INTO THE UPPER LAKES LATE TONIGHT/WED...NNW WINDS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY GUST TO AROUND 20KT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER THE W. WITH WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER LAKES THU THRU SAT...WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT...MOSTLY UNDER 15KT. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...TITUS AVIATION...JLB MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
307 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO SRN JAMES BAY. TO THE E...A MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES/NRN NEW ENGLAND COAST EXTENDS BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND WRAPS SOME MOISTURE BACK INTO THE UPPER LAKES. AS OF 19Z...W EDGE OF THE STRATOCU DECK FM THIS MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW RUNS FROM ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE FAR ERN COUNTIES OF UPPER MI. CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED INTO CENTRAL UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT WITH THE MID-LVL AND SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR EXCEPT PARTLY CLOUDY EAST WHERE THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FOR CLOUDS ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRES TROUGH AT LEAST INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TONIGHT TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE INTERIOR WEST WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL MAXIMIZED DUE TO CALM WINDS UNDER AXIS OF SFC RIDGE AND PWATS OF .25 INCH OR LESS. ELSEWHERE MIN TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 30S. ON TUESDAY...MODELS INDICATE SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NRN PLAINS BUT SHOW BEST Q-VECT CONV AND MID-LVL MOISTURE ASSOC WITH SHORTWAVE GENERALLY LIFTING NORTH AND WEST OF UPPER MI. MODELS HINT THAT PERHAPS THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA COULD SEE SOME SPRINKLES/-SHRA TUE EVENING. BUT GIVEN THE DRYNESS OF THE AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE WL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FCST THROUGH 00Z WED BUT REFLECT EXPECTED INCREASE IN MID-LVL CLOUDS ALONG WEAK COLD-FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN GRIDS. HIGH TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST COULD REACH INTO THE MID 60S...BUT DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS UNDER WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER (IN THE 50S) ALONG THE GREAT LAKES AND EAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN HARD TO COME BY IN THE LONG TERM AS THE AREA WILL BE DOMINATED BY A SFC RIDGE AT LEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. AN UPPER WAVE WILL TRANSIT THE CENTRAL OR ERN CWA WED INTO WED NIGHT...BUT WILL BE LACKING MOISTURE SUFFICIENT FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN E AND POSSIBLY SOME SPRINKLES OVER THE NCENTRAL (AIDED BY UPSLOPE FORCING) WED INTO WED NIGHT. THE NAM SHOWS THE MOST QPF BUT IT IS ALSO STRONGEST WITH THE WAVE AND HAS BEEN SUBSTANTIALLY OVERDOING LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE LATELY. N WINDS OF 10-15MPH GUSTING TO 20MPH WILL KEEP LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE LOCATIONS COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE 40S. INLAND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S. SFC RIDGING TAKES MOVES SQUARELY BACK OVER THE CWA ON THU BEFORE MOVING OUT ON FRI EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THU WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPS TO WED AS N-NE FLOW CONTINUES...BUT SW-W FLOW AND AN OVERALL MUCH WARMER AIRMASS ON FRI WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S E AND THE 60S W. THANKFULLY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ON FRI...WHICH WILL HELP OFFSET FIRE RISK AS RH VALUES DROP INTO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE FAR W LATE FRI AS DYING SHORTWAVE MOVES TOWARD THE CWA WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE CWA SAT THROUGH MON...BUT PRECIP POTENTIAL ON SAT LOOKS LOW. FOR SUN AND MON...BETTER MOISTURE ALONG WITH STRONGER SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND BETTER WAA FORCING WILL MAKE FOR BETTER PRECIP CHANCES. EXACT AMOUNTS/TIMING IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS HARD TO PIN DOWN AT THAT TIME RANGE. DOES LOOK LIKE TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE 70S IN SOME SPOTS SAT INTO MON...BUT THAT IS ALSO DEPENDENT ON SHORTWAVE TRACK/PRECIP/CLOUD COVER. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WITH DAYTIME LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS DOMINATING WINDS AND WIND DIRECTIONS. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015 AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS E ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL FALL OFF TO MOSTLY UNDER 10KT ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE. ON TUE...WINDS WILL BE UNDER 15KT AS THE RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A WEAK LOW PRES TROF THAT PASSES TUE NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...ANOTHER HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE S FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WED/THU. AS THE HIGH BEGINS RIDGING S INTO THE UPPER LAKES WED...WINDS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY GUST TO NEAR 20KT ONCE AGAIN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER THE W. WITH WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER LAKES THU INTO SAT...WIND SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNDER 15KT. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...VOSS LONG TERM...TITUS AVIATION...JLB MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
129 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO SRN JAMES BAY. TO THE E...A MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES/NRN NEW ENGLAND COAST EXTENDS BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND WRAPS SOME MOISTURE BACK INTO THE UPPER LAKES. AS OF 19Z...W EDGE OF THE STRATOCU DECK FM THIS MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW RUNS FROM ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE FAR ERN COUNTIES OF UPPER MI. CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED INTO CENTRAL UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT WITH THE MID-LVL AND SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR EXCEPT PARTLY CLOUDY EAST WHERE THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FOR CLOUDS ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRES TROUGH AT LEAST INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TONIGHT TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE INTERIOR WEST WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL MAXIMIZED DUE TO CALM WINDS UNDER AXIS OF SFC RIDGE AND PWATS OF .25 INCH OR LESS. ELSEWHERE MIN TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 30S. ON TUESDAY...MODELS INDICATE SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NRN PLAINS BUT SHOW BEST Q-VECT CONV AND MID-LVL MOISTURE ASSOC WITH SHORTWAVE GENERALLY LIFTING NORTH AND WEST OF UPPER MI. MODELS HINT THAT PERHAPS THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA COULD SEE SOME SPRINKLES/-SHRA TUE EVENING. BUT GIVEN THE DRYNESS OF THE AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE WL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FCST THROUGH 00Z WED BUT REFLECT EXPECTED INCREASE IN MID-LVL CLOUDS ALONG WEAK COLD-FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN GRIDS. HIGH TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST COULD REACH INTO THE MID 60S...BUT DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS UNDER WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER (IN THE 50S) ALONG THE GREAT LAKES AND EAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015 A RIDGE (FROM HIGH PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA) WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES EVEN AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE FIRST WAVE AND DECAYING COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CWA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD (TUESDAY NIGHT)...BUT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LOOK LIMITED AND THE BEST MID LEVEL FORCING SLIDES TO THE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AT THIS POINT...DIDN/T FEEL STRONGLY ENOUGH TO ADD ANY POPS IN FOR THE LAND AREAS (KEPT OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR)...BUT IT MAY BE A SITUATION WHERE WE MIGHT HAVE TO ADD SOME SPRINKLES TO THE FORECAST OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THAT FIRST WAVE...ANOTHER WAVE (CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE IN NORTHERN ALBERTA) WILL DIVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND AFFECTING THE EASTERN U.P. ON WEDNESDAY. ONCE AGAIN...WITH LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...ANY PRECIP WILL BE TIED TO THE MOISTURE INDICATED BELOW 850MB ON THE MODELS. THERE IS SOME LIFT IN THAT REGION...TIED TO THE POCKET OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...BUT WOULDN/T EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN CLOUDS AND A FEW SPRINKLES. WITH THIS WAVE LOOKING MUCH STRONGER THAN THE FIRST...WILL ADD SOME SPRINKLES OVER THE EAST AND NORTH CENTRAL (WHICH MAY HAVE SOME UPSLOPE HELP) FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING EAST ON FRIDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY WILL KEEP TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS CLOUDS DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. THEN...AS WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES UNDER DEEP MIXING (TO 800-750MB) AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EAST AND PARTLY CLOUDY WEST. FORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND OFFSET THE LOWER RH (UPPER 20S TO MID 30S) AS THE U.P. IS IN ITS CRITICAL TIME BEFORE GREEN-UP. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING EAST...THE REGION WILL TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND POTENTIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK. THAT WILL PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVES BRUSH THE AREA. TIMING THESE WAVES IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT IN THESE SITUATIONS...SO WILL SHOW SOME SLIGHT CHANCES (ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST) ASSOCIATED WITH TWO WAVES QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SUNDAY LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT...WITH ANOTHER WAVE POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THIS WAVE...WHETHER IT STAYS NORTH OR MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BUT THERE THEY INDICATE ENOUGH BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION TO SUPPORT SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WITH DAYTIME LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS DOMINATING WINDS AND WIND DIRECTIONS. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015 AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS E ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL FALL OFF TO MOSTLY UNDER 10KT ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE. ON TUE...WINDS WILL BE UNDER 15KT AS THE RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A WEAK LOW PRES TROF THAT PASSES TUE NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...ANOTHER HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE S FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WED/THU. AS THE HIGH BEGINS RIDGING S INTO THE UPPER LAKES WED...WINDS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY GUST TO NEAR 20KT ONCE AGAIN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER THE W. WITH WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER LAKES THU INTO SAT...WIND SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNDER 15KT. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...VOSS LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...JLB MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
306 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 LATEST MSAS THIS MORNING WAS SHOWING A RELATIVELY WEAK THERMAL BNDRY EXTENDING FROM N-CNTRL ND INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE PUSHING TO THE SE. HIRES HRRR PUTS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BNDRY MOVING INTO THE NRN CWA IN A MATTER OF HOURS THE THRU THE REST OF THE CWA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. GIVEN WEAK CAA DECENT MIXING...SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH LOW 70S THIS AFTN...AND FOR WEDNESDAY MET/MAV ARE SIMILAR WITH LOW 70S. ON THURSDAY...WITH INCREASING 1000-500MB THKNS BUILDING IN...PREFER WARMER MAV VALUES WITH MID/UPPER 70S. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...SMALL POPS IN PLACE OVER THE NRN CWA WHEN ANOTHER WEAK SFC BNDRY MOVES IN. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 GFS/ECM SHOWING POSSIBLE PCPN THRU THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED PDS. POST-FRONTAL PCPN ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DISSIPATES ON FRIDAY AS SFC BNDRY PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH. LLVL MOISTURE RETURN/STOUT 305K UPGLIDE DRIVING PCPN CHANCES THEN SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...INCREASING MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO CNTRL PLAINS. BNDRY MOVES SOUTH OF THE CWA ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEE LONG TERM...DEE AVIATION...KERN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1145 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015 .AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN W/ LOW VFR CEILINGS CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN OK AND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FOCUS TOWARD SE OK INTO WESTERN AR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LOWER CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS KMLC/KFSM SITES LATER TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING W/ CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND A RETURN TO VFR LEVELS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/ ..UPDATE... DISCUSSION... CONSISTENT CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE HRRR VALIDATE LEAVING THE CURRENT HIGH POPS AS THEY ARE IN THE FORECAST. INTERESTINGLY... THERE CONTINUES TO BE A FAIRLY STEEP GRADIENT OF POPS ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS IS WELL REPRESENTED IN THE CURRENT RADAR DATA AS DRY AIR MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS APPEAR TO REMAIN ON TRACK AS WELL... SO WILL ONLY UPDATE THE ZFP TO IMPROVE THE WORDING AT THIS TIME. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/ AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NE OK W/ A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEARER KMLC. VFR TO PERIODIC MVFR CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE EVENING. PRECIP WILL EXPAND AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUES MORNING WITH LOWERING CEILINGS FOR SE OK / WESTERN AR. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/ DISCUSSION... A LARGE RAIN SHIELD IS ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AT THIS HOUR AS A MID-LEVEL LOW SPINS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THE RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL TAPER ON TUESDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND AN INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH. THERE COULD BE A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THAT COULD SEE UPWARDS OF THREE INCHES OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH COULD LEAD LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REIGNS SUPREME. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ALSO TAKE PLACE DURING THIS TIME-FRAME. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND AS THE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 47 64 47 74 / 90 30 0 10 FSM 48 60 44 73 / 90 70 10 10 MLC 49 59 46 72 / 80 50 10 10 BVO 45 67 44 75 / 70 20 0 10 FYV 45 60 40 69 / 80 40 10 10 BYV 45 60 43 69 / 40 30 10 10 MKO 47 62 44 71 / 90 50 0 10 MIO 45 65 44 72 / 50 20 0 10 F10 48 61 46 71 / 90 50 10 10 HHW 50 58 44 71 / 90 60 10 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
403 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 .SHORT TERM... THE COLD RAIN EVENT WILL WIND DOWN TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW SPINS EAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS MORE OR LESS MAINTAINING CURRENT INTENSITY. THE UPPER LOW DIPPED MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN FORECASTS 24 HOURS AGO... PERHAPS BY AS MUCH AS 100+ MILES...AND WAS CENTERED JUST EAST OF SWEETWATER AT 08Z. THIS SOUTHWARD TRACK HAD A LARGE IMPACT ON THE RAIN SHIELD OVERNIGHT. IT ALSO WILL IMPACT A WEAKENING DEFORMATION ZONE LIGHT PRECIPITATION AXIS THAT STILL WAS SPREADING LIGHT SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WELL NORTH OF THE PRIMARY RAIN SHIELD. SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS EDGE THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD EAST BUT ALSO ARE LATCHING ONTO THE DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS TODAY. WE ARE RELUCTANT TO BUY INTO THE WET LOOKING HRRR RUN...WHICH KEEPS SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA MOST OF THE DAY...BUT HAVE TRENDED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER CHANCES FURTHER WEST AND A BIT LATER IN THE DAY THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A CLEARING AND DRYING TREND FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PUT CONSIDERABLE STRESS ON THIS LINGERING DEFORMATION AXIS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND BY EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON SHOULD NOT LEAVE ANY DOUBT ABOUT CONTROL FOR OUR AREA. NORTHEAST WINDS ALSO WILL NOT BE DONE UNTIL LATER TODAY...WITH SPEEDS CLOSE TO 20 MPH AT TIMES. STILL FAIRLY RAW THEREFORE FOR THE END OF APRIL. PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY RETAINED THOUGH MAY BE OPTIMISTIC IF CLEARING IS DELAYED IN THE EAST IN PARTICULAR. TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COOL WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF. MID 30S EXPECTED NORTHWEST ZONES WITH UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE ON THE CAPROCK. HEATING SEASON NOT QUITE OVER WITH. BUT WHAT A PLEASANT REBOUND COMING OUR WAY AFTER TODAY... RMCQUEEN .LONG TERM... NOT MUCH WILL OCCUR IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT AFTER TODAY UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE WAKE OF TODAYS UPPER LEVEL LOW WE WILL BE LEFT WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL IN TURN LEAD TO WARMING TEMPERATURES. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY IN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW. HOWEVER...THIS SHORT WAVE WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE IS A POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN SCENARIO FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS SHOWN IN THE MODELS TO STALL OUT OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING ANOTHER SOUTHWEST US TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS TROUGH APPROACHES...SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN BACK INTO THE AREA. THIS TROUGH MAY THEN TAKE A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT DEEPENS TO THE WEST OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THIS IS STILL AROUND TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK...THIS WOULD PROVIDE THE AREA WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 61 36 72 43 / 10 0 0 0 TULIA 62 38 72 44 / 20 0 0 0 PLAINVIEW 61 39 72 45 / 20 0 0 0 LEVELLAND 62 39 73 46 / 10 0 0 0 LUBBOCK 62 40 74 47 / 20 0 0 0 DENVER CITY 61 40 73 46 / 10 0 0 0 BROWNFIELD 62 41 74 46 / 10 0 0 0 CHILDRESS 66 44 75 49 / 20 0 0 0 SPUR 62 43 73 49 / 20 0 0 0 ASPERMONT 62 43 74 49 / 30 10 0 0 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 05/01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1238 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 .AVIATION... CURRENTLY ALL TAF SITES ARE VFR AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BY 09Z AT AUS AND 12Z ELSEWHERE MVFR STRATUS WILL MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THE DECK WILL BE PERSISTENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...RISING TO VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS CURRENTLY. WINDS ARE ALREADY OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN SPEED OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE TOMORROW DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS WE GET INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/ UPDATE... ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS ARE PUSHING TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF LLANO AND BURNET COUNTIES TONIGHT. STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE PEA TO DIME SIZED HAIL. OTHERWISE...A COOL NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/ AVIATION... /00Z TAF UPDATE/ WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ABOUT 80 MILES EAST OF I-35 SHOULD DEFLECT ANY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION FOR THIS EVENING...AND ONLY A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL TX TONIGHT. THIS IS REFLECTED WELL IN RECENT HRRR RUNS...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES ON TAF SITES. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH THE AREA WITH A GRADUAL NORTHERLY WIND INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH NOT A SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT OR DRAMATIC WIND INCREASE. UNDER THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER N TX RESIDES LOWER LEVEL SATURATION THROUGH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT RAINS...AND THIS LOWER CATEGORY SHOULD DRAG MVFR CIGS INTO AUSTIN SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO SAT/SSF BY DAYBREAK. MEANWHILE...DRT SHOULD SEE BETTER DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MIXING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND HAVE VFR CIGS DEVELOP IF THEY FORM AT ALL. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)... LOOKING AT THE 27/19Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES...LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 70S AND 80S WHILE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU TO NEAR 70 NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS. ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LOW IS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE RED RIVER OVERNIGHT. SOME WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND WILL RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS DRY AND COOL AIR SPREADS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS A TRAILING TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WE/LL KEEP ANY RAIN CHANCES LOW (20%) AND CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF A FREDERICKSBURG TO GIDDINGS LINE ON TUESDAY. WE/LL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED IF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TRIED TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. GIVEN THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER...ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 40S AND 50S WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE COOLEST SPOTS WILL BE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN I-35 CORRIDOR. WE DO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION FROM NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE/LL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE COASTAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 69 52 75 53 79 / 10 - 0 0 0 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 68 46 74 49 78 / 10 - 0 0 0 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 71 50 75 52 79 / - - 0 0 0 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 64 47 74 52 77 / 20 - 0 0 0 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 72 52 78 54 84 / - - 0 0 0 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 65 48 74 51 77 / 20 - 0 0 0 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 49 75 52 80 / - - 0 0 0 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 69 49 74 52 78 / - - 0 0 0 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 70 49 74 52 77 / 10 - 0 0 0 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 72 51 75 53 79 / - - 0 0 0 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 73 52 75 54 80 / - - 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
