Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/06/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
919 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
.UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO EXIT THE REGION TAKING THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION WITH IT. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO A WARM
FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT
STILL EXPECTING A FEW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT BASED
ON THE HRRR OUTPUT.
TEMPERATURES ALREADY CLOSE TO FORECASTED LOWS IN SOME AREAS AND
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. DO NOT BELIEVE THERE WILL BE MUCH OF A DROP
OFF TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUD COVER CONTINUE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2015/
DISCUSSION...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
AVIATION...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OVER THE STATE MON MORNING...AND
CHANCES FOR SHRA WILL PERSIST OFF AN ON THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY ON
MON. OVERNIGHT INTO MON MORNING...EXPECT THE VFR CONDITIONS
INITIALLY TO DROP TO MVFR OR LOWER AS THE MOISTURE LIFTS
NORTH...WITH LOWERING CIGS AND VIS EXPECTED. SOME DZ WILL ALSO BE
SEEN. IMPROVEMENTS WILL THEN BE SEEN BY LATE MON AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2015/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING INTO ARKANSAS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE...
WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND FOG DEVELOPING.
ON MONDAY...THE FRONT WILL EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH FOG
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING AND SHOWERS BECOMING MORE ISOLATED. IT WILL
ALSO BE WARMER.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL GO BY TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY...WITH CONTINUED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE STATE. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE NOTED...AND
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED.
NOT MUCH WILL CHANGE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SPRINGLIKE TEMPERATURES
AND SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A NEW STORM SYSTEM WILL BE
ON THE HORIZON IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THIS WILL BE SOMETHING
TO WATCH TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW.
THE FRONT MAY HANG UP A LITTLE BEFORE CROSSING THE MISSISSIPPI...AND
HAVE HELD ON TO POPS A LITTLE LONGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FOR SUNDAY...AS IS
TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 53 71 63 77 / 30 30 20 10
CAMDEN AR 57 79 65 82 / 50 30 10 10
HARRISON AR 51 73 61 77 / 20 20 20 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 56 76 64 79 / 50 20 10 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 55 76 63 80 / 60 30 10 10
MONTICELLO AR 57 77 64 81 / 60 30 10 10
MOUNT IDA AR 56 75 63 78 / 50 20 10 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 51 73 60 80 / 20 20 20 10
NEWPORT AR 54 71 64 79 / 40 30 20 10
PINE BLUFF AR 56 77 63 80 / 50 30 10 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 54 75 62 79 / 40 30 10 10
SEARCY AR 54 74 61 77 / 40 30 20 10
STUTTGART AR 56 75 63 80 / 60 30 10 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
56
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
142 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. DRY AND BLUSTERY WEATHER FOLLOWS
SATURDAY MIDDAY SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT MAY SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. MORE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOLLOW
WITH A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. A DISTURBANCE MAY BRING RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND A SECOND ONE MAY BRING MORE
WET WEATHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP MAKING ITS WAY INTO WRN CT/MA THIS HOUR AS
LOW PRES CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS PA/SRN NY PER MSAS. WILL BEGIN
TO SEE PRECIP SHIELD FILL IN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...HOWEVER
WILL LIKELY BE A SPLIT BETWEEN OFFSHORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
COLOCATED WITH THE MORE ROBUST LLJ AND THE DEFORMATION/F-GEN
INDUCED PRECIP TO THE N OF THE LOW. GIVEN THE TRACK IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY DIRECTLY ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND...THIS
ACTUALLY PUTS US BETWEEN THE TWO HEAVY PRECIPITATION AXES. HAVE
HIGHLIGHTED POPS WITH THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THIS THINKING.
ALSO...ALTHOUGH WE CONTINUE TO SEE AN INCREASE IN FOG DEVELOPMENT
IT CONTINUES TO BE LESS DENSE ACROSS BOX THAN IT DOES OKX CWA.
THEREFORE...WILL BE HOLDING OFF ON ANY FOG HEADLINES WITH THIS
UPDATE...BUT IT MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED AS HRRR GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO HIGHLIGHT A SHIELD OF LOWER DENSE FOG BLOSSOMING UP TO ABOUT
THE MASS PIKE OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WILL
SEE TWO AREAS OF FOCUS FOR WET-WEATHER IMPACTS BEGINNING AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND CONCLUDING TOWARDS MORNING:
1) LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NOSE OF THE H85 JET
MAINLY ACROSS THE S-COASTLINE OF NEW ENGLAND. HERE THE COMBINATION
OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY /CONVECTIVE
INDICES JUST AT OR NEAR THRESHOLDS/ WILL BRING WITH IT THE THREAT
OF HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT BULK OF THE RAIN
WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE ALONG WITH THE THUNDER THREAT. NEVERTHELESS
HAVE ISOLATED WORDING IN THE FORECAST WITH THE EXPECTATION OF
HEAVY RAIN CHANCES OVER S/SE MA AND RI... ESPECIALLY THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF AROUND 0.5 INCHES EXPECTED...BUT
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WHEN ALL IS SAID
AND DONE. HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER NANTUCKET. LOW CONFIDENCE
/ RISK WITH RESPECT TO FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS ...
2) MID-LEVEL FORCING COLLOCATED WITH FRONTOGENESIS / DEFORMATION
TOWARDS THE NW- QUADRANT OF THE LOW. A BROADSCALE AREA OF OUTCOMES
MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS N NEW ENGLAND. THIS PUTS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF NEW ENGLAND IN SOMEWHAT OF A LULL OF PRECIPITATION BETWEEN THE
TWO AREAS OF BEST FORCING. SUBSEQUENTLY IT IS FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS
N CT AND CENTRAL MA WHERE AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AROUND 0.25
INCHES...SLIGHTLY HIGHER N AND W CLOSER TO AREAS OF BETTER LIFT.
ANOTHER FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS WITH RESPECT TO DENSE FOG.
PRESENTLY OBSERVATIONS ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND THE S-COAST OF CT
WERE REPORTING QUARTER-MILE VISIBILITIES. FEEL THE HRRR HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON OUTCOMES. IT IS QUITE PLAUSIBLE THAT AREAS OF S/SE NEW
ENGLAND WILL FIND ITSELF IN A SOUP. CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW IS OF
SEEING A MAJORITY OF FOG IMPACTS AT HALF A MILE. COMBINATION OF
RAIN AND SOME BREEZY SW-WINDS OFF THE OCEAN MAY LIMIT FOG FROM
BECOMING TOO DENSE. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO GO WITH
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND WILL BRIEF ONCOMING SHIFTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SATURDAY...
BULK OF RAINFALL WILL BE EXITING THE REGION BY 12Z AS THE LOW
MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND DRY SLOT MOVES IN FROM THE SW.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY SAT...OTHERWISE CLOUDS GIVE
WAY TO PTSUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BY MIDDAY...
THEN SLOWLY FALL IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIND WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ALONG WITH STRONG PRES RISES. 850 MB
WINDS 40-50 KT AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX SOME OF THIS DOWN IN
GUSTS. SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 40 KT SO WE CONTINUED
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE AREA.
SATURDAY NIGHT...
DRY AND COLD WITH DIMINISHING WIND. COLD FRONT DROPS S INTO N NEW
ENG LATE SAT NIGHT AND THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME EXTRA CLOUDS
MOVING DOWN FROM THE N...ESPECIALLY N ZONES. LOW MOSTLY IN THE
20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL BRING A SMALL CURVATURE IN WHAT IS OTHERWISE FLAT FLOW OVER
THE NORTHEAST USA. SHORTWAVE AND JET MOVE OUT OF THE WEST DURING
THE WEEKEND AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER EARLY NEXT WEEK. PACIFIC
CLOSED LOW MOVES ASHORE IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TUESDAY AND
MIGRATES EAST MIDWEEK...MERGING WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM OVER
THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY.
SIMILARITY AMONG THE MODELS THROUGH TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES
IN SPEED OF SHORTWAVES IN THE ZONAL FLOW. ALSO DIFFERENCES IN
HANDLING THE EJECTION OF CALIFORNIA LOW PRESSURE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN...IT/S A
CAVALCADE OF SHORTWAVES...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL SURFACE FEATURES AND RESULTING SENSIBLE WEATHER.
THE DAILIES...
SUNDAY...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE
LEAD AND WINDS OF 30-40 KNOTS AT 850 MB. WE SHOULD GET A SUNNY
START...WHICH WILL ALLOW MIXING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW DEEPLY WE MIX BEFORE THE FRONTAL CLOUDS GET
TOO THICK. DEEPER MIXING WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF TAPPING THE
STRONGER WINDS. TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE -4C TO -6C WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...MIXING TO 900 MB
WOULD SUGGEST 40S. WE OPTED FOR THE DEEPER MIXING. SUFFICIENT
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS. ALSO NOTE THAT
TOTAL-TOTALS REACH THE UPPER 40S MOST AREAS BY EVENING. THIS WOULD
INDICATE CONVECTION POTENTIAL...BUT IS NOT SUPPORTED BY OTHER
PARAMETERS AT THIS TIME. BEARS WATCHING.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...
COLD FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LOW PRESSURE WAVE
TRAVELS ALONG THE FRONT AND MAY BE ABLE TO PULL IT NORTH OF OUR
AREA BY MONDAY. IF SO THEN THIS WOULD PLUNGE ALL OF OUR AREA INTO
THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE DAY. DEW POINTS 25-30 SUNDAY NIGHT MAY
ALLOW TEMPS TO WET BULB DURING ANY SHOWERS...AND CHANGE TO SNOW
SHOWERS. BUT AS THE WARMER AIR MOVES IN...ANY PCPN SHOULD CHANGE
BACK TO RAIN.
GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE LOW ALONG THE FRONT...EXPECT THE BEST SUPPORT
OF PCPN MONDAY WILL BE NORTH OF OUR AREA. WE WILL SHOW CHANCE POPS
IN NORTHERN MASS DIMINISHING TO BELOW 15 PCT SOUTH OF US-44. TEMPS
AT 850 MB CLIMB TO 2C SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC
TEMPS 60-65. THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKAGE OF THE SKY COVER BUT WITH
LESS FAVORABLE MIXING THAN SUNDAY. SO WE WILL GO A LITTLE LOWER THAN
THE FULL POTENTIAL...MID 50S TO AROUND 60 EXCEPT 45-55 WHERE THE
WIND IS OFF THE WATER.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...
COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER QUEBEC. THIS SHOULD BRING A CHILLY EAST- NORTHEAST WIND TO
THE REGION. MEANWHILE A SHORTWAVE AND ITS SUPPORTING JET RACE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN USA AND GENERATE ANOTHER WAVE ALONG THE FRONT
BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS DIMINISHES WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS NOTED
ABOVE...LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE. IT COULD BE A
LITTLE SOONER OR IT COULD WAIT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COMES OUT OF CALIFORNIA FOR LATE WEEK. THIS
SHOULD DEVELOP A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE LOW OVER THE PLAINS
WHICH WILL MOVE UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. TIMING OF MOVEMENT AND ARRIVAL OF THIS
SYSTEM REMAIN IN QUESTION...BUT CARRY A POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SHOWERS
SOMETIME DURING THE LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THROUGH 14Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MIX OF LIFR/IFR WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO BRIEF MVFR THEN TO VFR.
EXPECT THE IMPROVEMENT AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW...MAINLY 10Z-14Z
FROM SW TO NE. UNTIL THEN...PERIODS OF RAIN/DENSE/FOG AND LOW CIGS
CONTINUE.
THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR AFTER IMPROVEMENT THIS MORNING. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE
WINDS...WNW 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT POSSIBLE AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME LLWS ALSO
POSSIBLE...WITH 50 KT AT TIMES AT AROUND 2KFT. WINDS DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
.OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SUNDAY-MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25-30 KNOTS SUNDAY.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. TUESDAY MAY START VFR BUT
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN OR MIXED
RAIN/SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
7 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.
TONIGHT...
SW FLOW RAMPS UP AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS AS LOW LEVEL
JET APPROACHES BUT INVERSION WILL LIKELY KEEP GUSTS BELOW 30 KT.
VSBYS REDUCED IN SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY S
COASTAL WATERS.
SATURDAY...
WINDS SHIFT TO NW WITH STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND FROPA AS
LOW PRES MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. GALE WARNINGS WILL BE
ISSUED FOR GUSTS 35-45 KT...STRONGEST OVER E MA COASTAL WATERS.
IMPROVING VSBYS AFTER WIND SHIFT TO NW.
SATURDAY NIGHT...
LINGERING GALES POSSIBLY E WATERS IN THE EVENING...OTHERWISE
DIMINISHING WIND WITH GUSTS DROPPING BELOW SCA LATE SAT NIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SUNDAY...
INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REACH 25-30 KNOTS...WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE OF GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
GALES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. BUILDING SEAS WITH
HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 8 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN EXPOSED WATERS...5 TO 6
FEET ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ARE
LIKELY...WITH A LOW-END CHANCE OF GALES ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
MONDAY...
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL MAINTAIN 5-6 FOOT SEAS ON THE
SOUTHERN WATERS WHILE CONDITIONS ARE LIGHTER EAST OF MA. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY CONTINUE ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...
EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS BOTH DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
EASTERN CANADA. WINDS EXPECTED TO 20 KNOTS TUESDAY AND 20-25 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS TUESDAY...BUILDING TO 5-8 FEET WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL OF 0.25 TO 0.50" EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ACROSS THE S/SE COASTLINE INCLUDING
OFFSHORE ISLANDS. VERY LITTLE SNOW LEFT IN E MA WITH 1-3 INCHES
SWE LEFT IN CENTRAL AND W MA. FORECAST RAINFALL AND INTERIOR
SNOWMELT NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING. NERFC HAS A
FEW RIVERS IN EASTERN MA REACHING ACTION STAGE INCLUDING THE NORTH
NASHUA...ASSABET...SUDBURY...AND TAUNTON RIVER AT BRIDGEWATER...AS
WELL AS THE PAWCATUCK IN SW RI. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR RIVERS
THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR CTZ002>004.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR MAZ002>024-026.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ017>024.
RI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR RIZ001>008.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR ANZ230-232>235-237.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR ANZ231-251.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR ANZ236.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
FOR ANZ250-254.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR ANZ255-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC/DOODY
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DOODY/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/KJC
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
255 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT/SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA
CONTINUES TO BE PUSHED SOUTHEAST BY A COLD FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS
SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. RADAR MOSAIC LOOP FOR
THE SOUTHEAST SHOWING A LINE OF BROKEN SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING
FROM THE TALLAHASSEE AREA INTO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND NORTH
FLORIDA AREAS. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS DELAYED EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE FORMATION NORTH OF THE CAPE BUT MESONET OBS SHOW THE SEA
BREEZE HAS FORMED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE VOLUSIA COAST AND
CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY INLAND SOUTH OF THE CAPE.
THE HRRR AND OTHER LOCAL SMALL SCALE SHORT TERM MODELS PLACE THE
COLD FRONT OVER NORTH FLORIDA AROUND SUNSET. MOST/ALL OF EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA`S WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE DRIVEN BY
MESOSCALE/SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. THE 8AM CAPE CANAVERAL AND
TAMPA SOUNDINGS SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM AROUND 0.78 TO
1.02 INCHES OF WATER IN THE LAYER. THE CURRENT LATE AFTERNOON 20 TO
30 POP FROM FAR NORTHERN BREVARD...SEMINOLE AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH LAKE COUNTIES NORTH LOOKS REASONABLE. TO THE SOUTH...SEA/LAKE
BREEZE INITIATION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF ANY
PRECIPITATION.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS AND THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT STRETCHES WEST EAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE HIGH INTERACTS WITH THE SLOWLY
RETREATING/DEPARTING FRONTAL TROUGH/BOUNDARY. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY AT THE COAST.
NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW ALSO PULLS MARINE STRATO CU ASHORE MAKING FOR
MOSTLY TO CLOUDY SKIES.
MON-MON NIGHT...RATHER FLAT MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY
OVER THE GOMEX. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WITH OCCASIONAL PIECES OF ENERGY RIDING OVER THE RIDGE AND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PENINSULA. RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FRONT STILL LINGERS OVER THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 1.50 INCHES. 500 MB TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM -11C/-
12C. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE AND INLAND MOVEMENT DURING THE DAY. WILL CARRY LOW
END CHANCES (30 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION IN
THE AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY SPREADS INLAND. HIGHS IN THE U70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES AT THE COAST WITH L80S AND PERHAPS A FEW M80S
INLAND.
TUE-FRI...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO DEEP LAYER MOISTURE VALUES DURING
THIS PERIOD...THOUGH GREATEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR CWA. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GOMEX WILL
CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY THROUGH WED BEFORE SLIDING FURTHER EAST ACROSS
THE PENINSULA ON THU THEN OFF OF THE EAST COAST INTO FRI. THE
WESTERN ATLC RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE WILL SLIDE
SOUTHWARD TO ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FL FOR WED-FRI. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL REMAIN MAINLY ONSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONTINUE SMALL THREAT
FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS TUE-WED...THEN AGAIN ON FRI. HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.
ISOLATED THUNDER MAY NEED TO BE ADDED FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
PERIODS BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST JUST YET. CONTINUED
WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR ALL SITES THROUGH 05/02Z THEN MVFR CEILINGS BKN020-025 AS FRONT
MOVES OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA.
&&
.MARINE...
NOAA BUOYS RECORDING WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND 2 TO 3
FOOT SEAS. WINDS HAVE TURNED ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST AS LOCAL SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION FORM.
MODEL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FLAGLER BEACH TO SEBASTIAN INLET MOST LIKE TO BE ISSUED FOR AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH THE AFTERNOON MARINE FORECAST.
MON-WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MID-WEEK.
AN ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT (E-SE) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
SEAS WILL BE ON A SLOW SUBSIDING TREND WITH INITIAL 5-6 FT SEAS OVER
THE OPEN ATLC FALLING TO 3-4 FT ON TUE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 68 77 66 81 / 40 30 20 30
MCO 66 85 67 86 / 20 30 20 40
MLB 68 81 68 82 / 20 30 20 30
VRB 64 82 67 82 / 20 30 20 30
LEE 65 81 67 86 / 30 30 20 40
SFB 67 82 67 85 / 30 30 20 40
ORL 66 82 68 85 / 20 30 20 40
FPR 65 83 68 82 / 20 30 20 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.
&&
$$
KELLY/WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
955 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
.DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA
CONTINUES TO BE PUSHED SOUTHEAST BY A COLD FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS
SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. RADAR MOSAIC LOOP FOR
THE SOUTHEAST SHOWING A LINE OF BROKEN SHOWERS AND NOT MUCH IF ANY
IN THE WAY OF STORMS.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO
NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. FIRST COUPLE OF
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND WALK OUTSIDE TO STRETCH LEGS AND TAKE A
LOCAL OB SHOWED MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOW 70S AT 9AM WILL RISE QUICKLY ONCE THE SUN GETS HIGHER IN THE
SKY AND THE LOWEST/SURFACE LEVELS START WARMING UP.
THE HRRR AND OTHER LOCAL SMALL SCALE SHORT TERM MODELS PLACE THE
COLD FRONT OVER NORTH FLORIDA AROUND SUNSET. MOST/ALL OF EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA`S WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE DRIVEN BY
MESOSCALE/SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. THE 8AM CAPE CANAVERAL AND
TAMPA SOUNDINGS SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM AROUND 0.78 TO
1.02 INCHES OF WATER IN THE LAYER. THE CURRENT LATE AFTERNOON 20 TO
30 POP FROM FAR NORTHERN BREVARD...SEMINOLE AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH LAKE COUNTIES NORTH LOOKS REASONABLE. TO THE SOUTH...SEA/LAKE
BREEZE INITIATION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF ANY
PRECIPITATION.
WILL WATCH TEMPERATURE TREND FOR ANOTHER HOUR BEFORE MAKING ANY
ADJUSTMENT TO MAX TEMPERATURES.
.AVIATION...VFR ALL SITES THROUGH 20Z. 20Z-24Z...TEMPO LOCAL MVFR
DUE TO ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS FROM KTIX-KORL-KLEE NORTH. AFT 00Z
BKN-OVC VFR WITH TEMPO MVFR DUE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATES STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN THE PENINSULA.
.MARINE...BUOYS RECORDING SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND 2 TO 3
FOOT SEAS. WINDS TURN ONSHORE BY MID AFTERNOON AS LOCAL SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS FORM AND PUSH WEST/INLAND.
MODEL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FLAGLER BEACH TO SEBASTIAN INLET MOST LIKE TO BE ISSUED FOR AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH THE AFTERNOON MARINE FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR WARM DRY
CONDITIONS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WL BEGIN TO BREAK TODAY AS AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE MOVES EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND
SOUTHEAST STATES INTO TONIGHT. THE UPR WAVE WL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WL MAKE PROGRESS SOUTH INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY WL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING
RAIN CHCS TO 20 TO 25 PERCENT VOLUSIA AND NRN LAKE COUNTIES ALONG
WITH AN ISOLATED STORM INITIALLY OVER N CENTRAL FL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON MENTIONABLE SHOWERS WL SPREAD SOUTH MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
INTO TONIGHT. DESPITE THE APPROACH OF THE SFC FRONT RAIN CHCS LOOK
ON THE LOWER SIDE DUE TO ONLY MARGINAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
MEASURED RAIN AMOUNTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT SHOULD AVERAGE LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IN AFFECTED AREAS. ONSHORE WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND
TEMPS WILL NOT FALL MUCH DESPITE THE PSG OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
SUN-SUN NIGHT...DEEPENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE INCREASING
CLOUDINESS FROM THE COAST INLAND WITH SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES AND
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS ALSO POSSIBLE. BREEZY ENE/E WIND
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE FELT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE VOLUSIA COAST
MAY REALIZE M70S FOR HIGHS WITH U70S/L80S ELSEWHERE. ISOLATED SHOWER
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST
INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS LIKELY REMAINING A BIT
ELEVATED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. MILD LOWS WELL INTO THE 60S.
MON-MON NIGHT...RATHER FLAT MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY
OVER THE GOMEX. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WITH OCCASIONAL PIECES OF ENERGY RIDING OVER THE RIDGE AND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PENINSULA. RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FRONT STILL LINGERS OVER THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 1.50 INCHES. 500 MB TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM -11C/-
12C. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE AND INLAND MOVEMENT DURING THE DAY. WILL CARRY LOW
END CHANCES (30 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION IN
THE AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY SPREADS INLAND. HIGHS IN THE U70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES AT THE COAST WITH L80S AND PERHAPS A FEW M80S
INLAND.
TUE-FRI...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO DEEP LAYER MOISTURE VALUES DURING
THIS PERIOD...THOUGH GREATEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR CWA. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GOMEX WILL
CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY THROUGH WED BEFORE SLIDING FURTHER EAST ACROSS
THE PENINSULA ON THU THEN OFF OF THE EAST COAST INTO FRI. THE
WESTERN ATLC RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE WILL SLIDE
SOUTHWARD TO ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FL FOR WED-FRI. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL REMAIN MAINLY ONSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONTINUE SMALL THREAT
FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS TUE-WED...THEN AGAIN ON FRI. HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.
ISOLATED THUNDER MAY NEED TO BE ADDED FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
PERIODS BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST JUST YET. CONTINUED
WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...THE NEXT 12 TO 18H WL BE MARKED BY VFR CONDS ALL SITES.
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AOA FL 035 WL OCCUR MAINLY FM DAB-SFB-LEE AFT
00Z TONIGHT WITH SOME LWR CIGS AND ISOLD SHRA SPREADING S TO MLB-
KISM AFT 04/04Z.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...BOATING CONDS WL BE FAVORABLE DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS WITH SEAS NR 2-3 FT AND WINDS AT TO BELOW 10 KNOTS.
THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERING THE WATERS FROM FLAGLER
BEACH SOUTHWARD TONIGHT WILL STEADILY INCREASE ONSHORE WINDS AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE WATERS
LATE TONIGHT INITIALLY NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL WITH BUILDING SEAS
AND SWELL.
SUN-SUN NIGHT...MAINLY POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS WITH INITIAL NE/ENE
WINDS VEERING TO ESE LATE OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS NEAR 20 KTS GREET
THE NEW DAY NORTH OF THE VOLUSIA-BREVARD LINE AND WILL SPREAD
SOUTHWARD SLOWLY TO NEAR SEBASTIAN INLET. WIND SPEEDS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE TO BETWEEN 10-15 KTS BY DAYBREAK MON MORNING. SEAS WILL
SLOWLY START TO BUILD WITH THE INCREASING WINDS AND WILL INCREASE TO
6-8 FT NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET (OFFSHORE) BY EARLY EVENING.
ELSEWHERE SEAS WILL BUILD AWAY FROM THE COAST UP TO 4-6 FT.
MON-WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MID-WEEK.
AN ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT (E-SE) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
SEAS WILL BE ON A SLOW SUBSIDING TREND WITH INITIAL 5-6 FT SEAS OVER
THE OPEN ATLC FALLING TO 3-4 FT ON TUE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 85 67 76 66 / 20 30 30 20
MCO 86 67 82 66 / 10 20 30 10
MLB 84 69 79 68 / 10 20 40 20
VRB 85 66 80 67 / 10 20 40 20
LEE 84 65 80 67 / 20 20 30 10
SFB 86 67 78 66 / 20 20 30 10
ORL 85 68 79 67 / 10 20 30 10
FPR 85 65 80 68 / 10 20 40 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...KELLY
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER
SHORT TERM...PENDERGRAST
LONG TERM....SEDLOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
229 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...
404 AM CDT
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
BREEZY...DRY AND MILDER WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND THANKS TO DEVELOPMENT OF BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL
DEVELOP EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-
ATLANTIC STATES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH DRY AIR ACROSS THE
REGION...THE FOCUS FOR ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT
WAVE AND SURFACE REFLECTION PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES TODAY
AND TRAIL A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO
OUR NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY. HAVE GENERALLY GONE A LITTLE ABOVE
WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND.
OTHER THAN A PATCH OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
ADVECTION SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN LAKES SYSTEM...SUNNY SKIES ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR NOTED IN UPSTREAM 00Z RAOBS.
WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICTING MIXING TO AROUND 800 MB OR SO...
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 APPEAR REASONABLE
WITH GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 MPH. ANOTHER MINOR MID-
LEVEL WAVE RIPPLES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT...INCREASING
CLOUDS ACROSS NORTH PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT MAINTAINING
FOCUS FOR PRECIP ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS WI/MI. PERSISTENT
WARM ADVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY INTO SUNDAY WILL SUPPORT EVEN
WARMER TEMPS TO ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND...WITH LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROGS INDICATING HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 60S. ONE CAVEAT IS THAT THE
COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH MAY SAG DOWN THE LAKE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND MAY SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
ILLINOIS LAKE SHORE LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING AND BRING COOLER TEMPS
TO THOSE AREAS. GUIDANCE THEN STALLS OUT THE FRONT ALONG THE IL/WI
BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS FOR MOST OF THE CWA
KEEPING OVERNIGHT MINS TEMPS IN THE 40S...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTH
SUBURBS OF CHICAGO WHERE THE COOLER AIR OF THE LAKE WILL PRODUCE
TEMPS IN THE 30S.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
229 PM CDT
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE TIMING OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK AS WE HEAD INTO A
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN.
A VERY ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER STILL LOOKS ON TAP FOR THE MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK AS A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES QUASI-
STATIONARY RIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERAL MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO EJECT EASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS UPPER
TROUGH...AND EACH OF THESE WILL LIKELY DRIVE SURFACE WAVES EASTWARD
ALONG THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE. AS SUCH...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE VERY
GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...IT WILL NOT
BE RAINING CONSTANTLY. INSTEAD...THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE TIED TO THE TIMING OF EACH OF THESE WAVES OF ENERGY.
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ON MONDAY NIGHT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS BEFORE STALLING OUT
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY TUESDAY MORNING. IT STILL APPEARS THAT
THE FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FIRST GOOD PUSH OF MOISTURE OCCURS AHEAD OF THE
FIRST APPROACHING WAVE. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAIRY STEEP (E.G., AROUND 7 DEG C/KM)...SO SOME
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE A DECENT BET WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
ANOTHER WAVE OF ACTIVITY IS ALSO LIKELY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE A MAINLY DRY DAY ACROSS THE REGION AS
WE END UP WAITING FOR THE NEXT WAVE OF ENERGY TO APPROACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES WITH THE TIMING
OF THE EJECTION OF THE MAIN SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS LATE IN THE PERIOD AS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH THE
TIMING IN A HURRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS THE MAIN SYSTEM
DOES BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...IT COULD END
UP RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF STRONG CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER...OR
NEAR THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD CERTAINLY
BE CONDUCIVE TO SUPPORT STRONG CONVECTION IF THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
STORM SYSTEM DOES GET ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. AT THIS TIME...THERE
ARE STILL LARGE UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW THIS LATER WEEK SYSTEM WILL
EVOLVE...AND HENCE HOW FOR NORTH THE WARM SECTOR MAY GET. IN SPITE
OF THESE UNCERTAINTIES...HOWEVER...THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG OR
SEVERE STORMS NEAR THE AREA. GOOD AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF BETTER DEEP
MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE MILD SOUTH AND COOL
NORTH...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO THE PROLONGED ONSHORE
FLOW PATTERN.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* STRONG GUSTY WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 23-00Z
* LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO DEVELOP AROUND 06Z
ED F
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
WINDS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS PACKAGE.
WINDS ALREADY GUSTING 28 KTS AT ROCHELLE AND DE KALB IN THE PAST
HOUR AS SLIGHTLY TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVES EAST INTO THE
AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON MIXING OF HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR
ALOFT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF G30 KT WINDS TO THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON.
WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS WILL EASE OFF DURING THE 22Z-00Z TIME PERIOD
WITH GUSTS COMPLETELY SUBSIDING AFTER 00Z. EXPECT LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET STREAK WINDS
NOSING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BEST ESTIMATES PEG A
LAYER OF 40 KT WINDS ABOUT 2K FEET ABOVE THE GROUND FOR MUCH OF
THE OVERNIGHT TILL ABOUT A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY.
WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS WILL THEN INCREASE AT THE SURFACE BY LATE
MORNING SUNDAY WITH CONTINUED BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
ED F
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SURFACE WIND FORECASTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FORECAST OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
ED F
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* SUNDAY NIGHT...DRY/VFR. SOUTH WINDS.
* MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. EAST WINDS.
* TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST
WINDS.
* THURSDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST WINDS.
* FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
319 AM...STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTH TODAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DISSIPATES BY
THIS EVENING. BUT THIS WEAK LOW WILL LEAVE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE THAT WILL EXTEND WEST TO
ANOTHER LOW OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SLOWLY SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY REACHING THE SOUTHERN END
OF THE LAKE MONDAY...THOUGH SPECIFIC MOVEMENT/LOCATION OF THIS
FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS LOW AND CHANGES CAN BE EXPECTED.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKES REGION THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1248 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
High pressure centered from Oklahoma to Kentucky will provide dry
and brisk southwest flow across Illinois today, as low pressure
passes by to the north across the western Great Lakes. Very dry
air is associated with the chilly Canadian airmass, as dewpoints
linger in the lower 20s across most of the area. The dry air will
warm quickly in the full sunshine, helping to push highs into the
low 60s. Relative humidity levels will dip to below 25 pct in the
gusty afternoon winds, which will create a higher fire danger if
any grass fires develop.
The forecast grids are in good shape and only minor updates were
needed to the hourly temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
The latest surface map has high pressure centered over southern
Kansas and is expected to drift into southern Missouri by later this
afternoon bringing quiet weather to the region. After a rather frosty
start to the day with early morning lows as cold as the middle 20s
in our northwest to the lower 30s southeast, we look for temps to
recover nicely this afternoon with forecast soundings indicating
lower 60s across the west with upper 50s far east. In addition, with
a well mixed boundary layer forecast, especially across the north,
we should see some gusty southwest winds this afternoon not only
helping to push temps a few degrees above guid, but also transporting
some drier air down as well with dew points out to our northwest
late yesterday afternoon in the single digits. HRRR and Rapid
Refresh guidance indicating gusts of 25 to 30 mph across the north
this afternoon with the winds expected to diminish rapidly by early
this evening.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
Active pattern expected for the next several days. Main forecast
challenge will be trying to pin down any significant breaks in the
precipitation next week. However, dry conditions are on tap for the
remainder of the weekend.
Departing surface high pressure over the Tennessee Valley will lead
to rather breezy conditions on Sunday, with some gusts to around 30
mph. Focus then shifts to a shortwave coming up from the desert
Southwest. Have slowed the arrival of the showers/storms a bit
Sunday night and limited them to the post-midnight period, as best
moisture availability will be more toward the Ohio Valley and points
southward. On Monday, despite being in the warmer sector with the
frontal boundary closer to the I-80 corridor, models showing little
in the way of CAPE and a fair amount of CIN during the day over our
area. So, have focused more of the thunder chances across the
southwest third of the CWA.
Developing surface low over the central Plains on Monday is expected
to pull the frontal boundary southward. Evening models have trended
a bit further south with this drifting of the boundary. The GFS
brings it to around I-72 by Tuesday evening and I-70 by Wednesday
morning, while the ECMWF is about 50-75 miles further south of the
GFS at these points. Currently thinking the thunder potential would
be more in the southern half of the CWA, although have kept some
mention across the north as the low level shear may be enough to
compensate.
Future movements of this boundary later in the week will be dictated
by an upper low that will be coming onshore of the northern
California coast late Tuesday. Model differences begin to widen by
Thursday, with the GFS maintaining a more solid closed low tracking
into Minnesota by late week, while the ECMWF favors more of an open
wave solution. Both of these solutions drag the front back north mid
week as another surface low forms over the central Plains. Some
break in the rain is likely Wednesday morning across the north, with
shower/storm chances increasing again as the front lifts north. Have
maintained likely PoP`s for much of the Wednesday night through
Thursday night period. Friday is more of a question mark, as the
latest ECMWF solution maintains decent rain chances across the
north, while the GFS forms more of a stronger mid-latitude cyclone
and quickly sweeps the front through the area Friday morning. Have
maintained the PoP`s for now, given the uncertainty and the distance
into the future.
Temperatures will be a bit tricky with the waffling of the frontal
boundary, but have highs reaching the 70s mid week south of the
front, perhaps as far north as Peoria by Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours, as the skies
remain SKC. Gusty SW winds will be the main concern, as our area
sits between high pressure to the SW and low pressure over the
western Great Lakes. Winds speeds during peak heating will gust to
18-20kt at times this afternoon. Winds and gusts will subside with
sunset, then become gusty from the SW to 18kt again after 15z
tomorrow morning.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1111 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...
404 AM CDT
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
BREEZY...DRY AND MILDER WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND THANKS TO DEVELOPMENT OF BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL
DEVELOP EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-
ATLANTIC STATES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH DRY AIR ACROSS THE
REGION...THE FOCUS FOR ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT
WAVE AND SURFACE REFLECTION PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES TODAY
AND TRAIL A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO
OUR NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY. HAVE GENERALLY GONE A LITTLE ABOVE
WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND.
OTHER THAN A PATCH OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
ADVECTION SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN LAKES SYSTEM...SUNNY SKIES ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR NOTED IN UPSTREAM 00Z RAOBS.
WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICTING MIXING TO AROUND 800 MB OR SO...
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 APPEAR REASONABLE
WITH GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 MPH. ANOTHER MINOR MID-
LEVEL WAVE RIPPLES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT...INCREASING
CLOUDS ACROSS NORTH PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT MAINTAINING
FOCUS FOR PRECIP ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS WI/MI. PERSISTENT
WARM ADVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY INTO SUNDAY WILL SUPPORT EVEN
WARMER TEMPS TO ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND...WITH LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROGS INDICATING HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 60S. ONE CAVEAT IS THAT THE
COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH MAY SAG DOWN THE LAKE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND MAY SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
ILLINOIS LAKE SHORE LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING AND BRING COOLER TEMPS
TO THOSE AREAS. GUIDANCE THEN STALLS OUT THE FRONT ALONG THE IL/WI
BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS FOR MOST OF THE CWA
KEEPING OVERNIGHT MINS TEMPS IN THE 40S...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTH
SUBURBS OF CHICAGO WHERE THE COOLER AIR OF THE LAKE WILL PRODUCE
TEMPS IN THE 30S.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
404 AM CDT
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
AN ACTIVE PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA AT THE START OF THE
WEEK AS THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH SAGS INTO IL/IN AND BECOMES QUASI-
STATIONARY AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACK ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT IN THE FIRST LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
BRINING INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...AS WELL AS STRENGTHENING THE FRONTAL ZONE AS WINDS TURN
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKES...WHILE BECOMING SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. PERIODS OF
RAIN...THUNDERSTORMS...AND A LARGE TEMPERATURE RANGE FROM THE
40S/50S NORTH TO THE 60S/70S ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IN CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW IS PROGGED ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY...POTENTIALLY LIFTING THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH WARMER TEMPS AND A GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS DO VARY WITH THE DETAILS AT THIS
DISTANCE HOWEVER...MAKING CONFIDENCE IN SMALLER DETAILS FAIRLY LOW
AT THIS POINT.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* STRONG GUSTY WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 18-1900
LOCAL TIME (23-24Z).
ED F
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
ONLY FORECAST CONCERN THIS PERIOD REMAINS WINDS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL STEADILY INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH SPEEDS 15-20KTS AND GUSTS
25-30KTS BY LATE MORNING AND THEN CONTINUING THRU MID AFTERNOON.
DIRECTIONS WILL ALSO TURN A BIT MORE WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON. WIND
SPEEDS/GUSTS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LIKELY
BE DOWN TO 10KTS OR SO BY SUNSET. WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY THIS
EVENING AND MAY DIMINISH WELL UNDER 10KTS FOR A TIME...BUT AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVERNIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
BACK INTO THE 10-14KT RANGE. SPEEDS/GUSTS WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN
AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING WITH MID 20KT GUSTS LIKELY. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OTHER ELEMENTS.
ED F
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* SUNDAY NIGHT...DRY/VFR. SOUTH WINDS.
* MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. EAST WINDS.
* TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST
WINDS.
* THURSDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST WINDS.
* FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
319 AM...STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTH TODAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DISSIPATES BY
THIS EVENING. BUT THIS WEAK LOW WILL LEAVE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE THAT WILL EXTEND WEST TO
ANOTHER LOW OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SLOWLY SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY REACHING THE SOUTHERN END
OF THE LAKE MONDAY...THOUGH SPECIFIC MOVEMENT/LOCATION OF THIS
FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS LOW AND CHANGES CAN BE EXPECTED.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKES REGION THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1056 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
High pressure centered from Oklahoma to Kentucky will provide dry
and brisk southwest flow across Illinois today, as low pressure
passes by to the north across the western Great Lakes. Very dry
air is associated with the chilly Canadian airmass, as dewpoints
linger in the lower 20s across most of the area. The dry air will
warm quickly in the full sunshine, helping to push highs into the
low 60s. Relative humidity levels will dip to below 25 pct in the
gusty afternoon winds, which will create a higher fire danger if
any grass fires develop.
The forecast grids are in good shape and only minor updates were
needed to the hourly temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
The latest surface map has high pressure centered over southern
Kansas and is expected to drift into southern Missouri by later this
afternoon bringing quiet weather to the region. After a rather frosty
start to the day with early morning lows as cold as the middle 20s
in our northwest to the lower 30s southeast, we look for temps to
recover nicely this afternoon with forecast soundings indicating
lower 60s across the west with upper 50s far east. In addition, with
a well mixed boundary layer forecast, especially across the north,
we should see some gusty southwest winds this afternoon not only
helping to push temps a few degrees above guid, but also transporting
some drier air down as well with dew points out to our northwest
late yesterday afternoon in the single digits. HRRR and Rapid
Refresh guidance indicating gusts of 25 to 30 mph across the north
this afternoon with the winds expected to diminish rapidly by early
this evening.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
Active pattern expected for the next several days. Main forecast
challenge will be trying to pin down any significant breaks in the
precipitation next week. However, dry conditions are on tap for the
remainder of the weekend.
Departing surface high pressure over the Tennessee Valley will lead
to rather breezy conditions on Sunday, with some gusts to around 30
mph. Focus then shifts to a shortwave coming up from the desert
Southwest. Have slowed the arrival of the showers/storms a bit
Sunday night and limited them to the post-midnight period, as best
moisture availability will be more toward the Ohio Valley and points
southward. On Monday, despite being in the warmer sector with the
frontal boundary closer to the I-80 corridor, models showing little
in the way of CAPE and a fair amount of CIN during the day over our
area. So, have focused more of the thunder chances across the
southwest third of the CWA.
Developing surface low over the central Plains on Monday is expected
to pull the frontal boundary southward. Evening models have trended
a bit further south with this drifting of the boundary. The GFS
brings it to around I-72 by Tuesday evening and I-70 by Wednesday
morning, while the ECMWF is about 50-75 miles further south of the
GFS at these points. Currently thinking the thunder potential would
be more in the southern half of the CWA, although have kept some
mention across the north as the low level shear may be enough to
compensate.
Future movements of this boundary later in the week will be dictated
by an upper low that will be coming onshore of the northern
California coast late Tuesday. Model differences begin to widen by
Thursday, with the GFS maintaining a more solid closed low tracking
into Minnesota by late week, while the ECMWF favors more of an open
wave solution. Both of these solutions drag the front back north mid
week as another surface low forms over the central Plains. Some
break in the rain is likely Wednesday morning across the north, with
shower/storm chances increasing again as the front lifts north. Have
maintained likely PoP`s for much of the Wednesday night through
Thursday night period. Friday is more of a question mark, as the
latest ECMWF solution maintains decent rain chances across the
north, while the GFS forms more of a stronger mid-latitude cyclone
and quickly sweeps the front through the area Friday morning. Have
maintained the PoP`s for now, given the uncertainty and the distance
into the future.
Temperatures will be a bit tricky with the waffling of the frontal
boundary, but have highs reaching the 70s mid week south of the
front, perhaps as far north as Peoria by Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
VFR conditions expected through tonight. Main concern this period
will be with the gusty southwest winds expected from 15z-22z today
as high pressure shifts south of the region. Forecast soundings
suggest some deep mixing occurring later this morning into the
afternoon hours with a few gusts out of the southwest up to 27kts
possible, especially along the I-74 corridor TAF locations (PIA,
BMI and CMI). Southwest winds are expected to diminish by late
this afternoon with speeds in the 6 to 11 kts this evening.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
634 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...
404 AM CDT
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
BREEZY...DRY AND MILDER WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND THANKS TO DEVELOPMENT OF BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL
DEVELOP EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-
ATLANTIC STATES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH DRY AIR ACROSS THE
REGION...THE FOCUS FOR ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT
WAVE AND SURFACE REFLECTION PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES TODAY
AND TRAIL A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO
OUR NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY. HAVE GENERALLY GONE A LITTLE ABOVE
WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND.
OTHER THAN A PATCH OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
ADVECTION SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN LAKES SYSTEM...SUNNY SKIES ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR NOTED IN UPSTREAM 00Z RAOBS.
WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICTING MIXING TO AROUND 800 MB OR SO...
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 APPEAR REASONABLE
WITH GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 MPH. ANOTHER MINOR MID-
LEVEL WAVE RIPPLES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT...INCREASING
CLOUDS ACROSS NORTH PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT MAINTAINING
FOCUS FOR PRECIP ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS WI/MI. PERSISTENT
WARM ADVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY INTO SUNDAY WILL SUPPORT EVEN
WARMER TEMPS TO ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND...WITH LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROGS INDICATING HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 60S. ONE CAVEAT IS THAT THE
COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH MAY SAG DOWN THE LAKE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND MAY SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
ILLINOIS LAKE SHORE LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING AND BRING COOLER TEMPS
TO THOSE AREAS. GUIDANCE THEN STALLS OUT THE FRONT ALONG THE IL/WI
BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS FOR MOST OF THE CWA
KEEPING OVERNIGHT MINS TEMPS IN THE 40S...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTH
SUBURBS OF CHICAGO WHERE THE COOLER AIR OF THE LAKE WILL PRODUCE
TEMPS IN THE 30S.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
404 AM CDT
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
AN ACTIVE PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA AT THE START OF THE
WEEK AS THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH SAGS INTO IL/IN AND BECOMES QUASI-
STATIONARY AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACK ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT IN THE FIRST LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
BRINING INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...AS WELL AS STRENGTHENING THE FRONTAL ZONE AS WINDS TURN
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKES...WHILE BECOMING SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. PERIODS OF
RAIN...THUNDERSTORMS...AND A LARGE TEMPERATURE RANGE FROM THE
40S/50S NORTH TO THE 60S/70S ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IN CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW IS PROGGED ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY...POTENTIALLY LIFTING THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH WARMER TEMPS AND A GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS DO VARY WITH THE DETAILS AT THIS
DISTANCE HOWEVER...MAKING CONFIDENCE IN SMALLER DETAILS FAIRLY LOW
AT THIS POINT.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* STRONG/GUSTY WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS MID MORNING THRU EARLY
EVENING. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
ONLY FORECAST CONCERN THIS PERIOD REMAINS WINDS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL STEADILY INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH SPEEDS 15-20KTS AND GUSTS
25-30KTS BY LATE MORNING AND THEN CONTINUING THRU MID AFTERNOON.
DIRECTIONS WILL ALSO TURN A BIT MORE WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON. WIND
SPEEDS/GUSTS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LIKELY
BE DOWN TO 10KTS OR SO BY SUNSET. WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY THIS
EVENING AND MAY DIMINISH WELL UNDER 10KTS FOR A TIME...BUT AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVERNIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
BACK INTO THE 10-14KT RANGE. SPEEDS/GUSTS WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN
AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING WITH MID 20KT GUSTS LIKELY. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* MEDIUM FOR WINDS THRU THE PERIOD. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* SUNDAY NIGHT...DRY/VFR. SOUTH WINDS.
* MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. EAST WINDS.
* TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST
WINDS.
* THURSDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST WINDS.
* FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
319 AM...STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTH TODAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DISSIPATES BY
THIS EVENING. BUT THIS WEAK LOW WILL LEAVE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE THAT WILL EXTEND WEST TO
ANOTHER LOW OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SLOWLY SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY REACHING THE SOUTHERN END
OF THE LAKE MONDAY...THOUGH SPECIFIC MOVEMENT/LOCATION OF THIS
FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS LOW AND CHANGES CAN BE EXPECTED.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKES REGION THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
623 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
The latest surface map has high pressure centered over southern
Kansas and is expected to drift into southern Missouri by later this
afternoon bringing quiet weather to the region. After a rather frosty
start to the day with early morning lows as cold as the middle 20s
in our northwest to the lower 30s southeast, we look for temps to
recover nicely this afternoon with forecast soundings indicating
lower 60s across the west with upper 50s far east. In addition, with
a well mixed boundary layer forecast, especially across the north,
we should see some gusty southwest winds this afternoon not only
helping to push temps a few degrees above guid, but also transporting
some drier air down as well with dew points out to our northwest
late yesterday afternoon in the single digits. HRRR and Rapid
Refresh guidance indicating gusts of 25 to 30 mph across the north
this afternoon with the winds expected to diminish rapidly by early
this evening.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
Active pattern expected for the next several days. Main forecast
challenge will be trying to pin down any significant breaks in the
precipitation next week. However, dry conditions are on tap for the
remainder of the weekend.
Departing surface high pressure over the Tennessee Valley will lead
to rather breezy conditions on Sunday, with some gusts to around 30
mph. Focus then shifts to a shortwave coming up from the desert
Southwest. Have slowed the arrival of the showers/storms a bit
Sunday night and limited them to the post-midnight period, as best
moisture availability will be more toward the Ohio Valley and points
southward. On Monday, despite being in the warmer sector with the
frontal boundary closer to the I-80 corridor, models showing little
in the way of CAPE and a fair amount of CIN during the day over our
area. So, have focused more of the thunder chances across the
southwest third of the CWA.
Developing surface low over the central Plains on Monday is expected
to pull the frontal boundary southward. Evening models have trended
a bit further south with this drifting of the boundary. The GFS
brings it to around I-72 by Tuesday evening and I-70 by Wednesday
morning, while the ECMWF is about 50-75 miles further south of the
GFS at these points. Currently thinking the thunder potential would
be more in the southern half of the CWA, although have kept some
mention across the north as the low level shear may be enough to
compensate.
Future movements of this boundary later in the week will be dictated
by an upper low that will be coming onshore of the northern
California coast late Tuesday. Model differences begin to widen by
Thursday, with the GFS maintaining a more solid closed low tracking
into Minnesota by late week, while the ECMWF favors more of an open
wave solution. Both of these solutions drag the front back north mid
week as another surface low forms over the central Plains. Some
break in the rain is likely Wednesday morning across the north, with
shower/storm chances increasing again as the front lifts north. Have
maintained likely PoP`s for much of the Wednesday night through
Thursday night period. Friday is more of a question mark, as the
latest ECMWF solution maintains decent rain chances across the
north, while the GFS forms more of a stronger mid-latitude cyclone
and quickly sweeps the front through the area Friday morning. Have
maintained the PoP`s for now, given the uncertainty and the distance
into the future.
Temperatures will be a bit tricky with the waffling of the frontal
boundary, but have highs reaching the 70s mid week south of the
front, perhaps as far north as Peoria by Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
VFR conditions expected through tonight. Main concern this period
will be with the gusty southwest winds expected from 15z-22z today
as high pressure shifts south of the region. Forecast soundings
suggest some deep mixing occurring later this morning into the
afternoon hours with a few gusts out of the southwest up to 27kts
possible, especially along the I-74 corridor TAF locations (PIA,
BMI and CMI). Southwest winds are expected to diminish by late
this afternoon with speeds in the 6 to 11 kts this evening.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
319 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...
309 PM CDT
THROUGH SUNDAY...
PRECIP WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CWA TODAY CONTINUES TO
EXIT AT THIS TIME WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH/BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE AND FAR
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...ISOLATED LIGHT
RAIN HAS DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF IT. EXPECT THIS TO REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT WITH ANY FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT LIGHT AND BRIEF. TEMPS ALREADY FALLING FAIRLY QUICK
BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WITH LOCATIONS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
ALREADY AROUND 40 DEGREES. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THIS
AFTERNOON WITH 30 DEG WEATHER LIKELY BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
SOUTHWARD MOVING LOW STRATUS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE
EVENING...BUT WITH CLEARER SKIES EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE MIDNIGHT
TIME FRAME.
EXITING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MAKE WAY FOR RISING HEIGHTS ON
SATURDAY WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKING TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN AND WITH SUNNY SKIES...EXPECT TEMPS TO
RISE TO THE UPPER 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND EVEN AROUND 60 IN THE
WESTERN CWA. QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND AS MAIN ACTIVITY STAYS TO THE NORTH. AN EVEN WARMER
DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS RISING WELL INTO THE 60S.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LONG TERM...
235 PM CDT
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SEVERAL PERIODS OF ACTIVE WEATHER...WITH WAVES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE IN THE WORKS FOR THE AREA NEXT WEEK.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGER
SCALE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BEFORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE. OVERALL...THE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO DRIVE THE UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA...SOUTHWARD DOWN THE WEST COAST OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ULTIMATELY...THIS SHOULD SET UP A WEST-SOUTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE ROCKIES AND THE CENTRAL
CONUS...SUPPORTING A BROAD AND A QUASI STATIONARY AREA OF SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND AN WEST TO EAST ORIENTED
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY RIGHT ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY.
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ON MONDAY A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT SOUTHWARD DOWN THE LAKE AND OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS MAY
END UP RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANTLY FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE
DAY OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SET UP IN ITS
WAKE. THIS WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN THE COLDEST CONDITIONS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SETTING UP ALONG THE LAKE SHORE AREAS BY
LATE IN THE DAY.
THE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL OUT
SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATER MONDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT
PARALLELS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SETS UP
OVER THE PLAINS. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL THEN ACT AS THE PRIMARY
FOCUS FOR SEVERAL SURFACE WAVES TO MOVE ALONG AS SEVERAL MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES EJECT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. EACH OF THESE WAVES WILL LIKELY INDUCE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AS A PROLONGED
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO DRIVE WARM AND MOIST AIR OVER
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH.
IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THE FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ENTER THE PICTURE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH YET ANOTHER WAVE OF
STORMS LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL MAINLY RESIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...SOME STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
COULD RESULT IN A SMALL ELEVATED HAIL THREAT WITH SOME OF THESE
STORMS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
WEDNESDAY APPEARS THAT IT COULD END UP BEING MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE
AREA AS WE RESIDE BETWEEN SYSTEMS...SO I LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE...THESE POPS MAY BE ABLE TO BE REMOVED IN LATER FORECASTS.
OTHERWISE THE CHANCE FOR MORE ACTIVE WEATHER LOOK TO INCREASE FOR
THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES LATE IN THE PERIOD
WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF THE MAIN SOUTHWEST UPPER SYSTEM MOVING
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...AND HENCE WHEN THIS ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
END.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE MILD SOUTH AND COOL
NORTH...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO THE PROLONGED ONSHORE
FLOW PATTERN.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* STRONG/GUSTY WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS MID MORNING THRU EARLY
EVENING. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
ONLY FOREAST CONCERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE WINDS. LOW LEVELS WILL
BEGIN TO MIX AFTER SUNRISE AND COULD MIX QUITE DEEP BY EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON WHERE STRONG WINDS WILL EXIST. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
STEADILY INCREASE DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS INTO THE
MID/UPPER 20KT RANGE BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS INTO LOWER 30KT RANGE
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING HOW HIGH GUSTS MAY DEVELOP. WIND
DIRECTIONS WILL SLOWLY TURN MORE WESTERLY MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH
SPEEDS/GUSTS DIMINISHING TOWARD SUNSET. WINDS WILL TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING WITH SPEEDS POSSIBLY DIMINISHING UNDER
10KTS...THEN INCREASING BACK INTO THE 10-12KT RANGE EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM FOR WINDS THRU THE PERIOD. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY...VFR. STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY...MVFR CIGS PROBABLE...IFR CIGS POSSIBLE. MODERATE
NORTHEAST WINDS.
TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. IFR POSSIBLE. EAST/NORTHEAST
WINDS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MVFR CIGS. A PERIOD OR TWO OF SHRA
POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST WINDS.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
319 AM...STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTH TODAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DISSIPATES BY
THIS EVENING. BUT THIS WEAK LOW WILL LEAVE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE THAT WILL EXTEND WEST TO
ANOTHER LOW OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SLOWLY SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY REACHING THE SOUTHERN END
OF THE LAKE MONDAY...THOUGH SPECIFIC MOVEMENT/LOCATION OF THIS
FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS LOW AND CHANGES CAN BE EXPECTED.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKES REGION THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...9 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
250 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
The latest surface map has high pressure centered over southern
Kansas and is expected to drift into southern Missouri by later this
afternoon bringing quiet weather to the region. After a rather frosty
start to the day with early morning lows as cold as the middle 20s
in our northwest to the lower 30s southeast, we look for temps to
recover nicely this afternoon with forecast soundings indicating
lower 60s across the west with upper 50s far east. In addition, with
a well mixed boundary layer forecast, especially across the north,
we should see some gusty southwest winds this afternoon not only
helping to push temps a few degrees above guid, but also transporting
some drier air down as well with dew points out to our northwest
late yesterday afternoon in the single digits. HRRR and Rapid
Refresh guidance indicating gusts of 25 to 30 mph across the north
this afternoon with the winds expected to diminish rapidly by early
this evening.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
Active pattern expected for the next several days. Main forecast
challenge will be trying to pin down any significant breaks in the
precipitation next week. However, dry conditions are on tap for the
remainder of the weekend.
Departing surface high pressure over the Tennessee Valley will lead
to rather breezy conditions on Sunday, with some gusts to around 30
mph. Focus then shifts to a shortwave coming up from the desert
Southwest. Have slowed the arrival of the showers/storms a bit
Sunday night and limited them to the post-midnight period, as best
moisture availability will be more toward the Ohio Valley and points
southward. On Monday, despite being in the warmer sector with the
frontal boundary closer to the I-80 corridor, models showing little
in the way of CAPE and a fair amount of CIN during the day over our
area. So, have focused more of the thunder chances across the
southwest third of the CWA.
Developing surface low over the central Plains on Monday is expected
to pull the frontal boundary southward. Evening models have trended
a bit further south with this drifting of the boundary. The GFS
brings it to around I-72 by Tuesday evening and I-70 by Wednesday
morning, while the ECMWF is about 50-75 miles further south of the
GFS at these points. Currently thinking the thunder potential would
be more in the southern half of the CWA, although have kept some
mention across the north as the low level shear may be enough to
compensate.
Future movements of this boundary later in the week will be dictated
by an upper low that will be coming onshore of the northern
California coast late Tuesday. Model differences begin to widen by
Thursday, with the GFS maintaining a more solid closed low tracking
into Minnesota by late week, while the ECMWF favors more of an open
wave solution. Both of these solutions drag the front back north mid
week as another surface low forms over the central Plains. Some
break in the rain is likely Wednesday morning across the north, with
shower/storm chances increasing again as the front lifts north. Have
maintained likely PoP`s for much of the Wednesday night through
Thursday night period. Friday is more of a question mark, as the
latest ECMWF solution maintains decent rain chances across the
north, while the GFS forms more of a stronger mid-latitude cyclone
and quickly sweeps the front through the area Friday morning. Have
maintained the PoP`s for now, given the uncertainty and the distance
into the future.
Temperatures will be a bit tricky with the waffling of the frontal
boundary, but have highs reaching the 70s mid week south of the
front, perhaps as far north as Peoria by Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
VFR conditions will continue at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Clear
skies are expected through the TAF period as high pressure slides
from southern KS to central KY/TN by tomorrow evening. Winds will
be northwest overnight and then become westerly during the morning
hours, and then southwest tomorrow evening; all in response the
the moving high pressure. Wind speeds will be lighter overnight
but then become a little breezy tomorrow afternoon, and then
decrease again during the evening.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
359 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ELSEWHERE. A PERIOD OF GUSTY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. SUNDAY
LOOKS MOSTLY SUNNY...DRY AND BREEZY AGAIN WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE
60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND HAS
CLEARED OUT SKIES QUICKLY TONIGHT. WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DIE
DOWN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
HAS BEEN SLOW TO RELAX. EXPECT WINDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS THE SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT US THE RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON
EXITS THE EAST COAST.
MAIN STORY FOR SATURDAY WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS WHICH WILL DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS
THE AREA AS A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SLIDES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND A WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WILL FOSTER DEEP MIXING TO AT LEAST 850MB. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO MIX DOWN WIND GUSTS AOA 30 KNOTS FOR A FEW HOURS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOOON/EARLY EVENING. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE EVEN DEEPER MIXING WHICH WOULD NOT ONLY
MIX DOWN STRONGER WINDS...BUT WOULD ALSO RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
BEING TOO LOW. BUMPED HIGH TEMPERATURES ~2 DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES IN THE LONG TERM WITH MEANDERING QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.
SUNDAY WILL BEGIN DRY AND PLEASANT BUT ANOTHER BREEZY DAY WITH
GOOD MIXING AND GRADIENT. TEMPS EXPECTED TO RESPOND INTO THE LOWER
AND MID 60S. CONTINUED TO SIDE TOWARD HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE.
DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH LOW CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SINKING SOUTHWARD MONDAY
NIGHT AND MODELS POINT TO BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS PERIOD WITH
WEAK CONVERGENCE. BOUNDARY TO CONTINUE SAGGING SOUTH TUESDAY BUT
SEVERAL WAVES EXPECTED TO RIDE EAST AS FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH. NO
SKILL IN FORECASTING THE SUBTLE WAVES AND TIMING SO BLENDED POP
INITIALIZATION GENERALLY ACCEPTED. TEMPS REMAIN PROBLEMATIC AS SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL BE SOUTH THROUGH MID WEEK BUT COOLER AIR WILL BE
SHALLOW AS 850MB TROUGH REMAINS NORTH OR RIGHT OVER OUR AREA. FOR
NOW STAYED WITH BLENDED TEMPS WHICH AGAIN ARE CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
STRONGER WAVE MAY APPROACH BY LATE WEEK AND INITIALLY LIFT BOUNDARY
BACK NORTH BRIEFLY BEFORE STRONGER COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH.
CONFIDENCE LOW AT THIS TIME BUT BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HINTING AT THIS
SCENARIO WITH TYPICAL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND EXACT EVOLUTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
KEPT GUSTY WINDS AT KFWA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAS BEEN SLOW TO RELAX ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA.
OTHERWISE...WEATHER WILL BE FAIRLY BENIGN AT BOTH TERMINALS UNTIL
MID DAY SATURDAY WHEN A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS IS EXPECTED. WENT
WITH SUSTAINED 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS THIS TAF
ISSUANCE...BUT HRRR BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE EVEN STRONGER
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...AND WILL INCREASE
WINDS IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES IF NECESSARY.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BENTLEY/LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...BENTLEY
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...BENTLEY
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
150 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S... WITH HIGHS SATURDAY
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
DEEPENING SHRTWV OVER WI/IA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR CWA THIS EVE.
FGEN BAND OF RAIN SPREADING EAST INTO SERN PORTION OF CWA SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVE...PSBLY ENDING AS A SHORT PERIOD OF
-SN. SECOND BAND ACROSS NE IL JUST PRODUCING SPRINKLES THUS FAR BUT
SUPPORTS LEAVING A LOW POP ACROSS NW PORTION OF CWA LATE THIS AFTN.
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS STRENGTHENING SHRTWV SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO
CLEAR OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING TONIGHT AS SFC RIDGE
BUILDS IN BUT EXPECT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL DRYING AND GRADIENT MIXING
TO PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING. STRONG CAA SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL
INTO THE M-U20S ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER SHRTWV
MOVG ACROSS THE GRTLKS IN NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES NORTH WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTG SOUTH. AMPLE
SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH DRY AIRMASS AND RATHER COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD
RESULT IN DEEP MIXING SATURDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTN.
GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS... CONTD TO LEAN TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE TEMPS
WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE L50S EAST AND M50S WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
DRY/MILDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES ON THE BACKSIDE OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE...AND AN ACTIVE FRONTAL ZONES SETS UP NORTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL LAKES. CONTINUED TO FAVOR WARMER GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY`S HIGHS
GIVEN AMPLE SUNSHINE AND DEEPER MIXING IN SOMEWHAT BREEZY SW FLOW.
LOW AMPLITUDE/SHEARED SHORTWAVE TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
LAKES LATER SUNDAY WILL FORCE A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO
THE LOCAL AREA BY MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRAPED
WEST-TO-EAST AND OSCILLATE BETWEEN THE LOWER LAKES AND OH VALLEY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS IT PARALLELS THE NEAR ZONAL (WSW)
FLOW ALOFT. AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN IN THIS PERTURBED FLOW WILL RESULT
IN PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER. THE TEMP/POP
FORECAST FOR ANY ONE PERIOD NEXT WEEK REMAINS OF LOW CONFIDENCE
GIVEN TIMING DIFFERENCES OF UPPER WAVES AND IMPACTS OF CONVECTION.
AS A RESULT CONTINUED TO HOLD CLOSE TO THE LATEST CONSENSUS BLEND
AND THE INHERITED FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
KEPT GUSTY WINDS AT KFWA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAS BEEN SLOW TO RELAX ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA.
OTHERWISE...WEATHER WILL BE FAIRLY BENIGN AT BOTH TERMINALS UNTIL
MID DAY SATURDAY WHEN A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS IS EXPECTED. WENT
WITH SUSTAINED 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS THIS TAF
ISSUANCE...BUT HRRR BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE EVEN STRONGER
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...AND WILL INCREASE
WINDS IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES IF NECESSARY.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BENTLEY
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...BENTLEY
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
640 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2015
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 402 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
Tonight and Monday...the amplified upper level trough will begin to
approach the northern CA coast by 00Z TUE. A broad area of
southwesterly mid and upper level flow will spread northeast across
the plains states.
Through the evening hours deeper moisture will
spread northward across the CWA. Low stratus has already moved north
into the southeast counties and will spread northward through the
night. The NAM, GFS, RAP and members of the WRF models all show weak
isentropic lift developing at the 290K theta level. This may provide
for periods of light drizzle after midnight and into the mid morning
hours of Monday. I suppose if there is enough drizzle some areas
could see a couple hundredths of an inch of QPF from late Tonight
through the mid morning hours of Monday. Overnight lows will only
drop into the lower 50s, given the southerly winds and low-level
moisture advection through the night.
Monday, An elevated mix layer from the high plains will spread
across the CWA. This will cause a large capping inversion to form.
The forecast soundings show the EML will be at 840MB and the
moisture will only be as deep as 900mb, thus even taking the parcel
from the top of the moist layer would not break the cap.
Therefore, we will not see thunderstorms through the day on Monday.
We may not even see showers once the boundary layer mixes deep
enough to end the low-level isentropic lift and the drizzle chances.
Forecast soundings show the stratus holding for most of the day
across the eastern counties of the CWA. The western counties may
become partly cloudy to mostly sunny. There will most likely be a
rather sharp temperature gradient across the CWA with low to mid 80s
across the southwest counties and highs only reaching to near 70
degrees across the extreme eastern counties of the CWA. Southerly
surface winds will increase to 15 to 25 MPH with gusts of 30 to 35
MPH as a lee surface low deepens across western KS.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 402 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
By Monday night, surface low pressure will be centered over central
Kansas with the dryline expected to track as far east as into
central Kansas with the associated warm front extending into
northeast Kansas. While most models show the surface low slowly
lifting northeast Monday night through Tuesday, there is uncertainty
with how long precipitation will stick around. At this time, the
better chances for precipitation should be focused along and north
of the warm front near the Kansas/Nebraska border, and then shift
into far eastern Kansas as the surface low tracks eastward. What the
models do agree with is a very strong cap being in place Monday
night through Tuesday with a decent amount of elevated CAPE.
However, model soundings show such shallow saturation in the low
levels that confidence is low in even elevated thunderstorms being
able to develop, but a few scattered showers may be possible. With
this system being so slow-moving, models show the associated frontal
boundary being draped across the northern part of the forecast area
by Tuesday morning, however there are model discrepancies with the
exact location. Expect strong southerly flow in the warm sector
Monday night along with partly to mostly cloudy skies, so overnight
low temperatures should be mild in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
However, locations north of the boundary should see a sharper
temperature gradient with lows in the low/mid 50s. This distinct
temperature gradient will continue through the day on Tuesday as
models show the boundary still lingering across the CWA. Once again,
the exact location of this gradient is uncertain due to model
discrepancies in the boundary location, however Tuesday high
temperatures may range from the middle 60s to low/mid 80s. This
boundary will finally shift east of the area Tuesday evening, but
models show the potential for some thunderstorms to develop along
this boundary late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening as it
shifts east. However, the models are split on whether or not the cap
will be broken by then, with the NAM showing a strong cap while the
GFS/ECMWF show little to no cap. If the cap is able to weaken enough
to support thunderstorm development, there looks to be upwards of
around 2000 J/kg of CAPE with around 40kts of 0-6km bulk shear, so
some severe thunderstorms would be possible with large hail and
strong winds being the primary threats.
A much stronger system is expected by Wednesday/Wednesday night as
the mid-level trough that will move into the western U.S. on Tuesday
quickly advances into the Rockies by Wednesday and helps to push a
strong low pressure system into the region. Models show a warm front
associated with this next system draped across far southern Kansas
near the Oklahoma border by Wednesday morning, with the boundary
lifting northward into the forecast area Wednesday afternoon and
evening. However, there is uncertainty with how quickly this front
will surge northward and just how far north it will track. 12z model
runs showed the GFS/GEM tracking faster and further north while the
ECMWF/NAM were slower and thus limited on their northern extension.
While these details will need to be worked out in the coming days,
MUCAPE values may be upwards of at least 1500-2500 J/kg, 30-40+ kts
of 0-6km bulk shear, 0-1km helicity values around 150-250 m2/s2, and
limited CIN. As a result, supercellular thunderstorms are expected
with all severe threats possible -- large hail, damaging winds, as
well as some tornadoes possible. The temperature gradient will
continue through Wednesday with highs potentially ranging from mid
60s to mid 70s.
For Thursday, both GFS and ECMWF do indicate best potential for
thunderstorm activity to be in the afternoon into early evening.
However, the GFS does seem to be faster and progression is more
quickly to the North with a more negative tilt to the upper level
trough. This does create some uncertainty for how much and how long
the best conditions will exist for any severe threat over extreme
eastern KS. Any major activity looks to be East of Hwy 75 for the
most part as good moisture, shear and instability are better just
off to the East. During the mid to late afternoon time frame a jet
streak may also help to enhance storms along the cold front which
looks to be making its way through the very eastern portions of the
outlook area at this time. As a result, the focus for storms by early
evening does look to be more over western MO.
After the cold front makes its way through, more zonal flow sets up
with a quick transition into a more amplified ridge for Saturday
into Sunday morning in response to yet another potential trough
digging into the four corners region. This could bring some more
showers and potential thunderstorm activity later during the day
Sunday into evening to our area.
Temperatures for Thursday through the end of the period should be trending
on the pleasant side with highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s with
lows in the lower 40s initially but creeping up to the 50s by later
in the period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 640 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
Expect conditions to slowly deteriorate at the terminals through
the next several hours, though timing of falling through
restrictions is not high. MHK on edge of stratus and could see
some SCT periods in the next hour or two, but satellite showing a
northward surge near ICT, supporting limitations by 02Z. Although
moisture is shallow, guidance and observations support IFR in the
03-06Z period and continuing through at least 13Z. A more SW wind
not far off the surface and diurnal trends should bring
improvements in the 15-20Z period with confidence on this trend
even lower.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Drake/Hennecke
AVIATION...65
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1118 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1118 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE THINNED SOMEWHAT IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
THE EASTERN VALLEYS CONTINUE TO DROP OFF...NOW REPORTING IN THE
MID 40S...WHILE RIDGES ARE IN THE UPPER 50S. HAVE INCLUDED MORE
OF A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT THROUGH THE NIGHT...UNTIL CLOUDS LOWER AND
THICKEN MORE TOWARDS DAWN. WILL HANG ONTO THE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS DAWN...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST RUNS OF
THE HRRR HAVE TRENDED DRIER. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 757 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
THICK HIGH CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. LOOKING UPSTREAM...DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
THINNING...WITH CEILINGS ONLY LOWERING WITH TIME THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THIS WILL AFFECT THE LOW TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER GIVEN THE
STILL VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE AND EASTERN VALLEYS ARE
DROPPING A BIT QUICKER THAN FORECAST...WILL STICK WITH THE
FORECAST LOWS FOR NOW. UPDATES WILL BE FORTHCOMING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
A RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CONUS WITH A TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. WITHIN THIS
FLOW WAS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE THE AXIS OF WHICH IS STARTING TO MOVE
EAST OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AND EASTERN KY WITH A SHORTWAVE
UPSTREAM MOVING FORM THE PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION.
LOCALLY AT PRESENT THE AIR MASS IS VERY DRY WITH DEW POINTS AT
THIS TIME GENERALLY FROM ABOUT 10 IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE
FAR SOUTHEAST TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S IN THE FAR NW. THIS IS
LEADING TO CURRENT RH IN THE 13 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE MOST
PART. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE CONTINUE TO
ENCROACH...AND A SIGN OF INCREASING MOISTURE ON THE WAY IN THE
WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT ON OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING HIGH AND AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY WORKING FROM THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN THIS FLOW RATHER
DRAMATICALLY FROM PRESENT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. PW IS PROGGED TO
CLIMB FROM AROUND 0.25 TO 0.40 INCHES AT PRESENT TO 0.75 TO 1 INCH
RANGE AROUND DAYBREAK. EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD DROP OFF
QUICKLY THIS EVENING DEPENDING ON THICKNESS OF THE CIRRUS AND THE
TIMING OF MID LEVEL DECK ARRIVAL. ATTM...HAVE A FEW POINTS IN THE
BIG SANDY REGION FALLING TO 40 OR THE LOWER 40S.
PW SHOULD THEN FURTHER INCREASE ON MONDAY INTO THE 1 TO 1.25 INCH
RANGE AND THEN REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. TOTAL
TOTALS ARE ALSO PROJECTED TO CREEP UP TOWARD 50 BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO SOME THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH SHOWERS WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT MAINLY ON MONDAY
MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TIMING DETAILS...AREAL EXTENT AND QPF...BUT
WITH A RATHER MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN
PLACE...AND CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON...EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
AND MOS GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARD A BETTER THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
THERE IS MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE PERIOD...BUT
THE ECMWF AND GFS THEN BEGIN TO SHOW MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES AS TIME PROGRESSES INTO THE WEEKEND.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SITUATED WEST/EAST NORTH OF OUR
AREA...WITH FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO BRINGING PLENTIFUL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. A COMBINATION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
SHORTWAVES ALOFT PASSING THROUGH WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE
NATION AND TRACK NE OVER THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL
PULL THE FRONT NORTHWARD INITIALLY...AND THEN SEND A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY OR FRIDAY EVENING.
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING A RETURN OF DRY WEATHER...BUT MODELS
DO NOT AGREE ON THE EXTENT OF COOLING. HAVE USED A COMPROMISE/BLEND
AT THIS POINT FOR TEMPS. MODELS ALSO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN THE
EVENTUAL HANDLING A SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE IN SOUTHERN CA
OR NORTHERN MEXICAN BAJA ON SATURDAY. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT EASTWARD
FASTER THAN THE GFS. HAVE ONLY USED LOW POPS TO FINISH THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE SYSTEM POSSIBLY HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 757 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD ON THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH CEILINGS
WILL BE LOWERING WITH TIME. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL THREATEN
TOWARDS DAWN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE DAY...WITH EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING. CEILINGS WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER TO
MVFR NEAR AND WEST OF I-75...WITH A BIT LESS UNCERTAINTY TO THE
EAST...WHERE LOW END VFR MAY HANG ON. WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO
10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1254 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE ON TODAY AND PASS THROUGH THE MARITIMES TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1250 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPGRADED THE ADVISORY TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY AND NORTHERN
PENOBSCOT COUNTY. A VERY HEAVY BUT NARROW BAND OF SNOW HAS
DEVELOPED IN THESE AREAS, ALONG AND SOUTH OF A EASTON TO
MILLINOCKET LINE BUT NORTHWEST OF HOULTON. A NWS EMPLOYEE UNDER
THIS BAND REPORTED ACCUMULATION OF 5 INCHES ALREADY AND EXPECT
ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THIS BAND EXITS INTO
NEW BRUNSWICK. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE EVENT LOOKS TO BE QUICK
AS SATELLITE IR ENHANCED IMAGERY SHOWED COLDEST CLOUD TOPS RACING
NE AND ALREADY CLEARING NH AND FAR SOUTHERN MAINE.
BANDING SETTING UP OVER NE AROOSTOOK AND N PENOBSCOT COUNTY
W/SNOW UNDER THIS BAND AND RAIN TURNING TO SNOW JUST SOUTH OF
IT(MARS HILL HAD -RA). 10Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRES MOVING
FAST INTO THE GULF MAINE AND A FEW HRS FASTER THAN WHAT THE 00Z
GUIDANCE SHOWED. ANOTHER AREA OF BANDING WAS SHOWING UP ACROSS
DOWNEAST MAINE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. ATTM, LATEST REPORTS INDICATE
AROUND AN INCH OF WET SNOW W/MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION BEING ON
GRASSY SURFACES. ACCUMULATIONS WILL PICK UP LATER THIS MORNING
WITH THE HEAVY BANDS OF SNOW. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE
SNOWFALL TOTAL TO EDGE IT FURTHER N ACROSS AROOSTOOK COUNTY WHERE
6-8 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CARIBOU-
PRESQUE ISLE INTO N PENOBSCOT AND SE AROOSTOOK COUNTY.
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL BE SLOWER TO CHANGE OVER W/RAIN
AND THEN A TRANSITION TO SNOW BY LATE MORNING WITH THE COAST
BEING THE LAST TO CHANGE OVER. A CONVERGENCE ZONE SETTING UP NORTH
OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY W/FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING FROM
1000-700MBS SHOWING UP WELL ON THE 03Z RAP MODEL WHICH WAS
HANDLING THINGS QUITE WELL. BANDING SETTING UP PER THE CBW RADAR
UNDER THIS FORCING AND IS SHOWN BY THE RAP MODEL TO EXPAND INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS THIS MORNING AND THEN EXPAND EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE 06Z NAM12 MODEL WAS IN LINE W/THIS SETUP. SNOWFALL
RATES 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS
UNDER THAT BANDING FROM MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW INTENSIFIES THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE. SNOW RATIOS OF >/= 15:1
IN THOSE BANDS COULD DEFINITELY TIP SNOWFALL TOTALS TO 7 " OR SO.
ATTM, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THERE WILL BE A NARROW SWATH ACROSS
NORTH- CENTRAL MAINE BEFORE WINDING DOWN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
FURTHER S TOWARD THE DOVER-FOXCROFT & LINCOLN REGION, RAIN/SNOW
MIX EARLY WILL HOLD DOWN AMOUNTS BEFORE GOING TO ALL SNOW. THE
BANGOR-BAR HARBOR WILL HANG ON TO RAIN LONGER AS TEMPS REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 30S UNTIL THE LOW PASSES INTO THE BAY OF FUNDY AND THEN
A PERIOD OF SNOW IS EXPECTED W/LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL. NNW WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS W/GUSTS
OVER 30 MPH. SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN AREAS.
THE LOW RAPIDLY MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES W/THE SNOW ENDING BY
AROUND 00Z(8 PM) AND SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS E. VERY COLD
AIR FOR EARLY APRIL POISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
W/CLEARING SKIES AND WINDS DROPPING OFF, TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL BY DAYBREAK EASTER SUNDAY. THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE REGION
IS EXPECTED TO SEE SINGLE NUMBERS W/A FRESH SNOW COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHISKS THROUGH THE CROWN OF MAINE ON
EASTER SUNDAY. UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM/S PASSAGE.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ASSERTS ITS CONTROL OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIE ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR OVER EASTERN MAINE. DISTURBANCES
WILL RIPPLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LIFT IT NORTHWARD INTO
DOWNEAST MAINE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW. VERY COLD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN MAINE WITH A DEEP SNOW PACK STILL IN PLACE. SOME RIDGING
MAY PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK FOR A
WARMING TREND AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT FOR
ALL OF EASTERN MAINE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR RAPIDLY DROPPING TO MVFR THIS MORNING AND THEN IFR.
THERE COULD BE A PERIOD LIFR ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS IN THE HEAVY SNOW AND WIND. RAIN GOING TO SNOW FOR KBGR
AND KBHB. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY BY THE EVENING TO VFR
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND SKIES CLEAR.
SHORT TERM: MVFR OR IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN TAF SITES ON SUNDAY AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. MVFR OR IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KBHB AND
KBGR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
AND FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT W/WINDS INCREASING THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. STAYED
W/GUSTS APCHG 40 KT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5-6 FT
ATTM WILL BUILD TO 7-10 FT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TEH EVENING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. ALONG THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONE,
HEIGHTS WILL BE DOWN TO 3-5 FT W/THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO THE
WIND.
SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED ON SUNDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS 6 TO 9 FEET AND
WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KNOTS. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SOME RISES ON THE RIVERS AND STREAMS W/THE MOST NOTICEABLE RISES
AND ICE MOVEMENT SHOWN ON THE PISCATAQUIS AND PENOBSCOT RIVERS,
BUT STILL WELL W/IN THEIR BANKS. THE RISES WERE DUE TO THE MELTING
THAT TOOK PLACE ON FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR A TIME UNTIL
THE COOLDOWN THIS AFTERNOON. THINKING IS THAT THE PROGRESS WILL BE
SLOWED DOWN AND HALTED BY THE EVENING AS THE COLDER AIR TAKES
PLACE IN EARNEST. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE CONDITIONS
TODAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ002-
005-006.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ001-
003-004-010-011-031-032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/OKULSKI
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/OKULSKI
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1146 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE ON TODAY AND PASS THROUGH THE MARITIMES TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1140 AM UPDATE...TWO BANDS HAVE SET UP ON RADAR; THE HEAVIEST
LIES FROM EAST CENTRAL AROOSTOOK COUNTY DOWN TO NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTY AND THEN WESTWARD INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PENOBSCOT COUNTIES. A WEAKER BAND HAS ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AROOSTOOK COUNTY DOWN INTO NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY OCCURRING WITH
THESE BANDS. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM ABOUT
DANFORTH WEST TO DOVER-FOXCROFT. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE SNOWFALL TOTALS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE BANDING AND THE CURRENT
TEMPERATURES, BUT OVERALL AMOUNTS HAVE NOT CHANGED THAT MUCH. NO
OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE EVENT LOOKS TO BE QUICK
AS SATELLITE IR ENHANCED IMAGERY SHOWED COLDEST CLOUD TOPS RACING
NE AND ALREADY CLEARING NH AND FAR SOUTHERN MAINE.
BANDING SETTING UP OVER NE AROOSTOOK AND N PENOBSCOT COUNTY
W/SNOW UNDER THIS BAND AND RAIN TURNING TO SNOW JUST SOUTH OF
IT(MARS HILL HAD -RA). 10Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRES MOVING
FAST INTO THE GULF MAINE AND A FEW HRS FASTER THAN WHAT THE 00Z
GUIDANCE SHOWED. ANOTHER AREA OF BANDING WAS SHOWING UP ACROSS
DOWNEAST MAINE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. ATTM, LATEST REPORTS INDICATE
AROUND AN INCH OF WET SNOW W/MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION BEING ON
GRASSY SURFACES. ACCUMULATIONS WILL PICK UP LATER THIS MORNING
WITH THE HEAVY BANDS OF SNOW. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE
SNOWFALL TOTAL TO EDGE IT FURTHER N ACROSS AROOSTOOK COUNTY WHERE
6-8 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CARIBOU-
PRESQUE ISLE INTO N PENOBSCOT AND SE AROOSTOOK COUNTY.
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL BE SLOWER TO CHANGE OVER W/RAIN
AND THEN A TRANSITION TO SNOW BY LATE MORNING WITH THE COAST
BEING THE LAST TO CHANGE OVER. A CONVERGENCE ZONE SETTING UP NORTH
OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY W/FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING FROM
1000-700MBS SHOWING UP WELL ON THE 03Z RAP MODEL WHICH WAS
HANDLING THINGS QUITE WELL. BANDING SETTING UP PER THE CBW RADAR
UNDER THIS FORCING AND IS SHOWN BY THE RAP MODEL TO EXPAND INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS THIS MORNING AND THEN EXPAND EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE 06Z NAM12 MODEL WAS IN LINE W/THIS SETUP. SNOWFALL
RATES 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS
UNDER THAT BANDING FROM MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW INTENSIFIES THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE. SNOW RATIOS OF >/= 15:1
IN THOSE BANDS COULD DEFINITELY TIP SNOWFALL TOTALS TO 7 " OR SO.
ATTM, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THERE WILL BE A NARROW SWATH ACROSS
NORTH- CENTRAL MAINE BEFORE WINDING DOWN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
FURTHER S TOWARD THE DOVER-FOXCROFT & LINCOLN REGION, RAIN/SNOW
MIX EARLY WILL HOLD DOWN AMOUNTS BEFORE GOING TO ALL SNOW. THE
BANGOR-BAR HARBOR WILL HANG ON TO RAIN LONGER AS TEMPS REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 30S UNTIL THE LOW PASSES INTO THE BAY OF FUNDY AND THEN
A PERIOD OF SNOW IS EXPECTED W/LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL. NNW WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS W/GUSTS
OVER 30 MPH. SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN AREAS.
THE LOW RAPIDLY MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES W/THE SNOW ENDING BY
AROUND 00Z(8 PM) AND SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS E. VERY COLD
AIR FOR EARLY APRIL POISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
W/CLEARING SKIES AND WINDS DROPPING OFF, TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL BY DAYBREAK EASTER SUNDAY. THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE REGION
IS EXPECTED TO SEE SINGLE NUMBERS W/A FRESH SNOW COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHISKS THROUGH THE CROWN OF MAINE ON
EASTER SUNDAY. UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM/S PASSAGE.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ASSERTS ITS CONTROL OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIE ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR OVER EASTERN MAINE. DISTURBANCES
WILL RIPPLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LIFT IT NORTHWARD INTO
DOWNEAST MAINE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW. VERY COLD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN MAINE WITH A DEEP SNOW PACK STILL IN PLACE. SOME RIDGING
MAY PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK FOR A
WARMING TREND AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT FOR
ALL OF EASTERN MAINE.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR RAPIDLY DROPPING TO MVFR THIS MORNING AND THEN IFR.
THERE COULD BE A PERIOD LIFR ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS IN THE HEAVY SNOW AND WIND. RAIN GOING TO SNOW FOR KBGR
AND KBHB. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY BY THE EVENING TO VFR
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND SKIES CLEAR.
SHORT TERM: MVFR OR IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN TAF SITES ON SUNDAY AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. MVFR OR IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KBHB AND
KBGR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
AND FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT W/WINDS INCREASING THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. STAYED
W/GUSTS APCHG 40 KT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5-6 FT
ATTM WILL BUILD TO 7-10 FT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TEH EVENING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. ALONG THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONE,
HEIGHTS WILL BE DOWN TO 3-5 FT W/THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO THE
WIND.
SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED ON SUNDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS 6 TO 9 FEET AND
WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KNOTS. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SOME RISES ON THE RIVERS AND STREAMS W/THE MOST NOTICEABLE RISES
AND ICE MOVEMENT SHOWN ON THE PISCATAQUIS AND PENOBSCOT RIVERS,
BUT STILL WELL W/IN THEIR BANKS. THE RISES WERE DUE TO THE MELTING
THAT TOOK PLACE ON FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR A TIME UNTIL
THE COOLDOWN THIS AFTERNOON. THINKING IS THAT THE PROGRESS WILL BE
SLOWED DOWN AND HALTED BY THE EVENING AS THE COLDER AIR TAKES
PLACE IN EARNEST. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE CONDITIONS
TODAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MEZ001>006-010-011-031-032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/OKULSKI
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/OKULSKI
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
757 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE ON TODAY AND PASS THROUGH THE MARITIMES TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
755 AM UPDATE...HAVE ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE AS MANY LOCATIONS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AROOSTOOK AND NORTHERN PENOBSCOT COUNTIES
SOUTHWARD ARE STILL HOLDING IN THE MID 30S. ALTHOUGH COLD AIR
WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, EXPECT
THESE AREAS WILL SEE RAIN FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO BEFORE MIXING
OCCURS. HAVE THEREFORE ADDED RAIN INTO THIS MORNING`S FORECAST. NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE EVENT LOOKS TO BE QUICK
AS SATELLITE IR ENHANCED IMAGERY SHOWED COLDEST CLOUD TOPS RACING
NE AND ALREADY CLEARING NH AND FAR SOUTHERN MAINE.
BANDING SETTING UP OVER NE AROOSTOOK AND N PENOBSCOT COUNTY
W/SNOW UNDER THIS BAND AND RAIN TURNING TO SNOW JUST SOUTH OF
IT(MARS HILL HAD -RA). 10Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRES MOVING
FAST INTO THE GULF MAINE AND A FEW HRS FASTER THAN WHAT THE 00Z
GUIDANCE SHOWED. ANOTHER AREA OF BANDING WAS SHOWING UP ACROSS
DOWNEAST MAINE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. ATTM, LATEST REPORTS INDICATE
AROUND AN INCH OF WET SNOW W/MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION BEING ON
GRASSY SURFACES. ACCUMULATIONS WILL PICK UP LATER THIS MORNING
WITH THE HEAVY BANDS OF SNOW. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE
SNOWFALL TOTAL TO EDGE IT FURTHER N ACROSS AROOSTOOK COUNTY WHERE
6-8 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CARIBOU-
PRESQUE ISLE INTO N PENOBSCOT AND SE AROOSTOOK COUNTY.
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL BE SLOWER TO CHANGE OVER W/RAIN
AND THEN A TRANSITION TO SNOW BY LATE MORNING WITH THE COAST
BEING THE LAST TO CHANGE OVER. A CONVERGENCE ZONE SETTING UP NORTH
OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY W/FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING FROM
1000-700MBS SHOWING UP WELL ON THE 03Z RAP MODEL WHICH WAS
HANDLING THINGS QUITE WELL. BANDING SETTING UP PER THE CBW RADAR
UNDER THIS FORCING AND IS SHOWN BY THE RAP MODEL TO EXPAND INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS THIS MORNING AND THEN EXPAND EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE 06Z NAM12 MODEL WAS IN LINE W/THIS SETUP. SNOWFALL
RATES 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS
UNDER THAT BANDING FROM MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW INTENSIFIES THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE. SNOW RATIOS OF >/= 15:1
IN THOSE BANDS COULD DEFINITELY TIP SNOWFALL TOTALS TO 7 " OR SO.
ATTM, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THERE WILL BE A NARROW SWATH ACROSS
NORTH- CENTRAL MAINE BEFORE WINDING DOWN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
FURTHER S TOWARD THE DOVER-FOXCROFT & LINCOLN REGION, RAIN/SNOW
MIX EARLY WILL HOLD DOWN AMOUNTS BEFORE GOING TO ALL SNOW. THE
BANGOR-BAR HARBOR WILL HANG ON TO RAIN LONGER AS TEMPS REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 30S UNTIL THE LOW PASSES INTO THE BAY OF FUNDY AND THEN
A PERIOD OF SNOW IS EXPECTED W/LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL. NNW WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS W/GUSTS
OVER 30 MPH. SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN AREAS.
THE LOW RAPIDLY MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES W/THE SNOW ENDING BY
AROUND 00Z(8 PM) AND SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS E. VERY COLD
AIR FOR EARLY APRIL POISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
W/CLEARING SKIES AND WINDS DROPPING OFF, TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL BY DAYBREAK EASTER SUNDAY. THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE REGION
IS EXPECTED TO SEE SINGLE NUMBERS W/A FRESH SNOW COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHISKS THROUGH THE CROWN OF MAINE ON
EASTER SUNDAY. UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM/S PASSAGE.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ASSERTS ITS CONTROL OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIE ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR OVER EASTERN MAINE. DISTURBANCES
WILL RIPPLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LIFT IT NORTHWARD INTO
DOWNEAST MAINE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW. VERY COLD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN MAINE WITH A DEEP SNOW PACK STILL IN PLACE. SOME RIDGING
MAY PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK FOR A
WARMING TREND AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT FOR
ALL OF EASTERN MAINE.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR RAPIDLY DROPPING TO MVFR THIS MORNING AND THEN IFR.
THERE COULD BE A PERIOD LIFR ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS IN THE HEAVY SNOW AND WIND. RAIN GOING TO SNOW FOR KBGR
AND KBHB. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY BY THE EVENING TO VFR
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND SKIES CLEAR.
SHORT TERM: MVFR OR IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN TAF SITES ON SUNDAY AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. MVFR OR IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KBHB AND
KBGR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
AND FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT W/WINDS INCREASING THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. STAYED
W/GUSTS APCHG 40 KT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5-6 FT
ATTM WILL BUILD TO 7-10 FT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TEH EVENING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. ALONG THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONE,
HEIGHTS WILL BE DOWN TO 3-5 FT W/THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO THE
WIND.
SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED ON SUNDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS 6 TO 9 FEET AND
WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KNOTS. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SOME RISES ON THE RIVERS AND STREAMS W/THE MOST NOTICEABLE RISES
AND ICE MOVEMENT SHOWN ON THE PISCATAQUIS AND PENOBSCOT RIVERS,
BUT STILL WELL W/IN THEIR BANKS. THE RISES WERE DUE TO THE MELTING
THAT TOOK PLACE ON FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR A TIME UNTIL
THE COOLDOWN THIS AFTERNOON. THINKING IS THAT THE PROGRESS WILL BE
SLOWED DOWN AND HALTED BY THE EVENING AS THE COLDER AIR TAKES
PLACE IN EARNEST. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE CONDITIONS
TODAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MEZ001>006-010-011-031-032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/OKULSKI
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/OKULSKI
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
648 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE ON TODAY AND PASS THROUGH THE MARITIMES TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE: ATTM WILL HOLD W/THE ADVISORY AND LET THE
DAYCREW MAKE ANOTHER ASSESSMENT. THE EVENT LOOKS TO BE QUICK AS
SATELLITE IR ENHANCED IMAGERY SHOWED COLDEST CLOUD TOPS RACING NE
AND ALREADY CLEARING NH AND FAR SOUTHERN MAINE.
