Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/13/15

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

327 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY...AN INTERMEDIATE SPECIAL SOUNDING AT
XMR YIELDS A PWAT ~1.52 INCHES ALONG WITH SW FLOW AT STEERING
LEVEL NR 10 TO 15 KTS. ADDITIONALLY...TEMPS AT H5 HAVE COOLED TO
-10C. THE APCHG GULF WAVE WL HELP ADD POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADT`L
STORMS ALONG WITH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. THE
MOST RECENT 2KM HRRR SOLN INDICATES ACTIVE COASTAL BREEZES FOLDING
TOGETHER LATE THIS AFTN LIKELY BRINGING THE GREATEST HAZARD FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HAIL.
ACTIVITY RESULTING FROM THE LARGER COLLISION IS SHOWN MOVING BACK
TOWARD THE EAST COAST THROUGH DUSK...ESP N OF SEBASTIAN INLET.

SHOWER AND STROSM SHOULD WIND DOWN BY 11 PM...OR MOVE OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS...LEAVING LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND LIKELY
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG EARLY SUNDAY INLAND SPOTS.

SUNDAT... THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA WILL STAY AS SUCH
WITH THE TAIL END OF FEATURE REMAINING NORTH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIDGE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND
ONSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LOCAL
CONVERGENCE OF WINDS WILL SET UP OVER THE INTERIOR AS EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND FASTER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. WITH WEAK
STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHEST PRECIP CHC ALONG WITH EMBEDDED
STORMS OVER THE NORTH INTERIOR...50 TO 55 PERCENT. QUICKER INLAND
PUSH OF SEA BREEZE SHOULD BRING THE LOWEST POPS TO THE COAST SOUTH
OF CANAVERAL...30 PERCENT.

SUN NIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. TAIL END OF
FRONTAL IS STILL PROGGED TO HANG UP NORTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BRIDGES THE BOUNDARY AND DEVELOPS
AN ONSHORE GRADIENT WIND FLOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD RISE FROM
PREVIOUS DAYS...REACHING 1.5 INCHES OR A LITTLE HIGHER AREAWIDE.

MON-NEXT SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE
WEEK WITH A RIDGE AXIS SETTLING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY TUE. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING OFFSHORE TO OUR NORTH AT MID WEEK
WILL NOT LIKELY HAVE MUCH IMPACT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT SHOWN RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH A STRONGER FRONT THAT MAY APPROACH NEXT
WEEKEND. SO THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT MOISTURE LEVELS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NO SUPPRESSION...SO EXPECT THAT WE WILL
HAVE SCATTERED SEA BREEZE GENERATED SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY.
DISTRIBUTION OF COVERAGE WILL DEPEND ON STEERING FLOW...WHICH IS
PROGGED TO BE WEAKLY WEST TO EAST EARLY IN THE WEEK AND THEN GET
STRONGER THROUGH LATE WEEK. OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ALOFT
SHOULD ADD ADDITIONAL LIFT...AND MAY ACT TO KEEP CONVECTION GOING
WELL INTO SOME EVENINGS.

WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO CHRISTEN THE ONSET OF THE WET SEASON...IT
APPEARS MOST OF THE AREA WILL START TO SEE RAINFALL DEFICITS
DIMINISH SOME.

.AVIATION...
TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS EXPECTED WITH SCT SHRA WITH SOME EMBEDDED TS
ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES FROM MID AFT AND INTO THE EVE. ISOLD SFC
WND G 35 TO 40KT AND CIGS AOB FL 035 PSBL MNLY INLAND THROUGH
12/01Z. SOME PATCHY MIFG WL BE POSSIBLE INTERIOR SITES FM
12/07Z-12/12Z.

.MARINE...
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...SW WIND FORECAST ACROSS THE WATERS WITH
A E/SE COMPONENT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS THEN BECOME MORE
ONSHORE INTO SUNDAY AS FRONT WEAKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT
AROUND 5-10 KTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WITH ANY STORMS THAT EITHER FORM NEAR THE COAST
WITH INITIALLY SEA BREEZE FORMATION OR FROM BOUNDARY COLLISIONS
LATER IN THE DAY THAT PUSH OFFSHORE...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...ESP N
OF SEBASTIAN INLET.

MON-WED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SEAWARD AND WINDS WILL VEER TO
SOUTHEAST MON THEN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ON TUE. EXPECTED SPEEDS ARE
10-15 KNOTS. ON WED THE TAIL END OF ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CAUSE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO EASE AND WINDS DIMINISH. A CHANCE FOR
STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE IS INDICATED EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING...
ESPECIALLY FROM CANAVERAL NORTHWARD.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 67 83 70 82 / 30 50 30 50
MCO 67 88 69 86 / 30 50 30 50
MLB 69 84 71 83 / 40 40 30 40
VRB 68 85 70 84 / 30 30 30 30
LEE 69 86 70 84 / 20 50 30 50
SFB 68 86 69 84 / 30 50 30 50
ORL 68 86 69 85 / 30 50 30 50
FPR 68 85 71 84 / 30 30 30 30

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

SHORT TERM...PENDERGRAST
LONG TERM....JOHNSON

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

946 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015

.DISCUSSION...
...A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

LTST SOUNDING FROM XMR SHOWS A FAVORABLE SETUP IN PLACE FOR EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. PWAT HAS INCREASED
TO ~1.6 INCHES ALONG WITH SW FLOW AT STEERING LEVEL NR 10 TO 15 KTS.
PRESENCE OF AN APPROACHING GULF WAVE ALONG WITH A DRY LAYER FROM H7
TO H5 WL ADD POTENTIAL FOR HAIL DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH STRONG
DOWNBURST WINDS NEAR ANY STRONGER STORMS WHICH DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HEAT. RECENT 2KM HRRR SOLN INDICATES INITIAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG A SLOW INLAND MOVING ECSB AROUND MID DAY WITH A
LATE COLLISION OF COASTAL BREEZES OVER ECFL NR 5 TO 6 PM LIKELY
BRINGING THE GREATEST HAZARD FOR DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG WIND GUSTS
...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HAIL. ACTIVITY RESULTING FROM THE LARGE
BOUNDARY COLLISION IS SHOWN MOVING BACK TOWARD THE EAST COAST
THROUGH DUSK...ESP N OF SEBASTIAN INLET.

PERSONS PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED TO MOVE INDOORS BEFORE STORMS APPROACH
YOUR LOCATION.

THE HAZARDOUS OUTLOOK AND FORECAST WL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.

.AVIATION...TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS EXPECTED WITH SCT-NMRS SHRA WITH
SOME EMBEDDED TS ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES THIS AFT AND INTO THE
EVE. SFC WND G NR 40KT AND CIGS AOB FL 030 PSBL MNLY INLAND 11/19Z-
12/01Z.

.MARINE...SW WIND FORECAST ACROSS THE WATERS WITH A E/SE COMPONENT
NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE FORMS THIS AFTN. WINDS
THEN BECOME MORE ONSHORE INTO TONIGHT AS FRONT WEAKENS AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT AROUND 5-10 KTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET.

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

JP/FJ/WU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

1036 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTH
GEORGIA THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC REGION THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WILL RESULT IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS MAINLY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A SERIES OF
WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE. MOISTURE OVER-RUNNING A FRONT STALLED OVER
SOUTHERN GA WILL AFFECT THE CSRA THE MIDLANDS TONIGHT. PWAT
RANGING FROM 0.60 INCHES NORTH MIDLANDS TO 1.20 INCHES ACROSS THE
CSRA WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.00 INCH NORTH MIDLANDS TO 1.70
INCHES CSRA OVERNIGHT.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH OVERNIGHT. MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ARE
FORECAST GIVEN CLOUDS AND WIND.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST MONDAY
AS A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE PLAINS. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DIG TOWARD THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY
WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. STATIONARY FRONT SITUATED ALONG THE GULF
COAST WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY ADVECTING GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP FROM THE
GULF STATES AND TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY DRAGGING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA. GFS MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE GENERALLY AROUND 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE INCREASING POPS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY
AS MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE. CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER
ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA CLOSER TO THE
FRONT MONDAY BUT INSTABILITY APPEARS MINIMAL. BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDER TUESDAY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA WHERE INSTABILITY APPEARS WEAK TO
MODERATE. WPC DAY 1-3 QPF SHOWS AROUND 1 TO 1.75 INCHES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WEST. WPC SHOWS UP TO 3
INCHES OF QPF IN THE UPSTATE SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR RIVER LEVELS
DOWNSTREAM. NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY WITH
ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUD COVER. WARMER HIGHS SHOULD OCCUR TUESDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS AN UPPER LOW REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES WILL PROMOTE WEDGE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WEDGE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THURSDAY. MODELS SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING
ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND SLIP
NORTHWARD FRIDAY REMAINING ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. WEDGE FLOW WILL PROMOTE
BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOWERING CEILINGS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A LONG-FETCH
EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC AND WARM FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA. RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. EXPECT IFR
OR LIFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. USED AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS MOS
AND LAMP PLUS NAM MOS FOR THE TIMING OF DEVELOPING IFR CONDITIONS.
THIS TIMING WAS ALSO CLOSE TO THE HRRR GUIDANCE. FORECASTED MAINLY
LOW STRATUS BELIEVING WIND WILL HELP HOLD UP VISIBILITY EXCEPT IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE GFS AND NAM MOS SUPPORTED MAINLY EASTERLY
WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. CLOUDINESS SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY. WE
BELIEVE THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEAR THE
AREA WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING DURING MUCH
OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

737 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOWERING CEILINGS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A LONG-FETCH
EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC AND WARM FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA. RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. EXPECT IFR
OR LIFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. USED AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS MOS
AND LAMP PLUS NAM MOS FOR THE TIMING OF DEVELOPING IFR CONDITIONS.
THIS TIMING WAS ALSO CLOSE TO THE HRRR GUIDANCE. FORECASTED MAINLY
LOW STRATUS BELIEVING WIND WILL HELP HOLD UP VISIBILITY EXCEPT IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE GFS AND NAM MOS SUPPORTED MAINLY EASTERLY
WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. CLOUDINESS SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY. WE
BELIEVE THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEAR THE
AREA WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING DURING MUCH
OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

929 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

.UPDATE...
928 PM CDT

MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO GOING FORECAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
FIRST...BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND HI-RES GUIDANCE TRENDS AND
SLOWER TIMING OF UPPER WAVE NOTED ON W/V IMAGERY...HAVE SLOWED
POPS BY A FEW HOURS. NOW HAVE BEST FOCUS IN PREDAWN AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS CLOSER TO APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STILL MAINTAINED
LIKELY POPS GIVEN DECENT FORCING AND SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER MENTION
WITH ONLY MEAGER MUCAPE ON SOUNDINGS AND UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL
TIMING. LINE OF SHRA WELL TO WEST HAS MAINTAINED LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY THUS FAR...BUT HAVE SEEN A WARMING TREND IN CLOUD TOPS ON
IR IMAGERY...SO FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER
MENTION.

NEXT...BUMPED UP TEMPS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT GIVEN MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND WARM PREFRONTAL AIRMASS SAMPLED BY 00Z RAOBS.
FINALLY...RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON MONDAY A FEW
DEGREES. AFTER COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
MORNING...AIR MASS WILL COOL AT 850 MB...BUT MILD TEMPS AROUND +10
TO +11 CELSIUS WILL LINGER AT 925 MB. IN ADDITION...MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO AREA WILL ALSO SUPPORT DEEP MIXING...SO
WITH TREND TO FULL SUNSHINE IN DRY AND DEEPLY MIXED
AIRMASS...EXPECT EFFICIENT SURFACE WARMING AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70. EXCEPTION WILL BE PORTION OF INDIANA
SHORE KEPT COOLER BY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS...MAINLY FROM EASTERN
LAKE COUNTY ACROSS PORTER COUNTY.

.SHORT TERM...
235 PM CDT

THROUGH MONDAY...

ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW HAS LINGERED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SUBSIDENCE PUSHING DEW POINTS INTO THE MID/UPR 30S
FOR THE BULK OF THE CWFA. A MID-LVL WAVE WAS LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS IA/MO WITH SOME ASSOCIATED PRECIP. ALTHOUGH WITH A VERY DRY
NEAR SFC ENVIRONMENT...DISPLAYING T/TD SPREADS BETWEEN 20-30
DEGREES...THE ABILITY FOR PRECIP TO REACH THE SFC HAS BEEN A
CHALLENGE. EXPECT SOME MOISTENING AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...SO
WILL JUST PUSH BACK THE TIMING OF PRECIP UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THAT COVERAGE OF PRECIP WILL BE VERY HIGH.
THE INSTABILITY HAS BEEN LACKING WITH THIS WAVE AS IT LIFTS
NORTH...WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY REMAINING ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MO WHERE THE VISIBLE IMAGERY LOOKS MORE CONVECTIVE.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST TONIGHT...WITH GUIDANCE
STILL LEANING TOWARDS ADDTL MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
THE 500MB TROUGH BEGINS TO PIVOT EAST OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MON MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME A
WEAK SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY MON MORNING...WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. IT REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR SOME THUNDER
TO OCCUR AFT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THRU DAYBREAK MON...ALTHOUGH FEEL THIS
COULD BE RESTRICTED TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL
REMAIN MILD WITH THE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER PREVENTING
COOLING...HOWEVER IF THE PRECIP CAN DEVELOP THIS MAY COOL THE SFC A
FEW DEGREES FURTHER. CURRENT LOWS ARE PROGGED INTO THE LOW 50S.

A PROGRESSIVE FLOW REMAINS FOR MON WITH THE BOUNDARY PUSHING EAST
JUST AFTER DAYBREAK MON...AS ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SHIFTS EAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY MON AFTN...WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE
MID/UPR 60S.

BEACHLER

.LONG TERM...
235 PM CDT

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

SFC RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE TUE-WED NGT
WITH MINIMAL CLOUDS AND PLEASANT TEMPS IN THE 60S. THE DOWNSIDE
COULD BE AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN. GIVEN THE LIGHT FLOW IN
THE NEAR SFC WOULD ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT TUE/WED AND TURN
AN ONSHORE FLOW. GUIDANCE HAS ALSO BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS LIFTING THE
SFC RIDGE NORTHEAST...WHICH COULD REINFORCE THE ONSHORE FLOW. AS A
RESULT TEMPS CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN MAY REMAIN IN THE 40S TUE/WED
AFTN.

ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING SFC RIDGE...RETURN FLOW
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO STREAM NORTH FROM THE WESTERN GULF INTO THE
OZARKS AND EVENTUALLY INTO NORTHERN IL. A 500MB TROUGH WILL PUSH
INTO THE FOUR-CORNERS OF THE CONUS. THIS SETS UP A SOUTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN AND CHANCES FOR PRECIP RETURNS THUR/FRI. TEMPS THRU THE
EXTENDED WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SEASONAL...HOWEVER IF CLOUDS AND
PRECIP ARE LESS ROBUST THEN TEMPS COULD WARM INTO THE UPR 60S TO
ARND 70 THUR/FRI.

ENSEMBLES IN THE FINAL PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED BEGIN TO DIVERGE
WITH LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE TROUGH AXIS IN THE WESTERN CONUS
DISSOLVING...AND RIDGING TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER THE PAC-NW. THIS
MAY ALLOW A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP FRI NGT-SAT...HOWEVER A
TRANSITION TOWARDS AN AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE MAY ALLOW FOR A
RETURN TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED.

BEACHLER

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...

* SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING.
* SHOWERS AND LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY.

KJB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...

A FRONTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS/NORTHWESTERLY INDIANA BY MID MORNING ON MONDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ACROSS THE
TERMINALS TONIGHT. A WIND SHIFT AND INCREASE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
IS EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE SPEEDS BEGIN TO EASE.

ASIDE FROM A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES OR VERY BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER THIS
EVENING...IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONTAL TROUGH
APPROACHES. THUS...THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
AROUND DURING THE EARLY MORNING. IT APPEARS THAT THE THREAT OF
THUNDER WILL REMAIN LOW WITH THIS ACTIVITY...SO NO MENTION HAS BEEN
ADDED TO THE LATEST TAFS. A SHORT 2 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
AROUND 2,000 FEET AGL MAY DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. ANY LOWER CIGS WILL
QUICKLY IMPROVE FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BY MID
MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BY MIDDAY.

KJB

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...

* MEDIUM-HIGH WITH WIND TRENDS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
* MEDIUM-HIGH WITH PRECIP TIMING.
* MEDIUM WITH MVFR CIGS VERY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

KJB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SOME THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA...OTHERWISE VFR.

SATURDAY...VFR PROBABLE.

KJB

.MARINE...
254 PM CDT

HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE EAST
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF HUDSON BAY WILL
CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD TREK...WHILE DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
LAKE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS MAY BRING A FEW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS.
THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES EAST...THEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SHIFTS OVER THE LAKE EARLY TUESDAY...THEN EAST TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE LAKE FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

KMD

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
827 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 820 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

MCV which produced convection to our southwest today before dissipating
west of the Mississippi River late this afternoon has shifted into
parts of northeast IL and southeast Wisconsin this evening. A few
light showers/sprinkles were trailing to the south and southwest
of the feature and were in the process of exiting our forecast
area. The next upper wave and associated cold front were over the
Missouri Valley early this evening with scattered convection
occurring over parts of far west central thru northwest Iowa. The
latest Rapid Refresh and HRRR models continue a slowing trend with
respect to the eastward push to the showers late tonight. SPC
mesoanalysis and local objective analysis indicating MUCAPES of
around 500 j/kg just west of our area early this evening with
HIRES reflectivity simulations from the ARW and NMM indicating
some isolated convection along the leading edge of the precip
band as it enters Illinois after midnight. Looks like about a
3-5 hour window for showers and isolated thunder once it arrives
late tonight through early Monday morning before the cold front
sweeps through the area taking the higher rain chances to the
east and southeast portions of the forecast area for the afternoon
hours.

Have made some minor adjustments to the timing of the precip into
the forecast area as well as some temperature tweaks early this
evening. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast is in good shape. Will
have the updated zone forecast out by 9pm.

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

18z/1pm water vapor imagery shows two features of interest to the
short-term forecast for central Illinois. The first is a lead
short-wave trough over southern Iowa/northern Missouri and the
second is a more amplified wave tracking out of the Rockies. The
initial wave has been responsible for a few sprinkles along/west of
I-55 early this afternoon and will be largely north of the area by
early evening. Once this feature passes, there will likely be a
several hour lull in precip chances before the Rockies wave and its
associated cold front approach from the west late tonight. All
models have slowed its eastward progression, with FROPA not
occurring until Monday morning. Model QPF fields differ slightly,
with the GFS being the most aggressive in spreading precip eastward
across the entire KILX CWA overnight. Given initially dry
low-levels, think this solution is suspect. Prefer the slower
higher-res models such as the NAM, HRRR, and Rapid Refresh which all
show precip confined to locations west of the I-57 corridor after
midnight. Have adjusted PoPs accordingly, going with low chance
along the I-57 corridor and likely from I-55 westward. Further east
toward the Indiana border, precip may be delayed until after
sunrise. Forecast soundings remain rather stable, with only weak
elevated instability noted. As such, have opted to only mention
isolated thunder overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

All the models push the front and associated pcpn through most of
the CWA by noon Monday. However, things seem to linger a bit in the
southeast during the afternoon as the front becomes somewhat
parallel to the flow. So will have chance pops in the extreme
southeast during the afternoon and a slight chance south of I-70 for
Monday evening. Then as high pressure builds into the region behind
this front, dry weather is expected through Tue night. Models then
differ on how quickly pcpn will return into the CWA for Wed.
Canadian and ECMWF bring pcpn in for Wed, while NAM-WRF and GFS have
no pcpn on Wed. Will compromise between the two and have a small
chance in the southwest for Wed...then will have chance pops
everywhere beginning Wed night.

Models show considerable difference past Wed and the GFS is quite
different than previous forecast. Previous forecast/grids had chance
of pcpn in almost every extended period; however, will begin to
limit the number of periods with pcpn this forecast package given
that new 12z model runs are trending drier in some time frames. So,
will reduce pops to slight chance for Thur night and Fri night, and
then go dry for Sat and Sat night. So, other periods of Thur, Fri,
and Sun will have chance pops for now. With models becoming
inconsistent from run to run, would not be surprised to see these
chances get reduced as well during later forecasts.

Temps through the period will remain above normal, even on days with
cloud cover and expected pcpn chances. However, will not have temps
as warm as the new MEX guidance.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

VFR conditions expected this evening with isolated showers
pushing across the area as a weak upper level wave shifts
thru the region. Late tonight and into Monday morning, a frontal
boundary is expected to push across the area accompanied by
showers and low VFR cigs. Cold front that will bring a more
widespread rainfall to the TAF sites late tonight thru Monday
morning was located over far northwest Iowa. Latest short
term guidance suggests the showers should begin to push into
our western TAF sites in the 06z-08z time frame and not to
our eastern areas until around 10z. Instability weak at best
but will continue to carry VCTS overnight as the band of
showers moves through.

Latest short term forecasts continue to indicate the potential
for non-convective low level wind shear late tonight (07z-12z)
with surface winds expected around 10 kts, with 40-45 kts forecast
around 2000 feet late tonight. Surface flow will remain southeast
to south this evening with speeds diminishing to around 10 kts,
and then become south to southwest towards morning at around 10
kts, with winds shifting into the northwest at 10 to 15 kts after
FROPA in the 14z-18z time frame starting in PIA, with the last site
to see the wind shift being CMI by 18z.

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Smith

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

1229 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1229 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015

THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS AND AMPLE SUNSHINE AS
HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL REACH TO NEAR 60S DEGREES...AND
INTO THE MID 60S ON SUNDAY.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2015

987MB SURFACE LOW LIFTING INTO QUEBEC AT PRESS TIME WITH A
SECONDARY VORT MAX AND SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH CURRENTLY ROTATING
THROUGH CHICAGO. BRIEF RELAXATION OF PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY HAS ALLOWED WIND SPEEDS TO SUBSIDE A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM SURFACE OBS SHOW NUMEROUS GUSTS OVER
40 KTS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY DEEP MIXING HEIGHTS IN PLACE OVER OUR AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH 50 KT WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND A GOOD PUSH OF ISENTROPIC DESCENT SEEN MOVING IN BEHIND
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. MSAS ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS A DECENT PRESSURE
RISE-FALL COUPLET ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THAT MAY BE HELPING PRODUCE
THE HIGHER WIND GUSTS. WE DO START TO LOSE DIURNAL SURFACE
HEATING/BETTER PBL MIXING BY THE TIME THIS TROUGH MAKES IT TO OUR
AREA BUT AM CONCERNED WE COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES...DURING THE EARLY
EVENING AND AM HESITANT TO SOUND THE "ALL CLEAR" ON STRONG WIND
GUSTS. HAVE THEREFORE DECIDED TO EXTEND AND EXPAND THE WIND
ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN PLACE.

THIS SECONDARY PV ANOMALY...EXTENDING DEEP INTO THE
TROPOSPHERE...MAY ALSO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AS IT ROTATES THROUGH
THE REGION THIS EVENING. UPSTREAM RADAR/SURFACE OBS SHOW DECENT
SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...OCCURRING WITH THIS WAVE
AND SUSPECT SIMILAR RESULTS IN OUR LOCAL AREA. MOST OF THE LATEST
HI-RES/RAPID UPDATE MODELS GENERATE AT LEAST SOME QPF IN OUR
NORTHERN CWA AND SEE NO REASON TO ARGUE BASED ON STRENGTH/DEPTH OF
THE ANOMALY SEEN IN BOTH WV IMAGERY AND MODEL PLAN VIEWS. HAVE
THEREFORE RAISED POPS FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES IN THE 22-03Z
TIMEFRAME. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THESE SHOWERS COULD HELP MIX DOWN
SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE THIS
EVENING....PROVIDING FURTHER SUPPORT FOR A SIMPLE EXTENSION OF THE
CURRENT WIND ADVISORY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD EASILY DROP INTO THE MID 30S UNDER STRONG CAA.
STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO INHERITED FORECAST...WHICH WAS SIMILAR TO
LATEST MOS GUIDANCE. WELCOME RETURN TO MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER BY
TOMORROW AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE ANTICYCLONE BUILD
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. SOME LATE DAY WAA AND FULL SUN SHOULD PUSH US TO
AROUND 60F DESPITE COOL START.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2015

LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OUT QUIET...WITH AN AMPLIFYING 500MB
RIDGE ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
SATURDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL START OUT CLEAR IN THE EVENING...THEN
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WEST AND CENTRAL AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOWS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE BUT NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST GIVEN
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. KEPT GOING FORECAST OF TEMPS IN THE
MID-UPPER 30S.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND FORECAST COMPLEXITY RETURN LATE
WEEKEND AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...WITH A COMPLICATED
PATTERN AND THE ASSOCIATED MODEL DISAGREEMENT.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING THE CWA SITS ON THE OUTER EDGE OF THE SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH BY THIS TIME IS JUST OFF THE EASTERN US
COAST. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS VARIOUS SHORTWAVES PROPAGATE THROUGH THE
FLOW FROM THE DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER MANITOBA. BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH/COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM MN/WI SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GENERAL DISAGREEMENT
AMONG MODELS ON EXACT TIMING OF ANY PRECIPITATION...WITH THE GFS
BEING MOST PROGRESSIVE AND DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN OUR CWA...AND THE NAM/GEM ECMWF
WAITING UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING TO BRING IN PRECIPITATION.
THE ECMWF CAMP IS ALSO A BIT SHARPER WITH THE UL TROUGH...WHEREAS
THE GFS IS MORE BROAD. DECIDED TO GO WITH A GFS/ECMWF COMPROMISE FOR
NOW WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF POPS. THIS BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING AND HAS IT EXITING THE EASTERN CWA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AND HAVE POPS/WINDS REFLECTING THIS. MOISTURE WILL BE
AMPLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 1.3 INCHES
WITH RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SFC HIGH AND APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH TO WEST...PULLING MOISTURE RIGHT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
FRONT MOVEMENT SHOULD BE PRETTY QUICK...AND INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL
SO DONT REALLY HAVE ANY CONCERNS FOR STORMS WITH THIS. DID ADD A
SLGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER LATE SUN NIGHT WITH SOME MODELS GENERATING
100-200 J/KG OF MUCAPE...BUT NOT REALLY CONFIDENT IN THAT OCCURRING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN UNDERNEATH A BUILDING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH
MODELS APPEAR TO AGREE ON. AS A RESULT...KEPT THINGS DRY FOR THAT
TIME.

HOWEVER...BY MID TO LATE WEEK...PROBLEMS DEVELOP AS THEY
ATTEMPT TO RESOLVE SPLIT FLOW ALOFT...WITH A TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS 00Z WED...AND ANOTHER
TROUGH/POTENTIAL CLOSED LOW MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIE THROUGH THURSDAY. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF DEVELOP A SURFACE/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE DAKOTAS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR
CWA...AND INTO KY/TN. THIS BRINGS US SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY...AND HIGHER POPS INTO THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS
THE PATTERN SOLIDIFIES INTO A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE MIDWEST. THE LOW
EVENTUALLY DRIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...BUT AS TO
STRENGTH/TIMING/EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH THE LOW MOVES....ITS ALL UP IN
THE AIR. KEPT CONSENSUS CHANCE POPS IN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH
CHANCE THUNDER ONLY ON THURSDAY WHEN BOTH MODELS HAVE US IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THE OCCLUDED SFC LOW. CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS
LOWER...GIVEN MODEL DISCREPANCIES AND DIFFICULTIES HANDLING THE
MERGING FEATURES. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...LOOKS TO STAY NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S/UPPER 50S NEAR THE
LAKE/ AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015

VFR/DRY WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS TOWARD THE OH
VALLEY.

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WICHITA KS

104 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND A WEAK TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE ALOFT HAS
OVERCOME SEEMINGLY MODEST MOISTURE AND RESULTED IN SCATTERED
ELEVATED SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS FROM NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LATEST RUC HAS THE
BEST HANDLE ON THIS ACTIVITY WHICH LINGERS IT INTO THE 12Z- 15Z
TIME FRAME ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. STRONGER ELEVATED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ALOFT MIGRATES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL
ALLOW DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS LATER TODAY TO
DEVELOP/MOVE EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...BEFORE RENEWED SURFACE BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. WHILE INTENSITY SHOULD
DECREASE BY SUNDAY EVENING...COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE ALONG
THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS. COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS STILL ON TAP FOR MONDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK TO INCREASE BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER TROF MOVING FROM THE
ROCKIES AND BECOMING A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE
IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION AND MOVEMENT/TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM...THOUGH FORECAST CONSENSUS SUPPORTS MODEST CHANCE POPS BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

KED

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

FOR ICT-SLN-HUT-CNU-RSL...WEAK 800-600MB WARM/MOIST ADVECTION MAY
SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY GENERALLY
ALONG/WEST OF I-135. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SPARSE SO LEFT OUT OF
TAFS FOR NOW. ANTICIPATING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FROM WEST-EAST...AS
850-700MB WARM/MOIST ADVECTION STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACTLY
WHERE ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP/MOVE AT THIS TIME...SO COVERED THREAT
WITH VCSH/VCTS FOR NOW AT ALL TERMINALS...BUT ANTICIPATE TEMPO
GROUPS WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. THINKING THUNDER THREAT WILL
GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION AFTER SUNRISE. FURTHERMORE...AFTER ABOUT
09Z...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DIURNAL COOLING WILL
SUPPORT CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR OR POSSIBLY EVEN IFR...ESPECIALLY
ICT-HUT-SLN-RSL.

ADK

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCES TONIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. OTHERWISE...INCREASING SOUTH WINDS WILL ELEVATE
THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON IN RAIN-FREE AREAS AS
WELL AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

KED

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 71 56 77 53 / 30 40 40 60
HUTCHINSON 70 55 78 49 / 20 50 40 40
NEWTON 70 55 76 50 / 30 50 40 50
ELDORADO 71 56 76 53 / 50 50 40 60
WINFIELD-KWLD 70 56 76 55 / 30 30 40 70
RUSSELL 72 55 78 44 / 30 40 20 20
GREAT BEND 72 55 79 46 / 30 40 20 20
SALINA 74 55 78 46 / 20 60 40 30
MCPHERSON 71 55 77 48 / 20 60 40 40
COFFEYVILLE 73 54 77 57 / 40 30 40 70
CHANUTE 71 54 76 54 / 40 50 50 70
IOLA 71 53 75 54 / 30 60 50 70
PARSONS-KPPF 72 54 76 56 / 40 30 40 70

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WICHITA KS

633 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND A WEAK TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE ALOFT
HAS OVERCOME SEEMINGLY MODEST MOISTURE AND RESULTED IN SCATTERED
ELEVATED SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS FROM NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LATEST RUC HAS
THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS ACTIVITY WHICH LINGERS IT INTO THE 12Z-
15Z TIME FRAME ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. STRONGER ELEVATED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ALOFT MIGRATES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS WILL ALLOW DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS LATER
TODAY TO DEVELOP/MOVE EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...BEFORE RENEWED SURFACE BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. WHILE INTENSITY SHOULD
DECREASE BY SUNDAY EVENING...COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE ALONG
THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS. COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS STILL ON TAP FOR MONDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK TO INCREASE BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
WITH THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER TROF MOVING FROM
THE ROCKIES AND BECOMING A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION AND MOVEMENT/TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH FORECAST CONSENSUS SUPPORTS MODEST
CHANCE POPS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

KED

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING HAVE ALLOWED SMOKE FROM THE
FLINT HILLS TO DRIFT INTO THE WICHITA AREA AND REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR. THIS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS SPEEDS
INCREASE AND VEER TO THE SOUTH CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE TO
VFR. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE BETTER CHANCES SHOULD ARRIVE TONIGHT. SOME
TRANSIENT MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIKELY UNDER THE
HEAVIEST ACTIVITY.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

KED

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 71 56 77 53 / 30 40 40 60
HUTCHINSON 71 55 78 49 / 20 50 40 40
NEWTON 70 55 76 50 / 30 50 40 50
ELDORADO 71 56 76 53 / 50 50 40 60
WINFIELD-KWLD 71 56 76 55 / 30 30 40 70
RUSSELL 72 55 78 44 / 30 50 20 20
GREAT BEND 70 55 79 46 / 30 50 20 20
SALINA 72 55 78 46 / 20 60 40 30
MCPHERSON 71 55 77 48 / 20 60 40 40
COFFEYVILLE 72 54 77 57 / 40 30 40 70
CHANUTE 71 54 76 54 / 40 50 50 70
IOLA 71 53 75 54 / 30 60 50 70
PARSONS-KPPF 71 54 76 56 / 40 30 40 70

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WICHITA KS

330 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND A WEAK TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE ALOFT
HAS OVERCOME SEEMINGLY MODEST MOISTURE AND RESULTED IN SCATTERED
ELEVATED SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS FROM NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LATEST RUC HAS
THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS ACTIVITY WHICH LINGERS IT INTO THE 12Z-
15Z TIME FRAME ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. STRONGER ELEVATED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ALOFT MIGRATES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS WILL ALLOW DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS LATER
TODAY TO DEVELOP/MOVE EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...BEFORE RENEWED SURFACE BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. WHILE INTENSITY SHOULD
DECREASE BY SUNDAY EVENING...COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE ALONG
THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS. COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS STILL ON TAP FOR MONDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK TO INCREASE BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
WITH THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER TROF MOVING FROM
THE ROCKIES AND BECOMING A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION AND MOVEMENT/TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH FORECAST CONSENSUS SUPPORTS MODEST
CHANCE POPS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

KED

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2015

WINDS REMAIN LIGHTER AND MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THAN EARLIER THOUGHT.
STILL THINK SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND BE BREEZY
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MID-HIGH CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED AND WILL
BE PREVALENT THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
IMPACT SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT HAVE ONLY INCLUDED AT KICT AS
CONFIDENCE IT WILL IMPACT OTHER TERMINALS AT THIS TIME IS LOW.

SMOKE FROM EARLIER FIRES OVER THE FLINT HILLS STILL IMPACTS AT
KCNU WITH A CEILING BUT IT IS NOW OVER VFR.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...WILL
ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO PINPOINT TIMING AS THE FORECAST EVOLVES.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

KED

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 71 56 77 53 / 20 40 40 60
HUTCHINSON 71 55 78 49 / 20 50 40 40
NEWTON 70 55 76 50 / 20 50 40 50
ELDORADO 71 56 76 53 / 30 50 40 60
WINFIELD-KWLD 71 56 76 55 / 20 30 40 70
RUSSELL 72 55 78 44 / 30 50 20 20
GREAT BEND 70 55 79 46 / 30 50 20 20
SALINA 72 55 78 46 / 20 60 40 30
MCPHERSON 71 55 77 48 / 20 60 40 40
COFFEYVILLE 72 54 77 57 / 30 30 40 70
CHANUTE 71 54 76 54 / 30 50 50 70
IOLA 71 53 75 54 / 20 60 50 70
PARSONS-KPPF 71 54 76 56 / 30 30 40 70

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

1154 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL PUSH EAST TONIGHT
ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE
WEST. AFTER A DRY EVENING...SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AREA. THERE COULD EVEN BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME
TO A END ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES IN FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015

MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH HOW THE WEATHER WILL UNFOLD FOR
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HRRR RUC BRINGS SHOWERS IN THIS EVENING AND
THEN SUGGESTS MOST WESTERN LOCATIONS WILL END UP WET LATER
TONIGHT AS CONVECTION TRACKS THROUGH ILLINOIS. NAM...GFS AND HIGH
RES EURO ARE GENERALLY BACKING OFF ON ANY PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT...BUT STILL SUPPORT SHOWERS FOR MONDAY MORNING. WITH SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ARRIVING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MI...THERE
COULD BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL. LIFT IN THE DGZ IS STILL
SHOWN TO BE FAVORABLE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN FROM THE GFS. WILL KEEP
POPS ELEVATED FOR THIS EVENT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOWER.
SPC WRF WOULD KEEP THE SHOWERS GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS
TREND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

SUBSIDENCE IN THE DGZ ARRIVES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL ACT TO KEEP THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY PRECIPITATION LOW.
GIVEN THE DRY ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...MON NIGHT AND TUE
NIGHT SHOULD BE COOL. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FOR TUESDAY
DURING THE DAY GIVEN THE STRONG EXPECTED SUNSHINE WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015

THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST WILL FEATURE MILD SPRING WEATHER
ALONG WITH SOME CHCS FOR APRIL SHOWERS. WE EXPECT THAT MOST OF THE
PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY ASIDE FROM THE WED NIGHT/THU SYSTEM. WE DO
HAVE TO INCLUDE SOME LOW CHCS FOR A FEW SHOWERS FOR A COUPLE OF
OTHER PERIODS.

