Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/12/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
202 PM PDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE
AREA AND BRING DRY WEATHER WITH A DAY TO DAY WARMING TREND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN IS PROVIDING OUR
AREA WITH A DRY DAY ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND TODAY WITH CURRENT
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING 4-6 DEG F ABOVE YDAY. AN UPPER LOW
WELL OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST NEAR 30N/131W IS SPREADING SOME
HIGH CLOUDS INTO CENTRAL CA WHICH HAS SLOWED THE WARMING TREND A
BIT...BUT OTHERWISE HAS HAD LITTLE IMPACT FOR OUR AREA.
THE 12Z WRF AND THE HOURLY HRRR HAVE BEEN INDICATING SOME
INSTABILITY AND CAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH MIGHT ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS
NEAR AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIERRA CREST LATER TODAY. WITH
OFFSHORE THE LOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEAST AND MOVE
FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL PUSH INLAND INTO CA AND BRING CONTINUED WARMING TO OUR AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY FLAT WITH A
WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILING OVER NORCAL. A WEAK IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO
PUSH THROUGH THE RIDGE AND CROSS CENTRAL CA ON SUNDAY WHICH MIGHT
PROVIDE FOR ENOUGH LIFT FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
NEAR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA CREST. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON
MONDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING THE PAC NW COAST.
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A LESS AMPLIFIED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
AND KEEP MOST OF THE MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH
OF OUR AREA. WILL LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA CREST ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONTAL BAND PUSHES
THROUGH CENTRAL CA...BUT THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
BREEZY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES COOLING TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS. RIDGING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO BUILD
INTO CA ON WEDNESDAY THEN AMPLIFY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH
WILL BRING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER TO OUR
AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA
INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 04-10 95:1989 55:1965 60:1989 34:1999
KFAT 04-11 95:1908 53:1998 59:1908 34:1955
KFAT 04-12 96:1908 52:1922 64:1904 34:1953
KBFL 04-10 95:1989 56:1965 61:1989 33:1999
KBFL 04-11 98:1904 53:1965 61:1982 30:1903
KBFL 04-12 98:1908 52:1956 59:1978 33:1903
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...BEAN
SYNOPSIS...DS
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
323 AM MDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT FRI APR 10 2015
WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA THRU TONIGHT AS A WK
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING. THERE WILL BE
QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE ABV 500 MB WITH LAPSE RATES AOB 8 C/KM.
HOWEVER CAPES ARE FCST TO BE ONLY IN THE 100-200 J/KG RANGE MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE PCPN WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF WDLY SCT HIGH BASED SHOWERS WITH THE FOCUS MAINLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE. FOR THIS EVENING
THE HIGH BASED SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY END BEFORE MIDNIGHT. AS FOR
HIGHS THIS AFTN READINGS WILL RISE BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S
OVER NERN CO.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT FRI APR 10 2015
WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LIGHT
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR
SATURDAY...PUSHING HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S OVER THE
PLAINS...WITH UPPER 50S AND 60S MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND
FOOTHILLS...AND 40S IN HIGHER MOUNTAIN AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE MILD ESPECIALLY IN/NEAR THE FRONT
RANGE AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE. THIS
SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO BY LATE IN THE DAY.
THERE IS ONLY SLIGHT COOLING AND LITTLE IF ANY MOISTENING WITH
THIS FRONT. AS A RESULT...SUNDAY WILL FEATURE CONTINUED WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS WITH POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...SEE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THERE IS MORE
AGREEMENT AS DISCUSSED YESTERDAY THAT THE EJECTING TROUGH FROM
BAJA WILL STAY TOO FAR SOUTH TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS LIKELY
PUSHING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S ON THE PLAINS AGAIN BY TUESDAY.
THEN ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD NEXT POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM MOVING IN
FROM THE PACIFIC. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THEN
CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD EXISTS FROM THERE. SOME DRIVE IT TOWARD
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WHILE OTHERS LIKE THE ECMWF MAINTAIN A MUCH
MORE OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE WAVE. HARD TO GET CAUGHT UP IN ANY
DETAILS AT THIS TIME CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF SPREAD EVEN IN THE
GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. WILL HAVE POPS JUST ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY AS
THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO AT LEAST A TROUGH IN THE
VICINITY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT FRI APR 10 2015
WINDS HAVE BECOME SLY EARLY THIS MORNING AND MAY BECOME LIGHT WSW BY
15Z. BOTH THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE A WK DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOPING BY
18Z GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE AIRPORT. IF THIS OCCURS THEN WINDS MAY
TREND TOWARDS A MORE ENE COMPONENT FOR THE AFTN HOURS. BY EARLY
EVENING THE CYCLONE IS FCST TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE WITH DRAINAGE
WINDS DEVELOPING BY 06Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY THRU
TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A MID LVL CLOUD DECK FM MID AFTN THRU
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT FRI APR 10 2015
LOW HUMIDITIES WILL OCCUR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY...THEY WILL STAY UNDER RED FLAG CRITERIA.
ON SUNDAY...GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN MOST
AREAS BY MID DAY WITH INCREASED MIXING AND APPROACH OF COLD
FRONT. HUMIDITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE MUCH WITH THIS DRY
FRONT...SO SOME POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. PEAK GUSTS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE
WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...RPK
FIRE WEATHER...BARJENBRUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
412 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE LOCAL AREA...FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON
SATURDAY...AND THEN SLIDES SOUTH AND THEN EAST OF THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE NEXT WEEK
WITH A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WARM FRONT JUST SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND AS OF 18Z. DESPITE
THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT...FLOW OFF THE OCEAN WATERS ADVECTING
HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE THE REGION SHOULD CONTINUE THE FOGGY
CONDITIONS. THEREFORE...ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM FOR
LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT. FOG AND DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH. LINE OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT IN EASTERN PA AND NY IS ON THE
DOORSTEP OF THE WESTERN SECTION OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS...RADAR COVERAGE HAS DECREASED WITH THIS LINE.
SO...IT WILL REMAIN TO BE SEEN IF THE LINE HOLDS UP. HRRR AND NAM
KEEP IT RATHER DISORGANIZED AS IT MOVES THROUGH...SO REMOVED ANY
MENTION OF THUNDER. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANY
FOG IN THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE BY THEN...IF NOT AN HOUR OR SO
PRIOR. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS TRANQUIL THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...THOUGH IT WILL BE BREEZY AS WE WILL MIX TO ABOUT 850 MB.
DESPITE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...IT WILL BE WARMER ON SATURDAY
THAN FRIDAY DUE TO FULL SUNSHINE. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
SATURDAY NIGHT...IT WILL BE CHILLY OUTSIDE THE NY METRO
AREA...WITH SOME SPOTS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING FOR LOWS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA WITH NIGHT TIME LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWS 40S.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT IN MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT BEST CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK MIDWEEK THEN PUSHES OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FRIDAY...BRINGING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE
LEVELS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING
AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH...AND A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. THE LATTER OF WHICH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE WARM FRONT IS SLATED TO MOVE
THROUGH 18Z TO 20Z.
THIS WILL BE A RATHER CHALLENGING FORECAST THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH OF THE TERMINALS AND WINDS VEER
AROUND TO THE SW. THIS COULD RESULT IN JUST ENOUGH MIXING FOR
GRADUALLY IMPROVING CIGS AND VSBYS. THE LIMITING FACTOR HOWEVER IS
HIGHER DEW POINT AIR MOVING ACROSS THE COOLER NEAR SHORE WATERS
WHICH COULD BRING IN ADVECTION FOG OFF THE OCEAN. THUS...
CONDITIONS CAN ABRUPTLY CHANGE...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE TERMINALS
NEAR THE COAST.
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM 00Z TO 03Z.
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER EMBEDDED WITH THESE SHOWERS....BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.
S/SW 10-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON. W WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT DEVELOP AFTER 12Z
SAT.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO
VFR...MAINLY AFTER 03Z.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING CIG AND VSBY
FLIGHT CATEGORIES.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING CIG AND VSBY
FLIGHT CATEGORIES.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING CIG AND VSBY
FLIGHT CATEGORIES.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING CIG AND VSBY
FLIGHT CATEGORIES.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING CIG AND VSBY
FLIGHT CATEGORIES.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING CIG AND VSBY
FLIGHT CATEGORIES.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SAT NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR. SW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
.TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY
FOR SEAS...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE MARGINAL WIND GUSTS AS WELL.
SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS INTO SAT...BUT HAVE HELD
OFF EXTENDING THE ADVSY FOR NOW WHICH FITS WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES.
DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT ALL WATERS THIS EVENING. DENSE
FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 11 PM. VSBY COULD DROP TO LESS
THAN 1/2 MILE AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO CLIMB OVER THE COLD
WATERS. THE WATERS SURROUNDING NYC COULD SEE LATE DAY OR EARLY
EVENING TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS FRI. APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
ALLOW THE FOG TO LIFT...MAINLY AFTER 11 PM.
SUB SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
OF THE OCEAN WATERS. SEAS AND WINDS INCREASE TO SCA ON OCEAN
WATERS LATE MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND
REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS INTO TUESDAY. SEAS AND WINDS FALL BACK TO
BELOW SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
OCEAN WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF QPF EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH LOCAL AMTS 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER TSTMS IN THE NYC METRO AREA.
DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. NO WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ078>081.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-
338-340-345-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...FIG/JP
HYDROLOGY...FIG/JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
139 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH
MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY DRY AND BRISK
CONDITIONS OPEN THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SUNNY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
GRADUALLY WARMING UP ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S INTO THE LOWER 50S. COLDEST TEMPERATURES JUST EAST OF
THE HIGHER HIGHER OF SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE BERKSHIRES AND IN
PORTION OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY. THE FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE
FILLED BACK IN.
THE 12Z KALY SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL PRE WARM
FRONTAL MARINE-LIKE INVERSION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER /H925-H850/.
THIS LID WILL LIKELY ERODE WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN THE COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD WRN NY WILL
QUICKLY FOLLOW.
SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY
THE COLD FRONT AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN RATHER WEAK...AND
ALSO THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS PASS MAINLY TO OUR N AND W.
HIGHER RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE COLD FRONT REMAINS GENERALLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. WILL
INDICATE MAINLY HIGH CHC POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPS WITHHI9GHS EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST INTO THE
EARLY PM AT 15-25 MPH...ESP ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
TACONICS/GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT
PASSES...EVEN STRONGER WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE SOME GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH COULD OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...EVENING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR AREAS NEAR AND
E OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. SKIES SHOULD THEN BECOME CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY...BEFORE CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INCREASE
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES. SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR LESS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S.
SATURDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
CLOUDS...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN/SNOW...MAINLY
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN VT. SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH PASSES. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER
STRONG THROUGH SATURDAY AS DEEP MIXING OCCURS. EXPECT WIND GUSTS
TO REACH 35-45 MPH IN MANY AREAS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...STRONGEST IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT MAY ONLY REACH THE 30S.
SAT NT-SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SAT NT...AND SUNNY
SKIES ON SUNDAY. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS WILL BE RATHER
COOL...GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. SUN AFTERNOON MAXES
SHOULD BE QUITE MILD WITH LIGHT WINDS...WITH LOWER/MID 60S IN
VALLEYS AND MAINLY 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WE BEGIN THIS LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST UNDER TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
MEANWHILE...RATHER STRONG AND FAST MOVING PACIFIC ENERGY COMES
ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EJECTS OUT ONTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE...THE RETURN FLOW
COMBINING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC ENERGY WILL ALLOW DEEPER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF TO BECOME ENTRAINED ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE IMPACT FOR OUR
REGION WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVING MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
QPF FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW TRENDS OF A BIT HIGHER
AMOUNTS.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY. HOWEVER..CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY KEEP CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE COOL WITH MAINLY 50S AND LOWER 60S EXPECTED.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SURFACE TO
ALOFT WILL NOT ONLY KEEP OUR WEATHER TRANQUIL...BUT WITH THERMAL
PROFILES MODERATING AND MID APRIL SUNSHINE IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE
SPRING THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. AVERAGE HIGHS CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND PERHAPS NEAR 70F WITH FAVORABLE
DOWNSLOPING WITHIN THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE 30S ACROSS THE TERRAIN TO 40S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WE CONTINUE TO OBSERVE MAINLY MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ACROSS THE
REGION WITH RESPECT TO CIGS...EXCEPT FOR KPSF WHERE SOME IFR CIGS
WILL LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. EXPECT AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF
WEATHER FOR THE REGION WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS.
REGION RADAR SHOWS ANOTHER BATCH OF CONVECTION TO MOVE ACROSS THE
TAF SITES THIS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THEN...PER THE HRRR AND 4KM SPC
WRF REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS...SEEMS THERE WILL BE A REDUCTION IN
PRECIP COVERAGE AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. LATER IN THE
DAY...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH A CHC-SCT CONVECTION ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. FOR NOW...WE WILL PLACE A TEMPO GROUP AND MONITOR TRENDS.
FRIDAY EVENING WITH FROPA...WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT FROM THE
WESTERLY DIRECTION WITH FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE INTO KPSF WHERE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER MVFR CIGS A BIT LONGER.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TODAY DUE TO
EXPECTED WET AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AND MAINLY COOL WEATHER.
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...BRINGING RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A MILDER AIR MASS
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH MORE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY DRY AND BRISK CONDITIONS
OPEN THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. SUNNY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR
SUNDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BEFORE
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PERIODS OF RAIN...ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...WILL
OCCUR WITH THESE FEATURES TODAY.
RAINFALL AMTS OVERNIGHT GENERALLY RANGED FROM ONE QUARTER TO ONE
HALF INCH. ANOTHER ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY. THE LATEST MMEFS /ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE/
INDICATES RIVER LEVELS WILL RISE BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...WITH
SEVERAL POINTS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING ACTION STAGE. THE ONLY
POINT THAT MAY REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE IS GILBOA. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER RISES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN BANK RISES ARE POSSIBLE.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW
PASSING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE PRODUCING QPF OF
LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...FRUGIS/BGM/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...KL/BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1124 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE LOCAL AREA TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON
SATURDAY...AND THEN SLIDES SOUTH AND THEN EAST OF THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN
ITS WAKE FOR MIDWEEK. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...WPC HAS ANALYZED THE FRONT OVER THE OCEAN
WATERS MUCH FARTHER NORTH AT 12Z THAN 09Z. THIS MAY HAVE PROMPTED
THE FORMATION OF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OCEAN.
THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...AND IT TAKES IT
WELL OUT TO SEA. CONFIDENCE LOW THAT THE WARM
FRONT WILL JUMP NORTH INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH COLD AIR
DAMMING IN PLACE AND WEAK LLJ OVERHEAD. BETTER CHANCE FOR WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AS LLJ APPROACHES.
THE HRRR ALSO KEEPS IT MAINLY DRY FOR THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT
19Z...WHEN EXTREME WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA WILL START TO SEE
THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL PA
AND NY MOVE IN. CURRENT TIMING WOULD BRING THIS LINE INTO THOSE
AREA BETWEEN 17-18Z. SO...ADDED DRIZZLE TO THE FORECAST UNTIL THE
LINE GETS INTO THE AREA...WHICH COULD HAPPEN A COUPLE OF HOURS
THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND
UPDATE WITH NEXT FORECAST UPDATE.
DON`T THINK THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY...DUE TO
THE TRACK OF THE PARENT LOW PRES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND SE
CANADA TODAY...BUT SHOULD AT LEAST MAKE IT INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE POSITION OF THE FRONT WILL WREAK HAVOC WITH
TEMPS...ESPECIALLY N OF NYC AND LI.
NO BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER JUST YET...AND HAVE INCREASED CLOUD
COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COULD MEAN HIGHS WILL BE LOWER
THAN FORECAST. AGAIN...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. HOWEVER...IF
PART OF THE AREA BECOMES WARM SECTORED...THERE COULD BE SOME
CLEARING ACROSS N AND W OF NYC THIS AFTN WHICH COULD RESULT IN
HIGHER HIGHS THAN FORECAST WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND 15C. THIS COULD
ALSO RESULT IN HIGHER GUSTS AND ALSO MORE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. IF THIS MATERIALIZES...THERE COULD BE GUSTY WINDS WITH
ANY TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FROPA LATE THIS AFTN/EVE.
ALTHOUGH THE SPC`S DAY 1 NO LONGER HAS AREAS IN AND AROUND NYC IN
A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS...WILL LEAVE THE MENTION OF
GUSTY WINDS IN THE HWO DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE AMOUNT OF
CLEARING AND SUBSEQUENT INSTABILITY.
CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH ACROSS LI AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER WITH THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
PCPN EXPECTED TO END DURING MID TO LATE EVENING WITH HIGH PRES
BUILDING IN AND A NW FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND THE COLD FROPA. UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING ALTHOUGH
DOWNSLOPING FLOW SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWERS N AND W OF THE AREA.
GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP SAT MORNING WITH CAA CONTINUING...ALTHOUGH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL FINALLY RETURN.
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40 RANGE...EXCEPT
AROUND 50 IN THE NYC METRO AREA AND RIGHT AROUND NORMAL LEVELS ON
SAT GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
RIDGING BUILDING IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY SLIDES EAST
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. DRY BUT SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED
IN THE WAA RETURN FLOW.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SUN WITH HIGH IN THE LOWER 60S-65 AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH OF THE REGION. LATE DAY SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT
LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY...WHICH SHOULD KNOCK COASTAL TEMPS BACK
INTO THE 50S IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
OFFSHORE AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPS ACROSS THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NE NJ SHOULD MAKE A RUN WELL INTO THE 60S TO
NEAR 70...WHILE A BREEZY SSW FLOW SHOULD LIMIT TEMPS TO THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ALONG THE SOUTH AND EAST COASTAL AREAS.
MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON A SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND PIVOTING
THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A SLOWER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH A BIT MORE GULF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO. HAVE INCREASED CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A RESULT.
THEREAFTER...MODELS CONTINUING TO SIGNAL A DEVELOPING WESTERN TROUGH
GRADUALLY SLIDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE RIDGING BUILDS UP
THE EAST COAST FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK. BUT SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
EXIST IN THE DETAILS. EXPECT MODEL HANDLING OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE
CENTRAL US TROUGH/EAST COAST RIDGING TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS IS THE CASE IN A BLOCKY SPRINGTIME PATTERN. OVERALL
EXPECTATION IS SLOWER MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM IN THIS PATTERN...SO HAVE
TRENDED SLOWER WITH POPS TILL LATE WEEK FOR A POTENT SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT TO BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON EVOLUTION OF THIS
PATTERN...BUT GENERALLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING
AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH...AND A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. THE LATTER OF WHICH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE WARM IS SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH 18Z
TO 20Z.
WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE TODAY WITH
CIGS IMPROVING SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND MOVES THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND FIRST PART OF TONIGHT.
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER EMBEDDED WITH THESE SHOWERS....BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.
ESE-SE WINDS 5-10 KT WILL BECOME S/SW 10-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
W WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO
VFR...MAINLY AFTER 03Z.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY TODAY FOR CHANGING CIG AND
VSBY FLIGHT CATEGORIES. TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 2-3
HOURS.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY TODAY FOR CHANGING CIG AND
VSBY FLIGHT CATEGORIES. TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 2-3
HOURS.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY TODAY FOR CHANGING CIG AND
VSBY FLIGHT CATEGORIES. TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 2-3
HOURS.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY TODAY FOR CHANGING CIG AND
VSBY FLIGHT CATEGORIES. TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 2-3
HOURS.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY TODAY FOR CHANGING CIG AND
VSBY FLIGHT CATEGORIES. TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 2-3
HOURS.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY TODAY FOR CHANGING CIG AND
VSBY FLIGHT CATEGORIES. TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 2-3
HOURS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT PROBABLE.
.SUNDAY-MONDAY...VFR. SW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
.TUESDAY...VFR
&&
.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY
FOR SEAS...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE MARGINAL WIND GUSTS AS WELL.
SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS INTO SAT...BUT HAVE HELD
OFF EXTENDING THE ADVSY FOR NOW WHICH FITS WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES.
DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT ALREADY BEING OBSERVED ALONG OCEAN
WATERS...AND EXPECTED TO WORK ACROSS ALL WATERS THROUGH MORNING AS
LOW-LEVELS SATURATE. EXPECTATION IS THAT VSBY COULD DROP TO LESS
THAN 1/2 MILE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO
CLIMB OVER THE COLD WATERS. DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.
THE WATERS SURROUNDING NYC COULD SEE LATE DAY OR EARLY EVENING
TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS FRI.
SUB SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL SCA WINDS ON OCEAN WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SCA OCEAN SEAS
POSSIBLE LATE MON/MON NIGHT...LINGERING INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OF QPF EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH LOCAL AMTS 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER TSTMS IN THE NYC METRO AREA. LOW POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR NUISANCE URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WOULD BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE HEAVIER AMTS.
DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. NO WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-
338-340-345-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...24/NV
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...24/NV
HYDROLOGY...24/NV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1100 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON..BRINGING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY DRY AND BRISK
CONDITIONS OPEN THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SUNNY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1100 AM EDT...THE FORECAST AREA IS STUCK IN A DAMP AND
CLOUDY AIR MASS WITH THE WARM FRONT STILL SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
REGION. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE 50S OVER THE NRN CATSKILLS ANS SCHOHARIE CTY. ANOTHER
BATCH OF SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING ACROSS
CNTRL NY AND INTO THE WRN DACKS. WE REDUCED THE POPS FOR A FEW
HOURS EXCEPT OVER THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE FCST AREA. WE HAVE
FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THE LATEST 3KM-HRRR REF TRENDS.
THE 12Z KALY SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL PRE WARM
FRONTAL MARINE-LIKE INVERSION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER /H925-H850/.
THIS LID WILL LIKELY ERODE WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THEN THE COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD WRN NY
WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW. TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE IN THE LOWER TO M30S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN VT AND THE NE BERKS. MOST LOCATIONS ARE IN
THE U30S TO M40S...ASIDE FOR THE SUNNY BREAKS. AS 925-850 HPA
WINDS VEER INTO THE SOUTHWEST...AND SOME DOWNSLOPING FROM THE
CATSKILLS CONTRIBUTES TO SOME WARMING/DRYING. THIS CAN BE SEEN IN
THE MESONET OBS.
EVENTUALLY...SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECEDE
AND ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT INSTABILITY SHOULD
REMAIN RATHER WEAK...AND ALSO THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
PASS MAINLY TO OUR N AND W. HIGHER RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT REMAINS
GENERALLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. WILL INDICATE MAINLY HIGH CHC
POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
MAX TEMPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED INTO THE 50S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT FOR SOME U40S OVER THE SRN DACKS. ALSO SOME
LOWER 60S WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN-ERN CATSKILLS...AND THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY...IF THE DOWNSLOPING AND SUNNY BREAK CONTINUE TO
OCCUR.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING
INTO THE EARLY PM AT 15-25 MPH...ESP ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE TACONICS/GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT
PASSES...EVEN STRONGER WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE SOME GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH COULD OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...EVENING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR AREAS NEAR AND
E OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. SKIES SHOULD THEN BECOME CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY...BEFORE CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INCREASE
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES. SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR LESS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S.
SATURDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
CLOUDS...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN/SNOW...MAINLY
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN VT. SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH PASSES. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER
STRONG THROUGH SATURDAY AS DEEP MIXING OCCURS. EXPECT WIND GUSTS
TO REACH 35-45 MPH IN MANY AREAS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...STRONGEST IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT MAY ONLY REACH THE 30S.
SAT NT-SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SAT NT...AND SUNNY
SKIES ON SUNDAY. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS WILL BE RATHER
COOL...GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. SUN AFTERNOON MAXES
SHOULD BE QUITE MILD WITH LIGHT WINDS...WITH LOWER/MID 60S IN
VALLEYS AND MAINLY 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WE BEGIN THIS LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST UNDER TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
MEANWHILE...RATHER STRONG AND FAST MOVING PACIFIC ENERGY COMES
ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EJECTS OUT ONTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE...THE RETURN FLOW
COMBINING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC ENERGY WILL ALLOW DEEPER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF TO BECOME ENTRAINED ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE IMPACT FOR OUR
REGION WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVING MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
QPF FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW TRENDS OF A BIT HIGHER
AMOUNTS.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY. HOWEVER..CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY KEEP CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE COOL WITH MAINLY 50S AND LOWER 60S EXPECTED.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SURFACE TO
ALOFT WILL NOT ONLY KEEP OUR WEATHER TRANQUIL...BUT WITH THERMAL
PROFILES MODERATING AND MID APRIL SUNSHINE IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE
SPRING THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. AVERAGE HIGHS CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND PERHAPS NEAR 70F WITH FAVORABLE
DOWNSLOPING WITHIN THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE 30S ACROSS THE TERRAIN TO 40S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE CONTINUE TO OBSERVE MAINLY MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ACROSS THE
REGION WITH RESPECT TO CIGS...EXCEPT FOR KPSF WHERE SOME IFR CIGS
WILL LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. EXPECT AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF
WEATHER FOR THE REGION WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS.
REGION RADAR SHOWS ANOTHER BATCH OF CONVECTION TO MOVE ACROSS THE
TAF SITES THIS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THEN...PER THE HRRR AND 4KM SPC
WRF REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS...SEEMS THERE WILL BE A REDUCTION IN
PRECIP COVERAGE AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. LATER IN THE
DAY...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH A CHC-SCT CONVECTION ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. FOR NOW...WE WILL PLACE A TEMPO GROUP AND MONITOR TRENDS.
FRIDAY EVENING WITH FROPA...WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT FROM THE
WESTERLY DIRECTION WITH FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE INTO KPSF WHERE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER MVFR CIGS A BIT LONGER.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TODAY DUE TO
EXPECTED WET AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AND MAINLY COOL WEATHER.
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...BRINGING RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A MILDER AIR MASS
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH MORE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY DRY AND BRISK CONDITIONS
OPEN THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. SUNNY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR
SUNDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BEFORE
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PERIODS OF RAIN...ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...WILL
OCCUR WITH THESE FEATURES TODAY.
RAINFALL AMTS OVERNIGHT GENERALLY RANGED FROM ONE QUARTER TO ONE
HALF INCH. ANOTHER ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY. THE LATEST MMEFS /ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE/
INDICATES RIVER LEVELS WILL RISE BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...WITH
SEVERAL POINTS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING ACTION STAGE. THE ONLY
POINT THAT MAY REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE IS GILBOA. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER RISES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN BANK RISES ARE POSSIBLE.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW
PASSING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE PRODUCING QPF OF
LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...FRUGIS/BGM/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...KL/BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
802 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...BRINGING RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A MILDER AIR MASS
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH MORE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY DRY AND BRISK CONDITIONS
OPEN THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. SUNNY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...SEVERAL AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN...ALONG WITH A FEW EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...CONTINUE TO
TRANSLATE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE MOST
CONCENTRATED AREA OF RAINFALL EXTENDING FROM THE SE CATSKILLS
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO NW CT.
LATEST MESONET OBS SUGGEST SLIGHT WARMING OF THE PREVIOUS
SUBFREEZING LAYER ABOVE 1200 FT...WITH ONLY A FEW SITES REMAINING
NEAR FREEZING. HAVE THEREFORE DROPPED THE FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY...AND INSTEAD REPLACED WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
FOR ISOLATED LINGERING POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN AT ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 1500 FT ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN MA.
ELSEWHERE...PERIODS OF RAIN...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER...SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 8 AM AND 11 AM FROM W TO E ACROSS THE REGION...AS
THE INITIAL LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS NORTHWARD...AND THE BETTER UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LIFT CLOSER TO THE SFC COLD FRONT REMAIN TO THE
WEST. SO A SLIGHT LULL IN PRECIP IS QUITE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. DURING THIS LULL...SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND AREAS JUST S OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AS 925-850 HPA WINDS VEER INTO THE SOUTHWEST...AND SOME
DOWNSLOPING FROM THE CATSKILLS CONTRIBUTES TO SOME WARMING/DRYING.
ELSEWHERE...THE COLD STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY PERSIST
LONGER...PERHAPS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER HUDSON VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND ALSO SE VT.
EVENTUALLY...SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECEDE
AND ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT INSTABILITY SHOULD
REMAIN RATHER WEAK...AND ALSO THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
PASS MAINLY TO OUR N AND W. HIGHER RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT REMAINS
GENERALLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. WILL INDICATE MAINLY HIGH CHC
POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
TEMPS WILL BE VERY TRICKY TODAY GIVEN THE INITIAL COLD AND STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST AGEOSTROPHIC
WINDS. HOWEVER...TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY RISE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH 50S TO LOWER 60S EXPECTED IN VALLEY AREAS FROM
ALBANY SOUTH...AND MAINLY 40S AND 50S TO THE NORTH AND ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE WARMEST AREAS MAY ULTIMATELY BE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CATSKILLS/SCHOHARIE VALLEY...ESP SHOULD ANY BREAKS
OF SUN DEVELOP. MAX TEMPS MAY REACH 60-65 OR WARMER IN THESE
AREAS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING
AT 15-25 MPH...ESP ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE TACONICS/GREENS
AND BERKSHIRES. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT PASSES...EVEN STRONGER WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE
SOME GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH COULD OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...EVENING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR AREAS NEAR AND
E OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. SKIES SHOULD THEN BECOME CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY...BEFORE CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INCREASE
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES. SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR LESS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S.
SATURDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
CLOUDS...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN/SNOW...MAINLY
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN VT. SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH PASSES. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER
STRONG THROUGH SATURDAY AS DEEP MIXING OCCURS. EXPECT WIND GUSTS
TO REACH 35-45 MPH IN MANY AREAS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...STRONGEST IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT MAY ONLY REACH THE 30S.
SAT NT-SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SAT NT...AND SUNNY
SKIES ON SUNDAY. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS WILL BE RATHER
COOL...GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. SUN AFTERNOON MAXES
SHOULD BE QUITE MILD WITH LIGHT WINDS...WITH LOWER/MID 60S IN
VALLEYS AND MAINLY 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WE BEGIN THIS LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST UNDER TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
MEANWHILE...RATHER STRONG AND FAST MOVING PACIFIC ENERGY COMES
ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EJECTS OUT ONTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE...THE RETURN FLOW
COMBINING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC ENERGY WILL ALLOW DEEPER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF TO BECOME ENTRAINED ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE IMPACT FOR OUR
REGION WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVING MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
QPF FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW TRENDS OF A BIT HIGHER
AMOUNTS.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY. HOWEVER..CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY KEEP CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE COOL WITH MAINLY 50S AND LOWER 60S EXPECTED.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SURFACE TO
ALOFT WILL NOT ONLY KEEP OUR WEATHER TRANQUIL...BUT WITH THERMAL
PROFILES MODERATING AND MID APRIL SUNSHINE IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE
SPRING THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. AVERAGE HIGHS CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND PERHAPS NEAR 70F WITH FAVORABLE
DOWNSLOPING WITHIN THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE 30S ACROSS THE TERRAIN TO 40S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE CONTINUE TO OBSERVE MAINLY MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ACROSS THE
REGION WITH RESPECT TO CIGS...EXCEPT FOR KPSF WHERE SOME IFR CIGS
WILL LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. EXPECT AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF
WEATHER FOR THE REGION WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS.
REGION RADAR SHOWS ANOTHER BATCH OF CONVECTION TO MOVE ACROSS THE
TAF SITES THIS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THEN...PER THE HRRR AND 4KM SPC
WRF REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS...SEEMS THERE WILL BE A REDUCTION IN
PRECIP COVERAGE AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. LATER IN THE
DAY...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH A CHC-SCT CONVECTION ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. FOR NOW...WE WILL PLACE A TEMPO GROUP AND MONITOR TRENDS.
FRIDAY EVENING WITH FROPA...WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT FROM THE
WESTERLY DIRECTION WITH FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE INTO KPSF WHERE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER MVFR CIGS A BIT LONGER.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TODAY DUE TO
EXPECTED WET AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AND MAINLY COOL WEATHER.
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...BRINGING RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A MILDER AIR MASS
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH MORE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY DRY AND BRISK CONDITIONS
OPEN THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. SUNNY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR
SUNDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BEFORE
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PERIODS OF RAIN...ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...WILL
OCCUR WITH THESE FEATURES TODAY.
RAINFALL AMTS OVERNIGHT GENERALLY RANGED FROM ONE QUARTER TO ONE
HALF INCH. ANOTHER ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY. THE LATEST MMEFS /ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE/
INDICATES RIVER LEVELS WILL RISE BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...WITH
SEVERAL POINTS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING ACTION STAGE. THE ONLY
POINT THAT MAY REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE IS GILBOA. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER RISES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN BANK RISES ARE POSSIBLE.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW
PASSING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE PRODUCING QPF OF
LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...FRUGIS/BGM/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...KL/BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
658 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING
MILDER TEMPS...BUT ONE LAST ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
DRY AND MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
7 AM UPDATE...SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THIS MORNING SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MID-MORNING. THE FORECAST IS
ON TRACK WITH THIS AND NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
AREA OF RAIN ASSOCD WITH 850 MB WARM FRONT AND NOSE OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS SNE EARLY THIS MORNING. HRRR HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE RAIN AND MOVES IT OUT 10-14Z AS AREA OF MID LEVEL
DRYING MOVES IN. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY
WEATHER MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS MOVE IN LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING ASSOCD WITH THE COLD
FRONT WHICH MOVES INTO W NEW ENG BY EARLY EVENING. MODELS INDICATE
MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WHERE
LOW RISK FOR ISOLD TSTMS. IN FACT...SOME OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
GIVEN PWATS INCREASING TO 1.5" AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH IS +3 SD
ABOVE CLIMO.
SFC WARM FRONT STILL BACK ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND WILL PROBABLY TAKE
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON BEFORE IT MOVES THROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN
AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG PERSISTING TODAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL
THIS MORNING...BUT WILL SHOOT UP INTO THE 50S DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT LIFTS TO THE N.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS WILL SHIFT TO THE S COAST AND
CAPE/ISLANDS THIS EVENING WHERE LOW RISK FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.
OTHERWISE EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH WIND SHIFT TO WEST.
SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER OH VALLEY WITH DRY W/NW FLOW INTO NEW ENG.
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND COLD POOL MOVES INTO SNE WHICH WILL ACT ON
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEADING TO SCT-BKN CU DEVELOPING...BUT DRY
CONDITIONS. SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S...BUT
GUSTY WEST WINDS EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* PLEASANT WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPS THRU MIDWEEK
* CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS SOMETIME MONDAY OR TUESDAY
THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE TIMING OF A
COLD FRONT MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE
GFS WITH THE FRONT...BRINGING IT THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH ABOUT 12 HOURS LATER. THIS AFFECTS
THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
POTENTIALLY AVAILABLE FOR THUNDER.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRINGING DRY
WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC BRINGING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS STATED ABOVE...THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING
A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO
THE 60S TO NEAR 70.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING DRY...SEASONABLE WEATHER TO
THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR IN STRATUS AND
PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...POSSIBLY IMPROVING
TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AWAY FROM THE S COAST. RAIN EARLY THIS
MORNING MOVES OUT BY MID MORNING FOLLOWED BY A LULL IN PRECIP.
SHOWERS REDEVELOP 18-21Z WEST AND 21-00Z EAST. LOW RISK OF
ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS...MAINLY NEAR S COAST
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. LLWS DEVELOPING AFT 21Z CAPE/ISLANDS AS
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS.
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
MVFR/IFR IN THE EVENING...IMPROVING TO VFR 03-07Z AS WINDS SHIFT
TO W. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLD TSTM EXITS THE S COAST IN THE
EVENING.
SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. W WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT
DEVELOPING.
KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TONIGHT BUT
TIMING UNCERTAIN.
KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TONIGHT BUT
TIMING UNCERTAIN.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT -SHRA SOMETIME LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...INCREASING SW WINDS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. A FEW G25 KT
POSSIBLE BUT STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL PREVENT STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT FROM MIXING DOWN. AREAS OF FOG WILL REDUCE VSBYS.
RAIN ENDS BY MID MORNING...THEN SHOWERS REDEVELOP TOWARD EVENING.
TONIGHT...FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE EVENING WITH SW WINDS BECOMING
W. SPEEDS MOSTLY BELOW SCA BUT A FEW G25 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
EVENING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND AN ISOLD TSTM EXIT
AFTER FROPA. VSBY IMPROVES WITH THE WIND SHIFT.
SATURDAY...W/NW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT...ESPECIALLY NE MA COASTAL
WATERS. SCA WILL BE NEED TO BE EXTENDED.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEAS AND WINDS
DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. WESTERLY WINDS
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND
SEAS INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS. THEN
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND DIMINISH...ALONG WITH SEAS...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NECESSARY FOR A PERIOD.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-251-
254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...BRINGING RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A MILDER AIR MASS
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH MORE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY DRY AND BRISK CONDITIONS
OPEN THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. SUNNY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...SEVERAL AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN...ALONG WITH A FEW EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...CONTINUE TO
TRANSLATE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE MOST
CONCENTRATED AREA OF RAINFALL EXTENDING FROM THE SE CATSKILLS
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO NW CT.
LATEST MESONET OBS SUGGEST SLIGHT WARMING OF THE PREVIOUS
SUBFREEZING LAYER ABOVE 1200 FT...WITH ONLY A FEW SITES REMAINING
NEAR FREEZING. HAVE THEREFORE DROPPED THE FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY...AND INSTEAD REPLACED WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
FOR ISOLATED LINGERING POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN AT ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 1500 FT ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN MA.
ELSEWHERE...PERIODS OF RAIN...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER...SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 8 AM AND 11 AM FROM W TO E ACROSS THE REGION...AS
THE INITIAL LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS NORTHWARD...AND THE BETTER UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LIFT CLOSER TO THE SFC COLD FRONT REMAIN TO THE
WEST. SO A SLIGHT LULL IN PRECIP IS QUITE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. DURING THIS LULL...SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND AREAS JUST S OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AS 925-850 HPA WINDS VEER INTO THE SOUTHWEST...AND SOME
DOWNSLOPING FROM THE CATSKILLS CONTRIBUTES TO SOME WARMING/DRYING.
ELSEWHERE...THE COLD STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY PERSIST
LONGER...PERHAPS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER HUDSON VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND ALSO SE VT.
EVENTUALLY...SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECEDE
AND ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT INSTABILITY SHOULD
REMAIN RATHER WEAK...AND ALSO THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
PASS MAINLY TO OUR N AND W. HIGHER RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT REMAINS
GENERALLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. WILL INDICATE MAINLY HIGH CHC
POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
TEMPS WILL BE VERY TRICKY TODAY GIVEN THE INITIAL COLD AND STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST AGEOSTROPHIC
WINDS. HOWEVER...TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY RISE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH 50S TO LOWER 60S EXPECTED IN VALLEY AREAS FROM
ALBANY SOUTH...AND MAINLY 40S AND 50S TO THE NORTH AND ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE WARMEST AREAS MAY ULTIMATELY BE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CATSKILLS/SCHOHARIE VALLEY...ESP SHOULD ANY BREAKS
OF SUN DEVELOP. MAX TEMPS MAY REACH 60-65 OR WARMER IN THESE
AREAS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING
AT 15-25 MPH...ESP ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE TACONICS/GREENS
AND BERKSHIRES. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT PASSES...EVEN STRONGER WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE
SOME GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH COULD OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...EVENING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR AREAS NEAR AND
E OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. SKIES SHOULD THEN BECOME CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY...BEFORE CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INCREASE
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES. SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR LESS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S.
SATURDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
CLOUDS...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN/SNOW...MAINLY
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN VT. SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH PASSES. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER
STRONG THROUGH SATURDAY AS DEEP MIXING OCCURS. EXPECT WIND GUSTS
TO REACH 35-45 MPH IN MANY AREAS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...STRONGEST IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT MAY ONLY REACH THE 30S.
SAT NT-SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SAT NT...AND SUNNY
SKIES ON SUNDAY. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS WILL BE RATHER
COOL...GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. SUN AFTERNOON MAXES
SHOULD BE QUITE MILD WITH LIGHT WINDS...WITH LOWER/MID 60S IN
VALLEYS AND MAINLY 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WE BEGIN THIS LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST UNDER TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
MEANWHILE...RATHER STRONG AND FAST MOVING PACIFIC ENERGY COMES
ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EJECTS OUT ONTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE...THE RETURN FLOW
COMBINING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC ENERGY WILL ALLOW DEEPER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF TO BECOME ENTRAINED ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE IMPACT FOR OUR
REGION WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVING MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
QPF FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW TRENDS OF A BIT HIGHER
AMOUNTS.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY. HOWEVER..CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY KEEP CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE COOL WITH MAINLY 50S AND LOWER 60S EXPECTED.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SURFACE TO
ALOFT WILL NOT ONLY KEEP OUR WEATHER TRANQUIL...BUT WITH THERMAL
PROFILES MODERATING AND MID APRIL SUNSHINE IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE
SPRING THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. AVERAGE HIGHS CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND PERHAPS NEAR 70F WITH FAVORABLE
DOWNSLOPING WITHIN THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE 30S ACROSS THE TERRAIN TO 40S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COMBINATION OF MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT AS WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD WITH OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT
DISCUSSION...LLWS WILL BECOME AN ISSUE AS EVIDENT IN THE LATEST
VWP FROM THE RADAR AND HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION IN THE LATEST
FORECASTS OVERNIGHT.
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY...PER THE HRRR AND 4KM SPC WRF
REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS...SEEMS THERE WILL BE A REDUCTION IN PRECIP
COVERAGE AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. LATER IN THE DAY...COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH A CHC-SCT CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
FOR NOW...WE WILL PLACE A PROB30 AND MONITOR TRENDS. FLIGHT
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO AT LEAST MVFR THROUGH THE DAY.
FRIDAY EVENING WITH FROPA...WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT FROM THE
WESTERLY DIRECTION WITH FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE INTO KPSF WHERE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER MVFR CIGS A BIT LONGER.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TODAY DUE TO
EXPECTED WET AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AND MAINLY COOL WEATHER.
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...BRINGING RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A MILDER AIR MASS
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH MORE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY DRY AND BRISK CONDITIONS
OPEN THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. SUNNY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR
SUNDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BEFORE
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PERIODS OF RAIN...ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...WILL
OCCUR WITH THESE FEATURES TODAY.
RAINFALL AMTS OVERNIGHT GENERALLY RANGED FROM ONE QUARTER TO ONE
HALF INCH. ANOTHER ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY. THE LATEST MMEFS /ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE/
INDICATES RIVER LEVELS WILL RISE BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...WITH
SEVERAL POINTS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING ACTION STAGE. THE ONLY
POINT THAT MAY REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE IS GILBOA. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER RISES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN BANK RISES ARE POSSIBLE.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW
PASSING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE PRODUCING QPF OF
LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...FRUGIS/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...KL/BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
503 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...BRINGING RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A MILDER AIR MASS
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH MORE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY DRY AND BRISK CONDITIONS
OPEN THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. SUNNY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT TODAY FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1200 FT IN SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN MA...
AS OF 455 AM EDT...SEVERAL AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...ALONG
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF
RAINFALL EXTENDING FROM THE SE CATSKILLS ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY INTO NW CT AND WESTERN MA.
MEANWHILE...RECENT MESONET OBS...AND ALSO INFORMATION FROM THE
00Z/10 KALY SOUNDING INDICATE A PERSISTENT SUBFREEZING LAYER
GENERALLY ABOVE 1200 FT ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN MA. THIS
WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO...EASTERN BENNINGTON CO...AND
WEST CENTRAL WINDHAM COS...MAINLY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1200
FT...THROUGH 6 AM THIS MORNING. IN THESE AREAS...SOME ICE
ACCRETION OF UP TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ELSEWHERE...PERIODS OF RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
DAYBREAK...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.
THE OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE BETWEEN ROUGHLY
8 AM AND 11 AM FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE REGION...AS THE INITIAL
LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS NORTHWARD...AND THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS AND LIFT CLOSER TO THE SFC COLD FRONT REMAIN TO THE WEST.
SO A SLIGHT LULL IN PRECIP IS QUITE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. DURING THIS LULL...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
COULD DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND AREAS JUST S OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AS 925-850 HPA WINDS VEER INTO THE SOUTHWEST...AND SOME
DOWNSLOPING FROM THE CATSKILLS CONTRIBUTES TO SOME WARMING/DRYING.
ELSEWHERE...THE COLD STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY PERSIST
LONGER...PERHAPS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER HUDSON VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND ALSO SE VT.
EVENTUALLY...SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECEDE
AND ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT INSTABILITY SHOULD
REMAIN RATHER WEAK...AND ALSO THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
PASS MAINLY TO OUR N AND W. HIGHER RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT REMAINS
GENERALLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. WILL INDICATE MAINLY HIGH CHC
POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
TEMPS WILL BE VERY TRICKY TODAY GIVEN THE INITIAL COLD AND STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST AGEOSTROPHIC
WINDS. HOWEVER...TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY RISE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH 50S TO LOWER 60S EXPECTED IN VALLEY AREAS FROM
ALBANY SOUTH...AND MAINLY 40S AND 50S TO THE NORTH AND ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE WARMEST AREAS MAY ULTIMATELY BE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CATSKILLS/SCHOHARIE VALLEY...ESP SHOULD ANY BREAKS
OF SUN DEVELOP. MAX TEMPS MAY REACH 60-65 OR WARMER IN THESE
AREAS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING
AT 15-25 MPH...ESP ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE TACONICS/GREENS
AND BERKSHIRES. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT PASSES...EVEN STRONGER WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE
SOME GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH COULD OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...EVENING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR AREAS NEAR AND
E OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. SKIES SHOULD THEN BECOME CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY...BEFORE CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INCREASE
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES. SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR LESS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S.
SATURDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
CLOUDS...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN/SNOW...MAINLY
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN VT. SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH PASSES. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER
STRONG THROUGH SATURDAY AS DEEP MIXING OCCURS. EXPECT WIND GUSTS
TO REACH 35-45 MPH IN MANY AREAS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...STRONGEST IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT MAY ONLY REACH THE 30S.
SAT NT-SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SAT NT...AND SUNNY
SKIES ON SUNDAY. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS WILL BE RATHER
COOL...GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. SUN AFTERNOON MAXES
SHOULD BE QUITE MILD WITH LIGHT WINDS...WITH LOWER/MID 60S IN
VALLEYS AND MAINLY 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WE BEGIN THIS LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST UNDER TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
MEANWHILE...RATHER STRONG AND FAST MOVING PACIFIC ENERGY COMES
ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EJECTS OUT ONTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE...THE RETURN FLOW
COMBINING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC ENERGY WILL ALLOW DEEPER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF TO BECOME ENTRAINED ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE IMPACT FOR OUR
REGION WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVING MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
QPF FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW TRENDS OF A BIT HIGHER
AMOUNTS.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY. HOWEVER..CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY KEEP CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE COOL WITH MAINLY 50S AND LOWER 60S EXPECTED.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SURFACE TO
ALOFT WILL NOT ONLY KEEP OUR WEATHER TRANQUIL...BUT WITH THERMAL
PROFILES MODERATING AND MID APRIL SUNSHINE IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE
SPRING THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. AVERAGE HIGHS CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND PERHAPS NEAR 70F WITH FAVORABLE
DOWNSLOPING WITHIN THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE 30S ACROSS THE TERRAIN TO 40S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COMBINATION OF MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT AS WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD WITH OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT
DISCUSSION...LLWS WILL BECOME AN ISSUE AS EVIDENT IN THE LATEST
VWP FROM THE RADAR AND HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION IN THE LATEST
FORECASTS OVERNIGHT.
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY...PER THE HRRR AND 4KM SPC WRF
REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS...SEEMS THERE WILL BE A REDUCTION IN PRECIP
COVERAGE AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. LATER IN THE DAY...COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH A CHC-SCT CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
FOR NOW...WE WILL PLACE A PROB30 AND MONITOR TRENDS. FLIGHT
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO AT LEAST MVFR THROUGH THE DAY.
FRIDAY EVENING WITH FROPA...WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT FROM THE
WESTERLY DIRECTION WITH FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE INTO KPSF WHERE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER MVFR CIGS A BIT LONGER.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TODAY DUE TO
EXPECTED WET AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AND MAINLY COOL WEATHER.
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...BRINGING RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A MILDER AIR MASS
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH MORE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY DRY AND BRISK CONDITIONS
OPEN THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. SUNNY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR
SUNDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BEFORE
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PERIODS OF RAIN...ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...WILL
OCCUR WITH THESE FEATURES TODAY.
RAINFALL AMTS OVERNIGHT GENERALLY RANGED FROM ONE QUARTER TO ONE
HALF INCH. ANOTHER ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY. THE LATEST MMEFS /ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE/
INDICATES RIVER LEVELS WILL RISE BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...WITH
SEVERAL POINTS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING ACTION STAGE. THE ONLY
POINT THAT MAY REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE IS GILBOA. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER RISES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN BANK RISES ARE POSSIBLE.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW
PASSING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE PRODUCING QPF OF
LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MAZ001-025.
VT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...FRUGIS/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...KL/BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
323 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING
MILDER TEMPS...BUT ONE LAST ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
DRY AND MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AREA OF RAIN ASSOCD WITH 850 MB WARM FRONT AND NOSE OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS SNE EARLY THIS MORNING. HRRR HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE RAIN AND MOVES IT OUT 10-14Z AS AREA OF MID LEVEL
DRYING MOVES IN. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY
WEATHER MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS MOVE IN LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING ASSOCD WITH THE COLD
FRONT WHICH MOVES INTO W NEW ENG BY EARLY EVENING. MODELS INDICATE
MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WHERE
LOW RISK FOR ISOLD TSTMS. IN FACT...SOME OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
GIVEN PWATS INCREASING TO 1.5" AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH IS +3 SD
ABOVE CLIMO.
SFC WARM FRONT STILL BACK ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND WILL PROBABLY TAKE
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON BEFORE IT MOVES THROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN
AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG PERSISTING TODAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL
THIS MORNING...BUT WILL SHOOT UP INTO THE 50S DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT LIFTS TO THE N.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS WILL SHIFT TO THE S COAST AND
CAPE/ISLANDS THIS EVENING WHERE LOW RISK FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.
OTHERWISE EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH WIND SHIFT TO WEST.
SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER OH VALLEY WITH DRY W/NW FLOW INTO NEW ENG.
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND COLD POOL MOVES INTO SNE WHICH WILL ACT ON
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEADING TO SCT-BKN CU DEVELOPING...BUT DRY
CONDITIONS. SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S...BUT
GUSTY WEST WINDS EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* PLEASANT WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPS THRU MIDWEEK
* CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS SOMETIME MONDAY OR TUESDAY
THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE TIMING OF A
COLD FRONT MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE
GFS WITH THE FRONT...BRINGING IT THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH ABOUT 12 HOURS LATER. THIS AFFECTS
THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
POTENTIALLY AVAILABLE FOR THUNDER.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRINGING DRY
WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC BRINGING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS STATED ABOVE...THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING
A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO
THE 60S TO NEAR 70.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING DRY...SEASONABLE WEATHER TO
THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THROUGH TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR IN
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AWAY FROM THE S
COAST. RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING MOVES OUT BY DAYBREAK FOLLOWED BY
A LULL IN PRECIP. SHOWERS REDEVELOP 18-21Z WEST AND 21-00Z EAST.
LOW RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS...MAINLY
NEAR S COAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. LLWS DEVELOPING AFT 21Z
CAPE/ISLANDS AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS.
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
MVFR/IFR IN THE EVENING...IMPROVING TO VFR 03-07Z AS WINDS SHIFT
TO W. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLD TSTM EXITS THE S COAST IN THE
EVENING.
SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. W WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT
DEVELOPING.
KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TONIGHT BUT
TIMING UNCERTAIN.
KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TONIGHT BUT
TIMING UNCERTAIN.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT -SHRA SOMETIME LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...INCREASING SW WINDS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. A FEW G25 KT
POSSIBLE BUT STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL PREVENT STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT FROM MIXING DOWN. AREAS OF FOG WILL REDUCE VSBYS.
RAIN ENDS BY MID MORNING...THEN SHOWERS REDEVELOP TOWARD EVENING.
TONIGHT...FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE EVENING WITH SW WINDS BECOMING
W. SPEEDS MOSTLY BELOW SCA BUT A FEW G25 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
EVENING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND AN ISOLD TSTM EXIT
AFTER FROPA. VSBY IMPROVES WITH THE WIND SHIFT.
SATURDAY...W/NW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT...ESPECIALLY NE MA COASTAL
WATERS. SCA WILL BE NEED TO BE EXTENDED.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEAS AND WINDS
DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. WESTERLY WINDS
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND
SEAS INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS. THEN
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND DIMINISH...ALONG WITH SEAS...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NECESSARY FOR A PERIOD.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-251-
254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
151 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT
WITH A PERIOD OF RAINFALL. THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF MOST
OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW...AS A MILDER
AIR MASS BRIEFLY BUILDS IN. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY DRY AND BRISK CONDITIONS OPEN THE
WEEKEND WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1130 PM EDT...MESONET OBS AND KALY 00Z/10 SOUNDING CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A SUBFREEZING LAYER MAINLY ABOVE 1200 FT AGL ACROSS
THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT. STEADIER PRECIP IS QUICKLY
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WE EXPECT A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THESE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS EASTERN BERKSHIRE
CO...EASTERN BENNINGTON AND CENTRAL/WESTERN WINDHAM COS FOR
SEVERAL HOURS OVERNIGHT. SOME ICE ACCRETIONS MAY REACH INTO THE
0.10-0.25 RANGE IN THESE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BEFORE TEMPS WARM TO
ABOVE FREEZING CLOSER TO DAYBREAK.
THEREFORE...A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SPECIFICALLY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1200 FT IN THESE
AREAS.
OTHERWISE...WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING HAS NOW SHIFTED EASTWARD INTO
NEW ENGLAND...AS A SHORT-WAVE IN THE WATER VAPOR LOOP CONTINUES TO
APPROACH FROM THE MIDWEST AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE
SFC...A WARM FRONT NOW EXTENDED INTO WESTERN PA....AND IS
CONTINUING TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST-NORTHEAST.
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A BATCH OF STEADY LIGHT RAIN MOVING FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO THE INITIAL PUSH OF WARM
ADVECTION. THIS RAIN IS JUST NOW REACHING THE HUDSON VALLEY...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. OUTSIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ADVISORY AREAS...TEMPS ARE
HOLDING STEADY IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. THESE LOOK TO BE THE LOW
TEMPS FOR THE NIGHT...AS TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
THE BETTER QG LIFT OR SYNOPTIC FORCING LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. BY LATE TONIGHT...A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER MAY
OCCUR OVER W-CNTRL NY AND MAY GET CLOSE TO THE WRN PERIPHERY OF
THE FCST AREA. THE NAM ACTUALLY BRINGS SHOWALTER VALUES DOWN TO 0
TO -2C BY 12Z. THE GFS IS MORE STABLE WITH THE LOWER SHOWALTER
STABILITY INDICIES WEST OF THE FCST AREA. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE IN THE TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH TO HALF AN INCH RANGE WITH
THE HIGHER TALLIES OVER THE SRN DACKS REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE WARM FRONT MAKES STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS THE FCST
AREA...WITH A MILDER AIR MASS BUILDING IN. SOME RAINFALL WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING THROUGH THE MORNING...AS THE S TO SW H850 LLJ OF
40-55 KTS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TURNS NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER SE ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WITH THE SFC CYCLONE MOVING TOWARDS SW QUEBEC.
CLOUDS WILL BE PREVALENT TOMORROW...BUT THE LOW AND MID LEVEL
WARMING WILL BE SIGNIFICANT WITH H850 TEMPS RISING INTO +9C TO
+12C RANGE. SFC DEWPTS WILL RISE INTO THE U30S TO 40S ACROSS THE
REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD
POTENTIAL TEMP GRADIENT WITH THE BOUNDARY...BUT THE ONE LACKING
INGREDIENT FOR ROBUST CONVECTION IS INSTABILITY. THE SHOWALTER
VALUES ARE CLOSE TO 0C. SPC DOES HAVE THE ENTIRE AREA IN GENERAL
THUNDER. WE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FCST
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING DUE TO THE
THERMAL GRADIENT AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT. POPS
WERE ALSO KEPT IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS ARE TRICKY BASED ON THE CLOUDS AND WE WENT CLOSE TO A BLEND
OF THE GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE VALUES. THE GFSMOS VALUES WERE WARMER
THAN THE COOLER METMOS NUMBERS. HIGHS IN THE WARM SECTOR COULD
REACH THE U50S TO L60S SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND
MAINLY MID AND U50S TO THE NORTH AND EAST WITH A FEW U40S TO L50S
IN THE SRN DACKS AREA.
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE FCST AREA EARLY IN
THE EVENING WITH FAIRLY STRONG COLD ADVECTION SETTLING IN. THE
GFS HAS H850 TEMPS FALLING BACK TO -4C TO -6C FROM THE TRI CITIES
NORTH AND WEST...AND -1C TO -4C SOUTH AND EAST. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY MAKE THE SKIES PARTLY
CLOUDY. A FEW UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE SRN DACKS
REGION...AND SRN VT EARLY ON...AND THEY WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW
SHOWERS WITH THE COLD ADVECTION KICKING IN. LOWS RANGE FROM THE
U20S TO M30S OVER THE ADIRONDACK PARK AND SRN GREENS...AND U30S TO
M40S SOUTH AND EAST WITH BRISK CONDITIONS.
SATURDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IMPACTS THE FCST AREA WITH PIECES
OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH. A SFC TROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY
WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS MAY OFFSET
THE COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S IN THE
VALLEYS...POSSIBLY A FEW L60S IN THE MID HID HUDSON VALLEY...AND
40S OVER THE MTNS. THE H850 WINDS WILL BE IN THE 30-40 KTS...AND
AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED SOME OF THE BUFKIT MOMENTUM
TRANSFER PROFILES HINT AT GOOD MIXING WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 35
KTS OR SO. EXPECT W TO NW WINDS OF 10-25 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS IN
THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE.
SATURDAY NIGHT...A WEAKENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT,,,AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE OH VALLEY AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND COLD CONDITIONS
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO L30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIODS STARTS OUT ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO OUR
REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY...SUNNY AND RELATIVELY WARM
WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS TOO MAKING FOR A PLEASANT SPRING DAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.
THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVES ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...
AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH CROSS THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL
HAVE FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY...SO WILL ONLY MENTION SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR NOW. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 60S WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AND SOME SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA...OTHERWISE DRYING CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY...PROVIDING
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND BREEZE NORTHWEST WINDS. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD BACK IN ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND
POSSIBLY LASTING INTO THURSDAY BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE. WILL
TAKE OUT ANY MENTION OF POPS DURING THIS TIME WITH DRY CONDITIONS
NOW EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COMBINATION OF MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT AS WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD WITH OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT
DISCUSSION...LLWS WILL BECOME AN ISSUE AS EVIDENT IN THE LATEST
VWP FROM THE RADAR AND HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION IN THE LATEST
FORECASTS OVERNIGHT.
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY...PER THE HRRR AND 4KM SPC WRF
REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS...SEEMS THERE WILL BE A REDUCTION IN PRECIP
COVERAGE AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. LATER IN THE DAY...COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH A CHC-SCT CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
FOR NOW...WE WILL PLACE A PROB30 AND MONITOR TRENDS. FLIGHT
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO AT LEAST MVFR THROUGH THE DAY.
FRIDAY EVENING WITH FROPA...WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT FROM THE
WESTERLY DIRECTION WITH FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE INTO KPSF WHERE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER MVFR CIGS A BIT LONGER.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 30.0 NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK
DUE TO EXPECTED WET AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AND MAINLY COOL
WEATHER.
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT
WITH A PERIOD OF RAINFALL. THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF MOST
OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW...AS A MILDER
AIR MASS BRIEFLY BUILDS IN. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY DRY AND BRISK CONDITIONS OPEN THE
WEEKEND WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK NORTH TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...RESULTING IN A WARMUP WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN
AND EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.
SNOW MELT IS LIKELY WITH THE QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH RAINFALL
TONIGHT. ANOTHER TENTH TO QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE LATEST MMEFS /ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE/ INDICATES RIVER LEVELS WILL RISE BY EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND...WITH SEVERAL POINTS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING ACTION STAGE.
THE ONLY POINT THAT MAY REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE IS GILBOA. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER RISES OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO. WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT
SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ARE POSSIBLE.
TOTAL QPF TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE THIRD OF AN INCH
TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH RANGE WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER
THE SRN DACKS REGION.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON SATURDAY. THE DRY WEATHER MAY
EXTEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FLOWS TO RECEDE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MAZ001-025.
VT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...FRUGIS/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
103 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL STRENGTHEN
WHILE IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA LATER TODAY. ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTS WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN SATURDAY AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
12:30 PM UPDATE: THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO BE HALTED BY THE
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WITH A VERY STRONG INVERSION IN
PLACE. THIS HAS KEPT IN LOW CLOUDS, FOG AND DRIZZLE FOR MOST OF
US. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA, THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS
RESULTED IN SOME WARMING OF TEMPERATURES BUT CLOUDS REMAIN THICK.
ANY DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF A BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL PA
IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY COMPARED TO EARLIER TODAY.
TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD QUITE A BIT AS ALL
STAT GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED QUITE A BIT. THE RAP WAS USED A
STARTING POINT WITH EDITS MADE DOWNWARD ON TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. IT IS STILL NOT OUT OF QUESTION FOR A
BRIEF WINDOW OF MIXING AND A QUICK TEMPERATURE SPIKE WARMER THAN
FORECASTED BUT OUR WINDOW IS CLOSING. TOOK OUT ANY CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION TILL 20Z AND BACKED OFF ANY SHOWER CHANCES TILL MID-
AFTERNOON GIVEN THE LOOK OF CURRENT RADAR. A SMALL WINDOW FOR
THUNDER STILL EXISTS LATER TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THRU THE AREA THIS EVENING.
CONSENSUS OF THE CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING HIRES GUIDANCE HAS THE ONGOING
CONVECTION WITH THIS FRONT MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN NJ AND DE COAST
WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO OF 00Z, SO SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
A SHARP WIND SHIFT FROM SLY TO NWLY WILL OCCUR WITH THE FROPA.
EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR OUT AS WELL DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING.
THE INITIAL SURGE OF CAA IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT. LEANED ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS IN THIS
SETUP. MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM NEAR 40F IN THE POCONOS TO THE LOWER 50S
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT MONDAY. IT
APPEARS THE THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING SO NO
RESIDUAL POPS ARE NEEDED FOR THE REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY...BUT IT APPEARS THAT ONLY SOME EXTRA CLOUDINESS
N/W WILL BE THE ONLY RESULT OF THIS. IT WILL BE BREEZY ON SATURDAY
WITH A DECENT DRY NW WIND EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL WITH UPPER 50S N/W AND LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. THE FAIR
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES WARMER EACH DAY. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
N/W MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY WILL FEATURE SOME SHOWERY WEATHER AS A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE N/W MON NIGHT
AND S/W TUESDAY. THE FEATURE LOOKS RATHER PROGRESSIVE...SO ONLY
LIGHT QPF IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER TUE/WED
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT READINGS WILL STILL BE CLOSE TO OR A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOSTLY 60S ACROSS THE AREA.
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED WED...BUT THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
SHOWN APPROACHING THE AREA FOR THE LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z
EC/GFS MODELS SHOW A SLOWER TIMING WITH THIS FEATURE AND KEEPS MUCH
OF OUR AREA DRY. WE THEREFORE HAVE TONED DOWN THE WPC CHC POPS
BACK TO SLGT CHC TO KEEP THE WORDING OUT OF THE ZONES.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THU...AND MAYBE EVEN INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
18Z TAFS PREDICTING THE RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING, BUT
CONTINUED IFR CONDITIONS PRIOR.
THIS AFTERNOON...IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING AT NORTHWEST AND
KPHL AREA AIRPORTS. SOME MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT
SE AIRPORTS.
PCPN, A BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE FORMING AND MOVING
ACROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 19Z AND 23Z. A BY PRODUCT OF THE COOL
DAMP AIR REMAINING AT THE SFC IS THAT THUNDER CHANCES ARE REDUCED
AND ONLY CONFIDENT TO INCLUDE AT KACY AND KMIV WITH THIS PACKAGE.
WINDS, SOUTH WINDS SHOULD START WORKING THEIR WAY TO THE SURFACE.
SUSTAINED SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTINESS
POSSIBLE FROM KPHL AREA AIRPORTS EAST AND SOUTH.
THIS EVENING...CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR THIS EVENING AFTER THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. TIMING SHOULD BE AROUND 00Z. WINDS WILL BECOME
WEST AT SPEEDS AT AROUND 10 KNOTS.
OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWEST WIND
DIRECTION AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. IF THERE ARE CIGS NW TERMINALS THEY
SHOULD BE AT VFR LEVEL.
SATURDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS. POSSIBLE
VFR CU BASED CIGS AT NORTHWEST AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. NORTHWESTWINDS
WILL AVERAGE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH PEAK GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30
KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.
SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR BUT LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
IN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
BASED ON CAPE MAY LEWES FERRY REPORT WE EXTENDED THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY INTO LOWER DELAWARE BAY.
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FOR ALL OF
TODAY. WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS ADVECTNG IN FROM THE SOUTH AND A VERY
STRONG/SHALLOW INVERSION, THE FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL NOT BE ABLE
TO BE MIXED OUT. THE FOG MAY PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING UNTIL
AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THRU.
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE THREAT WILL MAINLY BE FROM HAZARDOUS SEAS WITH WAVES OF 4 TO 7
FT DURING THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR 25 KT
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BUT
WARM AIR ATOP THE COLD WATERS WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR DEEP
MIXING. SCT TSTMS EARLY THIS MRNG WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
THERE IS ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY
THIS EVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A VERY STABLE LAYER ABOVE THE SURFACE
WILL LIMIT THE WIND THREAT BUT STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL
AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING OUR SOUTHERN WATERS.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MON THRU TUE...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1241 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL STRENGTHEN
WHILE IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA LATER TODAY. ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTS WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN SATURDAY AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
12:30 PM UPDATE: THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO BE HALTED BY THE
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WITH A VERY STRONG INVERSION IN
PLACE. THIS HAS KEPT IN LOW CLOUDS, FOG AND DRIZZLE FOR MOST OF
US. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA, THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS
RESULTED IN SOME WARMING OF TEMPERATURES BUT CLOUDS REMAIN THICK.
ANY DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF A BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL PA
IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY COMPARED TO EARLIER TODAY.
TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD QUITE A BIT AS ALL
STAT GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED QUITE A BIT. THE RAP WAS USED A
STARTING POINT WITH EDITS MADE DOWNWARD ON TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. IT IS STILL NOT OUT OF QUESTION FOR A
BRIEF WINDOW OF MIXING AND A QUICK TEMPERATURE SPIKE WARMER THAN
FORECASTED BUT OUR WINDOW IS CLOSING. TOOK OUT ANY CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION TILL 20Z AND BACKED OFF ANY SHOWER CHANCES TILL MID-
AFTERNOON GIVEN THE LOOK OF CURRENT RADAR. A SMALL WINDOW FOR
THUNDER STILL EXISTS LATER TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THRU THE AREA THIS EVENING.
CONSENSUS OF THE CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING HIRES GUIDANCE HAS THE ONGOING
CONVECTION WITH THIS FRONT MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN NJ AND DE COAST
WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO OF 00Z, SO SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
A SHARP WIND SHIFT FROM SLY TO NWLY WILL OCCUR WITH THE FROPA.
EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR OUT AS WELL DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING.
THE INITIAL SURGE OF CAA IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT. LEANED ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS IN THIS
SETUP. MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM NEAR 40F IN THE POCONOS TO THE LOWER 50S
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT MONDAY. IT
APPEARS THE THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING SO NO
RESIDUAL POPS ARE NEEDED FOR THE REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY...BUT IT APPEARS THAT ONLY SOME EXTRA CLOUDINESS
N/W WILL BE THE ONLY RESULT OF THIS. IT WILL BE BREEZY ON SATURDAY
WITH A DECENT DRY NW WIND EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL WITH UPPER 50S N/W AND LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. THE FAIR
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES WARMER EACH DAY. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
N/W MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY WILL FEATURE SOME SHOWERY WEATHER AS A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE N/W MON NIGHT
AND S/W TUESDAY. THE FEATURE LOOKS RATHER PROGRESSIVE...SO ONLY
LIGHT QPF IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER TUE/WED
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT READINGS WILL STILL BE CLOSE TO OR A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOSTLY 60S ACROSS THE AREA.
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED WED...BUT THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
SHOWN APPROACHING THE AREA FOR THE LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z
EC/GFS MODELS SHOW A SLOWER TIMING WITH THIS FEATURE AND KEEPS MUCH
OF OUR AREA DRY. WE THEREFORE HAVE TONED DOWN THE WPC CHC POPS
BACK TO SLGT CHC TO KEEP THE WORDING OUT OF THE ZONES.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THU...AND MAYBE EVEN INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF THE
MORNING. EXPECT VSBYS TO IMPROVE WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE
WHILE THE IMPROVEMENT OF CIGS SHOULD OCCUR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND
BE MORE GRADUAL. FORECASTING THE TIMING OF THE IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS
FROM LIFR TO IFR TO MVFR IS RATHER TRICKY AND WILL DEPEND ON HOW
QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT MOVES THRU THE AREA, WHICH IS STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH OUR REGION
BETWEEN ABOUT 1900Z AND 2300Z. CONFINED MENTION OF TSRA IN THE TAFS
TO THE PHL TERMINALS SOUTHWARD WHERE CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE
INITIATION IS HIGHER.
LIGHT SELY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE S-SW THIS
AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. COLD FROPA WILL OCCUR
FROM WEST TO EAST AND BE MARKED BY A WINDSHIFT OUT OF THE NW BETWEEN
23Z AND 03Z THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.
SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR BUT LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
IN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
BASED ON CAPE MAY LEWES FERRY REPORT WE EXTENDED THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY INTO LOWER DELAWARE BAY.
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FOR ALL OF
TODAY. WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS ADVECTNG IN FROM THE SOUTH AND A VERY
STRONG/SHALLOW INVERSION, THE FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL NOT BE ABLE
TO BE MIXED OUT. THE FOG MAY PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING UNTIL
AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THRU.
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE THREAT WILL MAINLY BE FROM HAZARDOUS SEAS WITH WAVES OF 4 TO 7
FT DURING THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR 25 KT
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BUT
WARM AIR ATOP THE COLD WATERS WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR DEEP
MIXING. SCT TSTMS EARLY THIS MRNG WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
THERE IS ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY
THIS EVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A VERY STABLE LAYER ABOVE THE SURFACE
WILL LIMIT THE WIND THREAT BUT STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL
AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING OUR SOUTHERN WATERS.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MON THRU TUE...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
1015 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2015
.DISCUSSION... WITH DAYTIME HEATING LESSENING STORMS HAVE DIMINISHED
TO A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WITH SPOTS OF MODERATE RAIN SCATTERED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA. THE AREAS OF RAIN SLOW TO DISSIPATE
PER RADAR TRENDS. CURRENT FORECAST CALLING FOR RAIN TO END AROUND
MIDNIGHT EXCEPT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AT THE COAST FROM CAPE
CANAVERAL NORTH.
THIS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.
AVIATION... TEMPO MVFR CONDS EXPECTED WITH SCT SHRA ENDING AROUND
MIDNIGHT INTERIOR AND LASTING OVERNIGHT CAPE CANAVERAL NORTH AT THE
COAST.
.MARINE...BUOYS RECORDING SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND 2 TO 3
FOOT SEAS. STORMS NEAR THE COAST SHOULD STAY TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH
TO ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS THEN DISSIPATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY...AN INTERMEDIATE SPECIAL SOUNDING AT XMR
YIELDS A PWAT ~1.52 INCHES ALONG WITH SW FLOW AT STEERING LEVEL NR
10 TO 15 KTS. ADDITIONALLY...TEMPS AT H5 HAVE COOLED TO
-10C. THE APCHG GULF WAVE WL HELP ADD POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADT`L
STORMS ALONG WITH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. THE
MOST RECENT 2KM HRRR SOLN INDICATES ACTIVE COASTAL BREEZES FOLDING
TOGETHER LATE THIS AFTN LIKELY BRINGING THE GREATEST HAZARD FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HAIL.
ACTIVITY RESULTING FROM THE LARGER COLLISION IS SHOWN MOVING BACK
TOWARD THE EAST COAST THROUGH DUSK...ESP N OF SEBASTIAN INLET.
SHOWER AND STORMS SHOULD WIND DOWN BY 11 PM...OR MOVE OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS...LEAVING LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND LIKELY
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG EARLY SUNDAY INLAND SPOTS.
SUNDAS... THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA WILL STAY AS SUCH
WITH THE TAIL END OF FEATURE REMAINING NORTH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIDGE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND
ONSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LOCAL
CONVERGENCE OF WINDS WILL SET UP OVER THE INTERIOR AS EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND FASTER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. WITH WEAK
STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHEST PRECIP CHC ALONG WITH EMBEDDED
STORMS OVER THE NORTH INTERIOR...50 TO 55 PERCENT. QUICKER INLAND
PUSH OF SEA BREEZE SHOULD BRING THE LOWEST POPS TO THE COAST SOUTH
OF CANAVERAL...30 PERCENT.
SUN NIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. TAIL END OF
FRONTAL IS STILL PROGGED TO HANG UP NORTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BRIDGES THE BOUNDARY AND DEVELOPS
AN ONSHORE GRADIENT WIND FLOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD RISE FROM
PREVIOUS DAYS...REACHING 1.5 INCHES OR A LITTLE HIGHER AREAWIDE.
MON-NEXT SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE
WEEK WITH A RIDGE AXIS SETTLING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY TUE. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING OFFSHORE TO OUR NORTH AT MID WEEK
WILL NOT LIKELY HAVE MUCH IMPACT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT SHOWN RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH A STRONGER FRONT THAT MAY APPROACH NEXT
WEEKEND. SO THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT MOISTURE LEVELS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NO SUPPRESSION...SO EXPECT THAT WE WILL
HAVE SCATTERED SEA BREEZE GENERATED SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY.
DISTRIBUTION OF COVERAGE WILL DEPEND ON STEERING FLOW...WHICH IS
PROGGED TO BE WEAKLY WEST TO EAST EARLY IN THE WEEK AND THEN GET
STRONGER THROUGH LATE WEEK. OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ALOFT
SHOULD ADD ADDITIONAL LIFT...AND MAY ACT TO KEEP CONVECTION GOING
WELL INTO SOME EVENINGS.
WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO CHRISTEN THE ONSET OF THE WET SEASON...IT
APPEARS MOST OF THE AREA WILL START TO SEE RAINFALL DEFICITS
DIMINISH SOME.
&&
.AVIATION...
TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS EXPECTED WITH SCT SHRA WITH SOME EMBEDDED TS
ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES FROM MID AFT AND INTO THE EVE. ISOLD SFC
WND G 35 TO 40KT AND CIGS AOB FL 035 PSBL MNLY INLAND THROUGH
12/01Z. SOME PATCHY MIFG WL BE POSSIBLE INTERIOR SITES FM
12/07Z-12/12Z.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...SW WIND FORECAST ACROSS THE WATERS WITH
A E/SE COMPONENT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS THEN BECOME MORE
ONSHORE INTO SUNDAY AS FRONT WEAKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT
AROUND 5-10 KTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WITH ANY STORMS THAT EITHER FORM NEAR THE COAST
WITH INITIALLY SEA BREEZE FORMATION OR FROM BOUNDARY COLLISIONS
LATER IN THE DAY THAT PUSH OFFSHORE...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...ESP N
OF SEBASTIAN INLET.
MON-WED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SEAWARD AND WINDS WILL VEER TO
SOUTHEAST MON THEN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ON TUE. EXPECTED SPEEDS ARE
10-15 KNOTS. ON WED THE TAIL END OF ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CAUSE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO EASE AND WINDS DIMINISH. A CHANCE FOR
STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE IS INDICATED EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING...
ESPECIALLY FROM CANAVERAL NORTHWARD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 67 83 70 82 / 30 50 30 50
MCO 67 88 69 86 / 30 50 30 50
MLB 69 84 71 83 / 40 40 30 40
VRB 68 85 70 84 / 30 30 30 30
LEE 69 86 70 84 / 20 50 30 50
SFB 68 86 69 84 / 30 50 30 50
ORL 68 86 69 85 / 30 50 30 50
FPR 68 85 71 84 / 30 30 30 30
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...VOLKMER
AVIATION/SHORT TERM...WIMMER
PENDERGRAST LONG TERM....JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
359 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...
323 AM CDT
THROUGH SATURDAY...
BEYOND THE STRONG WINDS TODAY...A QUIET PERIOD IS IN STORE AFTER
A BUSY THURSDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONTAL ZONE THAT
SUPPORTED THURSDAYS STORMS ARE LIFTING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
AHEAD OF A SFC HIGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
UPPER TROUGH IS OF COURSE TRAILING THE SFC LOW AND STILL CONTAINS
SOME DECENT SHORTWAVES AS SEEN UPSTREAM FROM THE LOCAL AREA...BOTH
IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IN THE AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS WI.
EVEN SOUTH INTO ILLINOIS...SOME POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
ON THE RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING MAY PERSIST AT TIMES THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS STRONGER SHORTWAVES IN THE UPPER TROUGH ADVECT
OVERHEAD...BUT LITTLE IF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TODAY.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT...CLEARING OUT ANY
CLOUDS THAT DO FORM TODAY AND DROPPING WINDS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THE LOWEST LOWS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
WEEK.
THE DAYTIME SATURDAY PERIOD ALSO WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE SFC HIGH
BUT THIS TIME WITH RIDGING ALOFT. LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE LIKELY
WILL SEE AFTERNOON COOLING AS THE LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPS...BUT IN
GENERAL SATURDAY IS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD FOR THOSE WHO ENJOY SUNNY
AND MILD SPRING DAYS.
LENNING
&&
.LONG TERM...
323 AM CDT
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
COOLER BUT GENERALLY MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WILL PERSIST
INTO THE LATE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE SFC
RIDGE THAT KEEPS THINGS QUIET TODAY AND SATURDAY WILL HAVE MOVED
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND ALLOWED GULF RETURN FLOW TO START
DEVELOPING. THE EFFECTS OF THIS BECOME MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL START A GRADUAL INCREASE
BEGINNING DURING THE DAYTIME PERIOD SUNDAY.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING THE INCREASED GULF MOISTURE
AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT LIKELY PRECIP AND
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS
THE FRONT MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA AND EXITS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY REPEAT THE PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE
SUPPRESSING ACTIVITY TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY MOVING EAST TO ALLOW
RETURN FLOW BY WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW THE CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY
LOOK OVERDONE...BUT WILL ELECT TO WAIT FOR MORE INFORMATION
BEFORE MAKING ANY CHANGES.
THE MORE PRONOUNCED RETURN FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED BY NEXT
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AT LEAST
ACCORDING TO THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF.
LENNING
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT.
* GUSTY WINDS BCMG SW TO W ARND MIDNIGHT WITH MAX GUSTS AROUND 40
KT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25-27 KT LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
GUSTY W WINDS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
MAIN NEAR TERM CONCERN IS GUSTY SW WINDS. EXPECT A PERIOD OF
SUSTAINED WINDS 25-30 KT AND GUSTS TO 40 KT OR SO THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS...DIMINISHING SOME BUT REMAINING GUSTY OUT OF
THE WEST FRIDAY.
EXPECT MVFR CIGS LOWERING LATE TONIGHT BUT LARGELY REMAINING ABOVE
IFR...THEN LIFTING IS EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING BUT CONTINUED GUSTY
WINDS. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND HAVE THUS MAINTAINED ONLY A VCSH AT KRFD.
KMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS TONIGHT...MEDIUM ON SPECIFIC
HEIGHTS.
* MEDIUM/HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND GUSTS OVERNIGHT AND
TOMORROW...THOUGH LOWER/MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFIC SPEEDS ON
FRIDAY.
KMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
00Z...
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS. LAKE BREEZE POSSIBLE.
* SUNDAY...DRY/VFR. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS.
* MONDAY...DRY/VFR. EAST WINDS.
* TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. SOUTH WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. SOUTH WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
323 AM CDT
STRONG AND GUSTY WEST GALES IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT
MOVED ACROSS THE LAKE LATE ON THURSDAY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND
TURN NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE FLIPPING BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS GENERALLY SOUTHERN FLOW
PERSISTS UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE AND TURNS THINGS NORTHWEST AGAIN.
THIS WEST TO NORTHWEST TO SOUTH PATTERN REPEATS ITSELF MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
THURSDAY. OVERALL MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH THE FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT COULD SUPPORT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LENNING
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-
ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 4 AM FRIDAY.
IN...WIND ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 4 AM
FRIDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779 UNTIL 1 PM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
305 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
Much cooler and less humid conditions are expected across central
and southeast Illinois today in the wake of Thursday evening`s cold
front. While high temperatures should average at least 15 degrees
cooler than yesterday, they will still be near normal levels for
early April. Breezy westerly winds will persist for much of the day,
with a gradual decrease in speed toward evening as high pressure
begins to build into the area.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
Quiet start to the weekend on tap as high pressure drifts through
the Midwest. After that, focus shifts to a shortwave traveling along
the U.S./Canadian border. Some timing differences amongst the
evening models on the speed of this system, with the ECMWF and
Canadian models lagging several hours behind the U.S. counterparts.
However, enough agreement exists to bump up PoP`s to around 60%
Sunday night in many areas.
The discrepancies widen on Monday, as a small closed low traverses
the southwest U.S. border and emerges into northwest Texas. The
progress of our cold front will be slowed as low pressure develops
along the tail end of the front over the southern Plains, with only
the GFS progressive enough to get the any lingering rain out of the
CWA before Monday afternoon. Thus, have lingered rain chances across
the southeast third of the CWA into much of Monday.
Have dropped rain chances for Tuesday, as upper ridging drifts
through the central U.S., and scaled back quite a bit for Tuesday
night as well, although this may not be far enough. Some moisture
return on Wednesday may be enough for some light showers, as the
remnants of the Texas closed low nudge toward the mid-Mississippi
Valley.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
Gusty westerly winds will persist across the central Illinois
terminals through 00z Saturday in the wake of the cold front that
passed through the area Thursday evening. A period of wrap around
MVFR cigs are expected over the next few hours behind the cold
front, but VFR conditions are expected otherwise.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Bak
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1235 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
Vigorous shortwave and jet streak are pushing a cold front rapidly
across IL. They have triggered strong to severe storms with
isolated tornadoes this afternoon/evening. Remaining storms seem
to be evolving into more outflow dominated storms, but will
continue to monitor for any localized rotations the next couple
hours. Storms and cold front are projected to be east of our IL
counties by 11 pm, with strong west-southwest winds in their wake.
Sustained winds behind the front will increase to 20 mph and
gust to 35 mph at times. A brief period of clearing skies may
follow the front for an hour or so, but low clouds will return for
6-8 hours the rest of the night. Clear skies will return from west
to east around sunrise tomorrow, with gusty winds continuing.
Low temps will drop about 20 degrees colder than last night, with
readings in the mid to upper 40s toward sunrise. Likewise, highs
on Friday will be around 15-18F colder than today, but still in
the low 60s.
Updated the weather and PoP forecasts to match expected trends,
with minor adjustments to clouds cover timing. Updated info will
be available by 9 pm.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
19z/2pm surface analysis shows 998mb low centered over southeast
Iowa, with cold front trailing southward into western Missouri.
Line of convection is rapidly developing along the front within the
moderately unstable and uncapped airmass in the warm sector. 0-6km
bulk shear values will be on the increase as the afternoon
progresses as a mid-level short-wave approaches from the west,
resulting in continued convective intensification. HRRR has had a
good handle on the situation throughout the day, with its latest
iteration agreeing closely with prior runs. Based on satellite
timing tools and HRRR guidance, it appears the line of storms will
cross the Mississippi River by 23z/6pm, then will track through the
Illinois River Valley and to the I-55 corridor by about 02z/8pm.
Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat, but large hail and a
few tornadoes will be possible as well. As the storms move further
east, they will likely congeal into a solid line and the tornado
threat will diminish accordingly. Once the front passes, windy and
cooler weather will be on tap overnight with a slow west to east
clearing trend by dawn.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
Morning upper air shows a potential severe event this afternoon and
evening, as main upper level shortwave and vort max over southwest
NE at 12z will be rotating to the east. Low level thermal ridge and
moisture axis extends into MO/IL ahead of the approaching front.
low level jet is particularly strong flowing into MO/western IL and
so ample shear available in warm sector.
HRRR model and NAM a little slower on the movement of the front
through the region, going through this evening. Shear with strong
upper jet and low level southern jet will make severe potential with
severe storms possible on the cold front as it sweeps through.
Deepening surface low to move northeast into eastern IA and then
southern WI.
High pressure in control until weak front moves in and brings
showers on late Sunday and Sunday night. Another chance off showers
Tuesday into Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
Gusty westerly winds will persist across the central Illinois
terminals through 00z Saturday in the wake of the cold front that
passed through the area Thursday evening. A period of wrap around
MVFR cigs are expected over the next few hours behind the cold
front, but VFR conditions are expected otherwise.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Bak
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
359 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1115 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
CONDITIONS WILL BE WINDY TODAY AS THE LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES
BEGINS TO PULL AWAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING
BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE
REGION. BUT THEN FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT THE REGION WILL BE DRY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THE WINDS AND CLOUD COVERAGE
DECREASE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
987MB SURFACE LOW LIFTING INTO QUEBEC AT PRESS TIME WITH A
SECONDARY VORT MAX AND SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH CURRENTLY ROTATING
THROUGH CHICAGO. BRIEF RELAXATION OF PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY HAS ALLOWED WIND SPEEDS TO SUBSIDE A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM SURFACE OBS SHOW NUMEROUS GUSTS OVER
40 KTS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY DEEP MIXING HEIGHTS IN PLACE OVER OUR AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH 50 KT WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND A GOOD PUSH OF ISENTROPIC DESCENT SEEN MOVING IN BEHIND
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. MSAS ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS A DECENT PRESSURE
RISE-FALL COUPLET ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THAT MAY BE HELPING PRODUCE
THE HIGHER WIND GUSTS. WE DO START TO LOSE DIURNAL SURFACE
HEATING/BETTER PBL MIXING BY THE TIME THIS TROUGH MAKES IT TO OUR
AREA BUT AM CONCERNED WE COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES...DURING THE EARLY
EVENING AND AM HESITANT TO SOUND THE "ALL CLEAR" ON STRONG WIND
GUSTS. HAVE THEREFORE DECIDED TO EXTEND AND EXPAND THE WIND
ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN PLACE.
THIS SECONDARY PV ANOMALY...EXTENDING DEEP INTO THE
TROPOSPHERE...MAY ALSO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AS IT ROTATES THROUGH
THE REGION THIS EVENING. UPSTREAM RADAR/SURFACE OBS SHOW DECENT
SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...OCCURRING WITH THIS WAVE
AND SUSPECT SIMILAR RESULTS IN OUR LOCAL AREA. MOST OF THE LATEST
HI-RES/RAPID UPDATE MODELS GENERATE AT LEAST SOME QPF IN OUR
NORTHERN CWA AND SEE NO REASON TO ARGUE BASED ON STRENGTH/DEPTH OF
THE ANOMALY SEEN IN BOTH WV IMAGERY AND MODEL PLAN VIEWS. HAVE
THEREFORE RAISED POPS FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES IN THE 22-03Z
TIMEFRAME. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THESE SHOWERS COULD HELP MIX DOWN
SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE THIS
EVENING....PROVIDING FURTHER SUPPORT FOR A SIMPLE EXTENSION OF THE
CURRENT WIND ADVISORY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD EASILY DROP INTO THE MID 30S UNDER STRONG CAA.
STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO INHERITED FORECAST...WHICH WAS SIMILAR TO
LATEST MOS GUIDANCE. WELCOME RETURN TO MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER BY
TOMORROW AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE ANTICYCLONE BUILD
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. SOME LATE DAY WAA AND FULL SUN SHOULD PUSH US TO
AROUND 60F DESPITE COOL START.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OUT QUIET...WITH AN AMPLIFYING 500MB
RIDGE ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
SATURDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL START OUT CLEAR IN THE EVENING...THEN
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WEST AND CENTRAL AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOWS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE BUT NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST GIVEN
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. KEPT GOING FORECAST OF TEMPS IN THE
MID-UPPER 30S.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND FORECAST COMPLEXITY RETURN LATE
WEEKEND AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...WITH A COMPLICATED
PATTERN AND THE ASSOCIATED MODEL DISAGREEMENT.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING THE CWA SITS ON THE OUTER EDGE OF THE SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH BY THIS TIME IS JUST OFF THE EASTERN US
COAST. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS VARIOUS SHORTWAVES PROPAGATE THROUGH THE
FLOW FROM THE DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER MANITOBA. BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH/COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM MN/WI SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GENERAL DISAGREEMENT
AMONG MODELS ON EXACT TIMING OF ANY PRECIPITATION...WITH THE GFS
BEING MOST PROGRESSIVE AND DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN OUR CWA...AND THE NAM/GEM ECMWF
WAITING UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING TO BRING IN PRECIPITATION.
THE ECMWF CAMP IS ALSO A BIT SHARPER WITH THE UL TROUGH...WHEREAS
THE GFS IS MORE BROAD. DECIDED TO GO WITH A GFS/ECMWF COMPROMISE FOR
NOW WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF POPS. THIS BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING AND HAS IT EXITING THE EASTERN CWA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AND HAVE POPS/WINDS REFLECTING THIS. MOISTURE WILL BE
AMPLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 1.3 INCHES
WITH RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SFC HIGH AND APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH TO WEST...PULLING MOISTURE RIGHT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
FRONT MOVEMENT SHOULD BE PRETTY QUICK...AND INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL
SO DONT REALLY HAVE ANY CONCERNS FOR STORMS WITH THIS. DID ADD A
SLGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER LATE SUN NIGHT WITH SOME MODELS GENERATING
100-200 J/KG OF MUCAPE...BUT NOT REALLY CONFIDENT IN THAT OCCURRING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN UNDERNEATH A BUILDING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH
MODELS APPEAR TO AGREE ON. AS A RESULT...KEPT THINGS DRY FOR THAT
TIME.
HOWEVER...BY MID TO LATE WEEK...PROBLEMS DEVELOP AS THEY
ATTEMPT TO RESOLVE SPLIT FLOW ALOFT...WITH A TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS 00Z WED...AND ANOTHER
TROUGH/POTENTIAL CLOSED LOW MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIE THROUGH THURSDAY. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF DEVELOP A SURFACE/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE DAKOTAS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR
CWA...AND INTO KY/TN. THIS BRINGS US SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY...AND HIGHER POPS INTO THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS
THE PATTERN SOLIDIFIES INTO A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE MIDWEST. THE LOW
EVENTUALLY DRIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...BUT AS TO
STRENGTH/TIMING/EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH THE LOW MOVES....ITS ALL UP IN
THE AIR. KEPT CONSENSUS CHANCE POPS IN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH
CHANCE THUNDER ONLY ON THURSDAY WHEN BOTH MODELS HAVE US IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THE OCCLUDED SFC LOW. CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS
LOWER...GIVEN MODEL DISCREPANCIES AND DIFFICULTIES HANDLING THE
MERGING FEATURES. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...LOOKS TO STAY NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S/UPPER 50S NEAR THE
LAKE/ AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
DEEP MIXING AND TIGHT GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN WESTERLY WIND GUSTS
OF 25-30 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A STRONG
MIDLEVEL VORT MAX WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING
AND MAY GENERATE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. WELL MIXED/DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL LIKELY KEEP CEILINGS ABOVE 3 KFT DURING THIS TIME
THOUGH. STRONG RIDGING AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL THEN ENSURE VFR
CONDITIONS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077>081.
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...AGD
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
136 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY BEHIND A STRONG COLD
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
PROVIDING LIGHTER WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES TODAY
INTO SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND
LOWS IN THE 30S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
18Z RAOB OUT OF KILX INDICATES CURRENT CONV PROB ATTM W/CAPPING
INVERSION ARND H85 AND NO DOUBT EXACERBATED BY SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCD/W SW TROUGH OVERHEAD. EXTENT/DURATION OF POPS THIS EVENING
AHD OF STG CDFNT SWEEPING EWD OUT OF WRN IL PROBLEMATIC IN LIGHT
OF LIMITED UPSTREAM DVLPMNT SO FAR AND LACK OF LARGER SCALE
ORGANIZATION. LATEST NR TERM AND 18Z GUIDANCE TEPID AT BEST AND
SUGGESTIVE OF TEMPERING PRIOR CAT MENTION. REGARDLESS COOLING
ALOFT SPREAD EWD OVERTOP FNTL ZONE IN TANDEM W/RAMPING LLJ SHLD
PREDICATE MORE ERSTWHILE DVLPMNT THOUGH MID EVENING AS CONVN
SLIDES EWD INTO WRN ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
MULTIPLE CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO RIPPLE THROUGH
THE REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF MAIN TROUGH AXIS STILL WELL TO
OUR WEST. THIS HAS LED TO A MUDDLED MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF WEAK/ELEVATED CONVECTION SO FAR TODAY. DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION HAS BEEN SLOW GIVEN ABUNDANT RAIN AND STRATUS.
STARTED TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING THE LAST COUPLE
HOURS BUT STILL A LOT OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TO INHIBIT SURFACE
DIABATIC HEATING. LATEST RAP/SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS BETTER SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY JUST NOW STARTING TO NOSE INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN
CWA AS WARM FRONT IS PUSHED NORTHWARD BY STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW BUT RAP SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A
SUBTLE 700-800MB INVERSION OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON. TWO FEATURES TO WATCH FOR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS
EVENING...ONE IS A SUBTLE PREFRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY PUSHING
THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SECOND IS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT
ITSELF...STILL IN CENTRAL MISSOURI. FORCING IS WEAK WITH THE FIRST
WAVE BUT APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TO GENERATE AROUND
1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE OVER ILLINOIS. THERE IS HOWEVER A LOCAL MINIMUM
OF INSTABILITY SEEN ON RAP/SPC MESOANALYSIS OVER WESTERN INDIANA.
RAP SUGGESTS INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA WILL FILL IN OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND IF THE CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS CAN LATCH
ONTO THAT...IT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER IN OUR
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING IS LOW
THOUGH...GIVEN NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF STORMS CURRENTLY ON RADAR
AND RELATIVELY DIFFUSE FORCING. STORMS MAY CLIP OUR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES BUT DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE LEFT BY
THAT POINT. SPC HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH RIGHT UP TO OUR WESTERN
BORDER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLUSTER OF STORMS UPSTREAM DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO SEE IF A LOCAL EXTENSION MAY BE NECESSARY BUT
FOR NOW THREAT APPEARS LOW. POTENTIAL THREAT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
FALL IN THE 22-00Z TIMEFRAME WITH THE MAIN HAZARD BEING DAMAGING
WINDS.
SECOND FEATURE TO WATCH IS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT. THIS FEATURE WILL
NOT ARRIVE UNTIL 03-04Z TONIGHT AND BY THEN WE LOSE ANY SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MODEST...AROUND 7
C/KM...BUT NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. SOME DAMAGING WINDS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN
VERY STRONG LLJ WITH 850MB WINDS OVER 50 KTS BUT WILL BE CONTINGENT
UPON GETTING A SUSTAINED UPDRAFT AND ADEQUATE PRECIP LOADING. THAT
IS QUESTIONABLE AT THIS POINT. THREAT IS CERTAINLY THERE BUT IS
CONDITIONAL ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY IS LEFT BY THE TIME IT REACHES
US. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR UPSTREAM TRENDS CLOSELY THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO UPDATE THE FORECAST AS NECESSARY.
UPDATED GRIDS/ZFP WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE HIGH WINDS ON FRIDAY...
THE SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ACTIVE WEATHER TODAY
WILL HAVE MADE ITS WAY INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS PUTS THE CWA LARGELY IN THE DRY SLOT AND IN THE REGION
OF CAA. ALOFT...A CLOSED 500MB LOW LIFTS FROM UPPER MICHIGAN FRIDAY
MORNING TO JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH A STRONG
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND STATES...A 100 KT 500MB
JET DEVELOPS OVER THE CWA AND REMAINS THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS...IT APPEARS WE WILL BE MIXING
TO NEAR 900MB EARLIER IN THE DAY...THEN UP AS HIGH AS 700-750MB BY
MID AFTERNOON. THINKING GUSTS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON
THEN TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM AND SFC
PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. THINKING GUSTS TO
35-45 MPH ARE LIKELY GIVEN MIXING POTENTIAL TOMORROW...BUT WILL HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING ANY WIND ADVISORIES FOR NOW...AS WE ARE RIGHT BELOW
CRITERIA AND DO NOT WANT TO DETRACT PUBLIC ATTENTION AWAY FROM THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. KEPT THE GOING
HEADLINE FOR THE GALE WARNING UNTIL 15Z...AS CONDITIONS ARE MORE
STABLE OVER THE LAKE.
OTHERWISE...SHORTWAVE/PV ANOMALY ROTATING AROUND THE EXITING LOW
PRESSURE MAY BRING ADDITIONAL LL MOISTURE FORCING FOR RAIN SHOWERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
CWA. MODELS WERE IN GREAT DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE
WAVE...SO FOR NOW KEPT JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS/RAIN SHOWERS FOR NOW.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVERHEAD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL...WITH
HIGHS AGAIN STRUGGLING TO REACH ABOVE THE LOW 60S.
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...500MB FLOW IS SOMEWHAT SPLIT BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
UPPER MI/NORTHERN LOWER MI THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN A DEVELOPING
CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. TAKES SHAPE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUE AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER OUR CWA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE
LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TUE NIGHT INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL
PLAINS BEFORE PHASING INTO THE NORTHERN BRANCH WED.
FOR OUR CWA...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IN
ONTARIO/UPPER MI. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS BRING THE FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THOUGH THEY DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO EXACT
TIMING AND STRENGTH. AS USUAL...THE GFS IS FASTER AND SLIGHTLY
DEEPER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH...AND THUS THE
FRONT IS MORE ORGANIZED. THE ECMWF SHOWS A WEAKER UL TROUGH AND
CORRESPONDING SFC SYSTEM/COLD FRONT. KEPT CONSENSUS POPS FOR
NOW...WHICH DID A DECENT JOB SHOWING THE OVERALL TREND. TUESDAY
LOOKS TO REMAIN LARGELY QUIET...WITH SMALL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.
OF COURSE...THE PHASING SYSTEMS/STREAMS ARE A COMPLETE MESS IN THE
MODEL WORLD...WITH A WHOLE HOST OF SOLUTIONS THAT COULD PLAY OUT
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. JUST KEPT THE CONSENSUS POPS AND OUR
FORECASTED THUNDER AS THERE IS TOO MUCH DISAGREEMENT TO MAKE ANY
REAL IMPROVEMENTS. GOOD NEWS IS...TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S AND
LOW 70S FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
STRONG POST FRONTAL LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION/PRESSURE RISES WILL
SUPPORT A RATHER WINDY DAY AT THE TERMINALS. RETAINED VTCS WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH 07Z AT KSBN AND 08-09Z AT KFWA.
DRY/MAINLY VFR OTHERWISE OUTSIDE OF A PERIOD OF HIGH MVFR STRATOCU
THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...T
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
817 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 816 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
SOME STORMS THIS EVENING COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL
PRIMARILY BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER...IN THE
MIDDLE 50S TO AROUND 60.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
18Z RAOB OUT OF KILX INDICATES CURRENT CONV PROB ATTM W/CAPPING
INVERSION ARND H85 AND NO DOUBT EXACERBATED BY SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCD/W SW TROUGH OVERHEAD. EXTENT/DURATION OF POPS THIS EVENING
AHD OF STG CDFNT SWEEPING EWD OUT OF WRN IL PROBLEMATIC IN LIGHT
OF LIMITED UPSTREAM DVLPMNT SO FAR AND LACK OF LARGER SCALE
ORGANIZATION. LATEST NR TERM AND 18Z GUIDANCE TEPID AT BEST AND
SUGGESTIVE OF TEMPERING PRIOR CAT MENTION. REGARDLESS COOLING
ALOFT SPREAD EWD OVERTOP FNTL ZONE IN TANDEM W/RAMPING LLJ SHLD
PREDICATE MORE ERSTWHILE DVLPMNT THOUGH MID EVENING AS CONVN
SLIDES EWD INTO WRN ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
MULTIPLE CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO RIPPLE THROUGH
THE REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF MAIN TROUGH AXIS STILL WELL TO
OUR WEST. THIS HAS LED TO A MUDDLED MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF WEAK/ELEVATED CONVECTION SO FAR TODAY. DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION HAS BEEN SLOW GIVEN ABUNDANT RAIN AND STRATUS.
STARTED TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING THE LAST COUPLE
HOURS BUT STILL A LOT OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TO INHIBIT SURFACE
DIABATIC HEATING. LATEST RAP/SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS BETTER SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY JUST NOW STARTING TO NOSE INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN
CWA AS WARM FRONT IS PUSHED NORTHWARD BY STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW BUT RAP SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A
SUBTLE 700-800MB INVERSION OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON. TWO FEATURES TO WATCH FOR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS
EVENING...ONE IS A SUBTLE PREFRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY PUSHING
THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SECOND IS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT
ITSELF...STILL IN CENTRAL MISSOURI. FORCING IS WEAK WITH THE FIRST
WAVE BUT APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TO GENERATE AROUND
1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE OVER ILLINOIS. THERE IS HOWEVER A LOCAL MINIMUM
OF INSTABILITY SEEN ON RAP/SPC MESOANALYSIS OVER WESTERN INDIANA.
RAP SUGGESTS INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA WILL FILL IN OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND IF THE CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS CAN LATCH
ONTO THAT...IT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER IN OUR
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING IS LOW
THOUGH...GIVEN NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF STORMS CURRENTLY ON RADAR
AND RELATIVELY DIFFUSE FORCING. STORMS MAY CLIP OUR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES BUT DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE LEFT BY
THAT POINT. SPC HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH RIGHT UP TO OUR WESTERN
BORDER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLUSTER OF STORMS UPSTREAM DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO SEE IF A LOCAL EXTENSION MAY BE NECESSARY BUT
FOR NOW THREAT APPEARS LOW. POTENTIAL THREAT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
FALL IN THE 22-00Z TIMEFRAME WITH THE MAIN HAZARD BEING DAMAGING
WINDS.
SECOND FEATURE TO WATCH IS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT. THIS FEATURE WILL
NOT ARRIVE UNTIL 03-04Z TONIGHT AND BY THEN WE LOSE ANY SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MODEST...AROUND 7
C/KM...BUT NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. SOME DAMAGING WINDS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN
VERY STRONG LLJ WITH 850MB WINDS OVER 50 KTS BUT WILL BE CONTINGENT
UPON GETTING A SUSTAINED UPDRAFT AND ADEQUATE PRECIP LOADING. THAT
IS QUESTIONABLE AT THIS POINT. THREAT IS CERTAINLY THERE BUT IS
CONDITIONAL ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY IS LEFT BY THE TIME IT REACHES
US. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR UPSTREAM TRENDS CLOSELY THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO UPDATE THE FORECAST AS NECESSARY.
UPDATED GRIDS/ZFP WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE HIGH WINDS ON FRIDAY...
THE SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ACTIVE WEATHER TODAY
WILL HAVE MADE ITS WAY INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS PUTS THE CWA LARGELY IN THE DRY SLOT AND IN THE REGION
OF CAA. ALOFT...A CLOSED 500MB LOW LIFTS FROM UPPER MICHIGAN FRIDAY
MORNING TO JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH A STRONG
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND STATES...A 100 KT 500MB
JET DEVELOPS OVER THE CWA AND REMAINS THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS...IT APPEARS WE WILL BE MIXING
TO NEAR 900MB EARLIER IN THE DAY...THEN UP AS HIGH AS 700-750MB BY
MID AFTERNOON. THINKING GUSTS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON
THEN TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM AND SFC
PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. THINKING GUSTS TO
35-45 MPH ARE LIKELY GIVEN MIXING POTENTIAL TOMORROW...BUT WILL HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING ANY WIND ADVISORIES FOR NOW...AS WE ARE RIGHT BELOW
CRITERIA AND DO NOT WANT TO DETRACT PUBLIC ATTENTION AWAY FROM THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. KEPT THE GOING
HEADLINE FOR THE GALE WARNING UNTIL 15Z...AS CONDITIONS ARE MORE
STABLE OVER THE LAKE.
OTHERWISE...SHORTWAVE/PV ANOMALY ROTATING AROUND THE EXITING LOW
PRESSURE MAY BRING ADDITIONAL LL MOISTURE FORCING FOR RAIN SHOWERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
CWA. MODELS WERE IN GREAT DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE
WAVE...SO FOR NOW KEPT JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS/RAIN SHOWERS FOR NOW.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVERHEAD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL...WITH
HIGHS AGAIN STRUGGLING TO REACH ABOVE THE LOW 60S.
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...500MB FLOW IS SOMEWHAT SPLIT BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
UPPER MI/NORTHERN LOWER MI THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN A DEVELOPING
CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. TAKES SHAPE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUE AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER OUR CWA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE
LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TUE NIGHT INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL
PLAINS BEFORE PHASING INTO THE NORTHERN BRANCH WED.
FOR OUR CWA...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IN
ONTARIO/UPPER MI. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS BRING THE FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THOUGH THEY DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO EXACT
TIMING AND STRENGTH. AS USUAL...THE GFS IS FASTER AND SLIGHTLY
DEEPER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH...AND THUS THE
FRONT IS MORE ORGANIZED. THE ECMWF SHOWS A WEAKER UL TROUGH AND
CORRESPONDING SFC SYSTEM/COLD FRONT. KEPT CONSENSUS POPS FOR
NOW...WHICH DID A DECENT JOB SHOWING THE OVERALL TREND. TUESDAY
LOOKS TO REMAIN LARGELY QUIET...WITH SMALL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.
OF COURSE...THE PHASING SYSTEMS/STREAMS ARE A COMPLETE MESS IN THE
MODEL WORLD...WITH A WHOLE HOST OF SOLUTIONS THAT COULD PLAY OUT
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. JUST KEPT THE CONSENSUS POPS AND OUR
FORECASTED THUNDER AS THERE IS TOO MUCH DISAGREEMENT TO MAKE ANY
REAL IMPROVEMENTS. GOOD NEWS IS...TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S AND
LOW 70S FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
GENERAL VFR CONDS XPCD THIS PD ALTHOUGH TRANSIENT PD OF MVFR CIGS
PSBL ASSUMING SHRA/VCTS HOLD ALG FNTL BNDRY. BIGGER ISSUE WILL BE
POST FNTL GRADIENT WINDS W/LL CAA SURGE AND INCOMING MID LVL DRY
SLOT. XPC A PD OF SFC GUSTS OF 35-40 KTS IN 09-15Z WINDOW.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...T
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...T/MURPHY
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
206 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
FINE TUNED THE POPS AND TEMPERATURES ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
TRENDS IN RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS. OVERALL...THERE IS A SLOWER
TREND TO THE WIDEPREAD CONVECTION. CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY
WARMING OFF TO THE WEST...HOWEVER A STRONG 850 MB JET OF 50 TO 55
KTS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH DAWN...SO WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITHIN EVEN MODERATE TO STRONG
STORMS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1033 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
JUST SENT OUT ONE LAST UPDATE TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING.
UPSTREAM RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING THE NEAREST THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
AREA CURRENTLY MOVING INTO FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWESTERN
INDIANA. BASED ON THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THE
INDIVIDUAL STORMS...AND THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE LINE AS THE
WHOLE...IT APPEARS THAT IT MAY BE EVEN LATER BEFORE WE SEE THE
FIRST STORMS MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. AS IT
STANDS...PRECIP ONSET IS FORECAST TO OCCUR BETWEEN 6 AND 7Z IN OUR
FAR NORTHWEST AND WESTERN COUNTIES...WITH THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 9 AND 16Z ON FRIDAY. DAMAGING WINDS
GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY FLASH
FLOODING WILL REMAIN THREATS WITH THE LINE OF STORMS AS THEY TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. A NEW SET OF ZONES HAS ALREADY BEEN
ISSUED BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED GRID UPDATES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 813 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
ANOTHER UPDATE TO THE FORECAST GRIDS AND THE ZONE FORECAST TEXT
PRODUCT WERE NECESSARY THIS EVENING. BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE
AND RADAR TRENDS...IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION ONSET ACROSS THE
AREA WILL OCCUR A FEW HOURS LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. OVER
THE PAST HOUR OR SO THERE HAVE BEEN NO SHOWERS OR STORMS PRESENT
ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. BASED ON
UPSTREAM RADAR RETURNS...IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE MUCH LATER
TONIGHT BEFORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA.
THEREFORE...BOTH THE FORECAST GRIDS AND ZONES WERE UPDATED TO
REFLECT THIS NEW TREND. THE SAME ISSUES WITH THE STORMS WILL HOLD
TRUE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ALL STILL POSSIBLE. A LINE OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS NOW EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 8 AND 13Z ON FRIDAY. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
STILL IN EFFECT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
JUST UPDATED THE GRIDS...ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT...AND
HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCT TO ALL REFLECT THE CANCELLATION OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 40. WITH ONLY A FEW MEAGER THUNDERSTORMS
HAVING MOVED ACROSS THE AREA SO FAR THIS EVENING...AND WITH NO NEW
STORMS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA ANY TIME SOON...THE WATCH WAS
CANCELLED. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS STILL IN EFFECT. THE GRIDS
WERE ALSO FRESHENED UP A BIT USING THE LATEST OBS DATA ACROSS THE
BOARD. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CURRENT CONDITIONS TO DETERMINE
WHEN TO ISSUE THE NEXT FORECAST UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM WITH EASTERN
KENTUCKY REMAINING UNDER BROAD SW FLOW TODAY BEFORE AN UL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO OUR
NORTH...HELPING TO FOCUS SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE CONVECTION SO
FAR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH BEST
CHANCES ALONG THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE A SPC SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. AND AS THE UL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL HEIGHT FALLS AND UL
ENERGY...THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE.
HIGH RES MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND NAM12 BOTH INDICATE A
LULL IN CONVECTION TONIGHT AFTER THE DIURNAL CONVECTION WANES
AND BEFORE THE COLD FRONT REACHES OUR AREA. AS SUCH...HAVE
INDICATED A DECREASE IN SHOWERS/CONVECTION DURING THAT TIME IN
THE POP/SKY/WX GRIDS. BY THE TIME THE COLD FRONT REACHES KY AROUND
06Z...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NUMEROUS AND WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE STATE. PER LATEST MODEL OUTPUT AND
SOUNDINGS...A CONVECTIVE LINE COULD DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A THREAT OF HIGH WINDS
AND HEAVY RAIN. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE CONVECTION FORMS WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATER TONIGHT...BUT IT IS LIKELY THAT THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. THERE WONT BE THE
ADDED BENEFIT OF DAYTIME HEATING BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MID TO
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION TO SUSTAIN ITSELF. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD THEN EXIT EASTERN KY BY 18Z...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY
COOLER...DRIER AIR AND N TO NW FLOW.
THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY CUT OFF ANY
REMAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND DRY THE AIR...DECREASING
HUMIDITY LEVELS SUBSTANTIALLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES
TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL VALUES...IN THE MID 60S...ON SATURDAY
AS A HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVERHEAD. THIS IS A BIG CHANGE FROM
TODAY/S TEMPERATURES WHICH HAVE SURPASSED THE 80 DEGREE MARK
FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WHICH SHOULD LAST INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. BY THEN THE HIGH WILL BE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST...AND
MODELS SHOW GULF MOISTURE TRYING TO MAKE A RETURN TO THE NORTH AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NW. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THIS
FRONT WILL BRING A QUICK CHANCE AT SOME SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE 12Z RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW
SUGGEST MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO OUR NORTH...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH AND KEEPS MOISTURE AT BAY.
HOWEVER...WITH THIS BEING A RECENT CHANGE...HAVE ONLY TRENDED THE
POP LOWER INSTEAD OF REMOVING PRECIP FROM THE FORECAST. 12Z RUNS
SHOW A RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY AND HAVE CONTINUED CHANCE POPS
FOR SHOWERS AT THAT TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
CEILINGS WILL BE LOWERING THROUGH DAWN AS A COLD FRONT AND LINE OF
CONVECTION APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE STRONGER AND MORE
WIDEPSREAD CONVECTION LOOKS TO AFFECT EASTERN KENTUCKY BETWEEN 09
AND 13Z...BEFORE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE MID AND LATE MORNING FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 7 TO 15 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS WILL
VEER TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. CEILINGS
WILL DROP DOWN TO MVFR AT TIMES WITHIN THE STORMS...WITH EVEN SOME
TEMPORARY IFR POSSIBLE. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1133 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 10/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS TO NORTHEAST TEXAS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...REACHING AND MOVING
THROUGH KAEX NEAR 10/12Z...THEN REACHING AND STALLING AT KBPT/KLCH
AROUND 10/14-15Z...AND KLFT/KARA 10/16-17Z. STILL EXPECTING LOW
CLOUDS WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP
BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES. AS THE FRONT ARRIVES...A FEW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT...THEN A BAND OF SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG AND
BEHIND IT. AGAIN MVFR/IFR TYPE CEILINGS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN REDUCING
VISIBILITY IN THUNDERSTORMS...THAT SHOULD LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
RUA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015/
UPDATE...
A BKN BAND OF STRONG TO SVR STORMS CONTINUES TO MARCH EAST ACRS
NRN LA THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A SECOND BAND OF
TSTMS HAS FORMED ALONG THE FRONT...EXTENDING FM HOT SPRINGS ARK
TO TERRELL TX. THE FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO REACH OUR NWRN ZONES
LATE TONIGHT BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM. THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH
ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO GRIDS TONIGHT...MAINLY TO BRING IN LINE WITH
RECENT OBS AND TRENDS. ADJUSTED THE POP/WX GRIDS FOR THE EVENING.
INCORPORATED A BLEND OF RECENT HRRR RUNS...WHICH GENERALLY
LOWERED POPS FOR THE EVENING. ACTIVITY HAS STAYED NORTH OF THE CWA
SO FAR...BUT EXPECT IT WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE NRN TIER OF
PARISHES AND COUNTIES TOWARD MIDNIGHT WITH CHCS INCREASING
THEREAFTER. OTHERWISE...FCST SEEMS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.
24
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015/
DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATING APPROACHING NE-SW
ORIENTED COLD FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THROUGH
CENTRAL TEXAS. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS NOW DEVELOPING
ALONG BOUNDARY...WITH MORE ROBUST CONVECTION DEVELOPING PRE-
FRONTAL FROM SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR AUSTIN.
OTHER THAN THAT...LOCAL AREA REMAINS CLEAR OF ANY PRECIP. CLOUDS
WERE ABUNDANT TODAY BUT NONE-THE-LESS...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
AGAIN INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THE NORM.
WET WEATHER PATTERN INCOMING.
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO ADVANCE RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST
TO ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR AEX TO BPT TOWARD SUNRISE...THEN SLOWING
AND STALLING MOVING INTO THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. FRONT THEN
EXPECTED TO RETREAT RAPIDLY NORTH SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH FRONT...ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF
FRONT ALONG WITH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH ON A
STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST ALOFT....WARRANTS HIGH END RAIN CHANCES
BEGINNING FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SPC HAS PLACED THE
FORECAST AREA WITHIN A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
FOR FRIDAY. GOING INTO THE NEW WORK-WEEK...DEEP GULF/PACIFIC MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY PER THE ECMWF AND GFS.
THUS RESPECTABLE POPS CONTINUING.
MARINE...LIGHT SOUTHERLIES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...BECOMING MORE
EASTERLY FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO THE NEAR COASTAL
WATERS AND STALLS. WITH THIS FRONT WILL COME A CHANCE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL THEN LIFT NORTH AS WARM FRONT SUNDAY
WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA WILL THEN KEEP A DAILY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH MID-WEEK.
23
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 69 77 61 77 / 40 70 30 50
LCH 71 80 65 78 / 20 70 40 60
LFT 71 82 65 78 / 10 70 40 60
BPT 71 80 66 78 / 20 70 40 60
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
602 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
BECOMING ALL RAIN BY AFTERNOON AS WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6 AM UPDATE...FIRST ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS CROSSING THE
REGION ATTM. ONCE THIS GOES BY, WE`LL SEE A BIT OF A BREAK, THEN
ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY RAIN TO FOLLOW THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH. THE LATEST NAM WAS HANDLING THIS WELL AND
MATCHED CLOSELY THE RUC AND THE HRRR. THEREFORE USED THE NAM TO
ADJUST POPS AND THE PRECIP TYPE FOR TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY AT OR BELOW FREEZING AT MANY LOCATIONS AT THIS HOUR, SO
STILL EXPECT A SLIPPERY COMMUTE FOR JUST ABOUT EVERYONE THIS
MORNING. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THEREFORE REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...RADAR ECHOES BLOSSOMING ACRS WRN MAINE AND
SPREADING INTO CWA AS OF 06Z. AIRMASS IS VRY SLOWLY SATURATING AND
EXPECT PRECIP TO BEGIN BY 09Z AT BANGOR AND 10-11Z ELSEWHERE.
TRICKY FCST AS TO HOW PCPN WL EVOLVE DRG THE OVRNGT HRS. VWP FROM
GYX RADAR INDICATING SERLY WINDS 15-20KTS JUST OFF THE SFC DRAWING
IN WM AIR. SFC TEMPS RANGE FM M20S OVR CNTRL ZONES TO L/M 30S OVR
INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND COASTAL AREAS. WITH DRY DWPTS STILL IN PLACE
COURTESY OF SFC RIDGE AXIS EXPECT PCPN TO WET BULB DOWN AND START
OFF AS SNOW ACRS NRN SXNS IN THE NEXT SVRL HRS.
WHAT LITTLE SNOW THERE IS WL QUICKLY MIX WITH SLEET AND FRZG RAIN
BEFORE BCMG ALL RAIN BY 17Z THIS AFTN IN THE CROWN OF MAINE.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WARM AIR WL RAPIDLY ENCROACH INTO AREA WITH
INTERIOR DOWNEAST BCMG RAIN BY 12Z AND COASTAL SXNS STARTING OFF
AS RAIN. EXPECT LOW-LVL MOISTURE TO BE PRESENT BTWN FRONTAL BNDRY
DRG THE AFTN/EVNG HRS. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR NORTH WMFNT
CAN ACCELERATE ACRS THE MTNS THIS AFTN AS 00Z GFS INDICATING IT
GETS HUNG UP ACRS SRN NEW ENGLAND 18Z TDA WITH NAM BRINGING IT
INTO NRN AREAS BY THIS TIME. EITHER WAY, WITH SFC TEMPS ABV FRZG
AT THIS TIME AND H8 TEMPS SURGING TO > +4C FOR ALL AREAS EXPECT
ALL RAIN BY THIS TIME. CWA WL LKLY SEE FOG TONIGHT WITH MELTING
SNOW AND MINIMAL DWPT DEPRESSION AS OCCLUDED FRONT TAKES ITS SWEET
TIME WORKING THRU. FRONT WL EVENTUALLY MV THRU AFT 06Z WITH WINDS
GOING WEST AND BRINGING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR, POSSIBLY ENUF TO
SCOUR OUT FOG.
WL CONTINUE WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR GLAZE OF ICE ACROSS MOST AREAS
WITH BIGGEST QUESTION MARK CENTERING ON COASTAL AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY,
BRINGING THE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
THESE WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MORNING, AND ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW
WILL OCCUR IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH MAINE WOODS. EVEN
THERE, SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE MINIMAL. SATURDAY`S HIGHS WILL BE
MILD, RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 50 DOWNEAST.
BUFKIT PROFILES INDICATE THERE WILL BE DEEP MIXING ON SATURDAY,
WHICH WILL LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON; WEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE LIKELY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT TO
KEEP SKIES AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS WITH
CONTINUING WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING,
LEADING TO A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30
IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S DOWNEAST. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY, WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW SPRINKLES
OVER THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
WARMER THAN THOSE ON SATURDAY; HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PARTS OF OUR AREA AND THE LOWER
50S DOWNEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA`S WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. HOWEVER, IT WILL GIVE WAY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE HUDSON BAY BRINGS A COLD FRONT TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL OVERNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT MAINLY
RAIN WITH THIS FRONT, ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN LATE MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH MAINE WOODS. LINGERING
WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTH AND WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH ON
WEDNESDAY, AND WHILE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY AS A RESULT, A
FAST-MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OVER FAR
NORTHERN MAINE. OTHERWISE, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY MILD THROUGH
THE EXTENDED, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND EVEN APPROACHING 60 FOR
INTERIOR DOWNEAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S MOST NIGHTS,
THOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT SOME 20S ACROSS THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR AT NRN TERMINALS WITH MVFR AT BGR AND BHB EARLY ON.
MIXED PRECIPITATION MOVES IN WITH -SN AT FVE, CAR, PQI AND HUL
BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z-14Z BEFORE MIXING WITH -FZRAPL. IFR EXPECTED
THRU END OF TAF VALID TIME IN FOG AND/OR DRIZZLE AT ALL SITES.
BHB WILL LIKELY SEE -RA THRU 22Z TDA WITH BGR BECOMING RAIN AFTER
12Z. SOUTHERN TERMINALS MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY LLWS THRU
17Z.
SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ON SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS AS A FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION. THIS WILL PRODUCE CEILINGS AOB 3000 FT AS WELL AS
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS, AGAIN, MAINLY IN THE NORTH. WINDS
WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BECOME VFR AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ARRIVES WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WL CONTINUE SCA INTO TONIGHT AS SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 5KT.
WIND GUSTS REMAIN LOW DUE TO STABLE AIRMASS OVER WATERS.
SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
SATURDAY AS WINDS AND WAVES WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO A FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THEREAFTER, CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY QUIESCENT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE TOTAL QPF FROM THIS UPCOMING EVENT STILL LOOKS TO BE
AROUND 0.50" FOR MOST OF THE HSA W/A COMBO OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
THIS MORNING CHANGING TO RAIN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE SNOWPACK INITIALLY WILL BE ABLE TO ABSORB THE LIQUID. WARMER
TEMPERATURES LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO FURTHER
EROSION OF THE SNOWPACK AND RUNOFF. THEREFORE, RISES ON STREAMS
AND RIVERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH ICE MOVEMENT.
THE BIGGER CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE EXPECTED WARMUP FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK THAT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES TOWARD 60 DEGREES IN MANY
AREAS. IN ADDITION, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS. BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORABLE IN THAT THEY RESULT IN A "PAUSE" IN RUNOFF AND SLOW
RIVER RISES. WITH THE LONG STRETCH OF MILD AND ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES, SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT AND RUNOFF WILL CAUSE WATER
LEVELS TO RISE ON AREA WATERWAYS AND COULD CAUSE ICE TO MOVE AND
POTENTIALLY JAM. THIS COULD LEAD TO ICE JAM FLOODING. OUR MORE
CENTRAL RIVERS, INCLUDING THE PENOBSCOT AND PISCATAQUIS AND THEIR
TRIBUTARIES, HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ICE MOVEMENT EARLY
NEXT WEEK. FURTHER NORTH, ALONG THE ST JOHN AND AROOSTOOK RIVERS, THE
ICE IS STRONGER AND OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO
FREEZING, WHICH COULD DELAY POTENTIAL BREAKUP UNTIL LATE IN THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO INDICATE A
POTENTIAL HEAVIER RAIN EVENT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MEZ001>006-010-031.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
MEZ011-015>017-032.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ029-
030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050-
051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FARRAR/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...FARRAR/HASTINGS/HASTINGS
MARINE...FARRAR/HASTINGS/HASTINGS
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1252 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.AVIATION...
STRONG WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 30 KNOTS AND LOWER THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND AROUND 20 KNOTS BY SUNSET. WINDS WILL REMAIN
OUT OF THE WESTERLY QUADRANT THROUGH THE PERIOD. VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS SW-TO-NE EROSION OF STRATUS ALONG WITH THINNING DUE TO DIURNAL
MIXING. MIXING AND DRY ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO MID-AFTN
EVENTUALLY SCOURING OUT LOW CLOUD AND GIVING WAY TO VFR.
A COMAPCT WAVE OVER SOUTHEAST MN IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS
EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTN. THIS WAVE IS
MODELED TO TRACK ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND BRING A VERY BRIEF PERIOD
OF SHOWERS TO THE DETROIT AREA 23Z-03Z. UPSTREAM SURFACE OBS SUGGEST
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. BY THE
TIME SHOWERS DEPART, THE COLUMN SHOULD BE STABILIZED ALLOWING FOR
DECOUPLING AND AN END TO WIND GUSTS. WIND MAY HOLD ON JUST AN HOUR
OR TWO LONGER FOR KFNT/KMBS.
FOR DTW...GUSTS PEAKED EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, GUSTS AROUND 30
KNOTS WILL CONTINUE WITH WINDS WSW WINDS HOLDING VERY NEAR CROSSWIND
THRESHOLDS THROUGH ABOUT 22Z. TARGET PERIOD FOR LIGHT SHOWERS IS
FOCUSED ON 01-02Z WITH MVFR CIG FOR AN EXTRA HOUR ON EITHER SIDE.
WINDS WILL ALSO BRIEFLY VEER TOWARD THE NORTHWEST DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CIGS AOB 5KFT.
* HIGH IN EXCEEDING CROSSWIND THRESHOLDS FROM 260-280 DEGREES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 952 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
UPDATE...
ALL IS WELL WITH THE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
TODAY WITH NUMEROUS SITES ALREADY VERIFYING BY 13Z THIS MORNING. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY EASE 18-00Z AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
FROM THE STRAITS THIS MORNING INTO WESTERN QUEBEC THIS EVENING. IN
ADDITION, A VERY COMPACT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES OVER MN WILL IMPINGE ON THE
RESIDENT LOW PRESSURE FIELD BY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ACTUALLY
REDUCE THE PGF FROM WEST TO EAST AS IT SUPPRESSES THE ANTICYCLONE TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST. A ROUND OF EVENING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THIS WAVE TRANSLATES FROM MINNEAPOLIS THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN 00-03Z.
IN THE VERY NEAR TERM, HOWEVER, POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER END WIND GUSTS
REMAINS A CONCERN THROUGH ABOUT 18Z. WHILE THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SETUP
FAVORS WIDESPREAD GUSTS AROUND 40 KTS, ACTIVE CONVECTION WITHIN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MAY LEAD TO MORE EFFICIENT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT. OBSERVATIONS WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO
ENSURE GUSTS DON`T GET OUT OF HAND, BUT ATTM THERE ARE NO IMMEDIATE
PLANS TO ALTER THE INHERITED WIND ADVISORY. A FRESH ROUND OF
GRIDS/ZONES WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 349 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH PULLED THE ACTIVE WARM FRONT UP
THROUGH SE MI LATE THURSDAY IS NOW LOCATED OVER NORTHERN LOWER MI.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NE THROUGH THE DAY. LINGERING
CONVECTION OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB SHOULD LIFT OUT OF THE
AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS AREA HAS SPLIT FROM THE COLD
FRONTAL CONVECTION LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH OVER IN/OH...WHICH HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED BY THE HRRR FOR THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO POP UP IN THE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS BUT NOT MORE THAN
A CHANCE POP FOR ANY LOCATION.
AS THE CONVECTION BEGINS TO WANE...ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD WINDS.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT HAS BEEN ABLE TO GUST UP TO
25 KNOTS OVER SW LOWER MI. THIS WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE STATE OVER US
PRIOR TO 09Z. WINDS WILL VEER TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND
INCREASE FURTHER AS THE TIGHT E/W PRESSURE GRADIENT LIFTS UP INTO SE
MI. THESE POST FRONTAL WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING TO AROUND 35 KNOTS
THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS IA/IL/MO WITH AN INITIAL POP RIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT CLOSER TO 40 KNOTS. MODELS SHOW THIS TREND CONTINUING
ACROSS SOUTHERN MI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL DIURNAL
SUPPORT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP MIXED LAYER DEVELOPING BEHIND
THE FRONT UP TO AROUND 850MB WITH STEEP LL LAPSE RATES DUE TO
IMPRESSIVE CAA BETWEEN THE SFC AND 700MB. IN THIS MIXED
LAYER...MODELS ARE SHOWING WINDS OF AROUND 50 KNOTS AS LOW AS 925MB
IN THE COLUMN PEAKING FROM 09-14Z BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING. THIS
SHOULD PRODUCE WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS AROUND 40-50 MPH AT THE SFC
THUS THE WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE DOES
REMAIN THE CHANCE OF HIGHER GUSTS REACHING THE SFC...ESPECIALLY IF A
FEW SHALLOW CONVECTIVE CELLS CAN DEVELOP AS THE LINGERING TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. AT THIS POINT WILL HOLD WITH THE ADVISORY AND ALLOW
THE NEXT SHIFT TO ASSESS TRENDS HEADING INTO THE DIURNAL CYCLE. A
SHORT FUSE HIGH WIND WARNING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SLOWLY
WANING TOWARD THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING A COMPACT
VORT MAX DIVING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING TROUGH AND TRACKING
ACROSS THE MI/OH BORDER BETWEEN ABOUT 00-06Z SATURDAY. ADDED A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THIS PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SE MI WILL BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THE COURSE OF THE
WEEKEND...ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE FCST TO BUILD FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SUPPORT A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CORE OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WILL
PUSH OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY BUT WILL STILL SUPPORT
DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S. LOW LEVEL WARMING WILL GET A BOOST ON
SUNDAY UNDER STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS. THIS AND
DECENT MIXING DEPTHS SUGGEST DAYTIME HIGHS ON SUN WILL RISE WELL
INTO THE 60S.
A FAST MOVING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO EJECT OUT OF THE
GULF OF ALASKA UPPER LOW AND TRACK ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE LATEST
GFS AND ECMWF IN BRINGING THE ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT ACROSS SE MI MON
MORNING. THE BETTER LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS ARE SHOWN TO PASS ACROSS
THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION. FORECAST AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID LEVEL
WAVE AS IT ROTATES INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WILL HOWEVER OFFER AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR INCREASED LOW LEVEL SW FLOW TO ADVECT A PLUME OF
DEEP MOISTURE INTO LOWER MI ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT. THIS WILL
REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON
MORNING.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT. DAYTIME HEATING AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL HOWEVER BOOST
MIXING DEPTHS AND SHOULD REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS INTO THE 60S
BOTH MON AND TUES. REBOUNDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION
AND DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE OF
MID APRIL SEASONAL NORMS DURING THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE AREAS TODAY. A DEEP
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON THIS
MORNING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS SYSTEM IS NOW DRIVING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. OBSERVATIONS ON THE COLD SIDE OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE IN
STRONG SUPPORT OF WIDESPREAD GALES. GALES WILL STEADILY DIMINISH
TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH WILL INFLUENCE THE REGION
DURING THE WEEKEND AND WILL SUSTAIN LIGHT WINDS ON SATURDAY. DESPITE
A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WIND ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH DEPARTS TO THE
MID ATLANTIC...STRONG STABILITY OVER THE COLD LAKES WILL KEEP WIND
SPEEDS BELOW 20 KNOTS.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ047>049-053>055-
060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ363-421-422-
441>443-462>464.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ361-362.
LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ444.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....JVC
UPDATE.......JVC
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
952 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.UPDATE...
ALL IS WELL WITH THE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
TODAY WITH NUMEROUS SITES ALREADY VERIFYING BY 13Z THIS MORNING. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY EASE 18-00Z AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
FROM THE STRAITS THIS MORNING INTO WESTERN QUEBEC THIS EVENING. IN
ADDITION, A VERY COMPACT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES OVER MN WILL IMPINGE ON THE
RESIDENT LOW PRESSURE FIELD BY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ACTUALLY
REDUCE THE PGF FROM WEST TO EAST AS IT SUPPRESSES THE ANTICYCLONE TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST. A ROUND OF EVENING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THIS WAVE TRANSLATES FROM MINNEAPOLIS THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN 00-03Z.
IN THE VERY NEAR TERM, HOWEVER, POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER END WIND GUSTS
REMAINS A CONCERN THROUGH ABOUT 18Z. WHILE THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SETUP
FAVORS WIDESPREAD GUSTS AROUND 40 KTS, ACTIVE CONVECTION WITHIN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MAY LEAD TO MORE EFFICIENT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT. OBSERVATIONS WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO
ENSURE GUSTS DON`T GET OUT OF HAND, BUT ATTM THERE ARE NO IMMEDIATE
PLANS TO ALTER THE INHERITED WIND ADVISORY. A FRESH ROUND OF
GRIDS/ZONES WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 651 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT...SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE INCREASED
RAPIDLY. WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 KNOTS OCCURRED JUST BEHIND THE FRONT
BEFORE SETTLING BACK DOWN AROUND 30-35 KNOTS. LOOK FOR PEAK GUSTS TO
RAMP UP AGAIN THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS DEEP
MIXING OCCURS. GUSTS REACHING OR EXCEEDING 40 KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST
WILL BE EXPECTED BEFORE DROPPING OFF THIS EVENING. CIGS WILL START
OFF MVFR BEFORE LIFTING INTO LOW VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON.
FOR DTW...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. SOME
GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 KNOTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. CIGS WILL START OFF
MVFR BUT AS MIXING DEPTHS RISE SO WILL THE CIGS...REACHING LOW END
VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILINGS AOB 5KFT INTO THE AFTERNOON...LOW AFTER 20Z.
