Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/26/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
900 PM MST SAT APR 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
OCCUR SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THEREAFTER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED ISOLATED 35-45 DBZ ECHOES ACROSS
FAR WRN PIMA COUNTY NE OF AJO AT 0355Z. SCATTERED MOSTLY LESS THAN
30 DBZ ECHOES EXTENDED FROM TUCSON NWD ACROSS SERN PINAL/FAR WRN
GRAHAM COUNTIES. CELL MOVEMENT WAS GENERALLY TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND
20 KTS.
A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE SWRN CONUS INTO THE
PACIFIC NW THIS EVENING. A 554 DM LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS PROGGED VIA
THE 26/00Z NAM AND 26/18Z GFS TO BE OVER NERN ARIZONA AROUND
DAYBREAK SUN. HAVE NOTED THAT THE 26/00Z NAM INCREASED POPS FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIALLY FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON NWD...
VERSUS PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS. HAVE ALSO NOTED THAT SEVERAL RUC HRRR
SOLUTIONS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED HIGHER WITH PROGGED LIQUID RAIN
AMOUNTS THRU 12Z-15Z SUNDAY. ACCORDING TO THE 26/02Z HRRR...THE
TIMING FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL FOR THE
TUCSON METRO AREA WILL OCCUR FROM 05Z-12Z SUNDAY OR SO.
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS THE MOST RECENT RUC/NAM SOLUTIONS...
HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY FROM
TUCSON NWD ACROSS SERN PINAL/WRN GRAHAM COUNTIES. HAVE ALSO ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THE REST OF
TONIGHT. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY SHOULD OCCUR NE OF
TUCSON...OR ACROSS NRN GREENLEE/GRAHAM COUNTIES. HAVE ALSO ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING.
AT THIS TIME...APPEARS THAT SNOW LEVELS BY MIDDAY SUN WILL BE AROUND
7000 FEET ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 8000 FEET ACROSS THE
CATALINA/RINCON MOUNTAINS NEAR TUCSON. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ABOVE
7000 FEET...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET ACROSS THE
CATALINA/RINCON MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE GALIURO/PINALENO MOUNTAINS
IN GRAHAM COUNTY. GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR
MOST LOCATIONS THE REST OF TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY. COOLER TEMPS WILL OCCUR SUN AS THE UPPER LOW
BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY OVER NRN NEW MEXICO.
PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 27/06Z.
EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS -SHRA ALONG WITH ISOLATED -TSRA THRU
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE NORTH
OF A SAN SIMON-KTUS-SELLS LINE. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN NE OF KTUS TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED -SHRA SUNDAY EVENING SHOULD BE CONFINED FROM VICINITY
OF KSAD TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS INTO MIDDAY SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE AT
6-10K FT AGL. GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES WILL THEN OCCUR FROM WEST-TO-
EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING.
SURFACE WIND THE REST OF TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE WLY/SWLY AT
10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS. SURFACE WIND SUNDAY WILL BE
WLY/NWLY AT 12-25 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS. THE STRONGEST WIND IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. SURFACE WIND WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS MOST SECTIONS TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD...OR 27/06Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTH OF THE
AREA WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS
NORTH OF TUCSON. A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THEREAFTER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
EXPECT GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. GUSTY EAST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR TUESDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY BUT THE TAIL END OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL LINGER BACK ACROSS PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A
SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT IS ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS TO BE RIGHT
ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY RESULTING IN LINGERING
ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...BUT DRY
ELSEWHERE.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM RIDGING WILL NOSE IN ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND THE GREAT BASIN LATE TUESDAY AND OVER ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. BEYOND THURSDAY MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT
DISCREPANCIES...SO DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...
ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE A DRY FORECAST IS IN STORE
REGARDLESS OF THE UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE MODELS.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
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FRANCIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
1000 AM MST FRI APR 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF PACIFIC WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL SLOWLY
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND THIS WEEKEND...PROVIDING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA
MOUNTAINS TODAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. A STRONG COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA SATURDAY NIGHT.
CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED BY LATER SUNDAY WITH DRY AND MUCH
WARMER WEATHER NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS OVER ARIZONA THIS MORNING EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA MEXICO. THE MAIN VORT MAX WITHIN
THE TROUGH IS ALREADY OVER NEW MEXICO. A WEAKER TRAILING VORT MAX
HAS BEEN HELPING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
MARICOPA...PINAL...AND GILA COUNTIES. CAPE LOOKS QUITE MODEST BUT
JUST ENOUGH TO GET SOME STRAY SHOWERS THAT HAVE HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH
THEM THAN THE OTHERS. COULD POSSIBLY GET A DEEP ENOUGH SHOWER TO GET
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. EVEN IN THAT SCENARIO...NOT LOOKING AT ANY
FLOODING ISSUES AS IT WOULD BE VERY LOCALIZED AND BRIEF. HRRR KEEPS
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON WHILE OTHER HI RES
MODELS TREND THINGS DOWN QUICKLY AFTER MIDDAY. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO KEEP POPS GOING PAST 18Z TODAY. NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS
ENTERING OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE MAIN
DYNAMICAL PUSH HAPPENING BETWEEN 00Z-18Z SUNDAY. MORE LATER.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 305 AM MST/PDT...
TODAY...
A BROAD COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL ARIZONA EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE WEST. 00Z PLOT DATA...
5PM LAST EVENING DETECTED A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE 7000 FEET DEEP SPREADING ACROSS THE COLORADO RIVER FROM
SOUTHERN CA. THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RELATIVE TO
TEMPS ALOFT...AND WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS AZ TODAY.
AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVED INTO AZ OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED IN FAR SOUTHEAST AZ JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT...
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN MARICOPA COUNTY JUST
NORTH OF PHOENIX AT 2 AM. CURRENT FORECASTS HANG ON TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE FRIDAY MORNING HOURS...WITH THE SHOWER
THREAT ENDING IN ALL BUT SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ZONE 24 BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE TOO STABLE TO GENERATE ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. THEREFORE PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AREA-WIDE.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...
A POWERFUL NEGATIVE TILT TROF IS STILL FORECAST TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN
INTO CENTRAL AZ SATURDAY NIGHT. IN FACT... THE STRONGEST VERTICAL
MOTION FIELD...REPLETE WITH POSSIBLE HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BECOME FOCUSED BETWEEN PRESCOTT AND QUARTZSITE BY 9 PM
SATURDAY...OR IN LA PAZ AND NORTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTIES...THEN
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA BY 2 AM SATURDAY NIGHT. SINCE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE RELATIVELY DEEP...THIS CLASSIC FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN A LINE OF SHWRS/TSTMS WITH POTENTIAL
FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WIND. PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CA IN
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS/SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
BE CONFINED TO ARIZONA.
THE COLD FRONT BY 7 AM SUNDAY SHOULD HAVE MOVED TO THE EASTERN AZ
BORDER RESULTING IN LINGERING SHOWERS OR UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY PHOENIX EASTWARD.
CLEARING SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A
BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR 100 DEGREE HEAT ON THE
WARMEST DESERTS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. KIWA/KSDL THE MOST LIKELY TO
SEE SHOWERS AT THE AIRFIELD WHILE KPHX MAY ONLY SEE VCSH BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS. WIDESPREAD CIGS AROUND 6KFT WILL BE COMMON THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS FROM FRIDAY MORNING ONWARD. PASSING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ELEVATED WINDS...WITH GUSTS INTO TO 20KT RANGE
PSBL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STRONGER WINDS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY...WITH GUSTS PUSHING 35KTS PARTICULARLY ACROSS IMPERIAL
COUNTY AND KIPL.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
FINAL PIECE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWIFTLY MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION SUNDAY...SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS. DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY DRY IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COOL
FRONT...BUT CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY BE OFFSET OF
THE STRONGEST WINDS AND EVEN THEN ONLY DRY INTO THE 20 PERCENT RANGE
OR SO ON SUNDAY. THE MAIN TROUGH FEATURE WILL CLEAR THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY...WITH RESIDUAL WEAK TROUGH HEIGHTS LINGERING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION WHILE
TEMPERATURES WARM TO MORE SEASONAL...AND EVEN ABOVE
SEASONAL...READINGS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SINGLE DIGIT AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. WINDS FROM MONDAY ONWARD
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND WILL FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ030>033.
&&
$$
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DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/LEINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
850 AM MST FRI APR 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY...RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
FROM TUCSON WEST AND NORTH. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AREA-WIDE ON
SATURDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO START THE
WORK WEEK...ALONG WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AS UPPER
LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST HRRR RUNS INDICATE THAT
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND MAINLY FROM TUCSON WEST AND NORTH
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING
TIME FRAME TO ADD ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY FROM TUCSON WEST AND
NORTH...AND WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK AT NEW MODEL DATA FOR THE
AFTERNOON PART OF THE TODAYS FORECAST SHORTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/18Z. SCT-BKN CLOUD DECKS 5-8 KFT AGL
PRIMARILY NW OF KFHU-KCLT LINE WITH ISOLATED -SHRA/TS THROUGH
25/03Z. LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS...THEN SWLY TO WLY WINDS OF 12-
20 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS SOUTH AND EAST OF KTUS. CLEARING SKIES ALONG
WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL WINDS DEVELOPING AFTER 25/03Z. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED SHOWERS...POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...FROM
TUCSON WEST AND NORTH TODAY. IN ADDITION...BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 35 MPH WILL DEVELOP
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR SOUTH AND EAST
OF TUCSON. ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
THEREAFTER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION WHICH
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ELEVATED WINDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS RETURNING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
A SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED STARTING MONDAY...WITH
CURRENT INDICATIONS POINTING TO HIGH TEMPERATURES INCREASING TO 6-12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS RENO NV
1025 PM PDT THU APR 23 2015
.UPDATE...
A QUICK FORECAST UPDATE WILL BE SENT SHORTLY TO INCREASE POPS
NORTH OF I-80, AND EXTEND THUNDER INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN CA LATER
INTO THE NIGHT.
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH IMPRESSIVE LIGHTNING OUTPUT WHICH
DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY EARLIER THIS EVENING
CONTINUE TO MARCH EAST, WITH STEADY PRECIP SPREADING MAINLY FROM
CENTRAL PLUMAS COUNTY SOUTH TO THE TAHOE BASIN. ALTHOUGH THE
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, IT
APPEARS THAT SOME STRIKES SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN PLUMAS AND
SIERRA COUNTIES SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTH AND WEST SHORES OF THE
TAHOE BASIN. IN THESE AREAS WE EXTENDED MENTION OF THUNDER THRU 2
AM.
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE SPREAD RAIN FROM THIS CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER INTO WESTERN NV MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 THRU THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. IN THESE AREAS WE INCREASED SHOWER COVERAGE AND QPF VALUES,
WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.10 TO 0.25 INCH OVERNIGHT. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN TOTALS ARE LIKELY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 89 NORTH
OF TRUCKEE, WHERE LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 0.50 INCH ARE POSSIBLE. MJD
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 PM PDT THU APR 23 2015/
SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH POTENTIAL TRAVEL PROBLEMS IN THE SIERRA AND NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY AND
WARMER WEATHER.
SHORT TERM...
LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS/WEB CAMS INDICATE
THAT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN RATHER FLAT THIS AFTERNOON.
MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SO FAR HAS DEVELOPED WEST OF THE CREST
WITH RADAR INDICATING ISOLATED SHOWERS EAST OF THE SIERRA. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE ATTENTION TURNS TO DEVELOPING TROUGH ALONG THE WEST
COAST FRI-SAT AS MODELS HAVE TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY MORE AMPLIFIED.
12Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUED THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS FEW RUNS IN
DROPPING TROUGH SOUTHWARD WITH AXIS FARTHER WEST WHICH WOULD PUT
THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NV IN A BETTER POSITION FOR AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN. A LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY, WHICH WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN CA-NORTHERN NV WHERE IT WILL
STALL AND WEAKEN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR A BAND
OF SHOWERS TO WORK ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS, MAINLY NORTH OF I-80
WITH SOME QPF AMOUNTS APPROACHING A COUPLE TENTHS NEAR THE OREGON
BORDER VICINITY OF FRONT. OTHERWISE, SHOWERS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOCAL GUSTS
TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AND AREA LAKE WATERS WILL BE CHOPPY. THE
BREEZY WEST GRADIENT IS USUALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION
AND THUS WE REMOVED THUNDERSTORM WORDING DESPITE MODEL SOUNDING
INSTABILITY.
THE MAIN TROUGH DROPS SOUTHWARD FRI NIGHT AND PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SNOW
AND VALLEY RAIN ALONG WITH ANOTHER BREEZY DAY SATURDAY. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS AS MODELS STILL SHOW SOME
VARIATION IN THE AMPLITUDE AND RESULTANT SPEED OF SYSTEM AS IT
TRACKS THROUGH CA-NV. THE GFS/NAM ARE SLOWER OVERALL AND SHOW
1-1.5 INCHES OF QPF ALONG THE SIERRA WHICH WOULD AMOUNT TO 12-18
INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE HIGH SIERRA FROM THE TAHOE BASIN SOUTH INTO
MONO COUNTY, WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW AT LAKE LEVEL AND FOR
PASSES IN NORTHEAST CA. ON THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM IS THE
ECMWF WHICH STILL SHOWS A SIMILAR STORM TRACK ALTHOUGH FASTER AND
WITH QPF ON THE ORDER OF HALF AN INCH. ALL THREE MODELS CONTINUE
TO PICK UP ON A PWAT PLUME OF 1+ INCH WHICH GETS INGESTED INTO THE
SYSTEM AS IT WORKS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SIERRA. THIS WOULD TEND TO
FAVOR THE WETTER SOLUTIONS.
DUE TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN QPF, WE HAVE INTRODUCED A FORECAST IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD WHICH PUTS 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE
CREST AND A FEW INCHES DOWN TO ABOUT 5500 FEET. TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE
MOST LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. DIMINISHING
SNOW RATES AND HIGH SUN ANGLE SHOULD HELP MITIGATE ROAD IMPACTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS, SPILLOVER SHOULD BE
DECENT BUT WILL DEPEND ON SPEED OF SYSTEM.
A COOL AND DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND ACTUALLY STAYING BELOW NORMAL.
HOHMANN
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A MODERATE TO STRONG AMPLITUDE
RIDGE BUILDING IN EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS, MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARMING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
BY TUESDAY. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S FOR
WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS AND THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR THE SIERRA
VALLEYS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE RIDGE LOOKS TO FLATTEN SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS ENERGY
MOVES THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING SOME INCREASE
IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING ZEPHYR-LIKE BREEZES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
COOL DOWN BY THURSDAY (ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN CONSIDERABLY ABOVE
AVERAGE). SNYDER
AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS
EVENING, FOCUSED SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. LOCAL HIGHER TERRAIN
OBSCURATION IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AS WELL AS THUNDERSTORMS, WITH SMALL
HAIL AND OUTFLOW GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE IN ALL STORMS. NORTH OF
I-80, DRIER AIR HAS WORKED IN WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED.
FOR TONIGHT SOME SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP AFTER 11 PM (06Z FRIDAY) WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE, MAINLY NORTH OF I-80.
A WETTER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING IS STILL ON TRACK.
WIDESPREAD TERRAIN OBSCURATION FOR SIERRA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA
CAN BE EXPECTED, WITH SUB-LANDING MINIMUMS POSSIBLE FOR KTRK AND
LIKELY FOR KTVL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ALSO, MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE ON RUNWAYS FOR KTRK/KTVL. OUT INTO WESTERN NEVADA, RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR LOWER VALLEY TERMINALS WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS BEING
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURATION, PERIODIC MVFR CIGS AND LEE OF THE
SIERRA TURBULENCE. SNYDER
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PYRAMID
LAKE IN NVZ004.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR LAKE TAHOE
IN NVZ002.
CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR LAKE TAHOE
IN CAZ072.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
939 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 556 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015
FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO POP GRIDS AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE ACROSS THE WEST SLOPE. EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 2 AM...BEFORE DIMINISHING
IN AREAL COVERAGE AS WE PUSH TOWARD SUNRISE. HRRR AND NAM BOTH
LEANING TOWARD THIS SOLUTION. HOWEVER...ANOTHER ROUND STILL IN
STORE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER SUNDAY AS THE LOW PASSES
TO OUR SOUTH AND HEADS EAST TO ALBUQUERQUE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015
DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH 500 TO 1000J OF CAPE THIS AFTERNOON IS
PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO IN
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLOUD SHIELD CURRENTLY OVER
UTAH. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND
GUSTY WINDS. THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING. BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE REACHING CENTRAL UTAH AND THEN EASTERN
UTAH BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SPLITTING TROUGH FORMS A CLOSED LOW JUST
SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS BY MIDDAY SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW
AT MOUNTAINTOP LEVEL SUNDAY MORNING BECOMES EAST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE 700 MB LOW CONSOLIDATES ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER.
AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL AREAS AS THE
WRAPAROUND FLOW NORTH OF THE LOW ENCOUNTERS THE SPLIT TROUGH AXIS
PUSHING IN FROM UT. THIS COUPLET OF UPPER DIVERGENCE AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOULD AID PRECIPITATION. Q-G FIELDS
SHOW INCREASING SUBSIDENCE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT MOIST LOW LEVEL NORTH
TO NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD KEEP SOME SNOW GOING ON FAVORED SLOPES
SUNDAY NIGHT.
UPGRADED THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A LATE-SEASON IMPACTED-BASED
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000 FT BEGINNING AT
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR 5-10 INCHES OF SNOW. MOUNTAIN PASSES THE MOST
AFFECTED. ADDED THE ABAJO/LA SAL MTNS IN SE UT TO THE WARNING FOR
4-8 INCHES. ALSO PUT THE FLAT TOPS AND GORE/ELK MTNS IN A WINTER
ADVISORY ABOVE 9000 FEET. LIKELY TO SEE SNOW BELOW 9000 FEET AT
TIMES BUT ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACT WILL BE LESS.
COOLER AIR COULD PUSH LOW TEMPS DOWN NEAR FREEZING IN THE
CORTEZ AND DURANGO AREAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR A CONCERN TO ORCHARD
AND VINEYARDS IN THOSE AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT MOVING THE CLOSED SOUTHWEST LOW ACROSS NRN TX
AND OKLA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW
WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY
OVER THE WRN CO MTNS MONDAY AS DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKS IN FROM THE
WEST.
A POSITIVE-TILTED UPPER RIDGE PUSHES INTO THE GREAT BASIN TUE AND
OVERHEAD ON WED. THIS RIDGE THEN BECOMES THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE UNTIL FRI...WHEN A DEVELOPING WEST COAST TROUGH SHIFTS THE
RIDGE EASTWARD. A WARMING TREND WILL PUSH DAYTIME TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL
WED-FRI. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST...SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD PICK UP
THU AND FRI IN THE FAVORED AREAS OF ERN UT AND NW CO. LINGERING
MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER THE MTNS TUE-THU...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY. THE CHANCE
OF MTN SHOWERS BEGINS TO INCREASE FRI AND SAT AS THE WEST COAST
TROUGH DEVELOPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 934 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MVFR AND IFR RANGE AT MOST
TAF SITES THROUGH SUNDAY. A STRENGTHENING STORM CENTERED OVER
WESTERN AZ WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND
REACH NEW MEXICO BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL
OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH THIS PERIOD. EXPECT
SNOW LEVELS TO DROP AS LOW AS 7500 FEET AT TIMES. MOUNTAINS WILL
BE OBSCURED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE BRIEF OPEN VFR
WINDOWS BETWEEN WAVES OF RAIN AND SNOW.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ010-013.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ009-012-018-
019.
UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR UTZ028.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...JAM/JAD
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...CC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
559 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 556 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015
FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO POP GRIDS AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE ACROSS THE WEST SLOPE. EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 2 AM...BEFORE DIMINISHING
IN AREAL COVERAGE AS WE PUSH TOWARD SUNRISE. HRRR AND NAM BOTH
LEANING TOWARD THIS SOLUTION. HOWEVER...ANOTHER ROUND STILL IN
STORE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER SUNDAY AS THE LOW PASSES
TO OUR SOUTH AND HEADS EAST TO ALBUQUERQUE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015
DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH 500 TO 1000J OF CAPE THIS AFTERNOON IS
PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO IN
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLOUD SHIELD CURRENTLY OVER
UTAH. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND
GUSTY WINDS. THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING. BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE REACHING CENTRAL UTAH AND THEN EASTERN
UTAH BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SPLITTING TROUGH FORMS A CLOSED LOW JUST
SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS BY MIDDAY SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW
AT MOUNTAINTOP LEVEL SUNDAY MORNING BECOMES EAST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE 700 MB LOW CONSOLIDATES ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER.
AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL AREAS AS THE
WRAPAROUND FLOW NORTH OF THE LOW ENCOUNTERS THE SPLIT TROUGH AXIS
PUSHING IN FROM UT. THIS COUPLET OF UPPER DIVERGENCE AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOULD AID PRECIPITATION. Q-G FIELDS
SHOW INCREASING SUBSIDENCE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT MOIST LOW LEVEL NORTH
TO NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD KEEP SOME SNOW GOING ON FAVORED SLOPES
SUNDAY NIGHT.
UPGRADED THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A LATE-SEASON IMPACTED-BASED
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000 FT BEGINNING AT
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR 5-10 INCHES OF SNOW. MOUNTAIN PASSES THE MOST
AFFECTED. ADDED THE ABAJO/LA SAL MTNS IN SE UT TO THE WARNING FOR
4-8 INCHES. ALSO PUT THE FLAT TOPS AND GORE/ELK MTNS IN A WINTER
ADVISORY ABOVE 9000 FEET. LIKELY TO SEE SNOW BELOW 9000 FEET AT
TIMES BUT ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACT WILL BE LESS.
COOLER AIR COULD PUSH LOW TEMPS DOWN NEAR FREEZING IN THE
CORTEZ AND DURANGO AREAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR A CONCERN TO ORCHARD
AND VINEYARDS IN THOSE AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT MOVING THE CLOSED SOUTHWEST LOW ACROSS NRN TX
AND OKLA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW
WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY
OVER THE WRN CO MTNS MONDAY AS DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKS IN FROM THE
WEST.
A POSITIVE-TILTED UPPER RIDGE PUSHES INTO THE GREAT BASIN TUE AND
OVERHEAD ON WED. THIS RIDGE THEN BECOMES THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE UNTIL FRI...WHEN A DEVELOPING WEST COAST TROUGH SHIFTS THE
RIDGE EASTWARD. A WARMING TREND WILL PUSH DAYTIME TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL
WED-FRI. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST...SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD PICK UP
THU AND FRI IN THE FAVORED AREAS OF ERN UT AND NW CO. LINGERING
MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER THE MTNS TUE-THU...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY. THE CHANCE
OF MTN SHOWERS BEGINS TO INCREASE FRI AND SAT AS THE WEST COAST
TROUGH DEVELOPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 506 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO GAIN STRENGTH
OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...THEN LIFT EAST
ACROSS NEW MEXICO BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL
OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH THIS PERIOD. EXPECT
SNOW LEVELS TO DROP AS LOW AS 7500 FEET AT TIMES. MOUNTAINS WILL
BE OBSCURED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD IFR AND MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED WITH ALL TERMINAL SITES IMPACTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THERE
WILL BE OPEN VFR WINDOWS BETWEEN WAVES OF RAIN AND SNOW.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT MONDAY
FOR COZ010-013.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT MONDAY
FOR COZ009-012-018-019.
UT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY
FOR UTZ028.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...JAM/JAD
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...JDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
938 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST,
PASSING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD GRADUALLY INTO OUR REGION DURING THE
EARLY AND MIDDLE PARTS OF THE NEW WEEK. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND MOVE
OUT TO SEA ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS
THROUGH OUR REGION AT THAT TIME, THEN HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER KENTUCKY THIS EVENING WILL TRACK EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED WELL TO OUR
SOUTH. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHEAST BENDS BACK INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY WHERE AN UPPER LOW IS LOCATED. THIS FEATURE IS TENDING
TO SHEAR SOME EASTWARD, HOWEVER THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF PVA TO
PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC. THE ASSOCIATED LIFT WITH THE SHORT
WAVE ENERGY COMBINED WITH WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT IS GENERATING AN AREA
OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN. THIS IS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR EASTERN
MARYLAND AND DELAWARE ZONES. THERE IS DRIER AIR FARTHER NORTH AND
WITH SOME CONFLUENCE THE RAIN IS HAVING A TOUGH TIME EDGING
NORTHWARD. IT DOES APPEAR IT COULD LIFT A BIT FARTHER NORTH PER THE
RAP, HRRR AND NAM, BUT PROBABLY NOT AS FAR NORTH AS THE GFS/ECMWF
SHOW. THE POPS WERE ADJUSTED SOME AND WE MAINTAINED A NARROW AREA OF
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN DELMARVA AREA. THE DRY
LOW-LEVEL AIR EARLIER MAY HAVE RESULTED IN SOME ICE PELLETS AT THE
ONSET.
OTHERWISE, MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
NORTH OF THE LIGHT RAIN SHIELD. IT IS UP NORTH WHERE THE CLOUDINESS
SHOULD BE THE HIGHEST AND NOT AS THICK, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
POSSIBLY FALL A LITTLE FASTER WITH LIGHT WINDS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME FROST TO FORM LATE, MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 78. A
FROST ADVISORY THEREFORE REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE
ADJACENT AREAS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, AND
THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL ADVANCE FARTHER
EAST AND OUT TO SEA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THROUGH THE
MORNING, THOUGH, THICKER CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
WILL REMAIN FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AS THIS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA CAN EXPECT MORE OF A PARTLY CLOUDY DAY
WITH SOME LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES ONLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW LATE APRIL AVERAGES, MILDER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MOSTLY THE LOWER TO PERHAPS
MIDDLE 60S, WITH SOME COOLER 50S ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE AND INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S RANGE IN
MUCH OF OUR REGION BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. SOME LOCATIONS IN
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY COULD FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S WITH PATCHY
FROST POSSIBLE.
WE SHOULD REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID LEVEL LOW OFF NOVA
SCOTIA DURING THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A
MID LEVEL TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS
OVERHEAD ON MONDAY. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING CLOUDS TO OUR
REGION FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ALSO, THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. ANY RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT BEING THAT THE AIR MASS IS ANTICIPATED TO BE
QUITE DRY AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF EVAPORATION IS LIKELY.
A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES FARTHER OUT TO
SEA. THE RIDGE SHOULD PASS OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH DAYS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE DRY.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF THE MID LEVEL
LOW THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES LATE IN THE WEEK. ALSO, THERE IS DISAGREEMENT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH A COASTAL LOW PASSING
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THOUGH
MOST OF ITS IMPACT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. WE SHOULD BE
INFLUENCED BY A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH OUR REGION ON THURSDAY
AND WE WILL MENTION SOME CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THAT
PERIOD OF TIME.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST AND DRY WEATHER ARE
ANTICIPATED TO FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IN THE NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW MAY PASS OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY.
IT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND WE ARE
EXPECTING NO MORE THAN SCATTERED CLOUDS AT THIS TIME.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AND THEY MAY GO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL
FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TONIGHT...VFR WITH A CEILING AT OR ABOVE 8000 FEET /LOWEST
SOUTH/. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS BECOMING MOSTLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE, THEN BECOMING NORTHERLY 5 TO 8 KNOTS TOWARD DAYBREAK. SOME
LIGHT RAIN MAY NEAR KMIV AND KACY OVERNIGHT FOR A TIME.
SUNDAY...VFR. SOME CLOUD BASES /SCATTERED/ DEVELOPING AT 5000 FEET,
AND A CEILING AT OR ABOVE 10000 FEET FOR SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY IN
THE MORNING. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY 5-10 KNOTS, BECOMING
NORTHWEST TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
FOR DELAWARE BAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY SUNDAY, BUT
OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT RAIN AND A FEW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS FOR
THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS, LITTLE IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.
MONDAY NIGHT...A NORTHWEST WIND MAY GUST AROUND 25 KNOTS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ061-062-105.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...IOVINO/KLINE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
828 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
.UPDATE...STORMS CONTINUE OVER SE GA IN AREA OF STRONG SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT REAR QUAD OF UPPER JET. HRRR MODEL SHOWS
ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS SE GA UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE. EXPECT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE OVER SE GA WITH
SVR TSTM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM. MAIN AXIS OF MOISTURE AND
STORMS WILL SHIFT S INTO NE FL ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT AND MOST OF
SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO AFFECT SSI BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z
THIS EVENING. HAVE VCTS IN TAFS AGAIN FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR FL
TAFS.
&&
.MARINE...EXPECT STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE GA WATERS AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ADVISORY CONDITIONS OFFSHORE AND
CAUTION LEVELS NEAR SHORE TONIGHT.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK ON SUNDAY WITH OFFSHORE WINDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 69 89 64 79 / 70 20 10 0
SSI 70 86 66 74 / 60 20 10 10
JAX 72 90 68 80 / 40 30 20 30
SGJ 71 84 70 79 / 40 30 30 30
GNV 72 86 71 84 / 20 30 30 40
OCF 72 87 70 84 / 10 40 40 40
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR WATERS FROM
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
ZIBURA/PETERSON/WALSH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
400 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP TROUGHING THROUGH
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN MEXICO...FOLLOWED DOWNSTREAM BY
AMPLIFIED RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND DEEP SOUTH STATES.
MOIST SUBTROPICAL JET IS RIDING NORTHWARD BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEFORE TURNING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE FLORIDA PENINSULA RESIDES ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WHERE OUR DEEP LAYER WINDS PER 12Z
KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE WERE FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOUNDING DID SHOW A
BIT OF A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
AROUND 700MB...WITH A MOIST PROFILE BELOW THIS LEVEL TO THE
SURFACE.
AT THE SURFACE...
1020MB CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS HAS PUSHED A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA. CONTINUE TO SEE A BIG GRADIENT IN SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY WITH LOWER 70S SOUTH OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR...AND THEN QUICKLY DROPPING TO READINGS IN THE 50S AROUND
OCALA. THE GENERAL LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY CAN ALSO BE EASILY
SEEN WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...WHERE A DEFINED CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT CUTOFF IS LOCATED VERY NEAR I-4. SOUTH OF THIS
LINE...DIURNAL HEATING WORKED WITH THE GREATER BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE TO FORM THE SCT-BKN CUMULUS FIELD...WHILE NORTH THE
MOISTURE IS SIMPLY NOT IN PLACE TO EFFICIENTLY PRODUCE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF CLOUDS.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A FEW SHOWERS TRYING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE JUST EAST OF FORT MYERS DOWN TOWARD AREAS JUST EAST OF
NAPLES. LAST FEW HRRR RUNS SUGGEST WE WILL SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT UP INTO OUR SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES INTO THE EARLY EVENING
AS THE SEA-BREEZE CONTINUES TO ATTEMPT MIGRATING INLAND...HOWEVER
ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT COVERAGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
REST OF TODAY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE SPLIT NORTH TO SOUTH BY THE BOUNDARY NEAR THE
I-4 CORRIDOR. NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...THE LACK OF BL MOISTURE
MAKES INSTABILITY REALLY LACKING AND DO NOT HAVE ANY THUNDERSTORM
MENTION IN THE FORECAST. AS MENTIONED ABOVE IN THE SYNOPSIS...SOUTH
OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...THE SEA- BREEZE SHOULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH
FOCUS...AND THE COLUMN IS JUST CONDUCIVE ENOUGH TO POP A FEW SCT
LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS. 20% POPS EXTEND AS FAR NORTH AS POLK
COUNTY ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY...AND THEN HAVE
CHANCE 30% POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES (MAINLY AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES).
TONIGHT...
ANY ISOLATED EVENING STORMS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS
OF DIURNAL HEATING. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SHIFTING EASTWARD AND
BE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH
EFFICIENT WAA REGIME TO RESULT IN AN ACTIVE CONVECTION NIGHT
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY OVER TO AL/GA. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL RIDGE BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST
OVER OUR HEADS. THIS STACKED RIDGING REGIME SHOULD BE PLENTY TO
PROTECT OUR ZONES AND KEEP THIS INCLEMENT WEATHER WELL TO OUR
NORTH AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY...
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL EJECT OUT
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO/TN VALLEYS...WHILE A SERIES OF
WEAKER IMPULSES RIDE EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST.
THE MOVEMENT OF THESE MASS FIELDS WILL RESULT IN A DE-
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ALIGNED TO THE NORTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR WITH QUITE A BIT OF ONGOING SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO AL/GA. THE QUESTION FOR OUR FORECAST
WILL BE HOW THE WEST COAST SEA-BREEZE BEHAVES THROUGH THE DAY.
GENERALLY SPEAKING...THE GOOD SYNOPTIC SETUP FOR LIFT WILL REMAIN
TO OUR NORTH TOMORROW...BUT WE WILL HAVE THE SEA-BREEZE TO PROVIDE
AT LEAST SOME FOCUS. WIND FIELDS EVOLVE FAVORABLY TOWARD ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY (ESPECIALLY NORTH OF TAMPA
BAY)...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES ELEVATING TO BETWEEN 40-45 KNOTS
OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES. THESE VALUES...ALTHOUGH NOT
EXTREME...ARE CAPABLE OF SUSTAINING ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HERE IS
THE PROBLEM FOR OUR AREA...THE 1000-700MB FLOW TOMORROW IS FROM
THE W/SW AT 15-25 KNOTS. FIRST OF ALL...THIS WILL KEEP THE WEST
COAST SEA- BREEZE FAIRLY WEAK AND DISORGANIZED. SECOND...THE
BOUNDARY WILL VERY QUICKLY TRANSLATE INLAND. WITH THIS IN
MIND...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDER WOULD BE OVER TOWARD THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...WHERE SEA-
BREEZE COLLISION WILL TAKE PLACE. IT IS A TOUGH CALL SINCE ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY AND COULD
TRANSLATE STRONGER WIND MOMENTUM TO THE GROUND. JUST UNSURE THAT
MUCH CONVECTION WILL EVEN TAKE PLACE OVER OUR ZONES IN THE FIRST
PLACE. BETTER CHANCES FOR THE STORMS SHOULD STAY MAINLY EAST AND
NORTH OF OUR ZONES.
&&
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...
SUN - A PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA AND CUTS-OFF AS A TROUGH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES SLIDES OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC...WITH NEARLY ZONAL/FLAT
RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF REGION. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF
COASTAL STATES SHIFTS DOWN INTO FL WITH AN ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE...
INITIALLY ACROSS FL...SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE STATE.
MON -TUE - THE FOUR CORNERS LOW OPENS AS IT TRACKS TO THE EASTERN
PLAINS...WITH TROUGHINESS DROPPING INTO THE WEST GULF AS RIDGING IN THE
EAST GULF SLIDES ACROSS FL. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE STATE LIFTS
NORTH WITH A LOW FORMING ON THE WESTERN PORTION...OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
OR GULF COAST.
WED-THU - THE EASTERN PLAINS TROUGH MOVES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AS
A TROUGH OR CLOSED LOW...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STREAMING SOME
DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF AND MUCH OF FL. THE SURFACE LOW TREKS
EAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWINGING INTO FL.
FRI - THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW EXITS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE NATIONS/S MID-SECTION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN
ACROSS THE PLAINS OR THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE FL BOUNDARY GETTING
PUSHED TO OR OFFSHORE FAR SOUTH FL.
SENSIBLE WEATHER AND FORECAST - THE UP-COMING WEEK IS A COMPLEX PATTERN
WITH THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC MODELS NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AND PERHAPS
OVERDOING SOME OF THE SMALLER DETAILS. IN ANY CASE...EXPECT MOIST TO
WET CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE MOST
COVERAGE WILL BE TUE INTO WED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY BECOME STRONG AND THERE COULD BE SOME FLOODING CONCERNS. FINALLY BY THE
LAST SOME DAY SOME DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SWEEP IN FROM THE
NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
TERMINALS. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR
STORM FOR KPGD/KFMY/KRSW. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
AROUND SUNSET. WINDS SHIFT SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST DURING
SATURDAY AND BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES. MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST
TERMINALS...SO TAFS SHOW PREVAILING VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTHERLY AND
SOUTHWESTERLY ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND RIDGES BACK TO THE WEST OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A PERIOD OF CAUTIONARY LEVEL WINDS IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
AT TIMES APPROACHING CAUTIONARY LEVELS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST WATERS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A FRONT BISECTS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON SEPARATING DRIER
CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR FROM MORE MOIST AND
HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH. THIS BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE
AND LIFT NORTH INTO SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND
ADVECTS HIGHER MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE.
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS...THE
ONLY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE HIGH DISPERSION INDICES
ON SATURDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL...NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 74 84 76 85 / 0 10 20 30
FMY 74 86 76 90 / 10 10 0 20
GIF 70 89 73 87 / 10 30 10 30
SRQ 73 84 77 85 / 0 10 10 30
BKV 68 88 70 86 / 0 10 30 40
SPG 74 84 77 83 / 0 10 20 30
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-
COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...14/MROCZKA
LONG TERM...09/RUDE
DECISION SUPPORT...09/RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1130 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015
.UPDATE...
15Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP TROUGHING THROUGH
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN MEXICO...FOLLOWED DOWNSTREAM BY
AMPLIFIED RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND DEEP SOUTH STATES.
MOIST SUBTROPICAL JET IS RIDING NORTHWARD BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEFORE TURNING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE FLORIDA PENINSULA RESIDES ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WHERE OUR DEEP LAYER WINDS PER 12Z
KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE WERE FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOUNDING DID SHOW A
BIT OF A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
AROUND 700MB...WITH A MOIST PROFILE BELOW THIS LEVEL TO THE
SURFACE.
AT THE SURFACE...
1020MB CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS HAS PUSHED A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA. SEEING A BIG GRADIENT IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S SOUTH OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR...AND THEN QUICKLY DROPPING TO READINGS IN THE 40S UP
TOWARD THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THE GENERAL LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY CAN
ALSO BE EASILY SEEN WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...WHERE A
DEFINED CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT CUTOFF IS LOCATED VERY NEAR I-4. SOUTH
OF THIS LINE...DIURNAL HEATING IS WORKING WITH THE GREATER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO FORM THE SCT-BKN CUMULUS FIELD...WHILE
NORTH THE MOISTURE IS SIMPLY NOT IN PLACE TO EFFICIENTLY PRODUCE
THE CLOUDS.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY...BUT SO FAR NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES OVER
LAND. WILL SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH OF I-4 THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD NOT BE ANYTHING LIKE THE DEGREE OF
CONVECTION EXPERIENCED IN MANY SPOTS DURING THURSDAY.
REST OF TODAY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE SPLIT NORTH TO SOUTH BY THE BOUNDARY NEAR THE
I-4 CORRIDOR. NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...THE LACK OF BL MOISTURE
MAKES INSTABILITY REALLY LACKING AND DO NOT HAVE THUNDERSTORM
MENTION IN THE FORECAST. IN FACT...NONE OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODEL MEMBERS ARE PRODUCING ANY RAIN OVER
THESE NORTHERN ZONES...SO THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.
SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA-
BREEZE SHOULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW SCT LATE DAY STORMS.
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO AROUND 20% AS FAR NORTH AS POLK COUNTY
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY...AND HAVE CHANCE 30-40%
POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES (MAINLY AWAY FROM THE BEACHES). A
SHOWER OR STORMS IS POSSIBLE RIGHT AT THE COAST...HOWEVER THE
SEA-BREEZE SHOULD MAKE SOME PROGRESS INLAND...AND MOST OF THE
RELIABLE GUIDANCE FAVORS AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST.
TONIGHT...
ANY ISOLATED EVENING STORMS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS
OF DIURNAL HEATING. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SHIFTING EASTWARD AND
BE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH
EFFICIENT WAA REGIME TO RESULT IN AN ACTIVE CONVECTION NIGHT
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY OVER TO AL/GA. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL RIDGE BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST
OVER OUR HEADS. THIS STACKED RIDGING REGIME SHOULD BE PLENTY TO
PROTECT OUR ZONES AND KEEP THIS INCLEMENT WEATHER WELL TO OUR
NORTH AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY...
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL EJECT OUT
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO/TN VALLEYS...WHILE A SERIES OF
WEAKER IMPULSES RIDE EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST.
THE MOVEMENT OF THESE MASS FIELDS WILL RESULT IN A DE-
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ALIGNED TO THE NORTH OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR WITH QUITE A BIT OF ONGOING SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO AL/GA. THE QUESTION FOR OUR FORECAST
WILL BE HOW THE WEST COAST SEA-BREEZE BEHAVES THROUGH THE DAY.
GENERALLY SPEAKING...THE GOOD SYNOPTIC SETUP FOR LIFT WILL REMAIN
TO OUR NORTH TOMORROW...BUT WE WILL HAVE THE SEA-BREEZE TO PROVIDE
AT LEAST SOME FOCUS. WIND FIELDS EVOLVE FAVORABLY TOWARD ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES
ELEVATING TO BETWEEN 40-45 KNOTS OVER OUR NORTHERN AREAS FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. THESE VALUES...ALTHOUGH NOT EXTREME...ARE
CAPABLE OF SUSTAINING ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HERE IS THE PROBLEM
FOR OUR AREA...THE 1000-700MB FLOW TOMORROW IS FROM THE W/SW AT
15-25 KNOTS. FIRST OF ALL...THIS WILL KEEP THE WEST COAST SEA-
BREEZE FAIRLY WEAK AND DISORGANIZED. SECOND...THE BOUNDARY WILL
VERY QUICKLY TRANSLATE INLAND. WITH THIS IN MIND...CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON THUNDER WOULD BE
OVER TOWARD THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...WHERE SEA-BREEZE COLLISION
WILL TAKE PLACE. IT IS A TOUGH CALL SINCE ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY AND MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS...BUT THE OVERALL COVERAGE LOOKS MUCH GREATER EAST
AND NORTH OF OUR ZONES. WILL TAKE A CLOSE LOOK AT THE 12Z GUIDANCE
PACKAGE AND SEE IF THIS "EAST COAST" PHILOSOPHY STILL SEEMS VALID.
&&
.AVIATION...
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS THE BKN CUMULUS FIELD FILLS
IN. THESE CIGS WILL RISE ABOVE VFR LEVELS TOWARD MIDDAY...WITH
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS THEN ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
ONLY EXCEPTIONS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
PM STORMS ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE. BEST CHANCES AT A LATE DAY STORM
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH TODAY WITH A
TURN ONSHORE EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST AND THEN
SOUTHWEST AND WEST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE SINKS TO THE SOUTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL BRIEFLY APPROACH
CAUTIONARY LEVELS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN
WATERS...BUT WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN AROUND 15 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 87 73 84 75 / 20 10 10 10
FMY 90 73 87 75 / 20 10 10 0
GIF 88 70 87 72 / 20 10 20 10
SRQ 87 72 83 75 / 20 0 0 10
BKV 87 66 86 70 / 10 0 20 10
SPG 86 75 85 76 / 20 0 10 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...14/MROCZKA
DECISION SUPPORT...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
930 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...FRONTAL TROUGH JUST ENTERING CENTRAL
FLORIDA PER THE 0900Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. THE TROUGH WILL WORK ITS WAY
DOWN THE FORECAST AREA AND IS FORECAST TO BE CLEAR OF THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES THIS EVENING. ACCOMPANYING WIND SHIFTS FROM THE NORTHWEST
TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE TROUGH
CLEARS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.
FIRST COUPLE OF VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MARINE STRATOCUMULUS IN THE NORTHEAST WINDFLOW OFF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA...GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS.
ANY CHANGE(S) TO BE MADE TO THIS AFTERNOON`S FORECAST WOULD BE TO
CLOUDS AND THE WIND DIRECTION/SPEED WHICH ARE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST
THE FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES DOWN THE PENINSULA.
.AVIATION...MORNING LOW CLOUDS...IFR INITIALLY THEN MVFR WITH
HEATING OF THE LOWER LAYERS... FROM ORLANDO INTERNATIONAL (MCO)
SOUTH MOVE SOUTH AND CLEAR THE AREA AS THE WINDS SHIFT FROM
NORTHWEST TO THE NORTH THEN EVENTUALLY NORTH LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING.
.MARINE...THE NOAA BUOYS WERE RECORDING NORTHWEST WINDS 12 TO 14
KNOTS AT 20NM AND 8 KNOTS AT 120NM AND 2 TO 3 FOOT SEAS AT BOTH THE
NOAA BUOYS AND THE TWO SCRIPPS BUOYS AT 4 AND 6NM OFF THE BEACH. THE
MAYPORT CMAN SITE ALREADY NORTHEAST AND THE SAINT AUGUSTINE SITE
NORTH. TRIDENT PIER IN PORT CANAVERAL...BUOY 009 AND SEBASTIAN INLET
CMAN SITES STILL NORTHWEST BUT SHOULD SHIFT TO THE NORTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
WINDS SHOULD PICK UP TO NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS WELL OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THIS
WILL PROMPT AN SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS EXERCISE CAUTION FOR WINDS
SEBASTIAN INLET NORTH.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
THE TAIL END OF A FRONTAL TROUGH PASSING OFFSHORE THE SE STATES WILL
PASS OVER ECFL WITH LITTLE FANFARE DURING THIS MORNING. LOCAL WINDS
WILL RESPOND BY VEERING FROM WLY COMPONENT AT DAYBREAK TO NORTH THEN
NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE DEPARTING BOUNDARY. AN APPROACHING RIDGE EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE PROGRESSIVE WLYS WL BRING WARM CONDS IN THE MID TO UPR 80S
ACROSS THE BULK OF THE AREA. RECENT HRRR GUID SUPPORTED BY GFS MOS
SHOWS A SMALL RAIN CHC ALONG THE SPACE CST AND TREASURE CST TO LAKE
OKEE DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE ONSHORE WINDS COMBINES
WITH SFC HEATING AND SOME MODEST MOISTURE TO CREATE ISOLD SHOWERS
AND A FAST MOVING STORM OR TWO. PRECIP CHCS WL RANGE FROM
UNMENTIONED WEST OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE
SOUTH. RAIN CHCS LARGELY TIED TO SFC HEATING AND BOUNDARY
INTERACTION WL DIMINISH AFTER NIGHTFALL. LOWS WILL MAKE IT TO THE
UPR 60S TO AROUND 70.
SAT...SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS
AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST INTO LATE WEEKEND.
WHILE MODELS SHOW OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH PWATS 1.6-18"...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
DRIER AIR LINGERING IN THE 850-500MB LEVEL...ESPECIALLY ON
SAT...WHICH MAY HELP DELAY CONVECTIVE ONSET UNTIL LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER ANY LINGERING DRY AIR WILL ENHANCE THE WIND
THREAT FROM STRONG STORMS ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MID LAYER WESTERLY
FLOW OF 45-55 KNOTS WITH WINDS EVEN IN THE 925-850MB LAYER
APPROACHING 30KTS.
SPC HAS THE AREA FROM BREVARD AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES NORTHWARDS UNDER
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WX WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS THE
MAIN HAZARD GIVEN THE BRISK STORM MOTION. A FEW ROTATING STORMS WILL
NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AS MODELS HINT
AT THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY TRYING TO FORM RIGHT ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST LATE IN THE DAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS THE FRONT EDGES
A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST FLOW INCREASES...BRINGING SOME
ACTIVITY FROM OFF THE GULF ACROSS THE PENINSULA.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S WITH
LOWS IN THE 70S.
SUNDAY...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO N FLORIDA WITH LITTLE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE
BETTER MOISTENING IN THE MID LEVEL GIVEN THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE
FRONT WITH BRISK WESTERLY FLOW INCREASING AS SPEEDS AT 925MB COME UP
TO 20-30 KNOTS AND 50-55 KNOTS AT 500MB.
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FLOW...NO SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED AND TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER...GENERALLY AROUND
90 OR LOW 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
EXPECT AN EARLY START TO CONVECTION WITH STORMS PROGRESSING QUICKLY
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS E CENTRAL FL IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. AS WITH SATURDAY...SPC HAS THE AREA FROM BREVARD
AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES NORTHWARDS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WX
WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS CONTINUING TO BE THE MAIN HAZARD.
THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND BRISK FLOW MAY ALLOW AND GULF
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA...MAINLY
IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS.
MON-THURS...UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE
WEEKEND`S FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS DOWN THE PENINSULA DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY BEFORE STALLING/WASHING OUT ACROSS S FLORIDA LATE IN
THE DAY. ROBUST UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON MONDAY WILL SLOWLY PHASE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AS IT
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AT THE SURFACE...WEAK BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH INTO TUESDAY AS
130KT JET SLIDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO HELPS SPAWN AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS ACROSS N FLORIDA/GA LATE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE SAME BROAD
SOLUTION...SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES TRANSLATE INTO LARGER DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF
THE SURFACE LOW.
GFS HAS SWUNG BACK TOWARDS A DRIER SOLUTION ON MONDAY...BUT WILL
KEEP WITH PREVIOUS RUNS AND KEEP SCT POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH
ACTIVITY FOCUSED TOWARDS THE FAR WESTERN INTERIOR...OKEECHOBEE AND
TREASURE COAST GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL NE PUSH THAT OCCURS BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY.
CONSENSUS BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF STILL KEEP 40-60 PERCENT POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR TUES AND WED AS WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW TAPS INTO
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND PWATS COME UP TO CLOSE TO 2". WIND FIELDS
WILL SUPPORT A FEW BREEZY DAYS DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SOME GUSTY STORMS AS WELL.
SURFACE LOW PULLS OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC WED NIGHT AND FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER DEPENDING ON THE SPEED
OF THE FRONT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
COTD VFR CONDS THE NEXT 24H OVER MOST SITES WITH EXCEPTION OF
SOME PSBL CIGS NR FL 040 AND ISOLD SHRA FM VRB-FPR-SUA-OKE. FM
24/15Z-24/22Z.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...PSG OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE WATERS THIS
AM WI BRING CHANGING WIND CONDS FROM MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MAIN CONCERN WL BE DEVELOPING NLY TO ONSHORE WIND DURING AFTERNOON
WHICH WL INCREASE WAVE HGHTS ALONG WITH BRINGING A WIND CHOP TO
LCL WATERS. HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...HOWEVER SEA STATE
WL BEGIN TO RAMP UP ONCE THE NLYS BEHIND THE FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SAT-SUN...S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS SAT AFTERNOON AS
GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS OH/TN VALLEYS. WINDS VEER MORE W/SW INTO SUNDAY AS FRONT
DROPS INTO NORTH FLORIDA WITH WINDS CONTINUING 15-20KTS. SEAS WILL
INCREASE UP TO 4-5 FT OFFSHORE INTO SUNDAY WITH PERIODS SHORTENING
DUE TO THE SHORT FETCH. BOATERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SCATTERED
STRONG STORMS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST QUICKLY THIS WEEKEND.
MON-WED...FRONT SLIDES THROUGH LATE ON MONDAY WITH WINDS VEERING
NORTH THEN NORTHEAST 10-15KTS. BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK INTO REGION INTO
TUESDAY WITH WINDS VEERING EAST-SOUTHEAST...THEN INCREASING OUT OF
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LATE ON WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE LOW IS FORECASTED
TO TRACK ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN FOR SCATTERED
OFFSHORE MOVING STRONG STORMS INTO MID WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 80 68 85 72 / 10 10 30 20
MCO 86 70 87 71 / 10 10 30 10
MLB 82 71 87 72 / 20 10 30 20
VRB 82 69 87 72 / 20 10 20 10
LEE 86 70 84 73 / 10 10 30 20
SFB 84 69 86 74 / 10 10 30 20
ORL 85 70 86 72 / 10 10 30 20
FPR 84 69 88 71 / 20 10 20 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
426 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...ORIENTED SW TO NE FROM THE NE GULF TO THE
ATLC COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SWD AND MOVE INTO N
CENTRAL FL BY MID MORNING. SOME PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER THE I-75
CORRIDOR BUT SCT-BROKEN MID DECK CLOUDS MAY KEEP VSBY FROM GOING
MUCH BELOW 1-2 MILES. A SURGE OF NELY WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY WITH OVERALL DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTING IN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
OUR NRN AND NW ZONES. NIL POPS TODAY...WITH SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY.
TEMPS COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S N ZONES TO
MID 80S SW ZONES. BREEZY NELY WINDS AT THE COAST/BEACHES AROUND 15-
20G30MPH AT TIMES. THE BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
BY 5-6 PM.
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT THAT DROPS INTO CENTRAL FL TODAY STALLS TO OUR
S THEN BEGINS TO MAKE A NWD PUSH BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
SKY COVER INCREASING WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING RAPIDLY AFTER
06Z. MINS FCST IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS
TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE...BUT CAN`T RULE
OUT A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS WRN ZONES AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES.
.SHORT TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
TROUGHING ALOFT WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AND
THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY...REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY
NIGHT. MEANWHILE...RIDGING ALOFT WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING WESTERLY FLOW
OVER OUR REGION. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST GA
ON SATURDAY MORNING...WITH STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY POSSIBLY DEVELOPING A FEW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY MORNING
NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. OUR AREA WILL THEN BE LOCATED IN THE WARM
SECTOR WELL IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE SWEEPING THROUGH
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO MOVE
INTO SOUTHEAST GA FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD IGNITE AT LEAST SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY...WITH THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE BEING THE LIKELY TRIGGER
MECHANISM IN FL. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER
SOUTHEAST GA BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH LIKELY POPS FOR COASTAL
NORTHEAST FL AS ACTIVITY ENCOUNTERS A PINNED ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. LESS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF GAINESVILLE/ST. AUGUSTINE AS MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
ADVECTS OVERHEAD FROM THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT
A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL VEERING PROFILE AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY...WITH CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -
9 CELSIUS. GIVEN THESE VARIABLES AND STRENGTHENING SW/W WINDS
JUST OFF THE SURFACE...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 WITHIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A MARGINAL
RISK FOR THE REST OF NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL. HIGHS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 80S. STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS THROUGH SUNSET BEFORE ACTIVITY MOVES OFFSHORE.
STRONG W/SW FLOW WILL PERSIST ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY LOCALLY.
THIS MAY DEVELOP AN EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO THAT MAY MOVE ONSHORE INTO THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY ON SUNDAY MORNING. ABOVE NORMAL LOWS ARE EXPECTED...WITH
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. EXPECT ANOTHER SEASONABLY WARM DAY REGION-
WIDE...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST AND NORTH
CENTRAL FL DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE. DRY AIR ALOFT
WILL SINK SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST GA AS TROUGHING ALOFT DIGS
SOUTHWARD OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...LIMITING CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF WAYCROSS TO BRUNSWICK. A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER FL...WHERE MODEL
SOUNDINGS DEPICT A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER...OVERALL
FORCING IS QUESTIONABLE...AND THUS DECIDED TO USE SCATTERED
COVERAGE. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED OUR REGION WITHIN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY.
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BOOST HIGHS TO THE 85-90 RANGE REGION-
WIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH CONVECTION CONCLUDING DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S OVER
NORTH CENTRAL FL.
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EMERGE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
EARLY MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION ON
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL STALL OVER CENTRAL FL MONDAY...AND THEN WILL
RETREAT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. EXPECT WIDELY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER MAINLY INLAND LOCATIONS OF
NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL MONDAY...WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN
SOUTHEAST GA EXPECTED TO KEEP THINGS DRY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S AT THE COAST DUE TO DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW TO THE LOWER 80S
IN NORTH CENTRAL FL. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER FL
ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO RETREAT NORTHWARD...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN SOUTHEAST GA. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60
FOR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA TO THE MID/UPPER 60S IN FL. LIKELY POPS
ARE EXPECTED TUES AND TUES NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MIGRATE THROUGH OUR AREA. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY...STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
WARM FRONT TUES AND ALONG A COLD FRONT/STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW
WED. HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL RANGE FROM 75-80...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. A
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL PLUNGE INTO OUR REGION
LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS FALLING TO
THE 55-60 RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR WITH POSSIBILITY OF MVFR VSBY/LOW STRATUS
FOR A BRIEF TIME AT GNV EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL
SHIFT AROUND TO N EARLY THEN NE BY MID MORNING. STRONGER NE WINDS
FOR SSI...CRG...SGJ...JAX AND VQQ TERMINALS UP AROUND 12-15G20KT
THEN WEAKENING BY THIS EVENING AND TURNING E TO SE OVERNIGHT AT 10
KT OR LESS.
&&
.MARINE...W TO NW WINDS 10 KT OR LESS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
BECOMING STRONGER OUT OF THE TO N TO NE BEHIND EARLY COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE AND BUOYS SHOW WE WILL
LIKELY REACH SCA CONDITIONS FOR ABOUT A 4-8 HOUR PERIOD TODAY SO
HOISTED SCA FOR THE NRN WATERS TIL 4 PM TODAY THOUGH COULD BE
SLIGHTLY EARLIER BASED ON LATEST RAP MODEL. SEAS FCST TO BUILD TO
ABOUT 4-6 FT BY MID DAY. FOR SRN WATERS S OF THE ST AUGUSTINE SCEC
HEADLINE WILL SUFFICE. WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT VEERING FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY AS NEXT STORM SYSTEM PASSES
TO OUR N. NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA WATERS EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...STALLING MONDAY NIGHT OVER CENTRAL FL. A SFC LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE W ON TUESDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK AS SURF BUILDS TODAY. LOW TO MODERATE
RISK FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 78 59 82 68 / 10 10 70 40
SSI 71 63 79 70 / 0 10 60 40
JAX 76 63 85 70 / 0 10 60 40
SGJ 74 67 85 71 / 10 10 50 20
GNV 82 63 87 71 / 10 10 40 20
OCF 86 65 86 71 / 10 10 30 20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO
FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
60 NM.
&&
$$
SHASHY/NELSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
339 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015
.DISCUSSION...
THE TAIL END OF A FRONTAL TROUGH PASSING OFFSHORE THE SE STATES
WILL PASS OVER ECFL WITH LITTLE FANFARE DURING THIS MORNING. LOCAL
WINDS WILL RESPOND BY VEERING FROM WLY COMPONENT AT DAYBREAK TO
NORTH THEN NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING BOUNDARY. AN APPROACHING RIDGE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE PROGRESSIVE WLYS WL BRING WARM CONDS IN THE
MID TO UPR 80S ACROSS THE BULK OF THE AREA. RECENT HRRR GUID
SUPPORTED BY GFS MOS SHOWS A SMALL RAIN CHC ALONG THE SPACE CST
AND TREASURE CST TO LAKE OKEE DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON AS
THE ONSHORE WINDS COMBINES WITH SFC HEATING AND SOME MODEST
MOISTURE TO CREATE ISOLD SHOWERS AND A FAST MOVING STORM OR TWO.
PRECIP CHCS WL RANGE FROM UNMENTIONED WEST OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR TO
AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTH. RAIN CHCS LARGELY TIED TO SFC
HEATING AND BOUNDARY INTERACTION WL DIMINISH AFTER NIGHTFALL. LOWS
WILL MAKE IT TO THE UPR 60S TO AROUND 70.
SAT...SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS
AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST INTO LATE WEEKEND.
WHILE MODELS SHOW OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH PWATS 1.6-18"...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
DRIER AIR LINGERING IN THE 850-500MB LEVEL...ESPECIALLY ON
SAT...WHICH MAY HELP DELAY CONVECTIVE ONSET UNTIL LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER ANY LINGERING DRY AIR WILL ENHANCE THE WIND
THREAT FROM STRONG STORMS ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MID LAYER WESTERLY
FLOW OF 45-55 KNOTS WITH WINDS EVEN IN THE 925-850MB LAYER
APPROACHING 30KTS.
SPC HAS THE AREA FROM BREVARD AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES NORTHWARDS UNDER
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WX WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS THE
MAIN HAZARD GIVEN THE BRISK STORM MOTION. A FEW ROTATING STORMS WILL
NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AS MODELS HINT
AT THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY TRYING TO FORM RIGHT ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST LATE IN THE DAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS THE FRONT EDGES
A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST FLOW INCREASES...BRINGING SOME
ACTIVITY FROM OFF THE GULF ACROSS THE PENINSULA.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S WITH
LOWS IN THE 70S.
SUNDAY...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO N FLORIDA WITH LITTLE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE
BETTER MOISTENING IN THE MID LEVEL GIVEN THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE
FRONT WITH BRISK WESTERLY FLOW INCREASING AS SPEEDS AT 925MB COME UP
TO 20-30 KNOTS AND 50-55 KNOTS AT 500MB.
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FLOW...NO SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED AND TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER...GENERALLY AROUND
90 OR LOW 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
EXPECT AN EARLY START TO CONVECTION WITH STORMS PROGRESSING QUICKLY
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS E CENTRAL FL IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. AS WITH SATURDAY...SPC HAS THE AREA FROM BREVARD
AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES NORTHWARDS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WX
WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS CONTINUING TO BE THE MAIN HAZARD.
THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND BRISK FLOW MAY ALLOW AND GULF
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA...MAINLY
IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS.
MON-THURS...UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE
WEEKEND`S FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS DOWN THE PENINSULA DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY BEFORE STALLING/WASHING OUT ACROSS S FLORIDA LATE IN
THE DAY. ROBUST UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON MONDAY WILL SLOWLY PHASE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AS IT
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AT THE SURFACE...WEAK BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH INTO TUESDAY AS
130KT JET SLIDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO HELPS SPAWN AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS ACROSS N FLORIDA/GA LATE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE SAME BROAD
SOLUTION...SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES TRANSLATE INTO LARGER DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF
THE SURFACE LOW.
GFS HAS SWUNG BACK TOWARDS A DRIER SOLUTION ON MONDAY...BUT WILL
KEEP WITH PREVIOUS RUNS AND KEEP SCT POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH
ACTIVITY FOCUSED TOWARDS THE FAR WESTERN INTERIOR...OKEECHOBEE AND
TREASURE COAST GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL NE PUSH THAT OCCURS BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY.
CONSENSUS BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF STILL KEEP 40-60 PERCENT POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR TUES AND WED AS WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW TAPS INTO
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND PWATS COME UP TO CLOSE TO 2". WIND FIELDS
WILL SUPPORT A FEW BREEZY DAYS DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SOME GUSTY STORMS AS WELL.
SURFACE LOW PULLS OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC WED NIGHT AND FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER DEPENDING ON THE SPEED
OF THE FRONT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
COTD VFR CONDS THE NEXT 24H OVER MOST SITES WITH EXCEPTION OF
SOME PSBL CIGS NR FL 040 AND ISOLD SHRA FM VRB-FPR-SUA-OKE. FM
24/15Z-24/22Z.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...PSG OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE WATERS THIS
AM WI BRING CHANGING WIND CONDS FROM MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MAIN CONCERN WL BE DEVELOPING NLY TO ONSHORE WIND DURING AFTERNOON
WHICH WL INCREASE WAVE HGHTS ALONG WITH BRINGING A WIND CHOP TO
LCL WATERS. HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...HOWEVER SEA STATE
WL BEGIN TO RAMP UP ONCE THE NLYS BEHIND THE FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SAT-SUN...S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS SAT AFTERNOON AS
GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS OH/TN VALLEYS. WINDS VEER MORE W/SW INTO SUNDAY AS FRONT
DROPS INTO NORTH FLORIDA WITH WINDS CONTINUING 15-20KTS. SEAS WILL
INCREASE UP TO 4-5 FT OFFSHORE INTO SUNDAY WITH PERIODS SHORTENING
DUE TO THE SHORT FETCH. BOATERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SCATTERED
STRONG STORMS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST QUICKLY THIS WEEKEND.
MON-WED...FRONT SLIDES THROUGH LATE ON MONDAY WITH WINDS VEERING
NORTH THEN NORTHEAST 10-15KTS. BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK INTO REGION INTO
TUESDAY WITH WINDS VEERING EAST-SOUTHEAST...THEN INCREASING OUT OF
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LATE ON WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE LOW IS FORECASTED
TO TRACK ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN FOR SCATTERED
OFFSHORE MOVING STRONG STORMS INTO MID WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 80 68 85 72 / 10 10 30 20
MCO 86 70 87 71 / 10 10 30 10
MLB 82 71 87 72 / 20 10 30 20
VRB 82 69 87 72 / 20 10 20 10
LEE 86 70 84 73 / 10 10 30 20
SFB 84 69 86 74 / 10 10 30 20
ORL 85 70 86 72 / 10 10 30 20
FPR 84 69 88 71 / 20 10 20 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PENDERGRAST
LONG TERM....MOSES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1041 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN MOVES IN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF THE NC/SC BORDER
TONIGHT. OBSERVATIONS SHOW NORTHEASTERLY WINDS NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHICH IS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO CONTINUE BEHIND THE QLCS DEPARTING OFF THE COAST. THE
HIGHEST MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
COUNTIES. MESOANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY
REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LIFTED
INDICES AS LOW AS -4/-5 IN THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF THE FA. EXPECT
THIS AREA TO SEE A MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE ACTIVITY FAIRLY
WELL AND SHOWS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY DEPARTING THE FORECAST AREA BY
06Z SO HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN OVERNIGHT. OBSERVATIONS SHOW LOW
VISIBILITIES IN LANCASTER AND CHESTERFIELD COUNTIES CLOSE TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL
SOME OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN MILD...ONLY FALLING INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY WITH THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS LIKELY TO BE MORE FAVORED SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW
SINKS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS VA/NC AND OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY EVENING.
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND COLD 500 MB TEMPS NOTED ON
SUNDAY BUT MOISTURE MAY BE LACKING TO SUPPORT MUCH CONVECTION SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A WARM DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE THE EXTREME NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE COOLER BEHIND THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
PATTERN NEXT WEEK. ON MON/TUE THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST AND YET ANOTHER SLOW
MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW EJECTING EASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES. EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH A
PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN
TO OPEN AND DRIFT EASTWARD EVENTUALLY PHASING WITH NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO OUR AREA TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE LATEST
GFS RUN AND THE PREVIOUS ECMWF FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD.
