Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/10/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1123 PM MDT TUE APR 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM MDT TUE APR 7 2015
ALLOWED THIS EVENINGS RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE. IN ADDITION...
ADDED AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO SECTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO PLAINS FROM LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT TUE APR 7 2015
...EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY...
RED FLAG CONDITIONS CURRENTLY BEING MET OVER MOST OF THE
CWA...EXCEPT NR THE KS BORDER OVER THE FAR SERN PLAINS...WHERE QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS HOLDING STEADY AND ERLY WINDS STILL
MAINTAINING DEW POINTS IN THE 20S-30S. WILL SEE GUSTY SW WINDS
CONTINUE OVER THE REST OF OUR AREA THROUGH EARLY EVE. THE ERLY PUSH
SHOULD ADVANCE INTO CROWLEY AND OTERO COUNTIES TONIGHT...POSSIBLY
MAKING A RUN TOWARDS KPUB...BUT LOW CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY BE CONFINED
TO THE FAR NERN COUNTIES.
STILL LOOKS LIKE TOMORROW WILL SEE THE WORST OF THE CRITICAL FIRE WX
CONDITIONS. MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR ERN COUNTIES TO MIX OUT DO TO THE
OVERNIGHT PUSH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
SHOULD SEE RH FALL BELOW 10 PERCENT FOR MOST SPOTS...AND SW WINDS
GUSTING IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE. THE WORST CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE ALONG
AND NR THE I-25 CORRIDOR FROM KPUB AND SOUTHWARD...BUT IT WILL NOT
BE MUCH BETTER ELSEWHERE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...WILL HAVE TO BE EXTREMELY
CAUTIOUS TOMORROW TO AVOID FIRE STARTS SINCE ANY FIRE COULD QUICKLY
GET OUT OF CONTROL.
TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE THROUGH TOMORROW...SO DESPITE
THE STRONG WRLY FLOW SHOULD SEE TEMPS GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 60S TO
AROUND 70 OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR...AND IN THE 70S FOR THE ERN PLAINS
TOMORROW. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THEN
SHOULD SEE SOME LIGHT SHSN DEVELOP OVER THE CONTDVD. ANY ACCUMS
TOMORROW WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHER PEAKS
ALONG THE DVD. HAVE CUT BACK POPS A BIT MORE FOR THE REST OF OUR AREA
TOMORROW...AS MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS THE PRECIP N OF OUR AREA WITH THE
H5 CENTER RIDING EWD ALONG THE CO-WY BORDER. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT TUE APR 7 2015
AN UPR TROF WL BE MOVING ACRS THE AREA WED NIGHT...WITH WEST TO NW
SFC WINDS ACRS THE AREA. IT LOOKS WINDY MANY AREAS IN THE EVENING
AND JUST BREEZY THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE FORECAST MODELS SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS IN THE EVENING
HRS...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. THE UPR TROF WL EXIT THE AREA
THU MORNING...WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS ACRS THE ERN PLAINS BEHIND THE
TROF. THE WX LOOKS DRY IN THE MORNING BUT THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLD
PCPN OVR SOME OF THE MTN AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVR THE PIKES PEAK AREA AND THE CENTRAL MTNS.
ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS OVR THE FAR ERN PLAINS
THU AFTERNOON...RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE TOO HIGH FOR FIRE WX
CONCERNS. TEMPS ON THU WL BE COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE TROF...BUT
HIGH ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE.
ON FRI WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WL BE OVR THE FORECAST AREA WITH AN UPR
TROF MOVING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES OF MTN AND WY. THE WX GENERALLY
LOOKS DRY ON FRI WITH HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE. SATURDAY
THAT UPR TROF TO THE NORTH WL MOVE INTO THE DAKOTAS SENDING A FRONT
INTO THE ERN CO PLAINS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW WL MOVE ACRS
THE AREA SAT AND COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS. THE GFS KEEPS THE BEST
MSTR AND PCPN TO THE EAST...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS PCPN CHANCES ACRS
MUCH OF THE AREA SAT AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WL JUST GO WITH SOME ISOLD
POPS OVR THE MTNS AND NR THE KS BORDER.
FOR SUN AN UPR TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WRN CO AND WRN NM LATE
IN THE DAY. CONDITIONS ARE STILL GENERALLY DRY ACRS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOME ISOLD TO SCT MTNS
SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN BE ABOVE AVERAGE. SUN NIGHT AND
EARLY MON THAT TROF MOVES ACRS THE STATE...POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. AS THE TROF EXITS THE STATE TO THE EAST...SOME
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE...ALONG WITH SOME
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS.
ON TUE AS A NEW UPR TROF MOVES INTO THE WRN STATE...BREEZY SWRLY
WINDS RETURN TO THE AREA ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WX CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM MDT TUE APR 7 2015
MOIST AIR MASS AND ACCOMPANYING IFR STRATUS AND FOG CONTINUE TO
BACK SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE COLORADO PLAINS THIS EVENING...WITH
04Z HRRR NOW SUGGESTING BOUNDARY WILL PUSH ALL THE WAY WEST TO
KPUB AND KCOS OVERNIGHT BEFORE RETREATING EASTWARD QUICKLY DURING
THE DAY WED. UNSURE IF STRATUS DECK WILL MAKE IT AS FAR WEST AS
WIND SHIFT DOES...SO WILL KEEP BOTH KCOS AND KPUB TAFS VFR
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WED...AND INTRODUCE ONLY SOME SCT
LOWER CLOUDS AT THIS POINT. IFR CONDITIONS WON`T BE TOO FAR AWAY
FROM KCOS BY 12Z...AND SUSPECT KFLY AND KMNH WILL SEE A PERIOD OF
LOWER CLOUDS IN THE MORNING. KALS WILL REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY WED. W-SW WINDS WILL INCREASE ALL TERMINALS BY
18Z...WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE WIDESPREAD DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ222-
224>237.
&&
$$
AVIATION...PETERSEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
938 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AM APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN LATER
TONIGHT. THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MUCH MILDER TEMPS AND A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION. A COLD FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING WITH A ROUND OF SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL YIELD SEASONABLE TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
DRY AND MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...
SHOWERS ASSOCD WITH 850 MB WARM FRONT AND NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET MOVING EAST FROM CENTRAL AND E NY. HRRR BRINGS RAIN INTO W
ZONES BY 05Z THEN SPREADING EAST ACROSS REST OF THE REGION 06-09Z.
TEMPS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN N MA AROUND 32 SO THERE IS A
RISK OF POCKETS OF FZRA/FZDZ. OTHERWISE...AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND
FOG WILL PERSIST AS THE SFC WARM FRONT REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION.
UPDATED POPS USING THE HRRR AS A BASELINE. RAIN WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN MA WHERE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS
STRONGEST.
TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY RISE LATE TONIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGING
ERODES AND LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...
WARM FRONTAL RAINS MAY LINGER INTO THE AM COMMUTE ACROSS EASTERN MA
AND RI. OTHERWISE EXPECTING A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIP FROM LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. WARM SECTOR IS SLOW IS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA WITH TEMPS JUMPING INTO THE 50S REGIONWIDE BETWEEN 5 PM AND
8 PM. LOW PROB SOME TOWNS BRIEFLY TOUCH 60.
IN ADDITION...DEW PTS JUMP INTO THE 50S LATE TOMORROW AND THIS HELP
ERODE /VIA CONDENSATION/ REMNANT SNOWPACK ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
LIKEWISE THIS WILL RESULT IN PATCHY FOG.
COLD FRONT APPROACHES WESTERN MA/CT BY 21Z WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS
LIKELY...PROBABLY ENTERING EASTERN MA AND RI BY 00Z. ISOLATED
THUNDER POSSIBLE AS STRONG LOW LEVEL JET YIELDS A WARM ANOMALY OF
+20C AROUND 900 MB. THIS YIELDS MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES FROM 900-
700 MB. MODEST SYNOPTIC AND FRONTAL SCALE FORCING COMBINED WITH
MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALOFT ALONG WITH PWATS NEAR +3 STD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE CLIMO WILL LIKELY YIELD SOME SHOWERS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. NOT
EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING BUT NUISANCE TYPE URBAN/POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AND COULD IMPACT/SLOW THE LATE DAY
COMMUTE.
NOT EXPECTING STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO MIX TO THE SURFACE GIVEN THE
STRONG LOW LEVEL TEMP INVERSION.
FRI NIGHT...
EARLY EVENING SHOWERS LIKELY ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA BUT QUICK
IMPROVEMENT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER IN THE EVENING FROM WEST
TO EAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION IS WEAK BEHIND THE FRONT SO TEMPS WILL
BE RELATIVELY MILD FRI NIGHT/SAT AM WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* PLEASANT AND MORE SPRING-LIKE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
* COLD FRONT BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY
* SEASONAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK
OVERVIEW...
12Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE LONG TERMS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWING THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING SHOWERS TO NEW
ENGLAND. THE LATEST EC HAS SLOWED DOWN ON THE PASSAGE MAKING IT MORE
IN LINE WITH THE GFS. STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BY MID-NEXT WEEK. MAY NEED TO WATCH QUICK
MOVING SYSTEMS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FLOW...HOWEVER TRENDED TOWARDS
DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN BY NEXT WEEK WITH A CUT-OFF LOW FLOATING ACROSS THE MIDWEST
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHEN AND WHERE THIS WILL SET
UP BUT SOMETHING TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
DETAILS...
* WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR
DRY AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL
SWING THROUGH ON SATURDAY WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR DIURNAL CU TO OVER
SPREAD AND TEMPS IN THE MID 50 TO UPPER 50S. WIND GUSTS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT ALLOWING FOR GUSTS TO
REACH NEAR 30MPH.
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN ALLOWING ALLOWING FOR A COOL
MORNING ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER TEMPS WILL REBOUND THANKS TO FULL SUN AND
DRY WEATHER. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WHICH IS NEAR
OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR SEABREEZE
DEVELOPMENTS.
* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGHER CONFIDENCE.
QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR WAA PUSHING 850MB TEMPS TO 8C DURING THE DAY. THANKS TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WE COULD SEE TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID 60S.
MAY NEED TO WATCH MONDAY FOR POSSIBLE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. STATE FIRE OFFICIALS HAVE DETERMINED THAT FUELS ESP ACROSS
CT...RI AND SE MASS HAVE BEEN DRYING OUT AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND. MONDAY WILL BE WINDY WITH RH LEVELS
AROUND 30-40 PERCENT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIFT IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL SO EXPECT JUST SCT SHOWERS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY KEEPING
TEMPS INTO THE 60S. DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE THE WINDS
UP TO 25 MPH.
* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD DURING
THE MID-WEEK. THIS WILL BRING HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND. 850MB
TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 4C SO ANTICIPATE TEMPS REACHING THE LOW TO MID
60S. HOWEVER IT WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST. MAY NEED TO WATCH
FOR SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENTS DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER 00Z...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR IN DRIZZLE AND FOG WITH RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE REGION 04-06Z WEST...06-09Z EAST.
FRI...IFR/LIFR EARLY ALONG WITH RAIN EXITING EASTERN MA. THEN
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO IFR/MVFR LATE MORNING INTO EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A LULL IN PRECIP. LLWS LIKELY 16Z-03Z AS 50
KT LOW LEVEL SW JET MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS REDEVELOP 21Z
WEST AND EXIT EASTERN MA 02Z. LOW RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
FRI NIGHT...IFR/LIFR EARLY ALONG WITH SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTM
EASTERN MA MOVES OFFSHORE WITH QUICK IMPROVEMENT FROM WEST TO EAST
TO VFR BY LATE FRI NIGHT ALONG WITH WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO WNW.
KBOS TAF...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. LLWS LIKELY 16Z
FRI TO ABOUT 02Z SAT AS 50 KT LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST JET MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. HEAVY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTM POSSIBLE 22Z FRI - 02Z
SAT. SHARP IMPROVEMENT FRI NIGHT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
KBDL TAF...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. BIG IMPROVEMENT
FRI EVENING WITH WIND SHIFT.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. GUSTY WINDS ON
SATURDAY UP TO 25-30 KTS.
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY
VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT -SHRA.
TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR. GUSTY WEST
WINDS UP TO 25 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...NE WINDS 15-20 BECOMING SE AND THEN S TOWARD MORNING.
VSBYS REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG.
FRIDAY...SW WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH
G25 KT POSSIBLE. FOG POSSIBLE WITH WARMER MORE HUMID AIRMASS
OVERSPREAD CHILLY NEAR SHORE WATERS. RAIN IN THE MORNING TAPER
OFF WITH SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY AND EVENING.
FRI NIGHT...FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE EVENING WITH SW WINDS BECOMING
WNW. VSBY IMPROVES WITH THE WIND SHIFT.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. CHOPPY SEAS ON SATURDAY
WILL DIMINISH BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.
MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS BY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY.
TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CAA WILL PUSH IN BEHIND THE FRONT
ALLOWING FOR NW WINDS TO GUST BETWEEN 20-25 KTS. MAY NEED NEAR SHORE
SCA.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-250-
251-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
140 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH A WARM
FRONT APPROACHING THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHWEST
OF THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING IN
SOUTHEAST CANADA. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS FRIDAY
EVENING. A SECONDARY WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SATURDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK
AFTER WHICH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR THIS UPDATE HAVE CUT BACK SIGNIFICANTLY ON CHANCES OF RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. COOL/DRY AIR DAMMING WEST EXTENDING SW FROM STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WITH THE OKX 12Z SOUNDING
VERY DRY BELOW 900 MB...AND LOW LEVELS FCST TO REMAIN SO THROUGH
MUCH OF TODAY AS THE DAMMING REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS DAMMING SHOULD
SHUNT MOST OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING WEAK LOW E
OF THE VA CAPE...AND WEAKEN SHOWERS MOVING E FROM THE SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY IN PA. HRRR STILL DOES FCST SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO MAKE
IT INTO AREAS WEST OF NYC THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MORE ISOLD
ACTIVITY FARTHER EAST VIA MOISTURE AND WEAK H7-8 LIFT...SO STILL
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POP THIS AFTERNOON FOR SRN CT AND LONG ISLAND.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL LIKELY RUN 10-15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE
TODAY...LOWER/MID 40S. COMBINED WITH NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH AND
GUSTS TO 30 MPH ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND
DEVELOPING LOW TO OUR SOUTH...IT WILL BE A RAW DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A DEVELOPING CENTRAL US TROUGH AS A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES PHASE...RESULTING IN AN UPSTREAM GRADUAL RISE IN HEIGHTS
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
RESULTANT LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT GRADUALLY
WORKING NORTH TOWARDS THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT LATE THU/THU NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONLY SLOWLY RELENT ITS POSITION ACROSS
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND DRIFT OFFSHORE.
THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF STRATUS...PERIODS OF RAIN
SHOWERS...AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A BRISK
AND CHILLY NE FLOW. WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE
EAST BY THURSDAY MORNING...SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD. THEN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE
THURSDAY AND MORE SO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER APPROACHING WARM FRONT. MOST
WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS AREAS NW AND W OF NYC
WITH SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT. HAVE ASSIGNED POPS BASED ON ABOVE
THINKING.
ALTHOUGH THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT LIQUID PRECIPITATION FOR THE
MOST PART...MODELS ARE INDICATING A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL COLD
LAYER BETWEEN 975-900 MB AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH COULD RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN ACROSS ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 500-750 FT. IF STRENGTH OF COLD LAYER IS CLOSER TO NAM
SOUNDINGS...POTENTIAL FOR A BIT OF SLEET ACROSS INTERIOR TONIGHT.
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORIES FOR THE FREEZING RAIN AT THIS
POINT WITH LIMITED COVERAGE...POTENTIAL FOR SLEET...AND MARGINALLY
COLD CONDITIONS.
HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY WILL LIKELY RUN 10-15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE
ONCE AGAIN (LOWER TO MID 40S)...WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE RAW
CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY NE WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERALL IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE JET STREAM WILL BE
NORTH OF THE REGION...MOVING INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE RISING BACK NORTH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
IN THE MID LEVELS...THE LONGWAVE RIDGE MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS AN EMBEDDED SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE WITH A STREAK OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION FRIDAY
WHICH WILL HELP ENHANCE LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AREAS WHICH HAVE GREATER MAX TEMPS. A LARGER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES SATURDAY AND MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY
WITH A LONGWAVE RIDGE SETTLING IN THEREAFTER.
AT THE SURFACE...THE APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A
PARENT LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP A
MILD AIR MASS IN PLACE. WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION INCREASE
GOING INTO FRIDAY ONCE THE WARM FRONT IS NORTH OF THE REGION.
A PRETTY STEEP INVERSION WILL BE SET UP AROUND 925MB WHERE TEMPS
COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 19 DEGREES CELSIUS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
GROUND TEMPS AND HOW MUCH OF THE HIGHER TEMPS ABOVE MIX DOWN. THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE AND APPROACH OF A WARM
FRONT SUGGEST AN ADVECTION FOG SETUP. INDICATED PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THEN AREAS OF FOG FRIDAY
ON THE WATERS WHICH WILL PROBABLY TAKE SOME TIME TO DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE DAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO INDICATE EXPLICITLY IN
FORECAST...BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG.
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...MODELS HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG WARM FRONT BUT ENOUGH OF SIGNAL SUGGESTS
SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE WILL BE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THEN
A LULL IN ACTIVITY WITH THE AREA BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BEFORE LIKELY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS FRIDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
WEST STARTING TO MOVE EAST. HOWEVER...IT WILL NOT BE THAT PROMINENT
INITIALLY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A SECONDARY WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVE ACROSS SATURDAY. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY ARE ANTICIPATED
BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF FRONT
AND SHORTWAVE...PROBABLY ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WHERE BETTER
DYNAMICS ARE CONVEYED.
DRY WEATHER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING OVER.
OVERALL...TEMPS LOOK TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH...WITH WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT.
GENERALLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS THEN FALL TO MVFR THIS
EVENING...AND POSSIBLY IFR OVERNIGHT. CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
START OFF AROUND 3500-4500FT...FALLING TO AROUND 1000 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN FROM THE EAST TO NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 KT
WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20 KT RANGE. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AFTER 00Z AND SPEEDS WILL FALL TO 10 KT OR LESS.
CIGS DO NOT IMPROVE MUCH DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO CHANGES IN
CEILING HEIGHTS. TIMING OF WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY
+/- 1-2 HOURS.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO CHANGES IN
CEILING HEIGHTS. TIMING OF WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY
+/- 1-2 HOURS.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO CHANGES IN
CEILING HEIGHTS. TIMING OF WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY
+/- 1-2 HOURS.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO CHANGES IN
CEILING HEIGHTS. TIMING OF WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY
+/- 1-2 HOURS.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO CHANGES IN
CEILING HEIGHTS. TIMING OF WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY
+/- 1-2 HOURS.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO CHANGES IN
CEILING HEIGHTS. TIMING OF WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY
+/- 1-2 HOURS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY MORNING...MVFR DURING THE DAY...THEN IFR AT
NIGHT IN PERIODS OF -RA/DZ. LLWS POSSIBLE S/E TERMINALS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
.FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER IN SHRA AND SLIGHT CHANCE
TSTMS INTO FRIDAY EVENING...THEN BECOMING VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT
POSSIBLE FROM MID FRIDAY EVENING ON.
.SATURDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS.
.SUN-MON...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW
ENGLAND AND A WEAK LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MARGINAL GALE CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
AND SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS THIS
MORNING...AND CONTINUING INTO THIS EVENING.
A GRADUAL SLACKENING OF THE GRADIENT EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO
THU AS SURFACE WAVE DISSIPATES AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FURTHER
OFFSHORE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW GALE CONDITIONS TO FALL TO SCA ON THE
OCEAN LATE THIS EVENING. SCA WINDS LIKELY CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN
WATERS THRU THU...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS
SEEING SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THU.
OCEAN SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 6 TO 10 FT WITH LONG PERIOD EASTERLY
SWELLS TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AND LIKELY SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON THU.
SCA CONDITIONS FORECAST ON THE OCEAN MUCH OF THE PERIOD THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR ALL WATERS
SATURDAY. SUB SCA CONDITIONS FORECAST OVERALL FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL OF 1/10 TO 2/10 INCH EXPECTED THROUGH THU. RAINFALL OF
AROUND 1/2 INCH LIKELY THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS NOT EXPECTED.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NE WINDS OF 15-25 KT TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL HAVE WATER LEVELS
APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING LEVELS ACROSS THE MOST VULNERABLE AREAS
OF THE WESTERN GREAT SOUTH BAY DURING THE LATE TONIGHT HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS
ARE TOUCHED IN THESE AREAS.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ338.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
340-345.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/NV
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GOODMAN/JM/NV
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JM/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1051 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH A WARM
FRONT APPROACHING THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHWEST
OF THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING IN
SOUTHEAST CANADA. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS FRIDAY
EVENING. A SECONDARY WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SATURDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK
AFTER WHICH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR THIS UPDATE HAVE CUT BACK SIGNIFICANTLY ON CHANCES OF RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. COOL/DRY AIR DAMMING WEST EXTENDING SW FROM STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WITH THE OKX 12Z SOUNDING
VERY DRY BELOW 900 MB...AND LOW LEVELS FCST TO REMAIN SO THROUGH
MUCH OF TODAY AS THE DAMMING REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS DAMMING SHOULD
SHUNT MOST OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING WEAK LOW E
OF THE VA CAPE...AND WEAKEN SHOWERS MOVING E FROM THE SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY IN PA. HRRR STILL DOES FCST SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO MAKE
IT INTO AREAS WEST OF NYC THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MORE ISOLD
ACTIVITY FARTHER EAST VIA MOISTURE AND WEAK H7-8 LIFT...SO STILL
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POP THIS AFTERNOON FOR SRN CT AND LONG ISLAND.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL LIKELY RUN 10-15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE
TODAY...LOWER/MID 40S. COMBINED WITH NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH AND
GUSTS TO 30 MPH ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND
DEVELOPING LOW TO OUR SOUTH...IT WILL BE A RAW DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A DEVELOPING CENTRAL US TROUGH AS A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES PHASE...RESULTING IN AN UPSTREAM GRADUAL RISE IN HEIGHTS
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
RESULTANT LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT GRADUALLY
WORKING NORTH TOWARDS THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT LATE THU/THU NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONLY SLOWLY RELENT ITS POSITION ACROSS
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND DRIFT OFFSHORE.
THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF STRATUS...PERIODS OF RAIN
SHOWERS...AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A BRISK
AND CHILLY NE FLOW. WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE
EAST BY THURSDAY MORNING...SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD. THEN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE
THURSDAY AND MORE SO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER APPROACHING WARM FRONT. MOST
WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS AREAS NW AND W OF NYC
WITH SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT. HAVE ASSIGNED POPS BASED ON ABOVE
THINKING.
ALTHOUGH THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT LIQUID PRECIPITATION FOR THE
MOST PART...MODELS ARE INDICATING A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL COLD
LAYER BETWEEN 975-900 MB AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH COULD RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN ACROSS ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 500-750 FT. IF STRENGTH OF COLD LAYER IS CLOSER TO NAM
SOUNDINGS...POTENTIAL FOR A BIT OF SLEET ACROSS INTERIOR TONIGHT.
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORIES FOR THE FREEZING RAIN AT THIS
POINT WITH LIMITED COVERAGE...POTENTIAL FOR SLEET...AND MARGINALLY
COLD CONDITIONS.
HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY WILL LIKELY RUN 10-15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE
ONCE AGAIN (LOWER TO MID 40S)...WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE RAW
CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY NE WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERALL IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE JET STREAM WILL BE
NORTH OF THE REGION...MOVING INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE RISING BACK NORTH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
IN THE MID LEVELS...THE LONGWAVE RIDGE MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS AN EMBEDDED SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE WITH A STREAK OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION FRIDAY
WHICH WILL HELP ENHANCE LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AREAS WHICH HAVE GREATER MAX TEMPS. A LARGER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES SATURDAY AND MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY
WITH A LONGWAVE RIDGE SETTLING IN THEREAFTER.
AT THE SURFACE...THE APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A
PARENT LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP A
MILD AIR MASS IN PLACE. WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION INCREASE
GOING INTO FRIDAY ONCE THE WARM FRONT IS NORTH OF THE REGION.
A PRETTY STEEP INVERSION WILL BE SET UP AROUND 925MB WHERE TEMPS
COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 19 DEGREES CELSIUS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
GROUND TEMPS AND HOW MUCH OF THE HIGHER TEMPS ABOVE MIX DOWN. THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE AND APPROACH OF A WARM
FRONT SUGGEST AN ADVECTION FOG SETUP. INDICATED PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THEN AREAS OF FOG FRIDAY
ON THE WATERS WHICH WILL PROBABLY TAKE SOME TIME TO DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE DAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO INDICATE EXPLICITLY IN
FORECAST...BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG.
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...MODELS HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG WARM FRONT BUT ENOUGH OF SIGNAL SUGGESTS
SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE WILL BE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THEN
A LULL IN ACTIVITY WITH THE AREA BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BEFORE LIKELY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS FRIDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
WEST STARTING TO MOVE EAST. HOWEVER...IT WILL NOT BE THAT PROMINENT
INITIALLY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A SECONDARY WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVE ACROSS SATURDAY. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY ARE ANTICIPATED
BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF FRONT
AND SHORTWAVE...PROBABLY ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WHERE BETTER
DYNAMICS ARE CONVEYED.
DRY WEATHER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING OVER.
OVERALL...TEMPS LOOK TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH...WITH WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT.
VFR...WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY BETWEEN 3500-6000FT TODAY. CEILINGS
DECREASE TO MVFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...THEN TO
IFR OVERNIGHT.
NE-ENE WINDS 10-15KT AT CITY/CT/LONG ISLAND TERMINALS...SLIGHTLY
LESS AT THE TERMINALS NORTH NYC. WINDS HAVE BECOME A BIT GUSTY
WITH SPEEDS INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. WINDS BEGIN TO
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AT MOST TERMINALS...EXCEPTION IS COASTAL
CT...WHERE WINDS INCREASE THIS EVENING...WITH GUSTS TO 25-30KT.
PEAK GUSTS COULD BE UP TO 5 TO MAYBE 10 KT HIGHER THAN WHAT IS IN
THE TAFS.
WINDS THEN DIMINISH FROM MID-LATE EVENING ON...FAIRLY QUICKLY
LOSING THEIR GUSTINESS.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO CHANGES IN
CEILINGS. TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED...DIRECTION AND
ON/OFFSET OF GUSTS COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO CHANGES IN
CEILINGS. TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED...DIRECTION AND
ON/OFFSET OF GUSTS COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO CHANGES IN
CEILINGS. TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED...DIRECTION AND
ON/OFFSET OF GUSTS COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO CHANGES IN
CEILINGS. TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED...DIRECTION AND
ON/OFFSET OF GUSTS COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO CHANGES IN
CEILINGS. TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED...DIRECTION AND
ON/OFFSET OF GUSTS COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO CHANGES IN
CEILINGS. TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED...DIRECTION AND
ON/OFFSET OF GUSTS COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY MORNING...MVFR TO VFR AT DAY...THEN MVFR TO IFR
AT NIGHT IN PERIODS -RA/DZ. E-NE WINDS G15-20KT THURSDAY. LLWS
POSSIBLE S/E TERMINALS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
.FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER IN SHRA AND SLIGHT CHANCE
TSTMS INTO FRIDAY EVENING...THEN BECOMING VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT
POSSIBLE FROM MID FRIDAY EVENING ON.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW
ENGLAND AND A WEAK LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MARGINAL GALE CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
AND SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS THIS
MORNING...AND CONTINUING INTO THIS EVENING.
A GRADUAL SLACKENING OF THE GRADIENT EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO
THU AS SURFACE WAVE DISSIPATES AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FURTHER
OFFSHORE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW GALE CONDITIONS TO FALL TO SCA ON THE
OCEAN LATE THIS EVENING. SCA WINDS LIKELY CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN
WATERS THRU THU...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS
SEEING SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THU.
OCEAN SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 6 TO 10 FT WITH LONG PERIOD EASTERLY
SWELLS TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AND LIKELY SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON THU.
SCA CONDITIONS FORECAST ON THE OCEAN MUCH OF THE PERIOD THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR ALL WATERS
SATURDAY. SUB SCA CONDITIONS FORECAST OVERALL FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL OF 1/10 TO 2/10 INCH EXPECTED THROUGH THU. RAINFALL OF
AROUND 1/2 INCH LIKELY THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS NOT EXPECTED.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NE WINDS OF 15-25 KT TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL HAVE WATER LEVELS
APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING LEVELS ACROSS THE MOST VULNERABLE AREAS
OF THE WESTERN GREAT SOUTH BAY DURING THE LATE TONIGHT HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS
ARE TOUCHED IN THESE AREAS.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ338.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
340-345.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/NV
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...BC/MALOIT
MARINE...GOODMAN/JM/NV
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JM/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
1046 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THEN STALL
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH THROUGH THE
AREA AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE THIS MORNING...SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE
OVERALL SETUP CONTINUES TO LOOK A LOT LIKE SUMMER. ALOFT...THE
REGION IS WITHIN THE BROAD RIDGE AXIS AND RELATIVELY WEAK WESTERLY
FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS WITH A
RATHER BENIGN PATTERN. WITHIN THE BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...THE MODELS SHOW A CLEAR AREA OF NVA THAT CURRENTLY SITS
ACROSS MUCH OF GEORGIA AND EASTERN ALABAMA. THIS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
EASTWARD TODAY...AND SHOULD HELP TO KEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AT
A MINIMUM FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. FURTHER TO THE
EAST...THERE IS A WEAK VORT MAX ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
NVA...WHICH MAY HELP TO FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS INLAND
PORTIONS OF THE TRI-COUNTY AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. THERE
SHOULD BE A ROBUST AND PROGRESSIVE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LAND TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 80S AND WATER TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 60S. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT FURTHER INLAND AS WELL.
CONCERNING THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...TEMPERATURES REACHING
THE MID/UPPER 80S WILL RESULT IN A MUCH MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. IN FACT...MODIFIED HRRR AND RAP SOUNDINGS GIVE CAPE
VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 2000-2300 J/KG. THE COLUMN DRIES OUT A BIT
TOO AND DCAPES ARE PROGGED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN TO AROUND -6 C/KM AND THERE IS A NICE SEPARATION
BETWEEN THE FREEZING LEVEL AND THE WET BULB ZERO. SO...EVEN THOUGH
COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
COUPLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. IT APPEARS CONVECTIVE
INITIATIONWILL BEGIN AROUND 19Z...AND POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO
CONTAIN THE CHANCES JUST TO THE TRI-COUNTY AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA AREA. WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION IN THE HWO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...EARLY EVENING CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WELL INLAND WITH
THE LOSS OF INSOLATION. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LINGER WITH
LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER-MID 60S. COULD SEE ANOTHER AROUND OF
PATCHY GROUND FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THAT RECEIVES
RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE FOG DOES NOT LOOK SIGNIFICANT
ATTM.
THURSDAY...THE AREA WILL REMAIN ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND UNDER A MID LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE BULK OF PRECIP ACTIVITY
SHOULD SHIFT SLIGHTLY MORE INLAND THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS THE MID LVL
RIDGE EXPANDS OVER THE AREA WELL AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
DIGGING OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
WARM TEMPS...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER MOST LOCATIONS.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOLER ALONG THE COAST GIVEN AN ONSHORE FLOW.
SUFFICIENT HEATING AND MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY BE DRIVEN BY AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE GIVEN THE LACK OF LARGER
SCALE FORCING. EXPECT MOST PRECIP TO DIMINISH WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF
SUNSET. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID 60S. WE COULD SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT/CALM AND DEWPTS
REMAIN IN THE MID 60S.
FRIDAY...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ANTICIPATED WELL AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MAKE WAY TO THE REGION LATE. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO WARM IN
THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...EVEN AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES
FROM THE WEST. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE AS MOISTURE DEEPENS AND MID LVL FORCING
BEGINS TO INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT MAKING WAY
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER REMAINS LOW GIVEN THE TIMING OF FROPA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN SBCAPES APPROACHING 1000-1250 J/KG AND 20-30 KT
LOW/MID LVL WIND FIELDS SHIFTING OVER THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN MILD UNTIL FROPA...IN THE MID 60S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS
SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY WITH AT
LEAST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS AS FROPA OCCURS. DRYER
AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTH. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD PEAK NEAR 80 FOR
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT WILL LIKELY BE ON A COOLING
TREND BY MID AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SFC WINDS SHIFT TO
NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT. BY SATURDAY EVENING...MOST PRECIP
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...WHERE THE
FRONT CONTINUES A SOUTHWARD SHIFT BEFORE STALLING WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAKENED/STALLED FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY...WHILE A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER...WITH OVERALL HIGHS IN THE MID 70S OVER
MOST LOCATIONS. A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RETURN TO MOST AREAS ON MONDAY AS
THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WELL AHEAD OF A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD THEN RETURN INTO THE 80S THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE AREA REMAINS SITUATED ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND STRONG RIDGING ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR TSTMS WILL REMAIN WEST
OF THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS.
FLIGHT RESTRICTION CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER BOTH TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY WIND REGIME WILL PERSIST. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH LATE WEEK ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE. IN GENERAL...A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW
15 KTS OUTSIDE DAILY SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. BRIEF SURGES AND
SLIGHT CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION SHOULD OCCUR NEAR AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. SEAS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 4 FT. WINDS/SEAS
SHOULD THEN INCREASE/BUILD THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY...THEN SHIFTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG DURING FROPA FRIDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH/NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT
STALLS SOUTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
STALLED FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
MONDAY.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...ST
MARINE...ST/DPB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
648 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THEN STALL
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH THROUGH THE
AREA AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THE SUNRISE UPDATE. A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ADDRESS AREAS OF FOG IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
THE SURFACE AND UPPER AIR SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS VERY REMINISCENT OF
SUMMER WITH MEAN 500 HPA RIDING IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
WITH THE AREA POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN FLANKS OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING INSOLATION THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY YIELD A MODEST CUMULUS FIELD AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING
SEA BREEZE.
THERE ARE NO APPARENT LOW-LEVEL TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION TODAY
EXCEPT THE RESULTANT SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION...WHICH IN ITSELF
DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY STRONG...BUT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS ARE LIKELY
LURKING ACROSS INLAND AREAS BASED ON EARLIER REFLECTIVITY DATA.
THE 00Z MODELS ARE NOT OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING PEAK HEATING...WHICH SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH
WEAK DNVA NOTED IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING OFFSHORE
THIS MORNING. DESPITE WEAK SUBSIDENCE...MODIFIED RAP SOUNDINGS DO
SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES
RISE WELL INTO THE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE LOWER-MID
60S. SUSPECT ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL INITIATE EITHER ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE ITSELF OR MORE LIKELY ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE OR RESIDUAL
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW OVER INLAND AREAS BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON WITH
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS DEVELOPING ALONG MESOSCALE BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS...MAINLY INLAND AHEAD OF THE SEA BREEZE. POPS OF 20-30
PERCENT WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR LAND AREAS TODAY AND WITH TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHEST GRIDDED POPS BLENDED HEAVILY TOWARDS
THE LATEST 4KM NSSL WRF. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S
AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.
AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE TSTM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITHIN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT (SBCAPE 2600 J/KG...LIFTED INDEX
-6C...SHOWALTER INDEX -2C...HCAPE ~900 J/KG WITH DCAPE 1200 J/KG
PER MODIFIED KOGB RAP SOUNDING)...ESPECIALLY WHERE UPDRAFTS BECOME
ENHANCED ALONG MESOSCALE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. WBZ HEIGHTS REMAIN
FAIRLY LOW FOR THE TIME YEAR AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN 20-25 KT...WHICH IS JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME
LOOSELY ORGANIZED MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS. WILL HIGHLIGHT ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...EARLY EVENING CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WELL INLAND WITH
THE LOSS OF INSOLATION. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LINGER WITH
LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER-MID 60S. COULD SEE ANOTHER AROUND OF
PATCHY GROUND FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THAT RECEIVES
RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE FOG DOES NOT LOOK SIGNIFICANT
ATTM.
THURSDAY...THE AREA WILL REMAIN ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND UNDER A MID LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE BULK OF PRECIP ACTIVITY
SHOULD SHIFT SLIGHTLY MORE INLAND THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS THE MID LVL
RIDGE EXPANDS OVER THE AREA WELL AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
DIGGING OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
WARM TEMPS...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER MOST LOCATIONS.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOLER ALONG THE COAST GIVEN AN ONSHORE FLOW.
SUFFICIENT HEATING AND MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY BE DRIVEN BY AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE GIVEN THE LACK OF LARGER
SCALE FORCING. EXPECT MOST PRECIP TO DIMINISH WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF
SUNSET. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID 60S. WE COULD SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT/CALM AND DEWPTS
REMAIN IN THE MID 60S.
FRIDAY...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ANTICIPATED WELL AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MAKE WAY TO THE REGION LATE. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO WARM IN
THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...EVEN AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES
FROM THE WEST. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE AS MOISTURE DEEPENS AND MID LVL FORCING
BEGINS TO INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT MAKING WAY
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER REMAINS LOW GIVEN THE TIMING OF FROPA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN SBCAPES APPROACHING 1000-1250 J/KG AND 20-30 KT
LOW/MID LVL WIND FIELDS SHIFTING OVER THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN MILD UNTIL FROPA...IN THE MID 60S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS
SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY WITH AT
LEAST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS AS FROPA OCCURS. DRYER
AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTH. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD PEAK NEAR 80 FOR
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT WILL LIKELY BE ON A COOLING
TREND BY MID AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SFC WINDS SHIFT TO
NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT. BY SATURDAY EVENING...MOST PRECIP
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...WHERE THE
FRONT CONTINUES A SOUTHWARD SHIFT BEFORE STALLING WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAKENED/STALLED FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY...WHILE A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER...WITH OVERALL HIGHS IN THE MID 70S OVER
MOST LOCATIONS. A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RETURN TO MOST AREAS ON MONDAY AS
THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WELL AHEAD OF A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD THEN RETURN INTO THE 80S THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE AREA REMAINS SITUATED ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND STRONG RIDGING ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR. SHALLOW FOG AT KSAV WILL LINGER FOR ANOTHER HOUR BEFORE
LIFTING. THIS MAY PRODUCE VARYING VSBYS...BUT THE FOG LAYER LOOKS
RATHER THIN PER WEBCAMS. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
TSTMS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS.
FLIGHT RESTRICTION CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER BOTH TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY WIND REGIME WILL PERSIST. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH LATE WEEK ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE. IN GENERAL...A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW
15 KTS OUTSIDE DAILY SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. BRIEF SURGES AND
SLIGHT CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION SHOULD OCCUR NEAR AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. SEAS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 4 FT. WINDS/SEAS
SHOULD THEN INCREASE/BUILD THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY...THEN SHIFTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG DURING FROPA FRIDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH/NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT
STALLS SOUTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
STALLED FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
MONDAY.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST/DPB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
416 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THEN STALL
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH THROUGH THE
AREA AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THROUGH SUNRISE...THE REMNANTS OF A SEVERE QLCS...WHICH MOVED
THROUGH THE SOUTH CAROLINA MIDLANDS YESTERDAY EVENING...WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE ACROSS BERKELEY AND UPPER CHARLESTON COUNTIES
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW GENERATED BY THE
QLCS CAN BE SEEN ON KCLX RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA DROPPING SLOWLY
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH 5 AM...MAINLY ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-
COUNTY AREA EVEN AS THE PARENT CONVECTIVE STEADILY DIES OUT.
A RISK FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG REMAINS...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING A BIT HIGHER. KCLX VAD
WIND PROFILE DATA SUGGEST MECHANICAL MIXING IS LIKELY OCCURRING
ATOP THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION WITH 1000 FT WINDS RUNNING ABOUT 30
KT. THIS WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS FROM BECOMING
TOO WIDESPREAD OR DENSE. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT PATCHY FOG
THROUGH 12Z.
TODAY...THE SURFACE AND UPPER AIR SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS VERY
REMINISCENT OF SUMMER WITH MEAN 500 HPA RIDING IN PLACE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH THE AREA POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN
FLANKS OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING INSOLATION THROUGH
THE DAY...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY YIELD A MODEST CUMULUS FIELD AHEAD
OF THE DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE.
THERE ARE NO APPARENT LOW-LEVEL TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION TODAY
EXCEPT THE RESULTANT SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION...WHICH IN ITSELF
DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY STRONG...BUT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS ARE LIKELY
LURKING ACROSS INLAND AREAS BASED ON EARLIER REFLECTIVITY DATA.
THE 00Z MODELS ARE NOT OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING PEAK HEATING...WHICH SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH
WEAK DNVA NOTED IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING OFFSHORE
THIS MORNING. DESPITE WEAK SUBSIDENCE...MODIFIED RAP SOUNDINGS DO
SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES
RISE WELL INTO THE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE LOWER-MID
60S. SUSPECT ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL INITIATE EITHER ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE ITSELF OR MORE LIKELY ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE OR RESIDUAL
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW OVER INLAND AREAS BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON WITH
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS DEVELOPING ALONG MESOSCALE BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS...MAINLY INLAND AHEAD OF THE SEA BREEZE. POPS OF 20-30
PERCENT WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR LAND AREAS TODAY AND WITH TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHEST GRIDDED POPS BLENDED HEAVILY TOWARDS
THE LATEST 4KM NSSL WRF. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S
AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.
AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE TSTM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITHIN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT (SBCAPE 2600 J/KG...LIFTED INDEX
-6C...SHOWALTER INDEX -2C...HCAPE ~900 J/KG WITH DCAPE 1200 J/KG
PER MODIFIED KOGB RAP SOUNDING)...ESPECIALLY WHERE UPDRAFTS BECOME
ENHANCED ALONG MESOSCALE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. WBZ HEIGHTS REMAIN
FAIRLY LOW FOR THE TIME YEAR AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN 20-25 KT...WHICH IS JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME
LOOSELY ORGANIZED MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS. WILL HIGHLIGHT ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...EARLY EVENING CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WELL INLAND WITH
THE LOSS OF INSOLATION. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LINGER WITH
LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER-MID 60S. COULD SEE ANOTHER AROUND OF
PATCHY GROUND FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THAT RECEIVES
RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE FOG DOES NOT LOOK SIGNIFICANT
ATTM.
THURSDAY...THE AREA WILL REMAIN ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND UNDER A MID LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE BULK OF PRECIP ACTIVITY
SHOULD SHIFT SLIGHTLY MORE INLAND THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS THE MID LVL
RIDGE EXPANDS OVER THE AREA WELL AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
DIGGING OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
WARM TEMPS...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER MOST LOCATIONS.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOLER ALONG THE COAST GIVEN AN ONSHORE FLOW.
SUFFICIENT HEATING AND MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY BE DRIVEN BY AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE GIVEN THE LACK OF LARGER
SCALE FORCING. EXPECT MOST PRECIP TO DIMINISH WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF
SUNSET. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID 60S. WE COULD SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT/CALM AND DEWPTS
REMAIN IN THE MID 60S.
FRIDAY...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ANTICIPATED WELL AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MAKE WAY TO THE REGION LATE. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO WARM IN
THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...EVEN AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES
FROM THE WEST. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE AS MOISTURE DEEPENS AND MID LVL FORCING
BEGINS TO INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT MAKING WAY
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER REMAINS LOW GIVEN THE TIMING OF FROPA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN SBCAPES APPROACHING 1000-1250 J/KG AND 20-30 KT
LOW/MID LVL WIND FIELDS SHIFTING OVER THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN MILD UNTIL FROPA...IN THE MID 60S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS
SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY WITH AT
LEAST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS AS FROPA OCCURS. DRYER
AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTH. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD PEAK NEAR 80 FOR
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT WILL LIKELY BE ON A COOLING
TREND BY MID AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SFC WINDS SHIFT TO
NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT. BY SATURDAY EVENING...MOST PRECIP
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...WHERE THE
FRONT CONTINUES A SOUTHWARD SHIFT BEFORE STALLING WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAKENED/STALLED FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY...WHILE A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER...WITH OVERALL HIGHS IN THE MID 70S OVER
MOST LOCATIONS. A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RETURN TO MOST AREAS ON MONDAY AS
THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WELL AHEAD OF A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD THEN RETURN INTO THE 80S THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE AREA REMAINS SITUATED ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND STRONG RIDGING ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KCHS...TSTMS EAST OF KOGB ARE POISED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE KCHS
TERMINAL...BUT WATCHING FOR POSSIBLE REDEVELOPING ALONG THE
SOUTHWARD FLANKING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT IS APPROACHING
KMKS-KDYB. OTHERWISE VFR. SMALL CHANCE FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG TO
IMPACT THE TERMINAL RIGHT AT SUNRISE...BUT IMPACTS LOOK MINIMAL AT
BEST. SEA BREEZE WILL PASS ROUGHLY 18Z WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
ELEVATED WINDS. BEST TSTM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN WEST
OF THE TERMINAL.
KSAV...WATCHING FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. DEWPOINTS REMAIN ELEVATED...BUT THERE MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH MIXING ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG.
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS BACK OFF CONSIDERABLY ON THE FOG POTENTIAL
AND THE 06Z TAF WILL REFLECT THIS. WILL HIGHLIGHT 4SM MIFG SCT004
BEGINNING AT 09-13Z WITH A TEMPO GROUP JUST BEFORE SUNRISE OF 2SM
MIFG. WILL NOT MENTION PREVAILING IFR ATTM. OTHERWISE VFR. SEA
BREEZE WILL PASS THE TERMINAL ROUGHLY 19Z WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
ELEVATED WINDS. BEST TSTMS CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN WEST
OF THE TERMINAL.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS.
FLIGHT RESTRICTION CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER BOTH TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY WIND REGIME WILL PERSIST. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH LATE WEEK ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE. IN GENERAL...A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW
15 KTS OUTSIDE DAILY SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. BRIEF SURGES AND
SLIGHT CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION SHOULD OCCUR NEAR AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. SEAS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 4 FT. WINDS/SEAS
SHOULD THEN INCREASE/BUILD THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY...THEN SHIFTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG DURING FROPA FRIDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH/NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT
STALLS SOUTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
STALLED FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
MONDAY.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST/DPB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
1222 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
COULD APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MESOSCALE UPDATE...QLCS CONTINUE TO MARCH EAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH RECENT KCLX RADAR TRENDS SUGGESTING SOME SOUTHERN DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE EMERGING OUTFLOW. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS POISED TO
IMPACT THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA...ESPECIALLY BERKELEY
COUNTY...OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY
BY RAISING GRIDDED POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR NORTHERN
BERKELEY. 08/06Z RAP SOUNDING AT SAINT STEPHEN WAS NOT OVERLY
UNSTABLE...BUT THE APPROACHING QLCS APPEARS TO HAVE A WELL-
DEFINED COLD POOL THAT IS HELPING TO DRIVE THE STORMS EAST AND
SOUTHEAST. SO AN ISOLATED SEVERE TSTM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE
STORMS DO APPEAR TO HAVE GUSTED OUT...OR AT LEAST IN THE PROCESS
OF GUSTING OUT...SO ITS UNCLEAR IF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REACH THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE ALMOST SUMMERLIKE AS THE LOW LEVELS
ARE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM BERMUDA ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE SETS
UP SHOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST. 925 MB TEMPS OF NEAR 20C OVER THE
INTERIOR EACH DAY WILL MIX DOWN SO MAX TEMPS WILL REACH WELL INTO
THE 80S...WITH THE USUAL 10 OR MORE DEGREES COOLER AT THE BEACHES
DUE TO AFTERNOON ONSHORE FLOW. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES INLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE LACK OF A SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
MECHANISM...ALONG WITH MIDDLING LAPSE RATES FROM 700-500
MB...SUGGEST THE ACTIVITY WILL ONLY SCATTERED IN NATURE. AFTER ANY
INLAND EVENING CONVECTION DIES OFF...TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP DOWN TO
THE 60S.
I THINK THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND DEWPOINTS REACH
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE LEVELS.
ON FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
DAY. THE CWA SHOULD STAY ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT DURING THE
DAY...BUT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP MAX TEMPS A COUPLE
OF DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...AS HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO FALL ALOFT AND A MODEST JET NOSES IN FROM THE WEST...THERE
WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. CURRENT
POPS MAY CURRENTLY A LITTLE LOW...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTIONS
ABOUT THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...SO I DID NOT WANT TO JUMP TOO HIGH
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST BEFORE STALLING
OVER OR NEAR THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE AREA. THE STALLED BOUNDARY SHOULD
TAKE ON A MORE EAST/WEST ORIENTATION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHILE A
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO SET UP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...PERHAPS REACHING THE TRI-COUNTY AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE POSITION OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY AND THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON THE THERMAL GRADIENT OVER THE
AREA...WITH TEMPS REACHING THE LOW 70S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO AROUND
80 ON SUNDAY. THE STALLED BOUNDARY SHOULD THEN LIFT NORTH ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER LARGE AND STRONGER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGGING
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN WARM
INTO THE LOWER 80S OVER MOST AREAS BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WITH SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS PROGRESS OF A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
ADVANCING E/SE THROUGH THE MIDLANDS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INTO THE I-26
CORRIDOR...PERHAPS IMPACTING KCHS AFTER 06Z. WILL AMEND FORECASTS
AS NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...VFR THIS EVENING. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN FOG ARE
LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...MOST LIKELY MVFR WITH A
CHANCE FOR IFR OR LOWER AT KCHS AND OCCASIONALLY IFR WITH A CHANCE
FOR LIFR AT KSAV.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FOG COULD AGAIN PRODUCE FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO CONVECTION THURSDAY...WITH
MOST ACTIVITY OCCURRING INLAND OF THE TERMINALS. THE CHANCES
INCREASE A LITTLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH BETTER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
EXPECTED...BUT THE DURATION SHOULD NOT BE LONG.
THE OTHER POTENTIAL PROBLEM IS PATCHY GROUND FOG AT THE TERMINALS.
THIS SEEMS MOST LIKELY THURSDAY MORNING...AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY
MORNING IF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS A LITTLE SLOWER...BUT
CHANCES ARE NOT MUCH BETTER THAN AVERAGE AT THIS POINT.
&&
.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE TO S/SE WINDS
VEERING TO S/SW AT 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2-3 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND
3-4 FT BEYOND WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN 8-10 SECOND EASTERLY SWELL.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH DIRECTION BACKING TO ONSHORE DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. SPEEDS WILL BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 3 FEET OR
LESS...ALTHOUGH THEY MAY APPROACH 4 FEET BEYOND 40 NM NEAR THE GULF
STREAM AT NIGHT.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD THEN INCREASE/BUILD THIS
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND STALLS OVER OR
NEAR THE AREA...BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1023 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...809 PM CDT
LONG TRACK CYCLIC TORNADIC SUPERCELL OVER NORTHERN MCHENRY COUNTY
HAS CROSSED NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACCORDING TO MESONET OBS AND
THE TORNADO THREAT HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED. ANOTHER SUPERCELL IS
QUICKLY ORGANIZING AND INTENSIFYING OVER SOUTHERN MCHENRY COUNTY
AND IS EXHIBITING STRENGTHENING ROTATION ALOFT. HIGH DEWPOINTS NOT
ALLOWING FOR MUCH DIURNAL COOLING SO STORM IS EITHER BOUNDARY
LAYER ROOTED OR DARN CLOSE. GIVEN THE EXTREME LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITH
50KT WINDS LESS THAN 1K FT AGL TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE VERY
CLOSELY MONITORES FOR SOUTHERN MCHENRY STORM.
IZZI
&&
.SHORT TERM...
400 AM CDT
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
DENSE FOG CONTINUES IN COOL/SATURATED AIR MASS WITH NORTHEAST
WINDS OFF THE LAKE THIS MORNING...WILL MAINTAIN DENSE FOG ADVISORY
ALONG THE LAKE AS ISSUED.
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE MIDWEST...IN A REGION OF BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION ATOP NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH STRETCHES
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN IOWA...THEN EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. THESE CLUSTERS OF STORMS WERE
GENERALLY TIED TO INDIVIDUAL MINOR-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
FEATURES...AND ASSOCIATED LOCALIZED ENHANCED MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND ASCENT. TO THE WEST...STRONG UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING ONTO THE
PLAINS EAST OF THE ROCKIES...AND IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE MID-
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COMPACT AND
SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY-TILTED ENERGETIC DISTURBANCE. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS AT THIS HOUR WILL
DEEPEN AND LIFT TO SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN/FAR NORTHWEST IL PER
COMPLIMENTING GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS...WITH THE FRONT LIFTING NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS PATTERN HAS ALL THE
EARMARKS OF BEING A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER PRODUCER ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITH THAT SAID...QUESTIONS REMAIN WITH RESPECT TO EVOLUTION OF
STORMS LATER TODAY...MAINLY DUE TO THE EXPECTATION THAT SEVERAL
CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY DUE TO PERSISTENT WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION AND ASCENT IN REGION OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW. CONVECTION ALLOWING
GUIDANCE (HRRR/NMM/ARW RUNS) DEPICT SEVERAL CLUSTERS DEVELOPING
AND LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING AND MIDDAY
HOURS...AND REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SEEMS TO INDICATE THIS WILL BE
THE TREND AT LEAST THROUGH THIS MORNING. THUS WHILE SYNOPTIC
FEATURES WILL BE STRONG...MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES AND FORCING REMAIN
UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. STILL...STRONG FORCING IN ADVANCE OF COLD
FRONT COUPLED WITH STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH COMPACT WAVE
SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. 00Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WARM SECTOR MLCAPES
AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG...WITH AMPLE DEEP AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR. SPC
NOTES SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO STORM MODE...LINE SEGMENTS
AS OPPOSED TO DISCRETE CELLS...THOUGH SUPERCELLULAR
CHARACTERISTICS ARE LIKELY GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT. DAMAGING WINDS
FROM LINES/LINE SEGMENTS LOOKS TO BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD
THREAT...THOUGH NORTHERN IL/SOUTHERN WI...WHERE WINDS WILL MOST
LIKELY BE BACKED MORE STRONGLY AHEAD OF THE LOW...WILL STILL HAVE
A REAL TORNADO POTENTIAL. STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE UPSCALE INTO
SQUALL-LINE AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE THREAT QUICKLY WINDING DOWN
BEFORE MIDNIGHT AFTER FROPA.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
257 PM CDT
FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
FOLLOWING A PERIOD OF VERY ACTIVE WEATHER...FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...A PERIOD OF RELATIVE CALM WILL
SET UP FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A COOL...DRY HIGH PRESSURE AREA
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO CLOSER TO
SEASONAL HIGHS NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60F UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS THE HIGH WILL BE RIGHT OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...LIGHT WINDS AND A DRY
AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ENHANCED RADIATIVE COOLING OVERNIGHT FOR
LOWS TO DROP BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S SATURDAY MORNING.
WITH THE HIGH BEGINNING TO BUILD OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR WILL
KEEP THE COOLING TREND VERY BRIEF WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK TO
AROUND 60F OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
IMMEDIATE LAKEFRONT...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN COOLER AS A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BETWEEN THE COOL LAKE WATER AND
WARMER LAKE SHOULD ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY ALONG THE LAKE FRONT TOPPING OUT IN THE MIDDLE 50S.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WILL LIKELY PREVENT A LAKE BREEZE FROM
DEVELOPING.
FOR SUNDAY...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE NRN
ROCKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO PHASE WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
LIFTING INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS PHASING SHOULD
RESULT IN AN AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN TO THE
REGION. THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE...IN GENERAL...AGREE ON THE
SCENARIO...BUT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
AND THE DEGREE OF PHASING AND THE RESULTANT STRENGTH OF THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH LEAD TO A RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE
LATTER PORTIONS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. CURRENTLY FEEL
THAT A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
AND THEN SHUTTING OFF BY MONDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF PCPN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...START AND
END TIMES REMAIN UNCERTAIN AS WELL AS THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE PCPN AND WILL LIKELY BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE SPEED OF AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. FOR THE LATTER
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...THERE COULD BE ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AS THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN MAINTAINS A HIGH AMPLITUDE...QUICKLY
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE ACTUALLY SHOWING BETTER
CONSISTENCY FOR THE END OF THE LONGER TERM FORECAST PERIOD THAN
EARLIER...WITH ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CNTRL
PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS TRENDING A BIT STRONGER AND DEVELOPING MORE OF
A NEGATIVE TILT TO THE TROUGH AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THE GFS IS REMARKABLY SIMILAR...BUT ABOUT 24 HOURS SLOWER IN
DEVELOPING THE NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED UPPER LOW.
SHOULD THIS SCENARIO PAN OUT...THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEAK COULD BE RIPE
FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* MVFR CIGS/OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT.
* GUSTY WINDS BCMG SW TO W ARND MIDNIGHT WITH MAX GUSTS AROUND 45
KT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25-27 KT LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. GUSTY W WINDS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 03Z...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO NW INDIANA AND OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. MAIN HAZARDS ARE CONTINUOUS
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH...AND SMALL HAIL. THESE SHOULD
REMAIN EAST OF ALL TERMINALS FROM A PEOTONE TO SOUTH CHICAGO LINE.
MAIN NEAR TERM CONCERN IS GUSTY SW WINDS BEHIND THESE STORMS.
EXPECT A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED WINDS 25-30 KT AND GUSTS TO 45 KT
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...DIMINISHING SOME BUT REMAINING
GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST FRIDAY.
AFTER THESE STORMS CLEAR...EXPECT CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR AND
POSSIBLY IFR. LIFTING IS EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING BUT CONTINUED
GUSTY WINDS.
KMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LOWER CIGS TONIGHT...MEDIUM ON SPECIFIC
HEIGHTS AND LOW ON HOW LONG ANY IFR WILL LAST.
* MEDIUM/HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND GUSTS OVERNIGHT AND
TOMORROW...THOUGH LOWER/MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFIC SPEEDS ON
FRIDAY.
KMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED
00Z...
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS. LAKE BREEZE POSSIBLE.
* SUNDAY...DRY/VFR. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS.
* MONDAY...DRY/VFR. EAST WINDS.
* TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. SOUTH WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. SOUTH WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
315 PM CDT
CONDITIONS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN ARE DETERIORATING RAPIDLY
TODAY...FIRST WITH WAVES OF THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. AS OF 3PM
CDT...THE FRONT HAD MOVED UP TO THE CENTER OF THE LAKE AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
IOWA CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. BY THIS POINT...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REACH ALMOST
TO THE NORTH END OF THE LAKE...BUT WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALLS AND A
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE LAKE AS THE SFC LOW
APPROACHES...WINDS OVER THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE SHOULD INCREASE
TO GALE FORCE FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND THE SOUTH HALF OF THE
LAKE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN INTO THE
EVENING AS WELL. THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE CNTRL
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE LATE THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS QUICKLY SHIFTING
TO WLY-NWLY. A STRONG NORTHERLY GRADIENT BEHIND THE EXITING
LOW...INCREASING COLD ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A COOL HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM DROPPING INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES AS A
RESULT OF THE COMBINATION OF THE EXITING LOW AND APPROACHING
HIGH...SHOULD ALL COMBINE TO BRING SHORT PERIOD OF WEST TO NWLY
GALES TO THE LAKE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE APPROACHING HIGH
SHOULD BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING WINDS OVER THE LAKE TO DROP OFF RELATIVELY
QUICKLY. FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...CONDITIONS OVER
THE LAKE SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO SWEEP ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY...BUT THIS SHOULD BE
A LESS DYNAMIC SYSTEM...AND WINDS SHOULD NOT GET AS STRONG AS WITH
THE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE LAKE AT THE CURRENT TIME.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779 UNTIL 1 PM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
854 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
Vigorous shortwave and jet streak are pushing a cold front rapidly
across IL. They have triggered strong to severe storms with
isolated tornadoes this afternoon/evening. Remaining storms seem
to be evolving into more outflow dominated storms, but will
continue to monitor for any localized rotations the next couple
hours. Storms and cold front are projected to be east of our IL
counties by 11 pm, with strong west-southwest winds in their wake.
Sustained winds behind the front will increase to 20 mph and
gust to 35 mph at times. A brief period of clearing skies may
follow the front for an hour or so, but low clouds will return for
6-8 hours the rest of the night. Clear skies will return from west
to east around sunrise tomorrow, with gusty winds continuing.
Low temps will drop about 20 degrees colder than last night, with
readings in the mid to upper 40s toward sunrise. Likewise, highs
on Friday will be around 15-18F colder than today, but still in
the low 60s.
Updated the weather and PoP forecasts to match expected trends,
with minor adjustments to clouds cover timing. Updated info will
be available by 9 pm.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
19z/2pm surface analysis shows 998mb low centered over southeast
Iowa, with cold front trailing southward into western Missouri.
Line of convection is rapidly developing along the front within the
moderately unstable and uncapped airmass in the warm sector. 0-6km
bulk shear values will be on the increase as the afternoon
progresses as a mid-level short-wave approaches from the west,
resulting in continued convective intensification. HRRR has had a
good handle on the situation throughout the day, with its latest
iteration agreeing closely with prior runs. Based on satellite
timing tools and HRRR guidance, it appears the line of storms will
cross the Mississippi River by 23z/6pm, then will track through the
Illinois River Valley and to the I-55 corridor by about 02z/8pm.
Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat, but large hail and a
few tornadoes will be possible as well. As the storms move further
east, they will likely congeal into a solid line and the tornado
threat will diminish accordingly. Once the front passes, windy and
cooler weather will be on tap overnight with a slow west to east
clearing trend by dawn.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
Morning upper air shows a potential severe event this afternoon and
evening, as main upper level shortwave and vort max over southwest
NE at 12z will be rotating to the east. Low level thermal ridge and
moisture axis extends into MO/IL ahead of the approaching front.
low level jet is particularly strong flowing into MO/western IL and
so ample shear available in warm sector.
HRRR model and NAM a little slower on the movement of the front
through the region, going through this evening. Shear with strong
upper jet and low level southern jet will make severe potential with
severe storms possible on the cold front as it sweeps through.
Deepening surface low to move northeast into eastern IA and then
southern WI.
High pressure in control until weak front moves in and brings
showers on late Sunday and Sunday night. Another chance off showers
Tuesday into Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
Line of storms firing along a cold front will produce heavy rain,
hail and possible tornadoes. Lower chances that any terminal site
will get hit directly by any severe weather, but still possible.
Target window should be 2 hours as the line moves through, so we
continued with 2hr tempos for heavy rain and MVFR vis/cig.
Upstream obs and satellite images show a break in the MVFR cigs
should follow the line, before MVFR clouds return in wrap-around
moisture behind the low pressure system. Will continue MVFR clouds
until 10z at PIA, then advance clearing eastward into Friday
morning.
Strong winds will continue both ahead of the front and behind.
Wind direction will remain SW ahead of the front, with gusts to
30kt, then become west later tonight. Gusts will increase to
25-30kt tomorrow as mid level jet winds continue to be strong.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 1 AM CDT Friday FOR ILZ054>057-061>063-
066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
718 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...536 PM CDT
CONTINUE TO MONITOR COLD FRONT WITH STRONG CONVECTION OCCURRING
NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS HOUR. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO REACH THEIR FULL
POTENTIAL WITH MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BEING ONE OF THE
PRIMARY LIMITING FACTORS. WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH MID EVENING...THOUGH GIVEN TRENDS SO
FAR THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
WITH CIRRUS SHIELD OVERSPREADING THE REGION AND LOWERING SUN
ANGLE...THERE ARE RENEWED CONCERNS REGARDING
INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY AS WE GET CLOSER TO SUNSET THIS EVENING.
EXPECT MODERATE INSTABILITY TO PERSIST THROUGH 00Z THEN FOR A
DIMINISHING TREND OF MLCAPE THEREAFTER.
BY 00Z/7PM CDT...EXPECT THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A HIGHER SEVERE THREAT TO BE
NEAR THE I-39 CORRIDOR...AND ENTERING THE WESTERN SUBURBS OF
CHICAGO CLOSER TO 01Z/8PM CDT. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT REMAINS STRONG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS SUFFICIENT TO
SUSTAIN AT LEAST SOME ORGANIZED/SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE HEART OF
THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH DIMINISHING MLCAPE MAY EVENTUALLY LOWER
THAT THREAT.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.SHORT TERM...
400 AM CDT
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
DENSE FOG CONTINUES IN COOL/SATURATED AIR MASS WITH NORTHEAST
WINDS OFF THE LAKE THIS MORNING...WILL MAINTAIN DENSE FOG ADVISORY
ALONG THE LAKE AS ISSUED.
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE MIDWEST...IN A REGION OF BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION ATOP NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH STRETCHES
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN IOWA...THEN EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. THESE CLUSTERS OF STORMS WERE
GENERALLY TIED TO INDIVIDUAL MINOR-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
FEATURES...AND ASSOCIATED LOCALIZED ENHANCED MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND ASCENT. TO THE WEST...STRONG UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING ONTO THE
PLAINS EAST OF THE ROCKIES...AND IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE MID-
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COMPACT AND
SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY-TILTED ENERGETIC DISTURBANCE. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS AT THIS HOUR WILL
DEEPEN AND LIFT TO SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN/FAR NORTHWEST IL PER
COMPLIMENTING GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS...WITH THE FRONT LIFTING NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS PATTERN HAS ALL THE
EARMARKS OF BEING A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER PRODUCER ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITH THAT SAID...QUESTIONS REMAIN WITH RESPECT TO EVOLUTION OF
STORMS LATER TODAY...MAINLY DUE TO THE EXPECTATION THAT SEVERAL
CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY DUE TO PERSISTENT WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION AND ASCENT IN REGION OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW. CONVECTION ALLOWING
GUIDANCE (HRRR/NMM/ARW RUNS) DEPICT SEVERAL CLUSTERS DEVELOPING
AND LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING AND MIDDAY
HOURS...AND REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SEEMS TO INDICATE THIS WILL BE
THE TREND AT LEAST THROUGH THIS MORNING. THUS WHILE SYNOPTIC
FEATURES WILL BE STRONG...MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES AND FORCING REMAIN
UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. STILL...STRONG FORCING IN ADVANCE OF COLD
FRONT COUPLED WITH STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH COMPACT WAVE
SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. 00Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WARM SECTOR MLCAPES
AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG...WITH AMPLE DEEP AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR. SPC
NOTES SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO STORM MODE...LINE SEGMENTS
AS OPPOSED TO DISCRETE CELLS...THOUGH SUPERCELLULAR
CHARACTERISTICS ARE LIKELY GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT. DAMAGING WINDS
FROM LINES/LINE SEGMENTS LOOKS TO BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD
THREAT...THOUGH NORTHERN IL/SOUTHERN WI...WHERE WINDS WILL MOST
LIKELY BE BACKED MORE STRONGLY AHEAD OF THE LOW...WILL STILL HAVE
A REAL TORNADO POTENTIAL. STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE UPSCALE INTO
SQUALL-LINE AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE THREAT QUICKLY WINDING DOWN
BEFORE MIDNIGHT AFTER FROPA.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
257 PM CDT
FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
FOLLOWING A PERIOD OF VERY ACTIVE WEATHER...FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...A PERIOD OF RELATIVE CALM WILL
SET UP FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A COOL...DRY HIGH PRESSURE AREA
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO CLOSER TO
SEASONAL HIGHS NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60F UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS THE HIGH WILL BE RIGHT OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...LIGHT WINDS AND A DRY
AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ENHANCED RADIATIVE COOLING OVERNIGHT FOR
LOWS TO DROP BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S SATURDAY MORNING.
WITH THE HIGH BEGINNING TO BUILD OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR WILL
KEEP THE COOLING TREND VERY BRIEF WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK TO
AROUND 60F OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
IMMEDIATE LAKEFRONT...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN COOLER AS A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BETWEEN THE COOL LAKE WATER AND
WARMER LAKE SHOULD ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY ALONG THE LAKE FRONT TOPPING OUT IN THE MIDDLE 50S.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WILL LIKELY PREVENT A LAKE BREEZE FROM
DEVELOPING.
FOR SUNDAY...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE NRN
ROCKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO PHASE WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
LIFTING INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS PHASING SHOULD
RESULT IN AN AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN TO THE
REGION. THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE...IN GENERAL...AGREE ON THE
SCENARIO...BUT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
AND THE DEGREE OF PHASING AND THE RESULTANT STRENGTH OF THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH LEAD TO A RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE
LATTER PORTIONS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. CURRENTLY FEEL
THAT A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
AND THEN SHUTTING OFF BY MONDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF PCPN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...START AND
END TIMES REMAIN UNCERTAIN AS WELL AS THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE PCPN AND WILL LIKELY BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE SPEED OF AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. FOR THE LATTER
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...THERE COULD BE ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AS THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN MAINTAINS A HIGH AMPLITUDE...QUICKLY
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE ACTUALLY SHOWING BETTER
CONSISTENCY FOR THE END OF THE LONGER TERM FORECAST PERIOD THAN
EARLIER...WITH ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CNTRL
PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS TRENDING A BIT STRONGER AND DEVELOPING MORE OF
A NEGATIVE TILT TO THE TROUGH AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THE GFS IS REMARKABLY SIMILAR...BUT ABOUT 24 HOURS SLOWER IN
DEVELOPING THE NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED UPPER LOW.
SHOULD THIS SCENARIO PAN OUT...THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEAK COULD BE RIPE
FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTN...WITH THE FINAL ROUND OF
STORMS MOVING THROUGH ARND 2Z-4Z. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS.
* GUSTY SSW WINDS WITH GUSTS ARND 25 KT.
* IFR VSBY EXPECTED WITH TSRA.
* IFR CIGS BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS OVER NIGHT...BECOMING MVFR
* GUSTY WINDS BCMG SW TO W ARND MIDNIGHT WITH MAX GUSTS 30-35 KT.
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS EVENING...WITH A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY...SOME ISOLATED THUNDESTORMS EXIST OUT AHEAD OF THE
MAIN LINE. WHILE THE LINE FARTHER WEST IS NOT COMPLETELY FILLED IN
YET...AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES EASTWARD PROGRESS...EXPECT THIS LINE
TO BECOME FILLED IN...REACHING THE CHICAGOLAND TERMINALS AROUND
145-2Z. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THIS MAIN
LINE. EXPECT HAIL...STRONG WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN WITH THESE
STORMS WHEN THEY DO FILL IN. CONFIDENCE IS STILL MEDIUM ON THE
TIMING AND COVERAGE.
AFTER THESE STORMS CLEAR...EXPECT GUSTY WSW WINDS WITH CIGS
LOWERING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR. LIFTING IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
MORNING BUT CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS.
KMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING FOLLOWED
BY A SEGMENT OR SEMI-BROKEN LINE OF STORMS LATER THIS EVENING.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND TIMING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION BEHIND THE SCATTERED STORMS.
WINDS COULD BE CHAOTIC FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN REDUCED VSBY UNDER STORMS...MEDIUM-LOW
CONFIDENCE IN CIG HEIGHTS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LOWER CIGS TONIGHT...LOW ON SPECIFIC HEIGHTS
AND HOW LONG IFR WILL LAST.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND GUSTS OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW...GUSTS
COULD BE HIGHER.
KMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED
00Z...
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS. LAKE BREEZE POSSIBLE.
* SUNDAY...DRY/VFR. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS.
* MONDAY...DRY/VFR. EAST WINDS.
* TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. SOUTH WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. SOUTH WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
315 PM CDT
CONDITIONS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN ARE DETERIORATING RAPIDLY
TODAY...FIRST WITH WAVES OF THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. AS OF 3PM
CDT...THE FRONT HAD MOVED UP TO THE CENTER OF THE LAKE AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
IOWA CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. BY THIS POINT...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REACH ALMOST
TO THE NORTH END OF THE LAKE...BUT WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALLS AND A
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE LAKE AS THE SFC LOW
APPROACHES...WINDS OVER THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE SHOULD INCREASE
TO GALE FORCE FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND THE SOUTH HALF OF THE
LAKE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN INTO THE
EVENING AS WELL. THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE CNTRL
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE LATE THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS QUICKLY SHIFTING
TO WLY-NWLY. A STRONG NORTHERLY GRADIENT BEHIND THE EXITING
LOW...INCREASING COLD ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A COOL HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM DROPPING INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES AS A
RESULT OF THE COMBINATION OF THE EXITING LOW AND APPROACHING
HIGH...SHOULD ALL COMBINE TO BRING SHORT PERIOD OF WEST TO NWLY
GALES TO THE LAKE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE APPROACHING HIGH
SHOULD BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING WINDS OVER THE LAKE TO DROP OFF RELATIVELY
QUICKLY. FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...CONDITIONS OVER
THE LAKE SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO SWEEP ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY...BUT THIS SHOULD BE
A LESS DYNAMIC SYSTEM...AND WINDS SHOULD NOT GET AS STRONG AS WITH
THE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE LAKE AT THE CURRENT TIME.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779 UNTIL 1 PM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
712 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
19z/2pm surface analysis shows 998mb low centered over southeast
Iowa, with cold front trailing southward into western Missouri.
Line of convection is rapidly developing along the front within the
moderately unstable and uncapped airmass in the warm sector. 0-6km
bulk shear values will be on the increase as the afternoon
progresses as a mid-level short-wave approaches from the west,
resulting in continued convective intensification. HRRR has had a
good handle on the situation throughout the day, with its latest
iteration agreeing closely with prior runs. Based on satellite
timing tools and HRRR guidance, it appears the line of storms will
cross the Mississippi River by 23z/6pm, then will track through the
Illinois River Valley and to the I-55 corridor by about 02z/8pm.
Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat, but large hail and a
few tornadoes will be possible as well. As the storms move further
east, they will likely congeal into a solid line and the tornado
threat will diminish accordingly. Once the front passes, windy and
cooler weather will be on tap overnight with a slow west to east
clearing trend by dawn.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
Morning upper air shows a potential severe event this afternoon and
evening, as main upper level shortwave and vort max over southwest
NE at 12z will be rotating to the east. Low level thermal ridge and
moisture axis extends into MO/IL ahead of the approaching front.
low level jet is particularly strong flowing into MO/western IL and
so ample shear available in warm sector.
HRRR model and NAM a little slower on the movement of the front
through the region, going through this evening. Shear with strong
upper jet and low level southern jet will make severe potential with
severe storms possible on the cold front as it sweeps through.
Deepening surface low to move northeast into eastern IA and then
southern WI.
High pressure in control until weak front moves in and brings
showers on late Sunday and Sunday night. Another chance off showers
Tuesday into Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
Line of storms firing along a cold front will produce heavy rain,
hail and possible tornadoes. Lower chances that any terminal site
will get hit directly by any severe weather, but still possible.
Target window should be 2 hours as the line moves through, so we
continued with 2hr tempos for heavy rain and MVFR vis/cig.
Upstream obs and satellite images show a break in the MVFR cigs
should follow the line, before MVFR clouds return in wrap-around
moisture behind the low pressure system. Will continue MVFR clouds
until 10z at PIA, then advance clearing eastward into Friday
morning.
Strong winds will continue both ahead of the front and behind.
Wind direction will remain SW ahead of the front, with gusts to
30kt, then become west later tonight. Gusts will increase to
25-30kt tomorrow as mid level jet winds continue to be strong.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 1 AM CDT Friday FOR ILZ054>057-061>063-
066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
553 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015
.UPDATE...
547 PM CDT
I ADDED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES IN
ILLINOIS AS DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE LAKE SHORES. IT IS
POSSIBLE THIS DENSE FOG COULD DEVELOP FARTHER INLAND THROUGH THE
EVENING. IT IS EVEN POSSIBLE THAT FOG COULD OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
NORTHERN ILLINOIS TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT AND HIGH DEW POINT AIR
BEGINS TO SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE COLDER AIRMASS ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE EXTENT OF INLAND
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FOG...HOWEVER...AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY COULD DIMINISH THE EXTENT OF FOG COVERAGE OVERNIGHT.
SO...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING.
KJB
&&
.SHORT TERM...
322 PM CDT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
QUITE THE CHALLENGING SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBILITIES THROUGHOUT THE TIME AND PROBABLE RAPIDLY SOARING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WHOLE AREA FIRST THING FRIDAY MORNING. THE
MAIN TIME FOR POSSIBLE SURFACE-BASED SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING
WIND AND POSSIBLE TORNADO CONCERNS...CONTINUES TO BE
MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING ON THURSDAY.
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS OF 3
PM...INCLUDING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. A 1011MB
SURFACE LOW REFLECTION IS SEEN IN THE WIND ALONG THIS NEAR
DECATUR/CHAMPAIGN...WITH FESTERING NEAR OR SURFACE BASED STORMS
JUST AHEAD OF THIS NEAR THE I-74 CORRIDOR OCCASIONALLY PULSING
WITH HIGHER CORES. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE LIKELY PRESENCE OF VERY SUBTLE MID-LEVEL IMPULSES ACROSS
IA/IL/NORTHERN MO...ALL AHEAD OF AN INCREASING UPPER JET NOSING
EASTWARD INTO THE OZARK REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THESE PESKY MID-LEVEL FEATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING WITH OVERALL UPPER SUPPORT FOR LIFT GRADUALLY IMPROVING.
ONE PROBLEM FOR RAPIDLY INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS
EVENING IS THAT THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
LOOK TO NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WHICH SEEMS NECESSARY TO TAP THE ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER/VERY STEEP ELEVATED LAPSE RATES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND
STRONGER CONVECTION. ALSO...STORMS ACROSS THE OZARKS INTO MO AND
SW IL MAY LIMIT THE EFFECTIVENESS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO OUR
AREA...AT LEAST AT FIRST THIS EVENING. A FURTHER HINDRANCE TO
CONFIDENCE FOR TONIGHT IS THAT CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS HAVE
REALLY STRUGGLED AND DIVERGED WITH HOW TONIGHT WILL PAN OUT FOR
STORM COVERAGE. HAVE GONE WITH THE THOUGHT LATER THIS EVENING INTO
OVERNIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH HIGHER LIKELIHOOD FOR
STORMS...BUT CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT SCATTERED EVENING ACTIVITY
WITHIN THE BROAD WARM ADVECTIVE ZONE. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
LAPSE RATES AND HIGH LEVELS OF CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH
ZONE...LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MOST PROBABLE
THREAT...WITH ANY WIND THREATS REALLY SOUTH OF I-80...IF NOT EVEN
SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 24.
AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE RESPONSE SHOULD ALLOW THE WARM FRONT TO
CREEP NORTHWARD...AND MAYBE AT A QUICK RATE IF NOT MUCH CONVECTION
IS PRESENT. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN WARM AND QUITE QUICKLY WITH THE
FRONT PASSAGE...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE 70S
THURSDAY...EVEN WITH MORNING STORM ACTIVITY. AROUND 80 DEGREES IS
POSSIBLE JUST GIVEN OBSERVATION TRENDS TO OUR SOUTH TODAY.
THE WARM SECTOR IS LIKELY TO HAVE AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED STORMS
THROUGH THE MORNING AND MAYBE EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES PRESENT. THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME RESULT ON
REGENERATION/RE-INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS...BUT ITS POSSIBLE ANY
FESTERING ELEVATED STORMS ARE ABLE TO ROOT LOWER AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES AND BUOYANCY IMPROVES. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF A
QUICKLY MOVING CLIMATOLOGICALLY COLD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS A WARM
SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY EARLY APRIL DEW POINTS IN THE 60S
CERTAINLY FAVORS ORGANIZED STORM POTENTIAL...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS
WITH SIGNIFICANT SEVERE POTENTIAL...AS FURTHER VERIFIED BY
SEVERAL OF THE TOP MATCHING CIPS ANALOGS /SIMILAR SCENARIOS/.
HOWEVER...SEVERAL ANALOGS SHOW VERY LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER...AS
THE PRESENT INGREDIENTS JUST DID NOT LINE UP PERFECTLY AS CAN
OFTEN BE THE CASE IN MODERATE/STRONG DYNAMIC SITUATIONS. SO
CONFIDENCE REMAINS MINIMAL ON COVERAGE OF HIGHER INTENSITY
STORMS...BUT AT THIS JUNCTURE WOULD BE SURPRISED TO NOT HAVE AT
LEAST AN UPTICK IN LOWER ROOTED STORMS DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING PERIOD MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. WHILE THE NORTHERN CWA MAY HAVE MORE BACKED LOW-LEVEL
FLOW...THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE UNDER A STRONG SSW 50-55 KT LOW-
LEVEL JET WHICH WOULD KEEP SOME THREATS OF SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HAIL WILL
REMAIN THE GREATEST CONCERN...ESPECIALLY WITH THE AFTERNOON
ACTIVITY...BUT SOME ORGANIZED STRONG WINDS OR TORNADOES IN THE
REGION ARE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON STORM MODE/COVERAGE.
STORMS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 9 PM-12 AM THURSDAY EVENING
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WRAPPING IN ON GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL ROLL THROUGH SOUTHERN WI ON FRIDAY. THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD NORTHEAST
IL CLOSER TO THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE MIDWEST FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AND BRING QUIET WEATHER. CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S... COLDEST NEAR
THE WI BORDER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 60S
SATURDAY WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE AREA.
SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY...
SO NO PRECIP IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS NORTHEAST IL DURING THE DAY.
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS SOUNDINGS SHOW MINIMAL INSTABILITY
SO I LEFT OUT THUNDER.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
MODELS ARE SLOWING DOWN THE SPEED OF THE WARM FRONTAL PRECIP INTO
CENTRAL IL ON MONDAY. THUS... CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE DECREASING. BY MONDAY NIGHT... THE WARM FRONT WILL MAKE IT INTO
EITHER NORTHERN IL OR SOUTHERN WI. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND IT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
MRC
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* VFR VSBY THIS AFTERNOON TO LOWER BACK TO IFR TO MVFR AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING WITH FOG
* MVFR TO VFR CIGS LIKELY TO GO BACK TO IFR AFTER SUNSET
* SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE THIS EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AND DIMINISHING DURING MID AND LATE THU
MORNING.
* LIFR VIS/CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...IMPROVING DURING MID/LATE
THURSDAY MORNING AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS AREA.
KMH/EJL
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
CIGS/VIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS DEVELOPING. CIGS/VIS COULD POSSIBLY LOWER BACK TO IFR
OR EVEN LIFR AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW.
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SW HALF OF IL WILL TRACK
ENE AND INITIALLY STAY SOUTH OF CHICAGO AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
MID EVENING. FOCUS SHIFTS TO COMPLEX OF MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER MO AND TRACK NE INTO NE IL LATE THIS EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT AND THEN DIMINISH DURING MID/LATE THU MORNING AS WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF AREA. CONFIDENCE REGARDING
TIMING/LOCATION/COVERAGE IS LOW TO MEDIUM AND OPTED TO CONTINUE
WITH A LONGER DURATION OF VICINITY THUNDER FROM 05-09Z WITH HIGHER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 09-15Z.
GENERALLY NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS EVENING
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHEAST DURING OVERNIGHT...THEN MORE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS AND GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS LATER THURSDAY
MORNING AND THU AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE TERMINALS THU
MORNING. WHEN THIS OCCURS...EXPECT RAPID IMPROVEMENT THROUGH
MVFR CIGS AND LIKELY TO PREVAILING VFR CIGS...OUTSIDE PRECIP...LATER THU
MORNING.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VSBY LOWERING THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET WITH
FOG
* MEDIUM TO HIGH IN WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TS FROM LATE EVENING INTO THU MORNING...LOW TO
MEDIUM FOR TIMING AND COVERAGE.
KMH/EJL
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* THURSDAY NIGHT...STRONG TSRA IN THE EVENING. MVFR POSSIBLE.
STRONG/GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING WEST.
* FRIDAY...DRY/VFR. STRONG/GUSTY WEST WINDS.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTH WINDS. LAKE BREEZE POSSIBLE.
* SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. SOUTH WINDS.
* MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
333 PM... AN INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEADING TO NNE
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THERE IS ALSO A FAVORABLE FETCH FOR HIGH
WAVES IN THE NEARSHORE ZONES. EXPECT THIS TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT.
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BRING GUSTY WINDS TO ALL OF LAKE MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN ARE POSSIBLE.
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN. WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE...
BUT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY BE MET OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
NORTHEAST IL. MRC
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...ILZ006-ILZ014 UNTIL 9 AM THURSDAY.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN UNTIL 10 PM
WEDNESDAY.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY...NEARSHORE GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 10 PM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
PORTION ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
333 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...
322 PM CDT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
QUITE THE CHALLENGING SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBILITIES THROUGHOUT THE TIME AND PROBABLE RAPIDLY SOARING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WHOLE AREA FIRST THING FRIDAY MORNING. THE
MAIN TIME FOR POSSIBLE SURFACE-BASED SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING
WIND AND POSSIBLE TORNADO CONCERNS...CONTINUES TO BE
MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING ON THURSDAY.
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS OF 3
PM...INCLUDING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. A 1011MB
SURFACE LOW REFLECTION IS SEEN IN THE WIND ALONG THIS NEAR
DECATUR/CHAMPAIGN...WITH FESTERING NEAR OR SURFACE BASED STORMS
JUST AHEAD OF THIS NEAR THE I-74 CORRIDOR OCCASIONALLY PULSING
WITH HIGHER CORES. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE LIKELY PRESENCE OF VERY SUBTLE MID-LEVEL IMPULSES ACROSS
IA/IL/NORTHERN MO...ALL AHEAD OF AN INCREASING UPPER JET NOSING
EASTWARD INTO THE OZARK REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THESE PESKY MID-LEVEL FEATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING WITH OVERALL UPPER SUPPORT FOR LIFT GRADUALLY IMPROVING.
ONE PROBLEM FOR RAPIDLY INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS
EVENING IS THAT THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
LOOK TO NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WHICH SEEMS NECESSARY TO TAP THE ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER/VERY STEEP ELEVATED LAPSE RATES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND
STRONGER CONVECTION. ALSO...STORMS ACROSS THE OZARKS INTO MO AND
SW IL MAY LIMIT THE EFFECTIVENESS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO OUR
AREA...AT LEAST AT FIRST THIS EVENING. A FURTHER HINDRANCE TO
CONFIDENCE FOR TONIGHT IS THAT CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS HAVE
REALLY STRUGGLED AND DIVERGED WITH HOW TONIGHT WILL PAN OUT FOR
STORM COVERAGE. HAVE GONE WITH THE THOUGHT LATER THIS EVENING INTO
OVERNIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH HIGHER LIKELIHOOD FOR
STORMS...BUT CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT SCATTERED EVENING ACTIVITY
WITHIN THE BROAD WARM ADVECTIVE ZONE. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
LAPSE RATES AND HIGH LEVELS OF CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH
ZONE...LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MOST PROBABLE
THREAT...WITH ANY WIND THREATS REALLY SOUTH OF I-80...IF NOT EVEN
SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 24.
AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE RESPONSE SHOULD ALLOW THE WARM FRONT TO
CREEP NORTHWARD...AND MAYBE AT A QUICK RATE IF NOT MUCH CONVECTION
IS PRESENT. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN WARM AND QUITE QUICKLY WITH THE
FRONT PASSAGE...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE 70S
THURSDAY...EVEN WITH MORNING STORM ACTIVITY. AROUND 80 DEGREES IS
POSSIBLE JUST GIVEN OBSERVATION TRENDS TO OUR SOUTH TODAY.
THE WARM SECTOR IS LIKELY TO HAVE AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED STORMS
THROUGH THE MORNING AND MAYBE EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES PRESENT. THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME RESULT ON
REGENERATION/RE-INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS...BUT ITS POSSIBLE ANY
FESTERING ELEVATED STORMS ARE ABLE TO ROOT LOWER AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES AND BUOYANCY IMPROVES. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF A
QUICKLY MOVING CLIMATOLOGICALLY COLD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS A WARM
SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY EARLY APRIL DEW POINTS IN THE 60S
CERTAINLY FAVORS ORGANIZED STORM POTENTIAL...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS
WITH SIGNIFICANT SEVERE POTENTIAL...AS FURTHER VERIFIED BY
SEVERAL OF THE TOP MATCHING CIPS ANALOGS /SIMILAR SCENARIOS/.
HOWEVER...SEVERAL ANALOGS SHOW VERY LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER...AS
THE PRESENT INGREDIENTS JUST DID NOT LINE UP PERFECTLY AS CAN
OFTEN BE THE CASE IN MODERATE/STRONG DYNAMIC SITUATIONS. SO
CONFIDENCE REMAINS MINIMAL ON COVERAGE OF HIGHER INTENSITY
STORMS...BUT AT THIS JUNCTURE WOULD BE SURPRISED TO NOT HAVE AT
LEAST AN UPTICK IN LOWER ROOTED STORMS DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING PERIOD MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. WHILE THE NORTHERN CWA MAY HAVE MORE BACKED LOW-LEVEL
FLOW...THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE UNDER A STRONG SSW 50-55 KT LOW-
LEVEL JET WHICH WOULD KEEP SOME THREATS OF SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HAIL WILL
REMAIN THE GREATEST CONCERN...ESPECIALLY WITH THE AFTERNOON
ACTIVITY...BUT SOME ORGANIZED STRONG WINDS OR TORNADOES IN THE
REGION ARE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON STORM MODE/COVERAGE.
STORMS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 9 PM-12 AM THURSDAY EVENING
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WRAPPING IN ON GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL ROLL THROUGH SOUTHERN WI ON FRIDAY. THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD NORTHEAST
IL CLOSER TO THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE MIDWEST FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AND BRING QUIET WEATHER. CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S... COLDEST NEAR
THE WI BORDER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 60S
SATURDAY WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE AREA.
SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY...
SO NO PRECIP IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS NORTHEAST IL DURING THE DAY.
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS SOUNDINGS SHOW MINIMAL INSTABILITY
SO I LEFT OUT THUNDER.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
MODELS ARE SLOWING DOWN THE SPEED OF THE WARM FRONTAL PRECIP INTO
CENTRAL IL ON MONDAY. THUS... CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE DECREASING. BY MONDAY NIGHT... THE WARM FRONT WILL MAKE IT INTO
EITHER NORTHERN IL OR SOUTHERN WI. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND IT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
MRC
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* VFR VSBY THIS AFTERNOON TO LOWER BACK TO IFR TO MVFR AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING WITH FOG
* MVFR TO VFR CIGS LIKELY TO GO BACK TO IFR AFTER SUNSET
* SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE THIS EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AND DIMINISHING DURING MID AND LATE THU
MORNING.
* LIFR VIS/CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...IMPROVING DURING MID/LATE
THURSDAY MORNING AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS AREA.
KMH/EJL
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
CIGS/VIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS DEVELOPING. CIGS/VIS COULD POSSIBLY LOWER BACK TO IFR
OR EVEN LIFR AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW.
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SW HALF OF IL WILL TRACK
ENE AND INITIALLY STAY SOUTH OF CHICAGO AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
MID EVENING. FOCUS SHIFTS TO COMPLEX OF MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER MO AND TRACK NE INTO NE IL LATE THIS EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT AND THEN DIMINISH DURING MID/LATE THU MORNING AS WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF AREA. CONFIDENCE REGARDING
TIMING/LOCATION/COVERAGE IS LOW TO MEDIUM AND OPTED TO CONTINUE
WITH A LONGER DURATION OF VICINITY THUNDER FROM 05-09Z WITH HIGHER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 09-15Z.
GENERALLY NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS EVENING
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHEAST DURING OVERNIGHT...THEN MORE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS AND GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS LATER THURSDAY
MORNING AND THU AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE TERMINALS THU
MORNING. WHEN THIS OCCURS...EXPECT RAPID IMPROVEMENT THROUGH
MVFR CIGS AND LIKELY TO PREVAILING VFR CIGS...OUTSIDE PRECIP...LATER THU
MORNING.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VSBY LOWERING THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET WITH
FOG
* MEDIUM TO HIGH IN WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TS FROM LATE EVENING INTO THU MORNING...LOW TO
MEDIUM FOR TIMING AND COVERAGE.
KMH/EJL
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* THURSDAY NIGHT...STRONG TSRA IN THE EVENING. MVFR POSSIBLE.
STRONG/GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING WEST.
* FRIDAY...DRY/VFR. STRONG/GUSTY WEST WINDS.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTH WINDS. LAKE BREEZE POSSIBLE.
* SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. SOUTH WINDS.
* MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
333 PM... AN INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEADING TO NNE
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THERE IS ALSO A FAVORABLE FETCH FOR HIGH
WAVES IN THE NEARSHORE ZONES. EXPECT THIS TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT.
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BRING GUSTY WINDS TO ALL OF LAKE MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN ARE POSSIBLE.
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN. WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE...
BUT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY BE MET OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
NORTHEAST IL. MRC
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN UNTIL 5 AM
THURSDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
329 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...
322 PM CDT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
QUITE THE CHALLENGING SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBILITIES THROUGHOUT THE TIME AND PROBABLE RAPIDLY SOARING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WHOLE AREA FIRST THING FRIDAY MORNING. THE
MAIN TIME FOR POSSIBLE SURFACE-BASED SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING
WIND AND POSSIBLE TORNADO CONCERNS...CONTINUES TO BE
MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING ON THURSDAY.
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS OF 3
PM...INCLUDING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. A 1011MB
SURFACE LOW REFLECTION IS SEEN IN THE WIND ALONG THIS NEAR
DECATUR/CHAMPAIGN...WITH FESTERING NEAR OR SURFACE BASED STORMS
JUST AHEAD OF THIS NEAR THE I-74 CORRIDOR OCCASIONALLY PULSING
WITH HIGHER CORES. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE LIKELY PRESENCE OF VERY SUBTLE MID-LEVEL IMPULSES ACROSS
IA/IL/NORTHERN MO...ALL AHEAD OF AN INCREASING UPPER JET NOSING
EASTWARD INTO THE OZARK REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THESE PESKY MID-LEVEL FEATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING WITH OVERALL UPPER SUPPORT FOR LIFT GRADUALLY IMPROVING.
ONE PROBLEM FOR RAPIDLY INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS
EVENING IS THAT THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
LOOK TO NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WHICH SEEMS NECESSARY TO TAP THE ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER/VERY STEEP ELEVATED LAPSE RATES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND
STRONGER CONVECTION. ALSO...STORMS ACROSS THE OZARKS INTO MO AND
SW IL MAY LIMIT THE EFFECTIVENESS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO OUR
AREA...AT LEAST AT FIRST THIS EVENING. A FURTHER HINDRANCE TO
CONFIDENCE FOR TONIGHT IS THAT CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS HAVE
REALLY STRUGGLED AND DIVERGED WITH HOW TONIGHT WILL PAN OUT FOR
STORM COVERAGE. HAVE GONE WITH THE THOUGHT LATER THIS EVENING INTO
OVERNIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH HIGHER LIKELIHOOD FOR
STORMS...BUT CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT SCATTERED EVENING ACTIVITY
WITHIN THE BROAD WARM ADVECTIVE ZONE. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
LAPSE RATES AND HIGH LEVELS OF CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH
ZONE...LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MOST PROBABLE
THREAT...WITH ANY WIND THREATS REALLY SOUTH OF I-80...IF NOT EVEN
SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 24.
AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE RESPONSE SHOULD ALLOW THE WARM FRONT TO
CREEP NORTHWARD...AND MAYBE AT A QUICK RATE IF NOT MUCH CONVECTION
IS PRESENT. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN WARM AND QUITE QUICKLY WITH THE
FRONT PASSAGE...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE 70S
THURSDAY...EVEN WITH MORNING STORM ACTIVITY. AROUND 80 DEGREES IS
POSSIBLE JUST GIVEN OBSERVATION TRENDS TO OUR SOUTH TODAY.
THE WARM SECTOR IS LIKELY TO HAVE AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED STORMS
THROUGH THE MORNING AND MAYBE EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES PRESENT. THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME RESULT ON
REGENERATION/RE-INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS...BUT ITS POSSIBLE ANY
FESTERING ELEVATED STORMS ARE ABLE TO ROOT LOWER AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES AND BUOYANCY IMPROVES. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF A
QUICKLY MOVING CLIMATOLOGICALLY COLD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS A WARM
SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY EARLY APRIL DEW POINTS IN THE 60S
CERTAINLY FAVORS ORGANIZED STORM POTENTIAL...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS
WITH SIGNIFICANT SEVERE POTENTIAL...AS FURTHER VERIFIED BY
SEVERAL OF THE TOP MATCHING CIPS ANALOGS /SIMILAR SCENARIOS/.
HOWEVER...SEVERAL ANALOGS SHOW VERY LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER...AS
THE PRESENT INGREDIENTS JUST DID NOT LINE UP PERFECTLY AS CAN
OFTEN BE THE CASE IN MODERATE/STRONG DYNAMIC SITUATIONS. SO
CONFIDENCE REMAINS MINIMAL ON COVERAGE OF HIGHER INTENSITY
STORMS...BUT AT THIS JUNCTURE WOULD BE SURPRISED TO NOT HAVE AT
LEAST AN UPTICK IN LOWER ROOTED STORMS DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING PERIOD MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. WHILE THE NORTHERN CWA MAY HAVE MORE BACKED LOW-LEVEL
FLOW...THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE UNDER A STRONG SSW 50-55 KT LOW-
LEVEL JET WHICH WOULD KEEP SOME THREATS OF SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HAIL WILL
REMAIN THE GREATEST CONCERN...ESPECIALLY WITH THE AFTERNOON
ACTIVITY...BUT SOME ORGANIZED STRONG WINDS OR TORNADOES IN THE
REGION ARE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON STORM MODE/COVERAGE.
STORMS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 9 PM-12 AM THURSDAY EVENING
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WRAPPING IN ON GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* VFR VSBY THIS AFTERNOON TO LOWER BACK TO IFR TO MVFR AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING WITH FOG
* MVFR TO VFR CIGS LIKELY TO GO BACK TO IFR AFTER SUNSET
* SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE THIS EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AND DIMINISHING DURING MID AND LATE THU
MORNING.
* LIFR VIS/CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...IMPROVING DURING MID/LATE
THURSDAY MORNING AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS AREA.
KMH/EJL
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
CIGS/VIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS DEVELOPING. CIGS/VIS COULD POSSIBLY LOWER BACK TO IFR
OR EVEN LIFR AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW.
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SW HALF OF IL WILL TRACK
ENE AND INITIALLY STAY SOUTH OF CHICAGO AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
MID EVENING. FOCUS SHIFTS TO COMPLEX OF MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER MO AND TRACK NE INTO NE IL LATE THIS EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT AND THEN DIMINISH DURING MID/LATE THU MORNING AS WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF AREA. CONFIDENCE REGARDING
TIMING/LOCATION/COVERAGE IS LOW TO MEDIUM AND OPTED TO CONTINUE
WITH A LONGER DURATION OF VICINITY THUNDER FROM 05-09Z WITH HIGHER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 09-15Z.
GENERALLY NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS EVENING
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHEAST DURING OVERNIGHT...THEN MORE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS AND GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS LATER THURSDAY
MORNING AND THU AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE TERMINALS THU
MORNING. WHEN THIS OCCURS...EXPECT RAPID IMPROVEMENT THROUGH
MVFR CIGS AND LIKELY TO PREVAILING VFR CIGS...OUTSIDE PRECIP...LATER THU
MORNING.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VSBY LOWERING THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET WITH
FOG
* MEDIUM TO HIGH IN WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TS FROM LATE EVENING INTO THU MORNING...LOW TO
MEDIUM FOR TIMING AND COVERAGE.
KMH/EJL
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* THURSDAY NIGHT...STRONG TSRA IN THE EVENING. MVFR POSSIBLE.
STRONG/GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING WEST.
* FRIDAY...DRY/VFR. STRONG/GUSTY WEST WINDS.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTH WINDS. LAKE BREEZE POSSIBLE.
* SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. SOUTH WINDS.
* MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
415 AM...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF
LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THIS EVENING...THEN BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT AS LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS MOVES NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...REACHING
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 20-25KT RANGE TODAY...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN AS WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHWESTERLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY EVENING...THEY WILL INCREASE TO 30 KT...
SHIFTING WESTERLY THURSDAY NIGHT AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE LAKE. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
EVENING...THEN BECOME LIGHT SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN UNTIL 5 AM
THURSDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1249 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
1249 PM CDT
SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING AND GRADUALLY
INTENSIFYING OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
DECAYING MCS. MODIFYING ILX MORNING SOUNDING FOR CURRENT OBS AND
SPC OBJECTIVE MESOANALYSIS DATA SUGGEST MLCAPES NEARING 1000 J/KG
IN ADVANCE OF THESE STORMS WITH ONLY MODEST CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.
KILX WSR 88-D VWP WOULD SUGGEST 30-35KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WHICH
GIVEN THE INSTABILITY IS CERTAINLY SUFFICIENT FOR THESE STORMS TO
INTENSIFY AND POTENTIALLY GROW SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON. NOT TERRIBLY
CLEAR THE FORCING MECHANISM AND SFC WINDS ARE VEERS LESSENING LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...BUT GIVEN RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND CAPE/SHEAR
WITH ONLY WEAK INHIBITION IT SEEMS REASONABLE STORMS WILL CONTINUE
AND POTENTIALLY INTENSIFY AS THEY PUSH EAST INTO OUR SOUTHERN MOST
CWA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER PROXIMITY
OF WARM FRONT DOES BEAR WATCHING AS SHOULD A CELL MANAGE TO ATTACH
ITSELF TO AND RIDE THE WARM FRONT EAST THE SUPERCELL AND ATTENDANT
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WOULD INCREASE.
IZZI
&&
.SHORT TERM...
347 AM CDT
THROUGH THURSDAY...
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
MAIN FOCUS IS ON PERIODS OF CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS PART OF THE FORECAST AREAS...AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS OF GREAT
CONCERN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WI/LAKE MICHIGAN. THESE FEATURES APPEAR
TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE OF MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
PROPAGATING ACROSS THE REGION IN BROAD WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
IOWA LAST EVENING IN LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION MAXIMA
NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW...AND CONTINUE TO PERSIST AND EXPAND
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING ON 30
KT 925 MB JET AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS
OR SO OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE SURFACE WAVE MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA INDICATES UPSTREAM AIR
MASS CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.5
C/KM YIELDING 1000-1500 J/KG OF ELEVATED MUCAPE...AND ROUGHLY
40-45 KT OF EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR. SOME OF THE STRONGER
CORES MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME MARGINAL HAIL THIS
MORNING...THOUGH AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW VEERS MORE WESTERLY AND DECREASES AND REDUCES LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. THIS TREND IS SUPPORTED BY HIGH-RES HRRR/RAP
GUIDANCE WHICH INDICATE ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
13-14Z.
MOIST/SATURATED LOW LEVEL AIR MASS HAS ALSO REDUCED VISIBILITY IN
FOG OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG
NOTED. MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A HEADLINE...THOUGH MORNING SHOWERS
MAY HELP RAISE VISIBILITY SOMEWHAT AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED PRECIP FROM MID-
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE AND
WEAKENING OF THE SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. WEAK
BUT PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ABOVE THE SHALLOW COOL
BOUNDARY LAYER NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT...WHICH COULD PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE AT ABOUT ANY TIME...BUT IT APPEARS
THAT THE NEXT ORGANIZED ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MORE SO THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE EJECTS AHEAD OF ADVANCING WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH.
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES INCREASE MARKEDLY THIS EVENING AS THIS NEXT
WAVE APPROACHES THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE ELEVATED STORMS
TONIGHT MAY ALSO HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DEEP SHEAR.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL VERY LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...AND THE EFFECT OF THE
RESULTING COLD POOL AND CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY COMPLICATE THE
EVOLUTION OF AFTERNOON POTENTIALLY SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS THE
AREA. NONETHELESS...A STRONG AND VERY DYNAMIC SHORT WAVE WILL
EMANATE FROM THE CURRENT WEST COAST TROUGH RESULTING IN A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS
OR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF THE
APPROACHING VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL
LIFT THE CURRENT STATIONARY FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AS A WARM FRONT...WITH THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
MLCAPES INCREASE TO 1500-2500 J/KG. STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND BACKED SOUTHERLY WINDS IN LOW LEVELS AHEAD OF THE LOW
WILL SUPPLY COPIOUS SHEAR... SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA BY
MIDNIGHT. SPC HAS MAINTAINED A LARGE ENHANCED SEVERE RISK ACROSS
THE AREA FOR DAY 2/THURSDAY...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINING
PRIMARILY TO THE EFFECT OF MORNING CONVECTION ON MESOSCALE SURFACE
FEATURES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE DYNAMIC SYSTEM IS ABLE TO
OVERCOME STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF EARLIER STORMS...AND IT LIKELY
WILL TO SOME DEGREE...THEN A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF DAMAGING
WIND...LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL EXIST.
WITH THE SURFACE LOW PASSING NEAR/NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST DURING THE EVENING AND
BRING AN END TO THE SEVERE THREAT AS DRIER/COOLER AIR SPREADS IN.
A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST BEHIND THE FIRST SYSTEM ON FRIDAY...THOUGH DRY
AIRMASS AND CAPPING INVERSION IN 700-600 MB LAYER NOTED IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD PRECLUDE PRECIP IN ANY ORGANIZED
FASHION.
TEMPS...SHARP CONTRAST CONTINUES TODAY-TONIGHT WITH EAST-
NORTHEAST FLOW NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND MOIST/CLOUDY LOW
LEVEL AIR MASS. MAY VERY WELL SEE HIGHS TODAY RANGING FROM THE
MID-40S IN FAR NORTHEAST IL TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE LOT/ILX
BORDER. WITH FRONT LIFTING NORTH THURSDAY MUCH OF THE AREA MAY BE
IN THE 70S...THOUGH AGAIN MORNING CONVECTION AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
OR CLOUDS COULD AFFECT MAX TEMPS. COOLER BUT NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT STILL 55-60.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
142 AM CDT
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE FIRST FEW PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY
BENIGN FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH ENSEMBLES DEMONSTRATING
MINIMAL SPREAD IN THE 500MB WAVE PATTERN. WEAK TROUGHING WILL BE
PIVOTING EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION SAT...WITH DIFFLUENT
FLOW ARRIVING FOR THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SAT. THE PATTERN QUICKLY
FLATTENS SUN...WITH PRECIP CHANCES RETURNING FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ENSEMBLES BEGIN TO POINT TOWARDS A TROUGH TRYING TO DIG INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS MON...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING ALONG
THE LEE-SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. WITH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
OPEN...MOISTURE SHOULD EASILY LIFT NORTH TOWARDS THE OZARKS INTO IL
LATE MON INTO TUE. AS A RESULT INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER MON/TUE OF NEXT WEEK.
WITH THE RELATIVELY ACTIVE FLOW...THE EXTENDED TEMPS MAY END UP
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL OR MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 60S. PRIOR TO THE
SHORTWAVE ARRIVAL MON...TEMPS MAY PUSH INTO THE UPR 60S OR NEAR 70.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN MILD.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* IFR VSBY IMPROVES TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON
* LIFR CIGS POTENTIALLY IMPROVING TO IFR THIS EVENING
* SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT
* LIFR VIS/CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...IMPROVING THURSDAY MORNING.
JEE/IZZI
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
CIGS/VIS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY
BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH VIS IMPROVING POSSIBLY TO MVFR. CIGS/VIS
COULD POSSIBLY LOWER BACK TO LIFR THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN IL INTO NORTH CENTRAL
INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
AREA THIS MORNING. SOME DRIZZLE THIS MORNING AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
SHOWER BUT THE DAYLIGHT HOURS APPEAR DRY FOR THE TERMINALS. FOCUS
SHIFTS TO COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST MO...WHICH WILL
LIKELY MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST AND INTO PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL IL MID/
LATE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN IL THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. CONFIDENCE REGARDING TIMING/LOCATION/COVERAGE IS STILL LOW
ENOUGH THAT OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH A LONGER DURATION OF VICINITY
THUNDER.
GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS EVENING WITH
SPEEDS LIKELY AT OR ABOVE 10 KTS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN
SOUTHEAST LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THEN MORE SOUTH/
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
TERMINALS. WHEN THIS OCCURS...EXPECT RAPID IMPROVEMENT THROUGH
MVFR CIGS AND LIKELY TO PREVAILING VFR CIGS...OUTSIDE PRECIP...
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS/VSBY THROUGH
THIS EVENING
* MEDIUM IN WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TS TONIGHT...LOW FOR TIMING AND COVERAGE.
JEE/CMS/IZZI
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* THURSDAY NIGHT...STRONG TSRA IN THE EVENING. MVFR POSSIBLE.
STRONG/GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING WEST.
* FRIDAY...DRY/VFR. STRONG/GUSTY WEST WINDS.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTH WINDS. LAKE BREEZE POSSIBLE.
* SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. SOUTH WINDS.
* MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
415 AM...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF
LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THIS EVENING...THEN BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT AS LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS MOVES NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...REACHING
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 20-25KT RANGE TODAY...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN AS WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHWESTERLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY EVENING...THEY WILL INCREASE TO 30 KT...
SHIFTING WESTERLY THURSDAY NIGHT AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE LAKE. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
EVENING...THEN BECOME LIGHT SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN UNTIL 5 AM
THURSDAY.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1224 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1034 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
Have made some adjustments to PoPs and Wx based on position of
boundaries from earlier convection and the anticipated evolution
of incoming wave. High temperature forecasts remain reasonable.
Elevated boundary over southeast forecast area continues to
produce isolated thunderstorms as it sags south. Next system is
moving through Missouri this morning. Leading edge is weakening as
it moves into more stable air in wake of morning convection and
fog. This trend should change as temps rise well into the 70s and
dew pts reach well into 60s over much of the southern two-thirds
of CWA. Lastest HRRR suggests that best chances for afternoon storms
should remain south of I-72.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
Latest surface analysis indicates the frontal boundary that was
holding stationary over south central Illinois has shifted further
north early this morning as a weak wave of low pressure was
approaching west central Illinois. Scattered convection has been
occurring north of the boundary over parts of east central Iowa
east into our far northern counties with some nickel hail reported
over the past hour around Lacon in Marshall county. We expect the
scattered convection to continue into the morning hours as the wave
rides east along the boundary. As the surface low shifts to our east
later this morning, there may actually be a southward push to the
front which is going to cause some significant problems with respect
to the afternoon temperatures, especially along and north of I-74.
The latest HRRR does indicate another weak wave forming to our west
along the boundary early this afternoon with another complex of
storms approaching west central IL. Not sure if this particular
complex of storms will ride along the boundary into central Illinois
or dive more southeast into the higher instability air mass south
of the front. POPs will increase again this afternoon in response to
this secondary wave approaching from the west. Severe potential
increases this afternoon thru this evening as the boundary gets
a push northward as the more significant shortwave pushes into the
Plains. With the warm front expected to edge across the area this
afternoon and evening, damaging wind gusts, large hail and isolated
tornadoes will all be possible. The tornado threat looks tied more
into areas along and just north of the warm front later this
afternoon and evening. Coolest temps north of I-74 where more of an
easterly flow will prevail, while south of the boundary, a blend of
the MET/MAV guid seems reasonable at this point.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
Severe weather threat through Thursday evening continues to dominate
the first part of the forecast. Current upper low moving into
northwest Nevada will open up but remain a fairly sharp wave as it
traverses the Plains on Thursday. This will help develop a surface
low over western Kansas this evening, which will surge northeast and
shove the frontal boundary back northward tonight. The trailing cold
front will sweep from west to east across the state Thursday evening
as a result.
Convection to our southwest expected to expand northeastward into
the mid-Mississippi Valley this evening. Latest SPC Day1 outlook
extended the slight risk across the entire CWA, with an enhanced
risk of severe storms from basically Springfield-Peoria westward.
This enhanced risk covers the entire area on Thursday, with
high-resolution models focusing on the mid-afternoon through early
evening time frame as the best potential in our area.
Short period of cooler and drier weather on tap for the first part
of the weekend, as high pressure drifts across the Midwest. However,
longer range models showing extended periods of rain chances early
next week. The GFS and ECMWF have a sizable range on the position
of a frontal boundary that will be setting up Sunday night and
Monday, both starting off roughly along I-70 but the GFS shows a
much stronger surge to the north by Tuesday. However, with both
favoring some sort of precip, have kept healthy rain chances in the
forecast for early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015
Next cluster of storms moving into western Illinois at this time.
As they do so they will be encountering more unstable conditions
once they move east of the Illinois river and into the warm
sector. Some of the convection may become significant with
convective wind shear. Another convective cluster is expected
overnight however there is more uncertianty on the track of the
overnight system as it may impact areas south of the central
Illinois terminals. Will mainly reflect this uncertainty by
including a VCTS rather than a dominant group. Winds will also be
quite uncertian as the frontal boundary in the area will be
modulated by the track of the clusters. Abundant boundary layer
moisture both near and north of the front will keep CIGS in place
with IFR to at best MVFR conditions.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barker
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Barker
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1115 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...
347 AM CDT
THROUGH THURSDAY...
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
MAIN FOCUS IS ON PERIODS OF CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS PART OF THE FORECAST AREAS...AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS OF GREAT
CONCERN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WI/LAKE MICHIGAN. THESE FEATURES APPEAR
TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE OF MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
PROPAGATING ACROSS THE REGION IN BROAD WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
IOWA LAST EVENING IN LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION MAXIMA
NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW...AND CONTINUE TO PERSIST AND EXPAND
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING ON 30
KT 925 MB JET AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS
OR SO OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE SURFACE WAVE MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA INDICATES UPSTREAM AIR
MASS CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.5
C/KM YIELDING 1000-1500 J/KG OF ELEVATED MUCAPE...AND ROUGHLY
40-45 KT OF EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR. SOME OF THE STRONGER
CORES MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME MARGINAL HAIL THIS
MORNING...THOUGH AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW VEERS MORE WESTERLY AND DECREASES AND REDUCES LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. THIS TREND IS SUPPORTED BY HIGH-RES HRRR/RAP
GUIDANCE WHICH INDICATE ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
13-14Z.
MOIST/SATURATED LOW LEVEL AIR MASS HAS ALSO REDUCED VISIBILITY IN
FOG OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG
NOTED. MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A HEADLINE...THOUGH MORNING SHOWERS
MAY HELP RAISE VISIBILITY SOMEWHAT AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED PRECIP FROM MID-
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE AND
WEAKENING OF THE SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. WEAK
BUT PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ABOVE THE SHALLOW COOL
BOUNDARY LAYER NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT...WHICH COULD PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE AT ABOUT ANY TIME...BUT IT APPEARS
THAT THE NEXT ORGANIZED ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MORE SO THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE EJECTS AHEAD OF ADVANCING WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH.
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES INCREASE MARKEDLY THIS EVENING AS THIS NEXT
WAVE APPROACHES THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE ELEVATED STORMS
TONIGHT MAY ALSO HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DEEP SHEAR.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL VERY LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...AND THE EFFECT OF THE
RESULTING COLD POOL AND CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY COMPLICATE THE
EVOLUTION OF AFTERNOON POTENTIALLY SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS THE
AREA. NONETHELESS...A STRONG AND VERY DYNAMIC SHORT WAVE WILL
EMANATE FROM THE CURRENT WEST COAST TROUGH RESULTING IN A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS
OR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF THE
APPROACHING VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL
LIFT THE CURRENT STATIONARY FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AS A WARM FRONT...WITH THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
MLCAPES INCREASE TO 1500-2500 J/KG. STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND BACKED SOUTHERLY WINDS IN LOW LEVELS AHEAD OF THE LOW
WILL SUPPLY COPIOUS SHEAR... SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA BY
MIDNIGHT. SPC HAS MAINTAINED A LARGE ENHANCED SEVERE RISK ACROSS
THE AREA FOR DAY 2/THURSDAY...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINING
PRIMARILY TO THE EFFECT OF MORNING CONVECTION ON MESOSCALE SURFACE
FEATURES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE DYNAMIC SYSTEM IS ABLE TO
OVERCOME STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF EARLIER STORMS...AND IT LIKELY
WILL TO SOME DEGREE...THEN A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF DAMAGING
WIND...LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL EXIST.
WITH THE SURFACE LOW PASSING NEAR/NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST DURING THE EVENING AND
BRING AN END TO THE SEVERE THREAT AS DRIER/COOLER AIR SPREADS IN.
A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST BEHIND THE FIRST SYSTEM ON FRIDAY...THOUGH DRY
AIRMASS AND CAPPING INVERSION IN 700-600 MB LAYER NOTED IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD PRECLUDE PRECIP IN ANY ORGANIZED
FASHION.
TEMPS...SHARP CONTRAST CONTINUES TODAY-TONIGHT WITH EAST-
NORTHEAST FLOW NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND MOIST/CLOUDY LOW
LEVEL AIR MASS. MAY VERY WELL SEE HIGHS TODAY RANGING FROM THE
MID-40S IN FAR NORTHEAST IL TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE LOT/ILX
BORDER. WITH FRONT LIFTING NORTH THURSDAY MUCH OF THE AREA MAY BE
IN THE 70S...THOUGH AGAIN MORNING CONVECTION AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
OR CLOUDS COULD AFFECT MAX TEMPS. COOLER BUT NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT STILL 55-60.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
142 AM CDT
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE FIRST FEW PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY
BENIGN FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH ENSEMBLES DEMONSTRATING
MINIMAL SPREAD IN THE 500MB WAVE PATTERN. WEAK TROUGHING WILL BE
PIVOTING EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION SAT...WITH DIFFLUENT
FLOW ARRIVING FOR THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SAT. THE PATTERN QUICKLY
FLATTENS SUN...WITH PRECIP CHANCES RETURNING FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ENSEMBLES BEGIN TO POINT TOWARDS A TROUGH TRYING TO DIG INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS MON...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING ALONG
THE LEE-SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. WITH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
OPEN...MOISTURE SHOULD EASILY LIFT NORTH TOWARDS THE OZARKS INTO IL
LATE MON INTO TUE. AS A RESULT INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER MON/TUE OF NEXT WEEK.
WITH THE RELATIVELY ACTIVE FLOW...THE EXTENDED TEMPS MAY END UP
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL OR MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 60S. PRIOR TO THE
SHORTWAVE ARRIVAL MON...TEMPS MAY PUSH INTO THE UPR 60S OR NEAR 70.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN MILD.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* IFR VSBY IN FOG IMPROVES TO MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON
* LIFR CIGS POTENTIALLY IMPROVING TO IFR DURING THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING
* SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT
* LIFR VIS/CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...IMPROVING THURSDAY MORNING.
JEE/IZZI
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
CIGS/VIS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY
BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH VIS IMPROVING POSSIBLY TO MVFR. CIGS/VIS
COULD POSSIBLY LOWER BACK TO LIFR THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN IL INTO NORTH CENTRAL
INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
AREA THIS MORNING. SOME DRIZZLE THIS MORNING AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
SHOWER BUT THE DAYLIGHT HOURS APPEAR DRY FOR THE TERMINALS. FOCUS
SHIFTS TO COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST MO...WHICH WILL
LIKELY MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST AND INTO PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL IL MID/
LATE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN IL THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. CONFIDENCE REGARDING TIMING/LOCATION/COVERAGE IS STILL LOW
ENOUGH THAT OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH A LONGER DURATION OF VICINITY
THUNDER.
GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS EVENING WITH
SPEEDS LIKELY AT OR ABOVE 10 KTS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN
SOUTHEAST LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THEN MORE SOUTH/
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
TERMINALS. WHEN THIS OCCURS...EXPECT RAPID IMPROVEMENT THROUGH
MVFR CIGS AND LIKELY TO PREVAILING VFR CIGS...OUTSIDE PRECIP...
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SLOW IMPROVMENT IN CIGS/VSBY REST OF TODAY
* MEDIUM TO HIGH IN WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT...MEDIUM TO LOW WITH WINDS
ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH TIMING OF WARM FRONT.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TS OVERNIGHT...LOW FOR TIMING AND COVERAGE.
JEE/CMS/IZZI/KMH/EJL
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* THURSDAY NIGHT...STRONG TSRA IN THE EVENING. MVFR POSSIBLE.
STRONG/GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING WEST.
* FRIDAY...DRY/VFR. STRONG/GUSTY WEST WINDS.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTH WINDS. LAKE BREEZE POSSIBLE.
* SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. SOUTH WINDS.
* MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
415 AM...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF
LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THIS EVENING...THEN BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT AS LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS MOVES NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...REACHING
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 20-25KT RANGE TODAY...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN AS WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHWESTERLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY EVENING...THEY WILL INCREASE TO 30 KT...
SHIFTING WESTERLY THURSDAY NIGHT AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE LAKE. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
EVENING...THEN BECOME LIGHT SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN UNTIL 5 AM
THURSDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1034 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1034 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
Have made some adjustments to PoPs and Wx based on position of
boundaries from earlier convection and the anticipated evolution
of incoming wave. High temperature forecasts remain reasonable.
Elevated boundary over southeast forecast area continues to
produce isolated thunderstorms as it sags south. Next system is
moving through Missouri this morning. Leading edge is weakening as
it moves into more stable air in wake of morning convection and
fog. This trend should change as temps rise well into the 70s and
dew pts reach well into 60s over much of the southern two-thirds
of CWA. Lastest HRRR suggests that best chances for afternoon storms
should remain south of I-72.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
Latest surface analysis indicates the frontal boundary that was
holding stationary over south central Illinois has shifted further
north early this morning as a weak wave of low pressure was
approaching west central Illinois. Scattered convection has been
occurring north of the boundary over parts of east central Iowa
east into our far northern counties with some nickel hail reported
over the past hour around Lacon in Marshall county. We expect the
scattered convection to continue into the morning hours as the wave
rides east along the boundary. As the surface low shifts to our east
later this morning, there may actually be a southward push to the
front which is going to cause some significant problems with respect
to the afternoon temperatures, especially along and north of I-74.
The latest HRRR does indicate another weak wave forming to our west
along the boundary early this afternoon with another complex of
storms approaching west central IL. Not sure if this particular
complex of storms will ride along the boundary into central Illinois
or dive more southeast into the higher instability air mass south
of the front. POPs will increase again this afternoon in response to
this secondary wave approaching from the west. Severe potential
increases this afternoon thru this evening as the boundary gets
a push northward as the more significant shortwave pushes into the
Plains. With the warm front expected to edge across the area this
afternoon and evening, damaging wind gusts, large hail and isolated
tornadoes will all be possible. The tornado threat looks tied more
into areas along and just north of the warm front later this
afternoon and evening. Coolest temps north of I-74 where more of an
easterly flow will prevail, while south of the boundary, a blend of
the MET/MAV guid seems reasonable at this point.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
Severe weather threat through Thursday evening continues to dominate
the first part of the forecast. Current upper low moving into
northwest Nevada will open up but remain a fairly sharp wave as it
traverses the Plains on Thursday. This will help develop a surface
low over western Kansas this evening, which will surge northeast and
shove the frontal boundary back northward tonight. The trailing cold
front will sweep from west to east across the state Thursday evening
as a result.
Convection to our southwest expected to expand northeastward into
the mid-Mississippi Valley this evening. Latest SPC Day1 outlook
extended the slight risk across the entire CWA, with an enhanced
risk of severe storms from basically Springfield-Peoria westward.
This enhanced risk covers the entire area on Thursday, with
high-resolution models focusing on the mid-afternoon through early
evening time frame as the best potential in our area.
Short period of cooler and drier weather on tap for the first part
of the weekend, as high pressure drifts across the Midwest. However,
longer range models showing extended periods of rain chances early
next week. The GFS and ECMWF have a sizable range on the position
of a frontal boundary that will be setting up Sunday night and
Monday, both starting off roughly along I-70 but the GFS shows a
much stronger surge to the north by Tuesday. However, with both
favoring some sort of precip, have kept healthy rain chances in the
forecast for early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
Frontal boundary located over the northern portion of the forecast
area this morning will be the focus for periods of showers and
thunderstorms along with LIFR cigs and vsbys with some of the
heavy thunderstorms. Outside of the convection, and south of
the frontal boundary, we will see a period of VFR cigs today
with the main band of convection moving in after 21z but scattered
in nature, so will continue to handle with VCTS until we see how
the storms develop to our west later today.
Surface winds will be quite variable in direction and speed in
and near the thunderstorms today. Most of our area will see
southeast winds at 10 to 15 kts today into tonight.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barker
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
650 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...
347 AM CDT
THROUGH THURSDAY...
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
MAIN FOCUS IS ON PERIODS OF CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS PART OF THE FORECAST AREAS...AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS OF GREAT
CONCERN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WI/LAKE MICHIGAN. THESE FEATURES APPEAR
TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE OF MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
PROPAGATING ACROSS THE REGION IN BROAD WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
IOWA LAST EVENING IN LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION MAXIMA
NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW...AND CONTINUE TO PERSIST AND EXPAND
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING ON 30
KT 925 MB JET AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS
OR SO OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE SURFACE WAVE MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA INDICATES UPSTREAM AIR
MASS CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.5
C/KM YIELDING 1000-1500 J/KG OF ELEVATED MUCAPE...AND ROUGHLY
40-45 KT OF EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR. SOME OF THE STRONGER
CORES MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME MARGINAL HAIL THIS
MORNING...THOUGH AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW VEERS MORE WESTERLY AND DECREASES AND REDUCES LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. THIS TREND IS SUPPORTED BY HIGH-RES HRRR/RAP
GUIDANCE WHICH INDICATE ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
13-14Z.
MOIST/SATURATED LOW LEVEL AIR MASS HAS ALSO REDUCED VISIBILITY IN
FOG OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG
NOTED. MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A HEADLINE...THOUGH MORNING SHOWERS
MAY HELP RAISE VISIBILITY SOMEWHAT AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED PRECIP FROM MID-
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE AND
WEAKENING OF THE SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. WEAK
BUT PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ABOVE THE SHALLOW COOL
BOUNDARY LAYER NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT...WHICH COULD PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE AT ABOUT ANY TIME...BUT IT APPEARS
THAT THE NEXT ORGANIZED ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MORE SO THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE EJECTS AHEAD OF ADVANCING WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH.
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES INCREASE MARKEDLY THIS EVENING AS THIS NEXT
WAVE APPROACHES THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE ELEVATED STORMS
TONIGHT MAY ALSO HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DEEP SHEAR.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL VERY LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...AND THE EFFECT OF THE
RESULTING COLD POOL AND CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY COMPLICATE THE
EVOLUTION OF AFTERNOON POTENTIALLY SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS THE
AREA. NONETHELESS...A STRONG AND VERY DYNAMIC SHORT WAVE WILL
EMANATE FROM THE CURRENT WEST COAST TROUGH RESULTING IN A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS
OR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF THE
APPROACHING VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL
LIFT THE CURRENT STATIONARY FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AS A WARM FRONT...WITH THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
MLCAPES INCREASE TO 1500-2500 J/KG. STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND BACKED SOUTHERLY WINDS IN LOW LEVELS AHEAD OF THE LOW
WILL SUPPLY COPIOUS SHEAR... SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA BY
MIDNIGHT. SPC HAS MAINTAINED A LARGE ENHANCED SEVERE RISK ACROSS
THE AREA FOR DAY 2/THURSDAY...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINING
PRIMARILY TO THE EFFECT OF MORNING CONVECTION ON MESOSCALE SURFACE
FEATURES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE DYNAMIC SYSTEM IS ABLE TO
OVERCOME STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF EARLIER STORMS...AND IT LIKELY
WILL TO SOME DEGREE...THEN A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF DAMAGING
WIND...LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL EXIST.
WITH THE SURFACE LOW PASSING NEAR/NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST DURING THE EVENING AND
BRING AN END TO THE SEVERE THREAT AS DRIER/COOLER AIR SPREADS IN.
A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST BEHIND THE FIRST SYSTEM ON FRIDAY...THOUGH DRY
AIRMASS AND CAPPING INVERSION IN 700-600 MB LAYER NOTED IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD PRECLUDE PRECIP IN ANY ORGANIZED
FASHION.
TEMPS...SHARP CONTRAST CONTINUES TODAY-TONIGHT WITH EAST-
NORTHEAST FLOW NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND MOIST/CLOUDY LOW
LEVEL AIR MASS. MAY VERY WELL SEE HIGHS TODAY RANGING FROM THE
MID-40S IN FAR NORTHEAST IL TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE LOT/ILX
BORDER. WITH FRONT LIFTING NORTH THURSDAY MUCH OF THE AREA MAY BE
IN THE 70S...THOUGH AGAIN MORNING CONVECTION AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
OR CLOUDS COULD AFFECT MAX TEMPS. COOLER BUT NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT STILL 55-60.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
142 AM CDT
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE FIRST FEW PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY
BENIGN FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH ENSEMBLES DEMONSTRATING
MINIMAL SPREAD IN THE 500MB WAVE PATTERN. WEAK TROUGHING WILL BE
PIVOTING EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION SAT...WITH DIFFLUENT
FLOW ARRIVING FOR THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SAT. THE PATTERN QUICKLY
FLATTENS SUN...WITH PRECIP CHANCES RETURNING FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ENSEMBLES BEGIN TO POINT TOWARDS A TROUGH TRYING TO DIG INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS MON...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING ALONG
THE LEE-SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. WITH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
OPEN...MOISTURE SHOULD EASILY LIFT NORTH TOWARDS THE OZARKS INTO IL
LATE MON INTO TUE. AS A RESULT INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER MON/TUE OF NEXT WEEK.
WITH THE RELATIVELY ACTIVE FLOW...THE EXTENDED TEMPS MAY END UP
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL OR MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 60S. PRIOR TO THE
SHORTWAVE ARRIVAL MON...TEMPS MAY PUSH INTO THE UPR 60S OR NEAR 70.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN MILD.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* LIFR CIGS/VIS IMPROVING TO IFR THIS AFTERNOON.
* SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT.
* LIFR VIS/CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...IMPROVING THURSDAY MORNING.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
CIGS/VIS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY
BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH VIS IMPROVING POSSIBLY TO MVFR. CIGS/VIS
COULD POSSIBLY LOWER BACK TO LIFR THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN IL INTO NORTH CENTRAL
INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
AREA THIS MORNING. SOME DRIZZLE THIS MORNING AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
SHOWER BUT THE DAYLIGHT HOURS APPEAR DRY FOR THE TERMINALS. FOCUS
SHIFTS TO COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST MO...WHICH WILL
LIKELY MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST AND INTO PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL IL MID/
LATE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN IL THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. CONFIDENCE REGARDING TIMING/LOCATION/COVERAGE IS STILL LOW
ENOUGH THAT OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH A LONGER DURATION OF VICINITY
THUNDER.
GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS EVENING WITH
SPEEDS LIKELY AT OR ABOVE 10 KTS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN
SOUTHEAST LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THEN MORE SOUTH/
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
TERMINALS. WHEN THIS OCCURS...EXPECT RAPID IMPROVEMENT THROUGH
MVFR CIGS AND LIKELY TO PREVAILING VFR CIGS...OUTSIDE PRECIP...
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* MEDIUM FOR CIGS/VIS THRU THE PERIOD.
* MEDIUM FOR WINDS THRU PERIOD.
* MEDIUM FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...LOW FOR TIMING/COVERAGE. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* THURSDAY NIGHT...STRONG TSRA IN THE EVENING. MVFR POSSIBLE.
STRONG/GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING WEST.
* FRIDAY...DRY/VFR. STRONG/GUSTY WEST WINDS.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTH WINDS. LAKE BREEZE POSSIBLE.
* SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. SOUTH WINDS.
* MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
415 AM...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF
LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THIS EVENING...THEN BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT AS LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS MOVES NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...REACHING
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 20-25KT RANGE TODAY...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN AS WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHWESTERLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY EVENING...THEY WILL INCREASE TO 30 KT...
SHIFTING WESTERLY THURSDAY NIGHT AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE LAKE. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
EVENING...THEN BECOME LIGHT SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN
UNTIL 5 AM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
631 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
Latest surface analysis indicates the frontal boundary that was
holding stationary over south central Illinois has shifted further
north early this morning as a weak wave of low pressure was
approaching west central Illinois. Scattered convection has been
occurring north of the boundary over parts of east central Iowa
east into our far northern counties with some nickel hail reported
over the past hour around Lacon in Marshall county. We expect the
scattered convection to continue into the morning hours as the wave
rides east along the boundary. As the surface low shifts to our east
later this morning, there may actually be a southward push to the
front which is going to cause some significant problems with respect
to the afternoon temperatures, especially along and north of I-74.
The latest HRRR does indicate another weak wave forming to our west
along the boundary early this afternoon with another complex of
storms approaching west central IL. Not sure if this particular
complex of storms will ride along the boundary into central Illinois
or dive more southeast into the higher instability air mass south
of the front. POPs will increase again this afternoon in response to
this secondary wave approaching from the west. Severe potential
increases this afternoon thru this evening as the boundary gets
a push northward as the more significant shortwave pushes into the
Plains. With the warm front expected to edge across the area this
afternoon and evening, damaging wind gusts, large hail and isolated
tornadoes will all be possible. The tornado threat looks tied more
into areas along and just north of the warm front later this
afternoon and evening. Coolest temps north of I-74 where more of an
easterly flow will prevail, while south of the boundary, a blend of
the MET/MAV guid seems reasonable at this point.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
Severe weather threat through Thursday evening continues to dominate
the first part of the forecast. Current upper low moving into
northwest Nevada will open up but remain a fairly sharp wave as it
traverses the Plains on Thursday. This will help develop a surface
low over western Kansas this evening, which will surge northeast and
shove the frontal boundary back northward tonight. The trailing cold
front will sweep from west to east across the state Thursday evening
as a result.
Convection to our southwest expected to expand northeastward into
the mid-Mississippi Valley this evening. Latest SPC Day1 outlook
extended the slight risk across the entire CWA, with an enhanced
risk of severe storms from basically Springfield-Peoria westward.
This enhanced risk covers the entire area on Thursday, with
high-resolution models focusing on the mid-afternoon through early
evening time frame as the best potential in our area.
Short period of cooler and drier weather on tap for the first part
of the weekend, as high pressure drifts across the Midwest. However,
longer range models showing extended periods of rain chances early
next week. The GFS and ECMWF have a sizable range on the position
of a frontal boundary that will be setting up Sunday night and
Monday, both starting off roughly along I-70 but the GFS shows a
much stronger surge to the north by Tuesday. However, with both
favoring some sort of precip, have kept healthy rain chances in the
forecast for early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
Frontal boundary located over the northern portion of the forecast
area this morning will be the focus for periods of showers and
thunderstorms along with LIFR cigs and vsbys with some of the
heavy thunderstorms. Outside of the convection, and south of
the frontal boundary, we will see a period of VFR cigs today
with the main band of convection moving in after 21z but scattered
in nature, so will continue to handle with VCTS until we see how
the storms develop to our west later today.
Surface winds will be quite variable in direction and speed in
and near the thunderstorms today. Most of our area will see
southeast winds at 10 to 15 kts today into tonight.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
347 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...
347 AM CDT
THROUGH THURSDAY...
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
MAIN FOCUS IS ON PERIODS OF CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS PART OF THE FORECAST AREAS...AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS OF GREAT
CONCERN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WI/LAKE MICHIGAN. THESE FEATURES APPEAR
TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE OF MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
PROPAGATING ACROSS THE REGION IN BROAD WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
IOWA LAST EVENING IN LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION MAXIMA
NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW...AND CONTINUE TO PERSIST AND EXPAND
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING ON 30
KT 925 MB JET AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS
OR SO OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE SURFACE WAVE MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA INDICATES UPSTREAM AIR
MASS CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.5
C/KM YIELDING 1000-1500 J/KG OF ELEVATED MUCAPE...AND ROUGHLY
40-45 KT OF EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR. SOME OF THE STRONGER
CORES MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME MARGINAL HAIL THIS
MORNING...THOUGH AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW VEERS MORE WESTERLY AND DECREASES AND REDUCES LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. THIS TREND IS SUPPORTED BY HIGH-RES HRRR/RAP
GUIDANCE WHICH INDICATE ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
13-14Z.
MOIST/SATURATED LOW LEVEL AIR MASS HAS ALSO REDUCED VISIBILITY IN
FOG OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG
NOTED. MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A HEADLINE...THOUGH MORNING SHOWERS
MAY HELP RAISE VISIBILITY SOMEWHAT AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED PRECIP FROM MID-
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE AND
WEAKENING OF THE SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. WEAK
BUT PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ABOVE THE SHALLOW COOL
BOUNDARY LAYER NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT...WHICH COULD PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE AT ABOUT ANY TIME...BUT IT APPEARS
THAT THE NEXT ORGANIZED ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MORE SO THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE EJECTS AHEAD OF ADVANCING WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH.
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES INCREASE MARKEDLY THIS EVENING AS THIS NEXT
WAVE APPROACHES THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE ELEVATED STORMS
TONIGHT MAY ALSO HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DEEP SHEAR.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL VERY LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...AND THE EFFECT OF THE
RESULTING COLD POOL AND CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY COMPLICATE THE
EVOLUTION OF AFTERNOON POTENTIALLY SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS THE
AREA. NONETHELESS...A STRONG AND VERY DYNAMIC SHORT WAVE WILL
EMANATE FROM THE CURRENT WEST COAST TROUGH RESULTING IN A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS
OR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF THE
APPROACHING VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL
LIFT THE CURRENT STATIONARY FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AS A WARM FRONT...WITH THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
MLCAPES INCREASE TO 1500-2500 J/KG. STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND BACKED SOUTHERLY WINDS IN LOW LEVELS AHEAD OF THE LOW
WILL SUPPLY COPIOUS SHEAR... SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA BY
MIDNIGHT. SPC HAS MAINTAINED A LARGE ENHANCED SEVERE RISK ACROSS
THE AREA FOR DAY 2/THURSDAY...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINING
PRIMARILY TO THE EFFECT OF MORNING CONVECTION ON MESOSCALE SURFACE
FEATURES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE DYNAMIC SYSTEM IS ABLE TO
OVERCOME STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF EARLIER STORMS...AND IT LIKELY
WILL TO SOME DEGREE...THEN A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF DAMAGING
WIND...LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL EXIST.
WITH THE SURFACE LOW PASSING NEAR/NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST DURING THE EVENING AND
BRING AN END TO THE SEVERE THREAT AS DRIER/COOLER AIR SPREADS IN.
A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST BEHIND THE FIRST SYSTEM ON FRIDAY...THOUGH DRY
AIRMASS AND CAPPING INVERSION IN 700-600 MB LAYER NOTED IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD PRECLUDE PRECIP IN ANY ORGANIZED
FASHION.
TEMPS...SHARP CONTRAST CONTINUES TODAY-TONIGHT WITH EAST-
NORTHEAST FLOW NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND MOIST/CLOUDY LOW
LEVEL AIR MASS. MAY VERY WELL SEE HIGHS TODAY RANGING FROM THE
MID-40S IN FAR NORTHEAST IL TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE LOT/ILX
BORDER. WITH FRONT LIFTING NORTH THURSDAY MUCH OF THE AREA MAY BE
IN THE 70S...THOUGH AGAIN MORNING CONVECTION AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
OR CLOUDS COULD AFFECT MAX TEMPS. COOLER BUT NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT STILL 55-60.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
142 AM CDT
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE FIRST FEW PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY
BENIGN FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH ENSEMBLES DEMONSTRATING
MINIMAL SPREAD IN THE 500MB WAVE PATTERN. WEAK TROUGHING WILL BE
PIVOTING EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION SAT...WITH DIFFLUENT
FLOW ARRIVING FOR THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SAT. THE PATTERN QUICKLY
FLATTENS SUN...WITH PRECIP CHANCES RETURNING FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ENSEMBLES BEGIN TO POINT TOWARDS A TROUGH TRYING TO DIG INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS MON...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING ALONG
THE LEE-SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. WITH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
OPEN...MOISTURE SHOULD EASILY LIFT NORTH TOWARDS THE OZARKS INTO IL
LATE MON INTO TUE. AS A RESULT INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER MON/TUE OF NEXT WEEK.
WITH THE RELATIVELY ACTIVE FLOW...THE EXTENDED TEMPS MAY END UP
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL OR MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 60S. PRIOR TO THE
SHORTWAVE ARRIVAL MON...TEMPS MAY PUSH INTO THE UPR 60S OR NEAR 70.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN MILD.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* IFR/LIFR THRU THE PERIOD.
* EASTERLY WINDS THRU THE PERIOD.
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT THRU MID MORNING...LOW CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.
* SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST IA WILL MOVE GENERALLY
EAST INTO WEST CENTRAL IL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SHORT TERM/HI
RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS ACTIVITY REMAINING MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS AND SLOWLY WEAKENING TOWARD SUNRISE WITH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN IL AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA...WITH SHOWERS OR POSSIBLE DRIZZLE FURTHER NORTH.
CONFIDENCE OF TSRA AT THE TERMINALS IS LOW ENOUGH TO REMOVE
MENTION OTHER THAN VICINITY AT GYY BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED EARLY THIS MORNING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE THRU THE DAY BUT GENERALLY SOUTH OF
THE TERMINALS SO HAVE MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE...PERHAPS IN A COUPLE OF WAVES...THRU THURSDAY MORNING.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE SO INCLUDED VICINITY MENTION BUT LOW CONFIDENCE
FOR TIMING/DURATION.
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED EAST/SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD
GRADUALLY TURN BACK EASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY
LATER THIS MORNING. SPEEDS ARE BIT UNCERTAIN AS GUIDANCE SUGGEST
SPEEDS COULD DIMINISH UNDER 10KTS BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
LOWER PREVAILING SPEEDS JUST YET. WINDS WILL TURN BACK MORE EAST
OR SOUTHEAST LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THEN LIKELY SHIFT
SOUTHERLY BY THURSDAY MORNING.
IFR/LIFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU THE PERIOD...PERHAPS
LOWERING A BIT TOWARD SUNRISE WITH VISIBILITIES ALSO LOWERING. ITS
POSSIBLE CIGS MAY LIFT TO LOWER MVFR THIS AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH FOR IFR/LIFR THRU THE PERIOD.
* MEDIUM FOR WINDS THRU THE PERIOD.
* MEDIUM FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...LOW FOR INTENSITY/DURATION. LOW
FOR CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD DAYBREAK.
* MEDIUM FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...LOW ON TIMING/DURATION. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* THURSDAY...STRONG TSRA. MVFR. STRONG/GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WINDS.
* FRIDAY...DRY/VFR. STRONG/GUSTY WEST WINDS.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTH WINDS. LAKE BREEZE POSSIBLE.
* SUNDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
* MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. SOUTH WINDS.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
340 PM CDT
A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS UNDERWAY FOR LAKE MICHIGAN. AS OF
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES SOUTH OF THE
LAKE WHILE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO INTO
QUEBEC. BETWEEN THE FRONTAL TROUGH TO THE SOUTH LAKE AND THE HIGH
TO THE NORTH...PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT
WILL COVER THE LAKE...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE...LEADING TO THE FORMATION OF DENSE
FOG...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS WILL QUICKLY DEEPEN AND TRACK TO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN...FORCING THE STATIONARY FRONT NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM ELY-SELY TO SWLY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF THE WARM FRONT AND TEMPORARILY SUBSIDE...BUT A STRENGTHENING
GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL HELP STRENGTHEN
WINDS BACK TO 25 TO 30 KT. THE COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST FROM
THE FAST-MOVING LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LAKE ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE LAKE ON
SATURDAY...USHERING IN A PERIOD OF QUIETER WEATHER THAT SHOULD
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN UNTIL 5 AM
THURSDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
256 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
Latest surface analysis indicates the frontal boundary that was
holding stationary over south central Illinois has shifted further
north early this morning as a weak wave of low pressure was
approaching west central Illinois. Scattered convection has been
occurring north of the boundary over parts of east central Iowa
east into our far northern counties with some nickel hail reported
over the past hour around Lacon in Marshall county. We expect the
scattered convection to continue into the morning hours as the wave
rides east along the boundary. As the surface low shifts to our east
later this morning, there may actually be a southward push to the
front which is going to cause some significant problems with respect
to the afternoon temperatures, especially along and north of I-74.
