Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/11/15

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

 151 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS
ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE TODAY WITH A
STEADIER RAINFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT. A MILDER AIR MASS WILL BE
ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...THE PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS
DIMINISHED ACROSS THE FCST AREA. IT IS STILL A VERY COOL AND DAMP
AIR MASS WITH TEMPS RUNNING ABOUT 15 T0 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE WAS KEPT IN THE FCST AREA WRN NEW ENGLAND AND
THE SRN DACKS IN THE MID TO LATE PM. THE SPS FOR SPOTTY FREEZING
DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL END AT 2 PM.


A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN LIFTING N/NE FROM OH AND THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 30S TO L40S FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...AND STEADY OF
SLOWLY RISE INTO TONIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR HAS THE NEXT BATCH OF
PCPN MOVING IN BETWEEN 00Z-03Z WITH THE SHORT-WAVE IN THE SW FLOW
AND THE STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT QUICKLY LIFTS N/NE FROM THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION AND PA ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND AS THE
CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS STORM WILL
INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEUTRAL TO
NEGATIVELY TILTED. EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN AS MOIST LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES WITH DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT. THERE MAY BE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER AROUND WEST AND SOUTH OF ALBANY AS THE SHOWALTER VALUES
FALLING CLOSE TO 0C TO -1C. LOWS THU NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
U30S TO L40S ACROSS MOST THE REGION. SOME MELTING OF THE SNOW
PACK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS EXPECTED. TOTAL RAIN
AMOUNTS LATE THU PM INTO FRI MORNING WILL BE IN THE QUARTER TO
THREE QUARTERS INCH RANGE WITH THE HIGHER TALLIES OVER THE SRN
DACKS.

FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
MORNING AND INTO THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOWALTER VALUES DROP
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION TO VALUES AROUND 0C. THIS ALONG
WITH COLLABORATION WITH SPC...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MENTION OF
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST/GRIDS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND M60S IN
MOST OF THE VALLEY AREAS /A FEW U60S OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY/...AND M50S TO L60S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...COLD ADVECTION OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WITH PRETTY GOOD SUBSIDENCE TO END MOST OF THE PCPN FOR THE FCST
AREA...THOUGH A FEW UPSLOPE RAIN TO SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE WRN DACKS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE M30S TO L40S IN MOST LOCATIONS
WITH A FEW U20S TO L30S OVER THE SRN DACKS.

SATURDAY...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION. THE BEST MOISTURE PROFILES AND FAVORABLE
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE DACKS WHERE THE POPS WILL
BE HIGHER THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE TERRAIN LOCATIONS. A BRISK DAY
IS EXPECTED TOO AS SURFACE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT AND MIXING
LAYER HEIGHTS SUGGEST WE MAY TAP INTO THE MID-UPR 30KTS. AS THE
H850 TEMPS FALL BACK BELOW 0C...THIS TOO WILL BE REFLECTIVE WITH
FORECAST SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH MAINLY 40S ACROSS THE TERRAIN
AND LOWER HALF OF THE 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. THIS WOULD BE A
COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS WE ARE FAST APPROACHING THE MIDDLE
OF THE MONTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION IS MORE UNCERTAIN...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO FAVOR NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL AMTS.

STARTING WITH SUNDAY...RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY SUNNY
SKIES...WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST
VALLEYS...WITH 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS MAY
BE A BIT BRISK FROM THE WEST...ESP IN THE MORNING.

A GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE FOR MON-TUE
     WITH A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE
REGION MON NT-EARLY TUE. THIS MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS FOR MON
AFTERNOON-NIGHT...ESP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS
RATHER PROGRESSIVE...SO EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER TO RETURN BY
TUESDAY.

FOR LATE TUE-THU...MODELS EXHIBIT A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL U.S...AND
LINGERING TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CANADA. THE BULK OF THE
00Z/09 GUIDANCE SEEMS TO FAVOR ENOUGH RIDGING BETWEEN THESE FEATURES
TO ALLOW FOR GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS FROM LATE TUE INTO AT LEAST
MUCH OF WED. HOWEVER...SOME 00Z/09 GEFS MEMBERS SEEM TO ALLOW FOR A
WEAKER RIDGE AND MORE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EJECTING EAST...INCREASING
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. AT THIS TIME...HAVE SIDED ON THE DRIER SIDE
THROUGH WED WITH JUST SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME ENERGY/MOISTURE
APPROACHES A BIT FASTER FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT DAYTIME MAXES TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN
VALLEYS...AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY
OF EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR IN VALLEY AREAS ASSUMING DEEPER
MIXING OCCURS. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S TO LOWER
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
A RETURN TO MVFR/IFR FLYING CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH RAIN ALONG A
WARM FRONT.

THIS AFTERNOON...MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES WITH
PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. AFTER 20Z...CEILINGS MAY
BRIEFLY RISE TO VFR...BUT GIVEN STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE
TRAPPING MOISTURE AND LIMITING MIXING...HAVE SIDED WITH MVFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 00Z. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST/SOUTHEAST
GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE AFTER
00Z AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AND AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES AT THE TAF SITES WITH OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE BETWEEN
00Z-03Z...WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR POSSIBLE IFR CEILINGS AT KPSF.

BY 03Z...EXPECT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES AND CONTINUE
THROUGH 12Z...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER
SHOWERS. THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES...BUT HAVE LEFT
MENTION OUT OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS TIME. HAVE LOWERED CEILINGS AT THE TAF SITES TO IFR BEGINNING
AT 03Z...WITH BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED.

RAIN SHOULD BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE AFTER 12Z AND LINGER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH
FLYING CONDITIONS IMPROVING SLIGHTLY TO MVFR...WITH IFR CEILINGS
PERSISTING UNTIL 14Z AT KPSF. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 10
KNOTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF AROUND 20 KNOTS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
STRONG SHOWER ACTIVITY.

HAVE INCLUDED LLWS AT KALB...KGFL AND KPOU FROM 06Z-12Z WITH AROUND
40 KNOTS OF WIND AROUND 2000 FT ABOVE A STRONG SURFACE-BASED
INVERSION. HAVE LEFT LLWS OUT OF KPSF FOR NOW AS SLIGHTLY BETTER
MIXING MAY OCCUR DUE TO THE TAF SITE BEING LOCATED NEAR THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK
DUE TO EXPECTED WET AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AND MAINLY COOL
WEATHER. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM LATER SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK NORTH
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A WARMUP WITH A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN AND EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.

SNOW MELT COMBINING WITH PRECIPITATION THE PAST 24 HOURS RESULTED
IN THE MOHAWK RIVER EXPERIENCING WITHIN BANK RISES OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...A MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY...WHICH IS WHEN MORE RAPID SNOW MELT IS EXPECTED. LATEST
MMEFS /ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE/ INDICATES RIVER LEVELS WILL RISE BY
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...WITH SEVERAL POINTS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING
ACTION STAGE BUT NO FLOODING AT THIS TIME. ONLY THE SACANDAGA
RIVER AT HOPE HAS A LOW PROBABILITY FORECAST TO REACH MINOR FLOOD
STAGE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER RISES
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NONE THE NERFC FORECASTS HAVE ANY
POINTS REACHING FLOOD STAGE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TOTAL QPF THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT MAY EXCEED A HALF AN INCH
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS /ADIRONDACK REGION/.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL/JPV
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

 130 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS
ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE TODAY WITH A
STEADIER RAINFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT. A MILDER AIR MASS WILL BE
ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...THE PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS
DIMINISHED ACROSS THE FCST AREA. IT IS STILL A VERY COOL AND DAMP
AIR MASS WITH TEMPS RUNNING ABOUT 15 T0 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE WAS KEPT IN THE FCST AREA WRN NEW ENGLAND AND
THE SRN DACKS IN THE MID TO LATE PM. THE SPS FOR SPOTTY FREEZING
DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL END AT 2 PM.


A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN LIFTING N/NE FROM OH AND THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 30S TO L40S FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...AND STEADY OF
SLOWLY RISE INTO TONIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR HAS THE NEXT BATCH OF
PCPN MOVING IN BETWEEN 00Z-03Z WITH THE SHORT-WAVE IN THE SW FLOW
AND THE STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT QUICKLY LIFTS N/NE FROM THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION AND PA ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND AS THE
CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS STORM WILL
INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEUTRAL TO
NEGATIVELY TILTED. EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN AS MOIST LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES WITH DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT. THERE MAY BE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER AROUND WEST AND SOUTH OF ALBANY AS THE SHOWALTER VALUES
FALLING CLOSE TO 0C TO -1C. LOWS THU NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
U30S TO L40S ACROSS MOST THE REGION. SOME MELTING OF THE SNOW
PACK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS EXPECTED. TOTAL RAIN
AMOUNTS LATE THU PM INTO FRI MORNING WILL BE IN THE QUARTER TO
THREE QUARTERS INCH RANGE WITH THE HIGHER TALLIES OVER THE SRN
DACKS.

FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
MORNING AND INTO THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOWALTER VALUES DROP
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION TO VALUES AROUND 0C. THIS ALONG
WITH COLLABORATION WITH SPC...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MENTION OF
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST/GRIDS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND M60S IN
MOST OF THE VALLEY AREAS /A FEW U60S OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY/...AND M50S TO L60S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...COLD ADVECTION OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WITH PRETTY GOOD SUBSIDENCE TO END MOST OF THE PCPN FOR THE FCST
AREA...THOUGH A FEW UPSLOPE RAIN TO SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE WRN DACKS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE M30S TO L40S IN MOST LOCATIONS
WITH A FEW U20S TO L30S OVER THE SRN DACKS.

SATURDAY...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION. THE BEST MOISTURE PROFILES AND FAVORABLE
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE DACKS WHERE THE POPS WILL
BE HIGHER THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE TERRAIN LOCATIONS. A BRISK DAY
IS EXPECTED TOO AS SURFACE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT AND MIXING
LAYER HEIGHTS SUGGEST WE MAY TAP INTO THE MID-UPR 30KTS. AS THE
H850 TEMPS FALL BACK BELOW 0C...THIS TOO WILL BE REFLECTIVE WITH
FORECAST SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH MAINLY 40S ACROSS THE TERRAIN
AND LOWER HALF OF THE 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. THIS WOULD BE A
COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS WE ARE FAST APPROACHING THE MIDDLE
OF THE MONTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION IS MORE UNCERTAIN...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO FAVOR NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL AMTS.

STARTING WITH SUNDAY...RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY SUNNY
SKIES...WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST
VALLEYS...WITH 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS MAY
BE A BIT BRISK FROM THE WEST...ESP IN THE MORNING.

A GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE FOR MON-TUE
     WITH A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE
REGION MON NT-EARLY TUE. THIS MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS FOR MON
AFTERNOON-NIGHT...ESP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS
RATHER PROGRESSIVE...SO EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER TO RETURN BY
TUESDAY.

FOR LATE TUE-THU...MODELS EXHIBIT A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL U.S...AND
LINGERING TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CANADA. THE BULK OF THE
00Z/09 GUIDANCE SEEMS TO FAVOR ENOUGH RIDGING BETWEEN THESE FEATURES
TO ALLOW FOR GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS FROM LATE TUE INTO AT LEAST
MUCH OF WED. HOWEVER...SOME 00Z/09 GEFS MEMBERS SEEM TO ALLOW FOR A
WEAKER RIDGE AND MORE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EJECTING EAST...INCREASING
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. AT THIS TIME...HAVE SIDED ON THE DRIER SIDE
THROUGH WED WITH JUST SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME ENERGY/MOISTURE
APPROACHES A BIT FASTER FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT DAYTIME MAXES TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN
VALLEYS...AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY
OF EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR IN VALLEY AREAS ASSUMING DEEPER
MIXING OCCURS. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S TO LOWER
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE...WITH SPOTTY AREAS OF DRIZZLE. SOME POCKETS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 14Z/THU AT KPSF.

FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY MVFR THROUGH MOST OF TODAY.
HOWEVER...IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL LIKELY LINGER AT KALB THROUGH AROUND
15Z-17Z/THU. OCCASIONAL IFR...ESP FOR CIGS...AT KPSF THROUGH
AROUND 14Z/THU. ADDITIONAL...MORE WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IF ANY
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OTHER THAN DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF TODAY. THEN...RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY AFTER 00Z/THU...WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED INTO MUCH OF TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL THEN TREND INTO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST TODAY AND INCREASE
TO 8-12 KT AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER
GUSTS OF UP TO 20-25 KT COULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK
DUE TO EXPECTED WET AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AND MAINLY COOL
WEATHER. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM LATER SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK NORTH
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A WARMUP WITH A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN AND EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.

SNOW MELT COMBINING WITH PRECIPITATION THE PAST 24 HOURS RESULTED
IN THE MOHAWK RIVER EXPERIENCING WITHIN BANK RISES OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...A MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY...WHICH IS WHEN MORE RAPID SNOW MELT IS EXPECTED. LATEST
MMEFS /ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE/ INDICATES RIVER LEVELS WILL RISE BY
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...WITH SEVERAL POINTS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING
ACTION STAGE BUT NO FLOODING AT THIS TIME. ONLY THE SACANDAGA
RIVER AT HOPE HAS A LOW PROBABILITY FORECAST TO REACH MINOR FLOOD
STAGE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER RISES
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NONE THE NERFC FORECASTS HAVE ANY
POINTS REACHING FLOOD STAGE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TOTAL QPF THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT MAY EXCEED A HALF AN INCH
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS /ADIRONDACK REGION/.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL/JPV
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

 925 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER
THE WEEKEND AND MOVE OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD IN
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM EASTERN NEW YORK, ACROSS EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA TO CENTRAL VIRGINIA AROUND 900 PM. THE BOUNDARY WILL
MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE BALANCE OF THE
EVENING HOURS.

IT IS NOT A CLEAN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE AIR THAT IS BEING
DISPLACED IN MUCH OF OUR REGION IS COOLER THAN THE AIR BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. REGARDLESS, WE ARE EXPECTING CLEARING AND A SHIFT TO A
WEST NORTHWEST WIND THROUGHOUT ALL OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA,
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY BY MIDNIGHT.

THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OUT TO SEA. WE
WILL MENTION THEM IN THE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS UNTIL ABOUT
MIDNIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE.

TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE 50S IN OUR REGION AT 900 PM, WITH
SOME READINGS IN THE 60S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. WE ANTICIPATE THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ONLY IN THE SPRING IN THE NORTHEAST CAN ONE TYPE: NOW THAT THE
COLD FRONT HAS PASSED, A WARMER DAY IS IN STORE. THIS WILL BE TRUE
FOR THE NORTHWEST PART OF OUR CWA. THE SERN PART OF OUR CWA WILL
HAVE A COOLER DAY. BUT ALL SHOULD EXPERIENCE A BRISK NORTHWEST
FLOW AND SOME SUNSHINE. THERE WILL BE A SHORT WAVE TROF PASSING
ACROSS OUR CWA. CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL FORM AND COVERAGE MIGHT GET ON
THE CLOUDIER SIDE IN THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. PREDICTED MOISTURE AND HEIGHT SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE PCPN OR SPRINKLES.

SOUNDING FULL SUNS ARE SUGGESTING MAX TEMPS BLO STAT GUIDANCE,
BUT THIS HAS NOT WORKED WELL THIS SPRING IN NW FLOW REGIMES. WE
REMAINED CLOSE TO CONTINUITY AND 12Z STAT GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERVIEW...
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS THE NORTHEAST CONUS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST SUN NIGHT. THIS
IS FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITORY RIDGE CRESTING OVER THE AREA ON MON.
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE THEREAFTER BEGINNING AROUND 00Z TUE WITH
RESPECT TO /WRT/ TWO MAIN FEATURES...A S/WV TROUGH MOVING THRU THE
NORTHEAST CONUS AROUND 00Z WED AND A DEEPER LONG WAVE TROUGH
PROGGED INVOF THE MS VALLEY AROUND 00Z FRI. THE UNCERTAINTY WRT TO
THE NORTHEAST CONUS TROUGH IS DUE TO A BLOCKY PATTERN DEVELOPING
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS LEADS TO SPREAD IN
THE LOCATION OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...AND THUS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A COLD FROPA MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
MOREOVER...THE GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN TO SLOW THE FROPA...WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE PATTERN. THUS A MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST IS
IN THE CARDS FOR TUESDAY.

THEREAFTER...ATTENTION TURNS TO A LONG WAVE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING INVOF THE MS VALLEY BY 00Z FRI...WHILE A CUT-OFF LOW IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND. BOUNDING THESE
FEATURES...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE INVOF THE EAST
COAST. THE AMPLITUDE AND PLACEMENT OF THIS RIDGE... LARGELY
DEPENDENT ON THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES...IMPACTS OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER IN THE THU AND FRI TIME FRAME. THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST.

OVERALL...THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE ON MON NIGHT AND TUE
AND THEN AGAIN ON THU AND FRI. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND SEASONABLE LEVELS THRU THE ENTIRE LONG TERM.

DAILIES...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING IN THE NORMALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS. IF THE GRADIENT RELAXES ENOUGH SUNDAY AFTN... SEA-
BREEZES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST...KEEPING TEMPS COOLER.

SURFACE FLOW BECOMES S/SW MONDAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE IN
ADVANCE OF NEXT COOL FRONT IN THE OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS TO INCREASE A BIT IN WAA ADVECTION REGIME...BUT PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS TREND
AS WELL. MIXING TO 900 HPA YIELDS S/SW WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25
KNOTS PER MODEL SOUNDINGS.

COOL FRONT APPROACHES MON NIGHT AND IS PROGGED TO MOVE THRU THE
REGION ON TUE. THE FRONT WILL HAVE GULF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME FRAME...WITH THE GREATEST PRECIP COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA...WHERE THE BEST LIFTING MECHANISMS
COINCIDE. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS LIMITED...ESP WITH CURRENT COOL
FROPA TIMING EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH FAIR
WEATHER EXPECTED.

COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR THU AND FRI. BOTH THE
12Z/10 EURO AND GFS FEATURE HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST
CONUS AT 00Z THU...BUT BOTH MODELS THEN DIVERGE... WITH THE GFS
MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE EURO. FAVOR THE LESS PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION ATTM GIVEN THE BLOCKY UPSTREAM PATTERN. ATTM...IT APPEARS
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY/INVERTED TROUGH MAY TRY TO ESTABLISH ITSELF
INVOF THE MID ATL DURING THIS TIME FRAME...LEADING TO UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER INTO THE 03Z
TO 04Z TIME FRAME AT OUR TAF SITES AS A COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH OUR REGION. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF OUR TAF SITES.
CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
OFF THE COAST. VFR CONDITIONS AND A MAINLY CLEAR SKY ARE EXPECTED
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS IS FORECAST UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT PASSES. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST. A
NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 OR 25 KNOTS
IS ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT THRU MON...VFR CONDITIONS. PATCHY FOG MAY REDUCE
CEILINGS/VSBYS SUN AND MON AM.

MON NIGHT THRU TUE...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT.

TUE NIGHT THRU WED...VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OCEAN REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
TONIGHT. WE ARE NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT WINDS REACHING CRITERIA AND
MIXING NEITHER TONIGHT NOR ON SATURDAY WILL BE EFFICIENT AS AIR
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE HIGHER THAN THE WATER TEMPERATURES.
SEAS REMAIN AT CRITERIA AND WITH A SOUTHERLY SWELL CONTINUING INTO
TONIGHT, THEY SHOULD REMAIN AROUND OR ABOVE CRITERIA.

WE MIGHT NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXTENSION FOR THE SEAS ON
SATURDAY MORNING AND WE WILL REACCESS THE WIND MIXING POTENTIAL.
PREDICTED GUSTS FOR SATURDAY ARE AROUND 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT THRU MON...SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

MON NIGHT THRU TUE...WINDS AND SEAS MAY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA.

WED...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/IOVINO
MARINE...FRANCK/GIGI



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

 858 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST BY TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION AND CAUSE A WARM FRONT TO CROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
THE WEEKEND AND REMAIN INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW AND SERIES OF FRONTS
WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. WE ADDED SOME PATCHY
MORNING DRIZZLE MAINLY IN NJ BASED ON OBS AND RADAR RETURNS. WE
USED LATEST HRRR AND RAP TRENDS TO LOWER POPS THROUGH THE MID DAY
FOR THE REMNANT PCPN SOUTH AND OTHER PCPN TRYING TO ARRIVE FROM
THE WEST. AGREE WITH MID SHIFT TEMPS ARE GOING NOWHERE TODAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED FROM THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS BACK DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER EASTERN CANADA CONTINUES TO
RIDGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES.  WITH
THIS CAD PATTERN ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS HOLDING
STRONG, EXPECT TODAY TO BE PRETTY MUCH A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY:
CLOUDY AND COOL BUT SLIGHTLY LESS WET AND WINDY.

THE ONE CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING IS SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND
FREEZING FOG AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE POCONOS. BASED ON LATEST
MESONET OBSERVATIONS, TEMPS ARE MARGINALLY FREEZING (31-32F) ABOVE
1500 FT. ISSUED AN SPS FOR THESE AREAS TO COVER THE POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT ICING ON ELEVATED SURFACES. EXPECT LITTLE IMPACTS THOUGH WITH
PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING.

REMNANTS FROM A DECAYING MCS THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER VA WILL MOVE
EASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO
THE DELMARVA AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTHERN NJ BETWEEN 4-9 AM.
OTHERWISE, COVERAGE OF RAIN EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY WITH ORGANIZED LIFT AND INSTABILITY STILL WELL TO OUR WEST.

BASED ON VERIFICATION OF TEMPS YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT, FELT IT WAS
PRUDENT TO GO COLDER THAN STAT GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS TODAY. WE FAVORED
THE RAW OUTPUT FROM THE NCEP WRF ARW/NMM, WHICH GIVES US HIGHS IN
THE 40S (15-20F BELOW NORMAL).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ALOFT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR ALOFT INTO THE
REGION BUT THE SHALLOW LAYER OF COLD AIR TRAPPED IN THE LOWEST 1000
FT OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PREVENT THE WARM FRONT FROM MAKING IT INTO
OUR AREA. THEREFORE, CLOUDY, COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
INTO TONIGHT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR DRIZZLE TONIGHT
THAT IT DID LAST NIGHT WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
ABOVE THE CAD WEDGE. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT ON POTENTIAL
MCS DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE MIDWEST. THE
REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING A ROUND OR TWO OF SHOWERS TO OUR
REGION TONIGHT. THE WARM NOSE AROUND 900 MB STRENGTHENS LATE AND THE
00Z NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FORECASTS SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA TOWARD EARLY MORNING. OPTED TO
NOT PUT IN ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AS THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF CIN
FOR PARCELS TO OVERCOME, WHICH MAY INHIBIT CONVECTION GIVEN A LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT LIFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY/FRI NIGHT...THE RECENT ONSHORE FLOW OF COLD AND MOIST AIR
WILL DIMINISH AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IF THE LOW
CLOUDS DIMINISH FAST ENOUGH...IT COULD END UP BECOMING VERY WARM
AND HUMID. SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EARLY OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE SRN HALF OF OUR
CWA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR WEATHER FRIDAY.

SAT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY FAIR WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SAT...CRESTS OVER THE AREA SUN AND THEN MOVES
EAST MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 60S SAT/SUN AND CLOSER TO 70
MON.

TUE THRU WED...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE PLAINS HEADS
TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS APPROACH THE
AREA. WE WENT ALONG WITH THE WPC POPS FOR THESE PERIODS WITH
MOSTLY CHC POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MID APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE REGION REMAINS SOCKED IN LOW CLOUDS AND BR EARLY THIS MORNING.
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MOSTLY FROM CIGS THAT ARE IN IFR RANGE. SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY, EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR DURING THE DAY WITH
CIGS BETWEEN 1 AND 2 KFT AGL. THIS GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AT THE TERMINALS FROM NE TO SW BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP ACY AND POSSIBLY MIV IN IFR ALL DAY.

CIGS LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT, BECOMING IFR LATE THIS EVE AND POSSIBLY
LIFR OVERNIGHT. PERIODS OF RA, DZ AND FOG WILL LIKELY CAUSE VSBY
RESTRICTIONS.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE EXPECTED CIG
IMPROVEMENT TODAY AND DETERIORATION TONIGHT SO FUTURE TAF UPDATES
WILL PROVIDE REFINEMENT.

NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KT THIS MORNING WILL VEER OUT OF THE EAST
MIDDAY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST BY LATE TONIGHT.


OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...A TRANSITIONAL DAY WITH THE LOW CLOUDS
DEPARTING AND THEN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING. MVFR/IFR WITH
THE LOW CLOUDS EARLY AND THEN AGAIN LATE IN ANY TSTM.

SAT THRU MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA IN EFFECT FOR OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THERE ARE STILL A FEW GUSTS IN THE 25 KT RANGE ALONG THE NJ COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING BUT OVERALL ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN
DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE MORE WIDESPREAD HAZARD ON THE WATERS WILL
BE THE SEAS WITH WAVES BETWEEN 5 AND 8 FT THRU TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI/FRI NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
SAT...SCA CONDITIONS EARLY THEN SUB-SCA WINDS/SEAS.
SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MONDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

 922 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015

.DISCUSSION...LTST WV IMAGERY ALONG WITH SOUNDING DATA FROM XMR
CONFIRM AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT EXISTS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF PCPN
TODAY.  E-SE WINDS FROM THE SFC THROUGH 10KFT...COUPLED WITH E-
NE/INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW...WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW
IN LOWER PWAT AIR. LTST HRRR GUID SHOWS A FEW ECHOES LIKELY ASCD
WITH INLAND PROGRESSION OF MARINE CU LINES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME LOW TOPPED SPRINKLES MOVING ASHORE MAINLY FROM THE TREASURE CST
SWD. NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED FROM THIS ACTIVITY. THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS. SOME SCT BASES NR FL 040 REMAIN PSBL IN CU
LINES ALONG THE CST AND SOMEWHAT INLAND THROUGH THE AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...(PREVIOUS DISC) HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN FIRM CONTROL OF
LCL WX. ESE-SE WINDS 10-15KT WITH SEAS 3FT NEAR SHORE AND 4FT AWAY
FROM THE COAST.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

JP/FJ




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 1003 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

.SHORT TERM...
238 PM CDT

THROUGH SATURDAY...

VISIBLE IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
INDICATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN...HOWEVER
WITH A ROBUST MID-LVL VORT MAX PIVOTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST TOWARDS CENTRAL WISC...COUPLED WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES...CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC INDICATED RAIN SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN WISC...AND
SLIDING SOUTHEAST. REFLECTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND ITS POSSIBLE SOME
ISOLATED LIGHTNING WITH PEA SIZE HAIL...EXPECT THIS TO BE CONFINED
TO NORTH OF A ROCKFORD TO WAUKEGAN LINE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT WITH GOOD MIXING AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE...ALLOWING GUSTS TO FREQUENTLY BE TOUCHING 35 MPH. IT IS
POSSIBLE A FEW GUSTS COULD TOUCH 45 MPH BEFORE SUNSET. WILL GO WITH
A WIND ADVISORY THROUGH SUNSET FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA.

TROUGH AXIS WILL STEADLY PIVOT EAST THIS EVENING...ALLOWING SFC
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO SLIDE EAST OVERNIGHT AND BRING
WINDS DOWN. IN ADDITION THE DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY
ERODE...ALLOWING SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY EARLY SAT MORNING.
TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID/UPR 30S.

ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD SAT...ALLOWING MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES TO RULE MUCH OF SAT. WINDS WILL START OUT LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST BY SAT
AFTN/EVE...WINDS SHOULD START TO TURN WEST/SOUTHWEST. WITH THE LIGHT
GRADIENT AND LAND WARMING UP...A LAKE BREEZE WILL BE ABLE TO
DEVELOP. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW FAR INLAND BEFORE WINDS SHIFT
WEST/SOUTHWEST...WHICH COULD LIMIT THE INLAND PUSH OF A LAKE
BREEZZE. TEMPS SAT WILL PUSH INTO THE LOW 60S...LIKELY HOLDING IN
THE LOW/MID 50S CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN. IF THE LAKE BREEZE CAN PUSH
INLAND...TEMPS ALONG THE SHORELINE MAY DIP INTO THE MID 40S.

BEACHLER

&&

.LONG TERM...
238 PM CDT

SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

SFC RIDGING SHOULD LINGER SAT NGT/EARLY
SUN...HOLDING THE DRY CONDS UNTIL JUST AFT DAYBREAK SUN. 500MB
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL PUSH EAST TOWARDS THE
ROCKIES...WHICH WILL ALLOW FLOW IN THE MID-LVLS TO TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY. WITH THE SFC RIDGE BECOMING CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION SUN...LLVL MOISTURE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE AND STREAM NORTH FROM THE WESTERN GULF EARLY
SUN. IT IS POSSIBLE PRECIP MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL MID/LATE SUN
MORNING...HOWEVER FEEL THAT WITH THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW IN THE MID-
LVLS PRECID SHUD EASILY REACH THE FORECAST AREA SUN. A TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE PIVOTING EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL
AID IN BRINGING A SOME INSTABILITY/FORCING BACK TO THE REGION SUN.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STEADILY PIVOTING EAST SUN
NGT/MON...WITH YET ANOTHER SFC RIDGE PUSHING EAST AND ARRIVING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA BY TUE AND BRINGING DRY AIR TO THE CWFA. THEN
LATER IN THE WEEK ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH
THE NEXT CHC FOR PRECIP ARRIVING LATE NEXT WEEK. TEMPS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

BEACHLER

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...

* NONE.

KJB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING OVER THE EASTERN TERMINALS
AND THIS IS RESULTING IN MORE OF A NORTHWESTERLY WIND...WITH A
COUPLE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY ABATE THIS EVENING WITH SUNSET.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARDS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS
AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A LIGHTER WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND DURING THE DAY.
OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KJB

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...

* HIGH FOR ALL ELEMENTS.

KJB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

SUNDAY...CHC SHRA IN THE AFTN...TSRA LIKELY OVERNIGHT. GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS BCMG WEST OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...SCHC -SHRA EARLY. WEST WINDS BCMG NW.

TUESDAY...VFR. NORTH WINDS BCMG SOUTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY...VFR. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WED NIGHT. SOUTHEAST
WINDS BCMG SOUTH.

THURSDAY...CHC TSRA. SOUTH WINDS BCMG SOUTHWEST.

KJB

&&

.MARINE...
238 PM CDT

STRONG AND GUSTY WEST GALES WILL CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NEARSHORE...HOWEVER WITH THE STABILITY IN PLACE EXPECT THE FIRST
MILE OR TWO OF THE NEARSHORE TO MAINLY SEE THE GALES THROUGH
SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN TONIGHT...AND ALLOW WINDS TO
STEADILY DIMINISH TONIGHT. WITH THE WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS...HAZARDOUS WAVES WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR THE INDIANA
SHORELINE.

FLOW WILL THEN TURN SOUTHWEST SUNDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE AND TURNS THINGS
NORTHWEST AGAIN. THIS WEST TO NORTHWEST TO SOUTH PATTERN REPEATS
ITSELF MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ON THURSDAY. OVERALL MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH THE FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT COULD
SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

BEACHLER

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
     ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-
     ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...2 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY.

IN...WIND ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...2 PM FRIDAY
     TO 7 PM FRIDAY.

LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...2 PM
     FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY.

&&

$$

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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
854 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

Vigorous shortwave and jet streak are pushing a cold front rapidly
across IL. They have triggered strong to severe storms with
isolated tornadoes this afternoon/evening. Remaining storms seem
to be evolving into more outflow dominated storms, but will
continue to monitor for any localized rotations the next couple
hours. Storms and cold front are projected to be east of our IL
counties by 11 pm, with strong west-southwest winds in their wake.
Sustained winds behind the front will increase to 20 mph and
gust to 35 mph at times. A brief period of clearing skies may
follow the front for an hour or so, but low clouds will return for
6-8 hours the rest of the night. Clear skies will return from west
to east around sunrise tomorrow, with gusty winds continuing.

Low temps will drop about 20 degrees colder than last night, with
readings in the mid to upper 40s toward sunrise. Likewise, highs
on Friday will be around 15-18F colder than today, but still in
the low 60s.

Updated the weather and PoP forecasts to match expected trends,
with minor adjustments to clouds cover timing. Updated info will
be available by 9 pm.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

19z/2pm surface analysis shows 998mb low centered over southeast
Iowa, with cold front trailing southward into western Missouri.
Line of convection is rapidly developing along the front within the
moderately unstable and uncapped airmass in the warm sector.  0-6km
bulk shear values will be on the increase as the afternoon
progresses as a mid-level short-wave approaches from the west,
resulting in continued convective intensification.  HRRR has had a
good handle on the situation throughout the day, with its latest
iteration agreeing closely with prior runs.  Based on satellite
timing tools and HRRR guidance, it appears the line of storms will
cross the Mississippi River by 23z/6pm, then will track through the
Illinois River Valley and to the I-55 corridor by about 02z/8pm.
Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat, but large hail and a
few tornadoes will be possible as well.  As the storms move further
east, they will likely congeal into a solid line and the tornado
threat will diminish accordingly.  Once the front passes, windy and
cooler weather will be on tap overnight with a slow west to east
clearing trend by dawn.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

Morning upper air shows a potential severe event this afternoon and
evening, as main upper level shortwave and vort max over southwest
NE at 12z will be rotating to the east. Low level thermal ridge and
moisture axis extends into MO/IL ahead of the approaching front.
low level jet is particularly strong flowing into MO/western IL and
so ample shear available in warm sector.

HRRR model and NAM a little slower on the movement of the front
through the region, going through this evening. Shear with strong
upper jet and low level southern jet will make severe potential with
severe storms possible on the cold front as it sweeps through.
Deepening surface low to move northeast into eastern IA and then
southern WI.

High pressure in control until weak front moves in and brings
showers on late Sunday and Sunday night. Another chance off showers
Tuesday into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

Line of storms firing along a cold front will produce heavy rain,
hail and possible tornadoes. Lower chances that any terminal site
will get hit directly by any severe weather, but still possible.
Target window should be 2 hours as the line moves through, so we
continued with 2hr tempos for heavy rain and MVFR vis/cig.
Upstream obs and satellite images show a break in the MVFR cigs
should follow the line, before MVFR clouds return in wrap-around
moisture behind the low pressure system. Will continue MVFR clouds
until 10z at PIA, then advance clearing eastward into Friday
morning.

Strong winds will continue both ahead of the front and behind.
Wind direction will remain SW ahead of the front, with gusts to
30kt, then become west later tonight. Gusts will increase to
25-30kt tomorrow as mid level jet winds continue to be strong.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 1 AM CDT Friday FOR ILZ054>057-061>063-
066>068-071>073.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Shimon







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 316 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
241 PM CDT

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH HAVE AT LEAST TEMPORARILY SHOWN
SIGNS OF WEAKENING WITH DIMINISHED LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NOTED AND
SUBTLE WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS. THESE STORMS HAVE MAINLY BEEN
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT WHICH IS
ADVECTING NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS ALL OF
NORTHERN ILLINOIS HAS UNDERGONE AT LEAST MODEST DESTABILIZATION
WHILE THE GREATEST AMOUNT HAS OCCURRED OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
STORMS ARE MOVING INTO A BETTER LOW LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND
WITH THE GIVEN DESTABILIZATION EXPECT THAT THE WEAKENING TREND
WILL BE TEMPORARY. ALREADY HAVE SEEN NEW TOWERS BUILDING IN
ADVANCE OF THE ORIGINAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER.

FARTHER WEST THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF INCREASING
CONVECTION THOUGH COLD POOL IS NOT READILY EVIDENT AS OF YET. OUT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...PARTIAL CLEARING HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO
WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S WITH LOW/MID 60 DEWPOINTS RESULTING IN
STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG WITH STRONG DCAPE. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND FOR COLD POOLS TO MERGE IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH ACCELERATION OF THE LINE PER CORFIDI
VECTORS OF 40-50 KTS. GIVEN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR OUT AHEAD AND BOUNDARIES FROM THE
FIRST CLUSTER OF CONVECTION...THERE REMAINS A TORNADO THREAT AS
THIS LINE MOVE INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

DEUBELBEISS

&&

.SHORT TERM...
400 AM CDT

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

DENSE FOG CONTINUES IN COOL/SATURATED AIR MASS WITH NORTHEAST
WINDS OFF THE LAKE THIS MORNING...WILL MAINTAIN DENSE FOG ADVISORY
ALONG THE LAKE AS ISSUED.

CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE MIDWEST...IN A REGION OF BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION ATOP NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH STRETCHES
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN IOWA...THEN EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. THESE CLUSTERS OF STORMS WERE
GENERALLY TIED TO INDIVIDUAL MINOR-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
FEATURES...AND ASSOCIATED LOCALIZED ENHANCED MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND ASCENT. TO THE WEST...STRONG UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING ONTO THE
PLAINS EAST OF THE ROCKIES...AND IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE MID-
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COMPACT AND
SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY-TILTED ENERGETIC DISTURBANCE. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS AT THIS HOUR WILL
DEEPEN AND LIFT TO SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN/FAR NORTHWEST IL PER
COMPLIMENTING GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS...WITH THE FRONT LIFTING NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS PATTERN HAS ALL THE
EARMARKS OF BEING A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER PRODUCER ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WITH THAT SAID...QUESTIONS REMAIN WITH RESPECT TO EVOLUTION OF
STORMS LATER TODAY...MAINLY DUE TO THE EXPECTATION THAT SEVERAL
CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY DUE TO PERSISTENT WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION AND ASCENT IN REGION OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW. CONVECTION ALLOWING
GUIDANCE (HRRR/NMM/ARW RUNS) DEPICT SEVERAL CLUSTERS DEVELOPING
AND LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING AND MIDDAY
HOURS...AND REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SEEMS TO INDICATE THIS WILL BE
THE TREND AT LEAST THROUGH THIS MORNING. THUS WHILE SYNOPTIC
FEATURES WILL BE STRONG...MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES AND FORCING REMAIN
UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. STILL...STRONG FORCING IN ADVANCE OF COLD
FRONT COUPLED WITH STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH COMPACT WAVE
SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. 00Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WARM SECTOR MLCAPES
AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG...WITH AMPLE DEEP AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR. SPC
NOTES SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO STORM MODE...LINE SEGMENTS
AS OPPOSED TO DISCRETE CELLS...THOUGH SUPERCELLULAR
CHARACTERISTICS ARE LIKELY GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT. DAMAGING WINDS
FROM LINES/LINE SEGMENTS LOOKS TO BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD
THREAT...THOUGH NORTHERN IL/SOUTHERN WI...WHERE WINDS WILL MOST
LIKELY BE BACKED MORE STRONGLY AHEAD OF THE LOW...WILL STILL HAVE
A REAL TORNADO POTENTIAL. STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE UPSCALE INTO
SQUALL-LINE AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE THREAT QUICKLY WINDING DOWN
BEFORE MIDNIGHT AFTER FROPA.

RATZER

&&

.LONG TERM...
257 PM CDT

FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

FOLLOWING A PERIOD OF VERY ACTIVE WEATHER...FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...A PERIOD OF RELATIVE CALM WILL
SET UP FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A COOL...DRY HIGH PRESSURE AREA
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO CLOSER TO
SEASONAL HIGHS NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60F UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.  AS THE HIGH WILL BE RIGHT OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...LIGHT WINDS AND A DRY
AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ENHANCED RADIATIVE COOLING OVERNIGHT FOR
LOWS TO DROP BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S SATURDAY MORNING.
WITH THE HIGH BEGINNING TO BUILD OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR WILL
KEEP THE COOLING TREND VERY BRIEF WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK TO
AROUND 60F OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
IMMEDIATE LAKEFRONT...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN COOLER AS A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BETWEEN THE COOL LAKE WATER AND
WARMER LAKE SHOULD ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP.  HIGHS ON
SATURDAY ALONG THE LAKE FRONT TOPPING OUT IN THE MIDDLE 50S.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WILL LIKELY PREVENT A LAKE BREEZE FROM
DEVELOPING.

FOR SUNDAY...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE NRN
ROCKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO PHASE WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
LIFTING INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THIS PHASING SHOULD
RESULT IN AN AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN TO THE
REGION.  THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE...IN GENERAL...AGREE ON THE
SCENARIO...BUT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
AND THE DEGREE OF PHASING AND THE RESULTANT STRENGTH OF THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH LEAD TO A RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE
LATTER PORTIONS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.  CURRENTLY FEEL
THAT A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
AND THEN SHUTTING OFF BY MONDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  WHILE THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF PCPN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...START AND
END TIMES REMAIN UNCERTAIN AS WELL AS THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE PCPN AND WILL LIKELY BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE SPEED OF AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.  FOR THE LATTER
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...THERE COULD BE ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AS THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN MAINTAINS A HIGH AMPLITUDE...QUICKLY
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.  THE GFS/ECMWF ARE ACTUALLY SHOWING BETTER
CONSISTENCY FOR THE END OF THE LONGER TERM FORECAST PERIOD THAN
EARLIER...WITH ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CNTRL
PLAINS.  THE ECMWF IS TRENDING A BIT STRONGER AND DEVELOPING MORE OF
A NEGATIVE TILT TO THE TROUGH AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THE GFS IS REMARKABLY SIMILAR...BUT ABOUT 24 HOURS SLOWER IN
DEVELOPING THE NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED UPPER LOW.
SHOULD THIS SCENARIO PAN OUT...THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEAK COULD BE RIPE
FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER.

KREIN

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...

* SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTN...WITH THE FINAL ROUND OF
  STORMS MOVING THROUGH ARND 2Z. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
  SEVERE.

* GUSTY SSW WINDS WITH GUSTS ARND 25 KT.

* IFR VSBY EXPECTED WITH TSRA.

* GUSTY WINDS BCMG SW TO W ARND MIDNIGHT WITH MAX GUSTS 30-35 KT.

JEE

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

STILL LOOKING AT A VERY MESSY FORECAST AS THE PIECES NECESSARY FOR
WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE NOT COMPLETELY LINING UP. THE SFC LOW IS
OVER IOWA WHILE ITS WARM FRONT STRETCHES FROM IOWA CITY IOWA
THROUGH ORD AND ITS COLD FRONT IS OVER WESTERN MO. THE LINGERING
CLOUD COVER IS INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT
THINKING STRONG LIFT FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW
STORMS TO DEVELOP. THINKING STORMS WILL GET STARTED OVER IOWA AND
CENTRAL IL AND REACH THE EASTERN TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. FOR RFD...WILL LIKELY SEE STORMS A BIT
EARLIER IN THE MID TO LATE AFTN. ONCE AGAIN SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY BE SVR WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND MAYBE AN
ISOLATED TORNADO.

THE COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
ORGANIZED STORMS EXPECTED ALONG IT. IFR VSBY AND MVFR CIGS ARE
PSBL ONCE AGAIN. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW AND W BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. GUSTY WEST WINDS WITH VFR CIGS AND VSBY ARE
EXPECTED TOMORROW.

JEE

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTN FOLLOWED BY A
  SEGMENT OR LINE OF STORMS THIS EVENING. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
  COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND TIMING.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION BEHIND THE SCATTERED STORMS.
  WINDS COULD BE CHAOTIC FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN REDUCED VSBY UNDER STORMS...MEDIUM-LOW
  CONFIDENCE IN CIG HEIGHTS.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND GUSTS OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW...GUSTS
  COULD BE HIGHER.

JEE

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

* FRIDAY NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST
  WINDS.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS. LAKE BREEZE POSSIBLE.
* SUNDAY...DRY/VFR. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS.
* MONDAY...DRY/VFR. EAST WINDS.
* TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. SOUTH WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
315 PM CDT

CONDITIONS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN ARE DETERIORATING RAPIDLY
TODAY...FIRST WITH WAVES OF THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD.  AS OF 3PM
CDT...THE FRONT HAD MOVED UP TO THE CENTER OF THE LAKE AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
IOWA CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY EARLY
THIS EVENING.  BY THIS POINT...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REACH ALMOST
TO THE NORTH END OF THE LAKE...BUT WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALLS AND A
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE LAKE AS THE SFC LOW
APPROACHES...WINDS OVER THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE SHOULD INCREASE
TO GALE FORCE FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND THE SOUTH HALF OF THE
LAKE.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN INTO THE
EVENING AS WELL.  THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE CNTRL
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE LATE THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS QUICKLY SHIFTING
TO WLY-NWLY.  A STRONG NORTHERLY GRADIENT BEHIND THE EXITING
LOW...INCREASING COLD ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A COOL HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM DROPPING INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES AS A
RESULT OF THE COMBINATION OF THE EXITING LOW AND APPROACHING
HIGH...SHOULD ALL COMBINE TO BRING SHORT PERIOD OF WEST TO NWLY
GALES TO THE LAKE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  THE APPROACHING HIGH
SHOULD BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING WINDS OVER THE LAKE TO DROP OFF RELATIVELY
QUICKLY.  FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...CONDITIONS OVER
THE LAKE SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO SWEEP ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY...BUT THIS SHOULD BE
A LESS DYNAMIC SYSTEM...AND WINDS SHOULD NOT GET AS STRONG AS WITH
THE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE LAKE AT THE CURRENT TIME.

KREIN

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
     LMZ779...10 PM THURSDAY TO 1 PM FRIDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
308 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

19z/2pm surface analysis shows 998mb low centered over southeast
Iowa, with cold front trailing southward into western Missouri.
Line of convection is rapidly developing along the front within the
moderately unstable and uncapped airmass in the warm sector.  0-6km
bulk shear values will be on the increase as the afternoon
progresses as a mid-level short-wave approaches from the west,
resulting in continued convective intensification.  HRRR has had a
good handle on the situation throughout the day, with its latest
iteration agreeing closely with prior runs.  Based on satellite
timing tools and HRRR guidance, it appears the line of storms will
cross the Mississippi River by 23z/6pm, then will track through the
Illinois River Valley and to the I-55 corridor by about 02z/8pm.
Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat, but large hail and a
few tornadoes will be possible as well.  As the storms move further
east, they will likely congeal into a solid line and the tornado
threat will diminish accordingly.  Once the front passes, windy and
cooler weather will be on tap overnight with a slow west to east
clearing trend by dawn.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

Morning upper air shows a pontential severe event this afternoon and
evening, as main upper level shortwave and vort max over southwest
NE at 12z will be rotating to the east. Low level thermal ridge and
moisutre axis extends into MO/IL ahead of the approaching front.
lowl level jet is particularly strong flowing into MO/western IL and
so ample shear available in warm sector.

HRR model and NAM a little slower on the movement of the front
through the region, going through this evening. Shear with strong
upper jet and low level southern jet will make severe potential with
severe storms possible on the cold front as it sweeps through.
Deepening surface low to move northeast into eastern IA and then
southern WI.

High pressure in control until weak front moves in and brings
showers on late sunday and sunday night. Another chance off showers
Tuesday into Thursday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

Strong southwesterly winds will prevail this afternoon, with
frequent gusts to between 25 and 35kt. Convection will initially
be isolated, but will become more widespread by late afternoon
into the early evening as a cold front moves in from the west.
High-res models are in good agreement that a line of storms will
develop along the advancing front near/west of the Mississippi
River by mid to late afternoon, then push eastward into Illinois
after that. Based on HRRR timing, have included a TEMPO group for
thunder at KPIA between 23z and 01z, then further east to KCMI
between 02z and 04z. Once storms pass, winds will veer to the west
and increase and remain quite gusty through the night. In
addition, MVFR ceilings currently across western Iowa into Kansas
will spill eastward, with forecast soundings suggesting low clouds
remaining in place until close to dawn Friday. After that, am
expecting mostly clear skies with continued brisk westerly winds
Friday morning.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 1 AM CDT Friday FOR ILZ054>057-061>063-
066>068-071>073.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Barnes






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 154 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
152 PM CDT

A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THERE ARE TWO AREAS
OF CONCERN WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A LONGER DURATION TORNADO WATCH
THAN NORMAL...IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING. THE FIRST
AREA OF CONCERN IS AN MCV LIFTING INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO THE LOT FORECAST AREA AS OF 2 PM CDT
AND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE CHICAGO METRO OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THE SECOND AREA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA...AND ITS ATTENDANT WARM/COLD
FRONTS WHICH WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING.

DEUBELBEISS

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...125 PM CDT

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST NORTHWEST/NORTH OF PEORIA
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN MCV LIFTING ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. LATEST RAP SHOWS 35-40KT 0-6 KM SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH
MODERATELY STRONG INSTABILITY AROUND 1500 J/KG. SPECIAL 18Z SOUNDING
FROM ILX SHOWS STRONG LAPSE RATES ATOP A MODERATELY CAPPED BOUNDARY
LAYER...HOWEVER CAPPING WAS FAIRLY NON-EXISTENT ON THE 18Z DVN
SOUNDING. NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR THAT RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS MODEST MIDLEVEL ROTATION WITHIN THE STORMS WHICH
HAVE UNDERGONE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO
AND ALSO HAVE THREE BODY SCATTER SPIKES AT TIMES. EXPECT THESE
STORMS TO CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE LOT FORECAST
AREA. WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THESE STORMS FOR AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. FARTHER
WEST...CONVECTION IS INCREASING ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTH
CENTRAL IOWA ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED JUST TO OUR WEST. THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS A
CONCERN FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

DEUBELBEISS

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...1228 PM CDT

CONTINUES TO BE A THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

BROAD ZONE OF WEAK ASCENT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SPORADIC DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP MIDDAY OVER
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES
SHOW A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO NORTHEAST MISSOURI WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THAT FEATURE. IT
WOULD APPEAR THAT THIS SHORTWAVE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE
OF IT WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE CWA. MORNING
SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE REGION SHOWED A MOIST AND WEAKLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH LITTLE/NO CAPPING INVERSION...SO
IT IS LOOKING LIKE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MUTED ACROSS THE
CWA TODAY AS ANY BREAKS IN CLOUDS END UP FILLING IN WITH
CONVECTION. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO SUPPORT A
SEVERE THREAT AND SHEAR PROFILES WILL ONLY GROW MORE FAVORABLE
WITH TIME TODAY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS CYCLONE INTENSIFIES.

IT IS UNCLEAR WHAT ROLE THE MISSOURI LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL PLAY ON THE
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED THE STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING CYCLONE AND WIND
FIELDS STILL SUGGEST THERE AN APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT EXISTS GIVEN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WITH SOMEWHAT LESS DEFINED FORCING IN THE
WARM SECTOR...STORMS STAND A BETTER CHANCE OF BEING MORE DISCRETE
WOULD RAISES THE CHANCES A BIT OF SUPERCELLS AND ATTENDANT WIND/HAIL
AND POSSIBLE TORNADO THREAT...PARTICULARLY AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON
AND SHEAR PROFILES FURTHER IMPROVE. THIS WILL PARTICULARLY BE THE
CASE TOWARD 00Z AS 1KM AGL WINDS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO OVER
40KT RESULTING IN A SUBSTANTIAL STRENGTHENING OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR.
ASSUMING A MORE DISCRETE STORM MODE PERSISTS THROUGH THAT TIME
THEN THE TORNADO THREAT WOULD BE HIGHER.

IZZI

&&

.SHORT TERM...
400 AM CDT

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

DENSE FOG CONTINUES IN COOL/SATURATED AIR MASS WITH NORTHEAST
WINDS OFF THE LAKE THIS MORNING...WILL MAINTAIN DENSE FOG ADVISORY
ALONG THE LAKE AS ISSUED.

CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE MIDWEST...IN A REGION OF BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION ATOP NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH STRETCHES
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN IOWA...THEN EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. THESE CLUSTERS OF STORMS WERE
GENERALLY TIED TO INDIVIDUAL MINOR-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
FEATURES...AND ASSOCIATED LOCALIZED ENHANCED MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND ASCENT. TO THE WEST...STRONG UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING ONTO THE
PLAINS EAST OF THE ROCKIES...AND IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE MID-
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COMPACT AND
SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY-TILTED ENERGETIC DISTURBANCE. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS AT THIS HOUR WILL
DEEPEN AND LIFT TO SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN/FAR NORTHWEST IL PER
COMPLIMENTING GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS...WITH THE FRONT LIFTING NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS PATTERN HAS ALL THE
EARMARKS OF BEING A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER PRODUCER ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WITH THAT SAID...QUESTIONS REMAIN WITH RESPECT TO EVOLUTION OF
STORMS LATER TODAY...MAINLY DUE TO THE EXPECTATION THAT SEVERAL
CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY DUE TO PERSISTENT WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION AND ASCENT IN REGION OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW. CONVECTION ALLOWING
GUIDANCE (HRRR/NMM/ARW RUNS) DEPICT SEVERAL CLUSTERS DEVELOPING
AND LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING AND MIDDAY
HOURS...AND REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SEEMS TO INDICATE THIS WILL BE
THE TREND AT LEAST THROUGH THIS MORNING. THUS WHILE SYNOPTIC
FEATURES WILL BE STRONG...MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES AND FORCING REMAIN
UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. STILL...STRONG FORCING IN ADVANCE OF COLD
FRONT COUPLED WITH STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH COMPACT WAVE
SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. 00Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WARM SECTOR MLCAPES
AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG...WITH AMPLE DEEP AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR. SPC
NOTES SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO STORM MODE...LINE SEGMENTS
AS OPPOSED TO DISCRETE CELLS...THOUGH SUPERCELLULAR
CHARACTERISTICS ARE LIKELY GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT. DAMAGING WINDS
FROM LINES/LINE SEGMENTS LOOKS TO BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD
THREAT...THOUGH NORTHERN IL/SOUTHERN WI...WHERE WINDS WILL MOST
LIKELY BE BACKED MORE STRONGLY AHEAD OF THE LOW...WILL STILL HAVE
A REAL TORNADO POTENTIAL. STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE UPSCALE INTO
SQUALL-LINE AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE THREAT QUICKLY WINDING DOWN
BEFORE MIDNIGHT AFTER FROPA.

RATZER

&&

.LONG TERM...
416 AM CDT...

FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR SPREADS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TONIGHT... AS UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES
OVERNIGHT. A SECOND FAIRLY STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE DROPS
INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH FRIDAY...AND ROTATES SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN IL AND LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
DEVELOPING BENEATH COOL MID LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH...
WHICH DESPITE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE A
FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR THE IL/WI BORDER DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE DIURNAL STABILIZATION
OCCURS. TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH
MAY EVEN FALL A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY
SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER AND TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL.

LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN MOVING HIGH OFF TO THE
EAST ON SUNDAY AND DEVELOPING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS PRESENTS THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIP...MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
ON MONDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS BACK IN. MODELS BECOME MORE
DIVERGENT TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WITH TIMING OF AN UPPER LOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIP CHANCES GENERALLY LOOK TO
INCREASE BY MID-WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES...THOUGH GENERAL
MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO SLOW THINGS DOWN. IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE WARM
UP NICELY IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH 70S IN THE FORECAST FOR
TUE-WED.

RATZER

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...

* SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTN AROUND 23Z...WITH THE
  FINAL ROUND OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH ARND 2Z. SOME OF THESE
  STORMS COULD BE SEVERE.

* GUSTY SSW WINDS WITH GUSTS ARND 25 KT.

* IFR CIGS AND VSBY PSBL WITH TSRA.

* GUSTY WINDS BCMG SW TO W ARND MIDNIGHT WITH MAX GUSTS 30-35 KT.

JEE

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

STILL LOOKING AT A VERY MESSY FORECAST AS THE PIECES NECESSARY FOR
WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE NOT COMPLETELY LINING UP. THE SFC LOW IS
OVER IOWA WHILE ITS WARM FRONT STRETCHES FROM IOWA CITY IOWA
THROUGH ORD AND ITS COLD FRONT IS OVER WESTERN MO. THE LINGERING
CLOUD COVER IS INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT
THINKING STRONG LIFT FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW
STORMS TO DEVELOP. THINKING STORMS WILL GET STARTED OVER IOWA AND
CENTRAL IL AND REACH THE EASTERN TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. FOR RFD...WILL LIKELY SEE STORMS A BIT
EARLIER IN THE MID TO LATE AFTN. ONCE AGAIN SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY BE SVR WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND MAYBE AN
ISOLATED TORNADO.

THE COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
ORGANIZED STORMS EXPECTED ALONG IT. IFR VSBY AND MVFR CIGS ARE
PSBL ONCE AGAIN. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW AND W BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. GUSTY WEST WINDS WITH VFR CIGS AND VSBY ARE
EXPECTED TOMORROW.

JEE

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTN FOLLOWED BY A
  SEGMENT OR LINE OF STORMS THIS EVENING. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
  COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND TIMING.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION BEHIND THE SCATTERED STORMS.
  WINDS COULD BE CHAOTIC FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN REDUCED VSBY UNDER STORMS...MEDIUM-LOW
  CONFIDENCE IN CIG HEIGHTS.

JEE

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

* FRIDAY NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST
  WINDS.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS. LAKE BREEZE POSSIBLE.
* SUNDAY...DRY/VFR. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS.
* MONDAY...DRY/VFR. EAST WINDS.
* TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. SOUTH WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...

416 AM...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY MORNING AS IT DEEPENS. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LAKE AHEAD
OF THIS LOW. EASTERLY WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTHERLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE TODAY WITH SPEEDS STEADILY
INCREASING. WITH THE LOW DEEPENING AS IT PASSES WEST OF THE
LAKE...WIND SPEEDS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO REACH GALE FORCE THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY FROM THE WEST. HOISTED A GALE
WATCH THIS MORNING BUT IF TRENDS CONTINUE EXPECT A GALE WARNING TO
BE NEEDED LATER TODAY. POSSIBLE GALES MAY EXTEND A BIT FURTHER
NORTH THEN CURRENT WATCH...BUT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF
THE LOW. WINDS DIMINISH SOME FRIDAY AND THEN DIMINISH TO 10-15KT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. CMS

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 PM THURSDAY.

     GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
     LMZ779...10 PM THURSDAY TO 1 PM FRIDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 125 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
125 PM CDT

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST NORTHWEST/NORTH OF PEORIA
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN MCV LIFTING ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. LATEST RAP SHOWS 35-40KT 0-6 KM SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH
MODERATELY STRONG INSTABILITY AROUND 1500 J/KG. SPECIAL 18Z SOUNDING
FROM ILX SHOWS STRONG LAPSE RATES ATOP A MODERATELY CAPPED BOUNDARY
LAYER...HOWEVER CAPPING WAS FAIRLY NON-EXISTENT ON THE 18Z DVN
SOUNDING. NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR THAT RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS MODEST MIDLEVEL ROTATION WITHIN THE STORMS WHICH
HAVE UNDERGONE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO
AND ALSO HAVE THREE BODY SCATTER SPIKES AT TIMES. EXPECT THESE
STORMS TO CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE LOT FORECAST
AREA. WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THESE STORMS FOR AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. FARTHER
WEST...CONVECTION IS INCREASING ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTH
CENTRAL IOWA ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED JUST TO OUR WEST. THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS A
CONCERN FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
1228 PM CDT

CONTINUES TO BE A THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

BROAD ZONE OF WEAK ASCENT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SPORADIC DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP MIDDAY OVER
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES
SHOW A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO NORTHEAST MISSOURI WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THAT FEATURE. IT
WOULD APPEAR THAT THIS SHORTWAVE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE
OF IT WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE CWA. MORNING
SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE REGION SHOWED A MOIST AND WEAKLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH LITTLE/NO CAPPING INVERSION...SO
IT IS LOOKING LIKE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MUTED ACROSS THE
CWA TODAY AS ANY BREAKS IN CLOUDS END UP FILLING IN WITH
CONVECTION. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO SUPPORT A
SEVERE THREAT AND SHEAR PROFILES WILL ONLY GROW MORE FAVORABLE
WITH TIME TODAY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS CYCLONE INTENSIFIES.

IT IS UNCLEAR WHAT ROLE THE MISSOURI LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL PLAY ON THE
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED THE STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING CYCLONE AND WIND
FIELDS STILL SUGGEST THERE AN APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT EXISTS GIVEN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WITH SOMEWHAT LESS DEFINED FORCING IN THE
WARM SECTOR...STORMS STAND A BETTER CHANCE OF BEING MORE DISCRETE
WOULD RAISES THE CHANCES A BIT OF SUPERCELLS AND ATTENDANT WIND/HAIL
AND POSSIBLE TORNADO THREAT...PARTICULARLY AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON
AND SHEAR PROFILES FURTHER IMPROVE. THIS WILL PARTICULARLY BE THE
CASE TOWARD 00Z AS 1KM AGL WINDS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO OVER
40KT RESULTING IN A SUBSTANTIAL STRENGTHENING OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR.
ASSUMING A MORE DISCRETE STORM MODE PERSISTS THROUGH THAT TIME
THEN THE TORNADO THREAT WOULD BE HIGHER.

IZZI

&&

.SHORT TERM...
400 AM CDT

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

DENSE FOG CONTINUES IN COOL/SATURATED AIR MASS WITH NORTHEAST
WINDS OFF THE LAKE THIS MORNING...WILL MAINTAIN DENSE FOG ADVISORY
ALONG THE LAKE AS ISSUED.

CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE MIDWEST...IN A REGION OF BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION ATOP NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH STRETCHES
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN IOWA...THEN EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. THESE CLUSTERS OF STORMS WERE
GENERALLY TIED TO INDIVIDUAL MINOR-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
FEATURES...AND ASSOCIATED LOCALIZED ENHANCED MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND ASCENT. TO THE WEST...STRONG UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING ONTO THE
PLAINS EAST OF THE ROCKIES...AND IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE MID-
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COMPACT AND
SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY-TILTED ENERGETIC DISTURBANCE. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS AT THIS HOUR WILL
DEEPEN AND LIFT TO SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN/FAR NORTHWEST IL PER
COMPLIMENTING GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS...WITH THE FRONT LIFTING NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS PATTERN HAS ALL THE
EARMARKS OF BEING A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER PRODUCER ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WITH THAT SAID...QUESTIONS REMAIN WITH RESPECT TO EVOLUTION OF
STORMS LATER TODAY...MAINLY DUE TO THE EXPECTATION THAT SEVERAL
CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY DUE TO PERSISTENT WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION AND ASCENT IN REGION OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW. CONVECTION ALLOWING
GUIDANCE (HRRR/NMM/ARW RUNS) DEPICT SEVERAL CLUSTERS DEVELOPING
AND LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING AND MIDDAY
HOURS...AND REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SEEMS TO INDICATE THIS WILL BE
THE TREND AT LEAST THROUGH THIS MORNING. THUS WHILE SYNOPTIC
FEATURES WILL BE STRONG...MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES AND FORCING REMAIN
UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. STILL...STRONG FORCING IN ADVANCE OF COLD
FRONT COUPLED WITH STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH COMPACT WAVE
SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. 00Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WARM SECTOR MLCAPES
AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG...WITH AMPLE DEEP AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR. SPC
NOTES SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO STORM MODE...LINE SEGMENTS
AS OPPOSED TO DISCRETE CELLS...THOUGH SUPERCELLULAR
CHARACTERISTICS ARE LIKELY GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT. DAMAGING WINDS
FROM LINES/LINE SEGMENTS LOOKS TO BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD
THREAT...THOUGH NORTHERN IL/SOUTHERN WI...WHERE WINDS WILL MOST
LIKELY BE BACKED MORE STRONGLY AHEAD OF THE LOW...WILL STILL HAVE
A REAL TORNADO POTENTIAL. STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE UPSCALE INTO
SQUALL-LINE AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE THREAT QUICKLY WINDING DOWN
BEFORE MIDNIGHT AFTER FROPA.

RATZER

&&

.LONG TERM...
416 AM CDT...

FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR SPREADS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TONIGHT... AS UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES
OVERNIGHT. A SECOND FAIRLY STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE DROPS
INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH FRIDAY...AND ROTATES SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN IL AND LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
DEVELOPING BENEATH COOL MID LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH...
WHICH DESPITE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE A
FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR THE IL/WI BORDER DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE DIURNAL STABILIZATION
OCCURS. TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH
MAY EVEN FALL A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY
SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER AND TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL.

LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN MOVING HIGH OFF TO THE
EAST ON SUNDAY AND DEVELOPING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS PRESENTS THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIP...MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
ON MONDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS BACK IN. MODELS BECOME MORE
DIVERGENT TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WITH TIMING OF AN UPPER LOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIP CHANCES GENERALLY LOOK TO
INCREASE BY MID-WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES...THOUGH GENERAL
MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO SLOW THINGS DOWN. IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE WARM
UP NICELY IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH 70S IN THE FORECAST FOR
TUE-WED.

RATZER

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...

* SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTN AROUND 23Z...WITH THE
  FINAL ROUND OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH ARND 2Z. SOME OF THESE
  STORMS COULD BE SEVERE.

* GUSTY SSW WINDS WITH GUSTS ARND 25 KT.

* IFR CIGS AND VSBY PSBL WITH TSRA.

* GUSTY WINDS BCMG SW TO W ARND MIDNIGHT WITH MAX GUSTS 30-35 KT.

JEE

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

STILL LOOKING AT A VERY MESSY FORECAST AS THE PIECES NECESSARY FOR
WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE NOT COMPLETELY LINING UP. THE SFC LOW IS
OVER IOWA WHILE ITS WARM FRONT STRETCHES FROM IOWA CITY IOWA
THROUGH ORD AND ITS COLD FRONT IS OVER WESTERN MO. THE LINGERING
CLOUD COVER IS INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT
THINKING STRONG LIFT FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW
STORMS TO DEVELOP. THINKING STORMS WILL GET STARTED OVER IOWA AND
CENTRAL IL AND REACH THE EASTERN TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. FOR RFD...WILL LIKELY SEE STORMS A BIT
EARLIER IN THE MID TO LATE AFTN. ONCE AGAIN SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY BE SVR WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND MAYBE AN
ISOLATED TORNADO.

THE COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
ORGANIZED STORMS EXPECTED ALONG IT. IFR VSBY AND MVFR CIGS ARE
PSBL ONCE AGAIN. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW AND W BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. GUSTY WEST WINDS WITH VFR CIGS AND VSBY ARE
EXPECTED TOMORROW.

JEE

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTN FOLLOWED BY A
  SEGMENT OR LINE OF STORMS THIS EVENING. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
  COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND TIMING.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION BEHIND THE SCATTERED STORMS.
  WINDS COULD BE CHAOTIC FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN REDUCED VSBY UNDER STORMS...MEDIUM-LOW
  CONFIDENCE IN CIG HEIGHTS.

JEE

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

* FRIDAY NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST
  WINDS.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS. LAKE BREEZE POSSIBLE.
* SUNDAY...DRY/VFR. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS.
* MONDAY...DRY/VFR. EAST WINDS.
* TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. SOUTH WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...

416 AM...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY MORNING AS IT DEEPENS. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LAKE AHEAD
OF THIS LOW. EASTERLY WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTHERLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE TODAY WITH SPEEDS STEADILY
INCREASING. WITH THE LOW DEEPENING AS IT PASSES WEST OF THE
LAKE...WIND SPEEDS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO REACH GALE FORCE THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY FROM THE WEST. HOISTED A GALE
WATCH THIS MORNING BUT IF TRENDS CONTINUE EXPECT A GALE WARNING TO
BE NEEDED LATER TODAY. POSSIBLE GALES MAY EXTEND A BIT FURTHER
NORTH THEN CURRENT WATCH...BUT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF
THE LOW. WINDS DIMINISH SOME FRIDAY AND THEN DIMINISH TO 10-15KT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. CMS

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 PM THURSDAY.

     GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
     LMZ779...10 PM THURSDAY TO 1 PM FRIDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 103 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
1228 PM CDT

CONTINUES TO BE A THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

BROAD ZONE OF WEAK ASCENT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SPORADIC DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP MIDDAY OVER
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES
SHOW A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO NORTHEAST MISSOURI WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THAT FEATURE. IT
WOULD APPEAR THAT THIS SHORTWAVE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE
OF IT WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE CWA. MORNING
SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE REGION SHOWED A MOIST AND WEAKLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH LITTLE/NO CAPPING INVERSION...SO
IT IS LOOKING LIKE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MUTED ACROSS THE
CWA TODAY AS ANY BREAKS IN CLOUDS END UP FILLING IN WITH
CONVECTION. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO SUPPORT A
SEVERE THREAT AND SHEAR PROFILES WILL ONLY GROW MORE FAVORABLE
WITH TIME TODAY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS CYCLONE INTENSIFIES.

IT IS UNCLEAR WHAT ROLE THE MISSOURI LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL PLAY ON THE
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED THE STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING CYCLONE AND WIND
FIELDS STILL SUGGEST THERE AN APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT EXISTS GIVEN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WITH SOMEWHAT LESS DEFINED FORCING IN THE
WARM SECTOR...STORMS STAND A BETTER CHANCE OF BEING MORE DISCRETE
WOULD RAISES THE CHANCES A BIT OF SUPERCELLS AND ATTENDANT WIND/HAIL
AND POSSIBLE TORNADO THREAT...PARTICULARLY AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON
AND SHEAR PROFILES FURTHER IMPROVE. THIS WILL PARTICULARLY BE THE
CASE TOWARD 00Z AS 1KM AGL WINDS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO OVER
40KT RESULTING IN A SUBSTANTIAL STRENGTHENING OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR.
ASSUMING A MORE DISCRETE STORM MODE PERSISTS THROUGH THAT TIME
THEN THE TORNADO THREAT WOULD BE HIGHER.

IZZI

&&

.SHORT TERM...
400 AM CDT

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

DENSE FOG CONTINUES IN COOL/SATURATED AIR MASS WITH NORTHEAST
WINDS OFF THE LAKE THIS MORNING...WILL MAINTAIN DENSE FOG ADVISORY
ALONG THE LAKE AS ISSUED.

CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE MIDWEST...IN A REGION OF BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION ATOP NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH STRETCHES
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN IOWA...THEN EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. THESE CLUSTERS OF STORMS WERE
GENERALLY TIED TO INDIVIDUAL MINOR-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
FEATURES...AND ASSOCIATED LOCALIZED ENHANCED MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND ASCENT. TO THE WEST...STRONG UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING ONTO THE
PLAINS EAST OF THE ROCKIES...AND IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE MID-
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COMPACT AND
SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY-TILTED ENERGETIC DISTURBANCE. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS AT THIS HOUR WILL
DEEPEN AND LIFT TO SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN/FAR NORTHWEST IL PER
COMPLIMENTING GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS...WITH THE FRONT LIFTING NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS PATTERN HAS ALL THE
EARMARKS OF BEING A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER PRODUCER ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WITH THAT SAID...QUESTIONS REMAIN WITH RESPECT TO EVOLUTION OF
STORMS LATER TODAY...MAINLY DUE TO THE EXPECTATION THAT SEVERAL
CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY DUE TO PERSISTENT WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION AND ASCENT IN REGION OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW. CONVECTION ALLOWING
GUIDANCE (HRRR/NMM/ARW RUNS) DEPICT SEVERAL CLUSTERS DEVELOPING
AND LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING AND MIDDAY
HOURS...AND REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SEEMS TO INDICATE THIS WILL BE
THE TREND AT LEAST THROUGH THIS MORNING. THUS WHILE SYNOPTIC
FEATURES WILL BE STRONG...MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES AND FORCING REMAIN
UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. STILL...STRONG FORCING IN ADVANCE OF COLD
FRONT COUPLED WITH STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH COMPACT WAVE
SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. 00Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WARM SECTOR MLCAPES
AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG...WITH AMPLE DEEP AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR. SPC
NOTES SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO STORM MODE...LINE SEGMENTS
AS OPPOSED TO DISCRETE CELLS...THOUGH SUPERCELLULAR
CHARACTERISTICS ARE LIKELY GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT. DAMAGING WINDS
FROM LINES/LINE SEGMENTS LOOKS TO BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD
THREAT...THOUGH NORTHERN IL/SOUTHERN WI...WHERE WINDS WILL MOST
LIKELY BE BACKED MORE STRONGLY AHEAD OF THE LOW...WILL STILL HAVE
A REAL TORNADO POTENTIAL. STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE UPSCALE INTO
SQUALL-LINE AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE THREAT QUICKLY WINDING DOWN
BEFORE MIDNIGHT AFTER FROPA.

RATZER

&&

.LONG TERM...
416 AM CDT...

FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR SPREADS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TONIGHT... AS UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES
OVERNIGHT. A SECOND FAIRLY STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE DROPS
INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH FRIDAY...AND ROTATES SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN IL AND LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
DEVELOPING BENEATH COOL MID LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH...
WHICH DESPITE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE A
FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR THE IL/WI BORDER DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE DIURNAL STABILIZATION
OCCURS. TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH
MAY EVEN FALL A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY
SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER AND TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL.

LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN MOVING HIGH OFF TO THE
EAST ON SUNDAY AND DEVELOPING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS PRESENTS THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIP...MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
ON MONDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS BACK IN. MODELS BECOME MORE
DIVERGENT TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WITH TIMING OF AN UPPER LOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIP CHANCES GENERALLY LOOK TO
INCREASE BY MID-WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES...THOUGH GENERAL
MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO SLOW THINGS DOWN. IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE WARM
UP NICELY IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH 70S IN THE FORECAST FOR
TUE-WED.

RATZER

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...

* SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTN AROUND 23Z...WITH THE
  FINAL ROUND OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH ARND 2Z. SOME OF THESE
  STORMS COULD BE SEVERE.

* GUSTY SSW WINDS WITH GUSTS ARND 25 KT.

* IFR CIGS AND VSBY PSBL WITH TSRA.

* GUSTY WINDS BCMG SW TO W ARND MIDNIGHT WITH MAX GUSTS 30-35 KT.

JEE

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

STILL LOOKING AT A VERY MESSY FORECAST AS THE PIECES NECESSARY FOR
WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE NOT COMPLETELY LINING UP. THE SFC LOW IS
OVER IOWA WHILE ITS WARM FRONT STRETCHES FROM IOWA CITY IOWA
THROUGH ORD AND ITS COLD FRONT IS OVER WESTERN MO. THE LINGERING
CLOUD COVER IS INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT
THINKING STRONG LIFT FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW
STORMS TO DEVELOP. THINKING STORMS WILL GET STARTED OVER IOWA AND
CENTRAL IL AND REACH THE EASTERN TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. FOR RFD...WILL LIKELY SEE STORMS A BIT
EARLIER IN THE MID TO LATE AFTN. ONCE AGAIN SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY BE SVR WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND MAYBE AN
ISOLATED TORNADO.

THE COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
ORGANIZED STORMS EXPECTED ALONG IT. IFR VSBY AND MVFR CIGS ARE
PSBL ONCE AGAIN. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW AND W BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. GUSTY WEST WINDS WITH VFR CIGS AND VSBY ARE
EXPECTED TOMORROW.

JEE


//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTN FOLLOWED BY A
  SEGMENT OR LINE OF STORMS THIS EVENING. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
  COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND TIMING.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION BEHIND THE SCATTERED STORMS.
  WINDS COULD BE CHAOTIC FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN REDUCED VSBY UNDER STORMS...MEDIUM-LOW
  CONFIDENCE IN CIG HEIGHTS.

JEE

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

* FRIDAY NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST
  WINDS.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS. LAKE BREEZE POSSIBLE.
* SUNDAY...DRY/VFR. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS.
* MONDAY...DRY/VFR. EAST WINDS.
* TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. SOUTH WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...

416 AM...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY MORNING AS IT DEEPENS. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LAKE AHEAD
OF THIS LOW. EASTERLY WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTHERLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE TODAY WITH SPEEDS STEADILY
INCREASING. WITH THE LOW DEEPENING AS IT PASSES WEST OF THE
LAKE...WIND SPEEDS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO REACH GALE FORCE THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY FROM THE WEST. HOISTED A GALE
WATCH THIS MORNING BUT IF TRENDS CONTINUE EXPECT A GALE WARNING TO
BE NEEDED LATER TODAY. POSSIBLE GALES MAY EXTEND A BIT FURTHER
NORTH THEN CURRENT WATCH...BUT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF
THE LOW. WINDS DIMINISH SOME FRIDAY AND THEN DIMINISH TO 10-15KT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. CMS

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 PM THURSDAY.

     GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
     LMZ779...10 PM THURSDAY TO 1 PM FRIDAY.

&&

$$

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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1255 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1007 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

15z/10am surface analysis shows 1000mb low centered just north of
Kansas City, with warm front extending eastward into northern
Illinois. Front has now lifted north of the KILX CWA, placing the
entire area firmly in the warm sector. Widespread early morning
convection is in the process of exiting into northern Indiana,
leaving behind just scattered showers/storms for the time being.
Further upstream, the next upper-level impulse is triggering a
renewed round of convection across western Missouri. Based on
timing tools and the latest HRRR guidance, this activity will move
into the SW CWA between 17z and 18z. Once this wave departs,
attention will turn to the approaching cold front which is still
on target for a late afternoon/early evening arrival. Airmass
ahead of the front will become moderately unstable and highly
sheared, so threat for strong to severe thunderstorms is still
present. Current indications suggest the primary time frame will
be from 21z/4pm through 03z/10pm. Damaging wind gusts will be the
main threat with the storms, although large hail and isolated
tornadoes will also be possible as the cells first begin to
develop. Made some changes to hourly PoPs to better reflect
current and expected trends, but changes were minor and did not
require a full zone update at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

Latest surface analysis shows the warm front has lifted to the I-74
corridor early this morning with a chaotic wind field across most of
the forecast area. Not sure what the affect the current scattered
convection will have on the position of the frontal boundary thru
the morning hours, but most of the models suggest a continued slow
push to the north as the main surface low tracks northeast to
central Iowa by late this morning. Current thinking is that the cold
front will be positioned just west of the Mississippi River by 21z
with surface based convection developing ahead of the front at that
time as well. Better low level helicity fields supportive of
discrete supercells and possible tornadoes looks to be closer to the
track of the surface low...which by late afternoon is expected to be
in far southwest Wisconsin or northwest Illinois. That would put the
threat for more persistent low level rotating storms just to our
west and north. However, still plenty of shear ahead of the frontal
boundary this afternoon and early this evening to promote damaging
straight line winds as the storms transition into more of a linear
system. Temperature-wise, with the warm front to our north this
afternoon, will continue to go with the warmer guid values most
areas. Latest model data now suggests the backedge of the precip
pushes out of our far southeast counties by midnight, so will extend
the Flash Flood Watch until that time this evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

Showers and thunderstorms, possibly severe, will be ongoing across
at least the eastern half of the forecast area to start this
evening. Despite the short forecast range, there is still some
spread in the expected cold frontal timing. However, it appears
reasonable that the front will lie somewhere between the Illinois
River and the I-55 corridor by 00Z Friday. Sped up the decrease in
shower/storm chances by mid evening, and I would not be surprised to
see the precipitation chances taper off a few hours earlier,
especially if the squall line gets a head of steam and trends
further ahead of the front than current progs.