251 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015 FOG HAS PRETTY MUCH HELD OFF OVER THE CWA AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING AND DENSE FOG FORMATION LOOKING LESS LIKELY OR WIDESPREAD. HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL THE DENSE FOG ADVY GIVEN THESE TRENDS THOUGH PATCHY AREAS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. BEYOND THAT DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE CWA TODAY THROUGH WEDS AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT GRADUALLY THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENT FLOW OCCURS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDS NIGHT. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A COOL FRONT ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES OF COOLING. UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCTD SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTRMS TO FORM IN THE AFTERNOON OVER SE WY. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015 COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY EVENING OUT WEST. FAIRLY QUICK MOVING FRONT THOUGH WITH NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED...SO SNOW SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM. SHOWERS SPREAD EAST ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THIS FRONT. GFS FURTHER SOUTH WITH ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWER AND MORE WIDESPREAD OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING. OPTED FOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND INCREASED POPS OVER GUIDANCE. ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WITH PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1111 PM MDT MON APR 27 2015 A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST TONIGHT WITH RESPECT TO FOG/LOW CEILING POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND WESTERN NE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN COLORADO IS RESULTING IN LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...WHILE THE HRRR AND SEVERAL OTHER FORECAST TOOLS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 09Z FOR KCYS AND SEVERAL PANHANDLE SITES. WOULD LIKE TO SEE A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO WINDS FOR THIS TO OCCUR...SO TEND TO THINK MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE MORE APPROPRIATE FOR THE 06Z TAFS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FOR ALL TERMINALS AFTER 15Z TUE...BECOMING VFR BY AFTERNOON. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015 CONCERNS TO REMAIN LOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NON-CRITICAL AND FUELS MOISTENED BY RECENT GOOD RAINS/SNOWS. MAINLY DRY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS THEN CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN THURSDAY ONWARD. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RE LONG TERM...GCC AVIATION...GCC FIRE WEATHER...RE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
859 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 859 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015 PATCHY FOG THAT DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING IN WAKE OF PARTIAL CLEARING HAS PRETTY MUCH BURNED OFF WITH DAYTIME HEATING. 12Z DENVER SHOWED SHALLOW INSTABILITY IN THE MOIST LAYER UNDER A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION NEAR 650 MB. AS A RESULT...THE DAYTIME HEATING HAS LED TO A FAST DEVELOPMENT OF SHALLOW CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES MOST OF THE DAY ALTHOUGH CONTINUED MIXING SHOULD EVENTUALLY BRING MORE SUNSHINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH JUST SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ) ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015 EARLY IN THE SHIFT BELIEVED FOG WOULD FORM NOT TOO LONG AFTER MIDNIGHT AND BECOME WIDESPREAD ON THE PLAINS BY 09Z BASED ON THE 00Z NAM AND WRF...AND 06Z RAP AND HRRR SFC AND BNDRY LAYER RH FIELDS. SAME MODELS ALSO INDICATED A SURGE OF NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AROUND A SFC HIGH SLIPPING SEWRD OUT OF WY DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. STILL NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG YET...ALTHOUGH SFC WINDS HAVE TURNED NELY IN AREAS EAST OF THE I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. SO WILL HOLD ONTO THE FOG AND LOW CLOUD FORECAST FOR THE PLAINS UNTIL AROUND 15Z THIS MORNING. SHOULD SEE LOWEST VISIBILITIES IN LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE FROM AROUND GREELEY TO STERLING. WILL ALSO KEEP PATCHY FOG IN THE MTN VALLEYS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH PARK WITH ITS FRESH BLANKET OF SNOW...THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOULD SEE THE LAST OF THE FOG AND LOW CLOUD BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING AS DRIER AIR FILTERS DOWN FROM WYOMING ON LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. COULD SEE A BAND OF THICK CIRRUS SWINGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING...MARKING THE START TO WARMING ALOFT. UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IS FORECAST WITH SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD OVER COLORADO NEXT 24 HOURS. AIRMASS ACCOMPANYING THIS RIDGE IS WARMER AND MUCH DRIER. ALTHOUGH LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING MAY BUBBLE UP INTO A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE MTNS AND SOUTH PARK AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD THEN SEE SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT. HIGHS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL HOOVER AROUND THE SEASONAL NORMS. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS COLORADO ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED WARMING AND DRY AIRMASS. 700MB TEMPERATURES NEARING +6C WILL RESULT IN READINGS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF COLORADO ON THURSDAY AS A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND SHALLOW UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. BEHIND THE THURSDAY TROF...THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE OF A ZONAL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STORMS MAY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS BY LATE SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE. HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN OVER MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND OR A BIT HIGHER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 859 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015 FOG THREAT HAS ENDED THIS MORNING BUT SHALLOW CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUSCLOUDS DEVELOPING WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THESE MAY GO BROKEN WITH CEILINGS IN THE 2000-2500 FOOT LAYER THROUGH ABOUT 18Z BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING AND SCATTERING OUT AGAIN. ILS LANDING CONDITIONS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VISUAL LANDINGS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT AND NORMAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS 10 KNOTS OR LESS. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH SHORT TERM...BAKER LONG TERM...ENTREKIN AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
422 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ) ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015 EARLY IN THE SHIFT BELIEVED FOG WOULD FORM NOT TOO LONG AFTER MIDNIGHT AND BECOME WIDESPREAD ON THE PLAINS BY 09Z BASED ON THE 00Z NAM AND WRF...AND 06Z RAP AND HRRR SFC AND BNDRY LAYER RH FIELDS. SAME MODELS ALSO INDICATED A SURGE OF NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AROUND A SFC HIGH SLIPPING SEWRD OUT OF WY DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. STILL NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG YET...ALTHOUGH SFC WINDS HAVE TURNED NELY IN AREAS EAST OF THE I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. SO WILL HOLD ONTO THE FOG AND LOW CLOUD FORECAST FOR THE PLAINS UNTIL AROUND 15Z THIS MORNING. SHOULD SEE LOWEST VISIBILITIES IN LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE FROM AROUND GREELEY TO STERLING. WILL ALSO KEEP PATCHY FOG IN THE MTN VALLEYS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH PARK WITH ITS FRESH BLANKET OF SNOW...THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOULD SEE THE LAST OF THE FOG AND LOW CLOUD BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING AS DRIER AIR FILTERS DOWN FROM WYOMING ON LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. COULD SEE A BAND OF THICK CIRRUS SWINGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING...MARKING THE START TO WARMING ALOFT. UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IS FORECAST WITH SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD OVER COLORADO NEXT 24 HOURS. AIRMASS ACCOMPANYING THIS RIDGE IS WARMER AND MUCH DRIER. ALTHOUGH LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING MAY BUBBLE UP INTO A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE MTNS AND SOUTH PARK AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD THEN SEE SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT. HIGHS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL HOOVER AROUND THE SEASONAL NORMS. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS COLORADO ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED WARMING AND DRY AIRMASS. 700MB TEMPERATURES NEARING +6C WILL RESULT IN READINGS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF COLORADO ON THURSDAY AS A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND SHALLOW UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. BEHIND THE THURSDAY TROF...THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE OF A ZONAL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STORMS MAY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS BY LATE SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE. HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN OVER MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND OR A BIT HIGHER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015 FOG IS STILL EXPECTED TO FORM AT AND AROUND KDEN THIS HOUR...AND AT KBJC AND KAPA THE FOLLOWING HOUR. PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL COOLING AND AS A CONSEQUENCE CAUSE FOG TO FORM IN THE DENVER METRO AREA. PREVAILING VSBYS WILL RANGE FROM 3-5 MILES WITH LOCAL VSBYS AS LOW AS 1/2 TO 3/4 MILE BETWEEN 11Z-14Z THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST AS LONG AT KAPA AND KBJC WITH DRIER AIR MOVING DOWN OFF THE FOOTHILLS AFTER SUNRISE. COULD SEE CEILINGS LOWERING TO 900 TO 1600 FT AGL OVERALL...AND AS LOW AS 500 FT AGL AT KDEN IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. LATER THIS MORNING...SAY AROUND 15Z...SHOULD SEE QUICK IMPROVEMENT AS DRIER AND WARMER AIR SPREADS DOWN FROM WYOMING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTH- NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN LIGHT SOUTHERLY IN DIRECTION OVERNIGHT. .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BAKER LONG TERM...ENTREKIN AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
931 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A STORM SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF COAST REGION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...GRADUALLY SETTLING OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY WEAK PUSH OF ISENTROPIC ASSENT IS SKIRTING THE ALTAMAHA RIVER THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY LOOKS QUITE LIGHT AND THERE HAS BEEN NO EVIDENCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN REACHING THE GROUND. RAP AND 12Z OBSERVED RAOBS SHOW VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE...WHICH WILL LIKELY HOLD FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGH RESOLUTION DATA ARE NOT OVERLY FAVORABLE FOR RAIN TODAY...SO POPS WILL BE CUT BACK...LIMITING 20-30 PERCENT POPS TO COUNTIES BORDERING THE ALTAMAHA RIVER WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT MORE PLENTIFUL. EVEN THIS MAY PROVE TOO AGGRESSIVE PER LATEST H3R AND RAP MODEL OUTPUT. PINNING DOWN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY AS THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT HIGH CLOUDS MAY THIN BY EARLY- MID AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. WILL NUDGE HIGH UP 1 DEGREE OR SO FOR MOST LOCATIONS TO TREND. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... TONIGHT...RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS DEEP MOISTURE COMBINES WITH UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND NEARBY JET. THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT SHOULD BE OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA BY DAYBREAK...LIKELY NOT GETTING MUCH MORE NORTH THAN THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. THIS WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THUS THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS PRETTY LOW...MAINLY ELEVATED IN NATURE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND ENHANCED HELICITY NEAR THE WARM FRONT SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY NOT BE TOO FAR AWAY SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT. LOWS SHOULD GET INTO THE 50S MOST LOCALES AWAY FROM THE COAST ALTHOUGH TEMPS COULD RISE NEAR THE GA COAST LATE AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME ABSORBED BY A MUCH STRONGER CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM JET WILL MAINTAIN A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW. MODELS ARE NOW COMING INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...AS THE NAM12 AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION BY KEEPING THE LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. MODELS GENERALLY TRACK THE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA OR FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN MOVE IT JUST OFFSHORE OF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW THEN BEGINS PULLING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY MORNING...SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE...ALONG WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT...UPPER DIVERGENCE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING/WEAKENING UPPER LOW. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRANSITIONS TO A POSITION JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...THE GREATEST SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BEGIN LIFTING OUT WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE MODEL CONSENSUS OF KEEPING THE AREA SOLIDLY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE LOW...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR NEARLY ALL AREAS. THE EXCEPTION IS MCINTOSH COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED ON WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY UNEXPECTED ENCROACHMENT OF THE WARM SECTOR OR EVEN SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS GREATLY REDUCED AT THIS TIME AS WELL. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE NORTHEAST FLOW COMBINED WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN A VERY COOL DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TOWARD THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS AT NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AN UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL DROP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A FEW INSTABILITY SHOWERS COULD OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP CLOSED LOW...AND THE FORECAST INDICATES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...MAINLY NORTH OF I-16. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S MOST AREAS. LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. FRIDAY...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN RAIN- FREE CONDITIONS...BUT COOL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...LEADING TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN TRANSITION TO OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WITH A RETURN FLOW BRINGING IN SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND A MORE PRONOUNCED SEA BREEZE EARLY NEXT WEEK...ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION CERTAINLY COULD NOT BE RULED OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE ON SATURDAY...RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY...THEN CLIMB TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... KCHS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING...THEN CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT AS SHOWERS DEVELOP AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT MVFR...OR POSSIBLY LOWER...CEILINGS AFTER 05Z ALONG WITH LIGHT SHOWERS. KSAV...SHOWERS WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION. HAVE ADDED VICINITY SHOWERS TO THE TAF AFTER 16Z...ALONG WITH GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH...CAUSING SHOWERS TO OVERSPREAD THE TERMINAL AND CEILINGS TO LOWER TO MVFR OR LOWER LEVELS. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AND SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. && .MARINE... TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE NORTH OF THE AREA WHILE A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST SHIFTS TOWARD SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ENHANCED WINDS/SEAS...CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS. LOW CONFIDENCE AND THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE EVENT PRECLUDES ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME BUT CAN/T RULE THEM OUT EVENTUALLY DEPENDING ON WHERE THE BEST GRADIENT SETS UP...WHICH SEEMS MOST LIKELY ALONG THE LOWER SC AND NORTHERN GA NEARSHORE WATERS. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES JUST EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY...THEN BEGINS TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL WATERS WEDNESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE LOW. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD THEN SLOWLY IMPROVE ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS FARTHER NORTH/NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA...BEFORE IMPROVING FURTHER AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIP CURRENTS...SEEING SOME 8-9 SECOND SWELL AT BOTH BUOYS 41004 AND 41008. THIS WAS NOT RESOLVED WELL BY THE LATEST WW4 OUTPUT. INPUTING THIS INFORMATION COMBINED WITH BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS YIELDS A HIGH-END LOW RISK TO LOW-END MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE GEORGIA BEACHES...INCLUDING TYBEE ISLAND. WILL MAINTAIN A LOW RISK FOR NOW...BUT MAY OPT FOR A MODERATE RISK LATER SHOULD WINDS INCREASE OR A BIT MORE SWELL MATERIALIZES. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1043 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1043 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 SKIES ARE CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK SO NO UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY) ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 ANOTHER CHILLY START TO THE DAY IS ON TAP...WITH MID 30S AND PATCHY FROST TO START THE DAY NORTH OF I-74. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS ILLINOIS FROM NE TO SW WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR. THE HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE 850-925MB LAYER ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE NAM AND GFS. FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS FORMATION WILL BE MORE CONCENTRATED THERE... BUT SUNSHINE SHOULD STILL BE THE RULE FOR THE DAY IN MOST AREAS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID 60S NEAR INDIANA AND THE UPPER 60S WEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING HEIGHTS WILL PEAK BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH OUR HIGHER WIND GUSTS FOR THE DAY. A FEW GUSTS MAY REACH 16-17 MPH... BUT OVERALL WINDS SHOULD BE LESS GUSTY THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. .LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 INITIAL CONCERN FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS WITH RAIN POTENTIAL MID WEEK. UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS NORTHEAST TO HUDSON BAY PROGGED BY ALL MODELS TO CARVE OUT A SIZABLE CLOUDS LOW OVER ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY...DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MIDWEST BY THURSDAY MORNING. GFS IS A BIT FURTHER EAST WITH THIS PROJECTION...WITH GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORING A PATH ALONG THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA BORDER. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COLD CORE WITH THE UPPER LOW (500 MB TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW -20C) INTRODUCES SOME STEEP LAPSE RATES. ALSO MENTIONED SOME ISOLATED THUNDER AS WELL. HAVE LINGERED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POP`S ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE LOW SETTLING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...HAVE ALSO MENTIONED SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF I-57 CLOSER TO THE LOW TRACK. FURTHER OUT IN TIME...UPPER FLOW SHIFTS MORE ZONAL TO START THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING A TROUGH MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER...WITH THE ECMWF DEVELOPING MORE OF A BROADENING EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE GFS REMAINS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND CLOSER TO THE BORDER. STILL NOT VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RAIN POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY...AND HAVE PULLED BACK SOME ON THE POP`S. SATURDAY NIGHT...HAVE FOLLOWED MORE OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF A POTENTIAL MCS SYSTEM ROLLING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE BROADENING TROUGH APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE GENERAL IDEA FOR TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITH WARMING CONDITIONS... ALTHOUGH A BRIEF COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES DIP CLOSER TO 0C AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES. HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTHEAST OF ILLINOIS WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER AT A MINIMUM. HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT OVER INDIANA COULD PUSH A FEW MORE CLOUDS OVER CMI AND DEC, WHILE THE OTHER TERMINAL SITES REMAIN RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE LESS GUSTY TODAY, WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 15KT GENERALLY BETWEEN 16Z-19Z. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z, AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DECOUPLE FROM THE MID- LEVEL WINDS. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AUTEN SHORT TERM...SHIMON LONG TERM...GEELHART AVIATION...SHIMON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
