Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/27/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
915 AM MST SAT APR 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GUSTY AFTERNOON
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP...STRONGEST IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO INCREASE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT MAINLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. LINGERING SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY OVER EASTERN ARIZONA...WITH CLEARING OVER
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. DRIER AND MUCH WARMER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
...POTENT UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...
INCOMING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO QUICKLY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE IN EAST-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH...EASILY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING
INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...WAS NOT PICKED UP WELL BY THE MODELS AND
MAY GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS
QUICKLY DEVELOPING AROUND 21Z ACROSS EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTY
CALIFORNIA AND OVER LA PAZ COUNTY ARIZONA AND THEN QUICKLY SPREADING
EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. MODEL POP GUIDANCE STILL IS
A BIT ON THE LOW SIDE...BUT FEEL OUR A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE FORECAST
POPS ARE JUSTIFIED BASED ON IMPRESSIVE WATER VAPOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SIGNATURE. WINDS HAVE YET TO PICK UP MUCH...BUT ONCE THIS FIRST
TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THEN A BIT LATER OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND POTENTIALLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
STILL SEEMS TO BE CENTERED AROUND 06Z TONIGHT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
REGIONAL WEATHER BALLOON SOUNDINGS FRIDAY EVENING CONTINUED TO SHOW
A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ABOUT 6 TO 7000 FEET DEEP
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CA TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. THIS
MOISTURE IS SIGNIFICANT RELATIVE TO THE COOLER TEMPS ALOFT...AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OTHERWISE...A POWERFUL AND FAST MOVING NEGATIVE TILT DIFLUENT TROF
IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AZ LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CURRENT MODELS...SPECIFICALLY THE GFS...IS NOT ONLY A
LITTLE FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONT...BUT IT DEEPENS THE TROF SLIGHTLY
MORE EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AZ. A VERY PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM PACIFIC
FLOW PATTERN IS PERHAPS PUSHING THIS SYSTEM FASTER/EASTWARD THAN
EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THEREFORE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...INCLUDING PHOENIX WILL LIKELY START A LITTLE EARLIER...
MEANING LATE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH A CHANCE OF TSTMS
HOWEVER IS SLATED FOR THIS EVENING...AFTER DARK...IN SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ.
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...
INCREASING CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. BACKING PRE-FRONTAL WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL MAKE FOR A WINDY AFTERNOON... WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN
SOUTHEAST CA/COLORADO RIVER WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS POSTED FOR
GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH.
THE COLD FRONT BY 5 PM LOCAL TIME WILL HAVE JUST MOVED ACROSS THE
COLORADO RIVER...THEN INTO PHOENIX AREA BY 8 PM. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY 5 PM WILL DEVELOP JUST NORTHWEST AND
NORTH OF BLYTHE CA ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER...AND OVER PORTIONS OF
LA PAZ COUNTY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN
PHOENIX BY 8 PM. IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...THEIR FAST MOVEMENT
COMBINED WITH PRECIP FALLING THROUGH 20-30 KNOT 850-700 MB
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS COULD CAUSE SUDDEN GUSTS TO PERHAPS 45 MPH.
SINCE THIS IS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM...MOST SHOWERS BY 5 AM SUN WILL
BE CONFINED TO AREAS GENERALLY FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD. SAME FOR THE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIOD.
SUNDAY NIGHT...RAPID CLEARING IS EXPECTED.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A
BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR 100 DEGREE HEAT ON THE
WARMEST DESERTS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
APPROACHING UL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS BEGINNING
LATE AM GNLY POST 17Z...BECOMING GUSTY UP TO 25KT OR SO DURING THE
AFTERNOON...EVEN STRONGER TO 30KT SATURDAY EVENING. EXPECT THE
STRONGEST WINDS IN A BURST RIGHT ALONG PASSING COLD FRONT. SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN MODEL FCSTS...BUT LIKELY WINDOW OF
FROPA AND STRONGEST WEST WINDS AROUND 26/02-04Z WINDOW.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO INCREASE AFTER 21Z...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BEGINNING OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS. VCSH
WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN AROUND PHX METRO PERIPHERY AFTER 26/00Z...WITH
SHOWERS STARTING EARLIER FOR KSDL AND KIWA BEFORE KPHX. CHANCE OF
THUNDER POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH THIS STRONG SYSTEM...SO INCLUDED
OVERNIGHT MENTION OF -TSRA POST-MIDNIGHT LOCAL 26/07Z. CIGS
STARTING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON 7-9KFT BEFORE DROPPING INTO THE 3-5KFT
RANGE WITH ONSET OF STEADY PRECIP LATE IN THE EVENING.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
APPROACHING UL TROUGH WILL PERSIST STRONG WINDS STEADILY INCREASING
AFTER 25/16Z...PEAK GUSTS UP TO 40KT WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA
BY LATE AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PERIODS OF
BLOWING DUST REDUCING VISIBILITY DOWN TO 2SM WILL BE COMMON WITH THE
STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS IMPERIAL COUNTY AND NEAR YUMA.
12Z TAFS TAKE AIRFIELD VSBYS DOWN TO 5SM BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY
LOWER VALUES FOR SHORTER PERIODS. SLANT VSBYS LIKELY IMPACTED DUE TO
LOFTED DUST. THE STRONGEST WINDS TO ABATE LATER INTO THE EVENING BUT
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 10-15KT RANGE WITH GUSTS STILL TOWARDS 20KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH...NEXT WEEK WILL SEE THE ARRIVAL
OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS FROM MONDAY
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUBSTANTIALLY AND
APPROACH THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE GNLY
LIGHT AND SHOULD FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM PDT TODAY FOR CAZ030>033.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/LEINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
1015 PM PDT Fri Apr 24 2015
.Synopsis...
A fast moving wet system pushes across the area tonight and
Saturday morning bringing at least light precipitation most areas.
High pressure brings dry conditions Sunday through mid week next week.
Warmest temperatures Monday with slight cooling trend through the
end of the week.
&&
.Discussion...
Precipitation has moved in a few hours early and updated forecast
to increase overnight rain chances and amounts. Short term model
indicate the heaviest rates between 11pm-4am. Snow is falling above
6000 feet and should begin accumulating on roadways during the
next few hours. Snow rates up to 2 inches per hour will be
possible in the 11pm-5am...hazard travel and chain control will be
likely after 11pm. Valley rain amounts will vary widely given
shadow effects with 0.50-1.00 inches southern valley and less than
0.10 northern valley. HRRR ends valley precip by 5am and current
precip may be over done if this model is correct.
.Previous Discussion...
Cooler this afternoon than yesterday with more cloud cover and
stronger onshore flow along with a cooler airmass. Temperatures
this afternoon are running in the upper 60s to low 70s in the
Valley and mid 30s to low 50s in the mountains, which are near
normal for this time of year. Temperatures will generally be a
little cooler tomorrow after behind the cold front that passes
through earlier in the day.
A cold and wet system will move in tonight (mainly after sunset) into
Saturday bringing widespread precipitation and lower snow levels.
Increased precipitation amounts some from previous forecast,
especially around I-80 and south. Precipitation is expected to
become more showery during the day Saturday. Showers may linger
over the Sierra into Saturday evening. Snow levels are expected to drop
to around 5500 ft around midnight tonight. Snow accumulations of several
inches are expected over the passes with around a foot possible
over the Sierra peaks. Snow may cause travel delays over the
Sierra with slick roads and reduced visibilities. The heaviest
snow is expected around midnight to around sunrise. Rainfall amounts are
generally expected to be a tenth to around a third of an inch in
the Valley and Coastal Range, and around half to 0.75 inches in
Sierra foothills and around an inch in the Sierra. Afternoon
temperatures on Saturday are expected to reach the upper 60s to
low 70s in the Valley and mid 30s to low 50s in the mountains.
These temperatures are generally a few degrees below normal for
this time of year. Temperatures warm up Sunday afternoon by around
10 degrees compared to Saturday as high pressure builds into the
area along with Northerly winds. Sunday afternoon highs are
expected to be in the upper 70s to low 80s in the Valley and upper
40s to upper 60s in the mountains which is generally a few degrees
above normal for this time of year. Sunday and Monday should be
dry with high pressure over the area.
.Extended Discussion (Tuesday through Friday)
High amplitude omega ridge shifts east through the Great Basin
Tuesday into Wednesday as a Pacific storm moves through the PacNW.
Result will be increasing onshore flow with minor synoptic cooling
trend. Main dynamics and moisture remain focused north of the
forecast area for dry weather Tue/Wed. Another system is progged
through Thursday with the GFS/GEM digging it deeper across NorCal
than the EC. With ridge axis well east over the middle of the U.S.,
leaning towards the deeper solutions and ADJMRA. Have introduced
threat of showers and thunderstorms mainly over the Shasta
mountains Thursday afternoon into evening. Greater cooling
expected Thursday with highs in the Central Valley forecast in the
mid 70s to around 80. Models differ from broad troughing aloft to
weak upper ridging Friday but all suggest drier weather with a
slight increase in max temps.
&&
.Aviation...
Dtrtg conds tngt as Pac stm movs inld. Areas MVFR in pcpn poss in
Cntrl Vly btwn 05z-17z Sat. Omtns aft 05z, wdsprd MVFR/IFR poss with
lcl LIFR in pcpn thru abt midday Sat then lcl MVFR/IFR poss in
shwrs til 04z Sun. Sn lvls lwrg to arnd 050 to 055 amsl by Sat
mrng. SW-Wly sfc wnd gsts up to 30 kts poss thru Delta and ovr hyr
mtn trrn tngt.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
winter weather advisory until 5 pm pdt saturday above 5500 feet
in the west slope northern sierra nevada...western plumas
county/lassen park.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1006 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015
THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS OVER FAR WESTERN COLORADO THIS EVENING
HAS DIMINISHED BUT NOT ELIMINATED SHOWERS. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MORNING. MOISTURE IS WORKING IN FROM
THE WEST BEHIND THE RIDGE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL
PROGGED TO BE MORE THAN 0.5 INCH ACROSS THE REGION. A STRONG VORT
MAX THAT WAS MOVING INTO NW UTAH WILL BRING A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO NE UTAH BEFORE SUNRISE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE THIS STRONGER FORCING
INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY REMAIN HIGH THROUGH SATURDAY. WET BULB ZERO
LEVELS ARE AROUND 9-10KFT THROUGH SATURDAY THOUGH CONVECTION WILL
DRIVE SNOW BRIEFLY DOWN ANOTHER 1K TO 2KFT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY THAT APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE ESPECIALLY FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW
10KFT. WE WILL EVALUATE FURTHER OVERNIGHT.
&&
UPDATE ISSUED AT 722 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015
MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS AS SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MORE ISOLATED
IN NATURE SO FAR THIS EVENING. HRRR HINTING AT AN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...FAVORING
EAST CENTRAL UTAH AS THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES. ADDITIONAL UPDATES
LIKELY AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AS H5 DIFLUENCE KEEPS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER THE
MOUNTAIN TERRAIN OF WESTERN COLORADO. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A
STRIKE OR TWO OF LIGHTNING CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN EASTERN UTAH AS
WELL...BUT DRIER AIR IS CURRENTLY SEEN ON SATELLITE IN EASTERN
UTAH SO ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS THIS EVENING THERE WILL BE MAINLY
GUSTY WINDS. THIS SMALL `BREAK` OF DRIER AIR WILL SHIFT INTO
WESTERN COLORADO TONIGHT...SO ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
AROUND SUNSET UNTIL JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATE RAIN MOVING INTO SW COLORADO BY 10 OR 11 PM TONIGHT AND
NE UTAH JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CLOUDY AND SHOWERY DAY ON TAP FOR SATURDAY AS A LEAD UPPER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS NW CO IN THE MORNING. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH A NERN
PACIFIC JET DIGGING THE MAIN BUT SPLITTING TROUGH SOUTH THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY FORMING A CLOSED LOW OVER
ERN AZ BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THIS LOW THEN TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL NM
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION RAMP UP AGAIN
LATER SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS THE 700 MB TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT COME THROUGH WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.5 TO 0.7
INCH. FLOW SWITCHES FAIRLY QUICKLY TO EASTERLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
NAM AND TO SOME EXTENT THE GFS TRY TO BRIEFLY WRAP SOME DRIER AIR
BACK IN MIDDAY SUNDAY ON THE 305K ISENTROPIC SURFACE (ROUGHLY
700-600 MB) BUT THEN QUICKLY FILLS IT IN AS THE EASTERLY FLOW
PUSHES MOISTURE OVER THE DIVIDE. TEMPS ALOFT NOT OVERLY COLD
HOWEVER...SO SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH OUTSIDE OF THE
STRONGER CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/T-STORMS THAT COULD DRIVE IT BELOW
8000 FT AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS HOWEVER...BUT THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS WITH MODELS
PUTTING OUT 6+ INCHES BY SUNDAY EVENING OVER THE SAN JUANS AND ELK
MTNS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015
THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY WITH DRIER
AIR PUSHING ACROSS ERN UT INTO WRN CO. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST MAINLY ALONG THE DIVIDE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WORKING ON THE COOLER AIR. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD BY MIDWEEK
FOR A DRYING AND WARMING TREND. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE
NORMAL. MAY SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEK AS MODELS
BRING A PACIFIC TROUGH INLAND AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015
ONLY ISOLATED MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH 09Z. THEN A
BROADER AREA OF SHRA/SHSN AND LOW CIGS/VSBY TO IMPACT NE UTAH
FIRST. BETWEEN 12-15Z THIS BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REMINDER OF EASTERN UTAH AND THROUGH WESTERN COLORADO BETWEEN
12Z-18Z. EXPECT WIDESPREAD -SHRA/-SHSN WITH SCT THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THIS BAND...WITH CIGS BLO 050 AND VIS BLO 3SM AT TIMES IN THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS. MTN TOPS WILL BE OBSCD AT TIMES IN SHSN. SNOW
LEVEL AROUND 10000FT EXCEPT DOWN TO 8000FT IN HEAVIEST STORMS.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...JAM/JAD
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...JOE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
1004 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-TONIGHT...A VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS OCCURRING
WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. EVENING SOUNDINGS WERE
QUITE MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER 1.8 TO 1.9 INCHES AT CANAVERAL
AND TAMPA. A SMALL CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER THE MIDDLE GULF OF
MEXICO HAS ALREADY DIMINISHED...BUT WITH BREEZY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD
OF BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY...EXPECT THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS
MOVING WELL INLAND OFF OF THE GULF. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS SOME LIGHT
DEBRIS RAINFALL PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTH HALF. THIS MODEL ALSO
SHOWS SLIGHT LIGHTNING CHANCES...BUT WILL NOT FOLLOW ALONG WITH
THAT. INSTEAD...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WITH THE MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE.
MIN TEMPS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
LOWER/MID 70S. A FEW RECORD WARM LOWS ARE POSSIBLE.
MON...A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLING SOUTH OVER THE ATLANTIC
WILL DIMINISH LOW LEVEL WINDS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW AN EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP. THIS FACT...COMBINED WITH MID/HIGH CLOUD LAYERS
SHOULD KNOCK MAX TEMPS DOWN SOME...INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S. QUITE HIGH
MOISTURE IS INDICATED BUT DUE TO REDUCED SOLAR INSOLATION...COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS LOOKS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE VERY
MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW. CEILINGS COULD DROP DOWN TO AROUND FL010 BUT
MOSTLY EXPECT THEM AT OR ABOVE FL020. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
ON MON...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...OFFSHORE BUOYS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY UNDER PERFORMING MARINE
MOS. EXPECT THERE IS A STABILITY FACTOR AT PLAY WITH WEST FLOW OFF
THE COOLER SHELF WATERS KEEPING 15-20 KNOTS WINDS A LITTLE ABOVE
THE SEA SURFACE. WITH SLIGHT TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INDICATED BY THE MODELS...WILL CONTINUE AN EXERCISE CAUTION
STATEMENT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
MON...AN OFFSHORE WIND FLOW 10-15 KNOTS IS INDICATED EARLY THEN
THE FLOW WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE NORTH AS A WEAK BOUNDARY SETTLES
SOUTH OVER THE WATERS. SPEEDS SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH FURTHER DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH SET AT MLB TODAY. ALSO VRB TIED THEIR RECORD
HIGH... WHICH WAS ALSO THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURE ON RECORD FOR THE
MONTH OF APRIL.
RECORD WARM LOW TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE SET/TIED DAB/MCO/MLB/VRB TODAY.
HIGH TODAY RECORD LOW TODAY RECORD WARM LOW
MLB 93 92 IN 2006 74 73 IN 1957
VRB 95 95 IN 1945 74 74 IN 2011
DAB 88 93 IN 1967 74 72 IN 2011
MCO 89 98 IN 1908 76 73 IN 1908
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
FORECAST/UPDATES...LASCODY
IMPACT WEATHER...VOLKMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
433 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING...
.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
THE NOON EDT REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK WARM FRONT
EXITING OUR FORECAST AREA TO THE NORTHEAST (ACROSS CENTRAL GA), AND
A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST FL COAST. THERE WAS A 1008 MB LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST LA, ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCS. VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR
DATA SOWED A +PV ANOMALY (NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT)
EXITING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. IT WAS THIS FEATURE (ALONG WITH THE
WARM FRONT) THAT HELPED TO GENERATE THE DEEP MOIST CONVECTION THIS
MORNING. AS OF 3 PM EDT, THE STORMS OVER OUR REGION HAD DECREASED
AND WERE RATHER ISOLATED, BEING PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS AND A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
THERE WAS ANOTHER +PV ANOMALY OVER SOUTHEAST LA THAT WILL
TRANSLATE QUICKLY EASTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING. WE EXPECT SOME OF
THE DEEP MOIST CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE (CURRENTLY
THE MCS IN SOUTHEAST LA) TO REACH OUR FORECAST AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
RECENT RAP ANALYSES STILL SHOWED 0-6 BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 50 TO 60
KT ACROSS OUR REGION. COUPLED WITH A MOIST, MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS, THERE COULD STILL BE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ACROSS OUR
REGION THROUGH SUNSET. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL ARE THE MAIN
THREATS, BUT THERE IS JUST ENOUGH 0-1 KM SHEAR (25 KT) TO SUPPORT A
LOW-END TORNADO THREAT AS WELL, ESPECIALLY ALONG MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES. AFTER SUNSET THE CAPE WILL DECREASE AND THE FORCING WILL
DIMINISH, SO WE EXPECT THE RAIN TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY
MIDNIGHT.
.SHORT TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...
AT UPPER LEVELS, THE ELONGATE E-W ORIENTED TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND THE GREAT LAKES WILL AMPLIFY SOUTHWARD AS IT SWEEPS OFF THE EAST
COAST. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CUT OFF OVER NEW MEXICO ON
SUNDAY AND MOVE EAST TO OKLAHOMA BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE GULF COAST
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER FAIRLY ZONAL FAST FLOW WITH THE SEEMINGLY
EVER-PRESENT SUBTROPICAL JET FIRMLY IN PLACE ON SUNDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL LIFT TEMPORARILY NORTHWARD ON MONDAY. AT THE
SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON
SUNDAY TO OFF OUR COASTLINE BY MONDAY. ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL WORK
ITSELF INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES BY SUNDAY TO PRECLUDE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THERE. AREAS SOUTH OF A DOTHAN TO TIFTON LINE WILL SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
COVERAGE INCREASING AS YOU HEAD SOUTH. 50-55 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL OVERLAY SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1200 J/KG (ALONG AND S OF
I-10) WHICH WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVETION AND ANOTHER SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. SPC HAS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA OUTLINED FOR A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER, WE FEEL THAT THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEVERE WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. BY
MONDAY, INCREASED DRY AIR AND LOWER CAPE WILL PRECLUDE A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA LINE.
.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY]...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL OPEN UP AS IT MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, BUT SOME REMNANT ENERGY WILL BE
LEFT BEHIND AND EVENTUALLY DEEPEN INTO ANOTHER CUT-OFF CLOSED LOW
SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF TX OR LA. THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES
IN HOW THE MODELS EVOLVE THE LOW EASTWARD WITH THE GFS MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE EURO. THERE WILL BE A SURFACE REFLECTION OF
THIS FEATURE SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
COAST BY TUESDAY. AGAIN, THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES AS TO WHAT
LATITUDE THE LOW WILL TRACK EWD ALONG. A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK
WOULD FAVOR MORE THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE THREAT WHILE A MORE
SOUTHERLY ROUTE WOULD MEAN MAINLY SHOWERS. THESE DETAILS WILL NEED
TO BE WORKED OUT IN FUTURE FORECASTS WHEN WE WILL HOPEFULLY SEE A
MODEL CONSENSUS DEVELOP. ONE THING THAT IS CERTAIN IS THAT THE THE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD WILL BE THE MOST UNSETTLED WITH
HIGHEST POPS. LATER IN THE WEEK, THE EURO DRIES US OUT AND THE GFS
DEVELOPS ANOTHER GULF LOW. TO ADDRESS THE UNCERTAINTY WE HAVE
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY] MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL
DETERIORATE TO IFR OVERNIGHT AS LOW CIGS SET IN AROUND MIDNIGHT.
LOW VSBYS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT TLH AND VLD AROUND SUNRISE.
WINDS FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WILL BE QUITE GUSTY TODAY AND
TOMORROW AT MOST SITES, AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KTS OCCASIONALLY, THOUGH THEY WILL BE LIGHTER OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
DRIFTS SOUTH TOWARD THE WATERS. THESE WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SLIDE
SOUTH IN THE WATERS BY MONDAY MORNING BRIEFLY SWITCHING WINDS TO
OFFSHORE. THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY ONWARD IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AND TRACK OF A GULF LOW THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR
NOW THE FORECAST REFLECTS MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY
SWITCHING TO STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
FORECAST IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS KEEPING
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN HAS LEFT MANY OF OUR AREA RIVERS IN
ACTION STAGE, WITH A FEW THAT REACHED FLOOD STAGE. THE
CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER AT BRUCE AND THE APALACHICOLA RIVER AT
BLOUNTSTOWN ARE THE ONLY TWO SITES REMAINING IN FLOOD STAGE AND
HAVE BOTH PEAKED AND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY AND TOMORROW IS NOT FORECAST TO CAUSE
ANY FURTHER FLOODING, HOWEVER A ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN ON TUESDAY IN
NORTH FLORIDA MAY CAUSE SOME AREA RIVERS TO RISE TO ACTION OR
FLOOD STAGE BY MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK. CURRENTLY THE MOST VULNERABLE
SITES WOULD BE THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE AT BRUCE AND CARYVILLE AND THE
APALACHICOLA RIVER AT BLOUNTSTOWN AGAIN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 73 89 69 86 64 / 30 30 20 20 30
PANAMA CITY 74 81 71 79 65 / 20 30 20 30 40
DOTHAN 70 87 64 83 59 / 10 10 10 10 20
ALBANY 70 87 64 81 57 / 30 10 10 10 10
VALDOSTA 71 88 66 82 62 / 40 30 20 20 20
CROSS CITY 73 85 69 84 64 / 30 40 30 40 30
APALACHICOLA 75 83 71 81 68 / 20 40 20 40 40
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR COASTAL BAY.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...MOORE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
304 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING A BROAD RIDGING
PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA
PENINSULA. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING TO OUR NORTH WILL ACT TO
FLATTEN THE FLOW TO A MORE ZONAL CONFIGURATION BY THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. 12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE SHOWED WE
STILL HAVE THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WITH A FAIRLY WELL
DEFINED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOWING UP AROUND 800MB. THE
RESULTING CAP IS PRETTY STRONG (AT LEAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ZONES) AND SINCE WE WILL NOT BE SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
HEIGHT FALLS...IT WILL TAKE CONSIDERABLE SURFACE HEATING TO
OVERCOME THIS INHIBITION. THE KJAX SOUNDING STILL SHOWED A BIT OF
A CAP...BUT NOT AS IMPRESSIVE...SO THE INHIBITION DOES WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT TOWARD OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES.
AT THE SURFACE...
FLOW IS TURNING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS THE GRADIENT BEGINS
TO TIGHTEN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING THROUGH THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...AND LOW PRESSURE/WARM FRONTAL FEATURE PASSING WELL TO
OUR NORTH. THE UPPER ENERGY PASSING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
COMBINED WITH THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT IS RESULTING
IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
I-10 CORRIDOR OF FLORIDA UP INTO GA. HOWEVER...APPEARS THIS
INCLEMENT WEATHER WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF OUR FORECAST ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
REST OF TODAY...
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY PUSHED VERY QUICKLY INLAND TODAY ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE SYNOPTIC SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SAW JUST A FEW BRIEF
SHOWERS POP UP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR...BUT THESE ARE NOW EXITING THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD THE
FLORIDA I-95 CORRIDOR. SUBSIDENCE AND THE CAPPING ALOFT WILL
GENERALLY NOW RESULT IN A DRY AND BREEZY REST OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
TONIGHT...
MAJORITY OF DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE OVER TOWARD THE I-95
CORRIDOR THIS EVENING WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
STORM OVER OUR FAR INLAND AREAS...AND THAT THREAT WILL BE ENDING
FAIRLY EARLY. WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH
STEADY SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. LATE AT NIGHT WILL
SEE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS AL/GA. THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF BETWEEN
1000-850MB BECOMES SLIGHTLY CONVERGENT IN NATURE USING STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS. USUALLY SPEAKING IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FORCING/TRIGGER WITHIN SW FLOW TO GET SOME SHOWERS GOING OVER THE
WATER. THEREFORE WOULD EXPECT THIS LOWER LEVEL FOCUS TO SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SCT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THAT WOULD THEN TRANSLATE TOWARD THE NATURE
COAST LATE AT NIGHT. MAY EVEN SEE A FEW SHOWERS AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE TAMPA BAY AREA TOWARD DAWN. WILL HAVE LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR
THE NATURE COAST AND NORTHERN MARINE ZONES...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
20% POP FURTHER SOUTH TO TAMPA BAY.
SUNDAY...
SURFACE FRONT SETTLES DOWN TOWARD THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY LATE IN THE
DAY. THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH SOME SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST CONUS SUGGESTS THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES...IN THE FORM OF SCT SHOWERS / ISOLATED STORMS WILL EXIST
TO THE NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. FURTHER SOUTH WHERE THERE WILL
BE LITTLE TO NO SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR LIFT...IT WOULD TAKE THE
SEA-BREEZE TO FORCE CONVECTION...AND EXPECTING THE STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE BL TO PREVENT MUCH OF A DEFINED SEA-BREEZE
FROM FORMING. SO...FORECAST WILL FEATURE CHANCE 30-50% POPS WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND SLIGHT CHANCE
20% POPS AND PARTLY CLOUDY FURTHER SOUTH TO AROUND SARASOTA.
FINALLY WILL KEEP RAIN MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE FAR
SOUTH AROUND FORT MYERS. THIS FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WILL HAVE TO WAIT
UNTIL MONDAY...WHEN THE FRONT IS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY...TO SEE
THEIR SHOWER/STORM CHANCES INCREASE.
&&
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)...
AN UPPER LOW INITIALLY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TRACKS EAST
THROUGH TUE WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THE GULF REGION...ALLOWING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MEANDER WEST TO EAST ACROSS FL AND THE
ADJACENT WATERS. BY LATE TUE OR EARLY WED THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH HAS
REACHED THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SAGGED SOUTH INTO THE GULF...
FORMING A SURFACE LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF OR GULF COAST. THESE TWO
FEATURES MOVE EAST...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE SURFACE LOW...
ACROSS THE LOWER EASTERN SEABOARD AND OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC DURING
THU OR EARLY FRI. FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD DEEP LAYER RIDGING
BUILDS IN THE MID CONUS AND BEGINS TO WORK EAST.
THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE IS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS AND ARE
SUSPECTED OF OVER DOING SOME ELEMENTS. THE ECMWF IS MORE
ROBUST...FASTER...AND WITH A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK THAN THE GFS. IN
ANY CASE THE FORECAST THINKING IS FOR A MOIST TO WET EARLY AND MID
WEEK THEN DRYING OUT GOING TOWARD THE WEEKEND. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE
AND BEST ODDS OF STRONG STORMS AND SOME FLOODING WILL BE TUE INTO
WED. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WILL DROP TO NEAR NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND...THANKS IN PART TO CLOUD COVER...RAINFALL...AND DRIER
COOLER AIR MOVING IN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED WELL INLAND LEAVING ALL THE
TERMINALS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WITH PREVAILING
VFR CONDITIONS AND LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF RAIN THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE STEADY AND GUSTY AT TIMES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...WITH THE WINDS BECOME LESS GUSTY AFTER SUNSET. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR KSRQ/KPIE/KTPA AND
KLAL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...HOWEVER POTENTIAL IS LOW ENOUGH AT
THIS POINT TO LEAVE MENTION OUT OF THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE.
&&
.MARINE...
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR NORTH AND A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE GRADIENT WILL BE
TIGHTEST TO THE NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD WHERE CAUTIONARY LEVEL WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH CAUTIONARY LEVELS THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY AS A FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THIS
FRONT WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND STALL
DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKING SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY STALLING ACROSS
NORTH FLORIDA DURING SUNDAY. WILL SEE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. AS THIS
FRONT SINKS FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE STATE ON MONDAY...BETTER RAIN
CHANCES WILL ALSO EXPAND SOUTH TO INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK AND OTHER THAN HIGH DISPERSION INDICES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.
FOG POTENTIAL...A FEW AREAS OF LATE NIGHT FOG ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 77 86 76 83 / 10 30 40 50
FMY 76 90 77 91 / 0 10 10 40
GIF 73 88 73 86 / 0 20 40 50
SRQ 77 84 76 85 / 0 20 40 50
BKV 71 87 70 85 / 20 30 40 50
SPG 77 85 76 83 / 10 20 40 50
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...14/MROCZKA
LONG TERM...09/RUDE
DECISION SUPPORT...09/RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1134 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
.UPDATE...
15Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING A BROAD RIDGING
PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA
PENINSULA. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING TO OUR NORTH TODAY WILL
ACT TO FLATTEN THE FLOW TO A MORE ZONAL CONFIGURATION BY THIS
EVENING AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. 12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE
SHOWED WE STILL HAVE THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WITH A
FAIRLY WELL DEFINED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOWING UP AROUND 800MB.
THE RESULTING CAP IS PRETTY STRONG (AT LEAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ZONES) AND SINCE WE WILL NOT BE SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
HEIGHT FALLS...IT WILL TAKE CONSIDERABLE SURFACE HEATING TO
OVERCOME THIS INHIBITION. THE KJAX SOUNDING STILL SHOWED A BIT OF
A CAP...BUT NOT AS IMPRESSIVE...SO THE INHIBITION DOES WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT TOWARD OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES.
AT THE SURFACE...
FLOW IS TURNING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS THE GRADIENT BEGINS
TO TIGHTEN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING THROUGH THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...AND LOW PRESSURE/WARM FRONTAL FEATURE PASSING WELL TO
OUR NORTH. THE UPPER ENERGY PASSING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
COMBINED WITH THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT IS RESULTING
IN SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR OF
FLORIDA UP INTO GA. A TORNADO WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT AS CLOSE AS
TAYLOR AND LAFAYETTE COUNTIES WITHIN NWS TALLAHASSEE COVERAGE
AREA...AND SUWANNEE AND COLUMBIA COUNTIES IN NWS JACKSONVILLE
COVERAGE AREA. ALTHOUGH THIS WATCH IS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO OUR
NORTHERN ZONES...AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE AN EXPANSION
FURTHER SOUTH OF THIS WATCH LATER TODAY INTO LEVY/CITRUS/SUMTER
COUNTIES. IN FACT...WE MAY HAVE DIFFICULTY SEEING ANY
THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY.
REST OF TODAY...
SEEING A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE PENINSULA AS THE CU
FIELD BEGINS TO DEVELOP ATOP THE MIXED LAYER. WITH THE MIXING NOW
TAKING PLACE...WINDS ARE BECOMING GUSTY AT TIMES...AND EXPECT
THINGS TO REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. ONLY EXPECTING SOME LOW POPS (ISOLATED CONVECTION) TODAY.
SEEING A WEAK BOUNDARY PIVOTING ONSHORE AS WE SPEAK AND WILL
LIKELY SEE A FEW VERY BRIEF AND SHALLOW SHOWERS/SPRINKLES AS IT
QUICKLY TRANSLATES INLAND IN THE STEADY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE
COMBINATION OF ANY SEA-BREEZE QUICKLY TRANSLATING INLAND AND OUT
OF OUR AREA AND THE CAPPING ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUGGESTS THAT
CONVECTION WILL NOT BE PLENTIFUL TODAY.
TONIGHT...
MAJORITY OF DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE OVER TOWARD THE I-95
CORRIDOR THIS EVENING WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
STORM OVER OUR FAR INLAND AREAS...AND THAT THREAT WILL BE ENDING
FAIRLY EARLY. WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH
STEADY SOUTHWEST FLOW OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. LATE AT NIGHT WILL
SEE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS AL/GA. THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF BETWEEN
1000-850MB BECOMES SLIGHTLY CONVERGENT IN NATURE USING STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS. USUALLY SPEAKING IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FORCING/TRIGGER WITHIN SW FLOW TO GET SOME SHOWERS GOING OVER THE
WATER. THEREFORE WOULD EXPECT SCT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN TRANSLATE TOWARD
THE NATURE COAST. MAY EVEN SEE A FEW SHOWERS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
TAMPA BAY AREA TOWARD DAWN. WILL HAVE LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THE
NATURE COAST AND NORTHERN MARINE ZONES...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE 20%
POP FURTHER SOUTH TO TAMPA BAY.
SUNDAY...
SURFACE FRONT SETTLES DOWN TOWARD THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY LATE IN THE
DAY. THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH SOME SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST CONUS SUGGESTS THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES...IN THE FORM OF SCT SHOWERS / ISOLATED STORMS WILL EXIST
TO THE NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. FURTHER SOUTH WHERE THERE WILL
BE LITTLE TO NO SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR LIFT...IT WOULD TAKE THE
SEA-BREEZE TO FORCE CONVECTION...AND EXPECTING THE STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE BL TO PREVENT MUCH OF A DEFINED SEA-BREEZE
FROM FORMING. SO...FORECAST WILL FEATURE CHANCE 30-50% POPS WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND SLIGHT CHANCE
20% POPS AND PARTLY CLOUDY FURTHER SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA
THIS MORNING AND ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF BKN MVFR CIGS
LATER THIS MORNING AS THE CUMULUS FIELDS DEVELOPS...BUT THESE CIGS
WILL QUICKLY RISE ABOVE VFR LEVELS. WINDS ARE BECOMING GUSTY OUT
OF THE SOUTH AND WILL CONTINUE GUSTY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS
THEY SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR NORTH AND A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE GRADIENT WILL BE
TIGHTEST TO THE NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD WHERE CAUTIONARY LEVEL WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH CAUTIONARY LEVELS THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY AS A FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THIS
FRONT WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND STALL
DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 87 77 86 74 / 10 10 30 40
FMY 91 77 90 76 / 10 0 10 20
GIF 90 73 88 72 / 20 10 20 40
SRQ 86 77 85 75 / 0 10 10 40
BKV 89 71 86 69 / 10 10 40 40
SPG 86 77 85 76 / 10 10 20 40
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...14/MROCZKA
DECISION SUPPORT...09/RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1005 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
.UPDATE...
WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MORNING UPDATE, BUT
OVERALL THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. SURFACE RIDGE
CURRENTLY IS LOCATED ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
PENINSULA WITH A NEARLY CLOUD FREE SKY ALTHOUGH THE CU FIELD
BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS. THE SKY GRIDS ARE
A LITTLE HIGH SO WILL ADJUST THE FIRST COUPLE OF GRIDS DOWNWARD.
THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING SHOWS A STRONG CAP AT ABOUT 800MB BUT WITH
STRONG HEATING TAKING PLACE THIS MORNING ANY LIFTED PARCEL SHOULD
BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE CAP BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE IS THEN QUITE UNSTABLE ABOVE THIS LAYER WITH
SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT SO PLAN TO MENTION STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE
WITH THE MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS VERY WEAK WITH A
GENERAL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SO STORM MOTION WILL BE A
SLOW DRIFT TO THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST. THE HRRR HAS BEEN SHOWING
CONVECTION BEGINNING SHORTLY AFTER NOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AND THEN A SLOW DRIFT BACK TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST ESPECIALLY FROM NORTHERN BROWARD INTO PALM BEACH COUNTIES
WHICH MATCHES THE CURRENT FORECAST. SO DO NOT PLAN TO CHANGE THIS
PHILOSOPHY OF THINKING.
KOB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 736 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015/
AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST SFC WIND FLOW THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON, THEN TO SW THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE EAST COAST MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES STRENGTHENS AND INFLUENCES THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT. SEA BREEZES BY 16Z-17Z WILL MODIFY THE WIND
PATTERN, WITH SOLID SW WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS BY AROUND 00Z.
AIRMASS NOT AS MOIST AS THE PAST FEW DAYS, BUT STILL ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WESTERLY STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP THE GULF COAST DRY AND PUSH ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL, WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR EAST COAST TERMINALS IN AND
NEAR ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. INDICATING VCTS AT PBI-FLL
WHERE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATER, BUT MAY HAVE TO BE
EXPANDED LATER TODAY TO INCLUDE MIA AREA IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. /MOLLEDA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDE A WEAK AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE GEORGIA COASTLINE AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES RESULT IN GENERALLY EASTERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH STABLE WEATHER AS
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND RECENT
RADAR RETURNS INDICATE ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
KEYS.
FOR TODAY...WINDS ACROSS THE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY AS THE DAY PROGRESS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY A STABILIZING ROLE FOR TODAY...BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE PWAT COULD REMAIN AROUND 1.7
INCHES. SO WITH AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SEA BREEZES
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. THUS THE FORECAST
HAS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY CONCENTRATED
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PENINSULA WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE STABILIZING EFFECT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE.
FOR SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF AS A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
ENTER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS SYNOPTIC SET UP WILL HAVE DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE REMAINING NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA WITH A GENERALLY
STABLE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE. WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA.
FOR MONDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BY MONDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE ROUGHLY OFF THE COAST OF
JACKSONVILLE WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA.
THIS WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STARTING TO ERODE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FORECAST. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS INDICATES A BROAD SURFACE LOW
ENTERING THE NORTHERN GULF ON TUESDAY AND THEN BY WEDNESDAY THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD TO NORTH FLORIDA
WHILE A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF.
THIS FORECAST SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN A CONSIDERABLE CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS FORECAST INTO THE LATER PART
OF THE WEEK.
MARINE...
WINDS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS ARE GENERALLY EASTERLY AROUND 10
KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY BY THE AFTERNOON WITH GULF SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS AND THE
ATLANTIC SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION WITH ATLANTIC WINDS IN
THE 12 TO 17 KNOT RANGE AND IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE FOR THE
ATLANTIC WATERS.
UNCERTAINTY WILL CONTINUE IN THE WIND FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED
PERIODS WITH THE GUIDANCE FORECASTING A BROAD SURFACE LOW
ENTERING THE NORTHERN GULF ON TUESDAY AND THEN BY WEDNESDAY THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NORTH FLORIDA.
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE MAY BE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 89 75 93 75 / 30 10 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 78 93 77 / 20 0 20 20
MIAMI 91 76 93 77 / 20 0 10 10
NAPLES 90 78 89 75 / 10 0 10 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
500 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGHOUT SOUTHEAST GA AND ALONG I-10 CORRIDOR...
.CURRENTLY...
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE (1018
MILLIBARS) PUSHING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. WARM
FRONTOGENESIS IS OCCURRING OVER THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION AHEAD
OF STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE (995 MILLIBARS) OVER THE PLAINS
STATES. ALOFT...STOUT DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...CREATING STRONG WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT LOCALLY ABOVE 700 MILLIBARS (10000 FEET). MEANWHILE...A
POTENT AND SLOW MOVING TROUGH IS SPINNING OVER THE PLAINS
STATES. A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) IS MOVING ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. PERIODS
OF HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER OUR REGION WITHIN THE
STRONG W/NW FLOW ALOFT. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW
IS GENERALLY KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S...EXCEPT NEAR 70 AT
THE COAST.
.NEAR TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN...WITH BREEZY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER INLAND
SOUTHEAST GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS THROUGH OUR REGION. NOT BUYING INTO HRRR DEPICTION OF
DECAYING CONVECTION MIGRATING ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND PREFER THE ARW SOLUTION WHICH INDICATES THAT
CONVECTION WILL PRESS E/SE ACROSS THE OCMULGEE/ALTAMAHA RIVERS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY GLIDES INTO SOUTHEAST GA.
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WILL BE PINNED AND MAY HAVE A TOUGH TIME
MOVING INLAND AT ALL GIVEN TIGHT GRADIENT IN PLACE. ARW DEPICTS
CONVECTION BECOMING ORIENTED W/E TOWARDS SUNSET ALONG THE FL/GA
BORDER...AND THEN PRESSING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS I-10 EARLY THIS
EVENING. MID-LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD KEEP LATE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE FOR NORTH CENTRAL FL. MODEL
SOUNDINGS ALL DEPICT AN IMPRESSIVE VEERED WIND PROFILE WITH
MARGINAL INSTABILITY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED ALL
OF SOUTHEAST GA WITHIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE BIGGEST
THREATS. ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS
OUR REGION TODAY...HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S
BEFORE CONVECTION DEVELOPS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.
CONVECTION MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE EVENING ALONG THE INTERSTATE
10 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST GA. AS OUTFLOWS MOVE OVER THE WARM
NORTHEAST GULF WATERS...SOME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION MAY ALSO ATTEMPT
TO PUSH ONSHORE INTO THE FL BIG BEND AND WESTERN SUWANNEE VALLEY
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. KEPT GENERAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IN THE FORECAST GRIDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AS
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN PREVAILS.
.SHORT TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN SINKING SOUTHWARD FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION. STRONG DEEP-LAYERED W/SW FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
LOCALLY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...WITH OUTFLOWS FROM POSSIBLE MORNING
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF/SUWANNEE VALLEY BEING A
POSSIBLE TRIGGER. EXPECT THE BEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING TO
REMAIN OVER NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL...AND EVOLUTION IS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT MORE INSTABILTY AND A
PERSISTENT VEERING PROFILE...WHICH MAY BE CONDUCIVE TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED OUR ENTIRE AREA WITHIN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH DOWNBURST WINDS
AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. UNLESS THERE IS A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL MORNING CONVECTIVE EVENT...STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW HIGHS TO APPROACH 90 FOR MANY LOCATIONS AS BREAKS IN THE
HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING.
COLD FRONT WILL REACH SE GA SUNDAY EVENING AND PUSH SOUTH NEAR
THE GEORGIA / FLORIDA BORDER EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SEEP SLOWLY THROUGH NE FLORIDA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
AS THE FRONT DOES SEEP SOUTHWARD...LOCAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WILL LEND TO ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
10 AND MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN TIER ZONES WHERE SOME POOLING MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE
WILL RESIDE. DRIER AIR WELL NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP IT DRY
NORTH OF I-10 ON MONDAY. THE ISODROSOTHERM GRADIENT MONDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS INTERIOR SE GA ZONES TO MID /UPPER
60S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS SAME FRONT STALL ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA MONDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER WITH CONTINUED SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S INTERIOR SE
GA TO MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A SOUTHERN TRACK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST, GIVING OUR FORECAST AREA A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LOW SLIDING EAST TOWARDS
OUR REGION. THE POTENTIAL WILL BE FOR MAINLY SCATTERED TUESDAY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
POSSIBLE WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT BECOMES MORE
DEFINED. THE 00 UTC ECMWF CONTINUES FARTHER NORTH AND PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE SURFACE REFLECTION THAN THE GFS SOLUTION...WHICH
POSITIONS MUCH OF NE FL IN THE WARM SECTOR. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR MODEL TRENDS ON THIS. ECMWF SOLUTION BRING MORE OF A
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS FOR PORTIONS NE FL DUE TO THE MORE
NORTHERN TRACK.
THE GULF LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS WEST-SOUTHWEST
FLOW TAPS INTO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND PWATS COME UP TO CLOSE TO
1.8" WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED. THE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER WEDNESDAY...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN
THE 70S EXCEPT NEAR 80 SOUTHERN ZONES .
A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL PLUNGE INTO OUR
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS
FALLING TO THE 55-60 RANGE FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...
PERIODS OF MVFR/BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES WILL PERSIST AT VQQ
THROUGH 11Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT
LEAST 16Z AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 09Z-12Z AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KTS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. WILL
MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AND AMEND IF NECESSARY. SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AND GUSTY AFTER SUNRISE...AND
THEN SOUTHWESTERLY NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25
KNOTS AT THE TERMINALS TOWARDS 16Z. THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH SSI
TOWARDS 18Z...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
IMPACT THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS AFTER 21Z. INCLUDED PROB30
GROUPS FOR GUSTY WINDS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT THESE TERMINALS
THROUGHOUT THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO IMPACT
GNV AND SGJ AFTER 19Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND INTENSITY
REMAIN IN QUESTION. ACTIVITY MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING AND WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS WILL APPROACH CAUTION IN THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS...WITH CAUTION SPEEDS OF 15-20 KNOTS EXPECTED
OFFSHORE BY LATE MORNING. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PUSH
INTO THE NEAR SHORE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...PARTICULARLY IN THE WATERS ADJACENT TO SOUTHEAST GA. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST THIS EVENING AND WILL SURGE TO
CAUTION LEVELS NEAR SHORE AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OFFSHORE
BY LATE EVENING. SEAS OFFSHORE WILL PEAK IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL SEAS UP TO 8 FEET POSSIBLE.
CAUTION LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OFFSHORE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH
WINDS REMAINING NEAR CAUTION SPEEDS NEAR SHORE. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS BY EARLY MONDAY...WITH WINDS
BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND SUBSIDING BELOW CAUTION SPEEDS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND WILL LIKELY MOVE TOWARDS OUR REGION BY MIDWEEK. WINDS WILL
VEER TO A SOUTHEASTERLY AND THEN SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY LATE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK CONTINUES TODAY DUE TO A LINGERING
LONG PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL AROUND 2 FEET WITH A 13-15 SECOND
PERIOD. LOW RISK ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 85 69 90 64 / 60 60 20 10
SSI 82 70 86 64 / 60 60 20 10
JAX 89 70 90 66 / 50 50 40 20
SGJ 86 71 89 69 / 40 30 40 20
GNV 87 72 88 69 / 30 30 40 30
OCF 88 70 87 70 / 20 30 30 40
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT SUNDAY
FOR WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL
FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
NELSON/CORDERO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
104 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
STORM SYSTEM STILL WELL OUT TO THE WEST THIS MORNING AS FIRST
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. A SHORT
BREAK IN THE HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE, THOUGH SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP, BUT MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE AS THE LOW TRACKS TOWARDS THE REGION. HRRR AND NAM BOTH
PERSISTENT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SECOND ROUND LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AFTER 18Z. ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIER RAINFALL SEEMS TO BE PROJECTED FOR
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY SPRINGFIELD TO PARIS...SOME SCATTERED
ACTIVITY NORTH TO THE I-74 CORRIDOR CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SOME
MINOR UPDATES, BUT MAINLY A WET AND SHOWERY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS
HANGING UP IN THE 50S. BIGGER THREAT FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE
DEVELOPMENT STILL IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA...BUT THE TREND IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN AN
INCREASINGLY SOUTHERN TRACK FOR THE LOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY. MODELS ARE RELATIVELY
CONSISTENT IN TRACKING THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTHWEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA ALONG A WARM FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TODAY. MODELS FROM THE 00Z SUITE CONTINUE TO
REFLECT THAT EVEN OUR SE IL COUNTIES SHOULD REMAIN IN COOL
SECTOR...SUGGESTING THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE FROM HAIL AND
POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
THE THREATENED AREA DEVELOPS. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE PROGRESS
OF THE FRONT AS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ALONG
AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. BULK SHEAR 0-6KM OF 40-50 KTS IS
FORECAST FOR SOUTH OF I-70.
PERIODS OF OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
GIVEN OUR POSITION WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONT. BEST LIFT EVIDENT
BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. WITH VERY MOIST FLOW ADVECTING INTO THE AREA
(SHV SOUNDING FROM 25/00Z HAD 1.84 IN. OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WHICH
IS NEAR THE RECORD LEVEL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL LIKELY EXCEED AN INCH THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
PRECIPITATION AND ABUNDANT CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
HAVE LIMITED EVENING THUNDER CHANCES TO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AS SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE SLIDING ACROSS THE SOUTH
TIP OF THE STATE BY THAT POINT. OTHERWISE...RAIN CHANCES TO QUICKLY
ERODE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER SPINS OVER NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THINGS DRY FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. LONGER RANGE MODELS KEEP THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE
SOUTHERN LOW SOUTH OF OUR AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. HOWEVER, A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND THE NORTH CENTRAL
U.S. WILL BE ENTERING THE MIDWEST BY TUESDAY EVENING. A SMALL PIECE
OF ENERGY MAY CUT OFF IN THIS WAVE...BUT THERE IS NOT GOOD AGREEMENT
IN THE MODELS AS TO WHERE AND HOW STRONG. THE ECMWF IS WETTEST AND
MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE WAVE AND PINCHES OFF A LOW IN THE TROUGH
OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS AND
CANADIAN MODELS DO THIS ABOUT 18 HOURS EARLIER IN SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA. ENSEMBLES DO NOT SHOW MUCH AGREEMENT EITHER...SO WILL
KEEP WEDNESDAY DRY AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE BASICALLY REPRESENTS
THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY RAIN NEXT WEEK...AS AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS
TREND WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DURING MID TO LATE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED TO FINALLY RETURN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
CONCERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM IS THE CONTINUING IFR AND SCATTERED
LIFR CIGS AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE ILX TERMINALS. BRIEF CLEARING
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE
ATMOSPHERE GETS A BIT OF A DIURNAL INFLUENCE...BUT ANY BREAKS WILL
BE BRIEF WITH THE LOW IN SUCH CLOSE PROXIMITY AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS
FIRMLY BACK IN THE COLD AIR. CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDER STILL
POTENTIAL, PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS AROUND 20Z
THROUGH 00Z. CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST EXPECTED IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. TOMORROW MORNING
FORECAST ANTICIPATED TO BE MILD...CONCERN STILL REMAINS FOR
POTENTIAL REDUCTION OF VIS WITH THE INCREASED RH IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER BUT AS IS, THE WINDS SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TO COUNTER.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...BARKER
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1127 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
STORM SYSTEM STILL WELL OUT TO THE WEST THIS MORNING AS FIRST
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. A SHORT
BREAK IN THE HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE, THOUGH SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP, BUT MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE AS THE LOW TRACKS TOWARDS THE REGION. HRRR AND NAM BOTH
PERSISTENT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SECOND ROUND LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AFTER 18Z. ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIER RAINFALL SEEMS TO BE PROJECTED FOR
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY SPRINGFIELD TO PARIS...SOME SCATTERED
ACTIVITY NORTH TO THE I-74 CORRIDOR CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SOME
MINOR UPDATES, BUT MAINLY A WET AND SHOWERY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS
HANGING UP IN THE 50S. BIGGER THREAT FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE
DEVELOPMENT STILL IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA...BUT THE TREND IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN AN
INCREASINGLY SOUTHERN TRACK FOR THE LOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY. MODELS ARE RELATIVELY
CONSISTENT IN TRACKING THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTHWEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA ALONG A WARM FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TODAY. MODELS FROM THE 00Z SUITE CONTINUE TO
REFLECT THAT EVEN OUR SE IL COUNTIES SHOULD REMAIN IN COOL
SECTOR...SUGGESTING THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE FROM HAIL AND
POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
THE THREATENED AREA DEVELOPS. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE PROGRESS
OF THE FRONT AS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ALONG
AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. BULK SHEAR 0-6KM OF 40-50 KTS IS
FORECAST FOR SOUTH OF I-70.
PERIODS OF OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
GIVEN OUR POSITION WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONT. BEST LIFT EVIDENT
BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. WITH VERY MOIST FLOW ADVECTING INTO THE AREA
(SHV SOUNDING FROM 25/00Z HAD 1.84 IN. OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WHICH
IS NEAR THE RECORD LEVEL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL LIKELY EXCEED AN INCH THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
PRECIPITATION AND ABUNDANT CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
HAVE LIMITED EVENING THUNDER CHANCES TO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AS SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE SLIDING ACROSS THE SOUTH
TIP OF THE STATE BY THAT POINT. OTHERWISE...RAIN CHANCES TO QUICKLY
ERODE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER SPINS OVER NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THINGS DRY FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. LONGER RANGE MODELS KEEP THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE
SOUTHERN LOW SOUTH OF OUR AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. HOWEVER, A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND THE NORTH CENTRAL
U.S. WILL BE ENTERING THE MIDWEST BY TUESDAY EVENING. A SMALL PIECE
OF ENERGY MAY CUT OFF IN THIS WAVE...BUT THERE IS NOT GOOD AGREEMENT
IN THE MODELS AS TO WHERE AND HOW STRONG. THE ECMWF IS WETTEST AND
MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE WAVE AND PINCHES OFF A LOW IN THE TROUGH
OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS AND
CANADIAN MODELS DO THIS ABOUT 18 HOURS EARLIER IN SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA. ENSEMBLES DO NOT SHOW MUCH AGREEMENT EITHER...SO WILL
KEEP WEDNESDAY DRY AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE BASICALLY REPRESENTS
THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY RAIN NEXT WEEK...AS AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS
TREND WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DURING MID TO LATE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED TO FINALLY RETURN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
SCATTERED HEAVIER PRECIP OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS IS EXPECTED TO
FILL IN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH
LEFT EXIT REGION OF JET STREAK OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION. NAM TIME
HEIGHTS INDICATE STRONG DEEP LIFT FOR A PERIOD THIS MORNING WHICH
SHOULD INCREASE RAINFALL RATES AND PLAY HAVOC WITH CIGS. WILL KEEP
PREDOMINATE CIGS MVFR FOR NOW. AS THE WARM FRONT SOUTHWEST OF THE
TERMINALS BEGINS TO SURGE NORTH MAY HAVE LOWERING CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE MAIN PRECIP AREA. WILL TRY TO TREND THIS
POSSIBILITY WITH SO MUCH UNCERTIANTY BY KEEPING MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS IN PLACE THOUGH THERE COULD BE SPOTS WHERE IFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ONCE THE MAIN WAVE PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT MAY
BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TONIGHT TO LIMIT ANY BR VSBY DROPS.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...BARKER
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...BARKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
211 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
.UPDATE...
736 PM...EVENING UPDATE...BUMPED POPS UP QUITE A BIT FOR THIS
EVENING. UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA PRODUCING CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED LIGHTNING NEAR THE QUAD CITIES.
INSTABILITY ALOFT SHOULD WEAKEN AS THIS WAVE SHIFTS EAST...BUT DID
ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA THRU MID
EVENING. WHILE THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY INITIALLY...RAINFALL IS
SUFFICIENT TO MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS RISING THRU
THE 30S ACROSS NORTHWEST IL AND RFD MEASURED 0.14 OF RAIN THRU
00Z. HOWEVER...THE DRY LOW LEVELS COULD LEAD TO SOME BRIEF/MIXED
SLEET AT ONSET. HRRR HAS BEEN HANDLING THIS WAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED PRECIP QUITE WELL AND SHOWS PRECIP SHIFTING EAST OF THE
AREA BY LATE EVENING SO TRENDED POPS BACK LOWER TOWARD MIDNIGHT.
THEN RAIN CHANCES INCREASE IN THE PREDAWN HOURS INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AS THE MAIN LOW ARRIVES AND MADE NO CHANGES TO THIS TIME
PERIOD.
TEMPS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S WHERE RAIN IS
FALLING AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO MAKE SOME DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS FOR TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80. CMS
&&
.SHORT TERM...
323 PM CDT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH FAIRLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND ASSOCIATED RAIN
AND AMOUNTS.
DRY AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH
GRADUAL MOISTENING FROM BONE DRY CONDITIONS EARLIER TODAY THAT
WERE AMONGST DRIEST IN ENTIRE COUNTRY. W/V IMAGERY SHOWS SHORT
WAVE/MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX INTO EASTERN IA THAT IS RESULTING IN
OCCASIONAL VERY LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES REACHING THE GROUND DESPITE
LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. SUSPECT THAT HRRR MODEL IS TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH HIGHER REFLECTIVITY/RAIN REACHING THE GROUND SOUTH
OF I-88 OR SO AND FOCUS FOR MOST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE IN FAR NORTHERN CWA.
LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...AREA WILL BE IN BROAD
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT BUT ALSO LACKING FOCUS FOR PRECIP WITH
MIDLEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD. SUSPECT THAT THERE WILL BE SEVERAL
MAINLY DRY HOURS WITH PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. THEN MAIN
WAVE WILL START TO SPREAD IN FROM SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AS CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MIGRATES
ACROSS LOWER MO VALLEY. PRECIP WILL BE FIGHTING DRY EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST CWA...BUT THEN AS 700 MB FGEN
STRENGTHENS AND TROWAL LIKE FEATURE SPREADS ~1 TO ~1.25 INCH PWATS
ACROSS AREA...EXPECTING MID-LATE SATURDAY AM TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY
PERIODS OF RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS AND STEADY TO EVEN BRIEFLY HEAVY
RATES. VERY MINIMAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT WELL
SOUTH OF I-80...SO HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT EMBEDDED THUNDER CHANCES
THERE. STILL HAVE HIGH END LIKELY TO CAT POPS IN LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM NORTH SHOULD REDUCE
RATES...WITH PRECIP QUICKLY SHIFTING SOUTH DURING EVENING AND
SKIES CLEARING TOWARD EARLY SUNDAY.
RAIN AMOUNTS FROM MAIN SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
SHOULD RANGE FROM ABOUT 1/2 INCH IN FAR NORTHEAST TO A BIT UPWARDS
OF ONE INCH IN SOUTHWEST 1/4 TO 1/3 OF CWA. CONFIDENCE IN LOW-
MEDIUM IN THESE AMOUNTS GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR BANDING PLACEMENT TO
SHIFT.
REGARDING TEMPS...INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FALL TONIGHT...SO
GENERALLY IN 40S TONIGHT EXCEPT UPPER 30S NEAR LAKE COUNTY SHORE.
CLOUDS...RAIN AND GUSTY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL MAKE FOR RAW
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AND HIGHS ONLY RECOVERING TO THE LOW/MID
40S TO LOWER 50S...COOLEST ON ILLINOIS SHORE AND WARMEST SOUTH OF
I-80. TEMPS WILL THEN DIP BACK TO THE 30S BY EARLY SUNDAY WITH H8
TEMPS FALLING TO JUST BELOW 0 CELSIUS. EXPECTING SOME NORTHERN
INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO DIP TO AROUND FREEZING. OVERALL IT WILL BE
ANOTHER NIGHT TO PROTECT COLD SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
RC
&&
.LONG TERM...
333 PM CDT
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY
ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLER CONDITIONS NEAR THE LAKE...BUT ALSO
GRADUAL WARMING INLAND. WITH POSSIBLY MINOR EXCEPTION OF
WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY DRY AS WELL. AIRMASS
WILL BE COOLEST SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH ONLY MID-UPPER
40S ALONG SHORE AND MID-UPPER 50S INLAND AND THEN OVERNIGHT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT AWAY FROM CHICAGO HEAT ISLAND IN LOWER-MID 30S. AS
HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST TOWARD EARLY MONDAY...WINDS MAY
DIMINISH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST PATCHY FROST...BUT HAVE NOT
ADDED IT TO GRIDS YET. INLAND HIGHS SHOULD BE INTO THE 60S EACH
DAY MON-THU AND TEMPS COULD APPROACH 70 NEXT FRIDAY.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* FARLY STOUT EASTERLY WINDS TODAY.
* POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN AND A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY TODAY...AND TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY THIS
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS
TODAY...THEN BECOMING MORE NORTH-NORTHEAST BY LATER THIS EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY HIGH.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND OCCURRENCE OF IFR TO LIFR CIGS
AND MODERATE RAINFALL IS DECREASING A BIT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...MAINLY NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO CONVERGE IN THIS AREA AROUND 700 MB. THIS
ACTIVITY COULD TRY TO MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MAIN TERMINALS
JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK PRIOR TO WEAKENING. HOWEVER...IT DOES
APPEAR THAT THE BEST AXIS OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF
MOST OF THE TERMINALS...WITH KMDW AND KGYY ENDING UP THE CLOSET TO
THIS AREA OF RAIN. DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES ON HOW FAR NORTH THIS
ACTIVITY IS ABLE TO GET TOWARDS MORNING I HAVE LEFT IN THE MENTION
OF VCSH.
ANOTHER WAVE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...THEN LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THE
MOST FAVORABLE AXIS OF BETTER RAINFALL MAY END UP A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH THEN WHAT WAS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. THEREFORE...THERE IS SOME
INCREASED UNCERTAINTY ON THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE RAINFALL
OVER FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS. AT THIS TIME...I HAVE ONLY BACKED OFF
SLIGHTLY ON RAIN INTENSITY...BUT ADDITIONAL CHANGES MAY BE NEEDED
IF IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE PRECIP MAY REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH.
THIS COULD ALSO MEAN CIGS DO NOT DETERIORATE AS MUCH AS CURRENTLY
FORECAST.
ANY RAIN AND LOW CIGS THAT DO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA SHOULD IMPROVE
EITHER BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...OR BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS DRIER
AIR WORKS BACK OVER THE REGION.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MED-HIGH WITH WIND FORECAST.
* LOW-MED WITH RAIN EXTENT OVER THE TERMINALS.
* MED WITH CIG FORECAST.
KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS 20-25 KTS.
MONDAY...VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
TUESDAY...VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING EAST.
WEDNESDAY...SLGT CHC -RA. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTH-NORTHWEST
WINDS.
THURSDAY...VFR. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
210 AM CDT
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY...THEN OVER THE
THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. OVERALL...THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME STRONGER
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY...FOLLOWED BY NORTHERLY WINDS LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UP TO AROUND
25 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THESE
WINDS COULD RESULT IN LARGER WAVES UP TO AROUND OR A BIT ABOVE 4
FEET ALONG THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEAR SHORE WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO FEATURE A RATHER
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A VERY WEAK WIND REGIME FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...AND HENCE WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS WILL LIKELY BE LARGELY
DRIVEN BY LAKE AND LAND BREEZE INFLUENCES.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 AM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
102 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
.UPDATE...
736 PM...EVENING UPDATE...BUMPED POPS UP QUITE A BIT FOR THIS
EVENING. UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA PRODUCING CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED LIGHTNING NEAR THE QUAD CITIES.
INSTABILITY ALOFT SHOULD WEAKEN AS THIS WAVE SHIFTS EAST...BUT DID
ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA THRU MID
EVENING. WHILE THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY INITIALLY...RAINFALL IS
SUFFICIENT TO MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS RISING THRU
THE 30S ACROSS NORTHWEST IL AND RFD MEASURED 0.14 OF RAIN THRU
00Z. HOWEVER...THE DRY LOW LEVELS COULD LEAD TO SOME BRIEF/MIXED
SLEET AT ONSET. HRRR HAS BEEN HANDLING THIS WAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED PRECIP QUITE WELL AND SHOWS PRECIP SHIFTING EAST OF THE
AREA BY LATE EVENING SO TRENDED POPS BACK LOWER TOWARD MIDNIGHT.
THEN RAIN CHANCES INCREASE IN THE PREDAWN HOURS INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AS THE MAIN LOW ARRIVES AND MADE NO CHANGES TO THIS TIME
PERIOD.
TEMPS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S WHERE RAIN IS
FALLING AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO MAKE SOME DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS FOR TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80. CMS
&&
.SHORT TERM...
323 PM CDT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH FAIRLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND ASSOCIATED RAIN
AND AMOUNTS.
DRY AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH
GRADUAL MOISTENING FROM BONE DRY CONDITIONS EARLIER TODAY THAT
WERE AMONGST DRIEST IN ENTIRE COUNTRY. W/V IMAGERY SHOWS SHORT
WAVE/MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX INTO EASTERN IA THAT IS RESULTING IN
OCCASIONAL VERY LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES REACHING THE GROUND DESPITE
LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. SUSPECT THAT HRRR MODEL IS TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH HIGHER REFLECTIVITY/RAIN REACHING THE GROUND SOUTH
OF I-88 OR SO AND FOCUS FOR MOST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE IN FAR NORTHERN CWA.
LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...AREA WILL BE IN BROAD
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT BUT ALSO LACKING FOCUS FOR PRECIP WITH
MIDLEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD. SUSPECT THAT THERE WILL BE SEVERAL
MAINLY DRY HOURS WITH PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. THEN MAIN
WAVE WILL START TO SPREAD IN FROM SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AS CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MIGRATES
ACROSS LOWER MO VALLEY. PRECIP WILL BE FIGHTING DRY EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST CWA...BUT THEN AS 700 MB FGEN
STRENGTHENS AND TROWAL LIKE FEATURE SPREADS ~1 TO ~1.25 INCH PWATS
ACROSS AREA...EXPECTING MID-LATE SATURDAY AM TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY
PERIODS OF RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS AND STEADY TO EVEN BRIEFLY HEAVY
RATES. VERY MINIMAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT WELL
SOUTH OF I-80...SO HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT EMBEDDED THUNDER CHANCES
THERE. STILL HAVE HIGH END LIKELY TO CAT POPS IN LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM NORTH SHOULD REDUCE
RATES...WITH PRECIP QUICKLY SHIFTING SOUTH DURING EVENING AND
SKIES CLEARING TOWARD EARLY SUNDAY.
