Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/28/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
936 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015
.DISCUSSION...
...HIGH RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...LOCALLY STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
TONIGHT-TUE...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE
ATLANTIC WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING TO THE NORTH SWINGING WINDS
AROUND TO EASTERLY BY MORNING. CUT OFF LOW OVER TEXAS WILL MOVE
EASTWARD AND THE ASSOCIATED BROAD SURFACE LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF
WILL SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL/EAST GULF THROUGH LATE TUE.
THE MAIN ITEM IN THE SHORT TERM IS AN MCS OVER THE EASTERN GULF
WHICH HAS BEEN PROPAGATING SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENING. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH MODEL SHOWS THIS CONTINUING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT AN AREA OF DEBRIS RAIN TO AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTH
HALF OF THE AREA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD ALSO BRING WEAK LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...SO WE COULD ALSO SEE SHOWERS POPPING UP. LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION THOUGH. HAVE GONE
WITH 50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES IN THE NORTH...TAPERING DOWN TO 30
PERCENT IN THE SOUTH.
ON TUE...THE NEXT MCS IS SHOWN IN THE NORTHEAST GULF BY SUNRISE...SO
EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA TO START OUT THE DAY.
THIS CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG/JUST NORTH OF NORTHWARD RETREATING
WARM FRONT...SO EXPECT THAT SOME STORMS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO HOLD
TOGETHER SOMEWHAT AND SPREAD INLAND ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HALF IN THE
MORNING HOURS. THIS IS DEPICTED BY THE HRRR MODEL...BUT THE 18Z GFS
SHOWS THE MCS AND HEAVIER PRECIP AMOUNTS ARRIVING IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE TIMING WILL BE KEY TO WHETHER THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER AND
BRING A CHANCE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
IN ANY EVENT...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGH TUE WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP
HOLDING DOWN MAX TEMPS AGAIN IN THE NORTH AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA TOO.
&&
.AVIATION... SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY
KISM-KMCO-KTIX NORTHWARD DUE TO WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLING INTO
THE REGION. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES IN THESE
LOCATIONS FROM DECAYING CONVECTION IN EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
LATEST HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS THAT HEAVIER PRECIP MAY START TO SPREAD
ACROSS THAT AREA TOWARDS SUNRISE IN ASSOCIATION WITH NEXT CLUSTER OF
CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY VFR
OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OCCURRING.
ON TUE...HIGH RAIN CHANCES ARE INDICATED AREAWIDE WITH OCCASIONAL
MVFR AND LOCAL IFR IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT-TUE...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLING SOUTH OVER THE ATLANTIC
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT TO NORTHERLY AND THEN VEER QUICKLY TO EAST
ON TUE. SPEEDS LOOK MAY BE 10-15 KNOTS FOR A TIME TONIGHT THEN
DECREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS AS THE BOUNDARY WEAKENS OVER THE WATERS.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES TO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF. SPEEDS ARE FORECAST 15-20 KNOTS
LATE IN THE DAY. ALSO EXPECT A HIGH CHANCE FOR RAINFALL AND A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
FORECASTS...LASCODY
IMPACT WX...VOLKMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
153 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN MOVES IN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF THE NC/SC BORDER
TONIGHT. OBSERVATIONS SHOW NORTHEASTERLY WINDS NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHICH IS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO CONTINUE BEHIND THE QLCS DEPARTING OFF THE COAST. THE
HIGHEST MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
COUNTIES. MESOANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY
REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LIFTED
INDICES AS LOW AS -4/-5 IN THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF THE FA. EXPECT
THIS AREA TO SEE A MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE ACTIVITY FAIRLY
WELL AND SHOWS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY DEPARTING THE FORECAST AREA BY
06Z SO HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN OVERNIGHT. OBSERVATIONS SHOW LOW
VISIBILITIES IN LANCASTER AND CHESTERFIELD COUNTIES CLOSE TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL
SOME OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN MILD...ONLY FALLING INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY WITH THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS LIKELY TO BE MORE FAVORED SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW
SINKS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS VA/NC AND OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY EVENING.
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND COLD 500 MB TEMPS NOTED ON
SUNDAY BUT MOISTURE MAY BE LACKING TO SUPPORT MUCH CONVECTION SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A WARM DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE THE EXTREME NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE COOLER BEHIND THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
PATTERN NEXT WEEK. ON MON/TUE THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST AND YET ANOTHER SLOW
MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW EJECTING EASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES. EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH A
PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN
TO OPEN AND DRIFT EASTWARD EVENTUALLY PHASING WITH NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO OUR AREA TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE LATEST
GFS RUN AND THE PREVIOUS ECMWF FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD.
THE PREVIOUS ECMWF SHOWS SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. THE LATEST
GFS SHOWS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BUT ALSO SHOWS ANOTHER CUT-OFF UPPER LOW FORMING OVER
THE EASTERN GULF COAST. THIS FEATURE COULD SPREAD PRECIPITATION
BACK INTO SC BY LATE SATURDAY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DRY AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AT OR
JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EVENING CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA AND DRIER AIR
ALOFT IS MOVING IN. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NC/VA MOUNTAINS AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS NC
THROUGH THE DAY. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD LIFR
STRATUS/FOG ON THE NORTHSIDE OF A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS. THIS FRONT AND RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT BUT THERE HAVE BEEN SIGNS
OF POCKETS OF LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING DUE TO NOCTURNAL COOLING AND
MOS GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS IMPACTING THE
TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE IFR CIGS DEVELOPING BUT WILL
CARRY A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS 08Z-12Z. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AROUND
35 KNOTS SHOULD PREVENT/LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT ALTHOUGH IT CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL
ALLOW STRONG MIXING TO OCCUR DURING THE DAY TODAY AND EXPECT
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS.
STRONG INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON BUT LIMITED MOISTURE PRECLUDES
ANY MENTION OF TSRA IN THIS FORECAST THOUGH THERE IS REASON TO
BELIEVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITH DIURNAL
HEATING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
326 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IT SEEMS THE BEST
WAY TO DESCRIBE TODAY`S WEATHER IS MESSY. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
SPLIT AS IT IS MOVING EAST. DRIER AIR IS ALREADY WORKING INTO THE
WESTERN FRINGE OF OUR FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...A PRETTY
PERSISTENT BAND OF RAIN AND SNOW EXTENDS FROM AROUND CHALLIS TO
POCATELLO TO NEAR MALAD. AT THE SAME TIME...RAIN AND SNOW IS
INCREASING TO THE EAST OF THE BAND. SNOW IS FALLING DOWN TO
6000-6500FT. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME OF THE HIGHER PASSES...LIKE
WE`VE ALREADY SEEN AT WILLOW CREEK SUMMIT...GETTING SNOW AT TIMES.
HOWEVER...THE IMPACTS FOR MOST OF THEM WILL BE MINIMAL EXCEPT FOR
WILLOW CREEK AND HEADING OVER TETON PASS. THOSE TWO PASSES WILL
EVENTUALLY SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING. AS THE DAY
WEARS ON...WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS WITH
THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS WILL BOUNCE BACK TO
6500-7500FT BY AFTERNOON. IT DOES APPEAR THAT WE WILL SEE SOME
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
SNAKE PLAIN. THE GFS AND THE HRRR ARE ACTUALLY TRYING TO DEPICT
THE POTENTIAL FOR A CONVERGENCE BAND...POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS
CRATERS TO AROUND FORT HALL. THAT IS SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN TWO
SEPARATE LOCATIONS TODAY. THE FIRST WILL BE ACROSS THE UPPER PLAIN
AND HIGHLANDS AS NORTHERLY WINDS KICK IN. THE MAGIC VALLEY AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGHLANDS IS THE OTHER...AND WILL LIKELY SEE THE
STRONGEST WINDS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 MPH ARE FORECAST WITH
30-35 MPH IN ISOLATED SPOTS. THIS IS TOO LOW FOR A WIND
ADVISORY...BUT IF ENOUGH PLOWING IS ONGOING THERE COULD BE SOME
BLOWING DUST IN AREAS THAT SAW LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE DRIER AND MUCH WARMER WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST. BY TUESDAY...HIGHS WILL BE WELL
INTO THE 70S FOR THE VALLEYS AND 50S/60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. KEYES
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND A
STRONG UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE PAC NW BY WED MORN. THE TROF THEN
PASSES THRU ID ON THU. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL MTNS WED
AFTN AS THE INCREASING SW FLOW INTERACTS WITH THE TERRAIN. PRECIP
INCREASES IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND INTO THE UPPER
SNAKE HIGHLANDS WED NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROF APPROACHES. BY THU...A
COLD FRONT PASSES THRU PUSHING MOST OF THE PRECIP OUT OF THE AREA
EXCEPT FOR LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. STRONG WEST
TO SW WINDS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS ON THU. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE
SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO PRECIP IS A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN
THE MOSTLY DRY GFS. NOW THE PICTURE GETS MUDDY. THE GFS DEVELOPS A
BROAD RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW ON FRI...WHILE THE ECMWF DOES JUST THE
OPPOSITE WITH A BROAD TROF. THE GFS MAINTAINS A DRY FCST THRU SUN
WITH A DOMINANT RIDGE...WHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER
WA. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS A WET SUN AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS IS
DRY. WILL CARRY LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS SUN
AND SUN NIGHT AND LEAVE THE REST OF THE FCST AREA DRY UNTIL THE
PICTURE BECOMES CLEARER. HEDGES
&&
.AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORN...WITH
IMPROVING CIGS BY AFTN. SW WINDS WILL BR RATHER STRONG TODAY ACROSS
THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN BY EVE. HEDGES
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1045 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION WITH A SFC RIDGE AXIS
JUST TO THE WEST. NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY, GETTING A LITTLE GUSTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LITTLE BIT
OF MIXING. MODELS HINTING AT A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE BTWN
5000-8000 FT OR SO. CU RULE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG UNDER THE
RIDGE AND MIXING MAY INHIBIT A LOT OF CU...BUT STILL POSSIBLE TO
SEE A FEW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE QUIET, AND NO
SIGNIFICANT UPDATES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WORK THEIR WAY SOUTH THROUGH
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL IL EARLY THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR
ADVECTS FROM THE NORTHEAST. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER
IN SOUTHEAST IL FROM DAYBREAK UNTIL MID-MORNING. PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MIXING IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING CLOSE TO 20 MPH
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
BY AFTERNOON...HIGHS TODAY WILL MAINLY BE AROUND 60 DEGREES DUE
TO THE DEEP LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER ON TAP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MUCH OF THE
WEEK. PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW TO KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY UNTIL WE
FINALLY GET NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF CLOSING OFF OVER WESTERN
ARIZONA...AND THIS WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALL OF THE MODELS KEEP THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE TRACKING ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER...AND AS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED, A SMALL
CLOSED LOW WILL PINCH OFF IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WAVE. THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE THIS SMALL LOW DROPPING ACROSS
MINNESOTA AND IOWA TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE TAIL END OF THE NAM
BRINGS THIS INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND THE GFS PROGRESSES THE WAVE
WELL EAST BEFORE THE LOW CAN FORM. NET RESULT OF ALL OF THIS IS FOR
DRY CONDITIONS MID WEEK.
AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEK...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO MANITOBA...WHILE GENERAL BROAD TROUGHING
CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THIS RIDGE FLATTENS BY FRIDAY AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM BECOMES MORE ACTIVE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE
SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY EVENING...AS THE GFS BRINGS A STRONGER
UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF DOES HINT AT POTENTIAL MCS
ACTIVITY AS WELL. WITH THE MORE DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS...HAVE KEPT THE
LATE WEEKEND FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
THE BACK EDGE OF MVFR/IFR CLOUDS IS JUST SOUTH OF I-70 AS OF
1130Z. A DEEP NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AIR INTO CENTRAL IL TODAY AND PUSH THE LOW
CLOUDS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION. HAVE SEEN MVFR VISIBILITY
JUST DEVELOP IN EAST CENTRAL IL...SO WILL CONTINUE THIS IN THE TAF
FOR KCMI UNTIL 14Z WHEN INCREASING WIND SPEEDS WILL MIX OUT THE
LIGHT FOG.
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
RESULT IN A TREND TOWARD SOMEWHAT GUSTY WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT
RANGE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN ALL OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN IL. THE RAP AND NAM MODELS BOTH INDICATE THAT THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CUMULUS LATER
THIS MORNING AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE LOWER LEVELS WILL GO THROUGH THE TYPICAL EARLY EVENING
DECOUPLING WITH A CLEAR SKY AND VERY LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT. AM NOT
EXPECTING ANY FOG AT THIS POINT SINCE THE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP DRY OUT THE LOWEST LAYERS AND
SURFACE.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
638 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WORK THEIR WAY SOUTH THROUGH
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL IL EARLY THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR
ADVECTS FROM THE NORTHEAST. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER
IN SOUTHEAST IL FROM DAYBREAK UNTIL MID-MORNING. PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MIXING IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING CLOSE TO 20 MPH
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
BY AFTERNOON...HIGHS TODAY WILL MAINLY BE AROUND 60 DEGREES DUE
TO THE DEEP LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER ON TAP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MUCH OF THE
WEEK. PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW TO KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY UNTIL WE
FINALLY GET NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF CLOSING OFF OVER WESTERN
ARIZONA...AND THIS WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALL OF THE MODELS KEEP THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE TRACKING ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER...AND AS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED, A SMALL
CLOSED LOW WILL PINCH OFF IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WAVE. THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE THIS SMALL LOW DROPPING ACROSS
MINNESOTA AND IOWA TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE TAIL END OF THE NAM
BRINGS THIS INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND THE GFS PROGRESSES THE WAVE
WELL EAST BEFORE THE LOW CAN FORM. NET RESULT OF ALL OF THIS IS FOR
DRY CONDITIONS MID WEEK.
AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEK...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO MANITOBA...WHILE GENERAL BROAD TROUGHING
CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THIS RIDGE FLATTENS BY FRIDAY AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM BECOMES MORE ACTIVE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE
SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY EVENING...AS THE GFS BRINGS A STRONGER
UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF DOES HINT AT POTENTIAL MCS
ACTIVITY AS WELL. WITH THE MORE DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS...HAVE KEPT THE
LATE WEEKEND FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
THE BACK EDGE OF MVFR/IFR CLOUDS IS JUST SOUTH OF I-70 AS OF
1130Z. A DEEP NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AIR INTO CENTRAL IL TODAY AND PUSH THE LOW
CLOUDS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION. HAVE SEEN MVFR VISIBILITY
JUST DEVELOP IN EAST CENTRAL IL...SO WILL CONTINUE THIS IN THE TAF
FOR KCMI UNTIL 14Z WHEN INCREASING WIND SPEEDS WILL MIX OUT THE
LIGHT FOG.
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
RESULT IN A TREND TOWARD SOMEWHAT GUSTY WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT
RANGE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN ALL OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN IL. THE RAP AND NAM MODELS BOTH INDICATE THAT THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CUMULUS LATER
THIS MORNING AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE LOWER LEVELS WILL GO THROUGH THE TYPICAL EARLY EVENING
DECOUPLING WITH A CLEAR SKY AND VERY LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT. AM NOT
EXPECTING ANY FOG AT THIS POINT SINCE THE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP DRY OUT THE LOWEST LAYERS AND
SURFACE.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
525 PM MDT MON APR 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM MDT MON APR 27 2015
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE SCALE CLOSED UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER TX PANHANDLE WITH MID LEVEL VORTICITY ROTATING
THROUGH OK/SOUTHER KS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO
BUILD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR
CWA..ALONG WITH FALLING TDS.
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...RADAR SHOWS BULK OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIP ALONG KS/OK BORDER TRANSITING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...THOUGH
THERE ARE SOME LIGHT RETURNS ROTATING NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
PART OF OUR CWA. BASED ON INCREASING TD DEPRESSION OVER THE
CWA...AND AXIS OF FORCING/BETTER MOISTURE WELL SOUTH...ANY OF THESE
LIGHT RETURNS WOULD LIKELY BE VIRGA AT MOST THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR WITH BUILDING
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. GOOD RADIATION CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
LOCATIONS IN OUR CWA TO REACH FREEZING (POSSIBLY LOWER)
TONIGHT...THOUGH WITH AN INCREASE IN TD VALUES ADVERTISED FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE WE MAY NOT FALL AS MUCH. WET GROUND CONDITIONS COULD
ALSO KEEP TD VALUES FROM DROPPING AS MUCH AS ADVERTISED WHICH SEEMS
TO ALREADY BE THE CASE THIS AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY...H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST AND TEMPS ALOFT WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE...AND BETTER DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS IN
THE 60S/NEAR 70 FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. THERE IS STILL A SECONDARY H3
JET PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND A LIGHT PRECIP
SIGNAL WITH SOME GUIDANCE IN OUR NORTH. I STILL CANT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SPRINKLE IN OUR NORTHEAST WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AS
MID LEVEL VORT MAX PASSES TO THE NORTH AND COLD POOL DEVELOPS...BUT
MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. IN THE END THIS
MAY JUST BE VIRGA AND LITTLE ELSE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT MON APR 27 2015
GOING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...H5/H7 RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ENTIRE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS THRU MIDWEEK. MODELS
TREND THIS RIDGE TO FLATTEN... AND ALLOW FOR ZONAL FLOW FOR THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK ON INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS TO ENSUE INTO THURSDAY...BUT WITH RIDGE
FLATTENING ALLOWING ZONAL FLOW...THE AREA WILL SEE A SEVERAL 700MB
SHORTWAVES WORKING OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS REGION. EACH
SUBSEQUENT SYSTEM WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR RW/TRW...WITH BEST
CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AT THE END OF THE WEEK. SURFACE LEE-
SIDE TROUGHS WILL WORK OFF THE FRONT RANGE WITH EACH
SYSTEM...PROVIDING ENHANCEMENT FOR TRW TO FORM...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HRS. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED WILL RANGE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR BOTH HIGH/LOWS. 850 TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR
HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S...ON UP TO 80F IN SPOTS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...WITH SOME L50S
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL/COULD BE TEMPERED SOME BY THE
EXTENT OF CLOUDS FROM EXPECTED PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 523 PM MDT MON APR 27 2015
VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. UPPER
LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY WITH
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES IN ITS WAKE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...024
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1231 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1231 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
UPDATE ISSUED TO REDUCE HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA BASED ON
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER THRU THE DAY THUS FAR. AS A RESULT...ALL
AREAS HAVE SEEN A COUPLE DEGREES DROP BASED OFF OF LATEST OBS
TREND IN PAST SEVERAL HRS. REST OF FORECAST UNCHANGED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE GRADIENT OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INTO MONDAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY/MONDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING
THE FLOW HAS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF COUNTRY WITH EXPECTED SOUTHERN CUTOFF LOW NOW
STARTING TO MOVE INTO ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO. NATURE OF FLOW WHICH IN
SOME RESPECTS IS RETROGRESSING A LITTLE WOULD INDICATE THE
PATTERN IS GOING TO BE SLOW TO CHANGE. COLD FRONT HAS MOVED
THROUGH WITH UPSLOPE WINDS AND STRATUS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS HANDLED THIS WELL THE GFS THE WORST AND TOO
STRONG. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS WERE HAVING A LITTLE TROUBLE WITH THE
DEVELOPING WESTERN TROUGH. THEY TENDED TO BE TOO DEEP WITH THE NAM
THE WORST. OUTSIDE OF THIS THE NAM WAS NOT DOING TOO BAD. OVERALL
THE GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND UKMET. THE
CANADIAN WERE DOING THE WORST. MODELS HAD SURFACE LOW TO OUR
SOUTHWEST TOO FAR NORTH. THE RUC AND ECMWF WERE DOING THE BEST. THE
MODELS WERE DOING WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH THE
GFS...CANADIAN...SREF AND NAM DOING THE BEST.
TODAY/TONIGHT...MAJORITY OF CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING STAYED
MOSTLY TO THE WEST. UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS TO THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE WEST NOT PAINTING/SUPPORTING A WET FORECAST WITH A
VERY DEEP DRY LAYER AND WHAT MOISTURE THERE IS AT 700 MB AT ITS
LOWEST. IT LOOKS LIKE A LOT OF DRY AIR GETS PULLED INTO THE AREA
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
SUPPORTS A RATHER FAR SOUTH SOLUTION OF THE EVENTUAL UPPER LOW
WITH THE LARGEST HEIGHT FALLS OVER ARIZONA.
NEW MODEL SUITE SUPPORTS WHAT THE ANALYSIS IS SHOWING. MAIN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION HAS STAYED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA ALL
NIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND
FOG IN THE SATURATED LOW LEVELS. DYNAMICS TO OUR WEST BEGINS TO
AFFECT MOST OF THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY BEFORE SOME DRYING ALOFT OCCUR AS
THE LIFT MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA
AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...SHOULD HAVE A WIDE VARIETY OF WEATHER
THIS MORNING.
AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD
PERSIST DURING THE MORNING. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT WITH ELEVATED CAPE AND FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES IN PLACE.
WILL BE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE
DAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE FAR WEST AND
SOUTHWEST WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DURING THIS
TIME. CLOUD COVER SHOULD STAY THICK MOST OF THE DAY WITH MAYBE
SOME CLEARING IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION AS A LITTLE DRIER AIR MOVES
IN TO THERE. KEPT THE COOLER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE WITH COOLEST
READINGS IN THE FAR WEST WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY NEED NOT GET OUT
OF THE 40S.
SOUTHERN CUTOFF LOW GETS ORGANIZED AND IN A DECENT POSITION TO GIVE
THE AREA SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST THIRD TO HALF. THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO OCCUR FROM EARLY EVENING TO NEAR
09Z AS THE BEST/DEEPEST MOISTURE GETS IN PLACE. AFTER THAT THE
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION STARTS ITS GRADUAL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ITS SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST AS THE EXITING
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY. ONCE AGAIN THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WILL
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION. CLEARING WILL ALSO
BEGIN WITH MOST OF THE NORTH HALF GETTING A LOT OF SUNSHINE BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY. COULD BE QUITE A GRADIENT WITH THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH THE NORTH THE WARMEST AS IT SEES THE MOST SUN.
LINGERING SPOTTY PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY LATE IN THE EVENING.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST IT CLEARS...TEMPERATURES COULD GET QUITE
CHILLY WITH A VERY LIGHT WIND FIELD IN PLACE.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AND NORTHERLY FLOW MOVE INTO
THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DECENT AMOUNT
OF SUN. ONE THING THAT COULD SPOIL THAT WILL BE A LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT THAT MOVES IN AND SPREADS SOME CLOUDS INTO THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA. ECMWF IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT QPF.
HOWEVER...THERE IS NO INSTABILITY AND A RATHER DEEP DRY LAYER. SO
IT SHOULD STAY DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM DUE TO SUNSHINE BUT
WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE UNFAVORABLE SURFACE WIND FIELD.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE RIDGE PUSHES
FURTHER EAST. PRECIP CHANCES MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE PAC NW TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES AND SWRLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP IS KEPT THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHORTWAVES POSSIBLY
GENERATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S. READINGS IN THE LOW 80S ARE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
FOR KGLD...THRU 12Z MONDAY CEILINGS WILL RANGE FROM OVC002-007 IN
DRIZZLE AND FOG THAT DROPS VISIBILITY IN A 2-6 MILE RANGE. AFT 12Z
MONDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH OVC015 AND VCSH. WINDS ENE THRU
FORECAST PERIOD 10-20KTS...HIGHEST BEFORE 00Z MONDAY...AND AFTER
12Z MONDAY.
FOR KMCK...SLOW INCREASING TREND IN CEILINGS HEIGHTS THRU FORECAST
PERIOD. LOOKING FOR MVFR/IFR MIX THRU 03Z...THEN TRENDING TO MVFR
BKN030 THRU 09Z...THEN VFR AT BKN035. SOME DRIZZLE THROUGH 22Z
WITH 5SM IN FOG. WINDS ENE 10-20KTS...MOST GUSTS NEAR 20KTS
THROUGH 22Z THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...JN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1130 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
UPDATE ISSUED TO DECREASE PRECIP COVERAGE THRU REST OF MORNING HRS
BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE MENTION OF
HIGHER POPS/THUNDER FROM THE ENTIRE CWA FORECAST REST OF MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MORNING HRS HERE IN THE CWA HAVE
BEEN PERSISTENT FOG AND MAINLY DRIZZLE. MOST APPRECIABLE RETURNS
HAVE BEEN FOCUSED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE CWA HAVE AIDED IN UPSLOPE CONDITIONS
KEEPING PRECIP FOCUSED WEST OF OUR CWA BORDERS. AM EXPECTING AN
INCREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THOUGH AS UPPER LOW PIVOTS OUT
ONTO THE PLAINS. HAVE SHOWN INCREASING POPS TOWARDS THAT TIMEFRAME
AS WELL AS A FEW HOURS WHERE THUNDER IS POSSIBLE WITH INCREASED
INSTABILITY WITH LOW PROXIMITY. REST OF FORECAST FOR TEMPS/WINDS
REMAIN ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE GRADIENT OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INTO MONDAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY/MONDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING
THE FLOW HAS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF COUNTRY WITH EXPECTED SOUTHERN CUTOFF LOW NOW
STARTING TO MOVE INTO ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO. NATURE OF FLOW WHICH IN
SOME RESPECTS IS RETROGRESSING A LITTLE WOULD INDICATE THE
PATTERN IS GOING TO BE SLOW TO CHANGE. COLD FRONT HAS MOVED
THROUGH WITH UPSLOPE WINDS AND STRATUS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS HANDLED THIS WELL THE GFS THE WORST AND TOO
STRONG. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS WERE HAVING A LITTLE TROUBLE WITH THE
DEVELOPING WESTERN TROUGH. THEY TENDED TO BE TOO DEEP WITH THE NAM
THE WORST. OUTSIDE OF THIS THE NAM WAS NOT DOING TOO BAD. OVERALL
THE GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND UKMET. THE
CANADIAN WERE DOING THE WORST. MODELS HAD SURFACE LOW TO OUR
SOUTHWEST TOO FAR NORTH. THE RUC AND ECMWF WERE DOING THE BEST. THE
MODELS WERE DOING WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH THE
GFS...CANADIAN...SREF AND NAM DOING THE BEST.
TODAY/TONIGHT...MAJORITY OF CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING STAYED
MOSTLY TO THE WEST. UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS TO THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE WEST NOT PAINTING/SUPPORTING A WET FORECAST WITH A
VERY DEEP DRY LAYER AND WHAT MOISTURE THERE IS AT 700 MB AT ITS
LOWEST. IT LOOKS LIKE A LOT OF DRY AIR GETS PULLED INTO THE AREA
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
SUPPORTS A RATHER FAR SOUTH SOLUTION OF THE EVENTUAL UPPER LOW
WITH THE LARGEST HEIGHT FALLS OVER ARIZONA.
NEW MODEL SUITE SUPPORTS WHAT THE ANALYSIS IS SHOWING. MAIN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION HAS STAYED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA ALL
NIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND
FOG IN THE SATURATED LOW LEVELS. DYNAMICS TO OUR WEST BEGINS TO
AFFECT MOST OF THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY BEFORE SOME DRYING ALOFT OCCUR AS
THE LIFT MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA
AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...SHOULD HAVE A WIDE VARIETY OF WEATHER
THIS MORNING.
AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD
PERSIST DURING THE MORNING. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT WITH ELEVATED CAPE AND FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES IN PLACE.
WILL BE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE
DAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE FAR WEST AND
SOUTHWEST WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DURING THIS
TIME. CLOUD COVER SHOULD STAY THICK MOST OF THE DAY WITH MAYBE
SOME CLEARING IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION AS A LITTLE DRIER AIR MOVES
IN TO THERE. KEPT THE COOLER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE WITH COOLEST
READINGS IN THE FAR WEST WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY NEED NOT GET OUT
OF THE 40S.
SOUTHERN CUTOFF LOW GETS ORGANIZED AND IN A DECENT POSITION TO GIVE
THE AREA SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST THIRD TO HALF. THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO OCCUR FROM EARLY EVENING TO NEAR
09Z AS THE BEST/DEEPEST MOISTURE GETS IN PLACE. AFTER THAT THE
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION STARTS ITS GRADUAL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ITS SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST AS THE EXITING
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY. ONCE AGAIN THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WILL
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION. CLEARING WILL ALSO
BEGIN WITH MOST OF THE NORTH HALF GETTING A LOT OF SUNSHINE BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY. COULD BE QUITE A GRADIENT WITH THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH THE NORTH THE WARMEST AS IT SEES THE MOST SUN.
LINGERING SPOTTY PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY LATE IN THE EVENING.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST IT CLEARS...TEMPERATURES COULD GET QUITE
CHILLY WITH A VERY LIGHT WIND FIELD IN PLACE.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AND NORTHERLY FLOW MOVE INTO
THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DECENT AMOUNT
OF SUN. ONE THING THAT COULD SPOIL THAT WILL BE A LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT THAT MOVES IN AND SPREADS SOME CLOUDS INTO THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA. ECMWF IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT QPF.
HOWEVER...THERE IS NO INSTABILITY AND A RATHER DEEP DRY LAYER. SO
IT SHOULD STAY DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM DUE TO SUNSHINE BUT
WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE UNFAVORABLE SURFACE WIND FIELD.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE RIDGE PUSHES
FURTHER EAST. PRECIP CHANCES MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE PAC NW TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES AND SWRLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP IS KEPT THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHORTWAVES POSSIBLY
GENERATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S. READINGS IN THE LOW 80S ARE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
FOR KGLD...THRU 12Z MONDAY CEILINGS WILL RANGE FROM OVC002-007 IN
DRIZZLE AND FOG THAT DROPS VISIBILITY IN A 2-6 MILE RANGE. AFT 12Z
MONDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH OVC015 AND VCSH. WINDS ENE THRU
FORECAST PERIOD 10-20KTS...HIGHEST BEFORE 00Z MONDAY...AND AFTER
12Z MONDAY.
FOR KMCK...SLOW INCREASING TREND IN CEILINGS HEIGHTS THRU FORECAST
PERIOD. LOOKING FOR MVFR/IFR MIX THRU 03Z...THEN TRENDING TO MVFR
BKN030 THRU 09Z...THEN VFR AT BKN035. SOME DRIZZLE THROUGH 22Z
WITH 5SM IN FOG. WINDS ENE 10-20KTS...MOST GUSTS NEAR 20KTS
THROUGH 22Z THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...JN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
948 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
UPDATE ISSUED TO DECREASE PRECIP COVERAGE THRU REST OF MORNING HRS
BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE MENTION OF
HIGHER POPS/THUNDER FROM THE ENTIRE CWA FORECAST REST OF MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MORNING HRS HERE IN THE CWA HAVE
BEEN PERSISTENT FOG AND MAINLY DRIZZLE. MOST APPRECIABLE RETURNS
HAVE BEEN FOCUSED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE CWA HAVE AIDED IN UPSLOPE CONDITIONS
KEEPING PRECIP FOCUSED WEST OF OUR CWA BORDERS. AM EXPECTING AN
INCREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THOUGH AS UPPER LOW PIVOTS OUT
ONTO THE PLAINS. HAVE SHOWN INCREASING POPS TOWARDS THAT TIMEFRAME
AS WELL AS A FEW HOURS WHERE THUNDER IS POSSIBLE WITH INCREASED
INSTABILITY WITH LOW PROXIMITY. REST OF FORECAST FOR TEMPS/WINDS
REMAIN ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE GRADIENT OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INTO MONDAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY/MONDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING
THE FLOW HAS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF COUNTRY WITH EXPECTED SOUTHERN CUTOFF LOW NOW
STARTING TO MOVE INTO ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO. NATURE OF FLOW WHICH IN
SOME RESPECTS IS RETROGRESSING A LITTLE WOULD INDICATE THE
PATTERN IS GOING TO BE SLOW TO CHANGE. COLD FRONT HAS MOVED
THROUGH WITH UPSLOPE WINDS AND STRATUS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS HANDLED THIS WELL THE GFS THE WORST AND TOO
STRONG. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS WERE HAVING A LITTLE TROUBLE WITH THE
DEVELOPING WESTERN TROUGH. THEY TENDED TO BE TOO DEEP WITH THE NAM
THE WORST. OUTSIDE OF THIS THE NAM WAS NOT DOING TOO BAD. OVERALL
THE GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND UKMET. THE
CANADIAN WERE DOING THE WORST. MODELS HAD SURFACE LOW TO OUR
SOUTHWEST TOO FAR NORTH. THE RUC AND ECMWF WERE DOING THE BEST. THE
MODELS WERE DOING WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH THE
GFS...CANADIAN...SREF AND NAM DOING THE BEST.
TODAY/TONIGHT...MAJORITY OF CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING STAYED
MOSTLY TO THE WEST. UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS TO THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE WEST NOT PAINTING/SUPPORTING A WET FORECAST WITH A
VERY DEEP DRY LAYER AND WHAT MOISTURE THERE IS AT 700 MB AT ITS
LOWEST. IT LOOKS LIKE A LOT OF DRY AIR GETS PULLED INTO THE AREA
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
SUPPORTS A RATHER FAR SOUTH SOLUTION OF THE EVENTUAL UPPER LOW
WITH THE LARGEST HEIGHT FALLS OVER ARIZONA.
NEW MODEL SUITE SUPPORTS WHAT THE ANALYSIS IS SHOWING. MAIN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION HAS STAYED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA ALL
NIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND
FOG IN THE SATURATED LOW LEVELS. DYNAMICS TO OUR WEST BEGINS TO
AFFECT MOST OF THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY BEFORE SOME DRYING ALOFT OCCUR AS
THE LIFT MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA
AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...SHOULD HAVE A WIDE VARIETY OF WEATHER
THIS MORNING.
AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD
PERSIST DURING THE MORNING. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT WITH ELEVATED CAPE AND FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES IN PLACE.
WILL BE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE
DAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE FAR WEST AND
SOUTHWEST WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DURING THIS
TIME. CLOUD COVER SHOULD STAY THICK MOST OF THE DAY WITH MAYBE
SOME CLEARING IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION AS A LITTLE DRIER AIR MOVES
IN TO THERE. KEPT THE COOLER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE WITH COOLEST
READINGS IN THE FAR WEST WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY NEED NOT GET OUT
OF THE 40S.
SOUTHERN CUTOFF LOW GETS ORGANIZED AND IN A DECENT POSITION TO GIVE
THE AREA SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST THIRD TO HALF. THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO OCCUR FROM EARLY EVENING TO NEAR
09Z AS THE BEST/DEEPEST MOISTURE GETS IN PLACE. AFTER THAT THE
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION STARTS ITS GRADUAL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ITS SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST AS THE EXITING
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY. ONCE AGAIN THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WILL
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION. CLEARING WILL ALSO
BEGIN WITH MOST OF THE NORTH HALF GETTING A LOT OF SUNSHINE BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY. COULD BE QUITE A GRADIENT WITH THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH THE NORTH THE WARMEST AS IT SEES THE MOST SUN.
LINGERING SPOTTY PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY LATE IN THE EVENING.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST IT CLEARS...TEMPERATURES COULD GET QUITE
CHILLY WITH A VERY LIGHT WIND FIELD IN PLACE.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AND NORTHERLY FLOW MOVE INTO
THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DECENT AMOUNT
OF SUN. ONE THING THAT COULD SPOIL THAT WILL BE A LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT THAT MOVES IN AND SPREADS SOME CLOUDS INTO THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA. ECMWF IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT QPF.
HOWEVER...THERE IS NO INSTABILITY AND A RATHER DEEP DRY LAYER. SO
IT SHOULD STAY DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM DUE TO SUNSHINE BUT
WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE UNFAVORABLE SURFACE WIND FIELD.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE RIDGE PUSHES
FURTHER EAST. PRECIP CHANCES MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE PAC NW TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES AND SWRLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP IS KEPT THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHORTWAVES POSSIBLY
GENERATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S. READINGS IN THE LOW 80S ARE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
FOR KGLD...LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AS A RESULT...LIFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
SITE THROUGH THE MORNING. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE...LIGHT
RAIN OR FOG WILL PREVAIL ALMOST THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
FOR KMCK...LOW LEVEL AIR MASS HERE WILL DRY WITH TIME. LIFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL MID AFTERNOON WHEN MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE UNTIL 06Z. AT THAT
TIME...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
732 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 732 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
UPDATE ISSUED TO ACCT FOR LATEST OBS TREND. CURRENTLY...THE ENTIRE
TRI STATE REGION REMAINS UNDER A THICK VEIL OF LOW CLOUD...WITH
TEMPS IN THE MID 40S. AREAS OF FOG PERSIST ALONG WITH DRIZZLE...SO
PLAN ON KEEPING IN FORECAST FOR NOW AND WILL REVISIT FOR NEXT ESTF
UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE GRADIENT OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INTO MONDAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY/MONDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING
THE FLOW HAS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF COUNTRY WITH EXPECTED SOUTHERN CUTOFF LOW NOW
STARTING TO MOVE INTO ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO. NATURE OF FLOW WHICH IN
SOME RESPECTS IS RETROGRESSING A LITTLE WOULD INDICATE THE
PATTERN IS GOING TO BE SLOW TO CHANGE. COLD FRONT HAS MOVED
THROUGH WITH UPSLOPE WINDS AND STRATUS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS HANDLED THIS WELL THE GFS THE WORST AND TOO
STRONG. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS WERE HAVING A LITTLE TROUBLE WITH THE
DEVELOPING WESTERN TROUGH. THEY TENDED TO BE TOO DEEP WITH THE NAM
THE WORST. OUTSIDE OF THIS THE NAM WAS NOT DOING TOO BAD. OVERALL
THE GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND UKMET. THE
CANADIAN WERE DOING THE WORST. MODELS HAD SURFACE LOW TO OUR
SOUTHWEST TOO FAR NORTH. THE RUC AND ECMWF WERE DOING THE BEST. THE
MODELS WERE DOING WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH THE
GFS...CANADIAN...SREF AND NAM DOING THE BEST.
TODAY/TONIGHT...MAJORITY OF CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING STAYED
MOSTLY TO THE WEST. UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS TO THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE WEST NOT PAINTING/SUPPORTING A WET FORECAST WITH A
VERY DEEP DRY LAYER AND WHAT MOISTURE THERE IS AT 700 MB AT ITS
LOWEST. IT LOOKS LIKE A LOT OF DRY AIR GETS PULLED INTO THE AREA
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
SUPPORTS A RATHER FAR SOUTH SOLUTION OF THE EVENTUAL UPPER LOW
WITH THE LARGEST HEIGHT FALLS OVER ARIZONA.
NEW MODEL SUITE SUPPORTS WHAT THE ANALYSIS IS SHOWING. MAIN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION HAS STAYED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA ALL
NIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND
FOG IN THE SATURATED LOW LEVELS. DYNAMICS TO OUR WEST BEGINS TO
AFFECT MOST OF THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY BEFORE SOME DRYING ALOFT OCCUR AS
THE LIFT MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA
AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...SHOULD HAVE A WIDE VARIETY OF WEATHER
THIS MORNING.
AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD
PERSIST DURING THE MORNING. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT WITH ELEVATED CAPE AND FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES IN PLACE.
WILL BE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE
DAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE FAR WEST AND
SOUTHWEST WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DURING THIS
TIME. CLOUD COVER SHOULD STAY THICK MOST OF THE DAY WITH MAYBE
SOME CLEARING IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION AS A LITTLE DRIER AIR MOVES
IN TO THERE. KEPT THE COOLER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE WITH COOLEST
READINGS IN THE FAR WEST WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY NEED NOT GET OUT
OF THE 40S.
SOUTHERN CUTOFF LOW GETS ORGANIZED AND IN A DECENT POSITION TO GIVE
THE AREA SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST THIRD TO HALF. THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO OCCUR FROM EARLY EVENING TO NEAR
09Z AS THE BEST/DEEPEST MOISTURE GETS IN PLACE. AFTER THAT THE
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION STARTS ITS GRADUAL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ITS SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST AS THE EXITING
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY. ONCE AGAIN THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WILL
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION. CLEARING WILL ALSO
BEGIN WITH MOST OF THE NORTH HALF GETTING A LOT OF SUNSHINE BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY. COULD BE QUITE A GRADIENT WITH THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH THE NORTH THE WARMEST AS IT SEES THE MOST SUN.
LINGERING SPOTTY PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY LATE IN THE EVENING.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST IT CLEARS...TEMPERATURES COULD GET QUITE
CHILLY WITH A VERY LIGHT WIND FIELD IN PLACE.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AND NORTHERLY FLOW MOVE INTO
THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DECENT AMOUNT
OF SUN. ONE THING THAT COULD SPOIL THAT WILL BE A LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT THAT MOVES IN AND SPREADS SOME CLOUDS INTO THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA. ECMWF IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT QPF.
HOWEVER...THERE IS NO INSTABILITY AND A RATHER DEEP DRY LAYER. SO
IT SHOULD STAY DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM DUE TO SUNSHINE BUT
WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE UNFAVORABLE SURFACE WIND FIELD.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE RIDGE PUSHES
FURTHER EAST. PRECIP CHANCES MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE PAC NW TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES AND SWRLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP IS KEPT THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHORTWAVES POSSIBLY
GENERATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S. READINGS IN THE LOW 80S ARE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
FOR KGLD...LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AS A RESULT...LIFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
SITE THROUGH THE MORNING. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE...LIGHT
RAIN OR FOG WILL PREVAIL ALMOST THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
FOR KMCK...LOW LEVEL AIR MASS HERE WILL DRY WITH TIME. LIFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL MID AFTERNOON WHEN MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE UNTIL 06Z. AT THAT
TIME...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
556 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE GRADIENT OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INTO MONDAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY/MONDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING
THE FLOW HAS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF COUNTRY WITH EXPECTED SOUTHERN CUTOFF LOW NOW
STARTING TO MOVE INTO ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO. NATURE OF FLOW WHICH IN
SOME RESPECTS IS RETROGRESSING A LITTLE WOULD INDICATE THE
PATTERN IS GOING TO BE SLOW TO CHANGE. COLD FRONT HAS MOVED
THROUGH WITH UPSLOPE WINDS AND STRATUS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS HANDLED THIS WELL THE GFS THE WORST AND TOO
STRONG. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS WERE HAVING A LITTLE TROUBLE WITH THE
DEVELOPING WESTERN TROUGH. THEY TENDED TO BE TOO DEEP WITH THE NAM
THE WORST. OUTSIDE OF THIS THE NAM WAS NOT DOING TOO BAD. OVERALL
THE GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND UKMET. THE
CANADIAN WERE DOING THE WORST. MODELS HAD SURFACE LOW TO OUR
SOUTHWEST TOO FAR NORTH. THE RUC AND ECMWF WERE DOING THE BEST. THE
MODELS WERE DOING WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH THE
GFS...CANADIAN...SREF AND NAM DOING THE BEST.
TODAY/TONIGHT...MAJORITY OF CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING STAYED
MOSTLY TO THE WEST. UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS TO THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE WEST NOT PAINTING/SUPPORTING A WET FORECAST WITH A
VERY DEEP DRY LAYER AND WHAT MOISTURE THERE IS AT 700 MB AT ITS
LOWEST. IT LOOKS LIKE A LOT OF DRY AIR GETS PULLED INTO THE AREA
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
SUPPORTS A RATHER FAR SOUTH SOLUTION OF THE EVENTUAL UPPER LOW
WITH THE LARGEST HEIGHT FALLS OVER ARIZONA.
NEW MODEL SUITE SUPPORTS WHAT THE ANALYSIS IS SHOWING. MAIN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION HAS STAYED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA ALL
NIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND
FOG IN THE SATURATED LOW LEVELS. DYNAMICS TO OUR WEST BEGINS TO
AFFECT MOST OF THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY BEFORE SOME DRYING ALOFT OCCUR AS
THE LIFT MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA
AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...SHOULD HAVE A WIDE VARIETY OF WEATHER
THIS MORNING.
AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD
PERSIST DURING THE MORNING. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT WITH ELEVATED CAPE AND FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES IN PLACE.
WILL BE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE
DAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE FAR WEST AND
SOUTHWEST WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DURING THIS
TIME. CLOUD COVER SHOULD STAY THICK MOST OF THE DAY WITH MAYBE
SOME CLEARING IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION AS A LITTLE DRIER AIR MOVES
IN TO THERE. KEPT THE COOLER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE WITH COOLEST
READINGS IN THE FAR WEST WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY NEED NOT GET OUT
OF THE 40S.
SOUTHERN CUTOFF LOW GETS ORGANIZED AND IN A DECENT POSITION TO GIVE
THE AREA SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST THIRD TO HALF. THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO OCCUR FROM EARLY EVENING TO NEAR
09Z AS THE BEST/DEEPEST MOISTURE GETS IN PLACE. AFTER THAT THE
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION STARTS ITS GRADUAL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ITS SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST AS THE EXITING
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY. ONCE AGAIN THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WILL
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION. CLEARING WILL ALSO
BEGIN WITH MOST OF THE NORTH HALF GETTING A LOT OF SUNSHINE BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY. COULD BE QUITE A GRADIENT WITH THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH THE NORTH THE WARMEST AS IT SEES THE MOST SUN.
LINGERING SPOTTY PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY LATE IN THE EVENING.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST IT CLEARS...TEMPERATURES COULD GET QUITE
CHILLY WITH A VERY LIGHT WIND FIELD IN PLACE.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AND NORTHERLY FLOW MOVE INTO
THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DECENT AMOUNT
OF SUN. ONE THING THAT COULD SPOIL THAT WILL BE A LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT THAT MOVES IN AND SPREADS SOME CLOUDS INTO THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA. ECMWF IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT QPF.
HOWEVER...THERE IS NO INSTABILITY AND A RATHER DEEP DRY LAYER. SO
IT SHOULD STAY DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM DUE TO SUNSHINE BUT
WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE UNFAVORABLE SURFACE WIND FIELD.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE RIDGE PUSHES
FURTHER EAST. PRECIP CHANCES MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE PAC NW TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES AND SWRLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP IS KEPT THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHORTWAVES POSSIBLY
GENERATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S. READINGS IN THE LOW 80S ARE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
FOR KGLD...LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AS A RESULT...LIFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
SITE THROUGH THE MORNING. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE...LIGHT
RAIN OR FOG WILL PREVAIL ALMOST THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
FOR KMCK...LOW LEVEL AIR MASS HERE WILL DRY WITH TIME. LIFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL MID AFTERNOON WHEN MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE UNTIL 06Z. AT THAT
TIME...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
420 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE GRADIENT OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INTO MONDAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY/MONDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING
THE FLOW HAS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF COUNTRY WITH EXPECTED SOUTHERN CUTOFF LOW NOW
STARTING TO MOVE INTO ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO. NATURE OF FLOW WHICH IN
SOME RESPECTS IS RETROGRESSING A LITTLE WOULD INDICATE THE
PATTERN IS GOING TO BE SLOW TO CHANGE. COLD FRONT HAS MOVED
THROUGH WITH UPSLOPE WINDS AND STRATUS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS HANDLED THIS WELL THE GFS THE WORST AND TOO
STRONG. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS WERE HAVING A LITTLE TROUBLE WITH THE
DEVELOPING WESTERN TROUGH. THEY TENDED TO BE TOO DEEP WITH THE NAM
THE WORST. OUTSIDE OF THIS THE NAM WAS NOT DOING TOO BAD. OVERALL
THE GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND UKMET. THE
CANADIAN WERE DOING THE WORST. MODELS HAD SURFACE LOW TO OUR
SOUTHWEST TOO FAR NORTH. THE RUC AND ECMWF WERE DOING THE BEST. THE
MODELS WERE DOING WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH THE
GFS...CANADIAN...SREF AND NAM DOING THE BEST.
TODAY/TONIGHT...MAJORITY OF CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING STAYED
MOSTLY TO THE WEST. UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS TO THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE WEST NOT PAINTING/SUPPORTING A WET FORECAST WITH A
VERY DEEP DRY LAYER AND WHAT MOISTURE THERE IS AT 700 MB AT ITS
LOWEST. IT LOOKS LIKE A LOT OF DRY AIR GETS PULLED INTO THE AREA
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
SUPPORTS A RATHER FAR SOUTH SOLUTION OF THE EVENTUAL UPPER LOW
WITH THE LARGEST HEIGHT FALLS OVER ARIZONA.