643 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY) ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 ANOTHER CHILLY START TO THE DAY IS ON TAP...WITH MID 30S AND PATCHY FROST TO START THE DAY NORTH OF I-74. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS ILLINOIS FROM NE TO SW WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR. THE HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE 850-925MB LAYER ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE NAM AND GFS. FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS FORMATION WILL BE MORE CONCENTRATED THERE... BUT SUNSHINE SHOULD STILL BE THE RULE FOR THE DAY IN MOST AREAS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID 60S NEAR INDIANA AND THE UPPER 60S WEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING HEIGHTS WILL PEAK BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH OUR HIGHER WIND GUSTS FOR THE DAY. A FEW GUSTS MAY REACH 16-17 MPH... BUT OVERALL WINDS SHOULD BE LESS GUSTY THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. .LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 INITIAL CONCERN FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS WITH RAIN POTENTIAL MID WEEK. UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS NORTHEAST TO HUDSON BAY PROGGED BY ALL MODELS TO CARVE OUT A SIZABLE CLOUDS LOW OVER ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY...DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MIDWEST BY THURSDAY MORNING. GFS IS A BIT FURTHER EAST WITH THIS PROJECTION...WITH GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORING A PATH ALONG THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA BORDER. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COLD CORE WITH THE UPPER LOW (500 MB TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW -20C) INTRODUCES SOME STEEP LAPSE RATES. ALSO MENTIONED SOME ISOLATED THUNDER AS WELL. HAVE LINGERED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POP`S ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE LOW SETTLING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...HAVE ALSO MENTIONED SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF I-57 CLOSER TO THE LOW TRACK. FURTHER OUT IN TIME...UPPER FLOW SHIFTS MORE ZONAL TO START THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING A TROUGH MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER...WITH THE ECMWF DEVELOPING MORE OF A BROADENING EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE GFS REMAINS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND CLOSER TO THE BORDER. STILL NOT VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RAIN POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY...AND HAVE PULLED BACK SOME ON THE POP`S. SATURDAY NIGHT...HAVE FOLLOWED MORE OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF A POTENTIAL MCS SYSTEM ROLLING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE BROADENING TROUGH APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE GENERAL IDEA FOR TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITH WARMING CONDITIONS... ALTHOUGH A BRIEF COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES DIP CLOSER TO 0C AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES. HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTHEAST OF ILLINOIS WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER AT A MINIMUM. HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT OVER INDIANA COULD PUSH A FEW MORE CLOUDS OVER CMI AND DEC, WHILE THE OTHER TERMINAL SITES REMAIN RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE LESS GUSTY TODAY, WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 15KT GENERALLY BETWEEN 16Z-19Z. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z, AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DECOUPLE FROM THE MID- LEVEL WINDS. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SHIMON LONG TERM...GEELHART AVIATION...SHIMON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1101 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. A BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1100 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE. TWEAKED POPS AND WEATHER TO MATCH THE LATEST HI-RES MODEL RUNS, WHICH BRING A SWATH OF SHOWERS INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION THIS MORNING AND THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. WV SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED ANOTHER SPOKE OF ENERGY THAT WILL AID THESE SHOWERS TO MOVE SSW TODAY FROM THE MARITIMES. THE LATEST RUN OF THE 3KM HRRR AND THE NAM MATCHING UP WELL W/THE LATEST CONDITIONS AS THE GFS. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO INCREASE THE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS AND EXPAND THE AREAL COVERAGE AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WERE DOWN IN THE MID 30S IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS W/DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 30S. PRECIP COULD FALL AS A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN OR EVEN SOME SLEET THIS MORNING BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM LATER THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 40S AND 50S BY THE AFTERNOON WILL PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN. SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE LLVLS ESPECIALLY IN THE 0-3KM LAYER W/0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS. WINDS WERE INCREASED TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SETUP. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF INTO EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LLVL CONVERGENCE AND MID LEVEL FORCING WEAKEN. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP BACK INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT W/RAIN FOR THE MOST PART. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SAY ABOVE 1000 FT AS SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES W/EASTERN AREAS NEAR THE MAINE-NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER SEEING UP TO 0.25 INCHES. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WE COULD STILL SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND INTO WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT THE UPPER LOW TO BE REPLACED BY RIDGING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGHS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WE COULD BE LOOKING AT HIGHS REACHING CLOSE TO 70 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR THIS MORNING W/PERIODS OF VFR. MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO RETURN FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WHILE KBGR AND KBHB ARE EXPECTED TO SEE CONDITIONS GO TO VFR. ALL TERMINALS TO EXPERIENCE VFR INTO EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN CONDITIONS COULD DROP BACK TO MVFR BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOWER CIGS MOVING IN FROM NEW BRUNSWICK. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: 11 AM UPDATE...HAVE ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS WINDS AND HAVES ARE AT MARGINAL LEVELS AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH THE DAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WINDS/SEAS RIGHT SCA LEVELS AND WINDS TO PICK UP AFTER 12Z(8AM). THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL STAY AS IS FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED A FEW MORE HRS W/THAT SECOND SURGE OF WIND MENTIONED ABOVE. SOME OF THE SOUNDING DATA ESPECIALLY THE NAM SHOW A BRIEF SURGE OF WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY AT THE JONESPORT BUOY(44027). THIS SURGE LOOKS LIKE IT DROPS OFF AFTER 00Z(8PM) AS WINDS DROP OFF TO 15-20 KTS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DOWN TO 2-4 FT. SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS MAY THEN INCREASE THE SMALL CRAFT LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND AS AN OCEAN STORM TRACKS TO OUR EAST. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT SHORT TERM...DUDA LONG TERM...DUDA AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
702 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. A BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 650 AM UPDATE...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS HAD PRES GRADIENT WEAKENING AS WINDS HAVE SETTLED BACK ATTM. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED ENHANCED CLOUDS PUSHING WESTWARD THIS MORNING. WIND WILL COME BACK UP AS THIS FEATURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. ADJUSTED THE SKY AND POPS TO SHOW SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AREAS. TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED TO MATCH THE LATEST CONDITIONS. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION THIS MORNING AND THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. WV SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED ANOTHER SPOKE OF ENERGY THAT WILL AID THESE SHOWERS TO MOVE SSW TODAY FROM THE MARITIMES. THE LATEST RUN OF THE 3KM HRRR AND THE NAM MATCHING UP WELL W/THE LATEST CONDITIONS AS THE GFS. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO INCREASE THE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS AND EXPAND THE AREAL COVERAGE AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WERE DOWN IN THE MID 30S IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS W/DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 30S. PRECIP COULD FALL AS A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN OR EVEN SOME SLEET THIS MORNING BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM LATER THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 40S AND 50S BY THE AFTERNOON WILL PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN. SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE LLVLS ESPECIALLY IN THE 0-3KM LAYER W/0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS. WINDS WERE INCREASED TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SETUP. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF INTO EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LLVL CONVERGENCE AND MID LEVEL FORCING WEAKEN. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP BACK INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT W/RAIN FOR THE MOST PART. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SAY ABOVE 1000 FT AS SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES W/EASTERN AREAS NEAR THE MAINE-NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER SEEING UP TO 0.25 INCHES. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WE COULD STILL SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND INTO WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT THE UPPER LOW TO BE REPLACED BY RIDGING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGHS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WE COULD BE LOOKING AT HIGHS REACHING CLOSE TO 70 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR THIS MORNING W/PERIODS OF VFR. MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO RETURN FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WHILE KBGR AND KBHB ARE EXPECTED TO SEE CONDITIONS GO TO VFR. ALL TERMINALS TO EXPERIENCE VFR INTO EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN CONDITIONS COULD DROP BACK TO MVFR BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOWER CIGS MOVING IN FROM NEW BRUNSWICK. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS RIGHT SCA LEVELS AND WINDS TO PICK UP AFTER 12Z(8AM). THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL STAY AS IS FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED A FEW MORE HRS W/THAT SECOND SURGE OF WIND MENTIONED ABOVE. SOME OF THE SOUNDING DATA ESPECIALLY THE NAM SHOW A BRIEF SURGE OF WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY AT THE JONESPORT BUOY(44027). THIS SURGE LOOKS LIKE IT DROPS OFF AFTER 00Z(8PM) AS WINDS DROP OFF TO 15-20 KTS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DOWN TO 2-4 FT. SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS MAY THEN INCREASE THE SMALL CRAFT LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND AS AN OCEAN STORM TRACKS TO OUR EAST. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT SHORT TERM...DUDA LONG TERM...DUDA AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
706 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 453 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM IA TO JAMES BAY...SANDWICHED BTWN A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND CONTINUED BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ENCOMPASSING SE CANADA AND THE NE CONUS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS SUPPORTING SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE UPPER LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. TO THE W...APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF IS ACCOMAPANIED BY A BAND OF SHRA IN NW MN. APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF WILL REACH WRN UPPER MI LATE AFTN/EVENING. WITH DEEP LAYER FORCING WEAKENING PER QVECTORS...A LACK OF MOISTURE INFLOW...AND A VERY DRY ANTECEDANT AIR MASS PER 00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS...MOST OF THE MODELS APPEAR ON TRACK SHOWING APPROACHING PCPN DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. SO...PLAN TO MAINTAIN A DRY FCST. SECOND SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING INTO NRN MANITOBA WILL MOVE INTO NRN ONTARIO AND THEN BEGIN DIGGING MORE SHARPLY TO THE S TONIGHT WITH MODELS SUGGESTING A MID LEVEL LOW BEGINNING TO CLOSE OFF JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AN EXPANSION OF PCPN N AND E OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...CLOSER TO GREATEST HEIGHT FALLS. PCPN MAY TRY TO DEVELOP S INTO UPPER MI...BUT LACK OF DEEP FORCING HERE SUGGESTS DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE THRU THE NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...WEAK PRES GRADIENT TODAY WILL ALLOW LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE BOARD...LEADING TO COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG THE LAKES. IT WILL BE COOLEST IN THE ERN FCST AREA ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE DUE TO ONSHORE WINDS THRU THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S THERE. IN THE INTERIOR...FAVORED THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THAT WARMER GUIDANCE HAS VERIFIED BETTER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. EXPECT HIGHEST TEMPS IN THE INTERIOR W WHERE MAX READINGS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. DEEP MIXING IN THE INTERIOR WILL TAP DRIER AIR ALOFT...RESULTING IN AFTN DWPTS IN THE MID 20S...PERHAPS LOWER. THIS WILL SEND RH DOWN TO AROUND 20PCT IN THE INTERIOR W. FROM A FIRE WX STANDOINT...FORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN HARD TO COME BY IN THE LONG TERM AS THE AREA WILL BE DOMINATED BY A SFC RIDGE AT LEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. AN UPPER WAVE WILL TRANSIT THE CENTRAL OR ERN CWA WED INTO WED NIGHT...BUT WILL BE LACKING MOISTURE SUFFICIENT FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN E AND POSSIBLY SOME SPRINKLES OVER THE NCENTRAL (AIDED BY UPSLOPE FORCING) WED INTO WED NIGHT. THE NAM SHOWS THE MOST QPF BUT IT IS ALSO STRONGEST WITH THE WAVE AND HAS BEEN SUBSTANTIALLY OVERDOING LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE LATELY. N WINDS OF 10-15MPH GUSTING TO 20MPH WILL KEEP LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE LOCATIONS COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE 40S. INLAND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S. SFC RIDGING TAKES MOVES SQUARELY BACK OVER THE CWA ON THU BEFORE MOVING OUT ON FRI EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THU WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPS TO WED AS N-NE FLOW CONTINUES...BUT SW-W FLOW AND AN OVERALL MUCH WARMER AIRMASS ON FRI WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S E AND THE 60S W. THANKFULLY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ON FRI...WHICH WILL HELP OFFSET FIRE RISK AS RH VALUES DROP INTO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE FAR W LATE FRI AS DYING SHORTWAVE MOVES TOWARD THE CWA WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE CWA SAT THROUGH MON...BUT PRECIP POTENTIAL ON SAT LOOKS LOW. FOR SUN AND MON...BETTER MOISTURE ALONG WITH STRONGER SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND BETTER WAA FORCING WILL MAKE FOR BETTER PRECIP CHANCES. EXACT AMOUNTS/TIMING IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS HARD TO PIN DOWN AT THAT TIME RANGE. DOES LOOK LIKE TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE 70S IN SOME SPOTS SAT INTO MON...BUT THAT IS ALSO DEPENDENT ON SHORTWAVE TRACK/PRECIP/CLOUD COVER. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 706 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 ALTHOUGH A WEAK LOW PRES TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING...DRY AIR WILL PERSIST IN THE LOWER LEVELS... ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 453 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE LIGHT...UNDER 15KT...THRU THIS EVENING AS SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA GIVES WAY TO A VERY WEAK LOW PRES TROF THAT WILL PASS LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. IN ITS WAKE... ANOTHER HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER HUDSON BAY AND EXTEND A RIDGE S INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WED/THU. AS THE HIGH BEGINS RIDGING S INTO THE UPPER LAKES LATE TONIGHT/WED...NNW WINDS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY GUST TO AROUND 20KT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER THE W. WITH WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER LAKES THU THRU SAT...WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT...MOSTLY UNDER 15KT. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...TITUS AVIATION...ROLFSON MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