RAIN AMOUNTS FROM MAIN SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
SHOULD RANGE FROM ABOUT 1/2 INCH IN FAR NORTHEAST TO A BIT UPWARDS
OF ONE INCH IN SOUTHWEST 1/4 TO 1/3 OF CWA. CONFIDENCE IN LOW-
MEDIUM IN THESE AMOUNTS GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR BANDING PLACEMENT TO
SHIFT.
REGARDING TEMPS...INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FALL TONIGHT...SO
GENERALLY IN 40S TONIGHT EXCEPT UPPER 30S NEAR LAKE COUNTY SHORE.
CLOUDS...RAIN AND GUSTY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL MAKE FOR RAW
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AND HIGHS ONLY RECOVERING TO THE LOW/MID
40S TO LOWER 50S...COOLEST ON ILLINOIS SHORE AND WARMEST SOUTH OF
I-80. TEMPS WILL THEN DIP BACK TO THE 30S BY EARLY SUNDAY WITH H8
TEMPS FALLING TO JUST BELOW 0 CELSIUS. EXPECTING SOME NORTHERN
INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO DIP TO AROUND FREEZING. OVERALL IT WILL BE
ANOTHER NIGHT TO PROTECT COLD SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
RC
&&
.LONG TERM...
333 PM CDT
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY
ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLER CONDITIONS NEAR THE LAKE...BUT ALSO
GRADUAL WARMING INLAND. WITH POSSIBLY MINOR EXCEPTION OF
WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY DRY AS WELL. AIRMASS
WILL BE COOLEST SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH ONLY MID-UPPER
40S ALONG SHORE AND MID-UPPER 50S INLAND AND THEN OVERNIGHT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT AWAY FROM CHICAGO HEAT ISLAND IN LOWER-MID 30S. AS
HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST TOWARD EARLY MONDAY...WINDS MAY
DIMINISH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST PATCHY FROST...BUT HAVE NOT
ADDED IT TO GRIDS YET. INLAND HIGHS SHOULD BE INTO THE 60S EACH
DAY MON-THU AND TEMPS COULD APPROACH 70 NEXT FRIDAY.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* FARLY STOUT EASTERLY WINDS TODAY.
* POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN AND A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY TODAY...AND TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY THIS
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS
TODAY...THEN BECOMING MORE NORTH-NORTHEAST BY LATER THIS EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY HIGH.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND OCCURRENCE OF IFR TO LIFR CIGS
AND MODERATE RAINFALL IS DECREASING A BIT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...MAINLY NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO CONVERGE IN THIS AREA AROUND 700 MB. THIS
ACTIVITY COULD TRY TO MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MAIN TERMINALS
JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK PRIOR TO WEAKENING. HOWEVER...IT DOES
APPEAR THAT THE BEST AXIS OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF
MOST OF THE TERMINALS...WITH KMDW AND KGYY ENDING UP THE CLOSET TO
THIS AREA OF RAIN. DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES ON HOW FAR NORTH THIS
ACTIVITY IS ABLE TO GET TOWARDS MORNING I HAVE LEFT IN THE MENTION
OF VCSH.
ANOTHER WAVE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...THEN LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THE
MOST FAVORABLE AXIS OF BETTER RAINFALL MAY END UP A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH THEN WHAT WAS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. THEREFORE...THERE IS SOME
INCREASED UNCERTAINTY ON THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE RAINFALL
OVER FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS. AT THIS TIME...I HAVE ONLY BACKED OFF
SLIGHTLY ON RAIN INTENSITY...BUT ADDITIONAL CHANGES MAY BE NEEDED
IF IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE PRECIP MAY REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH.
THIS COULD ALSO MEAN CIGS DO NOT DETERIORATE AS MUCH AS CURRENTLY
FORECAST.
ANY RAIN AND LOW CIGS THAT DO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA SHOULD IMPROVE
EITHER BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...OR BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS DRIER
AIR WORKS BACK OVER THE REGION.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MED-HIGH WITH WIND FORECAST.
* LOW-MED WITH RAIN EXTENT OVER THE TERMINALS.
* MED WITH CIG FORECAST.
KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS 20-25 KTS.
MONDAY...VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
TUESDAY...VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING EAST.
WEDNESDAY...SLGT CHC -RA. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTH-NORTHWEST
WINDS.
THURSDAY...VFR. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
215 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION HAS SET
UP GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. THE
LIGHT WINDS REGIME AND LAND-LAKE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING HAS SET UP A
LAKE BREEZE WITH NEARSHORE WINDS TAKING AN ONSHORE ORIENTATION
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT...LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE EAST TO NWRN
MO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND EAST
FROM THE LOW ACROSS CNTRL IL/IN...WITH WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY BY
LATE TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AS THE LOW TRACKS EWD...KEEPING WINDS OVER THE LAKE
ELY. AS THE LOW PASSES SOUTH OF THE LAKE AND A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES...WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 25-30 KT OVER THE
SRN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. AS THE LOW PASSES EAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL BACK TO
NORTHERLY. WHILE GALES ARE NOT LIKELY...WINDS OVER THE SRN
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO REQUIRE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AND EVEN THOUGH WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS WITH THE SHIFT TO NORTHERLY...THE LONG FETCH
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WAVES INTO
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE BY
TUESDAY MORNING AND REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK...SETTING A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS OVER
THE LAKE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 AM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
447 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
...UPDATED LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
AT THE SURFACE A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS FORECAST BY
THE 00Z NAM IN THE 900MB TO 850MB LEVEL IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY
LATE DAY. EVEN WITH THIS SLIGHT COOLING TREND THE 850MB TEMPERATURES
AT 00Z SUNDAY SUGGEST AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S
IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 56. THIS
APPEAR REASONABLE GIVEN THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED.
TONIGHT THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER AND EXTEND FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP, AND THE NAM AND GFS INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE. DEPTH OF THE NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE BY 12Z
SUNDAY WILL TO BE LESS THAN 3000FT AGL ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS SO AT THIS TIME WILL HOLD OF INSERTING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, DRIZZLE, TONIGHT. OVER WEST CENTRAL AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT THE THE DEPTH OF THE
MOIST LAYER WILL BE MARGINAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION. CURRENT
FORECAST CURRENTLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION NORTHWEST
OF A GARDEN CITY TO RUSH CENTRAL LINE AND SO WILL LEAVE THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST AS IS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE IN PLACE ON SUNDAY WITH A LACK OF
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AS WELL, WHICH APPEARS WELL AGREED UPON
BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM MODELS AT THIS TIME. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEWS SHOW A SATURATED LOWEST 1000-2500 FT WHILE
CAPPED BY A DRY LAYER ABOVE ABOUT THE 800 MB LEVEL. AL IN ALL A
CLOUDY AND COOL DAY WITH POSSIBLY PATCHY DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY LATER IN
THE DAY AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHED FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
NAM/ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES ALL TAKE THE 500 MB LOW TRACK THROUGH
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON MONDAY. THAT TRACK WILL PUT THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE DDC FORECAST AREA ON COLD CONVEYOR BELT/ AND UPPER
DEFORMATION AXIS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. A TRANSITION FROM CLOUDY
AND POSSIBLY DRIZZLE CONDITIONS RAIN SHOWERS AN POTENTIALLY A PERIOD
OF RAIN AND STRONGER CONVECTION IS LIKELY FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
THE LAST BLEND SOLUTION INCREASED POPS TO AROUND 70 PERCENT FOR
THESE AREAS. SUCH A PATTERN IS NOT VERY CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. COOLEST DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE SOUTH
ALONG THE OKLAHOMA LINE WHERE THE RAIN IS EXPECTED.
BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL DEVELOP BEYOND MONDAY WITH LITTLE OBVIOUS
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION . TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT A
WARMING TREND. MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS AND MODEL BLEND HIGHS ARE
FORECAST AROUND NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL, BUT WARMING TO THE 80S BY THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AND A CLEARING
TREND WILL BEGIN BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z SATURDAY AS SUBSIDENCE
DEVELOPS BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT CROSSES CENTRAL KANSAS
EARLY THIS MORNING. 00Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS, RAP, AND HRRR WERE ALL
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS AND KEEPS CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL
OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH SATURDAY. IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BUT SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS IN THE 3000 TO
4000FT AGL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HYS AREA. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND BY LATE MORNING
DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. THESE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL THEN
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 79 48 60 43 / 10 10 20 50
GCK 78 49 57 43 / 10 20 30 50
EHA 78 48 62 43 / 10 10 40 70
LBL 80 50 62 45 / 10 10 30 60
HYS 72 46 56 42 / 10 10 20 30
P28 81 51 66 47 / 10 10 20 50
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...33
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
159 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
AT THE SURFACE A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS FORECAST BY
THE 00Z NAM IN THE 900MB TO 850MB LEVEL IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY
LATE DAY. EVEN WITH THIS SLIGHT COOLING TREND THE 850MB TEMPERATURES
AT 00Z SUNDAY SUGGEST AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S
IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 56. THIS
APPEAR REASONABLE GIVEN THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED.
TONIGHT THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER AND EXTEND FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP, AND THE NAM AND GFS INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE. DEPTH OF THE NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE BY 12Z
SUNDAY WILL TO BE LESS THAN 3000FT AGL ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS SO AT THIS TIME WILL HOLD OF INSERTING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, DRIZZLE, TONIGHT. OVER WEST CENTRAL AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT THE THE DEPTH OF THE
MOIST LAYER WILL BE MARGINAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION. CURRENT
FORECAST CURRENTLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION NORTHWEST
OF A GARDEN CITY TO RUSH CENTRAL LINE AND SO WILL LEAVE THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST AS IS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
BY THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE BE
DEEPENING OVER THE WESTERN STATES THANKS TO A 120+ KNOT JET LOCATED
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
AND CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER NEW MEXICO ON SUNDAY BEFORE
MOVING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE TROUGH
AND LOW DEVELOP, LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL DROP SOUTH
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WHILE A COOL FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT. COOL AND MOIST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO CLOUDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN HOLDING ON TO THEIR RESPECTIVE
SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES OUT
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE FARTHEST NORTH WITH
ITS TRACK ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH OKLAHOMA INTO MISSOURI.
THIS MODEL IS SHOWING DECENT RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS TRACK THE UPPER
LOW OUT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS AND HAVE THE
BEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER. THE CURRENT FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY LOOKS
REASONABLE WITH LIKELY POPS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER THAT DIMINISH
FARTHER NORTH AND HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.
GIVEN THE CLOUDY, COOL AND MOIST CONDITIONS THAT DEVELOP, HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S
IN MANY LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD SEE DRIER AND WARMER
WEATHER RETURNING AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AND A CLEARING
TREND WILL BEGIN BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z SATURDAY AS SUBSIDENCE
DEVELOPS BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT CROSSES CENTRAL KANSAS
EARLY THIS MORNING. 00Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS, RAP, AND HRRR WERE ALL
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS AND KEEPS CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL
OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH SATURDAY. IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BUT SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS IN THE 3000 TO
4000FT AGL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HYS AREA. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND BY LATE MORNING
DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. THESE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL THEN
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 81 48 61 44 / 0 10 30 50
GCK 78 49 57 44 / 0 20 40 50
EHA 78 48 66 44 / 0 10 50 70
LBL 81 50 67 45 / 0 10 40 60
HYS 72 46 57 42 / 0 10 20 30
P28 82 51 65 47 / 0 10 30 50
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1208 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
AT 00Z SATURDAY A 500MB TROUGH/LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. THIS UPPER TROUGH WAS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A 250MB JET. FURTHER WEST A 500MB SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDED FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EAST/NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN CENTRAL KANSAS AT 00Z
SATURDAY. A DRYLINE EXTENDED SOUTH FROM THE WARM FRONT AND
STRETCHED FROM NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
THE SHORT-FUSE SEVERE WEATHER COMPOSITE AT MIDDAY WAS SHOWING A
THREAT AREA STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SLOWLY NORTHWARD ADVANCING
WARM FRONT ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS. SURFACE-BASED CAPE WAS
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG PER LAPS ANALYSIS AS OF 16Z. A SYNOPTIC DRY
INTRUSION/DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD, SHUNTING
THE SURFACE-BASED INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS UP TOWARD THE
I-70 CORRIDOR. BY 21Z, THE HRRR INDICATES DEEP MOIST CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE WARM FRONT BY 20-21Z. THERE SHOULD BE PRETTY
GOOD LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE FRONT WITH AMPLE STREAMWISE VORTICITY
TO INGEST INTO AN INCIPIENT SUPERCELL STORM. THE HRRR HAS SHOWN A
PERSISTENT LONG-TRACK UPDRAFT HELICITY SIGNAL, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A
FAIRLY LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM. IT CERTAINLY APPEARS THE
BEST TORNADO THREAT WILL BE UP ALONG THE FRONT ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR, WITH THE MOST VIGOROUS SURFACE-BASED STORMS EXITING OUR
AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (EAST OF ELLIS AND RUSH COUNTY) BY AS SOON AS
23Z. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE BENT-BACK REGION OF ENHANCED
CAPE/MOISTURE WESTWARD ALONG I-70 FOR FUTURE GROWTH OF DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION AS SOME OF THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN RISK ALONG THE FRONT UP THERE
SHOULD THE HRRR PAN OUT. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE
SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION BY LATE EVENING WITH SOME WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
MOMENTUM FINALLY PUSHING INTO OUR REGION ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
BY THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE BE
DEEPENING OVER THE WESTERN STATES THANKS TO A 120+ KNOT JET LOCATED
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
AND CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER NEW MEXICO ON SUNDAY BEFORE
MOVING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE TROUGH
AND LOW DEVELOP, LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL DROP SOUTH
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WHILE A COOL FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT. COOL AND MOIST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO CLOUDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN HOLDING ON TO THEIR RESPECTIVE
SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES OUT
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE FARTHEST NORTH WITH
ITS TRACK ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH OKLAHOMA INTO MISSOURI.
THIS MODEL IS SHOWING DECENT RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS TRACK THE UPPER
LOW OUT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS AND HAVE THE
BEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER. THE CURRENT FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY LOOKS
REASONABLE WITH LIKELY POPS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER THAT DIMINISH
FARTHER NORTH AND HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.
GIVEN THE CLOUDY, COOL AND MOIST CONDITIONS THAT DEVELOP, HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S
IN MANY LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD SEE DRIER AND WARMER
WEATHER RETURNING AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AND A CLEARING
TREND WILL BEGIN BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z SATURDAY AS SUBSIDENCE
DEVELOPS BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT CROSSES CENTRAL KANSAS
EARLY THIS MORNING. 00Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS, RAP, AND HRRR WERE ALL
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS AND KEEPS CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL
OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH SATURDAY. IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BUT SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS IN THE 3000 TO
4000FT AGL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HYS AREA. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND BY LATE MORNING
DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. THESE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL THEN
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 48 61 44 58 / 10 30 50 50
GCK 49 57 44 57 / 20 40 50 50
EHA 48 66 44 55 / 10 50 70 70
LBL 50 67 45 57 / 10 40 60 60
HYS 46 57 42 60 / 10 20 30 30
P28 51 65 47 60 / 10 30 50 50
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1100 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015
AT 1PM MDT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOWED PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE TRI
STATE AREA WEST OF HIGHWAY 83...WITH LOWER BROKEN TO OVERCAST
CONDITIONS EAST OF THE HIGHWAY AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ON RADAR
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG A TROUGH/DRY LINE IN EASTERN COLORADO.
RAP AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BEGINNING TO TAKE A NEGATIVE TILT INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHER
HIGH PLAINS.
THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING CONVECTIVE INITIATION AT
20Z...ALTHOUGH CELLS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. NMM AND ARW
GUIDANCE IS ALSO A BIT BEHIND REALITY WITH HAVING CONVECTION DEVELOP
BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. 0-1 KM AND 0-3 KM HELICITY WAS NOT IMPRESSIVE
WITH WIDESPREAD VALUES UNDER 50 FOR THE FORECAST AREA...SO NOT
EXPECTING TORNADOES TO BE A WIDESPREAD THREAT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DEVELOPING STORMS. HOWEVER...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR APPROACHING 35-40 KTS
ACROSS THE AREA IN COMBINATION WITH 1500 J/KG OF CAPE SUGGESTS A
LARGE HAIL THREAT. WITH DCAPE VALUES MOSTLY BETWEEN 400 AND 500
J/KG...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS FROM STORMS IS POSSIBLE...BUT
EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO PRIMARILY HAVE A LARGE
HAIL THREAT. STORMS WILL GET GOING BY MID AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH
THE EVENING.
CLOUD COVER WILL BE PRESENT LATE THIS EVENING DUE TO A STEADY STREAM
OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO FORM ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING DRIER AIR
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT TOMORROW WITH THE SHORTWAVE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH DRY
WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER TROUGH WITH A CUT OFF LOW
FEATURE MOVES INTO THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND BRINGS CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE SOME LOCATIONS WITH CAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 700 J/KG AND 0-6 BULK SHEAR APPROACHING 35 KTS...HOWEVER
FORECAST AREAS IN MODELS DO NOT NECESSARILY LINE UP.
THEREFORE...NOT EXPECTING A WIDE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL
EXIST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015
SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF JUST SOUTH
OF FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
THE CWA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND STALL SOUTH AND WEST OF
OUR CWA. SOUTHERLY THEN EASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING VERY GOOD MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO OUR CWA AS THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES EAST WITH
OVERRUNNING NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE WHERE ELEVATED
FRONT/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE. BETTER PRECIP
SIGNAL IS CURRENTLY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE CWA...WHERE I CONTINUED TREND
OF RAISING POPS. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE LIGHT PRECIP
PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO ADVECT SOUTH AND SUBSIDENCE BUILDS SOUTHWEST MONDAY.
IF CURRENT SIGNAL/TREND CONTINUE I COULD SEE RAISING POPS TO
CATEGORICAL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND TO LIKELY CATEGORY
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WHILE 40KM GUIDANCE SHOWS QPF AS FAR
EAST AS NORTON/GRAHAM THROUGH THESE PERIODS...PATTERN TENDS TO FAVOR
AREAS CLOSER TO FRONTAL ZONE/HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO...SO I
KEPT LOWERS POPS NORTHEAST/EAST. IN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
THICK STRATUS/LIKELY PRECIPITATION HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AND I
CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWER HIGHS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS
MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 40S IN SOME AREAS.
MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...THERE IS A SECONDARY H3 JET ROTATING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH...AND THIS COULD
BRING ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT SHOWERS....OTHERWISE LARGE SCALE
RIDGING WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND BACK TO THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
NEXT FRIDAY (80S) AS LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS. WHILE THERE ISN`T A
LOT OF AGREEMENT AT THIS RANGE THE PATTERN DOES SUPPORT POSSIBLE
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
IN COLORADO MOVING EAST INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA...SO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT IN PLACE FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015
KGLD...WEST-NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED
TO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS BY 15Z THEN NORTH NEAR
10KTS BY 19Z. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE EAST UNDER 10KTS IN
THE 21Z-23Z TIMEFRAME AND CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z BEFORE INCREASING
AND START TO GUST IN THE 20-25KT RANGE BY 04Z. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH THE ONLY CHANCE AT IFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 04Z AS SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER MOVES IN FROM THE
EAST. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AFTER 03Z AS WELL.
KMCK...NORTHWEST WIND UNDER 10KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO VEER
TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS BY 18Z THEN EAST AROUND
12KTS AROUND 03Z. AFTER 03Z WINDS INCREASE AND START TO GUST IN
THE 20-25KT RANGE FROM THE EAST. TOUGH FORECAST ON CIGS FROM TAF
ISSUANCE THROUGH 17Z THEN AGAIN AFTER 05Z. STRATUS AND IFR/VLIFR
CIGS JUST EAST OF THE TERMINAL AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS
THAT THIS AIRMASS REACHES OR NEARLY REACHES THE TERMINAL DURING
THE TIMELINES LISTED ABOVE. WILL GO WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK
AROUND 600` AT TAF ISSUANCE WITH A CEILING AT SIMILAR HEIGHTS
AROUND 10Z. THESE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 13Z BEFORE MVFR CIGS
DEVELOP FROM 14Z-17Z. AFTER 05Z IFR/MVFR CIGS MOVE BACK IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
229 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
ISSUED AN UPDATE TO FURTHER ADJUST THE POPS AND SKY COVER BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS. WENT A BIT SLOWER ON ERODING CLOUDS IN THE
SOUTH WITH THE NORTH REMAINING WITH CLOUDS BUT THIS WILL CREATE A
HEATING DIFFERENTIAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS. WITH THIS...EXPECTING SEVERE CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA AFTER 21Z AND MOST LIKELY FROM THE WEST. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT
LIKE THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY. HAVE UPDATED THE POPS TO SUGGEST THIS. WILL STILL KEEP
THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES IN PLACE AS WELL. AT THIS
TIME...WARMING CONTINUES IN THE SOUTH AND CONVECTION IN WESTERN KY
IS NEAR OR BEGINNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WITH THIS
DEVELOPMENT...WOULD EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE EAST WITH THE
BEST ENVIRONMENT CONVERGING OVER THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND SOUTH.
A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN SENT OUT AND NEW GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1130 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A SWATH OF SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. AT THIS
TIME...THE WARM FRONT IS DEVELOPING AND SLOWLY MOVING NORTH AND IS
POSITIONED JUST NORTH ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER. CLOUD COVER AT THIS
TIME IS QUITE EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH...SOME PEAKS OF
CLEARING ARE OCCURRING TO THE WEST AND A FEW PEAKS TO THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...ONGOING CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST SEEMS TO BE
KEEPING CLOUD COVER STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE TIMED A BIT OF CLEARING TO OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY BUT IF THE CLOUD COVER MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH
CONTINUES...SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE DRASTICALLY LIMITED INTO
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATER THIS EVENING...THE HRRR HINTS AT
AN MCS DEVELOPMENT AND MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA ALONG
WITH THE SURFACE LOW BY 00Z TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...THE EVENT MAY
BE TRANSITIONING INTO A HYDRO EVENT. HAVE UPDATED THE ZFP TO TIME
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING AND THE PROGRESSION OF
THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE DAY. IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING THAT THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WILL SAY ALOT ABOUT WHAT TRANSPIRES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 13 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
BLENDED EARLY MORNING OBS INTO THE FORECAST. NO SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES WERE MADE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE...WITH EVENTS JUST BEGINNING TO
UNFOLD. AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NE OVER
THE REGION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...IT IS BEHIND SCHEDULE AS BASED
ON THE 00Z MODELS...WITH A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER MS AND AL
POSSIBLY FOILING THE OUTCOME. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS IT
WILL STILL HAPPEN...BUT MAY BE MORE FOCUSED ON OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES.
ONCE THIS PASSES...IT WILL BE A WAITING GAME FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS OUR AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THERE WILL BE LARGE SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY PRESENT IN OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...WITH WEAKER
AND MORE ELEVATED INSTABILITY FURTHER NORTHEAST. SHEAR WILL BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. DRY MID
LEVEL AIR IS ALSO EXPECTED IN OUR SW. THIS WILL PRESENT A THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER OUR SW...WITH SUPER CELLS POSSIBLY
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS...AND A SECONDARY THREAT OF
TORNADOES. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN WITH TRAINING OF
CELLS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHERE THIS MAY SET UP IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS LIKELY WOULD NOT ARISE UNTIL THIS
EVENING...AND HAVE OPTED TO LET DAY SHIFT EXAMINE THE 12Z RUN
BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON A FFA.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EAST THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END ON
SUNDAY MORNING AND CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP DURING THE DAY FROM NW TO
SE AS DRY AIR MOVES IN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. THE PERIOD IS
SET TO BEGIN WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OUT OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PATTERN
IS THEN FORECAST TO CHANGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS BOTH
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER SYSTEMS MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND GULF COAST REGIONS. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...AND THEREFORE WOULD HAVE
TO GREATER INFLUENCE ON AREA WEATHER MID WEEK. AS IT STANDS...A
ROUGHLY 60 40 BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS WAS USED TO CREATE
THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BRING MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHWARD AND PHASE WITH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS LOW. THE GFS DOES DIFFER SLIGHTLY FROM THE
ECMWF MODEL DURING THIS PERIOD...AS ITS NORTHERN STREAM LOW PUSHES
ON EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND...AS OPPOSED TO PHASING WITH THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM...AS THE ECMWF IS DEPICTING. THAT BEING
SAID...THIS IS WHERE THE USUALLY MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTION WAS FAVORED. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE DIFFERING MODEL
SOLUTIONS...DECIDED TO STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS...WITH 40 BEING THE HIGH END DURING THE WET PERIOD. FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE DRY AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER
SYSTEM EXITS TO OUR EAST AND ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
AND THE FACT THAT THIS WEEKENDS TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL DUE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. WHAT
THIS AMOUNTS TO IS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STARTING OFF BEHIND THE
EIGHT BALL TO START THE WEEK TEMPERATURE WISE...MAKING IT
DIFFICULT FOR THINGS TO WARM UP AS MUCH AS NORMAL DUE TO THE SHORT
BREAK BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
THE SHOWERS THAT HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BUT IFR
AND BELOW CIGS AND VIS REMAIN AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE TAFS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AS WARM FRONT SLOWLY NUDGES
NORTH...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN THE SOUTH AS
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BELOW FEILD MINS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THUNDER NEAR
EACH STATION THROUGH 06Z. AFTERWARD...LOW CIGS AND VIS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
109 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Updated 930 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015
Latest guidance including the latest SPC Day 1 Outlook continues to
trend the severe threat slightly to the north. No big changes have
been made to the grids, but have tried to trend the pop forecast a
bit towards the latest hi-res model guidance. Also nudged the area
where severe storms are mentioned slightly further to the north. The
ongoing precipitation has not had any lightning associated with it
so far. However, think we could still see some isolated flashes
through the late morning hours.
Updated 621 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015
No major changes needed to the forecast this morning, as it is
largely on track. Still expecting rain showers to continue to
blossom over the region, especially along and north of I-64 this
morning. This is all in response to a low-level jet and isentropic
ascent veering into the region. May see a few rumbles of thunder
especially as we get into the late morning hours, but no severe
weather is expected through noon.
The 06Z NAM has come in further north with the warm frontal
placement late this afternoon, which would bring the I-64 corridor
more into play for severe potential. However, the latest runs of
the HRRR continue to show the warm front stalling south of I-64 and
very close to the current forecast position. Given the HRRR has a
decent handle on ongoing convection, and the support of the other
hi-res guidance in regards to expected frontal position this
afternoon, see no need to adjust things further north based on the
06Z NAM quite yet. Will continue to monitor trends through the
morning hours and especially the 12Z guidance suite.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015
...Severe Weather Likely This Afternoon and Evening...
Overview
========
The current synoptic setup features a split-flow regime across the
CONUS. The Ohio Valley will be affected by a PV anomaly currently
across eastern Kansas and western MO, which will push through the
region late this afternoon into tonight.
In response to the ejecting PV anomaly out of the southwest flow
aloft, a surface low has formed across portions of eastern KS. This
low will slide east today, but will begin to fill as the overall
system encounters confluent flow over the Ohio Valley. A very sharp
warm front associated with this low pressure system will develop
across the Ohio Valley today.
This Morning
============
With the ejecting wave, isentropic ascent has increased across the
region this morning. This has led to showers breaking out across
the Ohio Valley, and the radar should continue to blossom through
the morning hours as a low-level jet of 40-50 knots veers into the
region towards sunrise. Forecast soundings show limited elevated
instability, so severe weather is not expected. Just some showers
with a few embedded rumbles of thunder appears likely.
This Afternoon/Evening
======================
The placement of the aforementioned sharp warm front will be
absolutely critical to how far north the severe weather threat gets
this afternoon/evening. The 25/00Z guidance shifted this front
south just a bit from previous runs, which would take much of the
I-64 corridor out of the main severe risk. Will cautiously trend
the forecast towards this more southern solution given the support
on almost guidance members, but still am a bit weary this front
could end up surging further north, especially if there is less
showers/storm coverage this morning than expected (less convective
enhancement to the front). This warm front will be the main player
that we will continue to monitor through the day.
At this point, expect the front to align itself roughly along a line
from Owensboro, to north of Elizabethtown, over towards Lebanon
by late this afternoon. To the south of it, a warm and unstable
airmass is likely to materialize given temperatures rising to near
80 and dewpoints in the middle 60s. This low-level environment
coupled with very steep lapse rates aloft will support MLCAPEs
anywhere from 1500-3000 J/kg, with much of that CAPE residing within
the hail growth zone (-10 to -30C).
The evolution of the convection could be rather complex. There
seems to be a decent signal in the hi-res guidance that the strong
warm front may lead to convective initiation, which will likely be
initially discrete in nature. Given 0-6km shear well over 50 knots,
these will be supercellular, if they are to form. The aforementioned
instability coupled with deep-layer shear will lead to a large hail
threat, with golf ball to even baseball-sized hail not out of the
question in some of these storms. Bunker`s RM storm motion vectors
place the motion of these potential supercells almost parallel to
the warm front, which is worrisome because any storm that forms
along this front will have access to enhanced helicity, given the
backed surface winds. Therefore, think there is an enhanced tornado
threat right along this boundary wherever it happens to set up,
perhaps more of a threat than SPC is currently highlighting with
their 5% Tornado risk.
Further south (across far southern KY, near TN border), strong
mixing coupled with the fact that the surface low will be filling
will lead to more veered surface winds, which should cut down
somewhere on the effective SRH. However, with westerly low-level
jet expected to strengthen towards 26/00Z, hodographs will be
long/curved enough to support an isolated tornado threat early this
evening in areas south of the warm front. Coverage of these storms
not tied to the warm front will likely be rather isolated, given a
lack of convergence and the presence of a weak cap in the warm
sector.
By a bit later this evening, the actual surface low will push into
west-central KY. Near the triple point of this low, enhanced
convergence will likely lead to a more concentrated area of
convection, perhaps a mix of bowing segments and supercells which
will push into the I-65 corridor toward 02-04Z. By this time,
daytime instability should be beginning to wane, but still think
this second round will carry a severe threat of large hail, damaging
winds, and isolated tornadoes as it pushes southeast across
south-central KY.
Bust Potential
==============
There remains some potential bust factors with this setup. The
first and most obvious, is the morning convection. We will need
this to clear out and some sunshine to break out south of the warm
front this afternoon for us to destabilize. Given the general
guidance agreement, do have pretty high confidence this will occur
and we will become quite unstable across southern KY late this
afternoon.
The other potential bust factor will if discrete development will
occur late this afternoon/early evening. Warm fronts can be tricky
in initiating surface-based convection, so we could go through the
day not seeing much becoming sustained along the front. In
addition, the weak cap could hold through the rest of the warm
sector giving very little coverage of discrete convection until the
more concentrated line of storms approaches with the surface low
well after peak heating.
Summary
=======
While there is bust potential, have fairly high confidence in severe
weather this afternoon and evening. Think the main threats will be
hail and damaging winds, but an enhanced tornado threat will be
found right along the warm front. This is something we will
continue to monitor closely this afternoon. Even north of the warm
front in Lexington and Louisville, forecast soundings show quite a
bit of elevated instability above the stable boundary layer, so
severe hail will certainly be a possibility even in areas north of
the warm front.
.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015
Overall tranquil weather pattern expected for much of the extended
forecast period. Average flow aloft pattern will be somewhat blocky
and amplified with troughs over the northeastern and western U.S.
and ridging in the central U.S. However, an mid-level low will
meander east over the southern Plains to the south of the ridge.
Models suggest that this system will move east into the Gulf Coast
states and weaken mid to late next week, and not phase with a
northern stream shortwave rotating southeast over the upper Ohio
Valley. As a result, dry weather should prevail through the period.
With cool surface high pressure to the north of our area early in
the week, temperatures will be below normal with highs in the upper
50s to mid 60s Monday afternoon, low-mid 60s Tuesday, and mid-upper
60s Wednesday. Expect lows in the lower 40s in many areas Tuesday
morning (possibly upper 30s in valleys), and 40s Wednesday morning.
For late week into next weekend, the ridge aloft should slide east
resulting in continued dry weather and a moderating trend, with
afternoon highs expected in the 70s Friday and Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 107 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015
Ceilings lowered to IFR at SDF and LEX this morning as they
remain north of the warm front. This front should stay to the south
of both these terminals. Therefore do not see much improvement in
ceilings, except for perhaps a few hours late this afternoon when
storms are expected to develop. These storms will be hit and miss,
but any that do develop could produce hail. The storms will weaken
after sunset with some showers lingering into the overnight hours in
the wake of a low pressure system crossing the area. IFR ceilings
are expected to persist through much of the night, beginning to lift
around dawn. Winds will shift to northerly to northeasterly as the
low moves through.
BWG is south of the warm front. Ceilings through the afternoon will
likely bounce back and forth between MVFR and VFR as clouds scatter
out from time to time. Strong to possibly severe storms will develop
late this afternoon in the vicinity of BWG. These will move out by
mid to late evening as a cold front moves through. IFR ceilings are
expected to develop in the wake of the front and persist into the
morning hours tomorrow.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........EER/KJD
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......EER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1130 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A SWATH OF SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. AT THIS
TIME...THE WARM FRONT IS DEVELOPING AND SLOWLY MOVING NORTH AND IS
POSITIONED JUST NORTH ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER. CLOUD COVER AT THIS
TIME IS QUITE EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH...SOME PEAKS OF
CLEARING ARE OCCURRING TO THE WEST AND A FEW PEAKS TO THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...ONGOING CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST SEEMS TO BE
KEEPING CLOUD COVER STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE TIMED A BIT OF CLEARING TO OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY BUT IF THE CLOUD COVER MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH
CONTINUES...SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE DRASTICALLY LIMITED INTO
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATER THIS EVENING...THE HRRR HINTS AT
AN MCS DEVELOPMENT AND MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA ALONG
WITH THE SURFACE LOW BY 00Z TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...THE EVENT MAY
BE TRANSITIONING INTO A HYDRO EVENT. HAVE UPDATED THE ZFP TO TIME
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING AND THE PROGRESSION OF
THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE DAY. IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING THAT THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WILL SAY ALOT ABOUT WHAT TRANSPIRES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 13 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
BLENDED EARLY MORNING OBS INTO THE FORECAST. NO SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES WERE MADE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE...WITH EVENTS JUST BEGINNING TO
UNFOLD. AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NE OVER
THE REGION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...IT IS BEHIND SCHEDULE AS BASED
ON THE 00Z MODELS...WITH A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER MS AND AL
POSSIBLY FOILING THE OUTCOME. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS IT
WILL STILL HAPPEN...BUT MAY BE MORE FOCUSED ON OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES.
ONCE THIS PASSES...IT WILL BE A WAITING GAME FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS OUR AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THERE WILL BE LARGE SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY PRESENT IN OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...WITH WEAKER
AND MORE ELEVATED INSTABILITY FURTHER NORTHEAST. SHEAR WILL BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. DRY MID
LEVEL AIR IS ALSO EXPECTED IN OUR SW. THIS WILL PRESENT A THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER OUR SW...WITH SUPER CELLS POSSIBLY
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS...AND A SECONDARY THREAT OF
TORNADOES. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN WITH TRAINING OF
CELLS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHERE THIS MAY SET UP IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS LIKELY WOULD NOT ARISE UNTIL THIS
EVENING...AND HAVE OPTED TO LET DAY SHIFT EXAMINE THE 12Z RUN
BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON A FFA.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EAST THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END ON
SUNDAY MORNING AND CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP DURING THE DAY FROM NW TO
SE AS DRY AIR MOVES IN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. THE PERIOD IS
SET TO BEGIN WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OUT OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PATTERN
IS THEN FORECAST TO CHANGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS BOTH
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER SYSTEMS MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND GULF COAST REGIONS. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...AND THEREFORE WOULD HAVE
TO GREATER INFLUENCE ON AREA WEATHER MID WEEK. AS IT STANDS...A
ROUGHLY 60 40 BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS WAS USED TO CREATE
THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BRING MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHWARD AND PHASE WITH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS LOW. THE GFS DOES DIFFER SLIGHTLY FROM THE
ECMWF MODEL DURING THIS PERIOD...AS ITS NORTHERN STREAM LOW PUSHES
ON EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND...AS OPPOSED TO PHASING WITH THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM...AS THE ECMWF IS DEPICTING. THAT BEING
SAID...THIS IS WHERE THE USUALLY MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTION WAS FAVORED. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE DIFFERING MODEL
SOLUTIONS...DECIDED TO STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS...WITH 40 BEING THE HIGH END DURING THE WET PERIOD. FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE DRY AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER
SYSTEM EXITS TO OUR EAST AND ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
AND THE FACT THAT THIS WEEKENDS TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL DUE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. WHAT
THIS AMOUNTS TO IS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STARTING OFF BEHIND THE
EIGHT BALL TO START THE WEEK TEMPERATURE WISE...MAKING IT
DIFFICULT FOR THINGS TO WARM UP AS MUCH AS NORMAL DUE TO THE SHORT
BREAK BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 813 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
ALTHOUGH SHOWERS WERE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...VFR CONDITIONS
WERE STILL PRESENT AT MOST LOCATIONS AT TAF ISSUANCE. THE
EXCEPTION WAS IN THE FAR SW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND KEKQ
AND KSME...WHERE MVFR CEILINGS HAD DEVELOPED. THE MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SW TO NE THIS MORNING...WITH SOME
IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...LARGELY MVFR CAN BE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST...EXCEPT FOR IFR FROM AROUND THE MOUNTAIN
PARKWAY NORTHWARD. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FOR A TIME
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING. SOME
OF THESE MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL
SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...AND PRECIPITATION WILL START
TO TAPER OFF LATE. HOWEVER...MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
932 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015
...Forecast Update...
Updated 930 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015
Latest guidance including the latest SPC Day 1 Outlook continues to
trend the severe threat slightly to the north. No big changes have
been made to the grids, but have tried to trend the pop forecast a
bit towards the latest hi-res model guidance. Also nudged the area
where severe storms are mentioned slightly further to the north. The
ongoing precipitation has not had any lightning associated with it
so far. However, think we could still see some isolated flashes
through the late morning hours.
Updated 621 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015
No major changes needed to the forecast this morning, as it is
largely on track. Still expecting rain showers to continue to
blossom over the region, especially along and north of I-64 this
morning. This is all in response to a low-level jet and isentropic
ascent veering into the region. May see a few rumbles of thunder
especially as we get into the late morning hours, but no severe
weather is expected through noon.
The 06Z NAM has come in further north with the warm frontal
placement late this afternoon, which would bring the I-64 corridor
more into play for severe potential. However, the latest runs of
the HRRR continue to show the warm front stalling south of I-64 and
very close to the current forecast position. Given the HRRR has a
decent handle on ongoing convection, and the support of the other
hi-res guidance in regards to expected frontal position this
afternoon, see no need to adjust things further north based on the
06Z NAM quite yet. Will continue to monitor trends through the
morning hours and especially the 12Z guidance suite.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015
...Severe Weather Likely This Afternoon and Evening...
Overview
========
The current synoptic setup features a split-flow regime across the
CONUS. The Ohio Valley will be affected by a PV anomaly currently
across eastern Kansas and western MO, which will push through the
region late this afternoon into tonight.
In response to the ejecting PV anomaly out of the southwest flow
aloft, a surface low has formed across portions of eastern KS. This
low will slide east today, but will begin to fill as the overall
system encounters confluent flow over the Ohio Valley. A very sharp
warm front associated with this low pressure system will develop
across the Ohio Valley today.
This Morning
============
With the ejecting wave, isentropic ascent has increased across the
region this morning. This has led to showers breaking out across
the Ohio Valley, and the radar should continue to blossom through
the morning hours as a low-level jet of 40-50 knots veers into the
region towards sunrise. Forecast soundings show limited elevated
instability, so severe weather is not expected. Just some showers
with a few embedded rumbles of thunder appears likely.
This Afternoon/Evening
======================
The placement of the aforementioned sharp warm front will be
absolutely critical to how far north the severe weather threat gets
this afternoon/evening. The 25/00Z guidance shifted this front
south just a bit from previous runs, which would take much of the
I-64 corridor out of the main severe risk. Will cautiously trend
the forecast towards this more southern solution given the support
on almost guidance members, but still am a bit weary this front
could end up surging further north, especially if there is less
showers/storm coverage this morning than expected (less convective
enhancement to the front). This warm front will be the main player
that we will continue to monitor through the day.
At this point, expect the front to align itself roughly along a line
from Owensboro, to north of Elizabethtown, over towards Lebanon
by late this afternoon. To the south of it, a warm and unstable
airmass is likely to materialize given temperatures rising to near
80 and dewpoints in the middle 60s. This low-level environment
coupled with very steep lapse rates aloft will support MLCAPEs
anywhere from 1500-3000 J/kg, with much of that CAPE residing within
the hail growth zone (-10 to -30C).
The evolution of the convection could be rather complex. There
seems to be a decent signal in the hi-res guidance that the strong
warm front may lead to convective initiation, which will likely be
initially discrete in nature. Given 0-6km shear well over 50 knots,
these will be supercellular, if they are to form. The aforementioned
instability coupled with deep-layer shear will lead to a large hail
threat, with golf ball to even baseball-sized hail not out of the
question in some of these storms. Bunker`s RM storm motion vectors
place the motion of these potential supercells almost parallel to
the warm front, which is worrisome because any storm that forms
along this front will have access to enhanced helicity, given the
backed surface winds. Therefore, think there is an enhanced tornado
threat right along this boundary wherever it happens to set up,
perhaps more of a threat than SPC is currently highlighting with
their 5% Tornado risk.
Further south (across far southern KY, near TN border), strong
mixing coupled with the fact that the surface low will be filling
will lead to more veered surface winds, which should cut down
somewhere on the effective SRH. However, with westerly low-level
jet expected to strengthen towards 26/00Z, hodographs will be
long/curved enough to support an isolated tornado threat early this
evening in areas south of the warm front. Coverage of these storms
not tied to the warm front will likely be rather isolated, given a
lack of convergence and the presence of a weak cap in the warm
sector.
By a bit later this evening, the actual surface low will push into
west-central KY. Near the triple point of this low, enhanced
convergence will likely lead to a more concentrated area of
convection, perhaps a mix of bowing segments and supercells which
will push into the I-65 corridor toward 02-04Z. By this time,
daytime instability should be beginning to wane, but still think
this second round will carry a severe threat of large hail, damaging
winds, and isolated tornadoes as it pushes southeast across
south-central KY.
Bust Potential
==============
There remains some potential bust factors with this setup. The
first and most obvious, is the morning convection. We will need
this to clear out and some sunshine to break out south of the warm
front this afternoon for us to destabilize. Given the general
guidance agreement, do have pretty high confidence this will occur
and we will become quite unstable across southern KY late this
afternoon.
The other potential bust factor will if discrete development will
occur late this afternoon/early evening. Warm fronts can be tricky
in initiating surface-based convection, so we could go through the
day not seeing much becoming sustained along the front. In
addition, the weak cap could hold through the rest of the warm
sector giving very little coverage of discrete convection until the
more concentrated line of storms approaches with the surface low
well after peak heating.
Summary
=======
While there is bust potential, have fairly high confidence in severe
weather this afternoon and evening. Think the main threats will be
hail and damaging winds, but an enhanced tornado threat will be
found right along the warm front. This is something we will
continue to monitor closely this afternoon. Even north of the warm
front in Lexington and Louisville, forecast soundings show quite a
bit of elevated instability above the stable boundary layer, so
severe hail will certainly be a possibility even in areas north of
the warm front.
.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015
Cool and mostly dry conditions are expected from Sunday most of the
way through next week. Upper pattern looks fairly blocky as the main
player is an eastern CONUS trof that keeps getting reinforced.
Around mid-week a bowling-ball closed low in the southern stream
will push across the Deep South, with precip chances in the Ohio
Valley Wednesday and Wednesday night. Timing is still a bit
uncertain, and the ECMWF is more bullish in phasing this system with
a northern stream disturbance, so will just paint low-end chance
POPs for Wednesday and Wednesday night. Temps will run below climo
for most of this period.
Toward the end of the week, upper ridging over the Plains starts to
build into the Ohio Valley. Look for dry weather and exceedingly
pleasant temps with highs in the 70s and lows either side of 50 just
in time for the first weekend in May.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 651 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015
Deteriorating conditions will push in through the TAF period, as an
area of low pressure approaches from the west. Showers will
continue to expand in coverage this morning, bringing MVFR vsbys at
cigs at times to all terminals. Will leave in VCTS wording given
some marginal elevated instability, but think any thunderstorm
activity will be rather isolated through the morning hours.
A warm front will sharpen and lift northeast into the area today.
Just north of this front, a period of IFR cigs can be expected at
all sites. The latest guidance suite continues to suggest this
front will likely stall just to the south of KSDF and KLEX, meaning
low cigs may persist in these locations through much of the day,
especially at KLEX. KBWG will likely scour out this afternoon and
mix down SSW wind gusts around 25 knots. Late this afternoon into
this evening, severe thunderstorms are expected to break out over
central KY, mainly affecting KBWG. However, there is enough
elevated instability to warrant VCTS wording at KSDF and KLEX as
well with this activity. Winds will turn more northerly late in the
TAF period as the area of low pressure pushes to the southeast.
12Z TAF Forecaster Confidence
=============================
Ceilings : Medium
Visibilities: Medium
Winds : Low at KSDF and KLEX
=============================
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........EER/KJD
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......KJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
813 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 13 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
BLENDED EARLY MORNING OBS INTO THE FORECAST. NO SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES WERE MADE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE...WITH EVENTS JUST BEGINNING TO
UNFOLD. AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NE OVER
THE REGION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...IT IS BEHIND SCHEDULE AS BASED
ON THE 00Z MODELS...WITH A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER MS AND AL
POSSIBLY FOILING THE OUTCOME. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS IT
WILL STILL HAPPEN...BUT MAY BE MORE FOCUSED ON OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES.
ONCE THIS PASSES...IT WILL BE A WAITING GAME FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS OUR AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THERE WILL BE LARGE SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY PRESENT IN OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...WITH WEAKER
AND MORE ELEVATED INSTABILITY FURTHER NORTHEAST. SHEAR WILL BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. DRY MID
LEVEL AIR IS ALSO EXPECTED IN OUR SW. THIS WILL PRESENT A THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER OUR SW...WITH SUPER CELLS POSSIBLY
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS...AND A SECONDARY THREAT OF
TORNADOES. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN WITH TRAINING OF
CELLS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHERE THIS MAY SET UP IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS LIKELY WOULD NOT ARISE UNTIL THIS
EVENING...AND HAVE OPTED TO LET DAY SHIFT EXAMINE THE 12Z RUN
BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON A FFA.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EAST THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END ON
SUNDAY MORNING AND CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP DURING THE DAY FROM NW TO
SE AS DRY AIR MOVES IN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. THE PERIOD IS
SET TO BEGIN WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OUT OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PATTERN
IS THEN FORECAST TO CHANGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS BOTH
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER SYSTEMS MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND GULF COAST REGIONS. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...AND THEREFORE WOULD HAVE
TO GREATER INFLUENCE ON AREA WEATHER MID WEEK. AS IT STANDS...A
ROUGHLY 60 40 BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS WAS USED TO CREATE
THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BRING MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHWARD AND PHASE WITH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS LOW. THE GFS DOES DIFFER SLIGHTLY FROM THE
ECMWF MODEL DURING THIS PERIOD...AS ITS NORTHERN STREAM LOW PUSHES
ON EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND...AS OPPOSED TO PHASING WITH THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM...AS THE ECMWF IS DEPICTING. THAT BEING
SAID...THIS IS WHERE THE USUALLY MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTION WAS FAVORED. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE DIFFERING MODEL
SOLUTIONS...DECIDED TO STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS...WITH 40 BEING THE HIGH END DURING THE WET PERIOD. FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE DRY AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER
SYSTEM EXITS TO OUR EAST AND ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
AND THE FACT THAT THIS WEEKENDS TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL DUE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. WHAT
THIS AMOUNTS TO IS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STARTING OFF BEHIND THE
EIGHT BALL TO START THE WEEK TEMPERATURE WISE...MAKING IT
DIFFICULT FOR THINGS TO WARM UP AS MUCH AS NORMAL DUE TO THE SHORT
BREAK BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 813 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
ALTHOUGH SHOWERS WERE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...VFR CONDITIONS
WERE STILL PRESENT AT MOST LOCATIONS AT TAF ISSUANCE. THE
EXCEPTION WAS IN THE FAR SW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND KEKQ
AND KSME...WHERE MVFR CEILINGS HAD DEVELOPED. THE MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SW TO NE THIS MORNING...WITH SOME
IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...LARGELY MVFR CAN BE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST...EXCEPT FOR IFR FROM AROUND THE MOUNTAIN
PARKWAY NORTHWARD. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FOR A TIME
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING. SOME
OF THESE MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL
SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...AND PRECIPITATION WILL START
TO TAPER OFF LATE. HOWEVER...MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
652 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Updated 621 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015
No major changes needed to the forecast this morning, as it is
largely on track. Still expecting rain showers to continue to
blossom over the region, especially along and north of I-64 this
morning. This is all in response to a low-level jet and isentropic
ascent veering into the region. May see a few rumbles of thunder
especially as we get into the late morning hours, but no severe
weather is expected through noon.
The 06Z NAM has come in further north with the warm frontal
placement late this afternoon, which would bring the I-64 corridor
more into play for severe potential. However, the latest runs of
the HRRR continue to show the warm front stalling south of I-64 and
very close to the current forecast position. Given the HRRR has a
decent handle on ongoing convection, and the support of the other
hi-res guidance in regards to expected frontal position this
afternoon, see no need to adjust things further north based on the
06Z NAM quite yet. Will continue to monitor trends through the
morning hours and especially the 12Z guidance suite.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015
...Severe Weather Likely This Afternoon and Evening...
Overview
========
The current synoptic setup features a split-flow regime across the
CONUS. The Ohio Valley will be affected by a PV anomaly currently
across eastern Kansas and western MO, which will push through the
region late this afternoon into tonight.
In response to the ejecting PV anomaly out of the southwest flow
aloft, a surface low has formed across portions of eastern KS. This
low will slide east today, but will begin to fill as the overall
system encounters confluent flow over the Ohio Valley. A very sharp
warm front associated with this low pressure system will develop
across the Ohio Valley today.
This Morning
============
With the ejecting wave, isentropic ascent has increased across the
region this morning. This has led to showers breaking out across
the Ohio Valley, and the radar should continue to blossom through
the morning hours as a low-level jet of 40-50 knots veers into the
region towards sunrise. Forecast soundings show limited elevated
instability, so severe weather is not expected. Just some showers
with a few embedded rumbles of thunder appears likely.
This Afternoon/Evening
======================
The placement of the aforementioned sharp warm front will be
absolutely critical to how far north the severe weather threat gets
this afternoon/evening. The 25/00Z guidance shifted this front
south just a bit from previous runs, which would take much of the
I-64 corridor out of the main severe risk. Will cautiously trend
the forecast towards this more southern solution given the support
on almost guidance members, but still am a bit weary this front
could end up surging further north, especially if there is less
showers/storm coverage this morning than expected (less convective
enhancement to the front). This warm front will be the main player
that we will continue to monitor through the day.
At this point, expect the front to align itself roughly along a line
from Owensboro, to north of Elizabethtown, over towards Lebanon
by late this afternoon. To the south of it, a warm and unstable
airmass is likely to materialize given temperatures rising to near
80 and dewpoints in the middle 60s. This low-level environment
coupled with very steep lapse rates aloft will support MLCAPEs
anywhere from 1500-3000 J/kg, with much of that CAPE residing within
the hail growth zone (-10 to -30C).
The evolution of the convection could be rather complex. There
seems to be a decent signal in the hi-res guidance that the strong
warm front may lead to convective initiation, which will likely be
initially discrete in nature. Given 0-6km shear well over 50 knots,
these will be supercellular, if they are to form. The aforementioned
instability coupled with deep-layer shear will lead to a large hail
threat, with golf ball to even baseball-sized hail not out of the
question in some of these storms. Bunker`s RM storm motion vectors
place the motion of these potential supercells almost parallel to
the warm front, which is worrisome because any storm that forms
along this front will have access to enhanced helicity, given the
backed surface winds. Therefore, think there is an enhanced tornado
threat right along this boundary wherever it happens to set up,
perhaps more of a threat than SPC is currently highlighting with
their 5% Tornado risk.
Further south (across far southern KY, near TN border), strong
mixing coupled with the fact that the surface low will be filling
will lead to more veered surface winds, which should cut down
somewhere on the effective SRH. However, with westerly low-level
jet expected to strengthen towards 26/00Z, hodographs will be
long/curved enough to support an isolated tornado threat early this
evening in areas south of the warm front. Coverage of these storms
not tied to the warm front will likely be rather isolated, given a
lack of convergence and the presence of a weak cap in the warm
sector.
By a bit later this evening, the actual surface low will push into
west-central KY. Near the triple point of this low, enhanced
convergence will likely lead to a more concentrated area of
convection, perhaps a mix of bowing segments and supercells which
will push into the I-65 corridor toward 02-04Z. By this time,
daytime instability should be beginning to wane, but still think
this second round will carry a severe threat of large hail, damaging
winds, and isolated tornadoes as it pushes southeast across
south-central KY.
Bust Potential
==============
There remains some potential bust factors with this setup. The
first and most obvious, is the morning convection. We will need
this to clear out and some sunshine to break out south of the warm
front this afternoon for us to destabilize. Given the general
guidance agreement, do have pretty high confidence this will occur
and we will become quite unstable across southern KY late this
afternoon.
The other potential bust factor will if discrete development will
occur late this afternoon/early evening. Warm fronts can be tricky
in initiating surface-based convection, so we could go through the
day not seeing much becoming sustained along the front. In
addition, the weak cap could hold through the rest of the warm
sector giving very little coverage of discrete convection until the
more concentrated line of storms approaches with the surface low
well after peak heating.
Summary
=======
While there is bust potential, have fairly high confidence in severe
weather this afternoon and evening. Think the main threats will be
hail and damaging winds, but an enhanced tornado threat will be
found right along the warm front. This is something we will
continue to monitor closely this afternoon. Even north of the warm
front in Lexington and Louisville, forecast soundings show quite a
bit of elevated instability above the stable boundary layer, so
severe hail will certainly be a possibility even in areas north of
the warm front.
.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015
Cool and mostly dry conditions are expected from Sunday most of the
way through next week. Upper pattern looks fairly blocky as the main
player is an eastern CONUS trof that keeps getting reinforced.
Around mid-week a bowling-ball closed low in the southern stream
will push across the Deep South, with precip chances in the Ohio
Valley Wednesday and Wednesday night. Timing is still a bit
uncertain, and the ECMWF is more bullish in phasing this system with
a northern stream disturbance, so will just paint low-end chance
POPs for Wednesday and Wednesday night. Temps will run below climo
for most of this period.
Toward the end of the week, upper ridging over the Plains starts to
build into the Ohio Valley. Look for dry weather and exceedingly
pleasant temps with highs in the 70s and lows either side of 50 just
in time for the first weekend in May.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 651 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015
Deteriorating conditions will push in through the TAF period, as an
area of low pressure approaches from the west. Showers will
continue to expand in coverage this morning, bringing MVFR vsbys at
cigs at times to all terminals. Will leave in VCTS wording given
some marginal elevated instability, but think any thunderstorm
activity will be rather isolated through the morning hours.
A warm front will sharpen and lift northeast into the area today.
Just north of this front, a period of IFR cigs can be expected at
all sites. The latest guidance suite continues to suggest this
front will likely stall just to the south of KSDF and KLEX, meaning
low cigs may persist in these locations through much of the day,
especially at KLEX. KBWG will likely scour out this afternoon and
mix down SSW wind gusts around 25 knots. Late this afternoon into
this evening, severe thunderstorms are expected to break out over
central KY, mainly affecting KBWG. However, there is enough
elevated instability to warrant VCTS wording at KSDF and KLEX as
well with this activity. Winds will turn more northerly late in the
TAF period as the area of low pressure pushes to the southeast.
12Z TAF Forecaster Confidence
=============================
Ceilings : Medium
Visibilities: Medium
Winds : Low at KSDF and KLEX
=============================
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........KJD
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......KJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
623 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015
...Forecast Update...
Updated 621 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015
No major changes needed to the forecast this morning, as it is
largely on track. Still expecting rain showers to continue to
blossom over the region, especially along and north of I-64 this
morning. This is all in response to a low-level jet and isentropic
ascent veering into the region. May see a few rumbles of thunder
especially as we get into the late morning hours, but no severe
weather is expected through noon.
The 06Z NAM has come in further north with the warm frontal
placement late this afternoon, which would bring the I-64 corridor
more into play for severe potential. However, the latest runs of
the HRRR continue to show the warm front stalling south of I-64 and
very close to the current forecast position. Given the HRRR has a
decent handle on ongoing convection, and the support of the other
hi-res guidance in regards to expected frontal position this
afternoon, see no need to adjust things further north based on the
06Z NAM quite yet. Will continue to monitor trends through the
morning hours and especially the 12Z guidance suite.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015
...Severe Weather Likely This Afternoon and Evening...
Overview
========
The current synoptic setup features a split-flow regime across the
CONUS. The Ohio Valley will be affected by a PV anomaly currently
across eastern Kansas and western MO, which will push through the
region late this afternoon into tonight.
In response to the ejecting PV anomaly out of the southwest flow
aloft, a surface low has formed across portions of eastern KS. This
low will slide east today, but will begin to fill as the overall
system encounters confluent flow over the Ohio Valley. A very sharp
warm front associated with this low pressure system will develop
across the Ohio Valley today.
This Morning
============
With the ejecting wave, isentropic ascent has increased across the
region this morning. This has led to showers breaking out across
the Ohio Valley, and the radar should continue to blossom through
the morning hours as a low-level jet of 40-50 knots veers into the
region towards sunrise. Forecast soundings show limited elevated
instability, so severe weather is not expected. Just some showers
with a few embedded rumbles of thunder appears likely.
This Afternoon/Evening
======================
The placement of the aforementioned sharp warm front will be
absolutely critical to how far north the severe weather threat gets
this afternoon/evening. The 25/00Z guidance shifted this front
south just a bit from previous runs, which would take much of the
I-64 corridor out of the main severe risk. Will cautiously trend
the forecast towards this more southern solution given the support
on almost guidance members, but still am a bit weary this front
could end up surging further north, especially if there is less
showers/storm coverage this morning than expected (less convective
enhancement to the front). This warm front will be the main player
that we will continue to monitor through the day.
At this point, expect the front to align itself roughly along a line
from Owensboro, to north of Elizabethtown, over towards Lebanon
by late this afternoon. To the south of it, a warm and unstable
airmass is likely to materialize given temperatures rising to near
80 and dewpoints in the middle 60s. This low-level environment
coupled with very steep lapse rates aloft will support MLCAPEs
anywhere from 1500-3000 J/kg, with much of that CAPE residing within
the hail growth zone (-10 to -30C).
The evolution of the convection could be rather complex. There
seems to be a decent signal in the hi-res guidance that the strong
warm front may lead to convective initiation, which will likely be
initially discrete in nature. Given 0-6km shear well over 50 knots,
these will be supercellular, if they are to form. The aforementioned
instability coupled with deep-layer shear will lead to a large hail
threat, with golf ball to even baseball-sized hail not out of the
question in some of these storms. Bunker`s RM storm motion vectors
place the motion of these potential supercells almost parallel to
the warm front, which is worrisome because any storm that forms
along this front will have access to enhanced helicity, given the
backed surface winds. Therefore, think there is an enhanced tornado
threat right along this boundary wherever it happens to set up,
perhaps more of a threat than SPC is currently highlighting with
their 5% Tornado risk.
Further south (across far southern KY, near TN border), strong
mixing coupled with the fact that the surface low will be filling
will lead to more veered surface winds, which should cut down
somewhere on the effective SRH. However, with westerly low-level
jet expected to strengthen towards 26/00Z, hodographs will be
long/curved enough to support an isolated tornado threat early this
evening in areas south of the warm front. Coverage of these storms
not tied to the warm front will likely be rather isolated, given a
lack of convergence and the presence of a weak cap in the warm
sector.
By a bit later this evening, the actual surface low will push into
west-central KY. Near the triple point of this low, enhanced
convergence will likely lead to a more concentrated area of
convection, perhaps a mix of bowing segments and supercells which
will push into the I-65 corridor toward 02-04Z. By this time,
daytime instability should be beginning to wane, but still think
this second round will carry a severe threat of large hail, damaging
winds, and isolated tornadoes as it pushes southeast across
south-central KY.
Bust Potential
==============
There remains some potential bust factors with this setup. The
first and most obvious, is the morning convection. We will need
this to clear out and some sunshine to break out south of the warm
front this afternoon for us to destabilize. Given the general
guidance agreement, do have pretty high confidence this will occur
and we will become quite unstable across southern KY late this
afternoon.
The other potential bust factor will if discrete development will
occur late this afternoon/early evening. Warm fronts can be tricky
in initiating surface-based convection, so we could go through the
day not seeing much becoming sustained along the front. In
addition, the weak cap could hold through the rest of the warm
sector giving very little coverage of discrete convection until the
more concentrated line of storms approaches with the surface low
well after peak heating.
Summary
=======
While there is bust potential, have fairly high confidence in severe
weather this afternoon and evening. Think the main threats will be
hail and damaging winds, but an enhanced tornado threat will be
found right along the warm front. This is something we will
continue to monitor closely this afternoon. Even north of the warm
front in Lexington and Louisville, forecast soundings show quite a
bit of elevated instability above the stable boundary layer, so
severe hail will certainly be a possibility even in areas north of
the warm front.
.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015
Cool and mostly dry conditions are expected from Sunday most of the
way through next week. Upper pattern looks fairly blocky as the main
player is an eastern CONUS trof that keeps getting reinforced.
Around mid-week a bowling-ball closed low in the southern stream
will push across the Deep South, with precip chances in the Ohio
Valley Wednesday and Wednesday night. Timing is still a bit
uncertain, and the ECMWF is more bullish in phasing this system with
a northern stream disturbance, so will just paint low-end chance
POPs for Wednesday and Wednesday night. Temps will run below climo
for most of this period.
Toward the end of the week, upper ridging over the Plains starts to
build into the Ohio Valley. Look for dry weather and exceedingly
pleasant temps with highs in the 70s and lows either side of 50 just
in time for the first weekend in May.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 118 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015
Deteriorating conditions will push in through the TAF period, as an
area of low pressure approaches from the west. Showers will
continue to expand in coverage early this morning, bringing MVFR
vsbys at cigs at times to all terminals. Will leave in VCTS wording
given some marginal elevated instability, but think any thunderstorm
activity will be rather isolated. Winds will be out of east at 5-10
knots through the remainder of the overnight period.
A warm front, now located over MO/AR will lift northeast through the
morning hours. Just north of this front, a period of IFR cigs can
be expected at all sites. In fact, the latest guidance suite
suggests this front will likely stall to the south of KSDF and KLEX,
meaning low cigs may persist in these locations through much of the
day. Will trend the forecast toward the pessimistic side to account
for this trend. KBWG will likely scour out this afternoon and mix
down SSW wind gusts around 25 knots. Late this afternoon into this
evening, severe thunderstorms are expected to break out over central
KY, mainly affecting KBWG. However, there is enough elevated
instability to warrant VCTS wording at KSDF and KLEX as well with
this activity. Winds will turn more northerly late in the TAF
period as the area of low pressure pushes to the southeast.
06Z TAF Forecaster Confidence
=============================
Ceilings : Medium
Visibilities: Medium
Winds : Medium
=============================
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........KJD
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......KJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
411 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE...WITH EVENTS JUST BEGINNING TO
UNFOLD. AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NE OVER
THE REGION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...IT IS BEHIND SCHEDULE AS BASED
ON THE 00Z MODELS...WITH A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER MS AND AL
POSSIBLY FOILING THE OUTCOME. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS IT
WILL STILL HAPPEN...BUT MAY BE MORE FOCUSED ON OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES.