The latest HRRR does indicate another weak wave forming to our west
along the boundary early this afternoon with another complex of
storms approaching west central IL. Not sure if this particular
complex of storms will ride along the boundary into central Illinois
or dive more southeast into the higher instability air mass south
of the front. POPs will increase again this afternoon in response to
this secondary wave approaching from the west. Severe potential
increases this afternoon thru this evening as the boundary gets
a push northward as the more significant shortwave pushes into the
Plains. With the warm front expected to edge across the area this
afternoon and evening, damaging wind gusts, large hail and isolated
tornadoes will all be possible. The tornado threat looks tied more
into areas along and just north of the warm front later this
afternoon and evening. Coolest temps north of I-74 where more of an
easterly flow will prevail, while south of the boundary, a blend of
the MET/MAV guid seems reasonable at this point.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
Severe weather threat through Thursday evening continues to dominate
the first part of the forecast. Current upper low moving into
northwest Nevada will open up but remain a fairly sharp wave as it
traverses the Plains on Thursday. This will help develop a surface
low over western Kansas this evening, which will surge northeast and
shove the frontal boundary back northward tonight. The trailing cold
front will sweep from west to east across the state Thursday evening
as a result.
Convection to our southwest expected to expand northeastward into
the mid-Mississippi Valley this evening. Latest SPC Day1 outlook
extended the slight risk across the entire CWA, with an enhanced
risk of severe storms from basically Springfield-Peoria westward.
This enhanced risk covers the entire area on Thursday, with
high-resolution models focusing on the mid-afternoon through early
evening time frame as the best potential in our area.
Short period of cooler and drier weather on tap for the first part
of the weekend, as high pressure drifts across the Midwest. However,
longer range models showing extended periods of rain chances early
next week. The GFS and ECMWF have a sizable range on the position
of a frontal boundary that will be setting up Sunday night and
Monday, both starting off roughly along I-70 but the GFS shows a
much stronger surge to the north by Tuesday. However, with both
favoring some sort of precip, have kept healthy rain chances in the
forecast for early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2015
A stationary front extending across central IL, just north of
I-70, is forecast to drift slowly northward overnight, in response
to the approach of a weakening low pressure center across
Missouri. The surface low and associated 500mb shortwave will help
trigger showers and storms in central IL the rest of the night.
A complex of storms has already developed west of PIA in SE Iowa.
The track of those storms looks to be just NW of PIA airport.
However, the HRRR and NCEP 4km WRF show additional development is
expected to the SE of the current storms. The new storms should
affect PIA and BMI between 07z and 12z, with the southern extend
possibly affecting the other terminal sites during that time.
SPI/DEC/CMI sites have returned to MVFR cloud heights. PIA/BMI
have remained LIFR due to 200ft cigs. BMI with vis now at 1/2sm FG.
Clouds are forecast to remain status quo for much of the night,
with some improvement as storms/showers pass near the terminals.
The weakening low pressure is still progged to advance across
central IL through early morning, dissipating before it reaches
Indiana. That will keep storm chances going through around 12z.
Additional storms are forecast to arrive tomorrow evening, per the
4km WRF.
ESE winds of 10-15kt will continue at 8-12kt overnight, with wind
directions highly dependent on how far north the stationary front
drifts by morning. Winds tomorrow morning could become variable
under the front, and eventually prevail from the N for PIA and
southwest for BMI/SPI/DEC/CMI. The GFS and NAM have differing wind
solutions, but went closer to the NAM with this set of TAFs.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1249 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
.UPDATE...
WE HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES TO CUT BACK ON POPS A BIT OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. CONVECTIVE TRENDS THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER NORTHEASTERN IOWA HAS
LARGELY SUGGESTED THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN RIGHT
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE ILLINOIS BOARDER IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
AS SUCH...I HAVE CUT POPS DOWN...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I88.
THE 00 UTC SOUNDING OUT OF KILX INDICATES SOME STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...BUT REMAINS CAPPED TO ELEVATED CONVECTION. THEREFORE...IN
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...THROUGH AT LEAST 06 UTC...IT APPEARS
UNLIKELY THAT ANY ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE CURRENT
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...SOME HIRES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS MY SOUTHERN CWA VERY LATE
TONIGHT IN CLOSER PROXIMATE TO THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SOME BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE LOW LEVEL
JET. CONFIDENCE IS NOT THE GREATEST THAT THIS WILL MATERIALIZE
HOWEVER...BUT IF ANY STORMS WERE TO DEVELOP...THE STEEP LAPSE RATES
COULD SUPPORT A SMALL HAIL THREAT. IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES FOR
THIS WILL BE AFTER 09 UTC THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
IT ALSO APPEARS THE MAIN THREAT FOR DENSE FOG MAY REMAIN IN CLOSER
PROXIMATE TO THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR SOUTH...WHERE DEW
POINTS ARE INTO THE 50S. THEREFORE...WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO BE FOG WITH 1 TO 3 SM VISIBILITIES OVER THE AREA...IT
APPEARS LESS LIKELY FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT OVER
FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
KJB
&&
.SHORT TERM...
327 PM CDT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
STRONG QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH
WARM AND HUMID AIR RESIDING SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH 60 DEGREE
DEWPOINTS BUTTING UP AGAINST OUR SOUTHERN MOST CWA BORDER. TO THE
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY YOU JUMP BACK A SEASON WITH BRISK NORTHEAST
WINDS AND CLOUDINESS HOLDING TEMPS IN THE 40S...EXCEPT NEAR THE LAKE
WHERE TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE UPPER 30S WITH SOME MARINE FOG. WEBCAMS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST DENSEST FOG IS RIGHT AT THE SHORE...THOUGH STILL
EXPECT THAT THIS FOG COULD BEGIN TO OOZE INLAND WITH TIME TONIGHT
AND POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY
WAVER AROUND A BIT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY CREEPING
NORTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN CWA AT TIMES WHICH WILL UNDOUBTEDLY CAUSE
HAVOC IN MAINTAINING HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS AND PLACES A HIGHER
DEGREE THAN NORMAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN HIGH AND LOW TEMP FORECAST THE
NEXT 36 HOURS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE MOVING EASTWARD
INTO THE WESTERN CORNBELT THIS AFTERNOON WITH WAA IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FEATURE RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE FARTHER
SOUTHWARD PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY AXIS I
SUSPECT THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO PROPAGATE/DEVELOP
SOUTHWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS EVENING
WITH THE NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. PWATS OF
AROUND 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL SUGGEST THAT ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP COULD BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. EXTRAPOLATION HAS
THAT SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST OF OUR AREA BY 06Z SUGGESTING MOST
ORGANIZED PRECIP SHOULD SHIFT EAST WITH IT THOUGH CONTINUED WAA
OVER TOP SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS DOES RAISE AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL OF
CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LINGERING MORE SHOWERS...MAINLY EASTERN
CWA...BUT OVERALL WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY OTHER THAN SOME POSSIBLE
DRIZZLE WITH THE THICKER FOG NEAR THE LAKE. NEXT SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED RAMPING OF LOW LEVEL JET/WAA LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WHEN ONCE AGAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY PRETTY DRY...SO
OTHER THAN URBAN AREAS OR REMOTE THREAT OF EXTREME RAINFALL TOTALS
THINK THE FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS LOOK NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE AT THIS
TIME.
IZZI
&&
.LONG TERM...
327 PM CDT
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
PRIMARY TROUGH IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD AND INTO
THE MIDWEST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE VARIES SOME WITH RESPECT
TO TIMING/INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM WITH 12Z ECMWF ON THE
FASTER/WEAKER END OF THE GUIDANCE SPECTRUM AND THE NAM/GEM ON THE
SLOWER DEEPER END OF THE SPECTRUM. OFTEN TIMES THE SLOWER GUIDANCE
ENDS UP VERIFYING BETTER WITH THESE STRONGER SYSTEMS...SO TRENDED
THE GRIDS TOWARD THE NAM/GEM SOLUTION. THE GFS SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF
STRONGER SYSTEM BUT SUSPECT IT IS A BIT TOO FAST.
SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND EVOLUTION OF THIS
CYCLONE CONTINUE TO RAISE RED FLAGS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IN THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE KINEMATIC FIELDS ARE EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE WITH 90-
100KT UPPER LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
40KT+ LOW LEVEL JET RESULTING IN VERY FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR WHICH
WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE MAGNITUDE OF A TORNADO THREAT VARIES
DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. THE DEEPER SOLUTIONS HAVE A MORE BACKED
SURFACE FLOW AND LARGER LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND WOULD BE MUCH MORE
WORRISOME REGARDING TORNADO THREAT.
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS THIS MORNING ALSO SUGGEST AN UNUSUALLY
IMPRESSIVE PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR SO FAR EASTWARD
BECOME JUXTAPOSED OVER TOP A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS LIKELY IN THE 60S WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. GIVEN THE
PROGGED INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM SUSPECT THAT EVEN MORNING CONVECTION
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE WARM FRONT FROM BLASTING NORTH AND
PLACING ENTIRE CWA IN THE HUMID/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR BY AFTERNOON.
OBVIOUSLY THERE ARE A TON OF MESOSCALE DETAILS THAT CANNOT BE
RESOLVED AT THIS DISTANCE...INCLUDING STORM MODE AND COVERAGE. THERE
IS A LOT THAT CAN CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THURSDAY SO A SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS FAR FROM A SURE THING...BUT GIVEN THE TRENDS
IN MODEL GUIDANCE AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN THERE IS DEFINITELY REASON
FOR CONCERN ABOUT THE SEVERE WEATHER AND TORNADO POTENTIAL THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COOLER/DRIER PACIFIC AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FRIDAY ON BRISK
WESTERLY WINDS...FOLLOWED BY A MODERATING TREND HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH LOOKS TO ARRIVE LATE
SUNDAY OR MONDAY WITH OUR NEXT SHOT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* IFR/LIFR THRU THE PERIOD.
* EASTERLY WINDS THRU THE PERIOD.
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT THRU MID MORNING...LOW CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.
* SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST IA WILL MOVE GENERALLY
EAST INTO WEST CENTRAL IL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SHORT TERM/HI
RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS ACTIVITY REMAINING MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS AND SLOWLY WEAKENING TOWARD SUNRISE WITH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN IL AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA...WITH SHOWERS OR POSSIBLE DRIZZLE FURTHER NORTH.
CONFIDENCE OF TSRA AT THE TERMINALS IS LOW ENOUGH TO REMOVE
MENTION OTHER THAN VICINITY AT GYY BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED EARLY THIS MORNING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE THRU THE DAY BUT GENERALLY SOUTH OF
THE TERMINALS SO HAVE MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE...PERHAPS IN A COUPLE OF WAVES...THRU THURSDAY MORNING.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE SO INCLUDED VICINITY MENTION BUT LOW CONFIDENCE
FOR TIMING/DURATION.
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED EAST/SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD
GRADUALLY TURN BACK EASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY
LATER THIS MORNING. SPEEDS ARE BIT UNCERTAIN AS GUIDANCE SUGGEST
SPEEDS COULD DIMINISH UNDER 10KTS BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
LOWER PREVAILING SPEEDS JUST YET. WINDS WILL TURN BACK MORE EAST
OR SOUTHEAST LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THEN LIKELY SHIFT
SOUTHERLY BY THURSDAY MORNING.
IFR/LIFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU THE PERIOD...PERHAPS
LOWERING A BIT TOWARD SUNRISE WITH VISIBILITIES ALSO LOWERING. ITS
POSSIBLE CIGS MAY LIFT TO LOWER MVFR THIS AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH FOR IFR/LIFR THRU THE PERIOD.
* MEDIUM FOR WINDS THRU THE PERIOD.
* MEDIUM FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...LOW FOR INTENSITY/DURATION. LOW
FOR CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD DAYBREAK.
* MEDIUM FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...LOW ON TIMING/DURATION. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* THURSDAY...STRONG TSRA. MVFR. STRONG/GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WINDS.
* FRIDAY...DRY/VFR. STRONG/GUSTY WEST WINDS.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTH WINDS. LAKE BREEZE POSSIBLE.
* SUNDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
* MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. SOUTH WINDS.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
340 PM CDT
A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS UNDERWAY FOR LAKE MICHIGAN. AS OF
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES SOUTH OF THE
LAKE WHILE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO INTO
QUEBEC. BETWEEN THE FRONTAL TROUGH TO THE SOUTH LAKE AND THE HIGH
TO THE NORTH...PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT
WILL COVER THE LAKE...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE...LEADING TO THE FORMATION OF DENSE
FOG...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS WILL QUICKLY DEEPEN AND TRACK TO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN...FORCING THE STATIONARY FRONT NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM ELY-SELY TO SWLY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF THE WARM FRONT AND TEMPORARILY SUBSIDE...BUT A STRENGTHENING
GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL HELP STRENGTHEN
WINDS BACK TO 25 TO 30 KT. THE COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST FROM
THE FAST-MOVING LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LAKE ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE LAKE ON
SATURDAY...USHERING IN A PERIOD OF QUIETER WEATHER THAT SHOULD
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN
UNTIL 5 AM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1159 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2015
The stationary front is not making much progress northward yet
this evening. The latest sfc analysis shows the front still
lingering between I-72 and I-70 at 02z/9pm. Minor clearing has
developed toward SPI and Jacksonville, but the last hour clouds
have begun to re-develop in response to an inversion and trapped
low level moisture. Have continued with including fog along and
north of I-74 the rest of the night, with some dense fog ongoing
around BMI.
Low pressure is expected to advance along the front tonight,
helping to give it a northward push. Showers and storms should
accompany the arrival of the low, with the help of a 500mb
shortwave and increasing instability. Storms will increase in
coverage from west to east after 06z/1am. The storms will be
elevated, so hail will be more of a concern than very strong wind
gusts. No severe storms are anticipated with the wave of storms
later tonight, as the overall system dynamics will be weakening
with time as it moves across Illinois.
Forecast updates included: delaying the onset of precip for a few
more hours, diminished PoPs NW of the IL river late tonight,
adjusted hourly temps to try to match expected frontal boundary
movement northward. Updated forecast info is already available.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2015
A quasi stationary front remains over central IL between I-70 and
I-72. The frontal boundary should start to slowly push back
northward across central IL later this evening and overnight as 1007
mb low pressure over northeast KS tracks into central IL by Wed
morning. An MCS was bringing showers and a few thunderstorms to
southeast IL at mid afternoon while the strong to severe storms with
heavy rains were south of highway 50 and approaching the Ohio river
as they tracked eastward. pushes southward, wavering over central
Illinois, southerly flow will continue to bring in more boundary
layer moisture. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop
during tonight along this boundary over central IL as low pressure
approaches and frontal boundary starts to lift back north with ample
moisture. Some fog still lingering north of I-72 and added some fog
to areas north of this boundary tonight especially from I-74
northward. Lows tonight mostly in the upper 50s and lower 60s,
except cooler low to mid 50s from Galesburg to Peoria and
Bloomington northward which stays north of the boundary much of the
night.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2015
Not too much has changed in the large scale pattern/expected weather
over the next few days. However, things will continue to be tricky
with respect to the convective details and temperatures due to the
wobbling surface boundary and model disagreement in the ultimate
strength of the main low/frontal passage for Thursday.
The frontal boundary that currently lies west-east across the
Midwest will not move appreciably through Wednesday. Nearly
continuous WAA/isentropic ascent is progged through a deep layer
across the area until the main system arrives heading into Wednesday
night. Until the system approaches, forecast soundings (and 12Z KILX
sounding for that matter) suggest a persistent elevated mixed layer,
but also a fairly stout low level capping inversion. Moisture
continues to be lacking within the EML, so PoPs will stay on the
lower side for most of Wednesday.
The remnants of the Pacific Coast will help force the frontal
boundary back northward Wednesday night as it pushes across the
Plains. This will spread more widespread showers/storms across the
area as early as late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.
There will be ample shear for some of the storms to be on the
stronger side, but they should be elevated in nature for the most
part and most apt to be hail producers.
The main low/cold front are still on tap to cross the region
Thursday into Thursday evening, although there are still
considerable timing/strength differences. The ECMWF continues to be
much weaker and (not surprisingly) several hours slower than the
building model consensus. Do not have a compelling reason to
disregard the ECMWF, but have leaned more toward the larger model
consensus. This scenario supports strong/severe storms across the
forecast area along/ahead of the front on Thursday, mainly during
the afternoon. Instability and shear profiles are both expected to
be more than respectable, with CAPE values averaging 1500-2500 j/kg,
and bulk shear values from 35-45 kts.
The cold front is expected to clear most of the area by late
Thursday evening, ushering in quieter weather until Sunday. Then,
another storm system will bring renewed shower/storm chances to
start out next week. However, model spread and run-to-run
consistency in the details continues to be poor at best. This is
resulting in an extended period of PoPs from what should only be one
system passage. Hopefully a better agreed upon solution develops
soon.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2015
A stationary front extending across central IL, just north of
I-70, is forecast to drift slowly northward overnight, in response
to the approach of a weakening low pressure center across
Missouri. The surface low and associated 500mb shortwave will help
trigger showers and storms in central IL the rest of the night.
A complex of storms has already developed west of PIA in SE Iowa.
The track of those storms looks to be just NW of PIA airport.
However, the HRRR and NCEP 4km WRF show additional development is
expected to the SE of the current storms. The new storms should
affect PIA and BMI between 07z and 12z, with the southern extend
possibly affecting the other terminal sites during that time.
SPI/DEC/CMI sites have returned to MVFR cloud heights. PIA/BMI
have remained LIFR due to 200ft cigs. BMI with vis now at 1/2sm FG.
Clouds are forecast to remain status quo for much of the night,
with some improvement as storms/showers pass near the terminals.
The weakening low pressure is still progged to advance across
central IL through early morning, dissipating before it reaches
Indiana. That will keep storm chances going through around 12z.
Additional storms are forecast to arrive tomorrow evening, per the
4km wrf.
ESE winds of 10-15kt will continue at 8-12kt overnight, with wind
directions highly dependent on how far north the stationary front
drifts by morning. Winds tomorrow morning could become variable
under the front, and eventually prevail from the N for PIA and
southwest for BMI/SPI/DEC/CMI. The GFS and NAM have differing wind
solutions, but went closer to the NAM with this set of TAFs.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
817 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 816 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
SOME STORMS THIS EVENING COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL
PRIMARILY BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER...IN THE
MIDDLE 50S TO AROUND 60.
&&
.UPDATE/AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
18Z RAOB OUT OF KILX INDICATES CURRENT CONV PROB ATTM W/CAPPING
INVERSION ARND H85 AND NO DOUBT EXACERBATED BY SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCD/W SW TROUGH OVERHEAD. EXTENT/DURATION OF POPS THIS EVENING
AHD OF STG CDFNT SWEEPING EWD OUT OF WRN IL PROBLEMATIC IN LIGHT
OF LIMITED UPSTREAM DVLPMNT SO FAR AND LACK OF LARGER SCALE
ORGANIZATION. LATEST NR TERM AND 18Z GUIDANCE TEPID AT BEST AND
SUGGESTIVE OF TEMPERING PRIOR CAT MENTION. REGARDLESS COOLING
ALOFT SPREAD EWD OVERTOP FNTL ZONE IN TANDEM W/RAMPING LLJ SHLD
PREDICATE MORE ERSTWHILE DVLPMNT THOUGH MID EVENING AS CONVN
SLIDES EWD INTO WRN ZONES.
GENERAL VFR CONDS XPCD THIS PD ALTHOUGH TRANSIENT PD OF MVFR CIGS
PSBL ASSUMING SHRA/VCTS HOLD ALG FNTL BNDRY. BIGGER ISSUE WILL BE
POST FNTL GRADIENT WINDS W/LL CAA SURGE AND INCOMING MID LVL DRY
SLOT. XPC A PD OF SFC GUSTS OF 35-40 KTS IN 09-15Z WINDOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
MULTIPLE CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO RIPPLE THROUGH
THE REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF MAIN TROUGH AXIS STILL WELL TO
OUR WEST. THIS HAS LED TO A MUDDLED MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF WEAK/ELEVATED CONVECTION SO FAR TODAY. DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION HAS BEEN SLOW GIVEN ABUNDANT RAIN AND STRATUS.
STARTED TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING THE LAST COUPLE
HOURS BUT STILL A LOT OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TO INHIBIT SURFACE
DIABATIC HEATING. LATEST RAP/SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS BETTER SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY JUST NOW STARTING TO NOSE INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN
CWA AS WARM FRONT IS PUSHED NORTHWARD BY STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW BUT RAP SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A
SUBTLE 700-800MB INVERSION OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON. TWO FEATURES TO WATCH FOR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS
EVENING...ONE IS A SUBTLE PREFRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY PUSHING
THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SECOND IS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT
ITSELF...STILL IN CENTRAL MISSOURI. FORCING IS WEAK WITH THE FIRST
WAVE BUT APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TO GENERATE AROUND
1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE OVER ILLINOIS. THERE IS HOWEVER A LOCAL MINIMUM
OF INSTABILITY SEEN ON RAP/SPC MESOANALYSIS OVER WESTERN INDIANA.
RAP SUGGESTS INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA WILL FILL IN OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND IF THE CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS CAN LATCH
ONTO THAT...IT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER IN OUR
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING IS LOW
THOUGH...GIVEN NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF STORMS CURRENTLY ON RADAR
AND RELATIVELY DIFFUSE FORCING. STORMS MAY CLIP OUR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES BUT DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE LEFT BY
THAT POINT. SPC HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH RIGHT UP TO OUR WESTERN
BORDER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLUSTER OF STORMS UPSTREAM DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO SEE IF A LOCAL EXTENSION MAY BE NECESSARY BUT
FOR NOW THREAT APPEARS LOW. POTENTIAL THREAT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
FALL IN THE 22-00Z TIMEFRAME WITH THE MAIN HAZARD BEING DAMAGING
WINDS.
SECOND FEATURE TO WATCH IS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT. THIS FEATURE WILL
NOT ARRIVE UNTIL 03-04Z TONIGHT AND BY THEN WE LOSE ANY SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MODEST...AROUND 7
C/KM...BUT NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. SOME DAMAGING WINDS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN
VERY STRONG LLJ WITH 850MB WINDS OVER 50 KTS BUT WILL BE CONTINGENT
UPON GETTING A SUSTAINED UPDRAFT AND ADEQUATE PRECIP LOADING. THAT
IS QUESTIONABLE AT THIS POINT. THREAT IS CERTAINLY THERE BUT IS
CONDITIONAL ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY IS LEFT BY THE TIME IT REACHES
US. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR UPSTREAM TRENDS CLOSELY THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO UPDATE THE FORECAST AS NECESSARY.
UPDATED GRIDS/ZFP WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE HIGH WINDS ON FRIDAY...
THE SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ACTIVE WEATHER TODAY
WILL HAVE MADE ITS WAY INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS PUTS THE CWA LARGELY IN THE DRY SLOT AND IN THE REGION
OF CAA. ALOFT...A CLOSED 500MB LOW LIFTS FROM UPPER MICHIGAN FRIDAY
MORNING TO JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH A STRONG
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND STATES...A 100 KT 500MB
JET DEVELOPS OVER THE CWA AND REMAINS THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS...IT APPEARS WE WILL BE MIXING
TO NEAR 900MB EARLIER IN THE DAY...THEN UP AS HIGH AS 700-750MB BY
MID AFTERNOON. THINKING GUSTS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON
THEN TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM AND SFC
PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. THINKING GUSTS TO
35-45 MPH ARE LIKELY GIVEN MIXING POTENTIAL TOMORROW...BUT WILL HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING ANY WIND ADVISORIES FOR NOW...AS WE ARE RIGHT BELOW
CRITERIA AND DO NOT WANT TO DETRACT PUBLIC ATTENTION AWAY FROM THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. KEPT THE GOING
HEADLINE FOR THE GALE WARNING UNTIL 15Z...AS CONDITIONS ARE MORE
STABLE OVER THE LAKE.
OTHERWISE...SHORTWAVE/PV ANOMALY ROTATING AROUND THE EXITING LOW
PRESSURE MAY BRING ADDITIONAL LL MOISTURE FORCING FOR RAIN SHOWERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
CWA. MODELS WERE IN GREAT DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE
WAVE...SO FOR NOW KEPT JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS/RAIN SHOWERS FOR NOW.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVERHEAD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL...WITH
HIGHS AGAIN STRUGGLING TO REACH ABOVE THE LOW 60S.
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...500MB FLOW IS SOMEWHAT SPLIT BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
UPPER MI/NORTHERN LOWER MI THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN A DEVELOPING
CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. TAKES SHAPE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUE AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER OUR CWA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE
LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TUE NIGHT INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL
PLAINS BEFORE PHASING INTO THE NORTHERN BRANCH WED.
FOR OUR CWA...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IN
ONTARIO/UPPER MI. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS BRING THE FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THOUGH THEY DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO EXACT
TIMING AND STRENGTH. AS USUAL...THE GFS IS FASTER AND SLIGHTLY
DEEPER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH...AND THUS THE
FRONT IS MORE ORGANIZED. THE ECMWF SHOWS A WEAKER UL TROUGH AND
CORRESPONDING SFC SYSTEM/COLD FRONT. KEPT CONSENSUS POPS FOR
NOW...WHICH DID A DECENT JOB SHOWING THE OVERALL TREND. TUESDAY
LOOKS TO REMAIN LARGELY QUIET...WITH SMALL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.
OF COURSE...THE PHASING SYSTEMS/STREAMS ARE A COMPLETE MESS IN THE
MODEL WORLD...WITH A WHOLE HOST OF SOLUTIONS THAT COULD PLAY OUT
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. JUST KEPT THE CONSENSUS POPS AND OUR
FORECASTED THUNDER AS THERE IS TOO MUCH DISAGREEMENT TO MAKE ANY
REAL IMPROVEMENTS. GOOD NEWS IS...TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S AND
LOW 70S FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...T
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...T/MURPHY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
400 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1003 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
SEVERAL PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. A STATIONARY FRONT OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND
OHIO IS EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT TODAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BECOMING NUMEROUS TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON THURSDAY LIKELY CAUSING ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S NORTH OF THE FRONT IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE LOW 70S
SOUTH OF THE FRONT SOUTH OF US 30. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015
BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL MIXING IS CURRENTLY IN
PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA THANKS TO MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
RIDGING/AVA IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING`S CONVECTION. MCS THAT MOVED
THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA EARLIER TODAY SEEMS TO HAVE LEFT MOST OF OUR
AREA FAIRLY STABLE/CAPPED PER LATEST SPC/RAP MESOANALYSIS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A DECENT INVERSION AROUND 800MB...EVEN IN AREAS THAT
HAVE MANAGED TO MIX OUT. NAM12 TRIES TO WEAKEN THIS CAPPING
INVERSION IN OUR AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT RAP AND GFS KEEP IT
IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING...AT LEAST OUTSIDE OF THE FAR
SOUTH. BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR...SATELLITE...AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...PREFER TO LEAN TOWARD THE RAP IDEA OF
KEEPING OUR CWA MAINLY CAPPED WITH CONVECTION TIED TO BETTER
INSTABILITY JUST TO OUR SOUTH. SYNOPTIC FORCING IS PRETTY MUDDLED
AT THIS POINT BUT THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF MODEST 300K ISENTROPIC
ASCENT JUST TO OUR SOUTH AS WELL. SPC HAS ISSUED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH UP TO OUR SOUTHWEST BORDER AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. CURRENTLY WATCHING A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER EASTERN
ILLINOIS THAT COULD SCRAPE OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. IF THIS
ACTIVITY DOES CLIP OUR AREA...IT COULD VERY WELL PRODUCE SEVERE
WEATHER GIVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER 40 KTS AND MLCAPE VALUES OVER
2000 J/KG DUE TO MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8 C/KM.
BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
LATE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK/EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT NORTHEAST
ALONG WITH NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. ANOTHER
ROUND OF INCREASED MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT
IN A REGION OF MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT EXPANDING
CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT. EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION IS DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT AT THIS STAGE WITH A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS BEING OFFERED BY
LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE. AM A LITTLE UNEASY WITH INHERITED
CATEGORICAL POPS GIVEN DRY SOLUTIONS BEING OFFERED BY SOME HI-RES
GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE 4KM SPC WRF-NMM. LOWERED POPS EARLIER IN THE
PERIOD BUT DID KEEP SOME CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE 09-12Z PERIOD OUT
OF RESPECT FOR THE INCREASING WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION AND MODEL
DEPICTIONS OF WEAK CVA FORCING.
OTHER ASPECT THAT DEMANDS SOME ATTENTION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN/FLOODING WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION THIS WEEK. PW
VALUES DO SURGE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES LATE TONIGHT (AND INTO
TOMORROW) AND HEAVY RAIN WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE WHEN/WHERE
CONVECTION DOES OCCUR. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING AND
BACKBUILDING CONVECTION IS LOW IN OUR AREA WITH RELATIVELY HIGH MBE
VELOCITIES AND THE FACT THAT STORM MOTION BECOMES A LITTLE MORE
ORTHOGONAL TO THE FRONT BY TOMORROW. OUTSIDE OF OUR FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES...MOST OF THE CWA HAS ALSO NOT RECEIVED A LARGE AMOUNT OF
RAIN RECENTLY. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING DOES
EXIST BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY TYPE OF WATCH
HEADLINE AT THIS POINT. AGAIN THE HIGHEST THREAT WILL BE IN OUR FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015
PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.
ALOFT...A DEEP 500MB TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST...TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT OVER
IA/IL AS IT ATTEMPTS TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE FIRMLY ANCHORED OVER
THE EAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS CLOSE THE LOW THU EVE BEFORE
LIFTING IT INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING AND TRAVEL NORTHEASTWARD INTO
SOUTHWESTERN IOWA BY 12Z THU. AS THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW APPROACHES
THE LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN...INTENSIFYING THE WARM AIR/MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVER THE CWA OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY.
AS A RESULT...THE CWA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR FROM LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL...WITH PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 1.4 INCHES
EARLY THU AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS DECENT...WITH LI VALUES RANGING
FROM -5 TO -2/SFC BASED CAPE AS HIGH AS 1500 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON.
0-6KM SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT PALTRY AT FIRST...AROUND 20-30 KNOTS...BUT
PICKS UP TO AROUND 40-50 KNOTS TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. SHOWER/T-STORM ACTIVITY FROM THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH MODELS SUPPORTING SHOWER/T-STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
STATIONARY/WARM FRONT THAT LIFTS NORTHWARD WITH THE BOUNDARY THROUGH
THE MORNING. SEVERE POTENTIAL EARLIER IN THE DAY WILL BE
LIMITED...WITH MORE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE...AND WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS...HEAVY
RAIN IS A THREAT. FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT SEE HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE FORECAST TO INTIATE WITH THE COLD FRONT
OVER THE IL AREA BY THU AFTERNOON...WHERE FRONT TIMING IS MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WX...DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT THESE
STORMS TO CROSS INTO OUR WESTERN CWA WITH THE FRONT BY THURSDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUE GENERALLY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THINKING THE
00-05Z TIME PERIOD IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL WILL BE THE BEST SHOT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...WHEN ALL SVR T-STORM INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER FOR
A BRIEF TIME. PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES GIVEN 0-1
KM SHEAR GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS FROM 00-05Z. THINKING THAT THE
BIGGEST LIMITATION WITH THIS OVERALL SCENARIO IS
INSTABILITY...MODELS TEND TO OVERDO IT IN GENERAL. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY TRUE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MORNING
CONVECTION...AND THE LATE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT/MAJOR FORCING.
TOOK A LOOK AT THE SHERB PARAMETER WHICH HAS SHOWN SOME SKILL IN
EVALUATING HSLC ENVIRONMENTS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...AND VALUES WERE
OVER 1-WHICH SUGGESTS A MORE SIGNIFICANT EVENT IS POSSIBLE.
AFTER 03Z HOWEVER...INSTABILITY REALLY BEGINS TO WANE...AND DRIER
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT QUICKLY INFILTRATES THE AREA. WOULD EXPECT ALL
MEASURABLE PRECIP TO EXIT THE CWA BY 15Z FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.
A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD FROM WI. MODELS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTHERN LOWER
MI...BUT THESE WILL BE LIMITED AT BEST. WINDS SHOULD GET GUSTY
FRIDAY THOUGH...WITH A DECENT PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET CROSSING
THE CWA FRIDAY INTO FRI NIGHT.
ALL GOES QUIET AGAIN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO/UPPER MI/NORTHERN WI SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
HUDSON BAY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT AND
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
AROUND THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD...WEAKENING AS IT LIFTS TOWARDS THE
OHIO VALLEY TUE AND WED. THIS WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
FRAME...MAINLY IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015
SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY
PROVIDING A BREAK IN PRECIP ALONG WITH AN AREA OF VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. PRECIP AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN
TONIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA AND THE
LLJ RAMPS UP. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IS LOW AT THIS POINT AND WILL DEPEND ON HOW CONVECTION UPSTREAM
UNFOLDS. HELD WITH INHERITED BROAD BRUSH VCTS MENTION BUT SHOULD BE
ABLE TO NARROW DOWN AND REFINE THAT TIMING LATER THIS EVENING.
CONVECTION MAY PERSIST/RE-DEVELOP AFTER 12Z TOMORROW BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...AGD
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
201 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1003 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
SEVERAL PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. A STATIONARY FRONT OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND
OHIO IS EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT TODAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BECOMING NUMEROUS TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON THURSDAY LIKELY CAUSING ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S NORTH OF THE FRONT IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE LOW 70S
SOUTH OF THE FRONT SOUTH OF US 30. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
THE CLOUDY...COOL PATTERN CONTINUES AS WE MAINTAIN OUR POSITION
NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE HAS TRIGGERED SOME
CONVECTION IN SE IOWA/ WESTERN ILLINOIS JUST NORTH OF THIS
STATIONARY FRONT. THE STORMS SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING WITH EASTWARD
EXTENT...LIKELY DUE TO A SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAP AT 650MB AND LESS
INFLUENCE FROM THE MID LEVEL WAVE. GIVEN THE REMAINING UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD...HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE.
EXPECT A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON ON TODAY
AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO
EJECT OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A LONG
AWAITED SHIFT NORTHWARD IN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS PSEUDO WARM
FRONTAL SURGE WILL CREATE SIGNIFICANT BUST POTENTIAL FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TODAY. AREAS SOUTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT WILL
LIKELY WARM INTO THE LOW 70S WITH AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT REMAINING
IN THE MID 50S. THE EXACT PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT NORTHWARD WILL
DICTATE EXACTLY WHO SEES THE WARMER TEMPERATURES...BUT THE LATEST
HIRES GUIDANCE PUTS THE MAX NORTHWARD PROGRESSION RIGHT ALONG US30.
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONT...ITS PRESENCE
ACROSS OUR AREA MEANS WE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE
IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY WRT TIMING OF STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. NAM
AND RAP HAVE A DECENT SHORTWAVE SPAWNING STORMS NORTH OF SAINT LOUIS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MOVING THAT MCS THROUGH OUR AREA AROUND
00Z. ONLY GLOBAL GUIDANCE WHICH EVEN HINTS AT A WAVE MOVING THROUGH
AT THAT TIME IS THE GEM AND THEREFORE GLOBAL GUIDANCE HOLDS OFF ON
CONVECTION UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. IR SATELLITE DOES SHOW SOME COOLER
CLOUD TOPS IN SW KANSAS WHERE THIS SW IS CURRENTLY SUPPOSED TO
BE...SO AM INCLINED TO BELIEVE THE HIRES GUIDANCE AND DISCOUNT THE
GLOBAL GUIDANCE AS LACKING THE RESOLUTION TO PROPERLY RESOLVE THIS
WAVE. SEVERE RISK DOES EXIST WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP IN THIS
AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME GIVEN 40 TO 50 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
1500 TO 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE SOUTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT. EVEN IF THE
EARLY EVENING STORM DEVELOPMENT ON THE HIRES GUIDANCE DOESN`T
MATERIALIZE...THERE WILL STILL BE AN ISOLATED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GIVEN THE ~2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND 30
KNOT LLJ WITH THE REMAINING PRESENCE OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
PRIMARY CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM WILL CENTER ON CONVECTIVE/SEVERE
POTENTIAL THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY RENEWED PRECIP
CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING AS UPPER JET
STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL JET ENCROACHES ON THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. AXIS OF 40-50 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW NOSING INTO
THE AREA BY MIDDAY WILL ALLOW FOR APPRECIABLE LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT NOSE OF STRONGER LOW
LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW POCKET OF PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES TO TRACK
ACROSS FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING WITH AMPLE ELEVATED MOISTURE
FOR SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER. POTENTIAL OF SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL APPEARS TO BE INTACT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FORCING ALONG WITH POTENTIAL OF SOME HAIL
GIVEN ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING/WBZ ZERO
HEIGHTS BETWEEN 9-10K FT.
SOME DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS ON INSTABILITY MAGNITUDES
DURING PEAK HEATING. ATTENTION FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL
SHIFT UPSTREAM TO MORE ROBUST EASTERN PACIFIC WAVE WHICH SHOULD
ACQUIRE NEGATIVE TILT ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
EVENING. FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND LEADING EDGE OF MID LEVEL DRY SLOT
SHOULD REGENERATE POTENTIALLY VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS ILLINOIS DURING THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY TRACKING INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF LOCAL AREA THURSDAY EVENING. EXTENT OF ANY
THINNING CLOUD COVER THURSDAY AFTERNOON/LOW LEVEL TEMP TRENDS WILL
HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON INSTABILITY MAGNITUDES. GIVEN STRENGTH OF
BACKGROUND WIND FIELDS...A WIND THREAT MAY EVOLVE THURSDAY EVENING
EVEN IF AFTERNOON INSTABILITY RECOVERY IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. AS
MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST...A SOMEWHAT HIGHER SEVERE THREAT MAY
UNFOLD IF GREATER LATE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED GIVEN
SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR PROFILES...AND IN LIGHT OF DIFFERENTIAL
MOISTURE ADVECTION IMMEDIATELY PRECEDING SFC FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRY SLOT. SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK HAS MAINTAINED HIGHER
SVR PROBS ACROSS WESTERN THIRD/HALF OF AREA...WITH POSSIBILITY OF
WEAK NEAR SFC DIURNAL COOLING LATER THURSDAY EVENING DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY MAGNITUDES A BIT ACROSS THE EAST. ONLY TWEAK TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST WAS TO SLIGHTLY SPEED UP TIMING OF WEST TO EAST POP
REDUCTION LATER THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING COLD FRONT PROGRESSION.
DID MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN SHOWER POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH/FAR
EAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING GIVEN LINGERING MID/UPPER FORCING WITH A
SERIES OF SMALLER SCALE WAVES ROTATING THROUGH LONGWAVE TROUGH...BUT
ADDITIONAL PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD BE QUITE
LIGHT. BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH DEEPER POST
FRONTAL MIXING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. IT STILL APPEARS AS
THOUGH THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY WITH
NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS UNDER INFLUENCE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.
LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO DEPART TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ALLOWING FOR A FAIRLY QUICK TRANSITION TO STRONGER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOR MONDAY. GOOD MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND
APPROACH OF CUT-OFF SOUTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY FOR TUE/WED SHOULD
KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THIS WAVE EVENTUALLY DAMPENS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS PATTERN
WILL ALSO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SHARPLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015
SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY
PROVIDING A BREAK IN PRECIP ALONG WITH AN AREA OF VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. PRECIP AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN
TONIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA AND THE
LLJ RAMPS UP. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IS LOW AT THIS POINT AND WILL DEPEND ON HOW CONVECTION UPSTREAM
UNFOLDS. HELD WITH INHERITED BROAD BRUSH VCTS MENTION BUT SHOULD BE
ABLE TO NARROW DOWN AND REFINE THAT TIMING LATER THIS EVENING.
CONVECTION MAY PERSIST/RE-DEVELOP AFTER 12Z TOMORROW BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...BENTLEY
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...AGD
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1257 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1028 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION THANKS TO STABILIZATION FROM
THIS MORNINGS SYSTEM. HOWEVER THE HRRR REINTRODUCES PRECIPITATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A WARM HUMID FLOW CONTINUES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. ALSO...BASED ON WHAT WE SEE IN ILLINOIS THERE MAY WELL
BE SOME BREAKS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD LEAD TO RAPID
DESTABILIZATION.
ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...LIKELY POPS SEEM BEST OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA
MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AND OVER THE ENTIRE CWA BY LATER AFTERNOON.
FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY MIGHT BE TOO HIGH. HOWEVER WITH EVEN
A FEW BREAKS THE THERMOMETER WILL ROCKET UP. HIGHS FROM THE EARLIER
FORECAST WILL BE KEPT IN THE UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
SURFACE WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
TONIGHT...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR THE FRONT TO SAG BACK TO THE SOUTH
TEMPORARILY. MODELS SUGGEST A STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET...ON THE ORDER
OF AROUND 40 KTS...WILL BE NOSING TOWARDS WESTERN INDIANA LATE
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...THINK THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
HIGHER TONIGHT. WILL GO WITH HIGH POPS OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ZONES...TAPERING OFF TO CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTH. LAPSE
RATES AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORMS TONIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH POPS ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS
PROGGED LOW LEVEL JET OF 45-50 KTS INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. MAY BE A LULL IN THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOCAL AREA GETS
FURTHER INTO THE WARM SECTOR BEFORE COLD FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY
EVENING...BUT WON/T GET TOO DETAILED IN THE TIMING AT THIS POINT.
APPEARS DEEP SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE CORE OF THE MID LEVEL JET APPROACHES. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRONTAL SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH OFF TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY MORNING TO GO
DRY FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS SUGGEST THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
IN THE LATER PERIODS LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS POINT...ALTHOUGH THE
LOWS FRIDAY MORNING LOOK TOO WARM IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
WILL LOWER THEM ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES IN THAT PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
DRY PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE IN
THE PROCESS OF MOVING AWAY TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY...WITH RIDGING
ALOFT AND WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S SATURDAY WILL WARM
PRIMARILY INTO THE 60S FOR SUNDAY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN RETURNS FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE EXTENDED.
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXPANDING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SERVE TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE BY LATE WEEKEND WITH
MOISTURE INCREASING AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN COUNTIES
WITH MORE EXTENSIVE PRECIP COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM TAPS
INTO A GULF MOISTURE FETCH. FAST MOVING UPPER LOW TRACKING WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL JET WILL MOVE FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA EARLY SUNDAY INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE MONDAY WITH SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS BY MONDAY
NIGHT. WARM FRONT SETS UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AND WILL PROMOTE ANOTHER PERIOD WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SURFACE WAVE TRACKS INTO THE REGION BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK.
HIGHS WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN THE 60S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
CLOUDS AND RAINFALL LIKELY TO LIMIT TEMP RISES.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 081800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015
HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST. MORNING CONVECTION HAS LAID DOWN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHILE SOUTHWEST FLOW PUMPING WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR TOWARD TAF SITES HAS RESULTED IN MVFR DECK 1500-2000 FT.
THINKING IS THIS SITUATION IS WARM FRONTAL LIKE AND AS BOUNDARY
PUSHES BACK NORTHEAST AND SUN CONTINUE WORKING ON CLOUDS THIS MVFR
DECK SHOULD SCATTER TO A LAYER AROUND 2500 FEET.
OTHER FACTOR IS THE CIRRUS DEBRIS FROM MISSOURI STORMS HAS
OVERSPREAD INDIANA AND ILLINOIS AND SERVING TO LIMIT CUMULUS GROWTH.
CERTAINLY SURFACE BOUNDARIES AVAILABLE TO HELP WITH LIFT BUT MOST
MODELS KEY ON NEXT UPPER SUPPORT ARRIVING AFTER 090600Z. THUS ANY
CONVECTION PRIOR WILL BE ISOLATED OR SCATTERED...FOCUSED ON MESO
BOUNDARY AND DRIVEN BY WHAT HEATING MAY OCCUR TODAY. ANTICIPATE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WITH WIDESPREAD STORMS TO ARRIVE AFTER
090600Z WITH UPPER SUPPORT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...TUCEK
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1029 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1028 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION THANKS TO STABILIZATION FROM
THIS MORNINGS SYSTEM. HOWEVER THE HRRR REINTRODUCES PRECIPITATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A WARM HUMID FLOW CONTINUES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. ALSO...BASED ON WHAT WE SEE IN ILLINOIS THERE MAY WELL
BE SOME BREAKS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD LEAD TO RAPID
DESTABILIZATION.
ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...LIKELY POPS SEEM BEST OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA
MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AND OVER THE ENTIRE CWA BY LATER AFTERNOON.
FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY MIGHT BE TOO HIGH. HOWEVER WITH EVEN
A FEW BREAKS THE THERMOMETER WILL ROCKET UP. HIGHS FROM THE EARLIER
FORECAST WILL BE KEPT IN THE UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
SURFACE WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
TONIGHT...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR THE FRONT TO SAG BACK TO THE SOUTH
TEMPORARILY. MODELS SUGGEST A STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET...ON THE ORDER
OF AROUND 40 KTS...WILL BE NOSING TOWARDS WESTERN INDIANA LATE
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...THINK THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
HIGHER TONIGHT. WILL GO WITH HIGH POPS OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ZONES...TAPERING OFF TO CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTH. LAPSE
RATES AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORMS TONIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH POPS ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS
PROGGED LOW LEVEL JET OF 45-50 KTS INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. MAY BE A LULL IN THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOCAL AREA GETS
FURTHER INTO THE WARM SECTOR BEFORE COLD FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY
EVENING...BUT WON/T GET TOO DETAILED IN THE TIMING AT THIS POINT.
APPEARS DEEP SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE CORE OF THE MID LEVEL JET APPROACHES. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRONTAL SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH OFF TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY MORNING TO GO
DRY FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS SUGGEST THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
IN THE LATER PERIODS LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS POINT...ALTHOUGH THE
LOWS FRIDAY MORNING LOOK TOO WARM IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
WILL LOWER THEM ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES IN THAT PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
DRY PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE IN
THE PROCESS OF MOVING AWAY TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY...WITH RIDGING
ALOFT AND WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S SATURDAY WILL WARM
PRIMARILY INTO THE 60S FOR SUNDAY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN RETURNS FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE EXTENDED.
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXPANDING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SERVE TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE BY LATE WEEKEND WITH
MOISTURE INCREASING AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN COUNTIES
WITH MORE EXTENSIVE PRECIP COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM TAPS
INTO A GULF MOISTURE FETCH. FAST MOVING UPPER LOW TRACKING WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL JET WILL MOVE FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA EARLY SUNDAY INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE MONDAY WITH SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS BY MONDAY
NIGHT. WARM FRONT SETS UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AND WILL PROMOTE ANOTHER PERIOD WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SURFACE WAVE TRACKS INTO THE REGION BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK.
HIGHS WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN THE 60S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
CLOUDS AND RAINFALL LIKELY TO LIMIT TEMP RISES.
&&
.AVIATION /UPDATE FOR 081200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 956 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
FIRST THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX EXITING TAF SITES AT 081400Z AFTER
PRODUCING A LOT OF QUARTER INCH TO HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND
ISOLATED 40 KNOT WIND GUSTS. TORRENTIAL RAINS ALSO DROPPED
VISIBILITIES TO AROUND ONE MILE BRIEFLY.
WINDS SWITCHED TO NORTHWEST WITH SQUALL LINE PASSAGE AND ARE
CURRENTLY WORKING THERE WAY AROUND THE DIAL FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST
AND EVENTUALLY TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY 081700Z AND BECOMING GUSTY.
CLOUD DECKS BRIEFLY DROPPED BELOW 2000 FEET AT CORE OF STORMS BUT
HAVE RECOVERED TO BASES OVER 3000 FEET.
FORECASTS WILL BE ADJUSTED TO VFR VSBY AND CLOUD DECKS WHILE WINDS
WORK THERE WAY BACK TO SOUTH. THE FEW CELLS REFORMING IN EASTERN
ILLINOIS DO NOT APPEAR TO GROW IN COVERAGE BUT WILL BE THREAT TO
TERRE HAUTE THROUGH 081600Z.
MISSOURI THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX LIKELY TO BECOME A PLAYER FOR
CENTRAL INDIANA TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...TUCEK
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1011 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1003 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
SEVERAL PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. A STATIONARY FRONT OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND
OHIO IS EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT TODAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BECOMING NUMEROUS TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON THURSDAY LIKELY CAUSING ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S NORTH OF THE FRONT IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE LOW 70S
SOUTH OF THE FRONT SOUTH OF US 30. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
THE CLOUDY...COOL PATTERN CONTINUES AS WE MAINTAIN OUR POSITION
NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE HAS TRIGGERED SOME
CONVECTION IN SE IOWA/ WESTERN ILLINOIS JUST NORTH OF THIS
STATIONARY FRONT. THE STORMS SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING WITH EASTWARD
EXTENT...LIKELY DUE TO A SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAP AT 650MB AND LESS
INFLUENCE FROM THE MID LEVEL WAVE. GIVEN THE REMAINING UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD...HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE.
EXPECT A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON ON TODAY
AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO
EJECT OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A LONG
AWAITED SHIFT NORTHWARD IN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS PSEUDO WARM
FRONTAL SURGE WILL CREATE SIGNIFICANT BUST POTENTIAL FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TODAY. AREAS SOUTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT WILL
LIKELY WARM INTO THE LOW 70S WITH AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT REMAINING
IN THE MID 50S. THE EXACT PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT NORTHWARD WILL
DICTATE EXACTLY WHO SEES THE WARMER TEMPERATURES...BUT THE LATEST
HIRES GUIDANCE PUTS THE MAX NORTHWARD PROGRESSION RIGHT ALONG US30.
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONT...ITS PRESENCE
ACROSS OUR AREA MEANS WE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE
IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY WRT TIMING OF STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. NAM
AND RAP HAVE A DECENT SHORTWAVE SPAWNING STORMS NORTH OF SAINT LOUIS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MOVING THAT MCS THROUGH OUR AREA AROUND
00Z. ONLY GLOBAL GUIDANCE WHICH EVEN HINTS AT A WAVE MOVING THROUGH
AT THAT TIME IS THE GEM AND THEREFORE GLOBAL GUIDANCE HOLDS OFF ON
CONVECTION UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. IR SATELLITE DOES SHOW SOME COOLER
CLOUD TOPS IN SW KANSAS WHERE THIS SW IS CURRENTLY SUPPOSED TO
BE...SO AM INCLINED TO BELIEVE THE HIRES GUIDANCE AND DISCOUNT THE
GLOBAL GUIDANCE AS LACKING THE RESOLUTION TO PROPERLY RESOLVE THIS
WAVE. SEVERE RISK DOES EXIST WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP IN THIS
AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME GIVEN 40 TO 50 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
1500 TO 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE SOUTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT. EVEN IF THE
EARLY EVENING STORM DEVELOPMENT ON THE HIRES GUIDANCE DOESN`T
MATERIALIZE...THERE WILL STILL BE AN ISOLATED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GIVEN THE ~2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND 30
KNOT LLJ WITH THE REMAINING PRESENCE OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
PRIMARY CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM WILL CENTER ON CONVECTIVE/SEVERE
POTENTIAL THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY RENEWED PRECIP
CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING AS UPPER JET
STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL JET ENCROACHES ON THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. AXIS OF 40-50 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW NOSING INTO
THE AREA BY MIDDAY WILL ALLOW FOR APPRECIABLE LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT NOSE OF STRONGER LOW
LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW POCKET OF PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES TO TRACK
ACROSS FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING WITH AMPLE ELEVATED MOISTURE
FOR SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER. POTENTIAL OF SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL APPEARS TO BE INTACT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FORCING ALONG WITH POTENTIAL OF SOME HAIL
GIVEN ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING/WBZ ZERO
HEIGHTS BETWEEN 9-10K FT.
SOME DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS ON INSTABILITY MAGNITUDES
DURING PEAK HEATING. ATTENTION FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL
SHIFT UPSTREAM TO MORE ROBUST EASTERN PACIFIC WAVE WHICH SHOULD
ACQUIRE NEGATIVE TILT ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
EVENING. FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND LEADING EDGE OF MID LEVEL DRY SLOT
SHOULD REGENERATE POTENTIALLY VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS ILLINOIS DURING THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY TRACKING INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF LOCAL AREA THURSDAY EVENING. EXTENT OF ANY
THINNING CLOUD COVER THURSDAY AFTERNOON/LOW LEVEL TEMP TRENDS WILL
HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON INSTABILITY MAGNITUDES. GIVEN STRENGTH OF
BACKGROUND WIND FIELDS...A WIND THREAT MAY EVOLVE THURSDAY EVENING
EVEN IF AFTERNOON INSTABILITY RECOVERY IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. AS
MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST...A SOMEWHAT HIGHER SEVERE THREAT MAY
UNFOLD IF GREATER LATE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED GIVEN
SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR PROFILES...AND IN LIGHT OF DIFFERENTIAL
MOISTURE ADVECTION IMMEDIATELY PRECEDING SFC FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRY SLOT. SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK HAS MAINTAINED HIGHER
SVR PROBS ACROSS WESTERN THIRD/HALF OF AREA...WITH POSSIBILITY OF
WEAK NEAR SFC DIURNAL COOLING LATER THURSDAY EVENING DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY MAGNITUDES A BIT ACROSS THE EAST. ONLY TWEAK TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST WAS TO SLIGHTLY SPEED UP TIMING OF WEST TO EAST POP
REDUCTION LATER THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING COLD FRONT PROGRESSION.
DID MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN SHOWER POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH/FAR
EAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING GIVEN LINGERING MID/UPPER FORCING WITH A
SERIES OF SMALLER SCALE WAVES ROTATING THROUGH LONGWAVE TROUGH...BUT
ADDITIONAL PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD BE QUITE
LIGHT. BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH DEEPER POST
FRONTAL MIXING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. IT STILL APPEARS AS
THOUGH THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY WITH
NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS UNDER INFLUENCE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.
LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO DEPART TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ALLOWING FOR A FAIRLY QUICK TRANSITION TO STRONGER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOR MONDAY. GOOD MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND
APPROACH OF CUT-OFF SOUTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY FOR TUE/WED SHOULD
KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THIS WAVE EVENTUALLY DAMPENS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS PATTERN
WILL ALSO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SHARPLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
A SHORT WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND ACCOMPANYING LOW LEVEL
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION HAS LED TO SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ORIENTATION OF THE LOW
LEVEL WARM FRONT WOULD SUGGEST BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER ALONG AND
SOUTH OF ROUTE 30 THROUGH AROUND 15Z. VEERING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD
TEND TO WEAKEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE A BIT OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO...SO STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO COVERAGE OF TS AS
FAR EAST AS KFWA BUT MAY NEED TO CARRY VCTS FOR A FEW HOURS. LIFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO LOWER END MVFR FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS WARM FRONT
EDGES A BIT FARTHER NORTH. THE NEXT FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE
EJECTING OUT OF SOUTHWEST CONUS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR RENEWED LOW
LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION AND AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...BENTLEY
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MARSILI
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
423 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 423 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
SEVERAL PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH OF THE FRONT IN SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN TO THE LOW 70S SOUTH OF THE FRONT SOUTH OF US 30. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
THE CLOUDY...COOL PATTERN CONTINUES AS WE MAINTAIN OUR POSITION
NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE HAS TRIGGERED SOME
CONVECTION IN SE IOWA/ WESTERN ILLINOIS JUST NORTH OF THIS
STATIONARY FRONT. THE STORMS SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING WITH EASTWARD
EXTENT...LIKELY DUE TO A SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAP AT 650MB AND LESS
INFLUENCE FROM THE MID LEVEL WAVE. GIVEN THE REMAINING UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD...HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE.
EXPECT A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON ON TODAY
AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO
EJECT OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A LONG
AWAITED SHIFT NORTHWARD IN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS PSEUDO WARM
FRONTAL SURGE WILL CREATE SIGNIFICANT BUST POTENTIAL FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TODAY. AREAS SOUTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT WILL
LIKELY WARM INTO THE LOW 70S WITH AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT REMAINING
IN THE MID 50S. THE EXACT PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT NORTHWARD WILL
DICTATE EXACTLY WHO SEES THE WARMER TEMPERATURES...BUT THE LATEST
HIRES GUIDANCE PUTS THE MAX NORTHWARD PROGRESSION RIGHT ALONG US30.
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONT...ITS PRESENCE
ACROSS OUR AREA MEANS WE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE
IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY WRT TIMING OF STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. NAM
AND RAP HAVE A DECENT SHORTWAVE SPAWNING STORMS NORTH OF SAINT LOUIS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MOVING THAT MCS THROUGH OUR AREA AROUND
00Z. ONLY GLOBAL GUIDANCE WHICH EVEN HINTS AT A WAVE MOVING THROUGH
AT THAT TIME IS THE GEM AND THEREFORE GLOBAL GUIDANCE HOLDS OFF ON
CONVECTION UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. IR SATELLITE DOES SHOW SOME COOLER
CLOUD TOPS IN SW KANSAS WHERE THIS SW IS CURRENTLY SUPPOSED TO
BE...SO AM INCLINED TO BELIEVE THE HIRES GUIDANCE AND DISCOUNT THE
GLOBAL GUIDANCE AS LACKING THE RESOLUTION TO PROPERLY RESOLVE THIS
WAVE. SEVERE RISK DOES EXIST WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP IN THIS
AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME GIVEN 40 TO 50 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
1500 TO 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE SOUTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT. EVEN IF THE
EARLY EVENING STORM DEVELOPMENT ON THE HIRES GUIDANCE DOESN`T
MATERIALIZE...THERE WILL STILL BE AN ISOLATED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GIVEN THE ~2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND 30
KNOT LLJ WITH THE REMAINING PRESENCE OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
PRIMARY CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM WILL CENTER ON CONVECTIVE/SEVERE
POTENTIAL THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY RENEWED PRECIP
CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING AS UPPER JET
STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL JET ENCROACHES ON THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. AXIS OF 40-50 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW NOSING INTO
THE AREA BY MIDDAY WILL ALLOW FOR APPRECIABLE LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT NOSE OF STRONGER LOW
LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW POCKET OF PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES TO TRACK
ACROSS FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING WITH AMPLE ELEVATED MOISTURE
FOR SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER. POTENTIAL OF SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL APPEARS TO BE INTACT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FORCING ALONG WITH POTENTIAL OF SOME HAIL
GIVEN ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING/WBZ ZERO
HEIGHTS BETWEEN 9-10K FT.
SOME DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS ON INSTABILITY MAGNITUDES
DURING PEAK HEATING. ATTENTION FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL
SHIFT UPSTREAM TO MORE ROBUST EASTERN PACIFIC WAVE WHICH SHOULD
ACQUIRE NEGATIVE TILT ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
EVENING. FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND LEADING EDGE OF MID LEVEL DRY SLOT
SHOULD REGENERATE POTENTIALLY VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS ILLINOIS DURING THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY TRACKING INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF LOCAL AREA THURSDAY EVENING. EXTENT OF ANY
THINNING CLOUD COVER THURSDAY AFTERNOON/LOW LEVEL TEMP TRENDS WILL
HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON INSTABILITY MAGNITUDES. GIVEN STRENGTH OF
BACKGROUND WIND FIELDS...A WIND THREAT MAY EVOLVE THURSDAY EVENING
EVEN IF AFTERNOON INSTABILITY RECOVERY IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. AS
MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST...A SOMEWHAT HIGHER SEVERE THREAT MAY
UNFOLD IF GREATER LATE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED GIVEN
SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR PROFILES...AND IN LIGHT OF DIFFERENTIAL
MOISTURE ADVECTION IMMEDIATELY PRECEDING SFC FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRY SLOT. SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK HAS MAINTAINED HIGHER
SVR PROBS ACROSS WESTERN THIRD/HALF OF AREA...WITH POSSIBILITY OF
WEAK NEAR SFC DIURNAL COOLING LATER THURSDAY EVENING DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY MAGNITUDES A BIT ACROSS THE EAST. ONLY TWEAK TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST WAS TO SLIGHTLY SPEED UP TIMING OF WEST TO EAST POP
REDUCTION LATER THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING COLD FRONT PROGRESSION.
DID MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN SHOWER POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH/FAR
EAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING GIVEN LINGERING MID/UPPER FORCING WITH A
SERIES OF SMALLER SCALE WAVES ROTATING THROUGH LONGWAVE TROUGH...BUT
ADDITIONAL PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD BE QUITE
LIGHT. BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH DEEPER POST
FRONTAL MIXING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. IT STILL APPEARS AS
THOUGH THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY WITH
NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS UNDER INFLUENCE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.
LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO DEPART TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ALLOWING FOR A FAIRLY QUICK TRANSITION TO STRONGER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOR MONDAY. GOOD MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND
APPROACH OF CUT-OFF SOUTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY FOR TUE/WED SHOULD
KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THIS WAVE EVENTUALLY DAMPENS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS PATTERN
WILL ALSO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SHARPLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AT KSBN BEFORE LOWER
ALT MIN CIGS ADVECT IN AFTER 10Z. THESE LOW CIGS WILL PERSIST
AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH MID DAY WHEN A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT AROUND TO
SOUTHWESTERLY SOUTH OF THIS FRONT AT KFWA AND WILL SWITCH TO
NORTHWESTERLY AT KSBN AS A WEAK WAVE TRAVERSES THIS FRONT. THIS
WAVE MAY BRING A FEW STORMS THROUGH THE AREA AROUND 00Z...BUT WILL
WAIT FOR LATER TAF ISSUANCES TO INTRODUCE ANY TSRA MENTION.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BENTLEY
SHORT TERM...BENTLEY
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...BENTLEY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
401 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 401 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015
THE INITIAL CONVECTION IS ABOUT TO EXIT THE FORECAST AREA.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING THE FRONT BEGINNING TO RETREAT TO THE NORTH
AND AT 2055Z WAS LOCATED FROM ANTHONY TO MULVANE TO EMPORIA.
THE 20Z RAP SHOWS THE RETREAT OF THE FRONT VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD.
DO NOT THINK IT WILL GET CARRIED AWAY AND GO TOO FAR NORTH GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD POOL. THROUGH 01Z...LOW LEVEL CAPE AND
SHEAR WILL INCREASE...PRODUCING AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL FAVOR
TORNADOES...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SIGNIFICANT.
CONVECTION IS ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE REGION.
THIS WILL BE THE DISTURBANCE THAT LEADS TO TONIGHTS SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
THINKING TONIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK. WHERE STORMS WILL BE ARE
CONTINGENT TO THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT. WILL REMAIN VIGILANT IN
TRACKING THIS.
KRC
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015
THIS EVENING-TONIGHT: LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MAIN SURFACE
BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST TO THE SE OF ICT METRO...MAINLY FROM EUREKA TO
MULVANE TO WELLINGTON. THE INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS ALREADY
BEGUN OVER SRN KS...WITH MULTICELL STORMS PRODUCING MAINLY HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. THIS INITIAL ROUND OF STORMS WILL STAY IN THE WARM
SECTOR ACROSS SE KS FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THE MAIN
CONCERN FROM THIS ROUND BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN
THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND FAVORABLE BULK SHEAR.
LATEST SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BOUNDARY
RETROGRADING BACK TO THE NORTH EARLY THIS EVENING BETWEEN 21Z-02Z...
WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL CAPE BACK TOWARDS THE KICT
METRO. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE INCREASE IN BULK SHEAR FROM THE
INCOMING DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE A
SCENARIO VERY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRY LINE AS IT SHARPENS FOR AREAS TO THE WEST AND SW OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SECOND POSSIBLY MORE SIGNIFICANT
CHANCE OF STORMS FOR LATER THIS EVENING WELL AFTER DARK. LATEST HI-
RES MODEL CONTINUE TO SHOW 0-8KM SHEAR IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE LONG TRACK TORNADOES. INCREASED MLCAPE TO
2000-2500 J/KG AND LOWERING LCL LEVELS WOULD ALSO SUGGEST A
STRONG TORNADO THREAT AS WELL. SO THIS SETUP WOULD STILL LEAD TO
HIGH LIKELYHOOD OF THE TORNADO THREAT CONTINUING WELL AFTER DARK
FOR AREAS AREAS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS...MAINLY ALONG OR SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 54/400.
EXPECT THE SEVERE CONVECTION TO CONTINUE FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH PROGRESSION OF THE STORMS TO THE EAST INTO THE FLINT
HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS TO WANE SOME AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WHICH WILL LIKELY SHIFT THE SEVERE WEATHER MODE TO MORE
OF A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND CHANCE.
THU: COULD SEE SOME LINGERING STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
KS IN THE MORNING HOURS AS THE DRY LINE/BOUNDARY SURGES EAST INTO
WRN MO. IT NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY THAT
SOME LINGERING STRONG STORMS WILL BE OVER SE KS...BUT THIS CHANCE
WILL BE SHORT LIVED. EXPECT THE THU AFTERNOON SEVERE THREAT TO
OVER EXTREME SE KS AND MAINLY IN SW MO. WITH THE REST OF THE
REGION SEEING NICE WEATHER RETURN TO THE AREA...WITH DRIER AIR
MOVING INTO THE AREA.
FRI-EARLY SAT: A COUPLE OF NICE DAY EXPECTED FOR FRI AND EARLY SAT
AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE
SRN PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS AND SUNNY SKIES
IN MOST LOCATIONS. AS SATURDAY PROGRESSES...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
RAPIDLY RETURN TO THE AREA FOR AREAS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
SAT AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP TO THE
WEST OF THE AREA AND POSSIBLY MOVE INTO SOME OF THE WRN PORTIONS OF
COUNTY WARNING AREA BY SAT EVENING.
SAT NIGHT: ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE RETURN WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE WRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SAT NIGHT. THIS MAY LEAD TO
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASING ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA FOR SAT NIGHT.
KETCHAM
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO DIFFER SOME ON HOW SUN AND MON WILL PLAY OUT.
BUT BOT MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE ECMWF LOOKS TO
CLEAR THINGS OUT ON MON...WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS A BOUNDARY MAY BE
STATIONARY ACROSS SRN KS FOR MON.
KETCHAM
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015
CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPING OVER OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
THE AIRSPACE AND CONTINUE WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS THROUGH 6Z. THIS
WILL AFFECT ALL AIRPORTS AND FIELDS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF KSLN-
KVNX. THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE AND SHOULD BE AVOIDED.
FOG...WHICH CONTINUES TO AFFECT KHUT...KRSL...KSLN HAS BEEN SLOW
TO BURN OFF. THINK IT SHOULD BE GONE BY 21Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH 03Z...WITH FOG REDEVELOPMENT THERE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 12Z.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY 14Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015
MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOOK TO ON THURSDAY.
EVEN WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL
BE IN PLACE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE KS DUE TO GUSTY SOUTH WINDS.
HOWEVER...THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY LOOKS TO BE THU. THIS IS
WHEN STRONG NW WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG
WITH RH`S IN THE 35-45 PERCENT RANGE. WIND SPEEDS THU AFTERNOON
WILL BE IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 56 71 39 68 / 30 10 0 0
HUTCHINSON 52 67 37 68 / 30 10 0 0
NEWTON 54 67 38 67 / 30 10 0 0
ELDORADO 60 69 39 68 / 40 10 10 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 61 72 40 68 / 30 10 0 0
RUSSELL 46 63 35 67 / 20 10 10 0
GREAT BEND 46 64 35 67 / 10 10 0 0
SALINA 50 65 35 68 / 30 20 10 0
MCPHERSON 51 66 36 67 / 30 10 10 0
COFFEYVILLE 65 76 42 68 / 40 30 10 0
CHANUTE 64 73 41 68 / 50 30 10 0
IOLA 63 72 40 67 / 50 30 10 0
PARSONS-KPPF 64 74 41 68 / 50 30 10 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
348 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015
...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015
A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN
KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. A DRYLINE WILL
EXTEND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS BARBER COUNTY INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL BE CROSSING CENTRAL KANSAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
ALONG EITHER SURFACE BOUNDARY. BASED ON THE 0-6KM SHEAR FORECAST
AT 00Z THURSDAY ANY STORM THAT MAY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA SHOULD
RAPIDLY DEVELOP AND MAY BECOME SEVERE BEFORE IT MOVES EAST OF
PRATT AND BARBER COUNTY. AT THIS TIME THE MAIN HAZARD LATE TODAY
WILL BE 2 INCH HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
FURTHER WEST CLEAR SKIES, WARM TEMPERATURES, AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
30S HAVE RESULT IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING BACK INTO THE
TEENS AT 00F 18Z. GIVEN THAT THE CLEARING TREND CURRENTLY
OCCURRING WILL CONTINUE, BASED ON SATELLITE LOOP, AND THE 850MB
MIX DOWN TEMPERATURES AT 00Z THURSDAY IT APPEARS THAT CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL STILL EXIST LATE TODAY. AS A RESULT
WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING GOING FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...THE SURFACE BOUNDARY,
WHICH WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING, WILL MOVE SOUTH AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. BASED ON THE SURFACE DEW POINTS EXPECTED
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, SOME MID OR HIGH CLOUDS PRECEDING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, AND A DEVELOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL APPEARS ON TRACK WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT
MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. LOWS IN THE 50 TO NEAR 55
DEGREE RANGE WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS A SURFACE HIGHS BEGINS TO BUILD INTO NORTHWESTERN
KANSAS/NORTHEAST COLORADO. OVER WESTERN KANSAS GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AT 20 TO NEAR 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON
BASED ON 0-1KM WINDS RANGING FROM 25 TO NEAR 35 KNOTS, AND THE
MEAN MIXED LAYER WINDS AT 18Z AND 21Z RANGING FROM 30 TO 35KNOTS.
BASED ON THE MIXING POTENTIAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE BUFR
NAM, AND THE 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z FRIDAY WILL TREND TOWARDS
THE WARMER GUIDANCE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015
COOL, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE 30S, WITH SOME READINGS CLOSE TO FREEZING FROM DODGE
CITY WESTWARD AND NORTHWARD. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S FRIDAY.
THE MODELS, ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF/GFS, ARE INDICATING A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST PROGRESSING INTO THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS IN NEGATIVE TILT FASHION BY SUNDAY BEFORE CLOSING OFF
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY. THE GEM IS FATHER SOUTH WITH
THE UPPER LOW, WITH LESS PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN KANSAS. WITH
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE GOOD ON MONDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ALONG
THE LEE TROUGH AS WELL BUT WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY, .
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE MILD, BUT MAY BE HELD DOWN
MONDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL OF
COURSE BE INCREASING THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO THE LEE TROUGHING,
SOUTH WINDS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS.
A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK,
RESULTING IN LEE TROUGHING, SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. GIVEN A POSITIVE TILT TO THIS UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM AS DEPICTED IN THE MODELS, SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES MAY BE
HIGHER ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS DUE TO MORE VEERED LOW LEVEL WINDS,
WITH SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK OVER WESTERN KANSAS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. BEHIND
THIS FRONT, MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015
STATUS AND FOG WILL ERODE THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY
BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AT THIS TIME
BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS FROM THE HRRR AND RAP WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE CEILING WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 20Z AND
22Z AT DDC AND GCK. HYS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR. VFR CONDITIONS AT
HYS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARDS 00Z THURSDAY. THE PREVAILING
WIND THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF THIS FRONT WILL BE NORTHERLY AT 10
KNOTS OR LESS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE BY LATE MORNING THURSDAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 46 66 35 67 / 10 10 0 0
GCK 42 64 34 68 / 10 10 0 0
EHA 42 65 35 68 / 10 10 0 0
LBL 44 67 36 68 / 20 10 0 0
HYS 45 62 34 67 / 20 10 0 0
P28 53 72 38 69 / 20 10 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ084>086.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
156 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015
...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015
A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN
KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. A DRYLINE WILL
EXTEND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS BARBER COUNTY INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL BE CROSSING CENTRAL KANSAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
ALONG EITHER SURFACE BOUNDARY. BASED ON THE 0-6KM SHEAR FORECAST
AT 00Z THURSDAY ANY STORM THAT MAY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA SHOULD
RAPIDLY DEVELOP AND MAY BECOME SEVERE BEFORE IT MOVES EAST OF
PRATT AND BARBER COUNTY. AT THIS TIME THE MAIN HAZARD LATE TODAY
WILL BE 2 INCH HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
FURTHER WEST CLEAR SKIES, WARM TEMPERATURES, AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
30S HAVE RESULT IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING BACK INTO THE
TEENS AT 00F 18Z. GIVEN THAT THE CLEARING TREND CURRENTLY
OCCURRING WILL CONTINUE, BASED ON SATELLITE LOOP, AND THE 850MB
MIX DOWN TEMPERATURES AT 00Z THURSDAY IT APPEARS THAT CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL STILL EXIST LATE TODAY. AS A RESULT
WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING GOING FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...THE SURFACE BOUNDARY,
WHICH WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING, WILL MOVE SOUTH AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. BASED ON THE SURFACE DEW POINTS EXPECTED
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, SOME MID OR HIGH CLOUDS PRECEDING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, AND A DEVELOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL APPEARS ON TRACK WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT
MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. LOWS IN THE 50 TO NEAR 55
DEGREE RANGE WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS A SURFACE HIGHS BEGINS TO BUILD INTO NORTHWESTERN
KANSAS/NORTHEAST COLORADO. OVER WESTERN KANSAS GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AT 20 TO NEAR 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON
BASED ON 0-1KM WINDS RANGING FROM 25 TO NEAR 35 KNOTS, AND THE
MEAN MIXED LAYER WINDS AT 18Z AND 21Z RANGING FROM 30 TO 35KNOTS.
BASED ON THE MIXING POTENTIAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE BUFR
NAM, AND THE 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z FRIDAY WILL TREND TOWARDS
THE WARMER GUIDANCE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS
THURSDAY WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES
AND PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVER NORTHERN KANSAS THURSDAY
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED THERE AND ELSEWHERE THROUGH
FRIDAY. TOWARDS THE SURFACE, A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM LEADING TO NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY SHIFTING WINDS BACK TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM, ELABORATED
ABOUT BELOW, APPROACHES.
ATTENTION THEN FOCUSES ON THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
INTENSIFIES ABOVE THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THEN TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BEFORE CURLING NORTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS.
TOWARDS THE SURFACE, THE AFOREMENTIONED DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES ALLOWING
GULF MOISTURE TO BE PUSHED NORTH INTO THE PLAINS. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASED
CLOUD COVER. A QUIET PATTERN THEN RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 30S THURSDAY NIGHT AND IN THE MID 40S
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS THEN REBOUND INTO THE 70S SATURDAY WITH CLOSER
TO 80 DEGREES EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. LOWS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS DURING THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK LOOK TO BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS CONTINUING
TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015
STATUS AND FOG WILL ERODE THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY
BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AT THIS TIME
BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS FROM THE HRRR AND RAP WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE CEILING WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 20Z AND
22Z AT DDC AND GCK. HYS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR. VFR CONDITIONS AT
HYS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARDS 00Z THURSDAY. THE PREVAILING
WIND THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF THIS FRONT WILL BE NORTHERLY AT 10
KNOTS OR LESS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE BY LATE MORNING THURSDAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 46 66 35 67 / 10 10 0 0
GCK 42 64 34 68 / 10 10 0 0
EHA 42 65 35 68 / 10 10 0 0
LBL 44 67 36 68 / 0 10 0 0
HYS 45 62 34 67 / 20 10 0 0
P28 53 72 38 69 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ061-062-074>076-084>088.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1243 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015
FRONT NOW DRIFTING SOUTHEAST AND IS LOCATED FROM KK68-KWDG.
INSPECTION OGT HE WSR-88D DATA SHOWS THE FRONT FROM ROSALIA-
MULVANE-BLUFF CITY. INFLECTION POINT SEEMS TO HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR
MULVANE.
FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION NOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
INCREASING IN INTENSITY. THE LATEST HRRR/RAP RUNS SHOW THIS WELL
AND BRING CONVECTION NORTHEAST FROM THAT LOCATION. THE MAIN THREAT
CONTINUES TO BE LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. THE LARGE HAIL
PARAMETER DOES SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT HAIL POTENTIAL.
THE RAP CONTINUES TO SHOW A RETROGRADING BOUNDARY WITH A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL CAPE. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE INCREASE IN SHEAR FROM THE INCOMING DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE A SCENARIO VERY FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS.
WHAT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT HAS BEEN THE CONTINUED FOCUS ON AN AREA
THAT INCLUDES COWLEY...SUMNER...AND SOUTHERN BUTLER COUNTIES WHERE
THESE SIGNIFICANT INGREDIENTS ALL COME TOGETHER. THIS IS ONLY NWP
GUIDANCE...BUT THE CONSISTENCY HAS REMAINED AND IS WORTH
MENTIONING.
MOREOVER...THE RAP CONTINUES TO SHOW A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
TORNADOES CONTINUING AFTER DARK. PRETTY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SCENARIO.
KRC
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TRACKING OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED
OVER SE CO WITH THE SYNOPTIC FRONT STRETCHING FROM JUST NORTH OF
KGAG TO BETWEEN KCNU AND KPPF. MEANWHILE...A LOSE DRYLINE EXTENDS
ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE AND INTO WEST TX.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
ELEVATED STORMS DEVELOPED A COUPLE HOURS AGO OVER THE FLINT HILLS
IN RESPONSE TO A RAPID INCREASE IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE
850-700MB LAYER. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART STAY
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOK LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CURRENTLY HAVE A LEAN TO THE RAP13 DUE TO ITS PERFORMANCE
WITH THE CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS OVER
SE KS. IN ADDITION...IT SEEMS TO BE DOING A DECENT JOB CAPTURING
THE CURRENT ELEVATED CONVECTION. THE GFS LIFTS THE WARM FRONT
MUCH FURTHER NORTH COMPARED TO THE NAM AND RAP WITH THE FRONT
ALONG I-70. MEANWHILE THE RAP AND NAM LIFT THE FRONT TO JUST NORTH
OF KICT TO SOUTH OF KSLN.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE TRIPLE POINT BY LATE AFTERNOON WILL
BE SITUATED JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR OR JUST NORTH
OF KGAG WITH THE SYNOPTIC FRONT EXTENDING TO THE NORTHEAST NEAR
KICT AND THEN TO NEAR KEMP. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LEAD
IMPULSE/JET MAX OVER NORTHERN BAJA. EXPECTING STORMS TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT AS THIS FEATURE MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CAN THEN BE EXPECTED NORTHEAST
ALONG THE SYNOPTIC FRONT. IT SEEMS WITH EACH MODEL RUN THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY AND THE 00Z RUNS WERE NO
EXCEPTION...WITH AROUND 50KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND 65-80KTS OF
0-8KM SHEAR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS. THESE SHEAR VALUES WILL COMBINE
WITH 2000-3000J/KG OF CAPE TO ALLOW ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS TO
QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. THE SCARY PART IS THAT WITH THE
RETREATING DRYLINE AFTER 00Z...THE ENVIRONMENT ACTUALLY BECOMES
MORE FAVORABLE AFTER DARK AS WINDS BACK AND THE LOW LEVEL JET GETS
GOING. SO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO GET A TORNADO AFTER DARK OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL KS. THE BEST TORNADO POTENTIAL TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 99. IF THE NAM AND RAP13
VERIFIES...SEVERE STORMS OVER CENTRAL KS WOULD BE LESS LIKELY.
BY 12Z THU...THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN
KS/NEBRASKA WITH THE SYNOPTIC FRONT CATCHING UP TO THE DRYLINE AND
SURGING EAST. WHILE THERE MAYBE SOME REMNANT STORMS OVER SE KS
AROUND SUNRISE...THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY AFTER 15Z THU WILL BE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER CHANCES
FOR PRECIP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THU.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENCOMPASS THE PLAINS FOR FRI
WITH TEMPS FINALLY GETTING BACK TO SEASONAL VALUES. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF BRING A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM OUT OF THE BAJA REGION
AND INTO WEST TX BY SUN EVENING. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SAT BUT THE
BETTER PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO ARRIVE SUN NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MON WHEN THE IMPULSE LIFTS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE GFS HAS
THIS FEATURE QUITE A BIT FURTHER WEST COMPARED TO THE ECMWF WHICH
RESULTS IN THE ECMWF BEING THE WETTER SOLUTION.
LAWSON
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015
CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPING OVER OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
THE AIRSPACE AND CONTINUE WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS THROUGH 6Z. THIS
WILL AFFECT ALL AIRPORTS AND FIELDS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF KSLN-
KVNX. THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE AND SHOULD BE AVOIDED.
FOG...WHICH CONTINUES TO AFFECT KHUT...KRSL...KSLN HAS BEEN SLOW
TO BURN OFF. THINK IT SHOULD BE GONE BY 21Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH 03Z...WITH FOG REDEVELOPMENT THERE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 12Z.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY 14Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOOK TO ON THURSDAY.
EVEN WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER
WILL BE IN PLACE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE KS DUE TO GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS. HOWEVER...THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY LOOKS TO BE THU.
THIS IS WHEN STRONG NW WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ALONG WITH RH`S IN THE 35-45% RANGE. WIND SPEEDS THU
AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 83 56 71 38 / 30 30 10 0
HUTCHINSON 75 52 67 37 / 30 20 10 0
NEWTON 77 54 67 38 / 40 30 10 0
ELDORADO 83 60 69 40 / 40 40 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 85 61 72 41 / 40 30 10 0
RUSSELL 64 46 63 35 / 20 20 10 10
GREAT BEND 69 46 64 35 / 20 10 10 0
SALINA 67 50 65 35 / 30 30 20 10
MCPHERSON 70 51 66 36 / 30 30 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 82 65 76 43 / 40 40 30 10
CHANUTE 78 64 73 41 / 40 50 30 10
IOLA 78 63 72 40 / 40 50 30 10
PARSONS-KPPF 81 64 74 42 / 40 50 30 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1217 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST CENTER AROUND DENSE
FOG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING AND THEN RED FLAG CONDITIONS OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUED TO EXTEND FROM THE FRONT RANGE OF
CENTRAL COLORADO ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF KANSAS INTO
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND BACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
KANSAS INTO MISSOURI. A SURGE OF EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE
NORTH OF THE FRONT HAS RESULTED IN STRATUS SURGING BACK SOUTH
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD LIGHT FOG WAS ALSO
DEVELOPING ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE OVER NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER THE DEEPEST OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG I-70 WITH THE LAYER BECOMING MORE SHALLOW OUT
NEAR THE COLORADO AND OKLAHOMA BORDERS. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF FOG
AND DRIZZLE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50
EARLY THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY DRIZZLE
WILL BE ALONG I-70. SHORT TERM MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
TOWARD AN AREA OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPING OVER FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS
INTO EAST CENTRAL COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING. WHILE A FEW POCKETS
OF DENSE FOG HAD DEVELOPED EARLIER IN NORTHWEST KANSAS, IT DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE A SOLID TREND IN THAT DIRECTION YET. FOR NOW WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY DENSE FOG HEADLINES BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW FOG
WITH 1/2 MILE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE WITH THE FOG AND
STRATUS DISSIPATING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY. HAYS WILL
BE THE LAST TO CLEAR OUT WITH SOME SUN POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARMER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN. THERE
WILL BE A FAIRLY LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH
HAYS ONLY REACHING AROUND 60 OR SO WHILE IN THE SOUTHWEST CORNER,
ELKHART AND LIBERAL SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S.
FARTHER EAST, THE FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTHWARD TO NEAR MEDICINE
LODGE THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A DRYLINE TRAILS FROM THAT AREA
SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA. MODEL SOUNDINGS AROUND MEDICINE LODGE
SHOW LAPSE RATES STEEPENING AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MIXES OUT THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, FAIRLY STRONG 0-6 KM SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF
50-60 KNOTS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE/FRONT INTERSECTION AS UPPER LEVEL LIFT
INCREASES WITH A 500 MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE REGION.
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE MOVING OFF FAIRLY RAPIDLY TO THE
EAST AND THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY ONLY BE DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS
THURSDAY WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES
AND PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVER NORTHERN KANSAS THURSDAY
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED THERE AND ELSEWHERE THROUGH
FRIDAY. TOWARDS THE SURFACE, A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM LEADING TO NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY SHIFTING WINDS BACK TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM, ELABORATED
ABOUT BELOW, APPROACHES.
ATTENTION THEN FOCUSES ON THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
INTENSIFIES ABOVE THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THEN TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BEFORE CURLING NORTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS.
TOWARDS THE SURFACE, THE AFOREMENTIONED DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES ALLOWING
GULF MOISTURE TO BE PUSHED NORTH INTO THE PLAINS. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASED
CLOUD COVER. A QUIET PATTERN THEN RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 30S THURSDAY NIGHT AND IN THE MID 40S
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS THEN REBOUND INTO THE 70S SATURDAY WITH CLOSER
TO 80 DEGREES EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. LOWS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS DURING THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK LOOK TO BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS CONTINUING
TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015
STATUS AND FOG WILL ERODE THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY
BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AT THIS TIME
BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS FROM THE HRRR AND RAP WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE CEILING WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 20Z AND
22Z AT DDC AND GCK. HYS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR. VFR CONDITIONS AT
HYS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARDS 00Z THURSDAY. THE PREVAILING
WIND THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF THIS FRONT WILL BE NORTHERLY AT 10
KNOTS OR LESS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE BY LATE MORNING THURSDAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP OVER FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER
LIFTS TO THE NORTH, ALLOWING VERY WARM AND DRY AIR BACK INTO THE
AREA. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE SO THE CRITICAL AREA WILL BE
FAIRLY SMALL IN THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 79 46 66 35 / 10 10 10 0
GCK 77 42 64 34 / 10 10 10 0
EHA 83 42 65 35 / 0 10 10 0
LBL 86 44 67 36 / 0 0 10 0
HYS 60 45 62 34 / 10 20 10 0
P28 82 53 72 38 / 20 10 10 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ061-062-074>076-084>088.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...GERARD LONG
AVIATION...BURGERT
FIRE WEATHER...GERARD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1207 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1037 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
LOOKS LIKE THE SCENARIO MAY BE STARTING TO SHOW ITSELF. RADAR DATA
SHOWING SOME LIGHT RETURNS OVER OKLAHOMA. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH
THE HRRR/RAP RUNS...WHICH HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING TWO ROUNDS OF
STORMS.
THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE WEAK RETURNS
WILL DEVELOP INTO ELEVATED STORMS ACROSS OKLAHOMA. THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AROUND 19Z
AND MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST KANSAS EAST OF THE TURNPIKE. AS
STATED...THESE WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE ELEVATED WITH A VERY LARGE
HAIL AND WIND THREAT. IF THE STORMS CAN GET SURFACE BASED...THEN
IT SEEMS THAT WE COULD GET A TORNADO...BUT THAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
THE SECOND ROUND OCCURS AROUND 00Z WHERE THE DRYLINE RETREATS AND
SHEAR INCREASES AS A RESULT OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE COUPLING AND MOVING THROUGH. THIS IS THE SIGNIFICANT
TORNADO AREA...SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS.
KRC
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TRACKING OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED
OVER SE CO WITH THE SYNOPTIC FRONT STRETCHING FROM JUST NORTH OF
KGAG TO BETWEEN KCNU AND KPPF. MEANWHILE...A LOSE DRYLINE EXTENDS
ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE AND INTO WEST TX.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
ELEVATED STORMS DEVELOPED A COUPLE HOURS AGO OVER THE FLINT HILLS
IN RESPONSE TO A RAPID INCREASE IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE
850-700MB LAYER. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART STAY
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOK LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CURRENTLY HAVE A LEAN TO THE RAP13 DUE TO ITS PERFORMANCE
WITH THE CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS OVER
SE KS. IN ADDITION...IT SEEMS TO BE DOING A DECENT JOB CAPTURING
THE CURRENT ELEVATED CONVECTION. THE GFS LIFTS THE WARM FRONT
MUCH FURTHER NORTH COMPARED TO THE NAM AND RAP WITH THE FRONT
ALONG I-70. MEANWHILE THE RAP AND NAM LIFT THE FRONT TO JUST NORTH
OF KICT TO SOUTH OF KSLN.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE TRIPLE POINT BY LATE AFTERNOON WILL
BE SITUATED JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR OR JUST NORTH
OF KGAG WITH THE SYNOPTIC FRONT EXTENDING TO THE NORTHEAST NEAR
KICT AND THEN TO NEAR KEMP. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LEAD
IMPULSE/JET MAX OVER NORTHERN BAJA. EXPECTING STORMS TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT AS THIS FEATURE MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CAN THEN BE EXPECTED NORTHEAST
ALONG THE SYNOPTIC FRONT. IT SEEMS WITH EACH MODEL RUN THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY AND THE 00Z RUNS WERE NO
EXCEPTION...WITH AROUND 50KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND 65-80KTS OF
0-8KM SHEAR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS. THESE SHEAR VALUES WILL COMBINE
WITH 2000-3000J/KG OF CAPE TO ALLOW ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS TO
QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. THE SCARY PART IS THAT WITH THE
RETREATING DRYLINE AFTER 00Z...THE ENVIRONMENT ACTUALLY BECOMES
MORE FAVORABLE AFTER DARK AS WINDS BACK AND THE LOW LEVEL JET GETS
GOING. SO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO GET A TORNADO AFTER DARK OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL KS. THE BEST TORNADO POTENTIAL TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 99. IF THE NAM AND RAP13
VERIFIES...SEVERE STORMS OVER CENTRAL KS WOULD BE LESS LIKELY.
BY 12Z THU...THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN
KS/NEBRASKA WITH THE SYNOPTIC FRONT CATCHING UP TO THE DRYLINE AND
SURGING EAST. WHILE THERE MAYBE SOME REMNANT STORMS OVER SE KS
AROUND SUNRISE...THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY AFTER 15Z THU WILL BE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER CHANCES
FOR PRECIP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THU.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENCOMPASS THE PLAINS FOR FRI
WITH TEMPS FINALLY GETTING BACK TO SEASONAL VALUES. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF BRING A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM OUT OF THE BAJA REGION
AND INTO WEST TX BY SUN EVENING. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SAT BUT THE
BETTER PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO ARRIVE SUN NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MON WHEN THE IMPULSE LIFTS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE GFS HAS
THIS FEATURE QUITE A BIT FURTHER WEST COMPARED TO THE ECMWF WHICH
RESULTS IN THE ECMWF BEING THE WETTER SOLUTION.
LAWSON
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015
CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPING OVER OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
THE AIRSPACE AND CONTINUE WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS THROUGH 6Z. THIS
WILL AFFECT ALL AIRPORTS AND FIELDS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF KSLN-
KVNX. THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE AND SHOULD BE AVOIDED.
FOG...WHICH CONTINUES TO AFFECT KHUT...KRSL...KSLN HAS BEEN SLOW
TO BURN OFF. THINK IT SHOULD BE GONE BY 21Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH 03Z...WITH FOG REDEVELOPMENT THERE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 12Z.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY 14Z.
KRC
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOOK TO ON THURSDAY.
EVEN WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER
WILL BE IN PLACE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE KS DUE TO GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS. HOWEVER...THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY LOOKS TO BE THU.
THIS IS WHEN STRONG NW WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ALONG WITH RH`S IN THE 35-45% RANGE. WIND SPEEDS THU
AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 83 56 71 38 / 30 30 10 0
HUTCHINSON 75 52 67 37 / 30 20 10 0
NEWTON 77 54 67 38 / 40 30 10 0
ELDORADO 83 60 69 40 / 40 40 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 85 61 72 41 / 40 30 10 0
RUSSELL 64 46 63 35 / 20 20 10 10
GREAT BEND 69 46 64 35 / 20 10 10 0
SALINA 67 50 65 35 / 30 30 20 10
MCPHERSON 70 51 66 36 / 30 30 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 82 65 76 43 / 40 40 30 10
CHANUTE 78 64 73 41 / 40 50 30 10
IOLA 78 63 72 40 / 40 50 30 10
PARSONS-KPPF 81 64 74 42 / 40 50 30 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1045 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1037 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
LOOKS LIKE THE SCENARIO MAY BE STARTING TO SHOW ITSELF. RADAR DATA
SHOWING SOME LIGHT RETURNS OVER OKLAHOMA. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH
THE HRRR/RAP RUNS...WHICH HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING TWO ROUNDS OF
STORMS.
THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE WEAK RETURNS
WILL DEVELOP INTO ELEVATED STORMS ACROSS OKLAHOMA. THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AROUND 19Z
AND MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST KANSAS EAST OF THE TURNPIKE. AS
STATED...THESE WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE ELEVATED WITH A VERY LARGE
HAIL AND WIND THREAT. IF THE STORMS CAN GET SURFACE BASED...THEN
IT SEEMS THAT WE COULD GET A TORNADO...BUT THAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
THE SECOND ROUND OCCURS AROUND 00Z WHERE THE DRYLINE RETREATS AND
SHEAR INCREASES AS A RESULT OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE COUPLING AND MOVING THROUGH. THIS IS THE SIGNIFICANT
TORNADO AREA...SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS.
KRC
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TRACKING OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED
OVER SE CO WITH THE SYNOPTIC FRONT STRETCHING FROM JUST NORTH OF
KGAG TO BETWEEN KCNU AND KPPF. MEANWHILE...A LOSE DRYLINE EXTENDS
ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE AND INTO WEST TX.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
ELEVATED STORMS DEVELOPED A COUPLE HOURS AGO OVER THE FLINT HILLS
IN RESPONSE TO A RAPID INCREASE IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE
850-700MB LAYER. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART STAY
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOK LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CURRENTLY HAVE A LEAN TO THE RAP13 DUE TO ITS PERFORMANCE
WITH THE CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS OVER
SE KS. IN ADDITION...IT SEEMS TO BE DOING A DECENT JOB CAPTURING
THE CURRENT ELEVATED CONVECTION. THE GFS LIFTS THE WARM FRONT
MUCH FURTHER NORTH COMPARED TO THE NAM AND RAP WITH THE FRONT
ALONG I-70. MEANWHILE THE RAP AND NAM LIFT THE FRONT TO JUST NORTH
OF KICT TO SOUTH OF KSLN.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE TRIPLE POINT BY LATE AFTERNOON WILL
BE SITUATED JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR OR JUST NORTH
OF KGAG WITH THE SYNOPTIC FRONT EXTENDING TO THE NORTHEAST NEAR
KICT AND THEN TO NEAR KEMP. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LEAD
IMPULSE/JET MAX OVER NORTHERN BAJA. EXPECTING STORMS TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT AS THIS FEATURE MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CAN THEN BE EXPECTED NORTHEAST
ALONG THE SYNOPTIC FRONT. IT SEEMS WITH EACH MODEL RUN THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY AND THE 00Z RUNS WERE NO
EXCEPTION...WITH AROUND 50KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND 65-80KTS OF
0-8KM SHEAR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS. THESE SHEAR VALUES WILL COMBINE
WITH 2000-3000J/KG OF CAPE TO ALLOW ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS TO
QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. THE SCARY PART IS THAT WITH THE
RETREATING DRYLINE AFTER 00Z...THE ENVIRONMENT ACTUALLY BECOMES
MORE FAVORABLE AFTER DARK AS WINDS BACK AND THE LOW LEVEL JET GETS
GOING. SO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO GET A TORNADO AFTER DARK OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL KS. THE BEST TORNADO POTENTIAL TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 99. IF THE NAM AND RAP13
VERIFIES...SEVERE STORMS OVER CENTRAL KS WOULD BE LESS LIKELY.
BY 12Z THU...THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN
KS/NEBRASKA WITH THE SYNOPTIC FRONT CATCHING UP TO THE DRYLINE AND
SURGING EAST. WHILE THERE MAYBE SOME REMNANT STORMS OVER SE KS
AROUND SUNRISE...THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY AFTER 15Z THU WILL BE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER CHANCES
FOR PRECIP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THU.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENCOMPASS THE PLAINS FOR FRI
WITH TEMPS FINALLY GETTING BACK TO SEASONAL VALUES. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF BRING A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM OUT OF THE BAJA REGION
AND INTO WEST TX BY SUN EVENING. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SAT BUT THE
BETTER PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO ARRIVE SUN NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MON WHEN THE IMPULSE LIFTS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE GFS HAS
THIS FEATURE QUITE A BIT FURTHER WEST COMPARED TO THE ECMWF WHICH
RESULTS IN THE ECMWF BEING THE WETTER SOLUTION.
LAWSON
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2015
IFR/LIFR CIGS CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WHILE SEVERE STORMS LINGER ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH
THE PREDAWN HOURS. A WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY ALLOWING MVFR/VFR TO RETURN DURING THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
WITH SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A DRY LINE AND ALONG THE
WARM FRONT LATE WED AFTERNOON/EVENING SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE AREA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOOK TO ON THURSDAY.
EVEN WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER
WILL BE IN PLACE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE KS DUE TO GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS. HOWEVER...THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY LOOKS TO BE THU.
THIS IS WHEN STRONG NW WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ALONG WITH RH`S IN THE 35-45% RANGE. WIND SPEEDS THU
AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 79 56 71 38 / 30 30 10 0
HUTCHINSON 74 52 67 37 / 30 20 10 0
NEWTON 77 54 67 38 / 40 30 10 0
ELDORADO 80 60 69 40 / 40 40 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 82 61 72 41 / 40 30 10 0
RUSSELL 60 46 63 35 / 20 20 10 10
GREAT BEND 65 46 64 35 / 20 10 10 0
SALINA 70 50 65 35 / 30 30 20 10
MCPHERSON 72 51 66 36 / 30 30 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 82 65 76 43 / 40 40 30 10
CHANUTE 81 64 73 41 / 40 50 30 10
IOLA 80 63 72 40 / 40 50 30 10
PARSONS-KPPF 81 64 74 42 / 40 50 30 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
951 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 950 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
LATEST DATA ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR KMCI-
KEMP-KVNX. IT IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTH AS OF 1430Z. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES VIA LAPS ARE 40-50 KNOTS ALONG THE FRONT WITH 0-1KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THIS MEANS THAT CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR...EXPERIMENTAL HRRR...AND THE RAP ARE
SUGGESTING CONVECTIVE INITIATION EARLIER...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS
19-20Z. THIS IS LIKELY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEING
FURTHER EAST THAN SOME OF THE PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE MODELS. MOREOVER...TRENDS
HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING STORMS SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST...BUT WANT TO
HOLD OFF ON MAKING ANY CONCLUSIONS ON THAT UNTIL IT IS VERY CLEAR.
RIGHT NOW...THINKING THE THREAT AREA IS STILL FINE WITH INITIATION
AROUND 20Z.
KRC
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TRACKING OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED
OVER SE CO WITH THE SYNOPTIC FRONT STRETCHING FROM JUST NORTH OF
KGAG TO BETWEEN KCNU AND KPPF. MEANWHILE...A LOSE DRYLINE EXTENDS
ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE AND INTO WEST TX.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
ELEVATED STORMS DEVELOPED A COUPLE HOURS AGO OVER THE FLINT HILLS
IN RESPONSE TO A RAPID INCREASE IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE
850-700MB LAYER. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART STAY
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOK LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CURRENTLY HAVE A LEAN TO THE RAP13 DUE TO ITS PERFORMANCE
WITH THE CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS OVER
SE KS. IN ADDITION...IT SEEMS TO BE DOING A DECENT JOB CAPTURING
THE CURRENT ELEVATED CONVECTION. THE GFS LIFTS THE WARM FRONT
MUCH FURTHER NORTH COMPARED TO THE NAM AND RAP WITH THE FRONT
ALONG I-70. MEANWHILE THE RAP AND NAM LIFT THE FRONT TO JUST NORTH
OF KICT TO SOUTH OF KSLN.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE TRIPLE POINT BY LATE AFTERNOON WILL
BE SITUATED JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR OR JUST NORTH
OF KGAG WITH THE SYNOPTIC FRONT EXTENDING TO THE NORTHEAST NEAR
KICT AND THEN TO NEAR KEMP. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LEAD
IMPULSE/JET MAX OVER NORTHERN BAJA. EXPECTING STORMS TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT AS THIS FEATURE MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CAN THEN BE EXPECTED NORTHEAST
ALONG THE SYNOPTIC FRONT. IT SEEMS WITH EACH MODEL RUN THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY AND THE 00Z RUNS WERE NO
EXCEPTION...WITH AROUND 50KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND 65-80KTS OF
0-8KM SHEAR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS. THESE SHEAR VALUES WILL COMBINE
WITH 2000-3000J/KG OF CAPE TO ALLOW ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS TO
QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. THE SCARY PART IS THAT WITH THE
RETREATING DRYLINE AFTER 00Z...THE ENVIRONMENT ACTUALLY BECOMES
MORE FAVORABLE AFTER DARK AS WINDS BACK AND THE LOW LEVEL JET GETS
GOING. SO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO GET A TORNADO AFTER DARK OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL KS. THE BEST TORNADO POTENTIAL TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 99. IF THE NAM AND RAP13
VERIFIES...SEVERE STORMS OVER CENTRAL KS WOULD BE LESS LIKELY.
BY 12Z THU...THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN
KS/NEBRASKA WITH THE SYNOPTIC FRONT CATCHING UP TO THE DRYLINE AND
SURGING EAST. WHILE THERE MAYBE SOME REMNANT STORMS OVER SE KS
AROUND SUNRISE...THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY AFTER 15Z THU WILL BE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER CHANCES
FOR PRECIP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THU.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENCOMPASS THE PLAINS FOR FRI
WITH TEMPS FINALLY GETTING BACK TO SEASONAL VALUES. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF BRING A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM OUT OF THE BAJA REGION
AND INTO WEST TX BY SUN EVENING. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SAT BUT THE
BETTER PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO ARRIVE SUN NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MON WHEN THE IMPULSE LIFTS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE GFS HAS
THIS FEATURE QUITE A BIT FURTHER WEST COMPARED TO THE ECMWF WHICH
RESULTS IN THE ECMWF BEING THE WETTER SOLUTION.
LAWSON
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2015
IFR/LIFR CIGS CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WHILE SEVERE STORMS LINGER ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH
THE PREDAWN HOURS. A WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY ALLOWING MVFR/VFR TO RETURN DURING THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
WITH SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A DRY LINE AND ALONG THE
WARM FRONT LATE WED AFTERNOON/EVENING SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE AREA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOOK TO ON THURSDAY.
EVEN WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER
WILL BE IN PLACE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE KS DUE TO GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS. HOWEVER...THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY LOOKS TO BE THU.
THIS IS WHEN STRONG NW WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ALONG WITH RH`S IN THE 35-45% RANGE. WIND SPEEDS THU
AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 79 56 71 38 / 30 30 10 0
HUTCHINSON 74 52 67 37 / 30 20 10 0
NEWTON 77 54 67 38 / 40 30 10 0
ELDORADO 80 60 69 40 / 40 40 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 82 61 72 41 / 40 30 10 0
RUSSELL 60 46 63 35 / 20 20 10 10
GREAT BEND 65 46 64 35 / 20 10 10 0
SALINA 70 50 65 35 / 30 30 20 10
MCPHERSON 72 51 66 36 / 30 30 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 82 65 76 43 / 40 40 30 10
CHANUTE 81 64 73 41 / 40 50 30 10
IOLA 80 63 72 40 / 40 50 30 10
PARSONS-KPPF 81 64 74 42 / 40 50 30 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
333 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TRACKING OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED
OVER SE CO WITH THE SYNOPTIC FRONT STRETCHING FROM JUST NORTH OF
KGAG TO BETWEEN KCNU AND KPPF. MEANWHILE...A LOSE DRYLINE EXTENDS
ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE AND INTO WEST TX.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
ELEVATED STORMS DEVELOPED A COUPLE HOURS AGO OVER THE FLINT HILLS
IN RESPONSE TO A RAPID INCREASE IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE
850-700MB LAYER. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART STAY
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOK LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CURRENTLY HAVE A LEAN TO THE RAP13 DUE TO ITS PERFORMANCE
WITH THE CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS OVER
SE KS. IN ADDITION...IT SEEMS TO BE DOING A DECENT JOB CAPTURING
THE CURRENT ELEVATED CONVECTION. THE GFS LIFTS THE WARM FRONT
MUCH FURTHER NORTH COMPARED TO THE NAM AND RAP WITH THE FRONT
ALONG I-70. MEANWHILE THE RAP AND NAM LIFT THE FRONT TO JUST NORTH
OF KICT TO SOUTH OF KSLN.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE TRIPLE POINT BY LATE AFTERNOON WILL
BE SITUATED JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR OR JUST NORTH
OF KGAG WITH THE SYNOPTIC FRONT EXTENDING TO THE NORTHEAST NEAR
KICT AND THEN TO NEAR KEMP. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LEAD
IMPULSE/JET MAX OVER NORTHERN BAJA. EXPECTING STORMS TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT AS THIS FEATURE MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CAN THEN BE EXPECTED NORTHEAST
ALONG THE SYNOPTIC FRONT. IT SEEMS WITH EACH MODEL RUN THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY AND THE 00Z RUNS WERE NO
EXCEPTION...WITH AROUND 50KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND 65-80KTS OF
0-8KM SHEAR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS. THESE SHEAR VALUES WILL COMBINE
WITH 2000-3000J/KG OF CAPE TO ALLOW ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS TO
QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. THE SCARY PART IS THAT WITH THE
RETREATING DRYLINE AFTER 00Z...THE ENVIRONMENT ACTUALLY BECOMES
MORE FAVORABLE AFTER DARK AS WINDS BACK AND THE LOW LEVEL JET GETS
GOING. SO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO GET A TORNADO AFTER DARK OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL KS. THE BEST TORNADO POTENTIAL TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 99. IF THE NAM AND RAP13
VERIFIES...SEVERE STORMS OVER CENTRAL KS WOULD BE LESS LIKELY.
BY 12Z THU...THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN
KS/NEBRASKA WITH THE SYNOPTIC FRONT CATCHING UP TO THE DRYLINE AND
SURGING EAST. WHILE THERE MAYBE SOME REMNANT STORMS OVER SE KS
AROUND SUNRISE...THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY AFTER 15Z THU WILL BE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER CHANCES
FOR PRECIP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THU.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENCOMPASS THE PLAINS FOR FRI
WITH TEMPS FINALLY GETTING BACK TO SEASONAL VALUES. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF BRING A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM OUT OF THE BAJA REGION
AND INTO WEST TX BY SUN EVENING. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SAT BUT THE
BETTER PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO ARRIVE SUN NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MON WHEN THE IMPULSE LIFTS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE GFS HAS
THIS FEATURE QUITE A BIT FURTHER WEST COMPARED TO THE ECMWF WHICH
RESULTS IN THE ECMWF BEING THE WETTER SOLUTION.
LAWSON
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2015
IFR/LIFR CIGS CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WHILE SEVERE STORMS LINGER ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH
THE PREDAWN HOURS. A WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY ALLOWING MVFR/VFR TO RETURN DURING THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
WITH SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A DRY LINE AND ALONG THE
WARM FRONT LATE WED AFTERNOON/EVENING SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE AREA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOOK TO ON THURSDAY.
EVEN WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER
WILL BE IN PLACE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE KS DUE TO GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS. HOWEVER...THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY LOOKS TO BE THU.
THIS IS WHEN STRONG NW WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ALONG WITH RH`S IN THE 35-45% RANGE. WIND SPEEDS THU
AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 84 55 71 40 / 30 30 10 0
HUTCHINSON 80 51 68 37 / 30 20 10 0
NEWTON 81 53 68 39 / 30 30 10 0
ELDORADO 82 59 70 40 / 30 40 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 83 60 74 42 / 30 30 10 0
RUSSELL 70 47 64 34 / 20 20 20 10
GREAT BEND 74 47 65 34 / 20 10 10 0
SALINA 73 50 65 36 / 30 30 20 10
MCPHERSON 77 50 67 37 / 30 30 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 81 65 77 44 / 30 40 30 10
CHANUTE 80 64 75 42 / 30 50 30 10
IOLA 79 63 75 42 / 40 50 30 10
PARSONS-KPPF 81 64 76 43 / 30 50 30 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1033 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1033 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
JUST SENT OUT ONE LAST UPDATE TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING.
UPSTREAM RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING THE NEAREST THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
AREA CURRENTLY MOVING INTO FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWESTERN
INDIANA. BASED ON THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THE
INDIVIDUAL STORMS...AND THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE LINE AS THE
WHOLE...IT APPEARS THAT IT MAY BE EVEN LATER BEFORE WE SEE THE
FIRST STORMS MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. AS IT
STANDS...PRECIP ONSET IS FORECAST TO OCCUR BETWEEN 6 AND 7Z IN OUR
FAR NORTHWEST AND WESTERN COUNTIES...WITH THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 9 AND 16Z ON FRIDAY. DAMAGING WINDS
GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY FLASH
FLOODING WILL REMAIN THREATS WITH THE LINE OF STORMS AS THEY TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. A NEW SET OF ZONES HAS ALREADY BEEN
ISSUED BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED GRID UPDATES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 813 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
ANOTHER UPDATE TO THE FORECAST GRIDS AND THE ZONE FORECAST TEXT
PRODUCT WERE NECESSARY THIS EVENING. BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE
AND RADAR TRENDS...IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION ONSET ACROSS THE
AREA WILL OCCUR A FEW HOURS LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. OVER
THE PAST HOUR OR SO THERE HAVE BEEN NO SHOWERS OR STORMS PRESENT
ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. BASED ON
UPSTREAM RADAR RETURNS...IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE MUCH LATER
TONIGHT BEFORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA.
THEREFORE...BOTH THE FORECAST GRIDS AND ZONES WERE UPDATED TO
REFLECT THIS NEW TREND. THE SAME ISSUES WITH THE STORMS WILL HOLD
TRUE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ALL STILL POSSIBLE. A LINE OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS NOW EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 8 AND 13Z ON FRIDAY. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
STILL IN EFFECT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
JUST UPDATED THE GRIDS...ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT...AND
HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCT TO ALL REFLECT THE CANCELLATION OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 40. WITH ONLY A FEW MEAGER THUNDERSTORMS
HAVING MOVED ACROSS THE AREA SO FAR THIS EVENING...AND WITH NO NEW
STORMS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA ANY TIME SOON...THE WATCH WAS
CANCELLED. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS STILL IN EFFECT. THE GRIDS
WERE ALSO FRESHENED UP A BIT USING THE LATEST OBS DATA ACROSS THE
BOARD. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CURRENT CONDITIONS TO DETERMINE
WHEN TO ISSUE THE NEXT FORECAST UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM WITH EASTERN
KENTUCKY REMAINING UNDER BROAD SW FLOW TODAY BEFORE AN UL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO OUR
NORTH...HELPING TO FOCUS SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE CONVECTION SO
FAR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH BEST
CHANCES ALONG THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE A SPC SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. AND AS THE UL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL HEIGHT FALLS AND UL
ENERGY...THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE.
HIGH RES MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND NAM12 BOTH INDICATE A
LULL IN CONVECTION TONIGHT AFTER THE DIURNAL CONVECTION WANES
AND BEFORE THE COLD FRONT REACHES OUR AREA. AS SUCH...HAVE
INDICATED A DECREASE IN SHOWERS/CONVECTION DURING THAT TIME IN
THE POP/SKY/WX GRIDS. BY THE TIME THE COLD FRONT REACHES KY AROUND
06Z...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NUMEROUS AND WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE STATE. PER LATEST MODEL OUTPUT AND
SOUNDINGS...A CONVECTIVE LINE COULD DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A THREAT OF HIGH WINDS
AND HEAVY RAIN. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE CONVECTION FORMS WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATER TONIGHT...BUT IT IS LIKELY THAT THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. THERE WONT BE THE
ADDED BENEFIT OF DAYTIME HEATING BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MID TO
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION TO SUSTAIN ITSELF. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD THEN EXIT EASTERN KY BY 18Z...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY
COOLER...DRIER AIR AND N TO NW FLOW.
THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY CUT OFF ANY
REMAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND DRY THE AIR...DECREASING
HUMIDITY LEVELS SUBSTANTIALLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES
TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL VALUES...IN THE MID 60S...ON SATURDAY
AS A HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVERHEAD. THIS IS A BIG CHANGE FROM
TODAY/S TEMPERATURES WHICH HAVE SURPASSED THE 80 DEGREE MARK
FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WHICH SHOULD LAST INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. BY THEN THE HIGH WILL BE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST...AND
MODELS SHOW GULF MOISTURE TRYING TO MAKE A RETURN TO THE NORTH AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NW. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THIS
FRONT WILL BRING A QUICK CHANCE AT SOME SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE 12Z RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW
SUGGEST MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO OUR NORTH...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH AND KEEPS MOISTURE AT BAY.
HOWEVER...WITH THIS BEING A RECENT CHANGE...HAVE ONLY TRENDED THE
POP LOWER INSTEAD OF REMOVING PRECIP FROM THE FORECAST. 12Z RUNS
SHOW A RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY AND HAVE CONTINUED CHANCE POPS
FOR SHOWERS AT THAT TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 813 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 6Z
TONIGHT. BETWEEN 6 AND 8Z LOOKS TO BE THE TIME FRAME WHEN THE
FIRST SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGIN TO APPROACH THE TAF SITES. A LINE
OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BETWEEN ROUGHLY 8 AND 13Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
DURING MOST OF THIS PERIOD...BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE SHORT
PERIODS OF TIME WHERE THE RAIN AND WIND WILL BE INTENSE ENOUGH TO
YIELD IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS DURING THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE
PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN WINDING DOWN AT THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 12 AND
13Z. THE TAF SITES SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE BY BETWEEN 16 AND 18Z.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
850 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CLOUD TOPS ARE CONTINUING TO
COOL...SUGGESTING AN OVERALL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN RATHER DISORGANIZED ON RADAR UP TO THIS POINT.
HOWEVER...THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR ORGANIZATION OF A LINEAR SQUALL
LINE RIGHT ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE LATEST HRRR INDICATES THE
CONVECTIVE LINE WILL BE ORIENTED ROUGHLY ALONG A KEVV/KPAH LINE
AROUND 06Z. INSTABILITY HAS BEEN SLOW TO WANE DUE TO A STRONG WARM
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE KPAH RADAR VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS 50 KNOT
WINDS AT 925 MB. THIS SHOULD SUSTAIN CONVECTION THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z. AFTER 06Z...RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES 850 MB WINDS WILL VEER
WESTERLY AND POTENTIALLY REDUCE STORM INFLOW. EXPECT A DECREASE IN
ACTIVITY AFTER 06Z. THE MAIN HAZARDS CONTINUE TO BE ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL IN THE STRONGER CORES...AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY IN ANY
BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. A TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY PRIOR TO THE VEERING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
A CAP JUST ABOVE THE LCL SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF
DEEP MOIST CONVECTION ACROSS THE PAH FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE HAVE BEEN RADAR RETURNS...BUT LITTLE IF ANY MEASURABLE PCPN.
THE TROP CONTINUES TO HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR THE 99TH
PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DISCRETE ROBUST CONVECTION
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LACK OF A WELL-DEFINED TRIGGER SHOULD VANISH WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF A POTENT MID LEVEL SHRTWV AND SFC COLD FRONT THIS EVENING...AS
A TIGHT SFC LOW ROCKETS NEWD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. MODEST LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY...AT LEAST IN THE EVENING...WILL COMBINE WITH
0-3KM BULK WIND SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS FOR THE GENERATION OF
SEVERE TSTMS THIS EVENING...PROBABLY IN A SOLID OR BROKEN SQUALL
LINE. FORECASTED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT OFF THE
CHARTS...BUT SHOULD NOT LIMIT DEVELOPMENT MUCH. HELICITY VALUES
SUGGEST THAT A TORNADO OR TWO MIGHT OCCUR.
ATTM...UP TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION
BEFORE THE EVENT ENDS BY 12Z FRI. THOUGH WE HAVE NOT RECEIVED ANY
HEAVY RAIN TODAY...FOR CONSISTENCY`S SAKE...WE WILL LEAVE THE
FLOOD WATCH FOR NRN PARTS OF THE AREA IN PLACE THROUGH THE
EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE CURRENT AIRMASS WILL BE REPLACED BY A COOLER DRIER ONE OF
PACIFIC ORIGIN FOR FRI AND THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE
COOLEST TEMPS SHOULD BE SAT MORNING...BUT NO LOWER THAN ABOUT 40.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED.
GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY ON IN THE EXTENDED WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIPPING
OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTHERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE HEARTLAND.
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM SUNDAY BUT MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY WITH BEST CHANCE OF ANY RAIN WILL BE MAINLY WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
STALLS OVER THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THUS WILL KEEP A CHANCE IN
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK TO THE NORTH KEEPING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA.
BY THURSDAY WE ARE WARM SECTORED VERY WELL MUCH LIKE THIS MORNING.
SO WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR CLAP OF THUNDER THURSDAY
BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE SLIM. OF COURSE THE FINAL CALL WILL COME
AFTER THE EXTENDED INIT IS RUN AND WHAT COLLABORATION YIELDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THEN RISE TO AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 850 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A ROBUST SRLY/SWRLY SFC WIND AHEAD OF A
VIGOROUS COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
AROUND MIDNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THIS TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. INTERMITTENT MVFR
CIGS ARE PROBABLE THIS EVENING WITH THE CONVECTION...WITH SEVERE
WEATHER POSSIBLE JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WEST WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT. THE WINDS MAY BE GUSTY IN
STORMS AS WELL AS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR ILZ075>078-080>087-
091.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR MOZ076.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ010-014>016-
018>021.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MY
SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...MY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
814 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 813 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
ANOTHER UPDATE TO THE FORECAST GRIDS AND THE ZONE FORECAST TEXT
PRODUCT WERE NECESSARY THIS EVENING. BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE
AND RADAR TRENDS...IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION ONSET ACROSS THE
AREA WILL OCCUR A FEW HOURS LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. OVER
THE PAST HOUR OR SO THERE HAVE BEEN NO SHOWERS OR STORMS PRESENT
ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. BASED ON
UPSTREAM RADAR RETURNS...IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE MUCH LATER
TONIGHT BEFORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA.
THEREFORE...BOTH THE FORECAST GRIDS AND ZONES WERE UPDATED TO
REFLECT THIS NEW TREND. THE SAME ISSUES WITH THE STORMS WILL HOLD
TRUE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ALL STILL POSSIBLE. A LINE OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS NOW EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 8 AND 13Z ON FRIDAY. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
STILL IN EFFECT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
JUST UPDATED THE GRIDS...ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT...AND
HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCT TO ALL REFLECT THE CANCELLATION OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 40. WITH ONLY A FEW MEAGER THUNDERSTORMS
HAVING MOVED ACROSS THE AREA SO FAR THIS EVENING...AND WITH NO NEW
STORMS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA ANY TIME SOON...THE WATCH WAS
CANCELLED. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS STILL IN EFFECT. THE GRIDS
WERE ALSO FRESHENED UP A BIT USING THE LATEST OBS DATA ACROSS THE
BOARD. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CURRENT CONDITIONS TO DETERMINE
WHEN TO ISSUE THE NEXT FORECAST UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM WITH EASTERN
KENTUCKY REMAINING UNDER BROAD SW FLOW TODAY BEFORE AN UL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO OUR
NORTH...HELPING TO FOCUS SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE CONVECTION SO
FAR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH BEST
CHANCES ALONG THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE A SPC SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. AND AS THE UL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL HEIGHT FALLS AND UL
ENERGY...THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE.
HIGH RES MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND NAM12 BOTH INDICATE A
LULL IN CONVECTION TONIGHT AFTER THE DIURNAL CONVECTION WANES
AND BEFORE THE COLD FRONT REACHES OUR AREA. AS SUCH...HAVE
INDICATED A DECREASE IN SHOWERS/CONVECTION DURING THAT TIME IN
THE POP/SKY/WX GRIDS. BY THE TIME THE COLD FRONT REACHES KY AROUND
06Z...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NUMEROUS AND WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE STATE. PER LATEST MODEL OUTPUT AND
SOUNDINGS...A CONVECTIVE LINE COULD DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A THREAT OF HIGH WINDS
AND HEAVY RAIN. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE CONVECTION FORMS WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATER TONIGHT...BUT IT IS LIKELY THAT THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. THERE WONT BE THE
ADDED BENEFIT OF DAYTIME HEATING BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MID TO
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION TO SUSTAIN ITSELF. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD THEN EXIT EASTERN KY BY 18Z...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY
COOLER...DRIER AIR AND N TO NW FLOW.
THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY CUT OFF ANY
REMAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND DRY THE AIR...DECREASING
HUMIDITY LEVELS SUBSTANTIALLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES
TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL VALUES...IN THE MID 60S...ON SATURDAY
AS A HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVERHEAD. THIS IS A BIG CHANGE FROM
TODAY/S TEMPERATURES WHICH HAVE SURPASSED THE 80 DEGREE MARK
FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WHICH SHOULD LAST INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. BY THEN THE HIGH WILL BE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST...AND
MODELS SHOW GULF MOISTURE TRYING TO MAKE A RETURN TO THE NORTH AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NW. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THIS
FRONT WILL BRING A QUICK CHANCE AT SOME SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE 12Z RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW
SUGGEST MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO OUR NORTH...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH AND KEEPS MOISTURE AT BAY.
HOWEVER...WITH THIS BEING A RECENT CHANGE...HAVE ONLY TRENDED THE
POP LOWER INSTEAD OF REMOVING PRECIP FROM THE FORECAST. 12Z RUNS
SHOW A RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY AND HAVE CONTINUED CHANCE POPS
FOR SHOWERS AT THAT TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 813 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 6Z
TONIGHT. BETWEEN 6 AND 8Z LOOKS TO BE THE TIME FRAME WHEN THE
FIRST SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGIN TO APPROACH THE TAF SITES. A LINE
OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BETWEEN ROUGHLY 8 AND 13Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
DURING MOST OF THIS PERIOD...BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE SHORT
PERIODS OF TIME WHERE THE RAIN AND WIND WILL BE INTENSE ENOUGH TO
YIELD IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS DURING THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE
PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN WINDING DOWN AT THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 12 AND
13Z. THE TAF SITES SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE BY BETWEEN 16 AND 18Z.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
649 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2015
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 525 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2015
The Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been converted to a Tornado Watch
across southern IN and has been extended until 10 PM EDT. Backed low
level flow and organized storms along the boundary have led to some
cells with significant rotation. Winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes
will be possible. South of the watch area, hail will continue to be
possible over the next couple of hours. This activity should then
diminish later this evening.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2015
...More Strong Storms Possible This Evening and Tomorrow...
Multiple boundaries have set up across the region this afternoon.
SPC mesoanalysis shows all the CIN from earlier in the day has
eroded and we have become moderately unstable with 2500-3500 J/kg CAPE.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for southern Indiana for
this afternoon and early evening. However, given the multiple
boundaries and possibility for strong storms elsewhere around the
forecast area, extensions to the Watch are not out of the question
this afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main
threats this afternoon, though a tornado or two cannot be ruled out
completely. The other concern for tonight will be the possibility of
training thunderstorms, particularly across southern IN and north
central KY. The latest runs of the HRRR have been suggesting this.
Given that flash flood values are under an inch an hour and storms
may train in this area, have gone ahead and issued a Flash Flood
Watch starting late this afternoon and continuing through tomorrow
night.
There should be a relative lull in the storms for much of the
overnight period as any storms that develop this afternoon will move
out late this evening. Think another complex associated with a weak
upper level wave will move in early tomorrow morning and continue
through the morning hours. Some small hail and gusty winds will be
possible with these storms.
There should be at least a short break in storm coverage tomorrow
afternoon ahead of the more significant chance for severe weather
along and ahead of the cold front tomorrow night. Moisture will pool
ahead of the front with strong southerly winds through the afternoon
tomorrow. Forcing will come from the upper level trough moving in
and an upper level jet. Shear will increase and hodographs exhibit
favorable clockwise curving tomorrow night. A broken line of showers
and thunderstorms looks to develop to our west congeal into a line
as it moves into the forecast area tomorrow evening. Damaging winds
will be the the main threat with the squall line, with a few
embedded tornadoes possible. If any cells do develop ahead of the
main line hail could be a threat as well.
Due to the repeated areas of convection moving across the region,
have kept the Flash Flood Watch in place through tomorrow night.
Repeated rains will only exacerbate or renew flooding problems.
.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 241 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2015
Not much has changed in the thinking for the long term period. Due
to the ongoing storms an updated discussion will not be issued this
afternoon. The previous discussion is below.
Previous discussion
-------------------
Cold front should pass through the area during the pre-dawn hours
Friday in our west then sweep across the rest of central Kentucky
during the early morning hours. Westerly flow will bring in a drier
and quieter pattern Friday night.
Plan on a pleasant, sunny and seasonable Saturday with high pressure
over the lower Ohio Valley. Sunday will start off in similar fashion
but as the high quickly moves to the east, southerly return flow
will begin to push another slug of warm, moist air to the region.
Shower chances return Sunday night through Monday as a trough digs
across the central Plains. High-end chance to likely POPs look
reasonable early next week with near normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 645 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2015
Scattered thunderstorms will continue across north central KY for
the next few hours. These storms will continue to affect SDF and LEX
off an on. Storms are expected to diminish by 03Z or so with drier
conditions for much of the rest of the night. A few showers may
develop around BWG over the next few hours, but storms are not
expected at this time.
The next complex of storms will begin to move in around 11-12Z.
These will affect all TAF sites tomorrow morning, moving out early
afternoon. Winds will increase tomorrow afternoon as a cold front
begins to approach from the west. South-southwesterly winds will be
sustained up to around 15 knots with gusts of 20-25 knots.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late Thursday night FOR KYZ023>025-
028>043-045>049-053>057-066-067.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late Thursday night FOR INZ076>079-083-
084-089>092.
&&
$$
Update.........EER
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......EER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
526 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2015
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 525 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2015
The Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been converted to a Tornado Watch
across southern IN and has been extended until 10 PM EDT. Backed low
level flow and organized storms along the boundary have led to some
cells with significant rotation. Winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes
will be possible. South of the watch area, hail will continue to be
possible over the next couple of hours. This activity should then
diminish later this evening.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2015
...More Strong Storms Possible This Evening and Tomorrow...
Multiple boundaries have set up across the region this afternoon.
SPC mesoanalysis shows all the CIN from earlier in the day has
eroded and we have become moderately unstable with 2500-3500 J/kg CAPE.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for southern Indiana for
this afternoon and early evening. However, given the multiple
boundaries and possibility for strong storms elsewhere around the
forecast area, extensions to the Watch are not out of the question
this afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main
threats this afternoon, though a tornado or two cannot be ruled out
completely. The other concern for tonight will be the possibility of
training thunderstorms, particularly across southern IN and north
central KY. The latest runs of the HRRR have been suggesting this.
Given that flash flood values are under an inch an hour and storms
may train in this area, have gone ahead and issued a Flash Flood
Watch starting late this afternoon and continuing through tomorrow
night.
There should be a relative lull in the storms for much of the
overnight period as any storms that develop this afternoon will move
out late this evening. Think another complex associated with a weak
upper level wave will move in early tomorrow morning and continue
through the morning hours. Some small hail and gusty winds will be
possible with these storms.
There should be at least a short break in storm coverage tomorrow
afternoon ahead of the more significant chance for severe weather
along and ahead of the cold front tomorrow night. Moisture will pool
ahead of the front with strong southerly winds through the afternoon
tomorrow. Forcing will come from the upper level trough moving in
and an upper level jet. Shear will increase and hodographs exhibit
favorable clockwise curving tomorrow night. A broken line of showers
and thunderstorms looks to develop to our west congeal into a line
as it moves into the forecast area tomorrow evening. Damaging winds
will be the the main threat with the squall line, with a few
embedded tornadoes possible. If any cells do develop ahead of the
main line hail could be a threat as well.
Due to the repeated areas of convection moving across the region,
have kept the Flash Flood Watch in place through tomorrow night.
Repeated rains will only exacerbate or renew flooding problems.
.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 241 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2015
Not much has changed in the thinking for the long term period. Due
to the ongoing storms an updated discussion will not be issued this
afternoon. The previous discussion is below.
Previous discussion
-------------------
Cold front should pass through the area during the pre-dawn hours
Friday in our west then sweep across the rest of central Kentucky
during the early morning hours. Westerly flow will bring in a drier
and quieter pattern Friday night.
Plan on a pleasant, sunny and seasonable Saturday with high pressure
over the lower Ohio Valley. Sunday will start off in similar fashion
but as the high quickly moves to the east, southerly return flow
will begin to push another slug of warm, moist air to the region.
Shower chances return Sunday night through Monday as a trough digs
across the central Plains. High-end chance to likely POPs look
reasonable early next week with near normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1248 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2015
Scattered thunderstorms are still expected to develop this
afternoon, though have pushed back the timing of VCTS in the TAFs
for a couple of hours. There is still a lot of uncertainty in when
and where the storms will develop so have kept the VCTS as opposed
to introducing TSRA at this time. Those with aviation interests
should keep a close eye on the radar this afternoon.
Expect a decrease in coverage of storms this evening with much of
the night remaining dry at the TAF sites. Another complex looks to
move in early tomorrow morning from the west bringing more showers
and thunderstorms. These should move out by early afternoon.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late Thursday night FOR KYZ023>025-
028>043-045>049-053>057-066-067.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late Thursday night FOR INZ076>079-083-
084-089>092.
&&
$$
Update.........EER
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......EER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
522 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 455 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL SHOW SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER KENTUCKY
WITH POCKETS OF ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION EVERY FEW HOURS.
SOME HEIGHT FALLS WILL GET INTO THE MIX ON THURSDAY AS A LARGER
TROUGH SWEETS EAST AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE KEY TO THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BE THE SMALLER FEATURES THAT THE HIGHER RES
MODELS...SUCH AS THE HRRR/NAM12...HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
CATCHING. THAT BEING SAID...THE CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW GIVEN
THE SMALL SCALE FEATURES AT PLAY.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER IT HAS BEEN QUITE AN ACTIVE DAY ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY SO FAR... WITH THE LAST PORTION OF THE MORNING
CONVECTION NOW PUSHING OUT OF FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY. BUT THE BIG
QUESTION IS...IS HOW THE CONVECTION NOW FORMING IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY
WILL SOLIDIFY INTO A COMPLEX AND MOVE EWD... OR IF ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION WILL FORM IN EASTERN KENTUCKY AND TRAIN. THE LATEST
HRRR INDICATES MULTIPLE AREAS OF CONVECTION FORMING AND MOVING
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA INTO TOMORROW MORNING....WHEREAS THE
NAM12 DOESNT SHOW MUCH OF ANYTHING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. BUT GIVEN
THE CURRENT INSTABILITY PARAMETERS...CURRENT CONVECTION OUT IN
CENTRAL KY... AND THE FACT THAT THE HRRR DID A GOOD JOB AT
CAPTURING THE DAYTIME CONVECTION... HAVE HEDGED TOWARDS THE HRRR
SOLUTION AND INCREASED TO LIKELY POPS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH 03Z.
HAVE ALSO ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 15Z THURSDAY FOR THE
THREAT OF TRAINING CONVECTION OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
THE SET UP FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
MORNING LOOKS SIMILAR TO TODAY...IF NOT BETTER...AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SO HAVE CONTINUED THE FAIRLY HIGH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 521 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL BE PASSING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION AS THE
PERIOD STARTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...BUT SHOULD COME TO AN ABRUPT END AFTER FROPA DURING
THE DAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
THEN PROVIDE COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
AS THE HIGH SLIPS TO THE EAST...WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A
WEAK WARM FRONT TRYING TO DEVELOP WILL PRESENT A LOW PROBABILITY
OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD
SHOW UP ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES IN
FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH THE FLOW OFF THE GULF. ONCE THIS IMPULSE
LIFTS OUT...WE WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR. WEAKER DISTURBANCES
ALOFT MAY AID SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT TIMES TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BUT THE TIMING WILL BE NONSPECIFIC AT THIS
LONG RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015
TAIL END OF A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS AFFECTING THE EASTERN EDGE
OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS SHOULD EXIT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP
UP...BUT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO TIMING/LOCATION/COVERAGE.
ASIDE FROM KSJS...HAVE ONLY USED VCTS IN TAFS THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTED A LESS FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL PROFILE
FOR CONVECTION DEVELOPING EARLY THIS EVENING...AND HAVE ALLOWED
FOR A BREAK IN CONVECTION DURING THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS IS ONCE
AGAIN A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...AND IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS AND
SHOWS PROMISE DURING THE NIGHT...THE FORECAST WILL BE SUBJECT TO
CHANGE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS
AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...AND VCTS
WAS AGAIN USED. PRECIP MAY BRING IFR...AND COULD ALLOW FOG TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT IF THE LOW LEVELS ARE LEFT SATURATED ANYWHERE.
HOWEVER...WITHOUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS...HAVE USED PREVAILING VFR.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
104.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JVM/GREIF
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
313 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2015
.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2015
...More Strong Storms Possible This Evening and Tomorrow...
Multiple boundaries have set up across the region this afternoon.
SPC mesoanalysis shows all the CIN from earlier in the day has
eroded and we have become moderately unstable with 2500-3500 J/kg CAPE.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for southern Indiana for
this afternoon and early evening. However, given the multiple
boundaries and possibility for strong storms elsewhere around the
forecast area, extensions to the Watch are not out of the question
this afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main
threats this afternoon, though a tornado or two cannot be ruled out
completely. The other concern for tonight will be the possibility of
training thunderstorms, particularly across southern IN and north
central KY. The latest runs of the HRRR have been suggesting this.
Given that flash flood values are under an inch an hour and storms
may train in this area, have gone ahead and issued a Flash Flood
Watch starting late this afternoon and continuing through tomorrow
night.
There should be a relative lull in the storms for much of the
overnight period as any storms that develop this afternoon will move
out late this evening. Think another complex associated with a weak
upper level wave will move in early tomorrow morning and continue
through the morning hours. Some small hail and gusty winds will be
possible with these storms.
There should be at least a short break in storm coverage tomorrow
afternoon ahead of the more significant chance for severe weather
along and ahead of the cold front tomorrow night. Moisture will pool
ahead of the front with strong southerly winds through the afternoon
tomorrow. Forcing will come from the upper level trough moving in
and an upper level jet. Shear will increase and hodographs exhibit
favorable clockwise curving tomorrow night. A broken line of showers
and thunderstorms looks to develop to our west congeal into a line
as it moves into the forecast area tomorrow evening. Damaging winds
will be the the main threat with the squall line, with a few
embedded tornadoes possible. If any cells do develop ahead of the
main line hail could be a threat as well.
Due to the repeated areas of convection moving across the region,
have kept the Flash Flood Watch in place through tomorrow night.
Repeated rains will only exacerbate or renew flooding problems.
.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 241 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2015
Not much has changed in the thinking for the long term period. Due
to the ongoing storms an updated discussion will not be issued this
afternoon. The previous discussion is below.
Previous discussion
-------------------
Cold front should pass through the area during the pre-dawn hours
Friday in our west then sweep across the rest of central Kentucky
during the early morning hours. Westerly flow will bring in a drier
and quieter pattern Friday night.
Plan on a pleasant, sunny and seasonable Saturday with high pressure
over the lower Ohio Valley. Sunday will start off in similar fashion
but as the high quickly moves to the east, southerly return flow
will begin to push another slug of warm, moist air to the region.
Shower chances return Sunday night through Monday as a trough digs
across the central Plains. High-end chance to likely POPs look
reasonable early next week with near normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1248 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2015
Scattered thunderstorms are still expected to develop this
afternoon, though have pushed back the timing of VCTS in the TAFs
for a couple of hours. There is still a lot of uncertainty in when
and where the storms will develop so have kept the VCTS as opposed
to introducing TSRA at this time. Those with aviation interests
should keep a close eye on the radar this afternoon.
Expect a decrease in coverage of storms this evening with much of
the night remaining dry at the TAF sites. Another complex looks to
move in early tomorrow morning from the west bringing more showers
and thunderstorms. These should move out by early afternoon.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late Thursday night FOR KYZ023>025-
028>043-045>049-053>057-066-067.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late Thursday night FOR INZ076>079-083-
084-089>092.
&&
$$
Short Term........EER
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........EER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
231 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015
BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS INCREASING POPS ALONG THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE SOUTHWESTERN
EXTENSION OF THE MCS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO. HAVE INCLUDED
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...WITHIN THE WX GRIDS FOR THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO CORRESPOND WITH THE SPC SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 32. ADDITIONALLY...UPDATED T AND TD GRIDS TO
ALIGN THEM WITH MOST RECENT OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO WEB SERVERS
AND NDFD.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
THE ARRIVAL OF LOWER CLOUDS FROM THE WEST HAS ALLOWED THE EARLIER
DENSE FOG TO BREAK UP AROUND DAWN. ACCORDINGLY...THIS UPDATE WAS
MAINLY TO REMOVE THE ADVISORY AND FOG MENTION...BUT ALSO UPDATED
THE POPS THROUGH NOON AND ADJUSTED TEMPS/DEW POINTS PER THE
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH UPDATES TO THE ZFP AND HWO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF
KENTUCKY PLACING THE AREA IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. THE
CONVECTION OF THE PAST DAY AND EVENING LEFT PLENTY OF GROUND
MOISTURE BEHIND AND NOW THAT CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OFF TO THE
EAST...EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP AND BECOME LOCALLY DENSE
THIS MORNING. ALREADY JKL...SME...AND LOZ ARE SEEING DENSE FOG. AS
A RESULT...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA THROUGH DAWN. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WHILE DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY
WITHIN A DEGREE OF THE DRY BULB TEMP...ALSO WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL SHOW SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
KENTUCKY WITH PACKETS OF ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION EVERY
FEW HOURS. SOME HEIGHT FALLS WILL GET INTO THE MIX LATE IN THE
PERIOD ON THURSDAY AS A LARGER TROUGH SWEEPS EAST AND INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THE KEY TO THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BE THE
SMALLER FEATURES THAT THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE OF CATCHING. EVEN SO...THE CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR
SOLUTION IS LOW SO THE FORECAST HAS AN ELEMENT OF HEDGING TO IT
WITH THE HRRR AND NAM12 FAVORED. THE NAM12 ACTUALLY DID A DECENT
JOB DEPICTING THE CONVECTION OF THE PAST DAY SO AM INCLINED TO
GIVE IT HIGHER WEIGHTING TODAY.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE A REPEAT OF TUESDAY WITH A CLUSTER
OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE CWA. THIS IS THE SAME PLACE THAT WAS HIT HARD YESTERDAY AND
PWS WILL BE SIMILAR TODAY...SO CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
THESE LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...THE UNCERTAINTY IS STILL TOO HIGH
BARRING OBVIOUS UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT SO WILL HIT THIS THREAT WITH
AN SPS FOR NOW. THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIE DOWN LATER IN THE
EVENING WITH PATCHY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE AGAIN...A CONCERN. THE
SET UP REMAINS SIMILAR FOR STORMS ON THURSDAY...IF NOT A TAD
BETTER AS THE MAIN TROUGH APPROACHES. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE CONTINUED
THE FAIRLY HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND COMPOSITE MODEL AS A STARTING POINT FOR
THE WINDS/T/TD GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 18-24 HOURS AND THE
SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON
TERRAIN FOR TONIGHT/S TEMPERATURES. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE
TO OR A BIT HIGHER THAN A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET VALUES THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED AND
ROTATING WITHIN IT...WILL PUSH FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
EASTWARD FROM 0Z FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
AND INTO THE DAY SATURDAY...THIS WAVE WILL WEAKEN AND CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EASTWARD...WHILE BUILDING HEIGHTS AND DEAMPLIFIED RIDGING
TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT OF THIS FLOW BECOMING ZONAL THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH A
SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING AND RIDING EASTWARD ACROSS KY LATE IN THE DAY
AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. UNFORTUNATELY FOR THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED...THE FEATURES ARE WELL AGREED UPON...BUT THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT IS NOT. SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING A UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE TX/NM AREA...CAUSING AMPLIFICATION
AND EVENTUALLY FALLING HEIGHTS ACROSS KY AS THE LOW STARTS TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY MONDAY...LOSING CONSIDERABLE
STRENGTH AS IT REACHES THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY TUESDAY.
MULTIPLE WEAKER SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE AROUND THESE CLOSED
LOWS...TRAVELING DIRECTLY INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE COLLOCATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON FRIDAY AND FOLLOW THE TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT EASTWARD AND
INTO THE STATE OF KY...STARTING OFF IN THE FAR WEST AROUND 0Z TO
3Z...AND REACHING THE JKL CWA BY LATE MORNING FRIDAY BEFORE QUICKLY
SHIFTING EASTWARD IN THE AFTERNOON...JUST AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXITS. BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED ALONG AND JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE QUICKLY TAPERING OFF
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH AND A STRONG SHOT OF DRIER AND COOLER
NRLY FLOW MOVES IN.
AS HEIGHTS BUILD SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO BE IN CHARGE...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES. THE COULD CREATE SOME RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT CONDITIONS FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS...AS WAS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST. BY SUNDAY...THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN ENCROACHING UPON THE REGION...WITH YET
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW LOCATED JUST TO OUR SW. STRONG SRLY FLOW WILL
TAKE HOLD...WHICH COUPLED WITH INSTABILITY/LIFT FROM THE NEARBY
SYSTEM...WILL CREATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY EVENING AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY. FINALLY...THE
FUN CONTINUES AS SEVERAL MORE SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION TO CONTINUE OUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. GIVEN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT
DISCREPANCIES OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS...CONTINUED WITH A MODEL
BLEND AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...ONE NOTE...IF THE GFS40 MODEL PANS
OUT...SOME OF THESE SYSTEMS COULD PUT DOWN SOME HEAVY RAINS...WITH
PWATS TOPPING OUT ABOVE 1.3 TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015
TAIL END OF A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS AFFECTING THE EASTERN EDGE
OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS SHOULD EXIT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP
UP...BUT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO TIMING/LOCATION/COVERAGE.
ASIDE FROM KSJS...HAVE ONLY USED VCTS IN TAFS THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTED A LESS FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL PROFILE
FOR CONVECTION DEVELOPING EARLY THIS EVENING...AND HAVE ALLOWED
FOR A BREAK IN CONVECTION DURING THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS IS ONCE
AGAIN A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...AND IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS AND
SHOWS PROMISE DURING THE NIGHT...THE FORECAST WILL BE SUBJECT TO
CHANGE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS
AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...AND VCTS
WAS AGAIN USED. PRECIP MAY BRING IFR...AND COULD ALLOW FOG TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT IF THE LOW LEVELS ARE LEFT SATURATED ANYWHERE.