945 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 945 AM TUESDAY...VERY FEW CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. AN EXPANSIVE FAN OF CIRRUS CLOUDS EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA...GEORGIA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ARE THE RESULT OF BLOWOFF FROM AN MCS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THESE TRANSLUCENT TO NEARLY OPAQUE CLOUDS ARE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT OVER 100 KNOTS AND SHOULD LARGELY BE OFFSHORE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE TRANSITORY HOWEVER AS A NEW BATCH OF CLOUDS BETWEEN 15000-25000 FEET WILL ARRIVE DURING THE EVENING AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO OUR HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS TODAY...STILL ANTICIPATED TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR MOST AREAS. THAT`S NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL! DISCUSSION FROM 600 AM FOLLOWS... HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WERE WARMING AND THINNING THIS MORNING. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL SKIRT BY TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND CENTRAL GULF COASTAL STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY STREAKING OUT AHEAD OF THE WAVE AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE INTO THIS EVE WILL SLOWLY BE DISLODGED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WHICH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT AS IT TURNS NORTHEAST. COOL NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS MORNING WILL VEER TO A MORE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB FROM LESS THAN A HALF INCH TODAY TO AROUND 1 INCH LATE TONIGHT. CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS WILL BRING CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS EARLY ON...BUT THESE CLOUDS SHOULD TEND TO THIN WITH THE BULK OF THE THICK CLOUD COVER GETTING SUPPRESSED TO OUR S LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THICK CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO SURGE BACK TO THE N THIS EVE WITH CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED THROUGHOUT OVERNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND THIS EVE. HOWEVER...AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS...LASTLY IN THE LOW LEVELS... EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO BEGIN TO BREAK OUT FROM SW TO NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE HIGHEST RISK FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL BEFORE DAYBREAK WED WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL RAMP POPS UP TO LIKELY ALONG AND SW OF A LINE FROM GEORGETOWN TO KINGSTREE TO TIMMONSVILLE WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT IN POPS TO THE NE OF THIS LINE...FALLING BELOW THRESHOLD AS YOU MOVE UP ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR AREA. DUE TO THE DRYNESS OF THE COLUMN INITIALLY...DO NOT EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL EXCEED A TENTH OF AN INCH EVEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOST ZONES PRIOR TO 12Z WED. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S...WELL BELOW NORMAL. NOT AS CHILLY AS RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH UPPER 50S AT THE BEACHES. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...A WET AND COOL MID WEEK PERIOD COMING UP. GULF COAST LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AFTER REACHING THE NORTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA WED AFTN. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY WED WITH LIGHT NE FLOW..BUT A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL ACT TO SHARPEN A SW FLOW AHEAD OF IT INTO THE CAROLINAS WHILE THE SFC LOW MOVES NE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT THE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN WITH ENHANCED N-NE COOL SFC FLOW WHILE WINDS ALOFT INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENHANCING WEDGE INLAND AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED INTO WED EVE. EXPECT RAIN TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA FROM SW TO NE WITH GREATEST QPF WED AFTN. THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH WED NIGHT AS SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE UP JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SHORTWAVE PUSHING THE LOW ON A FARTHER EASTWARD TRACK UP THE SOUTHEAST WATERS ON WED AND KEEP IT WEAKER OVERALL REMAINING SLOWER WITH DEEP CLOSED LOW MOVING DOWN FROM THE UPPER MID WEST ON THURS. BUT STILL COUNTING ON A GOOD DEAL OF PCP OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS WED AFTN WITH ENHANCEMENT FROM DECENT DYNAMICS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. LIFT WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT WED AS SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY AND A DEEPER NW FLOW SETS UP ON BACK END OF LOW. EXPECT DRYING THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE COLUMN WITH WINDS BACKING AROUND TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION. SKIES MAY BRIGHTEN WITH SOME DRYING THROUGH THE MID LEVELS ON THURS BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF PCP WILL COME AS POTENT MID TO UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATER ON THURS. EXPECT TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL ON WED...AND MAY NOT MAKE IT PAST 60 IN SPOTS IN CLOUDS AND RAIN. THURS WILL RETURN TOWARD 70S IN PLACES AS CLOUDS THIN OUT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...POTENT LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRI WITH A DEEP N-NW FLOW ON THE BACK END BRINGING IN PLENTY OF DRY AIR. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS OR PCP EARLY FRI WILL DIMINISH AS COLUMN DRIES OUT. PCP WATER VALUES WILL DROP TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND EXITING LOW. HEIGHTS AS LOW AS 545 FRI MORNING WILL BEGIN TO RISE WITH AIR MASS MODIFYING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT A GENERAL WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS REACHING BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL BRING TEMPS UP AROUND 80 BY SUN AND MON. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 12Z...A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL GIVE US SOME HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TODAY. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE...PERHAPS BEING REPLACED WITH A EASTERLY SEA BREEZE COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON. THICKENING CLOUDS TONIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. ANY PRECIP WILL PROBABLY START AFTER THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE TERMINALS EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN AND POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY MID MORNING. SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A UPPER LOW PASSES. VFR SATURDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 945 AM TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING AS LAST NIGHT`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
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
936 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY WAS STILL SOCKED IN WITH FOG SO EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THERE ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. AS SOON AS THAT WENT OUT THE OBS AT GFK STARTED GOING UP IN VISIBILITY. FIGURES. THE WEB CAMS AT DRAYTON AND PEMBINA ARE STILL SHOWING A LOT OF FOG...ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SLOW IMPROVEMENT OVER THE PAST HOUR. WILL HANG ONTO THE ADVISORY FOR ANOTHER HALF HOUR OR SO AND THEN CANCEL THE WHOLE THING AT ONCE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 NOW THAT IT IS DAYLIGHT THE WEB CAMS ARE MORE HELP. THEY INDICATE WIDESPREAD VERY LOW VSBY DUE TO DENSE FOG WITHIN THE VALLEY...WITH MORE PATCHY DENSE FOG TO THE WEST WITHIN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. AT ANY RATE...MOST AREAS ARE 1/4SM AND WILL CONTINUE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. THE HENDRUM-ADA WEBCAM IN SHOWING DENSE FOG...AND WILL EXTEND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO THIS AREA. THERE IS A ALSO DENSE FOG IN A SMALL AREA AROUND VALLEY CITY...BUT THIS AREA IS DETACHED FROM THE MAIN FOG AREA AND REMAINS ISOLATED. HRRR/RAP INDICATES THAT THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 9AM-10AM. UPDATE ISSUED AT 507 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 THE ZERO TO 1/4SM VSBY OBSERVATIONS ARE BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. LATEST RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE BECOMING CALM ACROSS THIS AREA (LOOKING AT 950MB-925MB WINDS)...WHICH IS LIKELY ALLOWING THE FOG TO BECOME MORE MATURE (DEVELOP MORE THAN JUST 5 FEET ABOVE THE SFC). WEB CAMS ARE BEGINNING TO INDICATE VSBY REDUCTIONS AS WELL. SINCE THE FOG SEEMS MORE WIDESPREAD NOW AND THICKER...ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA. WILL NEED TO WATCH AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...BUT THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TIME FOR FOG FORMATION ANYMORE. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE THE DENSE FOG THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA (LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SHOWERS). AUTOMATED SENSORS INDICATING 0SM-1/4SM VSBY...BUT DOT WEB CAMS INDICATE DECENT VISIBILITY. A FEW OB SITES NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER NOW FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 1/4SM AND AOA 3SM. A SHERIFF REPORT INDICATES THE FOG IS VERY SHALLOW (4-5 FEET ABOVE THE GROUND). CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE FOG BECOMES VERY DENSE RIGHT AFTER THE RAIN ENDS...BUT THIS DENSE FOG BECOMES PATCHY AFTER AN HOUR OR TWO. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS...THIS MAKES SOME SENSE WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS ABOVE THE SFC COMBINED WITH WINDS NEAR OR ABOVE 10 KNOTS JUST ABOVE THE SFC. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WEB CAMS AND OBSERVATIONS...BUT FOR NOW THINKING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOT NEEDED (WILL ISSUE NOWCASTS). THE BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS SHOWERS FROM FARGO TO BAUDETTE WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST/SOUTHEAST...EXITING THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 60S TODAY...AND INTO THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE MIN TEMPS TONIGHT CONSIDERING THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. WENT NEAR MODEL DEW POINT VALUES FOR MIN TEMPS WHICH IS 5F-10F BELOW MOST GUIDANCE. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THUR NIGHT. DRY WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY...WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ANTICIPATE A BAND OF SHOWERS THUR NIGHT. FRIDAY-MONDAY...A PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED...WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET GENERALLY MEANDERING NEAR THE US/CANADA BORDER. THE FLOW WILL BE RATHER ZONAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS CONTINUING INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AND SATURDAY LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS DO ALL INDICATE A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SAT OR SUN BRINGING MODESTLY COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION TO START NEXT WEEK. AS FAR AS PRECIP GOES...TIMING/PLACEMENT ISSUES BETWEEN THE MODELS LEAD TO LOW CONFIDENCE...WITH THE GEM/ECMWF TAKING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS S CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND...AND THE GFS DIGGING A WAVE TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THESE DIFFERENCES...IN ADDITION TO PLACEMENT OF OTHER EMBEDDED WAVES...WOULD IMPACT BOTH THE POSITION OF SFC FEATURES AND THE LOCATION OF BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT/FORCING. RIGHT NOW HAVE KEPT SOME LOW END POPS MAINLY SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 AFTER EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG AND/OR IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS...ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKY AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR FOG FORMATION WED MORNING...BUT THIS PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION ATTM. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ008-016- 027-030. MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ001-002- 004-007. && $$ UPDATE...JR SHORT TERM...TG LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
642 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 NOW THAT IT IS DAYLIGHT THE WEB CAMS ARE MORE HELP. THEY INDICATE WIDESPREAD VERY LOW VSBY DUE TO DENSE FOG WITHIN THE VALLEY...WITH MORE PATCHY DENSE FOG TO THE WEST WITHIN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. AT ANY RATE...MOST AREAS ARE 1/4SM AND WILL CONTINUE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. THE HENDRUM-ADA WEBCAM IN SHOWING DENSE FOG...AND WILL EXTEND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO THIS AREA. THERE IS A ALSO DENSE FOG IN A SMALL AREA AROUND VALLEY CITY...BUT THIS AREA IS DETACHED FROM THE MAIN FOG AREA AND REMAINS ISOLATED. HRRR/RAP INDICATES THAT THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 9AM-10AM. UPDATE ISSUED AT 507 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 THE ZERO TO 1/4SM VSBY OBSERVATIONS ARE BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. LATEST RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE BECOMING CALM ACROSS THIS AREA (LOOKING AT 950MB-925MB WINDS)...WHICH IS LIKELY ALLOWING THE FOG TO BECOME MORE MATURE (DEVELOP MORE THAN JUST 5 FEET ABOVE THE SFC). WEB CAMS ARE BEGINNING TO INDICATE VSBY REDUCTIONS AS WELL. SINCE THE FOG SEEMS MORE WIDESPREAD NOW AND THICKER...ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA. WILL NEED TO WATCH AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...BUT THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TIME FOR FOG FORMATION ANYMORE. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE THE DENSE FOG THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA (LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SHOWERS). AUTOMATED SENSORS INDICATING 0SM-1/4SM VSBY...BUT DOT WEB CAMS INDICATE DECENT VISIBILITY. A FEW OB SITES NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER NOW FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 1/4SM AND AOA 3SM. A SHERIFF REPORT INDICATES THE FOG IS VERY SHALLOW (4-5 FEET ABOVE THE GROUND). CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE FOG BECOMES VERY DENSE RIGHT AFTER THE RAIN ENDS...BUT THIS DENSE FOG BECOMES PATCHY AFTER AN HOUR OR TWO. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS...THIS MAKES SOME SENSE WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS ABOVE THE SFC COMBINED WITH WINDS NEAR OR ABOVE 10 KNOTS JUST ABOVE THE SFC. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WEB CAMS AND OBSERVATIONS...BUT FOR NOW THINKING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOT NEEDED (WILL ISSUE NOWCASTS). THE BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS SHOWERS FROM FARGO TO BAUDETTE WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST/SOUTHEAST...EXITING THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 60S TODAY...AND INTO THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE MIN TEMPS TONIGHT CONSIDERING THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. WENT NEAR MODEL DEW POINT VALUES FOR MIN TEMPS WHICH IS 5F-10F BELOW MOST GUIDANCE. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THUR NIGHT. DRY WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY...WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ANTICIPATE A BAND OF SHOWERS THUR NIGHT. FRIDAY-MONDAY...A PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED...WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET GENERALLY MEANDERING NEAR THE US/CANADA BORDER. THE FLOW WILL BE RATHER ZONAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS CONTINUING INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AND SATURDAY LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS DO ALL INDICATE A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SAT OR SUN BRINGING MODESTLY COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION TO START NEXT WEEK. AS FAR AS PRECIP GOES...TIMING/PLACEMENT ISSUES BETWEEN THE MODELS LEAD TO LOW CONFIDENCE...WITH THE GEM/ECMWF TAKING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS S CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND...AND THE GFS DIGGING A WAVE TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THESE DIFFERENCES...IN ADDITION TO PLACEMENT OF OTHER EMBEDDED WAVES...WOULD IMPACT BOTH THE POSITION OF SFC FEATURES AND THE LOCATION OF BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT/FORCING. RIGHT NOW HAVE KEPT SOME LOW END POPS MAINLY SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 AFTER EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG AND/OR IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS...ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKY AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR FOG FORMATION WED MORNING...BUT THIS PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION ATTM. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ006>008- 014>016-024-026-027-030-054. MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ001-002- 004-007. && $$ UPDATE...TG SHORT TERM...TG LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
507 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 507 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 THE ZERO TO 1/4SM VSBY OBSERVATIONS ARE BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. LATEST RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE BECOMING CALM ACROSS THIS AREA (LOOKING AT 950MB-925MB WINDS)...WHICH IS LIKELY ALLOWING THE FOG TO BECOME MORE MATURE (DEVELOP MORE THAN JUST 5 FEET ABOVE THE SFC). WEB CAMS ARE BEGINNING TO INDICATE VSBY REDUCTIONS AS WELL. SINCE THE FOG SEEMS MORE WIDESPREAD NOW AND THICKER...ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA. WILL NEED TO WATCH AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...BUT THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TIME FOR FOG FORMATION ANYMORE. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE THE DENSE FOG THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA (LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SHOWERS). AUTOMATED SENSORS INDICATING 0SM-1/4SM VSBY...BUT DOT WEB CAMS INDICATE DECENT VISIBILITY. A FEW OB SITES NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER NOW FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 1/4SM AND AOA 3SM. A SHERIFF REPORT INDICATES THE FOG IS VERY SHALLOW (4-5 FEET ABOVE THE GROUND). CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE FOG BECOMES VERY DENSE RIGHT AFTER THE RAIN ENDS...BUT THIS DENSE FOG BECOMES PATCHY AFTER AN HOUR OR TWO. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS...THIS MAKES SOME SENSE WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS ABOVE THE SFC COMBINED WITH WINDS NEAR OR ABOVE 10 KNOTS JUST ABOVE THE SFC. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WEB CAMS AND OBSERVATIONS...BUT FOR NOW THINKING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOT NEEDED (WILL ISSUE NOWCASTS). THE BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS SHOWERS FROM FARGO TO BAUDETTE WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST/SOUTHEAST...EXITING THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 60S TODAY...AND INTO THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE MIN TEMPS TONIGHT CONSIDERING THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. WENT NEAR MODEL DEW POINT VALUES FOR MIN TEMPS WHICH IS 5F-10F BELOW MOST GUIDANCE. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THUR NIGHT. DRY WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY...WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ANTICIPATE A BAND OF SHOWERS THUR NIGHT. FRIDAY-MONDAY...A PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED...WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET GENERALLY MEANDERING NEAR THE US/CANADA BORDER. THE FLOW WILL BE RATHER ZONAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS CONTINUING INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AND SATURDAY LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS DO ALL INDICATE A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SAT OR SUN BRINGING MODESTLY COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION TO START NEXT WEEK. AS FAR AS PRECIP GOES...TIMING/PLACEMENT ISSUES BETWEEN THE MODELS LEAD TO LOW CONFIDENCE...WITH THE GEM/ECMWF TAKING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS S CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND...AND THE GFS DIGGING A WAVE TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THESE DIFFERENCES...IN ADDITION TO PLACEMENT OF OTHER EMBEDDED WAVES...WOULD IMPACT BOTH THE POSITION OF SFC FEATURES AND THE LOCATION OF BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT/FORCING. RIGHT NOW HAVE KEPT SOME LOW END POPS MAINLY SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015 PCPN BAND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND BE OUT OF THE FA BY TUESDAY MORNING. MAIN ISSUE IS HOW FAST CLEARING OCCURS AND EXTENT OF FOG. MENTIONED FOG AT KDVL/KGFK/KTVF AND IT SHOULD BURN OFF TUE MORNING LEAVING LOTS OF SUN. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ006>008- 014>016-024-026-027-054. MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ001-004- 007. && $$ UPDATE...TG SHORT TERM...TG LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI AVIATION...GODON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