THE PREVIOUS ECMWF SHOWS SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. THE LATEST
GFS SHOWS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BUT ALSO SHOWS ANOTHER CUT-OFF UPPER LOW FORMING OVER
THE EASTERN GULF COAST. THIS FEATURE COULD SPREAD PRECIPITATION
BACK INTO SC BY LATE SATURDAY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DRY AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AT OR
JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS SHIFTED OFF THE COAST
TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY REMAINING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA. NO RESTRICTIONS AT THE TAF SITES CURRENTLY
BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR STORM AFFECTING AGS/DNL SO HAVE
HAVE A TEMPO GROUP THROUGH 03Z. MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR
RESTRICTIONS RETURNING AFTER 06Z ALTHOUGH BELIEVE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL. HAVE ADDED MVFR RESTRICTIONS AT AGS/DNL
TOWARDS DAYBREAK ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. THE LOW-
LEVEL JET SUPPORTS KEEPING LLWS IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS
OVERNIGHT. USED THE NAM FOR THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SHEAR. THE MODELS
SHOW THE BOUNDARY SINKING SOUTHWARD SUNDAY BUT WITH SHALLOW
MOISTURE. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE STILL APPEARED TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST. BASED ON THE GFS LAMP AND THE
NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL WE INCLUDED WIND GUSTS NEAR 24
KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BOISE ID
837 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015
.DISCUSSION...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND DECREASING SHOWERS. NO
UPDATES NEEDED. RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOWED AN AREA OF SHOWERS
FROM PARTS OF MALHEUR...CANYON AND OWYHEE COUNTIES TO THE NW AND
SE. THE HRRR RADAR DEPICTION HAD THIS...AS WELL AS SHOWERS THROUGH
THE WEST CENTRAL ID MTNS...WHICH SHOULD DECAY BY MIDNIGHT.
LIGHTNING WAS DETECTED OVER CENTRAL MALHEUR COUNTY AND AS OF 823PM
THE STRONGEST CELL CAPABLE OF LIGHTNING APPEARED EAST OF DUCK
VALLEY MOVING INTO NV. CLOSER TO THE NRN LOW CENTER THERE WAS MORE
CONVECTIVE ACTION /NEAR THE BLUE MTNS/ WHILE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS
WERE MOSTLY EAST OF OUR AREA. COULD SEE A LINGERING SNOW SHOWER
ACROSS E VALLEY COUNTY OR S TWIN FALLS COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT
CHANCES ARE SLIM...AS MENTIONED EARLIER. WIND GUSTS NEAR SHOWERS
ACROSS THE TREASURE VALLEY COULD APPROACH 45 MPH THROUGH 930 OR 10
PM...WITH WINDS REBUILDING SUNDAY TO 25-40 MPH ACROSS WINDIER
AREAS /KMUO/ BEFORE DECREASING SUNDAY EVENING. FORECAST ON TRACK
FOR NO UPDATES.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR WITH AREAS OF LOW VFR IN ISOLATED SHOWERS. SHOWERS
WILL DIE OUT OVER THE COURSE OF THE EVENING...LINGERING A LITTLE
LONGER OVER THE WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. SURFACE
WINDS...NORTHWESTERLY...GENERALLY 10-20 KTS WITH STRONGER GUSTS IN
SHOWERS...BECOMING STRONGER UP TO 35 KTS ALONG THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN
IN THE MORNING. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...NW 15-15
KTS...BECOMING NNW 20-30 KTS BY 26/12Z...AND NNW 10-20 KTS BY
27/00Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A
SPLITTING UPPER TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR DEEPER CONVECTION
ACROSS NEVADA WHICH EXTENDS TO JUST NORTH OF THE IDAHO/NEVADA
BORDER. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
SPLIT /A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WASHINGTON/ WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES TO THE S-SE AND
WEAKENS OVERNIGHT. THE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE FOR MOST AREAS AFTER
SUNSET BUT COULD LINGER ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA /GENERALLY EAST OF A MCCALL-TWIN FALLS LINE/ THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN UTAH/WESTERN
COLORADO WILL ENHANCE THE W-NW WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED WINDY CORRIDOR FROM MOUNTAIN
HOME TO TWIN FALLS. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT THEY WILL BE CLOSE TO SUSTAINED 30 MPH AND/OR GUSTS
TO 45 MPH FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE PACNW. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY
OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...RESULTING IN LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO ABOVE
NORMAL ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND STARTING MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NEAR 80F IN THE LOWER VALLEYS ON
TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD...OR AROUND 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. BY WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST AND
COOLER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A
COOL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. MODELS ARE MUCH
STRONGER WITH THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY BUT SINCE THEY ARE AT THE
BOTTOM OF THE ENSEMBLE ENVELOPE DECIDED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONABLE VALUES FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....AB
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....KA/WH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
515 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...
323 PM CDT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH FAIRLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND ASSOCIATED RAIN
AND AMOUNTS.
DRY AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH
GRADUAL MOISTENING FROM BONE DRY CONDITIONS EARLIER TODAY THAT
WERE AMONGST DRIEST IN ENTIRE COUNTRY. W/V IMAGERY SHOWS SHORT
WAVE/MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX INTO EASTERN IA THAT IS RESULTING IN
OCCASIONAL VERY LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES REACHING THE GROUND DESPITE
LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. SUSPECT THAT HRRR MODEL IS TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH HIGHER REFLECTIVITY/RAIN REACHING THE GROUND SOUTH
OF I-88 OR SO AND FOCUS FOR MOST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE IN FAR NORTHERN CWA.
LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...AREA WILL BE IN BROAD
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT BUT ALSO LACKING FOCUS FOR PRECIP WITH
MIDLEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD. SUSPECT THAT THERE WILL BE SEVERAL
MAINLY DRY HOURS WITH PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. THEN MAIN
WAVE WILL START TO SPREAD IN FROM SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AS CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MIGRATES
ACROSS LOWER MO VALLEY. PRECIP WILL BE FIGHTING DRY EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST CWA...BUT THEN AS 700 MB FGEN
STRENGTHENS AND TROWAL LIKE FEATURE SPREADS ~1 TO ~1.25 INCH PWATS
ACROSS AREA...EXPECTING MID-LATE SATURDAY AM TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY
PERIODS OF RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS AND STEADY TO EVEN BRIEFLY HEAVY
RATES. VERY MINIMAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT WELL
SOUTH OF I-80...SO HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT EMBEDDED THUNDER CHANCES
THERE. STILL HAVE HIGH END LIKELY TO CAT POPS IN LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM NORTH SHOULD REDUCE
RATES...WITH PRECIP QUICKLY SHIFTING SOUTH DURING EVENING AND
SKIES CLEARING TOWARD EARLY SUNDAY.
RAIN AMOUNTS FROM MAIN SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
SHOULD RANGE FROM ABOUT 1/2 INCH IN FAR NORTHEAST TO A BIT UPWARDS
OF ONE INCH IN SOUTHWEST 1/4 TO 1/3 OF CWA. CONFIDENCE IN LOW-
MEDIUM IN THESE AMOUNTS GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR BANDING PLACEMENT TO
SHIFT.
REGARDING TEMPS...INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FALL TONIGHT...SO
GENERALLY IN 40S TONIGHT EXCEPT UPPER 30S NEAR LAKE COUNTY SHORE.
CLOUDS...RAIN AND GUSTY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL MAKE FOR RAW
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AND HIGHS ONLY RECOVERING TO THE LOW/MID
40S TO LOWER 50S...COOLEST ON ILLINOIS SHORE AND WARMEST SOUTH OF
I-80. TEMPS WILL THEN DIP BACK TO THE 30S BY EARLY SUNDAY WITH H8
TEMPS FALLING TO JUST BELOW 0 CELSIUS. EXPECTING SOME NORTHERN
INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO DIP TO AROUND FREEZING. OVERALL IT WILL BE
ANOTHER NIGHT TO PROTECT COLD SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
RC
&&
.LONG TERM...
333 PM CDT
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY
ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLER CONDITIONS NEAR THE LAKE...BUT ALSO
GRADUAL WARMING INLAND. WITH POSSIBLY MINOR EXCEPTION OF
WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY DRY AS WELL. AIRMASS
WILL BE COOLEST SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH ONLY MID-UPPER
40S ALONG SHORE AND MID-UPPER 50S INLAND AND THEN OVERNIGHT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT AWAY FROM CHICAGO HEAT ISLAND IN LOWER-MID 30S. AS
HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST TOWARD EARLY MONDAY...WINDS MAY
DIMINISH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST PATCHY FROST...BUT HAVE NOT
ADDED IT TO GRIDS YET. INLAND HIGHS SHOULD BE INTO THE 60S EACH
DAY MON-THU AND TEMPS COULD APPROACH 70 NEXT FRIDAY.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KT GRADUALLY INCREASING LATER
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
* AREA OF LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BY 00Z...WITH GREATEST
COVERAGE FROM ORD NORTH. UPSTREAM CONDITIONS INDICATE VFR CIGS
WITH OCNL MVFR VIS WITH RA/SHRA. RAIN LINGERING THROUGH 03Z OR
SO WITH A LULL POSSIBLE AFTER THAT.
* RAIN SPREADING OVER DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING ON SATURDAY
WITH IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING A FEW HOURS AFTER ONSET.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION
AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS. ON THE LOCAL SCALE...A LAKE BREEZE IS
SEEN ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA INCHING WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS. WITH THE DEEP MIXING THAT HAS OCCURRED OVER LAND...THAT
WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE LAKE BREEZE TO FLUCTUATE SOME IN SPEED.
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE
IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE EXTREME LOW-LEVEL DRYNESS WILL
INITIALLY PREVENT RADAR ECHOES FROM MATERIALIZING AS RAIN SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON OVER CHICAGO AIRPORTS...THOUGH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN WILL LIKELY BE SEEN NEAR OR AT RFD LATER TODAY. AFTER
DARK...AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...LIGHT SHOWERS MAY MOVE NEAR/OVER THE CHICAGOLAND TAF
SITES.
THE PRIMARY PERIOD OF RAIN CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE SATURDAY
THOUGH HAVE SLOWED THE ONSET TIME IN THE FORECAST UNTIL THE
PROJECTED STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES. THIS LOOKS TO BE MID TO LATE
MORNING. IFR CIGS AND AT LEAST TEMPORARY VISIBILITY OF 3SM OR
LOWER CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE MODERATE RAIN. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TIME GIVEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN WINDS.
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS STARTING AROUND 00Z
ESPECIALLY FROM ORD NORTH AND WEST. MEDIUM HIGH IN VFR CIGS AND
VFR/MVFR VIS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
* HIGH IN IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN ON SATURDAY. MEDIUM IN TIMING.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR WITH PRIMARILY NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS.
MTF/RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
215 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION HAS SET
UP GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. THE
LIGHT WINDS REGIME AND LAND-LAKE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING HAS SET UP A
LAKE BREEZE WITH NEARSHORE WINDS TAKING AN ONSHORE ORIENTATION
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT...LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE EAST TO NWRN
MO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND EAST
FROM THE LOW ACROSS CNTRL IL/IN...WITH WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY BY
LATE TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AS THE LOW TRACKS EWD...KEEPING WINDS OVER THE LAKE
ELY. AS THE LOW PASSES SOUTH OF THE LAKE AND A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES...WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 25-30 KT OVER THE
SRN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. AS THE LOW PASSES EAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL BACK TO
NORTHERLY. WHILE GALES ARE NOT LIKELY...WINDS OVER THE SRN
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO REQUIRE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AND EVEN THOUGH WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS WITH THE SHIFT TO NORTHERLY...THE LONG FETCH
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WAVES INTO
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE BY
TUESDAY MORNING AND REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK...SETTING A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS OVER
THE LAKE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
334 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...
323 PM CDT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH FAIRLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND ASSOCIATED RAIN
AND AMOUNTS.
DRY AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH
GRADUAL MOISTENING FROM BONE DRY CONDITIONS EARLIER TODAY THAT
WERE AMONGST DRIEST IN ENTIRE COUNTRY. W/V IMAGERY SHOWS SHORT
WAVE/MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX INTO EASTERN IA THAT IS RESULTING IN
OCCASIONAL VERY LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES REACHING THE GROUND DESPITE
LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. SUSPECT THAT HRRR MODEL IS TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH HIGHER REFLECTIVITY/RAIN REACHING THE GROUND SOUTH
OF I-88 OR SO AND FOCUS FOR MOST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE IN FAR NORTHERN CWA.
LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...AREA WILL BE IN BROAD
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT BUT ALSO LACKING FOCUS FOR PRECIP WITH
MIDLEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD. SUSPECT THAT THERE WILL BE SEVERAL
MAINLY DRY HOURS WITH PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. THEN MAIN
WAVE WILL START TO SPREAD IN FROM SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AS CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MIGRATES
ACROSS LOWER MO VALLEY. PRECIP WILL BE FIGHTING DRY EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST CWA...BUT THEN AS 700 MB FGEN
STRENGTHENS AND TROWAL LIKE FEATURE SPREADS ~1 TO ~1.25 INCH PWATS
ACROSS AREA...EXPECTING MID-LATE SATURDAY AM TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY
PERIODS OF RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS AND STEADY TO EVEN BRIEFLY HEAVY
RATES. VERY MINIMAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT WELL
SOUTH OF I-80...SO HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT EMBEDDED THUNDER CHANCES
THERE. STILL HAVE HIGH END LIKELY TO CAT POPS IN LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM NORTH SHOULD REDUCE
RATES...WITH PRECIP QUICKLY SHIFTING SOUTH DURING EVENING AND
SKIES CLEARING TOWARD EARLY SUNDAY.
RAIN AMOUNTS FROM MAIN SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
SHOULD RANGE FROM ABOUT 1/2 INCH IN FAR NORTHEAST TO A BIT UPWARDS
OF ONE INCH IN SOUTHWEST 1/4 TO 1/3 OF CWA. CONFIDENCE IN LOW-
MEDIUM IN THESE AMOUNTS GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR BANDING PLACEMENT TO
SHIFT.
REGARDING TEMPS...INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FALL TONIGHT...SO
GENERALLY IN 40S TONIGHT EXCEPT UPPER 30S NEAR LAKE COUNTY SHORE.
CLOUDS...RAIN AND GUSTY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL MAKE FOR RAW
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AND HIGHS ONLY RECOVERING TO THE LOW/MID
40S TO LOWER 50S...COOLEST ON ILLINOIS SHORE AND WARMEST SOUTH OF
I-80. TEMPS WILL THEN DIP BACK TO THE 30S BY EARLY SUNDAY WITH H8
TEMPS FALLING TO JUST BELOW 0 CELSIUS. EXPECTING SOME NORTHERN
INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO DIP TO AROUND FREEZING. OVERALL IT WILL BE
ANOTHER NIGHT TO PROTECT COLD SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
RC
&&
.LONG TERM...
333 PM CDT
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY
ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLER CONDITIONS NEAR THE LAKE...BUT ALSO
GRADUAL WARMING INLAND. WITH POSSIBLY MINOR EXCEPTION OF
WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY DRY AS WELL. AIRMASS
WILL BE COOLEST SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH ONLY MID-UPPER
40S ALONG SHORE AND MID-UPPER 50S INLAND AND THEN OVERNIGHT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT AWAY FROM CHICAGO HEAT ISLAND IN LOWER-MID 30S. AS
HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST TOWARD EARLY MONDAY...WINDS MAY
DIMINISH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST PATCHY FROST...BUT HAVE NOT
ADDED IT TO GRIDS YET. INLAND HIGHS SHOULD BE INTO THE 60S EACH
DAY MON-THU AND TEMPS COULD APPROACH 70 NEXT FRIDAY.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KT GRADUALLY INCREASING LATER
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
* SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT LEAST NEARBY THROUGH 03Z OR SO.
* RAIN SPREADING OVER DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING ON SATURDAY
WITH IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING A FEW HOURS AFTER ONSET.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION
AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS. ON THE LOCAL SCALE...A LAKE BREEZE IS
SEEN ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA INCHING WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS. WITH THE DEEP MIXING THAT HAS OCCURRED OVER LAND...THAT
WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE LAKE BREEZE TO FLUCTUATE SOME IN SPEED.
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE
IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE EXTREME LOW-LEVEL DRYNESS WILL
INITIALLY PREVENT RADAR ECHOES FROM MATERIALIZING AS RAIN SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON OVER CHICAGO AIRPORTS...THOUGH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN WILL LIKELY BE SEEN NEAR OR AT RFD LATER TODAY. AFTER
DARK...AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...LIGHT SHOWERS MAY MOVE NEAR/OVER THE CHICAGOLAND TAF
SITES.
THE PRIMARY PERIOD OF RAIN CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE SATURDAY
THOUGH HAVE SLOWED THE ONSET TIME IN THE FORECAST UNTIL THE
PROJECTED STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES. THIS LOOKS TO BE MID TO LATE
MORNING. IFR CIGS AND AT LEAST TEMPORARY VISIBILITY OF 3SM OR
LOWER CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE MODERATE RAIN. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TIME GIVEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN WINDS.
* LOW-MEDIUM IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH MID-EVENING.
HIGH THAT IF ANY SHOWERS OCCUR THEY WILL BE LIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.
* HIGH IN IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN ON SATURDAY. MEDIUM IN TIMING.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR WITH PRIMARILY NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
215 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION HAS SET
UP GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. THE
LIGHT WINDS REGIME AND LAND-LAKE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING HAS SET UP A
LAKE BREEZE WITH NEARSHORE WINDS TAKING AN ONSHORE ORIENTATION
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT...LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE EAST TO NWRN
MO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND EAST
FROM THE LOW ACROSS CNTRL IL/IN...WITH WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY BY
LATE TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AS THE LOW TRACKS EWD...KEEPING WINDS OVER THE LAKE
ELY. AS THE LOW PASSES SOUTH OF THE LAKE AND A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES...WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 25-30 KT OVER THE
SRN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. AS THE LOW PASSES EAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL BACK TO
NORTHERLY. WHILE GALES ARE NOT LIKELY...WINDS OVER THE SRN
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO REQUIRE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AND EVEN THOUGH WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS WITH THE SHIFT TO NORTHERLY...THE LONG FETCH
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WAVES INTO
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE BY
TUESDAY MORNING AND REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK...SETTING A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS OVER
THE LAKE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
324 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...
323 PM CDT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH FAIRLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND ASSOCIATED RAIN
AND AMOUNTS.
DRY AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH
GRADUAL MOISTENING FROM BONE DRY CONDITIONS EARLIER TODAY THAT
WERE AMONGST DRIEST IN ENTIRE COUNTRY. W/V IMAGERY SHOWS SHORT
WAVE/MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX INTO EASTERN IA THAT IS RESULTING IN
OCCASIONAL VERY LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES REACHING THE GROUND DESPITE
LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. SUSPECT THAT HRRR MODEL IS TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH HIGHER REFLECTIVITY/RAIN REACHING THE GROUND SOUTH
OF I-88 OR SO AND FOCUS FOR MOST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE IN FAR NORTHERN CWA.
LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...AREA WILL BE IN BROAD
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT BUT ALSO LACKING FOCUS FOR PRECIP WITH
MIDLEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD. SUSPECT THAT THERE WILL BE SEVERAL
MAINLY DRY HOURS WITH PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. THEN MAIN
WAVE WILL START TO SPREAD IN FROM SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AS CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MIGRATES
ACROSS LOWER MO VALLEY. PRECIP WILL BE FIGHTING DRY EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST CWA...BUT THEN AS 700 MB FGEN
STRENGTHENS AND TROWAL LIKE FEATURE SPREADS ~1 TO ~1.25 INCH PWATS
ACROSS AREA...EXPECTING MID-LATE SATURDAY AM TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY
PERIODS OF RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS AND STEADY TO EVEN BRIEFLY HEAVY
RATES. VERY MINIMAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT WELL
SOUTH OF I-80...SO HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT EMBEDDED THUNDER CHANCES
THERE. STILL HAVE HIGH END LIKELY TO CAT POPS IN LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM NORTH SHOULD REDUCE
RATES...WITH PRECIP QUICKLY SHIFTING SOUTH DURING EVENING AND
SKIES CLEARING TOWARD EARLY SUNDAY.
RAIN AMOUNTS FROM MAIN SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
SHOULD RANGE FROM ABOUT 1/2 INCH IN FAR NORTHEAST TO A BIT UPWARDS
OF ONE INCH IN SOUTHWEST 1/4 TO 1/3 OF CWA. CONFIDENCE IN LOW-
MEDIUM IN THESE AMOUNTS GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR BANDING PLACEMENT TO
SHIFT.
REGARDING TEMPS...INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FALL TONIGHT...SO
GENERALLY IN 40S TONIGHT EXCEPT UPPER 30S NEAR LAKE COUNTY SHORE.
CLOUDS...RAIN AND GUSTY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL MAKE FOR RAW
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AND HIGHS ONLY RECOVERING TO THE LOW/MID
40S TO LOWER 50S...COOLEST ON ILLINOIS SHORE AND WARMEST SOUTH OF
I-80. TEMPS WILL THEN DIP BACK TO THE 30S BY EARLY SUNDAY WITH H8
TEMPS FALLING TO JUST BELOW 0 CELSIUS. EXPECTING SOME NORTHERN
INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO DIP TO AROUND FREEZING. OVERALL IT WILL BE
ANOTHER NIGHT TO PROTECT COLD SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
RC
&&
.LONG TERM...
323 PM CDT
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KT GRADUALLY INCREASING LATER
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
* SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT LEAST NEARBY THROUGH 03Z OR SO.
* RAIN SPREADING OVER DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING ON SATURDAY
WITH IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING A FEW HOURS AFTER ONSET.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION
AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS. ON THE LOCAL SCALE...A LAKE BREEZE IS
SEEN ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA INCHING WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS. WITH THE DEEP MIXING THAT HAS OCCURRED OVER LAND...THAT
WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE LAKE BREEZE TO FLUCTUATE SOME IN SPEED.
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE
IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE EXTREME LOW-LEVEL DRYNESS WILL
INITIALLY PREVENT RADAR ECHOES FROM MATERIALIZING AS RAIN SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON OVER CHICAGO AIRPORTS...THOUGH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN WILL LIKELY BE SEEN NEAR OR AT RFD LATER TODAY. AFTER
DARK...AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...LIGHT SHOWERS MAY MOVE NEAR/OVER THE CHICAGOLAND TAF
SITES.
THE PRIMARY PERIOD OF RAIN CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE SATURDAY
THOUGH HAVE SLOWED THE ONSET TIME IN THE FORECAST UNTIL THE
PROJECTED STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES. THIS LOOKS TO BE MID TO LATE
MORNING. IFR CIGS AND AT LEAST TEMPORARY VISIBILITY OF 3SM OR
LOWER CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE MODERATE RAIN. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TIME GIVEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN WINDS.
* LOW-MEDIUM IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH MID-EVENING.
HIGH THAT IF ANY SHOWERS OCCUR THEY WILL BE LIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.
* HIGH IN IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN ON SATURDAY. MEDIUM IN TIMING.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR WITH PRIMARILY NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
215 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION HAS SET
UP GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. THE
LIGHT WINDS REGIME AND LAND-LAKE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING HAS SET UP A
LAKE BREEZE WITH NEARSHORE WINDS TAKING AN ONSHORE ORIENTATION
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT...LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE EAST TO NWRN
MO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND EAST
FROM THE LOW ACROSS CNTRL IL/IN...WITH WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY BY
LATE TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AS THE LOW TRACKS EWD...KEEPING WINDS OVER THE LAKE
ELY. AS THE LOW PASSES SOUTH OF THE LAKE AND A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES...WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 25-30 KT OVER THE
SRN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. AS THE LOW PASSES EAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL BACK TO
NORTHERLY. WHILE GALES ARE NOT LIKELY...WINDS OVER THE SRN
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO REQUIRE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AND EVEN THOUGH WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS WITH THE SHIFT TO NORTHERLY...THE LONG FETCH
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WAVES INTO
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE BY
TUESDAY MORNING AND REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK...SETTING A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS OVER
THE LAKE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
435 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015
AT 1PM MDT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOWED PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE TRI
STATE AREA WEST OF HIGHWAY 83...WITH LOWER BROKEN TO OVERCAST
CONDITIONS EAST OF THE HIGHWAY AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ON RADAR
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG A TROUGH/DRY LINE IN EASTERN COLORADO.
RAP AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BEGINNING TO TAKE A NEGATIVE TILT INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHER
HIGH PLAINS.
THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING CONVECTIVE INITIATION AT
20Z...ALTHOUGH CELLS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. NMM AND ARW
GUIDANCE IS ALSO A BIT BEHIND REALITY WITH HAVING CONVECTION DEVELOP
BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. 0-1 KM AND 0-3 KM HELICITY WAS NOT IMPRESSIVE
WITH WIDESPREAD VALUES UNDER 50 FOR THE FORECAST AREA...SO NOT
EXPECTING TORNADOES TO BE A WIDESPREAD THREAT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DEVELOPING STORMS. HOWEVER...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR APPROACHING 35-40 KTS
ACROSS THE AREA IN COMBINATION WITH 1500 J/KG OF CAPE SUGGESTS A
LARGE HAIL THREAT. WITH DCAPE VALUES MOSTLY BETWEEN 400 AND 500
J/KG...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS FROM STORMS IS POSSIBLE...BUT
EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO PRIMARILY HAVE A LARGE
HAIL THREAT. STORMS WILL GET GOING BY MID AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH
THE EVENING.
CLOUD COVER WILL BE PRESENT LATE THIS EVENING DUE TO A STEADY STREAM
OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO FORM ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING DRIER AIR
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT TOMORROW WITH THE SHORTWAVE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH DRY
WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER TROUGH WITH A CUT OFF LOW
FEATURE MOVES INTO THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND BRINGS CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE SOME LOCATIONS WITH CAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 700 J/KG AND 0-6 BULK SHEAR APPROACHING 35 KTS...HOWEVER
FORECAST AREAS IN MODELS DO NOT NECESSARILY LINE UP.
THEREFORE...NOT EXPECTING A WIDE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL
EXIST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015
SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF JUST SOUTH
OF FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
THE CWA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND STALL SOUTH AND WEST OF
OUR CWA. SOUTHERLY THEN EASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING VERY GOOD MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO OUR CWA AS THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES EAST WITH
OVERRUNNING NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE WHERE ELEVATED
FRONT/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE. BETTER PRECIP
SIGNAL IS CURRENTLY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE CWA...WHERE I CONTINUED TREND
OF RAISING POPS. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE LIGHT PRECIP
PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO ADVECT SOUTH AND SUBSIDENCE BUILDS SOUTHWEST MONDAY.
IF CURRENT SIGNAL/TREND CONTINUE I COULD SEE RAISING POPS TO
CATEGORICAL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND TO LIKELY CATEGORY
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WHILE 40KM GUIDANCE SHOWS QPF AS FAR
EAST AS NORTON/GRAHAM THROUGH THESE PERIODS...PATTERN TENDS TO FAVOR
AREAS CLOSER TO FRONTAL ZONE/HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO...SO I
KEPT LOWERS POPS NORTHEAST/EAST. IN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
THICK STRATUS/LIKELY PRECIPITATION HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AND I
CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWER HIGHS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS
MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 40S IN SOME AREAS.
MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...THERE IS A SECONDARY H3 JET ROTATING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH...AND THIS COULD
BRING ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT SHOWERS....OTHERWISE LARGE SCALE
RIDGING WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND BACK TO THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
NEXT FRIDAY (80S) AS LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS. WHILE THERE ISN`T A
LOT OF AGREEMENT AT THIS RANGE THE PATTERN DOES SUPPORT POSSIBLE
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
IN COLORADO MOVING EAST INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA...SO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT IN PLACE FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 430 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015
KGLD...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THROUGH 01Z OR 02Z WINDS GENERALLY
FROM THE NORTHEAST 5-10KTS BUT WITH VARIOUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM THUNDERSTORMS ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. 02Z-14Z WINDS
FROM THE WEST NEAR 10KTS WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS EXPECTED. 14Z-18Z
WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 12KTS WITH SKC CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. 18Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD WINDS CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE NORTH (18Z) THEN NORTHEAST (22Z) AT 11KTS OR LESS. MAY
SEE A FEW CU DEVELOP AROUND 18Z BUT MORE LIKELY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 05Z WINDS
VARIABLE WINDS 6KTS OR LESS. 06Z-15Z MODELS HINT AT SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A
SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK. FOR NOW HAVE A SCATTERED DECK. WINDS
BECOMING NORTHWEST 5-10KTS. 16Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD
AM EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS TO VEER TO THE NORTHEAST THEN EAST-
NORTHEAST UNDER 10KTS. SHOULD SEE A BROKEN DECK OF CLOUDS AROUND
4K FT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
203 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015
AT 1PM MDT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOWED PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE TRI
STATE AREA WEST OF HIGHWAY 83...WITH LOWER BROKEN TO OVERCAST
CONDITIONS EAST OF THE HIGHWAY AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ON RADAR
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG A TROUGH/DRY LINE IN EASTERN COLORADO.
RAP AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BEGINNING TO TAKE A NEGATIVE TILT INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHER
HIGH PLAINS.
THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING CONVECTIVE INITIATION AT
20Z...ALTHOUGH CELLS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. NMM AND ARW
GUIDANCE IS ALSO A BIT BEHIND REALITY WITH HAVING CONVECTION DEVELOP
BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. 0-1 KM AND 0-3 KM HELICITY WAS NOT IMPRESSIVE
WITH WIDESPREAD VALUES UNDER 50 FOR THE FORECAST AREA...SO NOT
EXPECTING TORNADOES TO BE A WIDESPREAD THREAT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DEVELOPING STORMS. HOWEVER...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR APPROACHING 35-40 KTS
ACROSS THE AREA IN COMBINATION WITH 1500 J/KG OF CAPE SUGGESTS A
LARGE HAIL THREAT. WITH DCAPE VALUES MOSTLY BETWEEN 400 AND 500
J/KG...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS FROM STORMS IS POSSIBLE...BUT
EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO PRIMARILY HAVE A LARGE
HAIL THREAT. STORMS WILL GET GOING BY MID AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH
THE EVENING.
CLOUD COVER WILL BE PRESENT LATE THIS EVENING DUE TO A STEADY STREAM
OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO FORM ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING DRIER AIR
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT TOMORROW WITH THE SHORTWAVE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH DRY
WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER TROUGH WITH A CUT OFF LOW
FEATURE MOVES INTO THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND BRINGS CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE SOME LOCATIONS WITH CAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 700 J/KG AND 0-6 BULK SHEAR APPROACHING 35 KTS...HOWEVER
FORECAST AREAS IN MODELS DO NOT NECESSARILY LINE UP.
THEREFORE...NOT EXPECTING A WIDE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL
EXIST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015
SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF JUST SOUTH
OF FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
THE CWA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND STALL SOUTH AND WEST OF
OUR CWA. SOUTHERLY THEN EASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING VERY GOOD MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO OUR CWA AS THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES EAST WITH
OVERRUNNING NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE WHERE ELEVATED
FRONT/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE. BETTER PRECIP
SIGNAL IS CURRENTLY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE CWA...WHERE I CONTINUED TREND
OF RAISING POPS. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE LIGHT PRECIP
PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO ADVECT SOUTH AND SUBSIDENCE BUILDS SOUTHWEST MONDAY.
IF CURRENT SIGNAL/TREND CONTINUE I COULD SEE RAISING POPS TO
CATEGORICAL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND TO LIKELY CATEGORY
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WHILE 40KM GUIDANCE SHOWS QPF AS FAR
EAST AS NORTON/GRAHAM THROUGH THESE PERIODS...PATTERN TENDS TO FAVOR
AREAS CLOSER TO FRONTAL ZONE/HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO...SO I
KEPT LOWERS POPS NORTHEAST/EAST. IN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
THICK STRATUS/LIKELY PRECIPITATION HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AND I
CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWER HIGHS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS
MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 40S IN SOME AREAS.
MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...THERE IS A SECONDARY H3 JET ROTATING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH...AND THIS COULD
BRING ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT SHOWERS....OTHERWISE LARGE SCALE
RIDGING WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND BACK TO THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
NEXT FRIDAY (80S) AS LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS. WHILE THERE ISN`T A
LOT OF AGREEMENT AT THIS RANGE THE PATTERN DOES SUPPORT POSSIBLE
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
IN COLORADO MOVING EAST INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA...SO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT IN PLACE FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015
IN THE IMMEDIATE TERM FOR KMCK...A PESKY LAYER OF MVFR OVERCAST
SKIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LOWER CEILINGS
SHOULD IMPROVE MY MID AFTERNOON.
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. DUE
TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORMS...ONLY PUT
VCTS MENTION IN THE FORECAST. OVERCAST SKIES WILL BE PRESENT
OVERNIGHT UNTIL THE MORNING HOURS WHEN SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR BOTH KMCK AND KGLD OVERNIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
111 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
THE SHORT-FUSE SEVERE WEATHER COMPOSITE AT MIDDAY WAS SHOWING A
THREAT AREA STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SLOWLY NORTHWARD ADVANCING
WARM FRONT ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS. SURFACE-BASED CAPE WAS
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG PER LAPS ANALYSIS AS OF 16Z. A SYNOPTIC DRY
INTRUSION/DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD, SHUNTING
THE SURFACE-BASED INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS UP TOWARD THE
I-70 CORRIDOR. BY 21Z, THE HRRR INDICATES DEEP MOIST CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE WARM FRONT BY 20-21Z. THERE SHOULD BE PRETTY
GOOD LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE FRONT WITH AMPLE STREAMWISE VORTICITY
TO INGEST INTO AN INCIPIENT SUPERCELL STORM. THE HRRR HAS SHOWN A
PERSISTENT LONG-TRACK UPDRAFT HELICITY SIGNAL, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A
FAIRLY LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM. IT CERTAINLY APPEARS THE
BEST TORNADO THREAT WILL BE UP ALONG THE FRONT ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR, WITH THE MOST VIGOROUS SURFACE-BASED STORMS EXITING OUR
AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (EAST OF ELLIS AND RUSH COUNTY) BY AS SOON AS
23Z. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE BENT-BACK REGION OF ENHANCED
CAPE/MOISTURE WESTWARD ALONG I-70 FOR FUTURE GROWTH OF DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION AS SOME OF THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN RISK ALONG THE FRONT UP THERE
SHOULD THE HRRR PAN OUT. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE
SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION BY LATE EVENING WITH SOME WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
MOMENTUM FINALLY PUSHING INTO OUR REGION ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
BY THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE BE
DEEPENING OVER THE WESTERN STATES THANKS TO A 120+ KNOT JET LOCATED
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
AND CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER NEW MEXICO ON SUNDAY BEFORE
MOVING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE TROUGH
AND LOW DEVELOP, LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL DROP SOUTH
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WHILE A COOL FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT. COOL AND MOIST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO CLOUDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN HOLDING ON TO THEIR RESPECTIVE
SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES OUT
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE FARTHEST NORTH WITH
ITS TRACK ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH OKLAHOMA INTO MISSOURI.
THIS MODEL IS SHOWING DECENT RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS TRACK THE UPPER
LOW OUT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS AND HAVE THE
BEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER. THE CURRENT FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY LOOKS
REASONABLE WITH LIKELY POPS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER THAT DIMINISH
FARTHER NORTH AND HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.
GIVEN THE CLOUDY, COOL AND MOIST CONDITIONS THAT DEVELOP, HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S
IN MANY LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD SEE DRIER AND WARMER
WEATHER RETURNING AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
HYS TERMINAL, WHERE WE WILL GO WITH A 2-HR TEMPO GROUP OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING HAIL, WITH FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE BASED ON RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY FROM THE HRRR MODEL OF A
SUPERCELL ALONG THE WARM FRONT. AT GCK AND DDC, THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY ANY TIME AFTER 21Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH MID-
EVENING, WITH THE PRECIPITATION MODE BECOMING MORE SHOWERY BY MID TO
LATE EVENING PRIOR TO ENDING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 50 79 48 62 / 60 10 10 20
GCK 48 78 48 57 / 40 10 10 30
EHA 48 79 47 68 / 20 10 10 30
LBL 49 81 48 68 / 40 10 10 30
HYS 51 73 46 58 / 60 10 20 20
P28 53 81 52 68 / 40 10 10 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1235 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
THE SHORT-FUSE SEVERE WEATHER COMPOSITE AT MIDDAY WAS SHOWING A
THREAT AREA STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SLOWLY NORTHWARD ADVANCING
WARM FRONT ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS. SURFACE-BASED CAPE WAS
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG PER LAPS ANALYSIS AS OF 16Z. A SYNOPTIC DRY
INTRUSION/DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD, SHUNTING
THE SURFACE-BASED INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS UP TOWARD THE
I-70 CORRIDOR. BY 21Z, THE HRRR INDICATES DEEP MOIST CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE WARM FRONT BY 20-21Z. THERE SHOULD BE PRETTY
GOOD LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE FRONT WITH AMPLE STREAMWISE VORTICITY
TO INGEST INTO AN INCIPIENT SUPERCELL STORM. THE HRRR HAS SHOWN A
PERSISTENT LONG-TRACK UPDRAFT HELICITY SIGNAL, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A
FAIRLY LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM. IT CERTAINLY APPEARS THE
BEST TORNADO THREAT WILL BE UP ALONG THE FRONT ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR, WITH THE MOST VIGOROUS SURFACE-BASED STORMS EXITING OUR
AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (EAST OF ELLIS AND RUSH COUNTY) BY AS SOON AS
23Z. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE BENT-BACK REGION OF ENHANCED
CAPE/MOISTURE WESTWARD ALONG I-70 FOR FUTURE GROWTH OF DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION AS SOME OF THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN RISK ALONG THE FRONT UP THERE
SHOULD THE HRRR PAN OUT. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE
SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION BY LATE EVENING WITH SOME WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
MOMENTUM FINALLY PUSHING INTO OUR REGION ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
RIDGE AXIS CROSSING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEKEND AS
A SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. DESPITE
A COLD FRONT CROSSING WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY THE 850MB
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
MID 70S IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE LOWER 80S
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY A MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS A DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE, ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DIFULENT FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY CONTINUES TO SUPPORT IMPROVING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
ROUGHLY A GARDEN CITY TO LARNED LINE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
MONDAY IF THE TRACK OF THIS UPPER LOW REMAINS UNCHANGED. CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY COULD EASILY RESULT IN
HIGHS STRUGGLING TO CLIMB MUCH HIGHER THE LOW TO MID 50S NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER.
FROM LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO
CROSS FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE OKLAHOMA BORDER LATE MONDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS
BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP AS COOLER AIR RETURNS TO
WESTERN KANSAS. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL THEN CROSS WESTERN
KANSAS MID WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW THE
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN
BEGIN LATE WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
HYS TERMINAL, WHERE WE WILL GO WITH A 2-HR TEMPO GROUP OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING HAIL, WITH FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE BASED ON RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY FROM THE HRRR MODEL OF A
SUPERCELL ALONG THE WARM FRONT. AT GCK AND DDC, THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY ANY TIME AFTER 21Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH MID-
EVENING, WITH THE PRECIPITATION MODE BECOMING MORE SHOWERY BY MID TO
LATE EVENING PRIOR TO ENDING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 81 50 79 48 / 50 60 10 10
GCK 77 48 78 48 / 60 40 10 10
EHA 76 48 79 47 / 30 20 10 10
LBL 80 49 81 48 / 40 40 10 10
HYS 73 51 73 46 / 70 60 10 20
P28 82 53 81 52 / 10 40 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
620 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
A SHARP INCREASE IN SURFACE MOISTURE SHOULD BE NOTICED ACROSS
WESTERN KS AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LEE SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM
EASTERN CO TO NORTHEAST KS BY LATER TONIGHT. THIS INCREASED SURFACE
MOISTURE MIGHT LEAD TO A FEW AREAS OF DRIZZLE AS THE MODELS INDICATE
THIS MORNING, BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY CONTRIBUTE TO MUCH HIGHER
SURFACE BASED CAPES BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A DRYLINE WILL BE
PRESENT TO AID IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS EARLY AS THE 18 TO 20 UTC
TIMEFRAME.
WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE THREATS, HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AT
LEAST EARLY IN THE EVENT. A TORNADO RISK IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY GIVEN
THE DEEP SHEAR AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/HIGH SURFACE DEW
POINTS. THE PARALLEL FLOW TO THE BOUNDARY MIGHT SUGGEST LONG TRACK
TORNADOES AREA NOT LIKELY, BUT BRIEF TORNADOES THE MORE LIKELY
SCENARIO. ISOLATED, DISCREET STORMS SHOULD BEGIN THE EVENT ALONG THE
DRYLINE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL; EASILY IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH
RANGE, AND POTENTIALLY EVEN HIGHER. THE LATEST 4 KM NAM CONVECTIVE
SCHEME SUGGESTED THE MORE DISCREET STORMS MORPHING INTO CLUSTER OR
SMALL LINES IN CENTRAL KANSAS BY THE EVENING, SUGGESTING POSSIBILITY
FOR NOT ONLY SEVERE OUTFLOW, BUT HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
THE UPPER LOW WILL BECOME STACKED SOMEWHERE NEAR KANSAS CITY BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, LEAVING WESTERN KANSAS IN A DEEP
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH LIGHT WEST SURFACE WINDS. NEGATIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS SHOULD PROMOTE CLEARING SKIES
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
RIDGE AXIS CROSSING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEKEND AS
A SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. DESPITE
A COLD FRONT CROSSING WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY THE 850MB
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
MID 70S IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE LOWER 80S
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY A MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS A DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE, ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DIFULENT FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY CONTINUES TO SUPPORT IMPROVING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
ROUGHLY A GARDEN CITY TO LARNED LINE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
MONDAY IF THE TRACK OF THIS UPPER LOW REMAINS UNCHANGED. CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY COULD EASILY RESULT IN
HIGHS STRUGGLING TO CLIMB MUCH HIGHER THE LOW TO MID 50S NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER.
FROM LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO
CROSS FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE OKLAHOMA BORDER LATE MONDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS
BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP AS COOLER AIR RETURNS TO
WESTERN KANSAS. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL THEN CROSS WESTERN
KANSAS MID WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW THE
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN
BEGIN LATE WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
A MOIST UPSLOPE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS DURING THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BASED ON THE 06Z NAM AND THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP
THE IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF MVFR FOG WILL ERODE BETWEEN 13Z
AND 16Z AT GCK AND DDC. HYS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE STATUS AND
PATCHY FOG UNTIL AROUND 17Z FRIDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE FROM DDC NORTH AND EAST AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. GIVEN THE HIGHER
PROBABILITY FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AT DDC AND HYS WILL INSERT
A PREVAILING PERIOD OF VCTS IN THIS LOCATION. TONIGHT SKIES WILL
CLEAR AS SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS
MOVES INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 81 50 79 48 / 50 10 10 10
GCK 77 48 78 48 / 40 10 10 10
EHA 76 48 79 47 / 30 10 10 10
LBL 80 49 81 48 / 30 10 10 10
HYS 73 51 73 46 / 60 50 10 20
P28 82 53 81 52 / 40 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
353 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
Upper trough was located over Arizona this morning at 08Z while a
weak low pressure tough was located in the lee of the Rockies. Water
Vapor loop shows a fetch of moisture extending from the eastern
Pacific into the the Central Plains this morning. Low level jet was
advecting moisture northward across central Kansas with dew points
in the 50s. Expect an increase in low level moisture through the
morning hours with low level jet veering to the south southwest.
Models are in agreement with the progression of the upper trough
into the western Kansas by 00Z then ejecting northeast into
northeast Kansas tonight increasing forcing for ascent this evening
for convection. The surface low follows a similar track from
southwest Kansas into north central and northeast Kansas by late
evening. a dry line front will extend south from the low with a warm
front lifting northward across the area with much of the area south
of I-70 in the warm sector. Initial showers with isolated
thunderstorms are possible this morning on the nose of the
warm/moisture advection and isentropic lift. Expect a period of
little activity from late morning through mid/late afternoon. Later
this afternoon expect showers and thunderstorms to develop out in
southwest Kansas and into central Kansas then spreading northeast
through the evening hours. All of northeast Kansas will have a
chance for severe weather from late afternoon into the overnight
hours. All modes of severe weather will be possible with large hail,
damaging winds and a few tornadoes possible. Soundings show storms
remaining surfaced based through much of the evening hours, with
backed low level winds and 0-1km helicity of 200-300 m^2/s^2 in the
warm sector as well as along the warm front so the tornado threat
will likely continue after dark. Threat of storms will diminish
gradually after midnight with the passage of the upper trough. Highs
today will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s. Lows tonight in the
50s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
Upper trough`s exit across northern Missouri brings a gradual end
to precip Saturday. Cold air advection on north to northeast
winds behind the system brings a modest boundary south through the
area in the afternoon, though meager moisture and rising heights
preclude any mention of convection. Weak high pressure to the
north and a deepening low over the Southwest keeps east winds in
place for Sunday. Cloud cover looks rather prevalent for the
morning but mixing deep enough to still realize highs in the lower
60s. Still appears the upstream system will stay south of the area
into the work week, but at this point will keep small PoPs in the
south Sunday night into Monday night. Western ConUS/Rockies
ridging dominates conditions through the end of the forecast for
high confidence in dry weather. Main challenge should be
temperatures with still some influence of eastern Canadian trough
not far away, but moderation is likely for at least Tuesday and
Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015
Forecast seems to be on track, so there are not a lot of changes
to the prev forecast. Still looks like there is a chance for
elevated showers and thunderstorms with it being tough to pin
point timing and location. Therefore continue with VCTS. There is
a little more uncertainty in how long MVFR CIGS hang in through
the day Friday. With the RAP starting to show similar solutions to
the NAM, have held onto the CIGS into the afternoon. Don`t have
much confidence in the MOS guidance indicating IFR CIGS, but it is
not out of the question. As for stronger storms, models have the
best forcing moving through between 00Z and 06Z. TS coverage may
end up being more scattered, but feel PROBs are good enough to
include a TEMPO. There will likely need to be refinements to the
forecast as the weather moves in.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
258 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015
FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM CENTER AROUND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STORMS.
THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN
KANSAS WAS BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON. A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO WAS ALSO PROVIDING SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND TRIGGERING
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 30- 40 KNOTS
OF SHEAR IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER BUT ABOVE THIS LAYER, STRONGER SHEAR
WAS IN PLACE IN THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET. THE STORMS
OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME
ROTATING SUPERCELLS. GIVEN THE STRONG EVACUATION ALOFT, LARGE HAIL
WILL BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY. THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT
WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS AROUND JOHNSON AND
SYRACUSE AND POINTS NORTH THIS EVENING AROUND 23Z-01Z AND HAVE
KEPT THE BEST CHANCES IN THAT AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE
NIGHT CONTINUES, AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS AS A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
ALONG WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX MOVES
OVER THE AREA. THE MODELS ALSO SHOW INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE
850 MILLIBAR LEVEL WHICH COULD ALSO HELP SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS SHOULD BE ALONG AND/OR NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50 AND 156. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT AFTER DARK BUT CAN`T RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
ELEVATED HAILERS. CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT
AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
ON FRIDAY, THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MODELS DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST FROM THE LOW. BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THE LOW WILL BE PROGRESSING EAST WHILE A DRYLINE PUSHES
EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE UPPER LEVEL
JET PROPAGATES EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE 18Z MODELS ARE NOW LOOKING
LESS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL AS THE BETTER 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL
BE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE DODGE CITY CWFA DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH SOME GOOD INSTABILITY OVER THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA, THERE WILL STILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SEVERE STORMS AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
RIDGE AXIS CROSSING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEKEND AS
A SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. DESPITE
A COLD FRONT CROSSING WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY THE 850MB
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
MID 70S IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE LOWER 80S
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY A MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS A DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE, ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DIFULENT FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY CONTINUES TO SUPPORT IMPROVING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
ROUGHLY A GARDEN CITY TO LARNED LINE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
MONDAY IF THE TRACK OF THIS UPPER LOW REMAINS UNCHANGED. CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY COULD EASILY RESULT IN
HIGHS STRUGGLING TO CLIMB MUCH HIGHER THE LOW TO MID 50S NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER.
FROM LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO
CROSS FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE OKLAHOMA BORDER LATE MONDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS
BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP AS COOLER AIR RETURNS TO
WESTERN KANSAS. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL THEN CROSS WESTERN
KANSAS MID WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW THE
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN
BEGIN LATE WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
IFR/LIFR STRATUS WILL IMPACT AREA TERMINALS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING,
WITH POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BR, AS SURFACE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS MAXIMIZED AHEAD OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LEE LOW.
SCATTERED CONVECTION BECOMES AN IMPACT IN THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SEVERE STORMS THE LARGE HAIL (2 TO 3
INCH DIAMETER) AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY ROTATING
UPDRAFTS MAINLY AFFECTING THE HAYS AND DODGE CITY TERMINALS AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE DRYLINE IN THE MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 81 49 78 47 / 20 20 10 10
GCK 77 48 77 47 / 20 20 10 20
EHA 76 47 79 48 / 10 10 10 10
LBL 80 48 81 49 / 10 10 10 10
HYS 73 50 73 45 / 40 40 10 20
P28 82 52 80 50 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...RUSSELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
111 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015
FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM CENTER AROUND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STORMS.
THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN
KANSAS WAS BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON. A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO WAS ALSO PROVIDING SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND TRIGGERING
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 30- 40 KNOTS
OF SHEAR IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER BUT ABOVE THIS LAYER, STRONGER SHEAR
WAS IN PLACE IN THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET. THE STORMS
OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME
ROTATING SUPERCELLS. GIVEN THE STRONG EVACUATION ALOFT, LARGE HAIL
WILL BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY. THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT
WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS AROUND JOHNSON AND
SYRACUSE AND POINTS NORTH THIS EVENING AROUND 23Z-01Z AND HAVE
KEPT THE BEST CHANCES IN THAT AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE
NIGHT CONTINUES, AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS AS A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
ALONG WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX MOVES
OVER THE AREA. THE MODELS ALSO SHOW INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE
850 MILLIBAR LEVEL WHICH COULD ALSO HELP SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS SHOULD BE ALONG AND/OR NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50 AND 156. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT AFTER DARK BUT CAN`T RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
ELEVATED HAILERS. CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT
AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
ON FRIDAY, THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MODELS DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST FROM THE LOW. BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THE LOW WILL BE PROGRESSING EAST WHILE A DRYLINE PUSHES
EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE UPPER LEVEL
JET PROPAGATES EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE 18Z MODELS ARE NOW LOOKING
LESS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL AS THE BETTER 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL
BE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE DODGE CITY CWFA DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH SOME GOOD INSTABILITY OVER THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA, THERE WILL STILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SEVERE STORMS AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE KS/NE BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A SURFACE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA AND
INTO EASTERN KANSAS. A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AS WELL AS AROUND THE I-70 CORRIDOR
IN THE EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES COMING TO AN END
SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE FELT BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MOST OF SATURDAY. SKIES LOOK
TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY SUNRISE SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. WINDS THEN
SHIFT TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. THIS OCCURS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
OPEN WAVE DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SATURDAY, INTENSIFYING
INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNER`S REGION SUNDAY.
MODELS THEN SUGGEST THAT THIS LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER, WITH THIS SYSTEM
BEING MORE THAN 4 DAYS OUT TIMING AND POSITION WILL MOST LIKELY
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS
PREDICT THIS FEATURE TO MOVE FARTHER NORTH, THE CWA COULD SEE SOME
BENEFICIAL RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. NEVERTHELESS, HIGH
CLOUDS LOOK INCREASE IN COVERAGE SUNDAY AS THIS FEATURE MOVES
CLOSER TO THE AREA WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEING THE DOMINATING FACTOR AT THE
SURFACE. THIS WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS TO WESTERN KANSAS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE LOWER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT WHERE UPPER 30S COULD BE POSSIBLE. HIGHS LOOK
TO BE IN THE 70S WITH A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER REACHING
INTO THE LOWER 80S SATURDAY THEN DECREASE INTO THE 60S SUNDAY. THE
COLDEST DAY OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. HIGHS ARE
FORECASTED TO REACH INTO THE MID 60S TUESDAY WITH 70S POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING LOOK TO DIP INTO
THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
IFR/LIFR STRATUS WILL IMPACT AREA TERMINALS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING,
WITH POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BR, AS SURFACE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS MAXIMIZED AHEAD OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LEE LOW.
SCATTERED CONVECTION BECOMES AN IMPACT IN THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SEVERE STORMS THE LARGE HAIL (2 TO 3
INCH DIAMETER) AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY ROTATING
UPDRAFTS MAINLY AFFECTING THE HAYS AND DODGE CITY TERMINALS AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE DRYLINE IN THE MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 81 49 78 47 / 20 20 10 10
GCK 77 48 77 47 / 20 20 10 20
EHA 76 47 79 48 / 10 10 10 10
LBL 80 48 81 49 / 10 10 10 10
HYS 73 50 73 45 / 40 40 10 20
P28 82 52 80 50 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...RUSSELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1142 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2015
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015
A mid-level ridge was in place over the Central and Southern Plains
today with a mid-level trough progressing eastward across the
northeastern U.S. and another trough noted just north of the Baja
Peninsula. At the surface, southeasterly winds prevailed as high
pressure remained stationed just east of the forecast area. This
southeasterly flow helped to keep a low/mid cloud deck in place
across much of the region today, limiting the daytime heating.
However, visible satellite imagery showed more breaks in the cloud
cover near the Kansas/Nebraska border, resulting in afternoon
temperatures reaching into the middle 60s. Further south in
locations with more persistent cloud cover afternoon temperatures
struggled to reach near 60 degrees.
The mid-level trough north of the Baja Peninsula will lift
northeastward toward the Four Corners region overnight and progress
north of the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles Friday afternoon, which will
help to provide ample mid-level support for thunderstorm activity
late Friday afternoon through Friday evening. Ahead of this
advancing trough, water vapor imagery this afternoon showed a few
weak embedded shortwaves developing along the lee-side of the trough
over Wyoming and Colorado with increased cloud cover noted over that
region. Models show these weak waves shifting eastward with the
eastward progression of the trough, moving into Nebraska and
northern Kansas overnight into Friday morning. In general,
short-range models have trended a bit weaker with the shower and
thunderstorm potential for late tonight through the morning hours as
the region should remain capped and forcing is limited. However,
with MUCAPE values upwards of 500-1000 J/kg and 45-55kts of 0-6km
shear, cannot rule out the potential for a few strong elevated
thunderstorms to develop in which some small hail will be possible.
Short-range models show that the precipitation should be pretty
isolated this evening and become more widely scattered through the
overnight hours before diminishing in coverage from west to east
during the mid to late morning hours. As a result, models suggest
that we could see a window of a few hours from mid/late morning
through early/mid afternoon in which locations are
precipitation-free and, according to some model soundings, may
potentially see some breaks in the cloud cover, especially closer
toward central Kansas. This diminish in cloud cover will allow for
more daytime heating in the afternoon hours to boost temperatures
into the low/mid 70s from central to east central Kansas, with
cooler temperatures in the mid/upper 60s across northeast Kansas
from the lingering cloud cover. However, these high temperatures
will be very dependent upon how quickly the morning precipitation
dissipates and whether or not we are able to diminish the cloud
cover enough during the early/mid afternoon hours, so we will need
to continue to closely monitor these short-term conditions.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015
Friday afternoon into the overnight presents a complicated weather
scenario with a likelihood of severe weather in the area, and a
potential for a few significant severe events.
The primary forecast questions through this period will be 1) How
far north does the warm sector surge? 2) How broad east/west will
the unstable warm sector be? 3) How much and how soon will the
boundary layer stabilize by mid to late evening?
In terms of the questions above, various model guidance are
generally in the same ballpark regarding how far north the warm
sector will surge, but the northern edge of the surface based
instability ranges from somewhere near the Nebraska border (GFS) to
a Council Grove to Lawrence line (NAM/NMM). The rest of guidance is
in between, and frankly the ECMWF rendition of the surface low and
warm front track looks to be quite reasonable, with the warm sector
coming as far north as Minneapolis to Manhattan to Holton line. Most
indications are also that the warm sector will not be particularly
broad east/west, and this *may* be able to limit the potential for
long track severe storms a bit as the individual storm forward speed
(40+ mph) should be faster than the system as a whole, and they
could move toward less unstable air with time. In terms of evening
stabilization, all indications point to an unstable warm sector
airmass through approximately 8-11 PM before becoming increasingly
stable. This is not entirely for sure as the surface low will track
directly across the area after midnight, but it does seem likely
that CINH will increase and the tornado threat decrease by late
evening.
The relative certainties in this forecast are following
1) Thunderstorms will develop and move across the forecast area. 2)
Wind shear parameters are very impressive and will support storm
organization. 3) The combination of steep lapse rates and strong
shear will support large hail (some very large) in storms both north
and south of the front.
The rest of the details are fuzzier but important. Damaging wind
potential does not appear to be a huge threat given low LCL heights,
but the potential for some upscale growth by mid/late evening and
very strong ambient wind fields suggest that a wind threat could
develop. The potential for tornadoes is conditional, but very
present. A worst case scenario would be if cells can remain
semi-discrete or move east of the main cluster of convection as any
isolated supercell in the warm sector would have full access to 30+
KTS of 0-1 km wind shear underneath a strong mid level steering flow
(60 KTS at 500 hPa) and exhaust jet aloft (130 KTS at 250 hPa).
There would seem to be a primary window of opportunity between 6 PM
and 10 PM for tornado potential, especially with any isolated
supercells, as the low level jet rapidly intensifies during this
period but inhibition is slow to increase. The take away message is
that the potential exists for all modes of severe weather, and while
there are complicating factors, it will be important to prepare for
a few significant severe storms.
Precipitation looks to exit the area by sunrise on Saturday. A cold
front will then move into the area from the north on Saturday
afternoon. There will be some weak instability across the area, but
most indications point to a slightly capped boundary layer with weak
forcing along the front so currently have a dry afternoon forecast.
However, if low level moisture is a bit deeper or if temperatures
ahead of the front warm up more than forecast, could possibly see a
storm or two develop.
The remainder of the forecast is rather uneventful. Have maintained
a slight chance for showers early next week as a slow moving closed
upper low drifts across the southern Plains, but for the most part
it looks like precip should remain south of the forecast area.
Temperatures look to be near or slightly below normal for much of
the long term period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015
Forecast seems to be on track, so there are not a lot of changes
to the prev forecast. Still looks like there is a chance for
elevated showers and thunderstorms with it being tough to pin
point timing and location. Therefore continue with VCTS. There is
a little more uncertainty in how long MVFR CIGS hang in through
the day Friday. With the RAP starting to show similar solutions to
the NAM, have held onto the CIGS into the afternoon. Don`t have
much confidence in the MOS guidance indicating IFR CIGS, but it is
not out of the question. As for stronger storms, models have the
best forcing moving through between 00Z and 06Z. TS coverage may
end up being more scattered, but feel PROBs are good enough to
include a TEMPO. There will likely need to be refinements to the
forecast as the weather moves in.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1015 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015
LOW CLOUDS THAT WERE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS CONTINUED TO LINGER FOR SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE TRI STATE
AREA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...HOWEVER
MOST LOCATIONS WERE UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. RAP 500 MB
ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION...HOWEVER A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN REGION WAS MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS.
THE ADVANCING TROUGH WILL BRING SOME POCKETS OF HIGHER POTENTIAL
VORTICITY VALUES ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND CAUSE
STORMS TO DEVELOP. A SURFACE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE WEST ALONG
THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE WILL ALSO PROVIDE THE NEEDED PUSH AT THE
SURFACE TO GET STORMS GOING. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INITIATION
OCCURRING SOMETIME BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH
STORMS GETTING GOING BY 00Z. PROFILE CAPE BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500
J/KG AND BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KTS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
SOME STORMS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...AND DRY MID LEVELS IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS WITH DCAPE BETWEEN 800 AND 1000 J/KG COULD RESULT IN
DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS. THE SHEAR VALUES DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT
CAPE WILL STILL BE PRESENT OVERNIGHT AS STORMS MOVE EASTWARD.
THEREFORE...EXPECTING STORMS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FOR SOME
LOCATIONS.
THE SURFACE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS
THE TRI STATE AREA OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
THE SURFACE AND INCREASED RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OVERNIGHT. AS A
RESULT...FOG WILL DEVELOP AND CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN INCREASED
OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS A
RESULT OF THE BLANKETING CLOUD COVER IN THE UPPER 40S.
FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TOWARD THE EARLY TO MID
MORNING HOURS...BUT CLOUDS WILL RETURN DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS
A SURFACE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE TRI STATE AREA. RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. CAPE VALUES AROUND
1000 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KTS WILL BRING SOME
SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH THE
MAIN ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS ARE WELL EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015
THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ENE AS A CLOSED LOW FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY.
SATURDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE CENTER DIVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. SOUTH OF THE
4-CORNERS REGION DURING BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOW ALOFT MOVES
INTO THE WEST TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING...MOVING
SLOWLY INTO POSITION OVER EAST TEXAS AND EAST OKLAHOMA BY TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE GULF
COAST OF TEXAS.
WITH THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. WELL
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT EXPECT THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION TO STAY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1015 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015
KGLD...STRATUS AND MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT TAF ISSUANCE OR VERY
SHORTLY AFTER WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN THE 07Z-15Z TIMEFRAME
FOR WIDESPREAD IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS TO OCCUR. CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE TO VFR CATEGORY AROUND 18Z-19Z. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THE TERMINAL AROUND 21Z MOVING THROUGH AND OUT OF THE
IMMEDIATE AREA AROUND 00Z WITH ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
LEFTOVER. HAVE MENTIONED VCTS IN THE 21Z-00Z TIMEFRAME BUT SOME OF
THE MODELS SUGGESTING A LITTLE LATER STARTING AND ENDING TIME SO
ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY
12KTS OR LESS...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
KMCK...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT TAF ISSUANCE OR VERY SHORTLY AFTER
WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN THE 08Z-15Z TIMEFRAME FOR
WIDESPREAD IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS TO OCCUR. FOR 16Z-19Z MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEN VFR BY 20Z. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THE TERMINAL AROUND 22Z MOVING THROUGH AND OUT OF THE
IMMEDIATE AREA AROUND 01Z WITH ONLY SOME MID CLOUDS LEFTOVER. HAVE
MENTIONED VCTS IN THE 22Z-01Z TIMEFRAME BUT SOME OF THE MODELS
SUGGESTING A LITTLE LATER STARTING AND ENDING TIME SO ADJUSTMENTS
WILL LIKELY OCCUR. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY UNDER
12KTS...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
627 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
SEVERAL CHALLENGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS PART OF THE PACKAGE.
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
AND SATELLITE SUGGESTS PATCHY MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. SEVERAL SMALL PIECES OF ENERGY HEADED OUR
WAY TODAY. HRRR MODEL PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS LATER THIS MORNING AND THESE ARE SLOWLY
EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
BY TONIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH. CURRENT WATER
VAPOR IMAGES DEPICT MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHEAST OUT OF OLD MEXICO
AND TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
ON SATURDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE ACTION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS AS THE MAIN PRECIP ENDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK UP FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS.
AS THIS HAPPENS, MOST OF THE AREA WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE AS
WIND FIELDS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SPC HAS A MAJORITY OF THE AREA IN AN ENHANCED
RISK AND THIS SEEMS PRUDENT AS CONFIDENCE LEVELS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. VERY FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES SHOULD
ALLOW DEEP CONVECTION TO BEGIN BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. 0-3 KM
BULK SHEAR VECTORS WILL RANGE FROM 35 TO 40 KTS AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER WEST KENTUCKY.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW
TORNADOES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN KENTUCKY.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SUNSHINE ON
SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
SLIGHTLY BETTER FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM.
VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE WEATHER...OR LACK THEREOF...IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD HINGES ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION OF A STORM SYSTEM
FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO TRACK THIS SYSTEM EAST NORTHEASTWARD BRINGING
IT AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THEREBY
AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN
THE SAME TIME FRAME THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN CONTINUE TO TRACK THE
SYSTEM MORE EASTERLY KEEPING ALL PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF OUR CWA. ON
A SIDE NOTE...THE LATEST GFS SOLUTION IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH THAN
IT WAS FORECASTING 24 HOURS AGO. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES WE MAY BE
ABLE TO EVENTUALLY REMOVE CURRENT POPS.
FOR WHATEVER REASON THE SUPERBLEND STILL LEANS MORE TOWARD THE GFS
SOLUTION SO BASICALLY TOOK THE SUPERBLEND POPS AND TONED THEM DOWN A
BIT.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD WARM
READINGS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT THE COVERAGE TO INCREASE WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF OCCURRANCE OVER A TAF SITE AFTER 06Z. MFVR AND
POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...PS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
300 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
SEVERAL CHALLENGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS PART OF THE PACKAGE.
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
AND SATELLITE SUGGESTS PATCHY MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. SEVERAL SMALL PIECES OF ENERGY HEADED OUR
WAY TODAY. HRRR MODEL PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS LATER THIS MORNING AND THESE ARE SLOWLY
EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
BY TONIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH. CURRENT WATER
VAPOR IMAGES DEPICT MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHEAST OUT OF OLD MEXICO
AND TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
ON SATURDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE ACTION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS AS THE MAIN PRECIP ENDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK UP FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS.