ONCE THIS PASSES...IT WILL BE A WAITING GAME FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS OUR AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THERE WILL BE LARGE SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY PRESENT IN OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...WITH WEAKER
AND MORE ELEVATED INSTABILITY FURTHER NORTHEAST. SHEAR WILL BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. DRY MID
LEVEL AIR IS ALSO EXPECTED IN OUR SW. THIS WILL PRESENT A THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER OUR SW...WITH SUPER CELLS POSSIBLY
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS...AND A SECONDARY THREAT OF
TORNADOES. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN WITH TRAINING OF
CELLS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHERE THIS MAY SET UP IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS LIKELY WOULD NOT ARISE UNTIL THIS
EVENING...AND HAVE OPTED TO LET DAY SHIFT EXAMINE THE 12Z RUN
BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON A FFA.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EAST THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END ON
SUNDAY MORNING AND CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP DURING THE DAY FROM NW TO
SE AS DRY AIR MOVES IN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. THE PERIOD IS
SET TO BEGIN WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OUT OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PATTERN
IS THEN FORECAST TO CHANGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS BOTH
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER SYSTEMS MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND GULF COAST REGIONS. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...AND THEREFORE WOULD HAVE
TO GREATER INFLUENCE ON AREA WEATHER MID WEEK. AS IT STANDS...A
ROUGHLY 60 40 BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS WAS USED TO CREATE
THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BRING MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHWARD AND PHASE WITH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS LOW. THE GFS DOES DIFFER SLIGHTLY FROM THE
ECMWF MODEL DURING THIS PERIOD...AS ITS NORTHERN STREAM LOW PUSHES
ON EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND...AS OPPOSED TO PHASING WITH THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM...AS THE ECMWF IS DEPICTING. THAT BEING
SAID...THIS IS WHERE THE USUALLY MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTION WAS FAVORED. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE DIFFERING MODEL
SOLUTIONS...DECIDED TO STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS...WITH 40 BEING THE HIGH END DURING THE WET PERIOD. FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE DRY AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER
SYSTEM EXITS TO OUR EAST AND ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
AND THE FACT THAT THIS WEEKENDS TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL DUE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. WHAT
THIS AMOUNTS TO IS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STARTING OFF BEHIND THE
EIGHT BALL TO START THE WEEK TEMPERATURE WISE...MAKING IT
DIFFICULT FOR THINGS TO WARM UP AS MUCH AS NORMAL DUE TO THE SHORT
BREAK BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT AT TAF ISSUANCE...BUT WILL DEGRADE TO
MVFR FROM SW TO NE BETWEEN ABOUT 06Z AND 14Z AS RAIN DEVELOPS. IFR
IS ALSO EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE REPLACED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEY WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE IN THE DAY
AND THIS EVENING. SOME LOCATIONS MAY DESCEND BACK TO IFR WITH THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
400 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE...WITH EVENTS JUST BEGINNING TO
UNFOLD. AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NE OVER
THE REGION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...IT IS BEHIND SCHEDULE AS BASED
ON THE 00Z MODELS...WITH A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER MS AND AL
POSSIBLY FOILING THE OUTCOME. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS IT
WILL STILL HAPPEN...BUT MAY BE MORE FOCUSE ON OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES.
ONCE THIS PASSES...IT WILL BE A WAITING GAME FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS OUR AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THERE WILL BE LARGE SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY PRESENT IN OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...WITH WEAKER
AND MORE ELEVATED INSTABILITY FURTHER NORTHEAST. SHEAR WILL BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. DRY MID
LEVEL AIR IS ALSO EXPECTED IN OUR SW. THIS WILL PRESENT A THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. THE PERIOD IS
SET TO BEGIN WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OUT OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PATTERN
IS THEN FORECAST TO CHANGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS BOTH
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER SYSTEMS MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND GULF COAST REGIONS. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...AND THEREFORE WOULD HAVE
TO GREATER INFLUENCE ON AREA WEATHER MID WEEK. AS IT STANDS...A
ROUGHLY 60 40 BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS WAS USED TO CREATE
THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BRING MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHWARD AND PHASE WITH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS LOW. THE GFS DOES DIFFER SLIGHTLY FROM THE
ECMWF MODEL DURING THIS PERIOD...AS ITS NORTHERN STREAM LOW PUSHES
ON EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND...AS OPPOSED TO PHASING WITH THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM...AS THE ECMWF IS DEPICTING. THAT BEING
SAID...THIS IS WHERE THE USUALLY MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTION WAS FAVORED. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE DIFFERING MODEL
SOLUTIONS...DECIDED TO STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS...WITH 40 BEING THE HIGH END DURING THE WET PERIOD. FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE DRY AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER
SYSTEM EXITS TO OUR EAST AND ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
AND THE FACT THAT THIS WEEKENDS TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN WELLBELOW
NORMAL DUE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. WHAT THIS
AMOUNTS TO IS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STARTING OFF BEHIND THE EIGHT
BALL TO START THE WEEK TEMPERATURE WISE...MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR
THINGS TO WARM UP AS MUCH AS NORMAL DUE TO THE SHORT BREAK BETWEEN
WEATHER SYSTEMS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT AT TAF ISSUANCE...BUT WILL DEGRADE TO
MVFR FROM SW TO NE BETWEEN ABOUT 06Z AND 14Z AS RAIN DEVELOPS. IFR
IS ALSO EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE REPLACED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEY WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE IN THE DAY
AND THIS EVENING. SOME LOCATIONS MAY DESCEND BACK TO IFR WITH THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
335 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 202 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...TEMPS HAVE NOT DROPPED OFF
AS QUICKLY AS WAS FORECAST. HAVE RAISED OVERNIGHT FORECAST MIN
TEMPS A BIT...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN VALLEYS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015
DID AN UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS AND WX THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT BASED ON THE NEWEST HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE AS WELL AS
CURRENT RADAR/OBS. ALSO MATCHED UP THE HOURLY T AND TD GRIDS PER
THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS...WHERE A 5 DEGREE OR SO RIDGE TO VALLEY
SPLIT CURRENTLY EXISTS IN THE EAST. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS...ALONG WITH THE ISSUANCE OF A FRESHENED
SET OF ZONES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015
23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CLINGING ON IN THE FAR EAST
IN THE FACE OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...POISED TO
BRING SVR WX TO KY LATER ON SATURDAY...FROM THE WEST. THIS
WESTERN LOW/S WARM FRONT WILL SWING TOWARD THE AREA BY DAWN...
AFFECTING THE FAR SOUTHWEST INITIALLY THEN LIFTING DEEPER INTO
EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. THE PCPN WILL HAVE A TOUGH
TIME REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
NIGHT AS THE VERY DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE ONLY SLOWLY SATURATES...
DESPITE THE HRRR/NAM12 INDICATIONS. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT
THE EASTERN VALLEYS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUNSET...EVEN
WITH THE THIN HIGH CLOUDS NOW IN PLACE OVERHEAD. ELSEWHERE...
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP THROUGH THE NIGHT...MUCH WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO NUDGE TEMPS IN THE
EASTERN VALLEYS DOWN A BIT...BUT EXPECT THEM TO MIX OUT BY DAWN AS
THE AIR SATURATES AND SHOWERS PUSH OVER THIS PART OF THE STATE. IN
ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT FOR SATURDAY...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL DEPENDING ON THE TRACKS OF THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS AND/OR AN
MCS TRACKING ACROSS THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING THAT
CERTAINLY LOOKS POSSIBLE. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AT THIS TIME IS BEGINNING TO STREAM INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS EVENING. THIS IS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OUT WEST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT NEARLY UNIFORM WITH SOUTHERLY
WARM AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THIS TIME
OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS
IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND MOVING NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING
SHOWERS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTERWARD.
HEADING INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING...THE MAIN SURFACE
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
MIDWEST WITH SOME INSTABILITY BEGINNING TO ENTER THE SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES AND THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW EARLY NON SEVERE STORMS AND
MAY NEED TO ADD THUNDER TO THE TONIGHT PERIOD OF THE HWO. HEADING
INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AFTER EARLIER RAINFALL HAS MOVED
THROUGH...SOME CLEARING SKIES AND RECOVERING ENERGY AND
DESTABILIZATION WILL THEN OCCUR WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AROUND
1000 TO 1500 J/KG OVER SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY BY THE 18Z TIME
FRAME. THIS ALSO WITH SOME 60 KNOT SFC TO 6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME ROTATING STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS
THREAT SPC HAS PUT THE SOUTHERN AREA IN AN ENHANCED THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER AND HAVE PUT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO AND MAY NEED AN
SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT IN DETAIL. THE ONLY THREAT THAT IS A
BIT QUESTIONABLE TOMORROW WILL BE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THOUGH
THE LAST HEAVY RAINFALL WAS LONG ENOUGH AGO THAT MOST PLACES HAVE
BEEN ALLOWED TO DRAIN AND DRY OUT. AS WELL...GREEN HAS GONE INTO
FULL SWING ACROSS THE AREA ALLEVIATING THE RUNOFF POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...THE DISCRETE SUPER CELL POTENTIAL WILL ADD TO THE THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS IF AN MCS DEVELOPS BY LATE IN THE
EVENING ON SATURDAY. MAY NEED TO EVALUATE THIS DURING THE NEXT
MODEL RUN.
HEADING INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH TO
THE NORTHEAST AND THEN THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS RIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY WITH ANOTHER STRONG SHOT OF RAINFALL WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH
TO INITIATE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. HAVE ADJUSTED THE QPF FOR THE
00Z TO 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD FOR THIS RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LESSENING BY 06Z TO 12Z RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE EVENT
WILL BE WINDING DOWN. FOR NOW...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE AND
FLOOD THREAT IN THE HWO AND MAY NEED AN SPS TO FURTHER HIGHLIGHT
THIS. THE ZFP WILL HAVE SEVERE POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL
MENTIONED AS WELL.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. THE PERIOD IS
SET TO BEGIN WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OUT OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PATTERN
IS THEN FORECAST TO CHANGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS BOTH
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER SYSTEMS MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND GULF COAST REGIONS. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...AND THEREFORE WOULD HAVE
TO GREATER INFLUENCE ON AREA WEATHER MID WEEK. AS IT STANDS...A
ROUGHLY 60 40 BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS WAS USED TO CREATE
THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BRING MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHWARD AND PHASE WITH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS LOW. THE GFS DOES DIFFER SLIGHTLY FROM THE
ECMWF MODEL DURING THIS PERIOD...AS ITS NORTHERN STREAM LOW PUSHES
ON EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND...AS OPPOSED TO PHASING WITH THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM...AS THE ECMWF IS DEPICTING. THAT BEING
SAID...THIS IS WHERE THE USUALLY MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTION WAS FAVORED. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE DIFFERING MODEL
SOLUTIONS...DECIDED TO STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS...WITH 40 BEING THE HIGH END DURING THE WET PERIOD. FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE DRY AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER
SYSTEM EXITS TO OUR EAST AND ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
AND THE FACT THAT THIS WEEKENDS TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN WELLBELOW
NORMAL DUE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. WHAT THIS
AMOUNTS TO IS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STARTING OFF BEHIND THE EIGHT
BALL TO START THE WEEK TEMPERATURE WISE...MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR
THINGS TO WARM UP AS MUCH AS NORMAL DUE TO THE SHORT BREAK BETWEEN
WEATHER SYSTEMS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT AT TAF ISSUANCE...BUT WILL DEGRADE TO
MVFR FROM SW TO NE BETWEEN ABOUT 06Z AND 14Z AS RAIN DEVELOPS. IFR
IS ALSO EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE REPLACED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEY WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE IN THE DAY
AND THIS EVENING. SOME LOCATIONS MAY DESCEND BACK TO IFR WITH THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
202 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 202 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...TEMPS HAVE NOT DROPPED OFF
AS QUICKLY AS WAS FORECAST. HAVE RAISED OVERNIGHT FORECAST MIN
TEMPS A BIT...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN VALLEYS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015
DID AN UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS AND WX THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT BASED ON THE NEWEST HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE AS WELL AS
CURRENT RADAR/OBS. ALSO MATCHED UP THE HOURLY T AND TD GRIDS PER
THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS...WHERE A 5 DEGREE OR SO RIDGE TO VALLEY
SPLIT CURRENTLY EXISTS IN THE EAST. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS...ALONG WITH THE ISSUANCE OF A FRESHENED
SET OF ZONES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015
23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CLINGING ON IN THE FAR EAST
IN THE FACE OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...POISED TO
BRING SVR WX TO KY LATER ON SATURDAY...FROM THE WEST. THIS
WESTERN LOW/S WARM FRONT WILL SWING TOWARD THE AREA BY DAWN...
AFFECTING THE FAR SOUTHWEST INITIALLY THEN LIFTING DEEPER INTO
EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. THE PCPN WILL HAVE A TOUGH
TIME REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
NIGHT AS THE VERY DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE ONLY SLOWLY SATURATES...
DESPITE THE HRRR/NAM12 INDICATIONS. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT
THE EASTERN VALLEYS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUNSET...EVEN
WITH THE THIN HIGH CLOUDS NOW IN PLACE OVERHEAD. ELSEWHERE...
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP THROUGH THE NIGHT...MUCH WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO NUDGE TEMPS IN THE
EASTERN VALLEYS DOWN A BIT...BUT EXPECT THEM TO MIX OUT BY DAWN AS
THE AIR SATURATES AND SHOWERS PUSH OVER THIS PART OF THE STATE. IN
ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT FOR SATURDAY...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL DEPENDING ON THE TRACKS OF THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS AND/OR AN
MCS TRACKING ACROSS THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING THAT
CERTAINLY LOOKS POSSIBLE. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AT THIS TIME IS BEGINNING TO STREAM INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS EVENING. THIS IS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OUT WEST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT NEARLY UNIFORM WITH SOUTHERLY
WARM AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THIS TIME
OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS
IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND MOVING NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING
SHOWERS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTERWARD.
HEADING INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING...THE MAIN SURFACE
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
MIDWEST WITH SOME INSTABILITY BEGINNING TO ENTER THE SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES AND THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW EARLY NON SEVERE STORMS AND
MAY NEED TO ADD THUNDER TO THE TONIGHT PERIOD OF THE HWO. HEADING
INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AFTER EARLIER RAINFALL HAS MOVED
THROUGH...SOME CLEARING SKIES AND RECOVERING ENERGY AND
DESTABILIZATION WILL THEN OCCUR WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AROUND
1000 TO 1500 J/KG OVER SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY BY THE 18Z TIME
FRAME. THIS ALSO WITH SOME 60 KNOT SFC TO 6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME ROTATING STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS
THREAT SPC HAS PUT THE SOUTHERN AREA IN AN ENHANCED THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER AND HAVE PUT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO AND MAY NEED AN
SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT IN DETAIL. THE ONLY THREAT THAT IS A
BIT QUESTIONABLE TOMORROW WILL BE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THOUGH
THE LAST HEAVY RAINFALL WAS LONG ENOUGH AGO THAT MOST PLACES HAVE
BEEN ALLOWED TO DRAIN AND DRY OUT. AS WELL...GREEN HAS GONE INTO
FULL SWING ACROSS THE AREA ALLEVIATING THE RUNOFF POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...THE DISCRETE SUPER CELL POTENTIAL WILL ADD TO THE THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS IF AN MCS DEVELOPS BY LATE IN THE
EVENING ON SATURDAY. MAY NEED TO EVALUATE THIS DURING THE NEXT
MODEL RUN.
HEADING INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH TO
THE NORTHEAST AND THEN THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS RIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY WITH ANOTHER STRONG SHOT OF RAINFALL WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH
TO INITIATE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. HAVE ADJUSTED THE QPF FOR THE
00Z TO 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD FOR THIS RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LESSENING BY 06Z TO 12Z RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE EVENT
WILL BE WINDING DOWN. FOR NOW...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE AND
FLOOD THREAT IN THE HWO AND MAY NEED AN SPS TO FURTHER HIGHLIGHT
THIS. THE ZFP WILL HAVE SEVERE POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL
MENTIONED AS WELL.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015
ANY REMAINING RAINFALL SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE SFC LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSH EAST OF KY. BEHIND THIS...
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR AS DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY TO RECEIVE A BREAK FROM THE
WET WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. THIS IS DUE TO AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.
A LARGE CUTOFF LOW WILL THEN GRADUALLY MOVE EWD FROM TX ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN US WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES EWD ITS
ENERGY IS FORECASTED TO GET WRAPPED INTO A DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE PAST
COUPLE OF RUNS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...WHERE THE ECMWF
SOLUTION HAS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A TRACK SIMILAR
TO THAT OF THE GFS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF SOLUTION KEEPS THE LOW CUT
OFF AND SEPARATE FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH...CREATING QUITE A
BIT MORE PRECIP THAN THE GFS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTING IN THIS PART OF
THE EXTENDED...DECIDED TO KEEP PRECIP IN DURING THE WED/THURS TIME
FRAME...AND STUCK CLOSE TO THE CR SUPERBLEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL AND STAY IN THE 60S FOR
HIGHS AND IN THE 40S FOR LOWS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. DURING THE
DRIER PERIODS...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT AT TAF ISSUANCE...BUT WILL DEGRADE TO
MVFR FROM SW TO NE BETWEEN ABOUT 06Z AND 14Z AS RAIN DEVELOPS. IFR
IS ALSO EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE REPLACED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEY WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE IN THE DAY
AND THIS EVENING. SOME LOCATIONS MAY DESCEND BACK TO IFR WITH THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1220 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO DECREASE AND SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA...BUT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER THE
MID TEXAS COAST. FOR NOW...BELIEVE THIS WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS.
LATEST HRRR KEEPS SCATTERED PRECIPITATION OVER LOWER ACADIANA
THROUGH MOST OF AFTERNOON WITH LESS COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. FOR
ARA...WILL HAVE TEMPO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WILL HAVE VCTS FOR THE REMAINING SITES.
MOISTURE PROFILE IS CONDUCIVE FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR TONIGHT.
WILL KEEP MOST CIGS AND VSBYS IN THE MVFR RANGE. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECASTED BY MID MORNING.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UA ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPR LOW OVER
KS...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING SOUTH ACRS OK AND TX. AMPLE
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACRS THE REGION ON SWLY FLOW ALOFT.
LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS TWO MAIN CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION...A
COUPLE OF BANDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXITING THE LOWER MS VALLEY
AND ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS UPSTREAM ACRS THE HILL COUNTRY IN TX.
THIS IS THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...AND WILL BEAR
WATCHING THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN.
DISCUSSION...
LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOW THE CLUSTER OF STORMS ACRS TX MOVING INTO
OUR AREA LIKELY AROUND 9 OR 10 AM THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CROSS THE AREA EARLY TODAY...WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION EXPECTED
TO BE CONCENTRATED ACRS SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IT IS FCST TO
EVENTUALLY EXIT THE OUR S CNTL LA ZONES BETWEEN 1 AND 3 PM. PLENTY
OF MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE WITH PW VALUES RUNNING CLOSE TO 1.8
INCHES...AND LIFT WILL BE HELPED BY THE PRESENCE OF A ROBUST RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION BENEATH THE UPPER JET. AS A RESULT...SOME STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH A
FEW STRONG STORMS AMIDST MODT LOW LVL SHEAR.
RAIN CHCS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTN AS THE MAIN
ENERGY WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. A BRIEF BREAK
FROM THE SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARRIVES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE UPSTREAM WILL BEGIN TAKING SHAPE AS AN UPR LOW DIVES
SE ACRS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL EJECT INTO
THE SRN PLAINS MONDAY...WITH A MOIST AND DIVERGENT SWLY FLOW
BECOMING RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP OVER TX ON MONDAY...WITH A MIDLVL JET TRANSLATING EAST
TOWARD ERN TX. EXPECT SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER TX SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN SPREAD EAST ACRS THE AREA MONDAY. INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE ON MONDAY WITH WIND PROFILES SHOWING STRONG VEERING WITH
HEIGHT AND HELICITY VALUES EXCEEDING 200 M2/S2. SPC HAS THE
REGION HIGHLIGHTED IN A SLT RISK FOR SVR STORMS WITH LARGE
HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND EVEN A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. LIKELY POPS REMAIN OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...THEN
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS
EAST OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
MEANWHILE...THE SFC LOW OVER TX WILL MOVE EAST NR THE COAST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE SFC
LOW...WITH DRIER NWLY FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT. THIS WILL FINALLY
BRING AN END TO THE RAIN...WITH DRIER...COOLER AND MORE
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
INTO THE 50S...COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WHILE
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S. THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DEVELOPING.
24
MARINE...
A MDT SLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRES
EAST OF THE REGION AND A SERIES OF LOW PRES SYSTEMS DEVELOPING WEST
OF THE AREA. AN UPR LVL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL
KEEP A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHC FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. AS THIS DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA...IT WILL INDUCE
SFC LOW PRES OVER TX. THIS LOW WILL THEN CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BE
STRONG...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
WATER LIGHTNING. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...RAIN
CHCS WILL COME TO AN END...WITH MODT TO STRONG NLY WINDS
DEVELOPING POSSIBLY BRINGING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO
THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
24
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 67 89 66 79 / 10 20 20 60
LCH 70 85 70 81 / 10 20 20 60
LFT 69 88 69 82 / 10 20 20 60
BPT 69 85 70 81 / 10 20 20 60
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
908 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
.UPDATE...
BASED ON DISCUSSION WITH SPC...DECIDED TO EXPAND THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN AREA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED PRODUCTS TO INCLUDE SVR TSTM WATCH 109 WHICH IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 1 PM. BAND OF STRONG TO SVR STORMS CONTINUES TO MARCH EAST
ACRS SE TX AND THE STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD BE ENTERING WRN
JEFFERSON COUNTY WITHIN THE HOUR. 24
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.
AVIATION...
MIX OF GENERALLY MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS THIS MORNING...WITH
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING AN INCREASE IN UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY OVER EAST TEXAS. LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN
EASTWARD EXPANSION/MOVEMENT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WHILE THERE
WILL LIKELY BE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD
PREVAIL. INSERTED A TEMPO FOR SHOWERS AT EACH TERMINAL BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. CLOUD COVER MAY
SCATTER OUT/LIFT MORE THAN CURRENTLY FCST FOR THE AFTERNOON HRS AS
DRIER AIR ALOFT WORKS IN FROM THE WEST...BUT MSTR IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN TRAPPED NEAR THE SFC...LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN.
13
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UA ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPR LOW OVER
KS...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING SOUTH ACRS OK AND TX. AMPLE
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACRS THE REGION ON SWLY FLOW ALOFT.
LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS TWO MAIN CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION...A
COUPLE OF BANDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXITING THE LOWER MS VALLEY
AND ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS UPSTREAM ACRS THE HILL COUNTRY IN TX.
THIS IS THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...AND WILL BEAR
WATCHING THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN.
DISCUSSION...
LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOW THE CLUSTER OF STORMS ACRS TX MOVING INTO
OUR AREA LIKELY AROUND 9 OR 10 AM THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CROSS THE AREA EARLY TODAY...WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION EXPECTED
TO BE CONCENTRATED ACRS SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IT IS FCST TO
EVENTUALLY EXIT THE OUR S CNTL LA ZONES BETWEEN 1 AND 3 PM. PLENTY
OF MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE WITH PW VALUES RUNNING CLOSE TO 1.8
INCHES...AND LIFT WILL BE HELPED BY THE PRESENCE OF A ROBUST RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION BENEATH THE UPPER JET. AS A RESULT...SOME STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH A
FEW STRONG STORMS AMIDST MODT LOW LVL SHEAR.
RAIN CHCS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTN AS THE MAIN
ENERGY WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. A BRIEF BREAK
FROM THE SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARRIVES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE UPSTREAM WILL BEGIN TAKING SHAPE AS AN UPR LOW DIVES
SE ACRS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL EJECT INTO
THE SRN PLAINS MONDAY...WITH A MOIST AND DIVERGENT SWLY FLOW
BECOMING RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP OVER TX ON MONDAY...WITH A MIDLVL JET TRANSLATING EAST
TOWARD ERN TX. EXPECT SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER TX SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN SPREAD EAST ACRS THE AREA MONDAY. INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE ON MONDAY WITH WIND PROFILES SHOWING STRONG VEERING WITH
HEIGHT AND HELICITY VALUES EXCEEDING 200 M2/S2. SPC HAS THE
REGION HIGHLIGHTED IN A SLT RISK FOR SVR STORMS WITH LARGE
HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND EVEN A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. LIKELY POPS REMAIN OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...THEN
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS
EAST OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
MEANWHILE...THE SFC LOW OVER TX WILL MOVE EAST NR THE COAST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE SFC
LOW...WITH DRIER NWLY FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT. THIS WILL FINALLY
BRING AN END TO THE RAIN...WITH DRIER...COOLER AND MORE
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
INTO THE 50S...COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WHILE
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S. THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DEVELOPING.
24
MARINE...
A MDT SLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRES
EAST OF THE REGION AND A SERIES OF LOW PRES SYSTEMS DEVELOPING WEST
OF THE AREA. AN UPR LVL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL
KEEP A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHC FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. AS THIS DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA...IT WILL INDUCE
SFC LOW PRES OVER TX. THIS LOW WILL THEN CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BE
STRONG...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
WATER LIGHTNING. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...RAIN
CHCS WILL COME TO AN END...WITH MODT TO STRONG NLY WINDS
DEVELOPING POSSIBLY BRINGING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO
THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
24
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 87 67 89 66 / 40 10 20 20
LCH 82 70 85 70 / 50 10 20 20
LFT 85 69 88 69 / 50 10 20 20
BPT 84 69 85 70 / 50 10 20 20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...27
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
729 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED PRODUCTS TO INCLUDE SVR TSTM WATCH 109 WHICH IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 1 PM. BAND OF STRONG TO SVR STORMS CONTINUES TO MARCH EAST
ACRS SE TX AND THE STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD BE ENTERING WRN
JEFFERSON COUNTY WITHIN THE HOUR. 24
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.
AVIATION...
MIX OF GENERALLY MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS THIS MORNING...WITH
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING AN INCREASE IN UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY OVER EAST TEXAS. LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN
EASTWARD EXPANSION/MOVEMENT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WHILE THERE
WILL LIKELY BE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD
PREVAIL. INSERTED A TEMPO FOR SHOWERS AT EACH TERMINAL BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. CLOUD COVER MAY
SCATTER OUT/LIFT MORE THAN CURRENTLY FCST FOR THE AFTERNOON HRS AS
DRIER AIR ALOFT WORKS IN FROM THE WEST...BUT MSTR IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN TRAPPED NEAR THE SFC...LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN.
13
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UA ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPR LOW OVER
KS...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING SOUTH ACRS OK AND TX. AMPLE
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACRS THE REGION ON SWLY FLOW ALOFT.
LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS TWO MAIN CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION...A
COUPLE OF BANDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXITING THE LOWER MS VALLEY
AND ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS UPSTREAM ACRS THE HILL COUNTRY IN TX.
THIS IS THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...AND WILL BEAR
WATCHING THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN.
DISCUSSION...
LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOW THE CLUSTER OF STORMS ACRS TX MOVING INTO
OUR AREA LIKELY AROUND 9 OR 10 AM THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CROSS THE AREA EARLY TODAY...WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION EXPECTED
TO BE CONCENTRATED ACRS SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IT IS FCST TO
EVENTUALLY EXIT THE OUR S CNTL LA ZONES BETWEEN 1 AND 3 PM. PLENTY
OF MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE WITH PW VALUES RUNNING CLOSE TO 1.8
INCHES...AND LIFT WILL BE HELPED BY THE PRESENCE OF A ROBUST RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION BENEATH THE UPPER JET. AS A RESULT...SOME STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH A
FEW STRONG STORMS AMIDST MODT LOW LVL SHEAR.
RAIN CHCS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTN AS THE MAIN
ENERGY WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. A BRIEF BREAK
FROM THE SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARRIVES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE UPSTREAM WILL BEGIN TAKING SHAPE AS AN UPR LOW DIVES
SE ACRS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL EJECT INTO
THE SRN PLAINS MONDAY...WITH A MOIST AND DIVERGENT SWLY FLOW
BECOMING RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP OVER TX ON MONDAY...WITH A MIDLVL JET TRANSLATING EAST
TOWARD ERN TX. EXPECT SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER TX SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN SPREAD EAST ACRS THE AREA MONDAY. INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE ON MONDAY WITH WIND PROFILES SHOWING STRONG VEERING WITH
HEIGHT AND HELICITY VALUES EXCEEDING 200 M2/S2. SPC HAS THE
REGION HIGHLIGHTED IN A SLT RISK FOR SVR STORMS WITH LARGE
HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND EVEN A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. LIKELY POPS REMAIN OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...THEN
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS
EAST OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
MEANWHILE...THE SFC LOW OVER TX WILL MOVE EAST NR THE COAST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE SFC
LOW...WITH DRIER NWLY FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT. THIS WILL FINALLY
BRING AN END TO THE RAIN...WITH DRIER...COOLER AND MORE
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
INTO THE 50S...COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WHILE
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S. THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DEVELOPING.
24
MARINE...
A MDT SLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRES
EAST OF THE REGION AND A SERIES OF LOW PRES SYSTEMS DEVELOPING WEST
OF THE AREA. AN UPR LVL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL
KEEP A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHC FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. AS THIS DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA...IT WILL INDUCE
SFC LOW PRES OVER TX. THIS LOW WILL THEN CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BE
STRONG...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
WATER LIGHTNING. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...RAIN
CHCS WILL COME TO AN END...WITH MODT TO STRONG NLY WINDS
DEVELOPING POSSIBLY BRINGING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO
THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
24
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 87 67 89 66 / 40 10 20 20
LCH 82 70 85 70 / 50 10 20 20
LFT 85 69 88 69 / 50 10 20 20
BPT 84 69 85 70 / 50 10 20 20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
659 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
MIX OF GENERALLY MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS THIS MORNING...WITH
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING AN INCREASE IN UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY OVER EAST TEXAS. LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN
EASTWARD EXPANSION/MOVEMENT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WHILE THERE
WILL LIKELY BE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD
PREVAIL. INSERTED A TEMPO FOR SHOWERS AT EACH TERMINAL BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. CLOUD COVER MAY
SCATTER OUT/LIFT MORE THAN CURRENTLY FCST FOR THE AFTERNOON HRS AS
DRIER AIR ALOFT WORKS IN FROM THE WEST...BUT MSTR IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN TRAPPED NEAR THE SFC...LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN.
13
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UA ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPR LOW OVER
KS...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING SOUTH ACRS OK AND TX. AMPLE
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACRS THE REGION ON SWLY FLOW ALOFT.
LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS TWO MAIN CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION...A
COUPLE OF BANDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXITING THE LOWER MS VALLEY
AND ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS UPSTREAM ACRS THE HILL COUNTRY IN TX.
THIS IS THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...AND WILL BEAR
WATCHING THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN.
DISCUSSION...
LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOW THE CLUSTER OF STORMS ACRS TX MOVING INTO
OUR AREA LIKELY AROUND 9 OR 10 AM THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CROSS THE AREA EARLY TODAY...WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION EXPECTED
TO BE CONCENTRATED ACRS SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IT IS FCST TO
EVENTUALLY EXIT THE OUR S CNTL LA ZONES BETWEEN 1 AND 3 PM. PLENTY
OF MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE WITH PW VALUES RUNNING CLOSE TO 1.8
INCHES...AND LIFT WILL BE HELPED BY THE PRESENCE OF A ROBUST RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION BENEATH THE UPPER JET. AS A RESULT...SOME STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH A
FEW STRONG STORMS AMIDST MODT LOW LVL SHEAR.
RAIN CHCS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTN AS THE MAIN
ENERGY WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. A BRIEF BREAK
FROM THE SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARRIVES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE UPSTREAM WILL BEGIN TAKING SHAPE AS AN UPR LOW DIVES
SE ACRS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL EJECT INTO
THE SRN PLAINS MONDAY...WITH A MOIST AND DIVERGENT SWLY FLOW
BECOMING RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP OVER TX ON MONDAY...WITH A MIDLVL JET TRANSLATING EAST
TOWARD ERN TX. EXPECT SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER TX SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN SPREAD EAST ACRS THE AREA MONDAY. INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE ON MONDAY WITH WIND PROFILES SHOWING STRONG VEERING WITH
HEIGHT AND HELICITY VALUES EXCEEDING 200 M2/S2. SPC HAS THE
REGION HIGHLIGHTED IN A SLT RISK FOR SVR STORMS WITH LARGE
HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND EVEN A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. LIKELY POPS REMAIN OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...THEN
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS
EAST OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
MEANWHILE...THE SFC LOW OVER TX WILL MOVE EAST NR THE COAST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE SFC
LOW...WITH DRIER NWLY FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT. THIS WILL FINALLY
BRING AN END TO THE RAIN...WITH DRIER...COOLER AND MORE
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
INTO THE 50S...COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WHILE
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S. THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DEVELOPING.
24
MARINE...
A MDT SLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRES
EAST OF THE REGION AND A SERIES OF LOW PRES SYSTEMS DEVELOPING WEST
OF THE AREA. AN UPR LVL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL
KEEP A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHC FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. AS THIS DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA...IT WILL INDUCE
SFC LOW PRES OVER TX. THIS LOW WILL THEN CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BE
STRONG...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
WATER LIGHTNING. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...RAIN
CHCS WILL COME TO AN END...WITH MODT TO STRONG NLY WINDS
DEVELOPING POSSIBLY BRINGING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO
THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
24
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 87 67 89 66 / 40 10 20 20
LCH 82 70 85 70 / 50 10 20 20
LFT 85 69 88 69 / 50 10 20 20
BPT 84 69 85 70 / 50 10 20 20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE...24
AVIATION...13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
547 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UA ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPR LOW OVER
KS...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING SOUTH ACRS OK AND TX. AMPLE
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACRS THE REGION ON SWLY FLOW ALOFT.
LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS TWO MAIN CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION...A
COUPLE OF BANDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXITING THE LOWER MS VALLEY
AND ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS UPSTREAM ACRS THE HILL COUNTRY IN TX.
THIS IS THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...AND WILL BEAR
WATCHING THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOW THE CLUSTER OF STORMS ACRS TX MOVING INTO
OUR AREA LIKELY AROUND 9 OR 10 AM THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CROSS THE AREA EARLY TODAY...WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION EXPECTED
TO BE CONCENTRATED ACRS SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IT IS FCST TO
EVENTUALLY EXIT THE OUR S CNTL LA ZONES BETWEEN 1 AND 3 PM. PLENTY
OF MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE WITH PW VALUES RUNNING CLOSE TO 1.8
INCHES...AND LIFT WILL BE HELPED BY THE PRESENCE OF A ROBUST RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION BENEATH THE UPPER JET. AS A RESULT...SOME STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH A
FEW STRONG STORMS AMIDST MODT LOW LVL SHEAR.
RAIN CHCS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTN AS THE MAIN
ENERGY WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. A BRIEF BREAK
FROM THE SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARRIVES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE UPSTREAM WILL BEGIN TAKING SHAPE AS AN UPR LOW DIVES
SE ACRS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL EJECT INTO
THE SRN PLAINS MONDAY...WITH A MOIST AND DIVERGENT SWLY FLOW
BECOMING RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP OVER TX ON MONDAY...WITH A MIDLVL JET TRANSLATING EAST
TOWARD ERN TX. EXPECT SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER TX SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN SPREAD EAST ACRS THE AREA MONDAY. INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE ON MONDAY WITH WIND PROFILES SHOWING STRONG VEERING WITH
HEIGHT AND HELICITY VALUES EXCEEDING 200 M2/S2. SPC HAS THE
REGION HIGHLIGHTED IN A SLT RISK FOR SVR STORMS WITH LARGE
HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND EVEN A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. LIKELY POPS REMAIN OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...THEN
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS
EAST OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
MEANWHILE...THE SFC LOW OVER TX WILL MOVE EAST NR THE COAST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE SFC
LOW...WITH DRIER NWLY FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT. THIS WILL FINALLY
BRING AN END TO THE RAIN...WITH DRIER...COOLER AND MORE
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
INTO THE 50S...COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WHILE
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S. THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DEVELOPING.
&&
.MARINE...
A MDT SLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRES
EAST OF THE REGION AND A SERIES OF LOW PRES SYSTEMS DEVELOPING WEST
OF THE AREA. AN UPR LVL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL
KEEP A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHC FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. AS THIS DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA...IT WILL INDUCE
SFC LOW PRES OVER TX. THIS LOW WILL THEN CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BE
STRONG...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
WATER LIGHTNING. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...RAIN
CHCS WILL COME TO AN END...WITH MODT TO STRONG NLY WINDS
DEVELOPING POSSIBLY BRINGING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO
THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 87 67 89 66 / 40 10 20 20
LCH 82 70 85 70 / 50 10 20 20
LFT 85 69 88 69 / 50 10 20 20
BPT 84 69 85 70 / 50 10 20 20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1153 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
.AVIATION...SOUPY AIRMASS WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE. SOME SHOWERS
STREAMING INTO THE BPT AND LCH TERMINAL AREAS. CIGS HAVE ALREADY
LOWERED TO IFR AT BPT, ARA, AND AEX. BAND OF TSTMS SHOWING SIGNS
OF WEAKENING AND SLOWING NORTHWEST OF AEX. WILL INCLUDE VCTS LATE
TNITE THERE. REMAINDER OF TERMINALS WILL HEAD FOR LIFR TNITE. WILL
GO WITH MVFR MOST OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY IFR BCMG LIFR SATURDAY
EVENING.
SWEENEY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SFC OBS FROM AROUND THE REGION SHOW THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN A
SIGNIFICANT WARM SECTOR WITH DEWPOINTS RUNNING IN THE LOWER/MID
70S MOST LOCATIONS AS OF 02Z. 00Z KLCH SOUNDING SHOWED AN AIRMASS
PRIMED FOR CONVECTION WITH A PWAT VALUE RUNNING ABOUT 200 PERCENT
OF NORMAL...EXCELLENT INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES/CAPE...AND GOOD
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES
IN THE SRN STREAM FLOW ALOFT. ADD ALL THIS UP AND REGIONAL 88DS
CURRENTLY SHOW A FEW SHOWERS ONGOING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...
BUT A SIGNIFICANT SQUALL LINE/MCS CROSSING SRN AR/NWRN LA/NERN TX
ATTM. AS EXPECTED LATEST HRRR RUN HAS THIS EVENT PEGGED PRETTY
WELL AND IS IN LINE WITH INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES. LATEST SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK HAS REDUCED OUR SEVERE RISK TO MARGINAL...BUT GIVEN SUCH
GOOD CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS NOTED EARLIER WILL MAINTAIN THE
INHERITED SEVERE MENTION. ELSEWHERE CHANGES WERE MINIMAL.
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
25
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/
AVIATION...THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS SHOULD HAVE MVFR CIGS LINGERING
THIS EVENING. TOWARDS MIDNIGHT A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE COULD
PRODUCE SCATTERED TSTMS WITH IFR CIGS AT LCH, LFT, AND ARA. BPT
SHOULD STAY IFR CIGS WITH FOG DEVELOPING THIS EVENING. AEX WILL GO
FROM VFR TO IFR CIGS THIS EVENING. ALL THE TERMINALS SHOULD SEE
MVFR COME MORNING WITH THE POSSIBLILITY OF VFR LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS MOISTURE HEADS OUT TO THE
EAST.
JS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/
DISCUSSION...
BUSY AFTERNOON TRACKING SEVERE SUPERCELL ACROSS SE TX INTO S
LA...PRODUCING DAMAGE ALONG MOST OF ITS PATH. ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA
TRIED TO DEVELOP BEHIND IT...BUT HAS SINCE DISSIPATED.
NOW...SVR WX THREAT IS NOT OVER YET. THE NEXT ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA
IS DEVELOPING ACROSS C AND NE TX NOW...AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SE
ACROSS OUR REGION LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS INLAND SE TX...AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK. A SLIGHT RISK
OF SVR TSTM WILL CONTINUE WITH THESE CELLS...WITH HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES.
GET A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE SVR WEATHER LATER SAT INTO SUN. YET
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF TSRA BY LATE MON/TUE...WITH A POSSIBILITY OF SVR WX...AS
OUTLINED IN THE DAY 4 SPC OUTLOOK.
BY LATE TUE INTO WED AND THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...COOLER
AND DRIER AIR BRING THE TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH NO PRECIP
EXPECTED.
DML
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 71 88 68 90 / 60 40 10 10
LCH 72 83 70 86 / 60 50 10 10
LFT 73 85 70 88 / 50 50 10 10
BPT 72 84 69 85 / 60 50 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
313 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER KENTUCKY WILL TRACK EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT AND OFF THE COAST
SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOW REMAINS OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER LOW MAY IMPACT THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOR REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...AT 1830Z RADAR SHOWING SOME SCATTERED
RETURNS OVER LOWER SRN MD...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA WAS
CLOUDY BUT PRECIP FREE MOSTLY. LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP ALONG AN
ELKINS-STAUNTON VA-CHARLOTTESVILLE LINE. THIS AREA IS MOVING EAST
AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP...AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN THE NEXT
2-4 HOURS...EXCEPT NE MD COULD TAKE UNTIL 7-8PM FOR PRECIP TO START.
LOW LEVELS STILL QUITE DRY ACROSS NRN 2/3RDS OF CWA. PRECIP
REACHING SURFACE WILL CREATE LOW LEVEL COOLING...SO TEMPS WILL
KEEP ON THE COOL SIDE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FOR
THIS LATE IN APRIL.
FOR TONIGHT...PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONTAL SYSTEM LIFTING
ACROSS THE REGION WILL IMPACT THE REGION MAINLY THROUGH 06Z...THEN
MODELS SUGGEST BULK OF PRECIP WILL LIGHTEN CONSIDERABLY AFTER
THEN. EARLIER TIMING OF PRECIP SUGGESTED LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP
WOULD IMPACT ENTIRE CWA THROUGH 10-12Z SUNDAY MORNING. BUT
GUIDANCE TODAY SUGGESTS A FASTER TIMING WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH OVERNIGHT AND BASICALLY
TRENDED MIN TEMPS TO ADJUSTED MET GUIDANCE.
FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY LINE UP PRETTY WELL WITH WPC
QPF AMOUNTS AND WILL BE GENERALLY HEAVIER ACROSS THE SW PORTION
WITH AMOUNTS AROUND ONE HALF INCH...DC METRO AROUND ONE- QUARTER
OF AN INCH...BALTIMORE BETWEEN 1-2 TENTHS.
HI RES CAM MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 12Z NAM/GFS/SREF ON
TIMING OF PRECIP ACROSS AREA. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE
PRECIP COULD EVEN BE MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING.
FOR SUNDAY...THERE COULD BE LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE SRN
TIER OF THE CWA JUST AFTER 12Z...BUT CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL PUSH
SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGH TEMPS STILL COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND USED A
BLEND OF MOS/ADJ MAV.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
REGION REMAINS POSITIONED UNDER UPPER LVL LOW CENTERED OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WHILE SFC LOW SETTLES WELL OFFSHORE TO START
THE WORK WEEK. GENERALLY EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS SUN NIGHT WITH A
BREAK IN THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY...THOUGH A SFC TROF COULD GENERATE
ISO SHOWERS SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 30S
FOR LOWS SUN NIGHT COULD RESULT IN ANY PCPN NEAR DAYBREAK BEING A
RAIN/SNOW OR EVEN ALL SNOW...WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUM.
THE REGION WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE LOW OFFSHORE MONDAY...RESULTING IN ELEVATED
WINDS...WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH. POPS INCREASE AFTR 12Z MON AS NEXT
SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX ROUNDS THE LOW...WITH THE BETTER CHC WESTERN AND
EASTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA. THE STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL EXTEND ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC FOR MOST OF THE DAY...PRODUCING SCT SHOWERS.
PCPN TAPERS OFF MON EVENING AS UPPER LVL LOW PIVOTS OFFSHORE. AS THE
HIGH BUILDS IN...EXPECTING TO SEE WARMING TEMPS...WITH TEMPS NEARING
NORMAL BY MON NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DESPITE THE COOL START AND CONTINUED CAA BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...TEMPS WILL REBOUND A FEW DEGREES TUE AS DECREASING CLOUDS
ALLOW THE LATE APRIL SUN TO DO ITS WORK. THIS SLOW WARMING TREND
CONTINUES INTO WED...WITH TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL...AS A WEAK AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
MODEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY BY LATE WED INTO THU WITH
REGARDS TO DEVELOPING LOW OVER GOM. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TO
SHUNT MAIN IMPACTS TO OUR SOUTH...WITH LITTLE QPF OVER CWA. 12Z GFS
FAR DIFFERENT FROM 00Z ECMWF...AS GFS HAS NO COASTAL LOW OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AND ECMWF DOES. HAVE LOWERED POPS SOME FOR
THU...ALTHOUGH FOR CONSISTENCY AND TO AVOID JUMPING ON ONE MODEL
CYCLE STILL KEPT CHC POPS...ALTHOUGH THAT MIGHT BE TOO HIGH.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY FRIDAY...BRINGING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID TO LATE DAY. PRECIP
WILL MOVE IN AND CIGS WILL LOWER. THIS EVENING EXPECT MVFR TO
LOCALLY IFR CIGS IN PRECIP...EXPECT BWI/IAD/DCA CIGS TO RANGE FROM
2-3 KFT THIS EVENING...LOCALLY DOWN TO 1KFT IN HEAVIER PRECIP.
OVERNIGHT...BWI AND IAD COULD SEE CIGS BLO 1KFT. WINDS WILL BE
UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
VFR CONDITIONS SUN-SUN NIGHT. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PSBL MON WITH ANY
RAIN SHOWER. GUSTY NW WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS PSBL AS WELL
DURING THE DAY MON...DIMINISHING AFTR SUNSET. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER
THRU MON NIGHT.
NOT EXPECTING AVIATION CONCERNS TUE/WED WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 10 KTS ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY AND
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH
SUN MORNING...INCREASING SUN AFTN. GUSTS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH 18-20
KTS SUN AFTN WITH NORTHERLY CHANNELING.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS INITIALLY SUN EVENING...WITH INCRSG
WINDS OVERNIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS AS EARLY AS
THE SECOND HALF OF SUN NIGHT...BCMG MORE LIKELY AFTR DAYBREAK MON.
GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS PSBL ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY DURING THE DAY. SCA
GUSTS CONTINUE THRU MON NIGHT.
SCA IS POSSIBLE TUE UNTIL THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH
DEPARTING LOW. PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES ENOUGH FOR A RETURN TO
LIGHT WINDS BY WED.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMZ
NEAR TERM...SMZ
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...SEARS/MSE/SMZ
MARINE...SEARS/MSE/SMZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
739 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP CYC FLOW ARND
CLOSED LO CENTERED OVER NOVA SCOTIA EXTENDING W INTO THE UPR LKS AND
DOWNSTREAM OF UPR RDG IN THE PLAINS. SHRTWV EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPR
TROF IS NEAR THE SOO AND SHIFTING TO THE SSW IN THE NE UPR FLOW ARND
THE CLOSED LO. THIS DISTURBANCE IS BRINGING SOME CLDS TO ERN UPR
MI...BUT ANY ACCOMPANYING PCPN IS ON TRACK TO REMAIN TO THE E OF THE
CWA. THERE IS ANOTHER SHRTWV OVER WRN QUEBEC ROTATING TO THE WSW
ARND THE CLOSED LO. 12Z RAOB FM MOOSONEE ONTARIO SHOWED DEEP
SATURATION. UNDER THE TWO SHRTWVS NOTED TO THE E...THERE ARE PLENTY
OF LO CLDS E AND NE OF THE SOO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEEPER MSTR.
DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS FARTHER TO THE W AS SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB AND
INL RAOBS /12Z PWAT AT THOSE LOCATIONS WAS ABOUT 0.25 INCH AND AS
LITTLE AS 50 PCT OF NORMAL/ IS MAINTAINING MOSUNNY SKIES OVER MOST
OF THE CWA. TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 50S AWAY FM THE MODERATING
INFLUENCE OF LK SUP...BUT READINGS REMAIN NEAR 40 ALONG THE CHILLY
LK SUP SHORE.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR AREA OF
LO CLDS TO THE NE TO IMPACT UPR MI AND IMPACT ON TEMPS.
TNGT...AS SECOND SHRTWV NOW OVER WRN QUEBEC ROTATES SWWD AND OVER
FAR ERN UPR MI...THE LLVL FLOW IS FCST TO VEER MORE TO THE NE AND
ADVECT THE MORE COPIOUS LLVL MSTR INTO THE UPR LKS. IN CONCERT WITH
NOCTURNAL COOLING THAT WL END DEEP MIXING...EXPECT BKN-OVC LO CLDS
TO DVLP OVER MAINLY THE NCENTRAL AND ERN CWA AS INDICATED BY CURRENT
FCST. ALTHOUGH THE DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THIS SHRTWV
ARE FCST TO BRUSH THE ERN CWA...THE BULK OF THE MODELS INDICATE THE
PCPN WL REMAIN TO THE E OF THAT AREA WITH THE MID LVLS REMAINING TOO
DRY. SEVERAL OF THE HIER RES MODELS DO GENERATE SOME LGT PCPN OVER
MAINLY THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NCENTRAL...WHERE THE UPSLOPE FLOW WL
BE MAXIMIZED. OPTED TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF SOME DRIZZLE/FLURRIES IN
THESE AREAS LATE TNGT. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR
FAR W...WHICH WL BE FARTHER FM THE INCOMING HIER LLVL MSTR AND WHERE
DOWNSLOPE...MORE DIFFLUENT FLOW NEAR SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS WL
RESTRICT THE POTENTIAL FOR LO CLDS THAT WOULD ARRIVE LATER.
MON...WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND FCST LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVRN SHOWN
ON FCST SDNGS...EXPECT THE LO CLDS TO GRADUALLY MIX OUT. THIS
PROCESS WL BE SLOWEST OVER THE NCENTRAL AND E. H85 TEMPS WL BE CLOSE
TO 0C...SO MAX TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE 50S OVER THE INTERIOR W
AND SCENTRAL WITH DEEP MIXING. BUT HI TEMPS WL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE
LO END OF GUIDANCE OVER THE NCENTRAL AND E WITH MORE LO CLDS/LK
MODERATION IN PERSISTENT LLVL N FLOW.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
A DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED MOST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
IS DOMINANT FACTOR. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN VARIABLE...STARTING OUT WITH
A RIDGE ALOFT UPSTREAM OF LARGE UPPER LOW MOVING OFF THE EASTERN
CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. STRONG JET SURGING ACROSS WESTERN CANADA
BRINGS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SCNTRL CANADA ON MONDAY AND FM NORTHERN
ONTARIO TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. PRIMARY
WAVE SPLITS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE LINGERING
RIDGING FM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN QUEBEC. EXPECT DRY
WEATHER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF SHOWED SHORTWAVE DIVING
SSE ACROSS UPR LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT. THAT RUN OF ECMWF ALSO FORECASTED SUFFICIENT
H85-H7 RH TO GENERATE QPF OVER MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS WEDNESDAY
EVENING. GFS AND GEM-NH AND NOW THE 12Z ECMWF NOT AS BULLISH
THOUGH...KEEPING STRONGEST FORCING TO THE EAST. WILL NOT SHOW MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHANCES FAR EAST AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN CHILLY
TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHERLY GRADIENT WINDS NEAR
LK SUPERIOR. TEMPS MAY STILL TOUCH 60 DEGREES OVER INLAND AREAS NEAR
WI BORDER.
SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST BY THURSDAY PAVING THE WAY FOR RIDGING TO
EXPAND FM CNTRL PLAINS TO SCNTRL CANADA TOWARD WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
AS THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE MORE OF A LAKE BREEZE DAY AT LEAST
WEST...SO COOLING THERE WILL NOT BE AS EXPANSIVE AS WEDNESDAY.
ENOUGH GRADIENT NORTH WINDS EAST TO KEEP ANY LK MICHIGAN LAKE BREEZE
FROM DEVELOPING. DUE TO DEEPER MIXING...EXPECT HIGHS INLAND WEST TO
REACH LOW-MID 60S. SHOWED LOWEST DWPNTS/RH OVER INTERIOR WEST BUT
ALSO ALONG LK MICHIGAN WHERE PERSISTENT NORTH WINDS PROVIDE
DOWNSLOPE DRYING.
MORE STRONG JET ENERGY PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN CANADA WILL PROPEL
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER SCNTRL CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. UNLIKE THE WAVE EARLIER IN THE
WEEK...WAVE HOLDS TOGETHER WHILE PRESSING EAST AND THERE IS DECENT
MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG ASSOCIATED SFC-H85 TROUGH SWINGING TOWARD
UPPER GREAT LAKES. AFTER A WARM AND DRY DAY FOR FRIDAY WITH SOME
TEMPS REACHING LOWER 70S...SOME SHOWERS SHOULD SWING OVER THE CWA
LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...BUT DESPITE THE WARMTH AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM...THERE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH H85 THETA-E ADVECTION OR
FORECAST INSTABILITY TO PUT ANY TSRA IN ALONG THE TROUGH. SEEMS
MODELS ARE LOCKING ONTO THIS IDEA OF SOME SHRA THOUGH WITH SIMILAR
TIMING IN TROUGH PASSAGE. CARRIED LOW CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
INTO NEXT WEEKEND...GFS QUICKER WITH PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
OVER SCNTRL CANADA...SO IT SHOWS ANOTHER SFC TROUGH AND WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION/QPF INTO WESTERN LAKES AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT. 00Z
ECMWF APPEARED MORE REASONABLE BY SHOWING SLOWER PROGRESSION OF MAIN
TROUGHING AND DEVELOPING A SFC WARM FRONT FM NORTHERN PLAINS TO
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON LEADING EDGE OF VERY WARM AIR. 00Z
ECMWF WOULD INDICATE DUE TO THE MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT TO THE
NORTH OF WARM FRONT COULD SEE CHANCES OF ELEVATED SHOWERS SPREAD
TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. BETTER CHANCE
FOR TSRA WOULD BE CLOSER...BUT PROBABLY WOULD SET UP JUST SOUTH OF
UPPER LAKES CLOSER TO GRADIENT OF 1-2K J/KG MUCAPE AREA FM CNTRL
PLAINS TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LATEST ECMWF IS A MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN PLOWING MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT INTO UPR
LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LEANED ON CONSENSUS BUT DID
INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY GIVEN THAT TREND. DID NOT PUT TSRA
IN FORECAST YET THOUGH THOUGH BASED ON H85 THETA-E AND GRADIENT OF
MUCAPE FM THE 12Z ECMWF IT COULD OCCUR OVER THE AREA. GIVEN H85
TEMPS WARMING ABOVE +10C...TEMPS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY COULD RISE
AT LEAST INTO THE LOW 70S MOST AREAS AWAY FM ANY COOLING FM THE
LAKES. BASED ON 12Z RUNS OF MODELS...THINK BEST CHANCE FOR WARMING
WILL BE ON SATURDAY AFTN IN WAKE OF FRIDAY NIGHT SYSTEM WITH
WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND INCREASING SUNSHINE/DRYING. TEMPS ON
SUNDAY WILL DEPEND ON SHRA AND CLOUD COVERAGE. LEANED ON CONSENSUS
TEMPS /HIGHS MAINLY 60S/ MORE THAN SATURDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES OF
RAIN BY THAT POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 738 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
AS MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT IN THE
PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO IMPACT MAINLY
CMX AND ESPECIALLY SAW...WHERE THE EXPECTED NNE WIND WILL HAVE A STRONGER
UPSLOPE COMPONENT. IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT SAW FOR A NUMBER OF HOURS
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS AT CMX
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...BUT MAINTAINED PREVIOUS FCST LOW MVFR RANGE
CONDITIONS. IWD MAY ALSO SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS...BUT A
DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT AND THE LOCATION OF THE WRN EDGE OF THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE JUSTIFIES ONLY A SCT SKY FCST. SAW WILL SEE THE
SLOWEST IMPROVEMENT ON MON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS NOT LIKELY UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
EXPECT N WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MON...STRONGEST OVER THE E HALF OF
THE LAKE UNDER SHARPER PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HI PRES RIDGE ALIGNED
FROM NW ONTARIO THRU THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. AS THE HI PRES RIDGE
DRIFTS TO THE E LATER ON MON THRU TUE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH UNDER 15
KTS. A LO PRES TROF WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES TUE NIGHT AND THEN
GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER HI PRES RIDGE THRU THU. SINCE THE PRES GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE...WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW 15 KTS.
ALTHOUGH THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP A BIT ON FRI AHEAD OF
ANOTHER LO PRES TROF...HI STABILITY OVER THE CHILLY LAKE WATERS
SHOULD HOLDS WINDS UNDER 15 KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
145 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
LIGHT RAIN SCATTERED AROUND THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
DIMINISH AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY. SKIES WILL
THEN CLEAR OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE DAY ON SUNDAY...BRINGING
A COOL AND NICE DAY TO THE AREA.
THE FIRST PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY. SOME
CLOUDS MAY ROTATE IN FROM THE NE ON MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES BY JUST EAST OF THE STATE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL THEN
COME ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR
AVERAGE...AND POTENTIALLY ABOVE AVERAGE LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON LIMITED TO AREAS
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY HOLLAND TO JACKSON. LATEST SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR AND RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THIS
IDEA.
THE CLOUD FCST IS A BIT TRICKY NORTH OF I-96 AS LATEST VISIBLE
IMAGE SHOWS SOME THINNING TAKING PLACE IN THE MID CLOUD DECK. WILL
HAVE SKIES BECOMING PTLY TO MSTLY SUNNY UP NORTH BUT REMAINING
MOSTLY CLOUDY NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-96. WARMEST HIGH TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD WEST OF HIGHWAY 131 AND NORTH OF I-96 WHERE
READINGS MAY APPROACH LATER TODAY 60 DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF
CLEARING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
THE ONLY REAL CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS DEALING WITH THE RAIN
CHCS DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM TRYING TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA.
THE TREND IN THE LATEST DATA ALL POINTS TOWARD ALMOST ALL
OF THE RAIN MISSING THE CWFA AFTER THE LINGERING LIGHT RAIN EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE AREA ON THE WRN
FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW NEAR MAINE HAS TRENDED QUICKER/STRONGER AND
IS DEFLECTING THE PLAINS LOW FURTHER SOUTH. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
APPEARS TO SUPPORT THE LIMIT IN NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE LOW IN THE
PLAINS. WE HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-94.
ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. WE WILL SEE A QUIET AND DRY
PERIOD SETTLE IN FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A
MILDER DAY ON SUN WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT A COUPLE OF NIGHTS/MORNINGS WITH SOME FROST AND POSSIBLE
HEADLINES FOR LOCATIONS IN THE GROWING SEASON ALREADY AS TEMPS WILL
BE DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S. ENOUGH WIND MAY REMAIN UP SUN NIGHT TO
PREVENT FROST DEVELOPMENT.
WE ARE WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL TO POSSIBLY NEED TO ADD SOME LOW
CHCS OF PCPN IN FOR THE DAY ON MON. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL ROTATE SOUTH
THROUGH THE ERN PORTION OF THE STATE ON MON. SOME MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT IN ALSO WITH THE TROUGH. MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER SHALLOW IN
NATURE...SO WE ARE THINKING THAT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER RIGHT
NOW FOR THE ERN SECTION OF THE CWFA IS APPROPRIATE AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE QUITE UNEVENTFUL WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
GRADUALLY TREND TOWARDS HIGHER HEIGHTS AND EVEN RIDGING BY NEXT
WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM FROM AROUND ZERO C MONDAY
NIGHT...TO NEAR +10 C NEXT FRI/SAT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
FROM AROUND 60 ON TUESDAY TO AROUND 70 BY NEXT SATURDAY. NEXT
SUNDAY/S HIGHS COULD BE WELL INTO THE 70S WITH BOTH THE ECWMF AND
THE GFS INDICATING +12 C AT 850MB/S.
HAVE DRY CONDITIONS IN ALL FORECAST PERIODS EXCEPT WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE ECWMF STILL BRINGS IN A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT ALONG WITH SOME MOISTURE...70-80PCT IN THE
1000-700MB LAYER. ONLY HAVE A 20PCT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WED
AND WED NIGHT AT THIS POINT. WE WILL WATCH TRENDS WITH THIS WEAK
SYSTEM AND NUDGE PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION ACCORDINGLY.
OVERALL...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE LONG
TERM WITH NO SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OR FRONTAL PASSAGES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
SKIES ARE CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. HOWEVER...SOME
INTERMITTANT MVFR CIGS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
SOUTHERN TAF SITES WHICH ARE CLOSER TO THE RAIN FALLING ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA. THOSE SITES SHOULD EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT
TONIGHT. VFR CIGS AROUND 5K FT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL LOWER SUNDAY
MORNING FROM ONTARIO.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WE WILL HAVE
BREEZY CONDITIONS HOWEVER WITH WINDS JUST A NOTCH BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS LIKELY THROUGH MON. WINDS
SHOULD TEND TO DROP OFF TOWARD THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1157 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
RIVER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 INTO TONIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE UNDER A QUARTER
OF AN INCH. DRY WEATHER THEN RETURNS THROUGH THE WEEK. BRIEF RISES
ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN RIVERS... BUT RIVER FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...99
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...NJJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1157 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
LIGHT RAIN SCATTERED AROUND THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
DIMINISH AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY. SKIES WILL
THEN CLEAR OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE DAY ON SUNDAY...BRINGING
A COOL AND NICE DAY TO THE AREA.
THE FIRST PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY. SOME
CLOUDS MAY ROTATE IN FROM THE NE ON MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES BY JUST EAST OF THE STATE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL THEN
COME ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR
AVERAGE...AND POTENTIALLY ABOVE AVERAGE LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON LIMITED TO AREAS
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY HOLLAND TO JACKSON. LATEST SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR AND RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THIS
IDEA.
THE CLOUD FCST IS A BIT TRICKY NORTH OF I-96 AS LATEST VISIBLE
IMAGE SHOWS SOME THINNING TAKING PLACE IN THE MID CLOUD DECK. WILL
HAVE SKIES BECOMING PTLY TO MSTLY SUNNY UP NORTH BUT REMAINING
MOSTLY CLOUDY NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-96. WARMEST HIGH TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD WEST OF HIGHWAY 131 AND NORTH OF I-96 WHERE
READINGS MAY APPROACH LATER TODAY 60 DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF
CLEARING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
THE ONLY REAL CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS DEALING WITH THE RAIN
CHCS DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM TRYING TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA.
THE TREND IN THE LATEST DATA ALL POINTS TOWARD ALMOST ALL
OF THE RAIN MISSING THE CWFA AFTER THE LINGERING LIGHT RAIN EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE AREA ON THE WRN
FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW NEAR MAINE HAS TRENDED QUICKER/STRONGER AND
IS DEFLECTING THE PLAINS LOW FURTHER SOUTH. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
APPEARS TO SUPPORT THE LIMIT IN NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE LOW IN THE
PLAINS. WE HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-94.
ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. WE WILL SEE A QUIET AND DRY
PERIOD SETTLE IN FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A
MILDER DAY ON SUN WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT A COUPLE OF NIGHTS/MORNINGS WITH SOME FROST AND POSSIBLE
HEADLINES FOR LOCATIONS IN THE GROWING SEASON ALREADY AS TEMPS WILL
BE DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S. ENOUGH WIND MAY REMAIN UP SUN NIGHT TO
PREVENT FROST DEVELOPMENT.
WE ARE WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL TO POSSIBLY NEED TO ADD SOME LOW
CHCS OF PCPN IN FOR THE DAY ON MON. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL ROTATE SOUTH
THROUGH THE ERN PORTION OF THE STATE ON MON. SOME MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT IN ALSO WITH THE TROUGH. MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER SHALLOW IN
NATURE...SO WE ARE THINKING THAT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER RIGHT
NOW FOR THE ERN SECTION OF THE CWFA IS APPROPRIATE AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE QUITE UNEVENTFUL WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
GRADUALLY TREND TOWARDS HIGHER HEIGHTS AND EVEN RIDGING BY NEXT
WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM FROM AROUND ZERO C MONDAY
NIGHT...TO NEAR +10 C NEXT FRI/SAT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
FROM AROUND 60 ON TUESDAY TO AROUND 70 BY NEXT SATURDAY. NEXT
SUNDAY/S HIGHS COULD BE WELL INTO THE 70S WITH BOTH THE ECWMF AND
THE GFS INDICATING +12 C AT 850MB/S.
HAVE DRY CONDITIONS IN ALL FORECAST PERIODS EXCEPT WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE ECWMF STILL BRINGS IN A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT ALONG WITH SOME MOISTURE...70-80PCT IN THE
1000-700MB LAYER. ONLY HAVE A 20PCT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WED
AND WED NIGHT AT THIS POINT. WE WILL WATCH TRENDS WITH THIS WEAK
SYSTEM AND NUDGE PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION ACCORDINGLY.
OVERALL...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE LONG
TERM WITH NO SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OR FRONTAL PASSAGES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 754 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
VFR WEATHER IS FORECAST BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN. THE LOWER CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE TAF SITES TODAY. CEILINGS OF 4000-7000FT AT DAYBREAK SHOULD
LIFT TO 8000-10000FT THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SCATTER AND CLEAR
THIS EVENING. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
WINDS FROM THE EAST AT 8-15 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY BECOMING
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUBSIDING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WE WILL HAVE
BREEZY CONDITIONS HOWEVER WITH WINDS JUST A NOTCH BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS LIKELY THROUGH MON. WINDS
SHOULD TEND TO DROP OFF TOWARD THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1157 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
RIVER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 INTO TONIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE UNDER A QUARTER
OF AN INCH. DRY WEATHER THEN RETURNS THROUGH THE WEEK. BRIEF RISES
ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN RIVERS... BUT RIVER FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...NJJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1146 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
LIGHT RAIN SCATTERED AROUND THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
DIMINISH AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY. SKIES WILL
THEN CLEAR OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE DAY ON SUNDAY...BRINGING
A COOL AND NICE DAY TO THE AREA.