Once the front clears the area tonight, quiet conditions, along with
much cooler and less humid air will build across the region into
Sunday. These conditions will be driven by a large area of high
pressure of Canadian origin. While conditions will be notably
cooler/less humid, they will still be at or above normal for early
April.

The next precipitation chances will arrive later Sunday into Sunday
night as a cold front is dragged across the area. While this front
is still expected to stall out at it begins to parallel the
upper-level flow, model trends suggest the front will stall out
further south than previously anticipated. If these trends persist,
Monday and Monday night will end up dry. For now, have reduced but
not eliminated PoPs Monday/Monday night until we see if this recent
model trend sticks.

A slow moving upper-level disturbance will push the front back into
the area by Tuesday, bringing renewed shower/storm chances. The
front and/or upper level disturbances will keep the rain chances
going into the end of the work week. Temperatures should remain at
or above normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

Strong southwesterly winds will prevail this afternoon, with
frequent gusts to between 25 and 35kt. Convection will initially
be isolated, but will become more widespread by late afternoon
into the early evening as a cold front moves in from the west.
High-res models are in good agreement that a line of storms will
develop along the advancing front near/west of the Mississippi
River by mid to late afternoon, then push eastward into Illinois
after that. Based on HRRR timing, have included a TEMPO group for
thunder at KPIA between 23z and 01z, then further east to KCMI
between 02z and 04z. Once storms pass, winds will veer to the west
and increase and remain quite gusty through the night. In
addition, MVFR ceilings currently across western Iowa into Kansas
will spill eastward, with forecast soundings suggesting low clouds
remaining in place until close to dawn Friday. After that, am
expecting mostly clear skies with continued brisk westerly winds
Friday morning.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR ILZ054>057-061>063-
066>068-071>073.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Barnes







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 1105 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

.SHORT TERM...
400 AM CDT

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

DENSE FOG CONTINUES IN COOL/SATURATED AIR MASS WITH NORTHEAST
WINDS OFF THE LAKE THIS MORNING...WILL MAINTAIN DENSE FOG ADVISORY
ALONG THE LAKE AS ISSUED.

CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE MIDWEST...IN A REGION OF BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION ATOP NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH STRETCHES
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN IOWA...THEN EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. THESE CLUSTERS OF STORMS WERE
GENERALLY TIED TO INDIVIDUAL MINOR-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
FEATURES...AND ASSOCIATED LOCALIZED ENHANCED MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND ASCENT. TO THE WEST...STRONG UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING ONTO THE
PLAINS EAST OF THE ROCKIES...AND IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE MID-
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COMPACT AND
SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY-TILTED ENERGETIC DISTURBANCE. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS AT THIS HOUR WILL
DEEPEN AND LIFT TO SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN/FAR NORTHWEST IL PER
COMPLIMENTING GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS...WITH THE FRONT LIFTING NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS PATTERN HAS ALL THE
EARMARKS OF BEING A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER PRODUCER ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WITH THAT SAID...QUESTIONS REMAIN WITH RESPECT TO EVOLUTION OF
STORMS LATER TODAY...MAINLY DUE TO THE EXPECTATION THAT SEVERAL
CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY DUE TO PERSISTENT WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION AND ASCENT IN REGION OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW. CONVECTION ALLOWING
GUIDANCE (HRRR/NMM/ARW RUNS) DEPICT SEVERAL CLUSTERS DEVELOPING
AND LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING AND MIDDAY
HOURS...AND REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SEEMS TO INDICATE THIS WILL BE
THE TREND AT LEAST THROUGH THIS MORNING. THUS WHILE SYNOPTIC
FEATURES WILL BE STRONG...MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES AND FORCING REMAIN
UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. STILL...STRONG FORCING IN ADVANCE OF COLD
FRONT COUPLED WITH STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH COMPACT WAVE
SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. 00Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WARM SECTOR MLCAPES
AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG...WITH AMPLE DEEP AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR. SPC
NOTES SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO STORM MODE...LINE SEGMENTS
AS OPPOSED TO DISCRETE CELLS...THOUGH SUPERCELLULAR
CHARACTERISTICS ARE LIKELY GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT. DAMAGING WINDS
FROM LINES/LINE SEGMENTS LOOKS TO BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD
THREAT...THOUGH NORTHERN IL/SOUTHERN WI...WHERE WINDS WILL MOST
LIKELY BE BACKED MORE STRONGLY AHEAD OF THE LOW...WILL STILL HAVE
A REAL TORNADO POTENTIAL. STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE UPSCALE INTO
SQUALL-LINE AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE THREAT QUICKLY WINDING DOWN
BEFORE MIDNIGHT AFTER FROPA.

RATZER

&&

.LONG TERM...
416 AM CDT...

FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR SPREADS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TONIGHT... AS UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES
OVERNIGHT. A SECOND FAIRLY STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE DROPS
INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH FRIDAY...AND ROTATES SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN IL AND LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
DEVELOPING BENEATH COOL MID LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH...
WHICH DESPITE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE A
FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR THE IL/WI BORDER DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE DIURNAL STABILIZATION
OCCURS. TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH
MAY EVEN FALL A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY
SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER AND TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL.

LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN MOVING HIGH OFF TO THE
EAST ON SUNDAY AND DEVELOPING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS PRESENTS THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIP...MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
ON MONDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS BACK IN. MODELS BECOME MORE
DIVERGENT TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WITH TIMING OF AN UPPER LOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIP CHANCES GENERALLY LOOK TO
INCREASE BY MID-WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES...THOUGH GENERAL
MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO SLOW THINGS DOWN. IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE WARM
UP NICELY IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH 70S IN THE FORECAST FOR
TUE-WED.

RATZER

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...

* ONE FINAL WAVE OF TS PUSHING EAST BY LATE MORNING.

* IFR VSBY IMPROVING TO VFR LATER THIS MORNING.

* SE WINDS BCMG SOUTH TO SW AND GUSTING TO ARND 25 KT. WINDS BCMG
  WEST OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.

* ANOTHER ROUND OR TWO OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
  EVENING. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

JEE

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. END TIME IN THE 14Z-15Z LOOKS ON TRACK WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT NEAR VYS. POSSIBLE FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED ACTIVITY
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND
WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHEN A LINE
OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT AND MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THRU EARLY THIS EVENING.

EAST WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND SOUTHERLY BY LATE
MORNING. SPEEDS/GUSTS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH/
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOME STRONG THIS EVENING WITH
SPEEDS 20-25KTS POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS 30-35KTS. DIRECTIONS WILL TURN
MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING SOME OVERNIGHT.

CIGS/VIS ON THE DECK ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE QUICKLY THIS MORNING
BUT SPECIFIC HEIGHTS/TIMING IS LOW AND WILL LIKELY REQUIRE SOME
UPDATES THIS MORNING. CIGS SHOULD BECOME MVFR OR BETTER BY LATE
MORNING WITH IFR/LIFR POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.
CMS

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
  MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING...COVERAGE...AND SEVERITY.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WINDS...WINDS THIS AFTN MAY BE MORE CHAOTIC
  WITH THUNDERSTORMS...AND WINDS MAY BE GUSTIER THIS EVENING AND
  OVERNIGHT.

JEE

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

* FRIDAY NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST
  WINDS.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS. LAKE BREEZE POSSIBLE.
* SUNDAY...DRY/VFR. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS.
* MONDAY...DRY/VFR. EAST WINDS.
* TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. SOUTH WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...

416 AM...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY MORNING AS IT DEEPENS. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LAKE AHEAD
OF THIS LOW. EASTERLY WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTHERLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE TODAY WITH SPEEDS STEADILY
INCREASING. WITH THE LOW DEEPENING AS IT PASSES WEST OF THE
LAKE...WIND SPEEDS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO REACH GALE FORCE THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY FROM THE WEST. HOISTED A GALE
WATCH THIS MORNING BUT IF TRENDS CONTINUE EXPECT A GALE WARNING TO
BE NEEDED LATER TODAY. POSSIBLE GALES MAY EXTEND A BIT FURTHER
NORTH THEN CURRENT WATCH...BUT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF
THE LOW. WINDS DIMINISH SOME FRIDAY AND THEN DIMINISH TO 10-15KT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. CMS

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 PM THURSDAY.

     GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
     LMZ779...10 PM THURSDAY TO 1 PM FRIDAY.

&&

$$

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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1007 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1007 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

15z/10am surface analysis shows 1000mb low centered just north of
Kansas City, with warm front extending eastward into northern
Illinois. Front has now lifted north of the KILX CWA, placing the
entire area firmly in the warm sector. Widespread early morning
convection is in the process of exiting into northern Indiana,
leaving behind just scattered showers/storms for the time being.
Further upstream, the next upper-level impulse is triggering a
renewed round of convection across western Missouri. Based on
timing tools and the latest HRRR guidance, this activity will move
into the SW CWA between 17z and 18z. Once this wave departs,
attention will turn to the approaching cold front which is still
on target for a late afternoon/early evening arrival. Airmass
ahead of the front will become moderately unstable and highly
sheared, so threat for strong to severe thunderstorms is still
present. Current indications suggest the primary time frame will
be from 21z/4pm through 03z/10pm. Damaging wind gusts will be the
main threat with the storms, although large hail and isolated
tornadoes will also be possible as the cells first begin to
develop. Made some changes to hourly PoPs to better reflect
current and expected trends, but changes were minor and did not
require a full zone update at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

Latest surface analysis shows the warm front has lifted to the I-74
corridor early this morning with a chaotic wind field across most of
the forecast area. Not sure what the affect the current scattered
convection will have on the position of the frontal boundary thru
the morning hours, but most of the models suggest a continued slow
push to the north as the main surface low tracks northeast to
central Iowa by late this morning. Current thinking is that the cold
front will be positioned just west of the Mississippi River by 21z
with surface based convection developing ahead of the front at that
time as well. Better low level helicity fields supportive of
discrete supercells and possible tornadoes looks to be closer to the
track of the surface low...which by late afternoon is expected to be
in far southwest Wisconsin or northwest Illinois. That would put the
threat for more persistent low level rotating storms just to our
west and north. However, still plenty of shear ahead of the frontal
boundary this afternoon and early this evening to promote damaging
straight line winds as the storms transition into more of a linear
system. Temperature-wise, with the warm front to our north this
afternoon, will continue to go with the warmer guid values most
areas. Latest model data now suggests the backedge of the precip
pushes out of our far southeast counties by midnight, so will extend
the Flash Flood Watch until that time this evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

Showers and thunderstorms, possibly severe, will be ongoing across
at least the eastern half of the forecast area to start this
evening. Despite the short forecast range, there is still some
spread in the expected cold frontal timing. However, it appears
reasonable that the front will lie somewhere between the Illinois
River and the I-55 corridor by 00Z Friday. Sped up the decrease in
shower/storm chances by mid evening, and I would not be surprised to
see the precipitation chances taper off a few hours earlier,
especially if the squall line gets a head of steam and trends
further ahead of the front than current progs.

Once the front clears the area tonight, quiet conditions, along with
much cooler and less humid air will build across the region into
Sunday. These conditions will be driven by a large area of high
pressure of Canadian origin. While conditions will be notably
cooler/less humid, they will still be at or above normal for early
April.

The next precipitation chances will arrive later Sunday into Sunday
night as a cold front is dragged across the area. While this front
is still expected to stall out at it begins to parallel the
upper-level flow, model trends suggest the front will stall out
further south than previously anticipated. If these trends persist,
Monday and Monday night will end up dry. For now, have reduced but
not eliminated PoPs Monday/Monday night until we see if this recent
model trend sticks.

A slow moving upper-level disturbance will push the front back into
the area by Tuesday, bringing renewed shower/storm chances. The
front and/or upper level disturbances will keep the rain chances
going into the end of the work week. Temperatures should remain at
or above normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

Active weather day across the region with scattered thunderstorms
this morning, with storms expected to redevelop this afternoon and
evening along a cold front. Some of those storms will be severe
with damaging wind gusts and hail possible. VFR cigs expected
outside any storms, however, with any strong storm, look for cigs
and vsbys to briefly drop to IFR at times. Gradient winds are
expected to be rather gusty today out of the south and southwest
with prevailing speeds of 15 to 25 kts with gusts around 35 kts
at times. Cold front timing looks to be around the PIA site by 23z
and should be east of our TAF sites by 02z. It appears the strongest
storms will be about an hour or two ahead of the actual cold front
this afternoon and evening.

Look for sfc winds to become southwest with FROPA and with the storm
system expected to deepen, a rather tight pressure gradient will
produce a period of strong and gusty winds out of the southwest
just after the passage of the cold front late this afternoon into
the evening. Some gusts may be around 35 kts at times just after
the front shifts to the east of a TAF sites early this evening.
Expect the strong gusts to slowly subside, but not until after
03z.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR ILZ054>057-061>063-
066>068-071>073.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Smith







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 401 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

.SHORT TERM...
400 AM CDT

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

DENSE FOG CONTINUES IN COOL/SATURATED AIR MASS WITH NORTHEAST
WINDS OFF THE LAKE THIS MORNING...WILL MAINTAIN DENSE FOG ADVISORY
ALONG THE LAKE AS ISSUED.

CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE MIDWEST...IN A REGION OF BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION ATOP NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH STRETCHES
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN IOWA...THEN EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. THESE CLUSTERS OF STORMS WERE
GENERALLY TIED TO INDIVIDUAL MINOR-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
FEATURES...AND ASSOCIATED LOCALIZED ENHANCED MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND ASCENT. TO THE WEST...STRONG UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING ONTO THE
PLAINS EAST OF THE ROCKIES...AND IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE MID-
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COMPACT AND
SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY-TILTED ENERGETIC DISTURBANCE. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS AT THIS HOUR WILL
DEEPEN AND LIFT TO SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN/FAR NORTHWEST IL PER
COMPLIMENTING GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS...WITH THE FRONT LIFTING NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS PATTERN HAS ALL THE
EARMARKS OF BEING A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER PRODUCER ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WITH THAT SAID...QUESTIONS REMAIN WITH RESPECT TO EVOLUTION OF
STORMS LATER TODAY...MAINLY DUE TO THE EXPECTATION THAT SEVERAL
CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY DUE TO PERSISTENT WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION AND ASCENT IN REGION OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW. CONVECTION ALLOWING
GUIDANCE (HRRR/NMM/ARW RUNS) DEPICT SEVERAL CLUSTERS DEVELOPING
AND LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING AND MIDDAY
HOURS...AND REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SEEMS TO INDICATE THIS WILL BE
THE TREND AT LEAST THROUGH THIS MORNING. THUS WHILE SYNOPTIC
FEATURES WILL BE STRONG...MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES AND FORCING REMAIN
UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. STILL...STRONG FORCING IN ADVANCE OF COLD
FRONT COUPLED WITH STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH COMPACT WAVE
SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. 00Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WARM SECTOR MLCAPES
AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG...WITH AMPLE DEEP AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR. SPC
NOTES SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO STORM MODE...LINE SEGMENTS
AS OPPOSED TO DISCRETE CELLS...THOUGH SUPERCELLULAR
CHARACTERISTICS ARE LIKELY GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT. DAMAGING WINDS
FROM LINES/LINE SEGMENTS LOOKS TO BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD
THREAT...THOUGH NORTHERN IL/SOUTHERN WI...WHERE WINDS WILL MOST
LIKELY BE BACKED MORE STRONGLY AHEAD OF THE LOW...WILL STILL HAVE
A REAL TORNADO POTENTIAL. STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE UPSCALE INTO
SQUALL-LINE AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE THREAT QUICKLY WINDING DOWN
BEFORE MIDNIGHT AFTER FROPA.

RATZER

&&

.LONG TERM...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL ROLL THROUGH SOUTHERN WI ON FRIDAY. THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD NORTHEAST
IL CLOSER TO THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE MIDWEST FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AND BRING QUIET WEATHER. CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S... COLDEST NEAR
THE WI BORDER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 60S
SATURDAY WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE AREA.

SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY...
SO NO PRECIP IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS NORTHEAST IL DURING THE DAY.

LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS SOUNDINGS SHOW MINIMAL INSTABILITY
SO I LEFT OUT THUNDER.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

MODELS ARE SLOWING DOWN THE SPEED OF THE WARM FRONTAL PRECIP INTO
CENTRAL IL ON MONDAY. THUS... CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE DECREASING. BY MONDAY NIGHT... THE WARM FRONT WILL MAKE IT INTO
EITHER NORTHERN IL OR SOUTHERN WI. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND IT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

MRC

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THRU MID MORNING.
* STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
* IFR/LIFR THRU MID MORNING.
* EAST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING...THEN STRONG/GUSTY
  SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. CMS

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA CURRENTLY ARE EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE FIRST WAVE.
SOMEWHAT CONFIDNET OF AT LEAST A FEW HOUR BREAK BEFORE ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP SOUTHWEST OF THE TERMINALS AND
MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD DAYBREAK INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS...BUT
TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AND UPDATES/CHANGES TO CURRENT TIMING ARE
POSSIBLE. ASSUMING THIS SECOND WAVE EXITS THE AREA BY LATE
MORNING...EARLY/MID AFTERNOON COULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE
AFTERNOON THRU MID EVENING WITH ONLY LOW/MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
REGARDING TIMING.

IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THRU DAYBREAK POSSIBLY INTO MID
MORNING WHEN WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTHERLY BY
LATE MORNING. CIGS WILL LIFT TO AT LEAST MVFR AND MAY BECOME VFR
FOR A TIME. IFR/LIFR POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND BECOME QUITE STRONG/GUSTY BY LATE AFTERNOON THEN
SHIFT MORE WEST/SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.
CMS

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* MEDIUM FOR THUNDERSTORM TRENDS/TIMING THRU THE PERIOD.
* MEDIUM FOR WINDS THRU THE PERIOD.
* LOW/MEDIUM FOR CIGS THRU MID MORNING. CMS

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

* FRIDAY...DRY/VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS. SHC SHRA FRI EVENING.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTH WINDS. LAKE BREEZE POSSIBLE.
* SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. SOUTH WINDS.
* MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...

333 PM... AN INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEADING TO NNE
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THERE IS ALSO A FAVORABLE FETCH FOR HIGH
WAVES IN THE NEARSHORE ZONES. EXPECT THIS TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT.

WESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BRING GUSTY WINDS TO ALL OF LAKE MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN ARE POSSIBLE.

BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN. WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE...
BUT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY BE MET OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
NORTHEAST IL.   MRC

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...ILZ006-ILZ014 UNTIL 9 AM THURSDAY.

IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
     UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY.

     GALE WATCH...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
     LMZ779...10 PM THURSDAY TO 1 PM FRIDAY.

&&

$$

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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
303 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

Latest surface analysis shows the warm front has lifted to the I-74
corridor early this morning with a chaotic wind field across most of
the forecast area. Not sure what the affect the current scattered
convection will have on the position of the frontal boundary thru
the morning hours, but most of the models suggest a continued slow
push to the north as the main surface low tracks northeast to
central Iowa by late this morning. Current thinking is that the cold
front will be positioned just west of the Mississippi River by 21z
with surface based convection developing ahead of the front at that
time as well. Better low level helicity fields supportive of
discrete supercells and possible tornadoes looks to be closer to the
track of the surface low...which by late afternoon is expected to be
in far southwest Wisconsin or northwest Illinois. That would put the
threat for more persistent low level rotating storms just to our
west and north. However, still plenty of shear ahead of the frontal
boundary this afternoon and early this evening to promote damaging
straight line winds as the storms transition into more of a linear
system. Temperature-wise, with the warm front to our north this
afternoon, will continue to go with the warmer guid values most
areas. Latest model data now suggests the backedge of the precip
pushes out of our far southeast counties by midnight, so will extend
the Flash Flood Watch until that time this evening.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

Showers and thunderstorms, possibly severe, will be ongoing across
at least the eastern half of the forecast area to start this
evening. Despite the short forecast range, there is still some
spread in the expected cold frontal timing. However, it appears
reasonable that the front will lie somewhere between the Illinois
River and the I-55 corridor by 00Z Friday. Sped up the decrease in
shower/storm chances by mid evening, and I would not be surprised to
see the precipitation chances taper off a few hours earlier,
especially if the squall line gets a head of steam and trends
further ahead of the front than current progs.

Once the front clears the area tonight, quiet conditions, along with
much cooler and less humid air will build across the region into
Sunday. These conditions will be driven by a large area of high
pressure of Canadian origin. While conditions will be notably
cooler/less humid, they will still be at or above normal for early
April.

The next precipitation chances will arrive later Sunday into Sunday
night as a cold front is dragged across the area. While this front
is still expected to stall out at it begins to parallel the
upper-level flow, model trends suggest the front will stall out
further south than previously anticipated. If these trends persist,
Monday and Monday night will end up dry. For now, have reduced but
not eliminated PoPs Monday/Monday night until we see if this recent
model trend sticks.

A slow moving upper-level disturbance will push the front back into
the area by Tuesday, bringing renewed shower/storm chances. The
front and/or upper level disturbances will keep the rain chances
going into the end of the work week. Temperatures should remain at
or above normal through the period.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015

A broken line of showers and storms are progressing from SW to NE
across our forecast area. Steady rains will clip CMI over the
first hour of this TAF period, otherwise the other terminals could
see a few hours of dry conditions before showers and storms re-
develop directly over central IL. Elevated instability and
moisture appear sufficient for a continued storm threat through
the night. Localized IFR conditions could develop in any heavy
rains, but mainly expect VFR conditions to drop to MVFR
periodically overnight due to areas of low clouds as well as
precip.

The latest HRRR continues to indicate an expansion of coverage of
showers and storms across our area tonight, which may linger past
sunrise tomorrow before a break develops late morning through mid
afternoon. Timing of any storms at the terminal sites is
difficult, but will keep at least VCTS during the expected
windows of opportunity.

Wind patterns have been variable around storms, with prevailing
direction from the SE. DEC gusted to 41 MPH at 04z/11pm due to
storms. Ambient airflows have seen E-SE winds of 10-15kt, and that
should continue the rest of the night based on the position of the
frontal boundary. Once the storms depart to the east tomorrow
morning, winds will shift to the southwest, and increase to
15-20kt sustained, with gusts to 30kt by afternoon. The next round
of strong to severe storms is projected for Thursday afternoon and
evening, with damaging winds, hail and even a few tornadoes possible
across central IL.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR ILZ054>057-061>063-
066>068-071>073.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Shimon







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 1252 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

.UPDATE...

IMPROVED NEAR THE LAKESHORE THIS EVENING I AM A BIT
HESITANT TO DROP THE ONGOING FOG ADVISORY...AS CONDITIONS COULD
FAVOR IT TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. IT STILL APPEARS THAT AS THE WARM
FRONT AND HIGH DEW POINT AIR BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE
COLDER AIR MASS OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT THAT FOG COULD
REDEVELOP OVER THE AREA. FOR THIS REASON...I WILL LEAVE THE
ADVISORY IN PLACE.

IT STILL APPEARS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE IN LINE FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. RADAR IMAGERY IS INDICATING WIDELY SCATTERED
CELLS TRYING TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND WESTERN ILLINOIS
ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION. THE 00 UTC SOUNDINGS
OUT OF KDVN AND KILX INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF VERY STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH AN EML. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WAS
LACKING A ABOVE THE INVERSION...LIMITING THE ELEVATED CAPE. THIS
SEEMS TO BE WHY THE ACTIVITY IS SLOW TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...WITH A 40+ KT LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE SETTING UP...MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD RESULT IN A
RAPID MOISTENING AROUND 850 MB BENEATH THESE STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...LIKELY RESULTING IN AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT
WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SOME HEAVY DOWN POURS AND HAIL.

KJB

&&

.SHORT TERM...
322 PM CDT

THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

QUITE THE CHALLENGING SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBILITIES THROUGHOUT THE TIME AND PROBABLE RAPIDLY SOARING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WHOLE AREA FIRST THING FRIDAY MORNING. THE
MAIN TIME FOR POSSIBLE SURFACE-BASED SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING
WIND AND POSSIBLE TORNADO CONCERNS...CONTINUES TO BE
MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING ON THURSDAY.

THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS OF 3
PM...INCLUDING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. A 1011MB
SURFACE LOW REFLECTION IS SEEN IN THE WIND ALONG THIS NEAR
DECATUR/CHAMPAIGN...WITH FESTERING NEAR OR SURFACE BASED STORMS
JUST AHEAD OF THIS NEAR THE I-74 CORRIDOR OCCASIONALLY PULSING
WITH HIGHER CORES. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE LIKELY PRESENCE OF VERY SUBTLE MID-LEVEL IMPULSES ACROSS
IA/IL/NORTHERN MO...ALL AHEAD OF AN INCREASING UPPER JET NOSING
EASTWARD INTO THE OZARK REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THESE PESKY MID-LEVEL FEATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING WITH OVERALL UPPER SUPPORT FOR LIFT GRADUALLY IMPROVING.
ONE PROBLEM FOR RAPIDLY INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS
EVENING IS THAT THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
LOOK TO NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WHICH SEEMS NECESSARY TO TAP THE ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER/VERY STEEP ELEVATED LAPSE RATES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND
STRONGER CONVECTION. ALSO...STORMS ACROSS THE OZARKS INTO MO AND
SW IL MAY LIMIT THE EFFECTIVENESS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO OUR
AREA...AT LEAST AT FIRST THIS EVENING. A FURTHER HINDRANCE TO
CONFIDENCE FOR TONIGHT IS THAT CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS HAVE
REALLY STRUGGLED AND DIVERGED WITH HOW TONIGHT WILL PAN OUT FOR
STORM COVERAGE. HAVE GONE WITH THE THOUGHT LATER THIS EVENING INTO
OVERNIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH HIGHER LIKELIHOOD FOR
STORMS...BUT CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT SCATTERED EVENING ACTIVITY
WITHIN THE BROAD WARM ADVECTIVE ZONE. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
LAPSE RATES AND HIGH LEVELS OF CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH
ZONE...LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MOST PROBABLE
THREAT...WITH ANY WIND THREATS REALLY SOUTH OF I-80...IF NOT EVEN
SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 24.

AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE RESPONSE SHOULD ALLOW THE WARM FRONT TO
CREEP NORTHWARD...AND MAYBE AT A QUICK RATE IF NOT MUCH CONVECTION
IS PRESENT. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN WARM AND QUITE QUICKLY WITH THE
FRONT PASSAGE...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE 70S
THURSDAY...EVEN WITH MORNING STORM ACTIVITY. AROUND 80 DEGREES IS
POSSIBLE JUST GIVEN OBSERVATION TRENDS TO OUR SOUTH TODAY.

THE WARM SECTOR IS LIKELY TO HAVE AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED STORMS
THROUGH THE MORNING AND MAYBE EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES PRESENT. THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME RESULT ON
REGENERATION/RE-INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS...BUT ITS POSSIBLE ANY
FESTERING ELEVATED STORMS ARE ABLE TO ROOT LOWER AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES AND BUOYANCY IMPROVES. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF A
QUICKLY MOVING CLIMATOLOGICALLY COLD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS A WARM
SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY EARLY APRIL DEW POINTS IN THE 60S
CERTAINLY FAVORS ORGANIZED STORM POTENTIAL...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS
WITH SIGNIFICANT SEVERE POTENTIAL...AS FURTHER VERIFIED BY
SEVERAL OF THE TOP MATCHING CIPS ANALOGS /SIMILAR SCENARIOS/.
HOWEVER...SEVERAL ANALOGS SHOW VERY LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER...AS
THE PRESENT INGREDIENTS JUST DID NOT LINE UP PERFECTLY AS CAN
OFTEN BE THE CASE IN MODERATE/STRONG DYNAMIC SITUATIONS. SO
CONFIDENCE REMAINS MINIMAL ON COVERAGE OF HIGHER INTENSITY
STORMS...BUT AT THIS JUNCTURE WOULD BE SURPRISED TO NOT HAVE AT
LEAST AN UPTICK IN LOWER ROOTED STORMS DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING PERIOD MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. WHILE THE NORTHERN CWA MAY HAVE MORE BACKED LOW-LEVEL
FLOW...THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE UNDER A STRONG SSW 50-55 KT LOW-
LEVEL JET WHICH WOULD KEEP SOME THREATS OF SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HAIL WILL
REMAIN THE GREATEST CONCERN...ESPECIALLY WITH THE AFTERNOON
ACTIVITY...BUT SOME ORGANIZED STRONG WINDS OR TORNADOES IN THE
REGION ARE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON STORM MODE/COVERAGE.

STORMS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 9 PM-12 AM THURSDAY EVENING
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WRAPPING IN ON GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.

MTF

&&

.LONG TERM...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL ROLL THROUGH SOUTHERN WI ON FRIDAY. THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD NORTHEAST
IL CLOSER TO THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE MIDWEST FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AND BRING QUIET WEATHER. CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S... COLDEST NEAR
THE WI BORDER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 60S
SATURDAY WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE AREA.

SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY...
SO NO PRECIP IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS NORTHEAST IL DURING THE DAY.

LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS SOUNDINGS SHOW MINIMAL INSTABILITY
SO I LEFT OUT THUNDER.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

MODELS ARE SLOWING DOWN THE SPEED OF THE WARM FRONTAL PRECIP INTO
CENTRAL IL ON MONDAY. THUS... CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE DECREASING. BY MONDAY NIGHT... THE WARM FRONT WILL MAKE IT INTO
EITHER NORTHERN IL OR SOUTHERN WI. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND IT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

MRC

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THRU MID MORNING.
* STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
* IFR/LIFR THRU MID MORNING.
* EAST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING...THEN STRONG/GUSTY
  SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. CMS

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA CURRENTLY ARE EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE FIRST WAVE.
SOMEWHAT CONFIDNET OF AT LEAST A FEW HOUR BREAK BEFORE ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP SOUTHWEST OF THE TERMINALS AND
MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD DAYBREAK INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS...BUT
TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AND UPDATES/CHANGES TO CURRENT TIMING ARE
POSSIBLE. ASSUMING THIS SECOND WAVE EXITS THE AREA BY LATE
MORNING...EARLY/MID AFTERNOON COULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE
AFTERNOON THRU MID EVENING WITH ONLY LOW/MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
REGARDING TIMING.

IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THRU DAYBREAK POSSIBLY INTO MID
MORNING WHEN WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTHERLY BY
LATE MORNING. CIGS WILL LIFT TO AT LEAST MVFR AND MAY BECOME VFR
FOR A TIME. IFR/LIFR POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND BECOME QUITE STRONG/GUSTY BY LATE AFTERNOON THEN
SHIFT MORE WEST/SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.
CMS

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* MEDIUM FOR THUNDERSTORM TRENDS/TIMING THRU THE PERIOD.
* MEDIUM FOR WINDS THRU THE PERIOD.
* LOW/MEDIUM FOR CIGS THRU MID MORNING. CMS

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

* FRIDAY...DRY/VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS. SHC SHRA FRI EVENING.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTH WINDS. LAKE BREEZE POSSIBLE.
* SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. SOUTH WINDS.
* MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...

333 PM... AN INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEADING TO NNE
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THERE IS ALSO A FAVORABLE FETCH FOR HIGH
WAVES IN THE NEARSHORE ZONES. EXPECT THIS TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT.

WESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BRING GUSTY WINDS TO ALL OF LAKE MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN ARE POSSIBLE.

BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN. WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE...
BUT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY BE MET OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
NORTHEAST IL.   MRC

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...ILZ006-ILZ014 UNTIL 9 AM THURSDAY.

IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY.

&&

$$

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

 708 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1115 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT RESULTING IN
DIMINISHING WINDS. FAIR WEATHER WILL THEN CONTINUE SATURDAY AS
THE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID
30S WITH HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2015

987MB SURFACE LOW LIFTING INTO QUEBEC AT PRESS TIME WITH A
SECONDARY VORT MAX AND SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH CURRENTLY ROTATING
THROUGH CHICAGO. BRIEF RELAXATION OF PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY HAS ALLOWED WIND SPEEDS TO SUBSIDE A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM SURFACE OBS SHOW NUMEROUS GUSTS OVER
40 KTS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY DEEP MIXING HEIGHTS IN PLACE OVER OUR AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH 50 KT WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND A GOOD PUSH OF ISENTROPIC DESCENT SEEN MOVING IN BEHIND
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. MSAS ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS A DECENT PRESSURE
RISE-FALL COUPLET ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THAT MAY BE HELPING PRODUCE
THE HIGHER WIND GUSTS. WE DO START TO LOSE DIURNAL SURFACE
HEATING/BETTER PBL MIXING BY THE TIME THIS TROUGH MAKES IT TO OUR
AREA BUT AM CONCERNED WE COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES...DURING THE EARLY
EVENING AND AM HESITANT TO SOUND THE "ALL CLEAR" ON STRONG WIND
GUSTS. HAVE THEREFORE DECIDED TO EXTEND AND EXPAND THE WIND
ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN PLACE.

THIS SECONDARY PV ANOMALY...EXTENDING DEEP INTO THE
TROPOSPHERE...MAY ALSO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AS IT ROTATES THROUGH
THE REGION THIS EVENING. UPSTREAM RADAR/SURFACE OBS SHOW DECENT
SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...OCCURRING WITH THIS WAVE
AND SUSPECT SIMILAR RESULTS IN OUR LOCAL AREA. MOST OF THE LATEST
HI-RES/RAPID UPDATE MODELS GENERATE AT LEAST SOME QPF IN OUR
NORTHERN CWA AND SEE NO REASON TO ARGUE BASED ON STRENGTH/DEPTH OF
THE ANOMALY SEEN IN BOTH WV IMAGERY AND MODEL PLAN VIEWS. HAVE
THEREFORE RAISED POPS FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES IN THE 22-03Z
TIMEFRAME. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THESE SHOWERS COULD HELP MIX DOWN
SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE THIS
EVENING....PROVIDING FURTHER SUPPORT FOR A SIMPLE EXTENSION OF THE
CURRENT WIND ADVISORY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD EASILY DROP INTO THE MID 30S UNDER STRONG CAA.
STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO INHERITED FORECAST...WHICH WAS SIMILAR TO
LATEST MOS GUIDANCE. WELCOME RETURN TO MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER BY
TOMORROW AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE ANTICYCLONE BUILD
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. SOME LATE DAY WAA AND FULL SUN SHOULD PUSH US TO
AROUND 60F DESPITE COOL START.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2015

LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OUT QUIET...WITH AN AMPLIFYING 500MB
RIDGE ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
SATURDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL START OUT CLEAR IN THE EVENING...THEN
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WEST AND CENTRAL AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOWS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE BUT NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST GIVEN
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. KEPT GOING FORECAST OF TEMPS IN THE
MID-UPPER 30S.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND FORECAST COMPLEXITY RETURN LATE
WEEKEND AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...WITH A COMPLICATED
PATTERN AND THE ASSOCIATED MODEL DISAGREEMENT.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING THE CWA SITS ON THE OUTER EDGE OF THE SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH BY THIS TIME IS JUST OFF THE EASTERN US
COAST. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS VARIOUS SHORTWAVES PROPAGATE THROUGH THE
FLOW FROM THE DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER MANITOBA. BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH/COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM MN/WI SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GENERAL DISAGREEMENT
AMONG MODELS ON EXACT TIMING OF ANY PRECIPITATION...WITH THE GFS
BEING MOST PROGRESSIVE AND DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN OUR CWA...AND THE NAM/GEM ECMWF
WAITING UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING TO BRING IN PRECIPITATION.
THE ECMWF CAMP IS ALSO A BIT SHARPER WITH THE UL TROUGH...WHEREAS
THE GFS IS MORE BROAD. DECIDED TO GO WITH A GFS/ECMWF COMPROMISE FOR
NOW WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF POPS. THIS BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING AND HAS IT EXITING THE EASTERN CWA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AND HAVE POPS/WINDS REFLECTING THIS. MOISTURE WILL BE
AMPLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 1.3 INCHES
WITH RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SFC HIGH AND APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH TO WEST...PULLING MOISTURE RIGHT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
FRONT MOVEMENT SHOULD BE PRETTY QUICK...AND INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL
SO DONT REALLY HAVE ANY CONCERNS FOR STORMS WITH THIS. DID ADD A
SLGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER LATE SUN NIGHT WITH SOME MODELS GENERATING
100-200 J/KG OF MUCAPE...BUT NOT REALLY CONFIDENT IN THAT OCCURRING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN UNDERNEATH A BUILDING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH
MODELS APPEAR TO AGREE ON. AS A RESULT...KEPT THINGS DRY FOR THAT
TIME.

HOWEVER...BY MID TO LATE WEEK...PROBLEMS DEVELOP AS THEY
ATTEMPT TO RESOLVE SPLIT FLOW ALOFT...WITH A TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS 00Z WED...AND ANOTHER
TROUGH/POTENTIAL CLOSED LOW MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIE THROUGH THURSDAY. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF DEVELOP A SURFACE/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE DAKOTAS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR
CWA...AND INTO KY/TN. THIS BRINGS US SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY...AND HIGHER POPS INTO THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS
THE PATTERN SOLIDIFIES INTO A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE MIDWEST. THE LOW
EVENTUALLY DRIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...BUT AS TO
STRENGTH/TIMING/EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH THE LOW MOVES....ITS ALL UP IN
THE AIR. KEPT CONSENSUS CHANCE POPS IN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH
CHANCE THUNDER ONLY ON THURSDAY WHEN BOTH MODELS HAVE US IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THE OCCLUDED SFC LOW. CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS
LOWER...GIVEN MODEL DISCREPANCIES AND DIFFICULTIES HANDLING THE
MERGING FEATURES. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...LOOKS TO STAY NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S/UPPER 50S NEAR THE
LAKE/ AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2015

WINDS SHOULD GRDLY DIMINISH THIS EVE WITH LOSS OF HEATING/MIXING.
SOME MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH SECONDARY CDFNT ACROSS SRN WI/MI BUT
A LITTLE DRIER LOW LEVELS OVER NRN IL/IN SHOULD KEEP CIGS VFR IN OUR
AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH COLD AIR ALOFT LINGERING OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
EXPECT SCT-BKN VFR CU ONCE AGAIN BUT WINDS SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY
LIGHTER AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.

MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077>081.

OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-
     015-016-024-025.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...JT


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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

 325 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1120 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015

A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN IOWA AND
NORTHERN MISSOURI. THIS LOW IS MOVING A WARM FRONT AND SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND WILL MOVE A
COLD FRONT AND SOME MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 70S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE MIDDLE 70S ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 40S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO AROUND 50 NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015

MULTIPLE CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO RIPPLE THROUGH
THE REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF MAIN TROUGH AXIS STILL WELL TO
OUR WEST. THIS HAS LED TO A MUDDLED MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF WEAK/ELEVATED CONVECTION SO FAR TODAY. DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION HAS BEEN SLOW GIVEN ABUNDANT RAIN AND STRATUS.
STARTED TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING THE LAST COUPLE
HOURS BUT STILL A LOT OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TO INHIBIT SURFACE
DIABATIC HEATING. LATEST RAP/SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS BETTER SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY JUST NOW STARTING TO NOSE INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN
CWA AS WARM FRONT IS PUSHED NORTHWARD BY STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW BUT RAP SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A
SUBTLE 700-800MB INVERSION OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON. TWO FEATURES TO WATCH FOR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS
EVENING...ONE IS A SUBTLE PREFRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY PUSHING
THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SECOND IS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT
ITSELF...STILL IN CENTRAL MISSOURI. FORCING IS WEAK WITH THE FIRST
WAVE BUT APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TO GENERATE AROUND
1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE OVER ILLINOIS. THERE IS HOWEVER A LOCAL MINIMUM
OF INSTABILITY SEEN ON RAP/SPC MESOANALYSIS OVER WESTERN INDIANA.
RAP SUGGESTS INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA WILL FILL IN OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND IF THE CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS CAN LATCH
ONTO THAT...IT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER IN OUR
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING IS LOW
THOUGH...GIVEN NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF STORMS CURRENTLY ON RADAR
AND RELATIVELY DIFFUSE FORCING. STORMS MAY CLIP OUR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES BUT DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE LEFT BY
THAT POINT. SPC HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH RIGHT UP TO OUR WESTERN
BORDER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLUSTER OF STORMS UPSTREAM DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO SEE IF A LOCAL EXTENSION MAY BE NECESSARY BUT
FOR NOW THREAT APPEARS LOW. POTENTIAL THREAT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
FALL IN THE 22-00Z TIMEFRAME WITH THE MAIN HAZARD BEING DAMAGING
WINDS.

SECOND FEATURE TO WATCH IS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT. THIS FEATURE WILL
NOT ARRIVE UNTIL 03-04Z TONIGHT AND BY THEN WE LOSE ANY SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MODEST...AROUND 7
C/KM...BUT NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. SOME DAMAGING WINDS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN
VERY STRONG LLJ WITH 850MB WINDS OVER 50 KTS BUT WILL BE CONTINGENT
UPON GETTING A SUSTAINED UPDRAFT AND ADEQUATE PRECIP LOADING. THAT
IS QUESTIONABLE AT THIS POINT. THREAT IS CERTAINLY THERE BUT IS
CONDITIONAL ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY IS LEFT BY THE TIME IT REACHES
US. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR UPSTREAM TRENDS CLOSELY THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO UPDATE THE FORECAST AS NECESSARY.

UPDATED GRIDS/ZFP WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE HIGH WINDS ON FRIDAY...

THE SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ACTIVE WEATHER TODAY
WILL HAVE MADE ITS WAY INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS PUTS THE CWA LARGELY IN THE DRY SLOT AND IN THE REGION
OF CAA. ALOFT...A CLOSED 500MB LOW LIFTS FROM UPPER MICHIGAN FRIDAY
MORNING TO JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH A STRONG
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND STATES...A 100 KT 500MB
JET DEVELOPS OVER THE CWA AND REMAINS THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS...IT APPEARS WE WILL BE MIXING
TO NEAR 900MB EARLIER IN THE DAY...THEN UP AS HIGH AS 700-750MB BY
MID AFTERNOON. THINKING GUSTS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON
THEN TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM AND SFC
PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. THINKING GUSTS TO
35-45 MPH ARE LIKELY GIVEN MIXING POTENTIAL TOMORROW...BUT WILL HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING ANY WIND ADVISORIES FOR NOW...AS WE ARE RIGHT BELOW
CRITERIA AND DO NOT WANT TO DETRACT PUBLIC ATTENTION AWAY FROM THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. KEPT THE GOING
HEADLINE FOR THE GALE WARNING UNTIL 15Z...AS CONDITIONS ARE MORE
STABLE OVER THE LAKE.

OTHERWISE...SHORTWAVE/PV ANOMALY ROTATING AROUND THE EXITING LOW
PRESSURE MAY BRING ADDITIONAL LL MOISTURE FORCING FOR RAIN SHOWERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
CWA. MODELS WERE IN GREAT DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE
WAVE...SO FOR NOW KEPT JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS/RAIN SHOWERS FOR NOW.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVERHEAD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL...WITH
HIGHS AGAIN STRUGGLING TO REACH ABOVE THE LOW 60S.

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...500MB FLOW IS SOMEWHAT SPLIT BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
UPPER MI/NORTHERN LOWER MI THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN A DEVELOPING
CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. TAKES SHAPE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUE AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER OUR CWA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE
LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TUE NIGHT INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL
PLAINS BEFORE PHASING INTO THE NORTHERN BRANCH WED.

FOR OUR CWA...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IN
ONTARIO/UPPER MI. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS BRING THE FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THOUGH THEY DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO EXACT
TIMING AND STRENGTH. AS USUAL...THE GFS IS FASTER AND SLIGHTLY
DEEPER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH...AND THUS THE
FRONT IS MORE ORGANIZED. THE ECMWF SHOWS A WEAKER UL TROUGH AND
CORRESPONDING SFC SYSTEM/COLD FRONT. KEPT CONSENSUS POPS FOR
NOW...WHICH DID A DECENT JOB SHOWING THE OVERALL TREND. TUESDAY
LOOKS TO REMAIN LARGELY QUIET...WITH SMALL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.

OF COURSE...THE PHASING SYSTEMS/STREAMS ARE A COMPLETE MESS IN THE
MODEL WORLD...WITH A WHOLE HOST OF SOLUTIONS THAT COULD PLAY OUT
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. JUST KEPT THE CONSENSUS POPS AND OUR
FORECASTED THUNDER AS THERE IS TOO MUCH DISAGREEMENT TO MAKE ANY
REAL IMPROVEMENTS. GOOD NEWS IS...TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S AND
LOW 70S FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015

SEVERAL WAVES OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA IN
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH STILL WELL TO OUR
WEST. ONE CLUSTER IS CURRENTLY EXITING THE KFWA AREA AND ANOTHER
IS SET TO CLIP KSBN WITHIN THE HOUR. BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR
CATEGORY ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG
WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS. SHOULD SEE A BRIEF LULL IN
ACTIVITY DURING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION ARRIVES AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXACT TIMING OF THUNDER. ALL PRECIP SHOULD EXIT
SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT BUT STRONG CAA WILL SUPPORT SOME MVFR
STRATUS THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY MORNING. STRONG WINDS WILL BE
THE OTHER MAIN STORY WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW WITH DEEP MIXING AND A STRONG GRADIENT.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...AGD


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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

 152 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1003 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015

SEVERAL PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. A STATIONARY FRONT OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND
OHIO IS EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT TODAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BECOMING NUMEROUS TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON THURSDAY LIKELY CAUSING ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S NORTH OF THE FRONT IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE LOW 70S
SOUTH OF THE FRONT SOUTH OF US 30. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015

BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL MIXING IS CURRENTLY IN
PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA THANKS TO MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
RIDGING/AVA IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING`S CONVECTION. MCS THAT MOVED
THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA EARLIER TODAY SEEMS TO HAVE LEFT MOST OF OUR
AREA FAIRLY STABLE/CAPPED PER LATEST SPC/RAP MESOANALYSIS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A DECENT INVERSION AROUND 800MB...EVEN IN AREAS THAT
HAVE MANAGED TO MIX OUT. NAM12 TRIES TO WEAKEN THIS CAPPING
INVERSION IN OUR AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT RAP AND GFS KEEP IT
IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING...AT LEAST OUTSIDE OF THE FAR
SOUTH. BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR...SATELLITE...AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...PREFER TO LEAN TOWARD THE RAP IDEA OF
KEEPING OUR CWA MAINLY CAPPED WITH CONVECTION TIED TO BETTER
INSTABILITY JUST TO OUR SOUTH. SYNOPTIC FORCING IS PRETTY MUDDLED
AT THIS POINT BUT THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF MODEST 300K ISENTROPIC
ASCENT JUST TO OUR SOUTH AS WELL. SPC HAS ISSUED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH UP TO OUR SOUTHWEST BORDER AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. CURRENTLY WATCHING A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER EASTERN
ILLINOIS THAT COULD SCRAPE OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. IF THIS
ACTIVITY DOES CLIP OUR AREA...IT COULD VERY WELL PRODUCE SEVERE
WEATHER GIVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER 40 KTS AND MLCAPE VALUES OVER
2000 J/KG DUE TO MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8 C/KM.

BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
LATE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK/EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT NORTHEAST
ALONG WITH NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. ANOTHER
ROUND OF INCREASED MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT
IN A REGION OF MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT EXPANDING
CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT. EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION IS DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT AT THIS STAGE WITH A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS BEING OFFERED BY
LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE. AM A LITTLE UNEASY WITH INHERITED
CATEGORICAL POPS GIVEN DRY SOLUTIONS BEING OFFERED BY SOME HI-RES
GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE 4KM SPC WRF-NMM. LOWERED POPS EARLIER IN THE
PERIOD BUT DID KEEP SOME CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE 09-12Z PERIOD OUT
OF RESPECT FOR THE INCREASING WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION AND MODEL
DEPICTIONS OF WEAK CVA FORCING.

OTHER ASPECT THAT DEMANDS SOME ATTENTION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN/FLOODING WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION THIS WEEK. PW
VALUES DO SURGE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES LATE TONIGHT (AND INTO
TOMORROW) AND HEAVY RAIN WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE WHEN/WHERE
CONVECTION DOES OCCUR. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING AND
BACKBUILDING CONVECTION IS LOW IN OUR AREA WITH RELATIVELY HIGH MBE
VELOCITIES AND THE FACT THAT STORM MOTION BECOMES A LITTLE MORE
ORTHOGONAL TO THE FRONT BY TOMORROW. OUTSIDE OF OUR FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES...MOST OF THE CWA HAS ALSO NOT RECEIVED A LARGE AMOUNT OF
RAIN RECENTLY. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING DOES
EXIST BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY TYPE OF WATCH
HEADLINE AT THIS POINT. AGAIN THE HIGHEST THREAT WILL BE IN OUR FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015

PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.

ALOFT...A DEEP 500MB TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST...TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT OVER
IA/IL AS IT ATTEMPTS TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE FIRMLY ANCHORED OVER
THE EAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS CLOSE THE LOW THU EVE BEFORE
LIFTING IT INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING AND TRAVEL NORTHEASTWARD INTO
SOUTHWESTERN IOWA BY 12Z THU. AS THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW APPROACHES
THE LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN...INTENSIFYING THE WARM AIR/MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVER THE CWA OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY.

AS A RESULT...THE CWA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR FROM LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL...WITH PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 1.4 INCHES
EARLY THU AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS DECENT...WITH LI VALUES RANGING
FROM -5 TO -2/SFC BASED CAPE AS HIGH AS 1500 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON.
0-6KM SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT PALTRY AT FIRST...AROUND 20-30 KNOTS...BUT
PICKS UP TO AROUND 40-50 KNOTS TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. SHOWER/T-STORM ACTIVITY FROM THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH MODELS SUPPORTING SHOWER/T-STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
STATIONARY/WARM FRONT THAT LIFTS NORTHWARD WITH THE BOUNDARY THROUGH
THE MORNING. SEVERE POTENTIAL EARLIER IN THE DAY WILL BE
LIMITED...WITH MORE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE...AND WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS...HEAVY
RAIN IS A THREAT. FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT SEE HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE FORECAST TO INTIATE WITH THE COLD FRONT
OVER THE IL AREA BY THU AFTERNOON...WHERE FRONT TIMING IS MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WX...DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT THESE
STORMS TO CROSS INTO OUR WESTERN CWA WITH THE FRONT BY THURSDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUE GENERALLY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THINKING THE
00-05Z TIME PERIOD IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL WILL BE THE BEST SHOT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...WHEN ALL SVR T-STORM INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER FOR
A BRIEF TIME. PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES GIVEN 0-1
KM SHEAR GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS FROM 00-05Z. THINKING THAT THE
BIGGEST LIMITATION WITH THIS OVERALL SCENARIO IS
INSTABILITY...MODELS TEND TO OVERDO IT IN GENERAL. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY TRUE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MORNING
CONVECTION...AND THE LATE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT/MAJOR FORCING.
TOOK A LOOK AT THE SHERB PARAMETER WHICH HAS SHOWN SOME SKILL IN
EVALUATING HSLC ENVIRONMENTS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...AND VALUES WERE
OVER 1-WHICH SUGGESTS A MORE SIGNIFICANT EVENT IS POSSIBLE.

AFTER 03Z HOWEVER...INSTABILITY REALLY BEGINS TO WANE...AND DRIER
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT QUICKLY INFILTRATES THE AREA. WOULD EXPECT ALL
MEASURABLE PRECIP TO EXIT THE CWA BY 15Z FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD FROM WI. MODELS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTHERN LOWER
MI...BUT THESE WILL BE LIMITED AT BEST. WINDS SHOULD GET GUSTY
FRIDAY THOUGH...WITH A DECENT PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET CROSSING
THE CWA FRIDAY INTO FRI NIGHT.

ALL GOES QUIET AGAIN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO/UPPER MI/NORTHERN WI SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
HUDSON BAY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT AND
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
AROUND THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD...WEAKENING AS IT LIFTS TOWARDS THE
OHIO VALLEY TUE AND WED. THIS WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
FRAME...MAINLY IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015
STORMS HAVE BLOWN UP ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN INDIANA
AS MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER THE STATIONARY FRONT SETTLED
ACROSS THE AREA. FIRST ROUND OF STORMS HAS LIFTED NORTH OF BOTH
TERMINALS...BUT ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
THROUGH THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED AFTER 00Z TOMORROW...BUT WILL WAIT TO
INCLUDE A MENTION UNTIL LATER TAF ISSUANCES WHEN FINER SCALE
DETAILS BECOME MORE APPARENT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...BENTLEY


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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 1133 PM MDT WED APR 8 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 PM MDT WED APR 8 2015

ISSUED A LARGE UPDATE TO AMEND SKY...WEATHER AND POP GRIDS FOR
THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. FOG/STRATUS HAS PUSHED
FARTHER SOUTH THAN MOST GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN. HRRR AND RUC HAVE
LOCKED ONTO STRATUS WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE PERSISTS WITH A POOR
FORECAST. ALSO...INCREASED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS...STORMS
AND DRIZZLE TONIGHT AND SHOWERS/DRIZZLE TOMORROW. THE FOG/DRIZZLE
SETUP IS ESSENTIALLY IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT WED APR 8 2015

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.  THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE
MISSOURI VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM
EASTERN COLORADO INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE IN BEHIND THE TROUGH THURSDAY.

PLAN TO KEEP CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRATION AT 02Z THURSDAY.
DO NOT SEE ANY NEED TO ADD ANY ZONES TO THE RED FLAG WARNING AT THIS
TIME. MODELS SHOW STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD NOT GET INTO WALLACE
OR GREELEY COUNTIES IN KANSAS AND IF THEY DO THE WINDOW WOULD BE
BRIEF TOWARD EVENING WHEN RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD START RECOVERING.

DYNAMICS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO MAINLY YUMA COUNTY AND THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
ZONES WHERE H8-7 LAYER MEAN RH IS THE BEST. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL
BE IN PLACE FOR ZONES JUST TO THE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36 TO THE
NEBRASKA BORDER WHERE MOISTURE IS LESS FAVORABLE.  THERE IS ENOUGH
CAPE (200-400 J/KG) TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SO WILL KEEP
THOSE IN THE FORECAST.

BOUNDARY LAYER RH WILL INCREASE ABOVE 90 PERCENT IN THE EASTERN FA
LATER THIS EVENING AND SPREAD WEST ACROSS MOST OF THE FA OVERNIGHT.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH SO THAT A HIGHLIGHT WILL NOT BE
NEEDED.  THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE FA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING SHOULD ERODE THE STRATUS AND FOG FROM WEST TO EAST.  WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY CLOUDS AND MIXING.
EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.  MAX
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ONLY REACH INTO
THE LOWER 50S TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 107 PM MDT WED APR 8 2015

SUBSIDENCE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES DURING THAT PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMERGING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
BEST MOISTURE WILL BE IN NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY OF UP TO
2000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40KTS WILL RESIDE. THOSE
PARAMETERS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. FRONT DROPS DOWN
BEHIND THAT SYSTEM SO THAT BY SUNDAY BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA. SO OTHER THAN A FEW LINGERING POPS IN
THE MORNING FOR THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES THINK IT WILL BE DRY
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.

CUT OFF SYSTEM IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL EMERGE ONTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY IMPACT THE AREA WITH A
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS IT
EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY DURING THAT TIME
NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE BUT PLENTY OF MUCAPE AVAILABLE SO WOULD EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL DOWN ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO CUT OFF OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MID WEEK AND SLOWLY
MOVE ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IT MAY TAKE ITS TIME GETTING HERE
AND IF THE TRACK IS TOO FAR NORTH WE MAY GET DRY SLOTTED ANYWAY.
NONETHELESS WILL CARRY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY IN
NORTHEAST COLORADO AS IT SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM MDT WED APR 8 2015

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THIS RUN AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES STRUGGLE
WITH FOG/DRIZZLE/STRATUS PLACEMENT. MOST ALL GUIDANCE KEEPS
STRATUS TOO FAR NORTH BUT INITIAL FRONT HAS RETROGRADED FARTHER
SOUTH THAN ANTICIPATED ONCE AGAIN. WENT WITH A PESSIMISTIC
FORECAST SIMILAR TO ONGOING OBSERVATIONS AND WHAT OCCURRED PAST
TWO NIGHTS. VARIABLE CIGS/VIS LIKELY LATER THIS MORNING AS A
STRONGER COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH...INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC
MIXING. OVERALL...EXPECTING AN IMPROVING TREND FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS BACK NORTHEAST BY MORNING AND
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN SPEED BEHIND THE STRONGER COLD FRONT.
ANTICIPATE GUSTY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON
TODAY. WINDS RELAX UNDER VFR CIGS/VIS BEFORE SUNSET.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...RRH



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 642 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 641 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015

JUST UPDATED THE GRIDS...ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT...AND
HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCT TO ALL REFLECT THE CANCELLATION OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 40. WITH ONLY A FEW MEAGER THUNDERSTORMS
HAVING MOVED ACROSS THE AREA SO FAR THIS EVENING...AND WITH NO NEW
STORMS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA ANY TIME SOON...THE WATCH WAS
CANCELLED. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS STILL IN EFFECT. THE GRIDS
WERE ALSO FRESHENED UP A BIT USING THE LATEST OBS DATA ACROSS THE
BOARD. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CURRENT CONDITIONS TO DETERMINE
WHEN TO ISSUE THE NEXT FORECAST UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM WITH EASTERN
KENTUCKY REMAINING UNDER BROAD SW FLOW TODAY BEFORE AN UL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO OUR
NORTH...HELPING TO FOCUS SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE CONVECTION SO
FAR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH BEST
CHANCES ALONG THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE A SPC SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. AND AS THE UL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL HEIGHT FALLS AND UL
ENERGY...THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE.

HIGH RES MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND NAM12 BOTH INDICATE A
LULL IN CONVECTION TONIGHT AFTER THE DIURNAL CONVECTION WANES
AND BEFORE THE COLD FRONT REACHES OUR AREA. AS SUCH...HAVE
INDICATED A DECREASE IN SHOWERS/CONVECTION DURING THAT TIME IN
THE POP/SKY/WX GRIDS. BY THE TIME THE COLD FRONT REACHES KY AROUND
06Z...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NUMEROUS AND WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE STATE. PER LATEST MODEL OUTPUT AND
SOUNDINGS...A CONVECTIVE LINE COULD DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A THREAT OF HIGH WINDS
AND HEAVY RAIN. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE CONVECTION FORMS WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATER TONIGHT...BUT IT IS LIKELY THAT THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. THERE WONT BE THE
ADDED BENEFIT OF DAYTIME HEATING BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MID TO
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION TO SUSTAIN ITSELF. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD THEN EXIT EASTERN KY BY 18Z...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY
COOLER...DRIER AIR AND N TO NW FLOW.

THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY CUT OFF ANY
REMAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND DRY THE AIR...DECREASING
HUMIDITY LEVELS SUBSTANTIALLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES
TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL VALUES...IN THE MID 60S...ON SATURDAY
AS A HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVERHEAD. THIS IS A BIG CHANGE FROM
TODAY/S TEMPERATURES WHICH HAVE SURPASSED THE 80 DEGREE MARK
FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015

A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WHICH SHOULD LAST INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. BY THEN THE HIGH WILL BE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST...AND
MODELS SHOW GULF MOISTURE TRYING TO MAKE A RETURN TO THE NORTH AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NW. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THIS
FRONT WILL BRING A QUICK CHANCE AT SOME SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE 12Z RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW
SUGGEST MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO OUR NORTH...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH AND KEEPS MOISTURE AT BAY.
HOWEVER...WITH THIS BEING A RECENT CHANGE...HAVE ONLY TRENDED THE
POP LOWER INSTEAD OF REMOVING PRECIP FROM THE FORECAST. 12Z RUNS
SHOW A RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY AND HAVE CONTINUED CHANCE POPS
FOR SHOWERS AT THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 641 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 9 OR 10Z
TONIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL AND OBS DATA...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE AFFECTING THE TAF SITES UNTIL AROUND
DAWN ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...AND UNTIL IT ARRIVES...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM UNDER THE CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS. ONCE THE STORMS DO ARRIVE...THE TAF SITES CAN EXPECTED
TORRENTIAL RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...STRONG WINDS...AND MVFR TO
POSSIBLY LIFR CONDITIONS. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE
STEADILY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AND
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...HAL



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 502 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM WITH EASTERN
KENTUCKY REMAINING UNDER BROAD SW FLOW TODAY BEFORE AN UL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO OUR
NORTH...HELPING TO FOCUS SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE CONVECTION SO
FAR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH BEST
CHANCES ALONG THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE A SPC SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. AND AS THE UL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL HEIGHT FALLS AND UL
ENERGY...THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE.

HIGH RES MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND NAM12 BOTH INDICATE A
LULL IN CONVECTION TONIGHT AFTER THE DIURNAL CONVECTION WANES
AND BEFORE THE COLD FRONT REACHES OUR AREA. AS SUCH...HAVE
INDICATED A DECREASE IN SHOWERS/CONVECTION DURING THAT TIME IN
THE POP/SKY/WX GRIDS. BY THE TIME THE COLD FRONT REACHES KY AROUND
06Z...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NUMEROUS AND WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE STATE. PER LATEST MODEL OUTPUT AND
SOUNDINGS...A CONVECTIVE LINE COULD DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A THREAT OF HIGH WINDS
AND HEAVY RAIN. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE CONVECTION FORMS WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATER TONIGHT...BUT IT IS LIKELY THAT THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. THERE WONT BE THE
ADDED BENEFIT OF DAYTIME HEATING BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MID TO
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION TO SUSTAIN ITSELF. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD THEN EXIT EASTERN KY BY 18Z...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY
COOLER...DRIER AIR AND N TO NW FLOW.

THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY CUT OFF ANY
REMAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND DRY THE AIR...DECREASING
HUMIDITY LEVELS SUBSTANTIALLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES
TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL VALUES...IN THE MID 60S...ON SATURDAY
AS A HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVERHEAD. THIS IS A BIG CHANGE FROM
TODAY/S TEMPERATURES WHICH HAVE SURPASSED THE 80 DEGREE MARK
FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015

A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WHICH SHOULD LAST INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. BY THEN THE HIGH WILL BE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST...AND
MODELS SHOW GULF MOISTURE TRYING TO MAKE A RETURN TO THE NORTH AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NW. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THIS
FRONT WILL BRING A QUICK CHANCE AT SOME SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE 12Z RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW
SUGGEST MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO OUR NORTH...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH AND KEEPS MOISTURE AT BAY.
HOWEVER...WITH THIS BEING A RECENT CHANGE...HAVE ONLY TRENDED THE
POP LOWER INSTEAD OF REMOVING PRECIP FROM THE FORECAST. 12Z RUNS
SHOW A RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY AND HAVE CONTINUED CHANCE POPS
FOR SHOWERS AT THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015

THE AVIATION DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...HAL




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 351 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM WITH EASTERN
KENTUCKY REMAINING UNDER BROAD SW FLOW TODAY BEFORE AN UL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO OUR
NORTH...HELPING TO FOCUS SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE CONVECTION SO
FAR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH BEST
CHANCES ALONG THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE A SPC SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. AND AS THE UL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL HEIGHT FALLS AND UL
ENERGY...THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE.

HIGH RES MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND NAM12 BOTH INDICATE A
LULL IN CONVECTION TONIGHT AFTER THE DIURNAL CONVECTION WANES
AND BEFORE THE COLD FRONT REACHES OUR AREA. AS SUCH...HAVE
INDICATED A DECREASE IN SHOWERS/CONVECTION DURING THAT TIME IN
THE POP/SKY/WX GRIDS. BY THE TIME THE COLD FRONT REACHES KY AROUND
06Z...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NUMEROUS AND WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE STATE. PER LATEST MODEL OUTPUT AND
SOUNDINGS...A CONVECTIVE LINE COULD DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A THREAT OF HIGH WINDS
AND HEAVY RAIN. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE CONVECTION FORMS WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATER TONIGHT...BUT IT IS LIKELY THAT THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. THERE WONT BE THE
ADDED BENEFIT OF DAYTIME HEATING BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MID TO
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION TO SUSTAIN ITSELF. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD THEN EXIT EASTERN KY BY 18Z...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY
COOLER...DRIER AIR AND N TO NW FLOW.

THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY CUT OFF ANY
REMAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND DRY THE AIR...DECREASING
HUMIDITY LEVELS SUBSTANTIALLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES
TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL VALUES...IN THE MID 60S...ON SATURDAY
AS A HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVERHEAD. THIS IS A BIG CHANGE FROM
TODAY/S TEMPERATURES WHICH HAVE SURPASSED THE 80 DEGREE MARK
FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015

THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015

THE AVIATION DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.


&&



&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...HAL



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 249 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO ALIGN T AND TD GRIDS WITH MOST RECENT OBS. DID END
UP BUMPING THE HIGH TEMP FOR THE DAY UP A DEGREE GIVEN THE FACT
THAT WE HAVE ALREADY REACHED 80 DEGREES BY NOON. CLOUD COVER AND
STORM COVERAGE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON COULD HELP KEEP TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015

INCREASED POPS A BIT ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWS SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP ACROSS THE NORTH. THE NAM12 IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH A LARGER AREA OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH...STILL
HAVE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE STORMS WILL SET UP AND MOVE SO
HAVE LEFT MOSTLY CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS. ALSO UPDATED T AND TD
GRIDS TO ALIGN WITH MOST RECENT OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO WEB
SERVERS AND NDFD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015

EASTERN KY CURRENTLY FINDS ITSELF IN A LULL...WITH EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVING EXITED TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. THE
NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS...CURRENTLY OVER FAR WESTERN KY...WILL BE IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...EXPECT SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO POP UP ACROSS EASTERN KY DUE
TO MOST WARM UNSTABLE AIR BEING PULLED IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
HOWEVER...EXPECT MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST AND
NORTH CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE UNSTABLE NATURE OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...A NEARBY SOURCE OF LIFT IN THE BOUNDARY...AND SO
MUCH MOISTURE AT PLAY...IT IS HIGHLY POSSIBLE THAT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP COULD PUT DOWN SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...AS WELL AS PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. FOR ONCE...WE WILL HAVE A SHOT OF DECENT CAPE
VALUES IN ADDITION TO SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 40 AND HIGHER BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WHERE AS PREVIOUS EVENTS OF LATE HAVE BEEN LACKING ONE
OR THE OTHER.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND REACH WESTERN KY BY 06Z
FRIDAY...AT WHICH POINT A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL HAVE ENCOMPASSED MUCH OF KENTUCKY. EXPECT AN AREA OF MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE TO MOVE INTO THE JKL CWA BY AROUND 6Z AND
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
APPROACH. GIVEN THE LATEST NAM12 FORECAST SOUNDINGS...IT LOOKS
LIKE A LINE OF STORMS COULD DEVELOP...WITH HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL
RAINS...AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MIXING DOWN AS IT RACES
EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LATEST GFS40 FORECAST HAS THE COLD
FRONT ENTERING INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA BY 12Z
FRIDAY...AND EXITING TO THE EAST OF THE STATE AROUND 18Z.

JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE..MUCH DRIER W TO NW FLOW WILL
TAKE HOLD...BRINGING A QUICK END TO ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL ALSO WORK TO QUICKLY COOL OFF
TEMPERATURES QUITE QUICKLY...WITH MUCH LESS HUMIDITY EXPECTED AS
WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND. TODAY/S TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TO RISE
WELL INTO THE 80S BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THANKS TO THE PREFRONTAL
WARM AIR ADVECTION. HOWEVER FOR TOMORROW...ONGOING CLOUDS AND
RAIN...AS WELL AS THE PULL OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION DURING
NORMAL PEAK HEATING TIMES...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN
THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

MUCH OF THE CWA HAS BEEN VERY WORKED OVER WITH RECENT HEAVY RAINS.
IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO CREATE AN EXCESS OF RUNOFF WITH ANY HEAVY
RAIN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WE RECEIVE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MORE SO...THE FORECASTED PWATS AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
ARE HIGH...ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY. AS SUCH...WENT AHEAD
AND EXPANDED THE WATCH ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...AS WELL AS EXTENDED
IT UNTIL NOON FRIDAY WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE EXITED THE REGION AHEAD OF THE PASSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 534 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A FLATTER SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN TO CONTROL ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BEFORE BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD. STUCK CLOSE TO A BLENDED SOLUTION...AS SMALLER SCALE
DETAILS BECOME TOO DIFFICULT TO FORECAST WITH ANY CONFIDENCE.

A COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS. HIGHS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH LOWS SUNDAY MORNING POSSIBLY DOWN INTO
THE 30S FOR THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS.

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS
TO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO
SHEAR OUT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...RENEWING THE POP CHANCES. A
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALSO BE MOVING NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...TRANSITIONING TO AN OPEN WAVE. THIS WILL
USHER IN DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY...ALONG WITH
PROVIDING SOME INTERACTION WITH THE LEFTOVER SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK. AGAIN...STUCK CLOSE TO A BLENDED
SOLUTION...HOWEVER DID ALLOW FOR MORE OF A DIURNAL INFLUENCE ON
THE POPS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 248 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING AND QUICKLY
MOVING NE OVER THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. A FEW OF
THEM MAY CONTAIN IFR CONDITIONS...STRONG WINDS...AND HAIL THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE GREATER THREAT MAY BE A BIT FURTHER
NORTH. OUTSIDE OF PRECIP...VFR IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

WILL LOOK FOR MAINLY VFR AND A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIP THIS
EVENING...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT AND
BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL LOCATIONS. THE BULK OF
THE OVERNIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN
ABOUT 08Z AND 12Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO MFR AND
POSSIBLY IFR AT TIMES. PRECIP WILL THEN MOVE OUT OF THE REGION
FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN ABOUT 13Z AND 17Z...BUT CEILINGS MOSTLY IN
THE MVFR RANGE WILL LIKELY LINGER.

WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT FROM THE SW WILL OCCUR AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTINESS POSSIBLY PERSISTING INTO TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST ON FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...HAL




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 1255 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO ALIGN T AND TD GRIDS WITH MOST RECENT OBS. DID END
UP BUMPING THE HIGH TEMP FOR THE DAY UP A DEGREE GIVEN THE FACT
THAT WE HAVE ALREADY REACHED 80 DEGREES BY NOON. CLOUD COVER AND
STORM COVERAGE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON COULD HELP KEEP TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015

INCREASED POPS A BIT ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWS SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP ACROSS THE NORTH. THE NAM12 IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH A LARGER AREA OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH...STILL
HAVE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE STORMS WILL SET UP AND MOVE SO
HAVE LEFT MOSTLY CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS. ALSO UPDATED T AND TD
GRIDS TO ALIGN WITH MOST RECENT OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO WEB
SERVERS AND NDFD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015

EASTERN KY CURRENTLY FINDS ITSELF IN A LULL...WITH EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVING EXITED TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. THE
NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS...CURRENTLY OVER FAR WESTERN KY...WILL BE IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...EXPECT SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO POP UP ACROSS EASTERN KY DUE
TO MOST WARM UNSTABLE AIR BEING PULLED IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
HOWEVER...EXPECT MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST AND
NORTH CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE UNSTABLE NATURE OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...A NEARBY SOURCE OF LIFT IN THE BOUNDARY...AND SO
MUCH MOISTURE AT PLAY...IT IS HIGHLY POSSIBLE THAT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP COULD PUT DOWN SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...AS WELL AS PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. FOR ONCE...WE WILL HAVE A SHOT OF DECENT CAPE
VALUES IN ADDITION TO SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 40 AND HIGHER BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WHERE AS PREVIOUS EVENTS OF LATE HAVE BEEN LACKING ONE
OR THE OTHER.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND REACH WESTERN KY BY 06Z
FRIDAY...AT WHICH POINT A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL HAVE ENCOMPASSED MUCH OF KENTUCKY. EXPECT AN AREA OF MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE TO MOVE INTO THE JKL CWA BY AROUND 6Z AND
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
APPROACH. GIVEN THE LATEST NAM12 FORECAST SOUNDINGS...IT LOOKS
LIKE A LINE OF STORMS COULD DEVELOP...WITH HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL
RAINS...AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MIXING DOWN AS IT RACES
EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LATEST GFS40 FORECAST HAS THE COLD
FRONT ENTERING INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA BY 12Z
FRIDAY...AND EXITING TO THE EAST OF THE STATE AROUND 18Z.

JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE..MUCH DRIER W TO NW FLOW WILL
TAKE HOLD...BRINGING A QUICK END TO ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL ALSO WORK TO QUICKLY COOL OFF
TEMPERATURES QUITE QUICKLY...WITH MUCH LESS HUMIDITY EXPECTED AS
WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND. TODAY/S TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TO RISE
WELL INTO THE 80S BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THANKS TO THE PREFRONTAL
WARM AIR ADVECTION. HOWEVER FOR TOMORROW...ONGOING CLOUDS AND
RAIN...AS WELL AS THE PULL OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION DURING
NORMAL PEAK HEATING TIMES...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN
THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

MUCH OF THE CWA HAS BEEN VERY WORKED OVER WITH RECENT HEAVY RAINS.
IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO CREATE AN EXCESS OF RUNOFF WITH ANY HEAVY
RAIN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WE RECEIVE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MORE SO...THE FORECASTED PWATS AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
ARE HIGH...ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY. AS SUCH...WENT AHEAD
AND EXPANDED THE WATCH ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...AS WELL AS EXTENDED
IT UNTIL NOON FRIDAY WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE EXITED THE REGION AHEAD OF THE PASSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 534 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A FLATTER SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN TO CONTROL ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BEFORE BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD. STUCK CLOSE TO A BLENDED SOLUTION...AS SMALLER SCALE
DETAILS BECOME TOO DIFFICULT TO FORECAST WITH ANY CONFIDENCE.

A COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS. HIGHS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH LOWS SUNDAY MORNING POSSIBLY DOWN INTO
THE 30S FOR THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS.

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS
TO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO
SHEAR OUT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...RENEWING THE POP CHANCES. A
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALSO BE MOVING NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...TRANSITIONING TO AN OPEN WAVE. THIS WILL
USHER IN DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY...ALONG WITH
PROVIDING SOME INTERACTION WITH THE LEFTOVER SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK. AGAIN...STUCK CLOSE TO A BLENDED
SOLUTION...HOWEVER DID ALLOW FOR MORE OF A DIURNAL INFLUENCE ON
THE POPS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 656 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015

STRONG SRLY FLOW AND MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY WHERE
THESE STORMS WILL SET UP IN RELATION TO THE TAF SITE...KEPT WITH
VCTS FROM PREVIOUS TAF. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD...AFFECTING
KSME...KLOZ...AND POSSIBLY KSME JUST BEFORE 6Z...THEN KJKL AND
KSJS AROUND 6Z OR AFTER. ONCE AGAIN...UNTIL STORMS DEVELOP...EXACT
IMPACTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...SO WENT WITH A GENERAL MVFR AT THIS
TIME. WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINS
ARE A POSSIBILITY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...JMW



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 945 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015

INCREASED POPS A BIT ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWS SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP ACROSS THE NORTH. THE NAM12 IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH A LARGER AREA OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH...STILL
HAVE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE STORMS WILL SET UP AND MOVE SO
HAVE LEFT MOSTLY CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS. ALSO UPDATED T AND TD
GRIDS TO ALIGN WITH MOST RECENT OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO WEB
SERVERS AND NDFD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015

EASTERN KY CURRENTLY FINDS ITSELF IN A LULL...WITH EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVING EXITED TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. THE
NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS...CURRENTLY OVER FAR WESTERN KY...WILL BE IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...EXPECT SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO POP UP ACROSS EASTERN KY DUE
TO MOST WARM UNSTABLE AIR BEING PULLED IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
HOWEVER...EXPECT MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST AND
NORTH CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE UNSTABLE NATURE OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...A NEARBY SOURCE OF LIFT IN THE BOUNDARY...AND SO
MUCH MOISTURE AT PLAY...IT IS HIGHLY POSSIBLE THAT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP COULD PUT DOWN SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...AS WELL AS PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. FOR ONCE...WE WILL HAVE A SHOT OF DECENT CAPE
VALUES IN ADDITION TO SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 40 AND HIGHER BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WHERE AS PREVIOUS EVENTS OF LATE HAVE BEEN LACKING ONE
OR THE OTHER.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND REACH WESTERN KY BY 06Z
FRIDAY...AT WHICH POINT A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL HAVE ENCOMPASSED MUCH OF KENTUCKY. EXPECT AN AREA OF MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE TO MOVE INTO THE JKL CWA BY AROUND 6Z AND
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
APPROACH. GIVEN THE LATEST NAM12 FORECAST SOUNDINGS...IT LOOKS
LIKE A LINE OF STORMS COULD DEVELOP...WITH HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL
RAINS...AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MIXING DOWN AS IT RACES
EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LATEST GFS40 FORECAST HAS THE COLD
FRONT ENTERING INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA BY 12Z
FRIDAY...AND EXITING TO THE EAST OF THE STATE AROUND 18Z.

JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE..MUCH DRIER W TO NW FLOW WILL
TAKE HOLD...BRINGING A QUICK END TO ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL ALSO WORK TO QUICKLY COOL OFF
TEMPERATURES QUITE QUICKLY...WITH MUCH LESS HUMIDITY EXPECTED AS
WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND. TODAY/S TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TO RISE
WELL INTO THE 80S BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THANKS TO THE PREFRONTAL
WARM AIR ADVECTION. HOWEVER FOR TOMORROW...ONGOING CLOUDS AND
RAIN...AS WELL AS THE PULL OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION DURING
NORMAL PEAK HEATING TIMES...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN
THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

MUCH OF THE CWA HAS BEEN VERY WORKED OVER WITH RECENT HEAVY RAINS.
IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO CREATE AN EXCESS OF RUNOFF WITH ANY HEAVY
RAIN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WE RECEIVE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MORE SO...THE FORECASTED PWATS AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
ARE HIGH...ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY. AS SUCH...WENT AHEAD
AND EXPANDED THE WATCH ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...AS WELL AS EXTENDED
IT UNTIL NOON FRIDAY WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE EXITED THE REGION AHEAD OF THE PASSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 534 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A FLATTER SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN TO CONTROL ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BEFORE BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD. STUCK CLOSE TO A BLENDED SOLUTION...AS SMALLER SCALE
DETAILS BECOME TOO DIFFICULT TO FORECAST WITH ANY CONFIDENCE.

A COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS. HIGHS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH LOWS SUNDAY MORNING POSSIBLY DOWN INTO
THE 30S FOR THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS.

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS
TO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO
SHEAR OUT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...RENEWING THE POP CHANCES. A
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALSO BE MOVING NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...TRANSITIONING TO AN OPEN WAVE. THIS WILL
USHER IN DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY...ALONG WITH
PROVIDING SOME INTERACTION WITH THE LEFTOVER SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK. AGAIN...STUCK CLOSE TO A BLENDED
SOLUTION...HOWEVER DID ALLOW FOR MORE OF A DIURNAL INFLUENCE ON
THE POPS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 656 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015

STRONG SRLY FLOW AND MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY WHERE
THESE STORMS WILL SET UP IN RELATION TO THE TAF SITE...KEPT WITH
VCTS FROM PREVIOUS TAF. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD...AFFECTING
KSME...KLOZ...AND POSSIBLY KSME JUST BEFORE 6Z...THEN KJKL AND
KSJS AROUND 6Z OR AFTER. ONCE AGAIN...UNTIL STORMS DEVELOP...EXACT
IMPACTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...SO WENT WITH A GENERAL MVFR AT THIS
TIME. WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINS
ARE A POSSIBILITY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...JMW




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 156 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1208 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015

A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE CLEARED OUT WITH CLOUD COVER
AND WHERE THIS HAS OCCURRED...DENSE FOG IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP.
FOR NOW HAVE PUT THE MENTION OF FOG INTO THE ZONES AND THE HWO. A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH...WHERE INSTABILITY IS
RELATIVELY UNTOUCHED. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING
HOURS. IN THE NORTH...DECIDED TO KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH GOING AS A
FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THE AREA AND ACTIVITY OUT WEST MAY
MAKE IT INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS AND
SENT THEM TO THE NDFD SERVERS AND HAVE ISSUED SOME FRESH ZONES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS HAS A BEEN AN AREA THAT HAS SEEN SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL EARLY IN THE DAY AND WITH DEW POINTS STILL IN THE MID 60S
AND CONVECTION MOVING IN...HAVE CONTINUED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AND HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WARNING OVER THE NORTH. WITH
THIS...HAVE SENT OUT AN UPDATE TO THE ZONES TO INCREASE THE POPS
OVER THE NORTH AND BETTER REFLECT THE CURRENT RAINFALL MOVING
THROUGH. THOUGH...WITH THIS ACTIVITY...WILL LIKELY SEE THIS COME
TO AN END IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND HAVE DROPPED OFF POPS AFTER
05Z TONIGHT. HI RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
CURRENT MCS WILL BE THE FINAL COMPLEX FOR THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 455 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL SHOW SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER KENTUCKY
WITH POCKETS OF ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION EVERY FEW HOURS.
SOME HEIGHT FALLS WILL GET INTO THE MIX ON THURSDAY AS A LARGER
TROUGH SWEETS EAST AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE KEY TO THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BE THE SMALLER FEATURES THAT THE HIGHER RES
MODELS...SUCH AS THE HRRR/NAM12...HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
CATCHING. THAT BEING SAID...THE CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW GIVEN
THE SMALL SCALE FEATURES AT PLAY.

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER IT HAS BEEN QUITE AN ACTIVE DAY ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY SO FAR... WITH THE LAST PORTION OF THE MORNING
CONVECTION NOW PUSHING OUT OF FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY. BUT THE BIG
QUESTION IS...IS HOW THE CONVECTION NOW FORMING IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY
WILL SOLIDIFY INTO A COMPLEX AND MOVE EWD... OR IF ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION WILL FORM IN EASTERN KENTUCKY AND TRAIN. THE LATEST
HRRR INDICATES MULTIPLE AREAS OF CONVECTION FORMING AND MOVING
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA INTO TOMORROW MORNING....WHEREAS THE
NAM12 DOESNT SHOW MUCH OF ANYTHING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. BUT GIVEN
THE CURRENT INSTABILITY PARAMETERS...CURRENT CONVECTION OUT IN
CENTRAL KY... AND THE FACT THAT THE HRRR DID A GOOD JOB AT
CAPTURING THE DAYTIME CONVECTION... HAVE HEDGED TOWARDS THE HRRR
SOLUTION AND INCREASED TO LIKELY POPS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH 03Z.
HAVE ALSO ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 15Z THURSDAY FOR THE
THREAT OF TRAINING CONVECTION OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.

THE SET UP FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
MORNING LOOKS SIMILAR TO TODAY...IF NOT BETTER...AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SO HAVE CONTINUED THE FAIRLY HIGH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 521 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL BE PASSING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION AS THE
PERIOD STARTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...BUT SHOULD COME TO AN ABRUPT END AFTER FROPA DURING
THE DAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
THEN PROVIDE COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.

AS THE HIGH SLIPS TO THE EAST...WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A
WEAK WARM FRONT TRYING TO DEVELOP WILL PRESENT A LOW PROBABILITY
OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD
SHOW UP ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES IN
FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH THE FLOW OFF THE GULF. ONCE THIS IMPULSE
LIFTS OUT...WE WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR. WEAKER DISTURBANCES
ALOFT MAY AID SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT TIMES TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BUT THE TIMING WILL BE NONSPECIFIC AT THIS
LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015

AFTER A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH PORTIONS
OF EASTERN KY THIS EVENING...CLEARING IS FINALLY STARTING TO TAKE
PLACE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN TONIGHT ABOUT FOG DEVELOPMENT.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING NO FOG POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND SUCH A MOIST ENVIRONMENT...THE POTENTIAL IS DEFINITELY
THERE...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. IT/S JUST A MATTER OF IF THIS
FOG WILL SET IN AT THE TAF SITES...AND IF IT DOES...FOR HOW LONG
AND TO WHAT RESTRICTION. KEPT WITH IFR VIS AFTER 9Z...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN CASE CHANGES NEED TO BE
MADE. BY TOMORROW...OUR NEXT ROUND OF INSTABILITY WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY
WHERE THESE STORMS WILL SET UP IN RELATION TO THE TAF SITE...KEPT
WITH VCTS FROM PREVIOUS TAF. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING MORE
WIDESRPEAD CHANCES VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD...AFFECTING
KSME...KLOZ...AND POSSIBLY KSME JUST BEFORE 6Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044-
050>052-104.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...JVM/GREIF
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JMW



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOUISVILLE KY

 1247 AM EDT Thu Apr 9 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Mesoscale Forecast Update...
Issued at 830 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2015

Strong to marginally severe convection across southern Indiana and
much of central Kentucky is now pushing into the Bluegrass region.
One renegade supercell near Owensboro weakened rapidly as it pushed
eastward within the last hour, suggesting that our environment has
been worked over, and observed temperatures are now in the upper 60s
across most of the area. Warmer temps in south central Kentucky, but
the environment is capped and the dynamical forcing aloft is also
lacking.

Will cut back on POPs as these storms exit the Bluegrass over the
next hour or so, and work on canceling the Tornado Watch. The Flash
Flood Watch is in effect and will be left in place, even though the
flood threat won`t ramp up again until we get the next round of
convection in sometime Thursday.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2015

...More Strong Storms Possible This Evening and Tomorrow...

Multiple boundaries have set up across the region this afternoon.
SPC mesoanalysis shows all the CIN from earlier in the day has
eroded and we have become moderately unstable with 2500-3500 J/kg CAPE.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for southern Indiana for
this afternoon and early evening. However, given the multiple
boundaries and possibility for strong storms elsewhere around the
forecast area, extensions to the Watch are not out of the question
this afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main
threats this afternoon, though a tornado or two cannot be ruled out
completely. The other concern for tonight will be the possibility of
training thunderstorms, particularly across southern IN and north
central KY. The latest runs of the HRRR have been suggesting this.
Given that flash flood values are under an inch an hour and storms
may train in this area, have gone ahead and issued a Flash Flood
Watch starting late this afternoon and continuing through tomorrow
night.

There should be a relative lull in the storms for much of the
overnight period as any storms that develop this afternoon will move
out late this evening. Think another complex associated with a weak
upper level wave will move in early tomorrow morning and continue
through the morning hours. Some small hail and gusty winds will be
possible with these storms.

There should be at least a short break in storm coverage tomorrow
afternoon ahead of the more significant chance for severe weather
along and ahead of the cold front tomorrow night. Moisture will pool
ahead of the front with strong southerly winds through the afternoon
tomorrow. Forcing will come from the upper level trough moving in
and an upper level jet. Shear will increase and hodographs exhibit
favorable clockwise curving tomorrow night. A broken line of showers
and thunderstorms looks to develop to our west congeal into a line
as it moves into the forecast area tomorrow evening. Damaging winds
will be the the main threat with the squall line, with a few
embedded tornadoes possible. If any cells do develop ahead of the
main line hail could be a threat as well.

Due to the repeated areas of convection moving across the region,
have kept the Flash Flood Watch in place through tomorrow night.
Repeated rains will only exacerbate or renew flooding problems.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 241 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2015

Not much has changed in the thinking for the long term period. Due
to the ongoing storms an updated discussion will not be issued this
afternoon. The previous discussion is below.

Previous discussion
-------------------

Cold front should pass through the area during the pre-dawn hours
Friday in our west then sweep across the rest of central Kentucky
during the early morning hours. Westerly flow will bring in a drier
and quieter pattern Friday night.

Plan on a pleasant, sunny and seasonable Saturday with high pressure
over the lower Ohio Valley. Sunday will start off in similar fashion
but as the high quickly moves to the east, southerly return flow
will begin to push another slug of warm, moist air to the region.
Shower chances return Sunday night through Monday as a trough digs
across the central Plains. High-end chance to likely POPs look
reasonable early next week with near normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1245 AM EDT Thu Apr 9 2015

Plan on VFR conditions the remainder of the overnight as air mass
across central Kentucky has been worked over by earlier convection
and is largely stable. A complex of showers/storms currently across
Illinois may try to dip southeastward toward SDF/LEX by 11-13z.
Confidence isn`t high as meso-models are showing this could end up
staying to the north. Will keep mention in the TAFs for now.

Increasing pressure gradient ahead of the next system will result in
strong southerly winds later today at all sites. Plan on sustained
winds 15-20 kts with gusts 25 to locally 30 kts. Timing the new few
waves of convection is tricky but it looks like a pre-frontal system
could spark a round of thunderstorms late this afternoon through
early evening (22-03z) then a brief break before the main cold front
passes 06-09z Friday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR KYZ023>025-028>043-
     045>049-053>057-066-067.

IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR INZ076>079-083-084-
     089>092.

&&

$$

Mesoscale.........RAS
Short Term........EER
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........ZT





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAKE CHARLES LA

 1015 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2015

.UPDATE...
THINGS HAVE SETTLED DOWN THIS EVENING AFTER A RATHER EVENTFUL DAY
AT LEAST AROUND SOUTH LAKE CHARLES. A FUNNEL CLOUD DEVELOPED EARLY
THIS AFTN NEAR THE LC REGIONAL AIRPORT AND LASTED SEVERAL MINUTES
BEFORE DISSIPATING...FOLLOWED ABOUT AN HOUR LATER BY TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL THAT PRODUCED FLOODING ACRS SOUTH LAKE CHARLES. THESE
STORMS PRODUCED OVER 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN ONE HOUR...AND JUST OVER
4 INCHES TOTAL WHICH SET A NEW RECORD FOR RAINFALL.

AS FOR TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT HAS SETTLED NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
SW LA COAST...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THERE THROUGH SAT MORNING
BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH DURING THE AFTN. WITH DIURNAL
INSTABILITY DIMINISHING AND THE FIRST OF SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
EXITING TO THE EAST...MUCH OF THE CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED WITH
JUST A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. ADJUSTED EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS
AND HRRR GUIDANCE. ALSO TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPS...DEWPOINTS AND
WINDS...BUT NOTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS
NORTH AND THE NEXT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSES THE REGION.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2015/

AVIATION...LIGHT RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
ALONG WITH THE RAIN, MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH
TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
TOWARD LATE MORNING SAT, HOWEVER RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REDEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. VRB WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
BECOME NE TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES INTO THE GULF.

05

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OBSERVATIONAL DATA SUGGEST THE CDFNT HAS NEARLY CLEARED THE INLAND
FCST AREA...THOUGH A LARGE SWATH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF SE TX/SW LA. THE
BACK EDGE OF THIS PCPN SHIELD LOOKS TO BE GETTING CLOSE TO THE
HOUSTON AREA. LATEST SHORT TERM PROGS SUGGEST THE RAINFALL
ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ALBEIT WITH BOTH
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DECLINING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
INSTABILITY AND THE EASTWARD DEPARTURE OF A SHORTWAVE TROF.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
EVENING...WITH A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN RAINFALL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONT PROGGED TO RETREAT BACK TO
THE NORTH AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF EJECTS OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN TX. PWATS ARE AGAIN FCST TO REACH NEAR 1.7
INCHES...WHICH WILL YIELD CONVECTION CAPABLE OF HIGH RAINFALL
RATES.

ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND ON INTO MONDAY AMID
THIS VERY MOIST AIRMASS...AS ADDITIONAL SPOKES OF ENERGY LIFT OUT
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW PROGGED TO SLOWLY ADVANCE THROUGH THE DESERT
SW AND INTO CENTRAL TX...AND ANOTHER SFC FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
REGION. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SHIFT MORE TWD THE EAST ON TUE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND AMID SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM
THE WEST. AT LEAST LOW POPS CONTINUE WED AND THU...HOWEVER...UNTIL
A MORE POTENT FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

13

MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE INTO THE NEAR COASTAL
WATERS AND STALL THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT...WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL THEN KEEP A DAILY CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH MID-WEEK.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  55  79  64  76 /  10  30  40  80
LCH  62  79  67  78 /  30  60  60  60
LFT  64  80  67  80 /  40  60  50  70
BPT  64  78  68  78 /  20  60  60  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

 645 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH VIRGINIA TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY OVER INTERIOR NC. A
STRONG SFC LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST STATES...WHILE A
POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF IS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
ONGOING CONVECTION REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY
(WARM FRONT) EARLY THIS EVENING AND THUS WILL CARRY ONLY LIMITED
POPS AREAWIDE THRU 10 PM OR SO. LATEST HRRR HINTS THAT CONVECTION
OVER CENTRAL NC WILL MOVE NE INTO OUR FA LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT STARTS TO LIFT BACK NORTH...AND HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY TO SHOW HIGH CHC/LIKELY POPS THRU THE
CENTER OF OUR FA. LOWEST POPS (~20%) WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHSIDE
HAMPTON ROADS AND COASTAL NE NC. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHC TSTMS AS
WELL WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL TEND TO HOLD STEADY
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BEFORE RISING PRIOR TO SUNRISE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH WITH THE WARM FROPA. LOWS IN THE LOW 40S EASTERN
SHORE TO NR 60 FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT INTO ONTARIO ON FRIDAY...SHUNTING
A SFC COLD FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS IN A MOIST AIRMASS W/SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ~+2SD...INCREASING LLVL
STEERING FLOW AND MUCAPE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. SPC CONTINUES TO OUTLOOK THE REGION
IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS. THE TIMING OF THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO BE LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.
MAIN CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE POPS TO 70% AND
DELAY TIMING OF PRECIP A COUPLE HRS AS MOST GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED
DOWN THE SYSTM JUST A BIT...MAKING MUCH OF THE DAY THRU 18Z DRY
FOR ALL OF THE FA EXCEPT FAR WRN AREAS. QUITE WARM AS WELL...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LO TO MID 80S ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN...UPR 70S TO
LWR 80S OTHER AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT SLIDES OFFSHORE BY SAT MORNG. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING A PLEASANT WEEKEND TO THE
FA WITH HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S UNDER A MSTLY
SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY.
THE MODELS AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY
SLIDING OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE 12 ECMWF HAS MORE
MOISTURE WITH THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN AND LOOKS MORE LIKE THE GFS.
THE 12Z GFS IS A TOUCH SLOWER WITH THE FRONT..BUT STILL SHOWS GOOD
LIFT AND MOISTURE SO HAVE KEPT THE CHANCE POPS FOR LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. STILL WOULD EXPECT QPF TO BE ON THE
LOW SIDE AS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE IS STILL OVER THE GULF COAST
STATES IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

BY TUESDAY EVENING...SHOULD SEE THE FRONT PUSH INTO SC/GA WITH
HIGH PRESSURE SAGGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW A LOT LESS MOISTURE FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...SO HAVE STARTED TO LOWER POPS DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS
NOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A DRY
DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE UNCERTAINTY COMES ON THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWEST AND WITH A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...SHOULD SEE GULF MOISTURE BEGINNING TO ADVECT BACK INTO
THE REGION. HAVE MAINTAINED THE CHANCE POPS FOR NOW AS TIMING MAY
BE A QUESTION...BUT EXPECT TO SEE A DECENT RAINFALL EVENT LATE
NEXT WEEK AS WAVES OF ENERGY LIFT NE AROUND THE DEVELOPING TROUGH.

FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE GENERALLY RUN CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S MOST OF THE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH DID LOWER VALUES A TOUCH ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE HIGH MORE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ON WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY IF WEDGING SETS UP
WITH OVERRUNING CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...NE TO E WINDS WERE KEEPING A MOIST MARINE LAYER AT THE
SURFACE WITH GENERALLY IFR CIGS. ORF AND ECG WILL BE INTERMITTENTLY
MVFR AND POSSIBLY SBY (NOT IN THE TAF) AS WELL. FOLLOWED CONSISTENCY
OF THE MOS AND BROUGHT CONDS DOWN TO LIFR/VLIFR OVERNIGHT.

S/SW WINDS DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WHICH WILL
SLOWLY SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SW WINDS MAY BE GUSTY
(AROUND 25 KTS) AT TIMES AFT 15Z.

SCT TSTMS...SOME STRONG...MAY IMPACT THE TAF SITES LATE FRIDAY
AFTN/EVENING. VFR AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
STILL SEEING THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NERN US NOSING DOWN INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. WIND
ARE GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KT OUT OF THE E TO NE. THIS IS SERVING TO
KEEPING THE COAST WATERS STILL IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE FOR THE
NORTHERN 2 COASTAL ZONES...SO HAVE KEPT SCA ON GOING. THIS HIGH
WILL PULL OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND THE FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHERLY
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY. IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL SEE WINDS KICK UP TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KT.
THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE STRONGER...BUT THE COOLER WATER WILL SERVE
TO KEEP THE HIGHER WINDS OFF THE WATER SURFACE. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT AND THESE STORMS COULD BRIEFLY BRING
THE STRONGER WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. ONCE THE WINDS TURN NW
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY SEE THE WINDS DIMINISH LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT BACK TO 10 TO 15 KT. SO FOR NOW HAVE EXTEND THE SCA THROUGH
1 AM FRIDAY FOR SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND LINGERS
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER WITH
THE WINDS DIMINISHING ON SUNDAY TO UNDER 10 KT.

THE NEXT FRONT TO IMPACT THE WATERS ARRIVES ON MONDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SW WINDS
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS
AGAIN IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TIME PERIOD WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF QUIET
WEATHER.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...ESS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...ESS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

 212 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OVER NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN TODAY...THEN LIFT BACK NORTH THROUGH VIRGINIA AS A WARM
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES COLD FRONT IN PLACE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA THIS MORNING. CONTINUE TO NOTE SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN/DZ AND
FOG ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ZONES, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED TSTMS CURRENTLY PUSHING SLOWLY TO THE E-SE FROM THE
PIEDMONT INTO CENTRAL VA FOLLOWING WEAK STEERING FLOW JUST NORTH
OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. HAVE CONTINUED TO NOTE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
IN THIS AREA ATOP A STABLE/SATURATED BL. THE HRRR HAS HANDLED
THIS (AND PREVIOUS) ROUND OF CONVECTION QUITE WELL AND HAVE HEDGED
THE FORECAST IN ITS DIRECTION FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NEAR TERM.
WILL TAKE CURRENT SWATH OF CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES THROUGH
08-09Z...BEFORE IT TRANSITIONS ACROSS SE VA AND OFFSHORE BY 15Z.
WITH PW VALUES WELL ABOVE CLIMO AVG (~2SD), SOME BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, AS WITH
YESTERDAY, GIVEN STABLE BL AND LITTLE IF ANY TANGIBLE IMMINENT
FORCING MECHANISM UPSTREAM, WILL GO WITH A RELATIVE LULL IN PCPN
AND A MAINLY DRY ALBEIT MAINLY OVERCAST AFTERNOON. GIVEN MOIST
AIRMASS, WILL STICK WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRAS FOR THE AFTN. LOOK
FOR HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH, LOW TO MID 60S
CENTRAL ZONES, AND U60S TO MID 70S ALONG AND SOUTH OF US 58
CORRIDOR OF SOUTHERN VA/INTERIOR NE NC.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL TRACK NE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
LATE TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RESULTANT DEVELOPING WEAK RIDGING
ALLOWS SW FLOW TO DEVELOP, WHICH WILL SHUNT WEAK FRONTAL ZONE
BACK NORTH BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN
IN THE STABLE/EASTERLY FLOW TODAY, EXPECT MILDER TEMPERATURES BY
AFTN ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA AS FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT BACK
NORTH LATE TDA/TNGT. CONTINUED MILD ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT, WITH
LOWS IN THE U50S TO L60S SOUTH, LOW TO MID 50S NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT INTO ONTARIO ON FRIDAY, SHUNTING SFC COLD
FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. LOCAL AREA
REMAINS IN A MOIST AIRMASS W/SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
60S...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ~+2SD AND INCREASING LLVL
STEERING FLOW AND MUCAPE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE WILL LIKELY
BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE HIGHER END OF
INSTABILITY PROFILES ABOVE 2K J/KG HAVE BEEN DISCOUNTED FOR NOW
GIVEN PREFRONTAL CLOUDS AND UNCERTAINTY OF SHRA COVERAGE EARLY
FRI MORNING. SPC CONTINUES TO OUTLOOK THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
THE PRIMARY TIMING OF THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO BE LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRI EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. PREVIOUS
FORECAST DEPICTING CHC POPS RAMPING INTO LIKELY RANGE DURING THIS
PERIOD HAS BEEN RETAINED, WITH RAIN CHCS DROPPING OFF QUICKLY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. QUITE WARM ON FRIDAY WITH A
FULL DAY OF COMPRESSIONAL HEATING ON WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOOK FOR
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN, UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 INLAND.

COLD FRONT SLIDES OFFSHORE TO BEGIN THE DAY SAT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING A PLEASANT START TO THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE U60S NORTH TO LOW 70S SOUTH UNDER A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED TO LOCATE OVER THE REGION SUN...RESULTING IN
DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW-MID 60S COASTAL
AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MON...RESULTING IN RETURN FLOW
OVER MUCH OF THE SE AND MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS. HIGHS MODERATE
MON...WARMING INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND AND LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS.
FLOW ALOFT ALSO PROGGED TO AMPLIFY MON AS SRN STREAM ENERGY LIFTS
FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
AMPLIFIES OVER THE SE STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW LIFTS INTO THE
MIDWEST MON AFTERNOON...WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD
INTO THE SE STATES. RAINFALL CHANCES RAMP UP OVER THE GULF STATES
AND TN/KY VALLEYS MON NIGHT...INTO THE OH VALLEY TUES. MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING TUES MORNING
TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING MOISTURE AND WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE
SWLY FLOW. SFC LOW PROGGED TO LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
TUES...WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. HAVE
LOWERED POPS TUES AFTERNOON AS BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP
FORECAST TO BE OVER THE OH VALLEY (CLOSET TO BEST
DYNAMICS/MOISTURE)...BUT WILL KEEP LOW-END CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGHS TUES IN THE LOW-MID 70S INLAND TO MID-UPPER 60S
COASTAL AREAS. SWLY FLOW PERSISTS WEDS...RESULTING IN WARM/BUT
PARTLY CLOUDY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS WEDS. HIGHS WEDS FORECAST IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO
MID-UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. MILD LOWS MON NIGHT-WEDS NIGHT DUE TO
RETURN FLOW AND CLOUD COVER. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...NE TO E WINDS WERE KEEPING A MOIST MARINE LAYER AT THE
SURFACE WITH GENERALLY IFR CIGS. ORF AND ECG WILL BE INTERMITTENTLY
MVFR AND POSSIBLY SBY (NOT IN THE TAF) AS WELL. FOLLOWED CONSISTENCY
OF THE MOS AND BROUGHT CONDS DOWN TO LIFR/VLIFR OVERNIGHT.

S/SW WINDS DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WHICH WILL
SLOWLY SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SW WINDS MAY BE GUSTY
(AROUND 25 KTS) AT TIMES AFT 15Z.

SCT TSTMS...SOME STRONG...MAY IMPACT THE TAF SITES LATE FRIDAY
AFTN/EVENING. VFR AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND THEN COME TO AN
END ACROSS SRN COASTAL WATERS BY MID TO LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE...A
FRONT THAT CROSSED THE WATERS ON WED WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS TODAY. PERSISTENT N-NE WINDS AOB 15KT HAVE KEPT SEAS
ELEVATED BTWN 4-7FT FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO THE VA/NC BORDER. SEAS
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BELOW 5FT FOR COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF PARRAMORE
ISLAND BY THIS AFTN...AND REMAIN AROUND 5FT CLOSER TO 20NM FOR NRN
COASTAL WATERS TODAY THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY BEFORE FALLING BELOW
5FT/SCA THRESHOLDS.

THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS NWD AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BEGIN E-SE AOB 15KT AND THEN BECOME MORE
SLY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT (15-20KT COASTAL WATERS...AOB 15KT
BAY/RIVERS/SOUND). SPEEDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AROUND SUNRISE FRI
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20KT WITH GUSTS OF 25-
30KT DURING THE AFTN. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 3-4FT TONIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING AND THEN BUILD TWD 5FT FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT BY MID-LATE FRI MORNING. WAVES 2-3FT TONIGHT WILL THEN AVERAGE
3FT ON FRI. THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS FRI NIGHT WITH STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC
THUNDERSTORM WINDS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. MARINERS SHOULD BE AWARE OF
RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS AND PLAN FOR A QUICK ROUTE TO SAFE
HARBOR WHEN NEEDED LATE FRI AFTN/EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRI
NIGHT...A COOLER AIRMASS DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON
SAT. A DAYTIME ARRIVAL OF THE COOLER AIR WILL DECREASE CHANCES FOR
POST-FRONTAL SCA WINDS. EXPECT W-N WINDS ON SAT AOB
15KT...DECREASING TO AOB 10KT SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND SETTLES OVER THE WATERS ON SUN/SUN
NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...BMD



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

 423 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OVER NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN TODAY...THEN LIFT BACK NORTH THROUGH VIRGINIA AS A WARM
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES COLD FRONT IN PLACE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA THIS MORNING. CONTINUE TO NOTE SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN/DZ AND
FOG ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ZONES, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED TSTMS CURRENTLY PUSHING SLOWLY TO THE E-SE FROM THE
PIEDMONT INTO CENTRAL VA FOLLOWING WEAK STEERING FLOW JUST NORTH
OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. HAVE CONTINUED TO NOTE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
IN THIS AREA ATOP A STABLE/SATURATED BL. THE HRRR HAS HANDLED
THIS (AND PREVIOUS) ROUND OF CONVECTION QUITE WELL AND HAVE HEDGED
THE FORECAST IN ITS DIRECTION FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NEAR TERM.
WILL TAKE CURRENT SWATH OF CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES THROUGH
08-09Z...BEFORE IT TRANSITIONS ACROSS SE VA AND OFFSHORE BY 15Z.
WITH PW VALUES WELL ABOVE CLIMO AVG (~2SD), SOME BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, AS WITH
YESTERDAY, GIVEN STABLE BL AND LITTLE IF ANY TANGIBLE IMMINENT
FORCING MECHANISM UPSTREAM, WILL GO WITH A RELATIVE LULL IN PCPN
AND A MAINLY DRY ALBEIT MAINLY OVERCAST AFTERNOON. GIVEN MOIST
AIRMASS, WILL STICK WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRAS FOR THE AFTN. LOOK
FOR HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH, LOW TO MID 60S
CENTRAL ZONES, AND U60S TO MID 70S ALONG AND SOUTH OF US 58
CORRIDOR OF SOUTHERN VA/INTERIOR NE NC.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL TRACK NE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
LATE TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RESULTANT DEVELOPING WEAK RIDGING
ALLOWS SW FLOW TO DEVELOP, WHICH WILL SHUNT WEAK FRONTAL ZONE
BACK NORTH BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN
IN THE STABLE/EASTERLY FLOW TODAY, EXPECT MILDER TEMPERATURES BY
AFTN ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA AS FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT BACK
NORTH LATE TDA/TNGT. CONTINUED MILD ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT, WITH
LOWS IN THE U50S TO L60S SOUTH, LOW TO MID 50S NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT INTO ONTARIO ON FRIDAY, SHUNTING SFC COLD
FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. LOCAL AREA
REMAINS IN A MOIST AIRMASS W/SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
60S...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ~+2SD AND INCREASING LLVL
STEERING FLOW AND MUCAPE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE WILL LIKELY
BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE HIGHER END OF
INSTABILITY PROFILES ABOVE 2K J/KG HAVE BEEN DISCOUNTED FOR NOW
GIVEN PREFRONTAL CLOUDS AND UNCERTAINTY OF SHRA COVERAGE EARLY
FRI MORNING. SPC CONTINUES TO OUTLOOK THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
THE PRIMARY TIMING OF THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO BE LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRI EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. PREVIOUS
FORECAST DEPICTING CHC POPS RAMPING INTO LIKELY RANGE DURING THIS
PERIOD HAS BEEN RETAINED, WITH RAIN CHCS DROPPING OFF QUICKLY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. QUITE WARM ON FRIDAY WITH A
FULL DAY OF COMPRESSIONAL HEATING ON WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOOK FOR
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN, UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 INLAND.

COLD FRONT SLIDES OFFSHORE TO BEGIN THE DAY SAT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING A PLEASANT START TO THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE U60S NORTH TO LOW 70S SOUTH UNDER A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED TO LOCATE OVER THE REGION SUN...RESULTING IN
DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW-MID 60S COASTAL
AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MON...RESULTING IN RETURN FLOW
OVER MUCH OF THE SE AND MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS. HIGHS MODERATE
MON...WARMING INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND AND LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS.
FLOW ALOFT ALSO PROGGED TO AMPLIFY MON AS SRN STREAM ENERGY LIFTS
FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
AMPLIFIES OVER THE SE STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW LIFTS INTO THE
MIDWEST MON AFTERNOON...WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD
INTO THE SE STATES. RAINFALL CHANCES RAMP UP OVER THE GULF STATES
AND TN/KY VALLEYS MON NIGHT...INTO THE OH VALLEY TUES. MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING TUES MORNING
TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING MOISTURE AND WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE
SWLY FLOW. SFC LOW PROGGED TO LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
TUES...WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. HAVE
LOWERED POPS TUES AFTERNOON AS BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP
FORECAST TO BE OVER THE OH VALLEY (CLOSET TO BEST
DYNAMICS/MOISTURE)...BUT WILL KEEP LOW-END CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGHS TUES IN THE LOW-MID 70S INLAND TO MID-UPPER 60S
COASTAL AREAS. SWLY FLOW PERSISTS WEDS...RESULTING IN WARM/BUT
PARTLY CLOUDY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS WEDS. HIGHS WEDS FORECAST IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO
MID-UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. MILD LOWS MON NIGHT-WEDS NIGHT DUE TO
RETURN FLOW AND CLOUD COVER. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FIRST ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...
ALONG WITH THE FRONT THAT DROPPED SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WED
EVENING. A SECOND WAVE OF DISSIPATING MCS ENERGY IS MOVING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING...BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MID
MORNING (09/1500Z) BEFORE COMING TO AN END. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE
ERRATIC WIND GUSTS AROUND 30KT...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND PERIODS
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. ALL TAF SITES WILL BE IMPACTED BY
THE AFOREMENTIONED THUNDERSTORM CONDITIONS IN ADDITION TO LIFR
CEILINGS AND BR/FG. ONCE PRECIP COMES TO AN END LATER THIS
MORNING...CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AS A WARM
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN AS
PLENTY OF MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
INTERACTS WITH THE WARM FRONT.

BREEZY S-SW WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 20-30KT SHOULD ALSO BE
ANTICIPATED LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTN/EVENING AND THE CHANCES FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES.
RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS DUE TO STRONG GUSTY THUNDERSTORM
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL IMPACT ALL TAF SITES DURING THIS
TIME. THE FRONT AND ALL PRECIPITATION MOVE OFF THE COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE DURING THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND THEN COME TO AN
END ACROSS SRN COASTAL WATERS BY MID TO LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE...A
FRONT THAT CROSSED THE WATERS ON WED WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS TODAY. PERSISTENT N-NE WINDS AOB 15KT HAVE KEPT SEAS
ELEVATED BTWN 4-7FT FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO THE VA/NC BORDER. SEAS
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BELOW 5FT FOR COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF PARRAMORE
ISLAND BY THIS AFTN...AND REMAIN AROUND 5FT CLOSER TO 20NM FOR NRN
COASTAL WATERS TODAY THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY BEFORE FALLING BELOW
5FT/SCA THRESHOLDS.

THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS NWD AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BEGIN E-SE AOB 15KT AND THEN BECOME MORE
SLY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT (15-20KT COASTAL WATERS...AOB 15KT
BAY/RIVERS/SOUND). SPEEDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AROUND SUNRISE FRI
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20KT WITH GUSTS OF 25-
30KT DURING THE AFTN. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 3-4FT TONIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING AND THEN BUILD TWD 5FT FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT BY MID-LATE FRI MORNING. WAVES 2-3FT TONIGHT WILL THEN AVERAGE
3FT ON FRI. THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS FRI NIGHT WITH STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC
THUNDERSTORM WINDS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. MARINERS SHOULD BE AWARE OF
RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS AND PLAN FOR A QUICK ROUTE TO SAFE
HARBOR WHEN NEEDED LATE FRI AFTN/EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRI
NIGHT...A COOLER AIRMASS DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON
SAT. A DAYTIME ARRIVAL OF THE COOLER AIR WILL DECREASE CHANCES FOR
POST-FRONTAL SCA WINDS. EXPECT W-N WINDS ON SAT AOB
15KT...DECREASING TO AOB 10KT SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND SETTLES OVER THE WATERS ON SUN/SUN
NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

 208 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OVER NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...THEN LIFT BACK NORTH THROUGH VIRGINIA AS A
WARM FRONT THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WHAT`S LEFT OF A DECAYING OH VLY MCS WAS MOVING THROUGH NE NC AS
OF 10 PM. THIS BATCH OF SHOWERS AND SUB-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT-1AM. OTW...A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SITS JUST SOUTH OF THE FA AND SHOULD REMAIN STATIONARY
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW OVERCAST CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN INTO THE LOCAL AREA
FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE NEXT BATCH OF PCPN IS MAKING ITS WAY
THROUGH THE OH VLY LATE THIS EVENING AND IS SHOWN BY THE LATEST
HRRR TO MAKE A RUN AT THE FA BY AROUND 08-09Z...THEN MOVING SE
THRU 15Z. THE HRRR DID A GOOD JOB HANDLING THE MCS THIS EVENING SO
WILL LEAN TOWARD ITS SOLUTION OVERNIGHT AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. LOWS TONIGHT FROM NR 40 MD EASTERN SHORE TO THE
LOW/MID 50S SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN...WITH DEVELOPING SW FLOW EVENTUALLY
PUSHING IT BACK NWD AS A WARM FRONT BY LATE THU. HIGHS THU WILL
RANGE FROM THE 50S ON THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE U60S TO M70S WITH
MORE TIME IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SRN/WRN AREAS. POPS REMAIN IN
THE CHANCE RANGE AS SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN
PERIODS FOR SCT SHRAS...AND ISOLTD TSTMS ESPECIALLY OVER SRN/WRN
AREAS.

THE SFC LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL TRACK NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
LATE THU/FRI WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING INTO OUR AREA
FM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY ON FRI/FRI NGT. CHANCES OF ADDITIONAL
SHRAS/TSTMS INCREASE FM W TO E THRU THE DAY FRI...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE (60% POPS) IN THE AFTN/EVE HRS. SOME TSTMS MAY HAVE STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN...AND HV MAINTAINED THIS
MENTION IN THE HWO. MORE SUN/COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH WARMER TEMPS ON FRIDAY COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS DAYS AS THE ENTIRE FA RETURNS INTO THE WARM SECTOR. LOOK
FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...WITH SOME MID 80S POSSIBLE
ACROSS SE AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED TO LOCATE OVER THE REGION SUN...RESULTING IN
DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW-MID 60S COASTAL
AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MON...RESULTING IN RETURN FLOW
OVER MUCH OF THE SE AND MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS. HIGHS MODERATE
MON...WARMING INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND AND LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS.
FLOW ALOFT ALSO PROGGED TO AMPLIFY MON AS SRN STREAM ENERGY LIFTS
FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
AMPLIFIES OVER THE SE STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW LIFTS INTO THE
MIDWEST MON AFTERNOON...WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD
INTO THE SE STATES. RAINFALL CHANCES RAMP UP OVER THE GULF STATES
AND TN/KY VALLEYS MON NIGHT...INTO THE OH VALLEY TUES. MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING TUES MORNING
TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING MOISTURE AND WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE
SWLY FLOW. SFC LOW PROGGED TO LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
TUES...WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. HAVE
LOWERED POPS TUES AFTERNOON AS BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP
FORECAST TO BE OVER THE OH VALLEY (CLOSET TO BEST
DYNAMICS/MOISTURE)...BUT WILL KEEP LOW-END CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGHS TUES IN THE LOW-MID 70S INLAND TO MID-UPPER 60S
COASTAL AREAS. SWLY FLOW PERSISTS WEDS...RESULTING IN WARM/BUT
PARTLY CLOUDY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS WEDS. HIGHS WEDS FORECAST IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO
MID-UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. MILD LOWS MON NIGHT-WEDS NIGHT DUE TO
RETURN FLOW AND CLOUD COVER. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FIRST ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...
ALONG WITH THE FRONT THAT DROPPED SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WED
EVENING. A SECOND WAVE OF DISSIPATING MCS ENERGY IS MOVING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING...BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MID
MORNING (09/1500Z) BEFORE COMING TO AN END. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE
ERRATIC WIND GUSTS AROUND 30KT...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND PERIODS
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. ALL TAF SITES WILL BE IMPACTED BY
THE AFOREMENTIONED THUNDERSTORM CONDITIONS IN ADDITION TO LIFR
CEILINGS AND BR/FG. ONCE PRECIP COMES TO AN END LATER THIS
MORNING...CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AS A WARM
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN AS
PLENTY OF MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
INTERACTS WITH THE WARM FRONT.

BREEZY S-SW WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 20-30KT SHOULD ALSO BE
ANTICIPATED LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTN/EVENING AND THE CHANCES FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES.
RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS DUE TO STRONG GUSTY THUNDERSTORM
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL IMPACT ALL TAF SITES DURING THIS
TIME. THE FRONT AND ALL PRECIPITATION MOVE OFF THE COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE DURING THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO THE VA/NC
BORDER ADDED TO SCA FLAGS THROUGH 700 AM THIS MORNING DUE TO SEAS
OF 4-5 FT.

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS LOCATED JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE WATER
THIS AFTERNOON. THE RESULT IS N-NE FLOW...AVG 10-15 KT. STRONGER
GRADIENT EXISTS OVER THE NRN COASTAL WATERS...WHERE A FEW GUSTS 25-
28 KT OBSERVED. SEAS HAVE BUILT TO 6-8 FT OVER THE NRN COASTAL
ZONES...GENERALLY NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND. FARTHER SOUTH...SEAS
AVG 2-4 FT. SCA HEADLINES REMAIN IN EFFECT NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT FOR SEAS. GRADIENT WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AOB 15
KT...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED (4-7 FT) AS NE FLOW PERSISTS.
BACKDOOR FRONT REMAINS JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE WATER
THURS...SLOWLY LIFTING BACK NWD. FLOW BECOMES MORE ONSHORE...E-NE
GENERALLY 10-15 KT. SEAS REMAIN 4-6 FT NORTH OF PARRAMORE
ISLAND...DROPPING BELOW 5 FT SOUTH. BACKDOOR FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF
THE WATER FINALLY THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING AS A WARM FRONT. FLOW
BECOMES SLY...INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT RIVERS/BAY/SOUND AND 20 KT
COASTAL WATERS. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRI AFTERNOON
AS THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES DUE TO 4TH PERIOD AND BEING MARGINAL
ATTM. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS FRI NIGHT...WITH FLOW BECOMING
NWLY POST FRONTAL. BEST CAA REMAINS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...BUT A
FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE BAY AND 25 KT COASTAL WATERS
BRIEFLY LATE FRI NIGHT-EARLY SAT MORNING. SEAS BUILD TO 4-6 FT FRI
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD/SAM



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

 534 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015

STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE PASSING JUST WEST OF MICHIGAN WILL BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY
RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A
PLEASANT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015

POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW
TORNADOES WILL INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING... MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF I-96. THE THREAT WILL END SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WARM UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO OUR SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO
THE AREA AFTER 5 PM NOW THAT THE POTENT SHORTWAVE OVR KS/NE IS
EJECTING NORTHEAST. THIS FEATURE TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
MOVES TOWARD WISCONSIN LATER THIS EVENING... LEADING TO A DEEPENING
OF THE SFC LOW AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE MILWAUKEE AREA.

THIS SYNOPTIC SET UP WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT/TRIPLE POINT EXTENDING
EAST OF THE DEEPENING SFC LOW LEADS TO STRONG CONCERNS FOR ROTATING
CELLS AND SPIN UPS NEAR THE WARM FRONT THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES INTO
SWRN LWR MI... DUE TO HIGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES AND POTENTIALLY
AVAILABLE UPDRAFT HELICITY. TORNADO WATCHES ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT
JUST UPSTREAM OF SW LWR MI AND THE LATEST WATCH... 41... HAS A MEAN
STORM MOTION VECTOR OF 240 DEGREES AT 40 KTS.

IT SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT TO BELIEVE WE WILL SEE SFC BASED
CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD 00Z BASED
ON LATEST RUC GUIDANCE AND MESOANALYSIS TO OUR SW.

THE OTHER CONCERN THIS EVENING IS FOR LINES/BOWS TO DEVELOP IN THE
UPSTREAM TORNADO WATCH AREAS AND RACE RAPIDLY EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS
PARTS OF SW MI. THESE FEATURES COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WIND GUSTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

ALTHOUGH ANY STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION WILL END AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT... STRONG SYNOPTIC WIND GUSTS
BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO CONTINUED DEEPENING OF THE SFC LOW OVR NRN
LWR MI WILL LEAD TO SOME GUSTS TO 50 MPH OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WITH HIGH CLOUD BASES UNDER THE UPPER LOW ON
FRIDAY COULD HELP PROMOTE STRONG GUSTS AS WELL. WILL ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

THINGS QUIET DOWN CONSIDERABLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015

WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER FOR A CHANGE FROM SUNDAY AT LEAST INTO
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. STILL A CHANCE OF A WET STRETCH ON WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY BUT TIMING IS REALLY UNCERTAIN.

OVERALL PATTER IS SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE WITH GOOD NWP AGREEMENT ON
WEST COAST TROF AND EAST COAST RIDGE DEVELOPING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SUCH A PATTERN WILL PROVIDE THE WARMTH WITH POSITIVE H85 TEMPS
THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK.

AFTER MID 60S ON SUNDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THINKING IT WILL LIKELY COOL MONDAY BY JUST A FEW DEGREES
OVER SUNDAY AS THE UPSTREAM HIGH IS WEAK AND THERE IS JUST NOT MUCH
OF A PUSH OF COLD AIR.  THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY EVENING SO STILL THINKING SCT
SHOWERS ARE A GOOD BET WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ITSELF. IN ANY CASE
IT SHOULD BE A QUICK HITTER AND AT LEAST THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY
WILL BE DRY AND SEASONABLE.

AFTER THAT THERE IS MUCH DISAGREEMENT ON HOW PROGRESSIVE WEST COAST
TROF WILL BE AND HOW MUCH AND WHEN WILL A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
EJECT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN GREAT LAKES.
EACH OF THE PAST FEW DAYS THE GFS/ECM HAVE BEEN DELAYING THE SYSTEM
BY A DAY...YESTERDAY THE SIGNAL WAS FOR A WEDNESDAY EVENT WHILE
TODAY
IT IS NOW LOOKING LIKE A THURSDAY EVENT.  BASICALLY...THE POTENTIAL
HIS SMEARED OUT IN THE FORECAST WITH CHANCE POPS FOR TUE NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015

WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR BY EARLY EVENING AS WARM
FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD. STILL LOOKING AT SEVERAL HOURS OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MID EVENING...A FEW STORMS COULD
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL BETWEEN 22Z-04Z THIS EVENING ALONG
AND SOUTH OF ROUGHLY A KMKG-KGRR-KAMA LINE.

EXPECTING SFC WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KTS FRIDAY MORNING WITH
MODERATE CHOP BELOW 5KFT. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TOWARDS
FRIDAY EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF SOME LOW TOP CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WITH SMALL HAIL FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING BETWEEN 21Z - 03Z.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015

WILL UPGRADE THE GALE WATCH TO A WARNING AS WINDS INCREASE
DRAMATICALLY OUT OF THE WEST LATER TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 534 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015

2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE PAST 15 HOURS IN PORTIONS
OF OTTAWA... KENT... AND OCEANA COUNTIES. 1 TO 2 INCHES HAS FALLEN
IN MANY LAKESHORE AND CENTRAL MICHIGAN COMMUNITIES... AND A
QUARTER INCH TO 1 INCH IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. A FEW RIVERS HAVE
BEGUN RISING. THE ROGUE BELOW ROCKFORD IS ALREADY ABOVE BANKFULL.
SEVERAL OTHER RIVERS ARE FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE OR CLOSE TO BANKFULL.
AS SUCH... RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED IN ADDITION TO
THE AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY. RIVERS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED TONIGHT
AS MORE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ037>040-
     043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

LM...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...COBB
AVIATION...COBB
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...MEADE






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

 330 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015

STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE PASSING JUST WEST OF MICHIGAN WILL BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY
RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A
PLEASANT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015

POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW
TORNADOES WILL INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING... MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF I-96. THE THREAT WILL END SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WARM UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO OUR SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO
THE AREA AFTER 5 PM NOW THAT THE POTENT SHORTWAVE OVR KS/NE IS
EJECTING NORTHEAST. THIS FEATURE TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
MOVES TOWARD WISCONSIN LATER THIS EVENING... LEADING TO A DEEPENING
OF THE SFC LOW AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE MILWAUKEE AREA.

THIS SYNOPTIC SET UP WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT/TRIPLE POINT EXTENDING
EAST OF THE DEEPENING SFC LOW LEADS TO STRONG CONCERNS FOR ROTATING
CELLS AND SPIN UPS NEAR THE WARM FRONT THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES INTO
SWRN LWR MI... DUE TO HIGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES AND POTENTIALLY
AVAILABLE UPDRAFT HELICITY. TORNADO WATCHES ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT
JUST UPSTREAM OF SW LWR MI AND THE LATEST WATCH... 41... HAS A MEAN
STORM MOTION VECTOR OF 240 DEGREES AT 40 KTS.

IT SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT TO BELIEVE WE WILL SEE SFC BASED
CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD 00Z BASED
ON LATEST RUC GUIDANCE AND MESOANALYSIS TO OUR SW.

THE OTHER CONCERN THIS EVENING IS FOR LINES/BOWS TO DEVELOP IN THE
UPSTREAM TORNADO WATCH AREAS AND RACE RAPIDLY EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS
PARTS OF SW MI. THESE FEATURES COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WIND GUSTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

ALTHOUGH ANY STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION WILL END AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT... STRONG SYNOPTIC WIND GUSTS
BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO CONTINUED DEEPENING OF THE SFC LOW OVR NRN
LWR MI WILL LEAD TO SOME GUSTS TO 50 MPH OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WITH HIGH CLOUD BASES UNDER THE UPPER LOW ON
FRIDAY COULD HELP PROMOTE STRONG GUSTS AS WELL. WILL ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

THINGS QUIET DOWN CONSIDERABLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.



.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015

WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER FOR A CHANGE FROM SUNDAY AT LEAST INTO
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. STILL A CHANCE OF A WET STRETCH ON WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY BUT TIMING IS REALLY UNCERTAIN.

OVERALL PATTER IS SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE WITH GOOD NWP AGREEMENT ON
WEST COAST TROF AND EAST COAST RIDGE DEVELOPING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SUCH A PATTERN WILL PROVIDE THE WARMTH WITH POSITIVE H85 TEMPS
THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK.

AFTER MID 60S ON SUNDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THINKING IT WILL LIKELY COOL MONDAY BY JUST A FEW DEGREES
OVER SUNDAY AS THE UPSTREAM HIGH IS WEAK AND THERE IS JUST NOT MUCH
OF A PUSH OF COLD AIR.  THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY EVENING SO STILL THINKING SCT
SHOWERS ARE A GOOD BET WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ITSELF. IN ANY CASE
IT SHOULD BE A QUICK HITTER AND AT LEAST THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY
WILL BE DRY AND SEASONABLE.

AFTER THAT THERE IS MUCH DISAGREEMENT ON HOW PROGRESSIVE WEST COAST
TROF WILL BE AND HOW MUCH AND WHEN WILL A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
EJECT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN GREAT LAKES.
EACH OF THE PAST FEW DAYS THE GFS/ECM HAVE BEEN DELAYING THE SYSTEM
BY A DAY...YESTERDAY THE SIGNAL WAS FOR A WEDNESDAY EVENT WHILE
TODAY
IT IS NOW LOOKING LIKE A THURSDAY EVENT.  BASICALLY...THE POTENTIAL
HIS SMEARED OUT IN THE FORECAST WITH CHANCE POPS FOR TUE NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015

WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR BY EARLY EVENING AS WARM
FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD. STILL LOOKING AT SEVERAL HOURS OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MID EVENING...A FEW STORMS COULD
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL BETWEEN 22Z-04Z THIS EVENING ALONG
AND SOUTH OF ROUGHLY A KMKG-KGRR-KAMA LINE.

EXPECTING SFC WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KTS FRIDAY MORNING WITH
MODERATE CHOP BELOW 5KFT. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TOWARDS
FRIDAY EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF SOME LOW TOP CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WITH SMALL HAIL FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING BETWEEN 21Z - 03Z.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015

WILL UPGRADE THE GALE WATCH TO A WARNING AS WINDS INCREASE
DRAMATICALLY OUT OF THE WEST LATER TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015

RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE RUNNING
NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL... AND ARE CURRENTLY STEADY OR SLOWLY
RISING. MORE RISES ARE EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OF AN INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THERE IS ALSO
A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY GREATER RAINFALL AMOUNTS... IF THUNDERSTORMS
MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AND
PONDING OF WATER ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEK... THOUGH RIVERS SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY WITHIN THEIR BANKS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ037>040-
     043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

LM...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...COBB
AVIATION...COBB
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

 203 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015

LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015

A WET AND INCREASINGLY MILD PERIOD IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS FOR THE AREA. THIS RESULTS FROM A FRONTAL
SYSTEM CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND ILLINOIS THAT WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA TODAY. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED.
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTH.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND BRING AN END TO THE
RAIN. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE IN WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT THEN FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL THEN COME SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015

THE STORY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM EARLIER. STILL WAITING TO SEE
SOME SFC INSTABILITY DEVELOP/SPREAD NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA AND
LATEST GUIDANCE STILL HOLDS OFF ON THAT OCCURRING UNTIL AFTER 3-4
PM AT THE EARLIEST. UNTIL THEN... NUMEROUS ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.

WHILE THE LATEST RUC SHOWS SFC BASED CAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG SPREADING
IN BY EARLY EVENING WITH THE WMFNT REACHING NEAR I-96... THAT FAR
NORTHWARD EXTENT IS QUESTIONABLE AND THE PROGGED INSTABILITY
SOUTH OF MI IS HIGHER. THE LATE DAY/EVENING CONVECTION MAY TEND
TO FAVOR THAT AREA OF HIGHER INSTABILITY... SO THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES FOR SVR ARE FROM THE I-94 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD.

HIGH TEMPS REMAIN CHALLENGING ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-96 WHERE HRRR
INDICATES 70+ SFC TEMPS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FCST IS ON THE PERIOD FROM THE PRESENT TIME
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND DEALING WITH A SEVERE THREAT. AFTER THE
SEVERE THREAT...WE WILL NEED TO DEAL WITH SOME POSSIBLE STRONG WINDS
FOR LATE TONIGHT AND ON FRI. WE AGREE WITH THE SPC WITH REGARDS TO
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL DIMINISHING A BIT FOR TODAY FOR THE AREA IN
GENERAL.

INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA AT
THE CURRENT TIME...LEADING TO A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
THE SW PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS CONVECTION PRODUCED SOME ISOLATED
REPORTS OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ACROSS IL AND IN A LITTLE EARLIER.
THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MARCH TO THE NE...HOWEVER IT HAS LOST
ITS PUNCH A BIT AS IT IS MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE.

THIS FIRST LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MARCH NE THROUGH THE
CWFA...WITH MORE UPSTREAM ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING/THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE PRESENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AS THE
NOSE OF THE LLJ AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS AIMED AT THE AREA
UNTIL AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. EVERYTHING IS ELEVATED CURRENTLY WITH THE
WARM FRONT STILL SITTING ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND IN AS OF 07Z THIS
MORNING. WE WILL SEE THE TRUE WARM FRONT LIKELY MOVE UP INTO THE
SRN/CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWFA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
WAVE COMING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA.

WE WILL SEE SFC BASED INSTABILITY OF UP TO 1000 J/KG SNEAK INTO THE
AREA AFTER 18Z AND MORE TOWARD 00Z. THE DEGREE OF SFC BASED
INSTABILITY IS A FAIR AMOUNT LESS THAN THE AMOUNT THAT BUILDS SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE CWFA DURING PEAK HEATING. LOW CLOUDS NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT AND THE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION WILL LIMIT THE NRN PROGRESS
OF THE TRUE WARM SECTOR. EVEN WITH INSTABILITY LIMITED...THE STRONG
FORCING AHEAD OF THE INCOMING WAVE AND FAIRLY DECENT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS KEEPS SEVERE WX IN PLAY ESPECIALLY
DOWN SOUTH.

WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH STRONG WINDS ONLY 2K FT OFF
OF THE SFC AND A UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILE. HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...HOWEVER LIMITED CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30C LAYER WILL KEEP
HAIL FROM BECOMING TOO LARGE FOR THE AREA. A TORNADO REMAINS
POSSIBLE WITH THE 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES OF 100-200 M2/S2 FCST NEAR
THE WARM FRONT IN THE AREA.

STRONG WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT TOWARD MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
THE CORE OF THE WINDS WILL THEN COME THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON FRI.
THERE IS A GOOD POTENTIAL TO TAP 40+ KNOTS OF WIND FRI
MORNING/AFTERNOON. A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS CONSIDERED...HOWEVER IT
SEEMS LIKE IT WILL END UP AS A SOLID ADVISORY EVENT. SOME WRAP
AROUND RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UP NORTH EARLY FRI...AND THEN
DOWN SOUTH FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE LAST UPPER WAVE COMES
THROUGH. THIS SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015

IT WOULD SEEM MORE THAN ANYTHING NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARMER THAN
NORMAL. THE PROSPECT FOR A SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT SEEMS TO
BE DIMINISHING AS THE MODELS ARE TRENDING AWAY FROM PHASING THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS. STILL THERE WOULD BE A THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND ACTUALLY THE THREAT LOOKS BETTER THURSDAY.

THERE SEEMS TO BE A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
CURRENTLY BUT OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS THAT BREAKS DOWN INTO A SERIES OF
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL WAVES. THAT TRANSITION SHOULD SLOW DOWN THE
PROGRESS OF WEST TO EAST MOVING UPPER WAVES AND HENCE OUR SURFACE
WEATHER.

THE FIRST WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC STAYS NORTHERN
STREAM AND MOST OF THAT ENERGY IS UP IN CANADA... STILL THAT SHOULD
BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE CANADIAN GEM IS
SLOWER THAN THE OTHER MODELS WITH THIS BUT WITH CONSENSUS FAVORING
THE FASTER ECMWF AND GFS... I TRENDED THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY DRY.

SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL KEEP IT DRY TUESDAY. I WOULD
EXCEPT OUR CURRENT POPS FOR TUESDAY TO DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY OVER
THE NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES.  OUR CURRENT POP TUESDAY IS MORE OF A
TREND THING THAN ANYTHING ELSE. I DO NOT BELIEVE WE WILL SEE ANY
RAIN TUESDAY.

FINALLY THE ARE SIGNIFICANT MODEL ISSUES ON JUST HOW FAST THE NEXT
UPSTREAM WAVE CAN CROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. I AM
THINKING SLOWER IS BETTER. WEDNESDAY MAY BE DRY TOO.

WITH THE POLAR JET UP IN CANADA MOST OF NEXT WEEK TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. THE WARMEST WEATHER
WILL BE LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES
EAST BRING INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015

WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR BY EARLY EVENING AS WARM
FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD. STILL LOOKING AT SEVERAL HOURS OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MID EVENING...A FEW STORMS COULD
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL BETWEEN 22Z-04Z THIS EVENING ALONG
AND SOUTH OF ROUGHLY A KMKG-KGRR-KAMA LINE.

EXPECTING SFC WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KTS FRIDAY MORNING WITH
MODERATE CHOP BELOW 5KFT. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TOWARDS
FRIDAY EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF SOME LOW TOP CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WITH SMALL HAIL FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING BETWEEN 21Z - 03Z.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015

WE WILL BE ISSUING A GALE WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE NEARSHORE WATERS FOR
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL RAMP UP
SIGNIFICANTLY AND FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN.
WE ARE LOOKING AT TAPPING 40+ KNOTS OF WIND LATER TONIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD COME DOWN FRIDAY EVENING AS THE
GRADIENT RELAXES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015

RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE RUNNING
NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL... AND ARE CURRENTLY STEADY OR SLOWLY
RISING. MORE RISES ARE EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OF AN INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THERE IS ALSO
A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY GREATER RAINFALL AMOUNTS... IF THUNDERSTORMS
MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AND
PONDING OF WATER ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEK... THOUGH RIVERS SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY WITHIN THEIR BANKS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...COBB
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...NJJ






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

 1246 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015

A WET AND INCREASINGLY MILD PERIOD IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS FOR THE AREA. THIS RESULTS FROM A FRONTAL
SYSTEM CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND ILLINOIS THAT WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA TODAY. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED.
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTH.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND BRING AN END TO THE
RAIN. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE IN WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT THEN FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL THEN COME SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015

THE STORY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM EARLIER. STILL WAITING TO SEE
SOME SFC INSTABILITY DEVELOP/SPREAD NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA AND
LATEST GUIDANCE STILL HOLDS OFF ON THAT OCCURRING UNTIL AFTER 3-4
PM AT THE EARLIEST. UNTIL THEN... NUMEROUS ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.

WHILE THE LATEST RUC SHOWS SFC BASED CAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG SPREADING
IN BY EARLY EVENING WITH THE WMFNT REACHING NEAR I-96... THAT FAR
NORTHWARD EXTENT IS QUESTIONABLE AND THE PROGGED INSTABILITY
SOUTH OF MI IS HIGHER. THE LATE DAY/EVENING CONVECTION MAY TEND
TO FAVOR THAT AREA OF HIGHER INSTABILITY... SO THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES FOR SVR ARE FROM THE I-94 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD.

HIGH TEMPS REMAIN CHALLENGING ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-96 WHERE HRRR
INDICATES 70+ SFC TEMPS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FCST IS ON THE PERIOD FROM THE PRESENT TIME
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND DEALING WITH A SEVERE THREAT. AFTER THE
SEVERE THREAT...WE WILL NEED TO DEAL WITH SOME POSSIBLE STRONG WINDS
FOR LATE TONIGHT AND ON FRI. WE AGREE WITH THE SPC WITH REGARDS TO
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL DIMINISHING A BIT FOR TODAY FOR THE AREA IN
GENERAL.

INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA AT
THE CURRENT TIME...LEADING TO A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
THE SW PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS CONVECTION PRODUCED SOME ISOLATED
REPORTS OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ACROSS IL AND IN A LITTLE EARLIER.
THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MARCH TO THE NE...HOWEVER IT HAS LOST
ITS PUNCH A BIT AS IT IS MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE.

THIS FIRST LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MARCH NE THROUGH THE
CWFA...WITH MORE UPSTREAM ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING/THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE PRESENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AS THE
NOSE OF THE LLJ AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS AIMED AT THE AREA
UNTIL AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. EVERYTHING IS ELEVATED CURRENTLY WITH THE
WARM FRONT STILL SITTING ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND IN AS OF 07Z THIS
MORNING. WE WILL SEE THE TRUE WARM FRONT LIKELY MOVE UP INTO THE
SRN/CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWFA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
WAVE COMING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA.

WE WILL SEE SFC BASED INSTABILITY OF UP TO 1000 J/KG SNEAK INTO THE
AREA AFTER 18Z AND MORE TOWARD 00Z. THE DEGREE OF SFC BASED
INSTABILITY IS A FAIR AMOUNT LESS THAN THE AMOUNT THAT BUILDS SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE CWFA DURING PEAK HEATING. LOW CLOUDS NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT AND THE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION WILL LIMIT THE NRN PROGRESS
OF THE TRUE WARM SECTOR. EVEN WITH INSTABILITY LIMITED...THE STRONG
FORCING AHEAD OF THE INCOMING WAVE AND FAIRLY DECENT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS KEEPS SEVERE WX IN PLAY ESPECIALLY
DOWN SOUTH.

WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH STRONG WINDS ONLY 2K FT OFF
OF THE SFC AND A UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILE. HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...HOWEVER LIMITED CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30C LAYER WILL KEEP
HAIL FROM BECOMING TOO LARGE FOR THE AREA. A TORNADO REMAINS
POSSIBLE WITH THE 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES OF 100-200 M2/S2 FCST NEAR
THE WARM FRONT IN THE AREA.

STRONG WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT TOWARD MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
THE CORE OF THE WINDS WILL THEN COME THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON FRI.
THERE IS A GOOD POTENTIAL TO TAP 40+ KNOTS OF WIND FRI
MORNING/AFTERNOON. A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS CONSIDERED...HOWEVER IT
SEEMS LIKE IT WILL END UP AS A SOLID ADVISORY EVENT. SOME WRAP
AROUND RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UP NORTH EARLY FRI...AND THEN
DOWN SOUTH FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE LAST UPPER WAVE COMES
THROUGH. THIS SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015

IT WOULD SEEM MORE THAN ANYTHING NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARMER THAN
NORMAL. THE PROSPECT FOR A SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT SEEMS TO
BE DIMINISHING AS THE MODELS ARE TRENDING AWAY FROM PHASING THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS. STILL THERE WOULD BE A THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND ACTUALLY THE THREAT LOOKS BETTER THURSDAY.

THERE SEEMS TO BE A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
CURRENTLY BUT OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS THAT BREAKS DOWN INTO A SERIES OF
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL WAVES. THAT TRANSITION SHOULD SLOW DOWN THE
PROGRESS OF WEST TO EAST MOVING UPPER WAVES AND HENCE OUR SURFACE
WEATHER.

THE FIRST WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC STAYS NORTHERN
STREAM AND MOST OF THAT ENERGY IS UP IN CANADA... STILL THAT SHOULD
BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE CANADIAN GEM IS
SLOWER THAN THE OTHER MODELS WITH THIS BUT WITH CONSENSUS FAVORING
THE FASTER ECMWF AND GFS... I TRENDED THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY DRY.

SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL KEEP IT DRY TUESDAY. I WOULD
EXCEPT OUR CURRENT POPS FOR TUESDAY TO DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY OVER
THE NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES.  OUR CURRENT POP TUESDAY IS MORE OF A
TREND THING THAN ANYTHING ELSE. I DO NOT BELIEVE WE WILL SEE ANY
RAIN TUESDAY.

FINALLY THE ARE SIGNIFICANT MODEL ISSUES ON JUST HOW FAST THE NEXT
UPSTREAM WAVE CAN CROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. I AM
THINKING SLOWER IS BETTER. WEDNESDAY MAY BE DRY TOO.

WITH THE POLAR JET UP IN CANADA MOST OF NEXT WEEK TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. THE WARMEST WEATHER
WILL BE LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES
EAST BRING INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 753 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015

FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS
EVENING. LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR / MVFR CIGS WILL ALSO PREVAIL MOST OF
THE DAY. THE WARM FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH I-94 BY LATE
AFTERNOON. IF THE WARM FRONT DOES IN FACT REACH I-94 CEILINGS MAY
BECOME VFR FOR A FEW HOURS. THE STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD BE THIS
EVENING JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS. CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH
SUNRISE FRIDAY. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD UNSTABLE AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015

WE WILL BE ISSUING A GALE WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE NEARSHORE WATERS FOR
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL RAMP UP
SIGNIFICANTLY AND FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN.
WE ARE LOOKING AT TAPPING 40+ KNOTS OF WIND LATER TONIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD COME DOWN FRIDAY EVENING AS THE
GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015

RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE RUNNING
NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL... AND ARE CURRENTLY STEADY OR SLOWLY
RISING. MORE RISES ARE EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OF AN INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THERE IS ALSO
A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY GREATER RAINFALL AMOUNTS... IF THUNDERSTORMS
MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AND
PONDING OF WATER ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEK... THOUGH RIVERS SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY WITHIN THEIR BANKS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...NJJ






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

 1147 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015

A WET AND INCREASINGLY MILD PERIOD IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS FOR THE AREA. THIS RESULTS FROM A FRONTAL
SYSTEM CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND ILLINOIS THAT WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA TODAY. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED.
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTH.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND BRING AN END TO THE
RAIN. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE IN WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT THEN FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL THEN COME SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015

THE STORY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM EARLIER. STILL WAITING TO SEE
SOME SFC INSTABILITY DEVELOP/SPREAD NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA AND
LATEST GUIDANCE STILL HOLDS OFF ON THAT OCCURRING UNTIL AFTER 3-4
PM AT THE EARLIEST. UNTIL THEN... NUMEROUS ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.

WHILE THE LATEST RUC SHOWS SFC BASED CAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG SPREADING
IN BY EARLY EVENING WITH THE WMFNT REACHING NEAR I-96... THAT FAR
NORTHWARD EXTENT IS QUESTIONABLE AND THE PROGGED INSTABILITY
SOUTH OF MI IS HIGHER. THE LATE DAY/EVENING CONVECTION MAY TEND
TO FAVOR THAT AREA OF HIGHER INSTABILITY... SO THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES FOR SVR ARE FROM THE I-94 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD.

HIGH TEMPS REMAIN CHALLENGING ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-96 WHERE HRRR
INDICATES 70+ SFC TEMPS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FCST IS ON THE PERIOD FROM THE PRESENT TIME
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND DEALING WITH A SEVERE THREAT. AFTER THE
SEVERE THREAT...WE WILL NEED TO DEAL WITH SOME POSSIBLE STRONG WINDS
FOR LATE TONIGHT AND ON FRI. WE AGREE WITH THE SPC WITH REGARDS TO
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL DIMINISHING A BIT FOR TODAY FOR THE AREA IN
GENERAL.

INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA AT
THE CURRENT TIME...LEADING TO A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
THE SW PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS CONVECTION PRODUCED SOME ISOLATED
REPORTS OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ACROSS IL AND IN A LITTLE EARLIER.
THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MARCH TO THE NE...HOWEVER IT HAS LOST
ITS PUNCH A BIT AS IT IS MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE.

THIS FIRST LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MARCH NE THROUGH THE
CWFA...WITH MORE UPSTREAM ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING/THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE PRESENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AS THE
NOSE OF THE LLJ AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS AIMED AT THE AREA
UNTIL AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. EVERYTHING IS ELEVATED CURRENTLY WITH THE
WARM FRONT STILL SITTING ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND IN AS OF 07Z THIS
MORNING. WE WILL SEE THE TRUE WARM FRONT LIKELY MOVE UP INTO THE
SRN/CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWFA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
WAVE COMING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA.

WE WILL SEE SFC BASED INSTABILITY OF UP TO 1000 J/KG SNEAK INTO THE
AREA AFTER 18Z AND MORE TOWARD 00Z. THE DEGREE OF SFC BASED
INSTABILITY IS A FAIR AMOUNT LESS THAN THE AMOUNT THAT BUILDS SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE CWFA DURING PEAK HEATING. LOW CLOUDS NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT AND THE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION WILL LIMIT THE NRN PROGRESS
OF THE TRUE WARM SECTOR. EVEN WITH INSTABILITY LIMITED...THE STRONG
FORCING AHEAD OF THE INCOMING WAVE AND FAIRLY DECENT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS KEEPS SEVERE WX IN PLAY ESPECIALLY
DOWN SOUTH.

WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH STRONG WINDS ONLY 2K FT OFF
OF THE SFC AND A UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILE. HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...HOWEVER LIMITED CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30C LAYER WILL KEEP
HAIL FROM BECOMING TOO LARGE FOR THE AREA. A TORNADO REMAINS
POSSIBLE WITH THE 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES OF 100-200 M2/S2 FCST NEAR
THE WARM FRONT IN THE AREA.

STRONG WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT TOWARD MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
THE CORE OF THE WINDS WILL THEN COME THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON FRI.
THERE IS A GOOD POTENTIAL TO TAP 40+ KNOTS OF WIND FRI
MORNING/AFTERNOON. A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS CONSIDERED...HOWEVER IT
SEEMS LIKE IT WILL END UP AS A SOLID ADVISORY EVENT. SOME WRAP
AROUND RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UP NORTH EARLY FRI...AND THEN
DOWN SOUTH FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE LAST UPPER WAVE COMES
THROUGH. THIS SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015

IT WOULD SEEM MORE THAN ANYTHING NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARMER THAN
NORMAL. THE PROSPECT FOR A SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT SEEMS TO
BE DIMINISHING AS THE MODELS ARE TRENDING AWAY FROM PHASING THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS. STILL THERE WOULD BE A THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND ACTUALLY THE THREAT LOOKS BETTER THURSDAY.

THERE SEEMS TO BE A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
CURRENTLY BUT OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS THAT BREAKS DOWN INTO A SERIES OF
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL WAVES. THAT TRANSITION SHOULD SLOW DOWN THE
PROGRESS OF WEST TO EAST MOVING UPPER WAVES AND HENCE OUR SURFACE
WEATHER.

THE FIRST WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC STAYS NORTHERN
STREAM AND MOST OF THAT ENERGY IS UP IN CANADA... STILL THAT SHOULD
BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE CANADIAN GEM IS
SLOWER THAN THE OTHER MODELS WITH THIS BUT WITH CONSENSUS FAVORING
THE FASTER ECMWF AND GFS... I TRENDED THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY DRY.

SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL KEEP IT DRY TUESDAY. I WOULD
EXCEPT OUR CURRENT POPS FOR TUESDAY TO DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY OVER
THE NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES.  OUR CURRENT POP TUESDAY IS MORE OF A
TREND THING THAN ANYTHING ELSE. I DO NOT BELIEVE WE WILL SEE ANY
RAIN TUESDAY.

FINALLY THE ARE SIGNIFICANT MODEL ISSUES ON JUST HOW FAST THE NEXT
UPSTREAM WAVE CAN CROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. I AM
THINKING SLOWER IS BETTER. WEDNESDAY MAY BE DRY TOO.

WITH THE POLAR JET UP IN CANADA MOST OF NEXT WEEK TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. THE WARMEST WEATHER
WILL BE LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES
EAST BRING INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 753 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015

FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS
EVENING. LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR / MVFR CIGS WILL ALSO PREVAIL MOST OF
THE DAY. THE WARM FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH I-94 BY LATE
AFTERNOON. IF THE WARM FRONT DOES IN FACT REACH I-94 CEILINGS MAY
BECOME VFR FOR A FEW HOURS. THE STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD BE THIS
EVENING JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS. CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH
SUNRISE FRIDAY. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD UNSTABLE AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015

WE WILL BE ISSUING A GALE WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE NEARSHORE WATERS FOR
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL RAMP UP
SIGNIFICANTLY AND FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN.
WE ARE LOOKING AT TAPPING 40+ KNOTS OF WIND LATER TONIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD COME DOWN FRIDAY EVENING AS THE
GRADIENT RELAXES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 111 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015

RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE RUNNING
NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. RIVER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISING. MORE RISES ARE EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL OF AN INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THERE
IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY GREATER RAINFALL AMOUNTS... IF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS. IN GENERAL...SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. URBAN
AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER ARE POSSIBLE...
THOUGH RIVERS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY WITHIN THEIR BANKS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...NJJ






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 413 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW PAIR OF SHORTWAVES
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF PCPN EARLIER TODAY NOW N AND
E OF THE FCST AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM MANITOBA INTO NRN
ONTARIO WON`T BE A FACTOR IN THE SHORT TERM WEATHER. FARTHER TO THE
NW AND ALSO TO THE SW ARE 2 SHORTWAVES THAT WILL PLAY A ROLE IN WHAT
WILL BECOME A QUICK HITTING SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOWSTORM FOR
PORTIONS OF UPPER MI THU NIGHT. ONE WAVE IS DROPPING INTO NRN
MANITOBA AND THE SECOND WAVE IS OVER NV/UT. DETAILS ON THE HVY/WET
SNOW CAN BE FOUND IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION BELOW.
IN THE WAKE OF THE PCPN EARLIER TODAY...ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
DOMINATES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...THOUGH NOT ALL OF THE LOW-LEVEL
DRY AIR HAS BEEN ERODED...AND THERE IS STILL A FEED OF DRIER AIR AT
THE LOW LEVELS FROM THE E. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SOME BREAKS
DEVELOPING IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER UPPER MI IN THE LAST FEW HRS.
WHERE SOME SUN HAS APPEARED...TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 40S.

SHORTWAVE OVER NV/UT WILL SHIFT E AND RESULT IN SFC LOW PRES
DEVELOPING OVER KS TONIGHT. FARTHER DOWNSTREAM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SUGGESTS MORE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING OUT OVER THE PLAINS.
INCREASING WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME DOWNSTREAM OF THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE TROF AND ENHANCED BY THE SUBTLE LEAD ENERGY WILL LEAD TO A
AN AREA OF RAIN DEVELOPING AND SPREADING/EXPANDING NE INTO UPPER MI
LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING. BASED ON NRN EDGE OF THE POOL OF
MUCAPE THAT LIFTS N INTO WI...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE
COULD BE FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WHETHER TEMPS WILL BE BLO FREEZING
WHEN PCPN BEGINS IS UNCERTAIN. USING MODEL CONSENSUS DIURNAL TEMP
CURVE SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE AREAS WHERE TEMPS MAY BE JUST BLO
FREEZING LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING. HOWEVER...IF TEMPS DON`T
FALL MUCH THIS EVENING...-FZRA POTENTIAL WILL BE DIMINISHED. AT THIS
TIME...NOT EXPECTING SUFFICIENT ICE PROBLEMS ON ROADWAYS TO WARRANT
ADVY ISSUANCE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL OF SOME ICY
CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED SURFACES LATE TONIGHT THRU MID MORNING THU.

AFTER THE INITIAL SURGE OF WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT PCPN THAT SWEEPS NE
LATE TONIGHT/THU MORNING...WILL PROBABLY SEE -RA DIMINISH OR BECOME
MORE SCATTERED FOR A TIME LATE MORNING THRU MID AFTN OR SO AS WE
AWAIT THE MAIN SHORTWAVE/STRONG DYNAMICS THAT WILL LIFT INTO THE
UPPER LAKES THU NIGHT. PCPN IS LESS LIKELY TO DIMINISH OVER THE W
WHERE 850MB TROF WILL EXTEND NE FROM THE APPROACHING LOW ACROSS WRN
UPPER MI/WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM FOCUS ON IMPACT OF EXITING LO
PRES ON FRI/TRAILING SHRTWV AND NEXT CHC FOR RA SUN INTO MON. WHILE
FRI WL STILL BE CHILLY IN THE STRONG NW FLOW LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING LO... EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL AS A MORE ZONAL
PACIFIC FLOW DOMINATES STARTING ON SAT.