AS THIS HAPPENS, MOST OF THE AREA WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE AS
WIND FIELDS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SPC HAS A MAJORITY OF THE AREA IN AN ENHANCED
RISK AND THIS SEEMS PRUDENT AS CONFIDENCE LEVELS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. VERY FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES SHOULD
ALLOW DEEP CONVECTION TO BEGIN BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. 0-3 KM
BULK SHEAR VECTORS WILL RANGE FROM 35 TO 40 KTS AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER WEST KENTUCKY.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW
TORNADOES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN KENTUCKY.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SUNSHINE ON
SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
SLIGHTLY BETTER FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM.
VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE WEATHER...OR LACK THEREOF...IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD HINGES ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION OF A STORM SYSTEM
FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO TRACK THIS SYSTEM EAST NORTHEASTWARD BRINGING
IT AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THEREBY
AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN
THE SAME TIME FRAME THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN CONTINUE TO TRACK THE
SYSTEM MORE EASTERLY KEEPING ALL PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF OUR CWA. ON
A SIDE NOTE...THE LATEST GFS SOLUTION IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH THAN
IT WAS FORECASTING 24 HOURS AGO. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES WE MAY BE
ABLE TO EVENTUALLY REMOVE CURRENT POPS.
FOR WHATEVER REASON THE SUPERBLEND STILL LEANS MORE TOWARD THE GFS
SOLUTION SO BASICALLY TOOK THE SUPERBLEND POPS AND TONED THEM DOWN A
BIT.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD WARM
READINGS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING...AND CEILINGS MAY DESCEND TO NEAR MVFR LEVELS IN THE
EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING...BUT THEY
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE TERMINALS.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
507 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
.UPDATE...
JUST SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH 103 THROUGH
10 PM TONIGHT. STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF A BAROCLINIC
ZONE ORIENTED EAST TO WEST MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR. DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...HAIL...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES POSSIBLE. /05/
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/
DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING A DEEPENING SFC LOW ACROSS SE CO INTO
SW KS WITH A DRYLINE ACROSS THE TX/OK PNDL INTO W TX. A SOUTHEAST
FLANKING WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE SFC LOW AND SNAKED SOUTH
AND EAST INTO CENTRAL OK TO JUST SOUTH OF DFW TO NEAR TYR TO ESF.
THIS WARM FRONT HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE TODAY ACROSS S/CENTRAL LA
BUT HAS SHOWN A GREATER TENDENCY TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS. CLOUD COVER REMAINS VERY
THICK AND ITS THIS CLOUD COVER THAT HAS TEMPERED DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPS TODAY. ITS ALSO THIS CLOUD COVER THAT HAS NOT ALLOWED FOR
MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY. LATEST MESOANALYSIS ONLY SHOWING
CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000J/KG ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE SLOWLY
RETURNING NORTHWARD WARM FRONT.
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM THAT FORMED SOUTH OF OUR AREA EARLIER TODAY
FORMED ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WHICH
IS MEAGER AT BEST...EXISTS OUT WEST WHERE TORNADO WATCH #100 WAS
JUST ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND N TX. THE LATEST WRF
OUTPUT HAS SHOWN A TENDENCY TO LIFT THE WARM FRONT TOO FAR NORTH
AND THUS ITS SOLUTION WAS DISCOUNTED. HAVE INSTEAD GONE WITH A
MODEL BLEND OF THE HRRR FOR THE VERY SHORT TERM...FOLLOWED BY A
GFS/ECMWF BLEND BEYOND TONIGHT. HAVING SAID THAT...THE LATEST HRRR
SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING RAPIDLY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF N TX LATER THIS EVENING WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS
LIKELY EXHIBITING DISCRETE CHARACTERISTICS AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD
INTO OUR NW ZONES. SOME OF THIS STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION COULD
EVENTUALLY MOVE ITS WAY INTO NW LA LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT BUT
THE EVENTUAL STORM MODE SHOULD BE FOR A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION...RAPIDLY
EXPANDING AND SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A THREAT...WITH THE TORNADIC THREAT LIKELY ORIENTED NEAR WHERE THE
WARM FRONT SETS UP LATER THIS EVENING...SOMEWHERE ACROSS NE TX
INTO WEST CENTRAL OR NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.
THE LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTS NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW IN ITS WAKE SETTING UP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MUCH DRIER DAY
ON SATURDAY BUT A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
REGION AS WELL. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AND EVENTUAL SUNSHINE WILL
ALLOW FOR SFC TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 80S ON SAT AS WELL AS
SUN WITH SOME LOCATIONS LIKELY FLIRTING WITH THE 90 DEGREE MARK.
MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN QUICKLY BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS YET ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND CUTS OFF ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS RETURNING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ANOTHER RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH ONLY MAKING SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS INTO CENTRAL OK BY
TUE. THE GOOD NEWS IS BY THIS TIME...WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE DRY
SLOTTING ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE CLOSED LOW WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN DRIER CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS
TO TAKE OVER FROM THE WEST.
PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 102 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/
AVIATION...
MORNING IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS AND PATCHY FOG HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR
OUT ACROSS LA/AR PORTIONS OF AREA. HOWEVER...CIGS HAVE LIFTED TO
VFR ACROSS NE TX...AND BECMG SKC AT KLFK. AS TEMPS WARM TO AOB 80
DEGREES...EXPLOSIVE CONVECTION MAY OCCUR. VERY STG LOW LVL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BRING A THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND
POSSIBLE TORNADOES ACROSS NE TX BY AROUND 24/21-22Z...WITH WARM
FRONT MOVG SLOWLY NWD ACROSS AREA. IN ADDITION...A SLOW MOVG
SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVE...AND BRING STG STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS OVERNIGHT. WITH PASSAGE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH BRINGING
LINE OF STORMS...WINDS BECMG SW 10 TO 20 KTS...AND VFR CONDITIONS
TO RETURN TO AREA BY AROUND 25/15Z.
VII
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 69 89 64 89 / 60 20 0 10
MLU 70 87 66 87 / 60 30 10 10
DEQ 62 86 51 85 / 80 10 0 10
TXK 68 87 60 85 / 80 10 0 10
ELD 68 85 60 84 / 60 20 0 10
TYR 69 89 63 88 / 60 10 0 10
GGG 68 88 63 88 / 60 10 0 10
LFK 70 89 65 89 / 60 30 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
05/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
326 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING A DEEPENING SFC LOW ACROSS SE CO INTO
SW KS WITH A DRYLINE ACROSS THE TX/OK PNDL INTO W TX. A SOUTHEAST
FLANKING WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE SFC LOW AND SNAKED SOUTH
AND EAST INTO CENTRAL OK TO JUST SOUTH OF DFW TO NEAR TYR TO ESF.
THIS WARM FRONT HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE TODAY ACROSS S/CENTRAL LA
BUT HAS SHOWN A GREATER TENDENCY TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS. CLOUD COVER REMAINS VERY
THICK AND ITS THIS CLOUD COVER THAT HAS TEMPERED DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPS TODAY. ITS ALSO THIS CLOUD COVER THAT HAS NOT ALLOWED FOR
MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY. LATEST MESOANALYSIS ONLY SHOWING
CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000J/KG ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE SLOWLY
RETURNING NORTHWARD WARM FRONT.
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM THAT FORMED SOUTH OF OUR AREA EARLIER TODAY
FORMED ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WHICH
IS MEAGER AT BEST...EXISTS OUT WEST WHERE TORNADO WATCH #100 WAS
JUST ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND N TX. THE LATEST WRF
OUTPUT HAS SHOWN A TENDENCY TO LIFT THE WARM FRONT TOO FAR NORTH
AND THUS ITS SOLUTION WAS DISCOUNTED. HAVE INSTEAD GONE WITH A
MODEL BLEND OF THE HRRR FOR THE VERY SHORT TERM...FOLLOWED BY A
GFS/ECMWF BLEND BEYOND TONIGHT. HAVING SAID THAT...THE LATEST HRRR
SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING RAPIDLY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF N TX LATER THIS EVENING WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS
LIKELY EXHIBITING DISCRETE CHARACTERISTICS AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD
INTO OUR NW ZONES. SOME OF THIS STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION COULD
EVENTUALLY MOVE ITS WAY INTO NW LA LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT BUT
THE EVENTUAL STORM MODE SHOULD BE FOR A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION...RAPIDLY
EXPANDING AND SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A THREAT...WITH THE TORNADIC THREAT LIKELY ORIENTED NEAR WHERE THE
WARM FRONT SETS UP LATER THIS EVENING...SOMEWHERE ACROSS NE TX
INTO WEST CENTRAL OR NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.
THE LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTS NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW IN ITS WAKE SETTING UP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MUCH DRIER DAY
ON SATURDAY BUT A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
REGION AS WELL. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AND EVENTUAL SUNSHINE WILL
ALLOW FOR SFC TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 80S ON SAT AS WELL AS
SUN WITH SOME LOCATIONS LIKELY FLIRTING WITH THE 90 DEGREE MARK.
MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN QUICKLY BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS YET ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND CUTS OFF ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS RETURNING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ANOTHER RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH ONLY MAKING SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS INTO CENTRAL OK BY
TUE. THE GOOD NEWS IS BY THIS TIME...WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE DRY
SLOTTING ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE CLOSED LOW WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN DRIER CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS
TO TAKE OVER FROM THE WEST.
PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 102 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/
AVIATION...
MORNING IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS AND PATCHY FOG HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR
OUT ACROSS LA/AR PORTIONS OF AREA. HOWEVER...CIGS HAVE LIFTED TO
VFR ACROSS NE TX...AND BECMG SKC AT KLFK. AS TEMPS WARM TO AOB 80
DEGREES...EXPLOSIVE CONVECTION MAY OCCUR. VERY STG LOW LVL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BRING A THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND
POSSIBLE TORNADOES ACROSS NE TX BY AROUND 24/21-22Z...WITH WARM
FRONT MOVG SLOWLY NWD ACROSS AREA. IN ADDITION...A SLOW MOVG
SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVE...AND BRING STG STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS OVERNIGHT. WITH PASSAGE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH BRINGING
LINE OF STORMS...WINDS BECMG SW 10 TO 20 KTS...AND VFR CONDITIONS
TO RETURN TO AREA BY AROUND 25/15Z.
VII
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 69 89 64 89 / 60 20 0 10
MLU 70 87 66 87 / 60 30 10 10
DEQ 62 86 51 85 / 80 10 0 10
TXK 68 87 60 85 / 80 10 0 10
ELD 68 85 60 84 / 60 20 0 10
TYR 69 89 63 88 / 60 10 0 10
GGG 68 88 63 88 / 60 10 0 10
LFK 70 89 65 89 / 60 30 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
VII/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
102 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
.AVIATION...
MORNING IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS AND PATCHY FOG HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR
OUT ACROSS LA/AR PORTIONS OF AREA. HOWEVER...CIGS HAVE LIFTED TO
VFR ACROSS NE TX...AND BECMG SKC AT KLFK. AS TEMPS WARM TO AOB 80
DEGREES...EXPLOSIVE CONVECTION MAY OCCUR. VERY STG LOW LVL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BRING A THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND
POSSIBLE TORNADOES ACROSS NE TX BY AROUND 24/21-22Z...WITH WARM
FRONT MOVG SLOWLY NWD ACROSS AREA. IN ADDITION...A SLOW MOVG
SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVE...AND BRING STG STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS OVERNIGHT. WITH PASSAGE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH BRINGING
LINE OF STORMS...WINDS BECMG SW 10 TO 20 KTS...AND VFR CONDITIONS
TO RETURN TO AREA BY AROUND 25/15Z./VII/.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/
DISCUSSION...
TWO AREAS OF CONCERN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION...THE FIRST
BEING INCREASING COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST/EAST
CENTRAL TX AND THE SECOND BEING INCREASING COVERAGE NORTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR.
THE FIRST IS DUE IN PART TO A WEAK PERTURBATION IN SW FLOW ALOFT
SWINGING NE FROM CENTRAL TX. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE ALSO HAS
SOME SURFACE SUPPORT AS AN ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT NEARLY
STAGNATED FROM N TX...SNAKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER
TOLEDO BEND RESERVOIR INTO SOUTHEAST LA. THIS WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO COME SLOWLY NORTHWARD TODAY...PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS
THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF N LA. THE SECOND AREA OF CONCERN IS OF A MORE
ELEVATED NATURE THIS MORNING WITH COVERAGE NORTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR. THIS ACTIVITY IS WELL NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT BUT IS
SITUATED AGAIN WITH STRONGER PERTURBATIONS IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.
FOR THE UPDATE THIS MORNING...RAISED RAIN CHANCES WHERE THESE TWO
ENHANCED AREAS OF PRECIP WERE OBSERVED. OUR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
FOR LATER TODAY/THIS EVENING WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON JUST HOW MUCH
WE ARE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE AND HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT MAKES
IT INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THE HRRR SHOWS A BREAK IN THE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NE
TX IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST DISTURBANCE AND THIS MAY BE THE BREAK
NECESSARY FOR AT LEAST OUR SOUTHERN HALF TO WARM UP AS THIS AREA
SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR BY THIS TIME. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND EVENTUAL BOWING LINE SEGMENTS IF
WE CAN GET THE INSTABILITY TO INCREASE LATER TODAY. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR WILL ALSO BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/THIS
EVENING.
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY...13.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 75 70 89 64 / 80 80 20 0
MLU 74 71 90 64 / 70 80 30 10
DEQ 67 63 86 55 / 80 70 10 0
TXK 70 69 89 60 / 80 80 10 0
ELD 70 69 90 60 / 80 80 20 0
TYR 78 70 89 64 / 80 50 10 0
GGG 77 69 90 64 / 80 70 10 0
LFK 80 71 91 67 / 80 50 30 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1032 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
.DISCUSSION...
TWO AREAS OF CONCERN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION...THE FIRST
BEING INCREASING COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST/EAST
CENTRAL TX AND THE SECOND BEING INCREASING COVERAGE NORTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR.
THE FIRST IS DUE IN PART TO A WEAK PERTURBATION IN SW FLOW ALOFT
SWINGING NE FROM CENTRAL TX. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE ALSO HAS
SOME SURFACE SUPPORT AS AN ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT NEARLY
STAGNATED FROM N TX...SNAKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER
TOLEDO BEND RESERVOIR INTO SOUTHEAST LA. THIS WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO COME SLOWLY NORTHWARD TODAY...PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS
THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF N LA. THE SECOND AREA OF CONCERN IS OF A MORE
ELEVATED NATURE THIS MORNING WITH COVERAGE NORTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR. THIS ACTIVITY IS WELL NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT BUT IS
SITUATED AGAIN WITH STRONGER PERTURBATIONS IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.
FOR THE UPDATE THIS MORNING...RAISED RAIN CHANCES WHERE THESE TWO
ENHANCED AREAS OF PRECIP WERE OBSERVED. OUR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
FOR LATER TODAY/THIS EVENING WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON JUST HOW MUCH
WE ARE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE AND HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT MAKES
IT INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THE HRRR SHOWS A BREAK IN THE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NE
TX IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST DISTURBANCE AND THIS MAY BE THE BREAK
NECESSARY FOR AT LEAST OUR SOUTHERN HALF TO WARM UP AS THIS AREA
SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR BY THIS TIME. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND EVENTUAL BOWING LINE SEGMENTS IF
WE CAN GET THE INSTABILITY TO INCREASE LATER TODAY. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR WILL ALSO BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/THIS
EVENING.
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY...13.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 813 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/
AVIATION...
FOR THE 24/12Z TAFS...IFR/MVFR CIGS FOR MANY ATTM WITH WIDE
SPREAD SHWRS/TSTMS N ALONG I-30 AS A WARM FRONT IS RETURNING
NORTHWARD. EXPECT INTENSE CONVECTION DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN OUR CWA FM W TO E AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS EWRD ACROSS
TX/OK AT PEAK HEATING...DRIVING A SQ LINE(S) OF TSTMS DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. OUR ELY SFC WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BE VEERING TO
S/SELY THIS CYCLE. ALOFT...OUR CLIMB WINDS ARE ALREADY S/SE
5-25KTS TO 2KFT...THEN VEER TO ALL SW/W ALOFT 20-50KTS TO
20KFT...AND DUE WEST AT 75KTS BY FL240. /24/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 75 70 89 64 / 80 80 20 0
MLU 74 71 90 64 / 70 80 30 10
DEQ 67 63 86 55 / 80 70 10 0
TXK 70 69 89 60 / 80 80 10 0
ELD 70 69 90 60 / 80 80 20 0
TYR 78 70 89 64 / 80 50 10 0
GGG 77 69 90 64 / 80 70 10 0
LFK 80 71 91 67 / 80 50 30 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
24/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
823 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT AND
OFF THE COAST SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOW REMAINS OFFSHORE AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW MAY IMPACT THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...RAIN EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE
DELMARVA COAST ALONG AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE ALOFT. A SURFACE LOW
IS LOCATED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
RAIN MOVING NORTHWARD...DEWPTS DRASTICALLY DROP OFF INTO THE UPPER
20S/30S. AS THE RAINDROPS MOVE INTO THE DRY ENVIRONMENT...THEY
COOL IN THE LOWER 1-2K FEET AND RE-FREEZE RESULTING IN SLEET BEING
OBSERVED NEAR THE LEADING EDGE. AS RAIN MOVES NORTHWARD DEWPTS
WILL RISE INTO THE 30S/40S TONIGHT. NO SLEET ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.
AS THE LOW MOVES EASTWARD THE BAND OF RAIN CURRENTLY OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC WILL ALSO MOVE EASTWARD. THIS AREA OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AFTER 6Z TONIGHT MOVING EAST OF I-95 BY 10Z
SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH OVERNIGHT AND BASICALLY TRENDED
MIN TEMPS TO ADJUSTED MET GUIDANCE.
FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY LINE UP PRETTY WELL WITH WPC
QPF AMOUNTS AND WILL BE GENERALLY HEAVIER ACROSS THE SW PORTION
WITH AMOUNTS AROUND ONE HALF INCH...DC METRO AROUND ONE- QUARTER
OF AN INCH...BALTIMORE BETWEEN 1-2 TENTHS.
HI RES CAM MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 12Z NAM/GFS/SREF ON
TIMING OF PRECIP ACROSS AREA. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE
PRECIP COULD EVEN BE MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING.
FOR SUNDAY...THERE COULD BE LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE SRN
TIER OF THE CWA JUST AFTER 12Z...BUT CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL PUSH
SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGH TEMPS STILL COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND USED A
BLEND OF MOS/ADJ MAV.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
REGION REMAINS POSITIONED UNDER UPPER LVL LOW CENTERED OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WHILE SFC LOW SETTLES WELL OFFSHORE TO START
THE WORK WEEK. GENERALLY EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS SUN NIGHT WITH A
BREAK IN THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY...THOUGH A SFC TROF COULD GENERATE
ISO SHOWERS SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 30S
FOR LOWS SUN NIGHT COULD RESULT IN ANY PCPN NEAR DAYBREAK BEING A
RAIN/SNOW OR EVEN ALL SNOW...WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUM.
THE REGION WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE LOW OFFSHORE MONDAY...RESULTING IN ELEVATED
WINDS...WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH. POPS INCREASE AFTR 12Z MON AS NEXT
SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX ROUNDS THE LOW...WITH THE BETTER CHC WESTERN AND
EASTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA. THE STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL EXTEND ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC FOR MOST OF THE DAY...PRODUCING SCT SHOWERS.
PCPN TAPERS OFF MON EVENING AS UPPER LVL LOW PIVOTS OFFSHORE. AS THE
HIGH BUILDS IN...EXPECTING TO SEE WARMING TEMPS...WITH TEMPS NEARING
NORMAL BY MON NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DESPITE THE COOL START AND CONTINUED CAA BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...TEMPS WILL REBOUND A FEW DEGREES TUE AS DECREASING CLOUDS
ALLOW THE LATE APRIL SUN TO DO ITS WORK. THIS SLOW WARMING TREND
CONTINUES INTO WED...WITH TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL...AS A WEAK AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
MODEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY BY LATE WED INTO THU WITH
REGARDS TO DEVELOPING LOW OVER GOM. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TO
SHUNT MAIN IMPACTS TO OUR SOUTH...WITH LITTLE QPF OVER CWA. 12Z GFS
FAR DIFFERENT FROM 00Z ECMWF...AS GFS HAS NO COASTAL LOW OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AND ECMWF DOES. HAVE LOWERED POPS SOME FOR
THU...ALTHOUGH FOR CONSISTENCY AND TO AVOID JUMPING ON ONE MODEL
CYCLE STILL KEPT CHC POPS...ALTHOUGH THAT MIGHT BE TOO HIGH.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY FRIDAY...BRINGING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-RA EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF
AFTER 6Z TONIGHT. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TONIGHT. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE 3-6Z BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE TERMINALS BUT AT THIS TIME CARRYING MVFR CIGS. CHO WILL
LIKELY SEE THE MOST MOISTURE ALOFT AND THEREFORE IFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT. LIGHT S-SW WINDS WILL BECOME N TONIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD STAY LIGHT...LESS THAN 6KTS.
VFR CONDITIONS SUN-SUN NIGHT. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PSBL MON WITH ANY
RAIN SHOWER. GUSTY NW WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS PSBL AS WELL
DURING THE DAY MON...DIMINISHING AFTR SUNSET. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER
THRU MON NIGHT.
NOT EXPECTING AVIATION CONCERNS TUE/WED WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE WATERS THIS EVENING. WINDS
REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH SUN MORNING...INCREASING SUN AFTN.
GUSTS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH 18-20 KTS SUN AFTN WITH NORTHERLY
CHANNELING.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS INITIALLY SUN EVENING...WITH INCRSG
WINDS OVERNIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS AS EARLY AS
THE SECOND HALF OF SUN NIGHT...BCMG MORE LIKELY AFTR DAYBREAK MON.
GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS PSBL ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY DURING THE DAY. SCA
GUSTS CONTINUE THRU MON NIGHT.
SCA IS POSSIBLE TUE UNTIL THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH
DEPARTING LOW. PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES ENOUGH FOR A RETURN TO
LIGHT WINDS BY WED.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS
NEAR TERM...HAS/SMZ
SHORT TERM...SEARS/SMZ
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...SEARS/HAS/MSE/SMZ
MARINE...SEARS/HAS/MSE/SMZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
347 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015
FLOW ALOFT BRIEFLY HAS BECOME WESTERLY WHICH IS ALLOWING WARM
ADVECTION OCCURRING NORTH OF WEAK SFC WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA TO AFFECT FAR WESTERN GREAT LAKES. LOW-LEVELS BLO H85 PER
12Z SOUNDINGS FM GRB/INL/MPX REMAIN QUITE DRY...BUT MOISTURE AND
WARM ADVECTION MAINLY AT H7 IS DRIVING AREA OF SCT LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER NORTHWEST WI. EVEN SOME SNOW WAS REPORTED IN NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA EARLIER TODAY AS TEMPS WERE IN THE 30S AS THE PRECIP BEGAN.
BASED ON WHERE RAP/NAM SHOW NOSE OF H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THIS
EVENING...SOME OF THE SHRA OVER NORTHWEST WI MAY CLIP SW UPR
MICHIGAN THROUGH MIDNIGHT. GREATEST CHANCES FM IRONWOOD TO IRON
RIVER. WEAK FORCING ALOFT AND PERSISTENT DRY LOW-LEVELS WILL
PROHIBIT THE PRECIP FM MAKING IT VERY FAR TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THOSE AREAS. LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS...SHOWING
ANY SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY AT 1KM OF NOTE FADING AS IT MOVES INTO
SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. AS TEMPS COOL ENOUGH IN BLYR AFTER SUNSET...MAY
SEE RAIN TRY TO TURN TO SNOW BRIEFLY BEFORE THE WANING FORCING
ALLOWS THIS PRECIP TO END. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN A
COATING OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IF IT OCCURS AT ALL. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL
BE COOLEST IN THE EAST /UPR TEENS TO LOW 20S/ CLOSER TO SFC HIGH AND
WHERE SKIES STAY MOSTLY CLEAR. ELSEWHERE EXPECT READINGS IN UPR 20S
TO MID 30S...WARMEST WEST.
MID CLOUDS GRADUALLY FADE AWAY ON SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FM HUDSON BAY. NORTHERLY GRADIENT WINDS TIED INTO THE HIGH
WILL KEEP AREAS NEAR LK SUPERIOR SHORE STUCK IN THE 30S DESPITE THE
INCREASING SUNSHINE. WARMEST TEMPS INTO THE LOW 50S WILL BE ALONG WI
BORDER AND ALSO NEAR LK MICHIGAN WITH NORTH WINDS COMING OFF THE
LAND OF EAST HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015
SAT NIGHT AND SUN...SFC RIDGING AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE THE WRN GREAT LAKES AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD MN
AND NW ONTARIO AND TROUGH LINGERS FROM NRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
ERN GREAT LAKES. WITH LIGHT NE TO N LOW LEVEL FLOW...TEMPS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE HIGHS WILL
REACH ONLY INTO THE LOWER 40S. READINGS TO AROUND 50 WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE SOUTH HALF.
THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE S INTO UPPER MI ON MON...SO MON
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUN. HOWEVER...WITH THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENING
AND A SLIGHT MODERATION OF AIR MASS...MAX TEMPS MON SHOULD BE
SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN SUN...ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS MON NIGHT. AS MID/UPPER RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE
ROCKIES...THIS WAVE MAY END UP DIVING SE OR S TOWARD A SRN TROF OVER
TX/LWR MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION PER 12Z RUNS OF GFS AND GEM AND
23/12Z ECMWF...RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY WEATHER HERE. THE 24/00Z
AND 24/12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH THE
SHORTWAVE SHOWING A MORE AGGRESSIVE EASTWARD PROGRESSION BEFORE
DIVING THE SHORTWAVE SE. THIS SOLN MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SHRA
SPREADING INTO UPPER MI TUE INTO WED MORNING. GIVEN THAT LATEST
ECMWF STILL SHOWS THE MORE AGGRESSIVE EASTWARD PROGRESSION WITH
SHORTWAVE WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SHRA OVER THE CWA TUE
INTO WED. CAA IN N-NE FLOW AHEAD OF BUILDING SFC HIGH FM CANADA AS
DEPICTED BY 12Z ECMWF WL KEEP TEMPS COOLER WED INTO WED NIGHT
PROBABLY SIMILAR TO EXPECTED BELOW NORMAL READINGS THIS WEEKEND.
THU-FRI...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION AND SINCE BOTH
12Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED FARTHER NORTH WITH SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA EXPECT GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. GENERAL TREND OF 00Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS
FOR UPSTREAM MID-UPR LVL RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS TO BE A BIT MORE
PRONOUNCED WHICH RESULTS IN A SHARPER NW FLOW DEVELOPING INTO THE
UPPER LAKES. THIS WOULD TEMPER THE WARMUP INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES
FOR LATE WEEK AND MAY RESULT IN TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL INSTEAD OF
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL OF ALL 3
TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH VFR CEILINGS/VIS. THE ONLY SMALL
EXCEPTION WILL BE IWD LATE THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...WHERE
SOME LIGHT SHRA MAY DROP CONDITIONS TO MVFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 241 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FACTOR OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL THE
WINDS WILL STAY AT OR BLO 20 KTS. THE ONE MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR WHERE EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS ARE
EXPECTED AS STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE AREA INITIALLY BUILDS OVER THE
REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
334 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015
FLOW ALOFT BRIEFLY HAS BECOME WESTERLY WHICH IS ALLOWING WARM
ADVECTION OCCURRING NORTH OF WEAK SFC WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA TO AFFECT FAR WESTERN GREAT LAKES. LOW-LEVELS BLO H85 PER
12Z SOUNDINGS FM GRB/INL/MPX REMAIN QUITE DRY...BUT MOISTURE AND
WARM ADVECTION MAINLY AT H7 IS DRIVING AREA OF SCT LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER NORTHWEST WI. EVEN SOME SNOW WAS REPORTED IN NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA EARLIER TODAY AS TEMPS WERE IN THE 30S AS THE PRECIP BEGAN.
BASED ON WHERE RAP/NAM SHOW NOSE OF H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THIS
EVENING...SOME OF THE SHRA OVER NORTHWEST WI MAY CLIP SW UPR
MICHIGAN THROUGH MIDNIGHT. GREATEST CHANCES FM IRONWOOD TO IRON
RIVER. WEAK FORCING ALOFT AND PERSISTENT DRY LOW-LEVELS WILL
PROHIBIT THE PRECIP FM MAKING IT VERY FAR TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THOSE AREAS. LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS...SHOWING
ANY SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY AT 1KM OF NOTE FADING AS IT MOVES INTO
SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. AS TEMPS COOL ENOUGH IN BLYR AFTER SUNSET...MAY
SEE RAIN TRY TO TURN TO SNOW BRIEFLY BEFORE THE WANING FORCING
ALLOWS THIS PRECIP TO END. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN A
COATING OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IF IT OCCURS AT ALL. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL
BE COOLEST IN THE EAST /UPR TEENS TO LOW 20S/ CLOSER TO SFC HIGH AND
WHERE SKIES STAY MOSTLY CLEAR. ELSEWHERE EXPECT READINGS IN UPR 20S
TO MID 30S...WARMEST WEST.
MID CLOUDS GRADUALLY FADE AWAY ON SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FM HUDSON BAY. NORTHERLY GRADIENT WINDS TIED INTO THE HIGH
WILL KEEP AREAS NEAR LK SUPERIOR SHORE STUCK IN THE 30S DESPITE THE
INCREASING SUNSHINE. WARMEST TEMPS INTO THE LOW 50S WILL BE ALONG WI
BORDER AND ALSO NEAR LK MICHIGAN WITH NORTH WINDS COMING OFF THE
LAND OF EAST HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015
SAT NIGHT AND SUN...SFC RIDGING AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE THE WRN GREAT LAKES AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD MN
AND NW ONTARIO AND TROUGH LINGERS FROM NRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
ERN GREAT LAKES. WITH LIGHT NE TO N LOW LEVEL FLOW...TEMPS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE HIGHS WILL
REACH ONLY INTO THE LOWER 40S. READINGS TO AROUND 50 WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE SOUTH HALF.
THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE S INTO UPPER MI ON MON...SO MON
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUN. HOWEVER...WITH THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENING
AND A SLIGHT MODERATION OF AIR MASS...MAX TEMPS MON SHOULD BE
SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN SUN...ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS MON NIGHT. AS MID/UPPER RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE
ROCKIES...THIS WAVE MAY END UP DIVING SE OR S TOWARD A SRN TROF OVER
TX/LWR MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION PER 12Z RUNS OF GFS AND GEM AND
23/12Z ECMWF...RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY WEATHER HERE. THE 24/00Z
AND 24/12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH THE
SHORTWAVE SHOWING A MORE AGGRESSIVE EASTWARD PROGRESSION BEFORE
DIVING THE SHORTWAVE SE. THIS SOLN MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SHRA
SPREADING INTO UPPER MI TUE INTO WED MORNING. GIVEN THAT LATEST
ECMWF STILL SHOWS THE MORE AGGRESSIVE EASTWARD PROGRESSION WITH
SHORTWAVE WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SHRA OVER THE CWA TUE
INTO WED. N-NE FLOW AHEAD OF BUILDING SFC HIGH FM CANADA WL KEEP
TEMPS COOLER WED INTO WED NIGHT SIMILAR TO EXPECTED BELOW
NORMAL READINGS THIS WEEKEND.
THU-FRI...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION AND SINCE BOTH
12Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED FARTHER NORTH WITH SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA EXPECT GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. GENERAL TREND OF 00Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS
FOR UPSTREAM MID-UPR LVL RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS TO BE A BIT MORE
PRONOUNCED WHICH RESULTS IN A SHARPER NW FLOW DEVELOPING INTO THE
UPPER LAKES. THIS WOULD TEMPER THE WARMUP INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES
FOR LATE WEEK AND MAY RESULT IN TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL INSTEAD OF
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL OF ALL 3
TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH VFR CEILINGS/VIS. THE ONLY SMALL
EXCEPTION WILL BE IWD LATE THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...WHERE
SOME LIGHT SHRA MAY DROP CONDITIONS TO MVFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 241 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FACTOR OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL THE
WINDS WILL STAY AT OR BLO 20 KTS. THE ONE MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR WHERE EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS ARE
EXPECTED AS STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE AREA INITIALLY BUILDS OVER THE
REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
241 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015
FLOW ALOFT BRIEFLY HAS BECOME WESTERLY WHICH IS ALLOWING WARM
ADVECTION OCCURRING NORTH OF WEAK SFC WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA TO AFFECT FAR WESTERN GREAT LAKES. LOW-LEVELS BLO H85 PER
12Z SOUNDINGS FM GRB/INL/MPX REMAIN QUITE DRY...BUT MOISTURE AND
WARM ADVECTION MAINLY AT H7 IS DRIVING AREA OF SCT LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER NORTHWEST WI. EVEN SOME SNOW WAS REPORTED IN NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA EARLIER TODAY AS TEMPS WERE IN THE 30S AS THE PRECIP BEGAN.
BASED ON WHERE RAP/NAM SHOW NOSE OF H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THIS
EVENING...SOME OF THE SHRA OVER NORTHWEST WI MAY CLIP SW UPR
MICHIGAN THROUGH MIDNIGHT. GREATEST CHANCES FM IRONWOOD TO IRON
RIVER. WEAK FORCING ALOFT AND PERSISTENT DRY LOW-LEVELS WILL
PROHIBIT THE PRECIP FM MAKING IT VERY FAR TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THOSE AREAS. LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS...SHOWING
ANY SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY AT 1KM OF NOTE FADING AS IT MOVES INTO
SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. AS TEMPS COOL ENOUGH IN BLYR AFTER SUNSET...MAY
SEE RAIN TRY TO TURN TO SNOW BRIEFLY BEFORE THE WANING FORCING
ALLOWS THIS PRECIP TO END. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN A
COATING OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IF IT OCCURS AT ALL. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL
BE COOLEST IN THE EAST /UPR TEENS TO LOW 20S/ CLOSER TO SFC HIGH AND
WHERE SKIES STAY MOSTLY CLEAR. ELSEWHERE EXPECT READINGS IN UPR 20S
TO MID 30S...WARMEST WEST.
MID CLOUDS GRADUALLY FADE AWAY ON SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FM HUDSON BAY. NORTHERLY GRADIENT WINDS TIED INTO THE HIGH
WILL KEEP AREAS NEAR LK SUPERIOR SHORE STUCK IN THE 30S DESPITE THE
INCREASING SUNSHINE. WARMEST TEMPS INTO THE LOW 50S WILL BE ALONG WI
BORDER AND ALSO NEAR LK MICHIGAN WITH NORTH WINDS COMING OFF THE
LAND OF EAST HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015
AFTER A FEW PERIODS OF MUCH NEEDED PCPN DURING THE LAST 2
WEEKS...THE PATTERN IS ONCE AGAIN BECOMING ONE THAT FAVORS DRY
WEATHER IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. RIDGING/POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
DEVELOPING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH HUDSON BAY THIS
WEEKEND WILL REDEVELOP W TO THE ROCKIES NEXT WEEK. THIS CHANGE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS WILL TRANSLATE TO SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING S FROM HUDSON
BAY THIS WEEKEND AND THEN HIGH PRES SETTLING S THRU THE PLAINS TO THE
WRN GULF THRU THU NEXT WEEK. END RESULT IS AN OVERALL DRY PATTERN
WITH NO CHANCE FOR GULF MOISTURE TO REACH UPPER MI DURING THE LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE FCST. AS FOR TEMPS...SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING S FROM
HUDSON BAY THIS WEEKEND WILL KEEP TEMPS BLO NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE N WHERE GRADIENT WINDS REMAIN OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. GRADUAL
WARMING WILL OCCUR NEXT WEEK...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS RISING TO
ABOVE NORMAL FOR ALL OR MOST LOCATIONS BY WED/THU. HOWEVER...00Z
MODEL RUNS CAST DOUBT ON THE WARMTH MIDWEEK. MORE ON THAT LATER.
OVER THE WEEKEND...AFORMENTIONED SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING S FROM HUDSON
BAY INTO THE UPPER LAKES WILL KEEP CONDITIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR ON
THE CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGH TEMPS NOT GETTING HIGHER THAN THE LOWER
40S AT BEST. SOME LAKESIDE LOCATIONS FROM THE KEWEENAW EASTWARD
WON`T GET OUT OF THE 30S ON BOTH DAYS. WELL IN THE INTERIOR...
ESTIMATED MIXING HEIGHTS ON NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST HIGHS
SAT/SUN AROUND 50F TO THE LWR 50S. SUN MAY END UP SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN SAT AT MANY LOCATIONS UNDER A MORE NORTHERLY WIND AS OPPOSED TO
THE MORE NORTHEASTERLY WIND ON SAT. WHILE CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING
OVER THE W SAT...LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA
IN THE AFTN...SOME MOISTURE MAY BACK IN FROM THE NE FOR SUN...
LEADING TO A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER AT THAT TIME. MIN TEMPS SAT
NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S IN THE INTERIOR.
SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE S INTO UPPER MI ON MON...SO MON WILL
BE SIMILAR TO SUN. HOWEVER...WITH WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT AND SLIGHT
MODERATION OF AIR MASS...MAX TEMPS MON SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES
HIGHER THAN SUN...ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS MON NIGHT. AS MID/UPPER RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE
ROCKIES...THIS WAVE MAY END UP DIVING SE OR S TOWARD A SRN TROF OVER
TX/LWR MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION PER 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z/12Z GEM...
RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY WEATHER HERE. EVEN IF THE GFS WHICH
DRIVES SHORTWAVE THRU THE UPPER LAKES IS CORRECT...LACK OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION/ANTECEDANT DRY AIR MASS SUGGEST VERY LITTLE POTENTIAL OF
ANY PCPN. 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED STRONGER WITH A MORE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF SHORTWAVE BEFORE DIVING SE...RESULTING IN POTENTIAL
OF SHRA SPREADING INTO UPPER MI TUE AFTN AND NIGHT. WITH THIS THE
FIRST RUN TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR
NOW.
HEADING INTO WED/THU...GENERAL TREND OF 00Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS
FOR UPSTREAM RIDGING TO BE A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED...RESULTING IN
SHARPER NW FLOW DEVELOPING INTO THE UPPER LAKES. SINCE THIS HAS
OFTEN BEEN A FAVORED PATTERN OVER THE LAST FEW MONTHS...THIS TREND
IN THE 00Z MODEL RUNS MAY END UP BEING A CORRECT TREND. THIS
SUGGESTS THE WARMTH (TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL) REFLECTED
IN THE FCST FOR WED/THU (A RESULT OF MORE WEIGHTING FROM THE
PREVIOUS WARMER SOLUTIONS) MAY BE TOO OPTIMISTIC.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL OF ALL 3
TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH VFR CEILINGS/VIS. THE ONLY SMALL
EXCEPTION WILL BE IWD LATE THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...WHERE
SOME LIGHT SHRA MAY DROP CONDITIONS TO MVFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 241 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FACTOR OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL THE
WINDS WILL STAY AT OR BLO 20 KTS. THE ONE MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR WHERE EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS ARE
EXPECTED AS STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE AREA INITIALLY BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. &&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
606 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION IS ENSUING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SKIES
MAINLY CLOUDY NOW ACROSS MN AS A RESULT. AS STRONG AS THIS FORCING
MAY BE...IT IS RUNNING INTO ONE HUGE PROBLEM...THE INCREDIBLY DRY
AIRMASS IN THE LOWER LEVELS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. EVEN AT 3 AM THERE WERE SEVERAL LOCATIONS THAT STILL HAD
HUMIDITIES UNDER 25 PERCENT AND IN FACT...THERE ARE A FEW SITES OUT
IN WRN MN THAT ARE EVEN BORDERLINE RED FLAG CRITERIA WHERE SE WINDS
ARE STARTING TO GUST OUT OVER 20 MPH WITH HUMIDITIES UNDER 30
PERCENT. THE TRUE MAGNITUDE OF HOW DRY THIS AIRMASS IS COMES FROM
THE TWO SOUNDINGS RELEASED FROM MPX ON THURSDAY...BOTH OF WHICH
TALLIED PWATS UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THIS IS COMMON WITH ARCTIC
OUTBREAKS IN THE DEAD OF WINTER...BUT IT IS EXCEEDINGLY RARE TO SEE
PWATS SO LOW AT THIS POINT IN APRIL.
WITHIN THIS WARM ADVECTION...THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
FRONTOGENESIS ARE REALLY CENTERED AROUND SE NODAK...WHERE RAIN IS
FINALLY STARTING TO MAKE INROADS TO THE SFC UP AROUND FARGO. FOR
THE REST OF TODAY...THEIR IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AMONGST THE
SHORT TERM MODELS ON HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAINFALL INTO
AREA...SO THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF PRECIP AT ANY
ONE LOCATION. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE LACK OF MUCH JET
SUPPORT...ALONG WITH NO REAL SHORT WAVE TO HELP FOCUS ACTIVITY.
INSTEAD...TODAY LOOKS TO BRING A GOOD 6-10 HOUR WINDOW TO MOST
LOCATIONS WHERE LIGHT RAIN WILL BE INTERMITTENT AS THE ZONE OF
THETA-E ADVECTION SWINGS THROUGH. DID CUT BACK SOME MORE ON QPF AS
WELL...WITH THIS LOOKING TO BE YET ANOTHER DISAPPOINTING SYSTEM IN
THE RAINFALL DEPARTMENT...WITH MOST FOLKS GETTING UNDER A TENTH OF
AN INCH OF RAIN. THE ONLY AREA THAT LOOKS LIKE THEY COULD DO
BETTER THAN THAT IS ACROSS CENTRAL MN...AS FRONTAL FORCING
CURRENTLY IN THE FARGO AREA PUSHES EAST THIS MORNING BEFORE
WEAKENING. FOR THE WEATHER GRIDS...MADE TWO CHANGES. ONE WAS TO
INTRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER WORDING AS THE PLUME OF INSTABILITY
CURRENTLY UP INTO SE SODAK WILL PUSH INTO SW MN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE NAM SHOWING A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE
WORKING UP TO ABOUT A RED WING TO ALEXANDRIA LINE. ADDING FURTHER
SUPPORT TO BRINGING IN THE THUNDER MENTION WERE THE FACT THAT WE
HAVE SEEN INTERMITTENT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ALL NIGHT WITH THE
SHOWERS WORKING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WITH THE SPC SREF
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES GETTING UP ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS I-94
AS WELL. THE SECOND CHANGE WAS TO REMOVE ANY MIXED PRECIP FROM THE
GRIDS THIS MORNING AS CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT KEPT TEMPERATURES
HIGHER THAN WERE FORECAST...MEANING PRECIP MOVING IN WILL HAVE NO
PROBLEM MAINTAINING A LIQUID STATE.
TONIGHT WHAT LOOKS LIKE A CERTAINTY IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
STRATUS. AGAIN...THE FORCING FOR PRECIP DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT GREAT
AS SFC ENERGY CONSOLIDATES INTO A SUB 1000 MB LOW THAT WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE KC AREA. THIS LOOKS TO KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
SOUTH OF THE MPX AREA...WITH THIS AREA LOOKING TO GET MORE LIGHT
RAIN/SPRINKLES TO GO ALONG WITH THE STRATUS. BASED ON WHAT WE SAW
WITH TEMPERATURES WITH THE CLOUDS TONIGHT...DID BOOST LOWS TONIGHT A
FEW DEGREES WITH THE CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. THIS RESULTED IN THE
BULK OF THE MIXED IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT GETTING REMOVED AS
WELL.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
GOOD CONTINUITY CONTINUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM...LEADING TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER. RAIN WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SATURDAY AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS CONTINUE IN FAR SOUTHERN MN
FOR THE MORNING WITH CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LOCAL AREA FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
SOME FINE SPRING WEATHER OCCURRING. AFTER HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S
ON SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND 60 FOR SUNDAY WITH
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FOR TUESDAY...WHICH IS ACTUALLY NORMAL FOR
LATE APRIL.
THERE REMAINS A SHORT WAVE AND WEAK COOL FRONT THAT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM IS WEAKENING WITH TIME WITH ONLY SMALL POPS INDICATED
TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE TWIN CITIES FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. A MUCH LARGER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW AND EXPAND
OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
LIKELY. EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK (FRIDAY AND SATURDAY) AS RIDGING ALOFT DOMINATES THE CENTRAL
THIRD OF THE CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 606 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
LLJ WORKING INTO WRN MN THIS MORNING HAS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
TSTRMS FROM OMAHA TO FARGO. HOWEVER...WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH A
VERY DRY AIRMASS IN THE LOW LEVELS WHICH IS MAKING EWRD PROGRESS
INTO THE MPX AREA DIFFICULT. FELT TIMING FROM INHERITED TAFS
LOOKED GOOD BASED ON LATEST HRRR/HOPWRF FORECASTS SO MADE MINIMAL
CHANGES THERE. GIVEN THE DRY AIR...ALSO FAVORED THE SLOWER SREF
FOR BRINGING MVFR AND LOWER CIGS INTO THE AREA. IN FACT...SREF CIG
PROBABILITIES PAINT THE POSSIBILITY THAT DRY ERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
THE WI TERMINALS VFR THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. AT THE VERY
LEAST...LOWEST CLOUDS LOOK TO BE OUT IN WRN MN TONIGHT...WITH IFR
OR LOWER CIGS LIKELY WEST OF I-35.
KMSP...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON TWO FRONT FOR THIS TAF...TIMING ON
WHEN OR EVEN IF MSP SEES RAIN ALONG WITH HOW LOW DO CIGS GO. FOR
THE RAIN...ONE BAND OF VIRGA ALREADY MOVED THROUGH THIS
MORNING...BUT MAIN BATCH OF FORCING LOOKS TO ARRIVE CLOSER TO 18Z.
FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF -RA
THAT MAY CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF TONIGHT. HRRR AND LAMP WOULD SAY
MVFR CIGS MOVE IN WITH THE RAIN CHANCES...BUT GIVEN HOW DRY WE ARE
IN THE LOW LEVELS...FAVORED THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE SREF.
CONFIDENCE ON CIGS GOING BELOW 018 TONIGHT IS MEDIUM AS LOWER
CIGS AND BETTER MOISTURE LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO THE WEST...WITH
CONTINUED DRY ERLY SFC WINDS PLAYING HAVOC ON CLOUD HEIGHTS
THROUGH TONIGHT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...BCMG VFR. WINDS E 10-15 KT.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NE 5-10 KT.
MON...VFR. WINDS NNE 5 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
445 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
.DISCUSSION...MORNING CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES HAVE DIMINISHED AS THEY
HAVE MOVED EAST BUT HAVE BROUGHT SOME RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST BUT THESE ARE MUCH MORE SCATTERED.
DESPITE THE DRIER AIR THAT WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RETURNED TO THE REGION WITH
DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE REGION IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. THIS IS THANKS TO A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT
FROM THE COAST. NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID
50S BUT EXPECT THAT THESE SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING AS SOME MODELS EVEN SHOW UP TO 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT ADDITIONAL
STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE DELTA AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES....PARTICULARLY AFTER 8-10PM. AT THIS POINT VERTICAL
TOTALS AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING(WITH SHEAR
VALUES APPROACHING 60-70KTS) AND SHOULD BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND TORNADOES. IT APPEARS THAT THE LATEST RUNS
OF THE HRRR MIGHT HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE SITUATION AS A SMALL
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE DELTA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
APPROACHING SQUALL LINE. IT BRINGS THE LINE THROUGH MOSTLY THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF MY CWA FROM ABOUT 03-10Z WITH SEVERAL LEWP
STRUCTURES AND IT DOES APPEAR THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20
HAVE THE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE DELTA. WE
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND UPGRADED OUR HWO PRODUCTS ESPECIALLY IN THE DELTA
WHERE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH
GREATER THAN 75MPH WINDS AND STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE. /28/
ON SATURDAY THE OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LEAVE A
BOUNDARY SET UP OVER THE AREA AND THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATE AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH GOOD LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6.5 C/KM...LARGE HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN ALONG WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. STILL CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A TORNADO BUT HAIL AND WIND SHOULD BE THE MAIN
CONCERN. EXPECT ALL OF THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TO END EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR
BUILDS IN./15/
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS LOOKS TO GET QUITE
AMPLIFIED BY SUNDAY AS THE PREVIOUS TROUGH ENERGY BRINGING INCLEMENT
WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM BECOMES PART OF A CONSOLIDATED AND LARGE
UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST AND MORE ENERGY DIGS TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN BETWEEN THESE TROUGHS WILL BE
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH A COLD FRONT PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED TO
COME INTO THE NORTH SUNDAY LIKELY DELAYED UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY
ACCORDING TO LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS SHOULD SPELL A VERY WARM
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SUNDAY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.
BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY DISTURBANCES SHOULD
START EJECTING OUT OF THE APPROACHING PLAINS UPPER
LOW...UNDERCUTTING HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING IN THE PERSISTENTLY ACTIVE
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
HINTING IN THIS PATTERN THAT BAROCLINICITY AND INSTABILITY FOCUSED
FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY TOWARD THE GULF COAST WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES RIDING SOUTHEAST AND BLENDED GUIDANCE IS
CATCHING ON TO THIS. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT POPS ARE MOST STRONGLY
FOCUSED IN SOUTHERN (AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHWESTERN) ZONES AND IT IS
QUITE POSSIBLE POPS COULD TREND EVEN MORE WEIGHTED TOWARD THE COAST.
IT IS NOT UNTIL TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY WHEN THE UPPER LOW SHOULD COME
OVER THE REGION AND POSITIVELY FORCE SOLID RAIN AND EMBEDDED STORM
OPPORTUNITIES ACROSS THE WHOLE OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
MUCH DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO MOVE IN FOR MIDDLE OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING TAKES HOLD ONCE AGAIN. /BB/
&&
.AVIATION...AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR TSRA AND LOWER
CIGS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE HEZ-JAN-GTR CORRIDOR IN
THE 03Z-12Z TIME FRAME. DRIER AIR WILL BECOME TO MOVE BACK IN
SATURDAY FROM THE WEST...BUT THERE WILL BE LINGERING CHANCES FOR
TSRA ESPECIALLY IN THE HBG/PIB AREA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
/EC/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 70 85 67 87 / 71 40 8 7
MERIDIAN 68 84 66 86 / 66 50 11 7
VICKSBURG 70 87 66 87 / 74 26 8 9
HATTIESBURG 71 85 68 89 / 42 45 10 8
NATCHEZ 71 85 68 86 / 53 31 7 7
GREENVILLE 67 86 63 82 / 97 22 5 9
GREENWOOD 67 86 63 83 / 96 34 8 10
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
28/15/BB/EC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
905 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015
.UPDATE...
LOWER POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES TONIGHT. MODELS AND RADAR DO
NOT SHOW MUCH OF ANYTHING OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT CLOUD COVER TO KEEP ANY
FOG FROM FORMING FROM MILES CITY EAST. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE NOT
VERY HIGH FOR FOG AND HRRR IS NOT SHOWING MUCH EITHER...SO HAVE
NOT ADDED ANY FOR TO THE FORECAST. REIMER &&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...
UPPER TROUGH AND DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT THE RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW
MIX OVERNIGHT TO OUR CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT AND THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTH AND EAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON. AREA OF LIGHT RAIN HAS MOSTLY MOVED INTO ROSEBUD
COUNTY WITH MOVEMENT MAINLY NORTHWARD. HAVE SHIFTED LIKELY POPS
FROM OUR CENTRAL AREAS TO OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS FOR THIS EVENING
AND KEPT A HIGH SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCE ELSEWHERE AS RADAR IS
SHOWING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING OFF THE BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS.
AREAS FROM BIG HORN COUNTY TO YELLOWSTONE AND WHEATLAND COUNTIES
WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AS THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
A LARGE TROUGH AND UPPER LOW CURRENTLY MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST WILL INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS STILL LOOK TO REMAIN TO
OUR SOUTH BUT NOT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE
INDICATED. MODELS KEEP THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIP ACROSS
WYOMING BUT LATEST MODELS SHIFT SOME OF THIS FURTHER NORTH ACROSS
OUR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. WILL STILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN LIKELY
POPS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS ALL BUT THE
FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS
AND ASSOCIATED COOLING STILL LOOK TO STAY TO OUR SOUTH BUT MODELS
DO BRING A BIT MORE COLDER AIR INTO THE MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILLS
LOCATIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW FOR
THE RED LODGE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION WITH A COLD RAIN
FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS.
LIKELY POPS WILL CONTINUE ALL DAY SUNDAY WITH THE PRECIP SLOWLY
SHIFTING EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS BY EVENING LEAVING JUST A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OUT TOWARD THE
DAKOTA BORDERS WHERE LIKELY POPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. WE MAY SEE AROUND 4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA AND BIG HORN
MOUNTAINS FROM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DRY OUT BY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
WILL BE QUITE CHILLY ESPECIALLY COMBINED WITH THE SHOWERS AND RAIN
WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY WITH
LOWER 60S COMMON. HOOLEY
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES AGAIN FOR EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT. THERE ARE A FEW
TIMING ISSUES LATE IN THE PERIOD... BUT IS TO BE EXPECTED...AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW SETS UP AND MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES CROSS THING THE REGION.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD...BRINGING SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. TEMPS
WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S TUESDAY AND AROUND 80 IN MOST
LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY. RIDGING GIVES WAY TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS A DEEP TROF DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST.
THIS PATTERN WILL PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BRINGING PACIFIC MOISTURE AND MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ACROSS
THE REGION. NOTHING APPEARS SIGNIFICANTLY STRONG TO HANG OUR HAT
ON AT THIS POINT...BUT SHOWERS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY THROUGHOUT
THE LAST HALF OF THE PERIOD. CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPS A BIT COOLER...BUT STILL IN 70S ACROSS THE REGION. AAG
&&
.AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE W OF KBIL THROUGH 06Z...OTHERWISE RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT...AS WELL AS INTO THE NE BIGHORNS. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA ON SUN WITH RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WITH THE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND SUN. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AND BE WIDESPREAD ON SUN. ARTHUR
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 038/052 037/062 041/076 048/080 048/073 049/075 048/070
36/R 31/B 00/U 01/U 12/W 22/W 22/W
LVM 035/050 030/062 035/073 044/076 043/069 042/070 041/062
67/R 31/B 00/U 01/U 13/W 22/W 22/W
HDN 037/056 037/064 039/076 047/081 048/075 050/078 049/071
26/R 41/B 00/U 00/U 12/W 22/W 22/W
MLS 037/056 038/064 040/075 047/081 049/075 051/078 050/071
24/R 41/B 00/U 00/U 11/U 22/W 22/W
4BQ 037/052 038/060 037/072 045/079 047/076 048/078 050/072
38/R 72/W 00/U 00/U 02/W 22/W 22/W
BHK 036/053 037/057 038/070 044/075 046/072 048/076 050/070
37/R 83/W 00/U 00/U 11/U 22/W 22/W
SHR 037/049 034/060 037/071 042/075 045/072 046/074 046/068
47/R 62/W 00/U 00/U 11/U 22/W 22/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
250 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY BEFORE 08Z...AND THEN RAIN CHANCES LINGERING
ON SATURDAY. SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT MID AFTERNOON SHOWED TWO LOW PRESSURE CENTERS.
ONE WAS OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND THE OTHER WAS OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. THE FIRST LOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AND TRACK INTO
NORTHWEST MISSOURI BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HAD MOVED NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S AT MANY LOCATIONS. LATEST SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS
SHOWED THE MIXED LAYER CAPE AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL KANSAS TO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THEN INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. EFFECTIVE
SHEAR VALUES AS OF 19Z WERE MOSTLY LESS THAN 30 KNOTS LOCALLY.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE MOSTLY 7.5 TO 8.5 DEGREES C PER KM.
EXPECT THAT STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN CONTINUE FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
RECENT HRRR AND RAP MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THAT.
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE MAINLY HAIL AND THAT MAINLY IN OUR
FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AS STORMS LIFT/MOVE NORTHEAST FROM KANSAS.
THERE IS ALSO SOME THREAT OF HAIL WITH STORMS THAT MAY AFFECT
PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR PCPN AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE IS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...BUT ALL AREAS COULD SEE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.
ON SATURDAY...PCPN SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING
THE MORNING. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON...
MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST IOWA. OTHERWISE...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIMIT HEATING...SO KEPT MOST HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. A
CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AT
THE START OF THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL TRACK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND
OPEN UP THROUGH MID WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY DRY...BUT AT THIS
TIME PCPN CHANCES SEEMED TO BE 14 PERCENT OR LESS FOR ANY GIVEN
PERIOD. HIGHS WILL START OUT IN THE 60S MONDAY/TUESDAY...THEN WARM
TO THE 70S BY THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY NEAR 80 BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
MVFR CIGS WILL CONT THROUGH THE AFTN AT KOMA/KLNK AND WILL MOVE
INTO KOFK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT RA CHCS WILL INCREASE THIS
EVENING FOR ALL 3 TAF SITES. KOFK MAY SEE SOME SHRA MV IN FM THE
NW FM TSRA THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN NORTHERN NEB...BUT
WILL HOLD OFF WITH THUNDER MENTION FOR NOW THERE. KLNK/KOMA WILL
SEE ACTIVITY INCREASE FM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND WILL
INCLUDE SOME THUNDER AT KLNK BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF KOMA ATTM. IFR
CONDS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVS THRU THE SITES...
IMPROVING TO MVFR ON SAT MRNG.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1156 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015
SPLIT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE EAST. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WAS TRANSLATING EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG PV MAX SLOWLY
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE ASSOCIATED
HEIGHT FALLS WITH THIS PATTERN WERE SUPPORTING THE GRADUAL DEEPENING
OF A LEE SIDE SFC TROUGH FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH THE WESTERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. EAST OF THIS TROUGH WINDS WERE BREEZY OUT OF THE
SOUTH...TRANSPORTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015
CUMULUS CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED JUST WEST OF THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODELS
HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AND MOVING EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE BEST CHANCES
THROUGH THE EVENING WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. AS FAR AS STORM INTENSITY...MLCAPE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SFC TROUGH WILL NEAR 1000 J/KG BY LATER AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM ARE ALSO
IN PLACE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. A STORM OR TWO REACHING STRONG TO
SEVERE LIMITS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY
WEST OF HWY 61. THE ABILITY FOR STORMS TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES AND
REMAIN ORGANIZED IS IN QUESTION DUE RATHER WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ONLY AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS. THE MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH WHERE FASTER FLOW ALOFT AND
BETTER SHEAR PROFILES RESIDE.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
SCATTERED. UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
EJECT EASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE OVERNIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
STRATUS CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER
CENTRAL NEB...BUT BUFKIT DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THICK LOW STRATUS
IN OUR ZONES. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY VISBY FIELDS IN RECENT RUNS
OF THE HRRR AND NAM. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY FOG
IN THE GRIDS AT THIS POINT...BUT THE EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO
REEVALUATE.
MODELS PAINT QPF ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
REMAIN ALL OVER THE PLACE IN REGARDS TO THEIR PLACEMENT. EXPECTING
SCATTERED AND DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO LACK OF
A FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE
WEATHER AS THE MUCH BETTER ENVIRONMENT WILL BE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INLAND FROM THE WEST COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. OPERATIONAL MODELS FCST THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH TO BECOME CLOSED NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE MID
MISSOURI VALLEY. THIS WILL BE A RATHER DISORGANIZED EVENT...AND
WITH ONLY WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT...LIFT WILL ALSO BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED AND UNFOCUSED. THIS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SHOWERY AND
UNORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EVENT. WILL LIMIT HIGHEST POPS TO 40 TO
50 PERCENT EVENING AND 20 TO 30 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. BEST
INSTABILITY ACROSS SERN ZONES...WITH HIGHER TSTM CHANCES WITH ONLY
ISOLATED EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN ON
SATURDAY AS A TRANSITORY RIDGE MOVES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. THIS
WILL LESSEN POPS TO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH AND WEST WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPS NEAR 60 NORTHEAST TO NEAR 70 FAR
SOUTHWEST. THE GFS ENSEMBLE...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE THAT THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH AN AMPLIFIED SRLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS. CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
HIGHS PLAINS WITH CHC POPS WEST OF HWY 83...AND NO WX ACROSS THE
EAST. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL MOVE NORTH WILL LITTLE OR NOW
EASTWARD PROGRESSION. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN INDICATED CLOSED
LOW WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO...THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND
THEN ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS ENOUGH MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONFIDENCE
TO KEEP POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE
SUNDAY WITH CHC POPS EAST TO VALENTINE THROUGH BROKEN BOW. AS NRN
STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...POPS LESSEN AND
REMAIN ONLY ACROSS THE WEST. DRY MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND. UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COOLEST DAY LOOK TO BE SUNDAY AS
EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS AND CLOUDINESS/SHOWERS LIMITS HIGHS TO
LOWER MID 50S WEST TO NEAR 60 EAST. HIGHS THEN WARM INTO THE 60S
MONDAY/TUESDAY...LOW 70S WEDNESDAY...THEN MID/UPPER 70S THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015
LOOK FOR LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT BOTH THE
KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS. CIGS WILL RANGE FROM 700 TO 1500 FT AGL.
LOOK FOR CIGS TO LIFT TO VFR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH CIGS RANGING
FROM 10000 TO 20000 FT AGL. FOR FRIDAY EVENING...THERE WILL BE A
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED WIDELY SCATTERED
COVERAGE...WILL HANDLE THIS WITH A PROB30 GROUP.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
840 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY TONIGHT. VERY STRONG WINDS
ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT WILL BE SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND COMMENCING DURING THE WORKWEEK. &&
.UPDATE...A POTENT SHORT WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAVE
RESULTED IN QUITE AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON WEATHERWISE ACROSS THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEVADA
INCLUDING THE LAS VEGAS METRO WHERE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 0.15 AND 0.35 WERE COMMON. THE OFFICIAL MEASUREMENT AT
MCCARRAN OF 0.26 INCHES SHATTERED THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 0.07 FOR
THE DATE AND EXCEEDED THE NORMAL APRIL RAINFALL FOR THE ENTIRE
MONTH.
ACTIVITY IS NOW PUSHING INTO MOHAVE COUNTY AND SHOULD EXIT OUR
EASTERN BORDERS LATE TONIGHT. WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE
DESERT HAVE EASED CONSIDERABLY WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS OBSERVED IN
THE PAST COUPLE HOURS AT DAGGETT AND BICYCLE LAKE. SHOULD BE ABLE TO
ALLOW THE WIND HEADLINES TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE IF NOT A LITTLE
EARLY.
IVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP FORECAST OVERNIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS AS WELL AS ADJUST CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE
THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
-OUTLER-
&&
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM DEATH VALLEY N.P - BEATTY - NORTHEAST OF
RACHEL IN LINCOLN COUNTY. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN/MOJAVE DESERT
THIS AFTERNOON.
LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS BAND HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AROUND 20-25 MPH. THAT WOULD PLACE THE LINE THROUGH THE
PAHRUMP VALLEY BETWEEN 4-6 PM AND THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY BETWEEN 5 AND
7 PM. NORTHERN SEGMENT OF THE LINE WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS LINCOLN
COUNTY WITH THE LINE FORECAST TO CLEAR LINCOLN COUNTY BETWEEN 6-7
PM. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LAST TO CLEAR THE LAKE MEAD NRA AND MOHAVE
COUNTY WHICH WON`T OCCUR UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH, SMALL
HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.
HIGH WIND WARNING PANNING OUT IN THE THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT OF
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AS WE HAVE SEEN WIND GUSTS AT FORT IRWIN AND
BARSTOW-DAGGETT IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. WILL KEEP HIGH WIND WARNING AND
WIND ADVISORY POSTED UNTIL 11 PM PDT.
AN UPPER LOW WILL FORM OVER NEW MEXICO SUNDAY KEEPING THE REGION
UNDER A COOL NORTH FLOW. IN ADDITION TO THE THOSE WIND PRODUCTS
ALREADY OUT ADDED A WIND ADVISORY FOR POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS
FOR ESMERALDA/CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO,
DECIDED TO ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LAKE MEAD NRA
SOUTHWARD TO LAKE HAVASU. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVER
NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY WITHIN AN AREA OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WOULD BE OVER EXTREME EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY
AND EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY EARLY BEFORE DRY CONDITIONS SET IN. EXPECT
GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 20-30 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS LIKELY ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. WILL KEEP AN EYE
ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIND HEADLINE FOR THE RIVER ZONES. BREEZY
NORTH WINDS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY, YET LIGHTER THAN SUNDAY.
STRONGEST GUSTS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
WINDS WILL BE WEAKER AND TREND TOWARD TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FULLY TAKES CONTROL.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND MUCH WARMER THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMBING ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCE IN STRENGTH
AND TIMING, BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST /PERHAPS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRIDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY
LAST INTO THE WEEKEND, AS SOME WEAK TROUGHING LINGERS ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. FOR NOW, IT APPEARS ANY MOISTURE WITH THIS TROUGH IS
EXTREMELY LIMITED AND SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEARING THE
PAHRUMP VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EAST TOWARD THE LAS VEGAS
VALLEY AFTER 4 PM. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AROUND
THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY IMPACTING ALL CORRIDORS THROUGH ABOUT 7 PM THIS
EVENING. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL GET DIFFICULT TO FORECAST WITH NEAR
BY STORMS SO OPTED FOR A VARIABLE GROUPING IN THE TAF. SOME BLOWING
DUST COULD ALSO BRING A REDUCTION IN THE VISIBILITY. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO MENTION THE LOWER VISIBILITY. AFTER THE
STORMS CLEAR WINDS SHOULD SETTLE INTO A WESTERLY DIRECTION BEFORE
GOING MORE NORTHWESTERLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
.FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE MOJAVE DESERT EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA. WINDS OF 20 TO 30
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 EXPECTED WITH EVEN STRONGER WINDS IN THE KDAG
AREA AND FAR WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT WHERE GUSTS WILL EXCEED 50KTS.
