Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/15/15

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TUCSON AZ

900 PM MST TUE APR 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS EAST OF TUCSON ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT. A
STRONGER STORM SYSTEM DIGGING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
WILL BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALONG WITH MUCH
COOLER AIR. UNSEASONABLY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED ISOLATED 30-45 DBZ ECHOES OVER
NWRN COCHISE COUNTY VALID 0355Z. THESE ECHOES HAVE WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST 30 MINUTES. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED EWD ACROSS FAR SERN PIMA COUNTY EARLIER
THIS EVENING PRODUCED TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH
OF RAINFALL. MEASURABLE RAINFALL OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
OCCURRED FURTHER SOUTH IN EAST CENTRAL SANTA CRUZ COUNTY NEAR
PATAGONIA. A TRACE OF RAINFALL OCCURRED AT KTUS/KDMA/KOLS/KALK.

15/00Z UPPER AIR PLOTS DEPICTED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT EXTENDED
FROM NEAR FLAGSTAFF SWD TO JUST WEST OF TUCSON. THIS FEATURE IN
COMBINATION WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW AT 300 MB...AND A MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH LIFTED INDEX OF MINUS 2 AT KTWC...CONTRIBUTED
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THESE ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY DURING THE PAST HOUR INDICATED CLOUD TOPS TO BE WARMING EAST
OF TUCSON. 15/02Z RUC HRRR DEPICTED PRECIP ECHOES TO DISSIPATE BY
15/07Z. THUS...ANY REMAINING SHOWERS SHOULD END AROUND MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WRN
SECTIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE.

THE FOCUS OF ATTENTION WED THEN TURNS TOWARD A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS FROM LATE WED MORNING INTO EARLY WED
EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS COCHISE COUNTY.
THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING
MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.

PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 16/06Z.
ISOLATED -SHRA EAST AND SOUTH OF KTUS ENDING AROUND 15/06Z. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA/-SHRA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD. OTHERWISE...CLEAR
SKIES TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
SURFACE WIND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN
10 KTS. SURFACE WIND 15Z-17Z WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING WLY/SWLY AT 12-22 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

.FIRE WEATHER...FOR WEDNESDAY...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL SETTLE
OVER ARIZONA WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THE LATE MORNING
HOURS AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS STORM WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SPREAD DRIER AIR
ACROSS SE AZ DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A SHARP DROP OFF IN DEW
POINTS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

AS A RESULT OF THE STRONG WINDS AND DRYING AIR MASS...A RED FLAG
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. FOR FIRE ZONE
150...RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF AND SPORADIC ACROSS
MAINLY THE EASTERN PART OF THE ZONE AS WINDS WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER
OVERALL. FOR THE EASTERN ZONES...RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE WIND WILL BE STRONGER. HOWEVER...
THE AIR MASS IN THIS AREA WILL BE A BIT MORE MOIST AS THE DRY AIR IS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND WILL BE DELAYED.

THE STORM SYSTEM IS A SLOW MOVER AND WILL RESULT IN BREEZY WESTERLY
WIND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW AREAS MAY APPROACH RED FLAG
CRITERIA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MUCH COOLER. FRIDAY WILL STILL BE BREEZY BUT A LITTLE LESS SO. THEN
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MORE TYPICAL
WINDS. CERNIGLIA

.PREV DISCUSSION /228 PM MST/...MODELS DEPICT A SYSTEM ENTERING THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA LATE WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACKING VERY SLOWING
EASTWARD THROUGH NEW MEXICO INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIND
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
START TOMORROW AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE FOUR CORNERS. A RED FLAG
WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR TOMORROW.
OTHERWISE...A FEW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STORM...MAINLY THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS THIS WEEK. THE MAIN STORY AFTER THE WIND WILL BE THE
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS MUCH AS 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MORE IMPORTANTLY...A POSSIBLE LATE SEASON
FREEZE IN COLDEST EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT CAN BE ANTICIPATED. THIS MAY INCLUDE SOME AGRICULTURAL AREAS
OF COCHISE COUNTY SUCH AS SULPHUR SPRINGS VALLEY.

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES AZZ150-151...NORTHERN PORTIONS OF AZZ152...
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF AZZ153.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PHOENIX AZ

750 PM MST TUE APR 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
ARIZONA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN ARIZONA. WINDS WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL ALSO LEAD TO MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES...DIPPING BELOW
THE NORMAL BY THURSDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL START FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

.DISCUSSION...
A SEASONABLY DEEP PV ANOMALY AND ROBUST HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT WERE
DIVING INTO SWRN UTAH EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHING TOWARDS THE I-40 CORRIDOR IN NW ARIZONA. STEEP POST
FRONTAL SFC PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 2 MB/HR WERE ALLOWING A
STEADY PROGRESSION OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH DEEP COLD DRY ADVECTION
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AIDING IN VERY STRONG NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS.
AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF
BLOWING DUST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND OBSERVATIONS HAVE SUPPORTED
LARGE AREAS OF RESTRICTED VISIBILITIES OF 1-3 MILES.

BASED ON FRONTAL TIMING PER SATELLITE IMAGERY...HAVE MOVED UP THE
TIME OF THE WIND ADVISORY IN THE FAR NWRN CWA BY 3 HOURS AS
OBSERVATIONS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE COMMONLY REACHED
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS (AND THIS SHOULD ONLY BE EXACERBATED BY
TOPOGRAPHY IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND ENHANCEMENT BY A
DEVELOPING NORTHERLY LLJ). ALSO...INCREASED THE WORDING OF BLOWING
DUST IN THESE AREAS GIVEN UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...MADE
SOME HOURLY ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWER DEWPOINTS LATER TONIGHT...THOUGH
STILL MAY NOT HAVE GONE LOW ENOUGH GIVEN SOME OF THE POST FRONTAL
READINGS CURRENTLY BELOW 0F. REGARDLESS...LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF
VERY BREEZY WEATHER WITH MULTIPLE IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/152 PM MST TUE APR 14 2015/
RESIDUAL MOISTURE BELOW 600 MB IS APPARENT ACROSS SE AZ IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH ACROSS NM WHILE MODEL DEPICTIONS OF THIS MOISTURE HAVE
VARIED CONSIDERABLY. EARLIER RUNS OF THE HRRR HAD SUGGESTED THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA BUT THE LATEST RUNS
HAVE CORRECTLY TRENDED EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST SATELLITE
SHOWS CU DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN PIMA COUNTY AND POPS WERE LOWERED
ACROSS PINAL COUNTY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. FOCUS FOR THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AZ...WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER...STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT IS STRONGER OFF TO THE WEST
CLOSER TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP
WILL ONLY BE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE BRUNT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INITIALLY AFFECT AREAS WELL NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A DRY COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES
THROUGH SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA BEGINNING TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING WEDNESDAY. VERY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MOST NOTABLY
FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. THUS A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE
AREAS. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST/SAND WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. VERY DRY
AIR WILL ALSO BE USHERED IN AND THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS UPGRADED
TO A RED FLAG WARNING. SEE W/W/A SECTION BELOW FOR TIMING AND
AFFECTED ZONES. THE MODELS DEPICT THE UPPER TROUGH...INITIALLY
CENTERED WELL TO OUR NORTH...TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD AND BECOMING A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/FOUR CORNERS AREA. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO HAVE IT CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION.
LATEST GEM IS MORE CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH ECMWF. THOSE MODELS ARE
GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE ECMWF
AND GEM SOLUTIONS HAVING THE COLD CORE CLOSER TO OUR FORECAST AREA.
MEANWHILE...VORT LOBES/JET STREAKS ROTATE AROUND THE LOW.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE AVAILABILITY OVER OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE QUITE
MEAGER SO HELD OFF ON INTRODUCING POPS. THERE WILL BE AT LEAST
LINGERING BREEZINESS...WINDY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ONE OF
THOSE VORT LOBES PUSHING THROUGH. BIGGEST BENEFIT OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AT LEAST A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AND HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES REBOUND. ACCORDINGLY...A
WARMING TREND BEGINS FRIDAY WITH HIGHS BACK TO THE LOW 90S ON THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS BY SUNDAY. WEAK UNDERCUTTING OF THE RIDGE OVER THE
WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK KEEPS TEMPS FLAT.

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS WEST WINDS WEAKENING THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A REVERSAL TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION OR
BECOMING VARIABLE FOR A PERIOD AROUND SUNRISE THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING IS ONLY MODEST. WEST WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE
WEDNESDAY OBTAINING FREQUENT GUSTS 20-30KT BY THE AFTERNOON.
SLANTWISE VISIBILITIES WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COMPROMISED WITH
SUSPENDED DUST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT WITH LLJ AXIS
DIRECTED THROUGH THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY PROVIDING PERIODIC GUSTS
OVER 30KT AT KBLH. PERIODS OF LOWER SFC VISIBILITIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH SLANTWISE VISIBILITIES JUST AS POOR WITH SUSPENDED
DUST. KIPL WILL SEE HIGHER GUSTS 25-30KT DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH
WINDS VEERING TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THE MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF WIND SPEED INCREASES AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS
IS MODERATE.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH
SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER AIR ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS PATTERN
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM...AND SURFACE CONDITIONS DRY. ANTICIPATE
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...DAYTIME HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS...WITH WIDESPREAD POOR TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY IN
MANY AREAS.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 9 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR AZZ131>133.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR AZZ025-026.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR
AZZ020-021.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ231.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ033.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
CAZ030>032.

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DISCUSSION...MO
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIRSCH/AJ
AVIATION....MO
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PHOENIX AZ

235 PM MST MON APR 13 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

.SYNOPSIS... AFTER ANOTHER WARM DAY TUESDAY...A CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN ARIZONA. WINDS WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS STRONG OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
ALSO LEAD TO MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES...DIPPING BELOW NORMAL.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A WARMING TREND
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.DISCUSSION... LATEST RAP STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LOW
ACROSS NM WITH A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE ACROSS ACROSS AZ. SKIES ARE SUNNY
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 3 TO 5
DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE OBSERVED THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE ABOVE-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL DROP INTO THE GREAT BASIN
TUESDAY...RESULTING IN A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS JTNP. FURTHER
SOUTH NEAR CASA GRANDE AND TOWARDS TUCSON...A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING
ARE ANTICIPATED. BIGGEST IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE COOLER
AND WINDY CONDITIONS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE AREA...PARTICULARLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING
DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A WINDY DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AS A VORT
MAX DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH UT AND HELPS TO DEEPEN THE TROUGH INTO A
CLOSED LOW WHILE DRIVING IT SOUTHWARD. ECMWF ENSEMBLE SPREAD REMAINS
RELATIVELY HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH THIS VARIABILITY WILL NOT
MEAN MUCH IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT
WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER...DRIER AND WINDY.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WITH THE STRONG WINDS...ADDED A MENTION OF
BLOWING DUST TO THE FORECASTS. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA BUT STILL BREEZY TO WINDY IN THE AFTERNOON.
ALSO ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY DUST FOR PORTIONS OF PINAL COUNTY. IN
ADDITION TO THE WINDS...THE FRONT ALSO USHERS IN VERY DRY AIR. HIGH
TEMPS WILL DROP 10-15 DEGREES OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY AND 7-10 DEGREES OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. MEANWHILE TO OUR NORTH ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS AND BECOMES A CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR SALT LAKE CITY. THIS
IS IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPSTREAM ROSSBY WAVE PATTERN
AS WELL AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGING.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW SAGS SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS. FOR
INSTANCE...THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FURTHER WEST WITH IT THAN THE GFS.
THE ECMWF THUS BRINGS THE COLD CORE CLOSER TO OUR EASTERN
AREAS...MAINLY GILA COUNTY. BUT WITH SO MUCH DRY AIR TO
OVERCOME...CAPE LOOKS MEAGER AND WOULD LIKELY BE CONFINED TO
RIM/WHITE MOUNTAINS AND NORTH. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL
COOLING FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ON THE LOWER
DESERTS IN THE 70S. THERE WILL ALSO BE LINGERING BREEZINESS. THE LOW
SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH RISING
HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WITH HIGHS BOUNCING BACK UP TO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S OVER THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GENERALLY 10KT OR LESS AT ALL
TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z TUESDAY MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...
DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND...AND WITH VERY LITTLE
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE NO PRECIPITATION...JUST SOME
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THROUGH FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND. EXPECT FAIR/POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES DURING THE
PERIOD.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR AZZ131-132.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR CAZ231.

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DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION....MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PHOENIX AZ

200 PM MST MON APR 13 2015

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL TAF SITES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. NO WEATHER-RELATED AVIATION
IMPACTS EXPECTED.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH UTAH AND INTO ARIZONA
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...USHERING IN MUCH DRIER AIR ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS. THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST ARIZONA
WILL SEE THE MOST CRITICAL CONDITIONS AND FIRE WEATHER WATCHES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HOW QUICKLY
THE DRY AIR WILL ARRIVE IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. AT THIS POINT IT
APPEARS THE DRY AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL WINDS BEGIN TO WEAKEN
WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT THERE COULD CERTAINLY BE SOME ISOLATED AREAS
WHERE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ARE REALIZED. DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. EXPECT FAIR/POOR OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR AZZ131-132.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR CAZ231.

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DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION....LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO

940 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2015

RED FLAG WARNINGS WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
HAVE REACHED ABOVE 15% IN MANY LOCATIONS AND WILL CONTINUE TO RISE
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO SURFACE FROM OUTFLOW OF
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2015

STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS UTAH
EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL BE PUSHING IN OUR EASTERN UTAH ZONES
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND INTO FAR WESTERN COLORADO AROUND 9 PM
THIS EVENING. STRONG SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT AND CURRENT WIND HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH 3 AM REMAIN ON TRACK.
LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS EXCEEDING 60 MPH STILL
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN UTAH AND FAR NORTHWEST
COLORADO AND NO ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGHLIGHTS NEEDED ATTM. FEW HIGH
BASED SHOWERS WILL ADD TO GUST POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS EVENING.
PEAK GUSTS SO FAR THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN IN THE 50 TO 59 MPH RANGE
AND GENERALLY CONFINED TO OUR EAST CENTRAL UTAH ZONES.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2015

THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER EASTERN
NEVADA PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS WITH
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAVING ALREADY CROSSED THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF UTAH. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHEAST AND
EAST-CENTRAL UTAH BY 00Z...THEN CROSS INTO WESTERN COLORADO DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG WINDS HAVE MATERIALIZED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO ZONES WITH
MANY REPORTS OF GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...REMAINING GUSTY ON BOTH SIDES OF THE COLD FRONT.
GOING WIND HIGHLIGHTS LOOK GOOD AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT.

SOME CUMULUS BLOWUPS ARE CURRENTLY SEEN ON SATELLITE ALTHOUGH NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT AS OF YET. SOME PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO FILL IN MORE BEHIND THE FRONT. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER QUICKLY WITH HIGHER VALLEYS STARTING TO SEE A THREAT OF
SNOW LATE TONIGHT.

HOWEVER...THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PINCH OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW
TONIGHT WHICH WILL SLOW ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND WEAKEN THE
FRONT AS IT CONTINUES THROUGH THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AS SUCH...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS/RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
VERY SIGNIFICANT. THE LOW CENTER WILL REMAIN NEAR THE
UTAH/COLORADO BORDER TOMORROW BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA BY TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER
OVER THE AREA TOMORROW.

WITH MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERING BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT MAX
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW 25-30 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS MANY AREAS. THIS
COOLER AIR WILL ALSO BRING A POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW NIGHT. A FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2015

THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF/GEM
SOLUTION REGARDING THE CLOSED LOW...WITH CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG
THE GFS ENSEMBLES. HAVE SIDED MORE IN LINE WITH THE EC/GEM WHICH
KEEPS THE LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH FRIDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS GRADUALLY TRENDS WARMER DURING THIS
TIME...MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP A THREAT
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...MOSTLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY HEAVY DUE TO
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW BUT LONG DURATION OF THE EVENT COULD LEAD TO
SEVERAL INCHES LOCALLY. MOUNTAINS FARTHER SOUTH SUCH AS THE SAN
JUANS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LOW AND RESULTING WEAKER FLOW COULD
ALLOW FOR BETTER ACCUMULATIONS.

THE LOW WILL FINALLY EXIT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND YIELD TO A
SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THIS TIME AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH WEAK RIPPLES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 411 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2015

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN WINDS IS EXPECTED
DURING THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH DURING
THE VERY LATE EVENING/EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE FRONT WILL CAUSE
WINDS TO ABRUPTLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST...WITH STRONG GUSTS
CONTINUING FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT.

PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE...BECOMING ALL SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. PERIODS OF IFR
CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT MOVE OVER THE
TAF SITES.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 411 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING STRONG WINDS TO
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL REACH NORTHEASTERN UTAH LATER THIS
EVENING...ARRIVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. EXPECT A SUBSTANTIAL DROP IN TEMPERATURES WILL THIS FRONT
ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ002-003-006>008-
011-020-021.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ001-006.

FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR COZ001-006-011.

UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ023-025-028.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ022-024-027-
029.

FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR UTZ022-024-027-029.

UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM...LC
AVIATION...MT
FIRE WEATHER...CK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO

701 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2015

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 411 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2015

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 411 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2015

A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 9PM
FOR ALL WESTERN COLORADO ZONES BELOW 8000 FEET.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING STRONG WINDS TO MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
REACH NORTHEASTERN UTAH LATER THIS EVENING...ARRIVING ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL COLORADO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT A SUBSTANTIAL DROP IN
TEMPERATURES WILL THIS FRONT ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COOLER AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ002-003-006>008-
011-020-021.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ001-006.

FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR COZ001-006-011.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ200>203-205-
207-290-292.

UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ023-025-028.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ022-024-027-
029.

FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR UTZ022-024-027-029.

UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM...LC
AVIATION...MT
FIRE WEATHER...CK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAUNTON MA

1021 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL MOVE OVERNIGHT AND LAST INTO
THURSDAY. ONE DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY...THEN A
COLD FRONT CROSSES ON SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS ON
SUNDAY. A MIDWEST SYSTEM FORMS SUNDAY AND SWINGS UP THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY. THIS MAY BRING RAIN TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SOMETIME ON PATRIOTS DAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

10 PM UPDATE...

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION DENOTED BY LOCAL
OBSERVATIONS AND ACCOMPANYING WIND-SHIFTS...AND ALSO WITHIN RADAR
DATA AS FINE-SCATTERERS ARE PUSHED S OF THE REGION. WILL SEE A DRY
AND QUIET FORECAST PERIOD. MAYBE A SHOWER CLIPPING NANTUCKET AT
THE WORST. CLOUDS LINGERING INTO MORNING BEHIND THE MAIN MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE AS ECHOED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER.

HIGH CLOUDS OBSCURING SATELLITES FROM EFFECTIVELY OBSERVING LOW-
CLOUD / FOG THAT COULD BE AN ISSUE. HRRR SUGGESTS ONSHORE LOW-
CLOUDS / FOG FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. ALREADY NANTUCKET HAS
FALLEN TO 2 MILES OF VISIBILITY AT TIMES. ASSUME THE ADVECTIVE
S-FLOW OF HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE COOLER WATERS IS LENDING TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOUPY CONDITIONS. ADVECTIVE FLOW IS WEAK AND
WOULD EXPECT TO BE POTENTIALLY SCOURED BY THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FOLLOWED BY NORTHERLY FLOW. AM ONLY EXPECTING SOME
VISIBILITY ISSUES FOR THE FAR S/SE SHORELINE OF MASSACHUSETTS.

SOME SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS TO THE DEWPOINTS...BUT TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ON TRACK. LOWS DOWN TO AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-30S.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
ANY LEFTOVER CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OFF THE S COAST SHOULD PUSH
OFFSHORE WED. BEYOND THIS...EXPECT LARGE HIGH PRES TO BUILD E OUT
OF THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL CANADA WITH DRY CONDITIONS. MAY SEE
SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE WORKING S IN THE UPPER FLOW
AROUND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY CAUSE N-NW WINDS TO PICK UP A
BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 20 KT MAINLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER-MID 60S EXCEPT 55
TO 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE WED NIGHT...THOUGH A FEW CLOUDS MAY
BEGIN TO MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE STARTS TO
CREST ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN PLACE FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND TEMPS THAT MAY FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR BELOW
FREEZING ESPECIALLY IN THE NORMALLY SUSCEPTIBLE INLAND LOCATIONS
AND VALLEYS. EXPECT TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S
WELL INLAND TO THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

BIG PICTURE...SHORTWAVE RIDGES AND TROUGHS IN AN OTHERWISE ZONAL
FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSES NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY WHILE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. CUTOFF LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A SHORTWAVE OVER
WESTERN CANADA WILL MERGE SUNDAY AND CARVE OUT A TROUGH OVER THE
MIDWEST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE LONG RANGE MODELS REGARDING THE WEEKEND COLD
FRONT AND THE SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS 12 HOURS SLOWER
BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT THEN 6-9
HOURS FASTER BRINGING RAIN INTO THE REGION ON PATRIOTS DAY MONDAY.
THE GFS IS LEADING THE PACK...ENOUGH TO FAVOR A BLEND THAT GOES
LIGHT ON GFS DATA.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY... HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S. THE HIGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST BY EVENING SO
WE EXPECT SOME INCREASING AFTERNOON CIRRUS. OVERALL...A FINE DAY
WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS...EXCEPT SEA BREEZES NEAR THE COAST.
TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER SUPPORT UPPER 50S EARLY
AFTERNOON AND LOWER 60S TOWARD EVENING. LOOKS LIKE A RACE BETWEEN
THE WARM ADVECTION AND THE SUN ANGLE FOR MAX SURFACE TEMP. WE
STARTED WITH A BLEND AND THEN BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP 3F...50S NEAR THE
COAST AND 60-65 INLAND. LOW DEW POINTS AND LIGHT WIND SHOULD ALLOW
NIGHTTIME TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... ONE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WEAK LIFT
AND LIMITED MOISTURE. A SHARPER SHORTWAVE WITH JET SUPPORT SWINGS
ACROSS FROM ONTARIO ON SATURDAY. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN
BELOW 1 INCH ON FRIDAY BUT CLIMB ABOVE AN INCH ON SATURDAY. WILL GO
WITH CHANCE POPS BOTH DAYS...WITH A LITTLE MORE QPF FORECAST ON
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY... CANADA HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. DEW POINTS
WILL DROP BACK TO AROUND FREEZING WHILE TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER WILL BE 0-1C. EXPECT MAX SFC TEMPS AROUND 60 OR THE
LOWER 60S...SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY. COULD HAVE GUSTY NORTH
WINDS ESPECIALLY ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. FAIR SKIES AT NIGHT BUT
WITH SOME INCREASE IN SKY COVER AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE TOO-
PROGRESSIVE GFS BRINGS PCPN INTO ALL OF OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
BUT THIS IS COUNTER TO THE REMAINING GUIDANCE. WE WILL HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CT-RI- WESTERN MASS TOWARD MORNING IN
RECOGNITION OF THE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES.

PATRIOTS DAY AND TUESDAY...MIDWEST SYSTEM MOVES UP OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WITH A SECONDARY LOW FORMING ALONG THE CAROLINAS AND MOVING
NORTHEAST UP THE COAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST AT
1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL FOR APRIL.
ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS A WET PERIOD EARLY IN THE WEEK. AS NOTED...WE
HAVE FAVORED THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE ECMWF GROUP AND MINIMIZED THE
FASTER TIMING OF THE GFS. THIS BRINGS CHANCE POPS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRIER AIR AND SOME CLEARING ON
TUESDAY. TIMING FOR THIS RAIN FROM ONE MODEL RUN TO THE NEXT WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY.

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

3Z UPDATE...

MONITORING MVFR/IFR IMPACTS WITH FOG ACROSS THE CAPE / ISLAND
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE VFR. MID-HIGH CLOUD LINGERS TOWARDS MORNING.
LIGHT / VRB FLOW OVERNIGHT...BECOMING GUSTY OUT OF THE N/NW 20 KTS
DURING THE DAY. PERHAPS AN NE-ONSHORE FLOW FOR SE NEW ENGLAND BY
MIDDAY CONCLUDING INTO EVENING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. SEA BREEZES
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR BUT WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE...VFR.

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

TONIGHT...EXPECT SW WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS REMAIN WELL BELOW 5
FT. MAY SEE BRIEF PERIOD OF E-SE WINDS AROUND 10 KT OVERNIGHT ON
THE FAR SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT N-NW WINDS REMAINING 10 KT
OR LESS WED...BECOMING N WED NIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ON THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS. HAVE ISSUED SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS DUE TO PERIOD OF SOUTH SWELLS UP TO
5 FT LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. SEA BREEZES
POSSIBLE NEAR SHORE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST
OF THE WATERS. WINDS BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 25 KNOTS. SEAS REMAIN 1 TO 3 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AFTER WHICH
WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BUT REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS. A 5 TO 7 FOOT
SWELL MOVES UP FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY INTO OUT
SOUTHERN WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AT THAT TIME.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW
ENGLAND. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST 20-25 KNOTS
ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING AS THE HIGH APPROACHES. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON. THE 5 TO 7 FOOT SWELL SHOULD LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY. THE NEED FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY CONTINUE.

.FIRE WEATHER...

THERE HAS BEEN A PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...
WHICH HAS ALLOWED SMALL FINE FUEL FIRES TO IGNITE OVER THE LAST
FEW DAYS. AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES...VERY DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT. NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS MAY APPROACH 20 KT DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

AFTER COORDINATIONS...WE HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY
FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE MARGINAL WIND
CONDITIONS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE
CONDITIONS AND... IF FORECASTED WIND CONDITIONS CHANGE...THE MID
SHIFT MAY ISSUE HEADLINES.

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM TO 11 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/SIPPRELL/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT
FIRE WEATHER...WFO BOX STAFF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TALLAHASSEE FL

820 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

THE 8 PM EDT REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT FROM OFF THE TX COAST THROUGH NORTHERN AL. OUR FORECAST AREA
WAS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE, WITH
UNUSUALLY HIGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE WAS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE AND
ASSOCIATED AREA OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION TRANSLATING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST AL. THOUGH THE STORMS
APPEARED TO BE WEAKENING, THE LATEST HRRR MANAGES TO BRING SOME OF
THE RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM INTO TALLAHASSEE AND SOUTHWEST GA LATE
TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL END EARLIER TO OUR WEST.

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY] LIGHT TO MODERATE RA, AND OCCASIONAL +TSRA,
WILL AFFECT KDHN, KECP, AND KABY THROUGH 4Z. SOME OF THIS RAIN MAY
REACH KTLH BY AROUND 6Z. IFR CIGS AND PATCHY FOG ARE LIKELY AT THE
TERMINALS WHERE THE RAIN ENDS QUICKLY THIS EVENING, MAINLY KDHN
AND KECP, AS WELL AS AT KVLD WHERE THE RAIN IS LIKELY TO REACH.
ELSEWHERE WE EXPECT MVFR CIGS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR
THEN VFR FROM MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH A CHANCE OF
TSRA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.PREV DISCUSSION [334 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH
A LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THE SOUTHEAST US WILL REMAIN UNDER
RIDGE WITH ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE. POPS WILL BE IN
THE CHANCE TO LIKELY CATEGORY. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED, SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 80S AND LOW TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...
THE LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST DURING THE PERIOD.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS TO WHEN THIS
WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. THE GFS HAS THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE EURO HAS IT ON MONDAY
NIGHT. BOTH MODELS SHOW A TRANSITION TO A DRIER PERIOD BEHIND THE
TROUGH. POPS WILL BE IN THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AND AROUND 30 PERCENT ON MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE
60S.

.MARINE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3
FEET INCREASING TO 4 FEET ON SATURDAY.

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RATHER WET...SUMMERLIKE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK.

.HYDROLOGY...

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE RESULTED IN SOME SHARP
RISES ON THE CHIPOLA RIVER WITH RISES ALSO NOTED ON THE
CHOCTAWHATCHEE, PEA AND SHOAL RIVERS. FOR THE MOST PART, AREA
RIVERS WILL REMAIN BELOW ACTION STAGE. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM JUST A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST BIG
BEND TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES. THESE
TOTALS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON AREA
RIVERS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE 71 82 68 83 67 / 50 60 50 60 40
PANAMA CITY 72 78 68 79 69 / 60 60 40 60 40
DOTHAN 69 81 65 80 64 / 80 70 50 60 50
ALBANY 69 81 65 78 62 / 60 70 60 60 50
VALDOSTA 70 83 65 82 65 / 40 70 60 60 40
CROSS CITY 71 85 67 83 67 / 20 60 40 60 30
APALACHICOLA 73 80 71 81 71 / 50 50 40 60 30

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...WOOL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON SC

714 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND WILL
GRADUALLY ADVANCE INTO OR THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL STRENGTHEN
THURSDAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. THE TROUGH WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST UP THE COAST FRIDAY...BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT
POSSIBLY AFFECTS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED
TO DEVELOP ALONG AN ARC OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW APPROACHING THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER FROM THE S/SW. THIS OUTFLOW REGIME SHOULD INTERACT
WITH THE SEA BREEZE TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-16 THIS EVENING. THE 18Z NAM AND TO LESSER EXTENT
THE MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE RUC13 SUGGEST THAT MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES PUSHING FARTHER NORTH INTO THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND/OR
FARTHER NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST COULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION WELL INTO TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO REMAINS
LOW...AS DIURNAL STABILIZATION COULD TRANSLATE TO DISSIPATING
CONVECTION IF MASS/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS NOT SUSTAINED.
STARTED EVENING FORECASTS WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS SOUTH TAPERED TO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE...THEN POPS DECREASE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT CONVECTION
LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL POPS ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED.

THE CHANCE FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND/OR AN ISOLATED
PULSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS NON-ZERO BUT WILL REMAIN VERY LOW
THIS EVENING.

MEANWHILE...A SURFACE COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTHERN NC EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING COULD APPROACH FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT.
THUS...POPS RAMP UP SOMEWHAT NORTH/INLAND LATE...BUT MOST IMPACTS
FROM THIS FRONT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA ALTHOUGH SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL STRUGGLE TO
PUSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH...POSSIBLY ONLY MAKING IT TO NEAR THE
SAVANNAH RIVER. EITHER WAY THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE HEAVY AS
PWATS POTENTIALLY APPROACH 2 INCHES. THUS...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE HEAVIER CONVECTION TRAINS OVER THE SAME
AREAS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN WIDESPREAD FLOODING AT THIS TIME
MOSTLY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY. TEMPS
SHOULD PUSH INTO THE 70S AND MAYBE THE 80S ESPECIALLY OVER GEORGIA
ASSUMING THE FRONT DOES NOT MAKE IT THAT FAR SOUTH. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THE FRONT SHOULD MAKE MORE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS GIVEN THE MORE
FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE NORTHEAST.
STILL THINK RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL WITH THE FRONT
NEARBY.

THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE OFFSHORE TROUGH WITH
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING INLAND. DEEP MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ALOFT WILL KEEP HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE FORECAST. COULD SEE SOME DRYING LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT MUCH DEPENDS ON THE TIMING/LOCATION OF DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE.

FRIDAY...SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART WITH TEMPS GETTING BACK TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY EVEN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY INCONSISTENT IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD SO
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW. A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH
THE REGION BEFORE POSSIBLY PUSHING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ELEVATED
MOISTURE AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP HIGHER
THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ODDS FAVOR VFR THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE PROBABILITY FOR
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN LOWERING CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT. A MUCH HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR MVFR OR
LOWER CEILINGS...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY PERIODS OF LOW VISIBILITY
WITHIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS A COLD FRONTADVANCES
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. PREVAILING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL
DEVELOP EARLIEST AT KCHS THEN WILL SPREAD INTO KSAV WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND LOW
PRESSURE OFFSHORE...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING MVFR/IFR CIGS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO...BREEZY N/NE
WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY.

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE...RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY WINDS AT OR BELOW
15 KTS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD MAKE A GRADUAL
SHIFT...BECOMING MORE WEST AHEAD A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT
APPROACHES NORTHERN SC WATERS LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL REMAIN
2-3 FT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS BEGINNING
LATER WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND A COLD
FRONT WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INLAND AND A TROUGH AND LIKELY EVENTUAL LOW PRESSURE TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST. COULD SEE ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY SPREADING
SOUTHWARD AT LEAST INTO THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS THURSDAY...BUT
MUCH DEPENDS ON THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND RESULTING STRENGTH
OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER
OFFSHORE.

RIP CURRENTS...STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES
THURSDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE AND ENHANCED RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS INTO FRIDAY.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COMBINATION OF ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES AND LEFTOVER NORTHEAST
WINDS/SWELL WILL RESULT IN A THREAT FOR SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING
NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING...PERHAPS
EXTENDING INTO THE SATURDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE.

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB/SPR
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...RJB/SPR
MARINE...DPB/RJB/SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

115 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1251 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL
GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN THE MID 60S AND LOW 70S. FAIR WEATHER AND
HIGHS IN THE 60S RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

A VIGOROUS UPPER MIDWEST MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKING NORTHEAST
INTO NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL FORCE A TRAILING COLD FRONT ESE
THROUGH WESTERN ZONES LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON...AND AREAS
EAST OF I-69 BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. PRE-FRONTAL COMPOSITE OUTFLOW
FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION AND THIS PRIMARY SFC CDFNT LOOKS TO OUTRUN
BETTER MID-UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS STRONGER MID LEVEL PV ADVECTION
PASSES NNW OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS (SEE 00Z AREA RAOBS) AND UNCERTAINTIES
REGARDING EXACT TIMING REMAIN THE MAIN REASONS FOR NOT BUMPING
POPS SIGNIFICANTLY...ALTHOUGH UPSTREAM MOSAIC RADAR TRENDS,
RELATIVELY SHARP/DEEP CONVERGENCE WITH FRONTAL CIRC, AND AMPLE
MOISTURE IN NARROW PRE-FRONTAL THETA-E RIDGE (850 MB DEWPOINTS TO
10C) SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCT-NUM COVERAGE ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL FEATURES. CONVERGENCE DOES WEAKEN AS IT
TRANSLATES INTO AREAS ALONG/EAST OF I-69 THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD BE OFFSET BY GROWING BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION AS SFC
DEWPOINTS PUSH INTO THE 50S AND SFC AMBIENT TEMPS ATTEMPT A RUN AT
THE LOW-MID 70S. CLOUD COVER AND WARM PROFILE ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT
MLCAPE TO NEAR 500 J/KG AND UPDRAFT STRENGTH. AS A RESULT NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN AN ISO STRONG STORM (ISOLATED WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH/SMALL HAIL) WITH ANY BL ROOTED CONVECTION THAT
FIRES THIS AFTERNOON IN NW OH. AS FOR EARLY-MID MORNING...APPROACHING
PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN/THIN BY THE TIME
IT REACHES DRIER AIR IN NW IN/SW LOWER MI. HOWEVER...DID RETAIN
LIKELY POPS (USING LATEST HRRR PROJECTIONS FOR TIMING) AND ADDED A
THUNDER MENTION BACK IN GIVEN RESPECTABLE MOISTURE FLUX/THETA-E
SURGE TIMED WITH 40-50 KT LLJ LIFT INTO THE LOWER LAKES.
OTHERWISE...MODEST SHOT OF POST FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION AND OVERSPREAD
OF DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL SUPPORT A QUIET/CLEAR/COOLER
PERIOD TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

A RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD ON TUESDAY
IN WAKE OF DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. RE-AMPLIFICATION OF MID/UPPER
LEVEL WAVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED LATER TUESDAY AS MORE SIGNIFICANT
EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH REACHES WEST COAST...ALLOWING FOR
AMPLIFICATION OF CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGING. DRY LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW WILL PERSIST FOR LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF SFC ANTICYCLONE SHIFTING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DOWNSTREAM OF WEAK CUT-OFF PV ANOMALY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THAT WILL BE VERY SLOWLY TRACKING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE
MIDDLE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH A BIT COOLER NEAR THE LAKE
WHERE SOME ONSHORE FLOW COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.

EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY
KEEPING A DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS ANCHORED ACROSS THE REGION. LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO VEER MORE SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
AFOREMENTIONED WEAK PV ANOMALY FINALLY GETS NUDGED BY MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WESTERN CONUS TROUGH TAKING SHAPE. WHILE ISENTROPIC
ASCENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...AN AXIS OF FAIRLY
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TIED TO WIND DIRECTIONAL
CONVERGENCE MAY PRECEDE THIS WEAK PV ANOMALY AND HAVE MADE LITTLE IF
ANY CHANGE TO PREVIOUS CHANCE RAIN SHOWER POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CHANCE POPS WERE ALSO CONTINUED INTO THURSDAY WITH WEAK UPPER VORT
MAX FINALLY TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA COINCIDING WITH BRIEF DURATION
OF SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES. SOME ISOLD THUNDER IS A
POSSIBILITY ON THURSDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE DUE
TO EXPECTED MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK NATURE OF FORCING.

FOR FRI-SUN...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE CONVERGED SOMEWHAT ON THE
TREND OF THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL CYCLES IN A MORE CUT-OFF EVOLUTION TO
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH...WITH NOW SUGGESTIONS THAT FORCING
WITH THIS CUT-OFF WAVE MAY NOT REACH LOCAL AREA UNTIL LATE WEEKEND
OR MONDAY WHEN A POTENTIAL OF BETTER PHASING MAY EXIST WITH MORE
PRONOUNCED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. FOR THIS REASON...MOST OF WEEKEND
PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT. ONE WILDCARD IN THIS FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL OF ANY
STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM WAVES THAT COULD FORCE WEAK SFC TROUGHS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SOME TIME IN THE SATURDAY-SUNDAY
PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP IS TOO LOW FOR
MENTIONABLE POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WITH STRONGER BAROCLINICITY
FOR THIS PERIOD TIED TO NORTHERN STREAM...DAY TO DAY THERMAL
ADVECTIONS SHOULD REMAIN WEAK FOR LOCAL AREA WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS
FOR MID-LATE APRIL CONTINUING.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015

COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING MAINLY
-SHRA TO KFWA TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME NW BEHIND
THE FRONT AND STILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN 25KT GUSTS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET
DIMINISHING WINDS TO LT 10KTS. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...LOGSDON

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

534 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1251 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO CLEAR KSBN BTW 16-18Z AND KFWA BTW 18-19Z.
SHOWERS/ISO THUNDER AND THE CHANCE FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF A HIGH
MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN NARROW/CONVERGENT PRE-
FRONTAL PLUME OF MOISTURE THIS MORNING AT KSBN AND LATER
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AT KFWA. VFR/DRY POST FRONTAL THEREAFTER.

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

405 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1251 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

NO CHANGES MADE TO INHERITED TAFS WITH FRONTAL TIMING AND SCT
SHOWER CHANCES STILL ON TRACK. COULD SEE A PERIOD OF HIGH MVFR
CIGS WITHIN NARROW LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS DIRECTLY ALONG THE
FRONTAL SLOPE...BETTER CHANCES AT KFWA. CONTINUED TO OMIT THUNDER
MENTION FOR NOW GIVEN LOW PROBABILITY/LIMITED INSTABILITY. VFR/DRY
WITH DIMINISHING WINDS INTO LATER THIS AFTN/EVE.

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

920 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 840 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS
AND TRENDS. RECENT RUNS OF THE NAM12...HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE TO
POINT TOWARD SOME RAIN POSSIBLY MOVING INTO SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN LOCATIONS LATER TONIGHT. WE WILL EVALUATE THE NEXT
RUNS OF THE 0Z NAM...AS WELL AS HRRR AND RAP FOR THE POSSIBLE NEED
TO INCREASE POPS NEAR THE TN AND VA BORDERS LATE TONIGHT.
OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED ATTM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

GIVEN THAT MUCH OF THE RAIN HAS SUBSIDED ACROSS THE REGION WE HAVE
DROPPED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REGION. ONGOING FLOODING WILL BE
COVERED BY FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROADER AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED JUST TO THE SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS ALONG WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN THE FOCAL
POINT OF LIFT FOR THE RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED TODAY. LATEST
WSR- 88D RADAR AT 3 PM DOES INDICATE THAT MUCH OF OF THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL HAS WANED THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS AS WE MOVE TONIGHT
ALONG WITH THE RAINFALL.

THE QUESTION THAT REMAINS FOR OVERNIGHT HOURS IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN
WITH YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE TRACKING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH
AS THE HRRR AND RAP WOULD SUGGEST WE WILL GET AT LEAST CLIPPED BY
THIS AREA OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. RIGHT NOW WE ARE
CARRYING SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS WITH HIGHER POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY. THESE POPS COULD NEED TO BE HIGHER LATE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT DEPENDING ON THE PROPAGATION OF THIS WAVE OF ENERGY.
UNDER THIS GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING YET ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AS WE MOVE INTO LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND INCREASED ROUND OF
SHOWERS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AS THIS
WAVE TRACKS NORTHEAST AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS NORTHERN STREAM FLOW SITUATED ALONG
THE CANADIAN/US BORDER THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHILE THE
EASTERN US IS DOMINATED BY RIDGING AND THE WESTERN US IS DOMINATED
BY A SPLIT FLOW WITH A CUT OFF LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES WILL EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND PASS
THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEYS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK...BRINGING PRECIPITATION...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES.
SUNDAY...THE CUT OFF LOW IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT OF THE SRN STREAM
AND MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM UL TROUGH WHICH ENDS UP TURNING
INTO A LARGE ROBUST SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO SPREAD
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US FROM
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE UL PATTERN IS
THEN DOMINATED BY THE UL TROUGH WHICH SLOWLY MOVES ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER...NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES...THROUGH THE END
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP
BACK DOWN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS NEXT TUES/WED AND POSSIBLY BRING A
SHORT BREAK TO THE WET WEATHER.

AT THE SFC...THE UL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
RAIN THURSDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY. THERE MAY BE MOMENTARY BREAKS
IN THE RAIN ON SATURDAY BUT OVERALL THIS WILL BE ANOTHER WET
PERIOD WITH ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO
PERSIST...USHERING IN WARM MOIST AIR...WHICH ENHANCES THE RAIN
POTENTIAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 1.0" AND 1.4" DURING THIS PERIOD...WHICH IS WELL
ABOVE THE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. BY LATE MONDAY/EARLY
TUESDAY...THE UL TROUGH SHOULD FINALLY PUSH EAST...PROVIDING
ANOTHER BREAK IN RAINFALL BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE ARE SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF...ESPECIALLY DURING THE WEEKEND PERIOD AND BEYOND. SO HAVE
STUCK CLOSE TO THE CR SUPERBLEND FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. ALSO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 840 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

LOW CLOUDS AND STRATUS OR STRATOCU CONTINUE TO PERSIST FROM NEAR
SME TO LOZ TO JKL TO SJS. DRIER AIR HAS WORKED IN AT THE LOWER
LEVELS FOR LOCATIONS FURTHER NORTH...ESPECIALLY THOSE LOCATIONS
NEARER TO THE I 64 CORRIDOR AND FURTHER NORTH. RADAR TRENDS AND
OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME DRIZZLE FALLING CLOSER TO
THE VA AND WV BORDERS AT LOCATIONS SUCH AS 1A6...I35 AND PBX. WITH
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY...THE MVFR TO
IFR CIGS AND OR VIS NEARER TO THE VA BORDER SHOULD PERSIST...WITH
THE MVFR TO VFR REMAINING IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. SOME IMPROVEMENT
SHOULD OCCUR AT THE 4 MORE SOUTHERN TAF SITES DURING THE LAST 12
HOURS OF THE PERIOD INTO OR THROUGH THE VFR RANGE AND POSSIBLY TO
VFR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE WINDS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE 5
TO 10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...JP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

220 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS...INCLUDING RADAR AND SATELLITE. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
IS ON TRACK...THOUGH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF QPF NOW EXPECTED
TONIGHT...PROBABLY NECESSITATING A FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE WITH THE
NEXT PACKAGE. THESE LATEST GRID UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE
NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1115 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. CONNECTED TO THIS DEVELOPING LOW IS A COLD FRONT INBOUND
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE FRONT QUITE WELL ALONG WITH THE
NORTHWARD SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF MANIFESTING AS SHOWERS
LIFTING THROUGH WESTERN TENNESSEE. AHEAD OF THIS...MID LEVEL
CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA BUT MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS STILL PREVAIL IN THE NORTH AND EASTERN SECTIONS. THE
SUNSHINE IS HELPING ALREADY ELEVATED TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE
70S...WHILE UPPER 60S ARE SEEN BENEATH THE CLOUDS. DEW POINTS ARE
STEADILY COMING UP...AS WELL...REACHING THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S. THIS WILL STILL LIKELY HINDER THE INITIAL ONSET OF PCPN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...FOR A TIME BEFORE THE CONVECTION OVERWHELMS THE
DRIER AIR. DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS CURRENTLY AT 5 TO
10 KTS MAY ALSO WORK TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF MEASURABLE PCPN. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY TO FINE TUNE THE CONVECTION/S ARRIVAL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON PER THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 MODELS. DID
ALSO ADJUST TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PER THE
LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE...OBS...AND TRENDS. THESE UPDATED GRIDS
HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS WHILE A FRESHENED SET
OF ZONES HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 821 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY
COVER ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.
OTHERWISE...WILL LET THE FORECAST RIDE.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS SCOOTED OFF TO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WITH A COLD FRONT ALIGNED FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
DOWN THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH BROAD LOW PRESSURE
RESIDING IN TEXAS. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...WHILE A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH IS CRUISING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITHIN THE
NORTHERN STREAM. MODEST RIDGING IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE CONUS.

EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING...WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ALLOWING FOR A GOOD RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT
ACROSS THE AREA...AS COOLER VALLEYS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
40S...WHILE RIDGES REMAIN IN THE 60S.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DAMPEN AND PIVOT ITS WAY
TOWARDS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...WHILE SENDING A FEW WEAKER SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS OUT AHEAD OF IT WHICH WILL AFFECT THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA LATE TODAY AND EVENTUALLY PASS THROUGH THE
COMMONWEALTH TONIGHT...BEFORE EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY.

MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES WILL STILL BE WEST OF I-75
AND NEAR THE I-64 CORRIDOR...WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW RESISTING THE
MOISTURE RETURN FURTHER TO THE EAST. THE MODELS HAVE GENERALLY
TRENDED A BIT SLOWER WITH THE POPS...SO SOME LOCATIONS LOOK TO
REACH 80 OR SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY ONCE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE MILDER START.