ONE OF THE BEST DAYS OF THE LONG TERM WILL COME AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD ON WED. WE WILL SEE SFC RIDGING MOVE BY TO OUR EAST AND
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD. RETURN FLOW WILL BRING MAX
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.

THE BEST CHC FOR RAIN WILL COME ON WED NIGHT/THU AS MENTIONED ABOVE.
IT APPEARS THAT WE SHOULD SEE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFT NE OUT OF THE
SW. THIS WAVE WILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
WORK WITH AS IT MOVES TO THE NE.

WE HAVE TRENDED THE FCST DRIER FOR THE THU NIGHT/FRI TIME
FRAME....WITH LEAVING JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN.
THE LATEST TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR THE THU FRONT TO CLEAR THE
AREA...AND THEN THE PROGRESSIVE WRLY FLOW JUST SOUTH OF THE NRN
BRANCH OF THE JET TO SETTLE IN. THIS SETUP COMBINED WITH THE UPPER
LOW CLOSING OFF ACROSS THE DESERT SW WILL KEEP THE AREA IN BETWEEN
THE SPLIT FLOW JET STRUCTURE WITHOUT ANY KIND OF APPRECIABLE
MOISTURE FEED.

WE WILL SEE A LITTLE BIT BETTER CHC OF RAIN COME IN FOR FRI NIGHT AS
A WAVE IN THE NRN STREAM TRIES TO DROP DOWN INTO THE AREA.
CONDITIONS WILL THEN DRY OUT FOR THE MOST PART NEXT WEEKEND. THE FRI
NIGHT SYSTEM WILL REMAIN MAINLY ACROSS NRN MI WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD ZIP BY SAT
MORNING...LEAVING COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015

NO CHANGES SINCE THE LAST UPDATE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME SPRINKLES...BUT A STEADIER BAND OF RAIN WITH
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK. SOUTH
WINDS WILL RAMP UP AS THE SHOWERS DRAW CLOSER.

THE SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REACH MKG AT AROUND 12Z
AND LAN AND JXN AROUND 15Z. THE PERIOD OF RAIN AND LOWER CIGS
SHOULD ONLY LAST ABOUT 3-5 HOURS AT ANY LOCATION AND A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT. A SMALL RISK OF A TSTM STILL
EXISTS AS WELL ON MONDAY MORNING... BUT THAT RISK IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

CONDITIONS WILL TURN VFR FAIRLY ABRUPTLY AFTER THE RAIN DEPARTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE A BREEZY DAY WITH SOUTHWEST SFC
WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS... TURNING WESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH SUNSET MONDAY EVENING.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015

STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT SOME WAVES AROUND 4 FEET
LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING NORTH OF HOLLAND. WILL GO WITH A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY.
THIS WILL ACT TO LIMIT THE WAVE HEIGHTS.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015

RIVERS THAT ARE NOT ALREADY FALLING WILL REACH THEIR CREST WITHIN
THE NEXT DAY. THE ROGUE BELOW ROCKFORD FELL BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE
LAST NIGHT SO THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN TRANSITIONED TO AN
ADVISORY. EIGHT RIVERS IN OUR AREA ARE ABOVE BANKFULL AT THIS TIME
AND A FEW WILL FALL BELOW BANKFULL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONE TO
TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING... AND THIS SHOULD HAVE VERY LITTLE TO NO NOTICEABLE IMPACT
ON RIVER LEVELS. A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED THIS
WEEK.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ846>849.

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...MJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

925 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015

.UPDATE...
00Z DTX SOUNDING WAS VERY DRY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER OF ONLY 0.39
INCHES. DO NOT SEE MUCH TO CHANGE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. THAT
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO EAT AWAY AT THE REMNANT MCV
SHOWERS...LEAVING NOTHING MORE THAN VIRGA AND SPRINKLES. 18Z
MODEL SUITE AND SUBSEQUENT RUNS OF THE RAP AND HRRR INDICATE VERY
LITTLE RAIN TONIGHT. HOWEVER...AS THE THETA-E SURGE MOVES OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 09Z-12Z A BETTER CHANCE OF A MEASURABLE
SHOWER.

.AVIATION...ISSUED 700 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015

JUST THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME VIRGA TONIGHT AS THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND LESSENS. STRONG SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL HAVE GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING ON
MONDAY. MVFR TO BORDERLINE IFR SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL
BE LIKELY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN 14Z AND 20Z. WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF THE TAFS GIVEN THE EXPECTED
ISOLATED NATURE TO THE THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST AND CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND 25 KNOTS.

FOR DTW... WIND WILL LESSEN EARLY THIS EVENING BUT CONTINUE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. NO OTHER CONCERNS UNTIL THE
WIND TURNS SOUTHWEST AND BECOMES GUSTY LATE MONDAY MORNING. THE WIND
SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM ON CEILING AT OR BELOW 5000 FT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 348 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015

SHORT TERM... LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AN OUTSTANDING EARLY SPRING AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO UNFOLD OVER
SE MICHIGAN AS MAX TEMPS MAKE A RUN AT 70 OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS.
THE THUMB SHORELINE WILL BE STUCK IN THE 40S FOR UNDER A WEAK LAKE
BREEZE WIND COMPONENT...BUT FULL SUNSHINE WILL MAKE THAT EASIER TO
TAKE. THE MILD AFTERNOON READINGS WILL THEN LEAD INTO AN EQUALLY
MILD NIGHT. BOTH A STEADY SOUTH WIND AND INCREASING CLOUDS WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES SETTLE SLOWLY INTO THE 40S OVERNIGHT.

THE PACE OF THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TOWARD EVENING AND
SPREAD SW TO NE OVER THE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL
ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE A WELL-DEFINED MCV MOVING IN FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AXIS. DYNAMIC FORCING FROM THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT BUT PRECIP
POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW. THERE ARE A FEW THINGS THAT SUPPORT LEANING
THE FORECAST TOWARD THE DRY END OF THE SPECTRUM TONIGHT. FIRST IS IR
SATELLITE INDICATING WARMING TOPS WITHIN THE MCV CIRCULATION AS THE
SYSTEM FOLLOWS A TYPICAL INVERSE DIURNAL CYCLE AND AS IT BECOMES
FURTHER DETACHED FROM THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS OVER THE PLAINS
THAT SUPPLIED THE INITIAL CONVECTION. THERE IS ALSO GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE DEPICTION OF THETA-E ADVECTION AROUND THE 700 MB
LEVEL BECOMING INCREASINGLY FRAGMENTED AS THE MOISTURE AXIS
REORGANIZES TO THE WEST AND CLOSER THE THE COLD FRONT OVER THE
MIDWEST DURING THE NIGHT. WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...A LOT OF DRY AIR
IN RESIDENCE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL EASILY EAT AWAY AT ANY HIGH
BASED SHOWER REMNANTS THAT MAKE IT THIS FAR NORTH. THE RESULT WILL
BE A PRONOUNCED PATTERN OF VIRGA ON RADAR WITH A SPRINKLE PERHAPS
REACHING THE GROUND MID TO LATE EVENING. LATER IN THE NIGHT...THE
LOW LEVEL PORTIONS OF THE WARM FRONT WILL GET BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR
THE INDIANA/OHIO BORDER. THIS WILL PRESENT A MORE CONVINCING CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TOWARD SUNRISE AND INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE-850
MB MOISTURE AXIS SURGES THROUGH SE MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM...

PROLONGED PERIOD OF S TO SWLY FLOW WILL PERSIST AND STRENGTHEN TO 15-
20KTS AND GUST AS HIGH AS 30KTS BY MONDAY AFTN AS THE SHORTWAVE OVER
THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS MORNING TRANSLATES EAST AND
LIFTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGHS WILL EASILY REACH THE MID 60S
NEARLY EVERYWHERE WITH COLD FROPA NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATE MONDAY.
TEMPS WILL POTENTIALLY REACH 70+ ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST,
INCLUDING THE DETROIT METRO AREA, BUT WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY
AFTN SHOWERS/TSTORMS MOVE IN.

SHOWERS TIED TO MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT
AND STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING ARE FORECAST TO LIFT INTO THE WESTERN
CWA DURING THE MORNING ON MONDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS BEING THE TRI-
CITIES WHERE FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED. A NOTEWORTHY CHANGE HAS THEN
BEEN OBSERVED IN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE NAM/ARW INDICATED THAT THE H7-H5
PLUME OF HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT WOULD EXIT EAST WELL IN ADVANCE OF
THE SURFACE FRONT, RESULTING IN A LARGELY DRY PASSAGE. HOWEVER,
SOLUTIONS HAVE SHOWN AN ADJUSTMENT ACROSS THE BOARD TOWARD MORE
FAVORABLE SUPERPOSITION OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE FRONTAL
FORCING. AS A RESULT, POPS WILL BE CARRIED THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND THUNDER HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST WITH A MUCH INCREASED
PROBABILITY OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NOW EXPECTED.

THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE READILY ACCESSIBLE BY ANY DEVELOPING
UPDRAFTS DUE TO FAVORABLE PEAK HEATING DURING FROPA. MOST UNSTABLE
PARCELS WILL ORIGINATE FROM THE SURFACE AND WILL CARRY CAPE OF 500-
1000 J/KG DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION.
HOWEVER, WARM MID-LEVELS WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT INTENSITY. THE LARGELY
STRAIGHT HODOGRAPH CHARACTERIZED BY 0-3KM BULK SHEAR OF 35 TO 40 KTS
WILL FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MULTICELL STRUCTURES
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS. MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL WIND FIELD
WILL LIMIT SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL, BUT AN ISOLATED THREAT COULD
EVOLVE GIVEN DIABATIC COOLING POTENTIAL WITHIN RATHER DRY
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.

HEALTHY DOSE OF COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL THEN DROP H85
TEMPS BACK NEAR 0C AND SFC TEMPS BACK TO NEAR 40F BY TUES MORNING.
DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE REINFORCED BY THE LAKE AGGREGATE. EXPECT
CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGHS 60-65.

DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS THAT DEFINED MIDWEEK WILL START TO ERODE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS RATHER
DISORGANIZED AT THE ONSET...BUT GAINES BETTER DEFINITION AS IT
PROGRESSES TOWARD THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS VARY WIDELY ON THIS
SYSTEM...BUT EURO SEEMS BEST BET AT THIS TIME. AMPLE WARM/MOIST AIR
PUSHES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND WILL ALLOW FOR A SOAKING
RAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY...WITH LINGERING SCATTERED
SHOWERS FRIDAY. PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY BY SATURDAY.

MARINE...

MODERATE SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND GUST TO 25 KNOTS
DURING THE DAY MONDAY...POSSIBLY WARRANTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
FOR MULTIPLE NEARSHORE ZONES. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON AFFECTING SOUTHERN LAKE HURON...ERIE...AND
SAINT CLAIR. GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTH OVER LAKE ERIE.
WINDS WILL THEN TURN NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE IN
THE DAY MONDAY WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING TRANQUIL TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE.......RBP
AVIATION.....RBP
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....JVC/DE
MARINE.......JVC

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

800 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015

THE RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY ON RADAR ARE MOSTLY ALOFT AS SFC
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE STILL 25-35 PCT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME SPRINKLES...BUT LOOK FOR A
STEADIER BAND OF RAIN WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST
TOWARD DAYBREAK.

THE SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REACH MKG AT AROUND 12Z
AND LAN AND JXN AROUND 15Z. THE PERIOD OF RAIN AND LOWER CIGS
SHOULD ONLY LAST ABOUT 4-5 HOURS AT ANY LOCATION AND A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT. A SMALL RISK OF A TSTM EXISTS
AS WELL ON MONDAY MORNING... BUT THAT RISK IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS.

CONDITIONS WILL TURN VFR FAIRLY ABRUPTLY AFTER THE RAIN DEPARTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE A BREEZY DAY WITH SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS
GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS... TURNING WESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ846>849.

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...MJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

720 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ADVANCING THROUGH THE WRN PLAINS WITH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO HUDSON BAY. AT THE SFC...A FRONT EXTENDED
THROUGH NW MN AND ERN SD FROM A LOW OVER NE MANITOBA. GUSTY SRLY
WINDS TO 30-35 MPH HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MN/WI/UPPER MI WITH A TIGHT
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND HIGH PRES OVER THE ERN CONUS.

TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC FRONT
ADVANCE TOWARD THE WRN LAKES...EXPECT SHRA COVERAGE TO INCREASE
ACROSS ERN MN INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY LATE THIS EVENING. MODELS
WERE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AND PCPN
THROUGH THE REGION...REFLECTING THE SLOWING TREND FROM THE LAST
SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES. WITH MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300 QVECTOR CONV
AND 800-600 MB FGEN AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH NMRS SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS UPPER MI...MAINLY FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 06Z-15Z.
ALTHOUGH ONLY MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG IS
FCST...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-45 KNOTS BRINGING 850 MB
DEWPOINTS NEAR 8C MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME ISOLD TSRA.

STRONG QVECTOR DIV AND DRYING IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD THROUGH UPPER MI
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH DROPPING 600-500 MB TEMPS AND
RESULTING NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC PROFILE AND MIXING HEIGHT TO NEAR 15K
FT...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THE STRONGEST WRLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE TYPICALLY FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
KEWEENAW WHERE GUSTS TO 40-45 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE HIGH SFC-
600MB LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
OR SPRINKLES/VIRGA DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH
MIXING DEPTH SHOULD ALSO DROP DEWPOINTS INTO THE TEENS WITH RH VALUES
TO NEAR 20 PCT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015

MON NIGHT MAY SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS LINGERING FROM MON...BUT WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE E OF THE AREA...SKIES WILL BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR. THIS WILL ALLOW INTERIOR W TEMPS TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING.

A SFC RIDGE MOVING OVER ON TUE WILL LEAD LIGHT WINDS AND SUNNY
SKIES. SHOULD BE A VERY DRY DAY WITH MIN RH VALUES AS LOW AS THE MID
TEENS INTERIOR W HALF...AND IN AND IN THE 20S ELSEWHERE AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE GREAT LAKES LAKESHORE AREAS. WIND GUSTS WILL BE IN THE
10-15MPH RANGE DURING PEAK HEATING/DRIEST CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE COOLEST OVER THE E IN THE 40S TO MID 50S DUE TO NW WINDS OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR AND WARMEST OVER THE INTERIOR WEST HALF IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S.

WED MAY BE A MORE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER DAY AS INCREASED SLY FLOW
BRINGS WARMER BUT STILL DRY AIR INTO THE REGION WITH GUSTY SLY WINDS
BETWEEN THE EXITING SFC HIGH AND AN APPROACHING SFC TROUGH. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INTERIOR W TO THE MID 50S E DOWNWIND
OF LAKE MI. SFC GUSTS TO AROUND 20MPH ARE EXPECTED. MIN RH VALUES
WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S OVER MUCH OF THE WEST HALF AND
INTERIOR E HALF...WITH RH VALUES IN THE 30S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND
LAKE MICHIGAN. THIRD DAY IN A ROW OF LOW RH VALUES COMBINED WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.

A WEAK SFC TROUGH STRETCHED BETWEEN A NRN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS CANADA AND A LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY TRANSIT
THE AREA ON THU. MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BOTH BE LIMITED...SO RAIN
CHANCES ARE VERY LOW AND TRENDING LOWER ON THU. TEMPS DO LOOK TO BE
A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S ON THU AND SFC RH WILL
BE HIGHER.

INCREASED UNCERTAINTY FRI INTO SUN AS MODELS CONTINUE THE IDEA OF
BRINGING A QUICK HITTING SHORTWAVE TO THE REGION FRI NIGHT AND A
DEEP TROUGH TO JUST W OF THE REGION LATE SUN. RAN CONSENSUS BLEND
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING.
GUSTY SSW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING FOR ALL SITES. SHRA
MOVING IN ALONG FRONT LATE TONIGHT SHOULD HELP LOWER CIGS DOWN TO
MVFR AT CMX LATE TONIGHT AND WILL STAY VFR AT SAW AND IWD. RECOVERY
TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY LATE MON MORNING AT CMX WITH DRYING BEHIND THE
FRONT. ALL SITES WILL BE GUSTY MON MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015

STRONG SRLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. WINDSPEEDS WILL
BE VERY DEPENDENT ON MEASURING HEIGHT GIVEN THE STABLE TEMP PROFILE
AND MARINE LAYER OVER THE LAKE. GALES ARE STILL EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS EVENING OVER THE EAST FOR THE HIGHER PLATFORMS. BEHIND THE
TROUGH...EXPECT W WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 20 TO 30KT WITH SOME GALE
FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING
WINDS DOWN UNDER 20 KNOTS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015

LOW CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL HELP KEEP STREAM
LEVELS IN CHECK AS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF REMAINING SNOW PACK MELTS
OFF THIS WEEK. ENSEMBLE RIVER GUIDANCE AND RIVER FORECASTS SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR THE SURGEON RIVER OF BARAGA AND HOUGHTON COUNTIES AND
ESCANABA RIVER TO APPROACH BANKFULL STAGE IN SOME SPOTS MID-
WEEK...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT THE HEADWATERS OF THESE RIVER
HAVE THE MOST SNOW. THE MICHIGAMME RIVER ALSO HAS GREATER SNOWPACK
IN THE HEADWATERS REGION OF THE PESHEKEE RIVER...BUT IT SHOULD TAKE
LONGER FOR THAT WATER TO REACH LOWER SECTIONS OF THE RIVER MORE
PRONE TO FLOODING. STILL...NOT SEEING ANYTHING SUGGESTING MORE THAN
ACTION STAGE POSSIBLE ON THE MICHIGAMME RIVER. OVERALL...NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ266.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
HYDROLOGY...TITUS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

1255 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND BRING FAIR WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MIDDAY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY AND MILD WEATHER FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY
AND BRING FAIR WX WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. FAIR WX WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE RIDGE STILL IN CONTROL OF
THE WX PATTERN.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
GIVEN LACK OF SFC OR ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND WEAK LIFT WITH THIS
FRONT. FAIR WX WILL RETURN BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015

FOR THE MOST PART THE FIRST FEW DAYS (TUE/WED) WILL BE QUIET WITH A
FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND PLEASANT MID SPRING TEMPERATURES. LATER
IN THE WEEK... A SERIES OF PACIFIC SYSTEMS WILL TRY TO DIG SOME SORT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL PROGRESS WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CONUS.
HOW THIS PLAYS OUT IS ANYONE`S GUESS. THE ISSUE IS PHASING OF THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM. FOR NOW IT SORT OF LOOKS LIKE MOST OF
THE SIGNIFICANT RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF MICHIGAN
INTO FRIDAY (NO PHASING). WE WOULD GET SOME SHOWERS THURSDAY /
FRIDAY AS ONE OF THESE UNPHASED WAVES PASS THROUGH THE AREA.

ONE THING TO WATCH IS WHAT HAPPENS TO THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET. IT
IS CURRENTLY WELL SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC....NEAR
20N. IT SEEMS TO WANT TO STAY THERE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TO
GET STRONG SYSTEM INTO MICHIGAN WE WOULD NEED A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
TO DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO TAP THAT ENERGY. CURRENTLY THAT IS DOES
NOT SEEM TO WANT TO HAPPEN. SO FOR NOW I WILL FEATURE MOSTLY LOW
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW LATER
MODEL RUNS PLAY THIS OUT. IF NOTHING ELSE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 712 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015

ONCE THE SUN HAS A CHANCE TO HEAT THE AIR ENOUGH TO START MIXING
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER... THE PATCHY FOG AT OUR EASTERN TAF SITES
WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT (BY 14Z). MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME CU
AROUND 4000 FT AGL TODAY BUT THE OUTGOING LONG WAVE RADIATION LOOP
FROM THE 07Z HRRR DOES NOT SHOW ANY CU OVER OUR CWA TODAY EVEN SO.
NO MATTER WHAT SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
FROM THE SOUTH.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1128 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015

WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY MAJOR
IMPACT TO MARINERS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP ON SUNDAY
AND BOATING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2015

MOST RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN ARE
PEAKING OR ON THE WAY DOWN AFTER THE 2 TO 3.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL
EXPERIENCED THIS PAST WEEK. THE WHITE RIVER AT WHITEHALL AND THE
ROGUE RIVER AT ROCKFORD ARE THE ONLY SITES ABOVE FLOOD LEVELS. THESE
SITES SHOULD BE IN A MINOR FLOOD STATE FOR A DAY OR TWO. MANY OTHER
SITES HAVE PEAKED BELOW FLOOD LEVEL. SITES ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN RECEIVED ONLY AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN... AND
ARE NOT EXPERIENCING HIGH RIVER LEVELS.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

1130 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 712 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1128 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 534 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015

RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN ARE RISING
AFTER THE 2 TO 3.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL EXPERIENCED OVER THE PAST 3
DAYS. THE WHITE RIVER AT WHITEHALL IS IN FLOOD WHILE THE ROGUE RIVER
AT ROCKFORD AND THE MUSKEGON RIVER AT CROTON ARE EXPECTED TO SOON
REACH FLOOD STAGE. THESE SITES SHOULD BE IN A MINOR FLOOD STATE FOR
A DAY OR TWO. MANY OTHER SITES WILL PEAK A LITTLE BELOW FLOOD LEVEL.
SITES ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN RECEIVED ONLY AN INCH TO AN
INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN... AND ARE NOT EXPERIENCING HIGH RIVER
LEVELS.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...MJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

713 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 712 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015

MINIMAL WIND AND WAVE ACTION IS ANTICIPATED TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER
SOUTH WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 534 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...LAURENS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON MS

755 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

.UPDATE... SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING IS
NOT PROLIFIC...ALTHOUGH GULF MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE INCREASING
THROUGH THE NIGHT. LATEST HRRR TRENDS ARE FOR THE MOST VIGOROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO HAVE A TOUGH TIME BECOMING UN-ANCHORED FROM
THE COAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A DAMPENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY IN THE ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET.
FINGER OF THE MOST INLAND-PENETRATING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
PROBABLY GET UP INTO THE PINE BELT OF SOUTHEASTERN MS DURING THE
NIGHT WHERE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK AROUND HBG CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. ELSEWHERE...STILL HAVE QUITE HIGH CONFIDENCE SHOWERS
WILL MATERIALIZE/INCREASE OVER THE BULK OF THE REGION MAINLY LATE
TONIGHT (ALTHOUGH ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 PERHAPS AS EARLY AS LATE
EVENING). THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND GRIDS WERE UPDATED TO REFLECT
CURRENT SPARSE RAIN TRENDING TO MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EVENING A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. /BB/

LATEST AND GREATEST OPERATIONAL MODEL SUGGESTIONS ARE STILL FOR
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN TOMORROW...BUT LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO CAUSE
MORE THAN VERY ISOLATED FLOODING ISSUES AT MOST. ONCE WE GET PAST
TOMORROW (AND ESPECIALLY INTO TUESDAY)...THE SATURATED GROUND WILL
BE MORE PRONE TO FLOODING FROM CONTINUED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FOR
THIS REASON OUR CURRENT HWO TACT OF WAITING UNTIL AFTER TOMORROW TO
ADVERTISE A FLOODING THREAT APPEARS ADEQUATE. /BB/

.AVIATION...FLIGHT CATS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 ARE GENERALLY IN THE
MVFR RANGE THIS EVENING DUE MAINLY TO LOW CEILINGS. EXPECT FLIGHT
CATS TO GRADUALLY WORSEN AND EXPAND NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS EVOLUTION WILL OCCUR AS SHOWERS INCREASE
AND EXPAND NORTH ACROSS THE REGION OVER THAT SAME TIME FRAME. IFR
CONDITIONS DUE MAINLY TO CEILINGS (AND OCCASIONALLY TO VIS IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS) WILL BECOME DOMINANT LATE TONIGHT...AND LIKELY NOT
TRENDING BETTER UNTIL 10 OR 11 AM TOMORROW. HOWEVER...WET
EXPECTATIONS TOMORROW MAY KEEP SOME SPOTS SUB-VFR ALL DAY.
ANTICIPATE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT THE SURFACE WITH
SPEEDS RANGING FROM 5 TO 15 MPH. /BB/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015/

DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A LENGTHY PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER REMAINS THE STORY THROUGH MOST OF THIS WORK WEEK. AGAIN...
THIS IT THANKS TO AN EASTWARD SLOW MOVING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...SEEN
ON SATELLITE OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO...AND AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE
SUPTROPICAL JET. THIS LOW ON ITS EASTWARD TREK WILL BE RESPONSIBLE
FOR A WARM FRONT...CURRENTLY MEANDERING ABOUT IN THE GENERAL VICINITY
OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR... LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. BEHIND THIS
WARM FRONT...AMPLE DEEP MOISTURE IS SURGING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA
AS DEW POINTS ARE QUICKLY BOUNCING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
60S...AND PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES FORECAST TO CLIMB TO 1.50 INCHES
AND GREATER INTO MONDAY.

THIS WARM FRONT HAS ALREADY BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR MAINLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AS
MORE PRONOUNCED DISTURBANCES ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE BEFORE
MENTIONED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.

RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS THE WARM
FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH WITH MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE
FORECAST AREA IN ITS WAKE. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF PRONOUNCED
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...
WITH ANOTHER FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DURING THIS TIME...PARTICULARLY MORE SO MONDAY AS OUR ENTIRE AIRMASS
IS EXPECTED BE QUITE MOISTENED...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS MY SOUTH WHERE
AMOUNTS RANGING BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES CAN`T BE RULED OUT HEADING INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. WHAT AMOUNTS FALL AND WHERE IT FALLS TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT COULD SET THE STAGE FOR WHAT WE SEE...IF ANY...IN THE
WAY OF POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...AS THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN SAID POTENTIAL AND THE EXACT
LOCATION OF IT SETTING UP. /19/

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER WET PERIOD
WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS
REGION. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT IN THE ATMOSPHERE
AS PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.6-1.9 INCHES THROUGH THE
WEEK. AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET KICKS IN JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON
TUESDAY...AND SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION...THIS
WILL ALL SET THE STAGE FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. SOME OF THE RAIN
COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. MODEL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY INDICATE
THAT THE REGION WILL SEE ABOUT 3 TO 6 INCHES(LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE)...WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS BEING LOCATED GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE. GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
EXTENDED THE ENTIRE AREA INTO AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FLOODING THROUGH
THE WEEK IN OUR GRAPHICS/HWO. WHILE THE WETTEST SOILS RIGHT NOW ARE
IN THE NORTHWEST DELTA...IF AMOUNTS UPWARDS OF 6 INCHES OCCUR IN THE
SOUTH...THIS WILL DEFINITELY LEAD TO SOME FLOODING ISSUES BY WEEKS
END.

ON FRIDAY...A SFC LOW WILL TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AND
DRAG A FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST TO THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF MY CWA. THIS
SHOULD CLEAR SOME RAIN FOR THE NORTHERN 1/3RD TO MAYBE 1/2 OF THE
REGION BRIEFLY FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES
IN THIS NEXT SYSTEM. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THE CLOSED LOW AND
DEEPER WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER(DOESNT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION UNTIL
MONDAY)AND EVENTUALLY PHASES INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE GFS
SHOWS MORE OF A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW AND CLOSED LOW WHEREAS
THE ECMWF INDICATES MORE OF AN OPEN TROUGH WITH A SFC LOW THAT
DEVELOPS FURTHER SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. THE CANADIAN IS A LITTLE BIT
OF A MIXTURE OF THE TWO IN SOME WAYS AS IT SHOWS MORE OF A DIGGING
TROUGH BUT IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AND BRINGS IT THROUGH OUR
REGION...CLEARING OUT THE RAIN...BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS
BEING SAID...THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO HOW THIS WEEK WILL END.
/28/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 67 76 65 78 / 84 93 55 70
MERIDIAN 66 76 65 78 / 90 96 64 72
VICKSBURG 67 77 65 77 / 79 89 52 66
HATTIESBURG 68 77 67 79 / 90 97 55 76
NATCHEZ 68 78 66 77 / 90 92 53 70
GREENVILLE 67 75 62 75 / 60 85 54 59
GREENWOOD 66 75 63 76 / 60 88 60 60

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

BB/19/28

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

636 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 415 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

Tonight:

Morning convective system certainly stabilized an already stable
boundary layer. Airmass has been slow to recover with considerable
cloud cover overspreading the region. However, still expect a line
of convection to roll through tonight, just arriving a bit later.
Attention is turned to the west as a shortwave trough rolls into the
Northern and Central High Plains. HRRR and NAM generate scattered
convection along the NE portion of the cold front. Current visible
satellite imagery indicates cumulus along the front is becoming
agitated so expect to see convection form soon. Activity then
expected to roll eastward. Modest MLCAPEs from 1000-1500J/kg and
30kt 0-6km shear should support some strong/possibly severe storms
to our west by the time the convection moves into our CWA after 03Z
the instability should have waned and convection weakened. A few
storms could produce some sub-severe hail and gusty winds believe
the main concern revolves around locally heavy rainfall. Some areas
could pick up over an inch of rain as the line of storms move
through. All of the precipitation should have exited the eastern CWA
by 12z Monday.

Monday - Tuesday:

Fairly quiet period marked by weak surface high pressure moving in
the wake of the departed cold front. Weak return flow on Tuesday
with little day-to-day temperature change with slightly above
average readings. No discernible affect on sensible weather other
than increasing clouds.

Wednesday/Wednesday night:

The current closed upper low now over northern Mexico is expected to
weaken as it lifts north-northeast through the Central Plains and
CWA. While there should be decent moisture lifted northward with
this feature minimal instability will limit amount of thunder. Given
that the operational models have been generating a similar solution
believe 30-40 PoPs are warranted for scattered convection.

Thursday - Sunday:

Roll of the dice as to how weather will evolve from Thursday through
Sunday. Not especially fond of the blended model approach of carpet
bombing chance PoPs in every period. The medium range models drop a
deep upper trough into the Desert Southwest and then cut it off.
Models typically are challenged significantly with these features
initially. They tend to lift them out too soon and too far east. Will
be interesting to see how this system is handled going forward.
Difficult trying to time any weak impulse ejected from this system
within the downstream southwesterly flow. For now will handle this
with low chance PoPs with above average temperatures.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

Ceilings will continue to gradually improve as MVFR stratus lifts
northward this evening, then will likely drop to MVFR again tonight
as showers and storms associated with a southeastward moving cold
front move into the region. Ceilings should stick around 2-3 kft as
storms move through, but visibilities could briefly drop below 3 SM
during periods of heavier rain. Storms are expected to impact all
TAF sites between 06z and 12z Monday, then will exit to the
southeast leaving behind VFR conditions and breezy north winds.

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Laflin

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

419 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 418 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

Tonight - Sunday Night:

A fairly active period as first a weak mid level shortwave tracks
ene out of CO as isentropic lift/warm air advection from 300K-310K
surface expands/increases across KS into MO. This mostly a
reflection of the nocturnal low-level jet ramping up and veering to
the southwest. The sputtering elevated convection over southwest KS
likely in response to the aforementioned h7 shortwave and isentropic
ascent. Have patterned tonight`s PoPs from last several HRRR runs
which is faster and further east with the precipitation. Seems
reasonable as the models typically underplay how far downstream warm
advection convection can extend. Elevated instability looks rather
puny and only a few hundred J/kg so will go with isolated thunder.
Small sub-severe hail possible.

First wave of convection should lift northeast in the morning with
maybe a sputtering second area following close on its heels. How the
morning convection plays out and how much the clouds clear out will
determine the strength of the stronger convection tied to the cold
front. What is interesting is how the NAM generates pre-frontal
convection along an instability axis with progged MLCAPEs in excess
of 2000 J/kg. Since there have been at least 3 consecutive model
runs generating this convection can`t totally dismiss it. The
current forecast is constructed with the idea that pre-frontal
convection will form late afternoon or early evening across
northeast KS and northwest MO with the cold front generated
convection eventually dropping southeast and merging. So, highest
PoPs will be across the northwest 1/2 of the CWA in the evening and
then allow the squalline to steadily translate southeast. The
evening convection could contain some marginally severe hail due to
the moderate instability and 30-40kt 0-6km shear which could support
sufficient updraft strength.

Monday - Tuesday:

Looks like we`ll be in between minor shortwave ridging aloft
shifting across the Northern Plains while a closed upper low lifts
northeast from West TX. Will maintain a dry forecast although there
is some concern that increasing warm air advection and weak lift
tied to the upper low opening up as it heads our way could force us
to add PoPs in later forecasts. Otherwise, dry surface high pressure
on Monday with northeast winds should grant us highs in the 65-70
range. Tuesday should see at least increasing high clouds which will
negate any boundary layer warming so max temperatures should keep
highs in the 60s.

Wednesday - Saturday:

A very uncertain period as the medium range models bounce around
with their solutions. The left overs from the closed upper low will
linger on Wednesday so will use low end chance PoPs to handle any
scattered light convection. Instability looks poor so thunder
chances will be low.

The rest of the period will be handled using a blended model
approach. As the latest GFS is now trending closely with the last
couple of runs of the ECMWF in handling the deep upper trough
tracking through the Rockies am anticipating the next forecast or
the one thereafter going towards drier conditions. The ECMWF has
trended towards developing a cut-off low over the Southern Rockies
and this solution is looking more and more likely, which would mean
delaying PoPs and above average temperatures.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

Cloud cover to the south will continue to make its way north over the
next few hours with ceilings around 10 kft. Will see convective
activity develop overnight ahead of a low-level jet through Sunday
morning. Initial isolated activity will commence near 08Z with
prevailing thunderstorms after 10Z. Ceilings will likely stay VFR as
convection will remain elevated Sunday morning. However, could see
periodic reductions in visibility as thunderstorms move through the
area. SSE winds will gradually become southerly, with gusts up to 20
kts expected Saturday afternoon and then Sunday morning with
developing convective activity. Will see improving conditions late in
the forecast period, with additional thunderstorms expected along a
cold front Sunday evening.

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Welsh

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

1243 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2015

JUST PUBLISHED A RATHER "COSMETIC" UPDATE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS (THROUGH 12Z/7AM)...WITH VERY LITTLE NOTICEABLE
CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR THE MOST PART...THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD FEATURE NO WORSE THAN MOSTLY CLEAR-PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES UNDER PRIMARILY PASSING THIN HIGH CLOUDS. BREEZES
WILL AVERAGE 5-10 MPH FROM THE SOUTH...AS OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP NO LOWER THAN THE 39-44 RANGE FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA. REALLY THE ONLY POSSIBLE "CAVEAT" THROUGH SUNRISE
INVOLVES WHETHER OR NOT SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD
POSSIBLY BRUSH INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST EDGES OF THE CWA (NAMELY THE
ROOKS COUNTY KS AREA) SOMETIME AFTER 4 AM OR SO. WHILE THIS IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION...DID NOT FEEL THERE WAS ENOUGH EVIDENCE IN
THE LATEST MODEL DATA (INCLUDING RAP 13/HRRR) TO "RUIN" THE
CURRENTLY-DRY OVERNIGHT FORECAST...AS CERTAINLY THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR SPOTTY RAIN LATE SHOULD FOCUS AT LEAST SLIGHTLY WEST
AND/OR SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA.