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST LIKELY WITH DANGEROUS CROSSWINDS ON NORTH-
SOUTH ORIENTED RUNWAYS. FURTHER NORTH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TSTORMS
LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN MAINLY NORTH OF I-15 THROUGH
00Z. SHOWERS EXPAND ACROSS NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND FAR SOUTHERN NEVADA
AFTER 00Z AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ACCORDING TO
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...PIERCE
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
326 PM PDT FRI APR 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TODAY AND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. ALSO ON SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AND MOST
AREAS WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SATURDAY EVENING
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO VALLEY FLOORS AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO
TAPER OFF. COOL AND DRY ON SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. CURRENTLY...A SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA. THIS SHOWS UP NICELY ON THE WATER
VAPOR. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH THE
EVENING...DEVELOPING/MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS
AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. ANY ONE SHOWER COULD DROP
~0.25 INCHES OF RAIN. THE HRRR SHOWS CONVECTION ENDING AROUND 00Z
TO 03Z FROM WEST TO EAST.
WE WILL HAVE A BRIEF BREAK FROM SHOWERS LATER THIS EVENING...BUT
THAT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT WAVE DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH IS MUCH STRONGER AND IS NEGATIVELY TILTED.
DUE TO THE NEGATIVE TILT OF THE TROUGH...THE MODELS MAY BE A TAD
TOO QUICK WITH THE TROUGH. THEREFORE...THE HIGHEST QPF/SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE IN WHITE PINE AND NE NYE COUNTIES. ISOLATED TS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 95. SNOW
LEVELS WILL START OUT ABOVE 7000FT...BUT WILL LOWER TO MOST
VALLEY FLOORS BETWEEN 5500-6500FT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SNOW LEVELS IN FAR NW NV WILL START OUT AROUND 6500FT AND LOWER
TO 5000FT BY SATURDAY EVENING. EXPECTING LITTLE...IF ANY...IMPACTS
IN THE VALLEYS. THE COLD AIR WILL BE SLOW TO ARRIVE...AND GIVEN
THE HIGH SUN ANGLE...ROADS SHOULD REMAIN WET. ANY IMPACTS WILL BE
ABOVE 6500FT...BUT WILL STILL BE MINIMAL GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. A
TRACE TO ONE INCH OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE BELOW 6500FT...WITH
SEVERAL INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATION
VALLEYS IN NORTHERN ELKO AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES COULD LOCALLY SEE
UP TO 3 INCHES. LOCALLY A FOOT OF SNOW COULD FALL IN THE HIGHEST
MTNS IN WHITE PINE AND NE NYE COUNTIES.
IN ADDITION...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NW NYE WILL APPROACH WIND ADV CRITERIA DUE TO
PRESSURE GRADIENT/PRESSURE FALLS. MAV/MET GUIDANCE SUPPORTS STRONG
GUSTS AND THIS WILL BE MONITORED FOR AN ADV.
BY SUNDAY MORNING...MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY. A WARMING TREND
WILL COMMENCE ON MONDAY...WHERE 60S/70S WILL BE PREVALENT.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CWA
BY 18Z TUESDAY FOR A WARMING TREND AND DRY CONDITIONS. SHORTWAVE
PASSING TO THE NORTHWEST FLATTENS THE RIDGE A BIT BUT KEEPS WARM
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 DEGREES
BY WEDNESDAY. 12Z MODELS DIFFER WITH GFS NOW TRYING TO DIG A STRONG
TROF INTO NORTHERN CA WHILE THE EC MUCH WEAKER WITH THIS SHORTWAVE.
STILL...EITHER SOLUTION WOULD KEEP THE CWA DRY...BUT GFS WOULD IMPLY
WINDY CONDITIONS AND SOME INSTABILITY IN CENTRAL NV. UNTIL MODELS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...RIGHT NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD WEAKER EC
MODEL IN KEEPING THE CWA DRY WITH LESS WIND AND STABILITY.
&&
.AVIATION...RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE CWA WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING
BRIEFLY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AFTER 10Z AT KWMC...18Z AT KEKO
...AND 20Z AT KELY. THUS ON SATURDAY...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
AT LEAST MVFR AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY IFR AT THESE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
94/87/87
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
1159 AM PDT FRI APR 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TODAY AND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. ALSO ON SATURDAY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AND MOST AREAS
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SATURDAY EVENING SNOW
LEVELS WILL LOWER TO VALLEY FLOORS AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO
TAPER OFF. COOL AND DRY ON SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM UPDATE...DECIDED TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE SOME ISOLATED TS. CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS ARE SHOWING SOME ENHANCED CORES MOVING IN FROM
PERSHING/CHURCHILL COUNTIES. HRRR SHOWS THESE SHOWERS MOVING
EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 322 AM /
SYNOPSIS...VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TODAY AND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. ALSO ON SATURDAY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AND MOST AREAS
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SATURDAY EVENING SNOW
LEVELS WILL LOWER TO VALLEY FLOORS AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO
TAPER OFF. COOL AND DRY ON SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WITH ASSOCIATED JET MOVING OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. AS A RESULT PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEVADA TODAY WITH RAIN IN THE
VALLEYS AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL
RECEIVE A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN TODAY. WEAK INSTABILITY SETS
UP ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY TRIGGER
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCES FOR TS WILL BE OVER AND
NEAR GREAT BASIN PARK THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
THE FIRST WAVE OF MOISTURE EXITS EAST INTO UTAH THIS EVENING
FOLLOWED ALMOST IMMEDIATELY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS SECOND SYSTEM TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD MODERATE PRECIPITATION TO
MUCH OF THE REGION. ONE TO THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF WILL BE
COMMON ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. MANY OF THE
MOUNTAINS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA WILL ADD ANOTHER 2-6
INCHES OF SNOW ON SATURDAY. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER AN ELEVATION
BASED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY AS SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET MAY BE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY WITH
RESPECT TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES ON HIGH ELEVATION SUMMITS.
SHOWER ACTIVITY EXITS INTO UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS TIME
FOLLOWED UP WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. COLD NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY MORNING WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK
INTO THE 20S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. IF SKIES SCATTER OUT OR CLEAR
COMPLETELY EARLY SUNDAY...SOME VALLEYS MAY SEE SOME FREEZING FOG.
NORTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY WILL KEEP HIGHS ON THE COOL SIDE...GENERALLY
UPPER 50S...WHICH WOULD BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. TROUGH WILL BE EXITING
THE AREA TO OUR EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH QUICKLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SUNNY SKIES. SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE
NORTHWEST FLATTENS THE RIDGE A BIT BUT KEEPS WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER OUR REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES NOW LOOKING LIKE THEY WILL
APPROACH OR EXCEED 80 ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA`S VALLEYS ON
WEDNESDAY. DESPITE OUR VERY WARM LATE WINTER AND EARLY
SPRING...THIS WOULD BE THE FIRST 80 OF THE YEAR IN MOST LOCALES.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING OR PASSING TO THE NORTHWEST ON
THURSDAY WOULD LIKELY KNOCK TEMPS DOWN A BIT BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN
VERY WARM AND DRY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NOT FAR AWAY TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. RCM
AVIATION...RAIN SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE CWA FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. NORTHERN AND WESTERN TERMINALS
SHOULD AVOID THUNDER...BUT THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH
AND EAST AROUND KELY AND KTPH LATER IN THE DAY. CIGS LOOK TO
LOWER TO AT LEAST MVFR AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY IFR AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS AS THE SHOWERS MOVE IN...BUT SHOULD STAY HIGHER FOR THE
MOST PART FURTHER SOUTH. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BY THIS AFTERNOON AT
ALL TERMINALS WITH A FEW GUSTS UP AROUND 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY IMPROVE IN ALL REGARDS THIS EVENING. RCM
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
94/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1046 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE ON THE WEATHER MAP. THE LOW
WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS, WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER CLOUDY WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1046 AM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR
TODAY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BASED ON
CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...THE LATEST GFS LAMP GUIDANCE AND
THE 06Z GFS MOS GUIDANCE. FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC
FLOW FROM A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA AND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP IN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS TODAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE DAY TODAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 638 AM EDT FRIDAY...JUST A ROUTINE
LITTLE REFRESH TO INJECT CURRENT OBSERVATION/RADAR TRENDS INTO THE
FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS HAVE AGAIN
BLOSSOMED ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS, JUST
EAST OF BURLINGTON. 06Z NAM DIAGNOSTICS INDICATE THE FLOW IS STILL
MARGINALLY BLOCKED WITH RESPECT TO THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. THAT IS
PROBABLY CONTRIBUTING TO THE FORMATION OF THESE FLURRIES/SNOW
SHOWERS. FLOW GOES UNBLOCKED A BIT LATER THIS MORNING. I LIKED THE
09Z HRRR DEPICTION OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR TODAY, AND MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS TO BE SOMEWHAT IN LINE WITH THAT GUIDANCE.
THUS, THE CURRENT FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END
SHORTLY, THEN A BREAK, THEN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WHAT FOLLOWS ARE THE RAMBLINGS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING...
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER MAINE AT THIS EARLY HOUR.
RATHER ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW, WITH ONE
AREA OF SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE (AS EVIDENT WITH THE COOLER CLOUD
TOPS ON IR SATELLITE) LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT. THIS IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LIGHT SNOWS, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATION. THIS MOISTURE IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND THE CLOUD TOPS
ARE WARMING -- A SIGNAL THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING
OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO.
A MODERATE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE WEST AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE EAST. THUS IT WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY TODAY, WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-20MPH RANGE. LOOKS LIKE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX TO ROUGHLY 3000-4000FT, AND WINDS UP AT
THAT LEVEL ARE JUST A TAD STRONGER, SO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO
SEE A FEW GUSTS OVER 25 MPH.
OF NOTE WILL BE THE CHILLY TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ARE ON THE ORDER OF -2C TO -4C, WHICH UNDER PERFECTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE CLOUDS, WE`LL BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT, AND SHOULD
WORK OUT TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THUS MID/UPPER 40S IN
THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT, WE WILL SEE A LITTLE BIT OF
DESTABLIZATION THIS AFTERNOON, SO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP, MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK. ELEVATION WILL CONTROL WHETHER IT WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW.
IN GENERAL, SNOW LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT 1200
FEET. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY MINOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...THAT PESKY UPPER LOW WILL BE...WELL,
PESKY...ALL THE WAY INTO SUNDAY. MODELS ALL SHOW THE CURRENT UPPER
LOW OVER MAINE MOVING SOUTHEAST, HOWEVER ANOTHER LOW ROTATES IN TO
TAKE IT`S PLACE. REGARDLESS OF WHAT IS HAPPENING ALOFT, THE NET
RESULT FOR US ON THE GROUND WILL BE CONTINUED COOL, UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SCATTERED ABOUT. I THINK MOST OF
THE SHOWERS WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN, THANKS TO
SOME OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES FROM THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
INDICATIONS IN MODEL GUIDANCE THAT A LOW LEVEL BLOCKED FLOW WILL
AGAIN DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND FIRST THING SATURDAY, SO
PRECIPITATION MAY REFOCUS ITSELF A BIT MORE ALONG THE WEST SLOPES
OF THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AT THAT TIME, THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING HEAVY, SO JUST ANOTHER ROUND OF A DUSTING TO 1/2" OF
SNOW.
SHOULD BE ANOTHER SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE THAT ROTATES IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE
TRIED TO PAINT IN AN INCREASE OF POPS FROM NORTHERN VERMONT
INITIALLY AND THEN SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING SUNDAY.
STILL DON`T THINK IT WILL BE A VERY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EVENT, JUST MORE IN THE WAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS (RAIN & SNOW
STILL DEPENDING ON ELEVATION).
TEMPERATURES DO LOOK LIKE THEY WILL EVERY SO SLOWLY MODERATE EACH
DAY AS THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TAKES ON MORE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
SOURCE, BUT STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. HUNG WITH A MIX OF GUIDANCE,
SO LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 50S BOTH WEEKEND DAYS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S. COLDER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT FRIDAY...LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL
INFLUENCED BY CLOSED UPPER LOW IN GULF OF MAINE SLOWLY EXITING
EAST BY MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY PERHAPS ANOTHER TROUGH OR CUT OFF BY
LATE NEXT WEEK.
THE INFLUENCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW DIMINISHES WITH TIME WITH BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS BEING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY-MONDAY
NIGHT. COLD ENOUGH ALOFT THAT SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AT NIGHT.
SOME SHORT WAVE RIDGING TRYING TO SQUEEZE INTO THIS UGLY FLOW
PATTERN FOR TUE-WED THEN MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING/STRENGTH OF NEXT
POTENTIAL TROUGH/UPPER LOW FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL (NORMAL U50S-L60S)THROUGH MON
THEN NEAR NORMAL MID WEEK PERHAPS TURNING COOLER TOWARD END OF NEXT
WEEK. MIN TEMPERATURES LARGELY 30S-L40S WITH UPPER 20S IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY UNDER A
BKN-OVC SKY. SOME INSTABILITY/WRAPAROUND SHOWERS MAY RETURN...MAINLY
ACROSS MOUNTAINS AFT 21Z FRI AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AFT 00Z
SAT...AFT 00Z POSSIBLE MVFR AT KSLK/KMPV. SURFACE WINDS WNW
10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD -
VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...WGH/NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
737 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE ON THE WEATHER MAP. THE LOW
WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS, WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER CLOUDY WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 638 AM EDT FRIDAY...JUST A ROUTINE LITTLE REFRESH TO INJECT
CURRENT OBSERVATION/RADAR TRENDS INTO THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
FORECAST. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS HAVE AGAIN BLOSSOMED ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS, JUST EAST OF BURLINGTON.
06Z NAM DIAGNOSTICS INDICATE THE FLOW IS STILL MARGINALLY BLOCKED
WITH RESPECT TO THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. THAT IS PROBABLY CONTRIBUTING
TO THE FORMATION OF THESE FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS. FLOW GOES
UNBLOCKED A BIT LATER THIS MORNING. I LIKED THE 09Z HRRR DEPICTION
OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR TODAY, AND MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
POPS TO BE SOMEWHAT IN LINE WITH THAT GUIDANCE. THUS, THE CURRENT
FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END SHORTLY, THEN A BREAK,
THEN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
WHAT FOLLOWS ARE THE RAMBLINGS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING...
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER MAINE AT THIS EARLY HOUR.
RATHER ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW, WITH ONE
AREA OF SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE (AS EVIDENT WITH THE COOLER CLOUD
TOPS ON IR SATELLITE) LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT. THIS IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LIGHT SNOWS, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATION. THIS MOISTURE IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND THE CLOUD TOPS
ARE WARMING -- A SIGNAL THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING
OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO.
A MODERATE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE WEST AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE EAST. THUS IT WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY TODAY, WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-20MPH RANGE. LOOKS LIKE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX TO ROUGHLY 3000-4000FT, AND WINDS UP AT
THAT LEVEL ARE JUST A TAD STRONGER, SO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO
SEE A FEW GUSTS OVER 25 MPH.
OF NOTE WILL BE THE CHILLY TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ARE ON THE ORDER OF -2C TO -4C, WHICH UNDER PERFECTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE CLOUDS, WE`LL BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT, AND SHOULD
WORK OUT TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THUS MID/UPPER 40S IN
THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT, WE WILL SEE A LITTLE BIT OF
DESTABLIZATION THIS AFTERNOON, SO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP, MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK. ELEVATION WILL CONTROL WHETHER IT WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW.
IN GENERAL, SNOW LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT 1200
FEET. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY MINOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...THAT PESKY UPPER LOW WILL BE...WELL,
PESKY...ALL THE WAY INTO SUNDAY. MODELS ALL SHOW THE CURRENT UPPER
LOW OVER MAINE MOVING SOUTHEAST, HOWEVER ANOTHER LOW ROTATES IN TO
TAKE IT`S PLACE. REGARDLESS OF WHAT IS HAPPENING ALOFT, THE NET
RESULT FOR US ON THE GROUND WILL BE CONTINUED COOL, UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SCATTERED ABOUT. I THINK MOST OF
THE SHOWERS WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN, THANKS TO
SOME OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES FROM THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
INDICATIONS IN MODEL GUIDANCE THAT A LOW LEVEL BLOCKED FLOW WILL
AGAIN DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND FIRST THING SATURDAY, SO
PRECIPITATION MAY REFOCUS ITSELF A BIT MORE ALONG THE WEST SLOPES
OF THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AT THAT TIME, THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING HEAVY, SO JUST ANOTHER ROUND OF A DUSTING TO 1/2" OF
SNOW.
SHOULD BE ANOTHER SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE THAT ROTATES IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE
TRIED TO PAINT IN AN INCREASE OF POPS FROM NORTHERN VERMONT
INITIALLY AND THEN SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING SUNDAY.
STILL DON`T THINK IT WILL BE A VERY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EVENT, JUST MORE IN THE WAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS (RAIN & SNOW
STILL DEPENDING ON ELEVATION).
TEMPERATURES DO LOOK LIKE THEY WILL EVERY SO SLOWLY MODERATE EACH
DAY AS THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TAKES ON MORE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
SOURCE, BUT STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. HUNG WITH A MIX OF GUIDANCE,
SO LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 50S BOTH WEEKEND DAYS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S. COLDER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT FRIDAY...LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL
INFLUENCED BY CLOSED UPPER LOW IN GULF OF MAINE SLOWLY EXITING
EAST BY MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY PERHAPS ANOTHER TROUGH OR CUT OFF BY
LATE NEXT WEEK.
THE INFLUENCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW DIMINISHES WITH TIME WITH BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS BEING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY-MONDAY
NIGHT. COLD ENOUGH ALOFT THAT SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AT NIGHT.
SOME SHORT WAVE RIDGING TRYING TO SQUEEZE INTO THIS UGLY FLOW
PATTERN FOR TUE-WED THEN MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING/STRENGTH OF NEXT
POTENTIAL TROUGH/UPPER LOW FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL (NORMAL U50S-L60S)THROUGH MON
THEN NEAR NORMAL MID WEEK PERHAPS TURNING COOLER TOWARD END OF NEXT
WEEK. MIN TEMPERATURES LARGELY 30S-L40S WITH UPPER 20S IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY UNDER A
BKN-OVC SKY. SOME INSTABILITY/WRAPAROUND SHOWERS MAY RETURN...MAINLY
ACROSS MOUNTAINS AFT 21Z FRI AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AFT 00Z
SAT...AFT 00Z POSSIBLE MVFR AT KSLK/KMPV. SURFACE WINDS WNW
10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD -
VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
UPDATED 1102 PM THURSDAY...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE
BARTON RIVER NEAR COVENTRY. THE RIVER WENT ABOVE FLOOD STAGE EARLY
THIS MORNING AND WENT UP QUICKLY...CRESTING AROUND 8.8 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON. SINCE THEN...THE WATER LEVEL OF THE RIVER HAS BEGUN TO
FALL...AND AT 11 PM IT WAS AT 8.4 FEET. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY THE BARTON RIVER NEAR COVENTRY IS
THE ONLY RIVER THAT WE EXPECT TO REACH FLOOD STAGE AS MOST OF THE
OTHER RIVERS AND STREAMS HAVE CRESTED BELOW FLOOD STAGE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
HYDROLOGY...TEAM BTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
646 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE ON THE WEATHER MAP. THE LOW
WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS, WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER CLOUDY WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 638 AM EDT FRIDAY...JUST A ROUTINE LITTLE REFRESH TO INJECT
CURRENT OBSERVATION/RADAR TRENDS INTO THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
FORECAST. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS HAVE AGAIN BLOSSOMED ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS, JUST EAST OF BURLINGTON.
06Z NAM DIAGNOSTICS INDICATE THE FLOW IS STILL MARGINALLY BLOCKED
WITH RESPECT TO THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. THAT IS PROBABLY CONTRIBUTING
TO THE FORMATION OF THESE FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS. FLOW GOES
UNBLOCKED A BIT LATER THIS MORNING. I LIKED THE 09Z HRRR DEPICTION
OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR TODAY, AND MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
POPS TO BE SOMEWHAT IN LINE WITH THAT GUIDANCE. THUS, THE CURRENT
FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END SHORTLY, THEN A BREAK,
THEN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
WHAT FOLLOWS ARE THE RAMBLINGS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING...
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER MAINE AT THIS EARLY HOUR.
RATHER ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW, WITH ONE
AREA OF SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE (AS EVIDENT WITH THE COOLER CLOUD
TOPS ON IR SATELLITE) LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT. THIS IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LIGHT SNOWS, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATION. THIS MOISTURE IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND THE CLOUD TOPS
ARE WARMING -- A SIGNAL THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING
OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO.
A MODERATE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE WEST AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE EAST. THUS IT WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY TODAY, WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-20MPH RANGE. LOOKS LIKE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX TO ROUGHLY 3000-4000FT, AND WINDS UP AT
THAT LEVEL ARE JUST A TAD STRONGER, SO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO
SEE A FEW GUSTS OVER 25 MPH.
OF NOTE WILL BE THE CHILLY TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ARE ON THE ORDER OF -2C TO -4C, WHICH UNDER PERFECTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE CLOUDS, WE`LL BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT, AND SHOULD
WORK OUT TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THUS MID/UPPER 40S IN
THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT, WE WILL SEE A LITTLE BIT OF
DESTABLIZATION THIS AFTERNOON, SO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP, MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK. ELEVATION WILL CONTROL WHETHER IT WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW.
IN GENERAL, SNOW LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT 1200
FEET. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY MINOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...THAT PESKY UPPER LOW WILL BE...WELL,
PESKY...ALL THE WAY INTO SUNDAY. MODELS ALL SHOW THE CURRENT UPPER
LOW OVER MAINE MOVING SOUTHEAST, HOWEVER ANOTHER LOW ROTATES IN TO
TAKE IT`S PLACE. REGARDLESS OF WHAT IS HAPPENING ALOFT, THE NET
RESULT FOR US ON THE GROUND WILL BE CONTINUED COOL, UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SCATTERED ABOUT. I THINK MOST OF
THE SHOWERS WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN, THANKS TO
SOME OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES FROM THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
INDICATIONS IN MODEL GUIDANCE THAT A LOW LEVEL BLOCKED FLOW WILL
AGAIN DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND FIRST THING SATURDAY, SO
PRECIPITATION MAY REFOCUS ITSELF A BIT MORE ALONG THE WEST SLOPES
OF THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AT THAT TIME, THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING HEAVY, SO JUST ANOTHER ROUND OF A DUSTING TO 1/2" OF
SNOW.
SHOULD BE ANOTHER SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE THAT ROTATES IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE
TRIED TO PAINT IN AN INCREASE OF POPS FROM NORTHERN VERMONT
INITIALLY AND THEN SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING SUNDAY.
STILL DON`T THINK IT WILL BE A VERY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EVENT, JUST MORE IN THE WAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS (RAIN & SNOW
STILL DEPENDING ON ELEVATION).
TEMPERATURES DO LOOK LIKE THEY WILL EVERY SO SLOWLY MODERATE EACH
DAY AS THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TAKES ON MORE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
SOURCE, BUT STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. HUNG WITH A MIX OF GUIDANCE,
SO LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 50S BOTH WEEKEND DAYS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S. COLDER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT FRIDAY...LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL
INFLUENCED BY CLOSED UPPER LOW IN GULF OF MAINE SLOWLY EXITING
EAST BY MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY PERHAPS ANOTHER TROUGH OR CUT OFF BY
LATE NEXT WEEK.
THE INFLUENCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW DIMINISHES WITH TIME WITH BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS BEING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY-MONDAY
NIGHT. COLD ENOUGH ALOFT THAT SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AT NIGHT.
SOME SHORT WAVE RIDGING TRYING TO SQUEEZE INTO THIS UGLY FLOW
PATTERN FOR TUE-WED THEN MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING/STRENGTH OF NEXT
POTENTIAL TROUGH/UPPER LOW FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL (NORMAL U50S-L60S)THROUGH MON
THEN NEAR NORMAL MID WEEK PERHAPS TURNING COOLER TOWARD END OF NEXT
WEEK. MIN TEMPERATURES LARGELY 30S-L40S WITH UPPER 20S IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR LATER
FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WEST/NORTHWESTERLY HAS LEAD TO
TERRAIN-DRIVEN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SLK/MPV AND
WESTERN SLOPES JUST E OF BTV BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE BY
MORNING. NOT MUCH IMPACT EXPECTED AT BTV/PBG/MSS EXCEPT FOR A
POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWER...WITH VFR IN THE FORECAST. MPV/SLK WILL SEE
PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS...WITH MVFR/IFR LIKELY. RUT EXPECTED TO
SEE SOME LOWER CEILINGS (MVFR) AND A FEW SHOWERS NEARBY. LOWER
CEILINGS/SHOWERS GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AND LIFT ON FRIDAY WITH ALL
SITES VFR BY 16Z. SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS MAY RETURN...MAINLY
ACROSS MOUNTAINS AFT 21Z FRI. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY ANTICIPATED
TO BE OUT OF THE WEST FROM 5-15 KNOTS...WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS...MAINLY ON FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD -
VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
UPDATED 1102 PM THURSDAY...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE
BARTON RIVER NEAR COVENTRY. THE RIVER WENT ABOVE FLOOD STAGE EARLY
THIS MORNING AND WENT UP QUICKLY...CRESTING AROUND 8.8 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON. SINCE THEN...THE WATER LEVEL OF THE RIVER HAS BEGUN TO
FALL...AND AT 11 PM IT WAS AT 8.4 FEET. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY THE BARTON RIVER NEAR COVENTRY IS
THE ONLY RIVER THAT WE EXPECT TO REACH FLOOD STAGE AS MOST OF THE
OTHER RIVERS AND STREAMS HAVE CRESTED BELOW FLOOD STAGE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
HYDROLOGY...TEAM BTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
129 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY, KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL. SNOW SHOWER AND
FLURRY ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY, WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY WITH SUNSHINE
EXPECTED.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC THIS EVENING WHICH
CONTINUES TO LEAD TO A COLD AND MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR ACROSS
CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WERE VERY CHILLY
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR RUNNING AROUND -8C TO -10C AT THIS TIME.
HRRR, RAP. WRF NMM, WRF ARW AND NAM12 ALL SHOW 850 MB TEMPS
DROPPING TO -11C OR SO BY 12Z. LAKE ONTARIO AND ERIE WATER
TEMPERATURES WERE ARND +1 TO 3C LEADING TO SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE THAT WAS WRAPPING ARND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO LATE SEASON SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES OVERNIGHT.
ONE SHORT WAVE WAS PASSING EAST OF OUR REGION AT THIS TIME SO THE
RADAR COVERAGE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES HAS DIMINISHED AT
THIS TIME. THE RAP SHOWS ANOTHER SHRT WAVE WILL PASS BY ARND 5-6Z
WHICH SHUD RAMP SN SHOWER ACVTY UP A BIT...ESPECIALLY IN NC NY
WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE LAKE MOISTURE ON A W-NW LL FLOW PATTERN.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER A STRATOCUMULUS
DECK THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A FEW FLURRIES AT TIMES.
FOR FRIDAY...THE STRG LATE APRIL SUN WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK UP THE
LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE AND CLOUDS AND WE SHUD SEE SOME BREAKS BY
AFTERNOON. OUR WRN AND SRN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA LIKELY WILL
BREAK OUT AND BECOME PC TO MS BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURE MOST AREAS
OVERNIGHT. THERE IS TOO MUCH WIND AND CLOUDS FOR ANY FROST AND
OUR GROWING SEASON HAS NOT BEGUN YET SO NO MENTION OF FROST IN OUR
ZONES FOR OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STACKED CYCLONE DRIFTS FROM MAINE TO OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS
PERIOD. AFTER WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS, ESPECIALLY OVER NERN FA, DRY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW SHOULD YIELD FAIR WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY.
AFTER MAXES IN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S ON FRIDAY, BL-850MB
TEMPS WILL REBOUND SEVERAL DEGREES CELSIUS FOR SATURDAY. GIVEN DRY
ATMOSPHERE AND GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN, THINK MAX TEMPS WILL BOUNCE
BACK INTO THE LOWER 50S IN MOST SPOTS, THOUGH THIS WILL STILL BE
8 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS.
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH VA/NC ON
SUNDAY, WHILE A COOL RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. BELIEVE THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN SOUTH
AND WEST OF OUR FA, THOUGH A WEAK WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW MAY
SPAWN A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER UP THE LAKE PLAIN.
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
THE STACKED UPPR LOW WILL MOVE AS FAR EAST AS MAINE AND WE WILL
REMAIN UNDER A NW FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THRU FRIDAY AS WE WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SAT WILL BECOME LESS AS THE
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SHIFT SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST AND THE LOW
SHIFTS SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST OFF THE EAST COAST. PRECIP TYPE WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON SFC TEMPS... THUS SNOW POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND RAIN DURING THE DAY TIME.
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD
AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPS ON SAT WILL SLIGHTLY REBOUND INTO THE LOW TO UPPR
40S. AS THE UPPR LOW SHIFT EAST ON SAT... TEMPS WILL BE ABLE TO
RISE INTO THE LOWER 50S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO SHOW A DEEP AND VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
WOBBLING OFF THE NE CST ON MON. NLY FLOW BHD THE FLOW WITH THE LWR
UPR HGTS WILL KEEP ISLTD TO SCT SHOWRS OVER THE FCST AREA...ESP
OVER THE NY ZONES...WITH BLO NRML DAYTIME TEMPS.
IRONICALLY...THE EURO IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM AND
SHOWS SOME IMPRVMT LTR TUE INTO THU WITH WEAK SFC RDGG AND A
NARROW RDG ALOFT. GFS WANTS TO KEEP THE UPR LOW HANGING ARND AND
IN FACT CAPTURES A SRN STREAM SYSTEM LATE IN THE PD TO ENHANCE
THE UPR TROF.
MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THE FCST IN THE LONG TERM LDG
TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST...NOT ALL THAT UNUSUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SO...CONTD WITH THE HPC GUID IDEA OF LOW CHANCE OR SLGT CHANCE
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM...ESP IN THE NRN AND ERN ZONES.
WITH THE NLY FLOW...TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO NRML...ESP DURING THE
DAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z FRI UPDATE... MAINLY UNRESTRICTED/VFR CONDS WILL BE WITH US
FOR THE VALID TAF PD (THROUGH 06Z SAT). THE EXCEPTION COULD BE
AROUND DAYBREAK (EITHER SIDE OF 12Z)...WHEN SCTD SNOW SHWRS/LWR
CIG BASES COULD PROVIDE MVFR/FUEL ALT CONDS...WITH A LOWER
PROBABILITY OF BRIEF IFR RESTRICTIONS AT KSYR/KITH/KBGM.
NW SFC WINDS AROUND 10 KT EARLY THIS MRNG...WILL INCREASE AND
BECOME GUSTY DURING THE LATE MRNG-AFTN HRS...BEFORE DIMINISHING
AGN THIS EVE (AFTER 00Z SAT).
.OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...VFR.
MON-TUE...OCNL -SHRA...WITH BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY NY
TERMINALS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/DJP
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DJN/MLJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
752 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH AND WILL BE NEAR OR
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE GETTING SHOVED
SOUTHWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SMALL RISK FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN INTO SUNDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE A STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DRY HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO RETURN BY FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 530 PM SATURDAY...BASED ON LATEST 88D RADAR MOSAIC TRENDS
AND LATEST VIS AND IR SAT IMAGERY TRENDS AND LATEST 18Z VARIOUS
MODEL RUNS...HAVE UPDATED EVENING AND OVERNIGHT POPS AND SKY
CONDITIONS. BASICALLY LOWERING POPS TRENDS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT TO LOW CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED. IN ADDITION...HAVE
SKY CONDITIONS IN THE CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY/VARIABLY CLOUDY TREND
FOR THE EVENING THRU OVERNIGHT. IF SKIES PARTIALLY CLEAR
ENOUGH...FOG COULD BECOME AN ISSUE DURING THE PRE-DAWN SUNDAY
HOURS.
PREVIOUS........................................................
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...SEVERE THREAT HAS BECOME REMOTE FOR THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A STABLE ATMOSPHERE
WITH A SHIELD OF LIGHT AND COOL STRATIFORM RAIN MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AND OUT TO SEA. AT THE SURFACE A DIFFUSE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT IS WAVERING ABOUT WHILE A WARM FRONT MOVES UP
FROM THE SOUTH. OVERALL SURFACE PATTERN IS NOT WELL DEFINED AND
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONG GUIDANCE THE GENERAL TREND IS
TOWARDS WEAKER THAN ANTICIPATED CONVECTION AND SPARSER COVERAGE.
NAM AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT POPS.
CONSIDERING OTHER GUIDANCE ON HAND AND GENERAL UNCERTAINTY WILL
KEEP IN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
BUFKIT AND OTHER DATA SHOW BETTER INSTABILITY SHOWING UP THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SO MAKING CHARACTER OF PRECIP MORE
CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AND WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER.
THE HRRR HAS BEEN VERY HELPFUL TODAY IN DEPICTING COVERAGE AND
TRENDS SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN ON ITS GUIDANCE FOR THE NEAR TERM.
THIS MODEL HAS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS A MORE MODERATE LINE OF CONVECTION
MOVING THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND WARM
FROPA WILL KEEP TEMPS OVERNIGHT ON THE MODERATE SIDE...IN VARIOUS
SHADES OF THE 60S. THIS IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN TODAYS DAYTIME
READINGS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BE SITUATED VERY NEAR
OR JUST N OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. MODEL PROFILES SHOW A DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RELEGATED TO THE LOWEST 3
KFT OR SO IN THE WARM SECTOR. A 50 KT JET WILL BE LOCATED 3-5 KFT
AGL SUNDAY. THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY ON SUN
WHILE THE NAM PORTRAYS MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES UP TO AROUND 1500
J/KG AND THIS SEEMS MUCH MORE REASONABLE. THE INSTABILITY WILL BE
SHRINKING SOUTHWARD WITH TIME AS THE LAST OF THE WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TO CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN WELL OFF THE
NC COAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS ACTUALLY SHOW A STRONG FRONTAL INVERSION
DEVELOPING FROM N TO S...LASTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GRAND STRAND
AND SOUTH SANTEE RIVER AREAS BY MID AFTERNOON SUN. CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING IS NOT HIGH...BUT TRENDS LOOK TO BE ON THE RIGHT TRACK.
GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF DRY AIR IN STRONG AND DEEPENING WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...WOULD EXPECT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TO BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM TO INCLUDE HAIL AND/OR STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
REACHES OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE
GREATEST...AS WELL AS PERHAPS WHERE SEABREEZE INTERACTS WITH THE
FRONT. ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL INCLUDE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL SHOW POPS TRENDING LOWER FROM N TO S LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVE HOURS.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROUNDING A RETROGRADING AN UPPER LOW
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL HELP TO REINFORCE THE COOLER AND
DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE FORECAST AREA MON AND MON NIGHT. A
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE MON WILL BE BATTLING THE COOL NW FLOW WITH
850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND 3 DEG C.
HIGHS SUN WILL LIKELY VARY FROM N TO S AND DEPENDING ON CLOUD
COVER...THERE COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS THE
AREA. WILL FORECAST LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH SANTEE
RIVER AREA WITH MID AND UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER...THE
NORTHERN REACHES OF THE AREA COULD BE STYMIED IN THE LOWER 70S
GIVEN THEIR PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY AND GREATER CLOUD COVER.
HIGHS ON SUN WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR THE MOST PART...ONE TO
TWO CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WANING DAYS OF APRIL. AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE FALLING THROUGH THE 40S AND 30S
ON MON AS DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW BUILDS INTO THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS. THE COOLEST NIGHT...MON NIGHT...WILL BE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY....MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A MID LEVEL SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT
THE AREA TO SOME EXTENT FOR MIDWEEK. SEVERAL MODELS KEEP THE
TROUGH MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE OTHERS PHASE THE SYSTEM WITH
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY CREATING A MORE DYNAMIC SYSTEM AND PROLIFIC
RAIN MAKER FOR OUR AREA. UNTIL THE MODELS CONVERGE ON A DEPENDABLE
SOLUTION...PRUDENCE CALLS FOR KEEPING POPS IN THE FORECAST FROM
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST
WHICH WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED TO NEAR A KLBT TO NORTH OF
KILM LINE EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS FROM
THE SW-W SUGGESTS MVFR CIGS MAY DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING
LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS SHOULD BE AT A MINIMUM THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ENE FROM GEORGIA. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY
SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS BUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD STILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE TERMINALS 04-07Z AS THE ACTIVITY DISSIPATES.
SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. VSBYS SHOULD
BEGIN TO DECREASE WITH IFR VSBYS AND TEMPO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS MODERATE BUT THERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING AND DURATION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON AT THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NW-N. GOOD CHANCE OF
IFR CIGS BECOMING MVFR AT KILM/KLBT DURING THE MORNING...WITH MVFR
CIGS AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS. SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT THE SOUTHERNMOST TERMINALS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SHOWERS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 530 PM SATURDAY...LATEST MODEL RUNS NOT ALL THAT CONVINCING
ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE CURRENT FORECAST WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT SEAS
TRENDS FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WILL HOLD ONTO WHAT IS
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED...INCLUDING HOLDING OUT WITH THE ISSUANCE OF
A POSSIBLE SCEC.
PREVIOUS...................................................
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME SW
TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS WILL
STAY IN THE GENERAL 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH 2 TO 4 FT OF SEAS FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS. IF SO...EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE FROM THE W OR
SW SUN MORNING...THEN VEER TO THE NW AND N AS A FRONT SINKS BACK
TO THE S THROUGH THE DAY. THE FRONT MAY NOT MOVE S OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST WATERS TIL LATE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A MODEST
SURGE SUN NIGHT AND THEN A SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONE MON NIGHT AS A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW RETROGRADING
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST WHEN THE WIND
DIRECTION IS FROM THE N OR NNW...UP TO 15 TO 20 KT MON NIGHT.
SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT MOST OF THE TIME. HOWEVER...EXPECT SEAS TO
BUILD UP TO 5 FT DURING THE SURGES...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
5 FT SEAS MON NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...DESPITE AN INTERESTING AND POSSIBLY
DYNAMIC SYNOPTIC WEATHER SCENARIO AT THE MID LEVELS...THE SURFACE
FEATURES DRIVING THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE RATHER BENIGN IN
COMPARISON. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN A NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY TEN KNOTS OR LESS. FORECAST CHALLENGE THEN ARISES AS
MODELS ARE STILL UNSURE HOW TO HANDLE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OR
UP THE EAST COAST BOTH IN A PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH PERSPECTIVE.
WILL MAINTAIN THE MODEST OFFSHORE FLOW FOR THURSDAY DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH/REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1019 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOWS. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE
DOING WELL WITH INHERITED MINIMUM TEMP FCST SO HAVE USED RUC FOR
GUIDANCE ON WIND AND HOURLY TEMPS. ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY MADE AT 7 PM
WORKED OUT WELL SO NO FURTHER CHANGES EXPECTED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
FORECAST UPDATE WILL ADDRESS MINOR SKY ISSUES...WITH EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA CLEARING OUT A BIT MORE RAPIDLY THAN PREV FCST INDICATED.
WITH MID LVL DECK WELL OFF TO WEST...WILL DECREASE SKY OVER ERN ND
THROUGH THE NIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE PERIOD.
CLOUDS HAVE MOVED MOSTLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER AS DRIER AIR HAS
BEEN COMING IN FROM THE EAST UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME CU REDEVELOPMENT IN THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT FOR
THE MOST PART THE MINNESOTA SIDE HAS BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA STILL SOCKED IN WITH STRATUS. THE RAP
925-850MB RH FIELD HAS BEEN DOING DECENT WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...AND IT HAS THE HIGHER RH VALUES SLOWLY MOVING WEST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS COMING IN THROUGH
WESTERN ND AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
THINK THE CLOUDS AND WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE 40S WHILE THE EAST WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES...DROPPING DOWN BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. THE DRY
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO COME IN AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO
OUR NORTHEAST. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ENTERING CENTRAL ND...BUT ALL HAVE THE PRECIP ALONG THAT BOUNDARY
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES EAST. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVE THE DRY
ENVIRONMENT AND NOT MUCH UPPER FORCING...SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT
UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
TODAY WITH HIGHER CLOUDS AND A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MASS. KEPT
READINGS IN THE 60S.
SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS
INTO SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WITH THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO
THE FAR WESTERN CWA. THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...BUT IT WILL BE FIGHTING AGAINST
CONTINUED DRY AIR COMING IN FROM THE SFC HIGH TO THE EAST.
INCLUDED SOME SHOWERS GETTING INTO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT THINK THAT THE BULK OF PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES OVER NORTH AMERICA
WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK SFC TROUGH AXIS INTO THE CWA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME GOOD Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE FOR
RISING MOTION. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS HIGH THROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AXIS...WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED. LEANED TOWARDS THE DRIER GFS/NAM RATHER THAN THE
WETTER INTERNATIONAL MODELS GIVEN THE TENDENCY LATELY FOR
OVERDOING RAIN. WE SHOULD DRY OUT BY TUESDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S IN MOST
OF THE CWA BUT THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES COULD STAY IN THE 50S
WITH RAIN COMING IN EARLIER. MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
REGION.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. GEM NOT SHOWING AS STRONG A RIDGE AS
THE OUTLIER...SO FAVORED AN ECMWF/GFS BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST.
THUS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ON THE WARMER SIDE...WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY REACHING CLOSE TO THE MID 70S. OTHERWISE...THE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
VFR CONDS EXPECTED WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...SPEICHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1145 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015
QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
THERE IS SOME MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY THIS EVENING PER THE 00 UTC
BISMARCK SOUNDING. A LOW LEVEL JET HAS KICKED IN PROVIDED ENOUGH
LIFT FOR CONVECTION TO OCCUR AND SPARK A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY THROUGH THIS MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015
TRENDED THE POPS EAST WITH THE RADAR RETURNS. HRRR MODEL CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP SHOWERS OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT. CLEARING WEST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 724 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015
UPDATE FOR POPS AND CLOUDS MAINLY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IDENTIFIED
BY RUC MODEL CENTERED NEAR THE BLACK HILLS WITH A SOUTHEAST TO
EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT ACROSS ALL OF NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN FAVORABLE SHEAR AND MAY SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE LIMITED
MOISTURE ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND REMAIN IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 503 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015
GETTING REPORTS OF SNOW FROM STANLEY AND PARSHALL AREAS. LOOKS
LIKE COOLING TO THE WET BULB IS CREATING ENOUGH COOLING FOR SNOW
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.
OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR...THE MAJORITY OF
PRECIPITATION IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND DUE TO DRY AIR IN THE
SUB-800 MB LAYER. THE 16-18 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS HAVE THE BEST
HANDLING OF THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY THAT WHICH IS
REACHING THE GROUND...AND WILL WEIGH HEAVILY ON THEIR SOLUTIONS
THROUGH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEREAFTER...THE 12 AND INCOMING 18
UTC GLOBAL AND HIGH RESOLUTION SUITES ARE IN AGREEMENT ON ELEVATED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING TONIGHT ACROSS THE JAMES AND INTO THE RED RIVER
VALLEYS BY 05 UTC WITH A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE LOW ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. GIVEN MARGINALLY POSITIVE
SHOWALTER VALUES...WILL NOT PUT IN THUNDER AT THIS TIME. FRIDAY
APPEARS TO BE DRY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN
THE STRONGER LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TROUGH.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015
A SPLIT FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND NORTHERN STREAM. THIS WILL
ULTIMATELY SET UP AN INCREASINGLY WET/UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES TO PUSH ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE LATEST
ECMWF IS ADVERTISING A MORE CONTINUOUS RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS/CANADIAN GEM HAS A MORE DISTINCT START/END
TIME WITH EACH WAVE. UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE ABOVE MODELS ABOVE.
EXPECT A BRIEF DRYING AND WARMING TREND BY MIDWEEK...THEN A
PROGRESSIVE AND POSSIBLY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP LATE
IN THE EXTENDED.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A TRANSITORY 700MB-500MB RIDGE
DEVELOPS OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR MOST AREAS
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ADVECT AN AREA OF
MOISTURE INTO THE WEST. THIS MOISTURE WILL CONVERGE INTO AN
APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT IN EASTERN MONTANA. THUS POPS BECOME
LIKELY THEN CATEGORICAL SATURDAY IN THE WEST...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
IN THE EAST AS MID LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS INTACT UNTIL 00Z SUNDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS MENTIONED ABOVE THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE ECMWF AND GFS/GEM...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. PER GFS/GEM...THE SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE
MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CANADA WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT STALLS UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS FEEDING MOISTURE
INTO NORTH DAKOTA. THE GFS/GEM MODELS TREND TOWARD A CESSATION TO
THE PRECIPITATION UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE THE FRONT BECOMES
RE-ENERGIZED AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. WITH THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE ALREADY IN
PLACE...THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EVENT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE LATEST
ECMWF REALLY DOES NOT STOP THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE INITIAL
SHORTWAVE...RATHER KEEPS THE SURGE MAINLY CONTINUOUS IN THE WEST AND
SLOWLY SPREADS IT EAST AND NORTH THROUGH MONDAY. TOTAL PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS COULD RANGE BETWEEN A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH IN THE WEST TO
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PRECIPITATION
WILL BE EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY
UPPER RIDGING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION RAMPS UP
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WHICH
IS FORECAST TO CROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE GFS
SHOWS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING IN THE NORTH BEHIND THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 6HRS SLOWER WITH THE
COLD FRONT...NOT ARRIVING INTO THE NORTHWEST UNTIL AROUND 00Z
THURSDAY. THURSDAY LOOKS DRY...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE BRIEF AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS ALREADY APPROACHING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. VCTS POSSIBLE NEAR JAMESTOWN AROUND 06Z.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1136 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015
NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015
PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE REGION WITH VARIOUS WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. ONE WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE HAS
ALREADY BEEN HEADING TOWARDS WESTERN ND...WITH SOME DECENT RADAR
RETURNS OVER THAT PART OF THE STATE. SOME LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN
REACHING THE GROUND...ALTHOUGH NOT AS MUCH AS RADAR WOULD
INDICATE. DEW POINTS OVER THE CWA HAVE BEEN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO TEENS. THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE THE PRECIP DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES
EAST...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR. THINK THE
BETTER SHOT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATER TONIGHT AS A MORE
SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO WY AND SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER WESTERN SD. THERE WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION/FRONTOGENESIS OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT.
SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE SEVERAL TENTHS OF QPF TONIGHT...BUT GIVEN
HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE TO SATURATE WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE LOWER END
FOR PRECIP AMOUNTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MOSTLY ABOVE ZERO AS THE
COLUMN SATURATES...BUT SOME SNOW MIXING IN ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE PRECIP IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
TOMORROW...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS...AND
THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES SPREADING NORTH AND EAST AS THE BEST MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. CONTINUED TO KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES FOR FRIDAY
MORNING...LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S IN THE EAST...BUT THINK THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH PEAKS OF SUN TO GET ABOVE 50 IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES WHERE IT WILL BE DRIER. PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT KEPT SOME LOWER POPS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING IN
OUR SOUTHEAST TO COORDINATE WITH NEIGHBORS. CLOUDS AND INCREASING
EASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 30S FRIDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY...BUT
GIVE WAY AS THE NEXT SPLIT TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OUT FROM THE
WESTERN CONUS BY LATE SUNDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO
SATURDAY WILL BRING EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH DRIER AIR INTO
THE CWA AND HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 50S WITH AT LEAST SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS. TEMPS WILL BE EVEN WARMER FOR SUNDAY AS THE SFC
HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN PLAINS STARTS SOME WARMER AIR MOVING BACK TO THE NORTH.
THE ECMWF TRIES TO BRING SOME PRECIP INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR
SUNDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES...BUT THE OTHER MODELS
ARE A BIT SLOWER. INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN
BUT THINK THE MAIN PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
THAT WAS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BUT LONG WAVE TROUGH BECOMES RE-
ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LONG WAVE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE US AND CANADIAN ROCKIES THIS
PERIOD. ECMWF AND GFS WERE TRENDING FASTER THEN SLOWER OVER THE
LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. SO WILL
PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF.
KEPT POPS FROM PREVIOUS RUN FOR MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PRODUCE PRECIP FOR MON AND TUE
AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT THROUGH THU
NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED TWO TO FIVE DEGREES FOR MON TUE AND WED.
HIGH TEMPS DECREASED TWO TO FIVE DEGREES FOR THU FROM THIS MORNINGS
FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015
EXPECT VFR CIGS TO LOWER INTO MVFR RANGE LATE TONIGHT OR
FRI...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. WINDS SHOULD BE FROM THE
E/SE AND COULD GUST OVER 20KT ON FRI.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1135 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE
ON SUNDAY. A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL FAVOR UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE END OF THE MONTH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE SLIPPING SOUTH OF PA THIS EVENING. RADAR
TRENDS AND HRRR SUGGEST DWINDLING BAND OF RAIN ASSOC WITH FGEN
FORCING IN THE 8-7H LYR WILL ONLY JUST GRAZE SOUTHERN
SOMERSET/BEDFORD COUNTIES THIS EVENING. SOME SNOW EVEN REPORTED AT
GARRETT CO AIRPORT...BUT PRECIP RTS/EVAP COOLING PROBABLY WON/T
BE SIG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY SNOW IN PA. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT OF
RAIN ALONG THE S TIER AND BRINGING CLEARING SKIES TO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES.
BLEND OF LATEST LAMP/RAP OUTPUT SUPPORTS OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE
U20S ACROSS THE N MTNS...TO THE U30S ACROSS THE LOW ELEVATIONS
ALONG THE MD BORDER. HAVE ADDED FROST TO THE FCST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...WHERE SKIES ARE LIKELY TO BECOME
MCLEAR OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
NARROW SFC RIDGE AND ASSOC BAND OF DRY AIR/LOW PWATS OVR UPSTATE
NY THIS EVENING WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL PA SUNDAY MORNING.
THUS...SEE A MAINLY SUNNY START TO THE DAY. HOWEVER...UPPER TROF
AND ASSOC COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE SWINGING SOUTH INTO THE STATE
BY AFTN. THUS...EXPECT PLENTY OF AFTN CU AND EVEN A FEW ISOLD
-SHRA...ESP OVR THE N MTNS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SPARSITY OF
COVERAGE AND LOW PWATS EXPECT MEASURABLE RAINFALL TO BE A VERY
LOW PROBABILITY. THUS...WILL NOT EXPLICITLY MENTION -SHRA IN FCST
ATTM.
18Z GEFS MEAN 8H TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS FROM NR 50F ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...TO NR 60F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...STILL WELL BLW
NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ACTIVE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA WILL KEEP THE REGION IN UPPER LEVEL TROFFINESS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE BLOCKED UP NRN STREAM...GENERALLY
NW FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL TEND TO SHUNT SRN STREAM
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH OF PA.
EARLY NEXT WEEK A SHOT OF COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES AS A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT IS NUDGED SOUTHWARD ACROSS PA FROM AN UPPER LOW
OVR NEW ENG. COOL TEMPS ALOFT ASSOC WITH UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO A GOOD DEAL OF DAYTIME CLOUDINESS AND SCT SHRA /ESP OVR
THE MTNS/ MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
BY MIDWEEK...THIS LOW FINALLY LIFTS OUT FOR GOOD..BUT DIGGING
TROUGH FROM UPPER MIDWEST WILL EXTEND INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BY
LATE WEEK...COMBINED WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT
OF THE S PLAINS TOWARD THE E COAST WILL BRING POSSIBILITY OF A
DEVELOPING STORM SLIDING NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
TRACK/STRENGTH STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN...BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE
WE/LL BE BETWEEN THAT LOW PRESSURE AREA AND A HIGH OVER OHIO
VALLEY...LIKELY KEEPING CLOUDS AND SCT SHOWERS AROUND AS TEMPS
COOL BACK DOWN A BIT.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DID BACK OFF ON THE MVFR CONDITIONS FOR JST OVERNIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE THE RAIN AND SLEET IS MAINLY SOUTH OF PA NOW.
ATTENTION TURNS TO THE SMALL SYSTEM OVER THE OH VLY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS MVFR CONDITIONS
AT JST LATER TONIGHT...LOOKING AT JUST HIGH AND MID LVL
CLDS AT OTHER SITES WITH VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LVL TROUGH COULD BRING SOME LOWER CLDS AND PERHAPS
A SHOWER TO BFD LATE SUNDAY. FOR NOW...LEFT FCST FOR BFD
VFR.
MORE IN THE WAY OF WIND AND SHOWERS FOR MONDAY INTO TUE...AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND UPPER LVL HEIGHTS FALL.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR WED INTO THU...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST.
OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...VFR...AREAS OF MVFR WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
WED-THU...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1045 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE ON
SUNDAY. A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL FAVOR UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE END OF THE MONTH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE SLIPPING SOUTH OF PA THIS EVENING. RADAR
TRENDS AND HRRR SUGGEST DWINDLING BAND OF RAIN ASSOC WITH FGEN
FORCING IN THE 8-7H LYR WILL ONLY JUST GRAZE SOUTHERN
SOMERSET/BEDFORD COUNTIES THIS EVENING. SOME SNOW EVEN REPORTED AT
GARRETT CO AIRPORT...BUT PRECIP RTS/EVAP COOLING PROBABLY WON/T
BE SIG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY SNOW IN PA. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT OF
RAIN ALONG THE S TIER AND BRINGING CLEARING SKIES TO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES.
BLEND OF LATEST LAMP/RAP OUTPUT SUPPORTS OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE
U20S ACROSS THE N MTNS...TO THE U30S ACROSS THE LOW ELEVATIONS
ALONG THE MD BORDER. HAVE ADDED FROST TO THE FCST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...WHERE SKIES ARE LIKELY TO BECOME
MCLEAR OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
NARROW SFC RIDGE AND ASSOC BAND OF DRY AIR/LOW PWATS OVR UPSTATE
NY THIS EVENING WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL PA SUNDAY MORNING.
THUS...SEE A MAINLY SUNNY START TO THE DAY. HOWEVER...UPPER TROF
AND ASSOC COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE SWINGING SOUTH INTO THE STATE
BY AFTN. THUS...EXPECT PLENTY OF AFTN CU AND EVEN A FEW ISOLD
-SHRA...ESP OVR THE N MTNS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SPARSITY OF
COVERAGE AND LOW PWATS EXPECT MEASURABLE RAINFALL TO BE A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY. THUS...WILL NOT EXPLICITLY MENTION -SHRA IN FCST
ATTM.
18Z GEFS MEAN 8H TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS FROM NR 50F ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...TO NR 60F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...STILL WELL BLW
NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ACTIVE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA WILL KEEP THE REGION IN UPPER LEVEL TROFFINESS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE BLOCKED UP NRN STREAM...GENERALLY
NW FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL TEND TO SHUNT SRN STREAM
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH OF PA.
EARLY NEXT WEEK A SHOT OF COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES AS A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT IS NUDGED SOUTHWARD ACROSS PA FROM AN UPPER LOW
OVR NEW ENG. COOL TEMPS ALOFT ASSOC WITH UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO A GOOD DEAL OF DAYTIME CLOUDINESS AND SCT SHRA /ESP OVR
THE MTNS/ MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
BY MIDWEEK...THIS LOW FINALLY LIFTS OUT FOR GOOD..BUT DIGGING
TROUGH FROM UPPER MIDWEST WILL EXTEND INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BY
LATE WEEK...COMBINED WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT
OF THE S PLAINS TOWARD THE E COAST WILL BRING POSSIBILITY OF A
DEVELOPING STORM SLIDING NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
TRACK/STRENGTH STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN...BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE
WE/LL BE BETWEEN THAT LOW PRESSURE AREA AND A HIGH OVER OHIO
VALLEY...LIKELY KEEPING CLOUDS AND SCT SHOWERS AROUND AS TEMPS
COOL BACK DOWN A BIT.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS MVFR CONDITIONS
AT JST LATER TONIGHT...LOOKING AT JUST HIGH AND MID LVL
CLDS AT OTHER SITES WITH VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LVL TROUGH COULD BRING SOME LOWER CLDS AND PERHAPS
A SHOWER TO BFD LATE SUNDAY. FOR NOW...LEFT FCST FOR BFD
VFR.
MORE IN THE WAY OF WIND AND SHOWERS FOR MONDAY INTO TUE...AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND UPPER LVL HEIGHTS FALL.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR WED INTO THU...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST.
OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...VFR...AREAS OF MVFR WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
WED-THU...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
928 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE ON
SUNDAY. A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL FAVOR UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE END OF THE MONTH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE SLIPPING SOUTH OF PA THIS EVENING. RADAR
TRENDS AND HRRR SUGGEST DWINDLING BAND OF RAIN ASSOC WITH FGEN
FORCING IN THE 8-7H LYR WILL ONLY JUST GRAZE SOUTHERN
SOMERSET/BEDFORD COUNTIES THIS EVENING. SOME SNOW EVEN REPORTED AT
GARRETT CO AIRPORT...BUT PRECIP RTS/EVAP COOLING PROBABLY WON/T
BE SIG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY SNOW IN PA. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT OF
RAIN ALONG THE S TIER AND BRINGING CLEARING SKIES TO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES.
BLEND OF LATEST LAMP/RAP OUTPUT SUPPORTS OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE
U20S ACROSS THE N MTNS...TO THE U30S ACROSS THE LOW ELEVATIONS
ALONG THE MD BORDER. HAVE ADDED FROST TO THE FCST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...WHERE SKIES ARE LIKELY TO BECOME
MCLEAR OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
NARROW SFC RIDGE AND ASSOC BAND OF DRY AIR/LOW PWATS OVR UPSTATE
NY THIS EVENING WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL PA SUNDAY MORNING.
THUS...SEE A MAINLY SUNNY START TO THE DAY. HOWEVER...UPPER TROF
AND ASSOC COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE SWINGING SOUTH INTO THE STATE
BY AFTN. THUS...EXPECT PLENTY OF AFTN CU AND EVEN A FEW ISOLD
-SHRA...ESP OVR THE N MTNS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SPARSITY OF
COVERAGE AND LOW PWATS EXPECT MEASURABLE RAINFALL TO BE A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY. THUS...WILL NOT EXPLICITLY MENTION -SHRA IN FCST
ATTM.
18Z GEFS MEAN 8H TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS FROM NR 50F ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...TO NR 60F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...STILL WELL BLW
NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ACTIVE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA WILL KEEP THE REGION IN UPPER LEVEL TROFFINESS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE BLOCKED UP NRN STREAM...GENERALLY
NW FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL TEND TO SHUNT SRN STREAM
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH OF PA.
EARLY NEXT WEEK A SHOT OF COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES AS A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT IS NUDGED SOUTHWARD ACROSS PA FROM AN UPPER LOW
OVR NEW ENG. COOL TEMPS ALOFT ASSOC WITH UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO A GOOD DEAL OF DAYTIME CLOUDINESS AND SCT SHRA /ESP OVR
THE MTNS/ MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
BY MIDWEEK...THIS LOW FINALLY LIFTS OUT FOR GOOD..BUT DIGGING
TROUGH FROM UPPER MIDWEST WILL EXTEND INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BY
LATE WEEK...COMBINED WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT
OF THE S PLAINS TOWARD THE E COAST WILL BRING POSSIBILITY OF A
DEVELOPING STORM SLIDING NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
TRACK/STRENGTH STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN...BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE
WE/LL BE BETWEEN THAT LOW PRESSURE AREA AND A HIGH OVER OHIO
VALLEY...LIKELY KEEPING CLOUDS AND SCT SHOWERS AROUND AS TEMPS
COOL BACK DOWN A BIT.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS MVFR CONDITIONS
AT JST LATER TONIGHT...LOOKING AT JUST HIGH AND MID LVL
CLDS AT OTHER SITES WITH VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LVL TROUGH COULD BRING SOME LOWER CLDS AND PERHAPS
A SHOWER TO BFD LATE SUNDAY. FOR NOW...LEFT FCST FOR BFD
VFR.
MORE IN THE WAY OF WIND AND SHOWERS FOR MONDAY INTO TUE...AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND UPPER LVL HEIGHTS FALL.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR WED INTO THU...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST.
OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...VFR...AREAS OF MVFR WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
WED-THU...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
826 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS IN
PLACE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI TO THE
CAROLINA COAST WILL BRING THE RISK OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT. PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL FAVOR UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE SLIPPING SOUTH OF PA THIS EVENING. RADAR
TRENDS AND HRRR SUGGEST DWINDLING BAND OF RAIN ASSOC WITH FGEN
FORCING IN THE 8-7H LYR WILL ONLY JUST GRAZE SOUTHERN
SOMERSET/BEDFORD COUNTIES THIS EVENING. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN
ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT
OF RAIN ALONG THE S TIER AND BRINGING CLEARING SKIES TO THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES.
LOWS FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH WILL BE SOME 5-10
DEG BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
WHILE THE MAIN WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST
GETS PINCHED OFF TO OUR SOUTH...UPPER TROUGHING AROUND THE STRONG
LOW OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS WILL FEED ANY NUMBER OF
WEAK SHORTWAVES DOWN AROUND THE ITS BACK SIDE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE SPARSE...BUT THE COLD AIR
ALOFT AND STRONG APRIL SUN COULD CONSPIRE TO POP OFF SOME LOW
TOPPED SHOWERS. THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF
FOR THE AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN TIER...WHILE THE GEFS AND
SREF IMPLY SHOWERS WILL BE A VERY LOW PROBABILITY OCCURRENCE. AT
THIS POINT I WILL DOWNPLAY THE CHANCES.
IT LOOKS TO REMAIN ON THE UNSEASONABLY CHILLY SIDE DESPITE WHAT
SHOULD WORK OUT TO BE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ACTIVE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA WILL KEEP THE REGION IN UPPER LEVEL TROFFINESS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE BLOCKED UP NRN STREAM...GENERALLY
NW FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL TEND TO SHUNT SRN STREAM
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH OF PA.
EARLY NEXT WEEK A SHOT OF COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES AS A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT IS NUDGED SOUTHWARD ACROSS PA FROM AN UPPER LOW
OVR NEW ENG. COOL TEMPS ALOFT ASSOC WITH UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO A GOOD DEAL OF DAYTIME CLOUDINESS AND SCT SHRA /ESP OVR
THE MTNS/ MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
BY MIDWEEK...THIS LOW FINALLY LIFTS OUT FOR GOOD..BUT DIGGING
TROUGH FROM UPPER MIDWEST WILL EXTEND INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BY
LATE WEEK...COMBINED WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT
OF THE S PLAINS TOWARD THE E COAST WILL BRING POSSIBILITY OF A
DEVELOPING STORM SLIDING NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
TRACK/STRENGTH STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN...BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE
WE/LL BE BETWEEN THAT LOW PRESSURE AREA AND A HIGH OVER OHIO
VALLEY...LIKELY KEEPING CLOUDS AND SCT SHOWERS AROUND AS TEMPS
COOL BACK DOWN A BIT.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS MVFR CONDITIONS
AT JST LATER TONIGHT...LOOKING AT JUST HIGH AND MID LVL
CLDS AT OTHER SITES WITH VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LVL TROUGH COULD BRING SOME LOWER CLDS AND PERHAPS
A SHOWER TO BFD LATE SUNDAY. FOR NOW...LEFT FCST FOR BFD
VFR.
MORE IN THE WAY OF WIND AND SHOWERS FOR MONDAY INTO TUE...AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND UPPER LVL HEIGHTS FALL.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR WED INTO THU...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST.
OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...VFR...AREAS OF MVFR WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
WED-THU...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...ROSS/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1050 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FROM KENTUCKY AND
TENNESSEE TO NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT...THEN OFF THE COAST ON
SUNDAY. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE DROPS DOWN FROM CENTRAL
CANADA SUNDAY AND WILL BE OUR WEATHER MAKER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. EXPECT LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE EAST FROM TEXAS IN MID WEEK
AND BRING MORE RAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1045 PM EDT SATURDAY...UPSTREAM CONVECTION ACROSS SE/SC
KENTUCKY CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST ALONG AN INSTABILITY AXIS
THROUGH MIDDLE TN. LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE SURVIVAL OF
SAID CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT APPROACHES THE NC HIGH TERRAIN ALONG THE
TN STATE LINE. A SHARP INSTABILITY GRADIENT ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN
TN WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE IMPACTING THE MTNS AROUND 2AM WHEN QUICK WEAKENING
OF ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. THUS...THINK CURRENT POP TRENDS REMAIN
VALID AND OPTED NOT TO MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
NOTE THAT AN ABUNDANCE OF GUIDANCE FAVORS AT LEAST PATCHY DENSE FOG
ACROSS THE NC/SC PIEDMONT ALONG THE I77 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT. THUS A
DFA MAY BE NEEDED LATER.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WAS LOCATED
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE A CLOSED LOW
WAS OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
DEAMPLIFY THIS EVENING WHILE THE CLOSED UP FILLS...RESULTING IN
ZONAL FOR OVER THE SE. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW WILL
CROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY MORNING.
AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM THE NORTHERN NC
MOUNTAINS TO THE NC OUTER BANKS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MOIST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND LOW CLOUDS REMAIN OVER MOST OF OUR AREA...THE
BULK OF PRECIPITATION HAS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WITH A DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN THIS
EVENING THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH DROPS SOUTH...EVEN AS UPGLIDE
WEAKENS. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR BOTH INCREASE ABOVE A LOW LEVEL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...BEFORE A DECREASE TOWARD DAWN...INCREASING
SUPPORT FOR ELEVATED ORGANIZED CONVECTION. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN ABOVE NORMAL UNDER CLOUD COVER. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH
ACROSS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY...A DRYING DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL FOLLOW IN
ITS WAKE...RESULTING IN WARMING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM SATURDAY...AS COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA...