THE BOUNDARY WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME ADDED
FORCING FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH A FEW STORMS AS WELL. THERE IS
A CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN THE VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES IN PLACE...HOWEVER THERE STILL REMAINS SOME QUESTION
AS TO HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL BE REALIZED WITH MODELS STILL SHOWING
QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD WITH QPF AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT. FOR
NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

THE FRONT WILL SLIP INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON TUESDAY...WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TAPERING OFF EARLY IN THE MORNING. HIGHS WILL
BE MUCH COOLER...WITH LOW TO MID 60S EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
BY MIDWEEK...REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. TO THE EAST OF THIS UPPER LOW...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BE IN PLACE AND SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL DELIVER MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO EAST KENTUCKY. IN
FACT...WILL HAVE TO CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH PERIOD DURING THE
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LOOKING HARD FOR SOME GOOD
NEWS...CURRENT FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT EACH WAVE OF RAIN WILL
BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE SO WE MAY NOT HAVE MUCH OF A FLOOD THREAT
DESPITE THE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN. THE PROGRESSING GREENUP WILL
HELP THAT CAUSE AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD...AVERAGING
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015

A COLD FRONT AND CONVECTION FROM THE SOUTH WILL APPROACH THE AREA
DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH CEILINGS GRADUALLY
LOWERING AND SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT...
MAINLY LATER THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-75. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DROP DOWN TO MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING...WITH CONVECTION BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD LATE THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT PRESSES THROUGH THE
AREA. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DROP DOWN TO IFR BEHIND THE FRONT
BETWEEN 05 AND 08Z AND LOOK TO LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD
FOR ALL BUT PERHAPS KSYM. GENERALLY SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 OR 20
KTS POSSIBLE...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BEHIND
THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUING NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GREIF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOUISVILLE KY

153 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1115 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2015

A mix of sun and clouds currently summarizes the weather late this
morning over central KY and south-central IN. Showers are
progressing a little slower toward our area than previous forecast,
so have trended back timing a bit. Surface front shows up well
across IL into south-central/southeastern MO, with showers and a few
thunderstorms along and just ahead of it. This axis will move east
this afternoon while other moisture/showers over the Tennessee
Valley move north-northeast. So, expect showers and scattered
thunderstorms to increase from the west and south this afternoon,
with coverage increasing substantially late this afternoon and
evening.

Latest NAM is showing rain amounts of 1-2 inches across parts of
central KY tonight, roughly from BWG to LEX. 12z HRRR appears to
focus things along/near the front over north-central to east-central
KY. So, will keep an eye on coverage/amounts as the day and evening
unfolds.

Made minor adjustments to temps/dewpoints for this afternoon but
nothing drastic.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 335 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2015

A cold front will approach the region today from the west while
isentropic lift increases over our region as a weak frontal boundary
approaches from the south. Moisture still looks to be quite a ways
off from our area so will side with the drier 0Z model solutions
which keep most of the morning dry. We should start to see
sufficient moistening of the atmosphere closer to Noon or early
afternoon. As the previous forecaster mentioned, we may see two
areas of convection develop over our region early this afternoon.
One closer to the cold front west of I-65 and the other from roughly
Bowling Green to Lexington in the better isentropic lift over the
southern boundary. Precip looks to start out as possibly some
showers and scattered storms this afternoon. A few storms might
become strong in nature with wind gusts up to 40 mph, but don`t feel
this is very likely.

Precipitation will fill in over the entire area this evening as the
weak boundaries look to merge over the Ohio Valley. Tonight a
decent sfc wave or waves look to ride along the resulting boundary
causing it to slow as it tries to push south through our region.
This will result in a rainy night for us with a potentially heavy
rain axis setting up over south central KY. The 0Z NAM yields as
much as 2-3 inches of rainfall over the Lake Cumberland region.
Other 0Z models haven`t quite jumped on board in narrowing down an
axis of heavier rainfall over south central KY, but can`t rule it
out somewhere over central KY as the front slows and upper flow
becomes parallel to the front. Will need to watch trends in
high-res models throughout the day as 3 hr and 6 hr FFG over east
central KY is running between 1.75 to 2.5 inches. Will bump
forecast rainfall amounts up on this forecast to a solid 1-1.6
inches over south central and portions of east central KY for
Mon/Mon night with higher amounts possible.

Precipitation should gradually diminish as rain showers from NW to
SE Tues during the day as the front pushes well south of the Ohio
Valley.

Temperatures for today should reach the mid 70s to around 80 with
the later rain arrival. Tonight low temps will be tricky with the
frontal boundary draped across our area. We`ll likely see a
gradient of lows from the upper 40s/lower 50s over southern IN to
upper 50s/lower 60s across south central KY. Tuesday will be cooler
on the north side of the front with highs in the low to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2015

...More Above Normal Rainfall Expected This Week...

Overall forecast confidence remains in the low to medium category as
we will continue to deal with downstream effects of a split flow
pattern aloft. Both the deterministic and ensemble global model
runs essentially have the same pattern aloft characterized by a
substantial trough axis out across the desert southwest with
persistent ridging hanging tough over the eastern US. Initial
trough axis looks to lift out into the Plains and toward the upper
Midwest by midweek, only to be replaced by a larger cut off low
toward the end of the week in the desert southwest. This flow
regime is pretty much a textbook case for heavy/enhanced rainfall
from the southern Plains/Deep TX eastward across the deep south.
Model spreads remain fairly high throughout the period leading to
the low/medium forecast confidence.

In terms of sensible weather, a front will drop southward through
the region early in the extended period. The latest round of data
suggests that this boundary will hang up across central TN during
the day on Wednesday and then lift back northward late Thursday and
into Friday. Some marginal ridging aloft looks to move in by the
weekend which may result in a slightly drier conditions across the
region. The large cut off low across the southwest then looks to
lift out by late in the weekend bringing yet another round of
rainfall the region by early next week.

As mentioned above, the overall pattern favors heavy/enhanced
rainfall from the southern Plains eastward into portions of the deep
south. Much of the Ohio Valley will likely remain in the warm
sector through much of the week with precipitable water values in
excess of an inch. Total QPF amounts for our area over the next
week look to fall in a tight gradient from north to south. In the
north 1-2 inches of total rainfall looks very likely. South of the
WK/BG Parkways, 2-3 inches of rainfall...with locally higher amounts
looks very possible. This precipitation combined with already
saturated soils will likely result in excessive runoff later this
week, leading to hydrologic issues on area creeks and streams.

As for temperatures, the forecast remains quite challenging due to
complex precipitation patterns and actual frontal locations. A
blended approach was used for the upcoming forecast, but there area
potential bust areas that could occur. For now, daily highs in the
upper 60s to the lower 70s seems likely. Overnight lows look to
cool into the 50s most nights.

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 145 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2015

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous this
afternoon at and around the 3 TAF sites. This will then transition
to a more widespread rain area tonight as a cold front slips
southeast across central KY and as a surface low moves east-
northeast along it. Initially VFR visibility may briefly go down to
MVFR later this afternoon in any heavier showers and storms.
Ceilings will also lower by late afternoon and evening, with MVFR
ceilings tonight, probably lowering into IFR at times. Rain should
be moderate to perhaps heavy at times in intensity tonight, but with
a gradual loss of thunderstorms.

Widespread rain should diminish at SDF by about 06z with lighter
scattered showers in the vicinity through 12z as ceilings begin to
rise again. Rain and low MVFR/IFR ceilings will continue at BWG and
LEX through 12z, with still some rain at these 2 sites after 12z but
with ceilings becoming MVFR.

As the cold front moves through and low pressure rides east-
northeast along it, expect winds to switch from SW to NE and become
gusty overnight with prevailing winds 10-20 with gusts over 20 kts
at times possible.

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Update.........TWF
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......TWF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOUISVILLE KY

1120 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1115 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2015

Made minor adjustments to temps/dewpoints for this afternoon but
nothing drastic.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 335 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2015

Precipitation should gradually diminish as rain showers from NW to
SE Tues during the day as the front pushes well south of the Ohio
Valley.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2015

...More Above Normal Rainfall Expected This Week...

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 655 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2015

VFR conditions are expected through sunrise. After sunrise, low
level moisture will begin to increase as weather systems approach
from the south and west causing high end MVFR cigs to enter the area
this morning/early afternoon. Precipitation timing looks about the
same so will hold on to -SHRA with VCTS starting late
afternoon/early evening. Flight conditions could go down to IFR
during the evening hours. Felt confident to include in BWG TAF but
not confident in a time frame for this to happen at SDF/LEX quite
yet so will hold off on IFR mention attm. Thunder chances should
diminish after midnight so will just insert -SHRA for the last
portion of the TAF period.

Winds will be southerly through mid afternoon, then turning light
and variable this evening ahead of a weak cold front and another
boundary to our southwest. The cold front will pass late tonight
turning winds to the NE after 6Z and increasing to 10-14 kts tonight.

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Update.........TWF
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......AMS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

1113 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1115 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 821 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY
COVER ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.
OTHERWISE...WILL LET THE FORECAST RIDE.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 821 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA DURING THE DAY...WITH
CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWERING AND SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT...MAINLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-75. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DROP
DOWN TO MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH SHOWERS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD LATE THIS EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DROP DOWN TO IFR BEHIND THE FRONT BETWEEN 05
AND 08Z AND LOOK TO LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW ORLEANS LA

334 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR AMARILLO TEXAS. WELL
DEFINED MCV NOW OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST LOUISIANA NEAR MONROE IS
CONTINUING TO PUSH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE AREA.
A GOOD BIT OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH MOST OF THE AREA
CURRENTLY DRY. ABOUT THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA SEEING A LITTLE
SUNSHINE AND THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER TO NEAR THE
80 DEGREE MARK.

.SHORT TERM...

CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF
TONIGHT. HRRR LOOKS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
MAY LOWER POPS FROM WHAT IS SHOWN BELOW FOR TONIGHT PRIOR TO
FORECAST RELEASE...BUT WILL STILL CARRY AT LEAST SOME SMALL
MENTION IN CASE NEXT SURGE IS QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED. NEXT
SURGE LOOKS TO BE LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT LOWER
TOMORROW...CLOSER TO 1.75 INCHES THAN THE 1.96 WE SAW THIS
MORNING. STILL LOOKING AT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. WILL KEEP FLOOD WATCH AS CURRENTLY
CONFIGURED. MIDNIGHT SHIFT WILL NEED TO LOOK FOR POSSIBLE
CONTINUATION/EXPANSION OF WATCH...AS IT LOOKS LIKE PATTERN WILL
REPEAT FOR WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY. GENERALLY LIKELY
POPS DURING THE DAY AND CHANCE AT NIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TEMPERATURE RANGES WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION...BUT IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH OF A BREAK IN
CLOUD COVER TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BREAK 80 DEGREES. 35

.LONG TERM...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS START TO DIVERGE ON THE UPPER PATTERN FRIDAY
WITH GFS SYSTEM BEING CONSIDERABLY DEEPER AT 500 MB THAN ECMWF.
FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH A BLENDED APPROACH UNTIL MODEL DIFFERENCES
RESOLVE. NO LONG PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER MUCH BEFORE NEXT SUNDAY OR
MONDAY. DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS TO CONTINUE WITH NOT MUCH MORE
THAN 10-15 DEGREE SPREAD...AND THAT MAY BE GENEROUS THROUGH
SATURDAY. COULD SEE A LITTLE COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS BEGINNING
SUNDAY IN THE NORTH IF SOME DRYING WORKS IN. 35

.AVIATION...

CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING HAS PUSHED EAST OF
THE AREA AND NO LONGER AN IMPACT FOR TERMINALS. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MAINLY NORTH OF A KBTR TO
KHDC LINE. OTHERWISE MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME LOCATIONS BECOMING VFR. THOSE VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
FADE AWAY OVERNIGHT AS LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY FOG
DEVELOPS. RAINFALL TO RETURN AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING.

MEFFER

.MARINE...

GENERALLY EXPECT ONSHORE WINDS 8-12 KNOTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...OCCASIONALLY DISTURBED BY WAVES OF CONVECTION. 35

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE
ACTIVATION...NONE
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING FLOOD WATCH AND WARNINGS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 67 75 64 78 / 40 80 50 60
BTR 68 77 65 79 / 40 80 50 70
ASD 69 79 67 79 / 30 80 60 70
MSY 70 78 68 79 / 30 80 50 70
GPT 71 77 69 77 / 30 70 60 70
PQL 71 80 69 80 / 30 70 60 70

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR LAZ040-046>050-
056>070-072.

GM...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR MSZ080>082.

GM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW ORLEANS LA

1243 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015

.UPDATE...

WELL DEFINED MCV MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE RESTON AND MONROE
AREAS. THIS IS SWEEPING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EASTWARD
WITH MOST ACTIVITY NOW OVER COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. EVEN THESE AREAS
SHOULD SEE AN END TO THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN PRIOR TO THE
ISSUANCE OF THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE IMPULSE AS THE
16Z HRRR INDICATES. EARLY LOOK AT 12Z GUIDANCE ALSO WOULD INDICATE
SOME LOWERING OF OVERNIGHT POPS IS WARRANTED. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AS WELL WITH SOME SUNSHINE INDICATED. 35

.AVIATION...

CONVECTION DEPARTING MOST TERMINAL AREAS WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT
ALL SITES EXCEPT KGPT...WHERE IMPROVEMENT SHOULD OCCUR IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE EVENING HOURS. CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG OR LOW STRATUS...AND MENTION OF LIGHT TO MODERATE FOG WILL BE
CARRIED IN THE FORECAST. NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...AND WILL LIKELY BE ADDRESSED IN THE
00Z FORECAST PACKAGE. 35/MEFFER

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 813 AM CDT MON APR 13 2015/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING IS UNSTABLE ABOVE THE TOP OF A SFC
INVERSION AT 950 MB. MIXED LAYER CAPE IS 1500 J/KG. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED SINCE YESTERDAY AND ARE AT ABOUT 6.3
C/KM. DUE TO A LOW LEVEL MESOSCALE BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA...
WINDS ARE EASTERLY IN THE INVERSION AND THEN SOUTH AT 018 FT.
ABOVE THE INVERSION WINDS BECOME WESTERLY. THIS CREATES SOME SHEAR
IN THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW LEVEL SRH VALUES AROUND 200
M2/S2. THE PROFILE IS NEAR SATURATED AT POINTS THROUGHOUT...
RESULTING IN A RECORD MAX PW IN THE CLIMATOLOGY FOR TODAY AT 1.96
INCHES. THE STORMS COMING IN THIS MORNING WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT
RAIN MAKERS.
KRAUTMANN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT MON APR 13 2015/

SHORT TERM...
NEXT WEATHER PLAYER IS MCV MOVING OUT OF DEEP SOUTH TX INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. NO REAL SIGNS OF WEAKENING PER WSR88D AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY. MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MCV IN THE FORM OF HIGH WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND
TORRENTIAL RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. LOOKING AT
THE 00Z SOUNDING ALSO INDICATES INSTABILITY IN THE POST WARM FRONT
ENVIRONMENT WITH PARCEL CAPE VALUES OF 900 TO 1000 J/KG AND BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 22 M2/S2. PW MEASURED AT 1.94 INCHES INDICATES
RAIN THAT DOES FALL WILL BE QUITE EFFICIENT IN NATURE. HELICITY
IMPRESSIVE AT OVER 200 M2/S2. NOW THERE COULD BE SOME MODIFICATION
FROM 00Z TO THIS MORNING...WE WILL SEE ONCE WE LAUNCH THE 12Z
RADIOSONDE AND ADJUST IF NEEDED. EVEN THOUGH NOT WIDESPREAD...THERE
IS A NON- ZERO CHANCE OF A SOME WATERSPOUTS AND/OR BRIEF TORNADOES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS AND ESPECIALLY WHEN THEY
INTERACT WITH MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES. I DID EXPAND AND EXTEND THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN
YESTERDAY...IE THE MS GULF COAST WITH OVER 3 INCHES IN MANY AREAS
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z LAST NIGHT. ANY RAIN OVER THE WATCH AREA
BECOMES A PROBLEM AS ACCUMULATED RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS HAS LOWERED FFG VALUES TO AROUND 2 TO 2.5 INCHES PER HOUR
WHICH IS ATTAINABLE CONSIDERING THE THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT.

HRRR TAKES THE MCV TO THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 13Z WITH SOME
SHRA DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD BEGINNING BETWEEN 8Z AND 9Z. RADAR
ALREADY SUPPORTING THIS FORECAST. THE MAIN MCV WILL REACH KBTR
AROUND 8AM...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN BY 11AM/NOON... AND THE MS GULF
COAST AROUND 1 TO 2PM. /KEG/

LONG TERM...
WEATHER MODELS ARE ALL A LITTLE OFF IN TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
RAIN BUT WE CAN TAKE AWAY AT LEAST A VERY EL NINOESQUE WET
PATTERN CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. ECMWF LOW AT 06Z LAST
NIGHT WAS PLOTTED CLOSE TO SATELLITE PER THE 3.9U CHANNEL
OBSERVATION. CLOSED LOW WAS IN SW NM WITH PLENTY OF FORCING AND
IMPULSES OUT AHEAD. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ALSO AIDING IN CURRENT
AND FUTURE SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY OVER OUR AREA.

CURRENT LOW PROGGED OVER THE TX PANHANDLE AT 06Z TUE AS YET
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS IN SOUTH OVER THE ROCKIES LATE IN THE WEEK.
A LOW CLOSES OFF AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE 4 CORNERS
AROUND 06Z THU. MODELS INDICATING THIS SETTING UP SIMILAR TO THE
CURRENT SITUATION WITH IMPULSES EJECTING EAST AND A DIFFLUENT
UPPER PATTERN. THIS SPELLS ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSTM CHANCES INTO
THU/FRI/SAT HOWEVER CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE AS HIGH ESPECIALLY
GETTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. BY 18Z SUN THE CLOSED LOW HOVERS AROUND
WESTERN KS AND SHOULD BE PUSHING RAIN CHANCES EASTWARD WITH IT.
INTERESTING TO NOTE YET ANOTHER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW
DIVES SOUTH OFF THE CA COAST PER THE GFS AND ECMWF AT THE 200 TO
240 HOUR MARK. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS BUT DOES CONTINUE THE
CURRENT TREND OF A VERY ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WITH SYSTEM LINED
UP FOR THE NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY BEYOND. /KEG/

MARINE...OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE
SE AND S THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS NEVER REALLY SEEM TO GET
VERY STRONG SO ONLY LOOKING FOR MODERATE ONSHORE AT TIMES...IN THE
10-15KT RANGE. B/C CONCERN WOULD BE IN THE NEXT 12 HRS WITH
CONVECTION CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE NW GULF. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS
STRONG AND IF IT HOLDS WILL LIKELY PROMPT MARINE WARNINGS AS IT
MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND MONITORING CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 75 67 74 65 / 100 40 80 60
BTR 77 68 75 66 / 100 40 80 50
ASD 77 69 77 67 / 100 30 80 50
MSY 78 70 76 68 / 100 30 70 50
GPT 74 71 74 70 / 100 30 70 50
PQL 77 71 78 70 / 100 30 70 50

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR LAZ040-046>050-
056>070-072.

GM...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR MSZ080>082.

GM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

401 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
NW ONTARIO INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. STRONG QVECTOR DIV IN THE WAKE
OF A DEPARTING SHRTWV AND DROPPING 600-500 MB TEMPS HAVE RESULTED IN
A NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC PROFILE AND MIXING HEIGHT TO NEAR 15K FT WITH
GUSTY WNW WINDS ACROSS THE CWA. THE HIGH SFC-600MB LAPSE RATES HAVE
SUPPORTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES/VIRGA FROM NW WI INTO SRN UPPER MI. DOWNDRAFTS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LIGHT SHOWERS MAY ENHANCED THE GUSTY WINDS AS WAS OBSERVED
AT EGV WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAKENING PRES
GRADIENT...THE GUSTY WINDS AND ISOLD PCPN WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY.
HOWEVER...FCST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD BE STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO
PROVIDE SOME MIXING AND KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO FAR WITH
MIN READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

TUE...CONFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND THE SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION BRINGING SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. MIXING TO
AROUND 5K-6K FT OR 800 MB WILL SUPPORT HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S EAST
TO THE MID 60S SOUTH AND WEST. DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 10F-15F
RANGE WILL RESULT IN RH VALUES AROUND 15 PCT OVER THE CNTRL AND WEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT AT 500MB AND
LINGERING AT THE SFC. WITH PW VALUES AROUND 0.25IN OR LESS AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY OVER THE E THIRD OF UPPER MI...FELT REASONABLE TO
LOWER THE MIN TEMPS FOR THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS WEDNESDAY
MORNING TO RIGHT AROUND 30F.

THE APEX OF THE 500MB RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH NEARING FROM S CENTRAL CANADA.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE HIGHER FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR FAR W
AND FAR S CENTRAL UPPER MI /S OF A LINE FROM IMT TO ISQ/. THIS WILL
BE WHERE RH VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS COMBINE WITH TEMPS AROUND 15F
ABOVE NORMAL. ON A POSITIVE NOTE...WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT S
CENTRAL. LOOKING AT THE FCST SOUNDINGS ANYTHING ABOVE 15KTS WOULD BE
ABOVE 400MB...OR AFTER 21Z CLOSER TO THE SFC. PW VALUES OVER THE E
HALF REMAIN AROUND 0.25IN OR LESS /DRIEST OF THE NAM SOLUTION/. OVER
THE FAR W...CLOSER TO THE NEARING LOW...S WINDS COULD GUSTS NEAR 15-
20KTS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AT THE SFC...LOOK FOR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE S
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER DOWN THROUGH E CO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING TO DIVIDE INTO 2 SEPARATE SYSTEMS. THE S LOW WILL SINK INTO
TX WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE N LOW HEADS NE INTO HUDSON
BAY THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT THE STEADY STATE SFC RIDGE ACROSS UPPER
MI TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AS A RESULT OF THE
NEARING LOW. THE BROAD S CENTRAL CANADIAN TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BRING A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE S HUDSON BAY
LOW THROUGH N MN. IT TENDS TO WASHOUT A BIT AS IT NEARS THE AREA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WILL HAVE S-SSW WINDS JUST ABOVE
THE SFC /900-950MB/ OF 30-35KTS. SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH OF AN INVERSION
SET UP TO KEEP THESE WINDS FROM BEING REALIZED...WITH AROUND A 5-
10KT PUFF AT THE SFC.

THE 13/00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE/STRONGER WITH THE COLD
FRONT...WITH SIGHT SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING AND W-NW WINDS SLIDING
IN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO
AROUND 2C BY 06Z FRIDAY. BY CONTRAST THE 13/12Z GFS STILL HAS S FLOW
AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND 7C...AND REMAINS DRY. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS
SLOWLY LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY...BUT AM NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT ANY
CHANCE OF PRECIP IN OUR MAINLY DRY PATTERN. THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO WIDEN AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST LOOKS TO BE A SHORTWAVE NEARING IN THE
NW FLOW FROM S MANITOBA/NW MN FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO LAKE
SUPERIOR/UPPER MI FRIDAY EVENING. THE GFS IS STRONGER AND DEEPER
WITH THE SYSTEM...WITH A 996MB SFC LOW NEAR JAMES BAY BY 06Z
SATURDAY...AND PUMPS UP ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE 500MB LOW
EJECTING OUT OF THE SW STATES. THE ECMWF IS HOVERING AROUND
1007MB...TRACKING THE LOW OVER E LAKE SUPERIOR AND SE ONTARIO...AND
IS RUNNING INDEPENDENT OF THE S LOW SPINNING AROUND THE 4 CORNERS
REGION.

WITHOUT A LOT OF FANFARE...THE 13/00Z ECMWF MERGES THIS 4 CORNERS
LOW BACK INTO THE NEXT WAVE SINKING ACROSS MT AND THE PLAINS STATES
ON SUNDAY. THE RESULT WOULD BE PRECIP NEARING AGAIN FOR MONDAY ON E-
SE WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND 3C. THE 12Z RUN IS A LITTLE SLOWER
AND KEEPS PRECIP OUT OF THE CWA UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON W.

THE GFS KEEPS THE N AND S STREAMS A BIT MORE SEPARATED. AT 12Z
SUNDAY SFC LOWS OVER SW ONTARIO AND AR SLOWLY MERGE 12Z MONDAY
ACROSS LAKE HURON. PRECIP LOOKS TO SKIP UPPER MI UNTIL -10C AIR
PUSHES IN FROM THE NW ON MONDAY. SO THE MAIN QUESTION IS...WILL OUR
NEXT CHANCE OF ANY REAL PRECIP BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE
GFS BELIEVES...OR WILL IT HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK LIKE THE
ECMWF. WILL LOOK AT THE ENSEMBLE FCSTS...AND A GENERAL BLEND MAY BE
THE WAY TO GO FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015

ANY LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT SAW ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS STRONG DRYING MOVES IN THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING...ALL SITES WILL HAVE GUSTY WINDS REACHING 30 KTS OR
HIGHER AT BOTH KCMX AND KSAW. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN LATER THIS EVENING
WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL MIXING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015

AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS THIS EVENING...EXPECT THE GUSTY WRLY
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS TO FALL BELOW 25 KNOTS. HIGH PRES BUILDING
OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND TUE WILL KEEP WINDS BLO 20 KNOTS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MELTING SNOW AND RUNOFF FROM THE AVERAGE
0.25IN OF RAIN THAT FELL THIS MORNING. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS HAVE
ONLY PATCHES OF SNOW LEFT...A FEW SPOTS STILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT SNOW
/MOHAWK WITH 17IN AND MUNISING WITH 19IN/. THE FORECAST GETS A BIT
TRICKY FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON...BUT UNTIL THEN NO ADDITIONAL PRECIP
IS EXPECTED.

DAY SHIFT ISSUED A HYDROLOGICAL STATEMENT /RVS/ FOR PRICKETT DAM ON
THE STURGEON RIVER...WHICH WAS AT 7.1FT AT 10AM MONDAY. FLOOD STAGE
IS 8 FT THERE.

ALONG WITH THE SURGEON RIVER OF BARAGA AND HOUGHTON COUNTIES...THE
ESCANABA RIVER WILL ALSO APPROACH BANKFULL STAGE IN SOME SPOTS MID-
WEEK...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT THE HEADWATERS OF THESE RIVER
HAVE THE MOST SNOW. THE MICHIGAMME RIVER ALSO HAS GREATER SNOWPACK
IN THE HEADWATERS REGION OF THE PESHEKEE RIVER...BUT IT SHOULD TAKE
LONGER FOR THAT WATER TO REACH LOWER SECTIONS OF THE RIVER MORE
PRONE TO FLOODING. STILL...NOT SEEING ANYTHING SUGGESTING MORE THAN
ACTION STAGE POSSIBLE ON THE MICHIGAMME RIVER. OVERALL...NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
HYDROLOGY...KF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

353 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ADVANCING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS WITH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE FROM QUEBEC
DOWN THROUGH THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT
EXTENDED THROUGH NW ONTARIO...WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO ERN IA FROM A
LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT AN AREA OF SCT SHRA HAS
MOVED INTO WRN UPPER MI EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME ISOLD T-STORMS WERE
EMBEDDED WITH THIS SHRA ACTIVITY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF 200-300 J/KG
OF MUCAPE AND MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM.

TODAY...WITH THE ADVANCING MID LEVEL TROUGH TAKING ON A MORE NEG-
TILT...THIS HAS SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT
EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS NOW INDICATE THE ERN THIRD OF UPPER MI
WILL STAY DRY THROUGH 12Z. AS THE SFC FRONT SLOWLY ADVANCES ACROSS
THE FCST AREA...EXPECT SHRA COVERAGE TO INCREASE TO NUMEROUS INTO
THE WRN HALF OF UPPER MI EARLY THIS MORNING (BEFORE 12Z) IN RESPONSE
TO MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300 QVECTOR CONV SPREADING INTO THE AREA
AND STRENGTHENING 800-600 MB FGEN AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING MID LEVEL
TROUGH. THE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS SPREADING E WITH THE MVMT OF THE MID-
LVL TROF WILL THEN ALLOW THE NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO
SPREAD INTO THE ERN HALF OF UPPER MI AFTER 12Z. ALTHOUGH ONLY
MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG IS FCST WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES SLIGHTLY BLO 0C...DECIDED TO KEEP A MENTION OF
THUNDER IN THE FCST AT LEAST INTO THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET NEAR 50 KT WL BE NOSING INTO THE AREA TO
ENHANCE LIFT/INSTABILITY.

STRONG QVECTOR DIV AND DRYING IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO UPPER MI FM
THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF OVER THE FAR EAST.
HOWEVER...WITH DROPPING 600-500 MB TEMPS RESULTING IN A NEARLY DRY
ADIABATIC PROFILE AND MIXING HEIGHT TO NEAR 15K FT...GUSTY WNW WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THE STRONGEST WRLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE TYPICALLY FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW WHERE GUSTS TO
40 MPH ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. THE HIGH SFC-600MB LAPSE RATES WILL
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES/VIRGA
DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON...AND ANY SHRA WHICH OCCUR MAY
FURTHER ENHANCE GUSTY WINDS. THE HIGH MIXING DEPTH WILL BRING DOWN
MUCH DRIER AIR ALLOWING DEWPOINTS TO DROP INTO THE TEENS OVER THE
WRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WITH RH VALUES TO NEAR 20 PCT.

THE DEEP MIXING AND DRYING DURING THE DAY MAY ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO
DROP A BIT MORE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AND UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND PWATS
FCST BLO .25 INCH. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW PRES TROUGH
TO THE EAST AND ADVANCING RDG OVER THE PLAINS MAY ALLOW JUST
ENOUGH WIND/MIXING TO KEEP TEMPS FM BOTTOMING OUT TOO FAR...BUT
STILL WL LIKELY SEE READINGS DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S OVER A FEW OF
THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OVER THE WRN INTERIOR. RH RECOVERY WILL BE
POOR DUE TO DRY CONDITIONS AND WIND WITH MAX RH ONLY REACHING AROUND
60 PRECENT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

BEHIND THE TROUGH/FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS
MORNING...EXPECT W WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 20 TO 30KT RANGE TODAY
WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE
IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING WINDS DOWN UNDER 20
KNOTS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015

DAY SHIFT ISSUED A HYDROLOGICAL STATEMENT /RVS/ FOR PRICKETT DAM ON
THE STURGEON RIVER...WHICH WAS AT 7.1FT AT 10AM MONDAY. FLOOD STAGE
IS 8 FT THERE.

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
HYDROLOGY...KF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

127 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

MILD AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO START THE PERIOD BEFORE
SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN ARRIVE ON A SERIES OF TROUGHS THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT TO OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY EVENING. AN ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH WILL CROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...WITH THE CENTER PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA. WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY...LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. THIS MAY PUT AN EARLY
BRAKE ON TEMPS ALONG THE LAKESHORES...BUT HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN
THE 50S TO LOW 60S...WARMEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST. RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN HIGHS ABOUT 5F
WARMER ON WEDNESDAY. GOOD MIXING INTO A DECENT INVERSION SHOULD
YIELD WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON.

AS FOR FIRE WX CONCERNS...MUCH OF THE SNOWPACK WAS REMOVED FROM THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF UPPER MI ON SUNDAY...AND TOOK A BIG HIT ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF. SUBSTANTIAL DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY WITH VERY LOW
RH VALUES AND GUSTY WINDS. ON TUESDAY...MIXING INTO AN EXTREMELY DRY
LAYER BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KFT WILL YIELD AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE MID
TEENS. THIS WILL AGAIN RESULT IN ABUNDANT DRYING...THOUGH WINDS WILL
BE RATHER LIGHT. HIGHER FIRE WX CONCERNS WILL THEREFORE EXIST FOR
WEDNESDAY AS SHORT TERM FIRE WX INDICIES REACH FAVORABLE LEVELS FOR
GRASS/BRUSH FIRES. WHILE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 10 TO 15
MPH GUSTING TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE WEST...TEMPS ABOUT 15F ABOVE
AVERAGE AND LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE UPPER 10S TO MID 20S
INLAND WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS FOR LOCATIONS THAT HAVE
ALREADY LOST THEIR SNOWPACK. THIS INCLUDES POCKETS OF THE WEST AND
ESPECIALLY AN AREA SOUTH OF IRON MOUNTAIN...TO TRENARY...TO
MANISTIQUE.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WEAK TROUGHING CURRENTLY NEAR EL PASO
WILL SHIFT NE TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...BRUSHING THE CWA AND MERGING
WITH THE MID MS TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY. THE
ECMWF IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS AND CANADIAN GEM WITH
THE MERGER. HOWEVER...ALL THREE SHOW GULF MOISTURE STRUGGLING TO
REACH THIS FAR NORTH BEFORE THE TROUGHS ARRIVE. ADDITIONALLY...THE
BETTER FORCING FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET STREAK
REMAINS TO THE NORTH. GIVEN THOSE FACTORS AND THE ANTECEDENT VERY
DRY LOW LEVELS...ONLY PLACED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE GFS HAS COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE
ECMWF REGARDING A COMPACT SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...IN ADDITION TO GUSTY NW
WINDS ACROSS THE CWA. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN SAT AFTERNOON
AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN CANADA. AN
ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH MAY REACH THE WESTERN CWA LATE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015

LOW CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL HELP KEEP STREAM
LEVELS IN CHECK AS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF REMAINING SNOW PACK MELTS
OFF THIS WEEK. ENSEMBLE RIVER GUIDANCE AND RIVER FORECASTS SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR THE SURGEON RIVER OF BARAGA AND HOUGHTON COUNTIES AND
ESCANABA RIVER TO APPROACH BANKFULL STAGE IN SOME SPOTS MID-
WEEK...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT THE HEADWATERS OF THESE RIVER
HAVE THE MOST SNOW. THE MICHIGAMME RIVER ALSO HAS GREATER SNOWPACK
IN THE HEADWATERS REGION OF THE PESHEKEE RIVER...BUT IT SHOULD TAKE
LONGER FOR THAT WATER TO REACH LOWER SECTIONS OF THE RIVER MORE
PRONE TO FLOODING. STILL...NOT SEEING ANYTHING SUGGESTING MORE THAN
ACTION STAGE POSSIBLE ON THE MICHIGAMME RIVER. OVERALL...NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
HYDROLOGY...TITUS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

749 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

MILD AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO START THE PERIOD BEFORE
SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN ARRIVE ON A SERIES OF TROUGHS THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT...IMPROVING
TO VFR AT KIWD BY LATE MORNING AND AT KCMX AND KSAW BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AS SHRA DISSIPATE AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. ALL SITES
WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT REACHING 30 KTS OR HIGHER AT BOTH KCMX
AND KSAW. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN LATER THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL
MIXING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
HYDROLOGY...TITUS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

446 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

MILD AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO START THE PERIOD BEFORE
SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN ARRIVE ON A SERIES OF TROUGHS THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SHRA MOVING IN ALONG FRONT LATE TONIGHT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA AND BE OUT OF HERE BY MON AFTERNOON. ALL SITES WILL BE
GUSTY MON BEHIND THE FRONT...AND BY EVENING...WINDS WILL DIE DOWN
WITH LESS MIXING OCCURRING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS
HYDROLOGY...TITUS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

301 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ADVANCING THROUGH THE WRN PLAINS WITH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO HUDSON BAY. AT THE SFC...A FRONT EXTENDED
THROUGH NW MN AND ERN SD FROM A LOW OVER NE MANITOBA. GUSTY SRLY
WINDS TO 30-35 MPH HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MN/WI/UPPER MI WITH A TIGHT
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND HIGH PRES OVER THE ERN CONUS.

TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC FRONT
ADVANCE TOWARD THE WRN LAKES...EXPECT SHRA COVERAGE TO INCREASE
ACROSS ERN MN INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY LATE THIS EVENING. MODELS
WERE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AND PCPN
THROUGH THE REGION...REFLECTING THE SLOWING TREND FROM THE LAST
SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES. WITH MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300 QVECTOR CONV
AND 800-600 MB FGEN AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH NMRS SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS UPPER MI...MAINLY FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 06Z-15Z.
ALTHOUGH ONLY MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG IS
FCST...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-45 KNOTS BRINGING 850 MB
DEWPOINTS NEAR 8C MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME ISOLD TSRA.

STRONG QVECTOR DIV AND DRYING IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD THROUGH UPPER MI
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH DROPPING 600-500 MB TEMPS AND
RESULTING NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC PROFILE AND MIXING HEIGHT TO NEAR 15K
FT...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THE STRONGEST WRLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE TYPICALLY FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
KEWEENAW WHERE GUSTS TO 40-45 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE HIGH SFC-
600MB LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
OR SPRINKLES/VIRGA DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH
MIXING DEPTH SHOULD ALSO DROP DEWPOINTS INTO THE TEENS WITH RH VALUES
TO NEAR 20 PCT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

MILD AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO START THE PERIOD BEFORE
SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN ARRIVE ON A SERIES OF TROUGHS THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015

STRONG SRLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. WINDSPEEDS WILL
BE VERY DEPENDENT ON MEASURING HEIGHT GIVEN THE STABLE TEMP PROFILE
AND MARINE LAYER OVER THE LAKE. GALES ARE STILL EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS EVENING OVER THE EAST FOR THE HIGHER PLATFORMS. BEHIND THE
TROUGH...EXPECT W WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 20 TO 30KT WITH SOME GALE
FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING
WINDS DOWN UNDER 20 KNOTS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
HYDROLOGY...TITUS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

130 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015

MON NIGHT MAY SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS LINGERING FROM MON...BUT WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE E OF THE AREA...SKIES WILL BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR. THIS WILL ALLOW INTERIOR W TEMPS TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING.

A SFC RIDGE MOVING OVER ON TUE WILL LEAD LIGHT WINDS AND SUNNY
SKIES. SHOULD BE A VERY DRY DAY WITH MIN RH VALUES AS LOW AS THE MID
TEENS INTERIOR W HALF...AND IN AND IN THE 20S ELSEWHERE AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE GREAT LAKES LAKESHORE AREAS. WIND GUSTS WILL BE IN THE
10-15MPH RANGE DURING PEAK HEATING/DRIEST CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE COOLEST OVER THE E IN THE 40S TO MID 50S DUE TO NW WINDS OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR AND WARMEST OVER THE INTERIOR WEST HALF IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S.

WED MAY BE A MORE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER DAY AS INCREASED SLY FLOW
BRINGS WARMER BUT STILL DRY AIR INTO THE REGION WITH GUSTY SLY WINDS
BETWEEN THE EXITING SFC HIGH AND AN APPROACHING SFC TROUGH. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INTERIOR W TO THE MID 50S E DOWNWIND
OF LAKE MI. SFC GUSTS TO AROUND 20MPH ARE EXPECTED. MIN RH VALUES
WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S OVER MUCH OF THE WEST HALF AND
INTERIOR E HALF...WITH RH VALUES IN THE 30S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND
LAKE MICHIGAN. THIRD DAY IN A ROW OF LOW RH VALUES COMBINED WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.

A WEAK SFC TROUGH STRETCHED BETWEEN A NRN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS CANADA AND A LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY TRANSIT
THE AREA ON THU. MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BOTH BE LIMITED...SO RAIN
CHANCES ARE VERY LOW AND TRENDING LOWER ON THU. TEMPS DO LOOK TO BE
A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S ON THU AND SFC RH WILL
BE HIGHER.

INCREASED UNCERTAINTY FRI INTO SUN AS MODELS CONTINUE THE IDEA OF
BRINGING A QUICK HITTING SHORTWAVE TO THE REGION FRI NIGHT AND A
DEEP TROUGH TO JUST W OF THE REGION LATE SUN. RAN CONSENSUS BLEND
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ266.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
HYDROLOGY...TITUS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

120 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.AVIATION...

LEAD EDGE OF VIRGA MOVED OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...BUT IT DID
MOISTEN THE AIR MASS ENOUGH FOR LATER SHOWERS TO REACH THE GROUND
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. THOSE SHOWERS SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND LIGHT
ENOUGH THAT THEY WONT BE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE ALOT OF MID
CLOUD UNTIL THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY
MORNING. UNTIL THEN STRONG SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL HAVE GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING ON MONDAY.
MVFR TO BORDERLINE IFR SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL BE
LIKELY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN 14Z AND 20Z. WILL ADD
THUNDER TO THE DETROIT CORRIDOR TAF SITES GIVEN THE LATER FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND TIME TO DESTABILIZE. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WINDS WILL
BECOME WEST AND CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND 25 KNOTS.

FOR DTW...WIND WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY LATE
MONDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS. CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IFR VISIBILITIES IN A NARROW TWO HOUR WINDOW WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 20Z MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM ON CEILING AT OR BELOW 5000 FT 14Z TO 20Z MONDAY.

* MEDIUM THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 925 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015

UPDATE...
00Z DTX SOUNDING WAS VERY DRY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER OF ONLY 0.39
INCHES. DO NOT SEE MUCH TO CHANGE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. THAT
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO EAT AWAY AT THE REMNANT MCV
SHOWERS...LEAVING NOTHING MORE THAN VIRGA AND SPRINKLES. 18Z
MODEL SUITE AND SUBSEQUENT RUNS OF THE RAP AND HRRR INDICATE VERY
LITTLE RAIN TONIGHT. HOWEVER...AS THE THETA-E SURGE MOVES OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 09Z-12Z A BETTER CHANCE OF A MEASURABLE
SHOWER.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 348 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015

SHORT TERM... LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AN OUTSTANDING EARLY SPRING AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO UNFOLD OVER
SE MICHIGAN AS MAX TEMPS MAKE A RUN AT 70 OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS.
THE THUMB SHORELINE WILL BE STUCK IN THE 40S FOR UNDER A WEAK LAKE
BREEZE WIND COMPONENT...BUT FULL SUNSHINE WILL MAKE THAT EASIER TO
TAKE. THE MILD AFTERNOON READINGS WILL THEN LEAD INTO AN EQUALLY
MILD NIGHT. BOTH A STEADY SOUTH WIND AND INCREASING CLOUDS WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES SETTLE SLOWLY INTO THE 40S OVERNIGHT.

THE PACE OF THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TOWARD EVENING AND
SPREAD SW TO NE OVER THE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL
ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE A WELL-DEFINED MCV MOVING IN FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AXIS. DYNAMIC FORCING FROM THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT BUT PRECIP
POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW. THERE ARE A FEW THINGS THAT SUPPORT LEANING
THE FORECAST TOWARD THE DRY END OF THE SPECTRUM TONIGHT. FIRST IS IR
SATELLITE INDICATING WARMING TOPS WITHIN THE MCV CIRCULATION AS THE
SYSTEM FOLLOWS A TYPICAL INVERSE DIURNAL CYCLE AND AS IT BECOMES
FURTHER DETACHED FROM THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS OVER THE PLAINS
THAT SUPPLIED THE INITIAL CONVECTION. THERE IS ALSO GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE DEPICTION OF THETA-E ADVECTION AROUND THE 700 MB
LEVEL BECOMING INCREASINGLY FRAGMENTED AS THE MOISTURE AXIS
REORGANIZES TO THE WEST AND CLOSER THE THE COLD FRONT OVER THE
MIDWEST DURING THE NIGHT. WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...A LOT OF DRY AIR
IN RESIDENCE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL EASILY EAT AWAY AT ANY HIGH
BASED SHOWER REMNANTS THAT MAKE IT THIS FAR NORTH. THE RESULT WILL
BE A PRONOUNCED PATTERN OF VIRGA ON RADAR WITH A SPRINKLE PERHAPS
REACHING THE GROUND MID TO LATE EVENING. LATER IN THE NIGHT...THE
LOW LEVEL PORTIONS OF THE WARM FRONT WILL GET BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR
THE INDIANA/OHIO BORDER. THIS WILL PRESENT A MORE CONVINCING CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TOWARD SUNRISE AND INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE-850
MB MOISTURE AXIS SURGES THROUGH SE MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM...

PROLONGED PERIOD OF S TO SWLY FLOW WILL PERSIST AND STRENGTHEN TO 15-
20KTS AND GUST AS HIGH AS 30KTS BY MONDAY AFTN AS THE SHORTWAVE OVER
THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS MORNING TRANSLATES EAST AND
LIFTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGHS WILL EASILY REACH THE MID 60S
NEARLY EVERYWHERE WITH COLD FROPA NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATE MONDAY.
TEMPS WILL POTENTIALLY REACH 70+ ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST,
INCLUDING THE DETROIT METRO AREA, BUT WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY
AFTN SHOWERS/TSTORMS MOVE IN.

SHOWERS TIED TO MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT
AND STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING ARE FORECAST TO LIFT INTO THE WESTERN
CWA DURING THE MORNING ON MONDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS BEING THE TRI-
CITIES WHERE FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED. A NOTEWORTHY CHANGE HAS THEN
BEEN OBSERVED IN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE NAM/ARW INDICATED THAT THE H7-H5
PLUME OF HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT WOULD EXIT EAST WELL IN ADVANCE OF
THE SURFACE FRONT, RESULTING IN A LARGELY DRY PASSAGE. HOWEVER,
SOLUTIONS HAVE SHOWN AN ADJUSTMENT ACROSS THE BOARD TOWARD MORE
FAVORABLE SUPERPOSITION OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE FRONTAL
FORCING. AS A RESULT, POPS WILL BE CARRIED THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND THUNDER HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST WITH A MUCH INCREASED
PROBABILITY OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NOW EXPECTED.

THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE READILY ACCESSIBLE BY ANY DEVELOPING
UPDRAFTS DUE TO FAVORABLE PEAK HEATING DURING FROPA. MOST UNSTABLE
PARCELS WILL ORIGINATE FROM THE SURFACE AND WILL CARRY CAPE OF 500-
1000 J/KG DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION.
HOWEVER, WARM MID-LEVELS WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT INTENSITY. THE LARGELY
STRAIGHT HODOGRAPH CHARACTERIZED BY 0-3KM BULK SHEAR OF 35 TO 40 KTS
WILL FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MULTICELL STRUCTURES
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS. MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL WIND FIELD
WILL LIMIT SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL, BUT AN ISOLATED THREAT COULD
EVOLVE GIVEN DIABATIC COOLING POTENTIAL WITHIN RATHER DRY
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.

HEALTHY DOSE OF COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL THEN DROP H85
TEMPS BACK NEAR 0C AND SFC TEMPS BACK TO NEAR 40F BY TUES MORNING.
DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE REINFORCED BY THE LAKE AGGREGATE. EXPECT
CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGHS 60-65.

DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS THAT DEFINED MIDWEEK WILL START TO ERODE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS RATHER
DISORGANIZED AT THE ONSET...BUT GAINES BETTER DEFINITION AS IT
PROGRESSES TOWARD THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS VARY WIDELY ON THIS
SYSTEM...BUT EURO SEEMS BEST BET AT THIS TIME. AMPLE WARM/MOIST AIR
PUSHES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND WILL ALLOW FOR A SOAKING
RAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY...WITH LINGERING SCATTERED
SHOWERS FRIDAY. PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY BY SATURDAY.

MARINE...

MODERATE SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND GUST TO 25 KNOTS
DURING THE DAY MONDAY...POSSIBLY WARRANTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
FOR MULTIPLE NEARSHORE ZONES. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON AFFECTING SOUTHERN LAKE HURON...ERIE...AND
SAINT CLAIR. GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTH OVER LAKE ERIE.
WINDS WILL THEN TURN NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE IN
THE DAY MONDAY WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING TRANQUIL TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LHZ421-422-441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ444.

AVIATION.....RBP
UPDATE.......RBP
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....JVC/DE
MARINE.......JVC

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON MS

920 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

.UPDATE...