HOWEVER...WITHOUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS...HAVE USED PREVAILING VFR.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
218 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015
DID A QUICK DATA LOAD AND BLEND TO UPDATE GRIDS WITH MOST RECENT
OBS. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS/SKY PER LATEST TRENDS WITH MCS THAT
CONTINUES TO PUSH ESE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1215 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015
BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS INCREASING POPS ALONG THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE SOUTHWESTERN
EXTENSION OF THE MCS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO. HAVE INCLUDED
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...WITHIN THE WX GRIDS FOR THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO CORRESPOND WITH THE SPC SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 32. ADDITIONALLY...UPDATED T AND TD GRIDS TO
ALIGN THEM WITH MOST RECENT OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO WEB SERVERS
AND NDFD.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
THE ARRIVAL OF LOWER CLOUDS FROM THE WEST HAS ALLOWED THE EARLIER
DENSE FOG TO BREAK UP AROUND DAWN. ACCORDINGLY...THIS UPDATE WAS
MAINLY TO REMOVE THE ADVISORY AND FOG MENTION...BUT ALSO UPDATED
THE POPS THROUGH NOON AND ADJUSTED TEMPS/DEWPOINTS PER THE LATEST
OBS AND TRENDS. THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS ALONG WITH UPDATES TO THE ZFP AND HWO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF
KENTUCKY PLACING THE AREA IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. THE
CONVECTION OF THE PAST DAY AND EVENING LEFT PLENTY OF GROUND
MOISTURE BEHIND AND NOW THAT CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OFF TO THE
EAST...EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP AND BECOME LOCALLY DENSE
THIS MORNING. ALREADY JKL...SME...AND LOZ ARE SEEING DENSE FOG. AS
A RESULT...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA THROUGH DAWN. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY WITHIN
A DEGREE OF THE DRY BULB TEMP...ALSO WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL SHOW SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
KENTUCKY WITH PACKETS OF ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION EVERY
FEW HOURS. SOME HEIGHT FALLS WILL GET INTO THE MIX LATE IN THE
PERIOD ON THURSDAY AS A LARGER TROUGH SWEEPS EAST AND INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THE KEY TO THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BE THE
SMALLER FEATURES THAT THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE OF CATCHING. EVEN SO...THE CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR
SOLUTION IS LOW SO THE FORECAST HAS AN ELEMENT OF HEDGING TO IT
WITH THE HRRR AND NAM12 FAVORED. THE NAM12 ACTUALLY DID A DECENT
JOB DEPICTING THE CONVECTION OF THE PAST DAY SO AM INCLINED TO
GIVE IT HIGHER WEIGHTING TODAY.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE A REPEAT OF TUESDAY WITH A CLUSTER
OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE CWA. THIS IS THE SAME PLACE THAT WAS HIT HARD YESTERDAY AND
PWS WILL BE SIMILAR TODAY...SO CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
THESE LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...THE UNCERTAINTY IS STILL TOO HIGH
BARRING OBVIOUS UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT SO WILL HIT THIS THREAT WITH
AN SPS FOR NOW. THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIE DOWN LATER IN THE
EVENING WITH PATCHY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE AGAIN...A CONCERN. THE
SET UP REMAINS SIMILAR FOR STORMS ON THURSDAY...IF NOT A TAD
BETTER AS THE MAIN TROUGH APPROACHES. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE CONTINUED
THE FAIRLY HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND COMPOSITE MODEL AS A STARTING POINT FOR
THE WINDS/T/TD GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 18-24 HOURS AND THE
SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON
TERRAIN FOR TONIGHT/S TEMPERATURES. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE
TO OR A BIT HIGHER THAN A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET VALUES THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED AND
ROTATING WITHIN IT...WILL PUSH FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
EASTWARD FROM 0Z FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
AND INTO THE DAY SATURDAY...THIS WAVE WILL WEAKEN AND CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EASTWARD...WHILE BUILDING HEIGHTS AND DEAMPLIFIED RIDGING
TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT OF THIS FLOW BECOMING ZONAL THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH A
SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING AND RIDING EASTWARD ACROSS KY LATE IN THE DAY
AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. UNFORTUNATELY FOR THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED...THE FEATURES ARE WELL AGREED UPON...BUT THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT IS NOT. SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING A UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE TX/NM AREA...CAUSING AMPLIFICATION
AND EVENTUALLY FALLING HEIGHTS ACROSS KY AS THE LOW STARTS TO MOVE
NEWARD DURING THE DAY MONDAY...LOSING CONSIDERABLE STRENGTH AS IT
REACHES THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY TUESDAY. MULTIPLE WEAKER
SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE AROUND THESE CLOSED LOWS...TRAVELING DIRECTLY
INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE COLLOCATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON FRIDAY AND FOLLOW THE TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT EASTWARD AND
INTO THE STATE OF KY...STARTING OFF IN THE FAR WEST AROUND 0Z TO
3Z...AND REACHING THE JKL CWA BY LATE MORNING FRIDAY BEFORE QUICKLY
SHIFTING EASTWARD IN THE AFTERNOON...JUST AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXITS. BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED ALONG AND JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE QUICKLY TAPERING OFF
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH AND A STRONG SHOT OF DRIER AND COOLER
NRLY FLOW MOVES IN.
AS HEIGHTS BUILD SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO BE IN CHARGE...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES. THE COULD CREATE SOME RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT CONDITIONS FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS...AS WAS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST. BY SUNDAY...THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN ENCROACHING UPON THE REGION...WITH YET
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW LOCATED JUST TO OUR SW. STRONG SRLY FLOW WILL
TAKE HOLD...WHICH COUPLED WITH INSTABILITY/LIFT FROM THE NEARBY
SYSTEM...WILL CREATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY EVENING AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY. FINALLY...THE
FUN CONTINUES AS SEVERAL MORE SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION TO CONTINUE OUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. GIVEN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT
DISCREPANCIES OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS...CONTINUED WITH A MODEL
BLEND AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...ONE NOTE...IF THE GFS40 MODEL PANS
OUT...SOME OF THESE SYSTEMS COULD PUT DOWN SOME HEAVY RAINS...WITH
PWATS TOPPING OUT ABOVE 1.3 TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
THE FOG PROVED TO BE FLEETING THIS MORNING AS A LAYER OF LOW TO
MID CLOUDS MOVED IN AND CLEARED OUT THE LOWER VIS. LATER TODAY
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE STAYED WITH A VCTS FOR THIS WITH MORE REFINEMENT
POSSIBLE WITH FUTURE TAF ISSUANCES AS THE TIMING AND EFFECTS OF
THIS NEXT WAVE BECOME MORE CLEAR. AFTER THIS WAVE OF ACTIVITY
PASSES PATCHY FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY MAINLY...IN THE
VALLEYS...AND HAVE ADDED SOME TO THE SME AND LOZ TAFS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH...OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1213 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015
BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS INCREASING POPS ALONG THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE SOUTHWESTERN
EXTENSION OF THE MCS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO. HAVE INCLUDED
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...WITHIN THE WX GRIDS FOR THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO CORRESPOND WITH THE SPC SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 32. ADDITIONALLY...UPDATED T AND TD GRIDS TO
ALIGN THEM WITH MOST RECENT OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO WEB SERVERS
AND NDFD.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
THE ARRIVAL OF LOWER CLOUDS FROM THE WEST HAS ALLOWED THE EARLIER
DENSE FOG TO BREAK UP AROUND DAWN. ACCORDINGLY...THIS UPDATE WAS
MAINLY TO REMOVE THE ADVISORY AND FOG MENTION...BUT ALSO UPDATED
THE POPS THROUGH NOON AND ADJUSTED TEMPS/DEWPOINTS PER THE LATEST
OBS AND TRENDS. THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS ALONG WITH UPDATES TO THE ZFP AND HWO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF
KENTUCKY PLACING THE AREA IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. THE
CONVECTION OF THE PAST DAY AND EVENING LEFT PLENTY OF GROUND
MOISTURE BEHIND AND NOW THAT CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OFF TO THE
EAST...EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP AND BECOME LOCALLY DENSE
THIS MORNING. ALREADY JKL...SME...AND LOZ ARE SEEING DENSE FOG. AS
A RESULT...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA THROUGH DAWN. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY WITHIN
A DEGREE OF THE DRY BULB TEMP...ALSO WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL SHOW SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
KENTUCKY WITH PACKETS OF ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION EVERY
FEW HOURS. SOME HEIGHT FALLS WILL GET INTO THE MIX LATE IN THE
PERIOD ON THURSDAY AS A LARGER TROUGH SWEEPS EAST AND INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THE KEY TO THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BE THE
SMALLER FEATURES THAT THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE OF CATCHING. EVEN SO...THE CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR
SOLUTION IS LOW SO THE FORECAST HAS AN ELEMENT OF HEDGING TO IT
WITH THE HRRR AND NAM12 FAVORED. THE NAM12 ACTUALLY DID A DECENT
JOB DEPICTING THE CONVECTION OF THE PAST DAY SO AM INCLINED TO
GIVE IT HIGHER WEIGHTING TODAY.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE A REPEAT OF TUESDAY WITH A CLUSTER
OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE CWA. THIS IS THE SAME PLACE THAT WAS HIT HARD YESTERDAY AND
PWS WILL BE SIMILAR TODAY...SO CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
THESE LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...THE UNCERTAINTY IS STILL TOO HIGH
BARRING OBVIOUS UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT SO WILL HIT THIS THREAT WITH
AN SPS FOR NOW. THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIE DOWN LATER IN THE
EVENING WITH PATCHY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE AGAIN...A CONCERN. THE
SET UP REMAINS SIMILAR FOR STORMS ON THURSDAY...IF NOT A TAD
BETTER AS THE MAIN TROUGH APPROACHES. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE CONTINUED
THE FAIRLY HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND COMPOSITE MODEL AS A STARTING POINT FOR
THE WINDS/T/TD GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 18-24 HOURS AND THE
SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON
TERRAIN FOR TONIGHT/S TEMPERATURES. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE
TO OR A BIT HIGHER THAN A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET VALUES THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED AND
ROTATING WITHIN IT...WILL PUSH FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
EASTWARD FROM 0Z FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
AND INTO THE DAY SATURDAY...THIS WAVE WILL WEAKEN AND CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EASTWARD...WHILE BUILDING HEIGHTS AND DEAMPLIFIED RIDGING
TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT OF THIS FLOW BECOMING ZONAL THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH A
SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING AND RIDING EASTWARD ACROSS KY LATE IN THE DAY
AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. UNFORTUNATELY FOR THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED...THE FEATURES ARE WELL AGREED UPON...BUT THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT IS NOT. SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING A UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE TX/NM AREA...CAUSING AMPLIFICATION
AND EVENTUALLY FALLING HEIGHTS ACROSS KY AS THE LOW STARTS TO MOVE
NEWARD DURING THE DAY MONDAY...LOSING CONSIDERABLE STRENGTH AS IT
REACHES THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY TUESDAY. MULTIPLE WEAKER
SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE AROUND THESE CLOSED LOWS...TRAVELING DIRECTLY
INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE COLLOCATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON FRIDAY AND FOLLOW THE TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT EASTWARD AND
INTO THE STATE OF KY...STARTING OFF IN THE FAR WEST AROUND 0Z TO
3Z...AND REACHING THE JKL CWA BY LATE MORNING FRIDAY BEFORE QUICKLY
SHIFTING EASTWARD IN THE AFTERNOON...JUST AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXITS. BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED ALONG AND JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE QUICKLY TAPERING OFF
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH AND A STRONG SHOT OF DRIER AND COOLER
NRLY FLOW MOVES IN.
AS HEIGHTS BUILD SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO BE IN CHARGE...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES. THE COULD CREATE SOME RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT CONDITIONS FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS...AS WAS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST. BY SUNDAY...THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN ENCROACHING UPON THE REGION...WITH YET
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW LOCATED JUST TO OUR SW. STRONG SRLY FLOW WILL
TAKE HOLD...WHICH COUPLED WITH INSTABILITY/LIFT FROM THE NEARBY
SYSTEM...WILL CREATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY EVENING AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY. FINALLY...THE
FUN CONTINUES AS SEVERAL MORE SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION TO CONTINUE OUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. GIVEN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT
DISCREPANCIES OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS...CONTINUED WITH A MODEL
BLEND AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...ONE NOTE...IF THE GFS40 MODEL PANS
OUT...SOME OF THESE SYSTEMS COULD PUT DOWN SOME HEAVY RAINS...WITH
PWATS TOPPING OUT ABOVE 1.3 TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
THE FOG PROVED TO BE FLEETING THIS MORNING AS A LAYER OF LOW TO
MID CLOUDS MOVED IN AND CLEARED OUT THE LOWER VIS. LATER TODAY
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE STAYED WITH A VCTS FOR THIS WITH MORE REFINEMENT
POSSIBLE WITH FUTURE TAF ISSUANCES AS THE TIMING AND EFFECTS OF
THIS NEXT WAVE BECOME MORE CLEAR. AFTER THIS WAVE OF ACTIVITY
PASSES PATCHY FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY MAINLY...IN THE
VALLEYS...AND HAVE ADDED SOME TO THE SME AND LOZ TAFS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH...OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
800 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
THE ARRIVAL OF LOWER CLOUDS FROM THE WEST HAS ALLOWED THE EARLIER
DENSE FOG TO BREAK UP AROUND DAWN. ACCORDINGLY...THIS UPDATE WAS
MAINLY TO REMOVE THE ADVISORY AND FOG MENTION...BUT ALSO UPDATED
THE POPS THROUGH NOON AND ADJUSTED TEMPS/DEWPOINTS PER THE LATEST
OBS AND TRENDS. THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS ALONG WITH UPDATES TO THE ZFP AND HWO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF
KENTUCKY PLACING THE AREA IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. THE
CONVECTION OF THE PAST DAY AND EVENING LEFT PLENTY OF GROUND
MOISTURE BEHIND AND NOW THAT CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OFF TO THE
EAST...EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP AND BECOME LOCALLY DENSE
THIS MORNING. ALREADY JKL...SME...AND LOZ ARE SEEING DENSE FOG. AS
A RESULT...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA THROUGH DAWN. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY WITHIN
A DEGREE OF THE DRY BULB TEMP...ALSO WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL SHOW SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
KENTUCKY WITH PACKETS OF ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION EVERY
FEW HOURS. SOME HEIGHT FALLS WILL GET INTO THE MIX LATE IN THE
PERIOD ON THURSDAY AS A LARGER TROUGH SWEEPS EAST AND INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THE KEY TO THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BE THE
SMALLER FEATURES THAT THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE OF CATCHING. EVEN SO...THE CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR
SOLUTION IS LOW SO THE FORECAST HAS AN ELEMENT OF HEDGING TO IT
WITH THE HRRR AND NAM12 FAVORED. THE NAM12 ACTUALLY DID A DECENT
JOB DEPICTING THE CONVECTION OF THE PAST DAY SO AM INCLINED TO
GIVE IT HIGHER WEIGHTING TODAY.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE A REPEAT OF TUESDAY WITH A CLUSTER
OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE CWA. THIS IS THE SAME PLACE THAT WAS HIT HARD YESTERDAY AND
PWS WILL BE SIMILAR TODAY...SO CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
THESE LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...THE UNCERTAINTY IS STILL TOO HIGH
BARRING OBVIOUS UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT SO WILL HIT THIS THREAT WITH
AN SPS FOR NOW. THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIE DOWN LATER IN THE
EVENING WITH PATCHY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE AGAIN...A CONCERN. THE
SET UP REMAINS SIMILAR FOR STORMS ON THURSDAY...IF NOT A TAD
BETTER AS THE MAIN TROUGH APPROACHES. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE CONTINUED
THE FAIRLY HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND COMPOSITE MODEL AS A STARTING POINT FOR
THE WINDS/T/TD GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 18-24 HOURS AND THE
SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON
TERRAIN FOR TONIGHT/S TEMPERATURES. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE
TO OR A BIT HIGHER THAN A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET VALUES THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED AND
ROTATING WITHIN IT...WILL PUSH FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
EASTWARD FROM 0Z FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
AND INTO THE DAY SATURDAY...THIS WAVE WILL WEAKEN AND CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EASTWARD...WHILE BUILDING HEIGHTS AND DEAMPLIFIED RIDGING
TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT OF THIS FLOW BECOMING ZONAL THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH A
SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING AND RIDING EASTWARD ACROSS KY LATE IN THE DAY
AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. UNFORTUNATELY FOR THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED...THE FEATURES ARE WELL AGREED UPON...BUT THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT IS NOT. SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING A UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE TX/NM AREA...CAUSING AMPLIFICATION
AND EVENTUALLY FALLING HEIGHTS ACROSS KY AS THE LOW STARTS TO MOVE
NEWARD DURING THE DAY MONDAY...LOSING CONSIDERABLE STRENGTH AS IT
REACHES THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY TUESDAY. MULTIPLE WEAKER
SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE AROUND THESE CLOSED LOWS...TRAVELING DIRECTLY
INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE COLLOCATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON FRIDAY AND FOLLOW THE TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT EASTWARD AND
INTO THE STATE OF KY...STARTING OFF IN THE FAR WEST AROUND 0Z TO
3Z...AND REACHING THE JKL CWA BY LATE MORNING FRIDAY BEFORE QUICKLY
SHIFTING EASTWARD IN THE AFTERNOON...JUST AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXITS. BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED ALONG AND JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE QUICKLY TAPERING OFF
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH AND A STRONG SHOT OF DRIER AND COOLER
NRLY FLOW MOVES IN.
AS HEIGHTS BUILD SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO BE IN CHARGE...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES. THE COULD CREATE SOME RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT CONDITIONS FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS...AS WAS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST. BY SUNDAY...THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN ENCROACHING UPON THE REGION...WITH YET
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW LOCATED JUST TO OUR SW. STRONG SRLY FLOW WILL
TAKE HOLD...WHICH COUPLED WITH INSTABILITY/LIFT FROM THE NEARBY
SYSTEM...WILL CREATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY EVENING AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY. FINALLY...THE
FUN CONTINUES AS SEVERAL MORE SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION TO CONTINUE OUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. GIVEN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT
DISCREPANCIES OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS...CONTINUED WITH A MODEL
BLEND AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...ONE NOTE...IF THE GFS40 MODEL PANS
OUT...SOME OF THESE SYSTEMS COULD PUT DOWN SOME HEAVY RAINS...WITH
PWATS TOPPING OUT ABOVE 1.3 TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
THE FOG PROVED TO BE FLEETING THIS MORNING AS A LAYER OF LOW TO
MID CLOUDS MOVED IN AND CLEARED OUT THE LOWER VIS. LATER TODAY
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE STAYED WITH A VCTS FOR THIS WITH MORE REFINEMENT
POSSIBLE WITH FUTURE TAF ISSUANCES AS THE TIMING AND EFFECTS OF
THIS NEXT WAVE BECOME MORE CLEAR. AFTER THIS WAVE OF ACTIVITY
PASSES PATCHY FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY MAINLY...IN THE
VALLEYS...AND HAVE ADDED SOME TO THE SME AND LOZ TAFS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH...OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
422 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF
KENTUCKY PLACING THE AREA IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. THE
CONVECTION OF THE PAST DAY AND EVENING LEFT PLENTY OF GROUND
MOISTURE BEHIND AND NOW THAT CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OFF TO THE
EAST...EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP AND BECOME LOCALLY DENSE
THIS MORNING. ALREADY JKL...SME...AND LOZ ARE SEEING DENSE FOG. AS
A RESULT...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA THROUGH DAWN. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY WITHIN
A DEGREE OF THE DRY BULB TEMP...ALSO WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL SHOW SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
KENTUCKY WITH PACKETS OF ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION EVERY
FEW HOURS. SOME HEIGHT FALLS WILL GET INTO THE MIX LATE IN THE
PERIOD ON THURSDAY AS A LARGER TROUGH SWEEPS EAST AND INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THE KEY TO THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BE THE
SMALLER FEATURES THAT THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE OF CATCHING. EVEN SO...THE CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR
SOLUTION IS LOW SO THE FORECAST HAS AN ELEMENT OF HEDGING TO IT
WITH THE HRRR AND NAM12 FAVORED. THE NAM12 ACTUALLY DID A DECENT
JOB DEPICTING THE CONVECTION OF THE PAST DAY SO AM INCLINED TO
GIVE IT HIGHER WEIGHTING TODAY.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE A REPEAT OF TUESDAY WITH A CLUSTER
OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE CWA. THIS IS THE SAME PLACE THAT WAS HIT HARD YESTERDAY AND
PWS WILL BE SIMILAR TODAY...SO CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
THESE LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...THE UNCERTAINTY IS STILL TOO HIGH
BARRING OBVIOUS UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT SO WILL HIT THIS THREAT WITH
AN SPS FOR NOW. THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIE DOWN LATER IN THE
EVENING WITH PATCHY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE AGAIN...A CONCERN. THE
SET UP REMAINS SIMILAR FOR STORMS ON THURSDAY...IF NOT A TAD
BETTER AS THE MAIN TROUGH APPROACHES. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE CONTINUED
THE FAIRLY HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND COMPOSITE MODEL AS A STARTING POINT FOR
THE WINDS/T/TD GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 18-24 HOURS AND THE
SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON
TERRAIN FOR TONIGHT/S TEMPERATURES. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE
TO OR A BIT HIGHER THAN A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET VALUES THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED AND
ROTATING WITHIN IT...WILL PUSH FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
EASTWARD FROM 0Z FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
AND INTO THE DAY SATURDAY...THIS WAVE WILL WEAKEN AND CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EASTWARD...WHILE BUILDING HEIGHTS AND DEAMPLIFIED RIDGING
TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT OF THIS FLOW BECOMING ZONAL THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH A
SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING AND RIDING EASTWARD ACROSS KY LATE IN THE DAY
AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. UNFORTUNATELY FOR THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED...THE FEATURES ARE WELL AGREED UPON...BUT THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT IS NOT. SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING A UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE TX/NM AREA...CAUSING AMPLIFICATION
AND EVENTUALLY FALLING HEIGHTS ACROSS KY AS THE LOW STARTS TO MOVE
NEWARD DURING THE DAY MONDAY...LOSING CONSIDERABLE STRENGTH AS IT
REACHES THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY TUESDAY. MULTIPLE WEAKER
SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE AROUND THESE CLOSED LOWS...TRAVELING DIRECTLY
INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE COLLOCATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON FRIDAY AND FOLLOW THE TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT EASTWARD AND
INTO THE STATE OF KY...STARTING OFF IN THE FAR WEST AROUND 0Z TO
3Z...AND REACHING THE JKL CWA BY LATE MORNING FRIDAY BEFORE QUICKLY
SHIFTING EASTWARD IN THE AFTERNOON...JUST AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXITS. BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED ALONG AND JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE QUICKLY TAPERING OFF
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH AND A STRONG SHOT OF DRIER AND COOLER
NRLY FLOW MOVES IN.
AS HEIGHTS BUILD SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO BE IN CHARGE...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES. THE COULD CREATE SOME RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT CONDITIONS FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS...AS WAS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST. BY SUNDAY...THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN ENCROACHING UPON THE REGION...WITH YET
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW LOCATED JUST TO OUR SW. STRONG SRLY FLOW WILL
TAKE HOLD...WHICH COUPLED WITH INSTABILITY/LIFT FROM THE NEARBY
SYSTEM...WILL CREATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY EVENING AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY. FINALLY...THE
FUN CONTINUES AS SEVERAL MORE SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION TO CONTINUE OUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. GIVEN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT
DISCREPANCIES OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS...CONTINUED WITH A MODEL
BLEND AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...ONE NOTE...IF THE GFS40 MODEL PANS
OUT...SOME OF THESE SYSTEMS COULD PUT DOWN SOME HEAVY RAINS...WITH
PWATS TOPPING OUT ABOVE 1.3 TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
NOW THAT THE CONVECTION HAS MOVED ON EAST...EXPECT SOME FOG AND
LOW CEILINGS TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND BUILD TOWARDS DAWN WITH
A TIME OF LIFR POSSIBLE. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS
FOR THIS WITH MORE REFINEMENT POSSIBLE WITH FUTURE TAF ISSUANCES
AS THE TIMING AND EFFECTS OF THIS NEXT WAVE BECOME MORE CLEAR.
WINDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
400 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF
KENTUCKY PLACING THE AREA IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. THE
CONVECTION OF THE PAST DAY AND EVENING LEFT PLENTY OF GROUND
MOISTURE BEHIND AND NOW THAT CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OFF TO THE
EAST...EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP AND BECOME LOCALLY DENSE
THIS MORNING. ALREADY JKL...SME...AND LOZ ARE SEEING DENSE FOG. AS
A RESULT...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA THROUGH DAWN. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY WITHIN
A DEGREE OF THE DRY BULB TEMP...ALSO WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL SHOW SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
KENTUCKY WITH PACKETS OF ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION EVERY
FEW HOURS. SOME HEIGHT FALLS WILL GET INTO THE MIX LATE IN THE
PERIOD ON THURSDAY AS A LARGER TROUGH SWEEPS EAST AND INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THE KEY TO THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BE THE
SMALLER FEATURES THAT THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE OF CATCHING. EVEN SO...THE CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR
SOLUTION IS LOW SO THE FORECAST HAS AN ELEMENT OF HEDGING TO IT
WITH THE HRRR AND NAM12 FAVORED. THE NAM12 ACTUALLY DID A DECENT
JOB DEPICTING THE CONVECTION OF THE PAST DAY SO AM INCLINED TO
GIVE IT HIGHER WEIGHTING TODAY.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE A REPEAT OF TUESDAY WITH A CLUSTER
OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE CWA. THIS IS THE SAME PLACE THAT WAS HIT HARD YESTERDAY AND
PWS WILL BE SIMILAR TODAY...SO CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
THESE LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...THE UNCERTAINTY IS STILL TOO HIGH
BARRING OBVIOUS UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT SO WILL HIT THIS THREAT WITH
AN SPS FOR NOW. THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIE DOWN LATER IN THE
EVENING WITH PATCHY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE AGAIN...A CONCERN. THE
SET UP REMAINS SIMILAR FOR STORMS ON THURSDAY...IF NOT A TAD
BETTER AS THE MAIN TROUGH APPROACHES. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE CONTINUED
THE FAIRLY HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND COMPOSITE MODEL AS A STARTING POINT FOR
THE WINDS/T/TD GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 18-24 HOURS AND THE
SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON
TERRAIN FOR TONIGHT/S TEMPERATURES. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE
TO OR A BIT HIGHER THAN A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET VALUES THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
NOW THAT THE CONVECTION HAS MOVED ON EAST...EXPECT SOME FOG AND
LOW CEILINGS TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND BUILD TOWARDS DAWN WITH
A TIME OF LIFR POSSIBLE. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS
FOR THIS WITH MORE REFINEMENT POSSIBLE WITH FUTURE TAF ISSUANCES
AS THE TIMING AND EFFECTS OF THIS NEXT WAVE BECOME MORE CLEAR.
WINDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
939 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
.UPDATE...
A BKN BAND OF STRONG TO SVR STORMS CONTINUES TO MARCH EAST ACRS
NRN LA THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A SECOND BAND OF
TSTMS HAS FORMED ALONG THE FRONT...EXTENDING FM HOT SPRINGS ARK
TO TERRELL TX. THE FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO REACH OUR NWRN ZONES
LATE TONIGHT BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM. THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH
ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO GRIDS TONIGHT...MAINLY TO BRING IN LINE WITH
RECENT OBS AND TRENDS. ADJUSTED THE POP/WX GRIDS FOR THE EVENING.
INCORPORATED A BLEND OF RECENT HRRR RUNS...WHICH GENERALLY
LOWERED POPS FOR THE EVENING. ACTIVITY HAS STAYED NORTH OF THE CWA
SO FAR...BUT EXPECT IT WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE NRN TIER OF
PARISHES AND COUNTIES TOWARD MIDNIGHT WITH CHCS INCREASING
THEREAFTER. OTHERWISE...FCST SEEMS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.
24
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015/
DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 10/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE STALLING FRIDAY
MORNING...LIKELY NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CLOUDS AGAIN
DEVELOPING DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH CONDITIONS FROM MVFR TO
IFR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AROUND 10/09Z
NEAR KAEX WITH THE FRONT...THEN AFTER 10/12Z FOR THE TAF SITES
FURTHER SOUTH.
RUA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015/
DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATING APPROACHING NE-SW
ORIENTED COLD FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THROUGH
CENTRAL TEXAS. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS NOW DEVELOPING
ALONG BOUNDARY...WITH MORE ROBUST CONVECTION DEVELOPING PRE-
FRONTAL FROM SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR AUSTIN.
OTHER THAN THAT...LOCAL AREA REMAINS CLEAR OF ANY PRECIP. CLOUDS
WERE ABUNDANT TODAY BUT NONE-THE-LESS...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
AGAIN INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THE NORM.
WET WEATHER PATTERN INCOMING.
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO ADVANCE RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST
TO ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR AEX TO BPT TOWARD SUNRISE...THEN SLOWING
AND STALLING MOVING INTO THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. FRONT THEN
EXPECTED TO RETREAT RAPIDLY NORTH SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH FRONT...ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF
FRONT ALONG WITH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH ON A
STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST ALOFT....WARRANTS HIGH END RAIN CHANCES
BEGINNING FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SPC HAS PLACED THE
FORECAST AREA WITHIN A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
FOR FRIDAY. GOING INTO THE NEW WORK-WEEK...DEEP GULF/PACIFIC MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY PER THE ECMWF AND GFS.
THUS RESPECTABLE POPS CONTINUING.
MARINE...LIGHT SOUTHERLIES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...BECOMING MORE
EASTERLY FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO THE NEAR COASTAL
WATERS AND STALLS. WITH THIS FRONT WILL COME A CHANCE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL THEN LIFT NORTH AS WARM FRONT SUNDAY
WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA WILL THEN KEEP A DAILY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH MID-WEEK.
23
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 69 77 61 77 / 40 70 30 50
LCH 71 80 65 78 / 20 70 40 60
LFT 71 82 65 78 / 10 70 40 60
BPT 71 80 66 78 / 20 70 40 60
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
718 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH VIRGINIA TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY OVER INTERIOR NC. A
STRONG SFC LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST STATES...WHILE A
POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF IS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
ONGOING CONVECTION REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY
(WARM FRONT) EARLY THIS EVENING AND THUS WILL CARRY ONLY LIMITED
POPS AREAWIDE THRU 10 PM OR SO. LATEST HRRR HINTS THAT CONVECTION
OVER CENTRAL NC WILL MOVE NE INTO OUR FA LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT STARTS TO LIFT BACK NORTH...AND HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY TO SHOW HIGH CHC/LIKELY POPS THRU THE
CENTER OF OUR FA. LOWEST POPS (~20%) WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHSIDE
HAMPTON ROADS AND COASTAL NE NC. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHC TSTMS AS
WELL WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL TEND TO HOLD STEADY
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BEFORE RISING PRIOR TO SUNRISE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH WITH THE WARM FROPA. LOWS IN THE LOW 40S EASTERN
SHORE TO NR 60 FAR SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT INTO ONTARIO ON FRIDAY...SHUNTING
A SFC COLD FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS IN A MOIST AIRMASS W/SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ~+2SD...INCREASING LLVL
STEERING FLOW AND MUCAPE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. SPC CONTINUES TO OUTLOOK THE REGION
IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS. THE TIMING OF THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO BE LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.
MAIN CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE POPS TO 70% AND
DELAY TIMING OF PRECIP A COUPLE HRS AS MOST GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED
DOWN THE SYSTM JUST A BIT...MAKING MUCH OF THE DAY THRU 18Z DRY
FOR ALL OF THE FA EXCEPT FAR WRN AREAS. QUITE WARM AS WELL...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LO TO MID 80S ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN...UPR 70S TO
LWR 80S OTHER AREAS.
THE COLD FRONT SLIDES OFFSHORE BY SAT MORNG. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING A PLEASANT WEEKEND TO THE
FA WITH HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S UNDER A MSTLY
SUNNY SKY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY.
THE MODELS AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY
SLIDING OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE 12 ECMWF HAS MORE
MOISTURE WITH THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN AND LOOKS MORE LIKE THE GFS.
THE 12Z GFS IS A TOUCH SLOWER WITH THE FRONT..BUT STILL SHOWS GOOD
LIFT AND MOISTURE SO HAVE KEPT THE CHANCE POPS FOR LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. STILL WOULD EXPECT QPF TO BE ON THE
LOW SIDE AS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE IS STILL OVER THE GULF COAST
STATES IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
BY TUESDAY EVENING...SHOULD SEE THE FRONT PUSH INTO SC/GA WITH
HIGH PRESSURE SAGGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW A LOT LESS MOISTURE FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...SO HAVE STARTED TO LOWER POPS DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS
NOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A DRY
DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE UNCERTAINTY COMES ON THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWEST AND WITH A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...SHOULD SEE GULF MOISTURE BEGINNING TO ADVECT BACK INTO
THE REGION. HAVE MAINTAINED THE CHANCE POPS FOR NOW AS TIMING MAY
BE A QUESTION...BUT EXPECT TO SEE A DECENT RAINFALL EVENT LATE
NEXT WEEK AS WAVES OF ENERGY LIFT NE AROUND THE DEVELOPING TROUGH.
FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE GENERALLY RUN CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S MOST OF THE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH DID LOWER VALUES A TOUCH ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE HIGH MORE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ON WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY IF WEDGING SETS UP
WITH OVERRUNING CLOUDS.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONTD E/ENE FLOW HAS KEPT ALL TERMINALS LOW END MVFR/IFR...WITH
CEILINGS BEGINNING TO LOWER AT KPHF/KORF/KECG WHERE CEILINGS WENT
TO OR ABV 1KFT THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE AND BECOME LIFR OVER THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS AS STATIONARY
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION BEGNS LIFTING NWD TOWARD THE VA/NC
BORDER. THIS HANDLED VERY WELL BY 18Z TAFS...AND HAVE MADE ONLY
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING/CEILING HEIGHTS. ONCE LO LVL FLOW
TURNS SLY/SSWLY...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BEGIN IMPROVING. IMING
LOOKS TO BE AFTER 08Z AT KECG...AND AFTER 10Z AT KORF/KPHF...WITH
KRIC/KSBY LIKELY TO BE THE LAST TO IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR...13Z TO
15Z.
AS FAR AS PRECIP NEXT 6-12 HOURS...CLUSTERS OF SHWRS/TSTMS OVER NC
CONT LIFTING NEWD TOWARD THE REGION...BUT WEAKEN UPON ENCOUNTERING
STABLE NEAR SURFACE AIRMASS NORTH OF STATIONARY FRONT. HRRR/RUC
SUGGESTING THIS PRECIP MAY WELL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY OR DISSIPATE
BEFORE AFFECTING TERMINALS. SO HAVE KEPT SHWR/TSTM ACTVTY OUT OF
TAFS OVERNIGHT. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY. SHOULD SHWR/TSTM ACTVTY MOVE
INTO ANY TERMINALS...WOULD EXPECT CEILINGS TO BRIEFLY BECOME
MVFR.
S/SW WINDS DEVELOPING FRIDAY MORNING WILL SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND BECOME GUSTY (AROUND 25 KTS) AT TIMES AFT 13Z. SCT
TSTMS...SOME STRONG...MAY IMPACT THE TAF SITES LATE FRIDAY
AFTN/EVENING. VFR AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
STILL SEEING THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NERN US NOSING DOWN INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. WIND
ARE GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KT OUT OF THE E TO NE. THIS IS SERVING TO
KEEPING THE COAST WATERS STILL IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE FOR THE
NORTHERN 2 COASTAL ZONES...SO HAVE KEPT SCA ON GOING. THIS HIGH
WILL PULL OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND THE FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHERLY
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY. IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL SEE WINDS KICK UP TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KT.
THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE STRONGER...BUT THE COOLER WATER WILL SERVE
TO KEEP THE HIGHER WINDS OFF THE WATER SURFACE. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT AND THESE STORMS COULD BRIEFLY BRING
THE STRONGER WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. ONCE THE WINDS TURN NW
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY SEE THE WINDS DIMINISH LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT BACK TO 10 TO 15 KT. SO FOR NOW HAVE EXTEND THE SCA THROUGH
1 AM FRIDAY FOR SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND LINGERS
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER WITH
THE WINDS DIMINISHING ON SUNDAY TO UNDER 10 KT.
THE NEXT FRONT TO IMPACT THE WATERS ARRIVES ON MONDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SW WINDS
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS
AGAIN IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TIME PERIOD WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF QUIET
WEATHER.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...ESS
AVIATION...LSA/WRS
MARINE...ESS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
251 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH OUR AREA
THIS MORNING. THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT OVER THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE RETURNING AS A WARM FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC. THE FORWARD EXTENT OF THIS AIRMASS IS ACROSS CENTRAL
VIRGINIA. AN ADVANCING MCS WILL APPROACH CENTRAL VIRGINIA THIS
AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT SEPERATES COOL HIGH PRESSURE WITH A WARM UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. ON THE WARM SIDE...TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO NEAR 65 WITH
DEWPTS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S. A MCS WILL APPROACH EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY AS INSTABILITY
HAS RISEN TO ABOVE 1000 J/KG WITH 30KTS OF BULK 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HISTORY OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN ACTIVITY AS
IT APPROACHES VA BUT SOME POCKETS OF STRONG WINDS EXIST IN THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE AND THEREFORE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT TODAY WITH
LINE REACHING THE MTNS. FURTHER NORTH AND EAST AND IN THE HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE...ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DISSAPATE AS
IT MOVES INTO A VERY STABLE ATMOSPHERE. RAIN WILL TAKE OVER AND
MOVE EASTWARD THIS EVENING.
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE MCS WILL LEAD TO A LULL OF WIDESPREAD RAIN
BUT LOW LEVEL SATURATION WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES OF DZ OR RAIN
THROUGH THE EVENING. NOTHING WILL PUSH THE WEDGE FROM PERSISTING
ACROSS THE MID- ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT MAY
RETREAT FURTHER NORTH BUT TEMPS WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO.
SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALLOW DISTURBANCES TO MOVE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. LITTLE FORCING WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD RAIN
THURSDAY BUT LOW LEVEL SATURATION WILL ALLOW FOR DRIZZLE AT TIMES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. A
STRONG INVERSION WITH ADEQUATE SATURATION IS EXPECTED IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER
40S IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND TO THE MIDDLE 50S IN THE CENTRAL
SHENANDOAH VALLEY. SHOULD ANY EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND VEER
AROUND TO MORE SOUTHERLY...THEN LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME HIGHER
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS OF THE NAM AND GFS HAVE
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THURSDAY`S LOW TEMPERATURES.
ON FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
A COUPLE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE EARLY FRIDAY WILL LINGER
BUT BECOME MORE SPARSE AS MILDER AIR BECOMES MORE DOMINANT BOTH
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. WITH A WARM FRONT NOW TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION AND A PERSISTENT...YET INCREASING...SOUTHERLY FLOW
EVOLVING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY SORE UPWARDS FROM THE 40S AND
50S TO THE 70S AND A FEW 80S BY MID-AFTERNOON FRIDAY.
ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WILL LEAD TO GREATER INSTABILITY DURING
THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. WE ARE EXPECTING A COLD
FRONT...ATTACHED TO THE GREAT LAKES` LOW PRESSURE...TO PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS OF NOW...TIMING APPEARS TO BE
AROUND NOON IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...LATE AFTERNOON ALONG I-
95 AND MID-EVENING LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND. SHOWERS SHOULD BE
HEAVY AND THUNDERSTORMS STRONG TO SEVERE. MUCH OF ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE MORE EXPECTED FROM THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND. THERE
IS CURRENTLY A SLIGHT RISK FOR AN AREA FROM ALONG I-95 TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD
BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST BEGINNING
FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AS
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. OUR CURRENT FORECAST HAS
LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50.
HOWEVER...IF ENOUGH COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN QUICKER THAN
EXPECTED...THEN LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BE ANOTHER 5 DEGREES COOLER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE REGION SATURDAY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DRY MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY
HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL AFFECT THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY
LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WARM
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY BRINGING WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. THE LOW WILL CROSS THE
REGION AND MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. CIGS WILL LOWER TONIGHT AND
IFR WITH SUB-IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY MORNING. -
RADZ IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. CIGS SHOULD BECOME MVFR BY MID-MORNING
THURSDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THU AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY RETREAT TO THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
REACHING VFR FRIDAY MID-MORNING. PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
&&
.MARINE...
A RIDGE AXIS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
GRADIENT HAS LED TO GUSTS 15-20KTS AT TIMES. SCA IS IN EFFECT THIS
AFTERNOON. MIXING SHOULD BE REDUCED THIS EVENING. THE GRADIENT
SHOULD RELAX THURSDAY AND SCA ARE NOT EXPECTED.
NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ530>543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...KLW
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HAS/KLW
MARINE...HAS/KLW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
219 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA EARLY
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FRONT THEN WEAKENS AND LIFTS BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST UPDATED TO LWR POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND MAKE
CHANGES TO HRLY TEMPS WHICH ARE QUITE TRICKY DUE TO A SLOWLY
SAGGING COLD FRNT THRU THE AREA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES SFC LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, WITH A QUASI- STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE MID MS VLY OVER INTO THE OHIO VLY AND THE LWR
EASTERN SHORE. NOTING SOME POCKETS OF SHRAS ACROSS THE AREA ON
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES.
A FEW SCT SHRAS ARE CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE LWR EASTERN SHORE THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE TO THE WEST, A MORE SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF SHRAS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH DECAYING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT ROLLED ACROSS
THE OHIO RVR VALLEY LAST NIGHT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING FROM E
WV/WESTERN VA OVER TO THE PIEDMONT IN THE FORM OF SOME LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN SHRAS. LATEST HRRR AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 00Z
NAM HAVE BEST HANDLED THIS FEATURE THUS FAR... AND HAVE THEREFORE
LEANED THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION FOR THE NEAR TERM. HAVE GONE
WITH A BRIEF 4-6 HR PERIOD OF LIKELY SHRAS THIS MORNING MAINLY IN
THE WARM SECTOR...WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES FROM THE EASTERN
PIEDMONT/WEST OF RIC METRO EARLY THIS MORNING...REACHING THE I-95
CORRIDOR BY DAWN AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH CENTRAL VA/HAMPTON ROADS BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. EXPECT LESS SHRA ACTIVITY THIS AFTN BEHIND
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND HV THEREFORE CUT BACK ON POP FOR THE AFTN.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO THE NORTH TO DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST IN BACKDOOR
FASHION THIS MORNING, BRINGING ABOUT A WIND SHIFT TO THE NE FROM
MIDDAY INTO THE AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL STABILIZE TO FALL SLIGHTLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN NECK/EASTERN SHORE, AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
THE LOW TO MID 70S IN THE WARM SECTOR OVER INLAND SECTIONS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER. FARTHER NORTH, LOOK FOR HIGHS IN
THE U40S NEAR OCEAN CITY...LOW TO MID 50S OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA.
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION BY EARLY EVENING AS NEXT
DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE MID MO VLY TRANSLATES EAST. WILL INCREASE
POP AGAIN BRIEFLY TONIGHT AS DISTURBANCE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT,
IN PLACE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER THIS EVENING.
RAIN CHANCES DROP OFF AGAIN TONIGHT BEHIND THIS FEATURE
OVERNIGHT. COOLER TONIGHT IN MOIST NE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S NE TO MID 50S SW SECTIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 448 AM EDT WED...
THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN, WITH DEVELOPING SW FLOW EVENTUALLY PUSHING
IT BACK NWD AS A WARM FRONT BY THU AFTN. HIGHS THU WILL RANGE
FROM THE 50S ON THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE U60S TO L70S WITH MORE
TIME IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS FAR SWRN/WRN AREAS. HAVE MADE A
MODEST DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
WITH ONGOING NE FLOW. POPS REMAIN IN CHANCE RANGE AS SEVERAL WEAK
DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN TWO PERIODS FOR SCT SHRAS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE MORNING AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ZONES ALONG THE FROTNAL ZONE.
SFC LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL TRACK NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE
THU/FRI WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING INTO OUR AREA
FM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY ON FRI/FRI NGT. CHANCES OF ADDITIONAL
SHRAS/STORMS INCREASE FM W TO E THRU THE DAY FRI...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE (60% POPS) IN THE AFTN/EVE HRS. SOME TSTMS MAY HAVE STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN...AND HV MAINTAINED THIS MENTION IN
THE HWO. MORE SUN/COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR MUCH WARMER TEMPS ON FRIDAY AS THE REGION RETURNS INTO THE
WARM SECTOR. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...WITH SOME
MID 80S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH IF CLEARING OCCURS A BIT QUICKER
THAN PRESENTLY MODELED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 446 PM EDT TUE...
SFC CDFNT TO PUSH OFF THE CST AFT MDNGT FRI NGT...TO BE FOLLOWED
BY HI PRES FM THE WNW BUILDING OVR THE RGN THIS WKND. CONTG HI
CHC/LIKELY POPS FRI EVE...THEN TAPERING OFF W-E THROUGH LT FRI
NGT/EARLY SAT MRNG. XPCG CLRG ON SAT AS DRYING AIR FM THE WNW
SPREADS OVR THE RGN. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE CST BY EARLY NEXT
WK...RESULTING IN WNDS BECOMING SSW...AND MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCRSG. LO TEMPS FRI NGT FM THE M50S NW TO ARND 60F SE. HI TEMPS
SAT IN THE L/M60S AT THE CST...TO L70S INLAND. LO TEMPS SAT NGT FM
THE M40S NW TO L50S SE. HI TEMPS SUN NR 60F AT THE CST...TO 65 TO
70F ELSW. HI TEMPS MON/TUE FM THE M60S TO M70S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS SITUATED FROM NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND
WESTWARD ACROSS NRN NC EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. STRATUS IS WIDESPREAD
ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH OVC CIGS ~500FT. VSBY IS
AVERAGING 2-3SM NEAR THE COAST TO > 6SM INLAND. IFR CIGS SHOULD
PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
ECG...WHICH COULD OCCASIONALLY SCATTER OUT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE BOUNDARY. MOST OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE. AN MCS OVER
WV COULD REACH CENTRAL VA EARLY THIS EVENING LIKELY IN THE FORM OF
SHRA WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...THE BOUNDARY
AGAIN SINKS S OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CIGS AND VSBY TO LOWER
OVERNIGHT...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT ALL SITES. SOME -RA IS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND
COVERAGE...SO OTHER THAN SOME -SHRA AT RIC THIS EVENING NO OTHER -RA
HAS BEEN INCLUDED. CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT THURSDAY MORNING WITH
MORE IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK
THROUGH THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING SHRA/TSRA...ALONG WITH A
BREEZY SSW WIND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS INVOF A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE VA EASTERN SHORE AS OF
300 AM THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE S-SW SOUTH
OF THE FRONT...WITH BREEZY N-NE WINDS 10-20KT WITH GUSTS AROUND
25KT NORTH OF THE FRONT. AM ALREADY SEEING AN INCREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS IN CHES BAY NORTH OF TANGIER ISLAND AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO PARRAMORE ISLAND. THE FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY DROP SWD THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY...STALLING ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS TONIGHT INTO THU. EXPECT NNE WINDS TO INCREASE OVER THE
WATERS THROUGH TODAY WITH A BRIEF REPRIEVE TONIGHT. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10-20KT OVER BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-25KT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. SEAS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BUILD FROM 2-3FT TO
5-7FT NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT...3-4FT SOUTH. ONSHORE FLOW
PERSISTS ON THU WITH AN UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS TO 10-15KT DURING
THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW 5FT IN SRN WATERS BY
THU AFTN...WHILE SEAS LINGER AROUND 4-5FT NORTH OF PARRAMORE
ISLAND UNTIL EARLY EVENING. SCA FLAGS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE
CHARLES GO INTO EFFECT AT 600 AM THIS MORNING AND WILL MAINTAIN
THAT START TIME BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS NWD AS A WARM FRONT THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI
AND WINDS BECOME SLY. SEAS 2-3FT...WAVES 1-2FT. SPEEDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE AROUND SUNRISE FRI MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY
DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SPEEDS WILL
AVERAGE 15-20KT (GUSTS UP TO 25KT OVER COASTAL WATERS). SEAS BUILD
TO 3-4FT AND MAY REACH UP TO 5FT NEAR BUOY 44009 BY LATE FRI
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS FRI NIGHT. THE
COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL DURING THE DAY
ON SAT. A DAYTIME ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR WILL DECREASE CHANCES FOR
POST-FRONTAL SCA WINDS. EXPECT NW WINDS ON SAT AOB 15KT...DECREASING
SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND
SETTLES OVER THE WATERS ON SUN/SUN NIGHT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAS/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...ALB/BMD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
1201 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA EARLY
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FRONT THEN WEAKENS AND LIFTS BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST UPDATED TO LWR POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND MAKE
CHANGES TO HRLY TEMPS WHICH ARE QUITE TRICKY DUE TO A SLOWLY
SAGGING COLD FRNT THRU THE AREA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES SFC LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, WITH A QUASI- STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE MID MS VLY OVER INTO THE OHIO VLY AND THE LWR
EASTERN SHORE. NOTING SOME POCKETS OF SHRAS ACROSS THE AREA ON
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES.
A FEW SCT SHRAS ARE CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE LWR EASTERN SHORE THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE TO THE WEST, A MORE SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF SHRAS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH DECAYING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT ROLLED ACROSS
THE OHIO RVR VALLEY LAST NIGHT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING FROM E
WV/WESTERN VA OVER TO THE PIEDMONT IN THE FORM OF SOME LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN SHRAS. LATEST HRRR AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 00Z
NAM HAVE BEST HANDLED THIS FEATURE THUS FAR... AND HAVE THEREFORE
LEANED THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION FOR THE NEAR TERM. HAVE GONE
WITH A BRIEF 4-6 HR PERIOD OF LIKELY SHRAS THIS MORNING MAINLY IN
THE WARM SECTOR...WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES FROM THE EASTERN
PIEDMONT/WEST OF RIC METRO EARLY THIS MORNING...REACHING THE I-95
CORRIDOR BY DAWN AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH CENTRAL VA/HAMPTON ROADS BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. EXPECT LESS SHRA ACTIVITY THIS AFTN BEHIND
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND HV THEREFORE CUT BACK ON POP FOR THE AFTN.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO THE NORTH TO DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST IN BACKDOOR
FASHION THIS MORNING, BRINGING ABOUT A WIND SHIFT TO THE NE FROM
MIDDAY INTO THE AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL STABILIZE TO FALL SLIGHTLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN NECK/EASTERN SHORE, AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
THE LOW TO MID 70S IN THE WARM SECTOR OVER INLAND SECTIONS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER. FARTHER NORTH, LOOK FOR HIGHS IN
THE U40S NEAR OCEAN CITY...LOW TO MID 50S OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA.
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION BY EARLY EVENING AS NEXT
DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE MID MO VLY TRANSLATES EAST. WILL INCREASE
POP AGAIN BRIEFLY TONIGHT AS DISTURBANCE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT,
IN PLACE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER THIS EVENING.
RAIN CHANCES DROP OFF AGAIN TONIGHT BEHIND THIS FEATURE
OVERNIGHT. COOLER TONIGHT IN MOIST NE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S NE TO MID 50S SW SECTIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 448 AM EDT WED...
THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN, WITH DEVELOPING SW FLOW EVENTUALLY PUSHING
IT BACK NWD AS A WARM FRONT BY THU AFTN. HIGHS THU WILL RANGE
FROM THE 50S ON THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE U60S TO L70S WITH MORE
TIME IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS FAR SWRN/WRN AREAS. HAVE MADE A
MODEST DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
WITH ONGOING NE FLOW. POPS REMAIN IN CHANCE RANGE AS SEVERAL WEAK
DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN TWO PERIODS FOR SCT SHRAS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE MORNING AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ZONES ALONG THE FROTNAL ZONE.
SFC LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL TRACK NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE
THU/FRI WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING INTO OUR AREA
FM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY ON FRI/FRI NGT. CHANCES OF ADDITIONAL
SHRAS/STORMS INCREASE FM W TO E THRU THE DAY FRI...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE (60% POPS) IN THE AFTN/EVE HRS. SOME TSTMS MAY HAVE STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN...AND HV MAINTAINED THIS MENTION IN
THE HWO. MORE SUN/COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR MUCH WARMER TEMPS ON FRIDAY AS THE REGION RETURNS INTO THE
WARM SECTOR. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...WITH SOME
MID 80S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH IF CLEARING OCCURS A BIT QUICKER
THAN PRESENTLY MODELED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 446 PM EDT TUE...
SFC CDFNT TO PUSH OFF THE CST AFT MDNGT FRI NGT...TO BE FOLLOWED
BY HI PRES FM THE WNW BUILDING OVR THE RGN THIS WKND. CONTG HI
CHC/LIKELY POPS FRI EVE...THEN TAPERING OFF W-E THROUGH LT FRI
NGT/EARLY SAT MRNG. XPCG CLRG ON SAT AS DRYING AIR FM THE WNW
SPREADS OVR THE RGN. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE CST BY EARLY NEXT
WK...RESULTING IN WNDS BECOMING SSW...AND MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCRSG. LO TEMPS FRI NGT FM THE M50S NW TO ARND 60F SE. HI TEMPS
SAT IN THE L/M60S AT THE CST...TO L70S INLAND. LO TEMPS SAT NGT FM
THE M40S NW TO L50S SE. HI TEMPS SUN NR 60F AT THE CST...TO 65 TO
70F ELSW. HI TEMPS MON/TUE FM THE M60S TO M70S.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SOUTH INTO FAR NERN COUNTIES OF
THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING. VARIABLE BR WITH VISIBILITIES RANGING
FROM 1-5SM ACROSS THE REGION...WITH POCKETS OF FG WITH
VISIBILITIES FROM 1/4-1/2SM. NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WINDS
ARE NE AROUND 10-15KT. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WINDS ARE LIGHT
FROM THE SOUTH. AS THE FRONT SAGS SWD TODAY...EXPECT SIMILAR WIND
SHIFTS AND SPEEDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MEANWHILE...A DECENT
SWATH OF RAIN SHOWERS ARE PUSHING WWD INTO THE ERN PIEDMONT AS OF
08/0800Z. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EWD ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...BECOMING MORE FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS LOCATED. EXPECT A COMBINATION OF MVFR/IFR CIGS IN RAIN
SHOWERS TODAY. PRECIP COMES TO AN END BY MID TO LATE
EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY OVERNIGHT.
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 400FT AGL WITH VARIABLE
VISIBILITIES IN IFR/MVFR CATEGORIES. THE BACKDOOR FRONT STALLS
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WED NIGHT/THU AND CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SLOW
TO IMPROVE THU MORNING. THE FRONT LIFTS NWD THROUGH THE REGION THU
NIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING. BREEZY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FRI AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION
FRI EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION SAT/SUN.
&&
.MARINE...
SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS INVOF A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE VA EASTERN SHORE AS OF
300 AM THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE S-SW SOUTH
OF THE FRONT...WITH BREEZY N-NE WINDS 10-20KT WITH GUSTS AROUND
25KT NORTH OF THE FRONT. AM ALREADY SEEING AN INCREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS IN CHES BAY NORTH OF TANGIER ISLAND AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO PARRAMORE ISLAND. THE FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY DROP SWD THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY...STALLING ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS TONIGHT INTO THU. EXPECT NNE WINDS TO INCREASE OVER THE
WATERS THROUGH TODAY WITH A BRIEF REPRIEVE TONIGHT. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10-20KT OVER BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-25KT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. SEAS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BUILD FROM 2-3FT TO
5-7FT NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT...3-4FT SOUTH. ONSHORE FLOW
PERSISTS ON THU WITH AN UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS TO 10-15KT DURING
THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW 5FT IN SRN WATERS BY
THU AFTN...WHILE SEAS LINGER AROUND 4-5FT NORTH OF PARRAMORE
ISLAND UNTIL EARLY EVENING. SCA FLAGS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE
CHARLES GO INTO EFFECT AT 600 AM THIS MORNING AND WILL MAINTAIN
THAT START TIME BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS NWD AS A WARM FRONT THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI
AND WINDS BECOME SLY. SEAS 2-3FT...WAVES 1-2FT. SPEEDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE AROUND SUNRISE FRI MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY
DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SPEEDS WILL
AVERAGE 15-20KT (GUSTS UP TO 25KT OVER COASTAL WATERS). SEAS BUILD
TO 3-4FT AND MAY REACH UP TO 5FT NEAR BUOY 44009 BY LATE FRI
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS FRI NIGHT. THE
COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL DURING THE DAY
ON SAT. A DAYTIME ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR WILL DECREASE CHANCES FOR
POST-FRONTAL SCA WINDS. EXPECT NW WINDS ON SAT AOB 15KT...DECREASING
SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND
SETTLES OVER THE WATERS ON SUN/SUN NIGHT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAS/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...ALB/BMD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
449 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA EARLY
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FRONT THEN WEAKENS AND LIFTS BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT WED...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES SFC LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE MID MS VLY OVER INTO THE OHIO VLY AND THE LWR
EASTERN SHORE. NOTING SOME POCKETS OF SHRAS ACROSS THE AREA ON
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES.
A FEW SCT SHRAS ARE CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE LWR EASTERN SHORE THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE TO THE WEST, A MORE SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF SHRAS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH DECAYING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT ROLLED ACROSS
THE OHIO RVR VALLEY LAST NIGHT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING FROM E
WV/WESTERN VA OVER TO THE PIEDMONT IN THE FORM OF SOME LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN SHRAS. LATEST HRRR AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 00Z
NAM HAVE BEST HANDLED THIS FEATURE THUS FAR... AND HAVE THEREFORE
LEANED THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION FOR THE NEAR TERM. HAVE GONE
WITH A BRIEF 4-6 HR PERIOD OF LIKELY SHRAS THIS MORNING MAINLY IN
THE WARM SECTOR...WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES FROM THE EASTERN
PIEDMONT/WEST OF RIC METRO EARLY THIS MORNING...REACHING THE I-95
CORRIDOR BY DAWN AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH CENTRAL VA/HAMPTON ROADS BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. EXPECT LESS SHRA ACTIVITY THIS AFTN BEHIND
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND HV THEREFORE CUT BACK ON POP FOR THE AFTN.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO THE NORTH TO DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST IN BACKDOOR
FASHION THIS MORNING, BRINGING ABOUT A WIND SHIFT TO THE NE FROM
MIDDAY INTO THE AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL STABILIZE TO FALL SLIGHTLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN NECK/EASTERN SHORE, AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
THE LOW TO MID 70S IN THE WARM SECTOR OVER INLAND SECTIONS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER. FARTHER NORTH, LOOK FOR HIGHS IN
THE U40S NEAR OCEAN CITY...LOW TO MID 50S OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA.
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION BY EARLY EVENING AS NEXT
DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE MID MO VLY TRANSLATES EAST. WILL INCREASE
POP AGAIN BRIEFLY TONIGHT AS DISTURBANCE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT,
IN PLACE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER THIS EVENING.
RAIN CHANCES DROP OFF AGAIN TONIGHT BEHIND THIS FEATURE
OVERNIGHT. COOLER TONIGHT IN MOIST NE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S NE TO MID 50S SW SECTIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 448 AM EDT WED...
THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN, WITH DEVELOPING SW FLOW EVENTUALLY PUSHING
IT BACK NWD AS A WARM FRONT BY THU AFTN. HIGHS THU WILL RANGE
FROM THE 50S ON THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE U60S TO L70S WITH MORE
TIME IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS FAR SWRN/WRN AREAS. HAVE MADE A
MODEST DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
WITH ONGOING NE FLOW. POPS REMAIN IN CHANCE RANGE AS SEVERAL WEAK
DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN TWO PERIODS FOR SCT SHRAS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE MORNING AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ZONES ALONG THE FROTNAL ZONE.
SFC LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL TRACK NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE
THU/FRI WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING INTO OUR AREA
FM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY ON FRI/FRI NGT. CHANCES OF ADDITIONAL
SHRAS/STORMS INCREASE FM W TO E THRU THE DAY FRI...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE (60% POPS) IN THE AFTN/EVE HRS. SOME TSTMS MAY HAVE STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN...AND HV MAINTAINED THIS MENTION IN
THE HWO. MORE SUN/COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR MUCH WARMER TEMPS ON FRIDAY AS THE REGION RETURNS INTO THE
WARM SECTOR. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...WITH SOME
MID 80S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH IF CLEARING OCCURS A BIT QUICKER
THAN PRESENTLY MODELED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 446 PM EDT TUE...
SFC CDFNT TO PUSH OFF THE CST AFT MDNGT FRI NGT...TO BE FOLLOWED
BY HI PRES FM THE WNW BUILDING OVR THE RGN THIS WKND. CONTG HI
CHC/LIKELY POPS FRI EVE...THEN TAPERING OFF W-E THROUGH LT FRI
NGT/EARLY SAT MRNG. XPCG CLRG ON SAT AS DRYING AIR FM THE WNW
SPREADS OVR THE RGN. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE CST BY EARLY NEXT
WK...RESULTING IN WNDS BECOMING SSW...AND MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCRSG. LO TEMPS FRI NGT FM THE M50S NW TO ARND 60F SE. HI TEMPS
SAT IN THE L/M60S AT THE CST...TO L70S INLAND. LO TEMPS SAT NGT FM
THE M40S NW TO L50S SE. HI TEMPS SUN NR 60F AT THE CST...TO 65 TO
70F ELSW. HI TEMPS MON/TUE FM THE M60S TO M70S.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SOUTH INTO FAR NERN COUNTIES OF
THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING. VARIABLE BR WITH VISIBILITIES RANGING
FROM 1-5SM ACROSS THE REGION...WITH POCKETS OF FG WITH
VISIBILITIES FROM 1/4-1/2SM. NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WINDS
ARE NE AROUND 10-15KT. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WINDS ARE LIGHT
FROM THE SOUTH. AS THE FRONT SAGS SWD TODAY...EXPECT SIMILAR WIND
SHIFTS AND SPEEDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MEANWHILE...A DECENT
SWATH OF RAIN SHOWERS ARE PUSHING WWD INTO THE ERN PIEDMONT AS OF
08/0800Z. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EWD ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...BECOMING MORE FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS LOCATED. EXPECT A COMBINATION OF MVFR/IFR CIGS IN RAIN
SHOWERS TODAY. PRECIP COMES TO AN END BY MID TO LATE
EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY OVERNIGHT.
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 400FT AGL WITH VARIABLE
VISIBILITIES IN IFR/MVFR CATEGORIES. THE BACKDOOR FRONT STALLS
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WED NIGHT/THU AND CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SLOW
TO IMPROVE THU MORNING. THE FRONT LIFTS NWD THROUGH THE REGION THU
NIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING. BREEZY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FRI AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION
FRI EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION SAT/SUN.
&&
.MARINE...
SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS INVOF A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE VA EASTERN SHORE AS OF
300 AM THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE S-SW SOUTH
OF THE FRONT...WITH BREEZY N-NE WINDS 10-20KT WITH GUSTS AROUND
25KT NORTH OF THE FRONT. AM ALREADY SEEING AN INCREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS IN CHES BAY NORTH OF TANGIER ISLAND AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO PARRAMORE ISLAND. THE FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY DROP SWD THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY...STALLING ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS TONIGHT INTO THU. EXPECT NNE WINDS TO INCREASE OVER THE
WATERS THROUGH TODAY WITH A BRIEF REPRIEVE TONIGHT. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10-20KT OVER BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-25KT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. SEAS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BUILD FROM 2-3FT TO
5-7FT NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT...3-4FT SOUTH. ONSHORE FLOW
PERSISTS ON THU WITH AN UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS TO 10-15KT DURING
THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW 5FT IN SRN WATERS BY
THU AFTN...WHILE SEAS LINGER AROUND 4-5FT NORTH OF PARRAMORE
ISLAND UNTIL EARLY EVENING. SCA FLAGS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE
CHARLES GO INTO EFFECT AT 600 AM THIS MORNING AND WILL MAINTAIN
THAT START TIME BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS NWD AS A WARM FRONT THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI
AND WINDS BECOME SLY. SEAS 2-3FT...WAVES 1-2FT. SPEEDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE AROUND SUNRISE FRI MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY
DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SPEEDS WILL
AVERAGE 15-20KT (GUSTS UP TO 25KT OVER COASTAL WATERS). SEAS BUILD
TO 3-4FT AND MAY REACH UP TO 5FT NEAR BUOY 44009 BY LATE FRI
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS FRI NIGHT. THE
COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL DURING THE DAY
ON SAT. A DAYTIME ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR WILL DECREASE CHANCES FOR
POST-FRONTAL SCA WINDS. EXPECT NW WINDS ON SAT AOB 15KT...DECREASING
SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND
SETTLES OVER THE WATERS ON SUN/SUN NIGHT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...ALB/BMD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
420 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA EARLY
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FRONT THEN WEAKENS AND LIFTS BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES SFC LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, WITH A QUASI- STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE MID MS VLY OVER INTO THE OHIO VLY AND THE LWR
EASTERN SHORE. NOTING SOME POCKETS OF SHRAS ACROSS THE AREA ON
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES.
NOTING A FEW SCT SHRAS PUSHING ACROSS THE LWR EASTERN SHORE THIS
MORNING ALONG THE FRONT. MEANWHILE, TO THE WEST A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
AREA OF SHRAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH DECAYING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT
ROLLED ACROSS THE OHIO RVR VALLEY LAST NIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY IS
PUSHING FROM E WV/WESTERN VA OVER TO THE PIEDMONT THIS MORNING IN
THE FORM OF SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHRAS. LATEST HRRR AND TO
A LESSER EXTENT THE 00Z NAM HAVE BEST HANDLED THIS FEATURE THUS
FAR... AND HAVE THEREFORE LEANED THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION
FOR THE NEAR TERM. HAVE GONE WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIKELY SHRAS
THIS MORNING MAINLY IN THE WARM SECTOR... WITH THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES FROM THE EASTERN PIEDMONT/WEST OF RIC METRO EARLY THIS
MORNING...REACHING THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY DAWN AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH
CENTRAL VA/HAMPTON ROADS BY MID TO LATE MORNING. EXPECT LESS SHRA
ACTIVITY THIS AFTN BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND HV THEREFORE CUT
BACK ON POP FOR THE AFTN. EXPECT THE FRONT TO THE NORTH TO DROP
SOUTH- SOUTHEAST IN BACKDOOR FASHION THIS MORNING, BRINGING ABOUT
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NE FROM MIDDAY INTO THE AFTN. TEMPERATURES
WILL STABILIZE TO FALL SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN NECK/EASTERN
SHORE, AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN THE WARM
SECTOR OVER INLAND SECTIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER.
FARTHER NORTH, LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE U40S NEAR OCEAN CITY...LOW TO
MID 50S OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION BY EARLY EVENING AS NEXT
DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE MID MO VLY TRANSLATES EAST. WILL INCREASE
POP AGAIN BRIEFLY TONIGHT AS DISTURBANCE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT,
IN PLACE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER THIS EVENING.
RAIN CHANCES DROP OFF AGAIN TONIGHT BEHIND THIS FEATURE
OVERNIGHT. COOLER TONIGHT IN MOIST NE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S NE TO MID 50S SW SECTIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND SLOWLY PUSH BACK NWD AS A WARM FRONT ON
THU...WITH HIGHS RANGING FM THE 50S LWR ERN SHORE TO THE 70S IN
THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS FAR SRN/WRN AREAS.
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE W ON FRI. CHANCES OF
SHRAS/TSTMS INCREASE FM W TO E THRU THE DAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
(60% POPS) IN THE AFTN/EVE HRS. SOME TSTMS MAY HAVE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN...MAINTAINED MENTION IN THE HWO. TEMPS WILL
BE MUCH HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH THE REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC CDFNT TO PUSH OFF THE CST AFT MDNGT FRI NGT...TO BE FOLLOWED
BY HI PRES FM THE WNW BUILDING OVR THE RGN THIS WKND. CONTG HI
CHC/LIKELY POPS FRI EVE...THEN TAPERING OFF W-E THROUGH LT FRI
NGT/EARLY SAT MRNG. XPCG CLRG ON SAT AS DRYING AIR FM THE WNW
SPREADS OVR THE RGN. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE CST BY EARLY NEXT
WK...RESULTING IN WNDS BECOMING SSW...AND MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCRSG. LO TEMPS FRI NGT FM THE M50S NW TO ARND 60F SE. HI TEMPS
SAT IN THE L/M60S AT THE CST...TO L70S INLAND. LO TEMPS SAT NGT FM
THE M40S NW TO L50S SE. HI TEMPS SUN NR 60F AT THE CST...TO 65 TO
70F ELSW. HI TEMPS MON/TUE FM THE M60S TO M70S.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SOUTH INTO FAR NERN COUNTIES OF
THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING. VARIABLE BR WITH VISIBILITIES RANGING
FROM 1-5SM ACROSS THE REGION...WITH POCKETS OF FG WITH
VISIBILITIES FROM 1/4-1/2SM. NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WINDS
ARE NE AROUND 10-15KT. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WINDS ARE LIGHT
FROM THE SOUTH. AS THE FRONT SAGS SWD TODAY...EXPECT SIMILAR WIND
SHIFTS AND SPEEDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MEANWHILE...A DECENT
SWATH OF RAIN SHOWERS ARE PUSHING WWD INTO THE ERN PIEDMONT AS OF
08/0800Z. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EWD ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...BECOMING MORE FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS LOCATED. EXPECT A COMBINATION OF MVFR/IFR CIGS IN RAIN
SHOWERS TODAY. PRECIP COMES TO AN END BY MID TO LATE
EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY OVERNIGHT.
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 400FT AGL WITH VARIABLE
VISIBILITIES IN IFR/MVFR CATEGORIES. THE BACKDOOR FRONT STALLS
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WED NIGHT/THU AND CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SLOW
TO IMPROVE THU MORNING. THE FRONT LIFTS NWD THROUGH THE REGION THU
NIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING. BREEZY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FRI AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION
FRI EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION SAT/SUN.
&&
.MARINE...
SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS INVOF A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE VA EASTERN SHORE AS OF
300 AM THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE S-SW SOUTH
OF THE FRONT...WITH BREEZY N-NE WINDS 10-20KT WITH GUSTS AROUND
25KT NORTH OF THE FRONT. AM ALREADY SEEING AN INCREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS IN CHES BAY NORTH OF TANGIER ISLAND AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO PARRAMORE ISLAND. THE FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY DROP SWD THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY...STALLING ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS TONIGHT INTO THU. EXPECT NNE WINDS TO INCREASE OVER THE
WATERS THROUGH TODAY WITH A BRIEF REPRIEVE TONIGHT. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10-20KT OVER BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-25KT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. SEAS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BUILD FROM 2-3FT TO
5-7FT NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT...3-4FT SOUTH. ONSHORE FLOW
PERSISTS ON THU WITH AN UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS TO 10-15KT DURING
THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW 5FT IN SRN WATERS BY
THU AFTN...WHILE SEAS LINGER AROUND 4-5FT NORTH OF PARRAMORE
ISLAND UNTIL EARLY EVENING. SCA FLAGS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE
CHARLES GO INTO EFFECT AT 600 AM THIS MORNING AND WILL MAINTAIN
THAT START TIME BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS NWD AS A WARM FRONT THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI
AND WINDS BECOME SLY. SEAS 2-3FT...WAVES 1-2FT. SPEEDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE AROUND SUNRISE FRI MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY
DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SPEEDS WILL
AVERAGE 15-20KT (GUSTS UP TO 25KT OVER COASTAL WATERS). SEAS BUILD
TO 3-4FT AND MAY REACH UP TO 5FT NEAR BUOY 44009 BY LATE FRI
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS FRI NIGHT. THE
COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL DURING THE DAY
ON SAT. A DAYTIME ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR WILL DECREASE CHANCES FOR
POST-FRONTAL SCA WINDS. EXPECT NW WINDS ON SAT AOB 15KT...DECREASING
SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND
SETTLES OVER THE WATERS ON SUN/SUN NIGHT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
405 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA EARLY
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FRONT THEN WEAKENS AND LIFTS BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES SFC LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, WITH A QUASI- STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE MID MS VLY OVER INTO THE OHIO VLY AND THE LWR
EASTERN SHORE. NOTING SOME POCKETS OF SHRAS ACROSS THE AREA ON
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES.
NOTING A FEW SCT SHRAS PUSHING ACROSS THE LWR EASTERN SHORE THIS
MORNING ALONG THE FRONT. MEANWHILE, TO THE WEST A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
AREA OF SHRAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH DECAYING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT
ROLLED ACROSS THE OHIO RVR VALLEY LAST NIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY IS
PUSHING FROM E WV/WESTERN VA OVER TO THE PIEDMONT THIS MORNING IN
THE FORM OF SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHRAS. LATEST HRRR AND TO
A LESSER EXTENT THE 00Z NAM HAVE BEST HANDLED THIS FEATURE THUS
FAR... AND HAVE THEREFORE LEANED THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION
FOR THE NEAR TERM. HAVE GONE WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIKELY SHRAS
THIS MORNING MAINLY IN THE WARM SECTOR... WITH THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES FROM THE EASTERN PIEDMONT/WEST OF RIC METRO EARLY THIS
MORNING...REACHING THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY DAWN AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH
CENTRAL VA/HAMPTON ROADS BY MID TO LATE MORNING. EXPECT LESS SHRA
ACTIVITY THIS AFTN BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND HV THEREFORE CUT
BACK ON POP FOR THE AFTN. EXPECT THE FRONT TO THE NORTH TO DROP
SOUTH- SOUTHEAST IN BACKDOOR FASHION THIS MORNING, BRINGING ABOUT
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NE FROM MIDDAY INTO THE AFTN. TEMPERATURES
WILL STABILIZE TO FALL SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN NECK/EASTERN
SHORE, AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN THE WARM
SECTOR OVER INLAND SECTIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER.
FARTHER NORTH, LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE U40S NEAR OCEAN CITY...LOW TO
MID 50S OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION BY EARLY EVENING AS NEXT
DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE MID MO VLY TRANSLATES EAST. WILL INCREASE
POP AGAIN BRIEFLY TONIGHT AS DISTURBANCE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT,
IN PLACE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER THIS EVENING.
RAIN CHANCES DROP OFF AGAIN TONIGHT BEHIND THIS FEATURE
OVERNIGHT. COOLER TONIGHT IN MOIST NE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S NE TO MID 50S SW SECTIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND SLOWLY PUSH BACK NWD AS A WARM FRONT ON
THU...WITH HIGHS RANGING FM THE 50S LWR ERN SHORE TO THE 70S IN
THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS FAR SRN/WRN AREAS.
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE W ON FRI. CHANCES OF
SHRAS/TSTMS INCREASE FM W TO E THRU THE DAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
(60% POPS) IN THE AFTN/EVE HRS. SOME TSTMS MAY HAVE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN...MAINTAINED MENTION IN THE HWO. TEMPS WILL
BE MUCH HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH THE REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC CDFNT TO PUSH OFF THE CST AFT MDNGT FRI NGT...TO BE FOLLOWED
BY HI PRES FM THE WNW BUILDING OVR THE RGN THIS WKND. CONTG HI
CHC/LIKELY POPS FRI EVE...THEN TAPERING OFF W-E THROUGH LT FRI
NGT/EARLY SAT MRNG. XPCG CLRG ON SAT AS DRYING AIR FM THE WNW
SPREADS OVR THE RGN. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE CST BY EARLY NEXT
WK...RESULTING IN WNDS BECOMING SSW...AND MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCRSG. LO TEMPS FRI NGT FM THE M50S NW TO ARND 60F SE. HI TEMPS
SAT IN THE L/M60S AT THE CST...TO L70S INLAND. LO TEMPS SAT NGT FM
THE M40S NW TO L50S SE. HI TEMPS SUN NR 60F AT THE CST...TO 65 TO
70F ELSW. HI TEMPS MON/TUE FM THE M60S TO M70S.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALL TAF SITES VFR EARLY THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE RAIN HAS MOVED
OFFSHORE OR DISSIPATED. WINDS ARE MOSTLY FROM THE SE-S AND LESS
THAN 10KT.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT/WED MORNING. WINDS WILL SHFT TO THE NE OVERNIGHT AND CIGS
WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR CONDS. KRIC/KORF/KPHF SHOULD SEE FRONTAL
PASSAGE IN THE 11Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME...WITH IFR MOVING IN AT OR
JUST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. ATTM...NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF RA/SHRA
ACTIVITY WITH FRONT...ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE LIKELY TO
OCCUR ANYTIME AFTER 06Z WED.
ONCE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AN 18-30 HOUR PERIOD OF IFR/LOW MVFR
CEILINGS LIKELY TO PERSIST BEFORE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHWR/TSTM
ACTIVITY.
&&
.MARINE...
SFC LO PRES WILL DEVELOP/MOVE ACRS THE WTRS INVOF BACKDOOR CDFNT
THAT DROPS S ACRS THE WTRS TNGT THROUGH WED...SWITCHING WNDS TO
THE N-NE. XPCG NNE WINDS TO INCREASE OVER THE WATER VERY LT
TNGT/ERY WED FAR NRN OCN WTRS...THEN CONT ELSW DURG WED. SPEEDS
OF 10-20 KT OVER THE ERN VA RIVERS/BAY/SOUND AND 15 TO 25 KT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS ALSO BUILD TO 5-7 FT NORTH OF CAPE
CHARLES LIGHT...3-4 FT SOUTH. ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS THU WITH SEAS
IN THE NRN WATERS HOVERING AROUND 5-6 FT...COULD BE A PD OF NR 5
FT SRN OCN WTRS WED NGT/THU AS WELL. FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH OF
THE WATERS THU NGT-FRI WITH WNDS BECOMING SSW. COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE WATERS FRI NIGHT. STRONGEST CAA EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF THE
REGION POST CDFNT (INTO SAT)...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE SCA
CONDITIONS ATTM.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...JEF/WRS
MARINE...ALB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
923 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 923 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE CONVECTION ACROSS WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS
MOVE TOWARD THE AREA BEGINNING JUST A LITTLE LATER THIS EVENING.
THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING SOME DAMAGING TORNADOES
ACROSS ILLINOIS. THE STORMS ARE NOW IN THE PROCESS OF CONGEALING
INTO MORE OF A SQUALL LINE. WE ARE EXPECTING THAT DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS AS THEY MOVE INTO THE
LAKESHORE COUNTIES AROUND OR JUST AFTER 10 PM. SOME LARGE HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT YET.
INSTABILITY REMAINS PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH MU CAPES OF
OVER 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE SW CORNER OF THE CWFA WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS TO THE NE. WE COULD SEE INSTABILITY INCREASE A LITTLE IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE AIR MASS ADVECTING IN FROM THE
SW. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS INCREASING TO OVER 40 KNOTS AS THE WAVE
APPROACHES THE AREA. 0-1KM HELICITY IS ON THE INCREASE TO OVER 200
MS/S2 WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SFC LOW...AND COULD INCREASE TO 400
M2/S2.
ONE THING THAT WILL NEGATE THE SEVERE THREAT JUST A LITTLE IS A
SHALLOW INVERSION WITHIN 1K FT OF THE SFC LIKELY DUE TO THE LOSS
OF THE DAYTIME HEATING. THIS IS SHALLOW ENOUGH THAT DAMAGING
WINDS/A TORNADO COULD POSSIBLY OVERCOME IT...ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTH.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE PASSING JUST WEST OF MICHIGAN WILL BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY
RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A
PLEASANT WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW
TORNADOES WILL INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING... MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF I-96. THE THREAT WILL END SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WARM UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO OUR SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO
THE AREA AFTER 5 PM NOW THAT THE POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER KS/NE IS
EJECTING NORTHEAST. THIS FEATURE TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
MOVES TOWARD WISCONSIN LATER THIS EVENING... LEADING TO A DEEPENING
OF THE SFC LOW AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE MILWAUKEE AREA.
THIS SYNOPTIC SET UP WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT/TRIPLE POINT EXTENDING
EAST OF THE DEEPENING SFC LOW LEADS TO STRONG CONCERNS FOR ROTATING
CELLS AND SPIN UPS NEAR THE WARM FRONT THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES INTO
SWRN LWR MI... DUE TO HIGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES AND POTENTIALLY
AVAILABLE UPDRAFT HELICITY. TORNADO WATCHES ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT
JUST UPSTREAM OF SW LWR MI AND THE LATEST WATCH... 41... HAS A MEAN
STORM MOTION VECTOR OF 240 DEGREES AT 40 KTS.
IT SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT TO BELIEVE WE WILL SEE SFC BASED
CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD 00Z BASED
ON LATEST RUC GUIDANCE AND MESOANALYSIS TO OUR SW.
THE OTHER CONCERN THIS EVENING IS FOR LINES/BOWS TO DEVELOP IN THE
UPSTREAM TORNADO WATCH AREAS AND RACE RAPIDLY EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS
PARTS OF SW MI. THESE FEATURES COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WIND GUSTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
ALTHOUGH ANY STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION WILL END AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT... STRONG SYNOPTIC WIND GUSTS
BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO CONTINUED DEEPENING OF THE SFC LOW OVR NRN
LWR MI WILL LEAD TO SOME GUSTS TO 50 MPH OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WITH HIGH CLOUD BASES UNDER THE UPPER LOW ON
FRIDAY COULD HELP PROMOTE STRONG GUSTS AS WELL. WILL ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THINGS QUIET DOWN CONSIDERABLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER FOR A CHANGE FROM SUNDAY AT LEAST INTO
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. STILL A CHANCE OF A WET STRETCH ON WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY BUT TIMING IS REALLY UNCERTAIN.
OVERALL PATTER IS SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE WITH GOOD NWP AGREEMENT ON
WEST COAST TROF AND EAST COAST RIDGE DEVELOPING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SUCH A PATTERN WILL PROVIDE THE WARMTH WITH POSITIVE H85 TEMPS
THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK.
AFTER MID 60S ON SUNDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THINKING IT WILL LIKELY COOL MONDAY BY JUST A FEW DEGREES
OVER SUNDAY AS THE UPSTREAM HIGH IS WEAK AND THERE IS JUST NOT MUCH
OF A PUSH OF COLD AIR. THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY EVENING SO STILL THINKING SCT
SHOWERS ARE A GOOD BET WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ITSELF. IN ANY CASE
IT SHOULD BE A QUICK HITTER AND AT LEAST THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY
WILL BE DRY AND SEASONABLE.
AFTER THAT THERE IS MUCH DISAGREEMENT ON HOW PROGRESSIVE WEST COAST
TROF WILL BE AND HOW MUCH AND WHEN WILL A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
EJECT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN GREAT LAKES.
EACH OF THE PAST FEW DAYS THE GFS/ECM HAVE BEEN DELAYING THE SYSTEM
BY A DAY...YESTERDAY THE SIGNAL WAS FOR A WEDNESDAY EVENT WHILE
TODAY
IT IS NOW LOOKING LIKE A THURSDAY EVENT. BASICALLY...THE POTENTIAL
HIS SMEARED OUT IN THE FORECAST WITH CHANCE POPS FOR TUE NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 803 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
OTHER THAN SOME MARINE FOG IMPACTING MKG... WE HAVE GONE MOSTLY
VFR ACROSS SRN LWR MI WITH THE WARM FRONT NORTH SURGING THROUGH
THE AREA.
WE ARE CURRENTLY IN A LULL AS FAR AS CONVECTION GOES RIGHT NOW...
BUT NUMEROUS TSTMS TO OUR WEST SHOULD ARRIVE 01Z-03Z AND IMPACT
THE TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 06Z OR SO.
WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR CIGS SHOULD ARRIVE/FILL IN AFTER THE TSTMS
HAVE PASSED AND A FEW RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER AS WELL. CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR LEVELS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
LOOK FOR WINDS TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST LATER
TONIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS LIKELY. THESE STRONG WIND
GUSTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 18Z FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
DECREASING TREND.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
WILL UPGRADE THE GALE WATCH TO A WARNING AS WINDS INCREASE
DRAMATICALLY OUT OF THE WEST LATER TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
ALSO AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL IMPACT LK MI UNTIL AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE DRIER AIR AND STRONG WINDS ARRIVE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 534 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE PAST 15 HOURS IN PORTIONS
OF OTTAWA... KENT... AND OCEANA COUNTIES. 1 TO 2 INCHES HAS FALLEN
IN MANY LAKESHORE AND CENTRAL MICHIGAN COMMUNITIES... AND A
QUARTER INCH TO 1 INCH IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. A FEW RIVERS HAVE
BEGUN RISING. THE ROGUE BELOW ROCKFORD IS ALREADY ABOVE BANKFULL.
SEVERAL OTHER RIVERS ARE FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE OR CLOSE TO BANKFULL.
AS SUCH... RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED IN ADDITION TO
THE AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY. RIVERS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED TONIGHT
AS MORE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ037>040-
043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...COBB
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...MEADE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
803 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE PASSING JUST WEST OF MICHIGAN WILL BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY
RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A
PLEASANT WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW
TORNADOES WILL INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING... MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF I-96. THE THREAT WILL END SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WARM UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO OUR SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO
THE AREA AFTER 5 PM NOW THAT THE POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER KS/NE IS
EJECTING NORTHEAST. THIS FEATURE TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
MOVES TOWARD WISCONSIN LATER THIS EVENING... LEADING TO A DEEPENING
OF THE SFC LOW AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE MILWAUKEE AREA.
THIS SYNOPTIC SET UP WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT/TRIPLE POINT EXTENDING
EAST OF THE DEEPENING SFC LOW LEADS TO STRONG CONCERNS FOR ROTATING
CELLS AND SPIN UPS NEAR THE WARM FRONT THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES INTO
SWRN LWR MI... DUE TO HIGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES AND POTENTIALLY
AVAILABLE UPDRAFT HELICITY. TORNADO WATCHES ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT
JUST UPSTREAM OF SW LWR MI AND THE LATEST WATCH... 41... HAS A MEAN
STORM MOTION VECTOR OF 240 DEGREES AT 40 KTS.
IT SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT TO BELIEVE WE WILL SEE SFC BASED
CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD 00Z BASED
ON LATEST RUC GUIDANCE AND MESOANALYSIS TO OUR SW.
THE OTHER CONCERN THIS EVENING IS FOR LINES/BOWS TO DEVELOP IN THE
UPSTREAM TORNADO WATCH AREAS AND RACE RAPIDLY EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS
PARTS OF SW MI. THESE FEATURES COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WIND GUSTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
ALTHOUGH ANY STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION WILL END AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT... STRONG SYNOPTIC WIND GUSTS
BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO CONTINUED DEEPENING OF THE SFC LOW OVR NRN
LWR MI WILL LEAD TO SOME GUSTS TO 50 MPH OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WITH HIGH CLOUD BASES UNDER THE UPPER LOW ON
FRIDAY COULD HELP PROMOTE STRONG GUSTS AS WELL. WILL ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THINGS QUIET DOWN CONSIDERABLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER FOR A CHANGE FROM SUNDAY AT LEAST INTO
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. STILL A CHANCE OF A WET STRETCH ON WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY BUT TIMING IS REALLY UNCERTAIN.
OVERALL PATTER IS SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE WITH GOOD NWP AGREEMENT ON
WEST COAST TROF AND EAST COAST RIDGE DEVELOPING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SUCH A PATTERN WILL PROVIDE THE WARMTH WITH POSITIVE H85 TEMPS
THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK.
AFTER MID 60S ON SUNDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THINKING IT WILL LIKELY COOL MONDAY BY JUST A FEW DEGREES
OVER SUNDAY AS THE UPSTREAM HIGH IS WEAK AND THERE IS JUST NOT MUCH
OF A PUSH OF COLD AIR. THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY EVENING SO STILL THINKING SCT
SHOWERS ARE A GOOD BET WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ITSELF. IN ANY CASE
IT SHOULD BE A QUICK HITTER AND AT LEAST THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY
WILL BE DRY AND SEASONABLE.
AFTER THAT THERE IS MUCH DISAGREEMENT ON HOW PROGRESSIVE WEST COAST
TROF WILL BE AND HOW MUCH AND WHEN WILL A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
EJECT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN GREAT LAKES.
EACH OF THE PAST FEW DAYS THE GFS/ECM HAVE BEEN DELAYING THE SYSTEM
BY A DAY...YESTERDAY THE SIGNAL WAS FOR A WEDNESDAY EVENT WHILE
TODAY
IT IS NOW LOOKING LIKE A THURSDAY EVENT. BASICALLY...THE POTENTIAL
HIS SMEARED OUT IN THE FORECAST WITH CHANCE POPS FOR TUE NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 803 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
OTHER THAN SOME MARINE FOG IMPACTING MKG... WE HAVE GONE MOSTLY
VFR ACROSS SRN LWR MI WITH THE WARM FRONT NORTH SURGING THROUGH
THE AREA.
WE ARE CURRENTLY IN A LULL AS FAR AS CONVECTION GOES RIGHT NOW...
BUT NUMEROUS TSTMS TO OUR WEST SHOULD ARRIVE 01Z-03Z AND IMPACT
THE TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 06Z OR SO.
WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR CIGS SHOULD ARRIVE/FILL IN AFTER THE TSTMS
HAVE PASSED AND A FEW RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER AS WELL. CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR LEVELS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
LOOK FOR WINDS TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST LATER
TONIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS LIKELY. THESE STRONG WIND
GUSTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 18Z FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
DECREASING TREND.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
WILL UPGRADE THE GALE WATCH TO A WARNING AS WINDS INCREASE
DRAMATICALLY OUT OF THE WEST LATER TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
ALSO AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL IMPACT LK MI UNTIL AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE DRIER AIR AND STRONG WINDS ARRIVE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 534 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE PAST 15 HOURS IN PORTIONS
OF OTTAWA... KENT... AND OCEANA COUNTIES. 1 TO 2 INCHES HAS FALLEN
IN MANY LAKESHORE AND CENTRAL MICHIGAN COMMUNITIES... AND A
QUARTER INCH TO 1 INCH IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. A FEW RIVERS HAVE
BEGUN RISING. THE ROGUE BELOW ROCKFORD IS ALREADY ABOVE BANKFULL.
SEVERAL OTHER RIVERS ARE FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE OR CLOSE TO BANKFULL.
AS SUCH... RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED IN ADDITION TO
THE AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY. RIVERS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED TONIGHT
AS MORE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ037>040-
043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...COBB
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...MEADE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
656 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW PAIR OF SHORTWAVES
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF PCPN EARLIER TODAY NOW N AND
E OF THE FCST AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM MANITOBA INTO NRN
ONTARIO WON`T BE A FACTOR IN THE SHORT TERM WEATHER. FARTHER TO THE
NW AND ALSO TO THE SW ARE 2 SHORTWAVES THAT WILL PLAY A ROLE IN WHAT
WILL BECOME A QUICK HITTING SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOWSTORM FOR
PORTIONS OF UPPER MI THU NIGHT. ONE WAVE IS DROPPING INTO NRN
MANITOBA AND THE SECOND WAVE IS OVER NV/UT. DETAILS ON THE HVY/WET
SNOW CAN BE FOUND IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION BELOW.
IN THE WAKE OF THE PCPN EARLIER TODAY...ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
DOMINATES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...THOUGH NOT ALL OF THE LOW-LEVEL
DRY AIR HAS BEEN ERODED...AND THERE IS STILL A FEED OF DRIER AIR AT
THE LOW LEVELS FROM THE E. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SOME BREAKS
DEVELOPING IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER UPPER MI IN THE LAST FEW HRS.
WHERE SOME SUN HAS APPEARED...TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 40S.
SHORTWAVE OVER NV/UT WILL SHIFT E AND RESULT IN SFC LOW PRES
DEVELOPING OVER KS TONIGHT. FARTHER DOWNSTREAM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SUGGESTS MORE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING OUT OVER THE PLAINS.
INCREASING WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME DOWNSTREAM OF THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE TROF AND ENHANCED BY THE SUBTLE LEAD ENERGY WILL LEAD TO A
AN AREA OF RAIN DEVELOPING AND SPREADING/EXPANDING NE INTO UPPER MI
LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING. BASED ON NRN EDGE OF THE POOL OF
MUCAPE THAT LIFTS N INTO WI...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE
COULD BE FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WHETHER TEMPS WILL BE BLO FREEZING
WHEN PCPN BEGINS IS UNCERTAIN. USING MODEL CONSENSUS DIURNAL TEMP
CURVE SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE AREAS WHERE TEMPS MAY BE JUST BLO
FREEZING LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING. HOWEVER...IF TEMPS DON`T
FALL MUCH THIS EVENING...-FZRA POTENTIAL WILL BE DIMINISHED. AT THIS
TIME...NOT EXPECTING SUFFICIENT ICE PROBLEMS ON ROADWAYS TO WARRANT
ADVY ISSUANCE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL OF SOME ICY
CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED SURFACES LATE TONIGHT THRU MID MORNING THU.
AFTER THE INITIAL SURGE OF WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT PCPN THAT SWEEPS NE
LATE TONIGHT/THU MORNING...WILL PROBABLY SEE -RA DIMINISH OR BECOME
MORE SCATTERED FOR A TIME LATE MORNING THRU MID AFTN OR SO AS WE
AWAIT THE MAIN SHORTWAVE/STRONG DYNAMICS THAT WILL LIFT INTO THE
UPPER LAKES THU NIGHT. PCPN IS LESS LIKELY TO DIMINISH OVER THE W
WHERE 850MB TROF WILL EXTEND NE FROM THE APPROACHING LOW ACROSS WRN
UPPER MI/WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015
COMPLEX FORECAST FRONT LOADED IN FIRST PERIOD OF LONG TERM. HIGH
IMPACT WEATHER EXPECTED IN FORM OF RAIN CHANGING TO HEAVY SNOW.
MAIN FACTORS COMING INTO FOCUS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WEATHER. FIRST
ALOFT...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN CONUS THIS MORNING
MOVES TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY THURSDAY EVENING WHILE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS AFTN MOVES
TO AXIS FM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. MAIN JET STREAK
LIFTS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY EVENING WHILE
ANOTHER JET WILL BE IN PROCESS OF EXITING TOWARD GREAT LAKES. AS THE
PLAINS JET ARRIVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY EVENING...LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT
LIFTS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. FOR MOST PART...LEAD WAVE DRIVES
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF H85-H7 TROUGH AND PRIMARY SFC LOW...WHICH
TRACKS FM IOWA AT 00Z FRIDAY TO NORTHERN LK MICHIGAN/NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN BY 06Z FRIDAY AND TO EAST OF SAULT STE MARIE BY 12Z FRIDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON WESTWARD EXTENT OF SFC LOW WHICH
AFFECTS WHERE SWATH OF HEAVY QPF WELL OVER 1 INCH OCCURS ROUGHLY 00Z-
09Z ON FRIDAY. GIVEN VERY STRONG LIFT FM COUPLED JET STRUCTURE AND
ENHANCED DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND PERSISTENT STRONG MID-LEVEL FGEN ALONG
WITH COPIOUS DEEP MOISTURE THAT SHOULD BE ABLE TO TRANSLATE INTO THE
DEEPENING SYSTEM AS MAIN INFLOW FOR TSRA SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH
SOUTHEAST OF UPR MICHIGAN...TEND TO BELIEVE WETTER IDEAS OFFERED UP
BY NAM/GFS SHOWING WELL OVER 1 INCH OF QPF. THOUGH ECMWF REMAINS
DRIER...IT HAS SHOWN NOTEABLE TREND TOWARD STRONGER SYSTEM THE LAST
DAY...SO THAT IS ENCOURAGING AT LEAST FROM THE FORECAST STANDPOINT.
RUNNING WITH THE STRONGER/WETTER IDEA...MAIN STICKING POINT IS HOW
QUICK THE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THE EARLIER THAT
SWITCHOVER OCCURS...THE MORE THAT HEAVY QPF WILL GO TOWARD WET HEAVY
SNOW ACCUMULATION. NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM LAYER BTWN 900MB-800MB
VCNTY OF L`ANSE TO WATERSMEET AT 00Z...THEN TO CRYSTAL FALLS AND
MARQUETTE/HARVEY BY 03Z...BEFORE PUSHING THIS ON THE MUNISING AND
ESCANABA BY 06Z. GFS AND GEM-REGIONAL ARE FARTHER WEST WITH WARM
LAYER ALOFT...THOUGH THEY BOTH TRENDED A BIT EAST WITH TRACK OF SFC
LOW ON THE 12Z RUNS. EXPECT HEAVY WET SNOW TO IMPACT PARTS OF
WESTERN HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN. RETREATING WARM LAYER TO START COULD
ALSO RESULT IN SLEET OF FZRA BEFORE CHANGE TO SNOW OCCURS.
DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN AS
THERE SHOULD BE A NARROW STRIPE OF POSSIBLE VERY HEAVY WET SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE FORCING AND MOISTURE...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS
OVER 8 INCHES SEEM POSSIBLE. MAIN QUANDARY WAS HOW FAR WEST AND EAST
TO PUSH THE WATCH. LEANED A BIT TOWARD THE FARTHER EAST WARM LAYER
IDEA WHICH RESULTED IN BRINGING THE WATCH AS FAR EAST AS MARQUETTE
COUNTY. GIVEN DECENT CHANCE THAT PRECIP STAYS MAINLY RAIN WELL INTO
THE EVENING FOR DICKINSON COUNTY LEFT THEM OUT FOR NOW...THOUGH
COULD SEE NEED FOR ADVY FOR EVENTUALLY SLOPPY INCH OR TWO OF SNOW.
CORRIDER OF HEAVY SNOW LIKELY WILL NOT MAKE IT AS FAR WEST AS IWD
THOUGH LATEST HPC/WWD GRAPHICS STILL HIT FAR WEST FOR DECENT AMOUNT
OF SNOW...BUT SINCE EASTERN PORTIONS OF GOGEBIC COUNTY INTO
ONTONAGON COUNTY WOULD BE IMPACTED BY THE HEAVY SNOW WITH LATEST
THINKING...INCLUDED GOGEBIC AS WELL. ESSENTIALLY SINCE THIS EVENT
COULD BE VERY HIGH IMPACT DECIDED TO GO THIS ROUTE INSTEAD OF HAVING
AN SPS OUT ONLY. WILL TRY TO CONVEY THE UNCERTAINTY DUE TO BOTH
LOCATION OF HEAVIER SNOW AND PTYPE IN THE WSW STATEMENT. COORD WITH
DLH AND GRB ON SNOW AMOUNTS/HEADLINE TIMING.
LOW PRESSURE EXITS OVER EASTERN CANADA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/THERMAL TROUGHING AND ADDITIONAL
FORCING FM THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DROPPING OVER THE AREA SUPPORTS
CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW ON FRIDAY THOUGH MOST OF THE BIGGER SNOW WILL
BE DONE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. KEPT WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S ON
FRIDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS TOO...ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR IN THE
MORNING HOURS. SFC RIDGE CROSSES FRIDAY NIGHT AND TEMPS COULD DIP
INTO THE TEENS. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE LAST NIGHT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WHERE TEMPS DROP BLO FREEZING.
TEMPS THIS WEEKEND LOOKS WARMER...MUCH WARMER. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE
LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGH THAT
MOVES FM SCNTRL CANADA TO NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. MIXING HEIGHTS
UP TO H85 WITH SW WINDS SUPPORT READINGS WELL INTO THE 50S. COOLEST
TEMPS OVER EAST CWA WITH FLOW COMING OFF LK MICHIGAN. SOME LGT RAIN
MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ON SUNDAY AS GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN
SHOWING FOR A WHILE NOW. EVEN SO...WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AND WARMER MIN
TEMPS ON SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOW MANY AREAS TO REACH 60 DEGREES. SO ANY
SNOW THAT DOES OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY SHOULD QUICKLY MELT
THIS WEEKEND.
FURTHER...ONCE THE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING ON SATURDAY THEY SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK SO WE SHOULD ALSO
BEGIN TO MELT GOOD PORTION OF THE SNOWPACK THAT REMAINS OVER MAINLY
NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN. SHOULD SEE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS BEGIN TO
RESPOND WITH THE SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL POSSIBLE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT MOVE
TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES. ANY RAINFALL FM
THIS SYSTEM WOULD ONLY ADD TO THE RUNOFF. SEEMS THAT AFTER THIS
WINTRY SYSTEM WE MIGHT JUST SHIFT INTO THE MAIN SNOWMELT HYDROLOGY
PERIOD OF THE SPRING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015
GUIDANCE IS STRONGLY POINTING TOWARD DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING AND WILL GO WITH THIS TREND AT ALL SITES. AS MOISTURE AND
PCPN SPREAD N LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THU...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO FALL TO
IFR AT ALL TERMINALS. PCPN MAY BEGIN AS -FZRA FOR 2-3HRS AT
KCMX/KSAW...BUT WILL CHANGE TO -RA AS TEMPS RISE DURING THE MORNING.
KSAW IS LIKELY TO FALL TO LIFR BY MID MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 456 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015
HIGH PRES MOVING E ACROSS QUEBEC AND LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS WILL KEEP LAKE SUPERIOR UNDER GENERAL E TO NE WINDS
OF 10-20KT THRU EARLY THU AFTN. AS THE LOW PRES TRACKS NE ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE MI THU EVENING AND INTO ONTARIO FRI MORNING...WINDS
WILL BACK TO THE NW. OVER THE CNTRL PART OF LAKE SUPERIOR...THE WIND
WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 20-30KT...AND OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR N TO NW
GALES WILL DEVELOP BY FRI MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH W TO E
FRI AFTN THRU FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. LIGHT WINDS UNDER 20KT ARE EXPECTED SAT AS THE HIGH PRES
RIDGE PASSES ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E AND A
LOW PRES TROF MOVES E ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...WINDS WILL THEN
INCREASE SAT NIGHT/SUN...PROBABLY REACHING 15-25KT OR MORE OVER AT
LEAST THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON SUN. THE TROF WILL CROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE W.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR MIZ001>005-009-010-084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
456 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW PAIR OF SHORTWAVES
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF PCPN EARLIER TODAY NOW N AND
E OF THE FCST AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM MANITOBA INTO NRN
ONTARIO WON`T BE A FACTOR IN THE SHORT TERM WEATHER. FARTHER TO THE
NW AND ALSO TO THE SW ARE 2 SHORTWAVES THAT WILL PLAY A ROLE IN WHAT
WILL BECOME A QUICK HITTING SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOWSTORM FOR
PORTIONS OF UPPER MI THU NIGHT. ONE WAVE IS DROPPING INTO NRN
MANITOBA AND THE SECOND WAVE IS OVER NV/UT. DETAILS ON THE HVY/WET
SNOW CAN BE FOUND IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION BELOW.
IN THE WAKE OF THE PCPN EARLIER TODAY...ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
DOMINATES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...THOUGH NOT ALL OF THE LOW-LEVEL
DRY AIR HAS BEEN ERODED...AND THERE IS STILL A FEED OF DRIER AIR AT
THE LOW LEVELS FROM THE E. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SOME BREAKS
DEVELOPING IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER UPPER MI IN THE LAST FEW HRS.
WHERE SOME SUN HAS APPEARED...TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 40S.
SHORTWAVE OVER NV/UT WILL SHIFT E AND RESULT IN SFC LOW PRES
DEVELOPING OVER KS TONIGHT. FARTHER DOWNSTREAM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SUGGESTS MORE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING OUT OVER THE PLAINS.
INCREASING WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME DOWNSTREAM OF THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE TROF AND ENHANCED BY THE SUBTLE LEAD ENERGY WILL LEAD TO A
AN AREA OF RAIN DEVELOPING AND SPREADING/EXPANDING NE INTO UPPER MI
LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING. BASED ON NRN EDGE OF THE POOL OF
MUCAPE THAT LIFTS N INTO WI...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE
COULD BE FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WHETHER TEMPS WILL BE BLO FREEZING
WHEN PCPN BEGINS IS UNCERTAIN. USING MODEL CONSENSUS DIURNAL TEMP
CURVE SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE AREAS WHERE TEMPS MAY BE JUST BLO
FREEZING LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING. HOWEVER...IF TEMPS DON`T
FALL MUCH THIS EVENING...-FZRA POTENTIAL WILL BE DIMINISHED. AT THIS
TIME...NOT EXPECTING SUFFICIENT ICE PROBLEMS ON ROADWAYS TO WARRANT
ADVY ISSUANCE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL OF SOME ICY
CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED SURFACES LATE TONIGHT THRU MID MORNING THU.
AFTER THE INITIAL SURGE OF WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT PCPN THAT SWEEPS NE
LATE TONIGHT/THU MORNING...WILL PROBABLY SEE -RA DIMINISH OR BECOME
MORE SCATTERED FOR A TIME LATE MORNING THRU MID AFTN OR SO AS WE
AWAIT THE MAIN SHORTWAVE/STRONG DYNAMICS THAT WILL LIFT INTO THE
UPPER LAKES THU NIGHT. PCPN IS LESS LIKELY TO DIMINISH OVER THE W
WHERE 850MB TROF WILL EXTEND NE FROM THE APPROACHING LOW ACROSS WRN
UPPER MI/WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015
COMPLEX FORECAST FRONT LOADED IN FIRST PERIOD OF LONG TERM. HIGH
IMPACT WEATHER EXPECTED IN FORM OF RAIN CHANGING TO HEAVY SNOW.
MAIN FACTORS COMING INTO FOCUS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WEATHER. FIRST
ALOFT...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN CONUS THIS MORNING
MOVES TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY THURSDAY EVENING WHILE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS AFTN MOVES
TO AXIS FM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. MAIN JET STREAK
LIFTS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY EVENING WHILE
ANOTHER JET WILL BE IN PROCESS OF EXITING TOWARD GREAT LAKES. AS THE
PLAINS JET ARRIVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY EVENING...LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT
LIFTS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. FOR MOST PART...LEAD WAVE DRIVES
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF H85-H7 TROUGH AND PRIMARY SFC LOW...WHICH
TRACKS FM IOWA AT 00Z FRIDAY TO NORTHERN LK MICHIGAN/NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN BY 06Z FRIDAY AND TO EAST OF SAULT STE MARIE BY 12Z FRIDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON WESTWARD EXTENT OF SFC LOW WHICH
AFFECTS WHERE SWATH OF HEAVY QPF WELL OVER 1 INCH OCCURS ROUGHLY 00Z-
09Z ON FRIDAY. GIVEN VERY STRONG LIFT FM COUPLED JET STRUCTURE AND
ENHANCED DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND PERSISTENT STRONG MID-LEVEL FGEN ALONG
WITH COPIOUS DEEP MOISTURE THAT SHOULD BE ABLE TO TRANSLATE INTO THE
DEEPENING SYSTEM AS MAIN INFLOW FOR TSRA SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH
SOUTHEAST OF UPR MICHIGAN...TEND TO BELIEVE WETTER IDEAS OFFERED UP
BY NAM/GFS SHOWING WELL OVER 1 INCH OF QPF. THOUGH ECMWF REMAINS
DRIER...IT HAS SHOWN NOTEABLE TREND TOWARD STRONGER SYSTEM THE LAST
DAY...SO THAT IS ENCOURAGING AT LEAST FROM THE FORECAST STANDPOINT.
RUNNING WITH THE STRONGER/WETTER IDEA...MAIN STICKING POINT IS HOW
QUICK THE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THE EARLIER THAT
SWITCHOVER OCCURS...THE MORE THAT HEAVY QPF WILL GO TOWARD WET HEAVY
SNOW ACCUMULATION. NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM LAYER BTWN 900MB-800MB
VCNTY OF L`ANSE TO WATERSMEET AT 00Z...THEN TO CRYSTAL FALLS AND
MARQUETTE/HARVEY BY 03Z...BEFORE PUSHING THIS ON THE MUNISING AND
ESCANABA BY 06Z. GFS AND GEM-REGIONAL ARE FARTHER WEST WITH WARM
LAYER ALOFT...THOUGH THEY BOTH TRENDED A BIT EAST WITH TRACK OF SFC
LOW ON THE 12Z RUNS. EXPECT HEAVY WET SNOW TO IMPACT PARTS OF
WESTERN HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN. RETREATING WARM LAYER TO START COULD
ALSO RESULT IN SLEET OF FZRA BEFORE CHANGE TO SNOW OCCURS.
DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN AS
THERE SHOULD BE A NARROW STRIPE OF POSSIBLE VERY HEAVY WET SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE FORCING AND MOISTURE...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS
OVER 8 INCHES SEEM POSSIBLE. MAIN QUANDARY WAS HOW FAR WEST AND EAST
TO PUSH THE WATCH. LEANED A BIT TOWARD THE FARTHER EAST WARM LAYER
IDEA WHICH RESULTED IN BRINGING THE WATCH AS FAR EAST AS MARQUETTE
COUNTY. GIVEN DECENT CHANCE THAT PRECIP STAYS MAINLY RAIN WELL INTO
THE EVENING FOR DICKINSON COUNTY LEFT THEM OUT FOR NOW...THOUGH
COULD SEE NEED FOR ADVY FOR EVENTUALLY SLOPPY INCH OR TWO OF SNOW.
CORRIDER OF HEAVY SNOW LIKELY WILL NOT MAKE IT AS FAR WEST AS IWD
THOUGH LATEST HPC/WWD GRAPHICS STILL HIT FAR WEST FOR DECENT AMOUNT
OF SNOW...BUT SINCE EASTERN PORTIONS OF GOGEBIC COUNTY INTO
ONTONAGON COUNTY WOULD BE IMPACTED BY THE HEAVY SNOW WITH LATEST
THINKING...INCLUDED GOGEBIC AS WELL. ESSENTIALLY SINCE THIS EVENT
COULD BE VERY HIGH IMPACT DECIDED TO GO THIS ROUTE INSTEAD OF HAVING
AN SPS OUT ONLY. WILL TRY TO CONVEY THE UNCERTAINTY DUE TO BOTH
LOCATION OF HEAVIER SNOW AND PTYPE IN THE WSW STATEMENT. COORD WITH
DLH AND GRB ON SNOW AMOUNTS/HEADLINE TIMING.
LOW PRESSURE EXITS OVER EASTERN CANADA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/THERMAL TROUGHING AND ADDITIONAL
FORCING FM THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DROPPING OVER THE AREA SUPPORTS
CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW ON FRIDAY THOUGH MOST OF THE BIGGER SNOW WILL
BE DONE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. KEPT WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S ON
FRIDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS TOO...ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR IN THE
MORNING HOURS. SFC RIDGE CROSSES FRIDAY NIGHT AND TEMPS COULD DIP
INTO THE TEENS. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE LAST NIGHT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WHERE TEMPS DROP BLO FREEZING.
TEMPS THIS WEEKEND LOOKS WARMER...MUCH WARMER. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE
LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGH THAT
MOVES FM SCNTRL CANADA TO NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. MIXING HEIGHTS
UP TO H85 WITH SW WINDS SUPPORT READINGS WELL INTO THE 50S. COOLEST
TEMPS OVER EAST CWA WITH FLOW COMING OFF LK MICHIGAN. SOME LGT RAIN
MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ON SUNDAY AS GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN
SHOWING FOR A WHILE NOW. EVEN SO...WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AND WARMER MIN
TEMPS ON SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOW MANY AREAS TO REACH 60 DEGREES. SO ANY
SNOW THAT DOES OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY SHOULD QUICKLY MELT
THIS WEEKEND.
FURTHER...ONCE THE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING ON SATURDAY THEY SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK SO WE SHOULD ALSO
BEGIN TO MELT GOOD PORTION OF THE SNOWPACK THAT REMAINS OVER MAINLY
NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN. SHOULD SEE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS BEGIN TO
RESPOND WITH THE SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL POSSIBLE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT MOVE
TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES. ANY RAINFALL FM
THIS SYSTEM WOULD ONLY ADD TO THE RUNOFF. SEEMS THAT AFTER THIS
WINTRY SYSTEM WE MIGHT JUST SHIFT INTO THE MAIN SNOWMELT HYDROLOGY
PERIOD OF THE SPRING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015
MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW INTO THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH A FEED OF DRY AIR FROM THE E BASED ON SFC
OBS...TERMINALS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR AT SOME POINT THIS AFTN. BEING
CLOSER TO THE DRIER AIR...KSAW HAS THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF VFR.
GUIDANCE IS STRONGLY POINTING TOWARD DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING...BUT BELIEVE DRY AIR MAY CONTINUE TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE
UNDER AN E TO ESE FLOW. THUS...IF VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP THIS
AFTN...VFR MAY LINGER THRU THE EVENING. AS MOISTURE AND PCPN SPREAD
N LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THU...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO FALL TO IFR AT ALL
TERMINALS. PCPN MAY BEGIN AS -FZRA FOR 2-3HRS AT KCMX/KSAW...BUT
WILL CHANGE TO -RA AS TEMPS RISE DURING THE MORNING. KSAW IS LIKELY
TO FALL TO LIFR BY MID MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 456 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015
HIGH PRES MOVING E ACROSS QUEBEC AND LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS WILL KEEP LAKE SUPERIOR UNDER GENERAL E TO NE WINDS
OF 10-20KT THRU EARLY THU AFTN. AS THE LOW PRES TRACKS NE ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE MI THU EVENING AND INTO ONTARIO FRI MORNING...WINDS
WILL BACK TO THE NW. OVER THE CNTRL PART OF LAKE SUPERIOR...THE WIND
WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 20-30KT...AND OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR N TO NW
GALES WILL DEVELOP BY FRI MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH W TO E
FRI AFTN THRU FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. LIGHT WINDS UNDER 20KT ARE EXPECTED SAT AS THE HIGH PRES
RIDGE PASSES ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E AND A
LOW PRES TROF MOVES E ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...WINDS WILL THEN
INCREASE SAT NIGHT/SUN...PROBABLY REACHING 15-25KT OR MORE OVER AT
LEAST THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON SUN. THE TROF WILL CROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE W.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR MIZ001>005-009-010-084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
436 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 448 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW THAT THE CONFLUENT FLOW
THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS SHIFTING E AND NE AS
THE NRN STREAM TROF OVER ERN CANADA IS SLOWLY LIFTING OUT AND SRN
BRANCH RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS DOWNSTREAM OF TROF ALONG THE W COAST IS
GRADUALLY BUILDING NE AND E. SFC HIGH PRES SUPPORTED BY THE
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT RIDGES W-E ACROSS NRN ONTARIO INTO SRN QUEBEC.
ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN SOME MID-LEVEL RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THE
FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY EARLIER TODAY...THE VERY DRY AIR AT THE LOWER
LEVELS EMANATING FROM THE HIGH PRES RIDGE HAS RESULTED IN DRY
WEATHER ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY. IN FACT...THE KEWEENAW AND ERN
UPPER MI HAVE ENJOYED MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY.
TO THE S...WARM FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM KS ACROSS CNTRL
IL INTO NRN OHIO. TO THE W AND SW...A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE IS
TRACKING ENE ACROSS SE SASKATCHEWAN WHILE WEAKER WAVES ARE MOVING
ACROSS WY/CO AND OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS. THESE FEATURES WILL PLAY A
ROLE IN A CHALLENGING FCST HERE TONIGHT/WED.
INITIALLY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL THIS EVENING UNDER A
CONTINUED FEED OF DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR FROM THE E AND NE. SFC DWPTS AS
OF 19Z WERE STILL MOSTLY IN THE 5-10F RANGE ALONG THE MI/WI
BORDER...INDICATING THE DRYNESS THAT IS STILL AT THE SFC...AND
LATEST RAP FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS
HANGING ON DURING THE EVENING. LATER TONIGHT INTO WED...FOCUS SHIFTS
TO THE AFORMENTIONED SHORTWAVES. THE STRONGER NRN WAVE WILL REACH
NRN ONTARIO EARLY WED MORNING WHILE THE WEAKER SRN WAVES WILL TRACK
INTO THE UPPER LAKES. TRACK OF THE STRONGER NRN WAVE INDICATES ITS
MAIN FORCING WILL PASS N OF HERE...AND THAT IS WHAT MODELS SHOW FOR
PROGRESSION OF DEEP LAYER QVECTORS. FARTHER S...THE WEAKER SRN WAVES
WILL BE ABLE TO INTERACT WITH THE SFC-850MB WARM FRONT AND
CONSIDERABLY MORE GENEROUS MOISTURE AS WELL AS ABUNDANT INSTABILITY.
LEAD SUBTLE WAVE IS ALREADY GENERATING AN EXPANDING AREA OF
SHRA/TSRA IN SRN MN/NW IA ON THE MUCAPE GRADIENT PER LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS. THRU WED MORNING...MODELS SHOW 850MB WARM FRONT NEVER
LIFTING ANY FARTHER N THAN SRN WI. BELIEVE THOSE MODEL SOLUTIONS
WHICH SHOW THE MAIN AREA OF PCPN PASSING S OF UPPER MI TONIGHT/WED
MORNING CLOSER TO 850MB WARM FRONT OR EVEN SFC FRONT ARE PROBABLY ON
THE RIGHT TRACK. THIS WOULD BE ESPECIALLY TRUE IF SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION ENDS UP DEVELOPING/EXPANDING NEAR THE WARM FRONT...A
DEFINITE POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL
REMAIN MUCH FARTHER S. WHILE THE SHRA/TSRA MOVING ACROSS SRN MN INTO
SW WI IS A CONCERN...THAT PCPN SHOULD TEND TO PEEL MORE EASTWARD
WITH TIME AS THE SHRA/TSRA SHOULDN`T BREAK TOO FAR AWAY FROM THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT WHICH WILL REMAIN WELL S OF HERE. SO...THE GFS
WHICH CARRIES 1/3RD TO 1/2 INCH OF PCPN INTO SCNTRL UPPER MI
CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS WHICH
ARE MUCH LIGHTER ON PCPN. NONETHELESS...TAIL END OF NRN SHORTWAVE
WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR AN EXTENSION OF PCPN N AND NW FROM HEAVIER
PCPN TO THE S. UTILIZING A CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR POPS...WEIGHTED
TOWARD HIGH RES GUIDANCE...WILL SPREAD A BAND OF CHC POPS ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT/WED MORNING WITH TREND TOWARD LOWER POPS OVER THE
NRN/ERN FCST AREA. WILL INCLUDE LIKELY POPS INTO MENOMINEE COUNTY.
PCPN WILL END (OR DIMINISH TO DZ BEFORE ENDING) FROM SW TO NE MID
MORNING THRU EARLY AFTN.
PTYPE IS A CHALLENGE. INITIAL DRY AIR MASS/EVAPORATIVE COOLING
SHOULD MAKE SNOW THE MORE DOMINANT PTYPE. HOWEVER...PERUSAL OF MODEL
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW TEMP PROFILE HOVERING AROUND 0C OVER A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT DEPTH...INDICATING A VARIETY OF PTYPES WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ONLY VERY SLIGHT CHANGES TO THE TEMP PROFILE. SO...FCST WILL
REFLECT A WINTRY MIX OF SN/IP/FZRA/RA AT MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH
MAINLY SN IS MORE LIKELY IN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. FOR PCPN
AMOUNTS...EXPECT TOTAL WATER EQUIVALENT PCPN OF ROUGHLY 0.05 TO 0.15
INCHES....GREATEST SCNTRL. SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE UNDER 1 INCH...AND
WHERE FRZA OCCURS...A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS ARE POSSIBLE. AT THIS
POINT...ADVY HEADLINES ARE NOT WARRANTED. IF FOR SOME REASON TRENDS
THIS EVENING POINT TOWARD HEAVIER PCPN REACHING THE AREA...HEADLINES
WILL NEED TO BE RECONSIDERED.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
MAIN FCST CONCERN IN THE LONGER TERM PERIOD WL BE ON POPS/PTYPE
FOR THE THU INTO FRI TIME IN ASSOCIATION WITH LO PRES THAT IS FCST
TO MOVE NE FM THE PLAINS AND THRU THE GREAT LKS. THE EXACT DETAILS
ON THIS FAIRLY COMPLEX SCENARIO...INCLUDING LO INTENSITY AND
TRACK...WL DEPEND ON THE PHASING/INTERACTION BTWN NRN AND SRN BRANCH
SHRTWVS AND THE EVENTUAL INTENSITY OF THE SRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE
THAT IS NOW OVER THE SW CONUS. FORTUNATELY...THE LATEST ROUND OF
EXPLICIT MODEL FCSTS IS BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON
THE FCST DETAILS. HI PRES AND TRANQUIL WX WL RETURN FOR SAT.
THU/THU NGT...THE UPR FLOW ON THU WL FEATURE A NRN BRANCH SHRTWV
DIGGING SE INTO NW ONTARIO WHILE SRN BRANCH SHRTWV THAT IS CURRENTLY
OVER THE SW CONUS WL BE LIFTING NEWD TOWARD THE UPR MIDWEST ON THE
NW FLANK OF UPR RDG OVER THE SE CONSU. ON THU NGT...SOME OF THE
MODELS SHOW MORE PHASING BTWN THESE WAVES...WITH A DEEPER FARTHER W
SFC LO TRACK AS FAR W AS UPR MI. IN GENERAL...RECENT ECMWF RUNS HAVE
FAVORED THE LESS PHASED/WEAKER SRN BRANCH DISTURANCE AND WEAKER SFC
LO SCENARIO...WHILE THE CNDN MODEL AND ESPECIALLY THE GFS RUNS HAVE
SIDED WITH MORE PHASING AND A DEEPER SRN BRANCH SHRTWV/FARTHER W SFC
LO TRACK. ALTHOUGH CHALLENGING A CONSISTENT ECMWF FCST IS RISKY...
THE INTENSITY OF THE DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE SW CONUS WOULD
SEEM TO FAVOR A DEEPER AND FARTHER W SFC LO TRACK THAN SHOWN BY THE
ECMWF RUNS...EVEN IF THERE IS NOT A LOT OF PHASING WITH THE NRN
BRANCH SHRTWV. IN FACT...THE 00Z NAM DOES SUPPORT A 993MB SFC LO
TRACKING ACROSS NW LOWER MI AT 06Z FRI TO THE E OF SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVELY TILTED SRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE EVEN WITHOUT SGNFT PHASING
WITH THE NRN SHRTWV. THE 00Z GFS REMAINS A BIT DEEPER WITH A
990MB SFC LO AT 06Z...BUT ITS LO TRACK IS NOW ONLY A BIT FARTHER W
THAN SHOWN BY THE NAM. GIVEN THIS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND
PREFERENCE FOR A STRONGER SRN BRANCH SHRTWV...WL RELY ON THE 00Z
NAM/GFS FCSTS FOR FCST DETAILS. QUICK LOOK AT THE 00Z ECMWF
SHOWS A TREND IN THIS DIRECTION...INCRSG CONFIDENCE IN THE
FCST. THESE MODELS SHOW SOME GENERALLY LGT PCPN DVLPG ON THU MRNG
WITH LARGER SCALE ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO THE NE OF THE APRCHG SRN
BRANCH SHRTWV/SFC LO. EXCEPT OVER THE FAR NW CWA OVER LK SUP...THIS
PCPN WL BE LIQUID AS H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO BE HIER THAN 0C. BUT
LINGERING NEAR SFC COLD AIR/HI STABILITY SHOWN ON FCST SDNGS WL
SUPPORT GOING FCST OF FREEZING RA OVER MUCH OF THE CWA BEFORE SOME
WARMING ALLOWS TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE 32 AT MOST PLACES AND CHANGES THE
PCPN TO PLAIN RA WITH SLOW INFLUX OF WARMER NEAR SFC AIR. GIVEN THE
MOISTENING SHALLOW STABLE LYR...ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG FOR MOST OF
THE CWA. AS THE DAY WEARS ON AND THE SRN BRANCH SHRTWV APRCHS...THE
ARRIVAL OF MORE VIGOROUS DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC/AXIS OF MID
LVL FGEN THAT WL SUPPORT SHARPENING H85 THERMAL GRADIENT WL SUPPORT
HIER POPS/QPF. OVER THE W...THE FCST THERMAL FIELDS WITH THIS MORE
VIGOROUS UVV INDICATE A MIX WITH SN TOWARD 00Z FRI. DESPITE THE
DIFFERENCES ON THE PHASING BTWN BRANCHES...ALL THE MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SOME ENHANCED UPR DVGC OVER THE CWA ON
THU NGT IN COUPLED UPR JET STRUCTURE...RRQ OF NRN BRANCH JET CORE
NEAR JAMES BAY AND LEFT EXIT OF SRN BRANCH JET STREAK MOVING TOWARD
LOWER MI. THIS SHARPER UPR DVGC SHOULD ENHANCE UVV/DYNAMIC COOLING
AND LEAD TO A CHANGE TO MAINLY SN W-E. ALTHOUGHTHERE ARE SOME SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES EVEN AMONG THE NAM AND GFS...LOOKS LIKE THE W AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF CWA HAVE THE BEST CHC FOR SEEING SOME HEADLINE SN AMOUNTS
GIVEN TRACK OF SHRTWV AND PLACEMENT ON CYC SIDE OF ACCOMPANYING H7 LO
TRACK/HINT OF A TROWAL FEATURE UNDER AXIS OF HIER H7 SPECIFIC
HUMIDITY AOA 4 G/KG. AT THIS POINT...DECIDED TO ISSUE AN SPS TO COVER
THE COMPLEX WINTER WX/MIXED PCPN EXPECTED THIS MRNG AND THEN AGAIN
LATE TNGT THRU THU NGT.
FRI...AS SRN SHRTWV LIFTS TO THE NE AND LINGERING DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC EXITS TO THE NE IN THE MRNG...EXPECT PCPN TO DIMINISH...
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTN WITH APRCH OF SFC HI PRES AND WEAKENING CYC
NW FLOW. BUT PASSING NRN BRANCH SHRTWV/AXIS OF SOME QVECTOR CNVGC WL
MAINTAIN AT LEAST POPS. ANY LINGERING SN SHOWERS WL LIKELY MIX WITH
RA IN THE PRESENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING.
FRI NGT THRU SAT NGT...HI PRES IS FCST TO FOLLOW INTO THE WRN LKS ON
FRI NGT AND END ANY LINGERING PCPN. AS THE RDG AXIS/DRIER AIRMASS
WITH PWAT AOB 0.25 INCH TRACK OVER THE UPR LKS ON SAT...EXPECT
MOSUNNY AND WARMER WX AS H85 TEMPS REBOUND TO ARND 4C. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD RISE WELL INTO THE 50S AWAY FM LK MODERATION. A WAA REGIME WL
TAKE OVER ON SAT NGT AND BRING A RETURN OF AT LEAST SOME MID CLDS
AS THE SFC HI PRES SHIFTS TO THE E AND A STRONG SW WIND DEVELOPS.
RECENT GFS RUNS HAVE GENERATED SOME LGT PCPN AS PWAT REBOUNDS CLOSE
TO 0.75 INCH. BUT SINCE MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A DRY FCST...
WENT NO HIER THAN SCHC POPS.
SUN THRU TUE...A SHRTWV TRACKING THRU CENTRAL CANADA WL DRAG A
COLD FNT THRU THE UPR LKS LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
AIRMASS IN PLACE WL BE WARM ENUF FOR ALL LIQUID PCPN DURING THIS
FROPA...WHICH WL BE FOLLOWED BY A MARITIME POLAR PACIFIC AIRMASS. SO
TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE AOA NORMAL ON SUN THRU TUE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...LIGHT PCPN
WILL PROBABLY AFFECT ALL TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING.
ALONG WITH -SN...THERE MAY BE SOME -RA/-FZRA/PL...THOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS QUITE LOW ON PTYPE. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP...AND LINGER THRU THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH PCPN
SHOULD GENERALLY END BY LATE WED MORNING/WED AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE
OF THE DISTURBANCE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
AT KSAW WED EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 448 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2015
WITH LAKE SUPERIOR SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRES THAT WILL MOVE
FROM NRN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC THRU WED AND A WARM FRONT THAT
WILL REMAIN TO THE S AND SW ACROSS THE PLAINS TO OHIO VALLEY...E TO
NE WINDS WILL PERSIST. TYPICAL FOR E TO NE WINDS...WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...IN PARTICULAR BTWN THE APOSTLE
ISLANDS AND MN NSHORE WHERE FUNNELING/COASTAL CONVERGENCE ENHANCE
THE WINDS. IN THAT AREA...EXPECT NE WINDS OF 20-30KT TONIGHT...WITH
SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KT THRU THE EVENING. E TO NE
WINDS...MOSTLY 10-20KT...WILL THEN CONTINUE ON WED AND ON INTO THU
AS LOW PRES LIFTS NE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE LOW WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO RESULT IN GALES AS THE LOW APPROACHES AND THEN DEPARTS. WINDS
WILL BACK TO THE N THU AND THEN NW 20-30KT THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS THE
LOW SHIFTS TO THE E AND HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. A PERIOD
OF LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE
MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES. S WINDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE
TO AT LEAST 10-20KT ON SUN AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E AND A LOW PRES TROF
MOVES E TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
129 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 448 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW THAT THE CONFLUENT FLOW
THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS SHIFTING E AND NE AS
THE NRN STREAM TROF OVER ERN CANADA IS SLOWLY LIFTING OUT AND SRN
BRANCH RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS DOWNSTREAM OF TROF ALONG THE W COAST IS
GRADUALLY BUILDING NE AND E. SFC HIGH PRES SUPPORTED BY THE
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT RIDGES W-E ACROSS NRN ONTARIO INTO SRN QUEBEC.
ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN SOME MID-LEVEL RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THE
FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY EARLIER TODAY...THE VERY DRY AIR AT THE LOWER
LEVELS EMANATING FROM THE HIGH PRES RIDGE HAS RESULTED IN DRY
WEATHER ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY. IN FACT...THE KEWEENAW AND ERN
UPPER MI HAVE ENJOYED MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY.
TO THE S...WARM FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM KS ACROSS CNTRL
IL INTO NRN OHIO. TO THE W AND SW...A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE IS
TRACKING ENE ACROSS SE SASKATCHEWAN WHILE WEAKER WAVES ARE MOVING
ACROSS WY/CO AND OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS. THESE FEATURES WILL PLAY A
ROLE IN A CHALLENGING FCST HERE TONIGHT/WED.
INITIALLY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL THIS EVENING UNDER A
CONTINUED FEED OF DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR FROM THE E AND NE. SFC DWPTS AS
OF 19Z WERE STILL MOSTLY IN THE 5-10F RANGE ALONG THE MI/WI
BORDER...INDICATING THE DRYNESS THAT IS STILL AT THE SFC...AND
LATEST RAP FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS
HANGING ON DURING THE EVENING. LATER TONIGHT INTO WED...FOCUS SHIFTS
TO THE AFORMENTIONED SHORTWAVES. THE STRONGER NRN WAVE WILL REACH
NRN ONTARIO EARLY WED MORNING WHILE THE WEAKER SRN WAVES WILL TRACK
INTO THE UPPER LAKES. TRACK OF THE STRONGER NRN WAVE INDICATES ITS
MAIN FORCING WILL PASS N OF HERE...AND THAT IS WHAT MODELS SHOW FOR
PROGRESSION OF DEEP LAYER QVECTORS. FARTHER S...THE WEAKER SRN WAVES
WILL BE ABLE TO INTERACT WITH THE SFC-850MB WARM FRONT AND
CONSIDERABLY MORE GENEROUS MOISTURE AS WELL AS ABUNDANT INSTABILITY.
LEAD SUBTLE WAVE IS ALREADY GENERATING AN EXPANDING AREA OF
SHRA/TSRA IN SRN MN/NW IA ON THE MUCAPE GRADIENT PER LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS. THRU WED MORNING...MODELS SHOW 850MB WARM FRONT NEVER
LIFTING ANY FARTHER N THAN SRN WI. BELIEVE THOSE MODEL SOLUTIONS
WHICH SHOW THE MAIN AREA OF PCPN PASSING S OF UPPER MI TONIGHT/WED
MORNING CLOSER TO 850MB WARM FRONT OR EVEN SFC FRONT ARE PROBABLY ON
THE RIGHT TRACK. THIS WOULD BE ESPECIALLY TRUE IF SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION ENDS UP DEVELOPING/EXPANDING NEAR THE WARM FRONT...A
DEFINITE POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL
REMAIN MUCH FARTHER S. WHILE THE SHRA/TSRA MOVING ACROSS SRN MN INTO
SW WI IS A CONCERN...THAT PCPN SHOULD TEND TO PEEL MORE EASTWARD
WITH TIME AS THE SHRA/TSRA SHOULDN`T BREAK TOO FAR AWAY FROM THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT WHICH WILL REMAIN WELL S OF HERE. SO...THE GFS
WHICH CARRIES 1/3RD TO 1/2 INCH OF PCPN INTO SCNTRL UPPER MI
CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS WHICH
ARE MUCH LIGHTER ON PCPN. NONETHELESS...TAIL END OF NRN SHORTWAVE
WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR AN EXTENSION OF PCPN N AND NW FROM HEAVIER
PCPN TO THE S. UTILIZING A CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR POPS...WEIGHTED
TOWARD HIGH RES GUIDANCE...WILL SPREAD A BAND OF CHC POPS ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT/WED MORNING WITH TREND TOWARD LOWER POPS OVER THE
NRN/ERN FCST AREA. WILL INCLUDE LIKELY POPS INTO MENOMINEE COUNTY.
PCPN WILL END (OR DIMINISH TO DZ BEFORE ENDING) FROM SW TO NE MID
MORNING THRU EARLY AFTN.
PTYPE IS A CHALLENGE. INITIAL DRY AIR MASS/EVAPORATIVE COOLING
SHOULD MAKE SNOW THE MORE DOMINANT PTYPE. HOWEVER...PERUSAL OF MODEL
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW TEMP PROFILE HOVERING AROUND 0C OVER A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT DEPTH...INDICATING A VARIETY OF PTYPES WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ONLY VERY SLIGHT CHANGES TO THE TEMP PROFILE. SO...FCST WILL
REFLECT A WINTRY MIX OF SN/IP/FZRA/RA AT MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH
MAINLY SN IS MORE LIKELY IN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. FOR PCPN
AMOUNTS...EXPECT TOTAL WATER EQUIVALENT PCPN OF ROUGHLY 0.05 TO 0.15
INCHES....GREATEST SCNTRL. SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE UNDER 1 INCH...AND
WHERE FRZA OCCURS...A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS ARE POSSIBLE. AT THIS
POINT...ADVY HEADLINES ARE NOT WARRANTED. IF FOR SOME REASON TRENDS
THIS EVENING POINT TOWARD HEAVIER PCPN REACHING THE AREA...HEADLINES
WILL NEED TO BE RECONSIDERED.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2015
...AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN/ICING WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING AND
POSSIBLE HEAVY SNOW THU NIGHT...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO START THE LONG TERM FEATURES
TROUGHING FM CENTRAL CANADA SOUTHWEST ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CONUS. MAIN SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MANITOBA AND STREAMING EASTWARD NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. MAIN JET STREAKS WITHIN THE FLOW PATTERN ARE
ORIENTED FM GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND AND PUSHING ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO. AT THE SFC...MAIN CYCLONE IS VCNTY OF CNTRL PLAINS WITH WARM
FRONT EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...LIFTING NORTHWARD.
WEAKER LEAD SHORTWAVE/INCREASING DIVERGENCE IN RRQ OF GREAT LAKES
JET/WARM AIR ADVECTION COMBINE TO BRING SOME PRECIP IN THE FORM OF
RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
GFS/ECMWF/GEM-NH QUICKER IN BRINGING PRECIP OVER AREA...MORE 06Z-12Z
THURSDAY. NAM IS DELAYED...FAVORING 12Z-18Z ON THURSDAY. EITHER WAY
THINK BEST FOCUS FOR RAIN WILL BE ON NOSE OF VEERING H85 JET MAINLY
IMPACTING SOUTH AND EAST CWA. TSRA THAT COULD BE ONGOING ALONG WARM
FRONT COULD FURTHER DISRUPT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO UPPER GREAT
LAKES. DUE TO THESE REASONS...LIKE THE IDEA OF LESS QPF SINCE LARGER
SCALE FORCING OVER UPR MICHIGAN IS GENERALLY WEAK. SOUNDINGS AHEAD
OF ANY POTENTIAL PRECIP INDICATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO H9 BUT DRY
AIR ABOVE THROUGH H5 MUCH OF WEDNESDAY EVENING. SFC WINDS FM EAST
BTWN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND LOW PRESSURE
LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS SUPPORTS BEST CHANCE OF
DZ/FZDZ GENERATED BY UPSLOPE LIFTING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL
CWA FM MICHIGAMME HIGHLANDS IN BARAGA AND MARQUETTE COUNTY SOUTHWEST
TO MUCH OF IRON AND DICKINSON COUNTIES. EITHER FM THE FZDZ OR
EVENTUALLY ARRIVAL OF LIGHT FZRA...LIGHT ICING IS LIKELY ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS TEMPS WILL STAY AT OR BLO FREEZING MOST OF THE
NIGHT. MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE ON UNTREATED ROADS AND SIDEWALKS BUT
THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME ICING THAT WOULD IMPACT ELEVATED OBJECTS
SUCH AS TREES AND POWERLINES. BEST SHOT OF MOST ICING WILL BE OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS FM BARAGA AND MARQUETTE COUNTY TO IRON AND
DICKINSON COUNTY. DID NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC BTWN DZ/FZDZ AND
RAIN/FZRA. SINCE EVEN IN THE DRIER SCENARIO THERE WOULD BE
MEASURABLE QPF...WENT WITH RAIN/FZRA. WILL KEEP MENTION OF THIS IN
HWO/EHWO...BUT NO HEADLINE ISSUED NOW AS AT THIS POINT SEEMS THAT AT
WORST COULD NEED AN ADVY.
BRIEF LULL POSSIBLE LATER THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON
IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVES...LEAD ONE LIFTING ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO AND
A MUCH STRONGER ONE...EDGING EASTWARD ACROSS CNTRL PLAINS...SET TO
ARRIVE OVER UPR GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT. SOUNDINGS FOR LATER
THURSDAY INDICATE SOME MOISTURE MAY STICK AROUND ON NORTHERN EDGE OF
SFC LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE CNTRL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...BUT SEEMS THAT NET FORCING FOR
ANY PRECIP WILL BE MINIMAL. NORTHERN EDGE OF HIGHER MLCAPE AND
INTERSECTION OF LOW-LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL JET AND H85 THETA-E
AXIS/MAX WARM AIR ADVECTION WOULD KEEP POTENTIAL FOR TSRA STAYING
WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF UPR MICHIGAN...LIKELY OVER LOWER GREAT
LAKES OR OHIO VALLEY DEPENDING ON LOCATION OF EMBEDDED WEAKER
CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN SHORTWAVES IN THE WSW FLOW ALOFT. GENERALLY
QUIET WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL OVER UPPER LAKES THURSDAY AFTN UNTIL
MAIN SHORTWAVE ARRIVES ON THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO
THE AREA MAY CONTINUE TO SPUR ON SOME SHOWERS OR PATCHY RAIN...SO
KEPT CHANCES GOING THROUGH THE PERIOD DESPITE THE MINIMAL FORCING.
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH STRENGTH AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF THURSDAY
NIGHT SHORTWAVE IS THE MAIN ISSUE ON INTO FRIDAY MORNING. OVERALL...
RECENT NAM/GEM-NH RUNS WERE FARTHER WEST WITH UPPER WAVE AND SFC
LOW WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF WAS MUCH FASTER WITH EASTWARD PUSH OF THE
SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT. GFS REPRESENTED A COMPROMISE
SOLUTION. BY FAR...00Z AND 12Z ECMWF ARE DRIEST...INDICATING LESS
THAN 0.25 INCH OF QPF FM 00Z FRIDAY TO 12Z FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...
NAM/GFS/GEM-NH SHOWED QPF AMOUNTS AT LEAST UP TO 1 INCH...SO QUITE
THE DIFFERENCE.
12Z NAM TRENDED MORE LIKE THE GFS IN TERMS OF LOCATION OF SFC LOW FM
00Z FRIDAY TO 12Z FRIDAY. IN TERMS OF QPF...NAM TRENDED AWAY FM
STRIPE OF 1.5 INCH PLUS AMOUNTS IT WAS SHOWING BUT STILL HAS UP TO
1.25 INCHES OVER PARTS OF WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN. IN FACT...IN THE
VCNTY OF KIWD IS HAS TRENDED MUCH WETTER AS 00Z RUN SHOWED LESS THAN
0.10 INCH...BUT 12Z RUN NOW HAS ALMOST 0.75 INCHES. GUESSING THIS IS
DUE TO MORE PHASING OCCURRING BTWN SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE UPPER
LAKES AND THE APPROACHING WAVE DRIVING SOUTHEAST OVER MANITOBA AND
NORTHERN ONTARIO WHICH IN TURN INCREASES RIGHT ENTRANCE JET STREAK
DIVERGENCE AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL FGEN. 12Z GFS SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS RUNS WITH SFC LOW POSITION...BUT NOW FOCUSES QPF MORE OVER
WESTERN CWA. GFS SHOWS NOT ONLY MAIN SHORTWAVE LIFTING OVER UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND WAVE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO...BUT ALSO ANOTHER WAVE
TRYING TO SNEAK IN FM NORTHERN PLAINS. SCENARIO JUST BECOMES MORE
COMPLICATED YET. PTYPE WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP WOULD BE RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW. POSSIBLE FZRA AS WELL AS ADVECTION OF COLDER LOW-
LEVEL AIRMASS UNDERCUTS LINGERING WARM LAYER ALOFT AT H8-H75. SIGNAL
FOCUSING THAT FAR WEST VCNTY OF KIWD COULD SEE HEAVY SNOW THURSDAY
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING OF FRIDAY DUE TO QUICKER CHANGE FM
RAIN TO SNOW AND GREATER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER QPF. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THIS IN THE HWO/EHWO BUT NOT HIT IT UP MUCH HARDER JUST YET
AS UNCERTAINTY REMAINS SINCE THE TYPICALLY BETTER PERFORMING ECMWF
HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY NOT NEAR AS BULLISH WITH THE SYSTEM AS OTHER
MODELS. AND ITS REALLY NOT EVEN CLOSE.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON FRIDAY. LINGERING
AIRMASS IS COOL THOUGH AS LOWERED TEMPS WITH THERMAL TROUGH AT H85
REMAINING OVER THE AREA. SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY EVEN FARTHER
INLAND WITH POSSIBLE INSTABILITY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SINCE THE THERMAL
TROUGH STAYS IN THE VCNTY. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD TO START
THE WEEKEND SO LOOKING FOR DRY AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY. WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST AS RIDGE PASSES SATURDAY AFTN.
MIXING TO H9 WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S OVER MOST CWA. BY
LATE WEEKEND...UPPER PATTERN SHOWS LARGER TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA
AND NORTHWEST CONUS...WITH MORE COMPACT UPPER LOW TRACKING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THAT SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE EVOLVES. PREVIOUS ECMWF SHOWED A WRAPPED UP SFC LOW OVER
THE CNTRL PLAINS...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS NOTHING OF THE SORT.
ESSENTIALLY...SEE NO REASON TO STRAY FM CONSENSUS BEYOND THE LATE
WEEK SYSTEM GIVEN THE BIGGER UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...LIGHT PCPN
WILL PROBABLY AFFECT ALL TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING.
ALONG WITH -SN...THERE MAY BE SOME -RA/-FZRA/PL...THOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS QUITE LOW ON PTYPE. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP...AND LINGER THRU THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH PCPN
SHOULD GENERALLY END BY LATE WED MORNING/WED AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE
OF THE DISTURBANCE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
AT KSAW WED EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 448 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2015
WITH LAKE SUPERIOR SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRES THAT WILL MOVE
FROM NRN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC THRU WED AND A WARM FRONT THAT
WILL REMAIN TO THE S AND SW ACROSS THE PLAINS TO OHIO VALLEY...E TO
NE WINDS WILL PERSIST. TYPICAL FOR E TO NE WINDS...WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...IN PARTICULAR BTWN THE APOSTLE
ISLANDS AND MN NSHORE WHERE FUNNELING/COASTAL CONVERGENCE ENHANCE
THE WINDS. IN THAT AREA...EXPECT NE WINDS OF 20-30KT TONIGHT...WITH
SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KT THRU THE EVENING. E TO NE
WINDS...MOSTLY 10-20KT...WILL THEN CONTINUE ON WED AND ON INTO THU
AS LOW PRES LIFTS NE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE LOW WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO RESULT IN GALES AS THE LOW APPROACHES AND THEN DEPARTS. WINDS
WILL BACK TO THE N THU AND THEN NW 20-30KT THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS THE
LOW SHIFTS TO THE E AND HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. A PERIOD
OF LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE
MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES. S WINDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE
TO AT LEAST 10-20KT ON SUN AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E AND A LOW PRES TROF
MOVES E TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
911 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 911 PM CDT CDT THU APR 9 2015
BUSY NIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FIRST CONCERN IS ONGOING SNOW
ADVISORY IN NW WI. THERE IS SOME BANDING OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE
ADVISORY AREA AS INDICATED ON RADAR. THE LATEST REPORTS ARE OF A
QUICK 1-2 INCHES WITH THE SNOW SO FAR. THE TIMING STILL LOOKS GOOD
WITH THE ENDING OF THE SNOW AT HYR BY 04-05Z AND AFTER 06Z POINTS
FURTHER EAST. THERE IS STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FLOWING
INTO THE REGION EVEN WITH THE LARGE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREA IN
SOUTHERN WI/NRN IL.