ISLD/SCT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AREAS
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...A RELATIVELY MODEST/MOIST NW FLOW
COULD YIELD SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER AS
WELL. POPS WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THOSE AREAS DURING THE
EVENING HOURS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE PLEASANTLY COOL AND DRY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE EAST
COAST/WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH A COUPLE OF PERIODIC SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS ONLY ACTING TO REINFORCE THE BELOW CLIMO TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGH MID-WEEK...AS A SOUTHERN STREAM AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WOBBLES OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION/TEXAS AND OPENS UP
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL CREATE COMPLICATIONS TO THE UPPER
PATTERN IN TERMS OF HOW THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WILL
INTERACT (IF AT ALL)...AND INDEED GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE
DISPARATE REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC DETAILS FOR MID-WEEK...ESP
REGARDING SOUTHEAST COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. NEVERTHELESS...ALL GLOBAL
MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS DEPICT AT LEAST A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF BY TUE AFTERNOON...THUS CHANCE
POPS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUE NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. UNCERTAINTY REALLY EXPLODES AFTER WED...WHEN
DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY (WITH THE ECMWF
DEVELOPING AN INTENSE/MILLER-A CYCLONE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY
THURSDAY...WHILE THE GFS BARELY DEPICTS A WEAK WAVE IN THIS AREA).
NEVERTHELESS...ENSEMBLE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS SUPPORT
MAINTAINING LOW POPS INTO THURSDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...INITIALIZED TAF MVFR AS CURRENT IFR RESTRICTIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE SHORTLY. ADDED TSRA TEMPO FROM 07Z-10Z TO ACCOUNT FOR
UPSTREAM MCS PROPAGATION/SURVIVAL THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS AS SHOWN ON
THE LATEST HRRR. HOWEVER...IF THIS TRACK DOES PAN OUT...LITTLE TO
NO INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTION THUS ANY STRONG TSRA
IS LIKELY RULED OUT. ACTUALLY WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF ITS NOTHING
MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR
PATCHY DENSE FOG AROUND THE LOWER NC PIEDMONT BY MORNING THUS ADDED
FM GROUP TO INDICATE IFR RESTRICTIONS. IMPROVED TAF TO LOW VFR
AROUND 15Z WITH NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAILING AHEAD OF A PROB30 IN THE
AFTN FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION ALONG SLOW MOVING FRONTAL AXIS.
ELSEWHERE...MODELS STILL FAVOR PROLONGED LIFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS AT
KHKY THUS TAF REFLECTS SUCH. OTHERWISE...ALL TAFS INITIALIZE VFR
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. MCS SLIDING THROUGH CENTRAL KY AT
THIS TIME IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE THROUGH THE PLATEAU INTO THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF WESTERN NC AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME CAM SOLUTIONS INDICATE
SURVIVAL OF SAID MCS THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS. THUS...TAFS FEATURE
VCTS MENTION TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY ENHANCED CONVECTION. AS WITH KCLT
ABOVE...EXPECTING INSTABILITY TO BE AT A PREMIUM...ESPECIALLY EAST
OF THE MTNS THEREFORE NO ROBUST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. WITH THAT
LOWERED ALL SITES TO EITHER LOW VFR OR MVFR AMIDST LIGHT/MODERATE
NORTHERLY WINDS. DID INCLUDE EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG AT ALL SITES
WITH SOME ISOLATED DENSE FOG EXPECTED OVER THE NC PIEDMONT...THUS DO
CARRY 1/2SM AT KHKY. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH
MORNING WITH SHRA/TSRA EXITING THE REGION...IF PRESENT. DID
REINTRODUCE WX MENTION LATE IN THE PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL AXIS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY THEN
FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY TRACK ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z 20-00Z
KCLT HIGH 95% MED 69% HIGH 86% MED 70%
KGSP MED 75% HIGH 89% HIGH 98% HIGH 80%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 94% HIGH 90%
KHKY MED 75% MED 74% LOW 56% MED 77%
KGMU MED 76% HIGH 94% HIGH 98% HIGH 95%
KAND MED 79% HIGH 94% HIGH 94% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CDG/JAT
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...CDG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1252 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
IMPACT OF WAVE LIFTING ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AT MIDDAY HAS BEEN
TWOFOLD...FIRST TO GENERATE AS EXPECTED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTHWEST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA...AND SECOND TO BRING A GREATER DEAL OF CLEARING TO THE
WESTERN/SOUTHERN CWA.
SOME ALTERATIONS MADE TO THE CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY.
WITH SUBSIDENCE FOR THE TIME BEING SETTLING ACROSS THE CWA... HAVE
DROPPED MOST OF THE LOWER POPS IN REGION BEHIND WAVE...WHILE
INCREASING CERTAINTY A BIT AHEAD. CONCERN THEN BECOMES WITH THE
LATTER AFTERNOON...WHERE THE DESTABILIZATION FROM THE ADDED
HEATING WILL ERODE WEAK CAPPING. AT LEAST MODEST CONVERGENCE
ALONG BOUNDARY LIKELY TO POOL ENOUGH MOISTURE TO RESULT IN A
500-1200 J/KG MIXED LAYER INSTABILITY...BUT DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS
FAIRLY WEAK DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY MID LEVEL WINDS. PERHAPS COULD
SCARE UP A PULSE MULTICELL MARGINAL SEVERE HAILER ACROSS AREAS
NEAR/WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING...BUT OVERALL ANY SEVERE THREAT IS MINIMAL.
TOUGH PART OF TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY IS
HOW WARM IT COULD GET PRIOR TO RETURN OF STRATUS FROM THE SOUTH
AROUND MID AFTERNOON. PUSHED READINGS UP QUITE A BIT...FROM 4 TO 7
DEGREES...BUT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH IF CAN REACH POTENTIAL INDICATED
IN RAP MODEL...WHICH IS MUCH MORE IN TUNE WITH CURRENT TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
NOT EXACTLY A CLEAR CUT FORECAST WITH REGARD TO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEEING JUST SPOTTY ELEVATED SHOWERS
IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST THUS FAR THIS MORNING...WITH LOW LEVEL JET
FOCUSING MORE CONSOLIDATED PRECIPITATION WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA.
MORE CONCENTRATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE EXPECTED OVER THE
WESTERN CWA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...THOUGH THUS FAR THIS HAS
BEEN SLOWER TO DEVELOP THAN EXPECTED. NEVERTHELESS...BEGINNING TO
SEE SPOTTY ELEVATED ECHOES DEVELOP THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA AND HIGH
RES MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT DEVELOPING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM NEAR
THE JAMES VALLEY TO WEST OF I-29 THIS MORNING. OVERALL THOUGH...
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY APPEARS TO BE IN OUR
FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT PERSISTS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. DEPTH OF MOISTURE A BIT OF A CONCERN AND HAVE TRIMMED BACK
RAINFALL AMOUNTS A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TODAY...WITH
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR A LITTLE MORE ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF
HIGHWAY 60 CORRIDOR...AND LESS THAN A TENTH ELSEWHERE IN THE CWA.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HOLDING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY IN
THE EAST DUE TO THICKER CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES...BUT A SHADE
WARMER WEST WHERE 925MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB A DEGREE
OR TWO HIGHER THAN THURSDAY IN THERMAL RIDGE JUST AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY. WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WEST...BEGIN TO SEE BETTER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND
LEADING TO POSSIBLE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IN OUR FAR WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. GFS/NAM SHOWING SBCAPE VALUES
REACHING 1000-1500 J/KG...BUT RAP CONSIDERABLY LOWER DUE TO WARMER
MID-UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES. IF GFS/NAM PROFILES PAN OUT...CANNOT
ARGUE WITH SPC MARGINAL THREAT FOR HAIL IN OUR SOUTHWEST CWA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
FOR TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGH SWINGING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
SHOULD BRING INCREASING THREAT OF RAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST AS IT
STRENGTHENS AND SLIDES EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. QUESTION IS
HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL EXPAND BEFORE THE WAVE PULLS
EAST LATE TONIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE EXPANDED LIKELY POPS A BIT FARTHER
NORTH...TO NEAR A VERMILLION-WORTHINGTON LINE...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF SIOUX CITY-SPENCER. PRECIP AMOUNTS AGAIN EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...AROUND A TENTH OR TWO OVER NORTHWEST
IOWA AND MUCH LESS FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
ON SATURDAY MORNING...IT IS UNCLEAR HOW FAR TO EXTEND POPS FROM
NORTHWEST IOWA BACK TO THE WEST. MOST MODELS SUGGEST POPS ACROSS
NORTHWEST IOWA...BUT SOLUTIONS VARY TO THE WEST AS LIMITED DYNAMICS
AND RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE LIMIT PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. WITH
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY...KEPT TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL IN THE EAST WITH WARMER HIGHS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA.
MODELS SHOW SWATH OF DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
FROM THE EAST. WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED DEW
POINTS AND SKY COVER AND RAISED TEMPERATURES. THIS ONCE AGAIN WILL
CREATE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THOUGH WITH WINDS ALOFT ONLY
IN THE 15-20 KNOTS RANGE...AM NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO GET STRONG
ENOUGH FOR RED FLAG.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVELY PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
WEAK WINDS AHEAD OF A FRONT MOVING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. LEFT SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
CONSIDERED REMOVING POPS ALL TOGETHER AS MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE
LIMITED.
LOOKS TO BE YET ANOTHER DRY WEEK ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL JET
BUCKLES TO THE NORTH LEADING TO A WARMING TREND. WINDS APPEAR TO
INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK...POTENTIALLY CREATING ADDITIONAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
HAVE BROKEN OUT INTO LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
EXCEPTION OF AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AHEAD OF UPPER WAVE LIFTING
ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA. MVFR STRATUS WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD BACK
NORTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA TOWARD KSUX BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...FIGHTING MIXING ALL THE WAY. OTHER CONCERN WILL BE
WITH POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT VERY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING NEAR SURFACE CONVERGENCE TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL SD AND
THE LOWER TO MID JAMES VALLEY. CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY HAVE BRIEF
IFR VISIBILITY AND MVFR CEILINGS. WHILE ACKNOWLEDGE THERE IS A
SMALL THREAT AT KFSD AND KSUX...WOULD SEEM A BIT LOW PROBABILITY
AND MORE DIFFICULT TO TIME AND THUS HAVE LEFT OUT ON THIS 18Z
ISSUANCE. MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING AS MOIST EASTERLY FLOW INTENSIFIES.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CHAPMAN
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHAPMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
648 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
NOT EXACTLY A CLEAR CUT FORECAST WITH REGARD TO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEEING JUST SPOTTY ELEVATED SHOWERS
IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST THUS FAR THIS MORNING...WITH LOW LEVEL JET
FOCUSING MORE CONSOLIDATED PRECIPITATION WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA.
MORE CONCENTRATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE EXPECTED OVER THE
WESTERN CWA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...THOUGH THUS FAR THIS HAS
BEEN SLOWER TO DEVELOP THAN EXPECTED. NEVERTHELESS...BEGINNING TO
SEE SPOTTY ELEVATED ECHOES DEVELOP THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA AND HIGH
RES MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT DEVELOPING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM NEAR
THE JAMES VALLEY TO WEST OF I-29 THIS MORNING. OVERALL THOUGH...
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY APPEARS TO BE IN OUR
FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT PERSISTS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. DEPTH OF MOISTURE A BIT OF A CONCERN AND HAVE TRIMMED BACK
RAINFALL AMOUNTS A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TODAY...WITH
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR A LITTLE MORE ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF
HIGHWAY 60 CORRIDOR...AND LESS THAN A TENTH ELSEWHERE IN THE CWA.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HOLDING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY IN
THE EAST DUE TO THICKER CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES...BUT A SHADE
WARMER WEST WHERE 925MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB A DEGREE
OR TWO HIGHER THAN THURSDAY IN THERMAL RIDGE JUST AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY. WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WEST...BEGIN TO SEE BETTER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND
LEADING TO POSSIBLE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IN OUR FAR WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. GFS/NAM SHOWING SBCAPE VALUES
REACHING 1000-1500 J/KG...BUT RAP CONSIDERABLY LOWER DUE TO WARMER
MID-UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES. IF GFS/NAM PROFILES PAN OUT...CANNOT
ARGUE WITH SPC MARGINAL THREAT FOR HAIL IN OUR SOUTHWEST CWA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
FOR TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGH SWINGING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
SHOULD BRING INCREASING THREAT OF RAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST AS IT
STRENGTHENS AND SLIDES EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. QUESTION IS
HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL EXPAND BEFORE THE WAVE PULLS
EAST LATE TONIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE EXPANDED LIKELY POPS A BIT FARTHER
NORTH...TO NEAR A VERMILLION-WORTHINGTON LINE...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF SIOUX CITY-SPENCER. PRECIP AMOUNTS AGAIN EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...AROUND A TENTH OR TWO OVER NORTHWEST
IOWA AND MUCH LESS FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
ON SATURDAY MORNING...IT IS UNCLEAR HOW FAR TO EXTEND POPS FROM
NORTHWEST IOWA BACK TO THE WEST. MOST MODELS SUGGEST POPS ACROSS
NORTHWEST IOWA...BUT SOLUTIONS VARY TO THE WEST AS LIMITED DYNAMICS
AND RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE LIMIT PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. WITH
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY...KEPT TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL IN THE EAST WITH WARMER HIGHS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA.
MODELS SHOW SWATH OF DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
FROM THE EAST. WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED DEW
POINTS AND SKY COVER AND RAISED TEMPERATURES. THIS ONCE AGAIN WILL
CREATE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THOUGH WITH WINDS ALOFT ONLY
IN THE 15-20 KNOTS RANGE...AM NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO GET STRONG
ENOUGH FOR RED FLAG.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVELY PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
WEAK WINDS AHEAD OF A FRONT MOVING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. LEFT SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
CONSIDERED REMOVING POPS ALL TOGETHER AS MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE
LIMITED.
LOOKS TO BE YET ANOTHER DRY WEEK ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL JET
BUCKLES TO THE NORTH LEADING TO A WARMING TREND. WINDS APPEAR TO
INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK...POTENTIALLY CREATING ADDITIONAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS NEAR/EAST OF I-29 CORRIDOR AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE DAY AS
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE INCREASING MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. BOTH THE LOW CEILINGS AND
GREATER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE PROMINENT EAST OF THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH THE KHON TAF SITE LARGELY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VFR UNTIL AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING WHEN A MORE EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL PULL THE MVFR CEILINGS WESTWARD INTO THE JAMES
VALLEY.
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING/LOCATION OF THUNDER CHANCES...
OPTED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL
CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. KHON MAY ACTUALLY
SEE A GREATER THUNDER THREAT THAN KFSD/KSUX...AS INSTABILITY MAY
BECOME SURFACE BASED THERE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER
THIS THREAT CONDITIONAL ON WHETHER PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY DEVELOPS
IN THAT FAR NORTH...SO AGAIN WILL KEEP THE TAF DRY FOR NOW.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
416 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
NOT EXACTLY A CLEAR CUT FORECAST WITH REGARD TO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEEING JUST SPOTTY ELEVATED SHOWERS
IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST THUS FAR THIS MORNING...WITH LOW LEVEL JET
FOCUSING MORE CONSOLIDATED PRECIPITATION WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA.
MORE CONCENTRATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE EXPECTED OVER THE
WESTERN CWA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...THOUGH THUS FAR THIS HAS
BEEN SLOWER TO DEVELOP THAN EXPECTED. NEVERTHELESS...BEGINNING TO
SEE SPOTTY ELEVATED ECHOES DEVELOP THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA AND HIGH
RES MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT DEVELOPING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM NEAR
THE JAMES VALLEY TO WEST OF I-29 THIS MORNING. OVERALL THOUGH...
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY APPEARS TO BE IN OUR
FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT PERSISTS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. DEPTH OF MOISTURE A BIT OF A CONCERN AND HAVE TRIMMED BACK
RAINFALL AMOUNTS A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TODAY...WITH
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR A LITTLE MORE ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF
HIGHWAY 60 CORRIDOR...AND LESS THAN A TENTH ELSEWHERE IN THE CWA.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HOLDING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY IN
THE EAST DUE TO THICKER CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES...BUT A SHADE
WARMER WEST WHERE 925MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB A DEGREE
OR TWO HIGHER THAN THURSDAY IN THERMAL RIDGE JUST AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY. WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WEST...BEGIN TO SEE BETTER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND
LEADING TO POSSIBLE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IN OUR FAR WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. GFS/NAM SHOWING SBCAPE VALUES
REACHING 1000-1500 J/KG...BUT RAP CONSIDERABLY LOWER DUE TO WARMER
MID-UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES. IF GFS/NAM PROFILES PAN OUT...CANNOT
ARGUE WITH SPC MARGINAL THREAT FOR HAIL IN OUR SOUTHWEST CWA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
FOR TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGH SWINGING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
SHOULD BRING INCREASING THREAT OF RAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST AS IT
STRENGTHENS AND SLIDES EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. QUESTION IS
HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL EXPAND BEFORE THE WAVE PULLS
EAST LATE TONIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE EXPANDED LIKELY POPS A BIT FARTHER
NORTH...TO NEAR A VERMILLION-WORTHINGTON LINE...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF SIOUX CITY-SPENCER. PRECIP AMOUNTS AGAIN EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...AROUND A TENTH OR TWO OVER NORTHWEST
IOWA AND MUCH LESS FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
ON SATURDAY MORNING...IT IS UNCLEAR HOW FAR TO EXTEND POPS FROM
NORTHWEST IOWA BACK TO THE WEST. MOST MODELS SUGGEST POPS ACROSS
NORTHWEST IOWA...BUT SOLUTIONS VARY TO THE WEST AS LIMITED DYNAMICS
AND RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE LIMIT PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. WITH
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY...KEPT TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL IN THE EAST WITH WARMER HIGHS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA.
MODELS SHOW SWATH OF DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
FROM THE EAST. WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED DEW
POINTS AND SKY COVER AND RAISED TEMPERATURES. THIS ONCE AGAIN WILL
CREATE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THOUGH WITH WINDS ALOFT ONLY
IN THE 15-20 KNOTS RANGE...AM NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO GET STRONG
ENOUGH FOR RED FLAG.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVELY PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
WEAK WINDS AHEAD OF A FRONT MOVING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. LEFT SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
CONSIDERED REMOVING POPS ALL TOGETHER AS MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE
LIMITED.
LOOKS TO BE YET ANOTHER DRY WEEK ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL JET
BUCKLES TO THE NORTH LEADING TO A WARMING TREND. WINDS APPEAR TO
INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK...POTENTIALLY CREATING ADDITIONAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015
ALTHOUGH VFR IS PREVAILING RIGHT NOW...THE NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
HUMIDITY TIME SECTIONS ARE STILL SHOWING A DETERIORATION OF
CEILINGS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z THIS MORNING. THE MVFR SCENARIO BECOMES MORE ENTRENCHED ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING...EXCEPT PERHAPS AT KHON WHO MAY BE IN
THE LOWER END VFR CATEGORY FOR A BULK OF FRIDAY. FOR NOW...ONLY
HAVE THE MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE TAF FORECASTS. CONDITIONS ARE
STABLE FROM THE SURFACE TO ALMOST 700MB. THERE IS MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY BETWEEN 700-500MB SO IF ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD HAPPEN
TO TAP INTO THAT AIR...THEN SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. BUT AT THIS TIME...THUNDER CHANCES LOOK TOO SKITTISH TO
MENTION IN THE FORECASTS.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1149 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 942 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/
DISCUSSION...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED OVER THE REGION WITH HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPS ARE IN THE 50S WITH LIGHT WINDS.
NOT MUCH CHANGE OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES AND THE
LATEST HRRR IS BRINGING SOME SHRAS TOWARD THE AREA LATE AS THE
WARM FRONT STARTS LIFTING NORTH. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. NO
CHANGES NEEDED.
SJM
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/
CURRENTLY THE MIDSOUTH WAS PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES STILL LINGERING ON RADAR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF
NORTH MISSISSIPPI. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS RANGING FROM 5 TO 10 KTS. ONLY AN
ADDITIONAL DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING IS EXPECTED TODAY.
FOR TONIGHT...REDUCED RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND KEPT THEM MAINLY
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ONSET OF
A LIFTING WARM FRONT. SKIES HOWEVER WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER
MOST OF THE REGION...KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT MILDER.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...CURRENT TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES
IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE NORTHEAST TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
WHILE A SURFACE LOW IN WESTERN KANSAS TRACKS TO THE OHIO RIVER.
THIS SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO UNDERGO DEEPENING INITIALLY FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THEN MAINTAIN STEADY STRENGTH ON SATURDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH WITH THE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN THOUGH WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY EVENING WITH EMBEDDED ELEVATED
THUNDER. QUESTIONS ARISE AFTER MIDNIGHT IF STORMS CAN REFORM NEAR
THE BOUNDARY OR IN THE WARM SECTOR. INSTABILITY APPEARS WEAK BUT
SHEAR IS STRONG. SO AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND REPORT
COULD MATERIALIZE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST. BY MID MORNING
SATURDAY A SURGING DRY SLOT WILL BEGIN SHOVING THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN ALABAMA. THE MIDSOUTH
COUNTIES WILL HAVE A SMALL WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER AROUND MIDDAY.
THESE STORMS WOULD HAVE A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS AS CAPE CLIMBS TO NEAR 2500 J/KG AND LI`S DROP TO
-9C. UNLESS THE SYSTEM SLOWS CONSIDERABLY THE BEST THREAT ON
SATURDAY WILL BE EAST OF THE MEMPHIS METRO. THE DRY SLOT WILL
PROVIDE FOR GUSTY WINDS...WITH THE STRONG MIXING PROVIDING HIGHS
IN THE 80S. THE DELTA COUNTIES MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT LIFT FROM THIS FEATURE WILL BE WEAK WITH ONLY
A FEW STRAY SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH DRY WEATHER AND MILDER HIGHS.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SECOND TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. THE EURO AND GFS ARE BIT BETTER ALIGNED
ON STORM STRENGTH AND TRACK...WITH THE GFS STILL REMAINING A BIT
FASTER WITH TIMING. A COASTAL SURFACE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO FORM
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE MIDSOUTH WITH
A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW...A MORE WINTER
LIKE PATTERN. CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
JAB
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH CEILINGS GRADUALLY
LOWERING TO MVFR LEVELS FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AND BY FRIDAY EVENING OVER THE EAST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOST AREAS SEEING SOME RAIN
FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTHEAST AROUND 5
KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS FRIDAY
MORNING.
ARS
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
948 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
.DISCUSSION...
LEADING IMPULSE SUPPORTING AREA OF ELEVATED MOIST CONVECTION OVER
THE NRN COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY PULL NEWD THROUGH THE
DAY...AND PULL RAIN OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MODEST
DIURNAL HEATING HAS ALLOWED AIRMASS TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE
FEEDING INTO THIS COMPLEX AS OF 14Z. HOWEVER...CAPPING REMAINS IN
PLACE. WITH FURTHER DIURNAL HEATING...A FEW CELLS MAY STRENGTHEN
WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SOME HAIL. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS FOR THESE CELLS...ALTHOUGH
CURRENT THINKING IS SVR THREAT WILL REMAIN MODEST AT BEST WITH
ONGOING STORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING WITH BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL.
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL ESSENTIALLY REMAIN BETWEEN SYSTEMS
TODAY...WITH LOWER POPS THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z UA ANALYSIS/SOUNDINGS
INDICATE RICH SURFACE MOISTURE FEED IS QUITE SHALLOW...WHICH WILL
LIKELY KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE SCATTERED RANGE AT BEST FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS AFTERNOON HEATING FURTHER WEAKENS CAP.
OTHER THAN MAKING NEAR TERM CHANGES ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING
WEATHER...HAVE LEFT REST OF FORECAST THE SAME.
48
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/
AVIATION...
THE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
LIKED THE HRRR MODEL FOR HOW IT INITIALIZED AND CONTINUES TO
DEPICT THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HILL COUNTRY.
THE THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING OVER THE HILL COUNTRY WERE APPROACHING
KCLLAT 11Z. THE HRRR BRINGS THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS KCLL AND KUTS THROUGH 18Z. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR TO THE NORTH...BOTH KCXO AND KIAH SHOULD SEE A WINDOW
OF HIGHEST CHANCES FROM ABOUT 15Z THROUGH 18Z.
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE GULF WAS PROVIDING A STRONGER
CAP OVER THE REMAINING SITES...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ERODE THIS CAP
LATER THIS MORNING. BECAUSE OF THIS...KHOU AND KSGR SHOULD SEE
SHOWER OR THUNDER CHANCES AFTER 14Z. KLBX AND KGLS WILL HAVE A
MORE DIFFICULT TIME. THE BEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE DURING THE
MID AND LATE MORNING PERIOD AS THE REMNANTS OF A MESO-SCALE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT AFFECTED SOUTH TEXAS EARLIER THIS MORNING
MOVE UP THE COASTAL AREAS. THESE REMNANTS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH MIDDAY.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 84 70 88 68 88 / 90 50 20 10 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 84 72 88 70 88 / 50 40 50 10 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 78 73 83 73 80 / 30 40 50 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...48
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
705 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
.UPDATE...
SENT AN UPDATE FOR THE MARINE WINDS FOR THIS MORNING. THE REMNANTS
OF THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT AFFECTING DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS EARLIER THIS MORNING SHOULD MOVE UP THE COAST THIS MORNING.
THESE MAY GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY
WINDS.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
40
AVIATION...
THE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
LIKED THE HRRR MODEL FOR HOW IT INITIALIZED AND CONTINUES TO
DEPICT THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HILL COUNTRY.
THE THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING OVER THE HILL COUNTRY WERE APPROACHING
KCLLAT 11Z. THE HRRR BRINGS THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS KCLL AND KUTS THROUGH 18Z. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR TO THE NORTH...BOTH KCXO AND KIAH SHOULD SEE A WINDOW
OF HIGHEST CHANCES FROM ABOUT 15Z THROUGH 18Z.
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE GULF WAS PROVIDING A STRONGER
CAP OVER THE REMAINING SITES...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ERODE THIS CAP
LATER THIS MORNING. BECAUSE OF THIS...KHOU AND KSGR SHOULD SEE
SHOWER OR THUNDER CHANCES AFTER 14Z. KLBX AND KGLS WILL HAVE A
MORE DIFFICULT TIME. THE BEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE DURING THE
MID AND LATE MORNING PERIOD AS THE REMNANTS OF A MESO-SCALE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT AFFECTED SOUTH TEXAS EARLIER THIS MORNING
MOVE UP THE COASTAL AREAS. THESE REMNANTS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH MIDDAY.
40
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/
UPDATE...
RAISING POPS PER RADAR TRENDS.
DISCUSSION...
WILL RAISE POPS FOR THIS MORNING AS CONVECTION IS FIRING ALONG A
WEAK 850 MB BOUNDARY. CONVECTION IS BACK BUILDING TO THE E-SE IN
LESS MODIFIED AIR. NEW ZONES OUT SHORTLY. 43
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/
DISCUSSION...
AT 2 AM...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM ABOUT TYLER TO HONDO
TO DEL RIO. A WEAK MESO-HIGH WAS LOCATED NEAR SAN ANGELO. RADAR
SHOWS A DECAYING MCS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS FEATURE COULD
SEND A PATCH OF LIGHT RAIN INTO THE SOUTHWEST ZONES THIS MORNING
BUT WILL PROBABLY SEND A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT COULD SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING. FURTHER
WEST...A CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS IN DIMMIT AND LA SALLE COUNTIES
IS MOVING E-NE AND WILL BE APPROACHING SE TX BETWEEN 13-14Z. NOT
SURE THESE STORMS WILL HOLD TOGETHER BUT AGAIN COLD SEND OFF AN
OUTFLOW TO SERVE AS FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.
MOISTURE LOOKS PLENTIFUL TODAY WITH PW VALUES PROGGED TO EXCEED
2.00 INCHES OVER PARTS OF SE TX. 850 MB TD AT BRO WAS 17 C AND 15C
AT CRP AT 00Z. THERE ALSO LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A WEAK TROUGH AT 850
MB EXTENDING THE LOUISIANA COAST TO AROUND LAREDO. THERE IS ALSO
EVIDENCE OF WEAK 850 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF. 700
MB LOOKS DRY WITH MORE PRONOUNCED RIDGING ALONG THE TEXAS COAST.
AT 250 MB...A RIBBON OF FASTER SPEEDS EXTENDED ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND A SECONDARY SPEED MAX NEAR EL PASO. WEAK
RIDGING WAS AGAIN NOTED OVER THE WESTERN GULF.
MODELS NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT TODAY OF WHEN AND WHERE
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP. THE TEXAS TECH WRF DID NOT INITIALIZE
WELL BUT IT SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE CONVECTION OVER SW TX FAIRLY
WELL WHILE THE HRRR AND RAP SEEMED TO INITIALIZE WELL AT 08Z.
THE JET STRUCTURE DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE TODAY WITH THE BEST
DIVERGENCE OVER NORTH TEXAS BUT SE TX REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE AND
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW TREMENDOUS INSTABILITY WITH CAPES AOA 3000
AND LI VALUES -10 AND LAPSE RATES ABOVE 7.0. HOWEVER THIS
INSTABILITY NEEDS TO BE TAPPED BY A PASSING S/WV OR SOME KIND OF
SFC TRIGGER AND THIS IS WHERE THINGS BECOME LESS CLEAR. OTHER THAN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...JUST CAN`T FIND A WELL DEFINED CATALYST TO
TRIGGER SHRA/TSRA. THE OTHER CONCERN REGARDING CONVECTION IS THE
850-500 RIDGE OVER THE GULF THAT IS IMPINGING ON SE TX. AM A BIT
NERVOUS THAT THIS FEATURE WILL IMPART A BIT OF SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
COAST AND SHUNT MUCH OF TODAYS PRECIP TO THE WEST. WILL MAINTAIN
LIKELY POPS OVER THE NORTH AND CHANCE POPS CENTRAL. WILL ALSO
MAINTAIN SEVERE WORDING OVER THE NORTH BUT YOU CAN`T RULE A SEVERE
STORM ANYWHERE IN THE CWA AS INSTABILITY IS IMPRESSIVE OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA.
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AS SE TX LIES IN A RRQ FOR A TIME. THE SPEED MAX WILL
EXIT BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND RAIN WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH
A W-SW SFC WIND DEVELOPING. CLOUDS WILL BREAK IN THE AFTN AND WITH
A W-SW WIND...AM EXPECTING TEMPS TO WARM UP QUICKLY. SUNDAY STILL
LOOKS IFFY AS WINDS ALOFT STAY OUT OF THE SW. WILL INTRODUCE 20
POPS FOR SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
APPROACH TX FROM THE WEST. THIS FEATURE WILL TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHRA/TSRA SUN NITE INTO MON NITE. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
AGAIN BE STRONG. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COAST ON TUES
MORNING. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. 43
MARINE...
ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH BETTER CHANCES LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY
TUESDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE MAY REACH INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 84 70 88 68 88 / 60 50 20 10 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 84 72 88 70 88 / 50 40 50 10 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 78 73 83 73 80 / 30 40 50 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
632 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
40
&&
.AVIATION...
THE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
LIKED THE HRRR MODEL FOR HOW IT INITIALIZED AND CONTINUES TO
DEPICT THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HILL COUNTRY.
THE THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING OVER THE HILL COUNTRY WERE APPROACHINGKCLL
AT 11Z. THE HRRR BRINGS THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
KCLL AND KUTS THROUGH 18Z. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR TO THE NORTH...BOTH KCXO AND KIAH SHOULD SEE A WINDOW OF
HIGHEST CHANCES FROM ABOUT 15Z THROUGH 18Z.
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE GULF WAS PROVIDING A STRONGER
CAP OVER THE REMAINING SITES...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ERODE THIS CAP
LATER THIS MORNING. BECAUSE OF THIS...KHOU AND KSGR SHOULD SEE
SHOWER OR THUNDER CHANCES AFTER 14Z. KLBX AND KGLS WILL HAVE A
MORE DIFFICULT TIME. THE BEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE DURING THE
MID AND LATE MORNING PERIOD AS THE REMNANTS OF A MESO-SCALE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT AFFECTED SOUTH TEXAS EARLIER THIS MORNING
MOVE UP THE COASTAL AREAS. THESE REMNANTS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH MIDDAY.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/
UPDATE...
RAISING POPS PER RADAR TRENDS.
DISCUSSION...
WILL RAISE POPS FOR THIS MORNING AS CONVECTION IS FIRING ALONG A
WEAK 850 MB BOUNDARY. CONVECTION IS BACKBUILDING TO THE E-SE IN
LESS MODIFIED AIR. NEW ZONES OUT SHORTLY. 43
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/
DISCUSSION...
AT 2 AM...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM ABOUT TYLER TO HONDO
TO DEL RIO. A WEAK MESO-HIGH WAS LOCATED NEAR SAN ANGELO. RADAR
SHOWS A DECAYING MCS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS FEATURE COULD
SEND A PATCH OF LIGHT RAIN INTO THE SOUTHWEST ZONES THIS MORNING
BUT WILL PROBABLY SEND A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT COULD SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING. FURTHER
WEST...A CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS IN DIMMIT AND LA SALLE COUNTIES
IS MOVING E-NE AND WILL BE APPROACHING SE TX BETWEEN 13-14Z. NOT
SURE THESE STORMS WILL HOLD TOGETHER BUT AGAIN COLD SEND OFF AN
OUTFLOW TO SERVE AS FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.
MOISTURE LOOKS PLENTIFUL TODAY WITH PW VALUES PROGGED TO EXCEED
2.00 INCHES OVER PARTS OF SE TX. 850 MB TD AT BRO WAS 17 C AND 15C
AT CRP AT 00Z. THERE ALSO LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A WEAK TROUGH AT 850
MB EXTENDING THE LOUISIANA COAST TO AROUND LAREDO. THERE IS ALSO
EVIDENCE OF WEAK 850 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF. 700
MB LOOKS DRY WITH MORE PRONOUNCED RIDGING ALONG THE TEXAS COAST.
AT 250 MB...A RIBBON OF FASTER SPEEDS EXTENDED ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND A SECONDARY SPEED MAX NEAR EL PASO. WEAK
RIDGING WAS AGAIN NOTED OVER THE WESTERN GULF.
MODELS NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT TODAY OF WHEN AND WHERE
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP. THE TEXAS TECH WRF DID NOT INITIALIZE
WELL BUT IT SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE CONVECTION OVER SW TX FAIRLY
WELL WHILE THE HRRR AND RAP SEEMED TO INITIALIZE WELL AT 08Z.
THE JET STRUCTURE DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE TODAY WITH THE BEST
DIVERGENCE OVER NORTH TEXAS BUT SE TX REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE AND
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW TREMENDOUS INSTABILITY WITH CAPES AOA 3000
AND LI VALUES -10 AND LAPSE RATES ABOVE 7.0. HOWEVER THIS
INSTABILITY NEEDS TO BE TAPPED BY A PASSING S/WV OR SOME KIND OF
SFC TRIGGER AND THIS IS WHERE THINGS BECOME LESS CLEAR. OTHER THAN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...JUST CAN`T FIND A WELL DEFINED CATALYST TO
TRIGGER SHRA/TSRA. THE OTHER CONCERN REGARDING CONVECTION IS THE
850-500 RIDGE OVER THE GULF THAT IS IMPINGING ON SE TX. AM A BIT
NERVOUS THAT THIS FEATURE WILL IMPART A BIT OF SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
COAST AND SHUNT MUCH OF TODAYS PRECIP TO THE WEST. WILL MAINTAIN
LIKELY POPS OVER THE NORTH AND CHANCE POPS CENTRAL. WILL ALSO
MAINTAIN SEVERE WORDING OVER THE NORTH BUT YOU CAN`T RULE A SEVERE
STORM ANYWHERE IN THE CWA AS INSTABILITY IS IMPRESSIVE OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA.
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AS SE TX LIES IN A RRQ FOR A TIME. THE SPEED MAX WILL
EXIT BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND RAIN WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH
A W-SW SFC WIND DEVELOPING. CLOUDS WILL BREAK IN THE AFTN AND WITH
A W-SW WIND...AM EXPECTING TEMPS TO WARM UP QUICKLY. SUNDAY STILL
LOOKS IFFY AS WINDS ALOFT STAY OUT OF THE SW. WILL INTRODUCE 20
POPS FOR SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
APPROACH TX FROM THE WEST. THIS FEATURE WILL TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHRA/TSRA SUN NITE INTO MON NITE. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
AGAIN BE STRONG. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COAST ON TUES
MORNING. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. 43
MARINE...
ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH BETTER CHANCES LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY
TUESDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE MAY REACH INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 84 70 88 68 88 / 60 50 20 10 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 84 72 88 70 88 / 50 40 50 10 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 78 73 83 73 80 / 30 40 50 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
547 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
.UPDATE...
RAISING POPS PER RADAR TRENDS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WILL RAISE POPS FOR THIS MORNING AS CONVECTION IS FIRING ALONG A
WEAK 850 MB BOUNDARY. CONVECTION IS BACKBUILDING TO THE E-SE IN
LESS MODIFIED AIR. NEW ZONES OUT SHORTLY. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/
DISCUSSION...
AT 2 AM...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM ABOUT TYLER TO HONDO
TO DEL RIO. A WEAK MESO-HIGH WAS LOCATED NEAR SAN ANGELO. RADAR
SHOWS A DECAYING MCS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS FEATURE COULD
SEND A PATCH OF LIGHT RAIN INTO THE SOUTHWEST ZONES THIS MORNING
BUT WILL PROBABLY SEND A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT COULD SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING. FURTHER
WEST...A CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS IN DIMMIT AND LA SALLE COUNTIES
IS MOVING E-NE AND WILL BE APPROACHING SE TX BETWEEN 13-14Z. NOT
SURE THESE STORMS WILL HOLD TOGETHER BUT AGAIN COLD SEND OFF AN
OUTFLOW TO SERVE AS FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.
MOISTURE LOOKS PLENTIFUL TODAY WITH PW VALUES PROGGED TO EXCEED
2.00 INCHES OVER PARTS OF SE TX. 850 MB TD AT BRO WAS 17 C AND 15C
AT CRP AT 00Z. THERE ALSO LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A WEAK TROUGH AT 850
MB EXTENDING THE LOUISIANA COAST TO AROUND LAREDO. THERE IS ALSO
EVIDENCE OF WEAK 850 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF. 700
MB LOOKS DRY WITH MORE PRONOUNCED RIDGING ALONG THE TEXAS COAST.
AT 250 MB...A RIBBON OF FASTER SPEEDS EXTENDED ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND A SECONDARY SPEED MAX NEAR EL PASO. WEAK
RIDGING WAS AGAIN NOTED OVER THE WESTERN GULF.
MODELS NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT TODAY OF WHEN AND WHERE
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP. THE TEXAS TECH WRF DID NOT INITIALIZE
WELL BUT IT SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE CONVECTION OVER SW TX FAIRLY
WELL WHILE THE HRRR AND RAP SEEMED TO INITIALIZE WELL AT 08Z.
THE JET STRUCTURE DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE TODAY WITH THE BEST
DIVERGENCE OVER NORTH TEXAS BUT SE TX REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE AND
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW TREMENDOUS INSTABILITY WITH CAPES AOA 3000
AND LI VALUES -10 AND LAPSE RATES ABOVE 7.0. HOWEVER THIS
INSTABILITY NEEDS TO BE TAPPED BY A PASSING S/WV OR SOME KIND OF
SFC TRIGGER AND THIS IS WHERE THINGS BECOME LESS CLEAR. OTHER THAN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...JUST CAN`T FIND A WELL DEFINED CATALYST TO
TRIGGER SHRA/TSRA. THE OTHER CONCERN REGARDING CONVECTION IS THE
850-500 RIDGE OVER THE GULF THAT IS IMPINGING ON SE TX. AM A BIT
NERVOUS THAT THIS FEATURE WILL IMPART A BIT OF SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
COAST AND SHUNT MUCH OF TODAYS PRECIP TO THE WEST. WILL MAINTAIN
LIKELY POPS OVER THE NORTH AND CHANCE POPS CENTRAL. WILL ALSO
MAINTAIN SEVERE WORDING OVER THE NORTH BUT YOU CAN`T RULE A SEVERE
STORM ANYWHERE IN THE CWA AS INSTABILITY IS IMPRESSIVE OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA.
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AS SE TX LIES IN A RRQ FOR A TIME. THE SPEED MAX WILL
EXIT BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND RAIN WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH
A W-SW SFC WIND DEVELOPING. CLOUDS WILL BREAK IN THE AFTN AND WITH
A W-SW WIND...AM EXPECTING TEMPS TO WARM UP QUICKLY. SUNDAY STILL
LOOKS IFFY AS WINDS ALOFT STAY OUT OF THE SW. WILL INTRODUCE 20
POPS FOR SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
APPROACH TX FROM THE WEST. THIS FEATURE WILL TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHRA/TSRA SUN NITE INTO MON NITE. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
AGAIN BE STRONG. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COAST ON TUES
MORNING. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. 43
MARINE...
ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH BETTER CHANCES LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY
TUESDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE MAY REACH INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 84 70 88 68 88 / 60 50 20 10 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 84 72 88 70 88 / 40 40 50 10 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 78 73 83 73 80 / 30 40 50 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
401 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
.DISCUSSION...
AT 2 AM...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM ABOUT TYLER TO HONDO
TO DEL RIO. A WEAK MESO-HIGH WAS LOCATED NEAR SAN ANGELO. RADAR
SHOWS A DECAYING MCS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS FEATURE COULD
SEND A PATCH OF LIGHT RAIN INTO THE SOUTHWEST ZONES THIS MORNING
BUT WILL PROBABLY SEND A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT COULD SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING. FURTHER
WEST...A CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS IN DIMMIT AND LA SALLE COUNTIES
IS MOVING E-NE AND WILL BE APPROACHING SE TX BETWEEN 13-14Z. NOT
SURE THESE STORMS WILL HOLD TOGETHER BUT AGAIN COLD SEND OFF AN
OUTFLOW TO SERVE AS FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.
MOISTURE LOOKS PLENTIFUL TODAY WITH PW VALUES PROGGED TO EXCEED
2.00 INCHES OVER PARTS OF SE TX. 850 MB TD AT BRO WAS 17 C AND 15C
AT CRP AT 00Z. THERE ALSO LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A WEAK TROUGH AT 850
MB EXTENDING THE LOUISIANA COAST TO AROUND LAREDO. THERE IS ALSO
EVIDENCE OF WEAK 850 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF. 700
MB LOOKS DRY WITH MORE PRONOUNCED RIDGING ALONG THE TEXAS COAST.
AT 250 MB...A RIBBON OF FASTER SPEEDS EXTENDED ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND A SECONDARY SPEED MAX NEAR EL PASO. WEAK
RIDGING WAS AGAIN NOTED OVER THE WESTERN GULF.
MODELS NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT TODAY OF WHEN AND WHERE
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP. THE TEXAS TECH WRF DID NOT INITIALIZE
WELL BUT IT SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE CONVECTION OVER SW TX FAIRLY
WELL WHILE THE HRRR AND RAP SEEMED TO INITIALIZE WELL AT 08Z.
THE JET STRUCTURE DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE TODAY WITH THE BEST
DIVERGENCE OVER NORTH TEXAS BUT SE TX REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE AND
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW TREMENDOUS INSTABILITY WITH CAPES AOA 3000
AND LI VALUES -10 AND LAPSE RATES ABOVE 7.0. HOWEVER THIS
INSTABILITY NEEDS TO BE TAPPED BY A PASSING S/WV OR SOME KIND OF
SFC TRIGGER AND THIS IS WHERE THINGS BECOME LESS CLEAR. OTHER THAN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...JUST CAN`T FIND A WELL DEFINED CATALYST TO
TRIGGER SHRA/TSRA. THE OTHER CONCERN REGARDING CONVECTION IS THE
850-500 RIDGE OVER THE GULF THAT IS IMPINGING ON SE TX. AM A BIT
NERVOUS THAT THIS FEATURE WILL IMPART A BIT OF SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
COAST AND SHUNT MUCH OF TODAYS PRECIP TO THE WEST. WILL MAINTAIN
LIKELY POPS OVER THE NORTH AND CHANCE POPS CENTRAL. WILL ALSO
MAINTAIN SEVERE WORDING OVER THE NORTH BUT YOU CAN`T RULE A SEVERE
STORM ANYWHERE IN THE CWA AS INSTABILITY IS IMPRESSIVE OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA.
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AS SE TX LIES IN A RRQ FOR A TIME. THE SPEED MAX WILL
EXIT BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND RAIN WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH
A W-SW SFC WIND DEVELOPING. CLOUDS WILL BREAK IN THE AFTN AND WITH
A W-SW WIND...AM EXPECTING TEMPS TO WARM UP QUICKLY. SUNDAY STILL
LOOKS IFFY AS WINDS ALOFT STAY OUT OF THE SW. WILL INTRODUCE 20
POPS FOR SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
APPROACH TX FROM THE WEST. THIS FEATURE WILL TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHRA/TSRA SUN NITE INTO MON NITE. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
AGAIN BE STRONG. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COAST ON TUES
MORNING. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. 43
&&
.MARINE...
ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH BETTER CHANCES LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY
TUESDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE MAY REACH INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 84 70 88 68 88 / 60 50 20 10 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 84 72 88 70 88 / 40 40 50 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 78 73 83 73 80 / 30 40 50 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
342 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
.TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM NORTH CENTRAL IOWA AND SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO 700
MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE...AS WELL AS FROM
AN ADVANCING 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM. THESE FEATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...SPREADING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE AREA.
STRENGTH OF UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD OVERCOME DRY LOW LEVELS
BELOW 5000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL DURING THIS TIME. RAP SOUNDINGS
SHOWING WEAK ELEVATED CAPE...LITTLE TO NONE ON OTHER MODELS...SO
WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDER MENTION.
500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES EAST SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHWEST
MISSOURI TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WITH THE BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS/Q VECTOR
CONVERGENCE. THUS...THE QPF SHIELD IN THE MODELS HAS TRENDED A BIT
SOUTHWARD AS WELL.
AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF DEEP MOISTURE
IN THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LESS SO IN THE FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. LOOKS TO BE A NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT IN THE POPS
FOR THIS SYSTEM...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SYSTEM TRACK.
CONTINUED HIGH POPS IN THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH
CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR NORTH. EAST NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE TONIGHT...WITH GUSTY EAST NORTHEAST
WINDS SATURDAY. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A RAW DAY WITH THE RAIN. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40...WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 40S SATURDAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN.
.SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END SATURDAY EVENING AS
A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY. UPSTREAM 500 MB HEIGHTS BEGIN RISING OVER MINNESOTA
ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BECOMING ORIENTED
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY
MONDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT SFC RIDGING THAT BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST REGIONS ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY COOL ON SUNDAY. 925 MB TEMPERATURES IN
THE 3 TO 8C RANGE SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 AWAY FROM THE
LAKESHORE. WITH NEAR NEUTRAL LOW-LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION AND
NORTHERLY FLOW ON MONDAY EXPECT READINGS TO WARM A BIT MORE ACROSS
THE WEST. PERSISTENT EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL ONCE AGAIN PREVAIL
FOR THE EASTERN CWA ON MONDAY...KEEPING THE LAKESHORE COMMUNITIES
COOLER.
.TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
MID-LEVEL RIDGING INITIALLY OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
SHIFTS EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ADVANCES FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGIONS. SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
SHORTWAVE EVOLUTION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DETERMINISTIC 00Z ECMWF
BRINGING A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND STRONGER WAVE THROUGH SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN THAN THE 06Z GFS. 12Z ECMWF RUN APPEARS SLOWER...AND
EVOLVES A CLOSED LOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY. SOME LIGHT
PCPN IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL FORCING
FOR ASCENT APPEARS WEAK. WARMING 925 MB TEMPERATURES OF 9-12C
SUPPORT HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S AWAY FROM THE
LAKE.
.THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SETS UP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH WEAK SFC
RIDGING KEEPING THINGS QUIET ACROSS THE CWA FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF
A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA SUGGEST ADDING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD...AND DID NOT DEVIATE FROM MODEL
BLENDED CONSENSUS VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
LIGHT TO MODERATE BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DURING THIS TIME.
EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME EAST NORTHEAST BY MIDDLE TO LATE
EVENING...GRADUALLY INCREASING IN STRENGTH LATER TONIGHT.
A LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...UNTIL MAIN TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES
EAST SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS
SATURDAY.
AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS TAF SITES
BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z SATURDAY...LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY. EAST TO
EAST NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE IN STRENGTH
SATURDAY...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 24 KNOTS. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH THE RAIN. SOME IFR VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD KENOSHA...REMAINING ABOVE ALTERNATE
MINIMUMS.
&&
.MARINE...
EAST NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GATHER STRENGTH TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BECOMING NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
FROM PASSING LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BUILD WAVE HEIGHTS INTO THE 3 TO 6 FOOT RANGE FOR
THE NEARSHORE WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
LMZ645-646.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
LMZ643-644.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SPM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
222 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
AS WAVE EJECTS OUT OF SOUTHWEST U.S. MAIN FOCUS IN SHORT TERM IS
RAIN THREAT...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS SYNOPTIC SURFACE LOW PASSES
BY TO THE SOUTH.
WEAKER INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH AREA THIS
AFTERNOON HAS GENERATED BROAD RAIN SHIELD WITH SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION. CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN WISCONSIN
WILL BATTLE THIS. AS FORCING SHIFTS EAST THIS EVENING...BULK OF RAIN
SHOULD END BY EARLY EVENING WITH ONLY PATCHY THREAT AFTER THAT. THIS
TREND IS SUPPORTED IN HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND HAVE ADJUSTED RAIN
CHANCES DOWNWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT.
AS STRONGER MAIN WAVE EJECTS INTO CENTRAL U.S. TONIGHT...WITH
STRONGER...DEEPER Q-G FORCING...EXTENSIVE AREA OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ACROSS PARTS OF THE CORNBELT AND MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. BETTER AGREEMENT IN 24.12Z MODELS WITH HOW
FAR NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL GET WHILE SOME MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT KEEPING RAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 CONSISTENTLY. THIS
WILL MEAN A TIGHT NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT IN RAIN CHANCES MAINLY
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE SYSTEM EXITS BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS SURFACE
LOW SHIFTS EAST...COULD ALSO SEE INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS
PICK UP DRIER AIR TO THE NORTHEAST WHICH WOULD ALSO BATTLE NORTHWARD
EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION.
HAVE TRIED TO TIGHTEN THIS RAIN THREAT GRADIENT UP WITH UP TO AN
INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE CLOSER TO HIGHWAY 20 IN IOWA...TO NOTHING
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. NIL TO MINIMAL CAPE SUGGEST THUNDER THREAT
TOO LOW TO MENTION THIS FAR NORTH.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
SHORT TERM UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS RAIN
THREAT ENDS AND SKIES CLEAR OUT. THIS WILL LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH QUIET WEATHER ON TAP AND WARMING TEMPERATURES...CLOSER TO
NORMALS FOR LATE APRIL.
UPPER FLOW ACROSS U.S. BECOMES FAR MORE MESSY NEXT WEEK WITH LARGE
LOW OFF OF NORTHEAST AND SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS IN WEST. THIS COULD
LEAVE OUR REGION IN FAIRLY QUIET PATTERN BETWEEN ALL THIS. MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEAK WAVE COULD DRAG COLD FRONT INTO AREA
NEXT TUESDAY WITH MINOR RAIN THREAT BUT BESIDES THAT...MORE SIGNALS
FOR RIDGING AND NICE SPRING WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN A REGION OF
SOME ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE AND FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 1000-700 MB
LAYER. THESE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS. LOOKING AT THE 24.15Z HRRR AND 24.18Z NAM...THESE
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST BUT WILL HAVE A TOUGH
TIME GETTING VERY FAR INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN WHERE DEW POINTS
HAVE REMAINED IN THE TEENS. PLAN TO SHOW TEMPO GROUPS FOR BOTH TAF
SITES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SHOWERS AROUND
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS. AFTER THAT...THE FORCING
BEGINS TO REFOCUS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH THE FRONTOGENESIS
FOCUSING OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO IOWA AS THE MAIN
SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS KANSAS INTO MISSOURI. THIS SHOULD TAKE
MOST OF THE RAIN SOUTH OF BOTH TAF SITES AND WENT BACK TO JUST
VCSH FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AFTER
THAT...THINK THE ACTIVITY WILL BE TO THE SOUTH AND HAVE GONE DRY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING
MORE TO THE EAST...THIS WILL HELP TO BRING IN THE LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR WHICH SHOULD SERVE TO KEEP CEILINGS VFR ONCE THE SHOWERS ARE
OUT OF THE AREA.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM...SHEA
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
100 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
A 500 MB LOW TROUGH IS SLATED TO MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...MOVING ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY 18Z
SAT. THE TROUGH/S ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL HOLD WITH THE
TROUGH...MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE OH RIVER VALLEY
BY 00Z SUN. WHILE THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM WILL STAY SOUTH...OTHER
PARTS WILL PROVIDE A GOOD SHOT AT SOME RAIN...ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI.
FIRST...STRENGTHENING 900-800 MB FRONTOGENETIC REGION WITH A NICE
NORTH-SOUTH RUNNING SWATH OF 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO
EASTERN MN THIS AFTERNOON...WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO WESTERN WI
TONIGHT. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH THE
THERMODYNAMICS...AND EXPECT AREAS OF SHOWERS AS A RESULT.
HOWEVER...HOW FAR EAST THESE ADVANCE IS IN QUESTION. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS AND RH FIELDS POINT TO A LOT OF DRY AIR ACROSS
WI...ACTING AS AN INHIBITOR TO THE RAIN/S EASTWARD MARCH.
THAT...WITH WEAKENING FORCING MAKE CHANCES OVER WESTERN A BIT LESS
COMPARED TO EASTERN MN.
SECOND...AS THE SFC LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ITS
DEFORMATION REGION WITH SLOPING FRONTOGENETIC LIFT WILL EXTEND
ACROSS IA AND ILL. MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE LOW AND THERE SHOULD BE
AMPLE SATURATION FOR A BROAD AREA OF RAIN. HOW FAR NORTH THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES EXTEND IS THE BIGGEST QUESTION...AND NAM/GFS/EC ALL
SEEM TO FAVOR THE I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH. LOOKS REASONABLE AT THE
MOMENT. SOME SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ICE COULD BE LOST FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME OVERNIGHT...MAKING DRIZZLE MORE LIKELY. GOING TO STICK WITH
RAIN AS THE PTYPE. THIS AREA OF RAIN LOOKS MOST LIKELY SAT MORNING.
DON/T SEE MUCH OF A THUNDER THREAT AT THIS TIME...MINIMAL IF ANY
INSTABILITY...AND WHAT COULD BE THERE IS AWFULLY SKINNY. BEST
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDER WOULD BE PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE LOW...SO GOING TO LEAVE
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MOMENT.
THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW IN THE NORTH...BUT CHANCES FOR PCPN ARE
MUCH LESS...AND THE SUB CLOUD LAYER IS RATHER DRY...INHIBITING ANY
PCPN TYPE FROM REACHING THE GROUND.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE EC/GEM SOLUTION OF BUILDING A
SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. SOLUTIONS THEN FAVOR A LONG WAVE RIDGE TAKING OVER FOR NEXT
WEEK...WITH VARIOUS RIDGE RUNNERS WORKING THROUGH/ACROSS IT.
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE DUBIOUS AT
BEST...BUT THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS ALL POINT TO DRY FOR THE BETTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
WITH THE SWING BACK TO RIDGING...TEMPS SHOULD FOLLOW SUIT. EXPECTING
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN A REGION OF
SOME ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE AND FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 1000-700 MB
LAYER. THESE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS. LOOKING AT THE 24.15Z HRRR AND 24.18Z NAM...THESE
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST BUT WILL HAVE A TOUGH
TIME GETTING VERY FAR INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN WHERE DEW POINTS
HAVE REMAINED IN THE TEENS. PLAN TO SHOW TEMPO GROUPS FOR BOTH TAF
SITES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SHOWERS AROUND
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS. AFTER THAT...THE FORCING
BEGINS TO REFOCUS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH THE FRONTOGENESIS
FOCUSING OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO IOWA AS THE MAIN
SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS KANSAS INTO MISSOURI. THIS SHOULD TAKE
MOST OF THE RAIN SOUTH OF BOTH TAF SITES AND WENT BACK TO JUST
VCSH FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AFTER
THAT...THINK THE ACTIVITY WILL BE TO THE SOUTH AND HAVE GONE DRY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING
MORE TO THE EAST...THIS WILL HELP TO BRING IN THE LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR WHICH SHOULD SERVE TO KEEP CEILINGS VFR ONCE THE SHOWERS ARE
OUT OF THE AREA.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....RIECK
LONG TERM......RIECK
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1147 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
.UPDATE...
AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST IOWA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO 700
MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE...AS WELL AS FROM
AN ADVANCING 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM. THESE FEATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING...BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
AREA.
THE BEST SHOT WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...WHERE
BETTER DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD RESIDE. DRY LOW LEVELS BELOW 5000 FEET
ABOVE GROUND LEVEL MAY LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. WILL HAVE
TO ADJUST POPS AFTER WATCHING TRENDS WITH THESE SHOWERS OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOWING WEAK ELEVATED CAPE...LOWER
ON OTHER MODELS...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDER MENTION AT THIS
TIME.
EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...AS
WELL AS THE CLOUD COVER. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
50S WELL INLAND...WITH 40S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
WOOD
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON...AS EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE. ON
AND OFF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN DURING THIS TIME.
A LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...UNTIL MAIN TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES EAST
SOUTHEAST FROM IOWA INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS TAF
SITES BY MID MORNING ON SATURDAY...LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY. EAST
TO EAST NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE IN STRENGTH LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT MVFR TO SOMETIMES IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WITH THE RAIN...REMAINING ABOVE ALTERNATE MINIMUMS.
WOOD
&&
.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY...BEFORE BACKING NORTHEASTERLY AND INCREASING DURING THE
DAY WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN ADVANCING CENTRAL
PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SOUTHERN CANADIAN RIDGING.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BUILD WAVE HEIGHTS INTO THE 3 TO 6 FOOT RANGE
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS...AND WIND GUSTS INCREASE TO 20 KNOTS OR
GREATER FROM ROUGHLY 12Z TO 23Z SATURDAY. STILL APPEARS THAT A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT.
SPM
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/
SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
A VORT MAX OVER NE AND THE ASSOCIATED PVA...THETAE ADVECTION...AND
FRONTOGENESIS WILL MOVE INTO SRN WI THIS AFTERNOON. PWS WILL
INCREASE TO 0.60-0.80 INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON AND MESO MODELS ARE
SHOWING ORGANIZED AREAS OF RAIN. THE WRF MODELS ARE CONCENTRATING IN
THE SRN CWA WHILE THE HRRR IS BRINGING THE RAIN INTO THE NW CWA. THE
DIFFERENCES ARE POSSIBLY RELATED TO WHERE THE 850-700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS WILL SET UP. A CONSENSUS OF MODEL POPS DOES FOCUS MORE
IN THE SOUTH SO WENT WITH 50 POPS BY LATE AFTERNOON THERE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE FAR NE CWA. THE TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM
WELL INTO THE 50S AWAY FROM THE LAKE BEFORE THE THICKER CLOUD COVER
ARRIVES BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
KEPT THE POPS SIMILAR THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
PERIOD BEFORE BRINGING LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL POPS TO THE SW CWA.
THIS OCCURS AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT
SW MOVES TO THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z SAT. PVA AND 850 MB
FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES OVER ERN IA AND NRN IL LATE TNT THEN MOVES
INTO FAR SRN WI. EXPECT ALL RAIN WITH SFC TEMPS COOLING INTO THE MID
30S OVER CENTRAL WI TO UPPER 30S FARTHER SOUTH.
SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS THEY
TRACK FROM THE IA/MO BORDER TO SOUTHERN IL ON SATURDAY. IT WILL BE A
RAW DAY IN SOUTHERN WI WITH A DRIVING RAIN FROM THE EAST...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. SOUTHERN WI WILL BE IN THE REGION OF
VORTICITY ADVECTION... UPPER DIVERGENCE AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
DUE TO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET... AND 700MB
FRONTOGENESIS AND STRONG UPWARD MOTION. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE A TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE QPF AMOUNTS. HIGHEST AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
CONCENTRATED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ONE OR TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES IN
SOUTHERN WI AND THEN SOUTH OF THE WI/IL BORDER CLOSEST TO THE LOW.
THE GFS IS FARTHEST NORTH WITH THE HIGHER QPF THAN THE
CANADIAN...ECMWF AND 06Z NAM.
THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS WI DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THE
THERMAL PROFILE LOOKS LIKE RAIN FOR THE WHOLE MKX AREA... BUT IT
WILL BE CLOSE WITH A DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER RIGHT AROUND ZERO.
PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EXPECT DRY WEATHER
WITH A BRISK NNE WIND SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY AIR SPREADING INTO THE
REGION QUICKLY SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
EXPECT LOWS TO BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING.
LONG TERM...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY
WEATHER UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON
THE RISE FOR INLAND AREAS... BUT A PERSISTENT EASTERLY BREEZE OFF OF
LAKE MICHIGAN WILL KEEP LAKESHORE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
A 500MB TROUGH WILL CROSS WI TUESDAY EVENING WHICH COULD BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES. THE GFS IS INITIALLY MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
THIS TROUGH THAN THE ECMWF... BUT THEN STALLS THE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST STATES LONGER THAN THE ECMWF LATER NEXT WEEK. OVERALL
SOUTHERN WI SHOULD BE DRY... BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS SRN
WI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH SCT SHOWERS AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY SO
VFR CONDITIONS WILL STILL PREVAIL WITH PERHAPS MVFR VSBYS WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT MAY OCCUR. THE RAIN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
FOR SAT AM AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE AREA
MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. SAT AM
IS WHEN THE CIGS WILL DROP TO 1-3.0 KFT AND VSBYS TO 3-5SM WITH THE
WIDESPREAD MDT RAINFALL.
MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SAT AND
SAT NT. BRISK ELY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON SAT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN POLAR HIGH PRESSURE OVER SRN CANADA AND LOW
PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MS
RIVER VALLEY. THE WINDS WILL TURN NELY FOR SAT AFT AND NIGHT AS THE
LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO
3 TO 5 FEET DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WOOD/SPM
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
415 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
A VORT MAX OVER NE AND THE ASSOCIATED PVA...THETAE ADVECTION...AND
FRONTOGENESIS WILL MOVE INTO SRN WI THIS AFTERNOON. PWS WILL
INCREASE TO 0.60-0.80 INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON AND MESO MODELS ARE
SHOWING ORGANIZED AREAS OF RAIN. THE WRF MODELS ARE CONCENTRATING IN
THE SRN CWA WHILE THE HRRR IS BRINGING THE RAIN INTO THE NW CWA. THE
DIFFERENCES ARE POSSIBLY RELATED TO WHERE THE 850-700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS WILL SET UP. A CONSENSUS OF MODEL POPS DOES FOCUS MORE
IN THE SOUTH SO WENT WITH 50 POPS BY LATE AFTERNOON THERE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE FAR NE CWA. THE TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM
WELL INTO THE 50S AWAY FROM THE LAKE BEFORE THE THICKER CLOUD COVER
ARRIVES BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
KEPT THE POPS SIMILAR THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
PERIOD BEFORE BRINGING LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL POPS TO THE SW CWA.
THIS OCCURS AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT
SW MOVES TO THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z SAT. PVA AND 850 MB
FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES OVER ERN IA AND NRN IL LATE TNT THEN MOVES
INTO FAR SRN WI. EXPECT ALL RAIN WITH SFC TEMPS COOLING INTO THE MID
30S OVER CENTRAL WI TO UPPER 30S FARTHER SOUTH.
SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS THEY
TRACK FROM THE IA/MO BORDER TO SOUTHERN IL ON SATURDAY. IT WILL BE A
RAW DAY IN SOUTHERN WI WITH A DRIVING RAIN FROM THE EAST...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. SOUTHERN WI WILL BE IN THE REGION OF
VORTICITY ADVECTION... UPPER DIVERGENCE AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
DUE TO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET... AND 700MB
FRONTOGENESIS AND STRONG UPWARD MOTION. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE A TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE QPF AMOUNTS. HIGHEST AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
CONCENTRATED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ONE OR TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES IN
SOUTHERN WI AND THEN SOUTH OF THE WI/IL BORDER CLOSEST TO THE LOW.
THE GFS IS FARTHEST NORTH WITH THE HIGHER QPF THAN THE
CANADIAN...ECMWF AND 06Z NAM.
THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS WI DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THE
THERMAL PROFILE LOOKS LIKE RAIN FOR THE WHOLE MKX AREA... BUT IT
WILL BE CLOSE WITH A DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER RIGHT AROUND ZERO.
PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EXPECT DRY WEATHER
WITH A BRISK NNE WIND SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY AIR SPREADING INTO THE
REGION QUICKLY SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
EXPECT LOWS TO BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING.
.LONG TERM...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY
WEATHER UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON
THE RISE FOR INLAND AREAS... BUT A PERSISTENT EASTERLY BREEZE OFF OF
LAKE MICHIGAN WILL KEEP LAKESHORE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
A 500MB TROUGH WILL CROSS WI TUESDAY EVENING WHICH COULD BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES. THE GFS IS INITIALLY MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
THIS TROUGH THAN THE ECWMF... BUT THEN STALLS THE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST STATES LONGER THAN THE ECMWF LATER NEXT WEEK. OVERALL
SOUTHERN WI SHOULD BE DRY... BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS SRN
WI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH SCT SHOWERS AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY SO
VFR CONDITIONS WILL STILL PREVAIL WITH PERHAPS MVFR VSBYS WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT MAY OCCUR. THE RAIN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
FOR SAT AM AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE AREA
MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. SAT AM
IS WHEN THE CIGS WILL DROP TO 1-3.0 KFT AND VSBYS TO 3-5SM WITH THE
WIDESPREAD MDT RAINFALL.