FRI...AS MAIN NEGATIVELY TILTED SRN BRANCH SHRTWV WITH ACCOMPANYING
990MB OR SO SFC LO JUST E OF THE SAULT AT 12Z FRI LIFT TO THE NE...
LARGER SCALE DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC WL EXIT AS WELL IN THE MRNG. THE
00Z GFS IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS PROCESS DUE TO A FARTHER W TRACK
OF THE SHRTWV/SFC LO...MAINTAINING MORE SGNFT PCPN AND DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNGVC A BIT LONGER. SINCE THE MODELS DO NOT SHOW A QUICK
PHASING OF THIS SRN BRANCH SHRTWV AND A NRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE
MOVING INTO NRN MN ON FRI MNRG...TENDED AWAY FM THIS SLOWER...
DEEPER SCENARIO. LATEST NCEP DISCUSSION SUPPORTS THE DECISION TO
RELY MORE HEAVILY ON THE 00Z NAM. BUT THE NAM HAS SLOWED DOWN THE
EXIT OF THE SHARPER DYNAMIC FORCING...SO COORDINATED WITH SHORT TERM
FCSTR TO EXTEND WINTER WX HEADLINES THRU FRI MRNG FOR THE N HALF OF
THE HEADLINE AREA. WHILE THE DEPARTURE OF THE SRN BRANCH DYNAMIC
FORCING WL BRING A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE ACCOMPANYING PCPN BY LATE
MRNG...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE NRN BRANCH SHRTWV
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME FAIRLY SHARP DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC DIGGING
INTO THE UPR LKS AND MAINTAINING A SHARP CYC NW FLOW. H925 ARE WINDS
FCST AS HI AS 35-45KTS UNDER THE H85 THERMAL TROF TRAILING THE
DEPARTING LO. WHILE THE PASSAGE OF THE NRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE LATER
IN THE DAY AND ARRIVAL OF LARGER SCALE DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC WL
RESULT IN A WEAKENING OF THE CYC FLOW OVER THE W DURING THE
AFTN...SUSPECT SN WL BE RATHER PERSISTENT OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA.
IN FACT...THE 00Z NAM SHOWS ARND 0.35 INCH OF PCPN FALLING AS SN AT
ERY...AND MANY OF THE HIER RES MODELS SHOW SIMILAR QPF. SO BUMPED UP
POPS OVER ESPECIALLY THE NE HALF OF THE CWA. EVEN THOUGH THE PRES
RISE CENTER BEHIND THE DEPARTING LO WL PASS TO THE S OF UPR MI AND
ELIMINATE AN ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT...FRI WL BE QUITE WINDY
ESPECIALLY OVER THE E...WHERE WIND GUSTS NEAR LK SUP MAY AT LEAST
APRCH ADVY CRITERIA. WITH THE NW FLOW OFF MORE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER
ACROSS THE E HALF OF THE LK AND MORE PERSISTENT PCPN THERE...LOWERED
FCST HI TEMPS OVER THE ERN CWA.

FRI NGT...AFTER THE NRN BRANCH SHRTWV DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LKS ON FRI EVNG...VIGOROUS DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC WL OVERSPREAD
THE ERN CWA...ENDING LINGERING PCPN THERE. STEADY H5 HGT RISES THAT
ARE FCST TO APRCH 100M BTWN 00Z-12Z SAT IN ADVANCE OF TRAILING
SHRTWV/SFC RDG AXIS WL BRING CLRG SKIES AS THE LLVL FLOW BECOMES
MORE ACYC. RATHER STEADY NW BACKING W FLOW TO THE NE OF HI CENTER
MOVING FAIRLY FAR TO THE SW AND INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY WL TEND
TO LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP...BUT TEMPS SHOULD STILL FALL INTO
THE TEENS OVER SOME SN ACROSS THE INTERIOR W HALF...WHICH WL BE
CLOSER TO THE WEAKER PRES GRADIENT AND SEE THE EARLIER INFLUX OF
PWAT AOB 0.25 INCH.

SAT...AS SFC RDG AXIS EXTENDING N OF SFC HI CENTER CROSSING THE
LOWER LKS/OH RIVER VALLEY PASSES OVER THE UPR LKS...EXPECT A MOSUNNY
DAY. AS LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE/WAA IN THE SW FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE RDG LIFT H85 TEMPS UP TO 4C OVER THE W BY 00Z SUN...EXPECT
TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE 50S AWAY FM LK MODERATION THAT WL IMPACT
MAINLY THE ERN CWA. READINGS MAY EVEN APRCH 60 IN THE DOWNSLOPE
AREAS OVER THE W.

SAT NGT...AS THE SFC HI PRES SHIFTS TO THE E...WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WL BRING INCRSG MID CLDS. SOME OF THE MODELS EVEN GENERATE SOME LGT
RA SHOWERS AT THE NOSE OF H85 SW LLJ UP TO 45-50 KTS UNDER
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WITH THE APRCH OF SHRTWV DOWNSTREAM OF A
DEEPENING TROF FARTHER W IN THE NRN PLAINS. INITIAL MSTR RETURN DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE THAT SGFNT...SO WL GO WITH JUST LO CHC POPS FOR NOW
OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA. COMBINATION OF STEADY SW WIND AND
INCRSG CLDS WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL...ESPECIALLY IN THE
DOWNSLOPE AREAS OVER THE W.

SUN/SUN NGT...AS FAIRLY VIGOROUS DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/HGT FALLS IN
ADVANCE OF UPR TROF MOVING E FM THE NRN PLAINS OVERSPREAD UPR MI AND
THE STRONG SW FLOW TAPS MORE COPIOUS MSTR THAT LIFT PWAT CLOSE TO 1
INCH BY 00Z MON...EXPECT MORE NMRS SHOWERS TO OVERSPREAD UPR MI ON
SUN AFTN. BUT THIS PCPN WL THEN END W-E SUN NGT AS ACCOMPANYING
PACIFIC TYPE COLD FNT CROSSES THE UPR LKS AND BRINGS AN INFLUX OF
DRIER AIR IN ADVANCE OF SFC HI PRES. SUSPECT THE RUNOFF FM THE RA AS
WELL AS THE RATHER QUICK SN MELT ACCOMPANYING THE FAIRLY DRAMATIC
WARMUP MAY CAUSE AREA RIVERS TO RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY.

EXTENDED...INCOMING HI PRES/DRY AIRMASS WL BRING A MOSUNNY DAY FOR
MON. SINCE THE AIRMASS WL A MARITIME POLAR PACIFIC ONE...MAX TEMPS
SHOULD RISE INTO THE 50S AWAY FM LK MODERATION. THEN AN APRCHG WARM
FNT ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE LIFTING NE INTO THE PLAINS WL
BRING A RETURN FOR RA CHANCES NEXT TUE/WED. TEMPS WL BE ABOVE NORMAL
WITH PACIFIC AIRMASS IN PLACE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT ALL SITES AS
MOISTURE AND PCPN SPREAD N LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THU. EXPECT CONDITIONS
TO FALL TO IFR AT ALL TERMINALS. PCPN MAY BEGIN AS -FZRA FOR 2-3HRS
AT KCMX/KSAW...BUT WILL CHANGE TO -RA AS TEMPS RISE DURING THE
MORNING. KSAW IS LIKELY TO FALL TO LIFR BY MID MORNING. BY
EVENING...VLIFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT ALL SITES WITH RAIN
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015

AS A DEEPENING LO PRES MOVES FROM THE PLAINS THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT AND INTO SE CANADA ON FRI...EXPECT ENE WINDS UP TO 20
KTS TO BACK TO THE NNW...AND INCREASE UP 35-45 KT GALES OVER MUCH OF
THE E HALF OF THE LAKE BY LATE TONIGHT. OPTED TO ISSUE GALE WARNINGS
FOR THE E HALF. THESE GALE FORCE NNW WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH ON FRI
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE LO PRES EXITS FARTHER TO THE NE
AND THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING HI PRES
RIDGE. LIGHTER WINDS ON SAT WILL THEN BACK TO THE SW FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE E. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
SUN...EXPECT SSW WINDS TO INCREASE UP TO 20-25 KTS. AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES ON SUN NIGHT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W AND DIMINISH QUICKLY
WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER HI PRES ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     MIZ002-009-010.

  WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT FRIDAY
     FOR MIZ001-003-004-084.

  WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     MIZ005.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ251-267.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ249-250-266.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ244-245-248-264-
     265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KC



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 126 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW PAIR OF SHORTWAVES
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF PCPN EARLIER TODAY NOW N AND
E OF THE FCST AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM MANITOBA INTO NRN
ONTARIO WON`T BE A FACTOR IN THE SHORT TERM WEATHER. FARTHER TO THE
NW AND ALSO TO THE SW ARE 2 SHORTWAVES THAT WILL PLAY A ROLE IN WHAT
WILL BECOME A QUICK HITTING SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOWSTORM FOR
PORTIONS OF UPPER MI THU NIGHT. ONE WAVE IS DROPPING INTO NRN
MANITOBA AND THE SECOND WAVE IS OVER NV/UT. DETAILS ON THE HVY/WET
SNOW CAN BE FOUND IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION BELOW.
IN THE WAKE OF THE PCPN EARLIER TODAY...ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
DOMINATES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...THOUGH NOT ALL OF THE LOW-LEVEL
DRY AIR HAS BEEN ERODED...AND THERE IS STILL A FEED OF DRIER AIR AT
THE LOW LEVELS FROM THE E. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SOME BREAKS
DEVELOPING IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER UPPER MI IN THE LAST FEW HRS.
WHERE SOME SUN HAS APPEARED...TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 40S.

SHORTWAVE OVER NV/UT WILL SHIFT E AND RESULT IN SFC LOW PRES
DEVELOPING OVER KS TONIGHT. FARTHER DOWNSTREAM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SUGGESTS MORE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING OUT OVER THE PLAINS.
INCREASING WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME DOWNSTREAM OF THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE TROF AND ENHANCED BY THE SUBTLE LEAD ENERGY WILL LEAD TO A
AN AREA OF RAIN DEVELOPING AND SPREADING/EXPANDING NE INTO UPPER MI
LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING. BASED ON NRN EDGE OF THE POOL OF
MUCAPE THAT LIFTS N INTO WI...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE
COULD BE FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WHETHER TEMPS WILL BE BLO FREEZING
WHEN PCPN BEGINS IS UNCERTAIN. USING MODEL CONSENSUS DIURNAL TEMP
CURVE SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE AREAS WHERE TEMPS MAY BE JUST BLO
FREEZING LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING. HOWEVER...IF TEMPS DON`T
FALL MUCH THIS EVENING...-FZRA POTENTIAL WILL BE DIMINISHED. AT THIS
TIME...NOT EXPECTING SUFFICIENT ICE PROBLEMS ON ROADWAYS TO WARRANT
ADVY ISSUANCE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL OF SOME ICY
CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED SURFACES LATE TONIGHT THRU MID MORNING THU.

AFTER THE INITIAL SURGE OF WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT PCPN THAT SWEEPS NE
LATE TONIGHT/THU MORNING...WILL PROBABLY SEE -RA DIMINISH OR BECOME
MORE SCATTERED FOR A TIME LATE MORNING THRU MID AFTN OR SO AS WE
AWAIT THE MAIN SHORTWAVE/STRONG DYNAMICS THAT WILL LIFT INTO THE
UPPER LAKES THU NIGHT. PCPN IS LESS LIKELY TO DIMINISH OVER THE W
WHERE 850MB TROF WILL EXTEND NE FROM THE APPROACHING LOW ACROSS WRN
UPPER MI/WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015

COMPLEX FORECAST FRONT LOADED IN FIRST PERIOD OF LONG TERM. HIGH
IMPACT WEATHER EXPECTED IN FORM OF RAIN CHANGING TO HEAVY SNOW.

MAIN FACTORS COMING INTO FOCUS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WEATHER. FIRST
ALOFT...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN CONUS THIS MORNING
MOVES TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY THURSDAY EVENING WHILE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS AFTN MOVES
TO AXIS FM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. MAIN JET STREAK
LIFTS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY EVENING WHILE
ANOTHER JET WILL BE IN PROCESS OF EXITING TOWARD GREAT LAKES. AS THE
PLAINS JET ARRIVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY EVENING...LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT
LIFTS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. FOR MOST PART...LEAD WAVE DRIVES
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF H85-H7 TROUGH AND PRIMARY SFC LOW...WHICH
TRACKS FM IOWA AT 00Z FRIDAY TO NORTHERN LK MICHIGAN/NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN BY 06Z FRIDAY AND TO EAST OF SAULT STE MARIE BY 12Z FRIDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON WESTWARD EXTENT OF SFC LOW WHICH
AFFECTS WHERE SWATH OF HEAVY QPF WELL OVER 1 INCH OCCURS ROUGHLY 00Z-
09Z ON FRIDAY. GIVEN VERY STRONG LIFT FM COUPLED JET STRUCTURE AND
ENHANCED DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND PERSISTENT STRONG MID-LEVEL FGEN ALONG
WITH COPIOUS DEEP MOISTURE THAT SHOULD BE ABLE TO TRANSLATE INTO THE
DEEPENING SYSTEM AS MAIN INFLOW FOR TSRA SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH
SOUTHEAST OF UPR MICHIGAN...TEND TO BELIEVE WETTER IDEAS OFFERED UP
BY NAM/GFS SHOWING WELL OVER 1 INCH OF QPF. THOUGH ECMWF REMAINS
DRIER...IT HAS SHOWN NOTEABLE TREND TOWARD STRONGER SYSTEM THE LAST
DAY...SO THAT IS ENCOURAGING AT LEAST FROM THE FORECAST STANDPOINT.

RUNNING WITH THE STRONGER/WETTER IDEA...MAIN STICKING POINT IS HOW
QUICK THE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THE EARLIER THAT
SWITCHOVER OCCURS...THE MORE THAT HEAVY QPF WILL GO TOWARD WET HEAVY
SNOW ACCUMULATION. NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM LAYER BTWN 900MB-800MB
VCNTY OF L`ANSE TO WATERSMEET AT 00Z...THEN TO CRYSTAL FALLS AND
MARQUETTE/HARVEY BY 03Z...BEFORE PUSHING THIS ON THE MUNISING AND
ESCANABA BY 06Z. GFS AND GEM-REGIONAL ARE FARTHER WEST WITH WARM
LAYER ALOFT...THOUGH THEY BOTH TRENDED A BIT EAST WITH TRACK OF SFC
LOW ON THE 12Z RUNS. EXPECT HEAVY WET SNOW TO IMPACT PARTS OF
WESTERN HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN. RETREATING WARM LAYER TO START COULD
ALSO RESULT IN SLEET OF FZRA BEFORE CHANGE TO SNOW OCCURS.

DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN AS
THERE SHOULD BE A NARROW STRIPE OF POSSIBLE VERY HEAVY WET SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE FORCING AND MOISTURE...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS
OVER 8 INCHES SEEM POSSIBLE. MAIN QUANDARY WAS HOW FAR WEST AND EAST
TO PUSH THE WATCH. LEANED A BIT TOWARD THE FARTHER EAST WARM LAYER
IDEA WHICH RESULTED IN BRINGING THE WATCH AS FAR EAST AS MARQUETTE
COUNTY. GIVEN DECENT CHANCE THAT PRECIP STAYS MAINLY RAIN WELL INTO
THE EVENING FOR DICKINSON COUNTY LEFT THEM OUT FOR NOW...THOUGH
COULD SEE NEED FOR ADVY FOR EVENTUALLY SLOPPY INCH OR TWO OF SNOW.
CORRIDER OF HEAVY SNOW LIKELY WILL NOT MAKE IT AS FAR WEST AS IWD
THOUGH LATEST HPC/WWD GRAPHICS STILL HIT FAR WEST FOR DECENT AMOUNT
OF SNOW...BUT SINCE EASTERN PORTIONS OF GOGEBIC COUNTY INTO
ONTONAGON COUNTY WOULD BE IMPACTED BY THE HEAVY SNOW WITH LATEST
THINKING...INCLUDED GOGEBIC AS WELL. ESSENTIALLY SINCE THIS EVENT
COULD BE VERY HIGH IMPACT DECIDED TO GO THIS ROUTE INSTEAD OF HAVING
AN SPS OUT ONLY. WILL TRY TO CONVEY THE UNCERTAINTY DUE TO BOTH
LOCATION OF HEAVIER SNOW AND PTYPE IN THE WSW STATEMENT. COORD WITH
DLH AND GRB ON SNOW AMOUNTS/HEADLINE TIMING.

LOW PRESSURE EXITS OVER EASTERN CANADA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/THERMAL TROUGHING AND ADDITIONAL
FORCING FM THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DROPPING OVER THE AREA SUPPORTS
CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW ON FRIDAY THOUGH MOST OF THE BIGGER SNOW WILL
BE DONE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. KEPT WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S ON
FRIDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS TOO...ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR IN THE
MORNING HOURS. SFC RIDGE CROSSES FRIDAY NIGHT AND TEMPS COULD DIP
INTO THE TEENS. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE LAST NIGHT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WHERE TEMPS DROP BLO FREEZING.

TEMPS THIS WEEKEND LOOKS WARMER...MUCH WARMER. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE
LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGH THAT
MOVES FM SCNTRL CANADA TO NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. MIXING HEIGHTS
UP TO H85 WITH SW WINDS SUPPORT READINGS WELL INTO THE 50S. COOLEST
TEMPS OVER EAST CWA WITH FLOW COMING OFF LK MICHIGAN. SOME LGT RAIN
MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ON SUNDAY AS GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN
SHOWING FOR A WHILE NOW. EVEN SO...WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AND WARMER MIN
TEMPS ON SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOW MANY AREAS TO REACH 60 DEGREES. SO ANY
SNOW THAT DOES OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY SHOULD QUICKLY MELT
THIS WEEKEND.

FURTHER...ONCE THE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING ON SATURDAY THEY SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK SO WE SHOULD ALSO
BEGIN TO MELT GOOD PORTION OF THE SNOWPACK THAT REMAINS OVER MAINLY
NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN. SHOULD SEE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS BEGIN TO
RESPOND WITH THE SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL POSSIBLE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT MOVE
TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES. ANY RAINFALL FM
THIS SYSTEM WOULD ONLY ADD TO THE RUNOFF. SEEMS THAT AFTER THIS
WINTRY SYSTEM WE MIGHT JUST SHIFT INTO THE MAIN SNOWMELT HYDROLOGY
PERIOD OF THE SPRING.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT ALL SITES AS
MOISTURE AND PCPN SPREAD N LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THU. EXPECT CONDITIONS
TO FALL TO IFR AT ALL TERMINALS. PCPN MAY BEGIN AS -FZRA FOR 2-3HRS
AT KCMX/KSAW...BUT WILL CHANGE TO -RA AS TEMPS RISE DURING THE
MORNING. KSAW IS LIKELY TO FALL TO LIFR BY MID MORNING. BY
EVENING...VLIFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT ALL SITES WITH RAIN
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 456 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015

HIGH PRES MOVING E ACROSS QUEBEC AND LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS WILL KEEP LAKE SUPERIOR UNDER GENERAL E TO NE WINDS
OF 10-20KT THRU EARLY THU AFTN. AS THE LOW PRES TRACKS NE ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE MI THU EVENING AND INTO ONTARIO FRI MORNING...WINDS
WILL BACK TO THE NW. OVER THE CNTRL PART OF LAKE SUPERIOR...THE WIND
WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 20-30KT...AND OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR N TO NW
GALES WILL DEVELOP BY FRI MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH W TO E
FRI AFTN THRU FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. LIGHT WINDS UNDER 20KT ARE EXPECTED SAT AS THE HIGH PRES
RIDGE PASSES ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E AND A
LOW PRES TROF MOVES E ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...WINDS WILL THEN
INCREASE SAT NIGHT/SUN...PROBABLY REACHING 15-25KT OR MORE OVER AT
LEAST THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON SUN. THE TROF WILL CROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE W.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     MIZ001>005-009-010-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ266-267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...ROLFSON



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

 105 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF WAS MOVING TOWARD
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AT 08Z. MEANWHILE...AN INVERTED SFC TROF WAS
SETTING UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SEVERAL PIECES OF EMBEDDED ENERGY
WILL MOVE OUT FROM THE BASE OF THE TROF AND AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE DAY...EAST OF THE SFC TROF. ONE WAS MOVING THROUGH WI
ATTM AND GENERATING SHOWERS OVER A PORTION OF NW WI INTO NORTH
CENTRAL WI WITH ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS STAYING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA. THIS WAS OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF WAA HELPING TO KEEP THE PCPN
ALL LIQUID.

THE LONG WAVE TROF WILL CONTINUE ON ITS PATH TOWARD THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. MEANWHILE...A SFC LOW CENTER WILL MOVE FROM SW IA TO SW
WI. THIS WILL KEEP MAINLY THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE REGION ON
THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE LOW AND IN THE BEST POSITION TO HAVE SOME
PCPN OCCUR. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECE OF ENERGY EXITS...THE NEXT
ONE IS ALREADY MOVING INTO WESTERN IA AT 08Z. IT IS THIS PIECE OF
ENERGY THAT WILL BRING PCPN TO MUCH OF THE AREA. LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP AND LOCAL WRF POINT TO PRIMARILY RAIN.
HOWEVER...WITH SFC TEMPS HOVERING NEAR FREEZING...THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MAINLY OVER THE ARROWHEAD. SINCE THIS SYSTEM
IS FAIRLY WARM...SNOW AMOUNTS TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT. NO
FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY AS REFLECTED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND HAVE REMOVED.

TONIGHT...THE PCPN WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
AREA...FROM THE PERIPHERY OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH ALL OF NW WI. THE
PCPN WILL BE ALL LIQUID EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE MIXING WITH AND
THEN QUICKLY CHANGING TO SNOW OVER NW WI. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE
AMOUNT OF QPF...BUT HAVE LOWERED TO COME INTO LINE WITH THE LATEST
TRENDS. MODELS ALSO DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF FRONTOTGENETICAL
FORCING THAT WILL MOVE OVER NW WI. NONETHELESS...HAVE HIGHEST
POPS/QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS EAST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 63. COLDER AIR DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD BE AN EFFICIENT SNOW
PRODUCER. 1 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME
ISOLD HIGHER AMOUNTS. NO FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED AND HAVE REMOVED.

ON FRIDAY...THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADA WITH ONE MORE
UPPER TROF CROSSING THE REGION. BEST FORCING WILL OCCUR IN THE
MORNING...DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE ALIGNED THE POPS TO
REFLECT THIS TREND. THE PTYPE WILL BE LIGHT SNOW IN THE EARLY
MORNING CHANGING TO RAIN BY MID MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS
WITH DIURNAL HEATING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE THIS
WEEK AND EARLY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND
INITIALLY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS. AS THE SFC HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE
TRANSLATE EWD ON SATURDAY A STRONG RETURN FLOW FROM THE SW WILL
DEVELOP AND USHER IN A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS...WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY INTERACT WITH AN INCOMING S/W FROM THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
NRN ROCKIES LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. STRONG WAA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING WILL AID IN THE DESTABILIZATION OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER ENOUGH TO TRIGGER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SUN AND EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WARM RIDGE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO TUESDAY AND THE NEXT SYSTEM USHERS
IN ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
30S AND 40S. ANOTHER PERIOD OF PERSISTENT NE WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON THE COOL
SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

EXPECT LOW END MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AS LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
KINL SITE... WHICH HAS ALREADY ESCAPED THE CLOUD DECK AND WILL
REMAIN IN VFR TODAY. CIGS/VIS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THIS
EVENING... BEFORE A COLD FRONT FROM CANADA MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE NORTHLAND IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND LOWERS CIGS/VIS
AGAIN. EXPECT GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE
IMPROVEMENT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
BEFORE 12Z... WHICH WILL CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND BECOME GUSTY
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  41  32  48  30 /  70  20  20  10
INL  50  30  48  28 /  10  40  10   0
BRD  49  31  51  29 /  60  20  20  10
HYR  42  31  47  27 /  90  80  30  10
ASX  38  31  45  29 / 100  70  30  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...MCLOVIN






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS DULUTH MN

 627 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF WAS MOVING TOWARD
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AT 08Z. MEANWHILE...AN INVERTED SFC TROF WAS
SETTING UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SEVERAL PIECES OF EMBEDDED ENERGY
WILL MOVE OUT FROM THE BASE OF THE TROF AND AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE DAY...EAST OF THE SFC TROF. ONE WAS MOVING THROUGH WI
ATTM AND GENERATING SHOWERS OVER A PORTION OF NW WI INTO NORTH
CENTRAL WI WITH ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS STAYING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA. THIS WAS OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF WAA HELPING TO KEEP THE PCPN
ALL LIQUID.

THE LONG WAVE TROF WILL CONTINUE ON ITS PATH TOWARD THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. MEANWHILE...A SFC LOW CENTER WILL MOVE FROM SW IA TO SW
WI. THIS WILL KEEP MAINLY THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE REGION ON
THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE LOW AND IN THE BEST POSITION TO HAVE SOME
PCPN OCCUR. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECE OF ENERGY EXITS...THE NEXT
ONE IS ALREADY MOVING INTO WESTERN IA AT 08Z. IT IS THIS PIECE OF
ENERGY THAT WILL BRING PCPN TO MUCH OF THE AREA. LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP AND LOCAL WRF POINT TO PRIMARILY RAIN.
HOWEVER...WITH SFC TEMPS HOVERING NEAR FREEZING...THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MAINLY OVER THE ARROWHEAD. SINCE THIS SYSTEM
IS FAIRLY WARM...SNOW AMOUNTS TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT. NO
FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY AS REFLECTED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND HAVE REMOVED.

TONIGHT...THE PCPN WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
AREA...FROM THE PERIPHERY OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH ALL OF NW WI. THE
PCPN WILL BE ALL LIQUID EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE MIXING WITH AND
THEN QUICKLY CHANGING TO SNOW OVER NW WI. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE
AMOUNT OF QPF...BUT HAVE LOWERED TO COME INTO LINE WITH THE LATEST
TRENDS. MODELS ALSO DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF FRONTOTGENETICAL
FORCING THAT WILL MOVE OVER NW WI. NONETHELESS...HAVE HIGHEST
POPS/QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS EAST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 63. COLDER AIR DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD BE AN EFFICIENT SNOW
PRODUCER. 1 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME
ISOLD HIGHER AMOUNTS. NO FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED AND HAVE REMOVED.

ON FRIDAY...THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADA WITH ONE MORE
UPPER TROF CROSSING THE REGION. BEST FORCING WILL OCCUR IN THE
MORNING...DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE ALIGNED THE POPS TO
REFLECT THIS TREND. THE PTYPE WILL BE LIGHT SNOW IN THE EARLY
MORNING CHANGING TO RAIN BY MID MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS
WITH DIURNAL HEATING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE THIS
WEEK AND EARLY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND
INITIALLY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS. AS THE SFC HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE
TRANSLATE EWD ON SATURDAY A STRONG RETURN FLOW FROM THE SW WILL
DEVELOP AND USHER IN A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS...WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY INTERACT WITH AN INCOMING S/W FROM THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
NRN ROCKIES LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. STRONG WAA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING WILL AID IN THE DESTABILIZATION OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER ENOUGH TO TRIGGER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SUN AND EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WARM RIDGE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO TUESDAY AND THE NEXT SYSTEM USHERS
IN ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
30S AND 40S. ANOTHER PERIOD OF PERSISTENT NE WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON THE COOL
SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

LOW END MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY...WITH
SCATTERED LIFR CIGS ACROSS THE NRN TERMINALS THIS MORNING. RAIN
SHOWERS...WITH EMBEDDED FZDZ/IP/SN WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH
THIS MORNING AND SPREAD TO THE ENE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE HYR
TERMINAL WILL SEE THE MOST PRECIPITATION TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY RAIN THROUGH THE DAY AND A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FROM THE NW
TONIGHT...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR/MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT FOG
BEHIND THE FRONT. NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MOST OF TODAY WITH A
SHIFT TO THE NW TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  41  32  48  30 /  70  20  20  10
INL  50  30  48  28 /  10  40  10   0
BRD  49  31  51  29 /  60  20  20  10
HYR  42  31  47  27 /  90  80  30  10
ASX  38  31  45  29 / 100  70  30  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...BJT






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

 328 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF WAS MOVING TOWARD
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AT 08Z. MEANWHILE...AN INVERTED SFC TROF WAS
SETTING UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SEVERAL PIECES OF EMBEDDED ENERGY
WILL MOVE OUT FROM THE BASE OF THE TROF AND AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE DAY...EAST OF THE SFC TROF. ONE WAS MOVING THROUGH WI
ATTM AND GENERATING SHOWERS OVER A PORTION OF NW WI INTO NORTH
CENTRAL WI WITH ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS STAYING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA. THIS WAS OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF WAA HELPING TO KEEP THE PCPN
ALL LIQUID.

THE LONG WAVE TROF WILL CONTINUE ON ITS PATH TOWARD THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. MEANWHILE...A SFC LOW CENTER WILL MOVE FROM SW IA TO SW
WI. THIS WILL KEEP MAINLY THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE REGION ON
THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE LOW AND IN THE BEST POSITION TO HAVE SOME
PCPN OCCUR. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECE OF ENERGY EXITS...THE NEXT
ONE IS ALREADY MOVING INTO WESTERN IA AT 08Z. IT IS THIS PIECE OF
ENERGY THAT WILL BRING PCPN TO MUCH OF THE AREA. LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP AND LOCAL WRF POINT TO PRIMARILY RAIN.
HOWEVER...WITH SFC TEMPS HOVERING NEAR FREEZING...THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MAINLY OVER THE ARROWHEAD. SINCE THIS SYSTEM
IS FAIRLY WARM...SNOW AMOUNTS TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT. NO
FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY AS REFLECTED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND HAVE REMOVED.

TONIGHT...THE PCPN WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
AREA...FROM THE PERIPHERY OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH ALL OF NW WI. THE
PCPN WILL BE ALL LIQUID EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE MIXING WITH AND
THEN QUICKLY CHANGING TO SNOW OVER NW WI. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE
AMOUNT OF QPF...BUT HAVE LOWERED TO COME INTO LINE WITH THE LATEST
TRENDS. MODELS ALSO DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF FRONTOTGENETICAL
FORCING THAT WILL MOVE OVER NW WI. NONETHELESS...HAVE HIGHEST
POPS/QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS EAST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 63. COLDER AIR DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD BE AN EFFICIENT SNOW
PRODUCER. 1 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME
ISOLD HIGHER AMOUNTS. NO FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED AND HAVE REMOVED.

ON FRIDAY...THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADA WITH ONE MORE
UPPER TROF CROSSING THE REGION. BEST FORCING WILL OCCUR IN THE
MORNING...DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE ALIGNED THE POPS TO
REFLECT THIS TREND. THE PTYPE WILL BE LIGHT SNOW IN THE EARLY
MORNING CHANGING TO RAIN BY MID MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS
WITH DIURNAL HEATING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE THIS
WEEK AND EARLY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND
INITIALLY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS. AS THE SFC HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE
TRANSLATE EWD ON SATURDAY A STRONG RETURN FLOW FROM THE SW WILL
DEVELOP AND USHER IN A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS...WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY INTERACT WITH AN INCOMING S/W FROM THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
NRN ROCKIES LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. STRONG WAA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING WILL AID IN THE DESTABILIZATION OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER ENOUGH TO TRIGGER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SUN AND EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WARM RIDGE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO TUESDAY AND THE NEXT SYSTEM USHERS
IN ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
30S AND 40S. ANOTHER PERIOD OF PERSISTENT NE WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON THE COOL
SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED IN THE WESTERN KS/EASTERN CO REGION LATE
THIS EVENING AND IS FORECAST TO LIFT INTO IOWA THURSDAY MORNING. WAA
AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL AID IN DEVELOPING PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WERE ALREADY MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND WE EXPECT COVERAGE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. A
WINTRY MIX WILL OCCUR OVER FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...WITH MAINLY RAIN AT KHYR UNTIL LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...THEN
SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR OVER WESTERN TAF SITES...AND GRADUALLY MOVE
EAST TO KHIB/KDLH. ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH THURSDAY
NIGHT AND BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS WITH IT. WE ADDED A VCSH AT KINL
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY AT KDLH. WE
EXPECTED LOWER VSBYS TO OCCUR BY NOW BUT HAVE YET TO SEE THAT. WE
WILL DELAY THE LOWER VSBYS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  41  32  48  30 /  70  20  20  10
INL  50  30  48  28 /  10  40  10   0
BRD  49  31  51  29 /  60  20  20  10
HYR  42  31  47  27 /  90  80  30  10
ASX  38  31  45  29 / 100  70  30  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...MELDE






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS BILLINGS MT

 916 AM MDT THU APR 9 2015

.UPDATE...

MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS FOR THE WEAK ECHOS ACROSS GLASGOW/S
AREA...BUT KEPT POPS NO HIGHER THAN 14 GIVEN THAT THE HRRR DOES
NOT HANG ON TO PRECIP VERY LONG. REIMER

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...

WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE OVER TODAY AS THE SYSTEM THAT
IMPACTED THE SOUTHEAST MOVES AWAY. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING COULD
ALLOW FOR FOG FORMATION...SO WILL LET THAT PART OF THE FORECAST
RIDE FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY. WEAK CIRCULATION OVER NORTHERN
IDAHO WILL SWING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE PERIOD. THE MAIN PART
OF THE TROUGH HOUSING THE WEAK ENERGY OF TODAY IS PROGGED TO PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. ENOUGH WEAK INSTABILITY TO MENTION SHOWER
CHANCES OVER THE WEST. LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

GENERALLY FEW CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
GREATEST CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD CONTINUING TO BE IMPRESSIVE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST.

UNTIL THEN...THE PATTERN REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AND
PROGRESSIVE. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT. SATURDAY
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...IN PREFRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT...WITH TEMPS AROUND 70. EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT...BUT NOTHING INDICATING WIDESPREAD PRECIP.
DRY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR
SUNDAY. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THESE DAYS FOR ANY FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY AT TIMES AND
RH VALUES LOOK LIKE WILL BE BACK IN TEENS.

DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY...AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROF...DEVELOPING
ALONG THE WEST COAST. THERE ARE A FEW DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS...WITH ECMWF BRINGING A WAVE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROF...WHILE GFS REMAINS DRY. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT
POPS IN PLACE THROUGH THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MAY MAINLY SERVE TO
RECHARGE ATMOSPHERE AFTER FEW DAYS OF DRYING OUT. MODEL COME BACK
TOGETHER A BIT BETTER BY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION. TRACK...SPEED...PRECIP
AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...SO HAVE KEPT HIGH POPS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS ARE ALSO UNCERTAIN DUE TO POTENTIAL
CHANGES IN TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...SO WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY AT ALL TERMINALS. THE THREAT
OF FOG OVER THE EASTERN TERMINALS HAS DIMINISHED. LATER TODAY
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWER...SO MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION RULES MAY APPLY. SINGER



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 057 036/065 040/069 040/061 033/064 039/060 038/052
    0/B 01/B    02/W    31/N    11/B    33/W    45/W
LVM 055 033/061 037/063 034/056 030/059 035/058 034/049
    1/B 13/W    03/W    31/N    12/W    33/W    55/W
HDN 059 031/067 035/071 038/062 031/066 036/065 034/053
    0/B 01/B    02/W    31/N    11/B    33/W    45/W
MLS 057 032/065 037/070 039/061 032/065 038/065 038/053
    1/B 00/U    02/W    31/N    11/B    22/W    45/W
4BQ 053 029/064 035/070 038/060 031/066 037/067 036/054
    0/B 00/B    01/U    31/B    11/B    32/W    45/W
BHK 053 028/062 033/068 037/059 030/064 036/067 035/056
    1/B 00/U    01/U    21/N    11/B    22/W    45/W
SHR 052 027/061 033/066 036/058 031/064 035/064 034/051
    0/B 00/B    01/B    31/B    11/B    33/W    45/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

 957 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2015

JUST PUBLISHED A RATHER "COSMETIC" UPDATE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS (THROUGH 12Z/7AM)...WITH VERY LITTLE NOTICEABLE
CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR THE MOST PART...THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD FEATURE NO WORSE THAN MOSTLY CLEAR-PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES UNDER PRIMARILY PASSING THIN HIGH CLOUDS. BREEZES
WILL AVERAGE 5-10 MPH FROM THE SOUTH...AS OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP NO LOWER THAN THE 39-44 RANGE FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA. REALLY THE ONLY POSSIBLE "CAVEAT" THROUGH SUNRISE
INVOLVES WHETHER OR NOT SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD
POSSIBLY BRUSH INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST EDGES OF THE CWA (NAMELY THE
ROOKS COUNTY KS AREA) SOMETIME AFTER 4 AM OR SO. WHILE THIS IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION...DID NOT FEEL THERE WAS ENOUGH EVIDENCE IN
THE LATEST MODEL DATA (INCLUDING RAP 13/HRRR) TO "RUIN" THE
CURRENTLY-DRY OVERNIGHT FORECAST...AS CERTAINLY THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR SPOTTY RAIN LATE SHOULD FOCUS AT LEAST SLIGHTLY WEST
AND/OR SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA.

MADE NO CHANGES TO THE POST-SUNRISE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT IT
STILL APPEARS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD GET THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS DRY...WITH ANY LIMITED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL PRIMARILY FOCUSED WITHIN SOUTHERN AND/OR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2015

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A FEW CIRRUS IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE SOUTH
DURING THE NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. WITH THE SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE. WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE THERE WILL BE
AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY. MUCAPE INCREASES TO NEARLY 1500 J/KG IN
THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA. HAVE BACKED OFF A LITTLE BRINGING
THE PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. HAVE KEPT A LITTLE IN
THE FAR SOUTH IN THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT THAT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2015

UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NO WIDESPREAD RAINS ON THE HORIZON...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST DUE
TO LOW HUMIDITIES AND STRONG WINDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE...EVEN ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MOST DAYS IN THE PERIOD. THE NORMAL IS 60 TO 65 FOR HIGH TEMPS
AND AROUND FREEZING FOR LOW TEMPS.

PATTERN-WISE...A ZONAL FLOW RETURNS WITH PERIODIC WAVES MOVING
THROUGH. THE NORMAL RESULTING WEATHER WITH THIS TYPE PATTERN IS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER...ALTHOUGH PERIODIC
WAVES BRING FRONTS THROUGH THAT ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUS
A FEW PLACES MAY GET SOME RAIN ON AND OFF.

MODELS...THE EUROPEAN AND GFS ARE IN PHASE THE FIRST FEW DAYS...BUT
AFTER WEDNESDAY THE GFS DEVELOPS SYSTEMS FASTER. PREFER THE TIMING
OF THE SLOWER EUROPEAN BASED ON EXPERIENCE AND PATTERN RECOGNITION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A SUBTLE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER MAY BE NOTED DURING THE TAF
PERIOD...BUT NOTHING BELOW 15000FT AGL IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THE
SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE MOST PART DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SUSTAINED AT AROUND 08KTS TONIGHT...BUT
INCREASING TO AROUND 16KTS AND GUSTING TO AROUND 25KTS DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...EDDY
AVIATION...BRYANT



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

 100 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE RAP MODEL AND HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE RAIN SNOW LINE ADVANCING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. SNOW IS UNDERWAY FROM HEMINGFORD TO
SCOTTSBLUFF TO HARRISBURG IN BANNER COUNTY. THE RAP AND SFC
OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE RAIN TO SNOW CHANGING OVER WHEN H700MB
TEMPERATURES REACH -6C OR COLDER AND THE MODEL FORECAST IS FOR -8C
ACROSS ALL OF THE FCST AREA. THIS SUGGESTS A RAIN SNOW MIX WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA AND ALL SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF
NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2. THE RAP ALSO SHOWS AROUND 0.25 INCHES OF
RAINFALL THIS MORNING WHICH COULD PRODUCE AROUND 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN
THE SANDHILLS.

THE SATELLITE WATER VAPOR AND RAP40 ANALYZE A DEFORMATION ZONE
UNDERWAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD
MOVE DUE EAST AND BE LOCATED EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 BY 18Z LENDING
CLARITY TO THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST. THE RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD EXIT
THE FCST AREA AROUND 21Z WITH CLEARING SKIES MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AT THE SAME TIME.

THE RAP SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S WHICH WAS MARKED UP TO UPPER
40S TO NEAR 50 IN SOME AREAS. THE WRN SANDHILLS WILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S AS PROGGED BY THE RAP. H850MB
WINDS INCREASE TO 40 KTS FOR NORTH WINDS 25 TO 30 MPH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

RETURN FLOW AIDED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE SIDE TROUGH ON FRIDAY
WILL ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COAST NORTHWARD ONTO THE HIGH
PLAINS.  AS THE MOISTURE INCREASES...THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A WEAK
ATMOSPHERIC DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS LATE FRIDAY
EVENING AND SATURDAY MORNING.  WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE THETA-E
GRADIENT WILL LIFT MOIST AIR INTO AN ELEVATED UNSTABLE
LAYER...RESULTING IN ISOLATED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND EARLY
SATURDAY.  THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PEG NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS AS THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR
ISOLATED STORMS...HOWEVER A DRY LAYER ROOTED IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF ANY POTENTIAL STORMS.

WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER SATURDAY INTO
EARLY SUNDAY AS RETURN FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOIST AIR NORTH ATOP
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF STORMS/MOISTURE
DIFFER...BUT THE MODELS ALL GENERALLY AGREE IN SUGGESTING WEAK FORCING
FROM A PASSING DISTURBANCE WITH AN INCREASING LLJ.  WILL GENERALLY
FAVOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WHERE THE
RICHER MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED.  MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE IN
PLACE...BUT 40KTS OF BULK SHEAR WOULD WORK WITH UP TO 1000J OF
MUCAPE TO PROMOTE THE POSSIBILITY OF NEAR SEVERE STORMS. A FRONT
CLEARS THE THE CWA EARLY ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY
AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

BEYOND MONDAY ATTENTION TURNS TO A CLOSED SOUTHERN PLAINS MID LEVEL
LOW WHICH IS SHOWN TO EVENTUALLY BE DRAWN NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEST COAST TROUGH.  THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH
THE HANDLING OF THIS CYCLONE AND THE EVENTUAL INTERACTION WITH THE
TROUGH.  SO DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE INIT AT THIS
TIME DUE TO THE INCONSISTENCIES OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS.  BECAUSE
OF THIS...WE/RE LEFT WITH CONTINUOUS POPS EACH PERIOD SOMEWHERE
WITHIN THE CWA BEGINNING TUESDAY MORNING.  AT THIS TIME THE
GREATEST CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD POPS APPEAR TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
SPREAD EAST ONTO THE PLAINS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED LARGELY LOOK TO RETURN NEAR OR
ABOVE AVERAGE...HOWEVER A POTENTIAL COLD FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK COULD
COOL TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

SNOW CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA. SNOW HAS ALREADY ENDED AT
KVTN HOWEVER A LINGERING BRIEF LOW MVFR CIG IS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER
HOUR OR TWO WITH LIGHT SNOW AT KLBF. ALL SNOW SHOULD EXIT N
CENTRAL BY LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE CLEARING SKIES WILL SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS AFTERNOON NW WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...GUSTING TO 20 TO 30 KTS...HOWEVER DECOUPLING WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z
TOMORROW.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...MASEK






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

 619 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE RAP MODEL AND HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE RAIN SNOW LINE ADVANCING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. SNOW IS UNDERWAY FROM HEMINGFORD TO
SCOTTSBLUFF TO HARRISBURG IN BANNER COUNTY. THE RAP AND SFC
OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE RAIN TO SNOW CHANGING OVER WHEN H700MB
TEMPERATURES REACH -6C OR COLDER AND THE MODEL FORECAST IS FOR -8C
ACROSS ALL OF THE FCST AREA. THIS SUGGESTS A RAIN SNOW MIX WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA AND ALL SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF
NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2. THE RAP ALSO SHOWS AROUND 0.25 INCHES OF
RAINFALL THIS MORNING WHICH COULD PRODUCE AROUND 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN
THE SANDHILLS.

THE SATELLITE WATER VAPOR AND RAP40 ANALYZE A DEFORMATION ZONE
UNDERWAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD
MOVE DUE EAST AND BE LOCATED EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 BY 18Z LENDING
CLARITY TO THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST. THE RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD EXIT
THE FCST AREA AROUND 21Z WITH CLEARING SKIES MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AT THE SAME TIME.

THE RAP SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S WHICH WAS MARKED UP TO UPPER
40S TO NEAR 50 IN SOME AREAS. THE WRN SANDHILLS WILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S AS PROGGED BY THE RAP. H850MB
WINDS INCREASE TO 40 KTS FOR NORTH WINDS 25 TO 30 MPH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

RETURN FLOW AIDED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE SIDE TROUGH ON FRIDAY
WILL ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COAST NORTHWARD ONTO THE HIGH
PLAINS.  AS THE MOISTURE INCREASES...THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A WEAK
ATMOSPHERIC DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS LATE FRIDAY
EVENING AND SATURDAY MORNING.  WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE THETA-E
GRADIENT WILL LIFT MOIST AIR INTO AN ELEVATED UNSTABLE
LAYER...RESULTING IN ISOLATED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND EARLY
SATURDAY.  THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PEG NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS AS THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR
ISOLATED STORMS...HOWEVER A DRY LAYER ROOTED IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF ANY POTENTIAL STORMS.

WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER SATURDAY INTO
EARLY SUNDAY AS RETURN FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOIST AIR NORTH ATOP
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF STORMS/MOISTURE
DIFFER...BUT THE MODELS ALL GENERALLY AGREE IN SUGGESTING WEAK FORCING
FROM A PASSING DISTURBANCE WITH AN INCREASING LLJ.  WILL GENERALLY
FAVOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WHERE THE
RICHER MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED.  MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE IN
PLACE...BUT 40KTS OF BULK SHEAR WOULD WORK WITH UP TO 1000J OF
MUCAPE TO PROMOTE THE POSSIBILITY OF NEAR SEVERE STORMS. A FRONT
CLEARS THE THE CWA EARLY ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY
AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

BEYOND MONDAY ATTENTION TURNS TO A CLOSED SOUTHERN PLAINS MID LEVEL
LOW WHICH IS SHOWN TO EVENTUALLY BE DRAWN NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEST COAST TROUGH.  THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH
THE HANDLING OF THIS CYCLONE AND THE EVENTUAL INTERACTION WITH THE
TROUGH.  SO DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE INIT AT THIS
TIME DUE TO THE INCONSISTENCIES OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS.  BECAUSE
OF THIS...WE/RE LEFT WITH CONTINUOUS POPS EACH PERIOD SOMEWHERE
WITHIN THE CWA BEGINNING TUESDAY MORNING.  AT THIS TIME THE
GREATEST CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD POPS APPEAR TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
SPREAD EAST ONTO THE PLAINS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED LARGELY LOOK TO RETURN NEAR OR
ABOVE AVERAGE...HOWEVER A POTENTIAL COLD FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK COULD
COOL TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

IFR CIGS AND VSBY IN RASN COVERING WRN AND NCNTL NEB ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE MARKEDLY AS EARLY AS 18Z WITH VFR/MVFR CIGS SPREADING
EAST THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN. VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS
FROM 00Z ONWARD THIS EVENING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

 343 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE RAP MODEL AND HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE RAIN SNOW LINE ADVANCING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. SNOW IS UNDERWAY FROM HEMINGFORD TO
SCOTTSBLUFF TO HARRISBURG IN BANNER COUNTY. THE RAP AND SFC
OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE RAIN TO SNOW CHANGING OVER WHEN H700MB
TEMPERATURES REACH -6C OR COLDER AND THE MODEL FORECAST IS FOR -8C
ACROSS ALL OF THE FCST AREA. THIS SUGGESTS A RAIN SNOW MIX WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA AND ALL SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF
NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2. THE RAP ALSO SHOWS AROUND 0.25 INCHES OF
RAINFALL THIS MORNING WHICH COULD PRODUCE AROUND 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN
THE SANDHILLS.

THE SATELLITE WATER VAPOR AND RAP40 ANALYZE A DEFORMATION ZONE
UNDERWAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD
MOVE DUE EAST AND BE LOCATED EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 BY 18Z LENDING
CLARITY TO THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST. THE RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD EXIT
THE FCST AREA AROUND 21Z WITH CLEARING SKIES MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AT THE SAME TIME.

THE RAP SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S WHICH WAS MARKED UP TO UPPER
40S TO NEAR 50 IN SOME AREAS. THE WRN SANDHILLS WILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S AS PROGGED BY THE RAP. H850MB
WINDS INCREASE TO 40 KTS FOR NORTH WINDS 25 TO 30 MPH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

RETURN FLOW AIDED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE SIDE TROUGH ON FRIDAY
WILL ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COAST NORTHWARD ONTO THE HIGH
PLAINS.  AS THE MOISTURE INCREASES...THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A WEAK
ATMOSPHERIC DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS LATE FRIDAY
EVENING AND SATURDAY MORNING.  WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE THETA-E
GRADIENT WILL LIFT MOIST AIR INTO AN ELEVATED UNSTABLE
LAYER...RESULTING IN ISOLATED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND EARLY
SATURDAY.  THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PEG NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS AS THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR
ISOLATED STORMS...HOWEVER A DRY LAYER ROOTED IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF ANY POTENTIAL STORMS.

WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER SATURDAY INTO
EARLY SUNDAY AS RETURN FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOIST AIR NORTH ATOP
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF STORMS/MOISTURE
DIFFER...BUT THE MODELS ALL GENERALLY AGREE IN SUGGESTING WEAK FORCING
FROM A PASSING DISTURBANCE WITH AN INCREASING LLJ.  WILL GENERALLY
FAVOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WHERE THE
RICHER MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED.  MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE IN
PLACE...BUT 40KTS OF BULK SHEAR WOULD WORK WITH UP TO 1000J OF
MUCAPE TO PROMOTE THE POSSIBILITY OF NEAR SEVERE STORMS. A FRONT
CLEARS THE THE CWA EARLY ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY
AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

BEYOND MONDAY ATTENTION TURNS TO A CLOSED SOUTHERN PLAINS MID LEVEL
LOW WHICH IS SHOWN TO EVENTUALLY BE DRAWN NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEST COAST TROUGH.  THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH
THE HANDLING OF THIS CYCLONE AND THE EVENTUAL INTERACTION WITH THE
TROUGH.  SO DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE INIT AT THIS
TIME DUE TO THE INCONSISTENCIES OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS.  BECAUSE
OF THIS...WE/RE LEFT WITH CONTINUOUS POPS EACH PERIOD SOMEWHERE
WITHIN THE CWA BEGINNING TUESDAY MORNING.  AT THIS TIME THE
GREATEST CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD POPS APPEAR TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
SPREAD EAST ONTO THE PLAINS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED LARGELY LOOK TO RETURN NEAR OR
ABOVE AVERAGE...HOWEVER A POTENTIAL COLD FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK COULD
COOL TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015

IFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST UNTIL 16Z AT KLBF AND KVTN. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY BRINGING RA TO KLBF. COLDER AIR MOVING IN TO BRING A MIX
OF RASN OR A POSSIBLE CHANGEOVER TO SN TO KVTN FROM 10Z-15Z.
WINDS 34015G25KT WILL OCCUR AFTER 12Z WITH CEILINGS IMPROVING TO
MVFR BY 16Z AND THEN VFR BY 20Z FOR BOTH TERMINALS.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...ROBERG












AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

 1133 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE IN REGARDS TO CONVECTION TONIGHT
AND ALSO SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.

SOME STORMS DID OCCUR WITH SMALL HAIL FROM NORTH OF LINCOLN TOWARD
OMAHA EARLY THIS MORNING. STORMS REALLY DID NOT GET GOING STRONG TO
SEVERE UNTIL THEY WERE IN THE DMX FORECAST AREA. 500 MB CHART FROM
12Z SHOWED MAIN TROUGH STILL WELL OFF TO THE WEST. HEIGHT FALLS UP
TO AROUND 100 METERS WERE BACK OVER UTAH AT 12Z...BUT AS OF EARLY
AFTERNOON HAD PUSHED INTO PARTS OF WYOMING AND COLORADO.

GENERALLY EXPECT PCPN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT...WITH
HEAVIEST PCPN AFTER ABOUT 11 PM. RECENT HRRR MODEL RUNS SUGGEST SOME
STRONG STORMS MAY FORM EARLY EVENING NEAR THE MISSOURI BORDER AREA.

OTHERWISE...MODELS TRENDS SHOWED LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD INCREASE
WITH UP TO 50 KNOTS AT 850 MB BY LATE EVENING. THIS SHOULD HELP
BRING AN INCREASE IN TSTMS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA BY MIDNIGHT OR
SO. 12Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWED UP TO AROUND 2000 J/KG OR
MORE OF ELEVATED CAPE AVAILABLE WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR ADEQUATE
FOR ROTATING ELEVATED STORMS. THESE SHOULD BRING A RISK OF HAIL
MAINLY FROM 05Z TO 10Z...AND A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. THERE
COULD ALSO BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH
HEAVIEST RAIN AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA NEAR DEFORMATION ZONE. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AS SURFACE
LOW TRACKS EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS IOWA DURING THE DAY AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN OUR AREA INCREASES. SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH OR MORE SHOULD BE COMMON. DROPPED
FORECAST HIGHS JUST A BIT...WITH MOSTLY 50S EXPECTED THURSDAY.

PCPN WILL END BY THURSDAY EVENING WITH CLOUDS DECREASING THURSDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT...
MOSTLY TO OUR WEST...SO NO PCPN IS EXPECTED LOCALLY FRIDAY NIGHT.
WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE TSTMS FOR MAINLY OUR WESTERN ZONES
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015

WILL NEED TO INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHEST CHANCES AND HEAVIEST AMOUNTS
LIKELY AS SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S THIS PERIOD...BUT
SOME UPPER 60S POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. LOWS GENERALLY 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015

IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS A VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL
LAYER REMAINS OVER THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. DID NOT INCLUDE A MENTION OF THUNDER...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND AMEND AS NECESSARY. WINDS WILL TURN
TO THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. GUSTS UP TO 35KTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY MORNING
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SKIES AND VISIBILITIES MAY BEGIN TO
SCATTER OUT QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET...PERHAPS BECOMING CLEAR BY THE
END OF THE TAF CYCLE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...KERN




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

 1038 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS LINGERING INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW AND BUILD INTO THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWING INTO THE MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM FRIDAY...SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AS CONVECTION MOVES INTO A RELATIVELY STABLE AND DRY
ATMOSPHERE. HAVE FURTHER RATCHETED BACK ON TIMING...COVERAGE AND
STRENGTH OF OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH THE ODD THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WE ARE NOW EXPECTING MORE IN THE WAY OF
LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:

BASED ON LATEST TRENDS HAVE FURTHER DELAYED TIMING OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PROGRESSION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED
LIGHT ACTIVITY IS ONLY NOW MAKING ITS WAY INTO OUR FAR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AND DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE ANYTHING MAKE
IT TO THE COAST BEFORE ABOUT MIDNIGHT. DEWPOINTS ARE ON THE LOW
SIDE AND MUCH OF THE CWA IS NOW WITHIN THE MORE STABLE SECTOR OF
THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION SO CONFIDENCE IN THE SEVERE THREAT IS
LOWER THAN EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.LATEST HRRR KEEPS BULK OF
ACTIVITY WELL INLAND. HAVE MADE APPROPRIATE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WITH ALL THIS IN MIND. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

BETWEEN THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF THE SEA BREEZE AN THE SLOWER
THAN EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT FORCED CONVECTION THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS DIMINISHED. SAT IMAGERY SHOWS MINIMAL
DEVELOPMENT IN CU FIELDS DESPITE THE WARM AND HUMID AFTERNOON.
SIMILARLY THE ISOLATED ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST MAY HAVE TROUBLE
SURVIVING INTO OUR REGION DUE TO THE DRYNESS INDICATED IN THE LCL-
LFC LAYER. BUT JUST IN CASE HAVE BEEN CARRYING LOW POPS OVER
WESTERN ZONES BEGINNING AROUND 21Z. THIS IS A BIT QUICKER THAN THE
WRF BUT SLOWER THAN THE NOW OUTLYING GFS. THE MOST UNCERTAINTY HAS
COME THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE HIGH RES MODELS SUCH AS THE RUC AND
THE HRRR. SUCH GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN ANY AND ALL
PREFRONTAL PRECIPITATION DETERIORATE COMPLETE. TAKE THE HRRR FOR
EXAMPLE...NOT A DROP OF RAIN UNTIL SOME FAIRLY BENIGN LOOKING
SHALLOW CONVECTION ENTERS OUR AREA...AT 04Z! CURRENT FORECAST IS
NOT SO BOLDLY DRY BUT JUST RECENTLY NOTICED THAT THE PREFRONTAL
TROUGH DEPICTED ON THE WRF IS MUCH TOO STRONG COMPARED TO REALITY.
SO THE TREND STARTED THIS MORNING OF SLOWING DOWN TIMING MAY VERY
WELL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH JUST A SLOW RAMPING UP OF POPS
FROM NW TO SE...BUT THE BULK OF THE RAIN COMING LATE OVERNIGHT AND
GENERALLY SHALLOW CONVECTION WITH JUST ISOLATED THUNDER. THE
REMAINING SEVERE THREAT IS OVER FAR INLAND ZONES WITH ANY
PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP OR ADVECT IN FROM THE
WEST...REPRESENTING A LOW END DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST OFF
THE COAST BY 12 UTC WITH LINGERING EARLY MORNING SHOWERS.
AFTER THE PRECIPITATION CLEARS SATURDAY MORNING...DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN THE 74 TO
78 DEGREE RANGE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30% RANGE LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...WETTISH EXTENDED PERIOD AS UPSTREAM UPPER
TROUGHING ALLOWS GULF MOISTURE TAPS TO EJECT NE INTO THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FIRST IMPULSE GUIDED FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA STREAMS NE IN AN ELEVATED PRECIPITABLE WATER
PLUME AS HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS FROM THE NORTH TO INSTIGATE AN
EARLY SPRING OVER-RUNNING WEDGE PATTERN INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH EDGES EAST OVER THE  VALLEY
OVERSPREADING GULF VAPOR CONTENT THURSDAY AS THE WEDGE ERODES IN
WET  AND ISENTROPIC OMEGA. EXTENDED PERIOD CULMINATES INTO
A RAINY FRIDAY AS THE AMPED UPPER TROUGH FORCES A COLD FRONT
ACROSS FORECAST AREA DAY 7. WPC QPF DEPICTIONS FOR DAYS 4-5 AND
6-7 YIELD BASIN AVERAGE COLLECTIVE RAIN TOTALS OF 1-2.5 INCHES.
PLENTIFUL CLOUDS IN BALMY SW FLOW ALOFT AND WEDGE PATTERN THIS
PERIOD RESULTS IN MAXIMUMS PRIMARILY 70S...MINIMUMS UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...SO FAR...IT LOOKS LIKE A BIG DISAPPOINTMENT WITH
REGARD TO CONVECTION. THE CONVECTION IS FAIRLY STRONG IN
COLUMBIA`S CWA...BUT THAT WAS WHERE THE MAX CAPE RESIDED. WE STILL
HAVE SOME WARM AIR ALOFT THAT IS TAMPERING THINGS. NEVERTHELESS
WILL KEEP SOME CONVECTION IN THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT WILL SLOW
THINGS DOWN AND WILL TAKE OUT THE HEAVY GUSTS. LBT AND FLO STAND
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT THINK IT WILL BE FLEETING.

SATURDAY MORNING...SOME IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT DROPS
IN...WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST...POST FRONTAL BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD IN A PRE-FRONTAL
FLOW REGIME. THE APPROACH OF THE BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT WILL
TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT LEADING TO A SMALL INCREASE IN WINDS
AND SEAS. WHILE THIS MAY INTRODUCE 5 FT SEAS ALONG THE OUTER
PORTIONS OF SOME OF THE FORECAST ZONES THE LARGE COAST- PARALLEL
COMPONENT SHOULD SPONSOR ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT IN NEARSHORE VS
OFFSHORE WAVES TO PRECLUDE A SCEC.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BE SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THEN NORTHEAST TO EAST
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS
EARLY IN THE MORNING BEFORE DROPPING DOWN TO 15 KNOTS BY THE
EVENING. ON SUNDAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND WINDS ARE
EXPECT TO PEAK AGAIN AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
DROPPING BACK TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE
RUNNING AROUND 3 TO 5 FEET SATURDAY MORNING WITH A FALL TO 2 TO 4
FEET SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW. WITH THE NORTHEAST
FLOW INCREASING THE SEAS WILL INCREASE BACK TO 3 TO 4 FEET ON
SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...A BUMPY MARINE ENVIRONMENT MON-WED AS A
MODERATE ONSHORE WIND FLOW KEEPS SEAS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...AND
OVERALL 3-5 FEET. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY PLAGUE THE WATERS
WITH RAIN AND OCCASIONAL REDUCED VISIBILITY AND ISOLATED TSTMS
AS GULF MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES SPREAD NE OVER THE 0-20 NM
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
FOR 6 FOOT SEAS OFFSHORE...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND
INTERACTS WITH AN OFFSHORE COASTAL TROUGH.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DRH
NEAR TERM...REK/MBB
SHORT TERM...DRH
LONG TERM...MJC
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/DRH




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

 738 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS LINGERING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW AND BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
THE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING INTO THE
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM FRIDAY...BASED ON LATEST TRENDS HAVE FURTHER DELAYED
TIMING OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PROGRESSION ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. ISOLATED LIGHT ACTIVITY IS ONLY NOW MAKING ITS WAY INTO OUR
FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AND DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE ANYTHING
MAKE IT TO THE COAST BEFORE ABOUT MIDNIGHT. DEWPOINTS ARE ON THE
LOW SIDE AND MUCH OF THE CWA IS NOW WITHIN THE MORE STABLE SECTOR
OF THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION SO CONFIDENCE IN THE SEVERE THREAT
IS LOWER THAN EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.LATEST HRRR KEEPS BULK OF
ACTIVITY WELL INLAND. HAVE MADE APPROPRIATE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WITH ALL THIS IN MIND. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

BETWEEN THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF THE SEA BREEZE AN THE SLOWER
THAN EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT FORCED CONVECTION THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS DIMINISHED. SAT IMAGERY SHOWS MINIMAL
DEVELOPMENT IN CU FIELDS DESPITE THE WARM AND HUMID AFTERNOON.
SIMILARLY THE ISOLATED ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST MAY HAVE TROUBLE
SURVIVING INTO OUR REGION DUE TO THE DRYNESS INDICATED IN THE LCL-
LFC LAYER. BUT JUST IN CASE HAVE BEEN CARRYING LOW POPS OVER
WESTERN ZONES BEGINNING AROUND 21Z. THIS IS A BIT QUICKER THAN THE
WRF BUT SLOWER THAN THE NOW OUTLYING GFS. THE MOST UNCERTAINTY HAS
COME THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE HIGH RES MODELS SUCH AS THE RUC AND
THE HRRR. SUCH GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN ANY AND ALL
PREFRONTAL PRECIPITATION DETERIORATE COMPLETE. TAKE THE HRRR FOR
EXAMPLE...NOT A DROP OF RAIN UNTIL SOME FAIRLY BENIGN LOOKING
SHALLOW CONVECTION ENTERS OUR AREA...AT 04Z! CURRENT FORECAST IS
NOT SO BOLDLY DRY BUT JUST RECENTLY NOTICED THAT THE PREFRONTAL
TROUGH DEPICTED ON THE WRF IS MUCH TOO STRONG COMPARED TO REALITY.
SO THE TREND STARTED THIS MORNING OF SLOWING DOWN TIMING MAY VERY
WELL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH JUST A SLOW RAMPING UP OF POPS
FROM NW TO SE...BUT THE BULK OF THE RAIN COMING LATE OVERNIGHT AND
GENERALLY SHALLOW CONVECTION WITH JUST ISOLATED THUNDER. THE
REMAINING SEVERE THREAT IS OVER FAR INLAND ZONES WITH ANY
PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP OR ADVECT IN FROM THE
WEST...REPRESENTING A LOW END DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST OFF
THE COAST BY 12 UTC WITH LINGERING EARLY MORNING SHOWERS.
AFTER THE PRECIPITATION CLEARS SATURDAY MORNING...DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN THE 74 TO
78 DEGREE RANGE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30% RANGE LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...WETTISH EXTENDED PERIOD AS UPSTREAM UPPER
TROUGHING ALLOWS GULF MOISTURE TAPS TO EJECT NE INTO THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FIRST IMPULSE GUIDED FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA STREAMS NE IN AN ELEVATED PRECIPITABLE WATER
PLUME AS HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS FROM THE NORTH TO INSTIGATE AN
EARLY SPRING OVER-RUNNING WEDGE PATTERN INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH EDGES EAST OVER THE  VALLEY
OVERSPREADING GULF VAPOR CONTENT THURSDAY AS THE WEDGE ERODES IN
WET  AND ISENTROPIC OMEGA. EXTENDED PERIOD CULMINATES INTO
A RAINY FRIDAY AS THE AMPED UPPER TROUGH FORCES A COLD FRONT
ACROSS FORECAST AREA DAY 7. WPC QPF DEPICTIONS FOR DAYS 4-5 AND
6-7 YIELD BASIN AVERAGE COLLECTIVE RAIN TOTALS OF 1-2.5 INCHES.
PLENTIFUL CLOUDS IN BALMY SW FLOW ALOFT AND WEDGE PATTERN THIS
PERIOD RESULTS IN MAXIMUMS PRIMARILY 70S...MINIMUMS UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...SO FAR...IT LOOKS LIKE A BIG DISAPPOINTMENT WITH
REGARD TO CONVECTION. THE CONVECTION IS FAIRLY STRONG IN
COLUMBIA`S CWA...BUT THAT WAS WHERE THE MAX CAPE RESIDED. WE STILL
HAVE SOME WARM AIR ALOFT THAT IS TAMPERING THINGS. NEVERTHELESS
WILL KEEP SOME CONVECTION IN THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT WILL SLOW
THINGS DOWN AND WILL TAKE OUT THE HEAVY GUSTS. LBT AND FLO STAND
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT THINK IT WILL BE FLEETING.

SATURDAY MORNING...SOME IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT DROPS
IN...WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST...POST FRONTAL BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD IN A PRE-FRONTAL
FLOW REGIME. THE APPROACH OF THE BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT WILL
TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT LEADING TO A SMALL INCREASE IN WINDS
AND SEAS. WHILE THIS MAY INTRODUCE 5 FT SEAS ALONG THE OUTER
PORTIONS OF SOME OF THE FORECAST ZONES THE LARGE COAST- PARALLEL
COMPONENT SHOULD SPONSOR ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT IN NEARSHORE VS
OFFSHORE WAVES TO PRECLUDE A SCEC.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BE SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THEN NORTHEAST TO EAST
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS
EARLY IN THE MORNING BEFORE DROPPING DOWN TO 15 KNOTS BY THE
EVENING. ON SUNDAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND WINDS ARE
EXPECT TO PEAK AGAIN AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
DROPPING BACK TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE
RUNNING AROUND 3 TO 5 FEET SATURDAY MORNING WITH A FALL TO 2 TO 4
FEET SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW. WITH THE NORTHEAST
FLOW INCREASING THE SEAS WILL INCREASE BACK TO 3 TO 4 FEET ON
SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...A BUMPY MARINE ENVIRONMENT MON-WED AS A
MODERATE ONSHORE WIND FLOW KEEPS SEAS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...AND
OVERALL 3-5 FEET. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY PLAGUE THE WATERS
WITH RAIN AND OCCASIONAL REDUCED VISIBILITY AND ISOLATED TSTMS
AS GULF MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES SPREAD NE OVER THE 0-20 NM
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
FOR 6 FOOT SEAS OFFSHORE...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND
INTERACTS WITH AN OFFSHORE COASTAL TROUGH.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DRH
NEAR TERM...REK/MBB
SHORT TERM...DRH
LONG TERM...MJC
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/DRH




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

 703 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PRECEDE A STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH
WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BE STRONG FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS LINGERING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND WILL UNFOLD
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
AS GULF MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 236 PM THURSDAY...INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED AS AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE
OF A PASSING IMPULSE ALOFT TEMPORARILY TAKES HOLD. DIURNAL CUMULUS
HAS DEVELOPED UPSTREAM AND WITH GOOD INSOLATION ACROSS THE PEE DEE
AND LUMBERTON AREAS THE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE WILL WEAKEN. OUTFLOW
FROM CONVECTION ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHEAST NC HAS DROPPED INTO HORRY
COUNTY... AS NOTED BY EARLIER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD PROVIDE A SPARK FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST SC THIS
AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE BETTER
INSTABILITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION.

THE EARLIER RAINFALL WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON TODAY/S MAX TEMPERATURES
IN THE WILMINGTON AND VICINITY LOCATIONS. AS A RESULT...LOWERED
FORECAST MAX TEMPS THERE...WHILE RETAINED HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR
LBT...FLO...AND INLAND COASTAL SC LOCATIONS. WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
TONIGHT WILL KEEP MIN TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 236 PM THURSDAY...CHIEF HEADLINES ARE A CHANGE OF AIR-MASS
INTO SATURDAY FROM WARM TO MUGGY TO DRY AND MILD...AND A SHOT AT
STRONG STORMS LATE FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SEVERE
THREAT IS NOT SUPPORTED IN DIURNAL TIMING AS IT ARRIVES BEYOND
PEAK SURFACE HEATING FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT COOLING ALOFT MAY SUPPORT
SOME HAIL. TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH
WINDS NO GREATER THAN 35 KNOTS IN THE LOWEST 8KFT...AND H8 25-30
KT BARBS. PEAK PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT AROUND 1.75
INCHES AND SOME JET SUPPORT ALOFT SHOULD OFFER A GOOD SHOT AT
RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST...AND
CLEARING THE COAST AROUND MIDDAY SATURDAY.

UPPER 80 MAXIMUMS FRIDAY INLAND...LOW 80S COASTAL INTERIOR...AND
UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S BEACHES...WILL COOL TO 70S SATURDAY TO
NEAR 80 WELL INLAND...UPPER 60S TO 70 BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 236 PM THURSDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS RATHER QUIET AS A
MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE BELOW ONE HALF INCH SUNDAY WITH A
SLOW INCREASE MONDAY. HAVE KEPT THESE DAYS DRY FOR THE MOST PART.
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INCREASE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS PWS
SURGE TO IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES. HOWEVER SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS SHOW
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING AND POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE CATEGORY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY. FOR
THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING ACROSS AS A BROAD AREA OF MID LEVEL
CONFLUENCE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. I
MAINTAINED THE POPS FOR THURSDAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS AND THE
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AS READINGS WILL BE JUST A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED...HOWEVER THERE IS ONE
MORE IMPULSE THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CWA IN AN HOUR OR SO.
THE HRRR MODEL HAS FAIRLY SPIRITED CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN CWA
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT THINK THIS MAY BE OVERDONE. WILL
KEEP ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE TAFS AT LBT AND FLO AT THIS
TIME. OVERNIGHT...MID AND HIGH CLOUD CONVECTIVE DEBRIS IS EXPECTED
WITH POSSIBLE MVFR FOG.

FRIDAY...AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST GRADIENT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL
GIVE US WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE
SHOULD BE A FAIRLY VIGOROUS LINE OF CONVECTION THAT WILL MARCH
ACROSS THE CWA FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. POSSIBLE
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 236 PM THURSDAY...CONVECTION HAS RESULTED IN A VARIABLE
WIND FIELD ACROSS THE NC COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN TAKE HOLD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE ANY
CONVECTION...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE THROUGH
THE NEAR TERM.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 236 PM THURSDAY...DESPITE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE VERY EARLY
SATURDAY JUST PRIOR TO...OR AROUND DAYBREAK THAT MAY BRING A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE PLANNED...AS
WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW 20 KT.
GUSTS TO 20 KT FRIDAY AFTERNOON SEEMS LIKELY WITH SEA BREEZE
ASSISTANCE...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOT OVERLY STRONG WITH THIS
SYSTEM OUTSIDE OF TSTMS. A FEW MARINE WARNINGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SEAS OF 2-3 FEET WILL BUILD TO
3-4 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY 5 FT VERY OUTER PORTION. PATCHY
SEA FOG POSSIBLE FRIDAY BUT WATERS HAVE WARMED AND CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON ITS FORMATION.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 236 PM THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE
APPALACHIANS TO WELL OFFSHORE DURING THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL RESPOND
BY VEERING FROM NORTHEAST SUNDAY TO SOUTHEAST BY MIDDAY MONDAY. THEY
WILL MAINTAIN THIS DIRECTION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE HIGHER END OF A 10-15 KNOT RANGE SUNDAY THEN
SETTLE INTO THE ENTIRE RANGE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL BE 2-4 FEET SUNDAY DROPPING TO 1-3 FEET LATER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...43



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

 958 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS MORNING AND
RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF
THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1000 AM THURSDAY...THE BACK DOOR FRONT IS LOCATED VICINITY
OF THE CRYSTAL COAST/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL HOLD TO LIKELY POPS THROUGH
NOON ACRS SE SECTIONS. NONE OF THE MODELS IS REALLY HANDLING THIS
PRECIPITATION WELL BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A LULL IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS THEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING THE
HIGH RESOLUTION NSSL WRF MODEL INDICATES STRONG CONVECTION
REDEVELOPING WITH HEATING. THIS IS SUPPORTED SOMEWHAT BY THE
LARGER SCALE MODELS SO WILL INCREASE POPS AGAIN DURING THIS TIME.
SOME STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE LATE AFTN/EVE.

WIDESPREAD STRATUS/PATCHY FOG WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE AND WILL
LIKELY LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
AFTERNOON HEATING TO REALIZE HIGHS INLAND IN THE LOWER 80S AND
LOWER 70S SOUTHERN COAST BEACHES. ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE OUTER
BANKS OFF THE STILL CHILLY SHELF WATERS WILL PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S NORTHERN SECTIONS AND MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTH. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO INIT T/TD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM THURSDAY...THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD BE IN THE EVENING
THEN GUIDANCE INDICATES MID LEVEL DRYING THUS WILL FORECAST DRY
CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO PRECLUDE ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT ALTHOUGH A SHALLOW NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS FORECAST TO
BECOME SATURATED AND COULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS.
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO VERY MILD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE DURING PERIOD WAS
TO LIMIT POPS ERN SECTIONS TO EARLY SAT MORNING...INDICATING DRY
FCST OVER LAND AREAS AFTER 15Z. LATEST MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH PREVIOUS FCST REST OF PERIOD.

MAIN FEATURE DURING PERIOD WILL BE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE INTO AREA FRI NIGHT AND OFFSHORE SAT MORNING. VERY WARM AND
UNSTABLE ATMOS FRI AFTN SUPPORTIVE OF PSBL SVR TSTMS BUT MAIN
FORCING WITH FRONT WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM UNTIL EVENING. ISOLATED TO
SCT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PSBL INLAND OF SEA BREEZE DURING
AFTN...BUT BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AND SVR POTENTIAL
EXPECTED FRI NIGHT...MAINLY FOR WRN AND NRN SECTIONS DURING
EVENING HOURS...AND OVERNIGHT ALONG COAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NC COAST BY
MIDDAY SATURDAY AND CONTINUED TO INDICATE A DRIER TREND FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MAX TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGS COOLER THAN FRIDAY WITH
MID 70S INLAND TO LOWER 60S NORTHERN OBX. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AND GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUN NIGHT. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LATEST GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH SFC
RIDGE EXTENDING OVER AREA FROM OFFSHORE. MSTR RETURNS TUE NIGHT
INTO WED WITH SFC FLOW BECOMING SE-S AND DEEPER MSTR INCREASING
ALOFT FROM SW. KEPT PREVIOUS FCST WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS DEVELOPING
TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUING WED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM THURSDAY...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO REMOVE IFR CIGS FROM OAJ
AND HAVE TSRA IN FCST UNTIL ABT 16Z. WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE MORNING
HOURS ACCORDING TO THE NARRE AND HRRR AVIATION GUIDANCE ALONG WITH
LAMP MOS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON BUT
RETREATING WARM FRONT AND HEATING WILL QUICKLY DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE AND WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE AGAIN FORECASTING A SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER TONIGHT WITH IFR CEILINGS BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS
BELOW NORMAL AT THIS TIME.


LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...VFR EXPECTED FRIDAY THEN HIGHER THREAT OF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT WITH GOOD COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED AS STRONG FRONT MOVES ACROSS EASTERN NC
TAF SITES. GUSTY SW WINDS 15-25 MPH LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OVER THE
REGION WILL ALLOW AVIATION CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM THURSDAY...MAIN CHANGE TO INCREASE SEAS TO 5 FT ACRS
THE NRN AND CNTRL CSTL WATERS THROUGH EARLY AFTN. DENSE FOG
ADVISORY CONTS FOR THE WATERS THIS MORNING. THE FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITH SUSTAINED HEATING LATE THIS MORNING. BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS INCLUDING
THE SOUNDS AND IS STALLING AS FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS TO SHIFT EASTERLY TO 15 KT BEHIND THE
FRONT. LATER TODAY WINDS GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE S-SW AS FRONT
RETREATS BACK NORTH. TONIGHT SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT
LATE. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT TODAY WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST.
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
SW WINDS 15-25 KT FRIDAY INTO FRI NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR
OUTER WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND. INITIAL SURGE OF NRLY WINDS WITH
CAA IN WAKE OF FRONT WILL BE AROUND 15 KT AND LIMITED TO SAT
MORNING. SLIGHTLY STRONGER SECONDARY SURGE OF NE WINDS 15-20 KT
EXPECTED LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AFTN. WINDS THEN DIMINISHING AND
GRADUALLY VEERING TO SE SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST...NWPS AND WW3 USED FOR SEAS. HEIGHTS
BUILDING TO 6-7 FT FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT....LOWERING SAT AND
THEN BUILDING AGAIN SUNDAY WITH SECONDARY NE SURGE. LIGHTER WINDS
WILL THEN ALLOW SEAS TO DROP TO AROUND 2 FT MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ130-131-
     135>137-150-152-154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JAC/JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JAC/JME/JBM
MARINE...JAC/JME/JBM




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

 700 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS MORNING AND
RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF
THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 700 AM THURSDAY...THE BACK DOOR FRONT IS LOCATED VICINITY
OF THE CRYSTAL COAST/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND APPEARS TO HAVE
STALLED AS FORECAST. THE FRONT WILL THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
IS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AND WILL NEED TO INCREASE
POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NONE OF THE MODELS IS
REALLY HANDLING THIS PRECIPITATION WELL BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A
LULL IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS THEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING THE HIGH RESOLUTION NSSL WRF MODEL INDICATES STRONG
CONVECTION REDEVELOPING WITH HEATING. THIS IS SUPPORTED SOMEWHAT
BY THE LARGER SCALE MODELS SO WILL INCREASE POPS AGAIN DURING
THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH WE ARE NOT OUTLOOKED BY THE SPC FOR SEVERE
STORMS IT WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND GIVEN THE THERMAL
AND KINEMATIC PROFILES COMMON THIS TIME OF YEAR, STORMS COULD
BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
POSSIBLE.