BANDING SETTING UP OVER NE AROOSTOOK AND N PENOBSCOT COUNTY
W/SNOW UNDER THIS BAND AND RAIN TURNING TO SNOW JUST SOUTH OF
IT(MARS HILL HAD -RA). 10Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRES MOVING
FAST INTO THE GULF MAINE AND A FEW HRS FASTER THAN WHAT THE 00Z
GUIDANCE SHOWED. ANOTHER AREA OF BANDING WAS SHOWING UP ACROSS
DOWNEAST MAINE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. ATTM, LATEST REPORTS INDICATE
AROUND AN INCH OF WET SNOW W/MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION BEING ON
GRASSY SURFACES. ACCUMULATIONS WILL PICK UP LATER THIS MORNING
WITH THE HEAVY BANDS OF SNOW. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE
SNOWFALL TOTAL TO EDGE IT FURTHER N ACROSS AROOSTOOK COUNTY WHERE
6-8 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CARIBOU-
PRESQUE ISLE INTO N PENOBSCOT AND SE AROOSTOOK COUNTY.
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL BE SLOWER TO CHANGE OVER W/RAIN
AND THEN A TRANSITION TO SNOW BY LATE MORNING WITH THE COAST
BEING THE LAST TO CHANGE OVER. A CONVERGENCE ZONE SETTING UP NORTH
OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY W/FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING FROM
1000-700MBS SHOWING UP WELL ON THE 03Z RAP MODEL WHICH WAS
HANDLING THINGS QUITE WELL. BANDING SETTING UP PER THE CBW RADAR
UNDER THIS FORCING AND IS SHOWN BY THE RAP MODEL TO EXPAND INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS THIS MORNING AND THEN EXPAND EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE 06Z NAM12 MODEL WAS IN LINE W/THIS SETUP. SNOWFALL
RATES 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS
UNDER THAT BANDING FROM MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW INTENSIFIES THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE. SNOW RATIOS OF >/= 15:1
IN THOSE BANDS COULD DEFINITELY TIP SNOWFALL TOTALS TO 7 " OR SO.
ATTM, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THERE WILL BE A NARROW SWATH ACROSS
NORTH- CENTRAL MAINE BEFORE WINDING DOWN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
FURTHER S TOWARD THE DOVER-FOXCROFT & LINCOLN REGION, RAIN/SNOW
MIX EARLY WILL HOLD DOWN AMOUNTS BEFORE GOING TO ALL SNOW. THE
BANGOR-BAR HARBOR WILL HANG ON TO RAIN LONGER AS TEMPS REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 30S UNTIL THE LOW PASSES INTO THE BAY OF FUNDY AND THEN
A PERIOD OF SNOW IS EXPECTED W/LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL. NNW WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS W/GUSTS
OVER 30 MPH. SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN AREAS.
THE LOW RAPIDLY MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES W/THE SNOW ENDING BY
AROUND 00Z(8 PM) AND SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS E. VERY COLD
AIR FOR EARLY APRIL POISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
W/CLEARING SKIES AND WINDS DROPPING OFF, TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL BY DAYBREAK EASTER SUNDAY. THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE REGION
IS EXPECTED TO SEE SINGLE NUMBERS W/A FRESH SNOW COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHISKS THROUGH THE CROWN OF MAINE ON
EASTER SUNDAY. UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM/S PASSAGE.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ASSERTS ITS CONTROL OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIE ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR OVER EASTERN MAINE. DISTURBANCES
WILL RIPPLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LIFT IT NORTHWARD INTO
DOWNEAST MAINE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW. VERY COLD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN MAINE WITH A DEEP SNOW PACK STILL IN PLACE. SOME RIDGING
MAY PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK FOR A
WARMING TREND AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT FOR
ALL OF EASTERN MAINE. &&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR RAPIDLY DROPPING TO MVFR THIS MORNING AND THEN IFR.
THERE COULD BE A PERIOD LIFR ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS IN THE HEAVY SNOW AND WIND. RAIN GOING TO SNOW FOR KBGR
AND KBHB. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY BY THE EVENING TO VFR
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND SKIES CLEAR.
SHORT TERM: MVFR OR IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN TAF SITES ON SUNDAY AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. MVFR OR IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KBHB AND
KBGR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
AND FOG.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
SHORT TERM:
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT W/WINDS INCREASING THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. STAYED
W/GUSTS APCHG 40 KT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5-6 FT
ATTM WILL BUILD TO 7-10 FT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TEH EVENING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. ALONG THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONE,
HEIGHTS WILL BE DOWN TO 3-5 FT W/THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO THE
WIND.
SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED ON SUNDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS 6 TO 9 FEET AND
WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KNOTS. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SOME RISES ON THE RIVERS AND STREAMS W/THE MOST NOTICEABLE RISES
AND ICE MOVEMENT SHOWN ON THE PISCATAQUIS AND PENOBSCOT RIVERS,
BUT STILL WELL W/IN THEIR BANKS. THE RISES WERE DUE TO THE MELTING
THAT TOOK PLACE ON FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR A TIME UNTIL
THE COOLDOWN THIS AFTERNOON. THINKING IS THAT THE PROGRESS WILL BE
SLOWED DOWN AND HALTED BY THE EVENING AS THE COLDER AIR TAKES
PLACE IN EARNEST. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE CONDITIONS
TODAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MEZ001>006-010-011-031-032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HEWITT/OKULSKI
MARINE...HEWITT/OKULSKI
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
414 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE ON TODAY AND PASS THROUGH THE MARITIMES TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR SURE THIS TERM AND THIS SECTION WILL BE
SOMEWHAT LENGTHY. FIRST THINGS RIGHT OFF THE BAT WAS TO STAY
W/THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR CONTINUITY
PURPOSES AND MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADES IF WARRANTED W/THE 630
AM UPDATE.
06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRES INTENSIFYING OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MOVING NE. REGIONAL RADAR HAD LARGE AREA OF PRECIP
EXTENDING FROM NYS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT SNOW HAS
BROKEN OUT ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE(FVE 8SM -SN) AS TEMPERATURES
WERE FALLING BACK TO THE LOWER 30S DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION RANGED FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 30S W/LOWER 40S TO THE SW AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK
AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS W/THE EVAPORATIVE COOLING. THE NORTHERN
AREAS WILL SEE PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SNOW. FURTHER S INTO CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST AREAS, THE COOLING WILL BE SLOWER W/RAIN AND THEN A
TRANSITION TO SNOW BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH THE COAST BEING THE
LAST TO CHANGE OVER. A CONVERGENCE ZONE SETTING UP NORTH OF THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY W/FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING FROM
1000-700MBS SHOWING UP WELL ON THE 03Z RAP MODEL WHICH WAS
HANDLING THINGS QUITE WELL. BANDING SETTING UP PER THE CBW RADAR
UNDER THIS FORCING AND IS SHOWN BY THE RAP MODEL TO EXPAND INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS THIS MORNING AND THEN EXPAND EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE 06Z NAM12 MODEL WAS IN LINE W/THIS SETUP. SNOWFALL
RATES 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS
UNDER THAT BANDING FROM MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW INTENSIFIES THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE. SNOW RATIOS OF >/= 15:1
IN THOSE BANDS COULD DEFINITELY TIP SNOWFALL TOTALS TO 7 ". ATTM,
IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THERE WILL BE A NARROW SWATH ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL MAINE BEFORE WINDING DOWN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER S
TOWARD THE DOVER-FOXCROFT & LINCOLN REGION, RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY
WILL HOLD DOWN AMOUNTS BEFORE GOING TO ALL SNOW. THE BANGOR-BAR
HARBOR WILL HANG ON TO RAIN LONGER AS TEMPS REMAIN IN THE UPPER
30S UNTIL THE LOW PASSES INTO THE BAY OF FUNDY AND THEN A PERIOD
OF SNOW IS EXPECTED W/LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.
NNW WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS W/GUSTS OVER 30
MPH. SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY NORTHERN
AREAS.
THE LOW RAPIDLY MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES W/THE SNOW ENDING BY
AROUND 00Z(8 PM) AND SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS E. VERY COLD
AIR FOR EARLY APRIL POISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
W/CLEARING SKIES AND WINDS DROPPING OFF, TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL BY DAYBREAK EASTER SUNDAY. THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE REGION
IS EXPECTED TO SEE SINGLE NUMBERS W/A FRESH SNOW COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHISKS THROUGH THE CROWN OF MAINE ON
EASTER SUNDAY. UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM/S PASSAGE.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ASSERTS ITS CONTROL OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIE ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR OVER EASTERN MAINE. DISTURBANCES
WILL RIPPLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LIFT IT NORTHWARD INTO
DOWNEAST MAINE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW. VERY COLD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN MAINE WITH A DEEP SNOW PACK STILL IN PLACE. SOME RIDGING
MAY PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK FOR A
WARMING TREND AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT FOR
ALL OF EASTERN MAINE. &&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR RAPIDLY DROPPING TO MVFR THIS MORNING AND THEN IFR.
THERE COULD BE A PERIOD LIFR ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS IN THE HEAVY SNOW AND WIND. RAIN GOING TO SNOW FOR KBGR
AND KBHB. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY BY THE EVENING TO VFR
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND SKIES CLEAR.
SHORT TERM: MVFR OR IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN TAF SITES ON SUNDAY AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. MVFR OR IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KBHB AND
KBGR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
AND FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT W/WINDS INCREASING THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. STAYED
W/GUSTS APCHG 40 KT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5-6 FT
ATTM WILL BUILD TO 7-10 FT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TEH EVENING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. ALONG THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONE,
HEIGHTS WILL BE DOWN TO 3-5 FT W/THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO THE
WIND.
SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED ON SUNDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS 6 TO 9 FEET AND
WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KNOTS. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SOME RISES ON THE RIVERS AND STREAMS W/THE MOST NOTICEABLE RISES
AND ICE MOVEMENT SHOWN ON THE PISCATAQUIS AND PENOBSCOT RIVERS,
BUT STILL WELL W/IN THEIR BANKS. THE RISES WERE DUE TO THE MELTING
THAT TOOK PLACE ON FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR A TIME UNTIL
THE COOLDOWN THIS AFTERNOON. THINKING IS THAT THE PROGRESS WILL BE
SLOWED DOWN AND HALTED BY THE EVENING AS THE COLDER AIR TAKES
PLACE IN EARNEST. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE CONDITIONS
TODAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MEZ001>006-010-011-031-032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HEWITT/OKULSKI
MARINE...HEWITT/OKULSKI
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1039 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1039 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
MID LEVEL RETURNS HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS PER
LATEST APX 88D BASE REF LOOP...AND CERTAINLY UPSTREAM RADARS ARE
SHOWING A STEADY INCREASE IN RETURNS AS WELL. NO SIGN OF ANY
PRECIP ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND YET PER REGION SURFACE OBS...
BUT STILL EXPECT THIS WILL CHANGE AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LATEST NAM IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH WITH THE DEVELOPING
BAND OF PRECIP...WITH A BIT LESS QPF. LATEST HRRR DOESN`T EVEN
PRODUCE ANY QPF UNTIL THE BAND HAS REACHED THE STRAITS AND ERN UPR
MICHIGAN TOWARD DAYBREAK. RADAR TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST THAT WE WILL
SEE AT LEAST SOME PRECIP LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NRN TWO-THIRDS
OF OUR CWA ONCE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER LIFT WITHIN THE DGZ
ARRIVE. SEE NO COMPELLING REASON TO STRAY FROM DEVELOPING
CATEGORICAL POPS OVERNIGHT FOR MUCH OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN....WITH
ONLY AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW EXPECTED. COULD STILL SEE SOME RAIN
MIX IN ACROSS OUR FAR SRN COUNTIES.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN TONIGHT.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: MID/UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS MAINTENANCE OF CONFLUENT FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LAKES....FORCING A STALLED SURFACE RESPONSE WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
LINED UP FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
EARLY FGEN DRIVEN SNOW BAND A THING OF THE PAST AS LOW LEVEL JET
VEERED AND WEAKENED. STILL PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-
55. FURTHER NORTH...A RATHER PLEASANT EASTER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AND LIGHT WINDS...ALTHOUGH GOTTA ADMIT TEMPERATURES ARE A TOUCH ON
THE COOL SIDE WITH READINGS MOSTLY IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. SOME
CHANGES STARTING TO OCCUR JUST UPSTREAM...WITH NOTED SLOW HEIGHT
RISES BACK ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOW LEVEL JET WILL
RAMP UP ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE...HELPING DRIVE CURRENT
STATIONARY H8 FRONT NORTHWARD AND SPAWNING ANOTHER ROUND OF FGEN
DRIVEN PRECIP INTO OUR AREA.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: PLENTY! MAIN FOCUS CENTERED ON
EVOLUTION OF EXPECTED EXPANDING PRECIP BAND (INCLUDING TIMING AND
TYPE THIS PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE) LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND HEADLINE CONSIDERATION WILL ALSO NEED
ADDRESSING.
DETAILS: RATHER QUIET CONDITIONS TO START THIS EVENING. CHALLENGES
RAMP-UP CONSIDERABLY HEADING THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
SAID LOW LEVEL JET RESPONSE AND FGEN INTENSIFY. NOT A TON OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WITH ANALYZED PWAT VALUES LESS THAN HALF AN
INCH EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SHOULD IMPROVE
SOME WITH INTENSIFYING SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SOUTH SIDE OF FRONTAL
AXIS...WITH CORRIDOR OF HALF INCH PWATS PUSHING INTO THE LAKES
OVERNIGHT. INCREASED AND FOCUSED CONVERGENCE ALONG SLOWLY NORTHWARD
BOWING H8 FRONT SHOULD ENTICE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP ALONG AND NORTH
OF ITS AXIS...WHICH SHOULD EXPAND/INTENSIFY/AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATER TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. CROSS SECTIONS CONCUR...WITH EXCELLENT SLOPED FGEN SIGNAL AND
FORCED WARM SIDE AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE. EVEN SOME HINTS OF REDUCED
INSTABILITY ALOFT (EPV VALUES JUST STRADDLING ZERO)...PLACED NICELY
WITHIN AREA OF MAX OMEGA AND GOOD DEEP LAYER SATURATION. FORCING
LOOKS TO REACH MATURITY IN THE M-72/M-68 CORRIDOR DURING THE EARLY
MORNING. BAND(S) SHOULD REMAIN JUST TRANSIENT ENOUGH TO PREVENT
REALLY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS...BUT COULD EASILY SEE SOME AREAS
APPROACH A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH OF LIQUID BY MORNING.
AFTER AN INITIAL RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE THIS EVENING...INTENSIFYING
DYNAMICS/COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN A QUICK CHANGEOVER
TO SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF M-55. WARM NOSE SOUTH OF H8 FRONT PUNCHES
IN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF M-72...JUST AS HEAVIEST PRECIP IS
ENDING. WILL CONTINUE THEME OF RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE AS THIS
OCCURS...INTRODUCING SOME FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL WITH STILL COLD
LOW LEVELS. NOT EXPECTING THIS TO BE A BIG DEAL AS HIGHEST PRECIP
RATES WILL HAVE ENDED BY THE TIME THIS OCCURS.
SNOW TOTALS: LOOKS LIKE A QUICK HITTING INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL LOWER UP TO THE TIP OF THE MITT. LESS AMOUNTS SOUTH
(RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE) AND EASTERN UPPER (LATER START/WEAKER DYNAMICS).
NOT SEEING THE NEED FOR A HEADLINE...BUT WILL KICK AROUND THE IDEA
OF A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO RAISE CONCERN FOR SOME SNOW-
COVERED AND SLUSHY ROADS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS TIME PERIOD IS PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
TIMING AS NORTHERN MICHIGAN REMAINS IN A ZONAL FLOW WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. 295K ISENTROPIC SURFACE
SHOWS GULF MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD THROUGH 700MB AS FAR
NORTH AS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE INDICATED PWATS
THROUGHOUT THE TIME PERIOD OF BETWEEN 0.5 AND 0.75 INCHES. WITH THE
AMPLE MOISTURE AND ADDED LIFT FROM THE DIVERGENT QUADRANT OF THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET
OVERHEAD...PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL EXISTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A MAJOR
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AGREE WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING RAIN
POSSIBLE. EASTERLY WINDS TRANSPORTING COLDER AIR WRAPPING AROUND A
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA MAY COLLIDE WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED GULF MOISTURE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS (700MB AND
BELOW)...WITH THE TOP OF THE SATURATED LAYER FORECAST TO ONLY REACH
TO THE -6C ISOTHERM. AS TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING TUESDAY
NIGHT THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY DRIZZLE/RAIN FREEZING ON THE
SIDEWALK/ROAD SURFACES WOULD BECOME A PROBLEM THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. WILL LEAVE THIS OUT OF THE
FORECAST UNTIL CONFIDENCE GETS HIGHER WITH CONSISTENT/FUTURE MODEL
TRENDS. ANY OTHER PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD WILL FALL AS
SNOW OR A SNOW/RAIN MIX DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS UNTIL IT CHANGES OVER TO ALL RAIN WITH DIURNAL HEATING. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL BE LIGHT...IF ANY...AND WILL MELT QUICKLY
ON ROAD SURFACES AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE PERSISTENTLY OUT OF
THE EAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAVING THE HIGHEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25
MPH. HIGHS THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD WILL BE MID 30S TO LOW 40S WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM...BUT
SOME LATE WEEK/WEEKEND PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE IN THE CARDS. 500
MB TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF PAC NW COAST WILL BE MOVING INLAND WED/THU.
THE STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THIS IS THE MAIN CAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY...AS
THIS WILL BE PROPAGATING THE LOW OUT OF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. PRECIP WILL START AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW...AS
THERE WILL BE SOME 500 MB SHORTWAVE IMPULSES PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...ALONG WITH A WARM FRONT SETTING UP THROUGH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN ATTENDANT TO THE APPROACHING LOW. THINGS WILL
CLEAR OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
VFR CONDITION THIS EVENING WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS A BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF M-72 AND
PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO THE TIP OF THE MITT AND THE STRAITS AREA
ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MIX WITH THE
SNOW ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT AROUND PLN AND APN ON MONDAY...AND
WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO ALL RAIN AROUND TVC AS THE WARM FRONT SURGES
NORTHWARD ON MONDAY. NE WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS THRU THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD FOR MOST TAF SITES...BUT WILL SHIFT TO THE SE
AROUND MBL ON MONDAY SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
EAST FLOW WILL INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. SAME STORY HEADING THROUGH SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT HOVERS ACROSS THE AREA. NEXT ROUND OF MARINE
HEADLINES LOOKS TO OCCUR ON TUESDAY AS NORTHEAST WINDS STRENGTHEN
WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...TJL
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MSB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
A STARK WEATHER AND TEMPERATURE CONTRAST WILL EXIST ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN IN A WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION.
EXPECT SPRINGLIKE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96... BUT CHILLY TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN AND WET SNOW TO THE NORTH.
MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK WILL BE WET AND UNSETTLED AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING NORTH OF I-96... FOR WET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
AND POSSIBLY LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS IS A LOW TO MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE FORECAST... BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH IMPACT. THE
AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW AND THE MAX AMOUNTS IS STILL UNCLEAR.
TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM CNTRL MN TO SE LWR MI AND A JET
STREAK WILL FUEL A POTENTIALLY INTENSE BUT NARROW BAND OF FGEN SNOW
TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL LWR MI INTO THE THUMB REGION. WHILE HIGHER
RES MODEL QPF PROGS ARE CLEARLY RESPONDING TO THE STRONG FGEN
RESPONSE... THEY ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT/AMOUNT OF THE
HIGHER QPF.
THE CURRENT CONSENSUS IS FOR THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW TO BE FROM
LUDINGTON TO REED CITY TO MT PLEASANT... BUT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
THIS TO BE DISPLACED A BIT FARTHER NORTH OR SOUTH OF THIS LINE. THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR WHICH NOW GO OUT TO 09Z ARE SUGGESTING A
SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION.
MODELS SHOW PRECIPITATION LINGERING ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA NORTH
OF I-96 MUCH OF SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH GRADUAL WARMING OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY RAIN FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. A MIX MAY DEVELOP AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO DIMINISH MONDAY BUT THEN RAMP UP AGAIN
ON MONDAY NIGHT. P TYPE SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA BUT A
WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AGAIN NORTH OF A
BIG RAPIDS TO MT PLEASANT LINE.
MEANWHILE SOUTH OF I-96 ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY... EXPECT MILD SPRING
LIKE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH LIMITED PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL. THE FRONT SHOULD SAG A BIT SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
A WET PATTERN LOOKS TO BE SETTING UP IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MUCH OF THE TIME A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL
BE LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF AIR WILL BE INTERACTING WITH THE FRONT...WITH GULF ORIGINS.
A SURFACE LOW WILL PIVOT ALONG THE FRONT IN THE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. MAINLY RAIN IS
FORECAST...BUT A MIX OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL LOWER WHERE A DRIER...COOLER FEED OF AIR WILL BE PULLED IN
ON NORTHEAST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY MAY BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY AS WE AWAIT AN UPPER LOW
MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. INTO THE PLAINS. THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY THE LOW WILL BE PIVOTING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN EXPECTED. RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD
COULD EXCEED AN INCH ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TOWARDS I-94.
OVERALL A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER...VERY SPRING LIKE. WE
WILL BE MONITORING FORECAST TRENDS IN REGARD TO HEAVY RAIN AND THE
CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO THIS EVENING UNDER MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 12-25 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH ABOUT
23Z. WINDS WILL TAIL OFF TO BELOW 9 KNOTS AFTER 01Z.
MID CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN THIS EVENING WITH BASES AT OR ABOVE
10000FT. PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO BREAK OUT AFTER 06Z TONIGHT
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 96 TAF SITES WITH A RAIN AND SNOW MIX. CLOUD
BASES AT THESE SITES...KGRR...KMKG AND KLAN WILL DIP INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY AS WILL THE VISIBILITIES WITH TIME.
THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES ALONG INTERSTATE 94 SHOULD STAY VFR WITH
THE PRECIPITATION MISSING THEM TO THE NORTH.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EARLY FOR MUCH OF
THE NEARSHORE AREA AS WINDS/WAVES SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR
EAST WINDS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF MUSKEGON WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH
OF MKG AS A FRONTAL ZONE SHARPENS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW. A FAIRLY NARROW BAND OF HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS IS POSSIBLE UP TO
AROUND HALF AN INCH. THIS ONE EVENT WILL NOT HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON
AREA RIVERS...BUT THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK IS SHAPING UP TO BE
A WET ONE. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE
NEXT WEEK. RIVER STREAMFLOW PERCENTILE IS CURRENTLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL...BUT SOME RIVERS MAY MAKE A RUN AT BANKFULL OVER THE
NEXT WEEK. WPC 7-DAY QPF INDICATES THE KALAMAZOO BASIN AND
HEADWATERS OF THE GRAND COULD SEE IN EXCESS OF AN INCH AND A HALF.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR
MIZ037>040-043>046-051-052.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...MEADE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
327 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
RADAR RETURNS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN LOWER MI INTO THE SAGINAW
VALLEY/THUMB REGION ARE ALONG THE NOSE OF A MID LEVEL THETA E PLUME
AND WITHIN A REGION OF STRONG 280-290K ISENTROPIC ASCENT. WHILE
THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL REPORTS OF SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MI...THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR HAS PROVEN FAIRLY EFFICIENT IN KEEPING
CONDITIONS PRECIP FREE ACROSS MOST OF SE MI. THE INCREASING TRENDS
NOTED ON THE RECENT RADAR/SATELLITE LOOPS DO HOWEVER SUGGEST A
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO OCCUR PRIOR TO THE
FORCING EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE THUMB REGION SHORTLY AFTER
21Z. THIS WILL MAINLY BE A CONCERN FOR THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. AFTER A PEAK IN WIND
SPEEDS EARLY THIS EVENING...CLEARING SKIES WILL SUPPORT RAPID
DECOUPLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THUS ALLOWING WINDS TO DROP OFF. A
TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INCREASING CLOUDS WILL SUPPRESS THE DEGREE OF
COOLING OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHERE MIN TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM... OVERNIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY
MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AT A FASTER PACE THAN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
COMPLEX OVER QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND TRANSLATES EASTWARD. LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE UNBALANCED
INCREASING HEIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT. THIS POCKET OF MORE ENERGETIC FLOW
WILL IMPINGE INTO THE PRE-EXISTING...BUT RATHER FLAT...THETA-E
GRADIENT IN THE 925-600MB LAYER DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN.
INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT FORCED BY THE LOW-LEVEL JET RESPONSE
WILL FORCE SATURATION TO COMMENCE WITHIN THE LOOSELY DEFINED FRONTAL
ZONE. THE SATURATION WILL QUICKLY CATALYZE THE THETA-E FIELD INTO A
MUCH BETTER DEFINED STRUCTURE. THE RAPID MASS ADJUSTMENT WILL FORCE
A NARROW...YET ROBUST...AGEOSTROPHIC SECONDARY VERTICAL CIRCULATION
WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE.
THE NWP SUITE PRESENTS THIS DEVELOPING FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED BAND
OF PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE SHARPENING BAROCLINIC ZONE. HOWEVER...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE AN ABNORMALLY LARGE AMOUNT OF SOLUTION
VARIANCE WITH THE PLACEMENT AND EVOLUTION OF THIS FRONTOGENETIC
STRUCTURE.
AVAILABLE ABSOLUTE MOISTURE WILL DICTATE THE PLACEMENT OF THE
INITIAL SATURATION AND ACCOMPANYING STRONG FRONTOGENTIC RESPONSE.
THE REPRESENTATION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS THE SOURCE OF THE NWP
SOLUTION DIVERGENCE. THE 04.12Z NAM IS THE MOST BULLISH...WHICH
TRANSLATES TO A FARTHER SOUTH MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE DEPICTION.
HOWEVER...THE NAM DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY 8F TOO MOIST IN THE
SURFACE LAYER ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE CMC FAMILY...
GFS...AND LATEST ECMWF ARE A BIT FARTHER NORTH AND LESS AMPLIFIED -
BUT STILL APPEAR TO BE TOO MOIST COMPARED TO RECENT OBSERVATIONS.
THE RAP AND HRRR SEQUENCE HAS BEEN STEADY WITH AN EVEN FARTHER NORTH
DEPICTION AND IS IN BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE CURRENT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE OBSERVATIONS AND GOES SOUNDER PWAT ESTIMATES. REGARDLESS OF
SOLUTION DEPICTION...SATURATION OCCURS IN THE SUB-FREEZING PORTION
OF BOUNDARY STRUCTURE. THEREFORE...EXPECTING SNOW TO DOMINATE THE
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN MIXTURE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES WHERE LIGHTER PRECIPITATION...REDUCED WET
BULBING...AND PARTIAL SATURATION ALLOW FOR SOME LIQUID DEVELOP.
THE FRONTAL ZONE IS PARALLEL WITH THE MEAN MID-LEVEL FLOW...SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH LATERAL MOVEMENT WITH THE FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND
ONCE IT INITIATES. CONSEQUENTLY...APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATING SNOW
BECOMES A CONCERN. THE REGION OF GREATEST CONFIDENCE FOR MEANINGFUL
ACCUMULATIONS IS ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB REGIONS /WHERE
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED/. FARTHER SOUTH...
DURATION OF SNOWFALL WILL BE LIMITED AS THE FRONTAL ZONE CONTRACTS
DUE TO THE LACK OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE. GIVEN THE PRESENTED FORCING IN
THE CONTEXT OF MIXING RATIOS AROUND 2-3 G/KG AND ROUGHLY AN 8 HOUR
DURATION...THE BEST ESTIMATE FOR ACCUMULATIONS IS IN THE 2-3+ INCH
RANGE ACROSS THE ADVISORY.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MODERATE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...THUS
CONVERTING THE SNOW TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING...AS THE ENTIRE FRONTAL ZONE ALSO SLOWLY MIGRATES NORTH AND
WEAKENS. EXPECTING HIGHS TO RANGE FROM AROUND 60F NEAR THE OHIO
BORDER TO AROUND 40F ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB REGIONS.
THE BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. SO
WILL HAVE TO MAINTAIN POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL SURGE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM - PWATS SURGE TO NEAR 1.2 INCHES. THE
COLUMN IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS IS WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ALL RAIN. THE EMERGENCE OF THE STRONGER SYSTEM COLLAPSES THE NEAR
SURFACE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING SOME COLDER AIR TO FILTER IN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT ANY COLDER
SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF ICING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW IN THE OVERALL DEPICTION...SO WILL
RESERVE JUDGMENT AT THE MOMENT.
THE EXTENDED FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE
AN ACTIVE ONE AS A BOUNDARY SETS UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS ALLOWS FOR CONTINUAL SHORTWAVES TO RIDE ALONG THE FLOW
BRINGING CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO THE AREA. CURRENTLY...MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN FOR A SHORT TIME. LATEST
MODELS HAVE COME IN SLIGHTLY WARMER ACROSS THE CWA IN TERMS OF
OVERALL TEMPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA.
PRECIPITATION TYPE STILL NEEDS TO BE TAKEN IN ACCOUNT BUT
OVERALL... RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN PTYPE ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA. SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB AREAS WILL SEE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
MIXED PTYPES.
&&
.MARINE...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS /GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS/ ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT IS DRIVEN SOUTH ACROSS
LAKE HURON. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS LOWER MI ON
SUNDAY...LEAVING A GENERAL WEAK GRADIENT FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
NORTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS LAKE HURON...GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING TUES INTO WED.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1252 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
A REGION OF ELEVATED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ADVANCING INTO
SE MI BY THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD...PRECEDING A FAST MOVING
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE 18Z TO 21Z TIME FRAME...THE
PROBABILITIES OF THESE SHOWERS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS LOOKS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. THE EXCEPTION IS MBS WHERE FORCING WILL BE A
LITTLE STRONGER AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE A LITTLE MORE PLENTIFUL. LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SFC TROUGH
/FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS AROUND 21Z/. THIS WILL OCCUR
AS MIXING DEPTHS GROW DURING THE AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING W-SW WIND GUSTS
UP TO OR IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS AT TIMES. ANY AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE A BRIEF /LESS THAN 20 MINUTE/
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY AND STRONGER WIND GUSTS.
FOR DTW...WINDS WILL BACK SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS SPEEDS INCREASE. WINDS WILL PEEK AROUND 21Z ALONG JUST
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE ONSET OF NIGHTTIME COOLING THIS
EVENING WILL LEAD TO A RAPID DECREASE IN SPEEDS BETWEEN 23Z AND 00Z.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW IN WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING CROSS WIND THRESHOLDS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR MIZ047>049-
053>055.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SC
LONG TERM....MANN/SS
MARINE.......MANN
AVIATION.....SC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
646 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE PCPN A LITTLE BIT AS DRY AIR FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA. PCPN WILL START AS
RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE MIXING
WITH AND THEN CHANGING TO ALL SNOW. REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK
HIT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 10
AM MONDAY. AREAS IN THE ADVISORY WILL LIKELY SEE 2 TO 4
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING TO
THE EAST INTO SRN MN. SOUTH OF THE FRONT THERE IS VERY STRONG WAA
IN THE MID LEVELS...ACROSS A DEEP LAYER...WHICH IS PRODUCING A
STRENGTHENING BAND OF F-GEN JUST SOUTH OF THE TWIN CITIES. AS
EVIDENT ON THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS. CLOUD COVER AND RADAR ECHOES
ARE STARTING TO INTENSIFY WITH THIS AREA OF ENHANCEMENT AND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THOUGH THE EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF THIS
RELATIVELY STRONG MESOSCALE FORCING AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET AND CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONG LIFT AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT WILL OCCUR
IN A FAVORABLE REGION OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WHICH WILL
ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION RATES TO INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL COOL THE COLUMN AND CHANGE ANY RAIN OVER TO
ALL SNOW RELATIVELY QUICKLY. SO...WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR
PERIODIC HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES DURING THIS TIME...WITH A QUICK 2 TO
4 INCHES OVER THE ADVISORY AREA.
A BRIEF BREAK IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SRN
COUNTIES AGAIN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME SITUATED BETWEEN VERY DRY CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO...AND A WARM FRONT WITH
INCREASING WARMTH AND MOISTURE OVER SRN MN THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
ALTHOUGH LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A THERMAL
BOUNDARY BECOMES THE FOCUS FOR ONGOING SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL
MINN AND NRN WISCONSIN. AT THIS TIME...THE IRON RANGE AND ARROWHEAD
REGIONS OF NE MINN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH.
AT THIS TIME...THE BULK OF THE QPF/SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTOGENESIS MON/MON NIGHT LOOKS TO AFFECT AREAS IN CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. CARRYING LIKELY POPS FOR
RAIN/SNOW MONDAY NIGHT FROM THE BRAINERD/MILLE LACS AREA...EAST INTO
THE HAYWARD LAKES.
FOCUS TURNS TO LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT DIGS ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH
MID WEEK...DEEPENING INTO A CLOSED LOW IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
THURSDAY. LATEST ECMWF/GFS/GEM ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW
BECOMES CUT OFF AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS ACROSS IA/MN AND INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE SLOWER
ECMWF SOLUTION FOR POPS AND WINDS. ALTHOUGH VERY FAR OUT IN THE
EXTENDED RANGE...IF THIS LOW CAN MATERIALIZE...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING MUCH NEEDED QPF/RAINFALL OF A HALF
INCH OR MORE TO MUCH OF THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO DELAY THE ONSET OF THE PCPN AS DRY AIR
IS IN PLACE. VFR TO START AT ALL LOCATIONS...BUT EXPECT A
TRANSITION TO MVFR WITH THE ONSET OF THE PCPN AT BRD AND HYR. KEPT
DLH AT VFR FOR NOW...EVEN WITH THE PCPN. HIB AND INL WILL BE VFR
THROUGH THE FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 27 37 26 35 / 30 30 40 40
INL 17 38 22 43 / 0 10 0 10
BRD 28 41 28 39 / 60 50 60 40
HYR 30 40 28 39 / 60 60 70 40
ASX 27 35 27 36 / 40 50 50 40
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CDT
MONDAY FOR MNZ034-036-038.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CDT
MONDAY FOR WIZ006>009.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
LSZ144-145.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GSF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
612 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK
HIT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 10
AM MONDAY. AREAS IN THE ADVISORY WILL LIKELY SEE 2 TO 4
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING TO
THE EAST INTO SRN MN. SOUTH OF THE FRONT THERE IS VERY STRONG WAA
IN THE MID LEVELS...ACROSS A DEEP LAYER...WHICH IS PRODUCING A
STRENGTHENING BAND OF F-GEN JUST SOUTH OF THE TWIN CITIES. AS
EVIDENT ON THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS. CLOUD COVER AND RADAR ECHOES
ARE STARTING TO INTENSIFY WITH THIS AREA OF ENHANCEMENT AND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THOUGH THE EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF THIS
RELATIVELY STRONG MESOSCALE FORCING AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET AND CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONG LIFT AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT WILL OCCUR
IN A FAVORABLE REGION OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WHICH WILL
ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION RATES TO INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL COOL THE COLUMN AND CHANGE ANY RAIN OVER TO
ALL SNOW RELATIVELY QUICKLY. SO...WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR
PERIODIC HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES DURING THIS TIME...WITH A QUICK 2 TO
4 INCHES OVER THE ADVISORY AREA.
A BRIEF BREAK IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SRN
COUNTIES AGAIN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME SITUATED BETWEEN VERY DRY CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO...AND A WARM FRONT WITH
INCREASING WARMTH AND MOISTURE OVER SRN MN THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
ALTHOUGH LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A THERMAL
BOUNDARY BECOMES THE FOCUS FOR ONGOING SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL
MINN AND NRN WISCONSIN. AT THIS TIME...THE IRON RANGE AND ARROWHEAD
REGIONS OF NE MINN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH.
AT THIS TIME...THE BULK OF THE QPF/SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTOGENESIS MON/MON NIGHT LOOKS TO AFFECT AREAS IN CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. CARRYING LIKELY POPS FOR
RAIN/SNOW MONDAY NIGHT FROM THE BRAINERD/MILLE LACS AREA...EAST INTO
THE HAYWARD LAKES.
FOCUS TURNS TO LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT DIGS ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH
MID WEEK...DEEPENING INTO A CLOSED LOW IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
THURSDAY. LATEST ECMWF/GFS/GEM ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW
BECOMES CUT OFF AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS ACROSS IA/MN AND INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE SLOWER
ECMWF SOLUTION FOR POPS AND WINDS. ALTHOUGH VERY FAR OUT IN THE
EXTENDED RANGE...IF THIS LOW CAN MATERIALIZE...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING MUCH NEEDED QPF/RAINFALL OF A HALF
INCH OR MORE TO MUCH OF THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO DELAY THE ONSET OF THE PCPN AS DRY AIR
IS IN PLACE. VFR TO START AT ALL LOCATIONS...BUT EXPECT A
TRANSITION TO MVFR WITH THE ONSET OF THE PCPN AT BRD AND HYR. KEPT
DLH AT VFR FOR NOW...EVEN WITH THE PCPN. HIB AND INL WILL BE VFR
THROUGH THE FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 27 37 26 35 / 30 30 40 40
INL 17 38 22 43 / 0 10 0 10
BRD 28 41 28 39 / 60 50 60 40
HYR 30 40 28 39 / 60 60 70 40
ASX 27 35 27 36 / 40 50 50 40
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CDT
MONDAY FOR MNZ034-036-038.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CDT
MONDAY FOR WIZ006>009.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
LSZ144-145.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GSF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
958 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2015
.UPDATE:
Issued at 934 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2015
Low to mid level cloudiness has spread northward through most of
our forecast area this evening. A small area or band of mainly
light showers moved through portions of southeast MO and was now
moving eastward through southwest IL; from VIH, UVV and FAM and
now about to move through SAR. This activity will likely shift
east-southeast of our forecast area by midnight. The latest HRRR
model run has most of its precipitation southeast of our forecast
area for late tonight. With a southwesterly low level jet
continuing to bring low level temperature and moisture advection
to the region, particularly to the southern half of our forecast
area, along with weak shortwaves moving eastward through the
region, still expecting additional isolated to scattered light
showers late tonight across southeast MO and southwest IL, with a
few sprinkles possible further north. Low temperatures tonight
will be much warmer compared to the previous two nights due to the
cloud cover, southerly surface winds, low level warm air advection,
and higher surface dew points. Minimum temperatures tonight should
be about 5-10 degrees above normal for early April.
GKS
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 414 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2015
Southerly flow on the western side of the high pressure system over
the eastern seaboard is bringing warmer temperatures and increasing
low level moisture to the area. Even with deep mixing over the area
today, surface dewpoint temperatures are around 5 to 10 degrees
higher than they were yesterday. This moistening trend will
continue tonight and ceilings are expected to lower and thicken.
Warm south flow and abundant cloud cover should make for a warmer
night tonight with temperatures mainly in the mid to upper 40s; and
the more urbanized areas of St. Louis may not drop out of the lower
50s. All of this moisture advection is producing light QPF in the
models. However, it is fairly typical for this QPF to be overdone,
and the high resolution WRF models as well as the HRRR are showing
only very light/low probability precipitation. Have therefore
reduced PoPs to sight chance for most of the night...increasing to
low chance by 12Z over the eastern Ozarks.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 414 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2015
NWP output is maintaining fairly good run to run and model to model
consistency as we head into the new work week. Primary forecast
concern continues to be precipitation chances, with all solutions
maintaining the idea of a strong mid level cap dominating much of
the forecast area into Wednesday.
For Monday the odds of measurable rain still appear to be quite
small, with the rain chances (such as they are) tied to stratified
low level moisture trapped beneath the mid level inversion...which
also makes the odds of any convection quite small over most of the
CWA. In general have kept PoPs in the 15-30% range, and have
There are still indications that the increasing low level jet will
lead to the development of elevated convection on the eastern
fringes of the warmer mid level temps late Monday night and into
Tuesday morning. Forecast soundings from both NAM and GFS indicate
that genesis region for this development may be over
northern/central IL with the activity just clipping our CWA, but QPF
output from the ECMWF certainly suggests development much further to
the southwest...generally along the Mississippi River. For now I`ve
continued with high end chance/low likely PoPs for
northeast/easterns sections of our CWA. Elsewhere during this time
frame time PoPs should remain quite low as strong mid level cap
remains in place, although models do suggest some very weak
shortwaves and mid level moisture working across the area that could
lead to some elevated precip.
Frontal boundary drops south late Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday
night before stalling out from the northern Ozarks into southern IL
on Wednesday morning. Have continued chance PoPs in most areas
during this time, but once again these may be too high if the very
warm mid level temps forecast by the NAM/GFS verify.
Threat of storms should begin to ramp over parts of the CWA on Wednesday.
Not certain how much activity (if any) there will be Wednesday
morning, but all guidance indicates WAA ramping up during the
afternoon as upper level trofs begins to push into the western
Plains. This should set the stage for overrunning convection to
develop over northwest MO during the afternoon as low level ascent
is finally able to overcome the mid level cap. Elsewhere the cap
may still be tough to overcome, but with the boundary in the area
I have continued chance PoPs.
Several rounds of storms are expected from Wednesday night...Thursday...and
into Thursday night...as shortwave energy is ejected into the mid
Mississippi Valley from strong upper level trof pushing into the
Plains. These disturbances will finally erode the mid level
capping, and allow the energy from the increasingly unstable low
level AMS to be released, and have carried likely and higher PoPs
for most of the CWA during this period. Obviously, severe weather
remains a very real concern...especially on Thursday and Thursday
night...due to strength of upper level system, large scale shear,
and expected instability of the early summer airmass.
Passage of the cold front should end the thunderstorm threat over
eastern sections of the CWA on Friday morning, followed by drier and
cooler weather on Saturday. However, medium range models are
suggesting the development of return flow will mean another threat
of showers and storms by Sunday.
Truett
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2015
Southerly flow to persist across forecast area through taf valid
period. Otherwise, dealing with increasing low level moisture and
shortwaves that will be moving north through forecast area.
Coverage will be scattered at best, so kept tafs dry for now. Will
see cigs dip down to MVFR between 10z and 14z Monday and remain
that way through rest of forecast period.
Specifics for KSTL:
Southerly flow to persist across forecast area through taf valid
period. Otherwise, dealing with increasing low level moisture and
shortwaves that will be moving north through metro area. Coverage
will be scattered at best, so kept taf dry for now. Will see cigs
dip down to MVFR by 12z Monday and remain that way through rest of
forecast period.
Byrd
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
627 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 414 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2015
Southerly flow on the western side of the high pressure system over
the eastern seaboard is bringing warmer temperatures and increasing
low level moisture to the area. Even with deep mixing over the area
today, surface dewpoint temperatures are around 5 to 10 degrees
higher than they were yesterday. This moistening trend will
continue tonight and ceilings are expected to lower and thicken.
Warm south flow and abundant cloud cover should make for a warmer
night tonight with temperatures mainly in the mid to upper 40s; and
the more urbanized areas of St. Louis may not drop out of the lower
50s. All of this moisture advection is producing light QPF in the
models. However, it is fairly typical for this QPF to be overdone,
and the high resolution WRF models as well as the HRRR are showing
only very light/low probability precipitation. Have therefore
reduced PoPs to sight chance for most of the night...increasing to
low chance by 12Z over the eastern Ozarks.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 414 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2015
NWP output is maintaining fairly good run to run and model to model
consistency as we head into the new work week. Primary forecast
concern continues to be precipitation chances, with all solutions
maintaining the idea of a strong mid level cap dominating much of
the forecast area into Wednesday.
For Monday the odds of measurable rain still appear to be quite
small, with the rain chances (such as they are) tied to stratified
low level moisture trapped beneath the mid level inversion...which
also makes the odds of any convection quite small over most of the
CWA. In general have kept PoPs in the 15-30% range, and have
There are still indications that the increasing low level jet will
lead to the development of elevated convection on the eastern
fringes of the warmer mid level temps late Monday night and into
Tuesday morning. Forecast soundings from both NAM and GFS indicate
that genesis region for this development may be over
northern/central IL with the activity just clipping our CWA, but QPF
output from the ECMWF certainly suggests development much further to
the southwest...generally along the Mississippi River. For now I`ve
continued with high end chance/low likely PoPs for
northeast/easterns sections of our CWA. Elsewhere during this time
frame time PoPs should remain quite low as strong mid level cap
remains in place, although models do suggest some very weak
shortwaves and mid level moisture working across the area that could
lead to some elevated precip.
Frontal boundary drops south late Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday
night before stalling out from the northern Ozarks into southern IL
on Wednesday morning. Have continued chance PoPs in most areas
during this time, but once again these may be too high if the very
warm mid level temps forecast by the NAM/GFS verify.
Threat of storms should begin to ramp over parts of the CWA on Wednesday.
Not certain how much activity (if any) there will be Wednesday
morning, but all guidance indicates WAA ramping up during the
afternoon as upper level trofs begins to push into the western
Plains. This should set the stage for overrunning convection to
develop over northwest MO during the afternoon as low level ascent
is finally able to overcome the mid level cap. Elsewhere the cap
may still be tough to overcome, but with the boundary in the area
I have continued chance PoPs.
Several rounds of storms are expected from Wednesday night...Thursday...and
into Thursday night...as shortwave energy is ejected into the mid
Mississippi Valley from strong upper level trof pushing into the
Plains. These disturbances will finally erode the mid level
capping, and allow the energy from the increasingly unstable low
level AMS to be released, and have carried likely and higher PoPs
for most of the CWA during this period. Obviously, severe weather
remains a very real concern...especially on Thursday and Thursday
night...due to strength of upper level system, large scale shear,
and expected instability of the early summer airmass.
Passage of the cold front should end the thunderstorm threat over
eastern sections of the CWA on Friday morning, followed by drier and
cooler weather on Saturday. However, medium range models are
suggesting the development of return flow will mean another threat
of showers and storms by Sunday.
Truett
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2015
Southerly flow to persist across forecast area through taf valid
period. Otherwise, dealing with increasing low level moisture and
shortwaves that will be moving north through forecast area.
Coverage will be scattered at best, so kept tafs dry for now. Will
see cigs dip down to MVFR between 10z and 14z Monday and remain
that way through rest of forecast period.
Specifics for KSTL:
Southerly flow to persist across forecast area through taf valid
period. Otherwise, dealing with increasing low level moisture and
shortwaves that will be moving north through metro area. Coverage
will be scattered at best, so kept taf dry for now. Will see cigs
dip down to MVFR by 12z Monday and remain that way through rest of
forecast period.
Byrd
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
619 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 420 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
A CLOSE EXAMINATION OF THE ECM SOUNDINGS SHOWS SNOW LIKELY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS THURSDAY NIGHT INCLUDING AINSWORTH AND VALENTINE.