&&
.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SAT AND
SAT NT. BRISK ELY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON SAT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN POLAR HIGH PRESSURE OVER SRN CANADA AND LOW
PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MS
RIVER VALLEY. THE WINDS WILL TURN NELY FOR SAT AFT AND NIGHT AS THE
LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO
3 TO 5 FEET DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
333 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
A VORT MAX OVER NE AND THE ASSOCIATED PVA...THETAE ADVECTION...AND
FRONTOGENESIS WILL MOVE INTO SRN WI THIS AFTERNOON. PWS WILL
INCREASE TO 0.60-0.80 INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON AND MESO MODELS ARE
SHOWING ORGANIZED AREAS OF RAIN. THE WRF MODELS ARE CONCENTRATING IN
THE SRN CWA WHILE THE HRRR IS BRINGING THE RAIN INTO THE NW CWA. THE
DIFFERENCES ARE POSSIBLY RELATED TO WHERE THE 850-700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS WILL SET UP. A CONSENSUS OF MODEL POPS DOES FOCUS MORE
IN THE SOUTH SO WENT WITH 50 POPS BY LATE AFTERNOON THERE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE FAR NE CWA. THE TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM
WELL INTO THE 50S AWAY FROM THE LAKE BEFORE THE THICKER CLOUD COVER
ARRIVES BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
KEPT THE POPS SIMILAR THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
PERIOD BEFORE BRINGING LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL POPS TO THE SW CWA.
THIS OCCURS AS A STONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT
SW MOVES TO THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z SAT. PVA AND 850 MB
FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES OVER ERN IA AND NRN IL LATE TNT THEN MOVES
INTO FAR SRN WI. EXPECT ALL RAIN WITH SFC TEMPS COOLING INTO THE MID
30S OVER CENTRAL WI TO UPPER 30S FARTHER SOUTH.
SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS THEY
TRACK FROM THE IA/MO BORDER TO SOUTHERN IL ON SATURDAY. IT WILL BE A
RAW DAY IN SOUTHERN WI WITH A DRIVING RAIN FROM THE EAST...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. SOUTHERN WI WILL BE IN THE REGION OF
VORTICITY ADVECTION... UPPER DIVERGENCE AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
DUE TO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET... AND 700MB
FRONTOGENESIS AND STRONG UPWARD MOTION. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE A TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE QPF AMOUNTS. HIGHEST AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
CONCENTRATED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ONE OR TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES IN
SOUTHERN WI AND THEN SOUTH OF THE WI/IL BORDER CLOSEST TO THE LOW.
THE GFS IS FARTHEST NORTH WITH THE HIGHER QPF THAN THE
CANADIAN...ECMWF AND 06Z NAM.
THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS WI DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THE
THERMAL PROFILE LOOKS LIKE RAIN FOR THE WHOLE MKX AREA... BUT IT
WILL BE CLOSE WITH A DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER RIGHT AROUND ZERO.
PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EXPECT DRY WEATHER
WITH A BRISK NNE WIND SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY AIR SPREADING INTO THE
REGION QUICKLY SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
EXPECT LOWS TO BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING.
.LONG TERM...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY
WEATHER UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON
THE RISE FOR INLAND AREAS... BUT A PERSISTENT EASTERLY BREEZE OFF OF
LAKE MICHIGAN WILL KEEP LAKESHORE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
A 500MB TROUGH WILL CROSS WI TUESDAY EVENING WHICH COULD BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES. THE GFS IS INITIALLY MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
THIS TROUGH THAN THE ECWMF... BUT THEN STALLS THE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST STATES LONGER THAN THE ECMWF LATER NEXT WEEK. OVERALL
SOUTHERN WI SHOULD BE DRY... BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...COMING SOON.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
153 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN MOVES IN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF THE NC/SC BORDER
TONIGHT. OBSERVATIONS SHOW NORTHEASTERLY WINDS NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHICH IS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO CONTINUE BEHIND THE QLCS DEPARTING OFF THE COAST. THE
HIGHEST MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
COUNTIES. MESOANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY
REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LIFTED
INDICES AS LOW AS -4/-5 IN THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF THE FA. EXPECT
THIS AREA TO SEE A MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE ACTIVITY FAIRLY
WELL AND SHOWS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY DEPARTING THE FORECAST AREA BY
06Z SO HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN OVERNIGHT. OBSERVATIONS SHOW LOW
VISIBILITIES IN LANCASTER AND CHESTERFIELD COUNTIES CLOSE TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL
SOME OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN MILD...ONLY FALLING INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY WITH THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS LIKELY TO BE MORE FAVORED SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW
SINKS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS VA/NC AND OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY EVENING.
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND COLD 500 MB TEMPS NOTED ON
SUNDAY BUT MOISTURE MAY BE LACKING TO SUPPORT MUCH CONVECTION SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A WARM DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE THE EXTREME NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE COOLER BEHIND THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
PATTERN NEXT WEEK. ON MON/TUE THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST AND YET ANOTHER SLOW
MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW EJECTING EASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES. EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH A
PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN
TO OPEN AND DRIFT EASTWARD EVENTUALLY PHASING WITH NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO OUR AREA TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE LATEST
GFS RUN AND THE PREVIOUS ECMWF FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD.
THE PREVIOUS ECMWF SHOWS SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. THE LATEST
GFS SHOWS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BUT ALSO SHOWS ANOTHER CUT-OFF UPPER LOW FORMING OVER
THE EASTERN GULF COAST. THIS FEATURE COULD SPREAD PRECIPITATION
BACK INTO SC BY LATE SATURDAY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DRY AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AT OR
JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EVENING CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA AND DRIER AIR
ALOFT IS MOVING IN. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NC/VA MOUNTAINS AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS NC
THROUGH THE DAY. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD LIFR
STRATUS/FOG ON THE NORTHSIDE OF A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS. THIS FRONT AND RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT BUT THERE HAVE BEEN SIGNS
OF POCKETS OF LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING DUE TO NOCTURNAL COOLING AND
MOS GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS IMPACTING THE
TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE IFR CIGS DEVELOPING BUT WILL
CARRY A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS 08Z-12Z. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AROUND
35 KNOTS SHOULD PREVENT/LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT ALTHOUGH IT CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL
ALLOW STRONG MIXING TO OCCUR DURING THE DAY TODAY AND EXPECT
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS.
STRONG INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON BUT LIMITED MOISTURE PRECLUDES
ANY MENTION OF TSRA IN THIS FORECAST THOUGH THERE IS REASON TO
BELIEVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITH DIURNAL
HEATING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
326 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IT SEEMS THE BEST
WAY TO DESCRIBE TODAY`S WEATHER IS MESSY. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
SPLIT AS IT IS MOVING EAST. DRIER AIR IS ALREADY WORKING INTO THE
WESTERN FRINGE OF OUR FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...A PRETTY
PERSISTENT BAND OF RAIN AND SNOW EXTENDS FROM AROUND CHALLIS TO
POCATELLO TO NEAR MALAD. AT THE SAME TIME...RAIN AND SNOW IS
INCREASING TO THE EAST OF THE BAND. SNOW IS FALLING DOWN TO
6000-6500FT. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME OF THE HIGHER PASSES...LIKE
WE`VE ALREADY SEEN AT WILLOW CREEK SUMMIT...GETTING SNOW AT TIMES.
HOWEVER...THE IMPACTS FOR MOST OF THEM WILL BE MINIMAL EXCEPT FOR
WILLOW CREEK AND HEADING OVER TETON PASS. THOSE TWO PASSES WILL
EVENTUALLY SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING. AS THE DAY
WEARS ON...WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS WITH
THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS WILL BOUNCE BACK TO
6500-7500FT BY AFTERNOON. IT DOES APPEAR THAT WE WILL SEE SOME
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
SNAKE PLAIN. THE GFS AND THE HRRR ARE ACTUALLY TRYING TO DEPICT
THE POTENTIAL FOR A CONVERGENCE BAND...POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS
CRATERS TO AROUND FORT HALL. THAT IS SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN TWO
SEPARATE LOCATIONS TODAY. THE FIRST WILL BE ACROSS THE UPPER PLAIN
AND HIGHLANDS AS NORTHERLY WINDS KICK IN. THE MAGIC VALLEY AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGHLANDS IS THE OTHER...AND WILL LIKELY SEE THE
STRONGEST WINDS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 MPH ARE FORECAST WITH
30-35 MPH IN ISOLATED SPOTS. THIS IS TOO LOW FOR A WIND
ADVISORY...BUT IF ENOUGH PLOWING IS ONGOING THERE COULD BE SOME
BLOWING DUST IN AREAS THAT SAW LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE DRIER AND MUCH WARMER WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST. BY TUESDAY...HIGHS WILL BE WELL
INTO THE 70S FOR THE VALLEYS AND 50S/60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. KEYES
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND A
STRONG UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE PAC NW BY WED MORN. THE TROF THEN
PASSES THRU ID ON THU. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL MTNS WED
AFTN AS THE INCREASING SW FLOW INTERACTS WITH THE TERRAIN. PRECIP
INCREASES IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND INTO THE UPPER
SNAKE HIGHLANDS WED NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROF APPROACHES. BY THU...A
COLD FRONT PASSES THRU PUSHING MOST OF THE PRECIP OUT OF THE AREA
EXCEPT FOR LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. STRONG WEST
TO SW WINDS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS ON THU. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE
SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO PRECIP IS A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN
THE MOSTLY DRY GFS. NOW THE PICTURE GETS MUDDY. THE GFS DEVELOPS A
BROAD RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW ON FRI...WHILE THE ECMWF DOES JUST THE
OPPOSITE WITH A BROAD TROF. THE GFS MAINTAINS A DRY FCST THRU SUN
WITH A DOMINANT RIDGE...WHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER
WA. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS A WET SUN AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS IS
DRY. WILL CARRY LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS SUN
AND SUN NIGHT AND LEAVE THE REST OF THE FCST AREA DRY UNTIL THE
PICTURE BECOMES CLEARER. HEDGES
&&
.AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORN...WITH
IMPROVING CIGS BY AFTN. SW WINDS WILL BR RATHER STRONG TODAY ACROSS
THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN BY EVE. HEDGES
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
344 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE THE KEY TO CHANCES OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS TODAY. AT THIS TIME
THE DEPTH OF THIS MOIST LAYER WILL BE JUST BELOW 3000FT AGL BASED
ON THE NAM AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE DEPTH OF THIS MOIST LAYER
WILL BE SLIGHTLY DEEPER WEST OF HIGHWAY 283 THAN EAST SO GIVEN
THIS WILL FAVOR KEEPING A MENTION OF DRIZZLE GOING NEAR AND WEST
OF DODGE CITY TODAY. IN ADDITION 700MB TO 500MB LAPSE RATES ARE
FORECAST TO BE GREATER THAN 8C/KM AS A WEAK 400MB POTENTIAL
VORTICITY ANOMALY CROSSES SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS
MAY BRIEFLY ENHANCE LIFT ENOUGH FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAINSHOWERS DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO WARM
MUCH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER SO HAVE
KEPT THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND TO AROUND 10 DEGREES OR LESS.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
AFTER 00Z MONDAY ANOTHER, STRONGER, UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE
NORTH ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND APPROACH SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
GIVEN SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND IMPROVING LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
NEXT UPPER WAVE EARLY TONIGHT THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION TO OCCUR, MAINLY IN SOUTHERN KANSAS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER. CURRENTLY AM CONCERNED ABOUT HOW FAR NORTH THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE 700MB TO
500MB DEFORMATION ZONE AND THE SLIGHTLY TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW
ACROSS WEST TEXAS. GIVEN THIS TREND ALONG WITH WHERE THE BETTER
MOISTURE, INSTABILITY AND LIFT WILL BE OVERNIGHT WILL BEGIN TO
LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. FURTHER
SOUTH THE HIGHEST FOR OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
THE NAM AND THE ECMWF ARE THE SOLUTIONS WITH THE SHARPEST CUTOFF OF
PLACEMENT OF THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF COLD CONVEYOR BELT
PRECIPITATION/CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS COUNTIES FOR
MONDAY. BY COMPARISON, THE GFS IS THE FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION.
HOWEVER IN EITHER CASE, THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SUGGEST A WEDGE
OF DRY MID LEVEL AIR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE DEFORMATION AXIS,
SUGGESTING LOWERED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES, FROM AROUND SCOTT CITY TO HAYS. AS SUCH WE`VE USED A
MODEL BLEND TOWARD THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS WHICH IS WARMER ACROSS OUR
FURTHEST NORTHEAST COUNTIES, AND CONTINUED TO TREND LOWER THE POPS
ACROSS THOSE AREAS. CAPE IS BASICALLY NONEXISTENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES EARLY MONDAY, LEAVING DEFORMATION AND ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE THE MAIN MECHANISMS FOR FORCING, PRODUCING RAIN, AND COOL
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
BEYOND THE MONDAY TIMEFRAME, THE PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY BENIGN WITH
A MEAN WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES MAY WARM TO
THE 80S BY THE THURSDAY-SATURDAY TIMEFRAME AS A SOUTHWEST SURFACE
FLOW DEVELOPS. THE POLAR WESTERLIES SETUP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH A STRONG WAVE MODELED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF TO DIVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AROUND LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT COULD BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION, WHICH THE GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER THE BLEND SOLUTION DERTERMINES
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR MEASUREABLE PRECIPITATION TO BE SATURDAY
NIGHT OR SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS EARLY TONIGHT SHOWING LIFR
CEILINGS SPREADING SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. BASED ON
LOWERING CEILINGS FROM THE UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS, 00Z NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS, ALONG WITH THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR THE CEILINGS WILL
FALL INTO THE LIFR CATEGORY BY 06Z SUNDAY AND THEN REMAIN BELOW
500FT AGL THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z. CEILINGS WILL THEN GRADUALLY
IMPROVE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z. VISIBILITIES
SHOULD STAY IN THE MVFR CATEGORY BASED ON THE MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
GIVEN THAT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 56 42 48 40 / 10 60 60 30
GCK 54 43 47 38 / 20 50 60 20
EHA 56 41 46 38 / 30 90 80 30
LBL 58 45 46 40 / 40 80 80 40
HYS 55 41 59 40 / 10 20 30 20
P28 65 48 50 43 / 10 70 70 50
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
237 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
...UPDATED SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE THE KEY TO CHANCES OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS TODAY. AT THIS TIME
THE DEPTH OF THIS MOIST LAYER WILL BE JUST BELOW 3000FT AGL BASED
ON THE NAM AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE DEPTH OF THIS MOIST LAYER
WILL BE SLIGHTLY DEEPER WEST OF HIGHWAY 283 THAN EAST SO GIVEN
THIS WILL FAVOR KEEPING A MENTION OF DRIZZLE GOING NEAR AND WEST
OF DODGE CITY TODAY. IN ADDITION 700MB TO 500MB LAPSE RATES ARE
FORECAST TO BE GREATER THAN 8C/KM AS A WEAK 400MB POTENTIAL
VORTICITY ANOMALY CROSSES SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS
MAY BRIEFLY ENHANCE LIFT ENOUGH FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAINSHOWERS DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO WARM
MUCH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER SO HAVE
KEPT THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND TO AROUND 10 DEGREES OR LESS.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
AFTER 00Z MONDAY ANOTHER, STRONGER, UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE
NORTH ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND APPROACH SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
GIVEN SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND IMPROVING LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
NEXT UPPER WAVE EARLY TONIGHT THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION TO OCCUR, MAINLY IN SOUTHERN KANSAS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER. CURRENTLY AM CONCERNED ABOUT HOW FAR NORTH THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE 700MB TO
500MB DEFORMATION ZONE AND THE SLIGHTLY TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW
ACROSS WEST TEXAS. GIVEN THIS TREND ALONG WITH WHERE THE BETTER
MOISTURE, INSTABILITY AND LIFT WILL BE OVERNIGHT WILL BEGIN TO
LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. FURTHER
SOUTH THE HIGHEST FOR OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SPREADING FROM FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS INTO
MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR OR SOUTH OF HAYS. WILL RANGE
RAIN CHANCES FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT AT HAYS TO 60 AT DODGE CITY
AND AROUND 90 PERCENT AT LIBERAL AND ELKHART. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY, WITH OVER AN INCH SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF
DODGE CITY. LOWS MONDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLEST OVER WESTERN KANSAS WITH HIGHS FROM THE
MID AND UPPER 40S THERE, TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S EAST OF DODGE
CITY.
FOR TUESDAY, THE UPPER LOW OVER OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST. THE
NEW ECMWF HAS THE LOW MOVING OUT MUCH FASTER THAN THE GFS AND
CANADIAN. WILL CONTINUE WITH LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING FROM NEAR
DODGE CITY AND SOUTH. LOWS TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE FROM 39 WEST TO
THE MID 40S OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WITH A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES SLOWLY MOVING EAST INTO
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL WARM FROM THE
40S TO THE 50S. HIGHS WILL WARM FROM THE LOW 70S ON WEDNESDAY TO
AROUND 80 FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS EARLY TONIGHT SHOWING LIFR
CEILINGS SPREADING SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. BASED ON
LOWERING CEILINGS FROM THE UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS, 00Z NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS, ALONG WITH THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR THE CEILINGS WILL
FALL INTO THE LIFR CATEGORY BY 06Z SUNDAY AND THEN REMAIN BELOW
500FT AGL THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z. CEILINGS WILL THEN GRADUALLY
IMPROVE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z. VISIBILITIES
SHOULD STAY IN THE MVFR CATEGORY BASED ON THE MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
GIVEN THAT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 57 42 53 41 / 20 60 60 30
GCK 53 43 49 40 / 30 50 60 20
EHA 54 41 46 39 / 50 90 90 40
LBL 57 45 48 41 / 30 80 90 50
HYS 54 41 58 40 / 20 20 30 20
P28 65 48 56 44 / 10 70 70 50
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1217 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
AT 00Z SUNDAY A +100KT 250MB JET WAS LOCATED ON THE WEST SIDE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN NEVADA INTO
EASTERN WASHINGTON. EAST OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH A WEAK 500MB
RIDGE AXIS WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
ALSO EVIDENT OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WAS A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. ONE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AT 00Z SUNDAY APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO
INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY APPEARS TO EXTEND
FROM SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS. BEHIND THIS SECOND
BOUNDARY COOLER AIR WAS PRESENT AT THE SURFACE AND THE 850MB LEVEL
ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS SPREADING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT TRAVERSED THE CENTRAL PLAINS
YESTERDAY HAS MOVED EASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST, SHIFTING THE LOW
LEVEL MOIST AXIS EASTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS HAD RESULT IN
DOWNSLOPE WARMING, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. SOME COLD ADVECTION WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS. SOME CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG A WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ZONE; AND A FEW SHOWERS WITH A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS THROUGH THE EVENING. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WAS DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. AS THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PROGRESS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT, A
COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO NEBRASKA WILL MOVE
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO KANSAS, WITH UPSLOPE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS
DEVELOPING. THIS COOLER UPSTREAM AIRMASS WAS ALREADY MOIST, WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S ACROSS
EASTERN NEBRASKA. THEREFORE, AS THIS AIR MOVES UP SLOPE INTO
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS, EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDINESS WILL RESULT. IN
ADDITION, THE MOIST LAYER WILL APPROACH 1 KM IN DEPTH, WHICH WOULD
BE FAVORABLE FOR DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT TOWARD MORNING, ESPECIALLY FROM
GARDEN CITY AND SCOTT CITY WESTWARD TO THE COLORADO BORDER. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MOVES EVEN CLOSER AND
BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF, THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HAD BEEN SUPPRESSED
WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW AND OVER THE LOW LEVEL FRONTAL SURFACE. HOWEVER, ANY
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL JUST AFTER 7 PM
SUNDAY, SO THAT THE DETAILS OF THIS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE LONG
TERM DISCUSSION. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE CLOUDY AIRMASS OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY SHOULD ONLY RISE A FEW DEGREES DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVER, WITH 50S ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN KANSAS, AND SOME
60S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SPREADING FROM FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS INTO
MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR OR SOUTH OF HAYS. WILL RANGE
RAIN CHANCES FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT AT HAYS TO 60 AT DODGE CITY
AND AROUND 90 PERCENT AT LIBERAL AND ELKHART. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY, WITH OVER AN INCH SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF
DODGE CITY. LOWS MONDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLEST OVER WESTERN KANSAS WITH HIGHS FROM THE
MID AND UPPER 40S THERE, TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S EAST OF DODGE
CITY.
FOR TUESDAY, THE UPPER LOW OVER OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST. THE
NEW ECMWF HAS THE LOW MOVING OUT MUCH FASTER THAN THE GFS AND
CANADIAN. WILL CONTINUE WITH LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING FROM NEAR
DODGE CITY AND SOUTH. LOWS TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE FROM 39 WEST TO
THE MID 40S OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WITH A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES SLOWLY MOVING EAST INTO
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL WARM FROM THE
40S TO THE 50S. HIGHS WILL WARM FROM THE LOW 70S ON WEDNESDAY TO
AROUND 80 FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS EARLY TONIGHT SHOWING LIFR
CEILINGS SPREADING SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. BASED ON
LOWERING CEILINGS FROM THE UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS, 00Z NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS, ALONG WITH THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR THE CEILINGS WILL
FALL INTO THE LIFR CATEGORY BY 06Z SUNDAY AND THEN REMAIN BELOW
500FT AGL THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z. CEILINGS WILL THEN GRADUALLY
IMPROVE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z. VISIBILITIES
SHOULD STAY IN THE MVFR CATEGORY BASED ON THE MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
GIVEN THAT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 42 53 41 64 / 60 60 30 20
GCK 43 49 40 65 / 60 60 20 10
EHA 41 46 39 61 / 90 90 40 10
LBL 45 48 41 62 / 80 90 50 20
HYS 41 58 40 67 / 30 30 20 10
P28 48 56 44 65 / 60 70 50 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
507 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO SRN HUDSON BAY. TO THE SE...A MID LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH ITS BROAD CIRCULATION
EXTENDING BACK TO THE UPPER LAKES. TWO SHORTWAVES OF NOTE ARE
SWINGING W IN THE MID LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION ACROSS SE CANADA. THE
FIRST IS S OF JAMES BAY AND THE SECOND IS N OF MAINE. AT THE SFC...
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS SUPPORTING HIGH PRES RIDGING S FROM HUDSON
BAY INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UNDER DRY AIR MASS PER 00Z
REGIONAL SOUNDINGS...CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FCST
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. TO THE NE...FIRST SHORTWAVE S OF JAMES IS
HELPING TO SPREAD SCT-BKN CLOUDS TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE S OF JAMES BAY WILL ROTATE INTO NRN LWR MI THIS
AFTN/EVENING...SPREADING SOME CLOUDINESS INTO THE ERN FCST AREA
TODAY. TRENDS IN THE MODELS SHOW A BACKING OFF ON THE POTENTIAL
CLOUD COVER WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON OVERNIGHT SATELLITE
IMAGERY. FCST THUS REFLECTS A MORE OPTIMISTIC SKY CONDITION FOR
CNTRL UPPER MI TODAY. MAY STILL SEE SOME PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS OVER THE ERN FCST AREA THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY LATE. AS
FOR TEMPS...RATHER BRISK GRADIENT FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL HOLD
TEMPS TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. MOST LAKESIDE
LOCATIONS FROM THE KEWEENAW EASTWARD WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 30S.
WELL INLAND...NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS AND PROJECTED MIXING HEIGHTS
SUGGEST HIGH TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 50F. THERE MAY BE SOME LWR
50S TOWARD THE MI/WI BORDER FROM MENOMINEE COUNTY TO IRON COUNTY.
TONIGHT...SECOND SHORTWAVE NOW N OF MAINE WILL FOLLOW THE SAME TRACK
AS THE FIRST AND SHOULD REACH NRN LWR MI LATE TONIGHT. MODELS ARE
AGGRESSIVE IN SWINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO UPPER MI TONIGHT WITH THIS
FEATURE. OF PARTICULAR NOTE IS THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THE NAM/GFS
SHOW. LOOKING TO THE NE...LOW CIGS ARE NOTED IN AND AROUND JAMES BAY
AND EASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH THIS MOISTURE PUSHING SW INTO
THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT WHEN DAYTIME HEATING IS ABSENT TO HELP
LIFT OR MIX MOISTURE OUT...IT LOOKS FAIRLY LIKELY THAT LOW CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP/EXPAND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY LATE...OVER AT LEAST THE
NCNTRL AND E...AIDED BY UPSLOPE FLOW. NAM FCST SOUNDINGS EVEN
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME -DZ/-FZDZ WHERE STRONGEST UPSLOPE
OCCURS. WILL BE SOMETHING TO TAKE A LOOK AT AGAIN IN LATER MODEL
RUNS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH SUN NIGHT WILL LEAD TO CLOUD COVER EARLY
MON OVER ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL AND ERN CWA. THE CLOUD COVER WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH AS THE SFC RIDGE MOVES BACK IN FROM THE W AS WELL AS
THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER RIDGE. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME
LIGHT DRIZZLE IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF NCENTRAL UPPER MI...BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. INTERIOR W SHOULD SEE HIGHS
APPROACH 60F ON MON...WHILE LAKESHORE AND ERN AREAS ARE QUITE A BIT
COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE UPPER 40S.
A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE TUE
EVENING AND AGAIN ON WED...WITH MODELS CURRENTLY SHOWING THE
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ON WED. MODELS HAVE NOT SHOWN GOOD CONTINUITY
WITH THESE FEATURES...SO CONFIDENCE IN EXACT DETAILS IS LOW.
HOWEVER...MODEL DO GENERALLY AGREE THAT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED
ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP FROM OCCURING. TUE WILL BE
WARMER THAN MON WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S AS THE AIRMASS WILL BE
WARMER AND THE SHORTWAVE/CLOUD COVER DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER IN
THE DAY. WED COULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT COOLER AIRMASS DEPENDING ON
DETAILS WITH THE SHORTWAVE...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE
40S TO MID 50S.
UPPER RIDGING REPLACES THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY THU INTO FRI. MODELS
HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH CONTINUITY IN THE STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE...LIMITED CONFIDENCE SOME. HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE 50S TO
MID 60S...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S ON
FRI. MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND DISCONTINUITY CERTAINLY CONTINUE AND
INCREASE ON SAT AS MODELS VARY VASTLY IN THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT
OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER CENTRAL CANADA. MODELS SHOW SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE CWA WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH LATE
FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WHICH COULD PRODUCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA.
WILL CONTINUE SHOWING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.
ADDITIONAL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS /ALSO TIED TO UNCERTAINTIES
WITH THE CENTRAL CANADA ENERGY/ WITH TEMPS ON SAT. THE 12Z/25 ECMWF
BRINGS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE TO JUST W OF THE CWA BY 00Z SUN
WHILE THE 00Z/26 GFS HAS AN UPPER TROUGH WHERE THE ECMWF HAS THE
RIDGE. AIRMASS WILL BE A LOT WARMER UNDER THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH
850MB TEMPS OF 12C BY 00Z SUN WHILE THE GFS IS AT 8C. WHILE
POTENTIAL FOR MUCH WARMER TEMPS EXISTS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH A CONSENSUS APPROACH WITH HIGHS INT HE 60S AND 70S
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT WEST OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW AT ALL THREE TAF SITES UNDER VFR
CONDITIONS. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP UNDER THE LOW LEVEL NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW EARLY THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE DAY AT KSAW AND MAYBE KCMX. SINCE THE LOW
CLOUDS IN NORTHERN ONTARIO HAVE STRUGGLED TO EXPAND THUS FAR AND
MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER...OPTED TO BACK AWAY FROM THE MVFR CEILINGS
AT KSAW FOR EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE STILL
KEPT SCT CLOUDS FOR THAT PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING S THRU WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY THRU
MON...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...MOSTLY UNDER
15KT. OVER THE E...WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 20-25KT. THE
RIDGE WILL WEAKEN TUE AND GIVE WAY TO LOW PRES TROF PASSAGE TUE
NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...ANOTHER HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE S FROM HUDSON BAY
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WED/THU. WITH PRES GRADIENT ON THE WEAK
SIDE...WINDS TUE THRU THU SHOULD BE UNDER 15KT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME STRONGER WINDS ON WED AS THE HIGH BEGINS
RIDGING S INTO THE UPPER LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
350 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
A VERY PLEASANT DAY IS AHEAD WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING
STEADY FROM WESTERN ONTARIO THROUGH MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. THE
SKY WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TODAY AS WELL AS TONIGHT ALONG WITH A
LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SIMILAR
THOSE ON SATURDAY WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FORECAST...WHICH IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE SEASONAL NORMAL. THE FORECAST HIGHS TODAY LINE
UP WELL WITH MIX-DOWN FROM THE NAM AT 825MB ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
SUPER.
THE REAL CHALLENGE TODAY IS HOW LOW WILL DEW POINTS DROP...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL MN...AND THE CORRESPONDING AFTERNOON
MINIMUM HUMIDITY. THE LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW BROUGHT DEW POINTS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS INTO NORTHEAST MN SATURDAY
EVENING. DEW POINTS NEAR 20 DEGREES ARE NOW PREVALENT ACROSS
CENTRAL MN EARLY THIS MORNING. THE NAM AND RAP HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE SITUATION AND LOWER DEW POINTS TO NEAR 15 DEGREES ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON WITH AROUND 20 HERE IN THE TWIN
CITIES AND WEST CENTRAL WI. THIS RESULTS IN NEAR 15 PERCENT
MINIMUM HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL MN WITH 20
PERCENT HERE IN THE CITIES AND WEST CENTRAL WI. SOUTHERN AREAS OF
MN BOTTOM OUT AROUND 25 PERCENT. FORTUNATELY...THE NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON
KEEPING THE FIRE THREAT MAINLY IN THE LIMITED RANGE WITH ELEVATED
INDICATED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
MILD TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TAP FOR NEXT WEEK...WITH TWO
MOISTURE STARVED FRONTS TRAVERSING THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
THE TROUBLE MAKER FOR MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED CONTINUES
TO BE THE EVOLUTION OF THE DEEP CLOSED H5 LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND NEXT
WEEK. MODEL AGREEMENT IS NOT REALLY ALL THAT BAD UNTIL WE GET TO
THURSDAY...WHEN THE GFS STARTS TO BECOME MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
PUSHING THIS LOW OUT INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC...WHICH ALLOWS IT TO
BECOME CONSIDERABLY MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GEM/ECMWF WITH THE
FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS TO END THE WORK WORK GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
FOR MODEL PREFERENCES...WENT WITH A FAIRLY EQUAL BLEND THROUGH
THURSDAY...LEANING MORE TOWARD THE LESS PROGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTION
FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THE LONG TERM WILL START OFF WITH A PICTURE PERFECT DAY ON
MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...SUNNY SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. MONDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
NORTHERN MN...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA AS WELL.
PRECIP POTENTIAL STILL DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT GREAT FOR THIS
FRONT...WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS KEEPING ANY MEANINGFUL
MOISTURE WELL OF TO OUR SOUTH...WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
LOOKING WEAK AS WELL. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE AND THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP IT GENERATES AND
CONTINUED THE TREND OF FAVORING A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THIS
FRONT...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS MENTIONED.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL FEATURE ANOTHER DRY RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO BLENDED FORECAST HERE
WAS TO LOWER DEWPOINTS SOME BOTH DAYS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MIXING
POTENTIAL. ALSO BLENDED IN SOME BIAS CORRECTED NUMBERS INTO THE
HIGHS BOTH DAYS TO BOOST THEM BY A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY...WITH
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED FOR WED/THU.
NEXT ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED COMES FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THE NEW ENGLAND
H5 LOW MENTIONED IN THE SECOND PARAGRAPH...THE GFS IS QUITE A BIT
FASTER WITH BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH THAN THE ECMWF. THIS SPREAD IN
THE FRONTS TIMING EXPLAINS THE NICE SMEARING OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONT DOES HAVE A COUPLE OF FACTORS
THAT CAN GIVE ONE A LITTLE BIT MORE HOPE FOR SEEING PRECIP WITH THIS
BOUNDARY AS OPPOSED TO THE ONE FOR MONDAY NIGHT. NUMBER ONE...THERE
WILL BE NO UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS INTERCEPTING MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTH. ALSO MAKING THE PRECIP POTENTIAL LOOK SLIGHTLY BETTER IS THAT
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE LOOKS BETTER ON FRIDAY AND THIS FRONT
ACTUALLY HAS SOME H85 FLOW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT OUT AHEAD OF IT.
STILL...THE AIRMASS IT WILL BE DISPLACING AGAIN LOOKS INCREDIBLY DRY
AND WITH INSTABILITY LACKING...ANYTHING WE DO SEE LOOKS PRETTY LIGHT
AT THIS POINT.
AS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS NEXT WEEK...HUMIDITIES EACH AFTERNOON
LOOK TO GET DOWN INTO THE 20S/30S. WINDS STILL LOOK LIGHT THOUGH
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT THURSDAY AND FRI WILL FEATURE STRONGER WINDS
AND IF THE MOISTURE RETURN ENDS UP BEING RATHER LACKING...WE COULD
HAVE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN. AT THIS POINT...THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE DAY THAT HAS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL TO GENERATE RED
FLAG CONDITIONS AS OUR SE WINDS WILL BE EMANATING FROM A VERY DRY
SFC RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES....WHILE FRIDAY AT THIS
POINT LOOKS TO FEATURE HIGHER DEWPS WITH THE PASSING FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
VFR CONDS THROUGHOUT THIS TAF SET. SKC CONDS WILL PREVAIL THRU
TMRW EVE. E TO NE WINDS WILL SETTLE CLOSE TO 5 KT OVERNIGHT THEN
INCRS TO THE 5-10 KT RANGE DURG THE DAY TMRW.
KMSP...NO SIGNIFICANT WX IMPACTS EXPECTED THIS TAF SET.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS NNE 5-10 KT.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KT.
WED...VFR. WIND N 5-10 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1258 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT THEN OFFSHORE SUNDAY...PULLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION DURING
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1255 AM SUNDAY...SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OFF OF THE COAST AS OF
0445Z AND NOW THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION UNTIL
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WILL LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND CALL
FOR PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER.
PATCHES OF FOG ARE ALSO EXPECTED BUT NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT. UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER EASTERN TN/KY AND
SOUTHWEST VA IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN OF EASTERN
NC AROUND 10Z SUNDAY. WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY MOST ZONES
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BASED ON LATEST HRRR RUN AND CONSENSUS OF
THE 00Z GFS/NAM MODELS. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF OF THE NC LATE
TONIGHT WILL REINFORCE THE HIGH PRES WEDGE EAST OF THE MTNS WITH
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPS MAY FALL A
FEW DEGS FROM CURRENT LEVELS WITH LOWS FROM AROUND 50 N TO UPR 50S
S EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...LOW PRES DEEPENING OFFSHORE WILL PULL COLD
FRONT THROUGH AREA FROM N BY EARLY AFTN...AND MODELS INDICATE
WDPSRD LIGHT QPF THREAT 12Z-18Z. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY MOST OF
AREA FOR MORNING. CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL HOLD TEMPS TO UPR 50S NRN
SECTIONS WHILE SRN SECTIONS MAY REACH UPR 60S BEFORE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NW SUN NIGHT INTO WED...WHILE SFC LOW PUSHES ENE OFF THE
NC COAST SUN NIGHT AND MON. PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY SUN
EVENING AS LOW PUSHES FURTHER OFF THE COAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 60S THROUGH THU...AND LOWS IN THE
LOW/MID 40S TO MID 50S. VERT STACKED LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE NE US
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...GRADUALLY
RETROGRADING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH MID-WEEK. PIECES
OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW
AND TROUGH MON AND TUE. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS MON AND TUE...THOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER GIVEN THE IMPULSES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT.
LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE MID TO LATE WEEK...AND BELOW
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONTINUES. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TUE...THEN MOVE UP THE SE COAST
WED INTO THU. ECMWF CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A MUCH STRONGER
LOW...BOMBING OUT OFF THE NC COAST. WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A MUCH
WEAKER LOW...KEEPING IT SUPPRESSED FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OF NC OFF
THE SE COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW TRENDS OF PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND WPC...WITH A WEAK LOW MOVING OFF THE COAST LATE WED INTO
THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CAP POPS AT 50 PERCENT WED AND THU
GIVEN THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY. ADDITIONAL IMPACTS COULD BE FELT
ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEEK...DEPENDENT ON EVENTUAL TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE LOW.
TEMPS GRADUALLY MODERATE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ASOF 1255 AM SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING
INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A STALLED FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND REINFORCE THE
HIGH PRES WEDGE PATTERN INLAND. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE IFR
RANGE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THEN LIFT TO MVFR UNTIL
AROUND 00Z WHEN CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPPROVE TO VFR. SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WELL TO THE WEST LATE TONIGHT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES 11-15Z SUNDAY MORNING
OTHERWISE EXPECTING ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LINGER SUN NIGHT
GRADUALLY IMPROVING BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PRED VFR MON THROUGH
TUE NIGHT. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WED AND THU...WITH PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR POSSIBLE AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE
REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ALONG STALLED BNDRY OVER FAR SOUTHERN
WATERS LATE THIS EVENING MAINTAINING A LIGHT TO MODERATE NE/E FLOW
NORTH OF THE BNDRY. THE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST EARLY SUNDAY AND
GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD N TO S OVER WATERS AS LOW
DEEPENS OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. USED MODEL BLEND TOWARD WEAKER GFS AND
ECMWF...BUT WILL POST SCA FOR NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 25 KT LIKELY IN AFTN...AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 6 FT
LATE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS 15-25KT AND ELEVATED SEAS
4-7FT WILL START OFF THE PERIOD SUN NIGHT. SURGE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING MON MORNING WITH SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO 3-5FT BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW SUN
NIGHT THROUGH MID- WEEK. GRADIENT TIGHTENS MON NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUE...AND MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING NWLY SURGE 15-25KT WITH
SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6FT ON THE OUTER WATERS. PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY...MAINLY NORTH OF OCRACOKE.
LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE MID TO LATE WEEK...AND BELOW
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONTINUES. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TUE...THEN MOVE UP THE SE COAST
WED INTO THU. INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WED AND THU. ELY
FLOW BY WED AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO 10-20KT WED NIGHT WITH SEAS
2-4FT. STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED THU WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6FT.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOWER THAN AVERAGE FOR WED AND THU...BUT SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DEVELOP WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES
DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW PRESSURE.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EDT
MONDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR AMZ150-156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JME/BTC/JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/JBM/CQD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1139 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
NO CHANGES TO 10 PM UPDATE PLANNED. UPDATE FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION ONLY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOWS. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE
DOING WELL WITH INHERITED MINIMUM TEMP FCST SO HAVE USED RUC FOR
GUIDANCE ON WIND AND HOURLY TEMPS. ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY MADE AT 7 PM
WORKED OUT WELL SO NO FURTHER CHANGES EXPECTED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
FORECAST UPDATE WILL ADDRESS MINOR SKY ISSUES...WITH EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA CLEARING OUT A BIT MORE RAPIDLY THAN PREV FCST INDICATED.
WITH MID LVL DECK WELL OFF TO WEST...WILL DECREASE SKY OVER ERN ND
THROUGH THE NIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE PERIOD.
CLOUDS HAVE MOVED MOSTLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER AS DRIER AIR HAS
BEEN COMING IN FROM THE EAST UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME CU REDEVELOPMENT IN THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT FOR
THE MOST PART THE MINNESOTA SIDE HAS BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA STILL SOCKED IN WITH STRATUS. THE RAP
925-850MB RH FIELD HAS BEEN DOING DECENT WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...AND IT HAS THE HIGHER RH VALUES SLOWLY MOVING WEST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS COMING IN THROUGH
WESTERN ND AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
THINK THE CLOUDS AND WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE 40S WHILE THE EAST WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES...DROPPING DOWN BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. THE DRY
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO COME IN AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO
OUR NORTHEAST. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ENTERING CENTRAL ND...BUT ALL HAVE THE PRECIP ALONG THAT BOUNDARY
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES EAST. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVE THE DRY
ENVIRONMENT AND NOT MUCH UPPER FORCING...SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT
UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
TODAY WITH HIGHER CLOUDS AND A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MASS. KEPT
READINGS IN THE 60S.
SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS
INTO SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WITH THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO
THE FAR WESTERN CWA. THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...BUT IT WILL BE FIGHTING AGAINST
CONTINUED DRY AIR COMING IN FROM THE SFC HIGH TO THE EAST.
INCLUDED SOME SHOWERS GETTING INTO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT THINK THAT THE BULK OF PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES OVER NORTH AMERICA
WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK SFC TROUGH AXIS INTO THE CWA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME GOOD Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE FOR
RISING MOTION. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS HIGH THROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AXIS...WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED. LEANED TOWARDS THE DRIER GFS/NAM RATHER THAN THE
WETTER INTERNATIONAL MODELS GIVEN THE TENDENCY LATELY FOR
OVERDOING RAIN. WE SHOULD DRY OUT BY TUESDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S IN MOST
OF THE CWA BUT THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES COULD STAY IN THE 50S
WITH RAIN COMING IN EARLIER. MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
REGION.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. GEM NOT SHOWING AS STRONG A RIDGE AS
THE OUTLIER...SO FAVORED AN ECMWF/GFS BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST.
THUS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ON THE WARMER SIDE...WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY REACHING CLOSE TO THE MID 70S. OTHERWISE...THE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP DRY CONDS IN THE
AERODROMES FOR THE VALLEY AND SITES IN MINNESOTA. A LINE OF
SHOWERS OVER CNTRL ND MAY GET INTO DVL AREA TOMORROW EVENING...BUT
DRY AIR MASS WILL HELP HOLD THOSE SHOWERS BACK. PUT A MENTION
(VCSH) IN FOR TOMORROW EVENING AS CONFIDENCE OF ON STATION PRECIP
IS TOO LOW THIS FAR OUT. CIGS LIKELY WILL BE VFR OR UPPER MVFR
RANGE TOMORROW EVENING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...SPEICHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1045 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION WITH A SFC RIDGE AXIS
JUST TO THE WEST. NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY, GETTING A LITTLE GUSTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LITTLE BIT
OF MIXING. MODELS HINTING AT A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE BTWN
5000-8000 FT OR SO. CU RULE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG UNDER THE
RIDGE AND MIXING MAY INHIBIT A LOT OF CU...BUT STILL POSSIBLE TO
SEE A FEW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE QUIET, AND NO
SIGNIFICANT UPDATES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WORK THEIR WAY SOUTH THROUGH
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL IL EARLY THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR
ADVECTS FROM THE NORTHEAST. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER
IN SOUTHEAST IL FROM DAYBREAK UNTIL MID-MORNING. PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MIXING IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING CLOSE TO 20 MPH
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
BY AFTERNOON...HIGHS TODAY WILL MAINLY BE AROUND 60 DEGREES DUE
TO THE DEEP LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER ON TAP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MUCH OF THE
WEEK. PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW TO KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY UNTIL WE
FINALLY GET NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF CLOSING OFF OVER WESTERN
ARIZONA...AND THIS WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALL OF THE MODELS KEEP THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE TRACKING ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER...AND AS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED, A SMALL
CLOSED LOW WILL PINCH OFF IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WAVE. THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE THIS SMALL LOW DROPPING ACROSS
MINNESOTA AND IOWA TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE TAIL END OF THE NAM
BRINGS THIS INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND THE GFS PROGRESSES THE WAVE
WELL EAST BEFORE THE LOW CAN FORM. NET RESULT OF ALL OF THIS IS FOR
DRY CONDITIONS MID WEEK.
AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEK...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO MANITOBA...WHILE GENERAL BROAD TROUGHING
CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THIS RIDGE FLATTENS BY FRIDAY AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM BECOMES MORE ACTIVE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE
SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY EVENING...AS THE GFS BRINGS A STRONGER
UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF DOES HINT AT POTENTIAL MCS
ACTIVITY AS WELL. WITH THE MORE DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS...HAVE KEPT THE
LATE WEEKEND FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
THE BACK EDGE OF MVFR/IFR CLOUDS IS JUST SOUTH OF I-70 AS OF
1130Z. A DEEP NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AIR INTO CENTRAL IL TODAY AND PUSH THE LOW
CLOUDS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION. HAVE SEEN MVFR VISIBILITY
JUST DEVELOP IN EAST CENTRAL IL...SO WILL CONTINUE THIS IN THE TAF
FOR KCMI UNTIL 14Z WHEN INCREASING WIND SPEEDS WILL MIX OUT THE
LIGHT FOG.
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
RESULT IN A TREND TOWARD SOMEWHAT GUSTY WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT
RANGE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN ALL OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN IL. THE RAP AND NAM MODELS BOTH INDICATE THAT THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CUMULUS LATER
THIS MORNING AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE LOWER LEVELS WILL GO THROUGH THE TYPICAL EARLY EVENING
DECOUPLING WITH A CLEAR SKY AND VERY LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT. AM NOT
EXPECTING ANY FOG AT THIS POINT SINCE THE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP DRY OUT THE LOWEST LAYERS AND
SURFACE.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
638 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WORK THEIR WAY SOUTH THROUGH
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL IL EARLY THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR
ADVECTS FROM THE NORTHEAST. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER
IN SOUTHEAST IL FROM DAYBREAK UNTIL MID-MORNING. PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MIXING IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING CLOSE TO 20 MPH
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
BY AFTERNOON...HIGHS TODAY WILL MAINLY BE AROUND 60 DEGREES DUE
TO THE DEEP LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER ON TAP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MUCH OF THE
WEEK. PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW TO KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY UNTIL WE
FINALLY GET NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF CLOSING OFF OVER WESTERN
ARIZONA...AND THIS WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALL OF THE MODELS KEEP THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE TRACKING ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER...AND AS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED, A SMALL
CLOSED LOW WILL PINCH OFF IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WAVE. THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE THIS SMALL LOW DROPPING ACROSS
MINNESOTA AND IOWA TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE TAIL END OF THE NAM
BRINGS THIS INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND THE GFS PROGRESSES THE WAVE
WELL EAST BEFORE THE LOW CAN FORM. NET RESULT OF ALL OF THIS IS FOR
DRY CONDITIONS MID WEEK.
AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEK...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO MANITOBA...WHILE GENERAL BROAD TROUGHING
CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THIS RIDGE FLATTENS BY FRIDAY AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM BECOMES MORE ACTIVE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE
SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY EVENING...AS THE GFS BRINGS A STRONGER
UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF DOES HINT AT POTENTIAL MCS
ACTIVITY AS WELL. WITH THE MORE DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS...HAVE KEPT THE
LATE WEEKEND FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
THE BACK EDGE OF MVFR/IFR CLOUDS IS JUST SOUTH OF I-70 AS OF
1130Z. A DEEP NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AIR INTO CENTRAL IL TODAY AND PUSH THE LOW
CLOUDS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION. HAVE SEEN MVFR VISIBILITY
JUST DEVELOP IN EAST CENTRAL IL...SO WILL CONTINUE THIS IN THE TAF
FOR KCMI UNTIL 14Z WHEN INCREASING WIND SPEEDS WILL MIX OUT THE
LIGHT FOG.
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
RESULT IN A TREND TOWARD SOMEWHAT GUSTY WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT
RANGE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN ALL OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN IL. THE RAP AND NAM MODELS BOTH INDICATE THAT THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CUMULUS LATER
THIS MORNING AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE LOWER LEVELS WILL GO THROUGH THE TYPICAL EARLY EVENING
DECOUPLING WITH A CLEAR SKY AND VERY LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT. AM NOT
EXPECTING ANY FOG AT THIS POINT SINCE THE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP DRY OUT THE LOWEST LAYERS AND
SURFACE.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
948 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
UPDATE ISSUED TO DECREASE PRECIP COVERAGE THRU REST OF MORNING HRS
BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE MENTION OF
HIGHER POPS/THUNDER FROM THE ENTIRE CWA FORECAST REST OF MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MORNING HRS HERE IN THE CWA HAVE
BEEN PERSISTENT FOG AND MAINLY DRIZZLE. MOST APPRECIABLE RETURNS
HAVE BEEN FOCUSED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE CWA HAVE AIDED IN UPSLOPE CONDITIONS
KEEPING PRECIP FOCUSED WEST OF OUR CWA BORDERS. AM EXPECTING AN
INCREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THOUGH AS UPPER LOW PIVOTS OUT
ONTO THE PLAINS. HAVE SHOWN INCREASING POPS TOWARDS THAT TIMEFRAME
AS WELL AS A FEW HOURS WHERE THUNDER IS POSSIBLE WITH INCREASED
INSTABILITY WITH LOW PROXIMITY. REST OF FORECAST FOR TEMPS/WINDS
REMAIN ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE GRADIENT OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INTO MONDAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY/MONDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING
THE FLOW HAS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF COUNTRY WITH EXPECTED SOUTHERN CUTOFF LOW NOW
STARTING TO MOVE INTO ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO. NATURE OF FLOW WHICH IN
SOME RESPECTS IS RETROGRESSING A LITTLE WOULD INDICATE THE
PATTERN IS GOING TO BE SLOW TO CHANGE. COLD FRONT HAS MOVED
THROUGH WITH UPSLOPE WINDS AND STRATUS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS HANDLED THIS WELL THE GFS THE WORST AND TOO
STRONG. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS WERE HAVING A LITTLE TROUBLE WITH THE
DEVELOPING WESTERN TROUGH. THEY TENDED TO BE TOO DEEP WITH THE NAM
THE WORST. OUTSIDE OF THIS THE NAM WAS NOT DOING TOO BAD. OVERALL
THE GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND UKMET. THE
CANADIAN WERE DOING THE WORST. MODELS HAD SURFACE LOW TO OUR
SOUTHWEST TOO FAR NORTH. THE RUC AND ECMWF WERE DOING THE BEST. THE
MODELS WERE DOING WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH THE
GFS...CANADIAN...SREF AND NAM DOING THE BEST.
TODAY/TONIGHT...MAJORITY OF CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING STAYED
MOSTLY TO THE WEST. UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS TO THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE WEST NOT PAINTING/SUPPORTING A WET FORECAST WITH A
VERY DEEP DRY LAYER AND WHAT MOISTURE THERE IS AT 700 MB AT ITS
LOWEST. IT LOOKS LIKE A LOT OF DRY AIR GETS PULLED INTO THE AREA
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
SUPPORTS A RATHER FAR SOUTH SOLUTION OF THE EVENTUAL UPPER LOW
WITH THE LARGEST HEIGHT FALLS OVER ARIZONA.
NEW MODEL SUITE SUPPORTS WHAT THE ANALYSIS IS SHOWING. MAIN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION HAS STAYED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA ALL
NIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND
FOG IN THE SATURATED LOW LEVELS. DYNAMICS TO OUR WEST BEGINS TO
AFFECT MOST OF THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY BEFORE SOME DRYING ALOFT OCCUR AS
THE LIFT MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA
AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...SHOULD HAVE A WIDE VARIETY OF WEATHER
THIS MORNING.
AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD
PERSIST DURING THE MORNING. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT WITH ELEVATED CAPE AND FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES IN PLACE.
WILL BE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE
DAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE FAR WEST AND
SOUTHWEST WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DURING THIS
TIME. CLOUD COVER SHOULD STAY THICK MOST OF THE DAY WITH MAYBE
SOME CLEARING IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION AS A LITTLE DRIER AIR MOVES
IN TO THERE. KEPT THE COOLER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE WITH COOLEST
READINGS IN THE FAR WEST WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY NEED NOT GET OUT
OF THE 40S.
SOUTHERN CUTOFF LOW GETS ORGANIZED AND IN A DECENT POSITION TO GIVE
THE AREA SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST THIRD TO HALF. THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO OCCUR FROM EARLY EVENING TO NEAR
09Z AS THE BEST/DEEPEST MOISTURE GETS IN PLACE. AFTER THAT THE
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION STARTS ITS GRADUAL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ITS SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST AS THE EXITING
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY. ONCE AGAIN THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WILL
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION. CLEARING WILL ALSO
BEGIN WITH MOST OF THE NORTH HALF GETTING A LOT OF SUNSHINE BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY. COULD BE QUITE A GRADIENT WITH THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH THE NORTH THE WARMEST AS IT SEES THE MOST SUN.
LINGERING SPOTTY PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY LATE IN THE EVENING.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST IT CLEARS...TEMPERATURES COULD GET QUITE
CHILLY WITH A VERY LIGHT WIND FIELD IN PLACE.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AND NORTHERLY FLOW MOVE INTO
THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DECENT AMOUNT
OF SUN. ONE THING THAT COULD SPOIL THAT WILL BE A LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT THAT MOVES IN AND SPREADS SOME CLOUDS INTO THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA. ECMWF IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT QPF.
HOWEVER...THERE IS NO INSTABILITY AND A RATHER DEEP DRY LAYER. SO
IT SHOULD STAY DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM DUE TO SUNSHINE BUT
WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE UNFAVORABLE SURFACE WIND FIELD.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE RIDGE PUSHES
FURTHER EAST. PRECIP CHANCES MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE PAC NW TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES AND SWRLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP IS KEPT THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHORTWAVES POSSIBLY
GENERATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S. READINGS IN THE LOW 80S ARE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
FOR KGLD...LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AS A RESULT...LIFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
SITE THROUGH THE MORNING. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE...LIGHT
RAIN OR FOG WILL PREVAIL ALMOST THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
FOR KMCK...LOW LEVEL AIR MASS HERE WILL DRY WITH TIME. LIFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL MID AFTERNOON WHEN MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE UNTIL 06Z. AT THAT
TIME...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
732 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 732 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
UPDATE ISSUED TO ACCT FOR LATEST OBS TREND. CURRENTLY...THE ENTIRE
TRI STATE REGION REMAINS UNDER A THICK VEIL OF LOW CLOUD...WITH
TEMPS IN THE MID 40S. AREAS OF FOG PERSIST ALONG WITH DRIZZLE...SO
PLAN ON KEEPING IN FORECAST FOR NOW AND WILL REVISIT FOR NEXT ESTF
UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE GRADIENT OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INTO MONDAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY/MONDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING
THE FLOW HAS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF COUNTRY WITH EXPECTED SOUTHERN CUTOFF LOW NOW
STARTING TO MOVE INTO ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO. NATURE OF FLOW WHICH IN
SOME RESPECTS IS RETROGRESSING A LITTLE WOULD INDICATE THE
PATTERN IS GOING TO BE SLOW TO CHANGE. COLD FRONT HAS MOVED
THROUGH WITH UPSLOPE WINDS AND STRATUS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS HANDLED THIS WELL THE GFS THE WORST AND TOO
STRONG. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS WERE HAVING A LITTLE TROUBLE WITH THE
DEVELOPING WESTERN TROUGH. THEY TENDED TO BE TOO DEEP WITH THE NAM
THE WORST. OUTSIDE OF THIS THE NAM WAS NOT DOING TOO BAD. OVERALL
THE GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND UKMET. THE
CANADIAN WERE DOING THE WORST. MODELS HAD SURFACE LOW TO OUR
SOUTHWEST TOO FAR NORTH. THE RUC AND ECMWF WERE DOING THE BEST. THE
MODELS WERE DOING WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH THE
GFS...CANADIAN...SREF AND NAM DOING THE BEST.
TODAY/TONIGHT...MAJORITY OF CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING STAYED
MOSTLY TO THE WEST. UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS TO THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE WEST NOT PAINTING/SUPPORTING A WET FORECAST WITH A
VERY DEEP DRY LAYER AND WHAT MOISTURE THERE IS AT 700 MB AT ITS
LOWEST. IT LOOKS LIKE A LOT OF DRY AIR GETS PULLED INTO THE AREA
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
SUPPORTS A RATHER FAR SOUTH SOLUTION OF THE EVENTUAL UPPER LOW
WITH THE LARGEST HEIGHT FALLS OVER ARIZONA.
NEW MODEL SUITE SUPPORTS WHAT THE ANALYSIS IS SHOWING. MAIN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION HAS STAYED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA ALL
NIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND
FOG IN THE SATURATED LOW LEVELS. DYNAMICS TO OUR WEST BEGINS TO
AFFECT MOST OF THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY BEFORE SOME DRYING ALOFT OCCUR AS
THE LIFT MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA
AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...SHOULD HAVE A WIDE VARIETY OF WEATHER
THIS MORNING.
AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD
PERSIST DURING THE MORNING. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT WITH ELEVATED CAPE AND FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES IN PLACE.
WILL BE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE
DAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE FAR WEST AND
SOUTHWEST WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DURING THIS
TIME. CLOUD COVER SHOULD STAY THICK MOST OF THE DAY WITH MAYBE
SOME CLEARING IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION AS A LITTLE DRIER AIR MOVES
IN TO THERE. KEPT THE COOLER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE WITH COOLEST
READINGS IN THE FAR WEST WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY NEED NOT GET OUT
OF THE 40S.
SOUTHERN CUTOFF LOW GETS ORGANIZED AND IN A DECENT POSITION TO GIVE
THE AREA SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST THIRD TO HALF. THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO OCCUR FROM EARLY EVENING TO NEAR
09Z AS THE BEST/DEEPEST MOISTURE GETS IN PLACE. AFTER THAT THE
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION STARTS ITS GRADUAL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ITS SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST AS THE EXITING
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY. ONCE AGAIN THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WILL
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION. CLEARING WILL ALSO
BEGIN WITH MOST OF THE NORTH HALF GETTING A LOT OF SUNSHINE BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY. COULD BE QUITE A GRADIENT WITH THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH THE NORTH THE WARMEST AS IT SEES THE MOST SUN.
LINGERING SPOTTY PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY LATE IN THE EVENING.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST IT CLEARS...TEMPERATURES COULD GET QUITE
CHILLY WITH A VERY LIGHT WIND FIELD IN PLACE.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AND NORTHERLY FLOW MOVE INTO
THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DECENT AMOUNT
OF SUN. ONE THING THAT COULD SPOIL THAT WILL BE A LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT THAT MOVES IN AND SPREADS SOME CLOUDS INTO THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA. ECMWF IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT QPF.
HOWEVER...THERE IS NO INSTABILITY AND A RATHER DEEP DRY LAYER. SO
IT SHOULD STAY DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM DUE TO SUNSHINE BUT
WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE UNFAVORABLE SURFACE WIND FIELD.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE RIDGE PUSHES
FURTHER EAST. PRECIP CHANCES MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE PAC NW TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES AND SWRLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP IS KEPT THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHORTWAVES POSSIBLY
GENERATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S. READINGS IN THE LOW 80S ARE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
FOR KGLD...LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AS A RESULT...LIFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
SITE THROUGH THE MORNING. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE...LIGHT
RAIN OR FOG WILL PREVAIL ALMOST THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
FOR KMCK...LOW LEVEL AIR MASS HERE WILL DRY WITH TIME. LIFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL MID AFTERNOON WHEN MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE UNTIL 06Z. AT THAT
TIME...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
556 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE GRADIENT OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INTO MONDAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY/MONDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING
THE FLOW HAS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF COUNTRY WITH EXPECTED SOUTHERN CUTOFF LOW NOW
STARTING TO MOVE INTO ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO. NATURE OF FLOW WHICH IN
SOME RESPECTS IS RETROGRESSING A LITTLE WOULD INDICATE THE
PATTERN IS GOING TO BE SLOW TO CHANGE. COLD FRONT HAS MOVED
THROUGH WITH UPSLOPE WINDS AND STRATUS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS HANDLED THIS WELL THE GFS THE WORST AND TOO
STRONG. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS WERE HAVING A LITTLE TROUBLE WITH THE
DEVELOPING WESTERN TROUGH. THEY TENDED TO BE TOO DEEP WITH THE NAM
THE WORST. OUTSIDE OF THIS THE NAM WAS NOT DOING TOO BAD. OVERALL
THE GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND UKMET. THE
CANADIAN WERE DOING THE WORST. MODELS HAD SURFACE LOW TO OUR
SOUTHWEST TOO FAR NORTH. THE RUC AND ECMWF WERE DOING THE BEST. THE
MODELS WERE DOING WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH THE
GFS...CANADIAN...SREF AND NAM DOING THE BEST.
TODAY/TONIGHT...MAJORITY OF CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING STAYED
MOSTLY TO THE WEST. UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS TO THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE WEST NOT PAINTING/SUPPORTING A WET FORECAST WITH A
VERY DEEP DRY LAYER AND WHAT MOISTURE THERE IS AT 700 MB AT ITS
LOWEST. IT LOOKS LIKE A LOT OF DRY AIR GETS PULLED INTO THE AREA
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
SUPPORTS A RATHER FAR SOUTH SOLUTION OF THE EVENTUAL UPPER LOW
WITH THE LARGEST HEIGHT FALLS OVER ARIZONA.
NEW MODEL SUITE SUPPORTS WHAT THE ANALYSIS IS SHOWING. MAIN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION HAS STAYED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA ALL
NIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND
FOG IN THE SATURATED LOW LEVELS. DYNAMICS TO OUR WEST BEGINS TO
AFFECT MOST OF THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY BEFORE SOME DRYING ALOFT OCCUR AS
THE LIFT MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA
AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...SHOULD HAVE A WIDE VARIETY OF WEATHER
THIS MORNING.
AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD
PERSIST DURING THE MORNING. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT WITH ELEVATED CAPE AND FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES IN PLACE.
WILL BE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE
DAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE FAR WEST AND
SOUTHWEST WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DURING THIS
TIME. CLOUD COVER SHOULD STAY THICK MOST OF THE DAY WITH MAYBE
SOME CLEARING IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION AS A LITTLE DRIER AIR MOVES
IN TO THERE. KEPT THE COOLER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE WITH COOLEST
READINGS IN THE FAR WEST WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY NEED NOT GET OUT
OF THE 40S.
SOUTHERN CUTOFF LOW GETS ORGANIZED AND IN A DECENT POSITION TO GIVE
THE AREA SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST THIRD TO HALF. THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO OCCUR FROM EARLY EVENING TO NEAR
09Z AS THE BEST/DEEPEST MOISTURE GETS IN PLACE. AFTER THAT THE
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION STARTS ITS GRADUAL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ITS SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST AS THE EXITING
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY. ONCE AGAIN THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WILL
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION. CLEARING WILL ALSO
BEGIN WITH MOST OF THE NORTH HALF GETTING A LOT OF SUNSHINE BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY. COULD BE QUITE A GRADIENT WITH THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH THE NORTH THE WARMEST AS IT SEES THE MOST SUN.
LINGERING SPOTTY PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY LATE IN THE EVENING.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST IT CLEARS...TEMPERATURES COULD GET QUITE
CHILLY WITH A VERY LIGHT WIND FIELD IN PLACE.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AND NORTHERLY FLOW MOVE INTO
THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DECENT AMOUNT
OF SUN. ONE THING THAT COULD SPOIL THAT WILL BE A LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT THAT MOVES IN AND SPREADS SOME CLOUDS INTO THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA. ECMWF IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT QPF.
HOWEVER...THERE IS NO INSTABILITY AND A RATHER DEEP DRY LAYER. SO
IT SHOULD STAY DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM DUE TO SUNSHINE BUT
WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE UNFAVORABLE SURFACE WIND FIELD.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE RIDGE PUSHES
FURTHER EAST. PRECIP CHANCES MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE PAC NW TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES AND SWRLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP IS KEPT THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHORTWAVES POSSIBLY
GENERATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S. READINGS IN THE LOW 80S ARE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
FOR KGLD...LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AS A RESULT...LIFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
SITE THROUGH THE MORNING. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE...LIGHT
RAIN OR FOG WILL PREVAIL ALMOST THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
FOR KMCK...LOW LEVEL AIR MASS HERE WILL DRY WITH TIME. LIFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL MID AFTERNOON WHEN MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE UNTIL 06Z. AT THAT
TIME...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
420 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE GRADIENT OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INTO MONDAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY/MONDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING
THE FLOW HAS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF COUNTRY WITH EXPECTED SOUTHERN CUTOFF LOW NOW
STARTING TO MOVE INTO ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO. NATURE OF FLOW WHICH IN
SOME RESPECTS IS RETROGRESSING A LITTLE WOULD INDICATE THE
PATTERN IS GOING TO BE SLOW TO CHANGE. COLD FRONT HAS MOVED
THROUGH WITH UPSLOPE WINDS AND STRATUS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS HANDLED THIS WELL THE GFS THE WORST AND TOO
STRONG. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS WERE HAVING A LITTLE TROUBLE WITH THE
DEVELOPING WESTERN TROUGH. THEY TENDED TO BE TOO DEEP WITH THE NAM
THE WORST. OUTSIDE OF THIS THE NAM WAS NOT DOING TOO BAD. OVERALL
THE GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND UKMET. THE
CANADIAN WERE DOING THE WORST. MODELS HAD SURFACE LOW TO OUR
SOUTHWEST TOO FAR NORTH. THE RUC AND ECMWF WERE DOING THE BEST. THE
MODELS WERE DOING WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH THE
GFS...CANADIAN...SREF AND NAM DOING THE BEST.