NEW MODEL SUITE SUPPORTS WHAT THE ANALYSIS IS SHOWING. MAIN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION HAS STAYED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA ALL
NIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND
FOG IN THE SATURATED LOW LEVELS. DYNAMICS TO OUR WEST BEGINS TO
AFFECT MOST OF THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY BEFORE SOME DRYING ALOFT OCCUR AS
THE LIFT MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA
AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...SHOULD HAVE A WIDE VARIETY OF WEATHER
THIS MORNING.
AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD
PERSIST DURING THE MORNING. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT WITH ELEVATED CAPE AND FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES IN PLACE.
WILL BE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE
DAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE FAR WEST AND
SOUTHWEST WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DURING THIS
TIME. CLOUD COVER SHOULD STAY THICK MOST OF THE DAY WITH MAYBE
SOME CLEARING IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION AS A LITTLE DRIER AIR MOVES
IN TO THERE. KEPT THE COOLER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE WITH COOLEST
READINGS IN THE FAR WEST WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY NEED NOT GET OUT
OF THE 40S.
SOUTHERN CUTOFF LOW GETS ORGANIZED AND IN A DECENT POSITION TO GIVE
THE AREA SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST THIRD TO HALF. THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO OCCUR FROM EARLY EVENING TO NEAR
09Z AS THE BEST/DEEPEST MOISTURE GETS IN PLACE. AFTER THAT THE
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION STARTS ITS GRADUAL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ITS SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST AS THE EXITING
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY. ONCE AGAIN THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WILL
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION. CLEARING WILL ALSO
BEGIN WITH MOST OF THE NORTH HALF GETTING A LOT OF SUNSHINE BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY. COULD BE QUITE A GRADIENT WITH THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH THE NORTH THE WARMEST AS IT SEES THE MOST SUN.
LINGERING SPOTTY PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY LATE IN THE EVENING.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST IT CLEARS...TEMPERATURES COULD GET QUITE
CHILLY WITH A VERY LIGHT WIND FIELD IN PLACE.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AND NORTHERLY FLOW MOVE INTO
THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DECENT AMOUNT
OF SUN. ONE THING THAT COULD SPOIL THAT WILL BE A LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT THAT MOVES IN AND SPREADS SOME CLOUDS INTO THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA. ECMWF IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT QPF.
HOWEVER...THERE IS NO INSTABILITY AND A RATHER DEEP DRY LAYER. SO
IT SHOULD STAY DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM DUE TO SUNSHINE BUT
WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE UNFAVORABLE SURFACE WIND FIELD.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE RIDGE PUSHES
FURTHER EAST. PRECIP CHANCES MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE PAC NW TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES AND SWRLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP IS KEPT THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHORTWAVES POSSIBLY
GENERATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S. READINGS IN THE LOW 80S ARE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015
KGLD...IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE EAST GUSTING 15 TO 20KTS
AT TIMES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO BE IN
THE VICINITY OR OVER THE TERMINAL FROM 08Z-20Z AS VARIOUS WEATHER
DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
KMCK...IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 19Z WITH
EAST WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUSTING 15-20KTS. FROM 20Z-01Z CIGS
IMPROVE SLIGHTLY TO MVFR CATEGORY WITH CONTINUED EAST WIND GUSTING
TO 20KTS. AFTER 02Z CIGS LOOK TO RISE JUST ABOVE MVFR CATEGORY
WITH WINDS VERY SLOWLY DECREASING TOWARD 10KTS...ESPECIALLY AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
344 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE THE KEY TO CHANCES OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS TODAY. AT THIS TIME
THE DEPTH OF THIS MOIST LAYER WILL BE JUST BELOW 3000FT AGL BASED
ON THE NAM AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE DEPTH OF THIS MOIST LAYER
WILL BE SLIGHTLY DEEPER WEST OF HIGHWAY 283 THAN EAST SO GIVEN
THIS WILL FAVOR KEEPING A MENTION OF DRIZZLE GOING NEAR AND WEST
OF DODGE CITY TODAY. IN ADDITION 700MB TO 500MB LAPSE RATES ARE
FORECAST TO BE GREATER THAN 8C/KM AS A WEAK 400MB POTENTIAL
VORTICITY ANOMALY CROSSES SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS
MAY BRIEFLY ENHANCE LIFT ENOUGH FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAINSHOWERS DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO WARM
MUCH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER SO HAVE
KEPT THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND TO AROUND 10 DEGREES OR LESS.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
AFTER 00Z MONDAY ANOTHER, STRONGER, UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE
NORTH ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND APPROACH SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
GIVEN SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND IMPROVING LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
NEXT UPPER WAVE EARLY TONIGHT THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION TO OCCUR, MAINLY IN SOUTHERN KANSAS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER. CURRENTLY AM CONCERNED ABOUT HOW FAR NORTH THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE 700MB TO
500MB DEFORMATION ZONE AND THE SLIGHTLY TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW
ACROSS WEST TEXAS. GIVEN THIS TREND ALONG WITH WHERE THE BETTER
MOISTURE, INSTABILITY AND LIFT WILL BE OVERNIGHT WILL BEGIN TO
LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. FURTHER
SOUTH THE HIGHEST FOR OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
THE NAM AND THE ECMWF ARE THE SOLUTIONS WITH THE SHARPEST CUTOFF OF
PLACEMENT OF THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF COLD CONVEYOR BELT
PRECIPITATION/CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS COUNTIES FOR
MONDAY. BY COMPARISON, THE GFS IS THE FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION.
HOWEVER IN EITHER CASE, THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SUGGEST A WEDGE
OF DRY MID LEVEL AIR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE DEFORMATION AXIS,
SUGGESTING LOWERED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES, FROM AROUND SCOTT CITY TO HAYS. AS SUCH WE`VE USED A
MODEL BLEND TOWARD THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS WHICH IS WARMER ACROSS OUR
FURTHEST NORTHEAST COUNTIES, AND CONTINUED TO TREND LOWER THE POPS
ACROSS THOSE AREAS. CAPE IS BASICALLY NONEXISTENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES EARLY MONDAY, LEAVING DEFORMATION AND ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE THE MAIN MECHANISMS FOR FORCING, PRODUCING RAIN, AND COOL
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
BEYOND THE MONDAY TIMEFRAME, THE PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY BENIGN WITH
A MEAN WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES MAY WARM TO
THE 80S BY THE THURSDAY-SATURDAY TIMEFRAME AS A SOUTHWEST SURFACE
FLOW DEVELOPS. THE POLAR WESTERLIES SETUP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH A STRONG WAVE MODELED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF TO DIVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AROUND LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT COULD BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION, WHICH THE GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER THE BLEND SOLUTION DERTERMINES
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR MEASUREABLE PRECIPITATION TO BE SATURDAY
NIGHT OR SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS EARLY TONIGHT SHOWING LIFR
CEILINGS SPREADING SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. BASED ON
LOWERING CEILINGS FROM THE UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS, 00Z NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS, ALONG WITH THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR THE CEILINGS WILL
FALL INTO THE LIFR CATEGORY BY 06Z SUNDAY AND THEN REMAIN BELOW
500FT AGL THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z. CEILINGS WILL THEN GRADUALLY
IMPROVE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z. VISIBILITIES
SHOULD STAY IN THE MVFR CATEGORY BASED ON THE MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
GIVEN THAT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 56 42 48 40 / 10 60 60 30
GCK 54 43 47 38 / 20 50 60 20
EHA 56 41 46 38 / 30 90 80 30
LBL 58 45 46 40 / 40 80 80 40
HYS 55 41 59 40 / 10 20 30 20
P28 65 48 50 43 / 10 70 70 50
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
237 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
...UPDATED SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE THE KEY TO CHANCES OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS TODAY. AT THIS TIME
THE DEPTH OF THIS MOIST LAYER WILL BE JUST BELOW 3000FT AGL BASED
ON THE NAM AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE DEPTH OF THIS MOIST LAYER
WILL BE SLIGHTLY DEEPER WEST OF HIGHWAY 283 THAN EAST SO GIVEN
THIS WILL FAVOR KEEPING A MENTION OF DRIZZLE GOING NEAR AND WEST
OF DODGE CITY TODAY. IN ADDITION 700MB TO 500MB LAPSE RATES ARE
FORECAST TO BE GREATER THAN 8C/KM AS A WEAK 400MB POTENTIAL
VORTICITY ANOMALY CROSSES SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS
MAY BRIEFLY ENHANCE LIFT ENOUGH FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAINSHOWERS DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO WARM
MUCH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER SO HAVE
KEPT THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND TO AROUND 10 DEGREES OR LESS.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
AFTER 00Z MONDAY ANOTHER, STRONGER, UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE
NORTH ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND APPROACH SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
GIVEN SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND IMPROVING LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
NEXT UPPER WAVE EARLY TONIGHT THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION TO OCCUR, MAINLY IN SOUTHERN KANSAS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER. CURRENTLY AM CONCERNED ABOUT HOW FAR NORTH THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE 700MB TO
500MB DEFORMATION ZONE AND THE SLIGHTLY TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW
ACROSS WEST TEXAS. GIVEN THIS TREND ALONG WITH WHERE THE BETTER
MOISTURE, INSTABILITY AND LIFT WILL BE OVERNIGHT WILL BEGIN TO
LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. FURTHER
SOUTH THE HIGHEST FOR OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SPREADING FROM FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS INTO
MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR OR SOUTH OF HAYS. WILL RANGE
RAIN CHANCES FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT AT HAYS TO 60 AT DODGE CITY
AND AROUND 90 PERCENT AT LIBERAL AND ELKHART. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY, WITH OVER AN INCH SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF
DODGE CITY. LOWS MONDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLEST OVER WESTERN KANSAS WITH HIGHS FROM THE
MID AND UPPER 40S THERE, TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S EAST OF DODGE
CITY.
FOR TUESDAY, THE UPPER LOW OVER OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST. THE
NEW ECMWF HAS THE LOW MOVING OUT MUCH FASTER THAN THE GFS AND
CANADIAN. WILL CONTINUE WITH LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING FROM NEAR
DODGE CITY AND SOUTH. LOWS TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE FROM 39 WEST TO
THE MID 40S OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WITH A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES SLOWLY MOVING EAST INTO
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL WARM FROM THE
40S TO THE 50S. HIGHS WILL WARM FROM THE LOW 70S ON WEDNESDAY TO
AROUND 80 FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS EARLY TONIGHT SHOWING LIFR
CEILINGS SPREADING SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. BASED ON
LOWERING CEILINGS FROM THE UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS, 00Z NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS, ALONG WITH THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR THE CEILINGS WILL
FALL INTO THE LIFR CATEGORY BY 06Z SUNDAY AND THEN REMAIN BELOW
500FT AGL THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z. CEILINGS WILL THEN GRADUALLY
IMPROVE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z. VISIBILITIES
SHOULD STAY IN THE MVFR CATEGORY BASED ON THE MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
GIVEN THAT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 57 42 53 41 / 20 60 60 30
GCK 53 43 49 40 / 30 50 60 20
EHA 54 41 46 39 / 50 90 90 40
LBL 57 45 48 41 / 30 80 90 50
HYS 54 41 58 40 / 20 20 30 20
P28 65 48 56 44 / 10 70 70 50
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1217 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
AT 00Z SUNDAY A +100KT 250MB JET WAS LOCATED ON THE WEST SIDE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN NEVADA INTO
EASTERN WASHINGTON. EAST OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH A WEAK 500MB
RIDGE AXIS WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
ALSO EVIDENT OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WAS A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. ONE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AT 00Z SUNDAY APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO
INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY APPEARS TO EXTEND
FROM SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS. BEHIND THIS SECOND
BOUNDARY COOLER AIR WAS PRESENT AT THE SURFACE AND THE 850MB LEVEL
ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS SPREADING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT TRAVERSED THE CENTRAL PLAINS
YESTERDAY HAS MOVED EASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST, SHIFTING THE LOW
LEVEL MOIST AXIS EASTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS HAD RESULT IN
DOWNSLOPE WARMING, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. SOME COLD ADVECTION WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS. SOME CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG A WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ZONE; AND A FEW SHOWERS WITH A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS THROUGH THE EVENING. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WAS DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. AS THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PROGRESS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT, A
COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO NEBRASKA WILL MOVE
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO KANSAS, WITH UPSLOPE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS
DEVELOPING. THIS COOLER UPSTREAM AIRMASS WAS ALREADY MOIST, WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S ACROSS
EASTERN NEBRASKA. THEREFORE, AS THIS AIR MOVES UP SLOPE INTO
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS, EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDINESS WILL RESULT. IN
ADDITION, THE MOIST LAYER WILL APPROACH 1 KM IN DEPTH, WHICH WOULD
BE FAVORABLE FOR DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT TOWARD MORNING, ESPECIALLY FROM
GARDEN CITY AND SCOTT CITY WESTWARD TO THE COLORADO BORDER. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MOVES EVEN CLOSER AND
BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF, THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HAD BEEN SUPPRESSED
WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW AND OVER THE LOW LEVEL FRONTAL SURFACE. HOWEVER, ANY
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL JUST AFTER 7 PM
SUNDAY, SO THAT THE DETAILS OF THIS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE LONG
TERM DISCUSSION. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE CLOUDY AIRMASS OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY SHOULD ONLY RISE A FEW DEGREES DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVER, WITH 50S ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN KANSAS, AND SOME
60S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SPREADING FROM FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS INTO
MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR OR SOUTH OF HAYS. WILL RANGE
RAIN CHANCES FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT AT HAYS TO 60 AT DODGE CITY
AND AROUND 90 PERCENT AT LIBERAL AND ELKHART. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY, WITH OVER AN INCH SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF
DODGE CITY. LOWS MONDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLEST OVER WESTERN KANSAS WITH HIGHS FROM THE
MID AND UPPER 40S THERE, TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S EAST OF DODGE
CITY.
FOR TUESDAY, THE UPPER LOW OVER OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST. THE
NEW ECMWF HAS THE LOW MOVING OUT MUCH FASTER THAN THE GFS AND
CANADIAN. WILL CONTINUE WITH LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING FROM NEAR
DODGE CITY AND SOUTH. LOWS TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE FROM 39 WEST TO
THE MID 40S OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WITH A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES SLOWLY MOVING EAST INTO
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL WARM FROM THE
40S TO THE 50S. HIGHS WILL WARM FROM THE LOW 70S ON WEDNESDAY TO
AROUND 80 FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS EARLY TONIGHT SHOWING LIFR
CEILINGS SPREADING SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. BASED ON
LOWERING CEILINGS FROM THE UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS, 00Z NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS, ALONG WITH THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR THE CEILINGS WILL
FALL INTO THE LIFR CATEGORY BY 06Z SUNDAY AND THEN REMAIN BELOW
500FT AGL THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z. CEILINGS WILL THEN GRADUALLY
IMPROVE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z. VISIBILITIES
SHOULD STAY IN THE MVFR CATEGORY BASED ON THE MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
GIVEN THAT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 42 53 41 64 / 60 60 30 20
GCK 43 49 40 65 / 60 60 20 10
EHA 41 46 39 61 / 90 90 40 10
LBL 45 48 41 62 / 80 90 50 20
HYS 41 58 40 67 / 30 30 20 10
P28 48 56 44 65 / 60 70 50 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
949 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015
.UPDATE...
THERE ARE NUMEROUS FORECAST CONCERNS BOTH ON LAND AND OVER THE
GULF WATERS TONIGHT. FOR THE TIME BEING...THE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING APPEARS LIMITED OVER MOST LAND
AREAS...BUT STILL ELEVATED NEAR THE EXTREME SOUTH COASTAL AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
WHERE A WELL DEFINED FRONTAL/STRONG CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY HAS
SETTLED. THIS AREA OF STRONGEST CONVECTION ALSO APPEARS TO BE NEAR
THE FAVORABLE NOSE OF THE SUBRTROPICAL JET WHERE UPPER DIVERGENCE
IS MAXIMIZED. THE 18Z GFS APPEARS TO BE VERIFYING QPF WISE THE
BEST...AND THE HRRR GIVE SHORT TERM SUPPORT TO THE GFS. HAD
CONCERNS EARLIER THIS EVENING THAT RAINFALL/QPF WOULD EXCEED
EARLIER EXPECTATIONS WHEN THINGS DEVELOPED RAPIDLY...BUT TRENDS
MAY NOW BE REVERSING. WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR NOW GIVEN ALL THE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS THAT REMAIN IN
PLACE...BUT THE WATCH COULD NEED TO BE TRIMMED BACK CLOSER TO THE
COAST LATER TONIGHT. UPDATES WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. 22/TD
&&
.MARINE...
NUMEROUS UNFORESEEN FACTORS HAVE KEPT FAIRLY CONSISTENT STRONG
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL GALES...EVEN AWAY
FROM THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
EARLIER THIS EVENING...AND WILL KEEP THAT INTACT AND ISSUE SHORT
FUSE SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS FOR THE NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT SHOULD CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT. 22/TD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 813 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/
..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS EVENING IS DEPICTING A MODIFIED ENVIRONMENT AT
LOW LEVELS FROM THE CONVECTION EARLIER TODAY. WINDS ARE EASTERLY
FROM THE SFC TO 750 MB THEN SWITCH TO WESTERLY. THERE IS A 10 F
INVERSION FROM THE SFC TO 900 MB... WHICH IMPLIES CONVECTION TO
THE NORTH THIS EVENING IS ELEVATED. SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A MORE RICH
MARITIME AIRMASS FROM THE GULF WOULD RESULT IN A MORE UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE COAST. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP
HOWEVER AT ABOUT 7.3 C/KM. THE JET MAX IS 120 KTS AT 160 MB AND PW
IS ABOVE NORMAL AT 1.46 INCHES.
KRAUTMANN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/
SHORT TERM...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
MAIN CONCERNS TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
POTENT STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED WAVES OF ENERGY IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. IT WAS A BUSY MORNING WITH
NUMEROUS SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS AND SOME REPORTS OF FLOODING.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA HAVE BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. CURRENT
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AS STORMS TO THE WEST
MOVE ACROSS THIS REGION. LARGE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED
THE LAST COUPLE HOURS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...OFF THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST...WILL LIKELY GROW IN NUMBER AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO
WEST TO SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA EITHER LATE THIS
EVENING OR AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS WOULD BE CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER
FORECAST REASONING AND THE TRENDS OF THE LATEST 12Z GFS AND ECMWF
QPF FORECASTS. IT IS ANTICIPATED THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE IN SINGLE CELLS...CLUSTERS AND LINE SEGMENTS...AND THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE AND FAST MOVEMENT SHOULD HOLD THE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS DOWN IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE IN MOST AREAS. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS THIS EVENING...AS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LARGER SWATHS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH EMBEDDED
HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 6 INCHES. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THESE AMOUNTS
ARE REALIZED OR EXCEEDED...THERE WILL BE MAXIMIZED RAINFALL
EFFICIENCY THAT COULD DROP SOME 2 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS IN A ONE TO
TWO HOUR PERIOD. FOR THAT REASON...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
OBVIOUSLY NEEDED TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE
LEFT THE WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 PM TUESDAY.
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. BASED ON THE RECENT HISTORY OF
SEVERE TRENDS...THE STRONG DYNAMICS...IMPRESSIVE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER AS HIGH AS AROUND 2
INCHES...WILL ALL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR FLOODING RAINS AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.
IMPROVEMENT WILL BE ON THE HORIZON STARTING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND ESPECIALLY GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MUCH DRIER
AIR MOVES IN.
LONG TERM...
THE DRY AIR WILL LEAD TO COOLER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR LATE
IN THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A
REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR WILL MOVE FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ANY ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN WELL NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO ONLY A FEW
PASSING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA HAS NO
MENTION OF RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AND MUCH OF THIS
TIME WILL BE COMPLETELY CLEAR WITH LOW HUMIDITY. 22/TD
AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE
LEFT VCTS IN MOST TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT ANOTHER AREA
OF STORMS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND SHOULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS
FROM WEST TO EAST MAINLY AFTER 06Z.
MARINE...
AFTER AN EVENTFUL MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON STORMS ARE FINALLY
PUSHING OUT OF THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION TONIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TO DEVELOP
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND THEY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR
THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND AND MOVE EAST THROUGH THE LOCAL COASTAL
WATERS TUESDAY. THIS WILL HELP SHIFT WINDS FROM AN EASTERLY AND
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TO NW. WITH THE LOW MOVING EAST SLOWLY...NW
WIND SPEEDS WILL STAY ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY. RETURN FLOW ON
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL START ONCE AGAIN BY NEXT WEEK. 13/MH
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...ORANGE
DEPLOYED...NAVY WEEK.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
THROUGH TUESDAY.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 70 60 71 51 / 90 90 50 20
BTR 72 64 75 52 / 80 90 40 20
ASD 73 67 77 55 / 100 100 50 20
MSY 74 69 79 57 / 100 100 40 20
GPT 74 66 75 58 / 100 100 60 30
PQL 73 65 78 58 / 100 100 70 40
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR LAZ034>037-039-
040-046>050-056>072.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ536-538-550-
552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MSZ068>071-077-
080>082.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ538-550-552-
555-557-570-572-575-577.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
727 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO SRN JAMES BAY. TO THE E...A MID
LEVEL LOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES/NRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST EXTENDS BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND WRAPS SOME MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE UPPER LAKES. AS OF 19Z...W EDGE OF THE STRATOCU DECK
FM THIS MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW RUNS FROM ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE FAR
ERN COUNTIES OF UPPER MI. CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED INTO CENTRAL UPPER
MI THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT WITH THE MID-LVL AND SFC HIGH
PRES RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR EXCEPT
PARTLY CLOUDY EAST WHERE THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE FOR CLOUDS ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRES TROUGH AT
LEAST INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TONIGHT TO DROP INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE INTERIOR WEST WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL MAXIMIZED DUE TO CALM WINDS UNDER AXIS OF SFC RIDGE AND PWATS
OF .25 INCH OR LESS. ELSEWHERE MIN TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 30S.
ON TUESDAY...MODELS INDICATE SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NRN
PLAINS BUT SHOW BEST Q-VECT CONV AND MID-LVL MOISTURE ASSOC WITH
SHORTWAVE GENERALLY LIFTING NORTH AND WEST OF UPPER MI. MODELS HINT
THAT PERHAPS THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA COULD SEE SOME
SPRINKLES/-SHRA TUE EVENING. BUT GIVEN THE DRYNESS OF THE AIR MASS
ALREADY IN PLACE WL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FCST THROUGH 00Z WED BUT
REFLECT EXPECTED INCREASE IN MID-LVL CLOUDS ALONG WEAK COLD-FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN GRIDS. HIGH TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST COULD REACH
INTO THE MID 60S...BUT DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS UNDER
WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER (IN THE 50S) ALONG THE
GREAT LAKES AND EAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015
A RIDGE (FROM HIGH PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA) WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES EVEN AS SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
THE FIRST WAVE AND DECAYING COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE CWA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD (TUESDAY NIGHT)...BUT MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIMITED AND THE BEST MID LEVEL FORCING SLIDES TO
THE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AT THIS POINT...DIDN/T FEEL STRONGLY
ENOUGH TO ADD ANY POPS IN FOR THE LAND AREAS (KEPT OVER NRN
LAKE SUPERIOR)...BUT IT MAY BE A SITUATION WHERE WE MIGHT HAVE TO
ADD SOME SPRINKLES TO THE FORECAST OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THAT FIRST WAVE...ANOTHER WAVE (CURRENTLY
ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE IN NORTHERN ALBERTA) WILL DIVE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND AFFECTING THE
EASTERN U.P. ON WEDNESDAY. ONCE AGAIN...WITH LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH...ANY PRECIP WILL BE TIED TO THE MOISTURE INDICATED
BELOW 850MB ON THE MODELS. THERE IS SOME LIFT IN THAT REGION...TIED
TO THE POCKET OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...BUT WOULDN/T
EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN CLOUDS AND A FEW SPRINKLES. WITH THIS WAVE
LOOKING MUCH STRONGER THAN THE FIRST...WILL ADD SOME SPRINKLES OVER
THE EAST AND NORTH CENTRAL (WHICH MAY HAVE SOME UPSLOPE HELP) FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AN UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING EAST ON
FRIDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY WILL KEEP TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL AS CLOUDS DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. THEN...AS WINDS
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES RISE TO
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES UNDER DEEP MIXING (TO 800-750MB) AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES EAST AND PARTLY CLOUDY WEST. FORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND OFFSET THE LOWER RH (UPPER 20S TO MID 30S) AS THE
U.P. IS IN ITS CRITICAL TIME BEFORE GREEN-UP.
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING EAST...THE REGION WILL TRANSITION TO
ZONAL FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND POTENTIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK. THAT
WILL PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED
SHORTWAVES BRUSH THE AREA. TIMING THESE WAVES IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT
IN THESE SITUATIONS...SO WILL SHOW SOME SLIGHT CHANCES (ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WEST) ASSOCIATED WITH TWO WAVES QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SUNDAY LOOKS
DRY AT THIS POINT...WITH ANOTHER WAVE POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THIS
WAVE...WHETHER IT STAYS NORTH OR MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BUT THERE
THEY INDICATE ENOUGH BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION TO SUPPORT
SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 726 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WITH DAYTIME
LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS DOMINATING WINDS AND WIND DIRECTIONS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015
AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS E ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL FALL OFF TO MOSTLY UNDER 10KT ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE. ON
TUE...WINDS WILL BE UNDER 15KT AS THE RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A WEAK LOW
PRES TROF THAT PASSES TUE NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...ANOTHER HIGH PRES
WILL RIDGE S FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WED/THU. AS
THE HIGH BEGINS RIDGING S INTO THE UPPER LAKES WED...WINDS OVER ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY GUST TO NEAR 20KT ONCE AGAIN. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER OVER THE W. WITH WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER LAKES
THU INTO SAT...WIND SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNDER 15KT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
317 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP CYC FLOW ARND
CLOSED LO CENTERED OVER NOVA SCOTIA EXTENDING W INTO THE UPR LKS AND
DOWNSTREAM OF UPR RDG IN THE PLAINS. SHRTWV EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPR
TROF IS NEAR THE SOO AND SHIFTING TO THE SSW IN THE NE UPR FLOW ARND
THE CLOSED LO. THIS DISTURBANCE IS BRINGING SOME CLDS TO ERN UPR
MI...BUT ANY ACCOMPANYING PCPN IS ON TRACK TO REMAIN TO THE E OF THE
CWA. THERE IS ANOTHER SHRTWV OVER WRN QUEBEC ROTATING TO THE WSW
ARND THE CLOSED LO. 12Z RAOB FM MOOSONEE ONTARIO SHOWED DEEP
SATURATION. UNDER THE TWO SHRTWVS NOTED TO THE E...THERE ARE PLENTY
OF LO CLDS E AND NE OF THE SOO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEEPER MSTR.
DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS FARTHER TO THE W AS SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB AND
INL RAOBS /12Z PWAT AT THOSE LOCATIONS WAS ABOUT 0.25 INCH AND AS
LITTLE AS 50 PCT OF NORMAL/ IS MAINTAINING MOSUNNY SKIES OVER MOST
OF THE CWA. TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 50S AWAY FM THE MODERATING
INFLUENCE OF LK SUP...BUT READINGS REMAIN NEAR 40 ALONG THE CHILLY
LK SUP SHORE.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR AREA OF
LO CLDS TO THE NE TO IMPACT UPR MI AND IMPACT ON TEMPS.
TNGT...AS SECOND SHRTWV NOW OVER WRN QUEBEC ROTATES SWWD AND OVER
FAR ERN UPR MI...THE LLVL FLOW IS FCST TO VEER MORE TO THE NE AND
ADVECT THE MORE COPIOUS LLVL MSTR INTO THE UPR LKS. IN CONCERT WITH
NOCTURNAL COOLING THAT WL END DEEP MIXING...EXPECT BKN-OVC LO CLDS
TO DVLP OVER MAINLY THE NCENTRAL AND ERN CWA AS INDICATED BY CURRENT
FCST. ALTHOUGH THE DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THIS SHRTWV
ARE FCST TO BRUSH THE ERN CWA...THE BULK OF THE MODELS INDICATE THE
PCPN WL REMAIN TO THE E OF THAT AREA WITH THE MID LVLS REMAINING TOO
DRY. SEVERAL OF THE HIER RES MODELS DO GENERATE SOME LGT PCPN OVER
MAINLY THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NCENTRAL...WHERE THE UPSLOPE FLOW WL
BE MAXIMIZED. OPTED TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF SOME DRIZZLE/FLURRIES IN
THESE AREAS LATE TNGT. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR
FAR W...WHICH WL BE FARTHER FM THE INCOMING HIER LLVL MSTR AND WHERE
DOWNSLOPE...MORE DIFFLUENT FLOW NEAR SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS WL
RESTRICT THE POTENTIAL FOR LO CLDS THAT WOULD ARRIVE LATER.
MON...WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND FCST LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVRN SHOWN
ON FCST SDNGS...EXPECT THE LO CLDS TO GRADUALLY MIX OUT. THIS
PROCESS WL BE SLOWEST OVER THE NCENTRAL AND E. H85 TEMPS WL BE CLOSE
TO 0C...SO MAX TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE 50S OVER THE INTERIOR W
AND SCENTRAL WITH DEEP MIXING. BUT HI TEMPS WL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE
LO END OF GUIDANCE OVER THE NCENTRAL AND E WITH MORE LO CLDS/LK
MODERATION IN PERSISTENT LLVL N FLOW.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
A DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED MOST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
IS DOMINANT FACTOR. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN VARIABLE...STARTING OUT WITH
A RIDGE ALOFT UPSTREAM OF LARGE UPPER LOW MOVING OFF THE EASTERN
CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. STRONG JET SURGING ACROSS WESTERN CANADA
BRINGS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SCNTRL CANADA ON MONDAY AND FM NORTHERN
ONTARIO TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. PRIMARY
WAVE SPLITS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE LINGERING
RIDGING FM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN QUEBEC. EXPECT DRY
WEATHER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF SHOWED SHORTWAVE DIVING
SSE ACROSS UPR LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT. THAT RUN OF ECMWF ALSO FORECASTED SUFFICIENT
H85-H7 RH TO GENERATE QPF OVER MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS WEDNESDAY
EVENING. GFS AND GEM-NH AND NOW THE 12Z ECMWF NOT AS BULLISH
THOUGH...KEEPING STRONGEST FORCING TO THE EAST. WILL NOT SHOW MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHANCES FAR EAST AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN CHILLY
TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHERLY GRADIENT WINDS NEAR
LK SUPERIOR. TEMPS MAY STILL TOUCH 60 DEGREES OVER INLAND AREAS NEAR
WI BORDER.
SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST BY THURSDAY PAVING THE WAY FOR RIDGING TO
EXPAND FM CNTRL PLAINS TO SCNTRL CANADA TOWARD WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
AS THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE MORE OF A LAKE BREEZE DAY AT LEAST
WEST...SO COOLING THERE WILL NOT BE AS EXPANSIVE AS WEDNESDAY.
ENOUGH GRADIENT NORTH WINDS EAST TO KEEP ANY LK MICHIGAN LAKE BREEZE
FROM DEVELOPING. DUE TO DEEPER MIXING...EXPECT HIGHS INLAND WEST TO
REACH LOW-MID 60S. SHOWED LOWEST DWPNTS/RH OVER INTERIOR WEST BUT
ALSO ALONG LK MICHIGAN WHERE PERSISTENT NORTH WINDS PROVIDE
DOWNSLOPE DRYING.
MORE STRONG JET ENERGY PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN CANADA WILL PROPEL
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER SCNTRL CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. UNLIKE THE WAVE EARLIER IN THE
WEEK...WAVE HOLDS TOGETHER WHILE PRESSING EAST AND THERE IS DECENT
MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG ASSOCIATED SFC-H85 TROUGH SWINGING TOWARD
UPPER GREAT LAKES. AFTER A WARM AND DRY DAY FOR FRIDAY WITH SOME
TEMPS REACHING LOWER 70S...SOME SHOWERS SHOULD SWING OVER THE CWA
LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...BUT DESPITE THE WARMTH AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM...THERE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH H85 THETA-E ADVECTION OR
FORECAST INSTABILITY TO PUT ANY TSRA IN ALONG THE TROUGH. SEEMS
MODELS ARE LOCKING ONTO THIS IDEA OF SOME SHRA THOUGH WITH SIMILAR
TIMING IN TROUGH PASSAGE. CARRIED LOW CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
INTO NEXT WEEKEND...GFS QUICKER WITH PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
OVER SCNTRL CANADA...SO IT SHOWS ANOTHER SFC TROUGH AND WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION/QPF INTO WESTERN LAKES AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT. 00Z
ECMWF APPEARED MORE REASONABLE BY SHOWING SLOWER PROGRESSION OF MAIN
TROUGHING AND DEVELOPING A SFC WARM FRONT FM NORTHERN PLAINS TO
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON LEADING EDGE OF VERY WARM AIR. 00Z
ECMWF WOULD INDICATE DUE TO THE MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT TO THE
NORTH OF WARM FRONT COULD SEE CHANCES OF ELEVATED SHOWERS SPREAD
TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. BETTER CHANCE
FOR TSRA WOULD BE CLOSER...BUT PROBABLY WOULD SET UP JUST SOUTH OF
UPPER LAKES CLOSER TO GRADIENT OF 1-2K J/KG MUCAPE AREA FM CNTRL
PLAINS TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LATEST ECMWF IS A MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN PLOWING MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT INTO UPR
LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LEANED ON CONSENSUS BUT DID
INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY GIVEN THAT TREND. DID NOT PUT TSRA
IN FORECAST YET THOUGH THOUGH BASED ON H85 THETA-E AND GRADIENT OF
MUCAPE FM THE 12Z ECMWF IT COULD OCCUR OVER THE AREA. GIVEN H85
TEMPS WARMING ABOVE +10C...TEMPS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY COULD RISE
AT LEAST INTO THE LOW 70S MOST AREAS AWAY FM ANY COOLING FM THE
LAKES. BASED ON 12Z RUNS OF MODELS...THINK BEST CHANCE FOR WARMING
WILL BE ON SATURDAY AFTN IN WAKE OF FRIDAY NIGHT SYSTEM WITH
WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND INCREASING SUNSHINE/DRYING. TEMPS ON
SUNDAY WILL DEPEND ON SHRA AND CLOUD COVERAGE. LEANED ON CONSENSUS
TEMPS /HIGHS MAINLY 60S/ MORE THAN SATURDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES OF
RAIN BY THAT POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
AS MORE LLVL MSTR ARRIVES FM THE NE TNGT IN THE PRESENCE OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING...EXPECT LO CLDS TO IMPACT MAINLY CMX AND
ESPECIALLY SAW...WHERE THE EXPECTED NNE WIND WL HAVE THE SHARPER
UPSLOPE COMPONENT. IFR CIGS SHOULD OCCUR AT SAW FOR A NUMBER OF HRS
LATE TNGT THRU MUCH OF MON MRNG. IFR CONDITIONS AT CMX WL ALSO BE
PSBL...BUT MAINTAINED PREVIOUS FCST LO MVFR RANGE CONDITIONS FOR
NOW. IWD MAY ALSO SEE SOME LO CLDS/MVFR CIGS...BUT DOWNSLOPE WIND
COMPONENT AND LOCATION OF WRN EDGE OF THE MORE SGNFT MSTR JUSTIFY
ONLY A SCT SKY FCST ATTM. SAW WL SEE THE SLOWEST IMPROVEMENT ON
MON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS NOT LIKELY THERE UNTIL AFTER THE END OF
THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
EXPECT N WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MON...STRONGEST OVER THE E HALF OF
THE LAKE UNDER SHARPER PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HI PRES RIDGE ALIGNED
FROM NW ONTARIO THRU THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. AS THE HI PRES RIDGE
DRIFTS TO THE E LATER ON MON THRU TUE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH UNDER 15
KTS. A LO PRES TROF WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES TUE NIGHT AND THEN
GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER HI PRES RIDGE THRU THU. SINCE THE PRES GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE...WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW 15 KTS.
ALTHOUGH THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP A BIT ON FRI AHEAD OF
ANOTHER LO PRES TROF...HI STABILITY OVER THE CHILLY LAKE WATERS
SHOULD HOLDS WINDS UNDER 15 KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
132 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO SRN HUDSON BAY. TO THE SE...A MID LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH ITS BROAD CIRCULATION
EXTENDING BACK TO THE UPPER LAKES. TWO SHORTWAVES OF NOTE ARE
SWINGING W IN THE MID LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION ACROSS SE CANADA. THE
FIRST IS S OF JAMES BAY AND THE SECOND IS N OF MAINE. AT THE SFC...
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS SUPPORTING HIGH PRES RIDGING S FROM HUDSON
BAY INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UNDER DRY AIR MASS PER 00Z
REGIONAL SOUNDINGS...CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FCST
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. TO THE NE...FIRST SHORTWAVE S OF JAMES IS
HELPING TO SPREAD SCT-BKN CLOUDS TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE S OF JAMES BAY WILL ROTATE INTO NRN LWR MI THIS
AFTN/EVENING...SPREADING SOME CLOUDINESS INTO THE ERN FCST AREA
TODAY. TRENDS IN THE MODELS SHOW A BACKING OFF ON THE POTENTIAL
CLOUD COVER WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON OVERNIGHT SATELLITE
IMAGERY. FCST THUS REFLECTS A MORE OPTIMISTIC SKY CONDITION FOR
CNTRL UPPER MI TODAY. MAY STILL SEE SOME PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS OVER THE ERN FCST AREA THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY LATE. AS
FOR TEMPS...RATHER BRISK GRADIENT FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL HOLD
TEMPS TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. MOST LAKESIDE
LOCATIONS FROM THE KEWEENAW EASTWARD WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 30S.
WELL INLAND...NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS AND PROJECTED MIXING HEIGHTS
SUGGEST HIGH TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 50F. THERE MAY BE SOME LWR
50S TOWARD THE MI/WI BORDER FROM MENOMINEE COUNTY TO IRON COUNTY.
TONIGHT...SECOND SHORTWAVE NOW N OF MAINE WILL FOLLOW THE SAME TRACK
AS THE FIRST AND SHOULD REACH NRN LWR MI LATE TONIGHT. MODELS ARE
AGGRESSIVE IN SWINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO UPPER MI TONIGHT WITH THIS
FEATURE. OF PARTICULAR NOTE IS THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THE NAM/GFS
SHOW. LOOKING TO THE NE...LOW CIGS ARE NOTED IN AND AROUND JAMES BAY
AND EASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH THIS MOISTURE PUSHING SW INTO
THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT WHEN DAYTIME HEATING IS ABSENT TO HELP
LIFT OR MIX MOISTURE OUT...IT LOOKS FAIRLY LIKELY THAT LOW CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP/EXPAND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY LATE...OVER AT LEAST THE
NCNTRL AND E...AIDED BY UPSLOPE FLOW. NAM FCST SOUNDINGS EVEN
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME -DZ/-FZDZ WHERE STRONGEST UPSLOPE
OCCURS. WILL BE SOMETHING TO TAKE A LOOK AT AGAIN IN LATER MODEL
RUNS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH SUN NIGHT WILL LEAD TO CLOUD COVER EARLY
MON OVER ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL AND ERN CWA. THE CLOUD COVER WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH AS THE SFC RIDGE MOVES BACK IN FROM THE W AS WELL AS
THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER RIDGE. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME
LIGHT DRIZZLE IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF NCENTRAL UPPER MI...BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. INTERIOR W SHOULD SEE HIGHS
APPROACH 60F ON MON...WHILE LAKESHORE AND ERN AREAS ARE QUITE A BIT
COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE UPPER 40S.
A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE TUE
EVENING AND AGAIN ON WED...WITH MODELS CURRENTLY SHOWING THE
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ON WED. MODELS HAVE NOT SHOWN GOOD CONTINUITY
WITH THESE FEATURES...SO CONFIDENCE IN EXACT DETAILS IS LOW.
HOWEVER...MODEL DO GENERALLY AGREE THAT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED
ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP FROM OCCURING. TUE WILL BE
WARMER THAN MON WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S AS THE AIRMASS WILL BE
WARMER AND THE SHORTWAVE/CLOUD COVER DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER IN
THE DAY. WED COULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT COOLER AIRMASS DEPENDING ON
DETAILS WITH THE SHORTWAVE...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE
40S TO MID 50S.
UPPER RIDGING REPLACES THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY THU INTO FRI. MODELS
HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH CONTINUITY IN THE STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE...LIMITED CONFIDENCE SOME. HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE 50S TO
MID 60S...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S ON
FRI. MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND DISCONTINUITY CERTAINLY CONTINUE AND
INCREASE ON SAT AS MODELS VARY VASTLY IN THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT
OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER CENTRAL CANADA. MODELS SHOW SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE CWA WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH LATE
FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WHICH COULD PRODUCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA.
WILL CONTINUE SHOWING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.
ADDITIONAL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS /ALSO TIED TO UNCERTAINTIES
WITH THE CENTRAL CANADA ENERGY/ WITH TEMPS ON SAT. THE 12Z/25 ECMWF
BRINGS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE TO JUST W OF THE CWA BY 00Z SUN
WHILE THE 00Z/26 GFS HAS AN UPPER TROUGH WHERE THE ECMWF HAS THE
RIDGE. AIRMASS WILL BE A LOT WARMER UNDER THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH
850MB TEMPS OF 12C BY 00Z SUN WHILE THE GFS IS AT 8C. WHILE
POTENTIAL FOR MUCH WARMER TEMPS EXISTS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH A CONSENSUS APPROACH WITH HIGHS INT HE 60S AND 70S
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
AS MORE LLVL MSTR ARRIVES FM THE NE TNGT IN THE PRESENCE OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING...EXPECT LO CLDS TO IMPACT MAINLY CMX AND
ESPECIALLY SAW...WHERE THE EXPECTED NNE WIND WL HAVE THE SHARPER
UPSLOPE COMPONENT. IFR CIGS SHOULD OCCUR AT SAW FOR A NUMBER OF HRS
LATE TNGT THRU MUCH OF MON MRNG. IFR CONDITIONS AT CMX WL ALSO BE
PSBL...BUT MAINTAINED PREVIOUS FCST LO MVFR RANGE CONDITIONS FOR
NOW. IWD MAY ALSO SEE SOME LO CLDS/MVFR CIGS...BUT DOWNSLOPE WIND
COMPONENT AND LOCATION OF WRN EDGE OF THE MORE SGNFT MSTR JUSTIFY
ONLY A SCT SKY FCST ATTM. SAW WL SEE THE SLOWEST IMPROVEMENT ON
MON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS NOT LIKELY THERE UNTIL AFTER THE END OF
THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING S THRU WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY THRU
MON...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...MOSTLY UNDER
15KT. OVER THE E...WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 20-25KT. THE
RIDGE WILL WEAKEN TUE AND GIVE WAY TO LOW PRES TROF PASSAGE TUE
NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...ANOTHER HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE S FROM HUDSON BAY
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WED/THU. WITH PRES GRADIENT ON THE WEAK
SIDE...WINDS TUE THRU THU SHOULD BE UNDER 15KT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME STRONGER WINDS ON WED AS THE HIGH BEGINS
RIDGING S INTO THE UPPER LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
711 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO SRN HUDSON BAY. TO THE SE...A MID LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH ITS BROAD CIRCULATION
EXTENDING BACK TO THE UPPER LAKES. TWO SHORTWAVES OF NOTE ARE
SWINGING W IN THE MID LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION ACROSS SE CANADA. THE
FIRST IS S OF JAMES BAY AND THE SECOND IS N OF MAINE. AT THE SFC...
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS SUPPORTING HIGH PRES RIDGING S FROM HUDSON
BAY INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UNDER DRY AIR MASS PER 00Z
REGIONAL SOUNDINGS...CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FCST
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. TO THE NE...FIRST SHORTWAVE S OF JAMES IS
HELPING TO SPREAD SCT-BKN CLOUDS TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE S OF JAMES BAY WILL ROTATE INTO NRN LWR MI THIS
AFTN/EVENING...SPREADING SOME CLOUDINESS INTO THE ERN FCST AREA
TODAY. TRENDS IN THE MODELS SHOW A BACKING OFF ON THE POTENTIAL
CLOUD COVER WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON OVERNIGHT SATELLITE
IMAGERY. FCST THUS REFLECTS A MORE OPTIMISTIC SKY CONDITION FOR
CNTRL UPPER MI TODAY. MAY STILL SEE SOME PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS OVER THE ERN FCST AREA THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY LATE. AS
FOR TEMPS...RATHER BRISK GRADIENT FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL HOLD
TEMPS TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. MOST LAKESIDE
LOCATIONS FROM THE KEWEENAW EASTWARD WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 30S.
WELL INLAND...NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS AND PROJECTED MIXING HEIGHTS
SUGGEST HIGH TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 50F. THERE MAY BE SOME LWR
50S TOWARD THE MI/WI BORDER FROM MENOMINEE COUNTY TO IRON COUNTY.
TONIGHT...SECOND SHORTWAVE NOW N OF MAINE WILL FOLLOW THE SAME TRACK
AS THE FIRST AND SHOULD REACH NRN LWR MI LATE TONIGHT. MODELS ARE
AGGRESSIVE IN SWINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO UPPER MI TONIGHT WITH THIS
FEATURE. OF PARTICULAR NOTE IS THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THE NAM/GFS
SHOW. LOOKING TO THE NE...LOW CIGS ARE NOTED IN AND AROUND JAMES BAY
AND EASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH THIS MOISTURE PUSHING SW INTO
THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT WHEN DAYTIME HEATING IS ABSENT TO HELP
LIFT OR MIX MOISTURE OUT...IT LOOKS FAIRLY LIKELY THAT LOW CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP/EXPAND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY LATE...OVER AT LEAST THE
NCNTRL AND E...AIDED BY UPSLOPE FLOW. NAM FCST SOUNDINGS EVEN
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME -DZ/-FZDZ WHERE STRONGEST UPSLOPE
OCCURS. WILL BE SOMETHING TO TAKE A LOOK AT AGAIN IN LATER MODEL
RUNS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH SUN NIGHT WILL LEAD TO CLOUD COVER EARLY
MON OVER ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL AND ERN CWA. THE CLOUD COVER WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH AS THE SFC RIDGE MOVES BACK IN FROM THE W AS WELL AS
THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER RIDGE. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME
LIGHT DRIZZLE IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF NCENTRAL UPPER MI...BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. INTERIOR W SHOULD SEE HIGHS
APPROACH 60F ON MON...WHILE LAKESHORE AND ERN AREAS ARE QUITE A BIT
COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE UPPER 40S.
A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE TUE
EVENING AND AGAIN ON WED...WITH MODELS CURRENTLY SHOWING THE
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ON WED. MODELS HAVE NOT SHOWN GOOD CONTINUITY
WITH THESE FEATURES...SO CONFIDENCE IN EXACT DETAILS IS LOW.
HOWEVER...MODEL DO GENERALLY AGREE THAT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED
ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP FROM OCCURING. TUE WILL BE
WARMER THAN MON WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S AS THE AIRMASS WILL BE
WARMER AND THE SHORTWAVE/CLOUD COVER DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER IN
THE DAY. WED COULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT COOLER AIRMASS DEPENDING ON
DETAILS WITH THE SHORTWAVE...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE
40S TO MID 50S.
UPPER RIDGING REPLACES THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY THU INTO FRI. MODELS
HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH CONTINUITY IN THE STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE...LIMITED CONFIDENCE SOME. HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE 50S TO
MID 60S...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S ON
FRI. MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND DISCONTINUITY CERTAINLY CONTINUE AND
INCREASE ON SAT AS MODELS VARY VASTLY IN THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT
OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER CENTRAL CANADA. MODELS SHOW SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE CWA WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH LATE
FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WHICH COULD PRODUCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA.