* HIGH IN EXCEEDING CROSSWIND THRESHOLDS FROM 260-280 DEGREES
FRIDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 349 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH PULLED THE ACTIVE WARM FRONT UP
THROUGH SE MI LATE THURSDAY IS NOW LOCATED OVER NORTHERN LOWER MI.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NE THROUGH THE DAY. LINGERING
CONVECTION OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB SHOULD LIFT OUT OF THE
AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS AREA HAS SPLIT FROM THE COLD
FRONTAL CONVECTION LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH OVER IN/OH...WHICH HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED BY THE HRRR FOR THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO POP UP IN THE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS BUT NOT MORE THAN
A CHANCE POP FOR ANY LOCATION.
AS THE CONVECTION BEGINS TO WANE...ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD WINDS.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT HAS BEEN ABLE TO GUST UP TO
25 KNOTS OVER SW LOWER MI. THIS WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE STATE OVER US
PRIOR TO 09Z. WINDS WILL VEER TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND
INCREASE FURTHER AS THE TIGHT E/W PRESSURE GRADIENT LIFTS UP INTO SE
MI. THESE POST FRONTAL WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING TO AROUND 35 KNOTS
THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS IA/IL/MO WITH AN INITIAL POP RIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT CLOSER TO 40 KNOTS. MODELS SHOW THIS TREND CONTINUING
ACROSS SOUTHERN MI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL DIURNAL
SUPPORT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP MIXED LAYER DEVELOPING BEHIND
THE FRONT UP TO AROUND 850MB WITH STEEP LL LAPSE RATES DUE TO
IMPRESSIVE CAA BETWEEN THE SFC AND 700MB. IN THIS MIXED
LAYER...MODELS ARE SHOWING WINDS OF AROUND 50 KNOTS AS LOW AS 925MB
IN THE COLUMN PEAKING FROM 09-14Z BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING. THIS
SHOULD PRODUCE WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS AROUND 40-50 MPH AT THE SFC
THUS THE WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE DOES
REMAIN THE CHANCE OF HIGHER GUSTS REACHING THE SFC...ESPECIALLY IF A
FEW SHALLOW CONVECTIVE CELLS CAN DEVELOP AS THE LINGERING TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. AT THIS POINT WILL HOLD WITH THE ADVISORY AND ALLOW
THE NEXT SHIFT TO ASSESS TRENDS HEADING INTO THE DIURNAL CYCLE. A
SHORT FUSE HIGH WIND WARNING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SLOWLY
WANING TOWARD THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING A COMPACT
VORT MAX DIVING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING TROUGH AND TRACKING
ACROSS THE MI/OH BORDER BETWEEN ABOUT 00-06Z SATURDAY. ADDED A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THIS PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SE MI WILL BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THE COURSE OF THE
WEEKEND...ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE FCST TO BUILD FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SUPPORT A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CORE OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WILL
PUSH OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY BUT WILL STILL SUPPORT
DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S. LOW LEVEL WARMING WILL GET A BOOST ON
SUNDAY UNDER STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS. THIS AND
DECENT MIXING DEPTHS SUGGEST DAYTIME HIGHS ON SUN WILL RISE WELL
INTO THE 60S.
A FAST MOVING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO EJECT OUT OF THE
GULF OF ALASKA UPPER LOW AND TRACK ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE LATEST
GFS AND ECMWF IN BRINGING THE ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT ACROSS SE MI MON
MORNING. THE BETTER LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS ARE SHOWN TO PASS ACROSS
THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION. FORECAST AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID LEVEL
WAVE AS IT ROTATES INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WILL HOWEVER OFFER AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR INCREASED LOW LEVEL SW FLOW TO ADVECT A PLUME OF
DEEP MOISTURE INTO LOWER MI ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT. THIS WILL
REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON
MORNING.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT. DAYTIME HEATING AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL HOWEVER BOOST
MIXING DEPTHS AND SHOULD REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS INTO THE 60S
BOTH MON AND TUES. REBOUNDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION
AND DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE OF
MID APRIL SEASONAL NORMS DURING THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE AREAS TODAY. A DEEP
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON THIS
MORNING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS SYSTEM IS NOW DRIVING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. OBSERVATIONS ON THE COLD SIDE OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE IN
STRONG SUPPORT OF WIDESPREAD GALES. GALES WILL STEADILY DIMINISH
TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH WILL INFLUENCE THE REGION
DURING THE WEEKEND AND WILL SUSTAIN LIGHT WINDS ON SATURDAY. DESPITE
A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WIND ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH DEPARTS TO THE
MID ATLANTIC...STRONG STABILITY OVER THE COLD LAKES WILL KEEP WIND
SPEEDS BELOW 20 KNOTS.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ047>049-053>055-
060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ363-421-422-
441>443-462>464.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ361-362.
LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ444.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......JVC
AVIATION.....DRK
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
651 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.AVIATION...
IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT...SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE INCREASED
RAPIDLY. WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 KNOTS OCCURRED JUST BEHIND THE FRONT
BEFORE SETTLING BACK DOWN AROUND 30-35 KNOTS. LOOK FOR PEAK GUSTS TO
RAMP UP AGAIN THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS DEEP
MIXING OCCURS. GUSTS REACHING OR EXCEEDING 40 KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST
WILL BE EXPECTED BEFORE DROPPING OFF THIS EVENING. CIGS WILL START
OFF MVFR BEFORE LIFTING INTO LOW VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON.
FOR DTW...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. SOME
GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 KNOTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. CIGS WILL START OFF
MVFR BUT AS MIXING DEPTHS RISE SO WILL THE CIGS...REACHING LOW END
VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILINGS AOB 5KFT INTO THE AFTERNOON...LOW AFTER 20Z.
* HIGH IN EXCEEDING CROSSWIND THRESHOLDS FROM 260-280 DEGREES
FRIDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 349 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH PULLED THE ACTIVE WARM FRONT UP
THROUGH SE MI LATE THURSDAY IS NOW LOCATED OVER NORTHERN LOWER MI.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NE THROUGH THE DAY. LINGERING
CONVECTION OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB SHOULD LIFT OUT OF THE
AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS AREA HAS SPLIT FROM THE COLD
FRONTAL CONVECTION LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH OVER IN/OH...WHICH HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED BY THE HRRR FOR THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO POP UP IN THE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS BUT NOT MORE THAN
A CHANCE POP FOR ANY LOCATION.
AS THE CONVECTION BEGINS TO WANE...ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD WINDS.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT HAS BEEN ABLE TO GUST UP TO
25 KNOTS OVER SW LOWER MI. THIS WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE STATE OVER US
PRIOR TO 09Z. WINDS WILL VEER TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND
INCREASE FURTHER AS THE TIGHT E/W PRESSURE GRADIENT LIFTS UP INTO SE
MI. THESE POST FRONTAL WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING TO AROUND 35 KNOTS
THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS IA/IL/MO WITH AN INITIAL POP RIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT CLOSER TO 40 KNOTS. MODELS SHOW THIS TREND CONTINUING
ACROSS SOUTHERN MI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL DIURNAL
SUPPORT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP MIXED LAYER DEVELOPING BEHIND
THE FRONT UP TO AROUND 850MB WITH STEEP LL LAPSE RATES DUE TO
IMPRESSIVE CAA BETWEEN THE SFC AND 700MB. IN THIS MIXED
LAYER...MODELS ARE SHOWING WINDS OF AROUND 50 KNOTS AS LOW AS 925MB
IN THE COLUMN PEAKING FROM 09-14Z BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING. THIS
SHOULD PRODUCE WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS AROUND 40-50 MPH AT THE SFC
THUS THE WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE DOES
REMAIN THE CHANCE OF HIGHER GUSTS REACHING THE SFC...ESPECIALLY IF A
FEW SHALLOW CONVECTIVE CELLS CAN DEVELOP AS THE LINGERING TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. AT THIS POINT WILL HOLD WITH THE ADVISORY AND ALLOW
THE NEXT SHIFT TO ASSESS TRENDS HEADING INTO THE DIURNAL CYCLE. A
SHORT FUSE HIGH WIND WARNING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SLOWLY
WANING TOWARD THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING A COMPACT
VORT MAX DIVING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING TROUGH AND TRACKING
ACROSS THE MI/OH BORDER BETWEEN ABOUT 00-06Z SATURDAY. ADDED A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THIS PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SE MI WILL BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THE COURSE OF THE
WEEKEND...ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE FCST TO BUILD FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SUPPORT A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CORE OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WILL
PUSH OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY BUT WILL STILL SUPPORT
DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S. LOW LEVEL WARMING WILL GET A BOOST ON
SUNDAY UNDER STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS. THIS AND
DECENT MIXING DEPTHS SUGGEST DAYTIME HIGHS ON SUN WILL RISE WELL
INTO THE 60S.
A FAST MOVING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO EJECT OUT OF THE
GULF OF ALASKA UPPER LOW AND TRACK ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE LATEST
GFS AND ECMWF IN BRINGING THE ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT ACROSS SE MI MON
MORNING. THE BETTER LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS ARE SHOWN TO PASS ACROSS
THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION. FORECAST AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID LEVEL
WAVE AS IT ROTATES INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WILL HOWEVER OFFER AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR INCREASED LOW LEVEL SW FLOW TO ADVECT A PLUME OF
DEEP MOISTURE INTO LOWER MI ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT. THIS WILL
REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON
MORNING.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT. DAYTIME HEATING AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL HOWEVER BOOST
MIXING DEPTHS AND SHOULD REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS INTO THE 60S
BOTH MON AND TUES. REBOUNDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION
AND DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE OF
MID APRIL SEASONAL NORMS DURING THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE AREAS TODAY. A DEEP
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON THIS
MORNING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS SYSTEM IS NOW DRIVING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. OBSERVATIONS ON THE COLD SIDE OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE IN
STRONG SUPPORT OF WIDESPREAD GALES. GALES WILL STEADILY DIMINISH
TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH WILL INFLUENCE THE REGION
DURING THE WEEKEND AND WILL SUSTAIN LIGHT WINDS ON SATURDAY. DESPITE
A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WIND ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH DEPARTS TO THE
MID ATLANTIC...STRONG STABILITY OVER THE COLD LAKES WILL KEEP WIND
SPEEDS BELOW 20 KNOTS.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ047>049-053>055-
060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ363-421-422-
441>443-462>464.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
LHZ361-362.
LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ444.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....DRK
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
349 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH PULLED THE ACTIVE WARM FRONT UP
THROUGH SE MI LATE THURSDAY IS NOW LOCATED OVER NORTHERN LOWER MI.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NE THROUGH THE DAY. LINGERING
CONVECTION OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB SHOULD LIFT OUT OF THE
AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS AREA HAS SPLIT FROM THE COLD
FRONTAL CONVECTION LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH OVER IN/OH...WHICH HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED BY THE HRRR FOR THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO POP UP IN THE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS BUT NOT MORE THAN
A CHANCE POP FOR ANY LOCATION.
AS THE CONVECTION BEGINS TO WANE...ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD WINDS.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT HAS BEEN ABLE TO GUST UP TO
25 KNOTS OVER SW LOWER MI. THIS WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE STATE OVER US
PRIOR TO 09Z. WINDS WILL VEER TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND
INCREASE FURTHER AS THE TIGHT E/W PRESSURE GRADIENT LIFTS UP INTO SE
MI. THESE POST FRONTAL WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING TO AROUND 35 KNOTS
THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS IA/IL/MO WITH AN INITIAL POP RIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT CLOSER TO 40 KNOTS. MODELS SHOW THIS TREND CONTINUING
ACROSS SOUTHERN MI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL DIURNAL
SUPPORT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP MIXED LAYER DEVELOPING BEHIND
THE FRONT UP TO AROUND 850MB WITH STEEP LL LAPSE RATES DUE TO
IMPRESSIVE CAA BETWEEN THE SFC AND 700MB. IN THIS MIXED
LAYER...MODELS ARE SHOWING WINDS OF AROUND 50 KNOTS AS LOW AS 925MB
IN THE COLUMN PEAKING FROM 09-14Z BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING. THIS
SHOULD PRODUCE WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS AROUND 40-50 MPH AT THE SFC
THUS THE WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE DOES
REMAIN THE CHANCE OF HIGHER GUSTS REACHING THE SFC...ESPECIALLY IF A
FEW SHALLOW CONVECTIVE CELLS CAN DEVELOP AS THE LINGERING TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. AT THIS POINT WILL HOLD WITH THE ADVISORY AND ALLOW
THE NEXT SHIFT TO ASSESS TRENDS HEADING INTO THE DIURNAL CYCLE. A
SHORT FUSE HIGH WIND WARNING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SLOWLY
WANING TOWARD THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING A COMPACT
VORT MAX DIVING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING TROUGH AND TRACKING
ACROSS THE MI/OH BORDER BETWEEN ABOUT 00-06Z SATURDAY. ADDED A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THIS PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE.
&&
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SE MI WILL BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THE COURSE OF THE
WEEKEND...ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE FCST TO BUILD FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SUPPORT A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CORE OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WILL
PUSH OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY BUT WILL STILL SUPPORT
DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S. LOW LEVEL WARMING WILL GET A BOOST ON
SUNDAY UNDER STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS. THIS AND
DECENT MIXING DEPTHS SUGGEST DAYTIME HIGHS ON SUN WILL RISE WELL
INTO THE 60S.
A FAST MOVING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO EJECT OUT OF THE
GULF OF ALASKA UPPER LOW AND TRACK ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE LATEST
GFS AND ECMWF IN BRINGING THE ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT ACROSS SE MI MON
MORNING. THE BETTER LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS ARE SHOWN TO PASS ACROSS
THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION. FORECAST AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID LEVEL
WAVE AS IT ROTATES INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WILL HOWEVER OFFER AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR INCREASED LOW LEVEL SW FLOW TO ADVECT A PLUME OF
DEEP MOISTURE INTO LOWER MI ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT. THIS WILL
REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON
MORNING.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT. DAYTIME HEATING AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL HOWEVER BOOST
MIXING DEPTHS AND SHOULD REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS INTO THE 60S
BOTH MON AND TUES. REBOUNDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION
AND DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE OF
MID APRIL SEASONAL NORMS DURING THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE AREAS TODAY. A DEEP
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON THIS
MORNING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS SYSTEM IS NOW DRIVING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. OBSERVATIONS ON THE COLD SIDE OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE IN
STRONG SUPPORT OF WIDESPREAD GALES. GALES WILL STEADILY DIMINISH
TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH WILL INFLUENCE THE REGION
DURING THE WEEKEND AND WILL SUSTAIN LIGHT WINDS ON SATURDAY. DESPITE
A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WIND ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH DEPARTS TO THE
MID ATLANTIC...STRONG STABILITY OVER THE COLD LAKES WILL KEEP WIND
SPEEDS BELOW 20 KNOTS.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 125 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
COMPLEX FORECAST WITH A COLD FRONT BRINGING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN...FOLLOWED BY STRONG
GUSTY WINDS. THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
HAS BEEN WEAKENING DURING THE TREK EAST BUT NEW DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS COMING NORTH FROM INDIANA WILL WARRANT A TEMPO FOR SHOWERS
FOR THE DETROIT TAFS AND PTK. MBS WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH STORMS
AND FNT IS ON THE BUBBLE REGARDING THE LINE OF STORM AS THEY MAY
WEAKEN TO SHOWERS BY THE TIME THEY APPROACH THE TAF SITE. ONCE THE
COLD FRONT PASSES EARLY THIS MORNING THE WINDS WILL INCREASE
RAPIDLY. LOOK FOR EARLY AFTERNOON PEAK GUSTS REACHING OR EXCEEDING
40 KNOTS AFTER 12Z BEFORE DROPPING OFF IN THE EVENING.
FOR DTW...LOW PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER
IN THE 08-11Z TIMEFRAME. SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER THE FROPA AROUND 10Z AND WILL GUST TO 25-30KTS.
WINDS WILL FURTHER VEER TO WESTERLY DURING THE DAY FRI...GUSTING TO
40 KTS OR HIGHER.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* MEDIUM FOR CEILINGS AOB 5KFT THIS MORNING...LOW AFTER 15Z.
* LOW THAT TSTORMS WILL IMPACT KDTW FROM 06-10Z.
* HIGH IN EXCEEDING CROSSWIND THRESHOLDS FROM 260-280 DEGREES
FRIDAY.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ047>049-053>055-
060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ363-421-422-
441>443-462>464.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
LHZ361-362.
LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ444.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC
AVIATION.....DRK
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
154 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE PASSING JUST WEST OF MICHIGAN WILL BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY
RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A
PLEASANT WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW
TORNADOES WILL INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING... MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF I-96. THE THREAT WILL END SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WARM UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO OUR SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO
THE AREA AFTER 5 PM NOW THAT THE POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER KS/NE IS
EJECTING NORTHEAST. THIS FEATURE TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
MOVES TOWARD WISCONSIN LATER THIS EVENING... LEADING TO A DEEPENING
OF THE SFC LOW AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE MILWAUKEE AREA.
THIS SYNOPTIC SET UP WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT/TRIPLE POINT EXTENDING
EAST OF THE DEEPENING SFC LOW LEADS TO STRONG CONCERNS FOR ROTATING
CELLS AND SPIN UPS NEAR THE WARM FRONT THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES INTO
SWRN LWR MI... DUE TO HIGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES AND POTENTIALLY
AVAILABLE UPDRAFT HELICITY. TORNADO WATCHES ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT
JUST UPSTREAM OF SW LWR MI AND THE LATEST WATCH... 41... HAS A MEAN
STORM MOTION VECTOR OF 240 DEGREES AT 40 KTS.
IT SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT TO BELIEVE WE WILL SEE SFC BASED
CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD 00Z BASED
ON LATEST RUC GUIDANCE AND MESOANALYSIS TO OUR SW.
THE OTHER CONCERN THIS EVENING IS FOR LINES/BOWS TO DEVELOP IN THE
UPSTREAM TORNADO WATCH AREAS AND RACE RAPIDLY EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS
PARTS OF SW MI. THESE FEATURES COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WIND GUSTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
ALTHOUGH ANY STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION WILL END AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT... STRONG SYNOPTIC WIND GUSTS
BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO CONTINUED DEEPENING OF THE SFC LOW OVR NRN
LWR MI WILL LEAD TO SOME GUSTS TO 50 MPH OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WITH HIGH CLOUD BASES UNDER THE UPPER LOW ON
FRIDAY COULD HELP PROMOTE STRONG GUSTS AS WELL. WILL ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THINGS QUIET DOWN CONSIDERABLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER FOR A CHANGE FROM SUNDAY AT LEAST INTO
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. STILL A CHANCE OF A WET STRETCH ON WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY BUT TIMING IS REALLY UNCERTAIN.
OVERALL PATTER IS SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE WITH GOOD NWP AGREEMENT ON
WEST COAST TROF AND EAST COAST RIDGE DEVELOPING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SUCH A PATTERN WILL PROVIDE THE WARMTH WITH POSITIVE H85 TEMPS
THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK.
AFTER MID 60S ON SUNDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THINKING IT WILL LIKELY COOL MONDAY BY JUST A FEW DEGREES
OVER SUNDAY AS THE UPSTREAM HIGH IS WEAK AND THERE IS JUST NOT MUCH
OF A PUSH OF COLD AIR. THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY EVENING SO STILL THINKING SCT
SHOWERS ARE A GOOD BET WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ITSELF. IN ANY CASE
IT SHOULD BE A QUICK HITTER AND AT LEAST THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY
WILL BE DRY AND SEASONABLE.
AFTER THAT THERE IS MUCH DISAGREEMENT ON HOW PROGRESSIVE WEST COAST
TROF WILL BE AND HOW MUCH AND WHEN WILL A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
EJECT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN GREAT LAKES.
EACH OF THE PAST FEW DAYS THE GFS/ECM HAVE BEEN DELAYING THE SYSTEM
BY A DAY...YESTERDAY THE SIGNAL WAS FOR A WEDNSDAY EVENT WHILE TODAY
IT IS NOW LOOKING LIKE A THURSDAY EVENT. BASICALLY...THE POTENTIAL
HIS SMEARED OUT IN THE FORECAST WITH CHANCE POPS FOR TUE NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 154 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CLEAR THE EASTERN TAF SITES BY
09Z AND LIKELY WILL NOT IMPACT THE I-94 TAF SITES...MEANING ONLY
LAN SHOULD SEE ANY STORMS FROM WHAT REMAINS OF THIS LINE. THERE IS
A NARROW AREA OF CLEARING BEHIND THE CONVECTION THEN THE MVFR CIGS
WILL FOLLOW MOSTLY AFTER 09Z AND SPREAD WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
CWA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH WEST WINDS OF 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO
35 KNOTS AT TIMES. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
12Z TO 18Z TIME FRAME FROM WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BUT SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
WILL UPGRADE THE GALE WATCH TO A WARNING AS WINDS INCREASE
DRAMATICALLY OUT OF THE WEST LATER TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
ALSO AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL IMPACT LK MI UNTIL AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE DRIER AIR AND STRONG WINDS ARRIVE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 534 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE PAST 15 HOURS IN PORTIONS
OF OTTAWA... KENT... AND OCEANA COUNTIES. 1 TO 2 INCHES HAS FALLEN
IN MANY LAKESHORE AND CENTRAL MICHIGAN COMMUNITIES... AND A
QUARTER INCH TO 1 INCH IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. A FEW RIVERS HAVE
BEGUN RISING. THE ROGUE BELOW ROCKFORD IS ALREADY ABOVE BANKFULL.
SEVERAL OTHER RIVERS ARE FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE OR CLOSE TO BANKFULL.
AS SUCH... RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED IN ADDITION TO
THE AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY. RIVERS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED TONIGHT
AS MORE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ037>040-043>046-
050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...COBB
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...MEADE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1251 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
HAD A REPORT OF RAIN/SLEET/SNOW 3N OF BRD FROM AN OBSERVER. HAVE
ADDED MIXED WORDING TO THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. VERY SHARP VORT MAX WAS MOVING THROUGH THIS AREA ATTM AND
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. REMOVED THE MENTION OF SNOW OVER NW
WI AS SHORT WAVE THAT WAS AFFECTING THIS AREA WAS DEPARTING. REST
OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS WERE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA AT
07Z. ONE WAS LOCATED IN NW MN AND THE SECOND IN CENTRAL WI. THEIR
ASSOCIATED TROFS WERE ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL AND DRIVING
SOME PCPN...MAINLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
REGION. THE LAST OF THE SNOW WAS OVER THE FAR EASTERN EDGE OF THE NW
WI FORECAST AREA WHERE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS WERE FOUND. THE SNOW IN NW
WI WILL EXIT THE AREA BY 815Z AND HAVE CANCELED THE ADVISORY WITH
NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE FOUND UNTIL 15Z OVER THIS SAME AREA. NOT EXPECTING ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EVEN THOUGH A NW WIND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL OCCUR. THE REASON...LOW LEVEL WAA IN THE 1000-900MB LEVEL WILL
OFFSET ANY POTENTIAL ACCUMULATION. WILL MAINTAIN THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY OVER SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS AND CARLTON COUNTIES WITH VSBYS
BELOW FIVE EIGHTHS OF A MILE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z.
THE UPPER LOW/TROF IN NW MN IS PROGGED TO MOVE TO SE MN BY 18Z
TODAY. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIDESPREAD PCPN...BUT DO HAVE SOME POPS
FROM 20Z TO 22Z OVER SOUTHERN SAWYER COUNTY WHERE ENOUGH FORCING
FROM THE PASSING UPPER TROF MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS. THIS IS SEEN
IN THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL...AS WELL AS THE 00Z RUN OF
THE ARW AND NMM. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING COVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND SLIP OFF TO
THE EAST ON SATURDAY. WEAK WAA IS ON TAP FOR TONIGHT AND A BIT
STRONGER ON SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF CROSSES INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NO PCPN IS EXPECTED AS COLUMN RH IS LESS
THAN 50 PERCENT. WARMEST DAY IN A LONG TIME SATURDAY WITH MAX TEMPS
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S. COOLEST OVER THE ARROWHEAD
WHERE A COOL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE
LOWER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL COMBINE WITH A
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...MODEST
WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE MID LEVELS AND INTERACT WITH AN
INCOMING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHLAND. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
OVER NRN MN WITH ML CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 250 J/KG AND
ROUGHLY 30-40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. CONDITIONS COULD BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH SMALL HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS. MUCH NEEDED RAIN WILL ALSO COME FROM THIS SYSTEM. COULD SEE
WIDESPREAD QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN WITH THIS FRONT.
BEHIND THE FRONT...COLD AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NW OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE TRIGGERED OVER
THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO N-CENTRAL WI MON MORNING...BUT THE GENERAL
TREND SHOULD BE DRYING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A DOME OF WARM
AND DRY AIR BUILDS IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. ANOTHER WEAK
FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH A
RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR POSSIBLE THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
REALLY BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION LATER THIS
WEEK...SO FOLLOWED THIS TREND AND HEDGED POPS BACK A BIT FROM
BLENDED GUIDANCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
THE PATTERN HAS ALSO SHIFTED SUCH THAT THE PERSISTENT NE WINDS OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR DO NOT APPEAR TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE WEEK...WHICH WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TWIN PORTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT ALL THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTHLAND OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST. COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL MEAN THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. COULD ALSO BE SOME AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING SPRINKLES IN SPOTS. THE MOST CLOUD COVER WILL BE
EAST OF A KINL TO KBRD LINE. THE CLOUDS WILL BE LARGELY VFR BUT
SOME LOCAL MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A TIME. SKIES WILL CLEAR
OVERNIGHT...AND WINDS WILL DECREASE. WINDS WILL AGAIN START TO
PICK UP ON SATURDAY...WITH SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 50 31 60 44 / 0 0 0 20
INL 50 29 64 45 / 0 0 0 30
BRD 53 31 65 46 / 70 0 0 20
HYR 50 29 60 44 / 10 0 0 10
ASX 50 30 61 43 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...DAP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
638 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
HAD A REPORT OF RAIN/SLEET/SNOW 3N OF BRD FROM AN OBSERVER. HAVE
ADDED MIXED WORDING TO THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. VERY SHARP VORT MAX WAS MOVING THROUGH THIS AREA ATTM AND
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. REMOVED THE MENTION OF SNOW OVER NW
WI AS SHORT WAVE THAT WAS AFFECTING THIS AREA WAS DEPARTING. REST
OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS WERE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA AT
07Z. ONE WAS LOCATED IN NW MN AND THE SECOND IN CENTRAL WI. THEIR
ASSOCIATED TROFS WERE ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL AND DRIVING
SOME PCPN...MAINLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
REGION. THE LAST OF THE SNOW WAS OVER THE FAR EASTERN EDGE OF THE NW
WI FORECAST AREA WHERE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS WERE FOUND. THE SNOW IN NW
WI WILL EXIT THE AREA BY 815Z AND HAVE CANCELED THE ADVISORY WITH
NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE FOUND UNTIL 15Z OVER THIS SAME AREA. NOT EXPECTING ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EVEN THOUGH A NW WIND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL OCCUR. THE REASON...LOW LEVEL WAA IN THE 1000-900MB LEVEL WILL
OFFSET ANY POTENTIAL ACCUMULATION. WILL MAINTAIN THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY OVER SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS AND CARLTON COUNTIES WITH VSBYS
BELOW FIVE EIGHTHS OF A MILE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z.
THE UPPER LOW/TROF IN NW MN IS PROGGED TO MOVE TO SE MN BY 18Z
TODAY. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIDESPREAD PCPN...BUT DO HAVE SOME POPS
FROM 20Z TO 22Z OVER SOUTHERN SAWYER COUNTY WHERE ENOUGH FORCING
FROM THE PASSING UPPER TROF MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS. THIS IS SEEN
IN THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL...AS WELL AS THE 00Z RUN OF
THE ARW AND NMM. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING COVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND SLIP OFF TO
THE EAST ON SATURDAY. WEAK WAA IS ON TAP FOR TONIGHT AND A BIT
STRONGER ON SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF CROSSES INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NO PCPN IS EXPECTED AS COLUMN RH IS LESS
THAN 50 PERCENT. WARMEST DAY IN A LONG TIME SATURDAY WITH MAX TEMPS
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S. COOLEST OVER THE ARROWHEAD
WHERE A COOL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE
LOWER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL COMBINE WITH A
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...MODEST
WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE MID LEVELS AND INTERACT WITH AN
INCOMING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHLAND. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
OVER NRN MN WITH ML CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 250 J/KG AND
ROUGHLY 30-40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. CONDITIONS COULD BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH SMALL HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS. MUCH NEEDED RAIN WILL ALSO COME FROM THIS SYSTEM. COULD SEE
WIDESPREAD QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN WITH THIS FRONT.
BEHIND THE FRONT...COLD AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NW OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE TRIGGERED OVER
THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO N-CENTRAL WI MON MORNING...BUT THE GENERAL
TREND SHOULD BE DRYING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A DOME OF WARM
AND DRY AIR BUILDS IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. ANOTHER WEAK
FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH A
RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR POSSIBLE THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
REALLY BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION LATER THIS
WEEK...SO FOLLOWED THIS TREND AND HEDGED POPS BACK A BIT FROM
BLENDED GUIDANCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
THE PATTERN HAS ALSO SHIFTED SUCH THAT THE PERSISTENT NE WINDS OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR DO NOT APPEAR TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE WEEK...WHICH WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TWIN PORTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LINGERING MVFR CIGS AND LIGHT RAIN/SNOW IS
POSSIBLE AROUND BRD THIS MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS QUICKLY
IMPROVING TO VFR INTO THE LATE MORNING. HAVE ALSO ADDED A TEMPO
FOR INL MVFR CIGS AS A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS ATTEMPTS TO PUSH IN FROM
THE WRN ONTARIO. CONDITIONS AROUND HYR WILL ALSO REMAIN IFR/MVFR
THIS MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
NW GUSTS TO 15 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 50 31 60 44 / 0 0 0 20
INL 50 29 64 45 / 0 0 0 30
BRD 53 31 65 46 / 40 0 0 20
HYR 50 29 60 44 / 0 0 0 10
ASX 50 30 61 43 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...BJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
624 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS WERE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA AT
07Z. ONE WAS LOCATED IN NW MN AND THE SECOND IN CENTRAL WI. THEIR
ASSOCIATED TROFS WERE ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL AND DRIVING
SOME PCPN...MAINLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
REGION. THE LAST OF THE SNOW WAS OVER THE FAR EASTERN EDGE OF THE NW
WI FORECAST AREA WHERE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS WERE FOUND. THE SNOW IN NW
WI WILL EXIT THE AREA BY 815Z AND HAVE CANCELED THE ADVISORY WITH
NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE FOUND UNTIL 15Z OVER THIS SAME AREA. NOT EXPECTING ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EVEN THOUGH A NW WIND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL OCCUR. THE REASON...LOW LEVEL WAA IN THE 1000-900MB LEVEL WILL
OFFSET ANY POTENTIAL ACCUMULATION. WILL MAINTAIN THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY OVER SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS AND CARLTON COUNTIES WITH VSBYS
BELOW FIVE EIGHTHS OF A MILE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z.
THE UPPER LOW/TROF IN NW MN IS PROGGED TO MOVE TO SE MN BY 18Z
TODAY. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIDESPREAD PCPN...BUT DO HAVE SOME POPS
FROM 20Z TO 22Z OVER SOUTHERN SAWYER COUNTY WHERE ENOUGH FORCING
FROM THE PASSING UPPER TROF MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS. THIS IS SEEN
IN THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL...AS WELL AS THE 00Z RUN OF
THE ARW AND NMM. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING COVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND SLIP OFF TO
THE EAST ON SATURDAY. WEAK WAA IS ON TAP FOR TONIGHT AND A BIT
STRONGER ON SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF CROSSES INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NO PCPN IS EXPECTED AS COLUMN RH IS LESS
THAN 50 PERCENT. WARMEST DAY IN A LONG TIME SATURDAY WITH MAX TEMPS
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S. COOLEST OVER THE ARROWHEAD
WHERE A COOL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE
LOWER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL COMBINE WITH A
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...MODEST
WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE MID LEVELS AND INTERACT WITH AN
INCOMING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHLAND. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
OVER NRN MN WITH ML CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 250 J/KG AND
ROUGHLY 30-40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. CONDITIONS COULD BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH SMALL HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS. MUCH NEEDED RAIN WILL ALSO COME FROM THIS SYSTEM. COULD SEE
WIDESPREAD QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN WITH THIS FRONT.
BEHIND THE FRONT...COLD AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NW OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE TRIGGERED OVER
THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO N-CENTRAL WI MON MORNING...BUT THE GENERAL
TREND SHOULD BE DRYING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A DOME OF WARM
AND DRY AIR BUILDS IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. ANOTHER WEAK
FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH A
RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR POSSIBLE THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
REALLY BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION LATER THIS
WEEK...SO FOLLOWED THIS TREND AND HEDGED POPS BACK A BIT FROM
BLENDED GUIDANCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
THE PATTERN HAS ALSO SHIFTED SUCH THAT THE PERSISTENT NE WINDS OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR DO NOT APPEAR TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE WEEK...WHICH WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TWIN PORTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LINGERING MVFR CIGS AND LIGHT RAIN/SNOW IS
POSSIBLE AROUND BRD THIS MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS QUICKLY
IMPROVING TO VFR INTO THE LATE MORNING. HAVE ALSO ADDED A TEMPO
FOR INL MVFR CIGS AS A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS ATTEMPTS TO PUSH IN FROM
THE WRN ONTARIO. CONDITIONS AROUND HYR WILL ALSO REMAIN IFR/MVFR
THIS MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
NW GUSTS TO 15 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 50 31 60 44 / 0 0 0 20
INL 50 29 64 45 / 0 0 0 30
BRD 53 31 65 46 / 40 0 0 20
HYR 50 29 60 44 / 10 0 0 10
ASX 50 30 61 43 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...BJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
314 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS WERE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA AT
07Z. ONE WAS LOCATED IN NW MN AND THE SECOND IN CENTRAL WI. THEIR
ASSOCIATED TROFS WERE ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL AND DRIVING
SOME PCPN...MAINLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
REGION. THE LAST OF THE SNOW WAS OVER THE FAR EASTERN EDGE OF THE NW
WI FORECAST AREA WHERE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS WERE FOUND. THE SNOW IN NW
WI WILL EXIT THE AREA BY 815Z AND HAVE CANCELED THE ADVISORY WITH
NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE FOUND UNTIL 15Z OVER THIS SAME AREA. NOT EXPECTING ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EVEN THOUGH A NW WIND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL OCCUR. THE REASON...LOW LEVEL WAA IN THE 1000-900MB LEVEL WILL
OFFSET ANY POTENTIAL ACCUMULATION. WILL MAINTAIN THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY OVER SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS AND CARLTON COUNTIES WITH VSBYS
BELOW FIVE EIGHTHS OF A MILE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z.
THE UPPER LOW/TROF IN NW MN IS PROGGED TO MOVE TO SE MN BY 18Z
TODAY. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIDESPREAD PCPN...BUT DO HAVE SOME POPS
FROM 20Z TO 22Z OVER SOUTHERN SAWYER COUNTY WHERE ENOUGH FORCING
FROM THE PASSING UPPER TROF MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS. THIS IS SEEN
IN THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL...AS WELL AS THE 00Z RUN OF
THE ARW AND NMM. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING COVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND SLIP OFF TO
THE EAST ON SATURDAY. WEAK WAA IS ON TAP FOR TONIGHT AND A BIT
STRONGER ON SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF CROSSES INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NO PCPN IS EXPECTED AS COLUMN RH IS LESS
THAN 50 PERCENT. WARMEST DAY IN A LONG TIME SATURDAY WITH MAX TEMPS
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S. COOLEST OVER THE ARROWHEAD
WHERE A COOL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE
LOWER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL COMBINE WITH A
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...MODEST
WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE MID LEVELS AND INTERACT WITH AN
INCOMING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHLAND. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
OVER NRN MN WITH ML CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 250 J/KG AND
ROUGHLY 30-40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. CONDITIONS COULD BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH SMALL HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS. MUCH NEEDED RAIN WILL ALSO COME FROM THIS SYSTEM. COULD SEE
WIDESPREAD QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN WITH THIS FRONT.
BEHIND THE FRONT...COLD AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NW OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE TRIGGERED OVER
THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO N-CENTRAL WI MON MORNING...BUT THE GENERAL
TREND SHOULD BE DRYING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A DOME OF WARM
AND DRY AIR BUILDS IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. ANOTHER WEAK
FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH A
RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR POSSIBLE THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
REALLY BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION LATER THIS
WEEK...SO FOLLOWED THIS TREND AND HEDGED POPS BACK A BIT FROM
BLENDED GUIDANCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
THE PATTERN HAS ALSO SHIFTED SUCH THAT THE PERSISTENT NE WINDS OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR DO NOT APPEAR TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE WEEK...WHICH WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TWIN PORTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
LIFR CONDITIONS AT DLH WITH DENSE DUE TO E-NE FLOW OFF LAKE. THE
WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE N-NW BY 12Z WHICH IS ALLOW CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14Z. IT IS LIFR-IFR CONDITIONS AT HYR WHICH WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR THEN DROP BACK DOWN TO IFR AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.
AT BRD/INL/HIB...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR WITH POSSIBLE
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES NEAR THE AREA.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID-MORNING FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 50 31 60 44 / 0 0 0 20
INL 50 29 64 45 / 0 0 0 30
BRD 53 31 65 46 / 40 0 0 20
HYR 50 29 60 44 / 10 0 0 10
ASX 50 30 61 43 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ037.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...STEWART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1230 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
UPDATED TO ADD SOME FREEZING RAIN TO THE SNOW IN NW WI. REPORTS
HAVE BEEN RECEIVED THE OCCURRENCE OF THIS PTYPE. REST OF FCST
UNCHANGED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 911 PM CDT CDT THU APR 9 2015
BUSY NIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FIRST CONCERN IS ONGOING SNOW
ADVISORY IN NW WI. THERE IS SOME BANDING OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE
ADVISORY AREA AS INDICATED ON RADAR. THE LATEST REPORTS ARE OF A
QUICK 1-2 INCHES WITH THE SNOW SO FAR. THE TIMING STILL LOOKS GOOD
WITH THE ENDING OF THE SNOW AT HYR BY 04-05Z AND AFTER 06Z POINTS
FURTHER EAST. THERE IS STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FLOWING
INTO THE REGION EVEN WITH THE LARGE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREA IN
SOUTHERN WI/NRN IL.
THE NEXT CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS THE DENSE FOG FROM THE TWIN PORTS
TO SILVER BAY. E-NE WIND IS PUSHING A MOIST FLOW OFF THE LAKE
CAUSING DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP QUICKLY. THE HRRR INDICATES WINDS
WILL PICK UP AND SWITCH BY 12Z FRIDAY. WILL POST A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE TWIN PORTS TO SILVER BAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.
THE LAST CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS A SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA. CANADIAN RADAR INDICATES LIGHT R-/S- FALLING
FROM THE SHORTWAVE. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN THROUGH
CENTRAL MN OVERNIGHT AND MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR THE AREA
FROM BRD TO HYR WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY BRINGING NICE WEATHER FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
YET ANOTHER VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH REGARD TO PRECIPITATION
TYPE...WITH SLEET...SNOW...AND RAIN OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TODAY
AMOUNTED TO A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH. WINTRY PRECIP AMOUNTS
HAVE BEEN GENERALLY LIGHT WITH THE WINTRY PRECIP MOSTLY MELTING AT
THE SURFACE...BUT THERE ARE LIKELY A FEW SLICK SPOTS OUT THERE WITH
TEMPS IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN HOVERING AROUND OR JUST ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK. QUICK BURST OF SNOW EXPECTED IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
THIS EVENING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW IN NORTH-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA LATE TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF TOWARDS FRIDAY WITH
MILD TEMPS AND CLEARING SKIES LATE.
REST OF TODAY...CLEARING IN NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON
AS LIGHT RAIN/SNOW/SLEET MOVES ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD DOWN TO THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR AND EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. PRECIP
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AS THE
AFTERNOON GOES ON...CHANGING FROM RAIN TO A WINTRY MIX. TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM NEAR-FREEZING IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TO IN THE MID 50S
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
TONIGHT...INTENSE SNOWFALL POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHILE A
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX IN NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT WHERE THEY HAVE CLEARED THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND OVERCAST SKIES IN NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...LIGHT RAIN/WINTRY MIX WILL TRANSITION OVER
TO SNOW THIS EVENING. LARGE SCALE LIFT GENERALLY ASSOCIATED WITH JET
COUPLING ALOFT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE RAIN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW QUICKLY AS PRECIPITATION INTENSIFIES THIS EVENING. THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT CONCERN THAT A DRY SLOT ALOFT COULD END PRECIPITATION
FAIRLY QUICKLY...BUT DEPENDING ON WHEN THIS DRY AIR ARRIVES COULD BE
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A DUSTING AND WARNING-LEVEL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
COLLABORATED WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON A MIDDLE GROUND...NOTING
THAT SOME OF THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING PRECIPITATION
ENDING MUCH EARLIER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...THIS
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE HAS NOT PERFORMED VERY WELL ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY ANYWAY. ON THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM IS THE SREF WHICH HAS
VERY HIGH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT BELIEVE IT IS TOO AGGRESSIVE DUE TO
HIGH SNOW RATIOS. DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR FAST ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TONIGHT...BUT ADMIT
THAT THIS ADVISORY HAS A HIGHER-THAN-USUAL BUST POTENTIAL. GENERALLY
2-4 INCHES EXPECTED...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN IRON AND PRICE COUNTY.
FRIDAY...GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. MILD DESPITE A
COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE TODAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 MPH.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH GENERALLY
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. STRONG WAA WILL THEN DEVELOP IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY
NIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED A MENTION OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY NIGHT...AS WARM AND MORE HUMID AIR LIFTS
QUICKLY NORTHWARD ON A 40 TO 50 KNOT LLJ. SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE
A WET DAY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...STRONG
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND A STRONG
COLD FRONT. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WOULD SUPPORT SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS WELL. THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY
PUSH OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN
AND SNOW MIX LATER IN THE NIGHT IN OUR NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA
COUNTIES. MONDAY AND TUESDAY GENERALLY LOOK DRY AT THIS POINT...WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. ANOTHER MAJOR SYSTEM WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS
THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN. COULD ALSO BE SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S AND 60S...WITH THE WARMEST
DAY LOOKING TO BE ON TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
LIFR CONDITIONS AT DLH WITH DENSE DUE TO E-NE FLOW OFF LAKE. THE
WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE N-NW BY 12Z WHICH IS ALLOW CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14Z. IT IS LIFR-IFR CONDITIONS AT HYR WHICH WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR THEN DROP BACK DOWN TO IFR AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.
AT BRD/INL/HIB...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR WITH POSSIBLE
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES NEAR THE AREA.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID-MORNING FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 30 59 42 59 / 0 10 20 60
INL 27 63 43 59 / 0 0 30 60
BRD 29 64 46 62 / 0 10 20 50
HYR 28 59 43 62 / 10 0 10 60
ASX 29 59 43 62 / 0 0 10 50
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ020-037.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ003-
004-008-009.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...STEWART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
633 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 418 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015
Tonight - Sunday Night:
A fairly active period as first a weak mid level shortwave tracks
ene out of CO as isentropic lift/warm air advection from 300K-310K
surface expands/increases across KS into MO. This mostly a
reflection of the nocturnal low-level jet ramping up and veering to
the southwest. The sputtering elevated convection over southwest KS
likely in response to the aforementioned h7 shortwave and isentropic
ascent. Have patterned tonight`s PoPs from last several HRRR runs
which is faster and further east with the precipitation. Seems
reasonable as the models typically underplay how far downstream warm
advection convection can extend. Elevated instability looks rather
puny and only a few hundred J/kg so will go with isolated thunder.
Small sub-severe hail possible.
First wave of convection should lift northeast in the morning with
maybe a sputtering second area following close on its heels. How the
morning convection plays out and how much the clouds clear out will
determine the strength of the stronger convection tied to the cold
front. What is interesting is how the NAM generates pre-frontal
convection along an instability axis with progged MLCAPEs in excess
of 2000 J/kg. Since there have been at least 3 consecutive model
runs generating this convection can`t totally dismiss it. The
current forecast is constructed with the idea that pre-frontal
convection will form late afternoon or early evening across
northeast KS and northwest MO with the cold front generated
convection eventually dropping southeast and merging. So, highest
PoPs will be across the northwest 1/2 of the CWA in the evening and
then allow the squalline to steadily translate southeast. The
evening convection could contain some marginally severe hail due to
the moderate instability and 30-40kt 0-6km shear which could support
sufficient updraft strength.
Monday - Tuesday:
Looks like we`ll be in between minor shortwave ridging aloft
shifting across the Northern Plains while a closed upper low lifts
northeast from West TX. Will maintain a dry forecast although there
is some concern that increasing warm air advection and weak lift
tied to the upper low opening up as it heads our way could force us
to add PoPs in later forecasts. Otherwise, dry surface high pressure
on Monday with northeast winds should grant us highs in the 65-70
range. Tuesday should see at least increasing high clouds which will
negate any boundary layer warming so max temperatures should keep
highs in the 60s.
Wednesday - Saturday:
A very uncertain period as the medium range models bounce around
with their solutions. The left overs from the closed upper low will
linger on Wednesday so will use low end chance PoPs to handle any
scattered light convection. Instability looks poor so thunder
chances will be low.
The rest of the period will be handled using a blended model
approach. As the latest GFS is now trending closely with the last
couple of runs of the ECMWF in handling the deep upper trough
tracking through the Rockies am anticipating the next forecast or
the one thereafter going towards drier conditions. The ECMWF has
trended towards developing a cut-off low over the Southern Rockies
and this solution is looking more and more likely, which would mean
delaying PoPs and above average temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 633 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015
Scattered showers and storms will build northeast during the early
overnight hours, reaching the KC area between 07z and 10z. Ceilings
should remain above 3 kft, but visibilities may briefly drop to MVFR
or even IFR in heavier showers. Winds will diminish slightly and back
to southeast over the next few hours, then will begin to increase out
of the south again as showers and storms move into the area. Rainfall
will continue into the morning then will taper off after 15z, leaving
behind VFR and breezy conditions.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Laflin
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
656 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015
SENT AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO TRIM THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SOME
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS MODEL DATA IS COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6 IN
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WHILE THE HRRR DOES SHOW SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING A BIT FURTHER NORTH...THIS MODEL SOLUTION
APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER AT THE MOMENT AND PRESENTLY THERE IS
VERY LIMITED CONVECTION TO OUR WEST WHERE IT INDICATES A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
DEVELOPING...WHICH FURTHER DISCREDITS THAT SOLUTION. OTHER THAN
TRIMMING THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
SUNDAY...NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
PACKAGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW CIRRUS AND A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS HAVE
BEEN INCREASING...BUT VERY SLOWLY.
MODELS HAVE A FEW DIFFERENCES IN LOCATION OF ANY PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT. SOME OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW SOME SPOTTY TYPE
PRECIPITATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. ALL OF IT
LOOKS TO BE MORE LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HAVE KEPT THE LOW POP IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DODGE CITY AREA MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST THEY COULD GET INTO THE SOUTH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SATELLITE SHOWS A FEW CUMULUS DEVELOPING A LITTLE TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS. THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE THIS EVENING
MAINLY ACROSS KANSAS AND NEARBY AREAS OF NEBRASKA.
THE SAME CONCERNS LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE NAM HAS THE
PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT OF THE AREA WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST FOR
SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA BY MID DAY.
THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT. BY AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MOST MODELS DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND WHEN THE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF THE AREA WILL HAVE
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE KEPT THEM MOSTLY IN THE EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015
THE WEEK WILL START DRY AND SEASONAL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER A COOLISH
START...LIGHT WINDS...SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE
FOR A VERY NICE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL BE VERY LOW WITH AMBIENT DRY AIR...BUT LIGHT WINDS
WILL KEEP THE NEED FOR ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITION
PRODUCTS/HEADLINES AT BAY.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER DRY DAY...BUT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
START TO CREEP INTO THE FORECAST. LOOK FOR STRONG SOUTH WINDS
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. MODELS ALWAYS TRY TO PUSH
MOISTURE RETURN IN SOUTHERLY FLOW BACK TOO QUICK EARLY IN THE
SEASON...AND BELIEVE THAT WILL BE THE CASE HERE. LOOKS LIKE A
DECENT BET CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE REACHED FOR
SOME AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MAY NOT BE ALL AREAS...AND DOES
FAVOR THE ABOUT THE NORTHWEST 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE REST OF WEEK IS A REALLY CHALLENGING FORECAST AT THIS POINT
AND THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY CHANGE DAILY AS FINER DETAILS
OPEN UP A BIT. THE MAIN ISSUE IS WHETHER A CUT OFF LOW WILL
FORM/MEANDER ITS WAY THROUGH THE PLAINS OR NOT. THE ANSWER
IS STILL QUITE AN UNKNOWN. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF
A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER WAVE...FOR WHICH THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE
BRING LIGHT RAIN INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF
TENDS TO FOCUS MORE ON THE APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST BY
MIDWEEK AND DIGS THAT FEATURE. THERE ARE SOME SIMILARITIES
WITH THE EC/GFS BOTH DIGGING A CUT OFF TYPE LOW IN THE REGION BUT
THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES FROM THAT POINT ON. 12Z EC IS NOW HOLDING
THE LOW BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OF NEBRASKA...WHICH MAY KEEP THE
BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS KANSAS. AND THE CANADIAN MODEL JUST SLIPS
AN OPEN WAVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH VERY LITTLE ISSUE. POINT
IS...THERE IS SOME RAIN CHANCE...BUT LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH
THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND
LIGHT BR DEVELOPING BY EARLY MORNING SUNDAY. WHILE MVFR CIGS WERE
INHERITED AND NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...THINK THAT VERY LOW LEVEL
STRATUS AND BR CURRENTLY IN MODEL DATA WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY
FORMING DUE TO STEADY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND FORECAST LOW
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FORECAST DEWPOINTS. THAT
SAID...INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FROM THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT...AND KEPT A SCT MVFR DECK IN
FORECAST IN CASE SOME LOWER STRATUS DOES TRY TO DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL DECREASE AND
BECOME STEADY AROUND 12KTS OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING AND
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS A SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSSI
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...MORITZ
AVIATION...ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
620 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015
H5 HAND ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAD A LOW AMPLITUDE
PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED
DOWN THE WEST COAST OF CANADA INTO THE PACIFIC NW WITH A SECONDARY
SYSTEM ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC JUST OFF THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NRN
QUEBEC...SWD INTO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WAS NOTED OVER
CUBA. WV IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON HAS A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS. THE FIRST OVER WESTERN OK AND A SECOND
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDED FROM NERN WYOMING...SWD INTO EASTERN COLORADO...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE WAS NOTED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. IN BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RESULTED IN BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NEBRASKA. WINDS IN THE
PANHANDLE AND WESTERN NEBRASKA WERE LIGHTER IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...3 PM CDT TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM 71 AT OGALLALA...NORTH PLATTE...AND IMPERIAL TO 76 AT
VALENTINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015
AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES/NORTHEASTERN CONUS ALONG WITH TWO DISTINCT SYSTEMS OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC/WESTERN CONUS. THE FIRST WAS MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WHILE THE SECOND WAS AN UPPER LOW WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. THIS LED TO WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SATURDAY.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...THEN WITH TEMPERATURES AND FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED IN FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW.
WEAK ENERGY PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STREAM FROM COLORADO INTO
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS HAVE HELPED TO DEVELOP A SURFACE TROUGH ON THE
LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES TODAY...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA WHICH HAS BROUGHT GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN ON THE
INCREASE...HOWEVER HAVE REMAINED WELL BELOW WHAT FORECAST MODELS
WERE SUGGESTING EARLIER TODAY...WITH 30S AND LOW 40S COMPARED TO
UPPER 40S AND 50S AS THE MODELS WERE PULLING IN. AT 20Z...THESE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS REMAINED ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS/OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS.
THIS MOISTURE HAS A BIG IMPACT ON WHAT WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY IN
TERMS OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MODELS ARE SHOWING MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY INTO
THE EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET PICKS UP. SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE
BEEN SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OVER COLORADO...THEN PROGRESSING EAST THIS
EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS AND INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THIS
LOOKS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AS IT DOESN/T LOOK LIKE THE
MOISTURE NEEDED FOR ANY STORMS WILL GET MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN
THAT. AND WHILE LOOKING AT CURRENT LAPS SOUNDINGS...WOULD THINK
ANYTHING WILL BE HIGHER BASED AND ISOLATED IN NATURE ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WINDS ARE LIKELY TO STAY STRONG AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT DOES NOT WEAKEN A WHOLE LOT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. WITH THE STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LOOKING TO PUSH
INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AFTER 06Z. WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER STAYING
MIXED...DON/T THINK FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE...SO A PERIOD OF STRATUS IS
LOOKING MORE LIKELY...ALTHOUGH NOT TERRIBLY CONFIDENT THAT IT WILL
DEVELOP.
THEN LOOKING TO SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SHOULD SCOUR OUT ANY REMAINING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. ALSO...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN BE OBSERVED ACROSS
THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE STRONGEST GRADIENT WINDS WILL
BE CENTERED AROUND 18Z...BUT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STAYS MIXED INTO
THE AFTERNOON...BELIEVE THE STRONGER WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING. THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LAG A BIT SO STILL
ANTICIPATING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE FAR NORTHWEST WILL SEE COOLER HIGHS...IN THE UPPER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015
MID RANGE...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN
IS EXPECTED IN THE MID RANGE...BEHIND AN EXITING FRONT AND IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED MIDWEEK. FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS...APPROACHING THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS BY 12Z
MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY BREEZY IN THE EARLY EVENING...WITH
DECOUPLING EXPECTED BY 03Z MONDAY PER NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING DATA. WITH
LIGHT WINDS...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND DRY AIR IN PLACE...LOWS
WILL DROP INTO THE 20S. GIVEN DEGREE OF DRY AIR IN PLACE SUNDAY
NIGHT...DECIDED TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...PARTICULARLY IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS AND NORTHWESTERN SANDHILLS...WHERE MID TO UPPER 20S
ARE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA ON
MONDAY. VERY DRY AIR WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA
WITH AFTERNOON DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70...SO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
REACH THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE. AT THIS TIME HOWEVER...NO CRITICAL
FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. ON TUESDAY NIGHT...SRLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST INTO IOWA AND
MISSOURI. LOW TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER
40S GIVEN THE INCREASING SRLY WINDS. SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
FURTHER ON TUESDAY. H85 WINDS WILL REACH 30 TO 40 KTS BY AFTERNOON
WITH EFFICIENT MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INDICATE GUST POTENTIAL TO OVER 40 MPH AT BOTH THE
KVTN AND KLBF TERMINALS. INHERITED FORECAST HAD MID 70S FOR HIGHS
TUESDAY AND THIS APPEARS TO REMAIN ON TRACK BASED ON THE LATEST MEX
NUMBERS. AS FOR DEW POINTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED THESE HIGHER AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE STRONG SRLY
WINDS. WITH THIS IN MIND...PUSHED DEW POINTS INTO THE 30S TUESDAY.
GIVEN HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...FIRE DANGER WILL PROBABLY STAY OUT OF
THE CRITICAL CATEGORY FROM A RH STANDPOINT...HOWEVER...THE STRONG SRLY WINDS
WILL PROBABLY PRODUCE EXTREME OR NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER AT THE
LEAST AND WE WILL PROBABLY NEED SOME SORT OF HEADLINE FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...IN THE OUTER
PERIODS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND PTYPES ASSOCIATED WITH A DECENT
MID WEEK SYSTEM ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES. THE MID RANGE
SOLNS THIS MORNING ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A CLOSED SYSTEM
CROSSING THE SWRN CONUS...LIFTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS
MIDWEEK. BY 18Z WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE 12Z VERSIONS OF THE ECMWF AND
GFS HAVE THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. BY 12Z THURSDAY BOTH
MODELS HAVE THE CLOSED LOW OVER NRN NEW MEXICO. DECENT LIFT WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS RETAINED. ONE
ASPECT OF THIS SYSTEM IS THE THREAT FOR SNOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN ZONES. THIS IS WHERE THE MODELS
DIFFER SOMEWHAT. THE ECMWF DRAWS IN COLDER AIR ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WEDS NIGHT...WHICH WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
SNOW WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. HOWEVER...THE GFS SOLN IS WARMER...KEEPING
PCPN AS ALL RAIN. GIVEN THE DISAGREEMENTS...DECIDED TO WORD AS RAIN
OR SNOW FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z THIS EVENING. THEREAFTER...ALL MODELS
SHOW STRATUS AND MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING. THE RAP SHOWS IT THE
FARTHEST WEST...NEAR HIGHWAY 61. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OFF
EAST WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. VFR IS
EXPECTED ALL AREAS FROM 18Z ONWARD.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR NEZ210.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
654 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS LINGERING INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW AND BUILD INTO THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SECOND COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWING INTO THE MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...BETWEEN THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF THE SEA
BREEZE AN THE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT FORCED
CONVECTION THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS DIMINISHED. SAT IMAGERY
SHOWS MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT IN CU FIELDS DESPITE THE WARM AND HUMID
AFTERNOON. SIMILARLY THE ISOLATED ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST MAY HAVE
TROUBLE SURVIVING INTO OUR REGION DUE TO THE DRYNESS INDICATED IN THE
LCL-LFC LAYER. BUT JUST IN CASE HAVE BEEN CARRYING LOW POPS OVER
WESTERN ZONES BEGINNING AROUND 21Z. THIS IS A BIT QUICKER THAN THE
WRF BUT SLOWER THAN THE NOW OUTLYING GFS. THE MOST UNCERTAINTY HAS
COME THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE HIGH RES MODELS SUCH AS THE RUC AND THE
HRRR. SUCH GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN ANY AND ALL PREFRONTAL
PRECIPITATION DETERIORATE COMPLETE. TAKE THE HRRR FOR EXAMPLE...NOT A
DROP OF RAIN UNTIL SOME FAIRLY BENIGN LOOKING SHALLOW CONVECTION
ENTERS OUR AREA...AT 04Z! CURRENT FORECAST IS NOT SO BOLDLY DRY BUT
JUST RECENTLY NOTICED THAT THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH DEPICTED ON THE WRF
IS MUCH TOO STRONG COMPARED TO REALITY. SO THE TREND STARTED THIS
MORNING OF SLOWING DOWN TIMING MAY VERY WELL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
WITH JUST A SLOW RAMPING UP OF POPS FROM NW TO SE...BUT THE BULK OF
THE RAIN COMING LATE OVERNIGHT AND GENERALLY SHALLOW CONVECTION WITH
JUST ISOLATED THUNDER. THE REMAINING SEVERE THREAT IS OVER FAR
INLAND ZONES WITH ANY PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP OR
ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST...REPRESENTING A LOW END DAMAGING WIND
THREAT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST OFF
THE COAST BY 12 UTC WITH LINGERING EARLY MORNING SHOWERS.
AFTER THE PRECIPITATION CLEARS SATURDAY MORNING...DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN THE 74 TO
78 DEGREE RANGE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDTY VALUES DROPPING INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30% RANGE LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...WETTISH EXTENDED PERIOD AS UPSTREAM UPPER
TROUGHING ALLOWS GULF MOISTURE TAPS TO EJECT NE INTO THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FIRST IMPULSE GUIDED FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA STREAMS NE IN AN ELEVATED PRECIPITABLE WATER
PLUME AS HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS FROM THE NORTH TO INSTIGATE AN
EARLY SPRING OVER-RUNNING WEDGE PATTERN INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH EDGES EAST OVER THE VALLEY
OVERSPREADING GULF VAPOR CONTENT THURSDAY AS THE WEDGE ERODES IN
WET AND ISENTROPIC OMEGA. EXTENDED PERIOD CULMINATES INTO
A RAINY FRIDAY AS THE AMPED UPPER TROUGH FORCES A COLD FRONT
ACROSS FORECAST AREA DAY 7. WPC QPF DEPICTIONS FOR DAYS 4-5 AND
6-7 YIELD BASIN AVERAGE COLLECTIVE RAIN TOTALS OF 1-2.5 INCHES.
PLENTIFUL CLOUDS IN BALMY SW FLOW ALOFT AND WEDGE PATTERN THIS
PERIOD RESULTS IN MAXIMUMS PRIMARILY 70S...MINIMUMS UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...SO FAR...IT LOOKS LIKE A BIG DISSIPOINTMENT WITH REGUARD
TO CONVECTION. THE CONVECTION IS FAIRLY STRONG IN COLUMBIA`S
CWA...BUT THAT WAS WHERE THE MAX CAPE RESIDED. WE STILL HAVE SOME
WARM AIR ALOFT THAT IS DAMPERING THINGS. NEVERTHELESS WILL KEEP SOME
CONVECTION IN THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT WILL SLOW THINGS DOWN AND WILL
TAKE OUT THE HEAVY GUSTS. LBT AND FLO STAND THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDER...BUT THINK IT WILL BE FLEETING.
SATURDAY MORNING...SOME IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT DROPS
IN...WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST...POST FRONTAL BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD IN
A PRE-FRONTAL FLOW REGIME. THE APPROACH OF THE BOUNDARY LATE
TONIGHT WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT LEADING TO A SMALL
INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS. WHILE THIS MAY INTRODUCE 5 FT SEAS
ALONG THE OUTER PORTIONS OF SOME OF THE FORECAST ZONES THE LARGE
COAST- PARALLEL COMPONENT SHOULD SPONSOR ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT IN
NEARSHORE VS OFFSHORE WAVES TO PRECLUDE A SCEC.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BE SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THEN NORTHEAST TO EAST
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS
EARLY IN THE MORNING BEFORE DROPPING DOWN TO 15 KNOTS BY THE
EVENING. ON SUNDAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND WINDS ARE
EXPECT TO PEAK AGAIN AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
DROPPING BACK TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE
RUNNING AROUND 3 TO 5 FEET SATURDAY MORNING WITH A FALL TO 2 TO 4
FEET SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW. WITH THE NORTHEAST
FLOW INCREASING THE SEAS WILL INCREASE BACK TO 3 TO 4 FEET ON
SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...A BUMPY MARINE ENVIRONMENT MON-WED AS A
MODERATE ONSHORE WIND FLOW KEEPS SEAS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...AND
OVERALL 3-5 FEET. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY PLAGUE THE WATERS
WITH RAIN AND OCCASIONAL REDUCED VISIBILITY AND ISOLATED TSTMS
AS GULF MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES SPREAD NE OVER THE 0-20 NM
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
FOR 6 FOOT SEAS OFFSHORE...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND
INTERACTS WITH AN OFFSHORE COASTAL TROUGH.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...HAWKINS
LONG TERM...MJC
AVIATION...43
MARINE...SRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
328 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS LINGERING INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW AND BUILD INTO THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SECOND COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWING INTO THE MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...BETWEEN THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF THE SEA
BREEZE AN THE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT FORCED
CONVECTION THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS DIMINISHED. SAT IMAGERY
SHOWS MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT IN CU FIELDS DESPITE THE WARM AND HUMID
AFTERNOON. SIMILARLY THE ISOLATED ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST MAY HAVE
TROUBLE SURVIVING INTO OUR REGION DUE TO THE DRYNESS INDICATED IN THE
LCL-LFC LAYER. BUT JUST IN CASE HAVE BEEN CARRYING LOW POPS OVER
WESTERN ZONES BEGINNING AROUND 21Z. THIS IS A BIT QUICKER THAN THE
WRF BUT SLOWER THAN THE NOW OUTLYING GFS. THE MOST UNCERTAINTY HAS
COME THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE HIGH RES MODELS SUCH AS THE RUC AND THE
HRRR. SUCH GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN ANY AND ALL PREFRONTAL
PRECIPITATION DETERIORATE COMPLETE. TAKE THE HRRR FOR EXAMPLE...NOT A
DROP OF RAIN UNTIL SOME FAIRLY BENIGN LOOKING SHALLOW CONVECTION
ENTERS OUR AREA...AT 04Z! CURRENT FORECAST IS NOT SO BOLDLY DRY BUT
JUST RECENTLY NOTICED THAT THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH DEPICTED ON THE WRF
IS MUCH TOO STRONG COMPARED TO REALITY. SO THE TREND STARTED THIS
MORNING OF SLOWING DOWN TIMING MAY VERY WELL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
WITH JUST A SLOW RAMPING UP OF POPS FROM NW TO SE...BUT THE BULK OF
THE RAIN COMING LATE OVERNIGHT AND GENERALLY SHALLOW CONVECTION WITH
JUST ISOLATED THUNDER. THE REMAINING SEVERE THREAT IS OVER FAR
INLAND ZONES WITH ANY PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP OR
ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST...REPRESENTING A LOW END DAMAGING WIND
THREAT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST OFF
THE COAST BY 12 UTC WITH LINGERING EARLY MORNING SHOWERS.
AFTER THE PRECIPITATION CLEARS SATURDAY MORNING...DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN THE 74 TO
78 DEGREE RANGE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDTY VALUES DROPPING INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30% RANGE LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...WETTISH EXTENDED PERIOD AS UPSTREAM UPPER
TROUGHING ALLOWS GULF MOISTURE TAPS TO EJECT NE INTO THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FIRST IMPULSE GUIDED FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA STREAMS NE IN AN ELEVATED PRECIPITABLE WATER
PLUME AS HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS FROM THE NORTH TO INSTIGATE AN
EARLY SPRING OVER-RUNNING WEDGE PATTERN INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH EDGES EAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
OVERSPREADING GULF VAPOR CONTENT THURSDAY AS THE WEDGE ERODES IN
WET UPGLIDE AND ISENTROPIC OMEGA. EXTENDED PERIOD CULMINATES INTO
A RAINY FRIDAY AS THE AMPED UPPER TROUGH FORCES A COLD FRONT
ACROSS FORECAST AREA DAY 7. WPC QPF DEPICTIONS FOR DAYS 4-5 AND
6-7 YIELD BASIN AVERAGE COLLECTIVE RAIN TOTALS OF 1-2.5 INCHES.
PLENTIFUL CLOUDS IN BALMY SW FLOW ALOFT AND WEDGE PATTERN THIS
PERIOD RESULTS IN MAXIMUMS PRIMARILY 70S...MINIMUMS UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...POTENTIALLY CREATING MVFR/IFR. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR SATURDAY MORNING.