A NEW FORECAST IS OUT TO INCORPORATE THIS FEATURE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
TONIGHT...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY
OVERNIGHT AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEEPENING OF A SURFACE
LOW OFF THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO/SW NEB...AND EVENTUALLY
THE SOUTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS
CURRENTLY SITUATED NEAR THE SODAK/NEB BORDER. IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FEATURE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE BL
MOISTURE...WHICH IN TURN WILL PROVIDE FOR MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS AND
THE POTENTIAL OF PATCHY FOG/LIGHT DRIZZLE AND/OR STRATUS. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON THE QUALITY OF BL MOISTURE RETURN INTO WEST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SEEN ESPECIALLY IN PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS. THUS AT
THIS TIME CONFIDENCE DOES DOES NOT SUPPORT ANY FOG OR DRIZZLE
MENTION MORE THAN PATCHY OR SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
MONDAY.
MONDAY...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN SOUTH AS THE SFC LOW
EXPANDS EAST ALONG THE NEB/KAN BORDER. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
A WIDE RANGE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. BEHIND THE
FRONT WHERE THE INFLUENCE WILL BE FROM MODIFIED CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE...HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WOULD PREVAIL. SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY...70S...POSSIBLY UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED. THE MODELS
ARE STILL HINTING ON LIGHT QPF ALONG A SFC TROUGH /ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA/ DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS MOISTURE AND LIFT
INCREASE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. MAINTAINED JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEAST THOUGH AS CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION IS
STILL RATHER LOW. PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS REVEAL THAT MOISTURE WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE LOWEST LEVELS...IT MAY BE A CASE WHERE IF LIGHT
PRECIP WERE TO OCCUR...DRIZZLE WOULD BE FAVORED.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED IN THE 700MB FLOW APPEARS TO BE THE TRIGGER FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
ELEVATED CAPE IN THE NAM AND GFS IS ONLY A FEW HUNDRED JOULES AND
THIS WOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
A SECOND DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE IN THE 850-700MB LAYER INCREASES MARKEDLY IN THE
MODELS WITH THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE SUGGESTING MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. ELEVATED CAPE REMAINS IN THE LOW
HUNDREDS.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES TO PLAY ON THE STRENGTH OF COLD
PUSHES OF AIR FOLLOWING IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCES MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS ONTARIO WILL STRENGTHEN AND
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CNTL PLAINS WILL PROGRESSIVELY DRAW THIS
COOLER AIR SOUTH.
SOME CLEARING IS SHOWN IN THE MODELS TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH SHALLOW
MOISTURE AND STRATUS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY WEDNESDAY WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE. PERIODS OF DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHS 55 TO 65 TUESDAY COOL
INTO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S WEDNESDAY. A CHECK ON THE NAM VISIBILITY
PRODUCT INDICATED NO FOG TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE ECM IS THE SLOWEST SOLN
FOLLOWED BY THE FIM AND GEM MODELS WITH THE STORM FORECAST TO AFFECT
THE CNTL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GFS...DGEX AND
GEF ARE THE FASTEST.
THE FASTER MODELS ARE DEEPENING A NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE ACROSS
CANADA WHICH CAUSES THE PLAINS STORM TO LIFT OUT QUICKLY. WPC
FAVORED THE SLOWER SOLNS. EITHER WAY RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES WRN NEB
AND POSSIBLY ON A DEVELOPING RAIN SNOW LINE FROM KIML TO KANW AS
SHOWN BY THE GFS AND ECM.
THE DEEP LIFT JUXTAPOSED WITH UNSTABLE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES AND AN APPROACHING PV15 ANOMALY WOULD
SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST NEB
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER...COLD AIR ALOFT
WITH H700MB TEMPERATURES BELOW -6C WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT EITHER A MIX
OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ACROSS WRN NEB DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
THE BEST FORCING EXITS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
RISK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD DECREASE ONCE THIS OCCURS ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE LOWER ELEVATION EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE LOCATION OF THE
RAIN SNOW LINE THURSDAY EVENING HOWEVER IS HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE AT
THIS TIME. THE ECM IS VERY SLOW AND MAINTAINS A HEAVY BAND OF RAIN
OR SNOW ACROSS NCNTL NEB THURSDAY EVENING.
POPS FOR THIS FORECAST ARE CAPPED AT 70 PERCENT WHICH IS VERY HIGH
FOR A DAY 5 FORECAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.
WIND SPEEDS ACROSS WRN NEB BEHIND THE SFC LOW WILL LIKELY REACH 30
MPH THURSDAY. ALL MODELS SHOW NORTH H850MB WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KT
SPANNING THE FCST AREA THURSDAY. THE SLOWER ECM CONTINUES THESE
STRONG WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE STATISTICAL BASED MOS GUIDANCE
SHOWS SFC WINDS INCREASING TO OVER 40 MPH.
A SECOND STORM ACROSS THE WRN ALEUTIANS MAY AFFECT THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SUNDAY BUT THE ECM AND GFS ARE WOBBLING WITH THE STORM TRACK
AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
THE RAP AND HRRR ARE BACKING WINDS THIS EVENING AND SWEEPING
MOISTURE TOWARD KLBF. THE MODELS SHOW FOG FORMING BY MORNING FROM
AROUND KBBW SOUTHWEST TO KLBF. THE FORECAST FOLLOWS THESE MODELS
WITH VFR DEVELOPING AROUND 15Z.
STRATUS ACROSS ERN KS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH INTO ERN/CNTL NEB
BY MORNING. THE STATIONARY FRONT NEAR KVTN WILL SAG SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY WITH MVFR CIGS CONTINUING NORTH OF THE FRONT MONDAY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1004 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL NEW YORK TONIGHT AND
PRODUCING INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THE
WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FOCUS FOR NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER
INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK, WITH A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND WET
SNOW. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL HIGHS WITH NEAR NORMAL LOWS. THOUGH
BRIEF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY, THE PATTERN BEGINS TO
TURN ACTIVE AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1002 PM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE.
A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN SCATTERED ACROSS PARTS
OF THE NORTHERN TIER. NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 718 PM SUNDAY...
WEAK MESOSCALE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND DRAPED INTO CENTRAL VERMONT MARKED BY A BREAK IN DEW
POINTS BY ABOUT 5-8 DEGREES AND DIFFERENCE IN WIND DIRECTION
(NORTH VS SOUTHWEST). THIS IS ACTUALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR A
REGENERATION OF CLOUDS AND HAS EVEN TOUCHED OFF A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. LATEST HRRR AND OTHER HI-RES MODELS MAINTAIN THIS WEAK
FEATURE FOR ABOUT THE FIRST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE WASHING IT OUT
OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN FRONTAL ZONE THIS EVENING REMAINS WELL TO THE
SOUTH BY THE NY/PA BORDER. THIS WILL PUSH NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT
SPREADING ADDITIONAL CLOUDS INTO THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY SOME
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MONDAY MORNING. LOOKING AT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
20S FOR MOST...WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE IN THE COLDEST
LOCATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT SUNDAY...IT`S AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR
THE NORTH COUNTRY, AS WARM FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT PLAYER IN NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK.
THOUGH THE FRONT WILL OSCILLATE NORTH/SOUTH, WEAK MID-LEVEL VORT
MAXIMA ACTING ON THE BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF CLOUDS AND
SEVERAL PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. IT`S ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE GOVERNED LARGELY BY TIME OF DAY AND
ELEVATION.
SPANNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY, QPF AMOUNTS
RUN FROM A QUARTER INCH FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TO NEAR AN INCH
FOR RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES. ACROSS THAT SAME TIME PERIOD, SNOW
AMOUNTS IN LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE UNDER 2" (MAINLY ON GRASS), BUT TICK
UPWARD TO 4-6" FOR THE HIGHEST NORTHERN SUMMITS.
DAILY SPECIFICS FOLLOW...
FOR MONDAY: AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING TO BEGIN, BUT
AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM EXPECT WET SNOW TO CHANGE TO RAIN. A
PRETTY WELL-DEFINED WARM-FRONTAL BAND EVIDENT IN MOST AVAILABLE 12Z
GUIDANCE ALLOWS FOR POPS TO INCREASE TO LIKELY/LOW CATEGORICAL INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON. BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS, WITH MORE WEIGHT
TOWARDS COLDER MAV NUMBERS GIVEN OVERCAST. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER/MID 40S.
MONDAY NIGHT: 925-850 TEMPS BEGIN TO RISE ABOVE 0C EARLY MONDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER, WARMING ALOFT IS FOR A SHORT TIME AS INITIAL FRONTAL
WAVE EXITS INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE. LEFTOVER RAIN BEGINS TO CHANGE OVER
TO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR BRIEFLY AS ICE PELLETS BUT DECREASING POPS
TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT A SLOW FALL IN TEMPERATURES GIVEN
OVERCAST, FALLING TO LOWS AROUND 30 IN AREAS ADJACENT TO THE
CANADIAN BORDER TO THE UPPER 30S FOR SOUTHERN VT.
TUESDAY: NEXT FRONTAL WAVE ON THE LEFTOVER IMPACTS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. HOWEVER, 12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE GETS
SUPPRESSED A BIT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH THAN ON MONDAY. WITH THE
BOUNDARY BEING SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH, POPS AND QPF ARE HIGHEST FOR
SOUTHERN VT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AND LOWER FURTHEST NORTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE GENERALLY SIMILAR TO THOSE ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT: SECOND FRONTAL WAVE MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE. POPS TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THIS PERIOD WITH RAIN CHANGING TO A MIX OF WET SNOW
AS TEMPERATURE/THICKNESS PROFILES COOL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT SUNDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
EXTEND SOUTHWEST TO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE REGION BY LATER IN THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN EXTENDING INTO THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHWEST FROM NORTHERN MAINE AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE REGION...SO HAVE GONE
WITH A DRY FORECAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING A FRONTAL SYSTEM SOUTHWEST OF THE
REGION EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEAST AS A WARM
FRONT ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT SLIDES EASTWARD.
EXPECTING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
HAVE KEPT IN A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH AND CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00 TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL
SEE AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL (BKN-OVC050-080) CLOUDS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH...FOLLOWED BY DEVELOPING MVFR CONDITIONS MONDAY. QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF NEW YORK AND NRN
PENNSLYVANIA IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE
TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY MONDAY. NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AS A RESULT...AND BECOME LIGHT S-SE DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. FRONTAL ZONE WILL BRING INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH DEVELOPING SNOW AND RAIN BY
15-18Z...AND CONTINUED MVFR AND INTERVALS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN
VALLEY RAIN AND LOCALIZED SNOW/RAIN MIX AT SLK/MPV. OVERALL
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...AND ABOVE FREEZING
PAVEMENT TEMPS SHOULD MINIMIZE OVERALL IMPACT TO AVIATION GROUND
OPERATIONS FROM ANY LIGHT SNOWFALL. MONDAY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS
GENERALLY 3-5SM WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO 2-4 KFT. HIR TRRN
BECOMING OBSCD AFTER 15-16Z MONDAY.
OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...BKN/OVC MVFR/VFR WITH PERIODIC
BOUTS OF MVFR/IFR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS
JUST SOUTH THE AREA WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE
FRONT.
12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE OVER THE REGION.
00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...BANACOS/WGH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
744 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL NEW YORK TONIGHT AND
PRODUCING INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THE
WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FOCUS FOR NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER
INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK, WITH A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND WET
SNOW. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL HIGHS WITH NEAR NORMAL LOWS. THOUGH
BRIEF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY, THE PATTERN BEGINS TO
TURN ACTIVE AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 718 PM EDT SUNDAY...WEAK MESOSCALE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY SET
UP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND DRAPED INTO CENTRAL VERMONT MARKED
BY A BREAK IN DEW POINTS BY ABOUT 5-8 DEGREES AND DIFFERENCE IN
WIND DIRECTION (NORTH VS SOUTHWEST). THIS IS ACTUALLY RESPONSIBLE
FOR A REGENERATION OF CLOUDS AND HAS EVEN TOUCHED OFF A FEW LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS. LATEST HRRR AND OTHER HI-RES MODELS MAINTAIN THIS
WEAK FEATURE FOR ABOUT THE FIRST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE WASHING IT
OUT OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN FRONTAL ZONE THIS EVENING REMAINS WELL TO
THE SOUTH BY THE NY/PA BORDER. THIS WILL PUSH NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT
SPREADING ADDITIONAL CLOUDS INTO THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY SOME
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MONDAY MORNING. LOOKING AT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
20S FOR MOST...WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE IN THE COLDEST
LOCATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT SUNDAY...IT`S AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR
THE NORTH COUNTRY, AS WARM FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT PLAYER IN NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK.
THOUGH THE FRONT WILL OSCILLATE NORTH/SOUTH, WEAK MID-LEVEL VORT
MAXIMA ACTING ON THE BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF CLOUDS AND
SEVERAL PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. IT`S ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE GOVERNED LARGELY BY TIME OF DAY AND
ELEVATION.
SPANNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY, QPF AMOUNTS
RUN FROM A QUARTER INCH FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TO NEAR AN INCH
FOR RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES. ACROSS THAT SAME TIME PERIOD, SNOW
AMOUNTS IN LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE UNDER 2" (MAINLY ON GRASS), BUT TICK
UPWARD TO 4-6" FOR THE HIGHEST NORTHERN SUMMITS.
DAILY SPECIFICS FOLLOW...
FOR MONDAY: AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING TO BEGIN, BUT
AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM EXPECT WET SNOW TO CHANGE TO RAIN. A
PRETTY WELL-DEFINED WARM-FRONTAL BAND EVIDENT IN MOST AVAILABLE 12Z
GUIDANCE ALLOWS FOR POPS TO INCREASE TO LIKELY/LOW CATEGORICAL INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON. BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS, WITH MORE WEIGHT
TOWARDS COLDER MAV NUMBERS GIVEN OVERCAST. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER/MID 40S.
MONDAY NIGHT: 925-850 TEMPS BEGIN TO RISE ABOVE 0C EARLY MONDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER, WARMING ALOFT IS FOR A SHORT TIME AS INITIAL FRONTAL
WAVE EXITS INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE. LEFTOVER RAIN BEGINS TO CHANGE OVER
TO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR BRIEFLY AS ICE PELLETS BUT DECREASING POPS
TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT A SLOW FALL IN TEMPERATURES GIVEN
OVERCAST, FALLING TO LOWS AROUND 30 IN AREAS ADJACENT TO THE
CANADIAN BORDER TO THE UPPER 30S FOR SOUTHERN VT.
TUESDAY: NEXT FRONTAL WAVE ON THE LEFTOVER IMPACTS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. HOWEVER, 12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE GETS
SUPPRESSED A BIT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH THAN ON MONDAY. WITH THE
BOUNDARY BEING SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH, POPS AND QPF ARE HIGHEST FOR
SOUTHERN VT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AND LOWER FURTHEST NORTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE GENERALLY SIMILAR TO THOSE ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT: SECOND FRONTAL WAVE MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE. POPS TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THIS PERIOD WITH RAIN CHANGING TO A MIX OF WET SNOW
AS TEMPERATURE/THICKNESS PROFILES COOL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT SUNDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
EXTEND SOUTHWEST TO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE REGION BY LATER IN THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN EXTENDING INTO THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHWEST FROM NORTHERN MAINE AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE REGION...SO HAVE GONE
WITH A DRY FORECAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING A FRONTAL SYSTEM SOUTHWEST OF THE
REGION EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEAST AS A WARM
FRONT ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT SLIDES EASTWARD.
EXPECTING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
HAVE KEPT IN A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH AND CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00 TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL
SEE AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL (BKN-OVC050-080) CLOUDS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH...FOLLOWED BY DEVELOPING MVFR CONDITIONS MONDAY. QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF NEW YORK AND NRN
PENNSLYVANIA IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE
TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY MONDAY. NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AS A RESULT...AND BECOME LIGHT S-SE DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. FRONTAL ZONE WILL BRING INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH DEVELOPING SNOW AND RAIN BY
15-18Z...AND CONTINUED MVFR AND INTERVALS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN
VALLEY RAIN AND LOCALIZED SNOW/RAIN MIX AT SLK/MPV. OVERALL
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...AND ABOVE FREEZING
PAVEMENT TEMPS SHOULD MINIMIZE OVERALL IMPACT TO AVIATION GROUND
OPERATIONS FROM ANY LIGHT SNOWFALL. MONDAY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS
GENERALLY 3-5SM WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO 2-4 KFT. HIR TRRN
BECOMING OBSCD AFTER 15-16Z MONDAY.
OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...BKN/OVC MVFR/VFR WITH PERIODIC
BOUTS OF MVFR/IFR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS
JUST SOUTH THE AREA WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE
FRONT.
12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE OVER THE REGION.
00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...BANACOS/WGH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
725 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL NEW YORK TONIGHT AND
PRODUCING INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THE
WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FOCUS FOR NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER
INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK, WITH A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND WET
SNOW. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL HIGHS WITH NEAR NORMAL LOWS. THOUGH
BRIEF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY, THE PATTERN BEGINS TO
TURN ACTIVE AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 718 PM EDT SUNDAY...WEAK MESOSCALE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY SET
UP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND DRAPED INTO CENTRAL VERMONT MARKED
BY A BREAK IN DEW POINTS BY ABOUT 5-8 DEGREES AND DIFFERENCE IN
WIND DIRECTION (NORTH VS SOUTHWEST). THIS IS ACTUALLY RESPONSIBLE
FOR A REGENERATION OF CLOUDS AND HAS EVEN TOUCHED OFF A FEW LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS. LATEST HRRR AND OTHER HI-RES MODELS MAINTAIN THIS
WEAK FEATURE FOR ABOUT THE FIRST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE WASHING IT
OUT OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN FRONTAL ZONE THIS EVENING REMAINS WELL TO
THE SOUTH BY THE NY/PA BORDER. THIS WILL PUSH NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT
SPREADING ADDITIONAL CLOUDS INTO THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY SOME
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MONDAY MORNING. LOOKING AT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
20S FOR MOST...WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE IN THE COLDEST
LOCATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT SUNDAY...IT`S AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR
THE NORTH COUNTRY, AS WARM FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT PLAYER IN NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK.
THOUGH THE FRONT WILL OSCILLATE NORTH/SOUTH, WEAK MID-LEVEL VORT
MAXIMA ACTING ON THE BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF CLOUDS AND
SEVERAL PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. IT`S ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE GOVERNED LARGELY BY TIME OF DAY AND
ELEVATION.
SPANNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY, QPF AMOUNTS
RUN FROM A QUARTER INCH FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TO NEAR AN INCH
FOR RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES. ACROSS THAT SAME TIME PERIOD, SNOW
AMOUNTS IN LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE UNDER 2" (MAINLY ON GRASS), BUT TICK
UPWARD TO 4-6" FOR THE HIGHEST NORTHERN SUMMITS.
DAILY SPECIFICS FOLLOW...
FOR MONDAY: AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING TO BEGIN, BUT
AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM EXPECT WET SNOW TO CHANGE TO RAIN. A
PRETTY WELL-DEFINED WARM-FRONTAL BAND EVIDENT IN MOST AVAILABLE 12Z
GUIDANCE ALLOWS FOR POPS TO INCREASE TO LIKELY/LOW CATEGORICAL INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON. BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS, WITH MORE WEIGHT
TOWARDS COLDER MAV NUMBERS GIVEN OVERCAST. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER/MID 40S.
MONDAY NIGHT: 925-850 TEMPS BEGIN TO RISE ABOVE 0C EARLY MONDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER, WARMING ALOFT IS FOR A SHORT TIME AS INITIAL FRONTAL
WAVE EXITS INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE. LEFTOVER RAIN BEGINS TO CHANGE OVER
TO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR BRIEFLY AS ICE PELLETS BUT DECREASING POPS
TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT A SLOW FALL IN TEMPERATURES GIVEN
OVERCAST, FALLING TO LOWS AROUND 30 IN AREAS ADJACENT TO THE
CANADIAN BORDER TO THE UPPER 30S FOR SOUTHERN VT.
TUESDAY: NEXT FRONTAL WAVE ON THE LEFTOVER IMPACTS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. HOWEVER, 12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE GETS
SUPPRESSED A BIT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH THAN ON MONDAY. WITH THE
BOUNDARY BEING SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH, POPS AND QPF ARE HIGHEST FOR
SOUTHERN VT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AND LOWER FURTHEST NORTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE GENERALLY SIMILAR TO THOSE ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT: SECOND FRONTAL WAVE MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE. POPS TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THIS PERIOD WITH RAIN CHANGING TO A MIX OF WET SNOW
AS TEMPERATURE/THICKNESS PROFILES COOL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT SUNDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
EXTEND SOUTHWEST TO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE REGION BY LATER IN THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN EXTENDING INTO THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHWEST FROM NORTHERN MAINE AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE REGION...SO HAVE GONE
WITH A DRY FORECAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING A FRONTAL SYSTEM SOUTHWEST OF THE
REGION EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEAST AS A WARM
FRONT ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT SLIDES EASTWARD.
EXPECTING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
HAVE KEPT IN A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH AND CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD...AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE REGION ALONG THE
PENNSYLVANIA-NEW YORK BORDER AT 18Z SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN MID
AND HIGH CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWERING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS WARM FRONT BETWEEN 15Z-18Z MONDAY.
OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...BKN/OVC MVFR/VFR WITH PERIODIC
BOUTS OF MVFR/IFR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS
JUST SOUTH THE AREA WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE
FRONT.
12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE OVER THE REGION.
00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1032 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. THE HIGH
REMAINS CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY THEN MOVE BACK NORTH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OFFSHORE WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. CLEAR SKIES WILL
GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. DEWPOINT TEMPS HAVE INCREASED THIS EVENING AS WINDS HAVE
BECOME MORE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY...THEREFORE INCREASED
DEWPOINTS ACROSS OUR CWA. STILL EXPECTING LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO MID 50S OUTER BANKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH PRES CONTINUES OFFSHORE MONDAY WITH A RATHER FLAT FLOW
ALOFT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY GRAZE COASTAL AREAS IN THE MOIST SOUTH
FLOW AMID SUBTLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. OTHERWISE EXPECT
INCREASING CLOUDS BUT LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP WELL AHEAD OF SHORT
WAVE MOVING THRU THE TN VALLEY. DESPITE CLOUD COVER, RISING
THICKNESS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S INLAND WITH UPR 60S
BEACHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SUN...NOT MUCH SPREAD SEEN IN THE MODELS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. MAINLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AS DEEP LOW DIGS DOWN THE WEST COAST. SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FAST FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK.
WEAK UPPER RIDGE WIL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST LATER IN THE
WEEK...BUT WILL BE QUICKLY SHUNTED OFFSHORE AS LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING A
FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AROUND AND WITH IMPULSES RIDING THROUGH THE
UPPER FLOW...WILL HAVE AT LEAST SMALL POPS EACH DAY.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE AREA WILL BRING SOUTHERLY
FLOW TUESDAY BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY ALLOWING GULF MOISTURE TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. PW VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.3 INCHES. BACK DOOR
FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. SOME
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS WITH THIS FRONT WITH ECMWF BRINGING IT AS FAR
SOUTH AS SOUTH CAROLINA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND GFS/ENS KEEPING IT
FURTHER NORTH. LOCATION OF FRONT WILL DETERMINE TEMPERATURES. FOR
NOW WILL GO WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY WITH WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S AND A CHANCE OF DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 710 PM SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH MONDAY. WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
STRAY PATCHES OF FOG...BUT OVERALL TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS
PER LATEST MOS GUIDANCE ARE ABOUT 4 TO 6 DEGREES...WHICH SHOULD
PRECLUDE MOST SUB-VFR FOG OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASED HIGH
CLOUD COVER. WIDESPREAD MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
MONDAY AS WELL.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 244 PM SUN...CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EACH DAY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH AND CROSS NORTH CAROLINA TAF SITES LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY
THURSDAY. FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY AND
MOVE BACK NORTH ON FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE; NO UPDATE
NEEDED.
PREV DIS...MAINLY MINOR WIND DIRECTION TWEAKS AS LATEST 3KM HRRR
AND RAP SHOW WINDS GENERALLY BECOMING E/SE ACROSS THE WATERS AT
SPEEDS GENERALLY 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS AT 2 TO 4 FEET. SOUTH
FLOW GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS MONDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
ALONG THE COAST. SPEEDS MAY REACH 15-20KT OVER OUTER WATERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE. SEAS BUILD TO 3-4 FT BY
LATE MON AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM SUN...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS WILL START THE LONGER RANGE
PERIOD. LOOSE GRADIENT FOR WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AND WAVES IN THE 3
TO 4 FOOT RANGE. SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS AS THIS FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE WATERS.
TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ON THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/BM
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...CCG
AVIATION...CCG/CTC
MARINE...CCG/BTC/CTC/BM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1011 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ALOFT EMBEDDED WITH THE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
REGION WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWS THESE HIGH
CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE REGION. THESE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER
TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON MONDAY...LIKELY HAMPERING OVERNIGHT LOWS SOME.
AM GENERALLY EXPECTING LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST (WHERE CLOUDS WILL HAVE THE LEAST EFFECT) TO THE UPPER 40S
TO NEAR 50 DEGREES FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST. DESPITE THE INCREASING
WARM AIR ADVECTION...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED IN THE LOW LEVELS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...
MONDAY: UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL MON/MON NIGHT. IN
ADDITION TO WARM ADVECTION...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE AUGMENTED BY
WEAK DPVA ATTENDANT PERIODIC/TRANSIENT SMALL AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES
IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. LITTLE IF ANY DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY DUE TO PERVASIVE CLOUD COVER AND SLOW/LIMITED
SURFACE MOISTURE RETURN DUE TO A LINGERING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. GIVEN A RELATIVELY STABLE
ATMOSPHERE AND A PROBABLE DISCONNECT BETWEEN TRANSIENT DPVA AND
PERIODS OF ENHANCED WARM ADVECTION...WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY
FORECAST. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
MONDAY NIGHT: CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION AND BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT VIA AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE PWAT VALUES TO 1.25-1.35" MON
NIGHT AND RESULT IN WEAK ELEVATED /NOCTURNAL/ DESTABILIZATION WITH
MUCAPE VALUES UP TO ~250 J/KG. GIVEN BETTER MOISTURE...MARGINAL
DESTABILIZATION...MODEST WARM ADVECTION...AND AN INCREASED POTENTIAL
FOR TRANSIENT DPVA ASSOC/W SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES IN WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...ELEVATED SHOWERS APPEAR LIKELY (60%) IN THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT...WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) EXTENDING EAST OF THE
TRIANGLE. INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN..THOUGH PRECIP AMOUNTS APPEAR LIGHT
(A FEW HUNDREDTHS) AT BEST. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S. -VINCENT
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM SUNDAY...
THIS WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED AS ABNORMALLY WARM AND MOIST AT
NIGHT... AND VERY WARM AT TIMES DURING THE DAY (ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY) WHEN CENTRAL NC IS MOST LIKELY TO BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS SHOULD BE
TUESDAY (WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE) AND THEN POSSIBLY LATE WED-THU WITH
A BACKDOOR FRONT... AND THEN AGAIN TOWARD THE WEEKEND.
A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SW TO NE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.
THIS SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND THE DEW
POINTS WILL INCREASE TO 60+ AS THE WARM FRONT PASSES TO OUR NORTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS GENERALLY 70-80 FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL SHIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH OUR REGION SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. LOWS
60+ EXPECTED WED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. TIMING OF THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE (SOMETIME WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING). WE WILL INCREASE THE POP AND
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN FOR LATE WEDNESDAY (NORTH) AND ALL
ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FINE TUNED IN LATER FORECASTS.
IN ADDITION TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FOR MID WEEK... THE LOCATION
IS ALSO IN QUESTION AS RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD ALOFT THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL EITHER OVER OR
JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY BEFORE RETREATING
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY. IF THE FRONT DOES PUSH FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH INTO SC... MUCH MORE STABLE AND COOLER LOW LEVEL NE FLOW WILL
ENVELOPE VA INTO CENTRAL NC. MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT BUT WE ARE
TRENDING TOWARD A BLEND OF THE EC AND GFS WHICH INDICATE A 1025+ MB
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD FROM NEW
ENGLAND LATE WED-THURS. THE HIGH IS OF FAVORABLE STRENGTH... BUT A
BIT DISPLACED EAST OF THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR STRONG CAD
DEVELOPMENT INTO NC AND SC... LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
HOWEVER... WATER TEMPS ARE VERY COLD YET ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND AND
MID-ATLANTIC COASTS WHICH SHOULD AID IN THE PUSH OF LOW LEVEL
COOL/STABLE AIR SOUTHWARD GIVEN A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
THEREFORE... WE DO ANTICIPATE THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO OUR
REGION FROM THE N-NE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THEN
STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS THURSDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT (MOST LIKELY
DURING PEAK HEATING WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE N-E ZONES...
SHIFTING SW THURSDAY INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT SE INTO THE
SANDHILLS. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD BE COOLEST NE AND WARMEST SOUTH (70-
82).
BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH
FRIDAY... WITH A RETURN TO SSW FLOW AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS SHOULD
RETURN TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. THE LACK OF A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
SHOULD KEEP POP AND QPF AT A MINIMUM. THIS WILL BE UNTIL THE ENERGY
AND THE FRONT FROM THE WEST APPROACH LATER FRIDAY. WE WILL INCREASE
CLOUDS... POP... AND LOWER TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT ESPECIALLY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO PUSH THROUGH ALL OF
THE REGION... MAINTAINING CLOUDS AND POP LONGER THAN THE GFS
INDICATES.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 735 PM SUNDAY...
24-HR TAF PERIOD: A SERIES OF S/W DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
OFF THE NC COAST WILL SLIDE FURTHER OFFSHORE...ALLOWING
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO ADVECT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
LATEST RAP AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE ANY SUB-VFR CEILINGS WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...WITH SOME LOW END VFR
CEILINGS ~4-5KFT EXPECTED AT KINT AND KGSO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST AT ~10 KT ON MONDAY.
LOOKING AHEAD: FURTHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING MONDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD
TO A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A MOIST/HUMID
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...KRD
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...CBL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
735 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTE TO PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THAT SHOULD APPROACH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...
OVERVIEW: A ZONAL /UNIDIRECTIONAL/ SYNOPTIC REGIME WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION TODAY...WHILE A SFC-H85 RIDGE (ATTENDANT
SUBSIDENCE /CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT/) SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE
/DOWNSTREAM/ INTO THE ATLANTIC.
TODAY: CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
DRY/SUBSIDENT AIRMASS IN PLACE...CHARACTERIZED BY PWAT VALUES
~0.10"...(SEE 12Z GSO RAOB). EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S
(FAR N/NW) TO NEAR 70F SOUTH/SE.
TONIGHT: MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN TONIGHT...WITH
PWAT VALUES RISING TO 0.50-0.75" (DRIEST NE COASTAL PLAIN). CIRRUS
(CEILINGS INITIALLY 18+ KFT) WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE THIS
EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WNW...BECOMING OVERCAST WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO 7-12 KFT BY
SUNRISE IN ASSOC/W STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION FROM THE
WEST. ADDITIONALLY...LOW STRATUS (CEILINGS ~1500 FT AGL) MAY DEVELOP
IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BY SUNRISE IN ASSOC/W WEAK ALBEIT PERSISTENT
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT GIVEN A DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS AND FORCING GENERALLY
CONFINED TO WEAK (THOUGH RELATIVELY DEEP AND PERSISTENT) WARM
ADVECTION. LOWS MAY OCCUR BY MIDNIGHT IN SOME LOCATIONS...ESP IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THE EARLIEST.
EXPECTS LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. -VINCENT
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...
MONDAY: UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL MON/MON NIGHT. IN
ADDITION TO WARM ADVECTION...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE AUGMENTED BY
WEAK DPVA ATTENDANT PERIODIC/TRANSIENT SMALL AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES
IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. LITTLE IF ANY DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY DUE TO PERVASIVE CLOUD COVER AND SLOW/LIMITED
SURFACE MOISTURE RETURN DUE TO A LINGERING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. GIVEN A RELATIVELY STABLE
ATMOSPHERE AND A PROBABLE DISCONNECT BETWEEN TRANSIENT DPVA AND
PERIODS OF ENHANCED WARM ADVECTION...WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY
FORECAST. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
MONDAY NIGHT: CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION AND BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT VIA AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE PWAT VALUES TO 1.25-1.35" MON
NIGHT AND RESULT IN WEAK ELEVATED /NOCTURNAL/ DESTABILIZATION WITH
MUCAPE VALUES UP TO ~250 J/KG. GIVEN BETTER MOISTURE...MARGINAL
DESTABILIZATION...MODEST WARM ADVECTION...AND AN INCREASED POTENTIAL
FOR TRANSIENT DPVA ASSOC/W SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES IN WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...ELEVATED SHOWERS APPEAR LIKELY (60%) IN THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT...WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) EXTENDING EAST OF THE
TRIANGLE. INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN..THOUGH PRECIP AMOUNTS APPEAR LIGHT
(A FEW HUNDREDTHS) AT BEST. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S. -VINCENT
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM SUNDAY...
THIS WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED AS ABNORMALLY WARM AND MOIST AT
NIGHT... AND VERY WARM AT TIMES DURING THE DAY (ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY) WHEN CENTRAL NC IS MOST LIKELY TO BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS SHOULD BE
TUESDAY (WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE) AND THEN POSSIBLY LATE WED-THU WITH
A BACKDOOR FRONT... AND THEN AGAIN TOWARD THE WEEKEND.
A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SW TO NE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.
THIS SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND THE DEW
POINTS WILL INCREASE TO 60+ AS THE WARM FRONT PASSES TO OUR NORTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS GENERALLY 70-80 FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL SHIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH OUR REGION SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. LOWS
60+ EXPECTED WED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. TIMING OF THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE (SOMETIME WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING). WE WILL INCREASE THE POP AND
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN FOR LATE WEDNESDAY (NORTH) AND ALL
ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FINE TUNED IN LATER FORECASTS.
IN ADDITION TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FOR MID WEEK... THE LOCATION
IS ALSO IN QUESTION AS RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD ALOFT THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL EITHER OVER OR
JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY BEFORE RETREATING
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY. IF THE FRONT DOES PUSH FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH INTO SC... MUCH MORE STABLE AND COOLER LOW LEVEL NE FLOW WILL
ENVELOPE VA INTO CENTRAL NC. MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT BUT WE ARE
TRENDING TOWARD A BLEND OF THE EC AND GFS WHICH INDICATE A 1025+ MB
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD FROM NEW
ENGLAND LATE WED-THURS. THE HIGH IS OF FAVORABLE STRENGTH... BUT A
BIT DISPLACED EAST OF THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR STRONG CAD
DEVELOPMENT INTO NC AND SC... LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
HOWEVER... WATER TEMPS ARE VERY COLD YET ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND AND
MID-ATLANTIC COASTS WHICH SHOULD AID IN THE PUSH OF LOW LEVEL
COOL/STABLE AIR SOUTHWARD GIVEN A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
THEREFORE... WE DO ANTICIPATE THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO OUR
REGION FROM THE N-NE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THEN
STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS THURSDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT (MOST LIKELY
DURING PEAK HEATING WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE N-E ZONES...
SHIFTING SW THURSDAY INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT SE INTO THE
SANDHILLS. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD BE COOLEST NE AND WARMEST SOUTH (70-
82).
BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH
FRIDAY... WITH A RETURN TO SSW FLOW AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS SHOULD
RETURN TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. THE LACK OF A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
SHOULD KEEP POP AND QPF AT A MINIMUM. THIS WILL BE UNTIL THE ENERGY
AND THE FRONT FROM THE WEST APPROACH LATER FRIDAY. WE WILL INCREASE
CLOUDS... POP... AND LOWER TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT ESPECIALLY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO PUSH THROUGH ALL OF
THE REGION... MAINTAINING CLOUDS AND POP LONGER THAN THE GFS
INDICATES.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 735 PM SUNDAY...
24-HR TAF PERIOD: A SERIES OF S/W DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
OFF THE NC COAST WILL SLIDE FURTHER OFFSHORE...ALLOWING
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO ADVECT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
LATEST RAP AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE ANY SUB-VFR CEILINGS WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...WITH SOME LOW END VFR
CEILINGS ~4-5KFT EXPECTED AT KINT AND KGSO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST AT ~10 KT ON MONDAY.
LOOKING AHEAD: FURTHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING MONDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD
TO A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A MOIST/HUMID
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...CBL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
714 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. THE HIGH
REMAINS CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY THEN MOVE BACK NORTH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 710 PM SUNDAY...NO BIG CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
CLEAR SKIES WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS ARE STILL QUITE
LOW...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BECOME BETTER MIXED OVERNIGHT WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO MID 50S OUTER
BANKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH PRES CONTINUES OFFSHORE MONDAY WITH A RATHER FLAT FLOW
ALOFT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY GRAZE COASTAL AREAS IN THE MOIST SOUTH
FLOW AMID SUBTLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. OTHERWISE EXPECT
INCREASING CLOUDS BUT LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP WELL AHEAD OF SHORT
WAVE MOVING THRU THE TN VALLEY. DESPITE CLOUD COVER, RISING
THICKNESS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S INLAND WITH UPR 60S
BEACHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SUN...NOT MUCH SPREAD SEEN IN THE MODELS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. MAINLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AS DEEP LOW DIGS DOWN THE WEST COAST. SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FAST FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK.
WEAK UPPER RIDGE WIL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST LATER IN THE
WEEK...BUT WILL BE QUICKLY SHUNTED OFFSHORE AS LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING A
FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AROUND AND WITH IMPULSES RIDING THROUGH THE
UPPER FLOW...WILL HAVE AT LEAST SMALL POPS EACH DAY.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE AREA WILL BRING SOUTHERLY
FLOW TUESDAY BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY ALLOWING GULF MOISTURE TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. PW VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.3 INCHES. BACK DOOR
FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. SOME
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS WITH THIS FRONT WITH ECMWF BRINGING IT AS FAR
SOUTH AS SOUTH CAROLINA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND GFS/ENS KEEPING IT
FURTHER NORTH. LOCATION OF FRONT WILL DETERMINE TEMPERATURES. FOR
NOW WILL GO WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY WITH WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S AND A CHANCE OF DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 710 PM SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH MONDAY. WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
STRAY PATCHES OF FOG...BUT OVERALL TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS
PER LATEST MOS GUIDANCE ARE ABOUT 4 TO 6 DEGREES...WHICH SHOULD
PRECLUDE MOST SUB-VFR FOG OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASED HIGH
CLOUD COVER. WIDESPREAD MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
MONDAY AS WELL.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 244 PM SUN...CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EACH DAY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH AND CROSS NORTH CAROLINA TAF SITES LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY
THURSDAY. FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY AND
MOVE BACK NORTH ON FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM SUNDAY...MADE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT MARINE
FORECAST...MAINLY MINOR WIND DIRECTION TWEAKS AS LATEST 3KM HRRR
AND RAP SHOW WINDS GENERALLY BECOMING E/SE ACROSS THE WATERS AT
SPEEDS GENERALLY 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS AT 2 TO 4 FEET. SOUTH
FLOW GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS MONDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
ALONG THE COAST. SPEEDS MAY REACH 15-20KT OVER OUTER WATERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE. SEAS BUILD TO 3-4 FT BY
LATE MON AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM SUN...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS WILL START THE LONGER RANGE
PERIOD. LOOSE GRADIENT FOR WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AND WAVES IN THE 3
TO 4 FOOT RANGE. SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS AS THIS FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE WATERS.
TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ON THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...CCG
AVIATION...CCG/CTC
MARINE...CCG/BTC/CTC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1027 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO MOST OF THE AREA...MAINLY THIS MORNING. GUSTY
WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. CHILLY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND THEN
OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A BRIEF
COOL-DOWN THIS WEEKEND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WARM UP NEXT
WEEK. THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WITH US FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM SATURDAY...LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. LATEST OBS
SHOW THE FRONT LINED UP ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. AT
CURRENT RATE EXPECT FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AROUND NOON OR
SO...WITH THE RISK FOR SHOWERS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING THEREAFTER.
HRRR AND RAP13 MODELS NOT DOING TOO BAD AS FAR AS
COVERAGE...MOVEMENT AND NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION GOES SO WILL
CONTINUE TO RELY ON THEM PLUS PERSISTENCE FOR THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWS:
THIS FORECAST IS BIASED IN THE DIRECTION OF THE HRRR MODEL WHICH
SHOWS SUFFICIENT MOISTENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA...TO WARRANT CHANCE/GOOD CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BEFORE THE
COLUMN UNDERGOES SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. WE
ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH RAIN HOWEVER...JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS...AND
MANY PLACES MAY JUST RECEIVE A LIGHT AND BRIEF WETTING AND NOT
MEASURE.
GIVEN THE TIMING...AND WITH ALL OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MISSING
WELL TO OUR NORTH...WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL END THIS MORNING...LASTLY AT THE COAST
AROUND MIDDAY. COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
IS IMPRESSIVE FOR EARLY APRILS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS...COMPLIMENTS OF LOW LEVEL JETTING...HAS ALLOWED
TEMPS TO REMAIN ELEVATED. EXPECT TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...PERHAPS FALLING A DEGREE OR TWO AS SOME
OF THE RAIN EVAPORATES AS IT FALLS THROUGH THE COLUMN AND CAUSES
SOME SLIGHT COOLING. TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO VARY MUCH THROUGH
THE DAY AS S TO SW WINDS TURN N THIS MORNING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 70S...PERHAPS A CATEGORY LOWER AT THE BEACHES AS SIGNIFICANT
COLD AIR ADVECTION BATTLES DEVELOPING APRIL SUNSHINE.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE DROPPING...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON...DOWN
TO 25 TO 35 PERCENT...LOWEST ACROSS MANY OF OUR INLAND COMMUNITIES.
SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLOUDY INTO THIS MORNING...BUT CLEARING WILL
COMMENCE FROM W TO E THROUGH THE LATER MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SUNNY...OR MOSTLY SO.
TONIGHT...CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE EVE
AND OVERNIGHT AS WINDS GO LIGHT TO CALM. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FROST TO
THE FORECAST FOR AREAS N OF A FLO TO NEAR EYF TO WATHA LINE. SOIL
TEMPS HAVE REACHED INTO THE 60S NOW AND GIVEN LOWS IN THESE AREAS
WILL ONLY BRIEFLY DROP TO THE MID 30S TOWARD MORNING...EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL NOT EXPERIENCE A FROST...ESPECIALLY GIVEN DEWPOINTS
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SIGNIFICANT DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS. LOWS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...AFTER A CHILLY START SUNDAY WILL FEATURE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND FAIRLY COMFORTABLE ALBEIT STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW
CLIMO TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD KEEPING MIXING SOMEWHAT MARGINALIZED EVEN
THOUGH WARM ADVECTION WILL BE HAPPENING JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE BASED
LAYER. SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OFF THE COAST A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND HELP REALIZE THIS WAA AT THE
SURFACE. AS A RESULT SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLE AND
THEREFORE MUCH LESS CHILLY THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. SIMILARLY MONDAY
WILL OFFER UP SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BUT THERE WILL ALSO BE
INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND SOME RAIN CHANCES SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE GETS A DEEPER
ASCENT BOOST FROM SOME WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES. MUCH OF THE COLUMN
ABOVE ABOUT 700MB REMAINS WESTERLY HOWEVER AND CAN`T HELP BUT WONDER
IF SATURATION IN SAID LAYERS SHOWN IN FCST SOUNDINGS IS OVERDONE.
HAVE CUT POPS JUST A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE AND WILL KEEP QPF TRIVIAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A VERY
SLOWLY BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE AT
THE SURFACE THERE WILL BE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC
BUT A POORLY DEFINED PATTERN IN THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. OVERALL THIS
WILL FAVOR SLIGHTLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR EVEN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TRIES
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY POSSIBLY ADDING SOME HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES BUT AS MID LEVELS LIKELY STAY DRY PERHAPS NOT
APPRECIABLY SO. A DEEPER AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
MAY DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE PROGRESSES EAST. THIS
MAY REPRESENT OUR BEST RAIN CHANCE OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...VFR THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS AROUND 13Z AND THE COASTAL TERMINALS 14-15Z.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT. CLOUDS/SHOWERS
WILL END NW-SE THROUGH THE MORNING. LITTLE CHANCE OF MVFR BUT IF IT OCCURS
IT WILL BE BRIEF WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT THROUGH THE DAY. VFR/SCT HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS DECREASE TO LIGHT N.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY AROUND
NOON...TURNING WINDS TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE PRECEDING THE FRONT AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING. FORECAST UNCHANGED WITH
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TIL 19Z FOR THE NORTHERN
WATERS WITH A SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE FOR THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. THE GRADIENT JUST AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT IN THE NORTHERLY SURGE WILL BE JUST TIGHT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
SUCH HEADLINES. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS
MORNING...THROUGH MIDDAY...UP TO 20 TO 25 KT. THE WIND DIRECTION
WILL BE SW THIS MORNING...SHIFTING TO N BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL VEER TO NE
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 4 TO 6 FT ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA AND
4 TO 5 FT ELSEWHERE. WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS WILL BE ON A SLIGHT
DOWNWARD TRAJECTORY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE MOVES JUST ABOUT OVERHEAD DURING THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...SOME FAIRLY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS IN
STORE FOR THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON SUNDAY WILL END UP OVER THE COASTLINE BY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO A MORE ONSHORE DIRECTION. THIS GRADUAL
VEERING WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. WHEREAS NORMALLY THIS WOULD BRING WINDS
ALL THE WAY AROUND TO SOUTHWESTERLY IT LOOKS LIKE SOUTHEASTERLY IS
AS FAR AS WE`LL VEER LOCALLY. THE REASON FOR THIS IS A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE CENTER OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...THE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE RATHER
POORLY DEFINED LOCALLY AND ACROSS THE BIGGER PICTURE ON TUESDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOUND ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE WEST
ATLANTIC WILL CAUSE A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT WILL BE
QUITE LIGHT. SWELL ENERGY WILL BE MINIMAL AND SO PREDOMINANT WAVE
HEIGHTS CAPPED AT JUST 2 TO 3 FT. OVER LAND TEMPERATURES WILL GROW
QUITE WARM SO A STRONG SEA BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP LEADING TO A
NEARSHORE AND INLET ROUGHNESS. ABOUT THE ONLY THING THAT CHANGES
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY IS A SLIGHT PULLBACK OF THE RIDGE AXIS BACK
INTO THE OCEAN POSSIBLY VEERING THE LOCAL FLOW BY PERHAPS 30
DEGREES OR LESS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 600 AM SATURDAY...A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR GEORGETOWN...