MADE NO CHANGES TO THE POST-SUNRISE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT IT
STILL APPEARS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD GET THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS DRY...WITH ANY LIMITED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL PRIMARILY FOCUSED WITHIN SOUTHERN AND/OR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2015

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A FEW CIRRUS IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE SOUTH
DURING THE NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. WITH THE SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE. WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE THERE WILL BE
AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY. MUCAPE INCREASES TO NEARLY 1500 J/KG IN
THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA. HAVE BACKED OFF A LITTLE BRINGING
THE PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. HAVE KEPT A LITTLE IN
THE FAR SOUTH IN THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT THAT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2015

UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NO WIDESPREAD RAINS ON THE HORIZON...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST DUE
TO LOW HUMIDITIES AND STRONG WINDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE...EVEN ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MOST DAYS IN THE PERIOD. THE NORMAL IS 60 TO 65 FOR HIGH TEMPS
AND AROUND FREEZING FOR LOW TEMPS.

PATTERN-WISE...A ZONAL FLOW RETURNS WITH PERIODIC WAVES MOVING
THROUGH. THE NORMAL RESULTING WEATHER WITH THIS TYPE PATTERN IS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER...ALTHOUGH PERIODIC
WAVES BRING FRONTS THROUGH THAT ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUS
A FEW PLACES MAY GET SOME RAIN ON AND OFF.

MODELS...THE EUROPEAN AND GFS ARE IN PHASE THE FIRST FEW DAYS...BUT
AFTER WEDNESDAY THE GFS DEVELOPS SYSTEMS FASTER. PREFER THE TIMING
OF THE SLOWER EUROPEAN BASED ON EXPERIENCE AND PATTERN RECOGNITION.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD...BUT EXPECT CLOUD BASES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP
CEILINGS VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE WIND WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...WITH THE FOCUS FOR
WIND SHEAR BEING FURTHER WEST NEAR KEAR. THE AXIS OF STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WEST OF KGRI AND HENCE WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR OUT OF THE KGRI TAF.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...EDDY
AVIATION...WESELY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

330 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS VA AND NC
THROUGH THIS EVENING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW AND BUILD
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH SUN...BEFORE DRIFTING
OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1050 AM SATURDAY...

A LEAD COLD FRONT HAD CLEARED ALL BUT BRUNSWICK COUNTY IN NC...WITH
A TRAILING 1019 MB SFC RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE NW NC PIEDMONT.
MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY FRONT WAS ANALYZED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
VA...AND THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND ACROSS CENTRAL
NC WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IT WILL INSTEAD SIMPLY MARK THE LEADING EDGE OF A PARENT...
1027 MB CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE IL/IN BORDER THAT
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH EARLY SUN. THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST REPRESENTED THE CLEARING WELL PER RECENT SATELLITE
TRENDS AND NEAR TERM MOISTURE PROGS...WHICH SUGGESTS THE BACK EDGE
OF THE MAINLY MID-HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL CLEAR THE TRIANGLE BETWEEN
NOON AND 1 PM...AND THE COASTAL PLAIN 2-3 HOURS LATER. SOME
ADDITIONAL BUT THIN CIRRUS WILL STREAM EAST IN WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...FROM THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
RECENT HRRR AND RAP FORECASTS SUPPORT PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED HIGHS IN
THE 70S. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 30S COURTESY OF
GENERALLY NORTH TO NNW FLOW AROUND THE LEAD RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
PIEDMONT...AND EVEN SOME 20S PROBABLE OVER THE NW PIEDMONT...THE AIR
WILL FEEL MUCH LESS HUMID THAN RECENT DAYS

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND...WHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
GRADUALLY MOVES EAST...AT LEAST THE WESTERN END OF HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. PLAN
VIEW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS AND BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED
MOISTURE IN OVERALL SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF
SUNDAY...WITH K INDICES NEAR ZERO OR BELOW. OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...THE
NAM PROVIDES FOR MORE OF A RETURN FLOW WITH FASTER EASTWARD PROGRESS
OF LOW PRESSURE OUT OF THE SOUTH PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...RESULTING IN JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUDS TOWARD THE IMMEDIATE TRIAD AND EVEN VERY
MINOR QPF. THE GFS...ON THE OTHER HAND...IN MUCH SLOWER IN THE
EASTWARD PROGRESS OF LOW PRESSURE...AND DRIER IN THE LOW LEVELS AT
LEAST THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SOME SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH REGARD TO THE MOISTURE RETURN AND ITS INFLUENCE ON LOW
TEMPERATURES THEN...AND FOR THIS FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
SLOWER SOLUTION DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND THE
SHARPENING RIDGE AXIS THAT EVEN THE NAM FORECASTS OVER THE CAROLINAS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S...LIKELY AROUND 40 KTDF TO KLHZ NORTH...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S...A LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY OVERALL WITH 1000-
850MB THICKNESSES A FEW METERS LOWER. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL LIKELY BE QUITE VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE 40S. -DJF

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM SATURDAY...

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY... SETTING UP
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE. ENERGY KICKING OUT
FROM THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT... CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY... WEDGING INTO
THE AREA INTO THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CONUS BECOMES
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED ON WEDNESDAY... WITH A DEEP TROUGH MOVING IN
TO THE WEST... BEFORE MODELS DEPICT A SPLIT FLOW REGIME DEVELOPING
ON THURSDAY... WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL US. MODEL RUNS AT
THIS POINT HAVE NOT LOCKED ON A CONSISTENT SOLUTION FOR THIS
ENERGY... BUT AS IT MOVES EASTWARD... RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY
INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD... HIGHS GENERALLY LOW
70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S... BUT THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AND
RESULTANT CLOUDINESS AND PRECIP COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM SATURDAY...

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE OH
VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GENERALLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
VEER FROM NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON TO NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AND
EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY ON SUN...AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD.
PASSING CIRRUS IN WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL FILL AN OTHERWISE CLEAR SKY.

OUTLOOK: THE CONCURRENT APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH AND
A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CULMINATE IN A GOOD CHANCE OF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN MON NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUE...WITH
SOME SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LINGERING AT FAY TROUGH TUE NIGHT...AND A
REPEAT PERFORMANCE PROBABLE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...DJF/RAH
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...RAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

200 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1050 AM SATURDAY...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM SATURDAY...

MONDAY...A WEAK RIDGE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. THE RAIN SHOULD STAY LARGELY TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST THROUGH THE DAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES...ALTHOUGH
SOME RAIN MAY MOVE INTO THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. -RAH

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM SATURDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN
OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM SHORE. A COLD FRONT
WILL EXTEND SSW THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID WEST FROM THE
PARENT LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL CANADA AT 00Z TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL
BECOME MORE WEST-EAST ORIENTED OVERNIGHT AS IT DISCONNECTS SOMEWHAT
FROM THE PARENT LOW. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD...ADVECTING WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION. AS FAR AS RAIN CHANCES GO...THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE
WETTER THAN THE 00Z GFS SOLUTION OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER BEST CHANCES
EARLY ON WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS THE WEST. EXPECT THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NC TO BE TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FROPA. A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD PUSH SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL NC TUESDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN BEHIND IT. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...AND
GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE
AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTED IN BEHIND AND TIMING/PROGRESSION OF THE
WARM FRONT. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND ON THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD...AND
CONTINUE RIDGING INTO THE AREA AFTER IT MOVES OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY.
THE MODELS REALLY START TO DISAGREE WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP DURING
THIS TIME...WITH THE ECMWF WETTER THAN THE GFS...THUS CONFIDENCE IS
NOT ALL THAT HIGH. FOR NOW...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO REMAIN DRY WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING RAINFALL CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S.

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM SATURDAY...

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...DJF/RAH
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...RAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

1052 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1050 AM SATURDAY...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM SATURDAY...

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM SATURDAY...

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...
AND BEYOND AT LEAST INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TOWARD KFAY AND KCTZ EARLY THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...BEHIND A COLD FRONT BASICALLY THROUGH CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA AS OF THIS WRITING...SURFACE WINDS TURN NORTHERLY AND
SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FEW NORTHERLY GUSTS
IN THE TEENS KNOTS WITH MIXING TODAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
RETREAT TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.

THE NAM MODEL...WITH A FASTER MOIST RETURN FLOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...
SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE TRIAD BY 12Z MONDAY.
THE GFS IS VERY DRY STILL IN THE LOW LEVELS AT THAT TIME...SO FOR
THIS WRITING CONSIDER A LOW PROBABILITY OF LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE TRIAD
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND
PRECIPITATION OCCURS OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BASED ON THE
LATEST GFS MODEL...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...DJF/RAH
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...DJF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

424 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK. ANOTHER FRONT WILL AFFECT
THE AREA BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM SATURDAY...BAND OF CONVECTION FIRED UP ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN CWA AND IS NOW MOVING INTO THE PAMLICO SOUND AND
OFFSHORE. ONCE THIS ACTIVITY IS OFFSHORE...THE CONVECTIVE THREAT
SHOULD END BUT REGIONAL COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWING ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE W/SW. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER MOST
OF THE CWA THROUGH 12Z...THEN TRANSITIONING TO THE COAST THROUGH
ABOUT 15Z. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OFFSHORE BY
MIDDAY WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR SLOWLY FILTERING INTO THE REGION
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES INLAND AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE NEAR THE COAST
AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL AFTER WARMING A FEW
DEGREES AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM SATURDAY...NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR OVERTAKES THE REGION
TONIGHT AS AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 344 AM SAT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER AREA. SEE SOME
DISCREPANCIES LATER IN THE WEEK AS TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWEST.
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY
MONDAY. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AREA TUESDAY AND WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN POPS AS IT APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES...BUT EXPECT THE FRONT TO PASS OFFSHORE LATE IN THE
DAY...THEN HANG UP ALONG THE COAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WEST OF THE AREA. CURRENT ECMWF SOMEWHAT STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS RUN
AS IT DEEPENS LOW OFF THE COAST MORE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DIFFERENCES CROP
UP IN THE SURFACE FIELDS LATER IN THE WEEK. ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON
STRENGTH OF COASTAL TROUGH/LOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY SO HAVE EASED
OFF A BIT ON POPS IN THAT TIME PERIOD. SYSTEM APPROACHES AREA FRIDAY
WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES INTO THE WEEKEND.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...LOWER
70S BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM SATURDAY...PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN LIMITED THUS
FAR...BUT 3KM HRRR STILL SHOWS RAIN BLOSSOMING...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST TOWARD MORNING. WILL KEEP A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS JUST
AHEAD AND BEHIND FRONT FROM ROUGHLY 09Z TO 14Z THIS MORNING AS THE
COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE SLOWLY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY
MIDDAY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM SAT...VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA TUESDAY WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY
PRECIPITATION. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 425 AM SATURDAY...WHILE WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF OVER THE
SOUNDS AND FAR NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN LEGS...STILL SEEING REPORTS
OF GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20S AT DIAMOND BUOY WITH SEAS AT 7 FEET.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL LEGS
UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING AND MAY BE NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR ROUGH
SEAS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND STRONG COLD FRONT...WINDS
SHOULD SUBSIDE FAIRLY QUICKLY TONIGHT...NORTHEAST AT 15 KNOTS OR
LESS WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FEET CENTRAL WATERS AND 2 TO 3
FEET ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH FLOW BECOMING EASTERLY
THEN SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL WATERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH
CONDITIONS FALLING BELOW SCA CRITERIA. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO
THE NORTH GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH SCA
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS.

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ152-
154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
AMZ156.

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CCG
AVIATION...CCG/CTC
MARINE...CCG/CTC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

318 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING ACCOMPANIED
BY A FEW SHOWERS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW AND BUILD INTO THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWING INTO THE MIDWEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM FRIDAY...SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AS CONVECTION MOVES INTO A RELATIVELY STABLE AND DRY
ATMOSPHERE. HAVE FURTHER RATCHETED BACK ON TIMING...COVERAGE AND
STRENGTH OF OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH THE ODD THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WE ARE NOW EXPECTING MORE IN THE WAY OF
LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:

BASED ON LATEST TRENDS HAVE FURTHER DELAYED TIMING OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PROGRESSION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED
LIGHT ACTIVITY IS ONLY NOW MAKING ITS WAY INTO OUR FAR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AND DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE ANYTHING MAKE
IT TO THE COAST BEFORE ABOUT MIDNIGHT. DEWPOINTS ARE ON THE LOW
SIDE AND MUCH OF THE CWA IS NOW WITHIN THE MORE STABLE SECTOR OF
THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION SO CONFIDENCE IN THE SEVERE THREAT IS
LOWER THAN EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.LATEST HRRR KEEPS BULK OF
ACTIVITY WELL INLAND. HAVE MADE APPROPRIATE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WITH ALL THIS IN MIND. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

BETWEEN THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF THE SEA BREEZE AN THE SLOWER
THAN EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT FORCED CONVECTION THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS DIMINISHED. SAT IMAGERY SHOWS MINIMAL
DEVELOPMENT IN CU FIELDS DESPITE THE WARM AND HUMID AFTERNOON.
SIMILARLY THE ISOLATED ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST MAY HAVE TROUBLE
SURVIVING INTO OUR REGION DUE TO THE DRYNESS INDICATED IN THE LCL-
LFC LAYER. BUT JUST IN CASE HAVE BEEN CARRYING LOW POPS OVER
WESTERN ZONES BEGINNING AROUND 21Z. THIS IS A BIT QUICKER THAN THE
WRF BUT SLOWER THAN THE NOW OUTLYING GFS. THE MOST UNCERTAINTY HAS
COME THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE HIGH RES MODELS SUCH AS THE RUC AND
THE HRRR. SUCH GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN ANY AND ALL
PREFRONTAL PRECIPITATION DETERIORATE COMPLETE. TAKE THE HRRR FOR
EXAMPLE...NOT A DROP OF RAIN UNTIL SOME FAIRLY BENIGN LOOKING
SHALLOW CONVECTION ENTERS OUR AREA...AT 04Z! CURRENT FORECAST IS
NOT SO BOLDLY DRY BUT JUST RECENTLY NOTICED THAT THE PREFRONTAL
TROUGH DEPICTED ON THE WRF IS MUCH TOO STRONG COMPARED TO REALITY.
SO THE TREND STARTED THIS MORNING OF SLOWING DOWN TIMING MAY VERY
WELL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH JUST A SLOW RAMPING UP OF POPS
FROM NW TO SE...BUT THE BULK OF THE RAIN COMING LATE OVERNIGHT AND
GENERALLY SHALLOW CONVECTION WITH JUST ISOLATED THUNDER. THE
REMAINING SEVERE THREAT IS OVER FAR INLAND ZONES WITH ANY
PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP OR ADVECT IN FROM THE
WEST...REPRESENTING A LOW END DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...A ZONAL MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS A MEANDERING CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGHING MAKE THEIR RESPECTIVE MOVES EAST. MODEST RIDGING
DEVELOPS EARLY MONDAY AHEAD OF THESE SYSTEMS BEFORE A BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL SERVE TO INCREASE PWS FROM A PALTRY 0.15 INCHES TO WELL OVER
AN INCH BY TUESDAY MORNING.

AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED BASICALLY OVERHEAD
SUNDAY THEN MOVE WELL OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN EJECTING VORT...NOT THEM MAIN SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL. WITH THE RIDGE IN
PLACE...MODELS SEEM TO HAVE DELAYED THE MOISTURE SLIGHTLY AND THIS
IS REFLECTED IN THE LATEST FORECAST. THE ONLY CHANGE IN THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS TO RAISE HIGHS FOR MONDAY WITH THE LOWER
POPS.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...A RATHER ACTIVE SCENARIO FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AN ELONGATED AND COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY A WEDGE SCENARIO FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WEAK
RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT. TRENDED POPS DOWN FOR THESE DAYS ALTHOUGH
THEY CANNOT BE REMOVED COMPLETELY AS SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT IS NOTED
IN THE GUIDANCE. POPS TREND BACK UP SLIGHTLY FOR THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH THE APPROACH OF A
DECENT TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURE REGIME LOOKS
VERY STABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...WILL GO WITH MAINLY LIGHT CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH NO MENTION OF THUNDER...THROUGH DAYBREAK
SAT. THE INLAND TERMS WILL SEE THE CFP PRIOR TO SUNRISE...WITH THE
COASTAL TERMS TAKING UP TO 4 TO 6 HRS THERE-AFTER. LOOK FOR
ACTIVE SW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KT...VEER TO THE N AROUND 10 KT AFTER
THE CFP...AND FURTHER VEER TO THE NE AT 10 TO 15 KT BY LATE
MORNING THRU SAT AFTN. COULD SEE A FEW HRS OF LIGHT RAIN OR
SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE CFP...BUT LOOK FOR
QUICKLY IMPROVING CEILINGS BY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR EACH MORNING FROM BR. POSSIBLE
MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING DURING TUE INTO WED DUE TO INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES FROM AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD IN A PRE-FRONTAL
FLOW REGIME. THE APPROACH OF THE BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT WILL
TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT LEADING TO A SMALL INCREASE IN WINDS
AND SEAS. WHILE THIS MAY INTRODUCE 5 FT SEAS ALONG THE OUTER
PORTIONS OF SOME OF THE FORECAST ZONES THE LARGE COAST- PARALLEL
COMPONENT SHOULD SPONSOR ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT IN NEARSHORE VS
OFFSHORE WAVES TO PRECLUDE A SCEC.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR SOME TIME
SUNDAY WITH SPEEDS OF 15-20 KNOTS. BY SUNDAY EVENING THE FLOW WILL
DIMINISH AND VEER TO THE EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. BY
LATE MONDAY MORNING A SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE.
SPEEDS AT THIS TIME WILL BE 10-15 KNOTS. THE FLOW WILL VEER FURTHER
BY TUESDAY MORNING TO SOUTHERLY. SEAS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE 2-4
FEET WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OCCURRING SUNDAY AND LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW EARLY WILL SWITCH TO THE
NORTH...NORTHEAST BY DAYS END TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA AND OFFSHORE. THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
WEDNESDAY AS A WEDGE SCENARIO STRENGTHENS. OVERALL WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE 10-15 KNOTS...LOWER TUESDAY AND HIGHER WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...REK/MBB
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

215 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS LINGERING INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW AND BUILD INTO THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWING INTO THE MIDWEEK.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST OFF
THE COAST BY 12 UTC WITH LINGERING EARLY MORNING SHOWERS.
AFTER THE PRECIPITATION CLEARS SATURDAY MORNING...DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN THE 74 TO
78 DEGREE RANGE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30% RANGE LATE IN THE DAY.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...WETTISH EXTENDED PERIOD AS UPSTREAM UPPER
TROUGHING ALLOWS GULF MOISTURE TAPS TO EJECT NE INTO THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FIRST IMPULSE GUIDED FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA STREAMS NE IN AN ELEVATED PRECIPITABLE WATER
PLUME AS HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS FROM THE NORTH TO INSTIGATE AN
EARLY SPRING OVER-RUNNING WEDGE PATTERN INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH EDGES EAST OVER THE VALLEY
OVERSPREADING GULF VAPOR CONTENT THURSDAY AS THE WEDGE ERODES IN
WET AND ISENTROPIC OMEGA. EXTENDED PERIOD CULMINATES INTO
A RAINY FRIDAY AS THE AMPED UPPER TROUGH FORCES A COLD FRONT
ACROSS FORECAST AREA DAY 7. WPC QPF DEPICTIONS FOR DAYS 4-5 AND
6-7 YIELD BASIN AVERAGE COLLECTIVE RAIN TOTALS OF 1-2.5 INCHES.
PLENTIFUL CLOUDS IN BALMY SW FLOW ALOFT AND WEDGE PATTERN THIS
PERIOD RESULTS IN MAXIMUMS PRIMARILY 70S...MINIMUMS UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...WILL GO WITH MAINLY LIGHT CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH NO MENTION OF THUNDER...THROUGH DAYBREAK
SAT. THE INLAND TERMS WILL SEE THE CFP PRIOR TO SUNRISE...WITH THE
COASTAL TERMS TAKING UP TO 4 TO 6 HRS THERE-AFTER. LOOK FOR
ACTIVE SW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KT...VEER TO THE N AROUND 10 KT AFTER
THE CFP...AND FURTHER VEER TO THE NE AT 10 TO 15 KT BY LATE
MORNING THRU SAT AFTN. COULD SEE A FEW HRS OF LIGHT RAIN OR
SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE CFP...BUT LOOK FOR
QUICKLY IMPROVING CEILINGS BY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BE SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THEN NORTHEAST TO EAST
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS
EARLY IN THE MORNING BEFORE DROPPING DOWN TO 15 KNOTS BY THE
EVENING. ON SUNDAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND WINDS ARE
EXPECT TO PEAK AGAIN AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
DROPPING BACK TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE
RUNNING AROUND 3 TO 5 FEET SATURDAY MORNING WITH A FALL TO 2 TO 4
FEET SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW. WITH THE NORTHEAST
FLOW INCREASING THE SEAS WILL INCREASE BACK TO 3 TO 4 FEET ON
SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...A BUMPY MARINE ENVIRONMENT MON-WED AS A
MODERATE ONSHORE WIND FLOW KEEPS SEAS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...AND
OVERALL 3-5 FEET. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY PLAGUE THE WATERS
WITH RAIN AND OCCASIONAL REDUCED VISIBILITY AND ISOLATED TSTMS
AS GULF MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES SPREAD NE OVER THE 0-20 NM
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
FOR 6 FOOT SEAS OFFSHORE...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND
INTERACTS WITH AN OFFSHORE COASTAL TROUGH.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRH
NEAR TERM...REK/MBB
SHORT TERM...DRH
LONG TERM...MJC
AVIATION...DCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

1256 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND SWEEP ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER MONDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1235 AM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT MAKING VERY SLOW PROGRESS
ACROSS THE STATE...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE TRIAD REGION.
CONVECTION HAD A HARD TIME GETTING ITS ACT TOGETHER THIS EVENING
AND HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. RADAR DOES INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS STARTING TO DEVELOP WEST
OF GOLDSBORO. LATEST RUN OF THE 3KM HRRR STILL SHOWS PRECIPITATION
BLOSSOMING AROUND 08Z OR 09Z...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND
CONTINUING INTO MID-MORNING...HAVE RAMP POPS BACK UP TO LIKELY
NEAR THE COAST AFTER 09Z.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRIDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY COAST IN WAKE OF
FRONT THEN CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST LATER IN MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF REGION. CAA NOT OVERLY
STRONG BEHIND FRONT AND WITH SOME SUN SHOULD SEE NEAR NORMAL HIGHS
IN LOW TO MID 70S SW TO MID 60S NE.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT AFTER THAT THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. WPC
SURFACE GRAPHICS MATCH UP BETTER WITH ECMWF SO WILL USE IT FOR THE
LONG TERM FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THIS
WEEKEND WILL SHIFT EAST MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WINDS
BECOME SOUTHEAST MONDAY THEN SOUTHWEST TUESDAY. COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST IN THE EVENING
AND BECOME STATIONARY TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. CHANCE POPS RETURN FRIDAY AS THE FRONT
TO THE SOUTH MOVES BACK NORTH ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING SHARP
UPPER TROF.

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM SATURDAY...PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN LIMITED THUS
FAR...BUT 3KM HRRR STILL SHOWS RAIN BLOSSOMING...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST TOWARD MORNING. WILL KEEP A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS JUST
AHEAD AND BEHIND FRONT FROM ROUGHLY 09Z TO 14Z THIS MORNING AS THE
COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE SLOWLY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY
MIDDAY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...VFR/DRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS TUESDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST TUESDAY EVENING.
VFR/DRY CONDITIONS RETURN WED. LIGHT EAST WINDS SUNDAY BECOME
SOUTHEAST MONDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN
NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM SATURDAY...HAVE DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
OVER THE PAMLICO SOUND AND FAR SOUTHERN WATERS BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL WATERS
NORTH OF OCRACOKE...ESPECIALLY NEAR DIAMOND BUOY AND DUCK WITH
GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FEET BUT
WITH SOME 6 FT SEAS FOR THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW TO N TOWARD DAYBREAK. COULD BE A
PERIOD OF 15-20 KT N/NE WINDS IN WAKE OF FRONT SAT MORNING THEN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH INTO THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED SCA SAT MORNING CENTRAL WATERS FOR POSSIBLY SOME
LINGERING 6 FT SEAS THEN SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FEET LATE
SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST MONDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL VEER FURTHER TO SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST AND CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY. WIND SPEEDS FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS. HOWEVER
WINDS FORECAST TO BUILD TO 4-6 FEET TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY IN THE
WATERS FROM OREGON INLET TO CAPE LOOKOUT.

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ152-
154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
AMZ156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
AMZ150.

SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...CTC/HSA
MARINE...CTC/DAG/HSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

932 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

UPPER TROUGH/WAVE APPROACHING THE FA WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER
AND RADAR RETURNS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LOW LEVEL
ATMOSPHERE LIKELY TOO DRY FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP...AND ANY ISOLD
SPRINKLE THAT MIGHT OCCUR PROBABLY NOT WORTH MENTIONING.
HOWEVER...DID INCREASE SKY GRIDS FOR THIS FEATURE. OTHER FORECAST
PARAMETERS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGE REQUIRED.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

COLD FRONT ENTERING ERN FCST AREA ATTM NR A
WARROAD...BAGLEY...TO ELBOW LAKE LINE. SATELLITE SHOWS SOME BEST
CU DEVELOPMENT JUST EAST OF FCST AREA FROM NORTH OF AITKIN MN
THROUGH BRAINERD TO BENSON MN THEN INTO WATERTOWN AREA OF SD. THUS
ANY CONVECTION MAY INDEED FIRE EAST OF THE FCST AREA. WILL WAIT
AND SEE IF WORTH PULLING POPS IN FAR EASTERN FCST AREA FOR NEXT
FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER SASKATCHEWAN WITH VORT MAX OVER
NW/NCNTRL ND. LEADING EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM PRODUCING A NARROW BAND
OF SHOWERS. 0.02 OCCURRED IN DEVILS LAKE. HRRR CONTINUES TO HAVE A
FEW SHOWERS MOVING EAST- NORTHEAST BUT WEAKENING A BIT. WILL
MAINTAIN ISOLD -SHRA WORDING THRU 00Z- 01Z IN NRN VALLEY.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THE COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOC WITH
500 MB TROUGH DEVELOPING A FEW SHOWERS IN WRN ND INTO SRN SASK/NE
MONTANA. FEEL THESE ARE HEAT DRIVEN AND WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVE.
THUS FOR THE TIME BEING KEPT POPS OUT OF DVL BASIN THOUGH NAM DOES
HAVE A FEW SHOWERS PSBL INTO NE ND THIS EVE WITH THE COLD POOL
ALOFT.

COLD POOL ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO NW MN MONDAY MORNING AND OVER NORTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND LAKE OF THE WOODS ONTARIO REGION MIDDAY-EARL
AFTN MONDAY. VIA DLH CHAT...WILL INCLUDE A LOW POP FOR SUN DRIVEN
SHOWERS IN LAKE OF THE WOODS-RED LAKE REGION IN THE 17Z-22Z
PERIOD. OTHERWISE SOME CUMULUS LIKELY BUT A GOOD DEAL OF SUN TOO.
QUITE WINDY ON MONDAY WITH WEST WINDS AND VERY DRY AIRMASS MOVING.
THIS CAUSES FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WHICH ARE ADDRESSED IN FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION SECTION. WINDS MAY WELL BE IN ADVISORY CRITERIA
FOR A TIME ESP DVL BASIN. WILL ALLOW MID SHIFT TO SORT OUT ANY
FIRE/WIND HEADLINES. FOR THE AFTN WINDS IN THE GRIDS DID GO WITH
HIGHER MAV MOS WINDS VS MODEL SUPERBLEND.

WINDS DIMINISH QUICKLY MON EVE AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STARTS TO
MOVE IN. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ON TUESDAY WITH RETURN SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW SETTING UP OVER ERN ND. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE RRV/ERN ND AS WARMING OCCURS IN THE
SFC-850 MB LEVEL OUT AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM ENTERING THE HIGH
PLAINS. DEW PTS MAY BE HIGHER BUT WITH HIGHER TEMPS EXPECT A DAY
WITH LOW RH VALUES ONCE AGAIN AND LIKELY CRITICAL FIRE WX
CONDITIONS. TUES NIGHT WILL SEE LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA AND A
MILD NIGHT. WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY. MODELS HAVE SLOWED SYSTEM DOWN
AND CONTINUED WITH IDEA OF A PRETTY MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM. ANY
PRECIP CONFINED TO JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WILL BE MORE WED NIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...ZONAL UPPER FLOW PATTERN
OVER SRN CANADA WILL BRING A MINOR SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC
TROUGH ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN HALF OF CWA AND SRN MB EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SCT SHRA WED NIGHT. MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE ALTHOUGH GFS A TAD FURTHER
NORTH. NEXT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN CANADA ON FRIDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE FOR MORE LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG INTL BORDER...HOWEVER NOT MUCH
MOISTURE AS FLUX OF PACIFIC MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH AND CONVECTION
OVER SRN US CUTS OFF ANY GULF MOISTURE. SW RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER
SASK/MB WILL AND SFC HIGH OVER NORTHERN TIER WILL KEEP FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT DRY. CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCE ON LATITUDE OF NEXT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA...WITH GFS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MB AND
KEEPING CWA DRY WHEREAS ECMWF BRINGS SFC LOW ALONG INTL BORDER.
ALL BLEND REPRESENTING ECMWF POSSIBILITY AND YIELDING CHANCE POPS
FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND OR LESS THAN 12 KNOTS
AFTER SUNSET...BUT AGAIN INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE ON MONDAY. PERIOD
OF VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF MAINLY SE ND/S RRV AS WEST OR NORTHWEST WINDS
GUST AT TIMES UP TO 30 MPH AMIDST DRY SURFACE AIR BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE START OF
THE WEEK. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. A DEEPENING MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER UP TO NEAR
700 MB WILL HELP TRANSFER HIGHER WIND GUSTS (UP TO 40 MPH) DOWN TO
THE SURFACE...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH. WITH THE AID OF THE
DEEP VERTICAL MIXING AND AN ALREADY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...RH
SHOULD FALL TO 20 PERCENT OR LOWER IN MANY AREAS. GIVEN THAT FUELS
REMAIN VERY DRY...THIS COMBINATION OF FACTORS MAY LEAD TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.

ANOTHER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY IS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. A SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO BREEZY/GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. WITH
WARMER TEMPS...RH MAY FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT AGAIN.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER
AVIATION...TG
FIRE WEATHER...MAKOWSKI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

634 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

WINDS DIMINISH QUICKLY MON EVE AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STARTS TO
MOVE IN. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND OR LESS THAN 12 KNOTS
AFTER SUNSET...BUT AGAIN INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE ON MONDAY. PERIOD
OF VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER
AVIATION...TG
FIRE WEATHER...MAKOWSKI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

342 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR SHORT TERM WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOWS AND
POTENTIAL FOR SOME WEAK CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTN. FOR IMMEDIATE
SHORT TERM...HI RES MODELS HAVE DONE DECENT JOB HANDLING TODAYS
HOURLY TEMPS...WITH 8 AM RUC RUN VERIFYING FAIRLY WELL WITH 3 PM
OBSERVED TEMPS. HOWEVER...THIS HAS ONLY BEEN THE CASE IN REGIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY WHERE DAYTIME MIXING HAS BEEN THE
HIGHEST. THEREFORE USING RUC AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPS THROUGH
03Z...BUT NEEDING TO COOL OFF THE FAR EAST AND WEST WHERE WINDS
ARE SLIGHTLY LESS. USED A FCST BLENDS FOR LOW POPS TOMORROW AFTN.

TONIGHT...A SIGNIFICANT LLJ WILL DEVELOP...WITH H850 WINDS AROUND
50 KTS OVER N CNTRL MN BY 03Z. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP WELL INTO
THE EVENING FOR THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES...AND
USING RUC HOURLY TEMPS FOR THESE REGIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
SOUTHERN VALLEY MAY STAY IN THE MID 50S WITH SOME MIXING
CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. TOUGHER AREA TO FCST WILL BE
SOUTHEAST WHERE DAYTIME HIGHS WERE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER HOWEVER
THE AXIS OF THE LLJ WILL SHIFT OVER THAT AREA...WHEN THE LLJ
STRENGTHENS...IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALSO POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHOWERS/CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE EAST TOWARD MORNING.
MEANWHILE BY EARLY MORNING WE WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN SKY IN THE
NORTHWEST AS MID CLOUDS NOW OVER MT ADVECT EAST...WITH SOME SHRA
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT IN CNTRL ND.

TOMORROW...WILL SEE MORE SHRA AND POSSIBLY TSRA DEVELOP OVER N
CNTRL MN BUT THE BEST THREAT FOR ANY HELPFUL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE EAST OF THE CWA. APPROACHING FROM FROM THE WEST MAY PRODUCE
SOME RAINFALL SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 2...WITH SOME
COOLER TEMPS ADVECTING IN DURING THE DAY. MAX TEMPS IN THE VALLEY
AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN MN MAY OCCUR IN THE EARLY AFTN AND REMAIN
STEADY OF FALL SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTN. COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS ENTIRE CWA BY 00Z MON.

TOMORROW NIGHT...COOLER AIRMASS WILL BRING OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN
INTO THE 30S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR ZERO IN THE FAR NORTHWEST
AND AROUND LAKE OF THE WOODS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

MONDAY WILL BE DRY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND 60. BREEZY WESTERLY
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT...WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF WARM
WEATHER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN
HOW MUCH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE WILL GET DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
FRONTS MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NRN TIER OF
THE U.S. 12Z ECMWF IS VERY MUCH SPLIT FLOW AND KEEPS THE SRN STREAM
MOISTURE WELL TO OUR SOUTH UNTIL SYSTEM MOVES TO OUR EAST OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. 12Z GFS/GEM REMAINS A BIT WETTER WITH FRONT
MOVING THROUGH WED AFTN-EVE. WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC POPS FOR
SHOWERS. NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE EAST WILL COME LATE SATURDAY...WHICH
WILL THE SAME MOISTURE ISSUES THAN THE MID WEEK ONE WILL HAVE. LOOK
FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE AREA...BUT STILL 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

CLEAR SKIES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT NW WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
EAST...HOWEVER SOUTHERLY WINDS TOMORROW WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOW RH WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH ON SUNDAY...WITH WINDS
BECOMING GUSTY FROM THE WEST IN ITS WAKE. WHILE TEMPS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT COOLER ON SUNDAY...DEEP MIXING WILL RESULT IN LOW RH
VALUES...LOWEST WEST OF THE VALLEY. NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER SE ND...BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD AND
TEMP TRENDS. RH MAY BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER FARTHER EAST WHERE THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR LATER. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE START OF THE WEEK...WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS AND VERY
DRY AIR (RH NEAR OR UNDER 20 PERCENT) POSSIBLY LEADING TO CRITICAL
CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY. TUESDAY MAY BE ANOTHER CRITICAL OR NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ008-016-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>005-007-
008-013>015-022-023-027>031-040.

SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER
AVIATION...RIDDLE
FIRE WEATHER...MAKOWSKI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

1245 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

SO FAR WINDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE BELOW EXPECTATIONS HOWEVER THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL BE WHEN THE ATMOSPHERE
LINKS UP WITH THE 925 MB WINDS. EXPECT THIS TO OCCUR BETWEEN 1 AND
6 PM CDT. STILL LOOKS OK FOR RED FLAG AS THE MIN HR VALUES WILL BE IN
THE TEENS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 922 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

SOUTHERLY 925 MB LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 35 KTS FROM RUC MODEL OVER
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SHOWERS EXITING
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME. THE WIND SPEEDS AT 925
SUGGEST SURFACE WINDS WINDS WILL PICK UP SOON AS WELL. HOWEVER
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS LOW LEVEL WIND MAX WILL MOVE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON SO DO NOT EXPECT TO REALIZE THESE STRONG WINDS THERE.
THERE WILL BE A RELATIVE WIND MAX THERE OF 20 TO 30 MPH. CURRENT
STATUS OF RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS THE SAME AND LOOKS OK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. A WEAK WAVE MOVING ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA
BORDER IS PRODUCING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM BISMARCK TO
JAMESTOWN AND SOUTH INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. A SPRINKLE OR TWO MAY BE
REACHING THE GROUND BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AN
HAVE REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THAT WAS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH 7 AM. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST...OR
CURRENT FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL KEEP A
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH H850 IN
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND UP THROUGH H700 IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS WILL ALLOW MIXING OF LOW LEVELS TO A DRY LAYER ALOFT.
INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. THE JAMES VALLEY MAY SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AS THE POCKET OF DRY/WINDY AIR
ALOFT SHIFTS TO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY. SEE THE
FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS. LOOKING AT A WARM DAY TODAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

MEANWHILE AT UPPER LEVELS...A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
ROCKIES TODAY EXPANDS INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS TONIGHT...AND MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

TONIGHT A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES IN BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH
DECENT COLD ADVECTION. LOOK FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE STATE AND BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED
WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH AT TIMES. A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY. COOLER
WITH HIGHS 50 TO 60. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY
IMPULSES WILL CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON
SUNDAY.