THERE IS STILL SOME CYCLONIC FLOW TO CONTEND WITH OVERNIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT THE AIRMASS HAS STABILIZED FROM THE PREVIOUS
CONVECTIVE RAINFALL AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING HAS FURTHER
CONTRIBUTED TO THIS PROCESS. SO NOT EXPECTING ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTIVE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT GIVEN LITTLE FORCING AND HAVE CUT BACK
ON POPS. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE
FOCUSED RAINFALL WOULD BE NW OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR.
OTHERWISE...JUST MADE SOME VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OTHER WEATHER
ELEMENTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR FOG
POTENTIAL. /EC/

.AVIATION...EXPECT WIDESPREAD LIFR CATEGORY STRATUS/FOG TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...QUICKLY MIXING OUT MID/LATE
MORNING WITH HIGH-END MVFR TO VFR CATEGORY CIGS EXPECTED FOR MOST
PART IN THE AFTERNOON. SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SHOULD BE SCATTERED AT
MOST. /EC/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015/

SHORT TERM...

WEDNESDAY THE BOUNDARY WILL BE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 82. AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...THE WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL
LOUISIANA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ENE ACROSS OUR CWA. TOGETHER THESE
FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH OUR WARM AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS TO DEVELOP
AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST CONVECTION. THE SHORTWAVE AND THE
SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH OF OUR CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING LOWERING
RAIN CHANCES OVER OUR CWA THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL ROUGHLY FRI/SAT AS THE ACTIVE
SOUTHERN STREAM JET WILL AID IN PROVIDING PERIODS OF LIFT AS
FREQUENT DISTURBANCES RIDE THROUGH THE FLOW. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
WITH THE PREV MODEL RUNS...SPECIFICS IN TIMING/DETAILS REMAIN
SKETCHY AS THIS SORT OF SETUP WREAKS HAVOC ON THE MODELS AND THEIR
ABILITY TO TIME KEY FEATURES AND HOW THOSE INTERACT WITH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND IN TURN DRIVE MESO-SCALE PROCESSES. STRIPPING
THINGS DOWN TO SIMPLE TERMS...ANOMALOUS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
IN PLACE INTO LATE WEEK AND AS THIS COMBINES WITH THE ABOVE
MENTIONED DISTURBANCES...THE OPPORTUNITY FOR STORMS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING BEING ABOVE NORMAL. AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES APPEARS
POSSIBLE THU-FRI WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE CARDS. A TREND
THAT DOES SEEM A BIT MORE CLEAR IS THAT THE S/SE 2/3RDS OF THE CWA
HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL TO SEE THE HIGHER RAIN TOTALS.

FOR THE SUN-TUE PERIODS...LOOK FOR DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TO BE
THE TREND AS SOME GUIDANCE PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM FINALLY PHASES. THE GFS IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE...BUT A BLEND APPROACH IS BEST UNTIL GREATER CONSENSUS IS
MET. /CME/22/

AVIATION...VARYING FLIGHT CATEGORIES WERE BEING OBSERVED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TONIGHT FOR THE MOST PART
AS CEILINGS REMAIN LOW IN PERSISTENT STRATUS AND VISIBILITIES
PERIODICALLY DROP DUE TO INTERMITTENT RAINFALL. WHILE THESE
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR ALL TAF SITES...THEY WILL BE
MOST PROLIFIC IN THE HBG AND MEI AREAS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT SOUTHERLY AS THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFTS NORTH
TONIGHT. /26/22/

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

641 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

A slow moving upper-level low is meandering northeast through Kansas
based on latest satellite and radar imagery. This is resulting in
isolated to scattered showers over southern Missouri to
slowly lift northward. This trend will continue tonight and arranged
PoPs to build north from late this afternoon through the overnight.
Chances still look rather low and have kept PoPs below 30% through
the night and into the day Wednesday. Short-range higher resolution
models, like the WRF-ARW and NMM as well as the RUC and HRRR all show
relatively spotty shower activity through the night. But overall,
isolated to scattered showers are expected to build northward tonight
and then shift east through the day tomorrow as the upper-level low
opens up and moves away to the east.

The focus will then shift to the large upper-level trough building
into the Intermountain West. First, there is considerable
uncertainty with how this system will evolve and this is mainly due
to the potential for it to cut off and get stuck between the polar
jet to the north and the subtropical jet to the south. This is the
scenario the ECMWF and the GEM depict. However, GFS is not as strong
with the cutting off and as a result pushes east quicker. That said,
it looks like this system will remain to our west through at least
the end of the week, and possibly into the early part of next week,
allowing for southerly low-level flow to build moisture northward.
This means we`ll see the chances for showers and thunderstorms
through much, if not all of, the extended portion of the forecast.
It doesn`t look like we`ll see any widespread precipitation on any
given day, rather isolated to scattered showers and storms.
Additionally, the threat of severe weather looks low for our area as
there never really seems to be aligning of instability with
stronger shear.

Regarding temperatures, with increased cloud coverage/ precipitation
potential for each day, highs look to be fairly close to normal with
temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Later in the period, as
the upper low is expected to be closer to the region, temperatures
may top out in the mid to upper 60s. The normal high for the Kansas
City area through this period is in the upper 60s.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 640 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

VFR conditions expected through the first half of the fcst period
with -SHRA chances increasing after the 6z time frame. For the most
part...developing -SHRA activity will present limited if any VSBY
restrictions. The main concern however will be decreasing CIGS during
the early morning hrs with all indications suggesting widespread MVFR
after 12z. For now...have begun trending downward with CIGS during
the second half of the fcst period with little improvement expected
through the day as main upper wave slowly lifts northeast through the
area. Winds to remain from the east and southeast between 6-12 kts
through the fcst period.

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...32

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

108 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 415 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

Tonight:

Morning convective system certainly stabilized an already stable
boundary layer. Airmass has been slow to recover with considerable
cloud cover overspreading the region. However, still expect a line
of convection to roll through tonight, just arriving a bit later.
Attention is turned to the west as a shortwave trough rolls into the
Northern and Central High Plains. HRRR and NAM generate scattered
convection along the NE portion of the cold front. Current visible
satellite imagery indicates cumulus along the front is becoming
agitated so expect to see convection form soon. Activity then
expected to roll eastward. Modest MLCAPEs from 1000-1500J/kg and
30kt 0-6km shear should support some strong/possibly severe storms
to our west by the time the convection moves into our CWA after 03Z
the instability should have waned and convection weakened. A few
storms could produce some sub-severe hail and gusty winds believe
the main concern revolves around locally heavy rainfall. Some areas
could pick up over an inch of rain as the line of storms move
through. All of the precipitation should have exited the eastern CWA
by 12z Monday.

Monday - Tuesday:

Fairly quiet period marked by weak surface high pressure moving in
the wake of the departed cold front. Weak return flow on Tuesday
with little day-to-day temperature change with slightly above
average readings. No discernible affect on sensible weather other
than increasing clouds.

Wednesday/Wednesday night:

The current closed upper low now over northern Mexico is expected to
weaken as it lifts north-northeast through the Central Plains and
CWA. While there should be decent moisture lifted northward with
this feature minimal instability will limit amount of thunder. Given
that the operational models have been generating a similar solution
believe 30-40 PoPs are warranted for scattered convection.

Thursday - Sunday:

Roll of the dice as to how weather will evolve from Thursday through
Sunday. Not especially fond of the blended model approach of carpet
bombing chance PoPs in every period. The medium range models drop a
deep upper trough into the Desert Southwest and then cut it off.
Models typically are challenged significantly with these features
initially. They tend to lift them out too soon and too far east. Will
be interesting to see how this system is handled going forward.
Difficult trying to time any weak impulse ejected from this system
within the downstream southwesterly flow. For now will handle this
with low chance PoPs with above average temperatures.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 108 AM CDT MON APR 13 2015

Line of storms exiting most of the KC area at this time with some
light rain and a few in-cloud lightning strikes likely to linger
through 08Z or 09Z. Low clouds will scatter out by 12Z with just some
scattered mid-level clouds for the remainder of the period.

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Hawblitzel

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BILLINGS MT

833 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2015

.UPDATE...

MINOR UPDATE THIS EVENING TO DROP THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY LIGHTNING
ANYWHERE NEAR THE REGION ALL EVENING. IT IS STILL VERY DRY OUT
THERE...AND LOSING DAYTIME HEATING WILL FURTHER HINDER ANY
DEVELOPMENT.

ONLY OTHER CHANGE THAT WAS CONSIDERED WAS WHETHER TO CANCEL RED
FLAG WARNING OR NOT. WE ARE GOING TO CONTINUE WITH RED FLAG
WARNING AT THIS TIME...SINCE WINDS ARE STILL QUITE GUSTY AND RH
VALUES ARE STILL QUITE LOW IN MANY AREAS. WE DO EXPECT TO BE ABLE
TO GET RID OF THAT WARNING A LITTLE LATER TONIGHT. AAG

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL HAVE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH...CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS...A LOW-END CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM...WINDS
GUSTING OVER 50 MPH...AND FINALLY SNOW. SPRINGTIME AT ITS BEST.

AS OF 3 PM MDT...DEEPENING MIXING IS YIELDING RED FLAG CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
THE MUCH-ADVERTISED STRONG COLD FRONT IS GAINING STEAM AND HAS
JUST PASSED BOZEMAN. MULTI-RUN HRRR SIMULATIONS AND OTHER 12 UTC
HIGH-RESOLUTION AND EVEN GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH LIVINGSTON BY LATE AFTERNOON...BILLINGS BETWEEN
6 AND 8 PM MDT...SHERIDAN AND MILES CITY BETWEEN 9 PM AND 11 PM
MDT...AND FINALLY BAKER AND EKALAKA BETWEEN 1 AM AND 3 AM MDT. WE
EXPECT STRONG POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT GIVEN
STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES. THE SNAP-
EFFECT SEEN IN MODELED 850-MB ISOTHERMS WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
OFTEN A GOOD SIGNATURE OF 40+ MPH GUSTS AND GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF
THE ISOTHERM PACKING IN THIS SCENARIO GUSTS SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT
HIGHER THAN THAT. HRRR WIND GUST SIMULATIONS KEEP SPEEDS UNDER 60
MPH SO WE HAVE REFRAINED FROM ISSUING A HIGH WIND WARNING AT THIS
JUNCTURE...BUT WE HAVE GUSTS TO 55 MPH IN OUR FORECAST AND WE ARE
EXPECTING THIS TO BE A DRAMATIC CHANGE WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO
CONSTRUCTION SITES AND OTHER SPRING PROJECTS. THUS...WE WILL BE
MESSAGING THE STRONG WINDS TO THE PUBLIC AND OUR PARTNERS AND IF
LATER TRENDS SUGGEST EVEN STRONGER WINDS WE MIGHT STILL NEED TO
ISSUE A HIGH WIND WARNING OVER PARTS OF THE AREA FOR THE EVENING.

THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MUCH BUOYANCY DESPITE
ITS STEEP LAPSE RATES...SO WE ARE EXPECTING ALL OF THE RAIN AND
SNOW TO BE POST-FRONTAL. SHOWERS WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT AS
FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES ALOFT AND A THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
AS WELL THIS EVENING GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT WE
FEEL THE PROBABILITY OF MORE THAN A SHORT-LIVED STORM IS RATHER
LOW. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW COULD ALSO ENHANCE WINDS...EVEN IF IT IS
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF NON-THUNDER-SHOWERS...BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THERE WILL BE A LAG BEHIND THE LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL SURGE AND SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT /WHICH IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT DRY AIR
MASS/. THUS...OUTFLOW MAY NOT HAVE MUCH ADDITIONAL IMPACT ON
INCREASING WINDS THAN IF SHOWERS FORMED RIGHT ON THE FRONT. WE
WILL WATCH RADAR TRENDS TO SEE IF THEY DO MANAGE TO FORM CLOSE TO
THE SURFACE FRONTAL SURGE THOUGH...WHICH COULD TIP THE SCALES TO A
MORE BONAFIDE HIGH WIND EVENT.

REGARDLESS...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY FILL IN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND
NORTH CENTRAL WY OVERNIGHT AND LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AND WE STILL
EXPECT A QUICK CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW. A FEW INCHES OF WET SNOW WILL
LIKELY ACCUMULATE IN AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS AND SO WE HAVE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES IN PLACE THERE. WE ALSO ADDED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY INTO SOUTHERN BIG HORN AND SHERIDAN COUNTIES SINCE THOSE
AREAS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT TO SNOWFALL. WE
AGAIN LEANED TOWARD THE SOMEWHAT DRIER SIDE OF MODEL OUTPUT TODAY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH CONSISTENCY IN EVEN THE DRIER AND LIKELY
MORE REALISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR US TO EXPECT SOME ACCUMULATIONS
OF WET SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. ROADS COULD HAVE SOME IMPACTS
LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WHERE IT SNOWS THE HARDEST OVER
THE FOOTHILLS TOO...BUT OTHER SPOTS AWAY FROM THE FOOTHILLS WHERE
PRECIPITATION INTENSITY IS LIKELY TO BE LESS WILL LIKELY ONLY GET
SNOWFALL ON GRASSY SURFACES. THAT WOULD INCLUDE BILLINGS...WHERE
WE HAVE 1 TO MAYBE 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH
THE IDEA THAT ROADS WILL ONLY BE WET EVEN IF IT DOES SNOW AS
FORECAST.

FINALLY...WE COMPLETELY SET ASIDE THE 12 UTC GFS SOLUTION HEADING
INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SINCE IT IS A DISTINCT OUTLIER FROM
ALL OTHER MODEL OUTPUT IN CLOSING OFF A SEPARATE...NORTHERN-STREAM
CLOSED MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN NORTHEAST WY AND NORTHWEST SD
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THAT SIMULATION ACTUALLY YIELDS VERY HEAVY
AND WET SNOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT...BUT AGAIN WE HAVE DISCOUNTED
THAT POSSIBILITY FOR NOW SINCE IT HAS NO SUPPORT IN OTHER MODEL
GUIDANCE. SOUTHEASTERN MT MAY WELL GET SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW AS
SHOWN EVEN IN THE PREFERRED 12 UTC NAM AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS...BUT
WE DON/T FORESEE A WARNING-LEVEL EVENT IN THAT AREA LIKE THE GFS
WOULD HAVE US BELIEVE. SCHULTZ

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT FRIDAY AS THEY ARE STILL
TRYING TO RESOLVE DIFFERENCES FROM THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY STORM
SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. BUT IN
GENERAL...CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRY BUT DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW ARE RESULTING IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE DISCREPANCIES.
AS A RESULT...WILL TAKE A BLEND OF THE MODELS KEEPING READINGS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FOR NOW.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...LEE-SIDE TROUGHING SETS UP FRIDAY NIGHT
CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED DUE TO PRE-FRONTAL
WARMING. EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO USHER IN BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING A QUICK SHOT OF
SHOWERS WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA
FOOTHILLS SOUTHEAST TO THE BIG HORN FOOTHILLS...AS WELL AS FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN BIG HORN COUNTY EAST AND SOUTH INTO
POWDER RIVER AND SHERIDAN COUNTIES.

SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON
BAY AREA WILL RESULT IN A CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF MONTANA. THIS WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF REINFORCING COLD
FRONTS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY
EAST TOWARD THE DAKOTA BORDERS. OVERALL...AFTER SUNDAY...SHOWER
CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS CROSSING THE REGION THIS EVENING. A DRASTIC
WIND SHIFT AND INCREASE IN WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE FROPA.
WINDS WENT FROM CALM CONDITIONS IN BILLINGS TO NORTH WEST AND
GUSTING TO 54 MPH. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH POSSIBLE...THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED INTO KSHR BY 04Z...KMLS AROUND 05Z AND FAR
SOUTHEAST MONTANA AROUND 09Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE FRONT...WITH IMPROVED POTENTIAL BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW LATE TONIGHT RESULTING IN
LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OF MVFR/IFR BY 12Z WEDNESDAY
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A KSHR-KBIL LINE. THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE
OBSCURED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. AAG

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 036/046 031/059 036/064 041/067 039/057 035/060 039/063
86/W 10/U 00/U 02/W 22/W 21/B 12/W
LVM 032/045 025/058 034/065 038/064 034/055 032/059 036/061
95/W 00/U 00/U 02/W 23/W 21/B 12/W
HDN 036/046 030/060 035/066 037/070 036/059 033/061 035/063
88/W 20/B 00/U 01/B 32/W 21/B 12/W
MLS 042/049 032/061 036/067 040/070 037/058 033/059 035/057
47/W 30/U 00/U 01/U 23/W 11/B 11/B
4BQ 039/044 032/055 032/065 037/070 036/057 032/058 034/059
38/W 51/B 00/U 01/U 33/W 11/B 11/B
BHK 041/051 033/059 033/065 036/069 035/056 031/056 032/053
26/W 41/B 00/U 01/U 33/W 11/B 11/B
SHR 035/038 029/054 031/061 035/067 034/054 031/057 034/060
79/J 51/B 00/U 01/B 43/W 22/W 22/W

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING BELOW
6000 FEET FOR ZONES 28-34-39>41-56-63>68.
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
ZONES 29>33-35>38-42-57-58.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
MIDNIGHT MDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ZONE 38.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT WEDNESDAY
FOR ZONES 40-56-64>66.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
ZONES 98-99.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
MIDNIGHT MDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES 98-99.

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BILLINGS MT

831 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2015

.UPDATE...

MINOR UPDATE THIS EVENING TO DROP THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE FORECAST. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY LIGHTNING ANYWHERE NEAR THE
REGION ALL EVENING. IT IS STILL VERY DRY OUT THERE...AND LOSING
DAYTIME HEATING WILL FURTHER HINDER ANY DEVELOPMENT.

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL HAVE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH...CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS...A LOW-END CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM...WINDS
GUSTING OVER 50 MPH...AND FINALLY SNOW. SPRINGTIME AT ITS BEST.

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

.AVIATION...

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS CROSSING THE REGION THIS EVENING. DRASTIC
WIND SHIFT INCREASE IN WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE FROPA. WINDS
WENT FROM CALM CONDITIONS IN BILLINGS TO NORTH WEST AND GUSTING TO
54 MPH. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
GUSTS AROUND 50MPH POSSIBLE...THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED INTO KSHR BY 04Z...KMLS AROUND 05Z AND FAR
SOUTHEAST MONTANA BY 09Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
FRONT...WITH IMPROVED POTENTIAL BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW LATE TONIGHT RESULTING IN
LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OF MVFR/IFR BY 12Z WEDNESDAY
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A KSHR-KBIL LINE. THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE
OBSCURED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. AAG

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
125 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE SPRING SEASON TO OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST LOCATIONS
GETTING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER
THIS FRONT PASSES BY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH DOWN FROM CANADA
WITH FAIR WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO 60 DEGREES.

AFTER THIS FIRST WAVE PASSES BY SOME CIRRUS AND PATCHY MIDDLE
CLOUD WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT AND
MORE POTENT UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS WAVE WILL MAKE IT TO NORTHERN AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY 00Z.
SO MORE PATCHY CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.

AS FOR THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION NO MODEL HAS ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT BEFORE 00Z. WE LOOKED AT THE
FOLLOWING MODELS AND ALL SHOW NO QPF AND/OR RADAR RETURNS IN
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PA BEFORE 00Z TUE: 00Z NAM...00Z
GFS...00Z UKMET...00Z CMC...00Z RGEM...00Z WRF ARW...00Z WRF
NMM...LATEST RAP...00Z 2.5 KM CANADIAN MODEL...12Z EURO AND THE
21Z SREF. THE 21Z SREF AND 00Z GFS HAVE SOME VERY LIGHT QPF(.01
INCH) WITH THIS FIRST UPPER WAVE WHICH DOESN/T LOOK LIKE IT WILL
PAN OUT BASED ON OBS UPSTREAM. SO HAVE POPS LESS THAN 15 PCT
BEFORE 00Z TUE ALL ZONES.

FOR TONIGHT...MODEL CONSENSUS FROM ALL OF THE ABV MODELS BRINGS A
LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TO THE WRN FINGER LAKES BY
03Z...COOPERSTOWN TO BGM AND TOWANDA BY 6Z AND THE
CATSKILLS/POCONOS BTWN 9Z AND 12Z. CONCUR WITH BUF/S IDEA OF SOME
SORT OF LOW CAPE / HIGH SHEAR SQUALL LINE IN WRN NY AS THERE WILL
BE SOME MINIMAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN CAPE THERE. TIMING OF FRNT
SUGGESTS THAT THIS CAPE WILL BECOME ELEVATED BY NIGHTFALL WITH NEG
SHOWALTER INDICES AND SFC BASED CAPES DROPPING OFF OVERNIGHT. 0-1
KM BULK SHEAR IS ABOUT 40 KNOTS WITH 0-3 KM ABOUT 45 KNOTS OR SO.
SINCE THE CONVECTIVE SHRA ARE STRONGLY FORCED THE SHEAR LIKELY
WON/T RIP APART THE UPRIGHT CONVECTION. SO WE SEE A SQUALL LINE
WITH SOME THUNDER MOVING TOWARD THE FINGER LAKES BY 00Z THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY GO ELEVATED AS IT REACHES THE FINGER LAKES BY 1-3Z BUT
WITH NEG SHOWALTER INDICES STILL HAVE CHC FOR THUNDER AS THE
FRONT GOES THROUGH ENTIRE AREA OVERNIGHT. I DON/T BELIEVE OUR
AREA IS UNDER RISK FOR ANY SEVERE CONVECTION AS BNDRY LAYER
COOLING BTWN 3-9Z WILL TAKE PLACE AS ACVTY MOVES THRU PRECLUDES ANY
STRG DOWNDRAFTS FROM REACHING THE GROUND WITH FULL FORCE. I CAN
SEE SOME GUSTS TO 35-40 KNOTS OR SO BRIEFLY ESP IN THE FINGER
LAKES AREA.

QPF WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE ARND .25 TO .50 INCHES AND WILL NOT
CAUSE ANY HYDRO ISSUES AT THIS POINT EXCEPT KEEP RIVERS AND
STREAMS RUNNING HIGH WITH NO FLOOD ISSUES THRU MID-WEEK.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER FROPA ON TUESDAY...ASIDE FROM SOME ISOLATED SHRA LINGERING
IN THE POCONOS/WRN CATSKILLS BTWN 12Z AND 14Z REST OF C NY AND NE
PA WILL SEE NO PRECIP AS AGAIN MODEL CONSENSUS IS DRY. LOOKING AT
850 MB TEMPS AND SFC DEWPOINTS IT DOESN/T EVEN LOOK LIKE MUCH CU
FORMS TUE EXCEPT IN NC NY WHERE COLDER AIR AT 850 MB WILL BE
PRESENT TUESDAY. MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND
COOLER.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND LASTS THROUGH WED
AND WED NGT WITH FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH
MAXES REACHING INTO CLOSE TO OR ABOVE 60F EACH DAY.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
400 AM UPDATE...
OVERALL...THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS PRETTY CLOSE TO EARLIER
THINKING AS 00Z GUIDANCE WAS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF THE NEED FOR ANY
MAJOR SWING. MODELS AGREE THAT THE PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE
TO START WITH FAST MOVING TRANSIENT SYSTEMS EVERY OTHER DAY. DID
MAKE CHANGES TO PUSH BACK ON SHOWER CHANCES FOR THURS-THURS
EVENING AS MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF A MID-LVL TROF LOOKS SLOWER
WITH HIGH PRESSURE HANGING ON THE EAST COAST. FRIDAY-SATURDAY
STILL LOOKS DAMP WITH PASSING COLD FRONTS AND A LOW SKIRTING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. HIGH PRESSURE...BUT A COOLER THAN NORMAL
AIRMASS ARRIVES ON SUNDAY THEN TRANSITS OFFSHORE BY MONDAY. THE
MODELS THEN DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR MONDAY...BUT THIS IS TO BE
EXPECTED AS MANY OF THE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL
SPRING BLOCKING PATTERN TRYING TO SET UP ACROSS THE NRN
HEMISPHERE. LET`S HOPE WE WIND UP ON THE GOOD SIDE OF THAT ONE.

TEMPERATURES ROUND OUT THE WEEK IN SEASONABLE FASHION WITH COOLER
THAN NORMAL SUNDAY-MONDAY.

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
125 PM UPDATE.

SOME MID LVL CLDS EARLIER THIS MORNING...WITH REMAINS OF PLAINS
SYSTEM LIFTING NE ACROSS N PA AND NY STATE.

AT THE CURRENT TIME...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL...WITH JUST SOME MID
AND HIGH CLDS.

EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO PICK UP THIS AFT...AS THE GRADIENT
INCREASES...AND MORE MIXING OCCURS.

EXPECT SOME SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. LEFT THUNDER OUT.
INSTABILITY NOT REAL HIGH...AND HEIGHT FALLS LIMITED. WINDS MAY
BE GUSTY AROUND SHOWERS...GIVEN DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS. MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR FEW HOURS.

DID NOT MAKE ANY LARGE CHANGES...JUST SLOWED FRONT DOWN BY AN HOUR
OR SO ACROSS THE EAST AND SE SITES.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF TUE INTO WED. MOST LIKELY
THU TOO...AS NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE EVEN SLOWER ON THE NEW MODEL
RUNS TODAY.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE...BECMG VFR.

WED-THU...VFR.

THU NGT-SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA.

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...WFO CTP
NEAR TERM...WFO CTP
SHORT TERM...WFO CTP
LONG TERM...WFO CTP
AVIATION...WFO CTP/MARTIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

1104 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

QPF WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE ARND .25 TO .50 INCHES AND WILL NOT
CAUSE ANY HYDRO ISSUES AT THIS POINT EXCEPT KEEP RIVERS AND
STREAMS RUNNING HIGH WITH NO FLOOD ISSUES THRU MID-WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND LASTS THROUGH WED
AND WED NGT WITH FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH
MAXES REACHING INTO CLOSE TO OR ABOVE 60F EACH DAY.

TEMPERATURES ROUND OUT THE WEEK IN SEASONABLE FASHION WITH COOLER
THAN NORMAL SUNDAY-MONDAY.

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
150 AM UPDATE...MAIN AVIATION CONCERN TODAY WILL BE STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND GUSTY LOW LVL TURBULENCE. EXPECT LIGHT E-SE
LOCAL DRAINAGE FLOWS EARLY TODAY FOLLOWED BY WINDS VEERING S-SSW
AND INCRG 10-20 SUSTAINED...GUSTING 25-30 KTS BY LATE MORNING AND
THIS AFTN AHEAD OF APCHG COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT SNAPS WINDS AROUND
TO W-NW JUST PRIOR TO END OF FCST PERIOD AT 10-15 KTS.

VFR WITH INCRG MID-HIGH LVL CIGS TODAY AND THIS EVENING...LOWERING
CONSIDERABLY AROUND FROPA WITH AREAS MVFR IN SHOWERS. FRONT HAS A
LITTLE ENERGY WITH IT...BUT FOR NOW THE CHC FOR TSRA SEEMS LOW.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE...BECMG VFR.

WED-THU...VFR.

THU NGT-FRI...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA.

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...WFO CTP
NEAR TERM...WFO CTP
SHORT TERM...WFO CTP
LONG TERM...WFO CTP
AVIATION...WFO CTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

403 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND
BRING SOME PATCHY CLOUDS WITH IT. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SPRING SEASON TO
OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST LOCATIONS GETTING INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER THIS FRONT PASSES BY,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH DOWN FROM CANADA WITH FAIR WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 60 DEGREES.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WAVE WAS
MOISTURE STARVED AND WAS SUPPORTING MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS. LATEST
RAP AND HRRR BRING THIS WAVE ACROSS NORTHEAST PA AND CENTRAL NY BY
15-18Z WITH ONLY SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH IT. RADARS TO OUR WEST SHOW SOME SPOTTY PRECIP
ECHOES MAKING THEIR WAY THROUGH A MAJOR BIRD MIGRATION PATTERN
WHICH CAN BE SEEN ACROSS NY AND PA AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST EARLY
THIS MORNING. SO WILL HAVE CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FIRST SHORT WAVE.

QPF WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE ARND .25 TO .50 INCHES AND WILL NOT
CAUSE ANY HYDRO ISSUES AT THIS POINT EXCEPT KEEP RIVERS AND
STREAMS RUNNING HIGH WITH NO FLOOD ISSUES THRU MID-WEEK.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER FROPA ON TUESDAY...ASIDE FROM SOME ISOLATED SHRA LINGERING
IN THE POCONOS/WRN CATSKILLS BTWN 12Z AND 14Z REST OF C NY AND NE
PA WILL SEE NO PRECIP AS AGAIN MODEL CONSENSUS IS DRY. LOOKING AT
850 MB TEMPS AND SFC DEWPOINTS IT DOESN/T EVEN LOOK LIKE MUCH CU
FORMS TUE EXCEPT IN NC NY WHERE COLDER AIR AT 850 MB WILL BE
PRESENT TUESDAY. MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND
COOLER.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND LASTS THROUGH WED
AND WED NGT WITH FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH
MAXES REACHING INTO CLOSE TO OR ABOVE 60F EACH DAY.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
400 AM UPDATE...
OVERALL...THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS PRETTY CLOSE TO EARLIER
THINKING AS 00Z GUIDANCE WAS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF THE NEED FOR ANY
MAJOR SWING. MODELS AGREE THAT THE PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE
TO START WITH FAST MOVING TRANSIENT SYSTEMS EVERY OTHER DAY. DID
MAKE CHANGES TO PUSH BACK ON SHOWER CHANCES FOR THURS-THURS
EVENING AS MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF A MID-LVL TROF LOOKS SLOWER
WITH HIGH PRESSURE HANGING ON THE EAST COAST. FRIDAY-SATURDAY
STILL LOOKS DAMP WITH PASSING COLD FRONTS AND A LOW SKIRTING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. HIGH PRESSURE...BUT A COOLER THAN NORMAL
AIRMASS ARRIVES ON SUNDAY THEN TRANSITS OFFSHORE BY MONDAY. THE
MODELS THEN DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR MONDAY...BUT THIS IS TO BE
EXPECTED AS MANY OF THE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL
SPRING BLOCKING PATTERN TRYING TO SET UP ACROSS THE NRN
HEMISPHERE. LET`S HOPE WE WIND UP ON THE GOOD SIDE OF THAT ONE.

TEMPERATURES ROUND OUT THE WEEK IN SEASONABLE FASHION WITH COOLER
THAN NORMAL SUNDAY-MONDAY.

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
150 AM UPDATE...MAIN AVIATION CONCERN TODAY WILL BE STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND GUSTY LOW LVL TURBULENCE. EXPECT LIGHT E-SE
LOCAL DRAINAGE FLOWS EARLY TODAY FOLLOWED BY WINDS VEERING S-SSW
AND INCRG 10-20 SUSTAINED...GUSTING 25-30 KTS BY LATE MORNING AND
THIS AFTN AHEAD OF APCHG COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT SNAPS WINDS AROUND
TO W-NW JUST PRIOR TO END OF FCST PERIOD AT 10-15 KTS.

VFR WITH INCRG MID-HIGH LVL CIGS TODAY AND THIS EVENING...LOWERING
CONSIDERABLY AROUND FROPA WITH AREAS MVFR IN SHOWERS. FRONT HAS A
LITTLE ENERGY WITH IT...BUT FOR NOW THE CHC FOR TSRA SEEMS LOW.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE...BECMG VFR.

WED-THU...VFR.

THU NGT-FRI...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA.

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE WILL APPROACH RED FLAG CODITIONS IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS WILL EXCEED 20 MPH IN NORTHEAST PA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH 10 HOUR FUELS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. MAIN QUESTION
IS WHETHER DEWPOINTS LOW ENUF WITH MAX TEMPS HIGH ENUF. MODELS
DEWPOINTS AS WELL AS MAX TEMPERATURE BRING RH/S DOWN TO THE LOWER
30S PERCENT SO WE APPROACH RED FLAG CRITERIA IN NORTHEAST PA.
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING NWS OFFICES NO RED FLAG
WARNINGS ISSUED THIS SHIFT BUT IT COULD COME CLOSE IN A FEW SPOTS
IN NORTHEAST PA THIS AFTERNOON. IN CENTRAL NY WE DON/T MEET THE 5
DAY LESS THAN QUARTER INCH OF RAIN CRITERIA SO NO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS FOR NEW YORK STATE.

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAB
FIRE WEATHER...DJN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

320 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

QPF WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE ARND .25 TO .50 INCHES AND WILL NOT
CAUSE ANY HYDRO ISSUES AT THIS POINT EXCEPT KEEP RIVERS AND
STREAMS RUNNING HIGH WITH NO FLOOD ISSUES THRU MID-WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND LASTS THROUGH WED
AND WED NGT WITH FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH
MAXES REACHING INTO CLOSE TO OR ABOVE 60F EACH DAY.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE...

FAIRLY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR UNSETTLED
WEATHER COMING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND. AN H5 RIDGE WILL KEEP OUR AREA DRY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS OR IN THE 60S.

BY EARLY FRIDAY THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS A SHORT WAVE
MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCES FOR
RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER A PERIOD OF
DRIER WEATHER LATER FRIDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER. THIS FRONT WILL
KEEP TEMPS MORE IN THE 50S OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DRIER
WEATHER AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY.

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
150 AM UPDATE...MAIN AVIATION CONCERN TODAY WILL BE STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND GUSTY LOW LVL TURBULENCE. EXPECT LIGHT E-SE
LOCAL DRAINAGE FLOWS EARLY TODAY FOLLOWED BY WINDS VEERING S-SSW
AND INCRG 10-20 SUSTAINED...GUSTING 25-30 KTS BY LATE MORNING AND
THIS AFTN AHEAD OF APCHG COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT SNAPS WINDS AROUND
TO W-NW JUST PRIOR TO END OF FCST PERIOD AT 10-15 KTS.

VFR WITH INCRG MID-HIGH LVL CIGS TODAY AND THIS EVENING...LOWERING
CONSIDERABLY AROUND FROPA WITH AREAS MVFR IN SHOWERS. FRONT HAS A
LITTLE ENERGY WITH IT...BUT FOR NOW THE CHC FOR TSRA SEEMS LOW.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE...BECMG VFR.

WED-THU...VFR.

THU NGT-FRI...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA.

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...HEDEN/JAB
FIRE WEATHER...DJN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

824 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.
A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTH...WILL KEEP
THE WEATHER UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...KEEPING SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST. IT WILL BE WARM AND UNSETTLED DURING THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM TUESDAY...WAVE #1 OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS PUSHED
THROUGH THE AREA...AND A MINI DRY PUNCH IS NOW MOVING IN ON WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS. NEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS...A FEW OF WHICH SHOULD AFFECT BENNETTSVILLE...LUMBERTON
AND MAYBE ELIZABETHTOWN. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS WE MAY SEE A FEW
MORE OF THESE SHOWERS FIRE UP THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH PERHAPS A
SECOND BATCH OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. FEW CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO
TEMPERATURES OR WINDS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THE 18Z GFS IS THE
FASTEST OF ALL THE MODELS WITH THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT. THE 18Z NAM AGREES MUCH MORE CLOSELY WITH THE BULK OF THE
REST OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE. DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

ENTRENCHED IN WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 THIS AFTERNOON AND TEMPS BETWEEN 75 TO
80 MOST PLACES AWAY FROM THE COAST. MAY SEE SOME SKIES BRIGHTEN
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD HELP PROPEL TEMPS UP A LITTLE FURTHER.
DEEP MOISTURE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH PCP WATER VALUES UP
CLOSE TO 2 INCHES AND SOUNDING PARAMETERS ALL POINTING TO
POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS. THE PRIMARY FOCUS WOULD BE FURTHER NW INTO
CENTRAL CAROLINAS AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...BUT A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER TO ENHANCE ANY CONVECTION OVER OUR
LOCAL FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVE. HRRR AND NAM SHOWING
CONVECTION PICKING UP BETWEEN 19Z AND 00Z MOVING ACROSS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER THROUGH THE LOW
LEVELS AND MAY SEE GREATER WIND SHEAR WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ESPECIALLY
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTN TO SEE SOME ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS. SPC
HAS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA IN MARGINAL RISK WITH
STRONGER WIND THREAT...BUT MAIN THREAT AREA SHOULD REMAIN FARTHER
TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

ONCE THIS SHORTWAVE RIDES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING...SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA
ON THE BACK END. WINDS SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH
THE LOW LEVELS AS COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. GFS
SHOWS A DROP IN PCP WATER DOWN TO 1.5 INCHES BY THIS EVENING. HRRR
SHOWS SHOWERS MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LEAVING ONLY ISOLATED
SHWRS OVER LOCAL AREA UNTIL COLD FRONT REACHES THE AREA LATER IN
THE NIGHT.

COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING
AROUND FURTHER...BECOMING NORTH BEHIND FRONT. SHOULD SEE ANOTHER
POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY AS COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AREA OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 3 AM AND DAYBREAK.
COOLER AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY IN BEHIND FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE
RUNNING WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA BY MORNING. TEMPS
SHOULD DROP BELOW 60 BY DAYBREAK OVER MOST OF AREA.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...COMPLICATED FORECAST WITH MANY MOVING
PARTS AND GIVEN THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS...IT DOES MAKE IT
DIFFICULT TO BE OVERLY CONFIDENT AS TO WHEN TO INCLUDE THE HIGHEST
POPS. HIGHLY CONFIDENT RAINFALL WILL OCCUR AT ALL LOCATIONS AT
SOME POINT DURING THIS PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL BE SAGGING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WED MORNING WITH A SHORT-LIVED
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST WED
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT AND SO WILL KEEP A PESSIMISTIC FORECAST WITH
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIKELY POPS.

SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW...BUT AGAIN THE
TIMING AND POSITIONAL DISCREPANCIES PERSIST. FINALLY...LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH AND MOVE SLOWLY UP
THE COAST...PERHAPS MAKING ITS CLOSEST APPROACH THU NIGHT AND
FRI. ASSOCIATED LIFT SHOULD BE HIGHEST ON THE COAST DURING THIS
TIME...BUT WITH DEEP MOISTURE RETURNING...WILL KEEP THE POPS HIGH
THROUGHOUT.

CLOUD COVER WILL SHRINK THE DIURNAL RANGE WITH HIGH TEMPS
REMAINING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND LOW TEMPS REMAINING
ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...DEEP MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW ACROSS TX/NM
WILL LIFT SLOWLY NE WHILE OPENING THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE
DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY WITHIN THE MEDIUM RANGE IN THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS FEATURE...AS THE GFS DIGS IT QUITE DEEP TOWARDS THE GOM AND
BRINGS A POTENT VORT IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEP THE FEATURE DEFLECTED WELL
TO THE NORTH AND THUS CREATES NO NOTICEABLE AIR MASS CHANGE DURING
THE PERIOD. HESITATE TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
EXTENDED WHICH WERE BASED PRIMARILY ON THE GFS...BUT WITH A STRONG
RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK...WILL BLEND
SOME SUPPORT TO THE ECM SOLUTION. THIS PRODUCES SEASONABLE TO
ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED...ALONG WITH A
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL EACH DAY AS A REMNANT FRONT WAVERS IN THE
VICINITY ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS WITHIN DEEP SW FLOW. BEST
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD
HOWEVER...THANKS TO A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE FRIDAY
WITH A RENEWED PUSH OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY BEHIND IT. A DRYING
TREND LOOKS TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...SHRA HAVE SOME POTENTIAL TO AFFECT TAF SITES THIS
EVENING...MAINLY AT INLAND SITES WHERE TERMINAL FORECASTS CONTAIN
TEMPO OR VC GROUP FOR SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS
A FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. PROBS AT INDIVIDUAL
TAFS SITES ARE LOW SO SHOWERS ARE NOT INCLUDED. MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY...OCNL IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT
DROPS INTO AND PASSES THROUGH THE AREA AFTER DAYBREAK. POST FRONTAL
STRATUS/SC SHOULD CONTINUE IFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS RAIN SETS UP OVER MUCH OF THE ARE IN THE 12Z TO 15Z
WINDOW. LIGHT S TO SW WINDS TONIGHT WILL VEER TO THE NE AROUND 10
KT AT OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WED
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A WEDGE. IMPROVING CONDITIONS FRI.
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH A COLD FRONT.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. I HAVE DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD
FRONT BY A COUPLE OF HOURS BASED ON THE 18Z NAM AGREEING WITH THE
BULK OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE. DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

SOUTH TO SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. AS THE FRONT
DRAWS CLOSER...THE WINDS WILL PICK UP SLIGHTLY AS THEY VEER
FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY AROUND TO THE NORTH BEHIND
THE FRONT. LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT WILL RUN WEST TO EAST ACROSS
SOUTH CAROLINA BISECTING LOCAL WATERS BY DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE GENERAL 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...WITH SEAS RANGING FROM
2 TO 4 FT MOST PLACES WITH A SLIGHT RISE OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A NE SURGE WILL GET UNDERWAY IN THE WAKE OF
A SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU. AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTH AND MOVES UP THE COAST...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN...ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT INTO THU AND THIS IS
WHEN I WILL FORECAST THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS...UP TO
20 TO 25 KT AND 5 TO 8 FT SEAS. I EXPECT A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY WED EVE AND THEN PERSIST INTO
THU WITH SEAS PERHAPS NOT SUBSIDING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA UNTIL
THU NIGHT...PERHAPS NOT UNTIL FRI MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BE NEARLY DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD FRIDAY MORNING...WITH MOST OF THE STRONG WINDS/TIGHT
GRADIENT NORTH OF THE REGION TO START THE PERIOD. WINDS TURN TO AN
OFFSHORE COMPONENT MUCH OF FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEHIND THIS LOW
PRESSURE...BEFORE BERMUDA TYPE RIDGE BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE
ONCE AGAIN WITH SW FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE
QUICKLY BECOMING NE AS A COLD FRONT DROPS BACK ACROSS THE WATERS
SUNDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS REGARDLESS OF
DIRECTION. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE HIGHEST FRIDAY MORNING AS RESIDUAL
WIND WAVE/SWELL FROM FRIDAY SLOWLY FALLS ACROSS THE WATERS...AND
3-5 FT SEAS WILL BE COMMON THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY. SEAS WILL
THEN FALL TO 2-4 FT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY
WAVE WILL FOLLOW THE WINDS THROUGH THE WKND.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...TRA/RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...31

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

803 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

CLOUD COVER WILL SHRINK THE DIURNAL RANGE WITH HIGH TEMPS
REMAINING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND LOW TEMPS REMAINING
ABOVE NORMAL.

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...STILL NOT VERY CONFIDENT ABOUT CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL LEAN ON THE HRRR MODEL THAT SHOWS A PRETTY DECENT
BAND OF CONVECTION SETTING UP BETWEEN FLO AND THE MYRTLES BY 20Z.
THIS ACTIVITY IS COURTESY OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED WEST OF THE
REGION WITH SPOKES OF VORTICITY ROTATING EAST OF THE LOW. THE LAST
VORT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES.

TONIGHT...STRATUS WILL AGAIN SET UP...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A BACK DOOR FRONT DROPS IN.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME PRECIP ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT...PROBABLY MORE DRIZZLE THAN RAIN.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...TRA/RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

337 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY
TO A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SET UP A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH THAT WILL KEEP THE LATE WEEK WEATHER RATHER
UNSETTLED. THIS MAY PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...ON SHORE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY
THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ALLOWING COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT TO MOVE INLAND
AND NORTH. BASICALLY WILL SEE E-NE WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO SE-S.
THIS WILL PRODUCE INCREASING FETCH OF MOISTURE FEED FROM THE
ATLANTIC CLOSER TO THE SURFACE WHILE WINDS THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH...ADVECTING MOISTURE UP FROM THE
GULF. OVERALL EXPECT MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN TO INCREASE
THROUGH TONIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT
INITIALLY...THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WILL BE OVER SOUTH CAROLINA
WHERE COASTAL SHOWERS SHOULD ADVECT ON SHORE. ALSO SEEMS TO BE
WHERE BEST WIND SHEAR AND CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED. OTHER PLACES
WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CHC OF PCP THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS WARM FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND AND NORTH. BEST
LIFT WILL SHIFT TO NC COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF OTHERWISE.

A COUPLE OF WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL APPROACH IN SW FLOW AROUND RIDGE AND MAY ACT TO ENHANCE THE
LIFT AND PCP THROUGH THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE REMAINS ON THE
INCREASE. PCP WATER VALUES WILL REACH UP NEAR 1.75 INCHES OVER SC
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND NC THROUGH THIS EVENING. OVERALL EXPECT
BEST CHC OF PCP TO BE ALIGNED ALONG COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT AS
IT PUSHES NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST NAM ACTUALLY SHOWS SOME
SUBSIDENCE AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER MUCH OF AREA AND HRRR SHOWS
LIMITED...IF ANY...PCP AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT ALSO SHOWS THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE RIDING OVER THE FORECAST OFFICE NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK WITH VORT MAX JUST OFF THE COAST. THEREFORE SHOULD MOST
PCP TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AND GREATER CHC OF SHWRS ALONG AND
OFF THE COAST TOWARD MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE MILD SIDE. CLOUD COVER HAS
WORKED TO OFFSET SOME OF THE WAA THIS AFTN. MOISTURE RETURN WILL
BRING DEWPOINT TEMPS UP INTO THE 60S. THE CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE
RICH AIR WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT FROM DROPPING BELOW THE MID 60S MOST
PLACES.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 3 PM MONDAY... FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP LAYER OF
SATURATION FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY. AND WHILE THE ENTIRE DAY WILL NOT BE
A WASHOUT IT IS QUITE DIFFICULT TO HAVE ANY GIVEN HOUR WITH LOW POPS
DUE TO SEVERAL SMALL SCALE PERTURBATIONS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW.
GIVEN WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY DISCERNING HOW
MUCH INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. REGARDLESS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED THUNDER BUT BREAKS OR SUFFICIENT THINNING IN CLOUDS COULD
LEAD TO ENOUGH INSTABILITY SUCH THAT SPC HAS REFERENCED NC IN THW
SWODY2. CHANCE FOR ACTUAL SEVERE WEATHER TOO LOW FOR EVEN A
`MARGINAL` ISOPLETH IN THE OUTLOOK. GIVEN RELATIVELY LOW LCLS/MEAGER
LAPSE RATES FAVORING FAIRLY THIN BUT TALL CAPE AND THE LACK OF ANY
DRY AIR THE MAIN `THREAT` WILL BE NON-SEVERE (20-40MPH) WET
DOWNBURSTS. THE GFS DOES SHOW SOME DRYING AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DCAPE BY 00Z DUE TO THE EXIT OF DAY`S STRONGEST SHORTWAVE BUT MUCH
PAST PEAK HEATING THERE MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT LIFT REMAINING FOR
DEEP CONVECTION. COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
TUESDAY NIGHT ENDING MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE LIGHTNING AS LOW LEVELS
STRONGLY STABILIZE UNDERNEATH INVERSION AND LIFT REMAINS TOO WEAK
TO TAP ELEVATED INSTABILITY, IF ANY. LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN THEN
STAYS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE WEDGE
CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE WEAK OVERRUNNING. HIGH TEMPS FROM TUESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY WILL GO FROM ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO TO ROUGHLY 5
DEGREES BELOW. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WEDGE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF WEDNESDAY HIGHS NEED TO BE LOWERED A FEW DEGREES.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
GULF OF MEXICO ALONG WITH 5H TROUGHING/CUTOFF OVER THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS WILL SPREAD DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE START OF
NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION TO THE DEEP MOISTURE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL ENSURE A STEADY SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EJECTING FROM THE 5H
CUTOFF PASS OVER THE REGION. THESE WAVES MAY WORK TO ENHANCE DIURNAL
CONVECTION...DEPENDING ON THEIR TIMING. TIMING THESE FEATURES IN THE
EXTENDED IS DIFFICULT AT BEST AND GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT
TO AVAILABLE DIURNAL INSTABILITY AS WELL AS THE LOCATION OF ANY
LINGERING CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES DO NOT PLAN ON ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO
POP FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES THU WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW CLIMO WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING DOWN THE COAST FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE PARENT HIGH MOVES OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRI...BREAKING THE RIDGE AND ALLOWING
PASSAGE OF WEAK WARM FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH. THIS WILL USHER IN A
PERIOD OF HIGHS AND LOWS ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO BUT IS ALSO
LIKELY TO KEEP PRECIP CHANCES ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CUTOFF
EMERGING FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND WILL HELP DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING BUT GFS IS A BIT FASTER...SUN NIGHT...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER...LATER MON.