THE NEXT CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS THE DENSE FOG FROM THE TWIN PORTS
TO SILVER BAY. E-NE WIND IS PUSHING A MOIST FLOW OFF THE LAKE
CAUSING DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP QUICKLY. THE HRRR INDICATES WINDS
WILL PICK UP AND SWITCH BY 12Z FRIDAY. WILL POST A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE TWIN PORTS TO SILVER BAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.
THE LAST CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS A SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA. CANADIAN RADAR INDICATES LIGHT R-/S- FALLING
FROM THE SHORTWAVE. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN THROUGH
CENTRAL MN OVERNIGHT AND MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR THE AREA
FROM BRD TO HYR WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY BRINGING NICE WEATHER FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
YET ANOTHER VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH REGARD TO PRECIPITATION
TYPE...WITH SLEET...SNOW...AND RAIN OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TODAY
AMOUNTED TO A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH. WINTRY PRECIP AMOUNTS
HAVE BEEN GENERALLY LIGHT WITH THE WINTRY PRECIP MOSTLY MELTING AT
THE SURFACE...BUT THERE ARE LIKELY A FEW SLICK SPOTS OUT THERE WITH
TEMPS IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN HOVERING AROUND OR JUST ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK. QUICK BURST OF SNOW EXPECTED IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
THIS EVENING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW IN NORTH-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA LATE TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF TOWARDS FRIDAY WITH
MILD TEMPS AND CLEARING SKIES LATE.
REST OF TODAY...CLEARING IN NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON
AS LIGHT RAIN/SNOW/SLEET MOVES ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD DOWN TO THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR AND EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. PRECIP
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AS THE
AFTERNOON GOES ON...CHANGING FROM RAIN TO A WINTRY MIX. TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM NEAR-FREEZING IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TO IN THE MID 50S
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
TONIGHT...INTENSE SNOWFALL POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHILE A
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX IN NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT WHERE THEY HAVE CLEARED THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND OVERCAST SKIES IN NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...LIGHT RAIN/WINTRY MIX WILL TRANSITION OVER
TO SNOW THIS EVENING. LARGE SCALE LIFT GENERALLY ASSOCIATED WITH JET
COUPLING ALOFT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE RAIN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW QUICKLY AS PRECIPITATION INTENSIFIES THIS EVENING. THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT CONCERN THAT A DRY SLOT ALOFT COULD END PRECIPITATION
FAIRLY QUICKLY...BUT DEPENDING ON WHEN THIS DRY AIR ARRIVES COULD BE
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A DUSTING AND WARNING-LEVEL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
COLLABORATED WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON A MIDDLE GROUND...NOTING
THAT SOME OF THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING PRECIPITATION
ENDING MUCH EARLIER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...THIS
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE HAS NOT PERFORMED VERY WELL ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY ANYWAY. ON THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM IS THE SREF WHICH HAS
VERY HIGH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT BELIEVE IT IS TOO AGGRESSIVE DUE TO
HIGH SNOW RATIOS. DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR FAST ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TONIGHT...BUT ADMIT
THAT THIS ADVISORY HAS A HIGHER-THAN-USUAL BUST POTENTIAL. GENERALLY
2-4 INCHES EXPECTED...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN IRON AND PRICE COUNTY.
FRIDAY...GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. MILD DESPITE A
COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE TODAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 MPH.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH GENERALLY
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. STRONG WAA WILL THEN DEVELOP IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY
NIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED A MENTION OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY NIGHT...AS WARM AND MORE HUMID AIR LIFTS
QUICKLY NORTHWARD ON A 40 TO 50 KNOT LLJ. SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE
A WET DAY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...STRONG
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND A STRONG
COLD FRONT. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WOULD SUPPORT SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS WELL. THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY
PUSH OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN
AND SNOW MIX LATER IN THE NIGHT IN OUR NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA
COUNTIES. MONDAY AND TUESDAY GENERALLY LOOK DRY AT THIS POINT...WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. ANOTHER MAJOR SYSTEM WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS
THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN. COULD ALSO BE SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S AND 60S...WITH THE WARMEST
DAY LOOKING TO BE ON TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015
VFR CONDITIONS AT INL/HIB AND BRD WITH MVFR/IFR CONDTIONS AT DLH
AND HYR. THE VFR CIGS WILL DECREASE TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTRBANCE MOVES THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN. THESE
CONDTIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID-MORNING FRIDAY AS HIGH
RPESSURE BUILDS IN.
FOR DLH/HYR...MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW
EXPECTED AT HYR THROUGH 06Z. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE
MORNING FRIDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 32 49 30 59 / 10 10 0 10
INL 30 48 27 63 / 20 10 0 0
BRD 31 52 29 64 / 20 30 0 10
HYR 30 49 28 59 / 80 20 10 0
ASX 31 48 29 59 / 70 10 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ020-037.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ003-004-008-
009.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...STEWART
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...STEWART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
326 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
LAST OF THE PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY EARLY THIS MORNING WAS
MOVING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHILE ANOTHER WAS EXITING NW
WI JUST BEFORE 08Z. THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS COMING TO AN
END...BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW REMAINS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
AREA. CALLS TO AREA LAW ENFORCEMENT REVEALED NO SLIPPERY ROADS DUE
TO THE FREEZING RAIN. THE LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION WAS ALL ELEVATED. 2
INCHES OF SNOW WAS REPORTED AT INL WITH THE 06Z OB. LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED BEFORE 12Z.
MODELS ARE INDICATING ONE LAST PIECE OF ENERGY WILL CROSS NORTHERN
MN THIS MORNING AND HAVE POPS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF LAKE SUPERIOR
TO REFLECT THIS TREND. THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN...SNOW OR SLEET...ESPECIALLY OVER THE TIP OF THE
ARROWHEAD. HAVE A LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION MENTIONED. ELSEWHERE...THE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CHARGE. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END BY 15Z.
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SFC RIDGING
COVERING A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS THE NAM
WHICH IS TRYING TO GENERATE SOME PCPN UP THE NORTH SHORE. GFS IS TOO
FAST AND TOO FAR NORTH WITH ITS QPF PRIOR TO 06Z. AS A
COMPROMISE...HAVE SOME SMALL POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS. AFTER
06Z...MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME A BIT LARGER WITH RESPECT TO NEXT
ROUND OF PCPN SPREADING NORTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TRIED TO ALIGN POPS/QPF/WEATHER TO
BETTER REFLECT MODEL SOLUTIONS AND MATCH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. THERE
WILL BE MORE MIXED PCPN AS WAA MOVES OVER THE TOP OF COLD AIR IN THE
LOWEST LEVELS.
ON THURSDAY...A SFC LOW WILL MOVE FROM SW IA TO SE WI.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WITH SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORT WAVE
ENERGY WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
NO PCPN WILL OCCUR TO THE WEST OF A LINE FROM LONGVILLE TO HIBBING
TO NEAR ELY. HAVE REMOVED POPS AS A RESULT. EXPECT A RAIN/SNOW/SLEET
MIX IN THE MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SLOWLY EXITING TO THE ESE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING WITH A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN...SNOW...SLEET AND
POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH IT THURSDAY EVENING AND A
CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET OVER PORTIONS OF NW WI DURING THIS TIME...WITH
LIGHT ICING AS WELL. TRAVEL CONDITIONS COULD DETERIORATE RAPIDLY. AS
THE MAIN FORCING FROM THIS SYSTEM MOVES EWD...THE COLD AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL POUR IN FROM THE NW AND TRIGGER ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR WEAK CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING AND RAIN SHOWERS IN
THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL PRECIP AMTS WILL BE LIGHT. A LARGE WARM
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THIS WEEKEND AND KEEP
CONDITIONS QUIET THROUGH SUN MORNING. THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES IN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT RAIN CHANCES INTO EARLY MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM QUICKLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S...AND INTO THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S BY SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S ARE
EXPECTED FRI AND SAT MORNING...WITH 30S AND 40S LATER IN THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MILD INTO THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
PRECIPITATION RANGED FROM LIGHT RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
WISCONSIN...TO SNOW ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. BETWEEN THESE
TWO AREAS WAS SLEET...SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN. IFR CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR IN THE HEAVIER SNOW OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. THE PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH FROM THE
WEST AND SOUTH LATER TONIGHT.
A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
PRECIP EXITS THE AREA AND A MIX OF LOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LATEST NAM SUGGEST CEILINGS WILL
RISE THROUGH THE DAY AND BECOME SCATTERED IN SPOTS. HOWEVER...THE
LATEST RAP KEEPS THE CLOUDS AROUND LONGER. WE SIDED WITH THE RAP.
SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME FOG AND LOWER CEILINGS MOVING BACK
IN WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND WE TRENDED THAT WAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 39 31 41 31 / 10 50 60 30
INL 45 29 49 28 / 0 30 0 30
BRD 48 35 48 27 / 0 60 40 20
HYR 48 35 42 30 / 10 60 80 60
ASX 41 32 38 30 / 20 50 80 70
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ121-
141>148.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1222 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2015
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS
REGARDING COVERAGE AND PRECIP TYPE. SPOTTER AND LAW ENFORCEMENT
REPORT FREEZING RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF AITKIN AND FAR SOUTHERN
ITASCA COUNTIES WITH SLEET AND SNOW FURTHER NORTH. WE THOUGHT
ABOUT ISSUING AN ADVISORY FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN THE AREA GETTING
THE FREEZING RAIN...BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. WE WILL WATCH CLOSELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2015
CLOUDY TODAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE HEAD OF LAKE SUPERIOR
DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE. TONIGHT A COMPLEX WINTRY
MIX WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING A MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY RESULT IN A MESSY
WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE FOR THE NORTHLAND. A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT
WILL BE QUICK TO MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE THE PRIMARY FEATURE AFFECTING OUR WEATHER IN
THE SHORT TERM IS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN SASASK/MANITOBA. ACROSS THE CONUS A DEEPENING TROUGH OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND A NEAR-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD IS RESULTING IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND DESERT SOUTHWEST EAST TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF ONTARIO AND A SFC LOW IN EASTERN KANSAS
IS RESULTING IN EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC.
REST OF TODAY...GENERALLY CLOUDY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL. IN
THE TWIN PORTS AND NEARBY COASTAL AREAS WINDS ARE BREEZY /GUSTING TO
NEAR 30 KTS/ DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...WHICH
IS ALSO CAUSING TEMPS TO BE COOLER THAN SURROUNDING AREAS. ELSEWHERE
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40...WARMEST
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE CLOUDS WERE MORE SCATTERED
ALLOWING SUNSHINE THROUGH. CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY VERY DRY...AND
IN AREAS WHERE SUNSHINE HAS BEEN ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH THE CLOUDS
IT IS UNUSUALLY DRY...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY 20 TO 30 PERCENT. THIS
DRY AIRMASS WILL DELAY THE INITIAL ONSET ON PRECIP...AND WHILE SOME
SPORADIC LIGHT RAIN/SLEET HAS BEEN REPORTED ACROSS CASS/CROW
WING/AITKIN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...IT HAS BEEN DRY FOR THE MOST
PART DUE TO T/TD SPREADS OF 15 TO 30 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.
TONIGHT...A WINTRY MIX WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH A QUICK-MOVING MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT LOW/MID
LEVELS /EG. 925MB TO 700MB/ WILL RESULT IN WARM AIR ADVECTION
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...BRINGING A WARM LAYER ALOFT INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN AND MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
2. THIS COMBINATION OF TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL PROVIDE AMPLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE REGION.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION TYPE GOES...SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING TOWARDS WEAKER WARM AIR ADVECTION...MEANING PRECIP WOULD BE
MORE SNOW THAN FREEZING RAIN/SLEET. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE PRECIP WILL BE MORE RAIN/SLEET
THAN SNOW...BUT GIVEN MODEL TRENDS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THESE
LOCATIONS TOO WERE MAINLY SNOW. AS FAR AS SNOWFALL TOTALS GO...ONE
TO THREE INCHES IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA /NORTH OF HWY 2/...WITH LESS
THAN AN INCH ALONG HWY 2 AND LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION TO THE SOUTH
DUE TO RAIN MIXING IN AT TIMES.
DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME MAINLY
BECAUSE OF THE LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS. WHERE PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY
SNOW /MOST OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA/ SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
GENERALLY LESS THAN THREE INCHES...AND WHERE A MIX IS EXPECTED IT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO LAST VERY LONG. IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN SFC TEMPS
WILL BE NEAR TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING...LIMITING ICE/SNOW ACCUMULATION
ON ROADWAYS. HAVE DECIDED INSTEAD TO ISSUE AN SPS TO GIVE A HEADS UP
FOR A SLICK COMMUTE.
WEDNESDAY...MID-LEVEL DRYING BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO A QUICK
END OF PRECIP...POSSIBLY AS DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT LOW
CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY. A WEAK
MID-LEVEL RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST MAY LEAD TO SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS
WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE LAKE...BUT MUCH LESS WINDY THAN TODAY.
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S INLAND...AND MID TO UPPER 30S NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2015
THE MESSY SPRING PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK...AS
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN EJECTS INTO THE
PLAINS AND THEN UPPER MIDWEST FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE FIRST BATCH OF WAA INDUCED PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY PRECIPITATION FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM INTO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS
WEEK...WE WILL LIKELY SEE MYRIAD OF WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING
THE DIFFERENT PHASES OF THE EVOLUTION OF THIS MORE MAJOR SYSTEM.
STILL NOT RULING OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH
THE SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND ESPECIALLY IN THE AREA
OF DEFORMATION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. IT DOES
LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND
SNOW WITH MOST PLACES SEEING A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE
COLD CORE MOVES ACROSS THE CWA. SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS BY
AFTERNOON FRIDAY. SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A GENERALLY DRY
DAY...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVING BACK IN ON SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE DEEP MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH 50S AND 60S BY THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
PRECIPITATION RANGED FROM LIGHT RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
WISCONSIN...TO SNOW ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. BETWEEN THESE
TWO AREAS WAS SLEET...SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN. IFR CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR IN THE HEAVIER SNOW OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. THE PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH FROM THE
WEST AND SOUTH LATER TONIGHT.
A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
PRECIP EXITS THE AREA AND A MIX OF LOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LATEST NAM SUGGEST CEILINGS WILL
RISE THROUGH THE DAY AND BECOME SCATTERED IN SPOTS. HOWEVER...THE
LATEST RAP KEEPS THE CLOUDS AROUND LONGER. WE SIDED WITH THE RAP.
SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME FOG AND LOWER CEILINGS MOVING BACK
IN WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND WE TRENDED THAT WAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 32 41 30 51 / 80 70 50 20
INL 31 49 27 49 / 60 40 20 20
BRD 31 47 29 53 / 80 60 40 20
HYR 33 45 30 50 / 80 80 70 30
ASX 32 41 30 45 / 80 70 60 40
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ121-
141>148.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1004 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2015
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1004 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
Convection continuing to role east across the CWA this morning along
the heels of an 850-hPa low-level jet. Bulk of severe now centered
well east of the KC metro and as a result...have trimmed the western
two tiers of counties from Severe Thunderstorm Watch 31.
Additionally...plenty of obs still reporting widespread fog across
the region and have extended to inherited dense fog advisory through
11 AM.
Once this morning/s activity exits to the east...eyes will quickly be
drawn upstream to renewed convective development across the central
Plains. Latest HRRR has convection firing over south-central KS by
20z in the form of loosely organized single cells. After
developing...all models (both high-resolution convection allowing and
standard operational) show convection quickly lifting northeast into
the CWA by late afternoon. Right now the biggest concerns will be for
locations south of Interstate 70 as these areas will likely have the
best potential of seeing recovery following the passage of the warm
front later this morning/early afternoon. With plenty of dynamics
aloft...expect activity to quickly become severe as it moves into our
area with large hail...damaging winds...and isolated tornadoes all
possible. Convection later today/evening may come in a few waves as
additional shortwave energy embedded with strong southwest flow aloft
leads to renewed development along/near the cold front draped across
south-central Kansas. In any event...will continue to monitor and
update as needed.
UPDATE Issued at 538 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
Warm air wing of convection has developed more early this morning
across eastern Kansas with storms quickly approaching the Missouri
border at this time. Storms north of I-70 are elevated in nature and
have stayed below severe warning limits, though large hail may be
possible if the shear above the boundary layer inversion can organize
the storms somewhat this morning. Storms farther south, generally
south of a Paola Kansas to Warrensburg Missouri, Marshall and
Moberly line, will have more opportunity to develop severe weather
this morning. These storms will be in the vicinity of the boundary
left over from last night which might help these storms get a better
connection to deep layer shear and instability. Continue to think that
the activity north of the Missouri River will keep the inverted
surface trough anchored along our southeast border through the
morning. For this reason, have added areas of fog and drizzle this
morning to the western half of the forecast area.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 403 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
Looks like more storms are in store for eastern Kansas and Missouri
today. Overnight activity took awhile Tuesday evening to get going,
but once the the cap was broken there where several rather strong
storms, which could have been much stronger if there had been upper
level dynamics to support the storms. The difference today is that a
significant trough is moving into the Plains States, which will
provide any storms this afternoon or this evening with plenty of
upper level support for strong robust severe thunderstorms. But,
first to what will happen this morning.
Today - This Morning: Early this morning an inverted surface trough
remains anchored from southeast Kansas northeast through northeast
Missouri, with the resulting boundary residing within the trough
along our southeast county warning area border. A verity of model
solutions have now coalesced on keeping this inverted surface trough
in place through the morning and, possibly, through the first part
of the afternoon. Additionally...it`s noted that storms are bubbling
back up across east central Kansas in the elevated environment north
of the trough thanks to isentropic assent on the 40 knot southwest
nocturnal jet. Thoughts are that these early morning storms will
likely not be severe due to their elevated nature, though marginally
large hail can not be ruled out. More general thinking is that this
area of storms will advect northeast into northern Missouri, staying
on the cool side of the inverted trough. As a result, have added
patchy fog into the northwest half few the CWA for this morning, and
nudged afternoon highs near the Iowa border down a degree or two;
but did up POPs for the morning, though they may need updating based
on radar trends as the forecast becomes valid later this morning.
Also, these morning storms could limit our instability early in the
day, delaying the potential onset time for afternoon/evening
activity. So, while another round of activity might wait to fire up
in the late afternoon and evening hours, it is still expected to
occur.
Today - This Afternoon and Tonight: Expect the inverted trough to
remain where it is till early afternoon when sufficient pressure
falls begin across the Plains in response to the trough over the
Great Basin shifting east, lifting the trough north as a warm front
this afternoon. As this occurs, the environment that was rather well
capped could rapidly lose that cap with any little shortwave
undulation present in the flow aloft, resulting in fast development
of strong and severe thunderstorms. Currently, expect storms to
develop along the southern end of the inverted trough as it starts
moving north this afternoon --after 20Z-- in southeast Kansas. MUCAPE
values of 4000+ J/KG and 0-6KM shear of possibly 40 to 50 knots would
make supercell thunderstorms possible from the first initial storms.
Expect this activity to spread northeast through west central
Missouri into northern Missouri during the late afternoon and evening
hours Wednesday, with storms likely crossing into our area between 5
and 7 PM this evening. Uncertain as to how far into the overnight
hours the strong and severe convection will last, but currently there
looks to be a bit of a dry slot that works in across northwest
Missouri as associated surface low lifts from Kansas into Iowa. this
should bring the threat for severe storms to an end by midnight,
though lingering storms could persist into Thursday. Thoughts persist
that all types of severe weather may accompany our storms today, with
large hail --larger than 2 inches-- strong damaging winds and
isolated tornadoes possible.
Thursday: The upper level trough responsible for our recent storms
will be swinging past us to the north. The surface low moving into
Iowa that morning will drag a Pacific cold front through the region
that day. The cool air behind the front will lag far enough back to
not be very notable till Friday. However, this front might be able to
generate some showers and or isolated thunderstorms as it moves
through, though no severe weather.
Friday and through the Weekend: Cooler conditions will prevail
Friday as a cool, but dry, air mass wafts through Kansas and
Missouri. Temperatures will warm back into the 70s for the weekend.
Saturday looks nice and dry, but by Saturday night through Sunday
and into Monday a significant rain event may develop.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 721 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
Fog and thunderstorms greeted the terminals along the Kansas-Missouri
border this morning. Location of a front across central Missouri
indicates that the fog may linger well into the morning with easterly
winds through the morning. Thunderstorm activity currently at the
terminals early this morning will move east and is expected to not
redevelop until this afternoon. Expect the front to lift north this
afternoon allowing winds to veer to the south late this afternoon and
this evening and becoming gusty as the pressure gradient tightens.
Additionally, more storms are expect late this afternoon into this
evening which might affect the terminals.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 11 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ025-057-
102>105.
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 11 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ020-021-
028>031-037>040-043>046.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...32
UPDATE...Cutter
DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
315 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE IN REGARDS TO CONVECTION TONIGHT
AND ALSO SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.
SOME STORMS DID OCCUR WITH SMALL HAIL FROM NORTH OF LINCOLN TOWARD
OMAHA EARLY THIS MORNING. STORMS REALLY DID NOT GET GOING STRONG TO
SEVERE UNTIL THEY WERE IN THE DMX FORECAST AREA. 500 MB CHART FROM
12Z SHOWED MAIN TROUGH STILL WELL OFF TO THE WEST. HEIGHT FALLS UP
TO AROUND 100 METERS WERE BACK OVER UTAH AT 12Z...BUT AS OF EARLY
AFTERNOON HAD PUSHED INTO PARTS OF WYOMING AND COLORADO.
GENERALLY EXPECT PCPN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT...WITH
HEAVIEST PCPN AFTER ABOUT 11 PM. RECENT HRRR MODEL RUNS SUGGEST SOME
STRONG STORMS MAY FORM EARLY EVENING NEAR THE MISSOURI BORDER AREA.
OTHERWISE...MODELS TRENDS SHOWED LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD INCREASE
WITH UP TO 50 KNOTS AT 850 MB BY LATE EVENING. THIS SHOULD HELP
BRING AN INCREASE IN TSTMS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA BY MIDNIGHT OR
SO. 12Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWED UP TO AROUND 2000 J/KG OR
MORE OF ELEVATED CAPE AVAILABLE WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR ADEQUATE
FOR ROTATING ELEVATED STORMS. THESE SHOULD BRING A RISK OF HAIL
MAINLY FROM 05Z TO 10Z...AND A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. THERE
COULD ALSO BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH
HEAVIEST RAIN AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA NEAR DEFORMATION ZONE. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AS SURFACE
LOW TRACKS EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS IOWA DURING THE DAY AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN OUR AREA INCREASES. SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH OR MORE SHOULD BE COMMON. DROPPED
FORECAST HIGHS JUST A BIT...WITH MOSTLY 50S EXPECTED THURSDAY.
PCPN WILL END BY THURSDAY EVENING WITH CLOUDS DECREASING THURSDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT...
MOSTLY TO OUR WEST...SO NO PCPN IS EXPECTED LOCALLY FRIDAY NIGHT.
WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE TSTMS FOR MAINLY OUR WESTERN ZONES
SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015
WILL NEED TO INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHEST CHANCES AND HEAVIEST AMOUNTS
LIKELY AS SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S THIS PERIOD...BUT
SOME UPPER 60S POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. LOWS GENERALLY 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS ERN NEB
THIS AFTN...AND SEE LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD. OTHER ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH IS
POSSIBLE -TSRA ACTIVITY AT KOMA/KLNK BEGINNING LATER THIS EVENING
THEN THRU EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG A FRONTAL BNDRY OVER ERN KS...THE GRADUALLY LIFT INTO ERN
NEB DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE -TSRA THOUGH MAY BE ISOLATED IN
NATURE SO OPTED TO JUST GO WITH PROB30 GROUPS FOR NOW.
ALSO...CANNOT DISCOUNT THAT A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE NEAR SEVERE
HAIL THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT RUSHES IN THEN LATE THURSDAY MORNING
WITH WIND SHIFT TO THE NW AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
103 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAD A CLOSED LOW OVER NRN
CALIFORNIA WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SWD INTO SO
CALIFORNIA. SWLY FLOW ALOFT EXTENDED FROM THE SWRN CONUS NEWD INTO
THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES. WV IMAGERY TONIGHT HAS THE BULK OF
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS MEXICO AND
TEXAS. FURTHER NORTH...MAINLY DRY MID AND UPPER LEVELS WERE
NOTED...HOWEVER A SMALL DISTURBANCE...HAS SPREAD MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA TONIGHT...WITH AN OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING STRIKE NOTED. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND EASTERLY WINDS...HAS LED TO ANOTHER NIGHT
OF LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND DRIZZLE. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDED FROM AROUND COLORADO SPRINGS...SEWD TO THE KS/OK
BORDER. NORTH OF THE FRONT...EASTERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WERE PRESENT ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. AS OF 3 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 39 AT
VALENTINE AND AINSWORTH TO 43 AT IMPERIAL AND OGALLALA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT TWO PERIODS IS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND PRECIPITATION TYPES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
FOR TODAY...EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR LOW CLOUDS FOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE IN THE
PANHANDLE ZONES AND ACROSS FAR SWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...PER HRRR AND NAM12 H85 AND H85-H90 RH FIELDS. WITH
THIS IN MIND...FILTERED SUN WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S.
ELSEWHERE...HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES EAST INTO WESTERN
WYOMING...NRN UT AND NWRN COLORADO ELEVATED AND SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. THE
LATEST NAM12 IS INDICATIVE OF NEGATIVE LI`S ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
FROM 21Z THROUGH 03Z AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWRN NEBRASKA WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY FROM 00Z THROUGH 06Z THIS EVENING. DID GO
AHEAD AND INTRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST IN THE FAR WEST
AND SWRN CWA FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN LIGHT OF THE
NEGATIVE LI/S. AS FOR PCPN CHANCES...THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. THESE AREAS ARE IN
THE MOST FAVORABLE AREAS FOR ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPG
TROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN IN THE WRAP AROUND OVERNIGHT. AS FOR
PRECIPITATION TYPE OVERNIGHT...DECIDED TO KEEP THE BULK OF PCPN AS
ALL RAIN AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE ONLY A 1 TO 2 HOUR WINDOW
FOR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...AND THIS IS MAINLY THURSDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN CWA. DECIDED TO WORD THE
FCST AS RAIN OR SNOW...AS LOWS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP INTO 33
TO 35 DEGREE RANGE IN THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. AS FOR SNOW
ACCUMS...DECIDED TO KEEP THESE AT A MINIMUM AS IT IS EXPECTED TO
MIX WITH RAIN...AND WARM GROUND CONDS SHOULD LIMIT ANY ACCUMS IF
THEY DO OCCUR.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WILL WORK EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS...BUT BEGIN TO WANE IN
THE AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM RELATIVE UPGLIDE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST. IN ADDITION...LARGE SCALE LIFT
DECREASES AS THE TROUGH AXIS WORKS INTO EASTERN IOWA BY MID
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE LIGHT
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL ONLY ACCUMULATE A
FEW ADDITIONAL TENTHS AT MOST. WHAT CONTINUES TO BE THE GREATEST
ENIGMA WITH THIS SYSTEM IS WHEN AND IF A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WERE
TO OCCUR. ENOUGH MID AND UPPER LEVEL COOLING WILL HELP WITH THE
CHANGE OVER...ESPECIALLY SINCE H85-H9 TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW 0C
AFTER 12Z ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST THURSDAY MORNING. WOULD EXPECT THAT
THE FROZEN HYDROMETEOR WOULD MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE...BUT SFC T/S
ARE SHOWN LARGELY TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE 0C. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT A CHANGE OVER WILL OCCUR...AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY...BUT THEN
QUICKLY CHANGE BACK TO ALL RAIN AS THE DIURNAL HEATING TAKES
CONTROL. WHERE THERE IS ENHANCEMENT OF QPF FALLING AS SNOW...SOME
ACCUMULATION MAY OCCUR FOR AN HOUR OR TWO PERIOD. HOWEVER WITH THE
RECENT WARM SPELL GROUND TEMPERATURES WOULD SUPPORT MELTING...THUS
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE INSIGNIFICANT...A COUPLE TENTHS AT MOST.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH MORNING LOWS BELOW 0C FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FRIDAY
MORNING.
RETURN FLOW AND TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGING WILL PROMOTE A QUICK
WARM-UP ON FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S. THE RETURN
FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
AND WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA. A THETA-E GRADIENT NOSES INTO THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY SATURDAY. ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ALONG
THE GRADIENT...WITH LI/S APPROACHING -5C BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A
FEW ELEVATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY...A SIMILAR SETUP IS IN PLACE HOWEVER THE MODELS SHOW A COLD
FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS THE CWA EARLY AFTERNOON. MODEL CONSISTENCY
IS NOT TOO STRONG AT THIS POINT...BUT SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR A
MENTION OF THUNDERS ONCE AGAIN ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. WILL NEED TO WATCH AS PRE-FRONTAL CONDITIONS WOULD HAVE
SLIGHTLY MORE ENERGY TO WORK WITH.
THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THE PROGRESSION OF A SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW...WHICH MAY BRING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF QPF TO THE REGION. THE INIT GAVE US SLIGHT
CHANCES...WHICH IS REASONABLE GIVEN A LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN THE
LONG RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. CEILINGS MAY
TEMPORARILY LIFT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT LOWER ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVE INTO THE AREA...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING. THE
SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A STEADY RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH WET SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
ENDING BY NOON TIME THURSDAY WITH OVERALL CONDITIONS IMPROVING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...TAYLOR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
645 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAD A CLOSED LOW OVER NRN
CALIFORNIA WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SWD INTO SO
CALIFORNIA. SWLY FLOW ALOFT EXTENDED FROM THE SWRN CONUS NEWD INTO
THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES. WV IMAGERY TONIGHT HAS THE BULK OF
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS MEXICO AND
TEXAS. FURTHER NORTH...MAINLY DRY MID AND UPPER LEVELS WERE
NOTED...HOWEVER A SMALL DISTURBANCE...HAS SPREAD MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA TONIGHT...WITH AN OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING STRIKE NOTED. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND EASTERLY WINDS...HAS LED TO ANOTHER NIGHT
OF LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND DRIZZLE. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDED FROM AROUND COLORADO SPRINGS...SEWD TO THE KS/OK
BORDER. NORTH OF THE FRONT...EASTERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WERE PRESENT ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. AS OF 3 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 39 AT
VALENTINE AND AINSWORTH TO 43 AT IMPERIAL AND OGALLALA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT TWO PERIODS IS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND PRECIPITATION TYPES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
FOR TODAY...EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR LOW CLOUDS FOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE IN THE
PANHANDLE ZONES AND ACROSS FAR SWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...PER HRRR AND NAM12 H85 AND H85-H90 RH FIELDS. WITH
THIS IN MIND...FILTERED SUN WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S.
ELSEWHERE...HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES EAST INTO WESTERN
WYOMING...NRN UT AND NWRN COLORADO ELEVATED AND SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. THE
LATEST NAM12 IS INDICATIVE OF NEGATIVE LI`S ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
FROM 21Z THROUGH 03Z AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWRN NEBRASKA WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY FROM 00Z THROUGH 06Z THIS EVENING. DID GO
AHEAD AND INTRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST IN THE FAR WEST
AND SWRN CWA FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN LIGHT OF THE
NEGATIVE LI/S. AS FOR PCPN CHANCES...THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. THESE AREAS ARE IN
THE MOST FAVORABLE AREAS FOR ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPG
TROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN IN THE WRAP AROUND OVERNIGHT. AS FOR
PRECIPITATION TYPE OVERNIGHT...DECIDED TO KEEP THE BULK OF PCPN AS
ALL RAIN AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE ONLY A 1 TO 2 HOUR WINDOW
FOR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...AND THIS IS MAINLY THURSDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN CWA. DECIDED TO WORD THE
FCST AS RAIN OR SNOW...AS LOWS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP INTO 33
TO 35 DEGREE RANGE IN THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. AS FOR SNOW
ACCUMS...DECIDED TO KEEP THESE AT A MINIMUM AS IT IS EXPECTED TO
MIX WITH RAIN...AND WARM GROUND CONDS SHOULD LIMIT ANY ACCUMS IF
THEY DO OCCUR.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WILL WORK EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS...BUT BEGIN TO WANE IN
THE AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM RELATIVE UPGLIDE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST. IN ADDITION...LARGE SCALE LIFT
DECREASES AS THE TROUGH AXIS WORKS INTO EASTERN IOWA BY MID
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE LIGHT
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL ONLY ACCUMULATE A
FEW ADDITIONAL TENTHS AT MOST. WHAT CONTINUES TO BE THE GREATEST
ENIGMA WITH THIS SYSTEM IS WHEN AND IF A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WERE
TO OCCUR. ENOUGH MID AND UPPER LEVEL COOLING WILL HELP WITH THE
CHANGE OVER...ESPECIALLY SINCE H85-H9 TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW 0C
AFTER 12Z ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST THURSDAY MORNING. WOULD EXPECT THAT
THE FROZEN HYDROMETEOR WOULD MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE...BUT SFC T/S
ARE SHOWN LARGELY TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE 0C. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT A CHANGE OVER WILL OCCUR...AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY...BUT THEN
QUICKLY CHANGE BACK TO ALL RAIN AS THE DIURNAL HEATING TAKES
CONTROL. WHERE THERE IS ENHANCEMENT OF QPF FALLING AS SNOW...SOME
ACCUMULATION MAY OCCUR FOR AN HOUR OR TWO PERIOD. HOWEVER WITH THE
RECENT WARM SPELL GROUND TEMPERATURES WOULD SUPPORT MELTING...THUS
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE INSIGNIFICANT...A COUPLE TENTHS AT MOST.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH MORNING LOWS BELOW 0C FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FRIDAY
MORNING.
RETURN FLOW AND TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGING WILL PROMOTE A QUICK
WARM-UP ON FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S. THE RETURN
FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
AND WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA. A THETA-E GRADIENT NOSES INTO THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY SATURDAY. ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ALONG
THE GRADIENT...WITH LI/S APPROACHING -5C BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A
FEW ELEVATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY...A SIMILAR SETUP IS IN PLACE HOWEVER THE MODELS SHOW A COLD
FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS THE CWA EARLY AFTERNOON. MODEL CONSISTENCY
IS NOT TOO STRONG AT THIS POINT...BUT SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR A
MENTION OF THUNDERS ONCE AGAIN ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. WILL NEED TO WATCH AS PRE-FRONTAL CONDITIONS WOULD HAVE
SLIGHTLY MORE ENERGY TO WORK WITH.
THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THE PROGRESSION OF A SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW...WHICH MAY BRING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF QPF TO THE REGION. THE INIT GAVE US SLIGHT
CHANCES...WHICH IS REASONABLE GIVEN A LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN THE
LONG RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD ABUNDANT CLOUDS
AND THE THREAT FOR RAIN AND CONTINUED LOW CIGS ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR THE KLBF
TERMINAL...LIFR CIGS UNDER 1000 FT AGL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID
MORNING...WITH MVFR CIGS OF 1200 TO 1800 FT AGL AFTER 15Z. SOME
LIMITED CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE KLBF TERMINAL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH OVERCAST SKIES EXPECTED AFTER 01Z THURSDAY. LIGHT
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER THE LATE EVENING HOURS...WITH CIGS
DROPPING DOWN TO UNDER 1000 FT AGL OVERNIGHT. FOR THE KVTN
TERMINAL...EXPECT LIFR CIGS UNDER 1000 FT AGL THIS MORNING. MVFR
CIGS OF 1500 FT AGL ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. FOR
TONIGHT...CIGS WILL LOWER TO UNDER 1000 FT AGL WITH RAIN EXPECTED
AFTER 04Z THURSDAY. PERIODIC VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 4SM ARE POSSIBLE
AS WELL.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
342 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAD A CLOSED LOW OVER NRN
CALIFORNIA WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SWD INTO SO
CALIFORNIA. SWLY FLOW ALOFT EXTENDED FROM THE SWRN CONUS NEWD INTO
THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES. WV IMAGERY TONIGHT HAS THE BULK OF
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS MEXICO AND
TEXAS. FURTHER NORTH...MAINLY DRY MID AND UPPER LEVELS WERE
NOTED...HOWEVER A SMALL DISTURBANCE...HAS SPREAD MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA TONIGHT...WITH AN OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING STRIKE NOTED. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND EASTERLY WINDS...HAS LED TO ANOTHER NIGHT
OF LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND DRIZZLE. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDED FROM AROUND COLORADO SPRINGS...SEWD TO THE KS/OK
BORDER. NORTH OF THE FRONT...EASTERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WERE PRESENT ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. AS OF 3 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 39 AT
VALENTINE AND AINSWORTH TO 43 AT IMPERIAL AND OGALLALA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT TWO PERIODS IS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND PRECIPITATION TYPES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
FOR TODAY...EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR LOW CLOUDS FOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE IN THE
PANHANDLE ZONES AND ACROSS FAR SWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...PER HRRR AND NAM12 H85 AND H85-H90 RH FIELDS. WITH
THIS IN MIND...FILTERED SUN WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S.
ELSEWHERE...HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES EAST INTO WESTERN
WYOMING...NRN UT AND NWRN COLORADO ELEVATED AND SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. THE
LATEST NAM12 IS INDICATIVE OF NEGATIVE LI`S ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
FROM 21Z THROUGH 03Z AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWRN NEBRASKA WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY FROM 00Z THROUGH 06Z THIS EVENING. DID GO
AHEAD AND INTRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST IN THE FAR WEST
AND SWRN CWA FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN LIGHT OF THE
NEGATIVE LI/S. AS FOR PCPN CHANCES...THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. THESE AREAS ARE IN
THE MOST FAVORABLE AREAS FOR ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPG
TROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN IN THE WRAP AROUND OVERNIGHT. AS FOR
PRECIPITATION TYPE OVERNIGHT...DECIDED TO KEEP THE BULK OF PCPN AS
ALL RAIN AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE ONLY A 1 TO 2 HOUR WINDOW
FOR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...AND THIS IS MAINLY THURSDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN CWA. DECIDED TO WORD THE
FCST AS RAIN OR SNOW...AS LOWS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP INTO 33
TO 35 DEGREE RANGE IN THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. AS FOR SNOW
ACCUMS...DECIDED TO KEEP THESE AT A MINIMUM AS IT IS EXPECTED TO
MIX WITH RAIN...AND WARM GROUND CONDS SHOULD LIMIT ANY ACCUMS IF
THEY DO OCCUR.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WILL WORK EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS...BUT BEGIN TO WANE IN
THE AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM RELATIVE UPGLIDE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST. IN ADDITION...LARGE SCALE LIFT
DECREASES AS THE TROUGH AXIS WORKS INTO EASTERN IOWA BY MID
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE LIGHT
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL ONLY ACCUMULATE A
FEW ADDITIONAL TENTHS AT MOST. WHAT CONTINUES TO BE THE GREATEST
ENIGMA WITH THIS SYSTEM IS WHEN AND IF A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WERE
TO OCCUR. ENOUGH MID AND UPPER LEVEL COOLING WILL HELP WITH THE
CHANGE OVER...ESPECIALLY SINCE H85-H9 TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW 0C
AFTER 12Z ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST THURSDAY MORNING. WOULD EXPECT THAT
THE FROZEN HYDROMETEOR WOULD MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE...BUT SFC T/S
ARE SHOWN LARGELY TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE 0C. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT A CHANGE OVER WILL OCCUR...AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY...BUT THEN
QUICKLY CHANGE BACK TO ALL RAIN AS THE DIURNAL HEATING TAKES
CONTROL. WHERE THERE IS ENHANCEMENT OF QPF FALLING AS SNOW...SOME
ACCUMULATION MAY OCCUR FOR AN HOUR OR TWO PERIOD. HOWEVER WITH THE
RECENT WARM SPELL GROUND TEMPERATURES WOULD SUPPORT MELTING...THUS
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE INSIGNIFICANT...A COUPLE TENTHS AT MOST.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH MORNING LOWS BELOW 0C FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FRIDAY
MORNING.
RETURN FLOW AND TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGING WILL PROMOTE A QUICK
WARM-UP ON FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S. THE RETURN
FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
AND WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA. A THETA-E GRADIENT NOSES INTO THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY SATURDAY. ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ALONG
THE GRADIENT...WITH LI/S APPROACHING -5C BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A
FEW ELEVATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY...A SIMILAR SETUP IS IN PLACE HOWEVER THE MODELS SHOW A COLD
FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS THE CWA EARLY AFTERNOON. MODEL CONSISTENCY
IS NOT TOO STRONG AT THIS POINT...BUT SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR A
MENTION OF THUNDERS ONCE AGAIN ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. WILL NEED TO WATCH AS PRE-FRONTAL CONDITIONS WOULD HAVE
SLIGHTLY MORE ENERGY TO WORK WITH.
THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THE PROGRESSION OF A SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW...WHICH MAY BRING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF QPF TO THE REGION. THE INIT GAVE US SLIGHT
CHANCES...WHICH IS REASONABLE GIVEN A LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN THE
LONG RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2015
LIFR CEILINGS CONTINUE FROM KVTN AND KBBW AND AREAS TO THE EAST.
IFR CEILINGS AT KLBF ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LIFR AT 3SM -DZ BR
OVC004 FROM 08Z-16Z...THEN P6SM OVC007 TIL 18Z. AFTER 18Z MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED. AT KVTN...LIFR CEILINGS NEAR 2SM -DZ BR
OVC002 UNTIL 18Z...THEN MVFR FOR REMAINDER OF PERIOD.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...ROBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
204 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AROUND
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY SUPPORT
RAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...BUT MAY TAIL OFF TO BELOW
FREEZING AT NIGHT...PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN OR SLEET BOTH LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
THE MOHAWK VALLEY...WESTERN CATSKILLS AND NORTHERN POCONOS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
950 PM UPDATE...
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE FORECASTS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE / IMPULSE INVOF
OF ELEVATED WARM FRONT TO PUSH PRECIP INTO WESTERN FA AROUND 6Z.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGHOUT
THE PREDAWN HOURS UNTIL RAIN SHOWERS COVER THE ENTIRE REGION FOR
THE MID-MORNING COMMUTE.
A VERY SLIGHT POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN OVER
THE NORTHERN FA, WHERE COLD AIR BLEEDS OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
POPS ARE VERY LOW (MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE) DURING THE
PERIOD OF THE MORNING WHEN TEMPS ARE MARGINAL, SO WILL KEEP THE
THREAT MINIMIZED. SEE NO NEED TO RAISE A FLAG FOR SUCH A LOW
PERCENTAGE EVENT.
4 PM UPDATE...
FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH MINOR IMPULSES MOVING
ALONG AN 850-700 MB WARM FRONT OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE
NECESSARY FORCING FOR PERIODIC BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THURSDAY. TIMING IS DIFFICULT IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN TO GET A
HANDLE ON EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE IT WILL HAPPEN...BUT 12Z MODELS
ARE SHOWING A LULL IN ACTION AS THIS FIRST WAVE DEPARTS THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A RESURGENCE OF ENERGY AFTER MIDNIGHT
AFFECTING MAINLY OUR SW ZONES...THEN THE NEPA AND WRN CATSKILLS
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. COLDER AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NRN NEW YORK WILL ALLOW FOR OUR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES TO DROP TO NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING BEFORE PRECIP
STARTS. EARLIER FORECASTS HAD MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET FOR
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND WRN CATS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
BEFORE WARMING. 12Z FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND GENERAL THICKNESS
FIELDS MAINTAIN THIS IDEA. NO WINTER HEADLINES AT THIS TIME AS THE
POPS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AS TO THIS HAPPENING BEFORE TEMPS
WARM...AND TEMPS ARE RIGHT ON THE FREEZING LINE ANYWAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TIMING CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC IN THIS FAST PATTERN THROUGH
THURSDAY...HOWEVER THE 12Z GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON A
COUPLE OF KEY PERIODS WHERE MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE
PRECIP. A SURGE ALONG THE WARM FRONT ALOFT OCCURS WEDNESDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LULL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. GREATER AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN THEN TAKES PLACE
WITH A DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW INCREASING ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF RAIN SWEEPING INTO THE AREA.
WE CONTINUE TO SEE SIGNS OF CLASSIC COLD AIR DAMMING ALONG OUR
EASTERN ZONES AGAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE UPPER 30S TOMORROW FROM THE CATSKILLS
TO THE NRN POCONOS. THIS WILL AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR TEMPERATURES
TO SLIP BELOW FREEZING IN THESE AREAS AS SOME LINGERING
PRECIPITATION WORKS IN AGAIN LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY FOR ANOTHER POTENTIAL ROUND OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET.
WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE
QUITE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM THE FINGER LAKES TO THE POCONOS
RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE UPPER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED WITH FAIR WEATHER TO FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WITH
TEMPS NUDGING UP OVERNIGHT. WE ALSO CONTINUE TO MENTION THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER WESTERN ZONES. FOR FRIDAY,
STILL EXPECTING THE AREA TO BRIEFLY BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWALTER
INDICES AND/OR LIFTED INDICES GET NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GET PAST 1.25 INCHES.. CAPE ITSELF WILL
BE VERY LIMITED...WHICH WILL HOLD BACK COVERAGE OF ANY
THUNDER...BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE GREAT JET SUPPORT VIA FORCED
ASCENT OF RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. SO THERE WILL AT LEAST BE A GOOD
BATCH OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONTINUED THE MENTION
OF THUNDER FOR MOST OF THE CWA BUT EXCLUDED NW AREAS OVER THE LAKE
PLAIN SINCE FRONT WILL CROSS THIS AREA EARLIER IN THE DAY.
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS COULD STILL OCCUR IN THE BRIEF COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY...MAINLY CENTRAL NY...BUT IN
GENERAL THINGS WILL DRY OUT THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY
SHOULD YIELD SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES EDGING BACK ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY AFTER A CHILLY DAWN. FURTHER WARMING EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVING LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WORST FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH MID MORNING WILL BE THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS. HERE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED AS LIGHT
RAIN OVERSPREADS THE TERMINALS. AT KELM AND KITH SOME IFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z, WHILE AT KBGM IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY
FROM NOW THROUGH MID MORNING. IN FACT AT KBGM BELOW ALT MINS
LIKELY PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.
BY LATE MORNING CIGS SLOWLY CREEP UP INTO MVFR RANGE AS SHOWERS
COME TO AN END ACROSS THE SOUTH. UP NORTH SHOWERS BECOME MORE
LIKELY WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN RESPONSE TO THE SHOWERS.
.OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-FRI...BUSY PATTERN WITH WAFFLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINING IN THE VICINITY...AND WAVES OF SHRA PLUS ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS MOVING ALONG IT. SLIGHT CHC TSRA AS WELL FRI.
SAT...MAINLY VFR BUT ISOLATED -SHRA STILL POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL
NY.
SUN...VFR.
SUN...VFR.
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH AS WE CONTINUE THE GRADUAL SNOW
MELT RUN OFF FROM THE NORTH FACING SLOPES AND DEEP WOODS THIS
WEEK. THAT COUPLED WITH THESE PERIODIC EPISODES OF RAIN WILL HAVE
US FLIRT WITH A MINOR RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IN OUR MOST SENSITIVE
HEADWATER AREAS. AT THIS TIME...THE RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE MODELS
LOOK TOO ROBUST THROUGH THURSDAY...AS SEVERAL MODELS ARE OVER
PERFORMING WITH EVEN TODAY`S RAIN...BUT AS THE DEEPER SYSTEM OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST WORKS EAST THIS WEEKEND IS WHEN WE WILL REALLY
NEED TO PAY ATTENTION AS THEN CONFIDENCE IN MORE RIVER POINTS
REACHING FLOOD STAGE MAY INCREASE. IN THE MEANTIME...THE NEXT 72
HOURS OR SO SHOULD BE OK WITH RIVERS RISING 3/4 TO NEAR BANKFULL
AT TIMES.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...HEDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1024 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PRECEDE A STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH
WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BE STRONG FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS LINGERING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND WILL UNFOLD
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
AS GULF MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE ODD POP-UP SHOWER CANT BE
RULED OUT IT LOOKS LIKE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION HAS ENDED FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FORECAST UPDATED ACCORDINGLY. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:
INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DISSIPATED AS AN
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING IMPULSE ALOFT
TEMPORARILY TAKES HOLD. DIURNAL CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED UPSTREAM AND
WITH GOOD INSOLATION ACROSS THE PEE DEE AND LUMBERTON AREAS THE
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE WILL WEAKEN. OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION ACROSS
COASTAL SOUTHEAST NC HAS DROPPED INTO HORRY COUNTY... AS NOTED BY
EARLIER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH THE
SEA BREEZE SHOULD PROVIDE A SPARK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST SC THIS AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCATTERED
STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE BETTER INSTABILITY EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PEE DEE REGION.
THE EARLIER RAINFALL WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON TODAY/S MAX TEMPERATURES
IN THE WILMINGTON AND VICINITY LOCATIONS. AS A RESULT...LOWERED
FORECAST MAX TEMPS THERE...WHILE RETAINED HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR
LBT...FLO...AND INLAND COASTAL SC LOCATIONS. WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
TONIGHT WILL KEEP MIN TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 236 PM THURSDAY...CHIEF HEADLINES ARE A CHANGE OF AIR-MASS
INTO SATURDAY FROM WARM TO MUGGY TO DRY AND MILD...AND A SHOT AT
STRONG STORMS LATE FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SEVERE
THREAT IS NOT SUPPORTED IN DIURNAL TIMING AS IT ARRIVES BEYOND
PEAK SURFACE HEATING FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT COOLING ALOFT MAY SUPPORT
SOME HAIL. TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH
WINDS NO GREATER THAN 35 KNOTS IN THE LOWEST 8KFT...AND H8 25-30
KT BARBS. PEAK PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT AROUND 1.75
INCHES AND SOME JET SUPPORT ALOFT SHOULD OFFER A GOOD SHOT AT
RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST...AND
CLEARING THE COAST AROUND MIDDAY SATURDAY.
UPPER 80 MAXIMUMS FRIDAY INLAND...LOW 80S COASTAL INTERIOR...AND
UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S BEACHES...WILL COOL TO 70S SATURDAY TO
NEAR 80 WELL INLAND...UPPER 60S TO 70 BEACHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 236 PM THURSDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS RATHER QUIET AS A
MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE BELOW ONE HALF INCH SUNDAY WITH A
SLOW INCREASE MONDAY. HAVE KEPT THESE DAYS DRY FOR THE MOST PART.
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INCREASE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS PWS
SURGE TO IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES. HOWEVER SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS SHOW
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING AND POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE CATEGORY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY. FOR
THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING ACROSS AS A BROAD AREA OF MID LEVEL
CONFLUENCE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. I
MAINTAINED THE POPS FOR THURSDAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS AND THE
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AS READINGS WILL BE JUST A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED...HOWEVER THERE IS ONE
MORE IMPULSE THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CWA IN AN HOUR OR SO.
THE HRRR MODEL HAS FAIRLY SPIRITED CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN CWA
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT THINK THIS MAY BE OVERDONE. WILL
KEEP ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE TAFS AT LBT AND FLO AT THIS
TIME. OVERNIGHT...MID AND HIGH CLOUD CONVECTIVE DEBRIS IS EXPECTED
WITH POSSIBLE MVFR FOG.
FRIDAY...AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST GRADIENT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL
GIVE US WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE
SHOULD BE A FAIRLY VIGOROUS LINE OF CONVECTION THAT WILL MARCH
ACROSS THE CWA FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. POSSIBLE
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM THURSDAY...LATEST OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW SEAS OF
RIGHT AROUND 3 FT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS. THIS IS IN
LINE WITH THE LATEST FORECAST. NO CHANGES WITH THE LATEST UPDATES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
CONVECTION HAS RESULTED IN A VARIABLE WIND FIELD ACROSS THE NC
COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC
FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN TAKE HOLD LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 10 TO
15 KNOTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE ANY CONVECTION...SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 236 PM THURSDAY...DESPITE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE VERY EARLY
SATURDAY JUST PRIOR TO...OR AROUND DAYBREAK THAT MAY BRING A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE PLANNED...AS
WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW 20 KT.
GUSTS TO 20 KT FRIDAY AFTERNOON SEEMS LIKELY WITH SEA BREEZE
ASSISTANCE...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOT OVERLY STRONG WITH THIS
SYSTEM OUTSIDE OF TSTMS. A FEW MARINE WARNINGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SEAS OF 2-3 FEET WILL BUILD TO
3-4 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY 5 FT VERY OUTER PORTION. PATCHY
SEA FOG POSSIBLE FRIDAY BUT WATERS HAVE WARMED AND CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON ITS FORMATION.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 236 PM THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE
APPALACHIANS TO WELL OFFSHORE DURING THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL RESPOND
BY VEERING FROM NORTHEAST SUNDAY TO SOUTHEAST BY MIDDAY MONDAY. THEY
WILL MAINTAIN THIS DIRECTION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE HIGHER END OF A 10-15 KNOT RANGE SUNDAY THEN
SETTLE INTO THE ENTIRE RANGE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL BE 2-4 FEET SUNDAY DROPPING TO 1-3 FEET LATER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...REK/SRP
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/SHK/SRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
729 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PRECEDE A STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH
WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BE STRONG FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS LINGERING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND WILL UNFOLD
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
AS GULF MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM THURSDAY...ISOLATED CONVECTION NOW CONFINED TO OUR
FAR INLAND COUNTIES BUT HAS BEEN STUBBORNLY PERSISTENT. NO STRONG
CONVECTION AT PRESENT AND PRESENT TRENDS AND GUIDANCE INDICATE A
VERY GRADUAL WEAKENING WITH A LULL IN THE ACTION FOR THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DISSIPATED AS AN
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING IMPULSE ALOFT
TEMPORARILY TAKES HOLD. DIURNAL CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED UPSTREAM AND
WITH GOOD INSOLATION ACROSS THE PEE DEE AND LUMBERTON AREAS THE
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE WILL WEAKEN. OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION ACROSS
COASTAL SOUTHEAST NC HAS DROPPED INTO HORRY COUNTY... AS NOTED BY
EARLIER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH THE
SEA BREEZE SHOULD PROVIDE A SPARK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST SC THIS AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCATTERED
STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE BETTER INSTABILITY EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PEE DEE REGION.
THE EARLIER RAINFALL WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON TODAY/S MAX TEMPERATURES
IN THE WILMINGTON AND VICINITY LOCATIONS. AS A RESULT...LOWERED
FORECAST MAX TEMPS THERE...WHILE RETAINED HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR
LBT...FLO...AND INLAND COASTAL SC LOCATIONS. WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
TONIGHT WILL KEEP MIN TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 236 PM THURSDAY...CHIEF HEADLINES ARE A CHANGE OF AIR-MASS
INTO SATURDAY FROM WARM TO MUGGY TO DRY AND MILD...AND A SHOT AT
STRONG STORMS LATE FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SEVERE
THREAT IS NOT SUPPORTED IN DIURNAL TIMING AS IT ARRIVES BEYOND
PEAK SURFACE HEATING FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT COOLING ALOFT MAY SUPPORT
SOME HAIL. TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH
WINDS NO GREATER THAN 35 KNOTS IN THE LOWEST 8KFT...AND H8 25-30
KT BARBS. PEAK PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT AROUND 1.75
INCHES AND SOME JET SUPPORT ALOFT SHOULD OFFER A GOOD SHOT AT
RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST...AND
CLEARING THE COAST AROUND MIDDAY SATURDAY.
UPPER 80 MAXIMUMS FRIDAY INLAND...LOW 80S COASTAL INTERIOR...AND
UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S BEACHES...WILL COOL TO 70S SATURDAY TO
NEAR 80 WELL INLAND...UPPER 60S TO 70 BEACHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 236 PM THURSDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS RATHER QUIET AS A
MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE BELOW ONE HALF INCH SUNDAY WITH A
SLOW INCREASE MONDAY. HAVE KEPT THESE DAYS DRY FOR THE MOST PART.
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INCREASE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS PWS
SURGE TO IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES. HOWEVER SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS SHOW
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING AND POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE CATEGORY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY. FOR
THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING ACROSS AS A BROAD AREA OF MID LEVEL
CONFLUENCE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. I
MAINTAINED THE POPS FOR THURSDAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS AND THE
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AS READINGS WILL BE JUST A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED...HOWEVER THERE IS ONE
MORE IMPULSE THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CWA IN AN HOUR OR SO.
THE HRRR MODEL HAS FAIRLY SPIRITED CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN CWA
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT THINK THIS MAY BE OVERDONE. WILL
KEEP ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE TAFS AT LBT AND FLO AT THIS
TIME. OVERNIGHT...MID AND HIGH CLOUD CONVECTIVE DEBRIS IS EXPECTED
WITH POSSIBLE MVFR FOG.
FRIDAY...AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST GRADIENT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL
GIVE US WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE
SHOULD BE A FAIRLY VIGOROUS LINE OF CONVECTION THAT WILL MARCH
ACROSS THE CWA FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. POSSIBLE
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM THURSDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW SEAS OF RIGHT AROUND 3 FT
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST FORECAST. NO CHANGES WITH THE LATEST UPDATES. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
CONVECTION HAS RESULTED IN A VARIABLE WIND FIELD ACROSS THE NC
COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC
FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN TAKE HOLD LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 10 TO
15 KNOTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE ANY CONVECTION...SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 236 PM THURSDAY...DESPITE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE VERY EARLY
SATURDAY JUST PRIOR TO...OR AROUND DAYBREAK THAT MAY BRING A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE PLANNED...AS
WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW 20 KT.
GUSTS TO 20 KT FRIDAY AFTERNOON SEEMS LIKELY WITH SEA BREEZE
ASSISTANCE...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOT OVERLY STRONG WITH THIS
SYSTEM OUTSIDE OF TSTMS. A FEW MARINE WARNINGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SEAS OF 2-3 FEET WILL BUILD TO
3-4 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY 5 FT VERY OUTER PORTION. PATCHY
SEA FOG POSSIBLE FRIDAY BUT WATERS HAVE WARMED AND CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON ITS FORMATION.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 236 PM THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE
APPALACHIANS TO WELL OFFSHORE DURING THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL RESPOND
BY VEERING FROM NORTHEAST SUNDAY TO SOUTHEAST BY MIDDAY MONDAY. THEY
WILL MAINTAIN THIS DIRECTION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE HIGHER END OF A 10-15 KNOT RANGE SUNDAY THEN
SETTLE INTO THE ENTIRE RANGE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL BE 2-4 FEET SUNDAY DROPPING TO 1-3 FEET LATER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...REK/SRP
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/SHK/SRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
959 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
STALL OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
LATE FRIDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 10 AM WEDNESDAY...ONE AREA OF PRECIP ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION
AND NORTHERN OUTER BANKS MOVG OFFSHORE AND ANOTHER DVLPG JUST W OF
THE NRN COASTAL PLAINS. THE 4 KM WRF MODEL SHOWS AREA OF
CONVECTION MOVG INTO THE NRN COASTAL PLAINS AND PROGRESSING E-SE
ACRS THE AREA THROUGH ABT 18Z. GIVEN RADAR TRENDS...AND ADDITIONAL
FOCUS OF BACKDOOR FNT ACRS NERN AREAS WILL RAISE POPS TO LIKELY
WITH MODERATE SHOWERS AND HIGHER QPF VALUES ACRS THE NRN TIER CWFA
AND EXTEND THROUGH EARLY AFTN. WILL CONT WITH HIGH CHC 40% POPS
FOR SRN TIER THROUGH EARLY AFTN AS WELL. H5 IMPL WORKING THROUGH
THE AREA HELPING TO INITIATE CONVECTION LATE THIS MORN THROUGH
EARLY AFTN. LIKELY WILL SEE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE
WITH CONVECTION DIMINISHING BUT WITH UNSTABLE AMS WITH TEMPS IN
THE LWR 80S AND FOCUS OF BACKDOOR FNT WILL KEEP LOW CHC POPS ALL
BUT IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE WILL HAVE SLGT CHC POPS FOR THE RMNDR OF
THE AFTN. OTRW...MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO INIT T/TD.
PREV DISC...VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST NEXT 36 HOURS IN TRYING TO
PROVIDE DETAIL REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE MOIST BUT
WEAKLY FORCED ATMOSPHERE OVER THE CAROLINAS. ZONAL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ALBEIT WITH RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THURSDAY. WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE MID
LEVEL WAVES IN THIS FLOW WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ESPECIALLY IF THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS TODAY TRIGGERS A STRONGER MCV WHICH WOULD
THEN MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT. THE LARGE SCALE MODELS HAVE BEEN
HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME IN HANDLING THIS SITUATION SO HAVE A
RELIED ON THE HRRR AND THE HIGH RESOLUTION NMM AND WRF MODELS TO
TRY TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY IN THE SOUTHERLY PRE FRONTAL FLOW WITH HIGHS INLAND
IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWER 70S BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...THE BACK DOOR FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH TO
NEAR THE CRYSTAL COAST OVERNIGHT THEN STALL. STILL UNCERTAIN ON
PRECIPITATION DETAILS SO WILL FORECAST 30-50% POPS HIGHEST OUTER
BANKS. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...00Z MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH BACKDOOR FRONT STALLING OVER SRN SECTIONS LATE WED
NIGHT...THEN RETREATING NORTH ON THU. ECWMF AND GFS ALSO IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
BE NEAR COAST SAT MORNING...THUS INCREASED POPS FRI NIGHT AND
DECREASED INLAND SAT.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SFC FRONT EXPECTED TO RETREAT NORTH
DURING THE DAY WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. LACK OF UPR SUPPORT
EXPECTED TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT KEPT 20% POPS WITH
FRONT MOVING BACK NORTH. DID DROP POPS FOR THU NIGHT WITH MODELS
INDICATING PCPN THREAT WEST AND NORTH OF AREA. MOS GDNC CONTINUES
TO HAVE LARGE DIFFERENCES ON HIGH TEMPS WITH GFS COOLER AND NAM
WARMER DUE TO HANDLING OF FRONT. UPDATED PREVIOUS FCST WITH LEAN
TO COOLER GFS...HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 80 SOUTH TO 65-70 NORTH.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VERY WARM TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY AHEAD
OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FRIDAY NIGHT. NO CHANGE TO
PREVIOUS THINKING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY FOR INLAND
SECTIONS AS DECENT INSTABILITY AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WEST-SOUTHWEST
FLOW IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CHC POPS IN AFTERNOON INLAND OF SEA
BREEZE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT MID 80S FOR INLAND SECTIONS.
LATEST MODELS AGREE ON MAIN THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...AND INCREASED POPS TO 60% ALL
ZONES...MAINLY FOR WRN HALF DURING EVENING AND ERN HALF OVERNIGHT.
CONCUR WITH SPC OUTLOOK OF SLIGHT RISK OF SVR WITH SUFFICIENT MID
LVL SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STRONG CONVECTION.
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE SAT MORNING AND HAVE LOWERED POPS
TO INDICATE DRIER TREND. MAX TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGS COOLER THAN
FRIDAY WITH MID 70S INLAND TO LOWER 60S NRN OBX.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG HIGH PRES WILL EXTEND
OVER AREA FROM NORTH SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND GRADUALLY MOVE EAST
SUN NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FCST. HIGH PRES WILL
CONTINUE MOVING OFFSHORE WITH MOIST S TO SW FLOW RETURNING. SLIGHT
CHC POPS FOR SW HALF OF AREA MONDAY AND MON NIGHT...INCREASING TO
20-30% ALL AREAS TUESDAY. MAIN TEMP CHANGE WILL BE MIN TEMPS 10-15
DEGS ABOVE NORMAL MON NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM WEDNESDAY...DIFFICULT FORECAST WITH PRECIPITATION
APPROACHING THE TAF SITES FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITATION WILL
AFFECT THE TAF SITES ON AND OFF FM 14-18Z WITH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH
THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE IS AGAIN POINTING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR
CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING AS THE BL REMAINS
SATURATED BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS LOW DUE TO RECENT TENDENCY FOR
GUIDANCE TO OVER FORECAST THESE CONDITIONS. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW BEHIND THE BACK DOOR FRONT MAY BE MORE CONDUCIVE TO IFR
CONDITIONS THOUGH SO WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...SOME LOWER CIGS COULD PERSIST THURS
MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL NE FLOW. VFR MAINLY EXPECTED THURS NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...THEN HIGHER THREAT OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT WITH GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED
AS STRONGER FRONT MOVES INTO AREA. GUSTY SW WINDS 15-25 MPH LIKELY
FRIDAY AHEAD OF FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW AVIATION
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM WEDNESDAY...NO SIG CHANGES ON UPDATE. WINDS WILL
REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN WATERS/ALBEMARLE SOUND TODAY THEN CONTINUE SOUTH TONIGHT
INTO THE CENTRAL WATERS/PAMLICO SOUND WHERE IT WILL STALL. EXPECT
WINDS TO VEER FROM SOUTHERLY THIS MORNING TO SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY
THIS AFTERNOON THEN TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST THINKING WITH
WINDS GRADUALLY RETURNING TO S-SW DURING THE DAY THU AS FRONT
RETREATS BACK NORTH. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INDICATE FASTER COLD FRONT
PASSAGE SAT MORNING WITH LATEST MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. STILL
EXPECT STRONGEST WINDS FRI AND FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF FRONT...SW
15-25 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRI
AFTN INTO EARLY SAT. NE SURGE 10-20 KT EXPECTED LATE SAT THROUGH
SUNDAY. ADJUSTED SEAS WITH LATEST NWPS. HEIGHTS MAINLY 3-4 FT
THU...BUILDING TO 4-6 FT FRI-FRI NIGHT...THEN DIMINISHING 2-4 FT
SUNDAY.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JAC/JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JAC/JME/JBM
MARINE...JAC/JME/JBM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
819 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...AS HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE CIRCULATES BALMY AIR INTO
THE REGION. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
MILD CONDITIONS...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE. A DRYING TREND
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM WEDNESDAY...THE LAST OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WAS
PIVOTING ACROSS FORECAST AREA. A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS WERE
ONGOING...BUT WERE ENDING WEST OF INTERSTATE 95. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL WAS INDICATING A SLIGHT REJUVENATION IN THIS
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR RIVER AREA AFTER SUNRISE AND HAVE
INCLUDED HIGHEST MORNING POPS HERE. THE TROUGH WILL BE OFFSHORE BY
MID MORNING.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT IN THE WAKE OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH...
SUBSIDENCE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MID AND LATE MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE COLUMN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE WITH
MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1500-2000 J/KG...HIGHEST
THIS AFTERNOON. DO NOT SEE ANY DISCERNIBLE FEATURES ALOFT TO
TRIGGER ANYTHING MORE THAN AIRMASS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
INLAND PENETRATING SEABREEZE BOUNDARY AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES MAY BECOME POINTS OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION/ORGANIZATION.
RATHER WARM AND RELATIVELY DRIER AIR ALOFT MAY ALSO ACT TO HINDER
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL CAP POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE/SMALL CHANCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY. CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS THAT WITH A POTENT...BUT
DAMPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WNW...ITS
ASSOCIATED COOLER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS MAY HELP TO MAINTAIN
UPSTREAM CONVECTION AS IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
THUS...WILL SHOW MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS...
LIKELY MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA AND THE ADJACENT PEE DEE REGION OF SOUTH CAROLINA.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO SIGNIFICANT
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE AND WITH THAT...EXPECT TEMPS WELL UP INTO THE 80S
INLAND TODAY WHERE RECORDS AT KLBT AND KFLO ARE 90 DEGREES. ALONG
THE COAST...THE SEABREEZE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE DECENT INLAND
PROGRESS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AND SO WILL CAP HIGHS IN
THE CAPE FEAR REGION IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. THE MORE
IMMEDIATE CAROLINA COAST WILL LIKELY BE STYMIED IN THE MID 70S WITH
SOME BEACHES IN THE LOWER 70S. ANOTHER BALMY NIGHT UPCOMING WITH
LOWS TONIGHT REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL...LOWER TO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER THROUGH THURS
AND FRI WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AS BERMUDA HIGH
DOMINATES THE WEATHER. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO
NORTH CAROLINA AND MAY REACH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PRODUCE MORE
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THURS MORNING...BUT NOT EXPECTING THIS
FEATURE TO BE MUCH OF A PLAYER IN OUR OVERALL FORECAST. HIGH
PRESSURE OFF SHORE WILL DOMINATE...PRODUCING A DEEPER WARM AND
MOIST S-SW RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...INCREASING INTO FRIDAY AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
CAROLINAS FROM THE W-NW. THIS MORE SUMMER-LIKE MOIST AND MORE UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED CLOUDS
AND CONVECTION ESPECIALLY AS MID TO UPPER RIDGE SLIPS OFF THE
COAST LATE THURS. THE SEA BREEZE WILL PENETRATE FAR ENOUGH INLAND
ON THURS TO KEEP MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY AWAY FROM THE COAST BUT THE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD CARRY SOME OF THE DEBRIS CLOUDS
EASTWARD. WITH CLOUDS AND HIGH DEWPOINT AIR...TEMPS WILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT GIVING A JUMPSTART TO DAY TIME HIGHS
WHICH WILL REACH INTO THE 80S AND 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
DEEP MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W-NW. THIS WILL INCREASE MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH PCP WATER VALUES INCREASING UP CLOSE TO
1.75 INCHES BY FRI NIGHT IN DECENT LLJ. INITIALLY A STRONGER SEA
BREEZE SHOULD KEEP BEST CONVERGENCE AND CONVECTION AWAY FROM COAST
BUT AS STEERING FLOW VEERS AROUND WITH APPROACH OF FRONT...SHWRS
AND STORMS WILL REACH THE COAST. STRONGER CONVECTION IS LIKELY
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT THE BEST DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL REMAIN
NW OF FORECAST AREA AND THE COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH OVERNIGHT
AFTER BEST DIURNAL HEATING CUTS OFF. THEREFORE STRONGER CONVECTION
MAY REMAIN MORE ISOLATED. COLD FRONT SHOULD BE RIGHT AT THE COAST
BY SAT MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT RIGHT ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST
SATURDAY MORNING MAY GET HUNG UP BEFORE MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH LATER
IN THE DAY. THIS COULD LEAVE SOME LINGERING PCP ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH SAT MORNING BUT OVERALL EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD DOWN
BEHIND FRONT BRINGING A CHANGE OF AIR MASS TO THE CAROLINAS. PCP
WATER VALUES WILL DROP FROM CLOSE TO 1.75 INCHES AHEAD OF FRONT
DOWN CLOSE TO A HALF INCH BEHIND IT BY SAT AFTN. EXPECT WINDS TO
SHIFT AROUND TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION. COOLER AIR BEHIND
FRONT WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL SEASONABLE VALUES THROUGH
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS IS MORE
OPTIMISTIC WITH THE CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL HEDGE
TOWARD THIS SOLUTION WITH CLEARING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AND SUNSHINE
FOR SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP OFF THE COAST MONDAY INTO TUES WITH A
DEEPER RETURN FLOW SETTING UP ONCE AGAIN. THIS WILL INTRODUCE POPS
BACK INTO THE FORECAST WITH A WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS
RETURNING....BUT THE GFS KEEPS THE RIDGE FARTHER WEST AND
THEREFORE KEEPS BEST RETURN FLOW FARTHER INLAND. ALSO THE COOLER
OCEAN WATERS WILL KEEP A STRONGER SEA BREEZE THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
THEREFORE SHOULD PENETRATE FARTHER INLAND MON AND TUES KEEPING
BEST CHC OF PCP FARTHER INLAND. MAY END UP SUNNIER WEATHER BOTH
MON AND TUES FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...INTERMITTENT MVFR THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY.
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR LATE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING DUE
TO AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CIGS.
VFR PREVAILS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KLBT WHICH IS CURRENTLY OBSERVING MVFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO FOG. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...THOUGH WOULD NOT RULE OUT
A PASSING LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY...BACKING TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON
AOB 10 KTS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE. TONIGHT...VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. MVFR
POSSIBLE DUE TO FOG AND PASSING LOW CIGS LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
AND BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM WEDNESDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG
SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA...REACHING JUST SOUTH OF THE VIRGINIA-NORTH
CAROLINA LINE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. CIRCULATION AROUND
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE WEST OF DUE SOUTH
THAN IN RECENT DAYS...BUT THE DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO BACK
SLIGHTLY AS THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY SHARPENS AND MOVES INLAND LATE
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ENHANCED
SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DURING THIS TIME.
STILL...WILL NOT FORECAST SUSTAINED WINDS ANY HIGHER THAN 10 TO 15
KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT LIKELY. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE SW
TONIGHT. SOME NOCTURNAL JETTING MAY MIX DOWN ACROSS THE WARMER
OFFSHORE WATERS...BUT WITHIN 20 NM...EXPECT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
CAPPED AT 15 KT. A SE SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 8 TO 9 SECONDS ALONG
WITH WIND ENERGY WILL HELP KEEP SEAS IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...RETURN FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH THURS
INTO FRIDAY WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT EXPECTED WITH S-SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KT WILL INCREASE THROUGH LATE FRI AHEAD OF FRONT...UP TO 3 TO 5 FT.
THE COOLER OCEAN WATERS COMPARED TO THE UNSEASONABLE WARM AIR
TEMPS EXPECTED OVER LAND WILL PRODUCE STRONGER SEA BREEZES CAUSING
A RISE IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WITH GUSTY NEAR SHORE WINDS.
INCREASING S WINDS AND ELEVATED DEWPOINTS LATE THURSDAY OVER THE
RELATIVELY COOLER INSHORE WATERS MAY PRODUCE PATCHY MARINE FOG
PRIMARILY THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
REACH THE COAST SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOULD CROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SW WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT UP TO 10 TO 15
KT WILL SHIFT AROUND TO N THROUGH SAT MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND COLD FRONT WITH WINDS VEERING SLIGHTLY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST TOWARD THE COAST WHILE
REMAINING NORTH OF LOCAL WATERS. SEAS UP TO 3 TO 5 FT AHEAD OF
FRONT EARLY SAT WILL SUBSIDE IN OFF SHORE TO NORTHERLY FLOW
THROUGH SAT AFTN DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT BUT MAY SPIKE UP A LITTLE ON
SUNDAY IN PERSISTENT NE FLOW.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
650 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AIR MASS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER
THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP
INTO NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT... THEN
LIFT BACK NORTH LATE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
LATE FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...
TOUGH FORECAST THIS MORNING TRYING TO PINPOINT THE DETAILS OF
EXPECTED CONVECTION. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A PROMINENT COLD
FRONT FROM NRN OK THROUGH NRN MO... WITH A MORE DIFFUSE FRONTAL ZONE
EXTENDING ACROSS IL AND THE OH VALLEY THEN SOUTHEAST THROUGH NRN/ERN
VA. ISOLATED BUT STRONG AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER SC INTO SE NC
EARLIER TONIGHT IS EXITING BUT ADDITIONAL LESS-ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS ARE CLOSE BEHIND... THE DYING REMNANTS OF AN EARLIER
MATURE COMPLEX THAT CROSSED KY LAST EVENING. THIS HAS MANIFESTED
INTO A WEAK MCV THAT CAN BE DISCERNED IN RADAR AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CENTERED OVER WEST CENTRAL VA. THE LAST FEW HRRR MODEL RUNS
REFLECTED BOTH OF THESE FEATURES BETTER THAN THE LARGER-SCALE MODELS
WITH PARAMETERIZED CONVECTION (NOT A SURPRISE)... AND HAVE LARGELY
FOLLOWED THIS SOLUTION FOR THE NEXT 12 HRS OR SO. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS THROUGH MID MORNING... WITH THE BEST CHANCE
SHIFTING TO NRN/ERN CWA NEAR AND SOON AFTER SUNRISE. WE SHOULD THEN
SEE A PERIOD OF RELATIVE SUBSIDENCE FROM ROUGHLY LATE MORNING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON... AS THE VA MCV SHIFTS OFF THE COAST INDUCING
SURFACE LOW FORMATION ALONG THE WEAK FRONTAL ZONE. AS THIS OCCURS...
THE NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW SHOULD HELP DRAW THE
FRONTAL ZONE SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL/NE NC. THE LAST SEVERAL
GFS RUNS HAVE TAKEN THIS FRONT MUCH FURTHER INTO NC THAN THE OTHER
MODEL SOLUTIONS. WHILE THERE IS A CHILLY SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER
QUEBEC NOSING SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES INTO THE NRN
MIDATLANTIC REGION... THIS LOOKS TO BE CENTERED TOO FAR NORTH TO
HAVE MUCH INFLUENCE ON THE FRONT THIS FAR SOUTH. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT
TO NORTHEASTERLY OVER THE NE CWA WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS MOVING
IN LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT... BUT THE COOLING SHOULDN`T BE THAT
EXTREME. WILL FORECAST HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW-MID 80S EXCEPT FOR MID-
UPPER 70S IN THE FAR NE. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE CONVECTION NOW
ALONG THE FRONT OVER KS/MO/IA/IL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ITS RESULTING
MCV TO MOVE ESE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE INTO OUR REGION LATE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. THE GFS HINTS AT THIS... SHOWING SPOTTY MID LEVEL
VORTICITY MAXIMA (LOOKING LIKE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK) MOVING TO THE
CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. IT MAKES SENSE
THAT THIS WOULD TRIGGER CONVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
WHERE MODELS INDICATE MUCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG IN THE 21Z-06Z TIME
FRAME WITH DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS... STILL RATHER
MODEST BUT ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION AS THE COLD POOL TRACKS ESE
THROUGH NRN/ERN NC. WILL SHOW A PERIOD OF LOW POPS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON... FOLLOWED BY A RISE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING... TRENDING DOWN OVERNIGHT AS THIS
PERTURBATION EXITS TO OUR EAST. WITH THE FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO BE
SITTING OVER THE NE CWA OVERNIGHT... WILL HAVE LOWS IN THE 60-65
RANGE EXCEPT FOR MID-UPPER 50S NE. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...
STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CO/KS BORDER TODAY WILL REMAIN
STRONG AS TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT TO SRN WI LATE THU AND NEAR SAULT
STE MARIE BY DAYBREAK FRI. THE FRONTAL ZONE MEANWHILE BY LATE THU
WILL EXTEND ACROSS SRN MI DOWN THROUGH WRN PA/VA THEN EASTWARD ALONG
THE ERN VA/NC BORDER AREA. THE NAM/GFS SHOW DESTABILIZATION THU
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING (THE NAM MORESO THAN THE GFS)
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW CWA SW OF THE FRONT WITH MUCAPE EXCEEDING
1500 J/KG... HOWEVER THE DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR DECREASES TO LESS
THAN 25 KTS... A REFLECTION OF THE DIGGING ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST
(LEADING TO THE STRONG SURFACE LOW) PROMPTING RISING HEIGHTS AND
REDUCED MID LEVEL WINDS OVER THE CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST STATES... AND
THIS SHOULD REDUCE THE PROBABILITY FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
WILL BRING IN CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS... FOCUSED MAINLY
OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA... PEAKING DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S NE TO LOWER 80S SW.
WARM LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE MID 60S... WHICH WILL APPROACH RECORD
HIGH MINIMUMS FOR APRIL 10TH. -GIH
&&
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...
THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE WITH REGARD TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TAKES A BIG TURN FOR THE WORSE BEGINNING
ON MONDAY AS MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY. ABOUT THE ONLY
THING THEY AGREE ON AT THIS POINT IS SOME KIND OF UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST BUT EVEN THE POSITION AND TIMING OF THAT IS IN
QUESTION AT THIS TIME. THE PROBLEMS EARLY NEXT WEEK STEM FROM A
CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TEXAS THAT FUNNELS MOISTURE OUT OF THE
GULF AND OVER THE DEEP SOUTH BUT THERE ARE MASSIVE QUESTIONS IN
TIMING AS THE ECMWF SOLUTION HAS PRECIPITATION REACHING CENTRAL NC
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THE GFS DOESN`T HAVE ANYTHING MEASURABLE
OVER THE CWA UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. THAT QUALIFIES AS AN EXTREMELY
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AND WILL BE HANDLED AS SUCH. THEREFORE WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FROM MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
SHIFTING THE CONVERSATION FROM WHAT WE DON`T KNOW TO MORE OF WHAT WE
DO KNOW REGARDING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ON FRIDAY...SPC STILL HAS AN
AREA OF 15% RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER ALL OF CENTRAL NC. AFTER A
CLOSER LOOK AT THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...STORMS
WILL BE INSTABILITY DRIVEN WITH THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA
MOST LIKELY TO SEE STRONGER STORM ACTIVITY BUT THE POSSIBILITY WILL
REMAIN EVERYWHERE. THE KFAY MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW JUST OVER 1100 J/KG
OF SURFACE BASED CAPE WITH 500 J/KG OCCURRING WITHIN THE HAIL GROWTH
ZONE. THE HAIL THREAT LOOKS BETTER THAN THE WIND THREAT AT THIS TIME
AS SHEAR IS MEAGER...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LEVELS. SOME INVERTED V
SIGNATURES IN THE SOUNDING AND SOME RELATIVE DRYING AT THE 700 MB
LEVEL COULD INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WET MICROBURSTS BUT
OVERALL THE ENVIRONMENT FOR WIND OUTSIDE OF A LARGER HAIL CORE
COLLAPSING IS LESS FAVORABLE AND VERY LOW AMOUNTS OF HELICITY
SUGGEST TORNADOES WILL NOT BE LIKELY EITHER. OVERALL FEELING IS THAT
SOME STRONGER STORMS WILL POP UP FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT ANY SEVERE
WILL BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. WORTH WATCHING TO SEE HOW IT EVOLVES OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CONVECTION SHOULD PRODUCE DECENT QPF VALUES
IN THE RANGE OF A QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. PW VALUES
ARE OVER AN INCH AND A HALF.
FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S AND THEN TEMPS WILL COOL OFF AFTER THE FRONT PASSES WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING IN COOL AIR FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT MOSTLY LOW
TO MID 70S FOR HIGHS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AFTER FRIDAY.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM WEDNESDAY...
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN NEXT 24 HRS: CHANCE OF MVFR OR IFR CIGS NOW
THROUGH MID MORNING... WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
STORMS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN USUAL REGARDING THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS
MORNING. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE SURFACE UP
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS (ABOVE 15 000 FT). CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY IFR FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS... BEFORE THEY RISE TO MVFR NEAR OR
SOON AFTER 13Z THEN TO VFR BY AROUND 16Z... HOWEVER AS THESE LOW
CLOUDS WILL VARY BETWEEN SCT AND BKN... FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE LIKELY
TO WAVER AMONG MVFR... IFR... AND VFR THIS MORNING. AVIATORS SHOULD
REMAIN ALERT FOR THESE CHANGING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL AFFECT RDU/RWI/FAY THROUGH 16Z... BUT VSBYS SHOULD GO
BE MAINLY MVFR IN THESE SHOWERS. AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY AT RDU/RWI BEFORE 14Z. THERE IS A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE DAY...
WITH VERY FEW IF ANY SHOWERS/STORMS AS WE SHOULD BE IN A RELATIVE
LULL PERIOD BETWEEN CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS. A COUPLE OF MODELS HINT AT
MORE STORMS ROLLING OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING
AND POTENTIALLY AFFECTING INT/GSO/RDU IN THE LAST 6-9 HRS OF THE TAF
VALID PERIOD WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS AND GUSTY WINDS...
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF
ANY SUCH SYSTEM TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR. WE SHOULD SEE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AFFECTING RDU/RWI AS A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF CENTRAL NC... WITH LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO NORTHEASTERLY.
LOOKING BEYOND 12Z EARLY THU MORNING... ANY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT
TO VFR THU MORNING... REMAINING VFR THROUGH THU EVENING WITH A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITHIN SHOWERS
AND STORMS FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
620 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY AND STALL
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION
LATE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE
FRIDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 620 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST NEXT 36 HOURS IN
TRYING TO PROVIDE DETAIL REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
MOIST BUT WEAKLY FORCED ATMOSPHERE OVER THE CAROLINAS. ZONAL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE ALBEIT WITH RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBTLE HEIGHT
RISES OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THURSDAY. WEAK LOW
AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL WAVES IN THIS FLOW WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ESPECIALLY IF THE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS TODAY TRIGGERS A STRONGER MCV
WHICH WOULD THEN MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT. THE LARGE SCALE MODELS
HAVE BEEN HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME IN HANDLING THIS SITUATION SO
HAVE A RELIED ON THE HRRR AND THE HIGH RESOLUTION NMM AND WRF
MODELS TO TRY TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS.
2 MAIN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING EARLY THIS MORNING. ONE
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST, ESPECIALLY THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION
AND NORTHERN OUTER BANKS, AND ANOTHER MOVING INTO THE COASTAL
PLAIN. THE HRRR MODEL BRINGS BOTH OF THESE AREAS ACROSS EASTERN
NC TODAY MAINLY THIS MORNING THEN INDICATES A LULL IN THE
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AFTER 16Z. WILL BROADBRUSH THE
FORECAST WITH 30-40% POPS DUE TO INHERENT UNCERTAINTY ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES UNSTABLE AND A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT BEGINS TO DROP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA DURING PEAK HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TODAY
IN THE SOUTHERLY PRE FRONTAL FLOW WITH HIGHS INLAND IN THE LOWER
80S AND LOWER 70S BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...THE BACK DOOR FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH TO
NEAR THE CRYSTAL COAST OVERNIGHT THEN STALL. STILL UNCERTAIN ON
PRECIPITATION DETAILS SO WILL FORECAST 30-50% POPS HIGHEST OUTER
BANKS. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...00Z MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH BACKDOOR FRONT STALLING OVER SRN SECTIONS LATE WED
NIGHT...THEN RETREATING NORTH ON THU. ECWMF AND GFS ALSO IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
BE NEAR COAST SAT MORNING...THUS INCREASED POPS FRI NIGHT AND
DECREASED INLAND SAT.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SFC FRONT EXPECTED TO RETREAT NORTH
DURING THE DAY WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. LACK OF UPR SUPPORT
EXPECTED TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT KEPT 20% POPS WITH
FRONT MOVING BACK NORTH. DID DROP POPS FOR THU NIGHT WITH MODELS
INDICATING PCPN THREAT WEST AND NORTH OF AREA. MOS GDNC CONTINUES
TO HAVE LARGE DIFFERENCES ON HIGH TEMPS WITH GFS COOLER AND NAM
WARMER DUE TO HANDLING OF FRONT. UPDATED PREVIOUS FCST WITH LEAN
TO COOLER GFS...HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 80 SOUTH TO 65-70 NORTH.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VERY WARM TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY AHEAD
OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FRIDAY NIGHT. NO CHANGE TO
PREVIOUS THINKING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY FOR INLAND
SECTIONS AS DECENT INSTABILITY AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WEST-SOUTHWEST
FLOW IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CHC POPS IN AFTERNOON INLAND OF SEA
BREEZE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT MID 80S FOR INLAND SECTIONS.
LATEST MODELS AGREE ON MAIN THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...AND INCREASED POPS TO 60% ALL
ZONES...MAINLY FOR WRN HALF DURING EVENING AND ERN HALF OVERNIGHT.
CONCUR WITH SPC OUTLOOK OF SLIGHT RISK OF SVR WITH SUFFICIENT MID
LVL SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STRONG CONVECTION.
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE SAT MORNING AND HAVE LOWERED POPS
TO INDICATE DRIER TREND. MAX TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGS COOLER THAN
FRIDAY WITH MID 70S INLAND TO LOWER 60S NRN OBX.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG HIGH PRES WILL EXTEND
OVER AREA FROM NORTH SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND GRADUALLY MOVE EAST
SUN NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FCST. HIGH PRES WILL
CONTINUE MOVING OFFSHORE WITH MOIST S TO SW FLOW RETURNING. SLIGHT
CHC POPS FOR SW HALF OF AREA MONDAY AND MON NIGHT...INCREASING TO
20-30% ALL AREAS TUESDAY. MAIN TEMP CHANGE WILL BE MIN TEMPS 10-15
DEGS ABOVE NORMAL MON NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM WEDNESDAY...DIFFICULT FORECAST WITH CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS AND MIXING LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING AT TIMES
THIS MORNING...AND PRECIPITATION APPROACHING THE TAF SITES FROM
THE WEST. THE MOSTLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES
ON AND OFF THROUGH ABOUT 16Z WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. THREAT NOT LOOKING AS WIDESPREAD AS EARLIER
AND SHOULD END BY 14Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF
SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
GUIDANCE IS AGAIN POINTING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS
REDEVELOPING AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING AS THE BL REMAINS SATURATED
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS LOW DUE TO RECENT TENDENCY FOR GUIDANCE TO
OVER FORECAST THESE CONDITIONS. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND
THE BACK DOOR FRONT MAY BE MORE CONDUCIVE TO IFR CONDITIONS THOUGH
SO WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...SOME LOWER CIGS COULD PERSIST THURS
MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL NE FLOW. VFR MAINLY EXPECTED THURS NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...THEN HIGHER THREAT OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT WITH GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED
AS STRONGER FRONT MOVES INTO AREA. GUSTY SW WINDS 15-25 MPH LIKELY
FRIDAY AHEAD OF FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW AVIATION
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH IS
FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS/ALBEMARLE SOUND
TODAY THEN CONTINUE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO THE CENTRAL WATERS/PAMLICO
SOUND WHERE IT WILL STALL. EXPECT WINDS TO VEER FROM SOUTHERLY
THIS MORNING TO SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY THIS AFTERNOON THEN TO NORTH
AND NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST THINKING WITH
WINDS GRADUALLY RETURNING TO S-SW DURING THE DAY THU AS FRONT
RETREATS BACK NORTH. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INDICATE FASTER COLD FRONT
PASSAGE SAT MORNING WITH LATEST MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. STILL
EXPECT STRONGEST WINDS FRI AND FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF FRONT...SW
15-25 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRI
AFTN INTO EARLY SAT. NE SURGE 10-20 KT EXPECTED LATE SAT THROUGH
SUNDAY. ADJUSTED SEAS WITH LATEST NWPS. HEIGHTS MAINLY 3-4 FT
THU...BUILDING TO 4-6 FT FRI-FRI NIGHT...THEN DIMINISHING 2-4 FT
SUNDAY.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JME/JBM
MARINE...JME/JBM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
447 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY AND STALL
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION
LATE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE
FRIDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST NEXT 36 HOURS IN
TRYING TO PROVIDE DETAIL ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE MOIST
BUT WEAKLY FORCED ATMOSPHERE OVER THE CAROLINAS. ZONAL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ALBEIT WITH RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THURSDAY. WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE MID
LEVEL WAVES IN THIS FLOW WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ESPECIALLY IF THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS TODAY TRIGGERS A MCV WHICH WOULD THEN
MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT. THE LARGE SCALE MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME IN HANDLING THIS SITUATION SO HAVE A RELAYED ON THE
HRRR AND THE HIGH RESOLUTION NMM AND WRF MODELS TO TRY TO GET A
BETTER HANDLE ON THIS.
2 MAIN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING EARLY THIS MORNING. ONE
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND ANOTHER MOVING INTO PIEDMONT. THE HRRR
MODEL BRINGS BOTH OF THESE AREAS ACROSS EASTERN NC TODAY MAINLY
THIS MORNING THEN INDICATES A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL BROADBRUSH THE FORECAST WITH 30-40% POPS DUE TO
INHERENT UNCERTAINTY ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES UNSTABLE AND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT BEGINS TO DROP SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TODAY IN THE SOUTHERLY PRE
FRONTAL FLOW WITH HIGHS INLAND IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWER 70S
BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...THE BACK DOOR FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH TO
NEAR THE CRYSTAL COAST THEN STALL. STILL UNCERTAIN ON
PRECIPITATION DETAILS SO WILL FORECAST 30-50% POPS HIGHEST OUTER
BANKS. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...00Z MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH BACKDOOR FRONT STALLING OVER SRN SECTIONS LATE WED
NIGHT...THEN RETREATING NORTH ON THU. ECWMF AND GFS ALSO IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
BE NEAR COAST SAT MORNING...THUS INCREASED POPS FRI NIGHT AND
DECREASED INLAND SAT.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SFC FRONT EXPECTED TO RETREAT NORTH
DURING THE DAY WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. LACK OF UPR SUPPORT
EXPECTED TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT KEPT 20% POPS WITH
FRONT MOVING BACK NORTH. DID DROP POPS FOR THU NIGHT WITH MODELS
INDICATING PCPN THREAT WEST AND NORTH OF AREA. MOS GDNC CONTINUES
TO HAVE LARGE DIFFERENCES ON HIGH TEMPS WITH GFS COOLER AND NAM
WARMER DUE TO HANDLING OF FRONT. UPDATED PREVIOUS FCST WITH LEAN
TO COOLER GFS...HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 80 SOUTH TO 65-70 NORTH.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VERY WARM TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY AHEAD
OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FRIDAY NIGHT. NO CHANGE TO
PREVIOUS THINKING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY FOR INLAND
SECTIONS AS DECENT INSTABILITY AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WEST-SOUTHWEST
FLOW IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CHC POPS IN AFTERNOON INLAND OF SEA
BREEZE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT MID 80S FOR INLAND SECTIONS.
LATEST MODELS AGREE ON MAIN THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...AND INCREASED POPS TO 60% ALL
ZONES...MAINLY FOR WRN HALF DURING EVENING AND ERN HALF OVERNIGHT.
CONCUR WITH SPC OUTLOOK OF SLIGHT RISK OF SVR WITH SUFFICIENT MID
LVL SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STRONG CONVECTION.
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE SAT MORNING AND HAVE LOWERED POPS
TO INDICATE DRIER TREND. MAX TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGS COOLER THAN
FRIDAY WITH MID 70S INLAND TO LOWER 60S NRN OBX.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG HIGH PRES WILL EXTEND
OVER AREA FROM NORTH SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND GRADUALLY MOVE EAST
SUN NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FCST. HIGH PRES WILL
CONTINUE MOVING OFFSHORE WITH MOIST S TO SW FLOW RETURNING. SLIGHT
CHC POPS FOR SW HALF OF AREA MONDAY AND MON NIGHT...INCREASING TO
20-30% ALL AREAS TUESDAY. MAIN TEMP CHANGE WILL BE MIN TEMPS 10-15
DEGS ABOVE NORMAL MON NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM WEDNESDAY...DIFFICULT FORECAST WITH CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS AND MIXING LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING AT
TIMES...AND PRECIPITATION APPROACHING THE TAF SITES FROM THE WEST.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL AFFECT ALL OF THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY KOAJ AND KEWN BUT SHOULD BE
MOSTLY LIGHT WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. OUTSIDE OF THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED A SATURATED BOUNDARY
LAYER WHICH WILL LEAD TO FOG AND OR LOW STRATUS CLOUDS. NEW BERN
HAS DECOUPLED AS HAS RICHLANDS SO THESE AREAS HAVE THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR IFR FOG OVERNIGHT AS THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
KPGV AND KISO MAY REMAIN MIXED. HOWEVER THE HRRR AND NARRE
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING IFR CEILINGS ALL TAF SITES BY 09Z SO
EXPECTING POOR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT EARLY WEDNESDAY FOR AT LEAST
SEVERAL HOURS AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF ANY
SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS. GUIDANCE IS
AGAIN POINTING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING
AGAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE BL REMAINS SATURATED.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...SOME LOWER CIGS COULD PERSIST THURS
MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL NE FLOW. VFR MAINLY EXPECTED THURS NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...THEN HIGHER THREAT OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT WITH GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED
AS STRONGER FRONT MOVES INTO AREA. GUSTY SW WINDS 15-25 MPH LIKELY
FRIDAY AHEAD OF FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW AVIATION
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH IS
FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS/ALBEMARLE SOUND
LATE TODAY THEN CONTINUE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO THE CENTRAL
WATERS/PAMLICO SOUND WHERE IT WILL SATLL. EXPECT WINDS TO VEER
FROM SOUTHERLY THIS MORNING TO SOUTHWEST TO WEST THIS AFTERNOON
THEN TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST THINKING WITH
WINDS GRADUALLY RETURNING TO S-SW DURING THE DAY THU AS FRONT
RETREATS BACK NORTH. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INDICATE FASTER COLD FRONT
PASSAGE SAT MORNING WITH LATEST MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. STILL
EXPECT STRONGEST WINDS FRI AND FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF FRONT...SW
15-25 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRI
AFTN INTO EARLY SAT. NE SURGE 10-20 KT EXPECTED LATE SAT THROUGH
SUNDAY. ADJUSTED SEAS WITH LATEST NWPS. HEIGHTS MAINLY 3-4 FT
THU...BUILDING TO 4-6 FT FRI-FRI NIGHT...THEN DIMINISHING 2-4 FT
SUNDAY.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JME/JBM
MARINE...JME/JBM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
330 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AIR MASS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER
THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP
INTO NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT... THEN
LIFT BACK NORTH LATE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
LATE FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...
TOUGH FORECAST THIS MORNING TRYING TO PINPOINT THE DETAILS OF
EXPECTED CONVECTION. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A PROMINENT COLD
FRONT FROM NRN OK THROUGH NRN MO... WITH A MORE DIFFUSE FRONTAL ZONE
EXTENDING ACROSS IL AND THE OH VALLEY THEN SOUTHEAST THROUGH NRN/ERN
VA. ISOLATED BUT STRONG AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER SC INTO SE NC
EARLIER TONIGHT IS EXITING BUT ADDITIONAL LESS-ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS ARE CLOSE BEHIND... THE DYING REMNANTS OF AN EARLIER
MATURE COMPLEX THAT CROSSED KY LAST EVENING. THIS HAS MANIFESTED
INTO A WEAK MCV THAT CAN BE DISCERNED IN RADAR AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CENTERED OVER WEST CENTRAL VA. THE LAST FEW HRRR MODEL RUNS
REFLECTED BOTH OF THESE FEATURES BETTER THAN THE LARGER-SCALE MODELS
WITH PARAMETERIZED CONVECTION (NOT A SURPRISE)... AND HAVE LARGELY
FOLLOWED THIS SOLUTION FOR THE NEXT 12 HRS OR SO. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS THROUGH MID MORNING... WITH THE BEST CHANCE
SHIFTING TO NRN/ERN CWA NEAR AND SOON AFTER SUNRISE. WE SHOULD THEN
SEE A PERIOD OF RELATIVE SUBSIDENCE FROM ROUGHLY LATE MORNING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON... AS THE VA MCV SHIFTS OFF THE COAST INDUCING
SURFACE LOW FORMATION ALONG THE WEAK FRONTAL ZONE. AS THIS OCCURS...
THE NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW SHOULD HELP DRAW THE
FRONTAL ZONE SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL/NE NC. THE LAST SEVERAL
GFS RUNS HAVE TAKEN THIS FRONT MUCH FURTHER INTO NC THAN THE OTHER
MODEL SOLUTIONS. WHILE THERE IS A CHILLY SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER
QUEBEC NOSING SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES INTO THE NRN
MIDATLANTIC REGION... THIS LOOKS TO BE CENTERED TOO FAR NORTH TO
HAVE MUCH INFLUENCE ON THE FRONT THIS FAR SOUTH. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT
TO NORTHEASTERLY OVER THE NE CWA WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS MOVING
IN LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT... BUT THE COOLING SHOULDN`T BE THAT
EXTREME. WILL FORECAST HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW-MID 80S EXCEPT FOR MID-
UPPER 70S IN THE FAR NE. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE CONVECTION NOW
ALONG THE FRONT OVER KS/MO/IA/IL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ITS RESULTING
MCV TO MOVE ESE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE INTO OUR REGION LATE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. THE GFS HINTS AT THIS... SHOWING SPOTTY MID LEVEL
VORTICITY MAXIMA (LOOKING LIKE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK) MOVING TO THE
CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. IT MAKES SENSE
THAT THIS WOULD TRIGGER CONVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
WHERE MODELS INDICATE MUCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG IN THE 21Z-06Z TIME
FRAME WITH DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS... STILL RATHER
MODEST BUT ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION AS THE COLD POOL TRACKS ESE
THROUGH NRN/ERN NC. WILL SHOW A PERIOD OF LOW POPS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON... FOLLOWED BY A RISE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING... TRENDING DOWN OVERNIGHT AS THIS
PERTURBATION EXITS TO OUR EAST. WITH THE FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO BE
SITTING OVER THE NE CWA OVERNIGHT... WILL HAVE LOWS IN THE 60-65
RANGE EXCEPT FOR MID-UPPER 50S NE. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...
STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CO/KS BORDER TODAY WILL REMAIN
STRONG AS TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT TO SRN WI LATE THU AND NEAR SAULT
STE MARIE BY DAYBREAK FRI. THE FRONTAL ZONE MEANWHILE BY LATE THU
WILL EXTEND ACROSS SRN MI DOWN THROUGH WRN PA/VA THEN EASTWARD ALONG
THE ERN VA/NC BORDER AREA. THE NAM/GFS SHOW DESTABILIZATION THU
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING (THE NAM MORESO THAN THE GFS)
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW CWA SW OF THE FRONT WITH MUCAPE EXCEEDING
1500 J/KG... HOWEVER THE DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR DECREASES TO LESS
THAN 25 KTS... A REFLECTION OF THE DIGGING ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST
(LEADING TO THE STRONG SURFACE LOW) PROMPTING RISING HEIGHTS AND
REDUCED MID LEVEL WINDS OVER THE CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST STATES... AND
THIS SHOULD REDUCE THE PROBABILITY FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
WILL BRING IN CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS... FOCUSED MAINLY
OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA... PEAKING DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S NE TO LOWER 80S SW.
WARM LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE MID 60S... WHICH WILL APPROACH RECORD
HIGH MINIMUMS FOR APRIL 10TH. -GIH
&&
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...
THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE WITH REGARD TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TAKES A BIG TURN FOR THE WORSE BEGINNING
ON MONDAY AS MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY. ABOUT THE ONLY
THING THEY AGREE ON AT THIS POINT IS SOME KIND OF UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST BUT EVEN THE POSITION AND TIMING OF THAT IS IN
QUESTION AT THIS TIME. THE PROBLEMS EARLY NEXT WEEK STEM FROM A
CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TEXAS THAT FUNNELS MOISTURE OUT OF THE
GULF AND OVER THE DEEP SOUTH BUT THERE ARE MASSIVE QUESTIONS IN
TIMING AS THE ECMWF SOLUTION HAS PRECIPITATION REACHING CENTRAL NC
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THE GFS DOESN`T HAVE ANYTHING MEASURABLE
OVER THE CWA UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. THAT QUALIFIES AS AN EXTREMELY
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AND WILL BE HANDLED AS SUCH. THEREFORE WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FROM MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
SHIFTING THE CONVERSATION FROM WHAT WE DON`T KNOW TO MORE OF WHAT WE
DO KNOW REGARDING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ON FRIDAY...SPC STILL HAS AN
AREA OF 15% RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER ALL OF CENTRAL NC. AFTER A
CLOSER LOOK AT THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...STORMS
WILL BE INSTABILITY DRIVEN WITH THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA
MOST LIKELY TO SEE STRONGER STORM ACTIVITY BUT THE POSSIBILITY WILL
REMAIN EVERYWHERE. THE KFAY MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW JUST OVER 1100 J/KG
OF SURFACE BASED CAPE WITH 500 J/KG OCCURRING WITHIN THE HAIL GROWTH
ZONE. THE HAIL THREAT LOOKS BETTER THAN THE WIND THREAT AT THIS TIME
AS SHEAR IS MEAGER...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LEVELS. SOME INVERTED V
SIGNATURES IN THE SOUNDING AND SOME RELATIVE DRYING AT THE 700 MB
LEVEL COULD INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WET MICROBURSTS BUT
OVERALL THE ENVIRONMENT FOR WIND OUTSIDE OF A LARGER HAIL CORE
COLLAPSING IS LESS FAVORABLE AND VERY LOW AMOUNTS OF HELICITY
SUGGEST TORNADOES WILL NOT BE LIKELY EITHER. OVERALL FEELING IS THAT
SOME STRONGER STORMS WILL POP UP FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT ANY SEVERE
WILL BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. WORTH WATCHING TO SEE HOW IT EVOLVES OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CONVECTION SHOULD PRODUCE DECENT QPF VALUES
IN THE RANGE OF A QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. PW VALUES
ARE OVER AN INCH AND A HALF.
FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S AND THEN TEMPS WILL COOL OFF AFTER THE FRONT PASSES WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING IN COOL AIR FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT MOSTLY LOW
TO MID 70S FOR HIGHS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AFTER FRIDAY.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 110 AM WEDNESDAY...
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN NEXT 24 HRS: CHANCE OF MVFR OR IFR CIGS NOW
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED STORMS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN USUAL REGARDING THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS
MORNING. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE SURFACE UP
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS (ABOVE 15 000 FT). FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE
LIKELY TO WAVER AMONG MVFR... IFR... AND VFR THIS MORNING... HOWEVER
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO OCCUR MOST OF THE TIME THROUGH MID MORNING.
AVIATORS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR POCKETS OF SUB-VFR CIGS... AS THEY
ARE LIKELY TO HAPPEN BUT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL AFFECT CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE FIRST 6-9 HRS OF THE TAF VALID
PERIOD... BUT VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY VFR WITH THESE... ONLY
BRIEFLY DROPPING TO MVFR FOR LESS THAN A HALF HOUR AT A TIME. MODELS
HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY WITH RECENT AND CURRENT CONDITIONS HERE AND
UPSTREAM... BUT ALL AGREE ON A HIGH PROBABILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE DAY... WITH VERY FEW IF ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS AS WE SHOULD BE IN A RELATIVE LULL PERIOD BETWEEN
CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS. A COUPLE OF MODELS HINT AT MORE STORMS ROLLING
OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING AND POTENTIALLY
AFFECTING INT/GSO/RDU TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD WITH
BRIEF SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS AND GUSTY WINDS... HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY SUCH SYSTEM TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY THU MORNING... MAY NEED TO INCLUDE A CHANCE
FOR SUB-VFR SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE... WE
SHOULD SEE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOP ESPECIALLY AFFECTING
RDU/RWI AS A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF CENTRAL NC... WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO
NORTHEASTERLY. ANY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR THU MORNING...
REMAINING VFR THROUGH THU EVENING WITH A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE
THU AFTERNOON. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITHIN SHOWERS AND STORMS FRI AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. VFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT LATE FRI
NIGHT THROUGH SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
315 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AIR MASS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER
THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP
INTO NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT... THEN
LIFT BACK NORTH LATE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
LATE FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...
TOUGH FORECAST THIS MORNING TRYING TO PINPOINT THE DETAILS OF
EXPECTED CONVECTION. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A PROMINENT COLD
FRONT FROM NRN OK THROUGH NRN MO... WITH A MORE DIFFUSE FRONTAL ZONE
EXTENDING ACROSS IL AND THE OH VALLEY THEN SOUTHEAST THROUGH NRN/ERN
VA. ISOLATED BUT STRONG AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER SC INTO SE NC
EARLIER TONIGHT IS EXITING BUT ADDITIONAL LESS-ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS ARE CLOSE BEHIND... THE DYING REMNANTS OF AN EARLIER
MATURE COMPLEX THAT CROSSED KY LAST EVENING. THIS HAS MANIFESTED
INTO A WEAK MCV THAT CAN BE DISCERNED IN RADAR AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CENTERED OVER WEST CENTRAL VA. THE LAST FEW HRRR MODEL RUNS
REFLECTED BOTH OF THESE FEATURES BETTER THAN THE LARGER-SCALE MODELS
WITH PARAMETERIZED CONVECTION (NOT A SURPRISE)... AND HAVE LARGELY
FOLLOWED THIS SOLUTION FOR THE NEXT 12 HRS OR SO. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS THROUGH MID MORNING... WITH THE BEST CHANCE
SHIFTING TO NRN/ERN CWA NEAR AND SOON AFTER SUNRISE. WE SHOULD THEN
SEE A PERIOD OF RELATIVE SUBSIDENCE FROM ROUGHLY LATE MORNING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON... AS THE VA MCV SHIFTS OFF THE COAST INDUCING
SURFACE LOW FORMATION ALONG THE WEAK FRONTAL ZONE. AS THIS OCCURS...
THE NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW SHOULD HELP DRAW THE
FRONTAL ZONE SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL/NE NC. THE LAST SEVERAL
GFS RUNS HAVE TAKEN THIS FRONT MUCH FURTHER INTO NC THAN THE OTHER
MODEL SOLUTIONS. WHILE THERE IS A CHILLY SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER
QUEBEC NOSING SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES INTO THE NRN
MIDATLANTIC REGION... THIS LOOKS TO BE CENTERED TOO FAR NORTH TO
HAVE MUCH INFLUENCE ON THE FRONT THIS FAR SOUTH. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT
TO NORTHEASTERLY OVER THE NE CWA WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS MOVING
IN LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT... BUT THE COOLING SHOULDN`T BE THAT
EXTREME. WILL FORECAST HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW-MID 80S EXCEPT FOR MID-
UPPER 70S IN THE FAR NE. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE CONVECTION NOW
ALONG THE FRONT OVER KS/MO/IA/IL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ITS RESULTING
MCV TO MOVE ESE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE INTO OUR REGION LATE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. THE GFS HINTS AT THIS... SHOWING SPOTTY MID LEVEL
VORTICITY MAXIMA (LOOKING LIKE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK) MOVING TO THE
CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. IT MAKES SENSE
THAT THIS WOULD TRIGGER CONVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
WHERE MODELS INDICATE MUCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG IN THE 21Z-06Z TIME
FRAME WITH DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS... STILL RATHER
MODEST BUT ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION AS THE COLD POOL TRACKS ESE
THROUGH NRN/ERN NC. WILL SHOW A PERIOD OF LOW POPS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON... FOLLOWED BY A RISE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING... TRENDING DOWN OVERNIGHT AS THIS
PERTURBATION EXITS TO OUR EAST. WITH THE FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO BE
SITTING OVER THE NE CWA OVERNIGHT... WILL HAVE LOWS IN THE 60-65
RANGE EXCEPT FOR MID-UPPER 50S NE. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM TUESDAY...
THE WEST-CENTRAL UNITED STATES TROUGH AND UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC STATES WILL GENERATE WARMTH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE MID/UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST AND BRING AN ACTIVE
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS LATE FRIDAY. HOWEVER... THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE IN A WEAKENING MODE AS IT PUSHES EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS RESULTING IN LESS IN THE WAY OF A SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT OVER OUR REGION AS OPPOSED TO WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY LATE AND THIS WILL DECREASE THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A RETURN TO STORMY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS YET ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PULLING GULF
MOISTURE AND A WARM FRONT INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAYS WITH HIGHS 80-85 AND
LOWS IN THE 60S. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS... MAINLY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST
SATURDAY MORNING... OTHERWISE DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
LATER SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LOWS IN THE 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER O
MID 70S. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AGAIN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. -BV
&&
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...
THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE WITH REGARD TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TAKES A BIG TURN FOR THE WORSE BEGINNING
ON MONDAY AS MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY. ABOUT THE ONLY
THING THEY AGREE ON AT THIS POINT IS SOME KIND OF UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST BUT EVEN THE POSITION AND TIMING OF THAT IS IN
QUESTION AT THIS TIME. THE PROBLEMS EARLY NEXT WEEK STEM FROM A
CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TEXAS THAT FUNNELS MOISTURE OUT OF THE
GULF AND OVER THE DEEP SOUTH BUT THERE ARE MASSIVE QUESTIONS IN
TIMING AS THE ECMWF SOLUTION HAS PRECIPITATION REACHING CENTRAL NC
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THE GFS DOESN`T HAVE ANYTHING MEASURABLE
OVER THE CWA UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. THAT QUALIFIES AS AN EXTREMELY
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AND WILL BE HANDLED AS SUCH. THEREFORE WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FROM MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
SHIFTING THE CONVERSATION FROM WHAT WE DON`T KNOW TO MORE OF WHAT WE
DO KNOW REGARDING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ON FRIDAY...SPC STILL HAS AN
AREA OF 15% RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER ALL OF CENTRAL NC. AFTER A
CLOSER LOOK AT THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...STORMS
WILL BE INSTABILITY DRIVEN WITH THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA
MOST LIKELY TO SEE STRONGER STORM ACTIVITY BUT THE POSSIBILITY WILL
REMAIN EVERYWHERE. THE KFAY MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW JUST OVER 1100 J/KG
OF SURFACE BASED CAPE WITH 500 J/KG OCCURRING WITHIN THE HAIL GROWTH
ZONE. THE HAIL THREAT LOOKS BETTER THAN THE WIND THREAT AT THIS TIME
AS SHEAR IS MEAGER...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LEVELS. SOME INVERTED V
SIGNATURES IN THE SOUNDING AND SOME RELATIVE DRYING AT THE 700 MB
LEVEL COULD INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WET MICROBURSTS BUT
OVERALL THE ENVIRONMENT FOR WIND OUTSIDE OF A LARGER HAIL CORE
COLLAPSING IS LESS FAVORABLE AND VERY LOW AMOUNTS OF HELICITY
SUGGEST TORNADOES WILL NOT BE LIKELY EITHER. OVERALL FEELING IS THAT
SOME STRONGER STORMS WILL POP UP FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT ANY SEVERE
WILL BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. WORTH WATCHING TO SEE HOW IT EVOLVES OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CONVECTION SHOULD PRODUCE DECENT QPF VALUES
IN THE RANGE OF A QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. PW VALUES
ARE OVER AN INCH AND A HALF.
FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S AND THEN TEMPS WILL COOL OFF AFTER THE FRONT PASSES WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING IN COOL AIR FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT MOSTLY LOW
TO MID 70S FOR HIGHS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AFTER FRIDAY.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 110 AM WEDNESDAY...
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN NEXT 24 HRS: CHANCE OF MVFR OR IFR CIGS NOW
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED STORMS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN USUAL REGARDING THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS
MORNING. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE SURFACE UP
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS (ABOVE 15 000 FT). FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE
LIKELY TO WAVER AMONG MVFR... IFR... AND VFR THIS MORNING... HOWEVER
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO OCCUR MOST OF THE TIME THROUGH MID MORNING.
AVIATORS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR POCKETS OF SUB-VFR CIGS... AS THEY
ARE LIKELY TO HAPPEN BUT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL AFFECT CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE FIRST 6-9 HRS OF THE TAF VALID
PERIOD... BUT VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY VFR WITH THESE... ONLY
BRIEFLY DROPPING TO MVFR FOR LESS THAN A HALF HOUR AT A TIME. MODELS
HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY WITH RECENT AND CURRENT CONDITIONS HERE AND
UPSTREAM... BUT ALL AGREE ON A HIGH PROBABILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE DAY... WITH VERY FEW IF ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS AS WE SHOULD BE IN A RELATIVE LULL PERIOD BETWEEN
CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS. A COUPLE OF MODELS HINT AT MORE STORMS ROLLING
OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING AND POTENTIALLY
AFFECTING INT/GSO/RDU TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD WITH
BRIEF SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS AND GUSTY WINDS... HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY SUCH SYSTEM TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY THU MORNING... MAY NEED TO INCLUDE A CHANCE
FOR SUB-VFR SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE... WE
SHOULD SEE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOP ESPECIALLY AFFECTING
RDU/RWI AS A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF CENTRAL NC... WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO
NORTHEASTERLY. ANY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR THU MORNING...
REMAINING VFR THROUGH THU EVENING WITH A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE
THU AFTERNOON. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITHIN SHOWERS AND STORMS FRI AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. VFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT LATE FRI
NIGHT THROUGH SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1250 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND STALL
OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN
NC SATURDAY THEN STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM WEDNESDAY...NORTHERN FRINGE OF PRECIPITATION AREA
OVER SOUTH CAROLINA EXTENDS NORTH INTO OUR COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES
LATE TONIGHT. BASED ON TRENDS IN THE RADAR WITH ACTIVITY HOLDING
TOGETHER AND LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN WHICH TAKES THE PRECIPITATION
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS HAVE
DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY
70 CORRIDOR WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES
WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS
ENHANCING PRECIPITATION AS THEY CROSS THE REGION. MILD TEMPS
EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM TUESDAY...CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST INDICATING A WEAK
BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHING S INTO NERN SXNS LATE WED. EXPECT THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE LIFT AND INSTABILITY FOR SCT SHRA/TSRA
AWAY FROM THE COAST DURING MAX HEATING. TEMPS WARM FROM THE LOWER
80S INLAND TO LOWER 70S COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM TUESDAY...SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE 12Z
GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH INTO
EASTERN NC WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEAK ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WED NIGHT. GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH SOUTHERN ZONES AND HAVE INDICATED THIS TREND IN WINDS
FORECAST. MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND KEPT MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN
ZONES/COAST THURSDAY DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY NOTED IN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS/SREF PLUMES. WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL EVOLVE ACROSS
AREA THURSDAY AS THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE CWA.
MORE CONFIDENT WITH WARMER TEMPS THURSDAY AS THE FRONT REMAINS
VERY WEAK EARLY, THEN LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY
ALLOWING FOR AMPLE INSOLATION. THIS SHOULD AID IN DESTABILIZING
THE ATMOSPHERE THOUGH SHEAR REMAINS THE LIMITING FACTOR.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, SW FLOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST
AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD STAY MOSTLY DRY. NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
THINKING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY FOR INLAND SECTIONS
AS DECENT INSTABILITY AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW IS
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CHC POPS IN AFTERNOON INLAND OF SEA BREEZE. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT MID 80S FOR INLAND SECTIONS.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AHEAD OF FRONT FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT WITH FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH AREA SAT MIDDAY.
DROPPED POPS SAT NIGHT WITH MODELS INDICATING FRONT S AND E OF
AREA. MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS FRI AND WARM SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, HIGHS IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO 60S ALONG THE COAST.
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, MODELS INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS SUN AND SUN
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE AREA FROM THE DELMARVA
REGION. HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE MON LEADING TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS EASTERN NC. SOME DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR IN THE
EXTENDED GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS MUCH SLOWER WITH A FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT, WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES A
WEAK BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPS FOR
THE WEEKEND INTO TUESDAY WILL BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM WEDNESDAY...DIFFICULT FORECAST WITH CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS AND MIXING LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING AT
TIMES...AND PRECIPITATION APPROACHING THE TAF SITES FROM THE WEST.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL AFFECT ALL OF THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY KOAJ AND KEWN BUT SHOULD BE
MOSTLY LIGHT WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. OUTSIDE OF THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED A SATURATED BOUNDARY
LAYER WHICH WILL LEAD TO FOG AND OR LOW STRATUS CLOUDS. NEW BERN
HAS DECOUPLED AS HAS RICHLANDS SO THESE AREAS HAVE THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR IFR FOG OVERNIGHT AS THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
KPGV AND KISO MAY REMAIN MIXED. HOWEVER THE HRRR AND NARRE
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING IFR CEILINGS ALL TAF SITES BY 09Z SO
EXPECTING POOR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT EARLY WEDNESDAY FOR AT LEAST
SEVERAL HOURS AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF ANY
SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS. GUIDANCE IS
AGAIN POINTING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING
AGAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE BL REMAINS SATURATED.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 PM TUESDAY...SOME LOWER CIGS COULD PERSIST THURS
MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL NE FLOW. VFR MAINLY EXPECTED THURS NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...THEN HIGHER THREAT OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT WITH GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED AS
STRONGER FRONT MOVES INTO AREA. GUSTY SW WINDS 15-25 MPH LIKELY
FRIDAY AHEAD OF FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW AVIATION
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING.
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND WEST INTO THE NC
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. S-SW FLOW 5 TO 15 KT WITH SEAS MAINLY 2-4
FT. SW WINDS 10-15 KT MOST OF THE DAY ON WED EXCEPT FOR THE NRN
WATERS WHERE A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES INTO THE NRN COASTAL WATERS
LATE. WINDS SHIFT TO N ACROSS THE NRN WATERS AROUND 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT ON WED.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 PM TUESDAY...WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE
EASTERN NC WATERS WED EVENING INTO WED NIGHT, WITH FRONT EXPECTED
TO RETURN NORTH THURS. WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS WITH THIS
FRONT. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED FRI AND FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF
STRONGER COLD FRONT, SW 15-25 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FRI NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. NE SURGE 10-20 KT
EXPECTED LATE SAT THROUGH SUNDAY. ADJUSTED SEAS WITH LATEST NWPS.
HEIGHTS MAINLY 3-4 FT WED-THURS, BUILDING TO 4-6 FT FRI-SAT THEN
DIMINISHING 2-4 FT SUNDAY.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC/JME/BTC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JAC/JME/BTC/DAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
949 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
PRETTY STRONG SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DIG TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN
CWA AND A BIT OF RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THAT AREA. MODELS DO
NOT REALLY KICK IN THE HIGHER QPF VALUES UNTIL THE 06 TO 09Z TIME
FRAME...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN CANADIAN RADAR. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA LATER
TONIGHT. THE NAM AND RAP DROP 3-4 INCHES OF SNOW IN SPOTS...BUT
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE LOWEST PART OF THE COLUMN WILL BE
STILL ABOVE ZERO SO THINK THAT THE ACCUMULATIONS ARE OVERDONE.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A RAIN SNOW MIX BUT HAVE FAIRLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS FOR NOW AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW TEMPERATURES
RESPOND AS THE SYSTEM DIGS DOWN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
TWEAKED UP WINDS A BIT THIS EVENING AS IT HAS BECOME RATHER GUSTY
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. NOT MUCH FROM THE RADAR
RETURNS IN NORTHWESTERN MN HAS BEEN REACHING THE GROUND YET...SO
WILL KEEP POPS FAIRLY LOW UNTIL THE MAIN UPPER LOW COMES DOWN
LATER TONIGHT. THE RAP HAS BEEN SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
FZRA IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM
OTHER MODELS HAVE THE COLUMN COOLING JUST AS FAST AS SFC TEMPS AND
KEEP MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX. FOR NOW WILL KEEP ANY FREEZING
PRECIP OUT BUT WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THINGS AS FURTHER MODEL
RUNS TRICKLE IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
UPPER LOW FORECASTED BY ALL MODELS TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD JUST
EAST OF THE VALLEY TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE LIKELY ENOUGH
FORCING AND MOISTURE FOR ISOLD SHOWERS. THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE FORCING...WHERE THE
P-TYPE SHOULD BE MOSTLY SNOW...WITH AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH.
HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...LEADING TO NO/MINIMAL IMPACTS. NOT MUCH CHANCE TO EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...STRONGER WAVE IN MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW
APPROACHES THE REGION ON SATURDAY...MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY.
MODELS INDICATE THAT STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE NORTHWARD FOR AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE SAT NIGHT...AT LEAST EAST OF THE VALLEY. INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH POCKETS OF STRONGER 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BRING THUNDER CHANCES. INSTABILITY IS WEAK...AND MODELS INDICATE
COVERAGE ISOLD-SCT...BUT THERE ARE ENOUGH SIGNALS TO CONTINUE THE
THUNDER MENTION. SHOWERS QUICKLY MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY. WINDY
CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY ADVISORY CRITERIA...LIKELY ON SUNDAY (DEEP
MIX LAYER WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND AVERAGE SPEEDS AROUND 35
KNOTS). THIS COULD ALSO BE A POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP IN THE LONG
TERM. ALTHOUGH LONG TERM MODELS HAVE TYPICAL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF A SYSTEM 5 TO 6 DAYS OUT...THEY ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH A DECENT WARMUP INTO THE 70S FOLLOWED BY A MID
PLAINS CYCLONE DEVELOPING AND WELCOMING SOME WELL NEEDED MOISTURE
TO THE REGION. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS OF
PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDER AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH. THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IS SHOWING THE BEST
AGREEMENT FOR PRECIPITATION AND PLANS TO CHANGE THE CHANCE POPS IN
FOR DAYS 5 AND 6.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
CIGS HAVE ALL BE VFR AS THERE HAS BEEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL
CU AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE WINDS HAVE BECOME
QUITE STRONG AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SO BUMPED UP SPEEDS TO 15
TO 20 SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS AT TIMES. SOME MVFR CIGS
WILL MOVE INTO KTVF AND KBJI LATER TONIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW
DIGS DOWN INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. WILL KEEP THE SITES FURTHER WEST VFR AND DRY. ALL SITES
SHOULD BE VFR BY MID MORNING TOMORROW AND WINDS SHOUL BEGIN TO
SETTLE DOWN.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
934 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
FOR LATE EVENING UPDATE HAVE DROPPED CLOUD COVER DOWN QUITE A BIT
WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. ONLY CONCERN WITH
CLOUD COVER IS FOR LATER TONIGHT AS SOME LOW CLOUDS TO THE WEST OF
LAKE MANITOBA ARE TRYING TO SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTHWARD. THIS MAY
GRAZE PARTS OF FAR NORTH CENTRAL LATE TONIGHT. ONLY OTHER CHANGE
TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ADD SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
PART OF THE STATE THAT RECEIVED ACCUMULATING SNOW LAST NIGHT. WITH
TODAYS MELTING...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE AS WINDS
ARE GOING CALM AND TEMPERATURE CONTINUES TO DROP. UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS STILL ON TRACK TO DIMINISH BY
AROUND SUNSET. OTHERWISE...A QUIET EVENING IS EXPECTED AS SKIES
CLEAR UP AND ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS COME TO AN END LATER THIS
EVENING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE A
QUIET TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
CURRENTLY...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND A STRONG S/WV MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. LARGE CU FIELD DEVELOPING AS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW SHOWERS POPPING UP WITHIN THE
CU AS THE HRRR AND 4KM WRF ADVERTISED. DOUBTFUL MUCH WILL REACH
THE GROUND BUT WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST NOW THROUGH
03Z. WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30KTS AS WE MIX TO AROUND 700MB AND
SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND SUNDOWN...THEN DISSIPATE QUICKLY.
WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE SHOWER ACTIVITY...AIDED WITH
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING BENEATH THE CLOUD BASES AS PRECIPITATION
FALLS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT
CLEARING THE SKY. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES SOUTH AND EAST FRIDAY
ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW/WAA INTO THE REGION. DECENT DAY FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND A RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM INCLUDE STRONG AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY - WITH POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES - AND AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH SETTING UP FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE AREA TO THE EAST
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND APPROACHES
NORTH DAKOTA. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPANDS
EASTWARD AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. MEANWHILE A SURFACE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
SATURDAY NIGHT: UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REACHES NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF AND
ALONG AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST.
SUNDAY: THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY...AND
65 TO 75 TUESDAY.
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EMERGES IN
THE WESTERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...CROSSING THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE DURING THIS TIME...WITH
HIGHS 50 TO 60 WEDNESDAY...AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET THIS
EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
SUNDAY: STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH
POSSIBLE. HIGHS OF 55 TO 60 EXPECTED...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT SOUTHWEST TO AROUND 25 PERCENT
NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH. RECENT RAIN AND SNOWFALL OVER THE REGION IS
NOTED...AND WEATHER DORMANT GRASSES WILL HAVE TIME TO DRY OUT IS THE
MAIN QUESTION.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JJS
FIRE WEATHER...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
644 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
TWEAKED UP WINDS A BIT THIS EVENING AS IT HAS BECOME RATHER GUSTY
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. NOT MUCH FROM THE RADAR
RETURNS IN NORTHWESTERN MN HAS BEEN REACHING THE GROUND YET...SO
WILL KEEP POPS FAIRLY LOW UNTIL THE MAIN UPPER LOW COMES DOWN
LATER TONIGHT. THE RAP HAS BEEN SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
FZRA IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM
OTHER MODELS HAVE THE COLUMN COOLING JUST AS FAST AS SFC TEMPS AND
KEEP MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX. FOR NOW WILL KEEP ANY FREEZING
PRECIP OUT BUT WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THINGS AS FURTHER MODEL
RUNS TRICKLE IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
UPPER LOW FORECASTED BY ALL MODELS TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD JUST
EAST OF THE VALLEY TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE LIKELY ENOUGH
FORCING AND MOISTURE FOR ISOLD SHOWERS. THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE FORCING...WHERE THE
P-TYPE SHOULD BE MOSTLY SNOW...WITH AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH.
HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...LEADING TO NO/MINIMAL IMPACTS. NOT MUCH CHANCE TO EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...STRONGER WAVE IN MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW
APPROACHES THE REGION ON SATURDAY...MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY.
MODELS INDICATE THAT STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE NORTHWARD FOR AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE SAT NIGHT...AT LEAST EAST OF THE VALLEY. INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH POCKETS OF STRONGER 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BRING THUNDER CHANCES. INSTABILITY IS WEAK...AND MODELS INDICATE
COVERAGE ISOLD-SCT...BUT THERE ARE ENOUGH SIGNALS TO CONTINUE THE
THUNDER MENTION. SHOWERS QUICKLY MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY. WINDY
CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY ADVISORY CRITERIA...LIKELY ON SUNDAY (DEEP
MIX LAYER WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND AVERAGE SPEEDS AROUND 35
KNOTS). THIS COULD ALSO BE A POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP IN THE LONG
TERM. ALTHOUGH LONG TERM MODELS HAVE TYPICAL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF A SYSTEM 5 TO 6 DAYS OUT...THEY ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH A DECENT WARMUP INTO THE 70S FOLLOWED BY A MID
PLAINS CYCLONE DEVELOPING AND WELCOMING SOME WELL NEEDED MOISTURE
TO THE REGION. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS OF
PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDER AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH. THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IS SHOWING THE BEST
AGREEMENT FOR PRECIPITATION AND PLANS TO CHANGE THE CHANCE POPS IN
FOR DAYS 5 AND 6.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
CIGS HAVE ALL BE VFR AS THERE HAS BEEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL
CU AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE WINDS HAVE BECOME
QUITE STRONG AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SO BUMPED UP SPEEDS TO 15
TO 20 SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS AT TIMES. SOME MVFR CIGS
WILL MOVE INTO KTVF AND KBJI LATER TONIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW
DIGS DOWN INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. WILL KEEP THE SITES FURTHER WEST VFR AND DRY. ALL SITES
SHOULD BE VFR BY MID MORNING TOMORROW AND WINDS SHOUL BEGIN TO
SETTLE DOWN.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
632 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS STILL ON TRACK TO DIMINISH BY
AROUND SUNSET. OTHERWISE...A QUIET EVENING IS EXPECTED AS SKIES
CLEAR UP AND ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS COME TO AN END LATER THIS
EVENING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE A
QUIET TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
CURRENTLY...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND A STRONG S/WV MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. LARGE CU FIELD DEVELOPING AS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW SHOWERS POPPING UP WITHIN THE
CU AS THE HRRR AND 4KM WRF ADVERTISED. DOUBTFUL MUCH WILL REACH
THE GROUND BUT WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST NOW THROUGH
03Z. WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30KTS AS WE MIX TO AROUND 700MB AND
SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND SUNDOWN...THEN DISSIPATE QUICKLY.
WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE SHOWER ACTIVITY...AIDED WITH
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING BENEATH THE CLOUD BASES AS PRECIPITATION
FALLS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT
CLEARING THE SKY. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES SOUTH AND EAST FRIDAY
ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW/WAA INTO THE REGION. DECENT DAY FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND A RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM INCLUDE STRONG AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY - WITH POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES - AND AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH SETTING UP FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE AREA TO THE EAST
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND APPROACHES
NORTH DAKOTA. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPANDS
EASTWARD AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. MEANWHILE A SURFACE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
SATURDAY NIGHT: UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REACHES NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF AND
ALONG AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST.
SUNDAY: THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY...AND
65 TO 75 TUESDAY.
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EMERGES IN
THE WESTERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...CROSSING THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE DURING THIS TIME...WITH
HIGHS 50 TO 60 WEDNESDAY...AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET THIS
EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
SUNDAY: STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH
POSSIBLE. HIGHS OF 55 TO 60 EXPECTED...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT SOUTHWEST TO AROUND 25 PERCENT
NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH. RECENT RAIN AND SNOWFALL OVER THE REGION IS
NOTED...AND WEATHER DORMANT GRASSES WILL HAVE TIME TO DRY OUT IS THE
MAIN QUESTION.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JJS
FIRE WEATHER...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1158 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2015
INCLUDED A BIT OF MIXED PRECIP IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS
PRECIP WINDS DOWN. A FEW SPOTS HAVE REPORTED SOME SLEET. SHOULD
NOT LAST TOO MUCH LONGER.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2015
PRECIP CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM LAKE OF THE WOODS DOWN IN A
NARROWING BAND TOWARDS FARGO. THE PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND ADJUSTED GRIDS TO REFLECT THE
RADAR TRENDS AND RAP/HRRR WHICH SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
PRECIP. THE 21Z SREF HAS BACKED OFF ON THE VERY HIGH PROBABILITIES
OF LOW VISIBILITY IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...BUT THE RAP AND
HRRR STILL HAVE SOME FOG FORMATION. A FEW SPOTS IN THE JAMES AND
SHEYENNE VALLEYS HAVE SEEN DROPS IN VISIBILITY SO WILL KEEP THE
PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG FORMATION FOR NOW BUT AT THIS POINT DO NOT
THINK WE WILL GET A LOT OF SUPER DENSE FOG.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2015
TWEAKED POPS FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...THINK THAT THE PRECIP
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND
WILL BE MOSTLY IN WESTERN MINNESOTA BY LATE EVENING. REPORTS HAVE
1 TO 2 INCHES MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...SO WILL KEEP THE
1-3 INCH ACCUMULATIONS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 THAT WE HAVE GOING. SREF
PROBABILITIES AND HRRR VIS SHOW SOME FOG IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN
TOWARDS MORNING. BUMPED UP MENTION TO AREAS OF FOG AND WILL KEEP
AN EYE ON DENSITY FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2015
CHALLENGES CENTER AROUND PRECIP AND PRECIP TYPE THROUGH THU...THEN
TEMPS. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT THROUGH
FRIDAY...LEADING TO SOME INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...THE BAND OF PRECIP
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE IS STRONG OMEGA/WAA IN
THE MID LEVELS THAT SHOULD TARGET AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF US
HIGHWAY 2 THROUGH 6Z. EXPECT MOST SNOW IN THE FAR NORTH WITH A MIX
OF RAIN/SNOW POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH AND PROBABLY JUST RAIN IN THE
SOUTH. THERE COULD BE AN INCH OR 2 OF SNOW IN THE NORTH THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME SLICK SPOTS IF SNOW RATES BECOME HIGH
ENOUGH AND AFTER DARK. TEMPS WON/T FALL TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL OF LOW CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME PATCHY FOG LATE IN THE
WEST. FOR NOW WON/T MENTION FOG...BUT POTENTIAL WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
FOR WED...IT SHOULD BE DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WITH THE THREAT
FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP MOVING INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH TOWARDS 00Z
THU. TEMPS SHOULD WARM A BIT FROM TODAY...AND HINGE LARGELY ON IF
THERE IS ANY SUNSHINE.
FOR WED NIGHT...THE COLUMN WILL SATURATE AS A LARGE STORM SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT SOME RAIN INITIALLY IN THE
SOUTH WITH PRECIP POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SOME SNOW FURTHER NORTH
OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING HEAVY PRECIP RATES WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMS EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2015
FOR THURSDAY...ANY PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST FA BY
18Z. TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT FROM WED WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED.
ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO THU.
THERE WILL BE SOME COOL AIR ALOFT IN THE FAR NORTHEAST...AND CAN/T
RULE OUT A SPRINKLE...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP IT DRY.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WILL START OFF THE PERIOD WITH
RIDGING AT 500MB AND THUS MILD TEMPS FOR SAT/SUN. THE 12Z GFS SHOWS
A LITTLE PREFRONTAL PCPN ACROSS THE FA AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE DRY. THINK PCPN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THRU SUNDAY/SUN NIGHT. SHOULD STILL
BE WARM ENOUGH THAT THIS PCPN WILL FALL AS RAIN. MORE UNCERTAINTY
ENTERS THE FORECAST BY MON INTO TUE WITH THE 12Z GFS ESSENTIALLY
DRY. ECMWF SHOWS A LITTLE LIGHT PCPN BUT CONFIDENCE PRETTY LOW AT
THIS POINT. WILL KEEP THE LOW GUIDANCE PCPN CHANCES ON MONDAY BUT
THINK THAT MAY BE OVERDONE. SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER MON/TUE BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT BUT TEMPS STILL LOOK TO BE WARMER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2015
KDVL HAS ALREADY DROPPED BELOW IFR...EVERYONE ELSE IS CURRENTLY
MVFR. CIGS SHOULD START TO DROP DOWN A BIT MORE IN THE VALLEY AND
SOME VIS AROUND 2-5SM IS POSSIBLE. HAVE KDVL GOING DOWN TO 1SM OR
SO EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID MORNING AND
THEN VFR BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
829 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS WANING TONIGHT. ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHICH CROSSES MIDDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. COLD FRONT CROSSES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
800 PM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK SAVE FOR WET BULB ADJUSTMENTS. WX QUIETING DOWN UNTIL
THE MAIN PRE FRONTAL CONVECTION SHOWS UP EARLY FRI MORNING.
PREV DISCN...
YET ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST...HOWEVER THE
MEAN FLOW TODAY LOOKS TO KEEP THE STRONGEST STORMS TO OUR WEST...OR
JUST CLIPPING THE WESTERN CWA. THE HIGHEST ML CAPE REMAINS WEST OF
CWA...AND WOULD EXPECT STRONGEST STORMS TO STICK CLOSER TO THIS. WE
ARE STILL FIRMLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR HOWEVER WITH CONVECTION
POPPING UP ACROSS WV SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN KENTUCKY...SO WILL
STILL HAVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DRIFTING NE ACROSS FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH. THINK THE
BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
WEST OF FORECAST AREA. IN CWA BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE IN THE WESTERN
THIRD OF CWA...ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. USED THE HRRR TO TIME THE BEST POPS...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS TOUGH TO GET EXACT. LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW IS
GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...20-30KTS AROUND 925 MB...UP TO
50-60KTS AT 500MB. THIS WILL KEEP THINGS MOVING WHICH SHOULD HELP
WITH WATER CONCERNS. MAIN CONCERN WATER-WISE WILL BE TRAINING
CELLS...ESPECIALLY ALONG ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT LINGER PARALLEL
TO THE FLOW. NO REASON TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
IN THE WETTER AREAS...THAT WERE HIT LAST NIGHT BY HEAVY RAIN...IT
WOULD LIKELY ONLY TAKE 1-1.5 INCHES IN 3 HOURS OR LESS TO START
CAUSING PROBLEMS AGAIN...WHILE AREAS THAT HAVE NOT RECEIVED AS MUCH
RAIN OVER THE LAST DAY OR TWO IT WOULD TAKE 1.5-2 IN 3 HOURS.
TRIED TO SHOW A BREAK LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...AS
CONVECTION FROM THIS AFTERNOON EXITS TO THE NE...AND A COLD FRONT
FINALLY APPROACHES FROM THE WNW. STILL HAVE ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS MENTIONED THROUGH THE NIGHT...AS WE REMAIN IN THE
WARM SECTOR.
COLD FRONT ARRIVES TO WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY MORNING. GFS/ECMWF ARE
FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TIMING WITH THE FRONT...WHILE NAM LAGS BEHIND A
BIT. DID NOT CHANGE PREVIOUS FORECAST TIMING A WHOLE LOT...BUT DID
INCREASE POPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT FORECAST OF A DRY AND MILD WEEKEND CONTINUES ONT RACK...AS
MODELS VERY CONSISTENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE OHIO
VALLEY. LOOK FOR NEAR SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BUT CHILLY
NIGHTS WITH A LARGE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS DEPICT ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MEANDERING BACK AND FORTH ACROSS
OUR REGION FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE SPECIFIC DETAILS MAY BE
DIFFERENT FOR EACH SYSTEM THAT RUNS ALONG THIS FRONT...THE GENERAL
SCENARIO IS FOR WARM...MOIST AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE
TO PRESENT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANYTIME FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AT EKN AT 00Z MOVED QUICKLY OFF TO THE E.
ANOTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MOVING NE THROUGH THE POINT PLEASANT
AREA WILL PASS JUST S OF PKB 0040Z.
THERE MAY BE ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING IN
THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE...ALLOWING FOR A QUIET OVERNIGHT.
THAT REPRIEVE WILL NOT LAST LONG THOUGH. A COLD FRONT CHARGING
THROUGH IL THIS EVENING WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FRI MORNING. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THE STORMS CAN BE HEAVY AND
STRONG...THEY ARE IN GENERAL NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AS THOSE THIS
PAST AFTERNOON AND EVENING WERE.
THE FRONT WILL CROSS LATE MORNING AND MIDDAY FRIDAY...FOLLOWED Y
BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND THEN VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
ANOTHER MINOR DETAIL...AN MVFR STRATOCU DECK MAY APPROACH BKW FROM
THE GREENBRIER VALLEY FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF THE FLOW
THERE VEERS FURTHER THAN 180.
SFC FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE S TO SW OVERNIGHT...BECOMING GUSTY TOWARD
FRI MORNING. STRONG AND GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY W BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE.
MODERATE TO STRONG SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME MODERATE W
BEHIND THE FRONT FRI AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS/STORMS COULD
VARY. MVFR STRATOCU DECK MAY OR MAY NOT MAKE IT INTO BKW OVERNIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 04/10/15
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M H H H M
EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-013-
014-017-019-020.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR WVZ015-016-018-
024>032-037>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
076-083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
749 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
DROP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATED FORECAST TO ALLOW FOR A LITTLE SUNSHINE IN NW OHIO. THE
LOCAL AREA IS CURRENTLY PRETTY QUIET. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF
CONVECTION NEAR CINCINNATI HOLDS TOGETHER. OTHER STORMS COULD ALSO
DEVELOP THIS EVENING IN THE WEST BUT EXPECTED THE BRUNT OF THE
PRECIP TONIGHT TO OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
PREVIOUS...USED A MIX OF THE HRRR AND SREF FOR TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO SHIFTING NORTHEAST
QUICKLY AND IS NOW MAINLY IN NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA. ANOTHER AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL. NOT A LOT OCCURRING
IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH DO EXPECT SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP/MOVE IN. THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WILL
SHIFT HIGH POPS NORTH OF THE AREA FOR A SHORT WHILE DROPPING MOST
TO CHANCE. AFTER MIDNIGHT COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
WILL HAVE CAT POPS COMING BACK FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND THEN WILL
ATTEMPT TO MOVE THIS EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHILE
ALSO MOVING DRYING IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY MORNING 12Z THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF KCLE WITH
DRYING MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WILL HANG ONTO A CHANCE OF THUNDER
EAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING BUT EXPECT PRECIP TO
END BY LATE MORNING. WILL ALLOW FOR SS TO BREAK THROUGH DURING THE
DAY BUT AM STILL A BIT SKEPTICAL GIVEN LOW LEVEL RH REMAINING
ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER BIG CONCERN FOR FRIDAY WILL BE WINDS.
850MB FLOW INCREASES TO 50 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH
40-45 KNOTS AT 925MB. THIS CONTINUES POST COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME
IT DOESNT LOOK LIKE WARNING LEVELS WILL BE REACHED BUT COULD
REQUIRE A WIND ADVISORY. IF THIS CONTINUES WILL LIKELY ISSUE ON
THE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT FORECAST PACKAGE. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVING
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL
BRING CLOUDS BACK AS WELL AS A SMALL CHANCE POPS. DRY AIR AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING SE ACROSS THE
AREA MON SO WILL MAINTAIN DECENT THREAT FOR SHRA. THE FRONT IS SHOWN
TO MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE AREA TO PROBABLY ALLOW FOR DRY
CONDITIONS ON TUE WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. WED THRU
FRI...A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL DRIFT NE CAUSING
A LOW TO LIFT NE TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN BY LATE FRI. THE STALLED
FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT
PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SHRA AND TSRA TO START SPREADING NE OVER THE
AREA WED INTO WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE ON THU...AND PROBABLY FOR
SEVERAL MOVE DAYS AFTER THAT. TEMPS UNCERTAIN AS THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE CWA MAY SEE NE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THUS PRODUCING A COOL
FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE WHILE THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES HAVE A GOOD CHANCE
OF SEEING TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S ANY MAYBE SOME 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE TOLEDO AREA
BETWEEN 00Z AND 01Z THIS EVENING. MORE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AND MAY CLIP MANSFIELD AND AFFECT AKRON CANTON AND
YOUNGSTOWN. SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY OUT OF ERIE IN THE
NEXT HOUR. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TOMORROW MORNING AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION. AT THIS TIME...LATEST MODELS ARE COMING IN STATING THAT
IT WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET OVERNIGHT BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THROUGH A GOOD PART OF
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. IMPROVING CEILINGS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY FROM
WEST TO EAST AND WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS WELL.