THE FIRST PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY. SOME
CLOUDS MAY ROTATE IN FROM THE NE ON MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES BY JUST EAST OF THE STATE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL THEN
COME ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR
AVERAGE...AND POTENTIALLY ABOVE AVERAGE LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON LIMITED TO AREAS
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY HOLLAND TO JACKSON. LATEST SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR AND RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THIS
IDEA.
THE CLOUD FCST IS A BIT TRICKY NORTH OF I-96 AS LATEST VISIBLE
IMAGE SHOWS SOME THINNING TAKING PLACE IN THE MID CLOUD DECK. WILL
HAVE SKIES BECOMING PTLY TO MSTLY SUNNY UP NORTH BUT REMAINING
MOSTLY CLOUDY NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-96. WARMEST HIGH TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD WEST OF HIGHWAY 131 AND NORTH OF I-96 WHERE
READINGS MAY APPROACH LATER TODAY 60 DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF
CLEARING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
THE ONLY REAL CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS DEALING WITH THE RAIN
CHCS DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM TRYING TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA.
THE TREND IN THE LATEST DATA ALL POINTS TOWARD ALMOST ALL
OF THE RAIN MISSING THE CWFA AFTER THE LINGERING LIGHT RAIN EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE AREA ON THE WRN
FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW NEAR MAINE HAS TRENDED QUICKER/STRONGER AND
IS DEFLECTING THE PLAINS LOW FURTHER SOUTH. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
APPEARS TO SUPPORT THE LIMIT IN NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE LOW IN THE
PLAINS. WE HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-94.
ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. WE WILL SEE A QUIET AND DRY
PERIOD SETTLE IN FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A
MILDER DAY ON SUN WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT A COUPLE OF NIGHTS/MORNINGS WITH SOME FROST AND POSSIBLE
HEADLINES FOR LOCATIONS IN THE GROWING SEASON ALREADY AS TEMPS WILL
BE DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S. ENOUGH WIND MAY REMAIN UP SUN NIGHT TO
PREVENT FROST DEVELOPMENT.
WE ARE WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL TO POSSIBLY NEED TO ADD SOME LOW
CHCS OF PCPN IN FOR THE DAY ON MON. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL ROTATE SOUTH
THROUGH THE ERN PORTION OF THE STATE ON MON. SOME MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT IN ALSO WITH THE TROUGH. MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER SHALLOW IN
NATURE...SO WE ARE THINKING THAT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER RIGHT
NOW FOR THE ERN SECTION OF THE CWFA IS APPROPRIATE AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE QUITE UNEVENTFUL WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
GRADUALLY TREND TOWARDS HIGHER HEIGHTS AND EVEN RIDGING BY NEXT
WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM FROM AROUND ZERO C MONDAY
NIGHT...TO NEAR +10 C NEXT FRI/SAT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
FROM AROUND 60 ON TUESDAY TO AROUND 70 BY NEXT SATURDAY. NEXT
SUNDAY/S HIGHS COULD BE WELL INTO THE 70S WITH BOTH THE ECWMF AND
THE GFS INDICATING +12 C AT 850MB/S.
HAVE DRY CONDITIONS IN ALL FORECAST PERIODS EXCEPT WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE ECWMF STILL BRINGS IN A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT ALONG WITH SOME MOISTURE...70-80PCT IN THE
1000-700MB LAYER. ONLY HAVE A 20PCT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WED
AND WED NIGHT AT THIS POINT. WE WILL WATCH TRENDS WITH THIS WEAK
SYSTEM AND NUDGE PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION ACCORDINGLY.
OVERALL...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE LONG
TERM WITH NO SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OR FRONTAL PASSAGES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 754 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
VFR WEATHER IS FORECAST BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN. THE LOWER CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE TAF SITES TODAY. CEILINGS OF 4000-7000FT AT DAYBREAK SHOULD
LIFT TO 8000-10000FT THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SCATTER AND CLEAR
THIS EVENING. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
WINDS FROM THE EAST AT 8-15 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY BECOMING
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUBSIDING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WE WILL HAVE
BREEZY CONDITIONS HOWEVER WITH WINDS JUST A NOTCH BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS LIKELY THROUGH MON. WINDS
SHOULD TEND TO DROP OFF TOWARD THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015
RIVER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
BE UNDER A HALF INCH. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. BRIEF RISES ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN
RIVERS... BUT RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...NJJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
137 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015
FLOW ALOFT BRIEFLY HAS BECOME WESTERLY WHICH IS ALLOWING WARM
ADVECTION OCCURRING NORTH OF WEAK SFC WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA TO AFFECT FAR WESTERN GREAT LAKES. LOW-LEVELS BLO H85 PER
12Z SOUNDINGS FM GRB/INL/MPX REMAIN QUITE DRY...BUT MOISTURE AND
WARM ADVECTION MAINLY AT H7 IS DRIVING AREA OF SCT LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER NORTHWEST WI. EVEN SOME SNOW WAS REPORTED IN NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA EARLIER TODAY AS TEMPS WERE IN THE 30S AS THE PRECIP BEGAN.
BASED ON WHERE RAP/NAM SHOW NOSE OF H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THIS
EVENING...SOME OF THE SHRA OVER NORTHWEST WI MAY CLIP SW UPR
MICHIGAN THROUGH MIDNIGHT. GREATEST CHANCES FM IRONWOOD TO IRON
RIVER. WEAK FORCING ALOFT AND PERSISTENT DRY LOW-LEVELS WILL
PROHIBIT THE PRECIP FM MAKING IT VERY FAR TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THOSE AREAS. LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS...SHOWING
ANY SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY AT 1KM OF NOTE FADING AS IT MOVES INTO
SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. AS TEMPS COOL ENOUGH IN BLYR AFTER SUNSET...MAY
SEE RAIN TRY TO TURN TO SNOW BRIEFLY BEFORE THE WANING FORCING
ALLOWS THIS PRECIP TO END. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN A
COATING OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IF IT OCCURS AT ALL. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL
BE COOLEST IN THE EAST /UPR TEENS TO LOW 20S/ CLOSER TO SFC HIGH AND
WHERE SKIES STAY MOSTLY CLEAR. ELSEWHERE EXPECT READINGS IN UPR 20S
TO MID 30S...WARMEST WEST.
MID CLOUDS GRADUALLY FADE AWAY ON SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FM HUDSON BAY. NORTHERLY GRADIENT WINDS TIED INTO THE HIGH
WILL KEEP AREAS NEAR LK SUPERIOR SHORE STUCK IN THE 30S DESPITE THE
INCREASING SUNSHINE. WARMEST TEMPS INTO THE LOW 50S WILL BE ALONG WI
BORDER AND ALSO NEAR LK MICHIGAN WITH NORTH WINDS COMING OFF THE
LAND OF EAST HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015
SAT NIGHT AND SUN...SFC RIDGING AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE THE WRN GREAT LAKES AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD MN
AND NW ONTARIO AND TROUGH LINGERS FROM NRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
ERN GREAT LAKES. WITH LIGHT NE TO N LOW LEVEL FLOW...TEMPS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE HIGHS WILL
REACH ONLY INTO THE LOWER 40S. READINGS TO AROUND 50 WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE SOUTH HALF.
THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE S INTO UPPER MI ON MON...SO MON
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUN. HOWEVER...WITH THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENING
AND A SLIGHT MODERATION OF AIR MASS...MAX TEMPS MON SHOULD BE
SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN SUN...ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS MON NIGHT. AS MID/UPPER RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE
ROCKIES...THIS WAVE MAY END UP DIVING SE OR S TOWARD A SRN TROF OVER
TX/LWR MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION PER 12Z RUNS OF GFS AND GEM AND
23/12Z ECMWF...RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY WEATHER HERE. THE 24/00Z
AND 24/12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH THE
SHORTWAVE SHOWING A MORE AGGRESSIVE EASTWARD PROGRESSION BEFORE
DIVING THE SHORTWAVE SE. THIS SOLN MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SHRA
SPREADING INTO UPPER MI TUE INTO WED MORNING. GIVEN THAT LATEST
ECMWF STILL SHOWS THE MORE AGGRESSIVE EASTWARD PROGRESSION WITH
SHORTWAVE WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SHRA OVER THE CWA TUE
INTO WED. CAA IN N-NE FLOW AHEAD OF BUILDING SFC HIGH FM CANADA AS
DEPICTED BY 12Z ECMWF WL KEEP TEMPS COOLER WED INTO WED NIGHT
PROBABLY SIMILAR TO EXPECTED BELOW NORMAL READINGS THIS WEEKEND.
THU-FRI...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION AND SINCE BOTH
12Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED FARTHER NORTH WITH SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA EXPECT GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. GENERAL TREND OF 00Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS
FOR UPSTREAM MID-UPR LVL RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS TO BE A BIT MORE
PRONOUNCED WHICH RESULTS IN A SHARPER NW FLOW DEVELOPING INTO THE
UPPER LAKES. THIS WOULD TEMPER THE WARMUP INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES
FOR LATE WEEK AND MAY RESULT IN TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL INSTEAD OF
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE QUITE A BIT OF CLDS EARLY THIS MRNG WELL TO THE
N OF A WARM FNT IN THE UPR MIDWSET...A DRY LLVL NE FLOW OUT OF HI
PRES OVER NW ONTARIO WL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL 3 TAF SITES
THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 241 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FACTOR OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL THE
WINDS WILL STAY AT OR BLO 20 KTS. THE ONE MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR WHERE EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS ARE
EXPECTED AS STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE AREA INITIALLY BUILDS OVER THE
REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1118 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
.UPDATE...NEWLY ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
MY SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES GENERALLY EAST OF I-55. THIS IS THANKS TO
ANOTHER COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND TRACKING TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST. IT IS IN THIS
AREA WHERE THE AIRMASS HAS BEEN VIRTUALLY UNTOUCHED BY LAST NIGHTS
STORMS AND SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LIKELY HAS BEEN LAYED OUT OVER THE
REGION. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THERE IS PLENTY OF LAPSE
RATE DOWN IN THIS REGION WITH VERTICAL TOTALS AROUND 28-30C. WHILE
LOWER LEVEL SHEAR ISNT HUGE...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS THAT COULD BRING SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY GONE OUT TO OUR SOUTH WHERE THE
STRONGEST...MOST ORGANIZED CONVECTION CURRENTLY IS AND IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION FOR THIS TO MOVE INTO MY SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS DAYTIME HEATING HELPS CONTRIBUTE TO
MAKING THE ATMOSPHERE MORE UNSTABLE. CURRENT LIMITED OUTLOOK IN THE HWO
AND GRAPHICS APPEAR REASONABLE. THE HRRR AGAIN SEEMS TO HANDLE THE
ONGOING ACTIVITY WELL THIS MORNING AND SHOWS A FEW BETTER CONVECTIVE
CELLS IN MY FAR SOUTH THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE EXITING
BEFORE 00Z. FURTHER NORTH...THE ATMOSPHERE...WHILE STILL MOIST...IS
MORE STABLE FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND SHOULD BE LIMITED IN THE
AMOUNT OF STORM ACTIVITY WE SEE. GOING FORECAST HANDLES MUCH OF THIS
WELL AND ONLY INCREASED POPS IN THE SOUTH WHERE RAIN APPEARS
IMMINENT. /28/
&&
.AVIATION...VERY MOIST LOWER LEVELS ARE KEEPING PLENTY OF IFR
CATEGORY STRATUS AROUND THIS MORNING...BUT HEATING SHOULD MIX CIGS
UP INTO VFR CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING AND BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TSRA CONTAINING HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE HBG/PIB AREA WHERE A CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX OVER SRN/CNTRL LA WILL MOVE EAST AND BRING TSRA AND LOWER
CIGS/VSBY DURING THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...IFR/LIFR CATEGORY STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP MAINLY
ALONG/S OF THE TVR-JAN-MEI CORRIDOR. THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER SHOULD
MIX OUT QUICKLY BY MID MORNING. /EC/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...IT HAS BEEN AN ACTIVE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE TWENTY...AS RESIDENTS OF THE
LOWER MS VALLEY HAVE HAD TO DEAL WITH A BOWING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH POCKETS OF VERY STRONG WINDS. THERE WAS ALSO A HANDFUL OF RADAR
AND REPORTED DAMAGE SIGNATURES SUGGESTIVE OF BRIEF TORNADOES
SPINNING UP WITH SOME OF THE BOWING LINE SEGMENTS...BUT WE WILL HAVE
TO WAIT UNTIL LATER TODAY TO START SURVEY EFFORTS WHICH MAY OR MAY
NOT CONFIRM TORNADO TOUCHDOWNS. AS I WRITE THE TAIL END OF THIS LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ABOUT TO EXIT INTO ALABAMA WITH A REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH TOWARD THE HIGHWAY 84
CORRIDOR. TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 106 STILL IN EFFECT FOR A FEW
COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL MS WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED VERY SHORTLY
AFTER AFOREMENTIONED LINE ENTIRELY CLEARS TO THE EAST.
DESPITE THE BULK OF STORMS EXITING EARLY THIS MORNING THE FORECAST
FOR OUR REGION TODAY WILL BE TRICKY OWING TO THE FACT THAT THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE STILL HAS TO PASS
THROUGH THE AREA BEFORE EVENING. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE GRADUALLY VEERING THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH IN GENERAL WILL
HAVE THE EFFECT OF LOWERING MOISTURE LEVELS (ALTHOUGH MAYBE NOT
RIGHT AT THE SURFACE). BEST MOISTURE DEPTH AND USABLE INSTABILITY
(WHICH COULD BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE CONSIDERING COLD TEMPS ALOFT) WILL
RESIDE SOUTH OF I-20 WITH THE LINGERING EFFECT OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE LEFT IN THE WAKE OF OVERNIGHT STORMS PERHAPS ACTING AS A
TRIGGER FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THOSE PARTS. ANY DEEP
CONVECTION THAT GETS GOING IN THE UNSTABLE AND SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
WILL POTENTIALLY BE TROUBLE AND WORTH OF KEEPING A MENTION OF SEVERE
POTENTIAL IN SOUTHERN ZONES FOR PRIMARILY THE RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL. FURTHER NORTH THE DRYING MID LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BE A CONSIDERABLE HINDRANCE TO DEEP...VIGOROUS...CONVECTION AND IT
IS MOST LIKELY THOSE AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...IT
IS WORTH NOTING A ONE OR TWO HIRES MODEL RUNS HAS PRODUCED A STRAY
POTENT STORM ACROSS THE NORTH DESPITE THE MOISTURE DEFICIENCIES SO
IT IS AN ASPECT OF THE FORECAST THAT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
EXPECT ALL LINGERING LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO DIE IN THE EARLY
EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL STILL
REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH SO TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN QUITE
MILD.
ON SUNDAY HIGHER CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING LATER IN THE DAY WITH
THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE CURRENT SYSTEM FINALLY COMING INTO
NORTHERN ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. BUT EVEN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS
FRONT TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK WELL UP INTO THE 80S IN MOST AREAS
(WHICH SHOULD PROBABLY MAKE FOR THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR).
SOME LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR COULD EVEN
MANAGE TO HIT THE 90 DEGREE MARK.
ON SUNDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE
PLAINS WILL BEGIN TRYING TO INITIATE MOISTURE RETURN UP INTO OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES NEAR THE INCOMING FRONT (WHICH SHOULD STALL BY LATER
IN THE NIGHT). A FEW OUTLYING MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT DECAYING STORM
CLUSTERS RIDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY TOWARD OUR
REGION BEFORE DAYBREAK MONDAY ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE. POPS KEPT
AT NO MORE THAN 20 PERCENT THOUGH CONSIDERING THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION
IS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY UNTIL AT LEAST THE DAYTIME MONDAY. /BB/
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED IS
ON RAIN CHANCES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
TO BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE
BROAD TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS WITH
RIDGING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. A CLOSED OFF MID/UPPER LOW WILL
TRACK SLOWLY FROM THE TX PANHANDLE MONDAY INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY
WEDNESDAY. WITH THE TROUGH DIGGING RATHER FAR TO THE SOUTH...THE
SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO FOLLOW A MORE SOUTHERLY PATH THAN RECENT
SYSTEMS...DEVELOPING CLOSE TO THE COAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND
TRACKING TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OFF THE MS/AL COAST BY TUESDAY
NIGHT.
AS DISTURBANCES PINWHEEL AROUND THE UPPER LOW...SHOWERS WILL SPREAD
BACK INTO THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.
EVEN BETTER RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO EXIST MONDAY NIGHT OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THE SURFACE
CYCLONE SHIFTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS WE REMAIN ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE LOW TRACK...SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY
LIMITED THOUGH THUNDER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THANKS TO ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND RESPECTABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. AS MENTIONED IN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL CONVECTION
TO LIMIT ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR AREA DURING A PORTION OF THIS TIME
FRAME.
PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA. AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...GUIDANCE
SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT ON UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE COUNTRY...WITH A BROAD SURFACE HIGH BUILDING OVER OUR AREA
BRINGING DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. /DL/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 85 67 88 61 / 37 11 6 15
MERIDIAN 83 66 87 59 / 43 13 6 12
VICKSBURG 85 66 87 62 / 34 10 7 19
HATTIESBURG 85 68 90 65 / 96 11 6 15
NATCHEZ 85 67 87 64 / 95 8 5 19
GREENVILLE 85 63 82 58 / 14 7 7 19
GREENWOOD 85 62 83 56 / 14 9 6 14
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
28/EC/BB/DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1113 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1113 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
Have sent a small update to the forecast to account for precipitation
trends and where the best chances for renewed convection may exist
this afternoon. Surface analysis shows the surface low basically over
the KC metro with a warm front extending eastward roughly along the
MO river. This boundary is going to need to be watched for possible
renewed convection. The NAM and the RAP both show strong convergence
along this boundary later today with the NAM showing decent buildup
of instability right along the boundary. Cold 500mb temperatures of
-15C to -17C will aid in stretching any potential updraft. These
parameters are favorable for potential funnels this afternoon.
However there are some weaknesses. The position/orientation of the
surface low nearly under to potentially behind the 500mb low and the
opening of the upper low itself may be problematic for these hard to
predict events. Given the strength of the convergence along the
boundary and the strong shearing associated with boundary, if an
updraft can root on the boundary, I would not be surprised to reports
of funnel clouds stream in. The greatest potential for this will be
roughly along the I-70 corridor in our eastern zones. Have increased
PoPs in this area based short term model trends for the afternoon and
then quickly dissipate them this evening when any surface heating is
lost.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
Remnants of Friday`s severe weather across central Kansas is
currently moving through the area, and is rather weak. Scattered
thunderstorms are located across most of northwest Missouri and
northeast Kansas, but lack of any appreciable instability has kept
these storms from becoming more than a brief shower as they roll
through. Surface analysis around 08z indicates that the surface low
is still to the west of the forecast area, and that is also
represented by general southeasterly surface winds across most of
the area. While the sun is still down these showers will remain
relatively light, but as the day wears on and the mid level trough -
which is currently stacked on top of the aforementioned low just
west of here - rolls through the area more scattered showers will
form. There should be a slightly higher level of instability across
the area today, with the cooler temperatures associated with the mid
level trough overhead. So, some storms could grow tall and produce
some small hail. As the mid level trough moves through, it generally
opens up and loses some of its organization. The areas of low
pressure within the column also become a bit disjointed through the
day, so a traditional cold core thunderstorm/funnel day does not
appear to be in the cards, but a few storms through the day could
produce some small hail, and periods of heavy rain and gusty winds.
The focus for thunderstorm activity will be along a sagging cold
front that will drop south along with the surface low. The enhanced
convergence along that boundary should aid in getting storms fired
up. The boundary will initially be located north of the forecast
area, but by noon should be located along/near Interstate 70. By
tonight the cold front will be located south of the area, with a
surface ridge nosing in. This will effectively scour out the
moisture, and end any precipitation chances, likely by tonight.
With the cool dry air working its way into the area the next few
nights could be chilly, with lows in the upper 30s along the IA/MO
border, and 40s farther south. But with good insolation through the
day highs for the rest of the weekend and into next week will follow
a gradual warming trend, with 60s anticipated through early next
week, then well into the 70s by late next week. With shortwave
ridging over the area, despite the warmer and moister air moving in
through the late part of the week mid level ascent will be lacking
and low level convergence triggers will be absent, thus a dry
forecast is on tap throughout the next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 547 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in and around the
aviation terminals through at least the mid morning hours before
moving out of the area. Expect ceilings to bounce between MVFR and
VFR through that time period, with a gradual deterioration to
prevailing MVFR conditions up on frontal passage around 16z. Expect
the stratus to remain over the area through the remainder of the
forecast period. Guidance does suggest that CIGs will come down to
IFR levels late in the forecast period, but for now will keep things
in MVFR.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDB
DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1132 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY BEFORE 08Z...AND THEN RAIN CHANCES LINGERING
ON SATURDAY. SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT MID AFTERNOON SHOWED TWO LOW PRESSURE CENTERS.
ONE WAS OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND THE OTHER WAS OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. THE FIRST LOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AND TRACK INTO
NORTHWEST MISSOURI BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HAD MOVED NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S AT MANY LOCATIONS. LATEST SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS
SHOWED THE MIXED LAYER CAPE AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL KANSAS TO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THEN INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. EFFECTIVE
SHEAR VALUES AS OF 19Z WERE MOSTLY LESS THAN 30 KNOTS LOCALLY.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE MOSTLY 7.5 TO 8.5 DEGREES C PER KM.
EXPECT THAT STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN CONTINUE FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
RECENT HRRR AND RAP MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THAT.
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE MAINLY HAIL AND THAT MAINLY IN OUR
FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AS STORMS LIFT/MOVE NORTHEAST FROM KANSAS.
THERE IS ALSO SOME THREAT OF HAIL WITH STORMS THAT MAY AFFECT
PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR PCPN AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE IS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...BUT ALL AREAS COULD SEE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.
ON SATURDAY...PCPN SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING
THE MORNING. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON...
MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST IOWA. OTHERWISE...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIMIT HEATING...SO KEPT MOST HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. A
CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AT
THE START OF THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL TRACK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND
OPEN UP THROUGH MID WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY DRY...BUT AT THIS
TIME PCPN CHANCES SEEMED TO BE 14 PERCENT OR LESS FOR ANY GIVEN
PERIOD. HIGHS WILL START OUT IN THE 60S MONDAY/TUESDAY...THEN WARM
TO THE 70S BY THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY NEAR 80 BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES AS AN UPPER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES OVERHEAD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
OCCASSIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...KERN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
340 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT MAINLY
THIS EVENING. VERY STRONG WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOJAVE DESERT CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND HAZE. GUSTY NORTH
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND COMMENCING DURING THE WORKWEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM DEATH VALLEY N.P - BEATTY - NORTHEAST OF
RACHEL IN LINCOLN COUNTY. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN/MOJAVE DESERT
THIS AFTERNOON.
LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS BAND HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AROUND 20-25 MPH. THAT WOULD PLACE THE LINE THROUGH THE
PAHRUMP VALLEY BETWEEN 4-6 PM AND THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY BETWEEN 5 AND
7 PM. NORTHERN SEGMENT OF THE LINE WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS LINCOLN
COUNTY WITH THE LINE FORECAST TO CLEAR LINCOLN COUNTY BETWEEN 6-7
PM. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LAST TO CLEAR THE LAKE MEAD NRA AND MOHAVE
COUNTY WHICH WON`T OCCUR UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH, SMALL
HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.
HIGH WIND WARNING PANNING OUT IN THE THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT OF
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AS WE HAVE SEEN WIND GUSTS AT FORT IRWIN AND
BARSTOW-DAGGETT IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. WILL KEEP HIGH WIND WARNING AND
WIND ADVISORY POSTED UNTIL 11 PM PDT.
AN UPPER LOW WILL FORM OVER NEW MEXICO SUNDAY KEEPING THE REGION
UNDER A COOL NORTH FLOW. IN ADDITION TO THE THOSE WIND PRODUCTS
ALREADY OUT ADDED A WIND ADVISORY FOR POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS
FOR ESMERALDA/CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO,
DECIDED TO ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LAKE MEAD NRA
SOUTHWARD TO LAKE HAVASU. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVER
NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY WITHIN AN AREA OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WOULD BE OVER EXTREME EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY
AND EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY EARLY BEFORE DRY CONDITIONS SET IN. EXPECT
GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 20-30 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS LIKELY ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. WILL KEEP AN EYE
ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIND HEADLINE FOR THE RIVER ZONES. BREEZY
NORTH WINDS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY, YET LIGHTER THAN SUNDAY.
STRONGEST GUSTS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
WINDS WILL BE WEAKER AND TREND TOWARD TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FULLY TAKES CONTROL.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND MUCH WARMER THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMBING ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCE IN STRENGTH
AND TIMING, BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST /PERHAPS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRIDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY
LAST INTO THE WEEKEND, AS SOME WEAK TROUGHING LINGERS ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. FOR NOW, IT APPEARS ANY MOISTURE WITH THIS TROUGH IS
EXTREMELY LIMITED AND SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEARING THE
PAHRUMP VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EAST TOWARD THE LAS VEGAS
VALLEY AFTER 4 PM. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AROUND
THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY IMPACTING ALL CORRIDORS THROUGH ABOUT 7 PM THIS
EVENING. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL GET DIFFICULT TO FORECAST WITH NEAR
BY STORMS SO OPTED FOR A VARIABLE GROUPING IN THE TAF. SOME BLOWING
DUST COULD ALSO BRING A REDUCTION IN THE VISIBILITY. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO MENTION THE LOWER VISIBILITY. AFTER THE
STORMS CLEAR WINDS SHOULD SETTLE INTO A WESTERLY DIRECTION BEFORE
GOING MORE NORTHWESTERLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
.FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE MOJAVE DESERT EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA. WINDS OF 20 TO 30
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 EXPECTED WITH EVEN STRONGER WINDS IN THE KDAG
AREA AND FAR WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT WHERE GUSTS WILL EXCEED 50KTS.
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST LIKELY WITH DANGEROUS CROSSWINDS ON NORTH-
SOUTH ORIENTED RUNWAYS. FURTHER NORTH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TSTORMS
LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN MAINLY NORTH OF I-15 THROUGH
00Z. SHOWERS EXPAND ACROSS NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND FAR SOUTHERN NEVADA
AFTER 00Z AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ACCORDING TO
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PIERCE
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...OUTLER
LONG TERM...PADDOCK
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
801 PM PDT FRI APR 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. ALSO ON SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AND MOST
AREAS WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SATURDAY EVENING
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO VALLEY FLOORS AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO
TAPER OFF. COOL AND DRY ON SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...LOWERED SNOW LEVELS FOR TONIGHT BASED ON REPORTS OF SNOW
REACHING THE GROUND IN WELLS. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SPOTTY FROM THIS POINT ON AND LITTLE IF ANY
VALLEY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED SO NO HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY. RCM
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 326 PM /
SYNOPSIS...VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TODAY AND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. ALSO ON SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AND MOST
AREAS WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SATURDAY EVENING
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO VALLEY FLOORS AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO
TAPER OFF. COOL AND DRY ON SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. CURRENTLY...A SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA. THIS SHOWS UP NICELY ON THE WATER
VAPOR. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH THE
EVENING...DEVELOPING/MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS
AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. ANY ONE SHOWER COULD DROP
~0.25 INCHES OF RAIN. THE HRRR SHOWS CONVECTION ENDING AROUND 00Z
TO 03Z FROM WEST TO EAST.
WE WILL HAVE A BRIEF BREAK FROM SHOWERS LATER THIS EVENING...BUT
THAT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT WAVE DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH IS MUCH STRONGER AND IS NEGATIVELY TILTED.
DUE TO THE NEGATIVE TILT OF THE TROUGH...THE MODELS MAY BE A TAD
TOO QUICK WITH THE TROUGH. THEREFORE...THE HIGHEST QPF/SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE IN WHITE PINE AND NE NYE COUNTIES. ISOLATED TS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 95. SNOW
LEVELS WILL START OUT ABOVE 7000FT...BUT WILL LOWER TO MOST
VALLEY FLOORS BETWEEN 5500-6500FT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SNOW LEVELS IN FAR NW NV WILL START OUT AROUND 6500FT AND LOWER
TO 5000FT BY SATURDAY EVENING. EXPECTING LITTLE...IF ANY...IMPACTS
IN THE VALLEYS. THE COLD AIR WILL BE SLOW TO ARRIVE...AND GIVEN
THE HIGH SUN ANGLE...ROADS SHOULD REMAIN WET. ANY IMPACTS WILL BE
ABOVE 6500FT...BUT WILL STILL BE MINIMAL GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. A
TRACE TO ONE INCH OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE BELOW 6500FT...WITH
SEVERAL INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATION
VALLEYS IN NORTHERN ELKO AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES COULD LOCALLY SEE
UP TO 3 INCHES. LOCALLY A FOOT OF SNOW COULD FALL IN THE HIGHEST
MTNS IN WHITE PINE AND NE NYE COUNTIES.
IN ADDITION...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NW NYE WILL APPROACH WIND ADV CRITERIA DUE TO
PRESSURE GRADIENT/PRESSURE FALLS. MAV/MET GUIDANCE SUPPORTS STRONG
GUSTS AND THIS WILL BE MONITORED FOR AN ADV.
BY SUNDAY MORNING...MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY. A WARMING TREND
WILL COMMENCE ON MONDAY...WHERE 60S/70S WILL BE PREVALENT.
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CWA
BY 18Z TUESDAY FOR A WARMING TREND AND DRY CONDITIONS. SHORTWAVE
PASSING TO THE NORTHWEST FLATTENS THE RIDGE A BIT BUT KEEPS WARM
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 DEGREES
BY WEDNESDAY. 12Z MODELS DIFFER WITH GFS NOW TRYING TO DIG A STRONG
TROF INTO NORTHERN CA WHILE THE EC MUCH WEAKER WITH THIS SHORTWAVE.
STILL...EITHER SOLUTION WOULD KEEP THE CWA DRY...BUT GFS WOULD IMPLY
WINDY CONDITIONS AND SOME INSTABILITY IN CENTRAL NV. UNTIL MODELS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...RIGHT NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD WEAKER EC
MODEL IN KEEPING THE CWA DRY WITH LESS WIND AND STABILITY.
AVIATION...RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE CWA WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING
BRIEFLY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AFTER 10Z AT KWMC...18Z AT KEKO
..AND 20Z AT KELY. THUS ON SATURDAY...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
AT LEAST MVFR AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY IFR AT THESE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
93/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1010 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE WEEKEND AND REMAIN INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 PM SUN...LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES
AS LOW PRESSURE ACCELERATES AWAY FROM THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES IN. SOME LINGERING ISO SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT SO ONGOING FCST LOOKS GOOD.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING ATMOSPHERE DRYING OUT BUT RECENT RAIN
AND TIGHT T-TD GRADIENT OVERNIGHT COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG
ESPECIALLY INLAND. COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION BEHIND COLD FRONT
WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 141 PM SUN...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WILL
BUILD INTO NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM
OVER TODAYS VALUES...BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES...REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT DURING PERIOD
AND HAVE COME IN TO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING OF COASTAL LOW
THAT WILL AFFECT AREA WED-FRI AND WILL BE MAIN WX FEATURE DURING
PERIOD.
MON NIGHT-TUE...FINAL SHRT WV ROTATING AROUND UPR LOW OFF NEW
ENGLAND COAST WILL MOVE THROUGH AREA MON NIGHT INDUCING BRIEF
SECONDARY CAA SURGE. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL EXTEND OVER AREA FROM NW
TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE 5-10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL.
TUE NIGHT-FRIDAY...SHRT WV DIVING INTO NRN PLAINS WILL ACT AS
KICKER TO GET SRN PLAINS UPR LOW MOVING OVER SE US. ALL MAIN OP
MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER NRN GULFMEX AND
TRACK NEAR COASTAL CAROLINAS LATE WED INTO THU...AND OFFSHORE
FRIDAY. 12Z GFS HAS LOW JUST INLAND OF COAST OVER ERN NC THU AFTN
WHILE ECMWF IS JUST OFFSHORE. NAM APPEARS TO BE A OUTLIER WITH
LOW TRACK 18 HOURS FASTER. USED BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST WITH
GFS...ECMWF AND WPC...INDICATING TRACK NEAR COAST THU AND
STRONGEST WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF LOW AS IT DEEPENS OVER WARMER
GULFSTREAM WATERS.
WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MODEL CONFIDENCE...INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
OVER SRN SECTIONS LATE WED...SPREADING N WED NIGHT AND ALL AREAS
FOR THU. INLAND GFS TRACK WOULD RESULT IN BRIEF PERIOD OF WARM
SECTOR CONDITIONS ALONG COAST AND PSBL TSTMS...BUT NOT MENTIONING
AT THIS TIME. PCPN DIMINISHING W TO E THU NIGHT. INDICATING DRY
FCST FOR FRIDAY BUT ECMWF DOES INDICATE PSBL SHOWERS WITH
SECONDARY SHRT WV. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL DURING
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY HIGH TEMPS WED-THU WITH WET CONDITIONS.
FRI NIGHT-SUN...RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HIGH AND DRY
CONDITIONS. TEMPS WARMING BACK INTO MID 70S INLAND SAT AND UPR 70S
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN BACK BTW 00Z
AND 02Z TONIGHT AS DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SLOWLY WORKS IN. GRADUALLY
CLEARING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THEREFORE COULD LEAD TO PATCHY
FOG. HRRR AND NARR INDICATING A SHORT PERIOD OF IFR BR AT TIMES
ESP INLAND TAF SITES KISO/KPGV EARLY MON AM.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...VFR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE NGIHT WITH DRY
WEATHER FORECAST. SUB-VFR PSBL WITH DEVELOPING RAIN WED AND LIKELY
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU WITH WDPRD RAIN ACCOMPANIED BY LOW VSBYS AND
CIGS. GUSTY WINDS LIKELY THU INTO FRI WITH LOW PRES MOVING ALONG
COAST AND THEN OFFSHORE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
AS OF 1010 PM SUN...HAVE CANCELLED ALL SCA EXCEPT FOR THE CENTRAL
WATERS AS WINDS/SEAS CONTINUING TO DIMINISH. LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT AS IT CONTINUES TO DEEPEN SOMEWHAT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS AND SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET FOR THE CENTRAL LEG. AS GRADIENT
RELAXES WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ALL WATERS.
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. GRADIENT WILL HAVE RELAXED SO SPEEDS
AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING OF SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS AREA WED NIGHT
AND THU...AND INCREASED WINDS TO INDICATE SLIGHTY BETTER FCST
CONFIDENCE. STILL SOME DIFFENCES ON TRACK WITH GFS INLAND AND
ECMWF OFF COAST...AND USED BLEND WITH TRACK JUST OFFSHORE.
FOR MON NIGHT-TUE...BRIEF SECONDARY CAA SURGE WILL PRODUCE PERIOD
OF SCA CONDITIONS FOR NRN AND CENTRL WATERS WITH NW WIND AROUND 20
KT AND SEAS AROUND 6 FT OUTER PORTIONS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH WEAK HIGH PRES OVER AREA TUE NIGHT AND
WED...THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRES WED AND
WED NIGHT.
STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY ON BACKSIDE OF LOW AS IT STRENGTHENS
OFFSHORE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR
NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS.
REMAINED CONSERVATIVE WITH SEAS FCST...HOLDING PEAK SEAS 5-8 FT
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CCG
NEAR TERM...CCG/TL
SHORT TERM...CCG
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/TL/BM
MARINE...CCG/JBM/TL/BM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
752 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE WEEKEND AND REMAIN INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM SUN...NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AS LOW PRESSURE
ACCELERATES AWAY FROM THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN. SOME
LINGERING ISO SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING FOR SOUTHERN AREAS OF
THE FA SO FCST LOOKS GOOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING ATMOSPHERE
DRYING OUT BUT RECENT RAIN AND TIGHT T-TD GRADIENT OVERNIGHT COULD
LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY INLAND. COLD AND DRY AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH WILL KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 141 PM SUN...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WILL
BUILD INTO NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM
OVER TODAYS VALUES...BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES...REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT DURING PERIOD
AND HAVE COME IN TO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING OF COASTAL LOW
THAT WILL AFFECT AREA WED-FRI AND WILL BE MAIN WX FEATURE DURING
PERIOD.
MON NIGHT-TUE...FINAL SHRT WV ROTATING AROUND UPR LOW OFF NEW
ENGLAND COAST WILL MOVE THROUGH AREA MON NIGHT INDUCING BRIEF
SECONDARY CAA SURGE. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL EXTEND OVER AREA FROM NW
TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE 5-10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL.
TUE NIGHT-FRIDAY...SHRT WV DIVING INTO NRN PLAINS WILL ACT AS
KICKER TO GET SRN PLAINS UPR LOW MOVING OVER SE US. ALL MAIN OP
MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER NRN GULFMEX AND
TRACK NEAR COASTAL CAROLINAS LATE WED INTO THU...AND OFFSHORE
FRIDAY. 12Z GFS HAS LOW JUST INLAND OF COAST OVER ERN NC THU AFTN
WHILE ECMWF IS JUST OFFSHORE. NAM APPEARS TO BE A OUTLIER WITH
LOW TRACK 18 HOURS FASTER. USED BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST WITH
GFS...ECMWF AND WPC...INDICATING TRACK NEAR COAST THU AND
STRONGEST WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF LOW AS IT DEEPENS OVER WARMER
GULFSTREAM WATERS.
WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MODEL CONFIDENCE...INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
OVER SRN SECTIONS LATE WED...SPREADING N WED NIGHT AND ALL AREAS
FOR THU. INLAND GFS TRACK WOULD RESULT IN BRIEF PERIOD OF WARM
SECTOR CONDITIONS ALONG COAST AND PSBL TSTMS...BUT NOT MENTIONING
AT THIS TIME. PCPN DIMINISHING W TO E THU NIGHT. INDICATING DRY
FCST FOR FRIDAY BUT ECMWF DOES INDICATE PSBL SHOWERS WITH
SECONDARY SHRT WV. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL DURING
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY HIGH TEMPS WED-THU WITH WET CONDITIONS.
FRI NIGHT-SUN...RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HIGH AND DRY
CONDITIONS. TEMPS WARMING BACK INTO MID 70S INLAND SAT AND UPR 70S
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN BACK BTW 00Z
AND 02Z TONIGHT AS DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SLOWLY WORKS IN. GRADUALLY
CLEARING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THEREFORE COULD LEAD TO PATCHY
FOG. HRRR AND NARR INDICATING A SHORT PERIOD OF IFR BR AT TIMES
ESP INLAND TAF SITES KISO/KPGV EARLY MON AM.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...VFR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE NGIHT WITH DRY
WEATHER FORECAST. SUB-VFR PSBL WITH DEVELOPING RAIN WED AND LIKELY
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU WITH WDPRD RAIN ACCOMPANIED BY LOW VSBYS AND
CIGS. GUSTY WINDS LIKELY THU INTO FRI WITH LOW PRES MOVING ALONG
COAST AND THEN OFFSHORE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM SUN...HAVE CANCELLED SCA FOR PAMLICO SOUND AS WINDS
HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW 25 KT. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AS IT
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN SOMEWHAT. NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE
WATERS. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN MODERATELY TIGHTER OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN WATERS DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
AND SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET. AS GRADIENT RELAXES WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. GRADIENT WILL HAVE RELAXED SO SPEEDS
AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING OF SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS AREA WED NIGHT
AND THU...AND INCREASED WINDS TO INDICATE SLIGHTY BETTER FCST
CONFIDENCE. STILL SOME DIFFENCES ON TRACK WITH GFS INLAND AND
ECMWF OFF COAST...AND USED BLEND WITH TRACK JUST OFFSHORE.
FOR MON NIGHT-TUE...BRIEF SECONDARY CAA SURGE WILL PRODUCE PERIOD
OF SCA CONDITIONS FOR NRN AND CENTRL WATERS WITH NW WIND AROUND 20
KT AND SEAS AROUND 6 FT OUTER PORTIONS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH WEAK HIGH PRES OVER AREA TUE NIGHT AND
WED...THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRES WED AND
WED NIGHT.
STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY ON BACKSIDE OF LOW AS IT STRENGTHENS
OFFSHORE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR
NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS.
REMAINED CONSERVATIVE WITH SEAS FCST...HOLDING PEAK SEAS 5-8 FT
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150-
156.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CCG
NEAR TERM...CCG/TL
SHORT TERM...CCG
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/TL/BM
MARINE...CCG/JBM/TL/BM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
546 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH AND WILL BE NEAR OR
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE GETTING SHOVED
SOUTHWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SMALL RISK FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN INTO SUNDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE A STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DRY HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO RETURN BY FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 530 PM SATURDAY...BASED ON LATEST 88D RADAR MOSAIC TRENDS
AND LATEST VIS AND IR SAT IMAGERY TRENDS AND LATEST 18Z VARIOUS
MODEL RUNS...HAVE UPDATED EVENING AND OVERNIGHT POPS AND SKY
CONDITIONS. BASICALLY LOWERING POPS TRENDS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT TO LOW CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED. IN ADDITION...HAVE
SKY CONDITIONS IN THE CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY/VARIABLY CLOUDY TREND
FOR THE EVENING THRU OVERNIGHT. IF SKIES PARTIALLY CLEAR
ENOUGH...FOG COULD BECOME AN ISSUE DURING THE PRE-DAWN SUNDAY
HOURS.
PREVIOUS........................................................
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...SEVERE THREAT HAS BECOME REMOTE FOR THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A STABLE ATMOSPHERE
WITH A SHIELD OF LIGHT AND COOL STRATIFORM RAIN MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AND OUT TO SEA. AT THE SURFACE A DIFFUSE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT IS WAVERING ABOUT WHILE A WARM FRONT MOVES UP
FROM THE SOUTH. OVERALL SURFACE PATTERN IS NOT WELL DEFINED AND
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONG GUIDANCE THE GENERAL TREND IS
TOWARDS WEAKER THAN ANTICIPATED CONVECTION AND SPARSER COVERAGE.
NAM AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT POPS.
CONSIDERING OTHER GUIDANCE ON HAND AND GENERAL UNCERTAINTY WILL
KEEP IN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
BUFKIT AND OTHER DATA SHOW BETTER INSTABILITY SHOWING UP THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SO MAKING CHARACTER OF PRECIP MORE
CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AND WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER.
THE HRRR HAS BEEN VERY HELPFUL TODAY IN DEPICTING COVERAGE AND
TRENDS SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN ON ITS GUIDANCE FOR THE NEAR TERM.
THIS MODEL HAS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS A MORE MODERATE LINE OF CONVECTION
MOVING THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND WARM
FROPA WILL KEEP TEMPS OVERNIGHT ON THE MODERATE SIDE...IN VARIOUS
SHADES OF THE 60S. THIS IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN TODAYS DAYTIME
READINGS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BE SITUATED VERY NEAR OR
JUST N OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. MODEL PROFILES SHOW A DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RELEGATED TO THE LOWEST 3
KFT OR SO IN THE WARM SECTOR. A 50 KT JET WILL BE LOCATED 3-5 KFT
AGL SUNDAY. THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY ON SUN
WHILE THE NAM PORTRAYS MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES UP TO AROUND 1500
J/KG AND THIS SEEMS MUCH MORE REASONABLE. THE INSTABILITY WILL BE
SHRINKING SOUTHWARD WITH TIME AS THE LAST OF THE WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TO CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN WELL OFF
THE NC COAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS ACTUALLY SHOW A STRONG FRONTAL
INVERSION DEVELOPING FROM N TO S...LASTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GRAND STRAND AND SOUTH SANTEE RIVER AREAS BY MID AFTERNOON SUN.
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS NOT HIGH...BUT TRENDS LOOK TO BE ON THE
RIGHT TRACK. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF DRY AIR IN STRONG AND DEEPENING
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WOULD EXPECT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TO BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG OR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM TO INCLUDE HAIL AND/OR STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN REACHES OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE
GREATEST...AS WELL AS PERHAPS WHERE SEABREEZE INTERACTS WITH THE
FRONT. ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL INCLUDE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL SHOW POPS TRENDING LOWER FROM N TO S LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVE HOURS.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROUNDING A RETROGRADING AN UPPER LOW
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL HELP TO REINFORCE THE COOLER AND
DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE FORECAST AREA MON AND MON NIGHT. A
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE MON WILL BE BATTLING THE COOL NW FLOW WITH
850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND 3 DEG C.
HIGHS SUN WILL LIKELY VARY FROM N TO S AND DEPENDING ON CLOUD
COVER...THERE COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS THE
AREA. WILL FORECAST LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH SANTEE
RIVER AREA WITH MID AND UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER...THE
NORTHERN REACHES OF THE AREA COULD BE STYMIED IN THE LOWER 70S
GIVEN THEIR PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY AND GREATER CLOUD COVER.
HIGHS ON SUN WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR THE MOST PART...ONE TO
TWO CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WANING DAYS OF APRIL. AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE FALLING THROUGH THE 40S AND 30S
ON MON AS DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW BUILDS INTO THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS. THE COOLEST NIGHT...MON NIGHT...WILL BE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY....MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A MID LEVEL SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT
THE AREA TO SOME EXTENT FOR MIDWEEK. SEVERAL MODELS KEEP THE
TROUGH MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE OTHERS PHASE THE SYSTEM WITH
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY CREATING A MORE DYNAMIC SYSTEM AND PROLIFIC
RAIN MAKER FOR OUR AREA. UNTIL THE MODELS CONVERGE ON A DEPENDABLE
SOLUTION...PRUDENCE CALLS FOR KEEPING POPS IN THE FORECAST FROM
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST
WHICH WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LIGHT RAIN HAS SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE CWA. THE PRECIP
IS STRATIFORM WITH NO CONVECTION IN THE REGION AT THIS TIME. SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN
BOUNDARIES...WITH MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
PRECIPITATION INDUCED CEILINGS LOWER. TONIGHT...MOST OF THE RAIN
WILL END... WITH LOWER CEILINGS EXPECTED. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE ON
CEILINGS AND PRECIP FOR SUNDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY ON
TOP OF US. SHOULD SEE A GOOD WESTERLY WIND TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST TO OUR NORTH.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SHOWERS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 530 PM SATURDAY...LATEST MODEL RUNS NOT ALL THAT CONVINCING
ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE CURRENT FORECAST WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT SEAS
TRENDS FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WILL HOLD ONTO WHAT IS
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED...INCLUDING HOLDING OUT WITH THE ISSUANCE OF
A POSSIBLE SCEC.
PREVIOUS...................................................
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME SW
TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS WILL
STAY IN THE GENERAL 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH 2 TO 4 FT OF SEAS FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS. IF SO...EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE FROM THE W OR
SW SUN MORNING...THEN VEER TO THE NW AND N AS A FRONT SINKS BACK
TO THE S THROUGH THE DAY. THE FRONT MAY NOT MOVE S OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST WATERS TIL LATE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A MODEST
SURGE SUN NIGHT AND THEN A SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONE MON NIGHT AS A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW RETROGRADING
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST WHEN THE WIND
DIRECTION IS FROM THE N OR NNW...UP TO 15 TO 20 KT MON NIGHT.
SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT MOST OF THE TIME. HOWEVER...EXPECT SEAS TO
BUILD UP TO 5 FT DURING THE SURGES...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
5 FT SEAS MON NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...DESPITE AN INTERESTING AND POSSIBLY
DYNAMIC SYNOPTIC WEATHER SCENARIO AT THE MID LEVELS...THE SURFACE
FEATURES DRIVING THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE RATHER BENIGN IN
COMPARISON. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN A NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY TEN KNOTS OR LESS. FORECAST CHALLENGE THEN ARISES AS
MODELS ARE STILL UNSURE HOW TO HANDLE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OR
UP THE EAST COAST BOTH IN A PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH PERSPECTIVE.
WILL MAINTAIN THE MODEST OFFSHORE FLOW FOR THURSDAY DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH/REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
255 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH AND WILL BE NEAR OR
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE GETTING SHOVED
SOUTHWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SMALL RISK FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN INTO SUNDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE A STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DRY HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO RETURN BY FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...SEVERE THREAT HAS BECOME REMOTE FOR THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A STABLE ATMOSPHERE
WITH A SHIELD OF LIGHT AND COOL STRATIFORM RAIN MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AND OUT TO SEA. AT THE SURFACE A DIFFUSE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT IS WAVERING ABOUT WHILE A WARM FRONT MOVES UP
FROM THE SOUTH. OVERALL SURFACE PATTERN IS NOT WELL DEFINED AND
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONG GUIDANCE THE GENERAL TREND IS
TOWARDS WEAKER THAN ANTICIPATED CONVECTION AND SPARSER COVERAGE.
NAM AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT POPS.
CONSIDERING OTHER GUIDANCE ON HAND AND GENERAL UNCERTAINTY WILL
KEEP IN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
BUFKIT AND OTHER DATA SHOW BETTER INSTABILITY SHOWING UP THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SO MAKING CHARACTER OF PRECIP MORE
CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AND WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER.
THE HRRR HAS BEEN VERY HELPFUL TODAY IN DEPICTING COVERAGE AND
TRENDS SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN ON ITS GUIDANCE FOR THE NEAR TERM.
THIS MODEL HAS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS A MORE MODERATE LINE OF CONVECTION
MOVING THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND WARM
FROPA WILL KEEP TEMPS OVERNIGHT ON THE MODERATE SIDE...IN VARIOUS
SHADES OF THE 60S. THIS IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN TODAYS DAYTIME
READINGS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BE SITUATED VERY NEAR OR
JUST N OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. MODEL PROFILES SHOW A DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RELEGATED TO THE LOWEST 3
KFT OR SO IN THE WARM SECTOR. A 50 KT JET WILL BE LOCATED 3-5 KFT
AGL SUNDAY. THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY ON SUN
WHILE THE NAM PORTRAYS MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES UP TO AROUND 1500
J/KG AND THIS SEEMS MUCH MORE REASONABLE. THE INSTABILITY WILL BE
SHRINKING SOUTHWARD WITH TIME AS THE LAST OF THE WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TO CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN WELL OFF
THE NC COAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS ACTUALLY SHOW A STRONG FRONTAL
INVERSION DEVELOPING FROM N TO S...LASTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GRAND STRAND AND SOUTH SANTEE RIVER AREAS BY MID AFTERNOON SUN.
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS NOT HIGH...BUT TRENDS LOOK TO BE ON THE
RIGHT TRACK. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF DRY AIR IN STRONG AND DEEPENING
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WOULD EXPECT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TO BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG OR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM TO INCLUDE HAIL AND/OR STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN REACHES OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE
GREATEST...AS WELL AS PERHAPS WHERE SEABREEZE INTERACTS WITH THE
FRONT. ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL INCLUDE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL SHOW POPS TRENDING LOWER FROM N TO S LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVE HOURS.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROUNDING A RETROGRADING AN UPPER LOW
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL HELP TO REINFORCE THE COOLER AND
DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE FORECAST AREA MON AND MON NIGHT. A
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE MON WILL BE BATTLING THE COOL NW FLOW WITH
850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND 3 DEG C.
HIGHS SUN WILL LIKELY VARY FROM N TO S AND DEPENDING ON CLOUD
COVER...THERE COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS THE
AREA. WILL FORECAST LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH SANTEE
RIVER AREA WITH MID AND UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER...THE
NORTHERN REACHES OF THE AREA COULD BE STYMIED IN THE LOWER 70S
GIVEN THEIR PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY AND GREATER CLOUD COVER.
HIGHS ON SUN WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR THE MOST PART...ONE TO
TWO CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WANING DAYS OF APRIL. AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE FALLING THROUGH THE 40S AND 30S
ON MON AS DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW BUILDS INTO THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS. THE COOLEST NIGHT...MON NIGHT...WILL BE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY....MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A MID LEVEL SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT
THE AREA TO SOME EXTENT FOR MIDWEEK. SEVERAL MODELS KEEP THE
TROUGH MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE OTHERS PHASE THE SYSTEM WITH
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY CREATING A MORE DYNAMIC SYSTEM AND PROLIFIC
RAIN MAKER FOR OUR AREA. UNTIL THE MODELS CONVERGE ON A DEPENDABLE
SOLUTION...PRUDENCE CALLS FOR KEEPING POPS IN THE FORECAST FROM
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST
WHICH WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LIGHT RAIN HAS SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE CWA. THE PRECIP
IS STRATIFORM WITH NO CONVECTION IN THE REGION AT THIS TIME. SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN
BOUNDARIES...WITH MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
PRECIPITATION INDUCED CEILINGS LOWER. TONIGHT...MOST OF THE RAIN
WILL END... WITH LOWER CEILINGS EXPECTED. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE ON
CEILINGS AND PRECIP FOR SUNDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY ON
TOP OF US. SHOULD SEE A GOOD WESTERLY WIND TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST TO OUR NORTH.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SHOWERS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME SW
TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS WILL
STAY IN THE GENERAL 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH 2 TO 4 FT OF SEAS FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS. IF SO...EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE FROM THE W OR
SW SUN MORNING...THEN VEER TO THE NW AND N AS A FRONT SINKS BACK
TO THE S THROUGH THE DAY. THE FRONT MAY NOT MOVE S OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST WATERS TIL LATE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A MODEST
SURGE SUN NIGHT AND THEN A SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONE MON NIGHT AS A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW RETROGRADING
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST WHEN THE WIND
DIRECTION IS FROM THE N OR NNW...UP TO 15 TO 20 KT MON NIGHT.
SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT MOST OF THE TIME. HOWEVER...EXPECT SEAS TO
BUILD UP TO 5 FT DURING THE SURGES...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
5 FT SEAS MON NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...DESPITE AN INTERESTING AND POSSIBLY
DYNAMIC SYNOPTIC WEATHER SCENARIO AT THE MID LEVELS...THE SURFACE
FEATURES DRIVING THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE RATHER BENIGN IN
COMPARISON. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN A NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY TEN KNOTS OR LESS. FORECAST CHALLENGE THEN ARISES AS
MODELS ARE STILL UNSURE HOW TO HANDLE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OR
UP THE EAST COAST BOTH IN A PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH PERSPECTIVE.
WILL MAINTAIN THE MODEST OFFSHORE FLOW FOR THURSDAY DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...REK/DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
204 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT
BRINGING SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. THE
FRONT WILL STALL BEFORE BEING PUSHED SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT LATE
SUNDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...SEVERE THREAT HAS BECOME REMOTE FOR THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A STABLE ATMOSPHERE
WITH A SHIELD OF LIGHT AND COOL STRATIFORM RAIN MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AND OUT TO SEA. AT THE SURFACE A DIFFUSE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT IS WAVERING ABOUT WHILE A WARM FRONT MOVES UP
FROM THE SOUTH. OVERALL SURFACE PATTERN IS NOT WELL DEFINED AND
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONG GUIDANCE THE GENERAL TREND IS
TOWARDS WEAKER THAN ANTICIPATED CONVECTION AND SPARSER COVERAGE.
NAM AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT POPS.
CONSIDERING OTHER GUIDANCE ON HAND AND GENERAL UNCERTAINTY WILL
KEEP IN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
BUFKIT AND OTHER DATA SHOW BETTER INSTABILITY SHOWING UP THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SO MAKING CHARACTER OF PRECIP MORE
CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AND WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER.
THE HRRR HAS BEEN VERY HELPFUL TODAY IN DEPICTING COVERAGE AND
TRENDS SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN ON ITS GUIDANCE FOR THE NEAR TERM.
THIS MODEL HAS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS A MORE MODERATE LINE OF CONVECTION
MOVING THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND WARM
FROPA WILL KEEP TEMPS OVERNIGHT ON THE MODERATE SIDE...IN VARIOUS
SHADES OF THE 60S. THIS IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN TODAYS DAYTIME
READINGS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH FRONT WILL BE DRAPED FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...POSSIBLY BISECTING THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY...SHORTWAVE WILL BE EXITING OFF INTO
THE OFF SHORE WATERS WITH A STRONG WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN
PLACE ABOVE THE SURFACE. WARM SECTOR TO THE SOUTH OF FRONT WILL BE
IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SFC WHILE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE PRESENT
TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MORE
STABLE COOLER AIR WILL BE PRESENT. TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD SEE DRIER AIR PRESENT AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE.
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING NORTHERN HALF OF
FORECAST AREA CLOUDIER WHILE MOST OF SOUTH CAROLINA WILL SEE FAIR
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. LOOKING AT MOISTURE PROFILES AND SOUNDING
DATA...SHALLOW MOISTURE LOCKED IN EARLY SUNDAY SHOULD BREAK UP AS
MID CLOUDS MOVE IN. TRICKY FORECAST IN TERMS OF CLOUDS AND TEMPS
AS FRONT SHOULD BISECT PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH WARMER
AIR AND MORE SUNSHINE TO THE SOUTH AND CLOUDIER AND COOLER AIR TO
THE NORTH. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO GET PUSHED SOUTH FAIRLY QUICKLY ON
SUNDAY AS SHORTWAVE DIGS DOWN PUSHING COLD FRONT SOUTH. LATEST
MODELS KEEP BEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE NORTH OF FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT BEST CHC OF PCP AS FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT WITH PCP WATER
VALUES ONLY REACHING JUST OVER AN INCH ALONG BOUNDARY BY SUN EVE
AND THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF. CAN NOT RULE
OUT A POSSIBLE HEAVIER SHOWER CLOSER TO THE SHORE WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE COMBINES WITH ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY. TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 80S SOUTH OF FRONT AND
REMAIN CLOSER TO 70 NORTH OF THE FRONT. GFS REMAINS SLOWER TO DROP
FRONT SOUTH AND THEREFORE IS MORE OPTIMISTIC IN TERMS OF SUNSHINE
AND WARMER TEMPS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA SUNDAY WHILE
THE NAM KEEPS CLOUDS AND BRINGS COOLER AIR SOUTH QUICKER LEAVING
COOLER TEMPS OVER MUCH OF AREA EXCEPT EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION.
ONCE FRONT DROPS SOUTH...EXPECT DRY AND COOLER AIR TO ADVECT IN
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
850 TEMPS DROP FROM 14C SUN MORNING DOWN TO 3 C BY MON NIGHT AS
HEIGHTS LOWER AS DEEP TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE EAST COAST. EXPECT
TEMPS CLOSER TO 70 ON MONDAY AS SUNSHINE TRIES TO OFFSET THE CAA.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...A DEEP N-NW FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH TUES AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ON. BY TUES NIGHT INTO
WED A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SPREADING
CLOUDS AND PCP NORTH. BEST CHC OF PCP SHOULD COME WED IN INCREASED
LIFT AND MOISTURE. THIS LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST ON THURS WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS AND PCP UNTIL DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THURS
NIGHT INTO FRI...LEAVING SUNNY AND MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD WITH WARMER AND MOISTER AIR MASS RETURNING ON THURS AS AN ON
SHORE FLOW MAY COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH AS LOW MOVES SOUTH OF
AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LIGHT RAIN HAS SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE CWA. THE PRECIP
IS STRATIFORM WITH NO CONVECTION IN THE REGION AT THIS TIME. SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN
BOUNDARIES...WITH MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
PRECIPITATION INDUCED CEILINGS LOWER. TONIGHT...MOST OF THE RAIN
WILL END... WITH LOWER CEILINGS EXPECTED. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE ON
CEILINGS AND PRECIP FOR SUNDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY ON
TOP OF US. SHOULD SEE A GOOD WESTERLY WIND TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST TO OUR NORTH.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SHOWERS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME SW
TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS WILL
STAY IN THE GENERAL 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH 2 TO 4 FT OF SEAS FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS. IF SO...EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...FRONT WILL BE BISECTING THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY SUNDAY. SW WINDS ON SOUTH SIDE OF
FRONT WILL PUSH SEAS UP TO 3 TO 5 FT THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING AROUND TO THE NW AND NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST AND COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS LATER IN
THE DAY. THE LATEST WNA KEEPS SEAS JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS WITH
PEAK IN SEAS SUN AFTN INTO EARLY EVE. COULD SEE A BRIEF NORTHERLY
SURGE LATE SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH KEEPING
SEAS UP THROUGH SUN NIGHT BUT OVERALL EXPECT NORTHERLY FLOW TO
DIMINISH THROUGH MONDAY....LEAVING SEAS DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT. WILL
SEE ANOTHER BRIEF SURGE IN N-NW WINDS MON NIGHT WITH A MINOR SPIKE
IN SEAS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY... NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO VEER AROUND TO THE EAST BY TUES
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO MIGRATE EAST FROM THE GULF COAST.
EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH TUES...WITH A SLIGHT ON
SHORE PUSH BY TUES NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT AROUND TO THE SE-S
ON WED AS LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST POSSIBLY PASSING DIRECTLY
ACROSS LOCAL WATERS WED NIGHT. SEAS WILL RISE TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE
WED IN INCREASED ON SHORE TO SOUTHERLY PUSH AS LOW MOVES BY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...REK/DL
MARINE...REK/MJC/RGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1255 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
MAIN ISSUE FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE WAS TEMPERATURES AND SKY
COVER. LOWERED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH. LOOKS LIKE
WARMEST AREA COULD BE THE NORTH CENTRAL WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED
AND COULD GET A BIT OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE BEFORE CLOUDING UP
LATER. LOWERED SKY COVER OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER FAR WEST THIS AFTERNOON
BUT THINK ITS A LONG SHOT LATEST WRF SHOWS SHOWERS...MAYBE SOME
THUNDER DISSIPATING AS PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA 23-02 UTC.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1023 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO AN
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SITUATED OVER EASTERN MONTANA. LATEST
MESOSCALE MODELS AND NEW NAM INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING
AROUND TODAY...WITH SHOWERS SLOW TO REACH THE WESTERN BORDER. WILL
BUMP UP SKY COVER AND PUSH BACK POPS CHANCES IN THE WEST UNTIL 21
UTC. LOWERED TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT. MAY NEED TO RE-VISIT
TEMPERATURES WITH THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
NO MAJOR EDITS TO THE GOING FORECAST. STRATUS CONTINUES TO EXPAND
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A MOIST/EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. MODELS TRY
TO ERODE THE CLOUDS AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT
CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SEEM LIKELY. AREAS OF FOG
PERSIST...WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG SOUTHWEST WHERE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MID MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM THIS MORNING IS LOW CLOUD COVER
AND FOG...LEADING TO AVIATION ISSUES. THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TO
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
EASTERLY UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW IS BRINGING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND RESULTING IN VERY LOW STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT. CURRENTLY
ABOUT 2/3 OF NORTH DAKOTA IS COVERED. THE STRATUS DECK SHOULD MAKE
IT ALL THE WAY TO MONTANA THIS MORNING. THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP
INDICATE CLOUD COVER AND FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. AS FORCING BECOMES FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CLOUD CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT AND
BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT.
THE LATEST TREND IN THE MODELS IS TO DELAY PRECIPITATION FROM
ENTERING NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED THE
TRENDS FROM EARLIER FORECAST UPDATES AND PUSHED PRECIP CHANCES
EVEN FURTHER WESTWARD AND DELAYED ONSET. HOWEVER...UNLIKE
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE COULD BE A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE 00 AND 06 UTC MODELS BRING AN AXIS OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS FAR NORTH AS THE
CANADIAN BOARDER. AS SUCH INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT A BAND OF RAIN WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY TOMORROW MORNING. WITH VERY
LITTLE PROGRESSION OF THE MAIN FEATURES (SURFACE LOW...LONG WAVE
TROUGH OUT WEST...ETC.) EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY...SEVERAL HOURS
OF MUCH NEED LIGHT RAIN APPEARS LIKELY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN SLOWLY SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY HIGHLIGHTS THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WITH TWO SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
FOR SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. EMBEDDED S/WV IMPULSE ORIGINATING FROM
A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL ROTATE NORTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THEN GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM AND SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS MY WEST LIFTING NORTHEAST
BY MONDAY 12Z. BEST VERTICAL MOTION WILL OCCUR ALONG A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT INITIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL
MAINTAIN ELEVATED POPS THERE SUNDAY DAYTIME. FRONT STARTS TO
ORIENTATE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...ALLOWING SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
WEST AND SPREAD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BE
MAINLY DRY FOR THIS PERIOD ACROSS MY SOUTHEAST.