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH LOW TO HIGH CLOUDS
AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 15 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS POSSIBLE
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INTO TONIGHT...CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST TO EAST...REACHING THE COAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME STORMS...ESPECIALLY
INLAND...COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
POSSIBLE. LATE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
PATCHY AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CIGS POSSIBLE AND WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
AOB 12 KTS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
CLOUD COVER BECOMING SCATTERED AND NORTHERLY WINDS AOB 10 KTS BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD IN
A PRE-FRONTAL FLOW REGIME. THE APPROACH OF THE BOUNDARY LATE
TONIGHT WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT LEADING TO A SMALL
INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS. WHILE THIS MAY INTRODUCE 5 FT SEAS
ALONG THE OUTER PORTIONS OF SOME OF THE FORECAST ZONES THE LARGE
COAST- PARALLEL COMPONENT SHOULD SPONSOR ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT IN
NEARSHORE VS OFFSHORE WAVES TO PRECLUDE A SCEC.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BE SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THEN NORTHEAST TO EAST
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS
EARLY IN THE MORNING BEFORE DROPPING DOWN TO 15 KNOTS BY THE
EVENING. ON SUNDAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND WINDS ARE
EXPECT TO PEAK AGAIN AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
DROPPING BACK TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE
RUNNING AROUND 3 TO 5 FEET SATURDAY MORNING WITH A FALL TO 2 TO 4
FEET SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW. WITH THE NORTHEAST
FLOW INCREASING THE SEAS WILL INCREASE BACK TO 3 TO 4 FEET ON
SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...A BUMPY MARINE ENVIRONMENT MON-WED AS A
MODERATE ONSHORE WIND FLOW KEEPS SEAS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...AND
OVERALL 3-5 FEET. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY PLAGUE THE WATERS
WITH RAIN AND OCCASIONAL REDUCED VISIBILITY AND ISOLATED TSTMS
AS GULF MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES SPREAD NE OVER THE 0-20 NM
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
FOR 6 FOOT SEAS OFFSHORE...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND
INTERACTS WITH AN OFFSHORE COASTAL TROUGH.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...HAWKINS
LONG TERM...MJC
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...SRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
149 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1235 PM FRIDAY...DECREASED POPS EVEN MORE THRU TODAY AS
LOOKS LIKE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL NOT ARRIVE TIL THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH GUSTY SW WINDS AND WARM
TEMPS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
PREV DISC...WARM FRONT NOW WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WITH ALL
AREAS TEMPS IN THE 60S. PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED AND THE 3KM HRRR
AND RAP MODELS SHOW MOST OF THE AREA REMAINING DRY INTO EARLY
EVENING. HAVE DROPPED POPS THROUGH ABOUT 18Z BASED ON THESE
TRENDS. AS DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVES
AWAY...EXPECT MORE AND MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL INTO THE 80S INLAND AND WELL INTO THE
70S ALONG THE COAST. FORECAST DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S
WILL AID DESTABILIZATION BY AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST LI VALUES IN
THE -4 TO -6 RANGE WITH CAPE VALUES OF 1500 J/KG FORECAST BY LATER
IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A LINE OF
CONVECTION ARRIVES IN OUR CWA AROUND 00Z JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND MOVES OFFSHORE SOMETIME NEAR 06Z. SPC HAS COUNTIES JUST INLAND
FROM THE COAST IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE TODAY WITH MARGINAL RISK
ALONG THE COAST...MAINLY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY
ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES. THINK STRONG DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LARGE HAIL AS
WELL. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE
LIKELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM FRIDAY...WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS ALONG THE COAST AFTER
06Z WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING NEAR OR OFFSHORE BY 12Z. THE THREAT
OF THUNDER WILL LARGE END AFTER 06Z AS MOST OF THE INSTABILITY
MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION DOES NOT
START IN EARNEST UNTIL SATURDAY...SO THINK MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND 60 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS. A TOTAL OF ONE-
HALF TO POSSIBLY THREE-QUARTER INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS SAT-MON PERIOD
WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRY FCST. SIGNIFICANT
ADJUSTMENTS TO TUE-THU PERIOD WITH MODELS INDICATING FRONTAL
PASSAGE TUE-TUE NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRES WED-THU.
SATURDAY...00Z GFS HAS FRONT WELL OFF COAST AT 12Z WHILE NAM AND
ECMWF HAVE IT JUST ALONG COAST WITH SRN STREAM SHRT WV STILL
MOVING THROUGH TO INDICATE LINGERING THREAT OF SHOWERS UNTIL MID
MORNING. CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST WHICH LEANED TO THIS SLIGHTLY
SLOWER SOLUTION. CLEARING EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTN AND MOS GDNC
SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS 70-75 INLAND WITH 60S OBX.
SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
SFC RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS TO N...THEN OFFSHORE ON MON. COOLEST
TEMPS LIKELY SAT NIGHT...MAINLY MID TO UPR 40S. TEMPS THEN
MODERATING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MON.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NRN
STREAM SHRT WV MOVING ACROSS NE US WITH ATTENDANT SFC FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH ERN NC LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. GIVEN INCREASED MODEL
CONFIDENCE...ADDED SLGT CHC POPS OVER WRN SECTIONS LATE MON NIGHT
AND INCREASED POPS TO CHC ALL ZONES TUE WITH LINGERING SLGT CHC
ERN SECTIONS TUE EVENING. MODELS INDICATE RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT
LATE TUE NIGHT INTO THU...AND DROPPED POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH MSTR
AND LIFT REMAINING S AND W OF AREA UNTIL THU NIGHT. TEMPS A FEW
DEGS COOLER BEHIND FRONT WED...MODERATING AGAIN THU.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTY SW WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS WITH
A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 3500 FT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
ARRIVING SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BRIEFLY REDUCED CONDITIONS TO MVFR. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO WANE AFTER 06Z WITH LINGERING SHOWERS
AFTERWARDS AND FORECASTING SOUNDING IS INDICATING MVFR CEILINGS TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. CEILING CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR...FROM
WEST TO EAST AROUND 12Z TO 15Z SATURDAY. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
OFF THE COAST BY 15Z.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...LINGERING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PSBL EARLY SAT
MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR ALL AREAS BY AFTN. VFR EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL SAT NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH HIGH PRES MOVING ACROSS TO N
AND THEN OFFSHORE. SUB-VFR PSBL AGAIN LATE MON NIGHT AS MSTR
RETURNS WITH SRLY FLOW...BUT MORE LIKELY TUE WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1235 PM FRIDAY...ADDED RIVERS AND ALBEMARLE SOUND TO SCA
THRU EARLY EVENING. WINDS ARE LIKELY MIXING OVER THE RIVERS AND AT
LEAST PORTIONS OF THE SOUND WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. ONCE MIXING
DIMINISHES THIS EVENING WIND GUSTS SHLD COME DOWN SIGNIF.
PREV DISC...WITH WARM FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...WINDS ARE
GENERALLY S/SW AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
PLACES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND. FEEL THE SOUTHERN
WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND MAY MAINLY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN GUSTS...BUT SEAS SHOULD REACH 6 FEET OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN WATERS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...INCREASING TO AS
HIGH AS 5 TO 7 FEET OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS LATE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO SAT-MON
PERIOD...BUT DID ADJUST MON NIGHT-TUE PERIOD WITH LATEST MODEL
CONSENSUS. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SAT MORNING FOLLOWED BY
BRIEF NRLY WIND SURGE WHICH WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KT BY
EVENING. SECONDARY SURGE OF NE WINDS 15-20 KT LATE SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...THEN WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO E-SE AROUND 10 KT SUN
NIGHT INTO MON. 00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT S-SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MON NIGHT INTO TUE
AND ADJUSTED FCST ACCORDINGLY.
LOCAL NWPS NOT AVBL...AND USED BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND WW3 FOR
SEAS. HEIGHTS SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT LATE SAT...THEN BUILDING AGAIN
TO 3-4 FT SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...DROPPING TO AROUND 2 FT SUN NIGHT
INTO MON. SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT TUE WITH STRONGER S-SW WINDS.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ131-
136-137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF/CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/BM
MARINE...RF/CTC/JBM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1242 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1235 PM FRIDAY...DECREASED POPS EVEN MORE THRU TODAY AS
LOOKS LIKE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL NOT ARRIVE TIL THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH GUSTY SW WINDS AND WARM
TEMPS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
PREV DISC...WARM FRONT NOW WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WITH ALL
AREAS TEMPS IN THE 60S. PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED AND THE 3KM HRRR
AND RAP MODELS SHOW MOST OF THE AREA REMAINING DRY INTO EARLY
EVENING. HAVE DROPPED POPS THROUGH ABOUT 18Z BASED ON THESE
TRENDS. AS DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVES
AWAY...EXPECT MORE AND MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL INTO THE 80S INLAND AND WELL INTO THE
70S ALONG THE COAST. FORECAST DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S
WILL AID DESTABILIZATION BY AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST LI VALUES IN
THE -4 TO -6 RANGE WITH CAPE VALUES OF 1500 J/KG FORECAST BY LATER
IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A LINE OF
CONVECTION ARRIVES IN OUR CWA AROUND 00Z JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND MOVES OFFSHORE SOMETIME NEAR 06Z. SPC HAS COUNTIES JUST INLAND
FROM THE COAST IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE TODAY WITH MARGINAL RISK
ALONG THE COAST...MAINLY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY
ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES. THINK STRONG DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LARGE HAIL AS
WELL. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE
LIKELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM FRIDAY...WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS ALONG THE COAST AFTER
06Z WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING NEAR OR OFFSHORE BY 12Z. THE THREAT
OF THUNDER WILL LARGE END AFTER 06Z AS MOST OF THE INSTABILITY
MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION DOES NOT
START IN EARNEST UNTIL SATURDAY...SO THINK MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND 60 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS. A TOTAL OF ONE-
HALF TO POSSIBLY THREE-QUARTER INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS SAT-MON PERIOD
WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRY FCST. SIGNIFICANT
ADJUSTMENTS TO TUE-THU PERIOD WITH MODELS INDICATING FRONTAL
PASSAGE TUE-TUE NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRES WED-THU.
SATURDAY...00Z GFS HAS FRONT WELL OFF COAST AT 12Z WHILE NAM AND
ECMWF HAVE IT JUST ALONG COAST WITH SRN STREAM SHRT WV STILL
MOVING THROUGH TO INDICATE LINGERING THREAT OF SHOWERS UNTIL MID
MORNING. CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST WHICH LEANED TO THIS SLIGHTLY
SLOWER SOLUTION. CLEARING EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTN AND MOS GDNC
SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS 70-75 INLAND WITH 60S OBX.
SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
SFC RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS TO N...THEN OFFSHORE ON MON. COOLEST
TEMPS LIKELY SAT NIGHT...MAINLY MID TO UPR 40S. TEMPS THEN
MODERATING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MON.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NRN
STREAM SHRT WV MOVING ACROS NE US WITH ATTENDANT SFC FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH ERN NC LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. GIVEN INCREASED MODEL
CONFIDENCE...ADDED SLGT CHC POPS OVER WRN SECTIONS LATE MON NIGHT
AND INCREASED POPS TO CHC ALL ZONES TUE WITH LINGERING SLGT CHC
ERN SECTIONS TUE EVENING. MODELS INDICATE RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT
LATE TUE NIGHT INTO THU...AND DROPPED POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH MSTR
AND LIFT REMAINING S AND W OF AREA UNTIL THU NIGHT. TEMPS A FEW
DEGS COOLER BEHIND FRONT WED...MODERATING AGAIN THU.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM FRIDAY...MOST OF THE LOWER CEILINGS/VSBYS HAVE FAILED
TO MATERIALIZE THIS MORNING...EXCEPT FOR A FEW PATCHES OF FOG
AROUND KOAJ. WITH INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING...INCREASING
MIXING...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-AFTERNOON. LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND 00Z AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL WANE AFTER 06Z
WITH LINGERING SHOWERS...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. THESE EVENING
SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY DROP CONDITIONS TO MVFR IN BOTH CEILING AND
VSBY AT TIMES...MAINLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...LINGERING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PSBL EARLY SAT
MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR ALL AREAS BY AFTN. VFR EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL SAT NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH HIGH PRES MOVING ACROSS TO N
AND THEN OFFSHORE. SUB-VFR PSBL AGAIN LATE MON NIGHT AS MSTR
RETURNS WITH SRLY FLOW...BUT MORE LIKELY TUE WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1235 PM FRIDAY...ADDED RIVERS AND ALBEMARLE SOUND TO SCA
THRU EARLY EVENING. WINDS ARE LIKELY MIXING OVER THE RIVERS AND AT
LEAST PORTIONS OF THE SOUND WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. ONCE MIXING
DIMINISHES THIS EVENING WIND GUSTS SHLD COME DOWN SIGNIF.
PREV DISC...WITH WARM FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...WINDS ARE
GENERALLY S/SW AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
PLACES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND. FEEL THE SOUTHERN
WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND MAY MAINLY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN GUSTS...BUT SEAS SHOULD REACH 6 FEET OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN WATERS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...INCREASING TO AS
HIGH AS 5 TO 7 FEET OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS LATE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO SAT-MON
PERIOD...BUT DID ADJUST MON NIGHT-TUE PERIOD WITH LATEST MODEL
CONSENSUS. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SAT MORNING FOLLOWED BY
BRIEF NRLY WIND SURGE WHICH WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KT BY
EVENING. SECONDARY SURGE OF NE WINDS 15-20 KT LATE SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...THEN WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO E-SE AROUND 10 KT SUN
NIGHT INTO MON. 00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT S-SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MON NIGHT INTO TUE
AND ADJUSTED FCST ACCORDINGLY.
LOCAL NWPS NOT AVBL...AND USED BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND WW3 FOR
SEAS. HEIGHTS SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT LATE SAT...THEN BUILDING AGAIN
TO 3-4 FT SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...DROPPING TO AROUND 2 FT SUN NIGHT
INTO MON. SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT TUE WITH STRONGER S-SW WINDS.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ131-
136-137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF/CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...CTC/JBM
MARINE...RF/CTC/JBM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
916 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 915 AM FRIDAY...DECREASED POPS ALONG COAST LATER TODAY AS
PRECIP LOOKS TO HOLD OFF TIL TONIGHT. INCREASED WIND GUSTS OVER
LAND AS GOOD MIXING EXPECTED WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 MPH LIKELY. NO
MJR CHANGES TO TEMPS WITH LOW TO MID 80S INLAND AND 70S BEACHES.
PREV DISC...WARM FRONT NOW WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WITH ALL
AREAS TEMPS IN THE 60S. PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED AND THE 3KM HRRR
AND RAP MODELS SHOW MOST OF THE AREA REMAINING DRY INTO EARLY
EVENING. HAVE DROPPED POPS THROUGH ABOUT 18Z BASED ON THESE
TRENDS. AS DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVES
AWAY...EXPECT MORE AND MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL INTO THE 80S INLAND AND WELL INTO THE
70S ALONG THE COAST. FORECAST DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S
WILL AID DESTABILIZATION BY AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST LI VALUES IN
THE -4 TO -6 RANGE WITH CAPE VALUES OF 1500 J/KG FORECAST BY LATER
IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A LINE OF
CONVECTION ARRIVES IN OUR CWA AROUND 00Z JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND MOVES OFFSHORE SOMETIME NEAR 06Z. SPC HAS COUNTIES JUST INLAND
FROM THE COAST IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE TODAY WITH MARGINAL RISK
ALONG THE COAST...MAINLY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY
ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES. THINK STRONG DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LARGE HAIL AS
WELL. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE
LIKELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM FRIDAY...WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS ALONG THE COAST AFTER
06Z WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING NEAR OR OFFSHORE BY 12Z. THE THREAT
OF THUNDER WILL LARGE END AFTER 06Z AS MOST OF THE INSTABILITY
MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION DOES NOT
START IN EARNEST UNTIL SATURDAY...SO THINK MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND 60 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS. A TOTAL OF ONE-
HALF TO POSSIBLY THREE-QUARTER INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS SAT-MON PERIOD
WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRY FCST. SIGNIFICANT
ADJUSTMENTS TO TUE-THU PERIOD WITH MODELS INDICATING FRONTAL
PASSAGE TUE-TUE NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRES WED-THU.
SATURDAY...00Z GFS HAS FRONT WELL OFF COAST AT 12Z WHILE NAM AND
ECMWF HAVE IT JUST ALONG COAST WITH SRN STREAM SHRT WV STILL
MOVING THROUGH TO INDICATE LINGERING THREAT OF SHOWERS UNTIL MID
MORNING. CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST WHICH LEANED TO THIS SLIGHTLY
SLOWER SOLUTION. CLEARING EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTN AND MOS GDNC
SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS 70-75 INLAND WITH 60S OBX.
SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
SFC RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS TO N...THEN OFFSHORE ON MON. COOLEST
TEMPS LIKELY SAT NIGHT...MAINLY MID TO UPR 40S. TEMPS THEN
MODERATING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MON.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NRN
STREAM SHRT WV MOVING ACROS NE US WITH ATTENDANT SFC FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH ERN NC LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. GIVEN INCREASED MODEL
CONFIDENCE...ADDED SLGT CHC POPS OVER WRN SECTIONS LATE MON NIGHT
AND INCREASED POPS TO CHC ALL ZONES TUE WITH LINGERING SLGT CHC
ERN SECTIONS TUE EVENING. MODELS INDICATE RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT
LATE TUE NIGHT INTO THU...AND DROPPED POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH MSTR
AND LIFT REMAINING S AND W OF AREA UNTIL THU NIGHT. TEMPS A FEW
DEGS COOLER BEHIND FRONT WED...MODERATING AGAIN THU.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM FRIDAY...MOST OF THE LOWER CEILINGS/VSBYS HAVE FAILED
TO MATERIALIZE THIS MORNING...EXCEPT FOR A FEW PATCHES OF FOG
AROUND KOAJ. WITH INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING...INCREASING
MIXING...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-AFTERNOON. LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND 00Z AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL WANE AFTER 06Z
WITH LINGERING SHOWERS...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. THESE EVENING
SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY DROP CONDITIONS TO MVFR IN BOTH CEILING AND
VSBY AT TIMES...MAINLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...LINGERING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PSBL EARLY SAT
MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR ALL AREAS BY AFTN. VFR EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL SAT NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH HIGH PRES MOVING ACROSS TO N
AND THEN OFFSHORE. SUB-VFR PSBL AGAIN LATE MON NIGHT AS MSTR
RETURNS WITH SRLY FLOW...BUT MORE LIKELY TUE WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES WITH SW WINDS GRAD INCREASING
TODAY AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W.
PREV DISC...WITH WARM FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...WINDS ARE
GENERALLY S/SW AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
PLACES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND. FEEL THE SOUTHERN
WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND MAY MAINLY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN GUSTS...BUT SEAS SHOULD REACH 6 FEET OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN WATERS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...INCREASING TO AS
HIGH AS 5 TO 7 FEET OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS LATE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO SAT-MON
PERIOD...BUT DID ADJUST MON NIGHT-TUE PERIOD WITH LATEST MODEL
CONSENSUS. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SAT MORNING FOLLOWED BY
BRIEF NRLY WIND SURGE WHICH WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KT BY
EVENING. SECONDARY SURGE OF NE WINDS 15-20 KT LATE SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...THEN WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO E-SE AROUND 10 KT SUN
NIGHT INTO MON. 00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT S-SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MON NIGHT INTO TUE
AND ADJUSTED FCST ACCORDINGLY.
LOCAL NWPS NOT AVBL...AND USED BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND WW3 FOR
SEAS. HEIGHTS SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT LATE SAT...THEN BUILDING AGAIN
TO 3-4 FT SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...DROPPING TO AROUND 2 FT SUN NIGHT
INTO MON. SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT TUE WITH STRONGER S-SW WINDS.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ135-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...RF/CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...CTC/JBM
MARINE...RF/CTC/JBM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
705 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 7 AM FRIDAY...WARM FRONT NOW WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WITH
ALL AREAS TEMPS IN THE 60S. PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED AND THE 3KM
HRRR AND RAP MODELS SHOW MOST OF THE AREA REMAINING DRY INTO EARLY
EVENING. HAVE DROPPED POPS THROUGH ABOUT 18Z BASED ON THESE
TRENDS. AS DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVES
AWAY...EXPECT MORE AND MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL INTO THE 80S INLAND AND WELL INTO THE
70S ALONG THE COAST. FORECAST DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S
WILL AID DESTABILIZATION BY AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST LI VALUES IN
THE -4 TO -6 RANGE WITH CAPE VALUES OF 1500 J/KG FORECAST BY LATER
IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A LINE OF
CONVECTION ARRIVES IN OUR CWA AROUND 00Z JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND MOVES OFFSHORE SOMETIME NEAR 06Z. SPC HAS COUNTIES JUST INLAND
FROM THE COAST IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE TODAY WITH MARGINAL RISK
ALONG THE COAST...MAINLY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY
ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES. THINK STRONG DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LARGE HAIL AS
WELL. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE
LIKELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM FRIDAY...WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS ALONG THE COAST AFTER
06Z WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING NEAR OR OFFSHORE BY 12Z. THE THREAT
OF THUNDER WILL LARGE END AFTER 06Z AS MOST OF THE INSTABILITY
MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION DOES NOT
START IN EARNEST UNTIL SATURDAY...SO THINK MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND 60 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS. A TOTAL OF ONE-
HALF TO POSSIBLY THREE-QUARTER INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS SAT-MON PERIOD
WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRY FCST. SIGNIFICANT
ADJUSTMENTS TO TUE-THU PERIOD WITH MODELS INDICATING FRONTAL
PASSAGE TUE-TUE NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRES WED-THU.
SATURDAY...00Z GFS HAS FRONT WELL OFF COAST AT 12Z WHILE NAM AND
ECMWF HAVE IT JUST ALONG COAST WITH SRN STREAM SHRT WV STILL
MOVING THROUGH TO INDICATE LINGERING THREAT OF SHOWERS UNTIL MID
MORNING. CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST WHICH LEANED TO THIS SLIGHTLY
SLOWER SOLUTION. CLEARING EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTN AND MOS GDNC
SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS 70-75 INLAND WITH 60S OBX.
SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
SFC RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS TO N...THEN OFFSHORE ON MON. COOLEST
TEMPS LIKELY SAT NIGHT...MAINLY MID TO UPR 40S. TEMPS THEN
MODERATING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MON.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NRN
STREAM SHRT WV MOVING ACROS NE US WITH ATTENDANT SFC FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH ERN NC LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. GIVEN INCREASED MODEL
CONFIDENCE...ADDED SLGT CHC POPS OVER WRN SECTIONS LATE MON NIGHT
AND INCREASED POPS TO CHC ALL ZONES TUE WITH LINGERING SLGT CHC
ERN SECTIONS TUE EVENING. MODELS INDICATE RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT
LATE TUE NIGHT INTO THU...AND DROPPED POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH MSTR
AND LIFT REMAINING S AND W OF AREA UNTIL THU NIGHT. TEMPS A FEW
DEGS COOLER BEHIND FRONT WED...MODERATING AGAIN THU.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM FRIDAY...MOST OF THE LOWER CEILINGS/VSBYS HAVE FAILED
TO MATERIALIZE THIS MORNING...EXCEPT FOR A FEW PATCHES OF FOG
AROUND KOAJ. WITH INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING...INCREASING
MIXING...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-AFTERNOON. LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND 00Z AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL WANE AFTER 06Z
WITH LINGERING SHOWERS...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. THESE EVENING
SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY DROP CONDITIONS TO MVFR IN BOTH CEILING AND
VSBY AT TIMES...MAINLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...LINGERING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PSBL EARLY SAT
MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR ALL AREAS BY AFTN. VFR EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL SAT NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH HIGH PRES MOVING ACROSS TO N
AND THEN OFFSHORE. SUB-VFR PSBL AGAIN LATE MON NIGHT AS MSTR
RETURNS WITH SRLY FLOW...BUT MORE LIKELY TUE WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM FRIDAY...WITH WARM FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...WINDS
ARE GENERALLY S/SW AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN PLACES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND. FEEL
THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND MAY MAINLY REACH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN GUSTS...BUT SEAS SHOULD REACH 6 FEET
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...INCREASING
TO AS HIGH AS 5 TO 7 FEET OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS LATE THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO SAT-MON
PERIOD...BUT DID ADJUST MON NIGHT-TUE PERIOD WITH LATEST MODEL
CONSENSUS. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SAT MORNING FOLLOWED BY
BRIEF NRLY WIND SURGE WHICH WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KT BY
EVENING. SECONDARY SURGE OF NE WINDS 15-20 KT LATE SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...THEN WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO E-SE AROUND 10 KT SUN
NIGHT INTO MON. 00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT S-SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MON NIGHT INTO TUE
AND ADJUSTED FCST ACCORDINGLY.
LOCAL NWPS NOT AVBL...AND USED BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND WW3 FOR
SEAS. HEIGHTS SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT LATE SAT...THEN BUILDING AGAIN
TO 3-4 FT SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...DROPPING TO AROUND 2 FT SUN NIGHT
INTO MON. SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT TUE WITH STRONGER S-SW WINDS.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ135-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...CTC/JBM
MARINE...CTC/JBM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
447 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 410 AM SATURDAY...WARM FRONT HAS NOW MOVED NORTH OF OUR CWA
AS TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN QUICKLY INTO THE 60S ALONG THE NORTHERN
OUTER BANKS...AFTER BEING IN THE UPPER 40S JUST A COUPLE OF HOURS
AGO. THE PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE CWA AS WELL AND
LATEST RUNS OF THE 3KM HRRR AND RAP SHOW THE AREA REMAINING DRY
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. AS DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM
THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVES AWAY...EXPECT BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL INTO THE 80S INLAND AND
WELL INTO THE 70S ALONG THE COAST. FORECAST DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 60S WILL AID DESTABILIZATION BY AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST
LI VALUES IN THE -4 TO -6 RANGE WITH CAPE VALUES OF 1500 J/KG
FORECAST BY LATER IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A LINE OF CONVECTION ARRIVES IN OUR CWA AROUND 00Z
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MOVES OFFSHORE SOMETIME NEAR 06Z. SPC
HAS COUNTIES JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
TODAY WITH MARGINAL RISK ALONG THE COAST...MAINLY DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES. THINK
STRONG DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...ALTHOUGH CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LARGE HAIL AS WELL. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE LIKELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM FRIDAY...WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS ALONG THE COAST AFTER
06Z WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING NEAR OR OFFSHORE BY 12Z. THE THREAT
OF THUNDER WILL LARGE END AFTER 06Z AS MOST OF THE INSTABILITY
MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION DOES NOT
START IN EARNEST UNTIL SATURDAY...SO THINK MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND 60 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS. A TOTAL OF ONE-
HALF TO POSSIBLY THREE-QUARTER INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS SAT-MON PERIOD
WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRY FCST. SIGNIFICANT
ADJUSTMENTS TO TUE-THU PERIOD WITH MODELS INDICATING FRONTAL
PASSAGE TUE-TUE NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRES WED-THU.
SATURDAY...00Z GFS HAS FRONT WELL OFF COAST AT 12Z WHILE NAM AND
ECMWF HAVE IT JUST ALONG COAST WITH SRN STREAM SHRT WV STILL
MOVING THROUGH TO INDICATE LINGERING THREAT OF SHOWERS UNTIL MID
MORNING. CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST WHICH LEANED TO THIS SLIGHTLY
SLOWER SOLUTION. CLEARING EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTN AND MOS GDNC
SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS 70-75 INLAND WITH 60S OBX.
SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
SFC RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS TO N...THEN OFFSHORE ON MON. COOLEST
TEMPS LIKELY SAT NIGHT...MAINLY MID TO UPR 40S. TEMPS THEN
MODERATING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MON.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NRN
STREAM SHRT WV MOVING ACROS NE US WITH ATTENDANT SFC FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH ERN NC LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. GIVEN INCREASED MODEL
CONFIDENCE...ADDED SLGT CHC POPS OVER WRN SECTIONS LATE MON NIGHT
AND INCREASED POPS TO CHC ALL ZONES TUE WITH LINGERING SLGT CHC
ERN SECTIONS TUE EVENING. MODELS INDICATE RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT
LATE TUE NIGHT INTO THU...AND DROPPED POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH MSTR
AND LIFT REMAINING S AND W OF AREA UNTIL THU NIGHT. TEMPS A FEW
DEGS COOLER BEHIND FRONT WED...MODERATING AGAIN THU.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1 AM FRIDAY...WITH CONVECTION GRADUALLY MOVING NORTH OF ALL
TAF SITES...EXPECT A WARM MOIST AIRMASS TO PREVAIL WITH SOME
PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG. GUIDANCE INDICATES CEILINGS DROPPING INTO
IFR RANGE FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE IMPROVING WITH GOOD MIXING FROM
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS
ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AGAIN AFTER 00Z SATURDAY WITH LINE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...LINGERING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PSBL EARLY SAT
MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR ALL AREAS BY AFTN. VFR EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL SAT NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH HIGH PRES MOVING ACROSS TO N
AND THEN OFFSHORE. SUB-VFR PSBL AGAIN LATE MON NIGHT AS MSTR
RETURNS WITH SRLY FLOW...BUT MORE LIKELY TUE WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM FRIDAY...WARM FRONT HAS NOW WORKED NORTH OF THE CWA
WITH ALL WINDS SE/S. WIND SPEEDS HAVE INCREASED...NOW REACH 20
KNOTS ON THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND 15 TO 20 KNOTS AT DUCK WITH A
SOLID 15 KNOTS ON THE PAMLICO SOUND. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL LIKELY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS INTO LATE TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
RESPOND...INCREASING TO AS HIGH AS 5 TO 7 FEET OVER THE CENTRAL
WATERS LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO SAT-MON
PERIOD...BUT DID ADJUST MON NIGHT-TUE PERIOD WITH LATEST MODEL
CONSENSUS. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SAT MORNING FOLLOWED BY
BRIEF NRLY WIND SURGE WHICH WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KT BY
EVENING. SECONDARY SURGE OF NE WINDS 15-20 KT LATE SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...THEN WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO E-SE AROUND 10 KT SUN
NIGHT INTO MON. 00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT S-SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MON NIGHT INTO TUE
AND ADJUSTED FCST ACCORDINGLY.
LOCAL NWPS NOT AVBL...AND USED BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND WW3 FOR
SEAS. HEIGHTS SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT LATE SAT...THEN BUILDING AGAIN
TO 3-4 FT SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...DROPPING TO AROUND 2 FT SUN NIGHT
INTO MON. SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT TUE WITH STRONGER S-SW WINDS.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ135-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...CTC/JBM
MARINE...CTC/JBM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1256 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY AND MOVE
OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM FRIDAY...VERY TIGHT INSTABILITY GRADIENT ALONG
EAST-WEST ORIENTED WARM FRONT CURRENTLY BISECTING THE CWA. LATEST
3 KM HRRR HANDLING CURRENT PRECIPITATION WELL SHOWING
SHOWERS/TSTMS AFFECTING OUR FAR NW/N CWA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION
AND OUT TO SEA THROUGH 08Z OR SO. HAVE DROPPED POPS OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG IN THESE AREAS LATE.
QUITE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL WITH 49
DEGREES AT FFA BUT NEAR 70 AROUND JACKSONVILLE. THE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM OVER THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS
AS THE WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM THURSDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA ON FRIDAY PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SPLY FOR NW
SECTIONS LATE IN THE DAY. A VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AMS FRI AFTN
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF PSBL SVR TSTMS BUT MAIN FORCING WITH FRONT
WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM UNTIL EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCT CONVECTION IS PSBL
INLAND OF SEA BREEZE DURING AFTN...BUT BEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS AND SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL FRI EVE.WARM
TEMPS EXPECTED ON FRI WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE MID
80S COASTAL PLAINS TO THE LWR AND MID 70S OBX AND NERN AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY... MAIN FEATURE DURING PERIOD WILL BE A
STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO AREA FRI NIGHT AND OFFSHORE
SAT MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ENE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT THEN EAST INTO QUEBEC SATURDAY.
AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO EASTERN CANADA, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS EASTERN NC AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AHEAD OF AND ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MUCAPE VALUES PEAK AROUND 03-06Z FRI NIGHT
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SW SHEAR,
THOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES WANE TO ROUGHLY 20-25 KNOTS WITH LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES BELOW 6 C/KM AFTER 00Z. SEVERE POTENTIAL FRIDAY
NIGHT REMAINS WITH BIGGEST THREATS OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NC COAST BY
MID MORNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUED TO INDICATE A DRIER TREND FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MAX TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
FRIDAY WITH LOW/MID 70S INLAND TO LOW/MID 60S NORTHERN OBX. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE DELMARVA REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED
WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LATEST GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GEM HAVE
SHIFTED SOLUTIONS, BUT ARE IN MODEST AGREEMENT, WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AFTERNOON THAT
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. 00Z GUIDANCE KEPT THE FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA WHILE
12Z GUIDANCE NOW MOVES THE FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NC WITH MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
DID NOT BITE OFF ENTIRELY ON 12Z SUITE BUT HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE BRIEF RIDGING MOVE
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHIFTING OFFSHORE
THURSDAY WITH NORTHEAST FLOW SHIFTING EASTERLY BY THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...WITH CONVECTION GRADUALLY
MOVING NORTH OF ALL TAF SITES...EXPECT A WARM MOIST AIRMASS TO
PREVAIL WITH SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG. GUIDANCE INDICATES
CEILINGS DROPPING INTO IFR RANGE FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE IMPROVING
WITH GOOD MIXING FROM GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AGAIN AFTER 00Z SATURDAY
WITH LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG COLD FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM FRIDAY...WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY
NORTH. WINDS STILL NE NORTH OF OREGON INLET...BUT E/SE ELSEWHERE
AND SHOULD BECOME SE/S BY LATER TONIGHT AND S/SW BY MORNING WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS ARE AT 3 TO 5 FEET. NO
MAJOR CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...TIGHTENING SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE SW WINDS 15-25 KT FRI
NIGHT WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
PAMLICO SOUND. INITIAL SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS WITH CAA IN WAKE
OF FRONT WILL BE AROUND 15 KTS AND LIMITED TO SAT MORNING.
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SECONDARY SURGE OF NE WINDS 15-20 KT EXPECTED
LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. WINDS THEN DIMINISH AND GRADUALLY
VEER TO SE SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY. WINDS VEER SOUTH TUESDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY. BLEND OF
PREVIOUS FORECAST, LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND LATEST WAVEWATCH III USED
FOR SEAS. HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 6-7 FT INTO FRI NIGHT, SUBSIDING SAT
AND THEN BUILDING AGAIN SUNDAY WITH SECONDARY NE SURGE. LIGHTER
WINDS WILL THEN ALLOW SEAS TO DROP TO 1-3 FT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ135-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JAC/JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1003 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015
SATELLITE SHOWING MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN WESTERN ND WAS SHIFTING EAST.
TWEAKED LOW TEMPS DOWN A BIT OVER PARTS OF EASTERN ND AS TEMPS WERE
FALLING AT A GOOD CLIP THIS EVENING. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015
WILL CHECK OVER DIURNAL CURVE AND PROBABLY SLOW DOWN HOURLY TEMPS
FALLS FOR TONIGHT. ALSO WILL TWEAK WINDS. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES
AT THIS UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR SHORT TERM WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOWS AND
POTENTIAL FOR SOME WEAK CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTN. FOR IMMEDIATE
SHORT TERM...HI RES MODELS HAVE DONE DECENT JOB HANDLING TODAYS
HOURLY TEMPS...WITH 8 AM RUC RUN VERIFYING FAIRLY WELL WITH 3 PM
OBSERVED TEMPS. HOWEVER...THIS HAS ONLY BEEN THE CASE IN REGIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY WHERE DAYTIME MIXING HAS BEEN THE
HIGHEST. THEREFORE USING RUC AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPS THROUGH
03Z...BUT NEEDING TO COOL OFF THE FAR EAST AND WEST WHERE WINDS
ARE SLIGHTLY LESS. USED A FCST BLENDS FOR LOW POPS TOMORROW AFTN.
TONIGHT...A SIGNIFICANT LLJ WILL DEVELOP...WITH H850 WINDS AROUND
50 KTS OVER N CNTRL MN BY 03Z. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP WELL INTO
THE EVENING FOR THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES...AND
USING RUC HOURLY TEMPS FOR THESE REGIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
SOUTHERN VALLEY MAY STAY IN THE MID 50S WITH SOME MIXING
CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. TOUGHER AREA TO FCST WILL BE
SOUTHEAST WHERE DAYTIME HIGHS WERE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER HOWEVER
THE AXIS OF THE LLJ WILL SHIFT OVER THAT AREA...WHEN THE LLJ
STRENGTHENS...IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALSO POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHOWERS/CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE EAST TOWARD MORNING.
MEANWHILE BY EARLY MORNING WE WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN SKY IN THE
NORTHWEST AS MID CLOUDS NOW OVER MT ADVECT EAST...WITH SOME SHRA
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT IN CNTRL ND.
TOMORROW...WILL SEE MORE SHRA AND POSSIBLY TSRA DEVELOP OVER N
CNTRL MN BUT THE BEST THREAT FOR ANY HELPFUL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE EAST OF THE CWA. APPROACHING FROM FROM THE WEST MAY PRODUCE
SOME RAINFALL SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 2...WITH SOME
COOLER TEMPS ADVECTING IN DURING THE DAY. MAX TEMPS IN THE VALLEY
AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN MN MAY OCCUR IN THE EARLY AFTN AND REMAIN
STEADY OF FALL SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTN. COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS ENTIRE CWA BY 00Z MON.
TOMORROW NIGHT...COOLER AIRMASS WILL BRING OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN
INTO THE 30S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR ZERO IN THE FAR NORTHWEST
AND AROUND LAKE OF THE WOODS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015
MONDAY WILL BE DRY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND 60. BREEZY WESTERLY
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT...WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF WARM
WEATHER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN
HOW MUCH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE WILL GET DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
FRONTS MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NRN TIER OF
THE U.S. 12Z ECMWF IS VERY MUCH SPLIT FLOW AND KEEPS THE SRN STREAM
MOISTURE WELL TO OUR SOUTH UNTIL SYSTEM MOVES TO OUR EAST OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. 12Z GFS/GEM REMAINS A BIT WETTER WITH FRONT
MOVING THROUGH WED AFTN-EVE. WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC POPS FOR
SHOWERS. NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE EAST WILL COME LATE SATURDAY...WHICH
WILL THE SAME MOISTURE ISSUES THAN THE MID WEEK ONE WILL HAVE. LOOK
FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE AREA...BUT STILL 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS INDICATED CLOUDS SCATTERED AT 10 TO 11
THOUSAND FT...MOSTLY ON THE MN SIDE OF THE RED RIVER. A MORE SOLID
DECK AT 11 TO 12 THOUSAND FT WAS OVER EASTERN MT AND WESTERN ND.
EXPECT MT CLOUD DECK TO SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING AND MOVE OVER
GFK/FAR AROUND 06Z/08Z RESPECTIVELY. WIND SHIFT EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE FAR/GFK AREA SUN MORNING 12Z-15Z...FOLLOWED BY COLDER AIR
COUPLE HOURS LATER.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOW RH WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH ON SUNDAY...WITH WINDS
BECOMING GUSTY FROM THE WEST IN ITS WAKE. WHILE TEMPS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT COOLER ON SUNDAY...DEEP MIXING WILL RESULT IN LOW RH
VALUES...LOWEST WEST OF THE VALLEY. NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER SE ND...BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD AND
TEMP TRENDS. RH MAY BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER FARTHER EAST WHERE THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR LATER. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE START OF THE WEEK...WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS AND VERY
DRY AIR (RH NEAR OR UNDER 20 PERCENT) POSSIBLY LEADING TO CRITICAL
CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY. TUESDAY MAY BE ANOTHER CRITICAL OR NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER
AVIATION...HOPPES
FIRE WEATHER...MAKOWSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
658 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015
WILL CHECK OVER DIURNAL CURVE AND PROBABLY SLOW DOWN HOURLY TEMPS
FALLS FOR TONIGHT. ALSO WILL TWEAK WINDS. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES
AT THIS UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR SHORT TERM WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOWS AND
POTENTIAL FOR SOME WEAK CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTN. FOR IMMEDIATE
SHORT TERM...HI RES MODELS HAVE DONE DECENT JOB HANDLING TODAYS
HOURLY TEMPS...WITH 8 AM RUC RUN VERIFYING FAIRLY WELL WITH 3 PM
OBSERVED TEMPS. HOWEVER...THIS HAS ONLY BEEN THE CASE IN REGIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY WHERE DAYTIME MIXING HAS BEEN THE
HIGHEST. THEREFORE USING RUC AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPS THROUGH
03Z...BUT NEEDING TO COOL OFF THE FAR EAST AND WEST WHERE WINDS
ARE SLIGHTLY LESS. USED A FCST BLENDS FOR LOW POPS TOMORROW AFTN.
TONIGHT...A SIGNIFICANT LLJ WILL DEVELOP...WITH H850 WINDS AROUND
50 KTS OVER N CNTRL MN BY 03Z. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP WELL INTO
THE EVENING FOR THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES...AND
USING RUC HOURLY TEMPS FOR THESE REGIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
SOUTHERN VALLEY MAY STAY IN THE MID 50S WITH SOME MIXING
CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. TOUGHER AREA TO FCST WILL BE
SOUTHEAST WHERE DAYTIME HIGHS WERE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER HOWEVER
THE AXIS OF THE LLJ WILL SHIFT OVER THAT AREA...WHEN THE LLJ
STRENGTHENS...IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALSO POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHOWERS/CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE EAST TOWARD MORNING.
MEANWHILE BY EARLY MORNING WE WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN SKY IN THE
NORTHWEST AS MID CLOUDS NOW OVER MT ADVECT EAST...WITH SOME SHRA
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT IN CNTRL ND.
TOMORROW...WILL SEE MORE SHRA AND POSSIBLY TSRA DEVELOP OVER N
CNTRL MN BUT THE BEST THREAT FOR ANY HELPFUL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE EAST OF THE CWA. APPROACHING FROM FROM THE WEST MAY PRODUCE
SOME RAINFALL SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 2...WITH SOME
COOLER TEMPS ADVECTING IN DURING THE DAY. MAX TEMPS IN THE VALLEY
AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN MN MAY OCCUR IN THE EARLY AFTN AND REMAIN
STEADY OF FALL SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTN. COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS ENTIRE CWA BY 00Z MON.
TOMORROW NIGHT...COOLER AIRMASS WILL BRING OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN
INTO THE 30S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR ZERO IN THE FAR NORTHWEST
AND AROUND LAKE OF THE WOODS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015
MONDAY WILL BE DRY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND 60. BREEZY WESTERLY
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT...WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF WARM
WEATHER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN
HOW MUCH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE WILL GET DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
FRONTS MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NRN TIER OF
THE U.S. 12Z ECMWF IS VERY MUCH SPLIT FLOW AND KEEPS THE SRN STREAM
MOISTURE WELL TO OUR SOUTH UNTIL SYSTEM MOVES TO OUR EAST OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. 12Z GFS/GEM REMAINS A BIT WETTER WITH FRONT
MOVING THROUGH WED AFTN-EVE. WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC POPS FOR
SHOWERS. NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE EAST WILL COME LATE SATURDAY...WHICH
WILL THE SAME MOISTURE ISSUES THAN THE MID WEEK ONE WILL HAVE. LOOK
FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE AREA...BUT STILL 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS INDICATED CLOUDS SCATTERED AT 10 TO 11
THOUSAND FT...MOSTLY ON THE MN SIDE OF THE RED RIVER. A MORE SOLID
DECK AT 11 TO 12 THOUSAND FT WAS OVER EASTERN MT AND WESTERN ND.
EXPECT MT CLOUD DECK TO SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING AND MOVE OVER
GFK/FAR AROUND 06Z/08Z RESPECTIVELY. WIND SHIFT EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE FAR/GFK AREA SUN MORNING 12Z-15Z...FOLLOWED BY COLDER AIR
COUPLE HOURS LATER.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOW RH WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH ON SUNDAY...WITH WINDS
BECOMING GUSTY FROM THE WEST IN ITS WAKE. WHILE TEMPS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT COOLER ON SUNDAY...DEEP MIXING WILL RESULT IN LOW RH
VALUES...LOWEST WEST OF THE VALLEY. NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER SE ND...BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD AND
TEMP TRENDS. RH MAY BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER FARTHER EAST WHERE THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR LATER. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE START OF THE WEEK...WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS AND VERY
DRY AIR (RH NEAR OR UNDER 20 PERCENT) POSSIBLY LEADING TO CRITICAL
CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY. TUESDAY MAY BE ANOTHER CRITICAL OR NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ008-016-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>005-007-
008-013>015-022-023-027>031-040.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER
AVIATION...HOPPES
FIRE WEATHER...MAKOWSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1231 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
LATE EVENING FORECASTER LOWERED SKY COVER WEST AND ACCOUNTED FOR
SOME LOW CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LATEST RAP/HRRR
STILL INDICATED LOWER CLOUDS POSSIBLY GRAZING THE JAMESTOWN AREA.
WILL MONITOR BUT WILL STICK WITH CURRENT FORECAST FOR NOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
FOR LATE EVENING UPDATE HAVE DROPPED CLOUD COVER DOWN QUITE A BIT
WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. ONLY CONCERN WITH
CLOUD COVER IS FOR LATER TONIGHT AS SOME LOW CLOUDS TO THE WEST OF
LAKE MANITOBA ARE TRYING TO SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTHWARD. THIS MAY
GRAZE PARTS OF FAR NORTH CENTRAL LATE TONIGHT. ONLY OTHER CHANGE
TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ADD SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
PART OF THE STATE THAT RECEIVED ACCUMULATING SNOW LAST NIGHT. WITH
TODAYS MELTING...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE AS WINDS
ARE GOING CALM AND TEMPERATURE CONTINUES TO DROP. UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS STILL ON TRACK TO DIMINISH BY
AROUND SUNSET. OTHERWISE...A QUIET EVENING IS EXPECTED AS SKIES
CLEAR UP AND ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS COME TO AN END LATER THIS
EVENING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE A
QUIET TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
CURRENTLY...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND A STRONG S/WV MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. LARGE CU FIELD DEVELOPING AS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW SHOWERS POPPING UP WITHIN THE
CU AS THE HRRR AND 4KM WRF ADVERTISED. DOUBTFUL MUCH WILL REACH
THE GROUND BUT WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST NOW THROUGH
03Z. WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30KTS AS WE MIX TO AROUND 700MB AND
SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND SUNDOWN...THEN DISSIPATE QUICKLY.
WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE SHOWER ACTIVITY...AIDED WITH
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING BENEATH THE CLOUD BASES AS PRECIPITATION
FALLS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT
CLEARING THE SKY. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES SOUTH AND EAST FRIDAY
ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW/WAA INTO THE REGION. DECENT DAY FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND A RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM INCLUDE STRONG AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY - WITH POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES - AND AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH SETTING UP FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE AREA TO THE EAST
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND APPROACHES
NORTH DAKOTA. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPANDS
EASTWARD AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. MEANWHILE A SURFACE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
SATURDAY NIGHT: UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REACHES NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF AND
ALONG AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST.
SUNDAY: THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY...AND
65 TO 75 TUESDAY.
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EMERGES IN
THE WESTERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...CROSSING THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE DURING THIS TIME...WITH
HIGHS 50 TO 60 WEDNESDAY...AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KISN KDIK KMOT AND KBIS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE KJMS WHERE LATEST
RAP/HRRR STILL INDICATE A PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS GRAZING OUR
EASTERN FORECAST AREA INCLUDING KJMS. CURRENTLY MAINLY VFR
CEILINGS OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND MOVING INTO NORTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA. FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION A SCATTERED LAYER OF MVFR CLOUDS
AND SEE HOW THINGS PROGRESS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT SOUTHERLY ON
FRIDAY. KJMS WILL SEE A NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
SUNDAY: STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH
POSSIBLE. HIGHS OF 55 TO 60 EXPECTED...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT SOUTHWEST TO AROUND 25 PERCENT
NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH. RECENT RAIN AND SNOWFALL OVER THE REGION IS
NOTED...AND WEATHER DORMANT GRASSES WILL HAVE TIME TO DRY OUT IS THE
MAIN QUESTION.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1141 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
MADE SOME FURTHER TWEAKS TO POPS AND WEATHER. THE PRECIP IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA HAS BEEN ALL RAIN SO FAR. HOWEVER...THERE HAS
BEEN SOME PRECIP DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE ALONG
THE DEFORMATION ZONE AND WINNIPEG HAS STARTED REPORTING SOME SNOW.
HAVE A SECOND ROUND COMING IN LATER TONIGHT SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST
THAN CURRENT PRECIP OVER OUR FAR EASTERN TIER. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS AN INCH OR TWO
AT MOST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
PRETTY STRONG SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DIG TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN
CWA AND A BIT OF RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THAT AREA. MODELS DO
NOT REALLY KICK IN THE HIGHER QPF VALUES UNTIL THE 06 TO 09Z TIME
FRAME...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN CANADIAN RADAR. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA LATER
TONIGHT. THE NAM AND RAP DROP 3-4 INCHES OF SNOW IN SPOTS...BUT
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE LOWEST PART OF THE COLUMN WILL BE
STILL ABOVE ZERO SO THINK THAT THE ACCUMULATIONS ARE OVERDONE.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A RAIN SNOW MIX BUT HAVE FAIRLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS FOR NOW AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW TEMPERATURES
RESPOND AS THE SYSTEM DIGS DOWN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
TWEAKED UP WINDS A BIT THIS EVENING AS IT HAS BECOME RATHER GUSTY
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. NOT MUCH FROM THE RADAR
RETURNS IN NORTHWESTERN MN HAS BEEN REACHING THE GROUND YET...SO
WILL KEEP POPS FAIRLY LOW UNTIL THE MAIN UPPER LOW COMES DOWN
LATER TONIGHT. THE RAP HAS BEEN SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
FZRA IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM
OTHER MODELS HAVE THE COLUMN COOLING JUST AS FAST AS SFC TEMPS AND
KEEP MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX. FOR NOW WILL KEEP ANY FREEZING
PRECIP OUT BUT WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THINGS AS FURTHER MODEL
RUNS TRICKLE IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
UPPER LOW FORECASTED BY ALL MODELS TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD JUST
EAST OF THE VALLEY TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE LIKELY ENOUGH
FORCING AND MOISTURE FOR ISOLD SHOWERS. THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE FORCING...WHERE THE
P-TYPE SHOULD BE MOSTLY SNOW...WITH AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH.
HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...LEADING TO NO/MINIMAL IMPACTS. NOT MUCH CHANCE TO EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...STRONGER WAVE IN MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW
APPROACHES THE REGION ON SATURDAY...MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY.
MODELS INDICATE THAT STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE NORTHWARD FOR AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE SAT NIGHT...AT LEAST EAST OF THE VALLEY. INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH POCKETS OF STRONGER 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BRING THUNDER CHANCES. INSTABILITY IS WEAK...AND MODELS INDICATE
COVERAGE ISOLD-SCT...BUT THERE ARE ENOUGH SIGNALS TO CONTINUE THE
THUNDER MENTION. SHOWERS QUICKLY MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY. WINDY
CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY ADVISORY CRITERIA...LIKELY ON SUNDAY (DEEP
MIX LAYER WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND AVERAGE SPEEDS AROUND 35
KNOTS). THIS COULD ALSO BE A POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP IN THE LONG
TERM. ALTHOUGH LONG TERM MODELS HAVE TYPICAL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF A SYSTEM 5 TO 6 DAYS OUT...THEY ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH A DECENT WARMUP INTO THE 70S FOLLOWED BY A MID
PLAINS CYCLONE DEVELOPING AND WELCOMING SOME WELL NEEDED MOISTURE
TO THE REGION. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS OF
PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDER AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH. THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IS SHOWING THE BEST
AGREEMENT FOR PRECIPITATION AND PLANS TO CHANGE THE CHANCE POPS IN
FOR DAYS 5 AND 6.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
ALL SITES ARE VFR FOR THE MOMENT...BUT AS A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE
DIGS DOWN...THINK WE WILL SEE SOME MVFR CIGS LIKE THOSE IN
SOUTHERN MANITOBA. WESTWARD EXTENT IS MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
SO INCLUDED KGFK AND KFAR IN CIGS GOING DOWN BELOW 3000 FT FOR A
WHILE THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND POSSIBILY SNOW WILL REMAIN
CONFINED TO KTVF AND KBJI. ALL SITES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND BECOME
VFR AGAIN BY MID MORNING. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE
BELOW 12 KTS TOMORROW MORNING...THEN SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
146 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT WHICH CROSSES MIDDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. COLD
FRONT CROSSES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO CLEAR THE AREA OF POPS LIMITING LIKELY AT A
SMALL PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL WV ACCORDING TO DOPPLER RADAR.
DELAYED ABOUT 6 HOURS THE ONSET THE CONVECTION EXPECTED AHEAD OF NEXT
COLD FRONT TIMED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH AROUND 09Z...SPREADING
QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. TWEAKED HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS AS WELL.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
800 PM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK SAVE FOR WET BULB ADJUSTMENTS. WX QUIETING DOWN
UNTIL THE MAIN PRE FRONTAL CONVECTION SHOWS UP EARLY FRI MORNING.
PREV DISCN...
YET ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST...HOWEVER THE
MEAN FLOW TODAY LOOKS TO KEEP THE STRONGEST STORMS TO OUR WEST...OR
JUST CLIPPING THE WESTERN CWA. THE HIGHEST ML CAPE REMAINS WEST OF
CWA...AND WOULD EXPECT STRONGEST STORMS TO STICK CLOSER TO THIS. WE
ARE STILL FIRMLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR HOWEVER WITH CONVECTION
POPPING UP ACROSS WV SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN KENTUCKY...SO WILL
STILL HAVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DRIFTING NE ACROSS FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH. THINK THE
BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
WEST OF FORECAST AREA. IN CWA BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE IN THE WESTERN
THIRD OF CWA...ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. USED THE HRRR TO TIME THE BEST POPS...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS TOUGH TO GET EXACT. LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW IS
GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...20-30KTS AROUND 925 MB...UP TO
50-60KTS AT 500MB. THIS WILL KEEP THINGS MOVING WHICH SHOULD HELP
WITH WATER CONCERNS. MAIN CONCERN WATER-WISE WILL BE TRAINING
CELLS...ESPECIALLY ALONG ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT LINGER PARALLEL
TO THE FLOW. NO REASON TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
IN THE WETTER AREAS...THAT WERE HIT LAST NIGHT BY HEAVY RAIN...IT
WOULD LIKELY ONLY TAKE 1-1.5 INCHES IN 3 HOURS OR LESS TO START
CAUSING PROBLEMS AGAIN...WHILE AREAS THAT HAVE NOT RECEIVED AS MUCH
RAIN OVER THE LAST DAY OR TWO IT WOULD TAKE 1.5-2 IN 3 HOURS.
TRIED TO SHOW A BREAK LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...AS
CONVECTION FROM THIS AFTERNOON EXITS TO THE NE...AND A COLD FRONT
FINALLY APPROACHES FROM THE WNW. STILL HAVE ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS MENTIONED THROUGH THE NIGHT...AS WE REMAIN IN THE
WARM SECTOR.
COLD FRONT ARRIVES TO WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY MORNING. GFS/ECMWF ARE
FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TIMING WITH THE FRONT...WHILE NAM LAGS BEHIND A
BIT. DID NOT CHANGE PREVIOUS FORECAST TIMING A WHOLE LOT...BUT DID
INCREASE POPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT FORECAST OF A DRY AND MILD WEEKEND CONTINUES ONT RACK...AS
MODELS VERY CONSISTENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE OHIO
VALLEY. LOOK FOR NEAR SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BUT CHILLY
NIGHTS WITH A LARGE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS DEPICT ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MEANDERING BACK AND FORTH ACROSS
OUR REGION FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE SPECIFIC DETAILS MAY BE
DIFFERENT FOR EACH SYSTEM THAT RUNS ALONG THIS FRONT...THE GENERAL
SCENARIO IS FOR WARM...MOIST AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE
TO PRESENT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANYTIME FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS UNDER SOUTH
SOUTHWEST FLOW. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AFTER 08-09Z
WITH CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OH...SPREADING EAST THROUGH NOON INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
THROUGH THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY BY STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA.
BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND THEN VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
ANOTHER MINOR DETAIL...AN MVFR STRATOCU DECK MAY APPROACH BKW FROM
THE GREENBRIER VALLEY FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF THE FLOW
THERE VEERS FURTHER THAN 180.
MODERATE TO STRONG SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME
MODERATE W BEHIND THE FRONT FRI AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS/STORMS COULD
VARY. MVFR STRATOCU DECK MAY OR MAY NOT MAKE IT INTO BKW OVERNIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 04/10/15
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M H H H M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H M M M H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M H H H H
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-
013-014-017-019-020.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ015-016-018-
024>032-037>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-
075-076-083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-
105.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...ARJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1217 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT WHICH CROSSES MIDDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. COLD
FRONT CROSSES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO CLEAR THE AREA OF POPS LIMITING LIKELY AT A
SMALL PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL WV ACCORDING TO DOPPLER RADAR.
DELAYED ABOUT 6 HOURS THE ONSET THE CONVECTION EXPECTED AHEAD OF NEXT
COLD FRONT TIMED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH AROUND 09Z...SPREADING
QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. TWEAKED HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS AS WELL.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
800 PM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK SAVE FOR WET BULB ADJUSTMENTS. WX QUIETING DOWN
UNTIL THE MAIN PRE FRONTAL CONVECTION SHOWS UP EARLY FRI MORNING.
PREV DISCN...
YET ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST...HOWEVER THE
MEAN FLOW TODAY LOOKS TO KEEP THE STRONGEST STORMS TO OUR WEST...OR
JUST CLIPPING THE WESTERN CWA. THE HIGHEST ML CAPE REMAINS WEST OF
CWA...AND WOULD EXPECT STRONGEST STORMS TO STICK CLOSER TO THIS. WE
ARE STILL FIRMLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR HOWEVER WITH CONVECTION
POPPING UP ACROSS WV SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN KENTUCKY...SO WILL
STILL HAVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DRIFTING NE ACROSS FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH. THINK THE
BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
WEST OF FORECAST AREA. IN CWA BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE IN THE WESTERN
THIRD OF CWA...ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. USED THE HRRR TO TIME THE BEST POPS...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS TOUGH TO GET EXACT. LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW IS
GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...20-30KTS AROUND 925 MB...UP TO
50-60KTS AT 500MB. THIS WILL KEEP THINGS MOVING WHICH SHOULD HELP
WITH WATER CONCERNS. MAIN CONCERN WATER-WISE WILL BE TRAINING
CELLS...ESPECIALLY ALONG ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT LINGER PARALLEL
TO THE FLOW. NO REASON TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
IN THE WETTER AREAS...THAT WERE HIT LAST NIGHT BY HEAVY RAIN...IT
WOULD LIKELY ONLY TAKE 1-1.5 INCHES IN 3 HOURS OR LESS TO START
CAUSING PROBLEMS AGAIN...WHILE AREAS THAT HAVE NOT RECEIVED AS MUCH
RAIN OVER THE LAST DAY OR TWO IT WOULD TAKE 1.5-2 IN 3 HOURS.
TRIED TO SHOW A BREAK LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...AS
CONVECTION FROM THIS AFTERNOON EXITS TO THE NE...AND A COLD FRONT
FINALLY APPROACHES FROM THE WNW. STILL HAVE ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS MENTIONED THROUGH THE NIGHT...AS WE REMAIN IN THE
WARM SECTOR.
COLD FRONT ARRIVES TO WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY MORNING. GFS/ECMWF ARE
FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TIMING WITH THE FRONT...WHILE NAM LAGS BEHIND A
BIT. DID NOT CHANGE PREVIOUS FORECAST TIMING A WHOLE LOT...BUT DID
INCREASE POPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT FORECAST OF A DRY AND MILD WEEKEND CONTINUES ONT RACK...AS
MODELS VERY CONSISTENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE OHIO
VALLEY. LOOK FOR NEAR SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BUT CHILLY
NIGHTS WITH A LARGE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS DEPICT ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MEANDERING BACK AND FORTH ACROSS
OUR REGION FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE SPECIFIC DETAILS MAY BE
DIFFERENT FOR EACH SYSTEM THAT RUNS ALONG THIS FRONT...THE GENERAL
SCENARIO IS FOR WARM...MOIST AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE
TO PRESENT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANYTIME FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AT EKN AT 00Z MOVED QUICKLY OFF TO THE E.
ANOTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MOVING NE THROUGH THE POINT PLEASANT
AREA WILL PASS JUST S OF PKB 0040Z.
THERE MAY BE ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING IN
THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE...ALLOWING FOR A QUIET OVERNIGHT.
THAT REPRIEVE WILL NOT LAST LONG THOUGH. A COLD FRONT CHARGING
THROUGH IL THIS EVENING WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FRI MORNING. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THE STORMS CAN BE HEAVY AND
STRONG...THEY ARE IN GENERAL NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AS THOSE THIS
PAST AFTERNOON AND EVENING WERE.
THE FRONT WILL CROSS LATE MORNING AND MIDDAY FRIDAY...FOLLOWED Y
BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND THEN VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
ANOTHER MINOR DETAIL...AN MVFR STRATOCU DECK MAY APPROACH BKW FROM
THE GREENBRIER VALLEY FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF THE FLOW
THERE VEERS FURTHER THAN 180.
SFC FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE S TO SW OVERNIGHT...BECOMING GUSTY TOWARD
FRI MORNING. STRONG AND GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY W BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE.
MODERATE TO STRONG SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME MODERATE W
BEHIND THE FRONT FRI AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS/STORMS COULD
VARY. MVFR STRATOCU DECK MAY OR MAY NOT MAKE IT INTO BKW OVERNIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 04/10/15
UTC 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
EDT 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M L M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M L M H
BKW CONSISTENCY H M M M M M H H H M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M L H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M L
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-
013-014-017-019-020.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ015-016-018-
024>032-037>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-
075-076-083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-
105.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1039 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL RETURN FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...KEEPING CONDITIONS UNSETTLED THROUGH LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM...CIRRUS HAS THINNED OUT ATOP THE CWFA ON THE IR SAT
IMAGERY. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS ARE DROPPING A LITTLE
BETTER...WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. FLOW WILL VEER
FROM NE TO SE IN THE LLVLS. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATING A
STRATOCU DECK MAY DEVELOP BY DAYBREAK ACRS THE PIEDMONT...AS
ATLANTIC MOISTURE IS LIFTED OROGRAPHICALLY AND ISENTROPICALLY. IF
THIS DOES HAPPEN...THE GOING MIN TEMPS MAY BE TOO COLD IN SPOTS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER MAY
DEVELOP...WILL LEAVE MIN TEMPS AS IS...WHICH IS A COUPLE CATEGORIES
ABOVE NORMAL ALREADY.
AS OF 730 PM...FCST STILL ON TRACK. ONLY UPDATED THE
WINDS/SKY/AVIATION GRIDS FOR THE 00Z TAFS WITH THIS UPDATE.
AS OF 430 PM...FCST ON TRACK. UPDATED THE HOURLY TEMP AND DWPT
TRENDS THRU THIS EVENING WITH THE LATEST BCCONSSHORT...WHICH LINES
UP WELL WITH THE LATEST OBS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.
A QUIET EVENING WXWISE IS ON TAP FEATURING LIGHT WINDS AND VARYING
DEGREES OF CI SPREADING ATOP THE REGION. WITH THE LLVL RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTING TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...THE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC
WILL VEER TO ESE. SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN
INCREASE IN RH AROUND 85H OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LIMITED DEGREE OF STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
HIGH TERRAIN. ON SUNDAY...LLVL RIDGE CENTER CONTINUES TO SLIDE
EAST...MAINTAINING AND SLOWLY INCREASING OUR ATLANTIC FETCH.
ALOFT...STILL VERY WEAKLY FORCED AS LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGING WILL
LINGER/BUILD ATOP THE SE CONUS. SENSIBLE WX THROUGHOUT THE DAY
SHOULD BE A MIX OF DEVELOPING CU AND CONSIDERABLE HI CLOUDS LEADING
TO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEG F BELOW PERSISTENCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY AS WE BEGIN THE SHORT TERM...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC AND RETURN FLOW
BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS COMBINED WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL BOTH SERVE TO INCREASE THE WAVE AMPLITUDE BUT WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT KICKING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN FOR THE
SHORT TERM.
POPS CREEP BACK INTO EXTREME WESTERN ZONES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE U.S./CANADA BORDER
AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST CUTOFF LOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES ABSORBED BY
THE OVERALL LONGWAVE PATTERN. A FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
MIDDLE APPALACHIANS WITH THE NORTHERN TROUGH...BUT NOT QUITE ENOUGH
PUSH ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE...WITH WEAK RIDGING REMAINING IN PLACE...
TO GET THE FRONT TO CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA. DEFINITELY SOME CONCERN
ABOUT QPF VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSLOPE AND ISENTROPIC FLOW
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WPC QPF VALUES FOR DAY 2 /12Z MONDAY TO 12Z
TUESDAY/ ARE OVER 2 INCHES IN SOME PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA AND
SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS SO TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE HELD TO ONLY A MUTED
DIURNAL TREND AS A RESULT OF THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
PRECIPITATION...WITH HIGHS AT OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL STARTING MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE HERE AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OVERALL MASS FIELDS PRETTY
SIMILAR BUT ENOUGH DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS THAT CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER...ESPECIALLY THE FARTHER OUT IN TIME YOU GO. HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE IN PLACE STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES AND
UPPER MIDWEST AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG
DIGGING CLOSED LOW OVER THE ROCKIES. CONTINUED FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...BUT WITH A SURFACE HIGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SLOWLY PUSHING EAST AND BEGINNING TO DAM DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD IN WHAT IS NOW LOOKING MORE LIKE A CLASSICAL
DAMMING PATTERN /GUIDANCE IS TRENDING FARTHER NORTH WITH THE
LOCATION OF THE PARENT HIGH/. ECMWF PUSHES PRECIPITATION SOUTH AND
WEST AS THE WEDGE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE CAROLINAS...BUT GFS INSISTS
ON MORE OF A DIABATICALLY ENHANCED ONSET WITH PRECIPITATION STAYING
PUT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. TRIED TO TAKE A GENERAL BLEND BUT IT
DEFINITELY COULD GO EITHER WAY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH A
DRIER FORECAST AS ADVERTISED BY THE ECMWF OR WETTER PER THE GFS.
EITHER WAY...ALL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING COOLER WITH THE DAMMING IN
PLACE WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS /BUT AGAIN WITHOUT MUCH OF A DIURNAL TREND DUE TO THE CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION/.
THE ROCKIES CLOSED LOW DIVES INTO NEW MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DAMMING HIGH CONTINUES TO PUMP GULF MOISTURE NORTH
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THE MOIST AND UNSETTLED PATTERN REMAINS IN
PLACE THROUGH BASICALLY THE END OF THE PERIOD OR AT LEAST UNTIL THE
SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA. 12Z GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE OVERALL
SYSTEM...NOT BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE
PERIOD. RIGHT NOW WITH AT LEAST A RESIDUAL COOL POOL IN PLACE
/THOUGH THE DAMMING HIGH BY THIS TIME HAS PUSHED WELL OFFSHORE/
CONDITIONS GENERALLY LOOK TOO STABLE FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDER
BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT/UPSTATE.
CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARD A BLEND FOR POPS AND TEMPS JUST TO ACCOUNT
FOR MODEL UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING. JUST SOME CI WITH
LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING THRU TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME MOISTENING WITHIN THE LLVL ESELY FLOW TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT WILL CONTINUE THE FEW-SCT 4000-
6000 FT STRATOCU BY DAYBREAK. ONLY THE RAP AND ITS DERIVATIVE
GUIDANCE HAS MVFR OR LOWER CIGS ACRS THE UPSTATE/KCLT BY DAYBREAK
WITHIN THE SELY LLVL FLOW.
OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER AND CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS LASTING
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z 20-00Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 98% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 98% HIGH 97% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...ARK/CSH
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...ARK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
740 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL RETURN FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...KEEPING CONDITIONS UNSETTLED THROUGH LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM...FCST STILL ON TRACK. ONLY UPDATED THE
WINDS/SKY/AVIATION GRIDS FOR THE 00Z TAFS WITH THIS UPDATE.
AS OF 430 PM...FCST ON TRACK. UPDATED THE HOURLY TEMP AND DWPT
TRENDS THRU THIS EVENING WITH THE LATEST BCCONSSHORT...WHICH LINES
UP WELL WITH THE LATEST OBS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.
A QUIET EVENING WXWISE IS ON TAP FEATURING LIGHT WINDS AND VARYING
DEGREES OF CI SPREADING ATOP THE REGION. WITH THE LLVL RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTING TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...THE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC
WILL VEER TO ESE. SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN
INCREASE IN RH AROUND 85H OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LIMITED DEGREE OF STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
HIGH TERRAIN. ON SUNDAY...LLVL RIDGE CENTER CONTINUES TO SLIDE
EAST...MAINTAINING AND SLOWLY INCREASING OUR ATLANTIC FETCH.
ALOFT...STILL VERY WEAKLY FORCED AS LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGING WILL
LINGER/BUILD ATOP THE SE CONUS. SENSIBLE WX THROUGHOUT THE DAY
SHOULD BE A MIX OF DEVELOPING CU AND CONSIDERABLE HI CLOUDS LEADING
TO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEG F BELOW PERSISTENCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY AS WE BEGIN THE SHORT TERM...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC AND RETURN FLOW
BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS COMBINED WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL BOTH SERVE TO INCREASE THE WAVE AMPLITUDE BUT WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT KICKING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN FOR THE
SHORT TERM.
POPS CREEP BACK INTO EXTREME WESTERN ZONES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE U.S./CANADA BORDER
AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST CUTOFF LOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES ABSORBED BY
THE OVERALL LONGWAVE PATTERN. A FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
MIDDLE APPALACHIANS WITH THE NORTHERN TROUGH...BUT NOT QUITE ENOUGH
PUSH ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE...WITH WEAK RIDGING REMAINING IN PLACE...
TO GET THE FRONT TO CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA. DEFINITELY SOME CONCERN
ABOUT QPF VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSLOPE AND ISENTROPIC FLOW
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WPC QPF VALUES FOR DAY 2 /12Z MONDAY TO 12Z
TUESDAY/ ARE OVER 2 INCHES IN SOME PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA AND
SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS SO TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE HELD TO ONLY A MUTED
DIURNAL TREND AS A RESULT OF THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
PRECIPITATION...WITH HIGHS AT OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL STARTING MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE HERE AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OVERALL MASS FIELDS PRETTY
SIMILAR BUT ENOUGH DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS THAT CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER...ESPECIALLY THE FARTHER OUT IN TIME YOU GO. HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE IN PLACE STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES AND
UPPER MIDWEST AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG
DIGGING CLOSED LOW OVER THE ROCKIES. CONTINUED FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...BUT WITH A SURFACE HIGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SLOWLY PUSHING EAST AND BEGINNING TO DAM DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD IN WHAT IS NOW LOOKING MORE LIKE A CLASSICAL
DAMMING PATTERN /GUIDANCE IS TRENDING FARTHER NORTH WITH THE
LOCATION OF THE PARENT HIGH/. ECMWF PUSHES PRECIPITATION SOUTH AND
WEST AS THE WEDGE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE CAROLINAS...BUT GFS INSISTS
ON MORE OF A DIABATICALLY ENHANCED ONSET WITH PRECIPITATION STAYING
PUT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. TRIED TO TAKE A GENERAL BLEND BUT IT
DEFINITELY COULD GO EITHER WAY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH A
DRIER FORECAST AS ADVERTISED BY THE ECMWF OR WETTER PER THE GFS.
EITHER WAY...ALL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING COOLER WITH THE DAMMING IN
PLACE WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS /BUT AGAIN WITHOUT MUCH OF A DIURNAL TREND DUE TO THE CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION/.
THE ROCKIES CLOSED LOW DIVES INTO NEW MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DAMMING HIGH CONTINUES TO PUMP GULF MOISTURE NORTH
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THE MOIST AND UNSETTLED PATTERN REMAINS IN
PLACE THROUGH BASICALLY THE END OF THE PERIOD OR AT LEAST UNTIL THE
SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA. 12Z GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE OVERALL
SYSTEM...NOT BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE
PERIOD. RIGHT NOW WITH AT LEAST A RESIDUAL COOL POOL IN PLACE
/THOUGH THE DAMMING HIGH BY THIS TIME HAS PUSHED WELL OFFSHORE/
CONDITIONS GENERALLY LOOK TOO STABLE FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDER
BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT/UPSTATE.
CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARD A BLEND FOR POPS AND TEMPS JUST TO ACCOUNT
FOR MODEL UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING. JUST SOME CI WITH
LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING THRU TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME MOISTENING WITHIN THE LLVL ESELY FLOW TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT WILL CONTINUE THE FEW-SCT 4000-
6000 FT STRATOCU BY DAYBREAK. ONLY THE RAP AND ITS DERIVATIVE
GUIDANCE HAS MVFR OR LOWER CIGS ACRS THE UPSTATE/KCLT BY DAYBREAK
WITHIN THE SELY LLVL FLOW.
OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER AND CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS LASTING
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
23-05Z 05-11Z 11-17Z 17-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...ARK/CSH
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...ARK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
459 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND.
MOISTURE WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT...WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM...ISOLD TO SCTD SHRA/TSRA ARE BUBBLING OVER THE WRN
UPSTATE. SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES NEARLY 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE IN
THIS AREA...WHICH IS ALSO SUBJECT TO SLIGHT LIFT IN WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT. ONE ROUND OF STORMS HAS COME AND GONE WITHIN THE PAST HOUR.
LOOKING AT RAP PROFILES AND TRENDS THEREOF IT APPEARS A WEAK CAP
ASSOCIATED WITH POOR LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY COME AND GO EARLY
THIS AM. HRRR DOES NOT PICK UP ON MUCH IN THE WAY OF DISCRETE
CONVECTION THRU DAYBREAK...SO KEPT POPS IN THE ISOLD RANGE. DID MAKE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THRU THE AM WITH THIS UPDATE TO FOCUS
MAINLY ON THE ORGANIZED LINES MOVING OUT OF TENN/ALA...WHICH ARE
TIMED TO REACH OUR WRNMOST ZONES A LITTLE AFTER 12Z.
DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AND TRACK NEWD OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES AND INTO ONTARIO TODAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACRS
THE ERN HALF OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MRNG...CROSSING THE NC
MTNS AROUND MIDDAY AND DEPARTING THE CWFA BY EARLY EVENING.
PREFRONTAL TSTMS NOW TRACKING ACRS MIDDLE TN AND NRN AL APPEAR TO BE
OUTPACING THEIR DEPICTIONS ON THE HRRR AND 4KM SPC WRF BY A COUPLE OF
HRS. MAKING THIS ADJUSTMENT THEY ARE ON TRACK TO REACH OUR WRN BORDER
BY 12-13Z. IN GENERAL MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN THIS ACTIVITY REACHING A
NOCTURNAL MINIMUM AT THAT TIME AND/OR DIMINISHING AS IT ENCOUNTERS
THE TERRAIN.
HOWEVER AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED A
STEADY WAVE OF FORCING SHOULD PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA. MOST
GUIDANCE HAS THE PIEDMONT DESTABILIZING TO THE TUNE OF 1000-1500 J/KG
BEFORE NOON AND THE FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THAT AREA DURING PEAK
HEATING...TEMPS MAXING OUT 6-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN AN AIRMASS
MORE REMINISCENT OF LATE SPRING. SOMEWHAT OF A LULL MAY COME BETWEEN
THE DYING PREFRONTAL STORMS AND THOSE THAT DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE
FRONT. 35-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT WHICH WILL BE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW STORMS TO ATTAIN SOME LINEAR ORGANIZATION...AND
MAINTAIN A MODEST DMGG WIND AND HAIL THREAT. 0-3KM HELICITY UPWARDS
OF 200 M2/S2 IS SEEN ON MODEL PROGS JUST PRIOR TO THE FROPA...AND
THIS IS A BIT CONCERNING PARTICULARLY WHERE IT OVERLAPS WITH THE MOST
SHEAR. THIS IS BASICALLY OUR LOWER PIEDMONT ZONES AND ADJACENT AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THIS AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK ON THE
DAY 1 OUTLOOK.
THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY SUNSET. COLD ADVECTION WILL GET
UNDERWAY IN THE LLVLS...MAINLY HAVING THE EFFECT OF PROLONGING GUSTY
WINDS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE GRADIENT DOES NOT LOOK ESPECIALLY
TIGHT AND PROFILES INDICATE SUB-ADVISORY GUSTS. FAIRLY RAPID CLEARING
SHOULD OCCUR...THOUGH A BIT MORE SLOWLY IN THE MTNS WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE WINDS. DESPITE THE CONTINENTAL AIRMASS MINS WILL
STILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT FRIDAY...A BROAD AND FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE SE U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND. ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY 12Z SUNDAY...WITH
COOLER THICKNESSES AND DRIER PROFILES IN PLACE THE ENTIRE WEEKEND.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO FOR
MAXES/MINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT FRIDAY...A SRN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS OK/TX
EARLY IN THE WEEK MAY SEND SHORTWAVE RIPPLES IN ADVANCE ACROSS THE
SRN APPALACHIANS MON THROUGH TUE. ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC REFLECTIONS
WILL ALSO LIKELY MOVE NE ALONG AN APPROACHING SFC COLD FRONT DRIVEN
BY A NRN STREAM SYSTEM. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN FAIRLY
QUICKLY...STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT...AND DEEPENING THROUGH THE DAY ON
MONDAY ALONG WITH IMPROVING UPGLIDE...THEN MAXIMIZING WITH THE WAVES
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE MON NIGHT INTO TUE TO CREATE THE HIGHEST POP.
EXPECT A SMALLER THAN CLIMO DIURNAL RANGE ON MAXES/MINS GIVEN THE
ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS AND ABOVE CLIMO POP.
A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT COULD PROVIDE SOME LIMITED DRYING FROM
THE N TUE NIGHT INTO WED...ALONG WITH MORE STABLE PROFILES. DEEP
LAYER SW FLOW WILL THEN RETURN WED NIGHT AND THU AS HEIGHTS FALL
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THIS COULD BE THE PRELUDE TO A
VERY ACTIVE LATE WEEK IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE AND PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT /09Z UPDATE/...DESPITE MOIST SWLY FLOW IT APPEARS VFR CIGS
FROM MID-HIGH CLOUDS IS MOST LIKELY TO HOLD ON THRU THE MRNG. FEW-
SCT LOW VFR CLOUDS MAY BE SEEN AT TIMES. MAIN STORY FOR THE DAY
TODAY IS COLD FROPA PRECEDED BY CONVECTION. DISCRETE OR LOOSELY
ORGANIZED CELLS MAY DEVELOP BY MIDDAY BUT OMITTED A TS MENTION
AT THAT TIME...AS THE BEST CHANCES WILL COME LATER IN THE AFTN AS
THE FRONT ARRIVES BRINGING THE BEST FORCING. A TEMPO FOR MVFR
CIGS/VSBY IN TSRA WAS INCLUDED WHEN CHANCE IS GREATEST. CU BASES
SHOULD GENERALLY FORM ABOVE THE VFR THRESHOLD AWAY FROM ANY TS. TS
TAKING A DIRECT HIT ON THE FIELD WOULD LIKELY BRING BRIEF IFR VSBY.
WITH BRISK MIDLEVEL FLOW TAPPED BY MIXING...WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT TS WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG TO
PERHAPS EVEN SEVERE GUSTS. PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISH BY SUNSET WITH
WSHFT TO NW OCCURRING MID-LATE EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...VFR OVERNIGHT WITH SFC DEWPTS BEING LOW ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE FOG...THOUGH IT WILL BE WISE TO MONITOR UPSTREAM OVER
AL/GA FOR DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS THAT COULD POTENTIALLY ADVECT
IN BY DAWN. TRENDS GENERALLY AS AT KCLT BUT WITH CONVECTION
ARRIVING EARLIER. LATEST MESO GUIDANCE BRINGS CONVECTION INTO THE
MTNS AS SOON AS 12-13Z. USED TEMPO GROUPS DURING TIME OF PEAK TSRA
CHANCES TO MENTION PSBL VSBY RESTRICTIONS. IFR CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION IF A SITE TAKES A DIRECT HIT FROM A TS...BUT FEEL MORE
CONFIDENT JUST MENTIONING MVFR. WINDS WILL SWING TO NW AFTER THE
FROPA...MID AFTN AT KAVL BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER SUNSET IN THE
PIEDMONT.
OUTLOOK...A DRY AIR MASS WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL SURGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS ON MONDAY AND MAY LINGER INTO THE MIDDLE TO LATE WORK WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
09-15Z 15-21Z 21-03Z 03-06Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% LOW 56% MED 71% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 81% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% MED 75% MED 76% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% LOW 56% MED 71% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% MED 64% HIGH 85% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
316 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND.
MOISTURE WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT...WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM...GENTLE LLVL WARM ADVECTION IS PROVIDING A BIT OF
LIFT...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM REMAINING ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVER THE WRN UPSTATE. MOIST SW FLOW CONTINUES AT THE
SFC...BUT LOW STRATUS ADVECTING IN FROM THE COAST LOOKS UNLIKELY.
UPSTREAM OBS HAVE YET TO INDICATE ANY AND GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF
EARLIER EXPECTATIONS OF LOW CIGS.
DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AND TRACK NEWD OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES AND INTO ONTARIO TODAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACRS
THE ERN HALF OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MRNG...CROSSING THE NC
MTNS AROUND MIDDAY AND DEPARTING THE CWFA BY EARLY EVENING.
PREFRONTAL TSTMS NOW TRACKING ACRS MIDDLE TN AND NRN AL APPEAR TO BE
OUTPACING THEIR DEPICTIONS ON THE HRRR AND 4KM SPC WRF BY A COUPLE OF
HRS. MAKING THIS ADJUSTMENT THEY ARE ON TRACK TO REACH OUR WRN BORDER
BY 12-13Z. IN GENERAL MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN THIS ACTIVITY REACHING A
NOCTURNAL MINIMUM AT THAT TIME AND/OR DIMINISHING AS IT ENCOUNTERS
THE TERRAIN.
HOWEVER AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED A
STEADY WAVE OF FORCING SHOULD PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA. MOST
GUIDANCE HAS THE PIEDMONT DESTABILIZING TO THE TUNE OF 1000-1500 J/KG
BEFORE NOON AND THE FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THAT AREA DURING PEAK
HEATING...TEMPS MAXING OUT 6-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN AN AIRMASS
MORE REMINISCENT OF LATE SPRING. SOMEWHAT OF A LULL MAY COME BETWEEN
THE DYING PREFRONTAL STORMS AND THOSE THAT DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE
FRONT. 35-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT WHICH WILL BE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW STORMS TO ATTAIN SOME LINEAR ORGANIZATION...AND
MAINTAIN A MODEST DMGG WIND AND HAIL THREAT. 0-3KM HELICITY UPWARDS
OF 200 M2/S2 IS SEEN ON MODEL PROGS JUST PRIOR TO THE FROPA...AND
THIS IS A BIT CONCERNING PARTICULARLY WHERE IT OVERLAPS WITH THE MOST
SHEAR. THIS IS BASICALLY OUR LOWER PIEDMONT ZONES AND ADJACENT AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THIS AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK ON THE
DAY 1 OUTLOOK.
THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY SUNSET. COLD ADVECTION WILL GET
UNDERWAY IN THE LLVLS...MAINLY HAVING THE EFFECT OF PROLONGING GUSTY
WINDS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE GRADIENT DOES NOT LOOK ESPECIALLY
TIGHT AND PROFILES INDICATE SUB-ADVISORY GUSTS. FAIRLY RAPID CLEARING
SHOULD OCCUR...THOUGH A BIT MORE SLOWLY IN THE MTNS WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE WINDS. DESPITE THE CONTINENTAL AIRMASS MINS WILL
STILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT FRIDAY...A BROAD AND FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE SE U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND. ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY 12Z SUNDAY...WITH
COOLER THICKNESSES AND DRIER PROFILES IN PLACE THE ENTIRE WEEKEND.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO FOR
MAXES/MINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT FRIDAY...A SRN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS OK/TX
EARLY IN THE WEEK MAY SEND SHORTWAVE RIPPLES IN ADVANCE ACROSS THE
SRN APPALACHIANS MON THROUGH TUE. ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC REFLECTIONS
WILL ALSO LIKELY MOVE NE ALONG AN APPROACHING SFC COLD FRONT DRIVEN
BY A NRN STREAM SYSTEM. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN FAIRLY
QUICKLY...STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT...AND DEEPENING THROUGH THE DAY ON
MONDAY ALONG WITH IMPROVING UPGLIDE...THEN MAXIMIZING WITH THE WAVES
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE MON NIGHT INTO TUE TO CREATE THE HIGHEST POP.
EXPECT A SMALLER THAN CLIMO DIURNAL RANGE ON MAXES/MINS GIVEN THE
ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS AND ABOVE CLIMO POP.
A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT COULD PROVIDE SOME LIMITED DRYING FROM
THE N TUE NIGHT INTO WED...ALONG WITH MORE STABLE PROFILES. DEEP
LAYER SW FLOW WILL THEN RETURN WED NIGHT AND THU AS HEIGHTS FALL
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THIS COULD BE THE PRELUDE TO A
VERY ACTIVE LATE WEEK IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE AND PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...DESPITE MOIST SWLY FLOW IT APPEARS VFR CIGS FROM MID-HIGH
CLOUDS IS MOST LIKELY TO HOLD ON THRU THE MRNG...WITH THE GUIDANCE
PROGGING RESTRICTIONS ALREADY PROVING TOO LOW...AND NO SUCH CIGS
SEEN UPSTREAM. FEW-SCT LOW VFR CLOUDS MAY BE SEEN AT TIMES. MAIN
STORY FOR THE DAY TODAY IS COLD FROPA PRECEDED BY CONVECTION.
DISCRETE OR LOOSELY ORGANIZED CELLS MAY DEVELOP BY MIDDAY...WITH
CHANCES WARRANTING A PROB30. THE BEST CHANCES WILL COME MID TO
LATE AFTN AS THE FRONT ARRIVES BRINGING THE BEST FORCING. CU BASES
SHOULD GENERALLY FORM ABOVE THE VFR THRESHOLD AWAY FROM ANY TS. TS
TAKING A DIRECT HIT ON THE FIELD WOULD LIKELY BRING BRIEF IFR VSBY.
WITH BRISK MIDLEVEL FLOW TAPPED BY MIXING...WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT TS WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG TO
PERHAPS EVEN SEVERE GUSTS. PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISH BY SUNSET WITH
WSHFT TO NW OCCURRING MID-LATE EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...VFR OVERNIGHT WITH SFC DEWPTS BEING LOW ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE FOG...THOUGH IT WILL BE WISE TO MONITOR UPSTREAM OVER
AL/GA FOR DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS THAT COULD POTENTIALLY ADVECT
IN BY DAWN. TRENDS GENERALLY AS AT KCLT BUT WITH CONVECTION
ARRIVING EARLIER. LATEST MESO GUIDANCE BRINGS CONVECTION INTO THE
MTNS AS SOON AS 13-14Z. USED TEMPO GROUPS DURING TIME OF PEAK TSRA
CHANCES TO MENTION PSBL VSBY RESTRICTIONS. IFR CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION IF A SITE TAKES A DIRECT HIT FROM A TS...BUT FEEL MORE
CONFIDENT JUST MENTIONING MVFR. WINDS WILL SWING TO NW AFTER THE
FROPA...MID AFTN AT KAVL BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER SUNSET IN THE
PIEDMONT.
OUTLOOK...A DRY AIR MASS WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL SURGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS ON MONDAY AND MAY LINGER INTO THE MIDDLE TO LATE WORK WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
07-13Z 13-19Z 19-01Z 01-06Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 94% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% MED 68% MED 67% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 87% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 83% HIGH 86% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% MED 70% MED 67% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% MED 68% HIGH 89% HIGH 96%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
552 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2015
.DISCUSSION...
See 00z aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
Areas of rain and thunderstorms are expected to expand northward
after 00z to include southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin.
This convection is expected to shift eastward tomorrow, but MAF and
FST will still have a slight chance of thunderstorms in the
afternoon. There is a chance of low ceilings coming into the area
tonight around 12z with the best chance being in HOB. Winds will
generally be out of the south to southeast throughout the period and
should decrease in strength overnight then increase again Saturday
afternoon.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 150 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SE-E surface winds have increased across the Trans Pecos/PB this PM
as surface high moves e and surface pressure falls. Upslope flow per
mesoscale models (TTU WRF, NAM12, HRRR) looks well organized, enuf
so that dwpnts will increase to near 50 on on east slopes of Davis
Mtns and M50s thru Glass Mtns. Instability looks to be modulated by
mid level LRs of 7.5 C/KM and 0-1km CAPES increase by 00Z to near
1500 J/KG in said area. Looks to be a good set-up for tstms to
initiate in the mtns where SB CINH not much of an issue and then
move e-ne. Kinematics are also favorable for severe wx (large hail)
with 0-6 km bulk shear 40-50kts. In this set-up, the surface thermal
ridge and axis of highest dwpnts are near co-located. HRRR develops
QPF at 22Z NW of FST and depicts what may well be a right-moving
supercell across Pecos Co later this PM. Overnight there is an
indication that the arrival energy assocd shrtwv trof in the sw flow
aloft and 40kt LLJ may renew the development of convection,
especially s of I-20. Convective potential will wane Sat, but still
exists. Isold-Sct tstms INVOF Davis/Glass Mtns and across the ern PB,
respectively. Sunday more robust PoPs are warranted with backed mid
level flow ahead of an upper low sw of El Paso City, helping to hold
low level mstr in place. 5h jet of 50-60kts will help provide lift.
0-6km bulk shear increases late, but LR/s are not very good, so for
now severe potential looks to be minimized. There`s enuf of a backed
flow/mstr/potential for rain cooled air to keeps temps INVOF of
normal ranges thru Sunday. Said low will lift newd to w-nw of MAF
and this will increase the PoPs Monday n of the area, moreso in the
LBB area. However cool mid levels near the center of low will be
enough to keep sct PoPs, especially along n of I-20. An assocd cold
front will pass thru the area either Mon PM or Mon night, so cooler
and drier Tue. Another front will be possible Wed night/Thursday
morning, so cool/dry for Thur PM. We`ll watch for the potential for
low level mstr return Friday which will augment PoPs.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
99
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
150 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SE-E surface winds have increased across the Trans Pecos/PB this PM as
surface high moves e and surface pressure falls. Upslope flow per
mesoscale models (TTU WRF, NAM12, HRRR) looks well organized, enuf
so that dwpnts will increase to near 50 on on east slopes of Davis
Mtns and M50s thru Glass Mtns. Instability looks to be modulated by
mid level LRs of 7.5 C/KM and 0-1km CAPES increase by 00Z to near
1500 J/KG in said area. Looks to be a good set-up for tstms to initiate
in the mtns where SB CINH not much of an issue and then move e-ne.
Kinematics are also favorable for severe wx (large hail) with 0-6
km bulk shear 40-50kts. In this set-up, the surface thermal ridge
and axis of highest dwpnts are near co-located. HRRR develops QPF
at 22Z NW of FST and depicts what may well be a right-moving
supercell across Pecos Co later this PM. Overnight there is an
indication that the arrival energy assocd shrtwv trof in the sw flow
aloft and 40kt LLJ may renew the development of convection, especially
s of I-20. Convective potential will wane Sat, but still exists.
Isold-Sct tstms INVOF Davis/Glass Mtns and across the ern PB,
respectively. Sunday more robust PoPs are warranted with backed
mid level flow ahead of an upper low sw of El Paso City, helping to
hold low level mstr in place. 5h jet of 50-60kts will help provide
lift. 0-6km bulk shear increases late, but LR/s are not very good,
so for now severe potential looks to be minimized. There`s enuf of a
backed flow/mstr/potential for rain cooled air to keeps temps INVOF
of normal ranges thru Sunday. Said low will lift newd to w-nw of MAF
and this will increase the PoPs Monday n of the area, moreso in the
LBB area. However cool mid levels near the center of low will be
enough to keep sct PoPs, especially along n of I-20. An assocd
cold front will pass thru the area either Mon PM or Mon night, so
cooler and drier Tue. Another front will be possible Wed night/Thursday
morning, so cool/dry for Thur PM. We`ll watch for the potential for
low level mstr return Friday which will augment PoPs.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 59 79 59 77 / 30 20 10 40
BIG SPRING TX 61 78 62 81 / 20 40 10 50
CARLSBAD NM 53 85 53 77 / 30 10 10 30
DRYDEN TX 64 81 65 83 / 60 40 20 50
FORT STOCKTON TX 62 82 61 80 / 60 20 20 40
GUADALUPE PASS TX 54 77 48 68 / 40 10 10 30
HOBBS NM 55 79 58 75 / 30 10 10 40
MARFA TX 49 77 51 72 / 60 10 20 40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 61 79 61 79 / 40 30 20 50
ODESSA TX 61 79 61 78 / 40 20 10 50
WINK TX 61 84 58 80 / 50 20 10 40
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
132 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
.UPDATE...
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD MOVING EAST OF THE REGION. THERE IS SOME CLEARING TO OUR
WEST AND IF ENOUGH HEATING CAN BE REALIZED...WE COULD SEE SOME
LATE AFTERNOON STORMS DEVELOP WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE...THEN MOVE
INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMEST TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE
PLAINS...WHILE AREAS EAST OF I-35 WILL REMAIN COOLEST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2015/
AVIATION.../18Z TAF CYCLE/
SHRA SHIELD IS SHIFTING EAST OF ALL THE TAF SITES THIS HOUR WITH
SOME -SHRA LINGERING AT KAUS THROUGH THE NEXT HALF HOUR. ALL SITES
ARE VFR AND SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. LOWER MVFR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 03Z
FOR CENTRAL TAF SITES AND KDRT NEAR 06-09Z. CIGS SHOULD LOWER
FURTHER THROUGH DAWN TO IFR TO POSSIBLY LIFR. A SLOW CLIMB
UPWARDS THROUGH THE MORNING AFTERNOON WITH OCCUR TOWARDS MVFR.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NNE NEAR 10 KT AND DROP TO LESS THAN 5KT
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE BECOMING MORE EASTERLY.
A STRONGER WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING A ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA TO MOST
SITES. HAVE PLACED VCSH AND VCTS ACCORDINGLY WHEN BEST WINDOW FOR
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO OCCUR. DIRECT TSRA AND SHRA INCLUSION WILL
LIKELY COME ON SUBSEQUENT UPDATES. LOCALIZED VISIBILITY DROPS COULD
OCCUR IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS IF A STRONGER STORM DIRECTLY IMPACTS A
TERMINAL. /ALLEN/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 808 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015/
UPDATE...
BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH SOME CONSIDERATION OF
THE HRRR MODEL...WE HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE
HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR. WE HAVE ALSO DECREASED HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY GIVEN ONGOING RADAR TRENDS...NORTHERLY WINDS
AND CLOUD COVER.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015/
UPDATE...
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES BETWEEN SAN ANTONIO...
KERRVILLE AND UVALDE. HAVE BOOSTED POPS THROUGH MID MORNING FOR
THIS AREA. ALSO...STRONGER WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED ALONG I-35
FROM NORTHEAST OF SAN ANTONIO TO AUSTIN. HAVE BOOSTED WINDS FOR
THIS MORNING IN THAT AREA. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
A COLD FRONT ALONG A LANGTRY TO SAN ANTONIO TO GIDDINGS LINE
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH WITH RADARS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND IT FROM SAN ANTONIO INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
HILL COUNTRY. SOME SHOWERS ALSO NOTED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
FRONT IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER WITH SOME DRYING OVER NORTHERN
AREAS AS SEEN BY DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND EVEN SOME UPPER 40S OVER
THE FAR NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY. A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS DEVELOPED
EARLIER. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING CAP WITH INCREASING CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION TAKING HOLD WEAKENED THEM. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER
SOUTHERN TEXAS LATER TODAY. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
TODAY WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND UPWARD FORCING WILL BE
MAXIMIZED. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG STORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN
RIO GRANDE PLAINS DUE TO CAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG. SOME DRIER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO OUR AREA SHIFTING BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC
LIFT DEVELOPS SATURDAY AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES AND A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS TEXAS INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL AREAS. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE TODAY AND SATURDAY.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED
ABOUT 700 MILES WEST OF POINT CONCEPTION ON THE CALIFORNIA COAST
MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. UPWARD
FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE. THERE REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY THAT AN MCS WILL FORM OFF THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO OF
MEXICO AND THEN MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS DUE TO LOW
TO MID LEVEL WIND SHEAR. ALSO...PWS AROUND 1.5 INCHES INDICATE A
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER
TROUGH TRANSITIONS INTO A WEAK SHEAR AXIS AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN RAIN LATE
MONDAY...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RESUME AND CONTINUE
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS TEXAS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS. A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE
ACROSS LATE THURSDAY WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ENDING IN ITS WAKE BY NEXT FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 63 76 67 79 67 / 20 50 50 60 70
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 61 75 66 78 66 / 20 50 50 60 70
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 63 78 66 80 67 / 20 50 50 60 70
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 59 74 65 78 64 / 20 50 40 50 70
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 67 79 68 81 64 / 40 50 40 50 60
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 59 75 65 78 66 / 20 50 50 60 70
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 64 78 67 80 66 / 20 50 50 60 70
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 63 77 66 79 67 / 20 50 50 60 70
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 65 77 68 79 69 / 20 60 50 70 70
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 64 78 68 80 67 / 20 50 50 60 70
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 65 78 68 80 67 / 20 60 50 60 70
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1253 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF CYCLE/
SHRA SHIELD IS SHIFTING EAST OF ALL THE TAF SITES THIS HOUR WITH
SOME -SHRA LINGERING AT KAUS THROUGH THE NEXT HALF HOUR. ALL SITES
ARE VFR AND SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. LOWER MVFR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 03Z
FOR CENTRAL TAF SITES AND KDRT NEAR 06-09Z. CIGS SHOULD LOWER
FURTHER THROUGH DAWN TO IFR TO POSSIBLY LIFR. A SLOW CLIMB
UPWARDS THROUGH THE MORNING AFTERNOON WITH OCCUR TOWARDS MVFR.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NNE NEAR 10 KT AND DROP TO LESS THAN 5KT
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE BECOMING MORE EASTERLY.
A STRONGER WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING A ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA TO MOST
SITES. HAVE PLACED VCSH AND VCTS ACCORDINGLY WHEN BEST WINDOW FOR
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO OCCUR. DIRECT TSRA AND SHRA INCLUSION WILL
LIKELY COME ON SUBSEQUENT UPDATES. LOCALIZED VISIBILITY DROPS COULD
OCCUR IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS IF A STRONGER STORM DIRECTLY IMPACTS A
TERMINAL. /ALLEN/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 808 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015/
UPDATE...
BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH SOME CONSIDERATION OF
THE HRRR MODEL...WE HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE
HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR. WE HAVE ALSO DECREASED HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY GIVEN ONGOING RADAR TRENDS...NORTHERLY WINDS
AND CLOUD COVER.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015/
UPDATE...
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES BETWEEN SAN ANTONIO...
KERRVILLE AND UVALDE. HAVE BOOSTED POPS THROUGH MID MORNING FOR
THIS AREA. ALSO...STRONGER WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED ALONG I-35
FROM NORTHEAST OF SAN ANTONIO TO AUSTIN. HAVE BOOSTED WINDS FOR
THIS MORNING IN THAT AREA. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
A COLD FRONT ALONG A LANGTRY TO SAN ANTONIO TO GIDDINGS LINE
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH WITH RADARS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND IT FROM SAN ANTONIO INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
HILL COUNTRY. SOME SHOWERS ALSO NOTED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
FRONT IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER WITH SOME DRYING OVER NORTHERN
AREAS AS SEEN BY DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND EVEN SOME UPPER 40S OVER
THE FAR NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY. A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS DEVELOPED
EARLIER. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING CAP WITH INCREASING CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION TAKING HOLD WEAKENED THEM. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER
SOUTHERN TEXAS LATER TODAY. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
TODAY WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND UPWARD FORCING WILL BE
MAXIMIZED. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG STORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN
RIO GRANDE PLAINS DUE TO CAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG. SOME DRIER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO OUR AREA SHIFTING BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC
LIFT DEVELOPS SATURDAY AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES AND A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS TEXAS INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL AREAS. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE TODAY AND SATURDAY.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED
ABOUT 700 MILES WEST OF POINT CONCEPTION ON THE CALIFORNIA COAST
MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. UPWARD
FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE. THERE REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY THAT AN MCS WILL FORM OFF THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO OF
MEXICO AND THEN MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS DUE TO LOW
TO MID LEVEL WIND SHEAR. ALSO...PWS AROUND 1.5 INCHES INDICATE A
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER
TROUGH TRANSITIONS INTO A WEAK SHEAR AXIS AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN RAIN LATE
MONDAY...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RESUME AND CONTINUE
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS TEXAS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS. A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE
ACROSS LATE THURSDAY WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ENDING IN ITS WAKE BY NEXT FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 63 77 67 79 67 / 20 50 50 60 70
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 62 76 66 78 66 / 20 50 50 60 70
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 63 79 66 80 67 / 20 50 50 60 70
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 60 75 65 78 65 / 20 50 40 50 70
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 67 79 68 81 65 / 40 50 40 50 60
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 59 76 65 79 66 / 20 50 50 60 70
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 64 79 67 80 66 / 20 50 50 60 70
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 63 78 66 79 67 / 20 50 50 60 70
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 65 78 68 79 69 / 20 60 50 70 70
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 64 79 68 80 68 / 20 50 50 60 70
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 65 79 68 80 68 / 20 60 50 60 70
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
808 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
.UPDATE...
BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH SOME CONSIDERATION OF
THE HRRR MODEL...WE HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE
HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR. WE HAVE ALSO DECREASED HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY GIVEN ONGOING RADAR TRENDS...NORTHERLY WINDS
AND CLOUD COVER.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015/
UPDATE...
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES BETWEEN SAN ANTONIO...
KERRVILLE AND UVALDE. HAVE BOOSTED POPS THROUGH MID MORNING FOR
THIS AREA. ALSO...STRONGER WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED ALONG I-35
FROM NORTHEAST OF SAN ANTONIO TO AUSTIN. HAVE BOOSTED WINDS FOR
THIS MORNING IN THAT AREA. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015/
DISCUSSION...12Z AVIATION BELOW.
AVIATION...THE WEAK COLD FRONT IS NOW LOCATED ROUGHLY NEAR A
DRT-UVA-PEZ LINE. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING
BETWEEN UVA-SAT...DRIFTING EAST. THESE COULD IMPACT THE SAT/SSF
TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 15Z. AS THE COLD FRONT WEAKENS FURTHER
AND MOVES SOUTH...EXPECT AFOREMENTIONED ONGOING PRECIP TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE MID TO LATE MORNING. CAN NOT RULE
OUT SOME ADDITIONAL RE-DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...BUT COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN TAFS. A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS ARE ONGOING EARLY
THIS MORNING. EXPECT VFR CEILINGS AREAWIDE BY THIS AFTERNOON. NE
WINDS GUSTY UP AROUND THE AUS TERMINAL...DIMINISHING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY BECOMING IFR IN SOME LOCATIONS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
A COLD FRONT ALONG A LANGTRY TO SAN ANTONIO TO GIDDINGS LINE
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH WITH RADARS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND IT FROM SAN ANTONIO INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
HILL COUNTRY. SOME SHOWERS ALSO NOTED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
FRONT IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER WITH SOME DRYING OVER NORTHERN
AREAS AS SEEN BY DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND EVEN SOME UPPER 40S OVER
THE FAR NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY. A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS DEVELOPED
EARLIER. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING CAP WITH INCREASING CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION TAKING HOLD WEAKENED THEM. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER
SOUTHERN TEXAS LATER TODAY. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
TODAY WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND UPWARD FORCING WILL BE
MAXIMIZED. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG STORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN
RIO GRANDE PLAINS DUE TO CAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG. SOME DRIER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO OUR AREA SHIFTING BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC
LIFT DEVELOPS SATURDAY AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES AND A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS TEXAS INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL AREAS. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE TODAY AND SATURDAY.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED
ABOUT 700 MILES WEST OF POINT CONCEPTION ON THE CALIFORNIA COAST
MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. UPWARD
FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE. THERE REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY THAT AN MCS WILL FORM OFF THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO OF
MEXICO AND THEN MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS DUE TO LOW
TO MID LEVEL WIND SHEAR. ALSO...PWS AROUND 1.5 INCHES INDICATE A
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER
TROUGH TRANSITIONS INTO A WEAK SHEAR AXIS AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN RAIN LATE
MONDAY...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RESUME AND CONTINUE
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS TEXAS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS. A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE
ACROSS LATE THURSDAY WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ENDING IN ITS WAKE BY NEXT FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 71 63 77 67 79 / 60 20 50 50 60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 69 62 76 66 78 / 60 20 50 50 60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 72 63 79 66 80 / 60 20 50 50 60
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 70 60 75 65 78 / 40 20 50 40 50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 78 67 79 68 81 / 20 40 50 40 50
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 70 59 76 65 79 / 40 20 50 50 60
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 74 64 79 67 80 / 80 20 50 50 60
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 71 63 78 66 79 / 60 20 50 50 60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 74 65 78 68 79 / 50 20 60 50 70
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 74 64 79 68 80 / 80 20 50 50 60
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 74 65 79 68 80 / 70 20 60 50 60
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
629 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NORTH OF SOUTH
TEXAS...WITH A SLOWER PROGRESSION SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING. THIS
SAID...HAVE BACKED OFF ON TIMING WITH THE FRONT AS WELL AS
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONAL HEATING AND
INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS MRNG...MORE INTO
THE AFTN. UNTIL THEN...LIFR/IFR/MVFR CIGS AS WELL AS VSBYS WILL
CONTINUE BEFORE LIFTING THROUGH THE LATE MRNG/AFTN. MOISTURE
RESIDES AROUND 2500KT FT FOR SCT/BKN CLOUDS...SO FOR THE MOST PART
WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF VFR WILL BE POSSIBLE
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. RAIN CHANCES DWINDLE LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
EASTERN SITES...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LATE TOWARD LRD.
A RETURN OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...CONVECTION WEST OF THE
BORDER CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS FARTHER EAST THIS EARLY
MORNING. THIS IS ALL IN PART OF AN UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT HELPED
FIRE OFF CONVECTION ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRE LATE YESTERDAY
EVENING...CONTINUING TO PUSH FARTHER EAST ITSELF. LIGHT RAIN IS
CURRENTLY FALLING OUT OF THE CIRRUS SHIELD FROM THIS CLUSTERS OF
STORMS. TIMING OF THE STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE BORDER REMAINS
SLOWER AS MUCH DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO GET ENTRAINED INTO THE
SYSTEMS. EVEN THE HRRR HAS SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE
STORMS...BUT CONTINUES TO BRING THEM THROUGH LATER THIS EARLY
MORNING...WITH THE TEXAS TECH WRF HANDLING IT WELL. AT THIS
TIME...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED FROM THESE STORMS...BUT
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
CHANGING FOCUS TO THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY CUTTING
THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD
TODAY. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASED PWATS OF 1.5-1.7 INCHES
AND ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM E-SE MOVING MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVES...SHOULD
LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. DIFFERENCES
REMAIN WITH THE HRRR AND TT-WRF IN RESPECT WITH RAIN CHANCES IN
THE AFTN ESPECIALLY OUT WEST. THE TT-WRF CONTINUES CHANCES
/SIMILAR TO THE GLOBAL MODELS/ WHILE HRRR ENDS CONVECTION TOWARD
THE LATE MORNING AS IT GETS A BIT MORE STABLE. THE LATTER WOULD
ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM UP WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR INCREASING CAPE
AND INSTABILITY FOR REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTN/EVNG. THE CIRRUS
SHIELD MAY BE A BIG INHIBITOR OF THE TEMPS INCREASING...BUT WITH
ANOTHER VORT LOBE ENTERING THE REGION...AND INCREASING FLOW FROM
THE APPROACHING UPPER JET...TEMPERATURES AT THE SFC MAY NOT NEED
TO WARM MUCH AS THE MIDLEVELS WOULD BE COOL ENOUGH. WITH ALL
THAT SAID...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WESTERN ZONES...WITH LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS BEING THE
BIGGER THREAT...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE.
CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE HEADING LATE
IN THE NIGHT...WITH SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. FOR TEMPERATURES...CONTINUED MILD AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 ACROSS THE EAST AND IN THE
MID 80S ACROSS THE WEST.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...PLENTIFUL MOISTURE REMAINS
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A BRIEF DRY SPELL TAKES PLACE. AREA REMAINS IN
WSW FLOW ALOFT WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND LIMITED IF ANY AFTERNOON
CAP. GOOD SURFACE FORCING/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
MORNING. ERGO...WILL GO WITH MODERATE POPS THROUGH SUNDAY ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAY...WITH ACTIVITY WANING IN THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE PICKING UP SOME TOWARD THE COASTAL AREAS.
THERE COULD BE A BRIEF QUIET PERIOD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS MODELS ALL
CONCUR ON PUSHING BEST MOISTURE TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...PRETTY POTENT SUB-TROPICAL JET IMPACTS AREA (LEFT FRONT
QUAD) ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...WITH MOISTURE RETURNING
(NEARLY 2 INCH PWATS). THUS...ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF RAIN. ALTHOUGH
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR A SOME
STRONG STORMS...WITH MAYBE EVEN A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SEVERE STORM OR
TWO SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING (SEE SWODY3 FOR MORE DETAILS).
TIMING OF JET MAY LIMIT SEVERE CONCERN IF IMPACTS ARE MAINLY AFTER
06Z ON 4/13. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SATURDAY
AS IF ENOUGH RAIN OCCURS OVER LARGE ENOUGH AREA FLOODING ISSUES MAY
ARISE.
LOOKS LIKE A DRY PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE RAIN CHANCES PICK UP
AGAIN ESPECIALLY MID WEEK WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. GENERALLY
FOLLOWED THE SUPERBLEND WITH POPS...HOWEVER FEEL POPS ON TUESDAY MAY
BE A TAD OVER-DONE AT THIS TIME AS MOISTURE MAY BE A BIT MORE
LIMITED THAN ONE WOULD WANT (PLENTY OF TIME TO ADJUST). BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN APPEAR TO BE THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONT COMES DOWN ON
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. DRIER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT
(COOLER TOO)...AND FOR NOW DID NOT MENTION RAIN IN FOR FRIDAY (DAY
8) POPS. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES AFTER DAY
3 (USED SUPERBLEND FOR THESE). FOR TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...STAYED WITH THE COOLER MOS NUMBERS BUT DID BLEND A BIT TOO
BUT RAIN-COOLED AIR AND CLOUDS WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING TOO MUCH THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 80 70 81 72 82 / 50 30 60 30 50
VICTORIA 78 68 79 69 81 / 60 30 70 40 70
LAREDO 86 68 83 71 87 / 50 50 50 50 30
ALICE 81 69 82 71 84 / 50 40 70 30 50
ROCKPORT 80 71 80 71 80 / 50 20 60 30 50
COTULLA 79 67 81 68 84 / 50 40 70 50 50
KINGSVILLE 81 70 83 72 85 / 50 30 60 30 50
NAVY CORPUS 80 71 81 72 81 / 40 20 60 30 50
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
CB/85...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
358 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...CONVECTION WEST OF THE
BORDER CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS FARTHER EAST THIS EARLY
MORNING. THIS IS ALL IN PART OF AN UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT HELPED
FIRE OFF CONVECTION ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRE LATE YESTERDAY
EVENING...CONTINUING TO PUSH FARTHER EAST ITSELF. LIGHT RAIN IS
CURRENTLY FALLING OUT OF THE CIRRUS SHIELD FROM THIS CLUSTERS OF
STORMS. TIMING OF THE STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE BORDER REMAINS
SLOWER AS MUCH DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO GET ENTRAINED INTO THE
SYSTEMS. EVEN THE HRRR HAS SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE
STORMS...BUT CONTINUES TO BRING THEM THROUGH LATER THIS EARLY
MORNING...WITH THE TEXAS TECH WRF HANDLING IT WELL. AT THIS
TIME...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED FROM THESE STORMS...BUT
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
CHANGING FOCUS TO THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY CUTTING
THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD
TODAY. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASED PWATS OF 1.5-1.7 INCHES
AND ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM E-SE MOVING MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVES...SHOULD
LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. DIFFERENCES
REMAIN WITH THE HRRR AND TT-WRF IN RESPECT WITH RAIN CHANCES IN
THE AFTN ESPECIALLY OUT WEST. THE TT-WRF CONTINUES CHANCES
/SIMILAR TO THE GLOBAL MODELS/ WHILE HRRR ENDS CONVECTION TOWARD
THE LATE MORNING AS IT GETS A BIT MORE STABLE. THE LATTER WOULD
ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM UP WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR INCREASING CAPE
AND INSTABILITY FOR REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTN/EVNG. THE CIRRUS
SHIELD MAY BE A BIG INHIBITOR OF THE TEMPS INCREASING...BUT WITH
ANOTHER VORT LOBE ENTERING THE REGION...AND INCREASING FLOW FROM
THE APPROACHING UPPER JET...TEMPERATURES AT THE SFC MAY NOT NEED
TO WARM MUCH AS THE MIDLEVELS WOULD BE COOL ENOUGH. WITH ALL
THAT SAID...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WESTERN ZONES...WITH LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS BEING THE
BIGGER THREAT...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE.
CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE HEADING LATE
IN THE NIGHT...WITH SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. FOR TEMPERATURES...CONTINUED MILD AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 ACROSS THE EAST AND IN THE
MID 80S ACROSS THE WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...PLENTIFUL MOISTURE REMAINS
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A BRIEF DRY SPELL TAKES PLACE. AREA REMAINS IN
WSW FLOW ALOFT WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND LIMITED IF ANY AFTERNOON
CAP. GOOD SURFACE FORCING/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
MORNING. ERGO...WILL GO WITH MODERATE POPS THROUGH SUNDAY ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAY...WITH ACTIVITY WANING IN THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE PICKING UP SOME TOWARD THE COASTAL AREAS.
THERE COULD BE A BRIEF QUIET PERIOD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS MODELS ALL
CONCUR ON PUSHING BEST MOISTURE TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...PRETTY POTENT SUB-TROPICAL JET IMPACTS AREA (LEFT FRONT
QUAD) ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...WITH MOISTURE RETURNING
(NEARLY 2 INCH PWATS). THUS...ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF RAIN. ALTHOUGH
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR A SOME
STRONG STORMS...WITH MAYBE EVEN A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SEVERE STORM OR
TWO SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING (SEE SWODY3 FOR MORE DETAILS).
TIMING OF JET MAY LIMIT SEVERE CONCERN IF IMPACTS ARE MAINLY AFTER
06Z ON 4/13. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SATURDAY
AS IF ENOUGH RAIN OCCURS OVER LARGE ENOUGH AREA FLOODING ISSUES MAY
ARISE.
LOOKS LIKE A DRY PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE RAIN CHANCES PICK UP
AGAIN ESPECIALLY MID WEEK WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. GENERALLY
FOLLOWED THE SUPERBLEND WITH POPS...HOWEVER FEEL POPS ON TUESDAY MAY
BE A TAD OVER-DONE AT THIS TIME AS MOISTURE MAY BE A BIT MORE
LIMITED THAN ONE WOULD WANT (PLENTY OF TIME TO ADJUST). BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN APPEAR TO BE THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONT COMES DOWN ON
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. DRIER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT
(COOLER TOO)...AND FOR NOW DID NOT MENTION RAIN IN FOR FRIDAY (DAY
8) POPS. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES AFTER DAY
3 (USED SUPERBLEND FOR THESE). FOR TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...STAYED WITH THE COOLER MOS NUMBERS BUT DID BLEND A BIT TOO
BUT RAIN-COOLED AIR AND CLOUDS WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING TOO MUCH THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 80 70 81 72 82 / 50 30 60 30 50
VICTORIA 78 68 79 69 81 / 60 30 70 40 70
LAREDO 86 68 83 71 87 / 50 50 50 50 30
ALICE 81 69 82 71 84 / 50 40 70 30 50
ROCKPORT 80 71 80 71 80 / 50 20 60 30 50
COTULLA 79 67 81 68 84 / 50 40 70 50 50
KINGSVILLE 81 70 83 72 85 / 50 30 60 30 50
NAVY CORPUS 80 71 81 72 81 / 40 20 60 30 50
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
CB/85...SHORT TERM
GW/86...LONG TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1147 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
40
&&
.AVIATION...
AT 04Z THE COLD FRONT WAS NEAR A LINE FROM KTRL TO KTPL. THE TEXAS
TECH WRF HAS DONE A DECENT JOB IN DEPICTING THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT
THIS EVENING AND THE RAINFALL COVERAGE. THE MODEL PUSHES THE FRONT
INTO KCLL AND KUTS BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z...AND THEN THROUGH KCXO
BETWEEN 08Z AND 10Z...THE METRO HOUSTON AIRPORTS BETWEEN 10Z AND
12Z...AND THEN THROUGH KGLS AT THE COAST BETWEEN 13Z AND 16Z.
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AT 0430Z. THE MODEL FORECASTS THIS LINE TO MOVE
THROUGH TO THE COAST...ALTHOUGH AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO METRO
HOUSTON THE RAINFALL COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO MOVE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON FRIDAY. AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT KCXO
AND KIAH TO THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES MAY
LINGER OVER THE TERMINALS FROM KIAH TO THE COAST THROUGH ABOUT
03Z.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATE FOR RAIN CHANCES.
DISCUSSION...
WILL RAISE POPS OVERNIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. LATEST HRRR IS
MATCHING UP WELL WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ON THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT COUPLED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO
THE STATE SHOULD YIELD HIGHER POPS THROUGH 15Z FRI. NEW ZONES OUT
BY 1015 PM. 43
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 858 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015/
UPDATE...
SEE EVENING UPDATE.
DISCUSSION...
AT 8 PM...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SPRINGFIELD MO TO PARIS TO
SAN ANGELO. A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM TEXARKANA TO WACO
TO A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WEST OF LAREDO. SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPED
ALONG THE PRE FRONTAL TROUGH AND HAVE THUS FAR REMAINED JUST NORTH
AND WEST OF THE HGX CWA. MODELS HAVE BEEN WAY TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH
RAINFALL THIS EVENING AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE 18Z TEXAS TECH
WRF SINCE IT INITIALIZED BEST. 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES HAVE
GONE UP TO 1.50 INCHES AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS LESS CAPPED THAN LAST
EVENING. SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW SOME DRY AIR BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB.
THE COLD FRONT IS SURGING SOUTH AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS WHILE THE EASTERN PART OF THE FRONT IS MOVING MORE
SLUGGISHLY. THE DILEMMA FOR THE NIGHT IS FAR SOUTH THE FRONT MOVES
AND ITS EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES. THE TEXAS TECH
WRF KEEPS THINGS RELATIVELY DRY OVERNIGHT AS THE CONVECTION PUSHES
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE STATE. STILL FEEL THERE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO GENERATE A
FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND WILL LEAVE POPS AS THEY
ARE. A S/WV ON WATER VAPOR WILL APPROACH SE TX FRIDAY MORNING AND
FEEL SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY MID MORNING. MIN TEMPS
ARE A TOUGH CALL AND WILL BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON THE FRONTAL
POSITION. SINCE THE EASTERN PART OF THE FRONT IS MOVING
SLOWER...FEEL THE FRONT WILL HAVE TROUBLE CLEARING THE CWA.
CURRENT MIN TEMPS LOOK GOOD BASED ON WHERE THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BE AT 12Z FRIDAY. TWEAKED SKY GRIDS TO MATCH CURRENT OBS
OTHERWISE WILL LEAVE CURRENT FCST AS IS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
40
AVIATION...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SINK INTO SE TX FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT.
THE MODELS DIFFERED ON THE FRONTAL TIMING AND ON COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DECIDED TO GO WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE
RAP...NAM...AND GFS. WITH THIS IN MIND...THINK THAT MVFR IS FAIRLY
CERTAIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE INLAND COUNTIES SOMETIME BETWEEN 03Z
AND 09Z. MVFR CONDITIONS HAD ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER KLBX AND KGLS
AT 23Z. THINK THAT WITH THE END OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE AS THE FRONT REACHES INTO THE
KCLL AND KUTS AREAS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CHANCES OF RAIN
WILL INCREASE OVER THE METRO HOUSTON SITES AND SOUTHWARD AFTER MID
MORNING AND THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 62 73 64 77 66 / 60 30 20 60 60
HOUSTON (IAH) 69 77 67 79 68 / 40 60 30 60 60
GALVESTON (GLS) 72 78 69 76 70 / 30 60 30 60 50
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
241 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR WEDGE OF STABLE AIR WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL THEN SWEEP
THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAY TODAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT FRIDAY...
MID-AFTERNOON UPDATE COMING OUT SOON TO REFLECT TWO MAIN ITEMS.
FIRST...HAVE RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ACROSS
PRIMARILY SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING SECTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE AT OR
WITHIN A DEGREE OF EARLIER FORECAST HIGHS...AND ADDITIONAL WARMING
IS STILL PROMISING. ALSO...HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THE WEST TO
LIKELY IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF WHERE THE LATEST ACTIVITY IS
FIRING BETWEEN BLUEFIELD AND LEWISBURG. THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...ESPECIALLY THE FOCUS FOR THE STRONGEST
STORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
AS OF 1250 PM EDT FRIDAY...
THE WEDGE HAS MET ITS MATCH AND IS NO MORE ACROSS THE EAST. THE
LAST REGION WAS THE LYNCHBURG AREA...AND WITHIN THE PAST HOUR HAS
LOST ITS FOG...ITS VERY LOW CLOUD COVER...JUMPED FIVE DEGREES...AND
THE WIND HAS INCREASED FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE REGION OF SHOWERS
THAT WAS MARCHING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING HAS DECREASED IN
COVERAGE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE NORTHERN SECTION RAN INTO THE
DISSIPATING WEDGE. THE SOUTHERN SECTION NEVER REALLY GOT ITS ACT
TOGETHER. THE MAIN FRONT IT STILL WEST OF THE AREA...WHERE
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A TRAILING LINE OF SHOWERS...AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS DENOTE A DISTINCT WIND SHIFT NORTHWEST. AS THIS
FEATURE DRAWS CLOSER...THE AREA OF SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND
NEIGHBORING PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA IS NOW OUR MAIN
FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK STILL PAINTS OF SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER FOR THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE AREA GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN PULLED EASTWARD TO COINCIDE WITH ROUGHLY
THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HAVE MADE CHANGES TO THE POPS AND
WEATHER TO REFLECT THE CURRENT DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT WITH AN EXPECTATION OF AN INCREASE IN THE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON...AND TO ALSO REFLECT THE GAP OF COVERAGE CURRENTLY
CENTRAL AND WEST. CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN IN THE WEST AND
CENTRAL WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT AT THIS TIME
ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED.
AS OF 955 AM EDT FRIDAY...
THE WEDGE IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA IS PUTTING UP A GOOD
FIGHT...BUT IT WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO STRONG MIXING FROM A
LOFT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WHILE THE WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG HAS ENDED...EXPECT PATCHY FOG OR EVEN PATCHY DENSE FOG
TO SURVIVE FOR A LITTLE BIT LONGER ACROSS MAINLY PARTS OF THE
JAMES RIVER BASIN. IN THE WEST...THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA OF
SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS
REACHED ROUGHLY A BEECH MOUNTAIN NORTH CAROLINA...TO BLAND
VIRGINIA...ANJEAN WEST VIRGINIA LINE. WHILE LITTLE TO NO THUNDER
IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS REGION OF SHOWERS...WE ARE NOT
GOING TO RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STORMS AS THE
PRECIPITATION PROGRESSES INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY MIDDAY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ACTIVITY
REACHES THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND PEAK
HEATING OF THE DAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER OFFER A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM LYNCHBURG TO
REIDSVILLE AND POINTS EAST THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY CONCERN WITH ANY STORM THAT REACHED
SEVERE LEVELS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA IS WITHIN A
MARGINAL POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WITH LESS CHANCE OF
SEVERE WEATHER.
AS OF 653 AM EDT FRIDAY...
MINOR UPDATE TO SLOW DOWN ARRIVAL OF LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR WEST
PER CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...JUST BY AN HOUR OR TWO. ALSO SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS AND LOWER DEW PTS EARLY THIS MORNING THAN WHAT WE
PREVIOUSLY HAD IN THE NORTHEAST...49 AT LYNCHBURG LAST HOUR...SO
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THERE. LINE OF CONVECTION STILL ABOUT 2 HRS
AWAY FROM THE WESTERN FRINGES OF CWA...AND BEGINNING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF WEAKENING IN TERMS OF REFLECTIVITY AS WELL AS TOTAL
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. STILL MAY EVENTUALLY NEED SOME SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS FOR GUSTY WINDS IF IT MAINTAINS SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS AS IT NEARS.
PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...
WEDGE FRONT REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING FROM
NORTH-CENTRAL NC THROUGH NEW RIVER VALLEY AND THEN UP THE
VIRGINIA-WEST VIRGINIA BORDER. LOWEST VISIBILITIES ARE ALONG
SOUTHERN BORDER IN NORTHERN NC AND SOUTHSIDE VA...AND IN
COORDINATION WITH WFO RAH ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THOSE
AREAS THROUGH 9 AM. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN LIFTING NORTH
QUICKLY AROUND SUNRISE OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER...AND SO MAY END UP
CANCELING SLIGHTLY EARLY.
OTHERWISE WE ARE WATCHING LINES OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...AND THERE ARE A FEW AREAS OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NOW
OUT AHEAD OF THESE...FROM UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND A FEW IN ERN
KENTUCKY. HRRR AND HIRES WRF ARW SEEM TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON THIS
AND TIME OF ARRIVAL IN WESTERN PART OF CWA...MAINLY BETWEEN 14Z
AND 15Z...SO DELAYED LIKELY POPS UNTIL THEN...WITH SOME LOW CHC
POPS STARTING AROUND 11Z IN CASE ANYTHING CONTINUES TO POP OUT
AHEAD. ALREADY GETTING SOME VERY LOW INSTABILITY VALUES IN FAR
WEST.
MOST HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE BREAKS THE LINE UP SOMEWHAT AS IT
MOVES INTO WESTERN SLOPES...ALTHOUGH SOME SCATTERED CELLS DO MAKE
IT THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...THEN THE LINE TRIES TO REFORM
EAST OF BLUE RIDGE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THINK HRRR MAY BE A
LITTLE TOO FAST WITH THE TIMING SHOWING EVERYTHING EAST OF CWA BY
22Z...BUT IT MAY NOT BE TOO FAR OFF. STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST
HOW STRONG THIS LINE WILL GET BEFORE GETTING EAST OF THE
AREA...WITH INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT LIMITED YET SHEAR QUITE STRONG.
SHOULD BE GOOD FORCING WITH FRONT HOWEVER...SO SLIGHT RISK FROM
MTV TO LYH AND POINTS EAST LOOKS REASONABLE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS
BEING PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN QLCS TYPE OF MODE EXPECTED. HAIL SHOULD
BE BE MINIMAL GIVEN LIMITED LOW TO MODEST INSTABILITY. KEPT POPS
LOW END OF CATEGORICAL ALL THE WAY THROUGH CWA...AS MOST LOCATIONS
REALLY SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A BRIEF SHOWER...BUT IT`S POSSIBLE LINE
COULD BREAK UP ENOUGH TO WHERE WE WILL NEED TO LOWER POPS IN
CENTRAL PART OF CWA BEFORE LINE REFORMS. ITS ALSO QUITE POSSIBLE
THAT THE LINE DOES NOT GET ITS ACT TOGETHER AGAIN UNTIL IT MAKES
IT EAST OF THE CWA...AND THUS LIMITED SEVERE WX
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IF THIS ENDS UP PUSHING THROUGH A LITTLE
FASTER.
CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE QUICKLY BY LATE AFT IN WEST AND EARLY
EVENING IN EAST...WITH A FEW LINGERING LOW CLOUDS IN WESTERN
SLOPES...BUT LATER ON OVERNIGHT MORE COMPLETE CLEARING EXPECTED
WITH NW WINDS 10-15 MPH.
WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON TEMPS TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND TRIED TO
SHOW SOME COOLING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND LINE OF CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON...PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT FRIDAY...
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST OF OUR REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
A LARGE 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY
AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A
MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN BRISK NW WINDS DURING THE DAY
AND WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IT WILL FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE
SPRING THAN RECENT DAYS...AT LEAST IN THOSE AREAS THAT ESCAPED THE
WEDGE. HIGHS WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL CLIMO NORMS FROM NEAR 60
FAR NW TO NEAR 70 FAR SE. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST ON
SATURDAY AND SHOULD BE PARKED ALMOST OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
DECENT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS THAT WILL CERTAINLY YIELD SOME LOWS IN
THE 30S IN THE COOLER VALLEYS. WIDELY SCATTERED FROST MAY BE A
POSSIBILITY. HIGH SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH
ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE DAY AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND TEMPS REACH LEVELS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. MONDAY LOOKS
TO BE A TRANSITION DAY AS A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
EMERGE FROM THE GULF COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHEAST FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME EVIDENT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY AND POPS RISING TO CHANCE BY MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...
OVERALL PATTERN WILL AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY MEAN 5H TROFFINESS
ACROSS THE EASTERN ROCKIES AS THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SW OPENS UP AND
RATHER FLAT FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EAST BENEATH PASSING WAVES WELL TO
THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A VERY MOIST OVERRUNNING TYPE SW FLOW BY
MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT
EMERGES INTO THE PLAINS BY DAY7. APPEARS DRIEST PERIODS WILL BE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL DIPPING
INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TO THE SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER
WEAK IMPULSES EJECTING SE ALONG THE BOUNDARY LIKELY TO PRODUCE SOME
SHOWER COVERAGE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT BEFORE THE LARGER
SWATH OF DEEPER MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN NE LATER TUESDAY WHEN WILL
HAVE HIGHER CHANCE POPS. WEAK WEDGE LOOKS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THEN
ERODE DURING THURSDAY AS THE RESIDUAL BACKDOOR FRONT STARTS TO LIFT
BACK NE AS WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE STRONGER COLD FRONT TO THE WEST.
THIS LIKELY THE PERIOD OF BETTER RAIN CHANCES ESPCLY BY THURSDAY WITH
DEEPER PWATS ARRIVING...AND PERHAPS MORE INSTABILITY WITH THE WARM
FRONT AROUND SO MAINLY HIGH CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
AFTER A COOL START WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S EARLY MONDAY...EXPECT
MAINLY UNIFORM TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK PENDING DEGREE OF INSOLATION EACH DAY AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT FRIDAY...
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH MONDAY.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM EASTERN
OHIO...SOUTHWEST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE
ALONG AND JUST IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...EASTWARD TO NEAR A
KBLF-KLWB LINE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS
ACCOMPANIED THIS ACTIVITY. EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...THE COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE BROKE THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO
GOOD MIXING OF S-SW WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. AREAS NEAR
KDAN MIXED FIRST...WITH AREAS NEAR KLYH...JUST NOW STARTING TO
TREND TOWARD UNSTABLE. WE ARE EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FIRE
THIS AFTERNOON IN AREAS NEAR KDAN THANKS TO SURFACE BASED CAPE
AROUND 1600 J/KG AND LI VALUES AROUND -6. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE EVENING. MOST AREAS WILL
EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT THOSE SPOTS UNDER THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS OR STORMS WHERE BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
THANKS TO THE APPROACH OF HIGH PRESSURE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS FROM THE LATE EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A
BIT OF A LULL TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY. WINDS WILL AGAIN BECOME
GUSTY FROM THE LATE MORNING AND ONWARD.
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
ON MONDAY...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MOST OF THESE WILL BE HIGH
BASED THROUGH THE DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF WEATHER PARAMETERS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE ON WEDNESDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SHOWERS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. ALSO...THE ANTICIPATE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF SUB-VFR CIGS AND VSBYS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE REMAINS AN AMOUNT OF QUESTION AS TO
HOW MUCH MOISTURE GETS ADVECTED UPSLOPE INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA AROUND THE EDGE OF THE
HIGH...YIELDING LOWER CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NF/SK
NEAR TERM...DS/SK
SHORT TERM...PC
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
158 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR WEDGE OF STABLE AIR WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL THEN SWEEP
THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAY TODAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1250 PM EDT FRIDAY...
THE WEDGE HAS MET ITS MATCH AND IS NO MORE ACROSS THE EAST. THE
LAST REGION WAS THE LYNCHBURG AREA...AND WITHIN THE PAST HOUR HAS
LOST ITS FOG...ITS VERY LOW CLOUD COVER...JUMPED FIVE DEGREES...AND
THE WIND HAS INCREASED FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE REGION OF SHOWERS
THAT WAS MARCHING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING HAS DECREASED IN
COVERAGE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE NORTHERN SECTION RAN INTO THE
DISSIPATING WEDGE. THE SOUTHERN SECTION NEVER REALLY GOT ITS ACT
TOGETHER. THE MAIN FRONT IT STILL WEST OF THE AREA...WHERE
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A TRAILING LINE OF SHOWERS...AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS DENOTE A DISTINCT WIND SHIFT NORTHWEST. AS THIS
FEATURE DRAWS CLOSER...THE AREA OF SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND
NEIGHBORING PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA IS NOW OUR MAIN
FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK STILL PAINTS OF SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER FOR THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE AREA GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN PULLED EASTWARD TO COINCIDE WITH ROUGHLY
THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HAVE MADE CHANGES TO THE POPS AND
WEATHER TO REFLECT THE CURRENT DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT WITH AN EXPECTATION OF AN INCREASE IN THE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON...AND TO ALSO REFLECT THE GAP OF COVERAGE CURRENTLY
CENTRAL AND WEST. CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN IN THE WEST AND
CENTRAL WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT AT THIS TIME
ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED.