WIDESPREAD STRATUS/PATCHY FOG WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE TODAY AND
COULD LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
AFTERNOON HEATING TO REALIZE HIGHS INLAND IN THE LOWER 80S AND
LOWER 70S SOUTHERN COAST BEACHES. ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE OUTER
BANKS OFF THE STILL CHILLY SHELF WATERS WILL PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S NORTHERN SECTIONS AND MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM THURSDAY...THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD BE IN THE EVENING
THEN GUIDANCE INDICATES MID LEVEL DRYING THUS WILL FORECAST DRY
CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO PRECLUDE ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT ALTHOUGH A SHALLOW NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS FORECAST TO
BECOME SATURATED AND COULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS.
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO VERY MILD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE DURING PERIOD WAS
TO LIMIT POPS ERN SECTIONS TO EARLY SAT MORNING...INDICATING DRY
FCST OVER LAND AREAS AFTER 15Z. LATEST MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH PREVIOUS FCST REST OF PERIOD.

MAIN FEATURE DURING PERIOD WILL BE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE INTO AREA FRI NIGHT AND OFFSHORE SAT MORNING. VERY WARM AND
UNSTABLE ATMOS FRI AFTN SUPPORTIVE OF PSBL SVR TSTMS BUT MAIN
FORCING WITH FRONT WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM UNTIL EVENING. ISOLATED TO
SCT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PSBL INLAND OF SEA BREEZE DURING
AFTN...BUT BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AND SVR POTENTIAL
EXPECTED FRI NIGHT...MAINLY FOR WRN AND NRN SECTIONS DURING
EVENING HOURS...AND OVERNIGHT ALONG COAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NC COAST BY
MIDDAY SATURDAY AND CONTINUED TO INDICATE A DRIER TREND FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MAX TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGS COOLER THAN FRIDAY WITH
MID 70S INLAND TO LOWER 60S NORTHERN OBX. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AND GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUN NIGHT. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LATEST GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH SFC
RIDGE EXTENDING OVER AREA FROM OFFSHORE. MSTR RETURNS TUE NIGHT
INTO WED WITH SFC FLOW BECOMING SE-S AND DEEPER MSTR INCREASING
ALOFT FROM SW. KEPT PREVIOUS FCST WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS DEVELOPING
TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUING WED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE MORNING HOURS ACCORDING TO
THE NARRE AND HRRR AVIATION GUIDANCE ALONG WITH LAMP MOS. IN
ADDITION TO THE FOG AND STRATUS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AFFECTING THE TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 14Z WITH DOWNPOURS AND
GUSTY WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON BUT
RETREATING WARM FRONT AND HEATING WILL QUICKLY DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE AND WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE AGAIN FORECASTING A SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER TONIGHT WITH IFR CEILINGS BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS
BELOW NORMAL AT THIS TIME.


LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...VFR EXPECTED FRIDAY THEN HIGHER THREAT OF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT WITH GOOD COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED AS STRONG FRONT MOVES ACROSS EASTERN NC
TAF SITES. GUSTY SW WINDS 15-25 MPH LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OVER THE
REGION WILL ALLOW AVIATION CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM THURSDAY...DENSE FOG INDICATED IN MARINE OBSERVATIONS
HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE
WATERS THIS MORNING. THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH SUSTAINED
HEATING LATE THIS MORNING. BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS INCLUDING THE SOUNDS AND IS
STALLING AS FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING.
WINDS TO SHIFT EASTERLY TO 15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. LATER TODAY
WINDS GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE S-SW AS FRONT RETREATS BACK NORTH.
TONIGHT SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT
TODAY WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST.
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
SW WINDS 15-25 KT FRIDAY INTO FRI NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR
OUTER WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND. INITIAL SURGE OF NRLY WINDS WITH
CAA IN WAKE OF FRONT WILL BE AROUND 15 KT AND LIMITED TO SAT
MORNING. SLIGHTLY STRONGER SECONDARY SURGE OF NE WINDS 15-20 KT
EXPECTED LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AFTN. WINDS THEN DIMINISHING AND
GRADUALLY VEERING TO SE SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY.

BLEND OF PREVIUOS FCST...NWPS AND WW3 USED FOR SEAS. HEIGHTS
BUILDING TO 6-7 FT FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT....LOWERING SAT AND
THEN BUILDING AGAIN SUNDAY WITH SECONDARY NE SURGE. LIGHTER WINDS
WILL THEN ALLOW SEAS TO DROP TO AROUND 2 FT MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ130-131-
     135>137-150-152-154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JME/JBM
MARINE...JME/JBM



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

 650 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA
TODAY... AND THEN RETREAT BACK NORTHWARD BY EARLY TONIGHT. BREEZY
AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS... AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM THURSDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO FORM EARLY THIS MORNING
OVER THE WRN AND SRN CWA... ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE BACKDOOR
FRONT/MERGED OUTFLOW (FROM LAST EVENING`S SUPERCELL) CURRENTLY
SPRAWLED NW TO SE THROUGH CENTRAL NC. THIS CONVECTION IS TRAVELING
WITH THE (WEAK) MEAN FLOW TOWARD THE ENE INTO THE MORE STABLE
SURFACE-BASED AIR... WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ITS ABILITY TO INTENSIFY
OVERNIGHT. BUT ELEVATED INSTABILITY PERSISTS WITH 500-1000 J/KG
MUCAPE AND OBSERVED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 7 C/KM... AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR HOLDS AT 30-40 KTS ALONG THE CAPE GRADIENT WITH
OBSERVED HIGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE LOW LEVELS AND PW OVER 150%
OF NORMAL. THESE FACTORS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED PULSING
SHOWERS/STORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WRN AND SRN CWA... ALONG AND SW
OF THE FRONT/OUTFLOW... WITH LESSER COVERAGE TO THE NORTH AND EAST
WHERE INSTABILITY IS MORE ELEVATED. HOWEVER... WE WILL NEED TO WATCH
THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX NOW OVER WRN VA TO ENSURE THAT ITS COLD POOL
AND MID LEVEL MCV DOES NOT PROPAGATE TOO FAR SE TOWARD OUR NE CWA
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... AS WAS INDICATED BY EARLIER HRRR RUNS
AND HINTED AT BY THE LATEST NAM. AFTER THIS MCV SHIFTS EASTWARD OFF
THE VA COAST AS IT IS EXPECTED TO DO BY MID MORNING... LARGE SCALE
FALLING HEIGHTS OVER THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS
MORNING SHOULD FORCE GRADUAL RISES IN HEIGHTS DOWNSTREAM OVER THE
MIDATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST BY LATER TODAY... LEADING TO A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR. BUT WE SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST
MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE FRONTAL ZONE...
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OR JUMP BACK NORTHEAST LATE TODAY OR THIS
EVENING... WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECTED TO HOLD AT 6.5-7.0
C/KM... MUCAPE UP TO 1500-2500 J/KG (ACCORDING TO THE NAM)... AND
WHAT SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO
SUPPORT CONVECTION. THE NAM CONCENTRATES THE BETTER CONVECTION
COVERAGE ALONG AND JUST SW OF THE FRONT FROM THE TRIAD REGION ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN TODAY... AND THIS LOOKS
VERY REASONABLE. WILL HAVE A 40-60% POP MAINLY FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHER-END POPS ORIENTED IN A BAND NW
TO SE FROM AROUND INT TO GSB. A STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM OR
TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE TODAY GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS. WHILE WE DON`T EXPECT A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT TODAY
WITH THE RISE IN MID LEVEL HEIGHTS... MODELS DO INDICATE AN UPPER
DIVERGENCE MAX LATER TODAY OVER CENTRAL NC... AND THIS PLUS HIGH PW
VALUES SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG CELLS AND SLOW-MOVING
HEAVY RAINERS. BY TONIGHT... WE SHOULD SEE THE HIGHER COVERAGE
TRANSITION INTO THE NW CWA... AS THIS IS WHERE THE SHEAR WILL
STRENGTHEN AND BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION... WHEREAS
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS WILL BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING
RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH WEAKER SHEAR. THE SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR NOW NOTED IN BLENDED TPW IMAGERY NORTH AND NE OF THE
BAHAMAS WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO ERN NC AS WELL... LIKELY
LEADING TO LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS SE OF THE
TRIANGLE AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS OF 80-85 OVER THE SW
HALF WITH COOLER MID-UPPER 70S NE OF THE FRONT WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL
LINGER THE LONGEST BEFORE STARTING TO THIN AND MIX OUT. WARM LOWS
TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE MID 60S AS WE`LL BE FULLY IN THE PREFRONTAL
WARM SECTOR. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM THURSDAY...

MID LEVEL MULTI-STREAM ENERGY WILL PHASE INTO AN INTENSIFYING MID
LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES FRI AND PUSH A COLD FRONT ESE...
REACHING THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY EARLY FRI AFTERNOON. THIS
FRONT WILL THEN PUSH SE THROUGH CENTRAL NC FROM EARLY EVENING
THROUGH FRI NIGHT... PROPELLED BY THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW
OVER SRN QUEBEC AND BY COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MID
MISS VALLEY. LOW LEVEL SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS INTO THE TEENS AND POTENTIAL GUSTS UP TO 25-30
KTS AS INDICATED BY LOW LEVEL MOMENTUM TRANSPORT NOTED ON FORECAST
BUFR SOUNDINGS. EXPECT A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIP FRI MORNING... A
FUNCTION OF RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS AND BRIEF
WEAK SUBSIDENCE DOWNSTREAM OF INCREASING PREFRONTAL CONVECTION TO
OUR WEST FROM OH THROUGH KY/TN TO MS/LA. BUT WILL HAVE POPS RISING
TO LIKELY IN THE NW FRI AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES... AND
INTO THE EASTERN CWA FRI EVENING BEFORE TRENDING DRY FROM NW TO SE
LATE. BASED ON EXPECTED VERY HIGH PW (OVER 200% OF NORMAL)... STRONG
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT... AND A RESUMPTION OF STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 110+ KT JET STREAK...
POPS MAY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP TO CATEGORICAL LATER TODAY.
THICKNESSES AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE INDICATE HIGHS FROM 80-85
(WARMEST SE). LOWS FROM THE LOW 50S NW TO THE LOW 60S SE WHERE THE
FRONT MAY NOT CLEAR UNTIL LATE. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM THURSDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH
CENTRAL NC AND ALONG THE NC COAST BY 12Z SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...LINGERING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
SATURDAY NIGHT...INCREASING TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: A WEAK RIDGE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL BECOME MORE WEST-EAST ORIENTED ON
TUESDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY...
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO
AND LINGERING OVER THE AREA. IF THE RIDGE HOLDS THE BACKDOOR FRONT
AT BAY LONGER THAN THE MODELS ARE PREDICTING THEN MUCH OF TUESDAY
COULD REMAIN DRY...HOWEVER GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS WANT TO KEEP LINGERING RAIN IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
WILL KEEP THAT PART OF THE FORECAST DRY UNTIL THERE IS BETTER
AGREEMENT AND HIGHER CONFIDENCE. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN TEH MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM THURSDAY...

PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN NEXT 24 HRS: IFR/LIFR CIGS THROUGH THE
MORNING AT RWI/RDU/GSO/INT WITH LESSER CHANCES AT FAY.

A SMALL BUT POTENT STORM COMPLEX THAT MOVED SE OVER NRN AND ERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC LAST EVENING HELPED DRAW A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SOUTHWESTWARD WELL INTO CENTRAL NC... WITH LOW CLOUDS BASED
UNDER 1000 FT AGL AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVING SPREAD INTO NRN/ERN
NC FROM VA OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED STORMS AFFECTED MOST CENTRAL NC TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT WITH SHORT-LIVED MVFR VSBYS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE
CURRENT IFR/LIFR CIGS SHOULD RISE TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON... THEN TO VFR BY MID AFTERNOON... WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ORIENTED NW TO SE OVER CENTRAL NC
DEVELOPING BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECISELY
WHERE THESE STORMS MIGHT FORM AND WHEN... AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOWER-THAN-EXPECTED COVERAGE... PRECLUDES MENTIONING THEM IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME. BUT AVIATORS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE POSSIBILITY
OF STORMS... AND THE VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS AND SUB-VFR DOWNPOURS THAT
OFTEN ACCOMPANY THEM... BOTH IN THE PREDAWN HOURS AND THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. PATCHY FOG AND AREAS OF IFR/LIFR STRATUS
ARE LIKELY DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD...
PARTICULARLY IN THOSE LOCATIONS THAT SEE PRECIPITATION TODAY.

LOOKING BEYOND 12Z EARLY FRI MORNING: SUB-VFR STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG
SHOULD MIX UP TO VFR BY MID MORNING. A BREEZE FROM THE SW AT 10-20
KT RAMPING UP TOWARD MIDDAY FRI MAY GUST UP TO AROUND 25 KTS FRI
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH SE THROUGH CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 00Z AND 09Z SAT. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IS LIKELY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT FROM MID AFTERNOON FRI THROUGH FRI NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY FROM SAT MORNING THROUGH MON... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE MIDATLANTIC REGION OVER THE WEEKEND THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY MON.
-GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

 351 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA
TODAY... AND THEN RETREAT BACK NORTHWARD BY EARLY TONIGHT. BREEZY
AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS... AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM THURSDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO FORM EARLY THIS MORNING
OVER THE WRN AND SRN CWA... ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE BACKDOOR
FRONT/MERGED OUTFLOW (FROM LAST EVENING`S SUPERCELL) CURRENTLY
SPRAWLED NW TO SE THROUGH CENTRAL NC. THIS CONVECTION IS TRAVELING
WITH THE (WEAK) MEAN FLOW TOWARD THE ENE INTO THE MORE STABLE
SURFACE-BASED AIR... WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ITS ABILITY TO INTENSIFY
OVERNIGHT. BUT ELEVATED INSTABILITY PERSISTS WITH 500-1000 J/KG
MUCAPE AND OBSERVED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 7 C/KM... AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR HOLDS AT 30-40 KTS ALONG THE CAPE GRADIENT WITH
OBSERVED HIGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE LOW LEVELS AND PW OVER 150%
OF NORMAL. THESE FACTORS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED PULSING
SHOWERS/STORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WRN AND SRN CWA... ALONG AND SW
OF THE FRONT/OUTFLOW... WITH LESSER COVERAGE TO THE NORTH AND EAST
WHERE INSTABILITY IS MORE ELEVATED. HOWEVER... WE WILL NEED TO WATCH
THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX NOW OVER WRN VA TO ENSURE THAT ITS COLD POOL
AND MID LEVEL MCV DOES NOT PROPAGATE TOO FAR SE TOWARD OUR NE CWA
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... AS WAS INDICATED BY EARLIER HRRR RUNS
AND HINTED AT BY THE LATEST NAM. AFTER THIS MCV SHIFTS EASTWARD OFF
THE VA COAST AS IT IS EXPECTED TO DO BY MID MORNING... LARGE SCALE
FALLING HEIGHTS OVER THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS
MORNING SHOULD FORCE GRADUAL RISES IN HEIGHTS DOWNSTREAM OVER THE
MIDATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST BY LATER TODAY... LEADING TO A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR. BUT WE SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST
MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE FRONTAL ZONE...
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OR JUMP BACK NORTHEAST LATE TODAY OR THIS
EVENING... WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECTED TO HOLD AT 6.5-7.0
C/KM... MUCAPE UP TO 1500-2500 J/KG (ACCORDING TO THE NAM)... AND
WHAT SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO
SUPPORT CONVECTION. THE NAM CONCENTRATES THE BETTER CONVECTION
COVERAGE ALONG AND JUST SW OF THE FRONT FROM THE TRIAD REGION ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN TODAY... AND THIS LOOKS
VERY REASONABLE. WILL HAVE A 40-60% POP MAINLY FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHER-END POPS ORIENTED IN A BAND NW
TO SE FROM AROUND INT TO GSB. A STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM OR
TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE TODAY GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS. WHILE WE DON`T EXPECT A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT TODAY
WITH THE RISE IN MID LEVEL HEIGHTS... MODELS DO INDICATE AN UPPER
DIVERGENCE MAX LATER TODAY OVER CENTRAL NC... AND THIS PLUS HIGH PW
VALUES SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG CELLS AND SLOW-MOVING
HEAVY RAINERS. BY TONIGHT... WE SHOULD SEE THE HIGHER COVERAGE
TRANSITION INTO THE NW CWA... AS THIS IS WHERE THE SHEAR WILL
STRENGTHEN AND BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION... WHEREAS
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS WILL BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING
RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH WEAKER SHEAR. THE SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR NOW NOTED IN BLENDED TPW IMAGERY NORTH AND NE OF THE
BAHAMAS WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO ERN NC AS WELL... LIKELY
LEADING TO LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS SE OF THE
TRIANGLE AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS OF 80-85 OVER THE SW
HALF WITH COOLER MID-UPPER 70S NE OF THE FRONT WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL
LINGER THE LONGEST BEFORE STARTING TO THIN AND MIX OUT. WARM LOWS
TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE MID 60S AS WE`LL BE FULLY IN THE PREFRONTAL
WARM SECTOR. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM THURSDAY...

MID LEVEL MULTI-STREAM ENERGY WILL PHASE INTO AN INTENSIFYING MID
LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES FRI AND PUSH A COLD FRONT ESE...
REACHING THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY EARLY FRI AFTERNOON. THIS
FRONT WILL THEN PUSH SE THROUGH CENTRAL NC FROM EARLY EVENING
THROUGH FRI NIGHT... PROPELLED BY THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW
OVER SRN QUEBEC AND BY COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MID
MISS VALLEY. LOW LEVEL SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS INTO THE TEENS AND POTENTIAL GUSTS UP TO 25-30
KTS AS INDICATED BY LOW LEVEL MOMENTUM TRANSPORT NOTED ON FORECAST
BUFR SOUNDINGS. EXPECT A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIP FRI MORNING... A
FUNCTION OF RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS AND BRIEF
WEAK SUBSIDENCE DOWNSTREAM OF INCREASING PREFRONTAL CONVECTION TO
OUR WEST FROM OH THROUGH KY/TN TO MS/LA. BUT WILL HAVE POPS RISING
TO LIKELY IN THE NW FRI AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES... AND
INTO THE EASTERN CWA FRI EVENING BEFORE TRENDING DRY FROM NW TO SE
LATE. BASED ON EXPECTED VERY HIGH PW (OVER 200% OF NORMAL)... STRONG
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT... AND A RESUMPTION OF STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 110+ KT JET STREAK...
POPS MAY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP TO CATEGORICAL LATER TODAY.
THICKNESSES AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE INDICATE HIGHS FROM 80-85
(WARMEST SE). LOWS FROM THE LOW 50S NW TO THE LOW 60S SE WHERE THE
FRONT MAY NOT CLEAR UNTIL LATE. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM THURSDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH
CENTRAL NC AND ALONG THE NC COAST BY 12Z SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...LINGERING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
SATURDAY NIGHT...INCREASING TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: A WEAK RIDGE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL BECOME MORE WEST-EAST ORIENTED ON
TUESDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY...
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO
AND LINGERING OVER THE AREA. IF THE RIDGE HOLDS THE BACKDOOR FRONT
AT BAY LONGER THAN THE MODELS ARE PREDICTING THEN MUCH OF TUESDAY
COULD REMAIN DRY...HOWEVER GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS WANT TO KEEP LINGERING RAIN IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
WILL KEEP THAT PART OF THE FORECAST DRY UNTIL THERE IS BETTER
AGREEMENT AND HIGHER CONFIDENCE. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN TEH MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM THURSDAY...

PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN NEXT 24 HRS: POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR CIGS
THROUGH LATE MORNING AT RWI/RDU WITH LESSER CHANCES AT GSO/INT/FAY.

A SMALL BUT POTENT STORM COMPLEX THAT MOVED SE OVER NRN AND ERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC THIS PAST EVENING HELPED DRAW A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SOUTHWESTWARD WELL INTO CENTRAL NC. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE
SHIFTING TO BE FROM THE EAST AND NE... AND LOW CLOUDS BASED UNDER
1000 FT AGL ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE VA
TOWARD THE SOUTH AND SW OVERNIGHT. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN IFR/LIFR
CIGS IS AT RWI FOLLOWED BY RDU THEN GSO/INT/FAY. A FEW ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK MAINLY OVER THE FAR
NORTH AND EAST... FROM GSO TO RDU/RWI/FAY... BUT MOST PLACES WILL
REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR BUT AT THIS
TIME DON`T LOOK LIKELY TO DROP DOWN TO IFR. CIGS SHOULD RISE TO MVFR
BY LATE MORNING THEN TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH ANOTHER BATCH
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ORIENTED NW TO SE OVER CENTRAL NC
DEVELOPING BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECISELY
WHERE THESE STORMS MIGHT FORM AND WHEN... AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOWER-THAN-EXPECTED COVERAGE... PRECLUDES MENTIONING THEM IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME. BUT AVIATORS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE POSSIBILITY
OF STORMS... AND THE VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS AND SUB-VFR DOWNPOURS THAT
OFTEN ACCOMPANY THEM... BOTH IN THE PREDAWN HOURS AND THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. PATCHY FOG AND AREAS OF IFR/LIFR STRATUS
ARE LIKELY TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD PARTICULARLY IN
THOSE LOCATIONS THAT SEE PRECIPITATION TODAY.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY FRI MORNING: SUB-VFR STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK FRI... BEFORE MIXING UP TO VFR BY
MID MORNING. A BREEZE FROM THE SW AT 10-20 KT RAMPING UP TOWARD
MIDDAY FRI MAY GUST UP TO AROUND 25 KTS FRI AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
OCCUR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SE THROUGH
CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 00Z AND 09Z SAT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IS LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM MID
AFTERNOON FRI THROUGH FRI NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FROM SAT
MORNING THROUGH MON... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDATLANTIC
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY MON. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

 325 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA
TODAY... AND THEN RETREAT BACK NORTHWARD BY EARLY TONIGHT. BREEZY
AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS... AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM THURSDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO FORM EARLY THIS MORNING
OVER THE WRN AND SRN CWA... ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE BACKDOOR
FRONT/MERGED OUTFLOW (FROM LAST EVENING`S SUPERCELL) CURRENTLY
SPRAWLED NW TO SE THROUGH CENTRAL NC. THIS CONVECTION IS TRAVELING
WITH THE (WEAK) MEAN FLOW TOWARD THE ENE INTO THE MORE STABLE
SURFACE-BASED AIR... WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ITS ABILITY TO INTENSIFY
OVERNIGHT. BUT ELEVATED INSTABILITY PERSISTS WITH 500-1000 J/KG
MUCAPE AND OBSERVED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 7 C/KM... AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR HOLDS AT 30-40 KTS ALONG THE CAPE GRADIENT WITH
OBSERVED HIGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE LOW LEVELS AND PW OVER 150%
OF NORMAL. THESE FACTORS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED PULSING
SHOWERS/STORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WRN AND SRN CWA... ALONG AND SW
OF THE FRONT/OUTFLOW... WITH LESSER COVERAGE TO THE NORTH AND EAST
WHERE INSTABILITY IS MORE ELEVATED. HOWEVER... WE WILL NEED TO WATCH
THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX NOW OVER WRN VA TO ENSURE THAT ITS COLD POOL
AND MID LEVEL MCV DOES NOT PROPAGATE TOO FAR SE TOWARD OUR NE CWA
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... AS WAS INDICATED BY EARLIER HRRR RUNS
AND HINTED AT BY THE LATEST NAM. AFTER THIS MCV SHIFTS EASTWARD OFF
THE VA COAST AS IT IS EXPECTED TO DO BY MID MORNING... LARGE SCALE
FALLING HEIGHTS OVER THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS
MORNING SHOULD FORCE GRADUAL RISES IN HEIGHTS DOWNSTREAM OVER THE
MIDATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST BY LATER TODAY... LEADING TO A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR. BUT WE SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST
MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE FRONTAL ZONE...
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OR JUMP BACK NORTHEAST LATE TODAY OR THIS
EVENING... WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECTED TO HOLD AT 6.5-7.0
C/KM... MUCAPE UP TO 1500-2500 J/KG (ACCORDING TO THE NAM)... AND
WHAT SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO
SUPPORT CONVECTION. THE NAM CONCENTRATES THE BETTER CONVECTION
COVERAGE ALONG AND JUST SW OF THE FRONT FROM THE TRIAD REGION ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN TODAY... AND THIS LOOKS
VERY REASONABLE. WILL HAVE A 40-60% POP MAINLY FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHER-END POPS ORIENTED IN A BAND NW
TO SE FROM AROUND INT TO GSB. A STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM OR
TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE TODAY GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS. WHILE WE DON`T EXPECT A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT TODAY
WITH THE RISE IN MID LEVEL HEIGHTS... MODELS DO INDICATE AN UPPER
DIVERGENCE MAX LATER TODAY OVER CENTRAL NC... AND THIS PLUS HIGH PW
VALUES SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG CELLS AND SLOW-MOVING
HEAVY RAINERS. BY TONIGHT... WE SHOULD SEE THE HIGHER COVERAGE
TRANSITION INTO THE NW CWA... AS THIS IS WHERE THE SHEAR WILL
STRENGTHEN AND BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION... WHEREAS
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS WILL BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING
RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH WEAKER SHEAR. THE SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR NOW NOTED IN BLENDED TPW IMAGERY NORTH AND NE OF THE
BAHAMAS WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO ERN NC AS WELL... LIKELY
LEADING TO LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS SE OF THE
TRIANGLE AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS OF 80-85 OVER THE SW
HALF WITH COOLER MID-UPPER 70S NE OF THE FRONT WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL
LINGER THE LONGEST BEFORE STARTING TO THIN AND MIX OUT. WARM LOWS
TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE MID 60S AS WE`LL BE FULLY IN THE PREFRONTAL
WARM SECTOR. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM THURSDAY...

MID LEVEL MULTI-STREAM ENERGY WILL PHASE INTO AN INTENSIFYING MID
LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES FRI AND PUSH A COLD FRONT ESE...
REACHING THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY EARLY FRI AFTERNOON. THIS
FRONT WILL THEN PUSH SE THROUGH CENTRAL NC FROM EARLY EVENING
THROUGH FRI NIGHT... PROPELLED BY THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW
OVER SRN QUEBEC AND BY COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MID
MISS VALLEY. LOW LEVEL SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS INTO THE TEENS AND POTENTIAL GUSTS UP TO 25-30
KTS AS INDICATED BY LOW LEVEL MOMENTUM TRANSPORT NOTED ON FORECAST
BUFR SOUNDINGS. EXPECT A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIP FRI MORNING... A
FUNCTION OF RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS AND BRIEF
WEAK SUBSIDENCE DOWNSTREAM OF INCREASING PREFRONTAL CONVECTION TO
OUR WEST FROM OH THROUGH KY/TN TO MS/LA. BUT WILL HAVE POPS RISING
TO LIKELY IN THE NW FRI AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES... AND
INTO THE EASTERN CWA FRI EVENING BEFORE TRENDING DRY FROM NW TO SE
LATE. BASED ON EXPECTED VERY HIGH PW (OVER 200% OF NORMAL)... STRONG
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT... AND A RESUMPTION OF STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 110+ KT JET STREAK...
POPS MAY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP TO CATEGORICAL LATER TODAY.
THICKNESSES AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE INDICATE HIGHS FROM 80-85
(WARMEST SE). LOWS FROM THE LOW 50S NW TO THE LOW 60S SE WHERE THE
FRONT MAY NOT CLEAR UNTIL LATE. -GIH

&&

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM WEDNESDAY...

MERGING SHORTWAVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SEND A SURFACE LOW
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY AND COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
APPALACHIANS EARLY FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 25-30MPH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
NW TO MID 80S SE.  UNLESS DEWPOINTS MIX OUT MORE THAN SOUNDINGS
SHOW...MLCAPE IS EXPECTED TO VARY FROM AROUND 500 J/KG WEST TO AS
MUCH AS 1000-1500 J/KG EAST. HOWEVER... WITH UNIFORM SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW THERE`S NOT MUCH TO TRIGGER/ENHANCE CONVECTION UNTIL LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON IN THE WEST WHEN A PREFRONTAL TROUGH BEGINS TO SHARPEN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  SEVERE POTENTIAL DEPENDS SOMEWHAT ON THE TIMING
BUT CURRENTLY LOOKS BEST LATE AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND EVENING IN
THE WEST AS BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO 40-45KT ...THOUGH THE TREND MAY
BE TO WEAKEN TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THE FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH THROUGH PRETTY QUICKLY FRIDAY
NIGHT AND BE EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLS
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES.  THE ECMWF SHOWS MORE
IN THE WAY OF HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US...BUT
SKIES HERE SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR.  THE GFS IS A TOUCH COOLER THAN
THE ECMWF FOR LOWS SUNDAY MORNING AND IS PREFERRED GIVEN 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES DROPPING WELL BE 1350M AND PRETTY GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS DESPITE THE HIGH STAYING TO OUR NORTH.  WILL GO
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S.

THE PATTERN FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS
SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO THE PATTERN THIS WEEK...WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE INNER MOUNTAIN WEST AND A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN US.  THE
MAIN DIFFERENCE MAY BE A LESSER DEGREE OF HEATING AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY THE ECMWF...WHICH HAD BEEN MUCH MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE
THAN THE GFS...WAS OVERALL DRIER ON THE 12Z RUN...WHICH IS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS/CANADIAN AND SEEMS TO FIT THE PATTERN A
LITTLE BETTER.  WILL ADJUST POPS  TO SHOW SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES IN
THE WEST VERSUS THE EAST....THOUGH KEEPING POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE
MONDAY AND LOW END CHANCE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY THICKNESSES ARE PROGGED
TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...20M OR SO...WHICH SUGGESTS AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80...A LITTLE WARMER EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM THURSDAY...

PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN NEXT 24 HRS: POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR CIGS
THROUGH LATE MORNING AT RWI/RDU WITH LESSER CHANCES AT GSO/INT/FAY.

A SMALL BUT POTENT STORM COMPLEX THAT MOVED SE OVER NRN AND ERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC THIS PAST EVENING HELPED DRAW A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SOUTHWESTWARD WELL INTO CENTRAL NC. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE
SHIFTING TO BE FROM THE EAST AND NE... AND LOW CLOUDS BASED UNDER
1000 FT AGL ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE VA
TOWARD THE SOUTH AND SW OVERNIGHT. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN IFR/LIFR
CIGS IS AT RWI FOLLOWED BY RDU THEN GSO/INT/FAY. A FEW ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK MAINLY OVER THE FAR
NORTH AND EAST... FROM GSO TO RDU/RWI/FAY... BUT MOST PLACES WILL
REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR BUT AT THIS
TIME DON`T LOOK LIKELY TO DROP DOWN TO IFR. CIGS SHOULD RISE TO MVFR
BY LATE MORNING THEN TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH ANOTHER BATCH
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ORIENTED NW TO SE OVER CENTRAL NC
DEVELOPING BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECISELY
WHERE THESE STORMS MIGHT FORM AND WHEN... AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOWER-THAN-EXPECTED COVERAGE... PRECLUDES MENTIONING THEM IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME. BUT AVIATORS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE POSSIBILITY
OF STORMS... AND THE VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS AND SUB-VFR DOWNPOURS THAT
OFTEN ACCOMPANY THEM... BOTH IN THE PREDAWN HOURS AND THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. PATCHY FOG AND AREAS OF IFR/LIFR STRATUS
ARE LIKELY TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD PARTICULARLY IN
THOSE LOCATIONS THAT SEE PRECIPITATION TODAY.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY FRI MORNING: SUB-VFR STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK FRI... BEFORE MIXING UP TO VFR BY
MID MORNING. A BREEZE FROM THE SW AT 10-20 KT RAMPING UP TOWARD
MIDDAY FRI MAY GUST UP TO AROUND 25 KTS FRI AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
OCCUR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SE THROUGH
CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 00Z AND 09Z SAT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IS LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM MID
AFTERNOON FRI THROUGH FRI NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FROM SAT
MORNING THROUGH MON... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDATLANTIC
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY MON. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...HARTFIELD



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

 255 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA
TODAY... AND THEN RETREAT BACK NORTHWARD BY EARLY TONIGHT. BREEZY
AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS... AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM THURSDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO FORM EARLY THIS MORNING
OVER THE WRN AND SRN CWA... ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE BACKDOOR
FRONT/MERGED OUTFLOW (FROM LAST EVENING`S SUPERCELL) CURRENTLY
SPRAWLED NW TO SE THROUGH CENTRAL NC. THIS CONVECTION IS TRAVELING
WITH THE (WEAK) MEAN FLOW TOWARD THE ENE INTO THE MORE STABLE
SURFACE-BASED AIR... WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ITS ABILITY TO INTENSIFY
OVERNIGHT. BUT ELEVATED INSTABILITY PERSISTS WITH 500-1000 J/KG
MUCAPE AND OBSERVED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 7 C/KM... AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR HOLDS AT 30-40 KTS ALONG THE CAPE GRADIENT WITH
OBSERVED HIGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE LOW LEVELS AND PW OVER 150%
OF NORMAL. THESE FACTORS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED PULSING
SHOWERS/STORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WRN AND SRN CWA... ALONG AND SW
OF THE FRONT/OUTFLOW... WITH LESSER COVERAGE TO THE NORTH AND EAST
WHERE INSTABILITY IS MORE ELEVATED. HOWEVER... WE WILL NEED TO WATCH
THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX NOW OVER WRN VA TO ENSURE THAT ITS COLD POOL
AND MID LEVEL MCV DOES NOT PROPAGATE TOO FAR SE TOWARD OUR NE CWA
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... AS WAS INDICATED BY EARLIER HRRR RUNS
AND HINTED AT BY THE LATEST NAM. AFTER THIS MCV SHIFTS EASTWARD OFF
THE VA COAST AS IT IS EXPECTED TO DO BY MID MORNING... LARGE SCALE
FALLING HEIGHTS OVER THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS
MORNING SHOULD FORCE GRADUAL RISES IN HEIGHTS DOWNSTREAM OVER THE
MIDATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST BY LATER TODAY... LEADING TO A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR. BUT WE SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST
MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE FRONTAL ZONE...
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OR JUMP BACK NORTHEAST LATE TODAY OR THIS
EVENING... WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECTED TO HOLD AT 6.5-7.0
C/KM... MUCAPE UP TO 1500-2500 J/KG (ACCORDING TO THE NAM)... AND
WHAT SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO
SUPPORT CONVECTION. THE NAM CONCENTRATES THE BETTER CONVECTION
COVERAGE ALONG AND JUST SW OF THE FRONT FROM THE TRIAD REGION ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN TODAY... AND THIS LOOKS
VERY REASONABLE. WILL HAVE A 40-60% POP MAINLY FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHER-END POPS ORIENTED IN A BAND NW
TO SE FROM AROUND INT TO GSB. A STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM OR
TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE TODAY GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS. WHILE WE DON`T EXPECT A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT TODAY
WITH THE RISE IN MID LEVEL HEIGHTS... MODELS DO INDICATE AN UPPER
DIVERGENCE MAX LATER TODAY OVER CENTRAL NC... AND THIS PLUS HIGH PW
VALUES SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG CELLS AND SLOW-MOVING
HEAVY RAINERS. BY TONIGHT... WE SHOULD SEE THE HIGHER COVERAGE
TRANSITION INTO THE NW CWA... AS THIS IS WHERE THE SHEAR WILL
STRENGTHEN AND BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION... WHEREAS
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS WILL BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING
RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH WEAKER SHEAR. THE SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR NOW NOTED IN BLENDED TPW IMAGERY NORTH AND NE OF THE
BAHAMAS WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO ERN NC AS WELL... LIKELY
LEADING TO LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS SE OF THE
TRIANGLE AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS OF 80-85 OVER THE SW
HALF WITH COOLER MID-UPPER 70S NE OF THE FRONT WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL
LINGER THE LONGEST BEFORE STARTING TO THIN AND MIX OUT. WARM LOWS
TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE MID 60S AS WE`LL BE FULLY IN THE PREFRONTAL
WARM SECTOR. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...

TO BE UPDATED SHORTLY.

&&

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM WEDNESDAY...

MERGING SHORTWAVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SEND A SURFACE LOW
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY AND COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
APPALACHIANS EARLY FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 25-30MPH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
NW TO MID 80S SE.  UNLESS DEWPOINTS MIX OUT MORE THAN SOUNDINGS
SHOW...MLCAPE IS EXPECTED TO VARY FROM AROUND 500 J/KG WEST TO AS
MUCH AS 1000-1500 J/KG EAST. HOWEVER... WITH UNIFORM SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW THERE`S NOT MUCH TO TRIGGER/ENHANCE CONVECTION UNTIL LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON IN THE WEST WHEN A PREFRONTAL TROUGH BEGINS TO SHARPEN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  SEVERE POTENTIAL DEPENDS SOMEWHAT ON THE TIMING
BUT CURRENTLY LOOKS BEST LATE AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND EVENING IN
THE WEST AS BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO 40-45KT ...THOUGH THE TREND MAY
BE TO WEAKEN TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THE FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH THROUGH PRETTY QUICKLY FRIDAY
NIGHT AND BE EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLS
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES.  THE ECMWF SHOWS MORE
IN THE WAY OF HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US...BUT
SKIES HERE SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR.  THE GFS IS A TOUCH COOLER THAN
THE ECMWF FOR LOWS SUNDAY MORNING AND IS PREFERRED GIVEN 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES DROPPING WELL BE 1350M AND PRETTY GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS DESPITE THE HIGH STAYING TO OUR NORTH.  WILL GO
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S.

THE PATTERN FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS
SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO THE PATTERN THIS WEEK...WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE INNER MOUNTAIN WEST AND A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN US.  THE
MAIN DIFFERENCE MAY BE A LESSER DEGREE OF HEATING AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY THE ECMWF...WHICH HAD BEEN MUCH MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE
THAN THE GFS...WAS OVERALL DRIER ON THE 12Z RUN...WHICH IS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS/CANADIAN AND SEEMS TO FIT THE PATTERN A
LITTLE BETTER.  WILL ADJUST POPS  TO SHOW SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES IN
THE WEST VERSUS THE EAST....THOUGH KEEPING POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE
MONDAY AND LOW END CHANCE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY THICKNESSES ARE PROGGED
TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...20M OR SO...WHICH SUGGESTS AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80...A LITTLE WARMER EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM THURSDAY...

PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN NEXT 24 HRS: POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR CIGS
THROUGH LATE MORNING AT RWI/RDU WITH LESSER CHANCES AT GSO/INT/FAY.

A SMALL BUT POTENT STORM COMPLEX THAT MOVED SE OVER NRN AND ERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC THIS PAST EVENING HELPED DRAW A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SOUTHWESTWARD WELL INTO CENTRAL NC. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE
SHIFTING TO BE FROM THE EAST AND NE... AND LOW CLOUDS BASED UNDER
1000 FT AGL ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE VA
TOWARD THE SOUTH AND SW OVERNIGHT. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN IFR/LIFR
CIGS IS AT RWI FOLLOWED BY RDU THEN GSO/INT/FAY. A FEW ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK MAINLY OVER THE FAR
NORTH AND EAST... FROM GSO TO RDU/RWI/FAY... BUT MOST PLACES WILL
REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR BUT AT THIS
TIME DON`T LOOK LIKELY TO DROP DOWN TO IFR. CIGS SHOULD RISE TO MVFR
BY LATE MORNING THEN TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH ANOTHER BATCH
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ORIENTED NW TO SE OVER CENTRAL NC
DEVELOPING BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECISELY
WHERE THESE STORMS MIGHT FORM AND WHEN... AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOWER-THAN-EXPECTED COVERAGE... PRECLUDES MENTIONING THEM IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME. BUT AVIATORS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE POSSIBILITY
OF STORMS... AND THE VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS AND SUB-VFR DOWNPOURS THAT
OFTEN ACCOMPANY THEM... BOTH IN THE PREDAWN HOURS AND THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. PATCHY FOG AND AREAS OF IFR/LIFR STRATUS
ARE LIKELY TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD PARTICULARLY IN
THOSE LOCATIONS THAT SEE PRECIPITATION TODAY.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY FRI MORNING: SUB-VFR STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK FRI... BEFORE MIXING UP TO VFR BY
MID MORNING. A BREEZE FROM THE SW AT 10-20 KT RAMPING UP TOWARD
MIDDAY FRI MAY GUST UP TO AROUND 25 KTS FRI AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
OCCUR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SE THROUGH
CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 00Z AND 09Z SAT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IS LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM MID
AFTERNOON FRI THROUGH FRI NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FROM SAT
MORNING THROUGH MON... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDATLANTIC
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY MON. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 323 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE A
QUIET TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

CURRENTLY...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND A STRONG S/WV MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. LARGE CU FIELD DEVELOPING AS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW SHOWERS POPPING UP WITHIN THE
CU AS THE HRRR AND 4KM WRF ADVERTISED. DOUBTFUL MUCH WILL REACH
THE GROUND BUT WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST NOW THROUGH
03Z. WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30KTS AS WE MIX TO AROUND 700MB AND
SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND SUNDOWN...THEN DISSIPATE QUICKLY.
WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE SHOWER ACTIVITY...AIDED WITH
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING BENEATH THE CLOUD BASES AS PRECIPITATION
FALLS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT
CLEARING THE SKY. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES SOUTH AND EAST FRIDAY
ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW/WAA INTO THE REGION. DECENT DAY FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND A RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKY.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM INCLUDE STRONG AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY - WITH POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES - AND AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH SETTING UP FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE AREA TO THE EAST
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND APPROACHES
NORTH DAKOTA. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPANDS
EASTWARD AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. MEANWHILE A SURFACE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

SATURDAY NIGHT: UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REACHES NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF AND
ALONG AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST.

SUNDAY: THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY...AND
65 TO 75 TUESDAY.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EMERGES IN
THE WESTERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...CROSSING THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE DURING THIS TIME...WITH
HIGHS 50 TO 60 WEDNESDAY...AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. LARGE
BUT SHALLOW CUMULUS CANOPY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED NEAR 20KTS AND GUSTS TO 30 KTS
WILL BE COMMON THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AROUND AND AFTER SUNSET...WITH THE CUMULUS DISSIPATING
AS WELL WITH SKC TO FOLLOW TONIGHT. WILL INCLUDE A VCSH FOR
KDIK-KBIS-KJMS WHERE IT APPEARS THE CU FIELD LINGER THE LONGEST
THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

SUNDAY: STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH
POSSIBLE. HIGHS OF 55 TO 60 EXPECTED...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT SOUTHWEST TO AROUND 25 PERCENT
NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH. RECENT RAIN AND SNOWFALL OVER THE REGION IS
NOTED...AND WEATHER DORMANT GRASSES WILL HAVE TIME TO DRY OUT IS THE
MAIN QUESTION.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...NH
FIRE WEATHER...JV






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 1226 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

FORECAST ON TRACK...NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ISSUANCE. CU
FIELD DEVELOPMENT UNDERWAY...AND SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.


UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1022 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR ALONG WITH THE 4KM WRF ALL INDICATE
ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE ADDED THIS INTO
THE FORECAST. KEPT QPF AT ZERO AS ONLY EXPECTED TRACE AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE.

OTHERWISE THE INHERITED FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. CU FIELD SHOULD
DEVELOP BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ALONG TO AHEAD OF A SFC COLD
FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. WINDS STILL LOOK
BREEZY...ESPECIALLY MID TO LATE DAY WHEN WE ARE PROJECTED TO MIX
OUT TO AROUND 700MB. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL AID IN GUSTY WINDS
WITH EVAPORATIONAL COOLING BENEATH THE CLOUD BASES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

PRECIPITATION IS MOVING OUT OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA. HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOUR OVER MAINLY DICKEY COUNTY.
OTHERWISE DRY ELSEWHERE FOR THIS MORNING. COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON...SEE DISCUSSION BELOW...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP IT
DRY. MADE SOME MINOR UPDATES TO SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM IS A TRANSITION FROM SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT EARLY THIS MORNING TO A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW LATER TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW POPCORN TYPE SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP
AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THE LATEST HRRR CEILING FORECAST SHOWS A FAIRLY LARGE
CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z THROUGH 00Z. HOWEVER THE DEPTH
OF THE CUMULUS FIELD PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS LOOKS SHALLOW TO SUPPORT
MUCH PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY. THE NET EFFECT MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE
WIND GUSTS BRIEFLY WITH ANY EVAPORATIONAL COOLING BENEATH THE
CLOUD BASE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A WELL ESTABLISHED MIXED LAYER
TODAY...WHEREAS THE PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAD THIS WELL COVERED. THUS
EXPECT BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS WITH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON. IN TERMS OF POPS TODAY...FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED THEM
TO 14 FOR THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL AND WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT
RE-EVALUATE THE MORNING DATA AS TO WHETHER OR NOT TO ADD A FEW
POPCORN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR THE NEAR TERM...THROUGH 12Z-15Z THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES TO WANE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER LOW ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING IS SHIFTING THE BEST LIFT FARTHER EAST.
CURRENT FOG/STRATUS LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. THIS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH
UPPER FLOW INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IS SLOWLY WEAKENING...AS A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING THROUGH NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL PUSH THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE
FARTHER EAST WITH THE EROSION OF STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH
MID MORNING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SEEN NEAR THE NORTHEAST BORDER OF
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WILL SHIFT INTO LAKE MANITOBA BY 18Z
THURSDAY AND THEN DIVE SOUTH INTO FAR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z
FRIDAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE.
EXPECT LOW LEVEL WARMING TODAY AHEAD OF IT WITH H85 TEMPS RISING
TO BETWEEN +2C AND +4C ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO
THE 50S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE NAM/ECMWF
AGREE WITH SOME POTENTIAL OF A SHOWER OR TWO IN NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THE HI RESOLUTION ARW WEST AND NMM
WEST ALSO SHOW A FEW LIGHT MEASURABLE QPF STRIATIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH ANY DEVELOPMENT
AND LOCATION AT THIS TIME...THUS WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AND MONITOR
THE DATA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL
SLIDE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY A
CLEARING SKY AROUND SUNSET...AS ANY CUMULUS WILL COLLAPSE AND
DISSIPATE QUICKLY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE LATE IN THE
PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING FROM THE WESTERN
U.S. INTO THE PLAINS. BEFORE THAT...RATHER QUIET BUT WITH A FEW
POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATE PERIOD SYSTEM. IN GENERAL ECMWF HAS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS. ENSEMBLE SPREAD HAS ALSO
NARROWED SOME...BUT GFSENSEMBLE IS STILL GIVING A RATHER LARGE
ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW
AT 12 UTC THURSDAY. THUS WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLEND
SOLUTION.

FRIDAY SHOULD BE A NICE DAY...BUT DID DROP TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A WAVE DROPPING DOWN THE BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE DROPS ALMOST DUE SOUTH ACROSS MINNESOTA DRAGGING SOME COOLER
AIR SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS STILL MAINLY IN THE 50S. WE
WARM NICELY ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING MOVE EAST AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW KICKS IN. WE DO SEE
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S SOUTH AND WEST OF
LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND THE MISSOURI RIVER. HOWEVER...WINDS AT THE TOP OF
THE MIXING LAYER ARE GENERALLY 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN
EYE ON...BUT FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS
LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ONLY INCREASES IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT. DO EXPECT SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WITH POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS REACHING THE GROUND
BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. IT WILL REMAIN WINDY THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY. WE STILL SEE
SOME LOWER 20 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. THESE HUMIDITIES...COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS WILL
RESULT IN HIGHER FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY AND RECENT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITING FACTORS...BUT WITH
STRONG WINDS AND NEAR 20 PERCENT HUMIDITIES...WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO
MONITOR.

LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE ECMWF DOES SHOW SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY...BUT HAS BACKED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY ON
THE COLD WET TUESDAY SOLUTION OF 24 HOURS AGO...AND IS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE WARMER AND DRIER GFS. HOWEVER...BEYOND TUESDAY THERE
REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
AS IT TRANSLATES THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND ONTO THE PLAINS. THUS WILL
UTILIZE THE MODEL BLEND SOLUTION FOR POPS. IT LOOKS TO BE MILD
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO 70S.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN COOL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT ARE LOOKING TO BE COOL AND WET...BUT HOW COOL AND
HOW WET ARE YET TO BE DETERMINED. DEFINITELY AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IN
STORE MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

ALL TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FAIRLY LARGE
BUT SHALLOW CUMULUS CANOPY WILL FORM ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15KT TO 25 KT WILL ALSO BE COMMON THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET...WITH THE CUMULUS
DISSIPATING AS WELL WITH SKC TO FOLLOW THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL
INCLUDE A VCSH FOR SOME TERMINALS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...NH







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 1022 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 1022 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR ALONG WITH THE 4KM WRF ALL INDICATE
ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE ADDED THIS INTO
THE FORECAST. KEPT QPF AT ZERO AS ONLY EXPECTED TRACE AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE.

OTHERWISE THE INHERITED FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. CU FIELD SHOULD
DEVELOP BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ALONG TO AHEAD OF A SFC COLD
FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. WINDS STILL LOOK
BREEZY...ESPECIALLY MID TO LATE DAY WHEN WE ARE PROJECTED TO MIX
OUT TO AROUND 700MB. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL AID IN GUSTY WINDS
WITH EVAPORATIONAL COOLING BENEATH THE CLOUD BASES.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

PRECIPITATION IS MOVING OUT OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA. HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOUR OVER MAINLY DICKEY COUNTY.
OTHERWISE DRY ELSEWHERE FOR THIS MORNING. COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON...SEE DISCUSSION BELOW...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP IT
DRY. MADE SOME MINOR UPDATES TO SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM IS A TRANSITION FROM SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT EARLY THIS MORNING TO A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW LATER TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW POPCORN TYPE SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP
AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THE LATEST HRRR CEILING FORECAST SHOWS A FAIRLY LARGE
CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z THROUGH 00Z. HOWEVER THE DEPTH
OF THE CUMULUS FIELD PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS LOOKS SHALLOW TO SUPPORT
MUCH PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY. THE NET EFFECT MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE
WIND GUSTS BRIEFLY WITH ANY EVAPORATIONAL COOLING BENEATH THE
CLOUD BASE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A WELL ESTABLISHED MIXED LAYER
TODAY...WHEREAS THE PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAD THIS WELL COVERED. THUS
EXPECT BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS WITH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON. IN TERMS OF POPS TODAY...FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED THEM
TO 14 FOR THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL AND WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT
RE-EVALUATE THE MORNING DATA AS TO WHETHER OR NOT TO ADD A FEW
POPCORN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR THE NEAR TERM...THROUGH 12Z-15Z THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES TO WANE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER LOW ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING IS SHIFTING THE BEST LIFT FARTHER EAST.
CURRENT FOG/STRATUS LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. THIS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH
UPPER FLOW INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IS SLOWLY WEAKENING...AS A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING THROUGH NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL PUSH THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE
FARTHER EAST WITH THE EROSION OF STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH
MID MORNING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SEEN NEAR THE NORTHEAST BORDER OF
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WILL SHIFT INTO LAKE MANITOBA BY 18Z
THURSDAY AND THEN DIVE SOUTH INTO FAR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z
FRIDAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE.
EXPECT LOW LEVEL WARMING TODAY AHEAD OF IT WITH H85 TEMPS RISING
TO BETWEEN +2C AND +4C ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO
THE 50S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE NAM/ECMWF
AGREE WITH SOME POTENTIAL OF A SHOWER OR TWO IN NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THE HI RESOLUTION ARW WEST AND NMM
WEST ALSO SHOW A FEW LIGHT MEASURABLE QPF STRIATIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH ANY DEVELOPMENT
AND LOCATION AT THIS TIME...THUS WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AND MONITOR
THE DATA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL
SLIDE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY A
CLEARING SKY AROUND SUNSET...AS ANY CUMULUS WILL COLLAPSE AND
DISSIPATE QUICKLY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE LATE IN THE
PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING FROM THE WESTERN
U.S. INTO THE PLAINS. BEFORE THAT...RATHER QUIET BUT WITH A FEW
POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATE PERIOD SYSTEM. IN GENERAL ECMWF HAS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS. ENSEMBLE SPREAD HAS ALSO
NARROWED SOME...BUT GFSENSEMBLE IS STILL GIVING A RATHER LARGE
ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW
AT 12 UTC THURSDAY. THUS WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLEND
SOLUTION.

FRIDAY SHOULD BE A NICE DAY...BUT DID DROP TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A WAVE DROPPING DOWN THE BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE DROPS ALMOST DUE SOUTH ACROSS MINNESOTA DRAGGING SOME COOLER
AIR SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS STILL MAINLY IN THE 50S. WE
WARM NICELY ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING MOVE EAST AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW KICKS IN. WE DO SEE
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S SOUTH AND WEST OF
LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND THE MISSOURI RIVER. HOWEVER...WINDS AT THE TOP OF
THE MIXING LAYER ARE GENERALLY 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN
EYE ON...BUT FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS
LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ONLY INCREASES IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT. DO EXPECT SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WITH POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS REACHING THE GROUND
BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. IT WILL REMAIN WINDY THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY. WE STILL SEE
SOME LOWER 20 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. THESE HUMIDITIES...COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS WILL
RESULT IN HIGHER FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY AND RECENT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITING FACTORS...BUT WITH
STRONG WINDS AND NEAR 20 PERCENT HUMIDITIES...WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO
MONITOR.

LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE ECMWF DOES SHOW SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY...BUT HAS BACKED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY ON
THE COLD WET TUESDAY SOLUTION OF 24 HOURS AGO...AND IS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE WARMER AND DRIER GFS. HOWEVER...BEYOND TUESDAY THERE
REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
AS IT TRANSLATES THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND ONTO THE PLAINS. THUS WILL
UTILIZE THE MODEL BLEND SOLUTION FOR POPS. IT LOOKS TO BE MILD
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO 70S.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN COOL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT ARE LOOKING TO BE COOL AND WET...BUT HOW COOL AND
HOW WET ARE YET TO BE DETERMINED. DEFINITELY AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IN
STORE MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)

ISSUED AT 1022 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

ALL TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FAIRLY LARGE
BUT SHALLOW CUMULUS CANOPY WILL FORM ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15KT TO 25 KT WILL ALSO BE COMMON THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET...WITH THE CUMULUS
DISSIPATING AS WELL WITH SKC TO FOLLOW THURSDAY NIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH/NH







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 631 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

PRECIPITATION IS MOVING OUT OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA. HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOUR OVER MAINLY DICKEY COUNTY.
OTHERWISE DRY ELSEWHERE FOR THIS MORNING. COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON...SEE DISCUSSION BELOW...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP IT
DRY. MADE SOME MINOR UPDATES TO SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS MORNING.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM IS A TRANSITION FROM SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT EARLY THIS MORNING TO A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW LATER TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW POPCORN TYPE SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP
AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THE LATEST HRRR CEILING FORECAST SHOWS A FAIRLY LARGE
CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z THROUGH 00Z. HOWEVER THE DEPTH
OF THE CUMULUS FIELD PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS LOOKS SHALLOW TO SUPPORT
MUCH PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY. THE NET EFFECT MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE
WIND GUSTS BRIEFLY WITH ANY EVAPORATIONAL COOLING BENEATH THE
CLOUD BASE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A WELL ESTABLISHED MIXED LAYER
TODAY...WHEREAS THE PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAD THIS WELL COVERED. THUS
EXPECT BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS WITH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON. IN TERMS OF POPS TODAY...FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED THEM
TO 14 FOR THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL AND WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT
RE-EVALUATE THE MORNING DATA AS TO WHETHER OR NOT TO ADD A FEW
POPCORN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR THE NEAR TERM...THROUGH 12Z-15Z THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES TO WANE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER LOW ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING IS SHIFTING THE BEST LIFT FARTHER EAST.
CURRENT FOG/STRATUS LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. THIS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH
UPPER FLOW INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IS SLOWLY WEAKENING...AS A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING THROUGH NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL PUSH THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE
FARTHER EAST WITH THE EROSION OF STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH
MID MORNING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SEEN NEAR THE NORTHEAST BORDER OF
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WILL SHIFT INTO LAKE MANITOBA BY 18Z
THURSDAY AND THEN DIVE SOUTH INTO FAR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z
FRIDAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE.
EXPECT LOW LEVEL WARMING TODAY AHEAD OF IT WITH H85 TEMPS RISING
TO BETWEEN +2C AND +4C ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO
THE 50S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE NAM/ECMWF
AGREE WITH SOME POTENTIAL OF A SHOWER OR TWO IN NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THE HI RESOLUTION ARW WEST AND NMM
WEST ALSO SHOW A FEW LIGHT MEASURABLE QPF STRIATIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH ANY DEVELOPMENT
AND LOCATION AT THIS TIME...THUS WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AND MONITOR
THE DATA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL
SLIDE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY A
CLEARING SKY AROUND SUNSET...AS ANY CUMULUS WILL COLLAPSE AND
DISSIPATE QUICKLY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE LATE IN THE
PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING FROM THE WESTERN
U.S. INTO THE PLAINS. BEFORE THAT...RATHER QUIET BUT WITH A FEW
POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATE PERIOD SYSTEM. IN GENERAL ECMWF HAS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS. ENSEMBLE SPREAD HAS ALSO
NARROWED SOME...BUT GFSENSEMBLE IS STILL GIVING A RATHER LARGE
ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW
AT 12 UTC THURSDAY. THUS WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLEND
SOLUTION.

FRIDAY SHOULD BE A NICE DAY...BUT DID DROP TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A WAVE DROPPING DOWN THE BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE DROPS ALMOST DUE SOUTH ACROSS MINNESOTA DRAGGING SOME COOLER
AIR SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS STILL MAINLY IN THE 50S. WE
WARM NICELY ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING MOVE EAST AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW KICKS IN. WE DO SEE
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S SOUTH AND WEST OF
LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND THE MISSOURI RIVER. HOWEVER...WINDS AT THE TOP OF
THE MIXING LAYER ARE GENERALLY 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN
EYE ON...BUT FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS
LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ONLY INCREASES IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT. DO EXPECT SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WITH POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS REACHING THE GROUND
BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. IT WILL REMAIN WINDY THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY. WE STILL SEE
SOME LOWER 20 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. THESE HUMIDITIES...COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS WILL
RESULT IN HIGHER FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY AND RECENT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITING FACTORS...BUT WITH
STRONG WINDS AND NEAR 20 PERCENT HUMIDITIES...WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO
MONITOR.

LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE ECMWF DOES SHOW SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY...BUT HAS BACKED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY ON
THE COLD WET TUESDAY SOLUTION OF 24 HOURS AGO...AND IS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE WARMER AND DRIER GFS. HOWEVER...BEYOND TUESDAY THERE
REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
AS IT TRANSLATES THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND ONTO THE PLAINS. THUS WILL
UTILIZE THE MODEL BLEND SOLUTION FOR POPS. IT LOOKS TO BE MILD
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO 70S.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN COOL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT ARE LOOKING TO BE COOL AND WET...BUT HOW COOL AND
HOW WET ARE YET TO BE DETERMINED. DEFINITELY AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IN
STORE MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

VFR CIGS WILL RETURN TO KDIK BETWEEN 12Z AND 13Z THURSDAY...AND
MAY BE IN AND OUT THROUGH 15Z WITH SOME SCATTERED IFR CEILING IN
THE NEIGHBORHOOD. THE REST OF THE TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR. A
FAIRLY LARGE BUT SHALLOW CUMULUS CANOPY WILL FORM ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15KT TO 25 KT WILL ALSO BE COMMON THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET...WITH THE CUMULUS
DISSIPATING AS WELL WITH SKC TO FOLLOW THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 355 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM IS A TRANSITION FROM SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT EARLY THIS MORNING TO A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW LATER TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW POPCORN TYPE SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP
AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THE LATEST HRRR CEILING FORECAST SHOWS A FAIRLY LARGE
CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z THROUGH 00Z. HOWEVER THE DEPTH
OF THE CUMULUS FIELD PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS LOOKS SHALLOW TO SUPPORT
MUCH PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY. THE NET EFFECT MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE
WIND GUSTS BRIEFLY WITH ANY EVAPORATIONAL COOLING BENEATH THE
CLOUD BASE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A WELL ESTABLISHED MIXED LAYER
TODAY...WHEREAS THE PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAD THIS WELL COVERED. THUS
EXPECT BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS WITH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON. IN TERMS OF POPS TODAY...FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED THEM
TO 14 FOR THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL AND WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT
RE-EVALUATE THE MORNING DATA AS TO WHETHER OR NOT TO ADD A FEW
POPCORN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR THE NEAR TERM...THROUGH 12Z-15Z THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES TO WANE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER LOW ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING IS SHIFTING THE BEST LIFT FARTHER EAST.
CURRENT FOG/STRATUS LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. THIS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH
UPPER FLOW INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IS SLOWLY WEAKENING...AS A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING THROUGH NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL PUSH THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE
FARTHER EAST WITH THE EROSION OF STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH
MID MORNING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SEEN NEAR THE NORTHEAST BORDER OF
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WILL SHIFT INTO LAKE MANITOBA BY 18Z
THURSDAY AND THEN DIVE SOUTH INTO FAR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z
FRIDAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE.
EXPECT LOW LEVEL WARMING TODAY AHEAD OF IT WITH H85 TEMPS RISING
TO BETWEEN +2C AND +4C ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO
THE 50S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE NAM/ECMWF
AGREE WITH SOME POTENTIAL OF A SHOWER OR TWO IN NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THE HI RESOLUTION ARW WEST AND NMM
WEST ALSO SHOW A FEW LIGHT MEASURABLE QPF STRIATIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH ANY DEVELOPMENT
AND LOCATION AT THIS TIME...THUS WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AND MONITOR
THE DATA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL
SLIDE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY A
CLEARING SKY AROUND SUNSET...AS ANY CUMULUS WILL COLLAPSE AND
DISSIPATE QUICKLY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE LATE IN THE
PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING FROM THE WESTERN
U.S. INTO THE PLAINS. BEFORE THAT...RATHER QUIET BUT WITH A FEW
POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATE PERIOD SYSTEM. IN GENERAL ECMWF HAS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS. ENSEMBLE SPREAD HAS ALSO
NARROWED SOME...BUT GFSENSEMBLE IS STILL GIVING A RATHER LARGE
ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW
AT 12 UTC THURSDAY. THUS WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLEND
SOLUTION.

FRIDAY SHOULD BE A NICE DAY...BUT DID DROP TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A WAVE DROPPING DOWN THE BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE DROPS ALMOST DUE SOUTH ACROSS MINNESOTA DRAGGING SOME COOLER
AIR SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS STILL MAINLY IN THE 50S. WE
WARM NICELY ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING MOVE EAST AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW KICKS IN. WE DO SEE
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S SOUTH AND WEST OF
LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND THE MISSOURI RIVER. HOWEVER...WINDS AT THE TOP OF
THE MIXING LAYER ARE GENERALLY 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN
EYE ON...BUT FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS
LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ONLY INCREASES IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT. DO EXPECT SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WITH POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS REACHING THE GROUND
BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. IT WILL REMAIN WINDY THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY. WE STILL SEE
SOME LOWER 20 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. THESE HUMIDITIES...COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS WILL
RESULT IN HIGHER FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY AND RECENT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITING FACTORS...BUT WITH
STRONG WINDS AND NEAR 20 PERCENT HUMIDITIES...WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO
MONITOR.

LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE ECMWF DOES SHOW SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY...BUT HAS BACKED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY ON
THE COLD WET TUESDAY SOLUTION OF 24 HOURS AGO...AND IS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE WARMER AND DRIER GFS. HOWEVER...BEYOND TUESDAY THERE
REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
AS IT TRANSLATES THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND ONTO THE PLAINS. THUS WILL
UTILIZE THE MODEL BLEND SOLUTION FOR POPS. IT LOOKS TO BE MILD
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO 70S.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN COOL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT ARE LOOKING TO BE COOL AND WET...BUT HOW COOL AND
HOW WET ARE YET TO BE DETERMINED. DEFINITELY AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IN
STORE MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE AT KDIK THROUGH 14Z BEFORE
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR BY 16Z-17Z. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
POSSIBLE AT KBIS/KJMS THROUGH 14Z. MVFR VSBYS ALSO POSSIBLE AT
KISN/KMOT AS SURROUNDING SITES SUCH AS WATFORD CITY AND TIOGA
REPORTING VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 2SM AND 6SM. ALL TERMINALS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN TOWARD VFR STATUS BY 15Z-17Z TODAY. EXPECT A
FAIRLY LARGE BUT SHALLOW CUMULUS FORMATION ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. THE CUMULUS
WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET WITH A CLEAR SKY TO FOLLOW
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

 625 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
DROP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATED FORECAST TO ALLOW FOR A LITTLE SUNSHINE IN NW OHIO. THE
LOCAL AREA IS CURRENTLY PRETTY QUIET. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF
CONVECTION NEAR CINCINNATI HOLDS TOGETHER. OTHER STORMS COULD ALSO
DEVELOP THIS EVENING IN THE WEST BUT EXPECTED THE BRUNT OF THE
PRECIP TONIGHT TO OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

PREVIOUS...USED A MIX OF THE HRRR AND SREF FOR TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO SHIFTING NORTHEAST
QUICKLY AND IS NOW MAINLY IN NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA. ANOTHER AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL. NOT A LOT OCCURRING
IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH DO EXPECT SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP/MOVE IN. THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WILL
SHIFT HIGH POPS NORTH OF THE AREA FOR A SHORT WHILE DROPPING MOST
TO CHANCE. AFTER MIDNIGHT COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
WILL HAVE CAT POPS COMING BACK FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND THEN WILL
ATTEMPT TO MOVE THIS EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHILE
ALSO MOVING DRYING IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY MORNING 12Z THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF KCLE WITH
DRYING MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WILL HANG ONTO A CHANCE OF THUNDER
EAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING BUT EXPECT PRECIP TO
END BY LATE MORNING. WILL ALLOW FOR SS TO BREAK THROUGH DURING THE
DAY BUT AM STILL A BIT SKEPTICAL GIVEN LOW LEVEL RH REMAINING
ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER BIG CONCERN FOR FRIDAY WILL BE WINDS.
850MB FLOW INCREASES TO 50 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH
40-45 KNOTS AT 925MB. THIS CONTINUES POST COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME
IT DOESNT LOOK LIKE WARNING LEVELS WILL BE REACHED BUT COULD
REQUIRE A WIND ADVISORY. IF THIS CONTINUES WILL LIKELY ISSUE ON
THE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT FORECAST PACKAGE. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVING
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL
BRING CLOUDS BACK AS WELL AS A SMALL CHANCE POPS. DRY AIR AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING SE ACROSS THE
AREA MON SO WILL MAINTAIN DECENT THREAT FOR SHRA. THE FRONT IS SHOWN
TO MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE AREA TO PROBABLY ALLOW FOR DRY
CONDITIONS ON TUE WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. WED THRU
FRI...A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL DRIFT NE CAUSING
A LOW TO LIFT NE TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN BY LATE FRI. THE STALLED
FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT
PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SHRA AND TSRA TO START SPREADING NE OVER THE
AREA WED INTO WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE ON THU...AND PROBABLY FOR
SEVERAL MOVE DAYS AFTER THAT. TEMPS UNCERTAIN AS THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE CWA MAY SEE NE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THUS PRODUCING A COOL
FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE WHILE THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES HAVE A GOOD CHANCE
OF SEEING TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S ANY MAYBE SOME 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA INTO FRI
MORNING UNTIL A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA TO END THE THREAT.
WIDESPREAD VFR SHOULD BE THE PREDOMINATE CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THE
CONVECTION WITH AREAS OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR IN THE HEAVIER TSRA. SOUTH
TO SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT TO BE GUSTING
25 TO 35 KNOTS TONIGHT WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 KNOTS ON FRI. THE
STRONGER TSRA CAN EASILY PRODUCE GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS WITH SOME LARGE
HAIL POSSIBLE.

.OUTLOOK..SOME NON VFR POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN OH/NW PA LATE FRIDAY AND
FRI NIGHT THEN JUST NW PA FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. NON VFR
POSSIBLE AGAIN FOR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS LAKE ERIE LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING AND THE FOLLOWING COLD ADVECTION SHOULD BE ABLE TO
PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS FOR A WHILE. WILL GO WITH LOW END GALES FOR
A WHILE ON FRI. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS TO WEAKEN LATER
FRI INTO FRI NIGHT SO WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY START DIMINISHING THEN
BECOME LIGHT BY SAT EVE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS OHIO INTO PA.

A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD SET UP IN THE WAKE OF THE HIGH FOR
SUN INCREASING TO ABOUT 10 TO 20 KNOTS FOR SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES THE LAKE MON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
BUILDS IN BY MON NIGHT SO WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND SHOULD STAY FAIRLY
LIGHT THRU TUE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR OHZ029>032-
     036>038-047.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEZ061-142>149-
     162>169.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

 340 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
DROP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
USED A MIX OF THE HRRR AND SREF FOR TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO SHIFTING NORTHEAST QUICKLY
AND IS NOW MAINLY IN NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA. ANOTHER AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL. NOT A LOT OCCURRING
IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH DO EXPECT SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP/MOVE IN. THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WILL
SHIFT HIGH POPS NORTH OF THE AREA FOR A SHORT WHILE DROPPING MOST
TO CHANCE. AFTER MIDNIGHT COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
WILL HAVE CAT POPS COMING BACK FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND THEN WILL
ATTEMPT TO MOVE THIS EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHILE
ALSO MOVING DRYING IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY MORNING 12Z THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF KCLE WITH
DRYING MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WILL HANG ONTO A CHANCE OF THUNDER
EAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING BUT EXPECT PRECIP TO
END BY LATE MORNING. WILL ALLOW FOR SS TO BREAK THROUGH DURING THE
DAY BUT AM STILL A BIT SKEPTICAL GIVEN LOW LEVEL RH REMAINING
ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER BIG CONCERN FOR FRIDAY WILL BE WINDS.
850MB FLOW INCREASES TO 50 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH
40-45 KNOTS AT 925MB. THIS CONTINUES POST COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME
IT DOESNT LOOK LIKE WARNING LEVELS WILL BE REACHED BUT COULD
REQUIRE A WIND ADVISORY. IF THIS CONTINUES WILL LIKELY ISSUE ON
THE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT FORECAST PACKAGE. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVING
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL
BRING CLOUDS BACK AS WELL AS A SMALL CHANCE POPS. DRY AIR AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.



&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING SE ACROSS THE
AREA MON SO WILL MAINTAIN DECENT THREAT FOR SHRA. THE FRONT IS SHOWN
TO MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE AREA TO PROBABLY ALLOW FOR DRY
CONDITIONS ON TUE WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. WED THRU
FRI...A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL DRIFT NE CAUSING
A LOW TO LIFT NE TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN BY LATE FRI. THE STALLED
FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT
PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SHRA AND TSRA TO START SPREADING NE OVER THE
AREA WED INTO WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE ON THU...AND PROBABLY FOR
SEVERAL MOVE DAYS AFTER THAT. TEMPS UNCERTAIN AS THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE CWA MAY SEE NE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THUS PRODUCING A COOL
FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE WHILE THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES HAVE A GOOD CHANCE
OF SEEING TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S ANY MAYBE SOME 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA INTO FRI
MORNING UNTIL A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA TO END THE THREAT.
WIDESPREAD VFR SHOULD BE THE PREDOMINATE CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THE
CONVECTION WITH AREAS OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR IN THE HEAVIER TSRA. SOUTH
TO SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT TO BE GUSTING
25 TO 35 KNOTS TONIGHT WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 KNOTS ON FRI. THE
STRONGER TSRA CAN EASILY PRODUCE GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS WITH SOME LARGE
HAIL POSSIBLE.

.OUTLOOK..SOME NON VFR POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN OH/NW PA LATE FRIDAY AND
FRI NIGHT THEN JUST NW PA FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. NON VFR
POSSIBLE AGAIN FOR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS LAKE ERIE LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING AND THE FOLLOWING COLD ADVECTION SHOULD BE ABLE TO
PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS FOR A WHILE. WILL GO WITH LOW END GALES FOR
A WHILE ON FRI. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS TO WEAKEN LATER
FRI INTO FRI NIGHT SO WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY START DIMINISHING THEN
BECOME LIGHT BY SAT EVE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS OHIO INTO PA.

A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD SET UP IN THE WAKE OF THE HIGH FOR
SUN INCREASING TO ABOUT 10 TO 20 KNOTS FOR SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES THE LAKE MON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
BUILDS IN BY MON NIGHT SO WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND SHOULD STAY FAIRLY
LIGHT THRU TUE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR OHZ029>032-
     036>038-047.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEZ061-142>149-
     162>169.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

 253 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. COLD FRONT
CROSSES FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. COLD FRONT APPROACHES
AND THEN STALLS FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
YET ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST...HOWEVER
THE MEAN FLOW TODAY LOOKS TO KEEP THE STRONGEST STORMS TO OUR
WEST...OR JUST CLIPPING THE WESTERN CWA. THE HIGHEST ML CAPE
REMAINS WEST OF CWA...AND WOULD EXPECT STRONGEST STORMS TO STICK
CLOSER TO THIS. WE ARE STILL FIRMLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
HOWEVER WITH CONVECTION POPPING UP ACROSS WV SOUTHWEST INTO
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY...SO WILL STILL HAVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DRIFTING NE ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...INTO THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH. THINK THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY WEST OF FORECAST AREA. IN
CWA BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF CWA...ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. USED THE HRRR TO
TIME THE BEST POPS...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
TOUGH TO GET EXACT. LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW IS GENERALLY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST...20-30KTS AROUND 925 MB...UP TO 50-60KTS AT 500MB. THIS
WILL KEEP THINGS MOVING WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH WATER CONCERNS.
MAIN CONCERN WATER-WISE WILL BE TRAINING CELLS...ESPECIALLY ALONG
ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT LINGER PARALLEL TO THE FLOW. NO REASON
TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. IN THE WETTER
AREAS...THAT WERE HIT LAST NIGHT BY HEAVY RAIN...IT WOULD LIKELY
ONLY TAKE 1-1.5 INCHES IN 3 HOURS OR LESS TO START CAUSING
PROBLEMS AGAIN...WHILE AREAS THAT HAVE NOT RECEIVED AS MUCH RAIN
OVER THE LAST DAY OR TWO IT WOULD TAKE 1.5-2 IN 3 HOURS.

TRIED TO SHOW A BREAK LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...AS
CONVECTION FROM THIS AFTERNOON EXITS TO THE NE...AND A COLD FRONT
FINALLY APPROACHES FROM THE WNW. STILL HAVE ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS MENTIONED THROUGH THE NIGHT...AS WE REMAIN IN THE
WARM SECTOR.

COLD FRONT ARRIVES TO WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY MORNING. GFS/ECMWF ARE
FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TIMING WITH THE FRONT...WHILE NAM LAGS BEHIND A
BIT. DID NOT CHANGE PREVIOUS FORECAST TIMING A WHOLE LOT...BUT DID
INCREASE POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT FORECAST OF A DRY AND MILD WEEKEND CONTINUES ONT RACK...AS
MODELS VERY CONSISTENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE OHIO
VALLEY. LOOK FOR NEAR SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BUT CHILLY
NIGHTS WITH A LARGE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS DEPICT ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MEANDERING BACK AND FORTH ACROSS
OUR REGION FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE SPECIFIC DETAILS MAY BE
DIFFERENT FOR EACH SYSTEM THAT RUNS ALONG THIS FRONT...THE GENERAL
SCENARIO IS FOR WARM...MOIST AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE
TO PRESENT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANYTIME FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. HARD TO TIME THESE INDIVIDUAL CELLS WITH NO REAL SURFACE
FEATURE TO FOCUS ON...SO WENT WITH VCTS AND ANTICIPATE AMENDMENTS
WILL BE NEEDED IF CELLS APPROACH INDIVIDUAL TAF SITES. MVFR TO IFR
WOULD BE POSSIBLE. BETTER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE S/SW THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH VARIABLE
AND GUSTY IN AND AROUND CONVECTION. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS/STORMS COULD
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS COULD STILL BE LINGERING ACROSS EAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-013-
     014-017-019-020.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR WVZ015-016-018-
     024>032-037>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ











AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

 1016 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. COLD FRONT
CROSSES FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. COLD FRONT APPROACHES
AND THEN STALLS FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE...AS WITH THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...THE HRRR IS
BEGINNING TO LATCH ON TO YET ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. HRRR DID FAIRLY WELL THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...SO USED
THAT TO UPDATE POPS THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECTING A COMPLEX TO
MOVE NE ACROSS CWA...WITH THE MAIN ACTIVITY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
OHIO RIVER...AND MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF
CWA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODELS SHOWING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING OVER NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH
MUCH OF THE AREA ALREADY SATURATED...FEEL THAT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
IS PRUDENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN WV COUNTIES IN OUR
FORECAST AREA. WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY...WILL GO
AHEAD AND EXTEND THE ENTIRE FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO FRIDAY.