FOR EARLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
APPROACHES AND PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE STATE...RE-ENERGIZING THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST. IT WILL BE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
THAT THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK LIKE A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
WEST WITH AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH CENTRAL THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS AS A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 70S...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
A MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...THEN BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. MVFR-IFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN OVER KDIK-KISN THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN SPREAD EAST TO KMOT
AND PROBABLY JUST WEST AND NORTH OF KBIS 12-18Z SUNDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1023 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1023 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO AN
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SITUATED OVER EASTERN MONTANA. LATEST
MESOSCALE MODELS AND NEW NAM INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING
AROUND TODAY...WITH SHOWERS SLOW TO REACH THE WESTERN BORDER. WILL
BUMP UP SKY COVER AND PUSH BACK POPS CHANCES IN THE WEST UNTIL 21
UTC. LOWERED TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT. MAY NEED TO RE-VISIT
TEMPERATURES WITH THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
NO MAJOR EDITS TO THE GOING FORECAST. STRATUS CONTINUES TO EXPAND
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A MOIST/EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. MODELS TRY
TO ERODE THE CLOUDS AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT
CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SEEM LIKELY. AREAS OF FOG
PERSIST...WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG SOUTHWEST WHERE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MID MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM THIS MORNING IS LOW CLOUD COVER
AND FOG...LEADING TO AVIATION ISSUES. THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TO
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
EASTERLY UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW IS BRINGING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND RESULTING IN VERY LOW STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT. CURRENTLY
ABOUT 2/3 OF NORTH DAKOTA IS COVERED. THE STRATUS DECK SHOULD MAKE
IT ALL THE WAY TO MONTANA THIS MORNING. THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP
INDICATE CLOUD COVER AND FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. AS FORCING BECOMES FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CLOUD CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT AND
BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT.
THE LATEST TREND IN THE MODELS IS TO DELAY PRECIPITATION FROM
ENTERING NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED THE
TRENDS FROM EARLIER FORECAST UPDATES AND PUSHED PRECIP CHANCES
EVEN FURTHER WESTWARD AND DELAYED ONSET. HOWEVER...UNLIKE
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE COULD BE A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE 00 AND 06 UTC MODELS BRING AN AXIS OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS FAR NORTH AS THE
CANADIAN BOARDER. AS SUCH INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT A BAND OF RAIN WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY TOMORROW MORNING. WITH VERY
LITTLE PROGRESSION OF THE MAIN FEATURES (SURFACE LOW...LONG WAVE
TROUGH OUT WEST...ETC.) EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY...SEVERAL HOURS
OF MUCH NEED LIGHT RAIN APPEARS LIKELY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN SLOWLY SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY HIGHLIGHTS THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WITH TWO SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
FOR SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. EMBEDDED S/WV IMPULSE ORIGINATING FROM
A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL ROTATE NORTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THEN GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM AND SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS MY WEST LIFTING NORTHEAST
BY MONDAY 12Z. BEST VERTICAL MOTION WILL OCCUR ALONG A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT INITIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL
MAINTAIN ELEVATED POPS THERE SUNDAY DAYTIME. FRONT STARTS TO
ORIENTATE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...ALLOWING SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
WEST AND SPREAD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BE
MAINLY DRY FOR THIS PERIOD ACROSS MY SOUTHEAST.
FOR EARLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
APPROACHES AND PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE STATE...RE-ENERGIZING THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST. IT WILL BE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
THAT THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK LIKE A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
WEST WITH AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH CENTRAL THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS AS A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 70S...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1023 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
LIFR-IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THIS MORNING
WITH A SLOW LIFTING TO MVFR LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WILL REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. MAY SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT THIS
AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING EAST...BUT MAY NEED TO EXTEND IFR-MVFR
CEILINGS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE WEST SATURDAY EVENING BUT REMAIN WEST OF KBIS AND KMOT THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
627 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
NO MAJOR EDITS TO THE GOING FORECAST. STRATUS CONTINUES TO EXPAND
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A MOIST/EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. MODELS TRY
TO ERODE THE CLOUDS AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT
CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SEEM LIKELY. AREAS OF FOG
PERSIST...WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG SOUTHWEST WHERE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MID MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM THIS MORNING IS LOW CLOUD COVER
AND FOG...LEADING TO AVIATION ISSUES. THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TO
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
EASTERLY UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW IS BRINGING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND RESULTING IN VERY LOW STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT. CURRENTLY
ABOUT 2/3 OF NORTH DAKOTA IS COVERED. THE STRATUS DECK SHOULD MAKE
IT ALL THE WAY TO MONTANA THIS MORNING. THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP
INDICATE CLOUD COVER AND FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. AS FORCING BECOMES FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CLOUD CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT AND
BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT.
THE LATEST TREND IN THE MODELS IS TO DELAY PRECIPITATION FROM
ENTERING NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED THE
TRENDS FROM EARLIER FORECAST UPDATES AND PUSHED PRECIP CHANCES
EVEN FURTHER WESTWARD AND DELAYED ONSET. HOWEVER...UNLIKE
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE COULD BE A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE 00 AND 06 UTC MODELS BRING AN AXIS OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS FAR NORTH AS THE
CANADIAN BOARDER. AS SUCH INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT A BAND OF RAIN WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY TOMORROW MORNING. WITH VERY
LITTLE PROGRESSION OF THE MAIN FEATURES (SURFACE LOW...LONG WAVE
TROUGH OUT WEST...ETC.) EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY...SEVERAL HOURS
OF MUCH NEED LIGHT RAIN APPEARS LIKELY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN SLOWLY SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY HIGHLIGHTS THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WITH TWO SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
FOR SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. EMBEDDED S/WV IMPULSE ORIGINATING FROM
A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL ROTATE NORTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THEN GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM AND SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS MY WEST LIFTING NORTHEAST
BY MONDAY 12Z. BEST VERTICAL MOTION WILL OCCUR ALONG A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT INITIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL
MAINTAIN ELEVATED POPS THERE SUNDAY DAYTIME. FRONT STARTS TO
ORIENTATE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...ALLOWING SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
WEST AND SPREAD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BE
MAINLY DRY FOR THIS PERIOD ACROSS MY SOUTHEAST.
FOR EARLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
APPROACHES AND PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE STATE...RE-ENERGIZING THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST. IT WILL BE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
THAT THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK LIKE A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
WEST WITH AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH CENTRAL THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS AS A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 70S...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT KDIK/KJMS...IFR LIKELY AT KBIS/KMOT AND
POSSIBLY AT KISN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL REMAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY. AS A RESULT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE AREA...AND BEGIN TO LIFT/SCATTER WEST
TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
415 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM THIS MORNING IS LOW CLOUD COVER
AND FOG...LEADING TO AVIATION ISSUES. THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TO
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
EASTERLY UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW IS BRINGING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND RESULTING IN VERY LOW STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT. CURRENTLY
ABOUT 2/3 OF NORTH DAKOTA IS COVERED. THE STRATUS DECK SHOULD MAKE
IT ALL THE WAY TO MONTANA THIS MORNING. THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP
INDICATE CLOUD COVER AND FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. AS FORCING BECOMES FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CLOUD CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT AND
BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT.
THE LATEST TREND IN THE MODELS IS TO DELAY PRECIPITATION FROM
ENTERING NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED THE
TRENDS FROM EARLIER FORECAST UPDATES AND PUSHED PRECIP CHANCES
EVEN FURTHER WESTWARD AND DELAYED ONSET. HOWEVER...UNLIKE
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE COULD BE A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE 00 AND 06 UTC MODELS BRING AN AXIS OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS FAR NORTH AS THE
CANADIAN BOARDER. AS SUCH INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT A BAND OF RAIN WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY TOMORROW MORNING. WITH VERY
LITTLE PROGRESSION OF THE MAIN FEATURES (SURFACE LOW...LONG WAVE
TROUGH OUT WEST...ETC.) EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY...SEVERAL HOURS
OF MUCH NEED LIGHT RAIN APPEARS LIKELY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN SLOWLY SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY HIGHLIGHTS THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WITH TWO SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
FOR SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. EMBEDDED S/WV IMPULSE ORIGINATING FROM
A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL ROTATE NORTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THEN GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM AND SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS MY WEST LIFTING NORTHEAST
BY MONDAY 12Z. BEST VERTICAL MOTION WILL OCCUR ALONG A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT INITIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL
MAINTAIN ELEVATED POPS THERE SUNDAY DAYTIME. FRONT STARTS TO
ORIENTATE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...ALLOWING SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
WEST AND SPREAD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BE
MAINLY DRY FOR THIS PERIOD ACROSS MY SOUTHEAST.
FOR EARLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
APPROACHES AND PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE STATE...RE-ENERGIZING THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST. IT WILL BE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
THAT THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK LIKE A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
WEST WITH AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH CENTRAL THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS AS A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 70S...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT KMOT/KBIS/KJMS/KDIK...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE
AT KISN. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WILL REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. AS A RESULT LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT AND CONTINUE SATURDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
936 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED GRIDS TO FIT BETTER WITH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. DID LOWER TEMPERATURES IN A COUPLE OF
LOCATIONS (MAINLY NORTH AND WEST). LAPS DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW
STRONG CAP. NEW NAM12 IS SHOWING CONVECTION ENTERING NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF CWFA MAINLY BETWEEN 09Z- 12Z...THEN WEAKENS IT AS IT
KEEPS A PRETTY STRONG CAP IN PLACE. THUS...HAVE KEPT POPS AS-IS
SINCE EARLY EVENING UPDATE...KEEPING CHANCE TO THE NORTH AND
SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE SOUTH. NEW HRRR IS KEEPING CONVECTION OUT OF
ARE THROUGH 12Z. WE SHALL SEE. UNFORTUNATELY, WE WILL HAVE TO
SEE...BUT STILL SUSPECT ANY STRONG CONVECTION LIKELY OVER THE
NORTHERN AREAS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT...POSSIBLY STRONG WITH SEVERE
NOT BEING RULED OUT (BUT FEEL BETTER CHANCES STAY TO THE NORTH
WITH LEFT-FRONT QUAD OF UPPER JET POSITION). PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
ISSUED. NO NOTABLE CHANGES TO THE COASTAL WATER FORECAST AT THIS
TIME...ALTHOUGH DID ADD FOG TO THE OFFSHORE AS WELL. CWF WILL BE
ISSUED AROUND 10 PM.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 732 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/
DISCUSSION...SOUNDING JUST CAME IN WITH STRONG CAP (23.8C AT
850MB). THE 64K DOLLAR QUESTION IS WILL THIS CAP HOLD OR WILL
CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS IN THE HILL COUNTRY BE ABLE TO MAKE IT
INTO THE CWFA (AND HOW FAR SOUTH). MESO-SCALE MODELS GIVE AREA A
BRUSH OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS (MORE STRONG) WITH SYNOPTIC MODELS
BEING A BIT MORE ROBUST WITH CONVECTION A BIT FARTHER SOUTH.
BELIEVE AT THIS TIME IS THAT STRONG TO POSSIBLY ISOLATED SEVERE
CONVECION MAY OCCUR OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN AREAS
LATE TONIGHT/TOWARD MORNING...WITH CAP LIKELY HOLDING ENOUGH TO
PRECULDE STRONGER CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST.
HOWEVER...WITH STILL UNCERTAINTY HAVE HELD OFF ON MENTIONING
SEVERE AT THIS TIME (SEEMS THAT EL-NINO CAN BRING SOME BONUS
CONVECTION AT TIMES). HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND LOOK
AT NEW MODEL DATA AND ADJUST ACCORINGLY/AS-NEEDED. HAVE UPDATED
GRIDS TO LOWER POPS THIS EVENING (KEPT POPS AS-IS OVERNIGHT)...BUT
ALSO INCLUDED FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN AREAS AS FOG IS
ALREADY FORMING (MAYBE COMBINATION OF HAZE AND FOG) SO HAVE
UPDATED FORECAST. DID NOT MESS WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES JUST YET.
PRODUCTS ARE OUT.
MARINE...INCLUDED FOG FOR THE COASTALS...AND WILL WRITE A MWS
CONCERNING FOG CONCERNS (AND IF WORSENS WILL ISSUE MWW...DENSE FOG
ADVIOSORY). WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCEC/SCA TONIGHT BUT WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR IN CASE ANY RISE/FALL COUPLETS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/
DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATION BRIEFING.
AVIATION...VFR NEXT 24 HRS AT KLRD. IFR/LIFR THIS EVENING AND
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HRS FOR KCRP/KVCT/KALI. THICK HAZE WILL
EXPAND INLAND FROM THE COAST THIS EVENING ALONG WITH STRATUS
RESULTING IN IFR/LIFR VSBYS/CIGS FOR EASTERN HALF OF S TX. SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PUSH SE ACROSS KLRD AOA 06Z AND REACH KALI/KCRP/KVCT
AROUND 09-11Z. CIGS AND VSBYS XPCTD TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER SFC
TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH. SCT CONVECTION MAY DVLP TONIGHT ACROSS TX
HILL COUNTRY AND SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT /AHEAD OF BOUNDARY/ AND
IMPACT KVCT BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...AS SUCH HAVE PROB30 FOR
CONVECTION IN TAF. KCRP/KLRD/KALI XPCTD TO REMAIN DRY AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...FUTURE TAF PKGS/AMENDMENTS MAY NEED TO INCLUDE
CONVECTION FOR LATE TONIGHT FOR KCRP/KALI. MAIN COLD FRONT WILL
THEN PUSH THROUGH TERMINALS A FEW HOURS AFTER SFC TROUGH RESULTING
IN CLEARING SKIES FOR MOST OF MON AND NW SFC WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 74 86 66 77 56 / 20 30 10 10 10
VICTORIA 70 85 62 74 52 / 40 50 10 10 10
LAREDO 68 92 64 78 56 / 20 10 10 10 10
ALICE 72 90 63 78 55 / 30 30 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 74 80 66 74 59 / 20 40 10 10 10
COTULLA 66 89 61 77 52 / 30 20 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 73 88 65 79 56 / 20 30 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 74 83 68 75 61 / 20 30 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
GW/86...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
216 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
.UPDATE...
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM SABINAL
TO DEL RIO GENERALLY IN THE SAME AREAS THAT SOME OF THE HI-RES
MODELS INDICATED. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE HILL COUNTRY TO
ALONG THE ESCARPMENT. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE DUE HIGH CAPES
AND COULD ALSO SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS THE AREAS
FROM DEL RIO TO SAN ANTONIO AND INTO THE ADJACENT HILL COUNTRY.
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS AS WELL. EXPECT THESE TO REMAIN THERE WITH LITTLE IMPACT
FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. AS A RESULT...HAVE CANCELLED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED.
REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1244 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
AVIATION...
THIS COULD BE A TRICKY FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM. MODELS ARE NOT
HANDLING THE CURRENT SITUATION VERY WELL. LIFR CIGS HAVE FORMED AT
DRT AND CAN/T SEE MUCH REASON FOR THEM TO CHANGE OVERNIGHT. THEY
RETURN TO VFR AROUND SUNRISE WHEN WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH. THE SAN
ANTONIO AIRPORTS SHOULD BE IFR OVERNIGHT WHILE AUS WILL BE MVFR.
ALL SITES WILL BE VFR BY ABOUT 14Z. HAVE BROUGHT MVFR CIGS BACK TO
THE 30 HOUR TAFS AT 09Z TOMORROW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1222 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
UPDATE...
HAVE CANCELLED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 104. STORMS HAVE WEAKENED
DUE TO INCREASING CAPPING INVERSION AND STABILITY. ALSO...HAVE
TRIMMED ATASCOSA...BEXAR...FRIO AND MEDINA FROM THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO THE EAST AND WILL MAINTAIN IT
THERE. HOWEVER...MAY CANCEL THE REMAINDER OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
BEFORE THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE IF CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
PERSIST. SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE ESCARPMENT OVERNIGHT. FOR
NOW...WILL DISREGARD AS MOISTURE DEPTH IS DECREASING. REMAINDER OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/
UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA TO REMOVE
COUNTIES WEST OF CURRENT ACTIVITY AND HAVE ADDED SOME
KARNES...DEWITT...LAVACA...AND GONZALES COUNTIES DOWNSTREAM.
RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE ENHANCED WHERE CURRENT AND
PROJECTED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS CONCERNING THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND
AND WILL MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW BUT WILL LIKELY BE
REVISITED IN NEXT COUPLE HOURS DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION.
MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND BELOW ON FOR THE NEXT 6-12 HOUR TIME
FRAME.
DISCUSSION...DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PLAINS ALONG WITH IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE BRISK H5-H3 SW FLOW
OVER THE REGION HAS LEAD TO SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOME COUNTIES
EASTWARD. MUCAPE VALUES REMAIN NEAR 3000 J/KG BUT IT APPEAR PER
MESO ANALYSIS THAT SOME LOW-LVL STABILIZATION IS BEGINNING TO
OCCUR. DESPITE THIS...AMPLE DIVERGENCE OVER THE REGION /70-90 KT
H5-H3 WIND FLOW/ LEADING TO NEAR 70 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS ABLE
TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND ENHANCE A HAIL AND STRAIGHT-LINE
DAMAGING WIND RISK. THE TORNADO RISK WHILE LIMITED BEFORE WILL
EVEN FURTHER REDUCE AS STORMS ENTER NON-FAVORABLE SRH FIELDS.
STORMS THAT WERE BACK WEST IN ZAVALA AND DIMMIT COUNTIES AROUND
8PM HAD ENHANCED EFFECTIVE SRH NEAR 200 M2/S2. IT APPEARS A MINI
SUPERCELL DEVELOPED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A FLANKING BOUNDARY
ATTENDANT TO ANOTHER SUPERCELL THAT WAS ABLE TO INGEST ENHANCED
LOW-LVL HELICITY FOR THE FUNNEL AND LIKELY BRIEF TORNADO THAT
OCCURRED. AGAIN...THIS RISK IS DIMINISHED QUICKLY GIVEN
UNFAVORABLE LOW-LVL SHEAR IN PLACE. SOME QUARTER SIZE HAIL...BRIEF
SEVERE WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THE HRRR CONTINUES TO TRY AND MERGE THESE CELLS ACROSS ATASCOSA
COUNTY INTO A LINE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PRAIRIE COUNTIES...WHILE
THIS IS PLAUSIBLE...IT REDUCES THE OVERALL RISK FOR WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN. SOME SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST NEW DEVELOPMENT UPWIND
OF CURRENT ACTIVITY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IS THIS SCENARIO. IF
CURRENT TRENDS HOLD...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE CUT BACK OR
CANCELLED IN ANOTHER UPDATE THIS EVENING. BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY 3AM...IF NOT SOONER...AND THE
AREA BE CLEAR OF ALL HAZARDS BY THAT TIME.
ALLEN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/
AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
ONGOING CONVECTION JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KDRT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. NEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND APPROACH KSAT AND KSSF AROUND 01Z AND 02Z
OVER KAUS. HIRES SOLUTIONS CLEAR THE KAUS AREA AFTER 04Z BUT KEEP
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS SAN ANTONIO THROUGH 05Z SATURDAY. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE
I-35 CORRIDOR. AT THIS TIME...WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS AS STRONGER STORMS ARE FORECAST TO STAY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
STORMS PERIOD...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT IFR CIGS FOR A SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME. AFTER THE STORMS PUSH AWAY OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND REMAIN THROUGH LATE SATURDAY MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE I-35 SITES AFTER 13Z WHILE KDRT
REMAINS VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...
STARTING TO SEE SOME RECOVERY AFTER THE EARLY MORNING MCS. SOME
POCKETS OF CLEARING ARE BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CWA AND FAR WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY...AND ALSO SEEING
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
MEXICO. ANALYSES INDICATES LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS ALONG AND
JUST WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE...STILL SOME CIN TO OVERCOME JUST EAST
OF THE RIO GRANDE. WITH ADDITIONAL CLEARING DO EXPECT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME STORMS TO CROSS INTO MAVERICK...KINNEY AND/OR VAL VERDE
COUNTIES THROUGH 6 PM.
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FORCING INCREASING WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING WITH APPROACH OF
SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH BROAD ENTRANCE REGION TO UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK LOCATED OVER THE CWA. SEVERAL HI RES MODELS INDICATE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS
EVENING SOUTHWEST OF SAN ANTONIO AND SPREADING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN ADDITION...ARW/NMM/HRRR INDICATING STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SJT CWA CLIPPING FAR NORTHERN AREAS UP NEAR
BURNET.
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP ELEVATED LAPSE RATES/CAPE
WARRANT THE RISK FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING...
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. BUT THE BIGGER
THREAT MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-10/US 90. VERY HIGH PWAT AIRMASS STILL POOLED IN THIS REGION...
AND MODEL CONSENSUS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF QPF WITH ISOLATED POCKETS
OF 3 TO 4 OCCURRING BETWEEN THE CRP/EWX CWA BOUNDARY AND I-10. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA...
COINCIDING WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ALREADY OCCURRED THE PAST
SEVERAL DAY. THE WATCH GOES AS FAR NORTH AS BASTROP AND LEE
COUNTIES (NOT INCLUDING TRAVIS OR WILLIAMSON)...DESPITE LESSER
AMOUNTS FORECAST IN THIS AREA. THIS IS OUT OF AN ABUNDANCE OF
CAUTION AS SOILS ARE SATURATED OVER MUCH OF THESE AREA...WITH
ONGOING FLOODING PROBLEMS CONTINUING IN BASTROP COUNTY.
PRECIP SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALONG AND WEST OF I-35. A POOL OF MOISTURE
WILL STILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES...WHERE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
RUNYEN
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE BOUNDARY MOVES BACK WEST
OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEEPENS ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND THE PANHANDLE. LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CWA AS WEAK FORCING INTERACTS WITH MOISTURE POOLED OVER
THE AREA. EVENTUALLY A COLD FRONT CLEARS THROUGH THE CWA ON
TUESDAY...AND DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES
EAST. LOOK FOR MORE SEASONAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 66 87 66 84 59 / 10 30 30 40 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 67 86 65 83 59 / 10 30 30 40 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 67 87 67 84 60 / 10 30 30 40 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 63 86 62 82 56 / 10 30 40 20 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 65 90 62 87 59 / 10 10 20 10 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 66 86 64 83 58 / 10 30 30 30 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 66 88 64 85 59 / 10 20 30 20 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 67 86 66 83 60 / 10 30 30 40 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 69 86 69 82 61 / 10 20 30 50 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 67 88 67 85 60 / 10 20 30 20 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 68 88 68 84 61 / 10 20 30 30 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1244 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
.AVIATION...
THIS COULD BE A TRICKY FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM. MODELS ARE NOT
HANDLING THE CURRENT SITUATION VERY WELL. LIFR CIGS HAVE FORMED AT
DRT AND CAN/T SEE MUCH REASON FOR THEM TO CHANGE OVERNIGHT. THEY
RETURN TO VFR AROUND SUNRISE WHEN WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH. THE SAN
ANTONIO AIRPORTS SHOULD BE IFR OVERNIGHT WHILE AUS WILL BE MVFR.
ALL SITES WILL BE VFR BY ABOUT 14Z. HAVE BROUGHT MVFR CIGS BACK TO
THE 30 HOUR TAFS AT 09Z TOMORROW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1222 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
UPDATE...
HAVE CANCELLED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 104. STORMS HAVE WEAKENED
DUE TO INCREASING CAPPING INVERSION AND STABILITY. ALSO...HAVE
TRIMMED ATASCOSA...BEXAR...FRIO AND MEDINA FROM THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO THE EAST AND WILL MAINTAIN IT
THERE. HOWEVER...MAY CANCEL THE REMAINDER OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
BEFORE THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE IF CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
PERSIST. SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE ESCARPMENT OVERNIGHT. FOR
NOW...WILL DISREGARD AS MOISTURE DEPTH IS DECREASING. REMAINDER OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/
UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA TO REMOVE
COUNTIES WEST OF CURRENT ACTIVITY AND HAVE ADDED SOME
KARNES...DEWITT...LAVACA...AND GONZALES COUNTIES DOWNSTREAM.
RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE ENHANCED WHERE CURRENT AND
PROJECTED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS CONCERNING THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND
AND WILL MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW BUT WILL LIKELY BE
REVISITED IN NEXT COUPLE HOURS DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION.
MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND BELOW ON FOR THE NEXT 6-12 HOUR TIME
FRAME.
DISCUSSION...DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PLAINS ALONG WITH IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE BRISK H5-H3 SW FLOW
OVER THE REGION HAS LEAD TO SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOME COUNTIES
EASTWARD. MUCAPE VALUES REMAIN NEAR 3000 J/KG BUT IT APPEAR PER
MESO ANALYSIS THAT SOME LOW-LVL STABILIZATION IS BEGINNING TO
OCCUR. DESPITE THIS...AMPLE DIVERGENCE OVER THE REGION /70-90 KT
H5-H3 WIND FLOW/ LEADING TO NEAR 70 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS ABLE
TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND ENHANCE A HAIL AND STRAIGHT-LINE
DAMAGING WIND RISK. THE TORNADO RISK WHILE LIMITED BEFORE WILL
EVEN FURTHER REDUCE AS STORMS ENTER NON-FAVORABLE SRH FIELDS.
STORMS THAT WERE BACK WEST IN ZAVALA AND DIMMIT COUNTIES AROUND
8PM HAD ENHANCED EFFECTIVE SRH NEAR 200 M2/S2. IT APPEARS A MINI
SUPERCELL DEVELOPED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A FLANKING BOUNDARY
ATTENDANT TO ANOTHER SUPERCELL THAT WAS ABLE TO INGEST ENHANCED
LOW-LVL HELICITY FOR THE FUNNEL AND LIKELY BRIEF TORNADO THAT
OCCURRED. AGAIN...THIS RISK IS DIMINISHED QUICKLY GIVEN
UNFAVORABLE LOW-LVL SHEAR IN PLACE. SOME QUARTER SIZE HAIL...BRIEF
SEVERE WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THE HRRR CONTINUES TO TRY AND MERGE THESE CELLS ACROSS ATASCOSA
COUNTY INTO A LINE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PRAIRIE COUNTIES...WHILE
THIS IS PLAUSIBLE...IT REDUCES THE OVERALL RISK FOR WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN. SOME SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST NEW DEVELOPMENT UPWIND
OF CURRENT ACTIVITY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IS THIS SCENARIO. IF
CURRENT TRENDS HOLD...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE CUT BACK OR
CANCELLED IN ANOTHER UPDATE THIS EVENING. BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY 3AM...IF NOT SOONER...AND THE
AREA BE CLEAR OF ALL HAZARDS BY THAT TIME.
ALLEN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/
AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
ONGOING CONVECTION JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KDRT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. NEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND APPROACH KSAT AND KSSF AROUND 01Z AND 02Z
OVER KAUS. HIRES SOLUTIONS CLEAR THE KAUS AREA AFTER 04Z BUT KEEP
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS SAN ANTONIO THROUGH 05Z SATURDAY. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE
I-35 CORRIDOR. AT THIS TIME...WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS AS STRONGER STORMS ARE FORECAST TO STAY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
STORMS PERIOD...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT IFR CIGS FOR A SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME. AFTER THE STORMS PUSH AWAY OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND REMAIN THROUGH LATE SATURDAY MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE I-35 SITES AFTER 13Z WHILE KDRT
REMAINS VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...
STARTING TO SEE SOME RECOVERY AFTER THE EARLY MORNING MCS. SOME
POCKETS OF CLEARING ARE BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CWA AND FAR WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY...AND ALSO SEEING
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
MEXICO. ANALYSES INDICATES LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS ALONG AND
JUST WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE...STILL SOME CIN TO OVERCOME JUST EAST
OF THE RIO GRANDE. WITH ADDITIONAL CLEARING DO EXPECT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME STORMS TO CROSS INTO MAVERICK...KINNEY AND/OR VAL VERDE
COUNTIES THROUGH 6 PM.
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FORCING INCREASING WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING WITH APPROACH OF
SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH BROAD ENTRANCE REGION TO UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK LOCATED OVER THE CWA. SEVERAL HI RES MODELS INDICATE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS
EVENING SOUTHWEST OF SAN ANTONIO AND SPREADING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN ADDITION...ARW/NMM/HRRR INDICATING STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SJT CWA CLIPPING FAR NORTHERN AREAS UP NEAR
BURNET.
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP ELEVATED LAPSE RATES/CAPE
WARRANT THE RISK FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING...
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. BUT THE BIGGER
THREAT MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-10/US 90. VERY HIGH PWAT AIRMASS STILL POOLED IN THIS REGION...
AND MODEL CONSENSUS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF QPF WITH ISOLATED POCKETS
OF 3 TO 4 OCCURRING BETWEEN THE CRP/EWX CWA BOUNDARY AND I-10. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA...
COINCIDING WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ALREADY OCCURRED THE PAST
SEVERAL DAY. THE WATCH GOES AS FAR NORTH AS BASTROP AND LEE
COUNTIES (NOT INCLUDING TRAVIS OR WILLIAMSON)...DESPITE LESSER
AMOUNTS FORECAST IN THIS AREA. THIS IS OUT OF AN ABUNDANCE OF
CAUTION AS SOILS ARE SATURATED OVER MUCH OF THESE AREA...WITH
ONGOING FLOODING PROBLEMS CONTINUING IN BASTROP COUNTY.
PRECIP SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALONG AND WEST OF I-35. A POOL OF MOISTURE
WILL STILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES...WHERE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
RUNYEN
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE BOUNDARY MOVES BACK WEST
OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEEPENS ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND THE PANHANDLE. LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CWA AS WEAK FORCING INTERACTS WITH MOISTURE POOLED OVER
THE AREA. EVENTUALLY A COLD FRONT CLEARS THROUGH THE CWA ON
TUESDAY...AND DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES
EAST. LOOK FOR MORE SEASONAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 89 66 86 66 83 / - 0 30 30 40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 88 63 85 65 83 / 10 - 30 30 40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 88 65 86 67 83 / 10 - 30 30 30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 86 61 85 62 82 / 0 0 30 30 30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 88 64 90 63 87 / 0 - - 20 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 88 63 85 65 82 / 0 0 30 30 40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 88 65 88 64 85 / - - 20 30 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 87 64 85 66 83 / 10 - 30 30 40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 87 67 85 69 81 / 20 - 30 20 40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 89 67 87 67 85 / 10 - 30 30 30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 88 66 87 67 84 / 10 - 30 30 30
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BASTROP...CALDWELL...DE WITT...FAYETTE...
GONZALES...GUADALUPE...KARNES...LAVACA...LEE...WILSON.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1222 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
.UPDATE...
HAVE CANCELLED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 104. STORMS HAVE WEAKENED
DUE TO INCREASING CAPPING INVERSION AND STABILITY. ALSO...HAVE
TRIMMED ATASCOSA...BEXAR...FRIO AND MEDINA FROM THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO THE EAST AND WILL MAINTAIN IT
THERE. HOWEVER...MAY CANCEL THE REMAINDER OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
BEFORE THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE IF CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
PERSIST. SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE ESCARPMENT OVERNIGHT. FOR
NOW...WILL DISREGARD AS MOISTURE DEPTH IS DECREASING. REMAINDER OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/
UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA TO REMOVE
COUNTIES WEST OF CURRENT ACTIVITY AND HAVE ADDED SOME
KARNES...DEWITT...LAVACA...AND GONZALES COUNTIES DOWNSTREAM.
RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE ENHANCED WHERE CURRENT AND
PROJECTED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS CONCERNING THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND
AND WILL MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW BUT WILL LIKELY BE
REVISITED IN NEXT COUPLE HOURS DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION.
MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND BELOW ON FOR THE NEXT 6-12 HOUR TIME
FRAME.
DISCUSSION...DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PLAINS ALONG WITH IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE BRISK H5-H3 SW FLOW
OVER THE REGION HAS LEAD TO SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOME COUNTIES
EASTWARD. MUCAPE VALUES REMAIN NEAR 3000 J/KG BUT IT APPEAR PER
MESO ANALYSIS THAT SOME LOW-LVL STABILIZATION IS BEGINNING TO
OCCUR. DESPITE THIS...AMPLE DIVERGENCE OVER THE REGION /70-90 KT
H5-H3 WIND FLOW/ LEADING TO NEAR 70 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS ABLE
TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND ENHANCE A HAIL AND STRAIGHT-LINE
DAMAGING WIND RISK. THE TORNADO RISK WHILE LIMITED BEFORE WILL
EVEN FURTHER REDUCE AS STORMS ENTER NON-FAVORABLE SRH FIELDS.
STORMS THAT WERE BACK WEST IN ZAVALA AND DIMMIT COUNTIES AROUND
8PM HAD ENHANCED EFFECTIVE SRH NEAR 200 M2/S2. IT APPEARS A MINI
SUPERCELL DEVELOPED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A FLANKING BOUNDARY
ATTENDANT TO ANOTHER SUPERCELL THAT WAS ABLE TO INGEST ENHANCED
LOW-LVL HELICITY FOR THE FUNNEL AND LIKELY BRIEF TORNADO THAT
OCCURRED. AGAIN...THIS RISK IS DIMINISHED QUICKLY GIVEN
UNFAVORABLE LOW-LVL SHEAR IN PLACE. SOME QUARTER SIZE HAIL...BRIEF
SEVERE WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THE HRRR CONTINUES TO TRY AND MERGE THESE CELLS ACROSS ATASCOSA
COUNTY INTO A LINE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PRAIRIE COUNTIES...WHILE
THIS IS PLAUSIBLE...IT REDUCES THE OVERALL RISK FOR WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN. SOME SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST NEW DEVELOPMENT UPWIND
OF CURRENT ACTIVITY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IS THIS SCENARIO. IF
CURRENT TRENDS HOLD...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE CUT BACK OR
CANCELLED IN ANOTHER UPDATE THIS EVENING. BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY 3AM...IF NOT SOONER...AND THE
AREA BE CLEAR OF ALL HAZARDS BY THAT TIME.
ALLEN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/
AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
ONGOING CONVECTION JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KDRT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. NEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND APPROACH KSAT AND KSSF AROUND 01Z AND 02Z
OVER KAUS. HIRES SOLUTIONS CLEAR THE KAUS AREA AFTER 04Z BUT KEEP
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS SAN ANTONIO THROUGH 05Z SATURDAY. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE
I-35 CORRIDOR. AT THIS TIME...WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS AS STRONGER STORMS ARE FORECAST TO STAY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
STORMS PERIOD...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT IFR CIGS FOR A SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME. AFTER THE STORMS PUSH AWAY OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND REMAIN THROUGH LATE SATURDAY MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE I-35 SITES AFTER 13Z WHILE KDRT
REMAINS VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...
STARTING TO SEE SOME RECOVERY AFTER THE EARLY MORNING MCS. SOME
POCKETS OF CLEARING ARE BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CWA AND FAR WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY...AND ALSO SEEING
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
MEXICO. ANALYSES INDICATES LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS ALONG AND
JUST WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE...STILL SOME CIN TO OVERCOME JUST EAST
OF THE RIO GRANDE. WITH ADDITIONAL CLEARING DO EXPECT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME STORMS TO CROSS INTO MAVERICK...KINNEY AND/OR VAL VERDE
COUNTIES THROUGH 6 PM.
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FORCING INCREASING WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING WITH APPROACH OF
SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH BROAD ENTRANCE REGION TO UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK LOCATED OVER THE CWA. SEVERAL HI RES MODELS INDICATE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS
EVENING SOUTHWEST OF SAN ANTONIO AND SPREADING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN ADDITION...ARW/NMM/HRRR INDICATING STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SJT CWA CLIPPING FAR NORTHERN AREAS UP NEAR
BURNET.
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP ELEVATED LAPSE RATES/CAPE
WARRANT THE RISK FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING...
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. BUT THE BIGGER
THREAT MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-10/US 90. VERY HIGH PWAT AIRMASS STILL POOLED IN THIS REGION...
AND MODEL CONSENSUS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF QPF WITH ISOLATED POCKETS
OF 3 TO 4 OCCURRING BETWEEN THE CRP/EWX CWA BOUNDARY AND I-10. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA...
COINCIDING WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ALREADY OCCURRED THE PAST
SEVERAL DAY. THE WATCH GOES AS FAR NORTH AS BASTROP AND LEE
COUNTIES (NOT INCLUDING TRAVIS OR WILLIAMSON)...DESPITE LESSER
AMOUNTS FORECAST IN THIS AREA. THIS IS OUT OF AN ABUNDANCE OF
CAUTION AS SOILS ARE SATURATED OVER MUCH OF THESE AREA...WITH
ONGOING FLOODING PROBLEMS CONTINUING IN BASTROP COUNTY.
PRECIP SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALONG AND WEST OF I-35. A POOL OF MOISTURE
WILL STILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES...WHERE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
RUNYEN
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE BOUNDARY MOVES BACK WEST
OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEEPENS ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND THE PANHANDLE. LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CWA AS WEAK FORCING INTERACTS WITH MOISTURE POOLED OVER
THE AREA. EVENTUALLY A COLD FRONT CLEARS THROUGH THE CWA ON
TUESDAY...AND DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES
EAST. LOOK FOR MORE SEASONAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 66 86 66 83 60 / 0 30 30 40 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 63 85 65 83 60 / - 30 30 40 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 65 86 67 83 60 / - 30 30 30 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 61 85 62 82 57 / 0 30 30 30 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 64 90 63 87 60 / - - 20 - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 63 85 65 82 59 / 0 30 30 40 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 65 88 64 85 60 / - 20 30 20 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 64 85 66 83 60 / - 30 30 40 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 67 85 69 81 62 / - 30 20 40 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 67 87 67 85 61 / - 30 30 30 -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 66 87 67 84 62 / - 30 30 30 -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BASTROP...CALDWELL...DE WITT...FAYETTE...
GONZALES...GUADALUPE...KARNES...LAVACA...LEE...WILSON.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1210 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
LOOKING AT THE TRENDS IN THE 25.12Z RAP AND 25.13Z HRRR IT APPEARS
ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN TODAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE VERY SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. THE RAP INDICATES THERE IS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT COULD
PRODUCE SOME WEAK FORCING OVER THE AREA BEFORE SHIFTING OFF TO THE
EAST DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME WEAK
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER COULD ALSO ROTATE BACK NORTH
INTO THE AREA AROUND 18Z. TRIMMED THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY TO CONFINE THEM TO THE FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS. ALSO LOWERED THEM DOWN FROM THE 60 TO 70 PERCENTS
TO ABOUT 30 OR 40 PERCENT. THE RAP SHOWS ALL THE CAPE REMAINING
WELL TO THE SOUTH WITH NO ELEVATED CAPE IN EITHER THE KDBQ OR KBLR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SO HAVE DROPPED THE THUNDER MENTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
FORECAST FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE RAIN THREAT TODAY. CLOSED
CIRCULATION SPINNING THROUGH KS EARLY THIS MORNING...HEADING EAST
AND WEAKENING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENETIC
FOCUS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS IA AND NORTHERN IL. MAIN DILEMMA IS
HOW FAR NORTH RAIN WILL GET. VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS HAD BEEN SUGGESTING RAIN WOULD SPREAD NORTH AS FAR
AS THE I-90 CORRIDOR. BUT THE LAST FEW RUNS HAVE NOW SHIFTED THAT
FOCUS FURTHER SOUTH. LOOKING AT THE FORCING AND THE INFLUX OF MORE
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR ON EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS SUPPORT A TIGHTER
RAIN/NO-RAIN GRADIENT AND THE SOUTHWARD SHIFT. THIS TREND IS
ALREADY BORNE OUT LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT RADAR LOOPS SHOWING THE
DIMINISHING TREND. SO MOVED THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION FOR
TODAY. RAIN THREAT WILL END BY SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER MB/ONT
BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. AIRMASS DRIES AND BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES TUMBLE. A CHILLY NIGHT IS ON TAP...ESPECIALLY OVER
OUR TYPICAL COOL AREAS OF CENTRAL WI.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
LOOKING INTO THE LONGER TERM...UPPER FLOW PATTERN REMAINS BLOCKED
THANKS TO THE EAST COAST CLOSED LOW WHICH PERSISTS INTO AT LEAST
TUESDAY. THIS KEEPS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW
POURING INTO THE AREA. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW LATE ON TUESDAY. THIS COULD BRING A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS TO PARTS OF THE AREA...BUT WITH A VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERE THE CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LOW. THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS
TO MORE OF AN OMEGA LOOK BY LATE IN THE WEEK...PUTTING THE AREA
MORE IN THE UPPER RIDGE. THUS...A WARMING TREND IS ON TAP WITH
TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR
ANY RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE NEXT WEEKEND AS THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW FINALLY GETS ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
ONTARIO WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT
BECOME STRONGER ENABLING THE RIDGE AXIS TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN DRIER AIR WHICH WILL ALLOW THE
CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND BECOME CLEAR EARLY
THIS EVENING. THE EAST WINDS WILL DROP TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AS
THE RIDGE AXIS STRENGTHENS AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...04
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1051 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
.UPDATE...
MESOSCALE MODELS AND UPDATED SYNOPTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE
MAIN AREA OF RAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. THE BEST UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION WITH THE PASSING 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE
SOUTH...AND LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE...REMAINS IN
THIS AREA.
SEEING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOP IN THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...SO
WILL ADJUST POPS FOR THOSE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL LEAVE IN
GENERALLY LOWER END POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO MIDDLE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE TRENDING DRY TOWARD SUNSET. CLOUDS WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH NORTHERN AREAS POSSIBLY
SEEING SOME BREAKS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
EAST NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE 40S LAKESIDE...TO THE
LOWER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST...WHERE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY
OCCUR LATER TODAY. MAY HAVE TO LOWER HIGHS SOME MORE IN THE SOUTH
WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER.
WOOD
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
MAY SEE LIGHT SHOWERS AT KENOSHA INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
LOWER CHANCES AT THE OTHER TAF SITES...AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. GUSTY EAST NORTHEAST
WINDS WITH SHIFT NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CATEGORY
CEILINGS.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE AXIS MOVES INTO THE REGION. NORTHEAST WINDS AT 1500 FEET
ABOVE GROUND LEVEL MAY LINGER AROUND 30 KNOTS TONIGHT...BUT NOT
ENOUGH OF A WIND SPEED DIFFERENCE FROM THE SURFACE TO REQUIRE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR MENTION IN TAFS.
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.
WOOD
&&
.MARINE...
SEVERAL VESSELS PARKED IN MILWAUKEE AND RACINE HARBORS REPORTING
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 18 TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE ENE THIS MORNING.
FURTHER TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TODAY AS
SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM MISSOURI E-SE TOWARD TN VALLEY REGION.
HOWEVER...BOTH RAP AND 12Z NAM12 SHOWING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDING ALONG LAKE MI WEST COAST THIS AFTN WHICH COULD PARTIALLY
BE A RESULT OF COLD LAKE MI TEMPS. RETURN OF MODIS IMAGERY
MEASURED LAKE MI SEA SURFACE TEMPS IN THE LOW 40S ON FRI.
WL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVY WITH SRN ZONES LIKELY TO HAVE MORE
FREQUENT WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 22KTS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...PERSISTENT N TO NE FETCH WILL CAUSE WAVE HEIGHTS TO
BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET OVER ALL OF THE NEARSHORE. MAY BE ABLE TO
TRIM BACK END TIME OF SMALL CRAFT ADVY WITH NEW AFTN FORECAST AS
WINDS AND WAVES LIKELY TO SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT.
MBK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
THE 250 MB UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST FROM KANSAS...
REACHING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY EVENING. AS IT DOES THE UPPER
JET IS SUPPRESSED SOUTH...WHILE THE MAIN JET MAX MOVES OFF TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER DIVERGENCE
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. A STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH AS 500 MB
PUSHES MAINLY EAST BEFORE THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND SOUTHEAST CANADA
TROUGH ROTATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FROM THE NORTHEAST.
MOST OF THE 700 MB UPWARD MOTION IS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
ILLINOIS BORDER TODAY.
THE 700 MB RH IS SATURATED ALONG THE SOUTH TIER OF COUNTIES THIS
MORNING...THEN DRIES FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT. THE 850 MB RH DRIES THIS MORNING NORTH AREAS...THEN ACROSS
THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE 850 MB LOW WEAKENS AND ELONGATES AS IT
MOVES EAST...THEN SAGGING SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE EAST 850 MB
WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING...THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS THEY TURN
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE WINDS ALSO INCREASE THIS
MORNING...BUT REMAIN MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND KENTUCKY REGION
TODAY MAY BRUSH THE FAR SOUTH WITH LIGHT RAIN. THE NAM...HRRR AND
THE ARW HIGH RES MODELS KEEP PRECIPITATION MAINLY SOUTH OF
WISCONSIN...ALTHOUGH THE ARW NMN DOES HAVE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER AND A BIT MORE NORTH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.
THE GFS IS THE FARTHEST NORTH OF THE MODELS...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF A
BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN THE NAM. WILL BE CUTTING BACK ON POP
VALUES...ESPECIALLY NORTH HALF TODAY.
LONG TERM...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
DRY AIR AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL NOSE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SPRAWLING CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
SHIFTS EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY AND BRING A PLEASANT
STRETCH OF WEATHER TO SOUTHERN WI. THERE WILL BE A STEADY BREEZE OUT
OF THE NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD... BUT WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WE CAN EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP EACH DAY. INLAND
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD WHILE LAKESHORE
TEMPS WILL BE STUCK IN THE 50S.
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN THROUGH WI TUE AFTERNOON/
EVENING. THE ECMWF ALLOWS THIS SHORTWAVE TO DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WHILE THE GFS DROPS IT INTO
THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON THE HEELS OF AN EXITING UPPER LOW. THE GFS
IS MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST FOR TUE NIGHT/WED WHILE THE ECMWF IS
SHOWING LIGHT RAIN OVER SOUTHERN WI. THUS... KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE ECWMF IS SHOWING A MORE ZONAL UPPER JET ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER THU NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE GFS IS SHOWING A LARGER RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. THE GFS IS QUICKEST TO DRAW
VERY WARM AIR INTO SOUTHERN WI LATE NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS DELAYED
WITH THE WARMING SINCE IT IS SHOWING RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY AND AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. IF
THE GFS PANS OUT... MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND KENTUCKY REGION
TODAY MAY BRUSH THE FAR SOUTH WITH LIGHT RAIN.
MAINLY VFR CIGS/VSBYS...ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FAR SOUTH
TOWARDS THE ILLINOIS BORDER...AND ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN. CIGS WILL
RISE AND CLOUDS CLEAR FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR.
MARINE...
EAST NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. RESULTING PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BRING WAVES
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WOOD/MBK
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ SUNDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
927 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
LOOKING AT THE TRENDS IN THE 25.12Z RAP AND 25.13Z HRRR IT APPEARS
ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN TODAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE VERY SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. THE RAP INDICATES THERE IS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT COULD
PRODUCE SOME WEAK FORCING OVER THE AREA BEFORE SHIFTING OFF TO THE
EAST DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME WEAK
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER COULD ALSO ROTATE BACK NORTH
INTO THE AREA AROUND 18Z. TRIMMED THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY TO CONFINE THEM TO THE FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS. ALSO LOWERED THEM DOWN FROM THE 60 TO 70 PERCENTS
TO ABOUT 30 OR 40 PERCENT. THE RAP SHOWS ALL THE CAPE REMAINING
WELL TO THE SOUTH WITH NO ELEVATED CAPE IN EITHER THE KDBQ OR KBLR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SO HAVE DROPPED THE THUNDER MENTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
FORECAST FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE RAIN THREAT TODAY. CLOSED
CIRCULATION SPINNING THROUGH KS EARLY THIS MORNING...HEADING EAST
AND WEAKENING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENETIC
FOCUS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS IA AND NORTHERN IL. MAIN DILEMMA IS
HOW FAR NORTH RAIN WILL GET. VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS HAD BEEN SUGGESTING RAIN WOULD SPREAD NORTH AS FAR
AS THE I-90 CORRIDOR. BUT THE LAST FEW RUNS HAVE NOW SHIFTED THAT
FOCUS FURTHER SOUTH. LOOKING AT THE FORCING AND THE INFLUX OF MORE
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR ON EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS SUPPORT A TIGHTER
RAIN/NO-RAIN GRADIENT AND THE SOUTHWARD SHIFT. THIS TREND IS
ALREADY BORNE OUT LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT RADAR LOOPS SHOWING THE
DIMINISHING TREND. SO MOVED THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION FOR
TODAY. RAIN THREAT WILL END BY SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER MB/ONT
BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. AIRMASS DRIES AND BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES TUMBLE. A CHILLY NIGHT IS ON TAP...ESPECIALLY OVER
OUR TYPICAL COOL AREAS OF CENTRAL WI.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
LOOKING INTO THE LONGER TERM...UPPER FLOW PATTERN REMAINS BLOCKED
THANKS TO THE EAST COAST CLOSED LOW WHICH PERSISTS INTO AT LEAST
TUESDAY. THIS KEEPS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW
POURING INTO THE AREA. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW LATE ON TUESDAY. THIS COULD BRING A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS TO PARTS OF THE AREA...BUT WITH A VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERE THE CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LOW. THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS
TO MORE OF AN OMEGA LOOK BY LATE IN THE WEEK...PUTTING THE AREA
MORE IN THE UPPER RIDGE. THUS...A WARMING TREND IS ON TAP WITH
TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR
ANY RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE NEXT WEEKEND AS THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW FINALLY GETS ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS ARE THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT
BOTH THE RST/LSE TAF SITES TODAY. LATEST 11Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN KANSAS WITH LATEST FOG SATELLITE
PRODUCT INDICATING STRATUS DECK CLOUDS COVERING MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION. LATEST METARS REPORTING
CEILING HEIGHTS GENERALLY IN THE VFR RANGE WITH A FEW
METARS REPORTING MVFR CONDITIONS. THE LATEST 25.06Z GFS/NAM
SUGGEST THE CEILING HEIGHTS TO REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT TAF BOTH RST/LSE SITES TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO THE REGION AND ALLOWS
SKIES TO CLEAR BY 03Z SUNDAY AT BOTH RST/LSE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND BECOME LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BY 03Z
SUNDAY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...04
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...DTJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
305 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A HIGH CENTERED IN WESTERN ONTARIO
INTO WEST CENTRAL IL WILL KEEP US COOL AND GENERALLY CLEAR TODAY.
THE RAP AND HRRR BOTH INDICATE THAT SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP IN
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
IN EAST CENTRAL IL. IN ADDITION, PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
RESULT IN PERIODICALLY GUSTY NORTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF
THE SURFACE RIDGING AND A DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
LATE APRIL.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
GENERAL NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO MID
WEEK...AS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES
TO WOBBLE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. DESPITE THIS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 60S THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NEW MEXICO WILL DRIFT EAST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BUT THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINS
WELL TO OUR SOUTH. MEANWHILE...A LARGE UPPER WAVE OVER WESTERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND CENTRAL MONTANA THIS MORNING WILL BE REACHING THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY EVENING. EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD BEEN STRUGGLING
WITH A PIECE OF ENERGY PINCHING OFF SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY AS THE
WAVE ARRIVED...BUT LATEST RUNS SHOW A SIZABLE UPPER LOW DROPPING
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH...AS THE CIRCULATION AROUND IT COULD RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS
OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN CWA BY THURSDAY...BUT GENERAL CONSENSUS
NOW KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION JUST TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER, IT WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS IN THE 60S...BEFORE A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
WEEKEND PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN A CHALLENGE...WITH THE GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR MCS ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY
AS WEAK UPPER IMPULSES ZIP THROUGH. HAVE KEPT SATURDAY POP`S IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE...WHILE INCREASING THEM ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY AS A STRONGER WAVE ARRIVES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING A MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...WITH THE SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST UP TO
20 KTS POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
355 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE HOW FAST PRECIPITATION ENDS AND CLEARING
BEGINS TODAY AND ITS AFFECTS ON THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...LOW
TEMPERATURES THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
TUESDAY...AND HOW MUCH THE WARMUP WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SATELLITE SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WITH AMPLIFIED FLOW
EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
AT JET LEVEL...ALL THE MODELS WERE CLOSE ON THE JET WITH THE NAM AND
THE ECMWF DOING A LITTLE BETTER. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS NOT TOO BAD
AT MID LEVELS WITH THE GFS...CANADIAN AND UKMET DOING THE BEST. THE
NAM WAS DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE
GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE CANADIAN AND NAM ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...RAINFALL HAS ALREADY ENDED OVER THE NORTHEAST TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA AS THE LAST BAND OF RAINFALL CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTH AND WEST. THIS IS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. MOST MODEL OUTPUT NO
MATTER HOW WELL IT IS CURRENTLY DOING ON THE POSITION OF THE
RAINFALL...ENDS THE RAINFALL BY 18Z. THE HRRR IS DOING THE BEST ON
ITS POSITION AT THIS TIME. BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND
HRRR...WILL LOWER THE POPS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY AND HAVE
THEM END BY LATE IN THE MORNING. WILL END UP HAVING SOME KIND OF
FOG MENTION THROUGH MID MORNING DUE TO THE CLEARING...MOIST LOW
LEVELS AND CONTINUED UPSLOPE WINDS.
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE DAY AND THERE IS A LOT DRIER AIR FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH MID
LEVELS THAT WILL BE PULLED INTO THE AREA. SO AS THE LAST FEW DAYS
HAS SHOWN...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA SHOULD BE THE WARMEST
SINCE IT CLEAR THE FIRST AND MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
GOING MAXES.
MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS...LIGHTER WINDS...AND LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR TONIGHT. CURRENT GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE WARMER
THAN YESTERDAYS. MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST HALF WILL HAVE WET GROUND AND
THAT MAYBE COULD MODERATE THE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN PLACE AND WENT WITH THE
COOLEST GUIDANCE.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF NORTHERN JET IS
APPROACHING DURING THE DAY AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA WILL BE AFFECTED OR BE CLOSE TO BE AFFECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS JET MOVES ACROSS DURING THE NIGHT. NEW MODEL OUTPUT
KEEPS ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL NORTH OF OUR AREA. THERE IS SOME
COLD AIR ALOFT WITH A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
MOVING THROUGH AT THE SAME TIME AS THE JET LIFT.
THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING IN. GOOD
LAPSE RATES ARE IN PLACE AS WELL. SAME PROBLEM AS THE DAY SHIFT
POINTED OUT YESTERDAY...LACK OF MOISTURE/DEEP DRY LAYER...ARE
STILL IN PLACE. THERE IS ENOUGH THERE THAT CONTINUING THE
SPRINKLES THE DAY SHIFT PUT IN LOOKS REASONABLE.
AS STATED ABOVE THERE LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE ANOTHER PRESSURE OR
COLD SURGE THAT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUING. CURRENTLY THERE IS A FRONT TO THE NORTH WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING SO THIS DEFINITELY SEEMS REASONABLE. PLUS
CLOUD COVER MAY INCREASE IN THE FAR NORTH DURING THE DAY. SO
TEMPERED THE WARMUP AND TENDED TO GO TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
GUIDANCE.
ANOTHER WEAK WIND FIELD IS IN PLACE DURING THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...IT
DOES LOOK LIKE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE/DRAINAGE WINDS DO DEVELOP IN THE
LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT. STILL THE SETUP IN PLACE WOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE AND TRENDED IN THAT
DIRECTION.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH DOES IT WARM
UP AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/PLENTY OF SUN MOVE INTO THE AREA.
DESPITE THIS...STILL RATHER SHARP NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE.
SINCE THERE IS ALSO A LACK OF CROSS MOUNTAIN COMPONENT ON THE MID
LEVEL WINDS...DO NOT EXPECT A STRONG LEE TROUGH TO DEVELOP. IN
FACT...WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT THE SURFACE WIND FIELD IS
ACTUALLY RESPONDING LIKE ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY IS MOVING THROUGH
WITH AN UNFAVORABLE SURFACE WIND FIELD IN PLACE. SO BACKED OFF A
LITTLE ON THE WARMING WITH THE NWP LOOKING A LITTLE WARM IN THIS
PATTERN. WENT CLOSER TO THE 2 METER AND BIAS ADJUSTMENT ON THE 850
MB TEMPERATURE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015
THE 500MB RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD AND FLATTEN
THUS LEADING TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND NEARLY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS GOING INTO FRIDAY. STRONG 500MB FLOW ACROSS THE
ROCKIES ON SATURDAY LEADS TO THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH FAVORING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE TROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH THE GFS BEING QUITE A
BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH AS IT PROGRESSES
EASTWARD.
I WENT WITH MORE OF A GFS SOLUTION IN THE 4 TO 7 DAY BASED ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROUGH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
TO THE WEST OF THE CWA AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THIS TROUGH. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
KGLD...MVFR CIGS FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 15Z. WINDS FROM THE
EAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 10KTS. FROM 16Z-22Z SOME CU BASED
AROUND 5K FT EXPECTED WITH CIRRUS OVERHEAD FROM AN UPPER LOW TO
THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. WINDS GUSTING TOWARD 20KTS FROM THE
NORTHEAST. 23Z-02Z WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST NEAR 11KTS THEN
VARIABLE FROM 03Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED.
KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. FROM TAF
ISSUANCE THROUGH 09Z CIGS JUST ABOVE VFR RANGE AND COULD DIP TO
MVFR CATEGORY FOR THE FIRST 3 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS FROM
THE NORTHEAST A BIT OVER 5KTS. 10Z-17Z A FEW LOW AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST NEAR 5KTS.
18Z-20Z GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20KTS EXPECTED FALLING TO 11KTS
AROUND 21Z THEN VARIABLE UNDER 5KTS FROM 03Z THROUGH THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD WITH ONLY SOME MID AND/OR HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...TML
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
423 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND AN UPPER LOW WHICH
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA TODAY. AS ONE OF THESE
DISTURBANCES CROSSES SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATER TODAY THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL IMPROVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AT THIS TIME THE AREA MORE FAVORABLE
FOR THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF A LARNED TO DODGE CITY TO
LIBERAL LINE BASED ON WHERE THE 700MB TO 500MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL
BE LOCATED ALONG WITH THE 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT. PRIOR TO THIS ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE APPEARS TO BE PRESENT
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. GIVEN WHERE THE BETTER DOWNGLIDE WILL BE
EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE LOWERED THE CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF DODGE CITY EARLY
TODAY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...GIVEN SOME BREAKS OF SUN BEING
POSSIBLE BY LATE DAY NORTH OF DODGE CITY WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE
LATEST GUIDANCE GIVEN THE 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z TUESDAY.
FURTHER SOUTH WHERE MORE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH A IMPROVING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FAVORING THE
COOLER 2M NAM TEMPS.
SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA. EVENING
CONVECTION IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL END BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
TUESDAY. HOW FAR TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TONIGHT WILL DEPEND ON HOW
QUICKLY SKIES CLEAR. AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE CURRENT CLEARING
TREND THE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE
MID 30S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS BY 12Z TUESDAY. UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S ARE EXPECTED FURTHER EAST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
SUNNY CONDITIONS AND MARGINALLY BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BE THE
CHARACTER OF THE DAY TUESDAY AS WESTERN KANSAS BECOMES UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF UPPER NW FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING MID
LEVEL LOW FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK MID
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE,
HOWEVER ANY PRECIPITATION OR VIRGA ASSOCIATED WITH IT APPEARS WELL
TO THE NORTH OVER NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KS LATE TUESDAY.
THE NEXT SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURE APPEARS TO BE THE POLAR JET SEGMENT
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS
SYSTEM APPEARS IN THE GFS TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD,
INTERSECTING ENHANCED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE ECMWF, HOWEVER FAR MORE DRY SOLUTION, DEPICTS A SIMILAR MODEL
FEATURE EVOLUTION. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FEATURES A
WARMING TREND TO AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN THE
WEEK AS RIDGING BECOMES THE PRIMARY SENSIBLE WEATHER INFLUENCE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
00Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS, HRRR AND RAP ALL APPEAR TO BE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH IFR CEILINGS AT GCK GRADUALLY IMPROVING INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY BY 09Z. LOW MVFR CEILINGS AT DDC WILL ALSO BE
IMPROVING INTO THE 2000 TO 3000FT AGL RANGE BY 12Z MONDAY AS
ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE AND DRIER AIR DEVELOPS IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
FOG POTENTIAL WILL ALSO ON THE DECREASE BUT PATCHY OF FOG MAY
STILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES AROUND DAYBREAK TO 2-4 MILES.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT
RANGE BY 12Z MONDAY AND THEN CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO AROUND
20 KNOTS BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THE BETTER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL IN THE DDC AND GCK AREAS BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z MONDAY. AFTER 12Z MONDAY THE BETTER FORCING WILL SHIFT
SOUTH OF THESE TERMINALS. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE
DDC AREA WHERE A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY.
CEILINGS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE
DAY. DDC AND GCK IS EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE VFR CATEGORY
BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 54 38 66 41 / 80 30 10 10
GCK 56 35 66 39 / 40 10 10 10
EHA 51 37 63 39 / 90 20 0 0
LBL 49 37 64 40 / 100 40 10 0
HYS 61 38 67 41 / 10 0 10 10
P28 55 42 66 42 / 100 50 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
236 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE HOW FAST PRECIPITATION ENDS AND CLEARING
BEGINS TODAY AND ITS AFFECTS ON THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...LOW
TEMPERATURES THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
TUESDAY...AND HOW MUCH THE WARMUP WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SATELLITE SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WITH AMPLIFIED FLOW
EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
AT JET LEVEL...ALL THE MODELS WERE CLOSE ON THE JET WITH THE NAM AND
THE ECMWF DOING A LITTLE BETTER. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS NOT TOO BAD
AT MID LEVELS WITH THE GFS...CANADIAN AND UKMET DOING THE BEST. THE
NAM WAS DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE
GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE CANADIAN AND NAM ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...RAINFALL HAS ALREADY ENDED OVER THE NORTHEAST TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA AS THE LAST BAND OF RAINFALL CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTH AND WEST. THIS IS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. MOST MODEL OUTPUT NO
MATTER HOW WELL IT IS CURRENTLY DOING ON THE POSITION OF THE
RAINFALL...ENDS THE RAINFALL BY 18Z. THE HRRR IS DOING THE BEST ON
ITS POSITION AT THIS TIME. BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND
HRRR...WILL LOWER THE POPS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY AND HAVE
THEM END BY LATE IN THE MORNING. WILL END UP HAVING SOME KIND OF
FOG MENTION THROUGH MID MORNING DUE TO THE CLEARING...MOIST LOW
LEVELS AND CONTINUED UPSLOPE WINDS.
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE DAY AND THERE IS A LOT DRIER AIR FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH MID
LEVELS THAT WILL BE PULLED INTO THE AREA. SO AS THE LAST FEW DAYS
HAS SHOWN...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA SHOULD BE THE WARMEST
SINCE IT CLEAR THE FIRST AND MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
GOING MAXES.
MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS...LIGHTER WINDS...AND LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR TONIGHT. CURRENT GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE WARMER
THAN YESTERDAYS. MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST HALF WILL HAVE WET GROUND AND
THAT MAYBE COULD MODERATE THE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN PLACE AND WENT WITH THE
COOLEST GUIDANCE.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF NORTHERN JET IS
APPROACHING DURING THE DAY AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA WILL BE AFFECTED OR BE CLOSE TO BE AFFECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS JET MOVES ACROSS DURING THE NIGHT. NEW MODEL OUTPUT
KEEPS ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL NORTH OF OUR AREA. THERE IS SOME
COLD AIR ALOFT WITH A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
MOVING THROUGH AT THE SAME TIME AS THE JET LIFT.
THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING IN. GOOD
LAPSE RATES ARE IN PLACE AS WELL. SAME PROBLEM AS THE DAY SHIFT
POINTED OUT YESTERDAY...LACK OF MOISTURE/DEEP DRY LAYER...ARE
STILL IN PLACE. THERE IS ENOUGH THERE THAT CONTINUING THE
SPRINKLES THE DAY SHIFT PUT IN LOOKS REASONABLE.
AS STATED ABOVE THERE LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE ANOTHER PRESSURE OR
COLD SURGE THAT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUING. CURRENTLY THERE IS A FRONT TO THE NORTH WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING SO THIS DEFINITELY SEEMS REASONABLE. PLUS
CLOUD COVER MAY INCREASE IN THE FAR NORTH DURING THE DAY. SO
TEMPERED THE WARMUP AND TENDED TO GO TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
GUIDANCE.
ANOTHER WEAK WIND FIELD IS IN PLACE DURING THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...IT
DOES LOOK LIKE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE/DRAINAGE WINDS DO DEVELOP IN THE
LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT. STILL THE SETUP IN PLACE WOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE AND TRENDED IN THAT
DIRECTION.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH DOES IT WARM
UP AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/PLENTY OF SUN MOVE INTO THE AREA.
DESPITE THIS...STILL RATHER SHARP NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE.
SINCE THERE IS ALSO A LACK OF CROSS MOUNTAIN COMPONENT ON THE MID
LEVEL WINDS...DO NOT EXPECT A STRONG LEE TROUGH TO DEVELOP. IN
FACT...WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT THE SURFACE WIND FIELD IS
ACTUALLY RESPONDING LIKE ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY IS MOVING THROUGH
WITH AN UNFAVORABLE SURFACE WIND FIELD IN PLACE. SO BACKED OFF A
LITTLE ON THE WARMING WITH THE NWP LOOKING A LITTLE WARM IN THIS
PATTERN. WENT CLOSER TO THE 2 METER AND BIAS ADJUSTMENT ON THE 850
MB TEMPERATURE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
MONDAY NIGHT...OVERALL MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO SPEED UP EXIT OF
PRECIP WITH DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH AXIS OF
SUBSIDENCE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND H5 TROUGH AXIS MOVING OVER THE CWA
CONDITIONS. WHILE I CONSIDERED HOLDING ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION 00-
03Z...WITH CURRENT TREND WITH GUIDANCE DRY I DECIDED TO KEEP THIS
OUT. CLEARING SKIES...LOW TD VALUES...LIGHT WINDS...AND COOL AIR
MASS WILL ALLOW FOR A FROST TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE CWA.