TODAY/TONIGHT...MAJORITY OF CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING STAYED
MOSTLY TO THE WEST. UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS TO THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE WEST NOT PAINTING/SUPPORTING A WET FORECAST WITH A
VERY DEEP DRY LAYER AND WHAT MOISTURE THERE IS AT 700 MB AT ITS
LOWEST. IT LOOKS LIKE A LOT OF DRY AIR GETS PULLED INTO THE AREA
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
SUPPORTS A RATHER FAR SOUTH SOLUTION OF THE EVENTUAL UPPER LOW
WITH THE LARGEST HEIGHT FALLS OVER ARIZONA.
NEW MODEL SUITE SUPPORTS WHAT THE ANALYSIS IS SHOWING. MAIN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION HAS STAYED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA ALL
NIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND
FOG IN THE SATURATED LOW LEVELS. DYNAMICS TO OUR WEST BEGINS TO
AFFECT MOST OF THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY BEFORE SOME DRYING ALOFT OCCUR AS
THE LIFT MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA
AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...SHOULD HAVE A WIDE VARIETY OF WEATHER
THIS MORNING.
AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD
PERSIST DURING THE MORNING. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT WITH ELEVATED CAPE AND FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES IN PLACE.
WILL BE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE
DAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE FAR WEST AND
SOUTHWEST WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DURING THIS
TIME. CLOUD COVER SHOULD STAY THICK MOST OF THE DAY WITH MAYBE
SOME CLEARING IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION AS A LITTLE DRIER AIR MOVES
IN TO THERE. KEPT THE COOLER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE WITH COOLEST
READINGS IN THE FAR WEST WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY NEED NOT GET OUT
OF THE 40S.
SOUTHERN CUTOFF LOW GETS ORGANIZED AND IN A DECENT POSITION TO GIVE
THE AREA SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST THIRD TO HALF. THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO OCCUR FROM EARLY EVENING TO NEAR
09Z AS THE BEST/DEEPEST MOISTURE GETS IN PLACE. AFTER THAT THE
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION STARTS ITS GRADUAL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ITS SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST AS THE EXITING
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY. ONCE AGAIN THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WILL
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION. CLEARING WILL ALSO
BEGIN WITH MOST OF THE NORTH HALF GETTING A LOT OF SUNSHINE BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY. COULD BE QUITE A GRADIENT WITH THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH THE NORTH THE WARMEST AS IT SEES THE MOST SUN.
LINGERING SPOTTY PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY LATE IN THE EVENING.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST IT CLEARS...TEMPERATURES COULD GET QUITE
CHILLY WITH A VERY LIGHT WIND FIELD IN PLACE.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AND NORTHERLY FLOW MOVE INTO
THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DECENT AMOUNT
OF SUN. ONE THING THAT COULD SPOIL THAT WILL BE A LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT THAT MOVES IN AND SPREADS SOME CLOUDS INTO THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA. ECMWF IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT QPF.
HOWEVER...THERE IS NO INSTABILITY AND A RATHER DEEP DRY LAYER. SO
IT SHOULD STAY DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM DUE TO SUNSHINE BUT
WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE UNFAVORABLE SURFACE WIND FIELD.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE RIDGE PUSHES
FURTHER EAST. PRECIP CHANCES MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE PAC NW TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES AND SWRLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP IS KEPT THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHORTWAVES POSSIBLY
GENERATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S. READINGS IN THE LOW 80S ARE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015
KGLD...IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE EAST GUSTING 15 TO 20KTS
AT TIMES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO BE IN
THE VICINITY OR OVER THE TERMINAL FROM 08Z-20Z AS VARIOUS WEATHER
DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
KMCK...IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 19Z WITH
EAST WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUSTING 15-20KTS. FROM 20Z-01Z CIGS
IMPROVE SLIGHTLY TO MVFR CATEGORY WITH CONTINUED EAST WIND GUSTING
TO 20KTS. AFTER 02Z CIGS LOOK TO RISE JUST ABOVE MVFR CATEGORY
WITH WINDS VERY SLOWLY DECREASING TOWARD 10KTS...ESPECIALLY AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
711 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO SRN HUDSON BAY. TO THE SE...A MID LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH ITS BROAD CIRCULATION
EXTENDING BACK TO THE UPPER LAKES. TWO SHORTWAVES OF NOTE ARE
SWINGING W IN THE MID LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION ACROSS SE CANADA. THE
FIRST IS S OF JAMES BAY AND THE SECOND IS N OF MAINE. AT THE SFC...
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS SUPPORTING HIGH PRES RIDGING S FROM HUDSON
BAY INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UNDER DRY AIR MASS PER 00Z
REGIONAL SOUNDINGS...CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FCST
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. TO THE NE...FIRST SHORTWAVE S OF JAMES IS
HELPING TO SPREAD SCT-BKN CLOUDS TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE S OF JAMES BAY WILL ROTATE INTO NRN LWR MI THIS
AFTN/EVENING...SPREADING SOME CLOUDINESS INTO THE ERN FCST AREA
TODAY. TRENDS IN THE MODELS SHOW A BACKING OFF ON THE POTENTIAL
CLOUD COVER WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON OVERNIGHT SATELLITE
IMAGERY. FCST THUS REFLECTS A MORE OPTIMISTIC SKY CONDITION FOR
CNTRL UPPER MI TODAY. MAY STILL SEE SOME PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS OVER THE ERN FCST AREA THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY LATE. AS
FOR TEMPS...RATHER BRISK GRADIENT FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL HOLD
TEMPS TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. MOST LAKESIDE
LOCATIONS FROM THE KEWEENAW EASTWARD WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 30S.
WELL INLAND...NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS AND PROJECTED MIXING HEIGHTS
SUGGEST HIGH TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 50F. THERE MAY BE SOME LWR
50S TOWARD THE MI/WI BORDER FROM MENOMINEE COUNTY TO IRON COUNTY.
TONIGHT...SECOND SHORTWAVE NOW N OF MAINE WILL FOLLOW THE SAME TRACK
AS THE FIRST AND SHOULD REACH NRN LWR MI LATE TONIGHT. MODELS ARE
AGGRESSIVE IN SWINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO UPPER MI TONIGHT WITH THIS
FEATURE. OF PARTICULAR NOTE IS THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THE NAM/GFS
SHOW. LOOKING TO THE NE...LOW CIGS ARE NOTED IN AND AROUND JAMES BAY
AND EASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH THIS MOISTURE PUSHING SW INTO
THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT WHEN DAYTIME HEATING IS ABSENT TO HELP
LIFT OR MIX MOISTURE OUT...IT LOOKS FAIRLY LIKELY THAT LOW CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP/EXPAND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY LATE...OVER AT LEAST THE
NCNTRL AND E...AIDED BY UPSLOPE FLOW. NAM FCST SOUNDINGS EVEN
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME -DZ/-FZDZ WHERE STRONGEST UPSLOPE
OCCURS. WILL BE SOMETHING TO TAKE A LOOK AT AGAIN IN LATER MODEL
RUNS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH SUN NIGHT WILL LEAD TO CLOUD COVER EARLY
MON OVER ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL AND ERN CWA. THE CLOUD COVER WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH AS THE SFC RIDGE MOVES BACK IN FROM THE W AS WELL AS
THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER RIDGE. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME
LIGHT DRIZZLE IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF NCENTRAL UPPER MI...BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. INTERIOR W SHOULD SEE HIGHS
APPROACH 60F ON MON...WHILE LAKESHORE AND ERN AREAS ARE QUITE A BIT
COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE UPPER 40S.
A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE TUE
EVENING AND AGAIN ON WED...WITH MODELS CURRENTLY SHOWING THE
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ON WED. MODELS HAVE NOT SHOWN GOOD CONTINUITY
WITH THESE FEATURES...SO CONFIDENCE IN EXACT DETAILS IS LOW.
HOWEVER...MODEL DO GENERALLY AGREE THAT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED
ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP FROM OCCURING. TUE WILL BE
WARMER THAN MON WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S AS THE AIRMASS WILL BE
WARMER AND THE SHORTWAVE/CLOUD COVER DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER IN
THE DAY. WED COULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT COOLER AIRMASS DEPENDING ON
DETAILS WITH THE SHORTWAVE...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE
40S TO MID 50S.
UPPER RIDGING REPLACES THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY THU INTO FRI. MODELS
HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH CONTINUITY IN THE STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE...LIMITED CONFIDENCE SOME. HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE 50S TO
MID 60S...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S ON
FRI. MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND DISCONTINUITY CERTAINLY CONTINUE AND
INCREASE ON SAT AS MODELS VARY VASTLY IN THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT
OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER CENTRAL CANADA. MODELS SHOW SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE CWA WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH LATE
FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WHICH COULD PRODUCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA.
WILL CONTINUE SHOWING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.
ADDITIONAL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS /ALSO TIED TO UNCERTAINTIES
WITH THE CENTRAL CANADA ENERGY/ WITH TEMPS ON SAT. THE 12Z/25 ECMWF
BRINGS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE TO JUST W OF THE CWA BY 00Z SUN
WHILE THE 00Z/26 GFS HAS AN UPPER TROUGH WHERE THE ECMWF HAS THE
RIDGE. AIRMASS WILL BE A LOT WARMER UNDER THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH
850MB TEMPS OF 12C BY 00Z SUN WHILE THE GFS IS AT 8C. WHILE
POTENTIAL FOR MUCH WARMER TEMPS EXISTS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH A CONSENSUS APPROACH WITH HIGHS INT HE 60S AND 70S
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 710 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
FCST CHALLENGE DURING THIS FCST PERIOD WILL BE THE SOUTHWESTWARD
PUSH OF MOISTURE/LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE CURRENTLY NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
INITIALLY TODAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS...EXPECT DAYTIME HEATING TO
HELP MIX OUT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING TOWARD THE AREA...
RESULTING IN PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
TONIGHT...LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MAKE A STRONG PUSH INTO THE AREA. KSAW
IS MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED. AIDED BY UPSLOPE FLOW...EXPECT CIGS
TO FALL TO IFR THERE DURING THE OVERNIGHT. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
THAT CIGS COULD EVEN FALL TO LIFR. KCMX SHOULD SEE LOW MVFR CIGS...
POSSIBLY IFR...DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. FARTHEST W FROM THE MOISTURE
SURGE...KIWD MAY STAY VFR TONIGHT...BUT AN IFR CIG IS A POSSIBILITY
LATE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING S THRU WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY THRU
MON...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...MOSTLY UNDER
15KT. OVER THE E...WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 20-25KT. THE
RIDGE WILL WEAKEN TUE AND GIVE WAY TO LOW PRES TROF PASSAGE TUE
NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...ANOTHER HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE S FROM HUDSON BAY
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WED/THU. WITH PRES GRADIENT ON THE WEAK
SIDE...WINDS TUE THRU THU SHOULD BE UNDER 15KT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME STRONGER WINDS ON WED AS THE HIGH BEGINS
RIDGING S INTO THE UPPER LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
630 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
A VERY PLEASANT DAY IS AHEAD WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING
STEADY FROM WESTERN ONTARIO THROUGH MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. THE
SKY WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TODAY AS WELL AS TONIGHT ALONG WITH A
LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SIMILAR
THOSE ON SATURDAY WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FORECAST...WHICH IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE SEASONAL NORMAL. THE FORECAST HIGHS TODAY LINE
UP WELL WITH MIX-DOWN FROM THE NAM AT 825MB ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
SUPER.
THE REAL CHALLENGE TODAY IS HOW LOW WILL DEW POINTS DROP...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL MN...AND THE CORRESPONDING AFTERNOON
MINIMUM HUMIDITY. THE LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW BROUGHT DEW POINTS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS INTO NORTHEAST MN SATURDAY
EVENING. DEW POINTS NEAR 20 DEGREES ARE NOW PREVALENT ACROSS
CENTRAL MN EARLY THIS MORNING. THE NAM AND RAP HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE SITUATION AND LOWER DEW POINTS TO NEAR 15 DEGREES ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON WITH AROUND 20 HERE IN THE TWIN
CITIES AND WEST CENTRAL WI. THIS RESULTS IN NEAR 15 PERCENT
MINIMUM HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL MN WITH 20
PERCENT HERE IN THE CITIES AND WEST CENTRAL WI. SOUTHERN AREAS OF
MN BOTTOM OUT AROUND 25 PERCENT. FORTUNATELY...THE NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON
KEEPING THE FIRE THREAT MAINLY IN THE LIMITED RANGE WITH ELEVATED
INDICATED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
MILD TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TAP FOR NEXT WEEK...WITH TWO
MOISTURE STARVED FRONTS TRAVERSING THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
THE TROUBLE MAKER FOR MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED CONTINUES
TO BE THE EVOLUTION OF THE DEEP CLOSED H5 LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND NEXT
WEEK. MODEL AGREEMENT IS NOT REALLY ALL THAT BAD UNTIL WE GET TO
THURSDAY...WHEN THE GFS STARTS TO BECOME MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
PUSHING THIS LOW OUT INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC...WHICH ALLOWS IT TO
BECOME CONSIDERABLY MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GEM/ECMWF WITH THE
FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS TO END THE WORK WORK GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
FOR MODEL PREFERENCES...WENT WITH A FAIRLY EQUAL BLEND THROUGH
THURSDAY...LEANING MORE TOWARD THE LESS PROGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTION
FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THE LONG TERM WILL START OFF WITH A PICTURE PERFECT DAY ON
MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...SUNNY SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. MONDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
NORTHERN MN...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA AS WELL.
PRECIP POTENTIAL STILL DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT GREAT FOR THIS
FRONT...WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS KEEPING ANY MEANINGFUL
MOISTURE WELL OF TO OUR SOUTH...WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
LOOKING WEAK AS WELL. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE AND THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP IT GENERATES AND
CONTINUED THE TREND OF FAVORING A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THIS
FRONT...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS MENTIONED.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL FEATURE ANOTHER DRY RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO BLENDED FORECAST HERE
WAS TO LOWER DEWPOINTS SOME BOTH DAYS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MIXING
POTENTIAL. ALSO BLENDED IN SOME BIAS CORRECTED NUMBERS INTO THE
HIGHS BOTH DAYS TO BOOST THEM BY A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY...WITH
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED FOR WED/THU.
NEXT ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED COMES FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THE NEW ENGLAND
H5 LOW MENTIONED IN THE SECOND PARAGRAPH...THE GFS IS QUITE A BIT
FASTER WITH BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH THAN THE ECMWF. THIS SPREAD IN
THE FRONTS TIMING EXPLAINS THE NICE SMEARING OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONT DOES HAVE A COUPLE OF FACTORS
THAT CAN GIVE ONE A LITTLE BIT MORE HOPE FOR SEEING PRECIP WITH THIS
BOUNDARY AS OPPOSED TO THE ONE FOR MONDAY NIGHT. NUMBER ONE...THERE
WILL BE NO UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS INTERCEPTING MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTH. ALSO MAKING THE PRECIP POTENTIAL LOOK SLIGHTLY BETTER IS THAT
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE LOOKS BETTER ON FRIDAY AND THIS FRONT
ACTUALLY HAS SOME H85 FLOW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT OUT AHEAD OF IT.
STILL...THE AIRMASS IT WILL BE DISPLACING AGAIN LOOKS INCREDIBLY DRY
AND WITH INSTABILITY LACKING...ANYTHING WE DO SEE LOOKS PRETTY LIGHT
AT THIS POINT.
AS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS NEXT WEEK...HUMIDITIES EACH AFTERNOON
LOOK TO GET DOWN INTO THE 20S/30S. WINDS STILL LOOK LIGHT THOUGH
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT THURSDAY AND FRI WILL FEATURE STRONGER WINDS
AND IF THE MOISTURE RETURN ENDS UP BEING RATHER LACKING...WE COULD
HAVE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN. AT THIS POINT...THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE DAY THAT HAS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL TO GENERATE RED
FLAG CONDITIONS AS OUR SE WINDS WILL BE EMANATING FROM A VERY DRY
SFC RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES....WHILE FRIDAY AT THIS
POINT LOOKS TO FEATURE HIGHER DEWPS WITH THE PASSING FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
VFR/SKC THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES
ACROSS MN/WI FROM ONTARIO. NORTHERLY WINDS 5-8 KTS TODAY ACROSS
EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI WITH EASTERLY WINDS 5-8 KTS ACROSS
WESTERN MN.
KMSP..FEW CONCERNS THIS TAF CYCLE AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS. THE
WIND WILL MEANDER AROUND SOME THIS MORNING FROM 050 TO 080 AT 5
KTS OR LESS THEN BECOME MORE 030 AT 8 KTS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS N 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. SLGT CHC OF MRNG -SHRA. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND N 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1051 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BEFORE A STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA MID WEEK. SEASONABLE AND
DRY HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT IS VERY WELL DEFINED IN BOTH
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...AS WELL AS SURFACE OBS. FRONT IS
STILL CREEPING SOUTHWARD AND IS JUST SOUTH OF A LINE ROUGHLY FROM
OAK ISLAND TO FLORENCE SC. A THICK BLANKET OF STRATUS FOLLOWS
NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH NO PRECIP PRESENT. FOR THIS MORNING...HAVE
DROPPED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGHOUT AND CHANGED CHARACTER OF
PRECIPITATION TO RAIN/DRIZZLE. THIS IS BASED ON AN ANALYSIS OF THE
LATEST DATA...WHICH SHOWS A VERY STABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE OF ANY CONVECTION REMAINS OVER OUR
SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING
WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHEST AND CLOUD COVER WILL NOT BE
COMPLETELY OVERCAST. EVEN THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE A LOW-END
PROBABILITY THOUGH. WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT TEMPS FOR TODAY WITH
AN EYE TOWARDS LOWERING THEM BY A CATEGORY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS:
TODAY A MIXED BAG OF WEATHER FEATURES RANGING FROM FOG TO SHOWERS
TO A FEW AFTERNOON TSTMS TO A MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL OF
NEARLY 20 DEGREES FROM THE NORTHERN INTERIOR OF SE NC TO SOUTHERN
INLAND SC. NIGHT-TIME IMAGERY SHOWS WELL THE POST-FRONTAL STRATUS
NORTH OF AN E TO W COLD FRONT WHICH PRESENTLY BI-SECTS OUR AREA.
THIS FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH AFTERNOON. STRONG LATE APRIL
SUN WILL HEAT THE LOW- LEVELS OVER INLAND SC IN CONJUNCTION WITH
LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IN THE NEAR PEAK OF DIURNAL
WARMING...SPARKING A CHANCE AT TSTMS. ALTHOUGH DRY WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE VERTICAL GROWTH OF CELLS...DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT AND SWIFT SEAWARD MOTION COULD BRING POTENTIALLY GUSTY
WINDS TO SEVERE LIMITS...AND SPC PAINTS A MARGINAL RISK OF STORMS
OVER SC.
DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR FROM THE NORTH WINS OUT LATER TONIGHT AS TD
VALUES DROP...WITH POST FRONTAL COOL AIR ADVECTION STABILIZING
THE LOW-LEVELS AS WELL. POP VALUES DWINDLE AND PARTIAL CLEARING
WILL TREND INTO EARLY MONDAY. RELATIVELY COOL MINIMUMS MONDAY OF
UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOW TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH...AND THE BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN
INTO THE CAROLINAS MONDAY AS A DEEP MID TO UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST
OF NEW ENGLAND RETROGRADES BACK TOWARD THE WEST SOUTHWEST BEFORE
PULLING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE TUES. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS
EARLY MONDAY WILL BE SCOURED OUT BY A DEEP NW FLOW OF DRY AND
RELATIVELY COOLER AIR OVER THE AREA HOLDING ON THROUGH TUES. PCP
WATER VALUES REMAIN DOWN CLOSE TO A HALF INCH MON AFTN THROUGH
TUES AFTN. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO OFFSET THE CAA WITH 850
TEMPS HOLD AROUND 4 TO 5 C THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL EXPECT
LARGE DIURNAL SWINGS IN TEMPS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING DOWN
BELOW 50 IN MANY SPOTS ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY TUES NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL MAKE A RUN BACK TOWARD NORMAL BUT WILL FALL SHORT AFTER
SUCH A COOL START TO THE DAY.
CLOUDS WILL START INCREASING BY TUES NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES SPREADING
CLOUDS AND PCP NORTHWARD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY....LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RIDE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES ON WED. A SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE DOWN FROM THE UPPER
MID WEST AMPLIFYING THE H5 TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE EAST
COAST REACHING DOWN INTO THE GULF. THIS SHOULD GUIDE THE LOW UP
THE SOUTHEAST COAST POSSIBLY MOVING DIRECTLY OVER THE CAPE FEAR
COAST WED NIGHT INTO THURS MORNING. N-NE FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS
WILL BE OVERRUN BY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT PRODUCING INCREASING
CLOUDS AND PCP OVER THE AREA ON WED INTO THURS. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BUT DEEP MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER
THROUGH FRI. WILL SEE COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH LINGERING CLOUDS
AND CHC OF PCP IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURS AND SOME CLOUDS
THROUGH FRI AS THIS DEEP LOW FINALLY MAKES ITS WAY OFF TO THE
EAST. SHOULD SEE A WARMING AND DRYING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND AS
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA. TO THE NORTH
OF THE FRONT...EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS SOUTH OF
THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY...MAINLY BASED
ON THE HRRR MODEL. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH THE FRONT OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. MAY BE A BIT TOO PESSIMISTIC THIS EVENING AND WILL ADJUST ON
THE NEXT SET.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM SUNDAY...HAVE DROPPED SCEC HEADLINES WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE AS SEAS ARE NOW IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE WITH WINDS OF 10 TO
15 KTS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
BLUSTERY OFFSHORE WINDS TO PREVAIL THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AND
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. SEAS RUNNING 4-5 FT THIS MORNING AND AN
EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...CURRENTLY SET TO EXPIRE AT NOON. DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN
MAY REDUCE VSBYS 4NM OR LESS THIS MORNING N OF CAPE FEAR. HEATING
OVER INLAND SC THIS AFTERNOON COULD BRING A FEW STORMS OVER THE SC
WATERS...POTENTIALLY BRING GUSTY WINDS AND SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS
MAY BE NEEDED OVER SC LATER TODAY. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THIS
AFTERNOON AS NW WINDS ABATE...BUT COULD KICK UP AGAIN TONIGHT AS N
WINDS INCREASE A BIT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH
MON WITH DECENT SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS AS SHORTWAVE ROTATES
AROUND MID TO UPPER TROUGH EXITING SLOWLY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER AROUND BECOMING MORE ON SHORE BY
TUES NIGHT AROUND LOW PRESSURE AS IT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE
GULF COAST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT
MOST OF THE TIME BUT MAY REACH UP TO 5 FT IN NORTHERLY SURGE MON
NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS WAY UP THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD POSSIBLY TRACKING RIGHT ACROSS
THE WATERS FROM SW TO NE WED NIGHT INTO THURS. WINDS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW BUT FOR NOW WILL
KEEP NORTHERLY FLOW OVER MOST OF LOCAL WATERS INCREASING UP TO 15
TO 20 KTS LATE WED WITH A STRONG E-SE SWELL ON FRONT END OF SYSTEM
POSSIBLY DRIVING SEAS UP TOWARD SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH WED NIGHT.
SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET TO START WITH SPIKE WED NIGHT INTO THURS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/RGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
642 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BEFORE A STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA MID WEEK. SEASONABLE AND
DRY HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 628 AM SUNDAY...TODAY A MIXED BAG OF WEATHER FEATURES
RANGING FROM FOG TO SHOWERS TO A FEW AFTERNOON TSTMS TO A MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL OF NEARLY 20 DEGREES FROM THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR OF SE NC TO SOUTHERN INLAND SC. NIGHT-TIME IMAGERY SHOWS
WELL THE POST-FRONTAL STRATUS NORTH OF AN E TO W COLD FRONT WHICH
PRESENTLY BI-SECTS OUR AREA. THIS FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH
AFTERNOON. STRONG LATE APRIL SUN WILL HEAT THE LOW- LEVELS OVER
INLAND SC IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IN THE
NEAR PEAK OF DIURNAL WARMING...SPARKING A CHANCE AT TSTMS.
ALTHOUGH DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE VERTICAL GROWTH OF
CELLS...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND SWIFT SEAWARD MOTION COULD BRING
POTENTIALLY GUSTY WINDS TO SEVERE LIMITS...AND SPC PAINTS A
MARGINAL RISK OF STORMS OVER SC.
DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR FROM THE NORTH WINS OUT LATER TONIGHT AS TD
VALUES DROP...WITH POST FRONTAL COOL AIR ADVECTION STABILIZING
THE LOW-LEVELS AS WELL. POP VALUES DWINDLE AND PARTIAL CLEARING
WILL TREND INTO EARLY MONDAY. RELATIVELY COOL MINIMUMS MONDAY OF
UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOW TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH...AND THE BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN
INTO THE CAROLINAS MONDAY AS A DEEP MID TO UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST
OF NEW ENGLAND RETROGRADES BACK TOWARD THE WEST SOUTHWEST BEFORE
PULLING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE TUES. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS
EARLY MONDAY WILL BE SCOURED OUT BY A DEEP NW FLOW OF DRY AND
RELATIVELY COOLER AIR OVER THE AREA HOLDING ON THROUGH TUES. PCP
WATER VALUES REMAIN DOWN CLOSE TO A HALF INCH MON AFTN THROUGH
TUES AFTN. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO OFFSET THE CAA WITH 850
TEMPS HOLD AROUND 4 TO 5 C THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL EXPECT
LARGE DIURNAL SWINGS IN TEMPS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING DOWN
BELOW 50 IN MANY SPOTS ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY TUES NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL MAKE A RUN BACK TOWARD NORMAL BUT WILL FALL SHORT AFTER
SUCH A COOL START TO THE DAY.
CLOUDS WILL START INCREASING BY TUES NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES SPREADING
CLOUDS AND PCP NORTHWARD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY....LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RIDE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES ON WED. A SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE DOWN FROM THE UPPER
MID WEST AMPLIFYING THE H5 TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE EAST
COAST REACHING DOWN INTO THE GULF. THIS SHOULD GUIDE THE LOW UP
THE SOUTHEAST COAST POSSIBLY MOVING DIRECTLY OVER THE CAPE FEAR
COAST WED NIGHT INTO THURS MORNING. N-NE FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS
WILL BE OVERRUN BY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT PRODUCING INCREASING
CLOUDS AND PCP OVER THE AREA ON WED INTO THURS. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BUT DEEP MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER
THROUGH FRI. WILL SEE COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH LINGERING CLOUDS
AND CHC OF PCP IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURS AND SOME CLOUDS
THROUGH FRI AS THIS DEEP LOW FINALLY MAKES ITS WAY OFF TO THE
EAST. SHOULD SEE A WARMING AND DRYING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND AS
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA. TO THE NORTH
OF THE FRONT...EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS SOUTH OF
THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY...MAINLY BASED
ON THE HRRR MODEL. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH THE FRONT OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. MAY BE A BIT TOO PESSIMISTIC THIS EVENING AND WILL ADJUST ON
THE NEXT SET.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 628 AM SUNDAY...BLUSTERY OFFSHORE WINDS TO PREVAIL THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT. SEAS RUNNING 4-5 FT THIS
MORNING AND AN EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING...CURRENTLY SET TO EXPIRE AT NOON. DRIZZLE OR
LIGHT RAIN MAY REDUCE VSBYS 4NM OR LESS THIS MORNING N OF CAPE
FEAR. HEATING OVER INLAND SC THIS AFTERNOON COULD BRING A FEW
STORMS OVER THE SC WATERS...POTENTIALLY BRING GUSTY WINDS AND
SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED OVER SC LATER TODAY. SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON AS NW WINDS ABATE...BUT COULD KICK UP
AGAIN TONIGHT AS N WINDS INCREASE A BIT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH
MON WITH DECENT SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS AS SHORTWAVE ROTATES
AROUND MID TO UPPER TROUGH EXITING SLOWLY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER AROUND BECOMING MORE ON SHORE BY
TUES NIGHT AROUND LOW PRESSURE AS IT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE
GULF COAST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT
MOST OF THE TIME BUT MAY REACH UP TO 5 FT IN NORTHERLY SURGE MON
NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS WAY UP THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD POSSIBLY TRACKING RIGHT ACROSS
THE WATERS FROM SW TO NE WED NIGHT INTO THURS. WINDS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW BUT FOR NOW WILL
KEEP NORTHERLY FLOW OVER MOST OF LOCAL WATERS INCREASING UP TO 15
TO 20 KTS LATE WED WITH A STRONG E-SE SWELL ON FRONT END OF SYSTEM
POSSIBLY DRIVING SEAS UP TOWARD SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH WED NIGHT.
SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET TO START WITH SPIKE WED NIGHT INTO THURS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1022 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES AND COOL AIR ALOFT WILL FAVOR UNSEASONABLY CHILLY
TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF
THIS MONTH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SPRAWLING UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTROL THE
PATTERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AT LEAST. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL
TO FUNNEL A SERIES OF UPPER SHORTWAVES DOWN OUT OF NEW
YORK/EASTERN CANADA AND KEEP A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS AND THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.
THE FIRST SYSTEM CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE AS AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS
DROPPING SOUTH INTO NRN PA. THE COARSER RESOLUTION MODELS CREATE
SOME LIGHT QPF AND THE HRRR HINTS AT SOME SMALL CELLULAR ACTIVITY
AT MAX HEATING. IT MAKES SENSE WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND THE
STRONG LATE APRIL SUN. I DON`T FEEL CONFIDENT IN MEASURING
ANYWHERE HOWEVER SO WILL JUST KEEP THE MENTION OF SPRINKLES FOR
NOW.
00Z GEFS MEAN 8H TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS FROM NR 50F ACROSS THE
NW MTNS...TO NR 60F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...STILL WELL BLW
NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
CONTINUED COOLING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL TREND TWD BKN-OVC
SKIES WITH ISOLATED TO SCTD -SHRA LATE TONIGHT /BUT MORE LIKELY
AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY/.
COLD BLYR TEMPS WITH ZERO DEG C WET BULB HEIGHT ONLY 1-2KFT AGL
WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND
NW MTNS TO ALLOW WET SNOW TO MIX IN WITH THE SHOWERS...ESP AT
ELEVATIONS AOA 2000 MSL.
SFC TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50F MONDAY AFTERNOON /AND
THE ZERO WET BULB HEIGHT RISING TO BETWEEN 2-3 KFT AGL/ WILL
SUPPORT PLAIN RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ACTIVE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA WILL KEEP THE REGION IN UPPER LEVEL TROFFINESS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE BLOCKED UP NRN STREAM...GENERALLY
NW FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL TEND TO SHUNT SRN STREAM
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH OF PA.
EARLY NEXT WEEK A SHOT OF COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES AS A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT IS NUDGED SOUTHWARD ACROSS PA FROM AN UPPER LOW
OVR NEW ENG. COOL TEMPS ALOFT ASSOC WITH UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO A GOOD DEAL OF DAYTIME CLOUDINESS AND SCT SHRA /ESP OVR
THE MTNS/ MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
BY MIDWEEK...THIS LOW FINALLY LIFTS OUT FOR GOOD..BUT DIGGING
TROUGH FROM UPPER MIDWEST WILL EXTEND INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BY
LATE WEEK...COMBINED WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT
OF THE S PLAINS TOWARD THE E COAST WILL BRING POSSIBILITY OF A
DEVELOPING STORM SLIDING NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
TRACK/STRENGTH STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN...BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE
WE/LL BE BETWEEN THAT LOW PRESSURE AREA AND A HIGH OVER OHIO
VALLEY...LIKELY KEEPING CLOUDS AND SCT SHOWERS AROUND AS TEMPS
COOL BACK DOWN A BIT.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGHER BASED CEILINGS OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN AREAS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF NY.
BY MID DAY A SCT-BKN 4000-5000FT DECK WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN/WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN AS COOLER AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO
ARRIVE.
CEILINGS WILL LOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS
TONIGHT WITH RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING IN THE EVENING AT KBFD AND
AFTER MIDNIGHT AT KJST. SCT LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO MOVE
INTO THESE AREAS FROM THE NORTH. ELSEWHERE... CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE RESTRICTIONS BECOME POSS
ON MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MON...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SCT/NUMEROUS RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN.
TUE...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. IMPROVING TO VFR
LATE.
WED...NO SIG WX.
THU...MVFR POSS IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE/RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1003 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
.UPDATE...CORRECTED...
MONITORING WHAT COULD BE A VERY ACTIVE AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. THROUGH MID MORNING...SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE ALONG THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA IN A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
ENVIRONMENT. EML CAPPING/MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS LIMITING THE
INTENSITY OF THIS DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY BUT IT MAY BE A
FOREWARNING OF THINGS TO COME THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CAP IS
FORECAST TO ERODE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
ALSO BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE DRYLINE CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST EAST
OF THE BIG BEND AREA THROUGH MIDLAND WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS FAVORABLE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
ORIENTATION COULD RESULT IN A VERTICALLY VEERED PROFILE AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE. AS THE MORNING CLOUD COVER MIXES
OUT AND CAPPING DETERIORATES BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AN AREA EAST OF
DEL RIO TO SONORA WILL BE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED...BUT POTENTIALLY RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING CONVECTION WITH THE PROSPECT OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND POTENTIALLY SOME TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION
SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR...DO THINK THE DECENT SHOT
AT SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD EXTEND SOUTH TO THE HWY 57 CORRIDOR
THIS AFTERNOON.
SINCE HI RES MODELS SUCH AS TTU WRF AND HRRR ARE KEEPING CI WELL
NORTH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...DID NOT INCREASE POPS ABOVE CHC
WORDING THROUGH 00Z. BUT AS SPC HAS INCLUDED THE SAME GENERAL
LOCATIONS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IN THE ENHANCED RISK...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH INTO OUR CWA THIS
AFTERNOON.
AS FOR OVERNIGHT STORM POTENTIAL...PREVIOUS FORECAST SEEMS TO BE
ON TRACK WITH LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL RUNS. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING FOR A LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT LINE OF POTENTIALLY
SEVERE STORMS...MORE AS A STRAIGHT LINE WIND THREAT WITH LARGE
HAIL AS WELL.
TB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 88 67 85 59 71 / 40 50 30 20 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 86 66 83 58 72 / 40 50 30 20 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 87 67 85 59 74 / 40 50 30 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 86 62 83 56 70 / 50 50 30 30 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 90 62 87 60 77 / 20 20 10 - 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 87 65 83 57 69 / 50 50 30 30 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 88 65 85 59 75 / 40 40 20 - 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 87 67 84 60 73 / 40 50 30 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 86 69 82 62 73 / 40 50 50 20 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 88 68 86 61 74 / 40 40 20 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 88 69 85 62 75 / 40 40 30 10 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...03
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
957 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
.UPDATE...
MONITORING WHAT COULD BE A VERY ACTIVE AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. THROUGH MID MORNING...SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE ALONG THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA IN A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
ENVIRONMENT. EML CAPPING/MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS LIMITING THE
INTENSITY OF THIS DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY BUT IT MAY BE A
FOREWARNING OF THINGS TO COME THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CAP IS
FORECAST TO ERODE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
ALSO BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE DRYLINE CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST EAST
OF THE BIG BEND AREA THROUGH MIDLAND WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS FAVORABLE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
ORIENTATION COULD RESULT IN A VERTICALLY VEERED PROFILE AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE. AS THE MORNING CLOUD COVER MIXES
OUT AND CAPPING DETERIORATES BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AN AREA EAST OF
DEL RIO TO SONORA WILL BE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED...BUT POTENTIALLY RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING CONVECTION WITH THE PROSPECT OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND POTENTIALLY SOME TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THINK THE BEST SHOT AT SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE MAINLY NORTH
OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE ALONE COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED SEVERE CELLS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA.
LUCKILY...HI RES MODELS SUCH AS TTU WRF AND HRRR ARE KEEPING CI
WELL NORTH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND AS SUCH...DID NOT
INCREASE POPS ABOVE CHC WORDING. BUT AS SPC HAS INCLUDED THE SAME
GENERAL LOCATIONS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IN THE ENHANCED
RISK...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH
INTO OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
AS FOR OVERNIGHT STORM POTENTIAL...PREVIOUS FORECAST SEEMS TO BE
ON TRACK WITH LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL RUNS. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING OF A LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT LINE OF POTENTIALLY
SEVERE STORMS...MORE AS A STRAIGHT LINE WIND THREAT WITH LARGE
HAIL AS WELL.
TB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/
AVIATION...
THERE ARE LOW CIGS THIS MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS. EXPECT THIS TO
BE THE CASE UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND MOST OF THE EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN SAN ANTONIO AND AUSTIN...BUT
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IN AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
A HUMID AIRMASS HAS SURGED BACK NORTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
EARLY THIS MORNING ON A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTING TO THE EAST ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT TERM. THE DRYLINE SLOWLY MOVES TO THE EAST
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE DRYLINE WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY. THE MOST ACTIVE
PERIOD WILL BE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHEN UPWARD
MOTION IS MAXIMIZED BY THE DRYLINE AND TROUGH AXIS PASSAGE ALONG
WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY. CAPES OF 1000 TO 3000 J/KG
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR INDICATE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED UNTIL A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE LATE ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE FRONT CLEARS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY EVENING LEADING TO
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PROXIMITY TO THE
UPPER TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING LESS RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO THE EAST AND HAVE REMOVED
MENTION. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS RAIN FREE AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES OVER TEXAS AND A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS
FILTERS INTO OUR AREA. A COOL SURFACE HIGH BRINGS WELL BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MID WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN
PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY. THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS OFF TO THE EAST
ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN LEADING TO A WARMING TREND.
ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE DAYS BEYOND THIS
FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 88 67 85 59 71 / 40 50 30 20 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 86 66 83 58 72 / 40 50 30 20 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 87 67 85 59 74 / 40 50 30 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 86 62 83 56 70 / 50 50 30 30 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 90 62 87 60 77 / 20 20 10 - 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 87 65 83 57 69 / 50 50 30 30 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 88 65 85 59 75 / 40 40 20 - 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 87 67 84 60 73 / 40 50 30 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 86 69 82 62 73 / 40 50 50 20 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 88 68 86 61 74 / 40 40 20 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 88 69 85 62 75 / 40 40 30 10 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...03
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1231 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1231 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
UPDATE ISSUED TO REDUCE HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA BASED ON
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER THRU THE DAY THUS FAR. AS A RESULT...ALL
AREAS HAVE SEEN A COUPLE DEGREES DROP BASED OFF OF LATEST OBS
TREND IN PAST SEVERAL HRS. REST OF FORECAST UNCHANGED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE GRADIENT OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INTO MONDAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY/MONDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING
THE FLOW HAS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF COUNTRY WITH EXPECTED SOUTHERN CUTOFF LOW NOW
STARTING TO MOVE INTO ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO. NATURE OF FLOW WHICH IN
SOME RESPECTS IS RETROGRESSING A LITTLE WOULD INDICATE THE
PATTERN IS GOING TO BE SLOW TO CHANGE. COLD FRONT HAS MOVED
THROUGH WITH UPSLOPE WINDS AND STRATUS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS HANDLED THIS WELL THE GFS THE WORST AND TOO
STRONG. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS WERE HAVING A LITTLE TROUBLE WITH THE
DEVELOPING WESTERN TROUGH. THEY TENDED TO BE TOO DEEP WITH THE NAM
THE WORST. OUTSIDE OF THIS THE NAM WAS NOT DOING TOO BAD. OVERALL
THE GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND UKMET. THE
CANADIAN WERE DOING THE WORST. MODELS HAD SURFACE LOW TO OUR
SOUTHWEST TOO FAR NORTH. THE RUC AND ECMWF WERE DOING THE BEST. THE
MODELS WERE DOING WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH THE
GFS...CANADIAN...SREF AND NAM DOING THE BEST.
TODAY/TONIGHT...MAJORITY OF CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING STAYED
MOSTLY TO THE WEST. UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS TO THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE WEST NOT PAINTING/SUPPORTING A WET FORECAST WITH A
VERY DEEP DRY LAYER AND WHAT MOISTURE THERE IS AT 700 MB AT ITS
LOWEST. IT LOOKS LIKE A LOT OF DRY AIR GETS PULLED INTO THE AREA
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
SUPPORTS A RATHER FAR SOUTH SOLUTION OF THE EVENTUAL UPPER LOW
WITH THE LARGEST HEIGHT FALLS OVER ARIZONA.
NEW MODEL SUITE SUPPORTS WHAT THE ANALYSIS IS SHOWING. MAIN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION HAS STAYED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA ALL
NIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND
FOG IN THE SATURATED LOW LEVELS. DYNAMICS TO OUR WEST BEGINS TO
AFFECT MOST OF THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY BEFORE SOME DRYING ALOFT OCCUR AS
THE LIFT MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA
AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...SHOULD HAVE A WIDE VARIETY OF WEATHER
THIS MORNING.
AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD
PERSIST DURING THE MORNING. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT WITH ELEVATED CAPE AND FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES IN PLACE.
WILL BE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE
DAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE FAR WEST AND
SOUTHWEST WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DURING THIS
TIME. CLOUD COVER SHOULD STAY THICK MOST OF THE DAY WITH MAYBE
SOME CLEARING IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION AS A LITTLE DRIER AIR MOVES
IN TO THERE. KEPT THE COOLER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE WITH COOLEST
READINGS IN THE FAR WEST WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY NEED NOT GET OUT
OF THE 40S.
SOUTHERN CUTOFF LOW GETS ORGANIZED AND IN A DECENT POSITION TO GIVE
THE AREA SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST THIRD TO HALF. THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO OCCUR FROM EARLY EVENING TO NEAR
09Z AS THE BEST/DEEPEST MOISTURE GETS IN PLACE. AFTER THAT THE
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION STARTS ITS GRADUAL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ITS SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST AS THE EXITING
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY. ONCE AGAIN THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WILL
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION. CLEARING WILL ALSO
BEGIN WITH MOST OF THE NORTH HALF GETTING A LOT OF SUNSHINE BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY. COULD BE QUITE A GRADIENT WITH THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH THE NORTH THE WARMEST AS IT SEES THE MOST SUN.
LINGERING SPOTTY PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY LATE IN THE EVENING.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST IT CLEARS...TEMPERATURES COULD GET QUITE
CHILLY WITH A VERY LIGHT WIND FIELD IN PLACE.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AND NORTHERLY FLOW MOVE INTO
THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DECENT AMOUNT
OF SUN. ONE THING THAT COULD SPOIL THAT WILL BE A LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT THAT MOVES IN AND SPREADS SOME CLOUDS INTO THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA. ECMWF IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT QPF.
HOWEVER...THERE IS NO INSTABILITY AND A RATHER DEEP DRY LAYER. SO
IT SHOULD STAY DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM DUE TO SUNSHINE BUT
WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE UNFAVORABLE SURFACE WIND FIELD.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE RIDGE PUSHES
FURTHER EAST. PRECIP CHANCES MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE PAC NW TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES AND SWRLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP IS KEPT THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHORTWAVES POSSIBLY
GENERATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S. READINGS IN THE LOW 80S ARE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
FOR KGLD...THRU 12Z MONDAY CEILINGS WILL RANGE FROM OVC002-007 IN
DRIZZLE AND FOG THAT DROPS VISIBILITY IN A 2-6 MILE RANGE. AFT 12Z
MONDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH OVC015 AND VCSH. WINDS ENE THRU
FORECAST PERIOD 10-20KTS...HIGHEST BEFORE 00Z MONDAY...AND AFTER
12Z MONDAY.
FOR KMCK...SLOW INCREASING TREND IN CEILINGS HEIGHTS THRU FORECAST
PERIOD. LOOKING FOR MVFR/IFR MIX THRU 03Z...THEN TRENDING TO MVFR
BKN030 THRU 09Z...THEN VFR AT BKN035. SOME DRIZZLE THROUGH 22Z
WITH 5SM IN FOG. WINDS ENE 10-20KTS...MOST GUSTS NEAR 20KTS
THROUGH 22Z THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...JN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1130 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
UPDATE ISSUED TO DECREASE PRECIP COVERAGE THRU REST OF MORNING HRS
BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE MENTION OF
HIGHER POPS/THUNDER FROM THE ENTIRE CWA FORECAST REST OF MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MORNING HRS HERE IN THE CWA HAVE
BEEN PERSISTENT FOG AND MAINLY DRIZZLE. MOST APPRECIABLE RETURNS
HAVE BEEN FOCUSED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE CWA HAVE AIDED IN UPSLOPE CONDITIONS
KEEPING PRECIP FOCUSED WEST OF OUR CWA BORDERS. AM EXPECTING AN
INCREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THOUGH AS UPPER LOW PIVOTS OUT
ONTO THE PLAINS. HAVE SHOWN INCREASING POPS TOWARDS THAT TIMEFRAME
AS WELL AS A FEW HOURS WHERE THUNDER IS POSSIBLE WITH INCREASED
INSTABILITY WITH LOW PROXIMITY. REST OF FORECAST FOR TEMPS/WINDS
REMAIN ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE GRADIENT OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INTO MONDAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY/MONDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING
THE FLOW HAS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF COUNTRY WITH EXPECTED SOUTHERN CUTOFF LOW NOW
STARTING TO MOVE INTO ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO. NATURE OF FLOW WHICH IN
SOME RESPECTS IS RETROGRESSING A LITTLE WOULD INDICATE THE
PATTERN IS GOING TO BE SLOW TO CHANGE. COLD FRONT HAS MOVED
THROUGH WITH UPSLOPE WINDS AND STRATUS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS HANDLED THIS WELL THE GFS THE WORST AND TOO
STRONG. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS WERE HAVING A LITTLE TROUBLE WITH THE
DEVELOPING WESTERN TROUGH. THEY TENDED TO BE TOO DEEP WITH THE NAM
THE WORST. OUTSIDE OF THIS THE NAM WAS NOT DOING TOO BAD. OVERALL
THE GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND UKMET. THE
CANADIAN WERE DOING THE WORST. MODELS HAD SURFACE LOW TO OUR
SOUTHWEST TOO FAR NORTH. THE RUC AND ECMWF WERE DOING THE BEST. THE
MODELS WERE DOING WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH THE
GFS...CANADIAN...SREF AND NAM DOING THE BEST.
TODAY/TONIGHT...MAJORITY OF CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING STAYED
MOSTLY TO THE WEST. UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS TO THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE WEST NOT PAINTING/SUPPORTING A WET FORECAST WITH A
VERY DEEP DRY LAYER AND WHAT MOISTURE THERE IS AT 700 MB AT ITS
LOWEST. IT LOOKS LIKE A LOT OF DRY AIR GETS PULLED INTO THE AREA
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
SUPPORTS A RATHER FAR SOUTH SOLUTION OF THE EVENTUAL UPPER LOW
WITH THE LARGEST HEIGHT FALLS OVER ARIZONA.
NEW MODEL SUITE SUPPORTS WHAT THE ANALYSIS IS SHOWING. MAIN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION HAS STAYED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA ALL
NIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND
FOG IN THE SATURATED LOW LEVELS. DYNAMICS TO OUR WEST BEGINS TO
AFFECT MOST OF THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY BEFORE SOME DRYING ALOFT OCCUR AS
THE LIFT MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA
AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...SHOULD HAVE A WIDE VARIETY OF WEATHER
THIS MORNING.
AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD
PERSIST DURING THE MORNING. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT WITH ELEVATED CAPE AND FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES IN PLACE.
WILL BE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE
DAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE FAR WEST AND
SOUTHWEST WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DURING THIS
TIME. CLOUD COVER SHOULD STAY THICK MOST OF THE DAY WITH MAYBE
SOME CLEARING IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION AS A LITTLE DRIER AIR MOVES
IN TO THERE. KEPT THE COOLER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE WITH COOLEST
READINGS IN THE FAR WEST WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY NEED NOT GET OUT
OF THE 40S.
SOUTHERN CUTOFF LOW GETS ORGANIZED AND IN A DECENT POSITION TO GIVE
THE AREA SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST THIRD TO HALF. THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO OCCUR FROM EARLY EVENING TO NEAR
09Z AS THE BEST/DEEPEST MOISTURE GETS IN PLACE. AFTER THAT THE
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION STARTS ITS GRADUAL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ITS SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST AS THE EXITING
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY. ONCE AGAIN THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WILL
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION. CLEARING WILL ALSO
BEGIN WITH MOST OF THE NORTH HALF GETTING A LOT OF SUNSHINE BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY. COULD BE QUITE A GRADIENT WITH THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH THE NORTH THE WARMEST AS IT SEES THE MOST SUN.
LINGERING SPOTTY PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY LATE IN THE EVENING.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST IT CLEARS...TEMPERATURES COULD GET QUITE
CHILLY WITH A VERY LIGHT WIND FIELD IN PLACE.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AND NORTHERLY FLOW MOVE INTO
THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DECENT AMOUNT
OF SUN. ONE THING THAT COULD SPOIL THAT WILL BE A LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT THAT MOVES IN AND SPREADS SOME CLOUDS INTO THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA. ECMWF IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT QPF.
HOWEVER...THERE IS NO INSTABILITY AND A RATHER DEEP DRY LAYER. SO
IT SHOULD STAY DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM DUE TO SUNSHINE BUT
WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE UNFAVORABLE SURFACE WIND FIELD.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE RIDGE PUSHES
FURTHER EAST. PRECIP CHANCES MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE PAC NW TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES AND SWRLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP IS KEPT THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHORTWAVES POSSIBLY
GENERATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S. READINGS IN THE LOW 80S ARE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
FOR KGLD...THRU 12Z MONDAY CEILINGS WILL RANGE FROM OVC002-007 IN
DRIZZLE AND FOG THAT DROPS VISIBILITY IN A 2-6 MILE RANGE. AFT 12Z
MONDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH OVC015 AND VCSH. WINDS ENE THRU
FORECAST PERIOD 10-20KTS...HIGHEST BEFORE 00Z MONDAY...AND AFTER
12Z MONDAY.
FOR KMCK...SLOW INCREASING TREND IN CEILINGS HEIGHTS THRU FORECAST
PERIOD. LOOKING FOR MVFR/IFR MIX THRU 03Z...THEN TRENDING TO MVFR
BKN030 THRU 09Z...THEN VFR AT BKN035. SOME DRIZZLE THROUGH 22Z
WITH 5SM IN FOG. WINDS ENE 10-20KTS...MOST GUSTS NEAR 20KTS
THROUGH 22Z THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...JN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
317 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP CYC FLOW ARND
CLOSED LO CENTERED OVER NOVA SCOTIA EXTENDING W INTO THE UPR LKS AND
DOWNSTREAM OF UPR RDG IN THE PLAINS. SHRTWV EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPR
TROF IS NEAR THE SOO AND SHIFTING TO THE SSW IN THE NE UPR FLOW ARND
THE CLOSED LO. THIS DISTURBANCE IS BRINGING SOME CLDS TO ERN UPR
MI...BUT ANY ACCOMPANYING PCPN IS ON TRACK TO REMAIN TO THE E OF THE
CWA. THERE IS ANOTHER SHRTWV OVER WRN QUEBEC ROTATING TO THE WSW
ARND THE CLOSED LO. 12Z RAOB FM MOOSONEE ONTARIO SHOWED DEEP
SATURATION. UNDER THE TWO SHRTWVS NOTED TO THE E...THERE ARE PLENTY
OF LO CLDS E AND NE OF THE SOO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEEPER MSTR.
DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS FARTHER TO THE W AS SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB AND
INL RAOBS /12Z PWAT AT THOSE LOCATIONS WAS ABOUT 0.25 INCH AND AS
LITTLE AS 50 PCT OF NORMAL/ IS MAINTAINING MOSUNNY SKIES OVER MOST
OF THE CWA. TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 50S AWAY FM THE MODERATING
INFLUENCE OF LK SUP...BUT READINGS REMAIN NEAR 40 ALONG THE CHILLY
LK SUP SHORE.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR AREA OF
LO CLDS TO THE NE TO IMPACT UPR MI AND IMPACT ON TEMPS.
TNGT...AS SECOND SHRTWV NOW OVER WRN QUEBEC ROTATES SWWD AND OVER
FAR ERN UPR MI...THE LLVL FLOW IS FCST TO VEER MORE TO THE NE AND
ADVECT THE MORE COPIOUS LLVL MSTR INTO THE UPR LKS. IN CONCERT WITH
NOCTURNAL COOLING THAT WL END DEEP MIXING...EXPECT BKN-OVC LO CLDS
TO DVLP OVER MAINLY THE NCENTRAL AND ERN CWA AS INDICATED BY CURRENT
FCST. ALTHOUGH THE DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THIS SHRTWV
ARE FCST TO BRUSH THE ERN CWA...THE BULK OF THE MODELS INDICATE THE
PCPN WL REMAIN TO THE E OF THAT AREA WITH THE MID LVLS REMAINING TOO
DRY. SEVERAL OF THE HIER RES MODELS DO GENERATE SOME LGT PCPN OVER
MAINLY THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NCENTRAL...WHERE THE UPSLOPE FLOW WL
BE MAXIMIZED. OPTED TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF SOME DRIZZLE/FLURRIES IN
THESE AREAS LATE TNGT. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR
FAR W...WHICH WL BE FARTHER FM THE INCOMING HIER LLVL MSTR AND WHERE
DOWNSLOPE...MORE DIFFLUENT FLOW NEAR SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS WL
RESTRICT THE POTENTIAL FOR LO CLDS THAT WOULD ARRIVE LATER.
MON...WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND FCST LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVRN SHOWN
ON FCST SDNGS...EXPECT THE LO CLDS TO GRADUALLY MIX OUT. THIS
PROCESS WL BE SLOWEST OVER THE NCENTRAL AND E. H85 TEMPS WL BE CLOSE
TO 0C...SO MAX TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE 50S OVER THE INTERIOR W
AND SCENTRAL WITH DEEP MIXING. BUT HI TEMPS WL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE
LO END OF GUIDANCE OVER THE NCENTRAL AND E WITH MORE LO CLDS/LK
MODERATION IN PERSISTENT LLVL N FLOW.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
A DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED MOST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
IS DOMINANT FACTOR. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN VARIABLE...STARTING OUT WITH
A RIDGE ALOFT UPSTREAM OF LARGE UPPER LOW MOVING OFF THE EASTERN
CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. STRONG JET SURGING ACROSS WESTERN CANADA
BRINGS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SCNTRL CANADA ON MONDAY AND FM NORTHERN
ONTARIO TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. PRIMARY
WAVE SPLITS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE LINGERING
RIDGING FM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN QUEBEC. EXPECT DRY
WEATHER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF SHOWED SHORTWAVE DIVING
SSE ACROSS UPR LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT. THAT RUN OF ECMWF ALSO FORECASTED SUFFICIENT
H85-H7 RH TO GENERATE QPF OVER MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS WEDNESDAY
EVENING. GFS AND GEM-NH AND NOW THE 12Z ECMWF NOT AS BULLISH
THOUGH...KEEPING STRONGEST FORCING TO THE EAST. WILL NOT SHOW MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHANCES FAR EAST AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN CHILLY
TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHERLY GRADIENT WINDS NEAR
LK SUPERIOR. TEMPS MAY STILL TOUCH 60 DEGREES OVER INLAND AREAS NEAR
WI BORDER.
SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST BY THURSDAY PAVING THE WAY FOR RIDGING TO
EXPAND FM CNTRL PLAINS TO SCNTRL CANADA TOWARD WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
AS THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE MORE OF A LAKE BREEZE DAY AT LEAST
WEST...SO COOLING THERE WILL NOT BE AS EXPANSIVE AS WEDNESDAY.
ENOUGH GRADIENT NORTH WINDS EAST TO KEEP ANY LK MICHIGAN LAKE BREEZE
FROM DEVELOPING. DUE TO DEEPER MIXING...EXPECT HIGHS INLAND WEST TO
REACH LOW-MID 60S. SHOWED LOWEST DWPNTS/RH OVER INTERIOR WEST BUT
ALSO ALONG LK MICHIGAN WHERE PERSISTENT NORTH WINDS PROVIDE
DOWNSLOPE DRYING.
MORE STRONG JET ENERGY PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN CANADA WILL PROPEL
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER SCNTRL CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. UNLIKE THE WAVE EARLIER IN THE
WEEK...WAVE HOLDS TOGETHER WHILE PRESSING EAST AND THERE IS DECENT
MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG ASSOCIATED SFC-H85 TROUGH SWINGING TOWARD
UPPER GREAT LAKES. AFTER A WARM AND DRY DAY FOR FRIDAY WITH SOME
TEMPS REACHING LOWER 70S...SOME SHOWERS SHOULD SWING OVER THE CWA
LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...BUT DESPITE THE WARMTH AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM...THERE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH H85 THETA-E ADVECTION OR
FORECAST INSTABILITY TO PUT ANY TSRA IN ALONG THE TROUGH. SEEMS
MODELS ARE LOCKING ONTO THIS IDEA OF SOME SHRA THOUGH WITH SIMILAR
TIMING IN TROUGH PASSAGE. CARRIED LOW CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
INTO NEXT WEEKEND...GFS QUICKER WITH PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
OVER SCNTRL CANADA...SO IT SHOWS ANOTHER SFC TROUGH AND WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION/QPF INTO WESTERN LAKES AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT. 00Z
ECMWF APPEARED MORE REASONABLE BY SHOWING SLOWER PROGRESSION OF MAIN
TROUGHING AND DEVELOPING A SFC WARM FRONT FM NORTHERN PLAINS TO
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON LEADING EDGE OF VERY WARM AIR. 00Z
ECMWF WOULD INDICATE DUE TO THE MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT TO THE
NORTH OF WARM FRONT COULD SEE CHANCES OF ELEVATED SHOWERS SPREAD
TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. BETTER CHANCE
FOR TSRA WOULD BE CLOSER...BUT PROBABLY WOULD SET UP JUST SOUTH OF
UPPER LAKES CLOSER TO GRADIENT OF 1-2K J/KG MUCAPE AREA FM CNTRL
PLAINS TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LATEST ECMWF IS A MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN PLOWING MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT INTO UPR
LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LEANED ON CONSENSUS BUT DID
INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY GIVEN THAT TREND. DID NOT PUT TSRA
IN FORECAST YET THOUGH THOUGH BASED ON H85 THETA-E AND GRADIENT OF
MUCAPE FM THE 12Z ECMWF IT COULD OCCUR OVER THE AREA. GIVEN H85
TEMPS WARMING ABOVE +10C...TEMPS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY COULD RISE
AT LEAST INTO THE LOW 70S MOST AREAS AWAY FM ANY COOLING FM THE
LAKES. BASED ON 12Z RUNS OF MODELS...THINK BEST CHANCE FOR WARMING
WILL BE ON SATURDAY AFTN IN WAKE OF FRIDAY NIGHT SYSTEM WITH
WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND INCREASING SUNSHINE/DRYING. TEMPS ON
SUNDAY WILL DEPEND ON SHRA AND CLOUD COVERAGE. LEANED ON CONSENSUS
TEMPS /HIGHS MAINLY 60S/ MORE THAN SATURDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES OF
RAIN BY THAT POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
AS MORE LLVL MSTR ARRIVES FM THE NE TNGT IN THE PRESENCE OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING...EXPECT LO CLDS TO IMPACT MAINLY CMX AND
ESPECIALLY SAW...WHERE THE EXPECTED NNE WIND WL HAVE THE SHARPER
UPSLOPE COMPONENT. IFR CIGS SHOULD OCCUR AT SAW FOR A NUMBER OF HRS
LATE TNGT THRU MUCH OF MON MRNG. IFR CONDITIONS AT CMX WL ALSO BE
PSBL...BUT MAINTAINED PREVIOUS FCST LO MVFR RANGE CONDITIONS FOR
NOW. IWD MAY ALSO SEE SOME LO CLDS/MVFR CIGS...BUT DOWNSLOPE WIND
COMPONENT AND LOCATION OF WRN EDGE OF THE MORE SGNFT MSTR JUSTIFY
ONLY A SCT SKY FCST ATTM. SAW WL SEE THE SLOWEST IMPROVEMENT ON
MON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS NOT LIKELY THERE UNTIL AFTER THE END OF
THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
EXPECT N WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MON...STRONGEST OVER THE E HALF OF
THE LAKE UNDER SHARPER PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HI PRES RIDGE ALIGNED
FROM NW ONTARIO THRU THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. AS THE HI PRES RIDGE
DRIFTS TO THE E LATER ON MON THRU TUE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH UNDER 15
KTS. A LO PRES TROF WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES TUE NIGHT AND THEN
GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER HI PRES RIDGE THRU THU. SINCE THE PRES GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE...WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW 15 KTS.
ALTHOUGH THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP A BIT ON FRI AHEAD OF
ANOTHER LO PRES TROF...HI STABILITY OVER THE CHILLY LAKE WATERS
SHOULD HOLDS WINDS UNDER 15 KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
132 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO SRN HUDSON BAY. TO THE SE...A MID LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH ITS BROAD CIRCULATION
EXTENDING BACK TO THE UPPER LAKES. TWO SHORTWAVES OF NOTE ARE
SWINGING W IN THE MID LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION ACROSS SE CANADA. THE
FIRST IS S OF JAMES BAY AND THE SECOND IS N OF MAINE. AT THE SFC...
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS SUPPORTING HIGH PRES RIDGING S FROM HUDSON
BAY INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UNDER DRY AIR MASS PER 00Z
REGIONAL SOUNDINGS...CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FCST
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. TO THE NE...FIRST SHORTWAVE S OF JAMES IS
HELPING TO SPREAD SCT-BKN CLOUDS TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE S OF JAMES BAY WILL ROTATE INTO NRN LWR MI THIS
AFTN/EVENING...SPREADING SOME CLOUDINESS INTO THE ERN FCST AREA
TODAY. TRENDS IN THE MODELS SHOW A BACKING OFF ON THE POTENTIAL
CLOUD COVER WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON OVERNIGHT SATELLITE
IMAGERY. FCST THUS REFLECTS A MORE OPTIMISTIC SKY CONDITION FOR
CNTRL UPPER MI TODAY. MAY STILL SEE SOME PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS OVER THE ERN FCST AREA THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY LATE. AS
FOR TEMPS...RATHER BRISK GRADIENT FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL HOLD
TEMPS TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. MOST LAKESIDE
LOCATIONS FROM THE KEWEENAW EASTWARD WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 30S.
WELL INLAND...NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS AND PROJECTED MIXING HEIGHTS
SUGGEST HIGH TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 50F. THERE MAY BE SOME LWR
50S TOWARD THE MI/WI BORDER FROM MENOMINEE COUNTY TO IRON COUNTY.
TONIGHT...SECOND SHORTWAVE NOW N OF MAINE WILL FOLLOW THE SAME TRACK
AS THE FIRST AND SHOULD REACH NRN LWR MI LATE TONIGHT. MODELS ARE
AGGRESSIVE IN SWINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO UPPER MI TONIGHT WITH THIS
FEATURE. OF PARTICULAR NOTE IS THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THE NAM/GFS
SHOW. LOOKING TO THE NE...LOW CIGS ARE NOTED IN AND AROUND JAMES BAY
AND EASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH THIS MOISTURE PUSHING SW INTO
THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT WHEN DAYTIME HEATING IS ABSENT TO HELP
LIFT OR MIX MOISTURE OUT...IT LOOKS FAIRLY LIKELY THAT LOW CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP/EXPAND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY LATE...OVER AT LEAST THE
NCNTRL AND E...AIDED BY UPSLOPE FLOW. NAM FCST SOUNDINGS EVEN
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME -DZ/-FZDZ WHERE STRONGEST UPSLOPE
OCCURS. WILL BE SOMETHING TO TAKE A LOOK AT AGAIN IN LATER MODEL
RUNS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH SUN NIGHT WILL LEAD TO CLOUD COVER EARLY
MON OVER ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL AND ERN CWA. THE CLOUD COVER WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH AS THE SFC RIDGE MOVES BACK IN FROM THE W AS WELL AS
THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER RIDGE. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME
LIGHT DRIZZLE IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF NCENTRAL UPPER MI...BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. INTERIOR W SHOULD SEE HIGHS
APPROACH 60F ON MON...WHILE LAKESHORE AND ERN AREAS ARE QUITE A BIT
COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE UPPER 40S.
A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE TUE
EVENING AND AGAIN ON WED...WITH MODELS CURRENTLY SHOWING THE
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ON WED. MODELS HAVE NOT SHOWN GOOD CONTINUITY
WITH THESE FEATURES...SO CONFIDENCE IN EXACT DETAILS IS LOW.
HOWEVER...MODEL DO GENERALLY AGREE THAT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED
ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP FROM OCCURING. TUE WILL BE
WARMER THAN MON WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S AS THE AIRMASS WILL BE
WARMER AND THE SHORTWAVE/CLOUD COVER DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER IN
THE DAY. WED COULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT COOLER AIRMASS DEPENDING ON
DETAILS WITH THE SHORTWAVE...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE
40S TO MID 50S.
UPPER RIDGING REPLACES THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY THU INTO FRI. MODELS
HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH CONTINUITY IN THE STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE...LIMITED CONFIDENCE SOME. HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE 50S TO
MID 60S...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S ON
FRI. MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND DISCONTINUITY CERTAINLY CONTINUE AND
INCREASE ON SAT AS MODELS VARY VASTLY IN THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT
OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER CENTRAL CANADA. MODELS SHOW SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE CWA WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH LATE
FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WHICH COULD PRODUCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA.
WILL CONTINUE SHOWING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.