.OUTLOOK..SOME NON VFR POSSIBLE ACROSS NW PA FOR EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN FOR MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS LAKE ERIE LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING AND THE FOLLOWING COLD ADVECTION SHOULD BE ABLE TO
PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS FOR A WHILE. WILL GO WITH LOW END GALES FOR
A WHILE ON FRI. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS TO WEAKEN LATER
FRI INTO FRI NIGHT SO WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY START DIMINISHING THEN
BECOME LIGHT BY SAT EVE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS OHIO INTO PA.
A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD SET UP IN THE WAKE OF THE HIGH FOR
SUN INCREASING TO ABOUT 10 TO 20 KNOTS FOR SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES THE LAKE MON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
BUILDS IN BY MON NIGHT SO WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND SHOULD STAY FAIRLY
LIGHT THRU TUE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ029>032-036>038-
047.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEZ061-142>149-
162>169.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...ADAMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
633 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND THEN STALLS FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
630 PM UPDATE...
UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT NEXT COMPLEX COMING INTO OUR SRN AND CENTRAL
ZONES AND THEN MOVING NEWD OVERNIGHT. ALSO WW33 IS GONE.
PREV DISCN...
BUSY DAY WITH LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH CWA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH MCV PASSING JUST TO OUR NORTH
AND GOOD INFLOW INTO THE SOUTH. RELIED HEAVILY ON THE HRRR FOR
TIMING OF THE LINE...WHICH IS MOVING ESE AROUND 40KTS. THINGS
BECOME A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN TONIGHT...AS CONVECTION WILL BE
LINGERING AROUND A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD BE NEAR OUR SOUTHERN
CWA BORDER. HRRR SHOWING TWO SEPARATE COMPLEXES MOVING ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. GENERALLY HAVE GOTTEN AROUND A
HALF AN INCH IN TODAYS LINE OF CONVECTION...AND COULD GET ANOTHER
HALF TO ONE INCH OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE IT WOULD TAKE AROUND 1.5 INCHES
IN 3 HOURS TO START CREATING LOCAL PROBLEMS.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY
MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. IN THE UNSTABLE WARM
SECTOR...COULD AGAIN SEE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS APPROACH FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AS EXISTING FORECAST LOOKED DECENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
ACROSS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. LOTS OF JUICE AND
GOOD DYNAMICS WILL BRING A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS END FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING FRIDAY...WITH THE FRONT EXITING THE MOUNTAINS BY LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR A DRY
BUT COOLER START TO THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LOWER TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WEEKEND
STARTS OUT WARM AND DRY...AND HIGH PRESSURE...SURFACE AND ALOFT
BUILDS IN. AN ACTIVE AND STORMY WEEK THEN TAKES HOLD NEXT WEEK...AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY...STALLS OUT ACROSS THE AREA
BRIEFLY...BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY
TUESDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE SET UP FOR
WARM...AND HUMID WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA...ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. FOR
NOW...BROAD BRUSHED POPS IN THE EXTENDED...WITH A DIURNAL TREND TO
CONVECTION/HIGHER POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
630 PM UPDATE...
UPDATED TAFS TO REFLECT CURRENT BREAK. MORE CONVECTION OVERSPREADS
THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE NEXT COMPLEX COMES UP THE OHIO VALLEY FROM
THE W.
PREV DISCN...
HAVE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS CWA...WITH IFR AND A
PERIOD OF WINDS GUSTING 30-40 KTS. HAVE IFR AT HTS/PKB/CRW...BUT
OPTED TO WAIT AT OTHER THREE SITES TO SEE HOW THINGS GO. STRONGEST
PART OF THE LINE LOOKS TO BE HEADED ACROSS MIDDLE AND SOUTHERN
CWA. OVERNIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSHOWERS...BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE VERY WIDESPREAD. AS A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ON THURSDAY...WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FOG TONIGHT WHERE IT HAS
RAINED...ESPECIALLY IF FLOW DROPS OFF.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/CATEGORY IN SHOWERS/STORMS MAY VARY.
UNCERTAIN ON FOG FORMATION TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H M H H M H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR WVZ005-006-013.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR OHZ087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/MZ/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM/MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
343 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BUT SHOULD
LIFT NORTH ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE GREAT
LAKES. THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW IN THE EASTERN MOST COUNTIES OF THE
CWA WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DRY. NEAR TERM HIGH REZ
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CHANGEABLE FOR THE EVENING AND FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT...FIRST DEVELOPING PRECIP IN THE AREA THIS EVENING AND NOW
NOT UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR SO NORTHWEST ON THE FRONT. WILL USE A BLEND
OF THE NAM AND HRRR AND HAVE PRECIP EAST MOVING OUT DURING THE
EVENING AND THEN MORE SHOWERS/THUNDER DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTHWEST
AND WEST DRIFTING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT
CONTINUED TO INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR ALL BUT FAR
NORTHEAST. TEMPS TOUGH WITH THE FRONT AND LAKE INFLUENCES. NEAR
THE LAKE LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S BUT INLAND A SHORT DISTANCE
50S LOOK BETTER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY THE FRONT WILL HAVE TURNED WARM AND MOVED NORTH OF MUCH
OF THE AREA AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE HEADING TOWARD THE CENTRAL LAKES.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT GETS STUCK LIFTING OUT OF NERN
OHIO...POSSIBLY NEVER CLEARING OUT OF NWRN PA. WILL BE CLOSE.
OTHERWISE DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
CAPE. GUIDANCE POPS HIGH AND WOULD BE TOUGH TO GO AGAINST THE
TREND. WILL HAVE CAT POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH WARM
FRONT NORTH OF MOST HOWEVER TEMPS SHOULD TOUCH 70 MANY AREAS.
CONTINUED WET THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW MOVES
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH CAT POPS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. FRIDAY THE DEEP MOISTURE MOVES EAST. GUIDANCE
SHOWS CLEARING MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ALTHOUGH MODELS ALSO SHOW
QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL (850MB) MOISTURE REMAINING IN THE AREA.
NOT SURE I BUY THE RAPID CLEARING GUIDANCE IS FORECAST SO BACKED
OFF THE SPEED AT WHICH THIS MOVES IN. THAT SHOULD RESULT IN A
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY START WITH COUNTIES BECOMING -PARTLY- SUNNY
FROM SOUTHWEST TO EAST. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD ONTO A SMALL CHANCE
POPS AS BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH WITH
A GENERAL LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE LAKES. DRY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. SO
SUNDAY SHOULD BE WARMER AND DRY. TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM STILL IN
DOUBT...GFS BRINGS WARM FRONT INTO AREA WITH CHANCE OF PRECIP MONDAY
NIGHT WHILE ECMWF A LITTLE SLOWER. FOR NOW WILL JUST GO LOW CHANCE
POPS MONDAY NIGHT. BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE THE NEXT WAVE
THROUGH ON TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRONT LIFTED NORTH OF EVERYWHERE EXCEPT NW OH WHERE DENSE FOG WILL
LINGER THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED TSRA WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE FORECAST BY EARLY EVENING. ANOTHER WAVE WILL DEVELOP TO THE
WEST AND MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...TIMING OF WHICH IS STILL
IN DOUBT.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD IMPROVE WEST TO EAST ON FRI WITH PASSAGE
OF COLD FRONT BUT AREAS OF NON VFR MAY HANG AROUND SNOWBELT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
HAVE DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS NE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO
5 TO 15 KNOTS. TOMORROW THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LAKE FRIDAY MORNING. 925MB WINDS INCREASE TO 50
KNOTS...NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THAT CAN MIX DOWN AHEAD OF FRONT SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH 30 KNOTS IN THE FORECAST. COULD SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF 35 KNOT GALES WITH THE FRONT ITSELF. WINDS DIMINISH
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE
SATURDAY AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE LAKE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
327 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
COLD FRONT CROSSES AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE FOR
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BUSY DAY WITH LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH CWA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH MCV PASSING JUST TO OUR NORTH
AND GOOD INFLOW INTO THE SOUTH. RELIED HEAVILY ON THE HRRR FOR
TIMING OF THE LINE...WHICH IS MOVING ESE AROUND 40KTS. THINGS
BECOME A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN TONIGHT...AS CONVECTION WILL BE
LINGERING AROUND A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD BE NEAR OUR SOUTHERN
CWA BORDER. HRRR SHOWING TWO SEPARATE COMPLEXES MOVING ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. GENERALLY HAVE GOTTEN AROUND A HALF
AN INCH IN TODAYS LINE OF CONVECTION...AND COULD GET ANOTHER HALF
TO ONE INCH OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE IT WOULD TAKE AROUND 1.5 INCHES IN
3 HOURS TO START CREATING LOCAL PROBLEMS.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY
MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. IN THE UNSTABLE WARM
SECTOR...COULD AGAIN SEE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS APPROACH FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AS EXISTING FORECAST LOOKED DECENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
ACROSS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. LOTS OF JUICE AND
GOOD DYNAMICS WILL BRING A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS END FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING FRIDAY...WITH THE FRONT EXITING THE MOUNTAINS BY LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR A DRY
BUT COOLER START TO THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LOWER TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WEEKEND
STARTS OUT WARM AND DRY...AND HIGH PRESSURE...SURFACE AND ALOFT
BUILDS IN. AN ACTIVE AND STORMY WEEK THEN TAKES HOLD NEXT WEEK...AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY...STALLS OUT ACROSS THE AREA
BRIEFLY...BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY
TUESDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE SET UP FOR
WARM...AND HUMID WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA...ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. FOR
NOW...BROAD BRUSHED POPS IN THE EXTENDED...WITH A DIURNAL TREND TO
CONVECTION/HIGHER POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS CWA...WITH IFR AND A
PERIOD OF WINDS GUSTING 30-40 KTS. HAVE IFR AT HTS/PKB/CRW...BUT
OPTED TO WAIT AT OTHER THREE SITES TO SEE HOW THINGS GO. STRONGEST
PART OF THE LINE LOOKS TO BE HEADED ACROSS MIDDLE AND SOUTHERN
CWA. OVERNIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSHOWERS...BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE VERY WIDESPREAD. AS A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ON THURSDAY...WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FOG TONIGHT WHERE IT HAS
RAINED...ESPECIALLY IF FLOW DROPS OFF.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/CATEGORY IN SHOWERS/STORMS MAY VARY.
UNCERTAIN ON FOG FORMATION TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H M H H M H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR WVZ005-006-013.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR OHZ087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/SL
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
149 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
COLD FRONT CROSSES AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE FOR
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BUSY DAY WITH LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH CWA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH MCV PASSING JUST TO OUR NORTH
AND GOOD INFLOW INTO THE SOUTH. RELIED HEAVILY ON THE HRRR FOR
TIMING OF THE LINE...WHICH IS MOVING ESE AROUND 40KTS. THINGS
BECOME A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN TONIGHT...AS CONVECTION WILL BE
LINGERING AROUND A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD BE NEAR OUR SOUTHERN
CWA BORDER. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
THURSDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. DO NOT EXPECT THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT TO PRODUCING WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN...BUT AS GROUND CONTINUES TO SOAK UP MORE WATER...FLOODING
CONCERNS WILL INCREASE. HOWEVER THINK ANY ISSUES THROUGH TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW WOULD BE VERY LOCALIZED...SO OPTED TO NOT ISSUE ANY
FLOOD HEADLINE AT THIS TIME. GENERALLY WILL GET AROUND HALF AN
INCH WITH THIS INITIAL LINE...THEN COULD GET ANOTHER QUARTER TO
HALF OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE IT WOULD TAKE AROUND 1.5 INCHES IN 3 HOURS
TO START CREATING LOCAL PROBLEMS.
ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AS EXISTING FORECAST LOOKED DECENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
ACROSS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. LOTS OF JUICE AND
GOOD DYNAMICS WILL BRING A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS END FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING FRIDAY...WITH THE FRONT EXITING THE MOUNTAINS BY LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR A DRY
BUT COOLER START TO THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LOWER TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WEEKEND
STARTS OUT WARM AND DRY...AND HIGH PRESSURE...SURFACE AND ALOFT
BUILDS IN. AN ACTIVE AND STORMY WEEK THEN TAKES HOLD NEXT WEEK...AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY...STALLS OUT ACROSS THE AREA
BRIEFLY...BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY
TUESDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE SET UP FOR
WARM...AND HUMID WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA...ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. FOR
NOW...BROAD BRUSHED POPS IN THE EXTENDED...WITH A DIURNAL TREND TO
CONVECTION/HIGHER POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS CWA...WITH IFR AND A
PERIOD OF WINDS GUSTING 30-40 KTS. HAVE IFR AT HTS/PKB/CRW...BUT
OPTED TO WAIT AT OTHER THREE SITES TO SEE HOW THINGS GO. STRONGEST
PART OF THE LINE LOOKS TO BE HEADED ACROSS MIDDLE AND SOUTHERN
CWA. OVERNIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSHOWERS...BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE VERY WIDESPREAD. AS A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ON THURSDAY...WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FOG TONIGHT WHERE IT HAS
RAINED...ESPECIALLY IF FLOW DROPS OFF.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/CATEGORY IN SHOWERS/STORMS MAY VARY.
UNCERTAIN ON FOG FORMATION TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M H H M H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/SL
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
144 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE AREA WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AFTER A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK
INTO THE REGION FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ORGANIZED SYSTEM OF CONVECTION HAS MAINTAINED ITSELF UPON ENTRY INTO
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...AND SIGNS ARE THAT IT WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD TOGETHER AND MAY EVEN INTENSIFY SOME AS IT
PROPAGATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE CWA MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. MAIN THREAT IS
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE LOCALIZED LARGE HAIL.
SYNOPTICALLY...THERE IS A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
CENTRAL/WESTERN OHIO. NEAR THIS BOUNDARY AND TO IT/S SOUTH IS
WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE AND WHERE THE
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL EXISTS. THIS BOUNDARY LIKELY DOESN/T MOVE
MUCH DURING THE DAYTIME.
THE FATE OF THIS MCS WILL HELP DETERMINE WHAT OCCURS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION/DETAILS ARE QUITE UNCERTAIN IN
THE WAKE ON THIS MCS AND DIFFERENT MODELS SHOW DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS. HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING NSSL WRF-ARW MOST CLOSELY UP TO
THIS POINT...ALTHOUGH LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR HAS NOW PICKED UP THE
MCS SHOWING A SIMILAR SOLUTION FOR WRF. THERE MAY BE A BREAK LULL
IN ACTIVITY AFTER THIS MCS MOVES THROUGH ALTHOUGH THE TAIL OF IT
MAY RE-ACTIVATE SOONER MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND THEN
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THEN MAY FOLLOW SUIT THROUGH
EVENING. POPS/WX HAVE BEEN RE-WORKED TO REFLECT THIS THINKING.
HAVE LOWERED MAX BY A DEG OR TWO GIVEN LOTS OF CLOUDS/CONVECTION
BUT STILL EXPECT CWA TO RISE AOA 70 FOR MAXIMA THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT A LULL OR A DECREASE IN THE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE BRIEFLY
AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH TONIGHT HOWEVER BRINGING A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION. YET ANOTHER WAVE BRINGS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FA ON THURSDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREATS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY EVENING AND
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS
THIS STRONG COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE REGION THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN WORK
INTO THE FA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
WORK INTO THE AREA FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
NOT EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO DROP MUCH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO THE LOW 60S. DECENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON THURSDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 70S TO
AROUND 80. WIND GUSTS WILL REACH UP AROUND 35 MPH AT TIMES ON
THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THE WINDS PICK UP.
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE DECREASE IN CLOUDS
AND THE COOLER AIR MASS WORKING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE 30S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FA
FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA SATURDAY BEFORE SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH. AS
WE START TO GET INTO SOME RETURN FLOW...HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH
UP INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND THEN PUSHES OFF TO
THE EAST. WE MAY END UP WITH THE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS
OUR WEST SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN OUR EAST FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. WILL GENERALLY KEEP LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S...BUT SOME COLDER READINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING DEVELOPS.
IN DEVELOPING WAA...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN SHOULD THEN BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES
EAST TOWARD THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWERS 70S. AS THE SHORT WAVE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST...PCPN SHOULD
TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
60S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BRUNT OF THE MCS HAD MOVED EAST OF THE TERMINALS AS OF 17Z. STILL
MAY HOLD ONTO MVFR CONDITIONS AT KCMH/KLCK FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS...BUT TREND FOR A RETURN TO VFR IS LIKELY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS LIKELY TO BE SOME RE-DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING TIMING AND PLACEMENT...HOWEVER CONSENSUS IS FOR
KCVG/KLUK TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AND HAVE INCLUDED
A TEMPO GROUP. JUST HAVE VCTS FOR THE REMAINING TERMINALS THIS
EVENING.
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE TONIGHT/THURSDAY.
DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THERE MAY BE AN OVERNIGHT
LULL BUT THUNDERSTORMS MAY RETURN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY MORNING TO
THE TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. GUSTY WEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...BPP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
117 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...ADJUSTED TEMPS AGAIN BASED ON HRRR. POPS DECENT BUT
TRIMMED BACK THE FOG TO THE WEST.
ORIGINAL...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM OVERNIGHT HAS DECREASED AS
EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING TO THE WEST
AND THIS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS
FORMED IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS MORNING...INCLUDING REPORTS IN NW
PA. I WILL EXPAND THE MENTION OF PATCHY DENSE FOG TO ALMOST ALL
AREAS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES
AND PRECIPITATION TO REFLECT THE CURRENT TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PA TODAY. LITTLE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT
WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS THESE TYPE OF STATIONARY
FRONTS SET UP ON THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ERIE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY BUT I DO NOT EXPECT WIDE SPREAD
AREAL COVERAGE. IT WILL BE TOUGH TO PREDICT THE TIMING. LOCALIZED
BOUNDARIES AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL MOST LIKELY TRIGGER THE SHOWERS.
THIS IS RE-ENFORCED BY THE HRRR MODEL AS SEVERAL RUNS INDICATED
SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWER PATTERN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
I WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY RANGED POPS OVER THE AREA.
THUNDER IS POSSIBLE AND THE THREAT WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED SOME OF THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO IN A SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. BIG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AGAIN NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHEAST FLOW NEAR THE LAKE WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WITH THE LACK OF STRONG DYNAMICS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THE SHOWERS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE DIFFICULT TO
TIME. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA BUT
IT WILL BE FAIRLY UNORGANIZED. AS THE SHORT WAVE IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA THURSDAY...THE STATIONARY
FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED. A LARGE AREA OF Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE IS NOTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM.
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE NUMEROUS
AND ORGANIZED ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS STILL A
QUESTION. THE TIMING IS NOT OPTIMAL AS THE BEST LIFT WILL OCCUR
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WE WILL STILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
THREAT. AT THIS TIME MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM MAY LINGER OVER THE EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING BUT SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD
RAPIDLY DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. DRY AIR AND COLD ADVECTION WILL
OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT. 850MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -8C COULD MOVE OVER THE
LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR NE OH AND NW PA BUT I WILL LEAVE THE
MENTION OF SNOW OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE AIR IS VERY
DRY BEHIND THE FRONT AND IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO GET ANY TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION WITHOUT ASSISTANCE FROM THE LAKE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SHOULD PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ON SUN
AND ALLOW TEMPS TO MODERATE BACK A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE GOING INTO SUN NIGHT AS RETURN FLOW
MOISTURE ARRIVES ALONG WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. WILL
GENERALLY LEAVE SUN NIGHT FORECAST AS IS BUT ALLOW FOR A MORE
UNIFORM PRECIP THREAT ON MON. MODELS TRYING TO SHOW A REPEAT SETUP
OF THE CURRENT PATTERN WITH A FRONT STALLED NEAR THE AREA STARTING
BY TUE AND LASTING ALL WEEK SO WILL INCREASE POPS A LITTLE MORE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRONT LIFTED NORTH OF EVERYWHERE EXCEPT NW OH WHERE DENSE FOG WILL
LINGER THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED TSRA WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE FORECAST BY EARLY EVENING. ANOTHER WAVE WILL DEVELOP TO THE
WEST AND MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...TIMING OF WHICH IS STILL
IN DOUBT.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD IMPROVE WEST TO EAST ON FRI WITH PASSAGE
OF COLD FRONT BUT AREAS OF NON VFR MAY HANG AROUND SNOWBELT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WILL LEAVE SCA FOR WEST PART OF THE LAKE GOING UNTIL 3 PM BUT COULD
BE TAKEN DOWN SOONER IF FRONT LIFTS INTO NEARSHORE WATERS A LITTLE
BEFORE THEN AND TURNS WINDS MORE SOUTH AT A DIMINISHED SPEED. MODELS
INDICATE THE FRONT MAY SAG BACK SOUTH OF THE LAKE TOWARD
EVENING...POSSIBLY DUE TO LAKE BREEZE ENHANCEMENT BUT THEN SHOULD
START TO LIFT BACK INTO THE LAKE LATER IN THE NIGHT AND CONTINUE OFF
TO THE NORTH ON THU. THE WARM AIR FLOWING OVER THE COLD LAKE SHOULD
PROVIDE A STABILIZING EFFECT SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP WINDS UNDER 20
KTS UNTIL THU NIGHT WHEN LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES MORE AND STARTS TO
TURN SW. THIS WILL PROVIDE MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR WINDS TO
INCREASE TO AT LEAST 15 TO 25 KNOTS.
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI MORNING WILL
TURN THE WINDS TO THE WEST AND AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN CAN SEE WINDS
AROUND 30 KNOTS SO WILL INCREASE THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
PUSHES INTO OH TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE WINDS FRI NIGHT THRU SAT SO
THE SCA WILL END. NOT SURE IF THE ICE IS BROKEN UP ENOUGH OR NOT BUT
THIS MAY BE THE EVENT WHERE THE ICE TYPICALLY GETS PUSHED INTO THE
EAST END OF THE LAKE WITH THE STRONGER SW TO W WINDS.
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SUN NIGHT TO ALLOW
LIGHT WINDS TO TURN SE AND START TO INCREASE SOME.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LEZ142>146.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GARNET
NEAR TERM...GARNET/TK
SHORT TERM...GARNET
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...ADAMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1150 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...ADJUSTED TEMPS AGAIN BASED ON HRRR. POPS DECENT BUT
TRIMMED BACK THE FOG TO THE WEST.
ORIGINAL...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM OVERNIGHT HAS DECREASED AS
EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING TO THE WEST
AND THIS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS
FORMED IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS MORNING...INCLUDING REPORTS IN NW
PA. I WILL EXPAND THE MENTION OF PATCHY DENSE FOG TO ALMOST ALL
AREAS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES
AND PRECIPITATION TO REFLECT THE CURRENT TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PA TODAY. LITTLE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT
WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS THESE TYPE OF STATIONARY
FRONTS SET UP ON THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ERIE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY BUT I DO NOT EXPECT WIDE SPREAD
AREAL COVERAGE. IT WILL BE TOUGH TO PREDICT THE TIMING. LOCALIZED
BOUNDARIES AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL MOST LIKELY TRIGGER THE SHOWERS.
THIS IS RE-ENFORCED BY THE HRRR MODEL AS SEVERAL RUNS INDICATED
SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWER PATTERN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
I WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY RANGED POPS OVER THE AREA.
THUNDER IS POSSIBLE AND THE THREAT WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED SOME OF THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO IN A SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. BIG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AGAIN NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHEAST FLOW NEAR THE LAKE WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WITH THE LACK OF STRONG DYNAMICS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THE SHOWERS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE DIFFICULT TO
TIME. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA BUT
IT WILL BE FAIRLY UNORGANIZED. AS THE SHORT WAVE IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA THURSDAY...THE STATIONARY
FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED. A LARGE AREA OF Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE IS NOTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM.
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE NUMEROUS
AND ORGANIZED ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS STILL A
QUESTION. THE TIMING IS NOT OPTIMAL AS THE BEST LIFT WILL OCCUR
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WE WILL STILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
THREAT. AT THIS TIME MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM MAY LINGER OVER THE EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING BUT SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD
RAPIDLY DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. DRY AIR AND COLD ADVECTION WILL
OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT. 850MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -8C COULD MOVE OVER THE
LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR NE OH AND NW PA BUT I WILL LEAVE THE
MENTION OF SNOW OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE AIR IS VERY
DRY BEHIND THE FRONT AND IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO GET ANY TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION WITHOUT ASSISTANCE FROM THE LAKE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SHOULD PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ON SUN
AND ALLOW TEMPS TO MODERATE BACK A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE GOING INTO SUN NIGHT AS RETURN FLOW
MOISTURE ARRIVES ALONG WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. WILL
GENERALLY LEAVE SUN NIGHT FORECAST AS IS BUT ALLOW FOR A MORE
UNIFORM PRECIP THREAT ON MON. MODELS TRYING TO SHOW A REPEAT SETUP
OF THE CURRENT PATTERN WITH A FRONT STALLED NEAR THE AREA STARTING
BY TUE AND LASTING ALL WEEK SO WILL INCREASE POPS A LITTLE MORE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEST TO EAST LYING FRONT NEAR MFD WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH TO THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN WAVER SOME BEFORE
HEADING OFF TO THE NORTH INTO FRI MORNING. GUIDANCE INDICATES
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/LOW VFR LATE MORNING INTO MIDDAY SO WILL PLAY
TAFS THAT WAY. SCT SHRA WILL AFFECT THE AREA THRU THE PERIOD. BETTER
THREAT FOR TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS AIRMASS BECOMES MORE
UNSTABLE...BUT WHERE AND WHEN TSRA MAY OCCUR IS ANYBODY`S GUESS SO
FOR NOW WILL KEEP OUT OF TAFS OTHER THAN MENTION WITH VCTS.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LOWER AGAIN BY LATE EVENING AS LOW LEVELS
COOL A FEW DEGREES.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD IMPROVE WEST TO EAST ON FRI WITH PASSAGE
OF COLD FRONT BUT AREAS OF NON VFR MAY HANG AROUND SNOWBELT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WILL LEAVE SCA FOR WEST PART OF THE LAKE GOING UNTIL 3 PM BUT COULD
BE TAKEN DOWN SOONER IF FRONT LIFTS INTO NEARSHORE WATERS A LITTLE
BEFORE THEN AND TURNS WINDS MORE SOUTH AT A DIMINISHED SPEED. MODELS
INDICATE THE FRONT MAY SAG BACK SOUTH OF THE LAKE TOWARD
EVENING...POSSIBLY DUE TO LAKE BREEZE ENHANCEMENT BUT THEN SHOULD
START TO LIFT BACK INTO THE LAKE LATER IN THE NIGHT AND CONTINUE OFF
TO THE NORTH ON THU. THE WARM AIR FLOWING OVER THE COLD LAKE SHOULD
PROVIDE A STABILIZING EFFECT SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP WINDS UNDER 20
KTS UNTIL THU NIGHT WHEN LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES MORE AND STARTS TO
TURN SW. THIS WILL PROVIDE MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR WINDS TO
INCREASE TO AT LEAST 15 TO 25 KNOTS.
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI MORNING WILL
TURN THE WINDS TO THE WEST AND AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN CAN SEE WINDS
AROUND 30 KNOTS SO WILL INCREASE THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
PUSHES INTO OH TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE WINDS FRI NIGHT THRU SAT SO
THE SCA WILL END. NOT SURE IF THE ICE IS BROKEN UP ENOUGH OR NOT BUT
THIS MAY BE THE EVENT WHERE THE ICE TYPICALLY GETS PUSHED INTO THE
EAST END OF THE LAKE WITH THE STRONGER SW TO W WINDS.
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SUN NIGHT TO ALLOW
LIGHT WINDS TO TURN SE AND START TO INCREASE SOME.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LEZ142>146.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GARNET
NEAR TERM...GARNET/TK
SHORT TERM...GARNET
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1038 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL BRING ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. COLD FRONT CROSSES AT
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1025 AM UPDATE...THE 12Z HRRR HAS FINALLY LATCHED ON TO CONVECTION
COMING ACROSS INDIANA...UP TO THIS POINT EVERYTHING TRIED TO KEEP
ACTIVITY WELL TO OUR NORTH...BUT THE RECENT HRRR AND NEW 12Z NAM
AS ITS JUST ROLLING IN ARE MUCH MORE BELIEVABLE ROLLING A LINE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. RELIED VERY HEAVILY ON THE 12Z HRRR TO UPDATE POPS.
THINGS MAY BE SPEEDING UP JUST A TOUCH...SO MAY NEED TO ADJUST
TIMING AGAIN IN A COUPLE HOURS AS THINGS APPROACH. DECENT
LINE...ALTHOUGH HAVE NOT SEEN ANY SEVERE LEVEL LSRS OUT OF
UPSTREAM OFFICES...BUT EXPECT AT LEAST SOME RISK OF SEVERE LEVEL
WINDS AS THIS LINE CONTINUES TOWARD US. HAVE COORDINATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MESO NAM SHOWS A BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TRACING THIS BOUNDARY
BACK TO THE CURRENT TIME...IT MATCHES WELL WITH CONVECTION OVER
MISSOURI AND IOWA. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS
PROPAGATING WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THIS BAND
HITTING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AM A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. HOWEVER...NAM IS SHOWING THE BAND
ORIENTATION IS PERPENDICULAR TO THE STORM MOVEMENT WITH A DECENT 15
KNOT MOVEMENT. IN ADDITION...PRECIPITABLE WATER IS NOT THAT HIGH.
THEREFORE...WILL HOLD OFF ON A WATCH FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.
NAM HAS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER TONIGHT THAT IS NOT
REFLECTED IN THE GFS. THIS BAND ORIGINATES FROM A VORTICITY LOBE
DURING CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THAT LEADS TO A LOWER
CONFIDENCE...SO WILL BE FAIRLY GENERIC WITH POPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK STILL SHAPING UP FOR WEDNESDAY. STILL TRICKY
FORECASTING HIGHS AS AREA WILL BE BATTLING SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY EARLY AND ACROSS SE OH AND N WV. WILL ROLL A
MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION WITH LOW 80S...PRIMARILY ACROSS S ZONES. IT
WILL BE BREEZY AMID STRENGTHENING S FLOW. CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHRA
AND TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SVR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE OH.
A BREEZY AND WARM NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT MAKING AN
APPROACH ON OUR WESTERN FLANK AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SPEED UP THE FRONT...NOW BLOWING IT THRU BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. SO...HAVE
THE BOUNDARY CROSSING THE OH RIVER 12Z FRIDAY AND C WV 15Z...EXITING
THE MOUNTAINS BY 18Z. WILL HAVE SOME FRONTAL SHRA/TSRA TO CONTEND
WITH...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO LOW END SVR AS HIGHLIGHTED
BY SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.
CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE FRESHENING POSTFRONTAL AIRMASS
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL TAKE US INTO WHAT WILL BE A STELLAR
WEEKEND...WITH MILD DAYTIME TEMPS AND A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. TI WILL
CHILL OFF PRETTY GOOD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
WITH A FROST CONCERN FOR THE LOWLANDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE QUICKER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY LEAVING
FRIDAY NIGHT MOSTLY DRY. THE OUTLIER IS THE ECMWF WHICH LAGS ABOUT 6
HOURS IN ITS QPF FIELD. WENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS WITH A
FASTER SOLUTIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER WAVE APPROACHES MONDAY BRINGING BACK CHANCES
FOR PCPN ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE WARM REACHING THE UPPER 70S THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT COOL DOWN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
SATURDAY...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. WENT CLOSE TO WPC
GUIDANCE WITH FEW TWEAKS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING HAS SOME HOLES THAT HAVE
ALLOWED PATCHY FOG. AFTER ANY MORNING FOG BURNS OFF THIS
MORNING...EXPECT THE STRATUS DECK TO CHANGE INTO A CUMULUS
DECK...GRADUALLY RISING DURING THE DAY. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...BEGINNING FIRST IN
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHEASTERN KY...THEN PUSHING EASTWARD. BRIEF
IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONG CELLS.
CLOUDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE VFR WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT DEPENDING ON
SKY COVER...SOME PATCHES OF FOG COULD ALSO FORM. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY TONIGHT. THE HEIGHT OF ANY
CLOUD DECKS LATE TONIGHT IS HARD TO FORECAST...AS MOISTURE AT MOST
LEVELS COULD FORM A CLOUD DECK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TODAY...LOW TONIGHT.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG THIS MORNING AND
TONIGHT COULD VARY. STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD CAUSE BRIEF
IFR CONDITIONS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY M H M H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...RPY/MZ
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...RPY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
941 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...ADJUSTED TEMPS BASED ON HRRR. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS. TRIED
TO TIME CURRENT CONVECTION EAST ACROSS THE AREA BASED ON
EXTRAPOLATION AND HRRR GUIDANCE.
ORIGINAL...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM OVERNIGHT HAS DECREASED AS
EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING TO THE WEST
AND THIS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS
FORMED IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS MORNING...INCLUDING REPORTS IN NW
PA. I WILL EXPAND THE MENTION OF PATCHY DENSE FOG TO ALMOST ALL
AREAS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES
AND PRECIPITATION TO REFLECT THE CURRENT TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PA TODAY. LITTLE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT
WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS THESE TYPE OF STATIONARY
FRONTS SET UP ON THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ERIE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY BUT I DO NOT EXPECT WIDE SPREAD
AREAL COVERAGE. IT WILL BE TOUGH TO PREDICT THE TIMING. LOCALIZED
BOUNDARIES AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL MOST LIKELY TRIGGER THE SHOWERS.
THIS IS RE-ENFORCED BY THE HRRR MODEL AS SEVERAL RUNS INDICATED
SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWER PATTERN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
I WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY RANGED POPS OVER THE AREA.
THUNDER IS POSSIBLE AND THE THREAT WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED SOME OF THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO IN A SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. BIG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AGAIN NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHEAST FLOW NEAR THE LAKE WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WITH THE LACK OF STRONG DYNAMICS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THE SHOWERS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE DIFFICULT TO
TIME. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA BUT
IT WILL BE FAIRLY UNORGANIZED. AS THE SHORT WAVE IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA THURSDAY...THE STATIONARY
FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED. A LARGE AREA OF Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE IS NOTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM.
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE NUMEROUS
AND ORGANIZED ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS STILL A
QUESTION. THE TIMING IS NOT OPTIMAL AS THE BEST LIFT WILL OCCUR
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WE WILL STILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
THREAT. AT THIS TIME MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM MAY LINGER OVER THE EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING BUT SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD
RAPIDLY DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. DRY AIR AND COLD ADVECTION WILL
OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT. 850MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -8C COULD MOVE OVER THE
LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR NE OH AND NW PA BUT I WILL LEAVE THE
MENTION OF SNOW OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE AIR IS VERY
DRY BEHIND THE FRONT AND IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO GET ANY TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION WITHOUT ASSISTANCE FROM THE LAKE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SHOULD PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ON SUN
AND ALLOW TEMPS TO MODERATE BACK A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE GOING INTO SUN NIGHT AS RETURN FLOW
MOISTURE ARRIVES ALONG WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. WILL
GENERALLY LEAVE SUN NIGHT FORECAST AS IS BUT ALLOW FOR A MORE
UNIFORM PRECIP THREAT ON MON. MODELS TRYING TO SHOW A REPEAT SETUP
OF THE CURRENT PATTERN WITH A FRONT STALLED NEAR THE AREA STARTING
BY TUE AND LASTING ALL WEEK SO WILL INCREASE POPS A LITTLE MORE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEST TO EAST LYING FRONT NEAR MFD WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH TO THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN WAVER SOME BEFORE
HEADING OFF TO THE NORTH INTO FRI MORNING. GUIDANCE INDICATES
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/LOW VFR LATE MORNING INTO MIDDAY SO WILL PLAY
TAFS THAT WAY. SCT SHRA WILL AFFECT THE AREA THRU THE PERIOD. BETTER
THREAT FOR TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS AIRMASS BECOMES MORE
UNSTABLE...BUT WHERE AND WHEN TSRA MAY OCCUR IS ANYBODY`S GUESS SO
FOR NOW WILL KEEP OUT OF TAFS OTHER THAN MENTION WITH VCTS.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LOWER AGAIN BY LATE EVENING AS LOW LEVELS
COOL A FEW DEGREES.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD IMPROVE WEST TO EAST ON FRI WITH PASSAGE
OF COLD FRONT BUT AREAS OF NON VFR MAY HANG AROUND SNOWBELT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WILL LEAVE SCA FOR WEST PART OF THE LAKE GOING UNTIL 3 PM BUT COULD
BE TAKEN DOWN SOONER IF FRONT LIFTS INTO NEARSHORE WATERS A LITTLE
BEFORE THEN AND TURNS WINDS MORE SOUTH AT A DIMINISHED SPEED. MODELS
INDICATE THE FRONT MAY SAG BACK SOUTH OF THE LAKE TOWARD
EVENING...POSSIBLY DUE TO LAKE BREEZE ENHANCEMENT BUT THEN SHOULD
START TO LIFT BACK INTO THE LAKE LATER IN THE NIGHT AND CONTINUE OFF
TO THE NORTH ON THU. THE WARM AIR FLOWING OVER THE COLD LAKE SHOULD
PROVIDE A STABILIZING EFFECT SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP WINDS UNDER 20
KTS UNTIL THU NIGHT WHEN LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES MORE AND STARTS TO
TURN SW. THIS WILL PROVIDE MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR WINDS TO
INCREASE TO AT LEAST 15 TO 25 KNOTS.
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI MORNING WILL
TURN THE WINDS TO THE WEST AND AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN CAN SEE WINDS
AROUND 30 KNOTS SO WILL INCREASE THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
PUSHES INTO OH TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE WINDS FRI NIGHT THRU SAT SO
THE SCA WILL END. NOT SURE IF THE ICE IS BROKEN UP ENOUGH OR NOT BUT
THIS MAY BE THE EVENT WHERE THE ICE TYPICALLY GETS PUSHED INTO THE
EAST END OF THE LAKE WITH THE STRONGER SW TO W WINDS.
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SUN NIGHT TO ALLOW
LIGHT WINDS TO TURN SE AND START TO INCREASE SOME.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LEZ142>146.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GARNET
NEAR TERM...GARNET/TK
SHORT TERM...GARNET
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
702 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM OVERNIGHT HAS DECREASED AS EXPECTED.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING TO THE WEST AND THIS
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS FORMED IN
MANY LOCATIONS THIS MORNING...INCLUDING REPORTS IN NW PA. I WILL
EXPAND THE MENTION OF PATCHY DENSE FOG TO ALMOST ALL AREAS FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
TO REFLECT THE CURRENT TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PA TODAY. LITTLE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT
WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS THESE TYPE OF STATIONARY
FRONTS SET UP ON THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ERIE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY BUT I DO NOT EXPECT WIDE SPREAD
AREAL COVERAGE. IT WILL BE TOUGH TO PREDICT THE TIMING. LOCALIZED
BOUNDARIES AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL MOST LIKELY TRIGGER THE SHOWERS.
THIS IS RE-ENFORCED BY THE HRRR MODEL AS SEVERAL RUNS INDICATED
SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWER PATTERN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
I WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY RANGED POPS OVER THE AREA.
THUNDER IS POSSIBLE AND THE THREAT WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED SOME OF THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO IN A SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. BIG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AGAIN NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHEAST FLOW NEAR THE LAKE WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WITH THE LACK OF STRONG DYNAMICS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THE SHOWERS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE DIFFICULT TO
TIME. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA BUT
IT WILL BE FAIRLY UNORGANIZED. AS THE SHORT WAVE IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA THURSDAY...THE STATIONARY
FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED. A LARGE AREA OF Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE IS NOTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM.
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE NUMEROUS
AND ORGANIZED ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS STILL A
QUESTION. THE TIMING IS NOT OPTIMAL AS THE BEST LIFT WILL OCCUR
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WE WILL STILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
THREAT. AT THIS TIME MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM MAY LINGER OVER THE EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING BUT SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD
RAPIDLY DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. DRY AIR AND COLD ADVECTION WILL
OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT. 850MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -8C COULD MOVE OVER THE
LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR NE OH AND NW PA BUT I WILL LEAVE THE
MENTION OF SNOW OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE AIR IS VERY
DRY BEHIND THE FRONT AND IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO GET ANY TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION WITHOUT ASSISTANCE FROM THE LAKE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SHOULD PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ON SUN
AND ALLOW TEMPS TO MODERATE BACK A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE GOING INTO SUN NIGHT AS RETURN FLOW
MOISTURE ARRIVES ALONG WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. WILL
GENERALLY LEAVE SUN NIGHT FORECAST AS IS BUT ALLOW FOR A MORE
UNIFORM PRECIP THREAT ON MON. MODELS TRYING TO SHOW A REPEAT SETUP
OF THE CURRENT PATTERN WITH A FRONT STALLED NEAR THE AREA STARTING
BY TUE AND LASTING ALL WEEK SO WILL INCREASE POPS A LITTLE MORE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEST TO EAST LYING FRONT NEAR MFD WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH TO THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN WAVER SOME BEFORE
HEADING OFF TO THE NORTH INTO FRI MORNING. GUIDANCE INDICATES
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/LOW VFR LATE MORNING INTO MIDDAY SO WILL PLAY
TAFS THAT WAY. SCT SHRA WILL AFFECT THE AREA THRU THE PERIOD. BETTER
THREAT FOR TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS AIRMASS BECOMES MORE
UNSTABLE...BUT WHERE AND WHEN TSRA MAY OCCUR IS ANYBODY`S GUESS SO
FOR NOW WILL KEEP OUT OF TAFS OTHER THAN MENTION WITH VCTS.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LOWER AGAIN BY LATE EVENING AS LOW LEVELS
COOL A FEW DEGREES.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD IMPROVE WEST TO EAST ON FRI WITH PASSAGE
OF COLD FRONT BUT AREAS OF NON VFR MAY HANG AROUND SNOWBELT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WILL LEAVE SCA FOR WEST PART OF THE LAKE GOING UNTIL 3 PM BUT COULD
BE TAKEN DOWN SOONER IF FRONT LIFTS INTO NEARSHORE WATERS A LITTLE
BEFORE THEN AND TURNS WINDS MORE SOUTH AT A DIMINISHED SPEED. MODELS
INDICATE THE FRONT MAY SAG BACK SOUTH OF THE LAKE TOWARD
EVENING...POSSIBLY DUE TO LAKE BREEZE ENHANCEMENT BUT THEN SHOULD
START TO LIFT BACK INTO THE LAKE LATER IN THE NIGHT AND CONTINUE OFF
TO THE NORTH ON THU. THE WARM AIR FLOWING OVER THE COLD LAKE SHOULD
PROVIDE A STABILIZING EFFECT SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP WINDS UNDER 20
KTS UNTIL THU NIGHT WHEN LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES MORE AND STARTS TO
TURN SW. THIS WILL PROVIDE MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR WINDS TO
INCREASE TO AT LEAST 15 TO 25 KNOTS.
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI MORNING WILL
TURN THE WINDS TO THE WEST AND AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN CAN SEE WINDS
AROUND 30 KNOTS SO WILL INCREASE THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
PUSHES INTO OH TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE WINDS FRI NIGHT THRU SAT SO
THE SCA WILL END. NOT SURE IF THE ICE IS BROKEN UP ENOUGH OR NOT BUT
THIS MAY BE THE EVENT WHERE THE ICE TYPICALLY GETS PUSHED INTO THE
EAST END OF THE LAKE WITH THE STRONGER SW TO W WINDS.
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SUN NIGHT TO ALLOW
LIGHT WINDS TO TURN SE AND START TO INCREASE SOME.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LEZ142>146.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GARNET
NEAR TERM...GARNET
SHORT TERM...GARNET
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
602 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM OVERNIGHT HAS DECREASED AS EXPECTED.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING TO THE WEST AND THIS
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS FORMED IN
MANY LOCATIONS THIS MORNING...INCLUDING REPORTS IN NW PA. I WILL
EXPAND THE MENTION OF PATCHY DENSE FOG TO ALMOST ALL AREAS FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
TO REFLECT THE CURRENT TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PA TODAY. LITTLE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT
WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS THESE TYPE OF STATIONARY
FRONTS SET UP ON THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ERIE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY BUT I DO NOT EXPECT WIDE SPREAD
AREAL COVERAGE. IT WILL BE TOUGH TO PREDICT THE TIMING. LOCALIZED
BOUNDARIES AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL MOST LIKELY TRIGGER THE SHOWERS.
THIS IS RE-ENFORCED BY THE HRRR MODEL AS SEVERAL RUNS INDICATED
SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWER PATTERN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
I WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY RANGED POPS OVER THE AREA.
THUNDER IS POSSIBLE AND THE THREAT WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED SOME OF THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO IN A SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. BIG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AGAIN NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHEAST FLOW NEAR THE LAKE WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WITH THE LACK OF STRONG DYNAMICS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THE SHOWERS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE DIFFICULT TO TIME.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA BUT IT
WILL BE FAIRLY UNORGANIZED. AS THE SHORT WAVE IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA THURSDAY...THE STATIONARY
FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED. A LARGE AREA OF Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE IS NOTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM.
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE NUMEROUS
AND ORGANIZED ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS STILL A
QUESTION. THE TIMING IS NOT OPTIMAL AS THE BEST LIFT WILL OCCUR
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WE WILL STILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
THREAT. AT THIS TIME MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM MAY LINGER OVER THE EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING BUT SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD
RAPIDLY DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. DRY AIR AND COLD ADVECTION WILL
OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT. 850MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -8C COULD MOVE OVER THE
LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR NE OH AND NW PA BUT I WILL LEAVE THE
MENTION OF SNOW OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE AIR IS VERY
DRY BEHIND THE FRONT AND IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO GET ANY TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION WITHOUT ASSISTANCE FROM THE LAKE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SHOULD PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ON SUN
AND ALLOW TEMPS TO MODERATE BACK A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE GOING INTO SUN NIGHT AS RETURN FLOW
MOISTURE ARRIVES ALONG WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. WILL
GENERALLY LEAVE SUN NIGHT FORECAST AS IS BUT ALLOW FOR A MORE
UNIFORM PRECIP THREAT ON MON. MODELS TRYING TO SHOW A REPEAT SETUP
OF THE CURRENT PATTERN WITH A FRONT STALLED NEAR THE AREA STARTING
BY TUE AND LASTING ALL WEEK SO WILL INCREASE POPS A LITTLE MORE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONT IN CENTRAL OH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH TO BE NEAR LAKE ERIE BY
MIDNIGHT. LITTLE WILL CHANGE INTO DAYLIGHT SO IFR SHOULD PREVAIL
WITH SCT SHRA. GUIDANCE INDICATES IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/LOW VFR LATE
MORNING INTO MIDDAY. BETTER THREAT FOR TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT AS AIRMASS BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE...BUT WHERE AND WHEN TSRA
MAY OCCUR IS ANYBODY`S GUESS SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP OUT OF TAFS OTHER
THAN MENTION WITH VCTS. CONDITIONS SHOULD START TO LOWER AGAIN BY
LATE EVENING AS LOW LEVELS COOL A FEW DEGREES.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES INTO FRIDAY...POSSIBLY CONTINUING IN NW
PA EARLY SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WILL LEAVE SCA FOR WEST PART OF THE LAKE GOING UNTIL 3 PM BUT COULD
BE TAKEN DOWN SOONER IF FRONT LIFTS INTO NEARSHORE WATERS A LITTLE
BEFORE THEN AND TURNS WINDS MORE SOUTH AT A DIMINISHED SPEED. MODELS
INDICATE THE FRONT MAY SAG BACK SOUTH OF THE LAKE TOWARD
EVENING...POSSIBLY DUE TO LAKE BREEZE ENHANCEMENT BUT THEN SHOULD
START TO LIFT BACK INTO THE LAKE LATER IN THE NIGHT AND CONTINUE OFF
TO THE NORTH ON THU. THE WARM AIR FLOWING OVER THE COLD LAKE SHOULD
PROVIDE A STABILIZING EFFECT SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP WINDS UNDER 20
KTS UNTIL THU NIGHT WHEN LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES MORE AND STARTS TO
TURN SW. THIS WILL PROVIDE MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR WINDS TO
INCREASE TO AT LEAST 15 TO 25 KNOTS.
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI MORNING WILL
TURN THE WINDS TO THE WEST AND AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN CAN SEE WINDS
AROUND 30 KNOTS SO WILL INCREASE THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
PUSHES INTO OH TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE WINDS FRI NIGHT THRU SAT SO
THE SCA WILL END. NOT SURE IF THE ICE IS BROKEN UP ENOUGH OR NOT BUT
THIS MAY BE THE EVENT WHERE THE ICE TYPICALLY GETS PUSHED INTO THE
EAST END OF THE LAKE WITH THE STRONGER SW TO W WINDS.
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SUN NIGHT TO ALLOW
LIGHT WINDS TO TURN SE AND START TO INCREASE SOME.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LEZ142>146.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GARNET
NEAR TERM...GARNET
SHORT TERM...GARNET
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
300 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PA TODAY. LITTLE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT
WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS THESE TYPE OF STATIONARY
FRONTS SET UP ON THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ERIE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY BUT I DO NOT EXPECT WIDE SPREAD
AREAL COVERAGE. IT WILL BE TOUGH TO PREDICT THE TIMING. LOCALIZED
BOUNDARIES AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL MOST LIKELY TRIGGER THE SHOWERS.
THIS IS RE-ENFORCED BY THE HRRR MODEL AS SEVERAL RUNS INDICATED
SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWER PATTERN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
I WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY RANGED POPS OVER THE AREA.
THUNDER IS POSSIBLE AND THE THREAT WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED SOME OF THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO IN A SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. BIG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AGAIN NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHEAST FLOW NEAR THE LAKE WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WITH THE LACK OF STRONG DYNAMICS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THE SHOWERS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE DIFFICULT TO TIME.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA BUT IT
WILL BE FAIRLY UNORGANIZED. AS THE SHORT WAVE IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA THURSDAY...THE STATIONARY
FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED. A LARGE AREA OF Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE IS NOTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM.
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE NUMEROUS
AND ORGANIZED ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS STILL A
QUESTION. THE TIMING IS NOT OPTIMAL AS THE BEST LIFT WILL OCCUR
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WE WILL STILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
THREAT. AT THIS TIME MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM MAY LINGER OVER THE EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING BUT SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD
RAPIDLY DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. DRY AIR AND COLD ADVECTION WILL
OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT. 850MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -8C COULD MOVE OVER THE
LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR NE OH AND NW PA BUT I WILL LEAVE THE
MENTION OF SNOW OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE AIR IS VERY
DRY BEHIND THE FRONT AND IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO GET ANY TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION WITHOUT ASSISTANCE FROM THE LAKE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SHOULD PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ON SUN
AND ALLOW TEMPS TO MODERATE BACK A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE GOING INTO SUN NIGHT AS RETURN FLOW
MOISTURE ARRIVES ALONG WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. WILL
GENERALLY LEAVE SUN NIGHT FORECAST AS IS BUT ALLOW FOR A MORE
UNIFORM PRECIP THREAT ON MON. MODELS TRYING TO SHOW A REPEAT SETUP
OF THE CURRENT PATTERN WITH A FRONT STALLED NEAR THE AREA STARTING
BY TUE AND LASTING ALL WEEK SO WILL INCREASE POPS A LITTLE MORE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONT IN CENTRAL OH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH TO BE NEAR LAKE ERIE BY
MIDNIGHT. LITTLE WILL CHANGE INTO DAYLIGHT SO IFR SHOULD PREVAIL
WITH SCT SHRA. GUIDANCE INDICATES IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/LOW VFR LATE
MORNING INTO MIDDAY. BETTER THREAT FOR TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT AS AIRMASS BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE...BUT WHERE AND WHEN TSRA
MAY OCCUR IS ANYBODY`S GUESS SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP OUT OF TAFS OTHER
THAN MENTION WITH VCTS. CONDITIONS SHOULD START TO LOWER AGAIN BY
LATE EVENING AS LOW LEVELS COOL A FEW DEGREES.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES INTO FRIDAY...POSSIBLY CONTINUING IN NW
PA EARLY SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WILL LEAVE SCA FOR WEST PART OF THE LAKE GOING UNTIL 3 PM BUT COULD
BE TAKEN DOWN SOONER IF FRONT LIFTS INTO NEARSHORE WATERS A LITTLE
BEFORE THEN AND TURNS WINDS MORE SOUTH AT A DIMINISHED SPEED. MODELS
INDICATE THE FRONT MAY SAG BACK SOUTH OF THE LAKE TOWARD
EVENING...POSSIBLY DUE TO LAKE BREEZE ENHANCEMENT BUT THEN SHOULD
START TO LIFT BACK INTO THE LAKE LATER IN THE NIGHT AND CONTINUE OFF
TO THE NORTH ON THU. THE WARM AIR FLOWING OVER THE COLD LAKE SHOULD
PROVIDE A STABILIZING EFFECT SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP WINDS UNDER 20
KTS UNTIL THU NIGHT WHEN LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES MORE AND STARTS TO
TURN SW. THIS WILL PROVIDE MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR WINDS TO
INCREASE TO AT LEAST 15 TO 25 KNOTS.
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI MORNING WILL
TURN THE WINDS TO THE WEST AND AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN CAN SEE WINDS
AROUND 30 KNOTS SO WILL INCREASE THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
PUSHES INTO OH TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE WINDS FRI NIGHT THRU SAT SO
THE SCA WILL END. NOT SURE IF THE ICE IS BROKEN UP ENOUGH OR NOT BUT
THIS MAY BE THE EVENT WHERE THE ICE TYPICALLY GETS PUSHED INTO THE
EAST END OF THE LAKE WITH THE STRONGER SW TO W WINDS.
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SUN NIGHT TO ALLOW
LIGHT WINDS TO TURN SE AND START TO INCREASE SOME.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LEZ142>146.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GARNET
NEAR TERM...GARNET
SHORT TERM...GARNET
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1213 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...A COMPLEX OF HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...AND
MAY AFFECT KOUN/KOKC IN THE 18Z TO 20Z TIMEFRAME. THEREAFTER...A
SECOND ROUND OF MORE ISOLATED TSRA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
MAINLY NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND TREK EASTWARD. WILL
INTRODUCE TEMPO GROUPS AND VCTS...AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS RELATIVELY
LOW ON TIMING AND IMPACTS TO ANY SINGLE TERMINAL. KPNC...ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...PROBABLY HAS THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING
TSRA IN THE 21Z THROUGH 00Z TIMEFRAME. SHRA/TSRA MAY LINGER BEYOND
00Z...WITH DECREASING INTENSITY. MVFR/IFR CIGS THEN LOOK TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A
NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT FROM 09Z THROUGH 18Z THURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015/
DISCUSSION...
UPDATED POPS FOR LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT
FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION. SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS SHOULD REACH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 1230-130 PM. STILL EXPECT SEVERE STORMS
WILL DEVELOP IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...MAINLY AFTER 3-4
PM. A LITTLE UNSURE ABOUT RED FLAG WARNING IN FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA
BUT DRY AIR SHOULD REACH AREAS WEST OF BUFFALO...WOODWARD AND ELK
CITY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....
AVIATION...
A STATIONARY FRONT VERY NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER MAY SAG A LITTLE
FARTHER S THIS MORNING...BEFORE MOVING N AS A WARM FRONT LATER
TODAY. IF IT MOVES S OF KGAG/KWWR/KPNC EARLY THIS MORNING...LOW
CLOUDS AND BR/FG COULD MOVE INTO THOSE SITES...BUT SHOULD BE
SHORT-LIVED. TSRA MAY FORM THIS MORNING...MOST LIKELY ALONG
I-44...AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE ELEVATED IN NATURE...SO NOT LIKELY
SEVERE. MUCH MORE ROBUST TSRA...POSSIBLY WITH SEVERE
WEATHER...OUTFLOW...AND OTHER TYPICAL AVIATION HAZARDS...WILL
DEVELOP AROUND MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING IF THE LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION CAN BE OVERCOME. THIS IS MOST LIKELY TO HAPPEN AT
KPNC...BUT IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES. TSRA SHOULD
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS...BUT LESS SEVERE...OVERNIGHT AS THE DRYLINE
AND A COLD FRONT BEGIN TO ADVANCE E. LOW CEILINGS ARE LIKELY
TOMORROW MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE DRYLINE/FRONT COMBINATION.
CMS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015/
DISCUSSION...
AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL WAVE MAY GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON OVER NORTH
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. THESE SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD BE ELEVATED...AND
WOULD POSE LITTLE OR NO RISK OF PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER.
THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC...AS A RATHER STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
WILL REDUCE THE ABILITY OF STORMS TO DEVELOP IN AN OTHERWISE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. WE CONTINUE WITH
RELATIVELY LOW PROBABILITIES OF RAIN...BUT IT IS STILL THE CASE
THAT ANY STORM OR STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO WORK WITH. THE PRESENCE OF A DRYLINE AND
STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIKELY OVERCOME THE CAP...AT LEAST NEAR THE
KANSAS BORDER...THIS AFTERNOON. THAT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
GENERATE NEW CONVECTION AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO OVERCOME THE WEAKER PARTS OF THE CAP.
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT.
STORMS WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND AN
APPARENTLY SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. IN
ADDITION TO THE SLOWNESS...IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL NOT GO
VERY FAR SOUTH...AND RETURN MOISTURE WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK
INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY EVENING...ELIMINATING THE ONLY
DAY THAT HAD BEEN FORECAST TO BE COMPLETELY RAIN-FREE BETWEEN NOW
AND THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PROBABLY BECOME FAIRLY NUMEROUS OVER THE
WEEKEND...THEN DIMINISH SLOWLY IN PROBABILITY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
ALSO PROBLEMATIC TODAY IS THE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. ALL MODELS SHOW THE DRYLINE FARTHER
WEST THAN BEFORE...AND NONE OF THEM SUPPORT A RED FLAG WARNING
OUTSIDE THE NEW WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM
WOODWARD TO SAYRE. THE HRRR DOES SHOW THE DRYLINE FARTHER EAST
THAN THIS...BUT DOES NOT HAVE SUFFICIENT WIND SPEEDS OUTSIDE THIS
AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 63 78 49 72 / 40 10 10 10
HOBART OK 61 78 46 73 / 20 10 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 66 84 51 74 / 30 10 10 10
GAGE OK 53 71 39 75 / 10 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 60 74 44 72 / 40 10 10 0
DURANT OK 66 77 53 73 / 30 30 40 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-009-010-
014-021.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
06/84
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1126 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED POPS FOR LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT
FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION. SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS SHOULD REACH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 1230-130 PM. STILL EXPECT SEVERE STORMS
WILL DEVELOP IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...MAINLY AFTER 3-4
PM. A LITTLE UNSURE ABOUT RED FLAG WARNING IN FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA
BUT DRY AIR SHOULD REACH AREAS WEST OF BUFFALO...WOODWARD AND ELK
CITY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....
AVIATION...
A STATIONARY FRONT VERY NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER MAY SAG A LITTLE
FARTHER S THIS MORNING...BEFORE MOVING N AS A WARM FRONT LATER
TODAY. IF IT MOVES S OF KGAG/KWWR/KPNC EARLY THIS MORNING...LOW
CLOUDS AND BR/FG COULD MOVE INTO THOSE SITES...BUT SHOULD BE
SHORT-LIVED. TSRA MAY FORM THIS MORNING...MOST LIKELY ALONG
I-44...AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE ELEVATED IN NATURE...SO NOT LIKELY
SEVERE. MUCH MORE ROBUST TSRA...POSSIBLY WITH SEVERE
WEATHER...OUTFLOW...AND OTHER TYPICAL AVIATION HAZARDS...WILL
DEVELOP AROUND MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING IF THE LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION CAN BE OVERCOME. THIS IS MOST LIKELY TO HAPPEN AT
KPNC...BUT IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES. TSRA SHOULD
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS...BUT LESS SEVERE...OVERNIGHT AS THE DRYLINE
AND A COLD FRONT BEGIN TO ADVANCE E. LOW CEILINGS ARE LIKELY
TOMORROW MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE DRYLINE/FRONT COMBINATION.
CMS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015/
DISCUSSION...
AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL WAVE MAY GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON OVER NORTH
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. THESE SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD BE ELEVATED...AND
WOULD POSE LITTLE OR NO RISK OF PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER.
THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC...AS A RATHER STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
WILL REDUCE THE ABILITY OF STORMS TO DEVELOP IN AN OTHERWISE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. WE CONTINUE WITH
RELATIVELY LOW PROBABILITIES OF RAIN...BUT IT IS STILL THE CASE
THAT ANY STORM OR STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO WORK WITH. THE PRESENCE OF A DRYLINE AND
STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIKELY OVERCOME THE CAP...AT LEAST NEAR THE
KANSAS BORDER...THIS AFTERNOON. THAT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
GENERATE NEW CONVECTION AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO OVERCOME THE WEAKER PARTS OF THE CAP.
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT.
STORMS WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND AN
APPARENTLY SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. IN
ADDITION TO THE SLOWNESS...IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL NOT GO
VERY FAR SOUTH...AND RETURN MOISTURE WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK
INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY EVENING...ELIMINATING THE ONLY
DAY THAT HAD BEEN FORECAST TO BE COMPLETELY RAIN-FREE BETWEEN NOW
AND THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PROBABLY BECOME FAIRLY NUMEROUS OVER THE
WEEKEND...THEN DIMINISH SLOWLY IN PROBABILITY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
ALSO PROBLEMATIC TODAY IS THE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. ALL MODELS SHOW THE DRYLINE FARTHER
WEST THAN BEFORE...AND NONE OF THEM SUPPORT A RED FLAG WARNING
OUTSIDE THE NEW WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM
WOODWARD TO SAYRE. THE HRRR DOES SHOW THE DRYLINE FARTHER EAST
THAN THIS...BUT DOES NOT HAVE SUFFICIENT WIND SPEEDS OUTSIDE THIS
AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 81 63 78 49 / 40 40 10 10
HOBART OK 85 61 78 46 / 30 20 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 81 66 84 51 / 30 30 10 10
GAGE OK 87 53 71 39 / 10 10 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 84 60 74 44 / 40 40 10 10
DURANT OK 79 66 77 53 / 20 30 30 40
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-009-010-
014-021.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
648 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....
&&
.AVIATION...
A STATIONARY FRONT VERY NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER MAY SAG A LITTLE
FARTHER S THIS MORNING...BEFORE MOVING N AS A WARM FRONT LATER
TODAY. IF IT MOVES S OF KGAG/KWWR/KPNC EARLY THIS MORNING...LOW
CLOUDS AND BR/FG COULD MOVE INTO THOSE SITES...BUT SHOULD BE
SHORT-LIVED. TSRA MAY FORM THIS MORNING...MOST LIKELY ALONG
I-44...AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE ELEVATED IN NATURE...SO NOT LIKELY
SEVERE. MUCH MORE ROBUST TSRA...POSSIBLY WITH SEVERE
WEATHER...OUTFLOW...AND OTHER TYPICAL AVIATION HAZARDS...WILL
DEVELOP AROUND MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING IF THE LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION CAN BE OVERCOME. THIS IS MOST LIKELY TO HAPPEN AT
KPNC...BUT IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES. TSRA SHOULD
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS...BUT LESS SEVERE...OVERNIGHT AS THE DRYLINE
AND A COLD FRONT BEGIN TO ADVANCE E. LOW CEILINGS ARE LIKELY
TOMORROW MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE DRYLINE/FRONT COMBINATION.
CMS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015/
DISCUSSION...
AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL WAVE MAY GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON OVER NORTH
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. THESE SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD BE ELEVATED...AND
WOULD POSE LITTLE OR NO RISK OF PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER.
THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC...AS A RATHER STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
WILL REDUCE THE ABILITY OF STORMS TO DEVELOP IN AN OTHERWISE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. WE CONTINUE WITH
RELATIVELY LOW PROBABILITIES OF RAIN...BUT IT IS STILL THE CASE
THAT ANY STORM OR STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO WORK WITH. THE PRESENCE OF A DRYLINE AND
STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIKELY OVERCOME THE CAP...AT LEAST NEAR THE
KANSAS BORDER...THIS AFTERNOON. THAT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
GENERATE NEW CONVECTION AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO OVERCOME THE WEAKER PARTS OF THE CAP.
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT.
STORMS WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND AN
APPARENTLY SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. IN
ADDITION TO THE SLOWNESS...IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL NOT GO
VERY FAR SOUTH...AND RETURN MOISTURE WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK
INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY EVENING...ELIMINATING THE ONLY
DAY THAT HAD BEEN FORECAST TO BE COMPLETELY RAIN-FREE BETWEEN NOW
AND THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PROBABLY BECOME FAIRLY NUMEROUS OVER THE
WEEKEND...THEN DIMINISH SLOWLY IN PROBABILITY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
ALSO PROBLEMATIC TODAY IS THE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. ALL MODELS SHOW THE DRYLINE FARTHER
WEST THAN BEFORE...AND NONE OF THEM SUPPORT A RED FLAG WARNING
OUTSIDE THE NEW WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM
WOODWARD TO SAYRE. THE HRRR DOES SHOW THE DRYLINE FARTHER EAST
THAN THIS...BUT DOES NOT HAVE SUFFICIENT WIND SPEEDS OUTSIDE THIS
AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 82 63 78 49 / 20 30 10 10
HOBART OK 87 61 78 46 / 20 20 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 85 66 84 51 / 20 30 10 10
GAGE OK 92 53 71 39 / 10 10 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 81 60 74 44 / 40 30 10 10
DURANT OK 80 66 77 53 / 20 30 30 40
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR OKZ004-009-010-014-021.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
09/23/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
424 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
.DISCUSSION...
AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL WAVE MAY GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON OVER NORTH
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. THESE SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD BE ELEVATED...AND
WOULD POSE LITTLE OR NO RISK OF PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER.
THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC...AS A RATHER STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
WILL REDUCE THE ABILITY OF STORMS TO DEVELOP IN AN OTHERWISE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. WE CONTINUE WITH
RELATIVELY LOW PROBABILITIES OF RAIN...BUT IT IS STILL THE CASE
THAT ANY STORM OR STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO WORK WITH. THE PRESENCE OF A DRYLINE AND
STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIKELY OVERCOME THE CAP...AT LEAST NEAR THE
KANSAS BORDER...THIS AFTERNOON. THAT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
GENERATE NEW CONVECTION AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO OVERCOME THE WEAKER PARTS OF THE CAP.
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT.
STORMS WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND AN
APPARENTLY SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. IN
ADDITION TO THE SLOWNESS...IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL NOT GO
VERY FAR SOUTH...AND RETURN MOISTURE WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK
INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY EVENING...ELIMINATING THE ONLY
DAY THAT HAD BEEN FORECAST TO BE COMPLETELY RAIN-FREE BETWEEN NOW
AND THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PROBABLY BECOME FAIRLY NUMEROUS OVER THE
WEEKEND...THEN DIMINISH SLOWLY IN PROBABILITY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
ALSO PROBLEMATIC TODAY IS THE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. ALL MODELS SHOW THE DRYLINE FARTHER
WEST THAN BEFORE...AND NONE OF THEM SUPPORT A RED FLAG WARNING
OUTSIDE THE NEW WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM
WOODWARD TO SAYRE. THE HRRR DOES SHOW THE DRYLINE FARTHER EAST
THAN THIS...BUT DOES NOT HAVE SUFFICIENT WIND SPEEDS OUTSIDE THIS
AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 82 63 78 49 / 20 30 10 10
HOBART OK 87 61 78 46 / 20 20 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 85 66 84 51 / 20 30 10 10
GAGE OK 92 53 71 39 / 10 10 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 81 60 74 44 / 40 30 10 10
DURANT OK 80 66 77 53 / 20 30 30 40
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR OKZ004-009-010-014-021.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
09/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1149 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2015
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
RATHER STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AROUND SUNRISE AT ALL SITES
WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT
THE EXPECTED COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2015/
..UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM FOR THE
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. RAISED POPS IN
THAT AREA EARLIER THIS EVENING BUT SO FAR HAVE HAD NO CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER. STORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE AFTERNOON FORECAST HAVE BEEN MADE THIS EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 608 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2015/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING
AT ALL TAF SITES WITH FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AREAWIDE BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SITES THIS EVENING BUT
CHANCES ARE LOW. MORE WIDESPREAD... POSSIBLE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AFFECT ALL SITES BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM WEST OF KANSAS CITY INTO NW
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A VERY UNSTABLE BUT STRONGLY CAPPED
AIRMASS RESIDING OVER EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR. TEMPS ALONG AND
SE OF THE FRONT HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90...AND ALSO
A SUBTLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER STORMS PUSHING THROUGH SW
MISSOURI AT THIS TIME. NO SIGNIFICANT UPPER AIR FORCING AT THIS
POINT...BUT ISOLATED STORMS STILL MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE SFC FRONT
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING
AS HRRR AND TO A LESSER EXTENT OUR LOCALLY RUN 5KM WRF CONTINUE TO
INDICATE. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE CAPE AND AT LEAST MODERATE
SHEAR ANY STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE SHOULD UPDRAFTS BE
SUSTAINED... LARGE HAIL AND WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. CAP WILL
REMAIN WITH US FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ONLY A
LIMITED CHANCE OF STORMS NEAR KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS.
UNSTABLE AND CAPPED ENVIRONMENT REMAINS WITH US WEDNESDAY...
HOWEVER WITH UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES DURING THE DAY...MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
AND A POTENTIAL LEAD SHORT WAVE/ JET STREAK SHOULD HELP ERODE THE
CAP ENOUGH FOR SOME STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE FROM
CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHERN OK. MOST LIKELY TIME WOULD BE 21-00Z
HOWEVER EARLIER RUNS OF THE NAM HAVE SHOWN SOME EARLIER
DEVELOPMENT THAN THAT. WIND PROFILES SUGGEST THAT ONCE A STORM
DEVELOPS IT WILL QUICKLY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR AND POSE A THREAT
FOR VERY LARGE GAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...AND SOME DEGREE OF
TORNADO POTENTIAL. OVERALL STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FAIRLY LIMITED THROUGH WED NIGHT DUE TO PERSISTENT CAP ISSUES.
MAIN UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EAST THURSDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT OVERTAKING THE DRY LINE AND LIKELY PUSHING THROUGH PARTS OF
NE OKLAHOMA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. CONTINUED MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THU
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST OK AND NORTHWEST AR.
SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST A MORE LINEAR STORM MODE AT THIS TIME.
STORMS WILL END THU EVENING WITH A COOLER AND STABLE AIRMASS
SETTLING OVER THE AREA FRIDAY.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BY THIS
WEEKEND AND WITH THE PRESENCE OF A SFC BOUNDARY IN THE AREA...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THIS UPPER LOW WILL
ULTIMATELY TACK A MUCH MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...ANY SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS DURING THIS TIME REMAIN EXTREMELY UNCERTAIN.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PENDLETON OR
1025 AM PDT WED APR 8 2015
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
.UPDATE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING...EXCEPT A FEW BREAKS OVER THE YAKIMA VALLEY
EXTENDING DOWN INTO CENTRAL OREGON. CURRENT RADAR IS INDICATING A
FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND
BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS...ANYTHING THAT FALLS WILL BE VERY LIGHT
THROUGH 18Z. BY 19-21Z LATEST HRRR AND OTHER SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEVADA. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE FROM ABOUT 21Z
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING. AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING
SHOWERS AND ANY LINGERING STORMS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE
AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. AFTER 06Z MOST AREAS
WILL DRY OUT WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING OVER THE NORTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS AND ESPECIALLY WALLOWA COUNTY WHERE THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHC TO LOW END CHC FOR RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BETWEEN 4500 TO 5200 FEET
THIS AFTERNOON LOWERING SLIGHTLY TO BETWEEN 4200 TO 4700 FEET
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES LOOKED FINE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND BASINS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
THIS AFTERNOON AND THE MOUNTAINS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THE MOUNTAINS AND
HIGHER PLATEAUS...INCLUDING CENTRAL OREGON...WILL FALL INTO THE 20S
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AN BECOME BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AT 8 TO 16 MPH FOR MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...ONE OF THE
WINDIER SPOTS WILL BE THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY WHERE WINDS OF AROUND
20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. 77
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A LOW OFF THE COAST WILL KEEP A BKN DECK OF CLOUDS GENERALLY
BETWEEN 6000-8000 FEET OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BUT
LOCALLY LOWER AROUND KRDM AND KBDN. AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 21Z. NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION VCTS OR -TSRA IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH KRDM,
KBDN AND KDLS WILL HAVE GUSTS TO 20 KTS AFTER 21Z...SHOWERS EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH AFTER 03-05Z THIS EVENING AT ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 415 AM PDT WED APR 8 2015/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. A LOW CENTER AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
WILL WEAKEN AND SLIDE EAST TO WYOMING TODAY. THIS LOW HAS BEEN
SPREADING MOISTURE NORTH INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON EARLY
THIS MORNING. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE HAS
BEEN LIMITED THIS MORNING, MAINLY OVER CENTRAL OREGON. UPSLOPE
AFFECTS HAVE BEEN CAUSING LOCALLY ENHANCED RAIN AND/OR SNOW SOUTH
AND WEST OF BEND. THIS PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
BEFORE THEN, LOCAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR TWO COULD ACCUMULATE
OVER THESE UPSLOPE AREAS. LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING,
COLD AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER OVER THE AREA. ALSO
STRAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE ARE, THOUGH WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO INHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE GORGE SOUTH
TO CENTRAL OREGON. THE SHOWERS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER
THE BLUES AND WALLOWA COUNTY. A WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY LOOKS TO DRIFT
OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. THIS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE A FEW
SHOWERS TO OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES. THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING, AND LARGELY END AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 90
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE TOWARD WASHINGTON AND OREGON BRINGING WIND, RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN BEHIND A
COLD FRONT AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX TO THE SURFACE. SOME WIND
ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP SNOW LEVELS TO
2000-3000 FT BY SUNDAY MORNING. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WESTERLY
FLOW WITH SOME EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL BE OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON
AND OREGON. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. AND TUESDAY MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. ECMWF
HAS A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER WASHINGTON AND OREGON. GFS HAS A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC MONDAY THAT MOVES INLAND
TUESDAY. GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW ENOUGH SPREAD TO COVER BOTH
POSIBILITIES. THIS LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN ANY FORECAST TIMING AND
STRENGTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. GIVEN THE MODELS DIFFERENCES MADE FEW
CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. COONFIELD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 60 37 63 38 / 30 30 10 20
ALW 62 42 64 42 / 30 30 20 20
PSC 65 38 67 37 / 20 30 10 10
YKM 62 37 64 35 / 30 20 10 10
HRI 64 37 67 34 / 30 30 10 10
ELN 62 36 65 33 / 30 20 10 10
RDM 54 24 61 28 / 40 20 10 10
LGD 55 33 57 34 / 40 40 20 30
GCD 56 32 62 33 / 50 40 20 20
DLS 63 40 68 40 / 20 20 10 10
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
77/91/91
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PENDLETON OR
917 AM PDT WED APR 8 2015
.UPDATE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING...EXCEPT A FEW BREAKS OVER THE YAKIMA VALLEY
EXTENDING DOWN INTO CENTRAL OREGON. CURRENT RADAR IS INDICATING A
FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND
BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS...ANYTHING THAT FALLS WILL BE VERY LIGHT
THROUGH 18Z. BY 19-21Z LATEST HRRR AND OTHER SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEVADA. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE FROM ABOUT 21Z
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING. AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING
SHOWERS AND ANY LINGERING STORMS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE
AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. AFTER 06Z MOST AREAS
WILL DRY OUT WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING OVER THE NORTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS AND ESPECIALLY WALLOWA COUNTY WHERE THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHC TO LOW END CHC FOR RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BETWEEN 4500 TO 5200 FEET
THIS AFTERNOON LOWERING SLIGHTLY TO BETWEEN 4200 TO 4700 FEET
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES LOOKED FINE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND BASINS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
THIS AFTERNOON AND THE MOUNTAINS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THE MOUNTAINS AND
HIGHER PLATEAUS...INCLUDING CENTRAL OREGON...WILL FALL INTO THE 20S
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AN BECOME BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AT 8 TO 16 MPH FOR MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...ONE OF THE
WINDIER SPOTS WILL BE THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY WHERE WINDS OF AROUND
20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. 77
&&
.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 415 AM PDT WED APR 8 2015/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. A LOW CENTER AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
WILL WEAKEN AND SLIDE EAST TO WYOMING TODAY. THIS LOW HAS BEEN
SPREADING MOISTURE NORTH INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON EARLY
THIS MORNING. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE HAS
BEEN LIMITED THIS MORNING, MAINLY OVER CENTRAL OREGON. UPSLOPE
AFFECTS HAVE BEEN CAUSING LOCALLY ENHANCED RAIN AND/OR SNOW SOUTH
AND WEST OF BEND. THIS PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
BEFORE THEN, LOCAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR TWO COULD ACCUMULATE
OVER THESE UPSLOPE AREAS. LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING,
COLD AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER OVER THE AREA. ALSO
STRAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE ARE, THOUGH WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO INHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE GORGE SOUTH
TO CENTRAL OREGON. THE SHOWERS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER
THE BLUES AND WALLOWA COUNTY. A WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY LOOKS TO DRIFT
OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. THIS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE A FEW
SHOWERS TO OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES. THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING, AND LARGELY END AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 90
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE TOWARD WASHINGTON AND OREGON BRINGING WIND, RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN BEHIND A
COLD FRONT AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX TO THE SURFACE. SOME WIND
ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP SNOW LEVELS TO
2000-3000 FT BY SUNDAY MORNING. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WESTERLY
FLOW WITH SOME EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL BE OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON
AND OREGON. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. AND TUESDAY MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. ECMWF
HAS A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER WASHINGTON AND OREGON. GFS HAS A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC MONDAY THAT MOVES INLAND
TUESDAY. GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW ENOUGH SPREAD TO COVER BOTH
POSIBILITIES. THIS LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN ANY FORECAST TIMING AND
STRENGTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. GIVEN THE MODELS DIFFERENCES MADE FEW
CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. COONFIELD
AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A LOW OFF THE COAST WILL KEEP SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
GENERALLY ABOVE 5000 FEET OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 20Z. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
MENTION VCTS OR -TSRA IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW
15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH KRDM, KBDN AND KDLS WILL HAVE
GUSTS TO 20 KTS AFTER 21Z...SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER 03Z
THIS EVENING AT ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 60 37 63 38 / 30 30 10 20
ALW 62 42 64 42 / 30 30 20 20
PSC 65 38 67 37 / 20 30 10 10
YKM 62 37 64 35 / 30 20 10 10
HRI 64 37 67 34 / 30 30 10 10
ELN 62 36 65 33 / 30 20 10 10
RDM 54 24 61 28 / 40 20 10 10
LGD 55 33 57 34 / 40 40 20 30
GCD 56 32 62 33 / 50 40 20 20
DLS 63 40 68 40 / 20 20 10 10
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
77/91/91
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
1013 PM PDT TUE APR 7 2015
.UPDATE...UPDATED POPS TO TAPER OFF WEST SIDE POPS TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS FARTHER TO THE
EAST. /FB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 858 PM PDT TUE APR 7 2015/
DISCUSSION...THE CLOSED LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED INTO NW
CALIFORNIA. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE E-SE AND THE
CENTER IS EXPECTED TO BE IN NORTHERN NEVADA BY LATE TONIGHT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONTINUED UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION INTO THE
WARNER MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. SHORT
TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE WARNERS AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN KLAMATH COUNTY,
WHILE ROADCAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES
PASSES. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT SUITE OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT.
NEW MODEL RUNS SHOW NO BIG DEPARTURE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SO
NO UPDATES WILL ISSUED THIS EVENING. /FB
AVIATION...FOR THE 08/00Z TAF CYCLE...THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VISIBILITY FROM THE
CASCADES EASTWARD...WITH AREAS OF IFR IN LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS. TERRAIN OBSCURATION WILL BE WIDESPREAD.
WEST OF THE CASCADES...EXPECT A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS IN ISO/SCT
SHOWERS WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE TO
VFR FOR MOST AREAS MID TO LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY, THOUGH ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST. SPILDE
MARINE...UPDATED 400 PM PDT TUESDAY APR 07 2015...MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS. A LARGER WESTERLY SWELL WILL ARRIVE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. SPILDE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 PM PDT TUE APR 7 2015/
SHORT TERM...THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST IN NORTHWEST
CAL IS MOVING SOUTH. WET SNOW CONTINUES IN SISKIYOU COUNTY, BUT
IT`S BECOMING SHOWERY AND ROADS ARE WET. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A DEFORMATION ZONE OF PRECIPITATION SETTING
UP EAST OF THE CASCADES LATER THIS EVENING AND LASTING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
CORE OF HEAVIEST QPF. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE DEFORMATION ZONE
WELL AND THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WILL LEAN TOWARDS THAT SOLUTION.
GIVEN THAT THIS WILL SET UP AT NIGHT, THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR SNOW TO ACCUMULATE ON ROADS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR
MOST AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE CASCADES WILL ALSO GET
ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT, THUS HAVE EXTENDED THE END TIME OF THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. DETAILS CAN BE
FOUND AT WSWMFR. GIVEN THE ABOVE MENTIONED SCENARIO, HAVE
INCREASED POPS...QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS SIGNIFICANTLY, BUT IT STILL
MAY NOT BE ENOUGH. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT
THIS AND ADJUST AMOUNTS HIGHER IF LATER MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE
WEAKENING IN THE MORNING. RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL COME UP TO AROUND
5000 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON, SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY
ACCUMULATIONS FROM ABOUT MID MORNING WEDNESDAY ON DUE TO WARMING
ROAD TEMPERATURES AND SPOTTY PRECIPITATION.
DRY AND MILDER WEATHER FINALLY RETURNS THURSDAY AND CONTINUES INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
MOST OF FRIDAY WILL BE DRY, THEN THE NEXT FRONT WILL REACH THE
COAST TOWARDS FRIDAY EVENING. THE GFS AND NAM ARE SLOWER WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT WHILE THE EC IS FASTER. FOR NOW WENT WITH A
BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO, BUT THE UPPER FLOW IS WEST OT NORTHWEST
WHICH NORMALLY LEADS TO QUICKER ARRIVAL TIMES OF FRONTS.
-PETRUCELLI
LONG TERM...THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE LONG TERM WITH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THE EC IS A BIT FASTER TO PUSH THE FRONT
INLAND ON SATURDAY COMPARED TO THE GFS BUT BOTH MODELS HAVE IT
PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. ZONAL FLOW WILL
SET UP FOR SUNDAY AND THE GFS IS HINTING AT SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS
CONTINUING ALONG THE CASCADES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY
ALSO BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA...MAINLY FROM THE UMPQUA DIVIDE NORTH. OTHERWISE, SUNDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE DRIEST DAY, RELATIVELY, THROUGH THE EXTENDED TERM. BY
MONDAY MORNING, THE MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH. THE GFS IS FASTER
AND DEEPER WITH THE NEXT TROUGH, MEANING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
LOWER SNOW LEVELS COMPARED TO THE EC...WHICH IS SLOWER BY ABOUT 12
HOURS AND NOT AS DEEP WITH THE TROUGH. EITHER WAY, IT LOOKS LIKE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED
TERM. MND
AVIATION...FOR THE 08/00Z TAF CYCLE...THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VISIBILITY FROM THE
CASCADES EASTWARD...WITH AREAS OF IFR IN LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS. TERRAIN OBSCURATION WILL BE WIDESPREAD.
WEST OF THE CASCADES...EXPECT A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS IN ISO/SCT
SHOWERS WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE TO
VFR FOR MOST AREAS MID TO LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY, THOUGH ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST. SPILDE
MARINE...UPDATED 500 PM PDT TUESDAY APR 07 2015...MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS. A LARGER WESTERLY SWELL WILL ARRIVE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. SPILDE
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ORZ029>031-624-625.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ORZ027-028-617-621-623.
CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ085-285.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
$$
FJB/CC/FJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1110 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHWEST INTO THE STATE FROM THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MOIST AND COOL CONDITIONS
OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK TO MILDER VALUES NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CENTRAL PA REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN A COOL AIR DAMMING REGIME
THIS EVENING BETWEEN STRONG-COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM TO OUR WEST AND
SOUTH.
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC AT 0130Z SHOWS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL PA IN REGION OF LG SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
LIFTING UP THE OHIO VALLEY. WILL MAINTAIN CAT TO LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AS LL JET AND
ASSOC PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS OVERRUN BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST. ALTHOUGH
THE ENTIRE CWA REMAINS IN THE STABLE AIR EAST OF THE FRONT...ELEVATED
TSRA IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
COUNTIES...WHERE RAP SHOWS SOME MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO ADDED AREAS OF DZ OVERNIGHT...DUE TO NEARLY
SATURATED SFC-850MB LYR AND SERLY FLOW/OROGRAPHIC LIFT.
A LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SEEMS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI
AM...AS SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST OF PA AND APPROACHING COLD
FRONT REMAINS WEST OF THE STATE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 40-45F OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HAVING THE COLD
/OCCLUDED/ FRONT TRACKING SE ACROSS THE CWA BTWN 15Z-20Z. LOOKS
LIKE ONLY THE S TIER COUNTIES WILL BRIEFLY BREAK INTO THE WARM
SECTOR AND LATEST SREF/GEFS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME MARGINAL
CAPES ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES DURING THE AFTN. SPC CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS AREA FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR WX IN THE AFTN.
EARLY LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY DRIZZLE SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND POSS TSRA AS POTENT MID LVL SHORTWAVE PUSHES FRONT
THRU DURING THE LATE AM AND AFTN. ALTHOUGH RAINFALL AMTS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT /LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH BASED ON
MDL BLEND/ HAVE INCREASED POPS TO NR 90 PCT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
BASED ON SREF/GEFS PLUME DATA. ALSO...GIVEN POSITIVE PWAT
ANOMALIES OF 2-3SD AND STRONG LG SCALE FORCING ACCOMPANYING
FRONT...HARD TO SEE MANY SPOTS MISSING OUT ON AT LEAST SOME RAIN
FRIDAY.
DESPITE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WILL REBOUND FRIDAY AS LOW
LVL COOL AIR IS SCOURED OUT. WIDESPREAD 60S EXPECTED FOR
HIGHS...WITH L70S EVEN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE S TIER VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY FRI NIGHT...WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A RATHER STRONG SMALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SAT. DYNAMICS LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...TAPERING BACK TO SPRINKLES ON SAT AS THEY MOVE AWAY.
ANY SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
BREEZY WITH A QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR ON SAT...THEN WARMER AIR
RETURNS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS RIDGE BUILDS IN.
MENTION OF POPS RETURNS LATE MONDAY INTO TUE AS ANOTHER FRONT
TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. AGAIN...PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK TO REMAIN ON
THE LIGHT SIDE.
SHARP RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR MID/LATE WEEK AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING A
PERIOD OF MILD WEATHER. WEAKENING SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
MAY BRING SHOWERY WEATHER BACK INTO PA FOR THU/FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN PA
THEN SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS AS COLD AIR IS DAMMED UP AGAINST THE
MTNS...SUPPORTING THE COOL AND MOIST AIR MASS COVERING MOST OF
CENTRAL PA.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY HAS/WILL PUSHED
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO PA. RAIN AND A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
AIRSPACE. BEHIND THIS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING IN THE MOIST AIRMASS.
THE PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD IFR-MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE THE REGION INTO THE OVERNIGHT. SOME
IMPROVEMENT HAS MANAGED TO CREEP INTO MY FAR WESTERN
TERMINALS...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY NOT BE LONG LIVED AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING WESTERN PA PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LLWS IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS SFC WINDS
REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...AND WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 30-50KT.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...CLEARING THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY BY 21-00Z. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST WILL
FINALLY SCOUR OUT THE STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS WITH WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY WITH THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...VFR.
MON...COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH LOCALLY REDUCED CONDITIONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1006 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHWEST INTO THE STATE FROM THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MOIST AND COOL CONDITIONS
OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK TO MILDER VALUES NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CENTRAL PA REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN A COOL AIR DAMMING REGIME
THIS EVENING BETWEEN STRONG-COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM TO OUR WEST AND
SOUTH.
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC AT 0130Z SHOWS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL PA IN REGION OF LG SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
LIFTING UP THE OHIO VALLEY. WILL MAINTAIN CAT TO LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AS LL JET AND
ASSOC PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS OVERRUN BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST. ALTHOUGH
THE ENTIRE CWA REMAINS IN THE STABLE AIR EAST OF THE FRONT...ELEVATED
TSRA IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
COUNTIES...WHERE RAP SHOWS SOME MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO ADDED AREAS OF DZ OVERNIGHT...DUE TO NEARLY
SATURATED SFC-850MB LYR AND SERLY FLOW/OROGRAPHIC LIFT.
A LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SEEMS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI
AM...AS SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST OF PA AND APPROACHING COLD
FRONT REMAINS WEST OF THE STATE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 40-45F OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HAVING THE COLD
/OCCLUDED/ FRONT TRACKING SE ACROSS THE CWA BTWN 15Z-20Z. LOOKS
LIKE ONLY THE S TIER COUNTIES WILL BRIEFLY BREAK INTO THE WARM
SECTOR AND LATEST SREF/GEFS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME MARGINAL
CAPES ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES DURING THE AFTN. SPC CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS AREA FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR WX IN THE AFTN.
EARLY LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY DRIZZLE SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND POSS TSRA AS POTENT MID LVL SHORTWAVE PUSHES FRONT
THRU DURING THE LATE AM AND AFTN. ALTHOUGH RAINFALL AMTS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT /LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH BASED ON
MDL BLEND/ HAVE INCREASED POPS TO NR 90 PCT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
BASED ON SREF/GEFS PLUME DATA. ALSO...GIVEN POSITIVE PWAT
ANOMALIES OF 2-3SD AND STRONG LG SCALE FORCING ACCOMPANYING
FRONT...HARD TO SEE MANY SPOTS MISSING OUT ON AT LEAST SOME RAIN
FRIDAY.
DESPITE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WILL REBOUND FRIDAY AS LOW
LVL COOL AIR IS SCOURED OUT. WIDESPREAD 60S EXPECTED FOR
HIGHS...WITH L70S EVEN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE S TIER VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY FRI NIGHT...WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A RATHER STRONG SMALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SAT. DYNAMICS LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...TAPERING BACK TO SPRINKLES ON SAT AS THEY MOVE AWAY.
ANY SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
BREEZY WITH A QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR ON SAT...THEN WARMER AIR
RETURNS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS RIDGE BUILDS IN.
MENTION OF POPS RETURNS LATE MONDAY INTO TUE AS ANOTHER FRONT
TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. AGAIN...PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK TO REMAIN ON
THE LIGHT SIDE.
SHARP RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR MID/LATE WEEK AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING A
PERIOD OF MILD WEATHER. WEAKENING SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
MAY BRING SHOWERY WEATHER BACK INTO PA FOR THU/FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD IFR-MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE THE REGION INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
SOME IMPROVEMENT HAS MANAGED TO CREEP INTO MY FAR WESTERN
TERMINALS...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY NOT BE LONG LIVED AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING WESTERN PA PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LLWS IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS SFC WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST...AND WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AT 30-50KT.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...CLEARING THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY BY 21-00Z. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST WILL
FINALLY SCOUR OUT THE STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS WITH WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY WITH THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...VFR.
MON...COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH LOCALLY REDUCED CONDITIONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
601 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA
AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL COMBINE TO KEEP MOIST
AND COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA DURING FRIDAY.
AFTER A WARM DAY ON FRIDAY...MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW
FOR SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK TO MILDER CONDITIONS
NEXT WEEK. THERE COULD BE A SHOWER FROM TIME TO TIME NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CENTRAL PA REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN A COOL AIR DAMMING REGIME
BETWEEN STRONG-COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE APPALACHIANS. MAIN
FEATURE OF NOTE THIS EVENING IS WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE/MCV
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP AT 21Z SHOWS
WEAKENING CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE ALLEGHENY MTNS AS IT
ENCOUNTERS COOL/STABLE AIR MASS. HOWEVER...LG SCALE FORCING AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A PERIOD OF SHOWERS ACROSS
MOST OF CENTRAL PA AS IT MOVES THRU THIS EVENING. RADAR TRENDS AND
LATEST HRRR OUTPUT SUGGEST THE SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING THE EASTERN
COUNTIES BY ARND 03Z.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS EVENING/S SHORTWAVE...EXPECT DRY CONDS FOR
MOST OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...WHERE SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE TOWARD DAWN IN ASSOC
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING STORM
SYSTEM/SOUTHERLY LL JET OVR THE MIDWEST.
BLEND OF LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS TEMPS NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE U30S OVR THE HIGH TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF
KIPT...TO THE M40S ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER COOL/CLOUDY DAY ON TAP FOR THURSDAY...AS CENTRAL PA
REMAINS IN CAD REGIME. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHC OF
SHOWERS...ESP OVR THE NW MTNS BY AFTN...AS SWRLY LL JET ASSOC
WITH DEVELOPING LOW OVR THE MIDWEST APPROACHES. GEFS 8H MFLUX
VALUES SKYROCKET TO 5SD ABV NORMAL ACROSS NW PA BY 00Z THU. BASED
ON LATEST ENSEMBLE OUTPUT...WILL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS
THE NW MTNS...TO CHC ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
LIFTED INDEX PROGS INDICATE ALL OF CENTRAL PA WILL REMAIN STRONGLY
DAMMED. HOWEVER...ELEVATED TSRA A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE
NW COUNTIES LATE IN THE DAY.
HIGHS WILL BE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF TODAY IN MOST AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO PACKAGE FROM RECENT DAYS.
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO UP TEMPERATURES THU NIGHT...GIVEN THAT 850 MB
FRONT IS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...AND VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
ALSO DID UP TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...GIVEN NEW GUIDANCE AND THAT
850 MB FRONT IS NORTH OF THE AREA. HAVE INCREASING CONCERN FOR
AT LEAST A FEW STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. EARLY ON...FAR WEST
MAY SEE ONE...GIVEN STRONGER WIND FIELDS TO THE WEST.
LATER ON...TEMPERATURES IN THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE...WITH DEWPTS
IN THE 50S...MAY LEAD SOME STORMS LATER IN THE AFT...EVEN WITH NOT
THE BEST HEIGHT FALLS.
ONE ONLY HAS TO LOOK OVER COLD LAKE ERIE. CONVECTION FORMED ALONG
THE LAKE SHORE...WITH JUST SOME MINOR AMTS OF HEATING THIS AFT.
ANYWAY...DID LOWER TEMPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT. A RATHER
STRONG SMALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FOR LATE
FRIDAY INTO SAT.
MAIN THING WAS TO PUT BACK IN A CHC OF SHOWERS FOR LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...GIVEN STRONG DYNAMICS
WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW. PAST EXPERIENCE WITH THIS SITUATION
USUALLY LEADS TO SOME SHOWERS.
OVERALL...THE WEEKEND LOOKS SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND. BREEZY AND
COOL ON SAT. WARMER ON SUNDAY.
DID UP POPS TO 30 PERCENT FROM LATE MONDAY INTO WED MORNING TO
FIT IN WITH OTHERS BETTER. STILL SOME SPREAD ON THE DETAILS. LOOKS
LIKE MODELS AND HPC HAVE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA ON TUE.
FRONT MAY NOT CLEAR TO WED. DID UP TEMPERATURES SOME TOO.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT
IS STALLED SOUTH OF PA. THIS STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOCKED IN PLACE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
AREAS OF DRIZZLE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE THE RULE WITH
LITTLE IF ANY IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST AT 5-10 MPH THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE REDUCTIONS WITH RAIN SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SAT-MON...VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
336 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA
AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL COMBINE TO KEEP MOIST
AND COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA DURING FRIDAY.
AFTER A WARM DAY ON FRIDAY...MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW
FOR SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK TO MILDER CONDITIONS
NEXT WEEK. THERE COULD BE A SHOWER FROM TIME TO TIME NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WE REMAIN FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN A COOL AIR DAMMING REGIME BETWEEN
STRONG-COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND A STATIONARY
FRONT WHICH DOG LEGS FROM WRN PA SOUTH THROUGH WEST VIRGINIA ALL
THE WAY THROUGH SOUTHERN VA BEFORE TURNING EAST AND OFF THE COAST
NEAR THE DEL MARVA.
ALOFT WE ARE ACTUALLY UNDER A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WITH 500 HEIGHTS
THAT ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE SEASON. HOWEVER THE FAST
WSW FLOW IS SERVING AS A PATHWAY TO FUNNEL WEAK SHORTWAVES AND
MOISTURE OUR WAY FROM THE LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN STATES.
THE WARM-MOIST ADVECTION IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE AS THE SURFACE
HIGH TO OUR NORTH STUBBORNLY MAINTAINS A LOW LEVEL EAST OR
SOUTHEAST FLOW. WHILE THE AREA OF MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS HAS MOVED
OUT OF MY EASTERN ZONES...WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE THREAT FOR MORE
RAIN THROUGH LATE DAY AS THE WEAK LIFT CONTINUES. I EVEN
INTRODUCED A SMALL CHANCE FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. DESPITE HIGH
TEMPS THAT WILL ONLY AVERAGE IN THE 40S OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SHOWN BY THE RAP TO EXCEED 6C/KM
AS THE MOIST WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES...SO SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. FAR
SWRN ZONES MAY BREAK OUT INTO THE MID 50S FOR A SHORT TIME.
CLOUDY...COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC CANADA NOSES SWWD INTO THE STATE ACCOMPANIED
BY A LIGHT EAST TO NE BREEZE. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS AND RIDGE-SHROUDING FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH THE
LOWEST VSBYS ON THE EAST FACING UPPER SLOPES.
MAIN QUESTION WILL CENTER ON HOW MUCH OF THE OHIO CONVECTION CAN
SURVIVE THE TREK INTO OUR WEDGE OF COLD AND STABLE AIR. LATEST
HRRR SHOWS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS FAR NRN PA THROUGH
EARLY EVENING WHILE THE MAIN MCS/BOW ECHO TRACKS OFF TO OUR SOUTH
TOWARD THE DEEPEST INSTABILITY. FOR MOST OF PA THE HRRR SHOWS THE
CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS NOT SHOWING ANY PARTICULAR
ORGANIZATION. A BLEND OF MODEL POPS SHOWS PRETTY MUCH A 50-50 COIN
FLIP FOR RAIN IN MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...BUT THAT SEEMS A PRETTY
ACCURATE REPRESENTATION FOR WHAT IS LIKELY TO OCCUR. ALONG WITH
AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE IT POINTS TO MORE COOL-DAMP CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT.
LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE KEEPS OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
40S...MINIMIZING THE THREAT FOR POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER
OUR FAR NERN ZONES THAT WE WERE CONCERNED WITH EARLIER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY AS THE HIGH ONLY SLOWLY
RETREATS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. LIFTED INDEX PROGS
INDICATE WE REMAIN STRONGLY DAMMED OVER MOST OF THE AREA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHILE WARM MOIST ADVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL
COLD WEDGE KEEPS US VULNERABLE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
AN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM. HARD TO TIME IN ANY PARTICULAR FEATURE
AT THIS RANGE...AS THIS WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON ANY REMNANTS OF OHIO
VALLEY CONVECTION THAT CAN ORGANIZE IN THE HIGH CAPE AIR IN THE
WARM SECTOR.
HIGHS WILL BE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TOW OF TODAY IN MOST AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO PACKAGE FROM RECENT DAYS.
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO UP TEMPERATURES THU NIGHT...GIVEN THAT 850 MB
FRONT IS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...AND VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
ALSO DID UP TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...GIVEN NEW GUIDANCE AND THAT
850 MB FRONT IS NORTH OF THE AREA. HAVE INCREASING CONCERN FOR
AT LEAST A FEW STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. EARLY ON...FAR WEST
MAY SEE ONE...GIVEN STRONGER WIND FIELDS TO THE WEST.
LATER ON...TEMPERATURES IN THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE...WITH DEWPTS
IN THE 50S...MAY LEAD SOME STORMS LATER IN THE AFT...EVEN WITH NOT
THE BEST HEIGHT FALLS.
ONE ONLY HAS TO LOOK OVER COLD LAKE ERIE. CONVECTION FORMED ALONG
THE LAKE SHORE...WITH JUST SOME MINOR AMTS OF HEATING THIS AFT.
ANYWAY...DID LOWER TEMPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT. A RATHER
STRONG SMALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FOR LATE
FRIDAY INTO SAT.
MAIN THING WAS TO PUT BACK IN A CHC OF SHOWERS FOR LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...GIVEN STRONG DYNAMICS
WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW. PAST EXPERIENCE WITH THIS SITUATION
USUALLY LEADS TO SOME SHOWERS.
OVERALL...THE WEEKEND LOOKS SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND. BREEZY AND
COOL ON SAT. WARMER ON SUNDAY.
DID UP POPS TO 30 PERCENT FROM LATE MONDAY INTO WED MORNING TO
FIT IN WITH OTHERS BETTER. STILL SOME SPREAD ON THE DETAILS. LOOKS
LIKE MODELS AND HPC HAVE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA ON TUE.
FRONT MAY NOT CLEAR TO WED. DID UP TEMPERATURES SOME TOO.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT
IS STALLED SOUTH OF PA. THIS STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOCKED IN PLACE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
AREAS OF DRIZZLE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE THE RULE WITH
LITTLE IF ANY IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST AT 5-10 MPH THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE REDUCTIONS WITH RAIN SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SAT-MON...VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
110 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA
AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL COMBINE TO KEEP MOIST
AND COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA DURING FRIDAY.
MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WE REMAIN FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN A COOL AIR DAMMING REGIME BETWEEN
STRONG-COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND A STATIONARY
FRONT WHICH DOG LEGS FROM WRN PA SOUTH THROUGH WEST VIRGINIA ALL
THE WAY THROUGH SOUTHERN VA BEFORE TURNING EAST AND OFF THE COAST
NEAR THE DEL MARVA.
ALOFT WE ARE ACTUALLY UNDER A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WITH 500 HEIGHTS
THAT ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE SEASON. HOWEVER THE FAST
WSW FLOW IS SERVING AS A PATHWAY TO FUNNEL WEAK SHORTWAVES AND
MOISTURE OUR WAY FROM THE LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN STATES.
THE WARM-MOIST ADVECTION IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE AS THE SURFACE
HIGH TO OUR NORTH STUBBORNLY MAINTAINS A LOW LEVEL EAST OR
SOUTHEAST FLOW. WHILE THE AREA OF MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS HAS MOVED
OUT OF MY EASTERN ZONES...WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE THREAT FOR MORE
RAIN THROUGH LATE DAY AS THE WEAK LIFT CONTINUES. I EVEN
INTRODUCED A SMALL CHANCE FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. DESPITE HIGH
TEMPS THAT WILL ONLY AVERAGE IN THE 40S OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SHOWN BY THE RAP TO EXCEED 6C/KM
AS THE MOIST WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES...SO SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. FAR
SWRN ZONES MAY BREAK OUT INTO THE MID 50S FOR A SHORT TIME.
CLOUDY...COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC CANADA NOSES SWWD INTO THE STATE ACCOMPANIED
BY A LIGHT EAST TO NE BREEZE. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS AND RIDGE-SHROUDING FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH THE
LOWEST VSBYS ON THE EAST FACING UPPER SLOPES.
MAIN QUESTION WILL CENTER ON HOW MUCH OF THE OHIO CONVECTION CAN
SURVIVE THE TREK INTO OUR WEDGE OF COLD AND STABLE AIR. LATEST
HRRR SHOWS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS FAR NRN PA THROUGH
EARLY EVENING WHILE THE MAIN MCS/BOW ECHO TRACKS OFF TO OUR SOUTH
TOWARD THE DEEPEST INSTABILITY. FOR MOST OF PA THE HRRR SHOWS THE
CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS NOT SHOWING ANY PARTICULAR
ORGANIZATION. A BLEND OF MODEL POPS SHOWS PRETTY MUCH A 50-50 COIN
FLIP FOR RAIN IN MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...BUT THAT SEEMS A PRETTY
ACCURATE REPRESENTATION FOR WHAT IS LIKELY TO OCCUR. ALONG WITH
AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE IT POINTS TO MORE COOL-DAMP CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT.
LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE KEEPS OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
40S...MINIMIZING THE THREAT FOR POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER
OUR FAR NERN ZONES THAT WE WERE CONCERNED WITH EARLIER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY AS THE HIGH ONLY SLOWLY
RETREATS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. LIFTED INDEX PROGS
INDICATE WE REMAIN STRONGLY DAMMED OVER MOST OF THE AREA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHILE WARM MOIST ADVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL
COLD WEDGE KEEPS US VULNERABLE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
AN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM. HARD TO TIME IN ANY PARTICULAR FEATURE
AT THIS RANGE...AS THIS WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON ANY REMNANTS OF OHIO
VALLEY CONVECTION THAT CAN ORGANIZE IN THE HIGH CAPE AIR IN THE
WARM SECTOR.
HIGHS WILL BE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TOW OF TODAY IN MOST AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARMER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...AS LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELDS INCREASE. WARMEST TEMPERATURES MIGHT END UP
BEING ACROSS WARREN COUNTY.
DID NOT UP TEMPS MUCH FOR FRIDAY...MODELS MOVE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA RATHER FAST.
SOME CHANCE OF A STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE WEST LATER FRIDAY.
THIS BASED ON TIMING AND THE THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE BEST MOISTURE.
HAVE TO WATCH FOR SEVERE...BUT DYNAMICS LIKELY TO LIFT NE AWAY
FROM THE AREA. ALSO TIMING NOT THE BEST.
WHILE WE WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS EACH DAY THIS WEEK...NOT SEEING ANY
LARGE AMTS. THUS NOT SEEING ANY WIDESPREAD HYDRO CONCERNS AT THIS
POINT. ENJOY THE MILDER TEMPERATURES.
RATHER STRONG SMALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SAT.
TOOK OUT SHOWERS AFTER EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. MAIN THING WAS TO
LOWER TEMPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT...GIVEN AIRMASS TO THE NORTH
AND COLD ADVECTION.
WEEKEND SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND. BREEZY AND COOL ON SAT. WARMER
ON SUNDAY.
DID PUT SOME SHOWERS IN THE FAR WEST LATE MONDAY AND ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUE. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING IN.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT
IS STALLED SOUTH OF PA. THIS STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOCKED IN PLACE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
AREAS OF DRIZZLE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE THE RULE WITH
LITTLE IF ANY IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST AT 5-10 MPH THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE REDUCTIONS WITH RAIN SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SAT-MON...VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
758 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA WILL COMBINE
WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC CANADA...TO KEEP MOIST AND
COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN AND DRIZZLE...AND A GENERALLY LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY. MUCH
COOLER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR SATURDAY...WITH EVEN A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE EARLIER LULL IN THE RAIN SHOWERS IS COMING TO AN END AS A
COMPACT AND QUITE FLAT UPPER SHORT WAVE SLIDES EAST OF THE
PENN/OHIO BORDER.
WEAK LLVL RIDGING THROUGH THE SUSQ VALLEY AND SCENT MTNS WILL
CONTINUE THE RELATIVE MIN IN SHOWERS THERE FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
05Z HRRR WAS BLENDED IN TO POPULATE NEAR TERM POPS/WEATHER AND QPF
GRIDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DATA SHOWS A STEADY PROGRESSION
OF SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL PENN DURING THE MID TO LATER MORNING
HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A DISTINCT LULL IN THE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS REMAINING AND JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.
CONSIDERING THE TIGHT TEMP/DWPT SPREAD OF GENERALLY 1-2 DEG F
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES...TEMPS ARE RIGHT NEAR THEIR
MINS. A SLIGHTLY GREATER T/TD SPREAD ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY WILL
ALLOW FOR A 2-4 DEG F TEMP DROP BETWEEN 10-12Z AS THE INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SPREADS EWD INTO THAT AREA.
HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN
TUESDAY...RANGING FROM AROUND 40 DEG ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE WRN POCONOS AND ENDLESS MTNS NW OF KIPT...TO THE MID 50S ON
THE WRN SIDE OF THE ATLANTIC/GOMEX WATER SHED BOUNDARY /NEAR THE
RT 219 CORRIDOR/.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CLOUDY...COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC CANADA RIDGES SWWD INTO THE STATE ACCOMPANIED
BY A LIGHT EAST TO NE BREEZE. AT THE SAME TIME...MEAN TEMPS IN
THE 900-850 MB LAYER WILL INCREASE BY ABOUT 2-3 DEG C /BETWEEN
00Z-12Z THU/. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO RIDGE SHROUDING FOG ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION WITH THE LOWEST VSBYS ON THE EAST-FACING UPPER
SLOPES.
ANOTHER FLAT SHORTWAVE /OR MCV FROM WEAKENING UPSTREAM TSRA/
APPEARS TO MOVE EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND TARGET MUCH OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW TSRA ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING...NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF
WEAK-MDT LEVELS OF MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. ELSEWHERE...A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY WITH BASIN AVG RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 0.10
OF AN INCH /PERHAPS A FEW TENTHS HIGHER THOUGH ACROSS THE LAURELS
- CLOSER TO THE WEAKENING TSRA/.
TEMPS TONIGHT COULD DIP OR STAY 3-5F COOLER THAN MOST GUIDANCE AS
VERY SHALLOW AND ANOMALOUSLY COOL NEAR SFC AIR WILL BE FUNNELED
SWWD FROM THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND HUDSON VALLEY. APPROX 03Z
SREF GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR TONIGHT/S MINS...WHICH SUPPORT A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR -FZRA/-FZDZ ACROSS THE WRN POCONOS AND ENDLESS
MTNS REGION NE OF KIPT. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
ACROSS THE ERN HIGH TERRAIN...TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S WEST OF RT
219 IN WRN PENN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARMER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...AS LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELDS INCREASE. WARMEST TEMPERATURES MIGHT END UP
BEING ACROSS WARREN COUNTY.
DID NOT UP TEMPS MUCH FOR FRIDAY...MODELS MOVE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA RATHER FAST.
SOME CHANCE OF A STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE WEST LATER FRIDAY.
THIS BASED ON TIMING AND THE THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE BEST MOISTURE.
HAVE TO WATCH FOR SEVERE...BUT DYNAMICS LIKELY TO LIFT NE AWAY
FROM THE AREA. ALSO TIMING NOT THE BEST.
WHILE WE WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS EACH DAY THIS WEEK...NOT SEEING ANY
LARGE AMTS. THUS NOT SEEING ANY WIDESPREAD HYDRO CONCERNS AT THIS
POINT. ENJOY THE MILDER TEMPERATURES.
RATHER STRONG SMALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SAT.
TOOK OUT SHOWERS AFTER EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. MAIN THING WAS TO
LOWER TEMPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT...GIVEN AIRMASS TO THE NORTH
AND COLD ADVECTION.
WEEKEND SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND. BREEZY AND COOL ON SAT. WARMER
ON SUNDAY.
DID PUT SOME SHOWERS IN THE FAR WEST LATE MONDAY AND ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUE. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING IN.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE SLIDING OVERHEAD THIS MORNING GENERATING AN AREA OF
SHOWERS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ACROSS CENTRAL
PA...REACHING THE LOWER SUSQ AROUND 14Z. THESE WILL END FROM THE
WEST BY MID MORNING IN THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL MTNS AND BY 18Z IN THE
LOWER SUSQ...WITH JUST SOME DRIZZLE LIKELY THIS AFT. WIDESPREAD
IFR CIG RESTRICTIONS ONGOING WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND
THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH COULD SEE CIGS LIFT ABOVE 1000FT IN THE
EAST FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFT. VSBYS VARIABLE...BUT MOVING FROM
GENERALLY MVFR TO MORE WIDESPREAD VFR LATER THIS MORNING.
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF TO OUR SW WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LOCKED IN PLACE TONIGHT...AS CONDITIONS SETTLE BACK INTO
WIDESPREAD IFR. AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL BE AROUND...WITH RAIN
SLIPPING INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST AT 5-10 MPH THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
WED...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR IN SHRA/PERIODS OF RA.
THU...REDUCTIONS LIKELY IN SCT SHRA.
FRI...REDUCTIONS LIKELY IN SHRA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFT. CHC OF THUNDER AFT.
SAT-SUN...VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
528 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA WILL COMBINE
WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC CANADA...TO KEEP MOIST AND
COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN AND DRIZZLE...AND A GENERALLY LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY. MUCH
COOLER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR SATURDAY...WITH EVEN A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE EARLIER LULL IN THE RAIN SHOWERS IS COMING TO AN END AS A
COMPACT AND QUITE FLAT UPPER SHORT WAVE SLIDES EAST OF THE
PENN/OHIO BORDER.
WEAK LLVL RIDGING THROUGH THE SUSQ VALLEY AND SCENT MTNS WILL
CONTINUE THE RELATIVE MIN IN SHOWERS THERE FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
05Z HRRR WAS BLENDED IN TO POPULATE NEAR TERM POPS/WEATHER AND QPF
GRIDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DATA SHOWS A STEADY PROGRESSION
OF SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL PENN DURING THE MID TO LATER MORNING
HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A DISTINCT LULL IN THE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS REMAINING AND JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.
CONSIDERING THE TIGHT TEMP/DWPT SPREAD OF GENERALLY 1-2 DEG F
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES...TEMPS ARE RIGHT NEAR THEIR
MINS. A SLIGHTLY GREATER T/TD SPREAD ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY WILL
ALLOW FOR A 2-4 DEG F TEMP DROP BETWEEN 10-12Z AS THE INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SPREADS EWD INTO THAT AREA.
HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN
TUESDAY...RANGING FROM AROUND 40 DEG ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE WRN POCONOS AND ENDLESS MTNS NW OF KIPT...TO THE MID 50S ON
THE WRN SIDE OF THE ATLANTIC/GOMEX WATER SHED BOUNDARY /NEAR THE
RT 219 CORRIDOR/.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CLOUDY...COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC CANADA RIDGES SWWD INTO THE STATE ACCOMPANIED
BY A LIGHT EAST TO NE BREEZE. AT THE SAME TIME...MEAN TEMPS IN
THE 900-850 MB LAYER WILL INCREASE BY ABOUT 2-3 DEG C /BETWEEN
00Z-12Z THU/. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO RIDGE SHROUDING FOG ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION WITH THE LOWEST VSBYS ON THE EAST-FACING UPPER
SLOPES.
ANOTHER FLAT SHORTWAVE /OR MCV FROM WEAKENING UPSTREAM TSRA/
APPEARS TO MOVE EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND TARGET MUCH OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW TSRA ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING...NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF
WEAK-MDT LEVELS OF MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. ELSEWHERE...A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY WITH BASIN AVG RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 0.10
OF AN INCH /PERHAPS A FEW TENTHS HIGHER THOUGH ACROSS THE LAURELS
- CLOSER TO THE WEAKENING TSRA/.
TEMPS TONIGHT COULD DIP OR STAY 3-5F COOLER THAN MOST GUIDANCE AS
VERY SHALLOW AND ANOMALOUSLY COOL NEAR SFC AIR WILL BE FUNNELED
SWWD FROM THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND HUDSON VALLEY. APPROX 03Z
SREF GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR TONIGHT/S MINS...WHICH SUPPORT A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR -FZRA/-FZDZ ACROSS THE WRN POCONOS AND ENDLESS
MTNS REGION NE OF KIPT. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
ACROSS THE ERN HIGH TERRAIN...TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S WEST OF RT
219 IN WRN PENN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARMER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...AS LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELDS INCREASE. WARMEST TEMPERATURES MIGHT END UP
BEING ACROSS WARREN COUNTY.
DID NOT UP TEMPS MUCH FOR FRIDAY...MODELS MOVE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA RATHER FAST.
SOME CHANCE OF A STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE WEST LATER FRIDAY.
THIS BASED ON TIMING AND THE THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE BEST MOISTURE.
HAVE TO WATCH FOR SEVERE...BUT DYNAMICS LIKELY TO LIFT NE AWAY
FROM THE AREA. ALSO TIMING NOT THE BEST.
WHILE WE WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS EACH DAY THIS WEEK...NOT SEEING ANY
LARGE AMTS. THUS NOT SEEING ANY WIDESPREAD HYDRO CONCERNS AT THIS
POINT. ENJOY THE MILDER TEMPERATURES.
RATHER STRONG SMALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SAT.
TOOK OUT SHOWERS AFTER EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. MAIN THING WAS TO
LOWER TEMPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT...GIVEN AIRMASS TO THE NORTH
AND COLD ADVECTION.
WEEKEND SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND. BREEZY AND COOL ON SAT. WARMER
ON SUNDAY.
DID PUT SOME SHOWERS IN THE FAR WEST LATE MONDAY AND ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUE. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING IN.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW CIGS AND FOG WILL SUPPORT REDUCED FLYING CONDS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AIRSPACE OVER NIGHT..WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR OR LOWER
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CONDS CAUSED BY FRONTAL BOUNDARY VCNTY
STATE AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THOSE FROM EARLIER TODAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT INTO WED.
OUTLOOK...
WED...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR IN SHRA/PERIODS OF RA.
THU...REDUCTIONS LIKELY IN SCT SHRA.
FRI...REDUCTIONS LIKELY IN SHRA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFT. CHC OF THUNDER AFT.
SAT-SUN...VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
201 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED FROM NORTHERN
VIRGINIA TO CENTRAL OHIO TODAY...BEFORE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL SUPPLY A NORTHEAST FLOW OF COOL...MOIST
AIR INTO THE REGION TODAY...HELPING TO CREATE AREAS OF RAIN AND
DRIZZLE. A DEEP STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES ON FRIDAY...DRAGGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH
PENNSYLVANIA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC AND LATEST...04Z HRRR INDICATE THAT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NRN MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS OF SWRN PENN...CLOSE TO THE
STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE...AND AN INVERTED
TROUGH NEAR THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ERIE.
WEAK LLVL RIDGING THROUGH THE SUSQ VALLEY AND CENT MTNS WILL
CONTINUE THE RELATIVE MIN IN SHOWERS THERE.
CONSIDERING THE TIGHT TEMP/DWPT SPREAD OF GENERALLY 2 DEG F OR
LESS...TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL ANOTHER DEG OR SO BY DAYBREAK...WITH
MINS RANGING FROM THE U30S ACROSS THE NRN AND ERN MTNS...TO THE
UPPER 40S IN OUR SWRN ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
COOL AND DANK CONDITIONS WILL BE THE NORM TODAY IN LLVL CAD
REGIME WITH PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE AND OVERRUNNING ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT PROMOTING LIGHT SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 40S FOR MOST...BUT AREAS ALONG THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT MAY NUDGE INTO THE WARM SECTOR WITH WESTERN WARREN
AND WESTERN SOMERSET COUNTIES REACHING INTO THE 50S /AND PERHAPS
NEAR 60 ACROSS SOUTHWEST SOMERSET COUNTY/.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DID NOT CHANGE POPS OR WEATHER FOR TONIGHT...GIVEN SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE OR RAIN ACROSS THE NE. LOWS NEAR
HUDSON AND JAMES BAY AREA WERE ZERO TO 20 BELOW THIS MORNING. THAT
IS VERY COLD FOR EARLY APRIL.
DETAILS BELOW...
GIVEN THE FACT THAT WE/LL HAVE A 1040 MB SFC HIGH BECOMING PARKED
ACROSS SRN QUEBEC /WHERE CURRENT TEMPS ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
TEENS/ AND 1000 MB AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW INCREASING FROM THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST /AND STAYING THERE FOR A 24-36 HOUR PERIOD/...WENT
SEVERAL DEG F BELOW MODEL TEMPS FOR WED MAXES AND WED NIGHT MINS.
EVEN MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHC FOR LIGHT FZRA ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NCENT MTNS AND WRN POCONOS LATE WED NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
THIS LLVL COLD AIR DAMMING LIKELY TO LINGER INTO THURSDAY AFT.
SOME NEW DETAIL BELOW...
WHILE TEMPS MAY NOT WARM UP TO A GREAT EXTENT THU...AND I LEFT
THEM CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAD...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. VERY TIGHT
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AT 850 MB LATE WED EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL
NY...MINUS 4 TO PLUS 10 IN ABOUT 80 TO 100 MILE BAND.
ANYWAY...WARMER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA LATE THU INTO
FRIDAY...AS LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS INCREASE. WARMEST TEMPERATURES
MIGHT END UP BEING ACROSS WARREN COUNTY.
DID NOT UP TEMPS MUCH FOR FRIDAY...MODELS MOVE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA RATHER FAST.
SOME CHANCE OF A STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE WEST LATER FRIDAY.
THIS BASED ON TIMING AND THE THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE BEST MOISTURE.
HAVE TO WATCH FOR SEVERE...BUT DYNAMICS LIKELY TO LIFT NE AWAY
FROM THE AREA. ALSO TIMING NOT THE BEST.
WHILE WE WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS EACH DAY THIS WEEK...NOT SEEING ANY
LARGE AMTS. THUS NOT SEEING ANY WIDESPREAD HYDRO CONCERNS AT THIS
POINT. ENJOY THE MILDER TEMPERATURES.
RATHER STRONG SMALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SAT.
TOOK OUT SHOWERS AFTER EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. MAIN THING WAS TO
LOWER TEMPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT...GIVEN AIRMASS TO THE NORTH
AND COLD ADVECTION.
WEEKEND SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND. BREEZY AND COOL ON SAT. WARMER
ON SUNDAY.
DID PUT SOME SHOWERS IN THE FAR WEST LATE MONDAY AND ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUE. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING IN.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW CIGS AND FOG WILL SUPPORT REDUCED FLYING CONDS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AIRSPACE OVER NIGHT..WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR OR LOWER
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CONDS CAUSED BY FRONTAL BOUNDARY VCNTY
STATE AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THOSE FROM EARLIER TODAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT INTO WED.
OUTLOOK...
WED...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR IN SHRA/PERIODS OF RA.
THU...REDUCTIONS LIKELY IN SCT SHRA.
FRI...REDUCTIONS LIKELY IN SHRA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFT. CHC OF THUNDER AFT.
SAT-SUN...VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
511 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
M AND HUMID SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK...KEEPING CONDITIONS UNSETTLED WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
CROSS THE REGION BY THE END OF FRIDAY...LIKELY SUPPORTING A BAND OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 500 PM EDT...THE ATMOS CONTINUES TO BE RATHER SUPPRESSED ACRS
THE CWFA...AS AS UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES. HAVE CUT BACK POP HEADING
INTO THE EVENING HOURS...IN LINE WITH THE LAST FEW HRRR RUNS OF
SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY. MCS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...ONE CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL KY MAY DROP SE IN
TO THE NC MTNS LATE THIS EVENING (PER THE CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS). SO WILL LEAVE THE CHC POP ACRS THE NRN TIER FOR LATE
EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT. THE UPSTATE AND NE GA MAY NOT SEE ANY
PRECIP...IF THE LATEST TRENDS HOLD.
AS OF 230 PM EDT...WEAK UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE ROCKIES. STRONG SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS IS RESULTING IN A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
MOVING INTO WEST VIRGINIA AT AFD TIME. HI-RES REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE
WANTS TO CONTINUE TO DRAG THIS COMPLEX SOUTHEAST ALONG THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...CLIPPING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
SBCAPE VALUES EAST OF THE RIDGES CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND ARE UP TO
BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG AT AFD TIME AND LOOK TO SUPPORT THE
SUSTAINING OF THIS COMPLEX. ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE INCREASING
SBCAPE VALUES...CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW
LEVEL CAP ERODES. BUFR SOUNDINGS MAX OUT BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG AT
VARIOUS LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WITH SLIGHTLY STEEPER
LAPSE RATES THAN YESTERDAY...CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
SEVERE THOUGH BEST CHANCES REMAIN ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES
CLOSER TO THE UPPER SHORTWAVE. THREATS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT BUT COULD STILL
SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG THURSDAY MORNING. THE
ROCKIES UPPER WAVE WILL PUSH INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...DRAGGING A FRONT THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WE
REMAIN SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH BOTH GFS
AND NAM INCREASING CAPES ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE PIEDMONT TO BETWEEN
1500-2000 J/KG AGAIN. NO REAL DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR TO SPEAK
OF...TOO FAR AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH TURNING
IN THE WIND PROFILE WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND WEST
TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT TO RESULT IN SOME DECENT HELICITY
VALUES THAT MAY HELP TO ORGANIZE CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. CURRENT SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK ONLY HAS OUR AREA IN GENERAL
THUNDER BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO AGAIN SEE ISOLATED SEVERE
POTENTIAL. POPS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A GENERAL
DIURNAL TREND BUT HIGHER POPS ARE EMPHASIZED ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES
CLOSER TO ANY SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM UNDER THE INCREASING THICKNESSES ALOFT...
WITH LOWS TONIGHT A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND HIGHS
THURSDAY 10 OR SO DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. GUIDANCE OVERALL
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES
TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD/ALONG A COLD
FRONT MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BUT BEFORE WE GET THERE...WE WILL
STILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...PERHAPS A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE...ON THURSDAY EVENING. THE WHOLE FCST AREA WARRANTS
A CHANCE POP INTO THURSDAY EVENING...BUT LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD REDUCE THE CHANCES BACK TO WHERE SOME MECHANICAL FORCING
REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY LATE EVENING. THE
PRECIP CHANCES THEN START RAMPING UP ON THE TN BORDER AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS CONVECTION ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROF MAY REACH THE NC MTNS BEFORE
DAYBREAK. EXPECT AREAS E OF THE MTNS TO GET A BREAK IN THE ACTION
AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY...WHICH RESULTS IN A SHORT PERIOD WITH A LARGE
POP GRADIENT FROM W TO E. TEMPS SHOULD BE SEASONALLY MILD OVERNIGHT.
WHICH BRINGS US TO FRIDAY. THE MODELS SHOW EXCELLENT FORCING ALONG
THE FRONT TO THE WEST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT THIS
WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THE RECENT MODEL TREND
SHOWING POORER CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE FRONT ALSO CONTINUES ON THE
NEW RUNS. THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET PULLS NWD BY AFTERNOON AND
850 MB WINDS WEAKEN AND VEER. THE RESULT IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER SHEAR
AND A MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL HODOGRAPH. ON THE OTHER HAND...A SLIGHT
DELAY IN THE TIMING ALLOWS SURFACE BASED CAPE IN THE MODELS TO CLIMB
A BIT HIGHER...CLOSER TO 1000 J/KG ON THE GFS AND ABOVE 1500 J/KG ON
THE OPERATIONAL NAM. SO...THE TREND ON THE SIGNALS IS MIXED. STILL
THINK WE HAVE A DECENT CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION...
ESPECIALLY E OF THE MTNS...SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IT IN THE
HWO. THE PRECIP PROBABILITY GOES UP TO CATEGORICAL ON THE TN
BORDER...BUT HAVE KEPT ONLY A LIKELY E OF THE MTNS BECAUSE IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A CONVECTIVE LINE COULD BREAK UP A BIT OVER THE MTNS
AND THEN FILL BACK IN AS IT IS LEAVING THE EASTERN PART OF THE FCST
AREA LATE IN THE DAY. THE CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH E OF THE REGION IN
THE EARLY EVENING EVEN IF THE FRONT GETS HELD UP ON THE MTNS. PRECIP
CHANCES RAMP DOWN FROM THE WEST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
ON SATURDAY...A NRN STREAM TROF PASSING TO THE WEST WILL RESULT IN A
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD
IN TO DRY US OUT AND GIVE US A NORMAL SPRING DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM WED...GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SHORT WAVE
RIDGING SETTING UP FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A SRN STREAM UPPER LOW
DEVELOPS AND MOVES INTO THE SRN PLAINS. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...A
DAMPENING SHORT WAVE TOPS THE RIDGE AND CROSSES THE AREA TUE AS THE
UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. RIDGING BEGINS TO
REBUILD ON WED...BUT SWLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER OUR AREA WITH WEAK
SHORT WAVES MOVING THRU THE FLOW.
AT THE SFC...DRY AND MILD HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON SUN...WITH
POTENTIALLY ENUF LINGERING MOISTURE FOR ISOLATES SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MTNS. TEMPS WILL BE UP TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE HIGH MOVES
EAST MON WITH SLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. WITHOUT ANY STRONG FORCING
DEVELOPING...EXPECT SCT SHRA ACROSS THE MTNS AND ISOLATED SHRA
ELSEWHERE. TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE SLY RETURN FLOW
REMAINS IN PLACE TUE AND WED WITH WEAK SFC RIDGING OVER THE AREA AND
ANY FRONTAL SYSTEMS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL CREATE SCT MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH DAYS. LOWS WILL BE UP TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...STUBBORN MVFR CIGS ARE BEGINNING TO LIFT AND SCATTER AND
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SW WINDS GENERALLY
REMAINING 7KT OR LESS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND HAVE
INTRODUCED TEMPO TSRA FROM 23-03Z TO ACCOUNT FOR PROXIMITY...BUT IT
IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT ALL TSRA WILL STAY NORTH OF KCLT. AS THE
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES...WINDS WILL BACK MORE TO THE S WITH SPEEDS
DECREASING. POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTED VSBYS/CIGS THURSDAY MORNING
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON COVERAGE OF CONVECTION LATER TODAY BUT OVERALL
CANNOT RULE OUT A REPEAT OF THIS MORNING. HAVE BROUGHT IN MVFR VSBY
BUT ONLY SCT IFR CLOUDS FOR NOW. IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER SUNRISE
THURSDAY.
ELSEWHERE...VERY SIMILAR TO KCLT OVERALL. KHKY HAS THE BEST CHANCE
OF LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION WITH KAND THE LEAST...OPTED TO
NOT INTRODUCE TEMPO TSRA AT KAND FOR NOW. AS WITH KCLT...COULD SEE
PATCHY IFR CIGS AND AT LEAST MVFR VSBY THURSDAY MORNING BUT OVERALL
RESTRICTIONS WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON COVERAGE OF EVENING CONVECTION.
IMPROVING AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
ALSO WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION. WITH
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL FOLLOW POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS EACH
MORNING. MUCH IMPROVED CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND AFTER THE FRONT
CLEARS THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
21-03Z 03-09Z 09-15Z 15-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 94% HIGH 94% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 94% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 89% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 94%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...ARK/TDP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...TDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
346 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD EVENT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW REINFORCES STRATUS
ACROSS THE AREA. BAD OF 850 HPA THETA-E ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. STILL
SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW CONVECTIVE ANY ACTIVITY MAY GET AS VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATES EXIST FROM 700-300 MB ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA.
RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW SMALL WARM NOSE HOLDING...BUT NOT SURE AM READY
TO BUY INTO THAT ENTIRELY SO HAVE HELD ON TO THE MENTION OF THUNDER
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD
ATMOSPHERE...CERTAINLY A GOOD CASE FOR HAIL IF A STORM CAN DEVELOP
FROM THE ELEVATED WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION.
ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT THOUGH CONTINUE TO
HAVE OFF AND ON SATURATION ISSUES ALOFT. THEREFORE...AM EXPECTING
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...INCREASING AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE DEFORMATION BAND APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA...FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY WITH WARM NOSE ALOFT COOLING.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FLAKES TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN
TOMORROW DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT
WITH THE WARM LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE REMAINING STEADY THROUGH THE
DAY...AM NOT EXPECTING SNOW TO ACCUMULATE. HAVE LOWERED FORECAST
HIGHS ACROSS THE EAST WITH PRECIPITATION LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY...WHILE SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT IN CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS LEADING TO A LATE DAY RECOVERY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015
COULD SEE A LITTLE PRECIP LINGERING IN OUR FAR EAST INTO THURSDAY
EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE MIDDLE RANGE OF THE FORECAST AS MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST INTO IOWA
AND MINNESOTA LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE
AND WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS CHANCE WILL LINGER IN THE EAST INTO SUNDAY AS
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND AGAIN...WITH MID 50S
TO MID 60S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY...AND UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
BY SATURDAY.
THE MILD AIR WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH WITH THE DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE. OPTED TO STICK FAIRLY CLOSE TO BROAD MODEL BLEND FOR NOW...
WHICH KEEPS HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S.
AS FAR AS PRECIP CHANCES...IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE SUNDAY NIGHT TO
MONDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY AS THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SHIFTS TO
THE EAST...AND WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE
THAT IS FORECAST TO SWING INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A BIT MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. GREATER UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE CHANCE
FOR PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED DIVERGENCE
IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION...WILL
HANG ON TO SOME LOW 20-30 RANGE POPS FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015
PERSISTENT LOW LYING STRATUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. COULD SEE PERIODS OF RAIN AND
DRIZZLE...REDUCING VISIBILITY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OUT
OF THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT DROPS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
921 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
.UPDATE...
OVERNIGHT GRIDS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. BUMPED POPS IN THE
WESTERN HALF. HRRR INDICATING SOME ACTIVITY MOVING UP FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND AHEAD OF THE MAIN FORCING. A COUPLE STORMS HAVE MOVED UP
FROM NE MISSISSIPPI BUT HAVE WEAKENED AS THEY MOVED INTO THE CWA.
AS MENTIONED IN THE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION OVERALL INTENSITY OF THE
LINE BACK TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS IT MOVES EAST
GIVEN SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS. BUMPED HOURLY TEMPERATURES UP A
COUPLE DEGREES IN THE NW OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES ARE OVERALL ON TRACK.
REAGAN
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
949 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
.DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST TENNESSEE HAS WEAKEND AND MOVED EAST
OF THE AREA. A SQUALL LINE IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
MODELS SHOW STRONG UPPER FORCING WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE JET MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE DIRECT CIRCULATION
WITH THE JET WILL ENHANCE THE FRONTO-GENETIC FORCING ALONG THE
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. USING THE HRRR MODEL FOR TIMING...EXPECT STRONG
STORMS TO GET INTO THE PLATEAU COUNTIES BETWEEN 06-08Z...WITH MAIN
LINE BETWEEN 08-10Z. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN.
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES AND POPS...OTHERWISE...CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 66 72 51 75 / 80 80 10 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 65 71 48 70 / 80 80 10 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 64 71 46 71 / 80 80 10 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 61 72 44 67 / 60 80 10 0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
614 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015
.DISCUSSION...QUICK UPDATE BASED ON PRESENT CONDITIONS AND HI-RES
MODELS.
CAP CURRENTLY WINNING BATTLE AS DEEP CONVECTION STAYING TO
THE NORTH. RAP SOUNDING SHOWING WARM LAYER AT 700MB THAT NAM IS NOT
SHOWING. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT 700MB WARM ADVECTION IS
OCCURRING...SO THINK THAT CAP WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MOST CONVECTION
TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...AROUND 04Z-08Z RAP 700MB TEMP MAP SHOWS
THERMAL TROUGH PUSHING THRU NE SECTIONS FROM NW-SE. SO BEST CHANCES
OF CAP WEAKENING IN THAT AREA DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. CURRENT POP
GRADIENT PATTERN LOOKS GOOD...BUT WILL LOWER POPS IN GENERAL...BUT
KEEPING HIGHEST POPS IN THE NORTHEAST. WILL KEEP MENTION OF
THUNDER. 850MB LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE INCREASING...BUT ALONG WITH
THE CAP...SO LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THIS INCREASED TRANSPORT WILL BE
GOING INTO DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY NORTH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 64 83 64 72 / 10 20 90 90
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 62 82 64 70 / 10 20 70 90
OAK RIDGE, TN 63 82 63 70 / 10 20 80 90
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 56 81 60 70 / 30 30 70 90
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
GM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1203 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015
.UPDATE... /ISSUED 1014 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015/
SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT
THIS ACTIVITY IS JUST ABOUT DONE. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL SEND AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO REMOVE MORNING
WORDING.
ARS
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 608 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015/
AS OF 4AM...TEMPERATURES ARE MILD ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH
READINGS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE REGION. EARLIER
CONVECTION NEAR THE SOUTHERN KANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER HAS WEAKENED
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS
DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH OF THE LEFTOVER COMPLEX. A BROAD AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN FLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A LARGE
CUTOFF LOW ROTATING OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING. THIS
FEATURE WILL BE MAIN WEATHER MAKER ACROSS OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS OR SO.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE HRRR HI-RES SHORT TERM MODEL INDICATES THAT SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH AGAIN
THIS MORNING. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO LESS THAN YESTERDAY...BUT
WILL STILL WARRANT A 20 POP. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL
EXIT THE AREA AND SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL RESULT IN
CLEARING SKIES AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
READINGS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS
AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR AND NEAR RECORD HIGHS.
BY LATE TONIGHT...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT THE
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OUT WEST WILL EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES...AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP NEAR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM
THURSDAY MORNING AND INTO FRIDAY. AS IT DOES...A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTERACT WITH A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG
AND A 50 KT MID LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. STORM MODE IS STILL A LITTLE UNCLEAR AT THE
MOMENT...BUT IT DOES APPEAR SOME STORMS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
LINE AS HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE REGION...BEFORE CONGEALING
INTO A QLCS STRUCTURE BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREATS...WITH A SECONDARY THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING. TORNADO THREAT LOOKS VERY MINIMAL...AS THE
FAVORABLE JET STRUCTURE REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH. WILL CONTINUE
TO MAKE A MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE HWO WITH THE BEST
CHANCES REMAINING OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL...AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TENNESSEE.
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE FRONT WILL PUSH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD
DURING THE DAY WITH UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S EXPECTED.
SATURDAY WILL BE A BEAUTIFUL MILD SPRING DAY WITH LOW HUMIDITY...
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70...AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
A STALLED COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL PUSH NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
ON SUNDAY MORNING. AS IT DOES...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON MONDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH BY TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK AS RETURN FLOW
REMAINS DOMINANT ACROSS THE REGION.
AC3
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF SET
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE BETWEEN 09-15Z WHEN STRATUS MAY MOVE UP OVER
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR. ALSO INTRODUCED
VCTS WORDING AT KJBR BETWEEN 9Z-13Z FOR REMNANT TSRAS THAT MAY
PUSH IN FROM SOUTHERN M0. STRONG S TO SSW WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN
10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.
KRM
&&
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1014 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
MOVE OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT THIS ACTIVITY
IS JUST ABOUT DONE. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE THROUGH
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL SEND
AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING.
ARS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 608 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015/
AS OF 4AM...TEMPERATURES ARE MILD ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH
READINGS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE REGION. EARLIER
CONVECTION NEAR THE SOUTHERN KANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER HAS WEAKENED
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS
DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH OF THE LEFTOVER COMPLEX. A BROAD AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN FLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A LARGE
CUTOFF LOW ROTATING OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING. THIS
FEATURE WILL BE MAIN WEATHER MAKER ACROSS OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS OR SO.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE HRRR HI-RES SHORT TERM MODEL INDICATES THAT SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH AGAIN
THIS MORNING. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO LESS THAN YESTERDAY...BUT
WILL STILL WARRANT A 20 POP. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL
EXIT THE AREA AND SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL RESULT IN
CLEARING SKIES AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
READINGS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS
AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR AND NEAR RECORD HIGHS.
BY LATE TONIGHT...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT THE
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OUT WEST WILL EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES...AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP NEAR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM
THURSDAY MORNING AND INTO FRIDAY. AS IT DOES...A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTERACT WITH A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG
AND A 50 KT MID LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. STORM MODE IS STILL A LITTLE UNCLEAR AT THE
MOMENT...BUT IT DOES APPEAR SOME STORMS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
LINE AS HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE REGION...BEFORE CONGEALING
INTO A QLCS STRUCTURE BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREATS...WITH A SECONDARY THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING. TORNADO THREAT LOOKS VERY MINIMAL...AS THE
FAVORABLE JET STRUCTURE REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH. WILL CONTINUE
TO MAKE A MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE HWO WITH THE BEST
CHANCES REMAINING OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL...AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TENNESSEE.
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE FRONT WILL PUSH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD
DURING THE DAY WITH UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S EXPECTED.
SATURDAY WILL BE A BEAUTIFUL MILD SPRING DAY WITH LOW HUMIDITY...
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70...AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
A STALLED COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL PUSH NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
ON SUNDAY MORNING. AS IT DOES...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON MONDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH BY TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK AS RETURN FLOW
REMAINS DOMINANT ACROSS THE REGION.
AC3
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE (08/12Z-09/12Z)
IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG WILL OCCUR AT KTUP UNTIL 13Z...OTHERWISE
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 14Z.
MENTIONED VCTS AT KJBR UNTIL 14Z WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AFFECTING
KMEM...KMKL...AND KJBR UNTIL 14Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AFTER 14Z THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS TODAY AT KMEM...KMKL...AND KJBR INCREASING FROM THE
SW AT 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS 20-27 KTS. WINDS TODAY AT KTUP BECOMING
SW 12 KTS. WINDS TONIGHT AT KMEM...KMKL AND KJBR S 8-13 KTS
BECOMING AT KJBR AFTER 09/07Z S 15 KTS WITH GUSTS 22 KTS. WINDS
TONIGHT AT KTUP S 6-8 KTS.
JCL
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
608 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
JCL
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015/
AS OF 4AM...TEMPERATURES ARE MILD ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH
READINGS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE REGION. EARLIER
CONVECTION NEAR THE SOUTHERN KANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER HAS WEAKENED
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS
DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH OF THE LEFTOVER COMPLEX. A BROAD AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN FLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A LARGE
CUTOFF LOW ROTATING OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING. THIS
FEATURE WILL BE MAIN WEATHER MAKER ACROSS OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS OR SO.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE HRRR HI-RES SHORT TERM MODEL INDICATES THAT SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH AGAIN
THIS MORNING. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO LESS THAN YESTERDAY...BUT
WILL STILL WARRANT A 20 POP. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL
EXIT THE AREA AND SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL RESULT IN
CLEARING SKIES AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
READINGS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS
AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR AND NEAR RECORD HIGHS.
BY LATE TONIGHT...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT THE
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OUT WEST WILL EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES...AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP NEAR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM
THURSDAY MORNING AND INTO FRIDAY. AS IT DOES...A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTERACT WITH A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG
AND A 50 KT MID LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. STORM MODE IS STILL A LITTLE UNCLEAR AT THE
MOMENT...BUT IT DOES APPEAR SOME STORMS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
LINE AS HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE REGION...BEFORE CONGEALING
INTO A QLCS STRUCTURE BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREATS...WITH A SECONDARY THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING. TORNADO THREAT LOOKS VERY MINIMAL...AS THE
FAVORABLE JET STRUCTURE REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH. WILL CONTINUE
TO MAKE A MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE HWO WITH THE BEST
CHANCES REMAINING OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL...AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TENNESSEE.
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE FRONT WILL PUSH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD
DURING THE DAY WITH UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S EXPECTED.
SATURDAY WILL BE A BEAUTIFUL MILD SPRING DAY WITH LOW HUMIDITY...
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70...AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
A STALLED COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL PUSH NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
ON SUNDAY MORNING. AS IT DOES...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON MONDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH BY TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK AS RETURN FLOW
REMAINS DOMINANT ACROSS THE REGION.
AC3
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE (08/12Z-09/12Z)
IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG WILL OCCUR AT KTUP UNTIL 13Z...OTHERWISE
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 14Z.
MENTIONED VCTS AT KJBR UNTIL 14Z WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AFFECTING
KMEM...KMKL...AND KJBR UNTIL 14Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AFTER 14Z THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS TODAY AT KMEM...KMKL...AND KJBR INCREASING FROM THE
SW AT 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS 20-27 KTS. WINDS TODAY AT KTUP BECOMING
SW 12 KTS. WINDS TONIGHT AT KMEM...KMKL AND KJBR S 8-13 KTS
BECOMING AT KJBR AFTER 09/07Z S 15 KTS WITH GUSTS 22 KTS. WINDS
TONIGHT AT KTUP S 6-8 KTS.