CONTINUED WINDY ON MONDAY. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHOULD
BE EAST OF THE STATE. THE COMBINATION OF THE VIGOROUS DEPARTING LOW
TO OUR EAST/NORTHEAST AND STRONG WARM AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST WILL PROVIDE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE.
YET ANOTHER DAY OF POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. A BIT WARMER
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

A PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. ON TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES AND MOVING INTO THE MONDAK REGION BY 00 UTC WEDNESDAY.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL BRING BREEZY
CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
INTO THE 70S...AND SOME 80 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTH. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AS
THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MEAN ANOTHER DAY WITH LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST. STILL SOME
CONCERNS AS TO WHETHER STRONGER WINDS WILL MATCH UP WITH THE LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES.

THE SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE SPLITTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEDNESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT. RAIN SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH MOST AREAS
SEEING THE POSSIBILITY OF UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH...AND POSSIBLY
LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO A QUARTER INCH.

COULD SEE A LINGERING SHOWER EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING IN THE FAR
EASTERN FORECAST AREA...BUT THEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDS
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
GFS BRINGS ANOTHER QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND
STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
ON SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THE ECMWF ARE NOT THAT MUCH
MORE IMPRESSIVE.

EXCEPT FOR THE VERY MILD DAY ON TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE A STRONG COLD
FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS
BOUNDARY...EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR TWO POSSIBLE AT KISN OR
KDIK AFT 03Z ON SUNDAY.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

RED FLAG WARNING TODAY.

EXPECT THAT RECENT RAIN/SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT IN THE
SOUTHWEST HAS MELTED/EVAPORATED OR FILTERED INTO THE TOPSOIL...AT
LEAST KNOWING THAT PARTS OF THOSE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES DID NOT HAVE
ANY SNOW COVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. NO REPORTS OF GRASSLANDS
BEGINNING TO GREEN UP.

RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND ALL OF
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20
TO 25 MPH BY AROUND NOON...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S...AND
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY. THIS INCLUDES WILLISTON AND BOWMAN...GARRISON TO
JAMESTOWN AND SOUTH.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE SUNDAY. CONFIDENT ON NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS IS FROM A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE 50S. THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
DRYING AT LOWER LEVELS FOR MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF
AROUND 20 PERCENT SOUTH AND 25 TO 30 PERCENT NORTH.
HOWEVER...EXPECTING SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS. MAY NEED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH/RED FLAG WARNING -
ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF/TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE.

CONTINUED WINDY MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S...AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ009-010-017>021-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA/ZH
FIRE WEATHER...JV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

938 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

MEANWHILE AT UPPER LEVELS...A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
ROCKIES TODAY EXPANDS INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS TONIGHT...AND MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

EXCEPT FOR THE VERY MILD DAY ON TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHWEST
WINDS BECOMING GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO 22-25 KNOTS AT
TIMES. A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT ENTERS NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFT 00Z AND MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE STATE.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

RED FLAG WARNING TODAY.

CONTINUED WINDY MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S...AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ009-010-017>021-025-031>037-
040>048-050-051.

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...JV
FIRE WEATHER...JV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TULSA OK

1208 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 18Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MID CLOUD AND
RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT OUT OF NE OK...BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY
MAJOR IMPACT TO AIRCRAFT OPS. MVFR CIGS ARE PROGGED TO RETURN
EARLY SUNDAY AS LOW LVL MOISTURE RETURN GETS UNDERWAY ACROSS E OK.

LACY

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 948 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURRING WELL ABOVE THE SURFACE ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT WHICH PASSED THRU A COUPLE DAYS AGO IS
PRODUCING HIGH BASED SHOWERS...AND SOME LIGHTNING MAINLY WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAJORITY OF THE DATA SUGGESTS PRECIP WILL
HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS INTO OUR
AREA...DESPITE WHAT IS CURRENTLY ON RADAR TO OUR WEST. TIME WILL
TELL. THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH BY
TONIGHT. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN/STORMS WILL BE ON SUNDAY
WHEN A FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH...AND MOISTURE INCREASES FROM
THE SOUTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER WAVE.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN OK THIS MORNING BUT WITH
MINIMAL ON AVIATION OPS. SOME LOWER VFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NE OK AFTER 06Z SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED STORMS NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE OVER THE NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE TRYING TO MOVE INTO PARTS OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING BUT ARE HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY OVERCOMING
THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE. OVERALL PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER LOW IN OUR AREA TODAY
ALTHOUGH THE HRRR DOES INDICATE AT LEAST ISOLATED ACTIVITY
CONTINUING MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT TO SEE ENOUGH SUN THROUGH THE
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO
THE 70S.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER TONIGHT AND WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY.
THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
LAG BACK OVER THE AREA.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY WITH
MOST MODELS DEVELOPING A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN TEH VICINITY BY LATE
WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES GOING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 57 79 61 72 / 20 30 70 50
FSM 54 80 63 74 / 10 40 60 70
MLC 58 77 61 72 / 10 40 70 60
BVO 54 80 58 72 / 20 30 70 30
FYV 53 77 59 69 / 10 30 60 60
BYV 52 76 59 70 / 10 20 60 60
MKO 55 78 61 72 / 10 30 60 60
MIO 52 78 58 71 / 20 30 70 40
F10 58 77 61 72 / 10 30 60 60
HHW 57 76 63 74 / 10 50 80 70

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...30

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TULSA OK

948 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURRING WELL ABOVE THE SURFACE ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT WHICH PASSED THRU A COUPLE DAYS AGO IS
PRODUCING HIGH BASED SHOWERS...AND SOME LIGHTNING MAINLY WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAJORITY OF THE DATA SUGGESTS PRECIP WILL
HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS INTO OUR
AREA...DESPITE WHAT IS CURRENTLY ON RADAR TO OUR WEST. TIME WILL
TELL. THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH BY
TONIGHT. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN/STORMS WILL BE ON SUNDAY
WHEN A FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH...AND MOISTURE INCREASES FROM
THE SOUTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER WAVE.

LACY

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015/

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 74 57 79 61 / 20 20 30 70
FSM 75 54 80 63 / 10 10 40 60
MLC 75 58 77 61 / 10 10 40 70
BVO 73 54 80 58 / 20 20 30 70
FYV 72 53 77 59 / 10 10 30 60
BYV 73 52 76 59 / 10 10 20 60
MKO 74 55 78 61 / 10 10 30 60
MIO 73 52 78 58 / 10 20 30 70
F10 74 58 77 61 / 20 10 30 60
HHW 74 57 76 63 / 10 10 50 80

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...30

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TULSA OK

551 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN OK THIS MORNING BUT WITH
MINIMAL ON AVIATION OPS. SOME LOWER VFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NE OK AFTER 06Z SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED STORMS NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015/

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...14

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TULSA OK

420 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE OVER THE NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE TRYING TO MOVE INTO PARTS OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING BUT ARE HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY OVERCOMING
THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE. OVERALL PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER LOW IN OUR AREA TODAY
ALTHOUGH THE HRRR DOES INDICATE AT LEAST ISOLATED ACTIVITY
CONTINUING MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT TO SEE ENOUGH SUN THROUGH THE
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO
THE 70S.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 74 57 79 61 / 20 20 30 70
FSM 75 54 80 63 / 10 10 40 60
MLC 75 58 77 61 / 20 10 40 70
BVO 73 54 80 58 / 20 20 30 70
FYV 72 53 77 59 / 10 10 30 60
BYV 73 52 76 59 / 10 10 20 60
MKO 74 55 78 61 / 20 10 30 60
MIO 73 52 78 58 / 20 20 30 70
F10 74 58 77 61 / 20 10 30 60
HHW 74 57 76 63 / 10 10 50 80

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....05

PLATE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEDFORD OR

858 AM PDT SAT APR 11 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO INCREASE THE PROBABILITY
OF LIGHT SHOWERS TODAY AND THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR WEST
AND NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES IN SOUTHWEST OREGON. THE BACK EDGE OF
A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FROM THE
VICINITY OF BROOKINGS TO SEXTON SUMMIT, CRATER LAKE, AND CHEMULT.
THIS DISTURBANCE HAS GENERALLY PRODUCED ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH
OF RAIN AT THE COAST, A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE COASTAL RANGE OF
CURRY COUNTY, AND A TRACE TO 0.05 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS OF
SOUTHWEST OREGON AND FAR WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AS LIFT IS WEAK AND THE VERTICAL EXTENT OF MOISTURE IS
SHALLOW WITH CLOUD TOPS ONLY AROUND 12,000 FEET MSL. THE LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL VEER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE TROUGH.
THUS, THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY WEST OF
INTERESTATE 5. EXCEPT, THE EXCEPTION IS THAT THE FACTOR OF
INCREASED UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN JACKSON COUNTY.

THE LAST SHOWER SHOULD TAPER OFF AROUND 7 OR 8 PM PDT THIS
EVENING. BUT, LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TRANSITIONING TO
STRATUS WILL LIKELY LINGER IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT AS
RIDGING OF HIGH PRESSURE CAUSES THE AIR MASS TO STABILIZE.
OTHERWISE, THE SKIES TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. SUNDAY LOOKS
TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY AND WARMER ACROSS THE AREA.

.AVIATION...FOR THE 11/12Z TAF CYCLE...A PASSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BRING RAIN AND SHIFTING WINDS TO THE AREA TODAY. MVFR AND
LOCAL IFR WITH INCREASING TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MID MORNING ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE COASTAL RANGE...WHILE MVFR IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ACROSS THE UMPQUA BASIN WITH TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS SPREADING TO THE CASCADES. SOMEWHAT STEADY VALLEY RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW IS EXPECTED PRIMARILY FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD
THROUGH NOON...WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH THE EVENING, BUT SOME RESIDUAL
AREAS OF MVFR MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
/FB

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT, SATURDAY APR 11 2015... A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING MODERATE RAIN...INCREASING WINDS...AND BUILDING SEAS AS
IT PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RETURN WITH BUILDING NORTHWEST SWELL AND ALSO MODERATE NORTH
WINDS IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THE NEXT FRONT IS
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
NEXT WEEKEND...NORTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN...WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES LIKELY AND WARNING LEVEL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
CAPE BLANCO. /FB

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM PDT SAT APR 11 2015/

DISCUSSION...THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT HAS REACHED THE COAST
AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND TODAY. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL
(WHICH IS A SHORT RANGE MODEL THAT`S UPDATED HOURLY) KEEPS THE
ROGUE VALLEY DRY UNTIL MID MORNING. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ALONG THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES. AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS
FOR WESTSIDE VALLEYS WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5500 FEET, BUT COULD
LOWER TO 5000 FEET IN HEAVIER SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION COMING DURING THE DAY, ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO AROUND CRATER LAKE AND
POSSIBLY DIAMOND LAKE WHERE ROADSIDE SLUSH IS POSSIBLE.

MEANWHILE GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
CASCADES, BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. MODELS
SHOW 700 MB WINDS BETWEEN 40-45 KTS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD IN. ANY SHOWERS WILL END AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. ALSO THERE MAY BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT.

WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE AREA SUNDAY BRINGING A
RETURN TO DRY AND MILDER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL END
UP ABOVE NORMAL. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER AND STRONGER SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON, THUS
DRIVING ANOTHER AND STRONGER FRONT INTO THE AREA. RIGHT NOW, THE
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON, THEN PUSH
INLAND MONDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN
-30 AND -33 C MOVING OVERHEAD. SNOW LEVELS WILL ALSO DROP TO
AROUND 2500 FEET BY EARLY TUESDAY. THIS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF
SHOWERS COULD RESULT IN WINTRY TRAVEL ALONG HIGHWAY 140 NEAR LAKE
OF THE WOODS...HIGHWAY 66...HIGHWAYS 62 TOWARDS CRATER LAKE AND
HIGHWAY 138 AND 230 NEAR DIAMOND LAKE. THE DETAILS ON THIS ARE NOT
CLEAR DUE IN PART TO TIMING AND QPF DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS,
SO STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST UPDATES.

TUESDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST
AND RIDGING STARTING TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ANY SHOWERS
SHOULD END IN THE MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK, POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEKEND STILL
LOOK DRY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. -PETRUCELLI

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

DW/SBN/SBN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEDFORD OR

326 AM PDT SAT APR 11 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT HAS REACHED THE COAST
AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND TODAY. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL
(WHICH IS A SHORT RANGE MODEL THAT`S UPDATED HOURLY) KEEPS THE
ROGUE VALLEY DRY UNTIL MID MORNING. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ALONG THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES. AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS
FOR WESTSIDE VALLEYS WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5500 FEET, BUT COULD
LOWER TO 5000 FEET IN HEAVIER SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION COMING DURING THE DAY, ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO AROUND CRATER LAKE AND
POSSIBLY DIAMOND LAKE WHERE ROADSIDE SLUSH IS POSSIBLE.

MEANWHILE GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
CASCADES, BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. MODELS
SHOW 700 MB WINDS BETWEEN 40-45 KTS.

.AVIATION...A PASSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING SHIFTING WINDS
TO THE AREA TODAY. MVFR AND LOCAL IFR WITH INCREASING TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
COASTAL RANGE...WHILE MVFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ACROSS THE
UMPQUA BASIN WITH TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS SPREADING TO THE CASCADES.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE PREDOMINATE CONDITION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, HOWEVER BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS WITH
MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED CAUSING TURBULENCE
ALONG AND THE LEE SIDE OF THE CASCADES. -PETRUCELLI

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY
THIS MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR PZZ350-370.

MAP/MAP/MAP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

855 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

.DISCUSSION...00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WARM FRONT BISECTING
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM FORT SMITH ARKANSAS
BACK THROUGH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA.
VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS THIS EVENING INDICATE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES AS OF 8 PM CDT ARE IN THE LOWER 70S AT
MOST LOCATIONS. CHALLENGE THIS EVENING THUS FAR IS TIMING OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.

LATEST HRRR AND THE 00Z WRF STARTING TO COME IN INDICATE A
MAJORITY OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ARRIVE MAINLY
AROUND/AFTER 12Z MONDAY MORNING. BASED ON THESE TRENDS...WILL SLOW
DOWN ONSET OF RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL ALSO ADJUST ALL OTHER
ELEMENTS AS NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS.

UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

CJC

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015/

UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WET...WET...WET IS HOW THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING SEVEN DAYS
LOOK ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. CURRENTLY...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY
ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...THAT WILL CHANGE BY LATER TONIGHT AS THE
CWA BECOMES SANDWICHED BETWEEN A WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND A
COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF BOTH
FRONTS THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SUNSHINE
THUS ENJOY THE LAST COUPLE OF DRY HOURS WHILE YOU CAN.

THE WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
AND IS EXPECTED TO SURGE NORTHWARD TONIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT
THE CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI AROUND 12 AM-2 AM
CDT. MEANWHILE...THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. THIS FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT TO HOLD OFF MOVING INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS TO AROUND 6 AM-8
AM CDT. THUS BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT WILL OCCUR OVER NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AS THE WARM
FRONT AND COLD FRONT COLLIDE OVER THE MIDSOUTH. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY EVENING. THEREAFTER...THE
NOW LONE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY
WITH BEST CHANCES OCCURRING ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI DUE TO BEING
IN THE VICINITY OF THE STALLED FRONT.

A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF TEXAS BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD BRINGING THE FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH
A TAD. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH AGAIN DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

THE SFC LOW WILL PUSH EAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER BY THURSDAY
NIGHT ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT DUE TO ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. SINCE THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE VICINITY OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI. SMALL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EVEN ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. THE
CHANCES WILL GO UP BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE SFC LOW
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA.

SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
SFC LOW PUSHES EAST. THE STALLED FRONT MAY PUSH A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY GIVING THE MIDSOUTH A BRIEF
BREAK IN THE CHANCES FOR RAIN. HOWEVER BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVER
THE MIDSOUTH AS ANOTHER SFC LOW TRACKS OVER THE AREA.

THE AREA MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FLOOD
WATCH BY AT LEAST THE MID TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK DEPENDING ON
HOW MUCH RAIN THE AREA RECEIVES FROM THE FIRST EVENT LATE TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. THE GROUND COULD BECOME VERY SATURATED BY MID TO LATE
WEEK WHICH COULD POSE A FLASH FLOOD RISK. IN ADDITION...SMALL
RIVERS AND CREEKS COULD BE RUNNING FULL BY THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE
RAINFALL EXPECTED THIS WEEK. STAY TUNED.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S.

KRM

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE NEXT 6
HOURS. CIGS WILL LOWER WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SSE AROUND 10 KTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY MONDAY MORNING. MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 8 AND 12Z WITH IFR CIGS FOLLOWING AROUND4
HOURS LATER. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 09Z BUT WILL HOLD
OFF ON PREVAILING RAINFALL UNTIL 11-14Z...EARLIEST AT TUP AND MEM
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDER ON STATION
YET...JUST VCTS AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SSE AROUND
10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY MONDAY MORNING.

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN ANGELO TX

1003 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2015

.UPDATE...
See update discussion below.

.DISCUSSION...
updated zones and grids to cancel severe thunderstorm watch #57.
Also, made some adjustment to POP grids, with likely POPS
remaining across mainly the Big Country for tonight.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

A line of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will move
across the CWA this evening. This will likely result in thunder at
all terminals, mainly between 2-5z. Gusty outflow winds and
temporary MVFR ceilings and vsbys are anticipated. Precipitation
is expected to end by 06z, with primarily mid-level clouds
overnight. There could be some stratus at the southern terminals,
but confidence is too low to include at this time. Light southerly
winds tonight will veer to the southwest ahead of a cold front
that is forecast to reach KABI near or just after 18z Monday.
Diurnally driving showers and thunderstorms will be possible at
both KABI and KSJT Monday afternoon.

Johnson

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

Band of strong thunderstorms will likely move quickly east through
West Central Texas this evening. The storms moving through the Big
Bend and western Permian Basin at 3 PM CDT. With strong lift ahead
an upper low near El Paso, the short range models, including the
Texas Tech WRF and the HRRR indicate the line of storms to move into
Crockett County 5-6 PM...along a Sweetwater to San Angelo to Sonora
line around 8 PM...and an Abilene to Junction line 9-10 PM CDT.

There is the potential for a severe thunderstorm or two, as the SPC
mesoanalysis RUC indicated between 2000-3000 J/KG over the region.
The mostly likely impact however will be wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph
along the initial line of storms. SPC Day 1 Outlook has marginal
potential for severe storms for areas south of I-20 with a slight
risk just south of West Central Texas. This looks good as GFS 0-6 KM
shear was 20-35 KTS with the highest values along the I-10 corridor.
Rain chances diminish after midnight as the storm complex moves east.

West Central is somewhat dry-slotted Monday, at least south of the
I-20 corridor as the upper low moves slowly through. A weak cold
front will push through the Big Country late morning and afternoon,
bringing the the best chances of storms to the north. There is a
marginal potential for severe storms, but potential is somewhat
limited with lower GFS SB CAPES of 500 to 1500 mainly in northern
and eastern sections.

LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)

An interesting weather pattern is setting up for much of the week.
An upper-level low will be located over eastern New Mexico/western
parts of the Panhandle tomorrow evening, with a cold front dropping
south through the Big Country, and a dryline extending south through
western parts of the area (roughly along a Sweetwater to Sonora
line). Showers and thunderstorms will develop north of the front, as
south to southwest flow aloft maintains good isotropic ascent.
Additionally, a few showers or thunderstorms may develop in the warm
sector south of the front and ahead of the dryline. Isolated severe
thunderstorms may develop in this area, with locally heavy rain also
possible.

As the system departs the area Tuesday into Wednesday, drier air
will move back into the region. This will be short-lived however, as
another strong shortwave trough develops across the Inter-mountain
West, resulting in dryline development across western parts of the
Panhandle and West Texas Wednesday night/Thursday. Moisture will
again build across the area, with showers and thunderstorms possible
during this time period. As this next system departs the area Friday
and Saturday, dry air will move back into the region, with sunny
skies and warm temperatures expected.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 58 77 53 70 50 / 60 50 60 20 10
San Angelo 58 84 54 73 52 / 40 20 30 10 10
Junction 60 82 55 76 53 / 40 20 20 10 10

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

941 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AN MCS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS MAY APPROACH THE WESTERN
COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA BY OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DIFFER A BIT...WITH THE HRRR ON THE
DRIER SIDE...THE NAM12 WETTER...AND THE RAP13 IN BETWEEN. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THE MCS MAY BECOME MORE DOMINATE ON ITS
SOUTHERN END. IF SO...IT WOULD PROBABLY IMPACT MORE THE
SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LIKED A COMBINATION OF THE
LATEST HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS AFTER COMPARING THEM WITH THE 18Z
TEXAS TECH WRF. THIS BEING THE CASE...KEPT THE LIKELY POPS
OVERNIGHT BUT DID TWEAK THE ONSET OF THE BETTER RAIN AND THUNDER
CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST. ALSO KEPT THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE HIGH PW/S IN PLACE...1.8 INCHES AT BOTH KLCH
AND KCRP.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION...

AVIATION...
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE A FEW WIDELY SCT SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE
AREA THAT SHOULD ONLY IMPACT A FEW TERMINALS THROUGH 01-02Z. MAIN
IMPACTS WILL BE FOR KHOU/KSGR/KCLL. KEPT VCTS IN THOSE TAFS
THROUGH 02Z. REST OF TERMINALS WILL HAVE VCSH AS ACTIVITY
DISSIPATES.

OVERALL EXPECT VFR/MVFR CIGS TO GIVE WAY TO IFR CIGS AFTER 06Z
LIKE THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. SE WINDS WILL KEEP ENOUGH MIXING
SO CEILINGS DO NOT LOWER BELOW 500FT. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE LATE
MORNING IN WAKE OF POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE. LOOK FOR MVFR CIGS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.

CONVECTION FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY. LINE OF STORMS IN MEXICO
LOOKS TO PUSH THIS DIRECTION TONIGHT BUT A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP VCTS IN TAFS FROM 08-11Z WHEN LINE OF STORMS COULD
REACH SE TX TERMINALS. THAT IS IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER. INSTABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO NIGHT TIME RADIATIONAL COOLING BUT DEEP
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. OTHER
QUESTION WILL BE IF LINE CAN MAINTAIN BALANCE BETWEEN COLD POOL
AND UPDRAFT/ENVIRONMENTAL AIRMASS. WILL USE 06Z TAF UPDATE TO
TWEAK TIMING OF CONVECTION IF IT LOOKS TO MAINTAIN ITSELF THROUGH
C TX.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 68 80 66 78 62 / 70 50 40 50 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 69 81 68 81 66 / 60 60 40 50 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 72 80 72 78 71 / 60 70 40 50 20

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN ANGELO TX

631 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Johnson

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 58 77 53 70 50 / 70 50 60 20 10
San Angelo 58 84 54 73 52 / 60 20 30 10 10
Junction 60 82 55 76 53 / 60 20 20 10 10

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

1222 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

.AVIATION...
DIFFICULT TAF FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24/30 HOURS WITH CONTINUED IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AND CONTINUED POSSIBILITIES OF SHOWERS.
CURRENTLY...CEILINGS ARE BORDERLINE LIFR/IFR WITH VISIBILITIES
SLOWLY IMPROVING. A BATCH OF SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
BEXAR COUNTY AND WILL BEGIN TAFSAT/TAFSSF WITH -SHRA FOR THIS
ACTIVITY. LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THAT THE IFR CEILINGS WILL
NOT IMPROVE WITH IFR REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THINK THIS IS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE TRENDS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MVFR AROUND NOON TOMORROW.

REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID TAF
PERIOD...ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN MORE SCATTERED THAN CONTINUOUS.
BECAUSE OF THIS...IT IS EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN A PRECISE
TIME WHEN ANY GIVEN TERMINAL WILL BE DEALING WITH PRECIPITATION.
WILL CONTINUE TO HANDLE THIS WITH A VCSH GROUP FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD AND TRY TO GIVE SOME HEADS UP OF PREVAILING ACTIVITY WITH
AMENDMENTS AND FUTURE ROUTINE ISSUANCES. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 60S...THINK THUNDER
CHANCES ARE LOWER AND WILL OPT NOT TO MENTION THUNDER AT THIS
TIME.

HAMPSHIRE

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015/

UPDATE...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. LATEST RAP40 ANALYSIS SHOWS SEVERAL SHORT
WAVES ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO AS THEY MOVE TO
THE NORTHEAST. SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWS RICH TROPICAL AIRMASS
PUSHING FROM THE SOUTH AT LOW LEVELS AND THE 12Z KDRT SOUNDING
BACK THIS UP. AS OF NOW...AREA RADARS ARE SHOWING SOME LIGHT
ECHOES ACROSS 2/3 OF THE REGION WITH ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND THE SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE OUT
WEST NEARS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIRES MODELS ARE ALL
OVER THE PLACE WITH THE FIRST WAVE BUT THEY ARE MORE IN LINE WITH
A SECOND DISTURBANCE TO COME ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK KEEPS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES UNDER A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THEREFORE...CAN`T RULE OUT FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OUT WEST
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 57. MAIN HAZARDS FOR THIS PERIOD
WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. FOR SUNDAY/SPC DAY 2
OUTLOOK...A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS EXISTS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AND
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
ALSO...ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/ EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. GFS/NAM/EWC STORM
RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES
ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES. STAY TUNED AND CLOSELY MONITOR THE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR UPDATED INFORMATION AS THIS WET PATTERN
AFFECT THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...GOOD CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL THE NEXT 48 HOURS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. A MOIST MID
AND UPPER LEVEL TAP FROM THE PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE OVERHEAD. THE
LOWEST LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY RELATIVELY DRY BEHIND YESTERDAYS COLD
FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WHERE DEW POINTS ARE IN
THE LOW 50S. THIS WILL MODIFY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MORNING...AND LOW LEVEL H85 THETA-E
ADVECTION SETS UP OVER THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW. PWAT VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5-1.7 INCHES BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CLOSER TO 1.8-1.9 INCHES EAST OF I-35 SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...WELL ABOVE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF THE MEAN FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WARM FRONT LIFTING BACK THROUGH THE AREA
WILL SERVE AS FOCUS FOR FORCING TODAY. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO
THE HRRR AND SREF THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS...WHICH SEEM TO BE
RELATIVELY BETTER WITH ONGOING CONVECTION SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
CWA. WITH NO CAP IN PLACE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MID MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN CWA AND EXPANDING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT...AND THROUGH NORTHERN
MEXICO AND INTO FAR WEST TEXAS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. TIMING OF
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS DIFFICULT.
GENERALLY ECMWF AND GFS ARE SHOWING TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FORCING INCREASING OUT OF SOUTH AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE EWX CWA...AND THEN A SECOND DISTURBANCE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING COMING OUT OF MEXICO WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE EWX CWA. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES BROADLY
DIFFLUENT OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT BETWEEN
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND SOUTHERN
STREAM SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND MEXICO.
THIS ALL INDICATES HIGH CHANCES FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIP
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS BETTER...BUT OVERALL THE
MOIST NATURE OF THE COLUMN LOOKS MORE OF INDICATIVE OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING LOOK
TO AVERAGE AROUND 1/2 TO 1 INCH ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...1 TO 2
INCHES ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR...AND 2 TO 3
INCHES EAST OF I-35. A FEW POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...DRIER AIR DOES WORK INTO THE
RIO GRANDE AND HILL COUNTRY ON MONDAY WITH DECREASING POPS WEST TO
EAST. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EVENTUALLY OPENS AND SHEARS NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS SOUTH-
CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY. SHOULD SEE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY WITH DEEP MOISTURE STILL POOLED ALONG AND
EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. EVENTUALLY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEEPENS THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...SENDING A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL TAP FROM
THE PACIFIC CONTINUING IT APPEARS ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIP
WILL OCCUR DURING THIS TIME. DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 69 66 78 65 82 / 60 70 70 90 40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 71 66 77 65 81 / 60 70 70 90 40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 71 66 78 64 84 / 60 70 70 90 40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 70 64 77 63 81 / 60 60 60 80 40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 74 66 80 63 85 / 60 40 50 70 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 69 65 76 65 81 / 50 70 70 80 40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 74 66 79 64 84 / 60 60 60 90 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 71 66 77 65 82 / 60 70 70 90 40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 73 68 77 68 81 / 60 60 70 80 50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 73 67 79 66 83 / 60 70 60 90 30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 72 68 79 66 84 / 60 70 60 90 30

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LUBBOCK TX

1118 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

.UPDATE...
LATEST MORNING MODEL RUNS HAVE OFFERED LITTLE REASON TO CHANGE THE
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN ISSUE MODELS AND FORECASTERS
SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING WITH IS IF WE WILL SEE STORM INITIATION BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL NO DISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL MAKE INITIATION A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT.
WE WILL HAVE TO RELY ON DRYLINE CONVERGENCE AND ABUNDANT SURFACE
HEATING. LOW STRATUS HAD FORMED WHEN MORNING CONVECTION CLEARED
OUT BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR MUCH LONGER ALLOWING FOR
FULL SUNSHINE.

OTHERWISE...THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS LOOK GOOD FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SURFACE HEATING INTO THE 70S WILL ALLOW
FOR SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO REACH BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG
WITH MINIMAL CIN NEAREST THE DRYLINE. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING
CAP TO THE EAST PREVENTING MUCH DEVELOPMENT IN THE ROLLING PLAINS.
LOW LEVEL THETA-E VALUES WERE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS
DEPICTED IN THE RAP ANALYSIS. LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE
FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS. DEW POINTS IN THE 50S WILL NOT
GIVE US LOW LCLS BUT WILL NOT BE VERY HIGH WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
IN THE 70S. MODELS ARE AGREEING UPON A SLIGHT BULGE IN THE DRYLINE
DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS WHICH MAY ALLOW THE STRONGEST AREA
OF INTEREST TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE. GIVEN THE ABOVE REASONING...IF WE DO SEE
INITIATION...STORMS WOULD LIKELY BECOME SEVERE QUICKLY. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF TORNADOES GIVEN THE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR BUT
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015/

AVIATION...
SCATTERED -TSRA WERE EAST OF KLBB AND KPVW EARLY THIS
MORNING...WHILE ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED WEST AND EAST
OF KCDS AND HAVE THEREFORE INSERTED A VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS AT
KCDS. COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT -TSRA POPPING UP NEAR KLBB AND KPVW
THIS MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE OF INSERTING A MENTION IS LOW AT THIS
TIME. VFR DECKS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR CRITERIA LATER
THIS MORNING AT ALL THREE TAF SITES UNTIL EARLY AFTN WHEN
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR. ADDITIONAL -TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP WEST OF KLBB AND KPVW THIS AFTERNOON...AND COULD POSSIBLY
AFFECT ALL THREE TAF SITES AS THE ACTIVITY SHIFT EASTWARD WITH
TIME. FURTHERMORE...SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INSERT A PRECIP MENTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL OF
COURSE AMEND AS NECESSARY. TONIGHT AS THE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY
SHIFT EAST AND AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS...COULD SEE VFR/MVFR FOG
AND MVFR DECKS DEVELOP GIVEN THE MOIST ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS...THOUGH S-SE WIND SPEEDS STAYING UP A BIT MAY
MITIGATE FOG POTENTIAL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015/

SHORT TERM...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS SHARPENED IN THE LAST 24
HOURS...COURTESY OF A CLOSED UA LOW ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC /WELL
WEST OF BAJA OF CALI/ THAT IS GRADUALLY DRIFTING SSEWRD. AS SUCH...A
PLUME OF RICH PACIFIC MOISTURE IS STREAMING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. LOOKING AT THE SFC...THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS WAS
ENVELOPED BY AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME PER 07Z METARS...WHICH HAS
GARNERED DEWPOINTS TO INCREASE INTO THE 30S AND 40S AND HENCE HAVE
PWATS OF 0.75-0.85 INCHES. THIS RISE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...COUPLED
WITH A 25-35 KT LLJ AND AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...HAS LED
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ERN NM THAT HAS TRANSLATED ENEWRD TO ACROSS THE
SW SOUTH PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL SOUTH PLAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE TTU MESONET SITE LOCATED 7 MILES WNW OF DENVER CITY
RECORDED 0.13 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITHIN 20 MINUTES DUE TO THIS
ACTIVITY. COULD ALSO SEE BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH AS THIS
ACTIVITY IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS
LATER THIS MORNING. FURTHERMORE...THE SURGE IN MOISTURE COULD
PROMOTE MVFR CLOUD DECKS BY DAYBREAK.

THIS AFTN COULD SHAPE UP TO BE QUITE INTERESTING. S-SE SFC WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA WHILST SWRLY SFC WINDS OCCUR MORE SO
ACROSS ERN NM...THUS SHARPENING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DRYLINE ALONG
THE TX/NM BORDER. AT FIRST A BIT OF CIN WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME BUT
BY LATE AFTN...CIN IS QUITE NEGLIGIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE AXIS OF
THE DRYLINE AND THUS MODEL SOLUTIONS BREAK OUT PRECIP ACROSS LOCALES
ON THE CAPROCK AS THE DRYLINE BULGES A BIT EWRD. STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES...MUCAPE VALUES INCREASING TO AOA 1000 J/KG AND A WEAK IMPULSE
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE AFTN
WILL LEAD TO CONCERNS FOR STORMS TO REACH STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
LEVELS. MAIN SEVERE CONCERNS WILL BE HAIL AROUND THE SIZE OF GOLF
BALLS AND WIND GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER. HOWEVER...VEERING
VERTICAL WIND PROFILES AS WELL AS ADEQUATE VEERING AT THE LOW LEVELS
/0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35-45 KTS/ DOES SUGGEST STORMS WILL BE
ROTATING...AND THUS AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THOUGH
LCL/S ARE NOT TERRIBLY LOW /5000 FT AGL OR SO/. MAKE SURE YOU STAY
ABREAST OF THE LATEST WX CONDITIONS BY LISTENING TO YOUR NOAA WX
RADIO...GOING TO OUR WEBSITE /WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LUBBOCK/ AND/OR
WATCHING YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET. TONIGHT...BEST POPS WILL SHIFT
EWRD TO ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND THE RETURN OF THE LLJ /30-40
KTS/ WILL AID IN FEEDING THE STORM ACTIVITY UNTIL IT EXITS THE
REGION. ENSUING S-SE SFC WINDS MAY BRING ABOUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STRATUS DECK AND/OR FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

AN UPTICK IN 850 MB TEMPS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY /70S/ FOLLOWED BY A MILD NIGHT /50S AND 60S/.

LONG TERM...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN CHANCES STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR THE FCST
AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
THAT AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING WAS STILL WELL OFF THE COAST OF SRN
AND BAJA CALIFORNIA. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW...STILL TRACKING IT SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO
THE SOUTH WITH EACH RUN. ATTM SUNDAY LOOKS LIKELY TO BE DRY UNTIL
LATER IN THE AFTN WHEN THE COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM
THE UPPER LOW AND AFTERNOON HEATING WORK ON A REASONABLY MOIST AIR
MASS TO BEGIN SPREADING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NWD
FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO SEE RAIN
CONCENTRATED ALONG THE DEFORMATION AXIS TO THE NORTH OF THE UPPER
LOW...THE LOCATION OF WHICH WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW...THUS A FARTHER SOUTH TRACK SIMILAR TO THE 00Z WRF-NAM WILL
BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE FCST AREA. MONDAY MIGHT END UP BEING THE
WETTEST...AT LEAST AS FAR AS HOW MUCH OF THE FCST RECEIVES
RAINFALL...AS EVEN IF THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS FARTHER NORTH...
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION OF THE MOIST AIR MASS UNDERNEATH THE LOW
ITSELF WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. EFFECT
OF A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED
EITHER...POSSIBLY SERVING AS ANOTHER FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. ALL IN ALL CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND WILL
NUDGE POPS UP IN THAT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD.

THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD STILL LOOKS GENERALLY BENIGN...
ALTHOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A
SOLUTION WITH MORE ENERGY IN THIS TROUGH...CUTTING OFF A FAIRLY
STRONG LOW OVER THE CNTL PLAINS THEN DRIFTING IT EWD. COULD SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTN OR NIGHT AND INTRODUCED A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THEN. OTHERWISE...COOLER AIR SHOULD MOVE SWD
BEHIND THIS DEVELOPING TROUGH/LOW WITH TEMPS COOLING AGAIN FOR
THURSDAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 75 51 78 48 / 20 20 30 60
TULIA 72 56 79 54 / 40 20 30 60
PLAINVIEW 73 57 79 56 / 40 20 30 60
LEVELLAND 78 57 79 51 / 30 20 40 60
LUBBOCK 76 58 80 54 / 30 20 40 60
DENVER CITY 80 57 78 53 / 20 20 40 50
BROWNFIELD 78 58 80 52 / 30 20 40 50
CHILDRESS 73 60 82 60 / 50 30 30 60
SPUR 73 60 80 56 / 50 20 40 60
ASPERMONT 77 62 83 60 / 50 30 40 50

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

1057 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

.UPDATE...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. LATEST RAP40 ANALYSIS SHOWS SEVERAL SHORT
WAVES ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO AS THEY MOVE TO
THE NORTHEAST. SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWS RICH TROPICAL AIRMASS
PUSHING FROM THE SOUTH AT LOW LEVELS AND THE 12Z KDRT SOUNDING
BACK THIS UP. AS OF NOW...AREA RADARS ARE SHOWING SOME LIGHT
ECHOES ACROSS 2/3 OF THE REGION WITH ISOLATED MODEATE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND THE SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE OUT
WEST NEARS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIRES MODELS ARE ALL
OVER THE PLACE WITH THE FIRST WAVE BUT THEY ARE MORE IN LINE WITH
A SECOND DISTURBANCE TO COME ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK KEEPS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES UNDER A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THEREFORE...CAN`T RULE OUT FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OUT WEST
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 57. MAIN HAZARDS FOR THIS PERIOD
WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. FOR SUNDAY/SPC DAY 2
OUTLOOK...A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS EXISTS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AND
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
ALSO...ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/ EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. GFS/NAM/EWC STORM
RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES
ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES. STAY TUNED AND CLOSELY MONITOR THE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR UPDATED INFORMATION AS THIS WET PATTERN
AFFECT THE AREA.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015/

AVIATION...
-SHRA ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS
MORNING. SHRA WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TODAY AND REMAIN
SCT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLD/SCT TSRA WILL DEVELOP
MIDDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. HAVE GONE VCSH/-SHRA AT THE
TAF SITES...EXCEPT VCTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. IFR
CIGS WILL PREVAIL WITH PATCHY LIFR CIGS AND IFR/MVFR VSBYS THIS
MORNING. CIGS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS
SHRA BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. CIGS FALL BACK TO IFR WITH PATCHY LIFR
CIGS AND IFR/MVFR VSBYS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. NELY WINDS
LESS THAN 10 KTS MOST AREAS WILL SLOWLY TURN SELY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING. EXCEPT SELY WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS WILL PREVAIL ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE AND EDWARDS PLATEAU.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 74 66 78 65 82 / 60 70 70 90 40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 74 66 77 65 81 / 60 70 70 90 40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 76 66 78 64 84 / 60 70 70 90 40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 72 64 77 63 81 / 60 60 60 80 40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 77 66 80 63 85 / 60 40 50 70 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 73 65 76 65 81 / 50 70 70 80 40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 75 66 79 64 84 / 60 60 60 90 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 75 66 77 65 82 / 60 70 70 90 40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 76 68 77 68 81 / 60 60 70 80 50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 74 67 79 66 83 / 60 70 60 90 30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 75 68 79 66 84 / 60 70 60 90 30

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

646 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

.AVIATION...
-SHRA ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS
MORNING. SHRA WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TODAY AND REMAIN
SCT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLD/SCT TSRA WILL DEVELOP
MIDDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. HAVE GONE VCSH/-SHRA AT THE
TAF SITES...EXCEPT VCTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. IFR
CIGS WILL PREVAIL WITH PATCHY LIFR CIGS AND IFR/MVFR VSBYS THIS
MORNING. CIGS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS
SHRA BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. CIGS FALL BACK TO IFR WITH PATCHY LIFR
CIGS AND IFR/MVFR VSBYS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. NELY WINDS
LESS THAN 10 KTS MOST AREAS WILL SLOWLY TURN SELY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING. EXCEPT SELY WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS WILL PREVAIL ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE AND EDWARDS PLATEAU.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015/

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

341 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...GOOD CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL THE NEXT 48 HOURS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. A MOIST MID
AND UPPER LEVEL TAP FROM THE PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE OVERHEAD. THE
LOWEST LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY RELATIVELY DRY BEHIND YESTERDAYS COLD
FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WHERE DEW POINTS ARE IN
THE LOW 50S. THIS WILL MODIFY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MORNING...AND LOW LEVEL H85 THETA-E
ADVECTION SETS UP OVER THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW. PWAT VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5-1.7 INCHES BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CLOSER TO 1.8-1.9 INCHES EAST OF I-35 SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...WELL ABOVE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF THE MEAN FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WARM FRONT LIFTING BACK THROUGH THE AREA
WILL SERVE AS FOCUS FOR FORCING TODAY. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO
THE HRRR AND SREF THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS...WHICH SEEM TO BE
RELATIVELY BETTER WITH ONGOING CONVECTION SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
CWA. WITH NO CAP IN PLACE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MID MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN CWA AND EXPANDING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...DRIER AIR DOES WORK INTO THE
RIO GRANDE AND HILL COUNTRY ON MONDAY WITH DECREASING POPS WEST TO
EAST. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EVENTUALLY OPENS AND SHEARS NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS SOUTH-
CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY. SHOULD SEE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY WITH DEEP MOISTURE STILL POOLED ALONG AND
EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. EVENTUALLY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEEPENS THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...SENDING A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL TAP FROM
THE PACIFIC CONTINUING IT APPEARS ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIP
WILL OCCUR DURING THIS TIME. DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX

1231 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

.AVIATION...
Some showers possible later tonight into Saturday morning though
lightning will be isolated. Some MVFR CIGs are possible near
sunrise with MAF the most likely TAF site to be affected. The last
half of the TAF period appears very favorable for aviation
interests.

Hennig

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 150 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SE-E surface winds have increased across the Trans Pecos/PB this PM
as surface high moves e and surface pressure falls. Upslope flow per
mesoscale models (TTU WRF, NAM12, HRRR) looks well organized, enuf
so that dwpnts will increase to near 50 on on east slopes of Davis
Mtns and M50s thru Glass Mtns. Instability looks to be modulated by
mid level LRs of 7.5 C/KM and 0-1km CAPES increase by 00Z to near
1500 J/KG in said area. Looks to be a good set-up for tstms to
initiate in the mtns where SB CINH not much of an issue and then
move e-ne. Kinematics are also favorable for severe wx (large hail)
with 0-6 km bulk shear 40-50kts. In this set-up, the surface thermal
ridge and axis of highest dwpnts are near co-located. HRRR develops
QPF at 22Z NW of FST and depicts what may well be a right-moving
supercell across Pecos Co later this PM. Overnight there is an
indication that the arrival energy assocd shrtwv trof in the sw flow
aloft and 40kt LLJ may renew the development of convection,
especially s of I-20. Convective potential will wane Sat, but still
exists. Isold-Sct tstms INVOF Davis/Glass Mtns and across the ern PB,
respectively. Sunday more robust PoPs are warranted with backed mid
level flow ahead of an upper low sw of El Paso City, helping to hold
low level mstr in place. 5h jet of 50-60kts will help provide lift.
0-6km bulk shear increases late, but LR/s are not very good, so for
now severe potential looks to be minimized. There`s enuf of a backed
flow/mstr/potential for rain cooled air to keeps temps INVOF of
normal ranges thru Sunday. Said low will lift newd to w-nw of MAF
and this will increase the PoPs Monday n of the area, moreso in the
LBB area. However cool mid levels near the center of low will be
enough to keep sct PoPs, especially along n of I-20. An assocd cold
front will pass thru the area either Mon PM or Mon night, so cooler
and drier Tue. Another front will be possible Wed night/Thursday
morning, so cool/dry for Thur PM. We`ll watch for the potential for
low level mstr return Friday which will augment PoPs.

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

746 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COASTLINE TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...A COOL AND MOIST WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FORM ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS...AND REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM EST TUESDAY...

CURRENT GRIDDED FORECAST STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TARGET. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE DELMARVA COASTLINE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS OVER THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA HAVE
VEERED INTO THE SOUTHEAST...BRINGING RISING DEW POINTS...AND WILL
EVENTUALLY RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER CLOUD DECK IN UPSLOPE
AREAS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

BASED ON THE LATEST RUNS OF THE LOCAL WRF AND HRRR MODELS...DEPTH
OF THE MOIST LAYER AND FORCED UPSLOPE ASCENT SHOULD BECOME
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH BY/WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
EASTERN FLANKS OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN NW NC TO BEGIN MARGINAL THREAT
FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE...WITH THREAT/COVERAGE GRADUALLY
INCREASING/SPREADING NE INTO THE EASTERN FLANKS OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN
SW VA...MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF HILLSVILLE VA...BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

WITH CONTINUED INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND CLOUDS AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT PLUMMET AS THEY DID LAST
NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST LOWS OF MID 40S TO LOWER 50S THEREFORE
STILL LOOK QUITE REASONABLE.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO EXISTING SET OF GRIDS OTHER
THAN TO MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT LATEST HOURLY
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT TRENDS.

AS OF 245 PM EDT SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER DELAWARE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED
SOUTHWEST FROM MICHIGAN TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THEN
FARTHER SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THROUGH LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...THIS COLD FRONT WILL MAKE GRADUAL PROGRESSION
EASTWARD...BEING NEAR A LINE FROM WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO CENTRAL
KENTUCKY TO SOUTH TEXAS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL FLOW IN
ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...AND HAVE
ITS ORIGINS FROM OFF THE GA/SC COAST...STREAMING MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THAT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HAVE
VEERED A BIT MORE...AND WE WILL START TO SEE LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES THAT HAVE THEIR ORIGIN FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. EITHER WAY...THE SOLUTION POINTS TOWARDS ONE WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA...AS WELL
AS...PRECIPITATION.

WHILE HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING...WE WILL START TO SEE AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF FIRST MID-
LEVEL...AND THEN LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER FIRST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. HERE THE LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES WILL
TAKE ON AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT...HELPING TO ADD TO THE CLOUD COVER
PRODUCTION AND EVENTUAL ONSET OF LIGHT RAIN. THE FIRST PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. BY SUNRISE MONDAY...THE
PATCHY COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND NORTH INTO THE GRAYSON
HIGHLAND REGION OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER...AND HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION...LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE MILDER THAN
THOSE REALIZED THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 FOR
LOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST ARE TONIGHT. HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 MAY SEE A MIX OF LOW TO MID 40S.

WHAT IS EXPECTED TO START TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE AND EXPAND IN
COVERAGE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. ANTICIPATE THE LIGHT RAIN TO TREND
MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION BREAKS...AND SOME
DAYTIME HEATING MAKES ITS CONTRIBUTION. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ALONG
THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS SOUTHWEST OF ROANOKE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. IN THE AFTERNOON...THIS SAME REGION WILL SEE EVEN
GREATER COVERAGE...AND POTENTIALLY RAINFALL RATES IN THE MODERATE
CATEGORY. COVERAGE OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTH TO
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...AND SOUTHEAST INTO PARTS OF SOUTHSIDE
VIRGINIA AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TOMORROW ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
DANVILLE TO LEXINGTON. THIS IS ALSO THE REGION THAT WILL HAVE THE
LEAST CLOUD COVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID
70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MOST OF THE MOUNTAIN REGIONS WILL
EXPERIENCE HIGHS IN THE 60S...WITH THE LOW END OF THIS RANGE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS RANGE
WILL BE THE AREA BETWEEN ROUGHLY RICHLANDS VA TO HINTON WV. THE
PREVAILING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL YIELD SOME DOWNSLOPE COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING HERE THAT WILL HELP REALIZE HIGHS CLOSER TO 70 DEGREES...OR
EVEN THE LOWER 70S.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT SUNDAY...

COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT AND WILL BE OVER THE CAROLINAS BY LATE
TUESDAY AND OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN THE NORTHERN HIGH AND CAROLINA
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWED A 5KFT-
10KFT LAYER OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS BEHIND THE
FRONT. EXPECTING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UPSLOPE LIFT ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ROANOKE.

WILL BE INCREASING PROBABILITY OF RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER
THE SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA AND IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ONCE THE LOW MOVES
OFFSHORE...EXPECT IN-SITU WEDGE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE
APPALACHIANS AND RAIN CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY. WILL HAVE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...

LONG RANGE MODELS THE PAST FEW RUNS HAVE BEEN EVOLVING INTO A SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN. NORTHERN STREAM WAVE BRING A SURFACE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. UNTIL
THEN PIECES OF ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL RESULT IN A
PERSISTENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THURSDAY. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND SURFACE BASED WEDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON
THURSDAY. BETTER PUSH OF DRIER AIR MAY COME IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ONCE THE WEDGE BREAKS...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT SUNDAY...

CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST FLIGHT CATEGORIES AND WEATHER IS MODERATE
TO HIGH THROUGH MONDAY.

AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE EVENING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY A
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS LAYER...WITH SOME AC.

OVERNIGHT...THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE WITH LOW LVLS
STARTING TO MOISTEN UP. MAIN ISSUE IS HOW FAST CAN THE LOWER
LAYERS GAIN HIGHER RH. THINK THE MODELS ESPECIALLY THE NAM IS
OVERDONE WITH LOW CIGS SUB MVFR TOWARD MORNING. HEDGED TOWARD MVFR
AT TIMES IN THE MORNING THEN HAVE VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON EXCEPT
HANGING ONTO MVFR AT BLF. COULD SEE SPRINKLES AS FAR NORTH AS
ROA/BCB/DAN LATE IN THE DAY WITH LIGHT RAIN IN BLF AFTER 21Z.

THERE IS SOME HINT AT POSSIBLE FOG THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT
THIS WILL OCCUR GIVEN THE DRIER STATE OF THE LOW LVLS. AS SUCH DID
ADD TEMPO AT BLF/LWB FOR MVFR VSBYS BETWEEN 10-13Z MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST FLIGHT CATEGORIES AND WEATHER IS LOW TO
MODERATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

AS WE PROGRESS PAST THIS TAF PERIOD WILL SEE INCREASING COVERAGE
OF RAIN...WITH SUB VFR REACHING ALL SITES TUESDAY MORNING.

IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS WILL BE THE NORM ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
BE THE LOCATION FOR THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...AS A
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOSE
SOUTH ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...SETTING THE SCENE FOR A
COLD AIR DAMMING SCENARIO. AFTER A POTENTIAL BRIEF DECREASE IN
PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION AND MORE IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE
AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE
TIMING...BUT THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE ON THAT ALLOWS THE WEDGE TO
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PROGRESSING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
IMPROVEMENT TO FLIGHT CATEGORIES...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE AN ISSUE.

FRONT SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY...WITH VFR RETURNING BY
THE END OF THE DAY.

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 310 PM EDT SUNDAY...

SEVERAL ELEMENTS COMING TOGETHER BY TUESDAY THAT FAVOR HEAVY RAIN
ALONG AND EAST OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. MODELS WERE FORECASTING
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...STRONG UPSLOPE AND DECENT OVERRUNNING/ISENTROPIC
LIFT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES APPEAR LIKELY.
ISOLATED AMOUNTS ABOVE 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING.

WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS AND MINOR
FLOODING IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A VERY WET SYSTEM OVER THE GULF COAST TAKES SHAPE.
SUBSTANTIAL VARIATION EXISTS IN DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL
SOLUTIONS SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH AS TO HOW MUCH RAIN
WILL FALL AND ANY SUBSEQUENT RUNOFF ISSUES. HPC PLACED OUR SOUTHWEST
COUNTY WARNING AREA IN SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
FOR...12Z/8AM TUE TO 12Z/8AM WED.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/WERT
NEAR TERM...DS/WERT
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/WP
HYDROLOGY...AMS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

727 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM EST TUESDAY...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO EXISTING SET OF GRIDS OTHER
THAN TO MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT LATEST HOURLY
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT TRENDS.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT SUNDAY...

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT SUNDAY...

CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST FLIGHT CATEGORIES AND WEATHER IS MODERATE
TO HIGH THROUGH MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WAS NOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA. CLOCKWISE
FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WAS BEING REALIZED WITH SE-S FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR KBLF...AND THE LIGHTEST NEAR
KDAN. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THIS EVENING.

AS WE PROGRESS PAST ROUGHLY 06-09Z/2AM-5AM EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...INCREASING MOISTURE AT OR BELOW 850 MB IS EXPECTED TO
ADVECT INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AS
UPSTREAM TRAJECTORIES START TAPPING THE GULF OF MEXICO. LOOK FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW END VFR CIGS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
AFTER THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CREST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL
ADD TO THE CLOUD PRODUCTION POTENTIAL. THE TREND WILL CONTINUE
INTO DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY...WITH CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR LEVELS.
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND NEAR THE CREST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE STARTING LATE TONIGHT. BY 18Z/2PM TUESDAY...OUT OF OUR
SIX TERMINAL FORECAST LOCATIONS...KBCB WOULD HAVE A SMALL
POTENTIAL OF SEEING SOME BRIEF LIGHT RAIN...BUT CHANCES ARE STILL
MUCH BETTER THAT PRECIPITATION WILL NOT HAVE ARRIVED BY THAT
TIME...SO NO MENTION IS CURRENTLY BEING MADE WITHIN THE KBCB TAF.

MONDAY AFTERNOON...A GREATER PORTION OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL START EXPERIENCING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AGAIN WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION ALONG THE CREST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE SOUTHWEST OF KROA. CIGS WILL STILL BE MAINLY
MVFR...BUT POCKETS OF IFR FOR CIGS AND MVFR FOR VSBYS WILL START
APPEARING...ESPECIALLY IN THE AREA OF THE BEST FOCUS FOR RAIN.

CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST FLIGHT CATEGORIES AND WEATHER IS LOW TO
MODERATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE SHOWERS BECOME EVEN MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION AND
TAG TEAMS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PROGRESSING NORTHEAST
INTO THE REGION ALONG THE FRONT. IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS WILL BE
THE NORM ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA. THIS WILL BE THE LOCATION FOR THE GREATEST
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...AND EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST FLIGHT CATEGORIES AND WEATHER IS MODERATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 310 PM EDT SUNDAY...

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/WERT
NEAR TERM...DS/WERT
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS
HYDROLOGY...AMS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

534 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1251 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL
GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN THE MID 60S AND LOW 70S. FAIR WEATHER AND
HIGHS IN THE 60S RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

A VIGOROUS UPPER MIDWEST MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKING NORTHEAST
INTO NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL FORCE A TRAILING COLD FRONT ESE
THROUGH WESTERN ZONES LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON...AND AREAS
EAST OF I-69 BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. PRE-FRONTAL COMPOSITE OUTFLOW
FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION AND THIS PRIMARY SFC CDFNT LOOKS TO OUTRUN
BETTER MID-UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS STRONGER MID LEVEL PV ADVECTION
PASSES NNW OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS (SEE 00Z AREA RAOBS) AND UNCERTAINTIES
REGARDING EXACT TIMING REMAIN THE MAIN REASONS FOR NOT BUMPING
POPS SIGNIFICANTLY...ALTHOUGH UPSTREAM MOSAIC RADAR TRENDS,
RELATIVELY SHARP/DEEP CONVERGENCE WITH FRONTAL CIRC, AND AMPLE
MOISTURE IN NARROW PRE-FRONTAL THETA-E RIDGE (850 MB DEWPOINTS TO
10C) SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCT-NUM COVERAGE ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL FEATURES. CONVERGENCE DOES WEAKEN AS IT
TRANSLATES INTO AREAS ALONG/EAST OF I-69 THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD BE OFFSET BY GROWING BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION AS SFC
DEWPOINTS PUSH INTO THE 50S AND SFC AMBIENT TEMPS ATTEMPT A RUN AT
THE LOW-MID 70S. CLOUD COVER AND WARM PROFILE ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT
MLCAPE TO NEAR 500 J/KG AND UPDRAFT STRENGTH. AS A RESULT NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN AN ISO STRONG STORM (ISOLATED WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH/SMALL HAIL) WITH ANY BL ROOTED CONVECTION THAT
FIRES THIS AFTERNOON IN NW OH. AS FOR EARLY-MID MORNING...APPROACHING
PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN/THIN BY THE TIME
IT REACHES DRIER AIR IN NW IN/SW LOWER MI. HOWEVER...DID RETAIN
LIKELY POPS (USING LATEST HRRR PROJECTIONS FOR TIMING) AND ADDED A
THUNDER MENTION BACK IN GIVEN RESPECTABLE MOISTURE FLUX/THETA-E
SURGE TIMED WITH 40-50 KT LLJ LIFT INTO THE LOWER LAKES.
OTHERWISE...MODEST SHOT OF POST FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION AND OVERSPREAD
OF DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL SUPPORT A QUIET/CLEAR/COOLER
PERIOD TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

A RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD ON TUESDAY
IN WAKE OF DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. RE-AMPLIFICATION OF MID/UPPER
LEVEL WAVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED LATER TUESDAY AS MORE SIGNIFICANT
EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH REACHES WEST COAST...ALLOWING FOR
AMPLIFICATION OF CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGING. DRY LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW WILL PERSIST FOR LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF SFC ANTICYCLONE SHIFTING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DOWNSTREAM OF WEAK CUT-OFF PV ANOMALY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THAT WILL BE VERY SLOWLY TRACKING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE
MIDDLE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH A BIT COOLER NEAR THE LAKE
WHERE SOME ONSHORE FLOW COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.

EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY
KEEPING A DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS ANCHORED ACROSS THE REGION. LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO VEER MORE SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
AFOREMENTIONED WEAK PV ANOMALY FINALLY GETS NUDGED BY MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WESTERN CONUS TROUGH TAKING SHAPE. WHILE ISENTROPIC
ASCENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...AN AXIS OF FAIRLY
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TIED TO WIND DIRECTIONAL
CONVERGENCE MAY PRECEDE THIS WEAK PV ANOMALY AND HAVE MADE LITTLE IF
ANY CHANGE TO PREVIOUS CHANCE RAIN SHOWER POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CHANCE POPS WERE ALSO CONTINUED INTO THURSDAY WITH WEAK UPPER VORT
MAX FINALLY TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA COINCIDING WITH BRIEF DURATION
OF SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES. SOME ISOLD THUNDER IS A
POSSIBILITY ON THURSDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE DUE
TO EXPECTED MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK NATURE OF FORCING.

FOR FRI-SUN...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE CONVERGED SOMEWHAT ON THE
TREND OF THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL CYCLES IN A MORE CUT-OFF EVOLUTION TO
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH...WITH NOW SUGGESTIONS THAT FORCING
WITH THIS CUT-OFF WAVE MAY NOT REACH LOCAL AREA UNTIL LATE WEEKEND
OR MONDAY WHEN A POTENTIAL OF BETTER PHASING MAY EXIST WITH MORE
PRONOUNCED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. FOR THIS REASON...MOST OF WEEKEND
PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT. ONE WILDCARD IN THIS FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL OF ANY
STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM WAVES THAT COULD FORCE WEAK SFC TROUGHS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SOME TIME IN THE SATURDAY-SUNDAY
PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP IS TOO LOW FOR
MENTIONABLE POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WITH STRONGER BAROCLINICITY
FOR THIS PERIOD TIED TO NORTHERN STREAM...DAY TO DAY THERMAL
ADVECTIONS SHOULD REMAIN WEAK FOR LOCAL AREA WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS
FOR MID-LATE APRIL CONTINUING.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO CLEAR KSBN BTW 16-18Z AND KFWA BTW 18-19Z.
SHOWERS/ISO THUNDER AND THE CHANCE FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF A HIGH
MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN NARROW/CONVERGENT PRE-
FRONTAL PLUME OF MOISTURE THIS MORNING AT KSBN AND LATER
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AT KFWA. VFR/DRY POST FRONTAL THEREAFTER.

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

405 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1251 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

NO CHANGES MADE TO INHERITED TAFS WITH FRONTAL TIMING AND SCT
SHOWER CHANCES STILL ON TRACK. COULD SEE A PERIOD OF HIGH MVFR
CIGS WITHIN NARROW LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS DIRECTLY ALONG THE
FRONTAL SLOPE...BETTER CHANCES AT KFWA. CONTINUED TO OMIT THUNDER
MENTION FOR NOW GIVEN LOW PROBABILITY/LIMITED INSTABILITY. VFR/DRY
WITH DIMINISHING WINDS INTO LATER THIS AFTN/EVE.

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

446 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ADVANCING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS WITH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE FROM QUEBEC
DOWN THROUGH THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT
EXTENDED THROUGH NW ONTARIO...WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO ERN IA FROM A
LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT AN AREA OF SCT SHRA HAS
MOVED INTO WRN UPPER MI EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME ISOLD T-STORMS WERE
EMBEDDED WITH THIS SHRA ACTIVITY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF 200-300 J/KG
OF MUCAPE AND MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM.

TODAY...WITH THE ADVANCING MID LEVEL TROUGH TAKING ON A MORE NEG-
TILT...THIS HAS SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT
EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS NOW INDICATE THE ERN THIRD OF UPPER MI
WILL STAY DRY THROUGH 12Z. AS THE SFC FRONT SLOWLY ADVANCES ACROSS
THE FCST AREA...EXPECT SHRA COVERAGE TO INCREASE TO NUMEROUS INTO
THE WRN HALF OF UPPER MI EARLY THIS MORNING (BEFORE 12Z) IN RESPONSE
TO MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300 QVECTOR CONV SPREADING INTO THE AREA
AND STRENGTHENING 800-600 MB FGEN AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING MID LEVEL
TROUGH. THE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS SPREADING E WITH THE MVMT OF THE MID-
LVL TROF WILL THEN ALLOW THE NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO
SPREAD INTO THE ERN HALF OF UPPER MI AFTER 12Z. ALTHOUGH ONLY
MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG IS FCST WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES SLIGHTLY BLO 0C...DECIDED TO KEEP A MENTION OF
THUNDER IN THE FCST AT LEAST INTO THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET NEAR 50 KT WL BE NOSING INTO THE AREA TO
ENHANCE LIFT/INSTABILITY.

STRONG QVECTOR DIV AND DRYING IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO UPPER MI FM
THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF OVER THE FAR EAST.
HOWEVER...WITH DROPPING 600-500 MB TEMPS RESULTING IN A NEARLY DRY
ADIABATIC PROFILE AND MIXING HEIGHT TO NEAR 15K FT...GUSTY WNW WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THE STRONGEST WRLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE TYPICALLY FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW WHERE GUSTS TO
40 MPH ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. THE HIGH SFC-600MB LAPSE RATES WILL
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES/VIRGA
DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON...AND ANY SHRA WHICH OCCUR MAY
FURTHER ENHANCE GUSTY WINDS. THE HIGH MIXING DEPTH WILL BRING DOWN
MUCH DRIER AIR ALLOWING DEWPOINTS TO DROP INTO THE TEENS OVER THE
WRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WITH RH VALUES TO NEAR 20 PCT.

THE DEEP MIXING AND DRYING DURING THE DAY MAY ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO
DROP A BIT MORE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AND UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND PWATS
FCST BLO .25 INCH. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW PRES TROUGH
TO THE EAST AND ADVANCING RDG OVER THE PLAINS MAY ALLOW JUST
ENOUGH WIND/MIXING TO KEEP TEMPS FM BOTTOMING OUT TOO FAR...BUT
STILL WL LIKELY SEE READINGS DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S OVER A FEW OF
THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OVER THE WRN INTERIOR. RH RECOVERY WILL BE
POOR DUE TO DRY CONDITIONS AND WIND WITH MAX RH ONLY REACHING AROUND
60 PRECENT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

MILD AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO START THE PERIOD BEFORE
SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN ARRIVE ON A SERIES OF TROUGHS THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT TO OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY EVENING. AN ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH WILL CROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...WITH THE CENTER PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA. WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY...LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. THIS MAY PUT AN EARLY
BRAKE ON TEMPS ALONG THE LAKESHORES...BUT HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN
THE 50S TO LOW 60S...WARMEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST. RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN HIGHS ABOUT 5F
WARMER ON WEDNESDAY. GOOD MIXING INTO A DECENT INVERSION SHOULD
YIELD WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON.

AS FOR FIRE WX CONCERNS...MUCH OF THE SNOWPACK WAS REMOVED FROM THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF UPPER MI ON SUNDAY...AND TOOK A BIG HIT ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF. SUBSTANTIAL DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY WITH VERY LOW
RH VALUES AND GUSTY WINDS. ON TUESDAY...MIXING INTO AN EXTREMELY DRY
LAYER BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KFT WILL YIELD AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE MID
TEENS. THIS WILL AGAIN RESULT IN ABUNDANT DRYING...THOUGH WINDS WILL
BE RATHER LIGHT. HIGHER FIRE WX CONCERNS WILL THEREFORE EXIST FOR
WEDNESDAY AS SHORT TERM FIRE WX INDICIES REACH FAVORABLE LEVELS FOR
GRASS/BRUSH FIRES. WHILE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 10 TO 15
MPH GUSTING TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE WEST...TEMPS ABOUT 15F ABOVE
AVERAGE AND LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE UPPER 10S TO MID 20S
INLAND WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS FOR LOCATIONS THAT HAVE
ALREADY LOST THEIR SNOWPACK. THIS INCLUDES POCKETS OF THE WEST AND
ESPECIALLY AN AREA SOUTH OF IRON MOUNTAIN...TO TRENARY...TO
MANISTIQUE.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WEAK TROUGHING CURRENTLY NEAR EL PASO
WILL SHIFT NE TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...BRUSHING THE CWA AND MERGING
WITH THE MID MS TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY. THE
ECMWF IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS AND CANADIAN GEM WITH
THE MERGER. HOWEVER...ALL THREE SHOW GULF MOISTURE STRUGGLING TO
REACH THIS FAR NORTH BEFORE THE TROUGHS ARRIVE. ADDITIONALLY...THE
BETTER FORCING FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET STREAK
REMAINS TO THE NORTH. GIVEN THOSE FACTORS AND THE ANTECEDENT VERY
DRY LOW LEVELS...ONLY PLACED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE GFS HAS COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE
ECMWF REGARDING A COMPACT SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...IN ADDITION TO GUSTY NW
WINDS ACROSS THE CWA. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN SAT AFTERNOON
AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN CANADA. AN
ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH MAY REACH THE WESTERN CWA LATE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SHRA MOVING IN ALONG FRONT LATE TONIGHT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA AND BE OUT OF HERE BY MON AFTERNOON. ALL SITES WILL BE
GUSTY MON BEHIND THE FRONT...AND BY EVENING...WINDS WILL DIE DOWN
WITH LESS MIXING OCCURRING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

BEHIND THE TROUGH/FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS
MORNING...EXPECT W WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 20 TO 30KT RANGE TODAY
WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE
IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING WINDS DOWN UNDER 20
KNOTS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS
HYDROLOGY...TITUS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

301 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

MILD AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO START THE PERIOD BEFORE
SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN ARRIVE ON A SERIES OF TROUGHS THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
HYDROLOGY...TITUS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

130 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ266.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
HYDROLOGY...TITUS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

120 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.AVIATION...

LEAD EDGE OF VIRGA MOVED OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...BUT IT DID
MOISTEN THE AIR MASS ENOUGH FOR LATER SHOWERS TO REACH THE GROUND
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. THOSE SHOWERS SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND LIGHT
ENOUGH THAT THEY WONT BE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE ALOT OF MID
CLOUD UNTIL THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY
MORNING. UNTIL THEN STRONG SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL HAVE GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING ON MONDAY.
MVFR TO BORDERLINE IFR SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL BE
LIKELY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN 14Z AND 20Z. WILL ADD
THUNDER TO THE DETROIT CORRIDOR TAF SITES GIVEN THE LATER FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND TIME TO DESTABILIZE. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WINDS WILL
BECOME WEST AND CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND 25 KNOTS.

FOR DTW...WIND WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY LATE
MONDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS. CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IFR VISIBILITIES IN A NARROW TWO HOUR WINDOW WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 20Z MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM ON CEILING AT OR BELOW 5000 FT 14Z TO 20Z MONDAY.

* MEDIUM THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 925 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015

UPDATE...
00Z DTX SOUNDING WAS VERY DRY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER OF ONLY 0.39
INCHES. DO NOT SEE MUCH TO CHANGE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. THAT
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO EAT AWAY AT THE REMNANT MCV
SHOWERS...LEAVING NOTHING MORE THAN VIRGA AND SPRINKLES. 18Z
MODEL SUITE AND SUBSEQUENT RUNS OF THE RAP AND HRRR INDICATE VERY
LITTLE RAIN TONIGHT. HOWEVER...AS THE THETA-E SURGE MOVES OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 09Z-12Z A BETTER CHANCE OF A MEASURABLE
SHOWER.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 348 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015

SHORT TERM... LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

LONG TERM...

MARINE...

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LHZ421-422-441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ444.

AVIATION.....RBP
UPDATE.......RBP
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....JVC/DE
MARINE.......JVC

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

108 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 415 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

Tonight:

Monday - Tuesday:

Wednesday/Wednesday night:

Thursday - Sunday:

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 108 AM CDT MON APR 13 2015

Line of storms exiting most of the KC area at this time with some
light rain and a few in-cloud lightning strikes likely to linger
through 08Z or 09Z. Low clouds will scatter out by 12Z with just some
scattered mid-level clouds for the remainder of the period.

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Hawblitzel

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

403 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND
BRING SOME PATCHY CLOUDS WITH IT. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SPRING SEASON TO
OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST LOCATIONS GETTING INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER THIS FRONT PASSES BY,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH DOWN FROM CANADA WITH FAIR WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 60 DEGREES.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WAVE WAS
MOISTURE STARVED AND WAS SUPPORTING MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS. LATEST
RAP AND HRRR BRING THIS WAVE ACROSS NORTHEAST PA AND CENTRAL NY BY
15-18Z WITH ONLY SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH IT. RADARS TO OUR WEST SHOW SOME SPOTTY PRECIP
ECHOES MAKING THEIR WAY THROUGH A MAJOR BIRD MIGRATION PATTERN
WHICH CAN BE SEEN ACROSS NY AND PA AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST EARLY
THIS MORNING. SO WILL HAVE CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FIRST SHORT WAVE.

AFTER THIS FIRST WAVE PASSES BY SOME CIRRUS AND PATCHY MIDDLE
CLOUD WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT AND
MORE POTENT UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS WAVE WILL MAKE IT TO NORTHERN AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY 00Z.
SO MORE PATCHY CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.

AS FOR THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION NO MODEL HAS ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT BEFORE 00Z. WE LOOKED AT THE
FOLLOWING MODELS AND ALL SHOW NO QPF AND/OR RADAR RETURNS IN
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PA BEFORE 00Z TUE: 00Z NAM...00Z
GFS...00Z UKMET...00Z CMC...00Z RGEM...00Z WRF ARW...00Z WRF
NMM...LATEST RAP...00Z 2.5 KM CANADIAN MODEL...12Z EURO AND THE
21Z SREF. THE 21Z SREF AND 00Z GFS HAVE SOME VERY LIGHT QPF(.01
INCH) WITH THIS FIRST UPPER WAVE WHICH DOESN/T LOOK LIKE IT WILL
PAN OUT BASED ON OBS UPSTREAM. SO HAVE POPS LESS THAN 15 PCT
BEFORE 00Z TUE ALL ZONES.