BASED ON MESO MODELS SHOWING PRE-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WILL SPEED UP AND INCREASE
POPS SOME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
PREFRONTAL BAND WILL BE RACING THRU AREA EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT. HOPEFULLY THIS
PREFRONTAL BAND WILL BE ON A WEAKENING TREND AS IT COMES THRU
GIVEN TIME OF DAY AND SEPARATION FROM BETTER DYNAMICS. STILL...A
STOUT LLJ IS WORRISOME FOR DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THERE MAY BE SOME
REJUVENATION ALONG THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT BY THE TIME IT GETS INTO
THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY. MAY SEEM SOME SUN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AMID SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE DRY SLOT ALOFT. TRUE
CAA HOLDS OFF UNTIL SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROF SWINGS THRU. NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIP JUST AN EXPANSIVE STRATOCU FIELD...MOST
NOTICEABLE ACROSS N ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT
AND WITH A CLEAR SKY...THINK THERE COULD BE SOME FROST CONCERNS IN
THE LOWLANDS. WE HAVE NOT STARTED THE GROWING SEASON JUST YET...BUT
SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND FOR THOSE EAGER GREEN THUMBS. THE HIGH
SLIDES OFF TO THE E ON SUNDAY BUT STILL A NICE DAY WITH MILD
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WEEKEND
STARTS OUT WARM AND DRY...AND HIGH PRESSURE...SURFACE AND ALOFT
BUILDS IN. AN ACTIVE AND STORMY WEEK THEN TAKES HOLD NEXT WEEK...AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY...STALLS OUT ACROSS THE AREA
BRIEFLY...BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY
TUESDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE SET UP FOR
WARM...AND HUMID WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA...ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. FOR
NOW...BROAD BRUSHED POPS IN THE EXTENDED...WITH A DIURNAL TREND TO
CONVECTION/HIGHER POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH STRONGER STORMS PROVIDING IFR
RESTRICTIONS. SOME MVFR FOG/STRATUS IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING IN AREAS
RECENTLY RECEIVING RAINFALL. OUTSIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY
VFR CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS/STORMS COULD
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-013-
     014-017-019-020.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR WVZ015-016-018-
     024>032-037>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL/30
NEAR TERM...RPY/MZ
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...RPY








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

 139 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND THEN STALLS FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
830 PM UPDATE...
EXPANDED FFA FARTHER N TO ACCOUNT FOR WHERE COMPLEX IS COMING IN
FROM THE W...AND WENT ACROSS THE NRN TIER TO ACCOUNT FOR CONVECTION
ALONG THE 300K ISENTROPIC SFC GRADIENT H8-H85 THERE.

745 PM UPDATE...
UPDATED POPS FOR FASTER TIMING OF COMPLEX ENTERING AREA FROM THE
W...AND TO REFLECT BAND OF CONVECTION ALONG 300K ISENTROPIC SFC
GRADIENT H8-H85 ACROSS THE NRN TIER.

630 PM UPDATE...
UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT NEXT COMPLEX COMING INTO OUR SRN AND CENTRAL
ZONES AND THEN MOVING NEWD OVERNIGHT.  ALSO WW33 IS GONE.

PREV DISCN...
BUSY DAY WITH LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH CWA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH MCV PASSING JUST TO OUR NORTH
AND GOOD INFLOW INTO THE SOUTH. RELIED HEAVILY ON THE HRRR FOR
TIMING OF THE LINE...WHICH IS MOVING ESE AROUND 40KTS. THINGS
BECOME A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN TONIGHT...AS CONVECTION WILL BE
LINGERING AROUND A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD BE NEAR OUR SOUTHERN
CWA BORDER. HRRR SHOWING TWO SEPARATE COMPLEXES MOVING ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. GENERALLY HAVE GOTTEN AROUND A
HALF AN INCH IN TODAYS LINE OF CONVECTION...AND COULD GET ANOTHER
HALF TO ONE INCH OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE IT WOULD TAKE AROUND 1.5 INCHES
IN 3 HOURS TO START CREATING LOCAL PROBLEMS.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY
MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. IN THE UNSTABLE WARM
SECTOR...COULD AGAIN SEE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS APPROACH FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AS EXISTING FORECAST LOOKED DECENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
ACROSS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. LOTS OF JUICE AND
GOOD DYNAMICS WILL BRING A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS END FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING FRIDAY...WITH THE FRONT EXITING THE MOUNTAINS BY LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR A DRY
BUT COOLER START TO THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LOWER TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WEEKEND
STARTS OUT WARM AND DRY...AND HIGH PRESSURE...SURFACE AND ALOFT
BUILDS IN. AN ACTIVE AND STORMY WEEK THEN TAKES HOLD NEXT WEEK...AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY...STALLS OUT ACROSS THE AREA
BRIEFLY...BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY
TUESDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE SET UP FOR
WARM...AND HUMID WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA...ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. FOR
NOW...BROAD BRUSHED POPS IN THE EXTENDED...WITH A DIURNAL TREND TO
CONVECTION/HIGHER POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH STRONGER STORMS PROVIDING IFR
RESTRICTIONS. SOME MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING IN AREAS
RECENTLY RECEIVING RAINFALL. OUTSIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY
VFR CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS/STORMS COULD
VARY. UNCERTAIN ON POST-RAIN FOG FORMATION EARLY THIS MORNING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              THU 04/09/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>017-019-020-024>026-031.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-
     075-076-083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-
     105.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/MZ/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...RPY










AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PORTLAND

 846 AM PDT THU APR 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS TODAY WITH PERHAPS A SPOTTY SHOWER DEVELOPING OVER THE
HIGHER CASCADE TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN
DRY DURING THE DAY FOR MOST OF THE REGION...BUT CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL
SPREAD INTO THE REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A
COOL SHOWERY PATTERN WILL FOLLOW ON SATURDAY WITH MOST OF THE AREA
LOOKING DRY ON SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER COOL AND WET STORM
SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER BEGINNING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...FOG CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE VALLEYS THIS
MORNING AND ALTHOUGH PATCHES OF DENSE FOG REMAIN...IMPROVEMENT IN
VISIBILITY IS ALREADY BEING SEEN AT SOME AREA OBSERVATION SITES.
EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE BOARD BY LATE MORNING. NO
MAJOR UPDATES NEEDED THIS MORNING AS THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK. TWEAKED NEAR-TERM SKY GRIDS A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR FOG AND THEN
AFTERNOON CLEARING. THE 12Z GFS IS HINTING AT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BOTH HRRR
AND RUC KEEP ANY POPS IN THE CASCADES AND MAYBE FOOTHILLS SO WILL
KEEP POP/WX FORECAST AS IS THROUGH THIS EVENING. BOWEN

.SHORT TERM (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUDS
SCATTERED ABOUT THE REGION...WITH MOST HUGGING THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS.
SOME PATCHY FOG IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE
VALLEY...AND EXPECT ADDITIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING AS THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AND SATURATES...PARTICULARLY AROUND
EUGENE...CORVALLIS...MCMINNVILLE AND HILLSBORO.

A VORT MAX AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HANG OVER THE
COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN TODAY. THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES AND NORTH
OREGON CASCADES WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO THIS INSTABILITY THAT A
SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWER MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THESE
SHOULD REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED AND MORE NUISANCE IN NATURE.
OTHERWISE...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES RISING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ONCE THE FOG BURNS
OFF MID TO LATE MORNING.

FRIDAY LOOKS LARGELY DRY ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES
RAIN INTO OUR NORTHWEST COAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. RAIN
WILL LIKELY PUSH INLAND DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND DEEPER INSTABILITY WITH THIS FRONT
WILL JUST CLIP OUR NORTHERN ZONES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING SO THERE IS SOME CONCERN THE CURRENT QPF FORECAST MAY BE A
BIT TOO HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ON SATURDAY SHOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS BEFORE THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AND PRECIPITATIONS CHANCES
RAPIDLY DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS THE INSTABILITY WILL BE
SHALLOW ENOUGH THAT THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY ON SATURDAY
EVEN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS THE IDEA THAT SUNDAY WILL END UP
LARGELY DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SO POPS WERE NUDGED
DOWNWARD DURING THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.
A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH MAY PUSH INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON DURING THIS
PERIOD AND BRING A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO EXTREME NORTHWEST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON COASTAL AND COAST RANGE ZONES SO
CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED ACROSS THESE ZONES DURING THIS
PERIOD. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING ON THE IDEA THAT A LARGE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING
EASTWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND IMPACT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
IN TIMING...BUT MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS RAIN ARRIVING LATE
MONDAY. DEEP POST FRONTAL INSTABILITY...STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND SNOW
LEVELS LOWERING INTO THE 3KFT RANGE MAY LEAD TO HIGHLIGHT WORTHY SNOW
IN THE CASCADES WITH THIS EVENT. LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY FOR NOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
PATTERN...BUT IF CONFIDENCE GROWS THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN WILL
COME TO FRUITION...IT WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY NEED TO BE ADDED IN
COMING SHIFTS. MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS DECENT SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND SO
TEMPERATURES WERE NUDGED UPWARDS AND POPS AND SKY COVER WERE TRENDED
DOWN. /NEUMAN

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA HAS ALLOWED FOG TO DEVELOP
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND ALONG THE COAST. FOG SHOULD LIFT TO
LOW STRATUS IMPROVING VIS BY AROUND 16-17Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR BY 18-20Z. WINDS HAVE TURNED OFFSHORE ALONG THE
COAST...WHICH WILL HELP CLEAR THESE SITES TO VFR BY 18Z AS WELL.
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON. WE MAY SEE SOME VALLEY
FOG DEVELOP TONIGHT INLAND...BUT THIS SHOULD CLEAR OUT EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING AS WINDS START TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD
OF OUR NEXT FRONT WHICH MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING SHOULD
START TO IMPROVE AS FOG LIFTS TO LOW STRATUS BY 16Z. STRATUS
SHOULD BURN OFF RAPIDLY...FURTHER IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR BY
18Z. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION IS KEEPING SEAS DOWN
AROUND 3 FT WITH WIND BELOW 10 KTS TODAY. FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE WATERS WILL BACK WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY
MORNING AND START TO RAMP UP WINDS AND BUILD SEAS THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WINDS
AND SEAS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AHEAD
OF THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS. WINDS STAY UP AROUND 15 TO 25 KTS BEHIND THE
FRONT...FINALLY STARTING TO DECREASE SATURDAY EVENING. SEAS WITH
THIS SYSTEM BUILD TO AROUND 10 TO 12 FT FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS WELL...AND FALL TO AROUND 8 TO 10 FT BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
TIME PERIOD WITH SEAS BELOW 10 FT WILL LIKELY ONLY LAST UNTIL
SATURDAY EVENING...AND SEAS IN THE OUTER WATERS MAY NEVER DROP
BELOW 10 FT. A 10 TO 11 FT SWELL TRAIN MOVES INTO THE
WATERS SATURDAY EVENING...BRINGING SEAS UP ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK. -MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 412 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHWEST INTO THE STATE FROM THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MOIST AND COOL CONDITIONS
OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK TO MILDER VALUES NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MOST OF CENTRAL PA REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN A COOL AIR
DAMMING REGIME BETWEEN STRONG-COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM TO OUR WEST AND
SOUTH. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING THE FAR WESTERN STRIPE OF
ZONES WHERE SOME MIXING HAS ALLOWED FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO
DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE REPLACED BY UPSTREAM CLOUDINESS BEFORE TOO
LONG AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY.

LIFTED INDEX PROGS INDICATE THAT ALL OF CENTRAL PA WILL REMAIN
STRONGLY DAMMED. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN OHIO AND THE HRRR TIMES THEM INTO
MY WESTERN ZONES BETWEEN ABOUT 5 AND 8 PM. WHETHER WIDESPREAD
THUNDER MANAGES TO SURVIVE THE TREK INTO THE STABLE AIRMASS
REMAINS TO BE SEEN BUT I HAVE USED THE HRRR TO BRING A PERIOD OF
RAIN ACROSS MOST OF MY FCST AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT...WITH STILL A GOOD CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THROUGH
MORNING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM NEAR 40 EAST TO AROUND 50 IN THE WEST WILL BE
ANYWHERE FROM ABOUT 5 TO AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HAVING THE COLD
FRONT PRETTY MUCH BISECTING THE FCST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
GEFS DEVELOPS SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY THAN DOES THE SREF...BUT
IF EITHER MODEL FAVORS AN AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW IT
WOULD BE OVER SERN PA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES
EAST. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE IN PA...THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDCOVER WILL
HAVE MUCH TO SAY ABOUT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. SPC DOES HAVE MY FAR
SERN ZONES OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT RISK WHICH AT THIS RANGE LOOKS
REASONABLE.

TEMPS FRIDAY WILL REBOUND NICELY...REACHING THE LOW-MID 60S
ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...AND LOW-MID 70S IN THE SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY FRI NIGHT...WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A RATHER STRONG SMALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SAT. DYNAMICS LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...TAPERING BACK TO SPRINKLES ON SAT AS THEY MOVE AWAY.
ANY SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

BREEZY WITH A QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR ON SAT...THEN WARMER AIR
RETURNS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS RIDGE BUILDS IN.

MENTION OF POPS RETURNS LATE MONDAY INTO TUE AS ANOTHER FRONT
TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. AGAIN...PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK TO REMAIN ON
THE LIGHT SIDE.

SHARP RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR MID/LATE WEEK AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING A
PERIOD OF MILD WEATHER. WEAKENING SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
MAY BRING SHOWERY WEATHER BACK INTO PA FOR THU/FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD IFR-MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE THE REGION INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
SOME IMPROVEMENT HAS MANAGED TO CREEP INTO MY FAR WESTERN
TERMINALS...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY NOT BE LONG LIVED AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING WESTERN PA PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LLWS IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS SFC WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST...AND WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AT 30-50KT.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...CLEARING THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY BY 21-00Z. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST WILL
FINALLY SCOUR OUT THE STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS WITH WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY WITH THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MON...COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH LOCALLY REDUCED CONDITIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 241 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHWEST INTO THE STATE FROM THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MOIST AND COOL CONDITIONS
OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK TO MILDER VALUES NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

MOST OF CENTRAL PA REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN A COOL AIR
DAMMING REGIME BETWEEN STRONG-COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM TO OUR WEST AND
SOUTH. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING THE FAR WESTERN STRIPE OF
ZONES WHERE SOME MIXING HAS ALLOWED FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO
DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE REPLACED BY UPSTREAM CLOUDINESS BEFORE TOO
LONG AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY.

LIFTED INDEX PROGS INDICATE THAT ALL OF CENTRAL PA WILL REMAIN
STRONGLY DAMMED. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN OHIO AND THE HRRR TIMES THEM INTO
MY WESTERN ZONES BETWEEN ABOUT 5 AND 8 PM. WHETHER WIDESPREAD
THUNDER MANAGES TO SURVIVE THE TREK INTO THE STABLE AIRMASS
REMAINS TO BE SEEN BUT I HAVE USED THE HRRR TO BRING A PERIOD OF
RAIN ACROSS MOST OF MY FCST AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT...WITH STILL A GOOD CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THROUGH
MORNING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM NEAR 40 EAST TO AROUND 50 IN THE WEST WILL BE
ANYWHERE FROM ABOUT 5 TO AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...

OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HAVING THE COLD
FRONT PRETTY MUCH BISECTING THE FCST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
GEFS DEVELOPS SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY THAN DOES THE SREF...BUT
IF EITHER MODEL FAVORS AN AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW IT
WOULD BE OVER SERN PA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES
EAST. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE IN PA...THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDCOVER WILL
HAVE MUCH TO SAY ABOUT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. SPC DOES HAVE MY FAR
SERN ZONES OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT RISK WHICH AT THIS RANGE LOOKS
REASONABLE.

TEMPS FRIDAY WILL REBOUND NICELY...REACHING THE LOW-MID 60S
ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...AND LOW-MID 70S IN THE SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER STRONG SMALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SAT.

MAIN THING WAS TO PUT BACK IN A CHC OF SHOWERS FOR LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...GIVEN STRONG DYNAMICS
WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW. PAST EXPERIENCE WITH THIS SITUATION
USUALLY LEADS TO SOME SHOWERS.

OVERALL...THE WEEKEND LOOKS SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND. BREEZY AND
COOL ON SAT. WARMER ON SUNDAY.

DID UP POPS TO 30 PERCENT FROM LATE MONDAY INTO WED MORNING TO
FIT IN WITH OTHERS BETTER. STILL SOME SPREAD ON THE DETAILS. LOOKS
LIKE MODELS AND HPC HAVE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA ON TUE.
FRONT MAY NOT CLEAR TO WED. DID UP TEMPERATURES SOME TOO.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD IFR-MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE THE REGION INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
SOME IMPROVEMENT HAS MANAGED TO CREEP INTO MY FAR WESTERN
TERMINALS...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY NOT BE LONG LIVED AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING WESTERN PA PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LLWS IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS SFC WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST...AND WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AT 30-50KT.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...CLEARING THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY BY 21-00Z. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST WILL
FINALLY SCOUR OUT THE STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS WITH WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY WITH THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MON...COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH LOCALLY REDUCED CONDITIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 1033 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHWEST INTO THE STATE FROM THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MOIST AND COOL CONDITIONS
OVER THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK TO MILDER VALUES NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

CENTRAL PA REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN A COOL AIR DAMMING REGIME
BETWEEN STRONG-COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM TO OUR WEST AND
SOUTH. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND RIDGE SHROUDING FOG WILL PERSIST
THIS MORNING...BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING AS SFC TEMPS MODERATE A BIT
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS OVER WESTERN PA MAY SNEAK INTO OUR FAR
WESTERN LAYER OF COUNTIES BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE INCREASINGLY
STABLE AIRMASS.

LIFTED INDEX PROGS INDICATE THAT ALL OF CENTRAL PA WILL REMAIN
STRONGLY DAMMED. HOWEVER...SHOWERS FORMING IN THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ARE MADE TO SURVIVE THE TREK INTO CENTRAL PA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS THE HRRR SHOWS AN
EROSION OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STABLE COOL-AIR-DAMMING.

CAN`T RULE OUT LATE DAY-EARLY EVENING SEVERE THREAT OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE SOMERSET/WARREN COUNTIES ON THE EDGE OF THE
INSTABILITY NEAR OUR STATIONARY BOUNDARY.

HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S. HOWEVER...AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE RT 219 CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY GET INTO THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CLUSTERS/BKN LINE OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSRA ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL HEAD INTO INCREASINGLY
STABLE LLVL CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN PENN AND GRADUALLY
WEAKEN TONIGHT. STILL...A LARGE AREA AND NEARLY OFF THE
CHART/ANOMALOUSLY STRONG /PLUS 5-6 SIGMA/ 850 MB MOISTURE FLUX
/SHOWN ON THE 00Z GEFS AND 03Z SREF/ WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NWRN PENN. THIS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF
MODERATE...TO BRIEFLY HEAVY SHRA /THOUGH MAINLY LIMITED TO THE NW
HALF OF PENN/.

12 TO 24 HOUR RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY /AS DEPICTED BY
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES/ OF JUST 0.25-0.50 OF AN INCH
ACROSS MAINLY THE NW HALF OF PENN WILL BE SURPRISINGLY LIGHT GIVEN
SUCH STRONG LLVL MOISTURE FLUX. HOWEVER...THE KEY TO THE LIGHTER
THAN EXPECTED QPF APPEARS TO BE LINKED TO THE LACK OF FAVORABLE
JET DYNAMICS/LIFT AS THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF A 100 KT UPPER JET
SLIDES NE ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND NW PENN LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING.

SPC GREATLY TRIMMED BACK THEIR DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREA
PREVIOUS ERN EXTENT OF THE SLIGHT RISK AND ENHANCED THREAT AREAS OVER
WESTERN PENN HAVE BEEN PULLED BACK WELL INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN
OHIO. ERN EDGE OF THE MARGINAL THREAT AREA NIPS OUR FAR WESTERN
ZONES FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

APPROX 990 MB SFC LOW OVER THE UPPER GLAKES AT 12 FRIDAY WILL PUSH
ITS SWD TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL PENN DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY. THE TIMING OF THIS CFROPA
FAVORS ANY CHC OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY ISOLATED SVR TSRA BEING
LIMITED TO PRIMARILY THE MIDDLE AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AFTER 18Z
FRIDAY. SPC MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISK AREAS FOR DAY 2 COVER THE SE
THIRD OF THE CWA.

TEMPS FRIDAY WILL REBOUND NICELY...REACHING THE LOW-MID 60S ACROSS
THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...AND LOW-MID 70S IN THE SE /WHERE THE 03Z
SREF SHOWS ABOUT A 30-40 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF CAPE EXCEEDING
1000 J/KG/.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RATHER STRONG SMALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SAT.

MAIN THING WAS TO PUT BACK IN A CHC OF SHOWERS FOR LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...GIVEN STRONG DYNAMICS
WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW. PAST EXPERIENCE WITH THIS SITUATION
USUALLY LEADS TO SOME SHOWERS.

OVERALL...THE WEEKEND LOOKS SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND. BREEZY AND
COOL ON SAT. WARMER ON SUNDAY.

DID UP POPS TO 30 PERCENT FROM LATE MONDAY INTO WED MORNING TO
FIT IN WITH OTHERS BETTER. STILL SOME SPREAD ON THE DETAILS. LOOKS
LIKE MODELS AND HPC HAVE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA ON TUE.
FRONT MAY NOT CLEAR TO WED. DID UP TEMPERATURES SOME TOO.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME SLOW
IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ALL TERMINALS WILL MAINTAIN
CEILINGS IN THE 500-1500` RANGE AT BEST. JOHNSTOWN MAY STAND THE
BEST CHANCE OF BRIEFLY GOING VFR BEING CLOSE TO THE WARM FRONT
STACKED UP OVER THE ALLEGHENIES...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SIG
IMPROVEMENT IS NOT HIGH.

WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
PASSES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

LLWS IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE LINE WITH WITH SFC WINDS REMAINING
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...AND WINDS BETWEEN 1500 TO 2KFT AT 40KTS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT BEGINNING IN THE WEST AROUND 07Z TO 11Z AT LNS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE REDUCTIONS WITH RAIN SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SAT-MON...VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 258 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA
AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL COMBINE TO KEEP MOIST
AND COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...PUSHING ITS SOUTHWARD
TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY. AFTER A WARM DAY
ON FRIDAY...MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK TO MILDER VALUES NEXT WEEK. THERE
COULD BE A SHOWER FROM TIME TO TIME NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
CENTRAL PA REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN A COOL AIR DAMMING REGIME
BETWEEN STRONG-COLD HIGH PRESSURE /RIDGING SWWD FROM THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES/ AND LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL KANSAS.

REGIONAL RADAR LOOP AT 05Z SHOWS A SMALL MCS/WEAKENING CLUSTER OF
SHRA/TSRA SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. THIS CONVECTIVE FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY
WEAKEN AS IT RIDES EAST AND INTO THE DEEPER LLVL COOL AIR DAMMING
REGIME OVER...AND TO THE EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES.

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR OUTPUT...WILL CARRY LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH 08Z ACROSS THE REGION NEAR AND TO THE
SOUTH OF THE PA TURNPIKE IN SCENT PENN...WITH A VERY SHARP
GRADIENT TOWARD LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL NORTH OF THE TURNPIKE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD TOTAL A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS
SOUTHERN SOMERSET COUNTY WITH DECREASING AMTS NORTH AND
EAST...WHERE OVERCAST SKIES...RIDGE SHROUDING FOG...AND PATCHY
LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.

SWRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN SUSCEPTIBLE TO ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS TOWARD DAWN ASSOC WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT IN
ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM/SOUTHERLY LL JET OVR THE
MIDWEST.

BLEND OF LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS TEMPS NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
MORE OVERCAST AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR TODAY...AS
CENTRAL PA REMAINS IN CAD REGIME. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHC
OF SHOWERS...ESP OVR THE NW MTNS BY AFTN...AS SWRLY LL JET ASSOC
WITH DEVELOPING LOW OVR THE MIDWEST APPROACHES. GEFS 8H MFLUX
VALUES SKYROCKET TO 5SD ABV NORMAL ACROSS NW PA BY 00Z THU. BASED
ON LATEST ENSEMBLE OUTPUT...WILL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS
THE NW MTNS...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE TO CHC POPS ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

LIFTED INDEX PROGS INDICATE THAT ALL OF CENTRAL PA WILL REMAIN
STRONGLY DAMMED. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT LATE DAY SVR WX THREAT
OVR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOMERSET/WARREN COUNTIES...IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO STATIONARY FRONT AND EASTERN EDGE OF MODERATELY HIGH
SFC BASED CAPE. AREAS WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BE PRIMED FOR
SVR WX WITH MODERATE CAPE AND STRONG SHEAR IN THE 0-6KM AND 0-1KM
LAYERS.

HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S. HOWEVER...AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE RT 219 CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY GET INTO THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO PACKAGE FROM RECENT DAYS.

MAIN CHANGE WAS TO UP TEMPERATURES THU NIGHT...GIVEN THAT 850 MB
FRONT IS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...AND VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.

ALSO DID UP TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...GIVEN NEW GUIDANCE AND THAT
850 MB FRONT IS NORTH OF THE AREA. HAVE INCREASING CONCERN FOR
AT LEAST A FEW STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. EARLY ON...FAR WEST
MAY SEE ONE...GIVEN STRONGER WIND FIELDS TO THE WEST.

LATER ON...TEMPERATURES IN THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE...WITH DEWPTS
IN THE 50S...MAY LEAD SOME STORMS LATER IN THE AFT...EVEN WITH NOT
THE BEST HEIGHT FALLS.

ONE ONLY HAS TO LOOK OVER COLD LAKE ERIE. CONVECTION FORMED ALONG
THE LAKE SHORE...WITH JUST SOME MINOR AMTS OF HEATING THIS AFT.

ANYWAY...DID LOWER TEMPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT. A RATHER
STRONG SMALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FOR LATE
FRIDAY INTO SAT.

MAIN THING WAS TO PUT BACK IN A CHC OF SHOWERS FOR LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...GIVEN STRONG DYNAMICS
WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW. PAST EXPERIENCE WITH THIS SITUATION
USUALLY LEADS TO SOME SHOWERS.

OVERALL...THE WEEKEND LOOKS SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND. BREEZY AND
COOL ON SAT. WARMER ON SUNDAY.

DID UP POPS TO 30 PERCENT FROM LATE MONDAY INTO WED MORNING TO
FIT IN WITH OTHERS BETTER. STILL SOME SPREAD ON THE DETAILS. LOOKS
LIKE MODELS AND HPC HAVE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA ON TUE.
FRONT MAY NOT CLEAR TO WED. DID UP TEMPERATURES SOME TOO.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT
IS STALLED SOUTH OF PA. THIS STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOCKED IN PLACE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
LOW CIGS...AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
BE THE RULE. THERE HAVE BEEN SLIGHT BREAKS IN SOME OF THE MVFR TO
IFR CIGS AND VSBYS...THOUGH THESE WILL BE THE EXCEPTION AND NOT
THE RULE.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST AT 5-10 MPH WITH MAY
TAF SITES GOING CALM OVERNIGHT.
 AS THURSDAY CONTINUES THE LOW STRATOCU WILL SLOWLY BREAK
UP...WITH IFR CIGS INCREASING TO MVFR TO PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
VFR...BEFORE DROPPING DOWN THURSDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE REDUCTIONS WITH RAIN SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SAT-MON...VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 136 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA
AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL COMBINE TO KEEP MOIST
AND COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...PUSHING ITS SOUTHWARD
TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY. AFTER A WARM DAY
ON FRIDAY...MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK TO MILDER VALUES NEXT WEEK. THERE
COULD BE A SHOWER FROM TIME TO TIME NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
CENTRAL PA REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN A COOL AIR DAMMING REGIME
BETWEEN STRONG-COLD HIGH PRESSURE /RIDGING SWWD FROM THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES/ AND LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL KANSAS.

REGIONAL RADAR LOOP AT 05Z SHOWS A SMALL MCS/WEAKENING CLUSTER OF
SHRA/TSRA SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. THIS CONVECTIVE FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY
WEAKEN AS IT RIDES EAST AND INTO THE DEEPER LLVL COOL AIR DAMMING
REGIME OVER...AND TO THE EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES.

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR OUTPUT...WILL CARRY LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH 08Z ACROSS THE REGION NEAR AND TO THE
SOUTH OF THE PA TURNPIKE IN SCENT PENN...WITH A VERY SHARP
GRADIENT TOWARD LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL NORTH OF THE TURNPIKE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD TOTAL A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS
SOUTHERN SOMERSET COUNTY WITH DECREASING AMTS NORTH AND
EAST...WHERE OVERCAST SKIES...RIDGE SHROUDING FOG...AND PATCHY
LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.

SWRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN SUSCEPTIBLE TO ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS TOWARD DAWN ASSOC WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT IN
ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM/SOUTHERLY LL JET OVR THE
MIDWEST.

BLEND OF LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS TEMPS NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
MORE OVERCAST AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR TODAY...AS
CENTRAL PA REMAINS IN CAD REGIME. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHC
OF SHOWERS...ESP OVR THE NW MTNS BY AFTN...AS SWRLY LL JET ASSOC
WITH DEVELOPING LOW OVR THE MIDWEST APPROACHES. GEFS 8H MFLUX
VALUES SKYROCKET TO 5SD ABV NORMAL ACROSS NW PA BY 00Z THU. BASED
ON LATEST ENSEMBLE OUTPUT...WILL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS
THE NW MTNS...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE TO CHC POPS ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

LIFTED INDEX PROGS INDICATE THAT ALL OF CENTRAL PA WILL REMAIN
STRONGLY DAMMED. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT LATE DAY SVR WX THREAT
OVR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOMERSET/WARREN COUNTIES...IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO STATIONARY FRONT AND EASTERN EDGE OF MODERATELY HIGH
SFC BASED CAPE. AREAS WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BE PRIMED FOR
SVR WX WITH MODERATE CAPE AND STRONG SHEAR IN THE 0-6KM AND 0-1KM
LAYERS.

HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S. HOWEVER...AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE RT 219 CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY GET INTO THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO PACKAGE FROM RECENT DAYS.

MAIN CHANGE WAS TO UP TEMPERATURES THU NIGHT...GIVEN THAT 850 MB
FRONT IS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...AND VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.

ALSO DID UP TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...GIVEN NEW GUIDANCE AND THAT
850 MB FRONT IS NORTH OF THE AREA. HAVE INCREASING CONCERN FOR
AT LEAST A FEW STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. EARLY ON...FAR WEST
MAY SEE ONE...GIVEN STRONGER WIND FIELDS TO THE WEST.

LATER ON...TEMPERATURES IN THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE...WITH DEWPTS
IN THE 50S...MAY LEAD SOME STORMS LATER IN THE AFT...EVEN WITH NOT
THE BEST HEIGHT FALLS.

ONE ONLY HAS TO LOOK OVER COLD LAKE ERIE. CONVECTION FORMED ALONG
THE LAKE SHORE...WITH JUST SOME MINOR AMTS OF HEATING THIS AFT.

ANYWAY...DID LOWER TEMPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT. A RATHER
STRONG SMALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FOR LATE
FRIDAY INTO SAT.

MAIN THING WAS TO PUT BACK IN A CHC OF SHOWERS FOR LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...GIVEN STRONG DYNAMICS
WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW. PAST EXPERIENCE WITH THIS SITUATION
USUALLY LEADS TO SOME SHOWERS.

OVERALL...THE WEEKEND LOOKS SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND. BREEZY AND
COOL ON SAT. WARMER ON SUNDAY.

DID UP POPS TO 30 PERCENT FROM LATE MONDAY INTO WED MORNING TO
FIT IN WITH OTHERS BETTER. STILL SOME SPREAD ON THE DETAILS. LOOKS
LIKE MODELS AND HPC HAVE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA ON TUE.
FRONT MAY NOT CLEAR TO WED. DID UP TEMPERATURES SOME TOO.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT
IS STALLED SOUTH OF PA. THIS STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOCKED IN PLACE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
LOW CIGS...AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
BE THE RULE WITH LITTLE IF ANY IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST AT 5-10 MPH THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE REDUCTIONS WITH RAIN SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SAT-MON...VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...GARTNER



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

 112 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
M AND HUMID SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK...KEEPING CONDITIONS UNSETTLED WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
CROSS THE REGION BY THE END OF FRIDAY...LIKELY SUPPORTING A BAND OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
0515 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER WAS ADJUSTED PER SATELLITE IMAGERY.
POPS WERE ADJUSTED PER RADAR TRENDS. WINDS WERE UPDATED FROM THE
LATEST MODEL DATA. TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED UP A BIT TODAY AND
DOWN A BIT TONIGHT PER THE LATEST MODEL DATA.

AS OF 1000 PM...THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE STILL SHOWS
1000-2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE. A COUPLE OF ISOLD TSTMS HAVE POPPED UP IN
THE MIDLANDS...AND THE LAST COUPLE OF HRRR RUNS DO SHOW A FEW MORE
CELLS DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SOUTH OF I-85. SO WILL ADD
A SLGT CHC BACK IN ACRS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. CANNOT RULE OUT A
SEVERE PULSE STORM GIVEN THE CAPE AND 25-30 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR.
OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FCST LOOKS ON TRACK.

AS OF 730 PM EDT...STILL A CLEAR RADAR ON KGSP...WITH CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. HAVE CUT
BACK POPS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THIS UPDATE...LEAVING A SLGT CHC IN FOR
THE NRN TIER...IN CASE SOMETHING FIRES TO OUR NORTH AND MOVES IN.
TEMPS/SKY/WINDS ARE ON TRACK.

AS OF 500 PM EDT...THE ATMOS CONTINUES TO BE RATHER SUPPRESSED ACRS
THE CWFA...AS AS UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES. HAVE CUT BACK POP HEADING
INTO THE EVENING HOURS...IN LINE WITH THE LAST FEW HRRR RUNS OF
SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY. MCS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...ONE CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL KY MAY DROP SE IN
TO THE NC MTNS LATE THIS EVENING (PER THE CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS). SO WILL LEAVE THE CHC POP ACRS THE NRN TIER FOR LATE
EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT. THE UPSTATE AND NE GA MAY NOT SEE ANY
PRECIP...IF THE LATEST TRENDS HOLD.

AS OF 230 PM EDT...WEAK UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE ROCKIES. STRONG SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS IS RESULTING IN A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
MOVING INTO WEST VIRGINIA AT AFD TIME. HI-RES REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE
WANTS TO CONTINUE TO DRAG THIS COMPLEX SOUTHEAST ALONG THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...CLIPPING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
SBCAPE VALUES EAST OF THE RIDGES CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND ARE UP TO
BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG AT AFD TIME AND LOOK TO SUPPORT THE
SUSTAINING OF THIS COMPLEX. ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE INCREASING
SBCAPE VALUES...CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW
LEVEL CAP ERODES. BUFR SOUNDINGS MAX OUT BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG AT
VARIOUS LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WITH SLIGHTLY STEEPER
LAPSE RATES THAN YESTERDAY...CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
SEVERE THOUGH BEST CHANCES REMAIN ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES
CLOSER TO THE UPPER SHORTWAVE. THREATS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT BUT COULD STILL
SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG THURSDAY MORNING. THE
ROCKIES UPPER WAVE WILL PUSH INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...DRAGGING A FRONT THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WE
REMAIN SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH BOTH GFS
AND NAM INCREASING CAPES ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE PIEDMONT TO BETWEEN
1500-2000 J/KG AGAIN. NO REAL DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR TO SPEAK
OF...TOO FAR AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH TURNING
IN THE WIND PROFILE WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND WEST
TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT TO RESULT IN SOME DECENT HELICITY
VALUES THAT MAY HELP TO ORGANIZE CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. CURRENT SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK ONLY HAS OUR AREA IN GENERAL
THUNDER BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO AGAIN SEE ISOLATED SEVERE
POTENTIAL. POPS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A GENERAL
DIURNAL TREND BUT HIGHER POPS ARE EMPHASIZED ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES
CLOSER TO ANY SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM UNDER THE INCREASING THICKNESSES ALOFT...
WITH LOWS TONIGHT A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND HIGHS
THURSDAY 10 OR SO DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. GUIDANCE OVERALL
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES
TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD/ALONG A COLD
FRONT MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BUT BEFORE WE GET THERE...WE WILL
STILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...PERHAPS A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE...ON THURSDAY EVENING. THE WHOLE FCST AREA WARRANTS
A CHANCE POP INTO THURSDAY EVENING...BUT LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD REDUCE THE CHANCES BACK TO WHERE SOME MECHANICAL FORCING
REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY LATE EVENING. THE
PRECIP CHANCES THEN START RAMPING UP ON THE TN BORDER AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS CONVECTION ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROF MAY REACH THE NC MTNS BEFORE
DAYBREAK. EXPECT AREAS E OF THE MTNS TO GET A BREAK IN THE ACTION
AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY...WHICH RESULTS IN A SHORT PERIOD WITH A LARGE
POP GRADIENT FROM W TO E. TEMPS SHOULD BE SEASONALLY MILD OVERNIGHT.

WHICH BRINGS US TO FRIDAY. THE MODELS SHOW EXCELLENT FORCING ALONG
THE FRONT TO THE WEST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT THIS
WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THE RECENT MODEL TREND
SHOWING POORER CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE FRONT ALSO CONTINUES ON THE
NEW RUNS. THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET PULLS NWD BY AFTERNOON AND
850 MB WINDS WEAKEN AND VEER. THE RESULT IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER SHEAR
AND A MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL HODOGRAPH. ON THE OTHER HAND...A SLIGHT
DELAY IN THE TIMING ALLOWS SURFACE BASED CAPE IN THE MODELS TO CLIMB
A BIT HIGHER...CLOSER TO 1000 J/KG ON THE GFS AND ABOVE 1500 J/KG ON
THE OPERATIONAL NAM. SO...THE TREND ON THE SIGNALS IS MIXED. STILL
THINK WE HAVE A DECENT CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION...
ESPECIALLY E OF THE MTNS...SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IT IN THE
HWO. THE PRECIP PROBABILITY GOES UP TO CATEGORICAL ON THE TN
BORDER...BUT HAVE KEPT ONLY A LIKELY E OF THE MTNS BECAUSE IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A CONVECTIVE LINE COULD BREAK UP A BIT OVER THE MTNS
AND THEN FILL BACK IN AS IT IS LEAVING THE EASTERN PART OF THE FCST
AREA LATE IN THE DAY. THE CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH E OF THE REGION IN
THE EARLY EVENING EVEN IF THE FRONT GETS HELD UP ON THE MTNS. PRECIP
CHANCES RAMP DOWN FROM THE WEST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.

ON SATURDAY...A NRN STREAM TROF PASSING TO THE WEST WILL RESULT IN A
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD
IN TO DRY US OUT AND GIVE US A NORMAL SPRING DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM WED...GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SHORT WAVE
RIDGING SETTING UP FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A SRN STREAM UPPER LOW
DEVELOPS AND MOVES INTO THE SRN PLAINS. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...A
DAMPENING SHORT WAVE TOPS THE RIDGE AND CROSSES THE AREA TUE AS THE
UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. RIDGING BEGINS TO
REBUILD ON WED...BUT SWLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER OUR AREA WITH WEAK
SHORT WAVES MOVING THRU THE FLOW.

AT THE SFC...DRY AND MILD HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON SUN...WITH
POTENTIALLY ENUF LINGERING MOISTURE FOR ISOLATES SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MTNS. TEMPS WILL BE UP TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE HIGH MOVES
EAST MON WITH SLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. WITHOUT ANY STRONG FORCING
DEVELOPING...EXPECT SCT SHRA ACROSS THE MTNS AND ISOLATED SHRA
ELSEWHERE. TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE SLY RETURN FLOW
REMAINS IN PLACE TUE AND WED WITH WEAK SFC RIDGING OVER THE AREA AND
ANY FRONTAL SYSTEMS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL CREATE SCT MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH DAYS. LOWS WILL BE UP TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST LOW VFR CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE CURRENT CIG ERODING AFTER
DAYBREAK. A LOW VFR CIG WOULD RETURN TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON A DAYBREAK VSBY
RESTRICTIONS...AND WITH A LACK OF RAINFALL YESTERDAY THIS SCENARIO HAS
BEEN ACCEPTED. INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AGAIN TODAY...SUPPORTING
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ANY RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE ASSOCIATED
WITH PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE S AND SW.

ELSEWHERE...VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT SUPPORTED AT TAF SITES BY A
MODEL CONSENSUS...AND WITH NO RAIN YESTERDAY...THIS OUTCOME HAS BEEN
ACCEPTED. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW LOW VFR CLOUDS PERSISTING...
ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME AREAS WHERE HIGH CIRRUS IS THE
PREVAILING CLOUD. LOW VFR CIGS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE FRONT ADVANCES...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE S AND SW.

OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING WITH IT
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FOR THE WEEKEND
AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA. MOISTURE RETURNS LATE MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...ARK/JAT/TDP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JAT




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS FORT WORTH TX

 1233 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

.AVIATION...

CONCERNS..TIMING OF FROPA AND CONVECTION.

AT MIDDAY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS TO EAST OF
WICHITA FALLS TO SOUTH OF LUBBOCK. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
AT KAFW NEAR 23Z...KDFW 2330Z...KDAL AROUND 00Z AND KACT BY 03Z.

SOME CONVECTION...MOSTLY SHRA...COULD AFFECT THE TERMINALS EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN EXPECT SOME TSRA MIXED IN. STRONG TO SEVERE TSRA
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT MID/LATE AFTERNOON FROM
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND BUILD DOWN INTO
NORTHEAST/NORTH TEXAS. WILL CARRY VCTS 20-02Z WITH THE BEST TIME
PERIOD FOR AFFECTING THE METROPLEX TERMINALS BEING 22-00Z...AND
KACT 02-05Z.

SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 16 KNOTS WILL VEER WESTERLY AS A
PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ARRIVES AROUND 20Z...THEN GO NORTH
14-20 KNOTS AND GUSTY THIS EVENING AFTER FROPA. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHEASTERLY NEAR 10 KNOTS MID MORNING TOMORROW.

CIGS...KACT WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH MID AFTERNOON THEN LIFTING TO
AROUND 4000 FEET THIS EVENING AND BKN040-050 OVERNIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. SCATTERED MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE METROPLEX SHOULD
LIFT WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SCT-BKN035-040 UNTIL
02Z THEN BECOMING VFR AFTERWARD.     75

&&

.UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE HAS BEEN DONE TO INCREASE THE POPS FOR THIS
MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED BETWEEN COLEMAN...GRANBURY AND LAMPASAS.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SOUTH OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING.  58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015/
A BAND OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED ALONG A
GAINESVILLE TO BROWNWOOD LINE AT 3 AM...THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNRISE.
AS NOTED IN YESTERDAY EVENINGS /927 PM WED/ AREA FORECAST
DISCUSSION...THE 00Z SOUNDING INDICATED A PROFILE THAT IS
FAVORABLE FOR HEAT BURSTS. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE NOT SEE ANY OF THOSE
OVERNIGHT...SOME WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH DAYBREAK.

THE CAP SHOULD HOLD OFF ANY SURFACE BASED STORMS UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON...WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. MOST OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT WILL MOVE TO NEAR
OR JUST SOUTH OF A BONHAM TO DFW TO COMANCHE LINE BY 00Z.
WITH THE ARW...NMM AND HRRR BRINGING THE FRONT TO NEAR THE
LINE AROUND 21Z...WHILE THE NAM HOLDS THE FRONT OFF UNTIL
AFTER 00Z. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AREA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT. WITH MU CAPES IN THE 1500 TO
2000 J/KG RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES IN THE 35-45 KT RANGE...SOME SUPERCELLS STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
TORNADOES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WITH 0-3KM
HELICITY VALUES APPROACHING 200 M2/S2.

EXPECT THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...AND
SHOULD MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WELL
BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY. THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
PAST MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY WITH THE
FRONT HAVING MOVED INTO SOUTH TEXAS...THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN
WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR WITH
30-40 PERCENT POPS SOUTH OF A KILLEEN TO PALESTINE LINE.

THE FRONT WILL START TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH BY SATURDAY MORNING
IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WE WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL
MOVE INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA SUNDAY...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS.

58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  83  55  73  55  74 /  40  40  10  30  40
WACO, TX              84  58  73  58  76 /  40  60  20  30  40
PARIS, TX             79  51  73  52  73 /  40  70  10  30  40
DENTON, TX            83  53  73  54  73 /  30  30  10  30  40
MCKINNEY, TX          81  53  73  55  73 /  40  50  10  30  40
DALLAS, TX            82  55  73  55  74 /  40  50  10  30  40
TERRELL, TX           80  55  73  55  74 /  40  80  10  30  40
CORSICANA, TX         82  57  73  58  75 /  40  80  20  30  40
TEMPLE, TX            84  60  73  59  76 /  40  50  20  40  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     86  53  73  54  74 /  20  20  10  30  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS FORT WORTH TX

 645 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

.AVIATION...
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CONUS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. NORTH TEXAS RESIDES ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH THE
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE...HAS RESULTED IN ELEVATED
CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. THE EAST-WEST AXIS OF STORMS
HAS SHIFTED TO BETWEEN THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX AND
KACT...AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN THIS REGION UNTIL THE LOW LEVEL
JET MIXES OUT MID MORNING.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS. THE FRONT WILL BE REACHING
THE METROPLEX DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. STORMS
SHOULD INITIALLY BE SCATTERED IN NATURE IN AND AROUND THE
METROPLEX BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A SQUALL LINE AS THE FRONT PUSHES
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE WACO AREA THIS EVENING. THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FROPA IN THE METROPLEX AROUND
00-02Z THEN IN THE WACO AREA 04-06Z. FOR NOW...WE WILL MAINTAIN
VCTS IN AREA TAFS BUT LATER FORECASTS MAY REQUIRE THE ADDITION OF
A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDER DEPENDING ON FUTURE TRENDS. ACTIVITY
SHOULD SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF ALL TAF LOCATIONS AROUND 10/O6Z
ALONG WITH THE FRONT.

30

&&

.UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE HAS BEEN DONE TO INCREASE THE POPS FOR THIS
MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED BETWEEN COLEMAN...GRABURY AND LAMPASAS.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SOUTH OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING.

58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015/
A BAND OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED ALONG A
GAINESVILLE TO BROWNWOOD LINE AT 3 AM...THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNRISE.
AS NOTED IN YESTERDAY EVENINGS /927 PM WED/ AREA FORECAST
DISCUSSION...THE 00Z SOUNDING INDICATED A PROFILE THAT IS
FAVORABLE FOR HEAT BURSTS. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE NOT SEE ANY OF THOSE
OVERNIGHT...SOME WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH DAYBREAK.

THE CAP SHOULD HOLD OFF ANY SURFACE BASED STORMS UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON...WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. MOST OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT WILL MOVE TO NEAR
OR JUST SOUTH OF A BONHAM TO DFW TO COMANCHE LINE BY 00Z.
WITH THE ARW...NMM AND HRRR BRINGING THE FRONT TO NEAR THE
LINE AROUND 21Z...WHILE THE NAM HOLDS THE FRONT OFF UNTIL
AFTER 00Z. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AREA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT. WITH MU CAPES IN THE 1500 TO
2000 J/KG RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES IN THE 35-45 KT RANGE...SOME SUPERCELLS STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
TORNADOES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WITH 0-3KM
HELICITY VALUES APPROACHING 200 M2/S2.

EXPECT THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...AND
SHOULD MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WELL
BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY. THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
PAST MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY WITH THE
FRONT HAVING MOVED INTO SOUTH TEXAS...THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN
WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR WITH
30-40 PERCENT POPS SOUTH OF A KILLEEN TO PALESTINE LINE.

THE FRONT WILL START TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH BY SATURDAY MORNING
IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WE WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL
MOVE INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA SUNDAY...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  83  55  73  55  74 /  40  40  10  30  40
WACO, TX              84  58  73  58  76 /  40  60  20  30  40
PARIS, TX             79  51  73  52  73 /  40  70  10  30  40
DENTON, TX            83  53  73  54  73 /  30  30  10  30  40
MCKINNEY, TX          81  53  73  55  73 /  40  50  10  30  40
DALLAS, TX            82  55  73  55  74 /  40  50  10  30  40
TERRELL, TX           80  55  73  55  74 /  40  80  10  30  40
CORSICANA, TX         82  57  73  58  75 /  40  80  20  30  40
TEMPLE, TX            84  60  73  59  76 /  40  50  20  40  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     86  53  73  54  74 /  20  20  10  30  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

30/58




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS FORT WORTH TX

 601 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

.UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE HAS BEEN DONE TO INCREASE THE POPS FOR THIS
MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED BETWEEN COLEMAN...GRABURY AND LAMPASAS.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SOUTH OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
A QUICK UPDATE HAS BEEN DONE TO INCREASE THE POPS THIS MORNING ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS. MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED BETWEEN COLEMAN...GRABURY AND LAMPASAS. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR.

/ISSUED 1149 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015/
/06Z TAFS/

SOME MVFR CIGS ARE ALREADY LOCATED AROUND THE AREA BUT MVFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER ALL THE TAF SITES BY 09-10Z. GUSTY
WINDS ARE OCCURRING DUE TO DISSIPATING RAIN AND STORMS IN THE
AREA AND THE WINDS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL 15-20 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. SOME ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND WILL MAINTAIN A VCTS MENTION IN THE
METROPLEX BETWEEN 09-12Z. CIGS WILL IMPROVE ABOVE 2 KFT BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY AND THEN INTO VFR CATEGORY BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE METROPLEX AHEAD OF
THE FRONT FROM 09/21-10/02Z AND AT KACT BETWEEN 10/03-07Z. THESE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE WITH A LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING
WIND THREAT. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH THURSDAY EVENING
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

JLDUNN


&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015/
A BAND OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED ALONG A
GAINESVILLE TO BROWNWOOD LINE AT 3 AM...THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNRISE.
AS NOTED IN YESTERDAY EVENINGS /927 PM WED/ AREA FORECAST
DISCUSSION...THE 00Z SOUNDING INDICATED A PROFILE THAT IS
FAVORABLE FOR HEAT BURSTS. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE NOT SEE ANY OF THOSE
OVERNIGHT...SOME WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH DAYBREAK.

THE CAP SHOULD HOLD OFF ANY SURFACE BASED STORMS UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON...WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. MOST OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT WILL MOVE TO NEAR
OR JUST SOUTH OF A BONHAM TO DFW TO COMANCHE LINE BY 00Z.
WITH THE ARW...NMM AND HRRR BRINGING THE FRONT TO NEAR THE
LINE AROUND 21Z...WHILE THE NAM HOLDS THE FRONT OFF UNTIL
AFTER 00Z. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AREA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT. WITH MU CAPES IN THE 1500 TO
2000 J/KG RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES IN THE 35-45 KT RANGE...SOME SUPERCELLS STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
TORNADOES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WITH 0-3KM
HELICITY VALUES APPROACHING 200 M2/S2.

EXPECT THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...AND
SHOULD MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WELL
BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY. THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
PAST MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY WITH THE
FRONT HAVING MOVED INTO SOUTH TEXAS...THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN
WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR WITH
30-40 PERCENT POPS SOUTH OF A KILLEEN TO PALESTINE LINE.

THE FRONT WILL START TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH BY SATURDAY MORNING
IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WE WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL
MOVE INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA SUNDAY...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS.

58

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  83  55  73  55  74 /  40  40  10  30  40
WACO, TX              84  58  73  58  76 /  40  60  20  30  40
PARIS, TX             79  51  73  52  73 /  40  70  10  30  40
DENTON, TX            83  53  73  54  73 /  30  30  10  30  40
MCKINNEY, TX          81  53  73  55  73 /  40  50  10  30  40
DALLAS, TX            82  55  73  55  74 /  40  50  10  30  40
TERRELL, TX           80  55  73  55  74 /  40  80  10  30  40
CORSICANA, TX         82  57  73  58  75 /  40  80  20  30  40
TEMPLE, TX            84  60  73  59  76 /  40  50  20  40  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     86  53  73  54  74 /  20  20  10  30  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

30/58




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS FORT WORTH TX

 400 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A BAND OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED ALONG A
GAINESVILLE TO BROWNWOOD LINE AT 3 AM...THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNRISE.
AS NOTED IN YESTERDAY EVENINGS /927 PM WED/ AREA FORECAST
DISCUSSION...THE 00Z SOUNDING INDICATED A PROFILE THAT IS
FAVORABLE FOR HEAT BURSTS. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE NOT SEE ANY OF THOSE
OVERNIGHT...SOME WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH DAYBREAK.

THE CAP SHOULD HOLD OFF ANY SURFACE BASED STORMS UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON...WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. MOST OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT WILL MOVE TO NEAR
OR JUST SOUTH OF A BONHAM TO DFW TO COMANCHE LINE BY 00Z.
WITH THE ARW...NMM AND HRRR BRINGING THE FRONT TO NEAR THE
LINE AROUND 21Z...WHILE THE NAM HOLDS THE FRONT OFF UNTIL
AFTER 00Z. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AREA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT. WITH MU CAPES IN THE 1500 TO
2000 J/KG RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES IN THE 35-45 KT RANGE...SOME SUPERCELLS STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
TORNADOES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WITH 0-3KM
HELICITY VALUES APPROACHING 200 M2/S2.

EXPECT THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...AND
SHOULD MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WELL
BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY. THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
PAST MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY WITH THE
FRONT HAVING MOVED INTO SOUTH TEXAS...THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN
WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR WITH
30-40 PERCENT POPS SOUTH OF A KILLEEN TO PALESTINE LINE.

THE FRONT WILL START TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH BY SATURDAY MORNING
IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WE WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL
MOVE INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA SUNDAY...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1149 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015/
/06Z TAFS/

SOME MVFR CIGS ARE ALREADY LOCATED AROUND THE AREA BUT MVFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER ALL THE TAF SITES BY 09-10Z. GUSTY
WINDS ARE OCCURRING DUE TO DISSIPATING RAIN AND STORMS IN THE
AREA AND THE WINDS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL 15-20 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. SOME ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND WILL MAINTAIN A VCTS MENTION IN THE
METROPLEX BETWEEN 09-12Z. CIGS WILL IMPROVE ABOVE 2 KFT BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY AND THEN INTO VFR CATEGORY BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE METROPLEX AHEAD OF
THE FRONT FROM 09/21-10/02Z AND AT KACT BETWEEN 10/03-07Z. THESE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE WITH A LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING
WIND THREAT. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH THURSDAY EVENING
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

JLDUNN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  83  55  73  55  74 /  40  40  10  30  40
WACO, TX              84  58  73  58  76 /  30  60  20  30  40
PARIS, TX             79  51  73  52  73 /  40  70  10  30  40
DENTON, TX            83  53  73  54  73 /  40  30  10  30  40
MCKINNEY, TX          81  53  73  55  73 /  40  50  10  30  40
DALLAS, TX            82  55  73  55  74 /  40  50  10  30  40
TERRELL, TX           80  55  73  55  74 /  40  80  10  30  40
CORSICANA, TX         82  57  73  58  75 /  40  80  20  30  40
TEMPLE, TX            84  60  73  59  76 /  40  50  20  40  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     86  53  73  54  74 /  20  20  10  30  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

30/58




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

 1248 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

.AVIATION...
A CLUSTER OF SHRA IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND
ESCARPMENT AREAS. HAVE GONE WITH VCSH AT KAUS/KSAT/KSSF OVERNIGHT
AS THIS CLUSTER CONTINUES TO THE EAST. MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED
FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THESE CIGS WILL
SPREAD WEST ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND
KDRT OVERNIGHT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE CLUSTER OF
SHRA DISRUPTS THE MVFR CIGS. A DRYLINE WILL MOVE INTO THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS MID MORNING INTO
AFTERNOON AND THEN RETREATS BACK WEST THURSDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL
BECOME VFR BY LATE MORNING AT KDRT. EAST OF THE DRYLINE...CIGS
WILL RISE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF
SHRA/TSRA ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE. WILL LEAVE MENTION OF
THESE OUT OF THE TAFS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON LOCATION. MVFR CIGS
REDEVELOP FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR INTO
THE HILL COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH THROUGH
CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TONIGHT AND EXPECT SOME SHRA/TSRA ALONG IT AND
HAVE MENTIONED VCSH AT KAUS. S TO SE WINDS 7 TO 15 KTS PREVAIL.
EXCEPT...W TO NW 4 TO 8 KTS BEHIND THE DRYLINE AND NE BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015/

UPDATE... /RAISED POPS...THUNDER CHANCES WRN THIRD/
FAST PACED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ARRIVING FROM WEST TX IS A
SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION THAT EXTENDS NORTH
INTO NW TX. THE SOUTHERN ENHANCEMENTS ARE LIKELY THE PRODUCT OF
FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MOST
OF THE HI-RES RUNS SHOWN THE ACTIVITY WEAKENING BEFORE REACHING
THE I-35 CORRIDOR...BUT DO SHOW SOME AREAS OF LIGHT QPF FROM
LIGHT SHOWERS. WILL EXTEND A MENTION OF SPRINKLES INTO SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES AND BEEF UP POPS OVER MAINLY VAL VERDE COUNTY AND TO A
SMALLER EXTENT THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015/

AVIATION...
THERE ARE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS MEXICO
TOWARD TEXAS AND THERE IS A CHANCE SOME OF THESE COULD MOVE INTO
DRT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO...BUT
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. ANY STORMS THAT DO
MOVE OVER AN AIRPORT WILL NOT CHANGE THE FLYING CATEGORY. VFR CIGS
WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS UNTIL LATE EVENING WHEN CIGS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR IN AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO. CIGS WILL DROP AT DRT
LATER TONIGHT WHEN THEY WILL ALSO DROP TO IFR AT AUSTIN AND SAN
ANTONIO. IMPROVEMENT WILL COME LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
THURSDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...

OVERALL HIGHLIGHTS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON THE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POSSIBILITIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY EVENING FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A
FREDERICKSBURG TO LA GRANGE LINE.

FOR TODAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CHANNELS DEPICT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER UTAH WITH RAP ANALYSIS INDICATING AN ENHANCED MID-LEVEL WIND
SPEED BELT EXTENDING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS BACK WESTWARD INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO. THE INCREASING H5-H3 WIND FLOW IS AIDING IN
BETTER DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND HELPING GENERATE SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS
ABOVE A CAPPING INVERSION. 315K THETA SURFACE DEPICTS LOWEST
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS WITH LOWER LAYERS STILL DRY. THIS
IS LIMITING OVERALL AMOUNTS FROM REACHING THE GROUND SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS BIG QUESTION FOR LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE HOW MUCH
CLOUD COVER EROSION OCCURS WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR MORE SURFACE
HEATING AND POSSIBLY AID SURFACE BASED STORMS OUT WEST. VIS
SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW CLEARING ACROSS MAVERICK BUT VAL VERDE
REMAINS MOSTLY SOCKED IN. SOME ADDITIONAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS THROUGH 6PM BUT BOTH GFS/NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST OVERALL CAP SHOULD HOLD AND LIMIT
SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. DESPITE THIS FACT...ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL GROW AS CAPPING INVERSION THINS ABOVE 700MB.
WHILE AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL OR WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH CAN NOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE
CHANCES ARE RELATIVELY LOW. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WITH SOUTHEASTERN AREAS
MOSTLY DRY.

FOR THURSDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER UTAH WILL HELP PUSH A
WEAK FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION THAT WILL IMPINGE ON THE
DRYLINE TO EDGE TOWARDS THE HILL COUNTY BY THE AFTERNOON. AFTER
MORNING CLOUD COVER SLOWLY ERODES...SURFACE INSTABILITY IS
PROGGED TO INCREASE TOWARDS 3000 J/KG AS MIXING OCCURS BY MID
AFTERNOON. BOTH NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE EROSION OF THE
CAP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WITH 30KT 0-6 KM SHEAR IN PLACE. WHILE
NOT SUPER HIGH...THIS AMOUNT IN CONJUNCTION WITH A LOW-LEVEL
FORCING BOUNDARY (DRYLINE) COULD HELP SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS THAT COULD TAKE ON A SUPERCELL APPEARANCE. MOST
FAVORED AREAS WILL BE TOWARDS WACO TO DALLAS WITH TAIL END CELLS
POSSIBLE TO SKIRT BURNET TO WILLIAMSON. QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL BE PRIMARY THREATS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
WANE THROUGH THE MID EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY DECREASES BUT
MID-LEVEL SHOWERS COULD REGENERATE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS AN
IMPULSE MOVES OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST. /ALLEN/

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS
AREA WILL REMAIN IN SW FLOW WITH EMBEDDED IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE
REGION. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY
AND POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

FOR FRIDAY...THE WEAK BOUNDARY/DRYLINE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION LEAVING SOUTHERN LOCATIONS IN A MORE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION FRIDAY WILL BE
HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR GIVEN CLOUD COVER FROM MID-LEVEL
LIFT FROM A MORNING TRAVERSING IMPULSE. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
RENEWED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON PER MASS FIELDS WHICH
INCREASES CONFIDENCE OF MORE SURFACE BASED ACTIVITY. SUPPORTIVE
LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR APPEAR TO BE IN PLACE FOR SOME ISOLATED STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WITH MORE FAVORED AREA ACROSS WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN ZONES.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT WITH REESTABLISHING
SE LOW-LVL FLOW UNDERNEATH CONTINUED ZONAL TO SW FLOW AS EMBEDDED
IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE REGION. THESE IMPULSES IN COMBINATION WITH
INSTABILITY AND AT LEAST MODEST H5 WIND SPEEDS SHOULD HELP AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM GENERATION SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THESE IMPULSES WILL BE EJECTING AHEAD OF A
LARGER CUT-OFF H5 LOW ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO THAT WILL AID IN
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH FROM THE MAIN
LOW WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION AND AID IN LIKELY CONTINUED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BOTH GFS AND EC PRECIP RUN
ACCUMULATION TOTALS SUGGEST POCKETS OF 4-5 INCHES THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. TRENDS WILL NEED TO MONITORED EACH DAY FOR POSSIBLE
FLOODING CONCERNS IF A MORE CONCENTRATED COMPLEX DEVELOPS. /ALLEN/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              69  85  66  77  64 /  20  30  30  50  50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  68  83  66  77  64 /  20  30  30  50  50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     68  85  67  79  65 /  20  20  10  50  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            66  84  63  74  62 /  30  40  30  50  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           68  89  69  83  67 /  50  -   20  50  50
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        68  84  64  75  63 /  30  40  40  50  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             68  86  68  80  66 /  30  10  10  50  50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        69  84  66  78  65 /  20  20  20  50  50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   70  84  69  80  67 /  10  20  20  50  50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       69  85  69  79  66 /  20  10  10  50  50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           69  86  69  80  67 /  20  10  10  50  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN ANGELO TX

 1152 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Showers and thunderstorms are quickly moving out of the area with
no additional activity to our west, so have removed all mention of
precipitation from TAFs. As models were showing earlier, low
clouds are not materializing, or are rapidly disappearing as they
did around KSJT, so have removed any mention of low clouds as
well. Expect this trend to hold up through the overnight hours as
we are nearing the trough axis at this point, with dry air moving
into the air aloft indicated by WV satellite imagery. VWP loops
show increasingly westerly component to low level winds, so
overall drying is expected to continue. Gusty southerly winds will
continue through the rest of the overnight hours. West to
southwest winds move in tomorrow morning. A cold front will drop
south into the KABI area by around 00Z tomorrow evening, then KSJT
and KBBD around or shortly after 03Z, but may have a hard time
making the I-10 corridor before 06Z tomorrow night.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 942 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Forecast has been updated to remove Severe Thunderstorm Watch 38
from all but Haskell County. Haskell County will be removed after
this line of thunderstorms move through. Expecting wind gusts in
the 40 mph range, but will allow the storms to move through before
cancelling the watch. Have also lowered PoPs across the area
somewhat as the southern end of the line of thunderstorms
continues to decay as it moves east. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 736 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Have updated forecast products for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 38
in effect for areas generally west of a Haskell/Abilene/Ballinger/
San Angelo line through 1 AM. Gusts over 60 mph and hail up to
the size of quarters are possible with these storms. The line
should start moving into Sterling/Irion Counties between 8 and 830
PM, and into the Nolan/Fisher County area between 830 and 9 PM.

20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Skies have cleared, except for a blanket of mid and upper level
clouds across most of west central Texas. A weakly organized
broken band of thunderstorms is moving toward the west central
Texas area this evening. Have these storms moving across our TAF
sites roughly between 01Z(8PM) and 06Z(1AM). These storms have
brought gusts of over 40 knots to areas to our west. This is
likely due to very dry low layers of the atmosphere, and fast
movement of the storms themselves. Will carry a mention of gusty
winds to 35 knots in TEMPO groups at area sites to account for the
possibility of gusty winds. Based on most recent trends (gusts to
35-40 knots), do not expect these to bring severe strength wind
gusts of 50 knots or great at this time, but this cannot be ruled
out. For the rest of the overnight hours, models have become much
less pessimistic with respect to low clouds after 03Z(10PM)
tonight, so will go with higher, but still MVFR (2500 feet) CIGS
at most sites tonight beginning around 06Z(1AM). Winds will remain
south to southeasterly and gusty through most of the overnight.
Winds will shift to the west tomorrow between 12Z(7AM) and
15Z(10AM). 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

Initial shortwave has worked itself off to the east and has taken
the first round of mainly elevated convection with it. A little more
potent shortwave is approaching for late this afternoon and this
evening. At the surface, a fairly diffuse dryline extends across the
Permian Basin northward into the Panhandle. Much sharper feature to
the north where the high clouds have thinned enough to allow much
better mixing and a more defined dryline.

Morning soundings showed a substantial cap to overcome for surface
based convection, and the abundant high clouds limiting sunshine and
heating has so far not weakened the cap enough. However, as the
shortwave approaches, should see the cap finally weaken enough to
see at least scattered convection develop from the Permian Basin
north into the South Plains, with the activity spreading into West
Central Texas by sunset. How much convection we see is still a
question, with the HRRR showing a fairly extensive area of storms
while the TTU WRF shows quite a bit less. Given the shear and at
least some instability, if storms can develop and get organized,
they certainly have the potential to reach severe levels. And given
a 50 kt low level jet developing during the evening, storms may be
slow to dissipate through the evening and into the early morning
hours.

Pacific front shifts east into West Central Texas on Thursday,
although perhaps not quite clearing the eastern sections by
afternoon. May have enough moisture still in place for a few storms
to redevelop across areas of a Brownwood to Junction line.

LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)

Rain chances will continue Thursday night over southern sections
of the forecast where the frontal boundary will be located. The
frontal boundary will continue to provide a focus of thunderstorm
activity Friday and into the weekend as low level winds return to
south and southeasterly allowing isentropic upglide across over
the area. The best chance of additional rainfall will be over the
southern half of the area. Winds aloft will become southwesterly
ahead of an upper level low that will move across the northern
Baja Peninsula Saturday night. Periodic disturbances in the flow
aloft will keep the chance of thunderstorms over the area through
Sunday night. Rain chances will decrease over most of the CWA
from west to east on Monday as the Pacific upper low lifts
northeast from extreme western Texas to the Central Plains.
Residual thunderstorms will still be possible over primarily the
southern CWA through Wednesday as a southwestern flow aloft
reestablishes ahead of another upper level low digging southeast
from the Pacific Northwest to the Central Rockies.

Post-frontal afternoon temperatures on Friday will be in the
lower 70s across the forecast area after Friday morning lows in
50s. Given the continuation of rainfall chances and good cloud
cover through the middle of next week, warm-up will be gradual
with upper 70s for Saturday highs, upper 70s and lower 80s on
Sunday and Monday, and lower 80s for highs on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Morning lows will climb back into the upper 50s to the
lower 60s into the middle of next week.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  66  86  55  73  60 /  20   5  10  20  40
San Angelo  66  87  57  73  61 /  10  10  10  40  40
Junction  66  85  62  75  62 /  20  20  20  40  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

 206 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT OVER NORTHEAST VIRGINIA WILL CONTINUE TO EASE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. THE BOUNDARY WILL THEN
LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH THURSDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT THURSDAY...

NEAR TERM UPDATES TO SHOW HIGHER POPS WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY FARTHER EAST ALL THE WAY INTO PIEDMONT WITH
THIS CURRENT WAVE OF CONVECTION. THUNDER MAY DIMINISH AS IT MOVES
WELL OVER THE WEDGE ENTRENCHED OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE AREA
BUT NOT SURE IT WILL ENTIRELY SO LEFT THUNDER IN ALL THE WAY EAST
THROUGH ABOUT 5 AM. LOWERED MINS IN NORTHEAST BASED ON CURRENT
TEMPS OF UPPER 40S JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA IN CENTRAL
VA.

PREV DISC AS OF 855 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL PROVIDE US WITH
A SHORT BREAK IN THE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED IN OHIO AND
KENTUCKY. THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND
ROTATE ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE TIMING
OF THIS CONVECTION APPEARS A LITTLE FASTER THAN HIRES MODELS
SUGGEST. THE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR UNTIL AROUND 02Z...THEN
THE INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE AS THE SECOND AND THIRD ROUND OF
STORMS APPROACH. LEANED THE POPS TOWARDS A HRRR AND RAP BLEND
BECAUSE OF THE WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS NOTED ON WSR-88D IMAGES
ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA.

IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT...AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE MOST OF THE AREA BY
DAWN. RAINFALL FROM THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT STORMS WILL MOISTEN
THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND CREATE THE LOWER CLOUDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO
THURSDAY...KEEPING CLOUDS LOCKED INTO PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY.

INITIALLY SHAPED TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT TOWARDS
LAMP. THEN WITH THE RICH CLOUD COVER...OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN MILD WITH READINGS FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTH. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S IN THE NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE SOUTH.

AS OF 600 PM EDT TUESDAY...
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN POPS AND WEATHER FOR THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...SHAPING TOWARDS WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR
SOLUTION. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

AS OF 415 PM EDT TUESDAY...

KEEPING OUR EYES ON A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES STRETCHING FROM
VIRGINIA TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON...ALL TRIGGERING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND ALL PROGGED TO RIDE A STATIONARY FRONT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE FIRST LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS WEAKENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF INTERSTATE 64. EXPECT LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS AND POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN AS THE LINE CROSSES
MOUNTAINS...BUT BELIEVE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED AT BEST...IF AT ALL. FURTHER WEST...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY IS EXPECTED TO ENTER OUR MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE COUNTIES AFTER SUNSET...AND CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH OUR WESTERN RIDGES BEFORE
DAWN THURSDAY. INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE AS THE SECOND AND THIRD
ROUND OF STORMS APPROACH...SO BELIEVE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT REMAINS REMOTE.

IN ADDITION TO STORMS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL OVERSPREAD
THE MOST OF THE AREA BY DAWN. BELIEVE THAT RAINFALL ENTERING THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WILL MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AND HELP TO STRENGTHEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AS IT BUILDS
IN...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY...KEEPING CLOUDS LOCKED
INTO PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

CLOUDS WILL MAINTAIN MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NIGHT...HOLDING
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S. WILL STICK TO THE COOL SIDE
OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...HOLDING HIGHS IN THE
LOW AND MID 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. BELIEVE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL THROUGH MID AFTERNOON DUE TO THE MORE WIDESPREAD NATURE
OF THE CLOUD COVER...AND THEN SEE A LATE DAY UPWARD SPIKE IN
TEMPERATURES AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO BREAK UP DURING MAX AFTERNOON
HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

STRONG SHORT WAVE OVER THE UPPER MID WEST WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...THEN ON FRIDAY TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. ANY REMNANTS OF THE SURFACE WEDGE AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS
IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL BE GONE ON THURSDAY
EVENING.

TIMING HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN THE MODELS BRINGING THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT THROUGH A BULK OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA ON FRIDAY.
MODELS WERE FORECASTING BEST INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE
PIEDMONT ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH CAPES OF AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG POSSIBLE. WILL
MAINTAIN MENTION OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

12Z MODELS WERE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY.
WILL MAKE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOCATION BETWEEN 18Z/2PM FRIDAY
AND 00Z SATURDAY/8PM FRIDAY WITH A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF RAIN. MORE
CHALLENGING TO TELL HOW MUCH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THERE WILL BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE ALSO REMOVED
THE RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

WILL BE TRENDING TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR LOWS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL BE STARTING MILD ON FRIDAY BUT LIMITED
HEATING DURING THE MORNING OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL HOLD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. IN THE EAST WHERE THE FRONT COMES THROUGH
LATER...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY COMES THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN TROF ON
SATURDAY SO THE 500 MB LONG WAVE TROF DOES NOT MOVE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. THEN PATTERN RETURNS TO RIDGING
IN THE EAST AND TROFING THE WEST FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. HEIGHTS
AT 500 MB BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WITH A DEEP
CLOSED LOW IN THE WEST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST AREA WILL
BE IN BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TRACKING OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  AT THE SURFACE A SECONDARY FRONT CROSSES
THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT BUT LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK BY THE TIME IT
REACHES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WPC CONSIDERED NORTH AMERICAN AND
GFS ENSEMBLES AS REASONABLE FOR THE UPPER AND SURFACE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF FEATURES FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOLLOWING THE FRONT AND WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL BE OFFSHORE
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WARM...MOIST AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. APPEARS THERE WILL BE NO ORGANIZED LIFTING MECHANISM
TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION BUT ANY DECENT SHORT WAVE SHOULD BE ABLE
TO TRIGGER AT LEAST AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AFTER TEMPERATURES DROP BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...850 MB VALUES
REBOUND MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS HOLD RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 205 AM EDT THURSDAY...

DEALING WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF SHWRS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
THROUGH OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
A FEW SHWRS MAY GET DOWN TO DANVILLE AFTER 08 UTC. WEDGE FRONT
DOWN INTO NORTHERN NC AND INTO NEW RIVER VALLEY AREA AS
WELL...WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT LYH...AND BEHIND THIS WAVE OF SHWRS
AND STORMS SHOULD LOWER TO IFR AT ROA...BCB...AND EVENTUALLY DAN.
MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS IN CURRENT TAFS BUT CONFIDENCE
HIGH WE`LL SEE IFR BEFORE DAWN AT ALL THESE AIRPORTS. KEPT IT MVFR
AT LWB AND BLF BUT LOWER CONF THERE. COULD REMAIN VFR AT BLF WITH
OCCASSIONAL SHOWERS OR STRAY TSTORM OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS HOLD ON THURSDAY...WITH
LOW CEILINGS LINGERING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INTO MID AFTERNOON.
WITH BETTER INSTABILITY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHERE HIGH
PRESSURE HAS LESS INFLUENCE...MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON IN MAXIMUM HEATING.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS LOOKS IN ORDER INTO FRIDAY
WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY. COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY MORNING WITH
ANY SHOWERS SUBSIDING...THOUGH SOME UPSLOPE MVFR CEILINGS MAY
LINGER INTO SATURDAY AT KBLF/KLWB. WIDESPREAD VFR THEN RETURNS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...KK/NF/SK
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...KK/NF/SK




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 600 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

TWO AREAS OF CONCERN TONIGHT FOR PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST WILL BE
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES
BY THE REGION. THE LATEST INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO POINT TO THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AS IT COMES OUT OF
EASTERN IOWA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ON THIS PATH...THE WARM
SECTOR AND THE BEST SUPPORT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE
OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKING AT THE TRENDS IN THE 09.19Z RAP AND
HRRR...THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW LATE
THIS AFTERNOON COULD POSSIBLY CLIP GRANT COUNTY BUT SHOULD BE TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z. BASED ON THIS SCENARIO...WILL ONLY
SHOW ABOUT A 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS FOR EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE OTHER AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE IN THE DEFORMATION AREA ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW. THIS AREA LOOKS TO HAVE SOME PRETTY
GOOD FORCING IN IT THIS EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY
OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND
TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A QUICK SHOT OF
STRONG PV ADVECTION TO OCCUR IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER. THERE IS A
GOOD LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
30S AND 40S ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE LOW AND IN THE 60S AND 70S IN
THE WARM SECTOR. BOTH THE 09.12Z NAM AND GFS SHOW MODERATE TO
STRONG FRONTOGENESIS OCCURRING IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE WITH THIS
BEING THE STRONGEST IN THE 750-650 MB LAYER. THIS FRONTOGENESIS
LOOKS TO SIT UNDERNEATH AN AREA OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
FROM A COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE. THE NAM SUGGESTS THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD GET STRONG ENOUGH TO WRAP THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT
AROUND THE LOW TO PRODUCE 4-6 UBAR/S OF ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE ON THE
295K SURFACE THIS EVENING IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA AS THE
FRONTOGENESIS. LOOKS LIKE THE DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION IS ALREADY
STARTING TO FORM ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND EXPECT THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO GROW AS THE FORCING INCREASES THIS EVENING. WHEN THE
STRONGEST FORCING OCCURS...THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME
HIGH PRECIPITATION RATES TO ALLOW FOR A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW
DESPITE SOME WARM LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY TEMPERATURES. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR THIS TO OCCUR THIS EVENING WILL BE FROM SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE DURATION OF THIS
SHOULD NOT BE VERY LONG OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...BUT THE SNOW
COULD PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR NORTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THIS COULD LEAD TO ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES
ACROSS TAYLOR COUNTY AND WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
HANDLE THIS.