854 AM PDT TUE APR 28 2015 .DISCUSSION...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH AN EMPHASIS TOWARDS THE HRRR AND NAM SOLUTION. THE FRONT IS STILL OFFSHORE AND SO FAR NO RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED ALONG THE COAST. HAVE LOWERED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR INLAND LOCATIONS TODAY, BUT KEPT THEM HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST, COAST RANGE AND NORTHERN CASCADES. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MUCH RAIN, SO ADJUSTED QPF AMOUNTS LOWER AS WELL, BUT PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN UP THIS AFTERNOON AND WE`LL HAVE BREEZY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THE MODELS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY IN PARTS OF KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND LEFT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN FOR THIS EVENING, BUT WE`LL LOOK AT THIS IN MORE DETAIL TODAY AND DETERMINE IF WE`LL KEEP IT IN FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. -PETRUCELLI && .AVIATION...FOR THE 28/12Z TAF CYCLE. AT THE COAST...STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS WILL EXPAND WITH CIGS BECOMING IFR THIS MORNING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD TERRAIN OBSCURATION OF THE COASTAL RANGE TODAY. STRATUS WILL SPREAD INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN BRINGING CIGS TO MVFR AND IFR LATER THIS MORNING...WITH TERRAIN OBSCURATION OF THE COASTAL RANGE, CASCADES, AND UMPQUA MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SANDLER && .MARINE...UPDATED 815 AM PDT TUESDAY 28 APR 2015...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING INLAND BY MIDDAY. MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING SEAS TO LOW END ADVISORY LEVEL. SEAS WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE A THERMAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS INLAND WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. THIS PATTERN WILL CREATE STRONG NORTH WINDS AND THE ASSOCIATED STEEP WIND-DRIVEN SEAS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. -BPN/SANDLER && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM PDT TUE APR 28 2015/ DISCUSSION...THE 00Z GFS IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF THROUGH FRIDAY, AND WITH ITS 12Z MONDAY RUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUR WEATHER AT LEAST INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BY AND LARGE BE DRY AND VERY WARM WITH BREEZY/SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS. THE MOST NOTABLE EXCEPTION WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES EAST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN A COOLER DAY FOR THE WEST SIDE WHILE IT IS WARMER TODAY ON THE EAST SIDE. THE PROBABILITY OF MEASUREABLE SHOWERS WILL BE HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST AND INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY. ADDITIONALLY, THE 00Z NAM AND GFS INDICATE WEAK EARLY EVENING INSTABILITY ON THE EAST SIDE WITH A VERY SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER BASED AROUND 12K FT MSL. THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ONLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUD COVERAGE IN LAKE COUNTY. BUT, A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALTOGETHER. SO, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN ADDED. SHOWERS COULD BEGIN NEAR NORTH BEND BEFORE SUNRISE AND SHOWERS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE MORNING. A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND THE HEATING OF THE DAY WILL RESULT IN THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FOLLOW WITH ANOTHER COUPLE OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ON WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT THAT THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WARNER MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN LAKE AND EASTERN MODOC COUNTIES. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SIMPLY HAVE A COOLER DAY WITH MORNING CLOUDS THAT WILL DIMINISH LATER IN THE DAY. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE ON THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL BECOME MORE COMPLEX AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO RETROGRADE ON FRIDAY WHILE A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ANOTHER TROUGH OFFSHORE FROM CALIFORNIA MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE UPPER FLOW COULD PRODUCE WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA AND THERE IS A MINIMAL/AROUND 10% PROBABILITY OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM EXTENDING FARTHER NORTH INTO MODOC COUNTY. THE NORTHERN BRANCH MAY RESUME ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER DURING THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF UNCERTAIN STRENGTH. A 5% TO 10% CHANCE OF FAR EAST SIDE SHOWERS HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR SATURDAY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE/10-15% OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING FAR EAST SIDE SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY. MOST OF THE AREA LOOKS TO SIMPLY HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING, BUT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL. FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, THE GFS IS MUCH STRONGER AND DEEPER THAN THE ECMWF WITH ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THUS, THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS HIGHER THAN ON THE WEEKEND THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...NONE. CA...NONE. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376. $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
506 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015 FOG HAS PRETTY MUCH HELD OFF OVER THE CWA AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING AND DENSE FOG FORMATION LOOKING LESS LIKELY OR WIDESPREAD. HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL THE DENSE FOG ADVY GIVEN THESE TRENDS THOUGH PATCHY AREAS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. BEYOND THAT DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE CWA TODAY THROUGH WEDS AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT GRADUALLY THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENT FLOW OCCURS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDS NIGHT. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A COOL FRONT ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES OF COOLING. UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCTD SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTRMS TO FORM IN THE AFTERNOON OVER SE WY. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015 COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY EVENING OUT WEST. FAIRLY QUICK MOVING FRONT THOUGH WITH NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED...SO SNOW SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM. SHOWERS SPREAD EAST ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THIS FRONT. GFS FURTHER SOUTH WITH ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWER AND MORE WIDESPREAD OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING. OPTED FOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND INCREASED POPS OVER GUIDANCE. ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WITH PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 504 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015 LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SOME AREAS. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE HAS THESE AREAS BREAKING UP SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. LAST TO LIFT WILL BE KCYS AS A SOUTHEAST WIND PREVAILS. ALL AIRPORTS SHOULD BE VFR BY 16Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015 CONCERNS TO REMAIN LOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NON-CRITICAL AND FUELS MOISTENED BY RECENT GOOD RAINS/SNOWS. MAINLY DRY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS THEN CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN THURSDAY ONWARD. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RE LONG TERM...GCC AVIATION...GCC FIRE WEATHER...RE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
225 PM MST TUE APR 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A WARMING TREND...WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK PACIFIC STORM MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MOST OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. && .DISCUSSION...ACTIVITY ON THE RIM STARTED LATE THIS MORNING AND HAS SLOWLY BE DRIFTING TO THE S-SW WITH THESE STORMS DISSIPATING BEFORE GETTING TO A SAN CARLOS TO CLIFTON LINE. LATEST HRRR RUNS STILL HINTING AT SOME WEAK STORMS GETTING AS FAR SOUTH AS A BYLAS TO CLIFTON LINE THIS EVENING SO HAVE LEANED THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION. MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS IS GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH. AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK DAYTIME HIGHS WILL HEAT UP WITH THE WARMEST HIGHS OF 2015 SO FAR ON TAP FOR EITHER THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY. ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING STORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON SATURDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASING THIS WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER...TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY INTO NEXT TUESDAY AT THIS TIME. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALSO SHOW A COOLING TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/18Z. N OF A KSAD-CLFT LINE...TIL 29/03Z SCT-BKN 10-12K FT AGL WITH WDLY SCTD -SHRA/TS GUSTS TO 35 KTS. AFT 29/03Z CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY DECREASING. ELSEWHERE...SKC-FEW 08- 10KFT AGL. SFC WINDS ELY 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS DECREASING THIS EVENING TO 7-12 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. && .FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A BYLAS TO CLIFTON LINE INTO THIS EVENING. ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING STORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH FRIDAY. GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING BUT WILL PICK UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS TODAY. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB EACH DAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS PEAKING ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DEW POINTS STEADILY DROPPING SEVERAL DEGREES EACH DAY. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE NEXT WEEKEND WITH A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .CLIMATE...MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE FORECAST THIS WEEK WITH TUCSON HAVING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SEEING THE FIRST 95 DEGREE HIGH OF 2015 ON EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE 1ST 95 DEGREE DATE FOR TUCSON IS MAY 2ND, BUT SINCE 2000 THE AVERAGE DATE HAS BEEN APRIL 22ND. A FEW SPOTS IN FAR WRN PIMA COUNTY WILL BE NEAR RECORD HIGHS...ESPECIALLY ORGAN PIPE CACTUS NATIONAL MONUMENT. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
1012 AM MST TUE APR 28 2015 .UPDATE... JUST A MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO PRECIP CHANCES FOR SRN GILA COUNTY EAST OF GLOBE...PRIMARILY TO KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WEAK VORT MAX CURRENTLY ROTATING SOUTH ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER PER WV SAT IMAGERY. VIS SAT PICS SHOW FIELD OF STRATO-CU MOVING ALONG WITH IT AND A FEW SHOWERS KICKING OFF THE WHITE MTNS. THE 28.09Z SREF INDICATES SOME MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THIS AFTN/EVE BUT NOT MUCH...LOW PROB OF ABOVE 250 J/KG. WHILE THE 28.12Z FGZ SOUNDING HAD A SUBSTANTIAL STABLE/SUBSIDENCE LAYER...THE ABQ SOUNDING WAS NOTABLE MORE MOIST THROUGH THE COLUMN AND PWAT VALUES WERE JUST A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF TYPICAL PER SPC SOUNDING CLIMO PAGE. SPC HRRR BROWSER DEPICTS THE PAST SIX RUNS DEVELOPING SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST RIM TO THE WHITE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...REALLY SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE WITH THAT THUS I/VE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE MORNING THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THOSE WINDS ARE PROMOTING A MUCH WARMER MORNING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WITH MOST AREAS 5-15F WARMER. WARMING SHOULD LEVEL OFF THOUGH YIELDING MAX TEMPS ABOUT 3-7F WARMER THAN MONDAY. && .SYNOPSIS... LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR EAST WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER EASTERN ARIZONA TODAY. DRY WEATHER WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL RAPIDLY TAKE PLACE THIS WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS APPROACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK DURING THE LATTER PARK OF THE WEEK. FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. && .DISCUSSION.. THE VERY WESTERN FRINGES OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO AFFECT EASTERN ARIZONA WITH OCCASIONAL STRATO- CU...WHILE THE PACIFIC RIDGE SLOWLY EDGES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA. SUFFICIENT REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK VORTICITY LOBE MOVING FROM NORTHEAST ARIZONA THIS MORNING INTO EAST- CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SPARK OFF ISOLATED SHOWERS POTENTIALLY AFFECTING EASTERN GILA COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT AND DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A BUMP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER YESTERDAY AS OUR WESTERN DESERTS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE WHILE THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS PEAK NEAR 90 DEGREES. FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND THE PACIFIC RIDGE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH 500MB HEIGHTS OF 578-580DM THROUGH THE PERIOD. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM AROUND 21C ON WEDNESDAY TO 24C ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUING WARMING THROUGH THE WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER THE DESERTS. THESE READINGS STILL FALL SHORT OF RECORDS BY A FEW DEGREES...BUT WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS A BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO...BUT STILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. HEIGHTS ALOFT BEGIN TO FALL SLIGHTLY STARTING SATURDAY...BUT NOT MUCH COOLING WILL BE REALIZED INITIALLY AS HIGHS AGAIN SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE DESERTS. GFS AND EUROPEAN OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES MEANS ARE STILL ADVERTISING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT HAVE PUSHED BACK TIMING SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THIS WILL DELAY COOLER TEMPERATURES BY AROUND A DAY AND PUSH ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN BACK TO NEXT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AND LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL... BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING ACROSS THE PHOENIX METRO AREA. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KT ARE EXPECTED WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KT. WINDS WILL ABATE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER A SWITCH TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH... LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AT KIPL/KBLH. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS. && .FIRE WEATHER... THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A GENERAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME COOLING WILL FOLLOW DURING THE WEEKEND...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...NONE. CA...NONE. && $$ VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX DISCUSSION...INIGUEZ/HIRSCH AVIATION...KUHLMAN FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
1005 AM MST TUE APR 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A QUICK WARMING TREND...WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AGAIN TODAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...SUNNY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WAS NE OF TUCSON WHERE THERE WERE SOME PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. UPPER AIR PLOTS THIS MORNING PLACED 500 MB HIGH IN NEVADA WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...FLOW OVER THE WHITE MTNS WILL BECOME MORE NE THUS STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY HAVE A CHANCE TO MOVE OFF THE MTN A LITTLE FURTHER SW THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. LATEST HRRR RUNS ARE DEPICTING SOME WEAK CELLS DOWN AS FAR SOUTH AS CLIFTON IN GREENLEE COUNTY AND INTO THE SAFFORD VALLEY AND POSSIBLY THE PINALENOS IN GRAHAM COUNTY. UOFA WRF RUNS ARE ALSO IN LINE WITH ABOVE THINKING. THUS WILL RUN OUT AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING FOR GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES. NOT EXPECTING MUCH RAIN WITH MAIN THREAT BEING GUSTY WINDS NEAR STORMS. SPEAKING OF GUSTY WINDS...THE EASTERLY GRADIENT KICKED IN THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE FOR AREAS PRONE TO AN EAST WIND. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST HIGHS LOOK OK. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/12Z. FEW-SCT CLOUDS 10-12K FT AGL...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF KTUS. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHC TO CHC -SHRA N OF A KSAD TO KCLT LINE. ELY WINDS 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING...LCLY HIGHER GUSTS NR KTUS AND KDUG THRU 28/20Z THEN GRADUALLY EASING TO 7-12 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. && .FIRE WEATHER...A FEW MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH FRIDAY. GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 MPH EXPECTED AND GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH. LOCALLY PRONE AREAS TO AN EASTERLY WIND SUCH AS PORTIONS OF THE TUCSON METRO AREA WILL LIKELY SEE WIND SPEEDS 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. THE EASTERLY WINDS WILL TAPER OFF LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL PICK UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS TO TODAY. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB EACH DAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS PEAKING ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DEW POINTS STEADILY DROPPING SEVERAL DEGREES EACH DAY. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE NEXT WEEKEND WITH A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
250 PM MDT TUE APR 28 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT TUE APR 28 2015 QUIET WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE WESTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER COLORADO. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TODAY WILL LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 20S...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. HIGHER AREAS COULD PICK SEE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOWFALL IN SPOTTY AREAS. OTHERWISE SOUTHEAST PLAINS LOOK VERY STABLE...AND ALTHOUGH HRRR IS PRINTING OUT SOME LIGHT QPF IN SPOTTY AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...AM NOT TOO OPTIMISTIC THAT THIS WILL HAPPEN GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A CAP IN MODEL SOUNDINGS. WILL CONFINE POPS TO THE CONTDVD REGION FOR NOW. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. LEE TROF DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SE MTS/I- 25 CORRIDOR. WEDNESDAY LOOKS EVEN DRIER THAN TODAY...THOUGH SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MTS IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE 70S FOR THE PLAINS...60S FOR THE VALLEYS...40S AND 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. -KT .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT TUE APR 28 2015 WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE STATE BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...AS A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES TRANSLATES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THIS EMBEDDED WAVE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING AND NORTHERN COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE TAIL END OF THE SYSTEM SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHWESTERN MTS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING ALOFT UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE. SOME INCREASED MOISTURE WITHIN THE INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HELPS TO DEVELOP GENERALLY ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON THURSDAY...WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND WARM AIR ALOFT HELPING TO BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S AND 80S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THURSDAY...WITH MAINLY 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LATEST MODELS ARE A TAD FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE PASSING WAVE THURSDAY NIGHT...OWNING TO A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS AND A FEW POSSIBLE SHOWERS OR STORMS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. INCREASING MOISTURE AND THE TAIL END OF THE PASSING WAVE TO HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ON FRIDAY...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER AND NEAR THE MTS LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS SPREADING OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS...WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITHIN DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. FRIDAYS HIGHS TO BE SOME 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. SATURDAY-TUESDAY...GENERALLY WEAK WESTERLY FLOW PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SEVERAL MINOR WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW LEADING TO MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE DESERT SW COULD BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT TUE APR 28 2015 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS UNDER 10 KTS. -KT && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KT/MW LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