HORRY...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER AND COASTAL PENDER COUNTIES.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
DIRECTION WILL SHIFT FROM S AND SW TO N IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
THIS MORNING. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE DROPPING...
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON...DOWN TO 25 TO 35 PERCENT...LOWEST
ACROSS MANY OF OUR INLAND COMMUNITIES.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ250-
252.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...REK/MBB
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...REK/MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...REK/RJD/MBB
FIRE WEATHER...RJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
745 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING A
BRIEF PERIOD OF WETTING TO MOST OF THE AREA...MAINLY THIS MORNING.
GUSTY WINDS...UP TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH STRONGER GUSTS...INITIALLY
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND THEN OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE
WORK WEEK. SOME PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A BRIEF COOL DOWN
THIS WEEKEND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WARM UP NEXT WEEK. THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WITH US FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM SATURDAY...LIGHT SHOWERS WERE SPRINTING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND SOME LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED AT SEVERAL
LOCATIONS...BUT FEW STATIONS HAVE MEASURED AS OF YET.
THIS FORECAST IS BIASED IN THE DIRECTION OF THE HRRR MODEL WHICH
SHOWS SUFFICIENT MOISTENING... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA...TO WARRANT CHANCE/GOOD CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BEFORE THE
COLUMN UNDERGOES SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. WE
ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH RAIN HOWEVER...JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS...AND
MANY PLACES MAY JUST RECEIVE A LIGHT AND BRIEF WETTING AND NOT
MEASURE.
GIVEN THE TIMING...AND WITH ALL OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MISSING
WELL TO OUR NORTH...WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL END THIS MORNING...LASTLY AT THE COAST
AROUND MIDDAY. COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
IS IMPRESSIVE FOR EARLY APRILS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS...COMPLIMENTS OF LOW LEVEL JETTING...HAS ALLOWED
TEMPS TO REMAIN ELEVATED. EXPECT TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...PERHAPS FALLING A DEGREE OR TWO AS SOME
OF THE RAIN EVAPORATES AS IT FALLS THROUGH THE COLUMN AND CAUSES
SOME SLIGHT COOLING. TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO VARY MUCH THROUGH
THE DAY AS S TO SW WINDS TURN N THIS MORNING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 70S...PERHAPS A CATEGORY LOWER AT THE BEACHES AS SIGNIFICANT
COLD AIR ADVECTION BATTLES DEVELOPING APRIL SUNSHINE.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE DROPPING...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON...DOWN
TO 25 TO 35 PERCENT...LOWEST ACROSS MANY OF OUR INLAND COMMUNITIES.
SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLOUDY INTO THIS MORNING...BUT CLEARING WILL
COMMENCE FROM W TO E THROUGH THE LATER MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SUNNY...OR MOSTLY SO.
TONIGHT...CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE EVE
AND OVERNIGHT AS WINDS GO LIGHT TO CALM. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FROST TO
THE FORECAST FOR AREAS N OF A FLO TO NEAR EYF TO WATHA LINE. SOIL
TEMPS HAVE REACHED INTO THE 60S NOW AND GIVEN LOWS IN THESE AREAS
WILL ONLY BRIEFLY DROP TO THE MID 30S TOWARD MORNING...EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL NOT EXPERIENCE A FROST...ESPECIALLY GIVEN DEWPOINTS
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SIGNIFICANT DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS. LOWS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...AFTER A CHILLY START SUNDAY WILL FEATURE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND FAIRLY COMFORTABLE ALBEIT STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW
CLIMO TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD KEEPING MIXING SOMEWHAT MARGINALIZED EVEN
THOUGH WARM ADVECTION WILL BE HAPPENING JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE BASED
LAYER. SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OFF THE COAST A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND HELP REALIZE THIS WAA AT THE
SURFACE. AS A RESULT SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLE AND
THEREFORE MUCH LESS CHILLY THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. SIMILARLY MONDAY
WILL OFFER UP SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BUT THERE WILL ALSO BE
INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND SOME RAIN CHANCES SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE GETS A DEEPER
ASCENT BOOST FROM SOME WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES. MUCH OF THE COLUMN
ABOVE ABOUT 700MB REMAINS WESTERLY HOWEVER AND CAN`T HELP BUT WONDER
IF SATURATION IN SAID LAYERS SHOWN IN FCST SOUNDINGS IS OVERDONE.
HAVE CUT POPS JUST A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE AND WILL KEEP QPF TRIVIAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A VERY
SLOWLY BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE AT
THE SURFACE THERE WILL BE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC
BUT A POORLY DEFINED PATTERN IN THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. OVERALL THIS
WILL FAVOR SLIGHTLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR EVEN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TRIES
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY POSSIBLY ADDING SOME HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES BUT AS MID LEVELS LIKELY STAY DRY PERHAPS NOT
APPRECIABLY SO. A DEEPER AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
MAY DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE PROGRESSES EAST. THIS
MAY REPRESENT OUR BEST RAIN CHANCE OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...VFR THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS AROUND 13Z AND THE COASTAL TERMINALS 14-15Z.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT. CLOUDS/SHOWERS
WILL END NW-SE THROUGH THE MORNING. LITTLE CHANCE OF MVFR BUT IF IT OCCURS
IT WILL BE BRIEF WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT THROUGH THE DAY. VFR/SCT HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS DECREASE TO LIGHT N.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM SATURDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TIL
19Z FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS WITH A SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION HEADLINE FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS. THE GRADIENT JUST AHEAD
OF AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN THE NORTHERLY SURGE WILL BE JUST
TIGHT ENOUGH TO WARRANT SUCH HEADLINES. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THIS MORNING...THROUGH MIDDAY...UP TO 20 TO 25 KT. THE
WIND DIRECTION WILL BE SW THIS MORNING...SHIFTING TO N BEHIND THE
FRONT LATE MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL VEER TO
NE TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 4 TO 6 FT ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA
AND 4 TO 5 FT ELSEWHERE. WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS WILL BE ON A SLIGHT
DOWNWARD TRAJECTORY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE MOVES JUST ABOUT OVERHEAD DURING THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...SOME FAIRLY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS IN
STORE FOR THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON SUNDAY WILL END UP OVER THE COASTLINE BY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO A MORE ONSHORE DIRECTION. THIS GRADUAL
VEERING WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. WHEREAS NORMALLY THIS WOULD BRING WINDS
ALL THE WAY AROUND TO SOUTHWESTERLY IT LOOKS LIKE SOUTHEASTERLY IS
AS FAR AS WE`LL VEER LOCALLY. THE REASON FOR THIS IS A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE CENTER OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...THE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE RATHER
POORLY DEFINED LOCALLY AND ACROSS THE BIGGER PICTURE ON TUESDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOUND ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE WEST
ATLANTIC WILL CAUSE A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT WILL BE
QUITE LIGHT. SWELL ENERGY WILL BE MINIMAL AND SO PREDOMINANT WAVE
HEIGHTS CAPPED AT JUST 2 TO 3 FT. OVER LAND TEMPERATURES WILL GROW
QUITE WARM SO A STRONG SEA BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP LEADING TO A
NEARSHORE AND INLET ROUGHNESS. ABOUT THE ONLY THING THAT CHANGES
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY IS A SLIGHT PULLBACK OF THE RIDGE AXIS BACK
INTO THE OCEAN POSSIBLY VEERING THE LOCAL FLOW BY PERHAPS 30
DEGREES OR LESS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 600 AM SATURDAY...A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR GEORGETOWN...
HORRY...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER AND COASTAL PENDER COUNTIES.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
DIRECTION WILL SHIFT FROM S AND SW TO N IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
THIS MORNING. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE DROPPING...
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON...DOWN TO 25 TO 35 PERCENT...LOWEST
ACROSS MANY OF OUR INLAND COMMUNITIES.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ250-
252.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
613 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING A
BRIEF PERIOD OF WETTING TO MOST OF THE AREA...MAINLY THIS MORNING.
GUSTY WINDS...UP TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH STRONGER GUSTS...INITIALLY
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND THEN OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE
WORK WEEK. SOME PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A BRIEF COOL DOWN
THIS WEEKEND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WARM UP NEXT WEEK. THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WITH US FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM SATURDAY...LIGHT SHOWERS WERE SPRINTING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND SOME LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED AT SEVERAL
LOCATIONS...BUT FEW STATIONS HAVE MEASURED AS OF YET.
THIS FORECAST IS BIASED IN THE DIRECTION OF THE HRRR MODEL WHICH
SHOWS SUFFICIENT MOISTENING... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA...TO WARRANT CHANCE/GOOD CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BEFORE THE
COLUMN UNDERGOES SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. WE
ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH RAIN HOWEVER...JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS...AND
MANY PLACES MAY JUST RECEIVE A LIGHT AND BRIEF WETTING AND NOT
MEASURE.
GIVEN THE TIMING...AND WITH ALL OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MISSING
WELL TO OUR NORTH...WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL END THIS MORNING...LASTLY AT THE COAST
AROUND MIDDAY. COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
IS IMPRESSIVE FOR EARLY APRILS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS...COMPLIMENTS OF LOW LEVEL JETTING...HAS ALLOWED
TEMPS TO REMAIN ELEVATED. EXPECT TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...PERHAPS FALLING A DEGREE OR TWO AS SOME
OF THE RAIN EVAPORATES AS IT FALLS THROUGH THE COLUMN AND CAUSES
SOME SLIGHT COOLING. TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO VARY MUCH THROUGH
THE DAY AS S TO SW WINDS TURN N THIS MORNING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 70S...PERHAPS A CATEGORY LOWER AT THE BEACHES AS SIGNIFICANT
COLD AIR ADVECTION BATTLES DEVELOPING APRIL SUNSHINE.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE DROPPING...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON...DOWN
TO 25 TO 35 PERCENT...LOWEST ACROSS MANY OF OUR INLAND COMMUNITIES.
SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLOUDY INTO THIS MORNING...BUT CLEARING WILL
COMMENCE FROM W TO E THROUGH THE LATER MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SUNNY...OR MOSTLY SO.
TONIGHT...CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE EVE
AND OVERNIGHT AS WINDS GO LIGHT TO CALM. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FROST TO
THE FORECAST FOR AREAS N OF A FLO TO NEAR EYF TO WATHA LINE. SOIL
TEMPS HAVE REACHED INTO THE 60S NOW AND GIVEN LOWS IN THESE AREAS
WILL ONLY BRIEFLY DROP TO THE MID 30S TOWARD MORNING...EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL NOT EXPERIENCE A FROST...ESPECIALLY GIVEN DEWPOINTS
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SIGNIFICANT DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS. LOWS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...AFTER A CHILLY START SUNDAY WILL FEATURE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND FAIRLY COMFORTABLE ALBEIT STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW
CLIMO TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD KEEPING MIXING SOMEWHAT MARGINALIZED EVEN
THOUGH WARM ADVECTION WILL BE HAPPENING JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE BASED
LAYER. SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OFF THE COAST A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND HELP REALIZE THIS WAA AT THE
SURFACE. AS A RESULT SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLE AND
THEREFORE MUCH LESS CHILLY THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. SIMILARLY MONDAY
WILL OFFER UP SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BUT THERE WILL ALSO BE
INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND SOME RAIN CHANCES SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE GETS A DEEPER
ASCENT BOOST FROM SOME WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES. MUCH OF THE COLUMN
ABOVE ABOUT 700MB REMAINS WESTERLY HOWEVER AND CAN`T HELP BUT WONDER
IF SATURATION IN SAID LAYERS SHOWN IN FCST SOUNDINGS IS OVERDONE.
HAVE CUT POPS JUST A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE AND WILL KEEP QPF TRIVIAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A VERY
SLOWLY BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE AT
THE SURFACE THERE WILL BE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC
BUT A POORLY DEFINED PATTERN IN THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. OVERALL THIS
WILL FAVOR SLIGHTLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR EVEN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TRIES
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY POSSIBLY ADDING SOME HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES BUT AS MID LEVELS LIKELY STAY DRY PERHAPS NOT
APPRECIABLY SO. A DEEPER AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
MAY DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE PROGRESSES EAST. THIS
MAY REPRESENT OUR BEST RAIN CHANCE OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LIKELY STAYING ABOVE 10 KT MOST OF
THE NIGHT WITH GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT. A MIXTURE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST AROUND 11-13Z. THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...HOWEVER ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AT AND
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE TRENDING SLIGHTLY
WETTER. PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. POST
FRONTAL...LOOK FOR A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST...BY MID
MORNING WITH SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED NORTHERLY
FLOW. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM SATURDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TIL
19Z FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS WITH A SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION HEADLINE FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS. THE GRADIENT JUST AHEAD
OF AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN THE NORTHERLY SURGE WILL BE JUST
TIGHT ENOUGH TO WARRANT SUCH HEADLINES. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THIS MORNING...THROUGH MIDDAY...UP TO 20 TO 25 KT. THE
WIND DIRECTION WILL BE SW THIS MORNING...SHIFTING TO N BEHIND THE
FRONT LATE MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL VEER TO
NE TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 4 TO 6 FT ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA
AND 4 TO 5 FT ELSEWHERE. WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS WILL BE ON A SLIGHT
DOWNWARD TRAJECTORY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE MOVES JUST ABOUT OVERHEAD DURING THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...SOME FAIRLY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS IN
STORE FOR THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON SUNDAY WILL END UP OVER THE COASTLINE BY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO A MORE ONSHORE DIRECTION. THIS GRADUAL
VEERING WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. WHEREAS NORMALLY THIS WOULD BRING WINDS
ALL THE WAY AROUND TO SOUTHWESTERLY IT LOOKS LIKE SOUTHEASTERLY IS
AS FAR AS WE`LL VEER LOCALLY. THE REASON FOR THIS IS A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE CENTER OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...THE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE RATHER
POORLY DEFINED LOCALLY AND ACROSS THE BIGGER PICTURE ON TUESDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOUND ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE WEST
ATLANTIC WILL CAUSE A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT WILL BE
QUITE LIGHT. SWELL ENERGY WILL BE MINIMAL AND SO PREDOMINANT WAVE
HEIGHTS CAPPED AT JUST 2 TO 3 FT. OVER LAND TEMPERATURES WILL GROW
QUITE WARM SO A STRONG SEA BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP LEADING TO A
NEARSHORE AND INLET ROUGHNESS. ABOUT THE ONLY THING THAT CHANGES
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY IS A SLIGHT PULLBACK OF THE RIDGE AXIS BACK
INTO THE OCEAN POSSIBLY VEERING THE LOCAL FLOW BY PERHAPS 30
DEGREES OR LESS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 600 AM SATURDAY...A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR GEORGETOWN...
HORRY...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER AND COASTAL PENDER COUNTIES.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
DIRECTION WILL SHIFT FROM S AND SW TO N IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
THIS MORNING. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE DROPPING...
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON...DOWN TO 25 TO 35 PERCENT...LOWEST
ACROSS MANY OF OUR INLAND COMMUNITIES.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ250-
252.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...RJD/DL
FIRE WEATHER...RJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
324 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH TODAY BRINGING A BRIEF COOLDOWN
THAT SHOULD END ON SUNDAY AT WHICH TIME MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER
SHALL RETURN. MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WILL BRING MILDER
WEATHER BUT ALSO A BIT OF CLOUDINESS AND SLOWLY INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...A FEW LIGHT ECHOS WERE BEGINNING TO WORK INTO OUR
WESTERNMOST ZONES...BUT SUSPECT NO PRECIPITATION IS YET REACHING THE
GROUND GIVEN THE DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER. THIS FORECAST IS BIASED IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE HRRR MODEL WHICH SHOWS SUFFICIENT MOISTENING...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...TO WARRANT
CHANCE/GOOD CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF AND JUST
BEHIND THE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT BEFORE THE COLUMN UNDERGOES
SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
MUCH RAIN HOWEVER...JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS...AND MANY PLACES MAY JUST
RECEIVE A LIGHT AND BRIEF WETTING AND NOT MEASURE.
GIVEN THE TIMING...AND WITH ALL OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MISSING
WELL TO OUR NORTH...WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL END THIS MORNING...LASTLY AT THE COAST
NEAR MIDDAY. COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS
IMPRESSIVE FOR EARLY APRIL. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS...COMPLIMENTS OF LOW LEVEL JETTING...HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO
REMAIN ELEVATED. EXPECT TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY OR RISE A FEW
DEGREES UNTIL PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND THEN NOT VARY MUCH THROUGH
THE DAY AS S TO SW WINDS TURN N THIS MORNING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 70S...PERHAPS A CATEGORY LOWER AT THE BEACHES.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE DROPPING...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON...DOWN
TO 25 TO 35 PERCENT...LOWEST ACROSS MANY OF OUR INLAND COMMUNITIES.
SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLOUDY INTO THIS MORNING...BUT CLEARING WILL
COMMENCE FROM W TO E THROUGH THE LATER MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SUNNY...OR MOSTLY SO.
TONIGHT...CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE EVE
AND OVERNIGHT AS WINDS GO LIGHT TO CALM. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FROST TO
THE FORECAST FOR AREAS N OF A FLO TO NEAR EYF TO WATHA LINE. SOIL
TEMPS HAVE REACHED INTO THE 60S NOW AND GIVEN LOWS IN THESE AREAS
WILL ONLY BRIEFLY DROP TO THE MID 30S TOWARD MORNING...EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL NOT EXPERIENCE A FROST...ESPECIALLY GIVEN DEWPOINTS
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SIGNIFICANT DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS. LOWS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...AFTER A CHILLY START SUNDAY WILL FEATURE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND FAIRLY COMFORTABLE ALBEIT STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW
CLIMO TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD KEEPING MIXING SOMEWHAT MARGINALIZED EVEN
THOUGH WARM ADVECTION WILL BE HAPPENING JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE BASED
LAYER. SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OFF THE COAST A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND HELP REALIZE THIS WAA AT THE
SURFACE. AS A RESULT SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLE AND
THEREFORE MUCH LESS CHILLY THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. SIMILARLY MONDAY
WILL OFFER UP SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BUT THERE WILL ALSO BE
INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND SOME RAIN CHANCES SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE GETS A DEEPER
ASCENT BOOST FROM SOME WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES. MUCH OF THE COLUMN
ABOVE ABOUT 700MB REMAINS WESTERLY HOWEVER AND CAN`T HELP BUT WONDER
IF SATURATION IN SAID LAYERS SHOWN IN FCST SOUNDINGS IS OVERDONE.
HAVE CUT POPS JUST A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE AND WILL KEEP QPF TRIVIAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A VERY SLOWLY
BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE THERE WILL BE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC BUT A
POORLY DEFINED PATTERN IN THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. OVERALL THIS WILL
FAVOR SLIGHTLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
EVEN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TRIES TO APPROACH
FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY POSSIBLY ADDING SOME HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
BUT AS MID LEVELS LIKELY STAY DRY PERHAPS NOT APPRECIABLY SO. A
DEEPER AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MAY DEVELOP ON
FRIDAY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE PROGRESSES EAST. THIS MAY REPRESENT
OUR BEST RAIN CHANCE OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LIKELY STAYING ABOVE 10 KT MOST OF THE
NIGHT WITH GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT. A MIXTURE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST AROUND 11-13Z. THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...HOWEVER
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AT AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE TRENDING SLIGHTLY WETTER. PREDOMINATELY
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. POST FRONTAL...LOOK FOR A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTH NORTHWEST...BY MID MORNING WITH SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS
PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TIL 19Z
FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS WITH A SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINE FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS. THE GRADIENT JUST AHEAD OF AND
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN THE NORTHERLY SURGE WILL BE JUST TIGHT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT SUCH HEADLINES. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THIS MORNING...THROUGH MIDDAY...UP TO 20 TO 25 KT. THE WIND
DIRECTION WILL BE SW THIS MORNING...SHIFTING TO N BEHIND THE FRONT
LATE MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL VEER TO NE
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 4 TO 6 FT ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA AND 4
TO 5 FT ELSEWHERE. WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS WILL BE ON A SLIGHT DOWNWARD
TRAJECTORY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS APPROACHING HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES JUST ABOUT OVERHEAD DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...SOME FAIRLY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS IN STORE
FOR THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY WILL END UP OVER THE COASTLINE BY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO A MORE ONSHORE DIRECTION. THIS GRADUAL VEERING
WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
MOVES OFFSHORE. WHEREAS NORMALLY THIS WOULD BRING WINDS ALL THE WAY
AROUND TO SOUTHWESTERLY IT LOOKS LIKE SOUTHEASTERLY IS AS FAR AS
WE`LL VEER LOCALLY. THE REASON FOR THIS IS A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE CENTER OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...THE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE RATHER POORLY
DEFINED LOCALLY AND ACROSS THE BIGGER PICTURE ON TUESDAY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE FOUND ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE WEST ATLANTIC
WILL CAUSE A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.
SWELL ENERGY WILL BE MINIMAL AND SO PREDOMINANT WAVE HEIGHTS
CAPPED AT JUST 2 TO 3 FT. OVER LAND TEMPERATURES WILL GROW QUITE
WARM SO A STRONG SEA BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP LEADING TO A NEARSHORE
AND INLET ROUGHNESS. ABOUT THE ONLY THING THAT CHANGES HEADING
INTO WEDNESDAY IS A SLIGHT PULLBACK OF THE RIDGE AXIS BACK INTO
THE OCEAN POSSIBLY VEERING THE LOCAL FLOW BY PERHAPS 30 DEGREES OR
LESS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ250-
252.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...RJD/DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
144 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...
BRINGING A RISK FOR SHOWERS. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM UP THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 935 PM FRIDAY...LATEST MODEL TIME HEIGHT AND SOUNDING
DISPLAYS INDICATE A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET...FROM THE SW AT 35 TO
45 MPH...THAT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD...MODELS ALSO INDICATE THE SFC PG
TIGHTENING-SOME AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THEREFORE...
OVERALL...SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN ACTIVE ALL NIGHT LONG WITH THE
OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE GUSTS A RESULT OF THE MIXING OF THE HIER
WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK DOWN TO THE SFC. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL RUN
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...NOT TOO FAR FROM CURRENT VALUES. THE BEST
DYNAMICS ALOFT FOR OVERNIGHT PCPN WILL BYPASS THE ILM CWA TO OUR
NW THRU N TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAVE MAINLY FRONTAL DYNAMICS TO
PLAY WITH FOR PCPN DEVELOPMENT. SOME SCOURING OF THE OVERALL
MOISTURE THRU THE ATM TO OCCUR AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT
ONCE IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS AND HEADS TOWARD THE
COAST. POPS TO CONTINUE IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE HEADING TOWARD
SUNRISE MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA...ROUGHLY WEST
OF I-95 CORRIDOR. WILL CONTINUE TO NEGLECT THUNDER DUE TO
UNFAVORABLE MODEL TSTORM PARAMETERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...12Z GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT
WITH THE MORNING PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF
THE WESTERN CWA AROUND 12Z AND MOVE OFF THE COAST BY NOON. UPPER-
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION WILL PASS MOSTLY TO THE NORTH...BUT
LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED ACROSS THE AREA AS A 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET
CROSSES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 40-50
PERCENT RANGE TO REFLECT THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE EXPECTED
CONVECTION. THIS WILL BE A LOW QPF EVENT WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED
TO RECEIVE A FEW HUNDREDTHS.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT MID TO LATE MORNING IN THE WEST
AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST. THE DIURNAL CURVE WILL BE
DAMPENED ACROSS THE INTERIOR CWA DUE TO MORNING FROPA...AND EXPECT
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF 70.
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY
NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. MOST OF THE AREA
WILL SEE TEMPS FALL INTO A 35-40 DEGREE RANGE...BUT LOW-LYING
SPOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA WILL BE COLDER AND
SHOULD EXPECT PATCHY FROST TO DEVELOP IN THE FEW HOURS BEFORE
SUNRISE SUNDAY.
ZONAL FLOW WILL USHER THE SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE SUNDAY WITH EAST
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING. A VERY DRY COLUMN WILL KEEP SKIES
CLEAR INTO SUNDAY EVENING...BUT MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE EFFECTS OF COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMS. RETURN FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOW 50S
SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL POINTS TO A GENERAL
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH MORE EMPHASIS ON SOUTHWEST
LATE IN THE PERIOD. REGARDING SURFACE FEATURES...BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER WITH A SUMMERTIME SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILING MOST OF THE TIME. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP MONDAY AND DISSIPATE TUESDAY AS WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC TAKES PRECEDENCE. A WEAK BOUNDARY MAKES A
RUN TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY BUT QUICKLY FADES AS WELL. OVERALL POPS
ARE IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY AND ALTHOUGH DIFFICULT TO DISCERN WHEN
THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE...MONDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SEEM TO BE
THE BEST BETS WHEN WEAK BOUNDARIES ARE IN THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE RATHER WARM WITH HIGHS AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ECLIPSING 80 AND
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LIKELY STAYING ABOVE 10 KT MOST OF THE
NIGHT WITH GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT. A MIXTURE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST AROUND 11-13Z. THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...HOWEVER
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AT AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE TRENDING SLIGHTLY WETTER. PREDOMINATELY
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. POST FRONTAL...LOOK FOR A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTH NORTHWEST...BY MID MORNING WITH SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS
PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 PM FRIDAY...SSW-SW WINDS ARE FINALLY BEGINNING TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS...VIA OCPN7 AND MROS1 AND JMPN7 AREA
PIERS. A BIT SLOWER FARTHER OFFSHORE...BUT NEVERTHELESS THEY TOO
WILL BEGIN INCREASING. EXPECT SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE SSW-SW UP TO 15 TO 25 KT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT DURING THE PRE-DAWN SAT HOURS. WITH WINDS
30-40 KT JUST OFF THE DECK...SHOULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS REACH 30+
KT AT THE OCEAN SFC. CURRENT SIGNIFICANT SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT
RANGE...WILL BE IN A BUILDING PHASE THRU THE PRE-DAWN SAT
HOURS...AND LIKELY REACH 3 TO 5 FT...EXCEPT UP TO 6 FT OUTER
WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR BY DAYBREAK SAT. SHORT PERIOD WIND DRIVEN
WAVES WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS...WITH AVERAGE PERIODS
BETWEEN 4.5 AND 5.0 SECONDS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF
THE COAST AROUND NOON. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER. WILL
ALSO ADD MENTION OF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR SOUTHERN
WATERS SATURDAY MORNING.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY
POST-FRONTAL WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WILL VEER TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...GENERALLY A SUMMER LIKE PATTERN FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS NEXT WEEK. SOUTH TO MOSTLY SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15
KNOTS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
THE PRIMARY FEATURE. AN INCREASE IN THE BENIGN PRESSURE PATTERN TO
THE WEST TURNS THE WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY WITH SIMILAR
SPEEDS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...CRM
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...RJD/DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PENDLETON OR
746 PM PDT SUN APR 5 2015
.UPDATE...UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST WILL DIG SLOWLY SEWD INTO
CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL
PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
SNOW LEVELS WILL SLOWLY RISE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WELL WITH
SNOW CONFINED TO ELEVATIONS MAINLY ABOVE 4500 FEET BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. FOR THIS EVENING THERE REMAINS SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THE
RADAR BUT LIGHTNING HAS DIMINISHED. THUS HAVE JUST RELEASED A
FORECAST UPDATE TO DROP THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
ALSO DROPPED THE SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE OREGON EAST SLOPES. THERE
WILL BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT BUT THE HRRR REFLECTIVITY
FIELDS HAVE BEEN VERY UNIMPRESSIVE AND THIS IS CORROBORATED BY THE
LATEST NAM. 78
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS AT KBDN AND KRDM MAY PRODUCE MVFR VSBYS
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT CEILINGS MOSTLY ABOVE 4 THOUSAND FEET AGL.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT BUT BECOME S-SW AT 5 TO 15 KT MONDAY
AFTERNOON. 78
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 37 51 35 56 / 60 60 20 30
ALW 36 52 36 59 / 50 60 20 20
PSC 39 56 35 61 / 40 60 20 20
YKM 35 53 36 56 / 30 70 30 30
HRI 38 56 35 60 / 40 60 20 20
ELN 33 53 33 55 / 30 60 30 40
RDM 29 47 32 49 / 60 30 50 60
LGD 29 47 31 53 / 60 60 20 30
GCD 29 45 30 51 / 50 40 30 50
DLS 36 57 38 60 / 60 50 40 40
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
78
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
907 AM PDT SAT APR 4 2015
.DISCUSSION...MADE A FEW MINOR UPDATES FOR TODAY TO REFLECT THE
CURRENT HRRR OUTPUT FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ONE WAS TO ADD A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST LAKE AND KLAMATH
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z NAM SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
EAST OF THE CASCADES. ALSO THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND ARE MOVING EAST
TO NORTHEAST. THEREFORE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG
THE COAST...COAST RANGE AND PARTS OF DOUGLAS COUNTY.
THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A LARGE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST IN CENTRAL B.C. WILL
MOVE SOUTH AND IMPACT OUR WEATHER STARTING LATE TONIGHT. THE
MODELS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPIATION REACHING THE COAST
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, THEN SPREADING INLAND DURING THE DAY. IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. THE MODELS INDICATE THERE MAY BE
A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER OVERNIGHT SUNDAY, BUT PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING TOO MUCH AT NIGHT IN THE SHASTA VALLEY. CURRENTLY THERE IS
A FREEZE WATCH FOR THIS AREA IN THE EVENT THERE`S ENOUGH CLEARING.
-PETRUCELLI
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 04/12Z TAF CYCLE...IFR CIGS WITH OCCASIONAL
LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE AT THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN UNTIL
MID MORNING WITH TERRAIN AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. CIGS WILL
THEN SCATTER OUT AS MID LEVELS DRY BEHIND THE FRONT. AREAS MVFR CIGS
WILL REMAIN IN THE ROGUE VALLEY THROUGH MID MORNING AS WELL AS
SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS EXTEND EAST OF THE
CASCADES WITH TERRAIN AND MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. /FB
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT SATURDAY 04 APR 2015...A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BECOME STEEP AND REACH
ADVISORY LEVELS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMS WEST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THIS LOW
TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST, WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, POSSIBLY ABOVE
ADVISORY LEVEL. WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF
THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES, THUS THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. /FB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM PDT SAT APR 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN STRUNG OUT ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING, MOST OF THE
MID AND HIGH LEVEL VARIETY. WE`RE LOOKING AT MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY, EXCEPT FOR A SHOWER HERE OR
THERE...MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING...THEN THE COAST AND
PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE/NORCAL THIS AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE
SOME SUNNY INTERVALS AS WELL. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT AROUND WHERE THEY SHOULD BE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR DEPICTIONS OF A
POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD OFFSHORE TONIGHT THROUGH
EASTER SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL GENERATE A COOL, SHOWERY PATTERN
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. PVA IN ADVANCE OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS EVENING, WHICH WILL THEN SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EAST SIDE OVERNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
LOW ENOUGH THERE TO PRODUCE SNOW DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOORS IN
MANY AREAS, BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT...GENERALLY JUST AN INCH
OR TWO. A BAND OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL
ALSO MOVE ONTO THE COAST OVERNIGHT. SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEST SIDE SUNDAY AS COLD AIR ALOFT (-30 TO
-33C AT 500 MB) ARRIVES. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS
AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH GRAUPEL/SMALL
HAIL JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. AN AREA OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION MOVING
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON MAY LEAD TO A SMALL ACCUMULATION OF
SNOW ON THE MAJOR PASSES OF I-5 SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. RIGHT
NOW, AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY,
BUT THOSE TRAVELING SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR WINTER DRIVING
CONDITIONS.
WE`LL GET A SHORT BREAK LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
SURFACE RIDGING DEVELOPING IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SHOWERS SHOULD
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE FIRST
SHORT WAVE EXITS TO THE EAST AND NORTH. WE DON`T EXPECT MUCH
CLEARING, BUT THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH IN PORTIONS OF THE
SHASTA VALLEY FOR FREEZING CONDITIONS AND A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THIS RISK AT NPWMFR.
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A STRONGER SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE SOUTHWEST OREGON/NW CALIFORNIA COAST
ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM BEARS WATCHING AS IT MAY PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. IT
APPEARS TO DO A LOOP JUST OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY CATCHES UP AND DIGS INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY
TUESDAY. THE GFS IS STILL A BIT OF AN OUTLIER WITH RESPECT TO ITS
ADVANCEMENT OF A BAND OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...GIVING MOUNT SHASTA CITY A 6-12 HOUR SHOT OF VERY
HEAVY SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE NOT QUITE SO
BULLISH, SO HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND FOR NOW. WE ARE STILL SHOWING
ABOUT 6 INCHES OF SNOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOR MOUNT SHASTA
CITY, SO WINTER HEADLINES ARE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY WITH THIS
EVENT. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS, THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP CUT OFF TO STEADIER PRECIPITATION NORTH OF
THE OR/CA BORDER, BUT WE STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT WINDS SHOULD INCREASE
THROUGH THE SHASTA VALLEY AND ALSO OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE
MONDAY. GRADIENTS ARE NOT ALL THAT STRONG, BUT THERE IS A PERIOD
OF INCREASED 700 MB FLOW AROUND 50 KT MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING THAT MAY LEAD TO ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS NEAR WEED.
THE UPPER LOW WILL SWING INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TUESDAY
KEEPING THE SHOWERY PATTERN GOING, BUT THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL EASE AS THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT DECREASE.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH. NO CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. SPILDE
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
CAZ081-281.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370-376.
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
651 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2015
.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Stratus along an Abilene to Brady to east of Junction line this
afternoon will move back west this evening. Ceilings initially will
start off as MVFR but fall to IFR overnight. IFR/MVFR stratus will
lift to MVFR/VFR early Monday afternoon.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2015/
SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)
Main concern with this package is with the threat for a few
thunderstorms across Crockett County tonight and areas to the
east.
A couple of storms have formed in the Davis Mountains and they are
moving east. The models did show a jet max moving across West Texas
tonight, placing WC TX in the favored right rear entrance region.
This upper level jet max combined with the increasing low level jet
could sustain convection tonight. Although the latest HRRR run
progged a large area of convection moving into the southern half of
WC TX overnight, still have low confidence since all of the other
models showed nothing. Will continue slight chance Pops for
thunderstorms mainly across Crockett County tonight. If this
convection persists, the Pops may have to be adjusted east and
northeast.
Expect the low clouds across the east to slowly erode through the
early evening. With plenty of low level gulf moisture across the
region, expect low clouds to develop overnight.
As the low clouds burn off tomorrow afternoon, temperatures will
quickly warm mostly into the mid and upper 80s. The models show the
dryline setting up west of Crockett County across the Trans Pecos
region. Model soundings show a strong cap through 6 PM tomorrow and
this should keep any convection from forming.
26
LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow night through Sunday)
The main concern through the extended forecast is the potential for
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday, and toward the latter part of
the week for much of West Central Texas. Monday afternoon/evening
the dryline will set up across our western border. Showers and
thunderstorms may develop during the evening hours, mainly across
the Trans Pecos region of West Texas. A few of these storms may
drift into mainly Crockett County during the evening hours, where
slight chance PoPs are included. On Tuesday, the dryline will once
again move east to about our western boundary, during the late
afternoon/early evening. At this time, the cap looks to dominate,
with little to no convection developing. An isolated thunderstorms
will be possible if we are able to break the cap, but the forecast
was kept dry for now.
Models are in fairly good agreement showing the next upper level
low/trough centered across Utah/Colorado on Wednesday, then tracking
across the Central Plains Thursday. Ahead of this feature, a dryline
is forecast to move east to near our western border late Wednesday
afternoon/evening. Enough afternoon heating (highs in the mid 80s to
low 90s) and lift from the upper level trough should allow for the
development of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms,
mainly during the late afternoon/evening, then moving across the
area overnight. The ECMWF continues to be much drier than both the
GFS/Canadian, but geared the forecast closer to the wetter GFS. A
fairly unstable atmosphere will lie along and ahead of the dryline,
with SBCAPE values generally in the 1500-2500 J/KG range and 0-6 KM
shear values in the 35 to 50 knot range. Strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible, with large hail and damaging winds
being the main hazards at this time.
With the passage of the upper level trough, a cold front will move
through West Central Texas on Thursday. Slightly cooler temperatures
are forecast Thursday into the weekend, with highs generally in the
mid 70s to low 80s. The next upper level low across the Pacific
Ocean will then begin to approach California, with West Central
Texas in southwest flow aloft. Intermittent disturbances may result
in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, Friday into next
weekend, and this is reflected in the grids. The aforementioned
upper level low will eventually tack across West Texas or New
Mexico, which may bring an increasing chance of showers and
thunderstorms for late in the weekend or early next week.
Daniels
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 65 88 66 89 66 / 10 10 10 10 10
San Angelo 64 87 66 89 66 / 10 5 10 10 10
Junction 66 83 68 84 66 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1131 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
.UPDATE...
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
VIS SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SOME BREAKS ACROSS THE
AREA. COLD FRONT WELL OFF THE COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
MIDWEST. NE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE SLOWLY TODAY AND TURN SE
TOMORROW. EXPECT CLOUD COVER AND COLD ADVECTION TO KEEP MAX TEMPS
IN THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA. IN OTHER WORDS TEMPS WON`T BUDGE MUCH
FROM CURRENT TRENDS. ONLY CHANGES TO THE GRIDS WERE TO LOWER RAIN
CHANCES TO 20 PERCENT. OVERALL DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH
PRECIP BUT COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING.
39
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 726 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2015/
AVIATION...
MOSTLY OVERCAST MORNING WILL IMPROVE LITTLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
..PRIMARILY VFR WITH OCCANSIONAL PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS.
MORNING LINE OF NORTHERN PRECIPITATION FOCUSING ON THE MID-LEVEL
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH ANTICIPATED WEST-SOUTHWEST SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES MOVING UP INTO EASTERN TEXAS`S MOIST ENVIRONMENT.
THESE DISTURBANCES MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE VICINITY OF WHAT MAY BECOME THE INLAND MOVEMENT OF LATE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY WARM FRONT. HIGHER CHANCES OF MORE
WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR SUNDAY MORNING SOUTH OF
THE WARM FRONT THAT WILL ADVANCE INLAND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE DAY. 31
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 456 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST. EAST-WEST ORIENTED LINE OF SHOWERS
AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE FOUND ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. WILL NEED TO KEEP LOW POPS IN TODAY`S FORECAST FOR THE AREA
AS LATEST HRRR SHOWS NORTHERN ACTIVITY SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THERE ARE WEAK MID/UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES OFF TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE STATE THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL CARRY SOME POPS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS PATTERN. TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...
THEN A WARM UP IS STILL ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY AS WINDS COME BACK AROUND
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST. THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRIER...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE IN A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE AND
END OF THE WEEK. IT WILL STAY ON THE WARM SIDE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S. A SLOW MOVING FRONT COULD BE ENTERING
OUR AREA IN A FRIDAY- SATURDAY TIME FRAME...AND THAT MIGHT END UP
BEING OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN. 42
MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT PASSED OFF THE COAST A COUPLE OF HOURS PAST
MIDNIGHT...CAUTION WINDS OVER THE LOCAL BAYS AND ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS OVER THE GULF. STRONG NORTHEASTERLIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS...WEAKENING AND VEERING ONSHORE SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT SUNDAY. THE PRESSURE PATTERN OF EASTERN U.S HIGH PRESSURE
AND LOWERED TEXAS PANHANDLE PRESSURES WILL MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLIES WILL
GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS...OVER AVERAGE 3 TO 4 FOOT
NEARSHORE - 4 TO 5 FOOT WAVE HEIGHTS. 31
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 67 56 74 65 82 / 20 40 40 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 67 57 76 66 82 / 20 30 40 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 68 65 76 68 76 / 20 30 30 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT
20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
726 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
.AVIATION...
MOSTLY OVERCAST MORNING WILL IMPROVE LITTLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
...PRIMARILY VFR WITH OCCANSIONAL PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS.
MORNING LINE OF NORTHERN PRECIPITATION FOCUSING ON THE MID-LEVEL
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH ANTICIPATED WEST-SOUTHWEST SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES MOVING UP INTO EASTERN TEXAS`S MOIST ENVIRONMENT.
THESE DISTURBANCES MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE VICINITY OF WHAT MAY BECOME THE INLAND MOVEMENT OF LATE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY WARM FRONT. HIGHER CHANCES OF MORE
WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR SUNDAY MORNING SOUTH OF
THE WARM FRONT THAT WILL ADVANCE INLAND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE DAY. 31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 456 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST. EAST-WEST ORIENTED LINE OF SHOWERS
AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE FOUND ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. WILL NEED TO KEEP LOW POPS IN TODAY`S FORECAST FOR THE AREA
AS LATEST HRRR SHOWS NORTHERN ACTIVITY SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THERE ARE WEAK MID/UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES OFF TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE STATE THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL CARRY SOME POPS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS PATTERN. TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...
THEN A WARM UP IS STILL ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY AS WINDS COME BACK AROUND
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST. THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRIER...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE IN A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE AND
END OF THE WEEK. IT WILL STAY ON THE WARM SIDE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S. A SLOW MOVING FRONT COULD BE ENTERING
OUR AREA IN A FRIDAY- SATURDAY TIME FRAME...AND THAT MIGHT END UP
BEING OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN. 42
MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT PASSED OFF THE COAST A COUPLE OF HOURS PAST
MIDNIGHT...CAUTION WINDS OVER THE LOCAL BAYS AND ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS OVER THE GULF. STRONG NORTHEASTERLIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS...WEAKENING AND VEERING ONSHORE SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT SUNDAY. THE PRESSURE PATTERN OF EASTERN U.S HIGH PRESSURE
AND LOWERED TEXAS PANHANDLE PRESSURES WILL MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLIES WILL
GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS...OVER AVERAGE 3 TO 4 FOOT
NEARSHORE - 4 TO 5 FOOT WAVE HEIGHTS. 31
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 67 56 74 65 82 / 30 40 40 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 67 57 76 66 82 / 30 30 40 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 68 65 76 68 76 / 30 30 30 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT
20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
456 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST. EAST-WEST ORIENTED LINE OF SHOWERS
AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE FOUND ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. WILL NEED TO KEEP LOW POPS IN TODAY`S FORECAST FOR THE AREA
AS LATEST HRRR SHOWS NORTHERN ACTIVITY SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THERE ARE WEAK MID/UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES OFF TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE STATE THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL CARRY SOME OOPS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS PATTERN. TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...
THEN A WARM UP IS STILL ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY AS WINDS COME BACK AROUND
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST. THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRIER...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE IN A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE AND END
OF THE WEEK. IT WILL STAY ON THE WARM SIDE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S. A SLOW MOVING FRONT COULD BE ENTERING OUR
AREA IN A FRIDAY-SATURDAY TIMEFRAME...AND THAT MIGHT END UP BEING
OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN. 42
&&
.MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT PASSED OFF THE COAST A COUPLE OF HOURS PAST
MIDNIGHT...CAUTION WINDS OVER THE LOCAL BAYS AND ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS OVER THE GULF. STRONG NORTHEASTERLIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS...WEAKENING AND VEERING ONSHORE SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT SUNDAY. THE PRESSURE PATTERN OF EASTERN U.S HIGH PRESSURE
AND LOWERED TEXAS PANHANDLE PRESSURES WILL MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLIES WILL
GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS...OVER AVERAGE 3 TO 4 FOOT
NEARSHORE - 4 TO 5 FOOT WAVE HEIGHTS. 31
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 67 56 74 65 82 / 30 40 40 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 67 57 76 66 82 / 30 30 40 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 68 65 76 68 76 / 30 30 30 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT
20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT
TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1239 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...PREDOMINATE MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT MAY RESULT IN
BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES. MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY.
LIGHT RAIN/ISOLD SHOWERS ANTICIPATED SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
DISSIPATING. EXPECT PCPN TO RESUME FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACRS THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. BREEZY NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTN BEFORE DISSIPATING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 918 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2015/
DISCUSSION...
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER FROPA THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST. LOOKS LIKE THE
FRONT...WHICH SHOWS UP VERY NICELY ON AREA RADARS...WILL ENTER
THE NORTHERN CWA BY 04Z AND EXIT THE SOUTH BY 10Z. COULD STILL SEE
SOME CONVECTION AS THE FRONT ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY DEEP MSTR BUT
THE 00Z KCRP SOUNDING DEPICTS A PRETTY STOUT CAP ABV H8 SO CVRG
WILL BE VERY LIMITED. BEHIND THE FRONT WE WILL SEE ISENTROPIC LIFT
SLOWLY INCREASE EVENTUALLY KICKING OFF SHOWERS ACRS THE AREA. ALL
IN ALL THE CURRENT FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
SCA CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT. NO
CHANGES ANTICIPATED TO THE EXISTING SCA PRODUCT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2015/
DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...MAIN ISSUES ARE THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE CIGS
AND RAIN POSSIBLE NEAR IT AND BEHIND IT. OVERALL...AM NOT
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSED WITH THE RAIN CHANCES EXCEPT AT KLRD WHERE
STORMS WHICH COULD DEVELOP IN THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS DUE TO
OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT WOULD MOVE TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE AND IMPACT
THAT TERMINAL. IN KLRD...DO HAVE VCTS STARTING AT 04Z WITH TEMPO
THUNDER BEFORE FROPA TIL 08Z (THEN SHOWERS). FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS...THINK CAP WILL PRECLUDE THUNDER (OR PROBABILITY TOO
LOW) SO DO HAVE VCSH FOR TIMING OF FROPA...ABOUT 04Z AT KVCT...07Z
AT KALI AND 08Z AT KCRP (BASED ROUGHLY ON HRRR OUTPUT)...PRODUCING
GUSTY NNE WINDS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THINK CIGS WILL BECOME MVFR
OUTSIDE OF RAIN WITH TEMPO IFR FOR SHOWERS WITH AND NEAR FROPA
(THINK GFS-MOS IS TOO PESSIMISTIC OVERALL CONSIDERING CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. BEHIND FRONT...WILL MAINTAIN VCSH AND MVFR WITH WEAK
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THE MORNING AND IFR CIGS IN THE AFTERNOON AS
UPGLIDE GETS A BIT BETTER (BUT STILL NOT A LOT OF RAIN BUT BETTER
CHANCE AT KLRD). WINDS DIMINISH MID/LATE MORNING AS WELL.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE REGION IS STILL FAIRLY CAPPED WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION THUS FAR THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES
MODELS GENERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING...MAINLY AFTER 03Z. MODELS
HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WITH IT NEARLY THROUGH THE
AREA BY 09Z AND HAVE ADJUSTED WIND GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. COLD FRONT
WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH ISENTROPIC PATTERN
BECOMING ESTABLISHED. THIS WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES
BOTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE AREA...WITH POPS
PRIMARILY IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE. CLOUD COVER...RAIN
CHANCES AND THE NE WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL
ON SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN 60S...WITH SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING IT MAY NOT REACH 60 OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH E AND SE FLOW RETURNING.