AS OF 955 AM EDT FRIDAY...
THE WEDGE IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA IS PUTTING UP A GOOD
FIGHT...BUT IT WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO STRONG MIXING FROM A
LOFT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WHILE THE WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG HAS ENDED...EXPECT PATCHY FOG OR EVEN PATCHY DENSE FOG
TO SURVIVE FOR A LITTLE BIT LONGER ACROSS MAINLY PARTS OF THE
JAMES RIVER BASIN. IN THE WEST...THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA OF
SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS
REACHED ROUGHLY A BEECH MOUNTAIN NORTH CAROLINA...TO BLAND
VIRGINIA...ANJEAN WEST VIRGINIA LINE. WHILE LITTLE TO NO THUNDER
IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS REGION OF SHOWERS...WE ARE NOT
GOING TO RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STORMS AS THE
PRECIPITATION PROGRESSES INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY MIDDAY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ACTIVITY
REACHES THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND PEAK
HEATING OF THE DAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER OFFER A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM LYNCHBURG TO
REIDSVILLE AND POINTS EAST THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY CONCERN WITH ANY STORM THAT REACHED
SEVERE LEVELS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA IS WITHIN A
MARGINAL POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WITH LESS CHANCE OF
SEVERE WEATHER.
AS OF 653 AM EDT FRIDAY...
MINOR UPDATE TO SLOW DOWN ARRIVAL OF LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR WEST
PER CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...JUST BY AN HOUR OR TWO. ALSO SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS AND LOWER DEW PTS EARLY THIS MORNING THAN WHAT WE
PREVIOUSLY HAD IN THE NORTHEAST...49 AT LYNCHBURG LAST HOUR...SO
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THERE. LINE OF CONVECTION STILL ABOUT 2 HRS
AWAY FROM THE WESTERN FRINGES OF CWA...AND BEGINNING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF WEAKENING IN TERMS OF REFLECTIVITY AS WELL AS TOTAL
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. STILL MAY EVENTUALLY NEED SOME SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS FOR GUSTY WINDS IF IT MAINTAINS SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS AS IT NEARS.
PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...
WEDGE FRONT REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING FROM
NORTH-CENTRAL NC THROUGH NEW RIVER VALLEY AND THEN UP THE
VIRGINIA-WEST VIRGINIA BORDER. LOWEST VISIBILITIES ARE ALONG
SOUTHERN BORDER IN NORTHERN NC AND SOUTHSIDE VA...AND IN
COORDINATION WITH WFO RAH ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THOSE
AREAS THROUGH 9 AM. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN LIFTING NORTH
QUICKLY AROUND SUNRISE OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER...AND SO MAY END UP
CANCELING SLIGHTLY EARLY.
OTHERWISE WE ARE WATCHING LINES OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...AND THERE ARE A FEW AREAS OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NOW
OUT AHEAD OF THESE...FROM UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND A FEW IN ERN
KENTUCKY. HRRR AND HIRES WRF ARW SEEM TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON THIS
AND TIME OF ARRIVAL IN WESTERN PART OF CWA...MAINLY BETWEEN 14Z
AND 15Z...SO DELAYED LIKELY POPS UNTIL THEN...WITH SOME LOW CHC
POPS STARTING AROUND 11Z IN CASE ANYTHING CONTINUES TO POP OUT
AHEAD. ALREADY GETTING SOME VERY LOW INSTABILITY VALUES IN FAR
WEST.
MOST HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE BREAKS THE LINE UP SOMEWHAT AS IT
MOVES INTO WESTERN SLOPES...ALTHOUGH SOME SCATTERED CELLS DO MAKE
IT THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...THEN THE LINE TRIES TO REFORM
EAST OF BLUE RIDGE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THINK HRRR MAY BE A
LITTLE TOO FAST WITH THE TIMING SHOWING EVERYTHING EAST OF CWA BY
22Z...BUT IT MAY NOT BE TOO FAR OFF. STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST
HOW STRONG THIS LINE WILL GET BEFORE GETTING EAST OF THE
AREA...WITH INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT LIMITED YET SHEAR QUITE STRONG.
SHOULD BE GOOD FORCING WITH FRONT HOWEVER...SO SLIGHT RISK FROM
MTV TO LYH AND POINTS EAST LOOKS REASONABLE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS
BEING PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN QLCS TYPE OF MODE EXPECTED. HAIL SHOULD
BE BE MINIMAL GIVEN LIMITED LOW TO MODEST INSTABILITY. KEPT POPS
LOW END OF CATEGORICAL ALL THE WAY THROUGH CWA...AS MOST LOCATIONS
REALLY SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A BRIEF SHOWER...BUT IT`S POSSIBLE LINE
COULD BREAK UP ENOUGH TO WHERE WE WILL NEED TO LOWER POPS IN
CENTRAL PART OF CWA BEFORE LINE REFORMS. ITS ALSO QUITE POSSIBLE
THAT THE LINE DOES NOT GET ITS ACT TOGETHER AGAIN UNTIL IT MAKES
IT EAST OF THE CWA...AND THUS LIMITED SEVERE WX
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IF THIS ENDS UP PUSHING THROUGH A LITTLE
FASTER.
CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE QUICKLY BY LATE AFT IN WEST AND EARLY
EVENING IN EAST...WITH A FEW LINGERING LOW CLOUDS IN WESTERN
SLOPES...BUT LATER ON OVERNIGHT MORE COMPLETE CLEARING EXPECTED
WITH NW WINDS 10-15 MPH.
WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON TEMPS TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND TRIED TO
SHOW SOME COOLING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND LINE OF CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON...PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT FRIDAY...
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST OF OUR REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
A LARGE 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY
AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A
MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN BRISK NW WINDS DURING THE DAY
AND WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IT WILL FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE
SPRING THAN RECENT DAYS...AT LEAST IN THOSE AREAS THAT ESCAPED THE
WEDGE. HIGHS WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL CLIMO NORMS FROM NEAR 60
FAR NW TO NEAR 70 FAR SE. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST ON
SATURDAY AND SHOULD BE PARKED ALMOST OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
DECENT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS THAT WILL CERTAINLY YIELD SOME LOWS IN
THE 30S IN THE COOLER VALLEYS. WIDELY SCATTERED FROST MAY BE A
POSSIBILITY. HIGH SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH
ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE DAY AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND TEMPS REACH LEVELS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. MONDAY LOOKS
TO BE A TRANSITION DAY AS A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
EMERGE FROM THE GULF COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHEAST FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME EVIDENT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY AND POPS RISING TO CHANCE BY MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...
OVERALL PATTERN WILL AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY MEAN 5H TROFFINESS
ACROSS THE EASTERN ROCKIES AS THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SW OPENS UP AND
RATHER FLAT FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EAST BENEATH PASSING WAVES WELL TO
THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A VERY MOIST OVERRUNNING TYPE SW FLOW BY
MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT
EMERGES INTO THE PLAINS BY DAY7. APPEARS DRIEST PERIODS WILL BE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL DIPPING
INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TO THE SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER
WEAK IMPULSES EJECTING SE ALONG THE BOUNDARY LIKELY TO PRODUCE SOME
SHOWER COVERAGE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT BEFORE THE LARGER
SWATH OF DEEPER MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN NE LATER TUESDAY WHEN WILL
HAVE HIGHER CHANCE POPS. WEAK WEDGE LOOKS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THEN
ERODE DURING THURSDAY AS THE RESIDUAL BACKDOOR FRONT STARTS TO LIFT
BACK NE AS WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE STRONGER COLD FRONT TO THE WEST.
THIS LIKELY THE PERIOD OF BETTER RAIN CHANCES ESPCLY BY THURSDAY WITH
DEEPER PWATS ARRIVING...AND PERHAPS MORE INSTABILITY WITH THE WARM
FRONT AROUND SO MAINLY HIGH CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
AFTER A COOL START WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S EARLY MONDAY...EXPECT
MAINLY UNIFORM TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK PENDING DEGREE OF INSOLATION EACH DAY AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT FRIDAY...
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH MONDAY.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM EASTERN
OHIO...SOUTHWEST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE
ALONG AND JUST IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...EASTWARD TO NEAR A
KBLF-KLWB LINE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS
ACCOMPANIED THIS ACTIVITY. EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...THE COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE BROKE THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO
GOOD MIXING OF S-SW WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. AREAS NEAR
KDAN MIXED FIRST...WITH AREAS NEAR KLYH...JUST NOW STARTING TO
TREND TOWARD UNSTABLE. WE ARE EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FIRE
THIS AFTERNOON IN AREAS NEAR KDAN THANKS TO SURFACE BASED CAPE
AROUND 1600 J/KG AND LI VALUES AROUND -6. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE EVENING. MOST AREAS WILL
EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT THOSE SPOTS UNDER THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS OR STORMS WHERE BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
THANKS TO THE APPROACH OF HIGH PRESSURE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS FROM THE LATE EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A
BIT OF A LULL TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY. WINDS WILL AGAIN BECOME
GUSTY FROM THE LATE MORNING AND ONWARD.
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
ON MONDAY...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MOST OF THESE WILL BE HIGH
BASED THROUGH THE DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF WEATHER PARAMETERS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE ON WEDNESDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SHOWERS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. ALSO...THE ANTICIPATE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF SUB-VFR CIGS AND VSBYS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE REMAINS AN AMOUNT OF QUESTION AS TO
HOW MUCH MOISTURE GETS ADVECTED UPSLOPE INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA AROUND THE EDGE OF THE
HIGH...YIELDING LOWER CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NF/SK
NEAR TERM...DS/SK
SHORT TERM...PC
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
100 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR WEDGE OF STABLE AIR WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL THEN SWEEP
THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAY TODAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1250 PM EDT FRIDAY...
THE WEDGE HAS MET ITS MATCH AND IS NO MORE ACROSS THE EAST. THE
LAST REGION WAS THE LYNCHBURG AREA...AND WITHIN THE PAST HOUR HAS
LOST ITS FOG...ITS VERY LOW CLOUD COVER...JUMPED FIVE DEGREES...AND
THE WIND HAS INCREASED FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE REGION OF SHOWERS
THAT WAS MARCHING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING HAS DECREASED IN
COVERAGE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE NORTHERN SECTION RAN INTO THE
DISSIPATING WEDGE. THE SOUTHERN SECTION NEVER REALLY GOT ITS ACT
TOGETHER. THE MAIN FRONT IT STILL WEST OF THE AREA...WHERE
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A TRAILING LINE OF SHOWERS...AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS DENOTE A DISTINCT WIND SHIFT NORTHWEST. AS THIS
FEATURE DRAWS CLOSER...THE AREA OF SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND
NEIGHBORING PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA IS NOW OUR MAIN
FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK STILL PAINTS OF SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER FOR THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE AREA GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN PULLED EASTWARD TO COINCIDE WITH ROUGHLY
THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HAVE MADE CHANGES TO THE POPS AND
WEATHER TO REFLECT THE CURRENT DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT WITH AN EXPECTATION OF AN INCREASE IN THE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON...AND TO ALSO REFLECT THE GAP OF COVERAGE CURRENTLY
CENTRAL AND WEST. CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN IN THE WEST AND
CENTRAL WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT AT THIS TIME
ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED.
AS OF 955 AM EDT FRIDAY...
THE WEDGE IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA IS PUTTING UP A GOOD
FIGHT...BUT IT WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO STRONG MIXING FROM A
LOFT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WHILE THE WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG HAS ENDED...EXPECT PATCHY FOG OR EVEN PATCHY DENSE FOG
TO SURVIVE FOR A LITTLE BIT LONGER ACROSS MAINLY PARTS OF THE
JAMES RIVER BASIN. IN THE WEST...THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA OF
SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS
REACHED ROUGHLY A BEECH MOUNTAIN NORTH CAROLINA...TO BLAND
VIRGINIA...ANJEAN WEST VIRGINIA LINE. WHILE LITTLE TO NO THUNDER
IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS REGION OF SHOWERS...WE ARE NOT
GOING TO RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STORMS AS THE
PRECIPITATION PROGRESSES INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY MIDDAY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ACTIVITY
REACHES THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND PEAK
HEATING OF THE DAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER OFFER A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM LYNCHBURG TO
REIDSVILLE AND POINTS EAST THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY CONCERN WITH ANY STORM THAT REACHED
SEVERE LEVELS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA IS WITHIN A
MARGINAL POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WITH LESS CHANCE OF
SEVERE WEATHER.
AS OF 653 AM EDT FRIDAY...
MINOR UPDATE TO SLOW DOWN ARRIVAL OF LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR WEST
PER CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...JUST BY AN HOUR OR TWO. ALSO SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS AND LOWER DEW PTS EARLY THIS MORNING THAN WHAT WE
PREVIOUSLY HAD IN THE NORTHEAST...49 AT LYNCHBURG LAST HOUR...SO
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THERE. LINE OF CONVECTION STILL ABOUT 2 HRS
AWAY FROM THE WESTERN FRINGES OF CWA...AND BEGINNING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF WEAKENING IN TERMS OF REFLECTIVITY AS WELL AS TOTAL
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. STILL MAY EVENTUALLY NEED SOME SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS FOR GUSTY WINDS IF IT MAINTAINS SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS AS IT NEARS.
PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...
WEDGE FRONT REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING FROM
NORTH-CENTRAL NC THROUGH NEW RIVER VALLEY AND THEN UP THE
VIRGINIA-WEST VIRGINIA BORDER. LOWEST VISIBILITIES ARE ALONG
SOUTHERN BORDER IN NORTHERN NC AND SOUTHSIDE VA...AND IN
COORDINATION WITH WFO RAH ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THOSE
AREAS THROUGH 9 AM. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN LIFTING NORTH
QUICKLY AROUND SUNRISE OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER...AND SO MAY END UP
CANCELING SLIGHTLY EARLY.
OTHERWISE WE ARE WATCHING LINES OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...AND THERE ARE A FEW AREAS OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NOW
OUT AHEAD OF THESE...FROM UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND A FEW IN ERN
KENTUCKY. HRRR AND HIRES WRF ARW SEEM TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON THIS
AND TIME OF ARRIVAL IN WESTERN PART OF CWA...MAINLY BETWEEN 14Z
AND 15Z...SO DELAYED LIKELY POPS UNTIL THEN...WITH SOME LOW CHC
POPS STARTING AROUND 11Z IN CASE ANYTHING CONTINUES TO POP OUT
AHEAD. ALREADY GETTING SOME VERY LOW INSTABILITY VALUES IN FAR
WEST.
MOST HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE BREAKS THE LINE UP SOMEWHAT AS IT
MOVES INTO WESTERN SLOPES...ALTHOUGH SOME SCATTERED CELLS DO MAKE
IT THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...THEN THE LINE TRIES TO REFORM
EAST OF BLUE RIDGE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THINK HRRR MAY BE A
LITTLE TOO FAST WITH THE TIMING SHOWING EVERYTHING EAST OF CWA BY
22Z...BUT IT MAY NOT BE TOO FAR OFF. STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST
HOW STRONG THIS LINE WILL GET BEFORE GETTING EAST OF THE
AREA...WITH INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT LIMITED YET SHEAR QUITE STRONG.
SHOULD BE GOOD FORCING WITH FRONT HOWEVER...SO SLIGHT RISK FROM
MTV TO LYH AND POINTS EAST LOOKS REASONABLE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS
BEING PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN QLCS TYPE OF MODE EXPECTED. HAIL SHOULD
BE BE MINIMAL GIVEN LIMITED LOW TO MODEST INSTABILITY. KEPT POPS
LOW END OF CATEGORICAL ALL THE WAY THROUGH CWA...AS MOST LOCATIONS
REALLY SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A BRIEF SHOWER...BUT IT`S POSSIBLE LINE
COULD BREAK UP ENOUGH TO WHERE WE WILL NEED TO LOWER POPS IN
CENTRAL PART OF CWA BEFORE LINE REFORMS. ITS ALSO QUITE POSSIBLE
THAT THE LINE DOES NOT GET ITS ACT TOGETHER AGAIN UNTIL IT MAKES
IT EAST OF THE CWA...AND THUS LIMITED SEVERE WX
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IF THIS ENDS UP PUSHING THROUGH A LITTLE
FASTER.
CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE QUICKLY BY LATE AFT IN WEST AND EARLY
EVENING IN EAST...WITH A FEW LINGERING LOW CLOUDS IN WESTERN
SLOPES...BUT LATER ON OVERNIGHT MORE COMPLETE CLEARING EXPECTED
WITH NW WINDS 10-15 MPH.
WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON TEMPS TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND TRIED TO
SHOW SOME COOLING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND LINE OF CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON...PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT FRIDAY...
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST OF OUR REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
A LARGE 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY
AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A
MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN BRISK NW WINDS DURING THE DAY
AND WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IT WILL FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE
SPRING THAN RECENT DAYS...AT LEAST IN THOSE AREAS THAT ESCAPED THE
WEDGE. HIGHS WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL CLIMO NORMS FROM NEAR 60
FAR NW TO NEAR 70 FAR SE. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST ON
SATURDAY AND SHOULD BE PARKED ALMOST OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
DECENT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS THAT WILL CERTAINLY YIELD SOME LOWS IN
THE 30S IN THE COOLER VALLEYS. WIDELY SCATTERED FROST MAY BE A
POSSIBILITY. HIGH SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH
ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE DAY AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND TEMPS REACH LEVELS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. MONDAY LOOKS
TO BE A TRANSITION DAY AS A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
EMERGE FROM THE GULF COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHEAST FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME EVIDENT WITH INCREASNG CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY AND POPS RISING TO CHANCE BY MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...
OVERALL PATTERN WILL AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY MEAN 5H TROFFINESS
ACROSS THE EASTERN ROCKIES AS THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SW OPENS UP AND
RATHER FLAT FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EAST BENEATH PASSING WAVES WELL TO
THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A VERY MOIST OVERRUNNING TYPE SW FLOW BY
MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT
EMERGES INTO THE PLAINS BY DAY7. APPEARS DRIEST PERIODS WILL BE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL DIPPING
INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TO THE SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER
WEAK IMPULSES EJECTING SE ALONG THE BOUNDARY LIKELY TO PRODUCE SOME
SHOWER COVERAGE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT BEFORE THE LARGER
SWATH OF DEEPER MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN NE LATER TUESDAY WHEN WILL
HAVE HIGHER CHANCE POPS. WEAK WEDGE LOOKS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THEN
ERODE DURING THURSDAY AS THE RESIDUAL BACKDOOR FRONT STARTS TO LIFT
BACK NE AS WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE STRONGER COLD FRONT TO THE WEST.
THIS LIKELY THE PERIOD OF BETTER RAIN CHANCES ESPCLY BY THURSDAY WITH
DEEPER PWATS ARRIVING...AND PERHAPS MORE INSTABILITY WITH THE WARM
FRONT AROUND SO MAINLY HIGH CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
AFTER A COOL START WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S EARLY MONDAY...EXPECT
MAINLY UNIFORM TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK PENDING DEGREE OF INSOLATION EACH DAY AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 750 AM EDT FRIDAY...
WEDGE WILL ERODE BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z ACROSS THE AREA AND IFR
CONDITIONS WILL LIFT TO MVFR JUST AHEAD OF A LINE OF SHWRS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY IFR...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW IN IFR ANY
ANY GIVEN AIRPORT SINCE LINE WILL LIKELY BREAK APART THROUGH
CENTRAL PART OF AREA AS IT COMES THROUGH MTNS..AND THEN MAY
REDEVELOP IN PIEDMONT. SO BLF AND LWB MAY SEE BEST CHANCE LATE
THIS MORNING WITH MODERATE SHOWERS...AND THEN BY 18Z TO 19Z AT LYH
AND DAN WHEN CONVECTION REACHES THAT AREA COULD BRIEFLY SEE IFR AS
WELL. SW WINDS WILL GUST TO AS HIGH AS AS 35 KTS OR SO AHEAD OF
THE LINE...AND THEN SHIFT WEST BEHIND IT WITH SIMILAR GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES FOR LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS WITH STORMS WILL
BE LYH AND DAN AFTER 18Z. THEN WINDS BY EARLY EVENING WILL SHIFT
MORE NW AND WEAKEN TO 10-15 KTS...WITH RETURN TO VFR. PERHAPS MVFR
BROKEN CIGS AT BLF AND LWB INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE CLEARING.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
PROLONGED PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD VFR CONTINUES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME RETURN MOISTURE AND
SHOWERS WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR COULD RETURN BY LATE MONDAY BUT
BETTER CHANCES FOR MVFR OR LOCAL IFR BY TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM WEST.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NF/SK
NEAR TERM...DS/SK
SHORT TERM...PC
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...NF/RAB/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1009 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR WEDGE OF STABLE AIR WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL THEN SWEEP
THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAY TODAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM EDT FRIDAY...
THE WEDGE IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA IS PUTTING UP A GOOD
FIGHT...BUT IT WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO STRONG MIXING FROM A
LOFT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WHILE THE WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG HAS ENDED...EXPECT PATCHY FOG OR EVEN PATCHY DENSE FOG
TO SURVIVE FOR A LITTLE BIT LONGER ACROSS MAINLY PARTS OF THE
JAMES RIVER BASIN. IN THE WEST...THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA OF
SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS
REACHED ROUGHLY A BEECH MOUNTAIN NORTH CAROLINA...TO BLAND
VIRGINIA...ANJEAN WEST VIRGINIA LINE. WHILE LITTLE TO NO THUNDER
IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS REGION OF SHOWERS...WE ARE NOT
GOING TO RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STORMS AS THE
PRECIPITATION PROGRESSES INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY MIDDAY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ACTIVITY
REACHES THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND PEAK
HEATING OF THE DAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER OFFER A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM LYNCHBURG TO
REIDSVILLE AND POINTS EAST THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY CONCERN WITH ANY STORM THAT REACHED
SEVERE LEVELS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA IS WITHIN A
MARGINAL POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WITH LESS CHANCE OF
SEVERE WEATHER.
AS OF 653 AM EDT FRIDAY...
MINOR UPDATE TO SLOW DOWN ARRIVAL OF LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR WEST
PER CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...JUST BY AN HOUR OR TWO. ALSO SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS AND LOWER DEW PTS EARLY THIS MORNING THAN WHAT WE
PREVIOUSLY HAD IN THE NORTHEAST...49 AT LYNCHBURG LAST HOUR...SO
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THERE. LINE OF CONVECTION STILL ABOUT 2 HRS
AWAY FROM THE WESTERN FRINGES OF CWA...AND BEGINNING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF WEAKENING IN TERMS OF REFLECTIVITY AS WELL AS TOTAL
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. STILL MAY EVENTUALLY NEED SOME SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS FOR GUSTY WINDS IF IT MAINTAINS SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS AS IT NEARS.
PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...
WEDGE FRONT REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING FROM
NORTH-CENTRAL NC THROUGH NEW RIVER VALLEY AND THEN UP THE
VIRGINIA-WEST VIRGINIA BORDER. LOWEST VISIBILITIES ARE ALONG
SOUTHERN BORDER IN NORTHERN NC AND SOUTHSIDE VA...AND IN
COORDINATION WITH WFO RAH ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THOSE
AREAS THROUGH 9 AM. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN LIFTING NORTH
QUICKLY AROUND SUNRISE OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER...AND SO MAY END UP
CANCELING SLIGHTLY EARLY.
OTHERWISE WE ARE WATCHING LINES OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...AND THERE ARE A FEW AREAS OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NOW
OUT AHEAD OF THESE...FROM UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND A FEW IN ERN
KENTUCKY. HRRR AND HIRES WRF ARW SEEM TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON THIS
AND TIME OF ARRIVAL IN WESTERN PART OF CWA...MAINLY BETWEEN 14Z
AND 15Z...SO DELAYED LIKELY POPS UNTIL THEN...WITH SOME LOW CHC
POPS STARTING AROUND 11Z IN CASE ANYTHING CONTINUES TO POP OUT
AHEAD. ALREADY GETTING SOME VERY LOW INSTABILITY VALUES IN FAR
WEST.
MOST HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE BREAKS THE LINE UP SOMEWHAT AS IT
MOVES INTO WESTERN SLOPES...ALTHOUGH SOME SCATTERED CELLS DO MAKE
IT THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...THEN THE LINE TRIES TO REFORM
EAST OF BLUE RIDGE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THINK HRRR MAY BE A
LITTLE TOO FAST WITH THE TIMING SHOWING EVERYTHING EAST OF CWA BY
22Z...BUT IT MAY NOT BE TOO FAR OFF. STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST
HOW STRONG THIS LINE WILL GET BEFORE GETTING EAST OF THE
AREA...WITH INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT LIMITED YET SHEAR QUITE STRONG.
SHOULD BE GOOD FORCING WITH FRONT HOWEVER...SO SLIGHT RISK FROM
MTV TO LYH AND POINTS EAST LOOKS REASONABLE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS
BEING PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN QLCS TYPE OF MODE EXPECTED. HAIL SHOULD
BE BE MINIMAL GIVEN LIMITED LOW TO MODEST INSTABILITY. KEPT POPS
LOW END OF CATEGORICAL ALL THE WAY THROUGH CWA...AS MOST LOCATIONS
REALLY SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A BRIEF SHOWER...BUT IT`S POSSIBLE LINE
COULD BREAK UP ENOUGH TO WHERE WE WILL NEED TO LOWER POPS IN
CENTRAL PART OF CWA BEFORE LINE REFORMS. ITS ALSO QUITE POSSIBLE
THAT THE LINE DOES NOT GET ITS ACT TOGETHER AGAIN UNTIL IT MAKES
IT EAST OF THE CWA...AND THUS LIMITED SEVERE WX
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IF THIS ENDS UP PUSHING THROUGH A LITTLE
FASTER.
CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE QUICKLY BY LATE AFT IN WEST AND EARLY
EVENING IN EAST...WITH A FEW LINGERING LOW CLOUDS IN WESTERN
SLOPES...BUT LATER ON OVERNIGHT MORE COMPLETE CLEARING EXPECTED
WITH NW WINDS 10-15 MPH.
WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON TEMPS TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND TRIED TO
SHOW SOME COOLING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND LINE OF CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON...PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT FRIDAY...
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST OF OUR REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
A LARGE 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY
AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A
MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN BRISK NW WINDS DURING THE DAY
AND WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IT WILL FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE
SPRING THAN RECENT DAYS...AT LEAST IN THOSE AREAS THAT ESCAPED THE
WEDGE. HIGHS WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL CLIMO NORMS FROM NEAR 60
FAR NW TO NEAR 70 FAR SE. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST ON
SATURDAY AND SHOULD BE PARKED ALMOST OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
DECENT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS THAT WILL CERTAINLY YIELD SOME LOWS IN
THE 30S IN THE COOLER VALLEYS. WIDELY SCATTERED FROST MAY BE A
POSSIBILITY. HIGH SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH
ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE DAY AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND TEMPS REACH LEVELS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. MONDAY LOOKS
TO BE A TRANSITION DAY AS A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
EMERGE FROM THE GULF COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHEAST FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME EVIDENT WITH INCREASNG CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY AND POPS RISING TO CHANCE BY MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...
OVERALL PATTERN WILL AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY MEAN 5H TROFFINESS
ACROSS THE EASTERN ROCKIES AS THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SW OPENS UP AND
RATHER FLAT FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EAST BENEATH PASSING WAVES WELL TO
THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A VERY MOIST OVERRUNNING TYPE SW FLOW BY
MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT
EMERGES INTO THE PLAINS BY DAY7. APPEARS DRIEST PERIODS WILL BE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL DIPPING
INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TO THE SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER
WEAK IMPULSES EJECTING SE ALONG THE BOUNDARY LIKELY TO PRODUCE SOME
SHOWER COVERAGE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT BEFORE THE LARGER
SWATH OF DEEPER MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN NE LATER TUESDAY WHEN WILL
HAVE HIGHER CHANCE POPS. WEAK WEDGE LOOKS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THEN
ERODE DURING THURSDAY AS THE RESIDUAL BACKDOOR FRONT STARTS TO LIFT
BACK NE AS WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE STRONGER COLD FRONT TO THE WEST.
THIS LIKELY THE PERIOD OF BETTER RAIN CHANCES ESPCLY BY THURSDAY WITH
DEEPER PWATS ARRIVING...AND PERHAPS MORE INSTABILITY WITH THE WARM
FRONT AROUND SO MAINLY HIGH CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
AFTER A COOL START WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S EARLY MONDAY...EXPECT
MAINLY UNIFORM TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK PENDING DEGREE OF INSOLATION EACH DAY AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 750 AM EDT FRIDAY...
WEDGE WILL ERODE BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z ACROSS THE AREA AND IFR
CONDITIONS WILL LIFT TO MVFR JUST AHEAD OF A LINE OF SHWRS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY IFR...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW IN IFR ANY
ANY GIVEN AIRPORT SINCE LINE WILL LIKELY BREAK APART THROUGH
CENTRAL PART OF AREA AS IT COMES THROUGH MTNS..AND THEN MAY
REDEVELOP IN PIEDMONT. SO BLF AND LWB MAY SEE BEST CHANCE LATE
THIS MORNING WITH MODERATE SHOWERS...AND THEN BY 18Z TO 19Z AT LYH
AND DAN WHEN CONVECTION REACHES THAT AREA COULD BRIEFLY SEE IFR AS
WELL. SW WINDS WILL GUST TO AS HIGH AS AS 35 KTS OR SO AHEAD OF
THE LINE...AND THEN SHIFT WEST BEHIND IT WITH SIMILAR GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES FOR LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS WITH STORMS WILL
BE LYH AND DAN AFTER 18Z. THEN WINDS BY EARLY EVENING WILL SHIFT
MORE NW AND WEAKEN TO 10-15 KTS...WITH RETURN TO VFR. PERHAPS MVFR
BROKEN CIGS AT BLF AND LWB INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE CLEARING.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
PROLONGED PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD VFR CONTINUES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME RETURN MOISTURE AND
SHOWERS WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR COULD RETURN BY LATE MONDAY BUT
BETTER CHANCES FOR MVFR OR LOCAL IFR BY TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM WEST.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NF/SK
NEAR TERM...DS/SK
SHORT TERM...PC
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...NF/RAB/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
753 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR WEDGE OF STABLE AIR WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL THEN SWEEP
THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAY TODAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 653 AM EDT FRIDAY...
MINOR UPDATE TO SLOW DOWN ARRIVAL OF LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR WEST
PER CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...JUST BY AN HOUR OR TWO. ALSO SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS AND LOWER DEW PTS EARLY THIS MORNING THAN WHAT WE
PREVIOUSLY HAD IN THE NORTHEAST...49 AT LYNCHBURG LAST HOUR...SO
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THERE. LINE OF CONVECTION STILL ABOUT 2 HRS
AWAY FROM THE WESTERN FRINGES OF CWA...AND BEGINNING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF WEAKENING IN TERMS OF REFLECTIVITY AS WELL AS TOTAL
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. STILL MAY EVENTUALLY NEED SOME SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS FOR GUSTY WINDS IF IT MAINTAINS SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS AS IT NEARS.
PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...
WEDGE FRONT REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING FROM
NORTH-CENTRAL NC THROUGH NEW RIVER VALLEY AND THEN UP THE
VIRGINIA-WEST VIRGINIA BORDER. LOWEST VISIBILITIES ARE ALONG
SOUTHERN BORDER IN NORTHERN NC AND SOUTHSIDE VA...AND IN
COORDINATION WITH WFO RAH ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THOSE
AREAS THROUGH 9 AM. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN LIFTING NORTH
QUICKLY AROUND SUNRISE OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER...AND SO MAY END UP
CANCELING SLIGHTLY EARLY.
OTHERWISE WE ARE WATCHING LINES OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...AND THERE ARE A FEW AREAS OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NOW
OUT AHEAD OF THESE...FROM UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND A FEW IN ERN
KENTUCKY. HRRR AND HIRES WRF ARW SEEM TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON THIS
AND TIME OF ARRIVAL IN WESTERN PART OF CWA...MAINLY BETWEEN 14Z
AND 15Z...SO DELAYED LIKELY POPS UNTIL THEN...WITH SOME LOW CHC
POPS STARTING AROUND 11Z IN CASE ANYTHING CONTINUES TO POP OUT
AHEAD. ALREADY GETTING SOME VERY LOW INSTABILITY VALUES IN FAR
WEST.
MOST HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE BREAKS THE LINE UP SOMEWHAT AS IT
MOVES INTO WESTERN SLOPES...ALTHOUGH SOME SCATTERED CELLS DO MAKE
IT THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...THEN THE LINE TRIES TO REFORM
EAST OF BLUE RIDGE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THINK HRRR MAY BE A
LITTLE TOO FAST WITH THE TIMING SHOWING EVERYTHING EAST OF CWA BY
22Z...BUT IT MAY NOT BE TOO FAR OFF. STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST
HOW STRONG THIS LINE WILL GET BEFORE GETTING EAST OF THE
AREA...WITH INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT LIMITED YET SHEAR QUITE STRONG.
SHOULD BE GOOD FORCING WITH FRONT HOWEVER...SO SLIGHT RISK FROM
MTV TO LYH AND POINTS EAST LOOKS REASONABLE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS
BEING PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN QLCS TYPE OF MODE EXPECTED. HAIL SHOULD
BE BE MINIMAL GIVEN LIMITED LOW TO MODEST INSTABILITY. KEPT POPS
LOW END OF CATEGORICAL ALL THE WAY THROUGH CWA...AS MOST LOCATIONS
REALLY SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A BRIEF SHOWER...BUT IT`S POSSIBLE LINE
COULD BREAK UP ENOUGH TO WHERE WE WILL NEED TO LOWER POPS IN
CENTRAL PART OF CWA BEFORE LINE REFORMS. ITS ALSO QUITE POSSIBLE
THAT THE LINE DOES NOT GET ITS ACT TOGETHER AGAIN UNTIL IT MAKES
IT EAST OF THE CWA...AND THUS LIMITED SEVERE WX
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IF THIS ENDS UP PUSHING THROUGH A LITTLE
FASTER.
CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE QUICKLY BY LATE AFT IN WEST AND EARLY
EVENING IN EAST...WITH A FEW LINGERING LOW CLOUDS IN WESTERN
SLOPES...BUT LATER ON OVERNIGHT MORE COMPLETE CLEARING EXPECTED
WITH NW WINDS 10-15 MPH.
WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON TEMPS TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND TRIED TO
SHOW SOME COOLING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND LINE OF CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON...PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT FRIDAY...
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST OF OUR REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
A LARGE 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY
AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A
MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN BRISK NW WINDS DURING THE DAY
AND WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IT WILL FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE
SPRING THAN RECENT DAYS...AT LEAST IN THOSE AREAS THAT ESCAPED THE
WEDGE. HIGHS WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL CLIMO NORMS FROM NEAR 60
FAR NW TO NEAR 70 FAR SE. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST ON
SATURDAY AND SHOULD BE PARKED ALMOST OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
DECENT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS THAT WILL CERTAINLY YIELD SOME LOWS IN
THE 30S IN THE COOLER VALLEYS. WIDELY SCATTERED FROST MAY BE A
POSSIBILITY. HIGH SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH
ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE DAY AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND TEMPS REACH LEVELS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. MONDAY LOOKS
TO BE A TRANSITION DAY AS A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
EMERGE FROM THE GULF COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHEAST FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME EVIDENT WITH INCREASNG CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY AND POPS RISING TO CHANCE BY MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...
OVERALL PATTERN WILL AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY MEAN 5H TROFFINESS
ACROSS THE EASTERN ROCKIES AS THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SW OPENS UP AND
RATHER FLAT FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EAST BENEATH PASSING WAVES WELL TO
THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A VERY MOIST OVERRUNNING TYPE SW FLOW BY
MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT
EMERGES INTO THE PLAINS BY DAY7. APPEARS DRIEST PERIODS WILL BE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL DIPPING
INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TO THE SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER
WEAK IMPULSES EJECTING SE ALONG THE BOUNDARY LIKELY TO PRODUCE SOME
SHOWER COVERAGE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT BEFORE THE LARGER
SWATH OF DEEPER MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN NE LATER TUESDAY WHEN WILL
HAVE HIGHER CHANCE POPS. WEAK WEDGE LOOKS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THEN
ERODE DURING THURSDAY AS THE RESIDUAL BACKDOOR FRONT STARTS TO LIFT
BACK NE AS WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE STRONGER COLD FRONT TO THE WEST.
THIS LIKELY THE PERIOD OF BETTER RAIN CHANCES ESPCLY BY THURSDAY WITH
DEEPER PWATS ARRIVING...AND PERHAPS MORE INSTABILITY WITH THE WARM
FRONT AROUND SO MAINLY HIGH CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
AFTER A COOL START WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S EARLY MONDAY...EXPECT
MAINLY UNIFORM TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK PENDING DEGREE OF INSOLATION EACH DAY AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 750 AM EDT FRIDAY...
WEDGE WILL ERODE BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z ACROSS THE AREA AND IFR
CONDITIONS WILL LIFT TO MVFR JUST AHEAD OF A LINE OF SHWRS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY IFR...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW IN IFR ANY
ANY GIVEN AIRPORT SINCE LINE WILL LIKELY BREAK APART THROUGH
CENTRAL PART OF AREA AS IT COMES THROUGH MTNS..AND THEN MAY
REDEVELOP IN PIEDMONT. SO BLF AND LWB MAY SEE BEST CHANCE LATE
THIS MORNING WITH MODERATE SHOWERS...AND THEN BY 18Z TO 19Z AT LYH
AND DAN WHEN CONVECTION REACHES THAT AREA COULD BRIEFLY SEE IFR AS
WELL. SW WINDS WILL GUST TO AS HIGH AS AS 35 KTS OR SO AHEAD OF
THE LINE...AND THEN SHIFT WEST BEHIND IT WITH SIMILAR GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES FOR LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS WITH STORMS WILL
BE LYH AND DAN AFTER 18Z. THEN WINDS BY EARLY EVENING WILL SHIFT
MORE NW AND WEAKEN TO 10-15 KTS...WITH RETURN TO VFR. PERHAPS MVFR
BROKEN CIGS AT BLF AND LWB INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE CLEARING.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
PROLONGED PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD VFR CONTINUES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME RETURN MOISTURE AND
SHOWERS WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR COULD RETURN BY LATE MONDAY BUT
BETTER CHANCES FOR MVFR OR LOCAL IFR BY TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM WEST.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ043-044-
058-059.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ004>006.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NF/SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...PC
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...NF/RAB/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
654 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR WEDGE OF STABLE AIR WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL THEN SWEEP
THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAY TODAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 653 AM EDT FRIDAY...
MINOR UPDATE TO SLOW DOWN ARRIVAL OF LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR WEST
PER CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...JUST BY AN HOUR OR TWO. ALSO SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS AND LOWER DEW PTS EARLY THIS MORNING THAN WHAT WE
PREVIOUSLY HAD IN THE NORTHEAST...49 AT LYNCHBURG LAST HOUR...SO
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THERE. LINE OF CONVECTION STILL ABOUT 2 HRS
AWAY FROM THE WESTERN FRINGES OF CWA...AND BEGINNING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF WEAKENING IN TERMS OF REFLECTIVITY AS WELL AS TOTAL
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. STILL MAY EVENTUALLY NEED SOME SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS FOR GUSTY WINDS IF IT MAINTAINS SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS AS IT NEARS.
PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...
WEDGE FRONT REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING FROM
NORTH-CENTRAL NC THROUGH NEW RIVER VALLEY AND THEN UP THE
VIRGINIA-WEST VIRGINIA BORDER. LOWEST VISIBILITIES ARE ALONG
SOUTHERN BORDER IN NORTHERN NC AND SOUTHSIDE VA...AND IN
COORDINATION WITH WFO RAH ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THOSE
AREAS THROUGH 9 AM. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN LIFTING NORTH
QUICKLY AROUND SUNRISE OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER...AND SO MAY END UP
CANCELING SLIGHTLY EARLY.
OTHERWISE WE ARE WATCHING LINES OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...AND THERE ARE A FEW AREAS OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NOW
OUT AHEAD OF THESE...FROM UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND A FEW IN ERN
KENTUCKY. HRRR AND HIRES WRF ARW SEEM TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON THIS
AND TIME OF ARRIVAL IN WESTERN PART OF CWA...MAINLY BETWEEN 14Z
AND 15Z...SO DELAYED LIKELY POPS UNTIL THEN...WITH SOME LOW CHC
POPS STARTING AROUND 11Z IN CASE ANYTHING CONTINUES TO POP OUT
AHEAD. ALREADY GETTING SOME VERY LOW INSTABILITY VALUES IN FAR
WEST.
MOST HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE BREAKS THE LINE UP SOMEWHAT AS IT
MOVES INTO WESTERN SLOPES...ALTHOUGH SOME SCATTERED CELLS DO MAKE
IT THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...THEN THE LINE TRIES TO REFORM
EAST OF BLUE RIDGE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THINK HRRR MAY BE A
LITTLE TOO FAST WITH THE TIMING SHOWING EVERYTHING EAST OF CWA BY
22Z...BUT IT MAY NOT BE TOO FAR OFF. STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST
HOW STRONG THIS LINE WILL GET BEFORE GETTING EAST OF THE
AREA...WITH INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT LIMITED YET SHEAR QUITE STRONG.
SHOULD BE GOOD FORCING WITH FRONT HOWEVER...SO SLIGHT RISK FROM
MTV TO LYH AND POINTS EAST LOOKS REASONABLE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS
BEING PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN QLCS TYPE OF MODE EXPECTED. HAIL SHOULD
BE BE MINIMAL GIVEN LIMITED LOW TO MODEST INSTABILITY. KEPT POPS
LOW END OF CATEGORICAL ALL THE WAY THROUGH CWA...AS MOST LOCATIONS
REALLY SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A BRIEF SHOWER...BUT IT`S POSSIBLE LINE
COULD BREAK UP ENOUGH TO WHERE WE WILL NEED TO LOWER POPS IN
CENTRAL PART OF CWA BEFORE LINE REFORMS. ITS ALSO QUITE POSSIBLE
THAT THE LINE DOES NOT GET ITS ACT TOGETHER AGAIN UNTIL IT MAKES
IT EAST OF THE CWA...AND THUS LIMITED SEVERE WX
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IF THIS ENDS UP PUSHING THROUGH A LITTLE
FASTER.
CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE QUICKLY BY LATE AFT IN WEST AND EARLY
EVENING IN EAST...WITH A FEW LINGERING LOW CLOUDS IN WESTERN
SLOPES...BUT LATER ON OVERNIGHT MORE COMPLETE CLEARING EXPECTED
WITH NW WINDS 10-15 MPH.
WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON TEMPS TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND TRIED TO
SHOW SOME COOLING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND LINE OF CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON...PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT FRIDAY...
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST OF OUR REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
A LARGE 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY
AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A
MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN BRISK NW WINDS DURING THE DAY
AND WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IT WILL FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE
SPRING THAN RECENT DAYS...AT LEAST IN THOSE AREAS THAT ESCAPED THE
WEDGE. HIGHS WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL CLIMO NORMS FROM NEAR 60
FAR NW TO NEAR 70 FAR SE. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST ON
SATURDAY AND SHOULD BE PARKED ALMOST OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
DECENT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS THAT WILL CERTAINLY YIELD SOME LOWS IN
THE 30S IN THE COOLER VALLEYS. WIDELY SCATTERED FROST MAY BE A
POSSIBILITY. HIGH SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH
ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE DAY AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND TEMPS REACH LEVELS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. MONDAY LOOKS
TO BE A TRANSITION DAY AS A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
EMERGE FROM THE GULF COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHEAST FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME EVIDENT WITH INCREASNG CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY AND POPS RISING TO CHANCE BY MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...
OVERALL PATTERN WILL AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY MEAN 5H TROFFINESS
ACROSS THE EASTERN ROCKIES AS THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SW OPENS UP AND
RATHER FLAT FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EAST BENEATH PASSING WAVES WELL TO
THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A VERY MOIST OVERRUNNING TYPE SW FLOW BY
MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT
EMERGES INTO THE PLAINS BY DAY7. APPEARS DRIEST PERIODS WILL BE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL DIPPING
INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TO THE SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER
WEAK IMPULSES EJECTING SE ALONG THE BOUNDARY LIKELY TO PRODUCE SOME
SHOWER COVERAGE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT BEFORE THE LARGER
SWATH OF DEEPER MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN NE LATER TUESDAY WHEN WILL
HAVE HIGHER CHANCE POPS. WEAK WEDGE LOOKS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THEN
ERODE DURING THURSDAY AS THE RESIDUAL BACKDOOR FRONT STARTS TO LIFT
BACK NE AS WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE STRONGER COLD FRONT TO THE WEST.
THIS LIKELY THE PERIOD OF BETTER RAIN CHANCES ESPCLY BY THURSDAY WITH
DEEPER PWATS ARRIVING...AND PERHAPS MORE INSTABILITY WITH THE WARM
FRONT AROUND SO MAINLY HIGH CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
AFTER A COOL START WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S EARLY MONDAY...EXPECT
MAINLY UNIFORM TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK PENDING DEGREE OF INSOLATION EACH DAY AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 155 AM EDT FRIDAY...
WEDGE CONTINUES TO KEEP MUCH OF AREA SOCKED IN WITH IFR CIGS...AND
VSBYS HAVE BEEN UP AND DOWN SOME. ONLY AIRPORTS NOT IMPACTED ARE
BLF AND LWB...AND STILL THINK LWB MAY SEEM SOME PERIODS OF IFR
OVERNIGHT AS MID DECK CLEARS OUT...BUT SINCE CIRRUS AHEAD OF NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM CLOSE ON IT`S HEALS THIS MAY NOT LAST LONG OR
BOTTOM OUT AT LIFR. OTHERWISE AREAS WITHIN THE WEDGE...NAMELY
LYH/ROA/DAN/BCB...WILL SEE IFR-LIFR CIGS AND VARYING VSBYS ALL
NIGHT.
FOR FRIDAY...JUST AHEAD OF FRONT BY MID MORNING IFR WEDGE
MAY BRIEFLY ERODE BUT THEN FRONTAL CONVECTION SHOULD BRING MVFR
CIGS BY MID TO LATE MORNING WEST AND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
EAST...WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS. A MORE SOLID LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT APPEARS MOST LIKELY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...WITH A LESSER THREAT TO THE WEST SINCE CONVECTION
SHOULD BE DYING AS IT ARRIVES ON WESTERN SLOPES. WINDS WILL GUST
FROM THE SW AFTER WEDGE ERODES SOON AFTER SUNRISE MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH SUSTAINED 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS ALL AREAS.
HIGHER POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS...WHICH AGAIN WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO
IMPACT LYH AND DAN. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW
10-12KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS IN MOUNTAINS DURING LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...WITH RETURN TO VFR BY EVENING.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
PROLONGED PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD VFR CONTINUES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME RETURN MOISTURE AND
SHOWERS WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR COULD RETURN BY LATE MONDAY BUT
BETTER CHANCES FOR MVFR OR LOCAL IFR BY TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM WEST.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ043-044-
058-059.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ004>006.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NF/SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...PC
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...NF/RAB/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
434 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR WEDGE OF STABLE AIR WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL THEN SWEEP
THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAY TODAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...
WEDGE FRONT REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING FROM
NORTH-CENTRAL NC THROUGH NEW RIVER VALLEY AND THEN UP THE
VIRGINIA-WEST VIRGINIA BORDER. LOWEST VISIBILITIES ARE ALONG
SOUTHERN BORDER IN NORTHERN NC AND SOUTHSIDE VA...AND IN
COORDINATION WITH WFO RAH ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THOSE
AREAS THROUGH 9 AM. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN LIFTING NORTH
QUICKLY AROUND SUNRISE OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER...AND SO MAY END UP
CANCELING SLIGHTLY EARLY.
OTHERWISE WE ARE WATCHING LINES OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...AND THERE ARE A FEW AREAS OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NOW
OUT AHEAD OF THESE...FROM UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND A FEW IN ERN
KENTUCKY. HRRR AND HIRES WRF ARW SEEM TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON THIS
AND TIME OF ARRIVAL IN WESTERN PART OF CWA...MAINLY BETWEEN 14Z
AND 15Z...SO DELAYED LIKELY POPS UNTIL THEN...WITH SOME LOW CHC
POPS STARTING AROUND 11Z IN CASE ANYTHING CONTINUES TO POP OUT
AHEAD. ALREADY GETTING SOME VERY LOW INSTABILITY VALUES IN FAR
WEST.
MOST HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE BREAKS THE LINE UP SOMEWHAT AS IT
MOVES INTO WESTERN SLOPES...ALTHOUGH SOME SCATTERED CELLS DO MAKE
IT THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...THEN THE LINE TRIES TO REFORM
EAST OF BLUE RIDGE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THINK HRRR MAY BE A
LITTLE TOO FAST WITH THE TIMING SHOWING EVERYTHING EAST OF CWA BY
22Z...BUT IT MAY NOT BE TOO FAR OFF. STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST
HOW STRONG THIS LINE WILL GET BEFORE GETTING EAST OF THE
AREA...WITH INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT LIMITED YET SHEAR QUITE STRONG.
SHOULD BE GOOD FORCING WITH FRONT HOWEVER...SO SLIGHT RISK FROM
MTV TO LYH AND POINTS EAST LOOKS REASONABLE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS
BEING PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN QLCS TYPE OF MODE EXPECTED. HAIL SHOULD
BE BE MINIMAL GIVEN LIMITED LOW TO MODEST INSTABILITY. KEPT POPS
LOW END OF CATEGORICAL ALL THE WAY THROUGH CWA...AS MOST LOCATIONS
REALLY SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A BRIEF SHOWER...BUT IT`S POSSIBLE LINE
COULD BREAK UP ENOUGH TO WHERE WE WILL NEED TO LOWER POPS IN
CENTRAL PART OF CWA BEFORE LINE REFORMS. ITS ALSO QUITE POSSIBLE
THAT THE LINE DOES NOT GET ITS ACT TOGETHER AGAIN UNTIL IT MAKES
IT EAST OF THE CWA...AND THUS LIMITED SEVERE WX
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IF THIS ENDS UP PUSHING THROUGH A LITTLE
FASTER.
CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE QUICKLY BY LATE AFT IN WEST AND EARLY
EVENING IN EAST...WITH A FEW LINGERING LOW CLOUDS IN WESTERN
SLOPES...BUT LATER ON OVERNIGHT MORE COMPLETE CLEARING EXPECTED
WITH NW WINDS 10-15 MPH.
WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON TEMPS TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND TRIED TO
SHOW SOME COOLING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND LINE OF CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON...PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT FRIDAY...
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST OF OUR REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
A LARGE 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY
AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A
MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN BRISK NW WINDS DURING THE DAY
AND WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IT WILL FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE
SPRING THAN RECENT DAYS...AT LEAST IN THOSE AREAS THAT ESCAPED THE
WEDGE. HIGHS WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL CLIMO NORMS FROM NEAR 60
FAR NW TO NEAR 70 FAR SE. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST ON
SATURDAY AND SHOULD BE PARKED ALMOST OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
DECENT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS THAT WILL CERTAINLY YIELD SOME LOWS IN
THE 30S IN THE COOLER VALLEYS. WIDELY SCATTERED FROST MAY BE A
POSSIBILITY. HIGH SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH
ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE DAY AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND TEMPS REACH LEVELS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. MONDAY LOOKS
TO BE A TRANSITION DAY AS A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
EMERGE FROM THE GULF COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHEAST FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME EVIDENT WITH INCREASNG CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY AND POPS RISING TO CHANCE BY MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...
OVERALL PATTERN WILL AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY MEAN 5H TROFFINESS
ACROSS THE EASTERN ROCKIES AS THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SW OPENS UP AND
RATHER FLAT FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EAST BENEATH PASSING WAVES WELL TO
THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A VERY MOIST OVERRUNNING TYPE SW FLOW BY
MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT
EMERGES INTO THE PLAINS BY DAY7. APPEARS DRIEST PERIODS WILL BE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL DIPPING
INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TO THE SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER
WEAK IMPULSES EJECTING SE ALONG THE BOUNDARY LIKELY TO PRODUCE SOME
SHOWER COVERAGE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT BEFORE THE LARGER
SWATH OF DEEPER MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN NE LATER TUESDAY WHEN WILL
HAVE HIGHER CHANCE POPS. WEAK WEDGE LOOKS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THEN
ERODE DURING THURSDAY AS THE RESIDUAL BACKDOOR FRONT STARTS TO LIFT
BACK NE AS WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE STRONGER COLD FRONT TO THE WEST.
THIS LIKELY THE PERIOD OF BETTER RAIN CHANCES ESPCLY BY THURSDAY WITH
DEEPER PWATS ARRIVING...AND PERHAPS MORE INSTABILITY WITH THE WARM
FRONT AROUND SO MAINLY HIGH CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
AFTER A COOL START WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S EARLY MONDAY...EXPECT
MAINLY UNIFORM TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK PENDING DEGREE OF INSOLATION EACH DAY AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 155 AM EDT FRIDAY...
WEDGE CONTINUES TO KEEP MUCH OF AREA SOCKED IN WITH IFR CIGS...AND
VSBYS HAVE BEEN UP AND DOWN SOME. ONLY AIRPORTS NOT IMPACTED ARE
BLF AND LWB...AND STILL THINK LWB MAY SEEM SOME PERIODS OF IFR
OVERNIGHT AS MID DECK CLEARS OUT...BUT SINCE CIRRUS AHEAD OF NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM CLOSE ON IT`S HEALS THIS MAY NOT LAST LONG OR
BOTTOM OUT AT LIFR. OTHERWISE AREAS WITHIN THE WEDGE...NAMELY
LYH/ROA/DAN/BCB...WILL SEE IFR-LIFR CIGS AND VARYING VSBYS ALL
NIGHT.
FOR FRIDAY...JUST AHEAD OF FRONT BY MID MORNING IFR WEDGE
MAY BRIEFLY ERODE BUT THEN FRONTAL CONVECTION SHOULD BRING MVFR
CIGS BY MID TO LATE MORNING WEST AND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
EAST...WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS. A MORE SOLID LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT APPEARS MOST LIKELY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...WITH A LESSER THREAT TO THE WEST SINCE CONVECTION
SHOULD BE DYING AS IT ARRIVES ON WESTERN SLOPES. WINDS WILL GUST
FROM THE SW AFTER WEDGE ERODES SOON AFTER SUNRISE MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH SUSTAINED 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS ALL AREAS.
HIGHER POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS...WHICH AGAIN WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO
IMPACT LYH AND DAN. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW
10-12KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS IN MOUNTAINS DURING LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...WITH RETURN TO VFR BY EVENING.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
PROLONGED PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD VFR CONTINUES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME RETURN MOISTURE AND
SHOWERS WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR COULD RETURN BY LATE MONDAY BUT
BETTER CHANCES FOR MVFR OR LOCAL IFR BY TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM WEST.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ043-044-
058-059.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ004>006.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NF/SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...PC
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...NF/RAB/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND
900 PM PDT SAT APR 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS WELL EAST OF THE CASCADES
TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ARE NEAR OR JUST BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES...AND
SHOWERS MAY BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN SPOTS LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR A
SHORT-LIVED DRYING TREND. ANOTHER WELL ORGANIZED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
COLD UPPER TROUGH OVERNIGHT MON INTO TUE MORNING. WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS DEVELOP MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BASED ON THE LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE AXIS OF THE COLD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION TODAY IS NOW OVER FAR EASTERN
WASHINGTON AND OREGON...MOVING INTO IDAHO. HOWEVER SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO IMPACT AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES THIS EVENING IN MODERATE ONSHORE
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES AND COAST
RANGE...AND WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRES PUSHES INTO THE PAC NW AND BEGINS TO STABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN JUST BELOW THE HIGHER CASCADE
PASSES...AND SOME OF THE AREA WEBCAMS HAVE BEEN SHOWING LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING ON THE ROAD SURFACES DURING HEAVIER SHOWERS
EARLIER THIS EVENING. QPF WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED GOING FORWARD...BUT
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A QUICK INCH OR TWO OF SNOW TO
ACCUMULATE OVERNIGHT FOR THE PASSES...MAINLY AT ELEVATIONS OF ROUGHLY
4000 FT OR HIGHER.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND
SUN. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH CLEARING OVER THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY
AND CENTRAL COAST RANGE VALLEYS FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z SUN. THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRES SHOULD KEEP
THINGS MAINLY DRY ON SUN...ALTHOUGH THE FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THIS WILL BE A DIRTY RIDGE SITUATION WITH CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGERING MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF SW WA AND FAR NW OR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE BEST CONDITIONS
LOOK TO BE OVER THE FURTHER SOUTH PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA.
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT BRINGING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT
FRONT TO THE COAST AROUND 18Z MON. FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE INTERIOR
MON AFTERNOON AND MON EVENING. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO THE
ONE THAT WENT THROUGH LAST NIGHT. A 3-5 HR BURST OF PRECIP FOLLOWED
BY AN 18-24 HR PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. CASCADE SNOW
LEVELS MON MORNING EXPECTED TO BE 5000 FT AND HIGHER...THEN DROPPING
TO 2500-3500 FEET BY 12Z TUE. THERE SHOULD BE ACCUMULATING SNOW MON
NIGHT...BUT STILL TOO EARLY FOR PRECISE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP OCCURS WHEN SNOW LEVELS
ARE ABOVE THE PASSES...AS WAS THE CASE WITH THE COLD FRONT LAST
NIGHT. THE FRONT COULD GIVE LOW-END ADVISORY AMOUNTS NEAR AND ABOVE
THE PASSES...BUT HOPE TO FINE-TUNE THIS WITH THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION MON NIGHT... WITH THE
BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS TUE MORNING. PYLE/WEISHAAR
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...500 MB RIDGING RETURNS
WEDNESDAY...BUT ITS STRENGTH WILL BE IN QUESTION. THE 12Z ECMWF AND
GFS ARE QUITE SIMILAR...WITH THE 570 DM HEIGHT CONTOUR ALONG THE
COLUMBIA RIVER. BOTH MODELS SHOW SOME WARM-FRONTAL OVER-RUNNING
PRECIP CLOSE TO THE SW WA ZONES WED...BUT DID NOT MENTION ANY PRECIP
FOR THE CWA. MODEL DIFFERENCES START TO BECOME MORE APPARENT THU. THE
GFS HAS A WEAK SHORT-WAVE APPROACHING THE COAST THU AFTERNOON... WITH
STRENGTHENING ON-SHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. GFS ACTUALLY BRINGS THE .01
PRECIP CONTOUR TO THE FAR N OREGON COAST. THE ECMWF HAS A STRONGER
RIDGE...BUT OPTED TO LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE SW WA ZONES FOR
NOW. FRI AND SAT ARE MORE MUDDLED. GFS BRINGS THE SHORT-WAVE THROUGH
FRI MORNING...MORE INDICATIVE OF A STRONG MARINE SURGE. THE ECMWF
HOLDS ON TO ITS RIDGE MUCH OF FRI THEN FORMING A CLOSED 500 MB LOW
OFF THE S OREGON COAST 00Z SAT. HAVE LEANED TOWARD A DRY FORECAST
FRI-SAT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN GENERAL DETAILS REMAINS ON THE LOW END.
WEISHAAR
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS REMAIN N OF A KONP-KCVO LINE AND IN
CASCADES...BUT GENERALLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE AREA AND EXPECT OCCASIONAL VFR
CIGS WITH SOME SCATTERING AT TIMES TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE OF SOME
CLEARING IS FURTHER SOUTH...AND WHILE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY
FOG NEAR KEUG...ONLY ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE GIVEN LARGE T/TD
SPREAD AND WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME. INCREASED
CLOUDS TO THE NORTH WILL LIKELY INHIBIT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH SCT-BKN MID CLOUD DECK AND LIGHT NEAR-SURFACE WINDS. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH 05Z BUT DIMINISHING IN
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE.
&&
.MARINE...GENERAL WINDS HAVE EASED OVER THE WATERS THIS
EVENING...THOUGH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 25 KT ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITIES WILL REMAIN FOR ANOTHER
HOUR OR TWO AS SHOWERS TAPER TONIGHT. A WEST SWELL IS REACHING THE
OUTER WATERS AT THIS TIME WITH SEAS REACHING 10 FT IN THE NORTHERN
WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 12 FT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AND
CURRENT TIMING OF THE ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS LOOKS ON TRACK.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL BEGIN LATE SUN
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT
WILL CROSS THE WATERS. CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECISE THE DURATION AND
TIMING OF STRONGEST WINDS REMAINS A BIT LOWER THAN NORMAL DUE TO
SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG FORECAST MODELS...BUT EXPECT
PEAK GUSTS AROUND 25 KT. SEAS WILL EASE A BIT ON MONDAY TO 8-9 FT
BUT THEN REBUILD TO NEAR 12 FT AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A
MORE SIGNIFICANT SWELL MAY ARRIVE BY THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 15 FT.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 AM
PDT SUNDAY AND AGAIN FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM PDT SUNDAY.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
650 PM PDT SAT APR 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front has moved through the region leaving unsettled
weather this afternoon. Widespread showers accompanied by breezy
conditions will give way to a ridge of high pressure Sunday.
Another front will approach the area Monday night bringing a
return to unsettled weather including breezy conditions and
scattered afternoon/evening showers.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Early evening update to remove thunderstorms and to increase snow
amounts over Stevens Pass. Chances for precip were also increased
a little bit in the lower portion of the Upper Columbia Basin and
into the Palouse where a weak convergence zone is located. Not
enough instability was generated this afternoon to see much in the
way of any thunderstorm activity. There were a few lightning
strikes just north of the border of the Northern Panhandle, but
chances of seeing any thunderstorms this evening anywhere across
the Inland Northwest is minimal.
The focus for this evening will turn to the Cascade crest where a
Puget Sound Convergence zone has set up over Stevens Pass. Latest
web cams at 600 PM show snow accumulating over the pass. It looks
as if the snow accumulated rather rapidly, which is characteristic
of these convergence zones. The HRRR model seems to be handling
this rather well and shows this convergence zone strengthening
over the next few hours through at least 900 PM this evening. Any
travelers heading over Stevens Pass this evening should prepare
for heavy snow with rapid changes to visibility. Snowfall rates of
between 1-1.5 inches will easily be possible. The HRRR model does
show this convergence zone weakening by 1000 PM and possibly
shifting a little bit north of Stevens Pass. However, light snow
showers are expected to persist through tonight. We will handle
this situation with NOWCasts for now and provide updates on our
social media pages when possible. Traditional highlights are not
expected at this time as it will be a fairly localized event and
primarily only impact travel over Stevens Pass. /SVH
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Westerly winds will be gusty through the late afternoon
and early evening hours and then gradually decrease tonight.
Showers will also wane tonight, but will linger at the Cascade
crest and over the higher terrain in the ID Panhandle. These
lingering showers will also likely result in some mountain
obscurations overnight. VFR conditions are expected to prevail at
all TAF sites except KPUW may see some MVFR cigs in the morning
between 10-16Z; however, confidence is too low to include in the
TAF at this time. /SVH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 32 49 36 62 37 50 / 20 10 0 0 60 50
Coeur d`Alene 31 49 33 64 36 49 / 30 10 0 10 80 60
Pullman 32 49 36 64 36 48 / 40 10 0 10 80 50
Lewiston 35 56 38 70 43 53 / 20 10 0 10 70 50
Colville 31 52 33 61 38 54 / 40 10 0 10 40 50
Sandpoint 32 48 30 60 35 49 / 50 10 0 10 80 70
Kellogg 30 45 33 63 36 44 / 50 30 0 10 90 70
Moses Lake 33 56 36 64 37 56 / 10 0 0 0 10 10
Wenatchee 35 56 40 62 40 54 / 20 0 0 10 10 10
Omak 30 54 33 61 34 55 / 10 10 0 10 20 20
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
125 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE SAVANNAH RIVER TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING MID WEEK. A HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT INTO LATE IN THE
WEEK...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
12/04Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND RAP INSTABILITY PROGS PLACED THE COLD
FRONT ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER. THE FRONT AS ESSENTIALLY BECOME
STATIONARY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH NEUTRAL PRESSURE TRENDS
NOTED UPSTREAM. THE FRONT MAY DRIFT A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT IT WILL ESSENTIALLY REMAIN STATIONARY. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A TSTM OR TWO
DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT PRIOR TO SUNRISE. WILL
SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE COUNTIES BORDERING THE SAVANNAH
RIVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHER AREAS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY...ESPECIALLY FAR NORTHERN AREAS WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN
INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S.
THERE ARE A LARGE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING...
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS UPPER PORTIONS OF DORCHESTER
AND BERKELEY COUNTIES TO AROUND 70 ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. SINCE THE FRONT WILL MOVE LITTLE OVERNIGHT...A SLIGHT
UPWARD ADJUSTMENT IS NEEDED FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S FAR NORTH... LOWER 60S
ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH MID 60S SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR OR NOT FAR TO THE SOUTH OF
THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AS IT RUNS INTO MID LEVEL RIDGING AND BECOMES
GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SAME TIME A LARGE AND
FAIRLY DECENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE
DELMARVA...WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF A WEAK AND TRANSIENT WEDGE TO
DEVELOP INLAND FROM THE CWFA. INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT...MOST
NOTABLY ON THE 295K AND 300K SURFACES...OR ABOUT 3500-6000 FT WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL OCCUR SIMULTANEOUSLY IN WITH AN
INFLUX OF MARINE MOISTURE WITH AN EASTERLY SYNOPTIC FEED OFF THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS TO THE
SOUTH OF I-16 DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON IN CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THE DEEPEST MOISTURE. FURTHER NORTH THERE
IS TOO MUCH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH AND LESS MOISTURE THAN
FURTHER SOUTH. STILL...WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OFF THE ATLANTIC
THERE STILL COULD BE SOME SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP INTO PARTS OF COASTAL
SC. THERMODYNAMICS AND SHEAR IS MINIMAL...SO THERE ISN/T TOO MUCH
RISK FOR THUNDER. BUT SINCE IT WAS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST WE HAVE
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT RISK FOR THE AFTERNOON OVER FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH/SE TO NORTH/NW AND WILL PLAY A
BIG ROLE IN HOW WARM TEMPS ARE ABLE TO REACH. FOR NOW WE HAVE MID
AND UPPER 70S INLAND FROM THE COOLER BARRIER ISLAND COMMUNITIES.
WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE
DECENT PINCHING WILL TRANSPIRE BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE INLAND
WEDGE. MAX GUSTS WILL HIT 25 OR EVEN 30 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT...SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY OVERHEAD WHILE THE
CORE OF THE HIGH PULLS FURTHER OFFSHORE AND TO THE SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND. BUT ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGING MAINTAINS ITS GRIP INLAND OVER
THE SE...WHILE THE STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH BEGINS TO SLIP A
LITTLE NORTHWARD. HOW QUICKLY THIS TRANSITION OCCURS WILL DETERMINE
WHEN RAIN CHANCES WILL SPREAD FURTHER NORTHWARD. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
WILL INCREASE FURTHER THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE STRENGTHENS AND THE ONSHORE TRAJECTORIES DEEPEN FURTHER.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN CHANCES TO GRADUALLY CLIMB...MAINLY INTO
THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE NORTH/NW AND THE CHANCE RANGE SOUTH/SE.