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOW VFR CIGS ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING WITH TEMPO MVFR
CIGS KMYR/KCRE/KFLO. SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF KMYR ARE
MOVING ONSHORE AND DEVELOPING TOWARDS KFLO. THE AREAS OF SHOWERS ARE
LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH. THERE MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE MVFR/SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE KFLO/KMYR/KCRE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR TEMPO MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND IFR WILL BE
AT KCRE/KMYR AS SEA FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPS AS THE MARINE LAYER BECOMES
SATURATED.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GFS TIME HEIGHTS/MOS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS/POSSIBLY MVFR...BUT THE NAM MODEL SUGGESTS LIFR/IFR. A
WARM FRONT APPROACHING AND A LOWERING FRONTAL INVERSION SUGGESTS IFR/LIFR.
WILL KEEP TAFS AS THEY ARE AND RE-EVALUATE ON NEXT TAF PACKAGE. THE WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE S-N SHIFTING WINDS TO LIGHT SW BY MORNING. CIGS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER SUNRISE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TUES AND WED...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/IFR EARLY WITH CIGS
BECOMING MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. MVFR/SHOWERS THURS
THROUGH FRI. VFR SAT.

.MARINE...

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...ON SHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST ALLOWING COASTAL TROUGH TO PUSH INLAND AND NORTH. LIGHT
E-NE FLOW THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE E-SE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND SE-S BY MORNING. THE ONSHORE PUSH OF WINDS WILL CAUSE
A RISE IN SEAS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MOST WATERS REMAINING
BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FT BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME NEAR 6 FT IN OUTER
WATERS. WILL HOLD OFF WITH ANY SCA AS IT WOULD BE VERY BORDERLINE.
THE LONGER PERIOD SWELLS WILL TRANSLATE OVER TO SHORTER PERIOD
WIND WAVE INFLUENCE AS WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

ONCE COASTAL TROUGH MOVES FARTHER INLAND AND WINDS SHIFT TO MORE
SOUTHERLY BY MORNING...THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY ALLOWING
LONGER PERIOD SWELLS TO DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN. THIS WILL HELP TO
BRING OVERALL SEAS DOWN SLIGHTLY BY MORNING.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 3 PM MONDAY... SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY IN A
PREFRONTAL FLOW REGIME AS BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
NEITHER WINDS NOR SEAS WILL BE PARTICULARLY STIRRED UP SO THE MAIN
THREAT TO MARINERS WILL BE THE FACT THAT SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
COULD PRODUCE HEAVY ENOUGH RAINFALL FOR SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
IN ADDITION TO SOME FAIRLY GUSTY (30-40KT) WINDS. LATE NIGHT FROPA
MAY CHANGE THAT HOWEVER AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STARTS GETTING
ESTABLISHED OVER LAND. AS THIS FEATURE STRENGTHENS IN PART DUE TO
RAIN FALLING INTO IT THE GRADIENT AND RESULTING WIND/SEAS WILL RISE.
AN ADVISORY WILL BE HOISTED AT SOME POINT THOUGH ACTUAL ADVISORY
CONDITIONS/6FT SEAS LIKELY NOT MATERIALIZING TIL NIGHTTIME.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...PINCHED GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH RIDGING IN FROM
THE NORTH AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE 20
TO 25 KT RANGE THU AND THU NIGHT. EXTENDED PERIOD OF INCREASED
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS OVER 6 FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS
AND HEADLINES ARE LIKELY TO BE CARRIED OVER FROM THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. GRADIENT WEAKENS FRI AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AS TROUGH MOVES
ONSHORE/LIFTS NORTH. AS THIS OCCURS WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST
THU NIGHT TO EAST LATER FRI WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING LAT FRI
NIGHT AND CONTINUING ON SAT. WEAKER GRADIENT FRI AND SAT WILL KEEP
SPEEDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS DECREASING FROM 3 TO 5 FT
FRI MORNING TO 2 TO 3 FT SAT AFTERNOON.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

300 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH ON TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1040 AM MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY AND A WARM FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WITH IT A LARGE AMOUNT OF GULF
MOISTURE. IT HAS ALREADY STARTED TO SHOW UP IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PART
OF THE CWA AS LOW CLOUDS AND VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS THICKENING CLOUD COVER
WILL MOST LIKELY KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT IN THE SOUTHWEST
AND THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED ACCORDINGLY. LATEST HRRR SURFACE
DEWPOINTS SHOW A SWATH OF MOISTURE JUST WEST OF THE TRIAD AND CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT HAS FOLLOWED THAT PATTERN. THEREFORE EXPECT WARMEST
TEMPS IN THE EAST/NORTHEAST TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 DEGREES.

PRECIPITATION WILL REMAINED CONFINED TO THE WEST AND THE SOUTHWEST
WITH HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DEPICTING LIGHT RAIN MOVING IN THIS
AFTERNOON BUT THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION REALLY HOLDING OFF IN MUCH
OF THE CWA UNTIL TUESDAY.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 312 AM MONDAY...

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...INCREASING SLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
GULF MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL NC. MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS
IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL TRAVERSE OUR REGION. A S/W CROSSING THE
GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL DRAG A SFC COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
TOWARD CENTRAL NC. LIFT PROVIDED BY THE PERTURBATIONS ALOFT AS WELL
AS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS TO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...MAINLY OVER THE
NW THIRD OF THE CWA...WITH SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EXPECTED
EVERYWHERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FAIRLY DEEP SWLY FLOW IN THE MID-
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MAY CAUSE SHOWERS TO MOVE REPEATEDLY
OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS...LEADING TO LOCALLY HEAVY/EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THIS OCCURRENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY TUESDAY RATHER
THAN TONIGHT....AND MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT INTO THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. ALSO ATMOSPHERE PROJECTED TO BE
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE 200 J/KG OR LESS WHILE
BULK SHEAR NOT MUCH HIGHER THAN 20-25KTS. THOUGH CANNOT ENTIRELY
RULE OUT A FEW STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...STORM THREAT APPEARS
FAIRLY LIMITED.

THE NUMEROUS-WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND OVERCAST SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WHICH VARY FROM NEAR 70 ACROSS THE FAR NORTH-NW
TO THE MID 70S FAR SOUTH. IF SHOWER COVERAGE LESS THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...HIGH TEMPS MAY END UP BEING 3-4 DEGREES WARMER.
ANOTHER CAVEAT...IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THE GULF COAST LATER
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THIS MAY INTERRUPT THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE CAROLINAS. THIS WOULD LEAD TO FEWER SHOWERS AND LOWER PRECIP
AMOUNTS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING ON THE HEELS OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM S/W WILL PUSH THE SFC COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL NC. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DECREASING SHOWER THREAT NORTH-TO-
SOUTH. MIN TEMPS LOW-MID 50S NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S-NEAR 60 SOUTH.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM MONDAY...

WED/WED NIGHT: THE DISPARITY IN MODELS SOLUTIONS STARTS TO GROW
MIDWEEK. EXPECT A GOOD BIT OF CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SRN
AND WRN CWA... NEAR THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE SETTLING JUST SOUTH OF
THE STATE AND IN THE LOW LEVEL TERRAIN UPGLIDE REGION...
RESPECTIVELY. BUT PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD INITIALLY BE LIGHT...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN/NE CWA. LARGE AND COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER SE CANADA WILL NOSE SOUTHWARD INTO NC WED WITH THE
FRONT SITTING JUST TO OUR SOUTH. LOW LEVEL FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
WILL BE FROM THE NE... LIMITING MOIST UPGLIDE... ALTHOUGH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY HOLD OVER THE SRN AND SW CWA. A
SUBTLE MID LEVEL WAVE THAT APPEARS TO ORIGINATE FROM THE NWRN GULF
(POTENTIALLY AN MCV RESULTING FROM A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX) TUE MORNING
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE NE... REACHING CENTRAL NC AND ADJACENT
VA LATE WED... AND WHILE THIS SHOULD GREATLY INCREASE MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY... THE DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTENING IS IN
QUESTION WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE AND LITTLE EVIDENCE OF LOW
LEVEL MOIST UPGLIDE UNTIL AFTER SUNDOWN. EVEN AFTER THE MID LEVEL
WAVE/MCV ARRIVES LATE WED... THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER DRY OVER
THE NE HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA... ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL MOIST
UPGLIDE DOES BEGIN TO RAMP UP OVER THE SRN CWA OVERNIGHT. WE SHOULD
ALSO SEE INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT ROOTED AT A HIGH LEVEL DUE TO
A POCKET OF ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
JETLET TRACKING UP THROUGH THE MID SOUTH AND SRN APPALACHIANS. SO
THE BIG QUESTION IS: WILL THE MID/HIGH LEVEL LIFT BE SUFFICIENT TO
OVERCOME DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS? STATISTICAL GUIDANCE POPS
REMAIN QUITE HIGH... BUT THE SREF GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A DRIER SCENARIO
WITH LOW PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE PRECIP DURING THE DAY... NOT
INCREASING UNTIL WED NIGHT AND EVEN THEN MAINLY IN THE SW CWA. WILL
STAY BELOW STATISTICAL GUIDANCE POPS... ESPECIALLY WED... PEAKING IN
THE 20-25% RANGE IN THE NORTHEAST AND 30-50% IN THE SOUTH WED NIGHT.
EXPECT COOL TEMPS... WITH HIGHS WED IN THE LOW-MID 60S AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50.

THU/THU NIGHT: RAIN CHANCES APPEAR GREATEST ON THU... AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND TRACK
SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER ERN SC AND SE NC... WHILE ALOFT... WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING IS PROJECTED TO AMPLIFY AS IT TRACKS OVERHEAD...
MOVING TOWARD THE NE. THE NAM LOOKS TOO EMPHATIC WITH ITS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AS IT IS QUITE ROBUST WITH ITS HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE MID
LEVELS ON DOWN TO THE SURFACE. BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN IS REASONABLE
WITH ALONG-FRONT LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SERVING TO
BOLSTER ATLANTIC-SOURCE INFLOW INTO CENTRAL NC. WILL GO WITH 45-60%
POPS... HIGHEST IN THE WEST AND SOUTH WHERE THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WILL BE GREATEST ON TOP OF TERRAIN-FORCED ASCENT. EXPECT RAIN
CHANCES TO DROP BACK TO LOWER CHANCES THU NIGHT AS THE 00Z ECMWF
SUGGESTS... BUT GIVEN THE VAST DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
WITH GROWTH OF THESE DIFFERENCES AS WE GO OUT IN TIME... CONFIDENCE
IS LESS THAN USUAL FOR A DAY-3 FORECAST. THE CENTER OF THE PARENT
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE SHIFTING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST WHILE
CONTINUING TO WEDGE DOWN THROUGH NC... AND WITH FORCED UPGLIDE OVER
THE COLD DOME... WE`RE LIKELY TO BE QUITE COOL... AND WILL HAVE
HIGHS THU WELL BELOW NORMAL... FROM THE UPPER 50S NW TO MID 60S SE.
LOWS 52-59.

FRI-MON: FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOWER THAN USUAL... ALTHOUGH
THIS DOES LOOK TO BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD AS WE REMAIN LARGELY UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF MINOR PERTURBATIONS EMANATING FROM A DEEP LOW OVER
THE SOUTHWEST STATES... ACTING ON AN ATYPICALLY MOIST AIR MASS IN
PLACE OVER CENTRAL NC... FOR FRI INTO SAT. A RESIDUAL COOL POOL
SHOULD HOLD OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO MUCH OF FRI... RENDERING IT
ANOTHER BELOW-NORMAL DAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS... BUT THE ABSENCE OF
STRONG FORCING FEATURES TO PROMPT PRECIP DEVELOPMENT MAY ALLOW THIS
STABLE AIR MASS TO PARTIALLY MIX OUT WITH HEATING. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SLOWLY FILL THE SOUTHWEST LOW AND TRACK IT TOWARD THE EAST-
NORTHEAST SUN/MON... BUT AT VASTLY DIFFERING DEGREES AND SPEEDS... A
RESULT OF BIG DIFFERENCES IN THEIR NORTHERN STREAMS... WHICH ARE
CLOSE TO 180 DEGREES OUT OF PHASE WITH EACH OTHER AS EARLY AS FRI.
THE 12Z/13 ECMWF IS INITIALLY STRONGER THAN THE GFS WITH ITS SW LOW
OVER NM/WRN TX FRI NIGHT... HOWEVER BY SAT NIGHT/SUN THE ECMWF
STRENGTHENS A NORTHERN STREAM LOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
CANADIAN MARITIMES... MUCH MORESO THAN THE GFS... AND AS A RESULT
THE ECMWF HOLDS A STRONGER/SLOWER RIDGE JUST UPSTREAM OVER NC AND
GREATLY WEAKENS AND SLOWS THE FORMER NM/TX LOW. SO AFTER A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FRI/SAT... WE MAY SEE EITHER DRIER/COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT SETTLING TO OUR SOUTH AS THE ECMWF INDICATES...
OR MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS THE GFS SUGGESTS... OR
SOMETHING IN BETWEEN. WILL RETAIN DAILY CHANCE POPS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD... SLIGHTLY HIGHER FRI INTO SAT THEN AGAIN ON MON... WITH THE
GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT BY THAT TIME WE`LL HAVE IMPROVING RAIN CHANCES
AS THE LOW-TURNED-SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TEMPS
NEAR TO JUST UNDER SEASONAL VALUES. -GIH

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM MONDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: INCREASING CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE RISE AND THIS
IS DEPICTED WELL ON VISIBLE SATELLITE AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD
THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. AS MOISTURE ADVECTS IN OFF THE
COAST FROM THE SOUTH...SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY AT KFAY. OTHER THAN SPOTTY SHOWERS IN
THE WEST AND THE SOUTH...CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY VFR FOR QUITE SOME
TIME. WITH MOISTURE AND CEILINGS GENERALLY COMING IN FROM WEST TO
EAST...EXPECT KINT AND KGSO TO HAVE SUB-VFR CEILINGS FIRST WITH
BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY KRDU AND KFAY AND
THEN FINALLY KRWI GOING DOWN BELOW VFR LAST. CEILINGS WILL BE THE
MAIN PROBLEM OVERNIGHT WITH VISIBILITIES POSSIBLY GOING DOWN AS WELL
BUT THAT WONT MATTER BECAUSE THE CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO
IFR LEVELS EVERYWHERE AND POSSIBLY LIFR BETWEEN 6-12Z TUESDAY. LATE
IN THE TAF PERIOD...MOST OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL SHOULD BE CONFINED
NORTH OF THE AREA AND THERE COULD BE A LULL IN RAIN OVER THE CWA
WITH AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CEILINGS AFTER DAYBREAK AND POSSIBLY
EVEN BACK TO VFR AT KFAY NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY VEER FROM A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION TO A MORE
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS OF 5-10 KTS WILL PREVAIL.

LONG TERM: AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SUB VFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IN EXACTLY WHEN...WHERE...OR HOW
PROLONGED THESE PERIODS OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE. IN GENERAL
THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE FOR ADVERSE CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY UNDER A COLD AIR DAMMING PATTERN WITH MORE BREAKS TO VFR
LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE CAD MOVES OUT AND MORE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
TAKE OVER.

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...ELLIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

246 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST WILL MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE
THROUGH TONIGHT AS COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT PUSHES INLAND AND
NORTH. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...STALLING TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THIS FRONT FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING OVERHEAD
MAY PROLONG THE UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...SUFFICE TO SAY ITS GOING TO RAIN DURING THE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME BUT WHEN AND JUST HOW MUCH
REMAINS TO BE SEE. A BROAD AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
WORK WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTH.
TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR DECENT RAINFALL AS A COUPLE
OF SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS. WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING MORE LIKE A
DRIZZLY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN EVENT AS WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE
THE PRIMARY CATALYST. WE ARE CARRYING LIKELY POPS MOST OF TUESDAY
TRENDING DOWN WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S TUESDAY AND DROP
OFF A BIT WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MODERATED BY THE MOISTURE FALLING INTO THE
MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AS A BROAD
SOUTHWEST ALOFT CONTINUES WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE. THE MAIN
SURFACE FEATURE WILL BE HIGH PRESSURE CONFIGURED IN A WEDGE
PATTERN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MOISTURE RIDING OVER THE COOLER
AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM. HOWEVER
THE GFS SHOWS A MORE DECENT SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THURSDAY TO
ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY. IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW ON JUST WHEN THE BEST FORCING OCCURS AS THERE WILL BE SEVERAL
WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. POPS TREND DOWN FOR THE WEEKEND BUT
CANNOT BE REMOVED AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURE FORECAST SHOWS HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TUES AND WED...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/IFR EARLY WITH CIGS
BECOMING MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. MVFR/SHOWERS THURS
THROUGH FRI. VFR SAT.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...ON SHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST ALLOWING COASTAL TROUGH TO PUSH INLAND AND NORTH. LIGHT
E-NE FLOW THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE E-SE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND SE-S BY MORNING. THE ONSHORE PUSH OF WINDS WILL CAUSE
A RISE IN SEAS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MOST WATERS REMAINING
BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FT BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME NEAR 6 FT IN OUTER
WATERS. WILL HOLD OFF WITH ANY SCA AS IT WOULD BE VERY BORDERLINE.
THE LONGER PERIOD SWELLS WILL TRANSLATE OVER TO SHORTER PERIOD
WIND WAVE INFLUENCE AS WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...THE MAIN STORY FOR THE SHORT TERM MARINE
FORECAST WILL BE THE WIND SHIFT THAT OCCURS EARLY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. PRIOR TO THIS...WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 10-15 KNOTS. THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
BUILD THROUGH THE DAY TO AN EVENTUAL 20-25 KNOTS AND PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL INCREASE IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE INCREASE
IN WINDS. EXPECT AROUND TWO FEET TUESDAY JUMPING UP TO SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA LATER WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS INITIALLY AND FAIRLY STRONG WITH
A RANGE OF 15-20 KNOTS. IF THE LATEST OPERATIONAL GFS WERE TO VERIFY
WINDS MAY TURN OUT TO BE MUCH HIGHER AS THE GRADIENT IN THIS MODEL
IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE. FOR NOW WILL TAKE THE MORE CONSERVATIVE
APPROACH. WINDS DIMINISH FRIDAY AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO ACQUIRE AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT. SEAS WILL BE WORKED UP THURSDAY ECLIPSING SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA THEN SEE A DECREASE FRIDAY.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

143 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH ON TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1040 AM MONDAY...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 312 AM MONDAY...

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM MONDAY...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
MID TO LATE WEEK ACROSS THE REGION... WITH A GENERAL COOL MOIST
SURFACE AIRMASS IN PLACE THANKS TO A RATHER LENGTHY PERIOD OF COLD
AIR DAMMING EXPECTED. DETAILS CONTINUE TO REMAIN A BIT MURKY FOR
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER... THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP
LOOKS TO BE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... AS BRIEF MID
LEVEL S/W RIDGING PUSHES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THUS... PLAN TO RAISE POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND LOWER HIGH
TEMPS... WITH AN EXPECTED LOW DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT IN THE HEART OF THE DAMMING AIRMASS AT THIS TIME. HIGH
TEMPS MAY RECOVER SOME ON FRIDAY AS WE MAY SEE SOME DRYING WORK INTO
THE AREA FROM THE TOP DOWN AS A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE COAST BEGINS TO
SHIFT EASTWARD. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW DURING THIS
TIME AS SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS HIGHER
CHANCES FOR PRECIP OVER THE AREA.

WRT TO TEMPS... EXPECT HIGH TEMPS FOR THIS PERIOD TO GENERALLY RANGE
FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY. FOR
THURSDAY... WE MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT EVEN... AND THIS MAY NOT EVEN BE COOL ENOUGH. LOW
TEMPS SHOULD BE THE COOLEST ON THURSDAY MORNING (UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S)... WITH LOW TEMPS ON FRIDAY MORNING WARMER AS THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIP BEGIN TO DECREASE ALONG WITH THE MAIN SURFACE HIGH TO THE
NORTH MOVING WELL OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST BY THIS TIME.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT... WITH HIGH TEMPS RECOVERING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
FOR SATURDAY. WE MAY SEE A FEW/SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW
STORMS ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE IN THE FINER
DETAILS REMAINS QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER... MORE
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST ON SUNDAY WRT ANOTHER POTENTIAL DAMMING
EVENT. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SPREAD MOISTURE AND ENERGY BACK ACROSS
CENTRAL NC SUNDAY MORNING... WHILE THE LATEST ECMWF HOLD OFF ANY
PRECIP UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A
SILENT SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY.

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM MONDAY...

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...ELLIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

1041 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS
MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING ON
WEDNESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1040 AM MONDAY...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 312 AM MONDAY...

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM MONDAY...

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 727 AM MONDAY...

A RELATIVELY STABLE AND DRY AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NC EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS LATER TODAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUD COVER AND A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TRIAD TERMINALS
AND POSSIBLY KFAY PRIOR TO SUNSET...ALONG WITH SPOTS OF PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN.

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEMS ALOFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF IFR/LOW END MVFR CEILINGS.

SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. THIS SUGGEST A HIGH PROBABILITY OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

THE COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO EXTEND SOUTH
INTO THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY. WHILE THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A
TEMPORARY END TO THE SHOWERS...RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE LOWER HALF
OF THE ATMOSPHERE MAY CAUSE A LAYER OF MVFR STRATUS TO OCCUR FOR
MOST OF WEDNESDAY.

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...POSSIBLY LEADING TO MORE PERIODS OF SUB VFR CEILINGS AND
PRECIP.

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

727 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 312 AM MONDAY...

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD TODAY. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
RETREATING HIGH WILL ADVECT A MOIST AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL NC.
SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIP WATER PRODUCT SUGGEST PW VALUES JUST OVER
AN INCH IMMEDIATELY TO OUR SW WITH POTENTIAL FOR US TO TAP INTO
PRECIP WATER VALUES NEAR 1.6 INCHES BY TONIGHT/TUESDAY.

THUS...EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUD COVER ADVANCE NEWD
DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. WHILE WESTERN AREAS WILL PROBABLY SEE
MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN...LOCATIONS FROM RDU EAST MAY SEE A DECENT
DISPLAY OF SUN UNTIL EARLY-MID AFTERNOON AT WHICH TIME CLOUDS SHOULD
BE THICKENING.

WRF MODELS AS WELL AS THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST POTENTIAL
FOR PATCHY LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP ALONG OUR WESTERN PERIPHERY BY MID-
LATE MORNING. WHILE NEAR TERM MODELS CURRENTLY VERIFYING WELL WITH
THE RAIN COVERAGE OVER SC...FEEL THAT THE PROJECTION OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DEVELOPING BEFORE NOON IN THE WEST A BIT PRE MATURE AS
MECHANISM TO GENERATE LIFT LACKING. IF SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN WERE TO
DEVELOP...MAX TEMPS OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES MAY REMAIN IN THE
60S.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 312 AM MONDAY...

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM MONDAY...

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 727 AM MONDAY...

SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. THIS SUGGEST A HIGH PROBABILITY OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...POSSIBLY LEADING TO MORE PERIODS OF SUB VFR CEILINGS AND
PRECIP.

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

312 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 312 AM MONDAY...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 312 AM MONDAY...

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM MONDAY...

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...

A RELATIVELY STABLE AND DRY AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NC EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUD COVER AND A HIGH PROBABILITY OF MVFR
CEILINGS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TRIAD TERMINALS AND POSSIBLY KFAY
PRIOR TO SUNSET...ALONG WITH SPOTS OF PATCHY LIGHT RAIN.

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEMS ALOFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF IFR/LOW END MVFR CEILINGS.

SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. THIS SUGGEST A HIGH PROBABILITY OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...POSSIBLY LEADING TO MORE PERIODS OF SUB VFR CEILINGS AND
PRECIP.

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

1019 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE THE RED FLAG WARNING ON TIME AT 03 UTC. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS ON TRACK AND
BLENDED TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 03 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 804 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. THE MAIN CONCERN
IS THE INCREASING WIND FIELD IN THE 900-800 MB POST 03 UTC. THE
20-23 UTC ITERATIONS OF RAP SOUNDINGS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN
50-60KTS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED LAYER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WITH ONLY A VERY SHALLOW DECOUPLED LAYER AT THE SURFACE.
SHOULD THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAIN MIXED TO ALLOW THE TRANSFER OF
THIS HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR TO THE SURFACE...AN EXTENSION OF THE RED
FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED WITH POSSIBLE WIND HEADLINES.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FIRE WEATHER (SEE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW) AND WINDS. GOOD MIXING TODAY HAS HELPED
BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN GUSTY WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING
ADVISORY LEVELS OF 45 MPH IN SOME LOCATIONS. BUFR SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO SOME EXTENT. CONSIDERED ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DECIDED AGAINST IT FOR NOW SINCE WE
HAVE BEEN ON THE LOWER END OF CRITERIA AND ONLY AT A LIMITED
NUMBER OF REPORTING LOCATIONS.

A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT IS SLOW TO PROGRESS EAST...AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO AGAIN INCREASE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. WINDS COULD
APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT AFTER COLLABORATION WITH WFO FGF...HAVE OPTED TO
HOLD OFF ON ANY WIND HEADLINES FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
COOLER ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S WEST...AND NEAR 70 EAST. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE STATE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

OVERALL PATTERN IS POINTING TOWARD A GRADUAL COOLING TREND AS WE
MIGRATE DEEPER INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SOME PROSPECTS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A MORE PRONOUNCED
AREA COMING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. USED A BLEND OF
THE NAM/SREF/ECMWF. THE GFS WAS OUSTED AS AN OUTLIER EARLY IN THE
EXTENDED AS IT TRIED TO DEVELOP A CLOSED 700MB-500MB CLOSED LOW OVER
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD
BE ON THE DECREASE AFTER SATURDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM EASES INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z THURSDAY. HAVE A CHC
OF SHOWERS SLIDING ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXTENDING THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. THEREAFTER...NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL
GIVE WAY TO BROAD RIDGING FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT
WINDS THURSDAY WITH NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES EXPECTED. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
SLATED FOR FRIDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN 20 AND 35 MPH...ALONG WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AROUND 25 PERCENT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AREA CLOSELY
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. FOR SATURDAY...
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES OF 25 TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA. A MARGINAL CASE FOR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING WEST MOVING INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE ECMWF DOES SHOW SOME BRIEF LINKAGE OF
SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT BEING
SCOOPED UP INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE.
OTHERWISE EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1015 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE 00Z PERIOD WILL BE GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GUSTS WILL
RANGE FROM 25-35 KNOTS AT ALL SITES THIS EVENING...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS LOCATED IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OVERNIGHT...AND WINDS WILL SHIFT
FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH SOME MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS ENCROACHING FROM MONTANA.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1018 P CDT TUE APR 14 2015

ANOTHER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
SHOULD NOT BE AS LOW AS TODAY (TUESDAY)...BUT STRONG SOUTH WINDS
WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN. WILL MAINTAIN THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM
BOTTINEAU COUNTY...SOUTH THROUGH EMMONS COUNTY...AND EAST TO OUR
BORDER WITH WFO FGF FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NDZ004-005-012-013-022-023-025-035>037-046>048-050-
051.

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...CK
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...AYD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

805 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 804 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 805 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
HAVE PUSHED MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO RED FLAG
WARNING CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE RED FLAG
WARNING INTO THIS EVENING...BUT DID NOT EXTEND IT SINCE CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE AS TEMPERATURES AND WINDS DECREASE...AND HUMIDITY
LEVELS RISE THIS EVENING.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NDZ004-005-012-013-022-023-025-035>037-046>048-050-
051.

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...CK
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...CK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

1137 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

WIND HAS DECOUPLED IN SPOTS AND ALMOST CALM...CAUSING TEMPS TO DIP
QUICKER THAN EXPECTED. LOWERED MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS SCENARIO...OTHERWISE FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

COLD FRONT ENTERING ERN FCST AREA ATTM NR A
WARROAD...BAGLEY...TO ELBOW LAKE LINE. SATELLITE SHOWS SOME BEST
CU DEVELOPMENT JUST EAST OF FCST AREA FROM NORTH OF AITKIN MN
THROUGH BRAINERD TO BENSON MN THEN INTO WATERTOWN AREA OF SD. THUS
ANY CONVECTION MAY INDEED FIRE EAST OF THE FCST AREA. WILL WAIT
AND SEE IF WORTH PULLING POPS IN FAR EASTERN FCST AREA FOR NEXT
FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER SASKATCHEWAN WITH VORT MAX OVER
NW/NCNTRL ND. LEADING EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM PRODUCING A NARROW BAND
OF SHOWERS. 0.02 OCCURRED IN DEVILS LAKE. HRRR CONTINUES TO HAVE A
FEW SHOWERS MOVING EAST- NORTHEAST BUT WEAKENING A BIT. WILL
MAINTAIN ISOLD -SHRA WORDING THRU 00Z- 01Z IN NRN VALLEY.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THE COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOC WITH
500 MB TROUGH DEVELOPING A FEW SHOWERS IN WRN ND INTO SRN SASK/NE
MONTANA. FEEL THESE ARE HEAT DRIVEN AND WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVE.
THUS FOR THE TIME BEING KEPT POPS OUT OF DVL BASIN THOUGH NAM DOES
HAVE A FEW SHOWERS PSBL INTO NE ND THIS EVE WITH THE COLD POOL
ALOFT.

COLD POOL ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO NW MN MONDAY MORNING AND OVER NORTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND LAKE OF THE WOODS ONTARIO REGION MIDDAY-EARL
AFTN MONDAY. VIA DLH CHAT...WILL INCLUDE A LOW POP FOR SUN DRIVEN
SHOWERS IN LAKE OF THE WOODS-RED LAKE REGION IN THE 17Z-22Z
PERIOD. OTHERWISE SOME CUMULUS LIKELY BUT A GOOD DEAL OF SUN TOO.
QUITE WINDY ON MONDAY WITH WEST WINDS AND VERY DRY AIRMASS MOVING.
THIS CAUSES FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WHICH ARE ADDRESSED IN FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION SECTION. WINDS MAY WELL BE IN ADVISORY CRITERIA
FOR A TIME ESP DVL BASIN. WILL ALLOW MID SHIFT TO SORT OUT ANY
FIRE/WIND HEADLINES. FOR THE AFTN WINDS IN THE GRIDS DID GO WITH
HIGHER MAV MOS WINDS VS MODEL SUPERBLEND.

WINDS DIMINISH QUICKLY MON EVE AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STARTS TO
MOVE IN. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ON TUESDAY WITH RETURN SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW SETTING UP OVER ERN ND. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE RRV/ERN ND AS WARMING OCCURS IN THE
SFC-850 MB LEVEL OUT AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM ENTERING THE HIGH
PLAINS. DEW PTS MAY BE HIGHER BUT WITH HIGHER TEMPS EXPECT A DAY
WITH LOW RH VALUES ONCE AGAIN AND LIKELY CRITICAL FIRE WX
CONDITIONS. TUES NIGHT WILL SEE LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA AND A
MILD NIGHT. WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY. MODELS HAVE SLOWED SYSTEM DOWN
AND CONTINUED WITH IDEA OF A PRETTY MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM. ANY
PRECIP CONFINED TO JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WILL BE MORE WED NIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...ZONAL UPPER FLOW PATTERN
OVER SRN CANADA WILL BRING A MINOR SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC
TROUGH ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN HALF OF CWA AND SRN MB EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SCT SHRA WED NIGHT. MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE ALTHOUGH GFS A TAD FURTHER
NORTH. NEXT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN CANADA ON FRIDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE FOR MORE LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG INTL BORDER...HOWEVER NOT MUCH
MOISTURE AS FLUX OF PACIFIC MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH AND CONVECTION
OVER SRN US CUTS OFF ANY GULF MOISTURE. SW RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER
SASK/MB WILL AND SFC HIGH OVER NORTHERN TIER WILL KEEP FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT DRY. CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCE ON LATITUDE OF NEXT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA...WITH GFS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MB AND
KEEPING CWA DRY WHEREAS ECMWF BRINGS SFC LOW ALONG INTL BORDER.
ALL BLEND REPRESENTING ECMWF POSSIBILITY AND YIELDING CHANCE POPS
FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL AGAIN BECOME BREEZY/GUSTY AFTER SUNRISE.
THERE MAY BE SOME VFR CIGS THOUGH THE PERIOD.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF MAINLY SE ND/S RRV AS WEST OR NORTHWEST WINDS
GUST AT TIMES UP TO 30 MPH AMIDST DRY SURFACE AIR BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE START OF
THE WEEK. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. A DEEPENING MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER UP TO NEAR
700 MB WILL HELP TRANSFER HIGHER WIND GUSTS (UP TO 40 MPH) DOWN TO
THE SURFACE...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH. WITH THE AID OF THE
DEEP VERTICAL MIXING AND AN ALREADY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...RH
SHOULD FALL TO 20 PERCENT OR LOWER IN MANY AREAS. GIVEN THAT FUELS
REMAIN VERY DRY...THIS COMBINATION OF FACTORS MAY LEAD TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.

ANOTHER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY IS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. A SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO BREEZY/GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. WITH
WARMER TEMPS...RH MAY FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT AGAIN.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER
AVIATION...TG
FIRE WEATHER...MAKOWSKI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

729 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY...AND ANOTHER ON
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
6 PM UPDATE...REMOVED THUNDER FROM SOUTHERN ZONES. ALSO...UPDATED
THE DEW POINTS...AS MUCH DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO NORTHERN ZONES
QUICKER THAN FORECAST. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
LOOKING AT A DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW FINALLY
PASSES TO THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. AS WE DRY OUT FROM THE RAINFALL LAST NIGHT AND TODAY...WE
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO USHER IN A DRY AIRMASS FOR THE ENTIRETY OF
THE CWA...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING IN THE COAL FIELDS
AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE
NORTHERN ZONES...BUT AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL ASSIST WITH
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETENTION. WILL ALSO KEEP LOW END POPS IN
THESE AREAS AS WELL. NO THUNDER EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST.
FOLLOWED THE HRRR FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE POPS THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY. NORTHWESTERN ZONES WILL SEE SOME CLEARING TONIGHT.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...GETTING A BRIEF REPRIEVE WITH MODEST RIDGING
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF EMBEDDED VORTICITY
MAXIMA IN THE 500MB FLOW ARRIVES IN THE TUG FORK VALLEY.

NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY BE WARMER THAN THE SOUTHERN
HALF GIVEN THE CLEARER CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS HAVE A MEAN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING OVER THE WEST CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE NATION...WITH RATHER WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
EXTENDING ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THERE WILL BE WEAK
UPPER IMPULSES IN THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT IT APPEARS MOST
MODELS FOCUS ON ONE THAT COMES ACROSS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BE
THE DOMINANT FEATURE AT THE SURFACE...THIS UPPER FEATURE APPEARS TO
HAVE ENOUGH DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT A HIGH POP AND LOW
QPF FORECAST THURSDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...HAVE TO
KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT POPS IN MOST OF THE PERIOD...GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF OTHER IMPULSES ALOFT. THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY...BUT LITTLE THUNDER
WITH MARGINAL MODEL INSTABILITY AT BEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MODERATE WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID 60S UNDER CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS...AND IN THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY WITH LESS SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
SOME SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SRN STREAM DOMINATES THE CWA EARLY ON...WITH A WEAK WAVE MOVING
THROUGH LATE FRI NT INTO SAT. A NRN STREAM S/W TROUGH MAY STILL DIG
FAR ENOUGH S TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT AT LEAST INTO THE AREA LATE SAT.
THIS MAY BRING A BRIEF INTERLUDE OF DRY TO ONLY SCHC POPS AT LEAST
ACROSS THE N SAT NT INTO SUN.

SRN STREAM UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE DEEP S LATER SUN INTO MON AND
CROSSES THE CWA WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. NRN STREAM
TROUGH AMPLIFICATION OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN CONUS BEGINS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODELS ACTUALLY SHOW PHASING WITH THE SRN STREAM UPPER
LEVEL LOW ONCE THAT FEATURE IS PASSED THE AREA. THIS LEADS TO A
MILLER B TYPE SFC EVOLUTION WHICH BRINGS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FADING PRIMARY LOW THROUGH THE AREA SUN NT INTO MON. THIS
WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY DRYING DAY 7 NT.

TEMPERATURES A BIT HIGHER EARLY ON BUT OTHERWISE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
WITH NO MAJOR DEVIATIONS FROM WPC INCLUDING THE NEW DAY 7.

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WILL
CONTINUE TO LINGER...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...INCLUDING AT SITES KBKW AND KEKN.

LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DURING THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF LIFTING OF MVFR CIGS TO
VFR...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND THE SOUTH...MAY VARY
FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE WED 04/15/15
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L H M M M M M H
EKN CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AT
VARIOUS TIMES THRU THE WEEK.

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/26
NEAR TERM...SL/26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...SL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

656 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT...BRINGING A
SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO ALL OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE NORTHWEST. FAIR WEATHER WITH NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. MORE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SKIES STILL MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS EVENING AS
SHALLOW FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FRESH
SOUTHERLY BREEZES AND STRONG MIXING IN THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
ALLOWED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO SURGE INTO THE 70S THROUGHOUT
THE AREA...CLOSE TO 80 OVER PARTS OF THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
(KDUJ WAS 79F ON THE HOUR OF THEIR 4PM OB).

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE STEADILY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS EVENING. SHOWERS ARE JUST ARRIVING OVER NORTHWEST WARREN
COUNTY...THE LEADING EDGE OF WHAT WILL BE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
HAVE NULLIFIED THE CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER OVER NORTHWEST
PA...DESPITE THE IMPRESSIVE AFTERNOON HEATING. GUSTY WINDS AHEAD
AND ALONG THE LINE OF SHOWERS WILL STILL PRODUCE 25 TO 35MPH WINDS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LINE PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY MID TO LATE
EVENING.

THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH BFD BY 02Z AND UNV/IPT BY 08Z AND
LINGER A LITTLE OVER THE SE...BUT SHOULD CLEAR OUT LANCASTER CO
AROUND OR EVEN BEFORE 9 AM TUES. QPF STILL LOOKS AROUND HALF OF AN
INCH...BUT PROBABLY A LITTLE LESS IN THE CENTRAL ZONES WITH THE
FAST MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND ATTENDANT SHOWERS. LOW TEMPS EARLY
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S OVER THE NORTH...AND UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTH.

LATEST HI RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WAVE RIPPLES ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE SLOWING ITS SOUTHEASTERN PROGRESS OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS
STALLING IT OR ALLOWING BACKBUILDING FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT.
SHOULD THIS OCCUR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS COULD SEE AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF ONE HALF INCH. THE AREA NEEDS THE RAINFALL...AND ANOTHER
QUARTER INCH WOULD HARDLY BE CAUSE FOR FLOODING CONCERNS...BUT FOR
NOW WILL WATCH AS THE LINE EVOLVES AND PUSHES EAST.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ANY EARLY MORNING SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY MOVE
OUT QUICKLY...AND GOOD CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH
AND CENTRAL AREAS WILL BRING A NICE DAY FOR MOST. ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE MASON DIXON LINE...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAY LINGER
LONGER...SO AM PESSIMISTIC ONLY FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...LAURELS AND LOWER SUSQ WITH RESPECT TO
SUNSHINE...WHICH MAY KEEP TEMPS A FEW NOTCHES LOWER THAN THE REST
OF CENTRAL PA TUESDAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE THROUGH THE 60S
THROUGHOUT.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WELL DEFINED MCV TRACKING NEWD FROM LA THIS AFTERNOON IS WELL
CAPTURED BY THE MODELS AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK NEWD THROUGH THE
TN VLY TUES AND THE SRN MID ATLC STATES TUE NGT BEFORE MOVG OFF
THE VA/NC COAST BY EARLY WED. MEANWHILE SEASONABLY STG SURFACE
HIGH WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EWD FROM SERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES
OVER NEW ENGLAND WED-THU AND SLIDE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MAIN QUESTION EARLY ON IS HOW FAR PCPN
WILL TRY TO ADVANCE NWD IN ASSOC WITH THE WAVE TRACKING OFF THE
SRN MID ATLC COAST TOMORROW NGT. ENS PWATS ARE BLW NORMAL ACRS
MUCH OF PA SUGGESTING ANY LGT RAIN WOULD BE CONFINED RIGHT ALONG
OR SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. MADE A MINOR CHANGE THIS CYCLE
TO ADD MENTION OF SCHC POPS ALONG THE MD LINE IN COORDINATION
WITH LWX AND PHI TUE NGT. HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN DRY WX ACROSS
THE NRN 2/3 OF THE CWA TOMORROW NGT WITH CHILLY LOWS AROUND 32F
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS. SOME OF THE USUALLY COLDER AREAS COULD GO
EVEN LOWER GIVEN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. NLY FLOW ON THE FRONT
SIDE OF THE HP SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP MINS IN THE 40S OVER THE SCNTRL
MTNS AND MID TO LWR SUSQ VLY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WX PATTERN THROUGH MID WEEK WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS ON DAY 3/WED AND PERHAPS INTO
DAY 4/THU. THE ACTIVE SPRING SPLIT FLOW REGIME EXTENDING FROM THE
PACIFIC ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER WILL LEAD TO SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL PCPN TRENDS ARE
SOMEWHAT EVIDENT BASED ON A BROAD MULTI-MODEL/ENSEMBLE BLEND. THE
SRN STREAM CLOSED LOW EVOLVING SLOWLY EWD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS WILL BE A KEY PLAYER IN DETERMINING HOW
MUCH NRN STREAM ENERGY CAN DIG ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LKS FRI INTO
SAT. ONE OR MORE LEAD IMPULSES IN THE RETURN FLOW WILL SUPPORT A
LOW RISK FOR SHOWERS ON THURS /MAINLY OVER WRN AREAS/ WITH A
CONSENSUS POINTING TOWARD FRI-SAT AS THE "BEST CHANCE" FOR MORE
WDSPRD RAINFALL. THE GFS/EC BOTH HANDLE THE SPLIT FLOW ENERGY
EAST OF THE MS RIVER DIFFERENTLY WHICH CAUSES TIMING ISSUES FOR
POSSIBLE PCPN EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF
DRY WX ON SUNDAY SEEMS TO BE BUILDING AND MATCHES WPC DAY 3-7
PROGS SHOWING HP IN CONTROL. THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MORE ROBUST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THAT TEMPERATURES COULD
TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE MONTH AS THE WRN
NOAM RIDGE IS RE-ESTABLISHED.

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS THIS EVENING WITH ONLY HIGH-BASED CU NOTED
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SLIGHTLY LATER THIS EVENING...BUT IT WILL
REMAIN BREEZY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA FROM NW-SE OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED
BY A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND ASSOC REDUCTIONS LASTING NO MORE THAN
ARND 2 HRS IN MOST SPOTS. LATEST HRRR AND 4KM NAM SUGGEST A TSRA
IS EVEN POSSIBLE AT KBFD ARND 02Z WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT. CAN/T
RULE OUT A BRIEF DIP TO IFR IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH FROPA
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE BEST CHC OF IFR CONDS WILL BE AT KJST
BTWN 06Z-09Z....WHEN POST FRONTAL NW FLOW ASCENDS THE MTNS...POTENTIALLY
RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS.

COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF PA ON TUESDAY...SO CAN/T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT LINGERING SHRA/REDUCTIONS ACROSS THE S TIER OF
THE STATE. HOWEVER...LATEST MDL DATA INDICATES A RETURN TO
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS IS LIKELY...AS HIGH PRES RIDGE AND DRIER
NORTHERLY FLOW WORKS INTO THE STATE.

OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
THU NITE-FRI...SHRA REDUCTIONS TO MVFR LIKELY.
FRI-SAT...CHC SHRA/REDUCED VIS/CIGS POSS.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO/FITZGERALD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

556 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPS GETTING CLOSE TO 80F IN THE WRN COS YET RH/S STILL CLOSE TO
50F. THE SOUTH WINDS HAVE BROUGHT DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 40S
FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NE. DEEP MIXING HAS ALLOWED THE SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO GET GUSTY. THE COLD FRONT IS A LITTLE WEST OF FORT WAYNE
AND INDY AT 2 PM AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE STEADILY ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. SHOWERS DO LOOK LIKE THEY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
SUNSET FOR ALL BUT PERHAPS WARREN COUNTY. WEAK INSTABILITY HAS
ALLOWED A CU FIELD TO DEVELOP OVER WRN PA AND ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES...SO SOME TCU ARE POSSIBLE THERE BEFORE SUNSET - BUT
THE LIMITED MSTR SHOULD KEEP CAPE LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS OUT
UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING.

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A RATHER NARROW AXIS OF PWATS JUST OVER 1 INCH...AND ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG 850 MB WIND OF AROUND 50 KTS WILL RESULT IN A 2-4 HR PERIOD
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST WILL PROBABLY ALLOW FOR SOME THUNDER THERE...BUT LOSS OF
HEATING AND THE UNFAVORABLE/DESCENDING BRANCH OF THE 140KT JET
ACROSS THE PENINSULA OF SRN QUEBEC CANADA SHOULD QUELL THE THUNDER
BEFORE IT GETS TOO FAR INTO CENTRAL PA. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
SHOWERS WILL NEAR THE I-81 CORRIDOR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A CHC STILL EXISTS FOR A GUSTY TSRA ACROSS OUR FAR NW ZONES /WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB-SEVERE GUSTS OF UP TO 40 KTS/ BASED ON
ARRIVAL TIME IN NEAR-PEAK HEATING AND CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
SOUTHERN/TAIL END OF THE STRONGEST LLVL JET. THIS AREA HAS
REMAINED IN THE SPC MARGINAL RISK AREA WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN THE CURRENTLY WARM TEMPS AND 50+ DEWPOINTS BEING ADVECTED IN
FROM THE SW.

THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH BFD BY 02Z AND UNV/IPT BY 08Z AND
LINGER A LITTLE OVER THE SE...BUT SHOULD CLEAR OUT LANCASTER CO
AROUND OR EVEN BEFORE 9 AM TUES. QPF STILL LOOKS AROUND HALF OF AN
INCH...BUT PROBABLY A LITTLE LESS IN THE CENTRAL ZONES WITH THE
FAST MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND ATTENDANT SHOWERS. LOW TEMPS
EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S OVER THE NORTH...AND
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTH. GOOD CLEARING BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE M60S FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE
AREA ON TUES.

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS THIS EVENING WITH ONLY HIGH-BASED CU NOTED
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SLIGHTLY LATER THIS EVENING...BUT IT WILL
REMAIN BREEZY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
THU NITE-FRI...SHRA REDUCTIONS TO MVFR LIKELY.
FRI-SAT...CHC SHRA/REDUCED VIS/CIGS POSS.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO/FITZGERALD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

1216 AM CDT MON APR 13 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 855 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015/

DISCUSSION...00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WARM FRONT BISECTING
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM FORT SMITH ARKANSAS
BACK THROUGH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA.
VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS THIS EVENING INDICATE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES AS OF 8 PM CDT ARE IN THE LOWER 70S AT
MOST LOCATIONS. CHALLENGE THIS EVENING THUS FAR IS TIMING OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.

LATEST HRRR AND THE 00Z WRF STARTING TO COME IN INDICATE A
MAJORITY OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ARRIVE MAINLY
AROUND/AFTER 12Z MONDAY MORNING. BASED ON THESE TRENDS...WILL SLOW
DOWN ONSET OF RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL ALSO ADJUST ALL OTHER
ELEMENTS AS NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS.

UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

CJC

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WET...WET...WET IS HOW THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING SEVEN DAYS
LOOK ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. CURRENTLY...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY
ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...THAT WILL CHANGE BY LATER TONIGHT AS THE
CWA BECOMES SANDWICHED BETWEEN A WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND A
COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF BOTH
FRONTS THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SUNSHINE
THUS ENJOY THE LAST COUPLE OF DRY HOURS WHILE YOU CAN.

THE WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
AND IS EXPECTED TO SURGE NORTHWARD TONIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT
THE CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI AROUND 12 AM-2 AM
CDT. MEANWHILE...THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. THIS FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT TO HOLD OFF MOVING INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS TO AROUND 6 AM-8
AM CDT. THUS BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT WILL OCCUR OVER NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AS THE WARM
FRONT AND COLD FRONT COLLIDE OVER THE MIDSOUTH. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY EVENING. THEREAFTER...THE
NOW LONE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY
WITH BEST CHANCES OCCURRING ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI DUE TO BEING
IN THE VICINITY OF THE STALLED FRONT.

A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF TEXAS BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD BRINGING THE FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH
A TAD. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH AGAIN DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

THE SFC LOW WILL PUSH EAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER BY THURSDAY
NIGHT ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT DUE TO ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. SINCE THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE VICINITY OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI. SMALL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EVEN ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. THE
CHANCES WILL GO UP BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE SFC LOW
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA.

SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
SFC LOW PUSHES EAST. THE STALLED FRONT MAY PUSH A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY GIVING THE MIDSOUTH A BRIEF
BREAK IN THE CHANCES FOR RAIN. HOWEVER BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVER
THE MIDSOUTH AS ANOTHER SFC LOW TRACKS OVER THE AREA.

THE AREA MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FLOOD
WATCH BY AT LEAST THE MID TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK DEPENDING ON
HOW MUCH RAIN THE AREA RECEIVES FROM THE FIRST EVENT LATE TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. THE GROUND COULD BECOME VERY SATURATED BY MID TO LATE
WEEK WHICH COULD POSE A FLASH FLOOD RISK. IN ADDITION...SMALL
RIVERS AND CREEKS COULD BE RUNNING FULL BY THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE
RAINFALL EXPECTED THIS WEEK. STAY TUNED.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S.

KRM

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE TAFS...ONLY SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF THE
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPCOMING INCLEMENT
WEATHER. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE NEXT
6 HOURS. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AND WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
SSE AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY MONDAY
MORNING. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 8 AND 12Z WITH IFR CIGS
FOLLOWING DURING THE LATE MORNING ON MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 09Z BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON PREVAILING RAINFALL
UNTIL 11-14Z...EARLIEST AT TUP AND MEM AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH. SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDER ON STATION YET...JUST VCTS AT
ALL SITES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SSE AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH
TOMORROW...SWITCHING TO THE NORTH TOMORROW EVENING AT MKL...JBR
AND MKL AS A COLD FRONT PASSES.

TVT

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

947 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

.UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR EDITS TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE. TRENDED THE HOURLY GRIDS
TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. POPS WERE TRIMMED BACK SLIGHTLY
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE HRRR DOES STILL SHOW SOME SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT ACROSS ATASCOSA...KARNES...AND DEWITT
COUNTIES SO LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS.
MORE SIGNIFICANT EDITS WERE MADE TO THE SKY GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
IR SATELLITE IMAGES AND MODEL FORECASTS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

TREADWAY

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 76 57 82 64 80 / 20 10 20 20 60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 74 55 82 63 79 / 20 10 20 20 60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 77 57 82 64 80 / 30 10 20 20 60
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 67 54 81 63 78 / 10 10 20 20 60
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 75 57 85 65 83 / 10 10 10 30 50
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 72 53 81 63 79 / 20 10 20 20 60
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 76 56 83 65 81 / 20 10 20 20 50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 74 57 81 64 79 / 30 10 20 20 60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 72 60 81 65 80 / 50 20 30 20 60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 78 59 83 65 80 / 20 10 20 20 60
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 75 59 84 66 80 / 20 10 20 20 60

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...12
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX

822 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

.DISCUSSION...CURRENTLY QUIET ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING. WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS DRIER MID/UPPER LEVELS ACROSS S TX, WHICH IS
ALSO EVIDENT ON THE 00Z CRP SOUNDING, AND A SHORT WAVE ACROSS FAR
W TX. THE SOUNDING ALSO SHOWED A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT THAN THE
PAST FEW NIGHTS. AM NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED SVR WX TONIGHT,
HOWEVER, A WEAK BDRY IS PROGD TO MEANDER ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND
AND MOISTURE IS PROGD TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THE GFS/HRRR/RAP/
SHOW WEAK ECHOES/LIGHT PRECIP DVLPG ACROSS MAINLY THE E CWA
OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE, WILL KEEP THE 20-30 POPS IN PLACE FOR
TONIGHT. NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 00Z TAF UPDATE.

AVIATION....AVIATION...VFR CIGS ACROSS LRD/ALI/CRP...WITH HIGH
END MVFR CIGS OVER VCT. CIGS LOWER ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. PATCHY FOG IS A CONCERN AS
WELL...WITH VSBYS ANTICIPATED TO BE REDUCED TO MVFR/IFR LVLS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY AT ALI/CRP/VCT. THERE IS STILL
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT SOUTH TEXAS
TOMORROW...THOUGH COVERAGE WILL NOT BE AS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ANTICIPATE CIGS WILL RISE AND IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BECOMING VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...THEN E TO SE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...THE UPPER LOW HAS
LIFTED NEWD OVER THE SRN PLAINS (WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/STREAMLINE
DATA) LATE THIS AFTN...DECREASING SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT OVER THE
CWA/MSA. LATEST MSAS SUGGEST A WEAK BOUNDARY SW-NE ACRS THE CWA.
LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS DEPICTS MAX CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG OVER
PORTIONS OF THE ERN CWA. EARLIER RAP OUTPUT SUGGESTED MAX CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATE AT LEAST ISOLD
CONVECTION THIS EVENING/EARLY TNGT OVER THE CWA OWING TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY/SFC FORCING. SREF PROBABILITIES SUGGEST AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA DRG THE 09-14Z WEDNESDAY
PERIOD. WEDNESDAY...THE GFS PROG THE LFQ OF AN UPPER JET STREAK
ENTERING THE CWA BY THE AFTN. EARLIER NAM DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT
DEPICTED 2000-3500 J/KG CAPE VALUES OVER THE CWA FOR THE AFTN
HOURS. ANTICIPATE ISOD/SCT CONVECTION OVER THE CWA/MSA OWING TO
INSTABILITY/WEAKENING SFC BOUNDARY/UPPER FORCING (HOWEVER MSTR
MAY BECOME A LIMITING FACTOR OVR THE NERN CWA AS PWAT VALUES MAY
FALL TO NEAR NORMAL DRG THE AFTN.) SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STG DRG
THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE GFS DETERMINISTIC
MAINTAIN JET DYNAMICS OVER THE CWA WHICH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
ADDITIONAL AT LEAST ISOLD CONVECTION.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS A VERY STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET REMAINS FOCUSED
ACRS THE AREA AND MSTR/INSTABILITY RETURN. BOTH THE GFS/EURO DEPICT
50+ MID LVL SPEED MAX IMPINGING ON THE AREA THU AFTN WITH STRONG
UPPER SUPPORT IN THE FRONT LEFT QUAD OF THE UPPER JET. MSTR RETURN
LOOKS ROBUST WITH 70+ DEWPOINTS SPREADING BACK OVER THE REGION. SO
THE SVR POTNL WILL HINGE ON TOUGH TO PREDICT MESOSCALE DETAILS
CONCERNING DEGREE OF INSOLATION AND ANY LINGERING BOUNDARIES ACRS
THE RGN. AT A MINIMUM THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
POTENTIAL AND CONDITIONALLY COULD SUPPORT A HIGHER END EVENT.
ENOUGH SHEAR LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE SO THAT ALL MODES OF SVR WX ARE
PSBL HWVR DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL FROM MULTICELL CLUSTERS/BOWS LOOKS
MOST LIKELY. FRIDAY LOOKS POTENTIALLY ACTIVE AS WELL BUT AGAIN THE
EVOLUTION OF EARLIER CONVECTION WILL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON HOW
THINGS UNFOLD. AS FAR AS EXCESSIVE RAINS GO...VERY HEAVY PCPN
OVERNIGHT...4-6 INCHES IN SPOTS...HAS INCREASED OUR FLOOD THREAT
QUITE A BIT. DEEP CONVECTION COULD QUICKLY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
FLOODING THU AND ESPLY FRI WHEN PWATS APPRCH 2 INCHES ON THE LATEST
MODELS. WILL ISSUE SPS TO ADDRESS SVR/+RA THREATS DURING THE LATE
WEEK PERIOD.

WILL LEAN TWRD SLOWER FROPA DEPICTED BY THE EURO AND KEEP POPS GOING
THRU MOST OF THE WEEKEND. AGAIN SOME POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR STRONG
STORMS AND HEAVY RAINS ON SAT. DRIER AIR SHOULD WIN OUT BY SUNDAY
AS UPPER LOW FINALLY PULLS EAST. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREV TEMP
FCSTS WERE MADE - GENERALLY LEANED TWRD THE COOLER HPC NUMBERS VS
THE WARMER MEX WITH THE CLOUD/PCPN.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 67 81 70 80 71 / 30 30 20 50 40
VICTORIA 63 81 67 78 68 / 30 30 20 60 40
LAREDO 63 85 69 86 70 / 20 20 20 40 30
ALICE 65 84 68 83 70 / 30 30 20 50 40
ROCKPORT 68 78 70 76 71 / 30 30 20 60 40
COTULLA 62 84 67 82 68 / 20 20 20 40 30
KINGSVILLE 66 84 69 82 71 / 30 30 20 40 30
NAVY CORPUS 68 78 70 77 71 / 30 30 20 50 40

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

TE/81...SHORT TERM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX

725 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 00Z TAF UPDATE.

.AVIATION....AVIATION...VFR CIGS ACROSS LRD/ALI/CRP...WITH HIGH
END MVFR CIGS OVER VCT. CIGS LOWER ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. PATCHY FOG IS A CONCERN AS
WELL...WITH VSBYS ANTICIPATED TO BE REDUCED TO MVFR/IFR LVLS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY AT ALI/CRP/VCT. THERE IS STILL
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT SOUTH TEXAS
TOMORROW...THOUGH COVERAGE WILL NOT BE AS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ANTICIPATE CIGS WILL RISE AND IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BECOMING VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...THEN E TO SE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015/

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

LK/84...AVIATION

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN ANGELO TX

416 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2015

.UPDATE...
Added a flash flood watch through 1 AM CDT for portions of the Big
Country...Concho Valley and Heartland until 1 AM CDt. Slow moving
thunderstorms along and north of a cold front will produce quick
heavy rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches...and may result in flash
flooding.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

Scattered showers and thunderstorms were developing along and north
of a cold front from Mertzon to San Angelo to Brownwood at 3 PM.
SPC RUC analysis indicated SB CAPES around 1000 J/KG in this
area...which is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. The slight risk extends to the I-20 corridor.
While the severe threat is large hail and damaging winds are the
main threats, slow moving thunderstorms focused along the front will
also bring the potential for localized heavy rainfall and flash
flooding. If storm coverage becomes widespread, a flash flood watch
may be needed for Concho Valley to Brownwood and northward to the
I-20 corridor. With an upper low to the northwest in the South
Plains, there is also a low potential for a land spout or brief
tornado. The heavy rain and severe weather threat will diminish a
couple hours after sunset.

The front is indicated to move south to I-10 by midnight. Included a
slight chance of showers or thunderstorms for southern areas, but
severe weather threat is minimal as the front moves into more stable
air.

Keeping a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, along and
northwest of a Sweetwater to Junction line...but most of the
moisture and instability will be southeast of West Central Texas.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)

Dry and warmer conditions are expected Wednesday, as south winds
develop. An upper low will drop southeast into the Central Rockies.
The 12Z GFS and ECMWF differ on the track of this low, and this will
have implications on our rain chances Thursday into the weekend. The
ECMWF is slower and takes the upper low south into New Mexico Friday
and Friday night, then eventually opens the low and tracks the wave
east into Oklahoma Saturday night and Sunday. The GFS has an
elongated trough extending south from the low, and has the low
dropping southeast into the Red River Valley Friday night into
Saturday.

With enough moisture return/availability indicated, we have chance
PoPs for showers and thunderstorms beginning Wednesday night in the
west, and continuing Thursday through late Saturday. A cold frontal
passage is anticipated Thursday night into Friday, but have
uncertainty on the timing with the aforementioned model differences.
Will have to monitor the forecast setup for the potential of strong
to severe storms.

The forecast looks dry Sunday into the first part of next week with
temperatures close to normal.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 51 64 50 82 62 / 70 20 10 10 20
San Angelo 53 70 52 84 62 / 60 10 10 10 20
Junction 56 73 54 84 63 / 20 20 10 10 20

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 1 AM CDT Tuesday FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Fisher...
Irion...Jones...McCulloch...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...
Shackelford...Sterling...Taylor...Tom Green.

04/99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN ANGELO TX

353 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

Keeping a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, along and
northwest of a Sweetwater to Junction line...but most of the
moisture and instability will be southeast of West Central Texas.

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)

The forecast looks dry Sunday into the first part of next week with
temperatures close to normal.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 51 64 50 82 62 / 70 20 10 10 20
San Angelo 53 70 52 84 62 / 60 10 10 10 20
Junction 56 73 54 84 63 / 20 20 10 10 20

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

04/19

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM

321 AM MDT MON APR 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE BORDERLAND. UPPER LOW
NOW JUST SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS CONTINUING TO
PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. OVER THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 8000 FEET THE RAIN WILL BE MIXED WITH
SNOW TODAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND ALLOW THE SHOWERS TO BECOME ISOLATED AND LIGHT.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. ANOTHER UPPER LOW DROPS DOWN TO CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO THURSDAY AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES AGAIN. CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALL AREAS ON THURSDAY WITH THE
CHANCE CONTINUING OVER THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.DISCUSSION...
QUITE A MIXTURE OF FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM TO TALK ABOUT AS
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
UPPER LOW NOW JUST SOUTH OF TIMBERON AND IS FAIRLY WELL STACKED
VERTICALLY (MAKING CELL MOVEMENT LESS CONFUSING FOR TODAY). NICE
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE CWA. BLENDED TPW
PRODUCT SHOWS PWS OF .6 - .7 INCHES EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...THOUGH MODELS STILL SHOWING SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES. EXPECT
DECENT RAINFALL TO CONTINUE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH MOST OF
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS HAVE FALLEN
TO AROUND 8000 FT IN THE SACS. WEB CAMS IN THAT AREA HAVE SHOWN SOME
MIXED RAIN AND SNOW AS TEMPS ARE AT FREEZING OR JUST ABOVE. WITH
PRECIP POTENTIAL CONTINUING...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED SNOW ADVISORY
ABOVE 8000 FT IN THE SACS. LIKELY JUST WET SNOW WHICH IS EASY TO
MELT...DON`T EXPECT MUCH ACCUMULATION BUT A FEW SPOTS OF PACKED SNOW
CLOUD DEVELOP ON ROADWAYS. OUT WEST...CLOUDS WILL BE THINNER AND
SOME WARMING AND DESTABILIZATION LIKELY. ACTUALLY MAY BE ONLY PLACE
FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. BACKDOOR FRONT LATER THIS MORNING WILL
ALSO BRING WINDS UP. EARLIER HRRR RUNS HAD SHOWN QUITE STRONG NORTH
WINDS DOWN THE TULAROSA AND THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEYS...AND TOYED
WITH IDEA OF ADVISORY. BUT LAST RUN OR TWO OF THE HRRR...THOUGH
STILL QUITE BRISK...HAS BACKED OFF SOME.

LOW WELL OUT OF AREA BY TUESDAY BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTS.
SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS ARIZONA WILL MOVE OVER THIS MOISTURE
AND WITH PROGGED STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE UPLIFT...LEFT LOWER POPS IN
FOR MOST OF THE CWA TUE/TUE NIGHT. SAME STORY FOR WEDNESDAY...STRONG
SYNOPTIC LIFT AHEAD OF INCOMING LOW FROM THE NORTH SO KEPT THE POPS
IN.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER LOW WILL DROP DOWN TO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO ALL AREAS EARLY BUT ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MID DAY THURSDAY AND SCOURS OUT REMAINING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. UPPER LOW WILL FUJIWARA UP TO NORTHEAST AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
WILL LINGER AROUND THIS LOW OVER THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY. SO LOW
POPS FOR THE NORTHER ZONES PROBABLY WARRANTED.

.AVIATION...VALID 13/12Z-14/12Z...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PERIOD DESPITE SOME
LOWER CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS THRU 00Z AS
AN UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE AREA. INITIALLY EXPECT VCSH
BKN050-070 WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT TOWARDS SCT-BKN200-250 AFTER 00Z.
WINDS WILL BE NORTH NORTHEASTERLY AT SPEEDS OF 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS
25-30 KTS. WINDS SHOULD DROP TO OR BELOW 12KTS AT ALL TAF SITES BY
06Z.

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO IMMEDIATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AS WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AND COLDER AIR SURGE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF AN EXITING UPPER LOW. WETTING PRECIP WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
PRIMARILY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WHILE WINDS BECOME RATHER
STRONG OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY. MIN RH VALUES
WILL RUN AROUND 30 PERCENT WEST TO WELL OVER 50 PERCENT EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL BE DROPPING
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ENHANCE SURFACE WINDS FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THAT THE AREA WILL AVOID RED FLAG CRITERIA THRU THIS PERIOD.
AS THE UPPER LOW SETTLES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
ADDITIONAL COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL WETTING PRECIP FOR PRIMARILY THE NORTHERN ZONES. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BRIEFLY DROP TO BETWEEN 7000 AND 7500 FEET THURSDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY WHICH COULD RESULT IN A COUPLE OF INCHES OF
SNOWFALL FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. A
RETURN TO DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS IS THEN EXPECTED OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 63 46 71 53 79 / 40 20 0 10 10
SIERRA BLANCA 55 45 67 49 78 / 40 30 0 0 10
LAS CRUCES 60 45 70 47 78 / 30 10 0 10 10
ALAMOGORDO 59 44 68 47 77 / 50 30 0 10 20
CLOUDCROFT 39 30 49 35 58 / 70 40 10 10 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 61 43 70 47 76 / 20 10 0 10 10
SILVER CITY 61 40 68 45 70 / 20 20 10 20 20
DEMING 66 43 71 46 79 / 20 10 10 10 10
LORDSBURG 69 43 73 45 77 / 20 10 10 10 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 60 46 71 54 79 / 40 20 0 10 10
DELL CITY 59 43 68 46 79 / 50 30 0 0 10
FORT HANCOCK 63 45 71 49 81 / 40 20 0 0 10
LOMA LINDA 54 43 67 51 75 / 40 20 0 0 10
FABENS 63 45 71 49 80 / 40 20 0 0 10
SANTA TERESA 60 43 70 49 79 / 30 20 0 10 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 57 46 69 52 78 / 40 20 0 10 20
JORNADA RANGE 61 38 70 43 78 / 30 20 0 10 20
HATCH 63 41 71 46 79 / 20 10 0 10 10
COLUMBUS 65 46 70 50 77 / 20 20 0 10 0
OROGRANDE 57 47 68 50 78 / 40 20 0 10 20
MAYHILL 45 33 57 41 65 / 70 40 10 10 20
MESCALERO 46 33 57 39 64 / 70 40 10 10 20
TIMBERON 47 34 57 40 65 / 70 40 10 10 20
WINSTON 59 34 67 40 68 / 20 20 10 20 10
HILLSBORO 61 40 71 46 75 / 20 20 0 20 10
SPACEPORT 61 41 71 43 78 / 30 10 0 10 20
LAKE ROBERTS 60 36 66 41 67 / 20 20 10 20 20
HURLEY 63 38 68 44 73 / 20 20 10 20 10
CLIFF 66 42 70 43 75 / 20 20 10 20 20
MULE CREEK 66 36 69 39 73 / 20 20 10 20 20
FAYWOOD 61 40 68 45 73 / 20 20 10 20 10
ANIMAS 70 45 73 49 77 / 20 10 10 10 0
HACHITA 68 44 72 46 78 / 20 10 10 10 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 66 45 72 47 76 / 20 10 10 10 0
CLOVERDALE 65 43 72 47 73 / 20 10 10 10 0

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ415.

TX...NONE.
&&

HEFNER/LANEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

106 AM CDT MON APR 13 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE MCS ONGOING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
AND THE COASTAL BEND HAS CLEARED DRT BUT WILL AFFECT SSF/SAT WITH
VCSH AND AUS WITH TSTMS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ATMOSPHERE WILL
BRIEFLY STABILIZE BEHIND THIS MCS AND WILL CAUSE CLEARING SKIES
IN THE NEAR TERM...WHICH COMBINED WITH WEAK WINDS AND WET GROUNDS
MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AT SSF/SAT/AUS. HRRR AND LAMP
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE AT SSF AND SAT...BUT
DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE HAVE KEPT IFR VSBYS IN AT SAT AND HAVE JUST
A TEMPO GROUP OF LIFR VSBYS AT SSF WHERE LOCAL CONDITIONS MAKE
DENSE FOG A BIT MORE LIKELY. REGARDLESS...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO
FILL BACK IN WITHIN THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS...LEADING TO IFR CIGS AT
SAT/SSF/AUS AND MVFR CIGS AT DRT. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY LATE
MORNING AT DRT AND EARLY AFTERNOON AT SSF/SAT/DRT.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015/

UPDATE...
GRIDS AND ZONES HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO CANCEL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH #57. CAPPING EVIDENT ON 00Z DRT SOUNDING AT 4-5 KFT AND SPC
MESOANALYSES LIKELY PREVENTED SEVERE WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE
SURFACE EARLIER THIS EVENING...AND THIS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
CONTINUES TO SPREAD OUT IN FRONT OF THE ONGOING LINE OF STORMS.
STRONGER SHEAR VALUES HAVE ALSO REMAINED SOUTH OF OUR CWA. ALTHOUGH
A FEW SPOTS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS BRIEFLY TRAIN IN FRONT OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE
LINE...HIRES MODELS SUGGEST THIS LINE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
COVERAGE WILL BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. GRIDS
HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS AS THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
STABILIZE FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING BEHIND THIS LINE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015/

AVIATION.../00Z TAFS/
MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE CONVECTION THAT WILL
LIKELY IMPACT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. LINE OS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AT
THIS TIME. LOOKS TO ARRIVE IN KDRT BETWEEN 2330Z AND 01Z. FOR THE
I-35 CORRIDOR LOOKS LIKE AROUND 04Z-05Z FOR KSAT/KSSF AND 05Z-06Z
FOR KAUS. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE RAIN AND SHOWERS BEHIND THE LINE
FOR A FEW HOURS. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING 10Z-12Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH 15Z. WILL SEE MVFR CIGS
DEVELOP 03Z-05Z THEN DOWN TO IFR AFTER 07Z-09Z. AFTER 17Z-19Z ALL
SITES SHOULD RETURN TO VFR. WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AND GUSTY IN
OR NEAR ANY CONVECTION WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

UPDATE...
UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS WITH ONGOING MCS MOVING INTO
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THAT CURRENTLY HAS TWO BOWING SEGMENTS. THE
FIRST HAS CROSSED INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY AND HAS ALREADY BEEN
ASSOCIATED WITH A SEVERE WIND GUST IN TERRELL COUNTY TO THE WEST.
THE SECOND BOWING SEGMENT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN COAHUILA MEXICO
AND WILL ENTER MAVERICK COUNTY AROUND 00Z. SHEAR VALUES OF APPROX
40 KT AND CAPE VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG ARE AHEAD OF THIS MORE
SOUTHERN BOWING SEGMENT...WHEREAS CAPE VALUES ARE HIGHER AROUND
3000 J/KG AND SHEAR VALUES ARE LOWER AROUND 30 KT WITH THE
NORTHERN BOWING SEGMENT. BASED ON THESE VALUES AND FORWARD
PROPAGATION SPEEDS OF 20-25 KT...EXPECT STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE
UP TO 70 MPH IN THE STRONGEST BOWING SEGMENTS WITH SEVERE WINDS UP
TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE IN OTHER NON- BOWING SEGMENTS OF THE GUST
FRONT. TORNADO THREAT AND SEVERE HAIL THREAT SHOULD BE LOW.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE EXTENDED FURTHER EAST BASED ON
ONGOING RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS. WILL UPDATE IF NEEDED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015/

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES FROM THE
WEST THIS EVENING...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
LATEST WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED CHANNELS ARE SHOWING A VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND APPROACH THE RIO GRANDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE MAJORITY OF THE HIRES SOLUTIONS AND MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS BRING A CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAINS OF
NORTHEAST MEXICO AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE AROUND 5 OR 6 PM THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING ACROSS THE
MEXICAN MOUNTAINS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. OVER
THAT SAME AREA...A SURFACE TROUGH IS PRESENT WITH LAPSE RATE
READINGS IN THE 7.5 TO 8.0 C/KM RANGE. ALSO...AREA FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR A COUPLE OF POINTS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE SUGGEST ML
CAPES OF 2000 J/KM AND DCAPE OF 800 J/KM...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT AND DAMAGING WIND DOWNDRAFTS. THE THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES AS THE CONVECTIVE LINE PUSHES AWAY
FROM THE RIO GRANDE AND APPROACHES HIGHWAY 281(THIS INCLUDES THE
SAN ANTONIO METRO AREA). STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE FORECAST TO
ARRIVE TO THE SAN ANTONIO AREA BETWEEN 9-11 PM THIS EVENING. AS
THE STORMS MOVE EAST OF HIGHWAY 281...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
AND TRANSITION TO HEAVY RAIN MAKERS. HOWEVER...CANT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER. ALSO...DUE TO THE HIGH VALUES OF PWATS ACROSS THE AREA
(1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES)...CANT RULE OUT SOME MINOR FLOODING ACROSS
AREA ROADS...UNDERPASSES AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH A BREAK FROM
THE RAIN THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A WET PATTERN CONTINUES ON TUESDAY WITH A BREAK ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE ATMOSPHERE SETS UP FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE RAINS ON
THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY AFFECTING THE
NORTHEAST HILL COUNTRY. NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS GOOD THIS FAR OUT THE
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 83 63 79 59 83 / 40 20 30 20 30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 82 63 78 58 80 / 40 20 40 20 30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 83 63 80 59 83 / 30 20 30 20 30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 81 60 76 55 81 / 40 30 20 20 30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 85 62 80 57 85 / 10 10 - 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 81 62 77 57 81 / 40 30 40 20 30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 84 62 81 58 82 / 10 10 20 20 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 83 63 78 59 81 / 30 20 30 20 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 81 66 78 62 82 / 50 30 40 20 40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 84 64 80 60 82 / 20 20 20 20 30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 84 65 81 61 82 / 20 20 20 20 30

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...00
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN ANGELO TX

1144 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Much of the convection has come to an end in and around the
forecast terminals, although a few decaying showers will persist
into the early morning hours. Relatively quiet conditions are
anticipated overnight, although we could see some patchy fog in
areas that clear out, mainly along the I-10 corridor west of KJCT.
Visibilities could be quite low in localized areas, but will carry
3 miles at KSOA for now. Otherwise, will monitor the remaining
sites for development. South winds tonight will continue into
Monday morning, but a cold front will move south into the area
tomorrow. This front is expected to reach KABI by early afternoon,
and KSJT around 00z. Expect scattered diurnal convection in the
vicinity of this boundary. Vicinity showers were included for
KABI, KSJT, and KBBD through the early evening hours, but may need
to be upgraded to thunder over the next few forecast cycles.

Johnson

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2015/

UPDATE...
See update discussion below.

DISCUSSION...
updated zones and grids to cancel severe thunderstorm watch #57.
Also, made some adjustment to POP grids, with likely POPS
remaining across mainly the Big Country for tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

A line of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will move
across the CWA this evening. This will likely result in thunder at
all terminals, mainly between 2-5z. Gusty outflow winds and
temporary MVFR ceilings and vsbys are anticipated. Precipitation
is expected to end by 06z, with primarily mid-level clouds
overnight. There could be some stratus at the southern terminals,
but confidence is too low to include at this time. Light southerly
winds tonight will veer to the southwest ahead of a cold front
that is forecast to reach KABI near or just after 18z Monday.
Diurnally driving showers and thunderstorms will be possible at
both KABI and KSJT Monday afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

Band of strong thunderstorms will likely move quickly east through
West Central Texas this evening. The storms moving through the Big
Bend and western Permian Basin at 3 PM CDT. With strong lift ahead
an upper low near El Paso, the short range models, including the
Texas Tech WRF and the HRRR indicate the line of storms to move into
Crockett County 5-6 PM...along a Sweetwater to San Angelo to Sonora
line around 8 PM...and an Abilene to Junction line 9-10 PM CDT.

There is the potential for a severe thunderstorm or two, as the SPC
mesoanalysis RUC indicated between 2000-3000 J/KG over the region.
The mostly likely impact however will be wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph
along the initial line of storms. SPC Day 1 Outlook has marginal
potential for severe storms for areas south of I-20 with a slight
risk just south of West Central Texas. This looks good as GFS 0-6 KM
shear was 20-35 KTS with the highest values along the I-10 corridor.
Rain chances diminish after midnight as the storm complex moves east.

West Central is somewhat dry-slotted Monday, at least south of the
I-20 corridor as the upper low moves slowly through. A weak cold
front will push through the Big Country late morning and afternoon,
bringing the the best chances of storms to the north. There is a
marginal potential for severe storms, but potential is somewhat
limited with lower GFS SB CAPES of 500 to 1500 mainly in northern
and eastern sections.

LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)

An interesting weather pattern is setting up for much of the week.
An upper-level low will be located over eastern New Mexico/western
parts of the Panhandle tomorrow evening, with a cold front dropping
south through the Big Country, and a dryline extending south through
western parts of the area (roughly along a Sweetwater to Sonora
line). Showers and thunderstorms will develop north of the front, as
south to southwest flow aloft maintains good isotropic ascent.
Additionally, a few showers or thunderstorms may develop in the warm
sector south of the front and ahead of the dryline. Isolated severe
thunderstorms may develop in this area, with locally heavy rain also
possible.

As the system departs the area Tuesday into Wednesday, drier air
will move back into the region. This will be short-lived however, as
another strong shortwave trough develops across the Inter-mountain
West, resulting in dryline development across western parts of the
Panhandle and West Texas Wednesday night/Thursday. Moisture will
again build across the area, with showers and thunderstorms possible
during this time period. As this next system departs the area Friday
and Saturday, dry air will move back into the region, with sunny
skies and warm temperatures expected.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 58 77 53 70 50 / 60 50 60 20 10
San Angelo 58 84 54 73 52 / 40 20 30 10 10
Junction 60 82 55 76 53 / 40 20 20 10 10

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

1008 AM CDT MON APR 13 2015

.UPDATE...

SURFACE TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA...WITH SURFACE
PRESSURE RISES OF 2-3 MB OVER THE PAST THREE HOURS. REMAINING
SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED OFFSHORE INTO LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING...WITH RAPID CLEARING ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. SKIES WILL
QUICKLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. EXPECT DEEP MIXING THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS EXTENDING THE MIXED LAYER UP
TO AROUND 730 MB BY 00Z. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MOMENTUM
TRANSFER INTO THE LOWER PBL...WITH WESTERLY WIND GUSTS REACHING
30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY EVENING WITH RAPID
COOLING AND DECOUPLING COMMENCING. VERY LOW DEWPOINTS...IN THE LOW
TO MID 20S...ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW RH VALUES. WHILE
RAIN FELL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THE LOW RH AND HIGH
WINDS STILL MAKE THIS A POOR DAY FOR BURNING.

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

CLEARING LINE JUST NORTHWEST OF MSN AT 10 AM...AND EXPECTED TO
REACH THE EASTERN TAF SITES BY AROUND 11 TO 1130 AM. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER...BUT EXPECT VFR CIGS AND VSBYS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.MARINE

WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
8PM TONIGHT.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

UPDATE...SPM
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HALBACH
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...REM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO

253 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

ALLOWED HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND WIND ADVISORIES TO EXPIRE. WEATHER
STATIONS ALONG THE FRONT IN WESTERN COLORADO ARE STILL REPORTING
GUSTS TO 30 MPH...BUT THE WORST IS OVER AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2015

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 951 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2015

THE COLD FRONT HAS REACHED KGJT AND IS RUNNING ALONG A SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST AXIS WHICH WILL SOON BE REACHING KMTJ...KTEX...AND
KRIL SHORTLY. GUSTY 25-35 KTS WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THIS FRONT PASSES AND
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS AS WEST NORTHWEST WINDS BRING
MUCH COOLER AIR TO THE REGION.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 411 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2015

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR COZ002-003-
006>008-011-020-021.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR COZ001-
006.

FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
COZ001-006-011.

UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR UTZ023-025-
028.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR UTZ022-
024-027-029.

FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
UTZ022-024-027-029.

UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM...LC
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...CK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO

1157 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2015

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 951 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2015

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 411 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2015

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ002-003-006>008-
011-020-021.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ001-006.

FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR COZ001-006-011.

UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ023-025-028.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ022-024-027-
029.

FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR UTZ022-024-027-029.

UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM...LC
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...CK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

159 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SEVERAL ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE PUBLIC GRIDS IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE AVIATION UPDATES. THE BIG CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE POPS
OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY THIS MORNING AS ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS
HEADS TOWARDS OUR AREA FROM TENNESSEE. THIS DOES NOT LOOK HEAVY
AND SHOULD NOT WORSEN ANY FLOODING OR CREATE NEW PROBLEMS...BUT
THE RAIN SHOULD MEASURE FOR MANY LOCATIONS EAST OF THE DANIEL
BOONE NATIONAL FORECAST ACCORDING TO NEAR TERM MODELS AND RADAR
TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 840 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

GIVEN THAT MUCH OF THE RAIN HAS SUBSIDED ACROSS THE REGION WE HAVE
DROPPED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REGION. ONGOING FLOODING WILL BE
COVERED BY FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

DIFFICULT FORECAST DUE TO VARIABLE CEILINGS. IN GENERAL...
LOWERING FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AS ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS IS POISED TO RIDE NORTHEAST OUT
OF TENNESSEE INTO MUCH OF SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. THE SHOWERS SHOULD
EXIT TO OUR EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A SHIFT IN LOW
LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. THIS DRIER...
DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL HELP TO SCOUR OUT THE LOWER CEILINGS. AS
SUCH...EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL LOCATIONS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JP/ABE
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...ABE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

328 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/FIRE WEATHER

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY MAY INCREASE FIRE DANGER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. AFTER SHOWERS ON THURSDAY...A
WARM AND DRY STRETCH FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOKS LIKELY. SOME
RAIN RETURNS FOR LATER SUNDAY.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

TWO MAIN ISSUES TO ADDRESS IN THE SHORT TERM. FIRST...BREEZY
CONDITIONS TODAY WILL INCREASE A RISK FOR SPREADABLE FIRES MAINLY
FOR DRY FUELS LIKE GRASS AND TREE LITTER AND PARTICULARLY FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL LOWER MI WHICH HAS BEEN DRYER THAN OTHER AREAS. PLEASE SEE
THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR SPECIFICS. SECONDLY...THURSDAY LOOKS
TO BE A SHOWERY DAY WITH A LOW RISK FOR A THUNDERSTORM.

OVERALL...MODELS ARE ZONING IN ON A SHOWERY SETUP FOR THURSDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA NOW WITH A WING OF WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVING
IN ALBEIT WITH WEAK FORCING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. GFS AND ECMWF ARE
SHOWING AT LEAST SOME SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG/EAST OF A LINE FROM
SOUTH HAVEN TO GRR TO MT. PLEASANT DURING THE DAY. THIS IS WHERE
MODEL QPF IS HIGHEST. INCREASED POPS A BIT FOR THIS EVENT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA GIVEN MODELS LOCKING IN ON THIS SCENARIO NOW. THE
RISK FOR THUNDER STILL LOOKS LOW TO ME AND I CONSIDERED REMOVING
MENTION OF IT ALTOGETHER...BASED ON NO CAPE TO BE FOUND ON ANY MODEL
SOUNDINGS. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM I SUPPOSE
IT IS POSSIBLE TO GET A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL NOT BE AS
WARM...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

EASTERLY WINDS TODAY ARE ALREADY UNDERWAY. USED THE HRRR THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE WINDS AND THEN A BLEND OF THE HI-RES WRF ARW
AND A SEPARATE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL BLEND FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT
TERM. LOOKS LIKE WINDS COULD STILL GUST IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE AT
TIMES TODAY.

FRIDAY LOOKS REALLY NICE. BUMPED HIGHS UP FOR MOST LOCATIONS TO 70.
A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD KEEP LAKESHORE
AREAS FROM HOLLAND TO THE NORTH SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

MODEL CONSISTENCY IS GOOD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE MAIN UPSHOT
BEING THAT RAIN MOVES IN ON SUNDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR WET
WEATHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SFC LOW AND UPPER TROUGH
AXIS MOVES OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. THE LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED
NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON MONDAY WITH VORT ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH
LOWER MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY. GIVEN WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS CRASHING TO
NEAR THE SFC...DO NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE WET SNOW ACROSS AT LEAST
THE NORTHERN ZONES AT TIMES ON TUESDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

EAST WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE... WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. ONLY HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WITH BASES
ABOVE 12,000 FT.

RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z THURSDAY
WITH THE THREAT OF LOWER MVFR OR IFR CIGS LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO MARINERS OUTSIDE OF A LOW RISK FOR A
THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH GUSTING UP TO 25...ALONG WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND MIN RH READINGS AROUND 20% OR
EVEN LOWER IN PLACES WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MAINLY FOR
ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS REGION HAS NOT
RECEIVED AS MUCH RAIN LATELY SO THE DRY FUELS LIKE GRASSES AND
TREE LITTER ARE MORE PREVALENT. PERSONS WITH BURN INTERESTS NEED
TO MONITOR FIRES CLOSELY TO PREVENT SPREADING GIVEN THE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH BREEZES PICKING UP LATE THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

DRY WEATHER THROUGH TODAY... THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN ON THURSDAY.
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE VERY LOW IN THE MAPLE RIVER
BASIN AND ZERO IN THE OTHER TWO BASINS CURRENTLY UNDER THE
ADVISORY. THIS WILL ALLOW THOSE RIVERS TO FALL BELOW BANKFULL OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...HOVING
SHORT TERM...HOVING
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...MEADE
FIRE WEATHER...HOVING
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...MJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

352 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

SHORT TERM FOCUS ON LOW RH AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TODAY...PROMOTING
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF NE MINNESOTA...AND A PORTION
OF NW WISCONSIN. PLEASE REFER TO LATEST FIRE WEATHER FORECAST FOR
MORE DETAILS.

THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION WILL BE SITUATED IN A WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE/SFC REFLECTION
LOW...CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. LATEST NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS DEPICT STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH MIXING HTS AROUND 6000 FT
THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 60S TO
AROUND 70F. THE VERY DRY AIR ALOFT...WITH DEW PTS IN THE
TEENS...WILL BE CAPABLE OF MIXING TO THE SFC THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE 15 TO 20
PERCENT RANGE. IN ADDITION...SOUTHERLY GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL
BE COMMON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIOD.

NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH WILL
PREVAIL FOR LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO THE WESTERN TIP AND ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. THE LAKE BREEZE WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS COOLER ALONG THE LAKE WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

THE SHORT WAVE SLIDES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA THIS
EVENING...TRACKING INTO FAR NORTHERN MINN THURSDAY. HAVE KEPT SCHC
POPS THURS ALONG THE BORDERLAND/IRON RANGE FOR A STRAY SHOWER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

THERE WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CENTRAL QUEBEC THURSDAY
EVENING...AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND THURSDAY EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF/NAM
ARE NOT INDICATING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF PCPN WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

A SHORTWAVE WILL CUT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AND MERGE WITH A WEAK LOW OVER ONTARIO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHLAND LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.
MOST OF THE MODELS KEEP PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND LOW
NORTH AND NE OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT GAVE LOW CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA SIMILAR TO THE NAM12/GEM. FRIDAY LOOKS WARM AND WINDY. GUSTY W
TO WNW WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. INCREASED THE
WINDS OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A HEAVY USE OF THE SREF/NAM
MODELS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ARE
NOW IN THE FORECAST. THE COMBINATION OF THE GUSTY WINDS AND DRY
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE FORECAST SHOWS SOME AREAS OF NE MINNESOTA
APPROACHING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE
OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A CLEAR AND COOL
NIGHT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALBERTA TO NW ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. IT WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN ALONG DURING THAT
PROCESS. THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF ARE SHOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHLAND EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AND
GRADUALLY DRAWING MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON SATURDAY SHOULD HELP GIVE THE
NORTHLAND A WARM AND SUNNY SATURDAY...THERE WILL LIKELY BE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ITS TROUGH BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE NORTHLAND. THE
GFS/GEM/ECMWF ARE INDICATING THE NORTHLAND HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. THE GFS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO NEARLY
1 INCH OVER THE NORTHLAND. THE GFS IS ABOUT 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER AT
MOVING THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH BOUNDARY AND PCPN THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. INCREASED THE PCPN CHANCES OVER THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND WE WILL LIKELY NEED TO INCREASE MUCH HIGHER
ONCE THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS
RAIN.

THE LOW SHOULD BE IN NW ONTARIO BY EARLY MONDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
SHOWING ANOTHER LOW IN THE MIDWEST LIFTING AND MERGING WITH THE
ONTARIO LOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE
MONDAY. THIS COULD CREATE AN EVEN LARGER AND DEEPER LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND WHICH COULD WOBBLE AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR AND
ONTARIO THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. IF THIS SCENARIO
HAPPENS...AS THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST...THEN THE NORTHLAND COULD
SEE A COUPLE DAYS OF COOL NW FLOW...BKN/OVC CLOUD COVER...AND LOW
CHANCES OF RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
LAST SEVERAL RAP RUNS SHOW A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING EARLY
THIS MORNING IN MINNESOTA...SO ADDED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO ALL
NE MINNESOTA TERMINALS BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WESTERN QUEBEC TODAY...WHILE A LOW MOVES
INTO NE MANITOBA. THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS ALL TAF SITES BY 16Z TO 17Z. THIS IN COMBINATION
WITH DAY TIME HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 64 41 59 40 / 0 10 10 0
INL 70 45 59 34 / 0 20 20 0
BRD 69 44 66 39 / 0 20 10 0
HYR 67 40 65 41 / 0 10 10 0
ASX 69 40 66 40 / 0 10 10 0

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ010>012-018-019-025-026-033>038.

WI...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
WIZ001-002-006>008.

LS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI/WL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

1258 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 522 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

UPDATED FOR HEADLINE INFORMATION AT THE BOTTOM...TO ADD FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR FAR NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING MUCH OF THE REGION UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE DAKOTAS.
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE ERN
DAKOTAS AND WRN MN WILL USHER IN A WARM AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION.
WILL ALSO SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAIN AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH MUCH STRONGER WINDS TO THE WEST OVER THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SOUTH WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE
SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 MPH
ON WED.

EXPECT TO SEE HIGH LEVEL THIN CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH WED
MORNING WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD THICKNESS IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE DAY UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AROUND
THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE FROM THE TWIN PORTS AND ALONG THE NORTH
SHORE WHERE A WEAK LAKE BREEZE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS NOTICEABLY
COOLER...IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

UPPER LEVEL/SFC RIDGING PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY
EVENING SUPPORTING NO PCPN. MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOW UP AFTER 06Z
THURSDAY. GFS/NAM BRING IN QPF WHILE ECMWF DRIER AND GEM HAS NO QPF.
USED A MODEL BLEND WHICH GAVE SMALL POPS TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
AREA IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
MAY CHANGE IN FUTURE RUNS AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARBY WHICH
IS KEEPING DRIER AIR FROM BEING OVERCOME BY MOISTURE. MAINTAINED THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST OF POPS ON THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE
DEPARTS. HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL
TRYING TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT
WAVE REACHING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL KEEP THURSDAY NIGHT PCPN
FREE AS DRIER AIR LOCKED IN WILL BE TOUGH TO OVERCOME. MAJOR
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FOR FRIDAY WITH THE GFS WET...ECMWF DRY
AND NAM/GEM IN BETWEEN. MAINTAINED THE BLENDED APPROACH WHICH
RESULTED IN VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM WHAT WAS ALREADY IN THE
FORECAST. DIALED DOWN THE QPF WITH SUCH LARGE DISCREPANCIES. THESE
DIFFERENCES PERSIST AND CONTINUED WITH THE BLENDED APPROACH WITH
POPS OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND IRON COUNTY WI AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES
AWAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REST OF THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA SATURDAY. MODELS REMAIN IN DISAGREEMENT
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND USED A CONSENSUS FOR POPS/QPF.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 43 62 42 64 / 10 10 10 20
INL 47 62 36 63 / 10 20 0 20
BRD 46 66 42 66 / 20 10 0 10
HYR 42 66 43 66 / 10 10 0 20
ASX 42 64 42 65 / 10 10 0 20

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON CDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ010>012-018-019-025-026-033>038.