FOR TONIGHT...MODEL CONSENSUS FROM ALL OF THE ABV MODELS BRINGS A
LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TO THE WRN FINGER LAKES BY
03Z...COOPERSTOWN TO BGM AND TOWANDA BY 6Z AND THE
CATSKILLS/POCONOS BTWN 9Z AND 12Z. CONCUR WITH BUF/S IDEA OF SOME
SORT OF LOW CAPE / HIGH SHEAR SQUALL LINE IN WRN NY AS THERE WILL
BE SOME MINIMAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN CAPE THERE. TIMING OF FRNT
SUGGESTS THAT THIS CAPE WILL BECOME ELEVATED BY NIGHTFALL WITH NEG
SHOWALTER INDICES AND SFC BASED CAPES DROPPING OFF OVERNIGHT. 0-1
KM BULK SHEAR IS ABOUT 40 KNOTS WITH 0-3 KM ABOUT 45 KNOTS OR SO.
SINCE THE CONVECTIVE SHRA ARE STRONGLY FORCED THE SHEAR LIKELY
WON/T RIP APART THE UPRIGHT CONVECTION. SO WE SEE A SQUALL LINE
WITH SOME THUNDER MOVING TOWARD THE FINGER LAKES BY 00Z THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY GO ELEVATED AS IT REACHES THE FINGER LAKES BY 1-3Z BUT
WITH NEG SHOWALTER INDICES STILL HAVE CHC FOR THUNDER AS THE
FRONT GOES THROUGH ENTIRE AREA OVERNIGHT. I DON/T BELIEVE OUR
AREA IS UNDER RISK FOR ANY SEVERE CONVECTION AS BNDRY LAYER
COOLING BTWN 3-9Z WILL TAKE PLACE AS ACVTY MOVES THRU PRECLUDES ANY
STRG DOWNDRAFTS FROM REACHING THE GROUND WITH FULL FORCE. I CAN
SEE SOME GUSTS TO 35-40 KNOTS OR SO BRIEFLY ESP IN THE FINGER
LAKES AREA.

QPF WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE ARND .25 TO .50 INCHES AND WILL NOT
CAUSE ANY HYDRO ISSUES AT THIS POINT EXCEPT KEEP RIVERS AND
STREAMS RUNNING HIGH WITH NO FLOOD ISSUES THRU MID-WEEK.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER FROPA ON TUESDAY...ASIDE FROM SOME ISOLATED SHRA LINGERING
IN THE POCONOS/WRN CATSKILLS BTWN 12Z AND 14Z REST OF C NY AND NE
PA WILL SEE NO PRECIP AS AGAIN MODEL CONSENSUS IS DRY. LOOKING AT
850 MB TEMPS AND SFC DEWPOINTS IT DOESN/T EVEN LOOK LIKE MUCH CU
FORMS TUE EXCEPT IN NC NY WHERE COLDER AIR AT 850 MB WILL BE
PRESENT TUESDAY. MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND
COOLER.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND LASTS THROUGH WED
AND WED NGT WITH FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH
MAXES REACHING INTO CLOSE TO OR ABOVE 60F EACH DAY.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
400 AM UPDATE...
OVERALL...THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS PRETTY CLOSE TO EARLIER
THINKING AS 00Z GUIDANCE WAS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF THE NEED FOR ANY
MAJOR SWING. MODELS AGREE THAT THE PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE
TO START WITH FAST MOVING TRANSIENT SYSTEMS EVERY OTHER DAY. DID
MAKE CHANGES TO PUSH BACK ON SHOWER CHANCES FOR THURS-THURS
EVENING AS MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF A MID-LVL TROF LOOKS SLOWER
WITH HIGH PRESSURE HANGING ON THE EAST COAST. FRIDAY-SATURDAY
STILL LOOKS DAMP WITH PASSING COLD FRONTS AND A LOW SKIRTING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. HIGH PRESSURE...BUT A COOLER THAN NORMAL
AIRMASS ARRIVES ON SUNDAY THEN TRANSITS OFFSHORE BY MONDAY. THE
MODELS THEN DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR MONDAY...BUT THIS IS TO BE
EXPECTED AS MANY OF THE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL
SPRING BLOCKING PATTERN TRYING TO SET UP ACROSS THE NRN
HEMISPHERE. LET`S HOPE WE WIND UP ON THE GOOD SIDE OF THAT ONE.

TEMPERATURES ROUND OUT THE WEEK IN SEASONABLE FASHION WITH COOLER
THAN NORMAL SUNDAY-MONDAY.

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
150 AM UPDATE...MAIN AVIATION CONCERN TODAY WILL BE STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND GUSTY LOW LVL TURBULENCE. EXPECT LIGHT E-SE
LOCAL DRAINAGE FLOWS EARLY TODAY FOLLOWED BY WINDS VEERING S-SSW
AND INCRG 10-20 SUSTAINED...GUSTING 25-30 KTS BY LATE MORNING AND
THIS AFTN AHEAD OF APCHG COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT SNAPS WINDS AROUND
TO W-NW JUST PRIOR TO END OF FCST PERIOD AT 10-15 KTS.

VFR WITH INCRG MID-HIGH LVL CIGS TODAY AND THIS EVENING...LOWERING
CONSIDERABLY AROUND FROPA WITH AREAS MVFR IN SHOWERS. FRONT HAS A
LITTLE ENERGY WITH IT...BUT FOR NOW THE CHC FOR TSRA SEEMS LOW.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE...BECMG VFR.

WED-THU...VFR.

THU NGT-FRI...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA.

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE WILL APPROACH RED FLAG CODITIONS IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS WILL EXCEED 20 MPH IN NORTHEAST PA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH 10 HOUR FUELS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. MAIN QUESTION
IS WHETHER DEWPOINTS LOW ENUF WITH MAX TEMPS HIGH ENUF. MODELS
DEWPOINTS AS WELL AS MAX TEMPERATURE BRING RH/S DOWN TO THE LOWER
30S PERCENT SO WE APPROACH RED FLAG CRITERIA IN NORTHEAST PA.
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING NWS OFFICES NO RED FLAG
WARNINGS ISSUED THIS SHIFT BUT IT COULD COME CLOSE IN A FEW SPOTS
IN NORTHEAST PA THIS AFTERNOON. IN CENTRAL NY WE DON/T MEET THE 5
DAY LESS THAN QUARTER INCH OF RAIN CRITERIA SO NO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS FOR NEW YORK STATE.

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAB
FIRE WEATHER...DJN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

320 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

QPF WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE ARND .25 TO .50 INCHES AND WILL NOT
CAUSE ANY HYDRO ISSUES AT THIS POINT EXCEPT KEEP RIVERS AND
STREAMS RUNNING HIGH WITH NO FLOOD ISSUES THRU MID-WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND LASTS THROUGH WED
AND WED NGT WITH FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH
MAXES REACHING INTO CLOSE TO OR ABOVE 60F EACH DAY.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE...

FAIRLY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR UNSETTLED
WEATHER COMING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND. AN H5 RIDGE WILL KEEP OUR AREA DRY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS OR IN THE 60S.

BY EARLY FRIDAY THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS A SHORT WAVE
MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCES FOR
RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER A PERIOD OF
DRIER WEATHER LATER FRIDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER. THIS FRONT WILL
KEEP TEMPS MORE IN THE 50S OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DRIER
WEATHER AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY.

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
150 AM UPDATE...MAIN AVIATION CONCERN TODAY WILL BE STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND GUSTY LOW LVL TURBULENCE. EXPECT LIGHT E-SE
LOCAL DRAINAGE FLOWS EARLY TODAY FOLLOWED BY WINDS VEERING S-SSW
AND INCRG 10-20 SUSTAINED...GUSTING 25-30 KTS BY LATE MORNING AND
THIS AFTN AHEAD OF APCHG COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT SNAPS WINDS AROUND
TO W-NW JUST PRIOR TO END OF FCST PERIOD AT 10-15 KTS.

VFR WITH INCRG MID-HIGH LVL CIGS TODAY AND THIS EVENING...LOWERING
CONSIDERABLY AROUND FROPA WITH AREAS MVFR IN SHOWERS. FRONT HAS A
LITTLE ENERGY WITH IT...BUT FOR NOW THE CHC FOR TSRA SEEMS LOW.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE...BECMG VFR.

WED-THU...VFR.

THU NGT-FRI...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA.

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...HEDEN/JAB
FIRE WEATHER...DJN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

312 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS
MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING ON
WEDNESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 312 AM MONDAY...

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD TODAY. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
RETREATING HIGH WILL ADVECT A MOIST AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL NC.
SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIP WATER PRODUCT SUGGEST PW VALUES JUST OVER
AN INCH IMMEDIATELY TO OUR SW WITH POTENTIAL FOR US TO TAP INTO
PRECIP WATER VALUES NEAR 1.6 INCHES BY TONIGHT/TUESDAY.

THUS...EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUD COVER ADVANCE NEWD
DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. WHILE WESTERN AREAS WILL PROBABLY SEE
MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN...LOCATIONS FROM RDU EAST MAY SEE A DECENT
DISPLAY OF SUN UNTIL EARLY-MID AFTERNOON AT WHICH TIME CLOUDS SHOULD
BE THICKENING.

WRF MODELS AS WELL AS THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST POTENTIAL
FOR PATCHY LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP ALONG OUR WESTERN PERIPHERY BY MID-
LATE MORNING. WHILE NEAR TERM MODELS CURRENTLY VERIFYING WELL WITH
THE RAIN COVERAGE OVER SC...FEEL THAT THE PROJECTION OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DEVELOPING BEFORE NOON IN THE WEST A BIT PRE MATURE AS
MECHANISM TO GENERATE LIFT LACKING. IF SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN WERE TO
DEVELOP...MAX TEMPS OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES MAY REMAIN IN THE
60S.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 312 AM MONDAY...

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...INCREASING SLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
GULF MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL NC. MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS
IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL TRAVERSE OUR REGION. A S/W CROSSING THE
GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL DRAG A SFC COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
TOWARD CENTRAL NC. LIFT PROVIDED BY THE PERTURBATIONS ALOFT AS WELL
AS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS TO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...MAINLY OVER THE
NW THIRD OF THE CWA...WITH SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EXPECTED
EVERYWHERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FAIRLY DEEP SWLY FLOW IN THE MID-
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MAY CAUSE SHOWERS TO MOVE REPEATEDLY
OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS...LEADING TO LOCALLY HEAVY/EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THIS OCCURRENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY TUESDAY RATHER
THAN TONIGHT....AND MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT INTO THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. ALSO ATMOSPHERE PROJECTED TO BE
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE 200 J/KG OR LESS WHILE
BULK SHEAR NOT MUCH HIGHER THAN 20-25KTS. THOUGH CANNOT ENTIRELY
RULE OUT A FEW STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...STORM THREAT APPEARS
FAIRLY LIMITED.

THE NUMEROUS-WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND OVERCAST SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WHICH VARY FROM NEAR 70 ACROSS THE FAR NORTH-NW
TO THE MID 70S FAR SOUTH. IF SHOWER COVERAGE LESS THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...HIGH TEMPS MAY END UP BEING 3-4 DEGREES WARMER.
ANOTHER CAVEAT...IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THE GULF COAST LATER
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THIS MAY INTERRUPT THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE CAROLINAS. THIS WOULD LEAD TO FEWER SHOWERS AND LOWER PRECIP
AMOUNTS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING ON THE HEELS OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM S/W WILL PUSH THE SFC COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL NC. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DECREASING SHOWER THREAT NORTH-TO-
SOUTH. MIN TEMPS LOW-MID 50S NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S-NEAR 60 SOUTH.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM MONDAY...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
MID TO LATE WEEK ACROSS THE REGION... WITH A GENERAL COOL MOIST
SURFACE AIRMASS IN PLACE THANKS TO A RATHER LENGTHY PERIOD OF COLD
AIR DAMMING EXPECTED. DETAILS CONTINUE TO REMAIN A BIT MURKY FOR
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER... THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP
LOOKS TO BE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... AS BRIEF MID
LEVEL S/W RIDGING PUSHES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THUS... PLAN TO RAISE POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND LOWER HIGH
TEMPS... WITH AN EXPECTED LOW DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT IN THE HEART OF THE DAMMING AIRMASS AT THIS TIME. HIGH
TEMPS MAY RECOVER SOME ON FRIDAY AS WE MAY SEE SOME DRYING WORK INTO
THE AREA FROM THE TOP DOWN AS A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE COAST BEGINS TO
SHIFT EASTWARD. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW DURING THIS
TIME AS SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS HIGHER
CHANCES FOR PRECIP OVER THE AREA.

WRT TO TEMPS... EXPECT HIGH TEMPS FOR THIS PERIOD TO GENERALLY RANGE
FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY. FOR
THURSDAY... WE MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT EVEN... AND THIS MAY NOT EVEN BE COOL ENOUGH. LOW
TEMPS SHOULD BE THE COOLEST ON THURSDAY MORNING (UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S)... WITH LOW TEMPS ON FRIDAY MORNING WARMER AS THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIP BEGIN TO DECREASE ALONG WITH THE MAIN SURFACE HIGH TO THE
NORTH MOVING WELL OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST BY THIS TIME.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT... WITH HIGH TEMPS RECOVERING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
FOR SATURDAY. WE MAY SEE A FEW/SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW
STORMS ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE IN THE FINER
DETAILS REMAINS QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER... MORE
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST ON SUNDAY WRT ANOTHER POTENTIAL DAMMING
EVENT. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SPREAD MOISTURE AND ENERGY BACK ACROSS
CENTRAL NC SUNDAY MORNING... WHILE THE LATEST ECMWF HOLD OFF ANY
PRECIP UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A
SILENT SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY.

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...

A RELATIVELY STABLE AND DRY AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NC EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUD COVER AND A HIGH PROBABILITY OF MVFR
CEILINGS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TRIAD TERMINALS AND POSSIBLY KFAY
PRIOR TO SUNSET...ALONG WITH SPOTS OF PATCHY LIGHT RAIN.

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEMS ALOFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF IFR/LOW END MVFR CEILINGS.

SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. THIS SUGGEST A HIGH PROBABILITY OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

THE COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO EXTEND SOUTH
INTO THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY. WHILE THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A
TEMPORARY END TO THE SHOWERS...RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE LOWER HALF
OF THE ATMOSPHERE MAY CAUSE A LAYER OF MVFR STRATUS TO OCCUR FOR
MOST OF WEDNESDAY.

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...POSSIBLY LEADING TO MORE PERIODS OF SUB VFR CEILINGS AND
PRECIP.

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

1137 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

WIND HAS DECOUPLED IN SPOTS AND ALMOST CALM...CAUSING TEMPS TO DIP
QUICKER THAN EXPECTED. LOWERED MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS SCENARIO...OTHERWISE FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

WINDS DIMINISH QUICKLY MON EVE AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STARTS TO
MOVE IN. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL AGAIN BECOME BREEZY/GUSTY AFTER SUNRISE.
THERE MAY BE SOME VFR CIGS THOUGH THE PERIOD.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER
AVIATION...TG
FIRE WEATHER...MAKOWSKI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

1216 AM CDT MON APR 13 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 855 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015/

DISCUSSION...00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WARM FRONT BISECTING
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM FORT SMITH ARKANSAS
BACK THROUGH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA.
VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS THIS EVENING INDICATE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES AS OF 8 PM CDT ARE IN THE LOWER 70S AT
MOST LOCATIONS. CHALLENGE THIS EVENING THUS FAR IS TIMING OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.

UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

CJC

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015/

DISCUSSION...

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY
WITH BEST CHANCES OCCURRING ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI DUE TO BEING
IN THE VICINITY OF THE STALLED FRONT.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S.

KRM

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE TAFS...ONLY SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF THE
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPCOMING INCLEMENT
WEATHER. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE NEXT
6 HOURS. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AND WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
SSE AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY MONDAY
MORNING. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 8 AND 12Z WITH IFR CIGS
FOLLOWING DURING THE LATE MORNING ON MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 09Z BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON PREVAILING RAINFALL
UNTIL 11-14Z...EARLIEST AT TUP AND MEM AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH. SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDER ON STATION YET...JUST VCTS AT
ALL SITES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SSE AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH
TOMORROW...SWITCHING TO THE NORTH TOMORROW EVENING AT MKL...JBR
AND MKL AS A COLD FRONT PASSES.

TVT

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM

321 AM MDT MON APR 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE BORDERLAND. UPPER LOW
NOW JUST SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS CONTINUING TO
PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. OVER THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 8000 FEET THE RAIN WILL BE MIXED WITH
SNOW TODAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND ALLOW THE SHOWERS TO BECOME ISOLATED AND LIGHT.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. ANOTHER UPPER LOW DROPS DOWN TO CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO THURSDAY AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES AGAIN. CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALL AREAS ON THURSDAY WITH THE
CHANCE CONTINUING OVER THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.DISCUSSION...
QUITE A MIXTURE OF FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM TO TALK ABOUT AS
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
UPPER LOW NOW JUST SOUTH OF TIMBERON AND IS FAIRLY WELL STACKED
VERTICALLY (MAKING CELL MOVEMENT LESS CONFUSING FOR TODAY). NICE
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE CWA. BLENDED TPW
PRODUCT SHOWS PWS OF .6 - .7 INCHES EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...THOUGH MODELS STILL SHOWING SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES. EXPECT
DECENT RAINFALL TO CONTINUE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH MOST OF
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS HAVE FALLEN
TO AROUND 8000 FT IN THE SACS. WEB CAMS IN THAT AREA HAVE SHOWN SOME
MIXED RAIN AND SNOW AS TEMPS ARE AT FREEZING OR JUST ABOVE. WITH
PRECIP POTENTIAL CONTINUING...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED SNOW ADVISORY
ABOVE 8000 FT IN THE SACS. LIKELY JUST WET SNOW WHICH IS EASY TO
MELT...DON`T EXPECT MUCH ACCUMULATION BUT A FEW SPOTS OF PACKED SNOW
CLOUD DEVELOP ON ROADWAYS. OUT WEST...CLOUDS WILL BE THINNER AND
SOME WARMING AND DESTABILIZATION LIKELY. ACTUALLY MAY BE ONLY PLACE
FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. BACKDOOR FRONT LATER THIS MORNING WILL
ALSO BRING WINDS UP. EARLIER HRRR RUNS HAD SHOWN QUITE STRONG NORTH
WINDS DOWN THE TULAROSA AND THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEYS...AND TOYED
WITH IDEA OF ADVISORY. BUT LAST RUN OR TWO OF THE HRRR...THOUGH
STILL QUITE BRISK...HAS BACKED OFF SOME.

LOW WELL OUT OF AREA BY TUESDAY BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTS.
SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS ARIZONA WILL MOVE OVER THIS MOISTURE
AND WITH PROGGED STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE UPLIFT...LEFT LOWER POPS IN
FOR MOST OF THE CWA TUE/TUE NIGHT. SAME STORY FOR WEDNESDAY...STRONG
SYNOPTIC LIFT AHEAD OF INCOMING LOW FROM THE NORTH SO KEPT THE POPS
IN.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER LOW WILL DROP DOWN TO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO ALL AREAS EARLY BUT ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MID DAY THURSDAY AND SCOURS OUT REMAINING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. UPPER LOW WILL FUJIWARA UP TO NORTHEAST AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
WILL LINGER AROUND THIS LOW OVER THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY. SO LOW
POPS FOR THE NORTHER ZONES PROBABLY WARRANTED.

.AVIATION...VALID 13/12Z-14/12Z...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PERIOD DESPITE SOME
LOWER CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS THRU 00Z AS
AN UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE AREA. INITIALLY EXPECT VCSH
BKN050-070 WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT TOWARDS SCT-BKN200-250 AFTER 00Z.
WINDS WILL BE NORTH NORTHEASTERLY AT SPEEDS OF 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS
25-30 KTS. WINDS SHOULD DROP TO OR BELOW 12KTS AT ALL TAF SITES BY
06Z.

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO IMMEDIATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AS WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AND COLDER AIR SURGE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF AN EXITING UPPER LOW. WETTING PRECIP WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
PRIMARILY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WHILE WINDS BECOME RATHER
STRONG OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY. MIN RH VALUES
WILL RUN AROUND 30 PERCENT WEST TO WELL OVER 50 PERCENT EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL BE DROPPING
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ENHANCE SURFACE WINDS FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THAT THE AREA WILL AVOID RED FLAG CRITERIA THRU THIS PERIOD.
AS THE UPPER LOW SETTLES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
ADDITIONAL COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL WETTING PRECIP FOR PRIMARILY THE NORTHERN ZONES. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BRIEFLY DROP TO BETWEEN 7000 AND 7500 FEET THURSDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY WHICH COULD RESULT IN A COUPLE OF INCHES OF
SNOWFALL FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. A
RETURN TO DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS IS THEN EXPECTED OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 63 46 71 53 79 / 40 20 0 10 10
SIERRA BLANCA 55 45 67 49 78 / 40 30 0 0 10
LAS CRUCES 60 45 70 47 78 / 30 10 0 10 10
ALAMOGORDO 59 44 68 47 77 / 50 30 0 10 20
CLOUDCROFT 39 30 49 35 58 / 70 40 10 10 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 61 43 70 47 76 / 20 10 0 10 10
SILVER CITY 61 40 68 45 70 / 20 20 10 20 20
DEMING 66 43 71 46 79 / 20 10 10 10 10
LORDSBURG 69 43 73 45 77 / 20 10 10 10 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 60 46 71 54 79 / 40 20 0 10 10
DELL CITY 59 43 68 46 79 / 50 30 0 0 10
FORT HANCOCK 63 45 71 49 81 / 40 20 0 0 10
LOMA LINDA 54 43 67 51 75 / 40 20 0 0 10
FABENS 63 45 71 49 80 / 40 20 0 0 10
SANTA TERESA 60 43 70 49 79 / 30 20 0 10 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 57 46 69 52 78 / 40 20 0 10 20
JORNADA RANGE 61 38 70 43 78 / 30 20 0 10 20
HATCH 63 41 71 46 79 / 20 10 0 10 10
COLUMBUS 65 46 70 50 77 / 20 20 0 10 0
OROGRANDE 57 47 68 50 78 / 40 20 0 10 20
MAYHILL 45 33 57 41 65 / 70 40 10 10 20
MESCALERO 46 33 57 39 64 / 70 40 10 10 20
TIMBERON 47 34 57 40 65 / 70 40 10 10 20
WINSTON 59 34 67 40 68 / 20 20 10 20 10
HILLSBORO 61 40 71 46 75 / 20 20 0 20 10
SPACEPORT 61 41 71 43 78 / 30 10 0 10 20
LAKE ROBERTS 60 36 66 41 67 / 20 20 10 20 20
HURLEY 63 38 68 44 73 / 20 20 10 20 10
CLIFF 66 42 70 43 75 / 20 20 10 20 20
MULE CREEK 66 36 69 39 73 / 20 20 10 20 20
FAYWOOD 61 40 68 45 73 / 20 20 10 20 10
ANIMAS 70 45 73 49 77 / 20 10 10 10 0
HACHITA 68 44 72 46 78 / 20 10 10 10 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 66 45 72 47 76 / 20 10 10 10 0
CLOVERDALE 65 43 72 47 73 / 20 10 10 10 0

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ415.

TX...NONE.
&&

HEFNER/LANEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

106 AM CDT MON APR 13 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE MCS ONGOING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
AND THE COASTAL BEND HAS CLEARED DRT BUT WILL AFFECT SSF/SAT WITH
VCSH AND AUS WITH TSTMS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ATMOSPHERE WILL
BRIEFLY STABILIZE BEHIND THIS MCS AND WILL CAUSE CLEARING SKIES
IN THE NEAR TERM...WHICH COMBINED WITH WEAK WINDS AND WET GROUNDS
MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AT SSF/SAT/AUS. HRRR AND LAMP
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE AT SSF AND SAT...BUT
DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE HAVE KEPT IFR VSBYS IN AT SAT AND HAVE JUST
A TEMPO GROUP OF LIFR VSBYS AT SSF WHERE LOCAL CONDITIONS MAKE
DENSE FOG A BIT MORE LIKELY. REGARDLESS...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO
FILL BACK IN WITHIN THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS...LEADING TO IFR CIGS AT
SAT/SSF/AUS AND MVFR CIGS AT DRT. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY LATE
MORNING AT DRT AND EARLY AFTERNOON AT SSF/SAT/DRT.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015/

UPDATE...
GRIDS AND ZONES HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO CANCEL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH #57. CAPPING EVIDENT ON 00Z DRT SOUNDING AT 4-5 KFT AND SPC
MESOANALYSES LIKELY PREVENTED SEVERE WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE
SURFACE EARLIER THIS EVENING...AND THIS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
CONTINUES TO SPREAD OUT IN FRONT OF THE ONGOING LINE OF STORMS.
STRONGER SHEAR VALUES HAVE ALSO REMAINED SOUTH OF OUR CWA. ALTHOUGH
A FEW SPOTS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS BRIEFLY TRAIN IN FRONT OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE
LINE...HIRES MODELS SUGGEST THIS LINE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
COVERAGE WILL BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. GRIDS
HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS AS THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
STABILIZE FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING BEHIND THIS LINE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015/

AVIATION.../00Z TAFS/
MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE CONVECTION THAT WILL
LIKELY IMPACT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. LINE OS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AT
THIS TIME. LOOKS TO ARRIVE IN KDRT BETWEEN 2330Z AND 01Z. FOR THE
I-35 CORRIDOR LOOKS LIKE AROUND 04Z-05Z FOR KSAT/KSSF AND 05Z-06Z
FOR KAUS. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE RAIN AND SHOWERS BEHIND THE LINE
FOR A FEW HOURS. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING 10Z-12Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH 15Z. WILL SEE MVFR CIGS
DEVELOP 03Z-05Z THEN DOWN TO IFR AFTER 07Z-09Z. AFTER 17Z-19Z ALL
SITES SHOULD RETURN TO VFR. WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AND GUSTY IN
OR NEAR ANY CONVECTION WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

UPDATE...
UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS WITH ONGOING MCS MOVING INTO
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THAT CURRENTLY HAS TWO BOWING SEGMENTS. THE
FIRST HAS CROSSED INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY AND HAS ALREADY BEEN
ASSOCIATED WITH A SEVERE WIND GUST IN TERRELL COUNTY TO THE WEST.
THE SECOND BOWING SEGMENT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN COAHUILA MEXICO
AND WILL ENTER MAVERICK COUNTY AROUND 00Z. SHEAR VALUES OF APPROX
40 KT AND CAPE VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG ARE AHEAD OF THIS MORE
SOUTHERN BOWING SEGMENT...WHEREAS CAPE VALUES ARE HIGHER AROUND
3000 J/KG AND SHEAR VALUES ARE LOWER AROUND 30 KT WITH THE
NORTHERN BOWING SEGMENT. BASED ON THESE VALUES AND FORWARD
PROPAGATION SPEEDS OF 20-25 KT...EXPECT STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE
UP TO 70 MPH IN THE STRONGEST BOWING SEGMENTS WITH SEVERE WINDS UP
TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE IN OTHER NON- BOWING SEGMENTS OF THE GUST
FRONT. TORNADO THREAT AND SEVERE HAIL THREAT SHOULD BE LOW.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE EXTENDED FURTHER EAST BASED ON
ONGOING RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS. WILL UPDATE IF NEEDED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015/

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES FROM THE
WEST THIS EVENING...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
LATEST WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED CHANNELS ARE SHOWING A VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND APPROACH THE RIO GRANDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE MAJORITY OF THE HIRES SOLUTIONS AND MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS BRING A CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAINS OF
NORTHEAST MEXICO AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE AROUND 5 OR 6 PM THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING ACROSS THE
MEXICAN MOUNTAINS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. OVER
THAT SAME AREA...A SURFACE TROUGH IS PRESENT WITH LAPSE RATE
READINGS IN THE 7.5 TO 8.0 C/KM RANGE. ALSO...AREA FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR A COUPLE OF POINTS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE SUGGEST ML
CAPES OF 2000 J/KM AND DCAPE OF 800 J/KM...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT AND DAMAGING WIND DOWNDRAFTS. THE THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES AS THE CONVECTIVE LINE PUSHES AWAY
FROM THE RIO GRANDE AND APPROACHES HIGHWAY 281(THIS INCLUDES THE
SAN ANTONIO METRO AREA). STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE FORECAST TO
ARRIVE TO THE SAN ANTONIO AREA BETWEEN 9-11 PM THIS EVENING. AS
THE STORMS MOVE EAST OF HIGHWAY 281...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
AND TRANSITION TO HEAVY RAIN MAKERS. HOWEVER...CANT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER. ALSO...DUE TO THE HIGH VALUES OF PWATS ACROSS THE AREA
(1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES)...CANT RULE OUT SOME MINOR FLOODING ACROSS
AREA ROADS...UNDERPASSES AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH A BREAK FROM
THE RAIN THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A WET PATTERN CONTINUES ON TUESDAY WITH A BREAK ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE ATMOSPHERE SETS UP FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE RAINS ON
THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY AFFECTING THE
NORTHEAST HILL COUNTRY. NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS GOOD THIS FAR OUT THE
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 83 63 79 59 83 / 40 20 30 20 30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 82 63 78 58 80 / 40 20 40 20 30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 83 63 80 59 83 / 30 20 30 20 30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 81 60 76 55 81 / 40 30 20 20 30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 85 62 80 57 85 / 10 10 - 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 81 62 77 57 81 / 40 30 40 20 30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 84 62 81 58 82 / 10 10 20 20 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 83 63 78 59 81 / 30 20 30 20 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 81 66 78 62 82 / 50 30 40 20 40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 84 64 80 60 82 / 20 20 20 20 30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 84 65 81 61 82 / 20 20 20 20 30

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...00
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN ANGELO TX

1144 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Much of the convection has come to an end in and around the
forecast terminals, although a few decaying showers will persist
into the early morning hours. Relatively quiet conditions are
anticipated overnight, although we could see some patchy fog in
areas that clear out, mainly along the I-10 corridor west of KJCT.
Visibilities could be quite low in localized areas, but will carry
3 miles at KSOA for now. Otherwise, will monitor the remaining
sites for development. South winds tonight will continue into
Monday morning, but a cold front will move south into the area
tomorrow. This front is expected to reach KABI by early afternoon,
and KSJT around 00z. Expect scattered diurnal convection in the
vicinity of this boundary. Vicinity showers were included for
KABI, KSJT, and KBBD through the early evening hours, but may need
to be upgraded to thunder over the next few forecast cycles.

Johnson

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2015/

UPDATE...
See update discussion below.

DISCUSSION...
updated zones and grids to cancel severe thunderstorm watch #57.
Also, made some adjustment to POP grids, with likely POPS
remaining across mainly the Big Country for tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 58 77 53 70 50 / 60 50 60 20 10
San Angelo 58 84 54 73 52 / 40 20 30 10 10
Junction 60 82 55 76 53 / 40 20 20 10 10

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOUISVILLE KY

1120 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1115 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2015

A mix of sun and clouds currently summarizes the weather late this
morning over central KY and south-central IN. Showers are
progressing a little slower toward our area than previous forecast,
so have trended back timing a bit. Surface front shows up well
across IL into south-central/southeastern MO, with showers and a few
thunderstorms along and just ahead of it. This axis will move east
this afternoon while other moisture/showers over the Tennessee
Valley move north-northeast. So, expect showers and scattered
thunderstorms to increase from the west and south this afternoon,
with coverage increasing substantially late this afternoon and
evening.

Latest NAM is showing rain amounts of 1-2 inches across parts of
central KY tonight, roughly from BWG to LEX. 12z HRRR appears to
focus things along/near the front over north-central to east-central
KY. So, will keep an eye on coverage/amounts as the day and evening
unfolds.

Made minor adjustments to temps/dewpoints for this afternoon but
nothing drastic.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 335 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2015

A cold front will approach the region today from the west while
isentropic lift increases over our region as a weak frontal boundary
approaches from the south. Moisture still looks to be quite a ways
off from our area so will side with the drier 0Z model solutions
which keep most of the morning dry. We should start to see
sufficient moistening of the atmosphere closer to Noon or early
afternoon. As the previous forecaster mentioned, we may see two
areas of convection develop over our region early this afternoon.
One closer to the cold front west of I-65 and the other from roughly
Bowling Green to Lexington in the better isentropic lift over the
southern boundary. Precip looks to start out as possibly some
showers and scattered storms this afternoon. A few storms might
become strong in nature with wind gusts up to 40 mph, but don`t feel
this is very likely.

Precipitation will fill in over the entire area this evening as the
weak boundaries look to merge over the Ohio Valley. Tonight a
decent sfc wave or waves look to ride along the resulting boundary
causing it to slow as it tries to push south through our region.
This will result in a rainy night for us with a potentially heavy
rain axis setting up over south central KY. The 0Z NAM yields as
much as 2-3 inches of rainfall over the Lake Cumberland region.
Other 0Z models haven`t quite jumped on board in narrowing down an
axis of heavier rainfall over south central KY, but can`t rule it
out somewhere over central KY as the front slows and upper flow
becomes parallel to the front. Will need to watch trends in
high-res models throughout the day as 3 hr and 6 hr FFG over east
central KY is running between 1.75 to 2.5 inches. Will bump
forecast rainfall amounts up on this forecast to a solid 1-1.6
inches over south central and portions of east central KY for
Mon/Mon night with higher amounts possible.

Precipitation should gradually diminish as rain showers from NW to
SE Tues during the day as the front pushes well south of the Ohio
Valley.

Temperatures for today should reach the mid 70s to around 80 with
the later rain arrival. Tonight low temps will be tricky with the
frontal boundary draped across our area. We`ll likely see a
gradient of lows from the upper 40s/lower 50s over southern IN to
upper 50s/lower 60s across south central KY. Tuesday will be cooler
on the north side of the front with highs in the low to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2015

...More Above Normal Rainfall Expected This Week...

Overall forecast confidence remains in the low to medium category as
we will continue to deal with downstream effects of a split flow
pattern aloft. Both the deterministic and ensemble global model
runs essentially have the same pattern aloft characterized by a
substantial trough axis out across the desert southwest with
persistent ridging hanging tough over the eastern US. Initial
trough axis looks to lift out into the Plains and toward the upper
Midwest by midweek, only to be replaced by a larger cut off low
toward the end of the week in the desert southwest. This flow
regime is pretty much a textbook case for heavy/enhanced rainfall
from the southern Plains/Deep TX eastward across the deep south.
Model spreads remain fairly high throughout the period leading to
the low/medium forecast confidence.

In terms of sensible weather, a front will drop southward through
the region early in the extended period. The latest round of data
suggests that this boundary will hang up across central TN during
the day on Wednesday and then lift back northward late Thursday and
into Friday. Some marginal ridging aloft looks to move in by the
weekend which may result in a slightly drier conditions across the
region. The large cut off low across the southwest then looks to
lift out by late in the weekend bringing yet another round of
rainfall the region by early next week.

As mentioned above, the overall pattern favors heavy/enhanced
rainfall from the southern Plains eastward into portions of the deep
south. Much of the Ohio Valley will likely remain in the warm
sector through much of the week with precipitable water values in
excess of an inch. Total QPF amounts for our area over the next
week look to fall in a tight gradient from north to south. In the
north 1-2 inches of total rainfall looks very likely. South of the
WK/BG Parkways, 2-3 inches of rainfall...with locally higher amounts
looks very possible. This precipitation combined with already
saturated soils will likely result in excessive runoff later this
week, leading to hydrologic issues on area creeks and streams.

As for temperatures, the forecast remains quite challenging due to
complex precipitation patterns and actual frontal locations. A
blended approach was used for the upcoming forecast, but there area
potential bust areas that could occur. For now, daily highs in the
upper 60s to the lower 70s seems likely. Overnight lows look to
cool into the 50s most nights.