ACTUALLY WITH SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING MID TO UPPER 20 TDS IN THE WEST A
HARD FREEZE COULDNT BE RULED OUT. CLIMATOLOGICAL LAST HARD FREEZE IS
THE FIRST WEEK OF MAY...SO WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF ON FROST/FREEZE
HIGHLIGHTS FOR NOW...THOUGH IT IS GETTING CLOSE.
TUESDAY...SECONDARY H3 JET ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION WITH MID LEVEL
MOISTURE LIMITED. GFS IS MORE BULLISH ON PRODUCING LIGHT QPF ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND
CURRENT NAM...THOUGH 12Z ECMWF HAS COME IN LINE WITH A WEAK PRECIP
SIGNAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERING THE LIMITED MOISTURE IN
PLACE...I DECIDED TO LIMIT MENTION TO SPRINKLES FOR NOW AS
CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE IS NOT HIGH.
TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...H5 RIDGE STILL PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT TO WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW
(DEPENDING ON MODEL) AS TROUGH BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN US.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. INITIALLY PATTERN WILL FAVOR DRY CONDITIONS...HOWEVER AS
RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND A MORE PROGRESSIVE ZONAL PATTERN
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES MAY BEGIN TO ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS COULD FAVOR
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
MEAN WIND FAVORING A PROGRESSION OF THIS ACTIVITY FROM THE WEST TO
EAST. TIMING/EVOLUTION OF THESE FEATURES IS STILL IN QUESTION AT
THIS RANGE...ALONG WITH POSITION OF SURFACE FEATURES THAT COULD
SERVE TO AID AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. I ADJUSTED
CONSENSUS 20/30 POPS TO FAVOR AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR NOW TO
REFLECT PERIOD OF PEAK INSTABILITY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
KGLD...MVFR CIGS FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 15Z. WINDS FROM THE
EAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 10KTS. FROM 16Z-22Z SOME CU BASED
AROUND 5K FT EXPECTED WITH CIRRUS OVERHEAD FROM AN UPPER LOW TO
THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. WINDS GUSTING TOWARD 20KTS FROM THE
NORTHEAST. 23Z-02Z WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST NEAR 11KTS THEN
VARIABLE FROM 03Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED.
KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. FROM TAF
ISSUANCE THROUGH 09Z CIGS JUST ABOVE VFR RANGE AND COULD DIP TO
MVFR CATEGORY FOR THE FIRST 3 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS FROM
THE NORTHEAST A BIT OVER 5KTS. 10Z-17Z A FEW LOW AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST NEAR 5KTS.
18Z-20Z GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20KTS EXPECTED FALLING TO 11KTS
AROUND 21Z THEN VARIABLE UNDER 5KTS FROM 03Z THROUGH THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD WITH ONLY SOME MID AND/OR HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
123 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND AN UPPER LOW WHICH
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA TODAY. AS ONE OF THESE
DISTURBANCES CROSSES SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATER TODAY THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL IMPROVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AT THIS TIME THE AREA MORE FAVORABLE
FOR THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF A LARNED TO DODGE CITY TO
LIBERAL LINE BASED ON WHERE THE 700MB TO 500MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL
BE LOCATED ALONG WITH THE 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT. PRIOR TO THIS ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE APPEARS TO BE PRESENT
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. GIVEN WHERE THE BETTER DOWNGLIDE WILL BE
EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE LOWERED THE CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF DODGE CITY EARLY
TODAY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...GIVEN SOME BREAKS OF SUN BEING
POSSIBLE BY LATE DAY NORTH OF DODGE CITY WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE
LATEST GUIDANCE GIVEN THE 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z TUESDAY.
FURTHER SOUTH WHERE MORE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH A IMPROVING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FAVORING THE
COOLER 2M NAM TEMPS.
SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA. EVENING
CONVECTION IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL END BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
TUESDAY. HOW FAR TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TONIGHT WILL DEPEND ON HOW
QUICKLY SKIES CLEAR. AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE CURRENT CLEARING
TREND THE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE
MID 30S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS BY 12Z TUESDAY. UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S ARE EXPECTED FURTHER EAST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING EAST AND SOUTH OF WESTERN KANSAS. WILL
MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE FOR LINGERING SHOWERS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF
DODGE CITY ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS MODEL TRENDS
CONTINUE WITH LESSER CHANCES OVER WESTERN KANSAS. THE GFS IS THE
FARTHEST NORTH WITH PRECIP, WHILE THE OTHER MODELS HAVE IT MORE
SOUTH. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
FOR THE PERIOD OF WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY, A DRY PERIOD IS FORECAST AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS IN CONTROL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 40S WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY MORNING, THEN WARM TO AROUND
50 ON FRIDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HIGHS WARM FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AND THE UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY.
FOR THE NEXT WEEKEND PERIOD, INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN THE FORECAST INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, AS GULF
MOISTURE RETURNS. LOWS WILL BE MILD AN IN THE 50S, WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS AROUND 80.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
00Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS, HRRR AND RAP ALL APPEAR TO BE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH IFR CEILINGS AT GCK GRADUALLY IMPROVING INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY BY 09Z. LOW MVFR CEILINGS AT DDC WILL ALSO BE
IMPROVING INTO THE 2000 TO 3000FT AGL RANGE BY 12Z MONDAY AS
ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE AND DRIER AIR DEVELOPS IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
FOG POTENTIAL WILL ALSO ON THE DECREASE BUT PATCHY OF FOG MAY
STILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES AROUND DAYBREAK TO 2-4 MILES.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT
RANGE BY 12Z MONDAY AND THEN CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO AROUND
20 KNOTS BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THE BETTER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL IN THE DDC AND GCK AREAS BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z MONDAY. AFTER 12Z MONDAY THE BETTER FORCING WILL SHIFT
SOUTH OF THESE TERMINALS. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE
DDC AREA WHERE A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY.
CEILINGS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE
DAY. DDC AND GCK IS EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE VFR CATEGORY
BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 54 38 68 42 / 70 30 10 10
GCK 55 35 68 41 / 50 10 10 10
EHA 51 37 65 40 / 90 10 0 0
LBL 49 39 67 41 / 90 40 10 10
HYS 60 40 68 42 / 10 10 10 10
P28 55 42 66 43 / 90 50 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1235 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
AT 00Z MONDAY A 500MB LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NEW MEXICO WITH SEVERAL
SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EVIDENT FROM SATELLITE LOOP
ROTATING AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. NORTHEAST OF THIS UPPER
LOW A 700MB DEFORMATION ZONE EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO TO
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. SCATTERED CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
700MB DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS BASE ON 05Z REGIONAL
RADAR LOOP. ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT WAS EVIDENT AT THE 850MB
LEVEL ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY MONDAY MORNING WHILE
CLOSING OFF THEN SLOWING DOWN. MOISTURE THAT WAS INITIALLY SHUNTED
TO THE GULF COAST HAS PROGRESSED NORTHWESTWARD AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS MAY CUT OFF THE LOW
LEVEL MOIST INFLOW INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS THE SYSTEM PASSES TO
THE SOUTH. RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE STILL
MAINTAINED IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY ALONG THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE,
WITH LESSER CHANCES FARTHER NORTH. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE
RAIN MAY STAY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY TONIGHT GIVEN THE CLOUD
COVER, WITH A DROP OF ONLY A FEW DEGREES. IF THE RAIN SHIELD STAYS
IN OKLAHOMA ON MONDAY THEN TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY RISE INTO THE
LOWER 60S FROM DODGE CITY NORTHWARD IF THE SUN MAKES AN
APPEARANCE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING EAST AND SOUTH OF WESTERN KANSAS. WILL
MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE FOR LINGERING SHOWERS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF
DODGE CITY ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS MODEL TRENDS
CONTINUE WITH LESSER CHANCES OVER WESTERN KANSAS. THE GFS IS THE
FARTHEST NORTH WITH PRECIP, WHILE THE OTHER MODELS HAVE IT MORE
SOUTH. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
FOR THE PERIOD OF WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY, A DRY PERIOD IS FORECAST AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS IN CONTROL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 40S WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY MORNING, THEN WARM TO AROUND
50 ON FRIDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HIGHS WARM FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AND THE UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY.
FOR THE NEXT WEEKEND PERIOD, INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN THE FORECAST INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, AS GULF
MOISTURE RETURNS. LOWS WILL BE MILD AN IN THE 50S, WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS AROUND 80.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
00Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS, HRRR AND RAP ALL APPEAR TO BE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH IFR CEILINGS AT GCK GRADUALLY IMPROVING INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY BY 09Z. LOW MVFR CEILINGS AT DDC WILL ALSO BE
IMPROVING INTO THE 2000 TO 3000FT AGL RANGE BY 12Z MONDAY AS
ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE AND DRIER AIR DEVELOPS IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
FOG POTENTIAL WILL ALSO ON THE DECREASE BUT PATCHY OF FOG MAY
STILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES AROUND DAYBREAK TO 2-4 MILES.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT
RANGE BY 12Z MONDAY AND THEN CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO AROUND
20 KNOTS BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THE BETTER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL IN THE DDC AND GCK AREAS BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z MONDAY. AFTER 12Z MONDAY THE BETTER FORCING WILL SHIFT
SOUTH OF THESE TERMINALS. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE
DDC AREA WHERE A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY.
CEILINGS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE
DAY. DDC AND GCK IS EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE VFR CATEGORY
BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 38 68 42 71 / 30 10 10 0
GCK 35 68 41 72 / 10 10 10 0
EHA 37 65 40 72 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 39 67 41 72 / 40 10 10 0
HYS 40 68 42 72 / 10 10 10 0
P28 42 66 43 72 / 50 10 10 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
450 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO SRN JAMES BAY. TO THE SE...A MID
LEVEL LOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EXTENDS BROAD
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION BACK TO THE UPPER LAKES. SHORTWAVE THAT WAS N
OF MAINE 24HRS AGO HAS TRACKED W AND SW AND IS NOW OVER NE LWR
MI/LAKE HURON. WHILE THIS WAVE HAS HELPED PUSH CLOUDS W INTO UPPER
MI...CLOUDS HAVE NOT SPREAD AS FAR W AS EXPECTED...AND CLOUD HEIGHTS
ARE QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN MODELS INDICATED. AS OF 08Z...W EDGE OF
THE STRATOCU DECK RUNS FROM NE LAKE SUPERIOR TO ROUGHLY MUNISING-
ESCANABA. CLOUDS BRIEFLY EXTENDED W INTO MARQUETTE COUNTY EARLIER
IN THE NIGHT.
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS TODAY.
LOOKING N...W EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK EXTENDS A LITTLE FARTHER W IN
NRN ONTARIO THAN OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THIS MAY BE KEY TO
SPREADING CLOUDS INTO MORE OF UPPER MI TODAY UNDER NNE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. ON THE OTHER HAND...DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE DAY WILL LEAD TO INCREASED DIVERGENCE OVER
THE LAKE WHICH WILL WORK TO BREAK UP THE LOWER CLOUDS THAT DROP SSW
OVER THE LAKE. THE COMPETING SIGNALS MAKE THE CLOUD FCST IN CNTRL
UPPER MI QUITE UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW...FCST REFLECTS SOME WESTWARD
EXPANSION OF CLOUDS IN CNTRL UPPER MI THIS MORNING FROM WHAT IS
CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAX TEMPS SHOULD
BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BUT PROBABLY A LITTLE COOLER AT SOME
LOCATIONS OVER THE E DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER
THE AREA. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR W TO PARTLY CLOUDY EAST...PERHAPS
MOSTLY CLOUDY FAR EAST. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO WHAT
IS BEING OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER
WILL OBVIOUSLY PLAY A ROLE IN MIN TEMPS OVER THE E TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015
MODELS STILL SHOWING POOR AGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY
WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY POSSIBLY SHIFTING THROUGH OR NEAR THE REGION
TUE INTO THU. THE 00Z/29 IS SHOWING THE MOST PRECIP AS A RESULT OF
SHOWING STRONGER ENERGY MORE DIRECTLY IMPACT THE CWA. HOWEVER...THE
GFS STILL ONLY SHOWS LESS THAN 0.05 INCHES OF RAIN TUE
EVENING...0.01-0.02 INCHES WED AFTERNOON...AND UP TO 0.15 INCHES
OVER THE FAR E LATE WED. LITTLE TO NO QPF SEEN FROM OTHER
MODELS...SO THE GFS IS MORE OF AN OUTLIER. THAT COMBINED WITH THE
FACT THAT THE LACK OF PRECIP HAS BEEN PERSISTENT LATELY...WILL NOT
INCLUDE PRECIP IN THE FORECAST. OF COURSE...THE STRENGTH AND TRACK
OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPS DUE TO BOTH
AIRMASS TEMPS AND A PRECIP/CLOUD COVER. TUE WILL BE WARMER THAN WED
AND THU AS MODELS DO AT LEAST AGREE THAT THE AIRMASS WILL BE COOLER
ON WED AND THU...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECIP/EXACT TEMPS FRI THROUGH SUN AS
WELL WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON FRI BEING BROKEN DOWN BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY/TROUGHING MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA. THE 12Z/26 ECMWF SHOWS
LESS THAN 0.05 INCHES OF QPF ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT ON FRI INTO FRI
NIGHT...BUT OTHER MODELS DO NOT SUPPORT THIS IDEA. GENERAL IDEA IS
THAT SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETAKE CONTROL ON SAT...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. PRECIP CHANCES ARE HIGHER ON SUN AS THE ECMWF
BRINGS A WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW. THE
AIRMASS DEFINITELY BECOMES WARMER INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT HOW MUCH
AND WHEN THE WARMEST CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED IS CLOUDED BY MODEL
DISAGREEMENT/VARIABILITY. COULD SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S OVER THE
W HALF ON ONE OR TWO DAYS FRI THROUGH SUN...PROBABLY OCCURING ON SAT
IF IT DOES END UP BEING DRY/SUNNY AS CURRENTLY SHOWN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH
NOCTURNAL COOLING...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO IMPACT MAINLY CMX AND
ESPECIALLY SAW...WHERE THE EXPECTED NNE WIND WILL HAVE THE STRONGER
UPSLOPE COMPONENT. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT SAW THAT MAY APPROACH
IFR FOR A NUMBER OF HOURS LATE IN THE NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.
IWD MAY ALSO SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS...BUT A DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT AND
THE LOCATION OF THE WRN EDGE OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
JUSTIFIES ONLY A SCT SKY FCST. SAW WILL SEE THE SLOWEST IMPROVEMENT
TODAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS NOT LIKELY UNTIL MID AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015
WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING S THRU WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY...WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTEST OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...MOSTLY UNDER 10KT. OVER
THE E...WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO NEAR 20KT. AS THE RIDGE
DRIFTS E A BIT TONIGHT...WINDS WILL FALL OFF TO MOSTLY UNDER 10KT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE. ON TUE...WINDS WILL BE UNDER 15KT AS THE
RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A WEAK LOW PRES TROF THAT PASSES TUE NIGHT. IN
ITS WAKE...ANOTHER HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE S FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WED/THU. AS THE HIGH BEGINS RIDGING S INTO THE
UPPER LAKES WED...WINDS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY GUST TO
NEAR 20KT ONCE AGAIN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER THE W. WITH WEAK
PRES GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER LAKES THU/FRI...WIND SHOULD BE MOSTLY
UNDER 15KT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
340 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP CYC FLOW ARND
CLOSED LO CENTERED OVER NOVA SCOTIA EXTENDING W INTO THE UPR LKS AND
DOWNSTREAM OF UPR RDG IN THE PLAINS. SHRTWV EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPR
TROF IS NEAR THE SOO AND SHIFTING TO THE SSW IN THE NE UPR FLOW ARND
THE CLOSED LO. THIS DISTURBANCE IS BRINGING SOME CLDS TO ERN UPR
MI...BUT ANY ACCOMPANYING PCPN IS ON TRACK TO REMAIN TO THE E OF THE
CWA. THERE IS ANOTHER SHRTWV OVER WRN QUEBEC ROTATING TO THE WSW
ARND THE CLOSED LO. 12Z RAOB FM MOOSONEE ONTARIO SHOWED DEEP
SATURATION. UNDER THE TWO SHRTWVS NOTED TO THE E...THERE ARE PLENTY
OF LO CLDS E AND NE OF THE SOO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEEPER MSTR.
DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS FARTHER TO THE W AS SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB AND
INL RAOBS /12Z PWAT AT THOSE LOCATIONS WAS ABOUT 0.25 INCH AND AS
LITTLE AS 50 PCT OF NORMAL/ IS MAINTAINING MOSUNNY SKIES OVER MOST
OF THE CWA. TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 50S AWAY FM THE MODERATING
INFLUENCE OF LK SUP...BUT READINGS REMAIN NEAR 40 ALONG THE CHILLY
LK SUP SHORE.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR AREA OF
LO CLDS TO THE NE TO IMPACT UPR MI AND IMPACT ON TEMPS.
TNGT...AS SECOND SHRTWV NOW OVER WRN QUEBEC ROTATES SWWD AND OVER
FAR ERN UPR MI...THE LLVL FLOW IS FCST TO VEER MORE TO THE NE AND
ADVECT THE MORE COPIOUS LLVL MSTR INTO THE UPR LKS. IN CONCERT WITH
NOCTURNAL COOLING THAT WL END DEEP MIXING...EXPECT BKN-OVC LO CLDS
TO DVLP OVER MAINLY THE NCENTRAL AND ERN CWA AS INDICATED BY CURRENT
FCST. ALTHOUGH THE DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THIS SHRTWV
ARE FCST TO BRUSH THE ERN CWA...THE BULK OF THE MODELS INDICATE THE
PCPN WL REMAIN TO THE E OF THAT AREA WITH THE MID LVLS REMAINING TOO
DRY. SEVERAL OF THE HIER RES MODELS DO GENERATE SOME LGT PCPN OVER
MAINLY THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NCENTRAL...WHERE THE UPSLOPE FLOW WL
BE MAXIMIZED. OPTED TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF SOME DRIZZLE/FLURRIES IN
THESE AREAS LATE TNGT. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR
FAR W...WHICH WL BE FARTHER FM THE INCOMING HIER LLVL MSTR AND WHERE
DOWNSLOPE...MORE DIFFLUENT FLOW NEAR SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS WL
RESTRICT THE POTENTIAL FOR LO CLDS THAT WOULD ARRIVE LATER.
MON...WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND FCST LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVRN SHOWN
ON FCST SDNGS...EXPECT THE LO CLDS TO GRADUALLY MIX OUT. THIS
PROCESS WL BE SLOWEST OVER THE NCENTRAL AND E. H85 TEMPS WL BE CLOSE
TO 0C...SO MAX TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE 50S OVER THE INTERIOR W
AND SCENTRAL WITH DEEP MIXING. BUT HI TEMPS WL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE
LO END OF GUIDANCE OVER THE NCENTRAL AND E WITH MORE LO CLDS/LK
MODERATION IN PERSISTENT LLVL N FLOW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015
MODELS STILL SHOWING POOR AGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY
WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY POSSIBLY SHIFTING THROUGH OR NEAR THE REGION
TUE INTO THU. THE 00Z/29 IS SHOWING THE MOST PRECIP AS A RESULT OF
SHOWING STRONGER ENERGY MORE DIRECTLY IMPACT THE CWA. HOWEVER...THE
GFS STILL ONLY SHOWS LESS THAN 0.05 INCHES OF RAIN TUE
EVENING...0.01-0.02 INCHES WED AFTERNOON...AND UP TO 0.15 INCHES
OVER THE FAR E LATE WED. LITTLE TO NO QPF SEEN FROM OTHER
MODELS...SO THE GFS IS MORE OF AN OUTLIER. THAT COMBINED WITH THE
FACT THAT THE LACK OF PRECIP HAS BEEN PERSISTENT LATELY...WILL NOT
INCLUDE PRECIP IN THE FORECAST. OF COURSE...THE STRENGTH AND TRACK
OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPS DUE TO BOTH
AIRMASS TEMPS AND A PRECIP/CLOUD COVER. TUE WILL BE WARMER THAN WED
AND THU AS MODELS DO AT LEAST AGREE THAT THE AIRMASS WILL BE COOLER
ON WED AND THU...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECIP/EXACT TEMPS FRI THROUGH SUN AS
WELL WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON FRI BEING BROKEN DOWN BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY/TROUGHING MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA. THE 12Z/26 ECMWF SHOWS
LESS THAN 0.05 INCHES OF QPF ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT ON FRI INTO FRI
NIGHT...BUT OTHER MODELS DO NOT SUPPORT THIS IDEA. GENERAL IDEA IS
THAT SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETAKE CONTROL ON SAT...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. PRECIP CHANCES ARE HIGHER ON SUN AS THE ECMWF
BRINGS A WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW. THE
AIRMASS DEFINITELY BECOMES WARMER INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT HOW MUCH
AND WHEN THE WARMEST CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED IS CLOUDED BY MODEL
DISAGREEMENT/VARIABILITY. COULD SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S OVER THE
W HALF ON ONE OR TWO DAYS FRI THROUGH SUN...PROBABLY OCCURING ON SAT
IF IT DOES END UP BEING DRY/SUNNY AS CURRENTLY SHOWN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH
NOCTURNAL COOLING...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO IMPACT MAINLY CMX AND
ESPECIALLY SAW...WHERE THE EXPECTED NNE WIND WILL HAVE THE STRONGER
UPSLOPE COMPONENT. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT SAW THAT MAY APPROACH
IFR FOR A NUMBER OF HOURS LATE IN THE NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.
IWD MAY ALSO SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS...BUT A DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT AND
THE LOCATION OF THE WRN EDGE OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
JUSTIFIES ONLY A SCT SKY FCST. SAW WILL SEE THE SLOWEST IMPROVEMENT
TODAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS NOT LIKELY UNTIL MID AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
EXPECT N WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MON...STRONGEST OVER THE E HALF OF
THE LAKE UNDER SHARPER PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HI PRES RIDGE ALIGNED
FROM NW ONTARIO THRU THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. AS THE HI PRES RIDGE
DRIFTS TO THE E LATER ON MON THRU TUE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH UNDER 15
KTS. A LO PRES TROF WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES TUE NIGHT AND THEN
GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER HI PRES RIDGE THRU THU. SINCE THE PRES GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE...WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW 15 KTS.
ALTHOUGH THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP A BIT ON FRI AHEAD OF
ANOTHER LO PRES TROF...HI STABILITY OVER THE CHILLY LAKE WATERS
SHOULD HOLDS WINDS UNDER 15 KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
322 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
EARLY MORNING US/CANADIAN RADAR COMPOSITE LOOP HAS BEEN SHOWING A
REGION OF SHOWERS ADVANCING ACROSS LAKE HURON AND THE THUMB. THESE
SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A COMPACT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOW
DROPPING INTO LAKE HURON FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE MAIN RIBBON OF
LARGE SCALE ASCENT VIA GOOD DCVA WILL PRECEDE THE WAVE...WHICH IS
FORECAST TO ROTATE ACROSS SE MI DURING THE COURSE OF THE MORNING.
THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL COLD POOL AND RESULTANT STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE THUMB AND POINTS EAST THIS
MORNING. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE POOL OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.
THUS THE GREATER COVERAGE OF EARLY MORNING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE THUMB INTO THE NORTHEASTERN DETROIT SUBURBS...WITH
COVERAGE DECREASING TO THE WEST. ANY HIGHER INTENSITY RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING WILL BE VERY BRIEF...SO OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO ONLY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS.
A MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE BUBBLE WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS SE MI THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORT WAVE. THE CORRESPONDING MID
LEVEL WARMING WILL REDUCE THE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTHS
SUBSTANTIALLY AND SUPPORTS THE CURRENT DRY FORECAST. SE MI WILL
REMAIN ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A BROAD REGION OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW EXTENDING ALL THE WAY TO NEW ENGLAND. UPSTREAM SATELLITE AND
SFC OBSERVATIONS TO THE NORTHEAST OF LAKE HURON SUGGEST AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY...WHICH WILL EVOLVE INTO A
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE STRATO CU FIELD UNDER THE MID LEVEL INVERSION THIS
AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...NAM AND RAP SOUNDINGS
STILL SUGGEST STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RISING MIXING
DEPTHS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S.
NORTHERLY WINDS OFF LAKE HURON WILL AGAIN KEEP THE SHORELINE LOCALS
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER.
LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL EASE ITS GRIP ON SE MI TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES INTO LOWER MI FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE /ALBEIT MUCH WEAKER/ WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS ERN
LOWER MI TONIGHT WITHIN THE PERSISTENT MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW.
THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY JUST LEAD TO SOME PERIODIC MID CLOUDS.
MODEL RH PROGS DO HOWEVER SUGGEST THE EROSION OF THE DIURNALLY
ENHANCED CU FIELD WILL TAKE WELL INTO THE NIGHT...LIKELY A RESULT
OF THE PERSISTENT INVERSION. THESE FACTORS WILL SUPPORT LEANING ON
THE HIGH END OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS /RANGING FROM THE MID
30S IN THE THUMB TO LOW 40S IN METRO DETROIT/.
&&
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
A MORE COMFORTABLE STRETCH OF SPRING WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH PREDOMINATELY DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING
TEMEPRATURES.
PERSISTENT STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD LET UP BRIEFLY AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD TUESDAY WITH TWO GOOD SURGES OF SUBSIDENCE AND A FAIRLY RAPID
LOSS IN DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS LOSS IN LOW CLOUD SHOULD ONLY BE
TEMPRORARY AS A GOOD SIGNAL EXISTS THAT LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE
WILL THEN BLOSSOM INTO A FAIRLY ROBUST DIURNAL CU RESPONSE. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE
60...ALTHOUGH AREAS HUGGING THE LAKESHORE WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER.
MUDDY MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND LACK OF FLOW IN THE COLUMN WILL
LEAD TO PERSISTENCE FOR WEDNESDAY. THE LOW LEVELS ARE FORECASTED TO
BE MARGINALLY DRIER WHILE THERE IS SOME SIGNAL FOR SOME MIDLEVEL
MOISTURE TO POOL OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE.
STILL EXPECTING SOME MIDCLOUD...BUT BETTER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 60S ON WEDNESDAY.
MODEL DATA IS AGGRESIVE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY/VORTICITY MAXIMUM
DROPPING STRAIGHT SOUTHWARD INTO THE LAKE MICHIGAN VICINITY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE BOOK HASNT BEEN WRITTEN YET ON
SPECIFICS WITH MODELS TRENDING WESTERLY WITH THE QPF AXIS.
REGARDLESS...FAIRLY ROBUST SHORTWAVE AND INBOUND TRAJECTORY OF AIR
PARCELS SUPPORT AN INCREASINGLY GOOD POTENTIAL FOR A COOL DOWN AND
RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. BUMPED POPS UPWARD FROM
THE OFFERED GRIDDED GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY COULD STRUGGLE
TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME TODAY AS THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH
AXIS SWINGS SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE STATE. A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE STATE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. THIS
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO YIELD A RUN OF WEAK WINDS OVER
THE MARINE AREAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A NEXT SURGE IN NORTHERLY
WINDS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK
SURFACE LOW OR TROUGH AXIS.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 104 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015
SOLID CLOUD SHIELD IS MAKE STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA. CEILING WILL LOWER AS A SECOND SURGE OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
ARRIVES IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY SPROUT
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT
THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS AS DRIER AIR INFILTRATES IN THE NEAR
SURFACE LAYER. WINDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY FROM THE NORTH.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS BELOW 5000 FT AFTER 10Z TONIGHT.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LHZ421-
441>443.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SC
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB
AVIATION.....MANN
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
108 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP CYC FLOW ARND
CLOSED LO CENTERED OVER NOVA SCOTIA EXTENDING W INTO THE UPR LKS AND
DOWNSTREAM OF UPR RDG IN THE PLAINS. SHRTWV EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPR
TROF IS NEAR THE SOO AND SHIFTING TO THE SSW IN THE NE UPR FLOW ARND
THE CLOSED LO. THIS DISTURBANCE IS BRINGING SOME CLDS TO ERN UPR
MI...BUT ANY ACCOMPANYING PCPN IS ON TRACK TO REMAIN TO THE E OF THE
CWA. THERE IS ANOTHER SHRTWV OVER WRN QUEBEC ROTATING TO THE WSW
ARND THE CLOSED LO. 12Z RAOB FM MOOSONEE ONTARIO SHOWED DEEP
SATURATION. UNDER THE TWO SHRTWVS NOTED TO THE E...THERE ARE PLENTY
OF LO CLDS E AND NE OF THE SOO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEEPER MSTR.
DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS FARTHER TO THE W AS SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB AND
INL RAOBS /12Z PWAT AT THOSE LOCATIONS WAS ABOUT 0.25 INCH AND AS
LITTLE AS 50 PCT OF NORMAL/ IS MAINTAINING MOSUNNY SKIES OVER MOST
OF THE CWA. TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 50S AWAY FM THE MODERATING
INFLUENCE OF LK SUP...BUT READINGS REMAIN NEAR 40 ALONG THE CHILLY
LK SUP SHORE.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR AREA OF
LO CLDS TO THE NE TO IMPACT UPR MI AND IMPACT ON TEMPS.
TNGT...AS SECOND SHRTWV NOW OVER WRN QUEBEC ROTATES SWWD AND OVER
FAR ERN UPR MI...THE LLVL FLOW IS FCST TO VEER MORE TO THE NE AND
ADVECT THE MORE COPIOUS LLVL MSTR INTO THE UPR LKS. IN CONCERT WITH
NOCTURNAL COOLING THAT WL END DEEP MIXING...EXPECT BKN-OVC LO CLDS
TO DVLP OVER MAINLY THE NCENTRAL AND ERN CWA AS INDICATED BY CURRENT
FCST. ALTHOUGH THE DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THIS SHRTWV
ARE FCST TO BRUSH THE ERN CWA...THE BULK OF THE MODELS INDICATE THE
PCPN WL REMAIN TO THE E OF THAT AREA WITH THE MID LVLS REMAINING TOO
DRY. SEVERAL OF THE HIER RES MODELS DO GENERATE SOME LGT PCPN OVER
MAINLY THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NCENTRAL...WHERE THE UPSLOPE FLOW WL
BE MAXIMIZED. OPTED TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF SOME DRIZZLE/FLURRIES IN
THESE AREAS LATE TNGT. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR
FAR W...WHICH WL BE FARTHER FM THE INCOMING HIER LLVL MSTR AND WHERE
DOWNSLOPE...MORE DIFFLUENT FLOW NEAR SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS WL
RESTRICT THE POTENTIAL FOR LO CLDS THAT WOULD ARRIVE LATER.
MON...WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND FCST LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVRN SHOWN
ON FCST SDNGS...EXPECT THE LO CLDS TO GRADUALLY MIX OUT. THIS
PROCESS WL BE SLOWEST OVER THE NCENTRAL AND E. H85 TEMPS WL BE CLOSE
TO 0C...SO MAX TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE 50S OVER THE INTERIOR W
AND SCENTRAL WITH DEEP MIXING. BUT HI TEMPS WL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE
LO END OF GUIDANCE OVER THE NCENTRAL AND E WITH MORE LO CLDS/LK
MODERATION IN PERSISTENT LLVL N FLOW.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
A DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED MOST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
IS DOMINANT FACTOR. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN VARIABLE...STARTING OUT WITH
A RIDGE ALOFT UPSTREAM OF LARGE UPPER LOW MOVING OFF THE EASTERN
CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. STRONG JET SURGING ACROSS WESTERN CANADA
BRINGS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SCNTRL CANADA ON MONDAY AND FM NORTHERN
ONTARIO TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. PRIMARY
WAVE SPLITS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE LINGERING
RIDGING FM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN QUEBEC. EXPECT DRY
WEATHER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF SHOWED SHORTWAVE DIVING
SSE ACROSS UPR LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT. THAT RUN OF ECMWF ALSO FORECASTED SUFFICIENT
H85-H7 RH TO GENERATE QPF OVER MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS WEDNESDAY
EVENING. GFS AND GEM-NH AND NOW THE 12Z ECMWF NOT AS BULLISH
THOUGH...KEEPING STRONGEST FORCING TO THE EAST. WILL NOT SHOW MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHANCES FAR EAST AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN CHILLY
TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHERLY GRADIENT WINDS NEAR
LK SUPERIOR. TEMPS MAY STILL TOUCH 60 DEGREES OVER INLAND AREAS NEAR
WI BORDER.
SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST BY THURSDAY PAVING THE WAY FOR RIDGING TO
EXPAND FM CNTRL PLAINS TO SCNTRL CANADA TOWARD WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
AS THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE MORE OF A LAKE BREEZE DAY AT LEAST
WEST...SO COOLING THERE WILL NOT BE AS EXPANSIVE AS WEDNESDAY.
ENOUGH GRADIENT NORTH WINDS EAST TO KEEP ANY LK MICHIGAN LAKE BREEZE
FROM DEVELOPING. DUE TO DEEPER MIXING...EXPECT HIGHS INLAND WEST TO
REACH LOW-MID 60S. SHOWED LOWEST DWPNTS/RH OVER INTERIOR WEST BUT
ALSO ALONG LK MICHIGAN WHERE PERSISTENT NORTH WINDS PROVIDE
DOWNSLOPE DRYING.
MORE STRONG JET ENERGY PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN CANADA WILL PROPEL
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER SCNTRL CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. UNLIKE THE WAVE EARLIER IN THE
WEEK...WAVE HOLDS TOGETHER WHILE PRESSING EAST AND THERE IS DECENT
MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG ASSOCIATED SFC-H85 TROUGH SWINGING TOWARD
UPPER GREAT LAKES. AFTER A WARM AND DRY DAY FOR FRIDAY WITH SOME
TEMPS REACHING LOWER 70S...SOME SHOWERS SHOULD SWING OVER THE CWA
LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...BUT DESPITE THE WARMTH AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM...THERE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH H85 THETA-E ADVECTION OR
FORECAST INSTABILITY TO PUT ANY TSRA IN ALONG THE TROUGH. SEEMS
MODELS ARE LOCKING ONTO THIS IDEA OF SOME SHRA THOUGH WITH SIMILAR
TIMING IN TROUGH PASSAGE. CARRIED LOW CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
INTO NEXT WEEKEND...GFS QUICKER WITH PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
OVER SCNTRL CANADA...SO IT SHOWS ANOTHER SFC TROUGH AND WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION/QPF INTO WESTERN LAKES AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT. 00Z
ECMWF APPEARED MORE REASONABLE BY SHOWING SLOWER PROGRESSION OF MAIN
TROUGHING AND DEVELOPING A SFC WARM FRONT FM NORTHERN PLAINS TO
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON LEADING EDGE OF VERY WARM AIR. 00Z
ECMWF WOULD INDICATE DUE TO THE MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT TO THE
NORTH OF WARM FRONT COULD SEE CHANCES OF ELEVATED SHOWERS SPREAD
TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. BETTER CHANCE
FOR TSRA WOULD BE CLOSER...BUT PROBABLY WOULD SET UP JUST SOUTH OF
UPPER LAKES CLOSER TO GRADIENT OF 1-2K J/KG MUCAPE AREA FM CNTRL
PLAINS TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LATEST ECMWF IS A MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN PLOWING MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT INTO UPR
LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LEANED ON CONSENSUS BUT DID
INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY GIVEN THAT TREND. DID NOT PUT TSRA
IN FORECAST YET THOUGH THOUGH BASED ON H85 THETA-E AND GRADIENT OF
MUCAPE FM THE 12Z ECMWF IT COULD OCCUR OVER THE AREA. GIVEN H85
TEMPS WARMING ABOVE +10C...TEMPS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY COULD RISE
AT LEAST INTO THE LOW 70S MOST AREAS AWAY FM ANY COOLING FM THE
LAKES. BASED ON 12Z RUNS OF MODELS...THINK BEST CHANCE FOR WARMING
WILL BE ON SATURDAY AFTN IN WAKE OF FRIDAY NIGHT SYSTEM WITH
WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND INCREASING SUNSHINE/DRYING. TEMPS ON
SUNDAY WILL DEPEND ON SHRA AND CLOUD COVERAGE. LEANED ON CONSENSUS
TEMPS /HIGHS MAINLY 60S/ MORE THAN SATURDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES OF
RAIN BY THAT POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH
NOCTURNAL COOLING...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO IMPACT MAINLY CMX AND
ESPECIALLY SAW...WHERE THE EXPECTED NNE WIND WILL HAVE THE STRONGER
UPSLOPE COMPONENT. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT SAW THAT MAY APPROACH
IFR FOR A NUMBER OF HOURS LATE IN THE NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.
IWD MAY ALSO SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS...BUT A DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT AND
THE LOCATION OF THE WRN EDGE OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
JUSTIFIES ONLY A SCT SKY FCST. SAW WILL SEE THE SLOWEST IMPROVEMENT
TODAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS NOT LIKELY UNTIL MID AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
EXPECT N WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MON...STRONGEST OVER THE E HALF OF
THE LAKE UNDER SHARPER PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HI PRES RIDGE ALIGNED
FROM NW ONTARIO THRU THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. AS THE HI PRES RIDGE
DRIFTS TO THE E LATER ON MON THRU TUE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH UNDER 15
KTS. A LO PRES TROF WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES TUE NIGHT AND THEN
GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER HI PRES RIDGE THRU THU. SINCE THE PRES GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE...WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW 15 KTS.
ALTHOUGH THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP A BIT ON FRI AHEAD OF
ANOTHER LO PRES TROF...HI STABILITY OVER THE CHILLY LAKE WATERS
SHOULD HOLDS WINDS UNDER 15 KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
412 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
TONIGHT AND LINGER OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF
COAST...THEN TRACK UP THE SOUTHEAST AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WED
THROUGH THU.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM MONDAY...
TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN RECENT DAYS...BUT STILL BELOW AVG OWING TO
THE INFLUENCE OF BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AROUND A DEEP...MEAN TROUGH
CENTERED NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. A COUPLE OF NOTABLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ROTATING AROUND THE WSW QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LOW WILL PIVOT ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. THE FIRST...INITIALLY OVER CENTRAL
IN...WILL TRACK ESE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND NORTHERN NC...TO
NEAR THE NC OUTER BANKS BY 18Z. THE TRAILING ONE...INITIALLY OVER
LAKE MI...WILL TAKE A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERLY TRACK ACROSS THE
VIRGINIAS TONIGHT. WHILE MOISTURE WITH BOTH WILL BE LIMITED...
MARGINALLY COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIURNAL
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A BRIEF UPTICK OF
SHALLOW CU BASED AROUND 7-8 THOUSAND FT OVER THE NE PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT CU
WILL DEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY TO GENERATE A FEW MEASURABLE SHOWERS WITH
THE LEAD VORT MAX ACROSS THOSE SAME AREAS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...A DEEP AND DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER -ONE INCREASINGLY SO WITH
TIME WITH DIURNAL HEATING- SHOULD CAUSE ANY ASSOCIATED SPRINKLE TO
EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE SFC...IF ANY EVEN DEVELOP AMIDST LIGHT
NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE NW...AND
OTHERWISE DEEP DRYNESS. HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES AND RESULT IN LIGHT NW STIRRING OR BRIEF PERIODS OF
CALM...WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 40S. SOME UPPER 30S WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF/WHERE WINDS GO CALM FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME...HOWEVER...
GIVEN PROJECTED LL THICKNESS VALUES NEAR 1325 M AND JUST PASSING
THIN CIRRUS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 AM MONDAY...
AN UPPER LOW INITIALLY OVER NM WILL MIGRATE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY...WHILE S/W RIDGING ALOFT BRIEFLY EXPANDS
ACROSS THE SE STATES IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW. DRY SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONSEQUENTLY BUILD ACROSS AND LINGER OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH EARLY TUE NIGHT...THEN YIELD TO TOP-DOWN MOISTENING
AHEAD OF SFC LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND GRADUALLY DEEPEN
FROM THE WESTERN GOM AND ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED CIRRUS ON TUE WILL PROGRESSIVELY THICKEN AND LOWER
OVERNIGHT AND CULMINATE IN A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PIEDMONT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK WED. HIGHS GENERALLY 65 TO 70
DEGREES. LOW TEMPS...INITIALLY DRIVEN BY RADIATIONAL COOLING BEFORE
CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER AND CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO STEADY OR RISE
SLIGHTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...ONLY TO EVAPORATIONALLY COOL WHERE RAIN
OCCURS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK...IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...
AN UNSETTLED START TO THE LONG TERM AS WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A
CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW HELPING TO DEVELOP AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST
AFFECTING CENTRAL NC FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY
INTO FRIDAY. A SOMEWHAT NON-TRADITIONAL IN-SITU CAD SCENARIO WILL
SET UP AS OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION FALLS INTO A DRIER AIRMASS BELOW
WHICH WILL COOL THE LOW LEVELS SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS WILL DETER ANY
SEVERE THREAT DESPITE PLENTY OF FORCING ON MULTIPLE LEVELS. WHILE
DETAILS ON THE TIMING ARE STILL COMING INTO AGREEMENT...THE GENERAL
SCENARIO WILL HAVE RAIN MOVING INTO THE SW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES UP THE CAROLINA COAST. BOTH
MODELS ARE PRODUCING 2 DAY QPF TOTALS OF CLOSE TO AN INCH SO SOME
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. DETAILS START TO
BLUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS BOTH MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW DIVING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA BUT THE GFS PRODUCES A MUCH
STRONGER CUTOFF LOW THAN THE ECMWF BUT THE UPSHOT WILL GENERALLY BE
THE SAME WHICH IS SOME LINGERING LIGHTER PRECIPITATION INTO
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT AND RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST...HELPING TO DRY THINGS OUT FOR THE WEEKEND. THE PROGRESSION OF
THE SURFACE HIGH IS YET TO BE DETERMINED BUT SUFFICE TO SAY THAT
THERE WILL BE A DRYING AND WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THEREFORE TEMPERATURES START OUT MIDWEEK IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
FOR HIGHS UNDER THE CAD AIRMASS BUT WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND WILL FEEL MORE LIKE MAY AND LESS LIKE
MARCH.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM MONDAY...
CLEARING OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND
CONSEQUENT NEAR SATURATED CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE MAY RESULT IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY SUB-VFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS...BUT HEAVY DEW WILL BE MORE PREVALENT THAN FOG OWING
TO SHARPLY DRIER AIR JUST ABOVE THE MOIST SURFACE LAYER.
OTHERWISE... CALM TO LIGHT W TO WNW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
NW AND INCREASE INTO THE 8-14 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTINESS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS IN THE SEVERAL HOURS PRIOR TO
SUNSET. SKIES WILL BE RELATIVELY CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ASIDE
FROM MAINLY FEW-SCT SHALLOW CUMULIFORM CLOUDS AROUND 7-8 THOUSAND
FT...WITH RELATIVE GREATEST COVERAGE FROM KRWI AND POINTS
NORTHEASTWARD...WHERE A BRIEF BKN CEILING AT THAT HEIGHT WILL BE
POSSIBLE MID-LATE AFTERNOON OWING TO THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED RELATIVE STRONGEST LIFT AND MOISTURE OVER
NE NC AND SE VA.
OUTLOOK: A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE
OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN WED-THU...WITH THE RELATIVE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AND LOWEST AND LONGEST SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS...AT EASTERN TAF SITES.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
221 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
.DISCUSSION...FCST UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TORNADO WATCH IN
EFFECT UNITL 14Z MONDAY FOR THE NRN COUNTIES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 100 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/
DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...IFR/MVFR VISIBILITIES OWING TO FOG/MIST GENERALLY EAST
OF U.S. 281 IN ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACRS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A LINE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...CURRENTLY IN ADVANCE OF THE
BOUNDARY...WL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD OVERNIGHT AND AFFECT MAINLY THE
NRN SECTIONS. EXPECT IFR/MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASING N/NW WIND
AND DRYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED DRG THE LATE MORNING/AFTN HOURS
MONDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED GRIDS TO FIT BETTER WITH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. DID LOWER TEMPERATURES IN A COUPLE OF
LOCATIONS (MAINLY NORTH AND WEST). LAPS DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW
STRONG CAP. NEW NAM12 IS SHOWING CONVECTION ENTERING NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF CWFA MAINLY BETWEEN 09Z- 12Z...THEN WEAKENS IT AS IT
KEEPS A PRETTY STRONG CAP IN PLACE. THUS...HAVE KEPT POPS AS-IS
SINCE EARLY EVENING UPDATE...KEEPING CHANCE TO THE NORTH AND
SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE SOUTH. NEW HRRR IS KEEPING CONVECTION OUT OF
ARE THROUGH 12Z. WE SHALL SEE. UNFORTUNATELY, WE WILL HAVE TO
SEE...BUT STILL SUSPECT ANY STRONG CONVECTION LIKELY OVER THE
NORTHERN AREAS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT...POSSIBLY STRONG WITH SEVERE
NOT BEING RULED OUT (BUT FEEL BETTER CHANCES STAY TO THE NORTH
WITH LEFT-FRONT QUAD OF UPPER JET POSITION). PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
ISSUED. NO NOTABLE CHANGES TO THE COASTAL WATER FORECAST AT THIS
TIME...ALTHOUGH DID ADD FOG TO THE OFFSHORE AS WELL. CWF WILL BE
ISSUED AROUND 10 PM.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 732 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/
DISCUSSION...SOUNDING JUST CAME IN WITH STRONG CAP (23.8C AT
850MB). THE 64K DOLLAR QUESTION IS WILL THIS CAP HOLD OR WILL
CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS IN THE HILL COUNTRY BE ABLE TO MAKE IT
INTO THE CWFA (AND HOW FAR SOUTH). MESO-SCALE MODELS GIVE AREA A
BRUSH OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS (MORE STRONG) WITH SYNOPTIC MODELS
BEING A BIT MORE ROBUST WITH CONVECTION A BIT FARTHER SOUTH.
BELIEVE AT THIS TIME IS THAT STRONG TO POSSIBLY ISOLATED SEVERE
CONVECION MAY OCCUR OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN AREAS
LATE TONIGHT/TOWARD MORNING...WITH CAP LIKELY HOLDING ENOUGH TO
PRECULDE STRONGER CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST.
HOWEVER...WITH STILL UNCERTAINTY HAVE HELD OFF ON MENTIONING
SEVERE AT THIS TIME (SEEMS THAT EL-NINO CAN BRING SOME BONUS
CONVECTION AT TIMES). HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND LOOK
AT NEW MODEL DATA AND ADJUST ACCORINGLY/AS-NEEDED. HAVE UPDATED
GRIDS TO LOWER POPS THIS EVENING (KEPT POPS AS-IS OVERNIGHT)...BUT
ALSO INCLUDED FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN AREAS AS FOG IS
ALREADY FORMING (MAYBE COMBINATION OF HAZE AND FOG) SO HAVE
UPDATED FORECAST. DID NOT MESS WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES JUST YET.
PRODUCTS ARE OUT.
MARINE...INCLUDED FOG FOR THE COASTALS...AND WILL WRITE A MWS
CONCERNING FOG CONCERNS (AND IF WORSENS WILL ISSUE MWW...DENSE FOG
ADVIOSORY). WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCEC/SCA TONIGHT BUT WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR IN CASE ANY RISE/FALL COUPLETS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/
DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATION BRIEFING.
AVIATION...VFR NEXT 24 HRS AT KLRD. IFR/LIFR THIS EVENING AND
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HRS FOR KCRP/KVCT/KALI. THICK HAZE WILL
EXPAND INLAND FROM THE COAST THIS EVENING ALONG WITH STRATUS
RESULTING IN IFR/LIFR VSBYS/CIGS FOR EASTERN HALF OF S TX. SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PUSH SE ACROSS KLRD AOA 06Z AND REACH KALI/KCRP/KVCT
AROUND 09-11Z. CIGS AND VSBYS XPCTD TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER SFC
TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH. SCT CONVECTION MAY DVLP TONIGHT ACROSS TX
HILL COUNTRY AND SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT /AHEAD OF BOUNDARY/ AND
IMPACT KVCT BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...AS SUCH HAVE PROB30 FOR
CONVECTION IN TAF. KCRP/KLRD/KALI XPCTD TO REMAIN DRY AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...FUTURE TAF PKGS/AMENDMENTS MAY NEED TO INCLUDE
CONVECTION FOR LATE TONIGHT FOR KCRP/KALI. MAIN COLD FRONT WILL
THEN PUSH THROUGH TERMINALS A FEW HOURS AFTER SFC TROUGH RESULTING
IN CLEARING SKIES FOR MOST OF MON AND NW SFC WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 85 66 76 56 76 / 30 10 10 10 0
VICTORIA 84 62 73 52 75 / 50 10 10 10 0
LAREDO 90 64 78 56 80 / 20 10 10 10 0
ALICE 89 64 77 55 78 / 30 10 10 10 0
ROCKPORT 80 66 74 59 74 / 40 10 10 10 0
COTULLA 88 61 77 52 79 / 30 10 10 10 0
KINGSVILLE 87 65 77 56 78 / 30 10 10 10 0
NAVY CORPUS 81 67 74 61 74 / 30 10 10 10 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
WC/87...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
100 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...IFR/MVFR VISIBILITIES OWING TO FOG/MIST GENERALLY EAST
OF U.S. 281 IN ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACRS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A LINE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...CURRENTLY IN ADVANCE OF THE
BOUNDARY...WL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD OVERNIGHT AND AFFECT MAINLY THE
NRN SECTIONS. EXPECT IFR/MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASING N/NW WIND
AND DRYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED DRG THE LATE MORNING/AFTN HOURS
MONDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED GRIDS TO FIT BETTER WITH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. DID LOWER TEMPERATURES IN A COUPLE OF
LOCATIONS (MAINLY NORTH AND WEST). LAPS DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW
STRONG CAP. NEW NAM12 IS SHOWING CONVECTION ENTERING NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF CWFA MAINLY BETWEEN 09Z- 12Z...THEN WEAKENS IT AS IT
KEEPS A PRETTY STRONG CAP IN PLACE. THUS...HAVE KEPT POPS AS-IS
SINCE EARLY EVENING UPDATE...KEEPING CHANCE TO THE NORTH AND
SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE SOUTH. NEW HRRR IS KEEPING CONVECTION OUT OF
ARE THROUGH 12Z. WE SHALL SEE. UNFORTUNATELY, WE WILL HAVE TO
SEE...BUT STILL SUSPECT ANY STRONG CONVECTION LIKELY OVER THE
NORTHERN AREAS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT...POSSIBLY STRONG WITH SEVERE
NOT BEING RULED OUT (BUT FEEL BETTER CHANCES STAY TO THE NORTH
WITH LEFT-FRONT QUAD OF UPPER JET POSITION). PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
ISSUED. NO NOTABLE CHANGES TO THE COASTAL WATER FORECAST AT THIS
TIME...ALTHOUGH DID ADD FOG TO THE OFFSHORE AS WELL. CWF WILL BE
ISSUED AROUND 10 PM.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 732 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/
DISCUSSION...SOUNDING JUST CAME IN WITH STRONG CAP (23.8C AT
850MB). THE 64K DOLLAR QUESTION IS WILL THIS CAP HOLD OR WILL
CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS IN THE HILL COUNTRY BE ABLE TO MAKE IT
INTO THE CWFA (AND HOW FAR SOUTH). MESO-SCALE MODELS GIVE AREA A
BRUSH OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS (MORE STRONG) WITH SYNOPTIC MODELS
BEING A BIT MORE ROBUST WITH CONVECTION A BIT FARTHER SOUTH.
BELIEVE AT THIS TIME IS THAT STRONG TO POSSIBLY ISOLATED SEVERE
CONVECION MAY OCCUR OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN AREAS
LATE TONIGHT/TOWARD MORNING...WITH CAP LIKELY HOLDING ENOUGH TO
PRECULDE STRONGER CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST.
HOWEVER...WITH STILL UNCERTAINTY HAVE HELD OFF ON MENTIONING
SEVERE AT THIS TIME (SEEMS THAT EL-NINO CAN BRING SOME BONUS
CONVECTION AT TIMES). HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND LOOK
AT NEW MODEL DATA AND ADJUST ACCORINGLY/AS-NEEDED. HAVE UPDATED
GRIDS TO LOWER POPS THIS EVENING (KEPT POPS AS-IS OVERNIGHT)...BUT
ALSO INCLUDED FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN AREAS AS FOG IS
ALREADY FORMING (MAYBE COMBINATION OF HAZE AND FOG) SO HAVE
UPDATED FORECAST. DID NOT MESS WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES JUST YET.
PRODUCTS ARE OUT.
MARINE...INCLUDED FOG FOR THE COASTALS...AND WILL WRITE A MWS
CONCERNING FOG CONCERNS (AND IF WORSENS WILL ISSUE MWW...DENSE FOG
ADVIOSORY). WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCEC/SCA TONIGHT BUT WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR IN CASE ANY RISE/FALL COUPLETS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/
DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATION BRIEFING.
AVIATION...VFR NEXT 24 HRS AT KLRD. IFR/LIFR THIS EVENING AND
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HRS FOR KCRP/KVCT/KALI. THICK HAZE WILL
EXPAND INLAND FROM THE COAST THIS EVENING ALONG WITH STRATUS
RESULTING IN IFR/LIFR VSBYS/CIGS FOR EASTERN HALF OF S TX. SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PUSH SE ACROSS KLRD AOA 06Z AND REACH KALI/KCRP/KVCT
AROUND 09-11Z. CIGS AND VSBYS XPCTD TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER SFC
TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH. SCT CONVECTION MAY DVLP TONIGHT ACROSS TX
HILL COUNTRY AND SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT /AHEAD OF BOUNDARY/ AND
IMPACT KVCT BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...AS SUCH HAVE PROB30 FOR
CONVECTION IN TAF. KCRP/KLRD/KALI XPCTD TO REMAIN DRY AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...FUTURE TAF PKGS/AMENDMENTS MAY NEED TO INCLUDE
CONVECTION FOR LATE TONIGHT FOR KCRP/KALI. MAIN COLD FRONT WILL
THEN PUSH THROUGH TERMINALS A FEW HOURS AFTER SFC TROUGH RESULTING
IN CLEARING SKIES FOR MOST OF MON AND NW SFC WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 85 66 77 56 75 / 30 10 10 10 0
VICTORIA 84 62 74 52 74 / 50 10 10 10 0
LAREDO 90 64 78 56 80 / 10 10 10 10 0
ALICE 89 64 78 55 77 / 30 10 10 10 0
ROCKPORT 80 66 74 59 73 / 40 10 10 10 0
COTULLA 88 61 77 52 78 / 20 10 10 10 0
KINGSVILLE 87 65 79 56 77 / 30 10 10 10 0
NAVY CORPUS 81 67 75 61 73 / 30 10 10 10 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
WC/87...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1008 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY VISIT THE AREA DURING
MIDWEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...WITH IMPROVEMENTS FOR THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...
SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS AN
ELONGATED TROUGH AND ATTENDANT STRETCHED MID-LEVEL ENERGY REARWARD
OF THE NEARLY-STACKED LOW SE OF NEWFOUNDLAND SWEEP ACROSS S NEW
ENGLAND. MAIN FOCUS IS TOWARDS EVENING AS THE LOW BACKBUILDS INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE. ACCOMPANYING STOUT MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND UPPER-
LEVEL JET STREAK WILL INVOKE STRONG FORCING ALONG A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HRRR TRENDS AS WE GO INTO EVENING.
LIKELY TO HIGH CATEGORICAL POPS MAINLY E OF THE CT-RIVER VALLEY.
PUNCH OF COLDER AIR S/SW AS WINDS TURN BLUSTERY OUT OF THE N/NE.
MORE DETAILS IN THE /TONIGHT/ DISCUSSION BELOW.
SO FOR TODAY...ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS WHICH WOULD
YIELD SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ON THE ORDER OF A TRACE TO A
COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS. TEMPERATURES KEPT AT BELOW-SEASONABLE LEVELS
AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-50S...COOLER ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND
ALONG THE COAST. SADLY NOT VERY SPRING-LIKE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF MAKES ITS CLOSET APPROACH TO
S NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...THEN STARTS TO ROTATE BACK OUT TO
SEA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS IT DOES...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
GETS INTO A PATTERN OF DECREASING MOISTURE. IN TURN...THIS MEANS A
LOWER RISK FOR RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION IF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
ENOUGH...AND WE SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE...WHERE SEABREEZES COULD
DEVELOP. THAT WOULD HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE
COASTS. AT THIS TIME...THINKING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED.
TEMPERATURES RISE SLIGHTLY TUESDAY WITH THE ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE...
BUT SHOULD STILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
* DIGGING TROUGH/COASTAL LOW ON THURS/FRIDAY BRINGS BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS
* IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE WEEKEND
OVERVIEW...
CLOSED LOW WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW WILL
EJECT OFFSHORE BY TUES ALLOWING FOR BRIEF RIDGING ON WED. STILL
WATCHING TWO SYSTEMS WHICH WILL PUT THE NORTHEAST BACK INTO A DEEP
TROUGH BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE
NORTHERN STREAM PHASES WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WHICH HAS ALLOWED
FOR LARGE MODEL SPREAD OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. OVERALL THE 00Z
GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWS A STRONGER OH VLY/MID ATLC UPPER LOW THUS
LEADING TO A FARTHER WESTWARD SURFACE TRACK THURSDAY. THE 00Z GFS
IS LOOKING LIKE A DEEP EXTREME WITH ITS UPR LOW THOUGH...WITH THE
GEFS MEAN AND NEW ECMWF SUPPORTING MORE MODERATE DEPTH. THEREFORE
BELIEVE GFS TO BE AN OUTLIER COMPARED THE OTHER GUIDANCE AND TRENDED
TOWARDS WPC/EC/UKMET. ONCE THE SYSTEMS PHASE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
APPEARS THAT THIS COASTAL LOW WILL STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z EC ENSEMBLES. BEGINNING OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENTS AS CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE WILL MOVE
EASTWARD.
DETAILS...
* WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH A WEAK RIDGE OVER
THE REGION. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND A BREAK IN PRECIP
AND TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE COOLER THANKS TO
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
* THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE 4 CORNERS AND
THE DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES. REGARDLESS APPEARS DEEP
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP PUTTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BACK BELOW NORMAL
FOR TEMPS. THIS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS
AND PUSH NORTHWARDS. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER STALLING THE
LOW INSIDE THE BENCHMARK FOR SEVERAL HOURS. TRENDED TOWARDS THE
CONSISTENT EC WHICH STILL KEEPS IT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK...YET SLIGHTLY STRONGER THEN PREV RUNS. BELIEVE THURS AND
FRI WILL BE MORE HIT OF MISS SHOWERS AND CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHER
POPS ALONG THE CAPE AND ISLANDS FOR COASTAL SYSTEM. ALSO KNOCKED
TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM GUIDANCE AS CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DIURNAL
HEATING.
* THE WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY AS WEAK
RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. MAY NEED TO WATCH QUICK MOVING
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WHICH COULD GIVE SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL HOPING FOR A NICE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL.
* MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY IS LOOKING WARM BUT STILL UNCERTAIN ON PRECIP CHANCES AS
PATTERN WILL ALL BE DEPENDENT ON THE THURS/FRI SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
.SHORT-TERM /TILL 0Z WEDNESDAY/...
14Z UPDATE...
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW-END VFR CIGS MAINLY.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH -SHRA...ACROSS E MA / RI...DEVELOPING
TOWARDS EVENING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. LOW-RISK IFR FOR CAPE.
NW-WINDS BACKING N-NE BECOMING BLUSTERY.
TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CIGS IMPROVE TO LOW-END VFR. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST. REMAINS
BLUSTERY OUT N TURNING NW.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEABREEZE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BACK NE TOWARDS EVENING WITH BETTER SHRA
CHANCES.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS. SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF COASTLINE.
CIGS/VSBYS COULD BE LOWER DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
.SHORT-TERM /TILL TUESDAY EVENING/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING.
WINDS AND SEAS START TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY A AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE WATERS.
ENOUGH NORTHERLY GRADIENT ANTICIPATED TUESDAY THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MASSACHUSETTS SHORELINE. WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FOR SOME OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHERE CONFIDENCE IS GREATEST. THIS
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FARTHER WEST WITH LATER
FORECASTS.
.OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY...GOOD BOATING WEATHER AS WIND AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGES FROM THE
CAROLINA COASTLINE AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW CLOSE THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM
MAKES IT TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. IF IT STAYS WELL
OFFSHORE...SWELLS COULD BRING A PERIOD OF ROUGH SEAS TO OUR COASTAL
WATERS. A CLOSER APPROACH WOULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS FOR
FRIDAY. AGAIN HAVE UNDERCUT WNA WAVE GUIDANCE BY 40 TO 50
PERCENT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ232.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
FOR ANZ231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY
FOR ANZ250-254-255.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ251.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1033 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015
...UPDATED TO ADD MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY...
.UPDATE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE NATURE COAST IS CONTINUING
TO PRODUCE SHOWERS FROM CITRUS COUNTY NORTHWARD. THIS BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY WITH SHOWERS
SPREADING OVER TAMPA BAY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON OURS. THE 12Z SOUNDING IS SHOWING ABUNDANT MOISTURE
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH 1.69 INCHES PWAT. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE MOST EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE
FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD AND CLEAR TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FARTHER
SOUTHWARD. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL IS DEPICTING THE RAIN COVERAGE
WELL THIS MORNING OVER THE NATURE COAST AND HAS IT SPREADING
REGION WIDE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. FORECAST POPS THROUGH 18Z LOOK
GOOD FOR NOW WITH 60-70 PERCENT NORTH OF TAMPA BAY AND TAPERING
BACK TO 20-40 PERCENT DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL KEEP
FORECAST AS IS FOR NOW AND MAKE CHANGES AS NECESSARY BASED ON
UPDATED RADAR AND MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WILL IMPACT
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OVER THE NORTHERN MOST TERMINALS THROUGH
19Z. RAINFALL WILL SPREAD FARTHER SOUTH AFTER 19Z SO WILL KEEP
VCTS IN THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS DURING THAT PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE OVERNIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL MOVES IN
TOMORROW WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST
OF THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND
REDEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WEST TO
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CREATE MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS AND THE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 87 75 82 73 / 50 60 80 70
FMY 91 74 87 75 / 30 20 60 70
GIF 85 71 84 71 / 50 40 80 70
SRQ 85 73 84 74 / 40 40 70 80
BKV 84 67 81 68 / 70 60 80 70
SPG 85 75 81 74 / 50 50 80 80
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE- COASTAL
MANATEE- COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
918 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015
.UPDATE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE NATURE COAST IS CONTINUING
TO PRODUCE SHOWERS FROM CITRUS COUNTY NORTHWARD. THIS BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY WITH SHOWERS
SPREADING OVER TAMPA BAY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON OURS. THE 12Z SOUNDING IS SHOWING ABUNDANT MOISTURE
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH 1.69 INCHES PWAT. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE MOST EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE
FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD AND CLEAR TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FARTHER
SOUTHWARD. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL IS DEPICTING THE RAIN COVERAGE
WELL THIS MORNING OVER THE NATURE COAST AND HAS IT SPREADING
REGION WIDE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. FORECAST POPS THROUGH 18Z LOOK
GOOD FOR NOW WITH 60-70 PERCENT NORTH OF TAMPA BAY AND TAPERING
BACK TO 20-40 PERCENT DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL KEEP
FORECAST AS IS FOR NOW AND MAKE CHANGES AS NECESSARY BASED ON
UPDATED RADAR AND MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WILL IMPACT
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OVER THE NORTHERN MOST TERMINALS THROUGH
19Z. RAINFALL WILL SPREAD FARTHER SOUTH AFTER 19Z SO WILL KEEP
VCTS IN THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS DURING THAT PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE OVERNIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL MOVES IN
TOMORROW WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST
OF THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND
REDEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WEST TO
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CREATE MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS AND THE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 87 75 82 73 / 50 60 80 70
FMY 91 74 87 75 / 30 20 60 70
GIF 85 71 84 71 / 50 40 80 70
SRQ 85 73 84 74 / 40 40 70 80
BKV 84 67 81 68 / 70 60 80 70
SPG 85 75 81 74 / 50 50 80 80
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1053 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1049 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE MAJORITY OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS, WITH SOME
CIRRUS STREAMING ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AND TEMPERATURES ON THEIR WAY TO A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN MOST PLACES. QUIET WEATHER DOMINATES WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. NO UPDATES TO THE
FORECAST ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A HIGH CENTERED IN WESTERN ONTARIO
INTO WEST CENTRAL IL WILL KEEP US COOL AND GENERALLY CLEAR TODAY.