JCL
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
434 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
.DISCUSSION...
AS OF 4AM...TEMPERATURES ARE MILD ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH
READINGS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE REGION. EARLIER
CONVECTION NEAR THE SOUTHERN KANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER HAS WEAKENED
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS
DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH OF THE LEFTOVER COMPLEX. A BROAD AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN FLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A LARGE
CUTOFF LOW ROTATING OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING. THIS
FEATURE WILL BE MAIN WEATHER MAKER ACROSS OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS OR SO.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE HRRR HI-RES SHORT TERM MODEL INDICATES THAT SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH AGAIN
THIS MORNING. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO LESS THAN YESTERDAY...BUT
WILL STILL WARRANT A 20 POP. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL
EXIT THE AREA AND SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL RESULT IN
CLEARING SKIES AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
READINGS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS
AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR AND NEAR RECORD HIGHS.
BY LATE TONIGHT...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT THE
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OUT WEST WILL EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES...AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP NEAR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM
THURSDAY MORNING AND INTO FRIDAY. AS IT DOES...A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTERACT WITH A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG
AND A 50 KT MID LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. STORM MODE IS STILL A LITTLE UNCLEAR AT THE
MOMENT...BUT IT DOES APPEAR SOME STORMS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
LINE AS HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE REGION...BEFORE CONGEALING
INTO A QLCS STRUCTURE BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREATS...WITH A SECONDARY THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING. TORNADO THREAT LOOKS VERY MINIMAL...AS THE
FAVORABLE JET STRUCTURE REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH. WILL CONTINUE
TO MAKE A MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE HWO WITH THE BEST
CHANCES REMAINING OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL...AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TENNESSEE.
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE FRONT WILL PUSH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD
DURING THE DAY WITH UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S EXPECTED.
SATURDAY WILL BE A BEAUTIFUL MILD SPRING DAY WITH LOW HUMIDITY...
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70...AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
A STALLED COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL PUSH NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
ON SUNDAY MORNING. AS IT DOES...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON MONDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH BY TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK AS RETURN FLOW
REMAINS DOMINANT ACROSS THE REGION.
AC3
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF SET
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT. HI RES GUIDANCE
SHOWS SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING SO HAVE
ADDED -RA TO THE TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 09 AND 12Z FOR JBR AND MEM.
THIS SHOULD MOVE OUT QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL. THIS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT LIFT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 18Z AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL BE
STRONG OUT OF THE SOUTH NEAR 15 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS.
TVT
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1009 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATE FOR RAIN CHANCES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WILL RAISE POPS OVERNIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. LATEST HRRR IS
MATCHING UP WELL WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ON THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT COUPLED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO
THE STATE SHOULD YIELD HIGHER POPS THROUGH 15Z FRI. NEW ZONES OUT
BY 1015 PM. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 858 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015/
UPDATE...
SEE EVENING UPDATE.
DISCUSSION...
AT 8 PM...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SPRINGFIELD MO TO PARIS TO
SAN ANGELO. A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM TEXARKANA TO WACO
TO A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WEST OF LAREDO. SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPED
ALONG THE PRE FRONTAL TROUGH AND HAVE THUS FAR REMAINED JUST NORTH
AND WEST OF THE HGX CWA. MODELS HAVE BEEN WAY TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH
RAINFALL THIS EVENING AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE 18Z TEXAS TECH
WRF SINCE IT INITIALIZED BEST. 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES HAVE
GONE UP TO 1.50 INCHES AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS LESS CAPPED THAN LAST
EVENING. SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW SOME DRY AIR BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB.
THE COLD FRONT IS SURGING SOUTH AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS WHILE THE EASTERN PART OF THE FRONT IS MOVING MORE
SLUGGISHLY. THE DILEMMA FOR THE NIGHT IS FAR SOUTH THE FRONT MOVES
AND ITS EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES. THE TEXAS TECH
WRF KEEPS THINGS RELATIVELY DRY OVERNIGHT AS THE CONVECTION PUSHES
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE STATE. STILL FEEL THERE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO GENERATE A
FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND WILL LEAVE POPS AS THEY
ARE. A S/WV ON WATER VAPOR WILL APPROACH SE TX FRIDAY MORNING AND
FEEL SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY MID MORNING. MIN TEMPS
ARE A TOUGH CALL AND WILL BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON THE FRONTAL
POSITION. SINCE THE EASTERN PART OF THE FRONT IS MOVING
SLOWER...FEEL THE FRONT WILL HAVE TROUBLE CLEARING THE CWA.
CURRENT MIN TEMPS LOOK GOOD BASED ON WHERE THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BE AT 12Z FRIDAY. TWEAKED SKY GRIDS TO MATCH CURRENT OBS
OTHERWISE WILL LEAVE CURRENT FCST AS IS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
40
AVIATION...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SINK INTO SE TX FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT.
THE MODELS DIFFERED ON THE FRONTAL TIMING AND ON COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DECIDED TO GO WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE
RAP...NAM...AND GFS. WITH THIS IN MIND...THINK THAT MVFR IS FAIRLY
CERTAIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE INLAND COUNTIES SOMETIME BETWEEN 03Z
AND 09Z. MVFR CONDITIONS HAD ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER KLBX AND KGLS
AT 23Z. THINK THAT WITH THE END OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE AS THE FRONT REACHES INTO THE
KCLL AND KUTS AREAS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CHANCES OF RAIN
WILL INCREASE OVER THE METRO HOUSTON SITES AND SOUTHWARD AFTER MID
MORNING AND THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY.
40
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SCT TSRA DEVELOPING N AND NW OF SE TX THIS AFT. BEGINNING TO SEE
ISO TSTMS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS AS TEMPS REACH THE MID 80S.
THE CF WILL APPROACH NW AREAS OF SE TX DURING THE LATE EVE HOURS
AND WILL MOVE TO NEAR A CLL-DKR LINE AROUND OR A LITTLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT SCT TSRA ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT...WITH
CONVECTION WEAKENING AS THE BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTH ACROSS SE TX
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE SLIGHT SVR TSTM RISK GENERALLY
NORTH OF A MADISONVILLE TO TRINITY LINE LOOKS APPROPRIATE FOR THIS
AFT/TONIGHT.
HAVE MADE SOME COOLER ADJUSTMENTS TO FRIDAY`S TEMPS AS THE FRONT
WILL PROVIDE COOLING TO THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. STILL A
LITTLE UNCERTAIN HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT ON FRIDAY
BEFORE STALLING. THERE WILL BE AMPLE CLOUD COVER AREAWIDE WITH
SHWRS/TSTMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY...SO COOLER TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED FOR ALL...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLY THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. WILL TAPER POPS ON FRIDAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIRD
(HIGHEST) TO THE NORTH. COULD BE AN ISO SVR THREAT FRIDAY NEAR
AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...BUT THIS THREAT IS CONDITIONAL ON
INSTABILITY...WHICH COULD BE LACKING. IF THE INSTABILITY IS
SUFFICIENT...COULD SEE A SVR WIND GUST THREAT WITH ANY ORGANIZED
CONVECTION.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY WITH SHWRS/TSTMS LIKELY
ACROSS MOST OF SE TX WITH AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SUN/MON AS A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. SE TX WILL
LIKELY SEE A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY
WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE LEVELS AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
PRESENT. CHC POPS CONTINUE NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE SCALE MID/UPPER
TROF/CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS FEATURE
WILL LIKELY ALLOW A STRONG COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH SE TX NEXT
THU. SHOULD HAVE A COOL AND BENIGN PD IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT/FEATURE. 33
MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING...A CAUTION STATEMENT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 8 PM. SEAS OF 2-4 FEET WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ON
FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IN PLACE. 14/33
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 62 73 64 77 66 / 40 30 20 60 60
HOUSTON (IAH) 69 77 67 79 68 / 30 60 30 60 60
GALVESTON (GLS) 72 78 69 76 70 / 20 60 30 60 50
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
347 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
OVERALL HIGHLIGHTS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON THE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POSSIBILITIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY EVENING FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A
FREDERICKSBURG TO LA GRANGE LINE.
FOR TODAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CHANNELS DEPICT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER UTAH WITH RAP ANALYSIS INDICATING AN ENHANCED MID-LEVEL WIND
SPEED BELT EXTENDING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS BACK WESTWARD INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO. THE INCREASING H5-H3 WIND FLOW IS AIDING IN
BETTER DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND HELPING GENERATE SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS
ABOVE A CAPPING INVERSION. 315K THETA SURFACE DEPICTS LOWEST
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS WITH LOWER LAYERS STILL DRY. THIS
IS LIMITING OVERALL AMOUNTS FROM REACHING THE GROUND SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS BIG QUESTION FOR LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE HOW MUCH
CLOUD COVER EROSION OCCURS WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR MORE SURFACE
HEATING AND POSSIBLY AID SURFACE BASED STORMS OUT WEST. VIS
SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW CLEARING ACROSS MAVERICK BUT VAL VERDE
REMAINS MOSTLY SOCKED IN. SOME ADDITIONAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS THROUGH 6PM BUT BOTH GFS/NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST OVERALL CAP SHOULD HOLD AND LIMIT
SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. DESPITE THIS FACT...ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL GROW AS CAPPING INVERSION THINS ABOVE 700MB.
WHILE AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL OR WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH CAN NOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE
CHANCES ARE RELATIVELY LOW. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WITH SOUTHEASTERN AREAS
MOSTLY DRY.
FOR THURSDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER UTAH WILL HELP PUSH A
WEAK FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION THAT WILL IMPINGE ON THE
DRYLINE TO EDGE TOWARDS THE HILL COUNTY BY THE AFTERNOON. AFTER
MORNING CLOUD COVER SLOWLY ERODES...SURFACE INSTABILITY IS
PROGGED TO INCREASE TOWARDS 3000 J/KG AS MIXING OCCURS BY MID
AFTERNOON. BOTH NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE EROSION OF THE
CAP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WITH 30KT 0-6 KM SHEAR IN PLACE. WHILE
NOT SUPER HIGH...THIS AMOUNT IN CONJUNCTION WITH A LOW-LEVEL
FORCING BOUNDARY (DRYLINE) COULD HELP SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS THAT COULD TAKE ON A SUPERCELL APPEARANCE. MOST
FAVORED AREAS WILL BE TOWARDS WACO TO DALLAS WITH TAIL END CELLS
POSSIBLE TO SKIRT BURNET TO WILLIAMSON. QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL BE PRIMARY THREATS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
WANE THROUGH THE MID EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY DECREASES BUT
MID-LEVEL SHOWERS COULD REGENERATE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS AN
IMPULSE MOVES OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST. /ALLEN/
&&
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS
AREA WILL REMAIN IN SW FLOW WITH EMBEDDED IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE
REGION. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY
AND POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.
FOR FRIDAY...THE WEAK BOUNDARY/DRYLINE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION LEAVING SOUTHERN LOCATIONS IN A MORE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION FRIDAY WILL BE
HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR GIVEN CLOUD COVER FROM MID-LEVEL
LIFT FROM A MORNING TRAVERSING IMPULSE. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
RENEWED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON PER MASS FIELDS WHICH
INCREASES CONFIDENCE OF MORE SURFACE BASED ACTIVITY. SUPPORTIVE
LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR APPEAR TO BE IN PLACE FOR SOME ISOLATED STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WITH MORE FAVORED AREA ACROSS WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN ZONES.
FOR THE WEEKEND...THE BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT WITH REESTABLISHING
SE LOW-LVL FLOW UNDERNEATH CONTINUED ZONAL TO SW FLOW AS EMBEDDED
IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE REGION. THESE IMPULSES IN COMBINATION WITH
INSTABILITY AND AT LEAST MODEST H5 WIND SPEEDS SHOULD HELP AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM GENERATION SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THESE IMPULSES WILL BE EJECTING AHEAD OF A
LARGER CUT-OFF H5 LOW ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO THAT WILL AID IN
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS.
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH FROM THE MAIN
LOW WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION AND AID IN LIKELY CONTINUED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BOTH GFS AND EC PRECIP RUN
ACCUMULATION TOTALS SUGGEST POCKETS OF 4-5 INCHES THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. TRENDS WILL NEED TO MONITORED EACH DAY FOR POSSIBLE
FLOODING CONCERNS IF A MORE CONCENTRATED COMPLEX DEVELOPS. /ALLEN/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 69 85 66 77 64 / 20 30 30 50 50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 68 83 66 77 64 / 20 30 30 50 50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 68 85 67 79 65 / 20 20 10 50 50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 66 84 63 74 62 / 30 40 30 50 50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 68 89 69 83 67 / 30 - 20 50 50
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 68 84 64 75 63 / 30 40 40 50 50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 68 86 68 80 66 / 30 10 10 50 50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 69 84 66 78 65 / 20 20 20 50 50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 70 84 69 80 67 / 10 20 20 50 50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 69 85 69 79 66 / 20 10 10 50 50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 69 86 69 80 67 / 20 10 10 50 50
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...01
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...15
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA
COLLECTION...33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
331 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)
Initial shortwave has worked itself off to the east and has taken
the first round of mainly elevated convection with it. A little more
potent shortwave is approaching for late this afternoon and this
evening. At the surface, a fairly diffuse dryline extends across the
Permian Basin northward into the Panhandle. Much sharper feature to
the north where the high clouds have thinned enough to allow much
better mixing and a more defined dryline.
Morning soundings showed a substantial cap to overcome for surface
based convection, and the abundant high clouds limiting sunshine and
heating has so far not weakened the cap enough. However, as the
shortwave approaches, should see the cap finally weaken enough to
see at least scattered convection develop from the Permian Basin
north into the South Plains, with the activity spreading into West
Central Texas by sunset. How much convection we see is still a
question, with the HRRR showing a fairly extensive area of storms
while the TTU WRF shows quite a bit less. Given the shear and at
least some instability, if storms can develop and get organized,
they certainly have the potential to reach severe levels. And given
a 50 kt low level jet developing during the evening, storms may be
slow to dissipate through the evening and into the early morning
hours.
Pacific front shifts east into West Central Texas on Thursday,
although perhaps not quite clearing the eastern sections by
afternoon. May have enough moisture still in place for a few storms
to redevelop across areas of a Brownwood to Junction line.
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Rain chances will continue Thursday night over southern sections
of the forecast where the frontal boundary will be located. The
frontal boundary will continue to provide a focus of thunderstorm
activity Friday and into the weekend as low level winds return to
south and southeasterly allowing isentropic upglide across over
the area. The best chance of additional rainfall will be over the
southern half of the area. Winds aloft will become southwesterly
ahead of an upper level low that will move across the northern
Baja Peninsula Saturday night. Periodic disturbances in the flow
aloft will keep the chance of thunderstorms over the area through
Sunday night. Rain chances will decrease over most of the CWA
from west to east on Monday as the Pacific upper low lifts
northeast from extreme western Texas to the Central Plains.
Residual thunderstorms will still be possible over primarily the
southern CWA through Wednesday as a southwestern flow aloft
reestablishes ahead of another upper level low digging southeast
from the Pacific Northwest to the Central Rockies.
Post-frontal afternoon temperatures on Friday will be in the
lower 70s across the forecast area after Friday morning lows in
50s. Given the continuation of rainfall chances and good cloud
cover through the middle of next week, warm-up will be gradual
with upper 70s for Saturday highs, upper 70s and lower 80s on
Sunday and Monday, and lower 80s for highs on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Morning lows will climb back into the upper 50s to the
lower 60s into the middle of next week.
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 66 86 55 73 60 / 30 5 10 20 40
San Angelo 66 87 57 73 61 / 30 10 10 40 40
Junction 66 85 62 75 62 / 40 20 20 40 50
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
130 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015
.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS AT SAT/SSF/AUS OVER THE
NEXT 2-4 HOURS AS A SHOWER ACTIVITY DUE TO A WEAK DISTURBANCE
REMAINS TO THE WEST. DRT CIGS WILL REMAIN BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR FOR
A FEW HOURS BEFORE IMPROVING TO BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR WITH SHOWERS
MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 22-02Z. TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT DRT
DURING THIS TIME AS HRRR SUGGESTS...BUT ARE UNLIKELY IF LOW CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS CONTINUE UPSTREAM WITHOUT SUFFICIENT CLEARING. EXPECT
CIGS TO LOWER AT ALL SITES TO MVFR BY LATE EVENING AND IFR FOR A
FEW HOURS BETWEEN 09-15Z BEFORE IMPROVING TO MVFR.
LH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015/
UPDATE...HAVE INCREASED POPS 10-20% ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND
SEGMENTED THE MORNING TIME PERIOD INTO THREE HOUR BLOCKS TO BETTER
ACCOUNT FOR SHOWER TIMING AND PROGRESSION NORTHEASTWARD. HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES OUT WEST GIVEN ADDITIONAL SHOWER COVERAGE
AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. THIS TREND MAY NEED TO BE REVISITED IF
HRRR OUTPUT IS AN ACCURATE INDICATION OF SHOWER EVOLUTION TODAY.
UPDATES ARE OUT AND UPDATED DISCUSSION CAN BE FOUND BELOW. /ALLEN/
DISCUSSION...ISENTROPIC LIFT IN COMBINATION WITH A MID- TO UPPER-
LEVEL DIVERGENCE DUE TO INCREASING WIND SPEEDS ROUNDING THE BASE OF
A CLOSED H5 LOW OVER NEVADA IS AIDING ELEVATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. THE 12Z KDRT SOUNDING
REVEALED MUCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000-1500 J/KG WITH THE LFC LOCATED NEAR
10 KFT. THIS HEIGHT IS CO-LOCATED WITH MOISTURE LADEN ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WITHIN THIS LAYER AND THUS SUPPORTING SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THE RAP/HRRR ARE THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SHORT TERM MODELS BUT
SO FAR HAVE BEEN MORE CORRECT OVER PAST COUPLE HOURS. HAVE TRENDED
THE NEXT 3-12 HOURS THIS DIRECTION AND BUMPED UP POPS ALONG AND WEST
OF I-35...ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN REGIONS AND THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU. A STRONG STORM OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE OUT WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND TRENDS WILL NEED MONITORED CLOSELY IF ANOTHER POSSIBLE
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTS
GREATER COVERAGE LIKE THE HRRR SUGGESTS. SPC SSEO GIVES CONFIDENCE
THAT THE WEST IS THE FAVORED REGION FOR STRONGER ACTIVITY BUT THE
AMOUNT OF OVERALL PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS STILL A QUESTION. NOT
READY TO FULLY LEAN TOWARDS THE AGGRESSIVE HRRR DIRECTION ON THIS
UPDATE BUT WILL MONITOR FOR FUTURE UPDATES. /ALLEN/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015/
AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT FIRST AT KAUS...THEN LATER AT
KSAT/KSSF. WINDS WILL BE S-SE AND FAIRLY STEADY AT 10-15 KTS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT DID INCLUDE SOME HIGHER GUSTS
FOR MID TO LATE MORNING. THE ARRIVAL OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
MORE FAVORABLE SURFACE HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF
-TSRA AT KDRT...SO INCLUDED THAT AS A PROB30 FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LOOK FOR MOIST GULF FLOW TO RE-
ESTABLISH MVFR...THEN IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST AIRMASS TODAY
INTO THURSDAY WITH A PATTERN OF NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS MIXING
OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL MOVE ACROSS
TEXAS TODAY INTO TONIGHT PUSHING THE DRYLINE EAST ACROSS WESTERN
TEXAS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE
AND OVER THE SERRIANAS DEL BURRO AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY TODAY AND TOWARD THE I-35 CORRIDOR
TONIGHT. CAPE VALUES INDICATE SOME STORMS IN THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
MAY BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS FORCING THE DRYLINE EAST INTO THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND POSSIBLY FAR NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY ON THURSDAY. THE
MOIST AXIS SHIFTS EAST WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
NORTHEAST OF I-10. CAPE VALUES AGAIN INDICATE A POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...A
CAPPING INVERSION OF WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY INHIBIT
DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND THURSDAY.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND THEN PHASES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THIS FORCES A COLD FRONT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS ON FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
FRONT WITH CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS INDICATING A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. AGAIN...THIS DEPENDS ON THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AND THE BREAKING OF THE CAPPING INVERSION. THE FRONT
STALLS JUST SOUTH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN
DISSIPATES SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER JUST
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA MOVES INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THIS
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS TEXAS ON MONDAY WHILE FORCING A PACIFIC FRONT
OR A DRYLINE INTO WESTERN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON ITS SPEED SINCE IT HAS NOT
YET BEEN SAMPLED BY THE NORTH AMERICAN UPPER AIR OBSERVATION
NETWORK. WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF OUR
AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 68 85 66 77 64 / 20 30 30 50 50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 69 83 66 77 64 / 20 30 30 50 50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 68 85 67 79 65 / 20 20 20 50 50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 66 84 63 74 62 / 30 30 40 50 50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 67 89 69 83 67 / 30 - 20 50 50
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 67 84 64 75 63 / 30 30 40 50 50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 68 86 68 80 66 / 30 10 10 50 50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 68 84 66 78 65 / 20 20 20 50 50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 71 84 69 80 67 / 10 20 20 50 50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 69 85 69 79 66 / 20 10 20 50 50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 69 86 69 80 67 / 20 10 10 50 50
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...00
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...15
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1242 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2015
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
Scattered showers and storms continue near West Central Texas
terminals this afternoon and tonight. Most of this first wave will
exit the are by mid afternoon, leaving VFR conditions for much of
the afternoon and evening. Stronger storms are possible later this
afternoon and evening, but the activity should be more isolated
and the exact timing is still a question. Will include a VCTS at
KABI (Abilene) for this time period, but will hold off on
mentioning any drop in visibility or ceiling for now. MVFR cigs
move back in overnight as low level moisture streams back into the area.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 807 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015/
AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Good flight conditions will prevail at KABI, KSJT, and KBBD through
the next 24 hours. Farther south, ceilings near 1500 feet this
morning will lift to around 4000 feet by late morning. Southwest
wind gusts near 25 kts are likely late this morning and afternoon at
all terminals. These wind gusts will diminish to near 20 kts after
sunset. Showers and thunderstorms may develop this afternoon/evening.
However, confidence in timing/location remain high enough not to
include in the TAFs at this time.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2015/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
.Severe weather possible this afternoon/evening...
The forecast challenges are plentiful through the next 24 hours. The
TTU WRF and HRRR models indicate showers should be developing to our
southwest at 4 AM, moving into the region from west to east this
morning through mid-afternoon. They then try to re-develop
convection to our west by late afternoon, with this convection
dissipating before midnight as it approaches our western counties.
Conversely, the NAM/GFS/ECMWF all show nothing for this morning
through mid afternoon, and then develop convection from mid-
afternoon through midnight at varying locations/intensities across
the region. Given the current satellite imagery and upstream
observations, we`ll lean more towards this scenario.
The NAM/GFS have also trended significantly farther west with the
dryline position this afternoon. The ECMWF brings it farther east
with it positioned along a line from eastern Haskell County, to San
Angelo, to west of Ozona. We`ll take a middle-ground approach with
the expectation of the dryline halting its eastward progression,
being located along the western edge of the forecast area. A
strong cap will remain in place for much of the day. By late
afternoon/early evening, a mid-level jet streak will approach the
area from the southwest. Increasing ascent from this, afternoon
mixing, and convergence along the dryline, may be sufficient to
weaken the cap enough for a few storms to develop.
If this occurs, the environment will be characterized by 1500-2500
J/kg of SBCAPE (possibly more if skies are less cloudy than
currently forecast), steep mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/km, with
0-6km effective shear values of 40-55 kts. With this type of setup,
storms would rapidly become severe/supercells with large hail and
damaging winds the main concerns. Soundings also show low-level
winds backing to the southeast, which really increases 0-3km
helicity values making isolated tornadoes a possibility as well,
especially across the northwestern this of the area which is closer
to the track of the mid-level disturbance.
LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Rain chances remain in most periods of the long term. Another cold
front will push across West Central Texas on Thursday and bring
cooler air, and it will enhance the rain potential for Friday
through the weekend. A developing upper-level disturbance well to
our west will also enhance the rain potential by creating
southwest flow aloft, where embedded minor disturbance will move
across Texas. Isentropic upglide will be best across our southern
counties from Friday through the weekend. Thus, the best chance
for rain will be there. The ECMWF is more aggressive than the GFS
regarding QPF amounts for Friday through the weekend, and the
ECMWF indicates better divergence aloft over Texas for those
periods. So, continuing the best rain chances across our southern
counties looks best. Plus, continuing a PoP forecast closer to
the ECMWF looks better than something closer to the drier GFS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 84 65 86 55 73 / 50 40 5 10 30
San Angelo 84 65 86 57 73 / 40 40 10 10 30
Junction 83 64 87 62 75 / 40 30 30 10 40
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1000 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
.UPDATE...HAVE INCREASED POPS 10-20% ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND
SEGMENTED THE MORNING TIME PERIOD INTO THREE HOUR BLOCKS TO BETTER
ACCOUNT FOR SHOWER TIMING AND PROGRESSION NORTHEASTWARD. HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES OUT WEST GIVEN ADDITIONAL SHOWER COVERAGE
AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. THIS TREND MAY NEED TO BE REVISITED IF
HRRR OUTPUT IS AN ACCURATE INDICATION OF SHOWER EVOLUTION TODAY.
UPDATES ARE OUT AND UPDATED DISCUSSION CAN BE FOUND BELOW. /ALLEN/
&&
.DISCUSSION...ISENTROPIC LIFT IN COMBINATION WITH A MID- TO UPPER-
LEVEL DIVERGENCE DUE TO INCREASING WIND SPEEDS ROUNDING THE BASE OF
A CLOSED H5 LOW OVER NEVADA IS AIDING ELEVATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. THE 12Z KDRT SOUNDING
REVEALED MUCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000-1500 J/KG WITH THE LFC LOCATED NEAR
10 KFT. THIS HEIGHT IS CO-LOCATED WITH MOISTURE LADEN ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WITHIN THIS LAYER AND THUS SUPPORTING SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THE RAP/HRRR ARE THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SHORT TERM MODELS BUT
SO FAR HAVE BEEN MORE CORRECT OVER PAST COUPLE HOURS. HAVE TRENDED
THE NEXT 3-12 HOURS THIS DIRECTION AND BUMPED UP POPS ALONG AND WEST
OF I-35...ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN REGIONS AND THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU. A STRONG STORM OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE OUT WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND TRENDS WILL NEED MONITORED CLOSELY IF ANOTHER POSSIBLE
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTS
GREATER COVERAGE LIKE THE HRRR SUGGESTS. SPC SSEO GIVES CONFIDENCE
THAT THE WEST IS THE FAVORED REGION FOR STRONGER ACTIVITY BUT THE
AMOUNT OF OVERALL PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS STILL A QUESTION. NOT
READY TO FULLY LEAN TOWARDS THE AGGRESSIVE HRRR DIRECTION ON THIS
UPDATE BUT WILL MONITOR FOR FUTURE UPDATES. /ALLEN/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015/
AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT FIRST AT KAUS...THEN LATER AT
KSAT/KSSF. WINDS WILL BE S-SE AND FAIRLY STEADY AT 10-15 KTS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT DID INCLUDE SOME HIGHER GUSTS
FOR MID TO LATE MORNING. THE ARRIVAL OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
MORE FAVORABLE SURFACE HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF
-TSRA AT KDRT...SO INCLUDED THAT AS A PROB30 FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LOOK FOR MOIST GULF FLOW TO RE-
ESTABLISH MVFR...THEN IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST AIRMASS TODAY
INTO THURSDAY WITH A PATTERN OF NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS MIXING
OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL MOVE ACROSS
TEXAS TODAY INTO TONIGHT PUSHING THE DRYLINE EAST ACROSS WESTERN
TEXAS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE
AND OVER THE SERRIANAS DEL BURRO AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY TODAY AND TOWARD THE I-35 CORRIDOR
TONIGHT. CAPE VALUES INDICATE SOME STORMS IN THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
MAY BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS FORCING THE DRYLINE EAST INTO THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND POSSIBLY FAR NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY ON THURSDAY. THE
MOIST AXIS SHIFTS EAST WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
NORTHEAST OF I-10. CAPE VALUES AGAIN INDICATE A POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...A
CAPPING INVERSION OF WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY INHIBIT
DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND THURSDAY.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND THEN PHASES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THIS FORCES A COLD FRONT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS ON FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
FRONT WITH CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS INDICATING A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. AGAIN...THIS DEPENDS ON THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AND THE BREAKING OF THE CAPPING INVERSION. THE FRONT
STALLS JUST SOUTH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN
DISSIPATES SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER JUST
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA MOVES INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THIS
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS TEXAS ON MONDAY WHILE FORCING A PACIFIC FRONT
OR A DRYLINE INTO WESTERN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON ITS SPEED SINCE IT HAS NOT
YET BEEN SAMPLED BY THE NORTH AMERICAN UPPER AIR OBSERVATION
NETWORK. WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF OUR
AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 83 69 85 66 79 / 20 20 30 30 50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 84 69 83 66 78 / 20 20 30 30 50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 86 68 86 66 81 / 10 20 20 20 50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 82 67 85 64 75 / 30 40 30 30 50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 84 68 90 68 83 / 40 40 - 20 60
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 83 68 84 65 75 / 20 20 30 40 50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 86 68 87 67 81 / 20 30 10 10 50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 82 69 85 66 80 / 10 20 30 20 50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 84 70 84 69 81 / - 10 30 20 50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 86 70 86 67 80 / 20 20 20 10 50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 87 69 86 68 81 / 10 20 20 10 50
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...01
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...15
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
930 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
.UPDATE...HAVE INCREASED POPS 10-20% ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND
SEGMENTED THE MORNING TIME PERIOD INTO THREE HOUR BLOCKS TO BETTER
ACCOUNT FOR SHOWER TIMING AND PROGRESSION NORTHEASTWARD. HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES OUT WEST GIVEN ADDITIONAL SHOWER COVERAGE
AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. THIS TREND MAY NEED TO BE REVISITED IF
HRRR OUTPUT IS AN ACCURATE INDICATION OF SHOWER EVOLUTION TODAY.
UPDATES ARE OUT AND UPDATED DISCUSSION CAN BE FOUND BELOW. /ALLEN/
&&
.DISCUSSION...ISENTROPIC LIFT IN COMBINATION WITH A MID- TO UPPER-
LEVEL DIVERGENCE DUE TO INCREASING WIND SPEEDS ROUNDING THE BASE OF
A CLOSED H5 LOW OVER NEVADA IS AIDING ELEVATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. THE 12Z KDRT SOUNDING
REVEALED MUCAPE VALUES NEAR 1500 J/KG WITH THE LFC LOCATED NEAR 10
KFT. THIS HEIGHT IS CO-LOCATED WITH MOISTURE LADEN ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WITHIN THIS LAYER AND THUS SUPPORTING SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THE RAP/HRRR ARE THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SHORT TERM MODELS
BUT SO FAR HAVE BEEN MORE CORRECT OVER PAST COUPLE HOURS. HAVE
TRENDED THE NEXT 3-12 HOURS THIS DIRECTION AND BUMPED UP POPS
ALONG AND WEST OF I-35...ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN REGIONS AND THE
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. A STRONG STORM OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE
OUT WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TRENDS WILL NEED MONITORED CLOSELY IF
ANOTHER POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE INCREASING MID
LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTS GREATER COVERAGE LIKE THE HRRR SUGGESTS. SPC
SSEO GIVES CONFIDENCE THAT THE WEST IS THE FAVORED REGION FOR
STRONGER ACTIVITY BUT THE AMOUNT OF OVERALL PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
IS STILL A QUESTION. NOT READY TO FULLY LEAN TOWARDS THE
AGGRESSIVE HRRR DIRECTION ON THIS UPDATE BUT WILL MONITOR FOR
FUTURE UPDATES. /ALLEN/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015/
AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT FIRST AT KAUS...THEN LATER AT
KSAT/KSSF. WINDS WILL BE S-SE AND FAIRLY STEADY AT 10-15 KTS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT DID INCLUDE SOME HIGHER GUSTS
FOR MID TO LATE MORNING. THE ARRIVAL OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
MORE FAVORABLE SURFACE HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF
-TSRA AT KDRT...SO INCLUDED THAT AS A PROB30 FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LOOK FOR MOIST GULF FLOW TO RE-
ESTABLISH MVFR...THEN IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST AIRMASS TODAY
INTO THURSDAY WITH A PATTERN OF NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS MIXING
OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL MOVE ACROSS
TEXAS TODAY INTO TONIGHT PUSHING THE DRYLINE EAST ACROSS WESTERN
TEXAS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE
AND OVER THE SERRIANAS DEL BURRO AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY TODAY AND TOWARD THE I-35 CORRIDOR
TONIGHT. CAPE VALUES INDICATE SOME STORMS IN THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
MAY BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS FORCING THE DRYLINE EAST INTO THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND POSSIBLY FAR NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY ON THURSDAY. THE
MOIST AXIS SHIFTS EAST WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
NORTHEAST OF I-10. CAPE VALUES AGAIN INDICATE A POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...A
CAPPING INVERSION OF WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY INHIBIT
DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND THURSDAY.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND THEN PHASES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THIS FORCES A COLD FRONT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS ON FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
FRONT WITH CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS INDICATING A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. AGAIN...THIS DEPENDS ON THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AND THE BREAKING OF THE CAPPING INVERSION. THE FRONT
STALLS JUST SOUTH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN
DISSIPATES SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER JUST
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA MOVES INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THIS
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS TEXAS ON MONDAY WHILE FORCING A PACIFIC FRONT
OR A DRYLINE INTO WESTERN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON ITS SPEED SINCE IT HAS NOT
YET BEEN SAMPLED BY THE NORTH AMERICAN UPPER AIR OBSERVATION
NETWORK. WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF OUR
AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 83 69 85 66 79 / 20 20 30 30 50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 84 69 83 66 78 / 20 20 30 30 50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 86 68 86 66 81 / 10 20 20 20 50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 82 67 85 64 75 / 30 40 30 30 50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 84 68 90 68 83 / 40 40 - 20 60
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 83 68 84 65 75 / 20 20 30 40 50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 86 68 87 67 81 / 20 30 10 10 50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 82 69 85 66 80 / 10 20 30 20 50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 84 70 84 69 81 / - 10 30 20 50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 86 70 86 67 80 / 20 20 20 10 50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 87 69 86 68 81 / 10 20 20 10 50
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...01
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...15
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
807 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Good flight conditions will prevail at KABI, KSJT, and KBBD through
the next 24 hours. Farther south, ceilings near 1500 feet this
morning will lift to around 4000 feet by late morning. Southwest
wind gusts near 25 kts are likely late this morning and afternoon at
all terminals. These wind gusts will diminish to near 20 kts after
sunset. Showers and thunderstorms may develop this afternoon/evening.
However, confidence in timing/location remain high enough not to
include in the TAFs at this time.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2015/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
..Severe weather possible this afternoon/evening...
The forecast challenges are plentiful through the next 24 hours. The
TTU WRF and HRRR models indicate showers should be developing to our
southwest at 4 AM, moving into the region from west to east this
morning through mid-afternoon. They then try to re-develop
convection to our west by late afternoon, with this convection
dissipating before midnight as it approaches our western counties.
Conversely, the NAM/GFS/ECMWF all show nothing for this morning
through mid afternoon, and then develop convection from mid-
afternoon through midnight at varying locations/intensities across
the region. Given the current satellite imagery and upstream
observations, we`ll lean more towards this scenario.
The NAM/GFS have also trended significantly farther west with the
dryline position this afternoon. The ECMWF brings it farther east
with it positioned along a line from eastern Haskell County, to San
Angelo, to west of Ozona. We`ll take a middle-ground approach with
the expectation of the dryline halting its eastward progression,
being located along the western edge of the forecast area. A
strong cap will remain in place for much of the day. By late
afternoon/early evening, a mid-level jet streak will approach the
area from the southwest. Increasing ascent from this, afternoon
mixing, and convergence along the dryline, may be sufficient to
weaken the cap enough for a few storms to develop.
If this occurs, the environment will be characterized by 1500-2500
J/kg of SBCAPE (possibly more if skies are less cloudy than
currently forecast), steep mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/km, with
0-6km effective shear values of 40-55 kts. With this type of setup,
storms would rapidly become severe/supercells with large hail and
damaging winds the main concerns. Soundings also show low-level
winds backing to the southeast, which really increases 0-3km
helicity values making isolated tornadoes a possibility as well,
especially across the northwestern this of the area which is closer
to the track of the mid-level disturbance.
LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Rain chances remain in most periods of the long term. Another cold
front will push across West Central Texas on Thursday and bring
cooler air, and it will enhance the rain potential for Friday
through the weekend. A developing upper-level disturbance well to
our west will also enhance the rain potential by creating
southwest flow aloft, where embedded minor disturbance will move
across Texas. Isentropic upglide will be best across our southern
counties from Friday through the weekend. Thus, the best chance
for rain will be there. The ECMWF is more aggressive than the GFS
regarding QPF amounts for Friday through the weekend, and the
ECMWF indicates better divergence aloft over Texas for those
periods. So, continuing the best rain chances across our southern
counties looks best. Plus, continuing a PoP forecast closer to
the ECMWF looks better than something closer to the drier GFS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 84 65 86 55 73 / 30 40 5 10 20
San Angelo 84 65 86 57 74 / 40 40 10 10 40
Junction 83 64 87 61 75 / 30 30 30 10 50
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation: Doll
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
6423 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Good flight conditions will prevail at KABI, KSJT, and KBBD through
the next 24 hours. Farther south, ceilings near 1500 feet this
morning will lift to around 4000 feet by late morning. Southwest
wind gusts near 25 kts are likely late this morning and afternoon at
all terminals. These wind gusts will diminish to near 20 kts after
sunset. Showers and thunderstorms may develop this afternoon/evening.
However, confidence in timing/location remain high enough not to
include in the TAFs at this time.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2015/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
..Severe weather possible this afternoon/evening...
The forecast challenges are plentiful through the next 24 hours. The
TTU WRF and HRRR models indicate showers should be developing to our
southwest at 4 AM, moving into the region from west to east this
morning through mid-afternoon. They then try to re-develop
convection to our west by late afternoon, with this convection
dissipating before midnight as it approaches our western counties.
Conversely, the NAM/GFS/ECMWF all show nothing for this morning
through mid afternoon, and then develop convection from mid-
afternoon through midnight at varying locations/intensities across
the region. Given the current satellite imagery and upstream
observations, we`ll lean more towards this scenario.
The NAM/GFS have also trended significantly farther west with the
dryline position this afternoon. The ECMWF brings it farther east
with it positioned along a line from eastern Haskell County, to San
Angelo, to west of Ozona. We`ll take a middle-ground approach with
the expectation of the dryline halting its eastward progression,
being located along the western edge of the forecast area. A
strong cap will remain in place for much of the day. By late
afternoon/early evening, a mid-level jet streak will approach the
area from the southwest. Increasing ascent from this, afternoon
mixing, and convergence along the dryline, may be sufficient to
weaken the cap enough for a few storms to develop.
If this occurs, the environment will be characterized by 1500-2500
J/kg of SBCAPE (possibly more if skies are less cloudy than
currently forecast), steep mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/km, with
0-6km effective shear values of 40-55 kts. With this type of setup,
storms would rapidly become severe/supercells with large hail and
damaging winds the main concerns. Soundings also show low-level
winds backing to the southeast, which really increases 0-3km
helicity values making isolated tornadoes a possibility as well,
especially across the northwestern this of the area which is closer
to the track of the mid-level disturbance.
LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Rain chances remain in most periods of the long term. Another cold
front will push across West Central Texas on Thursday and bring
cooler air, and it will enhance the rain potential for Friday
through the weekend. A developing upper-level disturbance well to
our west will also enhance the rain potential by creating
southwest flow aloft, where embedded minor disturbance will move
across Texas. Isentropic upglide will be best across our southern
counties from Friday through the weekend. Thus, the best chance
for rain will be there. The ECMWF is more aggressive than the GFS
regarding QPF amounts for Friday through the weekend, and the
ECMWF indicates better divergence aloft over Texas for those
periods. So, continuing the best rain chances across our southern
counties looks best. Plus, continuing a PoP forecast closer to
the ECMWF looks better than something closer to the drier GFS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 84 65 86 55 73 / 30 40 5 10 20
San Angelo 84 65 86 57 74 / 40 40 10 10 40
Junction 83 64 87 61 75 / 30 30 30 10 50
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation: Doll
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
458 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
...Severe weather possible this afternoon/evening...
The forecast challenges are plentiful through the next 24 hours. The
TTU WRF and HRRR models indicate showers should be developing to our
southwest at 4 AM, moving into the region from west to east this
morning through mid-afternoon. They then try to re-develop
convection to our west by late afternoon, with this convection
dissipating before midnight as it approaches our western counties.
Conversely, the NAM/GFS/ECMWF all show nothing for this morning
through mid afternoon, and then develop convection from mid-
afternoon through midnight at varying locations/intensities across
the region. Given the current satellite imagery and upstream
observations, we`ll lean more towards this scenario.
The NAM/GFS have also trended significantly farther west with the
dryline position this afternoon. The ECMWF brings it farther east
with it positioned along a line from eastern Haskell County, to San
Angelo, to west of Ozona. We`ll take a middle-ground approach with
the expectation of the dryline halting its eastward progression,
being located along the western edge of the forecast area. A
strong cap will remain in place for much of the day. By late
afternoon/early evening, a mid-level jet streak will approach the
area from the southwest. Increasing ascent from this, afternoon
mixing, and convergence along the dryline, may be sufficient to
weaken the cap enough for a few storms to develop.
If this occurs, the environment will be characterized by 1500-2500
J/kg of SBCAPE (possibly more if skies are less cloudy than
currently forecast), steep mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/km, with
0-6km effective shear values of 40-55 kts. With this type of setup,
storms would rapidly become severe/supercells with large hail and
damaging winds the main concerns. Soundings also show low-level
winds backing to the southeast, which really increases 0-3km
helicity values making isolated tornadoes a possibility as well,
especially across the northwestern this of the area which is closer to
the track of the mid-level disturbance.
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Rain chances remain in most periods of the long term. Another cold
front will push across West Central Texas on Thursday and bring
cooler air, and it will enhance the rain potential for Friday
through the weekend. A developing upper-level disturbance well to
our west will also enhance the rain potential by creating
southwest flow aloft, where embedded minor disturbance will move
across Texas. Isentropic upglide will be best across our southern
counties from Friday through the weekend. Thus, the best chance
for rain will be there. The ECMWF is more aggressive than the GFS
regarding QPF amounts for Friday through the weekend, and the
ECMWF indicates better divergence aloft over Texas for those
periods. So, continuing the best rain chances across our southern
counties looks best. Plus, continuing a PoP forecast closer to
the ECMWF looks better than something closer to the drier GFS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 84 65 86 55 73 / 30 40 5 10 20
San Angelo 84 65 86 57 74 / 40 40 10 10 40
Junction 83 64 87 61 75 / 30 30 30 10 50
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
Doll/Huber
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
101 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS WILL DIP DOWN INTO IFR AFTER 08-09Z FOR THE I-35 TAF
SITES...BUT LATER TOWARD 13Z AT KDRT. THEN LOOK FOR CIGS TO LIFT
BACK INTO MVFR BY 18Z...THEN BECOME SCT BY 20Z. WINDS WILL BE
S-SE AND FAIRLY STEADY AT 10-15 KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2015/
AVIATION... /00Z TAF UPDATE/
CONVECTION OVER MEXICO IS NOT ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE DRT IN THIS TAF
UPDATE AS MOST OF THE MODEL DATA SHOWS LITTLE OR NO ACTIVITY
LATER THIS EVENING. AN OUTLIER IS THE HRRR WHICH SHOWS A SMALL
COMPLEX DEVELOP AND POSSIBLY IMPACT AREAS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
LATE TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MVFR CIGS WILL ARRIVE BY
MIDNIGHT AGAIN AND LOWERS BOTH CIGS AND VSBYS INTO IFR CATEGORIES
EARLY WEDNESDAY. WILL LEAN ON PERSISTENCE TO KEEP VSBYS A BIT
HIGHER. AS WITH TODAY...MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY SKIES SHOULD BE
FILLED WITH AN MVFR CIG. WINDS SHOULD ALSO FOLLOW A DIURNAL
PERSISTENCE TREND.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...STRATOCU HAS
BEEN SLOWER TO ERODE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THAN EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLATED CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN MEXICO. CAN NOT RULE AN ISOLATED STORM
CROSSING INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT CAP MAY
HOLD...ESPECIALLY GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED CLOUDS THAT WERE SLOW TO
ERODE. STRATUS RE-DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT AND SCATTERS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON SIMILAR TO TODAY. OTHERWISE WARM AND BREEZY TOMORROW.
THE DRY LINE ADVANCES SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
AND WITH WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE THE CAP DOES ERODE LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN AREAS. COULD SEE ISOLATED STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ADVANCING SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN HILL
COUNTRY TOMORROW EVENING. AT THE MOMENT UNSURE IF STORMS WILL HOLD
TOGETHER INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR LATE EVENING GIVEN THE CAP. CAN
NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG STORM OR TWO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE RIO GRANDE.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE DRY LINE ADVANCES ALL
THE WAY INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON....WITH THE
MOIST LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. ANOTHER MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND COOLING HELPS TO ERODE CAP FARTHER INTO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
THURSDAY WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A FREDERICKSBURG TO SAN MARCOS
TO LA GRANGE LINE. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
AND NORTH OF THIS LINE.
A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...STALLING
ALONG OR NORTH OF I-10...THEN LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE POOLING WILL BE BEST ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA...COINCIDING WITH BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS.
SCATTERED POPS ARE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE...BUT BEST CHANCES WILL
BE OUT WEST. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW 700MB SHORTWAVE AND
MOISTURE POOL MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY ON FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICANT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...EDWARDS PLATEAU AND
HILL COUNTRY.
DO MAINTAIN POPS INTO SATURDAY GIVEN THE MOISTURE POOL OVER THE
AREA...BUT LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING FEATURE MAY KEEP COVERAGE
IN THE LOW END SCATTERED RANGE. BETTER SHOT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
COMES INTO THE FORECAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AS SOUTHERN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA EJECTS EAST
ACROSS TEXAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 85 68 83 68 84 / - - 10 20 40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 84 68 84 68 82 / - - 10 20 30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 85 68 86 67 85 / - - 10 20 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 84 67 82 66 84 / - - 10 20 40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 84 68 86 67 89 / - 10 20 20 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 84 68 83 67 83 / - - 10 20 40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 85 68 86 67 86 / - - 10 20 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 84 69 82 68 84 / - - 10 20 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 84 70 84 70 83 / - - 10 10 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 85 69 86 69 85 / - - 10 20 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 85 69 87 68 85 / - - 10 10 20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1145 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
40
&&
.AVIATION...
11-3.9 MICRON IR WAS SHOWING LOW CLOUDS SPREADING INLAND FROM THE
COAST. THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS FORECAST AT LEAST MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. WHILE THERE IS A CHANCE FOR IFR...
DECIDED TO GO WITH PREVAILING MVFR FOR NOW. VFR AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 841 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2015/
UPDATE...
SEE EVENING UPDATE.
DISCUSSION...
00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAPPING LAYER BETWEEN 850-700 MB AND
RELATIVELY MEAGER PW VALUES. 850 MB MSTR IS CONFINED TO NE TX TO
SE LA. 700MB LOOKS VERY DRY WITH VERY WARM 700 MB TEMPS EXTENDING
FROM LCH TO BRO. TWEAKED SKY GRIDS AS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS EXPANDING
QUICKLY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES. LEANED TOWARD THE HRRR FOR
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND FEEL SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY PRIOR
TO SUNRISE. MIN TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK SO NO CHANGES PLANNED THERE.
PATCHY FOG STILL BEING REPORTED OVER THE WESTERN GULF SO WILL KEEP
WX GRIDS AS IS.
LOOKING AHEAD...CURRENT FCST SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON TWO
WEATHER EVENTS FOR LATER THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. LOOKS
LIKE HIGH RAIN CHANCES FRI-SUN WITH SUNDAY LOOKING INTERESTING FOR
BOTH HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY STRONG STORMS.
THE HIGH AT BUSH IAH TODAY WAS 87 DEGREES. IT IS THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURE SO FAR THIS YEAR. THE LAST TIME HOUSTON REACHED 87
DEGREES WAS ON OCT 16 2014. 43
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
40
AVIATION...
THE MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE THE THEME OF THE 12Z RAOB
SOUNDINGS AND KEEP A LOW-LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP BY AROUND 06Z
AND PERSIST THROUGH POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 16Z. SOME LOCATIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH THESE LOOK TO BECOME
MORE PREVALENT AT KLBX AND KGLS. EXPECTING VFR AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 69 84 70 83 68 / 10 10 20 50 40
HOUSTON (IAH) 69 83 71 83 70 / 10 10 10 30 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 70 79 71 80 71 / 10 10 10 20 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND
850 PM PDT THU APR 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT AND MOST OF FRIDAY. THE NEXT
DECENT PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD SOME RAIN ONTO MAINLY THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON AND FAR NORTH OREGON COASTAL AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN
MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH DECENT RAINS AND SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW. A COOL SHOWERY ONSHORE FLOW
PATTERN WILL FOLLOW ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOST OF THE
AREA LOOKING DRY ON SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER COOL AND WET
STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT FOR MORE
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER AND
WARMER WEATHER BEGINNING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED
THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON WITH
ANY CASCADE SHOWERS LONG GONE. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT UNDER A WEAK UPPER RIDGE...THOUGH SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL
FOG OR LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
DEWPOINTS AND THUS THE FOG CROSSOVER TEMP HAVE FALLEN AS COMPARED TO
24 HOURS AGO DUE TO THE WARMER DAY TODAY...SO EXPECT ANY FOG WILL BE
PATCHIER TONIGHT THAN THIS MORNING.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT PACIFIC COLD FRONT...WHICH IS
FORECAST TO SPREAD SOME PRECIPITATION ONTO THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND
NORTH OREGON COASTAL AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
REST OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONT SHOULD MOSTLY BE EAST OF THE CASCADES BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL HAVE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST WHERE
WINDS OVER THE WATERS COULD GET CLOSE TO GALE FORCE. THE FRONT WILL
HAVE A DECENT DOSE OF RAIN AS IT MOVES THROUGH. SNOW LEVELS IN THE
CASCADES WILL START OFF WELL ABOVE THE PASSES LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
EVENING...THEN FALL BELOW PASS ELEVATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT
AND ON SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000
FEET ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON
CASCADES...WHILE THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES WILL BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN
4000 AND 5000 FEET. AMOUNTS COULD REACH CLOSE TO 6 INCHES ESPECIALLY
AT THE SKI RESORTS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF ABOUT SANTIAM PASS.
THE COOL POST FRONTAL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP DECENT SHOWER ACTIVITY
GOING THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY. UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY THAT WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TO MOST OF THE
AREA BY SUNDAY. TOLLESON
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH ONSHORE LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...DUE
TO TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN YESTERDAYS AND TODAYS RUNS DECIDED TO
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN AROUND 3000 FT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. WITH
DECENT MOISTURE...MODEST PRE AND POST FRONTAL INSTABILITY...AND
STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW THE CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS
COULD SEE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW TOTALS. STILL NOT EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORMS AT THE MOMENT...BUT WILL NEED TO REEVALUATE IN THE
COMING DAYS. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO RETURN ON WEDNESDAY
AND COULD STICK AROUND THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. EXPECT DRIER
AND WARMER WEATHER...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 70 DEGREES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. /64
&&
.AVIATION...VFR THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. WITH RECENT RAIN
AND CALM WINDS...SHOULD STILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR LOW
STRATUS OR FOG BETWEEN 08-12Z FRI. INCREASING WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH
SHOULD CLEAR OUT FOG BY 15Z IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE THAT FOG WILL IMPACT PROTECTED INLAND SITES...AND HIGHER
CONFIDENCE THAT FOG WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST...REDUCING CIGS AND
VIS TO IFR/LIFR. VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AFTER 16Z THROUGH MIDDAY
SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING RAIN BY 21Z AT THE COAST AND BY 00Z SAT
INLAND.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING. THERE
MAY BE A PERIOD AFTER 08Z WHERE FOG COULD DEVELOP...BUT INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS FRI MORNING SHOULD CLEAR OUT ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS BY
16Z. RAIN ARRIVES BETWEEN 00Z-03Z SAT. -MCCOY/27
&&
.MARINE...PACIFIC FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FRI
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS RAMP UP TO 20 TO 30 KTS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KTS LIKELY JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
MODELS ARE STILL KEEPING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS HOVERING RIGHT AROUND
35 KTS FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A
GALE WATCH AT THIS POINT. WOULD LIKE ANOTHER MODEL RUN GIVEN SUCH
BORDERLINE WINDS. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS DECREASE A BIT TO 15 TO 20
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS THROUGH SAT MORNING. WINDS GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY SAT.
AS WINDS RAMP UP...SEAS BUILD TO 10 TO 12 FT FRI EVENING...PEAKING
FRI EVENING WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. 8 TO 9 FT SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS UP
AROUND 8 TO 10 FT THROUGH SAT. ANOTHER FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE WATERS LATE SUN/EARLY MON...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS BACK UP INTO THE LOW-TO-MIDDLE TEENS.
-MCCOY/27
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 11 AM PDT
SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE
OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 11
AM PDT SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE
FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 11
AM PDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO
FLORENCE OUT 10 NM.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
451 PM PDT THU APR 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers will linger into the evening then a drier and mild
southerly flow returns Friday, pushing temperatures above normal.
A strong cold front passes through Friday night bringing the next
round of showers and breezy winds. Saturday remains windy and
unsettled, with cooler temperatures. Another strong cold front is
expected by Tuesday...with dry weather returning Wednesday and
next Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Friday night: An active spring weather pattern
will persist for the Northwestern US but we will see a break and
period of mild and dry weather in between storm systems. First
off, a weakening low pressure system currently lifting northward
through southern WA will keep enough instability over the area to
promote isolated mountain showers through the early evening.
Showers will be a bit more organized at the base of the trof or
generally over SE WA and the ID Panhandle. Afternoon satellite and
radar support this idea and HRRR for several runs suggest this
cluster will slowly lift north near the WA/ID border late this
afternoon and evening before decaying prior to midnight. There has
been some wavering how far east or west to bring these clusters of
showers with the possibility ranging from Wilbur to ID/MT border
but given the run to run continuity...PoPs have been increased.
Our lowest confidence is related the thunder potential. Model
instability parameters support an isolated threat but excess cloud
cover within these regions may keep temperatures down some and cut
into the potential afternoon CAPE. Overall, the impacts from this
activity will be low.
This wave will lift out the region by early Saturday and shortwave
ridging will briefly return Friday ahead of the next storm system.
Look for increase in southerly winds through the day coupled with
afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 60s. There is a small
chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm developing around NE
OR to the Blue Mtns but confidence is low. If any storms develop,
they will track quickly to the northeast and may brush the Camas
Prairie, L-C Valley, and Central Panhandle Mtns.
A strong cold front will press through the Inland NW Friday night
into early Saturday morning. The front will bring increasing
clouds, chance for showers, and increase in west to southwest
winds. The Basin will receive very light precipitation from this
event with little to no QPF in the immediate lee of the Cascades.
Up to 0.20" will be possible in the Idaho Panhandle and closer to
a half an inch along the Cascade Crest. There will be a good deal
of cooler air behind the front which will allow snow levels to
drop below pass levels in the Cascades early Saturday morning and
periods of snow will be possible just prior to sunrise. /sb
Saturday through Monday morning...A fast moving cold front will
track through the Inland northwest early Saturday morning. This
will result in a chance of rain and mountain snow showers, cooler
temperatures, and gusty winds. Saturday night and Sunday weak high
pressure will build back into the region for weaker winds and
stable conditions.
On Saturday the cold front will cross the Cascades right around
12z and push rapidly through the forecast area through the
morning. Southwest flow ahead of the front will tap into slightly
deeper Pacific moisture. Precipitation should come as showers with
the frontal passage. Behind the front the atmosphere will
destabilize enough for showers through the afternoon and early
evening for just about all locations, with the best chance near
the Cascade crest and the Panhandle mountains. Model guidance
shows there is a low end chance for a lightning strike or two
across the northeast mountains, but confidence is not real high,
so will leave the mention of thunder out of the forecast for now.
The southwest-west flow will likely result in little to no
precipitation for the lower east slopes and deep basin, With
amounts ranging from .10 to .30 for the Cascade crest and
Panhandle mountains. In between the basin and the mountains local
amounts up to .10 of an inch will be possible. Snow levels drop
to between 2500-3500 feet for snow in the mountains and rain in
the lower elevations. Some of the higher elevation could pick up
3-6 inches of fresh snow. The Puget Sound Convergence Zone is
expected to develop across the Cascades in the vicinity of Stevens
Pass and Snoqualmie Pass. If the convergence zone does set up this
could result in several hours of moderate to heavy snow near the
crest.
Moderate to cold air advection behind the cold front will result
in temperatures dropping 10-14 degrees on Saturday with highs on
the cool side of normal.
A spring air mass change with moderate to strong cold air advection,
a tightening surface gradient and 25-30kt 850mb winds sets up the
perfect pattern for a windy/gusty event beginning Saturday morning
and lasting until after sunset Saturday evening. Southwest-west
winds 15-25 mph with gusts 30-35mph will be common across the
area. People doing outside activities should be prepared for a
raw, blustery day.
Saturday night through Monday morning high pressure will build
into the region. Temperatures will likely not be able to rebound
by more than a degree or two on Sunday. Southwest-west surface to
mid level flow and lingering low level moisture will keep a chance
for rain and snow showers in the forecast for the usual up-sloping
areas like the Cascade Crest, the northeast Washington mountains,
and the Idaho Panhandle mountains. Locations that do get
precipitation will be rather light with amounts under a tenth of
an inch. Winds will remain slightly elevated but mainly in the
10-15 mph category. Tobin
Monday through Thursday...Forecast models have continued the
slower trend of a cold front passage...which is expected Monday
night. Southwest flow ahead of the front will probably allow a tongue
of warmer air to move into Eastern Washington and North Idaho with
850mb temps warming to 5-12C. The GFS/GEM solutions are the
warmest while the ECMWF is a bit faster with the cold
front...reaching Central Washington in the late afternoon. This in turn
leads to lower confidence with precise values of high temps on
Monday especially Central and Eastern Washington with a bit higher
confidence of significant warming for North Idaho. As the cold
front moves in Monday night models show it to be a fast mover with
mid level westerly flow leading to the orographically favored
areas of the Cascade crest and Idaho Panhandle likely seeing some
precipitation. Central Washington will likely be rain shadowed
with little to no precipitation, with generally a tenth of an inch
or less for Eastern Washington. Snow levels with the cold front
will be around 4000-5000 feet and then will lower to 2000-3000
feet behind the front on Tuesday. Light to moderate snow
accumulations will be possible in the mountains Monday night and
Tuesday morning.
With the upper trough overhead on Tuesday with 500mb temps around
-34C convective shower activity will pop up with mid level
westerly flow keeping activity isolated in the basin with the most
numerous activity over the mountains of northern Washington and
the Idaho Panhandle. A few thunderstorms will also be possible
mainly over the Idaho Panhandle and possibly extreme Eastern
Washington. Drier air mixing down in Central and Eastern
Washington will result in higher LCL levels (and thus colder LCL
temps), making it more difficult for charge separation with model
soundings showing LCL temps near -10C in the basin.
On Wednesday and Thursday the trough moves out and is replaced by
an upper ridge. The amplitude of the ridge is in question...but
models agree that it will be enough for dry conditions...except
for a chance for a few lingering showers over North Idaho
mountains on Wednesday. With a cooler air mass initially in place
on the back side of the departing trough...and clearing skies most
areas are expected to drop to at or below freezing Tuesday and
Wednesday night. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A negatively tilted upper level trough of lower pressure
will push across the region this evening. Convective showers will
continue through this evening and then dissipate tonight as
surface heating is lost with sunset. Some of the stronger showers
will be capable of producing brief lightning and heavy downpours.
More organized thunderstorm activity has been observed over the
Northeast Blue Mtns and Camas Prairie, but have shown considerable
weakening as they move northeast off of the higher terrain.
Still, there is a small chance that this convection holds on long
enough to impact the KLWS and KPUW TAF sites. Confidence is too
low to include thunderstorms at any other TAF sites. /SVH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 37 64 41 51 32 51 / 30 10 40 40 20 10
Coeur d`Alene 37 63 39 50 31 50 / 30 10 60 60 30 20
Pullman 37 64 43 50 33 52 / 20 10 60 70 20 10
Lewiston 37 69 47 56 36 58 / 20 10 50 40 10 10
Colville 36 67 42 55 31 53 / 20 10 40 60 20 10
Sandpoint 37 62 38 50 30 50 / 20 10 70 80 40 20
Kellogg 35 62 38 44 30 47 / 30 10 70 100 40 30
Moses Lake 38 69 43 58 34 58 / 0 0 10 10 10 10
Wenatchee 40 67 44 56 38 58 / 10 0 10 30 10 10
Omak 36 66 39 57 30 57 / 10 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
226 PM PDT THU APR 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers will linger into the evening then a drier and mild
southerly flow returns Friday, pushing temperatures above normal.
A strong cold front passes through Friday night bringing the next
round of showers and breezy winds. Saturday remains windy and
unsettled, with cooler temperatures. Another strong cold front is
expected by Tuesday...with dry weather returning Wednesday and
next Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Friday night: An active spring weather pattern
will persist for the Northwestern US but we will see a break and
period of mild and dry weather in between storm systems. First
off, a weakening low pressure system currently lifting northward
through southern WA will keep enough instability over the area to
promote isolated mountain showers through the early evening.
Showers will be a bit more organized at the base of the trof or
generally over SE WA and the ID Panhandle. Afternoon satellite and
radar support this idea and HRRR for several runs suggest this
cluster will slowly lift north near the WA/ID border late this
afternoon and evening before decaying prior to midnight. There has
been some wavering how far east or west to bring these clusters of
showers with the possibility ranging from Wilbur to ID/MT border
but given the run to run continuity...PoPs have been increased.
Our lowest confidence is related the thunder potential. Model
instability parameters support an isolated threat but excess cloud
cover within these regions may keep temperatures down some and cut
into the potential afternoon CAPE. Overall, the impacts from this
activity will be low.
This wave will lift out the region by early Saturday and shortwave
ridging will briefly return Friday ahead of the next storm system.
Look for increase in southerly winds through the day coupled with
afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 60s. There is a small
chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm developing around NE
OR to the Blue Mtns but confidence is low. If any storms develop,
they will track quickly to the northeast and may brush the Camas
Prairie, L-C Valley, and Central Panhandle Mtns.
A strong cold front will press through the Inland NW Friday night
into early Saturday morning. The front will bring increasing
clouds, chance for showers, and increase in west to southwest
winds. The Basin will receive very light precipitation from this
event with little to no QPF in the immediate lee of the Cascades.
Up to 0.20" will be possible in the Idaho Panhandle and closer to
a half an inch along the Cascade Crest. There will be a good deal
of cooler air behind the front which will allow snow levels to
drop below pass levels in the Cascades early Saturday morning and
periods of snow will be possible just prior to sunrise. /sb
Saturday through Monday morning...A fast moving cold front will
track through the Inland northwest early Saturday morning. This
will result in a chance of rain and mountain snow showers, cooler
temperatures, and gusty winds. Saturday night and Sunday weak high
pressure will build back into the region for weaker winds and
stable conditions.
On Saturday the cold front will cross the Cascades right around
12z and push rapidly through the forecast area through the
morning. Southwest flow ahead of the front will tap into slightly
deeper Pacific moisture. Precipitation should come as showers with
the frontal passage. Behind the front the atmosphere will
destabilize enough for showers through the afternoon and early
evening for just about all locations, with the best chance near
the Cascade crest and the Panhandle mountains. Model guidance
shows there is a low end chance for a lightning strike or two
across the northeast mountains, but confidence is not real high,
so will leave the mention of thunder out of the forecast for now.
The southwest-west flow will likely result in little to no
precipitation for the lower east slopes and deep basin, With
amounts ranging from .10 to .30 for the Cascade crest and
Panhandle mountains. In between the basin and the mountains local
amounts up to .10 of an inch will be possible. Snow levels drop
to between 2500-3500 feet for snow in the mountains and rain in
the lower elevations. Some of the higher elevation could pick up
3-6 inches of fresh snow. The Puget Sound Convergence Zone is
expected to develop across the Cascades in the vicinity of Stevens
Pass and Snoqualmie Pass. If the convergence zone does set up this
could result in several hours of moderate to heavy snow near the
crest.
Moderate to cold air advection behind the cold front will result
in temperatures dropping 10-14 degrees on Saturday with highs on
the cool side of normal.
A spring air mass change with moderate to strong cold air advection,
a tightening surface gradient and 25-30kt 850mb winds sets up the
perfect pattern for a windy/gusty event beginning Saturday morning
and lasting until after sunset Saturday evening. Southwest-west
winds 15-25 mph with gusts 30-35mph will be common across the
area. People doing outside activities should be prepared for a
raw, blustery day.
Saturday night through Monday morning high pressure will build
into the region. Temperatures will likely not be able to rebound
by more than a degree or two on Sunday. Southwest-west surface to
mid level flow and lingering low level moisture will keep a chance
for rain and snow showers in the forecast for the usual up-sloping
areas like the Cascade Crest, the northeast Washington mountains,
and the Idaho Panhandle mountains. Locations that do get
precipitation will be rather light with amounts under a tenth of
an inch. Winds will remain slightly elevated but mainly in the
10-15 mph category. Tobin
Monday through Thursday...Forecast models have continued the
slower trend of a cold front passage...which is expected Monday
night. Southwest flow ahead of the front will probably allow a tongue
of warmer air to move into Eastern Washington and North Idaho with
850mb temps warming to 5-12C. The GFS/GEM solutions are the
warmest while the ECMWF is a bit faster with the cold
front...reaching Central Washington in the late afternoon. This in turn
leads to lower confidence with precise values of high temps on
Monday especially Central and Eastern Washington with a bit higher
confidence of significant warming for North Idaho. As the cold
front moves in Monday night models show it to be a fast mover with
mid level westerly flow leading to the orographically favored
areas of the Cascade crest and Idaho Panhandle likely seeing some
precipitation. Central Washington will likely be rain shadowed
with little to no precipitation, with generally a tenth of an inch
or less for Eastern Washington. Snow levels with the cold front
will be around 4000-5000 feet and then will lower to 2000-3000
feet behind the front on Tuesday. Light to moderate snow
accumulations will be possible in the mountains Monday night and
Tuesday morning.
With the upper trough overhead on Tuesday with 500mb temps around
-34C convective shower activity will pop up with mid level
westerly flow keeping activity isolated in the basin with the most
numerous activity over the mountains of northern Washington and
the Idaho Panhandle. A few thunderstorms will also be possible
mainly over the Idaho Panhandle and possibly extreme Eastern
Washington. Drier air mixing down in Central and Eastern
Washington will result in higher LCL levels (and thus colder LCL
temps), making it more difficult for charge separation with model
soundings showing LCL temps near -10C in the basin.
On Wednesday and Thursday the trough moves out and is replaced by
an upper ridge. The amplitude of the ridge is in question...but
models agree that it will be enough for dry conditions...except
for a chance for a few lingering showers over North Idaho
mountains on Wednesday. With a cooler air mass initially in place
on the back side of the departing trough...and clearing skies most
areas are expected to drop to at or below freezing Tuesday and
Wednesday night. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: An upper low drifts from the WA/OR border toward the
northern Rockies. This feature and afternoon instability will
bring increasing clouds and a threat of isolated to scattered
showers this afternoon, particularly closer to the ID/WA border
eastward and to a lesser extent near the Cascades. A more
organized cluster of showers will drift from KPUW-KLWS to KGEG-
KCOE btwn 22-03z. There is a threat for thunder but confidence is
too low to include in TAF. Any storms will bring the potential for
brief downpours of rain and small hail. /sb
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 37 64 41 51 32 51 / 30 10 40 40 20 10
Coeur d`Alene 37 63 39 50 31 50 / 30 10 60 60 30 20
Pullman 37 64 43 50 33 52 / 20 10 60 70 20 10
Lewiston 37 69 47 56 36 58 / 20 10 50 40 10 10
Colville 36 67 42 55 31 53 / 20 10 40 60 20 10
Sandpoint 37 62 38 50 30 50 / 20 10 70 80 40 20
Kellogg 35 62 38 44 30 47 / 30 10 70 100 40 30
Moses Lake 38 69 43 58 34 58 / 0 0 10 10 10 10
Wenatchee 40 67 44 56 38 58 / 10 0 10 30 10 10
Omak 36 66 39 57 30 57 / 10 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1105 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
TWO AREAS OF CONCERN TONIGHT FOR PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST WILL BE
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES
BY THE REGION. THE LATEST INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO POINT TO THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AS IT COMES OUT OF
EASTERN IOWA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ON THIS PATH...THE WARM
SECTOR AND THE BEST SUPPORT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE
OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKING AT THE TRENDS IN THE 09.19Z RAP AND
HRRR...THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW LATE
THIS AFTERNOON COULD POSSIBLY CLIP GRANT COUNTY BUT SHOULD BE TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z. BASED ON THIS SCENARIO...WILL ONLY
SHOW ABOUT A 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS FOR EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE OTHER AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE IN THE DEFORMATION AREA ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW. THIS AREA LOOKS TO HAVE SOME PRETTY
GOOD FORCING IN IT THIS EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY
OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND
TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A QUICK SHOT OF
STRONG PV ADVECTION TO OCCUR IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER. THERE IS A
GOOD LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
30S AND 40S ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE LOW AND IN THE 60S AND 70S IN
THE WARM SECTOR. BOTH THE 09.12Z NAM AND GFS SHOW MODERATE TO
STRONG FRONTOGENESIS OCCURRING IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE WITH THIS
BEING THE STRONGEST IN THE 750-650 MB LAYER. THIS FRONTOGENESIS
LOOKS TO SIT UNDERNEATH AN AREA OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
FROM A COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE. THE NAM SUGGESTS THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD GET STRONG ENOUGH TO WRAP THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT
AROUND THE LOW TO PRODUCE 4-6 UBAR/S OF ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE ON THE
295K SURFACE THIS EVENING IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA AS THE
FRONTOGENESIS. LOOKS LIKE THE DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION IS ALREADY
STARTING TO FORM ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND EXPECT THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO GROW AS THE FORCING INCREASES THIS EVENING. WHEN THE
STRONGEST FORCING OCCURS...THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME
HIGH PRECIPITATION RATES TO ALLOW FOR A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW
DESPITE SOME WARM LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY TEMPERATURES. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR THIS TO OCCUR THIS EVENING WILL BE FROM SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE DURATION OF THIS
SHOULD NOT BE VERY LONG OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...BUT THE SNOW
COULD PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR NORTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THIS COULD LEAD TO ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES
ACROSS TAYLOR COUNTY AND WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
HANDLE THIS.
A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.
IT LOOKS LIKE A LOT OF THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL GET SCOURED OUT
BEHIND THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH BUT STILL EXPECT THAT THIS WAVE
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE THEN LOOKS TO BUILD IN BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM AND DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION TO KEEP THE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD DRY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
THE MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
COMING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH SHOULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOME DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE 09.12Z GFS AND ECMWF ON HOW FAST THIS ACTIVITY MOVES
IN SUNDAY WITH THE GFS QUICKER TO BRING IT IN THAN THE ECMWF. WILL
ATTEMPT TO RESOLVE THESE DIFFERENCES WITH LATER FORECASTS ONCE THE
SHORT TERM WEATHER QUIETS DOWN. THE MODELS ALSO ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR LATER IN THE PERIOD BRINGING ANOTHER SYSTEM INTO THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD. WITH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...COULD SEE SOME ACTIVITY FORM
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH
THURSDAY. HAVE LET THE MODEL CONSENSUS GRIDS RIDE WITH THIS SYSTEM
WITH GENERAL 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
CIGS:
GOING TO BE QUICK IMPROVEMENT AS THE PCPN AREA MOVES EAST.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBS POINT TO THE CIGS GIVING WAY TO SCT
SKIES ABOUT AN HOUR AFTER THE PCPN ENDS. SHOULD HAVE CLEARED AT KRST
BY NEXT TAF ISSUANCE...AND BY 07-08Z FOR KLSE.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRI
MORNING-AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS LOOK LIKELY WITH THIS...BUT SHOULD
CLEAR AGAIN AROUND 00Z.
WINDS:
WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN A BIT OVERNIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL STAY
+10 KTS THROUGH THE DAY FRI. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST.
WX/VSBY:
DEFORMATION REGION OF A STORM SYSTEM IS CLEARING KRST...AND SHOULD
PASS KLSE BY 07Z. SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS IN THE RASN...BUT IMPROVES
AFTER IT ENDS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED -SHRA IS LIKELY FROM LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. COULD
HAVE SOME DIP INTO MVFR VSBYS WITH THE SHOWERS...BUT MOSTLY P6SM.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT
FRIDAY FOR WIZ017.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
935 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
AND NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
HAVE DECIDED TO UPGRADE MY NW/NRN 4 COUNTIES TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING. NOT A CLEAR-CUT SITN AT ALL...BUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF
THE DYNAMICS TO COME ACRS THAT AREA LATER IN THE NGT...COULD
EASILY SEE SOME 1-2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES. WL CALL FOR 4-8
INCH TOTALS IN THE WSW. THINK THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL END UP IN AN
AREA NE OF A LINE FROM BOULDER JUNCTION...TO RHINELANDER...TO
CRANDON...TO FLORENCE.
ELSEWHERE ACRS THE AREA...INITIAL SURGE OF PCPN HAS SHIFTED
THROUGH...BUT EXPECT SOME REDEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHRTWV.
WL KEEP HIGH POPS GOING MOST OF THE NGT.
UPDATED PRODUCT SUITE WL BE OUT ASAP.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 536 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
FCST ISSUES SPAN THE SEASONS THIS EVENING AS STRENGTHENING
CYCLONE LIFTS NEWD FM IA. CLUSTER OF SVR STORMS IN S-C WI HEADING
NE. LOCAL MESO PLOTS SHOW POOL OF INSTABILITY EXPANDING NE...BUT
NOT AS QUICKLY AS THE STORMS ARE MOVG NE. IT/S GOING TO BE A CLOSE
CALL ON WHETHER A SVR STORM COULD CLIP THE SRN PART OF THE FCST
AREA BEFORE WEAKENING. THE PRIMARY SVR THREAT WOULD BE HAIL...AND
THINK THAT WOULD NEED TO HAPPEN WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HRS...BEFORE
PCPN GETS TOO WIDESPREAD.
IT/S A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SITN ACRS THE NW CORNER OF THE FCST
AREA...WHERE THE THREAT IS HEAVY SNOW. WATCHING THE UPR
DEFORMATION ZONE EXPAND NEWD AS MAIN SHRTWV EJECTS TOWARD WI.
EXTRAOLATION OF SRN EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE WOULD BRING IT
ACRS THE NW PART OF THE FCST AREA. MAIN QUESTIONS FOR SNOW AMNTS
CONTINUE TO BE TIMING OF THE CHANGEOVER AND HOW MUCH PCPN FALLS
AFTER THAT TIME. NRN STREAM SHRTWV EDGING IN FM THE NW MAY TEND TO
DISRUPT THE COMMA HEAD AND NUDGE IT EWD...LIMITING THE AMNT OF
PCPN THAT FALLS AFTER THE CHANGEOVER. ON THE OTHER HAND...PCPN
COULD BE FALLING QUITE HEAVILY AFTER THE CHANGEOVER...SO THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW. NEED TO WATCH THIS
VERY CLOSELY...BUT LIKELY WON/T BE ABLE TO MAKE ANY HEADLINE
CHANGES UNTIL WE START TO SEE THE CHANGEOVER OCCURRING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LOW
PRESSURE HEADING NORTHEAST AS IT ENTERS SOUTH-CENTRAL IOWA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. COMMA HEAD PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING JUST TO THE
REAR OF THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WHERE
HEAVY SNOW AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN DETECTED.
DOWNSTREAM OF THE SYSTEM...A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IS GENERATING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF WISCONSIN. MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED AS THEY REACHED THE WAUTOMA TO
MANITOWOC CORRIDOR SINCE ELEVATED INSTABILITY HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO
EXTEND THAT FAR NORTH. AS A RESULT...LOOK FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND HEAVY WINTRY
PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE SOUTH AS A
CYCLONE PASSES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
TONIGHT...THE STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER NEBRASKA WILL SWING NORTHEAST AS
IT PUSHES A SURFACE LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF ILLINOIS TO
CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE STRAITS OF MACKINAC. AHEAD OF THE
LOW...ELEVATED INSTABILITY UP TO 500 J/KG MAY SNEAK INTO
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITHIN A REGION OF STRONG UPWARD MOTION WHICH
COULD GENERATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH AROUND MID-EVENING.
IF THUNDERSTORMS DO OCCUR...SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW...EXCELLENT UPPER DIVERGENCE COMBINED WITH
STRONG MID-LEVEL FGEN AND REDUCED STABILITY WILL LEAD TO A HEALTHY
DEFORMATION BAND DEVELOPING FROM WEST-CENTRAL TO NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THIS DEFORMATION BAND WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP AT TIMES. WITH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
MIDDLE 30S AT THE START OF THE EVENING...PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE ALL
RAIN FOR THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS. THEN COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY GET
DRAWN INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO CHANGE PRECIP TO SLEET AND
THEN SNOW. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE NORTH COULD SEE A FEW
HOUR PERIOD OF SLEET WHICH COULD LEAD TO DECENT SLEET ACCUMULATIONS
GIVEN THE EXPECTED PRECIP RATES. THEN ONCE TEMPS COOL ENOUGH FOR
ALL SNOW...SNOWFALL RATES COULD EASILY EXCEED AN INCH PER HOUR AT
TIMES. BUT ONE OF THE MOST DIFFICULT ASPECTS OF THIS FORECAST IS IN
REGARDS TO HOW QUICKLY THIS CHANGE OVER OCCURS SINCE COLD AIR IS NOT
THAT PLENTIFUL TO OUR NORTH. BEST GUESS FROM GUIDANCE INDICATES
THIS CHANGE OVER WILL OCCUR LATE THIS EVENING OVER N-C WISCONSIN AND
EARLY OVERNIGHT OVER TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE IRON MOUNTAIN
AREA. THE INITIAL RAIN AND SLEET WILL EAT UP SOME OF THE QPF
AMOUNTS THIS EVENING...BUT GUIDANCE STILL POINT TOWARDS OVER A HALF
INCH FALLING AFTER 06Z. ADDITIONALLY...THE HI-RES MODELS ARE ALSO
INDICATING BANDING TAKING PLACE...AND A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST
THAN SHOWN PREVIOUSLY. HAVE SHIFTED QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS TO THE
EAST AS A RESULT...WHICH GIVES SNOW AMOUNTS OF 3-6 INCHES FROM
LINCOLN AND LANGLADE ON NORTH. A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF THAT
COULD TURN OUT TO BE SLEET ACCUMULATION. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE SNOW BANDS SET UP. BECAUSE
OF THIS UNCERTAINTY...WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM
02Z-13Z.
FRIDAY...PRECIP WITH SNOW WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY AND RAIN TO THE
EAST WILL DIMINISH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE A CLOUDY AND
WINDY START TO THE DAY OTHERWISE. A TRAILING SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD CREATE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. LEFT A SMALL
CHANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S NORTH TO
LOW 50S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
PCPN TRENDS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AND DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. USED
A BLEND OF THE BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE SETS FOR MIN TEMPS...BUT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A LINGERING SNOW COVER OVER NC WI...HAVE BUMPED MIN
TEMPS DOWN THERE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
WITH DEVELOPING SOUTH FLOW RESULTING IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN WI ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY EVENING. HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
ARRIVAL TIME OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON (MAINLY NC/C WI LATE
IN THE DAY)...BUT WILL SPREAD HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS OVER THE
ENTIRE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. H8 LI`S SLIGHTLY BLO ZERO AND STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLD TSTMS...SO
HAVE INCLUDED A SLGT CHC OF TSTMS.
HIGH PRESSURE AND AND ASSOCIATED DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO WISCONSIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE FCST BECOMES A BIT MUDDLED DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS
SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AND LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT EDGE TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MOST MODELS NOW KEEP
TUESDAY NIGHT DRY...WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING PCPN INTO THE REGION
ON WEDS...AND THE GFS HOLDING OFF UNTIL ABOUT THURSDAY. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CARRY CHC POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT ANY PCPN THAT OCCURS SHOULD FALL AS ALL RAIN...WHICH
IS DEFINITELY A STEP IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 929 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
MAY NOT NEED TO CARRY THUNDER IN THE 06Z TAFS...WL MAKE AN
ISSUANCE TIME DECIDISON ON THAT. OTHERWISE...VERY POOR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF THE TAF PERIOD WL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE FRIDAY AS THE CYCLONE PULLS AWAY FM THE REGION.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ011-012.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ018.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ005-010.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
436 AM MDT WED APR 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 206 AM MDT WED APR 8 2015
TODAY...FIRST CHALLENGE IS THE FOG. AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED FROM
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TO CHEYENNE...KIMBALL AND
SIDNEY. BASED ON SATELLITE LOOPS AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER MODEL
PROGS...EXPECT FOG TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE
DISSIPATING. WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG INCREASING IN COVERAGE FROM
CHEYENNE WESTWARD TO THE FOOTHILLS...AS SEEN ON WEBCAMS...WE HAVE
OPTED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR CHEYENNE AND THE EASTERN
FOOTHILLS OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH MID MORNING.
IN THE AFTERNOON...PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES TO
CENTRAL WYOMING AND AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM LUSK
TO PINE BLUFFS. IMPRESSIVE 850 MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS WILL ALSO BE
ALONG THE WYOMING AND NEBRASKA STATE LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH CAPE IS RELATIVELY MINIMAL...ENOUGH DYNAMIC LIFT AND
QUASIGEOSTROPHIC LIFT WILL COMBINE WITH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY TO
PRODUCE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING ROUGHLY EAST OF A LUSK TO PINE BLUFFS LINE.
TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVE EASTWARD OVER OUR REGION. WITH DECENT DYNAMICS AND PLENTY OF
LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL SEE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN LOCATIONS FROM DOUGLAS TO
CHADRON.
THURSDAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES FURTHER AWAY TO OUR
EAST...EXPECT AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO DECREASE AS WELL. COOL
AND WINDY DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR LUSK TO
PINE BLUFFS IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS PAINTING SOME QPF...THOUGH WILL
BLEND AND GO ALONG WITH OUR NEIGHBORS KEEPING OUR WEATHER DRY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT WED APR 8 2015
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE FOR SATURDAY WITH BREEZY WINDS AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE TEMPERATURE WISE AS
700MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. LOOKING AT LOW 70S IN
THE PANHANDLE AND LOW 60S WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON WINDS FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY
TIME FRAME. GFS NOW SHOWING THE STRONGER WINDS BEGINNING TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
NEED TO BE WATCHING A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK. GFS AND ECMWF TRACK THIS LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO MONDAY WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MAKING IT INTO OUR
EASTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. RIGHT
NOW...FORECAST 700MB TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ABOVE FREEZING...SO
MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE SHOULD FALL AS LIQUID. BUT IF THEY SHOULD
COME IN JUST A FEW DEGREES COLDER OR THE LOW TRACKS A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SIGNIFICANT SNOW FALL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM MDT TUE APR 7 2015
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH EAST TO
SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW. HRRR GUIDANCE KEEPS LOW CONDITIONS IN
THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING FOR AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
BEFORE BREAKING AT 17Z OR SO.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 206 AM MDT WED APR 8 2015
MINIMAL CONCERNS AS HUMIDITIES WILL BE ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS TODAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
421 AM MDT WED APR 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 206 AM MDT WED APR 8 2015
TODAY...FIRST CHALLENGE IS THE FOG. AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED FROM
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TO CHEYENNE...KIMBALL AND
SIDNEY. BASED ON SATELLITE LOOPS AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER MODEL
PROGS...EXPECT FOG TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE
DISSIPATING. WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG INCREASING IN COVERAGE FROM
CHEYENNE WESTWARD TO THE FOOTHILLS...AS SEEN ON WEBCAMS...WE HAVE
OPTED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR CHEYENNE AND THE EASTERN
FOOTHILLS OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH MID MORNING.
IN THE AFTERNOON...PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES TO
CENTRAL WYOMING AND AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM LUSK
TO PINE BLUFFS. IMPRESSIVE 850 MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS WILL ALSO BE
ALONG THE WYOMING AND NEBRASKA STATE LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH CAPE IS RELATIVELY MINIMAL...ENOUGH DYNAMIC LIFT AND
QUASIGEOSTROPHIC LIFT WILL COMBINE WITH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY TO
PRODUCE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING ROUGHLY EAST OF A LUSK TO PINE BLUFFS LINE.
TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVE EASTWARD OVER OUR REGION. WITH DECENT DYNAMICS AND PLENTY OF
LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL SEE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN LOCATIONS FROM DOUGLAS TO
CHADRON.
THURSDAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES FURTHER AWAY TO OUR
EAST...EXPECT AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO DECREASE AS WELL. COOL
AND WINDY DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR LUSK TO
PINE BLUFFS IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS PAINTING SOME QPF...THOUGH WILL
BLEND AND GO ALONG WITH OUR NEIGHBORS KEEPING OUR WEATHER DRY.
.FIRE WEATHER...MINIMAL CONCERNS AS HUMIDITIES WILL BE ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT WED APR 8 2015
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE FOR SATURDAY WITH BREEZY WINDS AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE TEMPERATURE WISE AS
700MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. LOOKING AT LOW 70S IN
THE PANHANDLE AND LOW 60S WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON WINDS FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY
TIME FRAME. GFS NOW SHOWING THE STRONGER WINDS BEGINNING TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
NEED TO BE WATCHING A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK. GFS AND ECMWF TRACK THIS LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO MONDAY WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MAKING IT INTO OUR
EASTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. RIGHT
NOW...FORECAST 700MB TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ABOVE FREEZING...SO
MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE SHOULD FALL AS LIQUID. BUT IF THEY SHOULD
COME IN JUST A FEW DEGREES COLDER OR THE LOW TRACKS A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SIGNIFICANT SNOW FALL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM MDT TUE APR 7 2015
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH EAST TO
SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW. HRRR GUIDANCE KEEPS LOW CONDITIONS IN
THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING FOR AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
BEFORE BREAKING AT 17Z OR SO.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 206 AM MDT WED APR 8 2015
MINIMAL CONCERNS AS HUMIDITIES WILL BE ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS TODAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1104 PM MDT TUE APR 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT TUE APR 7 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM
CURRENTLY NEAR THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTLINE FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. FOR TODAY...LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK STILL LINGERING
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AS FAR WEST AS SCOTTSBLUFF. THE FOG HAS
LIFTED FROM THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECT THE FOG TO REFORM TONIGHT.
CURRENT KCYS RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEAR
AND SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. CAN NOT
RULE OUT SOME THUNDER INTO THIS EVENING...SO KEPT ISOLATED THUNDER
WITH A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE EAST OF
I25.
FOR TONIGHT...ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. FOG WILL REFORM AND
POTENTIALLY PUSH AS FAR WEST AS THE LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE MARGINAL FOR SOME DRIZZLE ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA...BUT KEPT LOW POP AND PATCHY/OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE FOR
NOW. DRY AIR JUST ABOVE 750 MB MAY PREVENT WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE FROM
DEVELOPING HOWEVER.
MODELS ARE COMING INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
NORTHWARD TRACK OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS INITIALLY MOVES OVER WYOMING...AND THEN DIGS A BIT SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO CYCLOGENESIS OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND
WESTERN KANSAS. WITH THE MORE NORTHWARD TRACK AND RELATIVE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM...SNOWFALL APPEARS TO BE MUCH LESS
OF A CONCERN COMPARED TO 3 TO 4 DAYS AGO. IN FACT...SOME AREAS
FURTHER SOUTH WILL BE LUCKY TO GET ANYTHING AT ALL FROM THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...TSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND SOME MAY BECOME STRONG OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. CAPE VALUES AND LI/S ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE...BUT THERE IS
SOME DYNAMIC FORCING WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. DYNAMICS AND STRONG
WIND SHEAR MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW STRONGER STORMS
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTAIN BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL...HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE GFS...NAM...AND GEM ALL SHOW A DRY
SLOT MOVING ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE
PRECIPITATION MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. KEPT POP ABOVE
60 PERCENT FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...MAINLY NORTH OF I80 WITH LOWER
POP NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. COLDER AIR BEHIND THE PACIFIC COLD
FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH RAINFALL CHANGING TO SNOW FROM RAWLINS TO LARAMIE
AROUND SUNSET. THIS COLDER AIR WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. SNOW LEVELS APPEARS TO BE
LOWER AROUND 4500 FEET BY EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT
THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY MOVE EAST INTO THE GREAT PLAINS ON
THURSDAY...GREATLY LIMITING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. EXPECT MAYBE 1 TO 2
INCHES OF SNOW WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. FOR THE HIGH PLAINS...GENERALLY A DUSTING TO UP TO
ONE INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY NEAR THE LARAMIE RANGE AND
AROUND THE PINE AND CHEYENNE RIDGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY
WILL BE COOLER...BUT STILL IN THE 40S FOR HIGHS DUE TO SOME LATE
DAY SUNSHINE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT TUE APR 7 2015
A FEW MINOR MODEL DIFFERENCES EARLY IN THE FCST PERIOD WITH THE GFS
SHOWING A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DRIFTING ACROSS CENTRAL MT ON FRI
AFTN. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS BROAD RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...WHICH
WOULD TEND TO BE THE WARMER AND DRIER SOLUTION. THIS IS THE OUTLIER
ATTM SO HAVE KEPT TEMPS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AND
MAINTAINED MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. A QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL GOVERN THE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. H7-H3 RH PROGS FROM THE GFS/ECM/GEM ALL SUGGEST WE
SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE AS A TRANSITORY RIDGE PASSES OVER THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. H7 TEMPS AROUND 3-5 C AND LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WILL HELP YIELD 65-75 DEGREE READINGS EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE ON SAT AFTN. A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES ON
SUN/MON. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIFFERS WITH THE TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE GFS KEEPING MOST OF THE ENERGY
TO OUR NORTH. THAT IS WHERE THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR PCPN COULD
REMAIN AS WELL. DEFINITELY LOOKING AT A WINDIER STRETCH OF DAYS
SUN/MON WITH INCREASING H7-H5 GRADIENTS AND RESULTANT STRONG FLOW
ALOFT. OVERALL EXPECT A PERIOD OF SEASONAL WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PCPN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM MDT TUE APR 7 2015
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH EAST TO
SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW. HRRR GUIDANCE KEEPS LOW CONDITIONS IN
THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING FOR AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
BEFORE BREAKING AT 17Z OR SO.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT TUE APR 7 2015
LOW FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK AS A PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION STARTING TOMORROW. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
TSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA.
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TRENDING LOWER.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...TJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
323 AM MDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT FRI APR 10 2015
WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA THRU TONIGHT AS A WK
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING. THERE WILL BE
QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE ABV 500 MB WITH LAPSE RATES AOB 8 C/KM.
HOWEVER CAPES ARE FCST TO BE ONLY IN THE 100-200 J/KG RANGE MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE PCPN WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF WDLY SCT HIGH BASED SHOWERS WITH THE FOCUS MAINLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE. FOR THIS EVENING
THE HIGH BASED SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY END BEFORE MIDNIGHT. AS FOR
HIGHS THIS AFTN READINGS WILL RISE BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S
OVER NERN CO.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT FRI APR 10 2015
WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LIGHT
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR
SATURDAY...PUSHING HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S OVER THE
PLAINS...WITH UPPER 50S AND 60S MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND
FOOTHILLS...AND 40S IN HIGHER MOUNTAIN AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE MILD ESPECIALLY IN/NEAR THE FRONT
RANGE AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE. THIS
SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO BY LATE IN THE DAY.
THERE IS ONLY SLIGHT COOLING AND LITTLE IF ANY MOISTENING WITH
THIS FRONT. AS A RESULT...SUNDAY WILL FEATURE CONTINUED WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS WITH POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...SEE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THERE IS MORE
AGREEMENT AS DISCUSSED YESTERDAY THAT THE EJECTING TROUGH FROM
BAJA WILL STAY TOO FAR SOUTH TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS LIKELY
PUSHING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S ON THE PLAINS AGAIN BY TUESDAY.
THEN ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD NEXT POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM MOVING IN
FROM THE PACIFIC. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THEN
CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD EXISTS FROM THERE. SOME DRIVE IT TOWARD
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WHILE OTHERS LIKE THE ECMWF MAINTAIN A MUCH
MORE OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE WAVE. HARD TO GET CAUGHT UP IN ANY
DETAILS AT THIS TIME CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF SPREAD EVEN IN THE
GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. WILL HAVE POPS JUST ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY AS
THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO AT LEAST A TROUGH IN THE
VICINITY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT FRI APR 10 2015
WINDS HAVE BECOME SLY EARLY THIS MORNING AND MAY BECOME LIGHT WSW BY
15Z. BOTH THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE A WK DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOPING BY
18Z GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE AIRPORT. IF THIS OCCURS THEN WINDS MAY
TREND TOWARDS A MORE ENE COMPONENT FOR THE AFTN HOURS. BY EARLY
EVENING THE CYCLONE IS FCST TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE WITH DRAINAGE
WINDS DEVELOPING BY 06Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY THRU
TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A MID LVL CLOUD DECK FM MID AFTN THRU
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT FRI APR 10 2015
LOW HUMIDITIES WILL OCCUR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY...THEY WILL STAY UNDER RED FLAG CRITERIA.
ON SUNDAY...GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN MOST
AREAS BY MID DAY WITH INCREASED MIXING AND APPROACH OF COLD
FRONT. HUMIDITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE MUCH WITH THIS DRY
FRONT...SO SOME POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. PEAK GUSTS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE
WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...RPK
FIRE WEATHER...BARJENBRUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
503 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...BRINGING RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A MILDER AIR MASS
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH MORE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY DRY AND BRISK CONDITIONS
OPEN THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. SUNNY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT TODAY FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1200 FT IN SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN MA...
AS OF 455 AM EDT...SEVERAL AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...ALONG
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF
RAINFALL EXTENDING FROM THE SE CATSKILLS ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY INTO NW CT AND WESTERN MA.
MEANWHILE...RECENT MESONET OBS...AND ALSO INFORMATION FROM THE
00Z/10 KALY SOUNDING INDICATE A PERSISTENT SUBFREEZING LAYER
GENERALLY ABOVE 1200 FT ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN MA. THIS
WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO...EASTERN BENNINGTON CO...AND
WEST CENTRAL WINDHAM COS...MAINLY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1200
FT...THROUGH 6 AM THIS MORNING. IN THESE AREAS...SOME ICE
ACCRETION OF UP TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ELSEWHERE...PERIODS OF RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
DAYBREAK...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.
THE OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE BETWEEN ROUGHLY
8 AM AND 11 AM FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE REGION...AS THE INITIAL
LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS NORTHWARD...AND THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS AND LIFT CLOSER TO THE SFC COLD FRONT REMAIN TO THE WEST.
SO A SLIGHT LULL IN PRECIP IS QUITE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. DURING THIS LULL...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
COULD DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND AREAS JUST S OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AS 925-850 HPA WINDS VEER INTO THE SOUTHWEST...AND SOME
DOWNSLOPING FROM THE CATSKILLS CONTRIBUTES TO SOME WARMING/DRYING.
ELSEWHERE...THE COLD STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY PERSIST
LONGER...PERHAPS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER HUDSON VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND ALSO SE VT.
EVENTUALLY...SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECEDE
AND ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT INSTABILITY SHOULD
REMAIN RATHER WEAK...AND ALSO THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
PASS MAINLY TO OUR N AND W. HIGHER RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT REMAINS
GENERALLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. WILL INDICATE MAINLY HIGH CHC
POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
TEMPS WILL BE VERY TRICKY TODAY GIVEN THE INITIAL COLD AND STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST AGEOSTROPHIC
WINDS. HOWEVER...TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY RISE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH 50S TO LOWER 60S EXPECTED IN VALLEY AREAS FROM
ALBANY SOUTH...AND MAINLY 40S AND 50S TO THE NORTH AND ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE WARMEST AREAS MAY ULTIMATELY BE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CATSKILLS/SCHOHARIE VALLEY...ESP SHOULD ANY BREAKS
OF SUN DEVELOP. MAX TEMPS MAY REACH 60-65 OR WARMER IN THESE
AREAS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING
AT 15-25 MPH...ESP ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE TACONICS/GREENS
AND BERKSHIRES. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT PASSES...EVEN STRONGER WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE
SOME GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH COULD OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...EVENING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR AREAS NEAR AND
E OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. SKIES SHOULD THEN BECOME CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY...BEFORE CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INCREASE
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES. SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR LESS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S.
SATURDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
CLOUDS...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN/SNOW...MAINLY
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN VT. SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH PASSES. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER
STRONG THROUGH SATURDAY AS DEEP MIXING OCCURS. EXPECT WIND GUSTS
TO REACH 35-45 MPH IN MANY AREAS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...STRONGEST IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT MAY ONLY REACH THE 30S.
SAT NT-SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SAT NT...AND SUNNY
SKIES ON SUNDAY. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS WILL BE RATHER
COOL...GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. SUN AFTERNOON MAXES
SHOULD BE QUITE MILD WITH LIGHT WINDS...WITH LOWER/MID 60S IN
VALLEYS AND MAINLY 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WE BEGIN THIS LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST UNDER TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
MEANWHILE...RATHER STRONG AND FAST MOVING PACIFIC ENERGY COMES
ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EJECTS OUT ONTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE...THE RETURN FLOW
COMBINING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC ENERGY WILL ALLOW DEEPER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF TO BECOME ENTRAINED ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE IMPACT FOR OUR
REGION WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVING MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
QPF FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW TRENDS OF A BIT HIGHER
AMOUNTS.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY. HOWEVER..CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY KEEP CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE COOL WITH MAINLY 50S AND LOWER 60S EXPECTED.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SURFACE TO
ALOFT WILL NOT ONLY KEEP OUR WEATHER TRANQUIL...BUT WITH THERMAL
PROFILES MODERATING AND MID APRIL SUNSHINE IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE
SPRING THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. AVERAGE HIGHS CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND PERHAPS NEAR 70F WITH FAVORABLE
DOWNSLOPING WITHIN THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE 30S ACROSS THE TERRAIN TO 40S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COMBINATION OF MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT AS WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD WITH OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT
DISCUSSION...LLWS WILL BECOME AN ISSUE AS EVIDENT IN THE LATEST
VWP FROM THE RADAR AND HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION IN THE LATEST
FORECASTS OVERNIGHT.
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY...PER THE HRRR AND 4KM SPC WRF
REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS...SEEMS THERE WILL BE A REDUCTION IN PRECIP
COVERAGE AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. LATER IN THE DAY...COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH A CHC-SCT CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
FOR NOW...WE WILL PLACE A PROB30 AND MONITOR TRENDS. FLIGHT
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO AT LEAST MVFR THROUGH THE DAY.
FRIDAY EVENING WITH FROPA...WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT FROM THE
WESTERLY DIRECTION WITH FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE INTO KPSF WHERE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER MVFR CIGS A BIT LONGER.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TODAY DUE TO
EXPECTED WET AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AND MAINLY COOL WEATHER.
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...BRINGING RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A MILDER AIR MASS
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH MORE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY DRY AND BRISK CONDITIONS
OPEN THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. SUNNY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR
SUNDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BEFORE
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PERIODS OF RAIN...ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...WILL
OCCUR WITH THESE FEATURES TODAY.
RAINFALL AMTS OVERNIGHT GENERALLY RANGED FROM ONE QUARTER TO ONE
HALF INCH. ANOTHER ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY. THE LATEST MMEFS /ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE/
INDICATES RIVER LEVELS WILL RISE BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...WITH
SEVERAL POINTS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING ACTION STAGE. THE ONLY
POINT THAT MAY REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE IS GILBOA. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER RISES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN BANK RISES ARE POSSIBLE.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW
PASSING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE PRODUCING QPF OF
LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MAZ001-025.
VT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...FRUGIS/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...KL/BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
323 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING
MILDER TEMPS...BUT ONE LAST ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
DRY AND MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AREA OF RAIN ASSOCD WITH 850 MB WARM FRONT AND NOSE OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS SNE EARLY THIS MORNING. HRRR HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE RAIN AND MOVES IT OUT 10-14Z AS AREA OF MID LEVEL
DRYING MOVES IN. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY
WEATHER MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS MOVE IN LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING ASSOCD WITH THE COLD
FRONT WHICH MOVES INTO W NEW ENG BY EARLY EVENING. MODELS INDICATE
MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WHERE
LOW RISK FOR ISOLD TSTMS. IN FACT...SOME OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
GIVEN PWATS INCREASING TO 1.5" AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH IS +3 SD
ABOVE CLIMO.
SFC WARM FRONT STILL BACK ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND WILL PROBABLY TAKE
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON BEFORE IT MOVES THROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN
AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG PERSISTING TODAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL
THIS MORNING...BUT WILL SHOOT UP INTO THE 50S DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT LIFTS TO THE N.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS WILL SHIFT TO THE S COAST AND
CAPE/ISLANDS THIS EVENING WHERE LOW RISK FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.
OTHERWISE EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH WIND SHIFT TO WEST.
SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER OH VALLEY WITH DRY W/NW FLOW INTO NEW ENG.
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND COLD POOL MOVES INTO SNE WHICH WILL ACT ON
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEADING TO SCT-BKN CU DEVELOPING...BUT DRY
CONDITIONS. SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S...BUT
GUSTY WEST WINDS EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* PLEASANT WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPS THRU MIDWEEK
* CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS SOMETIME MONDAY OR TUESDAY
THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE TIMING OF A
COLD FRONT MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE
GFS WITH THE FRONT...BRINGING IT THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH ABOUT 12 HOURS LATER. THIS AFFECTS
THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
POTENTIALLY AVAILABLE FOR THUNDER.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRINGING DRY
WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC BRINGING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS STATED ABOVE...THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING
A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO
THE 60S TO NEAR 70.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING DRY...SEASONABLE WEATHER TO
THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THROUGH TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR IN
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AWAY FROM THE S
COAST. RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING MOVES OUT BY DAYBREAK FOLLOWED BY
A LULL IN PRECIP. SHOWERS REDEVELOP 18-21Z WEST AND 21-00Z EAST.
LOW RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS...MAINLY
NEAR S COAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. LLWS DEVELOPING AFT 21Z
CAPE/ISLANDS AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS.
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
MVFR/IFR IN THE EVENING...IMPROVING TO VFR 03-07Z AS WINDS SHIFT
TO W. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLD TSTM EXITS THE S COAST IN THE
EVENING.
SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. W WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT
DEVELOPING.
KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TONIGHT BUT
TIMING UNCERTAIN.
KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TONIGHT BUT
TIMING UNCERTAIN.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT -SHRA SOMETIME LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...INCREASING SW WINDS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. A FEW G25 KT
POSSIBLE BUT STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL PREVENT STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT FROM MIXING DOWN. AREAS OF FOG WILL REDUCE VSBYS.
RAIN ENDS BY MID MORNING...THEN SHOWERS REDEVELOP TOWARD EVENING.
TONIGHT...FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE EVENING WITH SW WINDS BECOMING
W. SPEEDS MOSTLY BELOW SCA BUT A FEW G25 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
EVENING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND AN ISOLD TSTM EXIT
AFTER FROPA. VSBY IMPROVES WITH THE WIND SHIFT.
SATURDAY...W/NW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT...ESPECIALLY NE MA COASTAL
WATERS. SCA WILL BE NEED TO BE EXTENDED.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEAS AND WINDS
DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. WESTERLY WINDS
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND
SEAS INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS. THEN
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND DIMINISH...ALONG WITH SEAS...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NECESSARY FOR A PERIOD.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-251-
254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
151 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT
WITH A PERIOD OF RAINFALL. THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF MOST
OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW...AS A MILDER
AIR MASS BRIEFLY BUILDS IN. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY DRY AND BRISK CONDITIONS OPEN THE
WEEKEND WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1130 PM EDT...MESONET OBS AND KALY 00Z/10 SOUNDING CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A SUBFREEZING LAYER MAINLY ABOVE 1200 FT AGL ACROSS
THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT. STEADIER PRECIP IS QUICKLY
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WE EXPECT A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THESE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS EASTERN BERKSHIRE
CO...EASTERN BENNINGTON AND CENTRAL/WESTERN WINDHAM COS FOR
SEVERAL HOURS OVERNIGHT. SOME ICE ACCRETIONS MAY REACH INTO THE
0.10-0.25 RANGE IN THESE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BEFORE TEMPS WARM TO
ABOVE FREEZING CLOSER TO DAYBREAK.
THEREFORE...A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SPECIFICALLY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1200 FT IN THESE
AREAS.
OTHERWISE...WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING HAS NOW SHIFTED EASTWARD INTO
NEW ENGLAND...AS A SHORT-WAVE IN THE WATER VAPOR LOOP CONTINUES TO
APPROACH FROM THE MIDWEST AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE
SFC...A WARM FRONT NOW EXTENDED INTO WESTERN PA....AND IS
CONTINUING TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST-NORTHEAST.
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A BATCH OF STEADY LIGHT RAIN MOVING FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO THE INITIAL PUSH OF WARM
ADVECTION. THIS RAIN IS JUST NOW REACHING THE HUDSON VALLEY...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. OUTSIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ADVISORY AREAS...TEMPS ARE
HOLDING STEADY IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. THESE LOOK TO BE THE LOW
TEMPS FOR THE NIGHT...AS TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
THE BETTER QG LIFT OR SYNOPTIC FORCING LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. BY LATE TONIGHT...A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER MAY
OCCUR OVER W-CNTRL NY AND MAY GET CLOSE TO THE WRN PERIPHERY OF
THE FCST AREA. THE NAM ACTUALLY BRINGS SHOWALTER VALUES DOWN TO 0
TO -2C BY 12Z. THE GFS IS MORE STABLE WITH THE LOWER SHOWALTER
STABILITY INDICIES WEST OF THE FCST AREA. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE IN THE TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH TO HALF AN INCH RANGE WITH
THE HIGHER TALLIES OVER THE SRN DACKS REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE WARM FRONT MAKES STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS THE FCST
AREA...WITH A MILDER AIR MASS BUILDING IN. SOME RAINFALL WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING THROUGH THE MORNING...AS THE S TO SW H850 LLJ OF
40-55 KTS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TURNS NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER SE ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WITH THE SFC CYCLONE MOVING TOWARDS SW QUEBEC.
CLOUDS WILL BE PREVALENT TOMORROW...BUT THE LOW AND MID LEVEL
WARMING WILL BE SIGNIFICANT WITH H850 TEMPS RISING INTO +9C TO
+12C RANGE. SFC DEWPTS WILL RISE INTO THE U30S TO 40S ACROSS THE
REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD
POTENTIAL TEMP GRADIENT WITH THE BOUNDARY...BUT THE ONE LACKING
INGREDIENT FOR ROBUST CONVECTION IS INSTABILITY. THE SHOWALTER
VALUES ARE CLOSE TO 0C. SPC DOES HAVE THE ENTIRE AREA IN GENERAL
THUNDER. WE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FCST
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING DUE TO THE
THERMAL GRADIENT AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT. POPS
WERE ALSO KEPT IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS ARE TRICKY BASED ON THE CLOUDS AND WE WENT CLOSE TO A BLEND
OF THE GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE VALUES. THE GFSMOS VALUES WERE WARMER
THAN THE COOLER METMOS NUMBERS. HIGHS IN THE WARM SECTOR COULD
REACH THE U50S TO L60S SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND
MAINLY MID AND U50S TO THE NORTH AND EAST WITH A FEW U40S TO L50S
IN THE SRN DACKS AREA.
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE FCST AREA EARLY IN
THE EVENING WITH FAIRLY STRONG COLD ADVECTION SETTLING IN. THE
GFS HAS H850 TEMPS FALLING BACK TO -4C TO -6C FROM THE TRI CITIES
NORTH AND WEST...AND -1C TO -4C SOUTH AND EAST. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY MAKE THE SKIES PARTLY
CLOUDY. A FEW UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE SRN DACKS
REGION...AND SRN VT EARLY ON...AND THEY WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW
SHOWERS WITH THE COLD ADVECTION KICKING IN. LOWS RANGE FROM THE
U20S TO M30S OVER THE ADIRONDACK PARK AND SRN GREENS...AND U30S TO
M40S SOUTH AND EAST WITH BRISK CONDITIONS.
SATURDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IMPACTS THE FCST AREA WITH PIECES
OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH. A SFC TROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY
WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS MAY OFFSET
THE COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S IN THE
VALLEYS...POSSIBLY A FEW L60S IN THE MID HID HUDSON VALLEY...AND
40S OVER THE MTNS. THE H850 WINDS WILL BE IN THE 30-40 KTS...AND
AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED SOME OF THE BUFKIT MOMENTUM
TRANSFER PROFILES HINT AT GOOD MIXING WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 35
KTS OR SO. EXPECT W TO NW WINDS OF 10-25 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS IN
THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE.
SATURDAY NIGHT...A WEAKENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT,,,AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE OH VALLEY AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND COLD CONDITIONS
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO L30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIODS STARTS OUT ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO OUR
REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY...SUNNY AND RELATIVELY WARM
WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS TOO MAKING FOR A PLEASANT SPRING DAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.
THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVES ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...
AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH CROSS THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL
HAVE FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY...SO WILL ONLY MENTION SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR NOW. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 60S WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AND SOME SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA...OTHERWISE DRYING CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY...PROVIDING
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND BREEZE NORTHWEST WINDS. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD BACK IN ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND
POSSIBLY LASTING INTO THURSDAY BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE. WILL
TAKE OUT ANY MENTION OF POPS DURING THIS TIME WITH DRY CONDITIONS
NOW EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COMBINATION OF MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT AS WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD WITH OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT
DISCUSSION...LLWS WILL BECOME AN ISSUE AS EVIDENT IN THE LATEST
VWP FROM THE RADAR AND HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION IN THE LATEST
FORECASTS OVERNIGHT.
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY...PER THE HRRR AND 4KM SPC WRF
REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS...SEEMS THERE WILL BE A REDUCTION IN PRECIP
COVERAGE AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. LATER IN THE DAY...COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH A CHC-SCT CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
FOR NOW...WE WILL PLACE A PROB30 AND MONITOR TRENDS. FLIGHT
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO AT LEAST MVFR THROUGH THE DAY.
FRIDAY EVENING WITH FROPA...WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT FROM THE
WESTERLY DIRECTION WITH FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE INTO KPSF WHERE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER MVFR CIGS A BIT LONGER.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 30.0 NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK
DUE TO EXPECTED WET AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AND MAINLY COOL
WEATHER.
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT
WITH A PERIOD OF RAINFALL. THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF MOST
OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW...AS A MILDER
AIR MASS BRIEFLY BUILDS IN. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY DRY AND BRISK CONDITIONS OPEN THE
WEEKEND WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK NORTH TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...RESULTING IN A WARMUP WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN
AND EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.
SNOW MELT IS LIKELY WITH THE QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH RAINFALL
TONIGHT. ANOTHER TENTH TO QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE LATEST MMEFS /ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE/ INDICATES RIVER LEVELS WILL RISE BY EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND...WITH SEVERAL POINTS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING ACTION STAGE.
THE ONLY POINT THAT MAY REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE IS GILBOA. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER RISES OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO. WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT
SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ARE POSSIBLE.
TOTAL QPF TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE THIRD OF AN INCH
TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH RANGE WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER
THE SRN DACKS REGION.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON SATURDAY. THE DRY WEATHER MAY
EXTEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FLOWS TO RECEDE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MAZ001-025.
VT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...FRUGIS/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
359 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...
323 AM CDT
THROUGH SATURDAY...
BEYOND THE STRONG WINDS TODAY...A QUIET PERIOD IS IN STORE AFTER
A BUSY THURSDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONTAL ZONE THAT
SUPPORTED THURSDAYS STORMS ARE LIFTING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
AHEAD OF A SFC HIGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
UPPER TROUGH IS OF COURSE TRAILING THE SFC LOW AND STILL CONTAINS
SOME DECENT SHORTWAVES AS SEEN UPSTREAM FROM THE LOCAL AREA...BOTH
IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IN THE AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS WI.
EVEN SOUTH INTO ILLINOIS...SOME POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
ON THE RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING MAY PERSIST AT TIMES THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS STRONGER SHORTWAVES IN THE UPPER TROUGH ADVECT
OVERHEAD...BUT LITTLE IF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TODAY.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT...CLEARING OUT ANY
CLOUDS THAT DO FORM TODAY AND DROPPING WINDS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THE LOWEST LOWS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
WEEK.
THE DAYTIME SATURDAY PERIOD ALSO WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE SFC HIGH
BUT THIS TIME WITH RIDGING ALOFT. LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE LIKELY
WILL SEE AFTERNOON COOLING AS THE LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPS...BUT IN
GENERAL SATURDAY IS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD FOR THOSE WHO ENJOY SUNNY
AND MILD SPRING DAYS.
LENNING
&&
.LONG TERM...
323 AM CDT
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
COOLER BUT GENERALLY MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WILL PERSIST
INTO THE LATE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE SFC
RIDGE THAT KEEPS THINGS QUIET TODAY AND SATURDAY WILL HAVE MOVED
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND ALLOWED GULF RETURN FLOW TO START
DEVELOPING. THE EFFECTS OF THIS BECOME MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL START A GRADUAL INCREASE
BEGINNING DURING THE DAYTIME PERIOD SUNDAY.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING THE INCREASED GULF MOISTURE
AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT LIKELY PRECIP AND
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS
THE FRONT MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA AND EXITS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY REPEAT THE PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE
SUPPRESSING ACTIVITY TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY MOVING EAST TO ALLOW
RETURN FLOW BY WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW THE CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY
LOOK OVERDONE...BUT WILL ELECT TO WAIT FOR MORE INFORMATION
BEFORE MAKING ANY CHANGES.
THE MORE PRONOUNCED RETURN FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED BY NEXT
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AT LEAST
ACCORDING TO THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF.
LENNING
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT.
* GUSTY WINDS BCMG SW TO W ARND MIDNIGHT WITH MAX GUSTS AROUND 40
KT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25-27 KT LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
GUSTY W WINDS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
MAIN NEAR TERM CONCERN IS GUSTY SW WINDS. EXPECT A PERIOD OF
SUSTAINED WINDS 25-30 KT AND GUSTS TO 40 KT OR SO THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS...DIMINISHING SOME BUT REMAINING GUSTY OUT OF
THE WEST FRIDAY.
EXPECT MVFR CIGS LOWERING LATE TONIGHT BUT LARGELY REMAINING ABOVE
IFR...THEN LIFTING IS EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING BUT CONTINUED GUSTY
WINDS. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND HAVE THUS MAINTAINED ONLY A VCSH AT KRFD.
KMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS TONIGHT...MEDIUM ON SPECIFIC
HEIGHTS.
* MEDIUM/HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND GUSTS OVERNIGHT AND
TOMORROW...THOUGH LOWER/MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFIC SPEEDS ON
FRIDAY.
KMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
00Z...
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS. LAKE BREEZE POSSIBLE.
* SUNDAY...DRY/VFR. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS.
* MONDAY...DRY/VFR. EAST WINDS.
* TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. SOUTH WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. SOUTH WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
323 AM CDT
STRONG AND GUSTY WEST GALES IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT
MOVED ACROSS THE LAKE LATE ON THURSDAY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND
TURN NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE FLIPPING BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS GENERALLY SOUTHERN FLOW
PERSISTS UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE AND TURNS THINGS NORTHWEST AGAIN.
THIS WEST TO NORTHWEST TO SOUTH PATTERN REPEATS ITSELF MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
THURSDAY. OVERALL MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH THE FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT COULD SUPPORT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LENNING
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-
ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 4 AM FRIDAY.
IN...WIND ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 4 AM
FRIDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779 UNTIL 1 PM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
305 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
Much cooler and less humid conditions are expected across central
and southeast Illinois today in the wake of Thursday evening`s cold
front. While high temperatures should average at least 15 degrees
cooler than yesterday, they will still be near normal levels for
early April. Breezy westerly winds will persist for much of the day,
with a gradual decrease in speed toward evening as high pressure
begins to build into the area.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
Quiet start to the weekend on tap as high pressure drifts through
the Midwest. After that, focus shifts to a shortwave traveling along
the U.S./Canadian border. Some timing differences amongst the
evening models on the speed of this system, with the ECMWF and
Canadian models lagging several hours behind the U.S. counterparts.
However, enough agreement exists to bump up PoP`s to around 60%
Sunday night in many areas.
The discrepancies widen on Monday, as a small closed low traverses
the southwest U.S. border and emerges into northwest Texas. The
progress of our cold front will be slowed as low pressure develops
along the tail end of the front over the southern Plains, with only
the GFS progressive enough to get the any lingering rain out of the
CWA before Monday afternoon. Thus, have lingered rain chances across
the southeast third of the CWA into much of Monday.
Have dropped rain chances for Tuesday, as upper ridging drifts
through the central U.S., and scaled back quite a bit for Tuesday
night as well, although this may not be far enough. Some moisture
return on Wednesday may be enough for some light showers, as the
remnants of the Texas closed low nudge toward the mid-Mississippi
Valley.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
Gusty westerly winds will persist across the central Illinois
terminals through 00z Saturday in the wake of the cold front that
passed through the area Thursday evening. A period of wrap around
MVFR cigs are expected over the next few hours behind the cold
front, but VFR conditions are expected otherwise.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Bak
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1235 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
Vigorous shortwave and jet streak are pushing a cold front rapidly
across IL. They have triggered strong to severe storms with
isolated tornadoes this afternoon/evening. Remaining storms seem
to be evolving into more outflow dominated storms, but will
continue to monitor for any localized rotations the next couple
hours. Storms and cold front are projected to be east of our IL
counties by 11 pm, with strong west-southwest winds in their wake.
Sustained winds behind the front will increase to 20 mph and
gust to 35 mph at times. A brief period of clearing skies may
follow the front for an hour or so, but low clouds will return for
6-8 hours the rest of the night. Clear skies will return from west
to east around sunrise tomorrow, with gusty winds continuing.
Low temps will drop about 20 degrees colder than last night, with
readings in the mid to upper 40s toward sunrise. Likewise, highs
on Friday will be around 15-18F colder than today, but still in
the low 60s.
Updated the weather and PoP forecasts to match expected trends,
with minor adjustments to clouds cover timing. Updated info will
be available by 9 pm.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
19z/2pm surface analysis shows 998mb low centered over southeast
Iowa, with cold front trailing southward into western Missouri.
Line of convection is rapidly developing along the front within the
moderately unstable and uncapped airmass in the warm sector. 0-6km
bulk shear values will be on the increase as the afternoon
progresses as a mid-level short-wave approaches from the west,
resulting in continued convective intensification. HRRR has had a
good handle on the situation throughout the day, with its latest
iteration agreeing closely with prior runs. Based on satellite
timing tools and HRRR guidance, it appears the line of storms will
cross the Mississippi River by 23z/6pm, then will track through the
Illinois River Valley and to the I-55 corridor by about 02z/8pm.
Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat, but large hail and a
few tornadoes will be possible as well. As the storms move further
east, they will likely congeal into a solid line and the tornado
threat will diminish accordingly. Once the front passes, windy and
cooler weather will be on tap overnight with a slow west to east
clearing trend by dawn.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
Morning upper air shows a potential severe event this afternoon and
evening, as main upper level shortwave and vort max over southwest
NE at 12z will be rotating to the east. Low level thermal ridge and
moisture axis extends into MO/IL ahead of the approaching front.
low level jet is particularly strong flowing into MO/western IL and
so ample shear available in warm sector.
HRRR model and NAM a little slower on the movement of the front
through the region, going through this evening. Shear with strong
upper jet and low level southern jet will make severe potential with
severe storms possible on the cold front as it sweeps through.
Deepening surface low to move northeast into eastern IA and then
southern WI.
High pressure in control until weak front moves in and brings
showers on late Sunday and Sunday night. Another chance off showers
Tuesday into Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
Gusty westerly winds will persist across the central Illinois
terminals through 00z Saturday in the wake of the cold front that
passed through the area Thursday evening. A period of wrap around
MVFR cigs are expected over the next few hours behind the cold
front, but VFR conditions are expected otherwise.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Bak
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
136 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY BEHIND A STRONG COLD
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
PROVIDING LIGHTER WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES TODAY
INTO SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND
LOWS IN THE 30S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
18Z RAOB OUT OF KILX INDICATES CURRENT CONV PROB ATTM W/CAPPING
INVERSION ARND H85 AND NO DOUBT EXACERBATED BY SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCD/W SW TROUGH OVERHEAD. EXTENT/DURATION OF POPS THIS EVENING
AHD OF STG CDFNT SWEEPING EWD OUT OF WRN IL PROBLEMATIC IN LIGHT
OF LIMITED UPSTREAM DVLPMNT SO FAR AND LACK OF LARGER SCALE
ORGANIZATION. LATEST NR TERM AND 18Z GUIDANCE TEPID AT BEST AND
SUGGESTIVE OF TEMPERING PRIOR CAT MENTION. REGARDLESS COOLING
ALOFT SPREAD EWD OVERTOP FNTL ZONE IN TANDEM W/RAMPING LLJ SHLD
PREDICATE MORE ERSTWHILE DVLPMNT THOUGH MID EVENING AS CONVN
SLIDES EWD INTO WRN ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
MULTIPLE CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO RIPPLE THROUGH
THE REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF MAIN TROUGH AXIS STILL WELL TO
OUR WEST. THIS HAS LED TO A MUDDLED MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF WEAK/ELEVATED CONVECTION SO FAR TODAY. DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION HAS BEEN SLOW GIVEN ABUNDANT RAIN AND STRATUS.
STARTED TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING THE LAST COUPLE
HOURS BUT STILL A LOT OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TO INHIBIT SURFACE
DIABATIC HEATING. LATEST RAP/SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS BETTER SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY JUST NOW STARTING TO NOSE INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN
CWA AS WARM FRONT IS PUSHED NORTHWARD BY STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW BUT RAP SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A
SUBTLE 700-800MB INVERSION OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON. TWO FEATURES TO WATCH FOR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS
EVENING...ONE IS A SUBTLE PREFRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY PUSHING
THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SECOND IS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT
ITSELF...STILL IN CENTRAL MISSOURI. FORCING IS WEAK WITH THE FIRST
WAVE BUT APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TO GENERATE AROUND
1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE OVER ILLINOIS. THERE IS HOWEVER A LOCAL MINIMUM
OF INSTABILITY SEEN ON RAP/SPC MESOANALYSIS OVER WESTERN INDIANA.
RAP SUGGESTS INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA WILL FILL IN OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND IF THE CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS CAN LATCH
ONTO THAT...IT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER IN OUR
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING IS LOW
THOUGH...GIVEN NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF STORMS CURRENTLY ON RADAR
AND RELATIVELY DIFFUSE FORCING. STORMS MAY CLIP OUR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES BUT DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE LEFT BY
THAT POINT. SPC HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH RIGHT UP TO OUR WESTERN
BORDER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLUSTER OF STORMS UPSTREAM DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO SEE IF A LOCAL EXTENSION MAY BE NECESSARY BUT
FOR NOW THREAT APPEARS LOW. POTENTIAL THREAT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
FALL IN THE 22-00Z TIMEFRAME WITH THE MAIN HAZARD BEING DAMAGING
WINDS.
SECOND FEATURE TO WATCH IS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT. THIS FEATURE WILL
NOT ARRIVE UNTIL 03-04Z TONIGHT AND BY THEN WE LOSE ANY SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MODEST...AROUND 7
C/KM...BUT NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. SOME DAMAGING WINDS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN
VERY STRONG LLJ WITH 850MB WINDS OVER 50 KTS BUT WILL BE CONTINGENT
UPON GETTING A SUSTAINED UPDRAFT AND ADEQUATE PRECIP LOADING. THAT
IS QUESTIONABLE AT THIS POINT. THREAT IS CERTAINLY THERE BUT IS
CONDITIONAL ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY IS LEFT BY THE TIME IT REACHES
US. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR UPSTREAM TRENDS CLOSELY THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO UPDATE THE FORECAST AS NECESSARY.
UPDATED GRIDS/ZFP WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE HIGH WINDS ON FRIDAY...
THE SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ACTIVE WEATHER TODAY
WILL HAVE MADE ITS WAY INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS PUTS THE CWA LARGELY IN THE DRY SLOT AND IN THE REGION
OF CAA. ALOFT...A CLOSED 500MB LOW LIFTS FROM UPPER MICHIGAN FRIDAY
MORNING TO JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH A STRONG
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND STATES...A 100 KT 500MB
JET DEVELOPS OVER THE CWA AND REMAINS THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS...IT APPEARS WE WILL BE MIXING
TO NEAR 900MB EARLIER IN THE DAY...THEN UP AS HIGH AS 700-750MB BY
MID AFTERNOON. THINKING GUSTS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON
THEN TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM AND SFC
PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. THINKING GUSTS TO
35-45 MPH ARE LIKELY GIVEN MIXING POTENTIAL TOMORROW...BUT WILL HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING ANY WIND ADVISORIES FOR NOW...AS WE ARE RIGHT BELOW
CRITERIA AND DO NOT WANT TO DETRACT PUBLIC ATTENTION AWAY FROM THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. KEPT THE GOING
HEADLINE FOR THE GALE WARNING UNTIL 15Z...AS CONDITIONS ARE MORE
STABLE OVER THE LAKE.
OTHERWISE...SHORTWAVE/PV ANOMALY ROTATING AROUND THE EXITING LOW
PRESSURE MAY BRING ADDITIONAL LL MOISTURE FORCING FOR RAIN SHOWERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
CWA. MODELS WERE IN GREAT DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE
WAVE...SO FOR NOW KEPT JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS/RAIN SHOWERS FOR NOW.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVERHEAD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL...WITH
HIGHS AGAIN STRUGGLING TO REACH ABOVE THE LOW 60S.
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...500MB FLOW IS SOMEWHAT SPLIT BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
UPPER MI/NORTHERN LOWER MI THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN A DEVELOPING
CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. TAKES SHAPE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUE AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER OUR CWA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE
LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TUE NIGHT INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL
PLAINS BEFORE PHASING INTO THE NORTHERN BRANCH WED.
FOR OUR CWA...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IN
ONTARIO/UPPER MI. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS BRING THE FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THOUGH THEY DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO EXACT
TIMING AND STRENGTH. AS USUAL...THE GFS IS FASTER AND SLIGHTLY
DEEPER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH...AND THUS THE
FRONT IS MORE ORGANIZED. THE ECMWF SHOWS A WEAKER UL TROUGH AND
CORRESPONDING SFC SYSTEM/COLD FRONT. KEPT CONSENSUS POPS FOR
NOW...WHICH DID A DECENT JOB SHOWING THE OVERALL TREND. TUESDAY
LOOKS TO REMAIN LARGELY QUIET...WITH SMALL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.
OF COURSE...THE PHASING SYSTEMS/STREAMS ARE A COMPLETE MESS IN THE
MODEL WORLD...WITH A WHOLE HOST OF SOLUTIONS THAT COULD PLAY OUT
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. JUST KEPT THE CONSENSUS POPS AND OUR
FORECASTED THUNDER AS THERE IS TOO MUCH DISAGREEMENT TO MAKE ANY
REAL IMPROVEMENTS. GOOD NEWS IS...TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S AND
LOW 70S FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
STRONG POST FRONTAL LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION/PRESSURE RISES WILL
SUPPORT A RATHER WINDY DAY AT THE TERMINALS. RETAINED VTCS WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH 07Z AT KSBN AND 08-09Z AT KFWA.
DRY/MAINLY VFR OTHERWISE OUTSIDE OF A PERIOD OF HIGH MVFR STRATOCU
THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...T
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
206 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
FINE TUNED THE POPS AND TEMPERATURES ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
TRENDS IN RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS. OVERALL...THERE IS A SLOWER
TREND TO THE WIDEPREAD CONVECTION. CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY
WARMING OFF TO THE WEST...HOWEVER A STRONG 850 MB JET OF 50 TO 55
KTS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH DAWN...SO WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITHIN EVEN MODERATE TO STRONG
STORMS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1033 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
JUST SENT OUT ONE LAST UPDATE TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING.
UPSTREAM RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING THE NEAREST THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
AREA CURRENTLY MOVING INTO FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWESTERN
INDIANA. BASED ON THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THE
INDIVIDUAL STORMS...AND THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE LINE AS THE
WHOLE...IT APPEARS THAT IT MAY BE EVEN LATER BEFORE WE SEE THE
FIRST STORMS MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. AS IT
STANDS...PRECIP ONSET IS FORECAST TO OCCUR BETWEEN 6 AND 7Z IN OUR
FAR NORTHWEST AND WESTERN COUNTIES...WITH THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 9 AND 16Z ON FRIDAY. DAMAGING WINDS
GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY FLASH
FLOODING WILL REMAIN THREATS WITH THE LINE OF STORMS AS THEY TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. A NEW SET OF ZONES HAS ALREADY BEEN
ISSUED BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED GRID UPDATES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 813 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
ANOTHER UPDATE TO THE FORECAST GRIDS AND THE ZONE FORECAST TEXT
PRODUCT WERE NECESSARY THIS EVENING. BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE
AND RADAR TRENDS...IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION ONSET ACROSS THE
AREA WILL OCCUR A FEW HOURS LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. OVER
THE PAST HOUR OR SO THERE HAVE BEEN NO SHOWERS OR STORMS PRESENT
ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. BASED ON
UPSTREAM RADAR RETURNS...IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE MUCH LATER
TONIGHT BEFORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA.
THEREFORE...BOTH THE FORECAST GRIDS AND ZONES WERE UPDATED TO
REFLECT THIS NEW TREND. THE SAME ISSUES WITH THE STORMS WILL HOLD
TRUE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ALL STILL POSSIBLE. A LINE OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS NOW EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 8 AND 13Z ON FRIDAY. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
STILL IN EFFECT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
JUST UPDATED THE GRIDS...ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT...AND
HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCT TO ALL REFLECT THE CANCELLATION OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 40. WITH ONLY A FEW MEAGER THUNDERSTORMS
HAVING MOVED ACROSS THE AREA SO FAR THIS EVENING...AND WITH NO NEW
STORMS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA ANY TIME SOON...THE WATCH WAS
CANCELLED. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS STILL IN EFFECT. THE GRIDS
WERE ALSO FRESHENED UP A BIT USING THE LATEST OBS DATA ACROSS THE
BOARD. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CURRENT CONDITIONS TO DETERMINE
WHEN TO ISSUE THE NEXT FORECAST UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM WITH EASTERN
KENTUCKY REMAINING UNDER BROAD SW FLOW TODAY BEFORE AN UL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO OUR
NORTH...HELPING TO FOCUS SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE CONVECTION SO
FAR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH BEST
CHANCES ALONG THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE A SPC SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. AND AS THE UL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL HEIGHT FALLS AND UL
ENERGY...THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE.
HIGH RES MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND NAM12 BOTH INDICATE A
LULL IN CONVECTION TONIGHT AFTER THE DIURNAL CONVECTION WANES
AND BEFORE THE COLD FRONT REACHES OUR AREA. AS SUCH...HAVE
INDICATED A DECREASE IN SHOWERS/CONVECTION DURING THAT TIME IN
THE POP/SKY/WX GRIDS. BY THE TIME THE COLD FRONT REACHES KY AROUND
06Z...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NUMEROUS AND WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE STATE. PER LATEST MODEL OUTPUT AND
SOUNDINGS...A CONVECTIVE LINE COULD DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A THREAT OF HIGH WINDS
AND HEAVY RAIN. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE CONVECTION FORMS WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATER TONIGHT...BUT IT IS LIKELY THAT THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. THERE WONT BE THE
ADDED BENEFIT OF DAYTIME HEATING BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MID TO
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION TO SUSTAIN ITSELF. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD THEN EXIT EASTERN KY BY 18Z...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY
COOLER...DRIER AIR AND N TO NW FLOW.
THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY CUT OFF ANY
REMAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND DRY THE AIR...DECREASING
HUMIDITY LEVELS SUBSTANTIALLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES
TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL VALUES...IN THE MID 60S...ON SATURDAY
AS A HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVERHEAD. THIS IS A BIG CHANGE FROM
TODAY/S TEMPERATURES WHICH HAVE SURPASSED THE 80 DEGREE MARK
FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WHICH SHOULD LAST INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. BY THEN THE HIGH WILL BE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST...AND
MODELS SHOW GULF MOISTURE TRYING TO MAKE A RETURN TO THE NORTH AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NW. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THIS
FRONT WILL BRING A QUICK CHANCE AT SOME SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE 12Z RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW
SUGGEST MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO OUR NORTH...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH AND KEEPS MOISTURE AT BAY.
HOWEVER...WITH THIS BEING A RECENT CHANGE...HAVE ONLY TRENDED THE
POP LOWER INSTEAD OF REMOVING PRECIP FROM THE FORECAST. 12Z RUNS
SHOW A RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY AND HAVE CONTINUED CHANCE POPS
FOR SHOWERS AT THAT TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
CEILINGS WILL BE LOWERING THROUGH DAWN AS A COLD FRONT AND LINE OF
CONVECTION APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE STRONGER AND MORE
WIDEPSREAD CONVECTION LOOKS TO AFFECT EASTERN KENTUCKY BETWEEN 09
AND 13Z...BEFORE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE MID AND LATE MORNING FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 7 TO 15 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS WILL
VEER TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. CEILINGS
WILL DROP DOWN TO MVFR AT TIMES WITHIN THE STORMS...WITH EVEN SOME
TEMPORARY IFR POSSIBLE. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1133 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 10/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS TO NORTHEAST TEXAS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...REACHING AND MOVING
THROUGH KAEX NEAR 10/12Z...THEN REACHING AND STALLING AT KBPT/KLCH
AROUND 10/14-15Z...AND KLFT/KARA 10/16-17Z. STILL EXPECTING LOW
CLOUDS WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP
BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES. AS THE FRONT ARRIVES...A FEW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT...THEN A BAND OF SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG AND
BEHIND IT. AGAIN MVFR/IFR TYPE CEILINGS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN REDUCING
VISIBILITY IN THUNDERSTORMS...THAT SHOULD LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
RUA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015/
UPDATE...
A BKN BAND OF STRONG TO SVR STORMS CONTINUES TO MARCH EAST ACRS
NRN LA THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A SECOND BAND OF
TSTMS HAS FORMED ALONG THE FRONT...EXTENDING FM HOT SPRINGS ARK
TO TERRELL TX. THE FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO REACH OUR NWRN ZONES
LATE TONIGHT BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM. THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH
ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO GRIDS TONIGHT...MAINLY TO BRING IN LINE WITH
RECENT OBS AND TRENDS. ADJUSTED THE POP/WX GRIDS FOR THE EVENING.
INCORPORATED A BLEND OF RECENT HRRR RUNS...WHICH GENERALLY
LOWERED POPS FOR THE EVENING. ACTIVITY HAS STAYED NORTH OF THE CWA
SO FAR...BUT EXPECT IT WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE NRN TIER OF
PARISHES AND COUNTIES TOWARD MIDNIGHT WITH CHCS INCREASING
THEREAFTER. OTHERWISE...FCST SEEMS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.
24
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015/
DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATING APPROACHING NE-SW
ORIENTED COLD FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THROUGH
CENTRAL TEXAS. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS NOW DEVELOPING
ALONG BOUNDARY...WITH MORE ROBUST CONVECTION DEVELOPING PRE-
FRONTAL FROM SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR AUSTIN.
OTHER THAN THAT...LOCAL AREA REMAINS CLEAR OF ANY PRECIP. CLOUDS
WERE ABUNDANT TODAY BUT NONE-THE-LESS...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
AGAIN INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THE NORM.
WET WEATHER PATTERN INCOMING.
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO ADVANCE RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST
TO ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR AEX TO BPT TOWARD SUNRISE...THEN SLOWING
AND STALLING MOVING INTO THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. FRONT THEN
EXPECTED TO RETREAT RAPIDLY NORTH SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH FRONT...ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF
FRONT ALONG WITH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH ON A
STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST ALOFT....WARRANTS HIGH END RAIN CHANCES
BEGINNING FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SPC HAS PLACED THE
FORECAST AREA WITHIN A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
FOR FRIDAY. GOING INTO THE NEW WORK-WEEK...DEEP GULF/PACIFIC MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY PER THE ECMWF AND GFS.
THUS RESPECTABLE POPS CONTINUING.
MARINE...LIGHT SOUTHERLIES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...BECOMING MORE
EASTERLY FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO THE NEAR COASTAL
WATERS AND STALLS. WITH THIS FRONT WILL COME A CHANCE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL THEN LIFT NORTH AS WARM FRONT SUNDAY
WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA WILL THEN KEEP A DAILY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH MID-WEEK.
23
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 69 77 61 77 / 40 70 30 50
LCH 71 80 65 78 / 20 70 40 60
LFT 71 82 65 78 / 10 70 40 60
BPT 71 80 66 78 / 20 70 40 60
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
602 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
BECOMING ALL RAIN BY AFTERNOON AS WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6 AM UPDATE...FIRST ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS CROSSING THE
REGION ATTM. ONCE THIS GOES BY, WE`LL SEE A BIT OF A BREAK, THEN
ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY RAIN TO FOLLOW THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH. THE LATEST NAM WAS HANDLING THIS WELL AND
MATCHED CLOSELY THE RUC AND THE HRRR. THEREFORE USED THE NAM TO
ADJUST POPS AND THE PRECIP TYPE FOR TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY AT OR BELOW FREEZING AT MANY LOCATIONS AT THIS HOUR, SO
STILL EXPECT A SLIPPERY COMMUTE FOR JUST ABOUT EVERYONE THIS
MORNING. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THEREFORE REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...RADAR ECHOES BLOSSOMING ACRS WRN MAINE AND
SPREADING INTO CWA AS OF 06Z. AIRMASS IS VRY SLOWLY SATURATING AND
EXPECT PRECIP TO BEGIN BY 09Z AT BANGOR AND 10-11Z ELSEWHERE.
TRICKY FCST AS TO HOW PCPN WL EVOLVE DRG THE OVRNGT HRS. VWP FROM
GYX RADAR INDICATING SERLY WINDS 15-20KTS JUST OFF THE SFC DRAWING
IN WM AIR. SFC TEMPS RANGE FM M20S OVR CNTRL ZONES TO L/M 30S OVR
INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND COASTAL AREAS. WITH DRY DWPTS STILL IN PLACE
COURTESY OF SFC RIDGE AXIS EXPECT PCPN TO WET BULB DOWN AND START
OFF AS SNOW ACRS NRN SXNS IN THE NEXT SVRL HRS.
WHAT LITTLE SNOW THERE IS WL QUICKLY MIX WITH SLEET AND FRZG RAIN
BEFORE BCMG ALL RAIN BY 17Z THIS AFTN IN THE CROWN OF MAINE.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WARM AIR WL RAPIDLY ENCROACH INTO AREA WITH
INTERIOR DOWNEAST BCMG RAIN BY 12Z AND COASTAL SXNS STARTING OFF
AS RAIN. EXPECT LOW-LVL MOISTURE TO BE PRESENT BTWN FRONTAL BNDRY
DRG THE AFTN/EVNG HRS. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR NORTH WMFNT
CAN ACCELERATE ACRS THE MTNS THIS AFTN AS 00Z GFS INDICATING IT
GETS HUNG UP ACRS SRN NEW ENGLAND 18Z TDA WITH NAM BRINGING IT
INTO NRN AREAS BY THIS TIME. EITHER WAY, WITH SFC TEMPS ABV FRZG
AT THIS TIME AND H8 TEMPS SURGING TO > +4C FOR ALL AREAS EXPECT
ALL RAIN BY THIS TIME. CWA WL LKLY SEE FOG TONIGHT WITH MELTING
SNOW AND MINIMAL DWPT DEPRESSION AS OCCLUDED FRONT TAKES ITS SWEET
TIME WORKING THRU. FRONT WL EVENTUALLY MV THRU AFT 06Z WITH WINDS
GOING WEST AND BRINGING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR, POSSIBLY ENUF TO
SCOUR OUT FOG.
WL CONTINUE WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR GLAZE OF ICE ACROSS MOST AREAS
WITH BIGGEST QUESTION MARK CENTERING ON COASTAL AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY,
BRINGING THE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
THESE WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MORNING, AND ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW
WILL OCCUR IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH MAINE WOODS. EVEN
THERE, SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE MINIMAL. SATURDAY`S HIGHS WILL BE
MILD, RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 50 DOWNEAST.
BUFKIT PROFILES INDICATE THERE WILL BE DEEP MIXING ON SATURDAY,
WHICH WILL LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON; WEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE LIKELY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT TO
KEEP SKIES AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS WITH
CONTINUING WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING,
LEADING TO A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30
IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S DOWNEAST. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY, WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW SPRINKLES
OVER THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
WARMER THAN THOSE ON SATURDAY; HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PARTS OF OUR AREA AND THE LOWER
50S DOWNEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA`S WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. HOWEVER, IT WILL GIVE WAY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE HUDSON BAY BRINGS A COLD FRONT TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL OVERNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT MAINLY
RAIN WITH THIS FRONT, ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN LATE MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH MAINE WOODS. LINGERING
WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTH AND WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH ON
WEDNESDAY, AND WHILE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY AS A RESULT, A
FAST-MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OVER FAR
NORTHERN MAINE. OTHERWISE, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY MILD THROUGH
THE EXTENDED, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND EVEN APPROACHING 60 FOR
INTERIOR DOWNEAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S MOST NIGHTS,
THOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT SOME 20S ACROSS THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR AT NRN TERMINALS WITH MVFR AT BGR AND BHB EARLY ON.
MIXED PRECIPITATION MOVES IN WITH -SN AT FVE, CAR, PQI AND HUL
BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z-14Z BEFORE MIXING WITH -FZRAPL. IFR EXPECTED
THRU END OF TAF VALID TIME IN FOG AND/OR DRIZZLE AT ALL SITES.
BHB WILL LIKELY SEE -RA THRU 22Z TDA WITH BGR BECOMING RAIN AFTER
12Z. SOUTHERN TERMINALS MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY LLWS THRU
17Z.
SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ON SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS AS A FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION. THIS WILL PRODUCE CEILINGS AOB 3000 FT AS WELL AS
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS, AGAIN, MAINLY IN THE NORTH. WINDS
WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BECOME VFR AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ARRIVES WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WL CONTINUE SCA INTO TONIGHT AS SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 5KT.
WIND GUSTS REMAIN LOW DUE TO STABLE AIRMASS OVER WATERS.
SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
SATURDAY AS WINDS AND WAVES WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO A FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THEREAFTER, CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY QUIESCENT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE TOTAL QPF FROM THIS UPCOMING EVENT STILL LOOKS TO BE
AROUND 0.50" FOR MOST OF THE HSA W/A COMBO OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
THIS MORNING CHANGING TO RAIN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE SNOWPACK INITIALLY WILL BE ABLE TO ABSORB THE LIQUID. WARMER
TEMPERATURES LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO FURTHER
EROSION OF THE SNOWPACK AND RUNOFF. THEREFORE, RISES ON STREAMS
AND RIVERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH ICE MOVEMENT.