WI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON CDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
WIZ001-002-006-007.

LS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI/WL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SPRINGFIELD MO

345 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 323 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

A weak shortwave lifting ne through the region today will bring a
good chance of light to occasionally moderate showers, particularly
over southern MO. HRRR radar sim output looks pretty solid in
terms of precip coverage and MOS guidance pops are fairly high,
especially this morning. The wfo blended output is somewhat lower.
Could be a rumble of thunder or two in south central MO, but
mainly just rw/rw-. Significant precip should end from sw to ne
late today and this evening.

Some fog potential is there for tonight with residual low level
moisture and a possible clearing sky late. Something for the next
shift to take a closer look at.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

Global models ECMWF/GFS/GEM have tended to slow down the eastward
progress just a bit with the upstream cutoff upper low expected to
move into the central Rockies today. Downstream upper level
ridging should limit precip chances Thursday and Thursday night
(still non-zero but low) with a warming trend also expected.

As the upper low shifts east precip chances will increase Friday and
into the weekend. A shortwave moving southeast from western Canada
is still expected to phase with and open up the southern stream
cutoff and shift the upper level trough axis east of the region
Monday morning.

Cooler than normal temperatures are then expected Monday and
Tuesday as a Canadian air mass settles in over the Midwest.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

An upper level disturbance will continue to bring scattered rain
showers to the region through Wednesday. Occasional MVFR
visibilities can be expected with heavier showers on Wednesday.
Ceilings will also lower into the MVFR category late tonight with
IFR then expected at Branson by early Wednesday morning. IFR
potential at Springfield and Joplin is a bit lower. Ceilings may
then improve for a time later Wednesday afternoon but will tend to
lower again Wednesday evening. Partial clearing will also be
possible starting late Wednesday evening. If this occurs, it may
open the door to fog potential.

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Schaumann

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

1149 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

Latest observations still showing MVFR conditions down across
Arkansas late this evening. As a result...have delayed onset of MVFR
restrictions until after 12z. Through the remainder of the
overnight...non-restricting -SHRA activity to impact area
terminals...with this trend continuing through much of the day before
conditions begin to dry after 22z. Once MVFR low stratus sets in after
14z...expect MVFR restrictions through the conclusion of the fcst
period.

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...32

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BILLINGS MT

327 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA TODAY. THE UPPER
LOW HAS MOVED INTO NORTHERN UTAH WITH STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE
WORKING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA. THIS DIFFLUENCE HAS BEEN
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS
OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA...DESPITE DRY AIR AT MID
LEVELS ENTRAINING INTO THE SYSTEM. ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR YELLOWSTONE COUNTY AND INCLUDED STILLWATER AND
EASTERN CARBON AS A BAND OF AGGRESSIVE SNOW SHOWERS WERE MOVING
INTO THE AREA. THIS BAND WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AND
COULD PRODUCE SNOW RATES OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH AN HOUR FOR 2
TO 4 HOURS. GRASSY SURFACES HAVE ALREADY ACCUMULATED A HALF INCH
AT THE OFFICE AND ROADS WERE BECOMING SLUSH COVERED. ROAD
CONDITIONS WILL GET WORSE THROUGH 6 AM WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW
MOVING IN. THE SNOW WILL MIX WITH SOME RAIN AND TAPER OFF IN
BILLINGS BY MID MORNING. SO THE MAIN EVENT FOR YELLOWSTONE COUNTY
WILL BE EARLY THIS MORNING.

DROPPED PARK COUNTY OUT OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. SNOW HAS
BEEN SPORADIC AND HRRR FOCUSES THE ASCENT EAST OF LIVINGSTON.
LIVINGSTON WILL STILL GET SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING...BUT THE
HEAVIER SNOW SHOULD BE EAST OF TOWN AND MORE ALIGNED WITH THE
BEARTOOTH AND RED LODGE FOOTHILLS. SPEAKING OF THE
FOOTHILLS...THESE LOCATIONS LOOK GOOD FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THIS
MORNING AND WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING. PRECIPITATION WAS
FILLING IN OVER THE WESTERN PART OF SOUTHERN BIG HORN COUNTY AT
THE MOMENT AND EXPECT THIS AREA...ALONG WITH SHERIDAN COUNTY...TO
FILL IN FURTHER THIS MORNING. BUMPED POPS FOR THESE LOCATIONS AND
KEPT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN PLACE. THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO PICK UP SNOW TODAY AS WELL AND ADVISORY THERE
LOOKS GOOD.

THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST SLOWLY TODAY AND PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS. BUMPED POPS BACK UP OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA
WITH A SLOWER EASTWARD PUSH OF THE SYSTEM. RAISED POPS OVER THE
EAST. THE EAST WILL BE A TOUGH CALL TODAY AS THE MAJORITY OF THEIR
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE DAYTIME AND THIS COULD LIMIT SNOW
POTENTIAL. GFS KEEPS 850MB TEMPERATURES ABOVE ZERO THERE TODAY SO
KEPT THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY RAIN.

PRECIPITATON SHOULD TAPER OFF FOR MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT. THE ONE
LOCATION TO WATCH IS THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER. THE GFS SWINGS SOME
ENERGY IN THERE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS IT WRAPS AROUND AN ELONGATED
UPPER TROUGH FROM NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.
RAISED POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS. LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY RAIN WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES ABOVE ZERO.

THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AND WARMER THE AS SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
PRECIPITATION TODAY SINKS SOUTH AND A WEST TO EAST RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES INTO MONTANA. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

FLAT UPPER RIDGING FRI THROUGH FRI NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING SE THROUGH THE AREA
SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH 70S
EXPECTED ON SAT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODEL DIFFERENCES IN QPF
PLACEMENT CONTINUED ALONG THE FRONT ON SAT. HAVE ADDED LOW POPS TO
THE SE ZONES PER THE ECMWF. KEPT POPS ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT
UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER LOW SHIFTS E THROUGH S CANADA.
THERE WERE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF SHORTWAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THROUGH THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THERE WAS AGREEMENT IN A DRIER PERIOD SUN THROUGH MON SO
HAVE GONE WITH LOW POPS OR POPS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. KEPT
MON NIGHT MOSTLY DRY...EVEN THROUGH THE GFS TRIED TO BRING A COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA. CONTINUED THE IDEA OF LOW POPS THROUGH TUE
NIGHT USING A MODEL BLEND. BOTH MODELS HAD A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING
INTO THE AREA FOR WED WITH VARYING QPF AMOUNTS. AGAIN USED A MODEL
BLEND FOR POPS.

SUN WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND A BIT FOR MON. THERE WAS POOR MODEL AGREEMENT ON TUE
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE COLDER AIR ON THE GFS WITH THE FRONT...SO
USED A MODEL BLEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE ON WED. ARTHUR

.AVIATION...

A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHED E THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...USHERING IN GUSTY NW SURFACE WINDS AND RAIN AND SNOW.
WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KT THROUGH THE DAY AND DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING. THERE WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE
AREA THIS MORNING THAT WILL PUSH TO THE E AND S OF KBIL THIS
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR TO IFR WITH AREAS OF LIFR IN
THE PRECIPITATION. CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW WILL LINGER E AND S
OF KBIL TONIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
TO VFR FROM KBIL W. THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE MAINLY OBSCURED TODAY.
THE OBSCURATIONS WILL DECREASE FROM W TO E TONIGHT. ARTHUR

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

TDY THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 045 032/059 037/064 041/068 039/059 037/061 038/061
7/W 10/U 00/U 02/W 22/W 21/B 12/W
LVM 044 025/058 031/064 038/065 034/057 033/060 036/061
6/W 00/U 00/U 02/W 22/W 21/B 12/W
HDN 046 032/060 035/066 038/070 036/060 034/062 035/062
8/W 20/B 00/U 01/B 22/W 11/B 11/N
MLS 051 034/061 036/067 040/072 036/058 034/058 034/058
7/W 40/U 00/U 01/U 22/W 11/N 11/N
4BQ 046 034/055 031/065 037/068 035/058 032/058 032/058
8/W 51/B 00/U 01/U 22/W 11/N 12/W
BHK 053 034/059 033/066 038/070 035/057 031/055 030/053
7/W 42/W 00/U 01/U 22/W 11/N 22/W
SHR 040 030/054 030/061 036/065 034/056 032/057 033/058
9/W 51/B 00/U 01/B 33/W 22/W 22/W

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR
ZONES 34-35-39.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT
FOR ZONE 38.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONES 56-66.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT
FOR ZONES 98-99.

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

421 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA THIS
MORNING...WITH UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY SLIDING NE ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN PORTIONS OF
KS/NE. THIS DISTURBANCE IS GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE PHASED WITH A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER NRN PORTIONS OF UTAH. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A FEW
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES HAVE DEVELOPED OVER FAR SERN NEB/ERN KS...BUT
THE CWA REMAINS DRY. AT THE SFC...SERLY WINDS ARE IN PLACE WITH
SPEEDS IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE...SET UP BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DRAPED ALONG THE
HIGH PLAINS. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES PUSHING NE
EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG WITH THE SERLY LOWER LEVEL
FLOW...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING CLOUD COVER MOVING NORTH
AS WELL. MOST OF THE CWA IS CURRENTLY MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT SERN
PORTIONS ARE SEEING MORE SKY COVER.

LOOKING TO THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY...AS
THE DISTURBANCE IN THE AREA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...BUT THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS STILL WELL OF TO THE WEST. EXPECTING THAT
UPWARD TREND IN SKY COVER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...AND WHILE
THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WIND DIRECTION...ARE EXPECTING
ANOTHER BREEZY DAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
OVER ERN PORTIONS OF COLORADO...AND THE RESULTING TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SPEEDS CLIMBING INTO THE 15 TO
25 MPH RANGE. BUMPED UP HIGHS A TOUCH FOR TODAY...NOT AS HIGH AS
THE RAP SUGGESTS...BUT CLOSE TO THE MET/MAV...WHICH GIVES MID 60S
FOR MOST OF THE CWA.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON THE LOWER SIDE WITH HOW
THINGS WILL EVOLVE...AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME PRETTY
NOTABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...PUSHING
FURTHER EAST THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE REGION. THERE IS SOME QUESTION
WITH THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
AREA...AND HOW QUICKLY IT DOES SO. WHILE SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE TO TIMING/LOCATION OF POPS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
DONE. CONTINUE TO HAVE POPS STARTING AT 00Z...BUT SOME MODELS
SUGGEST THAT IS TOO EARLY...THAT IT MAY BE CLOSER TO 03Z BEFORE
WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ARE AFFECTED. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE SHIFTING E/NE...BUT MODELS DIFFER WITH HOW FAR THINGS GET
PRIOR TO 12Z. IT RANGES FROM OUTPUT LIKE THE 4KM/ECMWF SHOWING
VERY LITTLE MAKING IT IN OR MOVING THROUGH...VS THE GFS/SREF WHICH
SHOW QPF FURTHER INTO THE N/NERN AREAS. EARLY ON...THERE IS THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW OF THOSE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR WRN AREAS TO BE
ON THE STRONG SIDE...BUT THE 00Z RUN OF MODELS GENERALLY SHOWED
MUCAPE VALUES TOPPING OUT IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE. THE SPC DAY
1 OUTLOOK CLIPS WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH A MARGINAL RISK
TODAY...WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF STRONG STORMS IN THE HWO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

THE BIG WEATHER STORY WILL CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND THE
INCREASINGLY LIKELY CHANCE OF APPRECIABLE RAINFALL THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MOST RECENT 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF
AND GFS SHOW QPF TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA IN THE PERIOD BEGINNING THURSDAY AND ENDING AT 6 AM
SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE PROLONGED OFF AND ON AGAIN SEVERAL DAYS
OF RAIN...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED SO SEE A FEW 3 DAY RAINFALL
TOTALS IN THE 4 TO 5 INCH RANGE...ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS ARE MORE
LIKELY TO SEE SOMETHING CLOSER TO THE 1 TO 3 INCHES INDICATED BY
THE MODELS. THE LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
AREAS OF STRONGER CONVECTION AS INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON AT LEAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
INSTABILITY BEGINS TO REALLY DECREASE BY SATURDAY. NORMALLY THESE
KIND OF RAINS WOULD SPARK FLOODING CONCERNS. ALTHOUGH WE CAN NOT
RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING...THE RAIN WILL COME ON AND OFF
AGAIN OVER SEVERAL DAYS AND WE HAVE BEEN ABNORMALLY DRY THUS
GREATLY LIMITING ANY FLOODING THREAT DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

ALL OF THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION IS A RESULT OF A SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL DIG ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...BECOME CUT OFF...AND THEN SLOWLY TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE
PLAINS. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS UPPER LOW
WILL TRACK VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE PLAINS DUE TO BEING CUT OFF FROM
THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE UPPER JET. THIS WILL ALLOW PLENTY OF
TIME FOR GULF MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
GIVE US A PROLONGED WINDOW OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FORECAST
MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE OVERALL TRACK OF THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM...WHICH AS
STATED EARLIER IS LOOKING PRETTY WET FOR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THINGS WILL
EVOLVE IN THE MESOSCALE AND STORM SCALE WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF
MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE LINES...AND EVEN POSSIBLE MCS ACTIVITY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST MODELS VARY ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
WE WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE 00Z GFS ACTUALLY HAS OVER
1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER
PRIMARILY OUR KANSAS COUNTIES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES SHOULD BE
AROUND 30 KTS IF NOT HIGHER AND THUS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE EITHER DAY WITH THE HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BEING ACROSS OUR KANSAS COUNTIES. FORECAST
MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN CALLING FOR HIGHS IN THE 60S DESPITE
CLOUDY SKIES AND OFF AND ON AGAIN RAIN SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THESE 60S IN THE FORECAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL FINALLY BE EJECTING
INTO THE PLAINS AT SOME POINT ON SATURDAY AND THIS IS WHEN THE
FORECAST MODELS START TO DIVERGE. OVERALL MOST MODELS STILL GIVE
US A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTH THROUGH THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...BY SUNDAY THE UPPER
LOW WILL HAVE WEAKENED AND POSSIBLY EVEN TRACKED EAST OF OUR AREA
THUS THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LOWER AND MAY NEED TO BE EVEN
LOWER OR TAKEN OUT ALTOGETHER DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE IN
THE COMING DAYS. INSTABILITY IS GENERALLY WEAKER THAN THE
PRECEDING DAYS AND THUS SEVERE WEATHER CURRENTLY SEEMS UNLIKELY
UNLESS SOMETHING WERE TO CHANGE. HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE IN THE 60S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THIS TAF IS NOT THE HIGHEST...ESPECIALLY AS
WE GET FURTHER INTO TODAY/THIS EVENING. AT THIS TIME...KEPT THINGS
VFR. SHOULD SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER SLIDING IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST WITH TIME...BUT LOOKING AT OBS UPSTREAMS CEILINGS ARE
ABOVE 3K FT. LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD /THIS EVENING/...THERE LOOKS
TO BE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS...AND INSERTED A SCT
MENTION FOR NOW AND WILL SEE HOW UPCOMING MODEL RUNS TREND. WITH
THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOKING TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
VERY END OR JUST BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD...KEPT MENTION OUT BUT ONE
MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE 12Z TAF FORECAST. WINDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD
REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY...AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY ONCE AGAIN
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...ADP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

1244 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

MAIN CONCERN IS INCREASING WINDS THE PAST HOUR OR TWO...LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. THIS MIXING WILL KEEP
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 30 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE TO 40-50
PERCENT TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE THE RED FLAG WARNING ON TIME AT 03 UTC. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS ON TRACK AND
BLENDED TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 03 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 804 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM 25-35 KNOTS AT
KDIK/KBIS/KMOT...WITH KJMS INCREASING TO 25-35 KNOTS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING. KISN IS NEAR A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND WINDS THERE
EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10-15 KNOTS. ADDED A WIND SHEAR
COMPONENT WITH A 50 KNOT WIND AROUND 1400-2000FEET. THE SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH KISN BY AROUND 16Z...AND AT KDIK
AROUND 18Z-20Z. THE STRONGEST WINDS AFTER 12Z SHOULD BE AT KJMS WITH
STRONGEST WINDS FROM 15Z-24Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD WITH SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ENCROACHING FROM MONTANA.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1018 P CDT TUE APR 14 2015

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON CDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ004-005-012-013-022-023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...CK
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JV
FIRE WEATHER...AYD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

454 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH. PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. COLD FRONT CROSSES ON SATURDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
430 AM UPDATE...UPDATED POPS AND WEATHER BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR. THE HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SLUG OF
MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD.

...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO
THE SOUTH. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE VIRGINIA ZONES DURING
THE DAY TODAY AND SPREADING SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. INSTABILITY IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE TODAY...BUT
THERE COULD BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER HEARD. FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE MOISTURE AND
POPS.

WENT WITH A BLEND OF MET AND MAV TEMPERATURES TODAY WHICH WAS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. HOW
MUCH CLEARING OCCURS ACROSS THE NORTH AND HOW FAR NORTH THE
SHOWERS DRIFT COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES.
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY BE WARMER THAN THE SOUTHERN
HALF GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLEARER CONDITIONS.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE EMERGES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS...NORTHEAST INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW INSTABILITY TO
OUR SOUTHWEST WITH CAPE VALUES FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL
KY. BUT THIS INSTABILITY NEVER MAKES IT INTO OUR AREA.
THEREFORE...CODED MODERATE SHOWERS WITH NO THUNDER THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...CAPE VALUES INCREASES OVER THE AREA MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...IT
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN UPPER WAVE GENERATE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE...KEPT CHANCE POPS WITH MENTION OF THUNDER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. DECREASED POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
SATURDAY...INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS.

EXPECT MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WENT WITH THE ALL BLEND
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS AND HIGHS.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SRN STREAM DOMINATES THE CWA EARLY ON...WITH A WEAK WAVE MOVING
THROUGH LATE FRI NT INTO SAT. A NRN STREAM S/W TROUGH MAY STILL DIG
FAR ENOUGH S TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT AT LEAST INTO THE AREA LATE SAT.
THIS MAY BRING A BRIEF INTERLUDE OF DRY TO ONLY SCHC POPS AT LEAST
ACROSS THE N SAT NT INTO SUN.

TEMPERATURES A BIT HIGHER EARLY ON BUT OTHERWISE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
WITH NO MAJOR DEVIATIONS FROM WPC INCLUDING THE NEW DAY 7.

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR NORTH AND MVFR SOUTH CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z. THERE WILL
ALSO BE IFR CONDITIONS OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND THE
MOUNTAINS. MOVED THE MVFR CIGS FURTHER NORTH INTO KHTS AND KCRW.
AFTER 18Z CIGS WILL BECOME VFR IN AND AROUND KCRW...BUT SHOULD
STAY MVFR OVER HTS. MVFR CIGS BREAKS UP AFTER 00Z.

SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTH DURING THE DAY AND AFFECT
KBKW...KHTS...AND KCRW.

LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL SWING TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
PERIOD. EXPECT GUSTY OF 15 TO 20 KTS IN KBKW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR/LIFR COULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND LAST
LONGER THAN FORECASTED. HEAVY RAIN COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY FOR
SHORT PERIODS OF TIME.

DATE WED 04/15/15
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AT
VARIOUS TIMES THRU THE WEEK.

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ
NEAR TERM...FB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...FB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

108 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

.AVIATION...
11-3.9 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR. CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO MVFR THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO COOL. VWP
FROM KDFX RADAR ALSO INDICATES SOUTHERLY FLOW INTACT ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE AND WE/LL ALSO MENTION TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS AT KDRT.
CLOUDS WILL LIFT/SCATTER WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON. TOWARD THE END OF THE 30 HOUR TAFS...
MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN AFTER 16/04Z.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015/

UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR EDITS TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE. TRENDED THE HOURLY GRIDS
TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. POPS WERE TRIMMED BACK SLIGHTLY
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE HRRR DOES STILL SHOW SOME SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT ACROSS ATASCOSA...KARNES...AND DEWITT
COUNTIES SO LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS.
MORE SIGNIFICANT EDITS WERE MADE TO THE SKY GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
IR SATELLITE IMAGES AND MODEL FORECASTS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

TREADWAY

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 82 64 80 65 80 / 10 10 60 60 50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 82 63 79 64 78 / 10 20 60 60 50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 82 64 80 65 79 / 20 20 60 50 60
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 81 63 78 63 77 / 10 20 60 60 50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 85 65 83 65 81 / 20 40 40 50 50
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 81 63 79 64 79 / 10 10 60 60 50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 83 65 81 65 78 / 20 20 50 50 60
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 81 64 79 65 78 / 10 20 60 50 60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 81 65 80 67 80 / 20 20 60 50 70
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 83 65 80 67 79 / 20 20 60 60 60
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 84 66 80 67 78 / 20 20 50 50 60

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX

1240 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION.

.AVIATION...HAVE IMPROVED CIGS A BIT OVERNIGHT...SURFACE LAYER A
BIT DRIER THAN RECENT TAF PERIODS AND SHOULD LIMIT LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT. COULD SEE SEE TEMPO PERIODS OF IFR CIGS FOR EASTERN
SITES. PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE TOMORROW...THOUGH ONLY 20-30
PERCENT. HAVE MAINLY VC GROUPS FOR SH AND TS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 822 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015/

DISCUSSION...CURRENTLY QUIET ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING. WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS DRIER MID/UPPER LEVELS ACROSS S TX, WHICH IS
ALSO EVIDENT ON THE 00Z CRP SOUNDING, AND A SHORT WAVE ACROSS FAR
W TX. THE SOUNDING ALSO SHOWED A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT THAN THE
PAST FEW NIGHTS. AM NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED SVR WX TONIGHT,
HOWEVER, A WEAK BDRY IS PROGD TO MEANDER ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND
AND MOISTURE IS PROGD TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THE GFS/HRRR/RAP/
SHOW WEAK ECHOES/LIGHT PRECIP DVLPG ACROSS MAINLY THE E CWA
OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE, WILL KEEP THE 20-30 POPS IN PLACE FOR
TONIGHT. NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 00Z TAF UPDATE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 81 70 80 71 81 / 30 20 50 40 60
VICTORIA 81 67 78 68 79 / 30 20 60 40 60
LAREDO 85 69 86 70 85 / 20 20 40 30 40
ALICE 84 68 83 70 83 / 30 20 50 40 60
ROCKPORT 78 70 76 71 76 / 30 20 60 40 60
COTULLA 84 67 82 68 83 / 20 20 40 30 40
KINGSVILLE 84 69 82 71 83 / 30 20 40 30 60
NAVY CORPUS 78 70 77 71 78 / 30 20 50 40 60

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

PZ/83...AVIATION

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

558 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
TODAY INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY. WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH A STRONG WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO KEEP COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR RETURNS BY WEEKS END AHEAD OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 550 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SENDING AN UPDATE TO RAISE POPS TO MORE WIDESPREAD LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL COVERAGE ESPCLY IN THE WEST GIVEN CURRENT EXPANSE OF
RAIN SEEN TO THE SW WITH THE NEXT WAVE. APPEARS LATEST HRRR NOW
BEST IN SLIDING MUCH OF THIS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF THIS MORNING
BEFORE COVERAGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SE AS THE WEDGE DEEPENS FROM
THE NE. ALSO BUMPED UP POPS JUST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE A
PERIOD OF RAIN ALSO LIKELY INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SOME DRYING
OCCURS FROM THE NE LATER ON. ALSO LOWERED TEMPS A LITTLE MORE
BASED ON CURRENT VALUES AND LIKELY LIMITED RISES UNDER THE
CLOUDS/RAIN INTO MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME SPOTS WILL
ONLY RISE A FEW DEGREES AT BEST WITH HIGHS MOSTLY 50S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 252 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FRONT NOW WELL TO THE SOUTH REMAINS THE FOCUS FOR ADDED PRECIP CHANCES
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS PIECES OF ENERGY EJECT EAST FROM THE RESIDUAL
5H LOW OVER THE PLAINS AND CAUSE WEAK SURFACE WAVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
THIS WHILE LOW LEVEL WEDGING ENHANCES ALONG/EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LATER TONIGHT. SQUEEZE PLAY IN BETWEEN THE TWO TO MAKE FOR ADDED
PERIODS OF RAIN ESPCLY SOUTHERN HALF TODAY AND ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
WEST OVERNIGHT.

HOWEVER JUST HOW FAR NORTH SIGNIFICANT RAIN MAKES IT TODAY STILL TRICKY
GIVEN DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS ON TIMING OF THE DEVELOPING WEDGE FROM
THE NE AND STRENGTH OF OVERRUNNING/DIFFLUENCE ALOFT PER JET AXIS
OVERTOP THE CAD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR QUITE WET
ACROSS THE REGION BUT APPEARS RATHER FAST AND PERHAPS OVERDONE
SIMILAR TO THE NAM...WHILE THE GFS/EC AND HIRES GUIDANCE BRING
DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTH/SW THIS MORNING BEFORE SHUNTING MORE
TO THE SE LATER IN THE DAY. SINCE APPEARS OFF THE LATEST OBS/MSAS
THAT THE WEDGE IS MAKING SOME INROADS FROM THE NORTH WILL FOLLOW
CLOSER TO THE LATEST SREF COMPROMISE AND RAISE POPS TO LIKELY
SOUTHERN TIER AND HIGHER CHANCES WEST WITH ONLY LOW TO SLIGHT
POPS FAR NE TODAY. DOESN`T APPEAR RAINFALL RATES OR FORECAST QPF
WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE THE NEED FOR ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT
THIS TIME OVER THE SW GIVEN LESS UPSLOPE BUT ANOTHER GOOD HALF TO
AN INCH POSSIBLE NW NC MOUNTAINS. LEFT TEMPS QUITE COOL GIVEN THE
WEDGE UNDER LOW CLOUDS/RAIN WITH HIGHS ONLY RISING A BIT INTO THE
50S...TO PERHAPS AROUND 60 IN SPOTS OVER THE FAR WEST...AND NE
WHERE SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW DECK COULD OCCUR AT TIMES.

UPPER SUPPORT ELONGATES OUT OVERNIGHT AS THE REGION REMAINS STUCK
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE NE AND RESIDUAL LOW PRESSURE
BACK ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE FLOW TO
BECOME MORE OF A SE UPSLOPE COMPONENT OVER THE SW AS ANOTHER WAVE
OF LIFT PUSHES EAST TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS FROM SHORTWAVE ENERGY
PASSING WELL TO THE NW. SOME SOLUTIONS ESPCLY THE NAM/EC BASICALLY
CONNECT THE AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE/LIFT FROM TODAY OVER THE SE TO
THE NEXT IMPULSE HEADING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WOULD KEEP RAIN
GOING FROM SE WEST VA ACROSS EXTREME SW VA INTO NW NC FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT WHILE HAVING THINGS DRY OUT TO SOME DEGREE OVER THE NE.
AGAIN THINK THIS IS OVERDONE BUT EXPECT MORE RAIN TO ARRIVE WEST
LATE SO UPPED POPS TO HIGHER CHANCE WESTERN HALF...AND KEPT
LIKELY/CHANCE GOING SW OVERNIGHT FOR BETTER SE FLOW. LOWS MOSTLY
ON THE COOL SIDE WITH 40S MOST SPOTS UNDER THE CAD BY MORNING.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. A 1033 MB HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST THURSDAY AND WEAKEN AS IT
SLIDE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODELS ARE STILL DISPLAYING
A SURFACE REFLECTIONS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WHICH INTENSIFIES
INTO A SURFACE LOW AND LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO FRIDAY.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW
PRESSURE TO SOUTH WILL BRING A STRONG FETCH OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE THURSDAY. UNDER PLENTY OF CLOUDS...LEANED TOWARDS THE
COOLER MOS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WITH READINGS FROM THE
UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE PIEDMONT.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...LEANED POPS TOWARDS THE NAM WITH HIGHER POPS
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...THEN TAPERING OFF BY 12Z FRIDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE PIEDMONT.

ON FRIDAY...THE COASTAL LOW LIFTS NORTH INTO THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...WHILE A WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE REGION. A
SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE EAST AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WASHES OUT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE
WARMER THAN THURSDAY WITH VALUES VARYING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN
ALOFT CUT BACK POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT TO SLIGHT CHANCE. LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S IN THE WEST
TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE EAST.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT TUESDAY...

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY
WITH A POSSIBLE CLOSED LOW HOVERING OVER THE OZARKS. THERE WILL
REMAIN A GOOD FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF THROUGH
THE WEEKEND TO KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS. THE MAIN QUESTION REGARDING
RAIN IS TIMING. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK TO BRING AN END TO THE RAIN. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN IN THE
FORECAST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL BUT NOT TO FAR REMOVED FROM
NORMAL.

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

CIGS HAVE SLOWLY IMPROVED TO AT LEAST MVFR IN MANY LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SPOTS ALONG THE RIDGES WHERE
IFR/LIFR IN STRATUS/FOG/DZ PERSISTS. HOWEVER EXPECT ANY BRIEF
DRYING BEHIND THE INITIAL EXITING WAVE TO END TOWARD DAYBREAK AS
ANOTHER IMPULSE PUSHES DEEPER MOISTURE INCLUDING -RA BACK NE INTO
THE AREA. AHEAD OF THIS EXPECTING VARYING CONDITIONS FROM MORE
MVFR/IFR IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO PERHAPS MORE HIGH
END MVFR FROM KROA AND POINTS EAST AS DRY AIR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH WEDGES IN.

SQUEEZE PLAY CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND MOISTURE TRYING TO RIDE
IN FROM THE SW WITH THE NEXT IMPULSE. HOW FAR NORTH/NE TO TAKE
PRECIP REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE BUT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES OF
SEEING VSBY REDUCTIONS IN -RA ARE ALONG THE KBLF-KBCB-KDAN
CORRIDOR AND POINTS SW INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALSO
BE WHERE MORE IN THE WAY OF CONTINUING IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL WITH PERHAPS A PERIOD OF VFR AT KLYH WITH KROA MOSTLY MVFR
WITH ONLY SPOTTY -RA.

MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW FAST THE PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY GETS SHUNTED
TO THE SOUTH WITH THE NAM QUITE WET INTO THURSDAY WITH OTHERS
SHOWING A BREAK WED NIGHT AND THEN MORE -RA WITH ANOTHER FEATURE
ON THURSDAY. EITHER WAY APPEARS OVERALL SUB-VFR WILL BE THE RULE
WITH ONLY PERIODIC IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLY OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS...AFFECTING THE KLWB-KLYH ROUTE.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

THE WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH CONTINUED
IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS AND OCNL MVFR VSBYS IN -RA/DZ/FOG.

ON FRIDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ONCE THE WEDGE BREAKS.

ON SATURDAY THE FRONT COMES THROUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECTING OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS UNTIL THE FRONT
PASSES.

SUNDAY A DRIER AIR MASS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS IS A SLOWER TIMING THAN THE PAST
FEW RUNS OF THE MODELS. ONCE THIS DRIER AIR ARRIVES...CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE BACK TO VFR.

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

RUNOFF FROM EARLIER HEAVY RAINFALL OF AROUND 2 INCHES IN SPOTS
ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND VIRGINIA HIGHLANDS WILL CONTINUE
TO FILTER INTO MAINSTEM WATERWAYS AND RESULT IN NEAR BANKFULL
CONDITIONS FOR MANY STREAMS AND CREEKS TODAY. HOWEVER LATEST
FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT MOST RIVERS INCLUDING THE GREENBRIER AT
ALDERSON AND THE JAMES DOWNSTREAM FROM LICK RUN WILL REMAIN BELOW
FLOOD STAGE BASED ON THIS EARLIER RAINFALL.

ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL SPREAD BACK ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION TODAY
RESULTING IN ANOTHER HALF TO ONE INCH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA. HOWEVER RAINFALL RATES AND FORECASTED QPF SHOULD NOT BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOOD PROBLEMS BUT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED GIVEN
DIFFERING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ACROSS THE REGION. ELSEWHERE TOTALS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER LIGHT WITH TOTALS RANGING FROM A
QUARTER/HALF INCH OVER THE SW TO LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...AMS/JH/MBS
HYDROLOGY...WP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

415 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 252 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT TUESDAY...

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

EXTENDED AVIATION...

THE WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH CONTINUED
IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS AND OCNL MVFR VSBYS IN -RA/DZ/FOG.

ON FRIDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ONCE THE WEDGE BREAKS.

ON SATURDAY THE FRONT COMES THROUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECTING OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS UNTIL THE FRONT
PASSES.

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...AMS/JH/MBS
HYDROLOGY...JH/WP

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW LEVEL
WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST AS THE HIGH
DRIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. DEWPOINTS HAVE RECOVERED
SOMEWHAT...BUT EAGLE RIVER AND ARBOR VITAE HAVE RECENTLY DROPPED
BACK INTO THE TEENS...AND PWATS REMAIN AROUND 0.30 INCHES. THIN
CIRRUS IS SLOWLY WORKING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF WEAK SHORTWAVES OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE VERY DRY AIRMASS
RECIRCULATING OVER THE AREA TODAY...TEMPS/WIND GUSTS/HUMIDITIES
REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
EAST TODAY...BUT STILL REMAIN IN FIRM CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST...EMANATING
OUT OF THIS DRY SURFACE HIGH...AND OFFER NO REPRIEVE FROM THE VERY
DRY CONDITIONS AS OF LATE. ALTHOUGH MIXING HEIGHTS ARE NOT
PROJECTED TO BE AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY...STRONGER WINDS ALOFT SHOULD
BE ABLE TO TAP INTO THE VERY DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE INVERSION AND
MIX TO THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON. PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE GUSTS
COULD REACH UP TO AROUND 20 KTS. THESE GUSTS COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN
THE MID 60S AND HUMIDITIES IN THE MID TEENS WILL RESULT IN A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE REGION. WITH COORDINATION FROM
SURROUNDING OFFICES AND THE DNR...WILL UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH INTO A RED FLAG WARNING. OTHERWISE...CIRRUS WILL GRADUALLY
INVADE FROM THE SOUTH TO OFFER FILTERED SUNSHINE AT TIMES. TEMPS
WILL BE MUCH COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

TONIGHT...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL LIFT INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A VEIL OF THIN CIRRUS OVERHEAD AS MID
AND LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MAKE A RUN
INTO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT LOOKS TOO FAR
SOUTHEAST TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. AS A
RESULT...WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH WARMER LOWS RANGING FROM
THE MIDDLE 30S NORTH TO THE LOW 40S SOUTH.

THURSDAY...DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW NNE ACROSS THE LOWER
PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO MINNESOTA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WISCONSIN WILL RESIDE BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WITH AN
AREA OF VERY DRY LOW AND MID LEVEL AIR REMAINING IN PLACE. THOUGH
THE AIR WILL BE MODIFIED...STILL PLENTY OF DRY AIR TO TAP INTO JUST
ABOVE THE INVERSION BUT WILL NOT HAVE THE GOOD MECHANICAL MIXING
LIKE TODAY. SO WILL HAVE HUMIDITIES FALLING TO AROUND 25 PCT IN THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL APPROACH CRITICAL LEVELS. WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS THOUGH SO NOT EXPECTING A REPEAT OF TODAYS
CRITICAL VALUES. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED EARLY IN THE PERIOD OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AS CUT OFF LOW MEANDERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES. BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WILL OPEN UP AND BE PICKED UP BY 500MB
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE 500MB TROUGH ACROSS
CANADA WILL EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...BRINGING COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE REGION.

FOR FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...SO WILL
TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS SHOULD FALL TO
30 TO 45 PERCENT AT MOST PLACES. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE DAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS DID SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME SHOWERS.
IF SHOWERS DO DEVELOP...SOME OF THEM COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED INVERTED V STRUCTURE TO SUPPORT THE GUSTY
WINDS. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY ON NORTHEAST/EAST
WINDS. INCREASED MAX TEMPERATURE GRADIENT DUE TO WINDS OFF THE COOLER
BAY AND LAKE...WHILE CENTRAL WISCONSIN COULD STILL REACH THE
MIDDLE 60S. AGAIN...RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS AWAY FROM THE BAY AND
LAKE COULD FALL TO 25 TO 35 PERCENT AGAIN.

BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL RUNS TONIGHT...SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT IS QUICKER THAN LAST NIGHT. DID INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD LINGER INTO MONDAY. COOLER CYCLONIC
FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 948 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
WIZ030-035>037-045.
&&

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......TDH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

936 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR TODAY FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO. A SURFACE LOW
WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH THE DAY. THERE
WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT AND A DRY LINE DRAPED
OVER EASTERN COLORADO. EAST OF THE DRY LINE DEW POINTS SHOULD CLIMB
INTO THE 40S WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. COULD SEE A
SEVERE STORM EAST OF THIS DRY LINE. FOR THE FORECAST AREA...BEST
CHANCE WOULD BE OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER AND POSSIBLY EASTERN
WASHINGTON COUNTY.

HAVE LITTLE FAITH IN THE HRRR AND RAP FOR SHORT TERM DETAILS. IT
SHOWS SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER...RADAR IS SHOWING NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS PROGRESSING
SOUTH AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THESE NORTHERLY WINDS TO KEEP MORE
MOISTURE OVER THE FRONT RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAN
MOST OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS EVEN
THOUGH THE HIRES SHORT TERM MODELS ARE DRY.

WARMED TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 70 DEGREES AND ALSO LOWERED DEW
POINTS BEHIND THE DRY LINE.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 441 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

MOST OF THE PLAINS WILL SEE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY TODAY AS A SURFACE
LOW REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE STATE. AT THE SAME
TIME...SOUTHWEST FLOW AT MID-LEVELS WILL BE INCREASING AS AN UPPER
LOW INTENSIFIES OVER WESTERN COLORADO AND MOVES INTO POSITION OVER
THE FOUR-CORNERS AREA. DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LOW WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE
PLAINS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE STRONG
DOWNSLOPING EFFECT OF THE SOUTHWEST WINDS ROTATING AROUND THE
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM. BY LATER THIS EVENING...A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL DROP DOWN THE FRONT RANGE FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL
SWITCH THE WINDS TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND BRING COOLING
TEMPERATURES. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ALSO SPREAD ONTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN FILL IN SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH THROUGH THE
EVENING THAT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS REMAINS AS RAIN.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME COOL ENOUGH FOR
PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. ALTHOUGH WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES ONLY AROUND THE FREEZING MARK...THE SNOW WILL HAVE A
HARD TIME ACCUMULATING. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATER IN THE STORM CYCLE.
MOUNTAINS AREAS MAY PICK UP A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL
OVERNIGHT...BUT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
LATER IN THE STORM...IF IT REMAINS OVER THE STATE LONG ENOUGH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

OVERALL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW BEING CENTERED NR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AT 12Z THU WHICH
WILL STAY NEARLY STATIONARY OR DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH INTO NWRN NEW
MEXICO BY THU NIGHT. BY THU AFTN INTO THU NIGHT A 700 MB LOW WILL
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER SRN CO/NRN NM AS SFC HIGH PRES REMAINS
OVER WY WHILE SFC LOW PRES IS OVER NM. THIS LEADS TO INCREASING ELY
LOW LVL FLOW ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT INTO FRI WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR
DEEPER LOW LVL MOISTURE TO ADVECT IN FM THE EAST. MEANWHILE THERE
WILL BE MID LVL ASCENT AND FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE AREA AS
WELL. OVERALL THERE APPEARS TO BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR HEAVY
WET SNOW THU NIGHT INTO FRI IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS BUFFER DATA SUGGEST SNOW LEVELS WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE
5500 FEET WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX BETWEEN 5000 AND 5500 FT.

ON FRI THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW. THE ECMWF AND TO SOME EXTENT THE GFS BEGIN TO LIFT A
SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY INTO ERN CO WHICH ALLOWS FOR THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO MOVE ENE INTO SCNTRL OR SERN CO BY FRI AFTN. MEANWHILE
THE GEM MODEL KEEPS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW BACK OVER SWRN CO/NWRN
NM THRU FRI AFTN. AT THIS POINT NOT SURE WHICH SOLUTION IS THE BEST
HOWEVER WITH ELY UPSLOPE FLOW...MID LVL ASCENT AND DECENT LAPSE
RATES STILL IN PLACE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS OF HEAVIER PCPN
THRU FRI AFTN ONE WOULD THINK.

BY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT THE GEM MODEL BEGINS TO MOVE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
EASTWARD ACROSS NRN NEW MEXICO WITH SOME TYPE OF NRN EXTENSION OVER
ERN CO BY SAT AFTN. MEANWHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE MAIN UPPER
EVENTUALLY BECOMING MORE ELONGATED FM ERN CO INTO NERN NM AS WELL.
THE SREF MEAN SOLUTION STILL HAS A MORE CONSOLIDATED UPPER LEVEL LOW
ALONG THE SRN CO/NRN NM BORDER AREA THRU 18Z SAT. OVERALL SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME PCPN THRU FRI NIGHT HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN SAT
FCST IS RATHER LOW AT THIS POINT. IF THE SYSTEM STAYS MORE
CONSOLIDATED LIKE THE SREF SHOWS AND STAYS OVER SRN CO/NRN NM THEN
PCPN COULD LINGER WELL INTO SAT.

AT THIS TIME THERE IS AN INCREASING THREAT FOR A DECENT SPRING
STORM FM THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT SO WILL ISSUE A WATCH FOR THE
MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. SNOW LEVELS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT ARE STILL NOT
CERTAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS SO WILL KEEP A RAIN SNOW MIX BETWEEN
5000 TO 5500 FT WITH RAIN BELOW 5000 FT. ITS POSSIBLE THE FAR WRN
AND SRN SUBURBS IN THE 5500-6000 FT RANGE COULD RECEIVE SOME
HEAVIER SNOWFALL BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO
ISSUE A WATCH. QPF AMOUNTS FM THE MODELS GENERALLY AVERAGE FM 1 TO
2 INCHES OF WATER FOR THE EVENT HOWEVER SOME AREAS COULD RECEIVE
UP TO 3 INCHES OF WATER.

BY SAT NIGHT INTO SUN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA HOWEVER AS IT DOES SO A DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW ALOFT MAY AFFECT
THE AREA ON SUN AS ANOTHER PUSH OF COOLER AIR MOVES INTO NERN CO.
CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW DECENT MOISTURE AND SOME MID LVL ASCENT WITH
THIS FEATURE SO COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN MAINLY ON SUN.
TEMP PROFILE SHOWS AIRMASS WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS SUN MORNING.

FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT MAY
AFFECT THE AREA ALONG WITH ANOTHER FNT. THUS COULD SEE ANOTHER CHC
OF PCPN MAINLY SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. ON TUE NWLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. THE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND
FNT AFFECTING NRN CO BRINGING ANOTHER CHC OF PCPN WHILE THE ECMWF
DOES NOT. FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP IN LOW POPS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 936 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT THE DENVER AIRPORTS THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE SURFACE LOW MOVES...A
PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE BEING AT KAPA. MAY BE SOME GUST TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS THIS
EVENING AS A FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 22Z AND 03Z...WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. CEILINGS WILL FALL AFTER 00Z AS THE
AIRMASS MOISTENS. AFTER 06Z...CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW 3000
FEET. SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 06ZZ...THOUGH ANY SNOWFALL SHOULD
BE SHORT LIVED.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 441 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE REGION AND SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY. WARM
ENOUGH TEMPERATURES AND LOW ENOUGH DEW POINTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
WHICH MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WILL
ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONE 47 TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT OF
DANGEROUS FIRE BEHAVIOR FOR ANOTHER DAY. THE REMAINDER OF
NORTHEAST COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO BE SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...SO FIRE DANGERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
HIGH.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ247.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR COZ033>036.

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...MEIER
FIRE WEATHER...DANKERS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

951 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT, THEN
SHIFT OFFSHORE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST, THEN
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES DURING SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
SCHEDULED TO BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY, THEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT
AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FOR LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

9:30 AM UPDATE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WITH
CONTINUED DRY AIR ADVECTION. THIS WILL RESULT IN ONLY SOME HIGH
CIRRUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ACROSS THE REGION.
SOUNDINGS OFF OF THE RAP AND HRRR INDICATE SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND
25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF DAY AS WELL, SO
INCREASED WIND GUSTS A BIT WITH THIS UPDATE. TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED WITH THIS UPDATE. WITH THE DRY AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUED TO GO CLOSER TO THE MET BUT EVEN THAT IS
LIKELY A HIGH WITH THE DEWPOINTS, THESE WERE LOWERED SLIGHTLY
AGAIN. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN/CENTRAL NJ
ALONG WITH EASTERN PA FOR RH VALUES AROUND 20%, LOW FINE FUEL
MOISTURE AND NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. PLEASE SEE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION OF AFD FOR MORE.

630 AM UPDATE...MAIN CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE WERE FOR DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES. DEW POINTS HAVE FALLEN A BIT FASTER THAN EXPECTED
WITH TEENS AND 20S ALREADY OVER THE POCONOS AND NW NJ. UNDERCUT
DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY THROUGH OUT THE DAY, BUT WILL WAIT UNTIL
UPSTREAM 12Z SOUNDINGS COME IN BEFORE MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT, AND ASSOCIATED
LOW, WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE AWAY FROM THE REGION. IN IT`S WAKE, A
COOL AND VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN OVER THE REGION. SEE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR A DISCUSSION OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
DESPITE THE COOLER AIR MASS, TEMPERATURES SHOULD ACTUALLY BE
PRETTY CLOSE, IF NOT A BIT ABOVE, NORMAL VALUES TODAY. THE UPPER
LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST NORTHEAST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, LEADING TO PERSISTENT THICK CIRRUS CLOUDS,
SO WHILE IT WON`T BE COMPLETELY SUNNY, IT SHOULD STILL BE A NICE
DAY.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
500 MB SHORT WAVE RIDGE SLIDES OVER THE REGION, AS THE SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS CLOSER. ADDITIONALLY, THE 250MB LEVEL JET SLIDES FURTHER OFF
SHORE, ALL OF THIS WILL COMBINE FOR CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT, AND WITH THE RELATIVELY LOW DEW POINT TEMPERATURES,
SHOULD SEE CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS A RESULT, EXPECT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER, DO NOT
EXPECT FROST ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN LOCATIONS WHERE THE GROWING
SEASON HAS ALREADY STARTED (IN THESE AREAS EXPECT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER 40S).