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 655 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2015

VFR conditions are expected through sunrise. After sunrise, low
level moisture will begin to increase as weather systems approach
from the south and west causing high end MVFR cigs to enter the area
this morning/early afternoon. Precipitation timing looks about the
same so will hold on to -SHRA with VCTS starting late
afternoon/early evening. Flight conditions could go down to IFR
during the evening hours. Felt confident to include in BWG TAF but
not confident in a time frame for this to happen at SDF/LEX quite
yet so will hold off on IFR mention attm. Thunder chances should
diminish after midnight so will just insert -SHRA for the last
portion of the TAF period.

Winds will be southerly through mid afternoon, then turning light
and variable this evening ahead of a weak cold front and another
boundary to our southwest. The cold front will pass late tonight
turning winds to the NE after 6Z and increasing to 10-14 kts tonight.

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Update.........TWF
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......AMS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

1113 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1115 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. CONNECTED TO THIS DEVELOPING LOW IS A COLD FRONT INBOUND
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE FRONT QUITE WELL ALONG WITH THE
NORTHWARD SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF MANIFESTING AS SHOWERS
LIFTING THROUGH WESTERN TENNESSEE. AHEAD OF THIS...MID LEVEL
CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA BUT MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS STILL PREVAIL IN THE NORTH AND EASTERN SECTIONS. THE
SUNSHINE IS HELPING ALREADY ELEVATED TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE
70S...WHILE UPPER 60S ARE SEEN BENEATH THE CLOUDS. DEW POINTS ARE
STEADILY COMING UP...AS WELL...REACHING THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S. THIS WILL STILL LIKELY HINDER THE INITIAL ONSET OF PCPN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...FOR A TIME BEFORE THE CONVECTION OVERWHELMS THE
DRIER AIR. DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS CURRENTLY AT 5 TO
10 KTS MAY ALSO WORK TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF MEASURABLE PCPN. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY TO FINE TUNE THE CONVECTION/S ARRIVAL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON PER THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 MODELS. DID
ALSO ADJUST TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PER THE
LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE...OBS...AND TRENDS. THESE UPDATED GRIDS
HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS WHILE A FRESHENED SET
OF ZONES HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 821 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY
COVER ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.
OTHERWISE...WILL LET THE FORECAST RIDE.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS SCOOTED OFF TO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WITH A COLD FRONT ALIGNED FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
DOWN THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH BROAD LOW PRESSURE
RESIDING IN TEXAS. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...WHILE A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH IS CRUISING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITHIN THE
NORTHERN STREAM. MODEST RIDGING IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE CONUS.

EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING...WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ALLOWING FOR A GOOD RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT
ACROSS THE AREA...AS COOLER VALLEYS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
40S...WHILE RIDGES REMAIN IN THE 60S.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DAMPEN AND PIVOT ITS WAY
TOWARDS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...WHILE SENDING A FEW WEAKER SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS OUT AHEAD OF IT WHICH WILL AFFECT THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA LATE TODAY AND EVENTUALLY PASS THROUGH THE
COMMONWEALTH TONIGHT...BEFORE EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY.

MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES WILL STILL BE WEST OF I-75
AND NEAR THE I-64 CORRIDOR...WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW RESISTING THE
MOISTURE RETURN FURTHER TO THE EAST. THE MODELS HAVE GENERALLY
TRENDED A BIT SLOWER WITH THE POPS...SO SOME LOCATIONS LOOK TO
REACH 80 OR SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY ONCE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE MILDER START.

THE BOUNDARY WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME ADDED
FORCING FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH A FEW STORMS AS WELL. THERE IS
A CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN THE VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES IN PLACE...HOWEVER THERE STILL REMAINS SOME QUESTION
AS TO HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL BE REALIZED WITH MODELS STILL SHOWING
QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD WITH QPF AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT. FOR
NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

THE FRONT WILL SLIP INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON TUESDAY...WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TAPERING OFF EARLY IN THE MORNING. HIGHS WILL
BE MUCH COOLER...WITH LOW TO MID 60S EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
BY MIDWEEK...REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. TO THE EAST OF THIS UPPER LOW...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BE IN PLACE AND SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL DELIVER MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO EAST KENTUCKY. IN
FACT...WILL HAVE TO CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH PERIOD DURING THE
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LOOKING HARD FOR SOME GOOD
NEWS...CURRENT FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT EACH WAVE OF RAIN WILL
BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE SO WE MAY NOT HAVE MUCH OF A FLOOD THREAT
DESPITE THE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN. THE PROGRESSING GREENUP WILL
HELP THAT CAUSE AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD...AVERAGING
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 821 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA DURING THE DAY...WITH
CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWERING AND SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT...MAINLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-75. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DROP
DOWN TO MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH SHOWERS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD LATE THIS EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DROP DOWN TO IFR BEHIND THE FRONT BETWEEN 05
AND 08Z AND LOOK TO LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

749 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

MILD AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO START THE PERIOD BEFORE
SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN ARRIVE ON A SERIES OF TROUGHS THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT...IMPROVING
TO VFR AT KIWD BY LATE MORNING AND AT KCMX AND KSAW BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AS SHRA DISSIPATE AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. ALL SITES
WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT REACHING 30 KTS OR HIGHER AT BOTH KCMX
AND KSAW. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN LATER THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL
MIXING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
HYDROLOGY...TITUS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

1104 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE SPRING SEASON TO OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST LOCATIONS
GETTING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER
THIS FRONT PASSES BY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH DOWN FROM CANADA
WITH FAIR WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO 60 DEGREES.

QPF WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE ARND .25 TO .50 INCHES AND WILL NOT
CAUSE ANY HYDRO ISSUES AT THIS POINT EXCEPT KEEP RIVERS AND
STREAMS RUNNING HIGH WITH NO FLOOD ISSUES THRU MID-WEEK.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER FROPA ON TUESDAY...ASIDE FROM SOME ISOLATED SHRA LINGERING
IN THE POCONOS/WRN CATSKILLS BTWN 12Z AND 14Z REST OF C NY AND NE
PA WILL SEE NO PRECIP AS AGAIN MODEL CONSENSUS IS DRY. LOOKING AT
850 MB TEMPS AND SFC DEWPOINTS IT DOESN/T EVEN LOOK LIKE MUCH CU
FORMS TUE EXCEPT IN NC NY WHERE COLDER AIR AT 850 MB WILL BE
PRESENT TUESDAY. MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND
COOLER.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND LASTS THROUGH WED
AND WED NGT WITH FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH
MAXES REACHING INTO CLOSE TO OR ABOVE 60F EACH DAY.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
400 AM UPDATE...
OVERALL...THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS PRETTY CLOSE TO EARLIER
THINKING AS 00Z GUIDANCE WAS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF THE NEED FOR ANY
MAJOR SWING. MODELS AGREE THAT THE PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE
TO START WITH FAST MOVING TRANSIENT SYSTEMS EVERY OTHER DAY. DID
MAKE CHANGES TO PUSH BACK ON SHOWER CHANCES FOR THURS-THURS
EVENING AS MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF A MID-LVL TROF LOOKS SLOWER
WITH HIGH PRESSURE HANGING ON THE EAST COAST. FRIDAY-SATURDAY
STILL LOOKS DAMP WITH PASSING COLD FRONTS AND A LOW SKIRTING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. HIGH PRESSURE...BUT A COOLER THAN NORMAL
AIRMASS ARRIVES ON SUNDAY THEN TRANSITS OFFSHORE BY MONDAY. THE
MODELS THEN DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR MONDAY...BUT THIS IS TO BE
EXPECTED AS MANY OF THE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL
SPRING BLOCKING PATTERN TRYING TO SET UP ACROSS THE NRN
HEMISPHERE. LET`S HOPE WE WIND UP ON THE GOOD SIDE OF THAT ONE.

TEMPERATURES ROUND OUT THE WEEK IN SEASONABLE FASHION WITH COOLER
THAN NORMAL SUNDAY-MONDAY.

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
150 AM UPDATE...MAIN AVIATION CONCERN TODAY WILL BE STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND GUSTY LOW LVL TURBULENCE. EXPECT LIGHT E-SE
LOCAL DRAINAGE FLOWS EARLY TODAY FOLLOWED BY WINDS VEERING S-SSW
AND INCRG 10-20 SUSTAINED...GUSTING 25-30 KTS BY LATE MORNING AND
THIS AFTN AHEAD OF APCHG COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT SNAPS WINDS AROUND
TO W-NW JUST PRIOR TO END OF FCST PERIOD AT 10-15 KTS.

VFR WITH INCRG MID-HIGH LVL CIGS TODAY AND THIS EVENING...LOWERING
CONSIDERABLY AROUND FROPA WITH AREAS MVFR IN SHOWERS. FRONT HAS A
LITTLE ENERGY WITH IT...BUT FOR NOW THE CHC FOR TSRA SEEMS LOW.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE...BECMG VFR.

WED-THU...VFR.

THU NGT-FRI...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA.

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...WFO CTP
NEAR TERM...WFO CTP
SHORT TERM...WFO CTP
LONG TERM...WFO CTP
AVIATION...WFO CTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

1041 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1040 AM MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY AND A WARM FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WITH IT A LARGE AMOUNT OF GULF
MOISTURE. IT HAS ALREADY STARTED TO SHOW UP IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PART
OF THE CWA AS LOW CLOUDS AND VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS THICKENING CLOUD COVER
WILL MOST LIKELY KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT IN THE SOUTHWEST
AND THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED ACCORDINGLY. LATEST HRRR SURFACE
DEWPOINTS SHOW A SWATH OF MOISTURE JUST WEST OF THE TRIAD AND CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT HAS FOLLOWED THAT PATTERN. THEREFORE EXPECT WARMEST
TEMPS IN THE EAST/NORTHEAST TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 DEGREES.

PRECIPITATION WILL REMAINED CONFINED TO THE WEST AND THE SOUTHWEST
WITH HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DEPICTING LIGHT RAIN MOVING IN THIS
AFTERNOON BUT THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION REALLY HOLDING OFF IN MUCH
OF THE CWA UNTIL TUESDAY.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 312 AM MONDAY...

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM MONDAY...

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 727 AM MONDAY...

A RELATIVELY STABLE AND DRY AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NC EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS LATER TODAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUD COVER AND A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TRIAD TERMINALS
AND POSSIBLY KFAY PRIOR TO SUNSET...ALONG WITH SPOTS OF PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN.

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEMS ALOFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF IFR/LOW END MVFR CEILINGS.

SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. THIS SUGGEST A HIGH PROBABILITY OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...POSSIBLY LEADING TO MORE PERIODS OF SUB VFR CEILINGS AND
PRECIP.

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

727 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 312 AM MONDAY...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 312 AM MONDAY...

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM MONDAY...

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 727 AM MONDAY...

SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. THIS SUGGEST A HIGH PROBABILITY OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...POSSIBLY LEADING TO MORE PERIODS OF SUB VFR CEILINGS AND
PRECIP.

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

1008 AM CDT MON APR 13 2015

.UPDATE...

SURFACE TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA...WITH SURFACE
PRESSURE RISES OF 2-3 MB OVER THE PAST THREE HOURS. REMAINING
SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED OFFSHORE INTO LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING...WITH RAPID CLEARING ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. SKIES WILL
QUICKLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. EXPECT DEEP MIXING THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS EXTENDING THE MIXED LAYER UP
TO AROUND 730 MB BY 00Z. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MOMENTUM
TRANSFER INTO THE LOWER PBL...WITH WESTERLY WIND GUSTS REACHING
30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY EVENING WITH RAPID
COOLING AND DECOUPLING COMMENCING. VERY LOW DEWPOINTS...IN THE LOW
TO MID 20S...ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW RH VALUES. WHILE
RAIN FELL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THE LOW RH AND HIGH
WINDS STILL MAKE THIS A POOR DAY FOR BURNING.

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

CLEARING LINE JUST NORTHWEST OF MSN AT 10 AM...AND EXPECTED TO
REACH THE EASTERN TAF SITES BY AROUND 11 TO 1130 AM. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER...BUT EXPECT VFR CIGS AND VSBYS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.MARINE

WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
8PM TONIGHT.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

UPDATE...SPM
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HALBACH
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...REM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PHOENIX AZ

235 PM MST MON APR 13 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

.SYNOPSIS... AFTER ANOTHER WARM DAY TUESDAY...A CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN ARIZONA. WINDS WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS STRONG OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
ALSO LEAD TO MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES...DIPPING BELOW NORMAL.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A WARMING TREND
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.DISCUSSION... LATEST RAP STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LOW
ACROSS NM WITH A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE ACROSS ACROSS AZ. SKIES ARE SUNNY
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 3 TO 5
DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE OBSERVED THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE ABOVE-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL DROP INTO THE GREAT BASIN
TUESDAY...RESULTING IN A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS JTNP. FURTHER
SOUTH NEAR CASA GRANDE AND TOWARDS TUCSON...A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING
ARE ANTICIPATED. BIGGEST IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE COOLER
AND WINDY CONDITIONS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE AREA...PARTICULARLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING
DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A WINDY DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AS A VORT
MAX DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH UT AND HELPS TO DEEPEN THE TROUGH INTO A
CLOSED LOW WHILE DRIVING IT SOUTHWARD. ECMWF ENSEMBLE SPREAD REMAINS
RELATIVELY HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH THIS VARIABILITY WILL NOT
MEAN MUCH IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT
WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER...DRIER AND WINDY.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WITH THE STRONG WINDS...ADDED A MENTION OF
BLOWING DUST TO THE FORECASTS. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA BUT STILL BREEZY TO WINDY IN THE AFTERNOON.
ALSO ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY DUST FOR PORTIONS OF PINAL COUNTY. IN
ADDITION TO THE WINDS...THE FRONT ALSO USHERS IN VERY DRY AIR. HIGH
TEMPS WILL DROP 10-15 DEGREES OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY AND 7-10 DEGREES OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. MEANWHILE TO OUR NORTH ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS AND BECOMES A CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR SALT LAKE CITY. THIS
IS IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPSTREAM ROSSBY WAVE PATTERN
AS WELL AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGING.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW SAGS SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS. FOR
INSTANCE...THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FURTHER WEST WITH IT THAN THE GFS.
THE ECMWF THUS BRINGS THE COLD CORE CLOSER TO OUR EASTERN
AREAS...MAINLY GILA COUNTY. BUT WITH SO MUCH DRY AIR TO
OVERCOME...CAPE LOOKS MEAGER AND WOULD LIKELY BE CONFINED TO
RIM/WHITE MOUNTAINS AND NORTH. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL
COOLING FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ON THE LOWER
DESERTS IN THE 70S. THERE WILL ALSO BE LINGERING BREEZINESS. THE LOW
SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH RISING
HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WITH HIGHS BOUNCING BACK UP TO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S OVER THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GENERALLY 10KT OR LESS AT ALL
TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z TUESDAY MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...
DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND...AND WITH VERY LITTLE
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE NO PRECIPITATION...JUST SOME
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THROUGH FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND. EXPECT FAIR/POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES DURING THE
PERIOD.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR AZZ131-132.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR CAZ231.

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION....MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PHOENIX AZ

200 PM MST MON APR 13 2015

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL TAF SITES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. NO WEATHER-RELATED AVIATION
IMPACTS EXPECTED.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH UTAH AND INTO ARIZONA
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...USHERING IN MUCH DRIER AIR ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS. THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST ARIZONA
WILL SEE THE MOST CRITICAL CONDITIONS AND FIRE WEATHER WATCHES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HOW QUICKLY
THE DRY AIR WILL ARRIVE IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. AT THIS POINT IT
APPEARS THE DRY AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL WINDS BEGIN TO WEAKEN
WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT THERE COULD CERTAINLY BE SOME ISOLATED AREAS
WHERE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ARE REALIZED. DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. EXPECT FAIR/POOR OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR AZZ131-132.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR CAZ231.

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION....LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

115 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1251 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015

COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING MAINLY
-SHRA TO KFWA TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME NW BEHIND
THE FRONT AND STILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN 25KT GUSTS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET
DIMINISHING WINDS TO LT 10KTS. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...LOGSDON

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

220 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS...INCLUDING RADAR AND SATELLITE. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
IS ON TRACK...THOUGH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF QPF NOW EXPECTED
TONIGHT...PROBABLY NECESSITATING A FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE WITH THE
NEXT PACKAGE. THESE LATEST GRID UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE
NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1115 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 821 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY
COVER ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.
OTHERWISE...WILL LET THE FORECAST RIDE.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015

A COLD FRONT AND CONVECTION FROM THE SOUTH WILL APPROACH THE AREA
DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH CEILINGS GRADUALLY
LOWERING AND SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT...
MAINLY LATER THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-75. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DROP DOWN TO MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING...WITH CONVECTION BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD LATE THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT PRESSES THROUGH THE
AREA. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DROP DOWN TO IFR BEHIND THE FRONT
BETWEEN 05 AND 08Z AND LOOK TO LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD
FOR ALL BUT PERHAPS KSYM. GENERALLY SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 OR 20
KTS POSSIBLE...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BEHIND
THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUING NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GREIF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOUISVILLE KY

153 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1115 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2015

Made minor adjustments to temps/dewpoints for this afternoon but
nothing drastic.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 335 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2015

Precipitation should gradually diminish as rain showers from NW to
SE Tues during the day as the front pushes well south of the Ohio
Valley.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2015

...More Above Normal Rainfall Expected This Week...

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 145 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2015

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous this
afternoon at and around the 3 TAF sites. This will then transition
to a more widespread rain area tonight as a cold front slips
southeast across central KY and as a surface low moves east-
northeast along it. Initially VFR visibility may briefly go down to
MVFR later this afternoon in any heavier showers and storms.
Ceilings will also lower by late afternoon and evening, with MVFR
ceilings tonight, probably lowering into IFR at times. Rain should
be moderate to perhaps heavy at times in intensity tonight, but with
a gradual loss of thunderstorms.

Widespread rain should diminish at SDF by about 06z with lighter
scattered showers in the vicinity through 12z as ceilings begin to
rise again. Rain and low MVFR/IFR ceilings will continue at BWG and
LEX through 12z, with still some rain at these 2 sites after 12z but
with ceilings becoming MVFR.

As the cold front moves through and low pressure rides east-
northeast along it, expect winds to switch from SW to NE and become
gusty overnight with prevailing winds 10-20 with gusts over 20 kts
at times possible.

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Update.........TWF
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......TWF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW ORLEANS LA

334 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR AMARILLO TEXAS. WELL
DEFINED MCV NOW OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST LOUISIANA NEAR MONROE IS
CONTINUING TO PUSH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE AREA.
A GOOD BIT OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH MOST OF THE AREA
CURRENTLY DRY. ABOUT THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA SEEING A LITTLE
SUNSHINE AND THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER TO NEAR THE
80 DEGREE MARK.

.SHORT TERM...

CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF
TONIGHT. HRRR LOOKS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
MAY LOWER POPS FROM WHAT IS SHOWN BELOW FOR TONIGHT PRIOR TO
FORECAST RELEASE...BUT WILL STILL CARRY AT LEAST SOME SMALL
MENTION IN CASE NEXT SURGE IS QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED. NEXT
SURGE LOOKS TO BE LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT LOWER
TOMORROW...CLOSER TO 1.75 INCHES THAN THE 1.96 WE SAW THIS
MORNING. STILL LOOKING AT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. WILL KEEP FLOOD WATCH AS CURRENTLY
CONFIGURED. MIDNIGHT SHIFT WILL NEED TO LOOK FOR POSSIBLE
CONTINUATION/EXPANSION OF WATCH...AS IT LOOKS LIKE PATTERN WILL
REPEAT FOR WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY. GENERALLY LIKELY
POPS DURING THE DAY AND CHANCE AT NIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TEMPERATURE RANGES WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION...BUT IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH OF A BREAK IN
CLOUD COVER TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BREAK 80 DEGREES. 35

.LONG TERM...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS START TO DIVERGE ON THE UPPER PATTERN FRIDAY
WITH GFS SYSTEM BEING CONSIDERABLY DEEPER AT 500 MB THAN ECMWF.
FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH A BLENDED APPROACH UNTIL MODEL DIFFERENCES
RESOLVE. NO LONG PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER MUCH BEFORE NEXT SUNDAY OR
MONDAY. DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS TO CONTINUE WITH NOT MUCH MORE
THAN 10-15 DEGREE SPREAD...AND THAT MAY BE GENEROUS THROUGH
SATURDAY. COULD SEE A LITTLE COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS BEGINNING
SUNDAY IN THE NORTH IF SOME DRYING WORKS IN. 35

.AVIATION...

CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING HAS PUSHED EAST OF
THE AREA AND NO LONGER AN IMPACT FOR TERMINALS. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MAINLY NORTH OF A KBTR TO
KHDC LINE. OTHERWISE MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME LOCATIONS BECOMING VFR. THOSE VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
FADE AWAY OVERNIGHT AS LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY FOG
DEVELOPS. RAINFALL TO RETURN AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING.

MEFFER

.MARINE...

GENERALLY EXPECT ONSHORE WINDS 8-12 KNOTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...OCCASIONALLY DISTURBED BY WAVES OF CONVECTION. 35

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE
ACTIVATION...NONE
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING FLOOD WATCH AND WARNINGS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 67 75 64 78 / 40 80 50 60
BTR 68 77 65 79 / 40 80 50 70
ASD 69 79 67 79 / 30 80 60 70
MSY 70 78 68 79 / 30 80 50 70
GPT 71 77 69 77 / 30 70 60 70
PQL 71 80 69 80 / 30 70 60 70

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR LAZ040-046>050-
056>070-072.

GM...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR MSZ080>082.

GM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW ORLEANS LA

1243 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015

.UPDATE...

WELL DEFINED MCV MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE RESTON AND MONROE
AREAS. THIS IS SWEEPING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EASTWARD
WITH MOST ACTIVITY NOW OVER COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. EVEN THESE AREAS
SHOULD SEE AN END TO THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN PRIOR TO THE
ISSUANCE OF THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE IMPULSE AS THE
16Z HRRR INDICATES. EARLY LOOK AT 12Z GUIDANCE ALSO WOULD INDICATE
SOME LOWERING OF OVERNIGHT POPS IS WARRANTED. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AS WELL WITH SOME SUNSHINE INDICATED. 35

.AVIATION...

CONVECTION DEPARTING MOST TERMINAL AREAS WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT
ALL SITES EXCEPT KGPT...WHERE IMPROVEMENT SHOULD OCCUR IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE EVENING HOURS. CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG OR LOW STRATUS...AND MENTION OF LIGHT TO MODERATE FOG WILL BE
CARRIED IN THE FORECAST. NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...AND WILL LIKELY BE ADDRESSED IN THE
00Z FORECAST PACKAGE. 35/MEFFER

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 813 AM CDT MON APR 13 2015/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING IS UNSTABLE ABOVE THE TOP OF A SFC
INVERSION AT 950 MB. MIXED LAYER CAPE IS 1500 J/KG. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED SINCE YESTERDAY AND ARE AT ABOUT 6.3
C/KM. DUE TO A LOW LEVEL MESOSCALE BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA...
WINDS ARE EASTERLY IN THE INVERSION AND THEN SOUTH AT 018 FT.
ABOVE THE INVERSION WINDS BECOME WESTERLY. THIS CREATES SOME SHEAR
IN THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW LEVEL SRH VALUES AROUND 200
M2/S2. THE PROFILE IS NEAR SATURATED AT POINTS THROUGHOUT...
RESULTING IN A RECORD MAX PW IN THE CLIMATOLOGY FOR TODAY AT 1.96
INCHES. THE STORMS COMING IN THIS MORNING WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT
RAIN MAKERS.
KRAUTMANN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT MON APR 13 2015/

SHORT TERM...
NEXT WEATHER PLAYER IS MCV MOVING OUT OF DEEP SOUTH TX INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. NO REAL SIGNS OF WEAKENING PER WSR88D AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY. MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MCV IN THE FORM OF HIGH WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND
TORRENTIAL RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. LOOKING AT
THE 00Z SOUNDING ALSO INDICATES INSTABILITY IN THE POST WARM FRONT
ENVIRONMENT WITH PARCEL CAPE VALUES OF 900 TO 1000 J/KG AND BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 22 M2/S2. PW MEASURED AT 1.94 INCHES INDICATES
RAIN THAT DOES FALL WILL BE QUITE EFFICIENT IN NATURE. HELICITY
IMPRESSIVE AT OVER 200 M2/S2. NOW THERE COULD BE SOME MODIFICATION
FROM 00Z TO THIS MORNING...WE WILL SEE ONCE WE LAUNCH THE 12Z
RADIOSONDE AND ADJUST IF NEEDED. EVEN THOUGH NOT WIDESPREAD...THERE
IS A NON- ZERO CHANCE OF A SOME WATERSPOUTS AND/OR BRIEF TORNADOES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS AND ESPECIALLY WHEN THEY
INTERACT WITH MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES. I DID EXPAND AND EXTEND THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN
YESTERDAY...IE THE MS GULF COAST WITH OVER 3 INCHES IN MANY AREAS
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z LAST NIGHT. ANY RAIN OVER THE WATCH AREA
BECOMES A PROBLEM AS ACCUMULATED RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS HAS LOWERED FFG VALUES TO AROUND 2 TO 2.5 INCHES PER HOUR
WHICH IS ATTAINABLE CONSIDERING THE THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT.

HRRR TAKES THE MCV TO THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 13Z WITH SOME
SHRA DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD BEGINNING BETWEEN 8Z AND 9Z. RADAR
ALREADY SUPPORTING THIS FORECAST. THE MAIN MCV WILL REACH KBTR
AROUND 8AM...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN BY 11AM/NOON... AND THE MS GULF
COAST AROUND 1 TO 2PM. /KEG/

LONG TERM...
WEATHER MODELS ARE ALL A LITTLE OFF IN TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
RAIN BUT WE CAN TAKE AWAY AT LEAST A VERY EL NINOESQUE WET
PATTERN CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. ECMWF LOW AT 06Z LAST
NIGHT WAS PLOTTED CLOSE TO SATELLITE PER THE 3.9U CHANNEL
OBSERVATION. CLOSED LOW WAS IN SW NM WITH PLENTY OF FORCING AND
IMPULSES OUT AHEAD. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ALSO AIDING IN CURRENT
AND FUTURE SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY OVER OUR AREA.

CURRENT LOW PROGGED OVER THE TX PANHANDLE AT 06Z TUE AS YET
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS IN SOUTH OVER THE ROCKIES LATE IN THE WEEK.
A LOW CLOSES OFF AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE 4 CORNERS
AROUND 06Z THU. MODELS INDICATING THIS SETTING UP SIMILAR TO THE
CURRENT SITUATION WITH IMPULSES EJECTING EAST AND A DIFFLUENT
UPPER PATTERN. THIS SPELLS ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSTM CHANCES INTO
THU/FRI/SAT HOWEVER CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE AS HIGH ESPECIALLY
GETTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. BY 18Z SUN THE CLOSED LOW HOVERS AROUND
WESTERN KS AND SHOULD BE PUSHING RAIN CHANCES EASTWARD WITH IT.
INTERESTING TO NOTE YET ANOTHER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW
DIVES SOUTH OFF THE CA COAST PER THE GFS AND ECMWF AT THE 200 TO
240 HOUR MARK. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS BUT DOES CONTINUE THE
CURRENT TREND OF A VERY ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WITH SYSTEM LINED
UP FOR THE NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY BEYOND. /KEG/

MARINE...OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE
SE AND S THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS NEVER REALLY SEEM TO GET
VERY STRONG SO ONLY LOOKING FOR MODERATE ONSHORE AT TIMES...IN THE
10-15KT RANGE. B/C CONCERN WOULD BE IN THE NEXT 12 HRS WITH
CONVECTION CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE NW GULF. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS
STRONG AND IF IT HOLDS WILL LIKELY PROMPT MARINE WARNINGS AS IT
MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND MONITORING CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 75 67 74 65 / 100 40 80 60
BTR 77 68 75 66 / 100 40 80 50
ASD 77 69 77 67 / 100 30 80 50
MSY 78 70 76 68 / 100 30 70 50
GPT 74 71 74 70 / 100 30 70 50
PQL 77 71 78 70 / 100 30 70 50

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR LAZ040-046>050-
056>070-072.

GM...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR MSZ080>082.

GM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

401 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
NW ONTARIO INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. STRONG QVECTOR DIV IN THE WAKE
OF A DEPARTING SHRTWV AND DROPPING 600-500 MB TEMPS HAVE RESULTED IN
A NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC PROFILE AND MIXING HEIGHT TO NEAR 15K FT WITH
GUSTY WNW WINDS ACROSS THE CWA. THE HIGH SFC-600MB LAPSE RATES HAVE
SUPPORTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES/VIRGA FROM NW WI INTO SRN UPPER MI. DOWNDRAFTS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LIGHT SHOWERS MAY ENHANCED THE GUSTY WINDS AS WAS OBSERVED
AT EGV WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAKENING PRES
GRADIENT...THE GUSTY WINDS AND ISOLD PCPN WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY.
HOWEVER...FCST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD BE STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO
PROVIDE SOME MIXING AND KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO FAR WITH
MIN READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

TUE...CONFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND THE SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION BRINGING SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. MIXING TO
AROUND 5K-6K FT OR 800 MB WILL SUPPORT HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S EAST
TO THE MID 60S SOUTH AND WEST. DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 10F-15F
RANGE WILL RESULT IN RH VALUES AROUND 15 PCT OVER THE CNTRL AND WEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT AT 500MB AND
LINGERING AT THE SFC. WITH PW VALUES AROUND 0.25IN OR LESS AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY OVER THE E THIRD OF UPPER MI...FELT REASONABLE TO
LOWER THE MIN TEMPS FOR THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS WEDNESDAY
MORNING TO RIGHT AROUND 30F.

THE APEX OF THE 500MB RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH NEARING FROM S CENTRAL CANADA.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE HIGHER FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR FAR W
AND FAR S CENTRAL UPPER MI /S OF A LINE FROM IMT TO ISQ/. THIS WILL
BE WHERE RH VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS COMBINE WITH TEMPS AROUND 15F
ABOVE NORMAL. ON A POSITIVE NOTE...WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT S
CENTRAL. LOOKING AT THE FCST SOUNDINGS ANYTHING ABOVE 15KTS WOULD BE
ABOVE 400MB...OR AFTER 21Z CLOSER TO THE SFC. PW VALUES OVER THE E
HALF REMAIN AROUND 0.25IN OR LESS /DRIEST OF THE NAM SOLUTION/. OVER
THE FAR W...CLOSER TO THE NEARING LOW...S WINDS COULD GUSTS NEAR 15-
20KTS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AT THE SFC...LOOK FOR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE S
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER DOWN THROUGH E CO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING TO DIVIDE INTO 2 SEPARATE SYSTEMS. THE S LOW WILL SINK INTO
TX WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE N LOW HEADS NE INTO HUDSON
BAY THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT THE STEADY STATE SFC RIDGE ACROSS UPPER
MI TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AS A RESULT OF THE
NEARING LOW. THE BROAD S CENTRAL CANADIAN TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BRING A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE S HUDSON BAY
LOW THROUGH N MN. IT TENDS TO WASHOUT A BIT AS IT NEARS THE AREA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WILL HAVE S-SSW WINDS JUST ABOVE
THE SFC /900-950MB/ OF 30-35KTS. SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH OF AN INVERSION
SET UP TO KEEP THESE WINDS FROM BEING REALIZED...WITH AROUND A 5-
10KT PUFF AT THE SFC.

THE 13/00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE/STRONGER WITH THE COLD
FRONT...WITH SIGHT SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING AND W-NW WINDS SLIDING
IN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO
AROUND 2C BY 06Z FRIDAY. BY CONTRAST THE 13/12Z GFS STILL HAS S FLOW
AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND 7C...AND REMAINS DRY. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS
SLOWLY LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY...BUT AM NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT ANY
CHANCE OF PRECIP IN OUR MAINLY DRY PATTERN. THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO WIDEN AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST LOOKS TO BE A SHORTWAVE NEARING IN THE
NW FLOW FROM S MANITOBA/NW MN FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO LAKE
SUPERIOR/UPPER MI FRIDAY EVENING. THE GFS IS STRONGER AND DEEPER
WITH THE SYSTEM...WITH A 996MB SFC LOW NEAR JAMES BAY BY 06Z
SATURDAY...AND PUMPS UP ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE 500MB LOW
EJECTING OUT OF THE SW STATES. THE ECMWF IS HOVERING AROUND
1007MB...TRACKING THE LOW OVER E LAKE SUPERIOR AND SE ONTARIO...AND
IS RUNNING INDEPENDENT OF THE S LOW SPINNING AROUND THE 4 CORNERS
REGION.

WITHOUT A LOT OF FANFARE...THE 13/00Z ECMWF MERGES THIS 4 CORNERS
LOW BACK INTO THE NEXT WAVE SINKING ACROSS MT AND THE PLAINS STATES
ON SUNDAY. THE RESULT WOULD BE PRECIP NEARING AGAIN FOR MONDAY ON E-
SE WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND 3C. THE 12Z RUN IS A LITTLE SLOWER
AND KEEPS PRECIP OUT OF THE CWA UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON W.

THE GFS KEEPS THE N AND S STREAMS A BIT MORE SEPARATED. AT 12Z
SUNDAY SFC LOWS OVER SW ONTARIO AND AR SLOWLY MERGE 12Z MONDAY
ACROSS LAKE HURON. PRECIP LOOKS TO SKIP UPPER MI UNTIL -10C AIR
PUSHES IN FROM THE NW ON MONDAY. SO THE MAIN QUESTION IS...WILL OUR
NEXT CHANCE OF ANY REAL PRECIP BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE
GFS BELIEVES...OR WILL IT HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK LIKE THE
ECMWF. WILL LOOK AT THE ENSEMBLE FCSTS...AND A GENERAL BLEND MAY BE
THE WAY TO GO FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015

ANY LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT SAW ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS STRONG DRYING MOVES IN THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING...ALL SITES WILL HAVE GUSTY WINDS REACHING 30 KTS OR
HIGHER AT BOTH KCMX AND KSAW. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN LATER THIS EVENING
WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL MIXING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015

AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS THIS EVENING...EXPECT THE GUSTY WRLY
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS TO FALL BELOW 25 KNOTS. HIGH PRES BUILDING
OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND TUE WILL KEEP WINDS BLO 20 KNOTS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MELTING SNOW AND RUNOFF FROM THE AVERAGE
0.25IN OF RAIN THAT FELL THIS MORNING. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS HAVE
ONLY PATCHES OF SNOW LEFT...A FEW SPOTS STILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT SNOW
/MOHAWK WITH 17IN AND MUNISING WITH 19IN/. THE FORECAST GETS A BIT
TRICKY FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON...BUT UNTIL THEN NO ADDITIONAL PRECIP
IS EXPECTED.

DAY SHIFT ISSUED A HYDROLOGICAL STATEMENT /RVS/ FOR PRICKETT DAM ON
THE STURGEON RIVER...WHICH WAS AT 7.1FT AT 10AM MONDAY. FLOOD STAGE
IS 8 FT THERE.

ALONG WITH THE SURGEON RIVER OF BARAGA AND HOUGHTON COUNTIES...THE
ESCANABA RIVER WILL ALSO APPROACH BANKFULL STAGE IN SOME SPOTS MID-
WEEK...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT THE HEADWATERS OF THESE RIVER
HAVE THE MOST SNOW. THE MICHIGAMME RIVER ALSO HAS GREATER SNOWPACK
IN THE HEADWATERS REGION OF THE PESHEKEE RIVER...BUT IT SHOULD TAKE
LONGER FOR THAT WATER TO REACH LOWER SECTIONS OF THE RIVER MORE
PRONE TO FLOODING. STILL...NOT SEEING ANYTHING SUGGESTING MORE THAN
ACTION STAGE POSSIBLE ON THE MICHIGAMME RIVER. OVERALL...NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
HYDROLOGY...KF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

353 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015

DAY SHIFT ISSUED A HYDROLOGICAL STATEMENT /RVS/ FOR PRICKETT DAM ON
THE STURGEON RIVER...WHICH WAS AT 7.1FT AT 10AM MONDAY. FLOOD STAGE
IS 8 FT THERE.