328 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 .DISCUSSION... CURRENT-TONIGHT...THE TREND OF THE RADAR MOSAIC LOOP THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAS BEEN TO HAVE THE STORMS PUSH TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/TROUGH MOVED THROUGH INDIAN RIVER AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF OKEECHOBEE...SAINT LUCIE AND MARTIN AND INTO THE ATLANTIC. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN FROM THE LOW CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LOCAL HRRR MODEL IS A LITTLE SLOW IN HAVING THE RAIN EXITING AT 7 PM/23Z. CANT RULE OUT LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS MID LEVEL IMPULSES CROSS OVERHEAD AND THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE 250MB JET APPROACHES FLORIDA. ON THE MAP...THE DEVELOPING LOW SOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA LIFTS NORTHEAST TO NORTHERN FLORIDA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND IN THE ATLANTIC EAST OF GEORGIA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING THE STALLING BOUNDARY VICINITY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS EXTENDING FROM THE LOW PUSHES ACROSS FLORIDA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE KEY WEDNESDAY EVENING. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST WED MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. MID LEVEL IMPULSES CROSSING OVERHEAD AND THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE 250MB JET APPROACHING FLORIDA ENHANCES RAIN CHANCES TO AROUND 50 PERCENT THIS EVENING THEN TAPERING OFF TO PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES FROM THE LOW OVERCAST SKIES THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WED...LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST. WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE FORECAST TO BE SOUTHWEST AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HAS YET TO CLEAR FLORIDA. THIS WILL KEEP MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE..500MB IMPULSES AND RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE 250MB JET OVER THE AREA RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES INITIALLY THEN CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CLOUDINESS LIFTS EAST AND AWAY. THU-THU NIGHT...(MODIFIED PREV DISC) THE SURFACE LOW PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS AN ASCD COLD FRONT PULLS SOUTHWARD AND EAST WELL AWAY FROM ECFL. DRIER AIR WL SLOWLY SLIDE DOWN THE PENINSULA. LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY VEER TO N/NNE BY EARLY EVENING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S...EXCEPT SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE INTO THE INTERIOR AND AWAY FROM LARGER METROPOLITAN AREAS. FRI-MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST TO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER INFLUENCE. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN BELOW 20 PERCENT. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING AN ISOLD SHRA DURING THIS STRETCH WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OR PERHAPS OVER THE TREASURE COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. SLIGHTLY UNSEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES (HIGHS/LOWS) FOR FRI-SAT WITH NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS AGAIN FOR SUN- MON. && .AVIATION... VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR THIS EVENING AND TEMPO IFR 00Z- 15Z. && .MARINE...NOAA BUOY 009 WAS RECORDING SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 12 TO 14 KNOTS AND 2 FOOT SEAS. THE TWO SCRIPPS BUOYS AT 4 AND 6NM OFF THE BEACH WERE RECORDING 1 TO 2 FOOT SEAS. TONIGHT-WED...SOUTHEAST WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TRACKS NORTHEAST TO NORTHERN FLORIDA THEN EAST OF GEORGIA BY DAYS END WEDNESDAY. THU-SAT...WINDS BECOMING W/NW ON THU...THEN NW/N THU NIGHT- FRI. LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEEDS AT PRESENT DUE TO OVERALL STRENGTH OF LOW/PLACEMENT/EXACT TRACK. POST LOW PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY RELAXES THU INTO FRI...THEN FALLING BACK TO AOB 10 KTS FOR SAT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 68 85 66 79 / 40 50 10 10 MCO 67 87 67 82 / 40 40 10 10 MLB 69 88 67 80 / 50 40 10 10 VRB 67 89 67 83 / 50 40 10 10 LEE 69 85 67 79 / 40 40 10 10 SFB 68 87 67 80 / 40 50 10 20 ORL 69 87 68 81 / 40 50 10 20 FPR 69 88 67 84 / 50 40 20 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...WIMMER LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
257 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 .NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]... SIMILAR TO TODAY, THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WILL BE COMPLEX. A SURFACE LOW IS SITUATED SOUTH OF LOUISIANA WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING WEST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH NW FLORIDA TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT OF TIMING AND EXACT LOCATION OF THE LOW. THE GFS AND HRRR SHOW THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASING AFTER 03Z. POPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT. THE STRENGTH OF THE STORMS WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE AMOUNT OF TIME IN THE WARM SECTOR. WITH 500- 1000 J/KG CAPE AND 50-60 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR, SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S. .SHORT TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]... SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE PARENT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HOWEVER, WITH THE LOW EXITING THE REGION, SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR OF BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT LOWS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING TO BE IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. .LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]... A MODEST UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD, KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION... [THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY] MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PERIODS OF IFR AFTER 06Z DUE TO FOG AND LOW CEILINGS. MENTIONED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING TOMORROW. && .MARINE... WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OR THE AREA AND OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE FOR THE WEEKEND. && .FIRE WEATHER... HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. && .HYDROLOGY... SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, WITH OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS THAN AN INCH. WHILE LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE, THE EXPECTED AVERAGE TOTALS SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS OUR AREA. SOME AREA RIVERS MAY SEE INCREASED FLOWS IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT NOT MANY SHOULD REACH FLOOD STAGE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TALLAHASSEE 66 79 56 78 56 / 50 40 10 0 0 PANAMA CITY 68 73 57 75 60 / 40 30 10 0 0 DOTHAN 62 71 53 74 54 / 60 40 10 0 0 ALBANY 61 71 52 74 53 / 60 50 20 0 0 VALDOSTA 63 78 55 79 55 / 50 50 10 0 0 CROSS CITY 66 80 58 77 57 / 50 50 10 0 0 APALACHICOLA 70 79 59 76 60 / 40 30 10 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL BAY- COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL GULF-SOUTH WALTON. GA...NONE. AL...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ NEAR TERM...WESTON SHORT TERM...CAMP LONG TERM...CAMP AVIATION...WESTON MARINE...CAMP FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN HYDROLOGY...CAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1215 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1043 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 SKIES ARE CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK SO NO UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY) ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 ANOTHER CHILLY START TO THE DAY IS ON TAP...WITH MID 30S AND PATCHY FROST TO START THE DAY NORTH OF I-74. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS ILLINOIS FROM NE TO SW WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR. THE HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE 850-925MB LAYER ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE NAM AND GFS. FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS FORMATION WILL BE MORE CONCENTRATED THERE... BUT SUNSHINE SHOULD STILL BE THE RULE FOR THE DAY IN MOST AREAS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID 60S NEAR INDIANA AND THE UPPER 60S WEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING HEIGHTS WILL PEAK BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH OUR HIGHER WIND GUSTS FOR THE DAY. A FEW GUSTS MAY REACH 16-17 MPH... BUT OVERALL WINDS SHOULD BE LESS GUSTY THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. .LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 INITIAL CONCERN FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS WITH RAIN POTENTIAL MID WEEK. UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS NORTHEAST TO HUDSON BAY PROGGED BY ALL MODELS TO CARVE OUT A SIZABLE CLOUDS LOW OVER ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY...DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MIDWEST BY THURSDAY MORNING. GFS IS A BIT FURTHER EAST WITH THIS PROJECTION...WITH GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORING A PATH ALONG THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA BORDER. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COLD CORE WITH THE UPPER LOW (500 MB TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW -20C) INTRODUCES SOME STEEP LAPSE RATES. ALSO MENTIONED SOME ISOLATED THUNDER AS WELL. HAVE LINGERED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POP`S ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE LOW SETTLING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...HAVE ALSO MENTIONED SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF I-57 CLOSER TO THE LOW TRACK. FURTHER OUT IN TIME...UPPER FLOW SHIFTS MORE ZONAL TO START THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING A TROUGH MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER...WITH THE ECMWF DEVELOPING MORE OF A BROADENING EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE GFS REMAINS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND CLOSER TO THE BORDER. STILL NOT VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RAIN POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY...AND HAVE PULLED BACK SOME ON THE POP`S. SATURDAY NIGHT...HAVE FOLLOWED MORE OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF A POTENTIAL MCS SYSTEM ROLLING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE BROADENING TROUGH APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE GENERAL IDEA FOR TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITH WARMING CONDITIONS... ALTHOUGH A BRIEF COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES DIP CLOSER TO 0C AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES. HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE US AND THIS KEEPS CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. ONE LINE TAFS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTH- NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE THE RULE NEXT 24HRS. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AUTEN SHORT TERM...SHIMON LONG TERM...GEELHART AVIATION...AUTEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
102 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. A BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 100 PM UPDATE...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST, AS A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO PUSH WESTWARD OUT OF NEW BRUNSWICK. OTHERWISE, MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS TO MATCH THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION THIS MORNING AND THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. WV SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED ANOTHER SPOKE OF ENERGY THAT WILL AID THESE SHOWERS TO MOVE SSW TODAY FROM THE MARITIMES. THE LATEST RUN OF THE 3KM HRRR AND THE NAM MATCHING UP WELL W/THE LATEST CONDITIONS AS THE GFS. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO INCREASE THE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS AND EXPAND THE AREAL COVERAGE AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WERE DOWN IN THE MID 30S IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS W/DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 30S. PRECIP COULD FALL AS A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN OR EVEN SOME SLEET THIS MORNING BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM LATER THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 40S AND 50S BY THE AFTERNOON WILL PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN. SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE LLVLS ESPECIALLY IN THE 0-3KM LAYER W/0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS. WINDS WERE INCREASED TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SETUP. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF INTO EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LLVL CONVERGENCE AND MID LEVEL FORCING WEAKEN. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP BACK INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT W/RAIN FOR THE MOST PART. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SAY ABOVE 1000 FT AS SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES W/EASTERN AREAS NEAR THE MAINE-NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER SEEING UP TO 0.25 INCHES. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WE COULD STILL SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND INTO WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT THE UPPER LOW TO BE REPLACED BY RIDGING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGHS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WE COULD BE LOOKING AT HIGHS REACHING CLOSE TO 70 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS. && .AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR THIS MORNING W/PERIODS OF VFR. MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO RETURN FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WHILE KBGR AND KBHB ARE EXPECTED TO SEE CONDITIONS GO TO VFR. ALL TERMINALS TO EXPERIENCE VFR INTO EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN CONDITIONS COULD DROP BACK TO MVFR BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOWER CIGS MOVING IN FROM NEW BRUNSWICK. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: 11 AM UPDATE...HAVE ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS WINDS AND HAVES ARE AT MARGINAL LEVELS AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH THE DAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WINDS/SEAS RIGHT SCA LEVELS AND WINDS TO PICK UP AFTER 12Z(8AM). THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL STAY AS IS FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED A FEW MORE HRS W/THAT SECOND SURGE OF WIND MENTIONED ABOVE. SOME OF THE SOUNDING DATA ESPECIALLY THE NAM SHOW A BRIEF SURGE OF WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY AT THE JONESPORT BUOY(44027). THIS SURGE LOOKS LIKE IT DROPS OFF AFTER 00Z(8PM) AS WINDS DROP OFF TO 15-20 KTS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DOWN TO 2-4 FT. SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS MAY THEN INCREASE THE SMALL CRAFT LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND AS AN OCEAN STORM TRACKS TO OUR EAST. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT SHORT TERM...DUDA LONG TERM...DUDA AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
359 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPLITTING WITH ONE SHORTWAVE DIVING SE THROUGH CENTRAL MN AND ANOTHER MORE SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST THROUGH NRN MN AS IT APPROACHES LAKE SUPERIOR. THE ENERGY SPLIT RESULTS IN WEAKENING DYNAMICS OUT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS DEPICTED BY WEAKENING MID- LVL Q-VECT CONVERGENCE. AND THIS PARTLY EXPLAINS WHY LINE OF SHRA APPROACHING FM THE WEST IS ALSO WEAKENING AND BREAKING APART AS NOTED ON REGIONAL RADAR LOOP. TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM MN IS EXPECTED TO CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. MODEL Q-VECT CONV INDICATES BEST Q-VECT CONV SPLITTING NORTH AND SOUTH OF CWA SO WOULD EXPECT WEAKENING TREND TO CONTINUE WITH APPROACHING LINE OF SHRA THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE DRY FCST TO CONTINUE ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. SECONDARY SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING NW ONTARIO WL THEN BEGIN DIGGING MORE SHARPLY TO THE S TONIGHT WITH MODELS SUGGESTING A MID LEVEL LOW BEGINNING TO CLOSE OFF JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AN EXPANSION OF PCPN N AND E OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...CLOSER TO GREATEST HEIGHT FALLS. PCPN MAY TRY TO DEVELOP S INTO ERN UPPER MI...BUT LACK OF DEEP FORCING SUGGESTS MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE THRU THE NIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 30S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WEDNESDAY...CLOSED LOW AND ASSOC MID-LVL TROF CONTINUES TO DESCEND SOUTH OVER ERN UPPER MI. 12Z NAM SOUNDING FOR KERY SHOWS SHALLOW LOW- LVL MOISTURE EXTENDING TO 7-8 KFT BUT REMAINING BELOW -10C ISOTHERM. WOULD EXPECT ONLY SPRINKLES AT BEST FOR ERN COUNTIES (POSSIBLY AIDED BY UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW) AS BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING/Q-VECT CONV AND DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS EAST OF FCST AREA. N WINDS OF 10-15MPH GUSTING TO 20MPH WILL KEEP LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE LOCATIONS COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE 40S. FARTHER INLAND HIGHS COULD REACH INTO THE 50S. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 OVERALL...LITTLE CHANGES IN THE FORECAST THOUGHTS OVER THE LAST 24HRS...WITH THE REGION SEEING LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY AND A TRANSITION TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THIS TRANSITION WILL BE LED BY AN UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER WESTERN CANADA. THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA UNDER ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES AND SURFACE TROUGHS LEADING TO LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. BEFORE THAT UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT...THE START OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL SEE A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE 700-500MB LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TO THE EAST OF A LINE FROM MUNISING TO MANISTIQUE. IT DID APPEAR THAT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH NORTHERLY FLOW UPSLOPE HELP TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS/DRIZZLE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL (NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTALS AND SNOW)...SO DID ADD A MENTION OF RAIN TO THAT AREA FOR WED NIGHT INTO THURS MORNING. THE DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...ALLOWING THE UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN CANADA. THAT WILL LEAD TO DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA AND IN TURN DECREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH WITH THE COOL AIR COMING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A NICE START TO THE DAY IN THE U.P. WITH SUNNY CONDITIONS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE (SLIDING EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED IN WESTERN CANADA WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN THE REST OF THE CWA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. LIKE THE SHORTWAVE AND FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...IT WILL BE RUNNING INTO EXISTING DRY AIR AND ALSO BECOMING SHEARED OUT. THUS...EXPECT THE SYSTEM/PRECIPITATION TO DIMINISH AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE WESTERN U.P. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN DIMINISHING AS IT SHIFTS EAST OVER THE REST OF THE CWA IN THE EVENING. BEHIND THAT DISTURBANCE...ZONAL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHERN CONSUS AND EXPECT THAT TO LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT (OVER THE LAST 6-8 RUNS) WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ON SATURDAY AT KSAW/KIWD/KIMT AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER FOR SUNDAY. THUS...WILL TREND THEIR FORECASTS UP TOWARDS THAT IDEA FOR BOTH OF THOSE DAYS. WITH WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT...SHOULD SEE LAKE BREEZES DEVELOP ON SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON A DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO TRACK EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS TO STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT THERE HAVE BEEN SOME INDICATIONS THAT IT MAY SLIDE NORTH AND AFFECT THE AREA ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL LEAD TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL COME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SHIFTS EAST AND INTERACTS WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. WILL FOCUS ON THIS TIME FOR THE BEST RAIN CHANCES AND TREND POPS UP BEFORE DIMINISHING THEM ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WAVES DEPART. STILL COULD SEE SOME SHOWER LINGERING INTO MONDAY NIGHT OR EVEN TUESDAY MORNING DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS DEPARTS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 ALTHOUGH A WEAK LOW PRES TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING...DRY AIR WILL PERSIST IN THE LOWER LEVELS... ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST OVER 15 KT AT KCMX AND KSAW ON WED AHEAD OF HIGH PRES BUILDING DOWN FROM HUDSON BAY. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...UNDER 15KT...AS A VERY WEAK LOW PRES TROF PASSES THE AREA THIS EVENING. IN ITS WAKE... ANOTHER HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER HUDSON BAY AND EXTEND A RIDGE S INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WED/THU. AS THE HIGH BEGINS RIDGING S INTO THE UPPER LAKES LATE TONIGHT/WED...NNW WINDS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY GUST TO AROUND 20KT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER THE W. WITH WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER LAKES THU THRU SAT...WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT...MOSTLY UNDER 15KT. A LOW PRES TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN BUT IT LOOKS WEAK AS WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BLO 20 KTS. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...VOSS LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...VOSS MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