MARINE...STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. WINDS OVER THE BAYS WILL AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH STRONGER
WINDS OVER THE GULF WATERS. SCA CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE
BAYS AND WATERWAYS SATURDAY MORNING...BUT PERSIST OVER THE GULF
WATERS UNTIL 00Z.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...ISENTROPIC LIFT PATTERN
REMAINS IN PLACE TO START THE PERIOD WITH 25-30KTS OF FLOW ON
SUNDAY. MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH IN THE MORNING BUT WILL BE DECREASING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SO HAVE DROPPED POPS FROM 30 IN THE AM TO 20
IN THE PM. BY SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRYING OUT. HIGHS MAINLY BACK
IN THE 70S FOR SUNDAY AND THEN INTO THE 80S FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. NEXT UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM APPROACHED BY MID WEEK. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES LOOK TO
POSSIBLY BRING SOME SHOWERS/STORMS TO SOUTH TEXAS BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT. WILL NOT MAKE ANY BIG DECISIONS WITH
REGARD TO THAT FRONT YET...BUT HAVE BROAD BRUSHED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 68 63 78 67 80 / 30 40 30 10 10
VICTORIA 67 62 79 66 80 / 30 40 30 10 10
LAREDO 62 55 83 67 88 / 50 50 30 10 10
ALICE 67 61 81 66 83 / 40 40 30 10 10
ROCKPORT 67 64 75 68 77 / 30 30 30 10 10
COTULLA 63 56 81 65 85 / 50 50 30 10 10
KINGSVILLE 67 62 81 67 82 / 40 40 30 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 69 65 75 68 77 / 30 40 30 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT
THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM
BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS
FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60
NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
O`CONNOR.
&&
$$
WC/87...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1146 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SE TX OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES. LATER
TONIGHT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES BRINGING MORE SHOWERS TO KCLL AND KUTS TOWARD MORNING. THE
RAP AND HRRR ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH RAIN THAN THE NAM AND GFS.
NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE WITH REGARD TO CIGS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY SO
STAYED CLOSE TO PREV TAF PACKAGE WHICH BRINGS MVFR CIGS TO ALL TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT. VFR CIGS POSSIBLE BY SAT AFTN WITH MORE MVFR COGS
DEVELOPING SAT NITE. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2015/
UPDATE...
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS SLOW MARCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS
THIS EVENING. SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION OF THE FRONT /VISIBLE ON THE
KHGX RADAR STRETCHING FROM ROUGHLY COLUMBUS TO THE WOODLANDS TO
LIVINGSTON AS OF 9:30 PM CDT/ PLACES THE FRONT ALONG THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST SOMETIME BETWEEN 1 AND 3 AM CDT. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT HAS BEEN LIMITED /7 PM CDT
AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS OUT OF HOUSTON SHOWING A CAPPING INVERSION
BETWEEN 800-700 MB/... BUT ISOLATED CELLS THAT HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
DEVELOP THIS EVENING HAVE DONE LITTLE MORE THAN PRODUCE SOME BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH POSSIBLE... WITH RAP/HRRR AND LATEST 00Z
GUIDANCE INDICATING ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF SHOWERS EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING WITH WEAK OVERRUNNING IN PLACE. MAIN FORECAST
UPDATES CENTERED AROUND BUMPING UP OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES
BASED ON SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER.
HUFFMAN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2015/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 55 67 56 74 65 / 30 20 40 40 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 60 67 57 76 66 / 30 20 30 30 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 63 68 65 76 68 / 30 20 20 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
60 NM.
&&
$$
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
427 AM CDT MON APR 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
HAVE ALREADY SEEN DEWPOINTS AROUND THE STATE INCREASE CLOSE TO 20
DEGREES IN THE PAST TWENTY FOUR HOURS. MOISTURE CONTINUED TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG DISSIPATING.
WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE STATE TODAY.
FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH THE STATE BY 00Z. A GENERALLY CAPPED
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE IN PLACE AROUND THE STATE ON MONDAY...LIMITING
ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...NAM/ARW/NMM/HRRR MODEL
SOUNDINGS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS DO SUGGEST THE CAP
WOULD ERODE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH
THE NAM BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN THIS SOLUTION. CONVERSELY...THE GFS
IS A BIT COOLER AND DRIER AT THE SURFACE AND SUGGESTS THE CAP WILL
HOLD TOUGH. CURRENT FORECAST HAS SURFACE TEMPS/DEWPOINTS A BIT
CLOSER TO THE NAM SOLUTION...THEREFORE WILL INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE. 05Z HRRR ALSO BEGINS TO SUGGEST
SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR IN SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WITH
THE 06Z CONTINUING THIS TREND. IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP IN
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THEY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. PORTIONS OF SW ARKANSAS
WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO SEE SE WINDS...INCREASING HELICITY. LCL
HEIGHTS ARE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE...BUT STILL LOW ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A TORNADO TO FORM. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE QUITE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE...AND THERE EXISTS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS.
TUESDAY WILL ALSO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE STATE WITH YET ANOTHER CAPPED ENVIRONMENT
IN PLACE. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER ON TUESDAY...BUT AT
THIS POINT ARE JUST BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLD...BUT WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE OVER ARKANSAS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO COOL ALOFT RESULTING IN THE CAP BEGINNING TO WEAKEN.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL STILL REMAIN
WELL TO THE WEST OF THE STATE...KEEPING BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS. A FEW STORMS COULD HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...BUT THIS WOULD GENERALLY BE ACROSS
EXTREME WESTERN ARKANSAS.
&&
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE GOING FORECAST. WHILE THE SMALL DETAILS MAY
VARY A BIT...THE OVERALL PICTURE REMAINS THE SAME. AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY...AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
WITH THE FRONT...SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
COULD BE SEVERE. AT THIS POINT...ALL MODES LOOK POSSIBLE...WITH THE
HIGHEST THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE EXTENT OF
THE THREAT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH THINGS DESTABILIZE OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. ALSO...ANY STRONGER STORMS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
APPROACHING TWO INCHES.
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION AROUND FRIDAY MORNING.
RETAINED SMALL RAIN CHANCES BEHIND THE FRONT...AS THE MODELS TEND TO
PUSH SYSTEMS OUT OF THE REGION A BIT FAST THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
FRONT WILL STALL OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION...BEFORE BACKING TO
THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AROUND SUNDAY...WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING. IT IS LOOKING LIKE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE A POSSIBILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL...AND
FORECAST TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
&&
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 69 62 78 64 / 30 20 20 20
CAMDEN AR 78 63 80 65 / 40 10 10 10
HARRISON AR 72 60 78 62 / 20 20 10 30
HOT SPRINGS AR 75 63 79 65 / 30 10 10 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 74 63 80 65 / 30 20 10 10
MONTICELLO AR 76 65 82 66 / 40 20 20 10
MOUNT IDA AR 75 64 78 65 / 20 10 10 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 69 60 80 62 / 20 20 20 30
NEWPORT AR 69 64 79 64 / 30 20 20 20
PINE BLUFF AR 77 64 80 64 / 40 20 10 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 73 61 79 63 / 30 10 10 20
SEARCY AR 72 61 79 61 / 30 20 20 10
STUTTGART AR 74 63 81 64 / 30 20 20 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65 / LONG TERM...57
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
1231 AM CDT MON APR 6 2015
.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR THIS MORNING...AS AN
UPPER SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS
MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALL
AREAS SHOULD BE VFR BY 00Z. TAFS ALREADY OUT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 919 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2015/
UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO EXIT THE REGION TAKING THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION WITH IT. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO A WARM
FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT
STILL EXPECTING A FEW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT BASED
ON THE HRRR OUTPUT.
TEMPERATURES ALREADY CLOSE TO FORECASTED LOWS IN SOME AREAS AND
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. DO NOT BELIEVE THERE WILL BE MUCH OF A DROP
OFF TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUD COVER CONTINUE.
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...57
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
459 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL ATTEMPT TO BRIEFLY
BUILD IN TODAY... SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 WHERE IT LOOKS TO BE PARTLY
SUNNY MILD AND DRY. FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...WHERE A FRONT WILL BE
STALLED...THERE WILL BE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THE FURTHER NORTH ONE GOES. TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
BEGINS TO SAG SOUTHWARD SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE AND THERE
COULD EVEN BE A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE WITH US TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES WORK ALONG THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT...RADARS CONTINUE TO INDICATE JUST SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS OF SNOW AND RAIN LIFTING NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ALBANY SOUTH...25 TO 30
WELL NORTH OF ALBANY. THESE VALUES MIGHT DROP A POINT OR TWO AT MOST
THROUGH SUNRISE...THEN WILL RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.
THE LATEST HRRR INDICATED THIS ACTIVITY MOVING NORTH AND
DISSIPATING. OTHERWISE MANY AREAS MIGHT SEE A DRY DRY WITH SOME
SUNSHINE FROM I-90 SOUTHWARD. THEREFORE OUR FORECAST TODAY IS MORE
OPTIMISTIC THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AS A BOUNDARY LIFTS JUST NORTH OF I-
90 AND INITIALLY WEAKENS.
WE STILL HAVE SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE CAPITAL REGION...LOW POPS NORTH
MUCH OF THE DAY. THEREFORE...WE HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE IN
SOME PLACES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS WELL. AREAS WELL SOUTH OF I-90
LOOK TO CRACK 60 OR A LITTLE BETTER. EVEN IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET A NICE BUMP TODAY COMPARED TO
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID OR UPPER 50S. FURTHER NORTH...WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND BETTER CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS...WE HELD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTHERLY IN MOST AREAS TODAY...5-15 MPH HELPING
TO BRING IN THOSE MILDER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
NOT A BAD START TO THE WORKWEEK WEATHERWISE...BUT THE WEATHER LOOKS
UNSETTLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
A DISTURBANCE OVER IOWA WILL HEAD EAST. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER WHICH WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN TUGGING THE FRONT SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF JAMES BAY WILL SLIP A BIT
SOUTHWARD...PUSHING THE FRONT BACK TO THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION BY
TUESDAY MORNING. BY THIS TIME...THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL
BE IN THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL INDUCE
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE THE THREAT OF RAIN OR SHOWERS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.
AS COLD SHALLOW AIR FILTERS IN FIRST TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT...THERE IS
A CHANCE OF A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN OVER THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD TO
ABOUT LAKE GEORGE. WE WILL MONITOR THIS POSSIBILITY AND ISSUE ANY
HEADLINES IF NECESSARY. LOWS WILL BE FREEZING OR A LITTLE LOWER
NORTHERN AREAS...MID TO UPPER 30S JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION INCLUDING SOUTHERN VERMONT...40-45 ALBANY SOUTH.
TUESDAY WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN SLIP SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...BUT CHANCES NORTH. IT LOOKS TO BE AN OVERCAST DAY...RAW
NORTH OF ALBANY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S...TO AROUND 50 IN AND AROUND
ALBANY...LOWER 50S SOUTH.
TUESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL WEDGE SHALLOW COLD AIR
INTO MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH STILL PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WE
KEPT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM FOR SNOW NORTH OF
ALBANY...RAIN FURTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS LIGHT. LOWS 25-32 NORTH OF ALBANY...33 TO ABOUT 38
ALBANY SOUTH.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO PRODUCE MORE RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
ONE LOOKS STRONGER...AND WILL PRODUCE STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT AS
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF I84. THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE OF MORE RAIN THAT DAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S...MAYBE
SOME LOWER 50S NEAR INTERSTATE 84. AS LOW PRESSURE PUSH TO OUR EAST
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION MIGHT END AS SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS ALL AREAS AS LOWS DIP DOWN FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID
30S SOUTH.
THE QPF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY WILL BE MORE
SIGNIFICANT AND AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT QPF AMOUNTS UP TO AN
ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD LEAD TO RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. REFER TO HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO).
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER REMAINS IN THE FORECAST AS THE SYNOPTIC
FLOW AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AS A STRONGER WAVE COMES
ASHORE ACROSS PACIFIC COAST.
PER THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS...THIS STRONG WAVE MOVES OUT ONTO THE
PLAINS WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET RESPONSE AND GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE RETURN FOR MORE CLOUDS AND WET CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION
LATER THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. WE WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS
AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA. WHILE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS A LIQUID...WE CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS OF
THE SURFACE HIGH TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH EXTREME
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF WINTRY MIXTURE
WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF I90.
FRIDAY NIGHT THE TRENDS FAVOR A DRY SLOT AS MAIN SURFACE LOW TRACKS
WELL TO OUR WEST AND NORTH AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS
UPSTREAM. SO WE WILL LOWER POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH PORTIONS OF THE
DACKS REMAINING UNDER CHC-SCT POPS. THIS UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY
TRANSVERSES THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WE HAVE FOLLOWED THE
BLENDED APPROACH OFFERED BY WPC WITH A SLIGHT WARMER TREND DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS THROUGH THE WEEK DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND WARM
ADVECTION REGIME.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT THE PRESENT TIME...HOWEVER...WARM FRONT AND THE
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS /MAINLY DUE TO CIGS/ OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SUNRISE
MONDAY. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP /MAINLY SNOW FOR
KGFL/ AS THIS WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED NARROW REGION OF PRECIP
LIFTS NORTHWARD. AS THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT OCCURS MONDAY
MORNING...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ONCE AGAIN.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY THROUGH
MONDAY AT SPEEDS 10KTS OR LESS.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THU NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRI: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY...EXCEPT NORTHERN AREAS WILL MIGHT SEE A
LITTLE RAINFALL. PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND MINIMUM RH VALUES 35-40
PERCENT CAN BE EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-90...LESS SUNSHINE AND 40-50
PERCENT VALUES NEAR I-90. NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WILL FEATURE
MORE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. RH VALUES WILL BE MORE ELEVATED ONLY DROPPING TO THE 50-60
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
A SOUTH WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH FROM I-90 SOUTH...LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FURTHER NORTH NEAR THE FRONT.
THIS FRONT WILL DRIVE OUR WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IT
LOOKS MORE UNSETTLED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
EXPECTED AND DAMP CONDITIONS. BY FRIDAY...MOST IF NOT ALL PLACES
SHOULD HAVE SEEN OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL. IT LOOKS TO TURN
DRIER BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE MOHAWK RIVER AT THE UTICA HARBOR FOR MINOR
FLOODING REMAINS IN EFFECT...BUT COULD BE DROPPED LATER THIS MORNING.
IT NOW LOOKS MAINLY DRY FROM I-90 SOUTH TODAY...WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR SHOWERS NORTH OF I-90 WITH QPF AMOUNTS GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF
AN INCH. THIS RAIN WILL HAVE NO ADDED IMPACT ON ALREADY SWOLLEN
STREAMS AND RIVERS.
A STALLED OUT FRONT WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE AND MOISTURE INCREASES
NEAR IT...AND SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVE ALONG IT TONIGHT THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS LIQUID
RAIN...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME SLEET...FREEZING RAIN OR EVEN SNOW IN
OUR NORTHERN AREAS AT NIGHT.
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE DIURNAL MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK WITH
TEMPERATURES MOST NIGHTS GETTING COLD ENOUGH SLOW AND EVEN STOP THE
MELT.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH QPF
AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OF LESS EXPECTED. HOWEVER MORE SIGNIFICANT
QPF IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UP TO AN ONE INCH
POSSIBLE. MORE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. THIS RAINFALL COMBINED
WITH RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT WOULD LEAD TO RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. THE METEOROLOGICAL MODEL ENSEMBLE ROVER FORECASTS (MMEFS)
INDICATES THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME RIVER POINTS REACHING
ACTION OR PERHAPS EVEN MINOR FLOOD FLOOD STAGE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH FOR QPF AMOUNTS AND IS EVEN LOWER FOR THE EXPECTED RUNOFF FROM
SNOWMELT. HAVE ADDED MENTION TO OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
102 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...AS AN EAST WEST FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FIRST MOVES NORTH TO THE I90 CORRIDOR MONDAY...THEN
SHIFTS SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION MUCH OF THE
WEEK BEFORE SURGING NORTHWARD LATE IN THE WEEK. IT WILL PROVIDE
THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL BE MAINLY PERIODS OF RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... RADARS INDICATED SPOTTY
SHOWERS OF SNOW AND RAIN WORKING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF I-
09...ATTEMPTING TO MOVE NORTH. THE LATEST HRRR INDICATED THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE A LITTLE NORTH INTO THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL
REGION...BUT QPF WILL BE LIGHT. ANY SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE SHOULD BE LIGHT...NO MORE THAN A COATING IN THE
VALLEYS...MAYBE AN INCH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MAINLY THE
CATSKILLS.
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY A LITTLE BELOW FREEZING NORTH AND WEST
OF ALBANY...LOWER TO MID 30S FURTHER SOUTH...EXCEPT AROUND 40 NEAR
POUGHKEEPSIE. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK REASONABLE AND WERE LEFT ALONE.
LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S NORTH OF ALBANY...30-35 ALBANY SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE BOUNDARY WILL NOT EXPECTED
TO MOVE TO THE NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA BUT IT IS EXPECTED THAT
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL MAKE IT INTO THE MILDER AIRMASS.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60S TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
AND IN THE 30S TO 40S NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD WITH THE
BOUNDARY AND WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW APPROACHES. INITIALLY WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH SNOW THEN CHANGING TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM ALOFT AND
AT THE SURFACE. AGAIN QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
AS THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION AND MOVES OFF TO
OUR EAST THE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT BACK SOUTHWARD. MORE WIDESPREAD
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR AS THIS OCCUR HOWEVER QPF AMOUNTS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO BY LIGHT.
MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO AND MOVE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE HIGH WILL
SURPRISE THE BOUNDARY AND LOW FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
RAIN IS EXPECTED HOWEVER THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT COLDER AIR
WILL DRAIN IN AT LOW LEVELS THANKS TO HIGH TO THE NORTH. IT MAY
GET COLD ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. WILL KEEP MENTION IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
THE QPF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MORE SIGNIFICANT AND AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT QPF AMOUNTS UP TO AN ONE INCH ARE
POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD LEAD TO RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.
REFER TO HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PATTERN WILL BE QUITE UNSETTLED WITH PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION TO
QUASH ANY REMAINING TALK OF A DROUGHT. WHILE WE HAVE CHANCE POPS
FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD UP UNTIL THE END...FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
LOOK TO BE POTENTIALLY QUITE WET...WITH ENOUGH MILD AIR IN PLACE SO
THAT ONLY THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS MAY SEE A MIX WITH SNOW. WE ARE
GOING WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THIS PORTION OF THE EXTENDED DESPITE
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY AS DISCUSSED FURTHER BELOW.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAK BOUNDARIES OR SURFACE FRONTS WILL
PLAGUE THE FORECAST AREA WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...ALBEIT
MAINLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN WEST WILL BE WHAT COULD PROVIDE US WITH A GOOD SOAKING
TOWARD WEEK/S END AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE
ONLY PROBLEM IS THAT GREAT UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TOWARDS THIS TIME
AS TO THE DEGREE OF INTENSIFICATION AND THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE.
WARMTH BUILDS THROUGH THE PERIOD TO INCREASING HIGH TEMPERATURES
EACH DAY. WEDNESDAY/S HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE
ADIRONDACKS...GREENS AND NORTHERN CATSKILLS HIGH PEAKS...TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO
AROUND 60 ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. 20S AND 30S WILL BE THE
GENERAL RULE FOR LOWS...ALTHOUGH FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD STAY AT LEAST
JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN ALMOST ALL SPOTS.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
WITH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED AND LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
THIS AFTERNOON...DRY LOW-LEVELS SHOULD INHIBIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 21-22Z. THESE SHOWERS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL SLOWLY BE DRIFTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED VCSH AT ALL THE
TAF SITES EXCEPT KGFL AROUND 21-22Z FOR WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...PERHAPS MIXED IN WITH A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES AT KPSF
ESPECIALLY LATER THIS EVENING. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IN
NATURE ALTHOUGH FLYING CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR AT KPOU
AND KPSF.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST GENERALLY AROUND 8-14
KNOTS...WITH SOME GUSTS OCCASIONALLY UP TO 25 KNOTS AT KGFL...KALB
AND KPSF. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY SUBSIDE BY 00Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
IS SUPPRESSED.
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE REGION AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH. HAVE GONE WITH A
TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 00Z-03Z FOR MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS AT KPOU
ASSOCIATED WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
WITH GRADUALLY MOISTENING LOW-LEVELS AND BETTER FORCING AS THE
BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MORE
FOCUSED PRECIPITATION...AGAIN LIGHT IN NATURE...BETWEEN 06-12Z AND
HAVE INDICATED PROB30 GROUPS FOR A PERIOD OF POSSIBLE MVFR RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS AT KALB AND PRIMARILY LIGHT SNOW AT KPSF. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT IN NATURE...RANGING FROM A
COATING TO A COUPLE OF TENTHS. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE AFTER 12Z WITH SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AT KPOU...WITH
OVERCAST SKIES EXPECTED AT THE REST OF THE TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AND
BECOME SOUTHERLY MONDAY 5-10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THU NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRI: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE REGION PROVIDING FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL COME MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE MOHAWK RIVER AT THE UTICA HARBOR FOR
MINOR FLOODING REMAINS IN EFFECT.
WET UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEK. ROUNDS/PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK AS NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY
REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE REGION PROVIDING FOCUS FOR THE
PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL COME MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
THERE WILL BE DIURNAL MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK WITH TEMPERATURES
MOST NIGHTS GETTING COLD ENOUGH SLOW AND EVEN STOP THE MELT. AN
EXCEPTION WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO ONLY
DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH QPF
AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OF LESS EXPECTED. HOWEVER MORE SIGNIFICANT
QPF IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UP TO AN ONE INCH
POSSIBLE. MORE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. THIS RAINFALL COMBINED
WITH RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT WOULD LEAD TO RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. THE METEOROLOGICAL MODEL ENSEMBLE ROVER FORECASTS (MMEFS)
INDICATES THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME RIVER POINTS REACHING
ACTION OR EVEN MINOR FLOOD FLOOD STAGE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR
QPF AMOUNTS AND IS EVEN LOWER FOR THE EXPECTED RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT.
HAVE ADDED MENTION TO OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$ SYNOPSIS...IAA/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/SNYDER/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
313 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THIS MORNING...NAM12 AND HRRR MODELS BEST REPRESENTED STRENGTH OF
INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE FIRST COAST WITH THE BULK
OF COASTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WELL SOUTH NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL.
ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS PASSED OVERHEAD DOWNSTREAM OF A MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH TREKKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION. TEMPS WERE MILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND RANGED FROM THE LOW TO MID
60S. ENE FLOW WAS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY AS THE
COASTAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MORPH INTO A PSEUDO- WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD UP THE FL PENINSULA.
TODAY...SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR...NAM12 AND
SREF ADVERTISED LOW CHANCES OF COASTAL SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AS THE TROUGH BREAKS DOWN AND LIFTS NORTHWARD UP THE FL
ATLANTIC COAST. IN THE UPPER LEVELS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENERGY WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE SHALLOW FORCING
ALONG THE LIFTING FRONTAL ZONE TO GENERATE A CHANCE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS BREAKING OUT BOTH ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND OVER INLAND
SE GA THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. ENOUGH INSOLATION SHOULD
BREAK OUT TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
TRACKS INLAND AND CONVERGES ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR
INTO THE LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. PASSING UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENERGY APPEARED WEAK IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE
HOWEVER COLD 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -12 TO -14 COULD SUPPORT A FEW
STRONGER TSTORMS ACROSS SE GA IN THE AFTN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL. HIGH TEMPS WILL RISE TO NEAR
CLIMO VALUES ALONG AND EAST OF THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN TODAY TO
THE LOWER 80S INLAND TOWARD I-75.
TONIGHT...PRECIP WILL FADE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY EARLY THIS EVENING
ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MIDNIGHT WITH
LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDINESS. AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
OVER NE FL LATE AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS POTIONS ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY
WHERE RAINFALL OCCURRED MON AFTERNOON. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILD AND MUGGY
IN THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO UPPER 60S COAST.
TUE...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN
TRIALING A LINGERING MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE LOCAL AREA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA FROM THE WNW
IN THE AFTN AND THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH HIGH MOISTURE AND SEA BREEZE
INTERACTIONS SUPPORTED A CHANCE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTORMS
FOCUSED BETWEEN ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN AND THE I-75 CORRIDOR. HIGHS
WILL RISE INTO THE MID 80S INLAND TO UPPER 70S COAST
WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED PM STORMS EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR AS
SEABREEZE COLLIDE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 80 DEGREES AT THE
COAST TO THE UPPER 80S INLAND.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...RIDGE BUILDS STRONGER ACROSS
THE AREA ON THURSDAY. SUBSIDENCE WILL PRODUCE WARMER AND DRIER MID
LEVELS RESULTING IN ONLY ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR WITH THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING SEABREEZE COLLISION. UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN
FRIDAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE BY EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER SE GA AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW. ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL PERSIST NEXT
WEEKEND AS UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. POPS WILL BE
AT OR BELOW AVERAGE THURSDAY AND THEN AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE FRI-SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS ADVERTISED BY 12Z AS COASTAL SHOWERS CREEP NORTHWARD UP
THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST UNDER VEERING NE TO E FLOW. AS SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHIFTS INLAND THROUGH THE DAY...CIGS WILL RISE TRAILING
THE EAST COAST BREEZE ACROSS COASTAL AREAS AS BREEZY SE FLOW
DEVELOPS. BEST CHANCES OF AFTN THUNDERSTORMS AT GNV HOWEVER WITH
LOW PROBABILITIES OF THUNDER FORECAST CONTINUED WITH VCSH AT THIS
TIME BEGINNING AROUND 18Z.
.MARINE...
A COASTAL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH OF THE WATERS TODAY.
NE WINDS RELAXED OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS DROPPING BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS AND SEAS RELAXED BELOW 6 FT AT BUOY 41008. DROPPED THE
ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND REPLACED WITH AN EXERCISE
CAUTION HEADLINE FOR TODAY AS WINDS WILL CONTINUE VEER SE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY
THEN EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY. LOW TO
MODERATE RISK TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 80 65 84 64 / 40 10 40 10
SSI 72 65 74 64 / 40 10 20 0
JAX 79 67 84 65 / 40 10 30 0
SGJ 76 67 78 64 / 30 10 20 0
GNV 83 67 84 63 / 50 20 30 20
OCF 85 67 85 64 / 40 20 40 30
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
ENYEDI/ZIBURA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
245 AM MDT MON APR 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WV IMAGERY THIS
MORNING SHOWS UPPER LOW SPINNING OFF OR COAST AND TRACKING TOWARDS
THE SOUTHEAST. RADAR IS PICKING UP SOME CONVECTION IN A LINE FROM
MOUNTAIN HOME TO MCCALL ALONG A SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA.
WE ARE ALSO SEEING SOME BANDED RADAR ECHOES FORMING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS ALONG A LINE OF 700MB
FRONTOGENESIS. MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO PUSH FOR MORNING PRECIP
ALONG THIS MESOSCALE BAND. THE HRRR DRIVES MUCH OF THE ENERGY FROM
THE SHORTWAVE WELL OFF TO THE NORTH BY 12Z...BUT CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST IDAHO THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING. SURFACE TEMPS CURRENTLY FAVORING RAIN OVER SNOW FOR PIH
AND IDA WITH SNOW LEVELS ABOUT 700 TO 1000 FT ABOVE THE GROUND.
UPPER SLOPES OF THE SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS CAN EXPECT 2 TO 4 INCHES
OF SNOW TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEATHER SHOULD BECOME MORE SETTLED
BRIEFLY TONIGHT AS A TRANSIENT RIDGE PASSES...BUT THE UPPER LOW
WILL BEGIN MOVING INLAND TUESDAY MORNING AND A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST NEVADA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE SURFACE
LOW INTENSIFIES OVER THE SALT LAKE TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE
INCREASING PRECIP ALONG OUR SOUTHERN BORDER WITH SNOW LEVELS
DROPPING TO THE SURFACE. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE ABOUT 4 TO 6 INCHES IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS ABOVE 6500 FT AND LESSER AMOUNTS BELOW. THE UPPER LOW
WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND LEAVE THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF WINDS AT 700MB WILL FAVOR CONTINUED
POPS INTO THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HIGHLANDS.
HINSBERGER
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE
ON DRAGGING A SHALLOW LOW SE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY/FRIDAY
RESULTING IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION EACH DAY FAVORING THE NE
HIGHLANDS. A QUICK BREAK FOLLOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
INCOMING PAC STORM SYSTEM SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE STORM PASSES
QUICKLY EAST SUNDAY WITH GRADUALLY DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER
THE REGION UNDER A BROAD UPPER RIDGE MONDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. HUSTON
&&
.AVIATION...A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS NOTED OFF THE
WASHINGTON/OREGON COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE A BROAD AREA OF VFR
CIGS WERE OVERSPREADING SE IDAHO. THE MODELS SHOW THE MOISTURE
DEEPENING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING (LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS)
WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT UPPER JET
INDUCED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. LITTLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE
MODELS AT THIS TIME ON THE FAVORED PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION SO WE
WILL BE JUDICIOUS WITH THE MENTION IN THE TAFS. THE CONVECTION ENDS
BY EARLY EVENING AS DRIER CONDITIONS SPREAD INTO THE AREA AND THE
LOW DROPS FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE NRN CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS.
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN
TODAY. HUSTON
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
342 AM CDT MON APR 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...
247 PM CDT
THROUGH TUESDAY...
PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVES AROUND LAKE ENHANCED
FRONTAL POSITIONING AND SUBSEQUENT TEMPS THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING...THEN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT.
WEAKER GRADIENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN HAS ALLOWED THE LAKE TO TAKE OVER WITH WELL
DEVELOPED LAKE BREEZE SEEN PLOWING INLAND ON THE MKE TERMINAL
DOPPLER RADAR. LAKE BREEZE WILL BE ENCOUNTERING A BRISK SOUTHWEST
WIND THIS AFTERNOON OVER NE IL...BUT WITH TIME THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND SHOULD ALLOW THE LAKE BREEZE
TO PENETRATE MORE DEEPLY INTO NE IL EARLY THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LAKE BREEZE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING
AND SOUTHERLY SYNOPTIC GRADIENT FLOW ALLOWING MILD AIR TO MOVE BACK
NORTHEAST TO THE LAKE FRONT OVERNIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE TRICKY AND
ATYPICAL DIURNAL TEMP TRENDS IN NE IL THROUGH TONIGHT.
MONDAY LOOKS TO LARGELY BE A REPEAT OF TODAY EXCEPT WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURNING WILL SEE SKIES CLOUD UP AND LIKELY KEEP TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER MONDAY AS
WELL...SO EVEN THOUGH FRONT WILL START OUT OVER SOUTHERN WI EARLY IN
THE DAY...LAKE WILL LIKELY HAVE ITS SAY AGAIN SENDING A LAKE BREEZE
ENHANCED FRONT SOUTHWEST INTO NE IL DURING THE AFTERNOON RESULTING
IN DROPPING TEMPS LATE IN THE DAY. SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL SETTLE
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS MONDAY EVENING AS SFC CYCLOGENESIS
TAKES PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN RESPONSE DEVELOPING WESTERN
TROUGH AND LEAD LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE DIGGING WESTERN TROUGH.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TO OUR WEST OVER THE CORN
BELT LATE MONDAY AND SPILL EASTWARD INTO OUR CWA LATER MONDAY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FED BY STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 40KT+ LOW LEVEL JET. COULD BE ENOUGH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SOME SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN WITH
THE MORE ROBUST CONVECTION MONDAY NIGHT.
IZZI
&&
.LONG TERM...
247 PM CDT
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY NIGHT`S CONVECTION A CLASSIC SPRING I-80 FRONT
WILL BE LEFT BEHIND OVER THE CWA WITH A SHALLOW LAKE ENHANCED COLD
AIR MASS TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND SPRING WARMTH TO THE SOUTH
OVER FAR SOUTHERN CWA. FAIRLY STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS OFF THE LAKE
WILL FURTHER SHARPEN THE ALREADY SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION TO THE
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MONDAY NIGHT
AND SHALLOW COLD WEDGE NOSING BENEATH IT WILL SET UP A CLASSIC
CHICAGO "SPRING" LOW STRATUS AND FOG SITUATION TUESDAY AND LIKELY
LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE...LOOKS
LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE WITH DRIZZLE AND
LOW CEILINGS LIKES TO CAUSE TEMPS TO HOLD IN THE 40S AND PROBABLY
LOWER/MID 40S AT THAT NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH UPPER 30S POSSIBLE
NEAR THE LAKE. PRECIP TUES SHOULD BE CONFINED TO MAINLY DRIZZLE OR
VERY LIGHT RAIN...WITH BETTER CHANCES OF MEASURABLE SHOWERS ENDING
OVER THE SE CWA IN THE MORNING. LATER IN THE DAY SOME GUIDANCE DOES
SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD WESTERN CWA WHICH COULD LEAD TO
AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY INTO TUES EVENING. VERY
WARM/MOIST AIR ABOVE THE SHALLOW INVERSION COULD STILL ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BEFORE THIS IMPULSE MOVES EAST OF
THE REGION LATE TUES NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.
THE I-80 FRONT IS PROGGED TO SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH TUES NIGHT AND
LARGELY BE SOUTH OF OUR CWA WEDNESDAY WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT LIKELY LEADING TO A PRIMARILY DRY DAY ACROSS THE CWA. DRIZZLE
AND FOG WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY NEAR THE LAKE
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING.
WESTERN TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND MOVE OUT
INTO THE PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEK. STILL SOME SIZABLE SPREAD IN THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAST THE SYSTEM KICKS OUT
AND RESULTANT TIMING OF OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES LATE IN THE
WEEK. THE GFS REMAINS ON THE FAST END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BUT
GIVEN THE PROGGED STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AND FACT IT IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN A DEEP CLOSED CIRCULATION ALOFT AM INCLINED TO BELIEVE IT
WILL BE A SLOWER MOVING SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. AT THIS
DISTANCE IT IS SILLY TO START GETTING TRYING TO TALK ABOUT DETAILS
AND BEST WE CAN SAY AT THIS POINT IS THAT SHOWERS/STORMS APPEAR
LIKELY WHEN IT MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND IF CURRENT
NORTHERLY TRACK VERIFIES THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE DRAWN BACK
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA PLACING OUR CWA BACK IN THE HUMID WARM
SECTOR WITH THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION BEING WHEN. SYNOPTICALLY
PATTERN LOOKS REMARKABLY SIMALAR TO PREVIOUS MULTI-DAY SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAKS. AT THIS DISTANCE THE BETTER CHANCES OF
SEVERE WEATHER CERTAINLY LOOK TO LIE WEST OF OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY IF
SLOWER SOLUTIONS PAN OUR AND SYSTEM IS WEAKENING AND OCCLUDING BY
TIME IT ARRIVES HERE. NONE THE LESS LATER THIS WEEK DOES BEAR
WATCHING BECAUSE A FASTER SOLUTION VERIFYING WOULD PLACE PORTIONS OF
OUR CWA MUCH CLOSER TO THE GREATER SEVERE THREAT.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM LOOK FOR A BRIEF COOL DOWN BEFORE ANOTHER
WESTERN TROUGH DEVELOPS AND PUSHES EASTWARD WITH A WARM UP POSSIBLE
NEXT WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF IT.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* WIND SHIFT/LAKE BREEZE TO EAST/NORTHEAST MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
* SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING.
* MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
SEVERAL FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS FROM RFD TO ORD EARLY THIS
MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS
WITH WINDS TURNING BACK SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT ORD/DPA/RFD. SPEEDS
SHOULD REMAIN JUST UNDER 10KTS FOR MUCH OF THIS MORNING. THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE BACK SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING
WINDS BACK TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS WILL OCCUR
BUT ONLY MEDIUM FOR TIMING. SPEEDS MAY INITIALLY BE UNDER 10KTS
BUT WILL LIKELY INCREASE INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN
EAST/NORTHEAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
LARGE AREA OF 5-6 KFT CLOUDS SPREADING NORTH AND WILL ARRIVE
ACROSS THE TERMINALS BEFORE SUNRISE THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH CIGS ALREADY
LOWERING TO MVFR ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN IA AND MO. THESE LOWER
CIGS WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO RFD FIRST THEN ACROSS THE REST OF THE
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL LOWER CLOUDS MAY
FORM AS COLDER AIR SPREADS IN FROM THE LAKE AFTER WINDS SHIFT
EASTERLY. THUS FAIRLY CONFIDENT CIGS WILL BE TRENDING LOWER THIS
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CIGS COULD
END UP EVEN LOWER THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS AN
UPPER WAVE ARRIVES. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS A RELATIVELY SHORT TIME
PERIOD IN THE MID/LATE EVENING FOR BEST POTENTIAL. AFTER
MIDNIGHT APPEARS BETTER CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE. LATER FORECASTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS BUT MAINTAINED
PREVAILING PRECIP THIS EVENING. COULD ALSO BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP
MENTION OUT OF THE TERMINALS WITH THIS FORECAST. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* HIGH FOR WIND SHIFT TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST MID/LATE AFTERNOON...
MEDIUM FOR TIMIMG...LOW FOR SPEEDS.
* MEDIUM FOR SHOWERS THIS EVENING...LOW FOR COVERAGE/DURATION.
* HIGH FOR MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...MEDIUM FOR
TIMING.
* HIGH FOR IFR/LIFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...MEDIUM FOR TIMING. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
TUESDAY...SHRA/TSRA. IFR/LIFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...IFR/LIFR. CHANCE OF DRIZZLE. EAST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SHRA/TSRA. IFR/LIFR. EAST
WINDS.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
342 AM...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING BUT WILL THEN MOVE BACK SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON...AND SOUTH OF THE LAKE BY THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT
IS THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
LAKE INTO THURSDAY WHEN LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
NORTHEAST/EAST WINDS 15-25 KTS WILL PERSIST THRU THURSDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF 30KTS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF/TWO THIRDS OF THE LAKE. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
240 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT MON APR 6 2015
Latest surface analysis indicating a stationary front located over
extreme northern Illinois through northern Iowa, which is forecast
to hold to our north until tonight when it will start to edge south
across the forecast area. Meanwhile, our persistent southerly flow
has brought an increase in cloud cover to the forecast area early
this morning along with a few sprinkles being reported to our south
at Mattoon and Salem during the past hour. RAP forecast soundings
showing the depth of the moisture will not be very deep today,
roughly 3000-4000 feet, so any light rain that is able to make it to
the ground will not amount to much. Short term models do indicate a
subtle shortwave tracking east across the forecast area through
early morning which may be enough to shake out some light rain from
time to time, especially across the south and east. Had low chance
POPs going in the east and see no reason to change that, with the
better chances for showers and thunderstorms arriving by late this
afternoon across the far northwest. RAP and HRRR models also forecast
surface dew points to increase to around 50 degrees over the south
half of the area by later today, compared with upper teens to low 20
dew points this past weekend.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT MON APR 6 2015
NWP models continue to show an active weather pattern from tonight
through Thursday night, with periodic rain chances. Potential for
storms will initially be limited to mainly our western counties
tonight, with the SPC marginal risk area covering west of Rushville
to Taylorville. The best chance of strong to severe storms still
looks to be Thursday afternoon/eve with the arrival of a stronger
shortwave and cold front.
A stationary front across northern Illinois will be the focus for
showers to develop tonight, once moisture levels increase and
frontogenetic forcing intensifies. The front is expected to drift
southward into central IL tonight, stalling out again roughly along
I-72 from Tuesday through Wednesday night.
Weakening low pressure will progress into western Illinois Tuesday
afternoon, with an increase of F-gen forcing and instability across
our central and northern counties. However, better potential for
strong storms will remain west of IL. Forcing for storms Wed
afternoon appears tied to shortwaves tracking over the top of low
level F-gen forcing, but severe potential appears low again late Wed
and Wed night.
While the models are indicating QPF amounts in every period this
week, there will be extended breaks in the rainfall in the wake of
individual waves that progress eastward along the frontal boundary.
Despite continued model differences in timing, we tried to highlight
the periods with the best chances for precip with likely or higher
PoPs. Right now, that includes tonight into Tuesday mainly in the
north, Wed night in the south, Thurs in the west, and Thur night in
the east.
A more substantial low along the Pacific coast will push east into
the Rockies on Wednesday, reaching northern IL Thursday night.
Impacts from that system will be felt in our area as early as Wed
night, especially closer to the front in our southern counties.
Severe potential will ramp up on Thursday afternoon as a surface low
pressure center approaches NW IL and a cold front reaches western
IL. That front will progress across IL Thur night, with support
aloft from an intensifying jet streak. Wind shear and instability
params appear favorable for rotating storms with large hail,
damaging winds and even a few tornadoes. At this point, model
consensus points toward storms affecting areas W of I-55 Thur aftn,
and east of I-55 Thurs evening.
A few showers could linger Friday morning east of I-57, but most
areas should be dry on Friday. That break from rain/storms is
expected to continue into the weekend, under surface high pressure.
The next weather disturbance could arrive later Sunday afternoon, as
the upper flow remains relatively zonal. More significant pattern
differences in the extended models are keeping confidence low on
timing, so will keep chance PoPs confined to our far western
counties Sunday for now.
Temperatures through the week will be closely tied to the
oscillation of the stationary front south then north through central
IL. We kept temps well above guidance in the southern counties until
the cold frontal passage Thursday night, while northern areas were
kept closer to normal temps after the front drifts south toward I-72
for Tuesday to Thursday. Thursday looks to be the warmest day of the
week, with cooler conditions from Friday through Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
Cigs around 5kft have already advected into the area and will be
effecting all TAF sites by 06z. Observations show cigs below 3kft
located in MO and based on HiRes models and Bufkit data, these
lower cigs are expected to effect all TAF sites during the morning
hours, starting at SPI and DEC at 12z, then CMI by 13z, then PIA
and BMI by 14z. These MVFR cigs will continue during the morning and
continue into the afternoon hours. As the warm front sets up and
the low level jet strengthens over the area, pcpn will begin to
break out across the north and then slowly slide south during the
evening hours. PIA and BMI will see pcpn first and cigs will
further drop to just above 1kft. Similar conditions will be seen
at SPI, DEC, and CMI after PIA and BMI. The showers will likely
continue through the evening hours. Unsure on convection
potential, but believe it is possible along the front, so have
included VCTS at all sites. Winds will be southerly and then
become more southeasterly during the evening as the warm front
becomes more established.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1144 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2015
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 402 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
Tonight and Monday...the amplified upper level trough will begin to
approach the northern CA coast by 00Z TUE. A broad area of
southwesterly mid and upper level flow will spread northeast across
the plains states.
Through the evening hours deeper moisture will
spread northward across the CWA. Low stratus has already moved north
into the southeast counties and will spread northward through the
night. The NAM, GFS, RAP and members of the WRF models all show weak
isentropic lift developing at the 290K theta level. This may provide
for periods of light drizzle after midnight and into the mid morning
hours of Monday. I suppose if there is enough drizzle some areas
could see a couple hundredths of an inch of QPF from late Tonight
through the mid morning hours of Monday. Overnight lows will only
drop into the lower 50s, given the southerly winds and low-level
moisture advection through the night.
Monday, An elevated mix layer from the high plains will spread
across the CWA. This will cause a large capping inversion to form.
The forecast soundings show the EML will be at 840MB and the
moisture will only be as deep as 900mb, thus even taking the parcel
from the top of the moist layer would not break the cap.
Therefore, we will not see thunderstorms through the day on Monday.
We may not even see showers once the boundary layer mixes deep
enough to end the low-level isentropic lift and the drizzle chances.
Forecast soundings show the stratus holding for most of the day
across the eastern counties of the CWA. The western counties may
become partly cloudy to mostly sunny. There will most likely be a
rather sharp temperature gradient across the CWA with low to mid 80s
across the southwest counties and highs only reaching to near 70
degrees across the extreme eastern counties of the CWA. Southerly
surface winds will increase to 15 to 25 MPH with gusts of 30 to 35
MPH as a lee surface low deepens across western KS.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 402 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
By Monday night, surface low pressure will be centered over central
Kansas with the dryline expected to track as far east as into
central Kansas with the associated warm front extending into
northeast Kansas. While most models show the surface low slowly
lifting northeast Monday night through Tuesday, there is uncertainty
with how long precipitation will stick around. At this time, the
better chances for precipitation should be focused along and north
of the warm front near the Kansas/Nebraska border, and then shift
into far eastern Kansas as the surface low tracks eastward. What the
models do agree with is a very strong cap being in place Monday
night through Tuesday with a decent amount of elevated CAPE.
However, model soundings show such shallow saturation in the low
levels that confidence is low in even elevated thunderstorms being
able to develop, but a few scattered showers may be possible. With
this system being so slow-moving, models show the associated frontal
boundary being draped across the northern part of the forecast area
by Tuesday morning, however there are model discrepancies with the
exact location. Expect strong southerly flow in the warm sector
Monday night along with partly to mostly cloudy skies, so overnight
low temperatures should be mild in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
However, locations north of the boundary should see a sharper
temperature gradient with lows in the low/mid 50s. This distinct
temperature gradient will continue through the day on Tuesday as
models show the boundary still lingering across the CWA. Once again,
the exact location of this gradient is uncertain due to model
discrepancies in the boundary location, however Tuesday high
temperatures may range from the middle 60s to low/mid 80s. This
boundary will finally shift east of the area Tuesday evening, but
models show the potential for some thunderstorms to develop along
this boundary late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening as it
shifts east. However, the models are split on whether or not the cap
will be broken by then, with the NAM showing a strong cap while the
GFS/ECMWF show little to no cap. If the cap is able to weaken enough
to support thunderstorm development, there looks to be upwards of
around 2000 J/kg of CAPE with around 40kts of 0-6km bulk shear, so
some severe thunderstorms would be possible with large hail and
strong winds being the primary threats.
A much stronger system is expected by Wednesday/Wednesday night as
the mid-level trough that will move into the western U.S. on Tuesday
quickly advances into the Rockies by Wednesday and helps to push a
strong low pressure system into the region. Models show a warm front
associated with this next system draped across far southern Kansas
near the Oklahoma border by Wednesday morning, with the boundary
lifting northward into the forecast area Wednesday afternoon and
evening. However, there is uncertainty with how quickly this front
will surge northward and just how far north it will track. 12z model
runs showed the GFS/GEM tracking faster and further north while the
ECMWF/NAM were slower and thus limited on their northern extension.