WILL CONTINUE SHOWING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.
ADDITIONAL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS /ALSO TIED TO UNCERTAINTIES
WITH THE CENTRAL CANADA ENERGY/ WITH TEMPS ON SAT. THE 12Z/25 ECMWF
BRINGS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE TO JUST W OF THE CWA BY 00Z SUN
WHILE THE 00Z/26 GFS HAS AN UPPER TROUGH WHERE THE ECMWF HAS THE
RIDGE. AIRMASS WILL BE A LOT WARMER UNDER THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH
850MB TEMPS OF 12C BY 00Z SUN WHILE THE GFS IS AT 8C. WHILE
POTENTIAL FOR MUCH WARMER TEMPS EXISTS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH A CONSENSUS APPROACH WITH HIGHS INT HE 60S AND 70S
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 710 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
FCST CHALLENGE DURING THIS FCST PERIOD WILL BE THE SOUTHWESTWARD
PUSH OF MOISTURE/LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE CURRENTLY NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
INITIALLY TODAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS...EXPECT DAYTIME HEATING TO
HELP MIX OUT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING TOWARD THE AREA...
RESULTING IN PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
TONIGHT...LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MAKE A STRONG PUSH INTO THE AREA. KSAW
IS MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED. AIDED BY UPSLOPE FLOW...EXPECT CIGS
TO FALL TO IFR THERE DURING THE OVERNIGHT. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
THAT CIGS COULD EVEN FALL TO LIFR. KCMX SHOULD SEE LOW MVFR CIGS...
POSSIBLY IFR...DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. FARTHEST W FROM THE MOISTURE
SURGE...KIWD MAY STAY VFR TONIGHT...BUT AN IFR CIG IS A POSSIBILITY
LATE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING S THRU WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY THRU
MON...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...MOSTLY UNDER
15KT. OVER THE E...WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 20-25KT. THE
RIDGE WILL WEAKEN TUE AND GIVE WAY TO LOW PRES TROF PASSAGE TUE
NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...ANOTHER HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE S FROM HUDSON BAY
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WED/THU. WITH PRES GRADIENT ON THE WEAK
SIDE...WINDS TUE THRU THU SHOULD BE UNDER 15KT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME STRONGER WINDS ON WED AS THE HIGH BEGINS
RIDGING S INTO THE UPPER LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
507 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO SRN HUDSON BAY. TO THE SE...A MID LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH ITS BROAD CIRCULATION
EXTENDING BACK TO THE UPPER LAKES. TWO SHORTWAVES OF NOTE ARE
SWINGING W IN THE MID LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION ACROSS SE CANADA. THE
FIRST IS S OF JAMES BAY AND THE SECOND IS N OF MAINE. AT THE SFC...
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS SUPPORTING HIGH PRES RIDGING S FROM HUDSON
BAY INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UNDER DRY AIR MASS PER 00Z
REGIONAL SOUNDINGS...CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FCST
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. TO THE NE...FIRST SHORTWAVE S OF JAMES IS
HELPING TO SPREAD SCT-BKN CLOUDS TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE S OF JAMES BAY WILL ROTATE INTO NRN LWR MI THIS
AFTN/EVENING...SPREADING SOME CLOUDINESS INTO THE ERN FCST AREA
TODAY. TRENDS IN THE MODELS SHOW A BACKING OFF ON THE POTENTIAL
CLOUD COVER WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON OVERNIGHT SATELLITE
IMAGERY. FCST THUS REFLECTS A MORE OPTIMISTIC SKY CONDITION FOR
CNTRL UPPER MI TODAY. MAY STILL SEE SOME PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS OVER THE ERN FCST AREA THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY LATE. AS
FOR TEMPS...RATHER BRISK GRADIENT FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL HOLD
TEMPS TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. MOST LAKESIDE
LOCATIONS FROM THE KEWEENAW EASTWARD WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 30S.
WELL INLAND...NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS AND PROJECTED MIXING HEIGHTS
SUGGEST HIGH TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 50F. THERE MAY BE SOME LWR
50S TOWARD THE MI/WI BORDER FROM MENOMINEE COUNTY TO IRON COUNTY.
TONIGHT...SECOND SHORTWAVE NOW N OF MAINE WILL FOLLOW THE SAME TRACK
AS THE FIRST AND SHOULD REACH NRN LWR MI LATE TONIGHT. MODELS ARE
AGGRESSIVE IN SWINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO UPPER MI TONIGHT WITH THIS
FEATURE. OF PARTICULAR NOTE IS THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THE NAM/GFS
SHOW. LOOKING TO THE NE...LOW CIGS ARE NOTED IN AND AROUND JAMES BAY
AND EASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH THIS MOISTURE PUSHING SW INTO
THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT WHEN DAYTIME HEATING IS ABSENT TO HELP
LIFT OR MIX MOISTURE OUT...IT LOOKS FAIRLY LIKELY THAT LOW CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP/EXPAND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY LATE...OVER AT LEAST THE
NCNTRL AND E...AIDED BY UPSLOPE FLOW. NAM FCST SOUNDINGS EVEN
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME -DZ/-FZDZ WHERE STRONGEST UPSLOPE
OCCURS. WILL BE SOMETHING TO TAKE A LOOK AT AGAIN IN LATER MODEL
RUNS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH SUN NIGHT WILL LEAD TO CLOUD COVER EARLY
MON OVER ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL AND ERN CWA. THE CLOUD COVER WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH AS THE SFC RIDGE MOVES BACK IN FROM THE W AS WELL AS
THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER RIDGE. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME
LIGHT DRIZZLE IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF NCENTRAL UPPER MI...BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. INTERIOR W SHOULD SEE HIGHS
APPROACH 60F ON MON...WHILE LAKESHORE AND ERN AREAS ARE QUITE A BIT
COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE UPPER 40S.
A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE TUE
EVENING AND AGAIN ON WED...WITH MODELS CURRENTLY SHOWING THE
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ON WED. MODELS HAVE NOT SHOWN GOOD CONTINUITY
WITH THESE FEATURES...SO CONFIDENCE IN EXACT DETAILS IS LOW.
HOWEVER...MODEL DO GENERALLY AGREE THAT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED
ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP FROM OCCURING. TUE WILL BE
WARMER THAN MON WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S AS THE AIRMASS WILL BE
WARMER AND THE SHORTWAVE/CLOUD COVER DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER IN
THE DAY. WED COULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT COOLER AIRMASS DEPENDING ON
DETAILS WITH THE SHORTWAVE...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE
40S TO MID 50S.
UPPER RIDGING REPLACES THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY THU INTO FRI. MODELS
HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH CONTINUITY IN THE STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE...LIMITED CONFIDENCE SOME. HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE 50S TO
MID 60S...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S ON
FRI. MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND DISCONTINUITY CERTAINLY CONTINUE AND
INCREASE ON SAT AS MODELS VARY VASTLY IN THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT
OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER CENTRAL CANADA. MODELS SHOW SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE CWA WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH LATE
FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WHICH COULD PRODUCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA.
WILL CONTINUE SHOWING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.
ADDITIONAL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS /ALSO TIED TO UNCERTAINTIES
WITH THE CENTRAL CANADA ENERGY/ WITH TEMPS ON SAT. THE 12Z/25 ECMWF
BRINGS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE TO JUST W OF THE CWA BY 00Z SUN
WHILE THE 00Z/26 GFS HAS AN UPPER TROUGH WHERE THE ECMWF HAS THE
RIDGE. AIRMASS WILL BE A LOT WARMER UNDER THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH
850MB TEMPS OF 12C BY 00Z SUN WHILE THE GFS IS AT 8C. WHILE
POTENTIAL FOR MUCH WARMER TEMPS EXISTS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH A CONSENSUS APPROACH WITH HIGHS INT HE 60S AND 70S
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT WEST OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW AT ALL THREE TAF SITES UNDER VFR
CONDITIONS. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP UNDER THE LOW LEVEL NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW EARLY THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE DAY AT KSAW AND MAYBE KCMX. SINCE THE LOW
CLOUDS IN NORTHERN ONTARIO HAVE STRUGGLED TO EXPAND THUS FAR AND
MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER...OPTED TO BACK AWAY FROM THE MVFR CEILINGS
AT KSAW FOR EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE STILL
KEPT SCT CLOUDS FOR THAT PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING S THRU WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY THRU
MON...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...MOSTLY UNDER
15KT. OVER THE E...WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 20-25KT. THE
RIDGE WILL WEAKEN TUE AND GIVE WAY TO LOW PRES TROF PASSAGE TUE
NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...ANOTHER HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE S FROM HUDSON BAY
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WED/THU. WITH PRES GRADIENT ON THE WEAK
SIDE...WINDS TUE THRU THU SHOULD BE UNDER 15KT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME STRONGER WINDS ON WED AS THE HIGH BEGINS
RIDGING S INTO THE UPPER LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1115 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
A VERY PLEASANT DAY IS AHEAD WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING
STEADY FROM WESTERN ONTARIO THROUGH MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. THE
SKY WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TODAY AS WELL AS TONIGHT ALONG WITH A
LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SIMILAR
THOSE ON SATURDAY WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FORECAST...WHICH IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE SEASONAL NORMAL. THE FORECAST HIGHS TODAY LINE
UP WELL WITH MIX-DOWN FROM THE NAM AT 825MB ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
SUPER.
THE REAL CHALLENGE TODAY IS HOW LOW WILL DEW POINTS DROP...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL MN...AND THE CORRESPONDING AFTERNOON
MINIMUM HUMIDITY. THE LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW BROUGHT DEW POINTS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS INTO NORTHEAST MN SATURDAY
EVENING. DEW POINTS NEAR 20 DEGREES ARE NOW PREVALENT ACROSS
CENTRAL MN EARLY THIS MORNING. THE NAM AND RAP HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE SITUATION AND LOWER DEW POINTS TO NEAR 15 DEGREES ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON WITH AROUND 20 HERE IN THE TWIN
CITIES AND WEST CENTRAL WI. THIS RESULTS IN NEAR 15 PERCENT
MINIMUM HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL MN WITH 20
PERCENT HERE IN THE CITIES AND WEST CENTRAL WI. SOUTHERN AREAS OF
MN BOTTOM OUT AROUND 25 PERCENT. FORTUNATELY...THE NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON
KEEPING THE FIRE THREAT MAINLY IN THE LIMITED RANGE WITH ELEVATED
INDICATED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
MILD TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TAP FOR NEXT WEEK...WITH TWO
MOISTURE STARVED FRONTS TRAVERSING THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
THE TROUBLE MAKER FOR MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED CONTINUES
TO BE THE EVOLUTION OF THE DEEP CLOSED H5 LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND NEXT
WEEK. MODEL AGREEMENT IS NOT REALLY ALL THAT BAD UNTIL WE GET TO
THURSDAY...WHEN THE GFS STARTS TO BECOME MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
PUSHING THIS LOW OUT INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC...WHICH ALLOWS IT TO
BECOME CONSIDERABLY MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GEM/ECMWF WITH THE
FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS TO END THE WORK WORK GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
FOR MODEL PREFERENCES...WENT WITH A FAIRLY EQUAL BLEND THROUGH
THURSDAY...LEANING MORE TOWARD THE LESS PROGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTION
FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THE LONG TERM WILL START OFF WITH A PICTURE PERFECT DAY ON
MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...SUNNY SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. MONDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
NORTHERN MN...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA AS WELL.
PRECIP POTENTIAL STILL DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT GREAT FOR THIS
FRONT...WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS KEEPING ANY MEANINGFUL
MOISTURE WELL OF TO OUR SOUTH...WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
LOOKING WEAK AS WELL. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE AND THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP IT GENERATES AND
CONTINUED THE TREND OF FAVORING A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THIS
FRONT...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS MENTIONED.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL FEATURE ANOTHER DRY RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO BLENDED FORECAST HERE
WAS TO LOWER DEWPOINTS SOME BOTH DAYS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MIXING
POTENTIAL. ALSO BLENDED IN SOME BIAS CORRECTED NUMBERS INTO THE
HIGHS BOTH DAYS TO BOOST THEM BY A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY...WITH
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED FOR WED/THU.
NEXT ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED COMES FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THE NEW ENGLAND
H5 LOW MENTIONED IN THE SECOND PARAGRAPH...THE GFS IS QUITE A BIT
FASTER WITH BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH THAN THE ECMWF. THIS SPREAD IN
THE FRONTS TIMING EXPLAINS THE NICE SMEARING OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONT DOES HAVE A COUPLE OF FACTORS
THAT CAN GIVE ONE A LITTLE BIT MORE HOPE FOR SEEING PRECIP WITH THIS
BOUNDARY AS OPPOSED TO THE ONE FOR MONDAY NIGHT. NUMBER ONE...THERE
WILL BE NO UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS INTERCEPTING MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTH. ALSO MAKING THE PRECIP POTENTIAL LOOK SLIGHTLY BETTER IS THAT
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE LOOKS BETTER ON FRIDAY AND THIS FRONT
ACTUALLY HAS SOME H85 FLOW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT OUT AHEAD OF IT.
STILL...THE AIRMASS IT WILL BE DISPLACING AGAIN LOOKS INCREDIBLY DRY
AND WITH INSTABILITY LACKING...ANYTHING WE DO SEE LOOKS PRETTY LIGHT
AT THIS POINT.
AS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS NEXT WEEK...HUMIDITIES EACH AFTERNOON
LOOK TO GET DOWN INTO THE 20S/30S. WINDS STILL LOOK LIGHT THOUGH
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT THURSDAY AND FRI WILL FEATURE STRONGER WINDS
AND IF THE MOISTURE RETURN ENDS UP BEING RATHER LACKING...WE COULD
HAVE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN. AT THIS POINT...THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE DAY THAT HAS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL TO GENERATE RED
FLAG CONDITIONS AS OUR SE WINDS WILL BE EMANATING FROM A VERY DRY
SFC RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES....WHILE FRIDAY AT THIS
POINT LOOKS TO FEATURE HIGHER DEWPS WITH THE PASSING FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
VFR/SKC THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST
ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES. LIGHT NE WINDS BECOMING SE OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF HE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
KMSP..
WIND IS THE ONLY PROBLEM THIS PERIOD. SHOULD SEE A MORE NE
COMPONENT DEVELOP WITH MIX THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN LIGHT NORTH
INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON NIGHT...VFR. WINDS N 5 KTS.
TUE...VFR. SLGT CHC OF MRNG -SHRA. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND N 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...DWE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
630 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
A VERY PLEASANT DAY IS AHEAD WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING
STEADY FROM WESTERN ONTARIO THROUGH MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. THE
SKY WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TODAY AS WELL AS TONIGHT ALONG WITH A
LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SIMILAR
THOSE ON SATURDAY WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FORECAST...WHICH IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE SEASONAL NORMAL. THE FORECAST HIGHS TODAY LINE
UP WELL WITH MIX-DOWN FROM THE NAM AT 825MB ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
SUPER.
THE REAL CHALLENGE TODAY IS HOW LOW WILL DEW POINTS DROP...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL MN...AND THE CORRESPONDING AFTERNOON
MINIMUM HUMIDITY. THE LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW BROUGHT DEW POINTS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS INTO NORTHEAST MN SATURDAY
EVENING. DEW POINTS NEAR 20 DEGREES ARE NOW PREVALENT ACROSS
CENTRAL MN EARLY THIS MORNING. THE NAM AND RAP HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE SITUATION AND LOWER DEW POINTS TO NEAR 15 DEGREES ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON WITH AROUND 20 HERE IN THE TWIN
CITIES AND WEST CENTRAL WI. THIS RESULTS IN NEAR 15 PERCENT
MINIMUM HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL MN WITH 20
PERCENT HERE IN THE CITIES AND WEST CENTRAL WI. SOUTHERN AREAS OF
MN BOTTOM OUT AROUND 25 PERCENT. FORTUNATELY...THE NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON
KEEPING THE FIRE THREAT MAINLY IN THE LIMITED RANGE WITH ELEVATED
INDICATED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
MILD TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TAP FOR NEXT WEEK...WITH TWO
MOISTURE STARVED FRONTS TRAVERSING THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
THE TROUBLE MAKER FOR MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED CONTINUES
TO BE THE EVOLUTION OF THE DEEP CLOSED H5 LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND NEXT
WEEK. MODEL AGREEMENT IS NOT REALLY ALL THAT BAD UNTIL WE GET TO
THURSDAY...WHEN THE GFS STARTS TO BECOME MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
PUSHING THIS LOW OUT INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC...WHICH ALLOWS IT TO
BECOME CONSIDERABLY MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GEM/ECMWF WITH THE
FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS TO END THE WORK WORK GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
FOR MODEL PREFERENCES...WENT WITH A FAIRLY EQUAL BLEND THROUGH
THURSDAY...LEANING MORE TOWARD THE LESS PROGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTION
FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THE LONG TERM WILL START OFF WITH A PICTURE PERFECT DAY ON
MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...SUNNY SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. MONDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
NORTHERN MN...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA AS WELL.
PRECIP POTENTIAL STILL DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT GREAT FOR THIS
FRONT...WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS KEEPING ANY MEANINGFUL
MOISTURE WELL OF TO OUR SOUTH...WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
LOOKING WEAK AS WELL. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE AND THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP IT GENERATES AND
CONTINUED THE TREND OF FAVORING A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THIS
FRONT...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS MENTIONED.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL FEATURE ANOTHER DRY RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO BLENDED FORECAST HERE
WAS TO LOWER DEWPOINTS SOME BOTH DAYS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MIXING
POTENTIAL. ALSO BLENDED IN SOME BIAS CORRECTED NUMBERS INTO THE
HIGHS BOTH DAYS TO BOOST THEM BY A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY...WITH
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED FOR WED/THU.
NEXT ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED COMES FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THE NEW ENGLAND
H5 LOW MENTIONED IN THE SECOND PARAGRAPH...THE GFS IS QUITE A BIT
FASTER WITH BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH THAN THE ECMWF. THIS SPREAD IN
THE FRONTS TIMING EXPLAINS THE NICE SMEARING OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONT DOES HAVE A COUPLE OF FACTORS
THAT CAN GIVE ONE A LITTLE BIT MORE HOPE FOR SEEING PRECIP WITH THIS
BOUNDARY AS OPPOSED TO THE ONE FOR MONDAY NIGHT. NUMBER ONE...THERE
WILL BE NO UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS INTERCEPTING MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTH. ALSO MAKING THE PRECIP POTENTIAL LOOK SLIGHTLY BETTER IS THAT
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE LOOKS BETTER ON FRIDAY AND THIS FRONT
ACTUALLY HAS SOME H85 FLOW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT OUT AHEAD OF IT.
STILL...THE AIRMASS IT WILL BE DISPLACING AGAIN LOOKS INCREDIBLY DRY
AND WITH INSTABILITY LACKING...ANYTHING WE DO SEE LOOKS PRETTY LIGHT
AT THIS POINT.
AS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS NEXT WEEK...HUMIDITIES EACH AFTERNOON
LOOK TO GET DOWN INTO THE 20S/30S. WINDS STILL LOOK LIGHT THOUGH
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT THURSDAY AND FRI WILL FEATURE STRONGER WINDS
AND IF THE MOISTURE RETURN ENDS UP BEING RATHER LACKING...WE COULD
HAVE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN. AT THIS POINT...THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE DAY THAT HAS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL TO GENERATE RED
FLAG CONDITIONS AS OUR SE WINDS WILL BE EMANATING FROM A VERY DRY
SFC RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES....WHILE FRIDAY AT THIS
POINT LOOKS TO FEATURE HIGHER DEWPS WITH THE PASSING FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
VFR/SKC THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES
ACROSS MN/WI FROM ONTARIO. NORTHERLY WINDS 5-8 KTS TODAY ACROSS
EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI WITH EASTERLY WINDS 5-8 KTS ACROSS
WESTERN MN.
KMSP..FEW CONCERNS THIS TAF CYCLE AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS. THE
WIND WILL MEANDER AROUND SOME THIS MORNING FROM 050 TO 080 AT 5
KTS OR LESS THEN BECOME MORE 030 AT 8 KTS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS N 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. SLGT CHC OF MRNG -SHRA. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND N 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
350 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
A VERY PLEASANT DAY IS AHEAD WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING
STEADY FROM WESTERN ONTARIO THROUGH MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. THE
SKY WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TODAY AS WELL AS TONIGHT ALONG WITH A
LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SIMILAR
THOSE ON SATURDAY WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FORECAST...WHICH IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE SEASONAL NORMAL. THE FORECAST HIGHS TODAY LINE
UP WELL WITH MIX-DOWN FROM THE NAM AT 825MB ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
SUPER.
THE REAL CHALLENGE TODAY IS HOW LOW WILL DEW POINTS DROP...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL MN...AND THE CORRESPONDING AFTERNOON
MINIMUM HUMIDITY. THE LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW BROUGHT DEW POINTS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS INTO NORTHEAST MN SATURDAY
EVENING. DEW POINTS NEAR 20 DEGREES ARE NOW PREVALENT ACROSS
CENTRAL MN EARLY THIS MORNING. THE NAM AND RAP HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE SITUATION AND LOWER DEW POINTS TO NEAR 15 DEGREES ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON WITH AROUND 20 HERE IN THE TWIN
CITIES AND WEST CENTRAL WI. THIS RESULTS IN NEAR 15 PERCENT
MINIMUM HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL MN WITH 20
PERCENT HERE IN THE CITIES AND WEST CENTRAL WI. SOUTHERN AREAS OF
MN BOTTOM OUT AROUND 25 PERCENT. FORTUNATELY...THE NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON
KEEPING THE FIRE THREAT MAINLY IN THE LIMITED RANGE WITH ELEVATED
INDICATED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
MILD TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TAP FOR NEXT WEEK...WITH TWO
MOISTURE STARVED FRONTS TRAVERSING THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
THE TROUBLE MAKER FOR MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED CONTINUES
TO BE THE EVOLUTION OF THE DEEP CLOSED H5 LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND NEXT
WEEK. MODEL AGREEMENT IS NOT REALLY ALL THAT BAD UNTIL WE GET TO
THURSDAY...WHEN THE GFS STARTS TO BECOME MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
PUSHING THIS LOW OUT INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC...WHICH ALLOWS IT TO
BECOME CONSIDERABLY MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GEM/ECMWF WITH THE
FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS TO END THE WORK WORK GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
FOR MODEL PREFERENCES...WENT WITH A FAIRLY EQUAL BLEND THROUGH
THURSDAY...LEANING MORE TOWARD THE LESS PROGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTION
FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THE LONG TERM WILL START OFF WITH A PICTURE PERFECT DAY ON
MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...SUNNY SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. MONDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
NORTHERN MN...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA AS WELL.
PRECIP POTENTIAL STILL DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT GREAT FOR THIS
FRONT...WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS KEEPING ANY MEANINGFUL
MOISTURE WELL OF TO OUR SOUTH...WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
LOOKING WEAK AS WELL. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE AND THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP IT GENERATES AND
CONTINUED THE TREND OF FAVORING A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THIS
FRONT...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS MENTIONED.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL FEATURE ANOTHER DRY RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO BLENDED FORECAST HERE
WAS TO LOWER DEWPOINTS SOME BOTH DAYS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MIXING
POTENTIAL. ALSO BLENDED IN SOME BIAS CORRECTED NUMBERS INTO THE
HIGHS BOTH DAYS TO BOOST THEM BY A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY...WITH
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED FOR WED/THU.
NEXT ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED COMES FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THE NEW ENGLAND
H5 LOW MENTIONED IN THE SECOND PARAGRAPH...THE GFS IS QUITE A BIT
FASTER WITH BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH THAN THE ECMWF. THIS SPREAD IN
THE FRONTS TIMING EXPLAINS THE NICE SMEARING OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONT DOES HAVE A COUPLE OF FACTORS
THAT CAN GIVE ONE A LITTLE BIT MORE HOPE FOR SEEING PRECIP WITH THIS
BOUNDARY AS OPPOSED TO THE ONE FOR MONDAY NIGHT. NUMBER ONE...THERE
WILL BE NO UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS INTERCEPTING MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTH. ALSO MAKING THE PRECIP POTENTIAL LOOK SLIGHTLY BETTER IS THAT
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE LOOKS BETTER ON FRIDAY AND THIS FRONT
ACTUALLY HAS SOME H85 FLOW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT OUT AHEAD OF IT.
STILL...THE AIRMASS IT WILL BE DISPLACING AGAIN LOOKS INCREDIBLY DRY
AND WITH INSTABILITY LACKING...ANYTHING WE DO SEE LOOKS PRETTY LIGHT
AT THIS POINT.
AS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS NEXT WEEK...HUMIDITIES EACH AFTERNOON
LOOK TO GET DOWN INTO THE 20S/30S. WINDS STILL LOOK LIGHT THOUGH
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT THURSDAY AND FRI WILL FEATURE STRONGER WINDS
AND IF THE MOISTURE RETURN ENDS UP BEING RATHER LACKING...WE COULD
HAVE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN. AT THIS POINT...THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE DAY THAT HAS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL TO GENERATE RED
FLAG CONDITIONS AS OUR SE WINDS WILL BE EMANATING FROM A VERY DRY
SFC RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES....WHILE FRIDAY AT THIS
POINT LOOKS TO FEATURE HIGHER DEWPS WITH THE PASSING FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
VFR CONDS THROUGHOUT THIS TAF SET. SKC CONDS WILL PREVAIL THRU
TMRW EVE. E TO NE WINDS WILL SETTLE CLOSE TO 5 KT OVERNIGHT THEN
INCRS TO THE 5-10 KT RANGE DURG THE DAY TMRW.
KMSP...NO SIGNIFICANT WX IMPACTS EXPECTED THIS TAF SET.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS NNE 5-10 KT.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KT.
WED...VFR. WIND N 5-10 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1051 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BEFORE A STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA MID WEEK. SEASONABLE AND
DRY HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT IS VERY WELL DEFINED IN BOTH
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...AS WELL AS SURFACE OBS. FRONT IS
STILL CREEPING SOUTHWARD AND IS JUST SOUTH OF A LINE ROUGHLY FROM
OAK ISLAND TO FLORENCE SC. A THICK BLANKET OF STRATUS FOLLOWS
NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH NO PRECIP PRESENT. FOR THIS MORNING...HAVE
DROPPED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGHOUT AND CHANGED CHARACTER OF
PRECIPITATION TO RAIN/DRIZZLE. THIS IS BASED ON AN ANALYSIS OF THE
LATEST DATA...WHICH SHOWS A VERY STABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE OF ANY CONVECTION REMAINS OVER OUR
SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING
WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHEST AND CLOUD COVER WILL NOT BE
COMPLETELY OVERCAST. EVEN THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE A LOW-END
PROBABILITY THOUGH. WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT TEMPS FOR TODAY WITH
AN EYE TOWARDS LOWERING THEM BY A CATEGORY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS:
TODAY A MIXED BAG OF WEATHER FEATURES RANGING FROM FOG TO SHOWERS
TO A FEW AFTERNOON TSTMS TO A MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL OF
NEARLY 20 DEGREES FROM THE NORTHERN INTERIOR OF SE NC TO SOUTHERN
INLAND SC. NIGHT-TIME IMAGERY SHOWS WELL THE POST-FRONTAL STRATUS
NORTH OF AN E TO W COLD FRONT WHICH PRESENTLY BI-SECTS OUR AREA.
THIS FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH AFTERNOON. STRONG LATE APRIL
SUN WILL HEAT THE LOW- LEVELS OVER INLAND SC IN CONJUNCTION WITH
LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IN THE NEAR PEAK OF DIURNAL
WARMING...SPARKING A CHANCE AT TSTMS. ALTHOUGH DRY WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE VERTICAL GROWTH OF CELLS...DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT AND SWIFT SEAWARD MOTION COULD BRING POTENTIALLY GUSTY
WINDS TO SEVERE LIMITS...AND SPC PAINTS A MARGINAL RISK OF STORMS
OVER SC.
DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR FROM THE NORTH WINS OUT LATER TONIGHT AS TD
VALUES DROP...WITH POST FRONTAL COOL AIR ADVECTION STABILIZING
THE LOW-LEVELS AS WELL. POP VALUES DWINDLE AND PARTIAL CLEARING
WILL TREND INTO EARLY MONDAY. RELATIVELY COOL MINIMUMS MONDAY OF
UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOW TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH...AND THE BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN
INTO THE CAROLINAS MONDAY AS A DEEP MID TO UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST
OF NEW ENGLAND RETROGRADES BACK TOWARD THE WEST SOUTHWEST BEFORE
PULLING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE TUES. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS
EARLY MONDAY WILL BE SCOURED OUT BY A DEEP NW FLOW OF DRY AND
RELATIVELY COOLER AIR OVER THE AREA HOLDING ON THROUGH TUES. PCP
WATER VALUES REMAIN DOWN CLOSE TO A HALF INCH MON AFTN THROUGH
TUES AFTN. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO OFFSET THE CAA WITH 850
TEMPS HOLD AROUND 4 TO 5 C THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL EXPECT
LARGE DIURNAL SWINGS IN TEMPS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING DOWN
BELOW 50 IN MANY SPOTS ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY TUES NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL MAKE A RUN BACK TOWARD NORMAL BUT WILL FALL SHORT AFTER
SUCH A COOL START TO THE DAY.
CLOUDS WILL START INCREASING BY TUES NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES SPREADING
CLOUDS AND PCP NORTHWARD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY....LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RIDE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES ON WED. A SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE DOWN FROM THE UPPER
MID WEST AMPLIFYING THE H5 TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE EAST
COAST REACHING DOWN INTO THE GULF. THIS SHOULD GUIDE THE LOW UP
THE SOUTHEAST COAST POSSIBLY MOVING DIRECTLY OVER THE CAPE FEAR
COAST WED NIGHT INTO THURS MORNING. N-NE FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS
WILL BE OVERRUN BY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT PRODUCING INCREASING
CLOUDS AND PCP OVER THE AREA ON WED INTO THURS. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BUT DEEP MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER
THROUGH FRI. WILL SEE COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH LINGERING CLOUDS
AND CHC OF PCP IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURS AND SOME CLOUDS
THROUGH FRI AS THIS DEEP LOW FINALLY MAKES ITS WAY OFF TO THE
EAST. SHOULD SEE A WARMING AND DRYING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND AS
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA. TO THE NORTH
OF THE FRONT...EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS SOUTH OF
THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY...MAINLY BASED
ON THE HRRR MODEL. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH THE FRONT OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. MAY BE A BIT TOO PESSIMISTIC THIS EVENING AND WILL ADJUST ON
THE NEXT SET.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM SUNDAY...HAVE DROPPED SCEC HEADLINES WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE AS SEAS ARE NOW IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE WITH WINDS OF 10 TO
15 KTS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
BLUSTERY OFFSHORE WINDS TO PREVAIL THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AND
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. SEAS RUNNING 4-5 FT THIS MORNING AND AN
EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...CURRENTLY SET TO EXPIRE AT NOON. DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN
MAY REDUCE VSBYS 4NM OR LESS THIS MORNING N OF CAPE FEAR. HEATING
OVER INLAND SC THIS AFTERNOON COULD BRING A FEW STORMS OVER THE SC
WATERS...POTENTIALLY BRING GUSTY WINDS AND SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS
MAY BE NEEDED OVER SC LATER TODAY. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THIS
AFTERNOON AS NW WINDS ABATE...BUT COULD KICK UP AGAIN TONIGHT AS N
WINDS INCREASE A BIT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH
MON WITH DECENT SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS AS SHORTWAVE ROTATES
AROUND MID TO UPPER TROUGH EXITING SLOWLY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER AROUND BECOMING MORE ON SHORE BY
TUES NIGHT AROUND LOW PRESSURE AS IT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE
GULF COAST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT
MOST OF THE TIME BUT MAY REACH UP TO 5 FT IN NORTHERLY SURGE MON
NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS WAY UP THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD POSSIBLY TRACKING RIGHT ACROSS
THE WATERS FROM SW TO NE WED NIGHT INTO THURS. WINDS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW BUT FOR NOW WILL
KEEP NORTHERLY FLOW OVER MOST OF LOCAL WATERS INCREASING UP TO 15
TO 20 KTS LATE WED WITH A STRONG E-SE SWELL ON FRONT END OF SYSTEM
POSSIBLY DRIVING SEAS UP TOWARD SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH WED NIGHT.
SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET TO START WITH SPIKE WED NIGHT INTO THURS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/RGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
642 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BEFORE A STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA MID WEEK. SEASONABLE AND
DRY HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 628 AM SUNDAY...TODAY A MIXED BAG OF WEATHER FEATURES
RANGING FROM FOG TO SHOWERS TO A FEW AFTERNOON TSTMS TO A MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL OF NEARLY 20 DEGREES FROM THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR OF SE NC TO SOUTHERN INLAND SC. NIGHT-TIME IMAGERY SHOWS
WELL THE POST-FRONTAL STRATUS NORTH OF AN E TO W COLD FRONT WHICH
PRESENTLY BI-SECTS OUR AREA. THIS FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH
AFTERNOON. STRONG LATE APRIL SUN WILL HEAT THE LOW- LEVELS OVER
INLAND SC IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IN THE
NEAR PEAK OF DIURNAL WARMING...SPARKING A CHANCE AT TSTMS.
ALTHOUGH DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE VERTICAL GROWTH OF
CELLS...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND SWIFT SEAWARD MOTION COULD BRING
POTENTIALLY GUSTY WINDS TO SEVERE LIMITS...AND SPC PAINTS A
MARGINAL RISK OF STORMS OVER SC.
DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR FROM THE NORTH WINS OUT LATER TONIGHT AS TD
VALUES DROP...WITH POST FRONTAL COOL AIR ADVECTION STABILIZING
THE LOW-LEVELS AS WELL. POP VALUES DWINDLE AND PARTIAL CLEARING
WILL TREND INTO EARLY MONDAY. RELATIVELY COOL MINIMUMS MONDAY OF
UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOW TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH...AND THE BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN
INTO THE CAROLINAS MONDAY AS A DEEP MID TO UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST
OF NEW ENGLAND RETROGRADES BACK TOWARD THE WEST SOUTHWEST BEFORE
PULLING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE TUES. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS
EARLY MONDAY WILL BE SCOURED OUT BY A DEEP NW FLOW OF DRY AND
RELATIVELY COOLER AIR OVER THE AREA HOLDING ON THROUGH TUES. PCP
WATER VALUES REMAIN DOWN CLOSE TO A HALF INCH MON AFTN THROUGH
TUES AFTN. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO OFFSET THE CAA WITH 850
TEMPS HOLD AROUND 4 TO 5 C THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL EXPECT
LARGE DIURNAL SWINGS IN TEMPS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING DOWN
BELOW 50 IN MANY SPOTS ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY TUES NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL MAKE A RUN BACK TOWARD NORMAL BUT WILL FALL SHORT AFTER
SUCH A COOL START TO THE DAY.
CLOUDS WILL START INCREASING BY TUES NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES SPREADING
CLOUDS AND PCP NORTHWARD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY....LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RIDE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES ON WED. A SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE DOWN FROM THE UPPER
MID WEST AMPLIFYING THE H5 TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE EAST
COAST REACHING DOWN INTO THE GULF. THIS SHOULD GUIDE THE LOW UP
THE SOUTHEAST COAST POSSIBLY MOVING DIRECTLY OVER THE CAPE FEAR
COAST WED NIGHT INTO THURS MORNING. N-NE FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS
WILL BE OVERRUN BY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT PRODUCING INCREASING
CLOUDS AND PCP OVER THE AREA ON WED INTO THURS. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BUT DEEP MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER
THROUGH FRI. WILL SEE COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH LINGERING CLOUDS
AND CHC OF PCP IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURS AND SOME CLOUDS
THROUGH FRI AS THIS DEEP LOW FINALLY MAKES ITS WAY OFF TO THE
EAST. SHOULD SEE A WARMING AND DRYING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND AS
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA. TO THE NORTH
OF THE FRONT...EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS SOUTH OF
THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY...MAINLY BASED
ON THE HRRR MODEL. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH THE FRONT OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. MAY BE A BIT TOO PESSIMISTIC THIS EVENING AND WILL ADJUST ON
THE NEXT SET.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 628 AM SUNDAY...BLUSTERY OFFSHORE WINDS TO PREVAIL THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT. SEAS RUNNING 4-5 FT THIS
MORNING AND AN EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING...CURRENTLY SET TO EXPIRE AT NOON. DRIZZLE OR
LIGHT RAIN MAY REDUCE VSBYS 4NM OR LESS THIS MORNING N OF CAPE
FEAR. HEATING OVER INLAND SC THIS AFTERNOON COULD BRING A FEW
STORMS OVER THE SC WATERS...POTENTIALLY BRING GUSTY WINDS AND
SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED OVER SC LATER TODAY. SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON AS NW WINDS ABATE...BUT COULD KICK UP
AGAIN TONIGHT AS N WINDS INCREASE A BIT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH
MON WITH DECENT SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS AS SHORTWAVE ROTATES
AROUND MID TO UPPER TROUGH EXITING SLOWLY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER AROUND BECOMING MORE ON SHORE BY
TUES NIGHT AROUND LOW PRESSURE AS IT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE
GULF COAST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT
MOST OF THE TIME BUT MAY REACH UP TO 5 FT IN NORTHERLY SURGE MON
NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS WAY UP THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD POSSIBLY TRACKING RIGHT ACROSS
THE WATERS FROM SW TO NE WED NIGHT INTO THURS. WINDS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW BUT FOR NOW WILL
KEEP NORTHERLY FLOW OVER MOST OF LOCAL WATERS INCREASING UP TO 15
TO 20 KTS LATE WED WITH A STRONG E-SE SWELL ON FRONT END OF SYSTEM
POSSIBLY DRIVING SEAS UP TOWARD SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH WED NIGHT.
SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET TO START WITH SPIKE WED NIGHT INTO THURS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1258 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT THEN OFFSHORE SUNDAY...PULLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION DURING
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1255 AM SUNDAY...SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OFF OF THE COAST AS OF
0445Z AND NOW THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION UNTIL
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WILL LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND CALL
FOR PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER.
PATCHES OF FOG ARE ALSO EXPECTED BUT NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT. UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER EASTERN TN/KY AND
SOUTHWEST VA IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN OF EASTERN
NC AROUND 10Z SUNDAY. WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY MOST ZONES
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BASED ON LATEST HRRR RUN AND CONSENSUS OF
THE 00Z GFS/NAM MODELS. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF OF THE NC LATE
TONIGHT WILL REINFORCE THE HIGH PRES WEDGE EAST OF THE MTNS WITH
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPS MAY FALL A
FEW DEGS FROM CURRENT LEVELS WITH LOWS FROM AROUND 50 N TO UPR 50S
S EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...LOW PRES DEEPENING OFFSHORE WILL PULL COLD
FRONT THROUGH AREA FROM N BY EARLY AFTN...AND MODELS INDICATE
WDPSRD LIGHT QPF THREAT 12Z-18Z. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY MOST OF
AREA FOR MORNING. CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL HOLD TEMPS TO UPR 50S NRN
SECTIONS WHILE SRN SECTIONS MAY REACH UPR 60S BEFORE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NW SUN NIGHT INTO WED...WHILE SFC LOW PUSHES ENE OFF THE
NC COAST SUN NIGHT AND MON. PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY SUN
EVENING AS LOW PUSHES FURTHER OFF THE COAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 60S THROUGH THU...AND LOWS IN THE
LOW/MID 40S TO MID 50S. VERT STACKED LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE NE US
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...GRADUALLY
RETROGRADING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH MID-WEEK. PIECES
OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW
AND TROUGH MON AND TUE. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS MON AND TUE...THOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER GIVEN THE IMPULSES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT.
LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE MID TO LATE WEEK...AND BELOW
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONTINUES. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TUE...THEN MOVE UP THE SE COAST
WED INTO THU. ECMWF CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A MUCH STRONGER
LOW...BOMBING OUT OFF THE NC COAST. WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A MUCH
WEAKER LOW...KEEPING IT SUPPRESSED FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OF NC OFF
THE SE COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW TRENDS OF PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND WPC...WITH A WEAK LOW MOVING OFF THE COAST LATE WED INTO
THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CAP POPS AT 50 PERCENT WED AND THU
GIVEN THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY. ADDITIONAL IMPACTS COULD BE FELT
ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEEK...DEPENDENT ON EVENTUAL TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE LOW.
TEMPS GRADUALLY MODERATE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ASOF 1255 AM SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING
INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A STALLED FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND REINFORCE THE
HIGH PRES WEDGE PATTERN INLAND. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE IFR
RANGE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THEN LIFT TO MVFR UNTIL
AROUND 00Z WHEN CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPPROVE TO VFR. SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WELL TO THE WEST LATE TONIGHT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES 11-15Z SUNDAY MORNING
OTHERWISE EXPECTING ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LINGER SUN NIGHT
GRADUALLY IMPROVING BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PRED VFR MON THROUGH
TUE NIGHT. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WED AND THU...WITH PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR POSSIBLE AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE
REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ALONG STALLED BNDRY OVER FAR SOUTHERN
WATERS LATE THIS EVENING MAINTAINING A LIGHT TO MODERATE NE/E FLOW
NORTH OF THE BNDRY. THE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST EARLY SUNDAY AND
GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD N TO S OVER WATERS AS LOW
DEEPENS OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. USED MODEL BLEND TOWARD WEAKER GFS AND
ECMWF...BUT WILL POST SCA FOR NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 25 KT LIKELY IN AFTN...AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 6 FT
LATE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS 15-25KT AND ELEVATED SEAS
4-7FT WILL START OFF THE PERIOD SUN NIGHT. SURGE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING MON MORNING WITH SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO 3-5FT BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW SUN
NIGHT THROUGH MID- WEEK. GRADIENT TIGHTENS MON NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUE...AND MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING NWLY SURGE 15-25KT WITH
SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6FT ON THE OUTER WATERS. PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY...MAINLY NORTH OF OCRACOKE.
LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE MID TO LATE WEEK...AND BELOW
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONTINUES. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TUE...THEN MOVE UP THE SE COAST
WED INTO THU. INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WED AND THU. ELY
FLOW BY WED AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO 10-20KT WED NIGHT WITH SEAS
2-4FT. STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED THU WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6FT.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOWER THAN AVERAGE FOR WED AND THU...BUT SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DEVELOP WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES
DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW PRESSURE.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EDT
MONDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR AMZ150-156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JME/BTC/JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/JBM/CQD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1139 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
NO CHANGES TO 10 PM UPDATE PLANNED. UPDATE FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION ONLY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOWS. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE
DOING WELL WITH INHERITED MINIMUM TEMP FCST SO HAVE USED RUC FOR
GUIDANCE ON WIND AND HOURLY TEMPS. ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY MADE AT 7 PM
WORKED OUT WELL SO NO FURTHER CHANGES EXPECTED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
FORECAST UPDATE WILL ADDRESS MINOR SKY ISSUES...WITH EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA CLEARING OUT A BIT MORE RAPIDLY THAN PREV FCST INDICATED.
WITH MID LVL DECK WELL OFF TO WEST...WILL DECREASE SKY OVER ERN ND
THROUGH THE NIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE PERIOD.
CLOUDS HAVE MOVED MOSTLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER AS DRIER AIR HAS
BEEN COMING IN FROM THE EAST UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME CU REDEVELOPMENT IN THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT FOR
THE MOST PART THE MINNESOTA SIDE HAS BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA STILL SOCKED IN WITH STRATUS. THE RAP
925-850MB RH FIELD HAS BEEN DOING DECENT WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...AND IT HAS THE HIGHER RH VALUES SLOWLY MOVING WEST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS COMING IN THROUGH
WESTERN ND AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
THINK THE CLOUDS AND WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE 40S WHILE THE EAST WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES...DROPPING DOWN BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. THE DRY
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO COME IN AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO
OUR NORTHEAST. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ENTERING CENTRAL ND...BUT ALL HAVE THE PRECIP ALONG THAT BOUNDARY
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES EAST. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVE THE DRY
ENVIRONMENT AND NOT MUCH UPPER FORCING...SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT
UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
TODAY WITH HIGHER CLOUDS AND A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MASS. KEPT
READINGS IN THE 60S.
SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS
INTO SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WITH THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO
THE FAR WESTERN CWA. THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...BUT IT WILL BE FIGHTING AGAINST
CONTINUED DRY AIR COMING IN FROM THE SFC HIGH TO THE EAST.
INCLUDED SOME SHOWERS GETTING INTO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT THINK THAT THE BULK OF PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES OVER NORTH AMERICA
WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK SFC TROUGH AXIS INTO THE CWA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME GOOD Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE FOR
RISING MOTION. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS HIGH THROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AXIS...WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED. LEANED TOWARDS THE DRIER GFS/NAM RATHER THAN THE
WETTER INTERNATIONAL MODELS GIVEN THE TENDENCY LATELY FOR
OVERDOING RAIN. WE SHOULD DRY OUT BY TUESDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S IN MOST
OF THE CWA BUT THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES COULD STAY IN THE 50S
WITH RAIN COMING IN EARLIER. MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
REGION.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. GEM NOT SHOWING AS STRONG A RIDGE AS
THE OUTLIER...SO FAVORED AN ECMWF/GFS BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST.
THUS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ON THE WARMER SIDE...WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY REACHING CLOSE TO THE MID 70S. OTHERWISE...THE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP DRY CONDS IN THE
AERODROMES FOR THE VALLEY AND SITES IN MINNESOTA. A LINE OF
SHOWERS OVER CNTRL ND MAY GET INTO DVL AREA TOMORROW EVENING...BUT
DRY AIR MASS WILL HELP HOLD THOSE SHOWERS BACK. PUT A MENTION
(VCSH) IN FOR TOMORROW EVENING AS CONFIDENCE OF ON STATION PRECIP
IS TOO LOW THIS FAR OUT. CIGS LIKELY WILL BE VFR OR UPPER MVFR
RANGE TOMORROW EVENING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...SPEICHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
913 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015
...UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
CONSISTENT CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE HRRR VALIDATE LEAVING THE
CURRENT HIGH POPS AS THEY ARE IN THE FORECAST. INTERESTINGLY... THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A FAIRLY STEEP GRADIENT OF POPS ALONG THE
NORTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS IS WELL REPRESENTED
IN THE CURRENT RADAR DATA AS DRY AIR MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH. ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS APPEAR TO REMAIN ON TRACK
AS WELL... SO WILL ONLY UPDATE THE ZFP TO IMPROVE THE WORDING AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NE OK W/ A BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEARER KMLC. VFR TO PERIODIC MVFR
CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE EVENING. PRECIP WILL EXPAND
AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUES MORNING WITH
LOWERING CEILINGS FOR SE OK / WESTERN AR. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A LARGE RAIN SHIELD IS ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AT THIS HOUR
AS A MID-LEVEL LOW SPINS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
THE RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL TAPER ON TUESDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW
MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND
AN INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THAT
COULD SEE UPWARDS OF THREE INCHES OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH
COULD LEAD LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT REIGNS SUPREME. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ALSO
TAKE PLACE DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND AS THE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...06
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
642 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015
.DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....
&&
.AVIATION...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...BOTH CENTERED
OVER WEST-CENTRAL TX...WILL DRIFT E/SE OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE
CURRENTLY-COMMA-SHAPED AREA OF RAIN...LOW CLOUDS...AND LOW
VISIBILITIES WILL FLATTEN INTO AN E-W BAND OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...LYING ROUGHLY ALONG I-40 BY MID-MORNING. OTHER AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST IN SW OK AND N TX. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED
TSRA WILL OCCUR IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF KSPS THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE UNLIKELY TO AFFECT THE FIELD ITSELF.
CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS/VISIBILITIES/RAIN WILL OCCUR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES...AND WILL BEGIN IN THE W...THEN WORK E
WITH TIME. THE N EXTENT OF THE LOW CEILINGS/ETC. WILL REACH NEAR
THE KS BORDER THIS EVENING...THEN RECEDE SLOWLY S OVERNIGHT.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT DETAILS OF THE
TAFS...TIMING/HEIGHTS/VISIBILITIES...IS VERY LOW...AS IS TYPICAL
OF THIS TYPE OF COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM.