SOUNDING PROFILES ARE SUGGESTIVE OF POSSIBLE STRATUS BUILD-DOWN
THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT/ECHO TRAINING COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-16. THE LACK OF STRONG
INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM SOUTH OF THE FRONT UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING.
AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE DEEPER INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIMITED TO
FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND DIURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION SHOULD
END THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE EVENING.D-DOWN AND
THIS MIGHT LEAD TO SOME FOG CONCERNS LATE. TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
WHAT IS ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT...LOWS ABOUT 10F ABOVE NORMAL.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL SLIDE INTO
THE ATLANTIC AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL EJECT EASTWARD FROM THE CUT
OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THIS ALLOWS FOR SOME GRADUAL
PROGRESSION TO THE SURFACE SCENARIO...FORCING THE SURFACE HIGH TO
PULL MORE EASTWARD AND ALLOWS THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH TO TRANSITION
INTO A WARM FRONT THAT LIFTS INTO AND NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THERE
IS SUBTLE FORCING AS THE SHORT WAVE ARRIVES LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...ALONG WITH CONTINUED ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON SEVERAL DIFFERENT
SURFACES. ADDITIONAL FORCING WILL RESULT DUE TO THE WARM FRONT IN
SYNC WITH PWATS THAT CLIMB TO MORE THAN 1.75 INCHES...SOME 1-2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST 30-50
POPS EVERYWHERE...ALTHOUGH ONCE WE HAVE A BETTER IDEA ON EXACT
TRENDS THESE VALUES COULD BE RAISED IN FUTURISTIC FORECASTS.
THERMODYNAMICS AND SHEAR ARE AGAIN LIMITED...SO NO MORE THAN MAINLY
DIURNAL AND ISOLATED T-STORMS ARE PRESENTLY ANTICIPATED.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD THE DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPS TO
ONLY ABOUT 10-14F...WITH ABOVE NORMAL VALUES AT NIGHT AND NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAYTIME. STRATUS BUILD-DOWN COULD
AGAIN LEAD TO SOME FOG CONCERNS.
THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT/ECHO TRAINING COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-16. THE LACK OF STRONG
INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM SOUTH OF THE FRONT UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING.
AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE DEEPER INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIMITED TO
FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND DIURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION SHOULD
END THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE EVENING.IDE INTO
THE ATLANTIC AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL EJECT EASTWARD FROM THE CUT
OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THIS ALLOWS FOR SOME GRADUAL
PROGRESSION TO THE SURFACE SCENARIO...FORCING THE SURFACE HIGH TO
PULL MORE EASTWARD AND ALLOWS THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH TO TRANSITION
INTO A WARM FRONT THAT LIFTS INTO AND NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THERE
IS SUBTLE FORCING AS THE SHORT WAVE ARRIVES LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...ALONG WITH CONTINUED ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON SEVERAL DIFFERENT
SURFACES. ADDITIONAL FORCING WILL RESULT DUE TO THE WARM FRONT IN
SYNC WITH PWATS THAT CLIMB TO MORE THAN 1.75 INCHES...SOME 1-2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST 30-50
POPS EVERYWHERE...ALTHOUGH ONCE WE HAVE A BETTER IDEA ON EXACT
TRENDS THESE VALUES COULD BE RAISED IN FUTURISTIC FORECASTS.
THERMODYNAMICS AND SHEAR ARE AGAIN LIMITED...SO NO MORE THAN MAINLY
DIURNAL AND ISOLATED T-STORMS ARE PRESENTLY ANTICIPATED.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD THE DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPS TO
ONLY ABOUT 10-14F...WITH ABOVE NORMAL VALUES AT NIGHT AND NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAYTIME. STRATUS BUILD-DOWN COULD
AGAIN LEAD TO SOME FOG CONCERNS.
TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AT THE START OF THE DAY WILL TRAVERSE SLOWLY
EASTWARD...BUT HAS IT BECOMES ORIENTED TO THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
IT WILL BE A SLOW TRANSITION. EVEN SO...THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE APPROACHING FRONT AND INDICATIONS OF A BETTER DEFINED SHORT WAVE
ALOFT WILL OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEEP AND RICH SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
MID-APRIL NORMS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...PERHAPS WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS GIVEN THE HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT AND GOOD 850 MB MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE.
THERMODYNAMICS AND SHEAR ARE AGAIN RESTRICTED DUE TO PLENTIFUL CLOUD
COVER...BUT WITH DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S THERE MIGHT BE A
LITTLE BETTER LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND CAPE. THUS WE HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. WARM ADVECTION AND EVEN SOME
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR MAX
TEMPS TO REACH 75-80 AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS FAIRLY UNSETTLED. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
EAST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST IN ITS WAKE ON WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT
INTO THE ATLANTIC THURSDAY...WHILE A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS.
WITH FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES PROGGED TO EJECT FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
IMPACT THE AREA ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KCHS...VFR. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
THERE ARE NO CONCERNS.
KSAV...WATCHING AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS AT KHXD-KNBC-KARW. THESE
CLOUDS ARE JUST BEHIND A STATIONARY FRONT...WHICH IS POSITIONED
NEAR THE TERMINAL. THINK THESE CIGS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
TERMINAL THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT THIS NEEDS TO BE WATCHED. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE PROGGED TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO SUNRISE ALONG OR
JUST NORTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. WILL CARRY VCSH 09-15Z FOR NOW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE FRONT TODAY...
BUT IT IS NOT ENTIRE CLEAR IF MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
INLAND FROM THE TERMINAL. PREFER TO KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE 06Z TAF
FOR NOW...BUT THIS WILL BE REEVALUATE WITH THE 12Z TAF CYCLE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH...STRATUS BUILD-DOWN IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT KSAV. IF IT DOES OCCUR THEN SUB-VFR
WEATHER WOULD DEVELOP. OTHERWISE... FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY AT
TIMES DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK AS SHOWERS
AND T-STORMS RETURN.
&&
.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A COLD FRONT WHICH HAS PASSED THROUGH AMZ330-AMZ350
WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH OVERNIGHT. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...S/SE WINDS
WILL REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS. NORTH OF THE FRONT...E-NE WINDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY INCREASE...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY...A 1030 MB HIGH PULLING EAST THROUGH THE DELMARVA WILL
EXTEND SOUTH/SW AND INLAND OVER THE SE STATES...WHILE A STATIONARY
FRONT HOLDS NOT FAR TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL GENERATE A TIGHTENING OF
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...ENOUGH SO THAT WE HAVE RAISED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGS FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR AND THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY WATERS OUT 20 NM. NE/EAST WINDS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR 20 KT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KT...ENOUGH FOR THE ADVISORY. MEANWHILE FURTHER
SOUTH...WE/LL LIKELY BE JUST BELOW ANY ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ON THE
AMZ352-354 WATERS UNLESS THE STRONGER PINCHING IS FORCED FURTHER
SOUTH. BUT A FAVORABLE FETCH WILL PUSH SEAS UP TO 6 FT ACROSS THE
OUTER GA WATERS...AND WE HAVE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THERE BEGINNING
IN THE AFTERNOON FOR THOSE CONDITIONS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL BE FOUND ON THE GA WATERS.
SUNDAY NIGHT...IT/LL BE A VERY SLOW TRANSITION BETWEEN THE FRONT TO
THE SOUTH ATTEMPTING TO CHANGE INTO A WARM FRONT AND LIFTING BACK
NORTH...WHILE THE BLOCKING RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE TO THE NORTH. WITH
TIME THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO SLACKEN...BUT UNTIL THEN WE STILL
HAVE THE PREVIOUS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES GOING INTO THE NIGHT.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL ALSO OVERSPREAD THE
LOCAL WATERS.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN UNDERGOES GRADUAL
CHANGES...AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH IN RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE TO
THE NORTH PULLING EAST. UPSTREAM A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST/NW BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW
ANY ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AS AN EASTERLY FETCH CLOCKS AROUND TO THE
SOUTH/SW. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL
STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH/SE OF THE MARINE COMMUNITY...AS A STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE DEVELOPS INLAND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE PACKING OF
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME ENHANCED AND AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE REQUIRED.
RIP CURRENTS...ALTHOUGH THE RISK LOOKS MARGINAL...GIVEN EAST/NE
WINDS OF 15-20 MPH AND GUSTY AND SWELLS OF 2-3 FT EVERY 8-9 SECONDS
WE HAVE GONE WITH OUR FIRST MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS OF THE
SEASON. BE SAFE IF AT THE BEACH...AND DON/T GO IN THE WATER IF CAN/T
SWIM.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR AMZ330.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR AMZ374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR AMZ350.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
411 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 410 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2015
Activity over eastern KS/western MO is making very slow progress to
the east northeast as it hits the "wall" of drier air over region.
However, models continue to spread higher dewpts into western MO
this morning on nose of low level jet. This in conjunction with a
decent shortwave over central KS, a more substantial area of storms
have developed and the 05z HRRR tracks this complex east northeast
towards forecast area over the next several hours. Scattered showers
and some elevated convection to move through central and northeast
MO, west central IL through midday before diminishing. Otherwise,
main issue for today will be the temperatures. Will see decent cloud
cover today, so will trend towards the cooler guidance and kept
highs in the upper 60s far north to the mid 70s far south, where the
cloud cover may be thinner.
Byrd
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 410 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2015
Primary forecast concerns for tonight and into Monday remain focused
on how to handle the precipitation threat during this time period.
All of the 00z synoptic solutions...as well as the latest available
hi-res output...are continuing earlier trends depicting an
agonizingly slow southeast push of the showers and thunderstorms
overnight tonight. Initially the delay seems to be the result of
the residually dry low level air, but once the moisture does arrive
most of the lift is primarily focused over northwest sections of the
CWA...due to shortwave energy and (by late tonight) forcing along
cold front. Given the good agreement in the solutions I`ve tried to
"think" slow with the progression of PoPs into our southeast
counties, but over NW sections of the FA forecast will push PoPs
into the categorical range by late tonight due the plentiful
moisture in this area as well as the aforementioned lifting
mechanisms, and low level jet advecting unstable air into this area.
Can`t totally rule out a threat of some hail with the overnight
storms, but with the best instability remaining over the Plains the
Day 1 SWO depiction that keeps the primary severe weather threat
west of our CWA looks good.
Precipitation chances will be pushing southeast on Monday with the
cold front, and by afternoon it would appear the only rain threat
left in our CWA will be confined to our far southeast counties.
Placement of PoPs during the morning a bit of a question mark as
there is some uncertainly on how fast the band of showers and storms
over northwest sections of the CWA will wind down during the predawn
hours, but for now will stay fairly close to going trends which has
the northern edge of the morning rain near a KPPQ-KJEF line.
With cold front dropping south of the FA, and with surface ridge
pushing into the region in the front`s wake, dry forecast still
looks good for Monday night and into Tuesday. However, threat of
wet weather will return Tuesday night and Wednesday as remnants of
upper low meanders north-northeast from the southern Plains. For
now, have maintained chance PoPs with this system.
Overall, no big AMS changes appear to be in the offing through
midweek so temperatures should be near mid-April averages, with
temperature specifics largely driven by cloud cover.
As the remnants of the upper low lifts into the upper Midwest by
Wednesday evening, upper level low is forecast to develop over the
southern Rockies, with both the GFS and ECMWF eventually cutting
the his low off from the westerlies. In spite of the fact that the
stronger westerly flow (and dynamics) will become established
primarily north of our area, there are suggestions of weak
shortwaves ejecting from the upper low. So, will continue chance
PoPs over most of the CWA for the Thu-Sat time frame, with near
seasonal temperatures.
Truett
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2015
VFR for at least the first 0-6 hours and probably longer at all
TAF sites except for KUIN, where scattered showers are possible
overnight and towards morning. Confidence is too low to include in
the KUIN TAF attm. Mid and high level clouds will continue to
increase through the period ahead of an approaching disturbance.
Towards the end of the 24hr TAF period and beyond, showers and
thunderstorms are possible when a cold front moves across the
region.
Specifics for KSTL: VFR for at least the first 0-6 hours and
probably longer. Mid and high level clouds will continue to
increase ahead of an approaching disturbance. Rain chances are
highest during the last 6 hours of the 30hr TAF ahead of a cold
front, although a scattered shower is possible earlier. Winds will
briefly turn southwesterly late in the TAF period ahead of the
aforementioned cold front then become northwesterly after fropa.
Kanofsky
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 73 59 71 47 / 10 70 30 10
Quincy 69 56 68 41 / 40 80 10 5
Columbia 72 57 69 44 / 40 80 10 5
Jefferson City 73 58 69 45 / 30 80 20 5
Salem 73 57 71 48 / 10 50 50 10
Farmington 73 57 69 48 / 10 50 50 10
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1200 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 418 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015
Tonight - Sunday Night:
A fairly active period as first a weak mid level shortwave tracks
ene out of CO as isentropic lift/warm air advection from 300K-310K
surface expands/increases across KS into MO. This mostly a
reflection of the nocturnal low-level jet ramping up and veering to
the southwest. The sputtering elevated convection over southwest KS
likely in response to the aforementioned h7 shortwave and isentropic
ascent. Have patterned tonight`s PoPs from last several HRRR runs
which is faster and further east with the precipitation. Seems
reasonable as the models typically underplay how far downstream warm
advection convection can extend. Elevated instability looks rather
puny and only a few hundred J/kg so will go with isolated thunder.
Small sub-severe hail possible.
First wave of convection should lift northeast in the morning with
maybe a sputtering second area following close on its heels. How the
morning convection plays out and how much the clouds clear out will
determine the strength of the stronger convection tied to the cold
front. What is interesting is how the NAM generates pre-frontal
convection along an instability axis with progged MLCAPEs in excess
of 2000 J/kg. Since there have been at least 3 consecutive model
runs generating this convection can`t totally dismiss it. The
current forecast is constructed with the idea that pre-frontal
convection will form late afternoon or early evening across
northeast KS and northwest MO with the cold front generated
convection eventually dropping southeast and merging. So, highest
PoPs will be across the northwest 1/2 of the CWA in the evening and
then allow the squalline to steadily translate southeast. The
evening convection could contain some marginally severe hail due to
the moderate instability and 30-40kt 0-6km shear which could support
sufficient updraft strength.
Monday - Tuesday:
Looks like we`ll be in between minor shortwave ridging aloft
shifting across the Northern Plains while a closed upper low lifts
northeast from West TX. Will maintain a dry forecast although there
is some concern that increasing warm air advection and weak lift
tied to the upper low opening up as it heads our way could force us
to add PoPs in later forecasts. Otherwise, dry surface high pressure
on Monday with northeast winds should grant us highs in the 65-70
range. Tuesday should see at least increasing high clouds which will
negate any boundary layer warming so max temperatures should keep
highs in the 60s.
Wednesday - Saturday:
A very uncertain period as the medium range models bounce around
with their solutions. The left overs from the closed upper low will
linger on Wednesday so will use low end chance PoPs to handle any
scattered light convection. Instability looks poor so thunder
chances will be low.
The rest of the period will be handled using a blended model
approach. As the latest GFS is now trending closely with the last
couple of runs of the ECMWF in handling the deep upper trough
tracking through the Rockies am anticipating the next forecast or
the one thereafter going towards drier conditions. The ECMWF has
trended towards developing a cut-off low over the Southern Rockies
and this solution is looking more and more likely, which would mean
delaying PoPs and above average temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2015
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to lift northeast
during the early morning hours, impacting all TAF sites by 07z-08z.
There may be a few brief breaks in precipitation, but periods of
showers and storms are expected through at least mid-morning Sunday.
Ceilings will likely remain VFR; however, visibilities could briefly
drop into the MVFR category in heaviest showers. Precipitation will
taper off by late morning Sunday, then will redevelop along a cold
front near or slightly after 06z.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Laflin
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1258 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015
SENT AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO TRIM THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SOME
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS MODEL DATA IS COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6 IN
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WHILE THE HRRR DOES SHOW SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING A BIT FURTHER NORTH...THIS MODEL SOLUTION
APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER AT THE MOMENT AND PRESENTLY THERE IS
VERY LIMITED CONVECTION TO OUR WEST WHERE IT INDICATES A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
DEVELOPING...WHICH FURTHER DISCREDITS THAT SOLUTION. OTHER THAN
TRIMMING THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
SUNDAY...NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
PACKAGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW CIRRUS AND A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS HAVE
BEEN INCREASING...BUT VERY SLOWLY.
MODELS HAVE A FEW DIFFERENCES IN LOCATION OF ANY PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT. SOME OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW SOME SPOTTY TYPE
PRECIPITATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. ALL OF IT
LOOKS TO BE MORE LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HAVE KEPT THE LOW POP IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DODGE CITY AREA MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST THEY COULD GET INTO THE SOUTH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SATELLITE SHOWS A FEW CUMULUS DEVELOPING A LITTLE TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS. THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE THIS EVENING
MAINLY ACROSS KANSAS AND NEARBY AREAS OF NEBRASKA.
THE SAME CONCERNS LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE NAM HAS THE
PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT OF THE AREA WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST FOR
SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA BY MID DAY.
THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT. BY AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MOST MODELS DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND WHEN THE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF THE AREA WILL HAVE
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE KEPT THEM MOSTLY IN THE EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015
THE WEEK WILL START DRY AND SEASONAL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER A COOLISH
START...LIGHT WINDS...SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE
FOR A VERY NICE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL BE VERY LOW WITH AMBIENT DRY AIR...BUT LIGHT WINDS
WILL KEEP THE NEED FOR ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITION
PRODUCTS/HEADLINES AT BAY.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER DRY DAY...BUT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
START TO CREEP INTO THE FORECAST. LOOK FOR STRONG SOUTH WINDS
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. MODELS ALWAYS TRY TO PUSH
MOISTURE RETURN IN SOUTHERLY FLOW BACK TOO QUICK EARLY IN THE
SEASON...AND BELIEVE THAT WILL BE THE CASE HERE. LOOKS LIKE A
DECENT BET CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE REACHED FOR
SOME AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MAY NOT BE ALL AREAS...AND DOES
FAVOR THE ABOUT THE NORTHWEST 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE REST OF WEEK IS A REALLY CHALLENGING FORECAST AT THIS POINT
AND THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY CHANGE DAILY AS FINER DETAILS
OPEN UP A BIT. THE MAIN ISSUE IS WHETHER A CUT OFF LOW WILL
FORM/MEANDER ITS WAY THROUGH THE PLAINS OR NOT. THE ANSWER
IS STILL QUITE AN UNKNOWN. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF
A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER WAVE...FOR WHICH THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE
BRING LIGHT RAIN INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF
TENDS TO FOCUS MORE ON THE APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST BY
MIDWEEK AND DIGS THAT FEATURE. THERE ARE SOME SIMILARITIES
WITH THE EC/GFS BOTH DIGGING A CUT OFF TYPE LOW IN THE REGION BUT
THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES FROM THAT POINT ON. 12Z EC IS NOW HOLDING
THE LOW BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OF NEBRASKA...WHICH MAY KEEP THE
BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS KANSAS. AND THE CANADIAN MODEL JUST SLIPS
AN OPEN WAVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH VERY LITTLE ISSUE. POINT
IS...THERE IS SOME RAIN CHANCE...BUT LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2015
THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK WILL CENTER AROUND THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOW CLOUDS WORKING UP INTO OUR TAF SITES AS WE NEAR DAWN. SOME OF
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT MVFR OR EVEN IFR CEILINGS AROUND
DAWN...BUT BASED ON WHERE THE STRATUS IS NOW AM NOT VERY CONFIDENT
THAT WE WILL SEE THOSE LOWER CEILINGS. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE
TO CARRY VFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING...BUT WE MAY NEED TO UPDATE TO
DECREASE CEILING HEIGHTS DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH THAT KANSAS
CLOUD DECK CAN MAKE IT. THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE WIND WILL BRIEFLY PICK UP OUT OF
THE NORTH NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND
SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSSI
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...MORITZ
AVIATION...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1148 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH TONIGHT AND
SUN...MOSTLY OVER THE MN SIDE OF THE RED RIVER. PRECIPITABLE WATER
RISES TO AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH BY 12Z SUN. MAY PRODUCE
SOME LOWER CLOUDS..THOUGH MOSTLY VFR CATEGORY...OVER THE FAR EASTERN
ZONES SUN. TWEAKED LOW TEMPS DOWN A BIT OVER MAINLY EASTERN ND FOR
TONIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1002 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015
SATELLITE SHOWING MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN WESTERN ND WAS SHIFTING EAST.
TWEAKED LOW TEMPS DOWN A BIT OVER PARTS OF EASTERN ND AS TEMPS WERE
FALLING AT A GOOD CLIP THIS EVENING. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015
WILL CHECK OVER DIURNAL CURVE AND PROBABLY SLOW DOWN HOURLY TEMPS
FALLS FOR TONIGHT. ALSO WILL TWEAK WINDS. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES
AT THIS UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR SHORT TERM WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOWS AND
POTENTIAL FOR SOME WEAK CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTN. FOR IMMEDIATE
SHORT TERM...HI RES MODELS HAVE DONE DECENT JOB HANDLING TODAYS
HOURLY TEMPS...WITH 8 AM RUC RUN VERIFYING FAIRLY WELL WITH 3 PM
OBSERVED TEMPS. HOWEVER...THIS HAS ONLY BEEN THE CASE IN REGIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY WHERE DAYTIME MIXING HAS BEEN THE
HIGHEST. THEREFORE USING RUC AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPS THROUGH
03Z...BUT NEEDING TO COOL OFF THE FAR EAST AND WEST WHERE WINDS
ARE SLIGHTLY LESS. USED A FCST BLENDS FOR LOW POPS TOMORROW AFTN.
TONIGHT...A SIGNIFICANT LLJ WILL DEVELOP...WITH H850 WINDS AROUND
50 KTS OVER N CNTRL MN BY 03Z. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP WELL INTO
THE EVENING FOR THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES...AND
USING RUC HOURLY TEMPS FOR THESE REGIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
SOUTHERN VALLEY MAY STAY IN THE MID 50S WITH SOME MIXING
CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. TOUGHER AREA TO FCST WILL BE
SOUTHEAST WHERE DAYTIME HIGHS WERE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER HOWEVER
THE AXIS OF THE LLJ WILL SHIFT OVER THAT AREA...WHEN THE LLJ
STRENGTHENS...IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALSO POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHOWERS/CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE EAST TOWARD MORNING.
MEANWHILE BY EARLY MORNING WE WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN SKY IN THE
NORTHWEST AS MID CLOUDS NOW OVER MT ADVECT EAST...WITH SOME SHRA
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT IN CNTRL ND.
TOMORROW...WILL SEE MORE SHRA AND POSSIBLY TSRA DEVELOP OVER N
CNTRL MN BUT THE BEST THREAT FOR ANY HELPFUL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE EAST OF THE CWA. APPROACHING FROM FROM THE WEST MAY PRODUCE
SOME RAINFALL SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 2...WITH SOME
COOLER TEMPS ADVECTING IN DURING THE DAY. MAX TEMPS IN THE VALLEY
AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN MN MAY OCCUR IN THE EARLY AFTN AND REMAIN
STEADY OF FALL SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTN. COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS ENTIRE CWA BY 00Z MON.
TOMORROW NIGHT...COOLER AIRMASS WILL BRING OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN
INTO THE 30S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR ZERO IN THE FAR NORTHWEST
AND AROUND LAKE OF THE WOODS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015
MONDAY WILL BE DRY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND 60. BREEZY WESTERLY
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT...WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF WARM
WEATHER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN
HOW MUCH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE WILL GET DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
FRONTS MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NRN TIER OF
THE U.S. 12Z ECMWF IS VERY MUCH SPLIT FLOW AND KEEPS THE SRN STREAM
MOISTURE WELL TO OUR SOUTH UNTIL SYSTEM MOVES TO OUR EAST OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. 12Z GFS/GEM REMAINS A BIT WETTER WITH FRONT
MOVING THROUGH WED AFTN-EVE. WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC POPS FOR
SHOWERS. NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE EAST WILL COME LATE SATURDAY...WHICH
WILL THE SAME MOISTURE ISSUES THAN THE MID WEEK ONE WILL HAVE. LOOK
FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE AREA...BUT STILL 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015
FOG LOOP AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WERE MOVING INTO
EASTERN ND. SCT CIRRUS WAS OVER NORTHWEST MN. EXPECT MOSTLY MID
LEVEL CLOUD WITH CIGS AROUND 10 TO 12 THOUSAND FT TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WIND SHIFT AND COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUN. EXPECT MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT AND SUN.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOW RH WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH ON SUNDAY...WITH WINDS
BECOMING GUSTY FROM THE WEST IN ITS WAKE. WHILE TEMPS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT COOLER ON SUNDAY...DEEP MIXING WILL RESULT IN LOW RH
VALUES...LOWEST WEST OF THE VALLEY. NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER SE ND...BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD AND
TEMP TRENDS. RH MAY BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER FARTHER EAST WHERE THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR LATER. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE START OF THE WEEK...WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS AND VERY
DRY AIR (RH NEAR OR UNDER 20 PERCENT) POSSIBLY LEADING TO CRITICAL
CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY. TUESDAY MAY BE ANOTHER CRITICAL OR NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER
AVIATION...HOPPES
FIRE WEATHER...MAKOWSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
359 AM MDT SUN APR 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO AND OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
SPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE BORDERLAND TODAY AND
MONDAY. THE LOW MOVES OUT LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD END THE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THOUGH
MOSTLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES MOST OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE
QUITE COOL. DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH VERY
FEW CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW NOT WELL DEFINED YET AS A CIRCULATION BUT LIKELY OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO ENTRAIN SUB
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO IT AND AND PRODUCED A LARGE THICK CLOUD
SHIELD OVER THE CWA. RADAR IS SHOWING A FEW WEAK TO MODERATE SHOWERS
MOVING INTO EL PASO AND DONA ANA COUNTIES. HRRR SHOWING SOME
ISOLATED CELLS TIL ABOUT 12Z ALONG THE SOUTHERN CWA THEN MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN STARTING AROUND 13Z OVER THE BOOTHEEL AND THEN TO
ALL THE SOUTHERN ZONES BY AROUND 18Z. RAIN SPREADING TO REST OF AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH BEST RAINFALL MAY REMAIN FROM ABOUT LAS
CRUCES SOUTH. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE MONDAY THOUGH MAY FAVOR THE
EAST HALF OF THE CWA MORE AS UPPER LOW MOVES JUST EAST OF THE AREA.
AIRMASS WEAKLY UNSTABLE BUT WILL STILL KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDER IN
THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND EASTERLY SURGE ON MONDAY.
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT...BUT MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW RESIDUAL MOISTURE PERSISTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCES AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE A FEW SHOWERS
BUT MOSTLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THURSDAY LOOKS INTERESTING AS PAC
NORTHWEST UPPER LOW DROPS DOWN TO FAR WESTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL
INITIALLY ALLOW SCOURING OUT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GFS SHOWS STRONG
DRYLINE TO THE RIO GRANDE THURSDAY MORNING AND EAST OF THE CWA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY FREE OF PRECIP
THOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH DRYLINE BOUNDARY FOR BRIEF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK
TO CLOSE TO NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT UPPER LOW WILL DRAG
SIDE DOOR FRONT DOWN THURSDAY TO COOL BACK DOWN. SNOW LEVELS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD COULD DROP AS LOW AS 8000 FT WEDNESDAY AND PERHAPS AS
LOW AS 7500 FT THURSDAY...SO MODEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
AT THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.
UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY BRINGS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO AREA FRIDAY BUT
LOW LEVELS ONLY MOISTEN UP SLIGHTLY. WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN FOR THE
SACS...BEING AS THEY ARE CLOSEST TO THE UPPER LOW AND MOISTURE. LOW
FINALLY MOVES OFF FRIDAY NIGHT AND DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
MOVE IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 12/12Z-13/12Z...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL RESULT IN LOWERING CEILINGS
THRU THE TAF PERIOD ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE
WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF EXCURSIONS INTO MVFR CONDITIONS WITH HEAVIER
SHOWERS. INITIALLY EXPECT VCSH SCT050 BKN-OVC100 WITH BKN-OVC050
DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z. WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THRU THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS OCCASIONALLY
EXCEEDING 12 KNOTS ALONG WITH 5SM ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY AND WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES FOR
WETTING PRECIPITATION WITH OCCASIONAL THUNDER POSSIBLE. WHILE 20 FT
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...COOLER
TEMPS AND HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED MIN RH VALUES.
AS A RESULT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
REGION FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. AN INCREASE IN
WINDS AND TEMPS COULD CAUSE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BRIEFLY FOR
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL WETTING PRECIP AND COOLER
TEMPS BEHIND A PASSING FRONT WILL ALLEVIATE ANY CONCERNS FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 67 51 65 49 74 / 50 60 40 20 0
SIERRA BLANCA 65 50 58 48 70 / 50 60 40 30 0
LAS CRUCES 66 50 63 47 73 / 40 50 20 10 0
ALAMOGORDO 70 51 62 46 71 / 40 80 50 30 0
CLOUDCROFT 50 39 45 35 53 / 40 90 70 40 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 67 51 62 45 72 / 20 40 30 10 0
SILVER CITY 56 45 53 43 70 / 30 40 20 20 0
DEMING 65 49 65 46 74 / 40 40 20 10 0
LORDSBURG 64 47 66 45 75 / 40 30 20 10 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 67 53 64 52 74 / 50 50 40 20 0
DELL CITY 67 46 61 45 72 / 40 60 50 30 0
FORT HANCOCK 69 48 64 48 74 / 50 60 40 20 0
LOMA LINDA 59 50 55 48 70 / 50 60 40 30 0
FABENS 68 47 64 47 74 / 50 60 40 20 0
SANTA TERESA 67 50 63 48 74 / 50 50 20 20 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 66 55 62 50 72 / 30 60 40 20 0
JORNADA RANGE 67 49 63 42 73 / 30 50 30 20 0
HATCH 66 49 65 45 74 / 30 50 20 10 0
COLUMBUS 64 52 64 49 73 / 40 40 20 20 0
OROGRANDE 67 53 60 48 71 / 40 60 40 30 0
MAYHILL 59 44 49 39 61 / 40 80 70 40 10
MESCALERO 58 43 50 38 61 / 40 90 70 40 10
TIMBERON 57 43 50 40 61 / 50 70 60 40 10
WINSTON 58 43 57 36 69 / 20 40 20 20 10
HILLSBORO 61 46 59 43 73 / 30 40 20 20 0
SPACEPORT 68 47 63 42 73 / 30 50 30 10 0
LAKE ROBERTS 56 39 57 41 69 / 40 40 30 20 10
HURLEY 57 45 56 43 70 / 40 40 20 20 0
CLIFF 64 43 62 43 71 / 30 40 20 20 0
MULE CREEK 60 41 60 40 70 / 30 40 20 20 0
FAYWOOD 58 46 58 44 71 / 30 40 20 20 0
ANIMAS 63 49 67 47 75 / 50 30 20 10 0
HACHITA 64 48 66 45 74 / 50 30 20 10 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 61 48 64 46 74 / 60 30 20 10 0
CLOVERDALE 55 45 60 45 74 / 50 30 20 10 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
17 HEFNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
418 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
The main concern through the next 24 hours is the potential for
showers and thunderstorms as an upper level low approaches from
the west. An upper level low is currently centered across northern
Baja California and is forecast to approach far West Texas this
evening. PoPs for today were reduced across much of the area, as
most of the upper level lift associated with the low will not
overspread the area until late this afternoon and overnight.
Still, isolated to scattered showers will be possible this
afternoon, mainly across the southern and western parts of the
forecast area. Highs today will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Overnight, the chance of showers and thunderstorms will increase
as the upper level approaches and upper level lift overspreads
West Central Texas. Some uncertainty remains on the extent of
precipitation overnight, with some indications that parts of the
area may get dry slotted, mainly across the northern Edwards
Plateau and possibly parts of the Concho Valley. PoPs were lowered
slightly, ranging from chance across the northern Edwards Plateau
and Concho Valley, to likely across the northern Big Country and
northwest Hill Country. Latest runs of the HRRR are optimistic in
a large area of showers and thunderstorms approaching our western
counties by late afternoon/early evening, but am reluctant to go
too high on PoPs at this time. The main threat with the convection
looks to be locally heavy rainfall and dangerous cloud to ground
lightning. Rain chances will quickly decrease from southwest to
northeast during the early morning hours Monday. Overnight lows
will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Forecast challenges will be rain chances mainly Monday/Monday
night, and then again later in the week.
By Monday, the upper low over the Baja Peninsula this morning will
be moving into the southeastern NM/west Texas area. At the same
time, and cold front will be moving south through the Texas
Panhandle and western Oklahoma. The combination of these two
synoptic features will result in showers and thunderstorms
developing mainly along and ahead of the cold front Monday.
Showers and thunderstorms are most likely along and north of a
Sterling City to Brownwood line in the vicinity of the cold front.
Exactly where the cold front progresses to by Monday afternoon is
still in question however. So, with the front in the area,
increasing deep layer shear, and moderate instability in place
along/ahead of the cold front, it isn`t out of the question that
some of the thunderstorms that do develop could strengthen to
severe levels Monday afternoon and evening, especially along the
cold front. Severe weather hazards would be limited mainly to
large hail and damaging winds if it occurs. PoP values go from
`likely` (60%) in the Big Country, to slight chance and chance
(20-30%) along the I-10 corridor, based on the cold front stalling
near the Sterling City/Brownwood line in the afternoon. Rain
chances continue into the evening hours, mainly for the northern
half of the CWA, with decreasing rain chances Tuesday as the upper
level low moves off to the northeast away from the area.
Southwest flow returns Tuesday night into Wednesday with generally
dry weather across the area.
The next chance for rain begins Wednesday night into Thursday as
another low drops south through the Rocky Mountains into the four
corners region, then turns east, and moves across the Texas
panhandle region into the southern plains. Have kept a slight
chance to chance in the forecast from Wednesday night through
Thursday night for this feature. However, with very dry air aloft
rotating to the east around the south side of the upper level low,
there is some concern that the best precipitation chances would be
pushed to the east of our area.
Have kept the generally dry forecast going for the area from
Friday into Saturday. However, the latest run of the ECMWF is now
stalling the upper level low near the four corners region through
this time period resulting in additional rain chances. Will have
to keep an eye on model trends concerning this change, and update
the forecast as needed.
20
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 81 59 75 55 72 / 20 50 60 50 20
San Angelo 80 58 79 55 75 / 40 50 40 20 10
Junction 80 60 79 56 78 / 40 60 30 20 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND
245 AM PDT SUN APR 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...STILL A FEW SHOWERS AROUND REGION TODAY...BUT OVERALL A
DRY PLEASANT DAY. NEXT FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON MON...WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS IN THE MORNING...AND RAIN SPREADING ACROSS REGION IN
AFTERNOON. COOL AND SHOWERY ON TUE...THEN HIGH PRES BUILDS BRINGING
MILD DRY WEATHER FOR WED THROUGH FRI.
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE PAC NW...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
PUSHING ONSHORE OVER WRN WASHINGTON AND FAR NW OREGON. WEAK HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY...WITH SHOWERS THREAT DECREASING AS
DAY PROGRESSES. BEST THREAT FOR A SHOWER WILL BE OVER WRN WASHINGTON.
DRY TONIGHT UNDER WEAK HIGH PRES.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MON AM AS NEXT FRONT FAST APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. ALL MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF RAIN. LOOKS
LIKE RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST BY MID TO LATE MON AM... AND
RAIN SPREADING FURTHER INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. FRONT SHOULD PUSH
ONSHORE LATE MON AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...THEN TO CASCADES BY
LATE MON EVENING. DECENT SHOT OF RAINFALL...BUT SINCE FRONT MOVING
FAIRLY QUICKLY MOST AREAS WILL GET 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF RAIN WITH BIT
HEAVIER RAINFALL IN COAST RANGE AND CASCADES.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO JUST BELOW PASSES MON NIGHT. BUT
UNFORTUNATELY...WILL BE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION BY THEN. STILL... WITH
CURRENT RAINFALL FORECASTS AND EXPECTED SNOW LEVELS... PROBABLY ONLY
GET 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE CASCADES FOR MON NIGHT...AND ANOTHER
1 TO 3 INCHES ON TUE WITH DECREASING SHOWERS. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
ADVISORIES FOR SNOW AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...500 MB RIDGING RETURNS
WEDNESDAY...BUT ITS STRENGTH WILL BE IN QUESTION. THE 12Z ECMWF AND
GFS ARE QUITE SIMILAR...WITH THE 570 DM HEIGHT CONTOUR ALONG THE
COLUMBIA RIVER. BOTH MODELS SHOW SOME WARM-FRONTAL OVER-RUNNING
PRECIP CLOSE TO THE SW WA ZONES WED...BUT DID NOT MENTION ANY PRECIP
FOR THE CWA. MODEL DIFFERENCES START TO BECOME MORE APPARENT THU. THE
GFS HAS A WEAK SHORT-WAVE APPROACHING THE COAST THU AFTERNOON... WITH
STRENGTHENING ON-SHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. GFS ACTUALLY BRINGS THE .01
PRECIP CONTOUR TO THE FAR N OREGON COAST. THE ECMWF HAS A STRONGER
RIDGE...BUT OPTED TO LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE SW WA ZONES FOR
NOW. FRI AND SAT ARE MORE MUDDLED. GFS BRINGS THE SHORT-WAVE THROUGH
FRI MORNING...MORE INDICATIVE OF A STRONG MARINE SURGE. THE ECMWF
HOLDS ON TO ITS RIDGE MUCH OF FRI THEN FORMING A CLOSED 500 MB LOW
OFF THE S OREGON COAST 00Z SAT. HAVE LEANED TOWARD A DRY FORECAST
FRI-SAT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN GENERAL DETAILS REMAINS ON THE LOW END.
WEISHAAR
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY THOUGH
THERE MAY BE A FEW HOURS OF PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS THIS
MORNING ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF KSLE WHERE THE MOST CLEARING AND
SURFACE RIDGE HAS DEVELOPED. A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING NORTH OF KSLE
WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST
LATE TONIGHT.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SCT-BKN MID CLOUD DECK AND LIGHT NEAR-SURFACE WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS HAVE SLOWLY EASED OVER THE WATERS OVERNIGHT...BUT
SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT ASSOCIATED WITH SOME
LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL BEGIN LATE SUN
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT
WILL CROSS THE WATERS. CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECISE THE DURATION AND
TIMING OF STRONGEST WINDS REMAINS A BIT LOWER THAN NORMAL DUE TO
SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG FORECAST MODELS...BUT EXPECT
PEAK GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.
A WEST SWELL IN THE 10 TO 12 FT RANGE WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
SHOULD BE JUST UNDER 10 FT LATE THIS EVENING...THEN BACK UP TO
NEAR 11 FT MONDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SWELL MAY ARRIVE BY THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS BUILDING IN THE 10 TO 15 FT
RANGE THU. MODELS INDICATING A FAIRLY LONG PERIOD OF 18 TO 20
SECONDS ON THU.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TODAY THROUGH
THIS EVENING ON ALL COASTAL WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITIONS
FOR TODAY.
&&
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
228 AM PDT SUN APR 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A few lingering mountain snow showers today will give way to a
quiet and mild day on Monday. A cold front will pass through the
area Monday night bringing a return to unsettled weather including
breezy conditions and scattered showers. Wednesday and Thursday
will be dry and increasingly mild. Another weak cold front is
possible on or about Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight...Flat progressive zonal flow with a somewhat
conditionally airmass remaining in place for today leaves minor
pops along the east and west edges of the forecast area and a
break in both precipitation and clouds in between courtesy of the
zonal westerly flow downsloping off the Cascades. Weak ridging
occurs tonight allowing for further drying and lowering of pops
along the edges. Cloud cover will remain rather cluttered as both
the zonal flow and the weak ridging is not enough to push the
moisture streaming through it too far away from the area. Forecast
temperatures remain slightly on the cool side of what would be
considered normal for this time of year but are slightly warmer in
comparison to those reached yesterday and last night. /Pelatti
Monday through Saturday...Good model agreement exists between the
latest GFS and EC models through Thursday. Confidence is high of a
dry and mild day on Monday...followed by another showery and windy
cold front passage Monday night and Tuesday.
This system will be the main impact issue through the rest of the
week. Models are settling on a timing solution featuring
widespread rain showers over the eastern half of the forecast area
overnight Monday as the main front pushes through. Strong
downslope off the Cascades will probably lead to an essentially
dry but windy frontal passage over the western zones. Post
frontal cooling by Tuesday morning will change residual showers
into snow showers down to valley floors in the morning and through
the day over the high terrain of the idaho Panhandle. Little or no
valley/basin accumulation is expected but the mountains of Idaho
could pick up 2 to 4 inches above 400 feet and may affect travel
across Lookout Pass with slippery conditions.
Winds will be the main issue across the basin. The gradient and
gust potential from mixing suggest solidly breezy to windy
conditions but sub-advisory criteria...much like yesterday`s
conditions. Temperatures on Tuesday will also ratchet back to
below normal in this showery and cooler air mass.
For the rest of the week things look pretty benign with decreasing
winds and a weak ridge aloft for Wednesday and Thursday as
temperatures climb back to normal or slightly above.
Friday presents the lowest confidence model dilemma...with the GFS
insisting for multiple runs on another weaker cold front
passage...this one with only marginal shower and slightly
increased wind potential...while the ECMWF features the parent wave
energy missing the area entirely by forming a split offshore and
keeping the forecast area dry and benign. The GFS is more
consistent and thus will bet on a weak frontla passage on or about
Friday...followed by another benign break period on Saturday.
/Fugazzi
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Lingering showers will continue over the Cascade crest
and over the higher terrain in the ID Panhandle. This will result
in mountain obscurations through tonight. Low stratus is expected
to form over the Palouse after 10Z and linger through the early
morning hours on Sunday. This will result in MVFR cigs at KPUW
with moderate confidence in the forecast. Southwest boundary layer
winds may advect this low level moisture toward the Spokane/Coeur
d`Alene corridor with MVFR cigs possible at KGEG, KSFF and KCOE,
but confidence is not as high as at KPUW. Winds will steadily
decrease through tonight into Sunday as pressure gradients weaken.
/SVH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 49 34 62 38 48 32 / 10 0 0 60 50 10
Coeur d`Alene 49 31 64 38 48 31 / 10 0 10 80 60 20
Pullman 49 33 64 38 46 31 / 10 0 10 80 60 30
Lewiston 56 35 73 44 54 36 / 10 0 10 80 50 40
Colville 52 31 63 39 52 31 / 10 0 10 60 50 10
Sandpoint 48 28 62 37 48 30 / 10 0 10 80 70 20
Kellogg 45 31 63 37 43 29 / 30 0 10 90 80 30
Moses Lake 56 34 64 39 55 34 / 0 0 0 10 10 10
Wenatchee 56 37 62 43 54 36 / 0 0 10 10 10 10
Omak 54 31 63 37 55 30 / 10 0 10 20 20 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
228 AM PDT SUN APR 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A few lingering mountain snow showers today will give way to a
quiet and mild day on Monday. A cold front will pass through the
area Monday night bringing a return to unsettled weather including
breezy conditions and scattered showers. Wednesday and Thursday
will be dry and increasingly mild. Another weak cold front is
possible on or about Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight...Flat progressive zonal flow with a somewhat
conditionally airmass remaining in place for today leaves minor
pops along the east and west edges of the forecast area and a
break in both precipitation and clouds in between courtesy of the
zonal westerly flow downsloping off the Cascades. Weak ridging
occurs tonight allowing for further drying and lowering of pops
along the edges. Cloud cover will remain rather cluttered as both
the zonal flow and the weak ridging is not enough to push the
moisture streaming through it too far away from the area. Forecast
temperatures remain slightly on the cool side of what would be
considered normal for this time of year but are slightly warmer in
comparison to those reached yesterday and last night. /Pelatti
Monday through Saturday...Good model agreement exists between the
latest GFS and EC models through Thursday. Confidence is high of a
dry and mild day on Monday...followed by another showery and windy
cold front passage Monday night and Tuesday.
This system will be the main impact issue through the rest of the
week. Models are settling on a timing solution featuring
widespread rain showers over the eastern half of the forecast area
overnight Monday as the main front pushes through. Strong
downslope off the Cascades will probably lead to an essentially
dry but windy frontal passage over the western zones. Post
frontal cooling by Tuesday morning will change residual showers
into snow showers down to valley floors in the morning and through
the day over the high terrain of the idaho Panhandle. Little or no
valley/basin accumulation is expected but the mountains of Idaho
could pick up 2 to 4 inches above 400 feet and may affect travel
across Lookout Pass with slippery conditions.
Winds will be the main issue across the basin. The gradient and
gust potential from mixing suggest solidly breezy to windy
conditions but sub-advisory criteria...much like yesterday`s
conditions. Temperatures on Tuesday will also ratchet back to
below normal in this showery and cooler air mass.
For the rest of the week things look pretty benign with decreasing
winds and a weak ridge aloft for Wednesday and Thursday as
temperatures climb back to normal or slightly above.
Friday presents the lowest confidence model dilemma...with the GFS
insisting for multiple runs on another weaker cold front
passage...this one with only marginal shower and slightly
increased wind potential...while the ECMWF features the parent wave
energy missing the area entirely by forming a split offshore and
keeping the forecast area dry and benign. The GFS is more
consistent and thus will bet on a weak frontla passage on or about
Friday...followed by another benign break period on Saturday.
/Fugazzi
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Lingering showers will continue over the Cascade crest
and over the higher terrain in the ID Panhandle. This will result
in mountain obscurations through tonight. Low stratus is expected
to form over the Palouse after 10Z and linger through the early
morning hours on Sunday. This will result in MVFR cigs at KPUW
with moderate confidence in the forecast. Southwest boundary layer
winds may advect this low level moisture toward the Spokane/Coeur
d`Alene corridor with MVFR cigs possible at KGEG, KSFF and KCOE,
but confidence is not as high as at KPUW. Winds will steadily
decrease through tonight into Sunday as pressure gradients weaken.
/SVH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 49 34 62 38 48 32 / 10 0 0 60 50 10
Coeur d`Alene 49 31 64 38 48 31 / 10 0 10 80 60 20
Pullman 49 33 64 38 46 31 / 10 0 10 80 60 30
Lewiston 56 35 73 44 54 36 / 10 0 10 80 50 40
Colville 52 31 63 39 52 31 / 10 0 10 60 50 10
Sandpoint 48 28 62 37 48 30 / 10 0 10 80 70 20
Kellogg 45 31 63 37 43 29 / 30 0 10 90 80 30
Moses Lake 56 34 64 39 55 34 / 0 0 0 10 10 10
Wenatchee 56 37 62 43 54 36 / 0 0 10 10 10 10
Omak 54 31 63 37 55 30 / 10 0 10 20 20 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
228 AM PDT SUN APR 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A few lingering mountain snow showers today will give way to a
quiet and mild day on Monday. A cold front will pass through the
area Monday night bringing a return to unsettled weather including
breezy conditions and scattered showers. Wednesday and Thursday
will be dry and increasingly mild. Another weak cold front is
possible on or about Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight...Flat progressive zonal flow with a somewhat
conditionally airmass remaining in place for today leaves minor
pops along the east and west edges of the forecast area and a
break in both precipitation and clouds in between courtesy of the
zonal westerly flow downsloping off the Cascades. Weak ridging
occurs tonight allowing for further drying and lowering of pops
along the edges. Cloud cover will remain rather cluttered as both
the zonal flow and the weak ridging is not enough to push the
moisture streaming through it too far away from the area. Forecast
temperatures remain slightly on the cool side of what would be
considered normal for this time of year but are slightly warmer in
comparison to those reached yesterday and last night. /Pelatti
Monday through Saturday...Good model agreement exists between the
latest GFS and EC models through Thursday. Confidence is high of a
dry and mild day on Monday...followed by another showery and windy
cold front passage Monday night and Tuesday.
This system will be the main impact issue through the rest of the
week. Models are settling on a timing solution featuring
widespread rain showers over the eastern half of the forecast area
overnight Monday as the main front pushes through. Strong
downslope off the Cascades will probably lead to an essentially
dry but windy frontal passage over the western zones. Post
frontal cooling by Tuesday morning will change residual showers
into snow showers down to valley floors in the morning and through
the day over the high terrain of the idaho Panhandle. Little or no
valley/basin accumulation is expected but the mountains of Idaho
could pick up 2 to 4 inches above 400 feet and may affect travel
across Lookout Pass with slippery conditions.
Winds will be the main issue across the basin. The gradient and
gust potential from mixing suggest solidly breezy to windy
conditions but sub-advisory criteria...much like yesterday`s
conditions. Temperatures on Tuesday will also ratchet back to
below normal in this showery and cooler air mass.
For the rest of the week things look pretty benign with decreasing
winds and a weak ridge aloft for Wednesday and Thursday as
temperatures climb back to normal or slightly above.
Friday presents the lowest confidence model dilemma...with the GFS
insisting for multiple runs on another weaker cold front
passage...this one with only marginal shower and slightly
increased wind potential...while the ECMWF features the parent wave
energy missing the area entirely by forming a split offshore and
keeping the forecast area dry and benign. The GFS is more
consistent and thus will bet on a weak frontla passage on or about
Friday...followed by another benign break period on Saturday.
/Fugazzi
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Lingering showers will continue over the Cascade crest
and over the higher terrain in the ID Panhandle. This will result
in mountain obscurations through tonight. Low stratus is expected
to form over the Palouse after 10Z and linger through the early
morning hours on Sunday. This will result in MVFR cigs at KPUW
with moderate confidence in the forecast. Southwest boundary layer
winds may advect this low level moisture toward the Spokane/Coeur
d`Alene corridor with MVFR cigs possible at KGEG, KSFF and KCOE,
but confidence is not as high as at KPUW. Winds will steadily
decrease through tonight into Sunday as pressure gradients weaken.
/SVH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 49 34 62 38 48 32 / 10 0 0 60 50 10
Coeur d`Alene 49 31 64 38 48 31 / 10 0 10 80 60 20
Pullman 49 33 64 38 46 31 / 10 0 10 80 60 30
Lewiston 56 35 73 44 54 36 / 10 0 10 80 50 40
Colville 52 31 63 39 52 31 / 10 0 10 60 50 10
Sandpoint 48 28 62 37 48 30 / 10 0 10 80 70 20
Kellogg 45 31 63 37 43 29 / 30 0 10 90 80 30
Moses Lake 56 34 64 39 55 34 / 0 0 0 10 10 10
Wenatchee 56 37 62 43 54 36 / 0 0 10 10 10 10
Omak 54 31 63 37 55 30 / 10 0 10 20 20 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
228 AM PDT SUN APR 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A few lingering mountain snow showers today will give way to a
quiet and mild day on Monday. A cold front will pass through the
area Monday night bringing a return to unsettled weather including
breezy conditions and scattered showers. Wednesday and Thursday
will be dry and increasingly mild. Another weak cold front is
possible on or about Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight...Flat progressive zonal flow with a somewhat
conditionally airmass remaining in place for today leaves minor
pops along the east and west edges of the forecast area and a
break in both precipitation and clouds in between courtesy of the
zonal westerly flow downsloping off the Cascades. Weak ridging
occurs tonight allowing for further drying and lowering of pops
along the edges. Cloud cover will remain rather cluttered as both
the zonal flow and the weak ridging is not enough to push the
moisture streaming through it too far away from the area. Forecast
temperatures remain slightly on the cool side of what would be
considered normal for this time of year but are slightly warmer in
comparison to those reached yesterday and last night. /Pelatti
Monday through Saturday...Good model agreement exists between the
latest GFS and EC models through Thursday. Confidence is high of a
dry and mild day on Monday...followed by another showery and windy
cold front passage Monday night and Tuesday.
This system will be the main impact issue through the rest of the
week. Models are settling on a timing solution featuring
widespread rain showers over the eastern half of the forecast area
overnight Monday as the main front pushes through. Strong
downslope off the Cascades will probably lead to an essentially
dry but windy frontal passage over the western zones. Post
frontal cooling by Tuesday morning will change residual showers
into snow showers down to valley floors in the morning and through
the day over the high terrain of the idaho Panhandle. Little or no
valley/basin accumulation is expected but the mountains of Idaho
could pick up 2 to 4 inches above 400 feet and may affect travel
across Lookout Pass with slippery conditions.
Winds will be the main issue across the basin. The gradient and
gust potential from mixing suggest solidly breezy to windy
conditions but sub-advisory criteria...much like yesterday`s
conditions. Temperatures on Tuesday will also ratchet back to
below normal in this showery and cooler air mass.
For the rest of the week things look pretty benign with decreasing
winds and a weak ridge aloft for Wednesday and Thursday as
temperatures climb back to normal or slightly above.
Friday presents the lowest confidence model dilemma...with the GFS
insisting for multiple runs on another weaker cold front
passage...this one with only marginal shower and slightly
increased wind potential...while the ECMWF features the parent wave
energy missing the area entirely by forming a split offshore and
keeping the forecast area dry and benign. The GFS is more
consistent and thus will bet on a weak frontla passage on or about
Friday...followed by another benign break period on Saturday.
/Fugazzi
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Lingering showers will continue over the Cascade crest
and over the higher terrain in the ID Panhandle. This will result
in mountain obscurations through tonight. Low stratus is expected
to form over the Palouse after 10Z and linger through the early
morning hours on Sunday. This will result in MVFR cigs at KPUW
with moderate confidence in the forecast. Southwest boundary layer
winds may advect this low level moisture toward the Spokane/Coeur
d`Alene corridor with MVFR cigs possible at KGEG, KSFF and KCOE,
but confidence is not as high as at KPUW. Winds will steadily
decrease through tonight into Sunday as pressure gradients weaken.
/SVH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 49 34 62 38 48 32 / 10 0 0 60 50 10
Coeur d`Alene 49 31 64 38 48 31 / 10 0 10 80 60 20
Pullman 49 33 64 38 46 31 / 10 0 10 80 60 30
Lewiston 56 35 73 44 54 36 / 10 0 10 80 50 40
Colville 52 31 63 39 52 31 / 10 0 10 60 50 10
Sandpoint 48 28 62 37 48 30 / 10 0 10 80 70 20
Kellogg 45 31 63 37 43 29 / 30 0 10 90 80 30
Moses Lake 56 34 64 39 55 34 / 0 0 0 10 10 10
Wenatchee 56 37 62 43 54 36 / 0 0 10 10 10 10
Omak 54 31 63 37 55 30 / 10 0 10 20 20 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1049 PM PDT SAT APR 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front has moved through the region leaving unsettled
weather this afternoon. Widespread showers accompanied by breezy
conditions will give way to a ridge of high pressure Sunday.
Another front will approach the area Monday night bringing a
return to unsettled weather including breezy conditions and
scattered afternoon/evening showers.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Early evening update to remove thunderstorms and to increase snow
amounts over Stevens Pass. Chances for precip were also increased
a little bit in the lower portion of the Upper Columbia Basin and
into the Palouse where a weak convergence zone is located. Not
enough instability was generated this afternoon to see much in the
way of any thunderstorm activity. There were a few lightning
strikes just north of the border of the Northern Panhandle, but
chances of seeing any thunderstorms this evening anywhere across
the Inland Northwest is minimal.
The focus for this evening will turn to the Cascade crest where a
Puget Sound Convergence zone has set up over Stevens Pass. Latest
web cams at 600 PM show snow accumulating over the pass. It looks
as if the snow accumulated rather rapidly, which is characteristic
of these convergence zones. The HRRR model seems to be handling
this rather well and shows this convergence zone strengthening
over the next few hours through at least 900 PM this evening. Any
travelers heading over Stevens Pass this evening should prepare
for heavy snow with rapid changes to visibility. Snowfall rates of
between 1-1.5 inches will easily be possible. The HRRR model does
show this convergence zone weakening by 1000 PM and possibly
shifting a little bit north of Stevens Pass. However, light snow
showers are expected to persist through tonight. We will handle
this situation with NOWCasts for now and provide updates on our
social media pages when possible. Traditional highlights are not
expected at this time as it will be a fairly localized event and
primarily only impact travel over Stevens Pass. /SVH
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Lingering showers will continue over the Cascade crest
and over the higher terrain in the ID Panhandle. This will result
in mountain obscurations through tonight. Low stratus is expected
to form over the Palouse after 10Z and linger through the early
morning hours on Sunday. This will result in MVFR cigs at KPUW
with moderate confidence in the forecast. Southwest boundary layer
winds may advect this low level moisture toward the Spokane/Coeur
d`Alene corridor with MVFR cigs possible at KGEG, KSFF and KCOE,
but confidence is not as high as at KPUW. Winds will steadily
decrease through tonight into Sunday as pressure gradients weaken.
/SVH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 32 49 36 62 37 50 / 20 10 0 0 60 50
Coeur d`Alene 31 49 33 64 36 49 / 30 10 0 10 80 60
Pullman 32 49 36 64 36 48 / 40 10 0 10 80 50
Lewiston 35 56 38 70 43 53 / 20 10 0 10 70 50
Colville 31 52 33 61 38 54 / 40 10 0 10 40 50
Sandpoint 32 48 30 60 35 49 / 50 10 0 10 80 70
Kellogg 30 45 33 63 36 44 / 50 30 0 10 90 70
Moses Lake 33 56 36 64 37 56 / 10 0 0 0 10 10
Wenatchee 35 56 40 62 40 54 / 20 0 0 10 10 10
Omak 30 54 33 61 34 55 / 10 10 0 10 20 20
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
444 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS CENTRAL IA EARLY THIS MORNING AND ARE MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST AROUND 25 KTS. LATEST HRRR HAS PICKED UP ON THESE TRENDS
AND WILL FOLLOW ITS SOLUTION FOR THE MORNING HOURS...RESULTING IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST MN AND FAR WESTERN WI. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS NO INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WITH A
FEW REPORTED LIGHTNING STRIKES...WILL ADD ISOLATED THUNDER AS
WELL. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE MINIMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2015
CHALLENGES INCLUDE WIND AND TEMPERATURES TODAY...FOLLOWED BY
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES/TIMING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
12.00Z GLOBAL MODEL SUITE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT WILL FOLLOW
RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE FOR TIMING OF TONIGHT/S CONVECTION.
TODAY WILL BE WARM AND WINDY AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT THAT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE DAY ASSOCIATED WITH A LEADING SHORT-WAVE CURRENTLY
OVER NE/KS. SOME OF ITS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD
CLIP THE SOUTHERNMOST FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON
AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN MO/SOUTHERN IA...BUT THE REST OF
THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. 925 HPA TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND +12
CELSIUS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP LIMIT FULL
WARMING POTENTIAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 70S ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MN AND NORTHEAST IA IF MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS ARE REALIZED.
BIGGER CONCERN TODAY IS STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS. AFTERNOON BOUNDARY
LAYER DEEPENS TO BETWEEN 800 AND 850 HPA WITH ROUGHLY 35 TO 40 KTS
TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 20
TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. COULD SEE BRIEF WIND ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ACROSS WIND PRONE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST
IA...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY.
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND WILL ADVECT MOISTURE NORTHWARD...RESULTING
IN DEW POINT TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 40S AND KEEPING MINIMUM
RH VALUES 40 PERCENT OR HIGHER.
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH I-35 CORRIDOR BY 00Z TONIGHT AND THEN
SWEEP ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. STRONG WARMING IN THE 1-2 KM LAYER THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SQUASH ANY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION...BUT
MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW 200 TO 500 J/KG OF ELEVATED SKINNY CAPE. 0
TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KTS LATER THIS
EVENING...BUT MOST OF THIS IS IN THE LOWEST COUPLE KILOMETERS. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME...BUT COULD STILL SEE
SOME SMALL HAIL COMBINED WITH LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2015
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES QUICKLY INTO NE/IA FOR MONDAY...
KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG
NORTHERN FLANK. AS A RESULT...EXPECT BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND WITH
SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. IN
ADDITION...DRIER AIR MASS WILL ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO DROP
INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE.
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
OCCASIONAL SOUTHERLY BREEZES AS 500 HPA RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS
THE NATION/S MID-SECTION. DAILY HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
LOW PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A COUPLE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT-WAVES MOVE ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HOWEVER...WITH 500 HPA CLOSED LOW NOW
STALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NOT PHASING WITH NORTHERN
SYSTEMS...NOT LOOKING AT ANY PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN. IN FACT...
INSTABILITY HAS ALL BUT DISAPPEARED...SO REMOVED ANY THUNDER
MENTION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. EXPECT A RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS BY THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015
CIGS...
SKC/SCT HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUN...WITH AN
INCREASING MID DECK SAT AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EXPECT THESE TO BE VFR AT THIS TIME.
CIGS SHOULD LOWER INTO THE IFR/MVFR CATEGORIES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
AND STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SUN NIGHT - PER RH FIELDS AND
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.
WINDS...
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. DIRECTION WILL BE SOUTHERLY UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH NEAR 06Z MON. EXPECT SUSTAINED 20KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT
KRST SUNDAY.
LLWS LOOKS LIKE AN ISSUE FOR BOTH TAF SITES...WITH BUFKIT
HRRR/RAP/NAM12 SOUNDINGS ALL SUGGESTING 45-50 KTS JUST SUB 2 KFT
OVERNIGHT-EARLY SUN MORNING. TIMING APPROX 08-15Z.
WX/VSBY...
A FEW -SHRA/TS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUN AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE SPINS NORTHEAST ACROSS IA AND INTO SOUTHERN WI. HOWEVER...
FORECAST TRACKS WOULD KEEP THE PCPN POTENTIAL SOUTH OF THE TAF
SITES...AND WILL KEEP TAFS DRY FOR THAT PERIOD AS A RESULT.
THAT SAID...AREAS OF SHRA/TS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS KRST/KLSE SUNDAY
EVENING-NIGHT...AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. MORE -SHRA...BUT
ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR SOME THUNDER CHANCES.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
945 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR AREA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS OUR AREA
TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER OUR REGION AND WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SPRAWLING AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR REGION THIS
MORNING, WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THIS AFTERNOON. AS
THIS OCCURS, THE LIGHT FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE
REGION. THE 12Z STERLING, VA RAOB SHOWS A RATHER DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE. THERE WAS A STRONG BUT SHALLOW INVERSION ALSO NOTED, HOWEVER
THIS HAS PRETTY MUCH QUICKLY ERODED AND THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
HAVE REALLY JUMPED SO FAR THIS MORNING.
WHILE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED, THERE IS A SHORT WAVE ALONG
WITH SOME WAA ONGOING IN THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS ALONG
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL JET IS ASSISTING IN SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME OF THIS MAY ARRIVE IN OUR REGION AS WE GO
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE DRY AIRMASS AND AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. GIVEN THE LIGHTER FLOW THOUGH AND
AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING, A SEA/BAY BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP DURING
THE COURSE OF THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER ALONG THE COAST. THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW THE SURFACE FLOW
TURNING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST IN RESPONSE.
THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS,
THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS USED TO ASSIST. THIS INCLUDED SHOWING
A FASTER TEMPERATURE RISE SO FAR FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. THE DEW POINTS
SHOULD LOWER SOME WITH AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING DESPITE LESS
MIXING TODAY. THE HRRR WAS USED TO ADJUST THE WINDS. NO MAJOR
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ATTM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AS A CDFNT IN THE
MIDWEST ADVANCES EWD. EXPECT A GENLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH A MORE SWLY
FLOW SO TEMPS WONT BE AS CHILLY AS TONIGHT. CLOUDS SHUD INCREASE A
BIT IN WRN AREAS BY DAYBREAK.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, AND A MUDDLED PATTERN THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MONDAY...FIRST THOUGH, GOOD NEWS ABOUT MONDAY, IT WILL BE
BEAUTIFUL. WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF
SHORE AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THEREFORE,
MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE 70. THE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, AND SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD LEAD
TO MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS (SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW), BUT OTHERWISE, IT SHOULD BE A NICE SPRING DAY.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE CENTER OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SHOULD
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HUDSON BAY AREA, KEEPING MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE LIFT WELL NORTH OF US. IN ADDITION, A PERSISTENT AND DEEP WARM
MID LAYER WILL LEAD TO VERY MINIMAL INSTABILITY. THUS, MUCH OF THE
REGION HAS ONLY A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FOR ANY SHOWERS, AND THUNDERSTORMS, AT
LEAST IN OUR AREA ARE VERY UNLIKELY.
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY PIVOT EAST OVER THE REGION, LEAVING US WITH TRANQUIL
WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING IN OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES
THE COUNTRY. THE DIFFERENCE FROM YESTERDAY`S MODEL RUNS HOWEVER,
IS THAT BOTH MODELS ARE NOW EVEN SLOWER WITH THE CUTOFF LOW
(KEEPING IT GENERALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK), AND DO BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
(ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH) NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS STILL SEEMS A BIT STRANGE OF A PATTERN FOR MID
APRIL, BUT WITH THE MODELS REMAINING CONSISTENT ON THIS SOLUTION,
FORECAST TRENDED CLOSER TO GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE. WHAT THIS MEANS
AS FAR AS IMPACTS FOR OUR REGION, WE COULD HAVE A PERIOD (AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS TO BE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY) OF A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT. MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FOR THE 12 TO 18 HOURS
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL (GENERALLY
RANGING FROM 1 TO 1.3 INCHES AND THE 0 TO 6 KM MEAN WIND COULD BE
LESS THAN 20 KT AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THERE
REMAIN SEVERAL BIG QUESTION MARKS FOR THIS SYSTEM, PRIMARILY HOW
BIG OF A WINDOW WILL WE HAVE THE HIGHER PWAT VALUES BEFORE THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. THEREFORE, HAVE NOT MENTIONED THIS IN
THE HWO AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TODAY...VFR. LIGHT/VARIABLE TO LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS,
BECOMING WEST AND SOUTHWEST 5-8 KNOTS. THE WIND SHOULD TURN MORE
FROM THE SOUTH AT MAINLY KILG AND KACY BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON DUE
TO AN INFLUENCE FROM A BAY/SEA BREEZE.
TONIGHT...VFR. SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 KNOTS OR LESS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY, WITH
CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THURSDAY...CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS INCREASES LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM
PDS WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA THEN MOVG EWD OVER THE CSTL WATERS.
PK WIND GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS 1 TO 3 FT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WIND GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT POSSIBLE WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN ABRUPT SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT.
GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT.
WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
THURSDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY AND
INCREASE. WIND GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
DAY. WITH THE WIND SPEED INCREASE, WAVE HEIGHTS MAY APPROACH 5 FT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY, ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES DROPPING BELOW 30
PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WHICH WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL DRYING OF
THE FINE FUELS. HOWEVER, WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH
LIGHTER, AVERAGING NEAR 10 MPH.