A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.
IT LOOKS LIKE A LOT OF THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL GET SCOURED OUT
BEHIND THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH BUT STILL EXPECT THAT THIS WAVE
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE THEN LOOKS TO BUILD IN BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM AND DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION TO KEEP THE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD DRY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

THE MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
COMING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH SHOULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOME DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE 09.12Z GFS AND ECMWF ON HOW FAST THIS ACTIVITY MOVES
IN SUNDAY WITH THE GFS QUICKER TO BRING IT IN THAN THE ECMWF. WILL
ATTEMPT TO RESOLVE THESE DIFFERENCES WITH LATER FORECASTS ONCE THE
SHORT TERM WEATHER QUIETS DOWN. THE MODELS ALSO ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR LATER IN THE PERIOD BRINGING ANOTHER SYSTEM INTO THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD. WITH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...COULD SEE SOME ACTIVITY FORM
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH
THURSDAY. HAVE LET THE MODEL CONSENSUS GRIDS RIDE WITH THIS SYSTEM
WITH GENERAL 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

CIGS:
1 KFT OR LOWER CIGS SHOULD HOLD ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT SATELLITE TRENDS/RH FIELDS/BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THE BACKEDGE OF THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL SWEEP THROUGH IN THE
08-10Z WINDOW. A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR COULD OCCUR BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRI MORNING-
AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS LOOK LIKELY.

WINDS:
WINDS ARE GOING TO INCREASE AND COULD BE GUSTY THIS EVENING AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF KRST/KLSE. SHOULD SEE
SOME DECREASE IN SPEEDS TOWARD 12Z FRI...BUT WINDS WILL STAY +10 KTS
THROUGH THE DAY FRI.

WX/VSBY:
DEFORMATION REGION OF A STORM SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE AREA
UNDER SHOWERS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
STORM...BUT MOST OF THE INSTABILITY STAYS SOUTH...AND CHANCES LOOK
SMALL ENOUGH TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. EXPECTING SOME
VSBY RESTRICTIONS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT LATEST OBS ARE RATHER
VARIABLE WITHIN AND OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN SHIELD...LOWERING CONFIDENCE
A BIT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED -SHRA IS LIKELY FROM LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. COULD
HAVE SOME DIP INTO MVFR VSBYS WITH THE SHOWERS...BUT MOSTLY P6SM.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT
     FRIDAY FOR WIZ017.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...RIECK



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

 550 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
AND NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 536 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

FCST ISSUES SPAN THE SEASONS THIS EVENING AS STRENGTHENING
CYCLONE LIFTS NEWD FM IA. CLUSTER OF SVR STORMS IN S-C WI HEADING
NE. LOCAL MESO PLOTS SHOW POOL OF INSTABILITY EXPANDING NE...BUT
NOT AS QUICKLY AS THE STORMS ARE MOVG NE. IT/S GOING TO BE A CLOSE
CALL ON WHETHER A SVR STORM COULD CLIP THE SRN PART OF THE FCST
AREA BEFORE WEAKENING. THE PRIMARY SVR THREAT WOULD BE HAIL...AND
THINK THAT WOULD NEED TO HAPPEN WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HRS...BEFORE
PCPN GETS TOO WIDESPREAD.

IT/S A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SITN ACRS THE NW CORNER OF THE FCST
AREA...WHERE THE THREAT IS HEAVY SNOW. WATCHING THE UPR
DEFORMATION ZONE EXPAND NEWD AS MAIN SHRTWV EJECTS TOWARD WI.
EXTRAOLATION OF SRN EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE WOULD BRING IT
ACRS THE NW PART OF THE FCST AREA. MAIN QUESTIONS FOR SNOW AMNTS
CONTINUE TO BE TIMING OF THE CHANGEOVER AND HOW MUCH PCPN FALLS
AFTER THAT TIME. NRN STREAM SHRTWV EDGING IN FM THE NW MAY TEND TO
DISRUPT THE COMMA HEAD AND NUDGE IT EWD...LIMITING THE AMNT OF
PCPN THAT FALLS AFTER THE CHANGEOVER. ON THE OTHER HAND...PCPN
COULD BE FALLING QUITE HEAVILY AFTER THE CHANGEOVER...SO THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW. NEED TO WATCH THIS
VERY CLOSELY...BUT LIKELY WON/T BE ABLE TO MAKE ANY HEADLINE
CHANGES UNTIL WE START TO SEE THE CHANGEOVER OCCURRING.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LOW
PRESSURE HEADING NORTHEAST AS IT ENTERS SOUTH-CENTRAL IOWA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.  COMMA HEAD PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING JUST TO THE
REAR OF THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WHERE
HEAVY SNOW AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN DETECTED.
DOWNSTREAM OF THE SYSTEM...A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IS GENERATING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF WISCONSIN.  MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED AS THEY REACHED THE WAUTOMA TO
MANITOWOC CORRIDOR SINCE ELEVATED INSTABILITY HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO
EXTEND THAT FAR NORTH.  AS A RESULT...LOOK FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON.  THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND HEAVY WINTRY
PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE SOUTH AS A
CYCLONE PASSES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...THE STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER NEBRASKA WILL SWING NORTHEAST AS
IT PUSHES A SURFACE LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF ILLINOIS TO
CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE STRAITS OF MACKINAC.  AHEAD OF THE
LOW...ELEVATED INSTABILITY UP TO 500 J/KG MAY SNEAK INTO
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITHIN A REGION OF STRONG UPWARD MOTION WHICH
COULD GENERATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH AROUND MID-EVENING.
IF THUNDERSTORMS DO OCCUR...SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW...EXCELLENT UPPER DIVERGENCE COMBINED WITH
STRONG MID-LEVEL FGEN AND REDUCED STABILITY WILL LEAD TO A HEALTHY
DEFORMATION BAND DEVELOPING FROM WEST-CENTRAL TO NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.  THIS DEFORMATION BAND WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP AT TIMES.  WITH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
MIDDLE 30S AT THE START OF THE EVENING...PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE ALL
RAIN FOR THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS.  THEN COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY GET
DRAWN INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO CHANGE PRECIP TO SLEET AND
THEN SNOW.  BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE NORTH COULD SEE A FEW
HOUR PERIOD OF SLEET WHICH COULD LEAD TO DECENT SLEET ACCUMULATIONS
GIVEN THE EXPECTED PRECIP RATES.  THEN ONCE TEMPS COOL ENOUGH FOR
ALL SNOW...SNOWFALL RATES COULD EASILY EXCEED AN INCH PER HOUR AT
TIMES.  BUT ONE OF THE MOST DIFFICULT ASPECTS OF THIS FORECAST IS IN
REGARDS TO HOW QUICKLY THIS CHANGE OVER OCCURS SINCE COLD AIR IS NOT
THAT PLENTIFUL TO OUR NORTH.  BEST GUESS FROM GUIDANCE INDICATES
THIS CHANGE OVER WILL OCCUR LATE THIS EVENING OVER N-C WISCONSIN AND
EARLY OVERNIGHT OVER TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE IRON MOUNTAIN
AREA.  THE INITIAL RAIN AND SLEET WILL EAT UP SOME OF THE QPF
AMOUNTS THIS EVENING...BUT GUIDANCE STILL POINT TOWARDS OVER A HALF
INCH FALLING AFTER 06Z.  ADDITIONALLY...THE HI-RES MODELS ARE ALSO
INDICATING BANDING TAKING PLACE...AND A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST
THAN SHOWN PREVIOUSLY.  HAVE SHIFTED QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS TO THE
EAST AS A RESULT...WHICH GIVES SNOW AMOUNTS OF 3-6 INCHES FROM
LINCOLN AND LANGLADE ON NORTH.  A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF THAT
COULD TURN OUT TO BE SLEET ACCUMULATION.  LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE SNOW BANDS SET UP.  BECAUSE
OF THIS UNCERTAINTY...WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM
02Z-13Z.

FRIDAY...PRECIP WITH SNOW WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY AND RAIN TO THE
EAST WILL DIMINISH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  SHOULD SEE A CLOUDY AND
WINDY START TO THE DAY OTHERWISE.  A TRAILING SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD CREATE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.  LEFT A SMALL
CHANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.  HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S NORTH TO
LOW 50S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

PCPN TRENDS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AND DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. USED
A BLEND OF THE BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE SETS FOR MIN TEMPS...BUT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A LINGERING SNOW COVER OVER NC WI...HAVE BUMPED MIN
TEMPS DOWN THERE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
WITH DEVELOPING SOUTH FLOW RESULTING IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN WI ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY EVENING. HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
ARRIVAL TIME OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON (MAINLY NC/C WI LATE
IN THE DAY)...BUT WILL SPREAD HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS OVER THE
ENTIRE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. H8 LI`S SLIGHTLY BLO ZERO AND STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLD TSTMS...SO
HAVE INCLUDED A SLGT CHC OF TSTMS.

HIGH PRESSURE AND AND ASSOCIATED DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO WISCONSIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THE FCST BECOMES A BIT MUDDLED DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS
SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AND LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT EDGE TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MOST MODELS NOW KEEP
TUESDAY NIGHT DRY...WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING PCPN INTO THE REGION
ON WEDS...AND THE GFS HOLDING OFF UNTIL ABOUT THURSDAY. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CARRY CHC POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT ANY PCPN THAT OCCURS SHOULD FALL AS ALL RAIN...WHICH
IS DEFINITELY A STEP IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 536 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

WL CARRY THUNDER OVER THE SRN 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA FOR A FEW HRS
THIS EVENING. VERY POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS DURING THE FIRST PORTION
OF THE TAF PERIOD WL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FRIDAY AS THE CYCLONE PULLS
AWAY FM THE REGION.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CDT
FRIDAY FOR WIZ011-012-019.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT
FRIDAY FOR WIZ005-010-018.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 350 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

TWO AREAS OF CONCERN TONIGHT FOR PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST WILL BE
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES
BY THE REGION. THE LATEST INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO POINT TO THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AS IT COMES OUT OF
EASTERN IOWA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ON THIS PATH...THE WARM
SECTOR AND THE BEST SUPPORT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE
OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKING AT THE TRENDS IN THE 09.19Z RAP AND
HRRR...THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW LATE
THIS AFTERNOON COULD POSSIBLY CLIP GRANT COUNTY BUT SHOULD BE TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z. BASED ON THIS SCENARIO...WILL ONLY
SHOW ABOUT A 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS FOR EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE OTHER AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE IN THE DEFORMATION AREA ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW. THIS AREA LOOKS TO HAVE SOME PRETTY
GOOD FORCING IN IT THIS EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY
OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND
TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A QUICK SHOT OF
STRONG PV ADVECTION TO OCCUR IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER. THERE IS A
GOOD LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
30S AND 40S ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE LOW AND IN THE 60S AND 70S IN
THE WARM SECTOR. BOTH THE 09.12Z NAM AND GFS SHOW MODERATE TO
STRONG FRONTOGENESIS OCCURRING IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE WITH THIS
BEING THE STRONGEST IN THE 750-650 MB LAYER. THIS FRONTOGENESIS
LOOKS TO SIT UNDERNEATH AN AREA OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
FROM A COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE. THE NAM SUGGESTS THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD GET STRONG ENOUGH TO WRAP THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT
AROUND THE LOW TO PRODUCE 4-6 UBAR/S OF ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE ON THE
295K SURFACE THIS EVENING IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA AS THE
FRONTOGENESIS. LOOKS LIKE THE DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION IS ALREADY
STARTING TO FORM ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND EXPECT THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO GROW AS THE FORCING INCREASES THIS EVENING. WHEN THE
STRONGEST FORCING OCCURS...THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME
HIGH PRECIPITATION RATES TO ALLOW FOR A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW
DESPITE SOME WARM LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY TEMPERATURES. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR THIS TO OCCUR THIS EVENING WILL BE FROM SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE DURATION OF THIS
SHOULD NOT BE VERY LONG OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...BUT THE SNOW
COULD PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR NORTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THIS COULD LEAD TO ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES
ACROSS TAYLOR COUNTY AND WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
HANDLE THIS.

A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.
IT LOOKS LIKE A LOT OF THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL GET SCOURED OUT
BEHIND THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH BUT STILL EXPECT THAT THIS WAVE
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE THEN LOOKS TO BUILD IN BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM AND DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION TO KEEP THE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD DRY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

THE MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
COMING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH SHOULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOME DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE 09.12Z GFS AND ECMWF ON HOW FAST THIS ACTIVITY MOVES
IN SUNDAY WITH THE GFS QUICKER TO BRING IT IN THAN THE ECMWF. WILL
ATTEMPT TO RESOLVE THESE DIFFERENCES WITH LATER FORECASTS ONCE THE
SHORT TERM WEATHER QUIETS DOWN. THE MODELS ALSO ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR LATER IN THE PERIOD BRINGING ANOTHER SYSTEM INTO THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD. WITH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...COULD SEE SOME ACTIVITY FORM
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH
THURSDAY. HAVE LET THE MODEL CONSENSUS GRIDS RIDE WITH THIS SYSTEM
WITH GENERAL 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

PERIODS OF IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOOK FOR WINDS TO INCREASE  OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST AS THE LOW APPROACHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN
TURN NORTHWEST AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.
LOOK FOR NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 18 TO 23 KTS TONIGHT WITH
GUSTS OF AROUND 35 KTS POSSIBLE. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT
     FRIDAY FOR WIZ017.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...WETENKAMP



FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE



 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LOW
PRESSURE HEADING NORTHEAST AS IT ENTERS SOUTH-CENTRAL IOWA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.  COMMA HEAD PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING JUST TO THE
REAR OF THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WHERE
HEAVY SNOW AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN DETECTED.
DOWNSTREAM OF THE SYSTEM...A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IS GENERATING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF WISCONSIN.  MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED AS THEY REACHED THE WAUTOMA TO
MANITOWOC CORRIDOR SINCE ELEVATED INSTABILITY HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO
EXTEND THAT FAR NORTH.  AS A RESULT...LOOK FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON.  THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND HEAVY WINTRY
PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE SOUTH AS A
CYCLONE PASSES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...THE STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER NEBRASKA WILL SWING NORTHEAST AS
IT PUSHES A SURFACE LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF ILLINOIS TO
CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE STRAITS OF MACKINAC.  AHEAD OF THE
LOW...ELEVATED INSTABILITY UP TO 500 J/KG MAY SNEAK INTO
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITHIN A REGION OF STRONG UPWARD MOTION WHICH
COULD GENERATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH AROUND MID-EVENING.
IF THUNDERSTORMS DO OCCUR...SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW...EXCELLENT UPPER DIVERGENCE COMBINED WITH
STRONG MID-LEVEL FGEN AND REDUCED STABILITY WILL LEAD TO A HEALTHY
DEFORMATION BAND DEVELOPING FROM WEST-CENTRAL TO NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.  THIS DEFORMATION BAND WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP AT TIMES.  WITH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
MIDDLE 30S AT THE START OF THE EVENING...PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE ALL
RAIN FOR THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS.  THEN COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY GET
DRAWN INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO CHANGE PRECIP TO SLEET AND
THEN SNOW.  BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE NORTH COULD SEE A FEW
HOUR PERIOD OF SLEET WHICH COULD LEAD TO DECENT SLEET ACCUMULATIONS
GIVEN THE EXPECTED PRECIP RATES.  THEN ONCE TEMPS COOL ENOUGH FOR
ALL SNOW...SNOWFALL RATES COULD EASILY EXCEED AN INCH PER HOUR AT
TIMES.  BUT ONE OF THE MOST DIFFICULT ASPECTS OF THIS FORECAST IS IN
REGARDS TO HOW QUICKLY THIS CHANGE OVER OCCURS SINCE COLD AIR IS NOT
THAT PLENTIFUL TO OUR NORTH.  BEST GUESS FROM GUIDANCE INDICATES
THIS CHANGE OVER WILL OCCUR LATE THIS EVENING OVER N-C WISCONSIN AND
EARLY OVERNIGHT OVER TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE IRON MOUNTAIN
AREA.  THE INITIAL RAIN AND SLEET WILL EAT UP SOME OF THE QPF
AMOUNTS THIS EVENING...BUT GUIDANCE STILL POINT TOWARDS OVER A HALF
INCH FALLING AFTER 06Z.  ADDITIONALLY...THE HI-RES MODELS ARE ALSO
INDICATING BANDING TAKING PLACE...AND A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST
THAN SHOWN PREVIOUSLY.  HAVE SHIFTED QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS TO THE
EAST AS A RESULT...WHICH GIVES SNOW AMOUNTS OF 3-6 INCHES FROM
LINCOLN AND LANGLADE ON NORTH.  A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF THAT
COULD TURN OUT TO BE SLEET ACCUMULATION.  LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE SNOW BANDS SET UP.  BECAUSE
OF THIS UNCERTAINTY...WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM
02Z-13Z.

FRIDAY...PRECIP WITH SNOW WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY AND RAIN TO THE
EAST WILL DIMINISH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  SHOULD SEE A CLOUDY AND
WINDY START TO THE DAY OTHERWISE.  A TRAILING SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD CREATE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.  LEFT A SMALL
CHANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.  HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S NORTH TO
LOW 50S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

PCPN TRENDS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AND DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. USED
A BLEND OF THE BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE SETS FOR MIN TEMPS...BUT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A LINGERING SNOW COVER OVER NC WI...HAVE BUMPED MIN
TEMPS DOWN THERE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
WITH DEVELOPING SOUTH FLOW RESULTING IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN WI ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY EVENING. HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
ARRIVAL TIME OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON (MAINLY NC/C WI LATE
IN THE DAY)...BUT WILL SPREAD HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS OVER THE
ENTIRE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. H8 LI`S SLIGHTLY BLO ZERO AND STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLD TSTMS...SO
HAVE INCLUDED A SLGT CHC OF TSTMS.

HIGH PRESSURE AND AND ASSOCIATED DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO WISCONSIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THE FCST BECOMES A BIT MUDDLED DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS
SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AND LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT EDGE TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MOST MODELS NOW KEEP
TUESDAY NIGHT DRY...WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING PCPN INTO THE REGION
ON WEDS...AND THE GFS HOLDING OFF UNTIL ABOUT THURSDAY. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CARRY CHC POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT ANY PCPN THAT OCCURS SHOULD FALL AS ALL RAIN...WHICH
IS DEFINITELY A STEP IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
EVENING AS A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN.  AHEAD OF THE
LOW...AREAS OF SHOWERS AND FOG WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MIXED IN OVER CENTRAL TO
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  THEN AS THE LOW PASSES...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO
SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE SEVERAL INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE...HIGHEST OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN INCLUDING RHI.
THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF LATE TONIGHT AT THE SAME TIME AS NORTHWEST
WINDS BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY.  CIGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FRIDAY
MORNING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CDT
FRIDAY FOR WIZ011-012-019.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT
FRIDAY FOR WIZ005-010-018.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MPC






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 1243 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

.UPDATE...THIS AFTERNOON
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON GRANT...CLAYTON...CRAWFORD...AND RICHLAND
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. LATEST
MESOSCALE FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST STORMS WILL INITIATE OVER EAST
CENTRAL IOWA AND PUSH NORTH INTO THESE COUNTIES BY 3 TO 4 PM.
CURRENTLY THE WARM FRONT IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS
INTO EAST CENTRAL IOWA AND IS MAKING NORTHWARD PROGRESS AS A
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF NEBRASKA. WE SHOULD SEE
A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40 TO 50 KTS WOULD
FAVOR SUPERCELLS  AND WITH 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUE APPROACHING 35
KTS THERE WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH SHEAR TO SUPPORT A TORNADO OR
TWO. HOWEVER SURFACE BASED CAPE LOOKS TO STAY JUST SOUTHEAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH VALUES CLIMBING TO 2000-2500 J/KG ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL IOWA. THE BIG QUESTION IS
WHETHER OR NOT WE CAN GET SURFACE BASED STORMS INTO GRANT COUNTY.
BEING THAT THIS AREA IS NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT WE WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON ANY STORMS IN THIS LOCATION WITH AN ENHANCED
POTENTIAL FOR A ISOLATED TORNADO. THE MORE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS
APPEAR TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AT THIS TIME. KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON THE FORECAST  THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

SEVERAL IMPULSES ARE EVIDENT IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PER
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING. FIRST IMPULSE
PUSHING INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE LATEST 09.06Z RAP SHOWS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN WISCONSIN ON NOSE OF DECENT 925-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LATEST
MOSAIC RADAR INDICATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
WISCONSIN INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN.

FIRST IMPULSE PUSHES NORTHEAST OF FORECAST AREA BY 10Z AND NEXT
IMPULSE OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL TRACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY
12Z. THE 09.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FORECAST AREA
WILL BE ON THE NOSE OF 925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
CONVERGENCE BY 12Z THURSDAY. WITH CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
IMPULSE OCCURRING OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA. EXPECT THIS CONVECTION
TO MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 12Z THURSDAY. THIS IS
EVIDENT BY THE LATEST HIRES MODELS 09.06Z HRRR AND 09.00Z ARW.

NEXT CONCERN THEN WILL BE SEVERE CHANCES ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH ONGOING CONVECTION IN
THE MORNING HOURS AND THE LATEST 09.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF AND 09.06Z
TRACK SURFACE LOW OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE SEVERE POSSIBILITIES ARE BECOMING LOWER ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 09.00Z NAM SUGGEST 0-6KM MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG IN THE SOUTHERN MOST FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY HIGHER 0-6KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF
1500 J/KG...DUE TO A SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTHWEST SURFACE LOW TRACK
THAN THE NAM. THE 09.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRONG SHEAR
IN THE 0-3KM LAYER...APPROACHING 50 KNOTS. A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/WAVE/SURFACE LOW COULD BE SEVERE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
MOST FORECAST AREA...MOST LIKELY GRANT COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. MAIN THREATS WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AND ISOLATED TORNADO OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN MOST FORECAST AREA.

FOCUS TURNS TO SURFACE LOW/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/WAVE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF WISCONSIN. THE LATEST 09.00Z GFS/NAM HAVE SHIFTED
SURFACE LOW TRACK SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS PER
DPROG/DT. THIS WILL HAVE IMPACT ON TRACK OF FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE
LOW. BOTH THE 09.00Z GFS/NAM SHOW STRONG LIFT WITH THE FRONTOGENETIC
BAND PER CROSS SECTIONS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS OVER SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. CONCERN WILL BE TEMPERATURES. THE
09.00Z MODELS WANT TO COOL ATMOSPHERE NEAR/AT/BELOW FREEZING AND
CHANGE PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW OR MIX SNOW IN WITH THE RAIN OVER
WESTERN WISCONSIN. FOR NOW...MAINLY HAVE RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH
POTENTIAL ALL SNOW OVER PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF 1...POSSIBLY 2
INCHES COULD ACCUMULATE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
HOWEVER...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DEPENDING
ON WHERE THE FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF PRECIPITATION TRACKS AND
TEMPERATURE PROFILE OVER EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO
CANADA...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW
MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. THE 09.00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS INDICATE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS...DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURES...TO DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WHERE BETTER SATURATION/LIFT
EXIST.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGION...PROVIDING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE AREA.

NEXT FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE 09.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING
WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES AND AMPLIFY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES...
THE 09.00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A SLOWER SOLUTION ON
LIFTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED NORTHWARD INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGION MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HAVE
REMOVED PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT BASED ON
THIS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

PERIODS OF IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOOK FOR WINDS TO INCREASE  OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST AS THE LOW APPROACHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN
TURN NORTHWEST AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.
LOOK FOR NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 18 TO 23 KTS TONIGHT WITH
GUSTS OF AROUND 35 KTS POSSIBLE. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WETENKAMP
SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...WETENKAMP




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 703 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

SEVERAL IMPULSES ARE EVIDENT IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PER
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING. FIRST IMPULSE
PUSHING INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE LATEST 09.06Z RAP SHOWS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN WISCONSIN ON NOSE OF DECENT 925-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LATEST
MOSAIC RADAR INDICATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
WISCONSIN INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN.

FIRST IMPULSE PUSHES NORTHEAST OF FORECAST AREA BY 10Z AND NEXT
IMPULSE OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL TRACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY
12Z. THE 09.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FORECAST AREA
WILL BE ON THE NOSE OF 925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
CONVERGENCE BY 12Z THURSDAY. WITH CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
IMPULSE OCCURRING OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA. EXPECT THIS CONVECTION
TO MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 12Z THURSDAY. THIS IS
EVIDENT BY THE LATEST HIRES MODELS 09.06Z HRRR AND 09.00Z ARW.

NEXT CONCERN THEN WILL BE SEVERE CHANCES ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH ONGOING CONVECTION IN
THE MORNING HOURS AND THE LATEST 09.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF AND 09.06Z
TRACK SURFACE LOW OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE SEVERE POSSIBILITIES ARE BECOMING LOWER ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 09.00Z NAM SUGGEST 0-6KM MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG IN THE SOUTHERN MOST FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY HIGHER 0-6KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF
1500 J/KG...DUE TO A SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTHWEST SURFACE LOW TRACK
THAN THE NAM. THE 09.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRONG SHEAR
IN THE 0-3KM LAYER...APPROACHING 50 KNOTS. A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/WAVE/SURFACE LOW COULD BE SEVERE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
MOST FORECAST AREA...MOST LIKELY GRANT COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. MAIN THREATS WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AND ISOLATED TORNADO OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN MOST FORECAST AREA.

FOCUS TURNS TO SURFACE LOW/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/WAVE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF WISCONSIN. THE LATEST 09.00Z GFS/NAM HAVE SHIFTED
SURFACE LOW TRACK SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS PER
DPROG/DT. THIS WILL HAVE IMPACT ON TRACK OF FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE
LOW. BOTH THE 09.00Z GFS/NAM SHOW STRONG LIFT WITH THE FRONTOGENETIC
BAND PER CROSS SECTIONS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS OVER SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. CONCERN WILL BE TEMPERATURES. THE
09.00Z MODELS WANT TO COOL ATMOSPHERE NEAR/AT/BELOW FREEZING AND
CHANGE PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW OR MIX SNOW IN WITH THE RAIN OVER
WESTERN WISCONSIN. FOR NOW...MAINLY HAVE RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH
POTENTIAL ALL SNOW OVER PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF 1...POSSIBLY 2
INCHES COULD ACCUMULATE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
HOWEVER...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DEPENDING
ON WHERE THE FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF PRECIPITATION TRACKS AND
TEMPERATURE PROFILE OVER EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO
CANADA...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW
MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. THE 09.00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS INDICATE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS...DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURES...TO DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WHERE BETTER SATURATION/LIFT
EXIST.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGION...PROVIDING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE AREA.

NEXT FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE 09.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING
WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES AND AMPLIFY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES...
THE 09.00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A SLOWER SOLUTION ON
LIFTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED NORTHWARD INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGION MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HAVE
REMOVED PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT BASED ON
THIS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 703 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TODAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TAF SITES
LOOKS TO BE FROM 09.13Z AND 09.15Z. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN...SO IT WAS
NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. CEILINGS THROUGHOUT THE TIME PERIOD WILL
BE MAINLY LIFR/IFR AT KRST AND IFR/MVFR AT KRST. VISIBILITIES
THROUGH 10.06Z WILL BE ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 3 MILES AT KRST AND
MVFR/VFR AT KLSE. THROUGH TODAY THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT
10 KNOTS OR LESS AND THEN SWITCH TO THE WEST THIS EVENING AND
CLIMB TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 30 TO 35 KNOT
RANGE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...BOYNE




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 336 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

SEVERAL IMPULSES ARE EVIDENT IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PER
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING. FIRST IMPULSE
PUSHING INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE LATEST 09.06Z RAP SHOWS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN WISCONSIN ON NOSE OF DECENT 925-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LATEST
MOSAIC RADAR INDICATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
WISCONSIN INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN.

FIRST IMPULSE PUSHES NORTHEAST OF FORECAST AREA BY 10Z AND NEXT
IMPULSE OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL TRACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY
12Z. THE 09.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FORECAST AREA
WILL BE ON THE NOSE OF 925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
CONVERGENCE BY 12Z THURSDAY. WITH CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
IMPULSE OCCURRING OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA. EXPECT THIS CONVECTION
TO MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 12Z THURSDAY. THIS IS
EVIDENT BY THE LATEST HIRES MODELS 09.06Z HRRR AND 09.00Z ARW.

NEXT CONCERN THEN WILL BE SEVERE CHANCES ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH ONGOING CONVECTION IN
THE MORNING HOURS AND THE LATEST 09.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF AND 09.06Z
TRACK SURFACE LOW OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE SEVERE POSSIBILITIES ARE BECOMING LOWER ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 09.00Z NAM SUGGEST 0-6KM MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG IN THE SOUTHERN MOST FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY HIGHER 0-6KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF
1500 J/KG...DUE TO A SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTHWEST SURFACE LOW TRACK
THAN THE NAM. THE 09.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRONG SHEAR
IN THE 0-3KM LAYER...APPROACHING 50 KNOTS. A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/WAVE/SURFACE LOW COULD BE SEVERE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
MOST FORECAST AREA...MOST LIKELY GRANT COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. MAIN THREATS WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AND ISOLATED TORNADO OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN MOST FORECAST AREA.

FOCUS TURNS TO SURFACE LOW/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/WAVE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF WISCONSIN. THE LATEST 09.00Z GFS/NAM HAVE SHIFTED
SURFACE LOW TRACK SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS PER
DPROG/DT. THIS WILL HAVE IMPACT ON TRACK OF FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE
LOW. BOTH THE 09.00Z GFS/NAM SHOW STRONG LIFT WITH THE FRONTOGENETIC
BAND PER CROSS SECTIONS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS OVER SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. CONCERN WILL BE TEMPERATURES. THE
09.00Z MODELS WANT TO COOL ATMOSPHERE NEAR/AT/BELOW FREEZING AND
CHANGE PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW OR MIX SNOW IN WITH THE RAIN OVER
WESTERN WISCONSIN. FOR NOW...MAINLY HAVE RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH
POTENTIAL ALL SNOW OVER PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF 1...POSSIBLY 2
INCHES COULD ACCUMULATE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
HOWEVER...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DEPENDING
ON WHERE THE FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF PRECIPITATION TRACKS AND
TEMPERATURE PROFILE OVER EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO
CANADA...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW
MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. THE 09.00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS INDICATE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS...DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURES...TO DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WHERE BETTER SATURATION/LIFT
EXIST.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGION...PROVIDING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE AREA.

NEXT FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE 09.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING
WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES AND AMPLIFY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES...
THE 09.00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A SLOWER SOLUTION ON
LIFTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED NORTHWARD INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGION MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HAVE
REMOVED PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT BASED ON
THIS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015

CIGS...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH MOST
CIGS HOVERING AROUND OR BELOW 1 KFT. VARIOUS BOUTS OF SHRA/TS WILL
KEEP CIGS LOWS...AS WILL POOLED MOISTURE UNDER A STRONG LOW LEVEL
INVERSION.

WINDS...
WINDS WILL GO FROM EAST TO NORTH NORTH/NORTHWEST THU
AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES JUST SOUTH OF THE TAF
SITES. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW
SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SUSTAINED WINDS - ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER GUSTS - THU NIGHT.

WX/VSBY...
BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO THU NIGHT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL HOUR BREAKS BETWEEN
THEM...BUT TRYING TO FERRET OUT EXACT TIMING IS PROBLEMATIC...SO
WON/T GET THAT REFINED IN THE FORECAST.

FOR THUNDER CHANCES...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW MEAGER INSTABILITY A
LOFT...AND INTERESTINGLY MOST OF IT IS ABOVE THE SATURATED LAYER.
THAT SAID...A FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND APPROACHED KRST/KLSE.
HAD TO UPDATE PREVIOUS TAFS TO INCLUDE MENTION FOR A FEW HOURS PAST
06Z. RUC GRADUALLY SINKS THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT. COULD BE ISOLATED THUNDER THU INTO THU NIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

ALSO OF NOTE IN THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS IS THE SOMEWHAT SHALLOW NATURE
OF A LOT OF THE SATURATION. IN MANY WAYS ITS MORE SUGGESTIVE OF A
HEAVY DRIZZLE RATHER THAN SHRA/RA TYPE EVENT. HAVE NOTED DRIZZLE
ALREADY THIS EVENING...BEFORE SHOWERS MOVED IN. THU AFTERNOON SEEMS
TO FAVOR DRIZZLE TOO.

VSBYS WILL BE RESTRICTED IN THE HEAVIER PCPN...ESPECIALLY IF HEAVY
DRIZZLE MANIFESTS. SOME FOG SHOULD HELP LOWER VSBYS OVERNIGHT INTO
THU MORNING.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION.....RIECK





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

 1229 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1229 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015

THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS AND AMPLE SUNSHINE AS
HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL REACH TO NEAR 60S DEGREES...AND
INTO THE MID 60S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2015

987MB SURFACE LOW LIFTING INTO QUEBEC AT PRESS TIME WITH A
SECONDARY VORT MAX AND SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH CURRENTLY ROTATING
THROUGH CHICAGO. BRIEF RELAXATION OF PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY HAS ALLOWED WIND SPEEDS TO SUBSIDE A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM SURFACE OBS SHOW NUMEROUS GUSTS OVER
40 KTS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY DEEP MIXING HEIGHTS IN PLACE OVER OUR AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH 50 KT WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND A GOOD PUSH OF ISENTROPIC DESCENT SEEN MOVING IN BEHIND
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. MSAS ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS A DECENT PRESSURE
RISE-FALL COUPLET ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THAT MAY BE HELPING PRODUCE
THE HIGHER WIND GUSTS. WE DO START TO LOSE DIURNAL SURFACE
HEATING/BETTER PBL MIXING BY THE TIME THIS TROUGH MAKES IT TO OUR
AREA BUT AM CONCERNED WE COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES...DURING THE EARLY
EVENING AND AM HESITANT TO SOUND THE "ALL CLEAR" ON STRONG WIND
GUSTS. HAVE THEREFORE DECIDED TO EXTEND AND EXPAND THE WIND
ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN PLACE.

THIS SECONDARY PV ANOMALY...EXTENDING DEEP INTO THE
TROPOSPHERE...MAY ALSO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AS IT ROTATES THROUGH
THE REGION THIS EVENING. UPSTREAM RADAR/SURFACE OBS SHOW DECENT
SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...OCCURRING WITH THIS WAVE
AND SUSPECT SIMILAR RESULTS IN OUR LOCAL AREA. MOST OF THE LATEST
HI-RES/RAPID UPDATE MODELS GENERATE AT LEAST SOME QPF IN OUR
NORTHERN CWA AND SEE NO REASON TO ARGUE BASED ON STRENGTH/DEPTH OF
THE ANOMALY SEEN IN BOTH WV IMAGERY AND MODEL PLAN VIEWS. HAVE
THEREFORE RAISED POPS FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES IN THE 22-03Z
TIMEFRAME. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THESE SHOWERS COULD HELP MIX DOWN
SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE THIS
EVENING....PROVIDING FURTHER SUPPORT FOR A SIMPLE EXTENSION OF THE
CURRENT WIND ADVISORY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD EASILY DROP INTO THE MID 30S UNDER STRONG CAA.
STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO INHERITED FORECAST...WHICH WAS SIMILAR TO
LATEST MOS GUIDANCE. WELCOME RETURN TO MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER BY
TOMORROW AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE ANTICYCLONE BUILD
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. SOME LATE DAY WAA AND FULL SUN SHOULD PUSH US TO
AROUND 60F DESPITE COOL START.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2015

LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OUT QUIET...WITH AN AMPLIFYING 500MB
RIDGE ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
SATURDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL START OUT CLEAR IN THE EVENING...THEN
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WEST AND CENTRAL AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOWS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE BUT NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST GIVEN
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. KEPT GOING FORECAST OF TEMPS IN THE
MID-UPPER 30S.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND FORECAST COMPLEXITY RETURN LATE
WEEKEND AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...WITH A COMPLICATED
PATTERN AND THE ASSOCIATED MODEL DISAGREEMENT.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING THE CWA SITS ON THE OUTER EDGE OF THE SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH BY THIS TIME IS JUST OFF THE EASTERN US
COAST. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS VARIOUS SHORTWAVES PROPAGATE THROUGH THE
FLOW FROM THE DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER MANITOBA. BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH/COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM MN/WI SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GENERAL DISAGREEMENT
AMONG MODELS ON EXACT TIMING OF ANY PRECIPITATION...WITH THE GFS
BEING MOST PROGRESSIVE AND DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN OUR CWA...AND THE NAM/GEM ECMWF
WAITING UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING TO BRING IN PRECIPITATION.
THE ECMWF CAMP IS ALSO A BIT SHARPER WITH THE UL TROUGH...WHEREAS
THE GFS IS MORE BROAD. DECIDED TO GO WITH A GFS/ECMWF COMPROMISE FOR
NOW WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF POPS. THIS BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING AND HAS IT EXITING THE EASTERN CWA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AND HAVE POPS/WINDS REFLECTING THIS. MOISTURE WILL BE
AMPLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 1.3 INCHES
WITH RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SFC HIGH AND APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH TO WEST...PULLING MOISTURE RIGHT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
FRONT MOVEMENT SHOULD BE PRETTY QUICK...AND INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL
SO DONT REALLY HAVE ANY CONCERNS FOR STORMS WITH THIS. DID ADD A
SLGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER LATE SUN NIGHT WITH SOME MODELS GENERATING
100-200 J/KG OF MUCAPE...BUT NOT REALLY CONFIDENT IN THAT OCCURRING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN UNDERNEATH A BUILDING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH
MODELS APPEAR TO AGREE ON. AS A RESULT...KEPT THINGS DRY FOR THAT
TIME.

HOWEVER...BY MID TO LATE WEEK...PROBLEMS DEVELOP AS THEY
ATTEMPT TO RESOLVE SPLIT FLOW ALOFT...WITH A TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS 00Z WED...AND ANOTHER
TROUGH/POTENTIAL CLOSED LOW MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIE THROUGH THURSDAY. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF DEVELOP A SURFACE/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE DAKOTAS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR
CWA...AND INTO KY/TN. THIS BRINGS US SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY...AND HIGHER POPS INTO THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS
THE PATTERN SOLIDIFIES INTO A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE MIDWEST. THE LOW
EVENTUALLY DRIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...BUT AS TO
STRENGTH/TIMING/EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH THE LOW MOVES....ITS ALL UP IN
THE AIR. KEPT CONSENSUS CHANCE POPS IN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH
CHANCE THUNDER ONLY ON THURSDAY WHEN BOTH MODELS HAVE US IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THE OCCLUDED SFC LOW. CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS
LOWER...GIVEN MODEL DISCREPANCIES AND DIFFICULTIES HANDLING THE
MERGING FEATURES. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...LOOKS TO STAY NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S/UPPER 50S NEAR THE
LAKE/ AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015

VFR/DRY WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS TOWARD THE OH
VALLEY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WICHITA KS

 330 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND A WEAK TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE ALOFT
HAS OVERCOME SEEMINGLY MODEST MOISTURE AND RESULTED IN SCATTERED
ELEVATED SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS FROM NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LATEST RUC HAS
THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS ACTIVITY WHICH LINGERS IT INTO THE 12Z-
15Z TIME FRAME ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. STRONGER ELEVATED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ALOFT MIGRATES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS WILL ALLOW DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS LATER
TODAY TO DEVELOP/MOVE EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...BEFORE RENEWED SURFACE BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. WHILE INTENSITY SHOULD
DECREASE BY SUNDAY EVENING...COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE ALONG
THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS. COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS STILL ON TAP FOR MONDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK TO INCREASE BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
WITH THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER TROF MOVING FROM
THE ROCKIES AND BECOMING A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION AND MOVEMENT/TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH FORECAST CONSENSUS SUPPORTS MODEST
CHANCE POPS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2015

WINDS REMAIN LIGHTER AND MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THAN EARLIER THOUGHT.
STILL THINK SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND BE BREEZY
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MID-HIGH CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED AND WILL
BE PREVALENT THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
IMPACT SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT HAVE ONLY INCLUDED AT KICT AS
CONFIDENCE IT WILL IMPACT OTHER TERMINALS AT THIS TIME IS LOW.

SMOKE FROM EARLIER FIRES OVER THE FLINT HILLS STILL IMPACTS AT
KCNU WITH A CEILING BUT IT IS NOW OVER VFR.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...WILL
ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO PINPOINT TIMING AS THE FORECAST EVOLVES.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCES TONIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. OTHERWISE...INCREASING SOUTH WINDS WILL ELEVATE
THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON IN RAIN-FREE AREAS AS
WELL AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    71  56  77  53 /  20  40  40  60
HUTCHINSON      71  55  78  49 /  20  50  40  40
NEWTON          70  55  76  50 /  20  50  40  50
ELDORADO        71  56  76  53 /  30  50  40  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   71  56  76  55 /  20  30  40  70
RUSSELL         72  55  78  44 /  30  50  20  20
GREAT BEND      70  55  79  46 /  30  50  20  20
SALINA          72  55  78  46 /  20  60  40  30
MCPHERSON       71  55  77  48 /  20  60  40  40
COFFEYVILLE     72  54  77  57 /  30  30  40  70
CHANUTE         71  54  76  54 /  30  50  50  70
IOLA            71  53  75  54 /  20  60  50  70
PARSONS-KPPF    71  54  76  56 /  30  30  40  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

 1243 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2015

JUST PUBLISHED A RATHER "COSMETIC" UPDATE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS (THROUGH 12Z/7AM)...WITH VERY LITTLE NOTICEABLE
CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR THE MOST PART...THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD FEATURE NO WORSE THAN MOSTLY CLEAR-PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES UNDER PRIMARILY PASSING THIN HIGH CLOUDS. BREEZES
WILL AVERAGE 5-10 MPH FROM THE SOUTH...AS OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP NO LOWER THAN THE 39-44 RANGE FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA. REALLY THE ONLY POSSIBLE "CAVEAT" THROUGH SUNRISE
INVOLVES WHETHER OR NOT SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD
POSSIBLY BRUSH INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST EDGES OF THE CWA (NAMELY THE
ROOKS COUNTY KS AREA) SOMETIME AFTER 4 AM OR SO. WHILE THIS IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION...DID NOT FEEL THERE WAS ENOUGH EVIDENCE IN
THE LATEST MODEL DATA (INCLUDING RAP 13/HRRR) TO "RUIN" THE
CURRENTLY-DRY OVERNIGHT FORECAST...AS CERTAINLY THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR SPOTTY RAIN LATE SHOULD FOCUS AT LEAST SLIGHTLY WEST
AND/OR SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA.

MADE NO CHANGES TO THE POST-SUNRISE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT IT
STILL APPEARS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD GET THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS DRY...WITH ANY LIMITED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL PRIMARILY FOCUSED WITHIN SOUTHERN AND/OR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2015

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A FEW CIRRUS IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE SOUTH
DURING THE NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. WITH THE SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE. WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE THERE WILL BE
AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY. MUCAPE INCREASES TO NEARLY 1500 J/KG IN
THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA. HAVE BACKED OFF A LITTLE BRINGING
THE PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. HAVE KEPT A LITTLE IN
THE FAR SOUTH IN THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT THAT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2015

UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NO WIDESPREAD RAINS ON THE HORIZON...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST DUE
TO LOW HUMIDITIES AND STRONG WINDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE...EVEN ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MOST DAYS IN THE PERIOD. THE NORMAL IS 60 TO 65 FOR HIGH TEMPS
AND AROUND FREEZING FOR LOW TEMPS.

PATTERN-WISE...A ZONAL FLOW RETURNS WITH PERIODIC WAVES MOVING
THROUGH. THE NORMAL RESULTING WEATHER WITH THIS TYPE PATTERN IS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER...ALTHOUGH PERIODIC
WAVES BRING FRONTS THROUGH THAT ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUS
A FEW PLACES MAY GET SOME RAIN ON AND OFF.

MODELS...THE EUROPEAN AND GFS ARE IN PHASE THE FIRST FEW DAYS...BUT
AFTER WEDNESDAY THE GFS DEVELOPS SYSTEMS FASTER. PREFER THE TIMING
OF THE SLOWER EUROPEAN BASED ON EXPERIENCE AND PATTERN RECOGNITION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD...BUT EXPECT CLOUD BASES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP
CEILINGS VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE WIND WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...WITH THE FOCUS FOR
WIND SHEAR BEING FURTHER WEST NEAR KEAR. THE AXIS OF STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WEST OF KGRI AND HENCE WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR OUT OF THE KGRI TAF.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...EDDY
AVIATION...WESELY



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

 424 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK. ANOTHER FRONT WILL AFFECT
THE AREA BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM SATURDAY...BAND OF CONVECTION FIRED UP ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN CWA AND IS NOW MOVING INTO THE PAMLICO SOUND AND
OFFSHORE. ONCE THIS ACTIVITY IS OFFSHORE...THE CONVECTIVE THREAT
SHOULD END BUT REGIONAL COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWING ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE W/SW. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER MOST
OF THE CWA THROUGH 12Z...THEN TRANSITIONING TO THE COAST THROUGH
ABOUT 15Z. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OFFSHORE BY
MIDDAY WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR SLOWLY FILTERING INTO THE REGION
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES INLAND AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE NEAR THE COAST
AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL AFTER WARMING A FEW
DEGREES AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM SATURDAY...NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR OVERTAKES THE REGION
TONIGHT AS AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 344 AM SAT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER AREA. SEE SOME
DISCREPANCIES LATER IN THE WEEK AS TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWEST.
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY
MONDAY. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AREA TUESDAY AND WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN POPS AS IT APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES...BUT EXPECT THE FRONT TO PASS OFFSHORE LATE IN THE
DAY...THEN HANG UP ALONG THE COAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WEST OF THE AREA. CURRENT ECMWF SOMEWHAT STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS RUN
AS IT DEEPENS LOW OFF THE COAST MORE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DIFFERENCES CROP
UP IN THE SURFACE FIELDS LATER IN THE WEEK. ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON
STRENGTH OF COASTAL TROUGH/LOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY SO HAVE EASED
OFF A BIT ON POPS IN THAT TIME PERIOD. SYSTEM APPROACHES AREA FRIDAY
WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES INTO THE WEEKEND.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...LOWER
70S BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM SATURDAY...PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN LIMITED THUS
FAR...BUT 3KM HRRR STILL SHOWS RAIN BLOSSOMING...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST TOWARD MORNING. WILL KEEP A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS JUST
AHEAD AND BEHIND FRONT FROM ROUGHLY 09Z TO 14Z THIS MORNING AS THE
COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE SLOWLY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY
MIDDAY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM SAT...VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA TUESDAY WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY
PRECIPITATION. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 425 AM SATURDAY...WHILE WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF OVER THE
SOUNDS AND FAR NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN LEGS...STILL SEEING REPORTS
OF GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20S AT DIAMOND BUOY WITH SEAS AT 7 FEET.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL LEGS
UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING AND MAY BE NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR ROUGH
SEAS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND STRONG COLD FRONT...WINDS
SHOULD SUBSIDE FAIRLY QUICKLY TONIGHT...NORTHEAST AT 15 KNOTS OR
LESS WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FEET CENTRAL WATERS AND 2 TO 3
FEET ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH FLOW BECOMING EASTERLY
THEN SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL WATERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH
CONDITIONS FALLING BELOW SCA CRITERIA. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO
THE NORTH GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH SCA
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ156.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CCG
AVIATION...CCG/CTC
MARINE...CCG/CTC



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

 318 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING ACCOMPANIED
BY A FEW SHOWERS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW AND BUILD INTO THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWING INTO THE MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM FRIDAY...SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AS CONVECTION MOVES INTO A RELATIVELY STABLE AND DRY
ATMOSPHERE. HAVE FURTHER RATCHETED BACK ON TIMING...COVERAGE AND
STRENGTH OF OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH THE ODD THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WE ARE NOW EXPECTING MORE IN THE WAY OF
LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:

BASED ON LATEST TRENDS HAVE FURTHER DELAYED TIMING OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PROGRESSION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED
LIGHT ACTIVITY IS ONLY NOW MAKING ITS WAY INTO OUR FAR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AND DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE ANYTHING MAKE
IT TO THE COAST BEFORE ABOUT MIDNIGHT. DEWPOINTS ARE ON THE LOW
SIDE AND MUCH OF THE CWA IS NOW WITHIN THE MORE STABLE SECTOR OF
THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION SO CONFIDENCE IN THE SEVERE THREAT IS
LOWER THAN EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.LATEST HRRR KEEPS BULK OF
ACTIVITY WELL INLAND. HAVE MADE APPROPRIATE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WITH ALL THIS IN MIND. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

BETWEEN THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF THE SEA BREEZE AN THE SLOWER
THAN EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT FORCED CONVECTION THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS DIMINISHED. SAT IMAGERY SHOWS MINIMAL
DEVELOPMENT IN CU FIELDS DESPITE THE WARM AND HUMID AFTERNOON.
SIMILARLY THE ISOLATED ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST MAY HAVE TROUBLE
SURVIVING INTO OUR REGION DUE TO THE DRYNESS INDICATED IN THE LCL-
LFC LAYER. BUT JUST IN CASE HAVE BEEN CARRYING LOW POPS OVER
WESTERN ZONES BEGINNING AROUND 21Z. THIS IS A BIT QUICKER THAN THE
WRF BUT SLOWER THAN THE NOW OUTLYING GFS. THE MOST UNCERTAINTY HAS
COME THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE HIGH RES MODELS SUCH AS THE RUC AND
THE HRRR. SUCH GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN ANY AND ALL
PREFRONTAL PRECIPITATION DETERIORATE COMPLETE. TAKE THE HRRR FOR
EXAMPLE...NOT A DROP OF RAIN UNTIL SOME FAIRLY BENIGN LOOKING
SHALLOW CONVECTION ENTERS OUR AREA...AT 04Z! CURRENT FORECAST IS
NOT SO BOLDLY DRY BUT JUST RECENTLY NOTICED THAT THE PREFRONTAL
TROUGH DEPICTED ON THE WRF IS MUCH TOO STRONG COMPARED TO REALITY.
SO THE TREND STARTED THIS MORNING OF SLOWING DOWN TIMING MAY VERY
WELL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH JUST A SLOW RAMPING UP OF POPS
FROM NW TO SE...BUT THE BULK OF THE RAIN COMING LATE OVERNIGHT AND
GENERALLY SHALLOW CONVECTION WITH JUST ISOLATED THUNDER. THE
REMAINING SEVERE THREAT IS OVER FAR INLAND ZONES WITH ANY
PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP OR ADVECT IN FROM THE
WEST...REPRESENTING A LOW END DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...A ZONAL MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS A MEANDERING CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGHING MAKE THEIR RESPECTIVE MOVES EAST. MODEST RIDGING
DEVELOPS EARLY MONDAY AHEAD OF THESE SYSTEMS BEFORE A BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL SERVE TO INCREASE PWS FROM A PALTRY 0.15 INCHES TO WELL OVER
AN INCH BY TUESDAY MORNING.

AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED BASICALLY OVERHEAD
SUNDAY THEN MOVE WELL OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN EJECTING VORT...NOT THEM MAIN SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL. WITH THE RIDGE IN
PLACE...MODELS SEEM TO HAVE DELAYED THE MOISTURE SLIGHTLY AND THIS
IS REFLECTED IN THE LATEST FORECAST. THE ONLY CHANGE IN THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS TO RAISE HIGHS FOR MONDAY WITH THE LOWER
POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...A RATHER ACTIVE SCENARIO FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AN ELONGATED AND COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY A WEDGE SCENARIO FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WEAK
RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT. TRENDED POPS DOWN FOR THESE DAYS ALTHOUGH
THEY CANNOT BE REMOVED COMPLETELY AS SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT IS NOTED
IN THE GUIDANCE. POPS TREND BACK UP SLIGHTLY FOR THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH THE APPROACH OF A
DECENT TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURE REGIME LOOKS
VERY STABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...WILL GO WITH MAINLY LIGHT CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH NO MENTION OF THUNDER...THROUGH DAYBREAK
SAT. THE INLAND TERMS WILL SEE THE CFP PRIOR TO SUNRISE...WITH THE
COASTAL TERMS TAKING UP TO 4 TO 6 HRS THERE-AFTER. LOOK FOR
ACTIVE SW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KT...VEER TO THE N AROUND 10 KT AFTER
THE CFP...AND FURTHER VEER TO THE NE AT 10 TO 15 KT BY LATE
MORNING THRU SAT AFTN. COULD SEE A FEW HRS OF LIGHT RAIN OR
SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE CFP...BUT LOOK FOR
QUICKLY IMPROVING CEILINGS BY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR EACH MORNING FROM BR. POSSIBLE
MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING DURING TUE INTO WED DUE TO INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES FROM AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD IN A PRE-FRONTAL
FLOW REGIME. THE APPROACH OF THE BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT WILL
TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT LEADING TO A SMALL INCREASE IN WINDS
AND SEAS. WHILE THIS MAY INTRODUCE 5 FT SEAS ALONG THE OUTER
PORTIONS OF SOME OF THE FORECAST ZONES THE LARGE COAST- PARALLEL
COMPONENT SHOULD SPONSOR ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT IN NEARSHORE VS
OFFSHORE WAVES TO PRECLUDE A SCEC.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR SOME TIME
SUNDAY WITH SPEEDS OF 15-20 KNOTS. BY SUNDAY EVENING THE FLOW WILL
DIMINISH AND VEER TO THE EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. BY
LATE MONDAY MORNING A SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE.
SPEEDS AT THIS TIME WILL BE 10-15 KNOTS. THE FLOW WILL VEER FURTHER
BY TUESDAY MORNING TO SOUTHERLY. SEAS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE 2-4
FEET WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OCCURRING SUNDAY AND LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW EARLY WILL SWITCH TO THE
NORTH...NORTHEAST BY DAYS END TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA AND OFFSHORE. THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
WEDNESDAY AS A WEDGE SCENARIO STRENGTHENS. OVERALL WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE 10-15 KNOTS...LOWER TUESDAY AND HIGHER WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...REK/MBB
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

 215 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS LINGERING INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW AND BUILD INTO THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWING INTO THE MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM FRIDAY...SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AS CONVECTION MOVES INTO A RELATIVELY STABLE AND DRY
ATMOSPHERE. HAVE FURTHER RATCHETED BACK ON TIMING...COVERAGE AND
STRENGTH OF OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH THE ODD THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WE ARE NOW EXPECTING MORE IN THE WAY OF
LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:

BASED ON LATEST TRENDS HAVE FURTHER DELAYED TIMING OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PROGRESSION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED
LIGHT ACTIVITY IS ONLY NOW MAKING ITS WAY INTO OUR FAR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AND DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE ANYTHING MAKE
IT TO THE COAST BEFORE ABOUT MIDNIGHT. DEWPOINTS ARE ON THE LOW
SIDE AND MUCH OF THE CWA IS NOW WITHIN THE MORE STABLE SECTOR OF
THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION SO CONFIDENCE IN THE SEVERE THREAT IS
LOWER THAN EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.LATEST HRRR KEEPS BULK OF
ACTIVITY WELL INLAND. HAVE MADE APPROPRIATE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WITH ALL THIS IN MIND. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

BETWEEN THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF THE SEA BREEZE AN THE SLOWER
THAN EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT FORCED CONVECTION THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS DIMINISHED. SAT IMAGERY SHOWS MINIMAL
DEVELOPMENT IN CU FIELDS DESPITE THE WARM AND HUMID AFTERNOON.
SIMILARLY THE ISOLATED ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST MAY HAVE TROUBLE
SURVIVING INTO OUR REGION DUE TO THE DRYNESS INDICATED IN THE LCL-
LFC LAYER. BUT JUST IN CASE HAVE BEEN CARRYING LOW POPS OVER
WESTERN ZONES BEGINNING AROUND 21Z. THIS IS A BIT QUICKER THAN THE
WRF BUT SLOWER THAN THE NOW OUTLYING GFS. THE MOST UNCERTAINTY HAS
COME THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE HIGH RES MODELS SUCH AS THE RUC AND
THE HRRR. SUCH GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN ANY AND ALL
PREFRONTAL PRECIPITATION DETERIORATE COMPLETE. TAKE THE HRRR FOR
EXAMPLE...NOT A DROP OF RAIN UNTIL SOME FAIRLY BENIGN LOOKING
SHALLOW CONVECTION ENTERS OUR AREA...AT 04Z! CURRENT FORECAST IS
NOT SO BOLDLY DRY BUT JUST RECENTLY NOTICED THAT THE PREFRONTAL
TROUGH DEPICTED ON THE WRF IS MUCH TOO STRONG COMPARED TO REALITY.
SO THE TREND STARTED THIS MORNING OF SLOWING DOWN TIMING MAY VERY
WELL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH JUST A SLOW RAMPING UP OF POPS
FROM NW TO SE...BUT THE BULK OF THE RAIN COMING LATE OVERNIGHT AND
GENERALLY SHALLOW CONVECTION WITH JUST ISOLATED THUNDER. THE
REMAINING SEVERE THREAT IS OVER FAR INLAND ZONES WITH ANY
PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP OR ADVECT IN FROM THE
WEST...REPRESENTING A LOW END DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST OFF
THE COAST BY 12 UTC WITH LINGERING EARLY MORNING SHOWERS.
AFTER THE PRECIPITATION CLEARS SATURDAY MORNING...DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN THE 74 TO
78 DEGREE RANGE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30% RANGE LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...WETTISH EXTENDED PERIOD AS UPSTREAM UPPER
TROUGHING ALLOWS GULF MOISTURE TAPS TO EJECT NE INTO THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FIRST IMPULSE GUIDED FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA STREAMS NE IN AN ELEVATED PRECIPITABLE WATER
PLUME AS HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS FROM THE NORTH TO INSTIGATE AN
EARLY SPRING OVER-RUNNING WEDGE PATTERN INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH EDGES EAST OVER THE  VALLEY
OVERSPREADING GULF VAPOR CONTENT THURSDAY AS THE WEDGE ERODES IN
WET  AND ISENTROPIC OMEGA. EXTENDED PERIOD CULMINATES INTO
A RAINY FRIDAY AS THE AMPED UPPER TROUGH FORCES A COLD FRONT
ACROSS FORECAST AREA DAY 7. WPC QPF DEPICTIONS FOR DAYS 4-5 AND
6-7 YIELD BASIN AVERAGE COLLECTIVE RAIN TOTALS OF 1-2.5 INCHES.
PLENTIFUL CLOUDS IN BALMY SW FLOW ALOFT AND WEDGE PATTERN THIS
PERIOD RESULTS IN MAXIMUMS PRIMARILY 70S...MINIMUMS UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...WILL GO WITH MAINLY LIGHT CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH NO MENTION OF THUNDER...THROUGH DAYBREAK
SAT. THE INLAND TERMS WILL SEE THE CFP PRIOR TO SUNRISE...WITH THE
COASTAL TERMS TAKING UP TO 4 TO 6 HRS THERE-AFTER. LOOK FOR
ACTIVE SW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KT...VEER TO THE N AROUND 10 KT AFTER
THE CFP...AND FURTHER VEER TO THE NE AT 10 TO 15 KT BY LATE
MORNING THRU SAT AFTN. COULD SEE A FEW HRS OF LIGHT RAIN OR
SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE CFP...BUT LOOK FOR
QUICKLY IMPROVING CEILINGS BY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR EACH MORNING FROM BR. POSSIBLE
MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING DURING TUE INTO WED DUE TO INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES FROM AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD IN A PRE-FRONTAL
FLOW REGIME. THE APPROACH OF THE BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT WILL
TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT LEADING TO A SMALL INCREASE IN WINDS
AND SEAS. WHILE THIS MAY INTRODUCE 5 FT SEAS ALONG THE OUTER
PORTIONS OF SOME OF THE FORECAST ZONES THE LARGE COAST- PARALLEL
COMPONENT SHOULD SPONSOR ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT IN NEARSHORE VS
OFFSHORE WAVES TO PRECLUDE A SCEC.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BE SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THEN NORTHEAST TO EAST
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS
EARLY IN THE MORNING BEFORE DROPPING DOWN TO 15 KNOTS BY THE
EVENING. ON SUNDAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND WINDS ARE
EXPECT TO PEAK AGAIN AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
DROPPING BACK TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE
RUNNING AROUND 3 TO 5 FEET SATURDAY MORNING WITH A FALL TO 2 TO 4
FEET SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW. WITH THE NORTHEAST
FLOW INCREASING THE SEAS WILL INCREASE BACK TO 3 TO 4 FEET ON
SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...A BUMPY MARINE ENVIRONMENT MON-WED AS A
MODERATE ONSHORE WIND FLOW KEEPS SEAS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...AND
OVERALL 3-5 FEET. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY PLAGUE THE WATERS
WITH RAIN AND OCCASIONAL REDUCED VISIBILITY AND ISOLATED TSTMS
AS GULF MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES SPREAD NE OVER THE 0-20 NM
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
FOR 6 FOOT SEAS OFFSHORE...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND
INTERACTS WITH AN OFFSHORE COASTAL TROUGH.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRH
NEAR TERM...REK/MBB
SHORT TERM...DRH
LONG TERM...MJC
AVIATION...DCH




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

 1256 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND SWEEP ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER MONDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1235 AM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT MAKING VERY SLOW PROGRESS
ACROSS THE STATE...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE TRIAD REGION.
CONVECTION HAD A HARD TIME GETTING ITS ACT TOGETHER THIS EVENING
AND HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. RADAR DOES INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS STARTING TO DEVELOP WEST
OF GOLDSBORO. LATEST RUN OF THE 3KM HRRR STILL SHOWS PRECIPITATION
BLOSSOMING AROUND 08Z OR 09Z...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND
CONTINUING INTO MID-MORNING...HAVE RAMP POPS BACK UP TO LIKELY
NEAR THE COAST AFTER 09Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRIDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY COAST IN WAKE OF
FRONT THEN CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST LATER IN MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF REGION. CAA NOT OVERLY
STRONG BEHIND FRONT AND WITH SOME SUN SHOULD SEE NEAR NORMAL HIGHS
IN LOW TO MID 70S SW TO MID 60S NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT AFTER THAT THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. WPC
SURFACE GRAPHICS MATCH UP BETTER WITH ECMWF SO WILL USE IT FOR THE
LONG TERM FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THIS
WEEKEND WILL SHIFT EAST MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WINDS
BECOME SOUTHEAST MONDAY THEN SOUTHWEST TUESDAY. COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST IN THE EVENING
AND BECOME STATIONARY TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. CHANCE POPS RETURN FRIDAY AS THE FRONT
TO THE SOUTH MOVES BACK NORTH ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING SHARP
UPPER TROF.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM SATURDAY...PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN LIMITED THUS
FAR...BUT 3KM HRRR STILL SHOWS RAIN BLOSSOMING...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST TOWARD MORNING. WILL KEEP A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS JUST
AHEAD AND BEHIND FRONT FROM ROUGHLY 09Z TO 14Z THIS MORNING AS THE
COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE SLOWLY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY
MIDDAY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...VFR/DRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS TUESDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST TUESDAY EVENING.
VFR/DRY CONDITIONS RETURN WED. LIGHT EAST WINDS SUNDAY BECOME
SOUTHEAST MONDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN
NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM SATURDAY...HAVE DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
OVER THE PAMLICO SOUND AND FAR SOUTHERN WATERS BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL WATERS
NORTH OF OCRACOKE...ESPECIALLY NEAR DIAMOND BUOY AND DUCK WITH
GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FEET BUT
WITH SOME 6 FT SEAS FOR THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW TO N TOWARD DAYBREAK. COULD BE A
PERIOD OF 15-20 KT N/NE WINDS IN WAKE OF FRONT SAT MORNING THEN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH INTO THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED SCA SAT MORNING CENTRAL WATERS FOR POSSIBLY SOME
LINGERING 6 FT SEAS THEN SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FEET LATE
SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST MONDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL VEER FURTHER TO SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST AND CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY. WIND SPEEDS FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS. HOWEVER
WINDS FORECAST TO BUILD TO 4-6 FEET TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY IN THE
WATERS FROM OREGON INLET TO CAPE LOOKOUT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ150.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...CTC/HSA
MARINE...CTC/DAG/HSA



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TULSA OK

 420 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE OVER THE NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE TRYING TO MOVE INTO PARTS OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING BUT ARE HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY OVERCOMING
THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE. OVERALL PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER LOW IN OUR AREA TODAY
ALTHOUGH THE HRRR DOES INDICATE AT LEAST ISOLATED ACTIVITY
CONTINUING MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT TO SEE ENOUGH SUN THROUGH THE
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO
THE 70S.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER TONIGHT AND WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY.
THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
LAG BACK OVER THE AREA.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY WITH
MOST MODELS DEVELOPING A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN TEH VICINITY BY LATE
WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES GOING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  57  79  61 /  20  20  30  70
FSM   75  54  80  63 /  10  10  40  60
MLC   75  58  77  61 /  20  10  40  70
BVO   73  54  80  58 /  20  20  30  70
FYV   72  53  77  59 /  10  10  30  60
BYV   73  52  76  59 /  10  10  20  60
MKO   74  55  78  61 /  20  10  30  60
MIO   73  52  78  58 /  20  20  30  70
F10   74  58  77  61 /  20  10  30  60
HHW   74  57  76  63 /  10  10  50  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....05

PLATE





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

 341 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...GOOD CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL THE NEXT 48 HOURS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. A MOIST MID
AND UPPER LEVEL TAP FROM THE PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE OVERHEAD. THE
LOWEST LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY RELATIVELY DRY BEHIND YESTERDAYS COLD
FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WHERE DEW POINTS ARE IN
THE LOW 50S. THIS WILL MODIFY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MORNING...AND LOW LEVEL H85 THETA-E
ADVECTION SETS UP OVER THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW. PWAT VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5-1.7 INCHES BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CLOSER TO 1.8-1.9 INCHES EAST OF I-35 SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...WELL ABOVE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF THE MEAN FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WARM FRONT LIFTING BACK THROUGH THE AREA
WILL SERVE AS FOCUS FOR FORCING TODAY. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO
THE HRRR AND SREF THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS...WHICH SEEM TO BE
RELATIVELY BETTER WITH ONGOING CONVECTION SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
CWA. WITH NO CAP IN PLACE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MID MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN CWA AND EXPANDING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT...AND THROUGH NORTHERN
MEXICO AND INTO FAR WEST TEXAS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. TIMING OF
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS DIFFICULT.
GENERALLY ECMWF AND GFS ARE SHOWING TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FORCING INCREASING OUT OF SOUTH AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE EWX CWA...AND THEN A SECOND DISTURBANCE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING COMING OUT OF MEXICO WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE EWX CWA. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES BROADLY
DIFFLUENT OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT BETWEEN
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND SOUTHERN
STREAM SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND MEXICO.
THIS ALL INDICATES HIGH CHANCES FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIP
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS BETTER...BUT OVERALL THE
MOIST NATURE OF THE COLUMN LOOKS MORE OF INDICATIVE OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING LOOK
TO AVERAGE AROUND 1/2 TO 1 INCH ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...1 TO 2
INCHES ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR...AND 2 TO 3
INCHES EAST OF I-35. A FEW POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...DRIER AIR DOES WORK INTO THE
RIO GRANDE AND HILL COUNTRY ON MONDAY WITH DECREASING POPS WEST TO
EAST. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EVENTUALLY OPENS AND SHEARS NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS SOUTH-
CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY. SHOULD SEE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY WITH DEEP MOISTURE STILL POOLED ALONG AND
EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. EVENTUALLY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEEPENS THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...SENDING A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL TAP FROM
THE PACIFIC CONTINUING IT APPEARS ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIP
WILL OCCUR DURING THIS TIME. DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  66  78  65  82 /  60  70  70  90  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  66  77  65  81 /  60  70  70  90  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     76  66  78  64  84 /  60  70  70  90  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  64  77  63  81 /  60  60  60  80  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77  66  80  63  85 /  60  40  50  70  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        73  65  76  65  81 /  50  70  70  80  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  66  79  64  84 /  60  60  60  90  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        75  66  77  65  82 /  60  70  70  90  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  68  77  68  81 /  60  60  70  80  50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  67  79  66  83 /  60  70  60  90  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  68  79  66  84 /  60  70  60  90  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX

 1231 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Some showers possible later tonight into Saturday morning though
lightning will be isolated. Some MVFR CIGs are possible near
sunrise with MAF the most likely TAF site to be affected. The last
half of the TAF period appears very favorable for aviation
interests.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 150 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SE-E surface winds have increased across the Trans Pecos/PB this PM
as surface high moves e and surface pressure falls. Upslope flow per
mesoscale models (TTU WRF, NAM12, HRRR) looks well organized, enuf
so that dwpnts will increase to near 50 on on east slopes of Davis
Mtns and M50s thru Glass Mtns. Instability looks to be modulated by
mid level LRs of 7.5 C/KM and 0-1km CAPES increase by 00Z to near
1500 J/KG in said area. Looks to be a good set-up for tstms to
initiate in the mtns where SB CINH not much of an issue and then
move e-ne. Kinematics are also favorable for severe wx (large hail)
with 0-6 km bulk shear 40-50kts. In this set-up, the surface thermal
ridge and axis of highest dwpnts are near co-located. HRRR develops
QPF at 22Z NW of FST and depicts what may well be a right-moving
supercell across Pecos Co later this PM. Overnight there is an
indication that the arrival energy assocd shrtwv trof in the sw flow
aloft and 40kt LLJ may renew the development of convection,
especially s of I-20. Convective potential will wane Sat, but still
exists. Isold-Sct tstms INVOF Davis/Glass Mtns and across the ern PB,
respectively. Sunday more robust PoPs are warranted with backed mid
level flow ahead of an upper low sw of El Paso City, helping to hold
low level mstr in place. 5h jet of 50-60kts will help provide lift.
0-6km bulk shear increases late, but LR/s are not very good, so for
now severe potential looks to be minimized. There`s enuf of a backed
flow/mstr/potential for rain cooled air to keeps temps INVOF of
normal ranges thru Sunday. Said low will lift newd to w-nw of MAF
and this will increase the PoPs Monday n of the area, moreso in the
LBB area. However cool mid levels near the center of low will be
enough to keep sct PoPs, especially along n of I-20. An assocd cold
front will pass thru the area either Mon PM or Mon night, so cooler
and drier Tue. Another front will be possible Wed night/Thursday
morning, so cool/dry for Thur PM. We`ll watch for the potential for
low level mstr return Friday which will augment PoPs.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

 946 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015

.DISCUSSION...
...A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

LTST SOUNDING FROM XMR SHOWS A FAVORABLE SETUP IN PLACE FOR EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. PWAT HAS INCREASED
TO ~1.6 INCHES ALONG WITH SW FLOW AT STEERING LEVEL NR 10 TO 15 KTS.
PRESENCE OF AN APPROACHING GULF WAVE ALONG WITH A DRY LAYER FROM H7
TO H5 WL ADD POTENTIAL FOR HAIL DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH STRONG
DOWNBURST WINDS NEAR ANY STRONGER STORMS WHICH DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HEAT. RECENT 2KM HRRR SOLN INDICATES INITIAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG A SLOW INLAND MOVING ECSB AROUND MID DAY WITH A
LATE COLLISION OF COASTAL BREEZES OVER ECFL NR 5 TO 6 PM LIKELY
BRINGING THE GREATEST HAZARD FOR DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG WIND GUSTS
...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HAIL. ACTIVITY RESULTING FROM THE LARGE
BOUNDARY COLLISION IS SHOWN MOVING BACK TOWARD THE EAST COAST
THROUGH DUSK...ESP N OF SEBASTIAN INLET.

PERSONS PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED TO MOVE INDOORS BEFORE STORMS APPROACH
YOUR LOCATION.

THE HAZARDOUS OUTLOOK AND FORECAST WL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.


&&

.AVIATION...TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS EXPECTED WITH SCT-NMRS SHRA WITH
SOME EMBEDDED TS ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES THIS AFT AND INTO THE
EVE. SFC WND G NR 40KT AND CIGS AOB FL 030 PSBL MNLY INLAND 11/19Z-
12/01Z.

&&

.MARINE...SW WIND FORECAST ACROSS THE WATERS WITH A E/SE COMPONENT
NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE FORMS THIS AFTN. WINDS
THEN BECOME MORE ONSHORE INTO TONIGHT AS FRONT WEAKENS AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT AROUND 5-10 KTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WITH ANY STORMS THAT EITHER FORM NEAR THE COAST
WITH INITIALLY SEA BREEZE FORMATION OR FROM BOUNDARY COLLISIONS
LATER IN THE DAY THAT PUSH OFFSHORE...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...ESP N
OF SEBASTIAN INLET.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

JP/FJ/WU



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WICHITA KS

 633 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND A WEAK TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE ALOFT
HAS OVERCOME SEEMINGLY MODEST MOISTURE AND RESULTED IN SCATTERED
ELEVATED SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS FROM NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LATEST RUC HAS
THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS ACTIVITY WHICH LINGERS IT INTO THE 12Z-
15Z TIME FRAME ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. STRONGER ELEVATED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ALOFT MIGRATES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS WILL ALLOW DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS LATER
TODAY TO DEVELOP/MOVE EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...BEFORE RENEWED SURFACE BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. WHILE INTENSITY SHOULD
DECREASE BY SUNDAY EVENING...COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE ALONG
THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS. COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS STILL ON TAP FOR MONDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK TO INCREASE BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
WITH THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER TROF MOVING FROM
THE ROCKIES AND BECOMING A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION AND MOVEMENT/TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH FORECAST CONSENSUS SUPPORTS MODEST
CHANCE POPS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING HAVE ALLOWED SMOKE FROM THE
FLINT HILLS TO DRIFT INTO THE WICHITA AREA AND REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR. THIS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS SPEEDS
INCREASE AND VEER TO THE SOUTH CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE TO
VFR. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE BETTER CHANCES SHOULD ARRIVE TONIGHT. SOME
TRANSIENT MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIKELY UNDER THE
HEAVIEST ACTIVITY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCES TONIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. OTHERWISE...INCREASING SOUTH WINDS WILL ELEVATE
THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON IN RAIN-FREE AREAS AS
WELL AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    71  56  77  53 /  30  40  40  60
HUTCHINSON      71  55  78  49 /  20  50  40  40
NEWTON          70  55  76  50 /  30  50  40  50
ELDORADO        71  56  76  53 /  50  50  40  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   71  56  76  55 /  30  30  40  70
RUSSELL         72  55  78  44 /  30  50  20  20
GREAT BEND      70  55  79  46 /  30  50  20  20
SALINA          72  55  78  46 /  20  60  40  30
MCPHERSON       71  55  77  48 /  20  60  40  40
COFFEYVILLE     72  54  77  57 /  40  30  40  70
CHANUTE         71  54  76  54 /  40  50  50  70
IOLA            71  53  75  54 /  30  60  50  70
PARSONS-KPPF    71  54  76  56 /  40  30  40  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

 1130 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND BRING FAIR WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MIDDAY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY AND MILD WEATHER FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY
AND BRING FAIR WX WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. FAIR WX WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE RIDGE STILL IN CONTROL OF
THE WX PATTERN.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
GIVEN LACK OF SFC OR ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND WEAK LIFT WITH THIS
FRONT. FAIR WX WILL RETURN BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015

FOR THE MOST PART THE FIRST FEW DAYS (TUE/WED) WILL BE QUIET WITH A
FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND PLEASANT MID SPRING TEMPERATURES. LATER
IN THE WEEK... A SERIES OF PACIFIC SYSTEMS WILL TRY TO DIG SOME SORT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL PROGRESS WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CONUS.
HOW THIS PLAYS OUT IS ANYONE`S GUESS. THE ISSUE IS PHASING OF THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM. FOR NOW IT SORT OF LOOKS LIKE MOST OF
THE SIGNIFICANT RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF MICHIGAN
INTO FRIDAY (NO PHASING). WE WOULD GET SOME SHOWERS THURSDAY /
FRIDAY AS ONE OF THESE UNPHASED WAVES PASS THROUGH THE AREA.

ONE THING TO WATCH IS WHAT HAPPENS TO THE  SOUTHERN STREAM JET. IT
IS CURRENTLY WELL SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC....NEAR
20N. IT SEEMS TO WANT TO STAY THERE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TO
GET STRONG SYSTEM INTO MICHIGAN WE WOULD NEED A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
TO DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO TAP THAT ENERGY. CURRENTLY THAT IS DOES
NOT SEEM TO WANT TO HAPPEN. SO FOR NOW I WILL FEATURE MOSTLY LOW
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW LATER
MODEL RUNS PLAY THIS OUT.  IF NOTHING ELSE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 712 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015

ONCE THE SUN HAS A CHANCE TO HEAT THE AIR ENOUGH TO START MIXING
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER... THE PATCHY FOG AT OUR EASTERN TAF SITES
WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT (BY 14Z). MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME CU
AROUND 4000 FT AGL TODAY BUT THE OUTGOING LONG WAVE RADIATION LOOP
FROM THE 07Z HRRR DOES NOT SHOW ANY CU OVER OUR CWA TODAY EVEN SO.
NO MATTER WHAT SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
FROM THE SOUTH.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1128 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015

WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY MAJOR
IMPACT TO MARINERS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP ON SUNDAY
AND BOATING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 534 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015

RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN ARE RISING
AFTER THE 2 TO 3.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL EXPERIENCED OVER THE PAST 3
DAYS. THE WHITE RIVER AT WHITEHALL IS IN FLOOD WHILE THE ROGUE RIVER
AT ROCKFORD AND THE MUSKEGON RIVER AT CROTON ARE EXPECTED TO SOON
REACH FLOOD STAGE. THESE SITES SHOULD BE IN A MINOR FLOOD STATE FOR
A DAY OR TWO. MANY OTHER SITES WILL PEAK A LITTLE BELOW FLOOD LEVEL.
SITES ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN RECEIVED ONLY AN INCH TO AN
INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN... AND ARE NOT EXPERIENCING HIGH RIVER
LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...MJS






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

 713 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND BRING FAIR WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MIDDAY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY AND MILD WEATHER FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY
AND BRING FAIR WX WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. FAIR WX WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE RIDGE STILL IN CONTROL OF
THE WX PATTERN.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
GIVEN LACK OF SFC OR ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND WEAK LIFT WITH THIS
FRONT. FAIR WX WILL RETURN BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015

FOR THE MOST PART THE FIRST FEW DAYS (TUE/WED) WILL BE QUIET WITH A
FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND PLEASANT MID SPRING TEMPERATURES. LATER
IN THE WEEK... A SERIES OF PACIFIC SYSTEMS WILL TRY TO DIG SOME SORT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL PROGRESS WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CONUS.
HOW THIS PLAYS OUT IS ANYONE`S GUESS. THE ISSUE IS PHASING OF THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM. FOR NOW IT SORT OF LOOKS LIKE MOST OF
THE SIGNIFICANT RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF MICHIGAN
INTO FRIDAY (NO PHASING). WE WOULD GET SOME SHOWERS THURSDAY /
FRIDAY AS ONE OF THESE UNPHASED WAVES PASS THROUGH THE AREA.