CMS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/
DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON CONTINUING RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
THROUGH 19Z... THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRANSITION EASTWARD
ACROSS WRN N TX... AS THE H5 LOW CONTINUES TO CHURN ITS WAY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. EVIDENT ON WV... DECENT DIFFLUENCE IS NOTED
ACROSS NRN TX INTO THE ARKLATEX... WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER S CENTRAL/SERN OK. RAIN CONTINUES TO
LIFT SLOWLY N/NE OUT OF SWRN OK/WRN N TX... WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND
EXTENDING FROM WEST CENTRAL OK INTO NRN TX ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE SFC TROUGH/WARM FRONT. ALTHOUGH RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS SWRN
OK/WRN N TX FOR THE MEANTIME... EXPECT LIGHT RAIN/SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO BUILD BACK IN LATTER TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST. THE HRRR HAS DONE A DECENT JOB WITH THE OVERALL EVOLUTION...
AND COMPARED TO THE VARIOUS FLAVORS OF WRF ONE CAN CHOOSE FROM...
TIMING FOR A RETURN TO SHOWERS ACROSS WRN N TX AND SWRN OK WOULD BE
SOMEWHERE AROUND MIDNIGHT. DISCLAIMER... ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
TONIGHT ACROSS SAID AREA WILL NOT HAVE THE SUBSTANCE OF EARLIER
TODAY... THEREFORE... HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
OVERALL... EXPECT MOST OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
THROUGH 00Z... SO WILL KEEP THE REMAINING AREAS OF THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH INTACT THROUGH 28/00Z. TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... REMAINING
PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL OK WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION S/SE AS THE H5 LOW
TRACKS ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND THE WARM FRONT DRIFTS BACK
SOUTH. FROM 28/00Z (7 PM CDT) THROUGH NOON TUE... ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL ONLY RANGE FROM A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO NEAR A HALF
INCH... WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION FROM
CENTRAL OK THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL/SERN OK.
BEYOND TUESDAY... QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AS BROAD SFC HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS THE LENGTH OF THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGH THU. TEMPS
WILL SLOWLY WARM UP EACH DAY... NEARING NORMAL BY FRI... WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S... PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND. LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT OVERALL AGREEMENT THROUGH SUN... WITH A
BROAD RIDGE EXTENDED ACROSS THE LENGTH OF THE SRN CONUS. IT IS WELL
IN THE FUTURE... BUT PRECIP CHANCES LOOK POSSIBLE TO RETURN BY MON
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN OFF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
JTK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 47 64 45 73 / 80 40 0 10
HOBART OK 44 64 42 72 / 70 30 0 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 47 63 44 72 / 60 40 0 0
GAGE OK 39 66 40 74 / 100 10 0 10
PONCA CITY OK 45 67 44 75 / 80 20 0 10
DURANT OK 49 61 45 72 / 80 50 10 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-009>011-
014>019-021>025-027>031-038>042-046.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
09/23/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1135 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
...UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
NRN TX...JUST S OF THE RED RIVER WITH THE DRYLINE
ACROSS WEST TX. OUR FORECAST AREA IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF ELY TO NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW...WITH SOME
HIGHER DEWPOINT POOLING NOTED ACROSS FAR SE OK.
IN THE NEARER TERM...LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NE OK AND FAR
NW AR ARE STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF LIFTING N AND
MIXING OUT...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE.
WHILE THE HIGHEST RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN FARTHER S ACROSS CENTRAL TX...WE`LL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON STORMS MAKING A RUN TOWARD SE OK
BY THIS EVENING. LATEST 12Z NAM AND RECENT RUNS OF
THE HRRR HAVE DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF STORMS INTO OUR
AREA A BIT...SO HAVE TWEAKED EVENING POPS ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 73 52 62 47 / 10 80 70 50
FSM 76 53 63 49 / 10 50 50 70
MLC 82 55 61 48 / 10 80 70 70
BVO 69 51 61 47 / 10 50 50 40
FYV 71 49 60 45 / 10 40 30 50
BYV 65 47 61 46 / 10 20 20 30
MKO 78 53 61 48 / 10 80 70 60
MIO 67 49 63 46 / 10 20 30 30
F10 77 53 59 48 / 10 80 70 70
HHW 83 56 65 50 / 10 70 70 80
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
340 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
AND COOL AIR ALOFT WILL FAVOR UNSEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES
WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THIS MONTH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A SPRAWLING UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTROL THE
PATTERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AT LEAST. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL
TO FUNNEL A SERIES OF UPPER SHORTWAVES DOWN OUT OF NEW
YORK/EASTERN CANADA AND KEEP A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS AND THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.
THE FIRST SYSTEM CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE AS AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS
DROPPING SOUTH INTO NRN PA. THE COARSER RESOLUTION MODELS CREATE
SOME LIGHT QPF AND THE HRRR HINTS AT SOME SMALL CELLULAR ACTIVITY
AT MAX HEATING. IT MAKES SENSE WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND THE
STRONG LATE APRIL SUN. I DON`T FEEL CONFIDENT IN MEASURING
ANYWHERE HOWEVER SO WILL JUST KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED SPRINKLES
FOR NOW.
THE SPRINKLES WILL VANISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING BUT UPSTREAM
CLOUDINESS LOOKS DESTINED TO CONTINUE EDGING SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO
THE REGION. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY HOWEVER UNDER A SUBTLE AREA OF
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BETWEEN THE SYSTEM APPROACHING NOW AND A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE SLATED FOR MONDAY.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND FREEZING OVER THE NW TO AROUND 40 IN
THE SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MODELS AGREE IN BRINGING A RELATIVELY SHARP SHORTWAVE DOWN
THROUGH THE EASTERN GR LAKES AND THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. FORECAST
LAPSE RATES AREN`T TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE SO THE COVERAGE OF THE QPF
MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE. THE SREF/GEFS HAVE NOTHING MORE THAN A
SMALL CHANCE AND THAT LOOKS REASONABLE.
WITH MARGINALLY CHILLY TEMPS IN THE LOW LEVELS...CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME WET SNOWFLAKES IF THE SHOWERS MANAGE TO DEVELOP EARLY ENOUGH
IN THE DAY MONDAY. NO ACCUMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE END OF APRIL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACTIVE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA WILL KEEP THE REGION IN UPPER LEVEL TROFFINESS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT COOLER THAN
NORMAL...SHOWERY WEATHER. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE EAST AND
TRY TO PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN U.S. STARTING AROUND NEXT
WEEKEND.
EARLY THIS WEEK A SHOT OF COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES AS A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS NUDGED SOUTHWARD ACROSS PA FROM AN UPPER
LOW OVR NEW ENG. COOL TEMPS ALOFT ASSOC WITH UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO A GOOD DEAL OF DAYTIME CLOUDINESS AND SCT SHRA /ESP OVR
THE MTNS/ MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
BY MIDWEEK...SLOW MOVING SRN STREAM UPPER LOW WILL EMERGE INTO THE
SERN TO MID ATLC STATES...POSSIBLY PHASING WITH A NRN STREAM
WAVE. AT THIS POINT SIGNIFICANT PCPN LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF
PA...THOUGH THE HIEST POPS OF THE PERIOD WILL BE FROM THIS SYSTEM
ON THURSDAY. REGARDLESS...THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A CLOUDY AND COOL
DAY ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH.
AFFECTS OF THIS UPPER LOW SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AND WITH RISING HEIGHTS THE START OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS
WARMER AND DRIER...AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH BASED CEILINGS OVER MAINLY
NORTHERN AREAS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF NY.
CEILINGS WILL LOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS TONIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY MIDNIGHT IN
THE VICINITY OF BRADFORD AND AFTER MIDNIGHT AT JOHNSTOWN.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THESE AREAS
FROM THE NORTH...PROBABLY NOT UNTIL SUNRISE OR SHORTLY AFTER.
ELSEWHERE... CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
WED...NO SIG WX.
THU-FRI...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
230 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
AND COOL AIR ALOFT WILL FAVOR UNSEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES
WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THIS MONTH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SPRAWLING UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTROL THE
PATTERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AT LEAST. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL
TO FUNNEL A SERIES OF UPPER SHORTWAVES DOWN OUT OF NEW
YORK/EASTERN CANADA AND KEEP A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS AND THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.
THE FIRST SYSTEM CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE AS AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS
DROPPING SOUTH INTO NRN PA. THE COARSER RESOLUTION MODELS CREATE
SOME LIGHT QPF AND THE HRRR HINTS AT SOME SMALL CELLULAR ACTIVITY
AT MAX HEATING. IT MAKES SENSE WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND THE
STRONG LATE APRIL SUN. I DON`T FEEL CONFIDENT IN MEASURING
ANYWHERE HOWEVER SO WILL JUST KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED SPRINKLES
FOR NOW.
THE SPRINKLES WILL VANISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING BUT UPSTREAM
CLOUDINESS LOOKS DESTINED TO CONTINUE EDGING SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO
THE REGION. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY HOWEVER UNDER A SUBTLE AREA OF
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BETWEEN THE SYSTEM APPROACHING NOW AND A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE SLATED FOR MONDAY.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND FREEZING OVER THE NW TO AROUND 40 IN
THE SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
MODELS AGREE IN BRINGING A RELATIVELY SHARP SHORTWAVE DOWN
THROUGH THE EASTERN GR LAKES AND THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. FORECAST
LAPSE RATES AREN`T TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE SO THE COVERAGE OF THE QPF
MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE. THE SREF/GEFS HAVE NOTHING MORE THAN A
SMALL CHANCE AND THAT LOOKS REASONABLE.
WITH MARGINALLY CHILLY TEMPS IN THE LOW LEVELS...CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME WET SNOWFLAKES IF THE SHOWERS MANAGE TO DEVELOP EARLY ENOUGH
IN THE DAY MONDAY. NO ACCUMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE END OF APRIL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACTIVE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA WILL KEEP THE REGION IN UPPER LEVEL TROFFINESS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE BLOCKED UP NRN STREAM...GENERALLY
NW FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL TEND TO SHUNT SRN STREAM
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH OF PA.
EARLY NEXT WEEK A SHOT OF COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES AS A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT IS NUDGED SOUTHWARD ACROSS PA FROM AN UPPER LOW
OVR NEW ENG. COOL TEMPS ALOFT ASSOC WITH UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO A GOOD DEAL OF DAYTIME CLOUDINESS AND SCT SHRA /ESP OVR
THE MTNS/ MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
BY MIDWEEK...THIS LOW FINALLY LIFTS OUT FOR GOOD..BUT DIGGING
TROUGH FROM UPPER MIDWEST WILL EXTEND INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BY
LATE WEEK...COMBINED WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT
OF THE S PLAINS TOWARD THE E COAST WILL BRING POSSIBILITY OF A
DEVELOPING STORM SLIDING NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
TRACK/STRENGTH STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN...BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE
WE/LL BE BETWEEN THAT LOW PRESSURE AREA AND A HIGH OVER OHIO
VALLEY...LIKELY KEEPING CLOUDS AND SCT SHOWERS AROUND AS TEMPS
COOL BACK DOWN A BIT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH BASED CEILINGS OVER MAINLY
NORTHERN AREAS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF NY.
CEILINGS WILL LOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS TONIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY MIDNIGHT IN
THE VICINITY OF BRADFORD AND AFTER MIDNIGHT AT JOHNSTOWN.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THESE AREAS
FROM THE NORTH...PROBABLY NOT UNTIL SUNRISE OR SHORTLY AFTER.
ELSEWHERE... CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
WED...NO SIG WX.
THU-FRI...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1022 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES AND COOL AIR ALOFT WILL FAVOR UNSEASONABLY CHILLY
TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF
THIS MONTH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SPRAWLING UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTROL THE
PATTERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AT LEAST. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL
TO FUNNEL A SERIES OF UPPER SHORTWAVES DOWN OUT OF NEW
YORK/EASTERN CANADA AND KEEP A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS AND THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.
THE FIRST SYSTEM CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE AS AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS
DROPPING SOUTH INTO NRN PA. THE COARSER RESOLUTION MODELS CREATE
SOME LIGHT QPF AND THE HRRR HINTS AT SOME SMALL CELLULAR ACTIVITY
AT MAX HEATING. IT MAKES SENSE WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND THE
STRONG LATE APRIL SUN. I DON`T FEEL CONFIDENT IN MEASURING
ANYWHERE HOWEVER SO WILL JUST KEEP THE MENTION OF SPRINKLES FOR
NOW.
00Z GEFS MEAN 8H TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS FROM NR 50F ACROSS THE
NW MTNS...TO NR 60F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...STILL WELL BLW
NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
CONTINUED COOLING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL TREND TWD BKN-OVC
SKIES WITH ISOLATED TO SCTD -SHRA LATE TONIGHT /BUT MORE LIKELY
AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY/.
COLD BLYR TEMPS WITH ZERO DEG C WET BULB HEIGHT ONLY 1-2KFT AGL
WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND
NW MTNS TO ALLOW WET SNOW TO MIX IN WITH THE SHOWERS...ESP AT
ELEVATIONS AOA 2000 MSL.
SFC TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50F MONDAY AFTERNOON /AND
THE ZERO WET BULB HEIGHT RISING TO BETWEEN 2-3 KFT AGL/ WILL
SUPPORT PLAIN RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ACTIVE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA WILL KEEP THE REGION IN UPPER LEVEL TROFFINESS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE BLOCKED UP NRN STREAM...GENERALLY
NW FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL TEND TO SHUNT SRN STREAM
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH OF PA.
EARLY NEXT WEEK A SHOT OF COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES AS A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT IS NUDGED SOUTHWARD ACROSS PA FROM AN UPPER LOW
OVR NEW ENG. COOL TEMPS ALOFT ASSOC WITH UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO A GOOD DEAL OF DAYTIME CLOUDINESS AND SCT SHRA /ESP OVR
THE MTNS/ MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
BY MIDWEEK...THIS LOW FINALLY LIFTS OUT FOR GOOD..BUT DIGGING
TROUGH FROM UPPER MIDWEST WILL EXTEND INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BY
LATE WEEK...COMBINED WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT
OF THE S PLAINS TOWARD THE E COAST WILL BRING POSSIBILITY OF A
DEVELOPING STORM SLIDING NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
TRACK/STRENGTH STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN...BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE
WE/LL BE BETWEEN THAT LOW PRESSURE AREA AND A HIGH OVER OHIO
VALLEY...LIKELY KEEPING CLOUDS AND SCT SHOWERS AROUND AS TEMPS
COOL BACK DOWN A BIT.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGHER BASED CEILINGS OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN AREAS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF NY.
BY MID DAY A SCT-BKN 4000-5000FT DECK WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN/WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN AS COOLER AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO
ARRIVE.
CEILINGS WILL LOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS
TONIGHT WITH RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING IN THE EVENING AT KBFD AND
AFTER MIDNIGHT AT KJST. SCT LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO MOVE
INTO THESE AREAS FROM THE NORTH. ELSEWHERE... CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE RESTRICTIONS BECOME POSS
ON MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MON...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SCT/NUMEROUS RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN.
TUE...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. IMPROVING TO VFR
LATE.
WED...NO SIG WX.
THU...MVFR POSS IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE/RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
937 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS ARE PUSHING TO THE EAST
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF LLANO AND BURNET
COUNTIES TONIGHT. STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE PEA TO DIME SIZED
HAIL. OTHERWISE...A COOL NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE HILL COUNTRY
AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/
AVIATION... /00Z TAF UPDATE/
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ABOUT 80 MILES EAST OF I-35 SHOULD DEFLECT
ANY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION FOR THIS EVENING...AND ONLY A FEW
ELEVATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL TX TONIGHT. THIS IS
REFLECTED WELL IN RECENT HRRR RUNS...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY
CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES ON TAF SITES. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIP
THROUGH THE AREA WITH A GRADUAL NORTHERLY WIND INCREASE THIS
EVENING WITH NOT A SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT OR DRAMATIC WIND
INCREASE. UNDER THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER N TX RESIDES LOWER
LEVEL SATURATION THROUGH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT RAINS...AND
THIS LOWER CATEGORY SHOULD DRAG MVFR CIGS INTO AUSTIN SOMETIME
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO SAT/SSF BY DAYBREAK. MEANWHILE...DRT
SHOULD SEE BETTER DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MIXING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
HAVE VFR CIGS DEVELOP IF THEY FORM AT ALL.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
LOOKING AT THE 27/19Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS DRAPED ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES...LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG
THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 70S AND
80S WHILE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU TO NEAR 70 NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS.
ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LOW IS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE RED RIVER
OVERNIGHT. SOME WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL SPREAD INTO
THE HILL COUNTRY AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND WILL
RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS DRY AND
COOL AIR SPREADS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES
TO MOVE EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS A TRAILING TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WE/LL KEEP ANY RAIN CHANCES LOW (20%) AND
CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF A FREDERICKSBURG TO GIDDINGS LINE ON
TUESDAY. WE/LL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WOULD NOT
BE TOO SURPRISED IF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TRIED TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTH. GIVEN THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER...ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD
LIKELY EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER ALONG
WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 40S AND 50S WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE
COOLEST SPOTS WILL BE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN I-35 CORRIDOR. WE DO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY
FLOW BEGINNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION. THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL TRANSITION FROM NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WE/LL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED
TO THE COASTAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES SPREADING
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 59 69 52 75 53 / 20 10 - 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 59 68 46 74 49 / 20 10 - 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 59 71 50 75 52 / - - - 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 56 64 47 74 52 / 30 20 - 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 58 72 52 78 54 / 0 - - 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 58 65 48 74 51 / 30 20 - 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 58 73 49 75 52 / 0 - - 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 59 69 49 74 52 / - - - 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 61 70 49 74 52 / 20 10 - 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 60 72 51 75 53 / 0 - - 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 61 73 52 75 54 / 0 - - 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
707 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015
.AVIATION... /00Z TAF UPDATE/
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ABOUT 80 MILES EAST OF I-35 SHOULD DEFLECT
ANY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION FOR THIS EVENING...AND ONLY A FEW
ELEVATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL TX TONIGHT. THIS IS
REFLECTED WELL IN RECENT HRRR RUNS...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY
CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES ON TAF SITES. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIP
THROUGH THE AREA WITH A GRADUAL NORTHERLY WIND INCREASE THIS
EVENING WITH NOT A SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT OR DRAMATIC WIND
INCREASE. UNDER THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER N TX RESIDES LOWER
LEVEL SATURATION THROUGH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT RAINS...AND
THIS LOWER CATEGORY SHOULD DRAG MVFR CIGS INTO AUSTIN SOMETIME
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO SAT/SSF BY DAYBREAK. MEANWHILE...DRT
SHOULD SEE BETTER DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MIXING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
HAVE VFR CIGS DEVELOP IF THEY FORM AT ALL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
LOOKING AT THE 27/19Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS DRAPED ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES...LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG
THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 70S AND
80S WHILE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU TO NEAR 70 NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS.
ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LOW IS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE RED RIVER
OVERNIGHT. SOME WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL SPREAD INTO
THE HILL COUNTRY AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND WILL
RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS DRY AND
COOL AIR SPREADS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES
TO MOVE EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS A TRAILING TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WE/LL KEEP ANY RAIN CHANCES LOW (20%) AND
CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF A FREDERICKSBURG TO GIDDINGS LINE ON
TUESDAY. WE/LL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WOULD NOT
BE TOO SURPRISED IF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TRIED TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTH. GIVEN THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER...ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD
LIKELY EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER ALONG
WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 40S AND 50S WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE
COOLEST SPOTS WILL BE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN I-35 CORRIDOR. WE DO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY
FLOW BEGINNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION. THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL TRANSITION FROM NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WE/LL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED
TO THE COASTAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES SPREADING
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 59 69 52 75 53 / 20 10 - 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 59 68 46 74 49 / 20 10 - 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 59 71 50 75 52 / - - - 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 56 64 47 74 52 / 30 20 - 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 58 72 52 78 54 / 0 - - 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 58 65 48 74 51 / 30 20 - 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 58 73 49 75 52 / 0 - - 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 59 69 49 74 52 / - - - 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 61 70 49 74 52 / 20 10 - 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 60 72 51 75 53 / 0 - - 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 61 73 52 75 54 / 0 - - 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
232 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
.DISCUSSION...
WITH THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST ON OUR SHORT TERM SEVERE WEATHER
EVOLUTION...WILL KEEP THE DISCUSSION WITH REGARDS TO THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST BRIEF. THE DISCUSSION REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF
SEVERE STORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT REMAINS MOSTLY VALID STILL AT 2
PM...SO LEFT THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE APPENDED BELOW.
CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE FOR TODAY...THE 18Z SUBJECTIVE
SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WAS OCCURRING
FARTHER NORTH THAN WHAT MODELS WERE INDICATING THIS MORNING. IF
THE SURFACE LOW DOES NOT DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON...THE PRIMARY INGREDIENTS FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE NORTH TOWARDS THE DFW METROPLEX THIS
EVENING. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN THROUGH 00Z AND THE
STRONGEST FORCING AND COMBINATION OF INGREDIENTS FOR SUPERCELLS
WILL EXIST AT THAT TIME AS A RESULT. THE BEST WINDOW FOR DISCRETE
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE CWA...EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW
STILL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK FOR THE 5 PM TO 10 PM TIME FRAME.
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE LOW CLOSELY
THIS AFTERNOON BECAUSE IF IT SETS UP FARTHER NORTH...THE BIGGEST
THREAT FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS MAY MOVE AWAY FROM CENTRAL TEXAS
AND TOWARDS THE DFW AREA. WILL HAVE TO JUST SEE WHAT HAPPENS AT
THIS POINT. ANOTHER TORNADO WATCH IS LIKELY TO BE ISSUED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WHILE THERE MAY NOT
BE MANY STORMS...THE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO POSE A
VERY HIGH THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER. CONDITIONS STILL LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES
WHEREVER SUPERCELLS DEVELOP.
A SQUALL LINE STILL LOOKS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA OR ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS THIS EVENING. THIS SQUALL LINE
STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE VERY ORGANIZED AND POSE A WIDESPREAD
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THE THREAT FOR FLOODING APPEARS TO BE UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE THREAT FOR TRAINING STORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE VERY LIKELY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE MODE AND OVERALL THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. IF A LARGE SQUALL
LINE/DERECHO MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT...IT MAY
LEAVE A STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR MONDAY. UNTIL WE KNOW WHAT HAPPENS
WITH STORMS THROUGH TONIGHT...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY THE
EXACT THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE STRONG
LIFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND
THERE WILL BE MOISTURE...SO OVERALL POPS ARE QUITE HIGH IN THE 50
TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE RANGE. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER CONDITIONS NEAR THE SURFACE MAY BE COOL AND
CLOUD COVER MAY INHIBIT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY TOMORROW. AT THIS TIME...THINK THAT THE LOCATIONS WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL TEND TO BE
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AS THE OVERNIGHT SQUALL LINE IS MOST LIKELY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. WE WILL OBVIOUSLY HAVE TO REEVALUATE THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT TOMORROW MORNING AFTER THE SQUALL LINE
HAS MOVED EAST OF THE CWA.
TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER NORTH
TEXAS...CENTERED OVER THE RED RIVER. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEEING
SOME STORMS RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE UPPER LOW AS THE COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT...HOWEVER SKIES WILL
LIKELY BE OVERCAST...SO SURFACE BASED STORMS APPEAR TO BE VERY
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY NEAR THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW...SO
HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS NEAR THE RED RIVER...AND LOWEST POPS ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PREVIOUS UPDATE /ISSUED AT 1239 PM/...
MESOSCALE FORECAST UPDATE REGARDING THE FORECAST FOR SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY...
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO BORDER. 500 MB
HEIGHT FALLS OF 6 TO 12 DM WERE OBSERVED DOWNSTREAM OF THIS UPPER
TROUGH...AND THE MAGNITUDE OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS IS INDICATIVE OF
STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT TO THE EAST. AT THE 700 MB
LEVEL...A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WAS OBSERVED...WITH
A TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE IN THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER OF 22 DEG C
LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THIS PLUME OF ENHANCED LAPSE RATES...A 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET CORE
WAS OBSERVED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...AT THE
850 MB LEVEL...DEEP MOISTURE WAS ONLY OBSERVED OVER SOUTHWEST
TEXAS WITH A DRYLINE SUBJECTIVELY ANALYZED NEAR THE TX/OK
BORDER...EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AND INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO ABOUT 60 MILES WEST OF DEL RIO. A 15Z SURFACE
ANALYSIS OBSERVED RICH MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG THE TX GULF COAST
WITH MID 70S DEW POINTS OBSERVED WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF HOUSTON.
FOR TODAY...NEARLY ALL SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON
OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS SURFACE PRESSURE
FALLING AT A RATE OF 2-3 MB PER HOUR LEADING UP TO 00Z. AT
15Z...THE LOWEST SURFACE PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WAS AROUND 1002 MB...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SURFACE LOW`S
PRESSURE WILL FALL TO 993 TO 995 MB BY 00Z. THAT MAGNITUDE OF
PRESSURE FALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW IS FAIRLY
INTENSE...AND SHOULD RESULT IN A CONVERGENCE OF PARAMETERS THAT
WILL SUPPORT A LOCALIZED SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONE OF THE KEY FORECAST
CHALLENGES TODAY WILL BE DETERMINING WHERE THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
AS THE RELATIVE THREATS FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES WILL VARY
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT POSITION OF THIS LOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THE 12Z NAM AND 16Z HRRR INDICATE THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED
JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND JUST NORTH OF SAN ANGELO. IF THIS
POSITION FOR THE SURFACE LOW IS CORRECT...THE THREAT FOR DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS WOULD BE MAXIMIZED TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE
LOW...WHERE A TRIPLE POINT WOULD LIKELY SET UP. SUPERCELLS WOULD
BE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP NEAR THIS TRIPLE POINT...AND THEN MOVE
EAST IN THE RELATIVELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. STORMS
APPEAR TO BE VERY LIKELY IN A SUPERCELL STORM MODE IF THEY DEVELOP
IN THIS TRIPLE POINT BY 00Z AS CAPE IS FORECAST TO BE ON THE ORDER
OF 3000 J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50 KTS IN THE 0-6 KM AGL
LAYER. THE SHAPE OF THE 0-3 KM HODOGRAPH IS EXPECTED TO BE
CLOCKWISE LOOPING...AND DYNAMICALLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR RIGHT
MOVING SUPERCELLS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SUPERCELL STORM MOTION TO
BE ALMOST DUE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELLS LOOK MOST LIKELY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20
BASED ON THE FORECAST POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW. THIS PLACES
MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE PRIMARY THREAT CORRIDOR FOR DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF WELL-ORGANIZED
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND TORNADOES. THE RESIDENTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO PAY VERY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A RESULT. OF COURSE IF THE SURFACE LOW IS FARTHER NORTH
...THE PRIMARY THREAT CORRIDOR FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL MOVE
NORTH WITH IT. AWAY FROM THIS PRIMARY THREAT CORRIDOR...IT IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FOR SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE
IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME INDICATED BY THE CLOCKWISE
LOOPING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH. THIS LIFT/FORCING IS NOT AS STRONG
AND FOCUSED...SO IT IS SIMPLY MORE DIFFICULT TO KNOW IF...WHEN
AND WHERE A SUPERCELL MAY DEVELOP IN THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME.
AFTER 00Z...THE VERY STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION THAT SUGGESTS A VERY WELL ORGANIZED
SQUALL LINE WILL DEVELOP NEAR CHILDRESS...AND MOVE SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. THERE ARE HINTS IN THE MODEL
MASS FIELDS THAT THIS SQUALL LINE COULD POTENTIALLY BE VERY WELL
ORGANIZED...AND MAY POSE A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS IT
MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT. IF THIS SQUALL LINE
DOES INDEED ORGANIZE...IT MAY PERSIST LONG ENOUGH AND PRODUCE
ENOUGH STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE TO QUALIFY AS A DERECHO BY THE
TIME IT EXITS THE CWA TO THE EAST WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE PRIMARY
TIME THIS SQUALL LINE/BOW-ECHO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER NORTH
TEXAS IS FROM 10 PM TO 3 AM. THE EXISTENCE OF THIS SQUALL LINE IS
FAR FROM 100 PERCENT CERTAIN...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY ORGANIZE BASED
ON THE CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THIS MORNING`S HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE PRIMARY THREATS WITHIN THIS SQUALL LINE WOULD BE
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. ASSUMING THE SQUALL LINE MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA AFTER SUNSET AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...THIS MAY
REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH-END DAMAGING WINDS. REGARDLESS...
WIND DAMAGE WOULD STILL BE LIKELY AS THIS SQUALL LIKE WOULD
PROBABLY BE VERY WELL ORGANIZED. LARGE HAIL AND A BRIEF TORNADO
MAY ALSO OCCUR IN THIS LINE...ASSUMING IT DEVELOPS.
LAST BUT NOT LEAST...WE WILL ALSO BE MONITORING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF A WARM
FRONT SETS UP ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND TRAIN OVER
AREAS TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS MAY EVOLVE INTO ANOTHER LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING EVENT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND GENERALLY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35...VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED ON FRIDAY. WILL HOLD
OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IN THIS TAKING
PLACE IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME. IF IT OCCURS...THESE LOCATIONS
HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED QUITE A BIT OF RAINFALL ON FRIDAY...SO
FLOODING WOULD TEND TO OCCUR QUICKLY IF STORMS BEGIN TO TRAIN OVER
THIS REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SHORT TERM FORECAST UPDATES FOR CONVECTION
MODE THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT STORMS WILL START DEVELOPING
NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND EVOLVE INTO DISCRETE SUPERCELLS BY/AFTER
4 PM/21Z.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1256 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE A VERY ACTIVE PERIOD FOR THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS TAF SITES WITH CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE SEVERE.
CONVECTION IS ONGOING SOUTHWEST OF METROPLEX TAF SITES AND JUST
TO THE WEST OF WACO. THIS ACTIVITY IS ELEVATED...AND BASED AROUND
10KFT. STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE COLUMN ARE LIKELY
CONTRIBUTING TO TURBULENCE IN THIS AREA AS WELL. LIGHTNING WILL BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERN AS THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO PUSH TOWARDS THE
METROPLEX THIS AFTERNOON.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE AS SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
INCREASES DUE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. IT APPEARS
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS NEAR THE METROPLEX WILL
OCCUR AFTER 02Z. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS KEYING IN ON AN AREA
ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A
STRONG LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP AND RIDE THE BOUNDARY
EASTWARD TOWARD THE METROPLEX TAF SITES AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS
SOLUTION IS FAR FROM CERTAIN...BUT THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT FROM
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE WHICH LENDS CREDENCE TO THIS SCENARIO. THE
MAIN THREAT WITH THIS SOLUTION WOULD BE VERY STRONG WINDS...BUT
ALL TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
THE LINE OF STORMS BEING ADVERTISED ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WILL LIKELY BE TOO FAR NORTH TO IMPACT THE WACO TAF SITE.
HOWEVER... WACO WILL BE THREATENED BY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE DRYLINE. AGAIN...ALL TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CENTRAL TEXAS.
AFTER STORMS CLEAR OUT EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING...SOME BORDERLINE
IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION. HAVE KEPT TAF SITES ON THE LOW END OF MVFR FOR NOW
SINCE THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THE POST-CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT
TOMORROW.
STALLEY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 63 69 53 63 48 / 70 60 60 20 5
WACO, TX 64 76 54 65 46 / 60 60 40 10 0
PARIS, TX 56 66 52 63 45 / 70 70 70 30 5
DENTON, TX 62 66 52 63 45 / 70 60 60 20 5
MCKINNEY, TX 60 66 52 63 46 / 70 70 70 20 5
DALLAS, TX 63 69 53 63 50 / 70 60 60 20 5
TERRELL, TX 61 70 54 63 48 / 60 70 70 20 5
CORSICANA, TX 64 73 54 64 48 / 60 60 60 20 0
TEMPLE, TX 64 81 55 66 48 / 60 30 40 10 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 61 71 53 63 46 / 70 60 40 10 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
143 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SOME
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU TODAY. IT APPEARS THIS
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ISOLATED AND NOT IMPACT OUR TAF SITES. FOR
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...LOW CLOUDS RETURN TO THE I-35
CORRIDOR...RESULTING IN LOW END MVFR TO IFR CIGS. THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. WE WILL MENTION TEMPO
GROUPS FOR TSRA FOR THE I-35 TAF SITES BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. CONVECTION
SHOULD MOVE EAST OF ALL TAF SITES AFTER 13Z...LEAVING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS UNTIL 15Z. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/
UPDATE...CORRECTED...
MONITORING WHAT COULD BE A VERY ACTIVE AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. THROUGH MID MORNING...SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE ALONG THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA IN A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
ENVIRONMENT. EML CAPPING/MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS LIMITING THE
INTENSITY OF THIS DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY BUT IT MAY BE A
FOREWARNING OF THINGS TO COME THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CAP IS
FORECAST TO ERODE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
ALSO BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE DRYLINE CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST EAST
OF THE BIG BEND AREA THROUGH MIDLAND WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS FAVORABLE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
ORIENTATION COULD RESULT IN A VERTICALLY VEERED PROFILE AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE. AS THE MORNING CLOUD COVER MIXES
OUT AND CAPPING DETERIORATES BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AN AREA EAST OF
DEL RIO TO SONORA WILL BE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED...BUT POTENTIALLY RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING CONVECTION WITH THE PROSPECT OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND POTENTIALLY SOME TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION
SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR...DO THINK THE DECENT SHOT
AT SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD EXTEND SOUTH TO THE HWY 57 CORRIDOR
THIS AFTERNOON.
SINCE HI RES MODELS SUCH AS TTU WRF AND HRRR ARE KEEPING CI WELL
NORTH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...DID NOT INCREASE POPS ABOVE CHC
WORDING THROUGH 00Z. BUT AS SPC HAS INCLUDED THE SAME GENERAL
LOCATIONS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IN THE ENHANCED RISK...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH INTO OUR CWA THIS
AFTERNOON.
AS FOR OVERNIGHT STORM POTENTIAL...PREVIOUS FORECAST SEEMS TO BE
ON TRACK WITH LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL RUNS. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING FOR A LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT LINE OF POTENTIALLY
SEVERE STORMS...MORE AS A STRAIGHT LINE WIND THREAT WITH LARGE
HAIL AS WELL.
TB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 65 85 59 72 51 / 70 30 20 10 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 65 83 58 72 49 / 70 30 20 10 -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 66 84 59 73 50 / 60 30 10 10 -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 62 83 56 70 49 / 70 30 30 20 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 62 87 60 76 51 / 10 0 - - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 63 83 57 70 49 / 70 30 30 10 -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 63 85 59 74 49 / 40 20 - - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 65 83 60 72 50 / 70 30 10 10 -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 69 82 61 72 50 / 60 50 20 10 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 66 85 60 73 51 / 50 20 10 10 -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 67 84 62 74 51 / 40 30 10 10 -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...03
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1256 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
.AVIATION...
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE A VERY ACTIVE PERIOD FOR THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS TAF SITES WITH CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE SEVERE.
CONVECTION IS ONGOING SOUTHWEST OF METROPLEX TAF SITES AND JUST
TO THE WEST OF WACO. THIS ACTIVITY IS ELEVATED...AND BASED AROUND
10KFT. STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE COLUMN ARE LIKELY
CONTRIBUTING TO TURBULENCE IN THIS AREA AS WELL. LIGHTNING WILL BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERN AS THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO PUSH TOWARDS THE
METROPLEX THIS AFTERNOON.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE AS SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
INCREASES DUE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. IT APPEARS
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS NEAR THE METROPLEX WILL
OCCUR AFTER 02Z. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS KEYING IN ON AN AREA
ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A
STRONG LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP AND RIDE THE BOUNDARY
EASTWARD TOWARD THE METROPLEX TAF SITES AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS
SOLUTION IS FAR FROM CERTAIN...BUT THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT FROM
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE WHICH LENDS CREDENCE TO THIS SCENARIO. THE
MAIN THREAT WITH THIS SOLUTION WOULD BE VERY STRONG WINDS...BUT
ALL TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
THE LINE OF STORMS BEING ADVERTISED ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WILL LIKELY BE TOO FAR NORTH TO IMPACT THE WACO TAF SITE.
HOWEVER... WACO WILL BE THREATENED BY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE DRYLINE. AGAIN...ALL TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CENTRAL TEXAS.
AFTER STORMS CLEAR OUT EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING...SOME BORDERLINE
IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION. HAVE KEPT TAF SITES ON THE LOW END OF MVFR FOR NOW
SINCE THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THE POST-CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT
TOMORROW.
STALLEY
&&
.UPDATE...
...MESOSCALE FORECAST UPDATE REGARDING THE FORECAST FOR SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY...
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO BORDER. 500 MB
HEIGHT FALLS OF 6 TO 12 DM WERE OBSERVED DOWNSTREAM OF THIS UPPER
TROUGH...AND THE MAGNITUDE OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS IS INDICATIVE OF
STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT TO THE EAST. AT THE 700 MB
LEVEL...A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WAS OBSERVED...WITH
A TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE IN THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER OF 22 DEG C
LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THIS PLUME OF ENHANCED LAPSE RATES...A 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET CORE
WAS OBSERVED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...AT THE
850 MB LEVEL...DEEP MOISTURE WAS ONLY OBSERVED OVER SOUTHWEST
TEXAS WITH A DRYLINE SUBJECTIVELY ANALYZED NEAR THE TX/OK
BORDER...EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AND INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO ABOUT 60 MILES WEST OF DEL RIO. A 15Z SURFACE
ANALYSIS OBSERVED RICH MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG THE TX GULF COAST
WITH MID 70S DEW POINTS OBSERVED WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF HOUSTON.
FOR TODAY...NEARLY ALL SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON
OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS SURFACE PRESSURE
FALLING AT A RATE OF 2-3 MB PER HOUR LEADING UP TO 00Z. AT
15Z...THE LOWEST SURFACE PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WAS AROUND 1002 MB...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SURFACE LOW`S
PRESSURE WILL FALL TO 993 TO 995 MB BY 00Z. THAT MAGNITUDE OF
PRESSURE FALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW IS FAIRLY
INTENSE...AND SHOULD RESULT IN A CONVERGENCE OF PARAMETERS THAT
WILL SUPPORT A LOCALIZED SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONE OF THE KEY FORECAST
CHALLENGES TODAY WILL BE DETERMINING WHERE THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
AS THE RELATIVE THREATS FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES WILL VARY
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT POSITION OF THIS LOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THE 12Z NAM AND 16Z HRRR INDICATE THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED
JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND JUST NORTH OF SAN ANGELO. IF THIS
POSITION FOR THE SURFACE LOW IS CORRECT...THE THREAT FOR DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS WOULD BE MAXIMIZED TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE
LOW...WHERE A TRIPLE POINT WOULD LIKELY SET UP. SUPERCELLS WOULD
BE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP NEAR THIS TRIPLE POINT...AND THEN MOVE
EAST IN THE RELATIVELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. STORMS
APPEAR TO BE VERY LIKELY IN A SUPERCELL STORM MODE IF THEY DEVELOP
IN THIS TRIPLE POINT BY 00Z AS CAPE IS FORECAST TO BE ON THE ORDER
OF 3000 J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50 KTS IN THE 0-6 KM AGL
LAYER. THE SHAPE OF THE 0-3 KM HODOGRAPH IS EXPECTED TO BE
CLOCKWISE LOOPING...AND DYNAMICALLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR RIGHT
MOVING SUPERCELLS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SUPERCELL STORM MOTION TO
BE ALMOST DUE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELLS LOOK MOST LIKELY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20
BASED ON THE FORECAST POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW. THIS PLACES
MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE PRIMARY THREAT CORRIDOR FOR DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF WELL-ORGANIZED
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND TORNADOES. THE RESIDENTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO PAY VERY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A RESULT. OF COURSE IF THE SURFACE LOW IS FARTHER NORTH
...THE PRIMARY THREAT CORRIDOR FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL MOVE
NORTH WITH IT. AWAY FROM THIS PRIMARY THREAT CORRIDOR...IT IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FOR SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE
IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME INDICATED BY THE CLOCKWISE
LOOPING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH. THIS LIFT/FORCING IS NOT AS STRONG
AND FOCUSED...SO IT IS SIMPLY MORE DIFFICULT TO KNOW IF...WHEN
AND WHERE A SUPERCELL MAY DEVELOP IN THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME.
AFTER 00Z...THE VERY STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION THAT SUGGESTS A VERY WELL ORGANIZED
SQUALL LINE WILL DEVELOP NEAR CHILDRESS...AND MOVE SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. THERE ARE HINTS IN THE MODEL
MASS FIELDS THAT THIS SQUALL LINE COULD POTENTIALLY BE VERY WELL
ORGANIZED...AND MAY POSE A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS IT
MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT. IF THIS SQUALL LINE
DOES INDEED ORGANIZE...IT MAY PERSIST LONG ENOUGH AND PRODUCE
ENOUGH STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE TO QUALIFY AS A DERECHO BY THE
TIME IT EXITS THE CWA TO THE EAST WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE PRIMARY
TIME THIS SQUALL LINE/BOW-ECHO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER NORTH
TEXAS IS FROM 10 PM TO 3 AM. THE EXISTENCE OF THIS SQUALL LINE IS
FAR FROM 100 PERCENT CERTAIN...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY ORGANIZE BASED
ON THE CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THIS MORNING`S HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE PRIMARY THREATS WITHIN THIS SQUALL LINE WOULD BE
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. ASSUMING THE SQUALL LINE MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA AFTER SUNSET AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...THIS MAY
REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH-END DAMAGING WINDS. REGARDLESS...
WIND DAMAGE WOULD STILL BE LIKELY AS THIS SQUALL LIKE WOULD
PROBABLY BE VERY WELL ORGANIZED. LARGE HAIL AND A BRIEF TORNADO
MAY ALSO OCCUR IN THIS LINE...ASSUMING IT DEVELOPS.
LAST BUT NOT LEAST...WE WILL ALSO BE MONITORING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF A WARM
FRONT SETS UP ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND TRAIN OVER
AREAS TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS MAY EVOLVE INTO ANOTHER LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING EVENT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND GENERALLY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35...VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED ON FRIDAY. WILL HOLD
OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IN THIS TAKING
PLACE IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME. IF IT OCCURS...THESE LOCATIONS
HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED QUITE A BIT OF RAINFALL ON FRIDAY...SO
FLOODING WOULD TEND TO OCCUR QUICKLY IF STORMS BEGIN TO TRAIN OVER
THIS REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SHORT TERM FORECAST UPDATES FOR CONVECTION
MODE THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT STORMS WILL START DEVELOPING
NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND EVOLVE INTO DISCRETE SUPERCELLS BY/AFTER
4 PM/21Z.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST PORTION OF TODAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO
SATURDAY...WITH VERY WARM AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. ONE DIFFERENCE
WILL BE THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ACTIVE
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...THEREAFTER...A MORE
TRANQUIL PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION /SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE/ ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AT THIS HOUR REVEALED THAT THE MAIN UPPER LOW THAT
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAY/S SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WAS LOCATED
ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THIS VERY DYNAMIC TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD BEFORE CLOSING OFF LATER TODAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA BENEATH A
STOUT EML THAT IS SIMULTANEOUSLY ADVECTING EASTWARD OFF OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE EML IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE ASCENT PRODUCED BY THE APPROACHING UPPER
LOW /AS EVIDENCED BY 30 TO 40 METER HEIGHT FALLS/ SHOULD SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION MID TO LATE MORNING MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF A BOWIE TO GLEN ROSE TO KILLEEN LINE. THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE LAYER SHEAR MAY
SUPPORT A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THREAT IN THE MORNING...SHOULD
STORMS DEVELOP.
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AS A 100 KT UPPER LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THE SOUTHERN TX
PANHANDLE AND A VORTICITY LOBE ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE MAIN
TROUGH OUT INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. DURING THIS TIME...THE DRYLINE
WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPEN NEAR THE BIG COUNTRY. THE STRONG
LIFT...DIURNAL HEATING...AND INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD ERODE
SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. VERY HIGH CAPE VALUES ON THE
ORDER OF 2500-3000 J/KG....MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 8
C/KM AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 45 TO 50 KNOTS
WILL EASILY SUPPORT A LARGE AND DAMAGING HAIL THREAT. AS THE
STORMS MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST...GENERALLY BEYOND A BOWIE TO
MINERAL WELLS TO WACO LINE THIS AFTERNOON...THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DRIER WHICH INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR
DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
WHILE TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS NEAR AND JUST EAST OF
THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON...THIS THREAT ACTUALLY INCREASES DURING
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE AND BACK IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN LARGE HODOGRAPHS WHILE CINH IS STILL LOW. AN ENHANCED
TORNADO RISK MAY DEVELOP ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES THAT WOULD
INCLUDE THE WACO/TEMPLE/KILLEEN AREAS.
UNLIKE MOST SEVERE EVENTS...WE EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO
FIRE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS
SITUATED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO FOSTER AN INCREASING
HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS CONTINUED ADVECTION OF WARM MOIST AIR INTO
THE REGION IS EXPECTED.
THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT ALL INTERESTS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
NEED TO PAY PARTICULARLY CLOSE ATTENTION TO WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY
AS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HIGH IMPACT SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
IN THE FORM OF LARGE HAIL...DESTRUCTIVE WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES.
&&
.LONG TERM...
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ON MONDAY AS THE
CLOSED LOW MEANDERS ACROSS THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
STALL OUT NEAR THE RED RIVER AND MAY EVEN DRIFT SOUTHWARD. STRONG
LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT WARM MOIST
AIR NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS. WITH THE LACK
OF A STRONG CAP...EXPECT WIDESPREAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY MITIGATE THE LARGER SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON
MONDAY...EXCEPT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE SOME HEATING WILL
BE POSSIBLE. PERHAPS THE LARGER THREAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN ON MONDAY AS PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TOWARDS
THE 1.15-1.25 INCH RANGE. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD
WATCHES PARTICULARLY FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES UNTIL WE GET CLOSER
TO THE EVENT. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD TAPER OFF BY TUESDAY MORNING AS
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND THE UPPER FORCING
DEPARTS THE REGION. COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AS THE
OMEGA PATTERN ESTABLISHES ITSELF. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN MAY BE
TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF MAY.
15-BAIN/TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 84 61 71 54 64 / 40 70 70 60 20
WACO, TX 85 65 76 54 67 / 50 60 50 40 10
PARIS, TX 83 57 67 53 62 / 30 70 70 70 30
DENTON, TX 83 60 67 52 64 / 40 70 70 60 20
MCKINNEY, TX 83 59 68 53 64 / 40 70 70 70 20
DALLAS, TX 85 61 70 54 64 / 40 70 70 60 20
TERRELL, TX 85 61 71 55 64 / 40 60 70 70 20
CORSICANA, TX 85 65 73 54 65 / 30 60 60 60 20
TEMPLE, TX 86 65 80 54 67 / 50 60 40 40 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 82 62 74 55 65 / 50 70 60 40 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
77
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1239 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
.UPDATE...
...MESOSCALE FORECAST UPDATE REGARDING THE FORECAST FOR SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY...
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO BORDER. 500 MB
HEIGHT FALLS OF 6 TO 12 DM WERE OBSERVED DOWNSTREAM OF THIS UPPER
TROUGH...AND THE MAGNITUDE OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS IS INDICATIVE OF
STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT TO THE EAST. AT THE 700 MB
LEVEL...A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WAS OBSERVED...WITH
A TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE IN THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER OF 22 DEG C
LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THIS PLUME OF ENHANCED LAPSE RATES...A 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET CORE
WAS OBSERVED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...AT THE
850 MB LEVEL...DEEP MOISTURE WAS ONLY OBSERVED OVER SOUTHWEST
TEXAS WITH A DRYLINE SUBJECTIVELY ANALYZED NEAR THE TX/OK
BORDER...EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AND INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO ABOUT 60 MILES WEST OF DEL RIO. A 15Z SURFACE
ANALYSIS OBSERVED RICH MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG THE TX GULF COAST
WITH MID 70S DEW POINTS OBSERVED WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF HOUSTON.