318 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 453 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM IA TO JAMES BAY...SANDWICHED BTWN A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND CONTINUED BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ENCOMPASSING SE CANADA AND THE NE CONUS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS SUPPORTING SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE UPPER LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. TO THE W...APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF IS ACCOMAPANIED BY A BAND OF SHRA IN NW MN. APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF WILL REACH WRN UPPER MI LATE AFTN/EVENING. WITH DEEP LAYER FORCING WEAKENING PER QVECTORS...A LACK OF MOISTURE INFLOW...AND A VERY DRY ANTECEDANT AIR MASS PER 00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS...MOST OF THE MODELS APPEAR ON TRACK SHOWING APPROACHING PCPN DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. SO...PLAN TO MAINTAIN A DRY FCST. SECOND SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING INTO NRN MANITOBA WILL MOVE INTO NRN ONTARIO AND THEN BEGIN DIGGING MORE SHARPLY TO THE S TONIGHT WITH MODELS SUGGESTING A MID LEVEL LOW BEGINNING TO CLOSE OFF JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AN EXPANSION OF PCPN N AND E OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...CLOSER TO GREATEST HEIGHT FALLS. PCPN MAY TRY TO DEVELOP S INTO UPPER MI...BUT LACK OF DEEP FORCING HERE SUGGESTS DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE THRU THE NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...WEAK PRES GRADIENT TODAY WILL ALLOW LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE BOARD...LEADING TO COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG THE LAKES. IT WILL BE COOLEST IN THE ERN FCST AREA ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE DUE TO ONSHORE WINDS THRU THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S THERE. IN THE INTERIOR...FAVORED THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THAT WARMER GUIDANCE HAS VERIFIED BETTER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. EXPECT HIGHEST TEMPS IN THE INTERIOR W WHERE MAX READINGS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. DEEP MIXING IN THE INTERIOR WILL TAP DRIER AIR ALOFT...RESULTING IN AFTN DWPTS IN THE MID 20S...PERHAPS LOWER. THIS WILL SEND RH DOWN TO AROUND 20PCT IN THE INTERIOR W. FROM A FIRE WX STANDOINT...FORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 OVERALL...LITTLE CHANGES IN THE FORECAST THOUGHTS OVER THE LAST 24HRS...WITH THE REGION SEEING LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY AND A TRANSITION TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THIS TRANSITION WILL BE LED BY AN UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER WESTERN CANADA. THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA UNDER ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES AND SURFACE TROUGHS LEADING TO LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. BEFORE THAT UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT...THE START OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL SEE A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE 700-500MB LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TO THE EAST OF A LINE FROM MUNISING TO MANISTIQUE. IT DID APPEAR THAT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH NORTHERLY FLOW UPSLOPE HELP TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS/DRIZZLE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL (NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTALS AND SNOW)...SO DID ADD A MENTION OF RAIN TO THAT AREA FOR WED NIGHT INTO THURS MORNING. THE DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...ALLOWING THE UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN CANADA. THAT WILL LEAD TO DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA AND IN TURN DECREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH WITH THE COOL AIR COMING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A NICE START TO THE DAY IN THE U.P. WITH SUNNY CONDITIONS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE (SLIDING EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED IN WESTERN CANADA WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN THE REST OF THE CWA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. LIKE THE SHORTWAVE AND FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...IT WILL BE RUNNING INTO EXISTING DRY AIR AND ALSO BECOMING SHEARED OUT. THUS...EXPECT THE SYSTEM/PRECIPITATION TO DIMINISH AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE WESTERN U.P. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN DIMINISHING AS IT SHIFTS EAST OVER THE REST OF THE CWA IN THE EVENING. BEHIND THAT DISTURBANCE...ZONAL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHERN CONSUS AND EXPECT THAT TO LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT (OVER THE LAST 6-8 RUNS) WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ON SATURDAY AT KSAW/KIWD/KIMT AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER FOR SUNDAY. THUS...WILL TREND THEIR FORECASTS UP TOWARDS THAT IDEA FOR BOTH OF THOSE DAYS. WITH WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT...SHOULD SEE LAKE BREEZES DEVELOP ON SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON A DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO TRACK EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS TO STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT THERE HAVE BEEN SOME INDICATIONS THAT IT MAY SLIDE NORTH AND AFFECT THE AREA ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL LEAD TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL COME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SHIFTS EAST AND INTERACTS WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. WILL FOCUS ON THIS TIME FOR THE BEST RAIN CHANCES AND TREND POPS UP BEFORE DIMINISHING THEM ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WAVES DEPART. STILL COULD SEE SOME SHOWER LINGERING INTO MONDAY NIGHT OR EVEN TUESDAY MORNING DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS DEPARTS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 ALTHOUGH A WEAK LOW PRES TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING...DRY AIR WILL PERSIST IN THE LOWER LEVELS... ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST OVER 15 KT AT KCMX AND KSAW ON WED AHEAD OF HIGH PRES BUILDING DOWN FROM HUDSON BAY. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 453 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE LIGHT...UNDER 15KT...THRU THIS EVENING AS SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA GIVES WAY TO A VERY WEAK LOW PRES TROF THAT WILL PASS LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. IN ITS WAKE... ANOTHER HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER HUDSON BAY AND EXTEND A RIDGE S INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WED/THU. AS THE HIGH BEGINS RIDGING S INTO THE UPPER LAKES LATE TONIGHT/WED...NNW WINDS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY GUST TO AROUND 20KT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER THE W. WITH WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER LAKES THU THRU SAT...WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT...MOSTLY UNDER 15KT. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...VOSS MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
156 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 453 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM IA TO JAMES BAY...SANDWICHED BTWN A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND CONTINUED BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ENCOMPASSING SE CANADA AND THE NE CONUS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS SUPPORTING SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE UPPER LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. TO THE W...APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF IS ACCOMAPANIED BY A BAND OF SHRA IN NW MN. APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF WILL REACH WRN UPPER MI LATE AFTN/EVENING. WITH DEEP LAYER FORCING WEAKENING PER QVECTORS...A LACK OF MOISTURE INFLOW...AND A VERY DRY ANTECEDANT AIR MASS PER 00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS...MOST OF THE MODELS APPEAR ON TRACK SHOWING APPROACHING PCPN DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. SO...PLAN TO MAINTAIN A DRY FCST. SECOND SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING INTO NRN MANITOBA WILL MOVE INTO NRN ONTARIO AND THEN BEGIN DIGGING MORE SHARPLY TO THE S TONIGHT WITH MODELS SUGGESTING A MID LEVEL LOW BEGINNING TO CLOSE OFF JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AN EXPANSION OF PCPN N AND E OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...CLOSER TO GREATEST HEIGHT FALLS. PCPN MAY TRY TO DEVELOP S INTO UPPER MI...BUT LACK OF DEEP FORCING HERE SUGGESTS DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE THRU THE NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...WEAK PRES GRADIENT TODAY WILL ALLOW LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE BOARD...LEADING TO COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG THE LAKES. IT WILL BE COOLEST IN THE ERN FCST AREA ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE DUE TO ONSHORE WINDS THRU THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S THERE. IN THE INTERIOR...FAVORED THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THAT WARMER GUIDANCE HAS VERIFIED BETTER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. EXPECT HIGHEST TEMPS IN THE INTERIOR W WHERE MAX READINGS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. DEEP MIXING IN THE INTERIOR WILL TAP DRIER AIR ALOFT...RESULTING IN AFTN DWPTS IN THE MID 20S...PERHAPS LOWER. THIS WILL SEND RH DOWN TO AROUND 20PCT IN THE INTERIOR W. FROM A FIRE WX STANDOINT...FORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN HARD TO COME BY IN THE LONG TERM AS THE AREA WILL BE DOMINATED BY A SFC RIDGE AT LEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. AN UPPER WAVE WILL TRANSIT THE CENTRAL OR ERN CWA WED INTO WED NIGHT...BUT WILL BE LACKING MOISTURE SUFFICIENT FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN E AND POSSIBLY SOME SPRINKLES OVER THE NCENTRAL (AIDED BY UPSLOPE FORCING) WED INTO WED NIGHT. THE NAM SHOWS THE MOST QPF BUT IT IS ALSO STRONGEST WITH THE WAVE AND HAS BEEN SUBSTANTIALLY OVERDOING LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE LATELY. N WINDS OF 10-15MPH GUSTING TO 20MPH WILL KEEP LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE LOCATIONS COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE 40S. INLAND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S. SFC RIDGING TAKES MOVES SQUARELY BACK OVER THE CWA ON THU BEFORE MOVING OUT ON FRI EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THU WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPS TO WED AS N-NE FLOW CONTINUES...BUT SW-W FLOW AND AN OVERALL MUCH WARMER AIRMASS ON FRI WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S E AND THE 60S W. THANKFULLY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ON FRI...WHICH WILL HELP OFFSET FIRE RISK AS RH VALUES DROP INTO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE FAR W LATE FRI AS DYING SHORTWAVE MOVES TOWARD THE CWA WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE CWA SAT THROUGH MON...BUT PRECIP POTENTIAL ON SAT LOOKS LOW. FOR SUN AND MON...BETTER MOISTURE ALONG WITH STRONGER SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND BETTER WAA FORCING WILL MAKE FOR BETTER PRECIP CHANCES. EXACT AMOUNTS/TIMING IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS HARD TO PIN DOWN AT THAT TIME RANGE. DOES LOOK LIKE TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE 70S IN SOME SPOTS SAT INTO MON...BUT THAT IS ALSO DEPENDENT ON SHORTWAVE TRACK/PRECIP/CLOUD COVER. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 ALTHOUGH A WEAK LOW PRES TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING...DRY AIR WILL PERSIST IN THE LOWER LEVELS... ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST OVER 15 KT AT KCMX AND KSAW ON WED AHEAD OF HIGH PRES BUILDING DOWN FROM HUDSON BAY. .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 453 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE LIGHT...UNDER 15KT...THRU THIS EVENING AS SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA GIVES WAY TO A VERY WEAK LOW PRES TROF THAT WILL PASS LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. IN ITS WAKE... ANOTHER HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER HUDSON BAY AND EXTEND A RIDGE S INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WED/THU. AS THE HIGH BEGINS RIDGING S INTO THE UPPER LAKES LATE TONIGHT/WED...NNW WINDS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY GUST TO AROUND 20KT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER THE W. WITH WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER LAKES THU THRU SAT...WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT...MOSTLY UNDER 15KT. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...TITUS AVIATION...VOSS MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
330 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 AT 330 PM...A VARIETY OF WEATHER WAS OCCURRING ACROSS THE CWA. SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER TODAY. THE 4KM NMM WRF...AS WELL AS THE 18Z NAM AND THE HRRR ALL INDICATED THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT. THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THE VORT MAX LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AS THE EVENING WEARS ON...BRINGING AN END TO THE THREAT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE 30S WITH A FEW 20S POSSIBLE IN LOW LYING LOCATIONS. OVERALL...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...A CLOSED LOW WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION BY EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE A BACK DOOR SURFACE COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTHEAST. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE 60S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 MILD TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE. THERE WILL BE A WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR RAIN ON FRIDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS SHIFTS TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW LEADING TO WEAK FAST-MOVING IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THURSDAY...DRY AND MILD UNDER A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVENT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM DEVELOPING...BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY FALL TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS MID 60S TO NEAR 70S INLAND...WITH A LAKE BREEZE LIMITING TEMPS TO THE 50S BY LAKE SUPERIOR...PERHAPS AS COLD AS THE MID 40S ALONG THE NORTH SHORE FROM SILVER BAY NORTH. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN FRIDAY...MOVING ACROSS FROM WEST TO EAST SIMILAR TO TODAY /TUES/ BUT WITH MORE INTENSE RAINFALL. TOTAL PRECIP WILL AMOUNT TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH. ECMWF/GEM A BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS...BUT IN GENERALLY THINK THE RAIN WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA IN THE MORNING INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN IN THE AFTERNOON. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT NEAR FREEZING WHERE SKIES REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT IN THE ARROWHEAD REGION...ELSEWHERE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S. HIGHS COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 50S BY THE LAKE TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. SAT/SUN/MON/TUES...BEHIND THIS FRONT ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AT MID/UPPER LEVELS RESULTING A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIP MOST DAYS...BUT NO DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE A TOTAL WASHOUT. AT THIS POINT SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL...BUT WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN IT IS DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN TIMING OF ANY INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM. TEMPS WARM DUE TO SOME LOW LEVEL RIDGING THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...IN THE 60S BY LAKE SUPERIOR. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS...IN THE 60S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CEILINGS AT BRD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AREA OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN HAS WEAKENED AS IT MOVED EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS MORNING PER VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR. DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT HAS ERODED MUCH OF THE LOWER STRATUS DECK...WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME STRATUS TO REACH BRD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON CAUSING A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CEILINGS. A SECOND ROUND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON SO INCLUDED A MENTION OF VCSH AT HYR...BUT AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP EAST OF HYR AROUND THE LATE AFTERNOON...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...BECOMING NEAR-CALM OVERNIGHT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 37 64 35 55 / 10 10 0 0 INL 32 65 35 68 / 10 10 0 0 BRD 34 70 39 68 / 0 0 0 0 HYR 38 65 34 61 / 20 0 0 0 ASX 36 62 33 55 / 0 10 0 0 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DAP LONG TERM...JJM AVIATION...JJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
308 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON...AND EXTENDED FROM NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AS OF THIS WRITING...AND IS WORKING INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WINDS HAVE BECOME GENERALLY NORTH OR NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND FLUCTUATE FOLLOWING A DIURNAL TREND FROM 5-15 MPH. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK EASTWARD AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OTHERWISE...A QUIET PERIOD AHEAD AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE DAKOTAS. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON NEAR ALEXANDRIA AND WORKING THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES AROUND 9PM...AND THROUGH EAU CLAIRE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BEHIND THE CLEARING...DRIER AIR WILL SURGE IN WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S...SO OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS WESTERN MN STILL LOOK TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S...BUT A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS MAY APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK IF WINDS GO CALM OVERNIGHT. FOR TOMORROW...CLEAR SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING QUICKLY IN THE MORNING AND HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 70S IN WESTERN MINNESOTA...TO UPPER 60S IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 LONG TERM TRENDS WILL DEPEND UPON ON THE ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER JET STREAM AND ASSOCIATED EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES THRU NEXT WEEK. WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY WILL BE CONTROLLED BY THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INITIALLY...THEN DIVING S/SE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE SE CONUS BY FRIDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON STATE WILL MOVE EASTWARD...WHICH WILL INITIALLY SLOW AND WEAKEN BEFORE THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW DEPARTS TO THE S/SE. EVENTUALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY FRIDAY/FRIDAY AFTN. SFC CONVERGENCE IS WEAK/OR WEAKENS AS THE COLD FRONT/SHORT WAVE ENCOUNTERS THE CONFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT. ONCE A STRONGER JET STREAK MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY...THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE W/NW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE REMAINS ENOUGH CONTINUITY WITH A NARROW BAND OF SHRA TO CONTINUE CHC POPS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THRU THE UPPER MIDWEST. LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS THE MEAN UPPER FLOW REMAINS W/WNW AND STRENGTHENS SOME...ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS TIME...MOISTURE IS DEEPER AND ALLOWS FOR A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTN AS INSTABILITY PARAMETERS MAXIMIZE. SHEAR VALUES /0-6KM/ REMAINED UNFAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...BUT IT NEEDS TO BE WATCHED BASED ON SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE EC/GFS ON THE FRONT POSITION AND OVERALL UPPER FLOW. THE 85H OF THE 5-DAY MEAN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD /MAY 4-MAY 12/ HAS TRENDED TOWARD A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN AS AN 85H RIDGE BEGINS TO HOLD IN THE SE CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. LEADING TOWARD DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD AND POSSIBLY A BETTER CHC OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 THE BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL MN WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS IT ENTERS WEST CENTRAL WI THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW-END VFR CATEGORY. THE MAIN SITE TO EXPERIENCE NOTABLE REDUCTIONS TO IFR WILL BE KAXN...UNTIL MID AFTERNOON WHEN RUC 0.5KM AGL CONDENSATIONAL PRESSURE DEFICITS INDICATE IMPROVEMENT. BY 00Z...ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR WITH ONLY FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 10KFT. WINDS WILL BE NNW AROUND 10-12KTS TODAY...THEN BECOME LIGHT NNE THIS EVE INTO WEDNESDAY. KMSP... MAIN WINDOW FOR SHOWERS IS BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z...WITH A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FIELD DURING THAT TIME AS WELL. CIGS AROUND 5KFT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING THIS EVE. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED NIGHT...VFR. WINDS ENE 5-10 KTS. THU...VFR. WINDS E 5-10 KTS. FRI...VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WINDS S 10 KTS. SAT...VFR. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SPD LONG TERM...JLT AVIATION...LS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1231 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 .UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 A COLD FRONT BISECTS THE STATE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN EXISTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FROM NORTH CENTRAL MN THROUGH EAST CENTRAL SD ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. MULTIPLE WRF FORECASTS INDICATE THE BAND OF LIGHT RAIN WEAKENING...WITH A FEW MEMBERS EVEN SHOWING DISSIPATION THIS MORNING...AS IT HEADS INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST AREAS OF MN. THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE FORECAST WEAKENING OF THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS/THERMAL GRADIENT. HOWEVER...THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TIME PERIODS ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS SOME WEAKENING FORECAST THIS MORNING...EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI WILL BE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 250MB JET THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH BEING UNDER THE SHORT WAVE/COLD TROUGH AT 500 MB. NSHARP PROFILES FROM THE NAM AND GFS SHOW RATHER STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OCCURRING. THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK FORCING AND LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD YIELD ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE TWIN CITIES...WITH THE ACTIVITY WORKING INTO WEST CENTRAL WI AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN DISSIPATING EARLY THIS EVENING. HENCE...FOLLOWED THE IDEA OF THE NSSL WRF AND NCAR ENSEMBLE WRF. THE LATTER SHOWS THAT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CAN BE SEEN QUITE WELL IN THE NCAR ENSEMBLE SOUNDING FOR KMSP. IF ONE WERE TO REMOVE A FEW OF THE DRIER PROFILES...THE SOUNDING WOULD HAVE A BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PROFILE. THEREFORE...USED SOME 20/30 POPS FOR TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE MN CWA AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WESTERN WI. A CONCERN TODAY IS THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST DUE TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS. WENT A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT THIS MAY STILL BE TOO WARM AND MAY NEED TO BE TWEAKED FURTHER THIS MORNING. CLEARING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKED TOO WARM OVER OUR WESTERN CWA DUE TO DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. USED A BLEND OF BCCONSRAW AND GEMNHBC WHICH BROUGHT LOWS DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MN. && .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 THE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE A DECIDEDLY MORE SUMMER-LIKE UPPER AIR PATTERN...ONCE THE DEEP AND PERSISTENT ERN NOAM UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND...SETTING UP A WAVY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN CONUS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE LONG TERM WILL START WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE PLAINS AS AN UPPER LOW DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE ERN NOAM UPPER LOW. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS WRN WI ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH ANY INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHOWERS BENEATH THE UPPER COLD POOL LOOK TO STAY OVER ERN WI. THIS FEATURE MOVES TOWARD INDIANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TAKING THE CLOUD COVER WITH IT. AT THE SFC...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DEEP MIXING IS EXPECTED BOTH DAYS...AND AS WE HAVE SEEN THROUGHOUT THIS SPRING...THIS CALLS FOR LOWERING DEWPOINTS BELOW GUIDANCE AND FAVORING BIAS CORRECTED FORECASTS FOR HIGHS...WHICH WAS DONE BOTH DAYS. THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH MAINLY MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED. UNLIKE TODAYS FRONT...THIS FRONT WILL MAINTAIN BETTER DEFINITION COMING INTO MN...WITH RAINFALL CHANCES LOOKING MORE LIKELY WITH THIS FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...LIKE TODAYS FRONT...IT WILL BE WASHING OUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE BECOMES SHEARED OUT...MEANING RAINFALL CHANCES ARE BETTER TO THE WEST AS OPPOSED TO THE EAST. DID RAISE POPS INTO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY FOR WRN MN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS MODEL AGREEMENT IS LOOKING BETTER ON RAIN MOVING INTO THE WEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. DID REMOVE THUNDER WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW NO INSTABILITY PRESENT WITH THE WAVE AS IT MOVES THROUGH. FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP...WE WILL SEE A PLUME OF RATHER MILD H85 AIR MOVE INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF FRIDAYS SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF CONTINUING TO SHOW H85 TEMPS IN EXCESS OF +12C. DID ADD SOME BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GRIDS INTO THE INITIAL CENTRAL REGION BLEND FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY TO GET MORE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE GRIDS FOR SATURDAY...WHICH LOOKS TO OFFER SOME SUNNY SKIES BEFORE THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT. AS FOR THAT WARM FRONT...THOUGH SPREAD IS TYPICAL OF WHAT YOU WOULD EXPECT THIS FAR OUT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF ALL AGREE ON THE GENERAL IDEA OF A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT OR SFC LOW PASSAGE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE BRINGING UP SOME MODIFIED TROPICAL AIR...WITH DEWPS LIKELY INTO THE 60S...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY FOR THE SYSTEM COMING THROUGH SUNDAY. THOUGH KINEMATIC FIELDS ARE MARGINAL FOR ANY SORT OF SEVER POTENTIAL...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY LOOKS TO EXIST TO GIVE US A GOOD SHOT AT SOME THUNDERSTORMS. AS A RESULT...HAVE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CHANCE POPS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE THUNDER WORDING MORE THAN WARRANTED IN THE FORECAST THIS TIME AROUND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 THE BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL MN WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS IT ENTERS WEST CENTRAL WI THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW-END VFR CATEGORY. THE MAIN SITE TO EXPERIENCE NOTABLE REDUCTIONS TO IFR WILL BE KAXN...UNTIL MID AFTERNOON WHEN RUC 0.5KM AGL CONDENSATIONAL PRESSURE DEFICITS INDICATE IMPROVEMENT. BY 00Z...ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR WITH ONLY FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 10KFT. WINDS WILL BE NNW AROUND 10-12KTS TODAY...THEN BECOME LIGHT NNE THIS EVE INTO WEDNESDAY. KMSP... MAIN WINDOW FOR SHOWERS IS BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z...WITH A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FIELD DURING THAT TIME AS WELL. CIGS AROUND 5KFT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING THIS EVE. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED NIGHT...VFR. WINDS ENE 5-10 KTS. THU...VFR. WINDS E 5-10 KTS. FRI...VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WINDS S 10 KTS. SAT...VFR. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RAH LONG TERM...MPG AVIATION...LS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1147 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS BASICALLY ON TRACK. HOWEVER WARMING IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA HAS BEEN SLOW TO OCCUR...AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND WIND SHIFT COMBINED WITH INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD HIGHS THERE IN THE 60S RATHER THAN LOWER 70S. SO THAT WAS THE ONLY TWEAK TO THE FORECAST...WITH THE REST OF THE CWA SEEING 70S LATER TODAY. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 LATEST MSAS THIS MORNING WAS SHOWING A RELATIVELY WEAK THERMAL BNDRY EXTENDING FROM N-CNTRL ND INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE PUSHING TO THE SE. HIRES HRRR PUTS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BNDRY MOVING INTO THE NRN CWA IN A MATTER OF HOURS THE THRU THE REST OF THE CWA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. GIVEN WEAK CAA DECENT MIXING...SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH LOW 70S THIS AFTN...AND FOR WEDNESDAY MET/MAV ARE SIMILAR WITH LOW 70S. ON THURSDAY...WITH INCREASING 1000-500MB THKNS BUILDING IN...PREFER WARMER MAV VALUES WITH MID/UPPER 70S. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...SMALL POPS IN PLACE OVER THE NRN CWA WHEN ANOTHER WEAK SFC BNDRY MOVES IN. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 GFS/ECM SHOWING POSSIBLE PCPN THRU THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED PDS. POST-FRONTAL PCPN ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DISSIPATES ON FRIDAY AS SFC BNDRY PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH. LLVL MOISTURE RETURN/STOUT 305K UPGLIDE DRIVING PCPN CHANCES THEN SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...INCREASING MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO CNTRL PLAINS. BNDRY MOVES SOUTH OF THE CWA ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING 10 TO 20KT WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 10KT AFTER 00Z. WILL SEE VFR CIGS BETWEEN FL040 AND FL060 MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH FOR A TIME FROM NEAR 20Z THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS COULD AFFECT KOFK AS WELL. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DERGAN SHORT TERM...DEE LONG TERM...DEE AVIATION...DERGAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1232 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1230 PM TUESDAY...HOURLY TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE SLOW TO RISE GIVEN THIS MORNING`S CIRRUS CLOUD COVER BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY NOW THAT NEAR-FULL SUNSHINE IS DEVELOPING. DISCUSSION FROM 945 AM FOLLOWS --> VERY FEW CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. AN EXPANSIVE FAN OF CIRRUS CLOUDS EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA...GEORGIA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ARE THE RESULT OF BLOWOFF FROM AN MCS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THESE TRANSLUCENT TO NEARLY OPAQUE CLOUDS ARE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT OVER 100 KNOTS AND SHOULD LARGELY BE OFFSHORE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE TRANSITORY HOWEVER AS A NEW BATCH OF CLOUDS BETWEEN 15000-25000 FEET WILL ARRIVE DURING THE EVENING AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO OUR HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS TODAY...STILL ANTICIPATED TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR MOST AREAS. THAT`S NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL! DISCUSSION FROM 600 AM FOLLOWS... HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WERE WARMING AND THINNING THIS MORNING. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL SKIRT BY TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND CENTRAL GULF COASTAL STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY STREAKING OUT AHEAD OF THE WAVE AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE INTO THIS EVE WILL SLOWLY BE DISLODGED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WHICH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT AS IT TURNS NORTHEAST. COOL NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS MORNING WILL VEER TO A MORE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB FROM LESS THAN A HALF INCH TODAY TO AROUND 1 INCH LATE TONIGHT. CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS WILL BRING CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS EARLY ON...BUT THESE CLOUDS SHOULD TEND TO THIN WITH THE BULK OF THE THICK CLOUD COVER GETTING SUPPRESSED TO OUR S LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THICK CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO SURGE BACK TO THE N THIS EVE WITH CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED THROUGHOUT OVERNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND THIS EVE. HOWEVER...AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS...LASTLY IN THE LOW LEVELS... EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO BEGIN TO BREAK OUT FROM SW TO NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE HIGHEST RISK FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL BEFORE DAYBREAK WED WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL RAMP POPS UP TO LIKELY ALONG AND SW OF A LINE FROM GEORGETOWN TO KINGSTREE TO TIMMONSVILLE WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT IN POPS TO THE NE OF THIS LINE...FALLING BELOW THRESHOLD AS YOU MOVE UP ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR AREA. DUE TO THE DRYNESS OF THE COLUMN INITIALLY...DO NOT EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL EXCEED A TENTH OF AN INCH EVEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOST ZONES PRIOR TO 12Z WED. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S...WELL BELOW NORMAL. NOT AS CHILLY AS RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH UPPER 50S AT THE BEACHES. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...A WET AND COOL MID WEEK PERIOD COMING UP. GULF COAST LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AFTER REACHING THE NORTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA WED AFTN. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY WED WITH LIGHT NE FLOW..BUT A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL ACT TO SHARPEN A SW FLOW AHEAD OF IT INTO THE CAROLINAS WHILE THE SFC LOW MOVES NE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT THE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN WITH ENHANCED N-NE COOL SFC FLOW WHILE WINDS ALOFT INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENHANCING WEDGE INLAND AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED INTO WED EVE. EXPECT RAIN TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA FROM SW TO NE WITH GREATEST QPF WED AFTN. THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH WED NIGHT AS SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE UP JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SHORTWAVE PUSHING THE LOW ON A FARTHER EASTWARD TRACK UP THE SOUTHEAST WATERS ON WED AND KEEP IT WEAKER OVERALL REMAINING SLOWER WITH DEEP CLOSED LOW MOVING DOWN FROM THE UPPER MID WEST ON THURS. BUT STILL COUNTING ON A GOOD DEAL OF PCP OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS WED AFTN WITH ENHANCEMENT FROM DECENT DYNAMICS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. LIFT WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT WED AS SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY AND A DEEPER NW FLOW SETS UP ON BACK END OF LOW. EXPECT DRYING THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE COLUMN WITH WINDS BACKING AROUND TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION. SKIES MAY BRIGHTEN WITH SOME DRYING THROUGH THE MID LEVELS ON THURS BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF PCP WILL COME AS POTENT MID TO UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATER ON THURS. EXPECT TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL ON WED...AND MAY NOT MAKE IT PAST 60 IN SPOTS IN CLOUDS AND RAIN. THURS WILL RETURN TOWARD 70S IN PLACES AS CLOUDS THIN OUT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...POTENT LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRI WITH A DEEP N-NW FLOW ON THE BACK END BRINGING IN PLENTY OF DRY AIR. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS OR PCP EARLY FRI WILL DIMINISH AS COLUMN DRIES OUT. PCP WATER VALUES WILL DROP TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND EXITING LOW. HEIGHTS AS LOW AS 545 FRI MORNING WILL BEGIN TO RISE WITH AIR MASS MODIFYING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT A GENERAL WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS REACHING BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL BRING TEMPS UP AROUND 80 BY SUN AND MON. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 18Z...LOOK FOR A BROKEN CIRRUS CEILING THE AFTERNOON...DEBRIS FROM A LARGE COMPLEX SOUTH OF THE REGION. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW MAY BE REPLACE WITH A SOUTHEAST RESULTANT ALONG THE COAST. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH NO FOG EXPECTED. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. BY DAYBREAK...LOOK FOR A MID CLOUD CEILING WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ADVECTING NORTHWARD FROM A WARM FRONT. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE REGION...THE EASTERN HALF BEING THE MOST FAVORABLE. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A CONTINUING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH POTENTIAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. VFR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1230 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES NEEDED ON THIS EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE. DISCUSSION FROM 945 AM --> FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING AS LAST NIGHT`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
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1248 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 SKIES HAVE STARTED TO CLEAR OFF ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE CLOUDINESS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TEMPS HAVE BEEN A BIT SLOW TO RECOVER EVEN AS SKIES BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY...SO LOWERED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO AND THINK MOST SPOTS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 60S. UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY WAS STILL SOCKED IN WITH FOG SO EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THERE ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. AS SOON AS THAT WENT OUT THE OBS AT GFK STARTED GOING UP IN VISIBILITY. FIGURES. THE WEB CAMS AT DRAYTON AND PEMBINA ARE STILL SHOWING A LOT OF FOG...ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SLOW IMPROVEMENT OVER THE PAST HOUR. WILL HANG ONTO THE ADVISORY FOR ANOTHER HALF HOUR OR SO AND THEN CANCEL THE WHOLE THING AT ONCE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 NOW THAT IT IS DAYLIGHT THE WEB CAMS ARE MORE HELP. THEY INDICATE WIDESPREAD VERY LOW VSBY DUE TO DENSE FOG WITHIN THE VALLEY...WITH MORE PATCHY DENSE FOG TO THE WEST WITHIN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. AT ANY RATE...MOST AREAS ARE 1/4SM AND WILL CONTINUE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. THE HENDRUM-ADA WEBCAM IN SHOWING DENSE FOG...AND WILL EXTEND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO THIS AREA. THERE IS A ALSO DENSE FOG IN A SMALL AREA AROUND VALLEY CITY...BUT THIS AREA IS DETACHED FROM THE MAIN FOG AREA AND REMAINS ISOLATED. HRRR/RAP INDICATES THAT THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 9AM-10AM. UPDATE ISSUED AT 507 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 THE ZERO TO 1/4SM VSBY OBSERVATIONS ARE BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. LATEST RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE BECOMING CALM ACROSS THIS AREA (LOOKING AT 950MB-925MB WINDS)...WHICH IS LIKELY ALLOWING THE FOG TO BECOME MORE MATURE (DEVELOP MORE THAN JUST 5 FEET ABOVE THE SFC). WEB CAMS ARE BEGINNING TO INDICATE VSBY REDUCTIONS AS WELL. SINCE THE FOG SEEMS MORE WIDESPREAD NOW AND THICKER...ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA. WILL NEED TO WATCH AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...BUT THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TIME FOR FOG FORMATION ANYMORE. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE THE DENSE FOG THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA (LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SHOWERS). AUTOMATED SENSORS INDICATING 0SM-1/4SM VSBY...BUT DOT WEB CAMS INDICATE DECENT VISIBILITY. A FEW OB SITES NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER NOW FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 1/4SM AND AOA 3SM. A SHERIFF REPORT INDICATES THE FOG IS VERY SHALLOW (4-5 FEET ABOVE THE GROUND). CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE FOG BECOMES VERY DENSE RIGHT AFTER THE RAIN ENDS...BUT THIS DENSE FOG BECOMES PATCHY AFTER AN HOUR OR TWO. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS...THIS MAKES SOME SENSE WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS ABOVE THE SFC COMBINED WITH WINDS NEAR OR ABOVE 10 KNOTS JUST ABOVE THE SFC. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WEB CAMS AND OBSERVATIONS...BUT FOR NOW THINKING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOT NEEDED (WILL ISSUE NOWCASTS). THE BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS SHOWERS FROM FARGO TO BAUDETTE WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST/SOUTHEAST...EXITING THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 60S TODAY...AND INTO THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE MIN TEMPS TONIGHT CONSIDERING THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. WENT NEAR MODEL DEW POINT VALUES FOR MIN TEMPS WHICH IS 5F-10F BELOW MOST GUIDANCE. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THUR NIGHT. DRY WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY...WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ANTICIPATE A BAND OF SHOWERS THUR NIGHT. FRIDAY-MONDAY...A PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED...WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET GENERALLY MEANDERING NEAR THE US/CANADA BORDER. THE FLOW WILL BE RATHER ZONAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS CONTINUING INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AND SATURDAY LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS DO ALL INDICATE A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SAT OR SUN BRINGING MODESTLY COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION TO START NEXT WEEK. AS FAR AS PRECIP GOES...TIMING/PLACEMENT ISSUES BETWEEN THE MODELS LEAD TO LOW CONFIDENCE...WITH THE GEM/ECMWF TAKING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS S CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND...AND THE GFS DIGGING A WAVE TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THESE DIFFERENCES...IN ADDITION TO PLACEMENT OF OTHER EMBEDDED WAVES...WOULD IMPACT BOTH THE POSITION OF SFC FEATURES AND THE LOCATION OF BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT/FORCING. RIGHT NOW HAVE KEPT SOME LOW END POPS MAINLY SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND A BUILDING H5 RIDGE ALOFT... EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OVER MINNESOTA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...SO LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN OVER THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE FORENOON. DRYING AND WARMING AIRMASS OVERALL SO MORNING FOG IS NOT EXPECTED. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JR SHORT TERM...TG LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI AVIATION...GUST