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN INITIAL RIDGE IN THE EAST THAT
TRANSITIONS TO SOME TROUGHING. AS THIS OCCURS, A CLOSED LOW ACROSS
THE WEST DROPS EAST-SOUTHEAST EVENTUALLY EJECTING ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THIS FEATURE BUILDS SOME RIDGING DOWNSTREAM, HOWEVER IT ALSO FORCES
SOME AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR A PORTION
OF THE WEEKEND. THE CLOSED LOW MAY THEN GET ABSORBED INTO A LARGE
SCALE TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST AS IT UNDERGOES AMPLIFICATION EASTWARD
EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRIOR TO THIS OCCURRING, A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY AND THEN TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD. THE DETAILS WITHIN THIS SETUP IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE
AS THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS HAVING TROUBLE HANDLING THE SPLIT FLOW. THE
INTERACTION OF THE EJECTING CLOSED LOW AND THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE DOWNSTREAM
WEATHER. THIS IS MOST NOTED FOR OUR AREA DURING THE WEEKEND AND
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE LOWER CONFIDENCE, WE USED A
MODEL BLEND WITH CONTINUITY FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN WENT
WITH MOSTLY THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE /BLEND OF THE MEANS SATURDAY, THEN
MOSTLY A NAEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND THEREAFTER/. SOME
ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEM MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH
OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO
OUR EAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW THAT WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE ADVECTION
TO INCREASE. IT APPEARS THAT A PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST AS DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES SOUTHWESTWARD
FOR A TIME. AS A RESULT, LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR OR
ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THERE MAY BE A CONDUIT OF MOISTURE
PULLED NORTHWESTWARD FROM THIS SURFACE LOW AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD. OTHERWISE, AN INCOMING COLD FRONT SHOULD ALSO HAVE
SOME SHOWERS WITH IT. OVERALL, MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD BE DRY
WITH ANY SHOWERS TENDING TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THIS IS WHEN THE POPS INCREASE.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...IT MAY START OUT RATHER UNSETTLED FRIDAY
AS MOISTURE GETS PULLED NORTHWARD FROM LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN TRACK FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
COAST LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
SHOULD ARRIVE DURING SATURDAY. THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE
AMOUNT OF SHOWERS FRIDAY AS IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH INTERACTION
THE SURFACE LOW TO OUR SOUTH HAS WITH ENERGY SLIDING BY FARTHER TO
THE NORTH. AS A RESULT, WE KEPT POPS BELOW LIKELY AND WENT WITH
SCATTERED WORDING FOR NOW. THE SECONDARY FRONT ON SATURDAY MAY NOT
HAVE MUCH MOISTURE LEFT TO WORK WITH, THEREFORE WE KEPT POPS ON THE
LOWER SIDE. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE AIRMASS MODERATES PRIOR TO THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH MANY AREAS GETTING TO AROUND 70 DEGREES
DURING THE DAY.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SHOULD
BUILD IN BRIEFLY SUNDAY. AS ENERGY EJECTS EASTWARD FROM A CLOSED LOW
AND ALSO FROM THE MIDWEST, A COMPLEX SYSTEM MAY EVOLVE EASTWARD WITH
TIME. WE KEPT SUNDAY DURING THE DAY DRY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE, THEN WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINS TO OVERTAKE THE
AREA AT NIGHT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS TO ARRIVE, ALTHOUGH
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MORE UNSETTLED TIME FRAME MAY BE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SPLIT FLOW AS IT
MAY TURN INTO AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EAST. AS OF
NOW, THE HIGHEST POPS ARE FOR MONDAY HOWEVER THIS WILL PROBABLY
CHANGE. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS, WE DID NOT GO ANY
HIGHER THAN HIGH CHC POPS. SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESULT,
ESPECIALLY IF THE RAIN IS MORE WIDESPREAD.

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY LINGERING
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY THROUGH 00Z. NORTHERLY
WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST NEAR 20 KT THROUGH 21Z, BUT OTHERWISE
WINDS SHOULD BE NEAR OR BELOW 10KT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO EAST NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR THURSDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS,
THEN CONDITIONS TENDING TO LOWER TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. OUR CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOWER SIDE
WITH THE TIMING AND HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH DURING SATURDAY, HOWEVER THIS MAY HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH IT.

SUNDAY...OVERALL VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILD IN.

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. WINDS AND SEAS HAVE
DROPPED BELOW CRITERIA. A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY ON THE COASTAL WATERS, BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THE FLOW OVERALL IS FORECAST TO BE
LIGHT ENOUGH.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING SATURDAY
THEN HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES BRIEFLY FOR SUNDAY. THE WINDS APPEAR TO
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE SEAS COULD NEAR 5 FEET
FOR A TIME ON THE OCEAN MAINLY IF THE NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF HIGH
PRESSURE LASTS LONG ENOUGH AND IS A BIT STRONGER.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ALMOST ALL OF THE REGION (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW COASTAL
LOCATIONS) WILL SEE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR OR BELOW
20 PERCENT. MUCH OF DELMARVA AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ HAD RAIN TOTALS
NEAR OR ABOVE 1 INCH YESTERDAY, LEADING TO HIGHER FUEL MOISTURES.
FOR THE REST OF THE REGION HOWEVER, THE LIGHT RAIN YESTERDAY DID
NOT HAVE MADE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN NJ AND
EASTERN PA ON FUEL MOISTURE AND DRYING OF THE FUEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TODAY.

AS FOR WINDS, GUSTS NEAR 20 KT ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER, THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT, AND THUS THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MORNING BUT MAY LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WE HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR EASTERN PA,
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NJ UNTIL 7 PM DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LOW
MOISTURE IN FINE FUELS, LOW RH 20% OR LOWER AND WIND GUSTS AROUND
25 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

FOR THURSDAY, THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO
25-35 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY FOR NEW JERSEY /AWAY FROM THE
COAST/ AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, HOWEVER THE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BE 15 MPH OR LESS.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-
060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
007>010-012>015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...GAINES/JOHNSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

1104 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN INVERTED TROUGH LYING THROUGH EASTERN
KENTUCKY FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. ON RADAR...SHOWERS...MAINLY LIGHT...CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. CLOUDS COVER THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES OFF TO A SLOW START. CURRENTLY...WITH EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S NORTH AND NEAR 60 DEGREES IN THE FAR SOUTH. DEWPOINTS VARY
FROM THE LOW 40S IN THE FAR NORTH TO MID AND UPPER 50S IN THE FAR
SOUTH. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE RAIN
LINGERS MORE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE CWA THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON THAN WE HAD INITIALLY REPRESENTED IN THE GRIDS.
ACCORDINGLY...HAVE TWEAKED THE POP AND WEATHER GRIDS TO REFLECT
THIS CHANGE...ALSO KEEPING THE SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A THUNDERSTORM
THIS AFTERNOON. FINALLY...SLOWED THE RISE OF TEMPERATURES THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND PCPN. THESE UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. AN UPDATED SET OF ZONE WILL
BE ISSUED SHORTLY...AS WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

RAIN CONTINUES TO PROGRESS UP THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY AND HAVE
INCREASED POPS FURTHER OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. STILL A LITTLE
UNSURE HOW FAR TO THE NORTH AND WEST THE RAIN WILL GET CONSIDERING
DRIER AIR IN PLACE BUT THE LATEST HRRR BRINGS THE RAIN AS FAR WEST
AS JACKSON AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SCOOT BY TO OUR
SOUTH TODAY BUT NOT BEFORE PUSHING SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
NORTHWARD INTO MAINLY SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. AS THIS
BATCH OF SHOWERS EXITS...MODELS INDICATE SOME BREAKS MAY DEVELOP
IN THE CLOUDS AND THE ATMOSPHERE MAY DESTABILIZE A BIT OVER OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THIS IN MIND...ADDED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS
PARKWAY.

THE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BACK FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING TO A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
THIS DOWNSLOPING FLOW...WHILE NOT STRONG...SHOULD HELP LESSEN RAIN
CHANCES...ALTHOUGH STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO THROUGH
THE NIGHT. MODELS THEN INDICATE THAT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY BRINGING ANOTHER
UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY WILL BE
HIGHEST OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AND LOWEST ALONG THE WV/VA
BORDERS DUE TO THE CONTINUING SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. A
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK EXCESSIVE...SO DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO
CAUSE ANY WORSENING OF THE CURRENT FLOODING OR CREATE ANY NEW
FLOOD PROBLEMS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN
ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE. MAIN FEATURE OF THIS PERIOD
WILL LIE WITH A CLOSED LOW PARKED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
DURING THIS PERIOD IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
RANGE...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SPLIT BETWEEN A NORTHERN STREAM
AND SOUTHERN...A SERIES OF WAVES EJECT INTO THE LOWER AND MID MS
VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THE TN VALLEY. DURING THIS TIME AS
WELL...ALONG THE NORTHERN STREAM...A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ARE
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY REGION. THIS LOOKS TO
BE PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS FOR SUSTAINED
RAINFALL THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE THE SUPPORT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A BREAK FRIDAY EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE ALONG THE SOUTHERN STREAM EJECTS INTO THE
LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY. WITH THIS...THE MENTIONED CLOSED LOW
EJECTS EASTWARD AS WELL. THIS COMBINED WITH ANOTHER STRONGER
SHORTWAVE ALONG THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR AMPLE PRECIP FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT RANGE AS A DEEP SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS IN THE
PLAINS AND BEGINS TO MOVE EAST. THE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
RANGE OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUITE WITH MID AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING IN.

LOOKING AT THE CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO...THEY SEEM
TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT...THOUGH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES WITH THE
STRONGER WAVE IN THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY. THE AGREEMENT MADE IT SEEM
THAT A SUPER BLEND SOLUTION MAY BE SUITABLE BUT THE OBVIOUS NEED
TO KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT DRY INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THIS WAS SHOWN
IN THE GFS AND EURO...WAS LEFT OUT AND THE BLEND HAD CHANCE POPS.
THIS WAS COLLABORATED WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. IN ADDITION...DUE
TO THE DISTANCE IN THE EXTENDED...THE SUPER BLEND WAS SUITABLE BUT
THE POPS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY COULD EASILY BE PUSHED TO
CATEGORICAL BASED UPON THE CONSISTENCY OF THE RUNS AND WHAT THE
MODELS ARE ADVERTISING DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...A WEAK REMNANT BOUNDARY STRETCHING INTO
KENTUCKY WITH THE MENTIONED DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA BUT NO REAL FORCING OR
STRONG INSTABILITY FOR A CONCERN OF AN ORGANIZED AREA OF RAINFALL
DURING THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME AND HAVE KEPT
POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE OR MINIMAL. WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP
A BREAK IN THE PRECIP OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT AND SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE MENTIONED UPPER LOW MOVES
EAST INTO THE PLAINS...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS
AND A SURGE OF MOISTURE BEHIND A STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS BY SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LOOKS TO BE A STRONG SURGE OR MOISTURE WITH PWATS
REACHING 1.50 IN SOME LOCATIONS ALONG WITH AN ELEMENT THAT HAS NOT
BEEN NOTICEABLY PRESENT FROM THE LAST EVENT...A SIZABLE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY. BASED ON THE CONTINUING WET PATTERN...THE MAIN
CONCERN HERE WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL BUT THE AMOUNT OF DYNAMICS AND
INSTABILITY RAISE A SEVERE WEATHER CONCERN HERE. A PATTERN SUCH AS
THIS CAN CHANGE RAPIDLY AS WELL AND AS SUCH SOME UNCERTAINTIES ARE
PRESENT. FOR NOW...WILL MENTION THE FLOOD THREAT IN THE HWO.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL RIDE NORTHEAST OUT OF TENNESSEE
INTO MUCH OF SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AFFECTING SME...LOZ...JKL AND SJS
THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY AT OR DROP TO IFR AS THE RAIN
FALLS. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO EXIT TO OUR EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT TO A MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT AND THIS DRIER...DOWNSLOPING FLOW
WILL HELP TO SCOUR OUT THE LOWER CEILINGS. AS SUCH...EXPECT A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...ABE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

640 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...ABE
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...ABE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

1113 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

FRIDAY LOOKS REALLY NICE. BUMPED HIGHS UP FOR MOST LOCATIONS TO 70.
A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD KEEP LAKESHORE
AREAS FROM HOLLAND TO THE NORTH SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 732 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. EAST WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS
MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS THEN DECREASE TO AOB 10
KNOTS BY THIS EVENING.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1104 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ACT TO KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS TO A MINIMUM. GUSTS
OVER 20 KNOTS LIKELY. WINDS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AS WE
LOSE THE MIXING. WINDS WILL THEN LARGELY REMAIN UNDER 20 KNOTS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...HOVING
SHORT TERM...HOVING
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
FIRE WEATHER...HOVING
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...MJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

732 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

FRIDAY LOOKS REALLY NICE. BUMPED HIGHS UP FOR MOST LOCATIONS TO 70.
A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD KEEP LAKESHORE
AREAS FROM HOLLAND TO THE NORTH SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 732 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. EAST WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS
MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS THEN DECREASE TO AOB 10
KNOTS BY THIS EVENING.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO MARINERS OUTSIDE OF A LOW RISK FOR A
THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...HOVING
SHORT TERM...HOVING
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
FIRE WEATHER...HOVING
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...MJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON MS

1045 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY LATE THIS AM ACROSS MUCH OF THE
ARKLAMISS WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY AROUND 70...WITH HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 80. LATEST HRRR INDICATES BEST
COVERAGE OF SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
E/SE...WHICH IS ON TRACK WITH THE CURRENT FCST. THE ONLY CHANGE TO
THE CURRENT FCST WAS TO THE HOURLY TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST
TENDS. /27/

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEPER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW WIND
SPEEDS TO CREEP UP SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. SPEEDS OF
5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON...ESPECIALLY AROUND GLH/GWO. SOME TSRA
WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT NO MORE THAN VICINITY EXPECTED. HBG
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING SOME TSRA THIS AFTERNOON.
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ONCE AGAIN AFTER 16/06Z.
VSBYS WILL MOSTLY STAY IN THE MVFR CATEGORY...BUT LIFR VSBYS IN
FOG ARE MORE PROBABLE OVER HBG HEADING TOWARD 16/12Z./26/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...EVENING SHOWERS HAVE
MOVED NORTH OF THE REGION AND ONCE AGAIN A LULL IN THE RAIN ACTIVITY
IS ONGOING OVERNIGHT. A STALLED FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION
GENERALLY NEAR THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS AND
SOME STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT IT APPEARS THAT CONVECTION WILL
TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO GET GOING AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN HOW
MUCH COVERAGE THERE WILL BE. UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS FEW
MORNINGS...CONVECTION IS NOT NOTED ON RADAR MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT QPF LIKELY WONT OCCUR UNTIL
CLOSER TO THE AFTERNOON AND EVEN THE HI-RES MODELS ARE VERY SPARSE
WITH THE RAIN THROUGH THE WHOLE DAY...WITH MORE OCCURRING IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE WEAK
DISTURBANCE/LOW PRESSURE MOVING GENERALLY ALONG THE STALLED FRONT TO
THE NORTHEAST. I DIDNT GO AS HIGH WITH POPS AS PREVIOUS DAYS GIVEN
SOME INDICATION PER HI-RES GUIDANCE THAT COVERAGE MAY NOT BE AS GREAT
TODAY. THAT AND SOME DRIER AIR APPEARS TO BE IN PLACE THIS MORNING.
THIS IS NOTED BY LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS...DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE
REGION FROM ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND
MODEL PROGGED PW VALUES LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES. IT APPEARS THAT THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN/STORMS WILL BE IN THE EAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD GET ON THE STRONG TO MAYBE
MARGINALLY SEVERE SIDE. LATER IN THE DAY...AS MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO COOL...VERTICAL TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 26-28C.
WHILE WIND SHEAR ISNT TOO STRONG...IT COULD BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH(DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30KTS) TO PRODUCE A FEW STRONG STORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL BEING THE MAIN CONCERNS. I
STILL HAVE A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR GIVEN INTRUDING DRIER AIR AND THUS WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW IN
MENTIONING ANY OF THIS IN THE HWO/GRAPHICS. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE ALL
WEEK...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD BRING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. WILL KEEP LIMITED POTENTIAL
IN THE HWO FOR TODAY. AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS THE NORTHEAST...RAIN
SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS WELL BY MIDNIGHT BUT SOME SMALL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT HIGHER ON THURSDAY AS PW VALUES RETURN TO
NEAR 1.8 INCHES. THIS...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK
DISTURBANCES...WILL BRING BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
THE REGION ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MY CWA. /28/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UNSETTLED WET PATTERN
WITH THE ACTIVE SOUTHERN JETSTREAM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE UPPER JET WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN PROVIDING PERIODS OF
LIFT AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STREAM.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE ISSUES WITH TRACKING THE HIGHEST RAINFALL
POTENTIAL AREAS WITH MESO-SCALE FEATURES INVOLVED. THUS TIMING AND
DETAILS REMAIN TOUGH TO NAIL DOWN THROUGH THE UNSETTLED PERIOD.
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES...WHICH WILL BRING SOME RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. AN ADDITIONAL
1-3 INCHES APPEARS POSSIBLE FRI WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. A TREND THAT DOES SEEM A BIT MORE CLEAR IS THAT THE S
2/3RDS OF THE CWA HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL TO SEE THE HIGHER RAIN
TOTALS. WPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTH
ON FRIDAY.

FOR THE SUN-WED PERIODS...LOOK FOR DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TO BE
THE TREND AS SOME GUIDANCE PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM FINALLY PHASES./17/CE/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 80 64 80 64 / 50 36 56 58
MERIDIAN 79 64 78 64 / 52 49 56 57
VICKSBURG 80 62 81 65 / 29 27 56 58
HATTIESBURG 80 66 79 65 / 56 38 66 57
NATCHEZ 79 63 79 65 / 29 29 66 57
GREENVILLE 77 60 79 65 / 31 27 21 59
GREENWOOD 79 62 81 64 / 42 50 22 52

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SPRINGFIELD MO

641 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 323 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

Some fog potential is there for tonight with residual low level
moisture and a possible clearing sky late. Something for the next
shift to take a closer look at.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

Cooler than normal temperatures are then expected Monday and
Tuesday as a Canadian air mass settles in over the Midwest.

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 635 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

Showers will move across the regions aerodromes through much of
today as a shortwave moves across the region. The increased lift
and moisture will allow for MVFR ceilings and visibilities through
this evening, especially where showers occur. The shortwave will
move east of the region for the overnight hours with lingering
MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities though the showers will
shift east along with the shortwave. Will need to monitor for fog
development for early Thursday morning, especially if cloud cover
clears off as projected by some of the model guidance.

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Hatch

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS BILLINGS MT

957 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...

LARGE UPPER LOW MOVING OUT OF UTAH INTO COLORADO CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA AND
NORTHERN WYOMING. RADAR SHOWING BULK OF WET SNOW ACROSS
MUSSELSHELL...YELLOWSTONE...AND BIG HORN COUNTIES...AS WELL AS THE
BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW
HAS DECREASED QUITE A BIT FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AND EVEN WITH SOME
HEAVIER BURSTS...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THIS TIME OF YEAR ESPECIALLY ON ROAD SURFACES. AS A
RESULT...I DID CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
YELLOWSTONE...STILLWATER AND EASTERN CARBON COUNTIES. WEB CAMS
SHOWING A BIT HEAVIER SNOW ACROSS THE RED LODGE AREA SO WILL KEEP
THE ADVISORY GOING FOR THE FOOTHILLS INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST TODAY...THE PRECIP WILL
ALSO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY AND OUR SOUTHEAST
ZONES. AS A MATTER OF FACT...SNOW HAS JUST BEGUN AT SHERIDAN WITH
2 MILES VISIBILITY ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING NEAR 40 MPH.
OTHER CHANGES WERE TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE BILLINGS
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS PRECIP CONTINUING
WELL INTO THIS AFTERNOON. ALL UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. HOOLEY

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AND WARMER THE AS SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
PRECIPITATION TODAY SINKS SOUTH AND A WEST TO EAST RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES INTO MONTANA. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER LOW SHIFTS E THROUGH S
CANADA. THERE WERE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF SHORTWAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THROUGH THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THERE WAS AGREEMENT IN A DRIER PERIOD SUN THROUGH MON SO
HAVE GONE WITH LOW POPS OR POPS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. KEPT
MON NIGHT MOSTLY DRY...EVEN THROUGH THE GFS TRIED TO BRING A COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA. CONTINUED THE IDEA OF LOW POPS THROUGH TUE
NIGHT USING A MODEL BLEND. BOTH MODELS HAD A BACKDOOR FRONT
MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR WED WITH VARYING QPF AMOUNTS. AGAIN USED
A MODEL BLEND FOR POPS.

.AVIATION...

EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF
SITES...TRANSITIONING TO A MIX FROM BILLINGS EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
LOCALIZED LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT
CONDITIONS BE BEGIN IMPROVING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FROM WEST
TO EAST. REIMER

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT
FOR ZONE 38.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONES 56-66.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT
FOR ZONES 98-99.

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

639 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS COME LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGS INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
LOOKING TO THE DAYTIME HOURS...CURRENTLY HAVE DRY/VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF LOWER
LEVEL CLOUDS PUSHING N/NW INTO THE AREA...BUT UPSTREAM OBS SHOW
VFR CEILINGS. SERLY WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE BREEZY
SIDE...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 30
MPH POSSIBLE. MODELS/GUIDANCE SUGGEST LOWERING CEILINGS ALONG WITH
THE PRECIP...AND HAVE IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. THERE IS SOME
DATA THAT SUGGESTS IT COULD BE LOWER THAN THAT...BUT OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN THE CEILINGS AS WELL AS THE EVOLUTION OF PRECIP IS
LOW ENOUGH TO NOT GO ANY LOWER THAN 1K FT. ALSO BECAUSE OF
UNCERTAINTY...HAVE PRECIP MENTION GOING AS VCTS.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...ADP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

1058 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC
TODAY AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM WEDNESDAY...

A COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...AN APPROACHING 850 MB
TROUGH...AND THE SOUTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS
LEAD TO A MIX OF FORCING MECHANISMS THAT HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FALLING ACROSS AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE. FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST...DEWPOINTS ARE
CONSIDERABLY LOWER AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN
FROM THE NORTH. COUPLE THAT WITH HIGHER CLOUD BASES AND
PRECIPITATION TRYING TO MOVE EASTWARD IS RUNNING INTO A LOT OF
RESISTANCE EAST OF ROUTE 1. RELATIVE HUMIDITY CROSS SECTIONS FROM
THE HRRR HAVE SHOWN THE TEMPORARY LIFTING OF THE CLOUD BASES BUT
ALSO DEPICT A SECONDARY SURGE OF MOISTURE THAT LOWERS CLOUD BASES
AND INCREASES CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. A
LOOK AT THE CONVECTING ALLOWING MODELS CONFIRMS THIS AS THEY HOLD
OFF PRECIPITATION THROUGH 18Z BUT THEN BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE
ENTIRE AREA LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE TRICKY TODAY BUT EXPECT LOWEST TEMPS IN THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT WHERE HIGHS HAVE MOST LIKELY ALREADY BEEN ACHIEVED. TO THE
EAST...THERE WILL BE SOME RISE IN TEMPERATURES WITH THE RELATIVELY
THIN CLOUDINESS. EXPECT HIGHS THERE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TONIGHT...00Z NAM HITTING THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PRETTY
HARD...INDICATING A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE RAIN OVER THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT. THIS SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER AS OTHER MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST RAIN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. (THIS MAKES SENSE AS WEAK SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE SHOULD CURTAIL THE RAIN
COVERAGE). BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS SOME DEGREE OF CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE 850MB TROUGH ALIGNED WEST-TO-EAST IN VICINITY THE NC/SC
BORDER. THUS WILL DEPICT A DECREASING POP TREND LATE THIS EVENING-
OVERNIGHT THOUGH MAINTAIN A DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY. MIN
TEMPS COOLER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS COOL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CHILLY HIGH TO THE NORTH BECOMES ESTABLISHED. MIN TEMPS MID-UPPER
40S NORTH TO NEAR 50 SOUTH.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM WEDNESDAY...

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE WANES A BIT.
PARENT HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND AND WEAKENS ITS INFLUENCE
OVER CENTRAL NC. LACK OF A SCOURING MECHANISM SUGGEST THAT THE
RESIDUAL CAD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. NOT NOTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ANY MECHANISM OF SUFFICIENT STRENGTH TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD
RAIN THOUGH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SFC LOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE SE U.S. COAST AND DRIFT
NEWD LATE THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT. NAM STRONGER/MORE INLAND WITH
THIS FEATURE WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A MUCH WEAKER VERSION MORE
OFFSHORE. FOR NOW WILL HAVE POPS NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE AND MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR NORTH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING....MAINTAINING A CHANCE POP
OVERNIGHT (THOUGH FEEL THAT THIS MAY BE A WORSE CASE SCENARIO; MAY
END UP HAVING MORE DRIZZLE THAN LIGHT RAIN).

HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS VARYING FROM THE MID
50S NW TO THE MID 60S FAR SE. LOW TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT NEAR 50 FAR
WEST-NW TO THE MID 50S EAST.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: S/W RIDING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME... WITH THE LINGERING COLD
AIR DAMMING AIR MASS SLOWLY MIXING OUT AS THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE
NORTH MOVES WELL OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST ON FRIDAY. BOTH THE
GFS AND NAM SHOW DRIER AIR ALOFT WORKING INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND
LINGERING THROUGH A GOOD PART OF SATURDAY. THUS... WILL CONTINUE THE
TREND OF THE PAST FEW FORECASTS AND LOWER POPS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. WILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS A
WEAK TRIALING COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WASHES OUT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE NOW EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT... ALLOWING FOR CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN A WEST TO
EAST FASHION. FOR NOW WILL LIMIT ANY CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY TO THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA... WITH CHANCES INCREASING ON SATURDAY
NIGHT.

WRT TO HIGH AND LOW TEMPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME... GIVEN WE SHOULD
SEE SOME SUN DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SKIES PARTLY SUNNY AT TIMES...
THINK HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S... WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 70S (PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS TOUCHING THE 80 DEGREE MARK
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/EAST). LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE EXTENDED. THE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW AFFECTING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND FOUR CORNERS REGION
TODAY SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK...
BEFORE BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD AND PERHAPS NORTHWARD AS AN
AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY. REGARDLESS IF THESE TWO FEATURES COMPLETELY PHASE WE
SHOULD SEE A MORE AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER FLOW PATTERN DEVELOP ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY BY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL HELP INCREASE SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME
STORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WE COULD SEE SOME SORT OF DAMMING
REFLECTION EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY
(WITH A POSSIBLE CAD BOUNDARY DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL NC).
HOWEVER... STILL A LITTLE TO EARLY TO TELL HOW MUCH LINGERING DRY
AIR WE WILL HAVE AT THE SURFACE/LOW LEVELS WHEN PRECIP SPREADS BACK
INTO THE AREA.

THE LEAD DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY
MONDAY MORNING... WITH THE LEAD SURFACE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY... WITH A RETURN
TO DRY WEATHER BY AT LEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WRT TO TEMPS... WILL TREND TEMPS COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH THE EXPECTED
PRECIP... AND TEMPS MAY EVEN BE MUCH COOLER ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT.
FOR NOW WIL THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD AFTER 14Z WHEN CEILINGS MAY
BRIEFLY LIFT IN TO THE MVFR RANGE BEFORE ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN
OVERSPREADS CENTRAL NC FROM THE WEST BY MID DAY-EARLY
AFTERNOON....LOWERING CEILINGS BACK INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. THIS AREA
OF RAIN SHOULD EXIT THE REGION LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
CEILINGS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY THOUGH EXPECT
MVFR/LOW END VFR CEILINGS. L GO CLOSE TO WPC... WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS EXPECTED MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO UPPER
70S... BEFORE A CATEGORY OR TWO COOLER ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL GENERALLY... WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO NEAR
60 SE.

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 747 AM WEDNESDAY...

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SFC COLD FRONT. THIS WILL SET UP A COLD AIR
DAMMING REGIME AS MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED IN THE LOWER LAYERS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CEILINGS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. AN AREA OF RAIN IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC THROUGH 15Z. THIS RAIN WILL
AID TO MAINTAIN SATURATION IN THE LOWER LEVELS...LIKELY CAUSING THE
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST WELL INTO TEH AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL DEPART OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD INITIATE A DECREASE IN RAIN COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. AREAS OF RAIN MAY PERSIST WELL INTO THE
EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTH. CEILINGS MAY LIFT TO THE LOW END VFR
CATEGORY MOST LOCATIONS LATE THIS EVENING. MVFR/LOW END VFR
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS
REMAINS VERY MOIST.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED ACROSS CENTRAL NC FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. A RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE COUPLED A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL CAUSES CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ALONG
WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS.

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

651 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 550 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 252 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT TUESDAY...

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 633 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY DETERIORATE THIS
MORNING AS THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGS ANOTHER SWATH OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IN FROM THE SW. THIS SHOULD HELP PUSH CIGS
BACK DOWN THROUGH MVFR TO IFR IN MANY LOCATIONS BY MID/LATE
MORNING...WITH MVFR VSBYS OR WORSE INCLUDING MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
INTO AT LEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

SQUEEZE PLAY CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND MOISTURE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING AND SHUNTING TO THE SOUTH BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER HOW FAST CIGS IMPROVE A BIT IFFY GIVEN SLOWER EXODUS OF
MOISTURE OFF LATEST MODELS AND EASTERLY FLOW. FOR NOW WILL HOLD
ALL LOCATIONS EXCLUDING KLYH SUB-VFR UNTIL 00Z/8PM WHEN EXPECTING
BETTER DRYING TO TAKE SHAPE BEHIND THE CURRENT WAVE.

MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW FAST THE PRECIP WEDNESDAY EVENING GETS
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH WITH THE NAM QUITE WET INTO THURSDAY WITH
OTHERS SHOWING A BREAK WED NIGHT AND THEN MORE -RA WITH ANOTHER
FEATURE ON THURSDAY. EITHER WAY APPEARS OVERALL SUB-VFR WILL BE
THE RULE WITH ONLY PERIODIC IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLY OCCURRING ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS...AFFECTING THE KLWB-KLYH ROUTE.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

THE WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH CONTINUED
IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS AND OCNL MVFR VSBYS IN -RA/DZ/FOG.

ON FRIDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ONCE THE WEDGE BREAKS.

ON SATURDAY THE FRONT COMES THROUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECTING OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS UNTIL THE FRONT
PASSES.

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL SPREAD BACK ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
RESULTING IN ANOTHER HALF TO ONE INCH OR MORE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. HOWEVER RAINFALL RATES AND FORECASTED QPF
SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOOD PROBLEMS BUT WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED GIVEN DIFFERING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ACROSS THE REGION.
ELSEWHERE TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHTER WITH TOTALS
RANGING FROM A QUARTER/HALF INCH OVER THE SW TO A TENTH TO ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...AMS/JH/MBS
HYDROLOGY...JH/WP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

1003 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT FOR OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY MOVING
EAST OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD STAVE OFF ANY PRECIPITATION
DURING THE DAY TODAY. DEW POINTS WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL HEATING RAMPS UP...BUT THEY
SHOULD NOT FALL QUITE AS FAR AS THEY DID TUESDAY AS RAP BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS INDICATE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING ONLY TO 850MB...NOT QUITE
AS DEEP OF MIXING AS WE SAW TUESDAY. GUSTY EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS
TODAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORE
COMPARED TO FURTHER INLAND...WITH HIGHS NEAR THE LAKE SHORE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
FURTHER INLAND.

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.
GUSTS WILL BE STRONGER FOR MSN AND UES AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD BE TIGHTER FURTHER INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN...ACCORDING
TO HIGH-RES SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE. GUSTS MAY REACH NEAR 20KTS THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MSN AND UES...WHILE ENW AND MKE WILL SEE WEAKER
WINDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOT AS STRONG NEAR THE
LAKESHORE. MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS AND STRATUS CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS BONE DRY TODAY...BUT WE SHOULDN/T MIX OUT THE
DEWPOINTS AS READILY AS WE DID ON TUESDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH HAS
SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST...SO WE/LL GET INTO A BIT MORE OF A RETURN
FLOW...BUT IT/S MOSTLY EASTERLY. STILL...DEWPOINTS WILL BE A BIT
MORE ELEVATED THAN YESTERDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS
THE REGION AS A MID LEVEL TROF MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IT/S A
DECENT SHORT WAVE...BUT GIVEN HOW DRY THE LOWER HALF OF THE TROP
IS...NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. THE ONE POSSIBLE CAVEAT IS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT...TOWARD SUNRISE. THE MODELS SHOW DEEPER
MOISTURE SNEAKING UP ACROSS EASTERN IL INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. A STRAY
SHOWER COULD CLIP THE FAR SOUTHEAST...WORTHY OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER ACROSS KENOSHA/RACINE COUNTIES

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A NOTCH LOWER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN THE STRONGER
EASTERLY FLOW AND THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THAT MEANS
FOLKS NEAR THE LAKE WILL FEEL ESPECIALLY COOL TODAY.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

DRY AIR AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE SOUTHERN
WI THROUGH THU NIGHT. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WILL HAVE SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER IN SOUTHERN WI
DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK ACROSS THE AREA ON THU... SO
EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. INLAND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS MAYBE REACHING 70 IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA WITH SKIES
CLEARING OUT AND LIGHT WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES WILL IN THE 30S WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES ON THE LOW SIDE
ONCE AGAIN... ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS LOW AS TUE AND WED THIS WEEK.

LONG TERM...

FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN WI FRI AFTERNOON
OR MAYBE THE EVENING. THE NAM IS THE ONLY MODEL PRODUCING QPF BUT
OTHER MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES.

OTHERWISE... PLAN ON HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND
60S NEAR THE SHORELINE AHEAD OF THAT SURFACE TROUGH. WINDS WILL BE
FAIRLY LIGHT SO OVERALL IT WILL BE A NICE DAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH AN INCREASING NORTHEAST BREEZE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF DRY AIR WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR SUNSHINE.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT NOW WITH EJECTING THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
PHASING IT WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA AS IT
REACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN WI ON SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THAT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
USHER COLDER AIR INTO SOUTHERN WI. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW 850MB
TEMPS DROPPING BELOW 0C BY MID WEEK.

SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW MAY PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER THE AREA. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH INCREASING MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE STABLE OUT OF THE EAST AND A BIT
BREEZY/GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON...13-20KTS.

FIRE WEATHER...

ANOTHER VERY DRY DAY EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. DEWPOINTS
WILL LIKELY MIX OUT INTO THE LOWER 20S...POSSIBLY UPPER TEENS. AN
EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS ELEVATED FOR THOSE COUNTIES
BORDERING LAKE MICHIGAN. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE MIXED OUT AREAS
WILL LIKELY DROP TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT. WE SHOULDN/T BE QUITE AS DRY
AS YESTERDAY DUE TO MORE MOISTURE WORKING INTO THE AREA DUE TO A
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF A RETREATING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
THOSE EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE PUSHING 15 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

AFTER COORDINATION WITH THE WI DNR WE WILL BE UPGRADING THE FIRE
WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY...WE/LL BE ADDING GREEN LAKE AND DANE COUNTIES.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ046-047-056-
057-062-063-067.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...JTS
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MRC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

1000 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A NOTCH LOWER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN THE STRONGER
EASTERLY FLOW AND THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THAT MEANS
FOLKS NEAR THE LAKE WILL FEEL ESPECIALLY COOL TODAY.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

LONG TERM...

FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

OTHERWISE... PLAN ON HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND
60S NEAR THE SHORELINE AHEAD OF THAT SURFACE TROUGH. WINDS WILL BE
FAIRLY LIGHT SO OVERALL IT WILL BE A NICE DAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH AN INCREASING NORTHEAST BREEZE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF DRY AIR WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR SUNSHINE.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH INCREASING MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE STABLE OUT OF THE EAST AND A BIT
BREEZY/GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON...13-20KTS.

FIRE WEATHER...

AFTER COORDINATION WITH THE WI DNR WE WILL BE UPGRADING THE FIRE
WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY...WE/LL BE ADDING GREEN LAKE AND DANE COUNTIES.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
WIZ046-047-056-057-062-063-067.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...JTS
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MRC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

600 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...GOOD FLYING WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT INTO
THURSDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
WIZ030-035>037-045.
&&

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......MPC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

1241 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TODAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTIUATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN DROPPING ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION THIS MORNING AND RUNNING QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN WHAT THE
SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. IN THE NEAR TERM CONTINUED TO LEAN
CLOSER TO THE MET GUIDANCE BUT EVEN THIS IS TO HIGH, LOWERED
DEWPOINTS ON THE 12:30PM UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DRY AIRMASS.
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY, TEMPERATURES HAVE REPSONDED
NICELY ACROSS THE REGION SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH THE
UPDATE OTHERWISE MOST OF US SHOULD SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60`S.
THE MAIN WEATHER PLAYER WILL BE THE STRONG NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS
AROUND 25 MPH. HRRR AND RAP SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WIND
GUSTS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND DID RAISE THEM A BIT
WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, EXIST AS WELL WITH
A RED FLAG WARNING UP FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NJ ALONG WITH
EASTERN PA, PLEASE SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE.

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY LINGERING
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST
AT MOST LOCATIONS FROM 18-23 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. THE GUSTS WILL
TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO
EAST NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT UNDER 10 KNOTS THEN TO
EASTERLY IN THE MORNING FROM 8-10 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT
SOUTHEASTERLY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... CONDITIONS TENDING TO LOWER TO
MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. OUR
CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOWER SIDE WITH THE TIMING AND HOW MUCH RAIN
OCCURS. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING SATURDAY,
HOWEVER THIS MAY HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH IT.

SUNDAY...OVERALL VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILD IN.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THE FLOW OVERALL IS FORECAST TO BE
LIGHT ENOUGH.

AS FOR WINDS, GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER, THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT, AND THUS THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MORNING BUT WILL LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WE HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR EASTERN PA,
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NJ UNTIL 7 PM DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LOW
MOISTURE IN FINE FUELS, LOW RH 20% OR LOWER AND WIND GUSTS AROUND
25 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GAINES/GORSE/JOHNSON
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...GAINES/JOHNSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON SC

434 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY ADVANCE SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP
AND STRENGTHEN INLAND ON THURSDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS
OFF THE COAST. THE LOW WILL PUSH AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS INLAND THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN MID WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. DEEP
MOISTURE PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS BETWEEN 1.4 TO 1.8 INCHES
AND SFC DEWPTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S RESIDE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP WILL CONTINUE
TO OCCUR AS A WEAK MID LVL WAVE SHIFTS OVER THE INTO EARLY
EVENING HOURS...WITH THE NSSL WRF AND HRRR INDICATING SHOWER
AND/OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SLOWLY PROGRESSING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE AREA INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

LATEST RADAR SHOWS INTENSIFICATION OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A BROKEN LINE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS CURRENTLY SHIFTING OVER
INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
SBCAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG ALONG WITH WEAK SHEAR AND POOR LAPSE
RATES...INDICATE MAINLY PULSE/MULTI-CELL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES. A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING. AFTER
SUNSET...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW AS MOST INSTABILITY
DECREASES DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA OVERNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM BEFORE MIDNIGHT. MOST PRECIP ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN
SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE. TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
LOWS RANGING IN THE MID 50S INLAND TO LOW/MID 60S IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MORNING WILL BEGIN WITH A WELL
DEFINED INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND A SHARPENING COASTAL
TROUGH/LOW JUST OFFSHORE. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW SLOWLY MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE MAIN CHANGE IN THIS POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL BE
THE SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER RAIN CHANCES THANKS TO THE PRONOUNCED MID
LEVEL DRYING NOTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS. IN
FACT...MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE COMPLETELY DRY BUT WE HAVE
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE IN MOST PLACES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. REGARDLESS...IT SHOULD BE A MUCH
QUIETER DAY THAN THE LAST FEW. WITHIN THE WEDGE AND OVERCAST
SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S
INLAND RANGING TO UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST AND
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE FORECAST THINKING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY
FEATURE AND WITH MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS OVERALL RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY FALL INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK LESS ACTIVE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS INLAND
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT STARTS TO WRAP UP ACROSS THE MID AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALSO BUILD AND MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE RANGE AND MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED FURTHER IF
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM...INTO THE
MID/UPPER 70S FOR FRIDAY AND THEN LOW 80S FOR SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. ON SUNDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LOW WILL PROGRESS EAST AND SEND A
TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
FRONT. QUIET WEATHER WILL RETURN MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KCHS...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD SHIFT OVER THE TERMINAL
SOMETIME BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z...WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON AND
COULD CAUSE VSBY REDUCTIONS. IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IN STARTING TIME OF EVENT IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE EARLIER THAN 03Z TONIGHT. PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE
GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR BY EARLY
EVENING. LOWER CIGS SHOULD THEN MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL TONIGHT AS
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE TERMINAL. IFR CIGS APPEAR
LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR LEVELS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN THURSDAY NIGHT IN
FOG/STRATUS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND
VFR WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THEREAFTER.

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE
WATERS...CAUSING A SURGE OF WINDS AND SEAS BEHIND IT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. LATEST OBS AND PILOT BOAT REPORTS
INDICATE STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...THUS A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CHS HARBOR UNTIL 11 PM TONIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN SC WATERS
OFF THE CHARLESTON COAST...BUT GIVEN LATEST TRENDS HAVE INITIATED
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AT 8 PM. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE
TONIGHT WITH WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25-30 KTS OFF THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY COAST. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD FROM 2 FT TO 4-6 FT EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF CHARLESTON AFTER MIDNIGHT. GEORGIA WATERS WILL SEE A
MUCH SLOWER PROGRESSION OF BUILDING SEAS AND WINDS SHOULD STAY
BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WILL
BE AT THEIR WORST ON THURSDAY THANKS TO A PINCHED NORTH TO
NORTHEAST GRADIENT BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND A DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOW. WINDS/SEAS WILL SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS THROUGH
THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL BE 15-20 KT
WITH ELEVATED SEAS AS WELL. THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX
THURSDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW
PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. THEN A MORE UNIFORM SOUTHERLY FLOW
REGIME WILL RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS THAT PASS NORTHWEST OF
THE AREA.

RIP CURRENTS...HAVE COME UP WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY BEACHES FOR THURSDAY BASED ON STRONG NORTHEAST TO NORTH-
NORTHEAST WINDS AND CONSIDERABLE WAVE ACTION. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ALONG THE REST OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THOUGH WINDS WILL BE A
BIT WEAKER THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO SO LOW RISK IS IN PLACE
ELSEWHERE.

THE ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS ASTRONOMICAL FACTORS INCREASE.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COMBINATION OF ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES AND LINGERING NORTHEAST
WINDS/SWELL WILL RESULT IN A THREAT FOR SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING
NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING...PERHAPS
EXTENDING INTO THE SATURDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE.

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
AMZ374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR AMZ350.

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...BSH/DPB
MARINE...BSH/DPB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON SC

148 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY ADVANCE SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL STRENGTHEN THURSDAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. THE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST UP THE COAST
FRIDAY...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN MID WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE TRI COUNTY
AREA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE
PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS BETWEEN 1.4 TO 1.8 INCHES AND SFC
DEWPTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S RESIDE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE BULK OF PRECIP
WILL OCCUR AS AN H5 SHORTWAVE SHIFTS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH THE NSSL WRF AND HRRR INDICATING A
LINE OF SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SLOWLY PROGRESSING
WEST TO EAST ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE AREA.

LATEST RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SHIFTING OVER THE MIDLANDS AND TOWARD INLAND COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. EXPECT SOME INTENSIFICATION OF
THIS LINE AS IT ENCOUNTERS LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SEEN SUN TODAY.
SBCAPES NEAR 3000 J/KG ALONG WITH WEAK SHEAR AND POOR LAPSE
RATES...INDICATE MAINLY PULSE/MULTI-CELL THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
AREA...WITH THE GREATER RISK IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND FOR
LOCATIONS WEST OF I-95 IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS LINE...WHERE LFC
AND LCL LEVELS INDICATE INITIATION. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD
BE STRONG...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORM
ENHANCEMENT SHOULD OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY
ENCOUNTERS THE SOUTHWARD MOVING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION
TO DAMAGING WINDS...LOCAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED UP 1-2 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID 80S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND MID/UPPER
70S SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

TONIGHT...THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND MODELS
INDICATE MID LEVEL OMEGA...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALSO REMAIN DECENT
ALONG THE FRONT. INSTABILITY SHOULD TAP OUT EARLY IN THE EVENING
AND WE TRENDED LIKELY POPS TOWARD CHANCE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THE REGION AS A SURFACE
WEDGE STRENGTHENS.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INLAND AND
STRENGTHEN AS A COASTAL TROUGH REMAINS OFFSHORE. DIFFERENCES EXIST
AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THESE FEATURES THROUGH
THE DAY WITH THE NAM LIFTING THE TROUGH NORTHEAST AND EURO/GFS
FAVORING A NEARLY STATIONARY TROUGH. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE
LATTER...WITH THE WEDGE REMAINING IN PLACE. DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...SO HAVE
TRENDED POPS DOWN QUITE A BIT. CURRENT POP SCHEME FEATURES 30-40
PERCENT CHANCE POPS. POOR THERMODYNAMICS WILL KEEP SEVERE THREAT
NEAR ZERO. CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S
NORTHWEST...TO MID 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT...THE COASTAL
TROUGH WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST ALLOWING THE INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO WEAKEN. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S.

FRIDAY...THE WEDGE WILL ERODE AND THE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BECOME
RATHER ILL-DEFINED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO PREVAIL. WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MARGINAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS LIMITED TO
AROUND 30 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. FRIDAY NIGHT...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WILL
BE ON TAP WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW 60S.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ALOFT...WEAK RIDGING WILL TAKE
PLACE WHILE A CUT OFF LOW DEEPENS OVER THE MIDWEST. INCREASING
MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING IN OUR SOUTHWEST
ZONES. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S/LOW 80S.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. ON SUNDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LOW WILL PROGRESS EAST AND SEND A
TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
FRONT. QUIET WEATHER WILL RETURN MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KCHS...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD SHIFT OVER THE TERMINAL
SOMETIME BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z...WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON AND
COULD CAUSE VSBY REDUCTIONS. IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IN STARTING TIME OF EVENT IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE EARLIER THAN 03Z TONIGHT. PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE
GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS LIKELY INTO AT LEAST
FRIDAY MORNING AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND. VFR
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS.

.MARINE...
A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN RISK FOR
MARINERS THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO
PINCH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALONG THE CENTRAL SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
CHARLESTON WATERS STARTING EARLY TONIGHT AS NORTHEAST FLOW
STRENGTHENS BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD FROM 2 FT TO
4-6 FT EAST AND NORTHEAST OF CHARLESTON AFTER MIDNIGHT. GEORGIA
WATERS WILL SEE A MUCH SLOWER PROGRESSION OF BUILDING SEAS AND
WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED
INLAND WITH A COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN INCREASED WINDS/SEAS ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES. ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS SEAS REMAIN 4-6 FEET. AN
ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IN THE OUTER GA WATERS AS WELL
HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON WHERE THE COASTAL
TROUGH WILL SET UP SO HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW. ON
FRIDAY...THE WEDGE WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RELAX. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY WEEKEND AHEAD OF
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL IMPACT THE WATERS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AT THIS TIME...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER
HEADLINE CRITERIA.

RIP CURRENTS...STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES
THURSDAY COULD PRODUCE AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO
FRIDAY.

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR AMZ350.