While these details will need to be worked out in the coming days,
MUCAPE values may be upwards of at least 1500-2500 J/kg, 30-40+ kts
of 0-6km bulk shear, 0-1km helicity values around 150-250 m2/s2, and
limited CIN. As a result, supercellular thunderstorms are expected
with all severe threats possible -- large hail, damaging winds, as
well as some tornadoes possible. The temperature gradient will
continue through Wednesday with highs potentially ranging from mid
60s to mid 70s.
For Thursday, both GFS and ECMWF do indicate best potential for
thunderstorm activity to be in the afternoon into early evening.
However, the GFS does seem to be faster and progression is more
quickly to the North with a more negative tilt to the upper level
trough. This does create some uncertainty for how much and how long
the best conditions will exist for any severe threat over extreme
eastern KS. Any major activity looks to be East of Hwy 75 for the
most part as good moisture, shear and instability are better just
off to the East. During the mid to late afternoon time frame a jet
streak may also help to enhance storms along the cold front which
looks to be making its way through the very eastern portions of the
outlook area at this time. As a result, the focus for storms by early
evening does look to be more over western MO.
After the cold front makes its way through, more zonal flow sets up
with a quick transition into a more amplified ridge for Saturday
into Sunday morning in response to yet another potential trough
digging into the four corners region. This could bring some more
showers and potential thunderstorm activity later during the day
Sunday into evening to our area.
Temperatures for Thursday through the end of the period should be trending
on the pleasant side with highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s with
lows in the lower 40s initially but creeping up to the 50s by later
in the period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
Observation and model trends pointing to MVFR ceilings dropping to
IFR around 06Z and continuing to lower in the next few hours,
though mixing should be enough to keep levels above VLIFR.
Challenges on how fast and how far ceilings rise in the later
portions of the forecast continue with differences in mixing of
the shallow moisture under the strong inversion aloft. GFS seems
to have handled recent conditions the best and have stayed closest
to it.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Drake/Hennecke
AVIATION...65
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
510 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
A SHALLOW SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTH...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...HAVE LED
TO A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. OUR NEXT
CONCERN IS NOW ANOTHER SUBTLE SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING
OVER THE TEXARKANA REGION...WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS IT
SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY...REACHING JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA BY 6Z TUESDAY.
AS THIS SHORTWAVE NEARS...EXPECT MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO BUILD...AND
EVENTUALLY PRECIP TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. MODELS CONTINUE
TO AGREE ON SLOWING DOWN THE TIMING OF ONSET...WITH QPF NOW LIKELY
TO REACH THE SW EXTENT OF THE CWA AFTER 12Z. IN FACT...THE LATEST
NAM12 AND HRRR HOLDS IT OFF EVEN LONGER...CLOSER TO 18Z.
HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME LIGHT RETURNS ALREADY SHOWING UP ON RADAR
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KY AND PORTIONS OF TN...EXPECT THAT ALL WE NEED
IS SOME DAYLIGHT AND HEATING TO GET THINGS GOING HERE. THE SAME
WILL GO WITH OVERNIGHT...WHEN WE LOSE SOME OF OUR DIURNAL HEATING.
EXPECT THE OVERALL COVERAGE TO GO DOWN BRIEFLY...UNTIL A WARM
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE CLOSE IN CLOSER ON
KY BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS TO START UP ONCE MORE...EVEN BEFORE WE
RECEIVE THE INFLUENCE FROM DAYTIME HEATING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY.
WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR POPS AND TIMING...LOWERING THEM
SLIGHTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT FOR THE ABOVE
MENTIONED LOSS OF FORCING. UNFORTUNATELY...IN THIS TYPE OF SET
UP...GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT AND UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL ENSURE
PRECIP WILL OCCUR...BUT THE EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS
PRECIP IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...AND DIFFERS FROM MODEL TO
MODEL. GIVEN THE LATEST NAM12 FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY...SO
KEPT WITH ONLY RAIN CHANCES UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON WHEN NEAR SURFACE
TEMPS ARE ABLE TO WARM ENOUGH TO INCREASE THE LAPSE RATES. THE
BEST INSTABILITY WILL ACTUALLY BE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE
COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH SINKS SOUTHWARD AND NEARS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 510 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL AGREE THAT A GRADUALLY
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE UNITED STATES INTO FRIDAY. THROUGH THIS RIDGE A STREAM OF
LOOSE ENERGY PACKETS WILL CROSS OVER KENTUCKY. THIS PROCESS WILL
BE JOINED BY THE ARRIVAL OF A DEEPER TROUGH MOVING EAST THROUGH
THE PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS BRINGS HEIGHT FALLS AND A
MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF ENERGY TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY
EVENING. THE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS WILL LIFT INTO THE GREAT
LAKES THAT NIGHT WITH A RESURGENCE TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE ECMWF
ON SATURDAY DRAGGING MORE ENERGY SOUTH AND INTO KENTUCKY BEFORE
DEPARTING LATER THAT NIGHT. RISING HEIGHTS WILL FOLLOW FOR THE
AREA. THE GFS DOES NOT HAVE THIS RESURGENCE IN ITS SOLUTION SO
THIS DISCREPANCY LOWERS CONFIDENCE FOR THE LATTER PARTS OF THE
EXTENDED...NEVERTHELESS A GENERAL MODEL BLEND WAS FAVORED FOR
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A WARM...WET...AND ACTIVE WEEK FOR
KENTUCKY AS THE STATE WILL BE BELOW A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
RUNNING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FOR MUCH OF THE TIME. VARIOUS
UPPER WAVES AND SFC REFLECTIONS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL KEEP A
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE RISK OF ORGANIZED AND MORE
THREATENING STORMS DEVELOPS LATER THURSDAY AND CONTINUES INTO
FRIDAY DUE TO THE HEIGHT FALLS AND MORE IMPRESSIVE ENERGY STREAM
TARGETING THE REGION...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST. THE MAIN SFC LOW
LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH THE AREA FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. GIVEN THE OPEN GULF AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE...MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINS WILL BE A THREAT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. DRIER
WEATHER DOES FOLLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL ALSO BRING MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO THE STATE FOLLOWING A WEEK OF ABOVE
NORMAL WARMTH...WHERE SOME LOW 80S WILL LIKELY BE SEEN...DESPITE
THE OCCASIONAL RAIN.
THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN REASONABLY WELL WITH JUST SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO POPS TO BETTER REFLECT A DIURNAL TREND. ALSO
MADE SOME TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS EACH NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD ON THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH CEILINGS
WILL BE LOWERING WITH TIME. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL THREATEN
TOWARDS DAWN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN
AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE DAY...WITH EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING. CEILINGS WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER TO
MVFR NEAR AND WEST OF I-75 BY NIGHTFALL...WITH A BIT LESS
UNCERTAINTY TO THE EAST...WHERE LOW END VFR MAY HANG ON. WINDS
WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY OUT OF
THE SOUTH.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN/JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
410 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
A SHALLOW SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTH...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...HAVE LED
TO A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. OUR NEXT
CONCERN IS NOW ANOTHER SUBTLE SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING
OVER THE TEXARKANA REGION...WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS IT
SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY...REACHING JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA BY 6Z TUESDAY.
AS THIS SHORTWAVE NEARS...EXPECT MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO BUILD...AND
EVENTUALLY PRECIP TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. MODELS CONTINUE
TO AGREE ON SLOWING DOWN THE TIMING OF ONSET...WITH QPF NOW LIKELY
TO REACH THE SW EXTENT OF THE CWA AFTER 12Z. IN FACT...THE LATEST
NAM12 AND HRRR HOLDS IT OFF EVEN LONGER...CLOSER TO 18Z.
HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME LIGHT RETURNS ALREADY SHOWING UP ON RADAR
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KY AND PORTIONS OF TN...EXPECT THAT ALL WE NEED
IS SOME DAYLIGHT AND HEATING TO GET THINGS GOING HERE. THE SAME
WILL GO WITH OVERNIGHT...WHEN WE LOSE SOME OF OUR DIURNAL HEATING.
EXPECT THE OVERALL COVERAGE TO GO DOWN BRIEFLY...UNTIL A WARM
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE CLOSE IN CLOSER ON
KY BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS TO START UP ONCE MORE...EVEN BEFORE WE
RECEIVE THE INFLUENCE FROM DAYTIME HEATING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY.
WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR POPS AND TIMING...LOWERING THEM
SLIGHTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT FOR THE ABOVE
MENTIONED LOSS OF FORCING. UNFORTUNATELY...IN THIS TYPE OF SET
UP...GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT AND UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL ENSURE
PRECIP WILL OCCUR...BUT THE EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS
PRECIP IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...AND DIFFERS FROM MODEL TO
MODEL. GIVEN THE LATEST NAM12 FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY...SO
KEPT WITH ONLY RAIN CHANCES UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON WHEN NEAR SURFACE
TEMPS ARE ABLE TO WARM ENOUGH TO INCREASE THE LAPSE RATES. THE
BEST INSTABILITY WILL ACTUALLY BE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE
COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH SINKS SOUTHWARD AND NEARS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
THERE IS MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE PERIOD...BUT
THE ECMWF AND GFS THEN BEGIN TO SHOW MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES AS TIME PROGRESSES INTO THE WEEKEND.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SITUATED WEST/EAST NORTH OF OUR
AREA...WITH FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO BRINGING PLENTIFUL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. A COMBINATION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
SHORTWAVES ALOFT PASSING THROUGH WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE
NATION AND TRACK NE OVER THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL
PULL THE FRONT NORTHWARD INITIALLY...AND THEN SEND A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY OR FRIDAY EVENING.
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING A RETURN OF DRY WEATHER...BUT MODELS
DO NOT AGREE ON THE EXTENT OF COOLING. HAVE USED A COMPROMISE/BLEND
AT THIS POINT FOR TEMPS. MODELS ALSO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN THE
EVENTUAL HANDLING A SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE IN SOUTHERN CA
OR NORTHERN MEXICAN BAJA ON SATURDAY. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT EASTWARD
FASTER THAN THE GFS. HAVE ONLY USED LOW POPS TO FINISH THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE SYSTEM POSSIBLY HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD ON THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH CEILINGS
WILL BE LOWERING WITH TIME. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL THREATEN
TOWARDS DAWN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN
AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE DAY...WITH EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING. CEILINGS WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER TO
MVFR NEAR AND WEST OF I-75 BY NIGHTFALL...WITH A BIT LESS
UNCERTAINTY TO THE EAST...WHERE LOW END VFR MAY HANG ON. WINDS
WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY OUT OF
THE SOUTH.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN/JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
126 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1118 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE THINNED SOMEWHAT IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
THE EASTERN VALLEYS CONTINUE TO DROP OFF...NOW REPORTING IN THE
MID 40S...WHILE RIDGES ARE IN THE UPPER 50S. HAVE INCLUDED MORE
OF A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT THROUGH THE NIGHT...UNTIL CLOUDS LOWER AND
THICKEN MORE TOWARDS DAWN. WILL HANG ONTO THE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS DAWN...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST RUNS OF
THE HRRR HAVE TRENDED DRIER. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 757 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
THICK HIGH CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. LOOKING UPSTREAM...DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
THINNING...WITH CEILINGS ONLY LOWERING WITH TIME THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THIS WILL AFFECT THE LOW TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER GIVEN THE
STILL VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE AND EASTERN VALLEYS ARE
DROPPING A BIT QUICKER THAN FORECAST...WILL STICK WITH THE
FORECAST LOWS FOR NOW. UPDATES WILL BE FORTHCOMING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
A RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CONUS WITH A TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. WITHIN THIS
FLOW WAS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE THE AXIS OF WHICH IS STARTING TO MOVE
EAST OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AND EASTERN KY WITH A SHORTWAVE
UPSTREAM MOVING FORM THE PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION.
LOCALLY AT PRESENT THE AIR MASS IS VERY DRY WITH DEW POINTS AT
THIS TIME GENERALLY FROM ABOUT 10 IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE
FAR SOUTHEAST TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S IN THE FAR NW. THIS IS
LEADING TO CURRENT RH IN THE 13 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE MOST
PART. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE CONTINUE TO
ENCROACH...AND A SIGN OF INCREASING MOISTURE ON THE WAY IN THE
WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT ON OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING HIGH AND AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY WORKING FROM THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN THIS FLOW RATHER
DRAMATICALLY FROM PRESENT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. PW IS PROGGED TO
CLIMB FROM AROUND 0.25 TO 0.40 INCHES AT PRESENT TO 0.75 TO 1 INCH
RANGE AROUND DAYBREAK. EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD DROP OFF
QUICKLY THIS EVENING DEPENDING ON THICKNESS OF THE CIRRUS AND THE
TIMING OF MID LEVEL DECK ARRIVAL. ATTM...HAVE A FEW POINTS IN THE
BIG SANDY REGION FALLING TO 40 OR THE LOWER 40S.
PW SHOULD THEN FURTHER INCREASE ON MONDAY INTO THE 1 TO 1.25 INCH
RANGE AND THEN REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. TOTAL
TOTALS ARE ALSO PROJECTED TO CREEP UP TOWARD 50 BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO SOME THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH SHOWERS WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT MAINLY ON MONDAY
MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TIMING DETAILS...AREAL EXTENT AND QPF...BUT
WITH A RATHER MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN
PLACE...AND CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON...EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
AND MOS GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARD A BETTER THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
THERE IS MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE PERIOD...BUT
THE ECMWF AND GFS THEN BEGIN TO SHOW MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES AS TIME PROGRESSES INTO THE WEEKEND.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SITUATED WEST/EAST NORTH OF OUR
AREA...WITH FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO BRINGING PLENTIFUL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. A COMBINATION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
SHORTWAVES ALOFT PASSING THROUGH WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE
NATION AND TRACK NE OVER THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL
PULL THE FRONT NORTHWARD INITIALLY...AND THEN SEND A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY OR FRIDAY EVENING.
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING A RETURN OF DRY WEATHER...BUT MODELS
DO NOT AGREE ON THE EXTENT OF COOLING. HAVE USED A COMPROMISE/BLEND
AT THIS POINT FOR TEMPS. MODELS ALSO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN THE
EVENTUAL HANDLING A SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE IN SOUTHERN CA
OR NORTHERN MEXICAN BAJA ON SATURDAY. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT EASTWARD
FASTER THAN THE GFS. HAVE ONLY USED LOW POPS TO FINISH THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE SYSTEM POSSIBLY HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD ON THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH CEILINGS
WILL BE LOWERING WITH TIME. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL THREATEN
TOWARDS DAWN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN
AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE DAY...WITH EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING. CEILINGS WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER TO
MVFR NEAR AND WEST OF I-75 BY NIGHTFALL...WITH A BIT LESS
UNCERTAINTY TO THE EAST...WHERE LOW END VFR MAY HANG ON. WINDS
WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY OUT OF
THE SOUTH.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN/JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
447 AM CDT MON APR 6 2015
.DISCUSSION...
A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION IS MOVING ACROSS CNTRL TX THIS MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE IN THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT.
MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS WAY TOO WET...DEPICTING QUITE A BIT
OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA ALREADY THAT IS NOT PRESENT..AND DID NOT
PICK UP ON THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER CNTRL TX. HRRR SEEMS TO
HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT CONDITIONS AND BRINGS THE
WEAKENING CLUSTER INTO OUR NW ZONES...LIKELY ALONG OR JUST SOUTH
OF I-30...TODAY BUT APPEARS TO BE TO FAST. 06Z NAM HAS THE
CLUSTER AND SEEMS TO HANDLE TIMING WELL BUT DISSIPATES THE
CONVECTION REACH OUR AREA. HAVE COMPROMISED BY GOING SLIGHT CHANCE
AREAWIDE THIS MORNING FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND THEN TRIMMING THE
POPS BACK SLIGHTLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY REMNANTS
OF THE TX CONVECTION. PRECIP SHOULD END BY SUNSET THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE DIFFICULT. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER MAY REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO BREAK LATE BUT
QUICK WARMING SHOULD OCCUR IF THE CLOUDS TO SCATTER. BEST CHANCES
FOR SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BE SOUTH OF I-20.
THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE PAC NW COAST SHOULD BE MOVING
ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SFC...A LEE TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT SHOULD ORGANIZE AND MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA. LARGE
SCALE ASCENT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH MAY LEAD TO SOME CONVECTION
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-30 BY LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. BEST
DYNAMICS FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE NORTH OF OUR AREA AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW TRACK ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH
KS/IA. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD STILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME SEVERE TSTMS THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH THE GULF COAST BEFORE STALLING BRIEFLY
AND MOVING BACK NWD AS A WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
RAIN IN THE FORECAST PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF I-20. 00Z
GFS/ECMWF...WHILE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS PARTICULAR
RUN...ARE VERY INCONSISTENT ON A RUN-TO-RUN BASIS REGARDING
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE REGION
DURING DAY 7-8 TIME FRAME FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE DETAILS REMAIN SKETCHY...IT APPEARS MORE
UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER IS ON THE WAY. /09/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 80 64 83 65 / 20 10 10 10
MLU 79 65 84 65 / 20 10 10 10
DEQ 75 62 78 62 / 20 10 10 10
TXK 77 63 81 63 / 20 10 10 10
ELD 76 63 80 64 / 20 10 10 10
TYR 80 64 82 65 / 20 10 10 10
GGG 79 64 82 65 / 20 10 10 10
LFK 81 65 83 67 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
09
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
438 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A CONFLUENT W FLOW
OVER THE UPR LKS BTWN ARCTIC BRANCH CLOSED LO OVER NRN QUEBEC AND
POLAR/SUBTROPICAL BRANCH UPR RDG IN THE NRN PLAINS. THERE IS A SHARP
H85 WARM FNT ORIENTED W-E ACRS THE UPR MIDWEST SEPARATING THE VERY
COLD AIR OVER ONTARIO...WHERE THE 00Z H85 TEMP WAS -16C AT YPL FROM
MUCH WARMER AIR IN THE CENTRAL CONUS...WHERE THE 00Z H85 TEMP WAS 9C
AT OMAHA. A RATHER NARROW W-E BAND OF SN IN THE GENERAL ISENTROPIC
ASCENT N OF THE WARM FNT AND UNDER SOME UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF 120KT H3
JET MAX IN SE CANADA IS ORIENTED FM CENTRAL MN ACRS NRN WI INTO MNM
COUNTY EARLY THIS MRNG ALONG AXIS OF SHARPEST FGEN BEST DEFINED IN
THE H7-6 LYR. BUT OVERALL DRYNESS OF THE LLVL AIRMASS IN THE AREA...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS TO THE N CLOSER TO SFC HI PRES ORIENTED FM SRN
MANITOBA ACRS FAR NRN LK SUP AND INTO SW QUEBEC...IS LIMITING THE
COVERAGE OF THE PCPN TO A FAIRLY NARROW BAND. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
INDICATES INCRSG REFLECTIVITIES IN MN AHEAD OF A SHRTWV MOVING E
THRU THE NRN PLAINS AS INDICATED ON WV IMAGERY.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WL FOCUS ON POPS/SN AMOUNTS
OVER MAINLY THE SRN TIER COUNTIES THIS MRNG ASSOCIATED WITH NARROW
BAND OF SN AND NEEDED HEADLINES.
TODAY...SHRTWV/AREA OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC NOW BRINGING
ENHANCEMENT TO THE PCPN OVER MN AND NRN WI IS FCST TO SLIDE E EARLY
THIS MRNG...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MORE FOCUSED DYNAMIC SUPPORT TO THE
CWA MAINLY TRHU MID MRNG. RECENT RADAR TRENDS SHOWING SOME
INTENSIFICATION OF THE ECHOES IN NW WI SUPPORT SOME OF THE RECENT
HIER RES MODEL FCSTS LIKE THE 00Z NAM OF THE HIER QPF UP TO ABOUT
0.30-0.35 INCH DRIFTING FARTHER TO THE N INTO THE WI BORDER
COUNTIES...A QPF CONSISTENT WITH THE 3 G/KG SPECIFIC HUMIDITY
PRESENT ARND H7. RATHER HI...NARROW DGZ SHOWN ON FCST SDNGS WL NOT
SUPPORT SN/WATER RATIO MUCH HIER THAN 10:1 IN THIS AREA. CONSIDERING
ADDING THESE COUNTIES TO ADVY...BUT POTENTIAL IMPACT OF LLVL DRY AIR
TO THE N THAT MIGHT LOWER THE QPF TO WHAT IS SHOWN ON SOME OF THE
OTHER HI RES MODELS LIKE THE HRRR INDICATE AN SPS FOR UP TO ABOUT 3
INCHES NEAR THE BORDER IN IRON AND DICKINSON COUNTIES AS WELL
AS DELTA COUNTY MIGHT BE A BETTER STATEGY. WL MAINTAIN THE WINTER WX
ADVY FOR MENOMINEE COUNTY. SINCE FCST SDNGS DO NOT SHOW AN ELEVATED
WARM LYR THAT FEATURES TEMPS ABOVE 0C...REMOVED THE MENTION OF MIXED
PCPN THIS MRNG. THE EXTENT OF THE DRY AIR TO THE N WL LIKELY RESULT
IN A SHARPER NRN EDGE OF THE MORE SGNFT PCPN THAN IS SHOWN BY THE
MODELS. ARRIVAL OF QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING SHRTWV BY LATE MRNG WL CAUSE THE SN BAND TO DIMINISH...WITH
LINGERING LGT PCPN OVER THE SCENTRAL TRANSITIONING TO A MIX OF
SN WITH SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT RA AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE MID/UPR 30S.
ARRIVAL OF SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE NRN TIER COUNTIES THIS AFTN WL
END ANY LINGERING PCPN THERE EVEN AS SOME CLDS LINGER.
TNGT...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE HINTS ANOTHER SHRTWV/SOME DYNAMIC SUPPORT
WL PUSH INTO THE AREA FM THE W IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...THE
CONTINUED ARRIVAL OF DRIER LLVL AIR SHOULD LIMIT POPS TO THE
SCENTRAL. TENDED TO CUT POPS FM PREVIOUS FCST ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NRN TIER...WITH NO HIER THAN CHC POPS EVEN NEAR THE WI BORDER.
LINGERING CLDS WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL EVEN WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF LLVL DRIER AIR.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
THE LONG TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A FRUSTRATING EXPERIENCE WHEN
ATTEMPTING TO PIN DOWN THE FINER DETAILS OF THE FORECAST. ESPECIALLY
WITH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
DISTURBANCES AND HAVING THERMAL PROFILES THAT SUPPORT MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND FREEZING RAIN.
THE START OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST HAS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
BETWEEN A HIGH MOVING EAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE WARM FRONT DRAPED
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THIS
WARM FRONT SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH ON TUESDAY...WOULD EXPECT THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION TO STAY SOUTH OF THE CWA...BUT THE AREA
CONTINUES TO SEE WEAK SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND THROUGH THE REGION. WITH THE FLUCTUATIONS
IN THE MODELS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...WILL OPT TO TREND THE
FORECAST IN THE LATEST DIRECTIONS WITH OUT GETTING TOO SPECIFIC.
THEREFORE FOR TUESDAY...THINK THE DRY AIR (BETWEEN 850-750MB)
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO WILL KEEP THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA DRY WHILE THE AREA ALONG THE WISCONSIN
BORDER MAY SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
850-700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION INITIALLY IN THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF THE ICE CRYSTALS CUTTING OUT...OPTED TO KEEP
P-TYPE AS SNOW DUE THE THE AMOUNT OF DRYING OCCURRING IN THE
MORNING. ALTHOUGH THAT DRY AIR IS MOVING IN...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FORCING/MOISTURE WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND 700-600MB TO
SUPPORT CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST 2/3RDS OF THE CWA.
AS THE SURFACE LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES IS SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ANOTHER
STRONGER SHORTWAVE LIFTS EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS STAGE...THINK THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL STAY TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA (TRACKING
THROUGH NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AND INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN). BUT
THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR CHANCES OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE U.P. LOOKING
AT THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...EXPECT MUCH OF THIS PRECIP TO FALL AS
SNOW...BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL WARMING OVER SOUTHERN
MENOMINEE COUNTY TO PARTIALLY MELT THE SNOWFLAKES...LEADING TO SOME
SLEET OR MAYBE EVEN FREEZING RAIN. THAT WAVE QUICKLY DEPARTS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...SO WOULD EXPECT A DRYING
TREND AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE (FROM
THE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST OF JAMES BAY) SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE CWA.
THAT WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THE NEXT WAVE WILL EJECT TOWARDS THE REGION UNDER THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. IN ADDITION TO THE SHORTWAVE...WARM AIR
WILL SURGE NORTH OVER THE REGION...WITH 850-800MB TEMPS WARMING
ABOVE 5C. THUS...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS THROUGH THIS WARM
LAYER WILL MELT AND THE P-TYPE WILL DEPEND ON THE NEAR SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE EXISTING COLD AIR FROM THE DEPARTING
HIGH...WOULD EXPECT PRIMARILY FREEZING RAIN FOR THE START OF THE
EVENT (LOWEST 2KFT ARE BELOW FREEZING)...AS IT DOESN/T LOOK LIKE
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE FOR SLEET. THE
ARRIVAL TIME OF THE PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CRUCIAL FOR THE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FORECAST AS
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH MID
MORNING BEFORE WARMING SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW HIGH CHANCE OR EVEN LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA STARTING VERY
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING THROUGH THURSDAY.
HOPEFULLY...MODELS WILL CLOSE IN ON THE LOCATION OF THE BEST
PRECIPITATION FOR THIS PERIOD...AS IT APPEARS TO BE A DECENT
OPPORTUNITY FOR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE U.P.. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THIS THREAT IN THE HWO AND WITH THE INCREASING CONFIDENCE
START TO PROVIDE A LITTLE MORE DETAIL.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY/SATURDAY...BUT MODELS STILL DIFFERING ON THE DETAILS. WHILE
THE CONSISTENCY IS LACKING...THE LATEST TRENDS WITH THE 00Z MODELS
IS FOR A QUICKER LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WHICH
WOULD ALLOW IT TO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM. THE 00Z ECMWF MADE
A SIGNIFICANT JUMP TOWARDS THE FASTER SOLUTION SEEN IN THE PREVIOUS
GFS RUNS. THAT IS A SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURE FROM THE 12Z ECMWF/GEM
ENSEMBLE MEANS...SO IT WILL BE INTERESTING IF THAT TREND CONTINUES.
OVERALL...FELT A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS WAS REASONABLE FOR
THE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD...WHICH HAS THE NEXT
WAVE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. WITH THE FASTER AND
FARTHER SOUTHEAST TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...A TRANSITION FROM RAIN
OR FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN
ON FRIDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME MEASURABLE ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE
WEST...BUT IT IS STILL WAY TO FAR OUT AND UNCERTAIN TO HAVE AN
INDICATION ON AMOUNTS.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA...SATURDAY COULD SEE SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY. ANOTHER
STRONG SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA ON SATURDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THAT SETS THE
STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE START TO THE NEXT WORK WEEK (RAINY AND POSSIBLY
SOME THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW ON THE
BACKSIDE FOR TUESDAY THE 14TH).
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE LOWER MIDWEST/MID MS VLY REGION MOVES
SLOWLY NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT SOME LIGHT SNOW AND LOWER CIGS WL
BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO UPPER MI...HOWEVER THE DRY NE SFC WIND WILL
KEEP THE HEAVIEST SNOW CONFINED CLOSER TO IRON MOUNTAIN AND
MENOMINEE. THEREFORE...WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO IWD AND SAW
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH LOW END MVFR OR IFR CIGS. DUE TO CMX BEING
FARTHEST FROM THE MOISTURE AND WARM FRONT...EXPECT THAT SITE TO
REMAIN VFR OR HIGH END MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS
THROUGH MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRES RDG BEGINS TO BUILD
BACK IN FROM NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
WITH LAKE SUPERIOR SITUATED BETWEEN A HIGH IN SOUTHERN CANADA AND A
WARM FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...EXPECT EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE TIME...WINDS
WILL BE BELOW 25KTS...BUT FUNNELING DOWN THE WESTERN THIRD OF
LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO 30KTS. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY THERE COULD BE
NORTH-NORTHEAST GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AS IT MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ012.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
135 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1039 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
MID LEVEL RETURNS HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS PER
LATEST APX 88D BASE REF LOOP...AND CERTAINLY UPSTREAM RADARS ARE
SHOWING A STEADY INCREASE IN RETURNS AS WELL. NO SIGN OF ANY
PRECIP ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND YET PER REGION SURFACE OBS...
BUT STILL EXPECT THIS WILL CHANGE AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LATEST NAM IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH WITH THE DEVELOPING
BAND OF PRECIP...WITH A BIT LESS QPF. LATEST HRRR DOESN`T EVEN
PRODUCE ANY QPF UNTIL THE BAND HAS REACHED THE STRAITS AND ERN UPR
MICHIGAN TOWARD DAYBREAK. RADAR TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST THAT WE WILL
SEE AT LEAST SOME PRECIP LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NRN TWO-THIRDS
OF OUR CWA ONCE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER LIFT WITHIN THE DGZ
ARRIVE. SEE NO COMPELLING REASON TO STRAY FROM DEVELOPING
CATEGORICAL POPS OVERNIGHT FOR MUCH OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN....WITH
ONLY AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW EXPECTED. COULD STILL SEE SOME RAIN
MIX IN ACROSS OUR FAR SRN COUNTIES.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN TONIGHT.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: MID/UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS MAINTENANCE OF CONFLUENT FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LAKES....FORCING A STALLED SURFACE RESPONSE WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
LINED UP FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
EARLY FGEN DRIVEN SNOW BAND A THING OF THE PAST AS LOW LEVEL JET
VEERED AND WEAKENED. STILL PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-
55. FURTHER NORTH...A RATHER PLEASANT EASTER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AND LIGHT WINDS...ALTHOUGH GOTTA ADMIT TEMPERATURES ARE A TOUCH ON
THE COOL SIDE WITH READINGS MOSTLY IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. SOME
CHANGES STARTING TO OCCUR JUST UPSTREAM...WITH NOTED SLOW HEIGHT
RISES BACK ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOW LEVEL JET WILL
RAMP UP ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE...HELPING DRIVE CURRENT
STATIONARY H8 FRONT NORTHWARD AND SPAWNING ANOTHER ROUND OF FGEN
DRIVEN PRECIP INTO OUR AREA.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: PLENTY! MAIN FOCUS CENTERED ON
EVOLUTION OF EXPECTED EXPANDING PRECIP BAND (INCLUDING TIMING AND
TYPE THIS PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE) LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND HEADLINE CONSIDERATION WILL ALSO NEED
ADDRESSING.
DETAILS: RATHER QUIET CONDITIONS TO START THIS EVENING. CHALLENGES
RAMP-UP CONSIDERABLY HEADING THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
SAID LOW LEVEL JET RESPONSE AND FGEN INTENSIFY. NOT A TON OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WITH ANALYZED PWAT VALUES LESS THAN HALF AN
INCH EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SHOULD IMPROVE
SOME WITH INTENSIFYING SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SOUTH SIDE OF FRONTAL
AXIS...WITH CORRIDOR OF HALF INCH PWATS PUSHING INTO THE LAKES
OVERNIGHT. INCREASED AND FOCUSED CONVERGENCE ALONG SLOWLY NORTHWARD
BOWING H8 FRONT SHOULD ENTICE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP ALONG AND NORTH
OF ITS AXIS...WHICH SHOULD EXPAND/INTENSIFY/AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATER TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. CROSS SECTIONS CONCUR...WITH EXCELLENT SLOPED FGEN SIGNAL AND
FORCED WARM SIDE AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE. EVEN SOME HINTS OF REDUCED
INSTABILITY ALOFT (EPV VALUES JUST STRADDLING ZERO)...PLACED NICELY
WITHIN AREA OF MAX OMEGA AND GOOD DEEP LAYER SATURATION. FORCING
LOOKS TO REACH MATURITY IN THE M-72/M-68 CORRIDOR DURING THE EARLY
MORNING. BAND(S) SHOULD REMAIN JUST TRANSIENT ENOUGH TO PREVENT
REALLY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS...BUT COULD EASILY SEE SOME AREAS
APPROACH A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH OF LIQUID BY MORNING.
AFTER AN INITIAL RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE THIS EVENING...INTENSIFYING
DYNAMICS/COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN A QUICK CHANGEOVER
TO SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF M-55. WARM NOSE SOUTH OF H8 FRONT PUNCHES
IN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF M-72...JUST AS HEAVIEST PRECIP IS
ENDING. WILL CONTINUE THEME OF RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE AS THIS
OCCURS...INTRODUCING SOME FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL WITH STILL COLD
LOW LEVELS. NOT EXPECTING THIS TO BE A BIG DEAL AS HIGHEST PRECIP
RATES WILL HAVE ENDED BY THE TIME THIS OCCURS.
SNOW TOTALS: LOOKS LIKE A QUICK HITTING INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL LOWER UP TO THE TIP OF THE MITT. LESS AMOUNTS SOUTH
(RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE) AND EASTERN UPPER (LATER START/WEAKER DYNAMICS).
NOT SEEING THE NEED FOR A HEADLINE...BUT WILL KICK AROUND THE IDEA
OF A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO RAISE CONCERN FOR SOME SNOW-
COVERED AND SLUSHY ROADS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS TIME PERIOD IS PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
TIMING AS NORTHERN MICHIGAN REMAINS IN A ZONAL FLOW WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. 295K ISENTROPIC SURFACE
SHOWS GULF MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD THROUGH 700MB AS FAR
NORTH AS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE INDICATED PWATS
THROUGHOUT THE TIME PERIOD OF BETWEEN 0.5 AND 0.75 INCHES. WITH THE
AMPLE MOISTURE AND ADDED LIFT FROM THE DIVERGENT QUADRANT OF THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET
OVERHEAD...PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL EXISTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A MAJOR
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AGREE WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING RAIN
POSSIBLE. EASTERLY WINDS TRANSPORTING COLDER AIR WRAPPING AROUND A
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA MAY COLLIDE WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED GULF MOISTURE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS (700MB AND
BELOW)...WITH THE TOP OF THE SATURATED LAYER FORECAST TO ONLY REACH
TO THE -6C ISOTHERM. AS TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING TUESDAY
NIGHT THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY DRIZZLE/RAIN FREEZING ON THE
SIDEWALK/ROAD SURFACES WOULD BECOME A PROBLEM THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. WILL LEAVE THIS OUT OF THE
FORECAST UNTIL CONFIDENCE GETS HIGHER WITH CONSISTENT/FUTURE MODEL
TRENDS. ANY OTHER PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD WILL FALL AS
SNOW OR A SNOW/RAIN MIX DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS UNTIL IT CHANGES OVER TO ALL RAIN WITH DIURNAL HEATING. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL BE LIGHT...IF ANY...AND WILL MELT QUICKLY
ON ROAD SURFACES AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE PERSISTENTLY OUT OF
THE EAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAVING THE HIGHEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25
MPH. HIGHS THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD WILL BE MID 30S TO LOW 40S WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM...BUT
SOME LATE WEEK/WEEKEND PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE IN THE CARDS. 500
MB TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF PAC NW COAST WILL BE MOVING INLAND WED/THU.
THE STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THIS IS THE MAIN CAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY...AS
THIS WILL BE PROPAGATING THE LOW OUT OF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. PRECIP WILL START AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW...AS
THERE WILL BE SOME 500 MB SHORTWAVE IMPULSES PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...ALONG WITH A WARM FRONT SETTING UP THROUGH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN ATTENDANT TO THE APPROACHING LOW. THINGS WILL
CLEAR OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
PERIODS OF -SN OR MIXED PRECIP AT APN/PLN/TVC...MAINLY THIS
MORNING.
PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE GENERATED AT TIMES...NORTH OF A
STALLED FRONT DOWNSTATE. MOST OF THIS WILL BE NORTH OF MBL...BUT
THE OTHER TAF SITES WILL CONTEND WITH PERIODS OF -SN OR
-SNRA...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN AT
TIMES. TVC/MBL WILL BE LARGELY VFR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE
APN/PLN WILL RIDE THE EDGE OF MVFR/IFR.
EASTERLY WINDS TODAY APN/PLN...LIGHTER/VARIABLE WINDS TVC/MBL.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
EAST FLOW WILL INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. SAME STORY HEADING THROUGH SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT HOVERS ACROSS THE AREA. NEXT ROUND OF MARINE
HEADLINES LOOKS TO OCCUR ON TUESDAY AS NORTHEAST WINDS STRENGTHEN
WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...TJL
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...MSB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1242 AM CDT MON APR 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT MON APR 6 2015
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE PCPN A LITTLE BIT AS DRY AIR FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA. PCPN WILL START AS
RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE MIXING
WITH AND THEN CHANGING TO ALL SNOW. REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK
HIT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 10
AM MONDAY. AREAS IN THE ADVISORY WILL LIKELY SEE 2 TO 4
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING TO
THE EAST INTO SRN MN. SOUTH OF THE FRONT THERE IS VERY STRONG WAA
IN THE MID LEVELS...ACROSS A DEEP LAYER...WHICH IS PRODUCING A
STRENGTHENING BAND OF F-GEN JUST SOUTH OF THE TWIN CITIES. AS
EVIDENT ON THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS. CLOUD COVER AND RADAR ECHOES
ARE STARTING TO INTENSIFY WITH THIS AREA OF ENHANCEMENT AND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THOUGH THE EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF THIS
RELATIVELY STRONG MESOSCALE FORCING AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET AND CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONG LIFT AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT WILL OCCUR
IN A FAVORABLE REGION OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WHICH WILL
ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION RATES TO INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL COOL THE COLUMN AND CHANGE ANY RAIN OVER TO
ALL SNOW RELATIVELY QUICKLY. SO...WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR
PERIODIC HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES DURING THIS TIME...WITH A QUICK 2 TO
4 INCHES OVER THE ADVISORY AREA.
A BRIEF BREAK IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SRN
COUNTIES AGAIN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME SITUATED BETWEEN VERY DRY CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO...AND A WARM FRONT WITH
INCREASING WARMTH AND MOISTURE OVER SRN MN THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
ALTHOUGH LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A THERMAL
BOUNDARY BECOMES THE FOCUS FOR ONGOING SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL
MINN AND NRN WISCONSIN. AT THIS TIME...THE IRON RANGE AND ARROWHEAD
REGIONS OF NE MINN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH.
AT THIS TIME...THE BULK OF THE QPF/SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTOGENESIS MON/MON NIGHT LOOKS TO AFFECT AREAS IN CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. CARRYING LIKELY POPS FOR
RAIN/SNOW MONDAY NIGHT FROM THE BRAINERD/MILLE LACS AREA...EAST INTO
THE HAYWARD LAKES.
FOCUS TURNS TO LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT DIGS ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH
MID WEEK...DEEPENING INTO A CLOSED LOW IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
THURSDAY. LATEST ECMWF/GFS/GEM ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW
BECOMES CUT OFF AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS ACROSS IA/MN AND INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE SLOWER
ECMWF SOLUTION FOR POPS AND WINDS. ALTHOUGH VERY FAR OUT IN THE
EXTENDED RANGE...IF THIS LOW CAN MATERIALIZE...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING MUCH NEEDED QPF/RAINFALL OF A HALF
INCH OR MORE TO MUCH OF THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT MON APR 6 2015
BAND OF SNOW IS IN THE PROCESS OF SETTING UP GENERALLY IN VICINITY
OF KHYR AND KBRD AS OF TAF ISSUANCE...BRINGING MVFR CEILINGS AND
IFR VISIBILITIES. THIS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH 15-18Z BEFORE
GRADUALLY RETURNING TO VFR. KDLH SHOULD BE ON THE FRINGES OF THIS
BAND...AND SHOULD HAVE A SHORTER PERIOD OF MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS
UNTIL 12Z BEFORE ALSO RETURNING TO VFR. CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD...THOUGH CEILINGS WILL BE
LOWERING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION DUE IN
AROUND 06Z TONIGHT FOR KBRD AND KHYR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 26 35 28 39 / 40 40 20 0
INL 22 43 25 45 / 0 10 10 0
BRD 28 39 27 45 / 60 40 20 10
HYR 28 39 28 45 / 70 40 20 10
ASX 27 36 29 42 / 50 40 20 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ034-
036-038.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
WIZ006>009.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY
FOR LSZ144-145.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...LE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1131 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2015
.UPDATE:
Issued at 934 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2015
Low to mid level cloudiness has spread northward through most of
our forecast area this evening. A small area or band of mainly
light showers moved through portions of southeast MO and was now
moving eastward through southwest IL; from VIH, UVV and FAM and
now about to move through SAR. This activity will likely shift
east-southeast of our forecast area by midnight. The latest HRRR
model run has most of its precipitation southeast of our forecast
area for late tonight. With a southwesterly low level jet
continuing to bring low level temperature and moisture advection
to the region, particularly to the southern half of our forecast
area, along with weak shortwaves moving eastward through the
region, still expecting additional isolated to scattered light
showers late tonight across southeast MO and southwest IL, with a
few sprinkles possible further north. Low temperatures tonight
will be much warmer compared to the previous two nights due to the
cloud cover, southerly surface winds, low level warm air advection,
and higher surface dew points. Minimum temperatures tonight should
be about 5-10 degrees above normal for early April.
GKS
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 414 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2015
Southerly flow on the western side of the high pressure system over
the eastern seaboard is bringing warmer temperatures and increasing
low level moisture to the area. Even with deep mixing over the area
today, surface dewpoint temperatures are around 5 to 10 degrees
higher than they were yesterday. This moistening trend will
continue tonight and ceilings are expected to lower and thicken.
Warm south flow and abundant cloud cover should make for a warmer
night tonight with temperatures mainly in the mid to upper 40s; and
the more urbanized areas of St. Louis may not drop out of the lower
50s. All of this moisture advection is producing light QPF in the
models. However, it is fairly typical for this QPF to be overdone,
and the high resolution WRF models as well as the HRRR are showing
only very light/low probability precipitation. Have therefore
reduced PoPs to sight chance for most of the night...increasing to
low chance by 12Z over the eastern Ozarks.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 414 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2015
NWP output is maintaining fairly good run to run and model to model
consistency as we head into the new work week. Primary forecast
concern continues to be precipitation chances, with all solutions
maintaining the idea of a strong mid level cap dominating much of
the forecast area into Wednesday.
For Monday the odds of measurable rain still appear to be quite
small, with the rain chances (such as they are) tied to stratified
low level moisture trapped beneath the mid level inversion...which
also makes the odds of any convection quite small over most of the
CWA. In general have kept PoPs in the 15-30% range, and have
There are still indications that the increasing low level jet will
lead to the development of elevated convection on the eastern
fringes of the warmer mid level temps late Monday night and into
Tuesday morning. Forecast soundings from both NAM and GFS indicate
that genesis region for this development may be over
northern/central IL with the activity just clipping our CWA, but QPF
output from the ECMWF certainly suggests development much further to
the southwest...generally along the Mississippi River. For now I`ve
continued with high end chance/low likely PoPs for
northeast/easterns sections of our CWA. Elsewhere during this time
frame time PoPs should remain quite low as strong mid level cap
remains in place, although models do suggest some very weak
shortwaves and mid level moisture working across the area that could
lead to some elevated precip.
Frontal boundary drops south late Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday
night before stalling out from the northern Ozarks into southern IL
on Wednesday morning. Have continued chance PoPs in most areas
during this time, but once again these may be too high if the very
warm mid level temps forecast by the NAM/GFS verify.
Threat of storms should begin to ramp over parts of the CWA on Wednesday.
Not certain how much activity (if any) there will be Wednesday
morning, but all guidance indicates WAA ramping up during the
afternoon as upper level trofs begins to push into the western
Plains. This should set the stage for overrunning convection to
develop over northwest MO during the afternoon as low level ascent
is finally able to overcome the mid level cap. Elsewhere the cap
may still be tough to overcome, but with the boundary in the area
I have continued chance PoPs.
Several rounds of storms are expected from Wednesday night...Thursday...and
into Thursday night...as shortwave energy is ejected into the mid
Mississippi Valley from strong upper level trof pushing into the
Plains. These disturbances will finally erode the mid level
capping, and allow the energy from the increasingly unstable low
level AMS to be released, and have carried likely and higher PoPs
for most of the CWA during this period. Obviously, severe weather
remains a very real concern...especially on Thursday and Thursday
night...due to strength of upper level system, large scale shear,
and expected instability of the early summer airmass.
Passage of the cold front should end the thunderstorm threat over
eastern sections of the CWA on Friday morning, followed by drier and
cooler weather on Saturday. However, medium range models are
suggesting the development of return flow will mean another threat
of showers and storms by Sunday.
Truett
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2015
With low level moisture on the increase will continue to see mvfr
cigs advect north and northeast into forecast area. All taf sites
to be down to mvfr by 12z Monday and remain between 1500 and 3000
feet for rest of forecast period. Winds to persist from the south.
As for precipitation chances, scattered at best so kept mention
out of tafs for now.
Specifics for KSTL:
With low level moisture on the increase will continue to see mvfr
cigs advect north and northeast into forecast area. Cigs will be down
to mvfr by 11z Monday and remain between 1500 and 3000 feet for
rest of forecast period. Winds to persist from the south. As for
precipitation chances, scattered at best so kept only added vcnty
shower mention after 06z Tuesday.
Byrd
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
406 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL NEW YORK TONIGHT AND
PRODUCING INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THE
WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FOCUS FOR NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER
INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK, WITH A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND WET
SNOW. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL HIGHS WITH NEAR NORMAL LOWS. THOUGH
BRIEF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY, THE PATTERN BEGINS TO
TURN ACTIVE AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 123 AM EDT MONDAY...GOING FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE.
A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN SCATTERED ACROSS PARTS
OF THE NORTHERN TIER. NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 718 PM SUNDAY...
WEAK MESOSCALE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND DRAPED INTO CENTRAL VERMONT MARKED BY A BREAK IN DEW
POINTS BY ABOUT 5-8 DEGREES AND DIFFERENCE IN WIND DIRECTION
(NORTH VS SOUTHWEST). THIS IS ACTUALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR A
REGENERATION OF CLOUDS AND HAS EVEN TOUCHED OFF A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. LATEST HRRR AND OTHER HI-RES MODELS MAINTAIN THIS WEAK
FEATURE FOR ABOUT THE FIRST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE WASHING IT OUT
OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN FRONTAL ZONE THIS EVENING REMAINS WELL TO THE
SOUTH BY THE NY/PA BORDER. THIS WILL PUSH NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT
SPREADING ADDITIONAL CLOUDS INTO THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY SOME
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MONDAY MORNING. LOOKING AT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
20S FOR MOST...WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE IN THE COLDEST
LOCATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT SUNDAY...IT`S AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR
THE NORTH COUNTRY, AS WARM FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT PLAYER IN NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK.