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
HYDROLOGY...KF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

127 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

MILD AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO START THE PERIOD BEFORE
SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN ARRIVE ON A SERIES OF TROUGHS THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
HYDROLOGY...TITUS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
125 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015

QPF WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE ARND .25 TO .50 INCHES AND WILL NOT
CAUSE ANY HYDRO ISSUES AT THIS POINT EXCEPT KEEP RIVERS AND
STREAMS RUNNING HIGH WITH NO FLOOD ISSUES THRU MID-WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND LASTS THROUGH WED
AND WED NGT WITH FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH
MAXES REACHING INTO CLOSE TO OR ABOVE 60F EACH DAY.

TEMPERATURES ROUND OUT THE WEEK IN SEASONABLE FASHION WITH COOLER
THAN NORMAL SUNDAY-MONDAY.

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
125 PM UPDATE.

SOME MID LVL CLDS EARLIER THIS MORNING...WITH REMAINS OF PLAINS
SYSTEM LIFTING NE ACROSS N PA AND NY STATE.

AT THE CURRENT TIME...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL...WITH JUST SOME MID
AND HIGH CLDS.

EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO PICK UP THIS AFT...AS THE GRADIENT
INCREASES...AND MORE MIXING OCCURS.

EXPECT SOME SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. LEFT THUNDER OUT.
INSTABILITY NOT REAL HIGH...AND HEIGHT FALLS LIMITED. WINDS MAY
BE GUSTY AROUND SHOWERS...GIVEN DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS. MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR FEW HOURS.

DID NOT MAKE ANY LARGE CHANGES...JUST SLOWED FRONT DOWN BY AN HOUR
OR SO ACROSS THE EAST AND SE SITES.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF TUE INTO WED. MOST LIKELY
THU TOO...AS NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE EVEN SLOWER ON THE NEW MODEL
RUNS TODAY.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE...BECMG VFR.

WED-THU...VFR.

THU NGT-SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA.

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...WFO CTP
NEAR TERM...WFO CTP
SHORT TERM...WFO CTP
LONG TERM...WFO CTP
AVIATION...WFO CTP/MARTIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

337 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY
TO A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SET UP A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH THAT WILL KEEP THE LATE WEEK WEATHER RATHER
UNSETTLED. THIS MAY PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...ON SHORE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY
THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ALLOWING COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT TO MOVE INLAND
AND NORTH. BASICALLY WILL SEE E-NE WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO SE-S.
THIS WILL PRODUCE INCREASING FETCH OF MOISTURE FEED FROM THE
ATLANTIC CLOSER TO THE SURFACE WHILE WINDS THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH...ADVECTING MOISTURE UP FROM THE
GULF. OVERALL EXPECT MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN TO INCREASE
THROUGH TONIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT
INITIALLY...THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WILL BE OVER SOUTH CAROLINA
WHERE COASTAL SHOWERS SHOULD ADVECT ON SHORE. ALSO SEEMS TO BE
WHERE BEST WIND SHEAR AND CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED. OTHER PLACES
WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CHC OF PCP THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS WARM FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND AND NORTH. BEST
LIFT WILL SHIFT TO NC COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF OTHERWISE.

A COUPLE OF WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL APPROACH IN SW FLOW AROUND RIDGE AND MAY ACT TO ENHANCE THE
LIFT AND PCP THROUGH THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE REMAINS ON THE
INCREASE. PCP WATER VALUES WILL REACH UP NEAR 1.75 INCHES OVER SC
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND NC THROUGH THIS EVENING. OVERALL EXPECT
BEST CHC OF PCP TO BE ALIGNED ALONG COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT AS
IT PUSHES NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST NAM ACTUALLY SHOWS SOME
SUBSIDENCE AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER MUCH OF AREA AND HRRR SHOWS
LIMITED...IF ANY...PCP AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT ALSO SHOWS THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE RIDING OVER THE FORECAST OFFICE NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK WITH VORT MAX JUST OFF THE COAST. THEREFORE SHOULD MOST
PCP TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AND GREATER CHC OF SHWRS ALONG AND
OFF THE COAST TOWARD MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE MILD SIDE. CLOUD COVER HAS
WORKED TO OFFSET SOME OF THE WAA THIS AFTN. MOISTURE RETURN WILL
BRING DEWPOINT TEMPS UP INTO THE 60S. THE CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE
RICH AIR WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT FROM DROPPING BELOW THE MID 60S MOST
PLACES.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 3 PM MONDAY... FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP LAYER OF
SATURATION FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY. AND WHILE THE ENTIRE DAY WILL NOT BE
A WASHOUT IT IS QUITE DIFFICULT TO HAVE ANY GIVEN HOUR WITH LOW POPS
DUE TO SEVERAL SMALL SCALE PERTURBATIONS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW.
GIVEN WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY DISCERNING HOW
MUCH INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. REGARDLESS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED THUNDER BUT BREAKS OR SUFFICIENT THINNING IN CLOUDS COULD
LEAD TO ENOUGH INSTABILITY SUCH THAT SPC HAS REFERENCED NC IN THW
SWODY2. CHANCE FOR ACTUAL SEVERE WEATHER TOO LOW FOR EVEN A
`MARGINAL` ISOPLETH IN THE OUTLOOK. GIVEN RELATIVELY LOW LCLS/MEAGER
LAPSE RATES FAVORING FAIRLY THIN BUT TALL CAPE AND THE LACK OF ANY
DRY AIR THE MAIN `THREAT` WILL BE NON-SEVERE (20-40MPH) WET
DOWNBURSTS. THE GFS DOES SHOW SOME DRYING AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DCAPE BY 00Z DUE TO THE EXIT OF DAY`S STRONGEST SHORTWAVE BUT MUCH
PAST PEAK HEATING THERE MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT LIFT REMAINING FOR
DEEP CONVECTION. COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
TUESDAY NIGHT ENDING MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE LIGHTNING AS LOW LEVELS
STRONGLY STABILIZE UNDERNEATH INVERSION AND LIFT REMAINS TOO WEAK
TO TAP ELEVATED INSTABILITY, IF ANY. LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN THEN
STAYS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE WEDGE
CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE WEAK OVERRUNNING. HIGH TEMPS FROM TUESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY WILL GO FROM ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO TO ROUGHLY 5
DEGREES BELOW. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WEDGE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF WEDNESDAY HIGHS NEED TO BE LOWERED A FEW DEGREES.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
GULF OF MEXICO ALONG WITH 5H TROUGHING/CUTOFF OVER THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS WILL SPREAD DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE START OF
NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION TO THE DEEP MOISTURE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL ENSURE A STEADY SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EJECTING FROM THE 5H
CUTOFF PASS OVER THE REGION. THESE WAVES MAY WORK TO ENHANCE DIURNAL
CONVECTION...DEPENDING ON THEIR TIMING. TIMING THESE FEATURES IN THE
EXTENDED IS DIFFICULT AT BEST AND GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT
TO AVAILABLE DIURNAL INSTABILITY AS WELL AS THE LOCATION OF ANY
LINGERING CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES DO NOT PLAN ON ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO
POP FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES THU WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW CLIMO WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING DOWN THE COAST FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE PARENT HIGH MOVES OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRI...BREAKING THE RIDGE AND ALLOWING
PASSAGE OF WEAK WARM FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH. THIS WILL USHER IN A
PERIOD OF HIGHS AND LOWS ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO BUT IS ALSO
LIKELY TO KEEP PRECIP CHANCES ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CUTOFF
EMERGING FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND WILL HELP DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING BUT GFS IS A BIT FASTER...SUN NIGHT...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER...LATER MON.

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOW VFR CIGS ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING WITH TEMPO MVFR
CIGS KMYR/KCRE/KFLO. SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF KMYR ARE
MOVING ONSHORE AND DEVELOPING TOWARDS KFLO. THE AREAS OF SHOWERS ARE
LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH. THERE MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE MVFR/SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE KFLO/KMYR/KCRE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR TEMPO MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND IFR WILL BE
AT KCRE/KMYR AS SEA FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPS AS THE MARINE LAYER BECOMES
SATURATED.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GFS TIME HEIGHTS/MOS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS/POSSIBLY MVFR...BUT THE NAM MODEL SUGGESTS LIFR/IFR. A
WARM FRONT APPROACHING AND A LOWERING FRONTAL INVERSION SUGGESTS IFR/LIFR.
WILL KEEP TAFS AS THEY ARE AND RE-EVALUATE ON NEXT TAF PACKAGE. THE WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE S-N SHIFTING WINDS TO LIGHT SW BY MORNING. CIGS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER SUNRISE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TUES AND WED...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/IFR EARLY WITH CIGS
BECOMING MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. MVFR/SHOWERS THURS
THROUGH FRI. VFR SAT.

.MARINE...

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...ON SHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST ALLOWING COASTAL TROUGH TO PUSH INLAND AND NORTH. LIGHT
E-NE FLOW THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE E-SE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND SE-S BY MORNING. THE ONSHORE PUSH OF WINDS WILL CAUSE
A RISE IN SEAS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MOST WATERS REMAINING
BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FT BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME NEAR 6 FT IN OUTER
WATERS. WILL HOLD OFF WITH ANY SCA AS IT WOULD BE VERY BORDERLINE.
THE LONGER PERIOD SWELLS WILL TRANSLATE OVER TO SHORTER PERIOD
WIND WAVE INFLUENCE AS WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

ONCE COASTAL TROUGH MOVES FARTHER INLAND AND WINDS SHIFT TO MORE
SOUTHERLY BY MORNING...THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY ALLOWING
LONGER PERIOD SWELLS TO DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN. THIS WILL HELP TO
BRING OVERALL SEAS DOWN SLIGHTLY BY MORNING.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 3 PM MONDAY... SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY IN A
PREFRONTAL FLOW REGIME AS BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
NEITHER WINDS NOR SEAS WILL BE PARTICULARLY STIRRED UP SO THE MAIN
THREAT TO MARINERS WILL BE THE FACT THAT SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
COULD PRODUCE HEAVY ENOUGH RAINFALL FOR SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
IN ADDITION TO SOME FAIRLY GUSTY (30-40KT) WINDS. LATE NIGHT FROPA
MAY CHANGE THAT HOWEVER AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STARTS GETTING
ESTABLISHED OVER LAND. AS THIS FEATURE STRENGTHENS IN PART DUE TO
RAIN FALLING INTO IT THE GRADIENT AND RESULTING WIND/SEAS WILL RISE.
AN ADVISORY WILL BE HOISTED AT SOME POINT THOUGH ACTUAL ADVISORY
CONDITIONS/6FT SEAS LIKELY NOT MATERIALIZING TIL NIGHTTIME.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...PINCHED GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH RIDGING IN FROM
THE NORTH AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE 20
TO 25 KT RANGE THU AND THU NIGHT. EXTENDED PERIOD OF INCREASED
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS OVER 6 FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS
AND HEADLINES ARE LIKELY TO BE CARRIED OVER FROM THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. GRADIENT WEAKENS FRI AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AS TROUGH MOVES
ONSHORE/LIFTS NORTH. AS THIS OCCURS WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST
THU NIGHT TO EAST LATER FRI WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING LAT FRI
NIGHT AND CONTINUING ON SAT. WEAKER GRADIENT FRI AND SAT WILL KEEP
SPEEDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS DECREASING FROM 3 TO 5 FT
FRI MORNING TO 2 TO 3 FT SAT AFTERNOON.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

300 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH ON TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1040 AM MONDAY...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 312 AM MONDAY...

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM MONDAY...

WED/WED NIGHT: THE DISPARITY IN MODELS SOLUTIONS STARTS TO GROW
MIDWEEK. EXPECT A GOOD BIT OF CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SRN
AND WRN CWA... NEAR THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE SETTLING JUST SOUTH OF
THE STATE AND IN THE LOW LEVEL TERRAIN UPGLIDE REGION...
RESPECTIVELY. BUT PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD INITIALLY BE LIGHT...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN/NE CWA. LARGE AND COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER SE CANADA WILL NOSE SOUTHWARD INTO NC WED WITH THE
FRONT SITTING JUST TO OUR SOUTH. LOW LEVEL FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
WILL BE FROM THE NE... LIMITING MOIST UPGLIDE... ALTHOUGH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY HOLD OVER THE SRN AND SW CWA. A
SUBTLE MID LEVEL WAVE THAT APPEARS TO ORIGINATE FROM THE NWRN GULF
(POTENTIALLY AN MCV RESULTING FROM A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX) TUE MORNING
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE NE... REACHING CENTRAL NC AND ADJACENT
VA LATE WED... AND WHILE THIS SHOULD GREATLY INCREASE MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY... THE DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTENING IS IN
QUESTION WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE AND LITTLE EVIDENCE OF LOW
LEVEL MOIST UPGLIDE UNTIL AFTER SUNDOWN. EVEN AFTER THE MID LEVEL
WAVE/MCV ARRIVES LATE WED... THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER DRY OVER
THE NE HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA... ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL MOIST
UPGLIDE DOES BEGIN TO RAMP UP OVER THE SRN CWA OVERNIGHT. WE SHOULD
ALSO SEE INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT ROOTED AT A HIGH LEVEL DUE TO
A POCKET OF ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
JETLET TRACKING UP THROUGH THE MID SOUTH AND SRN APPALACHIANS. SO
THE BIG QUESTION IS: WILL THE MID/HIGH LEVEL LIFT BE SUFFICIENT TO
OVERCOME DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS? STATISTICAL GUIDANCE POPS
REMAIN QUITE HIGH... BUT THE SREF GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A DRIER SCENARIO
WITH LOW PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE PRECIP DURING THE DAY... NOT
INCREASING UNTIL WED NIGHT AND EVEN THEN MAINLY IN THE SW CWA. WILL
STAY BELOW STATISTICAL GUIDANCE POPS... ESPECIALLY WED... PEAKING IN
THE 20-25% RANGE IN THE NORTHEAST AND 30-50% IN THE SOUTH WED NIGHT.
EXPECT COOL TEMPS... WITH HIGHS WED IN THE LOW-MID 60S AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50.

THU/THU NIGHT: RAIN CHANCES APPEAR GREATEST ON THU... AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND TRACK
SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER ERN SC AND SE NC... WHILE ALOFT... WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING IS PROJECTED TO AMPLIFY AS IT TRACKS OVERHEAD...
MOVING TOWARD THE NE. THE NAM LOOKS TOO EMPHATIC WITH ITS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AS IT IS QUITE ROBUST WITH ITS HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE MID
LEVELS ON DOWN TO THE SURFACE. BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN IS REASONABLE
WITH ALONG-FRONT LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SERVING TO
BOLSTER ATLANTIC-SOURCE INFLOW INTO CENTRAL NC. WILL GO WITH 45-60%
POPS... HIGHEST IN THE WEST AND SOUTH WHERE THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WILL BE GREATEST ON TOP OF TERRAIN-FORCED ASCENT. EXPECT RAIN
CHANCES TO DROP BACK TO LOWER CHANCES THU NIGHT AS THE 00Z ECMWF
SUGGESTS... BUT GIVEN THE VAST DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
WITH GROWTH OF THESE DIFFERENCES AS WE GO OUT IN TIME... CONFIDENCE
IS LESS THAN USUAL FOR A DAY-3 FORECAST. THE CENTER OF THE PARENT
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE SHIFTING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST WHILE
CONTINUING TO WEDGE DOWN THROUGH NC... AND WITH FORCED UPGLIDE OVER
THE COLD DOME... WE`RE LIKELY TO BE QUITE COOL... AND WILL HAVE
HIGHS THU WELL BELOW NORMAL... FROM THE UPPER 50S NW TO MID 60S SE.
LOWS 52-59.

FRI-MON: FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOWER THAN USUAL... ALTHOUGH
THIS DOES LOOK TO BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD AS WE REMAIN LARGELY UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF MINOR PERTURBATIONS EMANATING FROM A DEEP LOW OVER
THE SOUTHWEST STATES... ACTING ON AN ATYPICALLY MOIST AIR MASS IN
PLACE OVER CENTRAL NC... FOR FRI INTO SAT. A RESIDUAL COOL POOL
SHOULD HOLD OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO MUCH OF FRI... RENDERING IT
ANOTHER BELOW-NORMAL DAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS... BUT THE ABSENCE OF
STRONG FORCING FEATURES TO PROMPT PRECIP DEVELOPMENT MAY ALLOW THIS
STABLE AIR MASS TO PARTIALLY MIX OUT WITH HEATING. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SLOWLY FILL THE SOUTHWEST LOW AND TRACK IT TOWARD THE EAST-
NORTHEAST SUN/MON... BUT AT VASTLY DIFFERING DEGREES AND SPEEDS... A
RESULT OF BIG DIFFERENCES IN THEIR NORTHERN STREAMS... WHICH ARE
CLOSE TO 180 DEGREES OUT OF PHASE WITH EACH OTHER AS EARLY AS FRI.
THE 12Z/13 ECMWF IS INITIALLY STRONGER THAN THE GFS WITH ITS SW LOW
OVER NM/WRN TX FRI NIGHT... HOWEVER BY SAT NIGHT/SUN THE ECMWF
STRENGTHENS A NORTHERN STREAM LOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
CANADIAN MARITIMES... MUCH MORESO THAN THE GFS... AND AS A RESULT
THE ECMWF HOLDS A STRONGER/SLOWER RIDGE JUST UPSTREAM OVER NC AND
GREATLY WEAKENS AND SLOWS THE FORMER NM/TX LOW. SO AFTER A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FRI/SAT... WE MAY SEE EITHER DRIER/COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT SETTLING TO OUR SOUTH AS THE ECMWF INDICATES...
OR MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS THE GFS SUGGESTS... OR
SOMETHING IN BETWEEN. WILL RETAIN DAILY CHANCE POPS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD... SLIGHTLY HIGHER FRI INTO SAT THEN AGAIN ON MON... WITH THE
GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT BY THAT TIME WE`LL HAVE IMPROVING RAIN CHANCES
AS THE LOW-TURNED-SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TEMPS
NEAR TO JUST UNDER SEASONAL VALUES. -GIH

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM MONDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: INCREASING CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE RISE AND THIS
IS DEPICTED WELL ON VISIBLE SATELLITE AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD
THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. AS MOISTURE ADVECTS IN OFF THE
COAST FROM THE SOUTH...SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY AT KFAY. OTHER THAN SPOTTY SHOWERS IN
THE WEST AND THE SOUTH...CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY VFR FOR QUITE SOME
TIME. WITH MOISTURE AND CEILINGS GENERALLY COMING IN FROM WEST TO
EAST...EXPECT KINT AND KGSO TO HAVE SUB-VFR CEILINGS FIRST WITH
BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY KRDU AND KFAY AND
THEN FINALLY KRWI GOING DOWN BELOW VFR LAST. CEILINGS WILL BE THE
MAIN PROBLEM OVERNIGHT WITH VISIBILITIES POSSIBLY GOING DOWN AS WELL
BUT THAT WONT MATTER BECAUSE THE CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO
IFR LEVELS EVERYWHERE AND POSSIBLY LIFR BETWEEN 6-12Z TUESDAY. LATE
IN THE TAF PERIOD...MOST OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL SHOULD BE CONFINED
NORTH OF THE AREA AND THERE COULD BE A LULL IN RAIN OVER THE CWA
WITH AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CEILINGS AFTER DAYBREAK AND POSSIBLY
EVEN BACK TO VFR AT KFAY NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY VEER FROM A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION TO A MORE
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS OF 5-10 KTS WILL PREVAIL.

LONG TERM: AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SUB VFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IN EXACTLY WHEN...WHERE...OR HOW
PROLONGED THESE PERIODS OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE. IN GENERAL
THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE FOR ADVERSE CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY UNDER A COLD AIR DAMMING PATTERN WITH MORE BREAKS TO VFR
LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE CAD MOVES OUT AND MORE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
TAKE OVER.

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...ELLIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

246 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST WILL MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE
THROUGH TONIGHT AS COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT PUSHES INLAND AND
NORTH. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...STALLING TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THIS FRONT FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING OVERHEAD
MAY PROLONG THE UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...SUFFICE TO SAY ITS GOING TO RAIN DURING THE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME BUT WHEN AND JUST HOW MUCH
REMAINS TO BE SEE. A BROAD AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
WORK WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTH.
TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR DECENT RAINFALL AS A COUPLE
OF SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS. WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING MORE LIKE A
DRIZZLY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN EVENT AS WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE
THE PRIMARY CATALYST. WE ARE CARRYING LIKELY POPS MOST OF TUESDAY
TRENDING DOWN WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S TUESDAY AND DROP
OFF A BIT WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MODERATED BY THE MOISTURE FALLING INTO THE
MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AS A BROAD
SOUTHWEST ALOFT CONTINUES WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE. THE MAIN
SURFACE FEATURE WILL BE HIGH PRESSURE CONFIGURED IN A WEDGE
PATTERN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MOISTURE RIDING OVER THE COOLER
AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM. HOWEVER
THE GFS SHOWS A MORE DECENT SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THURSDAY TO
ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY. IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW ON JUST WHEN THE BEST FORCING OCCURS AS THERE WILL BE SEVERAL
WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. POPS TREND DOWN FOR THE WEEKEND BUT
CANNOT BE REMOVED AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURE FORECAST SHOWS HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TUES AND WED...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/IFR EARLY WITH CIGS
BECOMING MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. MVFR/SHOWERS THURS
THROUGH FRI. VFR SAT.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...ON SHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST ALLOWING COASTAL TROUGH TO PUSH INLAND AND NORTH. LIGHT
E-NE FLOW THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE E-SE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND SE-S BY MORNING. THE ONSHORE PUSH OF WINDS WILL CAUSE
A RISE IN SEAS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MOST WATERS REMAINING
BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FT BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME NEAR 6 FT IN OUTER
WATERS. WILL HOLD OFF WITH ANY SCA AS IT WOULD BE VERY BORDERLINE.
THE LONGER PERIOD SWELLS WILL TRANSLATE OVER TO SHORTER PERIOD
WIND WAVE INFLUENCE AS WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...THE MAIN STORY FOR THE SHORT TERM MARINE
FORECAST WILL BE THE WIND SHIFT THAT OCCURS EARLY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. PRIOR TO THIS...WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 10-15 KNOTS. THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
BUILD THROUGH THE DAY TO AN EVENTUAL 20-25 KNOTS AND PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL INCREASE IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE INCREASE
IN WINDS. EXPECT AROUND TWO FEET TUESDAY JUMPING UP TO SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA LATER WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS INITIALLY AND FAIRLY STRONG WITH
A RANGE OF 15-20 KNOTS. IF THE LATEST OPERATIONAL GFS WERE TO VERIFY
WINDS MAY TURN OUT TO BE MUCH HIGHER AS THE GRADIENT IN THIS MODEL
IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE. FOR NOW WILL TAKE THE MORE CONSERVATIVE
APPROACH. WINDS DIMINISH FRIDAY AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO ACQUIRE AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT. SEAS WILL BE WORKED UP THURSDAY ECLIPSING SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA THEN SEE A DECREASE FRIDAY.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

143 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH ON TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1040 AM MONDAY...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 312 AM MONDAY...

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM MONDAY...

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM MONDAY...

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...ELLIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

656 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT...BRINGING A
SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO ALL OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE NORTHWEST. FAIR WEATHER WITH NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. MORE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SKIES STILL MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS EVENING AS
SHALLOW FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FRESH
SOUTHERLY BREEZES AND STRONG MIXING IN THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
ALLOWED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO SURGE INTO THE 70S THROUGHOUT
THE AREA...CLOSE TO 80 OVER PARTS OF THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
(KDUJ WAS 79F ON THE HOUR OF THEIR 4PM OB).

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE STEADILY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS EVENING. SHOWERS ARE JUST ARRIVING OVER NORTHWEST WARREN
COUNTY...THE LEADING EDGE OF WHAT WILL BE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
HAVE NULLIFIED THE CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER OVER NORTHWEST
PA...DESPITE THE IMPRESSIVE AFTERNOON HEATING. GUSTY WINDS AHEAD
AND ALONG THE LINE OF SHOWERS WILL STILL PRODUCE 25 TO 35MPH WINDS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LINE PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY MID TO LATE
EVENING.

THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH BFD BY 02Z AND UNV/IPT BY 08Z AND
LINGER A LITTLE OVER THE SE...BUT SHOULD CLEAR OUT LANCASTER CO
AROUND OR EVEN BEFORE 9 AM TUES. QPF STILL LOOKS AROUND HALF OF AN
INCH...BUT PROBABLY A LITTLE LESS IN THE CENTRAL ZONES WITH THE
FAST MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND ATTENDANT SHOWERS. LOW TEMPS EARLY
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S OVER THE NORTH...AND UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTH.

LATEST HI RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WAVE RIPPLES ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE SLOWING ITS SOUTHEASTERN PROGRESS OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS
STALLING IT OR ALLOWING BACKBUILDING FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT.
SHOULD THIS OCCUR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS COULD SEE AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF ONE HALF INCH. THE AREA NEEDS THE RAINFALL...AND ANOTHER
QUARTER INCH WOULD HARDLY BE CAUSE FOR FLOODING CONCERNS...BUT FOR
NOW WILL WATCH AS THE LINE EVOLVES AND PUSHES EAST.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ANY EARLY MORNING SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY MOVE
OUT QUICKLY...AND GOOD CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH
AND CENTRAL AREAS WILL BRING A NICE DAY FOR MOST. ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE MASON DIXON LINE...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAY LINGER
LONGER...SO AM PESSIMISTIC ONLY FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...LAURELS AND LOWER SUSQ WITH RESPECT TO
SUNSHINE...WHICH MAY KEEP TEMPS A FEW NOTCHES LOWER THAN THE REST
OF CENTRAL PA TUESDAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE THROUGH THE 60S
THROUGHOUT.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WELL DEFINED MCV TRACKING NEWD FROM LA THIS AFTERNOON IS WELL
CAPTURED BY THE MODELS AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK NEWD THROUGH THE
TN VLY TUES AND THE SRN MID ATLC STATES TUE NGT BEFORE MOVG OFF
THE VA/NC COAST BY EARLY WED. MEANWHILE SEASONABLY STG SURFACE
HIGH WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EWD FROM SERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES
OVER NEW ENGLAND WED-THU AND SLIDE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MAIN QUESTION EARLY ON IS HOW FAR PCPN
WILL TRY TO ADVANCE NWD IN ASSOC WITH THE WAVE TRACKING OFF THE
SRN MID ATLC COAST TOMORROW NGT. ENS PWATS ARE BLW NORMAL ACRS
MUCH OF PA SUGGESTING ANY LGT RAIN WOULD BE CONFINED RIGHT ALONG
OR SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. MADE A MINOR CHANGE THIS CYCLE
TO ADD MENTION OF SCHC POPS ALONG THE MD LINE IN COORDINATION
WITH LWX AND PHI TUE NGT. HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN DRY WX ACROSS
THE NRN 2/3 OF THE CWA TOMORROW NGT WITH CHILLY LOWS AROUND 32F
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS. SOME OF THE USUALLY COLDER AREAS COULD GO
EVEN LOWER GIVEN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. NLY FLOW ON THE FRONT
SIDE OF THE HP SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP MINS IN THE 40S OVER THE SCNTRL
MTNS AND MID TO LWR SUSQ VLY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WX PATTERN THROUGH MID WEEK WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS ON DAY 3/WED AND PERHAPS INTO
DAY 4/THU. THE ACTIVE SPRING SPLIT FLOW REGIME EXTENDING FROM THE
PACIFIC ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER WILL LEAD TO SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL PCPN TRENDS ARE
SOMEWHAT EVIDENT BASED ON A BROAD MULTI-MODEL/ENSEMBLE BLEND. THE
SRN STREAM CLOSED LOW EVOLVING SLOWLY EWD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS WILL BE A KEY PLAYER IN DETERMINING HOW
MUCH NRN STREAM ENERGY CAN DIG ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LKS FRI INTO
SAT. ONE OR MORE LEAD IMPULSES IN THE RETURN FLOW WILL SUPPORT A
LOW RISK FOR SHOWERS ON THURS /MAINLY OVER WRN AREAS/ WITH A
CONSENSUS POINTING TOWARD FRI-SAT AS THE "BEST CHANCE" FOR MORE
WDSPRD RAINFALL. THE GFS/EC BOTH HANDLE THE SPLIT FLOW ENERGY
EAST OF THE MS RIVER DIFFERENTLY WHICH CAUSES TIMING ISSUES FOR
POSSIBLE PCPN EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF
DRY WX ON SUNDAY SEEMS TO BE BUILDING AND MATCHES WPC DAY 3-7
PROGS SHOWING HP IN CONTROL. THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MORE ROBUST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THAT TEMPERATURES COULD
TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE MONTH AS THE WRN
NOAM RIDGE IS RE-ESTABLISHED.

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS THIS EVENING WITH ONLY HIGH-BASED CU NOTED
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SLIGHTLY LATER THIS EVENING...BUT IT WILL
REMAIN BREEZY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA FROM NW-SE OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED
BY A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND ASSOC REDUCTIONS LASTING NO MORE THAN
ARND 2 HRS IN MOST SPOTS. LATEST HRRR AND 4KM NAM SUGGEST A TSRA
IS EVEN POSSIBLE AT KBFD ARND 02Z WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT. CAN/T
RULE OUT A BRIEF DIP TO IFR IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH FROPA
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE BEST CHC OF IFR CONDS WILL BE AT KJST
BTWN 06Z-09Z....WHEN POST FRONTAL NW FLOW ASCENDS THE MTNS...POTENTIALLY
RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS.

COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF PA ON TUESDAY...SO CAN/T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT LINGERING SHRA/REDUCTIONS ACROSS THE S TIER OF
THE STATE. HOWEVER...LATEST MDL DATA INDICATES A RETURN TO
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS IS LIKELY...AS HIGH PRES RIDGE AND DRIER
NORTHERLY FLOW WORKS INTO THE STATE.

OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
THU NITE-FRI...SHRA REDUCTIONS TO MVFR LIKELY.
FRI-SAT...CHC SHRA/REDUCED VIS/CIGS POSS.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO/FITZGERALD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

556 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPS GETTING CLOSE TO 80F IN THE WRN COS YET RH/S STILL CLOSE TO
50F. THE SOUTH WINDS HAVE BROUGHT DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 40S
FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NE. DEEP MIXING HAS ALLOWED THE SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO GET GUSTY. THE COLD FRONT IS A LITTLE WEST OF FORT WAYNE
AND INDY AT 2 PM AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE STEADILY ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. SHOWERS DO LOOK LIKE THEY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
SUNSET FOR ALL BUT PERHAPS WARREN COUNTY. WEAK INSTABILITY HAS
ALLOWED A CU FIELD TO DEVELOP OVER WRN PA AND ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES...SO SOME TCU ARE POSSIBLE THERE BEFORE SUNSET - BUT
THE LIMITED MSTR SHOULD KEEP CAPE LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS OUT
UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING.

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A RATHER NARROW AXIS OF PWATS JUST OVER 1 INCH...AND ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG 850 MB WIND OF AROUND 50 KTS WILL RESULT IN A 2-4 HR PERIOD
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST WILL PROBABLY ALLOW FOR SOME THUNDER THERE...BUT LOSS OF
HEATING AND THE UNFAVORABLE/DESCENDING BRANCH OF THE 140KT JET
ACROSS THE PENINSULA OF SRN QUEBEC CANADA SHOULD QUELL THE THUNDER
BEFORE IT GETS TOO FAR INTO CENTRAL PA. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
SHOWERS WILL NEAR THE I-81 CORRIDOR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A CHC STILL EXISTS FOR A GUSTY TSRA ACROSS OUR FAR NW ZONES /WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB-SEVERE GUSTS OF UP TO 40 KTS/ BASED ON
ARRIVAL TIME IN NEAR-PEAK HEATING AND CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
SOUTHERN/TAIL END OF THE STRONGEST LLVL JET. THIS AREA HAS
REMAINED IN THE SPC MARGINAL RISK AREA WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN THE CURRENTLY WARM TEMPS AND 50+ DEWPOINTS BEING ADVECTED IN
FROM THE SW.

THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH BFD BY 02Z AND UNV/IPT BY 08Z AND
LINGER A LITTLE OVER THE SE...BUT SHOULD CLEAR OUT LANCASTER CO
AROUND OR EVEN BEFORE 9 AM TUES. QPF STILL LOOKS AROUND HALF OF AN
INCH...BUT PROBABLY A LITTLE LESS IN THE CENTRAL ZONES WITH THE
FAST MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND ATTENDANT SHOWERS. LOW TEMPS
EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S OVER THE NORTH...AND
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTH. GOOD CLEARING BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE M60S FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE
AREA ON TUES.

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS THIS EVENING WITH ONLY HIGH-BASED CU NOTED
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SLIGHTLY LATER THIS EVENING...BUT IT WILL
REMAIN BREEZY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
THU NITE-FRI...SHRA REDUCTIONS TO MVFR LIKELY.
FRI-SAT...CHC SHRA/REDUCED VIS/CIGS POSS.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO/FITZGERALD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN ANGELO TX

416 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2015

.UPDATE...
Added a flash flood watch through 1 AM CDT for portions of the Big
Country...Concho Valley and Heartland until 1 AM CDt. Slow moving
thunderstorms along and north of a cold front will produce quick
heavy rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches...and may result in flash
flooding.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

Scattered showers and thunderstorms were developing along and north
of a cold front from Mertzon to San Angelo to Brownwood at 3 PM.
SPC RUC analysis indicated SB CAPES around 1000 J/KG in this
area...which is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. The slight risk extends to the I-20 corridor.
While the severe threat is large hail and damaging winds are the
main threats, slow moving thunderstorms focused along the front will
also bring the potential for localized heavy rainfall and flash
flooding. If storm coverage becomes widespread, a flash flood watch
may be needed for Concho Valley to Brownwood and northward to the
I-20 corridor. With an upper low to the northwest in the South
Plains, there is also a low potential for a land spout or brief
tornado. The heavy rain and severe weather threat will diminish a
couple hours after sunset.

The front is indicated to move south to I-10 by midnight. Included a
slight chance of showers or thunderstorms for southern areas, but
severe weather threat is minimal as the front moves into more stable
air.

Keeping a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, along and
northwest of a Sweetwater to Junction line...but most of the
moisture and instability will be southeast of West Central Texas.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)

Dry and warmer conditions are expected Wednesday, as south winds
develop. An upper low will drop southeast into the Central Rockies.
The 12Z GFS and ECMWF differ on the track of this low, and this will
have implications on our rain chances Thursday into the weekend. The
ECMWF is slower and takes the upper low south into New Mexico Friday
and Friday night, then eventually opens the low and tracks the wave
east into Oklahoma Saturday night and Sunday. The GFS has an
elongated trough extending south from the low, and has the low
dropping southeast into the Red River Valley Friday night into
Saturday.

With enough moisture return/availability indicated, we have chance
PoPs for showers and thunderstorms beginning Wednesday night in the
west, and continuing Thursday through late Saturday. A cold frontal
passage is anticipated Thursday night into Friday, but have
uncertainty on the timing with the aforementioned model differences.
Will have to monitor the forecast setup for the potential of strong
to severe storms.

The forecast looks dry Sunday into the first part of next week with
temperatures close to normal.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 51 64 50 82 62 / 70 20 10 10 20
San Angelo 53 70 52 84 62 / 60 10 10 10 20
Junction 56 73 54 84 63 / 20 20 10 10 20

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 1 AM CDT Tuesday FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Fisher...
Irion...Jones...McCulloch...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...
Shackelford...Sterling...Taylor...Tom Green.

04/99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN ANGELO TX

353 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

Keeping a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, along and
northwest of a Sweetwater to Junction line...but most of the
moisture and instability will be southeast of West Central Texas.

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)

The forecast looks dry Sunday into the first part of next week with
temperatures close to normal.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 51 64 50 82 62 / 70 20 10 10 20
San Angelo 53 70 52 84 62 / 60 10 10 10 20
Junction 56 73 54 84 63 / 20 20 10 10 20

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

04/19