THE BIGGER CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE EXPECTED WARMUP FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK THAT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES TOWARD 60 DEGREES IN MANY
AREAS. IN ADDITION, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS. BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORABLE IN THAT THEY RESULT IN A "PAUSE" IN RUNOFF AND SLOW
RIVER RISES. WITH THE LONG STRETCH OF MILD AND ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES, SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT AND RUNOFF WILL CAUSE WATER
LEVELS TO RISE ON AREA WATERWAYS AND COULD CAUSE ICE TO MOVE AND
POTENTIALLY JAM. THIS COULD LEAD TO ICE JAM FLOODING. OUR MORE
CENTRAL RIVERS, INCLUDING THE PENOBSCOT AND PISCATAQUIS AND THEIR
TRIBUTARIES, HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ICE MOVEMENT EARLY
NEXT WEEK. FURTHER NORTH, ALONG THE ST JOHN AND AROOSTOOK RIVERS, THE
ICE IS STRONGER AND OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO
FREEZING, WHICH COULD DELAY POTENTIAL BREAKUP UNTIL LATE IN THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO INDICATE A
POTENTIAL HEAVIER RAIN EVENT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MEZ001>006-010-031.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
MEZ011-015>017-032.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ029-
030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050-
051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FARRAR/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...FARRAR/HASTINGS/HASTINGS
MARINE...FARRAR/HASTINGS/HASTINGS
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
349 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH PULLED THE ACTIVE WARM FRONT UP
THROUGH SE MI LATE THURSDAY IS NOW LOCATED OVER NORTHERN LOWER MI.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NE THROUGH THE DAY. LINGERING
CONVECTION OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB SHOULD LIFT OUT OF THE
AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS AREA HAS SPLIT FROM THE COLD
FRONTAL CONVECTION LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH OVER IN/OH...WHICH HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED BY THE HRRR FOR THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO POP UP IN THE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS BUT NOT MORE THAN
A CHANCE POP FOR ANY LOCATION.
AS THE CONVECTION BEGINS TO WANE...ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD WINDS.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT HAS BEEN ABLE TO GUST UP TO
25 KNOTS OVER SW LOWER MI. THIS WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE STATE OVER US
PRIOR TO 09Z. WINDS WILL VEER TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND
INCREASE FURTHER AS THE TIGHT E/W PRESSURE GRADIENT LIFTS UP INTO SE
MI. THESE POST FRONTAL WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING TO AROUND 35 KNOTS
THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS IA/IL/MO WITH AN INITIAL POP RIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT CLOSER TO 40 KNOTS. MODELS SHOW THIS TREND CONTINUING
ACROSS SOUTHERN MI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL DIURNAL
SUPPORT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP MIXED LAYER DEVELOPING BEHIND
THE FRONT UP TO AROUND 850MB WITH STEEP LL LAPSE RATES DUE TO
IMPRESSIVE CAA BETWEEN THE SFC AND 700MB. IN THIS MIXED
LAYER...MODELS ARE SHOWING WINDS OF AROUND 50 KNOTS AS LOW AS 925MB
IN THE COLUMN PEAKING FROM 09-14Z BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING. THIS
SHOULD PRODUCE WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS AROUND 40-50 MPH AT THE SFC
THUS THE WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE DOES
REMAIN THE CHANCE OF HIGHER GUSTS REACHING THE SFC...ESPECIALLY IF A
FEW SHALLOW CONVECTIVE CELLS CAN DEVELOP AS THE LINGERING TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. AT THIS POINT WILL HOLD WITH THE ADVISORY AND ALLOW
THE NEXT SHIFT TO ASSESS TRENDS HEADING INTO THE DIURNAL CYCLE. A
SHORT FUSE HIGH WIND WARNING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SLOWLY
WANING TOWARD THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING A COMPACT
VORT MAX DIVING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING TROUGH AND TRACKING
ACROSS THE MI/OH BORDER BETWEEN ABOUT 00-06Z SATURDAY. ADDED A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THIS PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE.
&&
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SE MI WILL BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THE COURSE OF THE
WEEKEND...ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE FCST TO BUILD FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SUPPORT A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CORE OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WILL
PUSH OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY BUT WILL STILL SUPPORT
DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S. LOW LEVEL WARMING WILL GET A BOOST ON
SUNDAY UNDER STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS. THIS AND
DECENT MIXING DEPTHS SUGGEST DAYTIME HIGHS ON SUN WILL RISE WELL
INTO THE 60S.
A FAST MOVING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO EJECT OUT OF THE
GULF OF ALASKA UPPER LOW AND TRACK ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE LATEST
GFS AND ECMWF IN BRINGING THE ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT ACROSS SE MI MON
MORNING. THE BETTER LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS ARE SHOWN TO PASS ACROSS
THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION. FORECAST AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID LEVEL
WAVE AS IT ROTATES INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WILL HOWEVER OFFER AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR INCREASED LOW LEVEL SW FLOW TO ADVECT A PLUME OF
DEEP MOISTURE INTO LOWER MI ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT. THIS WILL
REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON
MORNING.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT. DAYTIME HEATING AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL HOWEVER BOOST
MIXING DEPTHS AND SHOULD REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS INTO THE 60S
BOTH MON AND TUES. REBOUNDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION
AND DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE OF
MID APRIL SEASONAL NORMS DURING THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE AREAS TODAY. A DEEP
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON THIS
MORNING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS SYSTEM IS NOW DRIVING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. OBSERVATIONS ON THE COLD SIDE OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE IN
STRONG SUPPORT OF WIDESPREAD GALES. GALES WILL STEADILY DIMINISH
TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH WILL INFLUENCE THE REGION
DURING THE WEEKEND AND WILL SUSTAIN LIGHT WINDS ON SATURDAY. DESPITE
A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WIND ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH DEPARTS TO THE
MID ATLANTIC...STRONG STABILITY OVER THE COLD LAKES WILL KEEP WIND
SPEEDS BELOW 20 KNOTS.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 125 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
COMPLEX FORECAST WITH A COLD FRONT BRINGING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN...FOLLOWED BY STRONG
GUSTY WINDS. THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
HAS BEEN WEAKENING DURING THE TREK EAST BUT NEW DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS COMING NORTH FROM INDIANA WILL WARRANT A TEMPO FOR SHOWERS
FOR THE DETROIT TAFS AND PTK. MBS WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH STORMS
AND FNT IS ON THE BUBBLE REGARDING THE LINE OF STORM AS THEY MAY
WEAKEN TO SHOWERS BY THE TIME THEY APPROACH THE TAF SITE. ONCE THE
COLD FRONT PASSES EARLY THIS MORNING THE WINDS WILL INCREASE
RAPIDLY. LOOK FOR EARLY AFTERNOON PEAK GUSTS REACHING OR EXCEEDING
40 KNOTS AFTER 12Z BEFORE DROPPING OFF IN THE EVENING.
FOR DTW...LOW PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER
IN THE 08-11Z TIMEFRAME. SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER THE FROPA AROUND 10Z AND WILL GUST TO 25-30KTS.
WINDS WILL FURTHER VEER TO WESTERLY DURING THE DAY FRI...GUSTING TO
40 KTS OR HIGHER.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* MEDIUM FOR CEILINGS AOB 5KFT THIS MORNING...LOW AFTER 15Z.
* LOW THAT TSTORMS WILL IMPACT KDTW FROM 06-10Z.
* HIGH IN EXCEEDING CROSSWIND THRESHOLDS FROM 260-280 DEGREES
FRIDAY.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ047>049-053>055-
060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ363-421-422-
441>443-462>464.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
LHZ361-362.
LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ444.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC
AVIATION.....DRK
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
154 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE PASSING JUST WEST OF MICHIGAN WILL BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY
RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A
PLEASANT WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW
TORNADOES WILL INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING... MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF I-96. THE THREAT WILL END SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WARM UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO OUR SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO
THE AREA AFTER 5 PM NOW THAT THE POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER KS/NE IS
EJECTING NORTHEAST. THIS FEATURE TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
MOVES TOWARD WISCONSIN LATER THIS EVENING... LEADING TO A DEEPENING
OF THE SFC LOW AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE MILWAUKEE AREA.
THIS SYNOPTIC SET UP WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT/TRIPLE POINT EXTENDING
EAST OF THE DEEPENING SFC LOW LEADS TO STRONG CONCERNS FOR ROTATING
CELLS AND SPIN UPS NEAR THE WARM FRONT THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES INTO
SWRN LWR MI... DUE TO HIGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES AND POTENTIALLY
AVAILABLE UPDRAFT HELICITY. TORNADO WATCHES ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT
JUST UPSTREAM OF SW LWR MI AND THE LATEST WATCH... 41... HAS A MEAN
STORM MOTION VECTOR OF 240 DEGREES AT 40 KTS.
IT SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT TO BELIEVE WE WILL SEE SFC BASED
CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD 00Z BASED
ON LATEST RUC GUIDANCE AND MESOANALYSIS TO OUR SW.
THE OTHER CONCERN THIS EVENING IS FOR LINES/BOWS TO DEVELOP IN THE
UPSTREAM TORNADO WATCH AREAS AND RACE RAPIDLY EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS
PARTS OF SW MI. THESE FEATURES COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WIND GUSTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
ALTHOUGH ANY STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION WILL END AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT... STRONG SYNOPTIC WIND GUSTS
BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO CONTINUED DEEPENING OF THE SFC LOW OVR NRN
LWR MI WILL LEAD TO SOME GUSTS TO 50 MPH OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WITH HIGH CLOUD BASES UNDER THE UPPER LOW ON
FRIDAY COULD HELP PROMOTE STRONG GUSTS AS WELL. WILL ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THINGS QUIET DOWN CONSIDERABLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER FOR A CHANGE FROM SUNDAY AT LEAST INTO
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. STILL A CHANCE OF A WET STRETCH ON WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY BUT TIMING IS REALLY UNCERTAIN.
OVERALL PATTER IS SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE WITH GOOD NWP AGREEMENT ON
WEST COAST TROF AND EAST COAST RIDGE DEVELOPING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SUCH A PATTERN WILL PROVIDE THE WARMTH WITH POSITIVE H85 TEMPS
THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK.
AFTER MID 60S ON SUNDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THINKING IT WILL LIKELY COOL MONDAY BY JUST A FEW DEGREES
OVER SUNDAY AS THE UPSTREAM HIGH IS WEAK AND THERE IS JUST NOT MUCH
OF A PUSH OF COLD AIR. THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY EVENING SO STILL THINKING SCT
SHOWERS ARE A GOOD BET WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ITSELF. IN ANY CASE
IT SHOULD BE A QUICK HITTER AND AT LEAST THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY
WILL BE DRY AND SEASONABLE.
AFTER THAT THERE IS MUCH DISAGREEMENT ON HOW PROGRESSIVE WEST COAST
TROF WILL BE AND HOW MUCH AND WHEN WILL A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
EJECT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN GREAT LAKES.
EACH OF THE PAST FEW DAYS THE GFS/ECM HAVE BEEN DELAYING THE SYSTEM
BY A DAY...YESTERDAY THE SIGNAL WAS FOR A WEDNSDAY EVENT WHILE TODAY
IT IS NOW LOOKING LIKE A THURSDAY EVENT. BASICALLY...THE POTENTIAL
HIS SMEARED OUT IN THE FORECAST WITH CHANCE POPS FOR TUE NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 154 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CLEAR THE EASTERN TAF SITES BY
09Z AND LIKELY WILL NOT IMPACT THE I-94 TAF SITES...MEANING ONLY
LAN SHOULD SEE ANY STORMS FROM WHAT REMAINS OF THIS LINE. THERE IS
A NARROW AREA OF CLEARING BEHIND THE CONVECTION THEN THE MVFR CIGS
WILL FOLLOW MOSTLY AFTER 09Z AND SPREAD WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
CWA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH WEST WINDS OF 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO
35 KNOTS AT TIMES. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
12Z TO 18Z TIME FRAME FROM WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BUT SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
WILL UPGRADE THE GALE WATCH TO A WARNING AS WINDS INCREASE
DRAMATICALLY OUT OF THE WEST LATER TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
ALSO AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL IMPACT LK MI UNTIL AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE DRIER AIR AND STRONG WINDS ARRIVE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 534 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE PAST 15 HOURS IN PORTIONS
OF OTTAWA... KENT... AND OCEANA COUNTIES. 1 TO 2 INCHES HAS FALLEN
IN MANY LAKESHORE AND CENTRAL MICHIGAN COMMUNITIES... AND A
QUARTER INCH TO 1 INCH IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. A FEW RIVERS HAVE
BEGUN RISING. THE ROGUE BELOW ROCKFORD IS ALREADY ABOVE BANKFULL.
SEVERAL OTHER RIVERS ARE FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE OR CLOSE TO BANKFULL.
AS SUCH... RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED IN ADDITION TO
THE AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY. RIVERS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED TONIGHT
AS MORE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ037>040-043>046-
050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...COBB
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...MEADE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
314 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS WERE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA AT
07Z. ONE WAS LOCATED IN NW MN AND THE SECOND IN CENTRAL WI. THEIR
ASSOCIATED TROFS WERE ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL AND DRIVING
SOME PCPN...MAINLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
REGION. THE LAST OF THE SNOW WAS OVER THE FAR EASTERN EDGE OF THE NW
WI FORECAST AREA WHERE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS WERE FOUND. THE SNOW IN NW
WI WILL EXIT THE AREA BY 815Z AND HAVE CANCELED THE ADVISORY WITH
NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE FOUND UNTIL 15Z OVER THIS SAME AREA. NOT EXPECTING ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EVEN THOUGH A NW WIND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL OCCUR. THE REASON...LOW LEVEL WAA IN THE 1000-900MB LEVEL WILL
OFFSET ANY POTENTIAL ACCUMULATION. WILL MAINTAIN THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY OVER SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS AND CARLTON COUNTIES WITH VSBYS
BELOW FIVE EIGHTHS OF A MILE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z.
THE UPPER LOW/TROF IN NW MN IS PROGGED TO MOVE TO SE MN BY 18Z
TODAY. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIDESPREAD PCPN...BUT DO HAVE SOME POPS
FROM 20Z TO 22Z OVER SOUTHERN SAWYER COUNTY WHERE ENOUGH FORCING
FROM THE PASSING UPPER TROF MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS. THIS IS SEEN
IN THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL...AS WELL AS THE 00Z RUN OF
THE ARW AND NMM. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING COVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND SLIP OFF TO
THE EAST ON SATURDAY. WEAK WAA IS ON TAP FOR TONIGHT AND A BIT
STRONGER ON SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF CROSSES INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NO PCPN IS EXPECTED AS COLUMN RH IS LESS
THAN 50 PERCENT. WARMEST DAY IN A LONG TIME SATURDAY WITH MAX TEMPS
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S. COOLEST OVER THE ARROWHEAD
WHERE A COOL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE
LOWER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL COMBINE WITH A
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...MODEST
WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE MID LEVELS AND INTERACT WITH AN
INCOMING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHLAND. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
OVER NRN MN WITH ML CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 250 J/KG AND
ROUGHLY 30-40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. CONDITIONS COULD BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH SMALL HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS. MUCH NEEDED RAIN WILL ALSO COME FROM THIS SYSTEM. COULD SEE
WIDESPREAD QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN WITH THIS FRONT.
BEHIND THE FRONT...COLD AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NW OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE TRIGGERED OVER
THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO N-CENTRAL WI MON MORNING...BUT THE GENERAL
TREND SHOULD BE DRYING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A DOME OF WARM
AND DRY AIR BUILDS IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. ANOTHER WEAK
FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH A
RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR POSSIBLE THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
REALLY BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION LATER THIS
WEEK...SO FOLLOWED THIS TREND AND HEDGED POPS BACK A BIT FROM
BLENDED GUIDANCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
THE PATTERN HAS ALSO SHIFTED SUCH THAT THE PERSISTENT NE WINDS OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR DO NOT APPEAR TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE WEEK...WHICH WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TWIN PORTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
LIFR CONDITIONS AT DLH WITH DENSE DUE TO E-NE FLOW OFF LAKE. THE
WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE N-NW BY 12Z WHICH IS ALLOW CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14Z. IT IS LIFR-IFR CONDITIONS AT HYR WHICH WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR THEN DROP BACK DOWN TO IFR AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.
AT BRD/INL/HIB...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR WITH POSSIBLE
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES NEAR THE AREA.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID-MORNING FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 50 31 60 44 / 0 0 0 20
INL 50 29 64 45 / 0 0 0 30
BRD 53 31 65 46 / 40 0 0 20
HYR 50 29 60 44 / 10 0 0 10
ASX 50 30 61 43 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ037.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...STEWART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1230 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
UPDATED TO ADD SOME FREEZING RAIN TO THE SNOW IN NW WI. REPORTS
HAVE BEEN RECEIVED THE OCCURRENCE OF THIS PTYPE. REST OF FCST
UNCHANGED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 911 PM CDT CDT THU APR 9 2015
BUSY NIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FIRST CONCERN IS ONGOING SNOW
ADVISORY IN NW WI. THERE IS SOME BANDING OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE
ADVISORY AREA AS INDICATED ON RADAR. THE LATEST REPORTS ARE OF A
QUICK 1-2 INCHES WITH THE SNOW SO FAR. THE TIMING STILL LOOKS GOOD
WITH THE ENDING OF THE SNOW AT HYR BY 04-05Z AND AFTER 06Z POINTS
FURTHER EAST. THERE IS STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FLOWING
INTO THE REGION EVEN WITH THE LARGE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREA IN
SOUTHERN WI/NRN IL.
THE NEXT CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS THE DENSE FOG FROM THE TWIN PORTS
TO SILVER BAY. E-NE WIND IS PUSHING A MOIST FLOW OFF THE LAKE
CAUSING DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP QUICKLY. THE HRRR INDICATES WINDS
WILL PICK UP AND SWITCH BY 12Z FRIDAY. WILL POST A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE TWIN PORTS TO SILVER BAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.
THE LAST CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS A SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA. CANADIAN RADAR INDICATES LIGHT R-/S- FALLING
FROM THE SHORTWAVE. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN THROUGH
CENTRAL MN OVERNIGHT AND MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR THE AREA
FROM BRD TO HYR WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY BRINGING NICE WEATHER FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
YET ANOTHER VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH REGARD TO PRECIPITATION
TYPE...WITH SLEET...SNOW...AND RAIN OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TODAY
AMOUNTED TO A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH. WINTRY PRECIP AMOUNTS
HAVE BEEN GENERALLY LIGHT WITH THE WINTRY PRECIP MOSTLY MELTING AT
THE SURFACE...BUT THERE ARE LIKELY A FEW SLICK SPOTS OUT THERE WITH
TEMPS IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN HOVERING AROUND OR JUST ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK. QUICK BURST OF SNOW EXPECTED IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
THIS EVENING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW IN NORTH-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA LATE TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF TOWARDS FRIDAY WITH
MILD TEMPS AND CLEARING SKIES LATE.
REST OF TODAY...CLEARING IN NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON
AS LIGHT RAIN/SNOW/SLEET MOVES ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD DOWN TO THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR AND EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. PRECIP
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AS THE
AFTERNOON GOES ON...CHANGING FROM RAIN TO A WINTRY MIX. TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM NEAR-FREEZING IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TO IN THE MID 50S
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
TONIGHT...INTENSE SNOWFALL POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHILE A
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX IN NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT WHERE THEY HAVE CLEARED THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND OVERCAST SKIES IN NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...LIGHT RAIN/WINTRY MIX WILL TRANSITION OVER
TO SNOW THIS EVENING. LARGE SCALE LIFT GENERALLY ASSOCIATED WITH JET
COUPLING ALOFT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE RAIN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW QUICKLY AS PRECIPITATION INTENSIFIES THIS EVENING. THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT CONCERN THAT A DRY SLOT ALOFT COULD END PRECIPITATION
FAIRLY QUICKLY...BUT DEPENDING ON WHEN THIS DRY AIR ARRIVES COULD BE
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A DUSTING AND WARNING-LEVEL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
COLLABORATED WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON A MIDDLE GROUND...NOTING
THAT SOME OF THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING PRECIPITATION
ENDING MUCH EARLIER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...THIS
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE HAS NOT PERFORMED VERY WELL ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY ANYWAY. ON THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM IS THE SREF WHICH HAS
VERY HIGH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT BELIEVE IT IS TOO AGGRESSIVE DUE TO
HIGH SNOW RATIOS. DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR FAST ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TONIGHT...BUT ADMIT
THAT THIS ADVISORY HAS A HIGHER-THAN-USUAL BUST POTENTIAL. GENERALLY
2-4 INCHES EXPECTED...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN IRON AND PRICE COUNTY.
FRIDAY...GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. MILD DESPITE A
COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE TODAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 MPH.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH GENERALLY
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. STRONG WAA WILL THEN DEVELOP IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY
NIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED A MENTION OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY NIGHT...AS WARM AND MORE HUMID AIR LIFTS
QUICKLY NORTHWARD ON A 40 TO 50 KNOT LLJ. SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE
A WET DAY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...STRONG
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND A STRONG
COLD FRONT. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WOULD SUPPORT SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS WELL. THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY
PUSH OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN
AND SNOW MIX LATER IN THE NIGHT IN OUR NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA
COUNTIES. MONDAY AND TUESDAY GENERALLY LOOK DRY AT THIS POINT...WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. ANOTHER MAJOR SYSTEM WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS
THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN. COULD ALSO BE SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S AND 60S...WITH THE WARMEST
DAY LOOKING TO BE ON TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
LIFR CONDITIONS AT DLH WITH DENSE DUE TO E-NE FLOW OFF LAKE. THE
WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE N-NW BY 12Z WHICH IS ALLOW CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14Z. IT IS LIFR-IFR CONDITIONS AT HYR WHICH WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR THEN DROP BACK DOWN TO IFR AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.
AT BRD/INL/HIB...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR WITH POSSIBLE
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES NEAR THE AREA.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID-MORNING FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 30 59 42 59 / 0 10 20 60
INL 27 63 43 59 / 0 0 30 60
BRD 29 64 46 62 / 0 10 20 50
HYR 28 59 43 62 / 10 0 10 60
ASX 29 59 43 62 / 0 0 10 50
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ020-037.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ003-
004-008-009.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...STEWART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
447 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 410 AM SATURDAY...WARM FRONT HAS NOW MOVED NORTH OF OUR CWA
AS TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN QUICKLY INTO THE 60S ALONG THE NORTHERN
OUTER BANKS...AFTER BEING IN THE UPPER 40S JUST A COUPLE OF HOURS
AGO. THE PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE CWA AS WELL AND
LATEST RUNS OF THE 3KM HRRR AND RAP SHOW THE AREA REMAINING DRY
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. AS DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM
THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVES AWAY...EXPECT BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL INTO THE 80S INLAND AND
WELL INTO THE 70S ALONG THE COAST. FORECAST DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 60S WILL AID DESTABILIZATION BY AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST
LI VALUES IN THE -4 TO -6 RANGE WITH CAPE VALUES OF 1500 J/KG
FORECAST BY LATER IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A LINE OF CONVECTION ARRIVES IN OUR CWA AROUND 00Z
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MOVES OFFSHORE SOMETIME NEAR 06Z. SPC
HAS COUNTIES JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
TODAY WITH MARGINAL RISK ALONG THE COAST...MAINLY DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES. THINK
STRONG DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...ALTHOUGH CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LARGE HAIL AS WELL. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE LIKELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM FRIDAY...WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS ALONG THE COAST AFTER
06Z WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING NEAR OR OFFSHORE BY 12Z. THE THREAT
OF THUNDER WILL LARGE END AFTER 06Z AS MOST OF THE INSTABILITY
MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION DOES NOT
START IN EARNEST UNTIL SATURDAY...SO THINK MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND 60 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS. A TOTAL OF ONE-
HALF TO POSSIBLY THREE-QUARTER INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS SAT-MON PERIOD
WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRY FCST. SIGNIFICANT
ADJUSTMENTS TO TUE-THU PERIOD WITH MODELS INDICATING FRONTAL
PASSAGE TUE-TUE NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRES WED-THU.
SATURDAY...00Z GFS HAS FRONT WELL OFF COAST AT 12Z WHILE NAM AND
ECMWF HAVE IT JUST ALONG COAST WITH SRN STREAM SHRT WV STILL
MOVING THROUGH TO INDICATE LINGERING THREAT OF SHOWERS UNTIL MID
MORNING. CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST WHICH LEANED TO THIS SLIGHTLY
SLOWER SOLUTION. CLEARING EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTN AND MOS GDNC
SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS 70-75 INLAND WITH 60S OBX.
SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
SFC RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS TO N...THEN OFFSHORE ON MON. COOLEST
TEMPS LIKELY SAT NIGHT...MAINLY MID TO UPR 40S. TEMPS THEN
MODERATING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MON.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NRN
STREAM SHRT WV MOVING ACROS NE US WITH ATTENDANT SFC FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH ERN NC LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. GIVEN INCREASED MODEL
CONFIDENCE...ADDED SLGT CHC POPS OVER WRN SECTIONS LATE MON NIGHT
AND INCREASED POPS TO CHC ALL ZONES TUE WITH LINGERING SLGT CHC
ERN SECTIONS TUE EVENING. MODELS INDICATE RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT
LATE TUE NIGHT INTO THU...AND DROPPED POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH MSTR
AND LIFT REMAINING S AND W OF AREA UNTIL THU NIGHT. TEMPS A FEW
DEGS COOLER BEHIND FRONT WED...MODERATING AGAIN THU.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1 AM FRIDAY...WITH CONVECTION GRADUALLY MOVING NORTH OF ALL
TAF SITES...EXPECT A WARM MOIST AIRMASS TO PREVAIL WITH SOME
PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG. GUIDANCE INDICATES CEILINGS DROPPING INTO
IFR RANGE FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE IMPROVING WITH GOOD MIXING FROM
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS
ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AGAIN AFTER 00Z SATURDAY WITH LINE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...LINGERING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PSBL EARLY SAT
MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR ALL AREAS BY AFTN. VFR EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL SAT NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH HIGH PRES MOVING ACROSS TO N
AND THEN OFFSHORE. SUB-VFR PSBL AGAIN LATE MON NIGHT AS MSTR
RETURNS WITH SRLY FLOW...BUT MORE LIKELY TUE WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM FRIDAY...WARM FRONT HAS NOW WORKED NORTH OF THE CWA
WITH ALL WINDS SE/S. WIND SPEEDS HAVE INCREASED...NOW REACH 20
KNOTS ON THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND 15 TO 20 KNOTS AT DUCK WITH A
SOLID 15 KNOTS ON THE PAMLICO SOUND. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL LIKELY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS INTO LATE TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
RESPOND...INCREASING TO AS HIGH AS 5 TO 7 FEET OVER THE CENTRAL
WATERS LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO SAT-MON
PERIOD...BUT DID ADJUST MON NIGHT-TUE PERIOD WITH LATEST MODEL
CONSENSUS. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SAT MORNING FOLLOWED BY
BRIEF NRLY WIND SURGE WHICH WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KT BY
EVENING. SECONDARY SURGE OF NE WINDS 15-20 KT LATE SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...THEN WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO E-SE AROUND 10 KT SUN
NIGHT INTO MON. 00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT S-SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MON NIGHT INTO TUE
AND ADJUSTED FCST ACCORDINGLY.
LOCAL NWPS NOT AVBL...AND USED BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND WW3 FOR
SEAS. HEIGHTS SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT LATE SAT...THEN BUILDING AGAIN
TO 3-4 FT SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...DROPPING TO AROUND 2 FT SUN NIGHT
INTO MON. SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT TUE WITH STRONGER S-SW WINDS.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ135-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...CTC/JBM
MARINE...CTC/JBM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1256 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY AND MOVE
OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM FRIDAY...VERY TIGHT INSTABILITY GRADIENT ALONG
EAST-WEST ORIENTED WARM FRONT CURRENTLY BISECTING THE CWA. LATEST
3 KM HRRR HANDLING CURRENT PRECIPITATION WELL SHOWING
SHOWERS/TSTMS AFFECTING OUR FAR NW/N CWA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION
AND OUT TO SEA THROUGH 08Z OR SO. HAVE DROPPED POPS OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG IN THESE AREAS LATE.
QUITE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL WITH 49
DEGREES AT FFA BUT NEAR 70 AROUND JACKSONVILLE. THE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM OVER THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS
AS THE WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM THURSDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA ON FRIDAY PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SPLY FOR NW
SECTIONS LATE IN THE DAY. A VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AMS FRI AFTN
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF PSBL SVR TSTMS BUT MAIN FORCING WITH FRONT
WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM UNTIL EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCT CONVECTION IS PSBL
INLAND OF SEA BREEZE DURING AFTN...BUT BEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS AND SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL FRI EVE.WARM
TEMPS EXPECTED ON FRI WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE MID
80S COASTAL PLAINS TO THE LWR AND MID 70S OBX AND NERN AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY... MAIN FEATURE DURING PERIOD WILL BE A
STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO AREA FRI NIGHT AND OFFSHORE
SAT MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ENE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT THEN EAST INTO QUEBEC SATURDAY.
AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO EASTERN CANADA, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS EASTERN NC AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AHEAD OF AND ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MUCAPE VALUES PEAK AROUND 03-06Z FRI NIGHT
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SW SHEAR,
THOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES WANE TO ROUGHLY 20-25 KNOTS WITH LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES BELOW 6 C/KM AFTER 00Z. SEVERE POTENTIAL FRIDAY
NIGHT REMAINS WITH BIGGEST THREATS OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NC COAST BY
MID MORNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUED TO INDICATE A DRIER TREND FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MAX TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
FRIDAY WITH LOW/MID 70S INLAND TO LOW/MID 60S NORTHERN OBX. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE DELMARVA REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED
WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LATEST GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GEM HAVE
SHIFTED SOLUTIONS, BUT ARE IN MODEST AGREEMENT, WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AFTERNOON THAT
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. 00Z GUIDANCE KEPT THE FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA WHILE
12Z GUIDANCE NOW MOVES THE FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NC WITH MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
DID NOT BITE OFF ENTIRELY ON 12Z SUITE BUT HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE BRIEF RIDGING MOVE
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHIFTING OFFSHORE
THURSDAY WITH NORTHEAST FLOW SHIFTING EASTERLY BY THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...WITH CONVECTION GRADUALLY
MOVING NORTH OF ALL TAF SITES...EXPECT A WARM MOIST AIRMASS TO
PREVAIL WITH SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG. GUIDANCE INDICATES
CEILINGS DROPPING INTO IFR RANGE FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE IMPROVING
WITH GOOD MIXING FROM GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AGAIN AFTER 00Z SATURDAY
WITH LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG COLD FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM FRIDAY...WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY
NORTH. WINDS STILL NE NORTH OF OREGON INLET...BUT E/SE ELSEWHERE
AND SHOULD BECOME SE/S BY LATER TONIGHT AND S/SW BY MORNING WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS ARE AT 3 TO 5 FEET. NO
MAJOR CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...TIGHTENING SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE SW WINDS 15-25 KT FRI
NIGHT WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
PAMLICO SOUND. INITIAL SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS WITH CAA IN WAKE
OF FRONT WILL BE AROUND 15 KTS AND LIMITED TO SAT MORNING.
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SECONDARY SURGE OF NE WINDS 15-20 KT EXPECTED
LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. WINDS THEN DIMINISH AND GRADUALLY
VEER TO SE SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY. WINDS VEER SOUTH TUESDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY. BLEND OF
PREVIOUS FORECAST, LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND LATEST WAVEWATCH III USED
FOR SEAS. HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 6-7 FT INTO FRI NIGHT, SUBSIDING SAT
AND THEN BUILDING AGAIN SUNDAY WITH SECONDARY NE SURGE. LIGHTER
WINDS WILL THEN ALLOW SEAS TO DROP TO 1-3 FT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ135-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JAC/JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1231 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
LATE EVENING FORECASTER LOWERED SKY COVER WEST AND ACCOUNTED FOR
SOME LOW CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LATEST RAP/HRRR
STILL INDICATED LOWER CLOUDS POSSIBLY GRAZING THE JAMESTOWN AREA.
WILL MONITOR BUT WILL STICK WITH CURRENT FORECAST FOR NOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
FOR LATE EVENING UPDATE HAVE DROPPED CLOUD COVER DOWN QUITE A BIT
WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. ONLY CONCERN WITH
CLOUD COVER IS FOR LATER TONIGHT AS SOME LOW CLOUDS TO THE WEST OF
LAKE MANITOBA ARE TRYING TO SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTHWARD. THIS MAY
GRAZE PARTS OF FAR NORTH CENTRAL LATE TONIGHT. ONLY OTHER CHANGE
TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ADD SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
PART OF THE STATE THAT RECEIVED ACCUMULATING SNOW LAST NIGHT. WITH
TODAYS MELTING...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE AS WINDS
ARE GOING CALM AND TEMPERATURE CONTINUES TO DROP. UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS STILL ON TRACK TO DIMINISH BY
AROUND SUNSET. OTHERWISE...A QUIET EVENING IS EXPECTED AS SKIES
CLEAR UP AND ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS COME TO AN END LATER THIS
EVENING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE A
QUIET TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
CURRENTLY...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND A STRONG S/WV MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. LARGE CU FIELD DEVELOPING AS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW SHOWERS POPPING UP WITHIN THE
CU AS THE HRRR AND 4KM WRF ADVERTISED. DOUBTFUL MUCH WILL REACH
THE GROUND BUT WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST NOW THROUGH
03Z. WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30KTS AS WE MIX TO AROUND 700MB AND
SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND SUNDOWN...THEN DISSIPATE QUICKLY.
WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE SHOWER ACTIVITY...AIDED WITH
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING BENEATH THE CLOUD BASES AS PRECIPITATION
FALLS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT
CLEARING THE SKY. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES SOUTH AND EAST FRIDAY
ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW/WAA INTO THE REGION. DECENT DAY FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND A RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM INCLUDE STRONG AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY - WITH POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES - AND AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH SETTING UP FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE AREA TO THE EAST
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND APPROACHES
NORTH DAKOTA. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPANDS
EASTWARD AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. MEANWHILE A SURFACE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
SATURDAY NIGHT: UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REACHES NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF AND
ALONG AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST.
SUNDAY: THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY...AND
65 TO 75 TUESDAY.
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EMERGES IN
THE WESTERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...CROSSING THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE DURING THIS TIME...WITH
HIGHS 50 TO 60 WEDNESDAY...AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KISN KDIK KMOT AND KBIS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE KJMS WHERE LATEST
RAP/HRRR STILL INDICATE A PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS GRAZING OUR
EASTERN FORECAST AREA INCLUDING KJMS. CURRENTLY MAINLY VFR
CEILINGS OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND MOVING INTO NORTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA. FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION A SCATTERED LAYER OF MVFR CLOUDS
AND SEE HOW THINGS PROGRESS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT SOUTHERLY ON
FRIDAY. KJMS WILL SEE A NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
SUNDAY: STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH
POSSIBLE. HIGHS OF 55 TO 60 EXPECTED...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT SOUTHWEST TO AROUND 25 PERCENT
NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH. RECENT RAIN AND SNOWFALL OVER THE REGION IS
NOTED...AND WEATHER DORMANT GRASSES WILL HAVE TIME TO DRY OUT IS THE
MAIN QUESTION.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1141 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
MADE SOME FURTHER TWEAKS TO POPS AND WEATHER. THE PRECIP IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA HAS BEEN ALL RAIN SO FAR. HOWEVER...THERE HAS
BEEN SOME PRECIP DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE ALONG
THE DEFORMATION ZONE AND WINNIPEG HAS STARTED REPORTING SOME SNOW.
HAVE A SECOND ROUND COMING IN LATER TONIGHT SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST
THAN CURRENT PRECIP OVER OUR FAR EASTERN TIER. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS AN INCH OR TWO
AT MOST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
PRETTY STRONG SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DIG TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN
CWA AND A BIT OF RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THAT AREA. MODELS DO
NOT REALLY KICK IN THE HIGHER QPF VALUES UNTIL THE 06 TO 09Z TIME
FRAME...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN CANADIAN RADAR. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA LATER
TONIGHT. THE NAM AND RAP DROP 3-4 INCHES OF SNOW IN SPOTS...BUT
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE LOWEST PART OF THE COLUMN WILL BE
STILL ABOVE ZERO SO THINK THAT THE ACCUMULATIONS ARE OVERDONE.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A RAIN SNOW MIX BUT HAVE FAIRLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS FOR NOW AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW TEMPERATURES
RESPOND AS THE SYSTEM DIGS DOWN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
TWEAKED UP WINDS A BIT THIS EVENING AS IT HAS BECOME RATHER GUSTY
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. NOT MUCH FROM THE RADAR
RETURNS IN NORTHWESTERN MN HAS BEEN REACHING THE GROUND YET...SO
WILL KEEP POPS FAIRLY LOW UNTIL THE MAIN UPPER LOW COMES DOWN
LATER TONIGHT. THE RAP HAS BEEN SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
FZRA IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM
OTHER MODELS HAVE THE COLUMN COOLING JUST AS FAST AS SFC TEMPS AND
KEEP MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX. FOR NOW WILL KEEP ANY FREEZING
PRECIP OUT BUT WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THINGS AS FURTHER MODEL
RUNS TRICKLE IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
UPPER LOW FORECASTED BY ALL MODELS TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD JUST
EAST OF THE VALLEY TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE LIKELY ENOUGH
FORCING AND MOISTURE FOR ISOLD SHOWERS. THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE FORCING...WHERE THE
P-TYPE SHOULD BE MOSTLY SNOW...WITH AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH.
HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...LEADING TO NO/MINIMAL IMPACTS. NOT MUCH CHANCE TO EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...STRONGER WAVE IN MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW
APPROACHES THE REGION ON SATURDAY...MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY.
MODELS INDICATE THAT STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE NORTHWARD FOR AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE SAT NIGHT...AT LEAST EAST OF THE VALLEY. INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH POCKETS OF STRONGER 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BRING THUNDER CHANCES. INSTABILITY IS WEAK...AND MODELS INDICATE
COVERAGE ISOLD-SCT...BUT THERE ARE ENOUGH SIGNALS TO CONTINUE THE
THUNDER MENTION. SHOWERS QUICKLY MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY. WINDY
CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY ADVISORY CRITERIA...LIKELY ON SUNDAY (DEEP
MIX LAYER WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND AVERAGE SPEEDS AROUND 35
KNOTS). THIS COULD ALSO BE A POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP IN THE LONG
TERM. ALTHOUGH LONG TERM MODELS HAVE TYPICAL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF A SYSTEM 5 TO 6 DAYS OUT...THEY ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH A DECENT WARMUP INTO THE 70S FOLLOWED BY A MID
PLAINS CYCLONE DEVELOPING AND WELCOMING SOME WELL NEEDED MOISTURE
TO THE REGION. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS OF
PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDER AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH. THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IS SHOWING THE BEST
AGREEMENT FOR PRECIPITATION AND PLANS TO CHANGE THE CHANCE POPS IN
FOR DAYS 5 AND 6.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
ALL SITES ARE VFR FOR THE MOMENT...BUT AS A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE
DIGS DOWN...THINK WE WILL SEE SOME MVFR CIGS LIKE THOSE IN
SOUTHERN MANITOBA. WESTWARD EXTENT IS MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
SO INCLUDED KGFK AND KFAR IN CIGS GOING DOWN BELOW 3000 FT FOR A
WHILE THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND POSSIBILY SNOW WILL REMAIN
CONFINED TO KTVF AND KBJI. ALL SITES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND BECOME
VFR AGAIN BY MID MORNING. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE
BELOW 12 KTS TOMORROW MORNING...THEN SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
146 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT WHICH CROSSES MIDDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. COLD
FRONT CROSSES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO CLEAR THE AREA OF POPS LIMITING LIKELY AT A
SMALL PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL WV ACCORDING TO DOPPLER RADAR.
DELAYED ABOUT 6 HOURS THE ONSET THE CONVECTION EXPECTED AHEAD OF NEXT
COLD FRONT TIMED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH AROUND 09Z...SPREADING
QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. TWEAKED HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS AS WELL.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
800 PM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK SAVE FOR WET BULB ADJUSTMENTS. WX QUIETING DOWN
UNTIL THE MAIN PRE FRONTAL CONVECTION SHOWS UP EARLY FRI MORNING.
PREV DISCN...
YET ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST...HOWEVER THE
MEAN FLOW TODAY LOOKS TO KEEP THE STRONGEST STORMS TO OUR WEST...OR
JUST CLIPPING THE WESTERN CWA. THE HIGHEST ML CAPE REMAINS WEST OF
CWA...AND WOULD EXPECT STRONGEST STORMS TO STICK CLOSER TO THIS. WE
ARE STILL FIRMLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR HOWEVER WITH CONVECTION
POPPING UP ACROSS WV SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN KENTUCKY...SO WILL
STILL HAVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DRIFTING NE ACROSS FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH. THINK THE
BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
WEST OF FORECAST AREA. IN CWA BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE IN THE WESTERN
THIRD OF CWA...ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. USED THE HRRR TO TIME THE BEST POPS...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS TOUGH TO GET EXACT. LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW IS
GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...20-30KTS AROUND 925 MB...UP TO
50-60KTS AT 500MB. THIS WILL KEEP THINGS MOVING WHICH SHOULD HELP
WITH WATER CONCERNS. MAIN CONCERN WATER-WISE WILL BE TRAINING
CELLS...ESPECIALLY ALONG ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT LINGER PARALLEL
TO THE FLOW. NO REASON TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
IN THE WETTER AREAS...THAT WERE HIT LAST NIGHT BY HEAVY RAIN...IT
WOULD LIKELY ONLY TAKE 1-1.5 INCHES IN 3 HOURS OR LESS TO START
CAUSING PROBLEMS AGAIN...WHILE AREAS THAT HAVE NOT RECEIVED AS MUCH
RAIN OVER THE LAST DAY OR TWO IT WOULD TAKE 1.5-2 IN 3 HOURS.
TRIED TO SHOW A BREAK LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...AS
CONVECTION FROM THIS AFTERNOON EXITS TO THE NE...AND A COLD FRONT
FINALLY APPROACHES FROM THE WNW. STILL HAVE ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS MENTIONED THROUGH THE NIGHT...AS WE REMAIN IN THE
WARM SECTOR.
COLD FRONT ARRIVES TO WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY MORNING. GFS/ECMWF ARE
FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TIMING WITH THE FRONT...WHILE NAM LAGS BEHIND A
BIT. DID NOT CHANGE PREVIOUS FORECAST TIMING A WHOLE LOT...BUT DID
INCREASE POPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT FORECAST OF A DRY AND MILD WEEKEND CONTINUES ONT RACK...AS
MODELS VERY CONSISTENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE OHIO
VALLEY. LOOK FOR NEAR SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BUT CHILLY
NIGHTS WITH A LARGE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS DEPICT ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MEANDERING BACK AND FORTH ACROSS
OUR REGION FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE SPECIFIC DETAILS MAY BE
DIFFERENT FOR EACH SYSTEM THAT RUNS ALONG THIS FRONT...THE GENERAL
SCENARIO IS FOR WARM...MOIST AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE
TO PRESENT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANYTIME FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS UNDER SOUTH
SOUTHWEST FLOW. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AFTER 08-09Z
WITH CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OH...SPREADING EAST THROUGH NOON INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
THROUGH THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY BY STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA.
BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND THEN VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
ANOTHER MINOR DETAIL...AN MVFR STRATOCU DECK MAY APPROACH BKW FROM
THE GREENBRIER VALLEY FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF THE FLOW
THERE VEERS FURTHER THAN 180.
MODERATE TO STRONG SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME
MODERATE W BEHIND THE FRONT FRI AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS/STORMS COULD
VARY. MVFR STRATOCU DECK MAY OR MAY NOT MAKE IT INTO BKW OVERNIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 04/10/15
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M H H H M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H M M M H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M H H H H
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-
013-014-017-019-020.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ015-016-018-
024>032-037>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-
075-076-083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-
105.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...ARJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1217 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT WHICH CROSSES MIDDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. COLD
FRONT CROSSES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO CLEAR THE AREA OF POPS LIMITING LIKELY AT A
SMALL PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL WV ACCORDING TO DOPPLER RADAR.
DELAYED ABOUT 6 HOURS THE ONSET THE CONVECTION EXPECTED AHEAD OF NEXT
COLD FRONT TIMED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH AROUND 09Z...SPREADING
QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. TWEAKED HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS AS WELL.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
800 PM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK SAVE FOR WET BULB ADJUSTMENTS. WX QUIETING DOWN
UNTIL THE MAIN PRE FRONTAL CONVECTION SHOWS UP EARLY FRI MORNING.
PREV DISCN...
YET ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST...HOWEVER THE
MEAN FLOW TODAY LOOKS TO KEEP THE STRONGEST STORMS TO OUR WEST...OR
JUST CLIPPING THE WESTERN CWA. THE HIGHEST ML CAPE REMAINS WEST OF
CWA...AND WOULD EXPECT STRONGEST STORMS TO STICK CLOSER TO THIS. WE
ARE STILL FIRMLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR HOWEVER WITH CONVECTION
POPPING UP ACROSS WV SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN KENTUCKY...SO WILL
STILL HAVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DRIFTING NE ACROSS FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH. THINK THE
BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
WEST OF FORECAST AREA. IN CWA BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE IN THE WESTERN
THIRD OF CWA...ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. USED THE HRRR TO TIME THE BEST POPS...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS TOUGH TO GET EXACT. LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW IS
GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...20-30KTS AROUND 925 MB...UP TO
50-60KTS AT 500MB. THIS WILL KEEP THINGS MOVING WHICH SHOULD HELP
WITH WATER CONCERNS. MAIN CONCERN WATER-WISE WILL BE TRAINING
CELLS...ESPECIALLY ALONG ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT LINGER PARALLEL
TO THE FLOW. NO REASON TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
IN THE WETTER AREAS...THAT WERE HIT LAST NIGHT BY HEAVY RAIN...IT
WOULD LIKELY ONLY TAKE 1-1.5 INCHES IN 3 HOURS OR LESS TO START
CAUSING PROBLEMS AGAIN...WHILE AREAS THAT HAVE NOT RECEIVED AS MUCH
RAIN OVER THE LAST DAY OR TWO IT WOULD TAKE 1.5-2 IN 3 HOURS.
TRIED TO SHOW A BREAK LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...AS
CONVECTION FROM THIS AFTERNOON EXITS TO THE NE...AND A COLD FRONT
FINALLY APPROACHES FROM THE WNW. STILL HAVE ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS MENTIONED THROUGH THE NIGHT...AS WE REMAIN IN THE
WARM SECTOR.
COLD FRONT ARRIVES TO WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY MORNING. GFS/ECMWF ARE
FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TIMING WITH THE FRONT...WHILE NAM LAGS BEHIND A
BIT. DID NOT CHANGE PREVIOUS FORECAST TIMING A WHOLE LOT...BUT DID
INCREASE POPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT FORECAST OF A DRY AND MILD WEEKEND CONTINUES ONT RACK...AS
MODELS VERY CONSISTENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE OHIO
VALLEY. LOOK FOR NEAR SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BUT CHILLY
NIGHTS WITH A LARGE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS DEPICT ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MEANDERING BACK AND FORTH ACROSS
OUR REGION FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE SPECIFIC DETAILS MAY BE
DIFFERENT FOR EACH SYSTEM THAT RUNS ALONG THIS FRONT...THE GENERAL
SCENARIO IS FOR WARM...MOIST AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE
TO PRESENT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANYTIME FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AT EKN AT 00Z MOVED QUICKLY OFF TO THE E.
ANOTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MOVING NE THROUGH THE POINT PLEASANT
AREA WILL PASS JUST S OF PKB 0040Z.
THERE MAY BE ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING IN
THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE...ALLOWING FOR A QUIET OVERNIGHT.
THAT REPRIEVE WILL NOT LAST LONG THOUGH. A COLD FRONT CHARGING
THROUGH IL THIS EVENING WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FRI MORNING. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THE STORMS CAN BE HEAVY AND
STRONG...THEY ARE IN GENERAL NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AS THOSE THIS
PAST AFTERNOON AND EVENING WERE.
THE FRONT WILL CROSS LATE MORNING AND MIDDAY FRIDAY...FOLLOWED Y
BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND THEN VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
ANOTHER MINOR DETAIL...AN MVFR STRATOCU DECK MAY APPROACH BKW FROM
THE GREENBRIER VALLEY FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF THE FLOW
THERE VEERS FURTHER THAN 180.
SFC FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE S TO SW OVERNIGHT...BECOMING GUSTY TOWARD
FRI MORNING. STRONG AND GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY W BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE.
MODERATE TO STRONG SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME MODERATE W
BEHIND THE FRONT FRI AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS/STORMS COULD
VARY. MVFR STRATOCU DECK MAY OR MAY NOT MAKE IT INTO BKW OVERNIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 04/10/15
UTC 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
EDT 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M L M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M L M H
BKW CONSISTENCY H M M M M M H H H M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M L H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M L
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-
013-014-017-019-020.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ015-016-018-
024>032-037>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-
075-076-083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-
105.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
459 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND.
MOISTURE WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT...WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM...ISOLD TO SCTD SHRA/TSRA ARE BUBBLING OVER THE WRN
UPSTATE. SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES NEARLY 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE IN
THIS AREA...WHICH IS ALSO SUBJECT TO SLIGHT LIFT IN WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT. ONE ROUND OF STORMS HAS COME AND GONE WITHIN THE PAST HOUR.
LOOKING AT RAP PROFILES AND TRENDS THEREOF IT APPEARS A WEAK CAP
ASSOCIATED WITH POOR LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY COME AND GO EARLY
THIS AM. HRRR DOES NOT PICK UP ON MUCH IN THE WAY OF DISCRETE
CONVECTION THRU DAYBREAK...SO KEPT POPS IN THE ISOLD RANGE. DID MAKE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THRU THE AM WITH THIS UPDATE TO FOCUS
MAINLY ON THE ORGANIZED LINES MOVING OUT OF TENN/ALA...WHICH ARE
TIMED TO REACH OUR WRNMOST ZONES A LITTLE AFTER 12Z.
DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AND TRACK NEWD OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES AND INTO ONTARIO TODAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACRS
THE ERN HALF OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MRNG...CROSSING THE NC
MTNS AROUND MIDDAY AND DEPARTING THE CWFA BY EARLY EVENING.
PREFRONTAL TSTMS NOW TRACKING ACRS MIDDLE TN AND NRN AL APPEAR TO BE
OUTPACING THEIR DEPICTIONS ON THE HRRR AND 4KM SPC WRF BY A COUPLE OF
HRS. MAKING THIS ADJUSTMENT THEY ARE ON TRACK TO REACH OUR WRN BORDER
BY 12-13Z. IN GENERAL MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN THIS ACTIVITY REACHING A
NOCTURNAL MINIMUM AT THAT TIME AND/OR DIMINISHING AS IT ENCOUNTERS
THE TERRAIN.
HOWEVER AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED A
STEADY WAVE OF FORCING SHOULD PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA. MOST
GUIDANCE HAS THE PIEDMONT DESTABILIZING TO THE TUNE OF 1000-1500 J/KG
BEFORE NOON AND THE FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THAT AREA DURING PEAK
HEATING...TEMPS MAXING OUT 6-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN AN AIRMASS
MORE REMINISCENT OF LATE SPRING. SOMEWHAT OF A LULL MAY COME BETWEEN
THE DYING PREFRONTAL STORMS AND THOSE THAT DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE
FRONT. 35-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT WHICH WILL BE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW STORMS TO ATTAIN SOME LINEAR ORGANIZATION...AND
MAINTAIN A MODEST DMGG WIND AND HAIL THREAT. 0-3KM HELICITY UPWARDS
OF 200 M2/S2 IS SEEN ON MODEL PROGS JUST PRIOR TO THE FROPA...AND
THIS IS A BIT CONCERNING PARTICULARLY WHERE IT OVERLAPS WITH THE MOST
SHEAR. THIS IS BASICALLY OUR LOWER PIEDMONT ZONES AND ADJACENT AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THIS AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK ON THE
DAY 1 OUTLOOK.
THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY SUNSET. COLD ADVECTION WILL GET
UNDERWAY IN THE LLVLS...MAINLY HAVING THE EFFECT OF PROLONGING GUSTY
WINDS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE GRADIENT DOES NOT LOOK ESPECIALLY
TIGHT AND PROFILES INDICATE SUB-ADVISORY GUSTS. FAIRLY RAPID CLEARING
SHOULD OCCUR...THOUGH A BIT MORE SLOWLY IN THE MTNS WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE WINDS. DESPITE THE CONTINENTAL AIRMASS MINS WILL
STILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT FRIDAY...A BROAD AND FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE SE U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND. ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY 12Z SUNDAY...WITH
COOLER THICKNESSES AND DRIER PROFILES IN PLACE THE ENTIRE WEEKEND.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO FOR
MAXES/MINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT FRIDAY...A SRN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS OK/TX
EARLY IN THE WEEK MAY SEND SHORTWAVE RIPPLES IN ADVANCE ACROSS THE
SRN APPALACHIANS MON THROUGH TUE. ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC REFLECTIONS
WILL ALSO LIKELY MOVE NE ALONG AN APPROACHING SFC COLD FRONT DRIVEN
BY A NRN STREAM SYSTEM. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN FAIRLY
QUICKLY...STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT...AND DEEPENING THROUGH THE DAY ON
MONDAY ALONG WITH IMPROVING UPGLIDE...THEN MAXIMIZING WITH THE WAVES
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE MON NIGHT INTO TUE TO CREATE THE HIGHEST POP.
EXPECT A SMALLER THAN CLIMO DIURNAL RANGE ON MAXES/MINS GIVEN THE
ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS AND ABOVE CLIMO POP.
A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT COULD PROVIDE SOME LIMITED DRYING FROM
THE N TUE NIGHT INTO WED...ALONG WITH MORE STABLE PROFILES. DEEP
LAYER SW FLOW WILL THEN RETURN WED NIGHT AND THU AS HEIGHTS FALL
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THIS COULD BE THE PRELUDE TO A
VERY ACTIVE LATE WEEK IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE AND PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT /09Z UPDATE/...DESPITE MOIST SWLY FLOW IT APPEARS VFR CIGS
FROM MID-HIGH CLOUDS IS MOST LIKELY TO HOLD ON THRU THE MRNG. FEW-
SCT LOW VFR CLOUDS MAY BE SEEN AT TIMES. MAIN STORY FOR THE DAY
TODAY IS COLD FROPA PRECEDED BY CONVECTION. DISCRETE OR LOOSELY
ORGANIZED CELLS MAY DEVELOP BY MIDDAY BUT OMITTED A TS MENTION
AT THAT TIME...AS THE BEST CHANCES WILL COME LATER IN THE AFTN AS
THE FRONT ARRIVES BRINGING THE BEST FORCING. A TEMPO FOR MVFR
CIGS/VSBY IN TSRA WAS INCLUDED WHEN CHANCE IS GREATEST. CU BASES
SHOULD GENERALLY FORM ABOVE THE VFR THRESHOLD AWAY FROM ANY TS. TS
TAKING A DIRECT HIT ON THE FIELD WOULD LIKELY BRING BRIEF IFR VSBY.
WITH BRISK MIDLEVEL FLOW TAPPED BY MIXING...WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT TS WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG TO
PERHAPS EVEN SEVERE GUSTS. PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISH BY SUNSET WITH
WSHFT TO NW OCCURRING MID-LATE EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...VFR OVERNIGHT WITH SFC DEWPTS BEING LOW ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE FOG...THOUGH IT WILL BE WISE TO MONITOR UPSTREAM OVER
AL/GA FOR DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS THAT COULD POTENTIALLY ADVECT
IN BY DAWN. TRENDS GENERALLY AS AT KCLT BUT WITH CONVECTION
ARRIVING EARLIER. LATEST MESO GUIDANCE BRINGS CONVECTION INTO THE
MTNS AS SOON AS 12-13Z. USED TEMPO GROUPS DURING TIME OF PEAK TSRA
CHANCES TO MENTION PSBL VSBY RESTRICTIONS. IFR CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION IF A SITE TAKES A DIRECT HIT FROM A TS...BUT FEEL MORE
CONFIDENT JUST MENTIONING MVFR. WINDS WILL SWING TO NW AFTER THE
FROPA...MID AFTN AT KAVL BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER SUNSET IN THE
PIEDMONT.
OUTLOOK...A DRY AIR MASS WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL SURGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS ON MONDAY AND MAY LINGER INTO THE MIDDLE TO LATE WORK WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
09-15Z 15-21Z 21-03Z 03-06Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% LOW 56% MED 71% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 81% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% MED 75% MED 76% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% LOW 56% MED 71% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% MED 64% HIGH 85% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
316 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND.
MOISTURE WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT...WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM...GENTLE LLVL WARM ADVECTION IS PROVIDING A BIT OF
LIFT...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM REMAINING ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVER THE WRN UPSTATE. MOIST SW FLOW CONTINUES AT THE
SFC...BUT LOW STRATUS ADVECTING IN FROM THE COAST LOOKS UNLIKELY.
UPSTREAM OBS HAVE YET TO INDICATE ANY AND GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF
EARLIER EXPECTATIONS OF LOW CIGS.
DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AND TRACK NEWD OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES AND INTO ONTARIO TODAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACRS
THE ERN HALF OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MRNG...CROSSING THE NC
MTNS AROUND MIDDAY AND DEPARTING THE CWFA BY EARLY EVENING.
PREFRONTAL TSTMS NOW TRACKING ACRS MIDDLE TN AND NRN AL APPEAR TO BE
OUTPACING THEIR DEPICTIONS ON THE HRRR AND 4KM SPC WRF BY A COUPLE OF
HRS. MAKING THIS ADJUSTMENT THEY ARE ON TRACK TO REACH OUR WRN BORDER
BY 12-13Z. IN GENERAL MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN THIS ACTIVITY REACHING A
NOCTURNAL MINIMUM AT THAT TIME AND/OR DIMINISHING AS IT ENCOUNTERS
THE TERRAIN.
HOWEVER AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED A
STEADY WAVE OF FORCING SHOULD PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA. MOST
GUIDANCE HAS THE PIEDMONT DESTABILIZING TO THE TUNE OF 1000-1500 J/KG
BEFORE NOON AND THE FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THAT AREA DURING PEAK
HEATING...TEMPS MAXING OUT 6-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN AN AIRMASS
MORE REMINISCENT OF LATE SPRING. SOMEWHAT OF A LULL MAY COME BETWEEN
THE DYING PREFRONTAL STORMS AND THOSE THAT DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE
FRONT. 35-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT WHICH WILL BE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW STORMS TO ATTAIN SOME LINEAR ORGANIZATION...AND
MAINTAIN A MODEST DMGG WIND AND HAIL THREAT. 0-3KM HELICITY UPWARDS
OF 200 M2/S2 IS SEEN ON MODEL PROGS JUST PRIOR TO THE FROPA...AND
THIS IS A BIT CONCERNING PARTICULARLY WHERE IT OVERLAPS WITH THE MOST
SHEAR. THIS IS BASICALLY OUR LOWER PIEDMONT ZONES AND ADJACENT AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THIS AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK ON THE
DAY 1 OUTLOOK.
THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY SUNSET. COLD ADVECTION WILL GET
UNDERWAY IN THE LLVLS...MAINLY HAVING THE EFFECT OF PROLONGING GUSTY
WINDS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE GRADIENT DOES NOT LOOK ESPECIALLY
TIGHT AND PROFILES INDICATE SUB-ADVISORY GUSTS. FAIRLY RAPID CLEARING
SHOULD OCCUR...THOUGH A BIT MORE SLOWLY IN THE MTNS WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE WINDS. DESPITE THE CONTINENTAL AIRMASS MINS WILL
STILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT FRIDAY...A BROAD AND FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE SE U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND. ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY 12Z SUNDAY...WITH
COOLER THICKNESSES AND DRIER PROFILES IN PLACE THE ENTIRE WEEKEND.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO FOR
MAXES/MINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT FRIDAY...A SRN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS OK/TX
EARLY IN THE WEEK MAY SEND SHORTWAVE RIPPLES IN ADVANCE ACROSS THE
SRN APPALACHIANS MON THROUGH TUE. ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC REFLECTIONS
WILL ALSO LIKELY MOVE NE ALONG AN APPROACHING SFC COLD FRONT DRIVEN
BY A NRN STREAM SYSTEM. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN FAIRLY
QUICKLY...STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT...AND DEEPENING THROUGH THE DAY ON
MONDAY ALONG WITH IMPROVING UPGLIDE...THEN MAXIMIZING WITH THE WAVES
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE MON NIGHT INTO TUE TO CREATE THE HIGHEST POP.
EXPECT A SMALLER THAN CLIMO DIURNAL RANGE ON MAXES/MINS GIVEN THE
ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS AND ABOVE CLIMO POP.
A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT COULD PROVIDE SOME LIMITED DRYING FROM
THE N TUE NIGHT INTO WED...ALONG WITH MORE STABLE PROFILES. DEEP
LAYER SW FLOW WILL THEN RETURN WED NIGHT AND THU AS HEIGHTS FALL
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THIS COULD BE THE PRELUDE TO A
VERY ACTIVE LATE WEEK IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE AND PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...DESPITE MOIST SWLY FLOW IT APPEARS VFR CIGS FROM MID-HIGH
CLOUDS IS MOST LIKELY TO HOLD ON THRU THE MRNG...WITH THE GUIDANCE
PROGGING RESTRICTIONS ALREADY PROVING TOO LOW...AND NO SUCH CIGS
SEEN UPSTREAM. FEW-SCT LOW VFR CLOUDS MAY BE SEEN AT TIMES. MAIN
STORY FOR THE DAY TODAY IS COLD FROPA PRECEDED BY CONVECTION.
DISCRETE OR LOOSELY ORGANIZED CELLS MAY DEVELOP BY MIDDAY...WITH
CHANCES WARRANTING A PROB30. THE BEST CHANCES WILL COME MID TO
LATE AFTN AS THE FRONT ARRIVES BRINGING THE BEST FORCING. CU BASES
SHOULD GENERALLY FORM ABOVE THE VFR THRESHOLD AWAY FROM ANY TS. TS
TAKING A DIRECT HIT ON THE FIELD WOULD LIKELY BRING BRIEF IFR VSBY.
WITH BRISK MIDLEVEL FLOW TAPPED BY MIXING...WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT TS WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG TO
PERHAPS EVEN SEVERE GUSTS. PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISH BY SUNSET WITH
WSHFT TO NW OCCURRING MID-LATE EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...VFR OVERNIGHT WITH SFC DEWPTS BEING LOW ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE FOG...THOUGH IT WILL BE WISE TO MONITOR UPSTREAM OVER
AL/GA FOR DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS THAT COULD POTENTIALLY ADVECT
IN BY DAWN. TRENDS GENERALLY AS AT KCLT BUT WITH CONVECTION
ARRIVING EARLIER. LATEST MESO GUIDANCE BRINGS CONVECTION INTO THE
MTNS AS SOON AS 13-14Z. USED TEMPO GROUPS DURING TIME OF PEAK TSRA
CHANCES TO MENTION PSBL VSBY RESTRICTIONS. IFR CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION IF A SITE TAKES A DIRECT HIT FROM A TS...BUT FEEL MORE
CONFIDENT JUST MENTIONING MVFR. WINDS WILL SWING TO NW AFTER THE
FROPA...MID AFTN AT KAVL BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER SUNSET IN THE
PIEDMONT.
OUTLOOK...A DRY AIR MASS WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL SURGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS ON MONDAY AND MAY LINGER INTO THE MIDDLE TO LATE WORK WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
07-13Z 13-19Z 19-01Z 01-06Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 94% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% MED 68% MED 67% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 87% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 83% HIGH 86% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% MED 70% MED 67% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% MED 68% HIGH 89% HIGH 96%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
358 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...CONVECTION WEST OF THE
BORDER CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS FARTHER EAST THIS EARLY
MORNING. THIS IS ALL IN PART OF AN UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT HELPED
FIRE OFF CONVECTION ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRE LATE YESTERDAY
EVENING...CONTINUING TO PUSH FARTHER EAST ITSELF. LIGHT RAIN IS
CURRENTLY FALLING OUT OF THE CIRRUS SHIELD FROM THIS CLUSTERS OF
STORMS. TIMING OF THE STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE BORDER REMAINS
SLOWER AS MUCH DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO GET ENTRAINED INTO THE
SYSTEMS. EVEN THE HRRR HAS SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE
STORMS...BUT CONTINUES TO BRING THEM THROUGH LATER THIS EARLY
MORNING...WITH THE TEXAS TECH WRF HANDLING IT WELL. AT THIS
TIME...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED FROM THESE STORMS...BUT
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
CHANGING FOCUS TO THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY CUTTING
THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD
TODAY. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASED PWATS OF 1.5-1.7 INCHES
AND ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM E-SE MOVING MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVES...SHOULD
LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. DIFFERENCES
REMAIN WITH THE HRRR AND TT-WRF IN RESPECT WITH RAIN CHANCES IN
THE AFTN ESPECIALLY OUT WEST. THE TT-WRF CONTINUES CHANCES
/SIMILAR TO THE GLOBAL MODELS/ WHILE HRRR ENDS CONVECTION TOWARD
THE LATE MORNING AS IT GETS A BIT MORE STABLE. THE LATTER WOULD
ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM UP WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR INCREASING CAPE
AND INSTABILITY FOR REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTN/EVNG. THE CIRRUS
SHIELD MAY BE A BIG INHIBITOR OF THE TEMPS INCREASING...BUT WITH
ANOTHER VORT LOBE ENTERING THE REGION...AND INCREASING FLOW FROM
THE APPROACHING UPPER JET...TEMPERATURES AT THE SFC MAY NOT NEED
TO WARM MUCH AS THE MIDLEVELS WOULD BE COOL ENOUGH. WITH ALL
THAT SAID...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WESTERN ZONES...WITH LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS BEING THE
BIGGER THREAT...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE.
CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE HEADING LATE
IN THE NIGHT...WITH SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. FOR TEMPERATURES...CONTINUED MILD AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 ACROSS THE EAST AND IN THE
MID 80S ACROSS THE WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...PLENTIFUL MOISTURE REMAINS
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A BRIEF DRY SPELL TAKES PLACE. AREA REMAINS IN
WSW FLOW ALOFT WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND LIMITED IF ANY AFTERNOON
CAP. GOOD SURFACE FORCING/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
MORNING. ERGO...WILL GO WITH MODERATE POPS THROUGH SUNDAY ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAY...WITH ACTIVITY WANING IN THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE PICKING UP SOME TOWARD THE COASTAL AREAS.
THERE COULD BE A BRIEF QUIET PERIOD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS MODELS ALL
CONCUR ON PUSHING BEST MOISTURE TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...PRETTY POTENT SUB-TROPICAL JET IMPACTS AREA (LEFT FRONT
QUAD) ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...WITH MOISTURE RETURNING
(NEARLY 2 INCH PWATS). THUS...ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF RAIN. ALTHOUGH
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR A SOME
STRONG STORMS...WITH MAYBE EVEN A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SEVERE STORM OR
TWO SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING (SEE SWODY3 FOR MORE DETAILS).
TIMING OF JET MAY LIMIT SEVERE CONCERN IF IMPACTS ARE MAINLY AFTER
06Z ON 4/13. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SATURDAY
AS IF ENOUGH RAIN OCCURS OVER LARGE ENOUGH AREA FLOODING ISSUES MAY
ARISE.
LOOKS LIKE A DRY PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE RAIN CHANCES PICK UP
AGAIN ESPECIALLY MID WEEK WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. GENERALLY
FOLLOWED THE SUPERBLEND WITH POPS...HOWEVER FEEL POPS ON TUESDAY MAY
BE A TAD OVER-DONE AT THIS TIME AS MOISTURE MAY BE A BIT MORE
LIMITED THAN ONE WOULD WANT (PLENTY OF TIME TO ADJUST). BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN APPEAR TO BE THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONT COMES DOWN ON
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. DRIER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT
(COOLER TOO)...AND FOR NOW DID NOT MENTION RAIN IN FOR FRIDAY (DAY
8) POPS. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES AFTER DAY
3 (USED SUPERBLEND FOR THESE). FOR TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...STAYED WITH THE COOLER MOS NUMBERS BUT DID BLEND A BIT TOO
BUT RAIN-COOLED AIR AND CLOUDS WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING TOO MUCH THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 80 70 81 72 82 / 50 30 60 30 50
VICTORIA 78 68 79 69 81 / 60 30 70 40 70
LAREDO 86 68 83 71 87 / 50 50 50 50 30
ALICE 81 69 82 71 84 / 50 40 70 30 50
ROCKPORT 80 71 80 71 80 / 50 20 60 30 50
COTULLA 79 67 81 68 84 / 50 40 70 50 50
KINGSVILLE 81 70 83 72 85 / 50 30 60 30 50
NAVY CORPUS 80 71 81 72 81 / 40 20 60 30 50
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
CB/85...SHORT TERM
GW/86...LONG TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1147 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
40
&&
.AVIATION...
AT 04Z THE COLD FRONT WAS NEAR A LINE FROM KTRL TO KTPL. THE TEXAS
TECH WRF HAS DONE A DECENT JOB IN DEPICTING THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT
THIS EVENING AND THE RAINFALL COVERAGE. THE MODEL PUSHES THE FRONT
INTO KCLL AND KUTS BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z...AND THEN THROUGH KCXO
BETWEEN 08Z AND 10Z...THE METRO HOUSTON AIRPORTS BETWEEN 10Z AND
12Z...AND THEN THROUGH KGLS AT THE COAST BETWEEN 13Z AND 16Z.
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AT 0430Z. THE MODEL FORECASTS THIS LINE TO MOVE
THROUGH TO THE COAST...ALTHOUGH AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO METRO
HOUSTON THE RAINFALL COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO MOVE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON FRIDAY. AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT KCXO
AND KIAH TO THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES MAY
LINGER OVER THE TERMINALS FROM KIAH TO THE COAST THROUGH ABOUT
03Z.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATE FOR RAIN CHANCES.
DISCUSSION...
WILL RAISE POPS OVERNIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. LATEST HRRR IS
MATCHING UP WELL WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ON THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT COUPLED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO
THE STATE SHOULD YIELD HIGHER POPS THROUGH 15Z FRI. NEW ZONES OUT
BY 1015 PM. 43
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 858 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015/
UPDATE...
SEE EVENING UPDATE.
DISCUSSION...
AT 8 PM...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SPRINGFIELD MO TO PARIS TO
SAN ANGELO. A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM TEXARKANA TO WACO
TO A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WEST OF LAREDO. SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPED
ALONG THE PRE FRONTAL TROUGH AND HAVE THUS FAR REMAINED JUST NORTH
AND WEST OF THE HGX CWA. MODELS HAVE BEEN WAY TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH
RAINFALL THIS EVENING AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE 18Z TEXAS TECH
WRF SINCE IT INITIALIZED BEST. 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES HAVE
GONE UP TO 1.50 INCHES AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS LESS CAPPED THAN LAST
EVENING. SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW SOME DRY AIR BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB.
THE COLD FRONT IS SURGING SOUTH AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS WHILE THE EASTERN PART OF THE FRONT IS MOVING MORE
SLUGGISHLY. THE DILEMMA FOR THE NIGHT IS FAR SOUTH THE FRONT MOVES
AND ITS EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES. THE TEXAS TECH
WRF KEEPS THINGS RELATIVELY DRY OVERNIGHT AS THE CONVECTION PUSHES
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE STATE. STILL FEEL THERE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO GENERATE A
FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND WILL LEAVE POPS AS THEY
ARE. A S/WV ON WATER VAPOR WILL APPROACH SE TX FRIDAY MORNING AND
FEEL SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY MID MORNING. MIN TEMPS
ARE A TOUGH CALL AND WILL BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON THE FRONTAL
POSITION. SINCE THE EASTERN PART OF THE FRONT IS MOVING
SLOWER...FEEL THE FRONT WILL HAVE TROUBLE CLEARING THE CWA.
CURRENT MIN TEMPS LOOK GOOD BASED ON WHERE THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BE AT 12Z FRIDAY. TWEAKED SKY GRIDS TO MATCH CURRENT OBS
OTHERWISE WILL LEAVE CURRENT FCST AS IS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
40
AVIATION...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SINK INTO SE TX FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT.
THE MODELS DIFFERED ON THE FRONTAL TIMING AND ON COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DECIDED TO GO WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE
RAP...NAM...AND GFS. WITH THIS IN MIND...THINK THAT MVFR IS FAIRLY
CERTAIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE INLAND COUNTIES SOMETIME BETWEEN 03Z
AND 09Z. MVFR CONDITIONS HAD ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER KLBX AND KGLS
AT 23Z. THINK THAT WITH THE END OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE AS THE FRONT REACHES INTO THE
KCLL AND KUTS AREAS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CHANCES OF RAIN
WILL INCREASE OVER THE METRO HOUSTON SITES AND SOUTHWARD AFTER MID
MORNING AND THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 62 73 64 77 66 / 60 30 20 60 60
HOUSTON (IAH) 69 77 67 79 68 / 40 60 30 60 60
GALVESTON (GLS) 72 78 69 76 70 / 30 60 30 60 50
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
434 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR WEDGE OF STABLE AIR WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL THEN SWEEP
THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAY TODAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...
WEDGE FRONT REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING FROM
NORTH-CENTRAL NC THROUGH NEW RIVER VALLEY AND THEN UP THE
VIRGINIA-WEST VIRGINIA BORDER. LOWEST VISIBILITIES ARE ALONG
SOUTHERN BORDER IN NORTHERN NC AND SOUTHSIDE VA...AND IN
COORDINATION WITH WFO RAH ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THOSE
AREAS THROUGH 9 AM. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN LIFTING NORTH
QUICKLY AROUND SUNRISE OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER...AND SO MAY END UP
CANCELING SLIGHTLY EARLY.
OTHERWISE WE ARE WATCHING LINES OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...AND THERE ARE A FEW AREAS OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NOW
OUT AHEAD OF THESE...FROM UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND A FEW IN ERN
KENTUCKY. HRRR AND HIRES WRF ARW SEEM TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON THIS
AND TIME OF ARRIVAL IN WESTERN PART OF CWA...MAINLY BETWEEN 14Z
AND 15Z...SO DELAYED LIKELY POPS UNTIL THEN...WITH SOME LOW CHC
POPS STARTING AROUND 11Z IN CASE ANYTHING CONTINUES TO POP OUT
AHEAD. ALREADY GETTING SOME VERY LOW INSTABILITY VALUES IN FAR
WEST.
MOST HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE BREAKS THE LINE UP SOMEWHAT AS IT
MOVES INTO WESTERN SLOPES...ALTHOUGH SOME SCATTERED CELLS DO MAKE
IT THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...THEN THE LINE TRIES TO REFORM
EAST OF BLUE RIDGE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THINK HRRR MAY BE A
LITTLE TOO FAST WITH THE TIMING SHOWING EVERYTHING EAST OF CWA BY
22Z...BUT IT MAY NOT BE TOO FAR OFF. STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST
HOW STRONG THIS LINE WILL GET BEFORE GETTING EAST OF THE
AREA...WITH INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT LIMITED YET SHEAR QUITE STRONG.
SHOULD BE GOOD FORCING WITH FRONT HOWEVER...SO SLIGHT RISK FROM
MTV TO LYH AND POINTS EAST LOOKS REASONABLE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS
BEING PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN QLCS TYPE OF MODE EXPECTED. HAIL SHOULD
BE BE MINIMAL GIVEN LIMITED LOW TO MODEST INSTABILITY. KEPT POPS
LOW END OF CATEGORICAL ALL THE WAY THROUGH CWA...AS MOST LOCATIONS
REALLY SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A BRIEF SHOWER...BUT IT`S POSSIBLE LINE
COULD BREAK UP ENOUGH TO WHERE WE WILL NEED TO LOWER POPS IN
CENTRAL PART OF CWA BEFORE LINE REFORMS. ITS ALSO QUITE POSSIBLE
THAT THE LINE DOES NOT GET ITS ACT TOGETHER AGAIN UNTIL IT MAKES
IT EAST OF THE CWA...AND THUS LIMITED SEVERE WX
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IF THIS ENDS UP PUSHING THROUGH A LITTLE
FASTER.
CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE QUICKLY BY LATE AFT IN WEST AND EARLY
EVENING IN EAST...WITH A FEW LINGERING LOW CLOUDS IN WESTERN
SLOPES...BUT LATER ON OVERNIGHT MORE COMPLETE CLEARING EXPECTED
WITH NW WINDS 10-15 MPH.
WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON TEMPS TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND TRIED TO
SHOW SOME COOLING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND LINE OF CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON...PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT FRIDAY...
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST OF OUR REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
A LARGE 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY
AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A
MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN BRISK NW WINDS DURING THE DAY
AND WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IT WILL FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE
SPRING THAN RECENT DAYS...AT LEAST IN THOSE AREAS THAT ESCAPED THE
WEDGE. HIGHS WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL CLIMO NORMS FROM NEAR 60
FAR NW TO NEAR 70 FAR SE. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST ON
SATURDAY AND SHOULD BE PARKED ALMOST OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
DECENT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS THAT WILL CERTAINLY YIELD SOME LOWS IN
THE 30S IN THE COOLER VALLEYS. WIDELY SCATTERED FROST MAY BE A
POSSIBILITY. HIGH SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH
ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE DAY AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND TEMPS REACH LEVELS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. MONDAY LOOKS
TO BE A TRANSITION DAY AS A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
EMERGE FROM THE GULF COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHEAST FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME EVIDENT WITH INCREASNG CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY AND POPS RISING TO CHANCE BY MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...
OVERALL PATTERN WILL AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY MEAN 5H TROFFINESS
ACROSS THE EASTERN ROCKIES AS THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SW OPENS UP AND
RATHER FLAT FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EAST BENEATH PASSING WAVES WELL TO
THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A VERY MOIST OVERRUNNING TYPE SW FLOW BY
MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT
EMERGES INTO THE PLAINS BY DAY7. APPEARS DRIEST PERIODS WILL BE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL DIPPING
INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TO THE SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER
WEAK IMPULSES EJECTING SE ALONG THE BOUNDARY LIKELY TO PRODUCE SOME
SHOWER COVERAGE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT BEFORE THE LARGER
SWATH OF DEEPER MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN NE LATER TUESDAY WHEN WILL
HAVE HIGHER CHANCE POPS. WEAK WEDGE LOOKS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THEN
ERODE DURING THURSDAY AS THE RESIDUAL BACKDOOR FRONT STARTS TO LIFT
BACK NE AS WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE STRONGER COLD FRONT TO THE WEST.
THIS LIKELY THE PERIOD OF BETTER RAIN CHANCES ESPCLY BY THURSDAY WITH
DEEPER PWATS ARRIVING...AND PERHAPS MORE INSTABILITY WITH THE WARM
FRONT AROUND SO MAINLY HIGH CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
AFTER A COOL START WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S EARLY MONDAY...EXPECT
MAINLY UNIFORM TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK PENDING DEGREE OF INSOLATION EACH DAY AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 155 AM EDT FRIDAY...
WEDGE CONTINUES TO KEEP MUCH OF AREA SOCKED IN WITH IFR CIGS...AND
VSBYS HAVE BEEN UP AND DOWN SOME. ONLY AIRPORTS NOT IMPACTED ARE
BLF AND LWB...AND STILL THINK LWB MAY SEEM SOME PERIODS OF IFR
OVERNIGHT AS MID DECK CLEARS OUT...BUT SINCE CIRRUS AHEAD OF NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM CLOSE ON IT`S HEALS THIS MAY NOT LAST LONG OR
BOTTOM OUT AT LIFR. OTHERWISE AREAS WITHIN THE WEDGE...NAMELY
LYH/ROA/DAN/BCB...WILL SEE IFR-LIFR CIGS AND VARYING VSBYS ALL
NIGHT.
FOR FRIDAY...JUST AHEAD OF FRONT BY MID MORNING IFR WEDGE
MAY BRIEFLY ERODE BUT THEN FRONTAL CONVECTION SHOULD BRING MVFR
CIGS BY MID TO LATE MORNING WEST AND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
EAST...WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS. A MORE SOLID LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT APPEARS MOST LIKELY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...WITH A LESSER THREAT TO THE WEST SINCE CONVECTION
SHOULD BE DYING AS IT ARRIVES ON WESTERN SLOPES. WINDS WILL GUST
FROM THE SW AFTER WEDGE ERODES SOON AFTER SUNRISE MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH SUSTAINED 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS ALL AREAS.
HIGHER POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS...WHICH AGAIN WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO
IMPACT LYH AND DAN. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW
10-12KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS IN MOUNTAINS DURING LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...WITH RETURN TO VFR BY EVENING.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
PROLONGED PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD VFR CONTINUES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME RETURN MOISTURE AND
SHOWERS WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR COULD RETURN BY LATE MONDAY BUT
BETTER CHANCES FOR MVFR OR LOCAL IFR BY TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM WEST.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ043-044-
058-059.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ004>006.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NF/SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...PC
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...NF/RAB/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1124 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE LOCAL AREA TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON
SATURDAY...AND THEN SLIDES SOUTH AND THEN EAST OF THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN
ITS WAKE FOR MIDWEEK. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...WPC HAS ANALYZED THE FRONT OVER THE OCEAN
WATERS MUCH FARTHER NORTH AT 12Z THAN 09Z. THIS MAY HAVE PROMPTED
THE FORMATION OF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OCEAN.
THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...AND IT TAKES IT
WELL OUT TO SEA. CONFIDENCE LOW THAT THE WARM
FRONT WILL JUMP NORTH INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH COLD AIR
DAMMING IN PLACE AND WEAK LLJ OVERHEAD. BETTER CHANCE FOR WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AS LLJ APPROACHES.
THE HRRR ALSO KEEPS IT MAINLY DRY FOR THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT
19Z...WHEN EXTREME WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA WILL START TO SEE
THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL PA
AND NY MOVE IN. CURRENT TIMING WOULD BRING THIS LINE INTO THOSE
AREA BETWEEN 17-18Z. SO...ADDED DRIZZLE TO THE FORECAST UNTIL THE
LINE GETS INTO THE AREA...WHICH COULD HAPPEN A COUPLE OF HOURS
THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND
UPDATE WITH NEXT FORECAST UPDATE.
DON`T THINK THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY...DUE TO
THE TRACK OF THE PARENT LOW PRES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND SE
CANADA TODAY...BUT SHOULD AT LEAST MAKE IT INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE POSITION OF THE FRONT WILL WREAK HAVOC WITH
TEMPS...ESPECIALLY N OF NYC AND LI.
NO BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER JUST YET...AND HAVE INCREASED CLOUD
COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COULD MEAN HIGHS WILL BE LOWER
THAN FORECAST. AGAIN...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. HOWEVER...IF
PART OF THE AREA BECOMES WARM SECTORED...THERE COULD BE SOME
CLEARING ACROSS N AND W OF NYC THIS AFTN WHICH COULD RESULT IN
HIGHER HIGHS THAN FORECAST WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND 15C. THIS COULD
ALSO RESULT IN HIGHER GUSTS AND ALSO MORE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. IF THIS MATERIALIZES...THERE COULD BE GUSTY WINDS WITH
ANY TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FROPA LATE THIS AFTN/EVE.
ALTHOUGH THE SPC`S DAY 1 NO LONGER HAS AREAS IN AND AROUND NYC IN
A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS...WILL LEAVE THE MENTION OF
GUSTY WINDS IN THE HWO DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE AMOUNT OF
CLEARING AND SUBSEQUENT INSTABILITY.
CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH ACROSS LI AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER WITH THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
PCPN EXPECTED TO END DURING MID TO LATE EVENING WITH HIGH PRES
BUILDING IN AND A NW FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND THE COLD FROPA. UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING ALTHOUGH
DOWNSLOPING FLOW SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWERS N AND W OF THE AREA.
GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP SAT MORNING WITH CAA CONTINUING...ALTHOUGH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL FINALLY RETURN.
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40 RANGE...EXCEPT
AROUND 50 IN THE NYC METRO AREA AND RIGHT AROUND NORMAL LEVELS ON
SAT GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
RIDGING BUILDING IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY SLIDES EAST
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. DRY BUT SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED
IN THE WAA RETURN FLOW.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SUN WITH HIGH IN THE LOWER 60S-65 AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH OF THE REGION. LATE DAY SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT
LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY...WHICH SHOULD KNOCK COASTAL TEMPS BACK
INTO THE 50S IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
OFFSHORE AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPS ACROSS THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NE NJ SHOULD MAKE A RUN WELL INTO THE 60S TO
NEAR 70...WHILE A BREEZY SSW FLOW SHOULD LIMIT TEMPS TO THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ALONG THE SOUTH AND EAST COASTAL AREAS.
MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON A SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND PIVOTING
THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A SLOWER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH A BIT MORE GULF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO. HAVE INCREASED CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A RESULT.
THEREAFTER...MODELS CONTINUING TO SIGNAL A DEVELOPING WESTERN TROUGH
GRADUALLY SLIDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE RIDGING BUILDS UP
THE EAST COAST FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK. BUT SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
EXIST IN THE DETAILS. EXPECT MODEL HANDLING OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE
CENTRAL US TROUGH/EAST COAST RIDGING TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS IS THE CASE IN A BLOCKY SPRINGTIME PATTERN. OVERALL
EXPECTATION IS SLOWER MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM IN THIS PATTERN...SO HAVE
TRENDED SLOWER WITH POPS TILL LATE WEEK FOR A POTENT SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT TO BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON EVOLUTION OF THIS
PATTERN...BUT GENERALLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING
AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH...AND A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. THE LATTER OF WHICH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE WARM IS SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH 18Z
TO 20Z.
WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE TODAY WITH
CIGS IMPROVING SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND MOVES THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND FIRST PART OF TONIGHT.
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER EMBEDDED WITH THESE SHOWERS....BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.
ESE-SE WINDS 5-10 KT WILL BECOME S/SW 10-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
W WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO
VFR...MAINLY AFTER 03Z.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY TODAY FOR CHANGING CIG AND
VSBY FLIGHT CATEGORIES. TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 2-3
HOURS.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY TODAY FOR CHANGING CIG AND
VSBY FLIGHT CATEGORIES. TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 2-3
HOURS.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY TODAY FOR CHANGING CIG AND
VSBY FLIGHT CATEGORIES. TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 2-3
HOURS.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY TODAY FOR CHANGING CIG AND
VSBY FLIGHT CATEGORIES. TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 2-3
HOURS.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY TODAY FOR CHANGING CIG AND
VSBY FLIGHT CATEGORIES. TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 2-3
HOURS.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY TODAY FOR CHANGING CIG AND
VSBY FLIGHT CATEGORIES. TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 2-3
HOURS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT PROBABLE.
.SUNDAY-MONDAY...VFR. SW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
.TUESDAY...VFR
&&
.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY
FOR SEAS...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE MARGINAL WIND GUSTS AS WELL.
SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS INTO SAT...BUT HAVE HELD
OFF EXTENDING THE ADVSY FOR NOW WHICH FITS WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES.
DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT ALREADY BEING OBSERVED ALONG OCEAN
WATERS...AND EXPECTED TO WORK ACROSS ALL WATERS THROUGH MORNING AS
LOW-LEVELS SATURATE. EXPECTATION IS THAT VSBY COULD DROP TO LESS
THAN 1/2 MILE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO
CLIMB OVER THE COLD WATERS. DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.
THE WATERS SURROUNDING NYC COULD SEE LATE DAY OR EARLY EVENING
TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS FRI.
SUB SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL SCA WINDS ON OCEAN WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SCA OCEAN SEAS
POSSIBLE LATE MON/MON NIGHT...LINGERING INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OF QPF EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH LOCAL AMTS 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER TSTMS IN THE NYC METRO AREA. LOW POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR NUISANCE URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WOULD BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE HEAVIER AMTS.
DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. NO WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-
338-340-345-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...24/NV
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...24/NV
HYDROLOGY...24/NV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1100 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON..BRINGING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY DRY AND BRISK
CONDITIONS OPEN THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SUNNY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1100 AM EDT...THE FORECAST AREA IS STUCK IN A DAMP AND
CLOUDY AIR MASS WITH THE WARM FRONT STILL SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
REGION. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE 50S OVER THE NRN CATSKILLS ANS SCHOHARIE CTY. ANOTHER
BATCH OF SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING ACROSS
CNTRL NY AND INTO THE WRN DACKS. WE REDUCED THE POPS FOR A FEW
HOURS EXCEPT OVER THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE FCST AREA. WE HAVE
FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THE LATEST 3KM-HRRR REF TRENDS.
THE 12Z KALY SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL PRE WARM
FRONTAL MARINE-LIKE INVERSION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER /H925-H850/.
THIS LID WILL LIKELY ERODE WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THEN THE COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD WRN NY
WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW. TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE IN THE LOWER TO M30S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN VT AND THE NE BERKS. MOST LOCATIONS ARE IN
THE U30S TO M40S...ASIDE FOR THE SUNNY BREAKS. AS 925-850 HPA
WINDS VEER INTO THE SOUTHWEST...AND SOME DOWNSLOPING FROM THE
CATSKILLS CONTRIBUTES TO SOME WARMING/DRYING. THIS CAN BE SEEN IN
THE MESONET OBS.
EVENTUALLY...SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECEDE
AND ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT INSTABILITY SHOULD
REMAIN RATHER WEAK...AND ALSO THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
PASS MAINLY TO OUR N AND W. HIGHER RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT REMAINS
GENERALLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. WILL INDICATE MAINLY HIGH CHC
POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
MAX TEMPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED INTO THE 50S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT FOR SOME U40S OVER THE SRN DACKS. ALSO SOME
LOWER 60S WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN-ERN CATSKILLS...AND THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY...IF THE DOWNSLOPING AND SUNNY BREAK CONTINUE TO
OCCUR.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING
INTO THE EARLY PM AT 15-25 MPH...ESP ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE TACONICS/GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT
PASSES...EVEN STRONGER WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE SOME GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH COULD OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...EVENING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR AREAS NEAR AND
E OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. SKIES SHOULD THEN BECOME CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY...BEFORE CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INCREASE
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES. SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR LESS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S.
SATURDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
CLOUDS...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN/SNOW...MAINLY
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN VT. SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH PASSES. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER
STRONG THROUGH SATURDAY AS DEEP MIXING OCCURS. EXPECT WIND GUSTS
TO REACH 35-45 MPH IN MANY AREAS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...STRONGEST IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT MAY ONLY REACH THE 30S.
SAT NT-SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SAT NT...AND SUNNY
SKIES ON SUNDAY. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS WILL BE RATHER
COOL...GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. SUN AFTERNOON MAXES
SHOULD BE QUITE MILD WITH LIGHT WINDS...WITH LOWER/MID 60S IN
VALLEYS AND MAINLY 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WE BEGIN THIS LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST UNDER TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
MEANWHILE...RATHER STRONG AND FAST MOVING PACIFIC ENERGY COMES
ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EJECTS OUT ONTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE...THE RETURN FLOW
COMBINING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC ENERGY WILL ALLOW DEEPER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF TO BECOME ENTRAINED ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE IMPACT FOR OUR
REGION WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVING MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
QPF FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW TRENDS OF A BIT HIGHER
AMOUNTS.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY. HOWEVER..CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY KEEP CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE COOL WITH MAINLY 50S AND LOWER 60S EXPECTED.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SURFACE TO
ALOFT WILL NOT ONLY KEEP OUR WEATHER TRANQUIL...BUT WITH THERMAL
PROFILES MODERATING AND MID APRIL SUNSHINE IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE
SPRING THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. AVERAGE HIGHS CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND PERHAPS NEAR 70F WITH FAVORABLE
DOWNSLOPING WITHIN THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE 30S ACROSS THE TERRAIN TO 40S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE CONTINUE TO OBSERVE MAINLY MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ACROSS THE
REGION WITH RESPECT TO CIGS...EXCEPT FOR KPSF WHERE SOME IFR CIGS
WILL LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. EXPECT AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF
WEATHER FOR THE REGION WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS.
REGION RADAR SHOWS ANOTHER BATCH OF CONVECTION TO MOVE ACROSS THE
TAF SITES THIS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THEN...PER THE HRRR AND 4KM SPC
WRF REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS...SEEMS THERE WILL BE A REDUCTION IN
PRECIP COVERAGE AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. LATER IN THE
DAY...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH A CHC-SCT CONVECTION ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. FOR NOW...WE WILL PLACE A TEMPO GROUP AND MONITOR TRENDS.
FRIDAY EVENING WITH FROPA...WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT FROM THE
WESTERLY DIRECTION WITH FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE INTO KPSF WHERE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER MVFR CIGS A BIT LONGER.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TODAY DUE TO
EXPECTED WET AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AND MAINLY COOL WEATHER.
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...BRINGING RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A MILDER AIR MASS
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH MORE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY DRY AND BRISK CONDITIONS
OPEN THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. SUNNY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR
SUNDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BEFORE
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PERIODS OF RAIN...ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...WILL
OCCUR WITH THESE FEATURES TODAY.
RAINFALL AMTS OVERNIGHT GENERALLY RANGED FROM ONE QUARTER TO ONE
HALF INCH. ANOTHER ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY. THE LATEST MMEFS /ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE/
INDICATES RIVER LEVELS WILL RISE BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...WITH
SEVERAL POINTS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING ACTION STAGE. THE ONLY
POINT THAT MAY REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE IS GILBOA. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER RISES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN BANK RISES ARE POSSIBLE.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW
PASSING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE PRODUCING QPF OF
LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...FRUGIS/BGM/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...KL/BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
802 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...BRINGING RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A MILDER AIR MASS
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH MORE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY DRY AND BRISK CONDITIONS
OPEN THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. SUNNY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...SEVERAL AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN...ALONG WITH A FEW EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...CONTINUE TO
TRANSLATE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE MOST
CONCENTRATED AREA OF RAINFALL EXTENDING FROM THE SE CATSKILLS
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO NW CT.
LATEST MESONET OBS SUGGEST SLIGHT WARMING OF THE PREVIOUS
SUBFREEZING LAYER ABOVE 1200 FT...WITH ONLY A FEW SITES REMAINING
NEAR FREEZING. HAVE THEREFORE DROPPED THE FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY...AND INSTEAD REPLACED WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
FOR ISOLATED LINGERING POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN AT ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 1500 FT ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN MA.
ELSEWHERE...PERIODS OF RAIN...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER...SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 8 AM AND 11 AM FROM W TO E ACROSS THE REGION...AS
THE INITIAL LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS NORTHWARD...AND THE BETTER UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LIFT CLOSER TO THE SFC COLD FRONT REMAIN TO THE
WEST. SO A SLIGHT LULL IN PRECIP IS QUITE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. DURING THIS LULL...SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND AREAS JUST S OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AS 925-850 HPA WINDS VEER INTO THE SOUTHWEST...AND SOME
DOWNSLOPING FROM THE CATSKILLS CONTRIBUTES TO SOME WARMING/DRYING.
ELSEWHERE...THE COLD STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY PERSIST
LONGER...PERHAPS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER HUDSON VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND ALSO SE VT.
EVENTUALLY...SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECEDE
AND ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT INSTABILITY SHOULD
REMAIN RATHER WEAK...AND ALSO THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
PASS MAINLY TO OUR N AND W. HIGHER RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT REMAINS
GENERALLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. WILL INDICATE MAINLY HIGH CHC
POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
TEMPS WILL BE VERY TRICKY TODAY GIVEN THE INITIAL COLD AND STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST AGEOSTROPHIC
WINDS. HOWEVER...TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY RISE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH 50S TO LOWER 60S EXPECTED IN VALLEY AREAS FROM
ALBANY SOUTH...AND MAINLY 40S AND 50S TO THE NORTH AND ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE WARMEST AREAS MAY ULTIMATELY BE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CATSKILLS/SCHOHARIE VALLEY...ESP SHOULD ANY BREAKS
OF SUN DEVELOP. MAX TEMPS MAY REACH 60-65 OR WARMER IN THESE
AREAS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING
AT 15-25 MPH...ESP ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE TACONICS/GREENS
AND BERKSHIRES. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT PASSES...EVEN STRONGER WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE
SOME GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH COULD OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...EVENING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR AREAS NEAR AND
E OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. SKIES SHOULD THEN BECOME CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY...BEFORE CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INCREASE
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES. SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR LESS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S.
SATURDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
CLOUDS...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN/SNOW...MAINLY
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN VT. SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH PASSES. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER
STRONG THROUGH SATURDAY AS DEEP MIXING OCCURS. EXPECT WIND GUSTS
TO REACH 35-45 MPH IN MANY AREAS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...STRONGEST IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT MAY ONLY REACH THE 30S.
SAT NT-SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SAT NT...AND SUNNY
SKIES ON SUNDAY. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS WILL BE RATHER
COOL...GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. SUN AFTERNOON MAXES
SHOULD BE QUITE MILD WITH LIGHT WINDS...WITH LOWER/MID 60S IN
VALLEYS AND MAINLY 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WE BEGIN THIS LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST UNDER TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
MEANWHILE...RATHER STRONG AND FAST MOVING PACIFIC ENERGY COMES
ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EJECTS OUT ONTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE...THE RETURN FLOW
COMBINING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC ENERGY WILL ALLOW DEEPER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF TO BECOME ENTRAINED ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE IMPACT FOR OUR
REGION WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVING MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
QPF FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW TRENDS OF A BIT HIGHER
AMOUNTS.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY. HOWEVER..CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY KEEP CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE COOL WITH MAINLY 50S AND LOWER 60S EXPECTED.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SURFACE TO
ALOFT WILL NOT ONLY KEEP OUR WEATHER TRANQUIL...BUT WITH THERMAL
PROFILES MODERATING AND MID APRIL SUNSHINE IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE
SPRING THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. AVERAGE HIGHS CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND PERHAPS NEAR 70F WITH FAVORABLE
DOWNSLOPING WITHIN THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE 30S ACROSS THE TERRAIN TO 40S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE CONTINUE TO OBSERVE MAINLY MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ACROSS THE
REGION WITH RESPECT TO CIGS...EXCEPT FOR KPSF WHERE SOME IFR CIGS
WILL LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. EXPECT AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF
WEATHER FOR THE REGION WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS.
REGION RADAR SHOWS ANOTHER BATCH OF CONVECTION TO MOVE ACROSS THE
TAF SITES THIS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THEN...PER THE HRRR AND 4KM SPC
WRF REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS...SEEMS THERE WILL BE A REDUCTION IN
PRECIP COVERAGE AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. LATER IN THE
DAY...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH A CHC-SCT CONVECTION ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. FOR NOW...WE WILL PLACE A TEMPO GROUP AND MONITOR TRENDS.
FRIDAY EVENING WITH FROPA...WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT FROM THE
WESTERLY DIRECTION WITH FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE INTO KPSF WHERE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER MVFR CIGS A BIT LONGER.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TODAY DUE TO
EXPECTED WET AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AND MAINLY COOL WEATHER.
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...BRINGING RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A MILDER AIR MASS
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH MORE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY DRY AND BRISK CONDITIONS
OPEN THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. SUNNY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR
SUNDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BEFORE
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PERIODS OF RAIN...ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...WILL
OCCUR WITH THESE FEATURES TODAY.
RAINFALL AMTS OVERNIGHT GENERALLY RANGED FROM ONE QUARTER TO ONE
HALF INCH. ANOTHER ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY. THE LATEST MMEFS /ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE/
INDICATES RIVER LEVELS WILL RISE BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...WITH
SEVERAL POINTS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING ACTION STAGE. THE ONLY
POINT THAT MAY REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE IS GILBOA. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER RISES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN BANK RISES ARE POSSIBLE.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW
PASSING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE PRODUCING QPF OF
LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...FRUGIS/BGM/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...KL/BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
658 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING
MILDER TEMPS...BUT ONE LAST ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
DRY AND MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
7 AM UPDATE...SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THIS MORNING SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MID-MORNING. THE FORECAST IS
ON TRACK WITH THIS AND NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
AREA OF RAIN ASSOCD WITH 850 MB WARM FRONT AND NOSE OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS SNE EARLY THIS MORNING. HRRR HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE RAIN AND MOVES IT OUT 10-14Z AS AREA OF MID LEVEL
DRYING MOVES IN. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY
WEATHER MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS MOVE IN LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING ASSOCD WITH THE COLD
FRONT WHICH MOVES INTO W NEW ENG BY EARLY EVENING. MODELS INDICATE
MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WHERE
LOW RISK FOR ISOLD TSTMS. IN FACT...SOME OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
GIVEN PWATS INCREASING TO 1.5" AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH IS +3 SD
ABOVE CLIMO.
SFC WARM FRONT STILL BACK ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND WILL PROBABLY TAKE
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON BEFORE IT MOVES THROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN
AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG PERSISTING TODAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL
THIS MORNING...BUT WILL SHOOT UP INTO THE 50S DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT LIFTS TO THE N.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS WILL SHIFT TO THE S COAST AND
CAPE/ISLANDS THIS EVENING WHERE LOW RISK FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.
OTHERWISE EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH WIND SHIFT TO WEST.
SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER OH VALLEY WITH DRY W/NW FLOW INTO NEW ENG.
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND COLD POOL MOVES INTO SNE WHICH WILL ACT ON
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEADING TO SCT-BKN CU DEVELOPING...BUT DRY
CONDITIONS. SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S...BUT
GUSTY WEST WINDS EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* PLEASANT WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPS THRU MIDWEEK
* CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS SOMETIME MONDAY OR TUESDAY
THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE TIMING OF A
COLD FRONT MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE
GFS WITH THE FRONT...BRINGING IT THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH ABOUT 12 HOURS LATER. THIS AFFECTS
THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
POTENTIALLY AVAILABLE FOR THUNDER.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRINGING DRY
WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC BRINGING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS STATED ABOVE...THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING
A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO
THE 60S TO NEAR 70.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING DRY...SEASONABLE WEATHER TO
THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR IN STRATUS AND
PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...POSSIBLY IMPROVING
TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AWAY FROM THE S COAST. RAIN EARLY THIS
MORNING MOVES OUT BY MID MORNING FOLLOWED BY A LULL IN PRECIP.
SHOWERS REDEVELOP 18-21Z WEST AND 21-00Z EAST. LOW RISK OF
ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS...MAINLY NEAR S COAST
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. LLWS DEVELOPING AFT 21Z CAPE/ISLANDS AS
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS.
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
MVFR/IFR IN THE EVENING...IMPROVING TO VFR 03-07Z AS WINDS SHIFT
TO W. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLD TSTM EXITS THE S COAST IN THE
EVENING.
SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. W WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT
DEVELOPING.
KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TONIGHT BUT
TIMING UNCERTAIN.
KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TONIGHT BUT
TIMING UNCERTAIN.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT -SHRA SOMETIME LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...INCREASING SW WINDS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. A FEW G25 KT
POSSIBLE BUT STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL PREVENT STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT FROM MIXING DOWN. AREAS OF FOG WILL REDUCE VSBYS.
RAIN ENDS BY MID MORNING...THEN SHOWERS REDEVELOP TOWARD EVENING.
TONIGHT...FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE EVENING WITH SW WINDS BECOMING
W. SPEEDS MOSTLY BELOW SCA BUT A FEW G25 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
EVENING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND AN ISOLD TSTM EXIT
AFTER FROPA. VSBY IMPROVES WITH THE WIND SHIFT.
SATURDAY...W/NW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT...ESPECIALLY NE MA COASTAL
WATERS. SCA WILL BE NEED TO BE EXTENDED.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEAS AND WINDS
DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. WESTERLY WINDS
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND
SEAS INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS. THEN
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND DIMINISH...ALONG WITH SEAS...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NECESSARY FOR A PERIOD.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-251-
254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...BRINGING RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A MILDER AIR MASS
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH MORE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY DRY AND BRISK CONDITIONS
OPEN THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. SUNNY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...SEVERAL AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN...ALONG WITH A FEW EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...CONTINUE TO
TRANSLATE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE MOST
CONCENTRATED AREA OF RAINFALL EXTENDING FROM THE SE CATSKILLS
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO NW CT.
LATEST MESONET OBS SUGGEST SLIGHT WARMING OF THE PREVIOUS
SUBFREEZING LAYER ABOVE 1200 FT...WITH ONLY A FEW SITES REMAINING
NEAR FREEZING. HAVE THEREFORE DROPPED THE FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY...AND INSTEAD REPLACED WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
FOR ISOLATED LINGERING POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN AT ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 1500 FT ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN MA.
ELSEWHERE...PERIODS OF RAIN...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER...SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 8 AM AND 11 AM FROM W TO E ACROSS THE REGION...AS
THE INITIAL LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS NORTHWARD...AND THE BETTER UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LIFT CLOSER TO THE SFC COLD FRONT REMAIN TO THE
WEST. SO A SLIGHT LULL IN PRECIP IS QUITE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. DURING THIS LULL...SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND AREAS JUST S OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AS 925-850 HPA WINDS VEER INTO THE SOUTHWEST...AND SOME
DOWNSLOPING FROM THE CATSKILLS CONTRIBUTES TO SOME WARMING/DRYING.
ELSEWHERE...THE COLD STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY PERSIST
LONGER...PERHAPS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER HUDSON VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND ALSO SE VT.
EVENTUALLY...SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECEDE
AND ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT INSTABILITY SHOULD
REMAIN RATHER WEAK...AND ALSO THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
PASS MAINLY TO OUR N AND W. HIGHER RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT REMAINS
GENERALLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. WILL INDICATE MAINLY HIGH CHC
POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
TEMPS WILL BE VERY TRICKY TODAY GIVEN THE INITIAL COLD AND STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST AGEOSTROPHIC
WINDS. HOWEVER...TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY RISE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH 50S TO LOWER 60S EXPECTED IN VALLEY AREAS FROM
ALBANY SOUTH...AND MAINLY 40S AND 50S TO THE NORTH AND ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE WARMEST AREAS MAY ULTIMATELY BE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CATSKILLS/SCHOHARIE VALLEY...ESP SHOULD ANY BREAKS
OF SUN DEVELOP. MAX TEMPS MAY REACH 60-65 OR WARMER IN THESE
AREAS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING
AT 15-25 MPH...ESP ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE TACONICS/GREENS
AND BERKSHIRES. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT PASSES...EVEN STRONGER WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE
SOME GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH COULD OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...EVENING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR AREAS NEAR AND
E OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. SKIES SHOULD THEN BECOME CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY...BEFORE CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INCREASE
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES. SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR LESS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S.
SATURDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
CLOUDS...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN/SNOW...MAINLY
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN VT. SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH PASSES. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER
STRONG THROUGH SATURDAY AS DEEP MIXING OCCURS. EXPECT WIND GUSTS
TO REACH 35-45 MPH IN MANY AREAS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...STRONGEST IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT MAY ONLY REACH THE 30S.
SAT NT-SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SAT NT...AND SUNNY
SKIES ON SUNDAY. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS WILL BE RATHER
COOL...GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. SUN AFTERNOON MAXES
SHOULD BE QUITE MILD WITH LIGHT WINDS...WITH LOWER/MID 60S IN
VALLEYS AND MAINLY 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WE BEGIN THIS LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST UNDER TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
MEANWHILE...RATHER STRONG AND FAST MOVING PACIFIC ENERGY COMES
ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EJECTS OUT ONTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE...THE RETURN FLOW
COMBINING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC ENERGY WILL ALLOW DEEPER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF TO BECOME ENTRAINED ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE IMPACT FOR OUR
REGION WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVING MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
QPF FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW TRENDS OF A BIT HIGHER
AMOUNTS.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY. HOWEVER..CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY KEEP CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE COOL WITH MAINLY 50S AND LOWER 60S EXPECTED.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SURFACE TO
ALOFT WILL NOT ONLY KEEP OUR WEATHER TRANQUIL...BUT WITH THERMAL
PROFILES MODERATING AND MID APRIL SUNSHINE IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE
SPRING THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. AVERAGE HIGHS CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND PERHAPS NEAR 70F WITH FAVORABLE
DOWNSLOPING WITHIN THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE 30S ACROSS THE TERRAIN TO 40S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COMBINATION OF MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT AS WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD WITH OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT
DISCUSSION...LLWS WILL BECOME AN ISSUE AS EVIDENT IN THE LATEST
VWP FROM THE RADAR AND HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION IN THE LATEST
FORECASTS OVERNIGHT.
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY...PER THE HRRR AND 4KM SPC WRF
REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS...SEEMS THERE WILL BE A REDUCTION IN PRECIP
COVERAGE AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. LATER IN THE DAY...COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH A CHC-SCT CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
FOR NOW...WE WILL PLACE A PROB30 AND MONITOR TRENDS. FLIGHT
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO AT LEAST MVFR THROUGH THE DAY.
FRIDAY EVENING WITH FROPA...WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT FROM THE
WESTERLY DIRECTION WITH FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE INTO KPSF WHERE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER MVFR CIGS A BIT LONGER.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TODAY DUE TO
EXPECTED WET AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AND MAINLY COOL WEATHER.
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...BRINGING RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A MILDER AIR MASS
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH MORE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY DRY AND BRISK CONDITIONS
OPEN THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. SUNNY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR
SUNDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BEFORE
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PERIODS OF RAIN...ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...WILL
OCCUR WITH THESE FEATURES TODAY.
RAINFALL AMTS OVERNIGHT GENERALLY RANGED FROM ONE QUARTER TO ONE
HALF INCH. ANOTHER ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY. THE LATEST MMEFS /ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE/
INDICATES RIVER LEVELS WILL RISE BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...WITH
SEVERAL POINTS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING ACTION STAGE. THE ONLY
POINT THAT MAY REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE IS GILBOA. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER RISES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN BANK RISES ARE POSSIBLE.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW
PASSING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE PRODUCING QPF OF
LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...FRUGIS/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...KL/BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
952 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.UPDATE...
ALL IS WELL WITH THE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
TODAY WITH NUMEROUS SITES ALREADY VERIFYING BY 13Z THIS MORNING. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY EASE 18-00Z AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
FROM THE STRAITS THIS MORNING INTO WESTERN QUEBEC THIS EVENING. IN
ADDITION, A VERY COMPACT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES OVER MN WILL IMPINGE ON THE
RESIDENT LOW PRESSURE FIELD BY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ACTUALLY
REDUCE THE PGF FROM WEST TO EAST AS IT SUPPRESSES THE ANTICYCLONE TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST. A ROUND OF EVENING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THIS WAVE TRANSLATES FROM MINNEAPOLIS THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN 00-03Z.
IN THE VERY NEAR TERM, HOWEVER, POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER END WIND GUSTS
REMAINS A CONCERN THROUGH ABOUT 18Z. WHILE THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SETUP
FAVORS WIDESPREAD GUSTS AROUND 40 KTS, ACTIVE CONVECTION WITHIN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MAY LEAD TO MORE EFFICIENT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT. OBSERVATIONS WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO
ENSURE GUSTS DON`T GET OUT OF HAND, BUT ATTM THERE ARE NO IMMEDIATE
PLANS TO ALTER THE INHERITED WIND ADVISORY. A FRESH ROUND OF
GRIDS/ZONES WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 651 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT...SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE INCREASED
RAPIDLY. WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 KNOTS OCCURRED JUST BEHIND THE FRONT
BEFORE SETTLING BACK DOWN AROUND 30-35 KNOTS. LOOK FOR PEAK GUSTS TO
RAMP UP AGAIN THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS DEEP
MIXING OCCURS. GUSTS REACHING OR EXCEEDING 40 KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST
WILL BE EXPECTED BEFORE DROPPING OFF THIS EVENING. CIGS WILL START
OFF MVFR BEFORE LIFTING INTO LOW VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON.
FOR DTW...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. SOME
GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 KNOTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. CIGS WILL START OFF
MVFR BUT AS MIXING DEPTHS RISE SO WILL THE CIGS...REACHING LOW END
VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILINGS AOB 5KFT INTO THE AFTERNOON...LOW AFTER 20Z.
* HIGH IN EXCEEDING CROSSWIND THRESHOLDS FROM 260-280 DEGREES
FRIDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 349 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH PULLED THE ACTIVE WARM FRONT UP
THROUGH SE MI LATE THURSDAY IS NOW LOCATED OVER NORTHERN LOWER MI.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NE THROUGH THE DAY. LINGERING
CONVECTION OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB SHOULD LIFT OUT OF THE
AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS AREA HAS SPLIT FROM THE COLD
FRONTAL CONVECTION LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH OVER IN/OH...WHICH HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED BY THE HRRR FOR THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO POP UP IN THE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS BUT NOT MORE THAN
A CHANCE POP FOR ANY LOCATION.
AS THE CONVECTION BEGINS TO WANE...ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD WINDS.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT HAS BEEN ABLE TO GUST UP TO
25 KNOTS OVER SW LOWER MI. THIS WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE STATE OVER US
PRIOR TO 09Z. WINDS WILL VEER TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND
INCREASE FURTHER AS THE TIGHT E/W PRESSURE GRADIENT LIFTS UP INTO SE
MI. THESE POST FRONTAL WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING TO AROUND 35 KNOTS
THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS IA/IL/MO WITH AN INITIAL POP RIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT CLOSER TO 40 KNOTS. MODELS SHOW THIS TREND CONTINUING
ACROSS SOUTHERN MI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL DIURNAL
SUPPORT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP MIXED LAYER DEVELOPING BEHIND
THE FRONT UP TO AROUND 850MB WITH STEEP LL LAPSE RATES DUE TO
IMPRESSIVE CAA BETWEEN THE SFC AND 700MB. IN THIS MIXED
LAYER...MODELS ARE SHOWING WINDS OF AROUND 50 KNOTS AS LOW AS 925MB
IN THE COLUMN PEAKING FROM 09-14Z BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING. THIS
SHOULD PRODUCE WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS AROUND 40-50 MPH AT THE SFC
THUS THE WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE DOES
REMAIN THE CHANCE OF HIGHER GUSTS REACHING THE SFC...ESPECIALLY IF A
FEW SHALLOW CONVECTIVE CELLS CAN DEVELOP AS THE LINGERING TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. AT THIS POINT WILL HOLD WITH THE ADVISORY AND ALLOW
THE NEXT SHIFT TO ASSESS TRENDS HEADING INTO THE DIURNAL CYCLE. A
SHORT FUSE HIGH WIND WARNING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SLOWLY
WANING TOWARD THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING A COMPACT
VORT MAX DIVING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING TROUGH AND TRACKING
ACROSS THE MI/OH BORDER BETWEEN ABOUT 00-06Z SATURDAY. ADDED A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THIS PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SE MI WILL BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THE COURSE OF THE
WEEKEND...ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE FCST TO BUILD FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SUPPORT A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CORE OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WILL
PUSH OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY BUT WILL STILL SUPPORT
DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S. LOW LEVEL WARMING WILL GET A BOOST ON
SUNDAY UNDER STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS. THIS AND
DECENT MIXING DEPTHS SUGGEST DAYTIME HIGHS ON SUN WILL RISE WELL
INTO THE 60S.
A FAST MOVING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO EJECT OUT OF THE
GULF OF ALASKA UPPER LOW AND TRACK ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE LATEST
GFS AND ECMWF IN BRINGING THE ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT ACROSS SE MI MON
MORNING. THE BETTER LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS ARE SHOWN TO PASS ACROSS
THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION. FORECAST AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID LEVEL
WAVE AS IT ROTATES INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WILL HOWEVER OFFER AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR INCREASED LOW LEVEL SW FLOW TO ADVECT A PLUME OF
DEEP MOISTURE INTO LOWER MI ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT. THIS WILL
REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON
MORNING.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT. DAYTIME HEATING AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL HOWEVER BOOST
MIXING DEPTHS AND SHOULD REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS INTO THE 60S
BOTH MON AND TUES. REBOUNDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION
AND DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE OF
MID APRIL SEASONAL NORMS DURING THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE AREAS TODAY. A DEEP
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON THIS
MORNING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS SYSTEM IS NOW DRIVING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. OBSERVATIONS ON THE COLD SIDE OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE IN
STRONG SUPPORT OF WIDESPREAD GALES. GALES WILL STEADILY DIMINISH
TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH WILL INFLUENCE THE REGION
DURING THE WEEKEND AND WILL SUSTAIN LIGHT WINDS ON SATURDAY. DESPITE
A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WIND ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH DEPARTS TO THE
MID ATLANTIC...STRONG STABILITY OVER THE COLD LAKES WILL KEEP WIND
SPEEDS BELOW 20 KNOTS.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ047>049-053>055-
060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ363-421-422-
441>443-462>464.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ361-362.
LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ444.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......JVC
AVIATION.....DRK
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
651 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.AVIATION...
IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT...SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE INCREASED
RAPIDLY. WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 KNOTS OCCURRED JUST BEHIND THE FRONT
BEFORE SETTLING BACK DOWN AROUND 30-35 KNOTS. LOOK FOR PEAK GUSTS TO
RAMP UP AGAIN THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS DEEP
MIXING OCCURS. GUSTS REACHING OR EXCEEDING 40 KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST
WILL BE EXPECTED BEFORE DROPPING OFF THIS EVENING. CIGS WILL START
OFF MVFR BEFORE LIFTING INTO LOW VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON.
FOR DTW...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. SOME
GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 KNOTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. CIGS WILL START OFF
MVFR BUT AS MIXING DEPTHS RISE SO WILL THE CIGS...REACHING LOW END
VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILINGS AOB 5KFT INTO THE AFTERNOON...LOW AFTER 20Z.
* HIGH IN EXCEEDING CROSSWIND THRESHOLDS FROM 260-280 DEGREES
FRIDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 349 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH PULLED THE ACTIVE WARM FRONT UP
THROUGH SE MI LATE THURSDAY IS NOW LOCATED OVER NORTHERN LOWER MI.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NE THROUGH THE DAY. LINGERING
CONVECTION OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB SHOULD LIFT OUT OF THE
AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS AREA HAS SPLIT FROM THE COLD
FRONTAL CONVECTION LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH OVER IN/OH...WHICH HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED BY THE HRRR FOR THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO POP UP IN THE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS BUT NOT MORE THAN
A CHANCE POP FOR ANY LOCATION.
AS THE CONVECTION BEGINS TO WANE...ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD WINDS.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT HAS BEEN ABLE TO GUST UP TO
25 KNOTS OVER SW LOWER MI. THIS WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE STATE OVER US
PRIOR TO 09Z. WINDS WILL VEER TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND
INCREASE FURTHER AS THE TIGHT E/W PRESSURE GRADIENT LIFTS UP INTO SE
MI. THESE POST FRONTAL WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING TO AROUND 35 KNOTS
THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS IA/IL/MO WITH AN INITIAL POP RIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT CLOSER TO 40 KNOTS. MODELS SHOW THIS TREND CONTINUING
ACROSS SOUTHERN MI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL DIURNAL
SUPPORT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP MIXED LAYER DEVELOPING BEHIND
THE FRONT UP TO AROUND 850MB WITH STEEP LL LAPSE RATES DUE TO
IMPRESSIVE CAA BETWEEN THE SFC AND 700MB. IN THIS MIXED
LAYER...MODELS ARE SHOWING WINDS OF AROUND 50 KNOTS AS LOW AS 925MB
IN THE COLUMN PEAKING FROM 09-14Z BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING. THIS
SHOULD PRODUCE WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS AROUND 40-50 MPH AT THE SFC
THUS THE WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE DOES
REMAIN THE CHANCE OF HIGHER GUSTS REACHING THE SFC...ESPECIALLY IF A
FEW SHALLOW CONVECTIVE CELLS CAN DEVELOP AS THE LINGERING TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. AT THIS POINT WILL HOLD WITH THE ADVISORY AND ALLOW
THE NEXT SHIFT TO ASSESS TRENDS HEADING INTO THE DIURNAL CYCLE. A
SHORT FUSE HIGH WIND WARNING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SLOWLY
WANING TOWARD THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING A COMPACT
VORT MAX DIVING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING TROUGH AND TRACKING
ACROSS THE MI/OH BORDER BETWEEN ABOUT 00-06Z SATURDAY. ADDED A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THIS PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SE MI WILL BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THE COURSE OF THE
WEEKEND...ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE FCST TO BUILD FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SUPPORT A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CORE OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WILL
PUSH OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY BUT WILL STILL SUPPORT
DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S. LOW LEVEL WARMING WILL GET A BOOST ON
SUNDAY UNDER STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS. THIS AND
DECENT MIXING DEPTHS SUGGEST DAYTIME HIGHS ON SUN WILL RISE WELL
INTO THE 60S.
A FAST MOVING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO EJECT OUT OF THE
GULF OF ALASKA UPPER LOW AND TRACK ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE LATEST
GFS AND ECMWF IN BRINGING THE ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT ACROSS SE MI MON
MORNING. THE BETTER LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS ARE SHOWN TO PASS ACROSS
THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION. FORECAST AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID LEVEL
WAVE AS IT ROTATES INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WILL HOWEVER OFFER AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR INCREASED LOW LEVEL SW FLOW TO ADVECT A PLUME OF
DEEP MOISTURE INTO LOWER MI ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT. THIS WILL
REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON
MORNING.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT. DAYTIME HEATING AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL HOWEVER BOOST
MIXING DEPTHS AND SHOULD REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS INTO THE 60S
BOTH MON AND TUES. REBOUNDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION
AND DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE OF
MID APRIL SEASONAL NORMS DURING THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE AREAS TODAY. A DEEP
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON THIS
MORNING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS SYSTEM IS NOW DRIVING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. OBSERVATIONS ON THE COLD SIDE OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE IN
STRONG SUPPORT OF WIDESPREAD GALES. GALES WILL STEADILY DIMINISH
TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH WILL INFLUENCE THE REGION
DURING THE WEEKEND AND WILL SUSTAIN LIGHT WINDS ON SATURDAY. DESPITE
A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WIND ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH DEPARTS TO THE
MID ATLANTIC...STRONG STABILITY OVER THE COLD LAKES WILL KEEP WIND
SPEEDS BELOW 20 KNOTS.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ047>049-053>055-
060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ363-421-422-
441>443-462>464.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
LHZ361-362.
LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ444.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....DRK
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
638 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
HAD A REPORT OF RAIN/SLEET/SNOW 3N OF BRD FROM AN OBSERVER. HAVE
ADDED MIXED WORDING TO THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. VERY SHARP VORT MAX WAS MOVING THROUGH THIS AREA ATTM AND
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. REMOVED THE MENTION OF SNOW OVER NW
WI AS SHORT WAVE THAT WAS AFFECTING THIS AREA WAS DEPARTING. REST
OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS WERE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA AT
07Z. ONE WAS LOCATED IN NW MN AND THE SECOND IN CENTRAL WI. THEIR
ASSOCIATED TROFS WERE ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL AND DRIVING
SOME PCPN...MAINLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
REGION. THE LAST OF THE SNOW WAS OVER THE FAR EASTERN EDGE OF THE NW
WI FORECAST AREA WHERE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS WERE FOUND. THE SNOW IN NW
WI WILL EXIT THE AREA BY 815Z AND HAVE CANCELED THE ADVISORY WITH
NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE FOUND UNTIL 15Z OVER THIS SAME AREA. NOT EXPECTING ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EVEN THOUGH A NW WIND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL OCCUR. THE REASON...LOW LEVEL WAA IN THE 1000-900MB LEVEL WILL
OFFSET ANY POTENTIAL ACCUMULATION. WILL MAINTAIN THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY OVER SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS AND CARLTON COUNTIES WITH VSBYS
BELOW FIVE EIGHTHS OF A MILE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z.
THE UPPER LOW/TROF IN NW MN IS PROGGED TO MOVE TO SE MN BY 18Z
TODAY. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIDESPREAD PCPN...BUT DO HAVE SOME POPS
FROM 20Z TO 22Z OVER SOUTHERN SAWYER COUNTY WHERE ENOUGH FORCING
FROM THE PASSING UPPER TROF MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS. THIS IS SEEN
IN THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL...AS WELL AS THE 00Z RUN OF
THE ARW AND NMM. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING COVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND SLIP OFF TO
THE EAST ON SATURDAY. WEAK WAA IS ON TAP FOR TONIGHT AND A BIT
STRONGER ON SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF CROSSES INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NO PCPN IS EXPECTED AS COLUMN RH IS LESS
THAN 50 PERCENT. WARMEST DAY IN A LONG TIME SATURDAY WITH MAX TEMPS
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S. COOLEST OVER THE ARROWHEAD
WHERE A COOL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE
LOWER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL COMBINE WITH A
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...MODEST
WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE MID LEVELS AND INTERACT WITH AN
INCOMING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHLAND. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
OVER NRN MN WITH ML CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 250 J/KG AND
ROUGHLY 30-40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. CONDITIONS COULD BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH SMALL HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS. MUCH NEEDED RAIN WILL ALSO COME FROM THIS SYSTEM. COULD SEE
WIDESPREAD QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN WITH THIS FRONT.
BEHIND THE FRONT...COLD AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NW OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE TRIGGERED OVER
THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO N-CENTRAL WI MON MORNING...BUT THE GENERAL
TREND SHOULD BE DRYING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A DOME OF WARM
AND DRY AIR BUILDS IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. ANOTHER WEAK
FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH A
RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR POSSIBLE THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
REALLY BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION LATER THIS
WEEK...SO FOLLOWED THIS TREND AND HEDGED POPS BACK A BIT FROM
BLENDED GUIDANCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
THE PATTERN HAS ALSO SHIFTED SUCH THAT THE PERSISTENT NE WINDS OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR DO NOT APPEAR TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE WEEK...WHICH WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TWIN PORTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LINGERING MVFR CIGS AND LIGHT RAIN/SNOW IS
POSSIBLE AROUND BRD THIS MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS QUICKLY
IMPROVING TO VFR INTO THE LATE MORNING. HAVE ALSO ADDED A TEMPO
FOR INL MVFR CIGS AS A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS ATTEMPTS TO PUSH IN FROM
THE WRN ONTARIO. CONDITIONS AROUND HYR WILL ALSO REMAIN IFR/MVFR
THIS MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
NW GUSTS TO 15 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 50 31 60 44 / 0 0 0 20
INL 50 29 64 45 / 0 0 0 30
BRD 53 31 65 46 / 40 0 0 20
HYR 50 29 60 44 / 0 0 0 10
ASX 50 30 61 43 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...BJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
624 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS WERE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA AT
07Z. ONE WAS LOCATED IN NW MN AND THE SECOND IN CENTRAL WI. THEIR
ASSOCIATED TROFS WERE ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL AND DRIVING
SOME PCPN...MAINLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
REGION. THE LAST OF THE SNOW WAS OVER THE FAR EASTERN EDGE OF THE NW
WI FORECAST AREA WHERE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS WERE FOUND. THE SNOW IN NW
WI WILL EXIT THE AREA BY 815Z AND HAVE CANCELED THE ADVISORY WITH
NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE FOUND UNTIL 15Z OVER THIS SAME AREA. NOT EXPECTING ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EVEN THOUGH A NW WIND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL OCCUR. THE REASON...LOW LEVEL WAA IN THE 1000-900MB LEVEL WILL
OFFSET ANY POTENTIAL ACCUMULATION. WILL MAINTAIN THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY OVER SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS AND CARLTON COUNTIES WITH VSBYS
BELOW FIVE EIGHTHS OF A MILE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z.
THE UPPER LOW/TROF IN NW MN IS PROGGED TO MOVE TO SE MN BY 18Z
TODAY. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIDESPREAD PCPN...BUT DO HAVE SOME POPS
FROM 20Z TO 22Z OVER SOUTHERN SAWYER COUNTY WHERE ENOUGH FORCING
FROM THE PASSING UPPER TROF MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS. THIS IS SEEN
IN THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL...AS WELL AS THE 00Z RUN OF
THE ARW AND NMM. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING COVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND SLIP OFF TO
THE EAST ON SATURDAY. WEAK WAA IS ON TAP FOR TONIGHT AND A BIT
STRONGER ON SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF CROSSES INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NO PCPN IS EXPECTED AS COLUMN RH IS LESS
THAN 50 PERCENT. WARMEST DAY IN A LONG TIME SATURDAY WITH MAX TEMPS
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S. COOLEST OVER THE ARROWHEAD
WHERE A COOL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE
LOWER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL COMBINE WITH A
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...MODEST
WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE MID LEVELS AND INTERACT WITH AN
INCOMING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHLAND. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
OVER NRN MN WITH ML CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 250 J/KG AND
ROUGHLY 30-40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. CONDITIONS COULD BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH SMALL HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS. MUCH NEEDED RAIN WILL ALSO COME FROM THIS SYSTEM. COULD SEE
WIDESPREAD QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN WITH THIS FRONT.
BEHIND THE FRONT...COLD AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NW OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE TRIGGERED OVER
THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO N-CENTRAL WI MON MORNING...BUT THE GENERAL
TREND SHOULD BE DRYING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A DOME OF WARM
AND DRY AIR BUILDS IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. ANOTHER WEAK
FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH A
RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR POSSIBLE THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
REALLY BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION LATER THIS
WEEK...SO FOLLOWED THIS TREND AND HEDGED POPS BACK A BIT FROM
BLENDED GUIDANCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
THE PATTERN HAS ALSO SHIFTED SUCH THAT THE PERSISTENT NE WINDS OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR DO NOT APPEAR TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE WEEK...WHICH WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TWIN PORTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LINGERING MVFR CIGS AND LIGHT RAIN/SNOW IS
POSSIBLE AROUND BRD THIS MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS QUICKLY
IMPROVING TO VFR INTO THE LATE MORNING. HAVE ALSO ADDED A TEMPO
FOR INL MVFR CIGS AS A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS ATTEMPTS TO PUSH IN FROM
THE WRN ONTARIO. CONDITIONS AROUND HYR WILL ALSO REMAIN IFR/MVFR
THIS MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
NW GUSTS TO 15 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 50 31 60 44 / 0 0 0 20
INL 50 29 64 45 / 0 0 0 30
BRD 53 31 65 46 / 40 0 0 20
HYR 50 29 60 44 / 10 0 0 10
ASX 50 30 61 43 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...BJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
916 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 915 AM FRIDAY...DECREASED POPS ALONG COAST LATER TODAY AS
PRECIP LOOKS TO HOLD OFF TIL TONIGHT. INCREASED WIND GUSTS OVER
LAND AS GOOD MIXING EXPECTED WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 MPH LIKELY. NO
MJR CHANGES TO TEMPS WITH LOW TO MID 80S INLAND AND 70S BEACHES.
PREV DISC...WARM FRONT NOW WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WITH ALL
AREAS TEMPS IN THE 60S. PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED AND THE 3KM HRRR
AND RAP MODELS SHOW MOST OF THE AREA REMAINING DRY INTO EARLY
EVENING. HAVE DROPPED POPS THROUGH ABOUT 18Z BASED ON THESE
TRENDS. AS DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVES
AWAY...EXPECT MORE AND MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL INTO THE 80S INLAND AND WELL INTO THE
70S ALONG THE COAST. FORECAST DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S
WILL AID DESTABILIZATION BY AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST LI VALUES IN
THE -4 TO -6 RANGE WITH CAPE VALUES OF 1500 J/KG FORECAST BY LATER
IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A LINE OF
CONVECTION ARRIVES IN OUR CWA AROUND 00Z JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND MOVES OFFSHORE SOMETIME NEAR 06Z. SPC HAS COUNTIES JUST INLAND
FROM THE COAST IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE TODAY WITH MARGINAL RISK
ALONG THE COAST...MAINLY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY
ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES. THINK STRONG DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LARGE HAIL AS
WELL. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE
LIKELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM FRIDAY...WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS ALONG THE COAST AFTER
06Z WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING NEAR OR OFFSHORE BY 12Z. THE THREAT
OF THUNDER WILL LARGE END AFTER 06Z AS MOST OF THE INSTABILITY
MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION DOES NOT
START IN EARNEST UNTIL SATURDAY...SO THINK MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND 60 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS. A TOTAL OF ONE-
HALF TO POSSIBLY THREE-QUARTER INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS SAT-MON PERIOD
WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRY FCST. SIGNIFICANT
ADJUSTMENTS TO TUE-THU PERIOD WITH MODELS INDICATING FRONTAL
PASSAGE TUE-TUE NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRES WED-THU.
SATURDAY...00Z GFS HAS FRONT WELL OFF COAST AT 12Z WHILE NAM AND
ECMWF HAVE IT JUST ALONG COAST WITH SRN STREAM SHRT WV STILL
MOVING THROUGH TO INDICATE LINGERING THREAT OF SHOWERS UNTIL MID
MORNING. CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST WHICH LEANED TO THIS SLIGHTLY
SLOWER SOLUTION. CLEARING EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTN AND MOS GDNC
SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS 70-75 INLAND WITH 60S OBX.
SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
SFC RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS TO N...THEN OFFSHORE ON MON. COOLEST
TEMPS LIKELY SAT NIGHT...MAINLY MID TO UPR 40S. TEMPS THEN
MODERATING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MON.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NRN
STREAM SHRT WV MOVING ACROS NE US WITH ATTENDANT SFC FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH ERN NC LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. GIVEN INCREASED MODEL
CONFIDENCE...ADDED SLGT CHC POPS OVER WRN SECTIONS LATE MON NIGHT
AND INCREASED POPS TO CHC ALL ZONES TUE WITH LINGERING SLGT CHC
ERN SECTIONS TUE EVENING. MODELS INDICATE RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT
LATE TUE NIGHT INTO THU...AND DROPPED POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH MSTR
AND LIFT REMAINING S AND W OF AREA UNTIL THU NIGHT. TEMPS A FEW
DEGS COOLER BEHIND FRONT WED...MODERATING AGAIN THU.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM FRIDAY...MOST OF THE LOWER CEILINGS/VSBYS HAVE FAILED
TO MATERIALIZE THIS MORNING...EXCEPT FOR A FEW PATCHES OF FOG
AROUND KOAJ. WITH INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING...INCREASING
MIXING...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-AFTERNOON. LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND 00Z AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL WANE AFTER 06Z
WITH LINGERING SHOWERS...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. THESE EVENING
SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY DROP CONDITIONS TO MVFR IN BOTH CEILING AND
VSBY AT TIMES...MAINLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...LINGERING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PSBL EARLY SAT
MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR ALL AREAS BY AFTN. VFR EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL SAT NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH HIGH PRES MOVING ACROSS TO N
AND THEN OFFSHORE. SUB-VFR PSBL AGAIN LATE MON NIGHT AS MSTR
RETURNS WITH SRLY FLOW...BUT MORE LIKELY TUE WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES WITH SW WINDS GRAD INCREASING
TODAY AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W.
PREV DISC...WITH WARM FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...WINDS ARE
GENERALLY S/SW AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
PLACES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND. FEEL THE SOUTHERN
WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND MAY MAINLY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN GUSTS...BUT SEAS SHOULD REACH 6 FEET OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN WATERS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...INCREASING TO AS
HIGH AS 5 TO 7 FEET OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS LATE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO SAT-MON
PERIOD...BUT DID ADJUST MON NIGHT-TUE PERIOD WITH LATEST MODEL
CONSENSUS. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SAT MORNING FOLLOWED BY
BRIEF NRLY WIND SURGE WHICH WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KT BY
EVENING. SECONDARY SURGE OF NE WINDS 15-20 KT LATE SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...THEN WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO E-SE AROUND 10 KT SUN
NIGHT INTO MON. 00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT S-SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MON NIGHT INTO TUE
AND ADJUSTED FCST ACCORDINGLY.
LOCAL NWPS NOT AVBL...AND USED BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND WW3 FOR
SEAS. HEIGHTS SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT LATE SAT...THEN BUILDING AGAIN
TO 3-4 FT SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...DROPPING TO AROUND 2 FT SUN NIGHT
INTO MON. SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT TUE WITH STRONGER S-SW WINDS.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ135-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...RF/CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...CTC/JBM
MARINE...RF/CTC/JBM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
705 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 7 AM FRIDAY...WARM FRONT NOW WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WITH
ALL AREAS TEMPS IN THE 60S. PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED AND THE 3KM
HRRR AND RAP MODELS SHOW MOST OF THE AREA REMAINING DRY INTO EARLY
EVENING. HAVE DROPPED POPS THROUGH ABOUT 18Z BASED ON THESE
TRENDS. AS DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVES
AWAY...EXPECT MORE AND MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL INTO THE 80S INLAND AND WELL INTO THE
70S ALONG THE COAST. FORECAST DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S
WILL AID DESTABILIZATION BY AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST LI VALUES IN
THE -4 TO -6 RANGE WITH CAPE VALUES OF 1500 J/KG FORECAST BY LATER
IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A LINE OF
CONVECTION ARRIVES IN OUR CWA AROUND 00Z JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND MOVES OFFSHORE SOMETIME NEAR 06Z. SPC HAS COUNTIES JUST INLAND
FROM THE COAST IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE TODAY WITH MARGINAL RISK
ALONG THE COAST...MAINLY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY
ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES. THINK STRONG DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LARGE HAIL AS
WELL. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE
LIKELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM FRIDAY...WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS ALONG THE COAST AFTER
06Z WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING NEAR OR OFFSHORE BY 12Z. THE THREAT
OF THUNDER WILL LARGE END AFTER 06Z AS MOST OF THE INSTABILITY
MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION DOES NOT
START IN EARNEST UNTIL SATURDAY...SO THINK MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND 60 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS. A TOTAL OF ONE-
HALF TO POSSIBLY THREE-QUARTER INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS SAT-MON PERIOD
WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRY FCST. SIGNIFICANT
ADJUSTMENTS TO TUE-THU PERIOD WITH MODELS INDICATING FRONTAL
PASSAGE TUE-TUE NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRES WED-THU.
SATURDAY...00Z GFS HAS FRONT WELL OFF COAST AT 12Z WHILE NAM AND
ECMWF HAVE IT JUST ALONG COAST WITH SRN STREAM SHRT WV STILL
MOVING THROUGH TO INDICATE LINGERING THREAT OF SHOWERS UNTIL MID
MORNING. CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST WHICH LEANED TO THIS SLIGHTLY
SLOWER SOLUTION. CLEARING EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTN AND MOS GDNC
SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS 70-75 INLAND WITH 60S OBX.
SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
SFC RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS TO N...THEN OFFSHORE ON MON. COOLEST
TEMPS LIKELY SAT NIGHT...MAINLY MID TO UPR 40S. TEMPS THEN
MODERATING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MON.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NRN
STREAM SHRT WV MOVING ACROS NE US WITH ATTENDANT SFC FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH ERN NC LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. GIVEN INCREASED MODEL
CONFIDENCE...ADDED SLGT CHC POPS OVER WRN SECTIONS LATE MON NIGHT
AND INCREASED POPS TO CHC ALL ZONES TUE WITH LINGERING SLGT CHC
ERN SECTIONS TUE EVENING. MODELS INDICATE RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT
LATE TUE NIGHT INTO THU...AND DROPPED POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH MSTR
AND LIFT REMAINING S AND W OF AREA UNTIL THU NIGHT. TEMPS A FEW
DEGS COOLER BEHIND FRONT WED...MODERATING AGAIN THU.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM FRIDAY...MOST OF THE LOWER CEILINGS/VSBYS HAVE FAILED
TO MATERIALIZE THIS MORNING...EXCEPT FOR A FEW PATCHES OF FOG
AROUND KOAJ. WITH INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING...INCREASING
MIXING...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-AFTERNOON. LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND 00Z AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL WANE AFTER 06Z
WITH LINGERING SHOWERS...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. THESE EVENING
SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY DROP CONDITIONS TO MVFR IN BOTH CEILING AND
VSBY AT TIMES...MAINLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...LINGERING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PSBL EARLY SAT
MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR ALL AREAS BY AFTN. VFR EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL SAT NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH HIGH PRES MOVING ACROSS TO N
AND THEN OFFSHORE. SUB-VFR PSBL AGAIN LATE MON NIGHT AS MSTR
RETURNS WITH SRLY FLOW...BUT MORE LIKELY TUE WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM FRIDAY...WITH WARM FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...WINDS
ARE GENERALLY S/SW AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN PLACES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND. FEEL
THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND MAY MAINLY REACH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN GUSTS...BUT SEAS SHOULD REACH 6 FEET
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...INCREASING
TO AS HIGH AS 5 TO 7 FEET OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS LATE THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO SAT-MON
PERIOD...BUT DID ADJUST MON NIGHT-TUE PERIOD WITH LATEST MODEL
CONSENSUS. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SAT MORNING FOLLOWED BY
BRIEF NRLY WIND SURGE WHICH WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KT BY
EVENING. SECONDARY SURGE OF NE WINDS 15-20 KT LATE SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...THEN WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO E-SE AROUND 10 KT SUN
NIGHT INTO MON. 00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT S-SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MON NIGHT INTO TUE
AND ADJUSTED FCST ACCORDINGLY.
LOCAL NWPS NOT AVBL...AND USED BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND WW3 FOR
SEAS. HEIGHTS SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT LATE SAT...THEN BUILDING AGAIN
TO 3-4 FT SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...DROPPING TO AROUND 2 FT SUN NIGHT
INTO MON. SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT TUE WITH STRONGER S-SW WINDS.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ135-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...CTC/JBM
MARINE...CTC/JBM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
808 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
.UPDATE...
BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH SOME CONSIDERATION OF
THE HRRR MODEL...WE HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE
HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR. WE HAVE ALSO DECREASED HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY GIVEN ONGOING RADAR TRENDS...NORTHERLY WINDS
AND CLOUD COVER.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015/
UPDATE...
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES BETWEEN SAN ANTONIO...
KERRVILLE AND UVALDE. HAVE BOOSTED POPS THROUGH MID MORNING FOR
THIS AREA. ALSO...STRONGER WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED ALONG I-35
FROM NORTHEAST OF SAN ANTONIO TO AUSTIN. HAVE BOOSTED WINDS FOR
THIS MORNING IN THAT AREA. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015/
DISCUSSION...12Z AVIATION BELOW.
AVIATION...THE WEAK COLD FRONT IS NOW LOCATED ROUGHLY NEAR A
DRT-UVA-PEZ LINE. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING
BETWEEN UVA-SAT...DRIFTING EAST. THESE COULD IMPACT THE SAT/SSF
TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 15Z. AS THE COLD FRONT WEAKENS FURTHER
AND MOVES SOUTH...EXPECT AFOREMENTIONED ONGOING PRECIP TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE MID TO LATE MORNING. CAN NOT RULE
OUT SOME ADDITIONAL RE-DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...BUT COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN TAFS. A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS ARE ONGOING EARLY
THIS MORNING. EXPECT VFR CEILINGS AREAWIDE BY THIS AFTERNOON. NE
WINDS GUSTY UP AROUND THE AUS TERMINAL...DIMINISHING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY BECOMING IFR IN SOME LOCATIONS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
A COLD FRONT ALONG A LANGTRY TO SAN ANTONIO TO GIDDINGS LINE
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH WITH RADARS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND IT FROM SAN ANTONIO INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
HILL COUNTRY. SOME SHOWERS ALSO NOTED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
FRONT IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER WITH SOME DRYING OVER NORTHERN
AREAS AS SEEN BY DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND EVEN SOME UPPER 40S OVER
THE FAR NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY. A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS DEVELOPED
EARLIER. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING CAP WITH INCREASING CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION TAKING HOLD WEAKENED THEM. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER
SOUTHERN TEXAS LATER TODAY. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
TODAY WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND UPWARD FORCING WILL BE
MAXIMIZED. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG STORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN
RIO GRANDE PLAINS DUE TO CAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG. SOME DRIER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO OUR AREA SHIFTING BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC
LIFT DEVELOPS SATURDAY AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES AND A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS TEXAS INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL AREAS. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE TODAY AND SATURDAY.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED
ABOUT 700 MILES WEST OF POINT CONCEPTION ON THE CALIFORNIA COAST
MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. UPWARD
FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE. THERE REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY THAT AN MCS WILL FORM OFF THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO OF
MEXICO AND THEN MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS DUE TO LOW
TO MID LEVEL WIND SHEAR. ALSO...PWS AROUND 1.5 INCHES INDICATE A
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER
TROUGH TRANSITIONS INTO A WEAK SHEAR AXIS AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN RAIN LATE
MONDAY...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RESUME AND CONTINUE
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS TEXAS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS. A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE
ACROSS LATE THURSDAY WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ENDING IN ITS WAKE BY NEXT FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 71 63 77 67 79 / 60 20 50 50 60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 69 62 76 66 78 / 60 20 50 50 60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 72 63 79 66 80 / 60 20 50 50 60
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 70 60 75 65 78 / 40 20 50 40 50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 78 67 79 68 81 / 20 40 50 40 50
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 70 59 76 65 79 / 40 20 50 50 60
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 74 64 79 67 80 / 80 20 50 50 60
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 71 63 78 66 79 / 60 20 50 50 60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 74 65 78 68 79 / 50 20 60 50 70
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 74 64 79 68 80 / 80 20 50 50 60
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 74 65 79 68 80 / 70 20 60 50 60
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
629 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NORTH OF SOUTH
TEXAS...WITH A SLOWER PROGRESSION SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING. THIS
SAID...HAVE BACKED OFF ON TIMING WITH THE FRONT AS WELL AS
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONAL HEATING AND
INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS MRNG...MORE INTO
THE AFTN. UNTIL THEN...LIFR/IFR/MVFR CIGS AS WELL AS VSBYS WILL
CONTINUE BEFORE LIFTING THROUGH THE LATE MRNG/AFTN. MOISTURE
RESIDES AROUND 2500KT FT FOR SCT/BKN CLOUDS...SO FOR THE MOST PART
WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF VFR WILL BE POSSIBLE
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. RAIN CHANCES DWINDLE LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
EASTERN SITES...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LATE TOWARD LRD.