FOR MONDAY, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR OR BELOW 30 PERCENT ARE
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NJ AND SOUTHEASTERN PA. THE BIGGER QUESTION
THOUGH WILL BE WINDS. AT THIS POINT, DO NOT EXPECT THE STRONGEST
WIND GUSTS TO OCCUR UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING, WHEN
WE`VE ALREADY SEEN SOME RH RECOVERY. EVEN THEN WIND GUSTS WILL BE
MARGINAL UNTIL A COLD FRONT ARRIVES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
FIRE WEATHER...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1057 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2015
.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION OVER SOUTH LA/SE TX...HAS REMAINED SCATTERED AND SLOW
TO PROGRESS NWD TODAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS EVEN MORE FOR THIS
AFTN/EVE...AND EVEN REMOVING POPS FAR NORTH THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH
DEWPOINTS ACROSS MOST OF AREA HAVE JUMPED A FEW DEGREES IN JUST
THE PAST HOUR. RUC DATA ALSO SUPPORTS MOISTENING IN LOW TO MID
LVLS...BUT DRY ABOVE 500 MB...SUGGESTING SCATTERED
COVERAGE...UNTIL THAT LAYER CONTINUES TO MOISTEN. TEMPS LOOK GOOD
ACROSS AREA SO MADE NO CHANGES THERE./VII/.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 709 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2015/
AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE
FOUR STATE REGION AS WELL AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE LOWER IN AND AROUND THE RAIN...OCCASIONALLY
BETWEEN 2 AND 5 MILES. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR AT
MOST AIRPORTS BY 06Z AS THE RAIN CONTINUES TO SATURATE THE LOWER
LEVELS. SURFACE WIND TODAY EAST TO SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KTS BECOMING
MOSTLY SOUTHERLY AFTER 13/00Z. /14/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SELY FLOW AT THE SFC BEGINNING TO RETURN OVER THE WRN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION THIS MORNING...AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NWD FROM
THE NRN GULF COAST. MEANWHILE ALOFT...FLOW CONTINUES TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY SWLY AHEAD OF A DEEP CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER NWRN MEXICO. DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH THE
WARM FRONT TODAY AS IT LIFTS NWD...GENERATING SHWRS/TSTMS THAT
WILL SPREAD FROM S TO N. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST
INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...AS THE
UPPER LOW SLOWLY OPENS AND TRACKS ENEWD. DESPITE WET SOILS...FLASH
FLOODING THREAT LOOKS VERY MARGINAL AND SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
INDIVIDUAL ISOLD OCCURRENCES DUE TO THE FCST SCATTERED NATURE OF
THE DEEPER POCKETS OF CONVECTION. A WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCHES OF
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS FOR OUR AREA EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF N CENTRAL LA. AS HAS
BEEN MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DAYS...THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE THE POTENTIAL THREAT FOR FLOODING ON AREA LAKES
AND RIVERS.
THE DEPARTURE OF THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SHORT BREAK FROM
RAINFALL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT
AN EVEN DEEPER UPPER LOW WILL SWING INTO NM AND WRN TX DURING
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...GENERATING ANOTHER WIDESPREAD ROUND OF
CONVECTION THAT DOESN`T LOOK TO END UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT AT THE
EARLIEST. AT THIS POINT...MODELS ARE PRETTY DIVERGENT WITH REGARD
TO THE INTENSITY/STATE/SPEED OF THIS SECOND UPPER LOW...SO POPS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE HANDLED CONSERVATIVELY IN THE EXTENDED.
TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PD LOOK TO HOVER WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES
OF SEASONAL NORMALS...AS NO SIGNIFICANT SUN EXPOSURE OR CHANGE IN
AIRMASS IS EXPECTED. /12/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 77 66 77 64 / 30 60 60 50
MLU 77 65 78 62 / 40 60 60 50
DEQ 77 64 74 58 / 10 60 60 50
TXK 76 64 75 59 / 20 60 60 50
ELD 76 65 73 59 / 20 60 60 50
TYR 77 66 77 62 / 30 60 60 50
GGG 75 66 78 64 / 30 60 60 50
LFK 78 67 79 65 / 50 70 60 50
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
638 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 410 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2015
Activity over eastern KS/western MO is making very slow progress to
the east northeast as it hits the "wall" of drier air over region.
However, models continue to spread higher dewpts into western MO
this morning on nose of low level jet. This in conjunction with a
decent shortwave over central KS, a more substantial area of storms
have developed and the 05z HRRR tracks this complex east northeast
towards forecast area over the next several hours. Scattered showers
and some elevated convection to move through central and northeast
MO, west central IL through midday before diminishing. Otherwise,
main issue for today will be the temperatures. Will see decent cloud
cover today, so will trend towards the cooler guidance and kept
highs in the upper 60s far north to the mid 70s far south, where the
cloud cover may be thinner.
Byrd
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 410 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2015
Primary forecast concerns for tonight and into Monday remain focused
on how to handle the precipitation threat during this time period.
All of the 00z synoptic solutions...as well as the latest available
hi-res output...are continuing earlier trends depicting an
agonizingly slow southeast push of the showers and thunderstorms
overnight tonight. Initially the delay seems to be the result of
the residually dry low level air, but once the moisture does arrive
most of the lift is primarily focused over northwest sections of the
CWA...due to shortwave energy and (by late tonight) forcing along
cold front. Given the good agreement in the solutions I`ve tried to
"think" slow with the progression of PoPs into our southeast
counties, but over NW sections of the FA forecast will push PoPs
into the categorical range by late tonight due the plentiful
moisture in this area as well as the aforementioned lifting
mechanisms, and low level jet advecting unstable air into this area.
Can`t totally rule out a threat of some hail with the overnight
storms, but with the best instability remaining over the Plains the
Day 1 SWO depiction that keeps the primary severe weather threat
west of our CWA looks good.
Precipitation chances will be pushing southeast on Monday with the
cold front, and by afternoon it would appear the only rain threat
left in our CWA will be confined to our far southeast counties.
Placement of PoPs during the morning a bit of a question mark as
there is some uncertainly on how fast the band of showers and storms
over northwest sections of the CWA will wind down during the predawn
hours, but for now will stay fairly close to going trends which has
the northern edge of the morning rain near a KPPQ-KJEF line.
With cold front dropping south of the FA, and with surface ridge
pushing into the region in the front`s wake, dry forecast still
looks good for Monday night and into Tuesday. However, threat of
wet weather will return Tuesday night and Wednesday as remnants of
upper low meanders north-northeast from the southern Plains. For
now, have maintained chance PoPs with this system.
Overall, no big AMS changes appear to be in the offing through
midweek so temperatures should be near mid-April averages, with
temperature specifics largely driven by cloud cover.
As the remnants of the upper low lifts into the upper Midwest by
Wednesday evening, upper level low is forecast to develop over the
southern Rockies, with both the GFS and ECMWF eventually cutting
the his low off from the westerlies. In spite of the fact that the
stronger westerly flow (and dynamics) will become established
primarily north of our area, there are suggestions of weak
shortwaves ejecting from the upper low. So, will continue chance
PoPs over most of the CWA for the Thu-Sat time frame, with near
seasonal temperatures.
Truett
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2015
Complex of showers and storms to slide east northeast towards
forecast area this morning. But coverage and timing hard to pin
down, so only have vcnty shower mention for KCOU and KUIN at this
time. Otherwise, vfr conditions with winds becoming south and
picking up by mid morning. Next round of more robust activity will
be ahead of cold front tonight with front moving through taf sites
between 10z and 13z Monday. Winds to veer to the northwest behind
the front.
Specifics for KSTL:
Complex of showers and storms to slide east northeast towards
forecast area this morning. But should remain north of STL.
Otherwise, vfr conditions with winds becoming south and picking up
by 16z. Next round of more robust activity will be ahead
of cold front beginning around 07z Monday with front moving through
metro area by 13z Monday. Winds to veer to the northwest behind
the front.
Byrd
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
612 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2015
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
MVFR to IFR ceilings will continue at all sites this morning, with
VFR ceilings returning by late morning or early afternoon. Showers
and thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon and evening
at all sites, but confidence in timing and coverage remains low,
so only VCTS groups were included. Most showers and thunderstorms
should be east of the TAF sites by 06z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2015/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
The main concern through the next 24 hours is the potential for
showers and thunderstorms as an upper level low approaches from
the west. An upper level low is currently centered across northern
Baja California and is forecast to approach far West Texas this
evening. PoPs for today were reduced across much of the area, as
most of the upper level lift associated with the low will not
overspread the area until late this afternoon and overnight.
Still, isolated to scattered showers will be possible this
afternoon, mainly across the southern and western parts of the
forecast area. Highs today will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Overnight, the chance of showers and thunderstorms will increase
as the upper level approaches and upper level lift overspreads
West Central Texas. Some uncertainty remains on the extent of
precipitation overnight, with some indications that parts of the
area may get dry slotted, mainly across the northern Edwards
Plateau and possibly parts of the Concho Valley. PoPs were lowered
slightly, ranging from chance across the northern Edwards Plateau
and Concho Valley, to likely across the northern Big Country and
northwest Hill Country. Latest runs of the HRRR are optimistic in
a large area of showers and thunderstorms approaching our western
counties by late afternoon/early evening, but am reluctant to go
too high on PoPs at this time. The main threat with the convection
looks to be locally heavy rainfall and dangerous cloud to ground
lightning. Rain chances will quickly decrease from southwest to
northeast during the early morning hours Monday. Overnight lows
will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Forecast challenges will be rain chances mainly Monday/Monday
night, and then again later in the week.
By Monday, the upper low over the Baja Peninsula this morning will
be moving into the southeastern NM/west Texas area. At the same
time, and cold front will be moving south through the Texas
Panhandle and western Oklahoma. The combination of these two
synoptic features will result in showers and thunderstorms
developing mainly along and ahead of the cold front Monday.
Showers and thunderstorms are most likely along and north of a
Sterling City to Brownwood line in the vicinity of the cold front.
Exactly where the cold front progresses to by Monday afternoon is
still in question however. So, with the front in the area,
increasing deep layer shear, and moderate instability in place
along/ahead of the cold front, it isn`t out of the question that
some of the thunderstorms that do develop could strengthen to
severe levels Monday afternoon and evening, especially along the
cold front. Severe weather hazards would be limited mainly to
large hail and damaging winds if it occurs. PoP values go from
`likely` (60%) in the Big Country, to slight chance and chance
(20-30%) along the I-10 corridor, based on the cold front stalling
near the Sterling City/Brownwood line in the afternoon. Rain
chances continue into the evening hours, mainly for the northern
half of the CWA, with decreasing rain chances Tuesday as the upper
level low moves off to the northeast away from the area.
Southwest flow returns Tuesday night into Wednesday with generally
dry weather across the area.
The next chance for rain begins Wednesday night into Thursday as
another low drops south through the Rocky Mountains into the four
corners region, then turns east, and moves across the Texas
panhandle region into the southern plains. Have kept a slight
chance to chance in the forecast from Wednesday night through
Thursday night for this feature. However, with very dry air aloft
rotating to the east around the south side of the upper level low,
there is some concern that the best precipitation chances would be
pushed to the east of our area.
Have kept the generally dry forecast going for the area from
Friday into Saturday. However, the latest run of the ECMWF is now
stalling the upper level low near the four corners region through
this time period resulting in additional rain chances. Will have
to keep an eye on model trends concerning this change, and update
the forecast as needed.
20
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 81 59 75 55 72 / 20 50 60 50 20
San Angelo 80 58 79 55 75 / 40 50 40 20 10
Junction 80 60 79 56 78 / 40 60 30 20 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1011 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2015
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...LEAD SHORTWAVE AND WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION
GENERATING A FEW SHRA ACROSS IA WITH STEADIER RAINS ACROSS NRN MO
CLOSER TO MAIN FORCING OF VORT CENTER. LATEST HRRR HAS BACKED OFF
FURTHER ON ANY ARRIVING PCPN UNTIL AFTER 21Z OR SO INTO FAR SRN
WI. EARLIER RUNS WERE QUICKER ON BRINGING PRECIP IN. RAP SOUNDINGS
ARE REALLY QUITE DRY SO FOR TAF PURPOSES WILL HOLD OFF AND KEEP
PCPN CONFINED TO THE OVERNIGHT PORTIONS DUE TO LINGERING INFLUENCE
OF DRY AIRMASS AND LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FEE. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE
AND DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTION COINCIDE TONIGHT TO PRODUCE BEST
RAIN CHCS. ANY SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
DEPART MONDAY MORNING WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS/DRYING AND NVA TAKING
HOLD.
PC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2015/
TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
MODELS HAVE SLOWED TIMING OF FRONT...THOUGH STILL BRING SOME LIGHT
QPF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH FORCING FROM LEAD
SHORT WAVE. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS SHOW BETTER MOISTURE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST SO WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS THERE BUT STILL
CHANCE CATEGORY. WORRIED THAT DRY LAYER BELOW 6K-7K FT WILL LIMIT
AMOUNTS. MINIMAL INSTABILITY WITH LITTLE TO NO CAPE...BUT WILL HAVE
A COLLABORATIVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE A BIT STEEPER.
BREEZY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MIXING UP TO 30 KNOT
WINDS. BUMPED TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES WITH THIS DEEPER MIXING
THOUGH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SW WHERE CLOUDS MOVE IN EARLIER AND WILL
LIMIT HIGHS.
TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH
MAY BE A BREAK IN THE SHOWERS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING AFTERNOON SHORT
WAVE AND FORCING ALONG FRONT AND AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH. WILL
START POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AND RAISE THEM TO CATEGORICAL IN
THE WEST BY 06Z THEN TAKE THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONT. AGAIN SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...CAPE
AROUND 200 J/KG...SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. SHOWERS
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. WITH FROM NOT EXITING THE EAST
UNTIL AFTER 12Z...WILL SEE TEMPS HOLD IN THE 50S FOR LOWS...WITH
SOME UPPER 40S IN THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT BY DAYBREAK.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AT
DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EAST AS THE
FRONT EXITS. IT SHOULD TURN DRY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT.
THE HIGH WILL THEN SLIDE THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH
PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL MOST PLACES MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THE WARMEST DAY FALLING ON TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER NEAR THE LAKE TUE/WED UNDER ONSHORE WINDS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS AND A COUPLE WAVES MOVE THROUGH.
MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF
SYSTEMS DURING THIS PERIOD...SO KEPT POPS ON THE LOWER END FOR
NOW.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN FOR SATURDAY...BRINING MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES TO START THE WEEKEND.
LOOKS LIKE MORE OF THE SAME WITH TEMPS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...ABOVE NORMAL WITH COOLER CONDITIONS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY
WITH INCREASING MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AS
UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH. COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WITH THIS WAVE THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN THE MID-LATE MORNING AND GUST TO 25 TO 28 KTS IN THE
WEST...AND 20 TO 25 KTS IN THE EAST.
RAIN SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT WITH A SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT. COULD GET A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER BUT INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL. LOOK FOR WEST WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY MORNING...INCREASING TO HIGHER LEVELS THAN
TODAY WIT GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS.
MARINE...WILL KEEP CURRENT TIMING OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH
HIGHER SRLY WIND GUSTS NOT MIXING DOWN TO THE WATER UNTIL LATE
MORNING. WINDS MAY SUBSIDE FOR A TIME WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT EARLY
MONDAY MORNING BUT WILL TURN WEST AND RISE TO STRONGER LEVELS THAN
TODAY. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY MONDAY EVENING...AND WITH OFFSHORE
FETCH WAVES WILL BE JUST BELOW CRITERIA.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DDV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
558 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS CENTRAL IA EARLY THIS MORNING AND ARE MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST AROUND 25 KTS. LATEST HRRR HAS PICKED UP ON THESE TRENDS
AND WILL FOLLOW ITS SOLUTION FOR THE MORNING HOURS...RESULTING IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST MN AND FAR WESTERN WI. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS NO INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WITH A
FEW REPORTED LIGHTNING STRIKES...WILL ADD ISOLATED THUNDER AS
WELL. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE MINIMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2015
CHALLENGES INCLUDE WIND AND TEMPERATURES TODAY...FOLLOWED BY
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES/TIMING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
12.00Z GLOBAL MODEL SUITE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT WILL FOLLOW
RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE FOR TIMING OF TONIGHT/S CONVECTION.
TODAY WILL BE WARM AND WINDY AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT THAT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE DAY ASSOCIATED WITH A LEADING SHORT-WAVE CURRENTLY
OVER NE/KS. SOME OF ITS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD
CLIP THE SOUTHERNMOST FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON
AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN MO/SOUTHERN IA...BUT THE REST OF
THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. 925 HPA TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND +12
CELSIUS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP LIMIT FULL
WARMING POTENTIAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 70S ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MN AND NORTHEAST IA IF MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS ARE REALIZED.
BIGGER CONCERN TODAY IS STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS. AFTERNOON BOUNDARY
LAYER DEEPENS TO BETWEEN 800 AND 850 HPA WITH ROUGHLY 35 TO 40 KTS
TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 20
TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. COULD SEE BRIEF WIND ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ACROSS WIND PRONE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST
IA...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY.
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND WILL ADVECT MOISTURE NORTHWARD...RESULTING
IN DEW POINT TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 40S AND KEEPING MINIMUM
RH VALUES 40 PERCENT OR HIGHER.
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH I-35 CORRIDOR BY 00Z TONIGHT AND THEN
SWEEP ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. STRONG WARMING IN THE 1-2 KM LAYER THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SQUASH ANY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION...BUT
MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW 200 TO 500 J/KG OF ELEVATED SKINNY CAPE. 0
TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KTS LATER THIS
EVENING...BUT MOST OF THIS IS IN THE LOWEST COUPLE KILOMETERS. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME...BUT COULD STILL SEE
SOME SMALL HAIL COMBINED WITH LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2015
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES QUICKLY INTO NE/IA FOR MONDAY...
KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG
NORTHERN FLANK. AS A RESULT...EXPECT BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND WITH
SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. IN
ADDITION...DRIER AIR MASS WILL ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO DROP
INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE.
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
OCCASIONAL SOUTHERLY BREEZES AS 500 HPA RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS
THE NATION/S MID-SECTION. DAILY HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
LOW PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A COUPLE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT-WAVES MOVE ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HOWEVER...WITH 500 HPA CLOSED LOW NOW
STALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NOT PHASING WITH NORTHERN
SYSTEMS...NOT LOOKING AT ANY PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN. IN FACT...
INSTABILITY HAS ALL BUT DISAPPEARED...SO REMOVED ANY THUNDER
MENTION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. EXPECT A RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS BY THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 557 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2015
KEEPING AN EYE ON ACCAS/SCATTERED SHRA/ISOLD THUNDER MOVING ACROSS
NORTHEAST IA AND SOUTHEAST MN. THIS CONVECTION WAS AHEAD OF A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND PUSH OF MOISTURE. HAVE ADDED VCSH TO KRST
FROM TIL 14Z...BUT MAY HAVE TO EXTEND A BIT LONGER TIL THE WAVE
PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA AROUND 18Z. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH KLSE
TAF FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION OF VCSH AS WELL THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AT BOTH TAF
SITES THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. LOOKING AT SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE
WITH GUSTS 30-35KT. NEXT CONCERN WILL BE SHRA/TS ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT LIKELY DETERIORATING INTO MVFR
WITH SHRA/TS ACTIVITY. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1215 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR AREA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS OUR AREA
TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER OUR REGION AND WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SPRAWLING AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR REGION AT
MIDDAY, WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS
THIS OCCURS, THE LIGHT FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE
REGION. THE 12Z STERLING, VA RAOB SHOWS A RATHER DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE.
WHILE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED, THERE IS A SHORT WAVE ALONG
WITH SOME WAA ONGOING IN THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS
ALONG WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL JET IS ASSISTING IN SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST. SOME OF THIS SHOULD ARRIVE IN OUR
REGION AS WE GO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE DRY AIRMASS AND AMPLE SUNSHINE HAS HELPED BOOST TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY FROM THE CHILLY START, AND WE ARE EXPECTING HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. GIVEN THE LIGHTER FLOW THOUGH
AND AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING, A SEA/BAY BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP
DURING THE COURSE OF THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST. THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW THE SURFACE
FLOW TURNING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST IN
RESPONSE.
THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS,
THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS USED TO ASSIST. THIS INCLUDED
LOWERING THE DEW POINTS SOME, AND THESE LOWER DEW POINTS SHOULD
BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING DESPITE LESS MIXING. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES ATTM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AS A CDFNT IN THE
MIDWEST ADVANCES EWD. EXPECT A GENLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH A MORE SWLY
FLOW SO TEMPS WONT BE AS CHILLY AS TONIGHT. CLOUDS SHUD INCREASE A
BIT IN WRN AREAS BY DAYBREAK.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, AND A MUDDLED PATTERN THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MONDAY...FIRST THOUGH, GOOD NEWS ABOUT MONDAY, IT WILL BE
BEAUTIFUL. WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF
SHORE AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THEREFORE,
MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE 70. THE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, AND SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD LEAD
TO MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS (SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW), BUT OTHERWISE, IT SHOULD BE A NICE SPRING DAY.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE CENTER OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SHOULD
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HUDSON BAY AREA, KEEPING MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE LIFT WELL NORTH OF US. IN ADDITION, A PERSISTENT AND DEEP WARM
MID LAYER WILL LEAD TO VERY MINIMAL INSTABILITY. THUS, MUCH OF THE
REGION HAS ONLY A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FOR ANY SHOWERS, AND THUNDERSTORMS, AT
LEAST IN OUR AREA ARE VERY UNLIKELY.
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY PIVOT EAST OVER THE REGION, LEAVING US WITH TRANQUIL
WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING IN OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES
THE COUNTRY. THE DIFFERENCE FROM YESTERDAY`S MODEL RUNS HOWEVER,
IS THAT BOTH MODELS ARE NOW EVEN SLOWER WITH THE CUTOFF LOW
(KEEPING IT GENERALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK), AND DO BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
(ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH) NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS STILL SEEMS A BIT STRANGE OF A PATTERN FOR MID
APRIL, BUT WITH THE MODELS REMAINING CONSISTENT ON THIS SOLUTION,
FORECAST TRENDED CLOSER TO GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE. WHAT THIS MEANS
AS FAR AS IMPACTS FOR OUR REGION, WE COULD HAVE A PERIOD (AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS TO BE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY) OF A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT. MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FOR THE 12 TO 18 HOURS
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL (GENERALLY
RANGING FROM 1 TO 1.3 INCHES AND THE 0 TO 6 KM MEAN WIND COULD BE
LESS THAN 20 KT AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THERE
REMAIN SEVERAL BIG QUESTION MARKS FOR THIS SYSTEM, PRIMARILY HOW
BIG OF A WINDOW WILL WE HAVE THE HIGHER PWAT VALUES BEFORE THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. THEREFORE, HAVE NOT MENTIONED THIS IN
THE HWO AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THIS AFTERNOON...VFR. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5-8
KNOTS. THE WIND SHOULD TURN MORE FROM THE SOUTH AT MAINLY KILG AND
KACY BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO AN INFLUENCE FROM A BAY/SEA
BREEZE.
TONIGHT...VFR. SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 KNOTS OR LESS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY, WITH
CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THURSDAY...CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS INCREASES LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM
PDS WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA THEN MOVG EWD OVER THE CSTL WATERS.
PK WIND GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS 1 TO 3 FT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WIND GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT POSSIBLE WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN ABRUPT SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT.
GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT.
WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
THURSDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY AND
INCREASE. WIND GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
DAY. WITH THE WIND SPEED INCREASE, WAVE HEIGHTS MAY APPROACH 5 FT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY, ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES DROPPING BELOW 30
PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WHICH WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL DRYING OF
THE FINE FUELS. HOWEVER, WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH
LIGHTER, AVERAGING 5 TO 10 MPH.
FOR MONDAY, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR OR BELOW 30 PERCENT ARE
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NJ AND SOUTHEASTERN PA. THE BIGGER QUESTION
THOUGH WILL BE WINDS. AT THIS POINT, DO NOT EXPECT THE STRONGEST
WIND GUSTS TO OCCUR UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING, WHEN
WE`VE ALREADY SEEN SOME RH RECOVERY. EVEN THEN WIND GUSTS WILL BE
MARGINAL UNTIL A COLD FRONT ARRIVES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
FIRE WEATHER...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
101 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015
.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ATTM...BUT AM
EXPECTING A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO LOW VFR BY MID-AFTERNOON. A WARM
FRONT HAS SHIFTED N INTO SE OK/SW AR AS OF MIDDAY...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN DEEPENING MOISTURE LEVELS ESPECIALLY AS A SW FLOW ALOFT
PERSISTS AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW THAT WILL ENTER SE NM/FAR W TX LATE
TONIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SCT SHRA DEVELOPING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THIS DISTURBANCE
SHIFTS NE ACROSS THE AREA. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THOUGH AND THUS
HAVE MENTIONED VCSH WITH SOME TEMPO SHRA WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS.
CIGS SHOULD BECOME MVFR THIS EVENING...WITH IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY/AFTER 06Z. SHOULD START TO SEE AREAS OF SHRA
DEVELOP/SPREAD ENE ACROSS E TX/SE OK BY 12Z MONDAY...QUICKLY
SHIFTING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING. SHOULD START TO SEE SOME SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS ACROSS
E TX/NCNTRL LA JUST AFTER THE END OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD...AS THE
SHRA DIMINISHES. SSE WINDS 5-10KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. /15/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2015/
DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION OVER SOUTH LA/SE TX...HAS REMAINED SCATTERED AND SLOW
TO PROGRESS NWD TODAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS EVEN MORE FOR THIS
AFTN/EVE...AND EVEN REMOVING POPS FAR NORTH THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH
DEWPOINTS ACROSS MOST OF AREA HAVE JUMPED A FEW DEGREES IN JUST
THE PAST HOUR. RUC DATA ALSO SUPPORTS MOISTENING IN LOW TO MID
LVLS...BUT DRY ABOVE 500 MB...SUGGESTING SCATTERED
COVERAGE...UNTIL THAT LAYER CONTINUES TO MOISTEN. TEMPS LOOK GOOD
ACROSS AREA SO MADE NO CHANGES THERE. /VII/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 77 66 77 64 / 30 60 60 50
MLU 77 65 78 62 / 40 60 60 50
DEQ 77 64 74 58 / 10 60 60 50
TXK 76 64 75 59 / 20 60 60 50
ELD 76 65 73 59 / 20 60 60 50
TYR 77 66 77 62 / 30 60 60 50
GGG 75 66 78 64 / 30 60 60 50
LFK 78 67 79 65 / 50 70 60 50
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
426 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ADVANCING THROUGH THE WRN PLAINS WITH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO HUDSON BAY. AT THE SFC...A FRONT EXTENDED
THROUGH NW MN AND ERN SD FROM A LOW OVER NE MANITOBA. GUSTY SRLY
WINDS TO 30-35 MPH HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MN/WI/UPPER MI WITH A TIGHT
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND HIGH PRES OVER THE ERN CONUS.
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC FRONT
ADVANCE TOWARD THE WRN LAKES...EXPECT SHRA COVERAGE TO INCREASE
ACROSS ERN MN INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY LATE THIS EVENING. MODELS
WERE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AND PCPN
THROUGH THE REGION...REFLECTING THE SLOWING TREND FROM THE LAST
SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES. WITH MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300 QVECTOR CONV
AND 800-600 MB FGEN AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH NMRS SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS UPPER MI...MAINLY FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 06Z-15Z.
ALTHOUGH ONLY MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG IS
FCST...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-45 KNOTS BRINGING 850 MB
DEWPOINTS NEAR 8C MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME ISOLD TSRA.
STRONG QVECTOR DIV AND DRYING IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD THROUGH UPPER MI
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH DROPPING 600-500 MB TEMPS AND
RESULTING NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC PROFILE AND MIXING HEIGHT TO NEAR 15K
FT...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THE STRONGEST WRLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE TYPICALLY FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
KEWEENAW WHERE GUSTS TO 40-45 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE HIGH SFC-
600MB LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
OR SPRINKLES/VIRGA DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH
MIXING DEPTH SHOULD ALSO DROP DEWPOINTS INTO THE TEENS WITH RH VALUES
TO NEAR 20 PCT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015
MON NIGHT MAY SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS LINGERING FROM MON...BUT WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE E OF THE AREA...SKIES WILL BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR. THIS WILL ALLOW INTERIOR W TEMPS TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING.
A SFC RIDGE MOVING OVER ON TUE WILL LEAD LIGHT WINDS AND SUNNY
SKIES. SHOULD BE A VERY DRY DAY WITH MIN RH VALUES AS LOW AS THE MID
TEENS INTERIOR W HALF...AND IN AND IN THE 20S ELSEWHERE AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE GREAT LAKES LAKESHORE AREAS. WIND GUSTS WILL BE IN THE
10-15MPH RANGE DURING PEAK HEATING/DRIEST CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE COOLEST OVER THE E IN THE 40S TO MID 50S DUE TO NW WINDS OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR AND WARMEST OVER THE INTERIOR WEST HALF IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S.
WED MAY BE A MORE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER DAY AS INCREASED SLY FLOW
BRINGS WARMER BUT STILL DRY AIR INTO THE REGION WITH GUSTY SLY WINDS
BETWEEN THE EXITING SFC HIGH AND AN APPROACHING SFC TROUGH. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INTERIOR W TO THE MID 50S E DOWNWIND
OF LAKE MI. SFC GUSTS TO AROUND 20MPH ARE EXPECTED. MIN RH VALUES
WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S OVER MUCH OF THE WEST HALF AND
INTERIOR E HALF...WITH RH VALUES IN THE 30S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND
LAKE MICHIGAN. THIRD DAY IN A ROW OF LOW RH VALUES COMBINED WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
A WEAK SFC TROUGH STRETCHED BETWEEN A NRN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS CANADA AND A LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY TRANSIT
THE AREA ON THU. MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BOTH BE LIMITED...SO RAIN
CHANCES ARE VERY LOW AND TRENDING LOWER ON THU. TEMPS DO LOOK TO BE
A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S ON THU AND SFC RH WILL
BE HIGHER.
INCREASED UNCERTAINTY FRI INTO SUN AS MODELS CONTINUE THE IDEA OF
BRINGING A QUICK HITTING SHORTWAVE TO THE REGION FRI NIGHT AND A
DEEP TROUGH TO JUST W OF THE REGION LATE SUN. RAN CONSENSUS BLEND
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT LEAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING. LLWS WAS AGAIN AT KSAW TONIGHT AS THE CORE OF STRONGER
SW WINDS MOVES IN ABOVE THE SFC. GUSTY SSW WINDS WITH FAVORABLE
DAYTIME MIXING WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING FOR ALL SITES. SHRA
MOVING IN ALONG FRONT LATE TONIGHT SHOULD HELP LOWER CIGS DOWN TO
MVFR AT ALL SITES. RECOVERY TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY LATE MON MORNING
WITH DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015
STRONG SRLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. WINDSPEEDS WILL
BE VERY DEPENDENT ON MEASURING HEIGHT GIVEN THE STABLE TEMP PROFILE
AND MARINE LAYER OVER THE LAKE. GALES ARE STILL EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS EVENING OVER THE EAST FOR THE HIGHER PLATFORMS. BEHIND THE
TROUGH...EXPECT W WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 20 TO 30KT WITH SOME GALE
FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING
WINDS DOWN UNDER 20 KNOTS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015
LOW CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL HELP KEEP STREAM
LEVELS IN CHECK AS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF REMAINING SNOW PACK MELTS
OFF THIS WEEK. ENSEMBLE RIVER GUIDANCE AND RIVER FORECASTS SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR THE SURGEON RIVER OF BARAGA AND HOUGHTON COUNTIES AND
ESCANABA RIVER TO APPROACH BANKFULL STAGE IN SOME SPOTS MID-
WEEK...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT THE HEADWATERS OF THESE RIVER
HAVE THE MOST SNOW. THE MICHIGAMME RIVER ALSO HAS GREATER SNOWPACK
IN THE HEADWATERS REGION OF THE PESHEKEE RIVER...BUT IT SHOULD TAKE
LONGER FOR THAT WATER TO REACH LOWER SECTIONS OF THE RIVER MORE
PRONE TO FLOODING. STILL...NOT SEEING ANYTHING SUGGESTING MORE THAN
ACTION STAGE POSSIBLE ON THE MICHIGAMME RIVER. OVERALL...NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
HYDROLOGY...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
328 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL PUSH EAST TONIGHT
ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE
WEST. AFTER A DRY EVENING...SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AREA. THERE COULD EVEN BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME
TO A END ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES IN FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015
MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH HOW THE WEATHER WILL UNFOLD FOR
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HRRR RUC BRINGS SHOWERS IN THIS EVENING AND
THEN SUGGESTS MOST WESTERN LOCATIONS WILL END UP WET LATER
TONIGHT AS CONVECTION TRACKS THROUGH ILLINOIS. NAM...GFS AND HIGH
RES EURO ARE GENERALLY BACKING OFF ON ANY PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT...BUT STILL SUPPORT SHOWERS FOR MONDAY MORNING. WITH SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ARRIVING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MI...THERE
COULD BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL. LIFT IN THE DGZ IS STILL
SHOWN TO BE FAVORABLE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN FROM THE GFS. WILL KEEP
POPS ELEVATED FOR THIS EVENT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOWER.
SPC WRF WOULD KEEP THE SHOWERS GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS
TREND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
SUBSIDENCE IN THE DGZ ARRIVES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL ACT TO KEEP THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY PRECIPITATION LOW.
GIVEN THE DRY ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...MON NIGHT AND TUE
NIGHT SHOULD BE COOL. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FOR TUESDAY
DURING THE DAY GIVEN THE STRONG EXPECTED SUNSHINE WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LIKELY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST WILL FEATURE MILD SPRING WEATHER
ALONG WITH SOME CHCS FOR APRIL SHOWERS. WE EXPECT THAT MOST OF THE
PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY ASIDE FROM THE WED NIGHT/THU SYSTEM. WE DO
HAVE TO INCLUDE SOME LOW CHCS FOR A FEW SHOWERS FOR A COUPLE OF
OTHER PERIODS.
ONE OF THE BEST DAYS OF THE LONG TERM WILL COME AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD ON WED. WE WILL SEE SFC RIDGING MOVE BY TO OUR EAST AND
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD. RETURN FLOW WILL BRING MAX
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.
THE BEST CHC FOR RAIN WILL COME ON WED NIGHT/THU AS MENTIONED ABOVE.
IT APPEARS THAT WE SHOULD SEE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFT NE OUT OF THE
SW. THIS WAVE WILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
WORK WITH AS IT MOVES TO THE NE.
WE HAVE TRENDED THE FCST DRIER FOR THE THU NIGHT/FRI TIME
FRAME....WITH LEAVING JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN.
THE LATEST TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR THE THU FRONT TO CLEAR THE
AREA...AND THEN THE PROGRESSIVE WRLY FLOW JUST SOUTH OF THE NRN
BRANCH OF THE JET TO SETTLE IN. THIS SETUP COMBINED WITH THE UPPER
LOW CLOSING OFF ACROSS THE DESERT SW WILL KEEP THE AREA IN BETWEEN
THE SPLIT FLOW JET STRUCTURE WITHOUT ANY KIND OF APPRECIABLE
MOISTURE FEED.
WE WILL SEE A LITTLE BIT BETTER CHC OF RAIN COME IN FOR FRI NIGHT AS
A WAVE IN THE NRN STREAM TRIES TO DROP DOWN INTO THE AREA.
CONDITIONS WILL THEN DRY OUT FOR THE MOST PART NEXT WEEKEND. THE FRI
NIGHT SYSTEM WILL REMAIN MAINLY ACROSS NRN MI WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD ZIP BY SAT
MORNING...LEAVING COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015
OUR MAIN FOCUS OF THE 18Z FCSTS WILL BE THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS
AND ASSOCIATED LOWER CONDITIONS WITH A SYSTEM FROM THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
VFR CONDITIONS RULE THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD RULE THROUGH 00Z
AND LIKELY UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. THAT SAID...WE WILL HAVE SOME MID
CLOUDS COME IN TOWARD 00Z THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY A FEW
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS. THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AMOUNT TO
ANYTHING AND CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
A MUCH MORE LIKELY CHC OF RAIN WILL COME VERY LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
THE WEST AND AFTER DAYBREAK TO THE EAST. IT WILL START OUT AS
VFR...BUT WE EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY A
COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER THE PCPN STARTS. WE ARE EXPECTING IT TO MOVE
INTO KMKG AROUND 10Z OR SO...AND THEN SPREAD EAST BY 14Z. A FEW
HOURS OF MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED BEFORE RAIN AND CLOUDS CLEAR OUT
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AND MORE LIKELY BEYOND THIS FCST
PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT SOME WAVES AROUND 4 FEET
LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING NORTH OF HOLLAND. WILL GO WITH A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY.
THIS WILL ACT TO LIMIT THE WAVE HEIGHTS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015
RIVERS THAT ARE NOT ALREADY FALLING WILL REACH THEIR CREST WITHIN
THE NEXT DAY. THE ROGUE BELOW ROCKFORD FELL BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE
LAST NIGHT SO THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN TRANSITIONED TO AN
ADVISORY. EIGHT RIVERS IN OUR AREA ARE ABOVE BANKFULL AT THIS TIME
AND A FEW WILL FALL BELOW BANKFULL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONE TO
TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING... AND THIS SHOULD HAVE VERY LITTLE TO NO NOTICEABLE IMPACT
ON RIVER LEVELS. A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED THIS
WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ846>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
415 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 415 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015
Tonight:
Morning convective system certainly stabilized an already stable
boundary layer. Airmass has been slow to recover with considerable
cloud cover overspreading the region. However, still expect a line
of convection to roll through tonight, just arriving a bit later.
Attention is turned to the west as a shortwave trough rolls into the
Northern and Central High Plains. HRRR and NAM generate scattered
convection along the NE portion of the cold front. Current visible
satellite imagery indicates cumulus along the front is becoming
agitated so expect to see convection form soon. Activity then
expected to roll eastward. Modest MLCAPEs from 1000-1500J/kg and
30kt 0-6km shear should support some strong/possibly severe storms
to our west by the time the convection moves into our CWA after 03Z
the instability should have waned and convection weakened. A few
storms could produce some sub-severe hail and gusty winds believe
the main concern revolves around locally heavy rainfall. Some areas
could pick up over an inch of rain as the line of storms move
through. All of the precipitation should have exited the eastern CWA
by 12z Monday.
Monday - Tuesday:
Fairly quiet period marked by weak surface high pressure moving in
the wake of the departed cold front. Weak return flow on Tuesday
with little day-to-day temperature change with slightly above
average readings. No discernible affect on sensible weather other
than increasing clouds.
Wednesday/Wednesday night:
The current closed upper low now over northern Mexico is expected to
weaken as it lifts north-northeast through the Central Plains and
CWA. While there should be decent moisture lifted northward with
this feature minimal instability will limit amount of thunder. Given
that the operational models have been generating a similar solution
believe 30-40 PoPs are warranted for scattered convection.
Thursday - Sunday:
Roll of the dice as to how weather will evolve from Thursday through
Sunday. Not especially fond of the blended model approach of carpet
bombing chance PoPs in every period. The medium range models drop a
deep upper trough into the Desert Southwest and then cut it off.
Models typically are challenged significantly with these features
initially. They tend to lift them out too soon and too far east. Will
be interesting to see how this system is handled going forward.
Difficult trying to time any weak impulse ejected from this system
within the downstream southwesterly flow. For now will handle this
with low chance PoPs with above average temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015
Will see VFR conditions initially with thinning cloud cover during
the afternoon hours. Southerly winds will remain steady, gusting to
20 kts at times prior to sunset. A cold front will push through the
area overnight, bringing with it the next chance for precipitation
and thunderstorm activity. Ceiling heights will gradually lower in
advance of the frontal boundary. Isolated thunderstorms will begin to
develop around 05Z with more prevailing activity commencing shortly
thereafter. Ceilings should remain VFR during this development,
though visibilities will diminish at times coincident with the heavier
precipitation. A dry air mass in the wake of the cold front will move
in Monday morning with lifting cloud cover through the morning and
afternoon.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Welsh
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
124 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 410 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2015
Activity over eastern KS/western MO is making very slow progress to
the east northeast as it hits the "wall" of drier air over region.
However, models continue to spread higher dewpts into western MO
this morning on nose of low level jet. This in conjunction with a
decent shortwave over central KS, a more substantial area of storms
have developed and the 05z HRRR tracks this complex east northeast
towards forecast area over the next several hours. Scattered showers
and some elevated convection to move through central and northeast
MO, west central IL through midday before diminishing. Otherwise,
main issue for today will be the temperatures. Will see decent cloud
cover today, so will trend towards the cooler guidance and kept
highs in the upper 60s far north to the mid 70s far south, where the
cloud cover may be thinner.
Byrd
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 410 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2015
Primary forecast concerns for tonight and into Monday remain focused
on how to handle the precipitation threat during this time period.
All of the 00z synoptic solutions...as well as the latest available
hi-res output...are continuing earlier trends depicting an
agonizingly slow southeast push of the showers and thunderstorms
overnight tonight. Initially the delay seems to be the result of
the residually dry low level air, but once the moisture does arrive
most of the lift is primarily focused over northwest sections of the
CWA...due to shortwave energy and (by late tonight) forcing along
cold front. Given the good agreement in the solutions I`ve tried to
"think" slow with the progression of PoPs into our southeast
counties, but over NW sections of the FA forecast will push PoPs
into the categorical range by late tonight due the plentiful
moisture in this area as well as the aforementioned lifting
mechanisms, and low level jet advecting unstable air into this area.
Can`t totally rule out a threat of some hail with the overnight
storms, but with the best instability remaining over the Plains the
Day 1 SWO depiction that keeps the primary severe weather threat
west of our CWA looks good.
Precipitation chances will be pushing southeast on Monday with the
cold front, and by afternoon it would appear the only rain threat
left in our CWA will be confined to our far southeast counties.
Placement of PoPs during the morning a bit of a question mark as
there is some uncertainly on how fast the band of showers and storms
over northwest sections of the CWA will wind down during the predawn
hours, but for now will stay fairly close to going trends which has
the northern edge of the morning rain near a KPPQ-KJEF line.
With cold front dropping south of the FA, and with surface ridge
pushing into the region in the front`s wake, dry forecast still
looks good for Monday night and into Tuesday. However, threat of
wet weather will return Tuesday night and Wednesday as remnants of
upper low meanders north-northeast from the southern Plains. For
now, have maintained chance PoPs with this system.
Overall, no big AMS changes appear to be in the offing through
midweek so temperatures should be near mid-April averages, with
temperature specifics largely driven by cloud cover.
As the remnants of the upper low lifts into the upper Midwest by
Wednesday evening, upper level low is forecast to develop over the
southern Rockies, with both the GFS and ECMWF eventually cutting
the his low off from the westerlies. In spite of the fact that the
stronger westerly flow (and dynamics) will become established
primarily north of our area, there are suggestions of weak
shortwaves ejecting from the upper low. So, will continue chance
PoPs over most of the CWA for the Thu-Sat time frame, with near
seasonal temperatures.
Truett
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 120 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2015
Other than the big wind gust behind this decaying complex of
showers at KCOU a few minutes ago, think things should remain
pretty tranquil untl the cold front arrives later tonight. Have a
period of showers with the front as convection that develops well
to our northwest should be decaying as it progresses south
tonight into Monday morning.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR conditions expected as rain activity to the west continues to
decay as it moves into dry low level air. Expect a cold front to
approach St. Louis around 12Z and there is a threat of some
showers along it. Wind to veer from southeast to south and then
switch to the northwest behind the front.
CVKING
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1220 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2015
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1210 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015
Morning convection exiting eastern CWA faster with partial clearing
following. Strong subsidence on back edge of retreating precipitation
shield resulted in a wake low and winds gusting briefly to 45 mph
with the end of the showers. Have adjusted temperatures down but
western CWA should be able to recover close to 70. Have removed
mention of afternoon precipitation due to stabilizing effect from
morning convective complex, except for the far southeastern counties
where it should end shortly.
Next question is how soon to bring convection back into the CWA. Both
the 12z NAM and trend of HRRR suggest pre-frontal convection could form
very late this afternoon or early evening from south central into
central KS where instability will be maximized and head east. Will
assess other global models before making any significant changes to
tonight`s forecast but seems reasonable we could get a batch of
convection prior to the arrival of the cold front produced
convection. That activity could produce significant rainfall tonight.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2015
Wave of showers and embedded storms over the Plains this morning is
associated with a 35-knot low-level jet and an elevated warm front
around 850 hPa. This activity will likely maintain or even increase
its areal coverage through the morning as the isentropic ascent that
is driving it pushes into western MO around 9 or 10 AM. Storms over
central KS have been somewhat robust early this morning with updrafts
capable of producing penny- to nickel-size hail. This activity has
developed in an area where MUCAPE values are approaching 1000 J/kg,
and this instability will be quite a bit weaker by the time storms
reach the state line. So these storms should weaken by the time they
reach our area later this morning but it wouldn`t be at all
surprising to see some pea- size hail.
Still expect another round of thunderstorms to develop later this
evening as a cold front moves in from the north. It`s looking
increasingly likely that clouds will stick around for much of the
afternoon, so temperatures may struggle to reach 70 degrees which
would keep CAPE values limited to 1500 J/kg or less. This wouldn`t
be particularly supportive of severe storms as the front moves
through after 00Z, especially with shear weakening markedly after
dark. Therefore while a severe storm or two can`t be ruled out, any
hail or damaging wind should be fairly isolated in nature and
confined mostly to far northeast KS and northwest MO in the 6 PM to
10 PM time frame. Decreasing instability after this time would
suggest storms will weaken quite a bit as they approach the I-70
corridor toward midnight. If storms are somehow able to develop ahead
of the main front around or before 00Z, then CAPE/shear profiles over
northwest MO at that time would be more supportive of severe storms.
While there have been a few indications that a pre-frontal surface
trough could do this, the most recent model runs keep storms from
developing until the main front moves through after 00Z and thus
keeping the severe threat low.
Monday and most of Tuesday will see dry weather and seasonable
temperatures followed by a wetter pattern for the remainder of the
week. Showers could return to the region as early as Tuesday evening
when a weak upper wave will drift northeast from the Gulf. More
widespread showers and perhaps thunderstorms are possible later in
the week when models have come into better agreement that a closed
upper low will drift into the area. The inherent low predictability
of such closed lows will make it difficult to pinpoint timing and
location of this precipitation for a few more days.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 639 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2015
Rain and embedded thunderstorms will overspread the KC area over the
next few hours and taper off by 9 or 10 AM. Highest threat for
thunderstorms through this time will be the southern half of the KC
area and points south. Thunderstorms should weaken as precipitation
spreads into central and north central MO later this morning,
becoming mainly just rain.
A break in the activity is expected for much of the afternoon,
followed by another round of thunderstorms along a cold front late
this evening. A few storms later this evening could be strong with
hail and gusty winds. Went with VC wording this period due to a bit
of uncertainty with coverage, but several indications are that this
activity should take the form of a broken line of storms.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
310 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015
COLD FRONT ENTERING ERN FCST AREA ATTM NR A
WARROAD...BAGLEY...TO ELBOW LAKE LINE. SATELLITE SHOWS SOME BEST
CU DEVELOPMENT JUST EAST OF FCST AREA FROM NORTH OF AITKIN MN
THROUGH BRAINERD TO BENSON MN THEN INTO WATERTOWN AREA OF SD. THUS
ANY CONVECTION MAY INDEED FIRE EAST OF THE FCST AREA. WILL WAIT
AND SEE IF WORTH PULLING POPS IN FAR EASTERN FCST AREA FOR NEXT
FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER SASKATCHEWAN WITH VORT MAX OVER
NW/NCNTRL ND. LEADING EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM PRODUCING A NARROW BAND
OF SHOWERS. 0.02 OCCURRED IN DEVILS LAKE. HRRR CONTINUES TO HAVE A
FEW SHOWERS MOVING EAST- NORTHEAST BUT WEAKENING A BIT. WILL
MAINTAIN ISOLD -SHRA WORDING THRU 00Z- 01Z IN NRN VALLEY.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THE COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOC WITH
500 MB TROUGH DEVELOPING A FEW SHOWERS IN WRN ND INTO SRN SASK/NE
MONTANA. FEEL THESE ARE HEAT DRIVEN AND WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVE.
THUS FOR THE TIME BEING KEPT POPS OUT OF DVL BASIN THOUGH NAM DOES
HAVE A FEW SHOWERS PSBL INTO NE ND THIS EVE WITH THE COLD POOL
ALOFT.
COLD POOL ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO NW MN MONDAY MORNING AND OVER NORTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND LAKE OF THE WOODS ONTARIO REGION MIDDAY-EARL
AFTN MONDAY. VIA DLH CHAT...WILL INCLUDE A LOW POP FOR SUN DRIVEN
SHOWERS IN LAKE OF THE WOODS-RED LAKE REGION IN THE 17Z-22Z
PERIOD. OTHERWISE SOME CUMULUS LIKELY BUT A GOOD DEAL OF SUN TOO.
QUITE WINDY ON MONDAY WITH WEST WINDS AND VERY DRY AIRMASS MOVING.
THIS CAUSES FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WHICH ARE ADDRESSED IN FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION SECTION. WINDS MAY WELL BE IN ADVISORY CRITERIA
FOR A TIME ESP DVL BASIN. WILL ALLOW MID SHIFT TO SORT OUT ANY
FIRE/WIND HEADLINES. FOR THE AFTN WINDS IN THE GRIDS DID GO WITH
HIGHER MAV MOS WINDS VS MODEL SUPERBLEND.
WINDS DIMINISH QUICKLY MON EVE AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STARTS TO
MOVE IN. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ON TUESDAY WITH RETURN SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW SETTING UP OVER ERN ND. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE RRV/ERN ND AS WARMING OCCURS IN THE
SFC-850 MB LEVEL OUT AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM ENTERING THE HIGH
PLAINS. DEW PTS MAY BE HIGHER BUT WITH HIGHER TEMPS EXPECT A DAY
WITH LOW RH VALUES ONCE AGAIN AND LIKELY CRITICAL FIRE WX
CONDITIONS. TUES NIGHT WILL SEE LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA AND A
MILD NIGHT. WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY. MODELS HAVE SLOWED SYSTEM DOWN
AND CONTINUED WITH IDEA OF A PRETTY MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM. ANY
PRECIP CONFINED TO JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WILL BE MORE WED NIGHT.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...ZONAL UPPER FLOW PATTERN
OVER SRN CANADA WILL BRING A MINOR SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC
TROUGH ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN HALF OF CWA AND SRN MB EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SCT SHRA WED NIGHT. MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE ALTHOUGH GFS A TAD FURTHER
NORTH. NEXT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN CANADA ON FRIDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE FOR MORE LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG INTL BORDER...HOWEVER NOT MUCH
MOISTURE AS FLUX OF PACIFIC MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH AND CONVECTION
OVER SRN US CUTS OFF ANY GULF MOISTURE. SW RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER
SASK/MB WILL AND SFC HIGH OVER NORTHERN TIER WILL KEEP FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT DRY. CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCE ON LATITUDE OF NEXT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA...WITH GFS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MB AND
KEEPING CWA DRY WHEREAS ECMWF BRINGS SFC LOW ALONG INTL BORDER.
ALL BLEND REPRESENTING ECMWF POSSIBILITY AND YIELDING CHANCE POPS
FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015
SFC TROUGH HAS MOVED MOVING THROUGH THE RRV AT TIME OF TAF
ISSUANCE...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NW AT GFK AND SW BECMG NW AT FAR
OVER NEXT 45 MIN TO HOUR. WINDS IN THE DVL REGION EXPECTED TO BECOME
QUITE WINDY FROM WNW BY MID AFTN...SUBSIDING SOME OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
WINDS TO SHIFT TO NW AT TVF/BJI BY MID AFTN.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF MAINLY SE ND/S RRV AS WEST OR NORTHWEST WINDS
GUST AT TIMES UP TO 30 MPH AMIDST DRY SURFACE AIR BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE START OF
THE WEEK. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. A DEEPENING MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER UP TO NEAR
700 MB WILL HELP TRANSFER HIGHER WIND GUSTS (UP TO 40 MPH) DOWN TO
THE SURFACE...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH. WITH THE AID OF THE
DEEP VERTICAL MIXING AND AN ALREADY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...RH
SHOULD FALL TO 20 PERCENT OR LOWER IN MANY AREAS. GIVEN THAT FUELS
REMAIN VERY DRY...THIS COMBINATION OF FACTORS MAY LEAD TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY IS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. A SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO BREEZY/GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. WITH
WARMER TEMPS...RH MAY FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT AGAIN.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER
AVIATION...RIDDLE
FIRE WEATHER...MAKOWSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
412 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)
Band of strong thunderstorms will likely move quickly east through
West Central Texas this evening. The storms moving through the Big
Bend and western Permian Basin at 3 PM CDT. With strong lift ahead
an upper low near El Paso, the short range models, including the
Texas Tech WRF and the HRRR indicate the line of storms to move into
Crockett County 5-6 PM...along a Sweetwater to San Angelo to Sonora
line around 8 PM...and an Abilene to Junction line 9-10 PM CDT.
There is the potential for a severe thunderstorm or two, as the SPC
mesoanalysis RUC indicated between 2000-3000 J/KG over the region.
The mostly likely impact however will be wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph
along the initial line of storms. SPC Day 1 Outlook has marginal
potential for severe storms for areas south of I-20 with a slight
risk just south of West Central Texas. This looks good as GFS 0-6 KM
shear was 20-35 KTS with the highest values along the I-10 corridor.
Rain chances diminish after midnight as the storm complex moves east.
West Central is somewhat dry-slotted Monday, at least south of the
I-20 corridor as the upper low moves slowly through. A weak cold
front will push through the Big Country late morning and afternoon,
bringing the the best chances of storms to the north. There is a
marginal potential for severe storms, but potential is somewhat
limited with lower GFS SB CAPES of 500 to 1500 mainly in northern
and eastern sections.
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
An interesting weather pattern is setting up for much of the week.
An upper-level low will be located over eastern New Mexico/western
parts of the Panhandle tomorrow evening, with a cold front dropping
south through the Big Country, and a dryline extending south through
western parts of the area (roughly along a Sweetwater to Sonora
line). Showers and thunderstorms will develop north of the front, as
south to southwest flow aloft maintains good isotropic ascent.
Additionally, a few showers or thunderstorms may develop in the warm
sector south of the front and ahead of the dryline. Isolated severe
thunderstorms may develop in this area, with locally heavy rain also
possible.
As the system departs the area Tuesday into Wednesday, drier air
will move back into the region. This will be short-lived however, as
another strong shortwave trough develops across the Inter-mountain
West, resulting in dryline development across western parts of the
Panhandle and West Texas Wednesday night/Thursday. Moisture will
again build across the area, with showers and thunderstorms possible
during this time period. As this next system departs the area Friday
and Saturday, dry air will move back into the region, with sunny
skies and warm temperatures expected.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 58 77 53 70 50 / 70 50 60 20 10
San Angelo 58 84 54 73 52 / 60 20 30 10 10
Junction 60 82 55 76 53 / 60 20 20 10 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
04/Doll
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1258 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2015
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
Band of showers and thundestorms will move in from the west this
evening as an upper low approaches. Ceilings temporarily may become
MVFR with thunderstorm activity. After the storms move east, MVFR
ceilings may again develop, mainly between 6Z and 12Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2015/
AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
MVFR to IFR ceilings will continue at all sites this morning, with
VFR ceilings returning by late morning or early afternoon. Showers
and thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon and evening
at all sites, but confidence in timing and coverage remains low,
so only VCTS groups were included. Most showers and thunderstorms
should be east of the TAF sites by 06z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2015/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
The main concern through the next 24 hours is the potential for
showers and thunderstorms as an upper level low approaches from
the west. An upper level low is currently centered across northern
Baja California and is forecast to approach far West Texas this
evening. PoPs for today were reduced across much of the area, as
most of the upper level lift associated with the low will not
overspread the area until late this afternoon and overnight.
Still, isolated to scattered showers will be possible this
afternoon, mainly across the southern and western parts of the
forecast area. Highs today will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Overnight, the chance of showers and thunderstorms will increase
as the upper level approaches and upper level lift overspreads
West Central Texas. Some uncertainty remains on the extent of
precipitation overnight, with some indications that parts of the
area may get dry slotted, mainly across the northern Edwards
Plateau and possibly parts of the Concho Valley. PoPs were lowered
slightly, ranging from chance across the northern Edwards Plateau
and Concho Valley, to likely across the northern Big Country and
northwest Hill Country. Latest runs of the HRRR are optimistic in
a large area of showers and thunderstorms approaching our western
counties by late afternoon/early evening, but am reluctant to go
too high on PoPs at this time. The main threat with the convection
looks to be locally heavy rainfall and dangerous cloud to ground
lightning. Rain chances will quickly decrease from southwest to
northeast during the early morning hours Monday. Overnight lows
will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Forecast challenges will be rain chances mainly Monday/Monday
night, and then again later in the week.
By Monday, the upper low over the Baja Peninsula this morning will
be moving into the southeastern NM/west Texas area. At the same
time, and cold front will be moving south through the Texas
Panhandle and western Oklahoma. The combination of these two
synoptic features will result in showers and thunderstorms
developing mainly along and ahead of the cold front Monday.
Showers and thunderstorms are most likely along and north of a
Sterling City to Brownwood line in the vicinity of the cold front.
Exactly where the cold front progresses to by Monday afternoon is
still in question however. So, with the front in the area,
increasing deep layer shear, and moderate instability in place
along/ahead of the cold front, it isn`t out of the question that
some of the thunderstorms that do develop could strengthen to
severe levels Monday afternoon and evening, especially along the
cold front. Severe weather hazards would be limited mainly to
large hail and damaging winds if it occurs. PoP values go from
`likely` (60%) in the Big Country, to slight chance and chance
(20-30%) along the I-10 corridor, based on the cold front stalling
near the Sterling City/Brownwood line in the afternoon. Rain
chances continue into the evening hours, mainly for the northern
half of the CWA, with decreasing rain chances Tuesday as the upper
level low moves off to the northeast away from the area.
Southwest flow returns Tuesday night into Wednesday with generally
dry weather across the area.
The next chance for rain begins Wednesday night into Thursday as
another low drops south through the Rocky Mountains into the four
corners region, then turns east, and moves across the Texas
panhandle region into the southern plains. Have kept a slight
chance to chance in the forecast from Wednesday night through
Thursday night for this feature. However, with very dry air aloft
rotating to the east around the south side of the upper level low,
there is some concern that the best precipitation chances would be
pushed to the east of our area.
Have kept the generally dry forecast going for the area from
Friday into Saturday. However, the latest run of the ECMWF is now
stalling the upper level low near the four corners region through
this time period resulting in additional rain chances. Will have
to keep an eye on model trends concerning this change, and update
the forecast as needed.
20
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 59 75 55 72 51 / 50 60 50 20 10
San Angelo 58 79 55 75 53 / 50 40 20 10 10
Junction 60 79 56 78 55 / 60 30 20 10 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
4
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
325 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
INITIAL MORE COMPACT VORT HEADING ENE THROUGH ERN IA/NRN IL. SHOWS
UP WELL ON WATER VAPOR/RUC COMBO WITH DECENT AMOUNT OF ENHANCEMENT
ON IR IMAGERY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE
MAIN TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. HRRR BRINGS LIGHT QPF INTO
THE SRN CWA THIS EVENING AND WILL HAVE SOME POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. WAS GOING TO GO WITH HIGHER HRRR/CONSSHORT POPS BUT PER COLLAB
WITH KLOT THE LINGERING DRY AIR AND 30 DEGREE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
MAY HAVE A SAY IN HOW FAR NE THIS INITIAL AREA IS ABLE TO ADVANCE.
HAVE NOW GONE AHEAD AND BOOSTED POPS FURTHER IN THE SOUTHWEST CWA AS
PRECIP SPREADING IN AND KDBQ REPORTING LIGHT RAIN. HIGHER DEWS
LIKELY TO ADVECT NEWD WITH TIME. NEXT FOCUS WILL BE PRECIP WITH
PRIMARY UPPER WAVE AND LOW LEVEL TROUGH. THIS IS STILL LARGELY ON
TRACK TO SWEEP THROUGH LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY IN THE FAR
EAST. ELEVATED CAPE IS RATHER MARGINAL BUT STILL SOME SO OPTED TO
LEAVE MENTION OF THUNDER. TEMPS TO STAY MILD OVERNIGHT WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER.
MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
SYSTEM PULLS EAST EARLY MONDAY WITH MAIN STORY BEING THE DRY AND
GUSTY WESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP. 925 TEMPS SUPPORT TEMPS INTO THE
60S SO NOT MUCH CHANGE IN AIRMASS BEHIND DEPARTED TROUGH. ANY
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH SHOULD CLEAR OUT FAIRLY QUICK DURING
THE MORNING HOURS.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY WILL MOVE TO SRN
WI AND NRN IL BY 12Z TUE AND REACH LOWER MI BY 00Z WED. RIDGING
ALOFT WILL ENSUE DURING THIS PERIOD AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. A VERY DRY AIRMASS AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 60S AWAY FROM THE EASTERN ONE
THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE A LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED.
AN INCREASING ESELY FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR WED AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO THE EAST AND CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES OVER SE CO. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM TX TO THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY AND
MID MS RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z THU. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND MORE OF AN ELY FLOW WILL SUPPORT COOLER TEMPS ON WED ESPECIALLY
OVER ERN WI VIA THE COLD LAKE.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY WED NT AND THU BUT WILL ALSO BE SUFFICIENTLY
CLOSE TO SRN WI TO MAINTAIN CHANCES OF LGT RAIN. AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES FRI NT WITH A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED OVER SRN WI. LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH THESE FEATURES. HIGH PRESSURE TO THEN FOLLOW FOR SAT
WITH SLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING FOR SUNDAY AS UPPER
TROUGHING APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...COUPLE DIFFERENT FEATURES TO CONTEND WITH THIS
PERIOD. ONE ARRIVES THIS EVENING. COMPACT WAVE LIFTING ENE FROM ERN
IA. HRRR SUGGESTS SOME LIGHT RAIN COMES ACROSS LATE THIS
AFTN/EVE...THEN A BREAK BEFORE PLAINS TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH LATER
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WITH THIS
FEATURE. SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY. THEN GUSTY WEST WIND REGIME
TAKES HOLD MONDAY WITH MORNING CLEARING.
&&
.MARINE...NO CHANGE TO SMALL CRAFT HEADLINE. GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
WINDS AHEAD OF TROUGH...WITH A POTENTIAL LULL TONIGHT WITH TROUGH
PASSAGE TONIGHT...THEN WEST WINDS RAMP BACK UP ON MONDAY. HIGHEST
WAVE ACTION WILL SHIFT TOWARDS OPEN WATERS ON MONDAY WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GEHRING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1205 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS CENTRAL IA EARLY THIS MORNING AND ARE MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST AROUND 25 KTS. LATEST HRRR HAS PICKED UP ON THESE TRENDS
AND WILL FOLLOW ITS SOLUTION FOR THE MORNING HOURS...RESULTING IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST MN AND FAR WESTERN WI. SPC
MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWS NO INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WITH A
FEW REPORTED LIGHTNING STRIKES...WILL ADD ISOLATED THUNDER AS
WELL. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE MINIMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2015
CHALLENGES INCLUDE WIND AND TEMPERATURES TODAY...FOLLOWED BY
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES/TIMING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
12.00Z GLOBAL MODEL SUITE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT WILL FOLLOW
RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE FOR TIMING OF TONIGHT/S CONVECTION.
TODAY WILL BE WARM AND WINDY AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT THAT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE DAY ASSOCIATED WITH A LEADING SHORT-WAVE CURRENTLY
OVER NE/KS. SOME OF ITS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD
CLIP THE SOUTHERNMOST FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON
AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN MO/SOUTHERN IA...BUT THE REST OF
THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. 925 HPA TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND +12
CELSIUS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP LIMIT FULL
WARMING POTENTIAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 70S ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MN AND NORTHEAST IA IF MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS ARE REALIZED.
BIGGER CONCERN TODAY IS STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS. AFTERNOON BOUNDARY
LAYER DEEPENS TO BETWEEN 800 AND 850 HPA WITH ROUGHLY 35 TO 40 KTS
TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 20
TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. COULD SEE BRIEF WIND ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ACROSS WIND PRONE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST
IA...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY.
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND WILL ADVECT MOISTURE NORTHWARD...RESULTING
IN DEW POINT TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 40S AND KEEPING MINIMUM
RH VALUES 40 PERCENT OR HIGHER.
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH I-35 CORRIDOR BY 00Z TONIGHT AND THEN
SWEEP ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. STRONG WARMING IN THE 1-2 KM LAYER THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SQUASH ANY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION...BUT
MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW 200 TO 500 J/KG OF ELEVATED SKINNY CAPE. 0
TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KTS LATER THIS
EVENING...BUT MOST OF THIS IS IN THE LOWEST COUPLE KILOMETERS. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME...BUT COULD STILL SEE
SOME SMALL HAIL COMBINED WITH LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2015
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES QUICKLY INTO NE/IA FOR MONDAY...
KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG
NORTHERN FLANK. AS A RESULT...EXPECT BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND WITH
SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. IN
ADDITION...DRIER AIR MASS WILL ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO DROP
INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE.
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
OCCASIONAL SOUTHERLY BREEZES AS 500 HPA RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS
THE NATION/S MID-SECTION. DAILY HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
LOW PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A COUPLE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT-WAVES MOVE ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HOWEVER...WITH 500 HPA CLOSED LOW NOW
STALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NOT PHASING WITH NORTHERN
SYSTEMS...NOT LOOKING AT ANY PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN. IN FACT...
INSTABILITY HAS ALL BUT DISAPPEARED...SO REMOVED ANY THUNDER
MENTION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. EXPECT A RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS BY THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015
VFR CONDITIONS THRU THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT DUE IN THIS EVENING. CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON LOOKING TO BE SCT
LCL BKN 8K-10K FT...WITH SOUTH WINDS 15-23KT G26-32KT. WINDS
DIMINISH WITH SUNSET AND CLOUD DECKS LOWER AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
THIS EVENING. BAND OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING SOUTHEAST
MN AT MID EVENING...BUT WHAT LIMITED INSTABILITY THERE IS LOOKS TO
BE WANING AT THE SHRA/TSRA WOULD MOVE INTO/ACROSS THE TAF SITES.
ONLY CARRIED A VCTS FROM 04-06Z AT KRST AND REMOVED MENTION OF
TSRA/CB FROM KLSE. PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS LOOKS TO ACCOMPANY THE BAND
OF PRECIP ACROSS THE TAF SITES...WITH THIS QUICKLY IMPROVING ONCE
THE FRONT PASSES...AROUND 06Z AT KRST AND 08Z AT KLSE.
GOOD VFR/SKC THEN EXPECTED FOR LATE TONIGHT/MON MORNING AS DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. TIGHTER GRADIENT AGAIN MON...
WITH BRISK/GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING AFTER 14-15Z.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......ROGERS
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM....ROGERS
AVIATION.....RRS