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...DPB
MARINE...DPB/ECT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON SC

1259 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE TRI COUNTY
AREA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE
PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS BETWEEN 1.4 TO 1.8 INCHES AND SFC
DEWPTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S RESIDE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SUPPORTING AN ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE BULK OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR
AS AN H5 SHORTWAVE SHIFTS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING HOURS...WITH THE NSSL WRF AND HRRR INDICATING A LINE OF
SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SLOWLY PROGRESSING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE AREA.

LATEST RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SHIFTING OVER THE MIDLANDS AND TOWARD INLAND COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. EXPECT SOME INTENSIFICATION OF
THIS LINE AS IT ENCOUNTERS LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SEEN SUN TODAY.
SBCAPES NEAR 3000 J/KG ALONG WITH WEAK SHEAR AND POOR LAPSE
RATES...INDICATE MAINLY PULSE/MULTI-CELL THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
AREA...WITH THE GREATER RISK IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS LINE...WHERE LFC
AND LCL LEVELS INDICATE POSSIBLE INITIATION. A FEW OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE STRONG...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY
CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THE MAIN LINE OF ACTIVITY SHIFTS OVER THE AREA
INTO THE EVENING.

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KCHS...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM ABOUT MANNING TO GEORGETOWN
SHOULD SHIFT OVER THE TERMINAL SOMETIME BETWEEN 16Z AND 19Z BUT
SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFTS ARE NOT EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON BUT
TIMING AND INITIAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS UNCERTAIN. CIGS
SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR LATER TODAY AND LIKELY BE REDUCED TO
IFR LATER TONIGHT IN A SURGE WEDGE PATTERN WITH A LARGE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION COULD LOCALLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
TO MVFR BY EARLY EVENING. AS THE SURFACE WEDGE STRENGTHENS
TONIGHT... LOWER CLOUDS WILL EXPAND UNDER THE INVERSION AND IFR
CIGS APPEAR TO BE A GOOD BET...BUT TIMING PRIOR TO 12Z THURSDAY IS
UNCERTAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS LIKELY INTO AT LEAST
FRIDAY MORNING AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND. VFR
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS.

RIP CURRENTS...STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES
THURSDAY COULD PRODUCE AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO
FRIDAY.

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR AMZ350.

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...DPB
MARINE...DPB/ECT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

229 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

DEEP UPPER CUT-OFF ACROSS GREAT BASIN IS FORCING A VERY MERIDONAL
PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. A WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE EAST SIDE
OF THE LOW IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY. WITH MUCH OF THE WAVES ENERGY WEAKENING AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE EASTERN U.S. RIDGE AND THE VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER
ILLINOIS PROGRESS INTO THE FORECAST AREA IS SLOW. A SERIES OF
SOUTHERN STREAM JET MAX MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS AND INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING AND
MOISTURE TO INTERACT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO PRODUCE
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER BUT ONLY LIGHT PRECIP TONIGHT. THE BEST
CHANCES SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST WHERE THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL BE THE MOST PRONOUNCED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

LATEST MODELS SUGGEST SHORT-WAVE RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER ILLINOIS
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE CUT-OFF LOW OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA BEGINS
TO LIFT AND BE ABSORBED BY A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM CURRENTLY
IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THIS SHOULD KEEP PRECIP MAINLY TO WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. BOTH 12Z ECMWF AND GFS
ARE STRONGER WITH THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE SYSTEM SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY THEN THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS AND THE LATEST CANADIAN.
WILL INTRODUCE THUNDER INTO SUNDAY AS GFS FORECASTED CAPE REACHES
INTO THE SEVERAL HUNDRED RANGE WITH SOME MID-LEVEL COOLING AND
DRYING EVIDENT IN BUFR SOUNDINGS COMBINED WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THERE BEGINS TO BE SOME SPREAD ON HOW
FAST THE PRECIP PULLS EAST OF THE AREA. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
TROUGH AM FAVORING ECMWF AND ITS SLOWER EVOLUTION. THIS WILL KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES IN PLACE FOR MONDAY. STRONG NVA AFTER MONDAY NIGHT
SHOULD PROVIDE SOME CLEARING, BUT WITH MID-LEVEL TEMPS IN THE -20 TO
-30C RANGE DAY TIME DIURNAL CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLY SOME RW- BY
WEDNESDAY WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES.

WITH SHORT-WAVE RIDGING AND RESULTANT HEIGHT RISES EXPECT TEMPS TO
CLIMB WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS NEXT FEW DAYS WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS
MOSTLY IN THE 70S THROUGH SATURDAY. MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST DURING THIS PERIOD
AS CURRENT PROGS SUGGEST SOME 30S POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-74 AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

MAIN ISSUE FOR THE TAFS THIS RUN IS THE TIMING OF THE ADVANCING
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND SUBSEQUENT CLOUD COVER AND DROPPING
CATEGORIES. STARTING TO SEE SOME CIRRUS WORK INTO THE SOUTH...BUT
SO FAR...ILX REMAINS MOSTLY SUNNY. TIMING OF CIG DROP BTWN 06Z AND
12Z TO REFLECT A CAT CHANGE AT SOME POINT...THOUGH MODELS ARE
BEGINNING TO DELAY. OPEN WAVE APPROACHING THE RIDGE LATER TONIGHT
IN THE EAST AND BREAKING DOWN THE HIGH PRESSURE MAINLY OVER
EASTERN ILLINOIS. THREAT FOR SHOWERS GREATER IN CMI AND
DEC...THOUGH WILL STILL BE LIKELY SCATTERED AT LEAST EARLY AND
KEEPING TO VCSH FOR NOW STILL. LOWER CIGS ALSO ANTICIPATED
POTENTIALLY AT THE MVFR/IFR BREAK IN THE FAR EAST WITH THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT LAYER RH. DROPPING DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP
TO ERODE THE MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION AT LEAST
INITIALLY...AND THE GFS IS SHIFTING TO FAR LESS SATURATED THAN
THE MORE AGGRESSIVE NAM. HRRR SO FAR IS ACTUALLY COMING IN PRETTY
WET AS WELL AND MAY NEED TO ADJUST IF IT DOES NOT RESPOND...BUT
FOR NOW AM KEEPING FROM A DRASTIC VIS DROP.

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BARKER
LONG TERM...BARKER
AVIATION...HJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

1239 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1104 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND THE REGION WITH EASTERLY FLOW.
CONCERN FOR PRECIP REALLY LATER IN THE DAY MAINLY AFTER 00Z AT
THIS POINT WITH DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACCORDING TO THE 12Z
SOUNDING. HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPS...AND WILL BE
SENDING OUT AN UPDATE MOMENTARILY. NEED TO MAKE FURTHER
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DEWPOINTS WITH THAT DRY AIR MIXING OUT THE RH
AT THE SFC LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

A WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEAST FROM THE
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
EASTERN CANADA, IS HELPING TO KEEP DRY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS IF ANY RAINFALL CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE DECAYING UPPER LOW.

THE OVERALL TREND THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BEEN DRIER AND SLOWER
LOCALLY AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND TIMING LOCALLY. GIVEN
THE WEAK FORCING WITH THE APPROACHING FEATURE, AND THE DRY AIRMASS
THAT IT WILL BE PUSHING INTO, PLAN TO GO MOSTLY DRY TODAY. WILL
ALLOW A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH IS WHERE THE WEAK
FORCING ARRIVES A LITTLE SOONER, AND THE AIRMASS IS NOT QUITE AS
DRY. OTHERWISE, LOOKING FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD
COVER, AND HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

HAVE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM THE SOUTH AND SW DURING
TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST IL OVERNIGHT AS
WEATHER SURFACE LOW EJECTS NE FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER
OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY THU MORNING. CONTINUE CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER
MAINLY EASTERN IL THU WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF I-57
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE IN BORDER. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND MID 50S IN SOUTHEAST IL SOUTH OF I-70. HIGHS
THU IN THE LOWER 70S WITH SOME UPPER 60S OVER EAST CENTRAL IL WHERE
CLOUDS LINGER LONGER IN THE AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU
NIGHT WITH JUST 20% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ON
FRIDAY THOUGH MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY DURING THIS TIME AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES NEAR IL AND GET SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.
FRIDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MILDEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.

MODELS STILL DIFFER WITH HANDLING EJECTING OF CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW
FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO IL AS AN UPPER TROF BY SUNDAY, AND
ASSOCIATED QPF FIELDS. GFS STILL BRINGS IN QPF INTO CENTRAL IL
DURING THE DAY SAT WHILE ECMWF MODELS KEEPS QPF JUST SW OF CENTRAL
IL DURING DAY ON SATURDAY, THEN SPREADS IT NE ACROSS CENTRAL IL
DURING SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TRIMMED POPS ON SAT TO DRY IN NNE
COUNTIES FROM I-74 NE AND SLIGHT CHANCES CENTRAL/SW COUNTIES SW OF I-
74 , THEN BRING POPS UPWARD FROM SW TO NE DURING SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. HIGHS SAT AROUND 70F AND MID TO UPPER 60S ON SUNDAY DUE TO
MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND. CONTINUED GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHEAST IL. COOLER HIGHS OF 59-65F ON MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROF
ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUE AS UPPER LEVEL TROF/LOW PULLS UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WHERE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE THEN. HIGHS TUE MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER 60S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...HJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

345 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED
EAST TO ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LOW/S WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH INTO KENTUCKY.
THE LIGHT PCPN AND OVERCAST CONDITIONS HAS KEPT MOST OF THE AREA
ON THE COOL SIDE TODAY...ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE OF THE CUMBERLAND
VALLEY. HOWEVER...THINNING CLOUDS AND A BREAK IN THE LIGHT RAIN
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT TEMP RISES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST. READINGS CURRENTLY VARY FROM
THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTH WHILE
DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM NEAR 60 SOUTH TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE FAR
NORTH. WINDS ARE GENERALLY FROM THE EAST TO NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15
MPH OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHILE THEY ARE A BIT
LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE TO THE SOUTH. THE LIFTING WARM FRONT
MAY REINITIATE SHOWERS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...
PER THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12...BUT RIGHT NOW THE RADAR SCOPE IS
PRETTY CLEAN. SHOULD CONVECTION REDEVELOP...SOME THUNDER MAY EVEN
BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE RISING TEMPS/INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE SOUTH.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS A FEW CLUSTERS OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL
BRUSH KENTUCKY AS THEY MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT ON THE
NORTHWEST FRINGE OF A BUILDING RIDGE. THE RIDGE FLATTENS A BIT ON
THURSDAY AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN KENTUCKY
THAT AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TO THE WEST...A
SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW SPINS ESSENTIALLY IN PLACE NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION OF THE COUNTRY...SERVING AS A SOURCE REGION FOR
ENERGY ABLE TO ESCAPE AND DRIFT EAST IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM THAT
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE KENTUCKY/S WX. GIVEN THE GENERAL MODEL
AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED A BLEND WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE HRRR AND
NAM12 FOR WEATHER SPECIFICS DUE TO THEIR HIGHER RESOLUTION...
THOUGH CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS ARE ALSO OF HIGH RELEVANCE
INTO THE NEAR TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS INTO THE
EVENING AS THE SFC FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA WITH A
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE...AS WELL. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE SFC LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST
APPROACHING. THIS WILL LIKELY LIFT ANOTHER BOUNDARY THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY WITH SHOWERS AND STRAY STORMS A
GOOD BET. THE PCPN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH INTO FRIDAY MORNING BUT
CANNOT GO DRY ATTM GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT. THIS REMAINS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO SPECIFIC DETAILS BUT IN
GENERAL YOU CAB BANK ON RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS
CONTINUING.

USED THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT FOR T/TD/WIND
GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 18-24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST FOLLOWED BY
THE SUPERBLEND. GIVEN THE HUMID CONDITIONS MADE ONLY MINOR TERRAIN
BASED ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS
FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE LOW SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...BUT IN LINE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH SOME SLIGHT RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
AFTER A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE...PROVIDING A ROUND OF RAINFALL TO THE
REGION...PUSHES THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEYS FRIDAY MORNING...
FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE MOSTLY DRY. ON
SATURDAY...ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN STREAM PUSHES
EWD TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...THE CLOSED
LOW EJECTS EWD AS WELL. THE ENERGY FROM THE CLOSED LOW THEN FEEDS
INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND HELPS DEEPEN/INTENSIFY IT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING TIME FRAME. THIS RAINFALL HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF BREAKING
THE JKL/S ALL-TIME APRIL RAINFALL RECORD...CURRENTLY WE HAVE HAD THE
SECOND WETTEST APRIL ON RECORD. IN FACT...THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
PRECIP FROM THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION ACROSS MOST OF
THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH TUESDAY. CLOSER TO HOME...TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY QUIET...COOLER...AND DRY AS THE UPPER
LEVELS TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.

GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ACTUALLY HAVE GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS MAJOR SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY...THERE LOOKS TO BE A STRONG
SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES REACHING 1.50 INCHES IN SOME
LOCATIONS WITH SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT. THEREFORE...HAVE DECIDED TO
INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDER THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH LIKELY THUNDER DURING THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING TIME FRAME. PROBABLY COULD HAVE UPPED POPS TO GO CATEGORICAL
ON SUNDAY/MONDAY MORNING BUT HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH NEIGHBORS
FOR NOW AND KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE GRIDS. ALL IN ALL...BASED ON THE
CONTINUED WET PATTERN...THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL AND WHERE RIVERS
AND CREEKS ARE STILL RUNNING HIGH.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DRIFT THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE IS CERTAINLY ON THE WANE. WITH
THIS...VISIBILITIES HAVE STAYED UP...EVEN IN THE RAIN...WHILE
CIGS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY LIFR...BUT RATHER VARIABLE. THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT AND THIS
DRIER...DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL HELP TO SCOUR OUT THE LOWER
CIGS. AS SUCH...EXPECT A RETURN TO MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS AT MOST
LOCATIONS DURING THE EARLY EVENING WITH VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MORNING...THURSDAY. AS SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND HAVE KEPT VCSH IN
ALL THE TAFS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...GREIF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

250 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE POP AND WX GRIDS PER THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE. ALSO FINE TUNED TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY BASED ON THE LATEST SHORTBLEND
GUIDANCE AND THE OBS/TRENDS. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE
NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1105 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

138 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

FRIDAY LOOKS REALLY NICE. BUMPED HIGHS UP FOR MOST LOCATIONS TO 70.
A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD KEEP LAKESHORE
AREAS FROM HOLLAND TO THE NORTH SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES IN WRN MICHIGAN
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. VERTICAL
PROFILES OF MOISTURE SUGGEST A RAPID LOWERING OF CEILINGS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING TOWARD MORNING. SMALL
AMOUNTS OF ELEVATED CAPE AND INSTABILITY MOVE THROUGH AROUND
DAYBREAK TOMORROW...BUT WILL LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF THE TAFS FOR
NOW.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1104 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...HOVING
SHORT TERM...HOVING
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...MWS
FIRE WEATHER...HOVING
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...MJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SPRINGFIELD MO

1217 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2015

...Update to Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 323 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

Some fog potential is there for tonight with residual low level
moisture and a possible clearing sky late. Something for the next
shift to take a closer look at.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

Cooler than normal temperatures are then expected Monday and
Tuesday as a Canadian air mass settles in over the Midwest.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: IFR conditions and an area of
light rain is currently moving through the area early this
afternoon. This rainfall has already pushed east of the KJLN site
and will push out of the KSGF and KBBG TAF sites during the mid
afternoon hours. visiblities will improve after the rain pushes
out, but IFR/LIFR ceilings will continue this afternoon into early
Thursday morning.

Fog is expected to develop overnight into early
Thursday and could become dense at times. By mid morning Thursday
flight conditions should start to improve.

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Wise

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

334 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

LARGE SCALE PATTERN PER WV IMAGERY THIS AFTN SHOWING FAST ZONAL FLOW
WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES EXTENDING ACROSS SRN CANADA WITH A LARGE
CLOSED OFF CIRCULATION SITUATED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. AT THE
SFC...LLVL MOISTURE RETURN IS UNDERWAY WITH DEW POINTS INCREASING
OVER THE LOWER/MID MS VLY REGION. RUC13 SHOWING BNDRY LYR MOISTURE
ADV CONTINUING THRU TONIGHT WITH PW VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND AN
INCH OVER THE CWA. TSTM DEVELOPMENT PROGGED TO OCCUR OVER CNTRL KS/S-
CNTRL NEB LATER THIS EVENING WITHIN AREA OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY/NOSE OF LLVL JET...THEN EXPAND NEWD INTO THE WRN CWA
SOMETIME AFT MIDNIGHT AS UPGLIDE INCREASES ALONG 300K SFC. PLAN ON
ONLY MAKING MINOR TWEAKS AT THIS POINT AS GOING FCST IS IN DECENT
SHAPE DEPICTING POPS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PROGRESSION OF WESTERN CONUS UPPER LOW
AND ITS IMPACTS AS IT SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

BY THURSDAY MORNING...THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED
ON TOP OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. LEE SIDE SFC LOW REFLECTION IS
FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY BROAD ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN KS AND INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST INTO
OUR WESTERN CWA...BECOMING LIKELY LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY AS
BROAD SCALE ASCENT INCREASES WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY. THE UPPER
LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND IS FORECAST TO
OPEN UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND PROVIDING CONTINUED BROAD SCALE
VERTICAL MOTION THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALREADY IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD
AS THE SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTER BETTER ORGANIZES ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO BY FRIDAY MORNING. PW`S WILL REMAIN ABOVE 1" THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH RAIN IS LIKELY AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY...WE WILL
HAVE A FEW INTERMITTENT BREAKS BUT TOO DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT
THIS POINT WITH SUCH SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW. BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. HAVE INCLUDED
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE TIME PERIOD.

BY MID DAY SUNDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
CWA...ALLOWING PCPN TO END FROM WEST TO EAST. THE 12Z ECMWF REALLY
WRAPS THIS SYSTEM UP...WITH NORTHWESTERLY 850MB WINDS ON THE
ORDER OF 65KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPERATURES DO APPROACH
THE 0C MARK OF THE LATEST ECMWF SO WILL NEED TO WATCH THAT
CAREFULLY FOR ANY CHANGE OVER IN PCPN TYPES SUNDAY.

MUCH COOLER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY PUT TEMPERATURES INTO THE BELOW NORMAL
CATEGORY. A FEW MINOR WAVES MAY MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW PROVIDING
SMALL CHANCES FOR PCPN.

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

MIX OF LOW END VFR/MVFR CIGS BEING REPORTED OVER ERN NEB THIS
AFTN. MEANWHILE...REGIONAL MOSAIC WAS SHOWING NARROW LINE OF SHRA
EXTENDING NWD THRU WRN MO INTO WRN IA. PCPN SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN EAST OF THE MO RIVER BEFORE DISSIPATING LATER THIS AFTN.
ACTIVITY THOUGH CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT TEMPO GROUP AT KOMA.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MIX OF LOW END VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THRU THE MAJORITY OF THE FCST PD AT ALL TERMINALS.

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...DEE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

1205 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

VARYING CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL THICKEN AND LOWER
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...DROPPING TO MVFR...IFR AND POTENTIALLY
LIFR. MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL FOR
CONVECTION...TRENDING MORE SO TOWARD LATE OVERNIGHT OR TOWARD
THURSDAY MORNING AND HAVE CARRIED VCTS INTO THURSDAY.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...FAY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR

NWS WILMINGTON NC

331 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT
WILL KEEP CLOUDY COOL AND DAMP WEATHER OVERNIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND
WILL TRACK NORTH JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
LOW WILL THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CAROLINAS BY THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING IN ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL KEEP CLOUDY COOL AND DAMP WEATHER
OVERNIGHT. THE COOLER AIR BEHIND FRONT IS BEING OVERRUN BY WARMER
MOISTER AIR ALOFT LEAVING A STRATUS DECK AND LIGHT INTERMITTENT
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT PATCHY RAIN OVER MOST OF FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME DRYING NEAR THE SURFACE HAS LIFTED THE STRATUS
DECK IN SPOTS BUT SOUNDINGS AND MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW COLUMN
BECOMING SATURATED THIS EVENING. HRRR SHOWS LARGE AREA OF PCP TO
THE WEST ENTERING OUR WESTERN CWA BY 21Z OR 5PM BUT IT DIMINISHES
IN COVERAGE AS IT MOVES EAST TOWARD THE COAST. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH FORECAST AS IS...LEAVING HIGHER POPS BUT LOW END
QPF.

ANY CONVECTION ALONG FRONT DRAPED FROM SOUTH CAROLINA...JUST SW
OF AREA TO THE NE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST AS WINDS ALOFT REMAIN OUT OF THE SW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF RIDGE. THEREFORE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAKE
IT NEAR OR INTO SOUTHERN PORTION OF CWA...MAINLY WILLIAMSBURG
COUNTY BUT AS FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THIS EVE EXPECT
CONVECTION TO SHIFT SOUTH AND DIE DOWN AS HEATING OF THE DAY CUTS
OFF.

THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND WEDGE DOWN THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH TONIGHT AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG LINGERING
FRONT TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE COASTAL WATERS OFF THE GA/SC COAST.
A TROUGH WILL EXTEND UP FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE TIGHTENING THE
GRADIENT FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT ENHANCING THE
SHALLOW COOL NE WINDS. EXPECT INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT TO
PRODUCE BETTER CHC OF RAIN BY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH
COLUMN BEING SATURATED UP THROUGH H50. OVERALL EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES
AND PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVE BUT NOT CONFIDENT
AS TO THE INTENSITY. MODELS SHOW PERTURBATION IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL FLOW MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THIS MAY ACT TO ENHANCE
LIFT AND PRODUCE SOME PERIODS OF MORE MODERATE RAIN.

TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE MID 60S THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND COLD
FRONT WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND CAA AS 850 TEMPS DROP DOWN
FROM 14C THIS MORNING TO 9C BY THURS MORNING. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S TONIGHT IN CONTINUED CAA.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST HAS BECOME NO LESS COMPLICATED
AND IN FACT...IN SOME RESPECTS...MODELS HAVE DIVERGED EVEN FURTHER
IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE GFS SOLUTION LOOKS VERY DIFFERENT FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS. THE NAM SOLUTION LOOKS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
THINKING...BUT THE PROGRESSION OF OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE IS SLOWER
AND FURTHER EASTWARD THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND CERTAINLY MUCH STRONGER.
THE CANADIAN IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER AND WEAKER THAN THE NAM AS IS
THE EUROPEAN...BUT BOTH DO CLOSE OFF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTH CAROLINA. SLOWER SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND RESULTING WEDGE...THUS THE BEST WE CAN DO
AT THIS POINT IS TO GO ALONG WITH PERSISTENCE...BUT SLOW PROGRESSION.

WILL INCLUDE HIGHEST POPS THU ALONG THE COAST AND UP TO CATEGORICAL
THU MORNING ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST DUE TO STRENGTH OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT COUPLED WITH THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH. WILL
THEN TREND POPS LOWER THU AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FROM SW TO NE WITH A
LINGERING RISK ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST FRI MORNING. GIVEN
PROXIMITY OF COASTAL TROUGH AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WILL INCLUDE
MENTION OF THUNDER FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE MOISTURE PROFILES DRY OUT CONSIDERABLY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS TO THE COAST FROM THE WEST TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD. WILL FINALLY DROP POPS BELOW THRESHOLD FRI AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...EVEN ALONG THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY.

BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON THU AS WEDGE KEEPS LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S. DEVELOPING SUNSHINE ON FRI SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...LOW AND MID 70S. LOWS THIS PERIOD
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED PRETTY DRAMATICALLY
FROM JUST YESTERDAY...LEADING TO ENHANCED UNCERTAINTY DURING THE
EXTENDED. LARGE CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WILL ONLY VERY
SLOWLY FILL AND EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...PHASING
WITH A DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
LATE MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN AMPLIFY AND STALL ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...PRODUCING 500MB
HEIGHTS OF -2 TO -3 SD`S BELOW CLIMO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC.

INITIALLY THE EXTENDED WILL BE WARM AND PLEASANT. SATURDAY IS
SHAPING UP TO BE A GORGEOUS DAY LOCALLY...WITH HIGHS ABOVE CLIMO AND
A LOT OF SUNSHINE. MOISTURE RETURNS SUNDAY IN A PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS
WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL BOTH FEATURE ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS...BUT WITH INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ATTM THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK
TO BE STRONGLY FORCED SO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS NOT ANTICIPATED
MONDAY EVENING WITH THE FROPA. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...CONVECTION MAKING HEADWAY NORTHWARD AND COULD AFFECT
THE MYRTLES FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH LOWER VISIBILITIES IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. WEDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE WITH A STRONG INVERSION
JUST OFF THE DECK. CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED IN PLACES TO MVFR...BUT
EXPECT ALL TERMINALS TO SEE IFR CEILINGS AGAIN THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE HOWEVER THE COASTAL TERMINALS WILL SEE
GUSTY WINDS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE CYCLOGENESIS.
THURSDAY...CONTINUED IFR CONDITIONS WITH EAST NORTHEAST WINDS AND
INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE WEDGE. IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE
DAY FRI. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONT. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MONDAY.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...NE WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS PINCHED GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN WEDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS AND TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. OVERALL EXPECT
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EFFECT STARTING THIS EVENING IN
AS NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KTS AND 4 TO 7 FT SEAS DEVELOP INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE AND THE STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL ALLOW A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO PERSIST INTO THU AND THIS IS WHEN WE EXPECT THE
STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS...UP TO 20 TO 30 KT...HIGHEST
NORTHERN WATERS AND SEAS UP TO 5 TO 8 FT THROUGHOUT. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SLACKENS AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO OUR N...WINDS AND SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH THIS TREND PERSISTING INTO FRI
NIGHT. ENE WINDS THU WILL BACK TO NE THU NIGHT WITH NNE TO NE
WINDS THEN PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN THE COAST AND
THEN MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY...CREATING A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WINDS SHIFTING FROM NE EARLY...TO E/SE LATE. WINDS SPEEDS THEN
STEADILY INCREASE SUNDAY AS THE GRADIENT STARTS TO PINCH AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BECOMING S/SW AT AROUND 15 KTS MOST OF
SUNDAY...AND THEN SW AT 15-20 KTS ON MONDAY DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE
FROPA. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS AT THE VERY END OF THE
PERIOD WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW AT 10-15 KTS. ALTHOUGH A WEAK SE
GROUND SWELL WILL BE PRESENT IN THE SPECTRUM DURING THE
EXTENDED...MUCH OF THE WAVE AMPLITUDE WILL BE FORMED VIA WIND
WAVES...AND SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FT SATURDAY...BUILDING TO 3-5 FT SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

$$
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RGZ/DL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

309 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT
WILL KEEP CLOUDY COOL AND DAMP WEATHER OVERNIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND
WILL TRACK NORTH JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH FRIDAY LEAVING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
MOVE MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
TO FOLLOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING IN ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL KEEP CLOUDY COOL AND DAMP WEATHER
OVERNIGHT. THE COOLER AIR BEHIND FRONT IS BEING OVERRUN BY WARMER
MOISTER AIR ALOFT LEAVING A STRATUS DECK AND LIGHT INTERMITTENT DRIZZLE
OR LIGHT PATCHY RAIN OVER MOST OF FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
DRYING NEAR THE SURFACE HAS LIFTED THE STRATUS DECK IN SPOTS BUT
SOUNDINGS AND MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW COLUMN BECOMING SATURATED
THIS EVENING. HRRR SHOWS LARGE AREA OF PCP TO THE WEST ENTERING
OUR WESTERN CWA BY 21Z OR 5PM BUT IT DIMINISHES IN COVERAGE AS IT
MOVES EAST TOWARD THE COAST. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH FORECAST
AS IS...LEAVING HIGHER POPS BUT LOW END QPF.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL WEDGE DOWN
THE COAST THU MAINTAINING COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOW LEVEL
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW CLIMO WHILE MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL RESULT IN STEADY ISENTROPIC LIFT. ON AND OFF LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED THU BUT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MID LEVEL SUPPORT HEAVY
RAIN OR CONVECTION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE. SO WHILE
POP WILL BE HIGH OVERALL QPF IS LIKELY TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE.

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THU NIGHT INTO
FRI...WEAKENING THE WEDGE. THIS COMBINED WITH BUILDING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS/THICKNESS LEADS TO A WARMING TREND. APPEARS SUBSIDENCE UNDER
THE WEAK 5H RIDGE MAY DRY OUT MID LEVEL ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BUT NOT READY TO REMOVE POP FROM THE FORECAST
GIVEN ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY. SKIES FOR
MUCH OF FRI SHOULD BE CLOUDY BUT THERE MAY BE BREAKS OF SUN
LATE...ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST. HIGHS END UP NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO
DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW...MAINLY DUE TO
MID AND LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND NORTHERLY FLOW WITH MORE OF A
WESTERLY COMPONENT. LOWS THU AND FRI NIGHTS WILL BE ABOVE TO WELL
ABOVE CLIMO.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...WEATHER REMAINS UNSETTLED THIS WEEKEND AS
DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES PUMPING MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
IT DOES APPEAR A BRIEF REPRISE IS IN STORE FOR MOST OF SAT AS
SUBSIDENCE AT THE TOP OF WEAK 5H RIDGE MAY PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. HOWEVER SAT NIGHT INTO SUN THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST AND 5H CUTOFF OVER THE SOUTHWEST STARTS SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTHEAST...OPENING UP AS IT DOES SO. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL
PRECEDE THE 5H TROUGHS PASSAGE...MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEAST SAT AND
SUN. THESE FEATURES WILL HELP ENHANCE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN AN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.

THE REMNANTS OF THE 5H CUTOFF IS LIFTED EAST-NORTHEAST BY LONGWAVE
5H TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. AS A RESULT A WARM FRONT IS
LIFTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST EARLY MON WITH A COLD FRONT SLATED TO
CROSS THE AREA MON EVENING/NIGHT. IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THE WARM
FRONT IS WHERE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND...GIVEN THE
ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. DEEP DRY AIR MOVES IN AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR.
SHORTWAVE HELPING TO PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA MAY HAVE ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION SO WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED CHC
POP FOR NOW THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TUE WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE AND A LACK OF ANY FEATURES. LIMITED
COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE FRONT COMBINED WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW AND LATE APRIL SUN WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO TUE.

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...CONVECTION MAKING HEADWAY NORTHWARD AND COULD AFFECT THE
MYRTLES FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH LOWER VISIBILITIES IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. WEDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE WITH A STRONG INVERSION JUST
OFF THE DECK. CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED IN PLACES TO MVFR...BUT EXPECT
ALL TERMINALS TO SEE IFR CEILINGS AGAIN THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE HOWEVER THE COASTAL TERMINALS WILL SEE
GUSTY WINDS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE CYCLOGENESIS.
THURSDAY...CONTINUED IFR CONDITIONS WITH EAST NORTHEAST WINDS AND
INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...NE WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS PINCHED GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN WEDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS AND TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. OVERALL EXPECT
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EFFECT STARTING THIS EVENING IN
AS NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KTS AND 4 TO 7 FT SEAS DEVELOP INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PINCHED GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS THU AND
THU NIGHT AS HIGH RIDGES DOWN THE COAST WILL MAINTAIN STRONG
NORTHEAST FLOW. EXPECT A SOLID 20 KT WITH POTENTIAL FOR 20 TO 25
KT AT TIMES. ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS MAY END UP SHORT OF SCA
THRESHOLDS SEAS WILL EXCEED 6 FT SO SCA HAS BEEN CONTINUED FROM
WED NIGHT TO THU EVENING. FURTHER EXTENSION MAY BE REQUIRED WITH
LATER UPDATES. GRADIENT STARTS TO RELAX FRI AS WEDGE BREAKS DOWN
AND WEAK WAVE FORMING ON COASTAL TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST. WINDS
WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY ON FRI WITH SPEEDS SLOWLY DECREASING. LATER
IN THE DAY FLOW WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE OFFSHORE. SEAS ALSO
START TO TREND DOWN ON FRI...FALLING FROM 3 TO 6 FT IN THE MORNING
TO 2 TO 4 FT BY EVENING. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW FRI NIGHT WILL
BECOME VARIABLE AS THE PERIOD ENDS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING SAT BUT WITH VERY LITTLE
INCREASE IN SPEED. FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SLIDES OFF THE COAST.
ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KT FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD SEAS WILL EXPERIENCE A GRADUAL INCREASING
TREND...ESPECIALLY ON SUN. SEAS START OUT 2 TO 3 FT WITH SOME
ISOLATED 4 FT POSSIBLE LATER SAT. BY SUN MORNING 2 TO 4 FT IS
EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...RAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

210 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM WEDNESDAY...

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS VARYING FROM THE MID
50S NW TO THE MID 60S FAR SE. LOW TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT NEAR 50 FAR
WEST-NW TO THE MID 50S EAST.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM WEDNESDAY...

FRI-SAT NIGHT: LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON
THE LATE-WEEK PATTERN. A MID LEVEL LOW WILL HOLD NEAR THE CO/NM
BORDER... WELL SEPARATED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM WHICH WILL FEATURE
ONE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ZIPPING ESE ACROSS ONTARIO/SRN QUEBEC
AND NRN NEW ENGLAND... AND A SECOND WAVE CROSSING BC AND THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. THE WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE OVER THE
MIDATLANTIC COAST EARLY FRI WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE
MORNING... AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE WITH MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BETWEEN THE EXITING WAVE AND THE SOUTHWEST STATES
LOW SHOULD BRING ABOUT A PERIOD OF LARGELY DRY WEATHER FRI INTO SAT.
WILL RETAIN CHANCE POPS IN THE ERN CWA EARLY FRI TO ACCOUNT FOR
LINGERING MOISTURE AND LIFT... BUT THEN WILL TREND BY MIDDAY TO DRY
WEATHER AREAWIDE AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH
DIFFLUENT DOWNGLIDE AT 850 MB. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
ABUNDANT MID LEVEL DRY AIR ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY... LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL TAKE LONGER TO DISPERSE... AND AS SUCH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON... UP TO 500-750
J/KG OF MUCAPE MAINLY IN THE NW. WILL INCLUDE A LATE-DAY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A STORM OR TWO... WITH THE THREAT ENDING QUICKLY BY MID
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. EXPECT DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT INTO
AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY AS THE MID-HIGH LEVEL DRYING
PERSISTS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY FORM LATE IN THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WRN AND SRN CWA... AS THE 850 MB ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS TO OUR EAST WITH
THE ONSET OF SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC-SOURCE FLOW... WHILE
SRN STREAM ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE BASE OF THE LOW TOWARD NC
RESULTS IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DPVA FROM THE SW. THE SOUTHWEST LOW
STARTS TO OPEN UP AND LIFT NE SAT AND GETS PICKED UP BY THE WRN
CANADA SHORTWAVE TROUGH... CULMINATING IN A LARGE BROAD TROUGH WITH
A SLIGHT POSITIVE TILT EXTENDING THROUGH CENTRAL NOAM. MOISTURE
EXTENT AND DEPTH OVER NC AS WELL AS FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE FROM THE SW SAT NIGHT WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTING TO OUR EAST... AND WILL INDICATE BOTH INCREASING POPS AND
CLOUDS FROM THE SW LATE SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. IN ADDITION... THE
STRONG WAVE CROSSING NEW ENGLAND WILL HELP DRAW DOWN A BACKDOOR
FRONT TO NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER LATE SAT NIGHT WITH COOL HIGH
PRESSURE OVER WRN QUEBEC NOSING SOUTHWARD... AND THIS MAY PROVIDE A
LITTLE EXTRA LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR PRECIP AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. EXPECT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS... WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
TO AROUND 80 (WARMER SAT THAN FRI) AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

FOR SUN-WED: OUR RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO PEAK SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE
AXIS OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER SRN
MANITOBA DOWN TO THE GULF STATES PIVOTS TO THE NE. THE SURFACE MAP
WILL FEATURE AN EXPANSIVE FRONTAL SYSTEM... EXTENDING FROM AN
OCCLUSION OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...
DOWN THROUGH THE MID SOUTH... GULF STATES... AND SOUTHEAST STATES...
ALL SWEEPING TOWARD THE ENE SUN/MON. MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL ON
INCREASING AND DEEPENING MOIST INFLOW FROM BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND
GULF ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER NC...
AND HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS SUN/SUN NIGHT. COULD SEE SOME HEAVY
RAIN. POPS SHOULD TREND DOWN IN COVERAGE DURING MONDAY BUT WE COULD
END UP WITH SCATTERED STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON... AS WE SEEM TO GET A
MID LEVEL DRY PUNCH INTO THE WARM SECTOR AS THE BROAD TROUGH AXIS
SLOWLY LIFTS OUT TO OUR NE. LARGE LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN SIT AND
SPIN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/ NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND ADJACENT
CANADIAN PROVINCES INTO MIDWEEK WITH ROUGHLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE SRN
HALF OF THE CONUS... SO EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND FAIRLY SEASONABLE
TEMPS. THE GFS BRINGS A QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT PRECIP IN FROM THE WEST
EARLY WED... BUT THIS DOESN`T LOOK WELL SUPPORTED AND WILL KEEP WED
DRY FOR NOW. -GIH

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 144 PM WEDNESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: THE MAJORITY OF CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE
RISEN TO VFR LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON BUT RADAR SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CEILINGS DROP BACK TO MVFR THERE IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. AS THIS NEW BATCH OF MOISTURE WORKS
EASTWARD...EXPECT SIMILAR FALLS IN CEILINGS AT KFAY AND PERHAPS KRDU
AND KRWI BUT THESE TWO STATIONS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF REMAINING
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THAT BEING SAID FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN
CEILINGS IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME BUT HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW
THAT PERHAPS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR LOWER CEILINGS ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND WEST. PERIODS OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH RAIN HOLDING OFF IN THE
NORTHEAST UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES ARE
A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS WELL GIVEN THE PATTERN BUT SREF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW THAT THE LIKELIHOOD OF VISIBILITIES DROPPING
BELOW VFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT IS LOW AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL PATTERNS
LEND SUPPORT TO THIS SOLUTION BEING MORE LIKELY. WINDS WILL REMAIN
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 5-10 KTS.

LONG TERM: UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES WITH CHANCES FOR ADVERSE
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND ON SUNDAY IN PARTICULAR AS A
FRONTAL ZONE CROSSES THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY MIDDAY WITH A POSSIBLE
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...ELLIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

144 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM WEDNESDAY...

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS VARYING FROM THE MID
50S NW TO THE MID 60S FAR SE. LOW TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT NEAR 50 FAR
WEST-NW TO THE MID 50S EAST.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM WEDNESDAY...

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 144 PM WEDNESDAY...

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...ELLIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

317 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM TONIGHT BUT WILL
DIMINISH TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA HAS
BEEN SLOWER TO MOVE EAST THAN EARLIER FORECAST. THE RESULT HAS
BEEN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA UP THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS
RESULTED AN MULTIPLE FIRES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY ARRIVE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THEN TO THE EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS.
CLOUDS ARE BEING DRAWN UP THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH SOME
LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE HRRR DOES GENERATE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE EAST...BUT GENERALLY EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY THOUGH.

MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT. BUT KEPT THE POPS LESS THAN 40 PERCENT.

ON THURSDAY...COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS 60 TO 65.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTING THROUGH NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WILL UNDERGO FRONTOLYSIS AS IT SAGS SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY MORNING. SPLIT FLOW REMAINS OVER NORTH
DAKOTA FRIDAY WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM JUST GRAZING FAR NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA/TURTLE MOUNTAINS. A CLOSED LOW OVER COLORADO SLOWLY
EMERGES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH NORTH DAKOTA CAUGHT BETWEEN
THESE TWO STREAMS FRIDAY AND WILL MOSTLY REMAIN IN A LULL FRIDAY
WITH BENIGN WEATHER. FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MODEL DATA
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SOME INTERACTION WITH THE CLOSED LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SPINNING INTO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT VIA THE NORTHERN STREAM
AS IT APPROACHES WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA 00Z SUNDAY. VARYING SOLUTIONS
AS TO THE TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION THAT IS
FORECAST TO PUSH INTO NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS REPRESENTS THE FASTEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION SOLUTIONS...WITH CHANCES OF RAIN CROSSING THE SOUTHERN
BORDER BEFORE 12Z SATURDAY. THE GEM/ECMWF REPRESENT SLOWER SOLUTIONS
AND ARE MORE IN LINE WITH RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD THERMAL
TROUGH/POCKET IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THIS IDEA.
850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN -2C TO -8C THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

CONCERNING FIRE WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. DESPITE A COOLING
TREND SUNDAY ONWARD...STRONG WINDS AT TIMES WILL ALIGN WITH LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING
BEHIND A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY
MAY WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY. IN ADDITION MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
OF AROUND 25 PERCENT IN THE SOUTHWEST MAY ALSO WARRANT A FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINE SUNDAY. THEN ON MONDAY THE STRONGEST WINDS AND
LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE ALIGNED IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...THUS THIS REPRESENTS ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES. WEAKER WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES...WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 40S
WEDNESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS/PRECIPITATION EVENTS SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY PROPAGATING THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN THE GREATEST FORECAST
CONCERN AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS IT CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 35-40 KNOTS AT KJMS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS CALMING TO THE WEST. BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN AT KDIK/KBIS EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. VFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT. WITH THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING. AFTER 8 PM CDT COOLER TEMPERATURES...RISING RELATIVE
HUMIDITY SHOULD END THE RED FLAG CONDITIONS. ON THURSDAY MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL BE MUCH LOWER. ALTHOUGH THE FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ELEVATED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL NOT BE REACHED.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ003>005-011>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ005-013-023-025-
036-037-047-048-050-051.

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...WAA/ZH
FIRE WEATHER...WAA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AMARILLO TX

416 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)

NO SURPRISE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS GOING TO BE CENTERED AROUND
THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS THE
UTAH/COLORADO STATE LINES.

THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE
PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO HELP CONVECTION
DEVELOP. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS THAT CONVECTION HAS ALREADY
BEGUN ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE. RUC FORECAST MUCAPE
SHOWS THAT CONVECTION WILL HAVE MARGINAL INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF
500-100 J/KG MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLES
WHERE AS THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLES ARE FORECAST FOR
1000-1500 J/KG. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ROUGHLY 30KT.
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL LING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING HOWEVER
THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY 11 PM.

THURSDAY...A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXIST
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES ON THURSDAY. THE CLOSED LOW WILL BE WELL
ESTABLISHED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND A VORT LOBE ROUNDING
THE LOW WILL GIVE A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT TO THE PATTERN. THE TIMING
OF THIS LOBE IS IN THE GENERAL TIMING OF PEAK HEATING WILL WILL GIVE
AMPLE SUPPORT OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE
HINTING AT AN EARLIER CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES BETWEEN 10AM AND NOON TOMORROW WHILE HOLDING OFF
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS SHOW THAT
STORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL HAVE 1000-2000
J/KG TO WORK WITH AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES RANGE FROM 30KT TO
35KT. HODOGRAPHS SUPPORT DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT BEFORE
CONGEALING INTO A LINEAR STRUCTURE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. PWATS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN 0.95 TO 1.05 INCHES
WHICH IS BETWEEN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL +2SD AND THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR
MID APRIL. THIS AMPLE MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS
TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO
OR TWO BEING POSSIBLE. CONVECTION WILL PUSH OFF INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA ROUGHLY AROUND 11 PM CDT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW SLOWLY BEGINS MOVING EAST. SINCE THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
SITUATED SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE EAST COMPARED TO ITS LOCATION ON
THURSDAY...AREA OF CONCERN FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY. IN FACT...THE GFS SOLUTION
IS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE...SO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ENDS UP
BEING DRY SLOTTED FRIDAY MAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES EVEN WARMER. SO
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CURRENTLY FOR FRIDAY`S CHANCES FOR
STORMS. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY COULD EASILY BE STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH HAIL BEING THE BIGGEST THREAT.

BY SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LOW MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION...WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPING.
AS THIS UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES WELL TO THE EAST...NORTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS ALOFT ON SUNDAY. THIS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HOLD STRONG SUNDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH TRANSLATES TO OFF AND ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S DURING THIS
TIME FRAME...QUITE AN UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR MID APRIL OVER THE
PANHANDLES. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES DO NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS
SET UP...IN FACT THINK THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY BE HARD TO COME BY AS
WELL. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CORRESPOND WITH UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
RIDING DOWN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...SO AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE BOTH
MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY EVENING SHAPE UP TO HAVE THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 50 72 47 71 43 / 40 50 50 20 30
BEAVER OK 51 73 52 73 47 / 40 60 70 40 60
BOISE CITY OK 42 66 42 67 40 / 30 40 50 30 30
BORGER TX 52 73 52 73 47 / 40 50 50 30 30
BOYS RANCH TX 47 75 46 72 42 / 30 40 40 20 20
CANYON TX 49 73 46 72 42 / 40 50 40 20 20
CLARENDON TX 52 73 52 73 49 / 30 60 60 30 40
DALHART TX 44 69 42 69 40 / 30 40 40 20 20
GUYMON OK 48 70 49 71 44 / 30 50 50 30 40
HEREFORD TX 49 74 45 71 41 / 40 40 30 20 20
LIPSCOMB TX 54 74 52 72 49 / 40 60 70 40 60
PAMPA TX 50 71 49 71 46 / 40 60 60 30 40
SHAMROCK TX 54 74 53 74 50 / 30 60 70 40 50
WELLINGTON TX 55 75 52 76 51 / 30 60 60 40 40

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: DALLAM...HARTLEY.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CIMARRON.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

133 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 252 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT TUESDAY...

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVES THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO LIFT TO VFR INTO
THIS EVENING. WARM MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERRUN DRY COOL AIR
WORKING SOUTH ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. WITH
LOSE OF HEATING AND CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW...EXPECTING CLOUDS TO
LOWER TO MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THROUGH
MOST OF THE NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE THURSDAY
MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

ON FRIDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ONCE THE WEDGE BREAKS.

ON SATURDAY THE FRONT COMES THROUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECTING OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS UNTIL THE FRONT
PASSES.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/RCS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...AMS/JH/MBS
HYDROLOGY...JH/WP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

1238 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.
THE ONLY REAL CONCERN IS RAIN ASSOCIATED A SURFACE LOW...MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN RETURN
FLOW AROUND A DEPARTING HIGH. THE 12Z NAM HAD SOME QPF INTO
SOUTHERN MANITOWOC AND CALUMET COUNTIES THURSDAY MORNING WHILE
THE 12Z GFS...12Z GEM-NH...AND 00Z ECMWF ALL KEPT THE QPF JUST TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BASED ON THE DRY 12Z GRB AND
CENTRAL ILLINOIS SOUNDINGS IT WOULD SEEM LIKE A DRY FORECAST WOULD
BE THE BETTER ROUTE...BUT THE 12Z NASHVILLE SOUNDING WAS SATURATED
SO THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FORECAST. POTENTIAL FOR RAIN
AND LOW CIGS/VSBYS SEEMS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN MTW TAF.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ030-035>037-
045.
&&

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......MG