THE RAP AND HRRR BOTH INDICATE THAT SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP IN
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
IN EAST CENTRAL IL. IN ADDITION, PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
RESULT IN PERIODICALLY GUSTY NORTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF
THE SURFACE RIDGING AND A DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
LATE APRIL.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
GENERAL NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO MID
WEEK...AS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES
TO WOBBLE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. DESPITE THIS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 60S THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NEW MEXICO WILL DRIFT EAST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BUT THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINS
WELL TO OUR SOUTH. MEANWHILE...A LARGE UPPER WAVE OVER WESTERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND CENTRAL MONTANA THIS MORNING WILL BE REACHING THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY EVENING. EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD BEEN STRUGGLING
WITH A PIECE OF ENERGY PINCHING OFF SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY AS THE
WAVE ARRIVED...BUT LATEST RUNS SHOW A SIZABLE UPPER LOW DROPPING
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH...AS THE CIRCULATION AROUND IT COULD RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS
OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN CWA BY THURSDAY...BUT GENERAL CONSENSUS
NOW KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION JUST TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER, IT WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS IN THE 60S...BEFORE A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
WEEKEND PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN A CHALLENGE...WITH THE GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR MCS ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY
AS WEAK UPPER IMPULSES ZIP THROUGH. HAVE KEPT SATURDAY POP`S IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE...WHILE INCREASING THEM ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY AS A STRONGER WAVE ARRIVES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN ALL OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS, ALONG WITH THE MANY OF
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS, INDICATE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIFT ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CUMULUS IN THE EASTERN
HALF OF IL FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE ONLY CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE WITH PERIODS OF WIND GUSTS
ANTICIPATED AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MIXES FROM 15Z THROUGH 00/01Z.
THE RESULTING MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL PRODUCE SUSTAINED NORTH
WINDS OF 12-15 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
638 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A HIGH CENTERED IN WESTERN ONTARIO
INTO WEST CENTRAL IL WILL KEEP US COOL AND GENERALLY CLEAR TODAY.
THE RAP AND HRRR BOTH INDICATE THAT SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP IN
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
IN EAST CENTRAL IL. IN ADDITION, PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
RESULT IN PERIODICALLY GUSTY NORTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF
THE SURFACE RIDGING AND A DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
LATE APRIL.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
GENERAL NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO MID
WEEK...AS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES
TO WOBBLE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. DESPITE THIS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 60S THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NEW MEXICO WILL DRIFT EAST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BUT THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINS
WELL TO OUR SOUTH. MEANWHILE...A LARGE UPPER WAVE OVER WESTERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND CENTRAL MONTANA THIS MORNING WILL BE REACHING THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY EVENING. EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD BEEN STRUGGLING
WITH A PIECE OF ENERGY PINCHING OFF SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY AS THE
WAVE ARRIVED...BUT LATEST RUNS SHOW A SIZABLE UPPER LOW DROPPING
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH...AS THE CIRCULATION AROUND IT COULD RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS
OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN CWA BY THURSDAY...BUT GENERAL CONSENSUS
NOW KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION JUST TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER, IT WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS IN THE 60S...BEFORE A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
WEEKEND PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN A CHALLENGE...WITH THE GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR MCS ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY
AS WEAK UPPER IMPULSES ZIP THROUGH. HAVE KEPT SATURDAY POP`S IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE...WHILE INCREASING THEM ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY AS A STRONGER WAVE ARRIVES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN ALL OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS, ALONG WITH THE MANY OF
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS, INDICATE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIFT ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CUMULUS IN THE EASTERN
HALF OF IL FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE ONLY CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE WITH PERIODS OF WIND GUSTS
ANTICIPATED AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MIXES FROM 15Z THROUGH 00/01Z.
THE RESULTING MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL PRODUCE SUSTAINED NORTH
WINDS OF 12-15 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
551 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015
RAINFALL IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA IS MOVING OUT FASTER
THAN ANTICIPATED. SO UPDATED TO REDUCE THE POPS EVEN FASTER THAN
BEFORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE HOW FAST PRECIPITATION ENDS AND CLEARING
BEGINS TODAY AND ITS AFFECTS ON THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...LOW
TEMPERATURES THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
TUESDAY...AND HOW MUCH THE WARMUP WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SATELLITE SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WITH AMPLIFIED FLOW
EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
AT JET LEVEL...ALL THE MODELS WERE CLOSE ON THE JET WITH THE NAM AND
THE ECMWF DOING A LITTLE BETTER. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS NOT TOO BAD
AT MID LEVELS WITH THE GFS...CANADIAN AND UKMET DOING THE BEST. THE
NAM WAS DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE
GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE CANADIAN AND NAM ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...RAINFALL HAS ALREADY ENDED OVER THE NORTHEAST TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA AS THE LAST BAND OF RAINFALL CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTH AND WEST. THIS IS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. MOST MODEL OUTPUT NO
MATTER HOW WELL IT IS CURRENTLY DOING ON THE POSITION OF THE
RAINFALL...ENDS THE RAINFALL BY 18Z. THE HRRR IS DOING THE BEST ON
ITS POSITION AT THIS TIME. BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND
HRRR...WILL LOWER THE POPS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY AND HAVE
THEM END BY LATE IN THE MORNING. WILL END UP HAVING SOME KIND OF
FOG MENTION THROUGH MID MORNING DUE TO THE CLEARING...MOIST LOW
LEVELS AND CONTINUED UPSLOPE WINDS.
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE DAY AND THERE IS A LOT DRIER AIR FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH MID
LEVELS THAT WILL BE PULLED INTO THE AREA. SO AS THE LAST FEW DAYS
HAS SHOWN...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA SHOULD BE THE WARMEST
SINCE IT CLEAR THE FIRST AND MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
GOING MAXES.
MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS...LIGHTER WINDS...AND LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR TONIGHT. CURRENT GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE WARMER
THAN YESTERDAYS. MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST HALF WILL HAVE WET GROUND AND
THAT MAYBE COULD MODERATE THE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN PLACE AND WENT WITH THE
COOLEST GUIDANCE.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF NORTHERN JET IS
APPROACHING DURING THE DAY AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA WILL BE AFFECTED OR BE CLOSE TO BE AFFECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS JET MOVES ACROSS DURING THE NIGHT. NEW MODEL OUTPUT
KEEPS ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL NORTH OF OUR AREA. THERE IS SOME
COLD AIR ALOFT WITH A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
MOVING THROUGH AT THE SAME TIME AS THE JET LIFT.
THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING IN. GOOD
LAPSE RATES ARE IN PLACE AS WELL. SAME PROBLEM AS THE DAY SHIFT
POINTED OUT YESTERDAY...LACK OF MOISTURE/DEEP DRY LAYER...ARE
STILL IN PLACE. THERE IS ENOUGH THERE THAT CONTINUING THE
SPRINKLES THE DAY SHIFT PUT IN LOOKS REASONABLE.
AS STATED ABOVE THERE LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE ANOTHER PRESSURE OR
COLD SURGE THAT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUING. CURRENTLY THERE IS A FRONT TO THE NORTH WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING SO THIS DEFINITELY SEEMS REASONABLE. PLUS
CLOUD COVER MAY INCREASE IN THE FAR NORTH DURING THE DAY. SO
TEMPERED THE WARMUP AND TENDED TO GO TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
GUIDANCE.
ANOTHER WEAK WIND FIELD IS IN PLACE DURING THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...IT
DOES LOOK LIKE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE/DRAINAGE WINDS DO DEVELOP IN THE
LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT. STILL THE SETUP IN PLACE WOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE AND TRENDED IN THAT
DIRECTION.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH DOES IT WARM
UP AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/PLENTY OF SUN MOVE INTO THE AREA.
DESPITE THIS...STILL RATHER SHARP NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE.
SINCE THERE IS ALSO A LACK OF CROSS MOUNTAIN COMPONENT ON THE MID
LEVEL WINDS...DO NOT EXPECT A STRONG LEE TROUGH TO DEVELOP. IN
FACT...WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT THE SURFACE WIND FIELD IS
ACTUALLY RESPONDING LIKE ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY IS MOVING THROUGH
WITH AN UNFAVORABLE SURFACE WIND FIELD IN PLACE. SO BACKED OFF A
LITTLE ON THE WARMING WITH THE NWP LOOKING A LITTLE WARM IN THIS
PATTERN. WENT CLOSER TO THE 2 METER AND BIAS ADJUSTMENT ON THE 850
MB TEMPERATURE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015
THE 500MB RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD AND FLATTEN
THUS LEADING TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND NEARLY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS GOING INTO FRIDAY. STRONG 500MB FLOW ACROSS THE
ROCKIES ON SATURDAY LEADS TO THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH FAVORING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE TROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH THE GFS BEING QUITE A
BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH AS IT PROGRESSES
EASTWARD.
I WENT WITH MORE OF A GFS SOLUTION IN THE 4 TO 7 DAY BASED ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROUGH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
TO THE WEST OF THE CWA AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THIS TROUGH. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 521 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015
FOR KGLD...THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. AFTER THAT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. FROM 16Z TO 23Z THERE WILL BE GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 22 KNOTS.
FOR KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. FROM
18Z TO 23Z...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 17 KNOTS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...TML
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
524 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE HOW FAST PRECIPITATION ENDS AND CLEARING
BEGINS TODAY AND ITS AFFECTS ON THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...LOW
TEMPERATURES THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
TUESDAY...AND HOW MUCH THE WARMUP WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SATELLITE SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WITH AMPLIFIED FLOW
EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
AT JET LEVEL...ALL THE MODELS WERE CLOSE ON THE JET WITH THE NAM AND
THE ECMWF DOING A LITTLE BETTER. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS NOT TOO BAD
AT MID LEVELS WITH THE GFS...CANADIAN AND UKMET DOING THE BEST. THE
NAM WAS DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE
GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE CANADIAN AND NAM ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...RAINFALL HAS ALREADY ENDED OVER THE NORTHEAST TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA AS THE LAST BAND OF RAINFALL CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTH AND WEST. THIS IS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. MOST MODEL OUTPUT NO
MATTER HOW WELL IT IS CURRENTLY DOING ON THE POSITION OF THE
RAINFALL...ENDS THE RAINFALL BY 18Z. THE HRRR IS DOING THE BEST ON
ITS POSITION AT THIS TIME. BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND
HRRR...WILL LOWER THE POPS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY AND HAVE
THEM END BY LATE IN THE MORNING. WILL END UP HAVING SOME KIND OF
FOG MENTION THROUGH MID MORNING DUE TO THE CLEARING...MOIST LOW
LEVELS AND CONTINUED UPSLOPE WINDS.
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE DAY AND THERE IS A LOT DRIER AIR FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH MID
LEVELS THAT WILL BE PULLED INTO THE AREA. SO AS THE LAST FEW DAYS
HAS SHOWN...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA SHOULD BE THE WARMEST
SINCE IT CLEAR THE FIRST AND MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
GOING MAXES.
MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS...LIGHTER WINDS...AND LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR TONIGHT. CURRENT GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE WARMER
THAN YESTERDAYS. MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST HALF WILL HAVE WET GROUND AND
THAT MAYBE COULD MODERATE THE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN PLACE AND WENT WITH THE
COOLEST GUIDANCE.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF NORTHERN JET IS
APPROACHING DURING THE DAY AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA WILL BE AFFECTED OR BE CLOSE TO BE AFFECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS JET MOVES ACROSS DURING THE NIGHT. NEW MODEL OUTPUT
KEEPS ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL NORTH OF OUR AREA. THERE IS SOME
COLD AIR ALOFT WITH A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
MOVING THROUGH AT THE SAME TIME AS THE JET LIFT.
THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING IN. GOOD
LAPSE RATES ARE IN PLACE AS WELL. SAME PROBLEM AS THE DAY SHIFT
POINTED OUT YESTERDAY...LACK OF MOISTURE/DEEP DRY LAYER...ARE
STILL IN PLACE. THERE IS ENOUGH THERE THAT CONTINUING THE
SPRINKLES THE DAY SHIFT PUT IN LOOKS REASONABLE.
AS STATED ABOVE THERE LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE ANOTHER PRESSURE OR
COLD SURGE THAT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUING. CURRENTLY THERE IS A FRONT TO THE NORTH WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING SO THIS DEFINITELY SEEMS REASONABLE. PLUS
CLOUD COVER MAY INCREASE IN THE FAR NORTH DURING THE DAY. SO
TEMPERED THE WARMUP AND TENDED TO GO TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
GUIDANCE.
ANOTHER WEAK WIND FIELD IS IN PLACE DURING THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...IT
DOES LOOK LIKE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE/DRAINAGE WINDS DO DEVELOP IN THE
LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT. STILL THE SETUP IN PLACE WOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE AND TRENDED IN THAT
DIRECTION.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH DOES IT WARM
UP AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/PLENTY OF SUN MOVE INTO THE AREA.
DESPITE THIS...STILL RATHER SHARP NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE.
SINCE THERE IS ALSO A LACK OF CROSS MOUNTAIN COMPONENT ON THE MID
LEVEL WINDS...DO NOT EXPECT A STRONG LEE TROUGH TO DEVELOP. IN
FACT...WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT THE SURFACE WIND FIELD IS
ACTUALLY RESPONDING LIKE ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY IS MOVING THROUGH
WITH AN UNFAVORABLE SURFACE WIND FIELD IN PLACE. SO BACKED OFF A
LITTLE ON THE WARMING WITH THE NWP LOOKING A LITTLE WARM IN THIS
PATTERN. WENT CLOSER TO THE 2 METER AND BIAS ADJUSTMENT ON THE 850
MB TEMPERATURE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015
THE 500MB RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD AND FLATTEN
THUS LEADING TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND NEARLY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS GOING INTO FRIDAY. STRONG 500MB FLOW ACROSS THE
ROCKIES ON SATURDAY LEADS TO THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH FAVORING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE TROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH THE GFS BEING QUITE A
BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH AS IT PROGRESSES
EASTWARD.
I WENT WITH MORE OF A GFS SOLUTION IN THE 4 TO 7 DAY BASED ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROUGH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
TO THE WEST OF THE CWA AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THIS TROUGH. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 521 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015
FOR KGLD...THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. AFTER THAT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. FROM 16Z TO 23Z THERE WILL BE GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 22 KNOTS.
FOR KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. FROM
18Z TO 23Z...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 17 KNOTS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...TML
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1008 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
.DISCUSSION...
THE LAST OF THE EARLY MORNING QLCS HAS FINALLY MOVED EWD...LEAVING
ONLY SOME SCT SHWRS/TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE REGION. HAVE CANCELLED
TORNADO WATCH 125 AS A RESULT. LOOKS AS IF WE WILL GET A BREAK
BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION MOVES IN FROM THE W LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE TAYLORED POPS AROUND THIS...WHICH MEANT LOWERING
POPS FOR OUR ERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS/DEW POINTS LOOK
REASONABLE...SO WILL LET THEM RIDE AS IS. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE
OUT SHORTLY. /12/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 810 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/
AVIATION...
FOR THE 27/12Z TAFS...A WEAKENING CONVECTIVE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST ACROSS REGION...LEAVING
BEHIND SEVERAL CATEGORIES OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT OUR TAF SITES.
THE CURRENT BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION IS ALONG THE TX/LA
BORDER. CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS AT KMLU/KELD...WILL DIMINISH TO
MVFR/IFR AS SHWRS/TSTMS MOVE IN OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL BEHIND THE CONVECTION...AS
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER ACROSS THE REGION. CONVECTION
SHOULD WANE SOMEWHAT AFTER EXITING KELD/KMLU LATER THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER... ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL TRIGGER NEW
CONVECTION LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH SHWRS AND TSTMS RETURNING
FOR MOST SITES NEAR 28/00Z AND LATER. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
E/NELY TODAY...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN/AROUND CONVECTION. /20/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 733 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE NORTHEAST TEXAS COUNTIES AND
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA PARISHES IN TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 125.
TORNADO WATCH NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR ANY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 126 CONTINUED IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT.
ALSO LOWERED THE RAIN CHANCES AND QPF AMOUNTS FOR THOSE AREAS THAT
LOOKED TO BE DECREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITIES OF
RAIN. /06/
DISCUSSION...
RAIN HAS DECREASED OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHEAST
TEXAS AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND INVERTED TROUGH.
LATER TODAY HRRR MODEL DATA SHOWS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO
PARTS OF EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WHICH MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. ALSO ACROSS REMAINING PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO OTHER SECTIONS OF ARKANSAS...AND NORTH LOUISIANA. /06/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 69 53 63 46 / 50 80 60 10
MLU 68 56 64 48 / 50 80 70 30
DEQ 65 49 60 42 / 50 80 60 10
TXK 66 51 61 46 / 50 80 60 10
ELD 66 51 59 44 / 50 80 70 30
TYR 71 54 64 47 / 80 80 40 10
GGG 71 53 63 48 / 50 80 40 10
LFK 73 59 68 50 / 50 80 40 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
810 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 27/12Z TAFS...A WEAKENING CONVECTIVE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST ACROSS REGION...LEAVING
BEHIND SEVERAL CATEGORIES OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT OUR TAF SITES.
THE CURRENT BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION IS ALONG THE TX/LA
BORDER. CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS AT KMLU/KELD...WILL DIMINISH TO
MVFR/IFR AS SHWRS/TSTMS MOVE IN OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL BEHIND THE CONVECTION...AS
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER ACROSS THE REGION. CONVECTION
SHOULD WANE SOMEWHAT AFTER EXITING KELD/KMLU LATER THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER... ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL TRIGGER NEW
CONVECTION LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH SHWRS AND TSTMS RETURNING
FOR MOST SITES NEAR 28/00Z AND LATER. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
E/NELY TODAY...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN/AROUND CONVECTION. /20/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 733 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE NORTHEAST TEXAS COUNTIES AND
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA PARISHES IN TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 125.
TORNADO WATCH NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR ANY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 126 CONTINUED IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT.
ALSO LOWERED THE RAIN CHANCES AND QPF AMOUNTS FOR THOSE AREAS THAT
LOOKED TO BE DECREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITIES OF
RAIN. /06/
DISCUSSION...
RAIN HAS DECREASED OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHEAST
TEXAS AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND INVERTED TROUGH.
LATER TODAY HRRR MODEL DATA SHOWS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO
PARTS OF EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WHICH MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. ALSO ACROSS REMAINING PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO OTHER SECTIONS OF ARKANSAS...AND NORTH LOUISIANA. /06/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 69 53 63 46 / 80 80 60 10
MLU 68 56 64 48 / 70 80 70 30
DEQ 65 49 60 42 / 80 80 60 10
TXK 66 51 61 46 / 80 80 60 10
ELD 66 51 59 44 / 70 80 70 30
TYR 71 54 64 47 / 80 80 40 10
GGG 71 53 63 48 / 80 80 40 10
LFK 73 59 68 50 / 80 80 40 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
20
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
733 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE NORTHEAST TEXAS COUNTIES AND
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA PARISHES IN TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 125.
TORNADO WATCH NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR ANY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 126 CONTINUED IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT.
ALSO LOWERED THE RAIN CHANCES AND QPF AMOUNTS FOR THOSE AREAS THAT
LOOKED TO BE DECREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITIES OF
RAIN. /06/
&&
.DISCUSSION...
RAIN HAS DECREASED OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHEAST
TEXAS AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND INVERTED TROUGH.
LATER TODAY HRRR MODEL DATA SHOWS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO
PARTS OF EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WHICH MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. ALSO ACROSS REMAINING PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO OTHER SECTIONS OF ARKANSAS...AND NORTH LOUISIANA. /06/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE 8 COUNTIES AND PARISHES FROM
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 125 ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA...AND TO INCLUDE 4 PARISHES IN A NEW TORNQADO WATCH
NUMBER 126 ACROSS LOWER PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. /06/
DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO
MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF SAN AUGUSTINE AND SABINE COUNTIES IN EAST
TEXAS AND LOWER PARTS OF TOLEDO BEND AND PARTS OF SABINE PARISH IN
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF TORNADO WATCH 125 AND INTO TORNADO WATCH 126 DURING THE
REST OF THE MORNING. /06/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/
DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS SOUTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH
METROPLEX AND REACHED INTO EAST TEXAS NEAR TYLER AND SOUTH OF
LONGVIEW AND ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REACHED TO
THE NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW/S CENTER INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHERN KANSAS. AN OCCULDED FRONT REACHED TO THE NORTHWEST FROM
THE TEXAS LOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TO ANOTHER SMALL SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA...AND A DRY LINE EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO ACROSS WEST TEXAS INTO ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS
NEAR BROWNSVILLE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND PROVIDING COLDER AIR INTO THE FOUR STATE
REGION. ALOFT A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WERE EJECTING AROUND THE
BASE OF A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN PAN HANDLE
AREA OF TEXAS AND MOVING ACROSS THE SURFACE SYSTEMS PROVIDING LIFT
AND MOISTURE ALOFT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
OF WHICH WERE STRONG TO SEVERE...PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LARGE HAIL AND STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS. WITH SUCH A COMPLEX
SYSTEM...MOVMENT OF THE STORMS WERE SLOW AND WILL RESULT IN VERY
HEAVY RAIN SINCE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE FROM NEAR ONE INCH
TO NEAR ONE AND THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS EAST TEXAS INTO
WESTERN LOUISIANA. THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK THE
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS NEAR THE
RED RIVER AND INTO ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA...NUDGING THE
SURFACE LOW/S SOUTH WITH THE COLD FRONT REACHING TO THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AN OCCULUDED FRONT INTO LOWER PARTS OF
THE PAN HANDLE AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE SOUTHWEST
INTO WEST TEXAS AND MEXICO. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A WET
PERIOD FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THE
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SHIFTINTG INTO NORTHWEST
MISSSISSIPPI...WESTERN TENNESSEE WITH ITS TRAILING TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE SHOWERS OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH THE RAIN ENDING BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMAINTE THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE EATERN STATES BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRUSH JUST
EAST OF OUR REGION AFFECTING THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS AND
THEN INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 69 53 63 46 / 80 80 60 10
MLU 68 56 64 48 / 70 80 70 30
DEQ 65 49 60 42 / 80 80 60 10
TXK 66 51 61 46 / 80 80 60 10
ELD 66 51 59 44 / 70 80 70 30
TYR 71 54 64 47 / 80 80 40 10
GGG 71 53 63 48 / 80 80 40 10
LFK 73 59 68 50 / 80 80 40 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
06
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
722 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO SRN JAMES BAY. TO THE SE...A MID
LEVEL LOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EXTENDS BROAD
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION BACK TO THE UPPER LAKES. SHORTWAVE THAT WAS N
OF MAINE 24HRS AGO HAS TRACKED W AND SW AND IS NOW OVER NE LWR
MI/LAKE HURON. WHILE THIS WAVE HAS HELPED PUSH CLOUDS W INTO UPPER
MI...CLOUDS HAVE NOT SPREAD AS FAR W AS EXPECTED...AND CLOUD HEIGHTS
ARE QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN MODELS INDICATED. AS OF 08Z...W EDGE OF
THE STRATOCU DECK RUNS FROM NE LAKE SUPERIOR TO ROUGHLY MUNISING-
ESCANABA. CLOUDS BRIEFLY EXTENDED W INTO MARQUETTE COUNTY EARLIER
IN THE NIGHT.
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS TODAY.
LOOKING N...W EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK EXTENDS A LITTLE FARTHER W IN
NRN ONTARIO THAN OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THIS MAY BE KEY TO
SPREADING CLOUDS INTO MORE OF UPPER MI TODAY UNDER NNE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. ON THE OTHER HAND...DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE DAY WILL LEAD TO INCREASED DIVERGENCE OVER
THE LAKE WHICH WILL WORK TO BREAK UP THE LOWER CLOUDS THAT DROP SSW
OVER THE LAKE. THE COMPETING SIGNALS MAKE THE CLOUD FCST IN CNTRL
UPPER MI QUITE UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW...FCST REFLECTS SOME WESTWARD
EXPANSION OF CLOUDS IN CNTRL UPPER MI THIS MORNING FROM WHAT IS
CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAX TEMPS SHOULD
BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BUT PROBABLY A LITTLE COOLER AT SOME
LOCATIONS OVER THE E DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER
THE AREA. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR W TO PARTLY CLOUDY EAST...PERHAPS
MOSTLY CLOUDY FAR EAST. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO WHAT
IS BEING OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER
WILL OBVIOUSLY PLAY A ROLE IN MIN TEMPS OVER THE E TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015
MODELS STILL SHOWING POOR AGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY
WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY POSSIBLY SHIFTING THROUGH OR NEAR THE REGION
TUE INTO THU. THE 00Z/29 IS SHOWING THE MOST PRECIP AS A RESULT OF
SHOWING STRONGER ENERGY MORE DIRECTLY IMPACT THE CWA. HOWEVER...THE
GFS STILL ONLY SHOWS LESS THAN 0.05 INCHES OF RAIN TUE
EVENING...0.01-0.02 INCHES WED AFTERNOON...AND UP TO 0.15 INCHES
OVER THE FAR E LATE WED. LITTLE TO NO QPF SEEN FROM OTHER
MODELS...SO THE GFS IS MORE OF AN OUTLIER. THAT COMBINED WITH THE
FACT THAT THE LACK OF PRECIP HAS BEEN PERSISTENT LATELY...WILL NOT
INCLUDE PRECIP IN THE FORECAST. OF COURSE...THE STRENGTH AND TRACK
OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPS DUE TO BOTH
AIRMASS TEMPS AND A PRECIP/CLOUD COVER. TUE WILL BE WARMER THAN WED
AND THU AS MODELS DO AT LEAST AGREE THAT THE AIRMASS WILL BE COOLER
ON WED AND THU...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECIP/EXACT TEMPS FRI THROUGH SUN AS
WELL WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON FRI BEING BROKEN DOWN BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY/TROUGHING MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA. THE 12Z/26 ECMWF SHOWS
LESS THAN 0.05 INCHES OF QPF ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT ON FRI INTO FRI
NIGHT...BUT OTHER MODELS DO NOT SUPPORT THIS IDEA. GENERAL IDEA IS
THAT SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETAKE CONTROL ON SAT...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. PRECIP CHANCES ARE HIGHER ON SUN AS THE ECMWF
BRINGS A WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW. THE
AIRMASS DEFINITELY BECOMES WARMER INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT HOW MUCH
AND WHEN THE WARMEST CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED IS CLOUDED BY MODEL
DISAGREEMENT/VARIABILITY. COULD SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S OVER THE
W HALF ON ONE OR TWO DAYS FRI THROUGH SUN...PROBABLY OCCURING ON SAT
IF IT DOES END UP BEING DRY/SUNNY AS CURRENTLY SHOWN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015
THE WRN EDGE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS IS EDGING W ACROSS ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND WILL PROBABLY AFFECT KSAW FOR A TIME TODAY. SINCE
SATELLITE TRENDS ALONG WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST BACKING
OFF ON THE POTENTIAL OF LOW CLOUDS AT KSAW...THIS FCST WILL CONTINUE
THE MORE OPTIMISTIC TREND CARRIED IN RECENT FCSTS OVERNIGHT. OCNL
HIGHER END MVFR CIGS SHOULD OCCUR AT KSAW INTO THE EARLY AFTN.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.
FARTHER W INTO DRIER AIR...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015
WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING S THRU WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY...WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTEST OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...MOSTLY UNDER 10KT. OVER
THE E...WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO NEAR 20KT. AS THE RIDGE
DRIFTS E A BIT TONIGHT...WINDS WILL FALL OFF TO MOSTLY UNDER 10KT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE. ON TUE...WINDS WILL BE UNDER 15KT AS THE
RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A WEAK LOW PRES TROF THAT PASSES TUE NIGHT. IN
ITS WAKE...ANOTHER HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE S FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WED/THU. AS THE HIGH BEGINS RIDGING S INTO THE
UPPER LAKES WED...WINDS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY GUST TO
NEAR 20KT ONCE AGAIN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER THE W. WITH WEAK
PRES GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER LAKES THU/FRI...WIND SHOULD BE MOSTLY
UNDER 15KT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
700 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015
.AVIATION...
MOST OF THE EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWERS WILL HAVE DIMINISHED AND/OR
PUSHED SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS BY 12Z. A LARGE REGION OF MVFR STRATUS
HAS MOVED INTO SE MI ALONG AND IN THE WAKE OF THESE SHOWERS. DAYTIME
HEATING WILL DEEPEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH IN TURN WILL LIFT CLOUD
BASES TO THE 3500 TO 4500 FT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR DTW...A PUSH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD STILL RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF MVFR CLOUDS THIS MORNING BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING LIFTS THE
BASES THIS AFTERNOON.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 322 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
EARLY MORNING US/CANADIAN RADAR COMPOSITE LOOP HAS BEEN SHOWING A
REGION OF SHOWERS ADVANCING ACROSS LAKE HURON AND THE THUMB. THESE
SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A COMPACT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOW
DROPPING INTO LAKE HURON FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE MAIN RIBBON OF
LARGE SCALE ASCENT VIA GOOD DCVA WILL PRECEDE THE WAVE...WHICH IS
FORECAST TO ROTATE ACROSS SE MI DURING THE COURSE OF THE MORNING.
THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL COLD POOL AND RESULTANT STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE THUMB AND POINTS EAST THIS
MORNING. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE POOL OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.
THUS THE GREATER COVERAGE OF EARLY MORNING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE THUMB INTO THE NORTHEASTERN DETROIT SUBURBS...WITH
COVERAGE DECREASING TO THE WEST. ANY HIGHER INTENSITY RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING WILL BE VERY BRIEF...SO OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO ONLY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS.
A MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE BUBBLE WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS SE MI THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORT WAVE. THE CORRESPONDING MID
LEVEL WARMING WILL REDUCE THE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTHS
SUBSTANTIALLY AND SUPPORTS THE CURRENT DRY FORECAST. SE MI WILL
REMAIN ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A BROAD REGION OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW EXTENDING ALL THE WAY TO NEW ENGLAND. UPSTREAM SATELLITE AND
SFC OBSERVATIONS TO THE NORTHEAST OF LAKE HURON SUGGEST AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY...WHICH WILL EVOLVE INTO A
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE STRATO CU FIELD UNDER THE MID LEVEL INVERSION THIS
AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...NAM AND RAP SOUNDINGS
STILL SUGGEST STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RISING MIXING
DEPTHS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S.
NORTHERLY WINDS OFF LAKE HURON WILL AGAIN KEEP THE SHORELINE LOCALS
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER.
LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL EASE ITS GRIP ON SE MI TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES INTO LOWER MI FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE /ALBEIT MUCH WEAKER/ WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS ERN
LOWER MI TONIGHT WITHIN THE PERSISTENT MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW.
THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY JUST LEAD TO SOME PERIODIC MID CLOUDS.
MODEL RH PROGS DO HOWEVER SUGGEST THE EROSION OF THE DIURNALLY
ENHANCED CU FIELD WILL TAKE WELL INTO THE NIGHT...LIKELY A RESULT
OF THE PERSISTENT INVERSION. THESE FACTORS WILL SUPPORT LEANING ON
THE HIGH END OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS /RANGING FROM THE MID
30S IN THE THUMB TO LOW 40S IN METRO DETROIT/.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
A MORE COMFORTABLE STRETCH OF SPRING WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH PREDOMINATELY DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING
TEMEPRATURES.
PERSISTENT STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD LET UP BRIEFLY AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD TUESDAY WITH TWO GOOD SURGES OF SUBSIDENCE AND A FAIRLY RAPID
LOSS IN DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS LOSS IN LOW CLOUD SHOULD ONLY BE
TEMPRORARY AS A GOOD SIGNAL EXISTS THAT LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE
WILL THEN BLOSSOM INTO A FAIRLY ROBUST DIURNAL CU RESPONSE. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE
60...ALTHOUGH AREAS HUGGING THE LAKESHORE WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER.
MUDDY MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND LACK OF FLOW IN THE COLUMN WILL
LEAD TO PERSISTENCE FOR WEDNESDAY. THE LOW LEVELS ARE FORECASTED TO
BE MARGINALLY DRIER WHILE THERE IS SOME SIGNAL FOR SOME MIDLEVEL
MOISTURE TO POOL OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE.
STILL EXPECTING SOME MIDCLOUD...BUT BETTER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 60S ON WEDNESDAY.
MODEL DATA IS AGGRESIVE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY/VORTICITY MAXIMUM
DROPPING STRAIGHT SOUTHWARD INTO THE LAKE MICHIGAN VICINITY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE BOOK HASNT BEEN WRITTEN YET ON
SPECIFICS WITH MODELS TRENDING WESTERLY WITH THE QPF AXIS.
REGARDLESS...FAIRLY ROBUST SHORTWAVE AND INBOUND TRAJECTORY OF AIR
PARCELS SUPPORT AN INCREASINGLY GOOD POTENTIAL FOR A COOL DOWN AND
RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. BUMPED POPS UPWARD FROM
THE OFFERED GRIDDED GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY COULD STRUGGLE
TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA.
MARINE...
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME TODAY AS THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH
AXIS SWINGS SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE STATE. A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE STATE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. THIS
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO YIELD A RUN OF WEAK WINDS OVER
THE MARINE AREAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A NEXT SURGE IN NORTHERLY
WINDS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK
SURFACE LOW OR TROUGH AXIS.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ421-
441>443.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....SC
SHORT TERM...SC
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
853 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY WILL LINGER
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST...THEN TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE
CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 900 AM MONDAY...
UPDATED THE FORECAST AT 9 AM TO REMOVE MENTION OF MORNING FOG...
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. GIVEN THAT THE PRIOR
DISCUSSION SUMS UP FORECAST REASONING QUITE WELL...NO ADDITIONAL
UPDATE TO THE NEAR TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE NECESSARY UNTIL 12Z MODEL
GUIDANCE IS AVAILABLE FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. -VINCENT
TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN RECENT DAYS...BUT STILL BELOW AVG OWING TO
THE INFLUENCE OF BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AROUND A DEEP...MEAN TROUGH
CENTERED NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. A COUPLE OF NOTABLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ROTATING AROUND THE WSW QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LOW WILL PIVOT ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. THE FIRST...INITIALLY OVER CENTRAL
IN...WILL TRACK ESE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND NORTHERN NC...TO
NEAR THE NC OUTER BANKS BY 18Z. THE TRAILING ONE...INITIALLY OVER
LAKE MI...WILL TAKE A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERLY TRACK ACROSS THE
VIRGINIAS TONIGHT. WHILE MOISTURE WITH BOTH WILL BE LIMITED...
MARGINALLY COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIURNAL
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A BRIEF UPTICK OF
SHALLOW CU BASED AROUND 7-8 THOUSAND FT OVER THE NE PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT CU
WILL DEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY TO GENERATE A FEW MEASURABLE SHOWERS WITH
THE LEAD VORT MAX ACROSS THOSE SAME AREAS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...A DEEP AND DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER -ONE INCREASINGLY SO WITH
TIME WITH DIURNAL HEATING- SHOULD CAUSE ANY ASSOCIATED SPRINKLE TO
EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE SFC...IF ANY EVEN DEVELOP AMIDST LIGHT
NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE NW...AND
OTHERWISE DEEP DRYNESS. HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES AND RESULT IN LIGHT NW STIRRING OR BRIEF PERIODS OF
CALM...WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 40S. SOME UPPER 30S WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF/WHERE WINDS GO CALM FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME...HOWEVER...
GIVEN PROJECTED LL THICKNESS VALUES NEAR 1325 M AND JUST PASSING
THIN CIRRUS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 AM MONDAY...
AN UPPER LOW INITIALLY OVER NM WILL MIGRATE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY...WHILE S/W RIDGING ALOFT BRIEFLY EXPANDS
ACROSS THE SE STATES IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW. DRY SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONSEQUENTLY BUILD ACROSS AND LINGER OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH EARLY TUE NIGHT...THEN YIELD TO TOP-DOWN MOISTENING
AHEAD OF SFC LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND GRADUALLY DEEPEN
FROM THE WESTERN GOM AND ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED CIRRUS ON TUE WILL PROGRESSIVELY THICKEN AND LOWER
OVERNIGHT AND CULMINATE IN A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PIEDMONT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK WED. HIGHS GENERALLY 65 TO 70
DEGREES. LOW TEMPS...INITIALLY DRIVEN BY RADIATIONAL COOLING BEFORE
CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER AND CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO STEADY OR RISE
SLIGHTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...ONLY TO EVAPORATIONALLY COOL WHERE RAIN
OCCURS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK...IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...
AN UNSETTLED START TO THE LONG TERM AS WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A
CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW HELPING TO DEVELOP AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST
AFFECTING CENTRAL NC FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY
INTO FRIDAY. A SOMEWHAT NON-TRADITIONAL IN-SITU CAD SCENARIO WILL
SET UP AS OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION FALLS INTO A DRIER AIRMASS BELOW
WHICH WILL COOL THE LOW LEVELS SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS WILL DETER ANY
SEVERE THREAT DESPITE PLENTY OF FORCING ON MULTIPLE LEVELS. WHILE
DETAILS ON THE TIMING ARE STILL COMING INTO AGREEMENT...THE GENERAL
SCENARIO WILL HAVE RAIN MOVING INTO THE SW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES UP THE CAROLINA COAST. BOTH
MODELS ARE PRODUCING 2 DAY QPF TOTALS OF CLOSE TO AN INCH SO SOME
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. DETAILS START TO
BLUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS BOTH MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW DIVING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA BUT THE GFS PRODUCES A MUCH
STRONGER CUTOFF LOW THAN THE ECMWF BUT THE UPSHOT WILL GENERALLY BE
THE SAME WHICH IS SOME LINGERING LIGHTER PRECIPITATION INTO
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT AND RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST...HELPING TO DRY THINGS OUT FOR THE WEEKEND. THE PROGRESSION OF
THE SURFACE HIGH IS YET TO BE DETERMINED BUT SUFFICE TO SAY THAT
THERE WILL BE A DRYING AND WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THEREFORE TEMPERATURES START OUT MIDWEEK IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
FOR HIGHS UNDER THE CAD AIRMASS BUT WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND WILL FEEL MORE LIKE MAY AND LESS LIKE
MARCH.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 900 AM MONDAY...
WINDS WILL BECOME NW AND INCREASE TO 8-14 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KTS BETWEEN 20-23Z. SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR ASIDE FROM SCT CEILINGS AOA 7 KFT...WITH RELATIVE GREATEST
COVERAGE FROM KRWI AND POINTS NORTHEASTWARD WHERE BKN MID-LEVEL
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS NE NC AND SE VA.
OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN
A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN WED-THU...WITH THE
RELATIVE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AND LOWEST AND LONGEST
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS...AT EASTERN TAF SITES. -VINCENT/RAH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT/RAH
NEAR TERM...VINCENT/RAH
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...VINCENT/RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
652 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND
LINGER OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST...THEN TRACK UP
THE SOUTHEAST AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WED THROUGH THU.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM MONDAY...
TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN RECENT DAYS...BUT STILL BELOW AVG OWING TO
THE INFLUENCE OF BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AROUND A DEEP...MEAN TROUGH
CENTERED NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. A COUPLE OF NOTABLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ROTATING AROUND THE WSW QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LOW WILL PIVOT ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. THE FIRST...INITIALLY OVER CENTRAL
IN...WILL TRACK ESE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND NORTHERN NC...TO
NEAR THE NC OUTER BANKS BY 18Z. THE TRAILING ONE...INITIALLY OVER
LAKE MI...WILL TAKE A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERLY TRACK ACROSS THE
VIRGINIAS TONIGHT. WHILE MOISTURE WITH BOTH WILL BE LIMITED...
MARGINALLY COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIURNAL
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A BRIEF UPTICK OF
SHALLOW CU BASED AROUND 7-8 THOUSAND FT OVER THE NE PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT CU
WILL DEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY TO GENERATE A FEW MEASURABLE SHOWERS WITH
THE LEAD VORT MAX ACROSS THOSE SAME AREAS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...A DEEP AND DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER -ONE INCREASINGLY SO WITH
TIME WITH DIURNAL HEATING- SHOULD CAUSE ANY ASSOCIATED SPRINKLE TO
EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE SFC...IF ANY EVEN DEVELOP AMIDST LIGHT
NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE NW...AND
OTHERWISE DEEP DRYNESS. HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES AND RESULT IN LIGHT NW STIRRING OR BRIEF PERIODS OF
CALM...WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 40S. SOME UPPER 30S WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF/WHERE WINDS GO CALM FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME...HOWEVER...
GIVEN PROJECTED LL THICKNESS VALUES NEAR 1325 M AND JUST PASSING
THIN CIRRUS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 AM MONDAY...
AN UPPER LOW INITIALLY OVER NM WILL MIGRATE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY...WHILE S/W RIDGING ALOFT BRIEFLY EXPANDS
ACROSS THE SE STATES IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW. DRY SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONSEQUENTLY BUILD ACROSS AND LINGER OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH EARLY TUE NIGHT...THEN YIELD TO TOP-DOWN MOISTENING
AHEAD OF SFC LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND GRADUALLY DEEPEN
FROM THE WESTERN GOM AND ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED CIRRUS ON TUE WILL PROGRESSIVELY THICKEN AND LOWER
OVERNIGHT AND CULMINATE IN A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PIEDMONT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK WED. HIGHS GENERALLY 65 TO 70
DEGREES. LOW TEMPS...INITIALLY DRIVEN BY RADIATIONAL COOLING BEFORE
CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER AND CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO STEADY OR RISE
SLIGHTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...ONLY TO EVAPORATIONALLY COOL WHERE RAIN
OCCURS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK...IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...
AN UNSETTLED START TO THE LONG TERM AS WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A
CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW HELPING TO DEVELOP AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST
AFFECTING CENTRAL NC FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY
INTO FRIDAY. A SOMEWHAT NON-TRADITIONAL IN-SITU CAD SCENARIO WILL
SET UP AS OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION FALLS INTO A DRIER AIRMASS BELOW
WHICH WILL COOL THE LOW LEVELS SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS WILL DETER ANY
SEVERE THREAT DESPITE PLENTY OF FORCING ON MULTIPLE LEVELS. WHILE
DETAILS ON THE TIMING ARE STILL COMING INTO AGREEMENT...THE GENERAL
SCENARIO WILL HAVE RAIN MOVING INTO THE SW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES UP THE CAROLINA COAST. BOTH
MODELS ARE PRODUCING 2 DAY QPF TOTALS OF CLOSE TO AN INCH SO SOME
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. DETAILS START TO
BLUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS BOTH MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW DIVING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA BUT THE GFS PRODUCES A MUCH
STRONGER CUTOFF LOW THAN THE ECMWF BUT THE UPSHOT WILL GENERALLY BE
THE SAME WHICH IS SOME LINGERING LIGHTER PRECIPITATION INTO
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT AND RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST...HELPING TO DRY THINGS OUT FOR THE WEEKEND. THE PROGRESSION OF
THE SURFACE HIGH IS YET TO BE DETERMINED BUT SUFFICE TO SAY THAT
THERE WILL BE A DRYING AND WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THEREFORE TEMPERATURES START OUT MIDWEEK IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
FOR HIGHS UNDER THE CAD AIRMASS BUT WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND WILL FEEL MORE LIKE MAY AND LESS LIKE
MARCH.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM MONDAY...
PATCHY SUB-VFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS...AND ASSOCIATED VLIFR
CEILINGS/VERTICAL VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL QUICKLY DISPERSE
THROUGH 13Z. OTHERWISE...CALM TO LIGHT W TO WNW WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL BECOME NW AND INCREASE INTO THE 8-14 KT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTINESS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS IN THE
SEVERAL HOURS PRIOR TO SUNSET. SKIES WILL BE RELATIVELY CLEAR
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ASIDE FROM MAINLY FEW-SCT SHALLOW CUMULIFORM
CLOUDS AROUND 7-8 THOUSAND FT...WITH RELATIVE GREATEST COVERAGE FROM
KRWI AND POINTS NORTHEASTWARD...WHERE A BRIEF BKN CEILING AT THAT
HEIGHT WILL BE POSSIBLE MID-LATE AFTERNOON OWING TO THE APPROACH OF
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED RELATIVE STRONGEST LIFT
AND MOISTURE OVER NE NC AND SE VA.
OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN
A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN WED-THU...WITH THE
RELATIVE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AND LOWEST AND LONGEST
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS...AT EASTERN TAF SITES.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1114 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LATE THIS WEEK A
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL BRING A RETURN OF COOL AND SHOWERY
CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SPRAWLING UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL PUSH A
DISTINCT EAST-WEST TROUGH SOUTH ACROSS PA TODAY.
COLD AIR ALOFT WITH MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
HELP TO SPARK SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS AND CONTINUING TO
GROW INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DROPPING OFF RAPIDLY AFTER
ABOUT 22-23Z.
HEIGHTS WILL RISE A BIT...BY JUST 10-20 DECAMETERS...LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT. COMBINE THIS WITHE DECREASING MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...AND FORMATION OF A NEAR ISOTHERMAL LAYER BETWEEN 650 AND
600 MB...AND WE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CLOUDS...AND
SHOWERS IN MOST LOCATIONS.
MAX TEMPS WILL AVERAGE SOME 10-15 DEG BELOW NORMAL TODAY. DESPITE
THE RECENT SPELL OF CHILLY WEATHER...AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE MONTH
ARE STILL RUNNING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL AT MANY LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BECOME CONFINED TO THE NRN AND
WESTERN MTNS OF THE STATE TONIGHT...AS A 2-4 KFT THICK ISOTHERMAL
LAYER IN THE MID LEVELS CAPS OF THE CLOUD DEPTH ELSEWHERE. WHILE A
FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS...THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY AND SCENT MTNS OF PENN WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT WITH A NORTH TO NWRLY BREEZE OF 6-8 KTS.
LOWS EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN
MTNS...AND L40S IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
TUESDAY WILL FEATURE MORE SHALLOW...AND LESS COVERAGE OF THE
STRATO CU CLOUDS THAN MONDAY. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
TUESDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW MTNS.
HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME IN LATE APRIL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS/APPROACH OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT WILL BRING A FEW DAYS OF DRY AND NOTICEABLY MILDER
CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WED.
A SLOW MOVING SRN STREAM UPPER LOW WILL EMERGE INTO THE SERN TO
MID ATLC STATES DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. A DISTINCT AND RATHER
POTENT SHOT OF UPPER ENERGY...IN THE FORM OF A CLOSED LOW
DROPPING SSE FROM THE UPPER GLAKES REGION SHOULD CAPTURE THE SFC
LOW /PROGGED BY MOST 00Z-06Z MODEL AND ENS GUIDANCE TO BE NEAR THE
OUTER BANKS OF NC THURSDAY MORNING/.
PHASING OF THESE FEATURES WILL COINCIDE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
HIGHLY ANOMALOUS EAST-NERLY FLOW IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER LATE
THUR INTO FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND ERN PENN.
PWATS IN EXCESS OF OVER 1 INCH NEAR THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ COAST
WILL BE TRANSPORTED NWWD UP/OVER THE SHALLOW COLD AIR ENTRENCHED
ACROSS CENTRAL PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY.
COORDINATED WITH SURROUNDING WFOS TO BOOST POPS /AND THE
NORTHEAST TO NORTHERLY WIND/ FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
WE EVEN SPECKLED IN SOME WET SNOW MIXING IN LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE LAURELS AOA 2400 FT MSL.
THE MUCH COOLER GFS/GEFS TEMPS APPEAR MORE REALISTIC AT THIS
POINT AS CLOUDS THICKEN.../AS RAIN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION
FORM THE SOUTH AND WEST/ AND FALLS THROUGH THE WEDGE OF RELATIVELY
DRIER/COOLER AIR NEAR THE SFC.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUD BASES ARE LOWERING OVER THE NORTH AS EXPECTED. BRADFORD HAS
COME DOWN TO 1100` OVERCAST CAUSING SOME CONCERN THEY COULD SEE
IFR CEILINGS DEVELOP BEFORE THE DAY IS OVER. OTHERWISE I AM
EXPECTING CEILINGS TO REMAIN IN THE 1000-2000` RANGE WITH PASSING
SHOWERS OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OR EVEN SOME WET SNOW.
ELSEWHERE CEILINGS SHOULD STAY MAINLY ABOVE 3000` BUT COULD BE
BRIEFLY MVFR IN DEVELOPING SCATTERED SHOWERS.
WINDS FROM 290-320 WILL GUST UP TO 20KTS AT TIMES THIS AFTN. LOOK
FOR SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING WITH LITTLE TO
NO CHANGE IN FCST CIGS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...MVFR CIGS WEST/LOW-END VFR CIGS CENTRAL AND EAST.
WED...NO SIG WX.
THU-FRI...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1100 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
.UPDATE...
SOME ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...AN NWS STORM SURVEY IS ENROUTE TO
THE GRIMES COUNTY AREA TO ASSESS DAMAGE. WE WILL UPDATE WITH
INFORMATION AS WE RECEIVE IT FROM THE ASSESSMENT.
PEAK WINDS MEASURED LAST NIGHT
CONROE ASOS 62 MPH AT 435 AM
8SE OF NAVASOTA 55 MPH AT 412 AM
HUNTSVILLE ASOS 54 MPH AT 452 AM
1N OF WALLER 50 MPH AT 422 AM
BRENHAM AWOS 49 MPH AT 335 AM
45
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/
UPDATE...
THE AREA HAS BEEN STABILIZED FOR THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE PARED
BACK THE RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING...BUT...THIS AFTERNOON IS A
VERY DIFFERENT STORY. A SQUALL LINE THAT RACED THROUGH THE REGION
KNOCKING DOWN TREES IS WELL INTO LA WITH SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CWA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY (WITH A SMALL CLUSTER OF
STORMS) IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS DOWN TO
63-67 OVER SETX. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM
THE NEARSHORE WATERS UP THROUGH MATAGORDA BAY TO GIDDINGS TO JUST
WEST OF FORT WORTH. WATER VAPOR/UA CLEARLY SHOWS A DRYING TREND
ALOFT WITH STRONG SW FLOW OF 50+ KNOTS AT 500MB AND 80+ KNOTS AT
300MB. AS WE HEAT UP AND THE UPPER LOW NEAR WICHITA FALLS
CONTINUES TO TREK EAST THIS SHOULD PLACE SETX IN A FAVORABLE
REGION FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT...LL
CONVERGENCE AND A RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE. SB CAPE
VALUES SOAR TO 3500-4500 J/KG OVER THE NORTH WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR ALOFT AND LOW LEVELS ONLY SOMEWHAT SHEARED
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED
TORNADOES...THOUGH PROBABLY A LOWER THREAT FOR TORNADOES BUT THAT
IS A LOT OF CAPE IF WE CAN REACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK. THE STORMS
SHOULD SWING EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ENDING THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER. SPC HAS KEPT THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK. HEAVY
RAIN THREAT POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. COLD
FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE HOUSTON AREA AFTER 2 AM WITH MODERATE
COLD ADVECTION. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY.
45
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 717 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/
AVIATION...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS LOW DUE TO THE VARIABILITY IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS. THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL AGREED WITH THE GLOBAL
MODELS IN MOVING THE CURRENT CONVECTION EAST OF THE AREA WHILE
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE UPPER LOW IN NM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
FOR THIS MORNING...DO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FROM KIAH NORTHWARD.
THE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FROM KHOU TO THE COAST SHOULD IMPROVE
BY THE MID MORNING PERIOD. WILL ADD THE MENTION OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE WAS FORECASTING LOW CEILINGS...RAW MODEL OUTPUT
SUGGESTED BEST CHANCES WILL BE MORE TOWARD THE COAST. AT LEAST
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM KHOU TO THE COAST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AT LEAST MOVE THROUGH KCLL
AND KUTS BY AROUND 08Z...AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH KCXO AND KIAH BY
12Z.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 81 60 67 49 72 / 50 40 20 10 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 83 63 70 49 74 / 50 40 20 10 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 69 73 56 71 / 50 20 10 10 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...45
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1040 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AREA HAS BEEN STABILIZED FOR THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE PARED
BACK THE RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING...BUT...THIS AFTERNOON IS A
VERY DIFFERENT STORY. A SQUALL LINE THAT RACED THROUGH THE REGION
KNOCKING DOWN TREES IS WELL INTO LA WITH SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CWA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY (WITH A SMALL CLUSTER OF
STORMS) IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS DOWN TO
63-67 OVER SETX. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM
THE NEARSHORE WATERS UP THROUGH MATAGORDA BAY TO GIDDINGS TO JUST
WEST OF FORT WORTH. WATER VAPOR/UA CLEARLY SHOWS A DRYING TREND
ALOFT WITH STRONG SW FLOW OF 50+ KNOTS AT 500MB AND 80+ KNOTS AT
300MB. AS WE HEAT UP AND THE UPPER LOW NEAR WICHITA FALLS
CONTINUES TO TREK EAST THIS SHOULD PLACE SETX IN A FAVORABLE
REGION FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT...LL
CONVERGENCE AND A RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE. SB CAPE
VALUES SOAR TO 3500-4500 J/KG OVER THE NORTH WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR ALOFT AND LOW LEVELS ONLY SOMEWHAT SHEARED
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED
TORNADOES...THOUGH PROBABLY A LOWER THREAT FOR TORNADOES BUT THAT
IS A LOT OF CAPE IF WE CAN REACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK. THE STORMS
SHOULD SWING EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ENDING THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER. SPC HAS KEPT THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK. HEAVY
RAIN THREAT POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. COLD
FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE HOUSTON AREA AFTER 2 AM WITH MODERATE
COLD ADVECTION. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY.
45
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 717 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/
AVIATION...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS LOW DUE TO THE VARIABILITY IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS. THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL AGREED WITH THE GLOBAL
MODELS IN MOVING THE CURRENT CONVECTION EAST OF THE AREA WHILE
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE UPPER LOW IN NM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
FOR THIS MORNING...DO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FROM KIAH NORTHWARD.
THE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FROM KHOU TO THE COAST SHOULD IMPROVE
BY THE MID MORNING PERIOD. WILL ADD THE MENTION OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE WAS FORECASTING LOW CEILINGS...RAW MODEL OUTPUT
SUGGESTED BEST CHANCES WILL BE MORE TOWARD THE COAST. AT LEAST
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM KHOU TO THE COAST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AT LEAST MOVE THROUGH KCLL
AND KUTS BY AROUND 08Z...AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH KCXO AND KIAH BY
12Z.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 81 60 67 49 72 / 50 40 20 10 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 83 63 70 49 74 / 50 40 20 10 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 69 73 56 71 / 50 20 10 10 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...45
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
717 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
40
&&
.AVIATION...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS LOW DUE TO THE VARIABILITY IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS. THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL AGREED WITH THE GLOBAL
MODELS IN MOVING THE CURRENT CONVECTION EAST OF THE AREA WHILE
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE UPPER LOW IN NM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
FOR THIS MORNING...DO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FROM KIAH NORTHWARD.
THE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FROM KHOU TO THE COAST SHOULD IMPROVE
BY THE MID MORNING PERIOD. WILL ADD THE MENTION OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE WAS FORECASTING LOW CEILINGS...RAW MODEL OUTPUT
SUGGESTED BEST CHANCES WILL BE MORE TOWARD THE COAST. AT LEAST
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM KHOU TO THE COAST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AT LEAST MOVE THROUGH KCLL
AND KUTS BY AROUND 08Z...AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH KCXO AND KIAH BY
12Z.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/
UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO CANCEL THE REST OF THE TORNADO WATCH.
DISCUSSION...
THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS DIMINISHED THIS MORNING. CANCELED
THE REST OF THE TORNADO WATCH. NEW ZONES OUT BY 700 AM. 43
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/
UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO CANCEL MUCH OF THE TORNADO WATCH AND TO LOWER
POPS FOR THIS MORNING. 43
DISCUSSION...
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS DIMINISHED FOR MUCH OF SE TX AND
WILL ISSUE NEW ZONES TO CLEAN THINGS UP. STILL HAVE SOME CONCERNS
FOR REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN AND WILL LEAVE SEVERE WORDING IN THE
ZFP FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL. NEW ZONES OUT SHORTLY. 43
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/
DISCUSSION...
AT 3 AM...A LINEAR MCS IS JUST ENTERING THE CWA. IT APPEARS THAT
THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BEFORE 12Z AND MAY
PRODUCE SOME WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL BEFORE EXITING SE TX. THINGS GET
MORE COMPLICATED FOR THIS AFTN. SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY DOMINATE IN
THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN...BUT FCST SOUNDINGS
SHOW A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY FOR THE AFTN. NOT SURE HOW THINGS
WILL PLAY OUT BUT WILL KEEP HIGH END CHANCE POPS FOR NOW AND SEE
IF CONVECTION CAN REFIRE. WILL ALSO MAINTAIN CHANCE OF SEVERE FOR
THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS COLDER AIR ALOFT WOULD SUPPORT A HAIL
THREAT. WILL BE TWEAKING POPS BEFORE THE MORNING ZFP IS ISSUED.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SE TX TONIGHT AND THIS FEATURE COULD ALSO
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA. THE FRONT WILL USHER IN
COOLER TEMPS AND BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS. MAV GUIDANCE IS BULLISH
WITH WINDS AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
WRAP AROUND CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. SUNSHINE
SHOULD RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. DEW
PTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S SO HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE AS
PLEASANT AS THE TEMPERATURES. AFTER ALL THE ACTIVE WEATHER OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...IT`LL BE NICE TO GET A 5-6 DAY STRETCH
OF NICE WEATHER. MOISTURE RETURN WON`T REALLY GET GOING UNTIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK SO PULLED RAIN CHANCES FROM NEXT WEEKEND. 43
MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE GULF WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING AS INFLOW INCREASES TOWARD A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THESE WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH LATER TODAY...
ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
WITH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT INCREASING TO ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
TUESDAY AT LEAST OVER THE GULF WATERS. THE STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL LEAD TO WATER LEVELS FALLING TO BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 FEET BELOW
NORMAL IN THE WESTERN SHORES OF THE BAYS AND IN THE HOUSTON SHIP
CHANNEL. THE WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 80 60 67 49 72 / 50 40 20 10 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 82 63 70 49 74 / 50 40 20 10 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 78 69 73 56 71 / 40 20 10 10 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
335 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER CONDITIONS MIXED IN WITH BOUTS OF WET WEATHER PREVAIL INTO
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. A BRIEF LULL WEDNESDAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE AND WARMER CONDITIONS IS QUICKLY REPLACED BY A RETURN OF
COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. THE WEEKEND
LOOKS BETTER WITH SEASONABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
TILL THIS EVENING...
FOCUS UPON A RAIN-BAND PUSHING S OUT OF MAINE ALONG A BACK-DOOR
COLD FRONT. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HRRR TRENDS AS WE GO INTO
EVENING. LIKELY TO HIGH CATEGORICAL POPS MAINLY E OF THE CT-RIVER
VALLEY. PUNCH OF COLDER AIR S/SW AS WINDS TURN BLUSTERY OUT OF THE
N/NE. MORE DETAILS IN THE /TONIGHT/ DISCUSSION BELOW.
TONIGHT...
BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH S THROUGH THE REGION. SHOWER
ACTIVITY CONTINUING ALONG AND AHEAD THOUGH STRUGGLING AGAINST DRIER
AIR ACROSS THE REGION /SEE 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM AROUND S NEW ENGLAND/.
NEVERTHELESS STRONG FORCING OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE PER MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE TO THE BACK-BUILDING NEARLY-STACKED LOW INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE SHOULD YIELD ACTIVITY. IN ITS WAKE EXPECT COLD-AIR ADVECTION
TO PROCEED WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS ALLOWING A STEEPENING BOUNDARY-
LAYER PROFILE /SEE 12Z UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS OVER NEWFOUNDLAND/ THAT
ALLOWS FOR THE MIX-DOWN OF FASTER MOMENTUM AND DRIER AIR TO THE
SURFACE.
SO WILL SEE DECENT RAIN CHANCES THAT CONTINUE INTO MIDNIGHT. LIKELY
OR HIGHER POPS. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO THUNDER. NW-FLOW
BACKS OUT OF THE N/NE AND BECOMES BLUSTERY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH...STRONGEST ACROSS THE MASS E-SHORE ESPECIALLY
CAPE ANN / CAPE COD / ISLANDS. GUSTS IN THESE LOCATIONS COULD GET AS
HIGH AS 35 MPH IF CONDITIONS ARE JUST RIGHT. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS
WOULD SUGGEST POTENTIAL OUTCOMES. THE S PUSH OF A COLDER AIRMASS
DROPS TEMPERATURES TO LOWS AROUND THE LOW-40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...
CONDITIONS IMPROVE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. IN ITS WAKE EXPECT A WELL-
MIXED PROFILE WITH A CONTINUED COLD-POOL ALOFT ENHANCED BY ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND DAYTIME HEATING. ANTICIPATE BLUSTERY N-WINDS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20-25 MPH AND DRIER AIR WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING
DOWN TO 30-PERCENT. SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL CONCERNS...
BUT IN COLLABORATION WITH OTHER FORECAST OFFICES AND FIRE-WEATHER
STATE LIAISONS...FEEL THE THREAT IS MARGINAL AND WILL NOT BE
GOING WITH ANY HEADLINES.
OVERALL A DRY FORECAST AS BETTER FORCING OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE
STAYS TO THE E. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE ACROSS E NEW
ENGLAND ALONG THE W-PERIPHERY OF THE NEARLY-STACKED LOW CONTINUING
TO SPIN ACROSS THE WATERS SE OF CANADA. HIGHS INTO THE UPPER-50S
TO LOW-60S. BUT COMBINED WITH WINDS... COULD FEEL 5-DEGREES
COOLER. SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE CONDITIONS MAKING IT FEEL
UNSEASONABLE.
TUESDAY NIGHT...
REMAINING QUIET AND DRY AS NW-FLOW DIMINISHES. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
LINGER ALONG THE W-PERIPHERY OF THE LOW SE OF CANADA. IT IS POSSIBLE
SOME LOCATIONS COULD RADIATE OUT SHOULD WINDS BECOME LIGHT ENOUGH.
CONFIDENCE IS WITHIN SHELTERED VALLEY REGIMES. LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-
30S TO LOW-40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* PICK OF THE WEEK IS WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND NORMAL TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS
* UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
* IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST. HOWEVER...THEY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING AND HOW
QUICKLY THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE
WEEK. THESE DISCREPANCIES THEN AFFECT THE TIMING OF
FEATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MODEL RUN.
WEDNESDAY...SHOULD BE THE PICK OF THE WEEK. DRY WEATHER AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL RANGE ARE EXPECTED.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST AND STARTS TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. RIGHT NOW...THE TRACK LOOKS TO KEEP IT WELL OUTSIDE
THE BENCHMARK WITH LIMITED IMPACT ON OUR LAND ZONES...BUT
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE MARINE ZONES. MAIN IMPACT TO THE LAND
WILL BE OVERCAST SKIES AND POSSIBLY A BIT OF RAIN CLOSE TO THE
COAST. HOWEVER...THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON THE EVENTUAL TRACK
OF THE LOW. MODEL RUNS DO SEEM TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON KEEPING THE LOW FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE BUT THIS IS A NEW TREND SO
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A VERY NICE WEEKEND
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND PLEASANT...
DRY WEATHER. RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SOMETIME SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS AS A RESULT OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC AND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE TIMING OF THIS WILL LARGELY BE BASED ON HOW THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY TURN OUT.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
.SHORT-TERM /TILL 0Z WEDNESDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
INTO TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW-END VFR CIGS. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
WITH -SHRA...ACROSS E MA / RI...IMPROVEMENT BY 6Z. LOW-RISK IFR
FOR CAPE. NW-WINDS BACKING N-NE BECOMING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS
UPWARDS OF 30-35 KTS ACROSS E MA COAST INCLUDING CAPE.
TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW-END VFR CIGS BECOMING SCT. BKN
DECKS ACROSS E MA. THOUGH NOT AS BLUSTERY...N-WINDS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20-25 KTS...ESP ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND E-COAST MA.
TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW-END VFR CIGS LINGERING ACROSS
E-COASTAL MA. OTHERWISE SKC. NW-FLOW DIMINISHING.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. N-WIND GUSTS INTENSIFYING
TOWARDS MIDNIGHT...DIMINISHING TOWARDS THE MORNING HRS. FEEL THE
NW-WINDS WILL BE PRONOUNCED TO KEEP SEA-BREEZE OFFSHORE TUESDAY.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR WITH A LOW
PROBABILITY OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST.
SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
.SHORT-TERM /TILL TUESDAY EVENING/...
130 PM UPDATE...
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT A WEAK SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY
REMAINS ALONG THE COAST LENDING TO SOME VARIANCE IN THE WIND AT
TIMES. NEVERTHELESS THE DOMINANT FLOW WILL BE NW WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS. SEAS LIKELY TO ENHANCE...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS EVENING AS A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS S ALONG WHICH SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
WITH PASSAGE...WIND GUSTS INCREASE OUT OF THE N WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALES. THESE WINDS CONTINUE INTO MORNING DIMINISHING THROUGH
TUESDAY. SMALL-CRAFTS CONTINUE...GALES FORECAST TO BE SHORT-LIVED
SO WILL EMPHASIZE THREAT IN THE SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORY. WAVES
BUILDING AROUND 6-8 FEET ON THE E-OUTER WATERS...SUBSIDING INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.