FOR TODAY...NEARLY ALL SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON
OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS SURFACE PRESSURE
FALLING AT A RATE OF 2-3 MB PER HOUR LEADING UP TO 00Z. AT
15Z...THE LOWEST SURFACE PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WAS AROUND 1002 MB...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SURFACE LOW`S
PRESSURE WILL FALL TO 993 TO 995 MB BY 00Z. THAT MAGNITUDE OF
PRESSURE FALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW IS FAIRLY
INTENSE...AND SHOULD RESULT IN A CONVERGENCE OF PARAMETERS THAT
WILL SUPPORT A LOCALIZED SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONE OF THE KEY FORECAST
CHALLENGES TODAY WILL BE DETERMINING WHERE THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
AS THE RELATIVE THREATS FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES WILL VARY
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT POSITION OF THIS LOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THE 12Z NAM AND 16Z HRRR INDICATE THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED
JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND JUST NORTH OF SAN ANGELO. IF THIS
POSITION FOR THE SURFACE LOW IS CORRECT...THE THREAT FOR DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS WOULD BE MAXIMIZED TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE
LOW...WHERE A TRIPLE POINT WOULD LIKELY SET UP. SUPERCELLS WOULD
BE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP NEAR THIS TRIPLE POINT...AND THEN MOVE
EAST IN THE RELATIVELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. STORMS
APPEAR TO BE VERY LIKELY IN A SUPERCELL STORM MODE IF THEY DEVELOP
IN THIS TRIPLE POINT BY 00Z AS CAPE IS FORECAST TO BE ON THE ORDER
OF 3000 J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50 KTS IN THE 0-6 KM AGL
LAYER. THE SHAPE OF THE 0-3 KM HODOGRAPH IS EXPECTED TO BE
CLOCKWISE LOOPING...AND DYNAMICALLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR RIGHT
MOVING SUPERCELLS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SUPERCELL STORM MOTION TO
BE ALMOST DUE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELLS LOOK MOST LIKELY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20
BASED ON THE FORECAST POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW. THIS PLACES
MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE PRIMARY THREAT CORRIDOR FOR DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF WELL-ORGANIZED
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND TORNADOES. THE RESIDENTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO PAY VERY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A RESULT. OF COURSE IF THE SURFACE LOW IS FARTHER NORTH
...THE PRIMARY THREAT CORRIDOR FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL MOVE
NORTH WITH IT. AWAY FROM THIS PRIMARY THREAT CORRIDOR...IT IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FOR SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE
IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME INDICATED BY THE CLOCKWISE
LOOPING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH. THIS LIFT/FORCING IS NOT AS STRONG
AND FOCUSED...SO IT IS SIMPLY MORE DIFFICULT TO KNOW IF...WHEN
AND WHERE A SUPERCELL MAY DEVELOP IN THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME.
AFTER 00Z...THE VERY STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION THAT SUGGESTS A VERY WELL ORGANIZED
SQUALL LINE WILL DEVELOP NEAR CHILDRESS...AND MOVE SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. THERE ARE HINTS IN THE MODEL
MASS FIELDS THAT THIS SQUALL LINE COULD POTENTIALLY BE VERY WELL
ORGANIZED...AND MAY POSE A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS IT
MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT. IF THIS SQUALL LINE
DOES INDEED ORGANIZE...IT MAY PERSIST LONG ENOUGH AND PRODUCE
ENOUGH STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE TO QUALIFY AS A DERECHO BY THE
TIME IT EXITS THE CWA TO THE EAST WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE PRIMARY
TIME THIS SQUALL LINE/BOW-ECHO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER NORTH
TEXAS IS FROM 10 PM TO 3 AM. THE EXISTENCE OF THIS SQUALL LINE IS
FAR FROM 100 PERCENT CERTAIN...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY ORGANIZE BASED
ON THE CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THIS MORNING`S HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE PRIMARY THREATS WITHIN THIS SQUALL LINE WOULD BE
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. ASSUMING THE SQUALL LINE MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA AFTER SUNSET AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...THIS MAY
REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH-END DAMAGING WINDS. REGARDLESS...
WIND DAMAGE WOULD STILL BE LIKELY AS THIS SQUALL LIKE WOULD
PROBABLY BE VERY WELL ORGANIZED. LARGE HAIL AND A BRIEF TORNADO
MAY ALSO OCCUR IN THIS LINE...ASSUMING IT DEVELOPS.
LAST BUT NOT LEAST...WE WILL ALSO BE MONITORING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF A WARM
FRONT SETS UP ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND TRAIN OVER
AREAS TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS MAY EVOLVE INTO ANOTHER LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING EVENT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND GENERALLY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35...VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED ON FRIDAY. WILL HOLD
OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IN THIS TAKING
PLACE IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME. IF IT OCCURS...THESE LOCATIONS
HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED QUITE A BIT OF RAINFALL ON FRIDAY...SO
FLOODING WOULD TEND TO OCCUR QUICKLY IF STORMS BEGIN TO TRAIN OVER
THIS REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SHORT TERM FORECAST UPDATES FOR CONVECTION
MODE THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT STORMS WILL START DEVELOPING
NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND EVOLVE INTO DISCRETE SUPERCELLS BY/AFTER
4 PM/21Z.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 637 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/
FIRST CHALLENGE IS IFR STRATUS THAT IS MOVING NORTHWARD FROM
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS CLOUD DECK SHOULD AFFECT DAL
AFTER 13Z...AND MAY CLIP GKY/DFW AS WELL. THIS MOISTURE LAYER IS
THIN AND STRATUS SHOULD ERODE BY 15Z OR 16Z.
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MIDDAY AND THERE IS
ACTUALLY REALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A PLUME OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT INTO THE AREA EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR HIGH BASED OR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AS
THERE IS ABOUT 400-700 J/KG OF INSTABILITY FROM PARCELS LIFTED
NEAR 12000FT. DRY AIR BELOW THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIST AND WOULD
ENHANCE TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS...EVEN IF THERE IS
LITTLE RAINFALL. WILL SHOW A 2 HOUR WINDOW OF VCTS FOR THIS WAVE
OF ACTIVITY FROM 20-22Z...BUT TIMING IS NOT CERTAIN AT THIS POINT.
THE SURFACE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS MOISTURE INCREASES. THIS WILL OPEN
THE DOOR FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
AFTER IT FIRES ON THE DRY LINE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH
THAT THIS ROUND OF ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT TAF SITES...BUT SINCE
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORM WILL SHOW VCTS FROM 00Z TO
04Z. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE IN THE LATE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN A MORE SOLID LINE OF STORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP AND MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. THIS IS WHEN UPPER FORCING WILL
BE STRONGEST. WILL SHOW TSRA FROM 4Z-9Z.
AFTER THAT WILL LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF TAFS DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE...BUT KEEP SHOWERS MENTIONED WITH MVFR CIGS PREVAILING
BEHIND THE FRONT.
TR.92
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST PORTION OF TODAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO
SATURDAY...WITH VERY WARM AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. ONE DIFFERENCE
WILL BE THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ACTIVE
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...THEREAFTER...A MORE
TRANQUIL PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION /SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE/ ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AT THIS HOUR REVEALED THAT THE MAIN UPPER LOW THAT
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAY/S SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WAS LOCATED
ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THIS VERY DYNAMIC TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD BEFORE CLOSING OFF LATER TODAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA BENEATH A
STOUT EML THAT IS SIMULTANEOUSLY ADVECTING EASTWARD OFF OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE EML IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE ASCENT PRODUCED BY THE APPROACHING UPPER
LOW /AS EVIDENCED BY 30 TO 40 METER HEIGHT FALLS/ SHOULD SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION MID TO LATE MORNING MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF A BOWIE TO GLEN ROSE TO KILLEEN LINE. THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE LAYER SHEAR MAY
SUPPORT A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THREAT IN THE MORNING...SHOULD
STORMS DEVELOP.
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AS A 100 KT UPPER LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THE SOUTHERN TX
PANHANDLE AND A VORTICITY LOBE ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE MAIN
TROUGH OUT INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. DURING THIS TIME...THE DRYLINE
WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPEN NEAR THE BIG COUNTRY. THE STRONG
LIFT...DIURNAL HEATING...AND INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD ERODE
SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. VERY HIGH CAPE VALUES ON THE
ORDER OF 2500-3000 J/KG....MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 8
C/KM AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 45 TO 50 KNOTS
WILL EASILY SUPPORT A LARGE AND DAMAGING HAIL THREAT. AS THE
STORMS MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST...GENERALLY BEYOND A BOWIE TO
MINERAL WELLS TO WACO LINE THIS AFTERNOON...THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DRIER WHICH INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR
DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
WHILE TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS NEAR AND JUST EAST OF
THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON...THIS THREAT ACTUALLY INCREASES DURING
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE AND BACK IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN LARGE HODOGRAPHS WHILE CINH IS STILL LOW. AN ENHANCED
TORNADO RISK MAY DEVELOP ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES THAT WOULD
INCLUDE THE WACO/TEMPLE/KILLEEN AREAS.
UNLIKE MOST SEVERE EVENTS...WE EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO
FIRE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS
SITUATED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO FOSTER AN INCREASING
HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS CONTINUED ADVECTION OF WARM MOIST AIR INTO
THE REGION IS EXPECTED.
THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT ALL INTERESTS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
NEED TO PAY PARTICULARLY CLOSE ATTENTION TO WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY
AS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HIGH IMPACT SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
IN THE FORM OF LARGE HAIL...DESTRUCTIVE WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES.
&&
.LONG TERM...
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ON MONDAY AS THE
CLOSED LOW MEANDERS ACROSS THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
STALL OUT NEAR THE RED RIVER AND MAY EVEN DRIFT SOUTHWARD. STRONG
LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT WARM MOIST
AIR NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS. WITH THE LACK
OF A STRONG CAP...EXPECT WIDESPREAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY MITIGATE THE LARGER SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON
MONDAY...EXCEPT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE SOME HEATING WILL
BE POSSIBLE. PERHAPS THE LARGER THREAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN ON MONDAY AS PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TOWARDS
THE 1.15-1.25 INCH RANGE. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD
WATCHES PARTICULARLY FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES UNTIL WE GET CLOSER
TO THE EVENT. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD TAPER OFF BY TUESDAY MORNING AS
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND THE UPPER FORCING
DEPARTS THE REGION. COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AS THE
OMEGA PATTERN ESTABLISHES ITSELF. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN MAY BE
TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF MAY.
15-BAIN/TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 84 61 71 54 64 / 40 70 70 60 20
WACO, TX 85 65 76 54 67 / 50 60 50 40 10
PARIS, TX 83 57 67 53 62 / 30 70 70 70 30
DENTON, TX 83 60 67 52 64 / 40 70 70 60 20
MCKINNEY, TX 83 59 68 53 64 / 40 70 70 70 20
DALLAS, TX 85 61 70 54 64 / 40 70 70 60 20
TERRELL, TX 85 61 71 55 64 / 40 60 70 70 20
CORSICANA, TX 85 65 73 54 65 / 30 60 60 60 20
TEMPLE, TX 86 65 80 54 67 / 50 60 40 40 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 82 62 74 55 65 / 50 70 60 40 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1003 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
.UPDATE...CORRECTED...
MONITORING WHAT COULD BE A VERY ACTIVE AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. THROUGH MID MORNING...SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE ALONG THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA IN A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
ENVIRONMENT. EML CAPPING/MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS LIMITING THE
INTENSITY OF THIS DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY BUT IT MAY BE A
FOREWARNING OF THINGS TO COME THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CAP IS
FORECAST TO ERODE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
ALSO BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE DRYLINE CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST EAST
OF THE BIG BEND AREA THROUGH MIDLAND WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS FAVORABLE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
ORIENTATION COULD RESULT IN A VERTICALLY VEERED PROFILE AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE. AS THE MORNING CLOUD COVER MIXES
OUT AND CAPPING DETERIORATES BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AN AREA EAST OF
DEL RIO TO SONORA WILL BE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED...BUT POTENTIALLY RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING CONVECTION WITH THE PROSPECT OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND POTENTIALLY SOME TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION
SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR...DO THINK THE DECENT SHOT
AT SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD EXTEND SOUTH TO THE HWY 57 CORRIDOR
THIS AFTERNOON.
SINCE HI RES MODELS SUCH AS TTU WRF AND HRRR ARE KEEPING CI WELL
NORTH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...DID NOT INCREASE POPS ABOVE CHC
WORDING THROUGH 00Z. BUT AS SPC HAS INCLUDED THE SAME GENERAL
LOCATIONS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IN THE ENHANCED RISK...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH INTO OUR CWA THIS
AFTERNOON.
AS FOR OVERNIGHT STORM POTENTIAL...PREVIOUS FORECAST SEEMS TO BE
ON TRACK WITH LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL RUNS. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING FOR A LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT LINE OF POTENTIALLY
SEVERE STORMS...MORE AS A STRAIGHT LINE WIND THREAT WITH LARGE
HAIL AS WELL.
TB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 88 67 85 59 71 / 40 50 30 20 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 86 66 83 58 72 / 40 50 30 20 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 87 67 85 59 74 / 40 50 30 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 86 62 83 56 70 / 50 50 30 30 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 90 62 87 60 77 / 20 20 10 - 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 87 65 83 57 69 / 50 50 30 30 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 88 65 85 59 75 / 40 40 20 - 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 87 67 84 60 73 / 40 50 30 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 86 69 82 62 73 / 40 50 50 20 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 88 68 86 61 74 / 40 40 20 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 88 69 85 62 75 / 40 40 30 10 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...03
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
957 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
.UPDATE...
MONITORING WHAT COULD BE A VERY ACTIVE AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. THROUGH MID MORNING...SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE ALONG THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA IN A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
ENVIRONMENT. EML CAPPING/MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS LIMITING THE
INTENSITY OF THIS DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY BUT IT MAY BE A
FOREWARNING OF THINGS TO COME THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CAP IS
FORECAST TO ERODE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
ALSO BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE DRYLINE CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST EAST
OF THE BIG BEND AREA THROUGH MIDLAND WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS FAVORABLE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
ORIENTATION COULD RESULT IN A VERTICALLY VEERED PROFILE AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE. AS THE MORNING CLOUD COVER MIXES
OUT AND CAPPING DETERIORATES BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AN AREA EAST OF
DEL RIO TO SONORA WILL BE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED...BUT POTENTIALLY RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING CONVECTION WITH THE PROSPECT OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND POTENTIALLY SOME TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THINK THE BEST SHOT AT SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE MAINLY NORTH
OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE ALONE COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED SEVERE CELLS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA.
LUCKILY...HI RES MODELS SUCH AS TTU WRF AND HRRR ARE KEEPING CI
WELL NORTH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND AS SUCH...DID NOT
INCREASE POPS ABOVE CHC WORDING. BUT AS SPC HAS INCLUDED THE SAME
GENERAL LOCATIONS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IN THE ENHANCED
RISK...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH
INTO OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
AS FOR OVERNIGHT STORM POTENTIAL...PREVIOUS FORECAST SEEMS TO BE
ON TRACK WITH LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL RUNS. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING OF A LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT LINE OF POTENTIALLY
SEVERE STORMS...MORE AS A STRAIGHT LINE WIND THREAT WITH LARGE
HAIL AS WELL.
TB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/
AVIATION...
THERE ARE LOW CIGS THIS MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS. EXPECT THIS TO
BE THE CASE UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND MOST OF THE EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN SAN ANTONIO AND AUSTIN...BUT
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IN AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
A HUMID AIRMASS HAS SURGED BACK NORTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
EARLY THIS MORNING ON A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTING TO THE EAST ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT TERM. THE DRYLINE SLOWLY MOVES TO THE EAST
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE DRYLINE WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY. THE MOST ACTIVE
PERIOD WILL BE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHEN UPWARD
MOTION IS MAXIMIZED BY THE DRYLINE AND TROUGH AXIS PASSAGE ALONG
WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY. CAPES OF 1000 TO 3000 J/KG
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR INDICATE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED UNTIL A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE LATE ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE FRONT CLEARS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY EVENING LEADING TO
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PROXIMITY TO THE
UPPER TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING LESS RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO THE EAST AND HAVE REMOVED
MENTION. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS RAIN FREE AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES OVER TEXAS AND A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS
FILTERS INTO OUR AREA. A COOL SURFACE HIGH BRINGS WELL BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MID WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN
PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY. THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS OFF TO THE EAST
ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN LEADING TO A WARMING TREND.
ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE DAYS BEYOND THIS
FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 88 67 85 59 71 / 40 50 30 20 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 86 66 83 58 72 / 40 50 30 20 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 87 67 85 59 74 / 40 50 30 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 86 62 83 56 70 / 50 50 30 30 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 90 62 87 60 77 / 20 20 10 - 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 87 65 83 57 69 / 50 50 30 30 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 88 65 85 59 75 / 40 40 20 - 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 87 67 84 60 73 / 40 50 30 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 86 69 82 62 73 / 40 50 50 20 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 88 68 86 61 74 / 40 40 20 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 88 69 85 62 75 / 40 40 30 10 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...03
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
410 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
CONVECTION HAS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF CARBON COUNTY AND THE CHEYENNE
RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES UP FROM COLORADO.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST PROLIFIC OUT OVER SOUTHERN CARBON COUNTY AND
ARE QUITE THE LIGHTNING PRODUCERS. TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THIS AREA...WITH
LOW TO MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS AS STORMS MOVE OVERHEAD SO THINK
THAT SNOW LEVELS MAY BE A BIT HIGHER THAN 8000 FEET OVERALL. THE
STRENGTHENING INVERTED SFC TROUGH IS KEEPING THE COLD FRONT AT BAY
WHILE ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A SORT OF ZONAL
SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVERHEAD. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT BOTH FEATURES ARE
KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TEMPS FROM INVADING THE FORECAST
AREA FOR NOW. STILL EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION
ZONE MOVES OVERHEAD...WHICH WILL BRING IN COLDER AIR AND MAINTAIN
PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT ESPECIALLYALONG
THE LARAMIE RANGE AND WYO PLAINS. WILL SEE SNOW IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7500 FEET THIS EVENING DROPPING TO 6500 FEET
OVERNIGHT...AND SHOULD MIX DOWN EVEN LOWER AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT. WILL LEAVE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR NOW AS THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME FOR CONVECTION AND DEFORMATION
BAND TO ACCUMULATE SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE AND SNOWY RANGES
THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THE COMBINATION DEFORMATION BAND AND ALSO
SOME MERIDIONAL JET ENERGY SNEAKING IN FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT...COULD ALSO SEE UP TO 5 INCHES IN THE SIERRA MADRE AND
NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...WITH AN INCH OR LESS OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF S/E WYO WITH THE
COLD FRONT BY MONDAY MORNING. LIKELY TO SEE FOG OVERSPREAD THE
PLAINS IN THIS PATTERN AGAIN AS WELL...SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
FOR MONDAY...THE UPPER JET WILL WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS NORTH WITH THE
MIDLEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVERHEAD. WILL SEE SHOWERS CONTINUE ON AND
OFF THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE FAVORED LOCATIONS ALONG NORTHEAST
FACING SLOPES OF TERRAIN FEATURES. NOT LOOKING AT SIGNIFICANT CAA
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT SO TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING ENOUGH TO KEEP SNOW CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. IT
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SNOW MIX WITH RAIN AT TIMES
THOUGH EVEN ACROSS THE PLAINS AS 700MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND MINUS
4C THROUGH THE DAY.
CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
UPPER LOW. HIGHS SHOULD RETURN TO THE 50S/60S BY TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS CONTINUING. LOOKS LIKE DRY WEATHER SHOULD STAY WITH US
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST. PRETTY WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS 700MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AROUND +6C THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE FRONT INTO THE AREA AROUND 06Z
FRIDAY (THURSDAY NIGHT) WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRE RANGES.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL NEAR THE WYOMING/COLORADO BORDER
FRIDAY AND PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
PAINTING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD QPF ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS FRONT
OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. FREEZING LINE WELL
NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING...SO DO THINK MOST OF THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
IFR TO MVFR ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HRRR GUIDANCE USED FOR THE 18Z TAFS WHICH
SHOWS AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE STAYING IFR THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A LIFT TO MVFR OUT IN THE PANHANDLE FOR KAIA
AND KCDR AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY RAPID
DETERIORATION AFTER SUNSET WITH DENSE FOG DEVELOPING IN THE
PANHANDLE...PERSISTING INTO MONDAY LATE MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 410 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK AS A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW ARE EXPECTED INTO MONDAY. MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
BY MIDWEEK WITH DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TRENDING LOWER TOWARDS
THE 20 PERCENT RANGE ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT MONDAY FOR WYZ114-116.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...RJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1149 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1042 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES THIS MORNING NEAR THE WYO/COLO/NEB
BORDERS WITH LIGHT RAIN ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE PLAINS. AREAS OF FOG
WERE ALSO OBSERVED IN STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE CHEYENNE
RIDGE FROM SIDNEY TO SUMMIT...WITH PATCHY FOG FURTHER NORTH AS
WELL. HAVE NOT RECEIVED ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING ISSUES WITHIN THE
AREA OF MODERATE RAIN SO FAR...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AREA
AS PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER WEST
ACROSS CARBON AND PORTIONS OF ALBANY COUNTIES...SKIES WERE MOSTLY
CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE MORNING. CURRENT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING NORTH ACROSS
COLORADO...WITH CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS
AND POINTS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULD FIRE UP ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE CURRENT AREA OF ACTIVITY SHIFTS
NORTH...WITH CONVECTIVE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS WELL WHERE MID/LLVL LAPSE RATES ARE
BETWEEN 6 AND 8 C/KM WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY PRESENT. WILL SEE
A FEW TSTORMS AS WELL WITHIN THESE AREAS OF CONVECTION.
BASED ON THIS MORNINGS SOUNDINGS AND 700 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO
DECREASE A DEGREE OR TWO THRU THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE INCOMING
WAVE...THINK SNOW LEVELS TODAY WILL HOVER AROUND 8000 FEET ON
AVERAGE. THEY COULD DROP TO BETWEEN 7000 AND 7500 FEET IN AREAS OF
STRONGER CONVECTION THO. THE MORE PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
SET UP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH PERHAPS A BAND OF ACTIVITY
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CHEYENNE RIDGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW RATES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE SUMMIT...WITH
RAIN FURTHER EAST. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN GOOD SHAPE
FOR NOW...WITH MOST OF THE ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. DEFINITELY CAN SEE SOME CONVECTIVE SNOW REACHING THE
VALLEY FLOORS ACROSS ALBANY AND CARBON COUNTIES...WITH SOME
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ON GRASSY SURFACES AND ROADS NEAR
ARLINGTON/ELK MOUNTAIN TO RAWLINS IF HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTORMS MOVE
INTO THESE AREAS. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE LARAMIE
VALLEY...INCLUDING LARAMIE MAY SEE JUST ENOUGH DOWNSLOPE TO KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES LOWER BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS AND WILL
UPDATE THE FORECAST AS NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK WITH CURRENT KCYS RADAR LOOP
SHOWING MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...AND
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW WEST OF THE I25 CORRIDOR. THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN NOW APPEARS TO BE SNOWLEVELS...WHICH HAVE BEEN LOWER THAN
ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. THE I80 SUMMIT HAS BEEN
REPORTING SNOW AND LOW VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY SNOW FOR THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS. EVEN LARAMIE AIRPORT IS DOWN TO 35 DEGREES AND
HEAVY RAIN...SO SNOWLEVELS ARE LIKELY BETWEEN 7500 TO 8000 FEET BY
NOW. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LARGE AREA OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE THROUGH NOON SUNDAY OVER MOST OF THE HIGH PLAINS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. BELIEVE THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM DENVER TO THE SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL EXPAND NORTH AND WEST TODAY. WITH SNOW
STARTING TO ACCUMULATE ACROSS THE I80 SUMMIT...ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND SNOWY RANGES
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT 5 TO 10 INCHES OF WET SNOW
ACROSS THESE AREAS. ALTHOUGH SNOW ACCUMULATION ON THE ROADS MAY BE
LIMITED...BELIEVE THE COMBINATION OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO
SNOW AND FOG WILL MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS OVER THE I80 SUMMIT. IN
ADDITION...ANY ADDITIONAL COOLING AND HEAVY SNOW MAY CREATE SLICK
CONDITIONS ABOVE 7500 FEET. DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE SNOWING ALL THE
TIME...WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG IN BETWEEN PERIODS OF SNOWFALL DUE TO
MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW.
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...MODELS SHOW THE DEFORMATION BAND REMAINING
OVER AND JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A
CONTINUATION OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
SNOWLEVELS LOWER TO AROUND 6000 FEET BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THANKFULLY...PRECIP RATES DO NOT APPEAR VERY HIGH WITH THE
DEFORMATION BAND...SO EXPECT MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 6000 TO
7500 FEET. NOT COMPLETELY CONVINCED THAT THIS STORM WILL SLIP BY
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY MONDAY DUE TO THE STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST. WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS SYSTEM TO
SEE IF IT EVENTUALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO TEXAS. DID NOTE THAT THE
NEW GFS RUN HAS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW A BIT FURTHER
NORTH...AND ANY NORTHEAST DRIFT WILL RESULT IN MORE PRECIP THROUGH
MONDAY. GRADUALLY LOWERED POP THROUGH MONDAY...BUT KEPT A MENTION
OF SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WEAKENS. MODELS INDICATE A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
AXIS MOVING INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION FOR TUESDAY...RESULTING
IN TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR. KEPT POP BELOW 10 PERCENT ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD WILL BE WARM AND ON THE DRY SIDE. UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY MID WEEK.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY NICE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WEST
AND 70S INTO THE PLAINS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ALONG WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.
UPPER RIDGE WILL FOLD OVER INTO THE PLAINS BY THURSDAY WITH A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH SKIRTING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE A REMOTE POSSIBILITY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...BUT CURRENTLY THINKING THE MODELS ARE A BIT TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE...AS IT WILL LIKELY
SHEAR APART AS IT MOVES INTO THE RIDGE. AT ANY RATE...MOST PLACES
WILL STAY DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH BREEZY WEST FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE
AREA. DOWNSLOPING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WARMING ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A BIT COOLER FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT BUT CURRENTLY EXPECTING THE FRONT TO BE
WEAKER THAN THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING SO KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
IFR TO MVFR ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HRRR GUIDANCE USED FOR THE 18Z TAFS WHICH
SHOWS AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE STAYING IFR THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A LIFT TO MVFR OUT IN THE PANHANDLE FOR KAIA
AND KCDR AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY RAPID
DETERIORATION AFTER SUNSET WITH DENSE FOG DEVELOPING IN THE
PANHANDLE...PERSISTING INTO MONDAY LATE MORNING.
FOG AND LOW CEILINGS WITH RAIN WILL BE PREVALENT EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE INTO THE PLAINS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH
DENSE FOG POSSIBLY DEVELOPING LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS
PRECIPITATION BECOME LIGHT. LOW CEILINGS AND FOG MAY PERSIST WELL
INTO MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW ARE EXPECTED INTO MONDAY WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL TREND MUCH
HIGHER THIS WEEKEND WITH RECOVERIES NEAR 90 PERCENT...AND DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 60 TO 80 PERCENT. DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL TREND LOWER LATER NEXT WEEK...RANGING BETWEEN 25 TO 35
PERCENT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT MONDAY FOR WYZ114-116.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RJM
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...TJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
304 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
ANOTHER CHILLY START TO THE DAY IS ON TAP...WITH MID 30S AND
PATCHY FROST TO START THE DAY NORTH OF I-74. HOWEVER, A SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS ILLINOIS FROM NE TO SW WILL PROVIDE
SUBSIDENCE AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR. THE HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE TO
SHOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE 850-925MB LAYER ACROSS OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE NAM AND GFS.
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS FORMATION WILL BE MORE CONCENTRATED THERE...
BUT SUNSHINE SHOULD STILL BE THE RULE FOR THE DAY IN MOST AREAS.
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID 60S NEAR INDIANA AND THE UPPER 60S
WEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING HEIGHTS
WILL PEAK BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH OUR
HIGHER WIND GUSTS FOR THE DAY. A FEW GUSTS MAY REACH 16-17 MPH...
BUT OVERALL WINDS SHOULD BE LESS GUSTY THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
INITIAL CONCERN FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS WITH RAIN POTENTIAL
MID WEEK. UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS
NORTHEAST TO HUDSON BAY PROGGED BY ALL MODELS TO CARVE OUT A
SIZABLE CLOUDS LOW OVER ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY...DROPPING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE MIDWEST BY THURSDAY MORNING. GFS IS A BIT FURTHER EAST WITH
THIS PROJECTION...WITH GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORING A PATH ALONG
THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA BORDER. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME SHOWERS INTO THE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COLD CORE WITH THE UPPER LOW
(500 MB TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW -20C) INTRODUCES SOME STEEP LAPSE
RATES. ALSO MENTIONED SOME ISOLATED THUNDER AS WELL. HAVE LINGERED
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POP`S ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE LOW SETTLING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...HAVE
ALSO MENTIONED SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF I-57 CLOSER TO THE LOW
TRACK.
FURTHER OUT IN TIME...UPPER FLOW SHIFTS MORE ZONAL TO START THE
WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING A TROUGH MOVING ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER...WITH THE ECMWF DEVELOPING MORE OF A BROADENING
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE GFS REMAINS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
CLOSER TO THE BORDER. STILL NOT VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RAIN
POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY...AND HAVE PULLED BACK SOME ON THE POP`S.
SATURDAY NIGHT...HAVE FOLLOWED MORE OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF A
POTENTIAL MCS SYSTEM ROLLING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
RAIN CHANCES PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE BROADENING TROUGH
APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THE GENERAL IDEA FOR TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITH WARMING CONDITIONS...
ALTHOUGH A BRIEF COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DIP CLOSER TO 0C AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THRU THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THRU
TUESDAY BRINGING ONLY A SCATTERING OF CLOUDS AND A NORTHEAST
FLOW. LATEST MODEL DATA PULLING BACK A BIT ON THE AMOUNT OF
MIXING EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON RESULTING IN LIGHTER WINDS
THAN WHAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED OVER THE AREA THE PAST FEW
AFTERNOONS. LOOK FOR A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND TONIGHT TO BECOME
NORTHEAST TUESDAY AT 8 TO 13 KTS...AND THEN A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW FOR TOMORROW NIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS DROPPING TO 5 KTS OR LESS
AFTER 00Z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1112 PM MDT MON APR 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM MDT MON APR 27 2015
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE SCALE CLOSED UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER TX PANHANDLE WITH MID LEVEL VORTICITY ROTATING
THROUGH OK/SOUTHER KS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO
BUILD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR
CWA..ALONG WITH FALLING TDS.
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...RADAR SHOWS BULK OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIP ALONG KS/OK BORDER TRANSITING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...THOUGH
THERE ARE SOME LIGHT RETURNS ROTATING NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
PART OF OUR CWA. BASED ON INCREASING TD DEPRESSION OVER THE
CWA...AND AXIS OF FORCING/BETTER MOISTURE WELL SOUTH...ANY OF THESE
LIGHT RETURNS WOULD LIKELY BE VIRGA AT MOST THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR WITH BUILDING
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. GOOD RADIATION CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
LOCATIONS IN OUR CWA TO REACH FREEZING (POSSIBLY LOWER)
TONIGHT...THOUGH WITH AN INCREASE IN TD VALUES ADVERTISED FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE WE MAY NOT FALL AS MUCH. WET GROUND CONDITIONS COULD
ALSO KEEP TD VALUES FROM DROPPING AS MUCH AS ADVERTISED WHICH SEEMS
TO ALREADY BE THE CASE THIS AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY...H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST AND TEMPS ALOFT WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE...AND BETTER DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS IN
THE 60S/NEAR 70 FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. THERE IS STILL A SECONDARY H3
JET PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND A LIGHT PRECIP
SIGNAL WITH SOME GUIDANCE IN OUR NORTH. I STILL CANT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SPRINKLE IN OUR NORTHEAST WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AS
MID LEVEL VORT MAX PASSES TO THE NORTH AND COLD POOL DEVELOPS...BUT
MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. IN THE END THIS
MAY JUST BE VIRGA AND LITTLE ELSE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT MON APR 27 2015
GOING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...H5/H7 RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ENTIRE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS THRU MIDWEEK. MODELS
TREND THIS RIDGE TO FLATTEN... AND ALLOW FOR ZONAL FLOW FOR THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK ON INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS TO ENSUE INTO THURSDAY...BUT WITH RIDGE
FLATTENING ALLOWING ZONAL FLOW...THE AREA WILL SEE A SEVERAL 700MB
SHORTWAVES WORKING OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS REGION. EACH
SUBSEQUENT SYSTEM WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR RW/TRW...WITH BEST
CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AT THE END OF THE WEEK. SURFACE LEE-
SIDE TROUGHS WILL WORK OFF THE FRONT RANGE WITH EACH
SYSTEM...PROVIDING ENHANCEMENT FOR TRW TO FORM...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HRS. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED WILL RANGE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR BOTH HIGH/LOWS. 850 TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR
HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S...ON UP TO 80F IN SPOTS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...WITH SOME L50S
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL/COULD BE TEMPERED SOME BY THE
EXTENT OF CLOUDS FROM EXPECTED PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM MDT MON APR 27 2015
VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. UPPER
LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY WITH
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES IN ITS WAKE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...024
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
329 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. A BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS FOR THIS TERM.
06Z SFC/UPPER ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRES SLOWLY MOVING SE OF NOVA
SCOTIA W/SHOWERS MOVING SSW BUT NOW DISSIPATING. JET MAX OF 40-50
KT FROM 850-700MBS HELPING TO TRIGGER THE SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION THIS MORNING AND THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. WV SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED ANOTHER
SPOKE OF ENERGY THAT WILL AID THESE SHOWERS TO MOVE SSW TODAY FROM
THE MARITIMES. THE LATEST RUN OF THE 3KM HRRR AND THE NAM MATCHING
UP WELL W/THE LATEST CONDITIONS AS THE GFS. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO
INCREASE THE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS AND EXPAND
THE AREAL COVERAGE AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WERE DOWN IN THE MID 30S
IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS W/DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
30S. PRECIP COULD FALL AS A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN OR EVEN SOME SLEET
THIS MORNING BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM LATER THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 40S AND 50S BY THE AFTERNOON WILL
PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN. SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY IN
THE LLVLS ESPECIALLY IN THE 0-3KM LAYER W/0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 40
KTS. WINDS WERE INCREASED TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SETUP.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF INTO EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN
BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LLVL CONVERGENCE AND MID LEVEL
FORCING WEAKEN. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP BACK INTO THE
30S OVERNIGHT W/RAIN FOR THE MOST PART. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL
BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SAY ABOVE 1000 FT AS SOME SNOW COULD MIX
IN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE
LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES W/EASTERN AREAS NEAR THE MAINE-NEW
BRUNSWICK BORDER SEEING UP TO 0.25 INCHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO
LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WE COULD
STILL SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND INTO WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE
EXPECT THE UPPER LOW TO BE REPLACED BY RIDGING BOTH AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGHS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WE
COULD BE LOOKING AT HIGHS REACHING CLOSE TO 70 DEGREES IN SOME
AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR THIS MORNING W/PERIODS OF VFR. MVFR CONDITIONS
FORECAST TO RETURN FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WHILE KBGR AND KBHB ARE EXPECTED TO SEE
CONDITIONS GO TO VFR. ALL TERMINALS TO EXPERIENCE VFR INTO EARLY
TONIGHT AND THEN CONDITIONS COULD DROP BACK TO MVFR BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOWER CIGS MOVING IN FROM NEW BRUNSWICK.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS RIGHT SCA LEVELS AND WINDS TO PICK UP AFTER
12Z(8AM). THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL STAY AS IS FOR NOW BUT
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED A FEW MORE HRS W/THAT SECOND SURGE OF WIND
MENTIONED ABOVE. SOME OF THE SOUNDING DATA ESPECIALLY THE NAM
SHOW A BRIEF SURGE OF WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY AT THE
JONESPORT BUOY(44027). THIS SURGE LOOKS LIKE IT DROPS OFF AFTER
00Z(8PM) AS WINDS DROP OFF TO 15-20 KTS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DOWN
TO 2-4 FT.
SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS MAY THEN INCREASE THE SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND AS AN OCEAN STORM TRACKS TO OUR EAST.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1227 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. A BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1215 AM UPDATE...03Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRES SPINNING SE OF
NOVA SCOTIA AND SLOWLY PULLING AWAY. PRES GRADIENT STILL HOLDING
AND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED
SHOWERS DROPPING SSW FROM NEW BRUNSWICK. THE 3KM HRRR AND NAM12
HAD THE SHOWERS HANDLED WELL AND THE BEST CONVERGENCE IS SHOWN TO
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AREAS OVERNIGHT. POPS WERE
ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SETUP AND RAISED PERCENTAGES FROM NE
MAINE DOWN INTO INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.10". TEMPERATURES COOLING AS THE LATEST
READING ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WERE IN THE UPPER 30S
W/DEWPOINTS DOWN IN THE UPPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. NAM SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT FURTHER COOLING OF THE COLUMN THROUGH 09Z ALLOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN THE RAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST.
FOR TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS PLAGUED THE REGION OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW TOMORROW, BUT WITH THE LOW
SHIFTED FURTHER EAST, MOST OF THE SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WITH THIS
WAVE WILL BE CONFINED TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
IT`LL BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY AS WELL SINCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN FAIRLY COMPACT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STILL A COUPLE OF TURNS AND WEAK SPOKES OF S/WV ENERGY LEFT WITH
A VERY SLOWLY DEPARTING MID LVL VORTEX INTO THE OPEN N ATLC FROM
ERN NOVA SCOTIA...MEANING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHWRS IS POSSIBLE
FROM ENE TO WSW ACROSS THE FA TUE NGT.
AFTWRDS...SLOW...BUT MORE GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO WX CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FA...AT LEAST WITH REGARD TO LITTLE OR NO SHWR ACTIVITY
WED INTO THU...AND AT LEAST A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE AS WEAK FLOW
ALF REPLACES THE UPPER LOW. FCST HI TEMPS...WHICH WE INDICATE TO
BE SLIGHTLY BLO AVG BOTH DAYS MAY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE WE GET...CONSIDERING THE SUN AT
MIDDAY THIS TM OF YEAR IS AS HIGH IN THE SKY AS MID AUG.
OTHERWISE...CLD CVR WILL CONT TO KEEP OVRNGT LOWS TUE NGT AND WED
NGT A LITTLE MILDER THAN AVG.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BOTH THE DTMNSTC 12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH SLOWLY TAKING A SFC LOW TRACKING OFF THE SE COAST
ENE WELL S OF THE GULF OF ME FROM THU NGT INTO SAT. CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY CONT TO SLOWLY IMPROVE...WITH BOTH HI AND LOW TEMPS
GRADUALLY WARMING...SPCLY SUN AND MON WHEN S/WV RIDGING ALF BEGINS
BUILDING OVR NEW ENG AHEAD OF A NEW APCHG S/WV TROF SYSTEM APCHG
FROM THE GREAT LKS. WE CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF SHWRS LATE SUN AFTN
INTO MON MORN MSLY ACROSS THE N WITH SOME S/WV ENERGY TOPPING THE
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...BUT NOTHING LIKE THE TM CVRG THEY OCCURRED
LAST WEEKEND INTO ERLY THIS WEEK...AND WITH LESS WIND AND MUCH
MILDER TEMPS (I.E...SPRINGLIKE...IF WE DARE SAY).
&&
.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR AND OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
AFTERNOON. NORTHERN TERMINALS MAY APPROACH IFR CIGS BUT HAVE KEPT
CIGS AROUND 1500FT FOR NOW. AFTER 18Z, EXPECT CIGS TO RISE TO VFR
CATEGORY. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH NEXT 24 HOURS
OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 22-30KTS DURING THE DAY.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY VFR ALL TAF SITES...XCPT MVFR CLGS WITH
SHWRS POSSIBLE TUE NGT...MSLY NRN TAF SITES.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT DUE TO WIND GUSTS
HAVING INCREASED ABOVE 25KTS SOONER THAN ANTICIPATED. GUSTS
WILL REMAIN AROUND 30 KT WITH WAVES 5 TO 7 FEET EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE A BIT TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WINDS WILL
REMAIN JUST UNDER SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: INITIALLY...NEAR SCA CONDITIONS XPCTD TUE NGT
INTO WED MORN...THE WINDS AND WVS SUBSIDE LATER WED INTO THE LATE
WEEK. THE NEXT POTENTIAL OF SCA CONDITIONS MAY BE LONG PD SWELL
WVS FRI NGT INTO ERLY SUN FROM A RELATIVELY DISTANT SFC LOW
TRACKING EWRD S OF THE GULF OF ME. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE
FOR FCST WV HTS...XCPT WENT A LITTLE BLO GUIDANCE LATE FRI INTO
ERLY SUN MORN ATTM FOR SWELL IMPACTS FROM THE LOW TRACKING WELL S
OF THE WATERS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
455 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 453 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A MID LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM IA TO JAMES BAY...SANDWICHED BTWN A SHORTWAVE TROF
MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND CONTINUED BROAD CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ENCOMPASSING SE CANADA AND THE NE CONUS. THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE IS SUPPORTING SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE UPPER LAKES EARLY THIS
MORNING. TO THE W...APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF IS ACCOMAPANIED BY A
BAND OF SHRA IN NW MN.
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF WILL REACH WRN UPPER MI LATE
AFTN/EVENING. WITH DEEP LAYER FORCING WEAKENING PER QVECTORS...A
LACK OF MOISTURE INFLOW...AND A VERY DRY ANTECEDANT AIR MASS PER 00Z
REGIONAL SOUNDINGS...MOST OF THE MODELS APPEAR ON TRACK SHOWING
APPROACHING PCPN DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING UPPER MI LATE THIS
AFTN/EVENING. SO...PLAN TO MAINTAIN A DRY FCST. SECOND SHORTWAVE NOW
MOVING INTO NRN MANITOBA WILL MOVE INTO NRN ONTARIO AND THEN BEGIN
DIGGING MORE SHARPLY TO THE S TONIGHT WITH MODELS SUGGESTING A MID
LEVEL LOW BEGINNING TO CLOSE OFF JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE
TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AN EXPANSION OF PCPN N AND E OF LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT...CLOSER TO GREATEST HEIGHT FALLS. PCPN MAY TRY TO
DEVELOP S INTO UPPER MI...BUT LACK OF DEEP FORCING HERE SUGGESTS DRY
WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE THRU THE NIGHT.
AS FOR TEMPS...WEAK PRES GRADIENT TODAY WILL ALLOW LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE BOARD...LEADING TO COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG
THE LAKES. IT WILL BE COOLEST IN THE ERN FCST AREA ALONG THE LAKE
SUPERIOR SHORE DUE TO ONSHORE WINDS THRU THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 40S THERE. IN THE INTERIOR...FAVORED THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
GIVEN THAT WARMER GUIDANCE HAS VERIFIED BETTER THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. EXPECT HIGHEST TEMPS IN THE INTERIOR W WHERE MAX READINGS WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. DEEP MIXING IN THE INTERIOR WILL TAP
DRIER AIR ALOFT...RESULTING IN AFTN DWPTS IN THE MID 20S...PERHAPS
LOWER. THIS WILL SEND RH DOWN TO AROUND 20PCT IN THE INTERIOR W.
FROM A FIRE WX STANDOINT...FORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN HARD TO COME BY IN THE LONG TERM AS THE
AREA WILL BE DOMINATED BY A SFC RIDGE AT LEAST THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK.
AN UPPER WAVE WILL TRANSIT THE CENTRAL OR ERN CWA WED INTO WED
NIGHT...BUT WILL BE LACKING MOISTURE SUFFICIENT FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN E AND POSSIBLY SOME SPRINKLES OVER
THE NCENTRAL (AIDED BY UPSLOPE FORCING) WED INTO WED NIGHT. THE NAM
SHOWS THE MOST QPF BUT IT IS ALSO STRONGEST WITH THE WAVE AND HAS
BEEN SUBSTANTIALLY OVERDOING LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE LATELY. N WINDS
OF 10-15MPH GUSTING TO 20MPH WILL KEEP LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE
LOCATIONS COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE 40S. INLAND HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 50S.
SFC RIDGING TAKES MOVES SQUARELY BACK OVER THE CWA ON THU BEFORE
MOVING OUT ON FRI EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THU WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPS TO WED AS N-NE FLOW CONTINUES...BUT SW-W
FLOW AND AN OVERALL MUCH WARMER AIRMASS ON FRI WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 50S E AND THE 60S W. THANKFULLY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
ON FRI...WHICH WILL HELP OFFSET FIRE RISK AS RH VALUES DROP INTO THE
20-30 PERCENT RANGE. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE FAR
W LATE FRI AS DYING SHORTWAVE MOVES TOWARD THE CWA WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE CWA SAT THROUGH
MON...BUT PRECIP POTENTIAL ON SAT LOOKS LOW. FOR SUN AND
MON...BETTER MOISTURE ALONG WITH STRONGER SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND
BETTER WAA FORCING WILL MAKE FOR BETTER PRECIP CHANCES. EXACT
AMOUNTS/TIMING IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS HARD TO PIN
DOWN AT THAT TIME RANGE. DOES LOOK LIKE TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE 70S
IN SOME SPOTS SAT INTO MON...BUT THAT IS ALSO DEPENDENT ON SHORTWAVE
TRACK/PRECIP/CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WITH DAYTIME
LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS DOMINATING WINDS AND WIND DIRECTIONS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 453 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE LIGHT...UNDER 15KT...THRU THIS
EVENING AS SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA GIVES WAY TO A VERY WEAK LOW
PRES TROF THAT WILL PASS LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. IN ITS WAKE...
ANOTHER HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER HUDSON BAY AND EXTEND A RIDGE S
INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WED/THU. AS THE HIGH BEGINS RIDGING S INTO
THE UPPER LAKES LATE TONIGHT/WED...NNW WINDS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL LIKELY GUST TO AROUND 20KT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER THE W.
WITH WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER LAKES THU THRU SAT...WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT...MOSTLY UNDER 15KT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
307 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO SRN JAMES BAY. TO THE E...A MID
LEVEL LOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES/NRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST EXTENDS BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND WRAPS SOME MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE UPPER LAKES. AS OF 19Z...W EDGE OF THE STRATOCU DECK
FM THIS MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW RUNS FROM ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE FAR
ERN COUNTIES OF UPPER MI. CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED INTO CENTRAL UPPER
MI THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT WITH THE MID-LVL AND SFC HIGH
PRES RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR EXCEPT
PARTLY CLOUDY EAST WHERE THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE FOR CLOUDS ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRES TROUGH AT
LEAST INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TONIGHT TO DROP INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE INTERIOR WEST WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL MAXIMIZED DUE TO CALM WINDS UNDER AXIS OF SFC RIDGE AND PWATS
OF .25 INCH OR LESS. ELSEWHERE MIN TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 30S.
ON TUESDAY...MODELS INDICATE SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NRN
PLAINS BUT SHOW BEST Q-VECT CONV AND MID-LVL MOISTURE ASSOC WITH
SHORTWAVE GENERALLY LIFTING NORTH AND WEST OF UPPER MI. MODELS HINT
THAT PERHAPS THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA COULD SEE SOME
SPRINKLES/-SHRA TUE EVENING. BUT GIVEN THE DRYNESS OF THE AIR MASS
ALREADY IN PLACE WL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FCST THROUGH 00Z WED BUT
REFLECT EXPECTED INCREASE IN MID-LVL CLOUDS ALONG WEAK COLD-FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN GRIDS. HIGH TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST COULD REACH
INTO THE MID 60S...BUT DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS UNDER
WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER (IN THE 50S) ALONG THE
GREAT LAKES AND EAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN HARD TO COME BY IN THE LONG TERM AS THE
AREA WILL BE DOMINATED BY A SFC RIDGE AT LEAST THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK.