ONE THING TO WATCH IS WHAT HAPPENS TO THE  SOUTHERN STREAM JET. IT
IS CURRENTLY WELL SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC....NEAR
20N. IT SEEMS TO WANT TO STAY THERE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TO
GET STRONG SYSTEM INTO MICHIGAN WE WOULD NEED A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
TO DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO TAP THAT ENERGY. CURRENTLY THAT IS DOES
NOT SEEM TO WANT TO HAPPEN. SO FOR NOW I WILL FEATURE MOSTLY LOW
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW LATER
MODEL RUNS PLAY THIS OUT.  IF NOTHING ELSE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 712 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015

ONCE THE SUN HAS A CHANCE TO HEAT THE AIR ENOUGH TO START MIXING
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER... THE PATCHY FOG AT OUR EASTERN TAF SITES
WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT (BY 14Z). MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME CU
AROUND 4000 FT AGL TODAY BUT THE OUTGOING LONG WAVE RADIATION LOOP
FROM THE 07Z HRRR DOES NOT SHOW ANY CU OVER OUR CWA TODAY EVEN SO.
NO MATTER WHAT SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
FROM THE SOUTH.



&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015

MINIMAL WIND AND WAVE ACTION IS ANTICIPATED TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER
SOUTH WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 534 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015

RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN ARE RISING
AFTER THE 2 TO 3.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL EXPERIENCED OVER THE PAST 3
DAYS. THE WHITE RIVER AT WHITEHALL IS IN FLOOD WHILE THE ROGUE RIVER
AT ROCKFORD AND THE MUSKEGON RIVER AT CROTON ARE EXPECTED TO SOON
REACH FLOOD STAGE. THESE SITES SHOULD BE IN A MINOR FLOOD STATE FOR
A DAY OR TWO. MANY OTHER SITES WILL PEAK A LITTLE BELOW FLOOD LEVEL.
SITES ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN RECEIVED ONLY AN INCH TO AN
INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN... AND ARE NOT EXPERIENCING HIGH RIVER
LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...LAURENS






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

 1052 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS VA AND NC
THROUGH THIS EVENING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW AND BUILD
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH SUN..BEFORE DRIFTING
OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1050 AM SATURDAY...

A LEAD COLD FRONT HAD CLEARED ALL BUT BRUNSWICK COUNTY IN NC...WITH
A TRAILING 1019 MB SFC RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE NW NC PIEDMONT.
MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY FRONT WAS ANALYZED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
VA...AND THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND ACROSS CENTRAL
NC WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IT WILL INSTEAD SIMPLY MARK THE LEADING EDGE OF A PARENT...
1027 MB CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE IL/IN BORDER THAT
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH EARLY SUN. THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST REPRESENTED THE CLEARING WELL PER RECENT SATELLITE
TRENDS AND NEAR TERM MOISTURE PROGS...WHICH SUGGESTS THE BACK EDGE
OF THE MAINLY MID-HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL CLEAR THE TRIANGLE BETWEEN
NOON AND 1 PM...AND THE COASTAL PLAIN 2-3 HOURS LATER. SOME
ADDITIONAL BUT THIN CIRRUS WILL STREAM EAST IN WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...FROM THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
RECENT HRRR AND RAP FORECASTS SUPPORT PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED HIGHS IN
THE 70S. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 30S COURTESY OF
GENERALLY NORTH TO NNW FLOW AROUND THE LEAD RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
PIEDMONT...AND EVEN SOME 20S PROBABLE OVER THE NW PIEDMONT...THE AIR
WILL FEEL MUCH LESS HUMID THAN RECENT DAYS

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND...WHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
GRADUALLY MOVES EAST...AT LEAST THE WESTERN END OF HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. PLAN
VIEW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS AND BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED
MOISTURE IN OVERALL SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF
SUNDAY...WITH K INDICES NEAR ZERO OR BELOW. OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...THE
NAM PROVIDES FOR MORE OF A RETURN FLOW WITH FASTER EASTWARD PROGRESS
OF LOW PRESSURE OUT OF THE SOUTH PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...RESULTING IN JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUDS TOWARD THE IMMEDIATE TRIAD AND EVEN VERY
MINOR QPF. THE GFS...ON THE OTHER HAND...IN MUCH SLOWER IN THE
EASTWARD PROGRESS OF LOW PRESSURE...AND DRIER IN THE LOW LEVELS AT
LEAST THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SOME SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH REGARD TO THE MOISTURE RETURN AND ITS INFLUENCE ON LOW
TEMPERATURES THEN...AND FOR THIS FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
SLOWER SOLUTION DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND THE
SHARPENING RIDGE AXIS THAT EVEN THE NAM FORECASTS OVER THE CAROLINAS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S...LIKELY AROUND 40 KTDF TO KLHZ NORTH...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S...A LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY OVERALL WITH 1000-
850MB THICKNESSES A FEW METERS LOWER. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL LIKELY BE QUITE VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE 40S. -DJF

MONDAY...A WEAK RIDGE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. THE RAIN SHOULD STAY LARGELY TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST THROUGH THE DAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES...ALTHOUGH
SOME RAIN MAY MOVE INTO THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. -RAH

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM SATURDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN
OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM SHORE. A COLD FRONT
WILL EXTEND SSW THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID WEST FROM THE
PARENT LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL CANADA AT 00Z TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL
BECOME MORE WEST-EAST ORIENTED OVERNIGHT AS IT DISCONNECTS SOMEWHAT
FROM THE PARENT LOW. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD...ADVECTING WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION. AS FAR AS RAIN CHANCES GO...THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE
WETTER THAN THE 00Z GFS SOLUTION OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER BEST CHANCES
EARLY ON WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS THE WEST. EXPECT THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NC TO BE TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FROPA. A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD PUSH SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL NC TUESDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN BEHIND IT. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...AND
GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE
AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTED IN BEHIND AND TIMING/PROGRESSION OF THE
WARM FRONT. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND ON THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD...AND
CONTINUE RIDGING INTO THE AREA AFTER IT MOVES OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY.
THE MODELS REALLY START TO DISAGREE WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP DURING
THIS TIME...WITH THE ECMWF WETTER THAN THE GFS...THUS CONFIDENCE IS
NOT ALL THAT HIGH. FOR NOW...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO REMAIN DRY WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING RAINFALL CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...
AND BEYOND AT LEAST INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TOWARD KFAY AND KCTZ EARLY THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...BEHIND A COLD FRONT BASICALLY THROUGH CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA AS OF THIS WRITING...SURFACE WINDS TURN NORTHERLY AND
SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FEW NORTHERLY GUSTS
IN THE TEENS KNOTS WITH MIXING TODAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
RETREAT TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.

THE NAM MODEL...WITH A FASTER MOIST RETURN FLOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...
SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE TRIAD BY 12Z MONDAY.
THE GFS IS VERY DRY STILL IN THE LOW LEVELS AT THAT TIME...SO FOR
THIS WRITING CONSIDER A LOW PROBABILITY OF LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE TRIAD
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND
PRECIPITATION OCCURS OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BASED ON THE
LATEST GFS MODEL...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...DJF/RAH
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...DJF




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 938 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

SOUTHERLY 925 MB LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 35 KTS FROM RUC MODEL OVER
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SHOWERS EXITING
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME. THE WIND SPEEDS AT 925
SUGGEST SURFACE WINDS WINDS WILL PICK UP SOON AS WELL. HOWEVER
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS LOW LEVEL WIND MAX WILL MOVE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON SO DO NOT EXPECT TO REALIZE THESE STRONG WINDS THERE.
THERE WILL BE A RELATIVE WIND MAX THERE OF 20 TO 30 MPH. CURRENT
STATUS OF RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS THE SAME AND LOOKS OK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. A WEAK WAVE MOVING ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA
BORDER IS PRODUCING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM BISMARCK TO
JAMESTOWN AND SOUTH INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. A SPRINKLE OR TWO MAY BE
REACHING THE GROUND BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AN
HAVE REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THAT WAS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH 7 AM. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST...OR
CURRENT FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL KEEP A
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH H850 IN
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND UP THROUGH H700 IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS WILL ALLOW MIXING OF LOW LEVELS TO A DRY LAYER ALOFT.
INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. THE JAMES VALLEY MAY SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AS THE POCKET OF DRY/WINDY AIR
ALOFT SHIFTS TO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY. SEE THE
FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS. LOOKING AT A WARM DAY TODAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

MEANWHILE AT UPPER LEVELS...A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
ROCKIES TODAY EXPANDS INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS TONIGHT...AND MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

TONIGHT A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES IN BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH
DECENT COLD ADVECTION. LOOK FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE STATE AND BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED
WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH AT TIMES. A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY. COOLER
WITH HIGHS 50 TO 60. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY
IMPULSES WILL CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON
SUNDAY.

CONTINUED WINDY ON MONDAY. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHOULD
BE EAST OF THE STATE. THE COMBINATION OF THE VIGOROUS DEPARTING LOW
TO OUR EAST/NORTHEAST AND STRONG WARM AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST WILL PROVIDE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE.
YET ANOTHER DAY OF POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. A BIT WARMER
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

A PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. ON TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES AND MOVING INTO THE MONDAK REGION BY 00 UTC WEDNESDAY.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL BRING BREEZY
CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
INTO THE 70S...AND SOME 80 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTH. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AS
THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MEAN ANOTHER DAY WITH LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST. STILL SOME
CONCERNS AS TO WHETHER STRONGER WINDS WILL MATCH UP WITH THE LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES.

THE SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE SPLITTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEDNESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT. RAIN SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH MOST AREAS
SEEING THE POSSIBILITY OF UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH...AND POSSIBLY
LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO A QUARTER INCH.

COULD SEE A LINGERING SHOWER EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING IN THE FAR
EASTERN FORECAST AREA...BUT THEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDS
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
GFS BRINGS ANOTHER QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND
STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
ON SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THE ECMWF ARE NOT THAT MUCH
MORE IMPRESSIVE.

EXCEPT FOR THE VERY MILD DAY ON TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHWEST
WINDS BECOMING GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO 22-25 KNOTS AT
TIMES. A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT ENTERS NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFT 00Z AND MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE STATE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

RED FLAG WARNING TODAY.

EXPECT THAT RECENT RAIN/SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT IN THE
SOUTHWEST HAS MELTED/EVAPORATED OR FILTERED INTO THE TOPSOIL...AT
LEAST KNOWING THAT PARTS OF THOSE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES DID NOT HAVE
ANY SNOW COVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. NO REPORTS OF GRASSLANDS
BEGINNING TO GREEN UP.

RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND ALL OF
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20
TO 25 MPH BY AROUND NOON...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S...AND
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY. THIS INCLUDES WILLISTON AND BOWMAN...GARRISON TO
JAMESTOWN AND SOUTH.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE SUNDAY. CONFIDENT ON NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS IS FROM A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE 50S. THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
DRYING AT LOWER LEVELS FOR MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF
AROUND 20 PERCENT SOUTH AND 25 TO 30 PERCENT NORTH.
HOWEVER...EXPECTING SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS. MAY NEED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH/RED FLAG WARNING -
ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF/TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE.

CONTINUED WINDY MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S...AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ009-010-017>021-025-031>037-
040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...JV
FIRE WEATHER...JV






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TULSA OK

 948 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURRING WELL ABOVE THE SURFACE ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT WHICH PASSED THRU A COUPLE DAYS AGO IS
PRODUCING HIGH BASED SHOWERS...AND SOME LIGHTNING MAINLY WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAJORITY OF THE DATA SUGGESTS PRECIP WILL
HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS INTO OUR
AREA...DESPITE WHAT IS CURRENTLY ON RADAR TO OUR WEST. TIME WILL
TELL. THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH BY
TONIGHT. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN/STORMS WILL BE ON SUNDAY
WHEN A FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH...AND MOISTURE INCREASES FROM
THE SOUTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER WAVE.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN OK THIS MORNING BUT WITH
MINIMAL ON AVIATION OPS. SOME LOWER VFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NE OK AFTER 06Z SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED STORMS NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE OVER THE NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE TRYING TO MOVE INTO PARTS OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING BUT ARE HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY OVERCOMING
THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE. OVERALL PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER LOW IN OUR AREA TODAY
ALTHOUGH THE HRRR DOES INDICATE AT LEAST ISOLATED ACTIVITY
CONTINUING MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT TO SEE ENOUGH SUN THROUGH THE
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO
THE 70S.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER TONIGHT AND WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY.
THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
LAG BACK OVER THE AREA.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY WITH
MOST MODELS DEVELOPING A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN TEH VICINITY BY LATE
WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES GOING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  57  79  61 /  20  20  30  70
FSM   75  54  80  63 /  10  10  40  60
MLC   75  58  77  61 /  10  10  40  70
BVO   73  54  80  58 /  20  20  30  70
FYV   72  53  77  59 /  10  10  30  60
BYV   73  52  76  59 /  10  10  20  60
MKO   74  55  78  61 /  10  10  30  60
MIO   73  52  78  58 /  10  20  30  70
F10   74  58  77  61 /  20  10  30  60
HHW   74  57  76  63 /  10  10  50  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TULSA OK

 551 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN OK THIS MORNING BUT WITH
MINIMAL ON AVIATION OPS. SOME LOWER VFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NE OK AFTER 06Z SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED STORMS NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE OVER THE NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE TRYING TO MOVE INTO PARTS OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING BUT ARE HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY OVERCOMING
THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE. OVERALL PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER LOW IN OUR AREA TODAY
ALTHOUGH THE HRRR DOES INDICATE AT LEAST ISOLATED ACTIVITY
CONTINUING MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT TO SEE ENOUGH SUN THROUGH THE
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO
THE 70S.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER TONIGHT AND WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY.
THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
LAG BACK OVER THE AREA.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY WITH
MOST MODELS DEVELOPING A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN TEH VICINITY BY LATE
WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES GOING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...14






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEDFORD OR

 858 AM PDT SAT APR 11 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO INCREASE THE PROBABILITY
OF LIGHT SHOWERS TODAY AND THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR WEST
AND NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES IN SOUTHWEST OREGON. THE BACK EDGE OF
A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FROM THE
VICINITY OF BROOKINGS TO SEXTON SUMMIT, CRATER LAKE, AND CHEMULT.
THIS DISTURBANCE HAS GENERALLY PRODUCED ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH
OF RAIN AT THE COAST, A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE COASTAL RANGE OF
CURRY COUNTY, AND A TRACE TO 0.05 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS OF
SOUTHWEST OREGON AND FAR WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AS LIFT IS WEAK AND THE VERTICAL EXTENT OF MOISTURE IS
SHALLOW WITH CLOUD TOPS ONLY AROUND 12,000 FEET MSL. THE LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL VEER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE TROUGH.
THUS, THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY WEST OF
INTERESTATE 5. EXCEPT, THE EXCEPTION IS THAT THE FACTOR OF
INCREASED UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN JACKSON COUNTY.

THE LAST SHOWER SHOULD TAPER OFF AROUND 7 OR 8 PM PDT THIS
EVENING. BUT, LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TRANSITIONING TO
STRATUS WILL LIKELY LINGER IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT AS
RIDGING OF HIGH PRESSURE CAUSES THE AIR MASS TO STABILIZE.
OTHERWISE, THE SKIES TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. SUNDAY LOOKS
TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY AND WARMER ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 11/12Z TAF CYCLE...A PASSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BRING RAIN AND SHIFTING WINDS TO THE AREA TODAY.  MVFR AND
LOCAL IFR WITH INCREASING TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MID MORNING ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE COASTAL RANGE...WHILE MVFR IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ACROSS THE UMPQUA BASIN WITH TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS SPREADING TO THE CASCADES. SOMEWHAT STEADY VALLEY RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW IS EXPECTED PRIMARILY FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD
THROUGH NOON...WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH THE EVENING, BUT SOME RESIDUAL
AREAS OF MVFR MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
/FB

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT, SATURDAY APR 11 2015... A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING MODERATE RAIN...INCREASING WINDS...AND BUILDING SEAS AS
IT PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RETURN WITH BUILDING NORTHWEST SWELL AND ALSO MODERATE NORTH
WINDS IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THE NEXT FRONT IS
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
NEXT WEEKEND...NORTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN...WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES LIKELY AND WARNING LEVEL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
CAPE BLANCO. /FB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM PDT SAT APR 11 2015/

DISCUSSION...THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT HAS REACHED THE COAST
AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND TODAY. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL
(WHICH IS A SHORT RANGE MODEL THAT`S UPDATED HOURLY) KEEPS THE
ROGUE VALLEY DRY UNTIL MID MORNING. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ALONG THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES. AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS
FOR WESTSIDE VALLEYS WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5500 FEET, BUT COULD
LOWER TO 5000 FEET IN HEAVIER SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION COMING DURING THE DAY, ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO AROUND CRATER LAKE AND
POSSIBLY DIAMOND LAKE WHERE ROADSIDE SLUSH IS POSSIBLE.

MEANWHILE GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
CASCADES, BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. MODELS
SHOW 700 MB WINDS BETWEEN 40-45 KTS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD IN. ANY SHOWERS WILL END AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. ALSO THERE MAY BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT.

WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE AREA SUNDAY BRINGING A
RETURN TO DRY AND MILDER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL END
UP ABOVE NORMAL. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER AND STRONGER SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON, THUS
DRIVING ANOTHER AND STRONGER FRONT INTO THE AREA. RIGHT NOW, THE
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON, THEN PUSH
INLAND MONDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN
-30 AND -33 C MOVING OVERHEAD. SNOW LEVELS WILL ALSO DROP TO
AROUND 2500 FEET BY EARLY TUESDAY. THIS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF
SHOWERS COULD RESULT IN WINTRY TRAVEL ALONG HIGHWAY 140 NEAR LAKE
OF THE WOODS...HIGHWAY 66...HIGHWAYS 62 TOWARDS CRATER LAKE AND
HIGHWAY 138 AND 230 NEAR DIAMOND LAKE. THE DETAILS ON THIS ARE NOT
CLEAR DUE IN PART TO TIMING AND QPF DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS,
SO STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST UPDATES.

TUESDAY IS A TRANSITION  DAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST
AND RIDGING STARTING TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ANY SHOWERS
SHOULD END IN THE MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK, POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEKEND STILL
LOOK DRY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

DW/SBN/SBN



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEDFORD OR

 326 AM PDT SAT APR 11 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT HAS REACHED THE COAST
AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND TODAY. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL
(WHICH IS A SHORT RANGE MODEL THAT`S UPDATED HOURLY) KEEPS THE
ROGUE VALLEY DRY UNTIL MID MORNING. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ALONG THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES. AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS
FOR WESTSIDE VALLEYS WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5500 FEET, BUT COULD
LOWER TO 5000 FEET IN HEAVIER SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION COMING DURING THE DAY, ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO AROUND CRATER LAKE AND
POSSIBLY DIAMOND LAKE WHERE ROADSIDE SLUSH IS POSSIBLE.

MEANWHILE GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
CASCADES, BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. MODELS
SHOW 700 MB WINDS BETWEEN 40-45 KTS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD IN. ANY SHOWERS WILL END AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. ALSO THERE MAY BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT.

WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE AREA SUNDAY BRINGING A
RETURN TO DRY AND MILDER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL END
UP ABOVE NORMAL. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER AND STRONGER SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON, THUS
DRIVING ANOTHER AND STRONGER FRONT INTO THE AREA. RIGHT NOW, THE
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON, THEN PUSH
INLAND MONDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN
-30 AND -33 C MOVING OVERHEAD. SNOW LEVELS WILL ALSO DROP TO
AROUND 2500 FEET BY EARLY TUESDAY. THIS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF
SHOWERS COULD RESULT IN WINTRY TRAVEL ALONG HIGHWAY 140 NEAR LAKE
OF THE WOODS...HIGHWAY 66...HIGHWAYS 62 TOWARDS CRATER LAKE AND
HIGHWAY 138 AND 230 NEAR DIAMOND LAKE. THE DETAILS ON THIS ARE NOT
CLEAR DUE IN PART TO TIMING AND QPF DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS,
SO STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST UPDATES.

TUESDAY IS A TRANSITION  DAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST
AND RIDGING STARTING TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ANY SHOWERS
SHOULD END IN THE MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK, POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEKEND STILL
LOOK DRY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. -PETRUCELLI



&&

.AVIATION...A PASSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING SHIFTING WINDS
TO THE AREA TODAY. MVFR AND LOCAL IFR WITH INCREASING TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
COASTAL RANGE...WHILE MVFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ACROSS THE
UMPQUA BASIN WITH TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS SPREADING TO THE CASCADES.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE PREDOMINATE CONDITION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, HOWEVER BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS WITH
MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED CAUSING TURBULENCE
ALONG AND THE LEE SIDE OF THE CASCADES. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT, SATURDAY APR 11 2015... A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING MODERATE RAIN...INCREASING WINDS...AND BUILDING SEAS AS
IT PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RETURN WITH BUILDING NORTHWEST SWELL AND ALSO MODERATE NORTH
WINDS IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THE NEXT FRONT IS
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
NEXT WEEKEND...NORTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN...WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES LIKELY AND WARNING LEVEL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
CAPE BLANCO. FB


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING
     FOR PZZ350-370.

$$

MAP/MAP/MAP



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

 1057 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

.UPDATE...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. LATEST RAP40 ANALYSIS SHOWS SEVERAL SHORT
WAVES ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO AS THEY MOVE TO
THE NORTHEAST. SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWS RICH TROPICAL AIRMASS
PUSHING FROM THE SOUTH AT LOW LEVELS AND THE 12Z KDRT SOUNDING
BACK THIS UP. AS OF NOW...AREA RADARS ARE SHOWING SOME LIGHT
ECHOES ACROSS 2/3 OF THE REGION WITH ISOLATED MODEATE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND THE SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE OUT
WEST NEARS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIRES MODELS ARE ALL
OVER THE PLACE WITH THE FIRST WAVE BUT THEY ARE MORE IN LINE WITH
A SECOND DISTURBANCE TO COME ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK KEEPS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES UNDER A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THEREFORE...CAN`T RULE OUT FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OUT WEST
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 57. MAIN HAZARDS FOR THIS PERIOD
WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. FOR SUNDAY/SPC DAY 2
OUTLOOK...A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS EXISTS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AND
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
ALSO...ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/ EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. GFS/NAM/EWC STORM
RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES
ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES. STAY TUNED AND CLOSELY MONITOR THE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR UPDATED INFORMATION AS THIS WET PATTERN
AFFECT THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015/

AVIATION...
-SHRA ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS
MORNING. SHRA WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TODAY AND REMAIN
SCT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLD/SCT TSRA WILL DEVELOP
MIDDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. HAVE GONE VCSH/-SHRA AT THE
TAF SITES...EXCEPT VCTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. IFR
CIGS WILL PREVAIL WITH PATCHY LIFR CIGS AND IFR/MVFR VSBYS THIS
MORNING. CIGS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS
SHRA BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. CIGS FALL BACK TO IFR WITH PATCHY LIFR
CIGS AND IFR/MVFR VSBYS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. NELY WINDS
LESS THAN 10 KTS MOST AREAS WILL SLOWLY TURN SELY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING. EXCEPT SELY WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS WILL PREVAIL ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE AND EDWARDS PLATEAU.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...GOOD CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL THE NEXT 48 HOURS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. A MOIST MID
AND UPPER LEVEL TAP FROM THE PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE OVERHEAD. THE
LOWEST LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY RELATIVELY DRY BEHIND YESTERDAYS COLD
FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WHERE DEW POINTS ARE IN
THE LOW 50S. THIS WILL MODIFY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MORNING...AND LOW LEVEL H85 THETA-E
ADVECTION SETS UP OVER THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW. PWAT VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5-1.7 INCHES BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CLOSER TO 1.8-1.9 INCHES EAST OF I-35 SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...WELL ABOVE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF THE MEAN FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WARM FRONT LIFTING BACK THROUGH THE AREA
WILL SERVE AS FOCUS FOR FORCING TODAY. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO
THE HRRR AND SREF THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS...WHICH SEEM TO BE
RELATIVELY BETTER WITH ONGOING CONVECTION SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
CWA. WITH NO CAP IN PLACE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MID MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN CWA AND EXPANDING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT...AND THROUGH NORTHERN
MEXICO AND INTO FAR WEST TEXAS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. TIMING OF
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS DIFFICULT.
GENERALLY ECMWF AND GFS ARE SHOWING TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FORCING INCREASING OUT OF SOUTH AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE EWX CWA...AND THEN A SECOND DISTURBANCE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING COMING OUT OF MEXICO WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE EWX CWA. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES BROADLY
DIFFLUENT OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT BETWEEN
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND SOUTHERN
STREAM SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND MEXICO.
THIS ALL INDICATES HIGH CHANCES FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIP
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS BETTER...BUT OVERALL THE
MOIST NATURE OF THE COLUMN LOOKS MORE OF INDICATIVE OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING LOOK
TO AVERAGE AROUND 1/2 TO 1 INCH ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...1 TO 2
INCHES ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR...AND 2 TO 3
INCHES EAST OF I-35. A FEW POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...DRIER AIR DOES WORK INTO THE
RIO GRANDE AND HILL COUNTRY ON MONDAY WITH DECREASING POPS WEST TO
EAST. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EVENTUALLY OPENS AND SHEARS NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS SOUTH-
CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY. SHOULD SEE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY WITH DEEP MOISTURE STILL POOLED ALONG AND
EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. EVENTUALLY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEEPENS THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...SENDING A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL TAP FROM
THE PACIFIC CONTINUING IT APPEARS ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIP
WILL OCCUR DURING THIS TIME. DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  66  78  65  82 /  60  70  70  90  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  66  77  65  81 /  60  70  70  90  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     76  66  78  64  84 /  60  70  70  90  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  64  77  63  81 /  60  60  60  80  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77  66  80  63  85 /  60  40  50  70  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        73  65  76  65  81 /  50  70  70  80  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  66  79  64  84 /  60  60  60  90  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        75  66  77  65  82 /  60  70  70  90  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  68  77  68  81 /  60  60  70  80  50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  67  79  66  83 /  60  70  60  90  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  68  79  66  84 /  60  70  60  90  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

 646 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

.AVIATION...
-SHRA ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS
MORNING. SHRA WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TODAY AND REMAIN
SCT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLD/SCT TSRA WILL DEVELOP
MIDDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. HAVE GONE VCSH/-SHRA AT THE
TAF SITES...EXCEPT VCTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. IFR
CIGS WILL PREVAIL WITH PATCHY LIFR CIGS AND IFR/MVFR VSBYS THIS
MORNING. CIGS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS
SHRA BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. CIGS FALL BACK TO IFR WITH PATCHY LIFR
CIGS AND IFR/MVFR VSBYS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. NELY WINDS
LESS THAN 10 KTS MOST AREAS WILL SLOWLY TURN SELY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING. EXCEPT SELY WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS WILL PREVAIL ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE AND EDWARDS PLATEAU.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...GOOD CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL THE NEXT 48 HOURS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. A MOIST MID
AND UPPER LEVEL TAP FROM THE PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE OVERHEAD. THE
LOWEST LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY RELATIVELY DRY BEHIND YESTERDAYS COLD
FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WHERE DEW POINTS ARE IN
THE LOW 50S. THIS WILL MODIFY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MORNING...AND LOW LEVEL H85 THETA-E
ADVECTION SETS UP OVER THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW. PWAT VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5-1.7 INCHES BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CLOSER TO 1.8-1.9 INCHES EAST OF I-35 SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...WELL ABOVE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF THE MEAN FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WARM FRONT LIFTING BACK THROUGH THE AREA
WILL SERVE AS FOCUS FOR FORCING TODAY. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO
THE HRRR AND SREF THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS...WHICH SEEM TO BE
RELATIVELY BETTER WITH ONGOING CONVECTION SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
CWA. WITH NO CAP IN PLACE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MID MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN CWA AND EXPANDING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT...AND THROUGH NORTHERN
MEXICO AND INTO FAR WEST TEXAS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. TIMING OF
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS DIFFICULT.
GENERALLY ECMWF AND GFS ARE SHOWING TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FORCING INCREASING OUT OF SOUTH AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE EWX CWA...AND THEN A SECOND DISTURBANCE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING COMING OUT OF MEXICO WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE EWX CWA. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES BROADLY
DIFFLUENT OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT BETWEEN
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND SOUTHERN
STREAM SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND MEXICO.
THIS ALL INDICATES HIGH CHANCES FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIP
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS BETTER...BUT OVERALL THE
MOIST NATURE OF THE COLUMN LOOKS MORE OF INDICATIVE OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING LOOK
TO AVERAGE AROUND 1/2 TO 1 INCH ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...1 TO 2
INCHES ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR...AND 2 TO 3
INCHES EAST OF I-35. A FEW POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...DRIER AIR DOES WORK INTO THE
RIO GRANDE AND HILL COUNTRY ON MONDAY WITH DECREASING POPS WEST TO
EAST. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EVENTUALLY OPENS AND SHEARS NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS SOUTH-
CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY. SHOULD SEE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY WITH DEEP MOISTURE STILL POOLED ALONG AND
EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. EVENTUALLY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEEPENS THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...SENDING A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL TAP FROM
THE PACIFIC CONTINUING IT APPEARS ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIP
WILL OCCUR DURING THIS TIME. DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  66  78  65  82 /  60  70  70  90  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  66  77  65  81 /  60  70  70  90  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     76  66  78  64  84 /  60  70  70  90  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  64  77  63  81 /  60  60  60  80  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77  66  80  63  85 /  60  40  50  70  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        73  65  76  65  81 /  50  70  70  80  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  66  79  64  84 /  60  60  60  90  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        75  66  77  65  82 /  60  70  70  90  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  68  77  68  81 /  60  60  70  80  50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  67  79  66  83 /  60  70  60  90  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  68  79  66  84 /  60  70  60  90  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

 327 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY...AN INTERMEDIATE SPECIAL SOUNDING AT
XMR YIELDS A PWAT ~1.52 INCHES ALONG WITH SW FLOW AT STEERING
LEVEL NR 10 TO 15 KTS. ADDITIONALLY...TEMPS AT H5 HAVE COOLED TO
-10C. THE APCHG GULF WAVE WL HELP ADD POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADT`L
STORMS ALONG WITH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. THE
MOST RECENT 2KM HRRR SOLN INDICATES ACTIVE COASTAL BREEZES FOLDING
TOGETHER LATE THIS AFTN LIKELY BRINGING THE GREATEST HAZARD FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HAIL.
ACTIVITY RESULTING FROM THE LARGER COLLISION IS SHOWN MOVING BACK
TOWARD THE EAST COAST THROUGH DUSK...ESP N OF SEBASTIAN INLET.

SHOWER AND STROSM SHOULD WIND DOWN BY 11 PM...OR MOVE OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS...LEAVING LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND LIKELY
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG EARLY SUNDAY INLAND SPOTS.

SUNDAT... THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA WILL STAY AS SUCH
WITH THE TAIL END OF FEATURE REMAINING NORTH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIDGE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND
ONSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LOCAL
CONVERGENCE OF WINDS WILL SET UP OVER THE INTERIOR AS EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND FASTER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. WITH WEAK
STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHEST PRECIP CHC ALONG WITH EMBEDDED
STORMS OVER THE NORTH INTERIOR...50 TO 55 PERCENT. QUICKER INLAND
PUSH OF SEA BREEZE SHOULD BRING THE LOWEST POPS TO THE COAST SOUTH
OF CANAVERAL...30 PERCENT.

SUN NIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. TAIL END OF
FRONTAL IS STILL PROGGED TO HANG UP NORTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BRIDGES THE BOUNDARY AND DEVELOPS
AN ONSHORE GRADIENT WIND FLOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD RISE FROM
PREVIOUS DAYS...REACHING 1.5 INCHES OR A LITTLE HIGHER AREAWIDE.

MON-NEXT SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE
WEEK WITH A RIDGE AXIS SETTLING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY TUE. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING OFFSHORE TO OUR NORTH AT MID WEEK
WILL NOT LIKELY HAVE MUCH IMPACT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT SHOWN RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH A STRONGER FRONT THAT MAY APPROACH NEXT
WEEKEND. SO THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT MOISTURE LEVELS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NO SUPPRESSION...SO EXPECT THAT WE WILL
HAVE SCATTERED SEA BREEZE GENERATED SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY.
DISTRIBUTION OF COVERAGE WILL DEPEND ON STEERING FLOW...WHICH IS
PROGGED TO BE WEAKLY WEST TO EAST EARLY IN THE WEEK AND THEN GET
STRONGER THROUGH LATE WEEK. OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ALOFT
SHOULD ADD ADDITIONAL LIFT...AND MAY ACT TO KEEP CONVECTION GOING
WELL INTO SOME EVENINGS.

WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO CHRISTEN THE ONSET OF THE WET SEASON...IT
APPEARS MOST OF THE AREA WILL START TO SEE RAINFALL DEFICITS
DIMINISH SOME.

&&

.AVIATION...
TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS EXPECTED WITH SCT SHRA WITH SOME EMBEDDED TS
ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES FROM MID AFT AND INTO THE EVE. ISOLD SFC
WND G 35 TO 40KT AND CIGS AOB FL 035 PSBL MNLY INLAND THROUGH
12/01Z. SOME PATCHY MIFG WL BE POSSIBLE INTERIOR SITES FM
12/07Z-12/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...SW WIND FORECAST ACROSS THE WATERS WITH
A E/SE COMPONENT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS THEN BECOME MORE
ONSHORE INTO SUNDAY AS FRONT WEAKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT
AROUND 5-10 KTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WITH ANY STORMS THAT EITHER FORM NEAR THE COAST
WITH INITIALLY SEA BREEZE FORMATION OR FROM BOUNDARY COLLISIONS
LATER IN THE DAY THAT PUSH OFFSHORE...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...ESP N
OF SEBASTIAN INLET.

MON-WED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SEAWARD AND WINDS WILL VEER TO
SOUTHEAST MON THEN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ON TUE. EXPECTED SPEEDS ARE
10-15 KNOTS. ON WED THE TAIL END OF ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CAUSE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO EASE AND WINDS DIMINISH. A CHANCE FOR
STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE IS INDICATED EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING...
ESPECIALLY FROM CANAVERAL NORTHWARD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  67  83  70  82 /  30  50  30  50
MCO  67  88  69  86 /  30  50  30  50
MLB  69  84  71  83 /  40  40  30  40
VRB  68  85  70  84 /  30  30  30  30
LEE  69  86  70  84 /  20  50  30  50
SFB  68  86  69  84 /  30  50  30  50
ORL  68  86  69  85 /  30  50  30  50
FPR  68  85  71  84 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PENDERGRAST
LONG TERM....JOHNSON




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WICHITA KS

 104 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND A WEAK TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE ALOFT HAS
OVERCOME SEEMINGLY MODEST MOISTURE AND RESULTED IN SCATTERED
ELEVATED SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS FROM NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LATEST RUC HAS THE
BEST HANDLE ON THIS ACTIVITY WHICH LINGERS IT INTO THE 12Z- 15Z
TIME FRAME ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. STRONGER ELEVATED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ALOFT MIGRATES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL
ALLOW DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS LATER TODAY TO
DEVELOP/MOVE EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...BEFORE RENEWED SURFACE BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. WHILE INTENSITY SHOULD
DECREASE BY SUNDAY EVENING...COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE ALONG
THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS. COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS STILL ON TAP FOR MONDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK TO INCREASE BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER TROF MOVING FROM THE
ROCKIES AND BECOMING A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE
IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION AND MOVEMENT/TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM...THOUGH FORECAST CONSENSUS SUPPORTS MODEST CHANCE POPS BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

FOR ICT-SLN-HUT-CNU-RSL...WEAK 800-600MB WARM/MOIST ADVECTION MAY
SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY GENERALLY
ALONG/WEST OF I-135. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SPARSE SO LEFT OUT OF
TAFS FOR NOW. ANTICIPATING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FROM WEST-EAST...AS
850-700MB WARM/MOIST ADVECTION STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACTLY
WHERE ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP/MOVE AT THIS TIME...SO COVERED THREAT
WITH VCSH/VCTS FOR NOW AT ALL TERMINALS...BUT ANTICIPATE TEMPO
GROUPS WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. THINKING THUNDER THREAT WILL
GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION AFTER SUNRISE. FURTHERMORE...AFTER ABOUT
09Z...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DIURNAL COOLING WILL
SUPPORT CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR OR POSSIBLY EVEN IFR...ESPECIALLY
ICT-HUT-SLN-RSL.

ADK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCES TONIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. OTHERWISE...INCREASING SOUTH WINDS WILL ELEVATE
THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON IN RAIN-FREE AREAS AS
WELL AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    71  56  77  53 /  30  40  40  60
HUTCHINSON      70  55  78  49 /  20  50  40  40
NEWTON          70  55  76  50 /  30  50  40  50
ELDORADO        71  56  76  53 /  50  50  40  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  56  76  55 /  30  30  40  70
RUSSELL         72  55  78  44 /  30  40  20  20
GREAT BEND      72  55  79  46 /  30  40  20  20
SALINA          74  55  78  46 /  20  60  40  30
MCPHERSON       71  55  77  48 /  20  60  40  40
COFFEYVILLE     73  54  77  57 /  40  30  40  70
CHANUTE         71  54  76  54 /  40  50  50  70
IOLA            71  53  75  54 /  30  60  50  70
PARSONS-KPPF    72  54  76  56 /  40  30  40  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

 1255 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND BRING FAIR WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MIDDAY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY AND MILD WEATHER FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY
AND BRING FAIR WX WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. FAIR WX WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE RIDGE STILL IN CONTROL OF
THE WX PATTERN.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
GIVEN LACK OF SFC OR ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND WEAK LIFT WITH THIS
FRONT. FAIR WX WILL RETURN BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015

FOR THE MOST PART THE FIRST FEW DAYS (TUE/WED) WILL BE QUIET WITH A
FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND PLEASANT MID SPRING TEMPERATURES. LATER
IN THE WEEK... A SERIES OF PACIFIC SYSTEMS WILL TRY TO DIG SOME SORT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL PROGRESS WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CONUS.
HOW THIS PLAYS OUT IS ANYONE`S GUESS. THE ISSUE IS PHASING OF THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM. FOR NOW IT SORT OF LOOKS LIKE MOST OF
THE SIGNIFICANT RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF MICHIGAN
INTO FRIDAY (NO PHASING). WE WOULD GET SOME SHOWERS THURSDAY /
FRIDAY AS ONE OF THESE UNPHASED WAVES PASS THROUGH THE AREA.

ONE THING TO WATCH IS WHAT HAPPENS TO THE  SOUTHERN STREAM JET. IT
IS CURRENTLY WELL SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC....NEAR
20N. IT SEEMS TO WANT TO STAY THERE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TO
GET STRONG SYSTEM INTO MICHIGAN WE WOULD NEED A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
TO DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO TAP THAT ENERGY. CURRENTLY THAT IS DOES
NOT SEEM TO WANT TO HAPPEN. SO FOR NOW I WILL FEATURE MOSTLY LOW
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW LATER
MODEL RUNS PLAY THIS OUT.  IF NOTHING ELSE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 712 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015

ONCE THE SUN HAS A CHANCE TO HEAT THE AIR ENOUGH TO START MIXING
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER... THE PATCHY FOG AT OUR EASTERN TAF SITES
WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT (BY 14Z). MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME CU
AROUND 4000 FT AGL TODAY BUT THE OUTGOING LONG WAVE RADIATION LOOP
FROM THE 07Z HRRR DOES NOT SHOW ANY CU OVER OUR CWA TODAY EVEN SO.
NO MATTER WHAT SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1128 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015

WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY MAJOR
IMPACT TO MARINERS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP ON SUNDAY
AND BOATING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2015

MOST RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN ARE
PEAKING OR ON THE WAY DOWN AFTER THE 2 TO 3.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL
EXPERIENCED THIS PAST WEEK. THE WHITE RIVER AT WHITEHALL AND THE
ROGUE RIVER AT ROCKFORD ARE THE ONLY SITES ABOVE FLOOD LEVELS. THESE
SITES SHOULD BE IN A MINOR FLOOD STATE FOR A DAY OR TWO. MANY OTHER
SITES HAVE PEAKED BELOW FLOOD LEVEL. SITES ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN RECEIVED ONLY AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN... AND
ARE NOT EXPERIENCING HIGH RIVER LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MJS





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

 419 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 418 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

Tonight - Sunday Night:

A fairly active period as first a weak mid level shortwave tracks
ene out of CO as isentropic lift/warm air advection from 300K-310K
surface expands/increases across KS into MO. This mostly a
reflection of the nocturnal low-level jet ramping up and veering to
the southwest. The sputtering elevated convection over southwest KS
likely in response to the aforementioned h7 shortwave and isentropic
ascent. Have patterned tonight`s PoPs from last several HRRR runs
which is faster and further east with the precipitation. Seems
reasonable as the models typically underplay how far downstream warm
advection convection can extend. Elevated instability looks rather
puny and only a few hundred J/kg so will go with isolated thunder.
Small sub-severe hail possible.

First wave of convection should lift northeast in the morning with
maybe a sputtering second area following close on its heels. How the
morning convection plays out and how much the clouds clear out will
determine the strength of the stronger convection tied to the cold
front. What is interesting is how the NAM generates pre-frontal
convection along an instability axis with progged MLCAPEs in excess
of 2000 J/kg. Since there have been at least 3 consecutive model
runs generating this convection can`t totally dismiss it. The
current forecast is constructed with the idea that pre-frontal
convection will form late afternoon or early evening across
northeast KS and northwest MO with the cold front generated
convection eventually dropping southeast and merging. So, highest
PoPs will be across the northwest 1/2 of the CWA in the evening and
then allow the squalline to steadily translate southeast. The
evening convection could contain some marginally severe hail due to
the moderate instability and 30-40kt 0-6km shear which could support
sufficient updraft strength.

Monday - Tuesday:

Looks like we`ll be in between minor shortwave ridging aloft
shifting across the Northern Plains while a closed upper low lifts
northeast from West TX. Will maintain a dry forecast although there
is some concern that increasing warm air advection and weak lift
tied to the upper low opening up as it heads our way could force us
to add PoPs in later forecasts. Otherwise, dry surface high pressure
on Monday with northeast winds should grant us highs in the 65-70
range. Tuesday should see at least increasing high clouds which will
negate any boundary layer warming so max temperatures should keep
highs in the 60s.

Wednesday - Saturday:

A very uncertain period as the medium range models bounce around
with their solutions. The left overs from the closed upper low will
linger on Wednesday so will use low end chance PoPs to handle any
scattered light convection. Instability looks poor so thunder
chances will be low.

The rest of the period will be handled using a blended model
approach. As the latest GFS is now trending closely with the last
couple of runs of the ECMWF in handling the deep upper trough
tracking through the Rockies am anticipating the next forecast or
the one thereafter going towards drier conditions. The ECMWF has
trended towards developing a cut-off low over the Southern Rockies
and this solution is looking more and more likely, which would mean
delaying PoPs and above average temperatures.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

Cloud cover to the south will continue to make its way north over the
next few hours with ceilings around 10 kft. Will see convective
activity develop overnight ahead of a low-level jet through Sunday
morning. Initial isolated activity will commence near 08Z with
prevailing thunderstorms after 10Z. Ceilings will likely stay VFR as
convection will remain elevated Sunday morning. However, could see
periodic reductions in visibility as thunderstorms move through the
area. SSE winds will gradually become southerly, with gusts up to 20
kts expected Saturday afternoon and then Sunday morning with
developing convective activity. Will see improving conditions late in
the forecast period, with additional thunderstorms expected along a
cold front Sunday evening.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Welsh







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

 330 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS VA AND NC
THROUGH THIS EVENING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW AND BUILD
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH SUN...BEFORE DRIFTING
OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1050 AM SATURDAY...

A LEAD COLD FRONT HAD CLEARED ALL BUT BRUNSWICK COUNTY IN NC...WITH
A TRAILING 1019 MB SFC RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE NW NC PIEDMONT.
MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY FRONT WAS ANALYZED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
VA...AND THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND ACROSS CENTRAL
NC WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IT WILL INSTEAD SIMPLY MARK THE LEADING EDGE OF A PARENT...
1027 MB CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE IL/IN BORDER THAT
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH EARLY SUN. THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST REPRESENTED THE CLEARING WELL PER RECENT SATELLITE
TRENDS AND NEAR TERM MOISTURE PROGS...WHICH SUGGESTS THE BACK EDGE
OF THE MAINLY MID-HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL CLEAR THE TRIANGLE BETWEEN
NOON AND 1 PM...AND THE COASTAL PLAIN 2-3 HOURS LATER. SOME
ADDITIONAL BUT THIN CIRRUS WILL STREAM EAST IN WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...FROM THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
RECENT HRRR AND RAP FORECASTS SUPPORT PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED HIGHS IN
THE 70S. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 30S COURTESY OF
GENERALLY NORTH TO NNW FLOW AROUND THE LEAD RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
PIEDMONT...AND EVEN SOME 20S PROBABLE OVER THE NW PIEDMONT...THE AIR
WILL FEEL MUCH LESS HUMID THAN RECENT DAYS

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND...WHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
GRADUALLY MOVES EAST...AT LEAST THE WESTERN END OF HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. PLAN
VIEW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS AND BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED
MOISTURE IN OVERALL SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF
SUNDAY...WITH K INDICES NEAR ZERO OR BELOW. OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...THE
NAM PROVIDES FOR MORE OF A RETURN FLOW WITH FASTER EASTWARD PROGRESS
OF LOW PRESSURE OUT OF THE SOUTH PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...RESULTING IN JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUDS TOWARD THE IMMEDIATE TRIAD AND EVEN VERY
MINOR QPF. THE GFS...ON THE OTHER HAND...IN MUCH SLOWER IN THE
EASTWARD PROGRESS OF LOW PRESSURE...AND DRIER IN THE LOW LEVELS AT
LEAST THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SOME SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH REGARD TO THE MOISTURE RETURN AND ITS INFLUENCE ON LOW
TEMPERATURES THEN...AND FOR THIS FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
SLOWER SOLUTION DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND THE
SHARPENING RIDGE AXIS THAT EVEN THE NAM FORECASTS OVER THE CAROLINAS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S...LIKELY AROUND 40 KTDF TO KLHZ NORTH...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S...A LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY OVERALL WITH 1000-
850MB THICKNESSES A FEW METERS LOWER. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL LIKELY BE QUITE VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE 40S. -DJF

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM SATURDAY...

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY... SETTING UP
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE. ENERGY KICKING OUT
FROM THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT... CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY... WEDGING INTO
THE AREA INTO THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CONUS BECOMES
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED ON WEDNESDAY... WITH A DEEP TROUGH MOVING IN
TO THE WEST... BEFORE MODELS DEPICT A SPLIT FLOW REGIME DEVELOPING
ON THURSDAY... WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL US. MODEL RUNS AT
THIS POINT HAVE NOT LOCKED ON A CONSISTENT SOLUTION FOR THIS
ENERGY... BUT AS IT MOVES EASTWARD... RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY
INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD... HIGHS GENERALLY LOW
70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S... BUT THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AND
RESULTANT CLOUDINESS AND PRECIP COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM SATURDAY...

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE OH
VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GENERALLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
VEER FROM NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON TO NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AND
EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY ON SUN...AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD.
PASSING CIRRUS IN WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL FILL AN OTHERWISE CLEAR SKY.

OUTLOOK: THE CONCURRENT APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH AND
A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CULMINATE IN A GOOD CHANCE OF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN MON NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUE...WITH
SOME SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LINGERING AT FAY TROUGH TUE NIGHT...AND A
REPEAT PERFORMANCE PROBABLE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...DJF/RAH
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...RAH



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

 200 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS VA AND NC
THROUGH THIS EVENING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW AND BUILD
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH SUN...BEFORE DRIFTING
OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1050 AM SATURDAY...

A LEAD COLD FRONT HAD CLEARED ALL BUT BRUNSWICK COUNTY IN NC...WITH
A TRAILING 1019 MB SFC RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE NW NC PIEDMONT.
MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY FRONT WAS ANALYZED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
VA...AND THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND ACROSS CENTRAL
NC WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IT WILL INSTEAD SIMPLY MARK THE LEADING EDGE OF A PARENT...
1027 MB CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE IL/IN BORDER THAT
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH EARLY SUN. THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST REPRESENTED THE CLEARING WELL PER RECENT SATELLITE
TRENDS AND NEAR TERM MOISTURE PROGS...WHICH SUGGESTS THE BACK EDGE
OF THE MAINLY MID-HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL CLEAR THE TRIANGLE BETWEEN
NOON AND 1 PM...AND THE COASTAL PLAIN 2-3 HOURS LATER. SOME
ADDITIONAL BUT THIN CIRRUS WILL STREAM EAST IN WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...FROM THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
RECENT HRRR AND RAP FORECASTS SUPPORT PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED HIGHS IN
THE 70S. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 30S COURTESY OF
GENERALLY NORTH TO NNW FLOW AROUND THE LEAD RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
PIEDMONT...AND EVEN SOME 20S PROBABLE OVER THE NW PIEDMONT...THE AIR
WILL FEEL MUCH LESS HUMID THAN RECENT DAYS

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND...WHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
GRADUALLY MOVES EAST...AT LEAST THE WESTERN END OF HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. PLAN
VIEW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS AND BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED
MOISTURE IN OVERALL SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF
SUNDAY...WITH K INDICES NEAR ZERO OR BELOW. OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...THE
NAM PROVIDES FOR MORE OF A RETURN FLOW WITH FASTER EASTWARD PROGRESS
OF LOW PRESSURE OUT OF THE SOUTH PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...RESULTING IN JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUDS TOWARD THE IMMEDIATE TRIAD AND EVEN VERY
MINOR QPF. THE GFS...ON THE OTHER HAND...IN MUCH SLOWER IN THE
EASTWARD PROGRESS OF LOW PRESSURE...AND DRIER IN THE LOW LEVELS AT
LEAST THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SOME SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH REGARD TO THE MOISTURE RETURN AND ITS INFLUENCE ON LOW
TEMPERATURES THEN...AND FOR THIS FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
SLOWER SOLUTION DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND THE
SHARPENING RIDGE AXIS THAT EVEN THE NAM FORECASTS OVER THE CAROLINAS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S...LIKELY AROUND 40 KTDF TO KLHZ NORTH...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S...A LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY OVERALL WITH 1000-
850MB THICKNESSES A FEW METERS LOWER. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL LIKELY BE QUITE VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE 40S. -DJF

MONDAY...A WEAK RIDGE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. THE RAIN SHOULD STAY LARGELY TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST THROUGH THE DAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES...ALTHOUGH
SOME RAIN MAY MOVE INTO THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. -RAH

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM SATURDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN
OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM SHORE. A COLD FRONT
WILL EXTEND SSW THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID WEST FROM THE
PARENT LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL CANADA AT 00Z TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL
BECOME MORE WEST-EAST ORIENTED OVERNIGHT AS IT DISCONNECTS SOMEWHAT
FROM THE PARENT LOW. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD...ADVECTING WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION. AS FAR AS RAIN CHANCES GO...THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE
WETTER THAN THE 00Z GFS SOLUTION OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER BEST CHANCES
EARLY ON WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS THE WEST. EXPECT THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NC TO BE TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FROPA. A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD PUSH SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL NC TUESDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN BEHIND IT. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...AND
GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE
AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTED IN BEHIND AND TIMING/PROGRESSION OF THE
WARM FRONT. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND ON THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD...AND
CONTINUE RIDGING INTO THE AREA AFTER IT MOVES OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY.
THE MODELS REALLY START TO DISAGREE WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP DURING
THIS TIME...WITH THE ECMWF WETTER THAN THE GFS...THUS CONFIDENCE IS
NOT ALL THAT HIGH. FOR NOW...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO REMAIN DRY WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING RAINFALL CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM SATURDAY...

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE OH
VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GENERALLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
VEER FROM NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON TO NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AND
EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY ON SUN...AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD.
PASSING CIRRUS IN WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL FILL AN OTHERWISE CLEAR SKY.

OUTLOOK: THE CONCURRENT APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH AND
A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CULMINATE IN A GOOD CHANCE OF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN MON NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUE...WITH
SOME SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LINGERING AT FAY TROUGH TUE NIGHT...AND A
REPEAT PERFORMANCE PROBABLE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...DJF/RAH
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...RAH




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

 342 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR SHORT TERM WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOWS AND
POTENTIAL FOR SOME WEAK CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTN. FOR IMMEDIATE
SHORT TERM...HI RES MODELS HAVE DONE DECENT JOB HANDLING TODAYS
HOURLY TEMPS...WITH 8 AM RUC RUN VERIFYING FAIRLY WELL WITH 3 PM
OBSERVED TEMPS. HOWEVER...THIS HAS ONLY BEEN THE CASE IN REGIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY WHERE DAYTIME MIXING HAS BEEN THE
HIGHEST. THEREFORE USING RUC AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPS THROUGH
03Z...BUT NEEDING TO COOL OFF THE FAR EAST AND WEST WHERE WINDS
ARE SLIGHTLY LESS. USED A FCST BLENDS FOR LOW POPS TOMORROW AFTN.

TONIGHT...A SIGNIFICANT LLJ WILL DEVELOP...WITH H850 WINDS AROUND
50 KTS OVER N CNTRL MN BY 03Z. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP WELL INTO
THE EVENING FOR THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES...AND
USING RUC HOURLY TEMPS FOR THESE REGIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
SOUTHERN VALLEY MAY STAY IN THE MID 50S WITH SOME MIXING
CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. TOUGHER AREA TO FCST WILL BE
SOUTHEAST WHERE DAYTIME HIGHS WERE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER HOWEVER
THE AXIS OF THE LLJ WILL SHIFT OVER THAT AREA...WHEN THE LLJ
STRENGTHENS...IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALSO POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHOWERS/CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE EAST TOWARD MORNING.
MEANWHILE BY EARLY MORNING WE WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN SKY IN THE
NORTHWEST AS MID CLOUDS NOW OVER MT ADVECT EAST...WITH SOME SHRA
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT IN CNTRL ND.

TOMORROW...WILL SEE MORE SHRA AND POSSIBLY TSRA DEVELOP OVER N
CNTRL MN BUT THE BEST THREAT FOR ANY HELPFUL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE EAST OF THE CWA. APPROACHING FROM FROM THE WEST MAY PRODUCE
SOME RAINFALL SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 2...WITH SOME
COOLER TEMPS ADVECTING IN DURING THE DAY. MAX TEMPS IN THE VALLEY
AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN MN MAY OCCUR IN THE EARLY AFTN AND REMAIN
STEADY OF FALL SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTN. COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS ENTIRE CWA BY 00Z MON.

TOMORROW NIGHT...COOLER AIRMASS WILL BRING OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN
INTO THE 30S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR ZERO IN THE FAR NORTHWEST
AND AROUND LAKE OF THE WOODS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

MONDAY WILL BE DRY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND 60. BREEZY WESTERLY
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT...WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF WARM
WEATHER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN
HOW MUCH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE WILL GET DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
FRONTS MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NRN TIER OF
THE U.S.  12Z ECMWF IS VERY MUCH SPLIT FLOW AND KEEPS THE SRN STREAM
MOISTURE WELL TO OUR SOUTH UNTIL SYSTEM MOVES TO OUR EAST OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.  12Z GFS/GEM REMAINS A BIT WETTER WITH FRONT
MOVING THROUGH WED AFTN-EVE.  WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC POPS FOR
SHOWERS.  NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE EAST WILL COME LATE SATURDAY...WHICH
WILL THE SAME MOISTURE ISSUES THAN THE MID WEEK ONE WILL HAVE.  LOOK
FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE AREA...BUT STILL 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

CLEAR SKIES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT NW WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
EAST...HOWEVER SOUTHERLY WINDS TOMORROW WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOW RH WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH ON SUNDAY...WITH WINDS
BECOMING GUSTY FROM THE WEST IN ITS WAKE. WHILE TEMPS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT COOLER ON SUNDAY...DEEP MIXING WILL RESULT IN LOW RH
VALUES...LOWEST WEST OF THE VALLEY. NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER SE ND...BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD AND
TEMP TRENDS. RH MAY BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER FARTHER EAST WHERE THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR LATER. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE START OF THE WEEK...WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS AND VERY
DRY AIR (RH NEAR OR UNDER 20 PERCENT) POSSIBLY LEADING TO CRITICAL
CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY. TUESDAY MAY BE ANOTHER CRITICAL OR NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ008-016-
     026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>005-007-
     008-013>015-022-023-027>031-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER
AVIATION...RIDDLE
FIRE WEATHER...MAKOWSKI







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 1245 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

SO FAR WINDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE BELOW EXPECTATIONS HOWEVER THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL BE WHEN THE ATMOSPHERE
LINKS UP WITH THE 925 MB WINDS. EXPECT THIS TO OCCUR BETWEEN 1 AND
6 PM CDT. STILL LOOKS OK FOR RED FLAG AS THE MIN HR VALUES WILL BE IN
THE TEENS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 922 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

SOUTHERLY 925 MB LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 35 KTS FROM RUC MODEL OVER
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SHOWERS EXITING
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME. THE WIND SPEEDS AT 925
SUGGEST SURFACE WINDS WINDS WILL PICK UP SOON AS WELL. HOWEVER
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS LOW LEVEL WIND MAX WILL MOVE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON SO DO NOT EXPECT TO REALIZE THESE STRONG WINDS THERE.
THERE WILL BE A RELATIVE WIND MAX THERE OF 20 TO 30 MPH. CURRENT
STATUS OF RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS THE SAME AND LOOKS OK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. A WEAK WAVE MOVING ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA
BORDER IS PRODUCING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM BISMARCK TO
JAMESTOWN AND SOUTH INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. A SPRINKLE OR TWO MAY BE
REACHING THE GROUND BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AN
HAVE REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THAT WAS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH 7 AM. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST...OR
CURRENT FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL KEEP A
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH H850 IN
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND UP THROUGH H700 IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS WILL ALLOW MIXING OF LOW LEVELS TO A DRY LAYER ALOFT.
INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. THE JAMES VALLEY MAY SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AS THE POCKET OF DRY/WINDY AIR
ALOFT SHIFTS TO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY. SEE THE
FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS. LOOKING AT A WARM DAY TODAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

MEANWHILE AT UPPER LEVELS...A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
ROCKIES TODAY EXPANDS INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS TONIGHT...AND MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

TONIGHT A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES IN BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH
DECENT COLD ADVECTION. LOOK FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE STATE AND BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED
WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH AT TIMES. A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY. COOLER
WITH HIGHS 50 TO 60. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY
IMPULSES WILL CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON
SUNDAY.

CONTINUED WINDY ON MONDAY. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHOULD
BE EAST OF THE STATE. THE COMBINATION OF THE VIGOROUS DEPARTING LOW
TO OUR EAST/NORTHEAST AND STRONG WARM AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST WILL PROVIDE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE.
YET ANOTHER DAY OF POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. A BIT WARMER
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

A PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. ON TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES AND MOVING INTO THE MONDAK REGION BY 00 UTC WEDNESDAY.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL BRING BREEZY
CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
INTO THE 70S...AND SOME 80 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTH. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AS
THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MEAN ANOTHER DAY WITH LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST. STILL SOME
CONCERNS AS TO WHETHER STRONGER WINDS WILL MATCH UP WITH THE LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES.

THE SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE SPLITTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEDNESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT. RAIN SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH MOST AREAS
SEEING THE POSSIBILITY OF UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH...AND POSSIBLY
LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO A QUARTER INCH.

COULD SEE A LINGERING SHOWER EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING IN THE FAR
EASTERN FORECAST AREA...BUT THEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDS
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
GFS BRINGS ANOTHER QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND
STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
ON SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THE ECMWF ARE NOT THAT MUCH
MORE IMPRESSIVE.

EXCEPT FOR THE VERY MILD DAY ON TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE A STRONG COLD
FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS
BOUNDARY...EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR TWO POSSIBLE AT KISN OR
KDIK AFT 03Z ON SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

RED FLAG WARNING TODAY.

EXPECT THAT RECENT RAIN/SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT IN THE
SOUTHWEST HAS MELTED/EVAPORATED OR FILTERED INTO THE TOPSOIL...AT
LEAST KNOWING THAT PARTS OF THOSE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES DID NOT HAVE
ANY SNOW COVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. NO REPORTS OF GRASSLANDS
BEGINNING TO GREEN UP.

RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND ALL OF
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20
TO 25 MPH BY AROUND NOON...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S...AND
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY. THIS INCLUDES WILLISTON AND BOWMAN...GARRISON TO
JAMESTOWN AND SOUTH.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE SUNDAY. CONFIDENT ON NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS IS FROM A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE 50S. THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
DRYING AT LOWER LEVELS FOR MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF
AROUND 20 PERCENT SOUTH AND 25 TO 30 PERCENT NORTH.
HOWEVER...EXPECTING SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS. MAY NEED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH/RED FLAG WARNING -
ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF/TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE.

CONTINUED WINDY MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S...AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ009-010-017>021-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA/ZH
FIRE WEATHER...JV







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TULSA OK

 1208 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 18Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MID CLOUD AND
RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT OUT OF NE OK...BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY
MAJOR IMPACT TO AIRCRAFT OPS. MVFR CIGS ARE PROGGED TO RETURN
EARLY SUNDAY AS LOW LVL MOISTURE RETURN GETS UNDERWAY ACROSS E OK.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 948 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURRING WELL ABOVE THE SURFACE ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT WHICH PASSED THRU A COUPLE DAYS AGO IS
PRODUCING HIGH BASED SHOWERS...AND SOME LIGHTNING MAINLY WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAJORITY OF THE DATA SUGGESTS PRECIP WILL
HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS INTO OUR
AREA...DESPITE WHAT IS CURRENTLY ON RADAR TO OUR WEST. TIME WILL
TELL. THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH BY
TONIGHT. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN/STORMS WILL BE ON SUNDAY
WHEN A FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH...AND MOISTURE INCREASES FROM
THE SOUTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER WAVE.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN OK THIS MORNING BUT WITH
MINIMAL ON AVIATION OPS. SOME LOWER VFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NE OK AFTER 06Z SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED STORMS NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE OVER THE NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE TRYING TO MOVE INTO PARTS OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING BUT ARE HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY OVERCOMING
THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE. OVERALL PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER LOW IN OUR AREA TODAY
ALTHOUGH THE HRRR DOES INDICATE AT LEAST ISOLATED ACTIVITY
CONTINUING MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT TO SEE ENOUGH SUN THROUGH THE
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO
THE 70S.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER TONIGHT AND WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY.
THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
LAG BACK OVER THE AREA.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY WITH
MOST MODELS DEVELOPING A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN TEH VICINITY BY LATE
WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES GOING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  79  61  72 /  20  30  70  50
FSM   54  80  63  74 /  10  40  60  70
MLC   58  77  61  72 /  10  40  70  60
BVO   54  80  58  72 /  20  30  70  30
FYV   53  77  59  69 /  10  30  60  60
BYV   52  76  59  70 /  10  20  60  60
MKO   55  78  61  72 /  10  30  60  60
MIO   52  78  58  71 /  20  30  70  40
F10   58  77  61  72 /  10  30  60  60
HHW   57  76  63  74 /  10  50  80  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

 1222 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

.AVIATION...
DIFFICULT TAF FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24/30 HOURS WITH CONTINUED IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AND CONTINUED POSSIBILITIES OF SHOWERS.
CURRENTLY...CEILINGS ARE BORDERLINE LIFR/IFR WITH VISIBILITIES
SLOWLY IMPROVING. A BATCH OF SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
BEXAR COUNTY AND WILL BEGIN TAFSAT/TAFSSF WITH -SHRA FOR THIS
ACTIVITY. LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THAT THE IFR CEILINGS WILL
NOT IMPROVE WITH IFR REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THINK THIS IS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE TRENDS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MVFR AROUND NOON TOMORROW.

REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID TAF
PERIOD...ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN MORE SCATTERED THAN CONTINUOUS.
BECAUSE OF THIS...IT IS EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN A PRECISE
TIME WHEN ANY GIVEN TERMINAL WILL BE DEALING WITH PRECIPITATION.
WILL CONTINUE TO HANDLE THIS WITH A VCSH GROUP FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD AND TRY TO GIVE SOME HEADS UP OF PREVAILING ACTIVITY WITH
AMENDMENTS AND FUTURE ROUTINE ISSUANCES. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 60S...THINK THUNDER
CHANCES ARE LOWER AND WILL OPT NOT TO MENTION THUNDER AT THIS
TIME.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015/

UPDATE...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. LATEST RAP40 ANALYSIS SHOWS SEVERAL SHORT
WAVES ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO AS THEY MOVE TO
THE NORTHEAST. SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWS RICH TROPICAL AIRMASS
PUSHING FROM THE SOUTH AT LOW LEVELS AND THE 12Z KDRT SOUNDING
BACK THIS UP. AS OF NOW...AREA RADARS ARE SHOWING SOME LIGHT
ECHOES ACROSS 2/3 OF THE REGION WITH ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND THE SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE OUT
WEST NEARS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIRES MODELS ARE ALL
OVER THE PLACE WITH THE FIRST WAVE BUT THEY ARE MORE IN LINE WITH
A SECOND DISTURBANCE TO COME ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK KEEPS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES UNDER A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THEREFORE...CAN`T RULE OUT FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OUT WEST
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 57. MAIN HAZARDS FOR THIS PERIOD
WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. FOR SUNDAY/SPC DAY 2
OUTLOOK...A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS EXISTS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AND
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
ALSO...ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/ EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. GFS/NAM/EWC STORM
RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES
ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES. STAY TUNED AND CLOSELY MONITOR THE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR UPDATED INFORMATION AS THIS WET PATTERN
AFFECT THE AREA.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...GOOD CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL THE NEXT 48 HOURS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. A MOIST MID
AND UPPER LEVEL TAP FROM THE PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE OVERHEAD. THE
LOWEST LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY RELATIVELY DRY BEHIND YESTERDAYS COLD
FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WHERE DEW POINTS ARE IN
THE LOW 50S. THIS WILL MODIFY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MORNING...AND LOW LEVEL H85 THETA-E
ADVECTION SETS UP OVER THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW. PWAT VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5-1.7 INCHES BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CLOSER TO 1.8-1.9 INCHES EAST OF I-35 SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...WELL ABOVE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF THE MEAN FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WARM FRONT LIFTING BACK THROUGH THE AREA
WILL SERVE AS FOCUS FOR FORCING TODAY. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO
THE HRRR AND SREF THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS...WHICH SEEM TO BE
RELATIVELY BETTER WITH ONGOING CONVECTION SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
CWA. WITH NO CAP IN PLACE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MID MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN CWA AND EXPANDING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT...AND THROUGH NORTHERN
MEXICO AND INTO FAR WEST TEXAS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. TIMING OF
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS DIFFICULT.
GENERALLY ECMWF AND GFS ARE SHOWING TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FORCING INCREASING OUT OF SOUTH AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE EWX CWA...AND THEN A SECOND DISTURBANCE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING COMING OUT OF MEXICO WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE EWX CWA. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES BROADLY
DIFFLUENT OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT BETWEEN
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND SOUTHERN
STREAM SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND MEXICO.
THIS ALL INDICATES HIGH CHANCES FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIP
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS BETTER...BUT OVERALL THE
MOIST NATURE OF THE COLUMN LOOKS MORE OF INDICATIVE OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING LOOK
TO AVERAGE AROUND 1/2 TO 1 INCH ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...1 TO 2
INCHES ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR...AND 2 TO 3
INCHES EAST OF I-35. A FEW POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...DRIER AIR DOES WORK INTO THE
RIO GRANDE AND HILL COUNTRY ON MONDAY WITH DECREASING POPS WEST TO
EAST. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EVENTUALLY OPENS AND SHEARS NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS SOUTH-
CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY. SHOULD SEE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY WITH DEEP MOISTURE STILL POOLED ALONG AND
EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. EVENTUALLY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEEPENS THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...SENDING A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL TAP FROM
THE PACIFIC CONTINUING IT APPEARS ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIP
WILL OCCUR DURING THIS TIME. DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              69  66  78  65  82 /  60  70  70  90  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  66  77  65  81 /  60  70  70  90  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     71  66  78  64  84 /  60  70  70  90  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  64  77  63  81 /  60  60  60  80  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  66  80  63  85 /  60  40  50  70  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        69  65  76  65  81 /  50  70  70  80  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  66  79  64  84 /  60  60  60  90  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        71  66  77  65  82 /  60  70  70  90  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   73  68  77  68  81 /  60  60  70  80  50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  67  79  66  83 /  60  70  60  90  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           72  68  79  66  84 /  60  70  60  90  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LUBBOCK TX

 1118 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

.UPDATE...
LATEST MORNING MODEL RUNS HAVE OFFERED LITTLE REASON TO CHANGE THE
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN ISSUE MODELS AND FORECASTERS
SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING WITH IS IF WE WILL SEE STORM INITIATION BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL NO DISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL MAKE INITIATION A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT.
WE WILL HAVE TO RELY ON DRYLINE CONVERGENCE AND ABUNDANT SURFACE
HEATING. LOW STRATUS HAD FORMED WHEN MORNING CONVECTION CLEARED
OUT BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR MUCH LONGER ALLOWING FOR
FULL SUNSHINE.

OTHERWISE...THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS LOOK GOOD FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SURFACE HEATING INTO THE 70S WILL ALLOW
FOR SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO REACH BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG
WITH MINIMAL CIN NEAREST THE DRYLINE. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING
CAP TO THE EAST PREVENTING MUCH DEVELOPMENT IN THE ROLLING PLAINS.
LOW LEVEL THETA-E VALUES WERE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS
DEPICTED IN THE RAP ANALYSIS. LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE
FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS. DEW POINTS IN THE 50S WILL NOT
GIVE US LOW LCLS BUT WILL NOT BE VERY HIGH WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
IN THE 70S. MODELS ARE AGREEING UPON A SLIGHT BULGE IN THE DRYLINE
DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS WHICH MAY ALLOW THE STRONGEST AREA
OF INTEREST TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE. GIVEN THE ABOVE REASONING...IF WE DO SEE
INITIATION...STORMS WOULD LIKELY BECOME SEVERE QUICKLY. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF TORNADOES GIVEN THE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR BUT
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015/

AVIATION...
SCATTERED -TSRA WERE EAST OF KLBB AND KPVW EARLY THIS
MORNING...WHILE ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED WEST AND EAST
OF KCDS AND HAVE THEREFORE INSERTED A VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS AT
KCDS. COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT -TSRA POPPING UP NEAR KLBB AND KPVW
THIS MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE OF INSERTING A MENTION IS LOW AT THIS
TIME. VFR DECKS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR CRITERIA LATER
THIS MORNING AT ALL THREE TAF SITES UNTIL EARLY AFTN WHEN
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR. ADDITIONAL -TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP WEST OF KLBB AND KPVW THIS AFTERNOON...AND COULD POSSIBLY
AFFECT ALL THREE TAF SITES AS THE ACTIVITY SHIFT EASTWARD WITH
TIME. FURTHERMORE...SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INSERT A PRECIP MENTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL OF
COURSE AMEND AS NECESSARY. TONIGHT AS THE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY
SHIFT EAST AND AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS...COULD SEE VFR/MVFR FOG
AND MVFR DECKS DEVELOP GIVEN THE MOIST ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS...THOUGH S-SE WIND SPEEDS STAYING UP A BIT MAY
MITIGATE FOG POTENTIAL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015/

SHORT TERM...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS SHARPENED IN THE LAST 24
HOURS...COURTESY OF A CLOSED UA LOW ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC /WELL
WEST OF BAJA OF CALI/ THAT IS GRADUALLY DRIFTING SSEWRD. AS SUCH...A
PLUME OF RICH PACIFIC MOISTURE IS STREAMING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. LOOKING AT THE SFC...THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS WAS
ENVELOPED BY AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME PER 07Z METARS...WHICH HAS
GARNERED DEWPOINTS TO INCREASE INTO THE 30S AND 40S AND HENCE HAVE
PWATS OF 0.75-0.85 INCHES. THIS RISE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...COUPLED
WITH A 25-35 KT LLJ AND AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...HAS LED
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ERN NM THAT HAS TRANSLATED ENEWRD TO ACROSS THE
SW SOUTH PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL SOUTH PLAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE TTU MESONET SITE LOCATED 7 MILES WNW OF DENVER CITY
RECORDED 0.13 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITHIN 20 MINUTES DUE TO THIS
ACTIVITY. COULD ALSO SEE BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH AS THIS
ACTIVITY IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS
LATER THIS MORNING. FURTHERMORE...THE SURGE IN MOISTURE COULD
PROMOTE MVFR CLOUD DECKS BY DAYBREAK.

THIS AFTN COULD SHAPE UP TO BE QUITE INTERESTING. S-SE SFC WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA WHILST SWRLY SFC WINDS OCCUR MORE SO
ACROSS ERN NM...THUS SHARPENING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DRYLINE ALONG
THE TX/NM BORDER. AT FIRST A BIT OF CIN WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME BUT
BY LATE AFTN...CIN IS QUITE NEGLIGIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE AXIS OF
THE DRYLINE AND THUS MODEL SOLUTIONS BREAK OUT PRECIP ACROSS LOCALES
ON THE CAPROCK AS THE DRYLINE BULGES A BIT EWRD. STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES...MUCAPE VALUES INCREASING TO AOA 1000 J/KG AND A WEAK IMPULSE
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE AFTN
WILL LEAD TO CONCERNS FOR STORMS TO REACH STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
LEVELS. MAIN SEVERE CONCERNS WILL BE HAIL AROUND THE SIZE OF GOLF
BALLS AND WIND GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER. HOWEVER...VEERING
VERTICAL WIND PROFILES AS WELL AS ADEQUATE VEERING AT THE LOW LEVELS
/0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35-45 KTS/ DOES SUGGEST STORMS WILL BE
ROTATING...AND THUS AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THOUGH
LCL/S ARE NOT TERRIBLY LOW /5000 FT AGL OR SO/. MAKE SURE YOU STAY
ABREAST OF THE LATEST WX CONDITIONS BY LISTENING TO YOUR NOAA WX
RADIO...GOING TO OUR WEBSITE /WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LUBBOCK/ AND/OR
WATCHING YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET. TONIGHT...BEST POPS WILL SHIFT
EWRD TO ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND THE RETURN OF THE LLJ /30-40
KTS/ WILL AID IN FEEDING THE STORM ACTIVITY UNTIL IT EXITS THE
REGION. ENSUING S-SE SFC WINDS MAY BRING ABOUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STRATUS DECK AND/OR FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

AN UPTICK IN 850 MB TEMPS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY /70S/ FOLLOWED BY A MILD NIGHT /50S AND 60S/.

LONG TERM...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN CHANCES STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR THE FCST
AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
THAT AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING WAS STILL WELL OFF THE COAST OF SRN
AND BAJA CALIFORNIA. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW...STILL TRACKING IT SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO
THE SOUTH WITH EACH RUN. ATTM SUNDAY LOOKS LIKELY TO BE DRY UNTIL
LATER IN THE AFTN WHEN THE COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM
THE UPPER LOW AND AFTERNOON HEATING WORK ON A REASONABLY MOIST AIR
MASS TO BEGIN SPREADING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NWD
FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO SEE RAIN
CONCENTRATED ALONG THE DEFORMATION AXIS TO THE NORTH OF THE UPPER
LOW...THE LOCATION OF WHICH WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW...THUS A FARTHER SOUTH TRACK SIMILAR TO THE 00Z WRF-NAM WILL
BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE FCST AREA. MONDAY MIGHT END UP BEING THE
WETTEST...AT LEAST AS FAR AS HOW MUCH OF THE FCST RECEIVES
RAINFALL...AS EVEN IF THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS FARTHER NORTH...
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION OF THE MOIST AIR MASS UNDERNEATH THE LOW
ITSELF WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. EFFECT
OF A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED
EITHER...POSSIBLY SERVING AS ANOTHER FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. ALL IN ALL CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND WILL
NUDGE POPS UP IN THAT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD.

THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD STILL LOOKS GENERALLY BENIGN...
ALTHOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A
SOLUTION WITH MORE ENERGY IN THIS TROUGH...CUTTING OFF A FAIRLY
STRONG LOW OVER THE CNTL PLAINS THEN DRIFTING IT EWD. COULD SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTN OR NIGHT AND INTRODUCED A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THEN. OTHERWISE...COOLER AIR SHOULD MOVE SWD
BEHIND THIS DEVELOPING TROUGH/LOW WITH TEMPS COOLING AGAIN FOR
THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        75  51  78  48 /  20  20  30  60
TULIA         72  56  79  54 /  40  20  30  60
PLAINVIEW     73  57  79  56 /  40  20  30  60
LEVELLAND     78  57  79  51 /  30  20  40  60
LUBBOCK       76  58  80  54 /  30  20  40  60
DENVER CITY   80  57  78  53 /  20  20  40  50
BROWNFIELD    78  58  80  52 /  30  20  40  50
CHILDRESS     73  60  82  60 /  50  30  30  60
SPUR          73  60  80  56 /  50  20  40  60
ASPERMONT     77  62  83  60 /  50  30  40  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01