ADDITIONAL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS /ALSO TIED TO UNCERTAINTIES
WITH THE CENTRAL CANADA ENERGY/ WITH TEMPS ON SAT. THE 12Z/25 ECMWF
BRINGS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE TO JUST W OF THE CWA BY 00Z SUN
WHILE THE 00Z/26 GFS HAS AN UPPER TROUGH WHERE THE ECMWF HAS THE
RIDGE. AIRMASS WILL BE A LOT WARMER UNDER THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH
850MB TEMPS OF 12C BY 00Z SUN WHILE THE GFS IS AT 8C. WHILE
POTENTIAL FOR MUCH WARMER TEMPS EXISTS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH A CONSENSUS APPROACH WITH HIGHS INT HE 60S AND 70S
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
AS MORE LLVL MSTR ARRIVES FM THE NE TNGT IN THE PRESENCE OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING...EXPECT LO CLDS TO IMPACT MAINLY CMX AND
ESPECIALLY SAW...WHERE THE EXPECTED NNE WIND WL HAVE THE SHARPER
UPSLOPE COMPONENT. IFR CIGS SHOULD OCCUR AT SAW FOR A NUMBER OF HRS
LATE TNGT THRU MUCH OF MON MRNG. IFR CONDITIONS AT CMX WL ALSO BE
PSBL...BUT MAINTAINED PREVIOUS FCST LO MVFR RANGE CONDITIONS FOR
NOW. IWD MAY ALSO SEE SOME LO CLDS/MVFR CIGS...BUT DOWNSLOPE WIND
COMPONENT AND LOCATION OF WRN EDGE OF THE MORE SGNFT MSTR JUSTIFY
ONLY A SCT SKY FCST ATTM. SAW WL SEE THE SLOWEST IMPROVEMENT ON
MON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS NOT LIKELY THERE UNTIL AFTER THE END OF
THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING S THRU WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY THRU
MON...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...MOSTLY UNDER
15KT. OVER THE E...WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 20-25KT. THE
RIDGE WILL WEAKEN TUE AND GIVE WAY TO LOW PRES TROF PASSAGE TUE
NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...ANOTHER HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE S FROM HUDSON BAY
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WED/THU. WITH PRES GRADIENT ON THE WEAK
SIDE...WINDS TUE THRU THU SHOULD BE UNDER 15KT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME STRONGER WINDS ON WED AS THE HIGH BEGINS
RIDGING S INTO THE UPPER LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1115 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
A VERY PLEASANT DAY IS AHEAD WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING
STEADY FROM WESTERN ONTARIO THROUGH MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. THE
SKY WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TODAY AS WELL AS TONIGHT ALONG WITH A
LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SIMILAR
THOSE ON SATURDAY WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FORECAST...WHICH IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE SEASONAL NORMAL. THE FORECAST HIGHS TODAY LINE
UP WELL WITH MIX-DOWN FROM THE NAM AT 825MB ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
SUPER.
THE REAL CHALLENGE TODAY IS HOW LOW WILL DEW POINTS DROP...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL MN...AND THE CORRESPONDING AFTERNOON
MINIMUM HUMIDITY. THE LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW BROUGHT DEW POINTS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS INTO NORTHEAST MN SATURDAY
EVENING. DEW POINTS NEAR 20 DEGREES ARE NOW PREVALENT ACROSS
CENTRAL MN EARLY THIS MORNING. THE NAM AND RAP HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE SITUATION AND LOWER DEW POINTS TO NEAR 15 DEGREES ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON WITH AROUND 20 HERE IN THE TWIN
CITIES AND WEST CENTRAL WI. THIS RESULTS IN NEAR 15 PERCENT
MINIMUM HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL MN WITH 20
PERCENT HERE IN THE CITIES AND WEST CENTRAL WI. SOUTHERN AREAS OF
MN BOTTOM OUT AROUND 25 PERCENT. FORTUNATELY...THE NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON
KEEPING THE FIRE THREAT MAINLY IN THE LIMITED RANGE WITH ELEVATED
INDICATED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
MILD TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TAP FOR NEXT WEEK...WITH TWO
MOISTURE STARVED FRONTS TRAVERSING THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
THE TROUBLE MAKER FOR MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED CONTINUES
TO BE THE EVOLUTION OF THE DEEP CLOSED H5 LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND NEXT
WEEK. MODEL AGREEMENT IS NOT REALLY ALL THAT BAD UNTIL WE GET TO
THURSDAY...WHEN THE GFS STARTS TO BECOME MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
PUSHING THIS LOW OUT INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC...WHICH ALLOWS IT TO
BECOME CONSIDERABLY MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GEM/ECMWF WITH THE
FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS TO END THE WORK WORK GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
FOR MODEL PREFERENCES...WENT WITH A FAIRLY EQUAL BLEND THROUGH
THURSDAY...LEANING MORE TOWARD THE LESS PROGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTION
FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THE LONG TERM WILL START OFF WITH A PICTURE PERFECT DAY ON
MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...SUNNY SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. MONDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
NORTHERN MN...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA AS WELL.
PRECIP POTENTIAL STILL DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT GREAT FOR THIS
FRONT...WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS KEEPING ANY MEANINGFUL
MOISTURE WELL OF TO OUR SOUTH...WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
LOOKING WEAK AS WELL. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE AND THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP IT GENERATES AND
CONTINUED THE TREND OF FAVORING A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THIS
FRONT...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS MENTIONED.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL FEATURE ANOTHER DRY RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO BLENDED FORECAST HERE
WAS TO LOWER DEWPOINTS SOME BOTH DAYS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MIXING
POTENTIAL. ALSO BLENDED IN SOME BIAS CORRECTED NUMBERS INTO THE
HIGHS BOTH DAYS TO BOOST THEM BY A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY...WITH
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED FOR WED/THU.
NEXT ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED COMES FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THE NEW ENGLAND
H5 LOW MENTIONED IN THE SECOND PARAGRAPH...THE GFS IS QUITE A BIT
FASTER WITH BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH THAN THE ECMWF. THIS SPREAD IN
THE FRONTS TIMING EXPLAINS THE NICE SMEARING OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONT DOES HAVE A COUPLE OF FACTORS
THAT CAN GIVE ONE A LITTLE BIT MORE HOPE FOR SEEING PRECIP WITH THIS
BOUNDARY AS OPPOSED TO THE ONE FOR MONDAY NIGHT. NUMBER ONE...THERE
WILL BE NO UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS INTERCEPTING MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTH. ALSO MAKING THE PRECIP POTENTIAL LOOK SLIGHTLY BETTER IS THAT
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE LOOKS BETTER ON FRIDAY AND THIS FRONT
ACTUALLY HAS SOME H85 FLOW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT OUT AHEAD OF IT.
STILL...THE AIRMASS IT WILL BE DISPLACING AGAIN LOOKS INCREDIBLY DRY
AND WITH INSTABILITY LACKING...ANYTHING WE DO SEE LOOKS PRETTY LIGHT
AT THIS POINT.
AS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS NEXT WEEK...HUMIDITIES EACH AFTERNOON
LOOK TO GET DOWN INTO THE 20S/30S. WINDS STILL LOOK LIGHT THOUGH
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT THURSDAY AND FRI WILL FEATURE STRONGER WINDS
AND IF THE MOISTURE RETURN ENDS UP BEING RATHER LACKING...WE COULD
HAVE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN. AT THIS POINT...THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE DAY THAT HAS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL TO GENERATE RED
FLAG CONDITIONS AS OUR SE WINDS WILL BE EMANATING FROM A VERY DRY
SFC RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES....WHILE FRIDAY AT THIS
POINT LOOKS TO FEATURE HIGHER DEWPS WITH THE PASSING FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
VFR/SKC THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST
ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES. LIGHT NE WINDS BECOMING SE OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF HE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
KMSP..
WIND IS THE ONLY PROBLEM THIS PERIOD. SHOULD SEE A MORE NE
COMPONENT DEVELOP WITH MIX THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN LIGHT NORTH
INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON NIGHT...VFR. WINDS N 5 KTS.
TUE...VFR. SLGT CHC OF MRNG -SHRA. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND N 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...DWE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1135 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
...UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
NRN TX...JUST S OF THE RED RIVER WITH THE DRYLINE
ACROSS WEST TX. OUR FORECAST AREA IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF ELY TO NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW...WITH SOME
HIGHER DEWPOINT POOLING NOTED ACROSS FAR SE OK.
IN THE NEARER TERM...LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NE OK AND FAR
NW AR ARE STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF LIFTING N AND
MIXING OUT...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE.
WHILE THE HIGHEST RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN FARTHER S ACROSS CENTRAL TX...WE`LL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON STORMS MAKING A RUN TOWARD SE OK
BY THIS EVENING. LATEST 12Z NAM AND RECENT RUNS OF
THE HRRR HAVE DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF STORMS INTO OUR
AREA A BIT...SO HAVE TWEAKED EVENING POPS ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 73 52 62 47 / 10 80 70 50
FSM 76 53 63 49 / 10 50 50 70
MLC 82 55 61 48 / 10 80 70 70
BVO 69 51 61 47 / 10 50 50 40
FYV 71 49 60 45 / 10 40 30 50
BYV 65 47 61 46 / 10 20 20 30
MKO 78 53 61 48 / 10 80 70 60
MIO 67 49 63 46 / 10 20 30 30
F10 77 53 59 48 / 10 80 70 70
HHW 83 56 65 50 / 10 70 70 80
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
340 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
AND COOL AIR ALOFT WILL FAVOR UNSEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES
WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THIS MONTH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A SPRAWLING UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTROL THE
PATTERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AT LEAST. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL
TO FUNNEL A SERIES OF UPPER SHORTWAVES DOWN OUT OF NEW
YORK/EASTERN CANADA AND KEEP A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS AND THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.
THE FIRST SYSTEM CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE AS AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS
DROPPING SOUTH INTO NRN PA. THE COARSER RESOLUTION MODELS CREATE
SOME LIGHT QPF AND THE HRRR HINTS AT SOME SMALL CELLULAR ACTIVITY
AT MAX HEATING. IT MAKES SENSE WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND THE
STRONG LATE APRIL SUN. I DON`T FEEL CONFIDENT IN MEASURING
ANYWHERE HOWEVER SO WILL JUST KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED SPRINKLES
FOR NOW.
THE SPRINKLES WILL VANISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING BUT UPSTREAM
CLOUDINESS LOOKS DESTINED TO CONTINUE EDGING SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO
THE REGION. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY HOWEVER UNDER A SUBTLE AREA OF
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BETWEEN THE SYSTEM APPROACHING NOW AND A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE SLATED FOR MONDAY.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND FREEZING OVER THE NW TO AROUND 40 IN
THE SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MODELS AGREE IN BRINGING A RELATIVELY SHARP SHORTWAVE DOWN
THROUGH THE EASTERN GR LAKES AND THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. FORECAST
LAPSE RATES AREN`T TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE SO THE COVERAGE OF THE QPF
MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE. THE SREF/GEFS HAVE NOTHING MORE THAN A
SMALL CHANCE AND THAT LOOKS REASONABLE.
WITH MARGINALLY CHILLY TEMPS IN THE LOW LEVELS...CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME WET SNOWFLAKES IF THE SHOWERS MANAGE TO DEVELOP EARLY ENOUGH
IN THE DAY MONDAY. NO ACCUMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE END OF APRIL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACTIVE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA WILL KEEP THE REGION IN UPPER LEVEL TROFFINESS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT COOLER THAN
NORMAL...SHOWERY WEATHER. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE EAST AND
TRY TO PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN U.S. STARTING AROUND NEXT
WEEKEND.
EARLY THIS WEEK A SHOT OF COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES AS A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS NUDGED SOUTHWARD ACROSS PA FROM AN UPPER
LOW OVR NEW ENG. COOL TEMPS ALOFT ASSOC WITH UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO A GOOD DEAL OF DAYTIME CLOUDINESS AND SCT SHRA /ESP OVR
THE MTNS/ MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
BY MIDWEEK...SLOW MOVING SRN STREAM UPPER LOW WILL EMERGE INTO THE
SERN TO MID ATLC STATES...POSSIBLY PHASING WITH A NRN STREAM
WAVE. AT THIS POINT SIGNIFICANT PCPN LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF
PA...THOUGH THE HIEST POPS OF THE PERIOD WILL BE FROM THIS SYSTEM
ON THURSDAY. REGARDLESS...THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A CLOUDY AND COOL
DAY ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH.
AFFECTS OF THIS UPPER LOW SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AND WITH RISING HEIGHTS THE START OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS
WARMER AND DRIER...AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH BASED CEILINGS OVER MAINLY
NORTHERN AREAS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF NY.
CEILINGS WILL LOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS TONIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY MIDNIGHT IN
THE VICINITY OF BRADFORD AND AFTER MIDNIGHT AT JOHNSTOWN.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THESE AREAS
FROM THE NORTH...PROBABLY NOT UNTIL SUNRISE OR SHORTLY AFTER.
ELSEWHERE... CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
WED...NO SIG WX.
THU-FRI...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
230 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
AND COOL AIR ALOFT WILL FAVOR UNSEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES
WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THIS MONTH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SPRAWLING UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTROL THE
PATTERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AT LEAST. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL
TO FUNNEL A SERIES OF UPPER SHORTWAVES DOWN OUT OF NEW
YORK/EASTERN CANADA AND KEEP A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS AND THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.
THE FIRST SYSTEM CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE AS AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS
DROPPING SOUTH INTO NRN PA. THE COARSER RESOLUTION MODELS CREATE
SOME LIGHT QPF AND THE HRRR HINTS AT SOME SMALL CELLULAR ACTIVITY
AT MAX HEATING. IT MAKES SENSE WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND THE
STRONG LATE APRIL SUN. I DON`T FEEL CONFIDENT IN MEASURING
ANYWHERE HOWEVER SO WILL JUST KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED SPRINKLES
FOR NOW.
THE SPRINKLES WILL VANISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING BUT UPSTREAM
CLOUDINESS LOOKS DESTINED TO CONTINUE EDGING SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO
THE REGION. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY HOWEVER UNDER A SUBTLE AREA OF
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BETWEEN THE SYSTEM APPROACHING NOW AND A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE SLATED FOR MONDAY.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND FREEZING OVER THE NW TO AROUND 40 IN
THE SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
MODELS AGREE IN BRINGING A RELATIVELY SHARP SHORTWAVE DOWN
THROUGH THE EASTERN GR LAKES AND THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. FORECAST
LAPSE RATES AREN`T TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE SO THE COVERAGE OF THE QPF
MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE. THE SREF/GEFS HAVE NOTHING MORE THAN A
SMALL CHANCE AND THAT LOOKS REASONABLE.
WITH MARGINALLY CHILLY TEMPS IN THE LOW LEVELS...CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME WET SNOWFLAKES IF THE SHOWERS MANAGE TO DEVELOP EARLY ENOUGH
IN THE DAY MONDAY. NO ACCUMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE END OF APRIL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACTIVE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA WILL KEEP THE REGION IN UPPER LEVEL TROFFINESS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE BLOCKED UP NRN STREAM...GENERALLY
NW FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL TEND TO SHUNT SRN STREAM
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH OF PA.
EARLY NEXT WEEK A SHOT OF COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES AS A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT IS NUDGED SOUTHWARD ACROSS PA FROM AN UPPER LOW
OVR NEW ENG. COOL TEMPS ALOFT ASSOC WITH UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO A GOOD DEAL OF DAYTIME CLOUDINESS AND SCT SHRA /ESP OVR
THE MTNS/ MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
BY MIDWEEK...THIS LOW FINALLY LIFTS OUT FOR GOOD..BUT DIGGING
TROUGH FROM UPPER MIDWEST WILL EXTEND INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BY
LATE WEEK...COMBINED WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT
OF THE S PLAINS TOWARD THE E COAST WILL BRING POSSIBILITY OF A
DEVELOPING STORM SLIDING NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
TRACK/STRENGTH STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN...BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE
WE/LL BE BETWEEN THAT LOW PRESSURE AREA AND A HIGH OVER OHIO
VALLEY...LIKELY KEEPING CLOUDS AND SCT SHOWERS AROUND AS TEMPS
COOL BACK DOWN A BIT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH BASED CEILINGS OVER MAINLY
NORTHERN AREAS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF NY.
CEILINGS WILL LOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS TONIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY MIDNIGHT IN
THE VICINITY OF BRADFORD AND AFTER MIDNIGHT AT JOHNSTOWN.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THESE AREAS
FROM THE NORTH...PROBABLY NOT UNTIL SUNRISE OR SHORTLY AFTER.
ELSEWHERE... CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
WED...NO SIG WX.
THU-FRI...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
232 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
.DISCUSSION...
WITH THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST ON OUR SHORT TERM SEVERE WEATHER
EVOLUTION...WILL KEEP THE DISCUSSION WITH REGARDS TO THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST BRIEF. THE DISCUSSION REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF
SEVERE STORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT REMAINS MOSTLY VALID STILL AT 2
PM...SO LEFT THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE APPENDED BELOW.
CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE FOR TODAY...THE 18Z SUBJECTIVE
SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WAS OCCURRING
FARTHER NORTH THAN WHAT MODELS WERE INDICATING THIS MORNING. IF
THE SURFACE LOW DOES NOT DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON...THE PRIMARY INGREDIENTS FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE NORTH TOWARDS THE DFW METROPLEX THIS
EVENING. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN THROUGH 00Z AND THE
STRONGEST FORCING AND COMBINATION OF INGREDIENTS FOR SUPERCELLS
WILL EXIST AT THAT TIME AS A RESULT. THE BEST WINDOW FOR DISCRETE
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE CWA...EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW
STILL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK FOR THE 5 PM TO 10 PM TIME FRAME.
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE LOW CLOSELY
THIS AFTERNOON BECAUSE IF IT SETS UP FARTHER NORTH...THE BIGGEST
THREAT FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS MAY MOVE AWAY FROM CENTRAL TEXAS
AND TOWARDS THE DFW AREA. WILL HAVE TO JUST SEE WHAT HAPPENS AT
THIS POINT. ANOTHER TORNADO WATCH IS LIKELY TO BE ISSUED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WHILE THERE MAY NOT
BE MANY STORMS...THE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO POSE A
VERY HIGH THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER. CONDITIONS STILL LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES
WHEREVER SUPERCELLS DEVELOP.
A SQUALL LINE STILL LOOKS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA OR ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS THIS EVENING. THIS SQUALL LINE
STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE VERY ORGANIZED AND POSE A WIDESPREAD
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THE THREAT FOR FLOODING APPEARS TO BE UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE THREAT FOR TRAINING STORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE VERY LIKELY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE MODE AND OVERALL THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. IF A LARGE SQUALL
LINE/DERECHO MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT...IT MAY
LEAVE A STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR MONDAY. UNTIL WE KNOW WHAT HAPPENS
WITH STORMS THROUGH TONIGHT...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY THE
EXACT THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE STRONG
LIFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND
THERE WILL BE MOISTURE...SO OVERALL POPS ARE QUITE HIGH IN THE 50
TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE RANGE. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER CONDITIONS NEAR THE SURFACE MAY BE COOL AND
CLOUD COVER MAY INHIBIT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY TOMORROW. AT THIS TIME...THINK THAT THE LOCATIONS WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL TEND TO BE
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AS THE OVERNIGHT SQUALL LINE IS MOST LIKELY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. WE WILL OBVIOUSLY HAVE TO REEVALUATE THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT TOMORROW MORNING AFTER THE SQUALL LINE
HAS MOVED EAST OF THE CWA.
TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER NORTH
TEXAS...CENTERED OVER THE RED RIVER. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEEING
SOME STORMS RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE UPPER LOW AS THE COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT...HOWEVER SKIES WILL
LIKELY BE OVERCAST...SO SURFACE BASED STORMS APPEAR TO BE VERY
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY NEAR THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW...SO
HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS NEAR THE RED RIVER...AND LOWEST POPS ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PREVIOUS UPDATE /ISSUED AT 1239 PM/...
MESOSCALE FORECAST UPDATE REGARDING THE FORECAST FOR SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY...
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO BORDER. 500 MB
HEIGHT FALLS OF 6 TO 12 DM WERE OBSERVED DOWNSTREAM OF THIS UPPER
TROUGH...AND THE MAGNITUDE OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS IS INDICATIVE OF
STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT TO THE EAST. AT THE 700 MB
LEVEL...A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WAS OBSERVED...WITH
A TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE IN THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER OF 22 DEG C
LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THIS PLUME OF ENHANCED LAPSE RATES...A 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET CORE
WAS OBSERVED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...AT THE
850 MB LEVEL...DEEP MOISTURE WAS ONLY OBSERVED OVER SOUTHWEST
TEXAS WITH A DRYLINE SUBJECTIVELY ANALYZED NEAR THE TX/OK
BORDER...EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AND INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO ABOUT 60 MILES WEST OF DEL RIO. A 15Z SURFACE
ANALYSIS OBSERVED RICH MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG THE TX GULF COAST
WITH MID 70S DEW POINTS OBSERVED WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF HOUSTON.
FOR TODAY...NEARLY ALL SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON
OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS SURFACE PRESSURE
FALLING AT A RATE OF 2-3 MB PER HOUR LEADING UP TO 00Z. AT
15Z...THE LOWEST SURFACE PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WAS AROUND 1002 MB...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SURFACE LOW`S
PRESSURE WILL FALL TO 993 TO 995 MB BY 00Z. THAT MAGNITUDE OF
PRESSURE FALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW IS FAIRLY
INTENSE...AND SHOULD RESULT IN A CONVERGENCE OF PARAMETERS THAT
WILL SUPPORT A LOCALIZED SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONE OF THE KEY FORECAST
CHALLENGES TODAY WILL BE DETERMINING WHERE THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
AS THE RELATIVE THREATS FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES WILL VARY
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT POSITION OF THIS LOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THE 12Z NAM AND 16Z HRRR INDICATE THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED
JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND JUST NORTH OF SAN ANGELO. IF THIS
POSITION FOR THE SURFACE LOW IS CORRECT...THE THREAT FOR DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS WOULD BE MAXIMIZED TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE
LOW...WHERE A TRIPLE POINT WOULD LIKELY SET UP. SUPERCELLS WOULD
BE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP NEAR THIS TRIPLE POINT...AND THEN MOVE
EAST IN THE RELATIVELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. STORMS
APPEAR TO BE VERY LIKELY IN A SUPERCELL STORM MODE IF THEY DEVELOP
IN THIS TRIPLE POINT BY 00Z AS CAPE IS FORECAST TO BE ON THE ORDER
OF 3000 J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50 KTS IN THE 0-6 KM AGL
LAYER. THE SHAPE OF THE 0-3 KM HODOGRAPH IS EXPECTED TO BE
CLOCKWISE LOOPING...AND DYNAMICALLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR RIGHT
MOVING SUPERCELLS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SUPERCELL STORM MOTION TO
BE ALMOST DUE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELLS LOOK MOST LIKELY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20
BASED ON THE FORECAST POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW. THIS PLACES
MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE PRIMARY THREAT CORRIDOR FOR DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF WELL-ORGANIZED
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND TORNADOES. THE RESIDENTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO PAY VERY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A RESULT. OF COURSE IF THE SURFACE LOW IS FARTHER NORTH
...THE PRIMARY THREAT CORRIDOR FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL MOVE
NORTH WITH IT. AWAY FROM THIS PRIMARY THREAT CORRIDOR...IT IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FOR SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE
IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME INDICATED BY THE CLOCKWISE
LOOPING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH. THIS LIFT/FORCING IS NOT AS STRONG
AND FOCUSED...SO IT IS SIMPLY MORE DIFFICULT TO KNOW IF...WHEN
AND WHERE A SUPERCELL MAY DEVELOP IN THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME.
AFTER 00Z...THE VERY STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION THAT SUGGESTS A VERY WELL ORGANIZED
SQUALL LINE WILL DEVELOP NEAR CHILDRESS...AND MOVE SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. THERE ARE HINTS IN THE MODEL
MASS FIELDS THAT THIS SQUALL LINE COULD POTENTIALLY BE VERY WELL
ORGANIZED...AND MAY POSE A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS IT
MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT. IF THIS SQUALL LINE
DOES INDEED ORGANIZE...IT MAY PERSIST LONG ENOUGH AND PRODUCE
ENOUGH STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE TO QUALIFY AS A DERECHO BY THE
TIME IT EXITS THE CWA TO THE EAST WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE PRIMARY
TIME THIS SQUALL LINE/BOW-ECHO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER NORTH
TEXAS IS FROM 10 PM TO 3 AM. THE EXISTENCE OF THIS SQUALL LINE IS
FAR FROM 100 PERCENT CERTAIN...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY ORGANIZE BASED
ON THE CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THIS MORNING`S HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE PRIMARY THREATS WITHIN THIS SQUALL LINE WOULD BE
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. ASSUMING THE SQUALL LINE MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA AFTER SUNSET AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...THIS MAY
REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH-END DAMAGING WINDS. REGARDLESS...
WIND DAMAGE WOULD STILL BE LIKELY AS THIS SQUALL LIKE WOULD
PROBABLY BE VERY WELL ORGANIZED. LARGE HAIL AND A BRIEF TORNADO
MAY ALSO OCCUR IN THIS LINE...ASSUMING IT DEVELOPS.
LAST BUT NOT LEAST...WE WILL ALSO BE MONITORING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF A WARM
FRONT SETS UP ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND TRAIN OVER
AREAS TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS MAY EVOLVE INTO ANOTHER LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING EVENT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND GENERALLY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35...VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED ON FRIDAY. WILL HOLD
OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IN THIS TAKING
PLACE IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME. IF IT OCCURS...THESE LOCATIONS
HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED QUITE A BIT OF RAINFALL ON FRIDAY...SO
FLOODING WOULD TEND TO OCCUR QUICKLY IF STORMS BEGIN TO TRAIN OVER
THIS REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SHORT TERM FORECAST UPDATES FOR CONVECTION
MODE THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT STORMS WILL START DEVELOPING
NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND EVOLVE INTO DISCRETE SUPERCELLS BY/AFTER
4 PM/21Z.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1256 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE A VERY ACTIVE PERIOD FOR THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS TAF SITES WITH CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE SEVERE.
CONVECTION IS ONGOING SOUTHWEST OF METROPLEX TAF SITES AND JUST
TO THE WEST OF WACO. THIS ACTIVITY IS ELEVATED...AND BASED AROUND
10KFT. STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE COLUMN ARE LIKELY
CONTRIBUTING TO TURBULENCE IN THIS AREA AS WELL. LIGHTNING WILL BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERN AS THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO PUSH TOWARDS THE
METROPLEX THIS AFTERNOON.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE AS SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
INCREASES DUE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. IT APPEARS
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS NEAR THE METROPLEX WILL
OCCUR AFTER 02Z. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS KEYING IN ON AN AREA
ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A
STRONG LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP AND RIDE THE BOUNDARY
EASTWARD TOWARD THE METROPLEX TAF SITES AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS
SOLUTION IS FAR FROM CERTAIN...BUT THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT FROM
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE WHICH LENDS CREDENCE TO THIS SCENARIO. THE
MAIN THREAT WITH THIS SOLUTION WOULD BE VERY STRONG WINDS...BUT
ALL TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
THE LINE OF STORMS BEING ADVERTISED ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WILL LIKELY BE TOO FAR NORTH TO IMPACT THE WACO TAF SITE.
HOWEVER... WACO WILL BE THREATENED BY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE DRYLINE. AGAIN...ALL TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CENTRAL TEXAS.
AFTER STORMS CLEAR OUT EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING...SOME BORDERLINE
IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION. HAVE KEPT TAF SITES ON THE LOW END OF MVFR FOR NOW
SINCE THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THE POST-CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT
TOMORROW.
STALLEY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 63 69 53 63 48 / 70 60 60 20 5
WACO, TX 64 76 54 65 46 / 60 60 40 10 0
PARIS, TX 56 66 52 63 45 / 70 70 70 30 5
DENTON, TX 62 66 52 63 45 / 70 60 60 20 5
MCKINNEY, TX 60 66 52 63 46 / 70 70 70 20 5
DALLAS, TX 63 69 53 63 50 / 70 60 60 20 5
TERRELL, TX 61 70 54 63 48 / 60 70 70 20 5
CORSICANA, TX 64 73 54 64 48 / 60 60 60 20 0
TEMPLE, TX 64 81 55 66 48 / 60 30 40 10 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 61 71 53 63 46 / 70 60 40 10 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
143 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SOME
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU TODAY. IT APPEARS THIS
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ISOLATED AND NOT IMPACT OUR TAF SITES. FOR
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...LOW CLOUDS RETURN TO THE I-35
CORRIDOR...RESULTING IN LOW END MVFR TO IFR CIGS. THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. WE WILL MENTION TEMPO
GROUPS FOR TSRA FOR THE I-35 TAF SITES BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. CONVECTION
SHOULD MOVE EAST OF ALL TAF SITES AFTER 13Z...LEAVING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS UNTIL 15Z. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/
UPDATE...CORRECTED...
MONITORING WHAT COULD BE A VERY ACTIVE AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. THROUGH MID MORNING...SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE ALONG THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA IN A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
ENVIRONMENT. EML CAPPING/MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS LIMITING THE
INTENSITY OF THIS DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY BUT IT MAY BE A
FOREWARNING OF THINGS TO COME THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CAP IS
FORECAST TO ERODE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
ALSO BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE DRYLINE CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST EAST
OF THE BIG BEND AREA THROUGH MIDLAND WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS FAVORABLE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
ORIENTATION COULD RESULT IN A VERTICALLY VEERED PROFILE AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE. AS THE MORNING CLOUD COVER MIXES
OUT AND CAPPING DETERIORATES BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AN AREA EAST OF
DEL RIO TO SONORA WILL BE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED...BUT POTENTIALLY RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING CONVECTION WITH THE PROSPECT OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND POTENTIALLY SOME TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION
SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR...DO THINK THE DECENT SHOT
AT SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD EXTEND SOUTH TO THE HWY 57 CORRIDOR
THIS AFTERNOON.
SINCE HI RES MODELS SUCH AS TTU WRF AND HRRR ARE KEEPING CI WELL
NORTH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...DID NOT INCREASE POPS ABOVE CHC
WORDING THROUGH 00Z. BUT AS SPC HAS INCLUDED THE SAME GENERAL
LOCATIONS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IN THE ENHANCED RISK...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH INTO OUR CWA THIS
AFTERNOON.
AS FOR OVERNIGHT STORM POTENTIAL...PREVIOUS FORECAST SEEMS TO BE
ON TRACK WITH LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL RUNS. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING FOR A LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT LINE OF POTENTIALLY
SEVERE STORMS...MORE AS A STRAIGHT LINE WIND THREAT WITH LARGE
HAIL AS WELL.
TB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 65 85 59 72 51 / 70 30 20 10 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 65 83 58 72 49 / 70 30 20 10 -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 66 84 59 73 50 / 60 30 10 10 -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 62 83 56 70 49 / 70 30 30 20 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 62 87 60 76 51 / 10 0 - - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 63 83 57 70 49 / 70 30 30 10 -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 63 85 59 74 49 / 40 20 - - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 65 83 60 72 50 / 70 30 10 10 -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 69 82 61 72 50 / 60 50 20 10 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 66 85 60 73 51 / 50 20 10 10 -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 67 84 62 74 51 / 40 30 10 10 -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...03
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1256 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
.AVIATION...
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE A VERY ACTIVE PERIOD FOR THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS TAF SITES WITH CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE SEVERE.
CONVECTION IS ONGOING SOUTHWEST OF METROPLEX TAF SITES AND JUST
TO THE WEST OF WACO. THIS ACTIVITY IS ELEVATED...AND BASED AROUND
10KFT. STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE COLUMN ARE LIKELY
CONTRIBUTING TO TURBULENCE IN THIS AREA AS WELL. LIGHTNING WILL BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERN AS THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO PUSH TOWARDS THE
METROPLEX THIS AFTERNOON.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE AS SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
INCREASES DUE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. IT APPEARS
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS NEAR THE METROPLEX WILL
OCCUR AFTER 02Z. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS KEYING IN ON AN AREA
ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A
STRONG LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP AND RIDE THE BOUNDARY
EASTWARD TOWARD THE METROPLEX TAF SITES AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS
SOLUTION IS FAR FROM CERTAIN...BUT THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT FROM
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE WHICH LENDS CREDENCE TO THIS SCENARIO. THE
MAIN THREAT WITH THIS SOLUTION WOULD BE VERY STRONG WINDS...BUT
ALL TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
THE LINE OF STORMS BEING ADVERTISED ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WILL LIKELY BE TOO FAR NORTH TO IMPACT THE WACO TAF SITE.
HOWEVER... WACO WILL BE THREATENED BY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE DRYLINE. AGAIN...ALL TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CENTRAL TEXAS.
AFTER STORMS CLEAR OUT EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING...SOME BORDERLINE
IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION. HAVE KEPT TAF SITES ON THE LOW END OF MVFR FOR NOW
SINCE THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THE POST-CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT
TOMORROW.
STALLEY
&&
.UPDATE...
...MESOSCALE FORECAST UPDATE REGARDING THE FORECAST FOR SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY...
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO BORDER. 500 MB
HEIGHT FALLS OF 6 TO 12 DM WERE OBSERVED DOWNSTREAM OF THIS UPPER
TROUGH...AND THE MAGNITUDE OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS IS INDICATIVE OF
STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT TO THE EAST. AT THE 700 MB
LEVEL...A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WAS OBSERVED...WITH
A TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE IN THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER OF 22 DEG C
LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THIS PLUME OF ENHANCED LAPSE RATES...A 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET CORE
WAS OBSERVED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...AT THE
850 MB LEVEL...DEEP MOISTURE WAS ONLY OBSERVED OVER SOUTHWEST
TEXAS WITH A DRYLINE SUBJECTIVELY ANALYZED NEAR THE TX/OK
BORDER...EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AND INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO ABOUT 60 MILES WEST OF DEL RIO. A 15Z SURFACE
ANALYSIS OBSERVED RICH MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG THE TX GULF COAST
WITH MID 70S DEW POINTS OBSERVED WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF HOUSTON.
FOR TODAY...NEARLY ALL SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON
OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS SURFACE PRESSURE
FALLING AT A RATE OF 2-3 MB PER HOUR LEADING UP TO 00Z. AT
15Z...THE LOWEST SURFACE PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WAS AROUND 1002 MB...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SURFACE LOW`S
PRESSURE WILL FALL TO 993 TO 995 MB BY 00Z. THAT MAGNITUDE OF
PRESSURE FALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW IS FAIRLY
INTENSE...AND SHOULD RESULT IN A CONVERGENCE OF PARAMETERS THAT
WILL SUPPORT A LOCALIZED SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONE OF THE KEY FORECAST
CHALLENGES TODAY WILL BE DETERMINING WHERE THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
AS THE RELATIVE THREATS FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES WILL VARY
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT POSITION OF THIS LOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THE 12Z NAM AND 16Z HRRR INDICATE THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED
JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND JUST NORTH OF SAN ANGELO. IF THIS
POSITION FOR THE SURFACE LOW IS CORRECT...THE THREAT FOR DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS WOULD BE MAXIMIZED TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE
LOW...WHERE A TRIPLE POINT WOULD LIKELY SET UP. SUPERCELLS WOULD
BE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP NEAR THIS TRIPLE POINT...AND THEN MOVE
EAST IN THE RELATIVELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. STORMS
APPEAR TO BE VERY LIKELY IN A SUPERCELL STORM MODE IF THEY DEVELOP
IN THIS TRIPLE POINT BY 00Z AS CAPE IS FORECAST TO BE ON THE ORDER
OF 3000 J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50 KTS IN THE 0-6 KM AGL
LAYER. THE SHAPE OF THE 0-3 KM HODOGRAPH IS EXPECTED TO BE
CLOCKWISE LOOPING...AND DYNAMICALLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR RIGHT
MOVING SUPERCELLS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SUPERCELL STORM MOTION TO
BE ALMOST DUE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELLS LOOK MOST LIKELY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20
BASED ON THE FORECAST POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW. THIS PLACES
MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE PRIMARY THREAT CORRIDOR FOR DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF WELL-ORGANIZED
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND TORNADOES. THE RESIDENTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO PAY VERY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A RESULT. OF COURSE IF THE SURFACE LOW IS FARTHER NORTH
...THE PRIMARY THREAT CORRIDOR FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL MOVE
NORTH WITH IT. AWAY FROM THIS PRIMARY THREAT CORRIDOR...IT IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FOR SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE
IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME INDICATED BY THE CLOCKWISE
LOOPING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH. THIS LIFT/FORCING IS NOT AS STRONG
AND FOCUSED...SO IT IS SIMPLY MORE DIFFICULT TO KNOW IF...WHEN
AND WHERE A SUPERCELL MAY DEVELOP IN THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME.
AFTER 00Z...THE VERY STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION THAT SUGGESTS A VERY WELL ORGANIZED
SQUALL LINE WILL DEVELOP NEAR CHILDRESS...AND MOVE SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. THERE ARE HINTS IN THE MODEL
MASS FIELDS THAT THIS SQUALL LINE COULD POTENTIALLY BE VERY WELL
ORGANIZED...AND MAY POSE A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS IT
MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT. IF THIS SQUALL LINE
DOES INDEED ORGANIZE...IT MAY PERSIST LONG ENOUGH AND PRODUCE
ENOUGH STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE TO QUALIFY AS A DERECHO BY THE
TIME IT EXITS THE CWA TO THE EAST WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE PRIMARY
TIME THIS SQUALL LINE/BOW-ECHO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER NORTH
TEXAS IS FROM 10 PM TO 3 AM. THE EXISTENCE OF THIS SQUALL LINE IS
FAR FROM 100 PERCENT CERTAIN...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY ORGANIZE BASED
ON THE CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THIS MORNING`S HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE PRIMARY THREATS WITHIN THIS SQUALL LINE WOULD BE
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. ASSUMING THE SQUALL LINE MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA AFTER SUNSET AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...THIS MAY
REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH-END DAMAGING WINDS. REGARDLESS...
WIND DAMAGE WOULD STILL BE LIKELY AS THIS SQUALL LIKE WOULD
PROBABLY BE VERY WELL ORGANIZED. LARGE HAIL AND A BRIEF TORNADO
MAY ALSO OCCUR IN THIS LINE...ASSUMING IT DEVELOPS.
LAST BUT NOT LEAST...WE WILL ALSO BE MONITORING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF A WARM
FRONT SETS UP ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND TRAIN OVER
AREAS TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS MAY EVOLVE INTO ANOTHER LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING EVENT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND GENERALLY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35...VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED ON FRIDAY. WILL HOLD
OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IN THIS TAKING
PLACE IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME. IF IT OCCURS...THESE LOCATIONS
HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED QUITE A BIT OF RAINFALL ON FRIDAY...SO
FLOODING WOULD TEND TO OCCUR QUICKLY IF STORMS BEGIN TO TRAIN OVER
THIS REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SHORT TERM FORECAST UPDATES FOR CONVECTION
MODE THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT STORMS WILL START DEVELOPING
NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND EVOLVE INTO DISCRETE SUPERCELLS BY/AFTER
4 PM/21Z.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST PORTION OF TODAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO
SATURDAY...WITH VERY WARM AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. ONE DIFFERENCE
WILL BE THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ACTIVE
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...THEREAFTER...A MORE
TRANQUIL PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION /SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE/ ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AT THIS HOUR REVEALED THAT THE MAIN UPPER LOW THAT
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAY/S SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WAS LOCATED
ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THIS VERY DYNAMIC TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD BEFORE CLOSING OFF LATER TODAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA BENEATH A
STOUT EML THAT IS SIMULTANEOUSLY ADVECTING EASTWARD OFF OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE EML IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE ASCENT PRODUCED BY THE APPROACHING UPPER
LOW /AS EVIDENCED BY 30 TO 40 METER HEIGHT FALLS/ SHOULD SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION MID TO LATE MORNING MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF A BOWIE TO GLEN ROSE TO KILLEEN LINE. THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE LAYER SHEAR MAY
SUPPORT A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THREAT IN THE MORNING...SHOULD
STORMS DEVELOP.
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AS A 100 KT UPPER LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THE SOUTHERN TX
PANHANDLE AND A VORTICITY LOBE ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE MAIN
TROUGH OUT INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. DURING THIS TIME...THE DRYLINE
WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPEN NEAR THE BIG COUNTRY. THE STRONG
LIFT...DIURNAL HEATING...AND INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD ERODE
SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. VERY HIGH CAPE VALUES ON THE
ORDER OF 2500-3000 J/KG....MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 8
C/KM AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 45 TO 50 KNOTS
WILL EASILY SUPPORT A LARGE AND DAMAGING HAIL THREAT. AS THE
STORMS MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST...GENERALLY BEYOND A BOWIE TO
MINERAL WELLS TO WACO LINE THIS AFTERNOON...THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DRIER WHICH INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR
DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
WHILE TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS NEAR AND JUST EAST OF
THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON...THIS THREAT ACTUALLY INCREASES DURING
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE AND BACK IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN LARGE HODOGRAPHS WHILE CINH IS STILL LOW. AN ENHANCED
TORNADO RISK MAY DEVELOP ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES THAT WOULD
INCLUDE THE WACO/TEMPLE/KILLEEN AREAS.
UNLIKE MOST SEVERE EVENTS...WE EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO
FIRE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS
SITUATED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO FOSTER AN INCREASING
HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS CONTINUED ADVECTION OF WARM MOIST AIR INTO
THE REGION IS EXPECTED.
THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT ALL INTERESTS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
NEED TO PAY PARTICULARLY CLOSE ATTENTION TO WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY
AS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HIGH IMPACT SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
IN THE FORM OF LARGE HAIL...DESTRUCTIVE WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES.
&&
.LONG TERM...
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ON MONDAY AS THE
CLOSED LOW MEANDERS ACROSS THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
STALL OUT NEAR THE RED RIVER AND MAY EVEN DRIFT SOUTHWARD. STRONG
LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT WARM MOIST
AIR NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS. WITH THE LACK
OF A STRONG CAP...EXPECT WIDESPREAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY MITIGATE THE LARGER SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON
MONDAY...EXCEPT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE SOME HEATING WILL
BE POSSIBLE. PERHAPS THE LARGER THREAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN ON MONDAY AS PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TOWARDS
THE 1.15-1.25 INCH RANGE. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD
WATCHES PARTICULARLY FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES UNTIL WE GET CLOSER
TO THE EVENT. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD TAPER OFF BY TUESDAY MORNING AS
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND THE UPPER FORCING
DEPARTS THE REGION. COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AS THE
OMEGA PATTERN ESTABLISHES ITSELF. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN MAY BE
TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF MAY.
15-BAIN/TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 84 61 71 54 64 / 40 70 70 60 20
WACO, TX 85 65 76 54 67 / 50 60 50 40 10
PARIS, TX 83 57 67 53 62 / 30 70 70 70 30
DENTON, TX 83 60 67 52 64 / 40 70 70 60 20
MCKINNEY, TX 83 59 68 53 64 / 40 70 70 70 20
DALLAS, TX 85 61 70 54 64 / 40 70 70 60 20
TERRELL, TX 85 61 71 55 64 / 40 60 70 70 20
CORSICANA, TX 85 65 73 54 65 / 30 60 60 60 20
TEMPLE, TX 86 65 80 54 67 / 50 60 40 40 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 82 62 74 55 65 / 50 70 60 40 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
77
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1239 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
.UPDATE...
...MESOSCALE FORECAST UPDATE REGARDING THE FORECAST FOR SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY...
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO BORDER. 500 MB
HEIGHT FALLS OF 6 TO 12 DM WERE OBSERVED DOWNSTREAM OF THIS UPPER
TROUGH...AND THE MAGNITUDE OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS IS INDICATIVE OF
STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT TO THE EAST. AT THE 700 MB
LEVEL...A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WAS OBSERVED...WITH
A TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE IN THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER OF 22 DEG C
LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THIS PLUME OF ENHANCED LAPSE RATES...A 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET CORE
WAS OBSERVED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...AT THE
850 MB LEVEL...DEEP MOISTURE WAS ONLY OBSERVED OVER SOUTHWEST
TEXAS WITH A DRYLINE SUBJECTIVELY ANALYZED NEAR THE TX/OK
BORDER...EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AND INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO ABOUT 60 MILES WEST OF DEL RIO. A 15Z SURFACE
ANALYSIS OBSERVED RICH MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG THE TX GULF COAST
WITH MID 70S DEW POINTS OBSERVED WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF HOUSTON.
FOR TODAY...NEARLY ALL SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON
OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS SURFACE PRESSURE
FALLING AT A RATE OF 2-3 MB PER HOUR LEADING UP TO 00Z. AT
15Z...THE LOWEST SURFACE PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WAS AROUND 1002 MB...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SURFACE LOW`S
PRESSURE WILL FALL TO 993 TO 995 MB BY 00Z. THAT MAGNITUDE OF
PRESSURE FALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW IS FAIRLY
INTENSE...AND SHOULD RESULT IN A CONVERGENCE OF PARAMETERS THAT
WILL SUPPORT A LOCALIZED SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONE OF THE KEY FORECAST
CHALLENGES TODAY WILL BE DETERMINING WHERE THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
AS THE RELATIVE THREATS FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES WILL VARY
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT POSITION OF THIS LOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THE 12Z NAM AND 16Z HRRR INDICATE THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED
JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND JUST NORTH OF SAN ANGELO. IF THIS
POSITION FOR THE SURFACE LOW IS CORRECT...THE THREAT FOR DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS WOULD BE MAXIMIZED TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE
LOW...WHERE A TRIPLE POINT WOULD LIKELY SET UP. SUPERCELLS WOULD
BE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP NEAR THIS TRIPLE POINT...AND THEN MOVE
EAST IN THE RELATIVELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. STORMS
APPEAR TO BE VERY LIKELY IN A SUPERCELL STORM MODE IF THEY DEVELOP
IN THIS TRIPLE POINT BY 00Z AS CAPE IS FORECAST TO BE ON THE ORDER
OF 3000 J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50 KTS IN THE 0-6 KM AGL
LAYER. THE SHAPE OF THE 0-3 KM HODOGRAPH IS EXPECTED TO BE
CLOCKWISE LOOPING...AND DYNAMICALLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR RIGHT
MOVING SUPERCELLS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SUPERCELL STORM MOTION TO
BE ALMOST DUE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELLS LOOK MOST LIKELY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20
BASED ON THE FORECAST POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW. THIS PLACES
MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE PRIMARY THREAT CORRIDOR FOR DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF WELL-ORGANIZED
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND TORNADOES. THE RESIDENTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO PAY VERY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A RESULT. OF COURSE IF THE SURFACE LOW IS FARTHER NORTH
...THE PRIMARY THREAT CORRIDOR FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL MOVE
NORTH WITH IT. AWAY FROM THIS PRIMARY THREAT CORRIDOR...IT IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FOR SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE
IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME INDICATED BY THE CLOCKWISE
LOOPING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH. THIS LIFT/FORCING IS NOT AS STRONG
AND FOCUSED...SO IT IS SIMPLY MORE DIFFICULT TO KNOW IF...WHEN
AND WHERE A SUPERCELL MAY DEVELOP IN THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME.
AFTER 00Z...THE VERY STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION THAT SUGGESTS A VERY WELL ORGANIZED
SQUALL LINE WILL DEVELOP NEAR CHILDRESS...AND MOVE SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. THERE ARE HINTS IN THE MODEL
MASS FIELDS THAT THIS SQUALL LINE COULD POTENTIALLY BE VERY WELL
ORGANIZED...AND MAY POSE A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS IT
MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT. IF THIS SQUALL LINE
DOES INDEED ORGANIZE...IT MAY PERSIST LONG ENOUGH AND PRODUCE
ENOUGH STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE TO QUALIFY AS A DERECHO BY THE
TIME IT EXITS THE CWA TO THE EAST WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE PRIMARY
TIME THIS SQUALL LINE/BOW-ECHO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER NORTH
TEXAS IS FROM 10 PM TO 3 AM. THE EXISTENCE OF THIS SQUALL LINE IS
FAR FROM 100 PERCENT CERTAIN...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY ORGANIZE BASED
ON THE CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THIS MORNING`S HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE PRIMARY THREATS WITHIN THIS SQUALL LINE WOULD BE
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. ASSUMING THE SQUALL LINE MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA AFTER SUNSET AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...THIS MAY
REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH-END DAMAGING WINDS. REGARDLESS...
WIND DAMAGE WOULD STILL BE LIKELY AS THIS SQUALL LIKE WOULD
PROBABLY BE VERY WELL ORGANIZED. LARGE HAIL AND A BRIEF TORNADO
MAY ALSO OCCUR IN THIS LINE...ASSUMING IT DEVELOPS.
LAST BUT NOT LEAST...WE WILL ALSO BE MONITORING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF A WARM
FRONT SETS UP ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND TRAIN OVER
AREAS TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS MAY EVOLVE INTO ANOTHER LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING EVENT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND GENERALLY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35...VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED ON FRIDAY. WILL HOLD
OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IN THIS TAKING
PLACE IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME. IF IT OCCURS...THESE LOCATIONS
HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED QUITE A BIT OF RAINFALL ON FRIDAY...SO
FLOODING WOULD TEND TO OCCUR QUICKLY IF STORMS BEGIN TO TRAIN OVER
THIS REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SHORT TERM FORECAST UPDATES FOR CONVECTION
MODE THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT STORMS WILL START DEVELOPING
NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND EVOLVE INTO DISCRETE SUPERCELLS BY/AFTER
4 PM/21Z.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 637 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/
FIRST CHALLENGE IS IFR STRATUS THAT IS MOVING NORTHWARD FROM
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS CLOUD DECK SHOULD AFFECT DAL
AFTER 13Z...AND MAY CLIP GKY/DFW AS WELL. THIS MOISTURE LAYER IS
THIN AND STRATUS SHOULD ERODE BY 15Z OR 16Z.
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MIDDAY AND THERE IS
ACTUALLY REALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A PLUME OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT INTO THE AREA EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR HIGH BASED OR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AS
THERE IS ABOUT 400-700 J/KG OF INSTABILITY FROM PARCELS LIFTED
NEAR 12000FT. DRY AIR BELOW THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIST AND WOULD
ENHANCE TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS...EVEN IF THERE IS
LITTLE RAINFALL. WILL SHOW A 2 HOUR WINDOW OF VCTS FOR THIS WAVE
OF ACTIVITY FROM 20-22Z...BUT TIMING IS NOT CERTAIN AT THIS POINT.
THE SURFACE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS MOISTURE INCREASES. THIS WILL OPEN
THE DOOR FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
AFTER IT FIRES ON THE DRY LINE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH
THAT THIS ROUND OF ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT TAF SITES...BUT SINCE
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORM WILL SHOW VCTS FROM 00Z TO
04Z. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE IN THE LATE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN A MORE SOLID LINE OF STORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP AND MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. THIS IS WHEN UPPER FORCING WILL
BE STRONGEST. WILL SHOW TSRA FROM 4Z-9Z.
AFTER THAT WILL LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF TAFS DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE...BUT KEEP SHOWERS MENTIONED WITH MVFR CIGS PREVAILING
BEHIND THE FRONT.
TR.92
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST PORTION OF TODAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO
SATURDAY...WITH VERY WARM AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. ONE DIFFERENCE
WILL BE THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ACTIVE
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...THEREAFTER...A MORE
TRANQUIL PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION /SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE/ ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AT THIS HOUR REVEALED THAT THE MAIN UPPER LOW THAT
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAY/S SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WAS LOCATED
ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THIS VERY DYNAMIC TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD BEFORE CLOSING OFF LATER TODAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA BENEATH A
STOUT EML THAT IS SIMULTANEOUSLY ADVECTING EASTWARD OFF OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE EML IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE ASCENT PRODUCED BY THE APPROACHING UPPER
LOW /AS EVIDENCED BY 30 TO 40 METER HEIGHT FALLS/ SHOULD SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION MID TO LATE MORNING MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF A BOWIE TO GLEN ROSE TO KILLEEN LINE. THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE LAYER SHEAR MAY
SUPPORT A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THREAT IN THE MORNING...SHOULD
STORMS DEVELOP.
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AS A 100 KT UPPER LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THE SOUTHERN TX
PANHANDLE AND A VORTICITY LOBE ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE MAIN
TROUGH OUT INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. DURING THIS TIME...THE DRYLINE
WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPEN NEAR THE BIG COUNTRY. THE STRONG
LIFT...DIURNAL HEATING...AND INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD ERODE
SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. VERY HIGH CAPE VALUES ON THE
ORDER OF 2500-3000 J/KG....MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 8
C/KM AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 45 TO 50 KNOTS
WILL EASILY SUPPORT A LARGE AND DAMAGING HAIL THREAT. AS THE
STORMS MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST...GENERALLY BEYOND A BOWIE TO
MINERAL WELLS TO WACO LINE THIS AFTERNOON...THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DRIER WHICH INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR
DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
WHILE TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS NEAR AND JUST EAST OF
THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON...THIS THREAT ACTUALLY INCREASES DURING
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE AND BACK IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN LARGE HODOGRAPHS WHILE CINH IS STILL LOW. AN ENHANCED
TORNADO RISK MAY DEVELOP ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES THAT WOULD
INCLUDE THE WACO/TEMPLE/KILLEEN AREAS.
UNLIKE MOST SEVERE EVENTS...WE EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO
FIRE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS
SITUATED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO FOSTER AN INCREASING
HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS CONTINUED ADVECTION OF WARM MOIST AIR INTO
THE REGION IS EXPECTED.
THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT ALL INTERESTS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
NEED TO PAY PARTICULARLY CLOSE ATTENTION TO WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY
AS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HIGH IMPACT SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
IN THE FORM OF LARGE HAIL...DESTRUCTIVE WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES.
&&
.LONG TERM...
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ON MONDAY AS THE
CLOSED LOW MEANDERS ACROSS THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
STALL OUT NEAR THE RED RIVER AND MAY EVEN DRIFT SOUTHWARD. STRONG
LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT WARM MOIST
AIR NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS. WITH THE LACK
OF A STRONG CAP...EXPECT WIDESPREAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY MITIGATE THE LARGER SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON
MONDAY...EXCEPT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE SOME HEATING WILL
BE POSSIBLE. PERHAPS THE LARGER THREAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN ON MONDAY AS PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TOWARDS
THE 1.15-1.25 INCH RANGE. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD
WATCHES PARTICULARLY FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES UNTIL WE GET CLOSER
TO THE EVENT. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD TAPER OFF BY TUESDAY MORNING AS
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND THE UPPER FORCING
DEPARTS THE REGION. COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AS THE
OMEGA PATTERN ESTABLISHES ITSELF. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN MAY BE
TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF MAY.
15-BAIN/TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 84 61 71 54 64 / 40 70 70 60 20
WACO, TX 85 65 76 54 67 / 50 60 50 40 10
PARIS, TX 83 57 67 53 62 / 30 70 70 70 30
DENTON, TX 83 60 67 52 64 / 40 70 70 60 20
MCKINNEY, TX 83 59 68 53 64 / 40 70 70 70 20
DALLAS, TX 85 61 70 54 64 / 40 70 70 60 20
TERRELL, TX 85 61 71 55 64 / 40 60 70 70 20
CORSICANA, TX 85 65 73 54 65 / 30 60 60 60 20
TEMPLE, TX 86 65 80 54 67 / 50 60 40 40 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 82 62 74 55 65 / 50 70 60 40 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
410 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
CONVECTION HAS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF CARBON COUNTY AND THE CHEYENNE
RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES UP FROM COLORADO.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST PROLIFIC OUT OVER SOUTHERN CARBON COUNTY AND
ARE QUITE THE LIGHTNING PRODUCERS. TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THIS AREA...WITH
LOW TO MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS AS STORMS MOVE OVERHEAD SO THINK
THAT SNOW LEVELS MAY BE A BIT HIGHER THAN 8000 FEET OVERALL. THE
STRENGTHENING INVERTED SFC TROUGH IS KEEPING THE COLD FRONT AT BAY
WHILE ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A SORT OF ZONAL
SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVERHEAD. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT BOTH FEATURES ARE
KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TEMPS FROM INVADING THE FORECAST
AREA FOR NOW. STILL EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION
ZONE MOVES OVERHEAD...WHICH WILL BRING IN COLDER AIR AND MAINTAIN
PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT ESPECIALLYALONG
THE LARAMIE RANGE AND WYO PLAINS. WILL SEE SNOW IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7500 FEET THIS EVENING DROPPING TO 6500 FEET
OVERNIGHT...AND SHOULD MIX DOWN EVEN LOWER AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT. WILL LEAVE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR NOW AS THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME FOR CONVECTION AND DEFORMATION
BAND TO ACCUMULATE SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE AND SNOWY RANGES
THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THE COMBINATION DEFORMATION BAND AND ALSO
SOME MERIDIONAL JET ENERGY SNEAKING IN FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT...COULD ALSO SEE UP TO 5 INCHES IN THE SIERRA MADRE AND
NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...WITH AN INCH OR LESS OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF S/E WYO WITH THE
COLD FRONT BY MONDAY MORNING. LIKELY TO SEE FOG OVERSPREAD THE
PLAINS IN THIS PATTERN AGAIN AS WELL...SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
FOR MONDAY...THE UPPER JET WILL WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS NORTH WITH THE
MIDLEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVERHEAD. WILL SEE SHOWERS CONTINUE ON AND
OFF THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE FAVORED LOCATIONS ALONG NORTHEAST
FACING SLOPES OF TERRAIN FEATURES. NOT LOOKING AT SIGNIFICANT CAA
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT SO TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING ENOUGH TO KEEP SNOW CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. IT
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SNOW MIX WITH RAIN AT TIMES
THOUGH EVEN ACROSS THE PLAINS AS 700MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND MINUS
4C THROUGH THE DAY.
CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
UPPER LOW. HIGHS SHOULD RETURN TO THE 50S/60S BY TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS CONTINUING. LOOKS LIKE DRY WEATHER SHOULD STAY WITH US
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST. PRETTY WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS 700MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AROUND +6C THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE FRONT INTO THE AREA AROUND 06Z
FRIDAY (THURSDAY NIGHT) WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRE RANGES.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL NEAR THE WYOMING/COLORADO BORDER
FRIDAY AND PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
PAINTING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD QPF ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS FRONT
OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. FREEZING LINE WELL
NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING...SO DO THINK MOST OF THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
IFR TO MVFR ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HRRR GUIDANCE USED FOR THE 18Z TAFS WHICH
SHOWS AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE STAYING IFR THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A LIFT TO MVFR OUT IN THE PANHANDLE FOR KAIA
AND KCDR AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY RAPID
DETERIORATION AFTER SUNSET WITH DENSE FOG DEVELOPING IN THE
PANHANDLE...PERSISTING INTO MONDAY LATE MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 410 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK AS A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW ARE EXPECTED INTO MONDAY. MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
BY MIDWEEK WITH DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TRENDING LOWER TOWARDS
THE 20 PERCENT RANGE ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT MONDAY FOR WYZ114-116.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...RJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1149 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1042 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES THIS MORNING NEAR THE WYO/COLO/NEB
BORDERS WITH LIGHT RAIN ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE PLAINS. AREAS OF FOG
WERE ALSO OBSERVED IN STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE CHEYENNE
RIDGE FROM SIDNEY TO SUMMIT...WITH PATCHY FOG FURTHER NORTH AS
WELL. HAVE NOT RECEIVED ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING ISSUES WITHIN THE
AREA OF MODERATE RAIN SO FAR...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AREA
AS PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER WEST
ACROSS CARBON AND PORTIONS OF ALBANY COUNTIES...SKIES WERE MOSTLY
CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE MORNING. CURRENT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING NORTH ACROSS
COLORADO...WITH CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS
AND POINTS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULD FIRE UP ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE CURRENT AREA OF ACTIVITY SHIFTS
NORTH...WITH CONVECTIVE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS WELL WHERE MID/LLVL LAPSE RATES ARE
BETWEEN 6 AND 8 C/KM WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY PRESENT. WILL SEE
A FEW TSTORMS AS WELL WITHIN THESE AREAS OF CONVECTION.
BASED ON THIS MORNINGS SOUNDINGS AND 700 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO
DECREASE A DEGREE OR TWO THRU THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE INCOMING
WAVE...THINK SNOW LEVELS TODAY WILL HOVER AROUND 8000 FEET ON
AVERAGE. THEY COULD DROP TO BETWEEN 7000 AND 7500 FEET IN AREAS OF
STRONGER CONVECTION THO. THE MORE PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
SET UP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH PERHAPS A BAND OF ACTIVITY
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CHEYENNE RIDGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW RATES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE SUMMIT...WITH
RAIN FURTHER EAST. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN GOOD SHAPE
FOR NOW...WITH MOST OF THE ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. DEFINITELY CAN SEE SOME CONVECTIVE SNOW REACHING THE
VALLEY FLOORS ACROSS ALBANY AND CARBON COUNTIES...WITH SOME
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ON GRASSY SURFACES AND ROADS NEAR
ARLINGTON/ELK MOUNTAIN TO RAWLINS IF HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTORMS MOVE
INTO THESE AREAS. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE LARAMIE
VALLEY...INCLUDING LARAMIE MAY SEE JUST ENOUGH DOWNSLOPE TO KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES LOWER BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS AND WILL
UPDATE THE FORECAST AS NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK WITH CURRENT KCYS RADAR LOOP
SHOWING MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...AND
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW WEST OF THE I25 CORRIDOR. THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN NOW APPEARS TO BE SNOWLEVELS...WHICH HAVE BEEN LOWER THAN
ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. THE I80 SUMMIT HAS BEEN
REPORTING SNOW AND LOW VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY SNOW FOR THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS. EVEN LARAMIE AIRPORT IS DOWN TO 35 DEGREES AND
HEAVY RAIN...SO SNOWLEVELS ARE LIKELY BETWEEN 7500 TO 8000 FEET BY
NOW. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LARGE AREA OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE THROUGH NOON SUNDAY OVER MOST OF THE HIGH PLAINS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. BELIEVE THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM DENVER TO THE SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL EXPAND NORTH AND WEST TODAY. WITH SNOW
STARTING TO ACCUMULATE ACROSS THE I80 SUMMIT...ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND SNOWY RANGES
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT 5 TO 10 INCHES OF WET SNOW
ACROSS THESE AREAS. ALTHOUGH SNOW ACCUMULATION ON THE ROADS MAY BE
LIMITED...BELIEVE THE COMBINATION OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO
SNOW AND FOG WILL MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS OVER THE I80 SUMMIT. IN
ADDITION...ANY ADDITIONAL COOLING AND HEAVY SNOW MAY CREATE SLICK
CONDITIONS ABOVE 7500 FEET. DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE SNOWING ALL THE
TIME...WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG IN BETWEEN PERIODS OF SNOWFALL DUE TO
MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW.
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...MODELS SHOW THE DEFORMATION BAND REMAINING
OVER AND JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A
CONTINUATION OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
SNOWLEVELS LOWER TO AROUND 6000 FEET BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THANKFULLY...PRECIP RATES DO NOT APPEAR VERY HIGH WITH THE
DEFORMATION BAND...SO EXPECT MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 6000 TO
7500 FEET. NOT COMPLETELY CONVINCED THAT THIS STORM WILL SLIP BY
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY MONDAY DUE TO THE STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST. WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS SYSTEM TO
SEE IF IT EVENTUALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO TEXAS. DID NOTE THAT THE
NEW GFS RUN HAS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW A BIT FURTHER
NORTH...AND ANY NORTHEAST DRIFT WILL RESULT IN MORE PRECIP THROUGH
MONDAY. GRADUALLY LOWERED POP THROUGH MONDAY...BUT KEPT A MENTION
OF SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WEAKENS. MODELS INDICATE A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
AXIS MOVING INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION FOR TUESDAY...RESULTING
IN TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR. KEPT POP BELOW 10 PERCENT ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD WILL BE WARM AND ON THE DRY SIDE. UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY MID WEEK.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY NICE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WEST
AND 70S INTO THE PLAINS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ALONG WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.
UPPER RIDGE WILL FOLD OVER INTO THE PLAINS BY THURSDAY WITH A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH SKIRTING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE A REMOTE POSSIBILITY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...BUT CURRENTLY THINKING THE MODELS ARE A BIT TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE...AS IT WILL LIKELY
SHEAR APART AS IT MOVES INTO THE RIDGE. AT ANY RATE...MOST PLACES
WILL STAY DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH BREEZY WEST FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE
AREA. DOWNSLOPING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WARMING ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A BIT COOLER FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT BUT CURRENTLY EXPECTING THE FRONT TO BE
WEAKER THAN THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING SO KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
IFR TO MVFR ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HRRR GUIDANCE USED FOR THE 18Z TAFS WHICH
SHOWS AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE STAYING IFR THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A LIFT TO MVFR OUT IN THE PANHANDLE FOR KAIA
AND KCDR AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY RAPID
DETERIORATION AFTER SUNSET WITH DENSE FOG DEVELOPING IN THE
PANHANDLE...PERSISTING INTO MONDAY LATE MORNING.
FOG AND LOW CEILINGS WITH RAIN WILL BE PREVALENT EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE INTO THE PLAINS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH
DENSE FOG POSSIBLY DEVELOPING LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS
PRECIPITATION BECOME LIGHT. LOW CEILINGS AND FOG MAY PERSIST WELL
INTO MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW ARE EXPECTED INTO MONDAY WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL TREND MUCH
HIGHER THIS WEEKEND WITH RECOVERIES NEAR 90 PERCENT...AND DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 60 TO 80 PERCENT. DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL TREND LOWER LATER NEXT WEEK...RANGING BETWEEN 25 TO 35
PERCENT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT MONDAY FOR WYZ114-116.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RJM
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...TJT