.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN DURATION AND MAGNITUDE OF TRENDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING EAST OF
THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NECESSARY WITH
GALE WARNINGS POSSIBLE.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-232.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
FOR ANZ233-234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ230.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-
237-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
315 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY VISIT THE AREA DURING
MIDWEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...WITH IMPROVEMENTS EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
130 PM UPDATE...
LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHWARD TO WHICH THE HRRR HAS TRENDED
WELL...PERHAPS AN HOUR OFF. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW APPLIES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MOVING OFFSHORE ALONG AN ELONGATED
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT STRETCHED MID-LEVEL ENERGY REARWARD OF THE
NEARLY-STACKED LOW SE OF NEWFOUNDLAND SWEEP ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND.
FOCUS SHIFTS TOWARDS A RAIN-BAND PUSHING S OUT OF MAINE ALONG A
BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT. COLLOCATED WITH A STOUT MID-LEVEL IMPULSE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACK-BUILDING LOW AHEAD OF WHICH DEEP-LAYER
FORCING IS INVOKED HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HRRR TRENDS AS WE GO
INTO EVENING. LIKELY TO HIGH CATEGORICAL POPS MAINLY E OF THE CT-
RIVER VALLEY. PUNCH OF COLDER AIR S/SW AS WINDS TURN BLUSTERY OUT
OF THE N/NE. MORE DETAILS IN THE /TONIGHT/ DISCUSSION BELOW.
SO FOR TODAY...ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS WHICH WOULD
YIELD SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ON THE ORDER OF A TRACE TO A
COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS. TEMPERATURES KEPT AT BELOW-SEASONABLE LEVELS
AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-50S...COOLER ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND
ALONG THE COAST. SADLY NOT VERY SPRING-LIKE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF MAKES ITS CLOSET APPROACH TO
S NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...THEN STARTS TO ROTATE BACK OUT TO
SEA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS IT DOES...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
GETS INTO A PATTERN OF DECREASING MOISTURE. IN TURN...THIS MEANS A
LOWER RISK FOR RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION IF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
ENOUGH...AND WE SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE...WHERE SEABREEZES COULD
DEVELOP. THAT WOULD HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE
COASTS. AT THIS TIME...THINKING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED.
TEMPERATURES RISE SLIGHTLY TUESDAY WITH THE ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE...
BUT SHOULD STILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* PICK OF THE WEEK IS WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND NORMAL TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS
* UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
* IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST. HOWEVER...THEY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING AND HOW
QUICKLY THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE
WEEK. THESE DISCREPANCIES THEN AFFECT THE TIMING OF
FEATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MODEL RUN.
WEDNESDAY...SHOULD BE THE PICK OF THE WEEK. DRY WEATHER AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL RANGE ARE EXPECTED.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST AND STARTS TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. RIGHT NOW...THE TRACK LOOKS TO KEEP IT WELL OUTSIDE
THE BENCHMARK WITH LIMITED IMPACT ON OUR LAND ZONES...BUT
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE MARINE ZONES. MAIN IMPACT TO THE LAND
WILL BE OVERCAST SKIES AND POSSIBLY A BIT OF RAIN CLOSE TO THE
COAST. HOWEVER...THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON THE EVENTUAL TRACK
OF THE LOW. MODEL RUNS DO SEEM TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON KEEPING THE LOW FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE BUT THIS IS A NEW TREND SO
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A VERY NICE WEEKEND
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND PLEASANT...
DRY WEATHER. RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SOMETIME SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS AS A RESULT OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC AND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE TIMING OF THIS WILL LARGELY BE BASED ON HOW THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY TURN OUT.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
.SHORT-TERM /TILL 0Z WEDNESDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW-END VFR CIGS MAINLY.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH -SHRA...ACROSS E MA / RI...DEVELOPING
TOWARDS LATER AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...CONCLUDING BY 6Z. LOW-
RISK IFR FOR CAPE. NW-WINDS BACKING N-NE BECOMING BLUSTERY.
TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CIGS IMPROVE TO LOW-END VFR. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST. REMAINS
BLUSTERY OUT N TURNING NW.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEABREEZE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BACK NE TOWARDS EVENING WITH BETTER SHRA
CHANCES.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR WITH A LOW
PROBABILITY OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST.
SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
.SHORT-TERM /TILL TUESDAY EVENING/...
130 PM UPDATE...
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT A WEAK SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY
REMAINS ALONG THE COAST LENDING TO SOME VARIANCE IN THE WIND AT
TIMES. NEVERTHELESS THE DOMINANT FLOW WILL BE NW WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS. SEAS LIKELY TO ENHANCE...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS EVENING AS A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS S ALONG WHICH SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
WITH PASSAGE...WIND GUSTS INCREASE OUT OF THE N WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALES. THESE WINDS CONTINUE INTO MORNING DIMINISHING THROUGH
TUESDAY. SMALL-CRAFTS CONTINUE...BUT MAY NEED TO EXPAND AND ARE
EVALUATING THE POSSIBILITY OF GALES. WAVES BUILDING 6-8 FEET ON
THE E-OUTER WATERS.
.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN DURATION AND MAGNITUDE OF TRENDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING EAST OF
THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NECESSARY WITH
GALE WARNINGS POSSIBLE.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ232.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
FOR ANZ231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY
FOR ANZ250-254-255.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ251.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/RLG
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...BELK/RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/RLG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
140 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY VISIT THE AREA DURING
MIDWEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...WITH IMPROVEMENTS FOR THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
130 PM UPDATE...
LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHWARD TO WHICH THE HRRR HAS TRENDED
WELL...PERHAPS AN HOUR OFF. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW APPLIES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MOVING OFFSHORE ALONG AN ELONGATED
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT STRETCHED MID-LEVEL ENERGY REARWARD OF THE
NEARLY-STACKED LOW SE OF NEWFOUNDLAND SWEEP ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND.
FOCUS SHIFTS TOWARDS A RAIN-BAND PUSHING S OUT OF MAINE ALONG A
BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT. COLLOCATED WITH A STOUT MID-LEVEL IMPULSE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACK-BUILDING LOW AHEAD OF WHICH DEEP-LAYER
FORCING IS INVOKED HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HRRR TRENDS AS WE GO
INTO EVENING. LIKELY TO HIGH CATEGORICAL POPS MAINLY E OF THE CT-
RIVER VALLEY. PUNCH OF COLDER AIR S/SW AS WINDS TURN BLUSTERY OUT
OF THE N/NE. MORE DETAILS IN THE /TONIGHT/ DISCUSSION BELOW.
SO FOR TODAY...ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS WHICH WOULD
YIELD SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ON THE ORDER OF A TRACE TO A
COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS. TEMPERATURES KEPT AT BELOW-SEASONABLE LEVELS
AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-50S...COOLER ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND
ALONG THE COAST. SADLY NOT VERY SPRING-LIKE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF MAKES ITS CLOSET APPROACH TO
S NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...THEN STARTS TO ROTATE BACK OUT TO
SEA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS IT DOES...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
GETS INTO A PATTERN OF DECREASING MOISTURE. IN TURN...THIS MEANS A
LOWER RISK FOR RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION IF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
ENOUGH...AND WE SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE...WHERE SEABREEZES COULD
DEVELOP. THAT WOULD HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE
COASTS. AT THIS TIME...THINKING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED.
TEMPERATURES RISE SLIGHTLY TUESDAY WITH THE ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE...
BUT SHOULD STILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
* DIGGING TROUGH/COASTAL LOW ON THURS/FRIDAY BRINGS BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS
* IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE WEEKEND
OVERVIEW...
CLOSED LOW WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW WILL
EJECT OFFSHORE BY TUES ALLOWING FOR BRIEF RIDGING ON WED. STILL
WATCHING TWO SYSTEMS WHICH WILL PUT THE NORTHEAST BACK INTO A DEEP
TROUGH BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE
NORTHERN STREAM PHASES WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WHICH HAS ALLOWED
FOR LARGE MODEL SPREAD OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. OVERALL THE 00Z
GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWS A STRONGER OH VLY/MID ATLC UPPER LOW THUS
LEADING TO A FARTHER WESTWARD SURFACE TRACK THURSDAY. THE 00Z GFS
IS LOOKING LIKE A DEEP EXTREME WITH ITS UPR LOW THOUGH...WITH THE
GEFS MEAN AND NEW ECMWF SUPPORTING MORE MODERATE DEPTH. THEREFORE
BELIEVE GFS TO BE AN OUTLIER COMPARED THE OTHER GUIDANCE AND TRENDED
TOWARDS WPC/EC/UKMET. ONCE THE SYSTEMS PHASE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
APPEARS THAT THIS COASTAL LOW WILL STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z EC ENSEMBLES. BEGINNING OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENTS AS CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE WILL MOVE
EASTWARD.
DETAILS...
* WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH A WEAK RIDGE OVER
THE REGION. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND A BREAK IN PRECIP
AND TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE COOLER THANKS TO
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
* THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE 4 CORNERS AND
THE DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES. REGARDLESS APPEARS DEEP
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP PUTTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BACK BELOW NORMAL
FOR TEMPS. THIS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS
AND PUSH NORTHWARDS. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER STALLING THE
LOW INSIDE THE BENCHMARK FOR SEVERAL HOURS. TRENDED TOWARDS THE
CONSISTENT EC WHICH STILL KEEPS IT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK...YET SLIGHTLY STRONGER THEN PREV RUNS. BELIEVE THURS AND
FRI WILL BE MORE HIT OF MISS SHOWERS AND CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHER
POPS ALONG THE CAPE AND ISLANDS FOR COASTAL SYSTEM. ALSO KNOCKED
TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM GUIDANCE AS CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DIURNAL
HEATING.
* THE WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY AS WEAK
RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. MAY NEED TO WATCH QUICK MOVING
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WHICH COULD GIVE SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL HOPING FOR A NICE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL.
* MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY IS LOOKING WARM BUT STILL UNCERTAIN ON PRECIP CHANCES AS
PATTERN WILL ALL BE DEPENDENT ON THE THURS/FRI SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
.SHORT-TERM /TILL 0Z WEDNESDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW-END VFR CIGS MAINLY.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH -SHRA...ACROSS E MA / RI...DEVELOPING
TOWARDS LATER AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...CONCLUDING BY 6Z. LOW-
RISK IFR FOR CAPE. NW-WINDS BACKING N-NE BECOMING BLUSTERY.
TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CIGS IMPROVE TO LOW-END VFR. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST. REMAINS
BLUSTERY OUT N TURNING NW.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEABREEZE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BACK NE TOWARDS EVENING WITH BETTER SHRA
CHANCES.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS. SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF COASTLINE.
CIGS/VSBYS COULD BE LOWER DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
.SHORT-TERM /TILL TUESDAY EVENING/...
130 PM UPDATE...
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT A WEAK SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY
REMAINS ALONG THE COAST LENDING TO SOME VARIANCE IN THE WIND AT
TIMES. NEVERTHELESS THE DOMINANT FLOW WILL BE NW WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS. SEAS LIKELY TO ENHANCE...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS EVENING AS A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS S ALONG WHICH SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
WITH PASSAGE...WIND GUSTS INCREASE OUT OF THE N WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALES. THESE WINDS CONTINUE INTO MORNING DIMINISHING THROUGH
TUESDAY. SMALL-CRAFTS CONTINUE...BUT MAY NEED TO EXPAND AND ARE
EVALUATING THE POSSIBILITY OF GALES. WAVES BUILDING 6-8 FEET ON
THE E-OUTER WATERS.
.OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY...GOOD BOATING WEATHER AS WIND AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGES FROM THE
CAROLINA COASTLINE AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW CLOSE THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM
MAKES IT TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. IF IT STAYS WELL
OFFSHORE...SWELLS COULD BRING A PERIOD OF ROUGH SEAS TO OUR COASTAL
WATERS. A CLOSER APPROACH WOULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS FOR
FRIDAY. AGAIN HAVE UNDERCUT WNA WAVE GUIDANCE BY 40 TO 50
PERCENT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ232.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
FOR ANZ231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY
FOR ANZ250-254-255.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ251.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
107 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1049 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE MAJORITY OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS, WITH SOME
CIRRUS STREAMING ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AND TEMPERATURES ON THEIR WAY TO A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN MOST PLACES. QUIET WEATHER DOMINATES WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. NO UPDATES TO THE
FORECAST ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A HIGH CENTERED IN WESTERN ONTARIO
INTO WEST CENTRAL IL WILL KEEP US COOL AND GENERALLY CLEAR TODAY.
THE RAP AND HRRR BOTH INDICATE THAT SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP IN
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
IN EAST CENTRAL IL. IN ADDITION, PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
RESULT IN PERIODICALLY GUSTY NORTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF
THE SURFACE RIDGING AND A DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
LATE APRIL.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015
GENERAL NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO MID
WEEK...AS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES
TO WOBBLE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. DESPITE THIS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 60S THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NEW MEXICO WILL DRIFT EAST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BUT THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINS
WELL TO OUR SOUTH. MEANWHILE...A LARGE UPPER WAVE OVER WESTERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND CENTRAL MONTANA THIS MORNING WILL BE REACHING THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY EVENING. EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD BEEN STRUGGLING
WITH A PIECE OF ENERGY PINCHING OFF SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY AS THE
WAVE ARRIVED...BUT LATEST RUNS SHOW A SIZABLE UPPER LOW DROPPING
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH...AS THE CIRCULATION AROUND IT COULD RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS
OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN CWA BY THURSDAY...BUT GENERAL CONSENSUS
NOW KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION JUST TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER, IT WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS IN THE 60S...BEFORE A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
WEEKEND PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN A CHALLENGE...WITH THE GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR MCS ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY
AS WEAK UPPER IMPULSES ZIP THROUGH. HAVE KEPT SATURDAY POP`S IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE...WHILE INCREASING THEM ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY AS A STRONGER WAVE ARRIVES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015
VFR AND BREEZY NNE WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE IN THE OVERNIGHT. LITTLE EXPECTED IN THE WAY OF
CIGS...WITH A SCT CU FIELD DEVELOPING BTWN 4500 AND 5000 FT. WILL
WATCH CLOSELY FOR THE XOVER VALUES THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SO FAR,
WINDS SHOULD STAY UP JUST ENOUGH TO COUNTER FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT, SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. KEEPING VFR THROUGHOUT.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
147 PM MDT MON APR 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM MDT MON APR 27 2015
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE SCALE CLOSED UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER TX PANHANDLE WITH MID LEVEL VORTICITY ROTATING
THROUGH OK/SOUTHER KS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO
BUILD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR
CWA..ALONG WITH FALLING TDS.
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...RADAR SHOWS BULK OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIP ALONG KS/OK BORDER TRANSITING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...THOUGH
THERE ARE SOME LIGHT RETURNS ROTATING NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
PART OF OUR CWA. BASED ON INCREASING TD DEPRESSION OVER THE
CWA...AND AXIS OF FORCING/BETTER MOISTURE WELL SOUTH...ANY OF THESE
LIGHT RETURNS WOULD LIKELY BE VIRGA AT MOST THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR WITH BUILDING
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. GOOD RADIATION CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
LOCATIONS IN OUR CWA TO REACH FREEZING (POSSIBLY LOWER)
TONIGHT...THOUGH WITH AN INCREASE IN TD VALUES ADVERTISED FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE WE MAY NOT FALL AS MUCH. WET GROUND CONDITIONS COULD
ALSO KEEP TD VALUES FROM DROPPING AS MUCH AS ADVERTISED WHICH SEEMS
TO ALREADY BE THE CASE THIS AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY...H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST AND TEMPS ALOFT WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE...AND BETTER DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS IN
THE 60S/NEAR 70 FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. THERE IS STILL A SECONDARY H3
JET PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND A LIGHT PRECIP
SIGNAL WITH SOME GUIDANCE IN OUR NORTH. I STILL CANT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SPRINKLE IN OUR NORTHEAST WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AS
MID LEVEL VORT MAX PASSES TO THE NORTH AND COLD POOL DEVELOPS...BUT
MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. IN THE END THIS
MAY JUST BE VIRGA AND LITTLE ELSE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT MON APR 27 2015
GOING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...H5/H7 RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ENTIRE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS THRU MIDWEEK. MODELS
TREND THIS RIDGE TO FLATTEN... AND ALLOW FOR ZONAL FLOW FOR THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK ON INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS TO ENSUE INTO THURSDAY...BUT WITH RIDGE
FLATTENING ALLOWING ZONAL FLOW...THE AREA WILL SEE A SEVERAL 700MB
SHORTWAVES WORKING OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS REGION. EACH
SUBSEQUENT SYSTEM WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR RW/TRW...WITH BEST
CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AT THE END OF THE WEEK. SURFACE LEE-
SIDE TROUGHS WILL WORK OFF THE FRONT RANGE WITH EACH
SYSTEM...PROVIDING ENHANCEMENT FOR TRW TO FORM...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HRS. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED WILL RANGE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR BOTH HIGH/LOWS. 850 TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR
HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S...ON UP TO 80F IN SPOTS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...WITH SOME L50S
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL/COULD BE TEMPERED SOME BY THE
EXTENT OF CLOUDS FROM EXPECTED PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME VIRGA AT KGLD AND KMCK THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND COULD BRING ISOLATED SPRINKLES TO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. DECIDED TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF KMCK TAF
CONSIDERING LIMITED CONFIDENCE AND COVERAGE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO GUST AT KGLD 20-25KT THIS AFTERNOON DECREASING AROUND 00Z.
LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10KT ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. AFTER THAT
PREVAILING WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT BOTH KGLD/KMCK AND
INCREASE TO NEAR 12KT BY MIDDAY TUESDAY AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1256 PM MDT MON APR 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM MDT MON APR 27 2015
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE SCALE CLOSED UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER TX PANHANDLE WITH MID LEVEL VORTICITY ROTATING
THROUGH OK/SOUTHER KS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO
BUILD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR
CWA..ALONG WITH FALLING TDS.
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...RADAR SHOWS BULK OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIP ALONG KS/OK BORDER TRANSITING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...THOUGH
THERE ARE SOME LIGHT RETURNS ROTATING NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
PART OF OUR CWA. BASED ON INCREASING TD DEPRESSION OVER THE
CWA...AND AXIS OF FORCING/BETTER MOISTURE WELL SOUTH...ANY OF THESE
LIGHT RETURNS WOULD LIKELY BE VIRGA AT MOST THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR WITH BUILDING
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. GOOD RADIATION CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
LOCATIONS IN OUR CWA TO REACH FREEZING (POSSIBLY LOWER)
TONIGHT...THOUGH WITH AN INCREASE IN TD VALUES ADVERTISED FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE WE MAY NOT FALL AS MUCH. WET GROUND CONDITIONS COULD
ALSO KEEP TD VALUES FROM DROPPING AS MUCH AS ADVERTISED WHICH SEEMS
TO ALREADY BE THE CASE THIS AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY...H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST AND TEMPS ALOFT WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE...AND BETTER DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS IN
THE 60S/NEAR 70 FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. THERE IS STILL A SECONDARY H3
JET PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND A LIGHT PRECIP
SIGNAL WITH SOME GUIDANCE IN OUR NORTH. I STILL CANT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SPRINKLE IN OUR NORTHEAST WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AS
MID LEVEL VORT MAX PASSES TO THE NORTH AND COLD POOL DEVELOPS...BUT
MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. IN THE END THIS
MAY JUST BE VIRGA AND LITTLE ELSE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015
THE 500MB RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD AND FLATTEN
THUS LEADING TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND NEARLY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS GOING INTO FRIDAY. STRONG 500MB FLOW ACROSS THE
ROCKIES ON SATURDAY LEADS TO THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH FAVORING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE TROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH THE GFS BEING QUITE A
BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH AS IT PROGRESSES
EASTWARD.
I WENT WITH MORE OF A GFS SOLUTION IN THE 4 TO 7 DAY BASED ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROUGH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
TO THE WEST OF THE CWA AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THIS TROUGH. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME VIRGA AT KGLD AND KMCK THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND COULD BRING ISOLATED SPRINKLES TO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. DECIDED TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF KMCK TAF
CONSIDERING LIMITED CONFIDENCE AND COVERAGE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO GUST AT KGLD 20-25KT THIS AFTERNOON DECREASING AROUND 00Z.
LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10KT ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. AFTER THAT
PREVAILING WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT BOTH KGLD/KMCK AND
INCREASE TO NEAR 12KT BY MIDDAY TUESDAY AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...TML
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1127 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015
RAINFALL IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA IS MOVING OUT FASTER
THAN ANTICIPATED. SO UPDATED TO REDUCE THE POPS EVEN FASTER THAN
BEFORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE HOW FAST PRECIPITATION ENDS AND CLEARING
BEGINS TODAY AND ITS AFFECTS ON THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...LOW
TEMPERATURES THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
TUESDAY...AND HOW MUCH THE WARMUP WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SATELLITE SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WITH AMPLIFIED FLOW
EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
AT JET LEVEL...ALL THE MODELS WERE CLOSE ON THE JET WITH THE NAM AND
THE ECMWF DOING A LITTLE BETTER. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS NOT TOO BAD
AT MID LEVELS WITH THE GFS...CANADIAN AND UKMET DOING THE BEST. THE
NAM WAS DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE
GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE CANADIAN AND NAM ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...RAINFALL HAS ALREADY ENDED OVER THE NORTHEAST TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA AS THE LAST BAND OF RAINFALL CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTH AND WEST. THIS IS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. MOST MODEL OUTPUT NO
MATTER HOW WELL IT IS CURRENTLY DOING ON THE POSITION OF THE
RAINFALL...ENDS THE RAINFALL BY 18Z. THE HRRR IS DOING THE BEST ON
ITS POSITION AT THIS TIME. BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND
HRRR...WILL LOWER THE POPS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY AND HAVE
THEM END BY LATE IN THE MORNING. WILL END UP HAVING SOME KIND OF
FOG MENTION THROUGH MID MORNING DUE TO THE CLEARING...MOIST LOW
LEVELS AND CONTINUED UPSLOPE WINDS.
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE DAY AND THERE IS A LOT DRIER AIR FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH MID
LEVELS THAT WILL BE PULLED INTO THE AREA. SO AS THE LAST FEW DAYS
HAS SHOWN...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA SHOULD BE THE WARMEST
SINCE IT CLEAR THE FIRST AND MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
GOING MAXES.
MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS...LIGHTER WINDS...AND LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR TONIGHT. CURRENT GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE WARMER
THAN YESTERDAYS. MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST HALF WILL HAVE WET GROUND AND
THAT MAYBE COULD MODERATE THE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN PLACE AND WENT WITH THE
COOLEST GUIDANCE.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF NORTHERN JET IS
APPROACHING DURING THE DAY AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA WILL BE AFFECTED OR BE CLOSE TO BE AFFECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS JET MOVES ACROSS DURING THE NIGHT. NEW MODEL OUTPUT
KEEPS ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL NORTH OF OUR AREA. THERE IS SOME
COLD AIR ALOFT WITH A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
MOVING THROUGH AT THE SAME TIME AS THE JET LIFT.
THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING IN. GOOD
LAPSE RATES ARE IN PLACE AS WELL. SAME PROBLEM AS THE DAY SHIFT
POINTED OUT YESTERDAY...LACK OF MOISTURE/DEEP DRY LAYER...ARE
STILL IN PLACE. THERE IS ENOUGH THERE THAT CONTINUING THE
SPRINKLES THE DAY SHIFT PUT IN LOOKS REASONABLE.
AS STATED ABOVE THERE LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE ANOTHER PRESSURE OR
COLD SURGE THAT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUING. CURRENTLY THERE IS A FRONT TO THE NORTH WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING SO THIS DEFINITELY SEEMS REASONABLE. PLUS
CLOUD COVER MAY INCREASE IN THE FAR NORTH DURING THE DAY. SO
TEMPERED THE WARMUP AND TENDED TO GO TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
GUIDANCE.
ANOTHER WEAK WIND FIELD IS IN PLACE DURING THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...IT
DOES LOOK LIKE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE/DRAINAGE WINDS DO DEVELOP IN THE
LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT. STILL THE SETUP IN PLACE WOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE AND TRENDED IN THAT
DIRECTION.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH DOES IT WARM
UP AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/PLENTY OF SUN MOVE INTO THE AREA.
DESPITE THIS...STILL RATHER SHARP NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE.
SINCE THERE IS ALSO A LACK OF CROSS MOUNTAIN COMPONENT ON THE MID
LEVEL WINDS...DO NOT EXPECT A STRONG LEE TROUGH TO DEVELOP. IN
FACT...WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT THE SURFACE WIND FIELD IS
ACTUALLY RESPONDING LIKE ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY IS MOVING THROUGH
WITH AN UNFAVORABLE SURFACE WIND FIELD IN PLACE. SO BACKED OFF A
LITTLE ON THE WARMING WITH THE NWP LOOKING A LITTLE WARM IN THIS
PATTERN. WENT CLOSER TO THE 2 METER AND BIAS ADJUSTMENT ON THE 850
MB TEMPERATURE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015
THE 500MB RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD AND FLATTEN
THUS LEADING TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND NEARLY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS GOING INTO FRIDAY. STRONG 500MB FLOW ACROSS THE
ROCKIES ON SATURDAY LEADS TO THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH FAVORING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE TROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH THE GFS BEING QUITE A
BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH AS IT PROGRESSES
EASTWARD.
I WENT WITH MORE OF A GFS SOLUTION IN THE 4 TO 7 DAY BASED ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROUGH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
TO THE WEST OF THE CWA AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THIS TROUGH. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME VIRGA AT KGLD AND KMCK THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND COULD BRING ISOLATED SPRINKLES TO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. DECIDED TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF KMCK TAF
CONSIDERING LIMITED CONFIDENCE AND COVERAGE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO GUST AT KGLD 20-25KT THIS AFTERNOON DECREASING AROUND 00Z.
LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10KT ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. AFTER THAT
PREVAILING WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT BOTH KGLD/KMCK AND
INCREASE TO NEAR 12KT BY MIDDAY TUESDAY AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...TML
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
104 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015
.AVIATION...
AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE 27/18Z TAF PERIOD INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS
AND PERIODS OF IFR. CONVECTION ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION HAD
BECOME ISOLATED IN COVERAGE AT MIDDAY. EXPECT THIS TO INCREASE
AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH NUMEROUS TSTMS POSSIBLE BY LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND WIND
GUST IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS. IFR
CIGS WILL RETURN TONIGHT...BECOMING WIDESPREAD AFTER 06Z. PERIODS
OF LIGHT RAIN AND FOG WILL ALSO BRING VSBYS BETWEEN 1 AND 3 MILES
AT TIMES. SURFACE WIND EAST TO NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. /14/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE LAST OF THE EARLY MORNING QLCS HAS FINALLY MOVED EWD...LEAVING
ONLY SOME SCT SHWRS/TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE REGION. HAVE CANCELLED
TORNADO WATCH 125 AS A RESULT. LOOKS AS IF WE WILL GET A BREAK
BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION MOVES IN FROM THE W LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE TAYLORED POPS AROUND THIS...WHICH MEANT LOWERING
POPS FOR OUR ERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS/DEW POINTS LOOK
REASONABLE...SO WILL LET THEM RIDE AS IS. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE
OUT SHORTLY. /12/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 733 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE NORTHEAST TEXAS COUNTIES AND
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA PARISHES IN TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 125.
TORNADO WATCH NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR ANY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 126 CONTINUED IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT.
ALSO LOWERED THE RAIN CHANCES AND QPF AMOUNTS FOR THOSE AREAS THAT
LOOKED TO BE DECREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITIES OF
RAIN. /06/
DISCUSSION...
RAIN HAS DECREASED OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHEAST
TEXAS AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND INVERTED TROUGH.
LATER TODAY HRRR MODEL DATA SHOWS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO
PARTS OF EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WHICH MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. ALSO ACROSS REMAINING PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO OTHER SECTIONS OF ARKANSAS...AND NORTH LOUISIANA. /06/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 53 63 46 71 / 80 60 10 10
MLU 56 64 48 70 / 80 70 30 10
DEQ 49 60 42 71 / 80 60 10 10
TXK 51 61 46 70 / 80 60 10 10
ELD 51 59 44 70 / 80 70 30 10
TYR 54 64 47 71 / 80 40 10 0
GGG 53 63 48 71 / 80 40 10 10
LFK 59 68 50 73 / 80 40 10 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
341 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO SRN JAMES BAY. TO THE E...A MID
LEVEL LOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES/NRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST EXTENDS BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND WRAPS SOME MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE UPPER LAKES. AS OF 19Z...W EDGE OF THE STRATOCU DECK
FM THIS MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW RUNS FROM ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE FAR
ERN COUNTIES OF UPPER MI. CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED INTO CENTRAL UPPER
MI THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT WITH THE MID-LVL AND SFC HIGH
PRES RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR EXCEPT
PARTLY CLOUDY EAST WHERE THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE FOR CLOUDS ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRES TROUGH AT
LEAST INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TONIGHT TO DROP INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE INTERIOR WEST WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL MAXIMIZED DUE TO CALM WINDS UNDER AXIS OF SFC RIDGE AND PWATS
OF .25 INCH OR LESS. ELSEWHERE MIN TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 30S.
ON TUESDAY...MODELS INDICATE SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NRN
PLAINS BUT SHOW BEST Q-VECT CONV AND MID-LVL MOISTURE ASSOC WITH
SHORTWAVE GENERALLY LIFTING NORTH AND WEST OF UPPER MI. MODELS HINT
THAT PERHAPS THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA COULD SEE SOME
SPRINKLES/-SHRA TUE EVENING. BUT GIVEN THE DRYNESS OF THE AIR MASS
ALREADY IN PLACE WL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FCST THROUGH 00Z WED BUT
REFLECT EXPECTED INCREASE IN MID-LVL CLOUDS ALONG WEAK COLD-FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN GRIDS. HIGH TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST COULD REACH
INTO THE MID 60S...BUT DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS UNDER
WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER (IN THE 50S) ALONG THE
GREAT LAKES AND EAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015
A RIDGE (FROM HIGH PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA) WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES EVEN AS SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
THE FIRST WAVE AND DECAYING COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE CWA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD (TUESDAY NIGHT)...BUT MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIMITED AND THE BEST MID LEVEL FORCING SLIDES TO
THE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AT THIS POINT...DIDN/T FEEL STRONGLY
ENOUGH TO ADD ANY POPS IN FOR THE LAND AREAS (KEPT OVER NRN
LAKE SUPERIOR)...BUT IT MAY BE A SITUATION WHERE WE MIGHT HAVE TO
ADD SOME SPRINKLES TO THE FORECAST OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THAT FIRST WAVE...ANOTHER WAVE (CURRENTLY
ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE IN NORTHERN ALBERTA) WILL DIVE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND AFFECTING THE
EASTERN U.P. ON WEDNESDAY. ONCE AGAIN...WITH LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH...ANY PRECIP WILL BE TIED TO THE MOISTURE INDICATED
BELOW 850MB ON THE MODELS. THERE IS SOME LIFT IN THAT REGION...TIED
TO THE POCKET OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...BUT WOULDN/T
EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN CLOUDS AND A FEW SPRINKLES. WITH THIS WAVE
LOOKING MUCH STRONGER THAN THE FIRST...WILL ADD SOME SPRINKLES OVER
THE EAST AND NORTH CENTRAL (WHICH MAY HAVE SOME UPSLOPE HELP) FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AN UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING EAST ON
FRIDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY WILL KEEP TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL AS CLOUDS DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. THEN...AS WINDS
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES RISE TO
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES UNDER DEEP MIXING (TO 800-750MB) AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES EAST AND PARTLY CLOUDY WEST. FORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND OFFSET THE LOWER RH (UPPER 20S TO MID 30S) AS THE
U.P. IS IN ITS CRITICAL TIME BEFORE GREEN-UP.
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING EAST...THE REGION WILL TRANSITION TO
ZONAL FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND POTENTIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK. THAT
WILL PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED
SHORTWAVES BRUSH THE AREA. TIMING THESE WAVES IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT
IN THESE SITUATIONS...SO WILL SHOW SOME SLIGHT CHANCES (ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WEST) ASSOCIATED WITH TWO WAVES QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SUNDAY LOOKS
DRY AT THIS POINT...WITH ANOTHER WAVE POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THIS
WAVE...WHETHER IT STAYS NORTH OR MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BUT THERE
THEY INDICATE ENOUGH BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION TO SUPPORT
SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD WITH DAYTIME LAKE
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS DOMINATING WINDS AND WIND DIRECTIONS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015
AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS E ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL FALL OFF TO MOSTLY UNDER 10KT ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE. ON
TUE...WINDS WILL BE UNDER 15KT AS THE RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A WEAK LOW
PRES TROF THAT PASSES TUE NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...ANOTHER HIGH PRES
WILL RIDGE S FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WED/THU. AS
THE HIGH BEGINS RIDGING S INTO THE UPPER LAKES WED...WINDS OVER ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY GUST TO NEAR 20KT ONCE AGAIN. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER OVER THE W. WITH WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER LAKES
THU INTO SAT...WIND SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNDER 15KT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
308 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO SRN JAMES BAY. TO THE E...A MID
LEVEL LOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES/NRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST EXTENDS BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND WRAPS SOME MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE UPPER LAKES. AS OF 19Z...W EDGE OF THE STRATOCU DECK
FM THIS MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW RUNS FROM ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE FAR
ERN COUNTIES OF UPPER MI. CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED INTO CENTRAL UPPER
MI THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT WITH THE MID-LVL AND SFC HIGH
PRES RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR EXCEPT
PARTLY CLOUDY EAST WHERE THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE FOR CLOUDS ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRES TROUGH AT
LEAST INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TONIGHT TO DROP INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE INTERIOR WEST WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL MAXIMIZED DUE TO CALM WINDS UNDER AXIS OF SFC RIDGE AND PWATS
OF .25 INCH OR LESS. ELSEWHERE MIN TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 30S.
ON TUESDAY...MODELS INDICATE SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NRN
PLAINS BUT SHOW BEST Q-VECT CONV AND MID-LVL MOISTURE ASSOC WITH
SHORTWAVE GENERALLY LIFTING NORTH AND WEST OF UPPER MI. MODELS HINT
THAT PERHAPS THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA COULD SEE SOME
SPRINKLES/-SHRA TUE EVENING. BUT GIVEN THE DRYNESS OF THE AIR MASS
ALREADY IN PLACE WL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FCST THROUGH 00Z WED BUT
REFLECT EXPECTED INCREASE IN MID-LVL CLOUDS ALONG WEAK COLD-FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN GRIDS. HIGH TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST COULD REACH
INTO THE MID 60S...BUT DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS UNDER
WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER (IN THE 50S) ALONG THE
GREAT LAKES AND EAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015
MODELS STILL SHOWING POOR AGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY
WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY POSSIBLY SHIFTING THROUGH OR NEAR THE REGION
TUE INTO THU. THE 00Z/29 IS SHOWING THE MOST PRECIP AS A RESULT OF
SHOWING STRONGER ENERGY MORE DIRECTLY IMPACT THE CWA. HOWEVER...THE
GFS STILL ONLY SHOWS LESS THAN 0.05 INCHES OF RAIN TUE
EVENING...0.01-0.02 INCHES WED AFTERNOON...AND UP TO 0.15 INCHES
OVER THE FAR E LATE WED. LITTLE TO NO QPF SEEN FROM OTHER
MODELS...SO THE GFS IS MORE OF AN OUTLIER. THAT COMBINED WITH THE
FACT THAT THE LACK OF PRECIP HAS BEEN PERSISTENT LATELY...WILL NOT
INCLUDE PRECIP IN THE FORECAST. OF COURSE...THE STRENGTH AND TRACK
OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPS DUE TO BOTH
AIRMASS TEMPS AND A PRECIP/CLOUD COVER. TUE WILL BE WARMER THAN WED
AND THU AS MODELS DO AT LEAST AGREE THAT THE AIRMASS WILL BE COOLER
ON WED AND THU...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECIP/EXACT TEMPS FRI THROUGH SUN AS
WELL WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON FRI BEING BROKEN DOWN BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY/TROUGHING MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA. THE 12Z/26 ECMWF SHOWS
LESS THAN 0.05 INCHES OF QPF ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT ON FRI INTO FRI
NIGHT...BUT OTHER MODELS DO NOT SUPPORT THIS IDEA. GENERAL IDEA IS
THAT SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETAKE CONTROL ON SAT...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. PRECIP CHANCES ARE HIGHER ON SUN AS THE ECMWF
BRINGS A WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW. THE
AIRMASS DEFINITELY BECOMES WARMER INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT HOW MUCH
AND WHEN THE WARMEST CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED IS CLOUDED BY MODEL
DISAGREEMENT/VARIABILITY. COULD SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S OVER THE
W HALF ON ONE OR TWO DAYS FRI THROUGH SUN...PROBABLY OCCURING ON SAT
IF IT DOES END UP BEING DRY/SUNNY AS CURRENTLY SHOWN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD WITH DAYTIME LAKE
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS DOMINATING WINDS AND WIND DIRECTIONS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015
AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS E ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL FALL OFF TO MOSTLY UNDER 10KT ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE. ON
TUE...WINDS WILL BE UNDER 15KT AS THE RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A WEAK LOW
PRES TROF THAT PASSES TUE NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...ANOTHER HIGH PRES
WILL RIDGE S FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WED/THU. AS
THE HIGH BEGINS RIDGING S INTO THE UPPER LAKES WED...WINDS OVER ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY GUST TO NEAR 20KT ONCE AGAIN. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER OVER THE W. WITH WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER LAKES
THU INTO SAT...WIND SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNDER 15KT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
102 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO SRN JAMES BAY. TO THE SE...A MID
LEVEL LOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EXTENDS BROAD
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION BACK TO THE UPPER LAKES. SHORTWAVE THAT WAS N
OF MAINE 24HRS AGO HAS TRACKED W AND SW AND IS NOW OVER NE LWR
MI/LAKE HURON. WHILE THIS WAVE HAS HELPED PUSH CLOUDS W INTO UPPER
MI...CLOUDS HAVE NOT SPREAD AS FAR W AS EXPECTED...AND CLOUD HEIGHTS
ARE QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN MODELS INDICATED. AS OF 08Z...W EDGE OF
THE STRATOCU DECK RUNS FROM NE LAKE SUPERIOR TO ROUGHLY MUNISING-
ESCANABA. CLOUDS BRIEFLY EXTENDED W INTO MARQUETTE COUNTY EARLIER
IN THE NIGHT.
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS TODAY.
LOOKING N...W EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK EXTENDS A LITTLE FARTHER W IN
NRN ONTARIO THAN OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THIS MAY BE KEY TO
SPREADING CLOUDS INTO MORE OF UPPER MI TODAY UNDER NNE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. ON THE OTHER HAND...DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE DAY WILL LEAD TO INCREASED DIVERGENCE OVER
THE LAKE WHICH WILL WORK TO BREAK UP THE LOWER CLOUDS THAT DROP SSW
OVER THE LAKE. THE COMPETING SIGNALS MAKE THE CLOUD FCST IN CNTRL
UPPER MI QUITE UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW...FCST REFLECTS SOME WESTWARD
EXPANSION OF CLOUDS IN CNTRL UPPER MI THIS MORNING FROM WHAT IS
CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAX TEMPS SHOULD
BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BUT PROBABLY A LITTLE COOLER AT SOME
LOCATIONS OVER THE E DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER
THE AREA. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR W TO PARTLY CLOUDY EAST...PERHAPS
MOSTLY CLOUDY FAR EAST. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO WHAT
IS BEING OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER
WILL OBVIOUSLY PLAY A ROLE IN MIN TEMPS OVER THE E TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015
MODELS STILL SHOWING POOR AGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY
WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY POSSIBLY SHIFTING THROUGH OR NEAR THE REGION
TUE INTO THU. THE 00Z/29 IS SHOWING THE MOST PRECIP AS A RESULT OF
SHOWING STRONGER ENERGY MORE DIRECTLY IMPACT THE CWA. HOWEVER...THE
GFS STILL ONLY SHOWS LESS THAN 0.05 INCHES OF RAIN TUE
EVENING...0.01-0.02 INCHES WED AFTERNOON...AND UP TO 0.15 INCHES
OVER THE FAR E LATE WED. LITTLE TO NO QPF SEEN FROM OTHER
MODELS...SO THE GFS IS MORE OF AN OUTLIER. THAT COMBINED WITH THE
FACT THAT THE LACK OF PRECIP HAS BEEN PERSISTENT LATELY...WILL NOT
INCLUDE PRECIP IN THE FORECAST. OF COURSE...THE STRENGTH AND TRACK
OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPS DUE TO BOTH
AIRMASS TEMPS AND A PRECIP/CLOUD COVER. TUE WILL BE WARMER THAN WED
AND THU AS MODELS DO AT LEAST AGREE THAT THE AIRMASS WILL BE COOLER
ON WED AND THU...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECIP/EXACT TEMPS FRI THROUGH SUN AS
WELL WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON FRI BEING BROKEN DOWN BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY/TROUGHING MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA. THE 12Z/26 ECMWF SHOWS
LESS THAN 0.05 INCHES OF QPF ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT ON FRI INTO FRI
NIGHT...BUT OTHER MODELS DO NOT SUPPORT THIS IDEA. GENERAL IDEA IS
THAT SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETAKE CONTROL ON SAT...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. PRECIP CHANCES ARE HIGHER ON SUN AS THE ECMWF
BRINGS A WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW. THE
AIRMASS DEFINITELY BECOMES WARMER INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT HOW MUCH
AND WHEN THE WARMEST CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED IS CLOUDED BY MODEL
DISAGREEMENT/VARIABILITY. COULD SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S OVER THE
W HALF ON ONE OR TWO DAYS FRI THROUGH SUN...PROBABLY OCCURING ON SAT
IF IT DOES END UP BEING DRY/SUNNY AS CURRENTLY SHOWN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD WITH DAYTIME LAKE
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS DOMINATING WINDS AND WIND DIRECTIONS. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015
WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING S THRU WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY...WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTEST OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...MOSTLY UNDER 10KT. OVER
THE E...WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO NEAR 20KT. AS THE RIDGE
DRIFTS E A BIT TONIGHT...WINDS WILL FALL OFF TO MOSTLY UNDER 10KT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE. ON TUE...WINDS WILL BE UNDER 15KT AS THE
RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A WEAK LOW PRES TROF THAT PASSES TUE NIGHT. IN
ITS WAKE...ANOTHER HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE S FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WED/THU. AS THE HIGH BEGINS RIDGING S INTO THE
UPPER LAKES WED...WINDS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY GUST TO
NEAR 20KT ONCE AGAIN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER THE W. WITH WEAK
PRES GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER LAKES THU/FRI...WIND SHOULD BE MOSTLY
UNDER 15KT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1247 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015
.AVIATION...
EXISTING EXTENSIVE MVFR DIURNAL CLOUD FIELD WILL GRADUALLY LIFT INTO
VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH WITH TIME
THROUGH THE EVENING PERIOD AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES. A NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WIND FIELD MAY DRAW ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT. THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL POCKETS OF VFR CLOUDS. THERE
IS AT LEAST A LOW POTENTIAL FOR CEILINGS TO DIP BELOW 3K FT
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE INVERSION LEVEL DROPS...PARTICULARLY AT
PTK/FNT.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...LOW THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 322 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
EARLY MORNING US/CANADIAN RADAR COMPOSITE LOOP HAS BEEN SHOWING A
REGION OF SHOWERS ADVANCING ACROSS LAKE HURON AND THE THUMB. THESE
SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A COMPACT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOW
DROPPING INTO LAKE HURON FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE MAIN RIBBON OF
LARGE SCALE ASCENT VIA GOOD DCVA WILL PRECEDE THE WAVE...WHICH IS
FORECAST TO ROTATE ACROSS SE MI DURING THE COURSE OF THE MORNING.
THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL COLD POOL AND RESULTANT STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE THUMB AND POINTS EAST THIS
MORNING. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE POOL OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.
THUS THE GREATER COVERAGE OF EARLY MORNING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE THUMB INTO THE NORTHEASTERN DETROIT SUBURBS...WITH
COVERAGE DECREASING TO THE WEST. ANY HIGHER INTENSITY RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING WILL BE VERY BRIEF...SO OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO ONLY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS.
A MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE BUBBLE WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS SE MI THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORT WAVE. THE CORRESPONDING MID
LEVEL WARMING WILL REDUCE THE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTHS
SUBSTANTIALLY AND SUPPORTS THE CURRENT DRY FORECAST. SE MI WILL
REMAIN ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A BROAD REGION OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW EXTENDING ALL THE WAY TO NEW ENGLAND. UPSTREAM SATELLITE AND
SFC OBSERVATIONS TO THE NORTHEAST OF LAKE HURON SUGGEST AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY...WHICH WILL EVOLVE INTO A
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE STRATO CU FIELD UNDER THE MID LEVEL INVERSION THIS
AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...NAM AND RAP SOUNDINGS
STILL SUGGEST STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RISING MIXING
DEPTHS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S.
NORTHERLY WINDS OFF LAKE HURON WILL AGAIN KEEP THE SHORELINE LOCALS
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER.
LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL EASE ITS GRIP ON SE MI TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES INTO LOWER MI FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE /ALBEIT MUCH WEAKER/ WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS ERN
LOWER MI TONIGHT WITHIN THE PERSISTENT MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW.
THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY JUST LEAD TO SOME PERIODIC MID CLOUDS.
MODEL RH PROGS DO HOWEVER SUGGEST THE EROSION OF THE DIURNALLY
ENHANCED CU FIELD WILL TAKE WELL INTO THE NIGHT...LIKELY A RESULT
OF THE PERSISTENT INVERSION. THESE FACTORS WILL SUPPORT LEANING ON
THE HIGH END OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS /RANGING FROM THE MID
30S IN THE THUMB TO LOW 40S IN METRO DETROIT/.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
A MORE COMFORTABLE STRETCH OF SPRING WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH PREDOMINATELY DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING
TEMEPRATURES.
PERSISTENT STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD LET UP BRIEFLY AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD TUESDAY WITH TWO GOOD SURGES OF SUBSIDENCE AND A FAIRLY RAPID
LOSS IN DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS LOSS IN LOW CLOUD SHOULD ONLY BE
TEMPRORARY AS A GOOD SIGNAL EXISTS THAT LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE
WILL THEN BLOSSOM INTO A FAIRLY ROBUST DIURNAL CU RESPONSE. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE
60...ALTHOUGH AREAS HUGGING THE LAKESHORE WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER.
MUDDY MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND LACK OF FLOW IN THE COLUMN WILL
LEAD TO PERSISTENCE FOR WEDNESDAY. THE LOW LEVELS ARE FORECASTED TO
BE MARGINALLY DRIER WHILE THERE IS SOME SIGNAL FOR SOME MIDLEVEL
MOISTURE TO POOL OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE.
STILL EXPECTING SOME MIDCLOUD...BUT BETTER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 60S ON WEDNESDAY.
MODEL DATA IS AGGRESIVE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY/VORTICITY MAXIMUM
DROPPING STRAIGHT SOUTHWARD INTO THE LAKE MICHIGAN VICINITY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE BOOK HASNT BEEN WRITTEN YET ON
SPECIFICS WITH MODELS TRENDING WESTERLY WITH THE QPF AXIS.
REGARDLESS...FAIRLY ROBUST SHORTWAVE AND INBOUND TRAJECTORY OF AIR
PARCELS SUPPORT AN INCREASINGLY GOOD POTENTIAL FOR A COOL DOWN AND
RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. BUMPED POPS UPWARD FROM
THE OFFERED GRIDDED GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY COULD STRUGGLE
TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA.
MARINE...
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME TODAY AS THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH
AXIS SWINGS SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE STATE. A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE STATE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. THIS
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO YIELD A RUN OF WEAK WINDS OVER
THE MARINE AREAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A NEXT SURGE IN NORTHERLY
WINDS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK
SURFACE LOW OR TROUGH AXIS.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ421-
441>443.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...SC
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
228 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015
.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON CONTINUING RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
THROUGH 19Z... THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRANSITION EASTWARD
ACROSS WRN N TX... AS THE H5 LOW CONTINUES TO CHURN ITS WAY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. EVIDENT ON WV... DECENT DIFFLUENCE IS NOTED
ACROSS NRN TX INTO THE ARKLATEX... WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER S CENTRAL/SERN OK. RAIN CONTINUES TO
LIFT SLOWLY N/NE OUT OF SWRN OK/WRN N TX... WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND
EXTENDING FROM WEST CENTRAL OK INTO NRN TX ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE SFC TROUGH/WARM FRONT. ALTHOUGH RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS SWRN
OK/WRN N TX FOR THE MEANTIME... EXPECT LIGHT RAIN/SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO BUILD BACK IN LATTER TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST. THE HRRR HAS DONE A DECENT JOB WITH THE OVERALL EVOLUTION...
AND COMPARED TO THE VARIOUS FLAVORS OF WRF ONE CAN CHOOSE FROM...
TIMING FOR A RETURN TO SHOWERS ACROSS WRN N TX AND SWRN OK WOULD BE
SOMEWHERE AROUND MIDNIGHT. DISCLAIMER... ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
TONIGHT ACROSS SAID AREA WILL NOT HAVE THE SUBSTANCE OF EARLIER
TODAY... THEREFORE... HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
OVERALL... EXPECT MOST OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
THROUGH 00Z... SO WILL KEEP THE REMAINING AREAS OF THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH INTACT THROUGH 28/00Z. TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... REMAINING
PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL OK WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION S/SE AS THE H5 LOW
TRACKS ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND THE WARM FRONT DRIFTS BACK
SOUTH. FROM 28/00Z (7 PM CDT) THROUGH NOON TUE... ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL ONLY RANGE FROM A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO NEAR A HALF
INCH... WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION FROM
CENTRAL OK THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL/SERN OK.
BEYOND TUESDAY... QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AS BROAD SFC HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS THE LENGTH OF THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGH THU. TEMPS
WILL SLOWLY WARM UP EACH DAY... NEARING NORMAL BY FRI... WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S... PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND. LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT OVERALL AGREEMENT THROUGH SUN... WITH A
BROAD RIDGE EXTENDED ACROSS THE LENGTH OF THE SRN CONUS. IT IS WELL
IN THE FUTURE... BUT PRECIP CHANCES LOOK POSSIBLE TO RETURN BY MON
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN OFF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
JTK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 47 64 45 71 / 80 30 10 10
HOBART OK 44 64 43 71 / 70 20 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 47 63 44 72 / 60 30 10 10
GAGE OK 39 65 41 72 / 100 20 0 10
PONCA CITY OK 44 67 45 72 / 80 20 10 10
DURANT OK 49 61 45 71 / 70 40 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-009>011-
014>019-021>025-027>031-038>042-046.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
556 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
EARLY TONIGHT. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LATE THIS WEEK A SLOW MOVING
UPPER LOW WILL BRING A RETURN OF COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A SPRAWLING UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL PUSH AN
EAST-WEST TROUGH SOUTH ACROSS PA TODAY.
COLD AIR ALOFT WITH MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
HELP TO SPARK SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS
ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO GROW INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE
DROPPING OFF RAPIDLY AFTER ABOUT 22-23Z.
A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTH
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS...HOWEVER
LOW CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO
MIX OUT...WITH IMPROVEMENT LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL TUESDAY
MORNING.
LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE.
DESPITE THE RECENT SPELL OF CHILLY WEATHER...AVERAGE TEMPS FOR
THE MONTH ARE STILL RUNNING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL AT MANY LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS AND THE APPROACH OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL BRING A FEW DAYS OF DRY AND NOTICEABLY MILDER
CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WED.
TUESDAY WILL START OFF CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...MAINLY THE
NORTH...BEFORE INCREASINGLY SUNNY CONDITIONS DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
LATE APRIL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN APPEARS CONSISTENT WITH AT LEAST
THE LAST TWO DAYS. BLOCKY/AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEK
THEN BECOME MORE ZONAL DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
A SLOW MOVING SRN STREAM UPPER LOW WILL EMERGE INTO THE SERN TO
MID ATLC STATES DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. A DISTINCT AND RATHER
POTENT SHOT OF NRN STREAM UPPER ENERGY...IN THE FORM OF A CLOSED
LOW DROPPING SSE FROM THE UPPER GLAKES REGION...SHOULD CAPTURE
THE SFC LOW /PROGGED BY MOST 00Z-06Z MODEL AND ENS GUIDANCE TO BE
NEAR THE OUTER BANKS OF NC THURSDAY MORNING/.
PHASING OF THESE FEATURES WILL COINCIDE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
HIGHLY ANOMALOUS EAST-NERLY FLOW IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER LATE
THUR INTO FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND ERN PENN. PWATS IN EXCESS OF
OVER 1 INCH NEAR THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ COAST WILL BE TRANSPORTED
NWWD UP/OVER THE SHALLOW COLD AIR ENTRENCHED ACROSS CENTRAL PENN
AND THE SUSQ VALLEY. THUS CONTINUED THE HIEST POPS DURING THE
PERIOD FOR WED NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. GIVEN THE BLOCKY NATURE OF
THE PATTERN...WES RELUCTANT IN CLEARING OUR PCPN TOO FAST FRIDAY
MORNING.
COOL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER
LOW. WITH RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE WEEKEND...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND
TO NEAR AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE LOOKS TO BRING SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPS BACK FOR NEXT
TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HAD A SHOWER AT THE OFFICE AT 4 PM...WITH SOME SMALL HAIL.
SHOWERS SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF AS THE SUN SETS...AND THE
UPPER LVL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROP SE.
MAIN CHANGE EARLY ON WAS TO HOLD ONTO THE WIND AND SHOWERS
FOR AN EXTRA HOUR OR SO.
THE OTHER CHANGE WAS TO UP THE WINDS SOME ON TUE...AND EARLIER.
THIS BASED ON THE GRADIENT...TIME OF SUNRISE...AND RATHER COLD
AIR ALOFT.
21Z TAFS SENT.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE WITH PASSING SHOWERS. STRATO-CU
CEILINGS IN THE 3000-6000` RANGE ARE COVERING THE REMAINDER OF
THE FLYING AREA.
WINDS FROM 290-320 WILL GUST UP TO 20KTS AT TIMES THIS AFTN.
LOOK FOR SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING WITH MVFR
CEILINGS LIKELY LINGERING INTO TUESDAY MORNING OVER WESTERN AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH A
TENDENCY FOR CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY.
OUTLOOK...
WED...NO SIG WX.
THU-FRI...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
SAT...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
358 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
EARLY TONIGHT. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LATE THIS WEEK A SLOW MOVING
UPPER LOW WILL BRING A RETURN OF COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A SPRAWLING UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL PUSH AN
EAST-WEST TROUGH SOUTH ACROSS PA TODAY.
COLD AIR ALOFT WITH MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
HELP TO SPARK SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS
ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO GROW INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE
DROPPING OFF RAPIDLY AFTER ABOUT 22-23Z.
A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTH
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS...HOWEVER
LOW CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO
MIX OUT...WITH IMPROVEMENT LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL TUESDAY
MORNING.
LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE.
DESPITE THE RECENT SPELL OF CHILLY WEATHER...AVERAGE TEMPS FOR
THE MONTH ARE STILL RUNNING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL AT MANY LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS AND THE APPROACH OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL BRING A FEW DAYS OF DRY AND NOTICEABLY MILDER
CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WED.
TUESDAY WILL START OFF CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...MAINLY THE
NORTH...BEFORE INCREASINGLY SUNNY CONDITIONS DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
LATE APRIL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN APPEARS CONSISTENT WITH AT LEAST
THE LAST TWO DAYS. BLOCKY/AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEK
THEN BECOME MORE ZONAL DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
A SLOW MOVING SRN STREAM UPPER LOW WILL EMERGE INTO THE SERN TO
MID ATLC STATES DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. A DISTINCT AND RATHER
POTENT SHOT OF NRN STREAM UPPER ENERGY...IN THE FORM OF A CLOSED
LOW DROPPING SSE FROM THE UPPER GLAKES REGION...SHOULD CAPTURE
THE SFC LOW /PROGGED BY MOST 00Z-06Z MODEL AND ENS GUIDANCE TO BE
NEAR THE OUTER BANKS OF NC THURSDAY MORNING/.
PHASING OF THESE FEATURES WILL COINCIDE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
HIGHLY ANOMALOUS EAST-NERLY FLOW IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER LATE
THUR INTO FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND ERN PENN. PWATS IN EXCESS OF
OVER 1 INCH NEAR THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ COAST WILL BE TRANSPORTED
NWWD UP/OVER THE SHALLOW COLD AIR ENTRENCHED ACROSS CENTRAL PENN
AND THE SUSQ VALLEY. THUS CONTINUED THE HIEST POPS DURING THE
PERIOD FOR WED NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. GIVEN THE BLOCKY NATURE OF
THE PATTERN...WES RELUCTANT IN CLEARING OUR PCPN TOO FAST FRIDAY
MORNING.
COOL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER
LOW. WITH RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE WEEKEND...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND
TO NEAR AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE LOOKS TO BRING SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPS BACK FOR NEXT
TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE WITH PASSING SHOWERS. STRATO-CU
CEILINGS IN THE 3000-6000` RANGE ARE COVERING THE REMAINDER OF
THE FLYING AREA.
WINDS FROM 290-320 WILL GUST UP TO 20KTS AT TIMES THIS AFTN.
LOOK FOR SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING WITH MVFR
CEILINGS LIKELY LINGERING INTO TUESDAY MORNING OVER WESTERN AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH A
TENDENCY FOR CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...MVFR CIGS WEST IMPROVING TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.
WED...NO SIG WX.
THU-FRI...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
SAT...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
113 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
EARLY TONIGHT. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LATE THIS WEEK A SLOW MOVING
UPPER LOW WILL BRING A RETURN OF COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SPRAWLING UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL PUSH AN
EAST-WEST TROUGH SOUTH ACROSS PA TODAY.
COLD AIR ALOFT WITH MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
HELP TO SPARK SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS
ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO GROW INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE
DROPPING OFF RAPIDLY AFTER ABOUT 22-23Z.
A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTH
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS...HOWEVER
LOW CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO
MIX OUT...WITH IMPROVEMENT LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL TUESDAY
MORNING.
LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE.
DESPITE THE RECENT SPELL OF CHILLY WEATHER...AVERAGE TEMPS FOR
THE MONTH ARE STILL RUNNING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL AT MANY LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS AND THE APPROACH OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL BRING A FEW DAYS OF DRY AND NOTICEABLY MILDER
CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WED.
TUESDAY WILL START OFF CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...MAINLY THE
NORTH...BEFORE INCREASINGLY SUNNY CONDITIONS DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
LATE APRIL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING SRN STREAM UPPER LOW WILL EMERGE INTO THE SERN TO
MID ATLC STATES DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. A DISTINCT AND RATHER
POTENT SHOT OF UPPER ENERGY...IN THE FORM OF A CLOSED LOW
DROPPING SSE FROM THE UPPER GLAKES REGION SHOULD CAPTURE THE SFC
LOW /PROGGED BY MOST 00Z-06Z MODEL AND ENS GUIDANCE TO BE NEAR THE
OUTER BANKS OF NC THURSDAY MORNING/.
PHASING OF THESE FEATURES WILL COINCIDE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
HIGHLY ANOMALOUS EAST-NERLY FLOW IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER LATE
THUR INTO FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND ERN PENN.
PWATS IN EXCESS OF OVER 1 INCH NEAR THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ COAST
WILL BE TRANSPORTED NWWD UP/OVER THE SHALLOW COLD AIR ENTRENCHED
ACROSS CENTRAL PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY.
COORDINATED WITH SURROUNDING WFOS TO BOOST POPS /AND THE
NORTHEAST TO NORTHERLY WIND/ FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
WE EVEN SPECKLED IN SOME WET SNOW MIXING IN LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE LAURELS AOA 2400 FT MSL.
THE MUCH COOLER GFS/GEFS TEMPS APPEAR MORE REALISTIC AT THIS
POINT AS CLOUDS THICKEN.../AS RAIN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION
FORM THE SOUTH AND WEST/ AND FALLS THROUGH THE WEDGE OF RELATIVELY
DRIER/COOLER AIR NEAR THE SFC.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE WITH PASSING SHOWERS. STRATO-CU
CEILINGS IN THE 3000-6000` RANGE ARE COVERING THE REMAINDER OF
THE FLYING AREA.
WINDS FROM 290-320 WILL GUST UP TO 20KTS AT TIMES THIS AFTN.
LOOK FOR SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING WITH MVFR
CEILINGS LIKELY LINGERING INTO TUESDAY MORNING OVER WESTERN AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH A
TENDENCY FOR CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...MVFR CIGS WEST IMPROVING TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.
WED...NO SIG WX.
THU-FRI...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
SAT...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
116 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015
.AVIATION...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE 18Z SOUTHEAST TEXAS TAFS CENTER
AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... AND
THEN INCREASING WINDS/ LOWERED CIGS WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CEILINGS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION... WITH SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING FROM NEAR LBX
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. ANTICIPATE COVERAGE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING. GIVEN ANTICIPATED ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED NATURE OF ACTIVITY... WILL ADVERTISE VCTS MENTION AT ALL
TERMINALS AND HANDLE TSRA IMPACTS AT TERMINALS WITH AMENDMENTS.
AMPLE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE TODAY RAISE CONCERNS FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE
TERMINALS /HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD BETWEEN 21 AND 03Z/... WITH ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE FROM MORE ROBUST ACTIVITY.
AS AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EJECTS TOWARDS THE GULF COAST
STATES LATER TONIGHT... IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
TERMINALS TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS
/WITH STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE/ IN ITS WAKE ON TUESDAY MORNING.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO REACH THE HOUSTON TERMINALS AROUND 03Z...
CLEARING THE COASTAL SITES BETWEEN 06 AND 09Z. A PERIOD OF MVFR
TO EVEN IFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT...
BEFORE IMPROVING TOWARDS/AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
HUFFMAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/
UPDATE...
SOME ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...AN NWS STORM SURVEY IS ENROUTE TO
THE GRIMES COUNTY AREA TO ASSESS DAMAGE. WE WILL UPDATE WITH
INFORMATION AS WE RECEIVE IT FROM THE ASSESSMENT.
PEAK WINDS MEASURED LAST NIGHT
CONROE ASOS 62 MPH AT 435 AM
8SE OF NAVASOTA 55 MPH AT 412 AM
HUNTSVILLE ASOS 54 MPH AT 452 AM
1N OF WALLER 50 MPH AT 422 AM
BRENHAM AWOS 49 MPH AT 335 AM
45
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/
UPDATE...
THE AREA HAS BEEN STABILIZED FOR THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE PARED
BACK THE RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING...BUT...THIS AFTERNOON IS A
VERY DIFFERENT STORY. A SQUALL LINE THAT RACED THROUGH THE REGION
KNOCKING DOWN TREES IS WELL INTO LA WITH SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CWA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY (WITH A SMALL CLUSTER OF
STORMS) IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS DOWN TO
63-67 OVER SETX. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM
THE NEARSHORE WATERS UP THROUGH MATAGORDA BAY TO GIDDINGS TO JUST
WEST OF FORT WORTH. WATER VAPOR/UA CLEARLY SHOWS A DRYING TREND
ALOFT WITH STRONG SW FLOW OF 50+ KNOTS AT 500MB AND 80+ KNOTS AT
300MB. AS WE HEAT UP AND THE UPPER LOW NEAR WICHITA FALLS
CONTINUES TO TREK EAST THIS SHOULD PLACE SETX IN A FAVORABLE
REGION FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT...LL
CONVERGENCE AND A RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE. SB CAPE
VALUES SOAR TO 3500-4500 J/KG OVER THE NORTH WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR ALOFT AND LOW LEVELS ONLY SOMEWHAT SHEARED
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED
TORNADOES...THOUGH PROBABLY A LOWER THREAT FOR TORNADOES BUT THAT
IS A LOT OF CAPE IF WE CAN REACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK. THE STORMS
SHOULD SWING EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ENDING THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER. SPC HAS KEPT THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK. HEAVY
RAIN THREAT POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. COLD
FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE HOUSTON AREA AFTER 2 AM WITH MODERATE
COLD ADVECTION. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY.
45
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 717 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/
AVIATION...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS LOW DUE TO THE VARIABILITY IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS. THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL AGREED WITH THE GLOBAL
MODELS IN MOVING THE CURRENT CONVECTION EAST OF THE AREA WHILE
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE UPPER LOW IN NM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
FOR THIS MORNING...DO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FROM KIAH NORTHWARD.
THE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FROM KHOU TO THE COAST SHOULD IMPROVE
BY THE MID MORNING PERIOD. WILL ADD THE MENTION OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE WAS FORECASTING LOW CEILINGS...RAW MODEL OUTPUT
SUGGESTED BEST CHANCES WILL BE MORE TOWARD THE COAST. AT LEAST
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM KHOU TO THE COAST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AT LEAST MOVE THROUGH KCLL
AND KUTS BY AROUND 08Z...AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH KCXO AND KIAH BY
12Z.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 60 67 49 72 53 / 40 20 10 0 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 63 70 49 74 54 / 40 20 10 0 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 69 73 56 71 63 / 20 10 10 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$