AN UPPER WAVE WILL TRANSIT THE CENTRAL OR ERN CWA WED INTO WED
NIGHT...BUT WILL BE LACKING MOISTURE SUFFICIENT FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN E AND POSSIBLY SOME SPRINKLES OVER
THE NCENTRAL (AIDED BY UPSLOPE FORCING) WED INTO WED NIGHT. THE NAM
SHOWS THE MOST QPF BUT IT IS ALSO STRONGEST WITH THE WAVE AND HAS
BEEN SUBSTANTIALLY OVERDOING LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE LATELY. N WINDS
OF 10-15MPH GUSTING TO 20MPH WILL KEEP LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE
LOCATIONS COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE 40S. INLAND HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 50S.
SFC RIDGING TAKES MOVES SQUARELY BACK OVER THE CWA ON THU BEFORE
MOVING OUT ON FRI EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THU WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPS TO WED AS N-NE FLOW CONTINUES...BUT SW-W
FLOW AND AN OVERALL MUCH WARMER AIRMASS ON FRI WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 50S E AND THE 60S W. THANKFULLY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
ON FRI...WHICH WILL HELP OFFSET FIRE RISK AS RH VALUES DROP INTO THE
20-30 PERCENT RANGE. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE FAR
W LATE FRI AS DYING SHORTWAVE MOVES TOWARD THE CWA WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE CWA SAT THROUGH
MON...BUT PRECIP POTENTIAL ON SAT LOOKS LOW. FOR SUN AND
MON...BETTER MOISTURE ALONG WITH STRONGER SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND
BETTER WAA FORCING WILL MAKE FOR BETTER PRECIP CHANCES. EXACT
AMOUNTS/TIMING IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS HARD TO PIN
DOWN AT THAT TIME RANGE. DOES LOOK LIKE TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE 70S
IN SOME SPOTS SAT INTO MON...BUT THAT IS ALSO DEPENDENT ON SHORTWAVE
TRACK/PRECIP/CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WITH DAYTIME
LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS DOMINATING WINDS AND WIND DIRECTIONS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015
AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS E ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL FALL OFF TO MOSTLY UNDER 10KT ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE. ON
TUE...WINDS WILL BE UNDER 15KT AS THE RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A WEAK LOW
PRES TROF THAT PASSES TUE NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...ANOTHER HIGH PRES
WILL RIDGE S FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WED/THU. AS
THE HIGH BEGINS RIDGING S INTO THE UPPER LAKES WED...WINDS OVER ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY GUST TO NEAR 20KT ONCE AGAIN. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER OVER THE W. WITH WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER LAKES
THU INTO SAT...WIND SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNDER 15KT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
129 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO SRN JAMES BAY. TO THE E...A MID
LEVEL LOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES/NRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST EXTENDS BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND WRAPS SOME MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE UPPER LAKES. AS OF 19Z...W EDGE OF THE STRATOCU DECK
FM THIS MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW RUNS FROM ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE FAR
ERN COUNTIES OF UPPER MI. CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED INTO CENTRAL UPPER
MI THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT WITH THE MID-LVL AND SFC HIGH
PRES RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR EXCEPT
PARTLY CLOUDY EAST WHERE THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE FOR CLOUDS ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRES TROUGH AT
LEAST INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TONIGHT TO DROP INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE INTERIOR WEST WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL MAXIMIZED DUE TO CALM WINDS UNDER AXIS OF SFC RIDGE AND PWATS
OF .25 INCH OR LESS. ELSEWHERE MIN TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 30S.
ON TUESDAY...MODELS INDICATE SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NRN
PLAINS BUT SHOW BEST Q-VECT CONV AND MID-LVL MOISTURE ASSOC WITH
SHORTWAVE GENERALLY LIFTING NORTH AND WEST OF UPPER MI. MODELS HINT
THAT PERHAPS THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA COULD SEE SOME
SPRINKLES/-SHRA TUE EVENING. BUT GIVEN THE DRYNESS OF THE AIR MASS
ALREADY IN PLACE WL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FCST THROUGH 00Z WED BUT
REFLECT EXPECTED INCREASE IN MID-LVL CLOUDS ALONG WEAK COLD-FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN GRIDS. HIGH TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST COULD REACH
INTO THE MID 60S...BUT DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS UNDER
WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER (IN THE 50S) ALONG THE
GREAT LAKES AND EAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015
A RIDGE (FROM HIGH PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA) WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES EVEN AS SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
THE FIRST WAVE AND DECAYING COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE CWA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD (TUESDAY NIGHT)...BUT MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIMITED AND THE BEST MID LEVEL FORCING SLIDES TO
THE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AT THIS POINT...DIDN/T FEEL STRONGLY
ENOUGH TO ADD ANY POPS IN FOR THE LAND AREAS (KEPT OVER NRN
LAKE SUPERIOR)...BUT IT MAY BE A SITUATION WHERE WE MIGHT HAVE TO
ADD SOME SPRINKLES TO THE FORECAST OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THAT FIRST WAVE...ANOTHER WAVE (CURRENTLY
ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE IN NORTHERN ALBERTA) WILL DIVE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND AFFECTING THE
EASTERN U.P. ON WEDNESDAY. ONCE AGAIN...WITH LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH...ANY PRECIP WILL BE TIED TO THE MOISTURE INDICATED
BELOW 850MB ON THE MODELS. THERE IS SOME LIFT IN THAT REGION...TIED
TO THE POCKET OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...BUT WOULDN/T
EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN CLOUDS AND A FEW SPRINKLES. WITH THIS WAVE
LOOKING MUCH STRONGER THAN THE FIRST...WILL ADD SOME SPRINKLES OVER
THE EAST AND NORTH CENTRAL (WHICH MAY HAVE SOME UPSLOPE HELP) FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AN UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING EAST ON
FRIDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY WILL KEEP TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL AS CLOUDS DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. THEN...AS WINDS
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES RISE TO
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES UNDER DEEP MIXING (TO 800-750MB) AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES EAST AND PARTLY CLOUDY WEST. FORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND OFFSET THE LOWER RH (UPPER 20S TO MID 30S) AS THE
U.P. IS IN ITS CRITICAL TIME BEFORE GREEN-UP.
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING EAST...THE REGION WILL TRANSITION TO
ZONAL FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND POTENTIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK. THAT
WILL PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED
SHORTWAVES BRUSH THE AREA. TIMING THESE WAVES IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT
IN THESE SITUATIONS...SO WILL SHOW SOME SLIGHT CHANCES (ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WEST) ASSOCIATED WITH TWO WAVES QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SUNDAY LOOKS
DRY AT THIS POINT...WITH ANOTHER WAVE POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THIS
WAVE...WHETHER IT STAYS NORTH OR MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BUT THERE
THEY INDICATE ENOUGH BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION TO SUPPORT
SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WITH DAYTIME
LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS DOMINATING WINDS AND WIND DIRECTIONS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015
AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS E ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL FALL OFF TO MOSTLY UNDER 10KT ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE. ON
TUE...WINDS WILL BE UNDER 15KT AS THE RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A WEAK LOW
PRES TROF THAT PASSES TUE NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...ANOTHER HIGH PRES
WILL RIDGE S FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WED/THU. AS
THE HIGH BEGINS RIDGING S INTO THE UPPER LAKES WED...WINDS OVER ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY GUST TO NEAR 20KT ONCE AGAIN. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER OVER THE W. WITH WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER LAKES
THU INTO SAT...WIND SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNDER 15KT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
306 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
LATEST MSAS THIS MORNING WAS SHOWING A RELATIVELY WEAK THERMAL BNDRY
EXTENDING FROM N-CNTRL ND INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE PUSHING TO THE SE.
HIRES HRRR PUTS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BNDRY MOVING INTO THE NRN
CWA IN A MATTER OF HOURS THE THRU THE REST OF THE CWA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. GIVEN WEAK CAA DECENT MIXING...SHOULD BE ABLE TO
REACH LOW 70S THIS AFTN...AND FOR WEDNESDAY MET/MAV ARE SIMILAR WITH
LOW 70S. ON THURSDAY...WITH INCREASING 1000-500MB THKNS BUILDING
IN...PREFER WARMER MAV VALUES WITH MID/UPPER 70S. LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...SMALL POPS IN PLACE OVER THE NRN CWA WHEN ANOTHER WEAK SFC
BNDRY MOVES IN.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
GFS/ECM SHOWING POSSIBLE PCPN THRU THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED PDS.
POST-FRONTAL PCPN ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DISSIPATES ON FRIDAY AS SFC
BNDRY PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH. LLVL MOISTURE RETURN/STOUT 305K UPGLIDE
DRIVING PCPN CHANCES THEN SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT...INCREASING MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO CNTRL PLAINS. BNDRY MOVES SOUTH OF THE CWA ON
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...KERN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1145 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN W/ LOW VFR CEILINGS CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN
OK AND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FOCUS TOWARD SE OK INTO WESTERN AR
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LOWER CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS KMLC/KFSM SITES LATER TONIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING W/ CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND A RETURN TO VFR LEVELS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/
..UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...
CONSISTENT CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE HRRR VALIDATE LEAVING THE
CURRENT HIGH POPS AS THEY ARE IN THE FORECAST. INTERESTINGLY... THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A FAIRLY STEEP GRADIENT OF POPS ALONG THE
NORTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS IS WELL REPRESENTED
IN THE CURRENT RADAR DATA AS DRY AIR MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH. ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS APPEAR TO REMAIN ON TRACK
AS WELL... SO WILL ONLY UPDATE THE ZFP TO IMPROVE THE WORDING AT
THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NE OK W/ A BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEARER KMLC. VFR TO PERIODIC MVFR
CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE EVENING. PRECIP WILL EXPAND
AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUES MORNING WITH
LOWERING CEILINGS FOR SE OK / WESTERN AR. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A LARGE RAIN SHIELD IS ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AT THIS HOUR
AS A MID-LEVEL LOW SPINS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
THE RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL TAPER ON TUESDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW
MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND
AN INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THAT
COULD SEE UPWARDS OF THREE INCHES OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH
COULD LEAD LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT REIGNS SUPREME. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ALSO
TAKE PLACE DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND AS THE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 47 64 47 74 / 90 30 0 10
FSM 48 60 44 73 / 90 70 10 10
MLC 49 59 46 72 / 80 50 10 10
BVO 45 67 44 75 / 70 20 0 10
FYV 45 60 40 69 / 80 40 10 10
BYV 45 60 43 69 / 40 30 10 10
MKO 47 62 44 71 / 90 50 0 10
MIO 45 65 44 72 / 50 20 0 10
F10 48 61 46 71 / 90 50 10 10
HHW 50 58 44 71 / 90 60 10 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
403 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...
THE COLD RAIN EVENT WILL WIND DOWN TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW SPINS EAST
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS MORE OR LESS MAINTAINING CURRENT INTENSITY. THE
UPPER LOW DIPPED MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN FORECASTS 24 HOURS AGO...
PERHAPS BY AS MUCH AS 100+ MILES...AND WAS CENTERED JUST EAST OF
SWEETWATER AT 08Z. THIS SOUTHWARD TRACK HAD A LARGE IMPACT ON THE
RAIN SHIELD OVERNIGHT. IT ALSO WILL IMPACT A WEAKENING DEFORMATION
ZONE LIGHT PRECIPITATION AXIS THAT STILL WAS SPREADING LIGHT SHOWERS
INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WELL NORTH OF THE PRIMARY RAIN
SHIELD. SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS EDGE THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD EAST BUT
ALSO ARE LATCHING ONTO THE DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS TODAY. WE ARE
RELUCTANT TO BUY INTO THE WET LOOKING HRRR RUN...WHICH KEEPS SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA MOST OF THE DAY...BUT
HAVE TRENDED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER CHANCES FURTHER WEST AND A BIT LATER
IN THE DAY THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A CLEARING AND DRYING TREND
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PUT CONSIDERABLE STRESS ON THIS LINGERING
DEFORMATION AXIS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND BY EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON
SHOULD NOT LEAVE ANY DOUBT ABOUT CONTROL FOR OUR AREA. NORTHEAST
WINDS ALSO WILL NOT BE DONE UNTIL LATER TODAY...WITH SPEEDS CLOSE TO
20 MPH AT TIMES. STILL FAIRLY RAW THEREFORE FOR THE END OF APRIL.
PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY RETAINED THOUGH MAY BE OPTIMISTIC
IF CLEARING IS DELAYED IN THE EAST IN PARTICULAR.
TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COOL WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF. MID 30S
EXPECTED NORTHWEST ZONES WITH UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE ON THE CAPROCK.
HEATING SEASON NOT QUITE OVER WITH. BUT WHAT A PLEASANT REBOUND
COMING OUR WAY AFTER TODAY... RMCQUEEN
.LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH WILL OCCUR IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT AFTER TODAY UNTIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE WAKE OF TODAYS UPPER LEVEL LOW WE WILL BE
LEFT WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK WHICH WILL IN TURN LEAD TO WARMING TEMPERATURES. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY IN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW.
HOWEVER...THIS SHORT WAVE WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE IS A POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN SCENARIO FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS SHOWN IN THE MODELS TO
STALL OUT OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW GOOD
AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING ANOTHER SOUTHWEST US TROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AS THIS TROUGH APPROACHES...SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL BE
DRAWN BACK INTO THE AREA. THIS TROUGH MAY THEN TAKE A NEGATIVE
TILT AS IT DEEPENS TO THE WEST OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THIS IS
STILL AROUND TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK...THIS WOULD PROVIDE
THE AREA WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 61 36 72 43 / 10 0 0 0
TULIA 62 38 72 44 / 20 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 61 39 72 45 / 20 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 62 39 73 46 / 10 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 62 40 74 47 / 20 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 61 40 73 46 / 10 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 62 41 74 46 / 10 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 66 44 75 49 / 20 0 0 0
SPUR 62 43 73 49 / 20 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 62 43 74 49 / 30 10 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1238 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
.AVIATION...
CURRENTLY ALL TAF SITES ARE VFR AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. BY 09Z AT AUS AND 12Z ELSEWHERE MVFR STRATUS WILL
MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THE DECK WILL BE PERSISTENT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...RISING TO VFR BY LATE IN
THE DAY.
THE COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
CURRENTLY. WINDS ARE ALREADY OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN SPEED OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE TOMORROW DURING THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS WE GET INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/
UPDATE...
ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS ARE PUSHING TO THE EAST
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF LLANO AND BURNET
COUNTIES TONIGHT. STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE PEA TO DIME SIZED
HAIL. OTHERWISE...A COOL NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE HILL COUNTRY
AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/
AVIATION... /00Z TAF UPDATE/
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ABOUT 80 MILES EAST OF I-35 SHOULD DEFLECT
ANY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION FOR THIS EVENING...AND ONLY A FEW
ELEVATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL TX TONIGHT. THIS IS
REFLECTED WELL IN RECENT HRRR RUNS...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY
CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES ON TAF SITES. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIP
THROUGH THE AREA WITH A GRADUAL NORTHERLY WIND INCREASE THIS
EVENING WITH NOT A SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT OR DRAMATIC WIND
INCREASE. UNDER THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER N TX RESIDES LOWER
LEVEL SATURATION THROUGH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT RAINS...AND
THIS LOWER CATEGORY SHOULD DRAG MVFR CIGS INTO AUSTIN SOMETIME
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO SAT/SSF BY DAYBREAK. MEANWHILE...DRT
SHOULD SEE BETTER DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MIXING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
HAVE VFR CIGS DEVELOP IF THEY FORM AT ALL.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
LOOKING AT THE 27/19Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS DRAPED ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES...LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG
THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 70S AND
80S WHILE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU TO NEAR 70 NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS.
ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LOW IS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE RED RIVER
OVERNIGHT. SOME WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL SPREAD INTO
THE HILL COUNTRY AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND WILL
RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS DRY AND
COOL AIR SPREADS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES
TO MOVE EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS A TRAILING TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WE/LL KEEP ANY RAIN CHANCES LOW (20%) AND
CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF A FREDERICKSBURG TO GIDDINGS LINE ON
TUESDAY. WE/LL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WOULD NOT
BE TOO SURPRISED IF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TRIED TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTH. GIVEN THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER...ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD
LIKELY EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER ALONG
WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 40S AND 50S WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE
COOLEST SPOTS WILL BE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN I-35 CORRIDOR. WE DO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY
FLOW BEGINNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION. THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL TRANSITION FROM NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WE/LL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED
TO THE COASTAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES SPREADING
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 69 52 75 53 79 / 10 - 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 68 46 74 49 78 / 10 - 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 71 50 75 52 79 / - - 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 64 47 74 52 77 / 20 - 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 72 52 78 54 84 / - - 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 65 48 74 51 77 / 20 - 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 49 75 52 80 / - - 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 69 49 74 52 78 / - - 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 70 49 74 52 77 / 10 - 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 72 51 75 53 79 / - - 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 73 52 75 54 80 / - - 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
251 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015
FOG HAS PRETTY MUCH HELD OFF OVER THE CWA AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING
AND DENSE FOG FORMATION LOOKING LESS LIKELY OR WIDESPREAD. HAVE
OPTED TO CANCEL THE DENSE FOG ADVY GIVEN THESE TRENDS THOUGH
PATCHY AREAS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE.
BEYOND THAT DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE CWA TODAY
THROUGH WEDS AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION.
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT GRADUALLY THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS
SUBSIDENT FLOW OCCURS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDS NIGHT.
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A COOL FRONT ACROSS THE
CWA EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES OF COOLING. UPSLOPE
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SCTD SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTRMS TO FORM IN THE AFTERNOON OVER SE WY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015
COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY EVENING OUT WEST. FAIRLY QUICK MOVING FRONT
THOUGH WITH NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED...SO SNOW SHOULD NOT
BE A PROBLEM. SHOWERS SPREAD EAST ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. SOME DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THIS FRONT. GFS FURTHER SOUTH WITH
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING. OPTED FOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND
INCREASED POPS OVER GUIDANCE.
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WITH
PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM MDT MON APR 27 2015
A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST TONIGHT WITH RESPECT TO FOG/LOW CEILING
POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND WESTERN NE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO IS RESULTING IN LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...WHILE THE HRRR AND SEVERAL OTHER FORECAST
TOOLS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 09Z FOR KCYS AND
SEVERAL PANHANDLE SITES. WOULD LIKE TO SEE A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT
TO WINDS FOR THIS TO OCCUR...SO TEND TO THINK MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE MORE APPROPRIATE FOR THE 06Z TAFS. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE FOR ALL TERMINALS AFTER 15Z TUE...BECOMING VFR BY AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015
CONCERNS TO REMAIN LOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NON-CRITICAL AND FUELS MOISTENED BY
RECENT GOOD RAINS/SNOWS. MAINLY DRY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS THEN
CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN THURSDAY ONWARD.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...RE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
859 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 859 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015
PATCHY FOG THAT DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING IN WAKE OF PARTIAL
CLEARING HAS PRETTY MUCH BURNED OFF WITH DAYTIME HEATING. 12Z
DENVER SHOWED SHALLOW INSTABILITY IN THE MOIST LAYER UNDER A
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION NEAR 650 MB. AS A RESULT...THE DAYTIME
HEATING HAS LED TO A FAST DEVELOPMENT OF SHALLOW
CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES MOST OF THE DAY
ALTHOUGH CONTINUED MIXING SHOULD EVENTUALLY BRING MORE SUNSHINE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH JUST
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015
EARLY IN THE SHIFT BELIEVED FOG WOULD FORM NOT TOO LONG AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND BECOME WIDESPREAD ON THE PLAINS BY 09Z BASED ON THE
00Z NAM AND WRF...AND 06Z RAP AND HRRR SFC AND BNDRY LAYER RH
FIELDS. SAME MODELS ALSO INDICATED A SURGE OF NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AROUND A SFC HIGH SLIPPING SEWRD OUT OF WY DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS. STILL NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG YET...ALTHOUGH SFC
WINDS HAVE TURNED NELY IN AREAS EAST OF THE I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR
WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. SO WILL HOLD ONTO THE FOG AND LOW
CLOUD FORECAST FOR THE PLAINS UNTIL AROUND 15Z THIS MORNING.
SHOULD SEE LOWEST VISIBILITIES IN LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH
PLATTE FROM AROUND GREELEY TO STERLING. WILL ALSO KEEP PATCHY FOG
IN THE MTN VALLEYS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH PARK WITH ITS FRESH
BLANKET OF SNOW...THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.
SHOULD SEE THE LAST OF THE FOG AND LOW CLOUD BURN OFF BY LATE
MORNING AS DRIER AIR FILTERS DOWN FROM WYOMING ON LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS. COULD SEE A BAND OF THICK CIRRUS SWINGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE
AREA LATE THIS MORNING...MARKING THE START TO WARMING ALOFT. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IS FORECAST WITH SLOWLY
MIGRATE EASTWARD OVER COLORADO NEXT 24 HOURS. AIRMASS ACCOMPANYING
THIS RIDGE IS WARMER AND MUCH DRIER. ALTHOUGH LINGERING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING MAY BUBBLE UP INTO A FEW SHOWERS OVER
THE MTNS AND SOUTH PARK AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD THEN SEE SKIES
CLEAR OVERNIGHT. HIGHS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL HOOVER
AROUND THE SEASONAL NORMS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS COLORADO ON WEDNESDAY WITH
CONTINUED WARMING AND DRY AIRMASS. 700MB TEMPERATURES NEARING +6C
WILL RESULT IN READINGS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST OF COLORADO ON THURSDAY AS A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
AND SHALLOW UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO
LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS MAY LINGER WELL INTO
THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
BEHIND THE THURSDAY TROF...THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE OF A ZONAL
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STORMS MAY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS BY
LATE SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE. HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN OVER MOUNTAINS AND PALMER
DIVIDE. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND OR A BIT
HIGHER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 859 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015
FOG THREAT HAS ENDED THIS MORNING BUT SHALLOW
CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUSCLOUDS DEVELOPING WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
THESE MAY GO BROKEN WITH CEILINGS IN THE 2000-2500 FOOT LAYER
THROUGH ABOUT 18Z BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING AND SCATTERING OUT
AGAIN. ILS LANDING CONDITIONS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE VISUAL LANDINGS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT AND NORMAL
DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
422 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015
EARLY IN THE SHIFT BELIEVED FOG WOULD FORM NOT TOO LONG AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND BECOME WIDESPREAD ON THE PLAINS BY 09Z BASED ON THE
00Z NAM AND WRF...AND 06Z RAP AND HRRR SFC AND BNDRY LAYER RH
FIELDS. SAME MODELS ALSO INDICATED A SURGE OF NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AROUND A SFC HIGH SLIPPING SEWRD OUT OF WY DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS. STILL NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG YET...ALTHOUGH SFC
WINDS HAVE TURNED NELY IN AREAS EAST OF THE I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR
WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. SO WILL HOLD ONTO THE FOG AND LOW
CLOUD FORECAST FOR THE PLAINS UNTIL AROUND 15Z THIS MORNING.
SHOULD SEE LOWEST VISIBILITIES IN LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH
PLATTE FROM AROUND GREELEY TO STERLING. WILL ALSO KEEP PATCHY FOG
IN THE MTN VALLEYS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH PARK WITH ITS FRESH
BLANKET OF SNOW...THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.
SHOULD SEE THE LAST OF THE FOG AND LOW CLOUD BURN OFF BY LATE
MORNING AS DRIER AIR FILTERS DOWN FROM WYOMING ON LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS. COULD SEE A BAND OF THICK CIRRUS SWINGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE
AREA LATE THIS MORNING...MARKING THE START TO WARMING ALOFT. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IS FORECAST WITH SLOWLY
MIGRATE EASTWARD OVER COLORADO NEXT 24 HOURS. AIRMASS ACCOMPANYING
THIS RIDGE IS WARMER AND MUCH DRIER. ALTHOUGH LINGERING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING MAY BUBBLE UP INTO A FEW SHOWERS OVER
THE MTNS AND SOUTH PARK AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD THEN SEE SKIES
CLEAR OVERNIGHT. HIGHS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL HOOVER
AROUND THE SEASONAL NORMS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS COLORADO ON WEDNESDAY WITH
CONTINUED WARMING AND DRY AIRMASS. 700MB TEMPERATURES NEARING +6C
WILL RESULT IN READINGS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST OF COLORADO ON THURSDAY AS A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
AND SHALLOW UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO
LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS MAY LINGER WELL INTO
THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
BEHIND THE THURSDAY TROF...THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE OF A ZONAL
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STORMS MAY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS BY
LATE SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE. HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN OVER MOUNTAINS AND PALMER
DIVIDE. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND OR A BIT
HIGHER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015
FOG IS STILL EXPECTED TO FORM AT AND AROUND KDEN THIS HOUR...AND
AT KBJC AND KAPA THE FOLLOWING HOUR. PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ALLOW
FOR ADDITIONAL COOLING AND AS A CONSEQUENCE CAUSE FOG TO FORM IN
THE DENVER METRO AREA. PREVAILING VSBYS WILL RANGE FROM 3-5 MILES
WITH LOCAL VSBYS AS LOW AS 1/2 TO 3/4 MILE BETWEEN 11Z-14Z THIS
MORNING. THE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST AS LONG AT KAPA AND KBJC
WITH DRIER AIR MOVING DOWN OFF THE FOOTHILLS AFTER SUNRISE. COULD
SEE CEILINGS LOWERING TO 900 TO 1600 FT AGL OVERALL...AND AS LOW
AS 500 FT AGL AT KDEN IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. LATER THIS
MORNING...SAY AROUND 15Z...SHOULD SEE QUICK IMPROVEMENT AS DRIER
AND WARMER AIR SPREADS DOWN FROM WYOMING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTH-
NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN
LIGHT SOUTHERLY IN DIRECTION OVERNIGHT.
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
931 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A STORM
SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF COAST REGION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD BACK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...GRADUALLY SETTLING OVER THE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY WEAK PUSH OF ISENTROPIC ASSENT
IS SKIRTING THE ALTAMAHA RIVER THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY LOOKS QUITE
LIGHT AND THERE HAS BEEN NO EVIDENCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN REACHING
THE GROUND. RAP AND 12Z OBSERVED RAOBS SHOW VERY DRY AIR IN
PLACE...WHICH WILL LIKELY HOLD FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGH
RESOLUTION DATA ARE NOT OVERLY FAVORABLE FOR RAIN TODAY...SO POPS
WILL BE CUT BACK...LIMITING 20-30 PERCENT POPS TO COUNTIES
BORDERING THE ALTAMAHA RIVER WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT MORE
PLENTIFUL. EVEN THIS MAY PROVE TOO AGGRESSIVE PER LATEST H3R AND
RAP MODEL OUTPUT. PINNING DOWN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY
AS THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT HIGH CLOUDS MAY THIN BY EARLY-
MID AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. WILL NUDGE
HIGH UP 1 DEGREE OR SO FOR MOST LOCATIONS TO TREND. FURTHER
ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS DEEP
MOISTURE COMBINES WITH UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND NEARBY JET. THE SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT SHOULD BE OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA BY
DAYBREAK...LIKELY NOT GETTING MUCH MORE NORTH THAN THE ALTAMAHA
RIVER. THIS WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE
AREA AND THUS THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS PRETTY LOW...MAINLY
ELEVATED IN NATURE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AND ENHANCED HELICITY NEAR THE WARM FRONT SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY
NOT BE TOO FAR AWAY SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE PROGRESSION
OF THE WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT. LOWS SHOULD GET INTO THE 50S MOST
LOCALES AWAY FROM THE COAST ALTHOUGH TEMPS COULD RISE NEAR THE GA
COAST LATE AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME
ABSORBED BY A MUCH STRONGER CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM JET WILL MAINTAIN A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE WEAKENING UPPER
LOW. MODELS ARE NOW COMING INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK
OF THE SURFACE LOW...AS THE NAM12 AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE
GFS SOLUTION BY KEEPING THE LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. MODELS
GENERALLY TRACK THE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA OR FAR
SOUTHERN GEORGIA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN MOVE IT JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE LOW THEN BEGINS PULLING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AS THE LOW PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY MORNING...SHOWERS WILL
BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE...ALONG WITH
STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT...UPPER DIVERGENCE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING/WEAKENING UPPER LOW. AS THE SURFACE LOW
TRANSITIONS TO A POSITION JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...THE
GREATEST SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BEGIN LIFTING OUT WITH DECREASING RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS OF KEEPING THE AREA SOLIDLY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
LOW...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR NEARLY ALL AREAS.
THE EXCEPTION IS MCINTOSH COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS...WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED
ON WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY UNEXPECTED ENCROACHMENT OF THE WARM
SECTOR OR EVEN SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT APPEARS GREATLY REDUCED AT THIS TIME AS WELL. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...THE NORTHEAST FLOW COMBINED WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
WILL RESULT IN A VERY COOL DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TOWARD
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS AT NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AN UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL DROP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND OVER THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
STRENGTHEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A FEW INSTABILITY SHOWERS COULD OCCUR ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP CLOSED LOW...AND THE FORECAST
INDICATES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA...MAINLY NORTH OF I-16. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY
COOL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S MOST AREAS. LOWS WILL REMAIN IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
FRIDAY...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN RAIN-
FREE CONDITIONS...BUT COOL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...LEADING TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...THEN TRANSITION TO OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EARLY
NEXT WEEK. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WITH A RETURN FLOW BRINGING
IN SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND A MORE PRONOUNCED SEA BREEZE EARLY
NEXT WEEK...ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION CERTAINLY COULD NOT BE RULED
OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE ON SATURDAY...RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
SUNDAY...THEN CLIMB TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING...THEN
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT AS SHOWERS DEVELOP AHEAD OF
LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT MVFR...OR POSSIBLY
LOWER...CEILINGS AFTER 05Z ALONG WITH LIGHT SHOWERS.
KSAV...SHOWERS WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE DAY
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
REGION. HAVE ADDED VICINITY SHOWERS TO THE TAF AFTER 16Z...ALONG
WITH GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH...CAUSING
SHOWERS TO OVERSPREAD THE TERMINAL AND CEILINGS TO LOWER TO MVFR
OR LOWER LEVELS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST AND SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE NORTH OF
THE AREA WHILE A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF
COAST SHIFTS TOWARD SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ENHANCED
WINDS/SEAS...CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS. LOW CONFIDENCE AND THE
MARGINAL NATURE OF THE EVENT PRECLUDES ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME
BUT CAN/T RULE THEM OUT EVENTUALLY DEPENDING ON WHERE THE BEST
GRADIENT SETS UP...WHICH SEEMS MOST LIKELY ALONG THE LOWER SC AND
NORTHERN GA NEARSHORE WATERS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES JUST EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS
WEDNESDAY...THEN BEGINS TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
ALL WATERS WEDNESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE LOW. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD
THEN SLOWLY IMPROVE ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS
FARTHER NORTH/NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA...BEFORE IMPROVING
FURTHER AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS...SEEING SOME 8-9 SECOND SWELL AT BOTH BUOYS 41004
AND 41008. THIS WAS NOT RESOLVED WELL BY THE LATEST WW4 OUTPUT.
INPUTING THIS INFORMATION COMBINED WITH BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS
YIELDS A HIGH-END LOW RISK TO LOW-END MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS FOR THE GEORGIA BEACHES...INCLUDING TYBEE ISLAND. WILL
MAINTAIN A LOW RISK FOR NOW...BUT MAY OPT FOR A MODERATE RISK
LATER SHOULD WINDS INCREASE OR A BIT MORE SWELL MATERIALIZES.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1043 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
SKIES ARE CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK SO NO
UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
ANOTHER CHILLY START TO THE DAY IS ON TAP...WITH MID 30S AND
PATCHY FROST TO START THE DAY NORTH OF I-74. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING ACROSS ILLINOIS FROM NE TO SW WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE
AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR. THE HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY
HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE 850-925MB LAYER ACROSS OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE NAM AND GFS. FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS FORMATION WILL BE MORE CONCENTRATED THERE... BUT
SUNSHINE SHOULD STILL BE THE RULE FOR THE DAY IN MOST AREAS. HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID 60S NEAR INDIANA AND THE UPPER 60S WEST
OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING HEIGHTS WILL
PEAK BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH OUR HIGHER
WIND GUSTS FOR THE DAY. A FEW GUSTS MAY REACH 16-17 MPH... BUT
OVERALL WINDS SHOULD BE LESS GUSTY THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
INITIAL CONCERN FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS WITH RAIN POTENTIAL
MID WEEK. UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS
NORTHEAST TO HUDSON BAY PROGGED BY ALL MODELS TO CARVE OUT A
SIZABLE CLOUDS LOW OVER ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY...DROPPING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE MIDWEST BY THURSDAY MORNING. GFS IS A BIT FURTHER EAST WITH
THIS PROJECTION...WITH GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORING A PATH ALONG
THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA BORDER. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME SHOWERS INTO THE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COLD CORE WITH THE UPPER LOW
(500 MB TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW -20C) INTRODUCES SOME STEEP LAPSE
RATES. ALSO MENTIONED SOME ISOLATED THUNDER AS WELL. HAVE LINGERED
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POP`S ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE LOW SETTLING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...HAVE
ALSO MENTIONED SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF I-57 CLOSER TO THE LOW
TRACK.
FURTHER OUT IN TIME...UPPER FLOW SHIFTS MORE ZONAL TO START THE
WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING A TROUGH MOVING ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER...WITH THE ECMWF DEVELOPING MORE OF A BROADENING
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE GFS REMAINS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
CLOSER TO THE BORDER. STILL NOT VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RAIN
POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY...AND HAVE PULLED BACK SOME ON THE POP`S.
SATURDAY NIGHT...HAVE FOLLOWED MORE OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF A
POTENTIAL MCS SYSTEM ROLLING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
RAIN CHANCES PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE BROADENING TROUGH
APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THE GENERAL IDEA FOR TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITH WARMING CONDITIONS...
ALTHOUGH A BRIEF COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DIP CLOSER TO 0C AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTHEAST OF ILLINOIS WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER
AT A MINIMUM. HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT OVER INDIANA COULD PUSH A
FEW MORE CLOUDS OVER CMI AND DEC, WHILE THE OTHER TERMINAL SITES
REMAIN RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL BE LESS GUSTY TODAY, WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 15KT
GENERALLY BETWEEN 16Z-19Z. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR
LESS AFTER 00Z, AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DECOUPLE FROM THE MID-
LEVEL WINDS.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AUTEN
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SHIMON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
643 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
ANOTHER CHILLY START TO THE DAY IS ON TAP...WITH MID 30S AND
PATCHY FROST TO START THE DAY NORTH OF I-74. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING ACROSS ILLINOIS FROM NE TO SW WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE
AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR. THE HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY
HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE 850-925MB LAYER ACROSS OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE NAM AND GFS. FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS FORMATION WILL BE MORE CONCENTRATED THERE... BUT
SUNSHINE SHOULD STILL BE THE RULE FOR THE DAY IN MOST AREAS. HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID 60S NEAR INDIANA AND THE UPPER 60S WEST
OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING HEIGHTS WILL
PEAK BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH OUR HIGHER
WIND GUSTS FOR THE DAY. A FEW GUSTS MAY REACH 16-17 MPH... BUT
OVERALL WINDS SHOULD BE LESS GUSTY THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
INITIAL CONCERN FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS WITH RAIN POTENTIAL
MID WEEK. UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS
NORTHEAST TO HUDSON BAY PROGGED BY ALL MODELS TO CARVE OUT A
SIZABLE CLOUDS LOW OVER ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY...DROPPING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE MIDWEST BY THURSDAY MORNING. GFS IS A BIT FURTHER EAST WITH
THIS PROJECTION...WITH GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORING A PATH ALONG
THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA BORDER. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME SHOWERS INTO THE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COLD CORE WITH THE UPPER LOW
(500 MB TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW -20C) INTRODUCES SOME STEEP LAPSE
RATES. ALSO MENTIONED SOME ISOLATED THUNDER AS WELL. HAVE LINGERED
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POP`S ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE LOW SETTLING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...HAVE
ALSO MENTIONED SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF I-57 CLOSER TO THE LOW
TRACK.
FURTHER OUT IN TIME...UPPER FLOW SHIFTS MORE ZONAL TO START THE
WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING A TROUGH MOVING ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER...WITH THE ECMWF DEVELOPING MORE OF A BROADENING
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE GFS REMAINS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
CLOSER TO THE BORDER. STILL NOT VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RAIN
POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY...AND HAVE PULLED BACK SOME ON THE POP`S.
SATURDAY NIGHT...HAVE FOLLOWED MORE OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF A
POTENTIAL MCS SYSTEM ROLLING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
RAIN CHANCES PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE BROADENING TROUGH
APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THE GENERAL IDEA FOR TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITH WARMING CONDITIONS...
ALTHOUGH A BRIEF COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DIP CLOSER TO 0C AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTHEAST OF ILLINOIS WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER
AT A MINIMUM. HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT OVER INDIANA COULD PUSH A
FEW MORE CLOUDS OVER CMI AND DEC, WHILE THE OTHER TERMINAL SITES
REMAIN RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL BE LESS GUSTY TODAY, WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 15KT
GENERALLY BETWEEN 16Z-19Z. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR
LESS AFTER 00Z, AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DECOUPLE FROM THE MID-
LEVEL WINDS.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SHIMON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1101 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. A BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1100 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS
UPDATE. TWEAKED POPS AND WEATHER TO MATCH THE LATEST HI-RES MODEL
RUNS, WHICH BRING A SWATH OF SHOWERS INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION THIS MORNING
AND THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE
MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. WV
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED ANOTHER SPOKE OF ENERGY THAT WILL AID
THESE SHOWERS TO MOVE SSW TODAY FROM THE MARITIMES. THE LATEST RUN
OF THE 3KM HRRR AND THE NAM MATCHING UP WELL W/THE LATEST
CONDITIONS AS THE GFS. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO INCREASE THE POPS FOR
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS AND EXPAND THE AREAL COVERAGE AS
WELL. TEMPERATURES WERE DOWN IN THE MID 30S IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS W/DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 30S. PRECIP
COULD FALL AS A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN OR EVEN SOME SLEET THIS MORNING
BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM LATER THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE 40S AND 50S BY THE AFTERNOON WILL PRECIP IN THE FORM
OF RAIN. SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE LLVLS
ESPECIALLY IN THE 0-3KM LAYER W/0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS. WINDS
WERE INCREASED TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SETUP.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF INTO EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN
BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LLVL CONVERGENCE AND MID LEVEL
FORCING WEAKEN. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP BACK INTO THE
30S OVERNIGHT W/RAIN FOR THE MOST PART. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL
BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SAY ABOVE 1000 FT AS SOME SNOW COULD MIX
IN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE
LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES W/EASTERN AREAS NEAR THE MAINE-NEW
BRUNSWICK BORDER SEEING UP TO 0.25 INCHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO
LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WE COULD
STILL SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND INTO WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE
EXPECT THE UPPER LOW TO BE REPLACED BY RIDGING BOTH AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGHS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WE
COULD BE LOOKING AT HIGHS REACHING CLOSE TO 70 DEGREES IN SOME
AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR THIS MORNING W/PERIODS OF VFR. MVFR CONDITIONS
FORECAST TO RETURN FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WHILE KBGR AND KBHB ARE EXPECTED TO SEE
CONDITIONS GO TO VFR. ALL TERMINALS TO EXPERIENCE VFR INTO EARLY
TONIGHT AND THEN CONDITIONS COULD DROP BACK TO MVFR BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOWER CIGS MOVING IN FROM NEW BRUNSWICK.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 11 AM UPDATE...HAVE ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO
EXPIRE AS WINDS AND HAVES ARE AT MARGINAL LEVELS AND WILL REMAIN
SO THROUGH THE DAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WINDS/SEAS RIGHT SCA LEVELS AND WINDS TO
PICK UP AFTER 12Z(8AM). THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL STAY AS IS
FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED A FEW MORE HRS W/THAT SECOND
SURGE OF WIND MENTIONED ABOVE. SOME OF THE SOUNDING DATA
ESPECIALLY THE NAM SHOW A BRIEF SURGE OF WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY AT THE JONESPORT BUOY(44027). THIS SURGE LOOKS LIKE IT
DROPS OFF AFTER 00Z(8PM) AS WINDS DROP OFF TO 15-20 KTS. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO DOWN TO 2-4 FT.
SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS MAY THEN INCREASE THE SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND AS AN OCEAN STORM TRACKS TO OUR EAST.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
702 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. A BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
650 AM UPDATE...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS HAD PRES GRADIENT WEAKENING AS
WINDS HAVE SETTLED BACK ATTM. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED ENHANCED
CLOUDS PUSHING WESTWARD THIS MORNING. WIND WILL COME BACK UP AS
THIS FEATURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. ADJUSTED THE SKY AND POPS TO
SHOW SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AREAS. TEMPERATURES WERE
ADJUSTED TO MATCH THE LATEST CONDITIONS.
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION THIS MORNING AND THEN ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. WV SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED ANOTHER
SPOKE OF ENERGY THAT WILL AID THESE SHOWERS TO MOVE SSW TODAY FROM
THE MARITIMES. THE LATEST RUN OF THE 3KM HRRR AND THE NAM MATCHING
UP WELL W/THE LATEST CONDITIONS AS THE GFS. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO
INCREASE THE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS AND EXPAND
THE AREAL COVERAGE AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WERE DOWN IN THE MID 30S
IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS W/DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
30S. PRECIP COULD FALL AS A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN OR EVEN SOME SLEET
THIS MORNING BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM LATER THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 40S AND 50S BY THE AFTERNOON WILL
PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN. SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY IN
THE LLVLS ESPECIALLY IN THE 0-3KM LAYER W/0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 40
KTS. WINDS WERE INCREASED TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SETUP.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF INTO EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN
BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LLVL CONVERGENCE AND MID LEVEL
FORCING WEAKEN. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP BACK INTO THE
30S OVERNIGHT W/RAIN FOR THE MOST PART. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL
BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SAY ABOVE 1000 FT AS SOME SNOW COULD MIX
IN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE
LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES W/EASTERN AREAS NEAR THE MAINE-NEW
BRUNSWICK BORDER SEEING UP TO 0.25 INCHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO
LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WE COULD
STILL SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND INTO WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE
EXPECT THE UPPER LOW TO BE REPLACED BY RIDGING BOTH AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGHS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WE
COULD BE LOOKING AT HIGHS REACHING CLOSE TO 70 DEGREES IN SOME
AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR THIS MORNING W/PERIODS OF VFR. MVFR CONDITIONS
FORECAST TO RETURN FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WHILE KBGR AND KBHB ARE EXPECTED TO SEE
CONDITIONS GO TO VFR. ALL TERMINALS TO EXPERIENCE VFR INTO EARLY
TONIGHT AND THEN CONDITIONS COULD DROP BACK TO MVFR BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOWER CIGS MOVING IN FROM NEW BRUNSWICK.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS RIGHT SCA LEVELS AND WINDS TO PICK UP AFTER
12Z(8AM). THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL STAY AS IS FOR NOW BUT
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED A FEW MORE HRS W/THAT SECOND SURGE OF WIND
MENTIONED ABOVE. SOME OF THE SOUNDING DATA ESPECIALLY THE NAM
SHOW A BRIEF SURGE OF WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY AT THE
JONESPORT BUOY(44027). THIS SURGE LOOKS LIKE IT DROPS OFF AFTER
00Z(8PM) AS WINDS DROP OFF TO 15-20 KTS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DOWN
TO 2-4 FT.
SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS MAY THEN INCREASE THE SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND AS AN OCEAN STORM TRACKS TO OUR EAST.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
706 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 453 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A MID LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM IA TO JAMES BAY...SANDWICHED BTWN A SHORTWAVE TROF
MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND CONTINUED BROAD CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ENCOMPASSING SE CANADA AND THE NE CONUS. THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE IS SUPPORTING SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE UPPER LAKES EARLY THIS
MORNING. TO THE W...APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF IS ACCOMAPANIED BY A
BAND OF SHRA IN NW MN.
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF WILL REACH WRN UPPER MI LATE
AFTN/EVENING. WITH DEEP LAYER FORCING WEAKENING PER QVECTORS...A
LACK OF MOISTURE INFLOW...AND A VERY DRY ANTECEDANT AIR MASS PER 00Z
REGIONAL SOUNDINGS...MOST OF THE MODELS APPEAR ON TRACK SHOWING
APPROACHING PCPN DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING UPPER MI LATE THIS
AFTN/EVENING. SO...PLAN TO MAINTAIN A DRY FCST. SECOND SHORTWAVE NOW
MOVING INTO NRN MANITOBA WILL MOVE INTO NRN ONTARIO AND THEN BEGIN
DIGGING MORE SHARPLY TO THE S TONIGHT WITH MODELS SUGGESTING A MID
LEVEL LOW BEGINNING TO CLOSE OFF JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE
TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AN EXPANSION OF PCPN N AND E OF LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT...CLOSER TO GREATEST HEIGHT FALLS. PCPN MAY TRY TO
DEVELOP S INTO UPPER MI...BUT LACK OF DEEP FORCING HERE SUGGESTS DRY
WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE THRU THE NIGHT.
AS FOR TEMPS...WEAK PRES GRADIENT TODAY WILL ALLOW LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE BOARD...LEADING TO COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG
THE LAKES. IT WILL BE COOLEST IN THE ERN FCST AREA ALONG THE LAKE
SUPERIOR SHORE DUE TO ONSHORE WINDS THRU THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 40S THERE. IN THE INTERIOR...FAVORED THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
GIVEN THAT WARMER GUIDANCE HAS VERIFIED BETTER THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. EXPECT HIGHEST TEMPS IN THE INTERIOR W WHERE MAX READINGS WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. DEEP MIXING IN THE INTERIOR WILL TAP
DRIER AIR ALOFT...RESULTING IN AFTN DWPTS IN THE MID 20S...PERHAPS
LOWER. THIS WILL SEND RH DOWN TO AROUND 20PCT IN THE INTERIOR W.
FROM A FIRE WX STANDOINT...FORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN HARD TO COME BY IN THE LONG TERM AS THE
AREA WILL BE DOMINATED BY A SFC RIDGE AT LEAST THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK.
AN UPPER WAVE WILL TRANSIT THE CENTRAL OR ERN CWA WED INTO WED
NIGHT...BUT WILL BE LACKING MOISTURE SUFFICIENT FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN E AND POSSIBLY SOME SPRINKLES OVER
THE NCENTRAL (AIDED BY UPSLOPE FORCING) WED INTO WED NIGHT. THE NAM
SHOWS THE MOST QPF BUT IT IS ALSO STRONGEST WITH THE WAVE AND HAS
BEEN SUBSTANTIALLY OVERDOING LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE LATELY. N WINDS
OF 10-15MPH GUSTING TO 20MPH WILL KEEP LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE
LOCATIONS COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE 40S. INLAND HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 50S.
SFC RIDGING TAKES MOVES SQUARELY BACK OVER THE CWA ON THU BEFORE
MOVING OUT ON FRI EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THU WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPS TO WED AS N-NE FLOW CONTINUES...BUT SW-W
FLOW AND AN OVERALL MUCH WARMER AIRMASS ON FRI WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 50S E AND THE 60S W. THANKFULLY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
ON FRI...WHICH WILL HELP OFFSET FIRE RISK AS RH VALUES DROP INTO THE
20-30 PERCENT RANGE. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE FAR
W LATE FRI AS DYING SHORTWAVE MOVES TOWARD THE CWA WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE CWA SAT THROUGH
MON...BUT PRECIP POTENTIAL ON SAT LOOKS LOW. FOR SUN AND
MON...BETTER MOISTURE ALONG WITH STRONGER SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND
BETTER WAA FORCING WILL MAKE FOR BETTER PRECIP CHANCES. EXACT
AMOUNTS/TIMING IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS HARD TO PIN
DOWN AT THAT TIME RANGE. DOES LOOK LIKE TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE 70S
IN SOME SPOTS SAT INTO MON...BUT THAT IS ALSO DEPENDENT ON SHORTWAVE
TRACK/PRECIP/CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 706 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
ALTHOUGH A WEAK LOW PRES TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTN AND EVENING...DRY AIR WILL PERSIST IN THE LOWER LEVELS...
ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 453 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE LIGHT...UNDER 15KT...THRU THIS
EVENING AS SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA GIVES WAY TO A VERY WEAK LOW
PRES TROF THAT WILL PASS LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. IN ITS WAKE...
ANOTHER HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER HUDSON BAY AND EXTEND A RIDGE S
INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WED/THU. AS THE HIGH BEGINS RIDGING S INTO
THE UPPER LAKES LATE TONIGHT/WED...NNW WINDS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL LIKELY GUST TO AROUND 20KT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER THE W.
WITH WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER LAKES THU THRU SAT...WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT...MOSTLY UNDER 15KT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
945 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM TUESDAY...VERY FEW CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING. AN EXPANSIVE FAN OF CIRRUS CLOUDS EXTENDING ACROSS
FLORIDA...GEORGIA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ARE THE RESULT OF
BLOWOFF FROM AN MCS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THESE
TRANSLUCENT TO NEARLY OPAQUE CLOUDS ARE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT
OVER 100 KNOTS AND SHOULD LARGELY BE OFFSHORE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE TRANSITORY HOWEVER AS A NEW
BATCH OF CLOUDS BETWEEN 15000-25000 FEET WILL ARRIVE DURING THE
EVENING AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO OUR HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS TODAY...STILL
ANTICIPATED TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR MOST AREAS.
THAT`S NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL! DISCUSSION FROM 600 AM
FOLLOWS...
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WERE WARMING AND THINNING THIS
MORNING.
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA WILL SKIRT BY TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS IT MOVES
OFFSHORE TODAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THIS MORNING WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND
CENTRAL GULF COASTAL STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY STREAKING OUT AHEAD OF THE WAVE AS ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE INCREASES. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE INTO THIS EVE WILL
SLOWLY BE DISLODGED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO WHICH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE
TONIGHT AS IT TURNS NORTHEAST. COOL NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS THIS MORNING WILL VEER TO A MORE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BEGIN TO
CLIMB FROM LESS THAN A HALF INCH TODAY TO AROUND 1 INCH LATE
TONIGHT.
CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS WILL BRING CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS TO THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS EARLY ON...BUT THESE CLOUDS SHOULD TEND TO THIN
WITH THE BULK OF THE THICK CLOUD COVER GETTING SUPPRESSED TO OUR S
LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THICK CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED TO SURGE BACK TO THE N THIS EVE WITH CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT OVERNIGHT.
DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND THIS
EVE. HOWEVER...AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS...LASTLY IN THE LOW LEVELS...
EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO BEGIN TO BREAK OUT FROM SW TO NE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE HIGHEST RISK FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL BEFORE DAYBREAK
WED WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL
RAMP POPS UP TO LIKELY ALONG AND SW OF A LINE FROM GEORGETOWN TO KINGSTREE
TO TIMMONSVILLE WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT IN POPS TO THE NE OF THIS
LINE...FALLING BELOW THRESHOLD AS YOU MOVE UP ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR
AREA. DUE TO THE DRYNESS OF THE COLUMN INITIALLY...DO NOT EXPECT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL EXCEED A TENTH OF AN INCH EVEN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MOST ZONES PRIOR TO 12Z WED.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S...WELL BELOW
NORMAL. NOT AS CHILLY AS RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S WITH UPPER 50S AT THE BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...A WET AND COOL MID WEEK PERIOD COMING UP.
GULF COAST LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AFTER REACHING THE NORTHEAST
COAST OF FLORIDA WED AFTN. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE EARLY WED WITH LIGHT NE FLOW..BUT A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE EAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL ACT TO SHARPEN
A SW FLOW AHEAD OF IT INTO THE CAROLINAS WHILE THE SFC LOW MOVES
NE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT THE GRADIENT TO
TIGHTEN WITH ENHANCED N-NE COOL SFC FLOW WHILE WINDS ALOFT
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENHANCING WEDGE
INLAND AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED
INTO WED EVE. EXPECT RAIN TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA FROM SW TO NE
WITH GREATEST QPF WED AFTN.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH WED NIGHT AS
SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE UP JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SHORTWAVE PUSHING THE LOW ON A FARTHER
EASTWARD TRACK UP THE SOUTHEAST WATERS ON WED AND KEEP IT WEAKER
OVERALL REMAINING SLOWER WITH DEEP CLOSED LOW MOVING DOWN FROM THE
UPPER MID WEST ON THURS. BUT STILL COUNTING ON A GOOD DEAL OF PCP
OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS WED AFTN WITH ENHANCEMENT FROM DECENT
DYNAMICS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. LIFT WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT
WED AS SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY AND A DEEPER NW FLOW SETS UP ON BACK
END OF LOW. EXPECT DRYING THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE
COLUMN WITH WINDS BACKING AROUND TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION.
SKIES MAY BRIGHTEN WITH SOME DRYING THROUGH THE MID LEVELS ON
THURS BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF PCP WILL COME AS POTENT MID TO UPPER
LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATER ON THURS.
EXPECT TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL ON WED...AND MAY NOT MAKE IT PAST
60 IN SPOTS IN CLOUDS AND RAIN. THURS WILL RETURN TOWARD 70S IN
PLACES AS CLOUDS THIN OUT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...POTENT LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
ON FRI WITH A DEEP N-NW FLOW ON THE BACK END BRINGING IN PLENTY OF
DRY AIR. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS OR PCP EARLY FRI WILL DIMINISH AS
COLUMN DRIES OUT. PCP WATER VALUES WILL DROP TO LESS THAN A HALF
INCH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND EXITING LOW. HEIGHTS AS LOW
AS 545 FRI MORNING WILL BEGIN TO RISE WITH AIR MASS MODIFYING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT A GENERAL WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS
REACHING BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE AS RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
WILL BRING TEMPS UP AROUND 80 BY SUN AND MON.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
GIVE US SOME HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TODAY. LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE...PERHAPS BEING REPLACED WITH A
EASTERLY SEA BREEZE COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON. THICKENING CLOUDS
TONIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. ANY PRECIP WILL PROBABLY
START AFTER THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
TERMINALS EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN AND POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING BY MID MORNING. SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
A UPPER LOW PASSES. VFR SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING
AS LAST NIGHT`S NORTHERLY SURGE BEGINS TO DIE DOWN. N-NE BREEZES
SHOULD SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WIND DIRECTIONS
NEARSHORE TURNING ONSHORE IN A WEAK SEABREEZE CIRCULATION DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST HIGH-RES MODELING VIA THE HRRR
AND RUC MODELS SHOWS THE SEABREEZE WILL BE BEST-DEVELOPED SOUTH OF
CAPE FEAR. CURRENT SEAS RANGE FROM 2-3 FT NEARSHORE TO AROUND 4 FT
OUT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY. SPECTRAL WAVE DATA INDICATES A
MIX OF PERIODS...A SMALL 8 SECOND SWELL WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL 4-5
SECOND CHOP. DISCUSSION FROM 600 AM FOLLOWS...
THE LAST OF THE NORTHERLY SURGES WAS QUICKLY WANING THIS MORNING AND
WE HAVE REMOVED THE SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL STILL BE HIGHEST THIS MORNING...SUSTAINED UP TO
10 TO 20 KT AND SEAS UP TO 3 TO 4 FT. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE WIND DIRECTION VEERS FROM N TO NE. LIGHT
WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH AN E WIND UP TO 10 TO 15 KT DEVELOPING BY MORNING.
SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE WILL BEGIN TO TREND HIGHER
WED MORNING.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL
CREATE DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN IN THE CAROLINAS AND
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH ON SHORE WINDS
AROUND 10 KT EARLY WED INCREASING UP TO 15 TO 20 KT. THIS WILL
PUSH SEAS UP FROM 2 TO 4 FT UP TO 3 TO 5 FT AND SHOULD SEE BRIEF
PERIOD LATE WED UP TO 6 TO 7 FT IN STRONGER E-NE WINDS AS GRADIENT
BECOMES PINCHED...POSSIBLY PRODUCING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS.
AS LOW MOVES UP THE COAST WINDS WILL BACK BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY
AND THEN NW HEADING THROUGH THURS AND WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 15
KT. THE WEAKENING OFF SHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO DROP TO 2 TO
4 FT MOST WATERS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE LOCAL WATERS FRI INTO SATURDAY AS DEEP
NW FLOW DEVELOPS ON BACK END. NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT FRI MORNING
WILL INCREASE IN CAA THROUGH LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. SEAS WILL
INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD BUT OFF SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP GREATEST
SEAS UP TO 5 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS GRADIENT RELAXES AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RJD/TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
936 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY WAS STILL SOCKED IN WITH FOG SO
EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THERE ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. AS
SOON AS THAT WENT OUT THE OBS AT GFK STARTED GOING UP IN
VISIBILITY. FIGURES. THE WEB CAMS AT DRAYTON AND PEMBINA ARE STILL
SHOWING A LOT OF FOG...ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SLOW IMPROVEMENT
OVER THE PAST HOUR. WILL HANG ONTO THE ADVISORY FOR ANOTHER HALF
HOUR OR SO AND THEN CANCEL THE WHOLE THING AT ONCE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
NOW THAT IT IS DAYLIGHT THE WEB CAMS ARE MORE HELP. THEY INDICATE
WIDESPREAD VERY LOW VSBY DUE TO DENSE FOG WITHIN THE
VALLEY...WITH MORE PATCHY DENSE FOG TO THE WEST WITHIN THE DEVILS
LAKE BASIN. AT ANY RATE...MOST AREAS ARE 1/4SM AND WILL CONTINUE
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
THE HENDRUM-ADA WEBCAM IN SHOWING DENSE FOG...AND WILL EXTEND THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO THIS AREA.
THERE IS A ALSO DENSE FOG IN A SMALL AREA AROUND VALLEY CITY...BUT
THIS AREA IS DETACHED FROM THE MAIN FOG AREA AND REMAINS
ISOLATED.
HRRR/RAP INDICATES THAT THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 9AM-10AM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 507 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
THE ZERO TO 1/4SM VSBY OBSERVATIONS ARE BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.
LATEST RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
ARE BECOMING CALM ACROSS THIS AREA (LOOKING AT 950MB-925MB
WINDS)...WHICH IS LIKELY ALLOWING THE FOG TO BECOME MORE MATURE
(DEVELOP MORE THAN JUST 5 FEET ABOVE THE SFC). WEB CAMS ARE
BEGINNING TO INDICATE VSBY REDUCTIONS AS WELL. SINCE THE FOG SEEMS
MORE WIDESPREAD NOW AND THICKER...ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
THIS AREA. WILL NEED TO WATCH AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...BUT
THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TIME FOR FOG FORMATION ANYMORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE THE DENSE FOG THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA (LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
THE SHOWERS). AUTOMATED SENSORS INDICATING 0SM-1/4SM VSBY...BUT
DOT WEB CAMS INDICATE DECENT VISIBILITY. A FEW OB SITES NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER NOW FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 1/4SM AND AOA 3SM.
A SHERIFF REPORT INDICATES THE FOG IS VERY SHALLOW (4-5 FEET ABOVE
THE GROUND). CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE FOG BECOMES VERY DENSE
RIGHT AFTER THE RAIN ENDS...BUT THIS DENSE FOG BECOMES PATCHY
AFTER AN HOUR OR TWO. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS...THIS MAKES SOME
SENSE WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS ABOVE THE SFC COMBINED WITH WINDS
NEAR OR ABOVE 10 KNOTS JUST ABOVE THE SFC. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR WEB CAMS AND OBSERVATIONS...BUT FOR NOW THINKING A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY IS NOT NEEDED (WILL ISSUE NOWCASTS).
THE BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS SHOWERS FROM FARGO TO BAUDETTE WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST/SOUTHEAST...EXITING THE REGION SHORTLY
AFTER 12Z.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. CLEAR
SKY AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE MID-UPPER 60S TODAY...AND INTO THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY. THE
MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE MIN TEMPS TONIGHT CONSIDERING THE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. WENT NEAR MODEL DEW POINT VALUES
FOR MIN TEMPS WHICH IS 5F-10F BELOW MOST GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE
EASTWARD WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THUR NIGHT. DRY
WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY...WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ANTICIPATE A BAND OF SHOWERS
THUR NIGHT.
FRIDAY-MONDAY...A PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS
EXPECTED...WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET GENERALLY
MEANDERING NEAR THE US/CANADA BORDER. THE FLOW WILL BE RATHER
ZONAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
CONTINUING INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AND SATURDAY LOOKING TO
BE THE WARMEST DAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS DO ALL INDICATE A FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE SAT OR SUN BRINGING MODESTLY COOLER TEMPS TO THE
REGION TO START NEXT WEEK. AS FAR AS PRECIP
GOES...TIMING/PLACEMENT ISSUES BETWEEN THE MODELS LEAD TO LOW
CONFIDENCE...WITH THE GEM/ECMWF TAKING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS S CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND...AND THE GFS DIGGING A WAVE
TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THESE DIFFERENCES...IN ADDITION
TO PLACEMENT OF OTHER EMBEDDED WAVES...WOULD IMPACT BOTH THE
POSITION OF SFC FEATURES AND THE LOCATION OF BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/FORCING. RIGHT NOW HAVE KEPT SOME LOW END POPS MAINLY
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
AFTER EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG AND/OR IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS...ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKY AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR FOG
FORMATION WED MORNING...BUT THIS PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION
ATTM.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ008-016-
027-030.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ001-002-
004-007.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
642 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
NOW THAT IT IS DAYLIGHT THE WEB CAMS ARE MORE HELP. THEY INDICATE
WIDESPREAD VERY LOW VSBY DUE TO DENSE FOG WITHIN THE
VALLEY...WITH MORE PATCHY DENSE FOG TO THE WEST WITHIN THE DEVILS
LAKE BASIN. AT ANY RATE...MOST AREAS ARE 1/4SM AND WILL CONTINUE
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
THE HENDRUM-ADA WEBCAM IN SHOWING DENSE FOG...AND WILL EXTEND THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO THIS AREA.
THERE IS A ALSO DENSE FOG IN A SMALL AREA AROUND VALLEY CITY...BUT
THIS AREA IS DETACHED FROM THE MAIN FOG AREA AND REMAINS
ISOLATED.
HRRR/RAP INDICATES THAT THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 9AM-10AM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 507 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
THE ZERO TO 1/4SM VSBY OBSERVATIONS ARE BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.
LATEST RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
ARE BECOMING CALM ACROSS THIS AREA (LOOKING AT 950MB-925MB
WINDS)...WHICH IS LIKELY ALLOWING THE FOG TO BECOME MORE MATURE
(DEVELOP MORE THAN JUST 5 FEET ABOVE THE SFC). WEB CAMS ARE
BEGINNING TO INDICATE VSBY REDUCTIONS AS WELL. SINCE THE FOG SEEMS
MORE WIDESPREAD NOW AND THICKER...ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
THIS AREA. WILL NEED TO WATCH AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...BUT
THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TIME FOR FOG FORMATION ANYMORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE THE DENSE FOG THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA (LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
THE SHOWERS). AUTOMATED SENSORS INDICATING 0SM-1/4SM VSBY...BUT
DOT WEB CAMS INDICATE DECENT VISIBILITY. A FEW OB SITES NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER NOW FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 1/4SM AND AOA 3SM.
A SHERIFF REPORT INDICATES THE FOG IS VERY SHALLOW (4-5 FEET ABOVE
THE GROUND). CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE FOG BECOMES VERY DENSE
RIGHT AFTER THE RAIN ENDS...BUT THIS DENSE FOG BECOMES PATCHY
AFTER AN HOUR OR TWO. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS...THIS MAKES SOME
SENSE WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS ABOVE THE SFC COMBINED WITH WINDS
NEAR OR ABOVE 10 KNOTS JUST ABOVE THE SFC. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR WEB CAMS AND OBSERVATIONS...BUT FOR NOW THINKING A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY IS NOT NEEDED (WILL ISSUE NOWCASTS).
THE BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS SHOWERS FROM FARGO TO BAUDETTE WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST/SOUTHEAST...EXITING THE REGION SHORTLY
AFTER 12Z.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. CLEAR
SKY AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE MID-UPPER 60S TODAY...AND INTO THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY. THE
MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE MIN TEMPS TONIGHT CONSIDERING THE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. WENT NEAR MODEL DEW POINT VALUES
FOR MIN TEMPS WHICH IS 5F-10F BELOW MOST GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE
EASTWARD WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THUR NIGHT. DRY
WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY...WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ANTICIPATE A BAND OF SHOWERS
THUR NIGHT.
FRIDAY-MONDAY...A PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS
EXPECTED...WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET GENERALLY
MEANDERING NEAR THE US/CANADA BORDER. THE FLOW WILL BE RATHER
ZONAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
CONTINUING INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AND SATURDAY LOOKING TO
BE THE WARMEST DAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS DO ALL INDICATE A FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE SAT OR SUN BRINGING MODESTLY COOLER TEMPS TO THE
REGION TO START NEXT WEEK. AS FAR AS PRECIP
GOES...TIMING/PLACEMENT ISSUES BETWEEN THE MODELS LEAD TO LOW
CONFIDENCE...WITH THE GEM/ECMWF TAKING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS S CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND...AND THE GFS DIGGING A WAVE
TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THESE DIFFERENCES...IN ADDITION
TO PLACEMENT OF OTHER EMBEDDED WAVES...WOULD IMPACT BOTH THE
POSITION OF SFC FEATURES AND THE LOCATION OF BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/FORCING. RIGHT NOW HAVE KEPT SOME LOW END POPS MAINLY
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
AFTER EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG AND/OR IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS...ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKY AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR FOG
FORMATION WED MORNING...BUT THIS PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION
ATTM.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ006>008-
014>016-024-026-027-030-054.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ001-002-
004-007.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
507 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 507 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
THE ZERO TO 1/4SM VSBY OBSERVATIONS ARE BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.
LATEST RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
ARE BECOMING CALM ACROSS THIS AREA (LOOKING AT 950MB-925MB
WINDS)...WHICH IS LIKELY ALLOWING THE FOG TO BECOME MORE MATURE
(DEVELOP MORE THAN JUST 5 FEET ABOVE THE SFC). WEB CAMS ARE
BEGINNING TO INDICATE VSBY REDUCTIONS AS WELL. SINCE THE FOG SEEMS
MORE WIDESPREAD NOW AND THICKER...ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
THIS AREA. WILL NEED TO WATCH AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...BUT
THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TIME FOR FOG FORMATION ANYMORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE THE DENSE FOG THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA (LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
THE SHOWERS). AUTOMATED SENSORS INDICATING 0SM-1/4SM VSBY...BUT
DOT WEB CAMS INDICATE DECENT VISIBILITY. A FEW OB SITES NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER NOW FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 1/4SM AND AOA 3SM.
A SHERIFF REPORT INDICATES THE FOG IS VERY SHALLOW (4-5 FEET ABOVE
THE GROUND). CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE FOG BECOMES VERY DENSE
RIGHT AFTER THE RAIN ENDS...BUT THIS DENSE FOG BECOMES PATCHY
AFTER AN HOUR OR TWO. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS...THIS MAKES SOME
SENSE WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS ABOVE THE SFC COMBINED WITH WINDS
NEAR OR ABOVE 10 KNOTS JUST ABOVE THE SFC. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR WEB CAMS AND OBSERVATIONS...BUT FOR NOW THINKING A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY IS NOT NEEDED (WILL ISSUE NOWCASTS).
THE BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS SHOWERS FROM FARGO TO BAUDETTE WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST/SOUTHEAST...EXITING THE REGION SHORTLY
AFTER 12Z.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. CLEAR
SKY AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE MID-UPPER 60S TODAY...AND INTO THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY. THE
MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE MIN TEMPS TONIGHT CONSIDERING THE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. WENT NEAR MODEL DEW POINT VALUES
FOR MIN TEMPS WHICH IS 5F-10F BELOW MOST GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE
EASTWARD WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THUR NIGHT. DRY
WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY...WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ANTICIPATE A BAND OF SHOWERS
THUR NIGHT.
FRIDAY-MONDAY...A PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS
EXPECTED...WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET GENERALLY
MEANDERING NEAR THE US/CANADA BORDER. THE FLOW WILL BE RATHER
ZONAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
CONTINUING INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AND SATURDAY LOOKING TO
BE THE WARMEST DAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS DO ALL INDICATE A FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE SAT OR SUN BRINGING MODESTLY COOLER TEMPS TO THE
REGION TO START NEXT WEEK. AS FAR AS PRECIP
GOES...TIMING/PLACEMENT ISSUES BETWEEN THE MODELS LEAD TO LOW
CONFIDENCE...WITH THE GEM/ECMWF TAKING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS S CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND...AND THE GFS DIGGING A WAVE
TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THESE DIFFERENCES...IN ADDITION
TO PLACEMENT OF OTHER EMBEDDED WAVES...WOULD IMPACT BOTH THE
POSITION OF SFC FEATURES AND THE LOCATION OF BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/FORCING. RIGHT NOW HAVE KEPT SOME LOW END POPS MAINLY
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015
PCPN BAND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND BE OUT OF THE FA BY
TUESDAY MORNING. MAIN ISSUE IS HOW FAST CLEARING OCCURS AND EXTENT
OF FOG. MENTIONED FOG AT KDVL/KGFK/KTVF AND IT SHOULD BURN OFF TUE
MORNING LEAVING LOTS OF SUN.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ006>008-
014>016-024-026-027-054.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ001-004-
007.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...GODON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
854 AM PDT TUE APR 28 2015
.DISCUSSION...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH AN EMPHASIS TOWARDS THE HRRR AND NAM
SOLUTION. THE FRONT IS STILL OFFSHORE AND SO FAR NO RAIN HAS BEEN
REPORTED ALONG THE COAST. HAVE LOWERED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR
INLAND LOCATIONS TODAY, BUT KEPT THEM HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST,
COAST RANGE AND NORTHERN CASCADES. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE MUCH RAIN, SO ADJUSTED QPF AMOUNTS LOWER AS WELL, BUT
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN UP THIS AFTERNOON AND WE`LL HAVE
BREEZY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THE MODELS SHOW
WEAK INSTABILITY IN PARTS OF KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND LEFT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN
FOR THIS EVENING, BUT WE`LL LOOK AT THIS IN MORE DETAIL TODAY AND
DETERMINE IF WE`LL KEEP IT IN FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
-PETRUCELLI
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 28/12Z TAF CYCLE. AT THE COAST...STRATUS WITH
MVFR CIGS WILL EXPAND WITH CIGS BECOMING IFR THIS MORNING. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD TERRAIN OBSCURATION OF THE COASTAL RANGE TODAY.
STRATUS WILL SPREAD INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN BRINGING CIGS TO MVFR AND
IFR LATER THIS MORNING...WITH TERRAIN OBSCURATION OF THE COASTAL
RANGE, CASCADES, AND UMPQUA MOUNTAINS.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
SANDLER
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 815 AM PDT TUESDAY 28 APR 2015...SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING INLAND BY MIDDAY.
MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING SEAS TO LOW END ADVISORY
LEVEL. SEAS WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE A THERMAL
TROUGH STRENGTHENS INLAND WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. THIS PATTERN
WILL CREATE STRONG NORTH WINDS AND THE ASSOCIATED STEEP WIND-DRIVEN
SEAS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. -BPN/SANDLER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM PDT TUE APR 28 2015/
DISCUSSION...THE 00Z GFS IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z
ECMWF THROUGH FRIDAY, AND WITH ITS 12Z MONDAY RUN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
OUR WEATHER AT LEAST INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BY AND LARGE BE DRY AND
VERY WARM WITH BREEZY/SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WINDS. THE MOST NOTABLE EXCEPTION WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
WILL RESULT IN A COOLER DAY FOR THE WEST SIDE WHILE IT IS WARMER
TODAY ON THE EAST SIDE. THE PROBABILITY OF MEASUREABLE SHOWERS
WILL BE HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST AND INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY.
ADDITIONALLY, THE 00Z NAM AND GFS INDICATE WEAK EARLY EVENING
INSTABILITY ON THE EAST SIDE WITH A VERY SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER
BASED AROUND 12K FT MSL. THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ONLY SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUD COVERAGE IN LAKE COUNTY. BUT, A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALTOGETHER. SO, A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN ADDED. SHOWERS COULD BEGIN NEAR
NORTH BEND BEFORE SUNRISE AND SHOWERS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST
THROUGH THE MORNING. A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AND THE HEATING OF THE DAY WILL RESULT IN THE HIGHEST POPS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FOLLOW WITH ANOTHER COUPLE OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES ON WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO CLOSER
AGREEMENT THAT THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL
RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WARNER MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN LAKE AND EASTERN MODOC
COUNTIES. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SIMPLY HAVE A COOLER DAY WITH
MORNING CLOUDS THAT WILL DIMINISH LATER IN THE DAY.
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE ON
THURSDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL BECOME MORE
COMPLEX AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE
LOOKS TO RETROGRADE ON FRIDAY WHILE A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND ANOTHER TROUGH OFFSHORE FROM CALIFORNIA MOVES CLOSER
TO THE COAST. THIS SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE UPPER FLOW COULD PRODUCE
WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA AND THERE IS A
MINIMAL/AROUND 10% PROBABILITY OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OR A
THUNDERSTORM EXTENDING FARTHER NORTH INTO MODOC COUNTY.
THE NORTHERN BRANCH MAY RESUME ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER DURING
THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF UNCERTAIN STRENGTH. A
5% TO 10% CHANCE OF FAR EAST SIDE SHOWERS HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR
SATURDAY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE/10-15% OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING FAR EAST
SIDE SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY. MOST OF THE AREA LOOKS TO SIMPLY HAVE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING, BUT
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, THE GFS IS MUCH STRONGER AND DEEPER THAN
THE ECMWF WITH ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THUS, THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS HIGHER THAN
ON THE WEEKEND THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON
TO 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
506 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015
FOG HAS PRETTY MUCH HELD OFF OVER THE CWA AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING
AND DENSE FOG FORMATION LOOKING LESS LIKELY OR WIDESPREAD. HAVE
OPTED TO CANCEL THE DENSE FOG ADVY GIVEN THESE TRENDS THOUGH
PATCHY AREAS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE.
BEYOND THAT DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE CWA TODAY
THROUGH WEDS AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION.
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT GRADUALLY THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS
SUBSIDENT FLOW OCCURS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDS NIGHT.
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A COOL FRONT ACROSS THE
CWA EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES OF COOLING. UPSLOPE
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SCTD SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTRMS TO FORM IN THE AFTERNOON OVER SE WY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015
COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY EVENING OUT WEST. FAIRLY QUICK MOVING FRONT
THOUGH WITH NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED...SO SNOW SHOULD NOT
BE A PROBLEM. SHOWERS SPREAD EAST ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. SOME DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THIS FRONT. GFS FURTHER SOUTH WITH
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING. OPTED FOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND
INCREASED POPS OVER GUIDANCE.
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WITH
PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 504 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SOME AREAS.
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE HAS THESE AREAS BREAKING UP SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. LAST TO LIFT WILL BE KCYS AS A SOUTHEAST WIND PREVAILS.
ALL AIRPORTS SHOULD BE VFR BY 16Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015
CONCERNS TO REMAIN LOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NON-CRITICAL AND FUELS MOISTENED BY
RECENT GOOD RAINS/SNOWS. MAINLY DRY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS THEN
CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN THURSDAY ONWARD.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...RE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
225 PM MST TUE APR 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A WARMING TREND...WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS EACH DAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. A WEAK PACIFIC STORM MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
MOST OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...ACTIVITY ON THE RIM STARTED LATE THIS MORNING AND HAS
SLOWLY BE DRIFTING TO THE S-SW WITH THESE STORMS DISSIPATING BEFORE
GETTING TO A SAN CARLOS TO CLIFTON LINE. LATEST HRRR RUNS STILL
HINTING AT SOME WEAK STORMS GETTING AS FAR SOUTH AS A BYLAS TO
CLIFTON LINE THIS EVENING SO HAVE LEANED THE FORECAST IN THAT
DIRECTION. MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS IS GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40
MPH.
AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK DAYTIME HIGHS WILL HEAT UP WITH THE WARMEST HIGHS OF 2015 SO
FAR ON TAP FOR EITHER THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY. ENOUGH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING STORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON SATURDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASING
THIS WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER SYSTEM. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDER...TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY INTO
NEXT TUESDAY AT THIS TIME. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALSO SHOW A COOLING
TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/18Z. N OF A KSAD-CLFT LINE...TIL 29/03Z
SCT-BKN 10-12K FT AGL WITH WDLY SCTD -SHRA/TS GUSTS TO 35 KTS. AFT
29/03Z CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY DECREASING. ELSEWHERE...SKC-FEW 08-
10KFT AGL. SFC WINDS ELY 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS DECREASING
THIS EVENING TO 7-12 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A BYLAS TO CLIFTON LINE INTO THIS EVENING.
ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING STORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH FRIDAY. GUSTY
EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING BUT WILL PICK UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS TODAY. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB EACH DAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS PEAKING ABOUT
10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DEW POINTS
STEADILY DROPPING SEVERAL DEGREES EACH DAY. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE NEXT WEEKEND WITH A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.CLIMATE...MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE FORECAST THIS WEEK
WITH TUCSON HAVING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SEEING THE FIRST 95 DEGREE HIGH
OF 2015 ON EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE 1ST 95
DEGREE DATE FOR TUCSON IS MAY 2ND, BUT SINCE 2000 THE AVERAGE DATE
HAS BEEN APRIL 22ND. A FEW SPOTS IN FAR WRN PIMA COUNTY WILL BE NEAR
RECORD HIGHS...ESPECIALLY ORGAN PIPE CACTUS NATIONAL MONUMENT.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
1012 AM MST TUE APR 28 2015
.UPDATE...
JUST A MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO PRECIP CHANCES FOR SRN GILA COUNTY EAST OF
GLOBE...PRIMARILY TO KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. WEAK VORT MAX CURRENTLY ROTATING SOUTH ALONG THE AZ/NM
BORDER PER WV SAT IMAGERY. VIS SAT PICS SHOW FIELD OF STRATO-CU
MOVING ALONG WITH IT AND A FEW SHOWERS KICKING OFF THE WHITE MTNS.
THE 28.09Z SREF INDICATES SOME MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THIS
AFTN/EVE BUT NOT MUCH...LOW PROB OF ABOVE 250 J/KG. WHILE THE 28.12Z
FGZ SOUNDING HAD A SUBSTANTIAL STABLE/SUBSIDENCE LAYER...THE ABQ
SOUNDING WAS NOTABLE MORE MOIST THROUGH THE COLUMN AND PWAT VALUES
WERE JUST A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF TYPICAL PER SPC SOUNDING CLIMO
PAGE. SPC HRRR BROWSER DEPICTS THE PAST SIX RUNS DEVELOPING SHOWERS
ALONG THE EAST RIM TO THE WHITE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...REALLY SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE WITH
THAT THUS I/VE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.
OTHERWISE EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE MORNING THEN
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THOSE WINDS ARE PROMOTING A
MUCH WARMER MORNING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WITH MOST AREAS 5-15F
WARMER. WARMING SHOULD LEVEL OFF THOUGH YIELDING MAX TEMPS ABOUT 3-7F
WARMER THAN MONDAY.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
OUR EAST WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER EASTERN ARIZONA
TODAY. DRY WEATHER WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL RAPIDLY
TAKE PLACE THIS WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS
APPROACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK DURING THE LATTER PARK OF THE WEEK.
FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...THE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL.
&&
.DISCUSSION..
THE VERY WESTERN FRINGES OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
CONTINUES TO AFFECT EASTERN ARIZONA WITH OCCASIONAL STRATO-
CU...WHILE THE PACIFIC RIDGE SLOWLY EDGES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ARIZONA. SUFFICIENT REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK
VORTICITY LOBE MOVING FROM NORTHEAST ARIZONA THIS MORNING INTO EAST-
CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SPARK OFF ISOLATED SHOWERS
POTENTIALLY AFFECTING EASTERN GILA COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...SLIGHT
WARMING ALOFT AND DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A
BUMP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER YESTERDAY AS OUR WESTERN DESERTS
SHOULD REACH INTO THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE WHILE THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA DESERTS PEAK NEAR 90 DEGREES.
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND THE PACIFIC RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH 500MB HEIGHTS OF 578-580DM
THROUGH THE PERIOD. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM AROUND 21C ON
WEDNESDAY TO 24C ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
CONTINUING WARMING THROUGH THE WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER THE DESERTS. THESE READINGS STILL
FALL SHORT OF RECORDS BY A FEW DEGREES...BUT WILL BE AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AS A BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. COAST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO...BUT STILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
HEIGHTS ALOFT BEGIN TO FALL SLIGHTLY STARTING SATURDAY...BUT NOT
MUCH COOLING WILL BE REALIZED INITIALLY AS HIGHS AGAIN SHOULD TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE DESERTS. GFS AND EUROPEAN OPERATIONAL
AND ENSEMBLES MEANS ARE STILL ADVERTISING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE REGION SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT HAVE PUSHED
BACK TIMING SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THIS WILL DELAY
COOLER TEMPERATURES BY AROUND A DAY AND PUSH ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN
BACK TO NEXT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AND LIKELY LAST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING ACROSS THE PHOENIX METRO
AREA. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KT ARE EXPECTED WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 25 KT. WINDS WILL ABATE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER A SWITCH
TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING AT KIPL/KBLH.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A GENERAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH
FRIDAY. SOME COOLING WILL FOLLOW DURING THE WEEKEND...THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP
INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT FOLLOWING
TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...INIGUEZ/HIRSCH
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
1005 AM MST TUE APR 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A QUICK WARMING TREND...WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AGAIN TODAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SUNNY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE
EXCEPTION WAS NE OF TUCSON WHERE THERE WERE SOME PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. UPPER AIR PLOTS
THIS MORNING PLACED 500 MB HIGH IN NEVADA WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
AREA. HOWEVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...FLOW OVER THE
WHITE MTNS WILL BECOME MORE NE THUS STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY HAVE
A CHANCE TO MOVE OFF THE MTN A LITTLE FURTHER SW THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST. LATEST HRRR RUNS ARE DEPICTING SOME WEAK CELLS DOWN AS FAR
SOUTH AS CLIFTON IN GREENLEE COUNTY AND INTO THE SAFFORD VALLEY AND
POSSIBLY THE PINALENOS IN GRAHAM COUNTY. UOFA WRF RUNS ARE ALSO IN
LINE WITH ABOVE THINKING. THUS WILL RUN OUT AN UPDATE TO THE
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING FOR GRAHAM AND
GREENLEE COUNTIES. NOT EXPECTING MUCH RAIN WITH MAIN THREAT BEING
GUSTY WINDS NEAR STORMS. SPEAKING OF GUSTY WINDS...THE EASTERLY
GRADIENT KICKED IN THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE
FOR AREAS PRONE TO AN EAST WIND. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST HIGHS LOOK OK.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/12Z. FEW-SCT CLOUDS 10-12K FT
AGL...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF KTUS. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHC TO CHC -SHRA N OF A KSAD TO KCLT LINE.
ELY WINDS 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING...LCLY
HIGHER GUSTS NR KTUS AND KDUG THRU 28/20Z THEN GRADUALLY EASING TO
7-12 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A FEW MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH
FRIDAY. GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 MPH EXPECTED AND GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH.
LOCALLY PRONE AREAS TO AN EASTERLY WIND SUCH AS PORTIONS OF THE
TUCSON METRO AREA WILL LIKELY SEE WIND SPEEDS 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS
OVER 30 MPH. THE EASTERLY WINDS WILL TAPER OFF LATER THIS AFTERNOON
BUT WILL PICK UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS TO
TODAY. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB EACH DAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS PEAKING ABOUT
10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DEW POINTS
STEADILY DROPPING SEVERAL DEGREES EACH DAY. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE NEXT WEEKEND WITH A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
250 PM MDT TUE APR 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT TUE APR 28 2015
QUIET WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE WESTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER COLORADO. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TODAY WILL LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE 20S...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. HIGHER AREAS COULD PICK SEE UP TO AN INCH OF
SNOWFALL IN SPOTTY AREAS. OTHERWISE SOUTHEAST PLAINS LOOK VERY
STABLE...AND ALTHOUGH HRRR IS PRINTING OUT SOME LIGHT QPF IN SPOTTY
AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...AM NOT TOO OPTIMISTIC THAT THIS
WILL HAPPEN GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A CAP IN MODEL SOUNDINGS. WILL
CONFINE POPS TO THE CONTDVD REGION FOR NOW. ANY PRECIPITATION
SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. LEE TROF
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SE MTS/I-
25 CORRIDOR.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS EVEN DRIER THAN TODAY...THOUGH SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MTS
IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE
70S FOR THE PLAINS...60S FOR THE VALLEYS...40S AND 50S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. -KT
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT TUE APR 28 2015
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING
INTO THE STATE BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...AS A
SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES TRANSLATES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THIS
EMBEDDED WAVE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING AND
NORTHERN COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE TAIL END OF THE SYSTEM
SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANY CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHWESTERN MTS TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING ALOFT UNDER
THE BUILDING RIDGE. SOME INCREASED MOISTURE WITHIN THE INCREASING
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HELPS TO DEVELOP GENERALLY ISOLATED CONVECTION
OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON THURSDAY...WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW
AND WARM AIR ALOFT HELPING TO BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S AND
80S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THURSDAY...WITH MAINLY 50S AND 60S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LATEST MODELS ARE A TAD FURTHER SOUTH
WITH THE PASSING WAVE THURSDAY NIGHT...OWNING TO A STRONGER COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS AND A FEW POSSIBLE
SHOWERS OR STORMS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. INCREASING MOISTURE AND THE TAIL END OF THE PASSING WAVE TO
HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ON FRIDAY...WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER AND NEAR THE MTS
LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS SPREADING OUT ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND
PLAINS...WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE PLAINS
WITHIN DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. FRIDAYS HIGHS TO BE SOME
5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS.
SATURDAY-TUESDAY...GENERALLY WEAK WESTERLY FLOW PROGGED ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SEVERAL MINOR WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW LEADING TO MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE DESERT SW COULD BRING BETTER
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT TUE APR 28 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WINDS UNDER 10 KTS. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KT/MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
328 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-TONIGHT...THE TREND OF THE RADAR MOSAIC LOOP THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS HAS BEEN TO HAVE THE STORMS PUSH TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/TROUGH MOVED THROUGH INDIAN RIVER AND
OSCEOLA COUNTIES THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF OKEECHOBEE...SAINT
LUCIE AND MARTIN AND INTO THE ATLANTIC. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN FROM
THE LOW CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LOCAL HRRR MODEL IS A LITTLE
SLOW IN HAVING THE RAIN EXITING AT 7 PM/23Z. CANT RULE OUT LIGHT
RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS MID LEVEL IMPULSES CROSS
OVERHEAD AND THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE 250MB JET APPROACHES
FLORIDA.
ON THE MAP...THE DEVELOPING LOW SOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA
LIFTS NORTHEAST TO NORTHERN FLORIDA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND IN THE
ATLANTIC EAST OF GEORGIA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING
THE STALLING BOUNDARY VICINITY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE LIFTS NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS EXTENDING FROM THE LOW
PUSHES ACROSS FLORIDA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER THE KEY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHWEST WED MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
MID LEVEL IMPULSES CROSSING OVERHEAD AND THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF
THE 250MB JET APPROACHING FLORIDA ENHANCES RAIN CHANCES TO AROUND 50
PERCENT THIS EVENING THEN TAPERING OFF TO PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES FROM THE LOW OVERCAST SKIES THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
WED...LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST. WINDS ABOVE THE
SURFACE FORECAST TO BE SOUTHWEST AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HAS
YET TO CLEAR FLORIDA. THIS WILL KEEP MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE..500MB IMPULSES AND RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE 250MB JET
OVER THE AREA RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES INITIALLY THEN
CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR CLOUDINESS LIFTS EAST AND AWAY.
THU-THU NIGHT...(MODIFIED PREV DISC) THE SURFACE LOW PULLING AWAY
FROM THE REGION UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS AN ASCD COLD FRONT
PULLS SOUTHWARD AND EAST WELL AWAY FROM ECFL. DRIER AIR WL SLOWLY
SLIDE DOWN THE PENINSULA. LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY VEER TO N/NNE BY EARLY EVENING. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S...EXCEPT SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE INTO THE INTERIOR AND AWAY
FROM LARGER METROPOLITAN AREAS.
FRI-MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST TO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER INFLUENCE. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN BELOW
20 PERCENT. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING AN ISOLD SHRA DURING THIS
STRETCH WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OR PERHAPS OVER THE TREASURE
COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. SLIGHTLY UNSEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
(HIGHS/LOWS) FOR FRI-SAT WITH NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS AGAIN FOR SUN-
MON.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR THIS EVENING AND TEMPO IFR 00Z-
15Z.
&&
.MARINE...NOAA BUOY 009 WAS RECORDING SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 12 TO 14
KNOTS AND 2 FOOT SEAS. THE TWO SCRIPPS BUOYS AT 4 AND 6NM OFF THE
BEACH WERE RECORDING 1 TO 2 FOOT SEAS.
TONIGHT-WED...SOUTHEAST WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 15 KNOTS OR
LESS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO TRACKS NORTHEAST TO NORTHERN FLORIDA THEN EAST OF GEORGIA BY
DAYS END WEDNESDAY.
THU-SAT...WINDS BECOMING W/NW ON THU...THEN NW/N THU NIGHT- FRI.
LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEEDS AT PRESENT DUE TO OVERALL
STRENGTH OF LOW/PLACEMENT/EXACT TRACK. POST LOW PRESSURE GRADIENT
SLOWLY RELAXES THU INTO FRI...THEN FALLING BACK TO AOB 10 KTS FOR
SAT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 68 85 66 79 / 40 50 10 10
MCO 67 87 67 82 / 40 40 10 10
MLB 69 88 67 80 / 50 40 10 10
VRB 67 89 67 83 / 50 40 10 10
LEE 69 85 67 79 / 40 40 10 10
SFB 68 87 67 80 / 40 50 10 20
ORL 69 87 68 81 / 40 50 10 20
FPR 69 88 67 84 / 50 40 20 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WIMMER
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
257 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
SIMILAR TO TODAY, THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WILL BE COMPLEX. A
SURFACE LOW IS SITUATED SOUTH OF LOUISIANA WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING WEST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH NW FLORIDA TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT
OF TIMING AND EXACT LOCATION OF THE LOW. THE GFS AND HRRR SHOW
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASING AFTER 03Z. POPS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT. THE STRENGTH OF THE STORMS WILL
DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE AMOUNT OF TIME IN THE WARM
SECTOR. WITH 500- 1000 J/KG CAPE AND 50-60 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR,
SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 60S.
.SHORT TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE PARENT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS
MAY LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. HOWEVER, WITH THE LOW EXITING THE REGION, SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR OF BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
LOWS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING TO BE IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS ON
THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...
A MODEST UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD, KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY AND TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY] MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH PERIODS OF IFR AFTER 06Z DUE TO FOG AND LOW CEILINGS.
MENTIONED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH RAIN
CHANCES DECREASING TOMORROW.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTHEAST OR THE AREA AND OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH BRIEF
PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
REMAIN NEAR EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT, WITH OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS THAN AN INCH.
WHILE LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE, THE EXPECTED AVERAGE
TOTALS SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS OUR
AREA. SOME AREA RIVERS MAY SEE INCREASED FLOWS IN THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, BUT NOT MANY SHOULD REACH FLOOD STAGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 66 79 56 78 56 / 50 40 10 0 0
PANAMA CITY 68 73 57 75 60 / 40 30 10 0 0
DOTHAN 62 71 53 74 54 / 60 40 10 0 0
ALBANY 61 71 52 74 53 / 60 50 20 0 0
VALDOSTA 63 78 55 79 55 / 50 50 10 0 0
CROSS CITY 66 80 58 77 57 / 50 50 10 0 0
APALACHICOLA 70 79 59 76 60 / 40 30 10 0 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL BAY-
COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL GULF-SOUTH WALTON.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR APALACHEE
BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER
TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS
FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...WESTON
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...CAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1215 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
SKIES ARE CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK SO NO
UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
ANOTHER CHILLY START TO THE DAY IS ON TAP...WITH MID 30S AND
PATCHY FROST TO START THE DAY NORTH OF I-74. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING ACROSS ILLINOIS FROM NE TO SW WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE
AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR. THE HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY
HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE 850-925MB LAYER ACROSS OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE NAM AND GFS. FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS FORMATION WILL BE MORE CONCENTRATED THERE... BUT
SUNSHINE SHOULD STILL BE THE RULE FOR THE DAY IN MOST AREAS. HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID 60S NEAR INDIANA AND THE UPPER 60S WEST
OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING HEIGHTS WILL
PEAK BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH OUR HIGHER
WIND GUSTS FOR THE DAY. A FEW GUSTS MAY REACH 16-17 MPH... BUT
OVERALL WINDS SHOULD BE LESS GUSTY THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
INITIAL CONCERN FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS WITH RAIN POTENTIAL
MID WEEK. UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS
NORTHEAST TO HUDSON BAY PROGGED BY ALL MODELS TO CARVE OUT A
SIZABLE CLOUDS LOW OVER ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY...DROPPING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE MIDWEST BY THURSDAY MORNING. GFS IS A BIT FURTHER EAST WITH
THIS PROJECTION...WITH GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORING A PATH ALONG
THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA BORDER. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME SHOWERS INTO THE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COLD CORE WITH THE UPPER LOW
(500 MB TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW -20C) INTRODUCES SOME STEEP LAPSE
RATES. ALSO MENTIONED SOME ISOLATED THUNDER AS WELL. HAVE LINGERED
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POP`S ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE LOW SETTLING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...HAVE
ALSO MENTIONED SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF I-57 CLOSER TO THE LOW
TRACK.
FURTHER OUT IN TIME...UPPER FLOW SHIFTS MORE ZONAL TO START THE
WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING A TROUGH MOVING ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER...WITH THE ECMWF DEVELOPING MORE OF A BROADENING
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE GFS REMAINS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
CLOSER TO THE BORDER. STILL NOT VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RAIN
POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY...AND HAVE PULLED BACK SOME ON THE POP`S.
SATURDAY NIGHT...HAVE FOLLOWED MORE OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF A
POTENTIAL MCS SYSTEM ROLLING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
RAIN CHANCES PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE BROADENING TROUGH
APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THE GENERAL IDEA FOR TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITH WARMING CONDITIONS...
ALTHOUGH A BRIEF COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DIP CLOSER TO 0C AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE US AND THIS
KEEPS CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES. ONE LINE TAFS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTH-
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE THE RULE NEXT 24HRS.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AUTEN
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...AUTEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
102 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. A BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
100 PM UPDATE...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST, AS A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUES
TO PUSH WESTWARD OUT OF NEW BRUNSWICK. OTHERWISE, MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS TO MATCH THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. NO
OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION THIS MORNING
AND THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE
MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. WV
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED ANOTHER SPOKE OF ENERGY THAT WILL AID
THESE SHOWERS TO MOVE SSW TODAY FROM THE MARITIMES. THE LATEST RUN
OF THE 3KM HRRR AND THE NAM MATCHING UP WELL W/THE LATEST
CONDITIONS AS THE GFS. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO INCREASE THE POPS FOR
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS AND EXPAND THE AREAL COVERAGE AS
WELL. TEMPERATURES WERE DOWN IN THE MID 30S IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS W/DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 30S. PRECIP
COULD FALL AS A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN OR EVEN SOME SLEET THIS MORNING
BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM LATER THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE 40S AND 50S BY THE AFTERNOON WILL PRECIP IN THE FORM
OF RAIN. SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE LLVLS
ESPECIALLY IN THE 0-3KM LAYER W/0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS. WINDS
WERE INCREASED TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SETUP.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF INTO EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN
BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LLVL CONVERGENCE AND MID LEVEL
FORCING WEAKEN. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP BACK INTO THE
30S OVERNIGHT W/RAIN FOR THE MOST PART. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL
BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SAY ABOVE 1000 FT AS SOME SNOW COULD MIX
IN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE
LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES W/EASTERN AREAS NEAR THE MAINE-NEW
BRUNSWICK BORDER SEEING UP TO 0.25 INCHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO
LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WE COULD
STILL SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND INTO WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE
EXPECT THE UPPER LOW TO BE REPLACED BY RIDGING BOTH AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGHS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WE
COULD BE LOOKING AT HIGHS REACHING CLOSE TO 70 DEGREES IN SOME
AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR THIS MORNING W/PERIODS OF VFR. MVFR CONDITIONS
FORECAST TO RETURN FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WHILE KBGR AND KBHB ARE EXPECTED TO SEE
CONDITIONS GO TO VFR. ALL TERMINALS TO EXPERIENCE VFR INTO EARLY
TONIGHT AND THEN CONDITIONS COULD DROP BACK TO MVFR BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOWER CIGS MOVING IN FROM NEW BRUNSWICK.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 11 AM UPDATE...HAVE ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO
EXPIRE AS WINDS AND HAVES ARE AT MARGINAL LEVELS AND WILL REMAIN
SO THROUGH THE DAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WINDS/SEAS RIGHT SCA LEVELS AND WINDS TO
PICK UP AFTER 12Z(8AM). THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL STAY AS IS
FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED A FEW MORE HRS W/THAT SECOND
SURGE OF WIND MENTIONED ABOVE. SOME OF THE SOUNDING DATA
ESPECIALLY THE NAM SHOW A BRIEF SURGE OF WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY AT THE JONESPORT BUOY(44027). THIS SURGE LOOKS LIKE IT
DROPS OFF AFTER 00Z(8PM) AS WINDS DROP OFF TO 15-20 KTS. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO DOWN TO 2-4 FT.
SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS MAY THEN INCREASE THE SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND AS AN OCEAN STORM TRACKS TO OUR EAST.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
359 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SPLITTING WITH ONE SHORTWAVE DIVING SE THROUGH CENTRAL MN AND
ANOTHER MORE SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST THROUGH NRN MN AS IT
APPROACHES LAKE SUPERIOR. THE ENERGY SPLIT RESULTS IN WEAKENING
DYNAMICS OUT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS DEPICTED BY WEAKENING MID-
LVL Q-VECT CONVERGENCE. AND THIS PARTLY EXPLAINS WHY LINE OF SHRA
APPROACHING FM THE WEST IS ALSO WEAKENING AND BREAKING APART AS
NOTED ON REGIONAL RADAR LOOP.
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM MN IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. MODEL Q-VECT CONV INDICATES BEST Q-VECT CONV
SPLITTING NORTH AND SOUTH OF CWA SO WOULD EXPECT WEAKENING TREND TO
CONTINUE WITH APPROACHING LINE OF SHRA THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE DRY
FCST TO CONTINUE ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING NW ONTARIO WL THEN BEGIN DIGGING MORE
SHARPLY TO THE S TONIGHT WITH MODELS SUGGESTING A MID LEVEL LOW
BEGINNING TO CLOSE OFF JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT AN EXPANSION OF PCPN N AND E OF LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT...CLOSER TO GREATEST HEIGHT FALLS. PCPN MAY TRY TO DEVELOP S
INTO ERN UPPER MI...BUT LACK OF DEEP FORCING SUGGESTS MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE THRU THE NIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
30S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
WEDNESDAY...CLOSED LOW AND ASSOC MID-LVL TROF CONTINUES TO DESCEND
SOUTH OVER ERN UPPER MI. 12Z NAM SOUNDING FOR KERY SHOWS SHALLOW LOW-
LVL MOISTURE EXTENDING TO 7-8 KFT BUT REMAINING BELOW -10C ISOTHERM.
WOULD EXPECT ONLY SPRINKLES AT BEST FOR ERN COUNTIES (POSSIBLY AIDED
BY UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW) AS BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING/Q-VECT CONV AND
DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS EAST OF FCST AREA. N WINDS OF 10-15MPH
GUSTING TO 20MPH WILL KEEP LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE LOCATIONS COOL
WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE 40S. FARTHER INLAND HIGHS COULD
REACH INTO THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
OVERALL...LITTLE CHANGES IN THE FORECAST THOUGHTS OVER THE LAST
24HRS...WITH THE REGION SEEING LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH SUNDAY AND A TRANSITION TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THIS
TRANSITION WILL BE LED BY AN UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER WESTERN CANADA. THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA UNDER
ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES AND
SURFACE TROUGHS LEADING TO LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
BEFORE THAT UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT...THE
START OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL SEE A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE 700-500MB LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN AND SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TO THE EAST OF A LINE FROM MUNISING TO MANISTIQUE. IT DID APPEAR
THAT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH NORTHERLY FLOW UPSLOPE HELP TO PRODUCE A
FEW SHOWERS/DRIZZLE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL (NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE
CRYSTALS AND SNOW)...SO DID ADD A MENTION OF RAIN TO THAT AREA FOR
WED NIGHT INTO THURS MORNING. THE DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY MOVE
SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...ALLOWING THE UPPER
RIDGE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN CANADA. THAT WILL LEAD TO DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO THE AREA AND IN TURN DECREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO
EAST ON THURSDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO STILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH WITH THE COOL AIR COMING OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR.
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A NICE START TO THE DAY IN THE U.P. WITH SUNNY
CONDITIONS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S. THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE (SLIDING EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED IN WESTERN
CANADA WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN IN THE AFTERNOON AND
THEN THE REST OF THE CWA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. LIKE THE SHORTWAVE AND FRONT
THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...IT
WILL BE RUNNING INTO EXISTING DRY AIR AND ALSO BECOMING SHEARED OUT.
THUS...EXPECT THE SYSTEM/PRECIPITATION TO DIMINISH AS IT SHIFTS INTO
THE WESTERN U.P. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN DIMINISHING AS IT SHIFTS EAST OVER
THE REST OF THE CWA IN THE EVENING.
BEHIND THAT DISTURBANCE...ZONAL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHERN CONSUS AND EXPECT THAT TO LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT (OVER
THE LAST 6-8 RUNS) WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ON
SATURDAY AT KSAW/KIWD/KIMT AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER FOR SUNDAY.
THUS...WILL TREND THEIR FORECASTS UP TOWARDS THAT IDEA FOR BOTH OF
THOSE DAYS. WITH WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT...SHOULD SEE LAKE BREEZES
DEVELOP ON SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON A DISTURBANCE
FORECAST TO TRACK EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON SATURDAY. AT
THIS POINT...IT LOOKS TO STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT THERE
HAVE BEEN SOME INDICATIONS THAT IT MAY SLIDE NORTH AND AFFECT THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE TO THE EAST
WILL LEAD TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY.
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL COME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SHIFTS EAST
AND INTERACTS WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. WILL FOCUS ON THIS TIME FOR THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES AND TREND POPS UP BEFORE DIMINISHING THEM ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE WAVES DEPART. STILL COULD SEE SOME SHOWER LINGERING
INTO MONDAY NIGHT OR EVEN TUESDAY MORNING DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS DEPARTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
ALTHOUGH A WEAK LOW PRES TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTN AND EVENING...DRY AIR WILL PERSIST IN THE LOWER LEVELS...
ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST OVER 15 KT AT KCMX AND
KSAW ON WED AHEAD OF HIGH PRES BUILDING DOWN FROM HUDSON BAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...UNDER 15KT...AS A VERY WEAK LOW PRES TROF
PASSES THE AREA THIS EVENING. IN ITS WAKE... ANOTHER HIGH PRES WILL
BUILD OVER HUDSON BAY AND EXTEND A RIDGE S INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES
WED/THU. AS THE HIGH BEGINS RIDGING S INTO THE UPPER LAKES LATE
TONIGHT/WED...NNW WINDS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY GUST TO
AROUND 20KT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER THE W. WITH WEAK PRES
GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER LAKES THU THRU SAT...WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT...MOSTLY UNDER 15KT. A LOW PRES TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN BUT IT LOOKS WEAK AS WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BLO
20 KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
318 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 453 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A MID LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM IA TO JAMES BAY...SANDWICHED BTWN A SHORTWAVE TROF
MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND CONTINUED BROAD CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ENCOMPASSING SE CANADA AND THE NE CONUS. THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE IS SUPPORTING SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE UPPER LAKES EARLY THIS
MORNING. TO THE W...APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF IS ACCOMAPANIED BY A
BAND OF SHRA IN NW MN.
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF WILL REACH WRN UPPER MI LATE
AFTN/EVENING. WITH DEEP LAYER FORCING WEAKENING PER QVECTORS...A
LACK OF MOISTURE INFLOW...AND A VERY DRY ANTECEDANT AIR MASS PER 00Z
REGIONAL SOUNDINGS...MOST OF THE MODELS APPEAR ON TRACK SHOWING
APPROACHING PCPN DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING UPPER MI LATE THIS
AFTN/EVENING. SO...PLAN TO MAINTAIN A DRY FCST. SECOND SHORTWAVE NOW
MOVING INTO NRN MANITOBA WILL MOVE INTO NRN ONTARIO AND THEN BEGIN
DIGGING MORE SHARPLY TO THE S TONIGHT WITH MODELS SUGGESTING A MID
LEVEL LOW BEGINNING TO CLOSE OFF JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE
TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AN EXPANSION OF PCPN N AND E OF LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT...CLOSER TO GREATEST HEIGHT FALLS. PCPN MAY TRY TO
DEVELOP S INTO UPPER MI...BUT LACK OF DEEP FORCING HERE SUGGESTS DRY
WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE THRU THE NIGHT.
AS FOR TEMPS...WEAK PRES GRADIENT TODAY WILL ALLOW LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE BOARD...LEADING TO COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG
THE LAKES. IT WILL BE COOLEST IN THE ERN FCST AREA ALONG THE LAKE
SUPERIOR SHORE DUE TO ONSHORE WINDS THRU THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 40S THERE. IN THE INTERIOR...FAVORED THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
GIVEN THAT WARMER GUIDANCE HAS VERIFIED BETTER THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. EXPECT HIGHEST TEMPS IN THE INTERIOR W WHERE MAX READINGS WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. DEEP MIXING IN THE INTERIOR WILL TAP
DRIER AIR ALOFT...RESULTING IN AFTN DWPTS IN THE MID 20S...PERHAPS
LOWER. THIS WILL SEND RH DOWN TO AROUND 20PCT IN THE INTERIOR W.
FROM A FIRE WX STANDOINT...FORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
OVERALL...LITTLE CHANGES IN THE FORECAST THOUGHTS OVER THE LAST
24HRS...WITH THE REGION SEEING LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH SUNDAY AND A TRANSITION TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THIS
TRANSITION WILL BE LED BY AN UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER WESTERN CANADA. THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA UNDER
ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES AND
SURFACE TROUGHS LEADING TO LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
BEFORE THAT UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT...THE
START OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL SEE A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE 700-500MB LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN AND SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TO THE EAST OF A LINE FROM MUNISING TO MANISTIQUE. IT DID APPEAR
THAT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH NORTHERLY FLOW UPSLOPE HELP TO PRODUCE A
FEW SHOWERS/DRIZZLE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL (NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE
CRYSTALS AND SNOW)...SO DID ADD A MENTION OF RAIN TO THAT AREA FOR
WED NIGHT INTO THURS MORNING. THE DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY MOVE
SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...ALLOWING THE UPPER
RIDGE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN CANADA. THAT WILL LEAD TO DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO THE AREA AND IN TURN DECREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO
EAST ON THURSDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO STILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH WITH THE COOL AIR COMING OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR.
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A NICE START TO THE DAY IN THE U.P. WITH SUNNY
CONDITIONS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S. THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE (SLIDING EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED IN WESTERN
CANADA WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN IN THE AFTERNOON AND
THEN THE REST OF THE CWA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. LIKE THE SHORTWAVE AND FRONT
THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...IT
WILL BE RUNNING INTO EXISTING DRY AIR AND ALSO BECOMING SHEARED OUT.
THUS...EXPECT THE SYSTEM/PRECIPITATION TO DIMINISH AS IT SHIFTS INTO
THE WESTERN U.P. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN DIMINISHING AS IT SHIFTS EAST OVER
THE REST OF THE CWA IN THE EVENING.
BEHIND THAT DISTURBANCE...ZONAL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHERN CONSUS AND EXPECT THAT TO LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT (OVER
THE LAST 6-8 RUNS) WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ON
SATURDAY AT KSAW/KIWD/KIMT AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER FOR SUNDAY.
THUS...WILL TREND THEIR FORECASTS UP TOWARDS THAT IDEA FOR BOTH OF
THOSE DAYS. WITH WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT...SHOULD SEE LAKE BREEZES
DEVELOP ON SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON A DISTURBANCE
FORECAST TO TRACK EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON SATURDAY. AT
THIS POINT...IT LOOKS TO STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT THERE
HAVE BEEN SOME INDICATIONS THAT IT MAY SLIDE NORTH AND AFFECT THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE TO THE EAST
WILL LEAD TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY.
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL COME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SHIFTS EAST
AND INTERACTS WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. WILL FOCUS ON THIS TIME FOR THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES AND TREND POPS UP BEFORE DIMINISHING THEM ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE WAVES DEPART. STILL COULD SEE SOME SHOWER LINGERING
INTO MONDAY NIGHT OR EVEN TUESDAY MORNING DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS DEPARTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
ALTHOUGH A WEAK LOW PRES TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTN AND EVENING...DRY AIR WILL PERSIST IN THE LOWER LEVELS...
ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST OVER 15 KT AT KCMX AND
KSAW ON WED AHEAD OF HIGH PRES BUILDING DOWN FROM HUDSON BAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 453 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE LIGHT...UNDER 15KT...THRU THIS
EVENING AS SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA GIVES WAY TO A VERY WEAK LOW
PRES TROF THAT WILL PASS LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. IN ITS WAKE...
ANOTHER HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER HUDSON BAY AND EXTEND A RIDGE S
INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WED/THU. AS THE HIGH BEGINS RIDGING S INTO
THE UPPER LAKES LATE TONIGHT/WED...NNW WINDS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL LIKELY GUST TO AROUND 20KT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER THE W.
WITH WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER LAKES THU THRU SAT...WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT...MOSTLY UNDER 15KT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
156 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 453 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A MID LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM IA TO JAMES BAY...SANDWICHED BTWN A SHORTWAVE TROF
MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND CONTINUED BROAD CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ENCOMPASSING SE CANADA AND THE NE CONUS. THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE IS SUPPORTING SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE UPPER LAKES EARLY THIS
MORNING. TO THE W...APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF IS ACCOMAPANIED BY A
BAND OF SHRA IN NW MN.
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF WILL REACH WRN UPPER MI LATE
AFTN/EVENING. WITH DEEP LAYER FORCING WEAKENING PER QVECTORS...A
LACK OF MOISTURE INFLOW...AND A VERY DRY ANTECEDANT AIR MASS PER 00Z
REGIONAL SOUNDINGS...MOST OF THE MODELS APPEAR ON TRACK SHOWING
APPROACHING PCPN DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING UPPER MI LATE THIS
AFTN/EVENING. SO...PLAN TO MAINTAIN A DRY FCST. SECOND SHORTWAVE NOW
MOVING INTO NRN MANITOBA WILL MOVE INTO NRN ONTARIO AND THEN BEGIN
DIGGING MORE SHARPLY TO THE S TONIGHT WITH MODELS SUGGESTING A MID
LEVEL LOW BEGINNING TO CLOSE OFF JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE
TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AN EXPANSION OF PCPN N AND E OF LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT...CLOSER TO GREATEST HEIGHT FALLS. PCPN MAY TRY TO
DEVELOP S INTO UPPER MI...BUT LACK OF DEEP FORCING HERE SUGGESTS DRY
WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE THRU THE NIGHT.
AS FOR TEMPS...WEAK PRES GRADIENT TODAY WILL ALLOW LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE BOARD...LEADING TO COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG
THE LAKES. IT WILL BE COOLEST IN THE ERN FCST AREA ALONG THE LAKE
SUPERIOR SHORE DUE TO ONSHORE WINDS THRU THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 40S THERE. IN THE INTERIOR...FAVORED THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
GIVEN THAT WARMER GUIDANCE HAS VERIFIED BETTER THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. EXPECT HIGHEST TEMPS IN THE INTERIOR W WHERE MAX READINGS WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. DEEP MIXING IN THE INTERIOR WILL TAP
DRIER AIR ALOFT...RESULTING IN AFTN DWPTS IN THE MID 20S...PERHAPS
LOWER. THIS WILL SEND RH DOWN TO AROUND 20PCT IN THE INTERIOR W.
FROM A FIRE WX STANDOINT...FORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN HARD TO COME BY IN THE LONG TERM AS THE
AREA WILL BE DOMINATED BY A SFC RIDGE AT LEAST THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK.
AN UPPER WAVE WILL TRANSIT THE CENTRAL OR ERN CWA WED INTO WED
NIGHT...BUT WILL BE LACKING MOISTURE SUFFICIENT FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN E AND POSSIBLY SOME SPRINKLES OVER
THE NCENTRAL (AIDED BY UPSLOPE FORCING) WED INTO WED NIGHT. THE NAM
SHOWS THE MOST QPF BUT IT IS ALSO STRONGEST WITH THE WAVE AND HAS
BEEN SUBSTANTIALLY OVERDOING LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE LATELY. N WINDS
OF 10-15MPH GUSTING TO 20MPH WILL KEEP LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE
LOCATIONS COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE 40S. INLAND HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 50S.
SFC RIDGING TAKES MOVES SQUARELY BACK OVER THE CWA ON THU BEFORE
MOVING OUT ON FRI EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THU WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPS TO WED AS N-NE FLOW CONTINUES...BUT SW-W
FLOW AND AN OVERALL MUCH WARMER AIRMASS ON FRI WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 50S E AND THE 60S W. THANKFULLY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
ON FRI...WHICH WILL HELP OFFSET FIRE RISK AS RH VALUES DROP INTO THE
20-30 PERCENT RANGE. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE FAR
W LATE FRI AS DYING SHORTWAVE MOVES TOWARD THE CWA WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE CWA SAT THROUGH
MON...BUT PRECIP POTENTIAL ON SAT LOOKS LOW. FOR SUN AND
MON...BETTER MOISTURE ALONG WITH STRONGER SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND
BETTER WAA FORCING WILL MAKE FOR BETTER PRECIP CHANCES. EXACT
AMOUNTS/TIMING IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS HARD TO PIN
DOWN AT THAT TIME RANGE. DOES LOOK LIKE TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE 70S
IN SOME SPOTS SAT INTO MON...BUT THAT IS ALSO DEPENDENT ON SHORTWAVE
TRACK/PRECIP/CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
ALTHOUGH A WEAK LOW PRES TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTN AND EVENING...DRY AIR WILL PERSIST IN THE LOWER LEVELS...
ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST OVER 15 KT AT KCMX AND
KSAW ON WED AHEAD OF HIGH PRES BUILDING DOWN FROM HUDSON BAY.
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 453 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE LIGHT...UNDER 15KT...THRU THIS
EVENING AS SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA GIVES WAY TO A VERY WEAK LOW
PRES TROF THAT WILL PASS LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. IN ITS WAKE...
ANOTHER HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER HUDSON BAY AND EXTEND A RIDGE S
INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WED/THU. AS THE HIGH BEGINS RIDGING S INTO
THE UPPER LAKES LATE TONIGHT/WED...NNW WINDS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL LIKELY GUST TO AROUND 20KT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER THE W.
WITH WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER LAKES THU THRU SAT...WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT...MOSTLY UNDER 15KT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
330 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
AT 330 PM...A VARIETY OF WEATHER WAS OCCURRING ACROSS THE CWA.
SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT
THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER TODAY. THE 4KM NMM WRF...AS WELL AS
THE 18Z NAM AND THE HRRR ALL INDICATED THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE LINGERING
BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THE VORT MAX
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST AS THE EVENING WEARS ON...BRINGING AN END TO THE THREAT
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. TEMPS OVERNIGHT
WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE 30S WITH A FEW 20S POSSIBLE IN LOW
LYING LOCATIONS. OVERALL...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT.
ON WEDNESDAY...A CLOSED LOW WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE LAKE
SUPERIOR REGION BY EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE A BACK DOOR SURFACE
COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTHEAST. HIGHS WILL
ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE 60S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
MILD TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE. THERE WILL BE A WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR
RAIN ON FRIDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS SHIFTS
TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW LEADING TO WEAK FAST-MOVING IMPULSES MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION.
THURSDAY...DRY AND MILD UNDER A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. LIGHT WINDS
WILL PREVENT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM DEVELOPING...BUT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY FALL TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON. MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS MID 60S TO NEAR 70S INLAND...WITH A
LAKE BREEZE LIMITING TEMPS TO THE 50S BY LAKE SUPERIOR...PERHAPS AS
COLD AS THE MID 40S ALONG THE NORTH SHORE FROM SILVER BAY NORTH.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN
FRIDAY...MOVING ACROSS FROM WEST TO EAST SIMILAR TO TODAY /TUES/
BUT WITH MORE INTENSE RAINFALL. TOTAL PRECIP WILL AMOUNT TO AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH. ECMWF/GEM A BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS...BUT IN
GENERALLY THINK THE RAIN WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA IN THE
MORNING INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN IN THE AFTERNOON. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT NEAR FREEZING WHERE SKIES REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT IN THE
ARROWHEAD REGION...ELSEWHERE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S. HIGHS
COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 50S BY THE LAKE TO MID
60S ELSEWHERE.
SAT/SUN/MON/TUES...BEHIND THIS FRONT ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS AT MID/UPPER LEVELS RESULTING A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR PRECIP MOST DAYS...BUT NO DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE A TOTAL
WASHOUT. AT THIS POINT SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL...BUT WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN IT IS
DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN TIMING OF ANY INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM. TEMPS WARM
DUE TO SOME LOW LEVEL RIDGING THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...IN THE 60S BY LAKE
SUPERIOR. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS...IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
MVFR CEILINGS AT BRD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AREA OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT
RAIN HAS WEAKENED AS IT MOVED EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
THIS MORNING PER VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR. DRY AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT HAS ERODED MUCH OF THE LOWER STRATUS DECK...WITH THE CHANCE
FOR SOME STRATUS TO REACH BRD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON CAUSING A FEW
HOURS OF MVFR CEILINGS.
A SECOND ROUND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON SO INCLUDED A MENTION OF VCSH AT HYR...BUT
AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP EAST OF HYR AROUND
THE LATE AFTERNOON...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...BECOMING
NEAR-CALM OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 37 64 35 55 / 10 10 0 0
INL 32 65 35 68 / 10 10 0 0
BRD 34 70 39 68 / 0 0 0 0
HYR 38 65 34 61 / 20 0 0 0
ASX 36 62 33 55 / 0 10 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
308 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA BY MID
AFTERNOON...AND EXTENDED FROM NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AS OF THIS WRITING...AND IS WORKING INTO WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. WINDS HAVE BECOME GENERALLY NORTH OR NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT AND WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
AND FLUCTUATE FOLLOWING A DIURNAL TREND FROM 5-15 MPH. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK EASTWARD AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.
OTHERWISE...A QUIET PERIOD AHEAD AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE DAKOTAS. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR ALEXANDRIA AND WORKING THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES AROUND
9PM...AND THROUGH EAU CLAIRE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BEHIND THE
CLEARING...DRIER AIR WILL SURGE IN WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE
LOW 30S...SO OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS WESTERN MN STILL LOOK TO FALL
INTO THE MID 30S...BUT A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS MAY APPROACH THE
FREEZING MARK IF WINDS GO CALM OVERNIGHT. FOR TOMORROW...CLEAR
SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING QUICKLY IN THE MORNING AND HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 70S IN WESTERN MINNESOTA...TO UPPER 60S IN
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
LONG TERM TRENDS WILL DEPEND UPON ON THE ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER
JET STREAM AND ASSOCIATED EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES THRU NEXT WEEK.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY WILL BE CONTROLLED BY THE DEPARTING UPPER
LOW THAT WILL BE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INITIALLY...THEN DIVING
S/SE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE SE CONUS BY FRIDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON STATE WILL MOVE
EASTWARD...WHICH WILL INITIALLY SLOW AND WEAKEN BEFORE THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW DEPARTS TO THE S/SE. EVENTUALLY THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY FRIDAY/FRIDAY
AFTN. SFC CONVERGENCE IS WEAK/OR WEAKENS AS THE COLD FRONT/SHORT
WAVE ENCOUNTERS THE CONFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT. ONCE A STRONGER JET
STREAK MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY...THE UPPER FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE W/NW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE
REMAINS ENOUGH CONTINUITY WITH A NARROW BAND OF SHRA TO CONTINUE
CHC POPS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THRU THE
UPPER MIDWEST.
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS THE MEAN UPPER FLOW REMAINS W/WNW AND
STRENGTHENS SOME...ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THIS TIME...MOISTURE IS DEEPER AND ALLOWS FOR A MORE CONCENTRATED
AREA OF SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTN AS
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS MAXIMIZE. SHEAR VALUES /0-6KM/ REMAINED
UNFAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...BUT IT NEEDS TO BE WATCHED
BASED ON SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE EC/GFS ON THE FRONT POSITION AND
OVERALL UPPER FLOW.
THE 85H OF THE 5-DAY MEAN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD /MAY 4-MAY 12/
HAS TRENDED TOWARD A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN AS AN 85H RIDGE BEGINS
TO HOLD IN THE SE CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. LEADING TOWARD DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTING
NORTHWARD AND POSSIBLY A BETTER CHC OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
THE BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL MN WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS IT ENTERS WEST CENTRAL WI THIS AFTERNOON.
ASSOCIATED CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW-END VFR
CATEGORY. THE MAIN SITE TO EXPERIENCE NOTABLE REDUCTIONS TO IFR
WILL BE KAXN...UNTIL MID AFTERNOON WHEN RUC 0.5KM AGL
CONDENSATIONAL PRESSURE DEFICITS INDICATE IMPROVEMENT. BY
00Z...ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR WITH ONLY FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 10KFT.
WINDS WILL BE NNW AROUND 10-12KTS TODAY...THEN BECOME LIGHT NNE
THIS EVE INTO WEDNESDAY.
KMSP...
MAIN WINDOW FOR SHOWERS IS BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z...WITH A LIGHTNING
STRIKE OR TWO POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FIELD DURING THAT
TIME AS WELL. CIGS AROUND 5KFT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING THIS
EVE.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED NIGHT...VFR. WINDS ENE 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS E 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WINDS S 10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...LS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1231 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
A COLD FRONT BISECTS THE STATE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST EARLY
THIS MORNING. A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN EXISTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FROM NORTH CENTRAL MN THROUGH EAST CENTRAL SD ASSOCIATED WITH A
BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. MULTIPLE WRF FORECASTS INDICATE
THE BAND OF LIGHT RAIN WEAKENING...WITH A FEW MEMBERS EVEN SHOWING
DISSIPATION THIS MORNING...AS IT HEADS INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
AREAS OF MN. THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE FORECAST WEAKENING OF THE
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS/THERMAL GRADIENT. HOWEVER...THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING TIME PERIODS ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT. EVEN
THOUGH THERE IS SOME WEAKENING FORECAST THIS MORNING...EASTERN MN
AND WESTERN WI WILL BE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 250MB JET
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH BEING UNDER THE SHORT WAVE/COLD TROUGH
AT 500 MB. NSHARP PROFILES FROM THE NAM AND GFS SHOW RATHER STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OCCURRING. THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK FORCING
AND LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD YIELD ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
TWIN CITIES...WITH THE ACTIVITY WORKING INTO WEST CENTRAL WI AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MN BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN DISSIPATING
EARLY THIS EVENING. HENCE...FOLLOWED THE IDEA OF THE NSSL WRF AND
NCAR ENSEMBLE WRF. THE LATTER SHOWS THAT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
SPREAD IN THE SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CAN BE
SEEN QUITE WELL IN THE NCAR ENSEMBLE SOUNDING FOR KMSP. IF ONE
WERE TO REMOVE A FEW OF THE DRIER PROFILES...THE SOUNDING WOULD
HAVE A BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PROFILE. THEREFORE...USED SOME
20/30 POPS FOR TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE MN CWA AND ADJOINING AREAS
OF WESTERN WI. A CONCERN TODAY IS THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST
DUE TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ALONG WITH
SOME SHOWERS. WENT A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...BUT THIS MAY STILL BE TOO WARM AND MAY NEED TO BE
TWEAKED FURTHER THIS MORNING. CLEARING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THE LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST LOOKED TOO WARM OVER OUR WESTERN CWA DUE TO DEW POINTS
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. USED A BLEND OF
BCCONSRAW AND GEMNHBC WHICH BROUGHT LOWS DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 30S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MN.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
THE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE A DECIDEDLY MORE SUMMER-LIKE UPPER AIR
PATTERN...ONCE THE DEEP AND PERSISTENT ERN NOAM UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO
THE ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND...SETTING UP A WAVY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
NRN CONUS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE LONG TERM WILL START WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
PLAINS AS AN UPPER LOW DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON
THE WRN EDGE OF THE ERN NOAM UPPER LOW. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS WRN WI ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH ANY
INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHOWERS BENEATH THE UPPER COLD POOL LOOK TO STAY
OVER ERN WI. THIS FEATURE MOVES TOWARD INDIANA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...TAKING THE CLOUD COVER WITH IT. AT THE SFC...DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DEEP
MIXING IS EXPECTED BOTH DAYS...AND AS WE HAVE SEEN THROUGHOUT THIS
SPRING...THIS CALLS FOR LOWERING DEWPOINTS BELOW GUIDANCE AND
FAVORING BIAS CORRECTED FORECASTS FOR HIGHS...WHICH WAS DONE BOTH
DAYS.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH MAINLY MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES
NOTED. UNLIKE TODAYS FRONT...THIS FRONT WILL MAINTAIN BETTER
DEFINITION COMING INTO MN...WITH RAINFALL CHANCES LOOKING MORE
LIKELY WITH THIS FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...LIKE
TODAYS FRONT...IT WILL BE WASHING OUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
SHORTWAVE BECOMES SHEARED OUT...MEANING RAINFALL CHANCES ARE BETTER
TO THE WEST AS OPPOSED TO THE EAST. DID RAISE POPS INTO THE HIGH
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR WRN MN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS MODEL AGREEMENT IS
LOOKING BETTER ON RAIN MOVING INTO THE WEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. DID
REMOVE THUNDER WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW NO INSTABILITY PRESENT WITH THE WAVE AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP...WE WILL SEE A PLUME
OF RATHER MILD H85 AIR MOVE INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF
FRIDAYS SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF CONTINUING TO SHOW H85 TEMPS IN
EXCESS OF +12C. DID ADD SOME BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GRIDS INTO THE
INITIAL CENTRAL REGION BLEND FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY TO GET MORE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE GRIDS FOR SATURDAY...WHICH LOOKS TO OFFER
SOME SUNNY SKIES BEFORE THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT. AS
FOR THAT WARM FRONT...THOUGH SPREAD IS TYPICAL OF WHAT YOU WOULD
EXPECT THIS FAR OUT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE
GFS/GEM/ECMWF ALL AGREE ON THE GENERAL IDEA OF A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT OR SFC
LOW PASSAGE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE BRINGING
UP SOME MODIFIED TROPICAL AIR...WITH DEWPS LIKELY INTO THE
60S...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY FOR THE
SYSTEM COMING THROUGH SUNDAY. THOUGH KINEMATIC FIELDS ARE MARGINAL
FOR ANY SORT OF SEVER POTENTIAL...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY LOOKS TO
EXIST TO GIVE US A GOOD SHOT AT SOME THUNDERSTORMS. AS A
RESULT...HAVE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CHANCE POPS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE THUNDER WORDING MORE THAN WARRANTED IN THE FORECAST
THIS TIME AROUND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
THE BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL MN WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS IT ENTERS WEST CENTRAL WI THIS AFTERNOON.
ASSOCIATED CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW-END VFR
CATEGORY. THE MAIN SITE TO EXPERIENCE NOTABLE REDUCTIONS TO IFR
WILL BE KAXN...UNTIL MID AFTERNOON WHEN RUC 0.5KM AGL
CONDENSATIONAL PRESSURE DEFICITS INDICATE IMPROVEMENT. BY
00Z...ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR WITH ONLY FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 10KFT.
WINDS WILL BE NNW AROUND 10-12KTS TODAY...THEN BECOME LIGHT NNE
THIS EVE INTO WEDNESDAY.
KMSP...
MAIN WINDOW FOR SHOWERS IS BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z...WITH A LIGHTNING
STRIKE OR TWO POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FIELD DURING THAT
TIME AS WELL. CIGS AROUND 5KFT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING THIS
EVE.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED NIGHT...VFR. WINDS ENE 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS E 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WINDS S 10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...LS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1147 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS BASICALLY ON TRACK. HOWEVER WARMING
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA HAS BEEN SLOW TO OCCUR...AND COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND WIND SHIFT COMBINED WITH INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD
HIGHS THERE IN THE 60S RATHER THAN LOWER 70S. SO THAT WAS THE
ONLY TWEAK TO THE FORECAST...WITH THE REST OF THE CWA SEEING 70S
LATER TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
LATEST MSAS THIS MORNING WAS SHOWING A RELATIVELY WEAK THERMAL BNDRY
EXTENDING FROM N-CNTRL ND INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE PUSHING TO THE SE.
HIRES HRRR PUTS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BNDRY MOVING INTO THE NRN
CWA IN A MATTER OF HOURS THE THRU THE REST OF THE CWA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. GIVEN WEAK CAA DECENT MIXING...SHOULD BE ABLE TO
REACH LOW 70S THIS AFTN...AND FOR WEDNESDAY MET/MAV ARE SIMILAR WITH
LOW 70S. ON THURSDAY...WITH INCREASING 1000-500MB THKNS BUILDING
IN...PREFER WARMER MAV VALUES WITH MID/UPPER 70S. LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...SMALL POPS IN PLACE OVER THE NRN CWA WHEN ANOTHER WEAK SFC
BNDRY MOVES IN.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
GFS/ECM SHOWING POSSIBLE PCPN THRU THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED PDS.
POST-FRONTAL PCPN ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DISSIPATES ON FRIDAY AS SFC
BNDRY PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH. LLVL MOISTURE RETURN/STOUT 305K UPGLIDE
DRIVING PCPN CHANCES THEN SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT...INCREASING MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO CNTRL PLAINS. BNDRY MOVES SOUTH OF THE CWA ON
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST
WINDS AVERAGING 10 TO 20KT WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 10KT AFTER
00Z. WILL SEE VFR CIGS BETWEEN FL040 AND FL060 MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTH FOR A TIME FROM NEAR 20Z THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. SOME BRIEF MVFR
CIGS COULD AFFECT KOFK AS WELL.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DERGAN
SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...DERGAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1232 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM TUESDAY...HOURLY TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE SLOW TO
RISE GIVEN THIS MORNING`S CIRRUS CLOUD COVER BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY NOW THAT NEAR-FULL
SUNSHINE IS DEVELOPING. DISCUSSION FROM 945 AM FOLLOWS --> VERY FEW
CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. AN EXPANSIVE FAN OF
CIRRUS CLOUDS EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA...GEORGIA AND THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS ARE THE RESULT OF BLOWOFF FROM AN MCS MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THESE TRANSLUCENT TO NEARLY OPAQUE CLOUDS
ARE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT OVER 100 KNOTS AND SHOULD LARGELY BE
OFFSHORE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
TRANSITORY HOWEVER AS A NEW BATCH OF CLOUDS BETWEEN 15000-25000 FEET
WILL ARRIVE DURING THE EVENING AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN
THE GULF. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO OUR HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS TODAY...STILL ANTICIPATED TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 FOR MOST AREAS. THAT`S NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL! DISCUSSION
FROM 600 AM FOLLOWS...
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WERE WARMING AND THINNING THIS
MORNING.
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA WILL SKIRT BY TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS IT MOVES
OFFSHORE TODAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THIS MORNING WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND
CENTRAL GULF COASTAL STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY STREAKING OUT AHEAD OF THE WAVE AS ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE INCREASES. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE INTO THIS EVE WILL
SLOWLY BE DISLODGED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO WHICH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE
TONIGHT AS IT TURNS NORTHEAST. COOL NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS THIS MORNING WILL VEER TO A MORE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BEGIN TO
CLIMB FROM LESS THAN A HALF INCH TODAY TO AROUND 1 INCH LATE
TONIGHT.
CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS WILL BRING CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS TO THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS EARLY ON...BUT THESE CLOUDS SHOULD TEND TO THIN
WITH THE BULK OF THE THICK CLOUD COVER GETTING SUPPRESSED TO OUR S
LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THICK CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED TO SURGE BACK TO THE N THIS EVE WITH CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT OVERNIGHT.
DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND THIS
EVE. HOWEVER...AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS...LASTLY IN THE LOW LEVELS...
EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO BEGIN TO BREAK OUT FROM SW TO NE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE HIGHEST RISK FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL BEFORE DAYBREAK
WED WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL
RAMP POPS UP TO LIKELY ALONG AND SW OF A LINE FROM GEORGETOWN TO KINGSTREE
TO TIMMONSVILLE WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT IN POPS TO THE NE OF THIS
LINE...FALLING BELOW THRESHOLD AS YOU MOVE UP ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR
AREA. DUE TO THE DRYNESS OF THE COLUMN INITIALLY...DO NOT EXPECT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL EXCEED A TENTH OF AN INCH EVEN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MOST ZONES PRIOR TO 12Z WED.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S...WELL BELOW
NORMAL. NOT AS CHILLY AS RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S WITH UPPER 50S AT THE BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...A WET AND COOL MID WEEK PERIOD COMING UP.
GULF COAST LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AFTER REACHING THE NORTHEAST
COAST OF FLORIDA WED AFTN. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE EARLY WED WITH LIGHT NE FLOW..BUT A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE EAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL ACT TO SHARPEN
A SW FLOW AHEAD OF IT INTO THE CAROLINAS WHILE THE SFC LOW MOVES
NE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT THE GRADIENT TO
TIGHTEN WITH ENHANCED N-NE COOL SFC FLOW WHILE WINDS ALOFT
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENHANCING WEDGE
INLAND AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED
INTO WED EVE. EXPECT RAIN TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA FROM SW TO NE
WITH GREATEST QPF WED AFTN.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH WED NIGHT AS
SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE UP JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SHORTWAVE PUSHING THE LOW ON A FARTHER
EASTWARD TRACK UP THE SOUTHEAST WATERS ON WED AND KEEP IT WEAKER
OVERALL REMAINING SLOWER WITH DEEP CLOSED LOW MOVING DOWN FROM THE
UPPER MID WEST ON THURS. BUT STILL COUNTING ON A GOOD DEAL OF PCP
OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS WED AFTN WITH ENHANCEMENT FROM DECENT
DYNAMICS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. LIFT WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT
WED AS SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY AND A DEEPER NW FLOW SETS UP ON BACK
END OF LOW. EXPECT DRYING THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE
COLUMN WITH WINDS BACKING AROUND TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION.
SKIES MAY BRIGHTEN WITH SOME DRYING THROUGH THE MID LEVELS ON
THURS BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF PCP WILL COME AS POTENT MID TO UPPER
LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATER ON THURS.
EXPECT TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL ON WED...AND MAY NOT MAKE IT PAST
60 IN SPOTS IN CLOUDS AND RAIN. THURS WILL RETURN TOWARD 70S IN
PLACES AS CLOUDS THIN OUT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...POTENT LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
ON FRI WITH A DEEP N-NW FLOW ON THE BACK END BRINGING IN PLENTY OF
DRY AIR. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS OR PCP EARLY FRI WILL DIMINISH AS
COLUMN DRIES OUT. PCP WATER VALUES WILL DROP TO LESS THAN A HALF
INCH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND EXITING LOW. HEIGHTS AS LOW
AS 545 FRI MORNING WILL BEGIN TO RISE WITH AIR MASS MODIFYING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT A GENERAL WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS
REACHING BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE AS RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
WILL BRING TEMPS UP AROUND 80 BY SUN AND MON.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOOK FOR A BROKEN CIRRUS CEILING THE AFTERNOON...DEBRIS
FROM A LARGE COMPLEX SOUTH OF THE REGION. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW MAY
BE REPLACE WITH A SOUTHEAST RESULTANT ALONG THE COAST. LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT WITH NO FOG EXPECTED. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. BY DAYBREAK...LOOK FOR A MID CLOUD
CEILING WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ADVECTING NORTHWARD FROM A
WARM FRONT. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE REGION...THE EASTERN HALF BEING THE MOST
FAVORABLE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A CONTINUING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. VFR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES NEEDED ON THIS EARLY AFTERNOON
UPDATE. DISCUSSION FROM 945 AM --> FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE
THIS MORNING AS LAST NIGHT`S NORTHERLY SURGE BEGINS TO DIE DOWN. N-
NE BREEZES SHOULD SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WIND
DIRECTIONS NEARSHORE TURNING ONSHORE IN A WEAK SEABREEZE CIRCULATION
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST HIGH-RES MODELING VIA
THE HRRR AND RUC MODELS SHOWS THE SEABREEZE WILL BE BEST-DEVELOPED
SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR. CURRENT SEAS RANGE FROM 2-3 FT NEARSHORE TO
AROUND 4 FT OUT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY. SPECTRAL WAVE DATA
INDICATES A MIX OF PERIODS...A SMALL 8 SECOND SWELL WITH MORE
SUBSTANTIAL 4-5 SECOND CHOP. DISCUSSION FROM 600 AM FOLLOWS...
THE LAST OF THE NORTHERLY SURGES WAS QUICKLY WANING THIS MORNING AND
WE HAVE REMOVED THE SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL STILL BE HIGHEST THIS MORNING...SUSTAINED UP TO
10 TO 20 KT AND SEAS UP TO 3 TO 4 FT. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE WIND DIRECTION VEERS FROM N TO NE. LIGHT
WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH AN E WIND UP TO 10 TO 15 KT DEVELOPING BY MORNING.
SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE WILL BEGIN TO TREND HIGHER
WED MORNING.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL
CREATE DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN IN THE CAROLINAS AND
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH ON SHORE WINDS
AROUND 10 KT EARLY WED INCREASING UP TO 15 TO 20 KT. THIS WILL
PUSH SEAS UP FROM 2 TO 4 FT UP TO 3 TO 5 FT AND SHOULD SEE BRIEF
PERIOD LATE WED UP TO 6 TO 7 FT IN STRONGER E-NE WINDS AS GRADIENT
BECOMES PINCHED...POSSIBLY PRODUCING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS.
AS LOW MOVES UP THE COAST WINDS WILL BACK BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY
AND THEN NW HEADING THROUGH THURS AND WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 15
KT. THE WEAKENING OFF SHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO DROP TO 2 TO
4 FT MOST WATERS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE LOCAL WATERS FRI INTO SATURDAY AS DEEP
NW FLOW DEVELOPS ON BACK END. NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT FRI MORNING
WILL INCREASE IN CAA THROUGH LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. SEAS WILL
INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD BUT OFF SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP GREATEST
SEAS UP TO 5 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS GRADIENT RELAXES AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RJD/TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1248 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
SKIES HAVE STARTED TO CLEAR OFF ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE
CLOUDINESS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TEMPS HAVE BEEN A BIT SLOW TO RECOVER
EVEN AS SKIES BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY...SO LOWERED HIGHS A DEGREE OR
TWO AND THINK MOST SPOTS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 60S.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY WAS STILL SOCKED IN WITH FOG SO
EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THERE ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. AS
SOON AS THAT WENT OUT THE OBS AT GFK STARTED GOING UP IN
VISIBILITY. FIGURES. THE WEB CAMS AT DRAYTON AND PEMBINA ARE STILL
SHOWING A LOT OF FOG...ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SLOW IMPROVEMENT
OVER THE PAST HOUR. WILL HANG ONTO THE ADVISORY FOR ANOTHER HALF
HOUR OR SO AND THEN CANCEL THE WHOLE THING AT ONCE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
NOW THAT IT IS DAYLIGHT THE WEB CAMS ARE MORE HELP. THEY INDICATE
WIDESPREAD VERY LOW VSBY DUE TO DENSE FOG WITHIN THE
VALLEY...WITH MORE PATCHY DENSE FOG TO THE WEST WITHIN THE DEVILS
LAKE BASIN. AT ANY RATE...MOST AREAS ARE 1/4SM AND WILL CONTINUE
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
THE HENDRUM-ADA WEBCAM IN SHOWING DENSE FOG...AND WILL EXTEND THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO THIS AREA.
THERE IS A ALSO DENSE FOG IN A SMALL AREA AROUND VALLEY CITY...BUT
THIS AREA IS DETACHED FROM THE MAIN FOG AREA AND REMAINS
ISOLATED.
HRRR/RAP INDICATES THAT THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 9AM-10AM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 507 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
THE ZERO TO 1/4SM VSBY OBSERVATIONS ARE BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.
LATEST RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
ARE BECOMING CALM ACROSS THIS AREA (LOOKING AT 950MB-925MB
WINDS)...WHICH IS LIKELY ALLOWING THE FOG TO BECOME MORE MATURE
(DEVELOP MORE THAN JUST 5 FEET ABOVE THE SFC). WEB CAMS ARE
BEGINNING TO INDICATE VSBY REDUCTIONS AS WELL. SINCE THE FOG SEEMS
MORE WIDESPREAD NOW AND THICKER...ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
THIS AREA. WILL NEED TO WATCH AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...BUT
THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TIME FOR FOG FORMATION ANYMORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE THE DENSE FOG THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA (LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
THE SHOWERS). AUTOMATED SENSORS INDICATING 0SM-1/4SM VSBY...BUT
DOT WEB CAMS INDICATE DECENT VISIBILITY. A FEW OB SITES NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER NOW FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 1/4SM AND AOA 3SM.
A SHERIFF REPORT INDICATES THE FOG IS VERY SHALLOW (4-5 FEET ABOVE
THE GROUND). CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE FOG BECOMES VERY DENSE
RIGHT AFTER THE RAIN ENDS...BUT THIS DENSE FOG BECOMES PATCHY
AFTER AN HOUR OR TWO. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS...THIS MAKES SOME
SENSE WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS ABOVE THE SFC COMBINED WITH WINDS
NEAR OR ABOVE 10 KNOTS JUST ABOVE THE SFC. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR WEB CAMS AND OBSERVATIONS...BUT FOR NOW THINKING A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY IS NOT NEEDED (WILL ISSUE NOWCASTS).
THE BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS SHOWERS FROM FARGO TO BAUDETTE WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST/SOUTHEAST...EXITING THE REGION SHORTLY
AFTER 12Z.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. CLEAR
SKY AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE MID-UPPER 60S TODAY...AND INTO THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY. THE
MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE MIN TEMPS TONIGHT CONSIDERING THE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. WENT NEAR MODEL DEW POINT VALUES
FOR MIN TEMPS WHICH IS 5F-10F BELOW MOST GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE
EASTWARD WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THUR NIGHT. DRY
WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY...WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ANTICIPATE A BAND OF SHOWERS
THUR NIGHT.
FRIDAY-MONDAY...A PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS
EXPECTED...WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET GENERALLY
MEANDERING NEAR THE US/CANADA BORDER. THE FLOW WILL BE RATHER
ZONAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
CONTINUING INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AND SATURDAY LOOKING TO
BE THE WARMEST DAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS DO ALL INDICATE A FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE SAT OR SUN BRINGING MODESTLY COOLER TEMPS TO THE
REGION TO START NEXT WEEK. AS FAR AS PRECIP
GOES...TIMING/PLACEMENT ISSUES BETWEEN THE MODELS LEAD TO LOW
CONFIDENCE...WITH THE GEM/ECMWF TAKING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS S CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND...AND THE GFS DIGGING A WAVE
TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THESE DIFFERENCES...IN ADDITION
TO PLACEMENT OF OTHER EMBEDDED WAVES...WOULD IMPACT BOTH THE
POSITION OF SFC FEATURES AND THE LOCATION OF BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/FORCING. RIGHT NOW HAVE KEPT SOME LOW END POPS MAINLY
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND A
BUILDING H5 RIDGE ALOFT... EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS OVER MINNESOTA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...SO LIGHT SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN OVER THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE FORENOON. DRYING
AND WARMING AIRMASS OVERALL SO MORNING FOG IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...GUST