A RETURN OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...CONVECTION WEST OF THE
BORDER CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS FARTHER EAST THIS EARLY
MORNING. THIS IS ALL IN PART OF AN UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT HELPED
FIRE OFF CONVECTION ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRE LATE YESTERDAY
EVENING...CONTINUING TO PUSH FARTHER EAST ITSELF. LIGHT RAIN IS
CURRENTLY FALLING OUT OF THE CIRRUS SHIELD FROM THIS CLUSTERS OF
STORMS. TIMING OF THE STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE BORDER REMAINS
SLOWER AS MUCH DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO GET ENTRAINED INTO THE
SYSTEMS. EVEN THE HRRR HAS SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE
STORMS...BUT CONTINUES TO BRING THEM THROUGH LATER THIS EARLY
MORNING...WITH THE TEXAS TECH WRF HANDLING IT WELL. AT THIS
TIME...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED FROM THESE STORMS...BUT
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
CHANGING FOCUS TO THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY CUTTING
THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD
TODAY. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASED PWATS OF 1.5-1.7 INCHES
AND ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM E-SE MOVING MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVES...SHOULD
LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. DIFFERENCES
REMAIN WITH THE HRRR AND TT-WRF IN RESPECT WITH RAIN CHANCES IN
THE AFTN ESPECIALLY OUT WEST. THE TT-WRF CONTINUES CHANCES
/SIMILAR TO THE GLOBAL MODELS/ WHILE HRRR ENDS CONVECTION TOWARD
THE LATE MORNING AS IT GETS A BIT MORE STABLE. THE LATTER WOULD
ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM UP WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR INCREASING CAPE
AND INSTABILITY FOR REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTN/EVNG. THE CIRRUS
SHIELD MAY BE A BIG INHIBITOR OF THE TEMPS INCREASING...BUT WITH
ANOTHER VORT LOBE ENTERING THE REGION...AND INCREASING FLOW FROM
THE APPROACHING UPPER JET...TEMPERATURES AT THE SFC MAY NOT NEED
TO WARM MUCH AS THE MIDLEVELS WOULD BE COOL ENOUGH. WITH ALL
THAT SAID...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WESTERN ZONES...WITH LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS BEING THE
BIGGER THREAT...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE.
CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE HEADING LATE
IN THE NIGHT...WITH SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. FOR TEMPERATURES...CONTINUED MILD AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 ACROSS THE EAST AND IN THE
MID 80S ACROSS THE WEST.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...PLENTIFUL MOISTURE REMAINS
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A BRIEF DRY SPELL TAKES PLACE. AREA REMAINS IN
WSW FLOW ALOFT WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND LIMITED IF ANY AFTERNOON
CAP. GOOD SURFACE FORCING/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
MORNING. ERGO...WILL GO WITH MODERATE POPS THROUGH SUNDAY ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAY...WITH ACTIVITY WANING IN THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE PICKING UP SOME TOWARD THE COASTAL AREAS.
THERE COULD BE A BRIEF QUIET PERIOD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS MODELS ALL
CONCUR ON PUSHING BEST MOISTURE TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...PRETTY POTENT SUB-TROPICAL JET IMPACTS AREA (LEFT FRONT
QUAD) ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...WITH MOISTURE RETURNING
(NEARLY 2 INCH PWATS). THUS...ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF RAIN. ALTHOUGH
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR A SOME
STRONG STORMS...WITH MAYBE EVEN A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SEVERE STORM OR
TWO SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING (SEE SWODY3 FOR MORE DETAILS).
TIMING OF JET MAY LIMIT SEVERE CONCERN IF IMPACTS ARE MAINLY AFTER
06Z ON 4/13. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SATURDAY
AS IF ENOUGH RAIN OCCURS OVER LARGE ENOUGH AREA FLOODING ISSUES MAY
ARISE.
LOOKS LIKE A DRY PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE RAIN CHANCES PICK UP
AGAIN ESPECIALLY MID WEEK WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. GENERALLY
FOLLOWED THE SUPERBLEND WITH POPS...HOWEVER FEEL POPS ON TUESDAY MAY
BE A TAD OVER-DONE AT THIS TIME AS MOISTURE MAY BE A BIT MORE
LIMITED THAN ONE WOULD WANT (PLENTY OF TIME TO ADJUST). BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN APPEAR TO BE THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONT COMES DOWN ON
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. DRIER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT
(COOLER TOO)...AND FOR NOW DID NOT MENTION RAIN IN FOR FRIDAY (DAY
8) POPS. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES AFTER DAY
3 (USED SUPERBLEND FOR THESE). FOR TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...STAYED WITH THE COOLER MOS NUMBERS BUT DID BLEND A BIT TOO
BUT RAIN-COOLED AIR AND CLOUDS WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING TOO MUCH THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 80 70 81 72 82 / 50 30 60 30 50
VICTORIA 78 68 79 69 81 / 60 30 70 40 70
LAREDO 86 68 83 71 87 / 50 50 50 50 30
ALICE 81 69 82 71 84 / 50 40 70 30 50
ROCKPORT 80 71 80 71 80 / 50 20 60 30 50
COTULLA 79 67 81 68 84 / 50 40 70 50 50
KINGSVILLE 81 70 83 72 85 / 50 30 60 30 50
NAVY CORPUS 80 71 81 72 81 / 40 20 60 30 50
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
CB/85...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1009 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR WEDGE OF STABLE AIR WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL THEN SWEEP
THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAY TODAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM EDT FRIDAY...
THE WEDGE IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA IS PUTTING UP A GOOD
FIGHT...BUT IT WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO STRONG MIXING FROM A
LOFT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WHILE THE WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG HAS ENDED...EXPECT PATCHY FOG OR EVEN PATCHY DENSE FOG
TO SURVIVE FOR A LITTLE BIT LONGER ACROSS MAINLY PARTS OF THE
JAMES RIVER BASIN. IN THE WEST...THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA OF
SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS
REACHED ROUGHLY A BEECH MOUNTAIN NORTH CAROLINA...TO BLAND
VIRGINIA...ANJEAN WEST VIRGINIA LINE. WHILE LITTLE TO NO THUNDER
IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS REGION OF SHOWERS...WE ARE NOT
GOING TO RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STORMS AS THE
PRECIPITATION PROGRESSES INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY MIDDAY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ACTIVITY
REACHES THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND PEAK
HEATING OF THE DAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER OFFER A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM LYNCHBURG TO
REIDSVILLE AND POINTS EAST THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY CONCERN WITH ANY STORM THAT REACHED
SEVERE LEVELS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA IS WITHIN A
MARGINAL POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WITH LESS CHANCE OF
SEVERE WEATHER.
AS OF 653 AM EDT FRIDAY...
MINOR UPDATE TO SLOW DOWN ARRIVAL OF LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR WEST
PER CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...JUST BY AN HOUR OR TWO. ALSO SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS AND LOWER DEW PTS EARLY THIS MORNING THAN WHAT WE
PREVIOUSLY HAD IN THE NORTHEAST...49 AT LYNCHBURG LAST HOUR...SO
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THERE. LINE OF CONVECTION STILL ABOUT 2 HRS
AWAY FROM THE WESTERN FRINGES OF CWA...AND BEGINNING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF WEAKENING IN TERMS OF REFLECTIVITY AS WELL AS TOTAL
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. STILL MAY EVENTUALLY NEED SOME SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS FOR GUSTY WINDS IF IT MAINTAINS SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS AS IT NEARS.
PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...
WEDGE FRONT REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING FROM
NORTH-CENTRAL NC THROUGH NEW RIVER VALLEY AND THEN UP THE
VIRGINIA-WEST VIRGINIA BORDER. LOWEST VISIBILITIES ARE ALONG
SOUTHERN BORDER IN NORTHERN NC AND SOUTHSIDE VA...AND IN
COORDINATION WITH WFO RAH ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THOSE
AREAS THROUGH 9 AM. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN LIFTING NORTH
QUICKLY AROUND SUNRISE OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER...AND SO MAY END UP
CANCELING SLIGHTLY EARLY.
OTHERWISE WE ARE WATCHING LINES OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...AND THERE ARE A FEW AREAS OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NOW
OUT AHEAD OF THESE...FROM UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND A FEW IN ERN
KENTUCKY. HRRR AND HIRES WRF ARW SEEM TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON THIS
AND TIME OF ARRIVAL IN WESTERN PART OF CWA...MAINLY BETWEEN 14Z
AND 15Z...SO DELAYED LIKELY POPS UNTIL THEN...WITH SOME LOW CHC
POPS STARTING AROUND 11Z IN CASE ANYTHING CONTINUES TO POP OUT
AHEAD. ALREADY GETTING SOME VERY LOW INSTABILITY VALUES IN FAR
WEST.
MOST HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE BREAKS THE LINE UP SOMEWHAT AS IT
MOVES INTO WESTERN SLOPES...ALTHOUGH SOME SCATTERED CELLS DO MAKE
IT THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...THEN THE LINE TRIES TO REFORM
EAST OF BLUE RIDGE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THINK HRRR MAY BE A
LITTLE TOO FAST WITH THE TIMING SHOWING EVERYTHING EAST OF CWA BY
22Z...BUT IT MAY NOT BE TOO FAR OFF. STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST
HOW STRONG THIS LINE WILL GET BEFORE GETTING EAST OF THE
AREA...WITH INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT LIMITED YET SHEAR QUITE STRONG.
SHOULD BE GOOD FORCING WITH FRONT HOWEVER...SO SLIGHT RISK FROM
MTV TO LYH AND POINTS EAST LOOKS REASONABLE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS
BEING PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN QLCS TYPE OF MODE EXPECTED. HAIL SHOULD
BE BE MINIMAL GIVEN LIMITED LOW TO MODEST INSTABILITY. KEPT POPS
LOW END OF CATEGORICAL ALL THE WAY THROUGH CWA...AS MOST LOCATIONS
REALLY SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A BRIEF SHOWER...BUT IT`S POSSIBLE LINE
COULD BREAK UP ENOUGH TO WHERE WE WILL NEED TO LOWER POPS IN
CENTRAL PART OF CWA BEFORE LINE REFORMS. ITS ALSO QUITE POSSIBLE
THAT THE LINE DOES NOT GET ITS ACT TOGETHER AGAIN UNTIL IT MAKES
IT EAST OF THE CWA...AND THUS LIMITED SEVERE WX
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IF THIS ENDS UP PUSHING THROUGH A LITTLE
FASTER.
CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE QUICKLY BY LATE AFT IN WEST AND EARLY
EVENING IN EAST...WITH A FEW LINGERING LOW CLOUDS IN WESTERN
SLOPES...BUT LATER ON OVERNIGHT MORE COMPLETE CLEARING EXPECTED
WITH NW WINDS 10-15 MPH.
WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON TEMPS TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND TRIED TO
SHOW SOME COOLING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND LINE OF CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON...PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT FRIDAY...
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST OF OUR REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
A LARGE 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY
AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A
MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN BRISK NW WINDS DURING THE DAY
AND WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IT WILL FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE
SPRING THAN RECENT DAYS...AT LEAST IN THOSE AREAS THAT ESCAPED THE
WEDGE. HIGHS WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL CLIMO NORMS FROM NEAR 60
FAR NW TO NEAR 70 FAR SE. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST ON
SATURDAY AND SHOULD BE PARKED ALMOST OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
DECENT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS THAT WILL CERTAINLY YIELD SOME LOWS IN
THE 30S IN THE COOLER VALLEYS. WIDELY SCATTERED FROST MAY BE A
POSSIBILITY. HIGH SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH
ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE DAY AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND TEMPS REACH LEVELS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. MONDAY LOOKS
TO BE A TRANSITION DAY AS A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
EMERGE FROM THE GULF COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHEAST FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME EVIDENT WITH INCREASNG CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY AND POPS RISING TO CHANCE BY MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...
OVERALL PATTERN WILL AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY MEAN 5H TROFFINESS
ACROSS THE EASTERN ROCKIES AS THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SW OPENS UP AND
RATHER FLAT FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EAST BENEATH PASSING WAVES WELL TO
THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A VERY MOIST OVERRUNNING TYPE SW FLOW BY
MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT
EMERGES INTO THE PLAINS BY DAY7. APPEARS DRIEST PERIODS WILL BE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL DIPPING
INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TO THE SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER
WEAK IMPULSES EJECTING SE ALONG THE BOUNDARY LIKELY TO PRODUCE SOME
SHOWER COVERAGE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT BEFORE THE LARGER
SWATH OF DEEPER MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN NE LATER TUESDAY WHEN WILL
HAVE HIGHER CHANCE POPS. WEAK WEDGE LOOKS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THEN
ERODE DURING THURSDAY AS THE RESIDUAL BACKDOOR FRONT STARTS TO LIFT
BACK NE AS WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE STRONGER COLD FRONT TO THE WEST.
THIS LIKELY THE PERIOD OF BETTER RAIN CHANCES ESPCLY BY THURSDAY WITH
DEEPER PWATS ARRIVING...AND PERHAPS MORE INSTABILITY WITH THE WARM
FRONT AROUND SO MAINLY HIGH CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
AFTER A COOL START WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S EARLY MONDAY...EXPECT
MAINLY UNIFORM TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK PENDING DEGREE OF INSOLATION EACH DAY AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 750 AM EDT FRIDAY...
WEDGE WILL ERODE BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z ACROSS THE AREA AND IFR
CONDITIONS WILL LIFT TO MVFR JUST AHEAD OF A LINE OF SHWRS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY IFR...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW IN IFR ANY
ANY GIVEN AIRPORT SINCE LINE WILL LIKELY BREAK APART THROUGH
CENTRAL PART OF AREA AS IT COMES THROUGH MTNS..AND THEN MAY
REDEVELOP IN PIEDMONT. SO BLF AND LWB MAY SEE BEST CHANCE LATE
THIS MORNING WITH MODERATE SHOWERS...AND THEN BY 18Z TO 19Z AT LYH
AND DAN WHEN CONVECTION REACHES THAT AREA COULD BRIEFLY SEE IFR AS
WELL. SW WINDS WILL GUST TO AS HIGH AS AS 35 KTS OR SO AHEAD OF
THE LINE...AND THEN SHIFT WEST BEHIND IT WITH SIMILAR GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES FOR LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS WITH STORMS WILL
BE LYH AND DAN AFTER 18Z. THEN WINDS BY EARLY EVENING WILL SHIFT
MORE NW AND WEAKEN TO 10-15 KTS...WITH RETURN TO VFR. PERHAPS MVFR
BROKEN CIGS AT BLF AND LWB INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE CLEARING.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
PROLONGED PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD VFR CONTINUES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME RETURN MOISTURE AND
SHOWERS WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR COULD RETURN BY LATE MONDAY BUT
BETTER CHANCES FOR MVFR OR LOCAL IFR BY TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM WEST.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NF/SK
NEAR TERM...DS/SK
SHORT TERM...PC
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...NF/RAB/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
753 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR WEDGE OF STABLE AIR WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL THEN SWEEP
THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAY TODAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 653 AM EDT FRIDAY...
MINOR UPDATE TO SLOW DOWN ARRIVAL OF LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR WEST
PER CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...JUST BY AN HOUR OR TWO. ALSO SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS AND LOWER DEW PTS EARLY THIS MORNING THAN WHAT WE
PREVIOUSLY HAD IN THE NORTHEAST...49 AT LYNCHBURG LAST HOUR...SO
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THERE. LINE OF CONVECTION STILL ABOUT 2 HRS
AWAY FROM THE WESTERN FRINGES OF CWA...AND BEGINNING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF WEAKENING IN TERMS OF REFLECTIVITY AS WELL AS TOTAL
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. STILL MAY EVENTUALLY NEED SOME SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS FOR GUSTY WINDS IF IT MAINTAINS SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS AS IT NEARS.
PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...
WEDGE FRONT REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING FROM
NORTH-CENTRAL NC THROUGH NEW RIVER VALLEY AND THEN UP THE
VIRGINIA-WEST VIRGINIA BORDER. LOWEST VISIBILITIES ARE ALONG
SOUTHERN BORDER IN NORTHERN NC AND SOUTHSIDE VA...AND IN
COORDINATION WITH WFO RAH ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THOSE
AREAS THROUGH 9 AM. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN LIFTING NORTH
QUICKLY AROUND SUNRISE OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER...AND SO MAY END UP
CANCELING SLIGHTLY EARLY.
OTHERWISE WE ARE WATCHING LINES OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...AND THERE ARE A FEW AREAS OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NOW
OUT AHEAD OF THESE...FROM UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND A FEW IN ERN
KENTUCKY. HRRR AND HIRES WRF ARW SEEM TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON THIS
AND TIME OF ARRIVAL IN WESTERN PART OF CWA...MAINLY BETWEEN 14Z
AND 15Z...SO DELAYED LIKELY POPS UNTIL THEN...WITH SOME LOW CHC
POPS STARTING AROUND 11Z IN CASE ANYTHING CONTINUES TO POP OUT
AHEAD. ALREADY GETTING SOME VERY LOW INSTABILITY VALUES IN FAR
WEST.
MOST HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE BREAKS THE LINE UP SOMEWHAT AS IT
MOVES INTO WESTERN SLOPES...ALTHOUGH SOME SCATTERED CELLS DO MAKE
IT THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...THEN THE LINE TRIES TO REFORM
EAST OF BLUE RIDGE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THINK HRRR MAY BE A
LITTLE TOO FAST WITH THE TIMING SHOWING EVERYTHING EAST OF CWA BY
22Z...BUT IT MAY NOT BE TOO FAR OFF. STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST
HOW STRONG THIS LINE WILL GET BEFORE GETTING EAST OF THE
AREA...WITH INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT LIMITED YET SHEAR QUITE STRONG.
SHOULD BE GOOD FORCING WITH FRONT HOWEVER...SO SLIGHT RISK FROM
MTV TO LYH AND POINTS EAST LOOKS REASONABLE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS
BEING PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN QLCS TYPE OF MODE EXPECTED. HAIL SHOULD
BE BE MINIMAL GIVEN LIMITED LOW TO MODEST INSTABILITY. KEPT POPS
LOW END OF CATEGORICAL ALL THE WAY THROUGH CWA...AS MOST LOCATIONS
REALLY SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A BRIEF SHOWER...BUT IT`S POSSIBLE LINE
COULD BREAK UP ENOUGH TO WHERE WE WILL NEED TO LOWER POPS IN
CENTRAL PART OF CWA BEFORE LINE REFORMS. ITS ALSO QUITE POSSIBLE
THAT THE LINE DOES NOT GET ITS ACT TOGETHER AGAIN UNTIL IT MAKES
IT EAST OF THE CWA...AND THUS LIMITED SEVERE WX
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IF THIS ENDS UP PUSHING THROUGH A LITTLE
FASTER.
CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE QUICKLY BY LATE AFT IN WEST AND EARLY
EVENING IN EAST...WITH A FEW LINGERING LOW CLOUDS IN WESTERN
SLOPES...BUT LATER ON OVERNIGHT MORE COMPLETE CLEARING EXPECTED
WITH NW WINDS 10-15 MPH.
WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON TEMPS TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND TRIED TO
SHOW SOME COOLING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND LINE OF CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON...PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT FRIDAY...
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST OF OUR REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
A LARGE 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY
AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A
MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN BRISK NW WINDS DURING THE DAY
AND WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IT WILL FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE
SPRING THAN RECENT DAYS...AT LEAST IN THOSE AREAS THAT ESCAPED THE
WEDGE. HIGHS WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL CLIMO NORMS FROM NEAR 60
FAR NW TO NEAR 70 FAR SE. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST ON
SATURDAY AND SHOULD BE PARKED ALMOST OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
DECENT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS THAT WILL CERTAINLY YIELD SOME LOWS IN
THE 30S IN THE COOLER VALLEYS. WIDELY SCATTERED FROST MAY BE A
POSSIBILITY. HIGH SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH
ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE DAY AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND TEMPS REACH LEVELS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. MONDAY LOOKS
TO BE A TRANSITION DAY AS A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
EMERGE FROM THE GULF COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHEAST FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME EVIDENT WITH INCREASNG CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY AND POPS RISING TO CHANCE BY MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...
OVERALL PATTERN WILL AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY MEAN 5H TROFFINESS
ACROSS THE EASTERN ROCKIES AS THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SW OPENS UP AND
RATHER FLAT FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EAST BENEATH PASSING WAVES WELL TO
THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A VERY MOIST OVERRUNNING TYPE SW FLOW BY
MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT
EMERGES INTO THE PLAINS BY DAY7. APPEARS DRIEST PERIODS WILL BE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL DIPPING
INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TO THE SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER
WEAK IMPULSES EJECTING SE ALONG THE BOUNDARY LIKELY TO PRODUCE SOME
SHOWER COVERAGE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT BEFORE THE LARGER
SWATH OF DEEPER MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN NE LATER TUESDAY WHEN WILL
HAVE HIGHER CHANCE POPS. WEAK WEDGE LOOKS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THEN
ERODE DURING THURSDAY AS THE RESIDUAL BACKDOOR FRONT STARTS TO LIFT
BACK NE AS WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE STRONGER COLD FRONT TO THE WEST.
THIS LIKELY THE PERIOD OF BETTER RAIN CHANCES ESPCLY BY THURSDAY WITH
DEEPER PWATS ARRIVING...AND PERHAPS MORE INSTABILITY WITH THE WARM
FRONT AROUND SO MAINLY HIGH CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
AFTER A COOL START WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S EARLY MONDAY...EXPECT
MAINLY UNIFORM TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK PENDING DEGREE OF INSOLATION EACH DAY AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 750 AM EDT FRIDAY...
WEDGE WILL ERODE BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z ACROSS THE AREA AND IFR
CONDITIONS WILL LIFT TO MVFR JUST AHEAD OF A LINE OF SHWRS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY IFR...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW IN IFR ANY
ANY GIVEN AIRPORT SINCE LINE WILL LIKELY BREAK APART THROUGH
CENTRAL PART OF AREA AS IT COMES THROUGH MTNS..AND THEN MAY
REDEVELOP IN PIEDMONT. SO BLF AND LWB MAY SEE BEST CHANCE LATE
THIS MORNING WITH MODERATE SHOWERS...AND THEN BY 18Z TO 19Z AT LYH
AND DAN WHEN CONVECTION REACHES THAT AREA COULD BRIEFLY SEE IFR AS
WELL. SW WINDS WILL GUST TO AS HIGH AS AS 35 KTS OR SO AHEAD OF
THE LINE...AND THEN SHIFT WEST BEHIND IT WITH SIMILAR GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES FOR LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS WITH STORMS WILL
BE LYH AND DAN AFTER 18Z. THEN WINDS BY EARLY EVENING WILL SHIFT
MORE NW AND WEAKEN TO 10-15 KTS...WITH RETURN TO VFR. PERHAPS MVFR
BROKEN CIGS AT BLF AND LWB INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE CLEARING.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
PROLONGED PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD VFR CONTINUES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME RETURN MOISTURE AND
SHOWERS WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR COULD RETURN BY LATE MONDAY BUT
BETTER CHANCES FOR MVFR OR LOCAL IFR BY TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM WEST.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ043-044-
058-059.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ004>006.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NF/SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...PC
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...NF/RAB/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
654 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR WEDGE OF STABLE AIR WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL THEN SWEEP
THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAY TODAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 653 AM EDT FRIDAY...
MINOR UPDATE TO SLOW DOWN ARRIVAL OF LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR WEST
PER CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...JUST BY AN HOUR OR TWO. ALSO SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS AND LOWER DEW PTS EARLY THIS MORNING THAN WHAT WE
PREVIOUSLY HAD IN THE NORTHEAST...49 AT LYNCHBURG LAST HOUR...SO
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THERE. LINE OF CONVECTION STILL ABOUT 2 HRS
AWAY FROM THE WESTERN FRINGES OF CWA...AND BEGINNING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF WEAKENING IN TERMS OF REFLECTIVITY AS WELL AS TOTAL
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. STILL MAY EVENTUALLY NEED SOME SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS FOR GUSTY WINDS IF IT MAINTAINS SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS AS IT NEARS.
PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...
WEDGE FRONT REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING FROM
NORTH-CENTRAL NC THROUGH NEW RIVER VALLEY AND THEN UP THE
VIRGINIA-WEST VIRGINIA BORDER. LOWEST VISIBILITIES ARE ALONG
SOUTHERN BORDER IN NORTHERN NC AND SOUTHSIDE VA...AND IN
COORDINATION WITH WFO RAH ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THOSE
AREAS THROUGH 9 AM. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN LIFTING NORTH
QUICKLY AROUND SUNRISE OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER...AND SO MAY END UP
CANCELING SLIGHTLY EARLY.
OTHERWISE WE ARE WATCHING LINES OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...AND THERE ARE A FEW AREAS OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NOW
OUT AHEAD OF THESE...FROM UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND A FEW IN ERN
KENTUCKY. HRRR AND HIRES WRF ARW SEEM TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON THIS
AND TIME OF ARRIVAL IN WESTERN PART OF CWA...MAINLY BETWEEN 14Z
AND 15Z...SO DELAYED LIKELY POPS UNTIL THEN...WITH SOME LOW CHC
POPS STARTING AROUND 11Z IN CASE ANYTHING CONTINUES TO POP OUT
AHEAD. ALREADY GETTING SOME VERY LOW INSTABILITY VALUES IN FAR
WEST.
MOST HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE BREAKS THE LINE UP SOMEWHAT AS IT
MOVES INTO WESTERN SLOPES...ALTHOUGH SOME SCATTERED CELLS DO MAKE
IT THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...THEN THE LINE TRIES TO REFORM
EAST OF BLUE RIDGE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THINK HRRR MAY BE A
LITTLE TOO FAST WITH THE TIMING SHOWING EVERYTHING EAST OF CWA BY
22Z...BUT IT MAY NOT BE TOO FAR OFF. STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST
HOW STRONG THIS LINE WILL GET BEFORE GETTING EAST OF THE
AREA...WITH INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT LIMITED YET SHEAR QUITE STRONG.
SHOULD BE GOOD FORCING WITH FRONT HOWEVER...SO SLIGHT RISK FROM
MTV TO LYH AND POINTS EAST LOOKS REASONABLE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS
BEING PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN QLCS TYPE OF MODE EXPECTED. HAIL SHOULD
BE BE MINIMAL GIVEN LIMITED LOW TO MODEST INSTABILITY. KEPT POPS
LOW END OF CATEGORICAL ALL THE WAY THROUGH CWA...AS MOST LOCATIONS
REALLY SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A BRIEF SHOWER...BUT IT`S POSSIBLE LINE
COULD BREAK UP ENOUGH TO WHERE WE WILL NEED TO LOWER POPS IN
CENTRAL PART OF CWA BEFORE LINE REFORMS. ITS ALSO QUITE POSSIBLE
THAT THE LINE DOES NOT GET ITS ACT TOGETHER AGAIN UNTIL IT MAKES
IT EAST OF THE CWA...AND THUS LIMITED SEVERE WX
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IF THIS ENDS UP PUSHING THROUGH A LITTLE
FASTER.
CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE QUICKLY BY LATE AFT IN WEST AND EARLY
EVENING IN EAST...WITH A FEW LINGERING LOW CLOUDS IN WESTERN
SLOPES...BUT LATER ON OVERNIGHT MORE COMPLETE CLEARING EXPECTED
WITH NW WINDS 10-15 MPH.
WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON TEMPS TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND TRIED TO
SHOW SOME COOLING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND LINE OF CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON...PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT FRIDAY...
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST OF OUR REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
A LARGE 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY
AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A
MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN BRISK NW WINDS DURING THE DAY
AND WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IT WILL FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE
SPRING THAN RECENT DAYS...AT LEAST IN THOSE AREAS THAT ESCAPED THE
WEDGE. HIGHS WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL CLIMO NORMS FROM NEAR 60
FAR NW TO NEAR 70 FAR SE. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST ON
SATURDAY AND SHOULD BE PARKED ALMOST OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
DECENT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS THAT WILL CERTAINLY YIELD SOME LOWS IN
THE 30S IN THE COOLER VALLEYS. WIDELY SCATTERED FROST MAY BE A
POSSIBILITY. HIGH SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH
ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE DAY AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND TEMPS REACH LEVELS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. MONDAY LOOKS
TO BE A TRANSITION DAY AS A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
EMERGE FROM THE GULF COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHEAST FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME EVIDENT WITH INCREASNG CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY AND POPS RISING TO CHANCE BY MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...
OVERALL PATTERN WILL AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY MEAN 5H TROFFINESS
ACROSS THE EASTERN ROCKIES AS THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SW OPENS UP AND
RATHER FLAT FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EAST BENEATH PASSING WAVES WELL TO
THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A VERY MOIST OVERRUNNING TYPE SW FLOW BY
MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT
EMERGES INTO THE PLAINS BY DAY7. APPEARS DRIEST PERIODS WILL BE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL DIPPING
INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TO THE SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER
WEAK IMPULSES EJECTING SE ALONG THE BOUNDARY LIKELY TO PRODUCE SOME
SHOWER COVERAGE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT BEFORE THE LARGER
SWATH OF DEEPER MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN NE LATER TUESDAY WHEN WILL
HAVE HIGHER CHANCE POPS. WEAK WEDGE LOOKS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THEN
ERODE DURING THURSDAY AS THE RESIDUAL BACKDOOR FRONT STARTS TO LIFT
BACK NE AS WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE STRONGER COLD FRONT TO THE WEST.
THIS LIKELY THE PERIOD OF BETTER RAIN CHANCES ESPCLY BY THURSDAY WITH
DEEPER PWATS ARRIVING...AND PERHAPS MORE INSTABILITY WITH THE WARM
FRONT AROUND SO MAINLY HIGH CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
AFTER A COOL START WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S EARLY MONDAY...EXPECT
MAINLY UNIFORM TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK PENDING DEGREE OF INSOLATION EACH DAY AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 155 AM EDT FRIDAY...
WEDGE CONTINUES TO KEEP MUCH OF AREA SOCKED IN WITH IFR CIGS...AND
VSBYS HAVE BEEN UP AND DOWN SOME. ONLY AIRPORTS NOT IMPACTED ARE
BLF AND LWB...AND STILL THINK LWB MAY SEEM SOME PERIODS OF IFR
OVERNIGHT AS MID DECK CLEARS OUT...BUT SINCE CIRRUS AHEAD OF NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM CLOSE ON IT`S HEALS THIS MAY NOT LAST LONG OR
BOTTOM OUT AT LIFR. OTHERWISE AREAS WITHIN THE WEDGE...NAMELY
LYH/ROA/DAN/BCB...WILL SEE IFR-LIFR CIGS AND VARYING VSBYS ALL
NIGHT.
FOR FRIDAY...JUST AHEAD OF FRONT BY MID MORNING IFR WEDGE
MAY BRIEFLY ERODE BUT THEN FRONTAL CONVECTION SHOULD BRING MVFR
CIGS BY MID TO LATE MORNING WEST AND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
EAST...WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS. A MORE SOLID LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT APPEARS MOST LIKELY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...WITH A LESSER THREAT TO THE WEST SINCE CONVECTION
SHOULD BE DYING AS IT ARRIVES ON WESTERN SLOPES. WINDS WILL GUST
FROM THE SW AFTER WEDGE ERODES SOON AFTER SUNRISE MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH SUSTAINED 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS ALL AREAS.
HIGHER POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS...WHICH AGAIN WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO
IMPACT LYH AND DAN. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW
10-12KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS IN MOUNTAINS DURING LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...WITH RETURN TO VFR BY EVENING.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
PROLONGED PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD VFR CONTINUES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME RETURN MOISTURE AND
SHOWERS WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR COULD RETURN BY LATE MONDAY BUT
BETTER CHANCES FOR MVFR OR LOCAL IFR BY TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM WEST.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ043-044-
058-059.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ004>006.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NF/SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...PC
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...NF/RAB/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
202 PM PDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE
AREA AND BRING DRY WEATHER WITH A DAY TO DAY WARMING TREND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN IS PROVIDING OUR
AREA WITH A DRY DAY ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND TODAY WITH CURRENT
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING 4-6 DEG F ABOVE YDAY. AN UPPER LOW
WELL OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST NEAR 30N/131W IS SPREADING SOME
HIGH CLOUDS INTO CENTRAL CA WHICH HAS SLOWED THE WARMING TREND A
BIT...BUT OTHERWISE HAS HAD LITTLE IMPACT FOR OUR AREA.
THE 12Z WRF AND THE HOURLY HRRR HAVE BEEN INDICATING SOME
INSTABILITY AND CAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH MIGHT ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS
NEAR AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIERRA CREST LATER TODAY. WITH
OFFSHORE THE LOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEAST AND MOVE
FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL PUSH INLAND INTO CA AND BRING CONTINUED WARMING TO OUR AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY FLAT WITH A
WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILING OVER NORCAL. A WEAK IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO
PUSH THROUGH THE RIDGE AND CROSS CENTRAL CA ON SUNDAY WHICH MIGHT
PROVIDE FOR ENOUGH LIFT FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
NEAR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA CREST. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON
MONDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING THE PAC NW COAST.
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A LESS AMPLIFIED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
AND KEEP MOST OF THE MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH
OF OUR AREA. WILL LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA CREST ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONTAL BAND PUSHES
THROUGH CENTRAL CA...BUT THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
BREEZY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES COOLING TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS. RIDGING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO BUILD
INTO CA ON WEDNESDAY THEN AMPLIFY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH
WILL BRING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER TO OUR
AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA
INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 04-10 95:1989 55:1965 60:1989 34:1999
KFAT 04-11 95:1908 53:1998 59:1908 34:1955
KFAT 04-12 96:1908 52:1922 64:1904 34:1953
KBFL 04-10 95:1989 56:1965 61:1989 33:1999
KBFL 04-11 98:1904 53:1965 61:1982 30:1903
KBFL 04-12 98:1908 52:1956 59:1978 33:1903
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...BEAN
SYNOPSIS...DS
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
412 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE LOCAL AREA...FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON
SATURDAY...AND THEN SLIDES SOUTH AND THEN EAST OF THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE NEXT WEEK
WITH A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WARM FRONT JUST SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND AS OF 18Z. DESPITE
THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT...FLOW OFF THE OCEAN WATERS ADVECTING
HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE THE REGION SHOULD CONTINUE THE FOGGY
CONDITIONS. THEREFORE...ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM FOR
LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT. FOG AND DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH. LINE OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT IN EASTERN PA AND NY IS ON THE
DOORSTEP OF THE WESTERN SECTION OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS...RADAR COVERAGE HAS DECREASED WITH THIS LINE.
SO...IT WILL REMAIN TO BE SEEN IF THE LINE HOLDS UP. HRRR AND NAM
KEEP IT RATHER DISORGANIZED AS IT MOVES THROUGH...SO REMOVED ANY
MENTION OF THUNDER. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANY
FOG IN THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE BY THEN...IF NOT AN HOUR OR SO
PRIOR. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS TRANQUIL THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...THOUGH IT WILL BE BREEZY AS WE WILL MIX TO ABOUT 850 MB.
DESPITE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...IT WILL BE WARMER ON SATURDAY
THAN FRIDAY DUE TO FULL SUNSHINE. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
SATURDAY NIGHT...IT WILL BE CHILLY OUTSIDE THE NY METRO
AREA...WITH SOME SPOTS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING FOR LOWS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA WITH NIGHT TIME LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWS 40S.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT IN MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT BEST CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK MIDWEEK THEN PUSHES OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FRIDAY...BRINGING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE
LEVELS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING
AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH...AND A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. THE LATTER OF WHICH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE WARM FRONT IS SLATED TO MOVE
THROUGH 18Z TO 20Z.
THIS WILL BE A RATHER CHALLENGING FORECAST THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH OF THE TERMINALS AND WINDS VEER
AROUND TO THE SW. THIS COULD RESULT IN JUST ENOUGH MIXING FOR
GRADUALLY IMPROVING CIGS AND VSBYS. THE LIMITING FACTOR HOWEVER IS
HIGHER DEW POINT AIR MOVING ACROSS THE COOLER NEAR SHORE WATERS
WHICH COULD BRING IN ADVECTION FOG OFF THE OCEAN. THUS...
CONDITIONS CAN ABRUPTLY CHANGE...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE TERMINALS
NEAR THE COAST.
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM 00Z TO 03Z.
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER EMBEDDED WITH THESE SHOWERS....BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.
S/SW 10-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON. W WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT DEVELOP AFTER 12Z
SAT.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO
VFR...MAINLY AFTER 03Z.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING CIG AND VSBY
FLIGHT CATEGORIES.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING CIG AND VSBY
FLIGHT CATEGORIES.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING CIG AND VSBY
FLIGHT CATEGORIES.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING CIG AND VSBY
FLIGHT CATEGORIES.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING CIG AND VSBY
FLIGHT CATEGORIES.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING CIG AND VSBY
FLIGHT CATEGORIES.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SAT NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR. SW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
.TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY
FOR SEAS...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE MARGINAL WIND GUSTS AS WELL.
SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS INTO SAT...BUT HAVE HELD
OFF EXTENDING THE ADVSY FOR NOW WHICH FITS WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES.
DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT ALL WATERS THIS EVENING. DENSE
FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 11 PM. VSBY COULD DROP TO LESS
THAN 1/2 MILE AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO CLIMB OVER THE COLD
WATERS. THE WATERS SURROUNDING NYC COULD SEE LATE DAY OR EARLY
EVENING TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS FRI. APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
ALLOW THE FOG TO LIFT...MAINLY AFTER 11 PM.
SUB SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
OF THE OCEAN WATERS. SEAS AND WINDS INCREASE TO SCA ON OCEAN
WATERS LATE MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND
REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS INTO TUESDAY. SEAS AND WINDS FALL BACK TO
BELOW SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
OCEAN WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF QPF EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH LOCAL AMTS 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER TSTMS IN THE NYC METRO AREA.
DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. NO WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ078>081.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-
338-340-345-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...FIG/JP
HYDROLOGY...FIG/JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
139 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH
MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY DRY AND BRISK
CONDITIONS OPEN THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SUNNY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
GRADUALLY WARMING UP ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S INTO THE LOWER 50S. COLDEST TEMPERATURES JUST EAST OF
THE HIGHER HIGHER OF SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE BERKSHIRES AND IN
PORTION OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY. THE FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE
FILLED BACK IN.
THE 12Z KALY SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL PRE WARM
FRONTAL MARINE-LIKE INVERSION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER /H925-H850/.
THIS LID WILL LIKELY ERODE WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN THE COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD WRN NY WILL
QUICKLY FOLLOW.
SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY
THE COLD FRONT AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN RATHER WEAK...AND
ALSO THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS PASS MAINLY TO OUR N AND W.
HIGHER RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE COLD FRONT REMAINS GENERALLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. WILL
INDICATE MAINLY HIGH CHC POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPS WITHHI9GHS EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST INTO THE
EARLY PM AT 15-25 MPH...ESP ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
TACONICS/GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT
PASSES...EVEN STRONGER WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE SOME GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH COULD OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...EVENING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR AREAS NEAR AND
E OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. SKIES SHOULD THEN BECOME CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY...BEFORE CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INCREASE
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES. SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR LESS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S.
SATURDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
CLOUDS...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN/SNOW...MAINLY
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN VT. SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH PASSES. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER
STRONG THROUGH SATURDAY AS DEEP MIXING OCCURS. EXPECT WIND GUSTS
TO REACH 35-45 MPH IN MANY AREAS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...STRONGEST IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT MAY ONLY REACH THE 30S.
SAT NT-SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SAT NT...AND SUNNY
SKIES ON SUNDAY. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS WILL BE RATHER
COOL...GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. SUN AFTERNOON MAXES
SHOULD BE QUITE MILD WITH LIGHT WINDS...WITH LOWER/MID 60S IN
VALLEYS AND MAINLY 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WE BEGIN THIS LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST UNDER TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
MEANWHILE...RATHER STRONG AND FAST MOVING PACIFIC ENERGY COMES
ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EJECTS OUT ONTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE...THE RETURN FLOW
COMBINING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC ENERGY WILL ALLOW DEEPER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF TO BECOME ENTRAINED ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE IMPACT FOR OUR
REGION WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVING MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
QPF FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW TRENDS OF A BIT HIGHER
AMOUNTS.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY. HOWEVER..CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY KEEP CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE COOL WITH MAINLY 50S AND LOWER 60S EXPECTED.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SURFACE TO
ALOFT WILL NOT ONLY KEEP OUR WEATHER TRANQUIL...BUT WITH THERMAL
PROFILES MODERATING AND MID APRIL SUNSHINE IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE
SPRING THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. AVERAGE HIGHS CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND PERHAPS NEAR 70F WITH FAVORABLE
DOWNSLOPING WITHIN THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE 30S ACROSS THE TERRAIN TO 40S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WE CONTINUE TO OBSERVE MAINLY MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ACROSS THE
REGION WITH RESPECT TO CIGS...EXCEPT FOR KPSF WHERE SOME IFR CIGS
WILL LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. EXPECT AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF
WEATHER FOR THE REGION WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS.
REGION RADAR SHOWS ANOTHER BATCH OF CONVECTION TO MOVE ACROSS THE
TAF SITES THIS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THEN...PER THE HRRR AND 4KM SPC
WRF REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS...SEEMS THERE WILL BE A REDUCTION IN
PRECIP COVERAGE AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. LATER IN THE
DAY...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH A CHC-SCT CONVECTION ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. FOR NOW...WE WILL PLACE A TEMPO GROUP AND MONITOR TRENDS.
FRIDAY EVENING WITH FROPA...WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT FROM THE
WESTERLY DIRECTION WITH FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE INTO KPSF WHERE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER MVFR CIGS A BIT LONGER.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TODAY DUE TO
EXPECTED WET AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AND MAINLY COOL WEATHER.
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...BRINGING RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A MILDER AIR MASS
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH MORE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY DRY AND BRISK CONDITIONS
OPEN THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. SUNNY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR
SUNDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BEFORE
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PERIODS OF RAIN...ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...WILL
OCCUR WITH THESE FEATURES TODAY.
RAINFALL AMTS OVERNIGHT GENERALLY RANGED FROM ONE QUARTER TO ONE
HALF INCH. ANOTHER ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY. THE LATEST MMEFS /ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE/
INDICATES RIVER LEVELS WILL RISE BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...WITH
SEVERAL POINTS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING ACTION STAGE. THE ONLY
POINT THAT MAY REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE IS GILBOA. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER RISES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN BANK RISES ARE POSSIBLE.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW
PASSING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE PRODUCING QPF OF
LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...FRUGIS/BGM/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...KL/BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
103 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL STRENGTHEN
WHILE IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA LATER TODAY. ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTS WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN SATURDAY AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
12:30 PM UPDATE: THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO BE HALTED BY THE
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WITH A VERY STRONG INVERSION IN
PLACE. THIS HAS KEPT IN LOW CLOUDS, FOG AND DRIZZLE FOR MOST OF
US. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA, THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS
RESULTED IN SOME WARMING OF TEMPERATURES BUT CLOUDS REMAIN THICK.
ANY DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF A BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL PA
IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY COMPARED TO EARLIER TODAY.
TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD QUITE A BIT AS ALL
STAT GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED QUITE A BIT. THE RAP WAS USED A
STARTING POINT WITH EDITS MADE DOWNWARD ON TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. IT IS STILL NOT OUT OF QUESTION FOR A
BRIEF WINDOW OF MIXING AND A QUICK TEMPERATURE SPIKE WARMER THAN
FORECASTED BUT OUR WINDOW IS CLOSING. TOOK OUT ANY CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION TILL 20Z AND BACKED OFF ANY SHOWER CHANCES TILL MID-
AFTERNOON GIVEN THE LOOK OF CURRENT RADAR. A SMALL WINDOW FOR
THUNDER STILL EXISTS LATER TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THRU THE AREA THIS EVENING.
CONSENSUS OF THE CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING HIRES GUIDANCE HAS THE ONGOING
CONVECTION WITH THIS FRONT MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN NJ AND DE COAST
WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO OF 00Z, SO SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
A SHARP WIND SHIFT FROM SLY TO NWLY WILL OCCUR WITH THE FROPA.
EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR OUT AS WELL DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING.
THE INITIAL SURGE OF CAA IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT. LEANED ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS IN THIS
SETUP. MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM NEAR 40F IN THE POCONOS TO THE LOWER 50S
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT MONDAY. IT
APPEARS THE THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING SO NO
RESIDUAL POPS ARE NEEDED FOR THE REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY...BUT IT APPEARS THAT ONLY SOME EXTRA CLOUDINESS
N/W WILL BE THE ONLY RESULT OF THIS. IT WILL BE BREEZY ON SATURDAY
WITH A DECENT DRY NW WIND EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL WITH UPPER 50S N/W AND LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. THE FAIR
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES WARMER EACH DAY. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
N/W MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY WILL FEATURE SOME SHOWERY WEATHER AS A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE N/W MON NIGHT
AND S/W TUESDAY. THE FEATURE LOOKS RATHER PROGRESSIVE...SO ONLY
LIGHT QPF IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER TUE/WED
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT READINGS WILL STILL BE CLOSE TO OR A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOSTLY 60S ACROSS THE AREA.
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED WED...BUT THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
SHOWN APPROACHING THE AREA FOR THE LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z
EC/GFS MODELS SHOW A SLOWER TIMING WITH THIS FEATURE AND KEEPS MUCH
OF OUR AREA DRY. WE THEREFORE HAVE TONED DOWN THE WPC CHC POPS
BACK TO SLGT CHC TO KEEP THE WORDING OUT OF THE ZONES.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THU...AND MAYBE EVEN INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
18Z TAFS PREDICTING THE RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING, BUT
CONTINUED IFR CONDITIONS PRIOR.
THIS AFTERNOON...IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING AT NORTHWEST AND
KPHL AREA AIRPORTS. SOME MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT
SE AIRPORTS.
PCPN, A BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE FORMING AND MOVING
ACROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 19Z AND 23Z. A BY PRODUCT OF THE COOL
DAMP AIR REMAINING AT THE SFC IS THAT THUNDER CHANCES ARE REDUCED
AND ONLY CONFIDENT TO INCLUDE AT KACY AND KMIV WITH THIS PACKAGE.
WINDS, SOUTH WINDS SHOULD START WORKING THEIR WAY TO THE SURFACE.
SUSTAINED SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTINESS
POSSIBLE FROM KPHL AREA AIRPORTS EAST AND SOUTH.
THIS EVENING...CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR THIS EVENING AFTER THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. TIMING SHOULD BE AROUND 00Z. WINDS WILL BECOME
WEST AT SPEEDS AT AROUND 10 KNOTS.
OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWEST WIND
DIRECTION AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. IF THERE ARE CIGS NW TERMINALS THEY
SHOULD BE AT VFR LEVEL.
SATURDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS. POSSIBLE
VFR CU BASED CIGS AT NORTHWEST AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. NORTHWESTWINDS
WILL AVERAGE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH PEAK GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30
KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.
SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR BUT LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
IN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
BASED ON CAPE MAY LEWES FERRY REPORT WE EXTENDED THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY INTO LOWER DELAWARE BAY.
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FOR ALL OF
TODAY. WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS ADVECTNG IN FROM THE SOUTH AND A VERY
STRONG/SHALLOW INVERSION, THE FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL NOT BE ABLE
TO BE MIXED OUT. THE FOG MAY PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING UNTIL
AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THRU.
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE THREAT WILL MAINLY BE FROM HAZARDOUS SEAS WITH WAVES OF 4 TO 7
FT DURING THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR 25 KT
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BUT
WARM AIR ATOP THE COLD WATERS WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR DEEP
MIXING. SCT TSTMS EARLY THIS MRNG WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
THERE IS ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY
THIS EVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A VERY STABLE LAYER ABOVE THE SURFACE
WILL LIMIT THE WIND THREAT BUT STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL
AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING OUR SOUTHERN WATERS.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MON THRU TUE...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1241 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL STRENGTHEN
WHILE IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA LATER TODAY. ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTS WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN SATURDAY AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
12:30 PM UPDATE: THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO BE HALTED BY THE
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WITH A VERY STRONG INVERSION IN
PLACE. THIS HAS KEPT IN LOW CLOUDS, FOG AND DRIZZLE FOR MOST OF
US. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA, THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS
RESULTED IN SOME WARMING OF TEMPERATURES BUT CLOUDS REMAIN THICK.
ANY DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF A BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL PA
IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY COMPARED TO EARLIER TODAY.
TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD QUITE A BIT AS ALL
STAT GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED QUITE A BIT. THE RAP WAS USED A
STARTING POINT WITH EDITS MADE DOWNWARD ON TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. IT IS STILL NOT OUT OF QUESTION FOR A
BRIEF WINDOW OF MIXING AND A QUICK TEMPERATURE SPIKE WARMER THAN
FORECASTED BUT OUR WINDOW IS CLOSING. TOOK OUT ANY CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION TILL 20Z AND BACKED OFF ANY SHOWER CHANCES TILL MID-
AFTERNOON GIVEN THE LOOK OF CURRENT RADAR. A SMALL WINDOW FOR
THUNDER STILL EXISTS LATER TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THRU THE AREA THIS EVENING.
CONSENSUS OF THE CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING HIRES GUIDANCE HAS THE ONGOING
CONVECTION WITH THIS FRONT MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN NJ AND DE COAST
WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO OF 00Z, SO SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
A SHARP WIND SHIFT FROM SLY TO NWLY WILL OCCUR WITH THE FROPA.
EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR OUT AS WELL DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING.
THE INITIAL SURGE OF CAA IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT. LEANED ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS IN THIS
SETUP. MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM NEAR 40F IN THE POCONOS TO THE LOWER 50S
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT MONDAY. IT
APPEARS THE THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING SO NO
RESIDUAL POPS ARE NEEDED FOR THE REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY...BUT IT APPEARS THAT ONLY SOME EXTRA CLOUDINESS
N/W WILL BE THE ONLY RESULT OF THIS. IT WILL BE BREEZY ON SATURDAY
WITH A DECENT DRY NW WIND EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL WITH UPPER 50S N/W AND LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. THE FAIR
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES WARMER EACH DAY. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
N/W MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY WILL FEATURE SOME SHOWERY WEATHER AS A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE N/W MON NIGHT
AND S/W TUESDAY. THE FEATURE LOOKS RATHER PROGRESSIVE...SO ONLY
LIGHT QPF IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER TUE/WED
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT READINGS WILL STILL BE CLOSE TO OR A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOSTLY 60S ACROSS THE AREA.
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED WED...BUT THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
SHOWN APPROACHING THE AREA FOR THE LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z
EC/GFS MODELS SHOW A SLOWER TIMING WITH THIS FEATURE AND KEEPS MUCH
OF OUR AREA DRY. WE THEREFORE HAVE TONED DOWN THE WPC CHC POPS
BACK TO SLGT CHC TO KEEP THE WORDING OUT OF THE ZONES.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THU...AND MAYBE EVEN INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF THE
MORNING. EXPECT VSBYS TO IMPROVE WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE
WHILE THE IMPROVEMENT OF CIGS SHOULD OCCUR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND
BE MORE GRADUAL. FORECASTING THE TIMING OF THE IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS
FROM LIFR TO IFR TO MVFR IS RATHER TRICKY AND WILL DEPEND ON HOW
QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT MOVES THRU THE AREA, WHICH IS STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH OUR REGION
BETWEEN ABOUT 1900Z AND 2300Z. CONFINED MENTION OF TSRA IN THE TAFS
TO THE PHL TERMINALS SOUTHWARD WHERE CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE
INITIATION IS HIGHER.
LIGHT SELY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE S-SW THIS
AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. COLD FROPA WILL OCCUR
FROM WEST TO EAST AND BE MARKED BY A WINDSHIFT OUT OF THE NW BETWEEN
23Z AND 03Z THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.
SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR BUT LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
IN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
BASED ON CAPE MAY LEWES FERRY REPORT WE EXTENDED THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY INTO LOWER DELAWARE BAY.
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FOR ALL OF
TODAY. WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS ADVECTNG IN FROM THE SOUTH AND A VERY
STRONG/SHALLOW INVERSION, THE FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL NOT BE ABLE
TO BE MIXED OUT. THE FOG MAY PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING UNTIL
AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THRU.
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE THREAT WILL MAINLY BE FROM HAZARDOUS SEAS WITH WAVES OF 4 TO 7
FT DURING THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR 25 KT
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BUT
WARM AIR ATOP THE COLD WATERS WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR DEEP
MIXING. SCT TSTMS EARLY THIS MRNG WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
THERE IS ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY
THIS EVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A VERY STABLE LAYER ABOVE THE SURFACE
WILL LIMIT THE WIND THREAT BUT STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL
AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING OUR SOUTHERN WATERS.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MON THRU TUE...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
359 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1115 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
CONDITIONS WILL BE WINDY TODAY AS THE LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES
BEGINS TO PULL AWAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING
BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE
REGION. BUT THEN FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT THE REGION WILL BE DRY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THE WINDS AND CLOUD COVERAGE
DECREASE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
987MB SURFACE LOW LIFTING INTO QUEBEC AT PRESS TIME WITH A
SECONDARY VORT MAX AND SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH CURRENTLY ROTATING
THROUGH CHICAGO. BRIEF RELAXATION OF PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY HAS ALLOWED WIND SPEEDS TO SUBSIDE A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM SURFACE OBS SHOW NUMEROUS GUSTS OVER
40 KTS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY DEEP MIXING HEIGHTS IN PLACE OVER OUR AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH 50 KT WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND A GOOD PUSH OF ISENTROPIC DESCENT SEEN MOVING IN BEHIND
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. MSAS ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS A DECENT PRESSURE
RISE-FALL COUPLET ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THAT MAY BE HELPING PRODUCE
THE HIGHER WIND GUSTS. WE DO START TO LOSE DIURNAL SURFACE
HEATING/BETTER PBL MIXING BY THE TIME THIS TROUGH MAKES IT TO OUR
AREA BUT AM CONCERNED WE COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES...DURING THE EARLY
EVENING AND AM HESITANT TO SOUND THE "ALL CLEAR" ON STRONG WIND
GUSTS. HAVE THEREFORE DECIDED TO EXTEND AND EXPAND THE WIND
ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN PLACE.
THIS SECONDARY PV ANOMALY...EXTENDING DEEP INTO THE
TROPOSPHERE...MAY ALSO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AS IT ROTATES THROUGH
THE REGION THIS EVENING. UPSTREAM RADAR/SURFACE OBS SHOW DECENT
SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...OCCURRING WITH THIS WAVE
AND SUSPECT SIMILAR RESULTS IN OUR LOCAL AREA. MOST OF THE LATEST
HI-RES/RAPID UPDATE MODELS GENERATE AT LEAST SOME QPF IN OUR
NORTHERN CWA AND SEE NO REASON TO ARGUE BASED ON STRENGTH/DEPTH OF
THE ANOMALY SEEN IN BOTH WV IMAGERY AND MODEL PLAN VIEWS. HAVE
THEREFORE RAISED POPS FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES IN THE 22-03Z
TIMEFRAME. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THESE SHOWERS COULD HELP MIX DOWN
SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE THIS
EVENING....PROVIDING FURTHER SUPPORT FOR A SIMPLE EXTENSION OF THE
CURRENT WIND ADVISORY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD EASILY DROP INTO THE MID 30S UNDER STRONG CAA.
STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO INHERITED FORECAST...WHICH WAS SIMILAR TO
LATEST MOS GUIDANCE. WELCOME RETURN TO MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER BY
TOMORROW AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE ANTICYCLONE BUILD
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. SOME LATE DAY WAA AND FULL SUN SHOULD PUSH US TO
AROUND 60F DESPITE COOL START.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OUT QUIET...WITH AN AMPLIFYING 500MB
RIDGE ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
SATURDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL START OUT CLEAR IN THE EVENING...THEN
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WEST AND CENTRAL AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOWS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE BUT NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST GIVEN
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. KEPT GOING FORECAST OF TEMPS IN THE
MID-UPPER 30S.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND FORECAST COMPLEXITY RETURN LATE
WEEKEND AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...WITH A COMPLICATED
PATTERN AND THE ASSOCIATED MODEL DISAGREEMENT.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING THE CWA SITS ON THE OUTER EDGE OF THE SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH BY THIS TIME IS JUST OFF THE EASTERN US
COAST. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS VARIOUS SHORTWAVES PROPAGATE THROUGH THE
FLOW FROM THE DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER MANITOBA. BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH/COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM MN/WI SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GENERAL DISAGREEMENT
AMONG MODELS ON EXACT TIMING OF ANY PRECIPITATION...WITH THE GFS
BEING MOST PROGRESSIVE AND DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN OUR CWA...AND THE NAM/GEM ECMWF
WAITING UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING TO BRING IN PRECIPITATION.
THE ECMWF CAMP IS ALSO A BIT SHARPER WITH THE UL TROUGH...WHEREAS
THE GFS IS MORE BROAD. DECIDED TO GO WITH A GFS/ECMWF COMPROMISE FOR
NOW WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF POPS. THIS BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING AND HAS IT EXITING THE EASTERN CWA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AND HAVE POPS/WINDS REFLECTING THIS. MOISTURE WILL BE
AMPLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 1.3 INCHES
WITH RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SFC HIGH AND APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH TO WEST...PULLING MOISTURE RIGHT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
FRONT MOVEMENT SHOULD BE PRETTY QUICK...AND INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL
SO DONT REALLY HAVE ANY CONCERNS FOR STORMS WITH THIS. DID ADD A
SLGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER LATE SUN NIGHT WITH SOME MODELS GENERATING
100-200 J/KG OF MUCAPE...BUT NOT REALLY CONFIDENT IN THAT OCCURRING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN UNDERNEATH A BUILDING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH
MODELS APPEAR TO AGREE ON. AS A RESULT...KEPT THINGS DRY FOR THAT
TIME.
HOWEVER...BY MID TO LATE WEEK...PROBLEMS DEVELOP AS THEY
ATTEMPT TO RESOLVE SPLIT FLOW ALOFT...WITH A TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS 00Z WED...AND ANOTHER
TROUGH/POTENTIAL CLOSED LOW MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIE THROUGH THURSDAY. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF DEVELOP A SURFACE/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE DAKOTAS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR
CWA...AND INTO KY/TN. THIS BRINGS US SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY...AND HIGHER POPS INTO THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS
THE PATTERN SOLIDIFIES INTO A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE MIDWEST. THE LOW
EVENTUALLY DRIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...BUT AS TO
STRENGTH/TIMING/EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH THE LOW MOVES....ITS ALL UP IN
THE AIR. KEPT CONSENSUS CHANCE POPS IN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH
CHANCE THUNDER ONLY ON THURSDAY WHEN BOTH MODELS HAVE US IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THE OCCLUDED SFC LOW. CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS
LOWER...GIVEN MODEL DISCREPANCIES AND DIFFICULTIES HANDLING THE
MERGING FEATURES. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...LOOKS TO STAY NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S/UPPER 50S NEAR THE
LAKE/ AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
DEEP MIXING AND TIGHT GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN WESTERLY WIND GUSTS
OF 25-30 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A STRONG
MIDLEVEL VORT MAX WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING
AND MAY GENERATE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. WELL MIXED/DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL LIKELY KEEP CEILINGS ABOVE 3 KFT DURING THIS TIME
THOUGH. STRONG RIDGING AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL THEN ENSURE VFR
CONDITIONS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077>081.
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...AGD
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1252 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.AVIATION...
STRONG WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 30 KNOTS AND LOWER THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND AROUND 20 KNOTS BY SUNSET. WINDS WILL REMAIN
OUT OF THE WESTERLY QUADRANT THROUGH THE PERIOD. VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS SW-TO-NE EROSION OF STRATUS ALONG WITH THINNING DUE TO DIURNAL
MIXING. MIXING AND DRY ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO MID-AFTN
EVENTUALLY SCOURING OUT LOW CLOUD AND GIVING WAY TO VFR.
A COMAPCT WAVE OVER SOUTHEAST MN IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS
EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTN. THIS WAVE IS
MODELED TO TRACK ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND BRING A VERY BRIEF PERIOD
OF SHOWERS TO THE DETROIT AREA 23Z-03Z. UPSTREAM SURFACE OBS SUGGEST
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. BY THE
TIME SHOWERS DEPART, THE COLUMN SHOULD BE STABILIZED ALLOWING FOR
DECOUPLING AND AN END TO WIND GUSTS. WIND MAY HOLD ON JUST AN HOUR
OR TWO LONGER FOR KFNT/KMBS.
FOR DTW...GUSTS PEAKED EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, GUSTS AROUND 30
KNOTS WILL CONTINUE WITH WINDS WSW WINDS HOLDING VERY NEAR CROSSWIND
THRESHOLDS THROUGH ABOUT 22Z. TARGET PERIOD FOR LIGHT SHOWERS IS
FOCUSED ON 01-02Z WITH MVFR CIG FOR AN EXTRA HOUR ON EITHER SIDE.
WINDS WILL ALSO BRIEFLY VEER TOWARD THE NORTHWEST DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CIGS AOB 5KFT.
* HIGH IN EXCEEDING CROSSWIND THRESHOLDS FROM 260-280 DEGREES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 952 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
UPDATE...
ALL IS WELL WITH THE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
TODAY WITH NUMEROUS SITES ALREADY VERIFYING BY 13Z THIS MORNING. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY EASE 18-00Z AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
FROM THE STRAITS THIS MORNING INTO WESTERN QUEBEC THIS EVENING. IN
ADDITION, A VERY COMPACT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES OVER MN WILL IMPINGE ON THE
RESIDENT LOW PRESSURE FIELD BY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ACTUALLY
REDUCE THE PGF FROM WEST TO EAST AS IT SUPPRESSES THE ANTICYCLONE TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST. A ROUND OF EVENING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THIS WAVE TRANSLATES FROM MINNEAPOLIS THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN 00-03Z.
IN THE VERY NEAR TERM, HOWEVER, POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER END WIND GUSTS
REMAINS A CONCERN THROUGH ABOUT 18Z. WHILE THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SETUP
FAVORS WIDESPREAD GUSTS AROUND 40 KTS, ACTIVE CONVECTION WITHIN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MAY LEAD TO MORE EFFICIENT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT. OBSERVATIONS WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO
ENSURE GUSTS DON`T GET OUT OF HAND, BUT ATTM THERE ARE NO IMMEDIATE
PLANS TO ALTER THE INHERITED WIND ADVISORY. A FRESH ROUND OF
GRIDS/ZONES WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 349 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH PULLED THE ACTIVE WARM FRONT UP
THROUGH SE MI LATE THURSDAY IS NOW LOCATED OVER NORTHERN LOWER MI.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NE THROUGH THE DAY. LINGERING
CONVECTION OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB SHOULD LIFT OUT OF THE
AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS AREA HAS SPLIT FROM THE COLD
FRONTAL CONVECTION LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH OVER IN/OH...WHICH HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED BY THE HRRR FOR THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO POP UP IN THE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS BUT NOT MORE THAN
A CHANCE POP FOR ANY LOCATION.
AS THE CONVECTION BEGINS TO WANE...ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD WINDS.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT HAS BEEN ABLE TO GUST UP TO
25 KNOTS OVER SW LOWER MI. THIS WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE STATE OVER US
PRIOR TO 09Z. WINDS WILL VEER TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND
INCREASE FURTHER AS THE TIGHT E/W PRESSURE GRADIENT LIFTS UP INTO SE
MI. THESE POST FRONTAL WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING TO AROUND 35 KNOTS
THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS IA/IL/MO WITH AN INITIAL POP RIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT CLOSER TO 40 KNOTS. MODELS SHOW THIS TREND CONTINUING
ACROSS SOUTHERN MI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL DIURNAL
SUPPORT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP MIXED LAYER DEVELOPING BEHIND
THE FRONT UP TO AROUND 850MB WITH STEEP LL LAPSE RATES DUE TO
IMPRESSIVE CAA BETWEEN THE SFC AND 700MB. IN THIS MIXED
LAYER...MODELS ARE SHOWING WINDS OF AROUND 50 KNOTS AS LOW AS 925MB
IN THE COLUMN PEAKING FROM 09-14Z BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING. THIS
SHOULD PRODUCE WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS AROUND 40-50 MPH AT THE SFC
THUS THE WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE DOES
REMAIN THE CHANCE OF HIGHER GUSTS REACHING THE SFC...ESPECIALLY IF A
FEW SHALLOW CONVECTIVE CELLS CAN DEVELOP AS THE LINGERING TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. AT THIS POINT WILL HOLD WITH THE ADVISORY AND ALLOW
THE NEXT SHIFT TO ASSESS TRENDS HEADING INTO THE DIURNAL CYCLE. A
SHORT FUSE HIGH WIND WARNING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SLOWLY
WANING TOWARD THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING A COMPACT
VORT MAX DIVING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING TROUGH AND TRACKING
ACROSS THE MI/OH BORDER BETWEEN ABOUT 00-06Z SATURDAY. ADDED A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THIS PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SE MI WILL BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THE COURSE OF THE
WEEKEND...ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE FCST TO BUILD FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SUPPORT A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CORE OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WILL
PUSH OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY BUT WILL STILL SUPPORT
DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S. LOW LEVEL WARMING WILL GET A BOOST ON
SUNDAY UNDER STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS. THIS AND
DECENT MIXING DEPTHS SUGGEST DAYTIME HIGHS ON SUN WILL RISE WELL
INTO THE 60S.
A FAST MOVING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO EJECT OUT OF THE
GULF OF ALASKA UPPER LOW AND TRACK ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE LATEST
GFS AND ECMWF IN BRINGING THE ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT ACROSS SE MI MON
MORNING. THE BETTER LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS ARE SHOWN TO PASS ACROSS
THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION. FORECAST AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID LEVEL
WAVE AS IT ROTATES INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WILL HOWEVER OFFER AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR INCREASED LOW LEVEL SW FLOW TO ADVECT A PLUME OF
DEEP MOISTURE INTO LOWER MI ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT. THIS WILL
REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON
MORNING.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT. DAYTIME HEATING AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL HOWEVER BOOST
MIXING DEPTHS AND SHOULD REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS INTO THE 60S
BOTH MON AND TUES. REBOUNDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION
AND DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE OF
MID APRIL SEASONAL NORMS DURING THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE AREAS TODAY. A DEEP
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON THIS
MORNING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS SYSTEM IS NOW DRIVING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. OBSERVATIONS ON THE COLD SIDE OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE IN
STRONG SUPPORT OF WIDESPREAD GALES. GALES WILL STEADILY DIMINISH
TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH WILL INFLUENCE THE REGION
DURING THE WEEKEND AND WILL SUSTAIN LIGHT WINDS ON SATURDAY. DESPITE
A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WIND ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH DEPARTS TO THE
MID ATLANTIC...STRONG STABILITY OVER THE COLD LAKES WILL KEEP WIND
SPEEDS BELOW 20 KNOTS.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ047>049-053>055-
060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ363-421-422-
441>443-462>464.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ361-362.
LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ444.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....JVC
UPDATE.......JVC
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1251 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
HAD A REPORT OF RAIN/SLEET/SNOW 3N OF BRD FROM AN OBSERVER. HAVE
ADDED MIXED WORDING TO THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. VERY SHARP VORT MAX WAS MOVING THROUGH THIS AREA ATTM AND
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. REMOVED THE MENTION OF SNOW OVER NW
WI AS SHORT WAVE THAT WAS AFFECTING THIS AREA WAS DEPARTING. REST
OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS WERE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA AT
07Z. ONE WAS LOCATED IN NW MN AND THE SECOND IN CENTRAL WI. THEIR
ASSOCIATED TROFS WERE ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL AND DRIVING
SOME PCPN...MAINLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
REGION. THE LAST OF THE SNOW WAS OVER THE FAR EASTERN EDGE OF THE NW
WI FORECAST AREA WHERE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS WERE FOUND. THE SNOW IN NW
WI WILL EXIT THE AREA BY 815Z AND HAVE CANCELED THE ADVISORY WITH
NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE FOUND UNTIL 15Z OVER THIS SAME AREA. NOT EXPECTING ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EVEN THOUGH A NW WIND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL OCCUR. THE REASON...LOW LEVEL WAA IN THE 1000-900MB LEVEL WILL
OFFSET ANY POTENTIAL ACCUMULATION. WILL MAINTAIN THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY OVER SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS AND CARLTON COUNTIES WITH VSBYS
BELOW FIVE EIGHTHS OF A MILE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z.
THE UPPER LOW/TROF IN NW MN IS PROGGED TO MOVE TO SE MN BY 18Z
TODAY. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIDESPREAD PCPN...BUT DO HAVE SOME POPS
FROM 20Z TO 22Z OVER SOUTHERN SAWYER COUNTY WHERE ENOUGH FORCING
FROM THE PASSING UPPER TROF MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS. THIS IS SEEN
IN THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL...AS WELL AS THE 00Z RUN OF
THE ARW AND NMM. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING COVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND SLIP OFF TO
THE EAST ON SATURDAY. WEAK WAA IS ON TAP FOR TONIGHT AND A BIT
STRONGER ON SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF CROSSES INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NO PCPN IS EXPECTED AS COLUMN RH IS LESS
THAN 50 PERCENT. WARMEST DAY IN A LONG TIME SATURDAY WITH MAX TEMPS
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S. COOLEST OVER THE ARROWHEAD
WHERE A COOL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE
LOWER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL COMBINE WITH A
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...MODEST
WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE MID LEVELS AND INTERACT WITH AN
INCOMING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHLAND. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
OVER NRN MN WITH ML CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 250 J/KG AND
ROUGHLY 30-40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. CONDITIONS COULD BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH SMALL HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS. MUCH NEEDED RAIN WILL ALSO COME FROM THIS SYSTEM. COULD SEE
WIDESPREAD QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN WITH THIS FRONT.
BEHIND THE FRONT...COLD AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NW OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE TRIGGERED OVER
THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO N-CENTRAL WI MON MORNING...BUT THE GENERAL
TREND SHOULD BE DRYING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A DOME OF WARM
AND DRY AIR BUILDS IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. ANOTHER WEAK
FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH A
RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR POSSIBLE THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
REALLY BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION LATER THIS
WEEK...SO FOLLOWED THIS TREND AND HEDGED POPS BACK A BIT FROM
BLENDED GUIDANCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
THE PATTERN HAS ALSO SHIFTED SUCH THAT THE PERSISTENT NE WINDS OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR DO NOT APPEAR TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE WEEK...WHICH WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TWIN PORTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT ALL THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTHLAND OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST. COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL MEAN THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. COULD ALSO BE SOME AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING SPRINKLES IN SPOTS. THE MOST CLOUD COVER WILL BE
EAST OF A KINL TO KBRD LINE. THE CLOUDS WILL BE LARGELY VFR BUT
SOME LOCAL MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A TIME. SKIES WILL CLEAR
OVERNIGHT...AND WINDS WILL DECREASE. WINDS WILL AGAIN START TO
PICK UP ON SATURDAY...WITH SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 50 31 60 44 / 0 0 0 20
INL 50 29 64 45 / 0 0 0 30
BRD 53 31 65 46 / 70 0 0 20
HYR 50 29 60 44 / 10 0 0 10
ASX 50 30 61 43 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...DAP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
654 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS LINGERING INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW AND BUILD INTO THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SECOND COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWING INTO THE MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...BETWEEN THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF THE SEA
BREEZE AN THE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT FORCED
CONVECTION THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS DIMINISHED. SAT IMAGERY
SHOWS MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT IN CU FIELDS DESPITE THE WARM AND HUMID
AFTERNOON. SIMILARLY THE ISOLATED ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST MAY HAVE
TROUBLE SURVIVING INTO OUR REGION DUE TO THE DRYNESS INDICATED IN THE
LCL-LFC LAYER. BUT JUST IN CASE HAVE BEEN CARRYING LOW POPS OVER
WESTERN ZONES BEGINNING AROUND 21Z. THIS IS A BIT QUICKER THAN THE
WRF BUT SLOWER THAN THE NOW OUTLYING GFS. THE MOST UNCERTAINTY HAS
COME THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE HIGH RES MODELS SUCH AS THE RUC AND THE
HRRR. SUCH GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN ANY AND ALL PREFRONTAL
PRECIPITATION DETERIORATE COMPLETE. TAKE THE HRRR FOR EXAMPLE...NOT A
DROP OF RAIN UNTIL SOME FAIRLY BENIGN LOOKING SHALLOW CONVECTION
ENTERS OUR AREA...AT 04Z! CURRENT FORECAST IS NOT SO BOLDLY DRY BUT
JUST RECENTLY NOTICED THAT THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH DEPICTED ON THE WRF
IS MUCH TOO STRONG COMPARED TO REALITY. SO THE TREND STARTED THIS
MORNING OF SLOWING DOWN TIMING MAY VERY WELL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
WITH JUST A SLOW RAMPING UP OF POPS FROM NW TO SE...BUT THE BULK OF
THE RAIN COMING LATE OVERNIGHT AND GENERALLY SHALLOW CONVECTION WITH
JUST ISOLATED THUNDER. THE REMAINING SEVERE THREAT IS OVER FAR
INLAND ZONES WITH ANY PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP OR
ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST...REPRESENTING A LOW END DAMAGING WIND
THREAT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST OFF
THE COAST BY 12 UTC WITH LINGERING EARLY MORNING SHOWERS.
AFTER THE PRECIPITATION CLEARS SATURDAY MORNING...DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN THE 74 TO
78 DEGREE RANGE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDTY VALUES DROPPING INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30% RANGE LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...WETTISH EXTENDED PERIOD AS UPSTREAM UPPER
TROUGHING ALLOWS GULF MOISTURE TAPS TO EJECT NE INTO THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FIRST IMPULSE GUIDED FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA STREAMS NE IN AN ELEVATED PRECIPITABLE WATER
PLUME AS HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS FROM THE NORTH TO INSTIGATE AN
EARLY SPRING OVER-RUNNING WEDGE PATTERN INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH EDGES EAST OVER THE VALLEY
OVERSPREADING GULF VAPOR CONTENT THURSDAY AS THE WEDGE ERODES IN
WET AND ISENTROPIC OMEGA. EXTENDED PERIOD CULMINATES INTO
A RAINY FRIDAY AS THE AMPED UPPER TROUGH FORCES A COLD FRONT
ACROSS FORECAST AREA DAY 7. WPC QPF DEPICTIONS FOR DAYS 4-5 AND
6-7 YIELD BASIN AVERAGE COLLECTIVE RAIN TOTALS OF 1-2.5 INCHES.
PLENTIFUL CLOUDS IN BALMY SW FLOW ALOFT AND WEDGE PATTERN THIS
PERIOD RESULTS IN MAXIMUMS PRIMARILY 70S...MINIMUMS UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...SO FAR...IT LOOKS LIKE A BIG DISSIPOINTMENT WITH REGUARD
TO CONVECTION. THE CONVECTION IS FAIRLY STRONG IN COLUMBIA`S
CWA...BUT THAT WAS WHERE THE MAX CAPE RESIDED. WE STILL HAVE SOME
WARM AIR ALOFT THAT IS DAMPERING THINGS. NEVERTHELESS WILL KEEP SOME
CONVECTION IN THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT WILL SLOW THINGS DOWN AND WILL
TAKE OUT THE HEAVY GUSTS. LBT AND FLO STAND THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDER...BUT THINK IT WILL BE FLEETING.
SATURDAY MORNING...SOME IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT DROPS
IN...WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST...POST FRONTAL BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD IN
A PRE-FRONTAL FLOW REGIME. THE APPROACH OF THE BOUNDARY LATE
TONIGHT WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT LEADING TO A SMALL
INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS. WHILE THIS MAY INTRODUCE 5 FT SEAS
ALONG THE OUTER PORTIONS OF SOME OF THE FORECAST ZONES THE LARGE
COAST- PARALLEL COMPONENT SHOULD SPONSOR ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT IN
NEARSHORE VS OFFSHORE WAVES TO PRECLUDE A SCEC.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BE SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THEN NORTHEAST TO EAST
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS
EARLY IN THE MORNING BEFORE DROPPING DOWN TO 15 KNOTS BY THE
EVENING. ON SUNDAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND WINDS ARE
EXPECT TO PEAK AGAIN AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
DROPPING BACK TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE
RUNNING AROUND 3 TO 5 FEET SATURDAY MORNING WITH A FALL TO 2 TO 4
FEET SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW. WITH THE NORTHEAST
FLOW INCREASING THE SEAS WILL INCREASE BACK TO 3 TO 4 FEET ON
SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...A BUMPY MARINE ENVIRONMENT MON-WED AS A
MODERATE ONSHORE WIND FLOW KEEPS SEAS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...AND
OVERALL 3-5 FEET. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY PLAGUE THE WATERS
WITH RAIN AND OCCASIONAL REDUCED VISIBILITY AND ISOLATED TSTMS
AS GULF MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES SPREAD NE OVER THE 0-20 NM
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
FOR 6 FOOT SEAS OFFSHORE...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND
INTERACTS WITH AN OFFSHORE COASTAL TROUGH.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...HAWKINS
LONG TERM...MJC
AVIATION...43
MARINE...SRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
328 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS LINGERING INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW AND BUILD INTO THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SECOND COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWING INTO THE MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...BETWEEN THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF THE SEA
BREEZE AN THE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT FORCED
CONVECTION THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS DIMINISHED. SAT IMAGERY
SHOWS MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT IN CU FIELDS DESPITE THE WARM AND HUMID
AFTERNOON. SIMILARLY THE ISOLATED ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST MAY HAVE
TROUBLE SURVIVING INTO OUR REGION DUE TO THE DRYNESS INDICATED IN THE
LCL-LFC LAYER. BUT JUST IN CASE HAVE BEEN CARRYING LOW POPS OVER
WESTERN ZONES BEGINNING AROUND 21Z. THIS IS A BIT QUICKER THAN THE
WRF BUT SLOWER THAN THE NOW OUTLYING GFS. THE MOST UNCERTAINTY HAS
COME THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE HIGH RES MODELS SUCH AS THE RUC AND THE
HRRR. SUCH GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN ANY AND ALL PREFRONTAL
PRECIPITATION DETERIORATE COMPLETE. TAKE THE HRRR FOR EXAMPLE...NOT A
DROP OF RAIN UNTIL SOME FAIRLY BENIGN LOOKING SHALLOW CONVECTION
ENTERS OUR AREA...AT 04Z! CURRENT FORECAST IS NOT SO BOLDLY DRY BUT
JUST RECENTLY NOTICED THAT THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH DEPICTED ON THE WRF
IS MUCH TOO STRONG COMPARED TO REALITY. SO THE TREND STARTED THIS
MORNING OF SLOWING DOWN TIMING MAY VERY WELL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
WITH JUST A SLOW RAMPING UP OF POPS FROM NW TO SE...BUT THE BULK OF
THE RAIN COMING LATE OVERNIGHT AND GENERALLY SHALLOW CONVECTION WITH
JUST ISOLATED THUNDER. THE REMAINING SEVERE THREAT IS OVER FAR
INLAND ZONES WITH ANY PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP OR
ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST...REPRESENTING A LOW END DAMAGING WIND
THREAT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST OFF
THE COAST BY 12 UTC WITH LINGERING EARLY MORNING SHOWERS.
AFTER THE PRECIPITATION CLEARS SATURDAY MORNING...DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN THE 74 TO
78 DEGREE RANGE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDTY VALUES DROPPING INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30% RANGE LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...WETTISH EXTENDED PERIOD AS UPSTREAM UPPER
TROUGHING ALLOWS GULF MOISTURE TAPS TO EJECT NE INTO THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FIRST IMPULSE GUIDED FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA STREAMS NE IN AN ELEVATED PRECIPITABLE WATER
PLUME AS HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS FROM THE NORTH TO INSTIGATE AN
EARLY SPRING OVER-RUNNING WEDGE PATTERN INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH EDGES EAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
OVERSPREADING GULF VAPOR CONTENT THURSDAY AS THE WEDGE ERODES IN
WET UPGLIDE AND ISENTROPIC OMEGA. EXTENDED PERIOD CULMINATES INTO
A RAINY FRIDAY AS THE AMPED UPPER TROUGH FORCES A COLD FRONT
ACROSS FORECAST AREA DAY 7. WPC QPF DEPICTIONS FOR DAYS 4-5 AND
6-7 YIELD BASIN AVERAGE COLLECTIVE RAIN TOTALS OF 1-2.5 INCHES.
PLENTIFUL CLOUDS IN BALMY SW FLOW ALOFT AND WEDGE PATTERN THIS
PERIOD RESULTS IN MAXIMUMS PRIMARILY 70S...MINIMUMS UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...POTENTIALLY CREATING MVFR/IFR. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR SATURDAY MORNING.
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH LOW TO HIGH CLOUDS
AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 15 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS POSSIBLE
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INTO TONIGHT...CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST TO EAST...REACHING THE COAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME STORMS...ESPECIALLY
INLAND...COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
POSSIBLE. LATE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
PATCHY AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CIGS POSSIBLE AND WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
AOB 12 KTS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
CLOUD COVER BECOMING SCATTERED AND NORTHERLY WINDS AOB 10 KTS BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD IN
A PRE-FRONTAL FLOW REGIME. THE APPROACH OF THE BOUNDARY LATE
TONIGHT WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT LEADING TO A SMALL
INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS. WHILE THIS MAY INTRODUCE 5 FT SEAS
ALONG THE OUTER PORTIONS OF SOME OF THE FORECAST ZONES THE LARGE
COAST- PARALLEL COMPONENT SHOULD SPONSOR ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT IN
NEARSHORE VS OFFSHORE WAVES TO PRECLUDE A SCEC.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BE SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THEN NORTHEAST TO EAST
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS
EARLY IN THE MORNING BEFORE DROPPING DOWN TO 15 KNOTS BY THE
EVENING. ON SUNDAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND WINDS ARE
EXPECT TO PEAK AGAIN AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
DROPPING BACK TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE
RUNNING AROUND 3 TO 5 FEET SATURDAY MORNING WITH A FALL TO 2 TO 4
FEET SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW. WITH THE NORTHEAST
FLOW INCREASING THE SEAS WILL INCREASE BACK TO 3 TO 4 FEET ON
SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...A BUMPY MARINE ENVIRONMENT MON-WED AS A
MODERATE ONSHORE WIND FLOW KEEPS SEAS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...AND
OVERALL 3-5 FEET. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY PLAGUE THE WATERS
WITH RAIN AND OCCASIONAL REDUCED VISIBILITY AND ISOLATED TSTMS
AS GULF MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES SPREAD NE OVER THE 0-20 NM
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
FOR 6 FOOT SEAS OFFSHORE...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND
INTERACTS WITH AN OFFSHORE COASTAL TROUGH.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...HAWKINS
LONG TERM...MJC
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...SRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
149 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1235 PM FRIDAY...DECREASED POPS EVEN MORE THRU TODAY AS
LOOKS LIKE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL NOT ARRIVE TIL THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH GUSTY SW WINDS AND WARM
TEMPS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
PREV DISC...WARM FRONT NOW WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WITH ALL
AREAS TEMPS IN THE 60S. PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED AND THE 3KM HRRR
AND RAP MODELS SHOW MOST OF THE AREA REMAINING DRY INTO EARLY
EVENING. HAVE DROPPED POPS THROUGH ABOUT 18Z BASED ON THESE
TRENDS. AS DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVES
AWAY...EXPECT MORE AND MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL INTO THE 80S INLAND AND WELL INTO THE
70S ALONG THE COAST. FORECAST DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S
WILL AID DESTABILIZATION BY AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST LI VALUES IN
THE -4 TO -6 RANGE WITH CAPE VALUES OF 1500 J/KG FORECAST BY LATER
IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A LINE OF
CONVECTION ARRIVES IN OUR CWA AROUND 00Z JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND MOVES OFFSHORE SOMETIME NEAR 06Z. SPC HAS COUNTIES JUST INLAND
FROM THE COAST IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE TODAY WITH MARGINAL RISK
ALONG THE COAST...MAINLY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY
ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES. THINK STRONG DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LARGE HAIL AS
WELL. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE
LIKELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM FRIDAY...WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS ALONG THE COAST AFTER
06Z WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING NEAR OR OFFSHORE BY 12Z. THE THREAT
OF THUNDER WILL LARGE END AFTER 06Z AS MOST OF THE INSTABILITY
MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION DOES NOT
START IN EARNEST UNTIL SATURDAY...SO THINK MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND 60 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS. A TOTAL OF ONE-
HALF TO POSSIBLY THREE-QUARTER INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS SAT-MON PERIOD
WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRY FCST. SIGNIFICANT
ADJUSTMENTS TO TUE-THU PERIOD WITH MODELS INDICATING FRONTAL
PASSAGE TUE-TUE NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRES WED-THU.
SATURDAY...00Z GFS HAS FRONT WELL OFF COAST AT 12Z WHILE NAM AND
ECMWF HAVE IT JUST ALONG COAST WITH SRN STREAM SHRT WV STILL
MOVING THROUGH TO INDICATE LINGERING THREAT OF SHOWERS UNTIL MID
MORNING. CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST WHICH LEANED TO THIS SLIGHTLY
SLOWER SOLUTION. CLEARING EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTN AND MOS GDNC
SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS 70-75 INLAND WITH 60S OBX.
SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
SFC RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS TO N...THEN OFFSHORE ON MON. COOLEST
TEMPS LIKELY SAT NIGHT...MAINLY MID TO UPR 40S. TEMPS THEN
MODERATING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MON.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NRN
STREAM SHRT WV MOVING ACROSS NE US WITH ATTENDANT SFC FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH ERN NC LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. GIVEN INCREASED MODEL
CONFIDENCE...ADDED SLGT CHC POPS OVER WRN SECTIONS LATE MON NIGHT
AND INCREASED POPS TO CHC ALL ZONES TUE WITH LINGERING SLGT CHC
ERN SECTIONS TUE EVENING. MODELS INDICATE RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT
LATE TUE NIGHT INTO THU...AND DROPPED POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH MSTR
AND LIFT REMAINING S AND W OF AREA UNTIL THU NIGHT. TEMPS A FEW
DEGS COOLER BEHIND FRONT WED...MODERATING AGAIN THU.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTY SW WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS WITH
A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 3500 FT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
ARRIVING SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BRIEFLY REDUCED CONDITIONS TO MVFR. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO WANE AFTER 06Z WITH LINGERING SHOWERS
AFTERWARDS AND FORECASTING SOUNDING IS INDICATING MVFR CEILINGS TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. CEILING CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR...FROM
WEST TO EAST AROUND 12Z TO 15Z SATURDAY. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
OFF THE COAST BY 15Z.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...LINGERING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PSBL EARLY SAT
MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR ALL AREAS BY AFTN. VFR EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL SAT NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH HIGH PRES MOVING ACROSS TO N
AND THEN OFFSHORE. SUB-VFR PSBL AGAIN LATE MON NIGHT AS MSTR
RETURNS WITH SRLY FLOW...BUT MORE LIKELY TUE WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1235 PM FRIDAY...ADDED RIVERS AND ALBEMARLE SOUND TO SCA
THRU EARLY EVENING. WINDS ARE LIKELY MIXING OVER THE RIVERS AND AT
LEAST PORTIONS OF THE SOUND WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. ONCE MIXING
DIMINISHES THIS EVENING WIND GUSTS SHLD COME DOWN SIGNIF.
PREV DISC...WITH WARM FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...WINDS ARE
GENERALLY S/SW AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
PLACES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND. FEEL THE SOUTHERN
WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND MAY MAINLY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN GUSTS...BUT SEAS SHOULD REACH 6 FEET OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN WATERS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...INCREASING TO AS
HIGH AS 5 TO 7 FEET OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS LATE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO SAT-MON
PERIOD...BUT DID ADJUST MON NIGHT-TUE PERIOD WITH LATEST MODEL
CONSENSUS. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SAT MORNING FOLLOWED BY
BRIEF NRLY WIND SURGE WHICH WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KT BY
EVENING. SECONDARY SURGE OF NE WINDS 15-20 KT LATE SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...THEN WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO E-SE AROUND 10 KT SUN
NIGHT INTO MON. 00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT S-SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MON NIGHT INTO TUE
AND ADJUSTED FCST ACCORDINGLY.
LOCAL NWPS NOT AVBL...AND USED BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND WW3 FOR
SEAS. HEIGHTS SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT LATE SAT...THEN BUILDING AGAIN
TO 3-4 FT SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...DROPPING TO AROUND 2 FT SUN NIGHT
INTO MON. SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT TUE WITH STRONGER S-SW WINDS.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ131-
136-137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF/CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/BM
MARINE...RF/CTC/JBM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1242 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1235 PM FRIDAY...DECREASED POPS EVEN MORE THRU TODAY AS
LOOKS LIKE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL NOT ARRIVE TIL THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH GUSTY SW WINDS AND WARM
TEMPS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
PREV DISC...WARM FRONT NOW WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WITH ALL
AREAS TEMPS IN THE 60S. PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED AND THE 3KM HRRR
AND RAP MODELS SHOW MOST OF THE AREA REMAINING DRY INTO EARLY
EVENING. HAVE DROPPED POPS THROUGH ABOUT 18Z BASED ON THESE
TRENDS. AS DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVES
AWAY...EXPECT MORE AND MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL INTO THE 80S INLAND AND WELL INTO THE
70S ALONG THE COAST. FORECAST DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S
WILL AID DESTABILIZATION BY AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST LI VALUES IN
THE -4 TO -6 RANGE WITH CAPE VALUES OF 1500 J/KG FORECAST BY LATER
IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A LINE OF
CONVECTION ARRIVES IN OUR CWA AROUND 00Z JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND MOVES OFFSHORE SOMETIME NEAR 06Z. SPC HAS COUNTIES JUST INLAND
FROM THE COAST IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE TODAY WITH MARGINAL RISK
ALONG THE COAST...MAINLY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY
ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES. THINK STRONG DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LARGE HAIL AS
WELL. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE
LIKELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM FRIDAY...WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS ALONG THE COAST AFTER
06Z WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING NEAR OR OFFSHORE BY 12Z. THE THREAT
OF THUNDER WILL LARGE END AFTER 06Z AS MOST OF THE INSTABILITY
MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION DOES NOT
START IN EARNEST UNTIL SATURDAY...SO THINK MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND 60 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS. A TOTAL OF ONE-
HALF TO POSSIBLY THREE-QUARTER INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS SAT-MON PERIOD
WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRY FCST. SIGNIFICANT
ADJUSTMENTS TO TUE-THU PERIOD WITH MODELS INDICATING FRONTAL
PASSAGE TUE-TUE NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRES WED-THU.
SATURDAY...00Z GFS HAS FRONT WELL OFF COAST AT 12Z WHILE NAM AND
ECMWF HAVE IT JUST ALONG COAST WITH SRN STREAM SHRT WV STILL
MOVING THROUGH TO INDICATE LINGERING THREAT OF SHOWERS UNTIL MID
MORNING. CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST WHICH LEANED TO THIS SLIGHTLY
SLOWER SOLUTION. CLEARING EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTN AND MOS GDNC
SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS 70-75 INLAND WITH 60S OBX.
SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
SFC RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS TO N...THEN OFFSHORE ON MON. COOLEST
TEMPS LIKELY SAT NIGHT...MAINLY MID TO UPR 40S. TEMPS THEN
MODERATING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MON.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NRN
STREAM SHRT WV MOVING ACROS NE US WITH ATTENDANT SFC FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH ERN NC LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. GIVEN INCREASED MODEL
CONFIDENCE...ADDED SLGT CHC POPS OVER WRN SECTIONS LATE MON NIGHT
AND INCREASED POPS TO CHC ALL ZONES TUE WITH LINGERING SLGT CHC
ERN SECTIONS TUE EVENING. MODELS INDICATE RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT
LATE TUE NIGHT INTO THU...AND DROPPED POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH MSTR
AND LIFT REMAINING S AND W OF AREA UNTIL THU NIGHT. TEMPS A FEW
DEGS COOLER BEHIND FRONT WED...MODERATING AGAIN THU.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM FRIDAY...MOST OF THE LOWER CEILINGS/VSBYS HAVE FAILED
TO MATERIALIZE THIS MORNING...EXCEPT FOR A FEW PATCHES OF FOG
AROUND KOAJ. WITH INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING...INCREASING
MIXING...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-AFTERNOON. LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND 00Z AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL WANE AFTER 06Z
WITH LINGERING SHOWERS...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. THESE EVENING
SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY DROP CONDITIONS TO MVFR IN BOTH CEILING AND
VSBY AT TIMES...MAINLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...LINGERING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PSBL EARLY SAT
MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR ALL AREAS BY AFTN. VFR EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL SAT NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH HIGH PRES MOVING ACROSS TO N
AND THEN OFFSHORE. SUB-VFR PSBL AGAIN LATE MON NIGHT AS MSTR
RETURNS WITH SRLY FLOW...BUT MORE LIKELY TUE WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1235 PM FRIDAY...ADDED RIVERS AND ALBEMARLE SOUND TO SCA
THRU EARLY EVENING. WINDS ARE LIKELY MIXING OVER THE RIVERS AND AT
LEAST PORTIONS OF THE SOUND WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. ONCE MIXING
DIMINISHES THIS EVENING WIND GUSTS SHLD COME DOWN SIGNIF.
PREV DISC...WITH WARM FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...WINDS ARE
GENERALLY S/SW AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
PLACES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND. FEEL THE SOUTHERN
WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND MAY MAINLY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN GUSTS...BUT SEAS SHOULD REACH 6 FEET OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN WATERS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...INCREASING TO AS
HIGH AS 5 TO 7 FEET OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS LATE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO SAT-MON
PERIOD...BUT DID ADJUST MON NIGHT-TUE PERIOD WITH LATEST MODEL
CONSENSUS. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SAT MORNING FOLLOWED BY
BRIEF NRLY WIND SURGE WHICH WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KT BY
EVENING. SECONDARY SURGE OF NE WINDS 15-20 KT LATE SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...THEN WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO E-SE AROUND 10 KT SUN
NIGHT INTO MON. 00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT S-SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MON NIGHT INTO TUE
AND ADJUSTED FCST ACCORDINGLY.
LOCAL NWPS NOT AVBL...AND USED BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND WW3 FOR
SEAS. HEIGHTS SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT LATE SAT...THEN BUILDING AGAIN
TO 3-4 FT SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...DROPPING TO AROUND 2 FT SUN NIGHT
INTO MON. SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT TUE WITH STRONGER S-SW WINDS.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ131-
136-137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF/CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...CTC/JBM
MARINE...RF/CTC/JBM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
552 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2015
.DISCUSSION...
See 00z aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
Areas of rain and thunderstorms are expected to expand northward
after 00z to include southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin.
This convection is expected to shift eastward tomorrow, but MAF and
FST will still have a slight chance of thunderstorms in the
afternoon. There is a chance of low ceilings coming into the area
tonight around 12z with the best chance being in HOB. Winds will
generally be out of the south to southeast throughout the period and
should decrease in strength overnight then increase again Saturday
afternoon.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 150 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SE-E surface winds have increased across the Trans Pecos/PB this PM
as surface high moves e and surface pressure falls. Upslope flow per
mesoscale models (TTU WRF, NAM12, HRRR) looks well organized, enuf
so that dwpnts will increase to near 50 on on east slopes of Davis
Mtns and M50s thru Glass Mtns. Instability looks to be modulated by
mid level LRs of 7.5 C/KM and 0-1km CAPES increase by 00Z to near
1500 J/KG in said area. Looks to be a good set-up for tstms to
initiate in the mtns where SB CINH not much of an issue and then
move e-ne. Kinematics are also favorable for severe wx (large hail)
with 0-6 km bulk shear 40-50kts. In this set-up, the surface thermal
ridge and axis of highest dwpnts are near co-located. HRRR develops
QPF at 22Z NW of FST and depicts what may well be a right-moving
supercell across Pecos Co later this PM. Overnight there is an
indication that the arrival energy assocd shrtwv trof in the sw flow
aloft and 40kt LLJ may renew the development of convection,
especially s of I-20. Convective potential will wane Sat, but still
exists. Isold-Sct tstms INVOF Davis/Glass Mtns and across the ern PB,
respectively. Sunday more robust PoPs are warranted with backed mid
level flow ahead of an upper low sw of El Paso City, helping to hold
low level mstr in place. 5h jet of 50-60kts will help provide lift.
0-6km bulk shear increases late, but LR/s are not very good, so for
now severe potential looks to be minimized. There`s enuf of a backed
flow/mstr/potential for rain cooled air to keeps temps INVOF of
normal ranges thru Sunday. Said low will lift newd to w-nw of MAF
and this will increase the PoPs Monday n of the area, moreso in the
LBB area. However cool mid levels near the center of low will be
enough to keep sct PoPs, especially along n of I-20. An assocd cold
front will pass thru the area either Mon PM or Mon night, so cooler
and drier Tue. Another front will be possible Wed night/Thursday
morning, so cool/dry for Thur PM. We`ll watch for the potential for
low level mstr return Friday which will augment PoPs.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
99
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
150 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SE-E surface winds have increased across the Trans Pecos/PB this PM as
surface high moves e and surface pressure falls. Upslope flow per
mesoscale models (TTU WRF, NAM12, HRRR) looks well organized, enuf
so that dwpnts will increase to near 50 on on east slopes of Davis
Mtns and M50s thru Glass Mtns. Instability looks to be modulated by
mid level LRs of 7.5 C/KM and 0-1km CAPES increase by 00Z to near
1500 J/KG in said area. Looks to be a good set-up for tstms to initiate
in the mtns where SB CINH not much of an issue and then move e-ne.
Kinematics are also favorable for severe wx (large hail) with 0-6
km bulk shear 40-50kts. In this set-up, the surface thermal ridge
and axis of highest dwpnts are near co-located. HRRR develops QPF
at 22Z NW of FST and depicts what may well be a right-moving
supercell across Pecos Co later this PM. Overnight there is an
indication that the arrival energy assocd shrtwv trof in the sw flow
aloft and 40kt LLJ may renew the development of convection, especially
s of I-20. Convective potential will wane Sat, but still exists.
Isold-Sct tstms INVOF Davis/Glass Mtns and across the ern PB,
respectively. Sunday more robust PoPs are warranted with backed
mid level flow ahead of an upper low sw of El Paso City, helping to
hold low level mstr in place. 5h jet of 50-60kts will help provide
lift. 0-6km bulk shear increases late, but LR/s are not very good,
so for now severe potential looks to be minimized. There`s enuf of a
backed flow/mstr/potential for rain cooled air to keeps temps INVOF
of normal ranges thru Sunday. Said low will lift newd to w-nw of MAF
and this will increase the PoPs Monday n of the area, moreso in the
LBB area. However cool mid levels near the center of low will be
enough to keep sct PoPs, especially along n of I-20. An assocd
cold front will pass thru the area either Mon PM or Mon night, so
cooler and drier Tue. Another front will be possible Wed night/Thursday
morning, so cool/dry for Thur PM. We`ll watch for the potential for
low level mstr return Friday which will augment PoPs.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 59 79 59 77 / 30 20 10 40
BIG SPRING TX 61 78 62 81 / 20 40 10 50
CARLSBAD NM 53 85 53 77 / 30 10 10 30
DRYDEN TX 64 81 65 83 / 60 40 20 50
FORT STOCKTON TX 62 82 61 80 / 60 20 20 40
GUADALUPE PASS TX 54 77 48 68 / 40 10 10 30
HOBBS NM 55 79 58 75 / 30 10 10 40
MARFA TX 49 77 51 72 / 60 10 20 40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 61 79 61 79 / 40 30 20 50
ODESSA TX 61 79 61 78 / 40 20 10 50
WINK TX 61 84 58 80 / 50 20 10 40
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
132 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
.UPDATE...
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD MOVING EAST OF THE REGION. THERE IS SOME CLEARING TO OUR
WEST AND IF ENOUGH HEATING CAN BE REALIZED...WE COULD SEE SOME
LATE AFTERNOON STORMS DEVELOP WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE...THEN MOVE
INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMEST TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE
PLAINS...WHILE AREAS EAST OF I-35 WILL REMAIN COOLEST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2015/
AVIATION.../18Z TAF CYCLE/
SHRA SHIELD IS SHIFTING EAST OF ALL THE TAF SITES THIS HOUR WITH
SOME -SHRA LINGERING AT KAUS THROUGH THE NEXT HALF HOUR. ALL SITES
ARE VFR AND SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. LOWER MVFR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 03Z
FOR CENTRAL TAF SITES AND KDRT NEAR 06-09Z. CIGS SHOULD LOWER
FURTHER THROUGH DAWN TO IFR TO POSSIBLY LIFR. A SLOW CLIMB
UPWARDS THROUGH THE MORNING AFTERNOON WITH OCCUR TOWARDS MVFR.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NNE NEAR 10 KT AND DROP TO LESS THAN 5KT
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE BECOMING MORE EASTERLY.
A STRONGER WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING A ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA TO MOST
SITES. HAVE PLACED VCSH AND VCTS ACCORDINGLY WHEN BEST WINDOW FOR
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO OCCUR. DIRECT TSRA AND SHRA INCLUSION WILL
LIKELY COME ON SUBSEQUENT UPDATES. LOCALIZED VISIBILITY DROPS COULD
OCCUR IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS IF A STRONGER STORM DIRECTLY IMPACTS A
TERMINAL. /ALLEN/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 808 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015/
UPDATE...
BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH SOME CONSIDERATION OF
THE HRRR MODEL...WE HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE
HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR. WE HAVE ALSO DECREASED HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY GIVEN ONGOING RADAR TRENDS...NORTHERLY WINDS
AND CLOUD COVER.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015/
UPDATE...
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES BETWEEN SAN ANTONIO...
KERRVILLE AND UVALDE. HAVE BOOSTED POPS THROUGH MID MORNING FOR
THIS AREA. ALSO...STRONGER WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED ALONG I-35
FROM NORTHEAST OF SAN ANTONIO TO AUSTIN. HAVE BOOSTED WINDS FOR
THIS MORNING IN THAT AREA. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
A COLD FRONT ALONG A LANGTRY TO SAN ANTONIO TO GIDDINGS LINE
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH WITH RADARS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND IT FROM SAN ANTONIO INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
HILL COUNTRY. SOME SHOWERS ALSO NOTED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
FRONT IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER WITH SOME DRYING OVER NORTHERN
AREAS AS SEEN BY DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND EVEN SOME UPPER 40S OVER
THE FAR NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY. A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS DEVELOPED
EARLIER. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING CAP WITH INCREASING CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION TAKING HOLD WEAKENED THEM. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER
SOUTHERN TEXAS LATER TODAY. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
TODAY WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND UPWARD FORCING WILL BE
MAXIMIZED. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG STORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN
RIO GRANDE PLAINS DUE TO CAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG. SOME DRIER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO OUR AREA SHIFTING BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC
LIFT DEVELOPS SATURDAY AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES AND A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS TEXAS INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL AREAS. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE TODAY AND SATURDAY.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED
ABOUT 700 MILES WEST OF POINT CONCEPTION ON THE CALIFORNIA COAST
MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. UPWARD
FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE. THERE REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY THAT AN MCS WILL FORM OFF THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO OF
MEXICO AND THEN MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS DUE TO LOW
TO MID LEVEL WIND SHEAR. ALSO...PWS AROUND 1.5 INCHES INDICATE A
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER
TROUGH TRANSITIONS INTO A WEAK SHEAR AXIS AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN RAIN LATE
MONDAY...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RESUME AND CONTINUE
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS TEXAS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS. A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE
ACROSS LATE THURSDAY WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ENDING IN ITS WAKE BY NEXT FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 63 76 67 79 67 / 20 50 50 60 70
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 61 75 66 78 66 / 20 50 50 60 70
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 63 78 66 80 67 / 20 50 50 60 70
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 59 74 65 78 64 / 20 50 40 50 70
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 67 79 68 81 64 / 40 50 40 50 60
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 59 75 65 78 66 / 20 50 50 60 70
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 64 78 67 80 66 / 20 50 50 60 70
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 63 77 66 79 67 / 20 50 50 60 70
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 65 77 68 79 69 / 20 60 50 70 70
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 64 78 68 80 67 / 20 50 50 60 70
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 65 78 68 80 67 / 20 60 50 60 70
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1253 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2015
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF CYCLE/
SHRA SHIELD IS SHIFTING EAST OF ALL THE TAF SITES THIS HOUR WITH
SOME -SHRA LINGERING AT KAUS THROUGH THE NEXT HALF HOUR. ALL SITES
ARE VFR AND SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. LOWER MVFR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 03Z
FOR CENTRAL TAF SITES AND KDRT NEAR 06-09Z. CIGS SHOULD LOWER
FURTHER THROUGH DAWN TO IFR TO POSSIBLY LIFR. A SLOW CLIMB
UPWARDS THROUGH THE MORNING AFTERNOON WITH OCCUR TOWARDS MVFR.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NNE NEAR 10 KT AND DROP TO LESS THAN 5KT
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE BECOMING MORE EASTERLY.
A STRONGER WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING A ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA TO MOST
SITES. HAVE PLACED VCSH AND VCTS ACCORDINGLY WHEN BEST WINDOW FOR
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO OCCUR. DIRECT TSRA AND SHRA INCLUSION WILL
LIKELY COME ON SUBSEQUENT UPDATES. LOCALIZED VISIBILITY DROPS COULD
OCCUR IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS IF A STRONGER STORM DIRECTLY IMPACTS A
TERMINAL. /ALLEN/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 808 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015/
UPDATE...
BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH SOME CONSIDERATION OF
THE HRRR MODEL...WE HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE
HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR. WE HAVE ALSO DECREASED HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY GIVEN ONGOING RADAR TRENDS...NORTHERLY WINDS
AND CLOUD COVER.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015/
UPDATE...
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES BETWEEN SAN ANTONIO...
KERRVILLE AND UVALDE. HAVE BOOSTED POPS THROUGH MID MORNING FOR
THIS AREA. ALSO...STRONGER WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED ALONG I-35
FROM NORTHEAST OF SAN ANTONIO TO AUSTIN. HAVE BOOSTED WINDS FOR
THIS MORNING IN THAT AREA. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
A COLD FRONT ALONG A LANGTRY TO SAN ANTONIO TO GIDDINGS LINE
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH WITH RADARS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND IT FROM SAN ANTONIO INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
HILL COUNTRY. SOME SHOWERS ALSO NOTED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
FRONT IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER WITH SOME DRYING OVER NORTHERN
AREAS AS SEEN BY DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND EVEN SOME UPPER 40S OVER
THE FAR NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY. A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS DEVELOPED
EARLIER. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING CAP WITH INCREASING CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION TAKING HOLD WEAKENED THEM. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER
SOUTHERN TEXAS LATER TODAY. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
TODAY WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND UPWARD FORCING WILL BE
MAXIMIZED. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG STORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN
RIO GRANDE PLAINS DUE TO CAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG. SOME DRIER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO OUR AREA SHIFTING BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC
LIFT DEVELOPS SATURDAY AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES AND A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS TEXAS INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL AREAS. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE TODAY AND SATURDAY.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED
ABOUT 700 MILES WEST OF POINT CONCEPTION ON THE CALIFORNIA COAST
MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. UPWARD
FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE. THERE REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY THAT AN MCS WILL FORM OFF THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO OF
MEXICO AND THEN MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS DUE TO LOW
TO MID LEVEL WIND SHEAR. ALSO...PWS AROUND 1.5 INCHES INDICATE A
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER
TROUGH TRANSITIONS INTO A WEAK SHEAR AXIS AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN RAIN LATE
MONDAY...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RESUME AND CONTINUE
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS TEXAS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS. A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE
ACROSS LATE THURSDAY WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ENDING IN ITS WAKE BY NEXT FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 63 77 67 79 67 / 20 50 50 60 70
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 62 76 66 78 66 / 20 50 50 60 70
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 63 79 66 80 67 / 20 50 50 60 70
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 60 75 65 78 65 / 20 50 40 50 70
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 67 79 68 81 65 / 40 50 40 50 60
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 59 76 65 79 66 / 20 50 50 60 70
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 64 79 67 80 66 / 20 50 50 60 70
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 63 78 66 79 67 / 20 50 50 60 70
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 65 78 68 79 69 / 20 60 50 70 70
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 64 79 68 80 68 / 20 50 50 60 70
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 65 79 68 80 68 / 20 60 50 60 70
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
241 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR WEDGE OF STABLE AIR WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL THEN SWEEP
THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAY TODAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT FRIDAY...
MID-AFTERNOON UPDATE COMING OUT SOON TO REFLECT TWO MAIN ITEMS.
FIRST...HAVE RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ACROSS
PRIMARILY SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING SECTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE AT OR
WITHIN A DEGREE OF EARLIER FORECAST HIGHS...AND ADDITIONAL WARMING
IS STILL PROMISING. ALSO...HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THE WEST TO
LIKELY IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF WHERE THE LATEST ACTIVITY IS
FIRING BETWEEN BLUEFIELD AND LEWISBURG. THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...ESPECIALLY THE FOCUS FOR THE STRONGEST
STORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
AS OF 1250 PM EDT FRIDAY...
THE WEDGE HAS MET ITS MATCH AND IS NO MORE ACROSS THE EAST. THE
LAST REGION WAS THE LYNCHBURG AREA...AND WITHIN THE PAST HOUR HAS
LOST ITS FOG...ITS VERY LOW CLOUD COVER...JUMPED FIVE DEGREES...AND
THE WIND HAS INCREASED FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE REGION OF SHOWERS
THAT WAS MARCHING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING HAS DECREASED IN
COVERAGE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE NORTHERN SECTION RAN INTO THE
DISSIPATING WEDGE. THE SOUTHERN SECTION NEVER REALLY GOT ITS ACT
TOGETHER. THE MAIN FRONT IT STILL WEST OF THE AREA...WHERE
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A TRAILING LINE OF SHOWERS...AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS DENOTE A DISTINCT WIND SHIFT NORTHWEST. AS THIS
FEATURE DRAWS CLOSER...THE AREA OF SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND
NEIGHBORING PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA IS NOW OUR MAIN
FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK STILL PAINTS OF SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER FOR THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE AREA GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN PULLED EASTWARD TO COINCIDE WITH ROUGHLY
THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HAVE MADE CHANGES TO THE POPS AND
WEATHER TO REFLECT THE CURRENT DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT WITH AN EXPECTATION OF AN INCREASE IN THE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON...AND TO ALSO REFLECT THE GAP OF COVERAGE CURRENTLY
CENTRAL AND WEST. CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN IN THE WEST AND
CENTRAL WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT AT THIS TIME
ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED.
AS OF 955 AM EDT FRIDAY...
THE WEDGE IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA IS PUTTING UP A GOOD
FIGHT...BUT IT WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO STRONG MIXING FROM A
LOFT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WHILE THE WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG HAS ENDED...EXPECT PATCHY FOG OR EVEN PATCHY DENSE FOG
TO SURVIVE FOR A LITTLE BIT LONGER ACROSS MAINLY PARTS OF THE
JAMES RIVER BASIN. IN THE WEST...THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA OF
SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS
REACHED ROUGHLY A BEECH MOUNTAIN NORTH CAROLINA...TO BLAND
VIRGINIA...ANJEAN WEST VIRGINIA LINE. WHILE LITTLE TO NO THUNDER
IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS REGION OF SHOWERS...WE ARE NOT
GOING TO RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STORMS AS THE
PRECIPITATION PROGRESSES INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY MIDDAY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ACTIVITY
REACHES THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND PEAK
HEATING OF THE DAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER OFFER A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM LYNCHBURG TO
REIDSVILLE AND POINTS EAST THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY CONCERN WITH ANY STORM THAT REACHED
SEVERE LEVELS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA IS WITHIN A
MARGINAL POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WITH LESS CHANCE OF
SEVERE WEATHER.
AS OF 653 AM EDT FRIDAY...
MINOR UPDATE TO SLOW DOWN ARRIVAL OF LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR WEST
PER CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...JUST BY AN HOUR OR TWO. ALSO SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS AND LOWER DEW PTS EARLY THIS MORNING THAN WHAT WE
PREVIOUSLY HAD IN THE NORTHEAST...49 AT LYNCHBURG LAST HOUR...SO
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THERE. LINE OF CONVECTION STILL ABOUT 2 HRS
AWAY FROM THE WESTERN FRINGES OF CWA...AND BEGINNING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF WEAKENING IN TERMS OF REFLECTIVITY AS WELL AS TOTAL
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. STILL MAY EVENTUALLY NEED SOME SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS FOR GUSTY WINDS IF IT MAINTAINS SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS AS IT NEARS.
PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...
WEDGE FRONT REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING FROM
NORTH-CENTRAL NC THROUGH NEW RIVER VALLEY AND THEN UP THE
VIRGINIA-WEST VIRGINIA BORDER. LOWEST VISIBILITIES ARE ALONG
SOUTHERN BORDER IN NORTHERN NC AND SOUTHSIDE VA...AND IN
COORDINATION WITH WFO RAH ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THOSE
AREAS THROUGH 9 AM. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN LIFTING NORTH
QUICKLY AROUND SUNRISE OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER...AND SO MAY END UP
CANCELING SLIGHTLY EARLY.
OTHERWISE WE ARE WATCHING LINES OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...AND THERE ARE A FEW AREAS OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NOW
OUT AHEAD OF THESE...FROM UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND A FEW IN ERN
KENTUCKY. HRRR AND HIRES WRF ARW SEEM TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON THIS
AND TIME OF ARRIVAL IN WESTERN PART OF CWA...MAINLY BETWEEN 14Z
AND 15Z...SO DELAYED LIKELY POPS UNTIL THEN...WITH SOME LOW CHC
POPS STARTING AROUND 11Z IN CASE ANYTHING CONTINUES TO POP OUT
AHEAD. ALREADY GETTING SOME VERY LOW INSTABILITY VALUES IN FAR
WEST.
MOST HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE BREAKS THE LINE UP SOMEWHAT AS IT
MOVES INTO WESTERN SLOPES...ALTHOUGH SOME SCATTERED CELLS DO MAKE
IT THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...THEN THE LINE TRIES TO REFORM
EAST OF BLUE RIDGE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THINK HRRR MAY BE A
LITTLE TOO FAST WITH THE TIMING SHOWING EVERYTHING EAST OF CWA BY
22Z...BUT IT MAY NOT BE TOO FAR OFF. STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST
HOW STRONG THIS LINE WILL GET BEFORE GETTING EAST OF THE
AREA...WITH INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT LIMITED YET SHEAR QUITE STRONG.
SHOULD BE GOOD FORCING WITH FRONT HOWEVER...SO SLIGHT RISK FROM
MTV TO LYH AND POINTS EAST LOOKS REASONABLE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS
BEING PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN QLCS TYPE OF MODE EXPECTED. HAIL SHOULD
BE BE MINIMAL GIVEN LIMITED LOW TO MODEST INSTABILITY. KEPT POPS
LOW END OF CATEGORICAL ALL THE WAY THROUGH CWA...AS MOST LOCATIONS
REALLY SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A BRIEF SHOWER...BUT IT`S POSSIBLE LINE
COULD BREAK UP ENOUGH TO WHERE WE WILL NEED TO LOWER POPS IN
CENTRAL PART OF CWA BEFORE LINE REFORMS. ITS ALSO QUITE POSSIBLE
THAT THE LINE DOES NOT GET ITS ACT TOGETHER AGAIN UNTIL IT MAKES
IT EAST OF THE CWA...AND THUS LIMITED SEVERE WX
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IF THIS ENDS UP PUSHING THROUGH A LITTLE
FASTER.
CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE QUICKLY BY LATE AFT IN WEST AND EARLY
EVENING IN EAST...WITH A FEW LINGERING LOW CLOUDS IN WESTERN
SLOPES...BUT LATER ON OVERNIGHT MORE COMPLETE CLEARING EXPECTED
WITH NW WINDS 10-15 MPH.
WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON TEMPS TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND TRIED TO
SHOW SOME COOLING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND LINE OF CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON...PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT FRIDAY...
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST OF OUR REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
A LARGE 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY
AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A
MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN BRISK NW WINDS DURING THE DAY
AND WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IT WILL FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE
SPRING THAN RECENT DAYS...AT LEAST IN THOSE AREAS THAT ESCAPED THE
WEDGE. HIGHS WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL CLIMO NORMS FROM NEAR 60
FAR NW TO NEAR 70 FAR SE. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST ON
SATURDAY AND SHOULD BE PARKED ALMOST OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
DECENT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS THAT WILL CERTAINLY YIELD SOME LOWS IN
THE 30S IN THE COOLER VALLEYS. WIDELY SCATTERED FROST MAY BE A
POSSIBILITY. HIGH SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH
ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE DAY AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND TEMPS REACH LEVELS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. MONDAY LOOKS
TO BE A TRANSITION DAY AS A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
EMERGE FROM THE GULF COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHEAST FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME EVIDENT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY AND POPS RISING TO CHANCE BY MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...
OVERALL PATTERN WILL AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY MEAN 5H TROFFINESS
ACROSS THE EASTERN ROCKIES AS THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SW OPENS UP AND
RATHER FLAT FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EAST BENEATH PASSING WAVES WELL TO
THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A VERY MOIST OVERRUNNING TYPE SW FLOW BY
MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT
EMERGES INTO THE PLAINS BY DAY7. APPEARS DRIEST PERIODS WILL BE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL DIPPING
INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TO THE SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER
WEAK IMPULSES EJECTING SE ALONG THE BOUNDARY LIKELY TO PRODUCE SOME
SHOWER COVERAGE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT BEFORE THE LARGER
SWATH OF DEEPER MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN NE LATER TUESDAY WHEN WILL
HAVE HIGHER CHANCE POPS. WEAK WEDGE LOOKS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THEN
ERODE DURING THURSDAY AS THE RESIDUAL BACKDOOR FRONT STARTS TO LIFT
BACK NE AS WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE STRONGER COLD FRONT TO THE WEST.
THIS LIKELY THE PERIOD OF BETTER RAIN CHANCES ESPCLY BY THURSDAY WITH
DEEPER PWATS ARRIVING...AND PERHAPS MORE INSTABILITY WITH THE WARM
FRONT AROUND SO MAINLY HIGH CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
AFTER A COOL START WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S EARLY MONDAY...EXPECT
MAINLY UNIFORM TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK PENDING DEGREE OF INSOLATION EACH DAY AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT FRIDAY...
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH MONDAY.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM EASTERN
OHIO...SOUTHWEST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE
ALONG AND JUST IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...EASTWARD TO NEAR A
KBLF-KLWB LINE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS
ACCOMPANIED THIS ACTIVITY. EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...THE COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE BROKE THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO
GOOD MIXING OF S-SW WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. AREAS NEAR
KDAN MIXED FIRST...WITH AREAS NEAR KLYH...JUST NOW STARTING TO
TREND TOWARD UNSTABLE. WE ARE EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FIRE
THIS AFTERNOON IN AREAS NEAR KDAN THANKS TO SURFACE BASED CAPE
AROUND 1600 J/KG AND LI VALUES AROUND -6. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE EVENING. MOST AREAS WILL
EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT THOSE SPOTS UNDER THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS OR STORMS WHERE BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
THANKS TO THE APPROACH OF HIGH PRESSURE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS FROM THE LATE EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A
BIT OF A LULL TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY. WINDS WILL AGAIN BECOME
GUSTY FROM THE LATE MORNING AND ONWARD.
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
ON MONDAY...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MOST OF THESE WILL BE HIGH
BASED THROUGH THE DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF WEATHER PARAMETERS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE ON WEDNESDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SHOWERS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. ALSO...THE ANTICIPATE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF SUB-VFR CIGS AND VSBYS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE REMAINS AN AMOUNT OF QUESTION AS TO
HOW MUCH MOISTURE GETS ADVECTED UPSLOPE INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA AROUND THE EDGE OF THE
HIGH...YIELDING LOWER CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NF/SK
NEAR TERM...DS/SK
SHORT TERM...PC
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
158 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR WEDGE OF STABLE AIR WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL THEN SWEEP
THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAY TODAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1250 PM EDT FRIDAY...
THE WEDGE HAS MET ITS MATCH AND IS NO MORE ACROSS THE EAST. THE
LAST REGION WAS THE LYNCHBURG AREA...AND WITHIN THE PAST HOUR HAS
LOST ITS FOG...ITS VERY LOW CLOUD COVER...JUMPED FIVE DEGREES...AND
THE WIND HAS INCREASED FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE REGION OF SHOWERS
THAT WAS MARCHING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING HAS DECREASED IN
COVERAGE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE NORTHERN SECTION RAN INTO THE
DISSIPATING WEDGE. THE SOUTHERN SECTION NEVER REALLY GOT ITS ACT
TOGETHER. THE MAIN FRONT IT STILL WEST OF THE AREA...WHERE
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A TRAILING LINE OF SHOWERS...AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS DENOTE A DISTINCT WIND SHIFT NORTHWEST. AS THIS
FEATURE DRAWS CLOSER...THE AREA OF SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND
NEIGHBORING PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA IS NOW OUR MAIN
FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK STILL PAINTS OF SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER FOR THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE AREA GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN PULLED EASTWARD TO COINCIDE WITH ROUGHLY
THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HAVE MADE CHANGES TO THE POPS AND
WEATHER TO REFLECT THE CURRENT DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT WITH AN EXPECTATION OF AN INCREASE IN THE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON...AND TO ALSO REFLECT THE GAP OF COVERAGE CURRENTLY
CENTRAL AND WEST. CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN IN THE WEST AND
CENTRAL WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT AT THIS TIME
ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED.
AS OF 955 AM EDT FRIDAY...
THE WEDGE IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA IS PUTTING UP A GOOD
FIGHT...BUT IT WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO STRONG MIXING FROM A
LOFT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WHILE THE WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG HAS ENDED...EXPECT PATCHY FOG OR EVEN PATCHY DENSE FOG
TO SURVIVE FOR A LITTLE BIT LONGER ACROSS MAINLY PARTS OF THE
JAMES RIVER BASIN. IN THE WEST...THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA OF
SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS
REACHED ROUGHLY A BEECH MOUNTAIN NORTH CAROLINA...TO BLAND
VIRGINIA...ANJEAN WEST VIRGINIA LINE. WHILE LITTLE TO NO THUNDER
IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS REGION OF SHOWERS...WE ARE NOT
GOING TO RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STORMS AS THE
PRECIPITATION PROGRESSES INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY MIDDAY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ACTIVITY
REACHES THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND PEAK
HEATING OF THE DAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER OFFER A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM LYNCHBURG TO
REIDSVILLE AND POINTS EAST THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY CONCERN WITH ANY STORM THAT REACHED
SEVERE LEVELS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA IS WITHIN A
MARGINAL POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WITH LESS CHANCE OF
SEVERE WEATHER.
AS OF 653 AM EDT FRIDAY...
MINOR UPDATE TO SLOW DOWN ARRIVAL OF LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR WEST
PER CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...JUST BY AN HOUR OR TWO. ALSO SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS AND LOWER DEW PTS EARLY THIS MORNING THAN WHAT WE
PREVIOUSLY HAD IN THE NORTHEAST...49 AT LYNCHBURG LAST HOUR...SO
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THERE. LINE OF CONVECTION STILL ABOUT 2 HRS
AWAY FROM THE WESTERN FRINGES OF CWA...AND BEGINNING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF WEAKENING IN TERMS OF REFLECTIVITY AS WELL AS TOTAL
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. STILL MAY EVENTUALLY NEED SOME SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS FOR GUSTY WINDS IF IT MAINTAINS SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS AS IT NEARS.
PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...
WEDGE FRONT REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING FROM
NORTH-CENTRAL NC THROUGH NEW RIVER VALLEY AND THEN UP THE
VIRGINIA-WEST VIRGINIA BORDER. LOWEST VISIBILITIES ARE ALONG
SOUTHERN BORDER IN NORTHERN NC AND SOUTHSIDE VA...AND IN
COORDINATION WITH WFO RAH ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THOSE
AREAS THROUGH 9 AM. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN LIFTING NORTH
QUICKLY AROUND SUNRISE OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER...AND SO MAY END UP
CANCELING SLIGHTLY EARLY.
OTHERWISE WE ARE WATCHING LINES OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...AND THERE ARE A FEW AREAS OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NOW
OUT AHEAD OF THESE...FROM UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND A FEW IN ERN
KENTUCKY. HRRR AND HIRES WRF ARW SEEM TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON THIS
AND TIME OF ARRIVAL IN WESTERN PART OF CWA...MAINLY BETWEEN 14Z
AND 15Z...SO DELAYED LIKELY POPS UNTIL THEN...WITH SOME LOW CHC
POPS STARTING AROUND 11Z IN CASE ANYTHING CONTINUES TO POP OUT
AHEAD. ALREADY GETTING SOME VERY LOW INSTABILITY VALUES IN FAR
WEST.
MOST HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE BREAKS THE LINE UP SOMEWHAT AS IT
MOVES INTO WESTERN SLOPES...ALTHOUGH SOME SCATTERED CELLS DO MAKE
IT THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...THEN THE LINE TRIES TO REFORM
EAST OF BLUE RIDGE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THINK HRRR MAY BE A
LITTLE TOO FAST WITH THE TIMING SHOWING EVERYTHING EAST OF CWA BY
22Z...BUT IT MAY NOT BE TOO FAR OFF. STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST
HOW STRONG THIS LINE WILL GET BEFORE GETTING EAST OF THE
AREA...WITH INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT LIMITED YET SHEAR QUITE STRONG.
SHOULD BE GOOD FORCING WITH FRONT HOWEVER...SO SLIGHT RISK FROM
MTV TO LYH AND POINTS EAST LOOKS REASONABLE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS
BEING PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN QLCS TYPE OF MODE EXPECTED. HAIL SHOULD
BE BE MINIMAL GIVEN LIMITED LOW TO MODEST INSTABILITY. KEPT POPS
LOW END OF CATEGORICAL ALL THE WAY THROUGH CWA...AS MOST LOCATIONS
REALLY SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A BRIEF SHOWER...BUT IT`S POSSIBLE LINE
COULD BREAK UP ENOUGH TO WHERE WE WILL NEED TO LOWER POPS IN
CENTRAL PART OF CWA BEFORE LINE REFORMS. ITS ALSO QUITE POSSIBLE
THAT THE LINE DOES NOT GET ITS ACT TOGETHER AGAIN UNTIL IT MAKES
IT EAST OF THE CWA...AND THUS LIMITED SEVERE WX
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IF THIS ENDS UP PUSHING THROUGH A LITTLE
FASTER.
CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE QUICKLY BY LATE AFT IN WEST AND EARLY
EVENING IN EAST...WITH A FEW LINGERING LOW CLOUDS IN WESTERN
SLOPES...BUT LATER ON OVERNIGHT MORE COMPLETE CLEARING EXPECTED
WITH NW WINDS 10-15 MPH.
WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON TEMPS TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND TRIED TO
SHOW SOME COOLING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND LINE OF CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON...PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT FRIDAY...
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST OF OUR REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
A LARGE 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY
AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A
MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN BRISK NW WINDS DURING THE DAY
AND WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IT WILL FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE
SPRING THAN RECENT DAYS...AT LEAST IN THOSE AREAS THAT ESCAPED THE
WEDGE. HIGHS WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL CLIMO NORMS FROM NEAR 60
FAR NW TO NEAR 70 FAR SE. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST ON
SATURDAY AND SHOULD BE PARKED ALMOST OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
DECENT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS THAT WILL CERTAINLY YIELD SOME LOWS IN
THE 30S IN THE COOLER VALLEYS. WIDELY SCATTERED FROST MAY BE A
POSSIBILITY. HIGH SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH
ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE DAY AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND TEMPS REACH LEVELS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. MONDAY LOOKS
TO BE A TRANSITION DAY AS A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
EMERGE FROM THE GULF COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHEAST FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME EVIDENT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY AND POPS RISING TO CHANCE BY MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...
OVERALL PATTERN WILL AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY MEAN 5H TROFFINESS
ACROSS THE EASTERN ROCKIES AS THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SW OPENS UP AND
RATHER FLAT FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EAST BENEATH PASSING WAVES WELL TO
THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A VERY MOIST OVERRUNNING TYPE SW FLOW BY
MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT
EMERGES INTO THE PLAINS BY DAY7. APPEARS DRIEST PERIODS WILL BE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL DIPPING
INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TO THE SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER
WEAK IMPULSES EJECTING SE ALONG THE BOUNDARY LIKELY TO PRODUCE SOME
SHOWER COVERAGE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT BEFORE THE LARGER
SWATH OF DEEPER MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN NE LATER TUESDAY WHEN WILL
HAVE HIGHER CHANCE POPS. WEAK WEDGE LOOKS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THEN
ERODE DURING THURSDAY AS THE RESIDUAL BACKDOOR FRONT STARTS TO LIFT
BACK NE AS WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE STRONGER COLD FRONT TO THE WEST.
THIS LIKELY THE PERIOD OF BETTER RAIN CHANCES ESPCLY BY THURSDAY WITH
DEEPER PWATS ARRIVING...AND PERHAPS MORE INSTABILITY WITH THE WARM
FRONT AROUND SO MAINLY HIGH CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
AFTER A COOL START WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S EARLY MONDAY...EXPECT
MAINLY UNIFORM TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK PENDING DEGREE OF INSOLATION EACH DAY AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT FRIDAY...
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH MONDAY.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM EASTERN
OHIO...SOUTHWEST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE
ALONG AND JUST IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...EASTWARD TO NEAR A
KBLF-KLWB LINE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS
ACCOMPANIED THIS ACTIVITY. EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...THE COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE BROKE THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO
GOOD MIXING OF S-SW WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. AREAS NEAR
KDAN MIXED FIRST...WITH AREAS NEAR KLYH...JUST NOW STARTING TO
TREND TOWARD UNSTABLE. WE ARE EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FIRE
THIS AFTERNOON IN AREAS NEAR KDAN THANKS TO SURFACE BASED CAPE
AROUND 1600 J/KG AND LI VALUES AROUND -6. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE EVENING. MOST AREAS WILL
EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT THOSE SPOTS UNDER THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS OR STORMS WHERE BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
THANKS TO THE APPROACH OF HIGH PRESSURE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS FROM THE LATE EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A
BIT OF A LULL TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY. WINDS WILL AGAIN BECOME
GUSTY FROM THE LATE MORNING AND ONWARD.
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
ON MONDAY...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MOST OF THESE WILL BE HIGH
BASED THROUGH THE DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF WEATHER PARAMETERS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE ON WEDNESDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SHOWERS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. ALSO...THE ANTICIPATE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF SUB-VFR CIGS AND VSBYS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE REMAINS AN AMOUNT OF QUESTION AS TO
HOW MUCH MOISTURE GETS ADVECTED UPSLOPE INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA AROUND THE EDGE OF THE
HIGH...YIELDING LOWER CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NF/SK
NEAR TERM...DS/SK
SHORT TERM...PC
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
100 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR WEDGE OF STABLE AIR WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL THEN SWEEP
THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAY TODAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1250 PM EDT FRIDAY...
THE WEDGE HAS MET ITS MATCH AND IS NO MORE ACROSS THE EAST. THE
LAST REGION WAS THE LYNCHBURG AREA...AND WITHIN THE PAST HOUR HAS
LOST ITS FOG...ITS VERY LOW CLOUD COVER...JUMPED FIVE DEGREES...AND
THE WIND HAS INCREASED FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE REGION OF SHOWERS
THAT WAS MARCHING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING HAS DECREASED IN
COVERAGE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE NORTHERN SECTION RAN INTO THE
DISSIPATING WEDGE. THE SOUTHERN SECTION NEVER REALLY GOT ITS ACT
TOGETHER. THE MAIN FRONT IT STILL WEST OF THE AREA...WHERE
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A TRAILING LINE OF SHOWERS...AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS DENOTE A DISTINCT WIND SHIFT NORTHWEST. AS THIS
FEATURE DRAWS CLOSER...THE AREA OF SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND
NEIGHBORING PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA IS NOW OUR MAIN
FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK STILL PAINTS OF SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER FOR THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE AREA GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN PULLED EASTWARD TO COINCIDE WITH ROUGHLY
THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HAVE MADE CHANGES TO THE POPS AND
WEATHER TO REFLECT THE CURRENT DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT WITH AN EXPECTATION OF AN INCREASE IN THE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON...AND TO ALSO REFLECT THE GAP OF COVERAGE CURRENTLY
CENTRAL AND WEST. CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN IN THE WEST AND
CENTRAL WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT AT THIS TIME
ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED.
AS OF 955 AM EDT FRIDAY...
THE WEDGE IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA IS PUTTING UP A GOOD
FIGHT...BUT IT WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO STRONG MIXING FROM A
LOFT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WHILE THE WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG HAS ENDED...EXPECT PATCHY FOG OR EVEN PATCHY DENSE FOG
TO SURVIVE FOR A LITTLE BIT LONGER ACROSS MAINLY PARTS OF THE
JAMES RIVER BASIN. IN THE WEST...THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA OF
SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS
REACHED ROUGHLY A BEECH MOUNTAIN NORTH CAROLINA...TO BLAND
VIRGINIA...ANJEAN WEST VIRGINIA LINE. WHILE LITTLE TO NO THUNDER
IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS REGION OF SHOWERS...WE ARE NOT
GOING TO RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STORMS AS THE
PRECIPITATION PROGRESSES INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY MIDDAY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ACTIVITY
REACHES THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND PEAK
HEATING OF THE DAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER OFFER A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM LYNCHBURG TO
REIDSVILLE AND POINTS EAST THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY CONCERN WITH ANY STORM THAT REACHED
SEVERE LEVELS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA IS WITHIN A
MARGINAL POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WITH LESS CHANCE OF
SEVERE WEATHER.
AS OF 653 AM EDT FRIDAY...
MINOR UPDATE TO SLOW DOWN ARRIVAL OF LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR WEST
PER CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...JUST BY AN HOUR OR TWO. ALSO SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS AND LOWER DEW PTS EARLY THIS MORNING THAN WHAT WE
PREVIOUSLY HAD IN THE NORTHEAST...49 AT LYNCHBURG LAST HOUR...SO
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THERE. LINE OF CONVECTION STILL ABOUT 2 HRS
AWAY FROM THE WESTERN FRINGES OF CWA...AND BEGINNING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF WEAKENING IN TERMS OF REFLECTIVITY AS WELL AS TOTAL
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. STILL MAY EVENTUALLY NEED SOME SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS FOR GUSTY WINDS IF IT MAINTAINS SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS AS IT NEARS.
PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...
WEDGE FRONT REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING FROM
NORTH-CENTRAL NC THROUGH NEW RIVER VALLEY AND THEN UP THE
VIRGINIA-WEST VIRGINIA BORDER. LOWEST VISIBILITIES ARE ALONG
SOUTHERN BORDER IN NORTHERN NC AND SOUTHSIDE VA...AND IN
COORDINATION WITH WFO RAH ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THOSE
AREAS THROUGH 9 AM. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN LIFTING NORTH
QUICKLY AROUND SUNRISE OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER...AND SO MAY END UP
CANCELING SLIGHTLY EARLY.
OTHERWISE WE ARE WATCHING LINES OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...AND THERE ARE A FEW AREAS OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NOW
OUT AHEAD OF THESE...FROM UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND A FEW IN ERN
KENTUCKY. HRRR AND HIRES WRF ARW SEEM TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON THIS
AND TIME OF ARRIVAL IN WESTERN PART OF CWA...MAINLY BETWEEN 14Z
AND 15Z...SO DELAYED LIKELY POPS UNTIL THEN...WITH SOME LOW CHC
POPS STARTING AROUND 11Z IN CASE ANYTHING CONTINUES TO POP OUT
AHEAD. ALREADY GETTING SOME VERY LOW INSTABILITY VALUES IN FAR
WEST.
MOST HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE BREAKS THE LINE UP SOMEWHAT AS IT
MOVES INTO WESTERN SLOPES...ALTHOUGH SOME SCATTERED CELLS DO MAKE
IT THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...THEN THE LINE TRIES TO REFORM
EAST OF BLUE RIDGE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THINK HRRR MAY BE A
LITTLE TOO FAST WITH THE TIMING SHOWING EVERYTHING EAST OF CWA BY
22Z...BUT IT MAY NOT BE TOO FAR OFF. STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST
HOW STRONG THIS LINE WILL GET BEFORE GETTING EAST OF THE
AREA...WITH INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT LIMITED YET SHEAR QUITE STRONG.
SHOULD BE GOOD FORCING WITH FRONT HOWEVER...SO SLIGHT RISK FROM
MTV TO LYH AND POINTS EAST LOOKS REASONABLE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS
BEING PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN QLCS TYPE OF MODE EXPECTED. HAIL SHOULD
BE BE MINIMAL GIVEN LIMITED LOW TO MODEST INSTABILITY. KEPT POPS
LOW END OF CATEGORICAL ALL THE WAY THROUGH CWA...AS MOST LOCATIONS
REALLY SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A BRIEF SHOWER...BUT IT`S POSSIBLE LINE
COULD BREAK UP ENOUGH TO WHERE WE WILL NEED TO LOWER POPS IN
CENTRAL PART OF CWA BEFORE LINE REFORMS. ITS ALSO QUITE POSSIBLE
THAT THE LINE DOES NOT GET ITS ACT TOGETHER AGAIN UNTIL IT MAKES
IT EAST OF THE CWA...AND THUS LIMITED SEVERE WX
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IF THIS ENDS UP PUSHING THROUGH A LITTLE
FASTER.
CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE QUICKLY BY LATE AFT IN WEST AND EARLY
EVENING IN EAST...WITH A FEW LINGERING LOW CLOUDS IN WESTERN
SLOPES...BUT LATER ON OVERNIGHT MORE COMPLETE CLEARING EXPECTED
WITH NW WINDS 10-15 MPH.
WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON TEMPS TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND TRIED TO
SHOW SOME COOLING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND LINE OF CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON...PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT FRIDAY...
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST OF OUR REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
A LARGE 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY
AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A
MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN BRISK NW WINDS DURING THE DAY
AND WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IT WILL FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE
SPRING THAN RECENT DAYS...AT LEAST IN THOSE AREAS THAT ESCAPED THE
WEDGE. HIGHS WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL CLIMO NORMS FROM NEAR 60
FAR NW TO NEAR 70 FAR SE. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST ON
SATURDAY AND SHOULD BE PARKED ALMOST OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
DECENT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS THAT WILL CERTAINLY YIELD SOME LOWS IN
THE 30S IN THE COOLER VALLEYS. WIDELY SCATTERED FROST MAY BE A
POSSIBILITY. HIGH SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH
ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE DAY AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND TEMPS REACH LEVELS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. MONDAY LOOKS
TO BE A TRANSITION DAY AS A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
EMERGE FROM THE GULF COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHEAST FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME EVIDENT WITH INCREASNG CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY AND POPS RISING TO CHANCE BY MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...
OVERALL PATTERN WILL AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY MEAN 5H TROFFINESS
ACROSS THE EASTERN ROCKIES AS THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SW OPENS UP AND
RATHER FLAT FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EAST BENEATH PASSING WAVES WELL TO
THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A VERY MOIST OVERRUNNING TYPE SW FLOW BY
MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT
EMERGES INTO THE PLAINS BY DAY7. APPEARS DRIEST PERIODS WILL BE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL DIPPING
INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TO THE SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER
WEAK IMPULSES EJECTING SE ALONG THE BOUNDARY LIKELY TO PRODUCE SOME
SHOWER COVERAGE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT BEFORE THE LARGER
SWATH OF DEEPER MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN NE LATER TUESDAY WHEN WILL
HAVE HIGHER CHANCE POPS. WEAK WEDGE LOOKS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THEN
ERODE DURING THURSDAY AS THE RESIDUAL BACKDOOR FRONT STARTS TO LIFT
BACK NE AS WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE STRONGER COLD FRONT TO THE WEST.
THIS LIKELY THE PERIOD OF BETTER RAIN CHANCES ESPCLY BY THURSDAY WITH
DEEPER PWATS ARRIVING...AND PERHAPS MORE INSTABILITY WITH THE WARM
FRONT AROUND SO MAINLY HIGH CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
AFTER A COOL START WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S EARLY MONDAY...EXPECT
MAINLY UNIFORM TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK PENDING DEGREE OF INSOLATION EACH DAY AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 750 AM EDT FRIDAY...
WEDGE WILL ERODE BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z ACROSS THE AREA AND IFR
CONDITIONS WILL LIFT TO MVFR JUST AHEAD OF A LINE OF SHWRS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY IFR...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW IN IFR ANY
ANY GIVEN AIRPORT SINCE LINE WILL LIKELY BREAK APART THROUGH
CENTRAL PART OF AREA AS IT COMES THROUGH MTNS..AND THEN MAY
REDEVELOP IN PIEDMONT. SO BLF AND LWB MAY SEE BEST CHANCE LATE
THIS MORNING WITH MODERATE SHOWERS...AND THEN BY 18Z TO 19Z AT LYH
AND DAN WHEN CONVECTION REACHES THAT AREA COULD BRIEFLY SEE IFR AS
WELL. SW WINDS WILL GUST TO AS HIGH AS AS 35 KTS OR SO AHEAD OF
THE LINE...AND THEN SHIFT WEST BEHIND IT WITH SIMILAR GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES FOR LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS WITH STORMS WILL
BE LYH AND DAN AFTER 18Z. THEN WINDS BY EARLY EVENING WILL SHIFT
MORE NW AND WEAKEN TO 10-15 KTS...WITH RETURN TO VFR. PERHAPS MVFR
BROKEN CIGS AT BLF AND LWB INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE CLEARING.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
PROLONGED PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD VFR CONTINUES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME RETURN MOISTURE AND
SHOWERS WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR COULD RETURN BY LATE MONDAY BUT
BETTER CHANCES FOR MVFR OR LOCAL IFR BY TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM WEST.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NF/SK
NEAR TERM...DS/SK
SHORT TERM...PC
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...NF/RAB/SK