THOUGH THE FRONT WILL OSCILLATE NORTH/SOUTH, WEAK MID-LEVEL VORT
MAXIMA ACTING ON THE BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF CLOUDS AND
SEVERAL PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. IT`S ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE GOVERNED LARGELY BY TIME OF DAY AND
ELEVATION.
SPANNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY, QPF AMOUNTS
RUN FROM A QUARTER INCH FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TO NEAR AN INCH
FOR RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES. ACROSS THAT SAME TIME PERIOD, SNOW
AMOUNTS IN LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE UNDER 2" (MAINLY ON GRASS), BUT TICK
UPWARD TO 4-6" FOR THE HIGHEST NORTHERN SUMMITS.
DAILY SPECIFICS FOLLOW...
FOR MONDAY: AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING TO BEGIN, BUT
AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM EXPECT WET SNOW TO CHANGE TO RAIN. A
PRETTY WELL-DEFINED WARM-FRONTAL BAND EVIDENT IN MOST AVAILABLE 12Z
GUIDANCE ALLOWS FOR POPS TO INCREASE TO LIKELY/LOW CATEGORICAL INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON. BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS, WITH MORE WEIGHT
TOWARDS COLDER MAV NUMBERS GIVEN OVERCAST. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER/MID 40S.
MONDAY NIGHT: 925-850 TEMPS BEGIN TO RISE ABOVE 0C EARLY MONDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER, WARMING ALOFT IS FOR A SHORT TIME AS INITIAL FRONTAL
WAVE EXITS INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE. LEFTOVER RAIN BEGINS TO CHANGE OVER
TO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR BRIEFLY AS ICE PELLETS BUT DECREASING POPS
TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT A SLOW FALL IN TEMPERATURES GIVEN
OVERCAST, FALLING TO LOWS AROUND 30 IN AREAS ADJACENT TO THE
CANADIAN BORDER TO THE UPPER 30S FOR SOUTHERN VT.
TUESDAY: NEXT FRONTAL WAVE ON THE LEFTOVER IMPACTS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. HOWEVER, 12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE GETS
SUPPRESSED A BIT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH THAN ON MONDAY. WITH THE
BOUNDARY BEING SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH, POPS AND QPF ARE HIGHEST FOR
SOUTHERN VT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AND LOWER FURTHEST NORTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE GENERALLY SIMILAR TO THOSE ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT: SECOND FRONTAL WAVE MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE. POPS TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THIS PERIOD WITH RAIN CHANGING TO A MIX OF WET SNOW
AS TEMPERATURE/THICKNESS PROFILES COOL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 406 AM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL GOOD CONSISTENCY IS MAINTAINED
IN THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL MODELS DURING THE LATE WEEK TIME FRAME
AND A LARGELY PERSISTENCE FORECAST WILL BE MAINTAINED (ALBEIT WITH
A FEW CAVEATS) FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS
WE BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE SURFACE WAVE WILL BE EXITING QUICKLY
EAST PUSHING THE SFC FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WITH LINGERING LIGHT
RAINS/SNOWS ENDING FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE
NIGHT. SOME LIGHT ELEVATIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS THERMAL PROFILES COOL IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER BUT ANY QPF WOULD
BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
MODIFIED CP AIRMASS THEN SETTLES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE
MARITIMES AND WEDGES THE SURFACE FRONT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES IN THE FORM OF A STRONG BACKDOOR FRONT. TYPICAL
UNDER SUCH SCENARIOS WILL BE FOR OUR AREA TO BE ON THE SOMEWHAT
MILDER WESTERN EDGE OF THIS COOLER AIRMASS AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW BEGINS BY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT I`VE LEANED CLOSE TO BLENDED
GUIDANCE SHOWING HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER AND MID 40S EAST
AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WEST. PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD BE THE MAIN RULE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, BUT
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY LATER IN THE DAY HERALDING THE ARRIVAL OF THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IN THE PIPELINE.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
FAIRLY ROBUST GREAT LAKES CUTTER-LIKE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE
SAINT LAWRENCE/OTTAWA VALLEYS WITH WIDESPREAD, MAINLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED. INCREASINGLY STRONG WARM THERMAL ADVECTION
IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS, AND IMPRESSIVE PWAT SURGE TO IN EXCESS
OF 1.2 INCHES ALL SPELL A WARMING TREND AS OUR OLD REMNANT POLAR
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES BACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR AREA AS A
WARM FRONT. THIS SYSTEM WILL MARK THE ARRIVAL OF A LONG AWAITED
MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND WILL ACT TO
REORGANIZE THE MID LEVEL FLOW TO MORE WESTERLY, FINALLY ERADICATING
THE PERSISTENT AND ANOMALOUSLY COOL CP AIRMASS WHICH HAS PLAGUED
OUR REGION FOR MOST OF 2015. WITH THE INCREASINGLY STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW LEANED TOWARD THE MILDEST END OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THURSDAY
NIGHT KEEPING MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S AND OFFERING HIGHS
FRIDAY FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID 50S. BIG BUST POTENTIAL ON
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WITH LATE DAY 925 TEMPS RANGING FROM +11 TO
+15 ATOP A FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION (AT LEAST THAT`S WHAT
THE MODELS SUGGEST). IF WE CAN MIX DEEPER THAN 1 KFT, THEN HIGHS
SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S AND 60S COULD OCCUR WHICH DOES NOT SEEM
IMPLAUSIBLE AS WE`LL BE ENTERING THE SYSTEM DRY SLOT.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WE REMAIN IN BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AS DAMPENING PARENT H5 TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. CAN`T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS HERE AND THERE, ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY EVENING AS DEEPER WARM ADVECTION DEPARTS EAST, BUT THE
OVERALL IDEA WILL BE FOR COVERAGE OF PCPN TO BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS
IN THE 50S. SFC HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY
WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER, CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOCALLY NEAR 60.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06 TUESDAY...MIX OF BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH INTO THE REGION
ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT PCPN AFTER 14Z. WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
DURING THE 13-18Z TIME FRAME AND CONTINUING ON AND OFF THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER. SOME IFR
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.
OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...BKN/OVC MVFR/VFR WITH PERIODIC
BOUTS OF MVFR/IFR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS
JUST SOUTH THE AREA WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE
FRONT.
12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE OVER THE REGION.
00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...NEILES/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...BANACOS/JMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
124 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL NEW YORK TONIGHT AND
PRODUCING INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THE
WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FOCUS FOR NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER
INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK, WITH A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND WET
SNOW. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL HIGHS WITH NEAR NORMAL LOWS. THOUGH
BRIEF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY, THE PATTERN BEGINS TO
TURN ACTIVE AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 123 AM EDT MONDAY...GOING FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE.
A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN SCATTERED ACROSS PARTS
OF THE NORTHERN TIER. NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 718 PM SUNDAY...
WEAK MESOSCALE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND DRAPED INTO CENTRAL VERMONT MARKED BY A BREAK IN DEW
POINTS BY ABOUT 5-8 DEGREES AND DIFFERENCE IN WIND DIRECTION
(NORTH VS SOUTHWEST). THIS IS ACTUALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR A
REGENERATION OF CLOUDS AND HAS EVEN TOUCHED OFF A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. LATEST HRRR AND OTHER HI-RES MODELS MAINTAIN THIS WEAK
FEATURE FOR ABOUT THE FIRST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE WASHING IT OUT
OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN FRONTAL ZONE THIS EVENING REMAINS WELL TO THE
SOUTH BY THE NY/PA BORDER. THIS WILL PUSH NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT
SPREADING ADDITIONAL CLOUDS INTO THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY SOME
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MONDAY MORNING. LOOKING AT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
20S FOR MOST...WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE IN THE COLDEST
LOCATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT SUNDAY...IT`S AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR
THE NORTH COUNTRY, AS WARM FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT PLAYER IN NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK.
THOUGH THE FRONT WILL OSCILLATE NORTH/SOUTH, WEAK MID-LEVEL VORT
MAXIMA ACTING ON THE BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF CLOUDS AND
SEVERAL PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. IT`S ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE GOVERNED LARGELY BY TIME OF DAY AND
ELEVATION.
SPANNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY, QPF AMOUNTS
RUN FROM A QUARTER INCH FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TO NEAR AN INCH
FOR RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES. ACROSS THAT SAME TIME PERIOD, SNOW
AMOUNTS IN LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE UNDER 2" (MAINLY ON GRASS), BUT TICK
UPWARD TO 4-6" FOR THE HIGHEST NORTHERN SUMMITS.
DAILY SPECIFICS FOLLOW...
FOR MONDAY: AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING TO BEGIN, BUT
AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM EXPECT WET SNOW TO CHANGE TO RAIN. A
PRETTY WELL-DEFINED WARM-FRONTAL BAND EVIDENT IN MOST AVAILABLE 12Z
GUIDANCE ALLOWS FOR POPS TO INCREASE TO LIKELY/LOW CATEGORICAL INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON. BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS, WITH MORE WEIGHT
TOWARDS COLDER MAV NUMBERS GIVEN OVERCAST. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER/MID 40S.
MONDAY NIGHT: 925-850 TEMPS BEGIN TO RISE ABOVE 0C EARLY MONDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER, WARMING ALOFT IS FOR A SHORT TIME AS INITIAL FRONTAL
WAVE EXITS INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE. LEFTOVER RAIN BEGINS TO CHANGE OVER
TO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR BRIEFLY AS ICE PELLETS BUT DECREASING POPS
TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT A SLOW FALL IN TEMPERATURES GIVEN
OVERCAST, FALLING TO LOWS AROUND 30 IN AREAS ADJACENT TO THE
CANADIAN BORDER TO THE UPPER 30S FOR SOUTHERN VT.
TUESDAY: NEXT FRONTAL WAVE ON THE LEFTOVER IMPACTS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. HOWEVER, 12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE GETS
SUPPRESSED A BIT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH THAN ON MONDAY. WITH THE
BOUNDARY BEING SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH, POPS AND QPF ARE HIGHEST FOR
SOUTHERN VT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AND LOWER FURTHEST NORTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE GENERALLY SIMILAR TO THOSE ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT: SECOND FRONTAL WAVE MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE. POPS TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THIS PERIOD WITH RAIN CHANGING TO A MIX OF WET SNOW
AS TEMPERATURE/THICKNESS PROFILES COOL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT SUNDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
EXTEND SOUTHWEST TO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE REGION BY LATER IN THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN EXTENDING INTO THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHWEST FROM NORTHERN MAINE AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE REGION...SO HAVE GONE
WITH A DRY FORECAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING A FRONTAL SYSTEM SOUTHWEST OF THE
REGION EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEAST AS A WARM
FRONT ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT SLIDES EASTWARD.
EXPECTING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
HAVE KEPT IN A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH AND CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06 TUESDAY...MIX OF BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH INTO THE REGION
ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT PCPN AFTER 14Z. WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
DURING THE 13-18Z TIME FRAME AND CONTINUING ON AND OFF THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER. SOME IFR
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.
OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...BKN/OVC MVFR/VFR WITH PERIODIC
BOUTS OF MVFR/IFR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS
JUST SOUTH THE AREA WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE
FRONT.
12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE OVER THE REGION.
00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...NEILES/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...BANACOS/JMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
116 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL NEW YORK TONIGHT AND
PRODUCING INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THE
WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FOCUS FOR NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER
INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK, WITH A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND WET
SNOW. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL HIGHS WITH NEAR NORMAL LOWS. THOUGH
BRIEF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY, THE PATTERN BEGINS TO
TURN ACTIVE AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1002 PM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE.
A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN SCATTERED ACROSS PARTS
OF THE NORTHERN TIER. NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 718 PM SUNDAY...
WEAK MESOSCALE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND DRAPED INTO CENTRAL VERMONT MARKED BY A BREAK IN DEW
POINTS BY ABOUT 5-8 DEGREES AND DIFFERENCE IN WIND DIRECTION
(NORTH VS SOUTHWEST). THIS IS ACTUALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR A
REGENERATION OF CLOUDS AND HAS EVEN TOUCHED OFF A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. LATEST HRRR AND OTHER HI-RES MODELS MAINTAIN THIS WEAK
FEATURE FOR ABOUT THE FIRST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE WASHING IT OUT
OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN FRONTAL ZONE THIS EVENING REMAINS WELL TO THE
SOUTH BY THE NY/PA BORDER. THIS WILL PUSH NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT
SPREADING ADDITIONAL CLOUDS INTO THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY SOME
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MONDAY MORNING. LOOKING AT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
20S FOR MOST...WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE IN THE COLDEST
LOCATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT SUNDAY...IT`S AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR
THE NORTH COUNTRY, AS WARM FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT PLAYER IN NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK.
THOUGH THE FRONT WILL OSCILLATE NORTH/SOUTH, WEAK MID-LEVEL VORT
MAXIMA ACTING ON THE BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF CLOUDS AND
SEVERAL PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. IT`S ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE GOVERNED LARGELY BY TIME OF DAY AND
ELEVATION.
SPANNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY, QPF AMOUNTS
RUN FROM A QUARTER INCH FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TO NEAR AN INCH
FOR RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES. ACROSS THAT SAME TIME PERIOD, SNOW
AMOUNTS IN LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE UNDER 2" (MAINLY ON GRASS), BUT TICK
UPWARD TO 4-6" FOR THE HIGHEST NORTHERN SUMMITS.
DAILY SPECIFICS FOLLOW...
FOR MONDAY: AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING TO BEGIN, BUT
AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM EXPECT WET SNOW TO CHANGE TO RAIN. A
PRETTY WELL-DEFINED WARM-FRONTAL BAND EVIDENT IN MOST AVAILABLE 12Z
GUIDANCE ALLOWS FOR POPS TO INCREASE TO LIKELY/LOW CATEGORICAL INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON. BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS, WITH MORE WEIGHT
TOWARDS COLDER MAV NUMBERS GIVEN OVERCAST. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER/MID 40S.
MONDAY NIGHT: 925-850 TEMPS BEGIN TO RISE ABOVE 0C EARLY MONDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER, WARMING ALOFT IS FOR A SHORT TIME AS INITIAL FRONTAL
WAVE EXITS INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE. LEFTOVER RAIN BEGINS TO CHANGE OVER
TO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR BRIEFLY AS ICE PELLETS BUT DECREASING POPS
TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT A SLOW FALL IN TEMPERATURES GIVEN
OVERCAST, FALLING TO LOWS AROUND 30 IN AREAS ADJACENT TO THE
CANADIAN BORDER TO THE UPPER 30S FOR SOUTHERN VT.
TUESDAY: NEXT FRONTAL WAVE ON THE LEFTOVER IMPACTS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. HOWEVER, 12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE GETS
SUPPRESSED A BIT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH THAN ON MONDAY. WITH THE
BOUNDARY BEING SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH, POPS AND QPF ARE HIGHEST FOR
SOUTHERN VT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AND LOWER FURTHEST NORTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE GENERALLY SIMILAR TO THOSE ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT: SECOND FRONTAL WAVE MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE. POPS TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THIS PERIOD WITH RAIN CHANGING TO A MIX OF WET SNOW
AS TEMPERATURE/THICKNESS PROFILES COOL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT SUNDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
EXTEND SOUTHWEST TO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE REGION BY LATER IN THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN EXTENDING INTO THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHWEST FROM NORTHERN MAINE AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE REGION...SO HAVE GONE
WITH A DRY FORECAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING A FRONTAL SYSTEM SOUTHWEST OF THE
REGION EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEAST AS A WARM
FRONT ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT SLIDES EASTWARD.
EXPECTING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
HAVE KEPT IN A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH AND CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06 TUESDAY...MIX OF BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH INTO THE REGION
ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT PCPN AFTER 14Z. WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
DURING THE 13-18Z TIME FRAME AND CONTINUING ON AND OFF THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER. SOME IFR
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.
OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...BKN/OVC MVFR/VFR WITH PERIODIC
BOUTS OF MVFR/IFR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS
JUST SOUTH THE AREA WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE
FRONT.
12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE OVER THE REGION.
00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...BANACOS/JMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
332 AM CDT MON APR 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON APR 6 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO BE PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INITIALIZE WAY TO HIGH WITH PCPN AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE FA. RUC DOING MUCH BETTER SO WILL UTILIZE IN THE NEAR TERM.
OTHERWISE IN LATER PERIODS MODELS FAIRLY CLOSE.
DRY LOW LEVEL NE FLOW CONTINUES TO WIN OUT OVER ANY PCPN. FIRST
BAND OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH 700MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING TRACKING
ACROSS E CENTRAL MN WITHOUT BRINGING ANY MORE THAN A TRACE OF PCPN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA. NEXT BATCH OF RETURNS ACROSS CENTRAL/N
CENTRAL SD NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AND CIGS UNDER RETURNS IN THE MID
LEVELS. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA FEEL IT WILL BE EVEN TOUGHER TO GET ANY PCPN. RUC MAINLY
DRY TODAY AND GFS K295 SURFACE KEEPING ANY LIFT SOUTH OF THE FA.
FOR THIS CONFINED ANY LOW POPS TO ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER AREA.
LOOKS LIKE A BETTER CHANCE FOR PCPN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE E-SE ALLOWING MORE MOISTURE TO SPREAD INTO THE FA. GFS
295K SURFACE LIFTS A BAND OF LOWERING CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH
MODELS IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT INCREASED POPS SOME AS BAND LIFTS
NORTHWARD. NATIONAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SOME POTENTIAL FOR ZR
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FA SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS. THERMAL
ADVECTION FAIRLY NEUTRAL AND WITH CLOUDS TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE DURING THE DAY AND NEAR AVERAGE AT NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON APR 6 2015
ANY LINGERING PCPN SHOULD LIFT NE OF THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT.
NEXT PCPN CHANCES RETURN MIDWEEK AS WESTERN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES FROM
CURRENT TRENDS.
THURSDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF RAIN FROM A WELL ORGANIZED UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM CROSSING THE CENTRAL US. AS A RESULT THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I94 HWY
10 CORRIDOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WARMER INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
LIGHT SNOW IN DVL REGION WILL END AROUND 06Z OR SO. CIGS WILL RISE
BACK INTO VFR RANGE AND STAY THAT WAY THROUGH MONDAY EVE. OTHER
TAF SITES SUCH AS GFK/TVF/BJI TO REMAIN VFR AS WELL AND LIKELY
LOSE THE VFR MID CLOUD DECK MONDAY AS DRIER AIR DRIVES BACK SOUTH.
FARGO AREA LOOKING LESS LIKELY TO GET ANY LIGHT SNOW AS DEW PTS
HAVE FALLEN A FEW DEGREES THIS EVE. THUS KEPT THEM VFR CIGS INTO
MONDAY BUT DRY. WINDS ALL AREAS GENERALLY NORTHEAST 8 TO 15 KTS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND
923 PM PDT SUN APR 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LOW OFF THE OREGON COAST WILL SLOWLY PUSH INTO N
CALIF MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND MAINTAIN A THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR NW
OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR DRY AND MILD WEATHER. A COLD
FRONT MAY BRING A RETURN OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON QUICKLY LOST STEAM
THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOLED. SATELLITE AND RADAR
SHOW SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE REGION AS AN UPPER LOW CIRCULATES
JUST OFFSHORE THE NORTHERN OREGON COAST. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE
MOVING SOUTHWARD OFF OF THE OREGON COAST TONIGHT BEFORE PUSHING
ONSHORE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MODELS FORECAST THAT THE SHOWERS OVER THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA
DECREASE TONIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE LOW TRACKS SOUTHWARD. IF
THIS PANS OUT THEN MONDAY MORNING WILL BE WITH MOSTLY DRY WITH JUST
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THIS GUIDANCE WITH THE EVENING
UPDATE AND HAVE DECREASED POPS FOR THE INTERIOR LOW LANDS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...SATELLITE SHOWS A BAND OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OFFSHORE OF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST THAT MAY SWING NORTHWARD OVER OREGON EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AND HAVE KEPT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS FOR ALL
LOCATIONS. THE HRRR MODEL CURRENTLY CAPTURES THIS CONVECTIVE BAND THE
BEST AND FORECASTS THAT IT WILL WEAKEN AS IT NEARS THE PORTLAND
FORECAST AREA...BUT STILL SPREAD SOME SHOWERS ACROSS LANE COUNTY NEAR
SUNRISE...SO HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR LANE COUNTY
MONDAY MORNING.
THERE APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS BAND
THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS
LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OREGON.
IT IS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST HOW MUCH IF ANY CLEARING WILL ACCOMPANY
THE DECREASE IN SHOWERS TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOT OF
CLOUDS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW...BUT WITH IT MOVING SOUTHWARD TONIGHT
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SKIES MAY CLEAR FOR NW OREGON. WITH THE SHOWERS
THIS EVENING...MANY AREAS HAVE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
WITHIN 5 DEGREES...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPS IN AREAS WITH CLEARING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS NW OREGON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE S OR/N CA COAST. THE
POSITION OF THE LOW IS NOT VERY FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION FOR THE
PORTLAND FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...IF SUNSHINE IS ABUNDANT MONDAY
MORNING SUCH THAT THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR 60 DEGREES
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP. THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD A MENTION IN THE FORECAST THOUGH.
SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW PUSHES FURTHER INLAND ACROSS
CALIFORNIA. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. TJ
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SET UP JUST OFFSHORE BY LATE WEDNESDAY. MAY
SEE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES BUT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS
ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY...INTO THE MID 60S FOR
THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS AND AROUND 60 ALONG THE COAST. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION SOMETIME FRIDAY TO BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION AND COOLER AIR. SOME TIMING ISSUES IN THE LATEST
FORECAST MODELS...BUT CONTINUED THE FORECAST OF RAIN REACHING THE
COAST BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PUSHING INLAND EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT.
RAIN LIKELY CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND IN THE ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SNOW LEVELS DOWN PERHAPS AS LOW AS
AROUND 3000 FT FOR SUNDAY WITH SOME...THOUGH PERHAPS
LIMITED...MOISTURE REMAINING. CULLEN
&&
.AVIATION...A LINE OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY EXTEND FROM SOUTH OF KTTD
NORTHWEST TO KAST AND CONTINUES OFFSHORE...WITH A SMALLER LINE
MOVING ONSHORE NEAR LINCOLN CITY AND EXTENDING EAST TO KSLE.
EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH TO NORTHEAST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MOST TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VFR
CONDITIONS...WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF REDUCED FLIGHT RULES UNDER
HEAVIER SHOWERS. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT INLAND TAF SITES
COULD SEE FOG/LOW STRATUS DEVELOP TONIGHT AFTER 08Z.
HOWEVER...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUING TO SPREAD SHOWERS
ONSHORE THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT IT. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS LOOK TO RETURN TO CENTRAL OREGON AFTER 12Z TOMORROW
MORNING AND SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGH
AROUND 08Z TONIGHT. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK...SHOWERS LOOK TO RETURN
AFTER 16Z TOMORROW MORNING. /64
&&
.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...LOW PRES OFF THE WA AND OR COASTS WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SOUTH AND STALL OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST MONDAY AND
INTENSIFY. MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLED THE EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW VERY
WELL AS IT MOVES OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...BUT NOW HAVE
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TODAYS RUN. AT THIS POINT NO
ADVISORY OR WARNING WILL BE NEEDED FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. AT WORST
THERE COULD BE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS SOUTH OF NEWPORT ON
MONDAY. THE LOW WEAKENS AND PUSHES ASHORE SOMEWHERE IN NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON TUE WITH HIGH PRES RETURNING TO THE WATERS FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SEAS CURRENTLY SITTING AT AROUND 8 FT. EXPECT SEAS TO CONTINUE
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...REACHING NEAR 5
FT ON MON. /MH
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1141 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2015
.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
Stratus with IFR ceilings was just east of KABI and KBBD, with
MVFR stratus in the Hill Country south of KJCT. Expect stratus to
develop westward into terminal overnight. IFR ceiling should rise
to MVFR/VFR by 18Z. Thunderstorms west the Pecos River may affect
KSOA after 7Z and KJCT and KBBD after 8Z according to the short
range HRRR model, so have VCTS in those terminals through 12Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2015/
AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Stratus along an Abilene to Brady to east of Junction line this
afternoon will move back west this evening. Ceilings initially will
start off as MVFR but fall to IFR overnight. IFR/MVFR stratus will
lift to MVFR/VFR early Monday afternoon.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2015/
SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)
Main concern with this package is with the threat for a few
thunderstorms across Crockett County tonight and areas to the
east.
A couple of storms have formed in the Davis Mountains and they are
moving east. The models did show a jet max moving across West Texas
tonight, placing WC TX in the favored right rear entrance region.
This upper level jet max combined with the increasing low level jet
could sustain convection tonight. Although the latest HRRR run
progged a large area of convection moving into the southern half of
WC TX overnight, still have low confidence since all of the other
models showed nothing. Will continue slight chance Pops for
thunderstorms mainly across Crockett County tonight. If this
convection persists, the Pops may have to be adjusted east and
northeast.
Expect the low clouds across the east to slowly erode through the
early evening. With plenty of low level gulf moisture across the
region, expect low clouds to develop overnight.
As the low clouds burn off tomorrow afternoon, temperatures will
quickly warm mostly into the mid and upper 80s. The models show the
dryline setting up west of Crockett County across the Trans Pecos
region. Model soundings show a strong cap through 6 PM tomorrow and
this should keep any convection from forming.
26
LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow night through Sunday)
The main concern through the extended forecast is the potential for
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday, and toward the latter part of
the week for much of West Central Texas. Monday afternoon/evening
the dryline will set up across our western border. Showers and
thunderstorms may develop during the evening hours, mainly across
the Trans Pecos region of West Texas. A few of these storms may
drift into mainly Crockett County during the evening hours, where
slight chance PoPs are included. On Tuesday, the dryline will once
again move east to about our western boundary, during the late
afternoon/early evening. At this time, the cap looks to dominate,
with little to no convection developing. An isolated thunderstorms
will be possible if we are able to break the cap, but the forecast
was kept dry for now.
Models are in fairly good agreement showing the next upper level
low/trough centered across Utah/Colorado on Wednesday, then tracking
across the Central Plains Thursday. Ahead of this feature, a dryline
is forecast to move east to near our western border late Wednesday
afternoon/evening. Enough afternoon heating (highs in the mid 80s to
low 90s) and lift from the upper level trough should allow for the
development of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms,
mainly during the late afternoon/evening, then moving across the
area overnight. The ECMWF continues to be much drier than both the
GFS/Canadian, but geared the forecast closer to the wetter GFS. A
fairly unstable atmosphere will lie along and ahead of the dryline,
with SBCAPE values generally in the 1500-2500 J/KG range and 0-6 KM
shear values in the 35 to 50 knot range. Strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible, with large hail and damaging winds
being the main hazards at this time.
With the passage of the upper level trough, a cold front will move
through West Central Texas on Thursday. Slightly cooler temperatures
are forecast Thursday into the weekend, with highs generally in the
mid 70s to low 80s. The next upper level low across the Pacific
Ocean will then begin to approach California, with West Central
Texas in southwest flow aloft. Intermittent disturbances may result
in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, Friday into next
weekend, and this is reflected in the grids. The aforementioned
upper level low will eventually tack across West Texas or New
Mexico, which may bring an increasing chance of showers and
thunderstorms for late in the weekend or early next week.
Daniels
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 65 88 66 89 66 / 10 10 10 10 10
San Angelo 64 87 66 89 66 / 10 5 10 10 10
Junction 66 83 68 84 66 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1139 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS SE TX. LIFR CIGS/VSBY PREVAIL TO THE
NORTH OF THE FRONT AND IFR/MVFR CONDS PREVAIL TO THE SOUTH. THE
DILEMMA IS DECIDING HOW FAR NORTH THE FRONT WILL MOVE TONIGHT AND
THE CORRESPONDING CEILING HEIGHTS. FEEL THE RAP INITIALIZED BEST
AND LEANED TOWARD A RAP/HRRR/GFS BLEND. DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD
BEGIN TO MIX DOWN AROUND 15Z AND MVFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BETWEEN 15-17Z. MVFR/VFR CONDS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTN
WITH MVFR CONDS AGAIN EXPECTED AFTER 02Z MON NITE. MODERATE SE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2015/
UPDATE...
TRICKY OVERNIGHT FORECAST IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES WITH A WARM
FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE AREA. SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 9 PM
CDT SHOWED THE FRONT DRAPED ROUGHLY ALONG A COLUMBUS TO ELLINGTON
FIELD TO SOUTH OF BEAUMONT LINE...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S NORTH OF IT AND NEAR 70 TO THE SOUTH. THE FRONT IS
ANTICIPATED TO LIFT SLOWLY OVERNIGHT AND NOT MUCH CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE FRONT
TONIGHT...WITH AREAS NORTH OF IT SEEING SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING
BEFORE WARM AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT PROMOTES AN INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN ZONES AS
A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTHERN MEXICO AND
TWEAKED POPS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR LOW END CHANCES.
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND HAVE ADDED
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS WELL AS THE BAYS
AND NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH MID-MORNING ON MONDAY. NEARSHORE
WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 70 DEGREES...AND
WITH SOMEWHAT WARMER AND MOISTER AIR ADVECTING OVER THE MARINE
AREAS TONIGHT SOME PATCHY SEA FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
HUFFMAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 71 59 81 68 83 / 40 20 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 73 59 82 68 83 / 40 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 73 69 78 71 80 / 20 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1201 AM MDT MON APR 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM MDT SUN APR 5 2015
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EASING THIS EVENING AS WINDS
STEADILY DECREASE AND HUMIDITIES IMPROVE. THUS...ALLOWED THE RED
FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE ON TIME. INCREASED CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY FOR
TONIGHT AS A FAIRLY BROAD CIRRUS SHIELD HAS MOVED UP FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT SUN APR 5 2015
THE PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY EARLY IN THE WEEK AS THE NEXT TROUGH CARVES
INTO THE WEST COAST. THE DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS WILL BE FOR FLOW TO
BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THRU TUESDAY ALONG WITH THE INITIAL
IMPULSES AND ASSOCIATED PACIFIC MOISTURE EJECTING INTO THE THE NRN
ROCKIES. BEFORE THEN...SATELLITE PIX THIS AFTERNOON SHOW THE CIRRUS
SHIELD SEEN EARLIER THIS MORNING ALL BUT GONE ACROSS THE CWFA...
WHICH HAS RESULTED IN DEEP MIXING IN THE BL THIS AFTERNOON. WIND
GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH AND HUMIDITIES OF 10-15 PERCENT TODAY HAVE
RESULTED IN A SOLID CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY FOR SE WY. AS
EXPECTED...LLVL GRADIENTS HAVE STRUGGLED OVR WRN NEBRASKA WHICH HAS
MITIGATED CRITICAL CONDITIONS THERE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO EARLY EVENING...BEFORE THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES. OTHERWISE...A
DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT AHEAD.
VIRTUALLY A CARBON COPY DAY AHEAD FOR MONDAY...ALTHOUGH A WEAK FRONT
OVR PORTIONS OF THE ERN PLAINS WILL COMBINE WITH A BIT MORE CLOUD
COVER TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. BY
21Z...THIS BOUNDARY/INVERTED SFC TROF SHOULD BE LOCATED FROM LUSK TO
NR SIDNEY. GRADIENTS WILL CERTAINLY BE ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER DAY...THOUGH LOWER TEMPS WILL KEEP HUMIDITIES A BIT
MORE MARGINAL THAN TODAY. EVEN SO...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT AREAS
AT LEAST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL APPROACH IF NOT REACH
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AGAIN ON MONDAY.
CONVECTION POTENTIAL INCREASE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS MODELS HAVE
BEEN VERY PERSISTENT IN SETTING UP AN INSTABILITY AXIS IN THE
VICINITY OF LLVL CONVERGENCE AREA ALONG THE LEE SIDE PRESSURE
TROUGH. MAY EVEN SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER WITH PROGD SBCAPES OF 200-
300 J/KG. HAVE CONFINED THESE CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR THE SOUTHEAST
WYOMING PLAINS AND NRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WOULD EXPECT VERY LIMITED COVERAGE HOWEVER. TEMPS WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER ON TUESDAY WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER AND CAA AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A DRIZZLE AND/OR
LOW STRATUS/FOG EVENT SETTING UP ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS LATE TUESDAY
NT WITH BL PROGS SATURATED ON BOTH MODELS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR BETTER CONVECTIVE CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT SUN APR 5 2015
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE IMPACTS FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
LATEST WATER VAPOR/VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS WERE SHOWING OPEN CELL
CLOUD FORMATIONS OVER THE PACIFIC. THE OPEN CELLS APPEAR TO BE
DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW WHICH IS INDICATION
OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. 90KT UPPER LEVEL JETLET (ACCORDING TO GOES
HIGH DENSITY WINDS) ALSO APPEARS TO BE DIGGING ACROSS THIS AREA.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW THIS UPPER TROF TO AMPLIFY AND INTENSIFY DURING
THE NEXT 24HRS OR SO. THE MODELS ARE PROGGING THIS WAVE TO SHIFT
EAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS
WAVE...WE SHOULD SEE THE LEE SIDE TROF INTENSIFY WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE PLAINS TO BECOME SOUTHEAST AND
BRING UP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. MAY
SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE LEE
SIDE TROF WHICH MAY CONTAIN SOME DRY LIGHTNING. WE STILL KEPT THE
BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PICTURE EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROF DEVELOPS AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STAYS LOCKED IN
PLACE. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG WEDNESDAY EVENING ESPECIALLY
WITH AMPLE AMOUNT OF SHEAR/INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT:
THE 12Z GFS APPEARS TO BE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TRACK OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. MEANWHILE...THE
12Z ECMWF SOLUTION/SEVERAL MEMBERS OF THE GEFS ARE TRACKING THE
UPPER TROF ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO AND LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA BY THURSDAY EVENING WHICH IS A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. THESE SOLUTIONS SEEM BE MORE
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS TIME ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE GEM/UKMET
SOLUTIONS HAVE SHIFTED THE UPPER TROF A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH
COMPARED THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS.
THE MAIN QUESTION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WILL BE THE TIMING OF WHEN
THIS UPPER TROF WILL INTENSIFY AND WHETHER OR NOT THE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO WRAP UP THE MOISTURE AND BRING STRONGER COLD AIR
ADVECTION. AT THIS POINT...THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHICH MAKES SENSE WITH THE JETLET
KICKING OUT INTO THE PLAINS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000FT MAINLY IN WYOMING...BUT THE
BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE WHERE IT MAY BE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW. IN FACT...PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS COULD BE UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN THIS AREA. STILL TOO EARLY
TO CALL ON WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL SEE SNOW ACCUMULATION...BUT IF
THE WRAP AROUND PRECIP BEGINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IT WILL CERTAINLY
BE WORTH WATCHING. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE STRONG GUSTY NORTH
WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WHICH MAY INCREASE THE IMPACTS
IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE SNOWFALL. THE RAIN/SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
DEPART THE AREA.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST. MAY STILL HAVE TO CONTEND
WITH LIGHT SNOW IN THE PANHANDLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THIS
SHOULD END FAIRLY QUICKLY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES ITS WAY
INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT SLOW TO RECOVER IN AREAS
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...BUT SHOULD RECOVER FAIRLY WELL INTO
THE 40S AND 50S IN THE WEST. SATURDAY-SUNDAY DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO COMMENCE OVER THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. AS A RESULT...WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ON
SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT TROF MOVES INTO THE PICTURE EITHER LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM MDT MON APR 6 2015
PERSISTENT EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS UP NEAR KCDR THIS EVENING ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...WITH LATEST SREF AND HRRR GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING PERHAPS STRATUS DEVELOPING INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL IN THIS HAPPENING
DUE TO LACK OF STRATUS REPORTS IN UPSTREAM OBS AT TAF
ISSUANCE...BUT DID MENTION AT LEAST SCT MVFR CIGS AT KCDR AS THIS
PATTERN SEEMS FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST PATCHY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT.
ELSEWHERE SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. THE STRATUS
WILL LIKELY RETURN TO THE PANHANDLE AND PERHAPS THE PLAINS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING MONDAY NIGHT...WITH CIGS LOWERING FROM EAST TO
WEST MAINLY AFTER 03Z TUESDAY.
THE SFC TROUGH STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS OVERNIGHT...STALLING FROM KDGW-KSNY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SHIFT ONLY SLIGHTLY EAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE PANHANDLE SITES AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS WYOMING. GUSTS 25-40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS WYOMING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE...WITH UP TO 20 KTS IN THE PANHANDLE. WINDS WILL STEADILY
DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 830 PM MDT SUN APR 5 2015
CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE MARGINAL ON MONDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES 3-5F DEGREES COOLER. HOWEVER...WINDS WOULD DEFINITELY
SUPPORT ANOTHER CRITICAL DAY ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. IT LOOKS LIKE ANY THREAT OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS COME
TO AN END TUE-WED AS MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASE. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXIST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RJM
SHORT TERM...CAH
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...CAH/RJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
1015 AM CDT MON APR 6 2015
.DISCUSSION...
EARLY UPDATE LOWERED POP OVER CENTRAL TO WESTERN AR TO
SLIGHT...WHILE KEEPING A CHANCE OVER EASTERN TO SOUTHERN AR.
ATMOSPHERE REMAIN QUITE MOIST AND WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ELEVATED...FOG HAS HELD ON MOST OF THIS MORNING. 12Z KLZK SOUNDING
HAD A PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.37 INCHES...WITH AN ELEVATED SW FLOW
FROM GRADIENT LEVEL TO 10K FEET. MAIN MORNING CONVECTION HAS PUSHED
TO FAR NE AR AND OVER SE AR...WHILE NONE AT THIS TIME CENTRAL TO
WESTERN AREAS. DO SEE A SHORT WAVE IN THE MEAN UPPER FLOW OVER NE TX
TO SE AR...AND THIS WILL MOVE INTO AR LATE MORNING TO AFTERNOON.
SOME FORM OF A WARM FRONT IS SEEN OVER NORTHERN LA TO NE TX TO
CENTRAL OK. CURRENT FLOW SHOULD MOVE THIS NORTHWARD TODAY...BUT HOW
FAR STILL IS IN QUESTION. DO HAVE A BIT MORE POP EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS TIME CAN ONLY GO 30-50% DUE TO A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POTENTIAL
BUT MORE OF AN ISOLATED TREND. SOME INSTABILITY AND SURFACE BASED
CAPE IS SEEN ALONG WITH THE WEAK SHORT WAVE. WILL ADJUST FORECAST TO
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER. LATE MORNING WILL FINE TUNE
CONVECTION CHANCES AS WELL AS TEMPS. TEMPS WILL BE LOWERED A BIT DUE
TO FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HOLDING MUCH LONGER...ESPECIALLY IF THE WARM
FRONT DOES NOT LIFT MUCH NORTHWARD INTO AR. (59)
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT MON APR 6 2015/
.AVIATION...
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY VARY BETWEEN IFR
AND MVFR...WITH PATCHY FOG AND LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MAYBE A
BRIEF VFR PERIOD THIS EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
PREVALENT BEFORE DAWN ON TUESDAY...AS MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT MON APR 6 2015/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
HAVE ALREADY SEEN DEWPOINTS AROUND THE STATE INCREASE CLOSE TO 20
DEGREES IN THE PAST TWENTY FOUR HOURS. MOISTURE CONTINUED TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG DISSIPATING.
WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE STATE TODAY.
FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH THE STATE BY 00Z. A GENERALLY CAPPED
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE IN PLACE AROUND THE STATE ON MONDAY...LIMITING
ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...NAM/ARW/NMM/HRRR MODEL
SOUNDINGS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS DO SUGGEST THE CAP
WOULD ERODE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE
NAM BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN THIS SOLUTION. CONVERSELY...THE GFS
IS A BIT COOLER AND DRIER AT THE SURFACE AND SUGGESTS THE CAP WILL
HOLD TOUGH. CURRENT FORECAST HAS SURFACE TEMPS/DEWPOINTS A BIT
CLOSER TO THE NAM SOLUTION...THEREFORE WILL INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE. 05Z HRRR ALSO BEGINS TO SUGGEST SOME
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR IN SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WITH THE
06Z CONTINUING THIS TREND. IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS THEY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. PORTIONS OF SW ARKANSAS WILL BE
MOST LIKELY TO SEE SE WINDS...INCREASING HELICITY. LCL HEIGHTS ARE A
BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE...BUT STILL LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A TORNADO TO
FORM. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE ISOLATED IN
COVERAGE...AND THERE EXISTS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS.
TUESDAY WILL ALSO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE STATE WITH YET ANOTHER CAPPED ENVIRONMENT
IN PLACE. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER ON TUESDAY...BUT AT
THIS POINT ARE JUST BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLD...BUT WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE OVER ARKANSAS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO COOL ALOFT RESULTING IN THE CAP BEGINNING TO WEAKEN.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL STILL REMAIN
WELL TO THE WEST OF THE STATE...KEEPING BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS. A FEW STORMS COULD HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...BUT THIS WOULD GENERALLY BE ACROSS
EXTREME WESTERN ARKANSAS.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE GOING FORECAST. WHILE THE SMALL DETAILS MAY
VARY A BIT...THE OVERALL PICTURE REMAINS THE SAME. AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY...AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
WITH THE FRONT...SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
COULD BE SEVERE. AT THIS POINT...ALL MODES LOOK POSSIBLE...WITH THE
HIGHEST THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE EXTENT OF
THE THREAT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH THINGS DESTABILIZE OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. ALSO...ANY STRONGER STORMS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
APPROACHING TWO INCHES.
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION AROUND FRIDAY MORNING.
RETAINED SMALL RAIN CHANCES BEHIND THE FRONT...AS THE MODELS TEND TO
PUSH SYSTEMS OUT OF THE REGION A BIT FAST THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
FRONT WILL STALL OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION...BEFORE BACKING TO
THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AROUND SUNDAY...WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING. IT IS LOOKING LIKE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE A POSSIBILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL...AND
FORECAST TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...57
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
622 AM CDT MON APR 6 2015
.AVIATION...
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY VARY BETWEEN IFR
AND MVFR...WITH PATCHY FOG AND LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MAYBE A
BRIEF VFR PERIOD THIS EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
PREVALENT BEFORE DAWN ON TUESDAY...AS MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT MON APR 6 2015/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
HAVE ALREADY SEEN DEWPOINTS AROUND THE STATE INCREASE CLOSE TO 20
DEGREES IN THE PAST TWENTY FOUR HOURS. MOISTURE CONTINUED TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG DISSIPATING.
WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE STATE TODAY.
FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH THE STATE BY 00Z. A GENERALLY CAPPED
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE IN PLACE AROUND THE STATE ON MONDAY...LIMITING
ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...NAM/ARW/NMM/HRRR MODEL
SOUNDINGS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS DO SUGGEST THE CAP
WOULD ERODE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH
THE NAM BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN THIS SOLUTION. CONVERSELY...THE GFS
IS A BIT COOLER AND DRIER AT THE SURFACE AND SUGGESTS THE CAP WILL
HOLD TOUGH. CURRENT FORECAST HAS SURFACE TEMPS/DEWPOINTS A BIT
CLOSER TO THE NAM SOLUTION...THEREFORE WILL INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE. 05Z HRRR ALSO BEGINS TO SUGGEST
SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR IN SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WITH
THE 06Z CONTINUING THIS TREND. IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP IN
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THEY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. PORTIONS OF SW ARKANSAS
WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO SEE SE WINDS...INCREASING HELICITY. LCL
HEIGHTS ARE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE...BUT STILL LOW ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A TORNADO TO FORM. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE QUITE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE...AND THERE EXISTS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS.
TUESDAY WILL ALSO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE STATE WITH YET ANOTHER CAPPED ENVIRONMENT
IN PLACE. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER ON TUESDAY...BUT AT
THIS POINT ARE JUST BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLD...BUT WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE OVER ARKANSAS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO COOL ALOFT RESULTING IN THE CAP BEGINNING TO WEAKEN.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL STILL REMAIN
WELL TO THE WEST OF THE STATE...KEEPING BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS. A FEW STORMS COULD HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...BUT THIS WOULD GENERALLY BE ACROSS
EXTREME WESTERN ARKANSAS.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE GOING FORECAST. WHILE THE SMALL DETAILS MAY
VARY A BIT...THE OVERALL PICTURE REMAINS THE SAME. AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY...AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
WITH THE FRONT...SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
COULD BE SEVERE. AT THIS POINT...ALL MODES LOOK POSSIBLE...WITH THE
HIGHEST THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE EXTENT OF
THE THREAT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH THINGS DESTABILIZE OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. ALSO...ANY STRONGER STORMS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
APPROACHING TWO INCHES.
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION AROUND FRIDAY MORNING.
RETAINED SMALL RAIN CHANCES BEHIND THE FRONT...AS THE MODELS TEND TO
PUSH SYSTEMS OUT OF THE REGION A BIT FAST THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
FRONT WILL STALL OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION...BEFORE BACKING TO
THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AROUND SUNDAY...WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING. IT IS LOOKING LIKE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE A POSSIBILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL...AND
FORECAST TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...57
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1021 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN TODAY...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 WHERE IT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...
MILD AND DRY. NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...THERE IS A STALLED FRONT...
WHICH WILL RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS AND AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THE FURTHER NORTH ONE GOES. TONIGHT...AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO SAG
SOUTHWARD...SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE AND THERE COULD EVEN BE
A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL BE WITH US TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
MOVE ALONG THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...EVEN THOUGH CURRENT RADAR DISPLAYS SHOW LOTS OF
ECHOES TO THE NORTH OF I-90...BASED ON SURFACE REPORTS IT APPEARS
LITTLE IF ANY OF THIS PCPN IS REACHING THE GROUND. WILL CONTINUE
WITH ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THIS REGION FOR TODAY.
THE LATEST HRRR INDICATED THIS ACTIVITY MOVING NORTH AND
DISSIPATING. OTHERWISE MOST AREAS WILL HAVE A DRY DAY WITH PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE FROM I-90 SOUTHWARD BY THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHS TODAY IN MOST AREAS WILL BE IN THE MID OR UPPER 50S.
FURTHER NORTH...WITH MORE CLOUDS AND BETTER CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS...WE HELD HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTHERLY IN MOST AREAS TODAY...5-15 MPH HELPING
TO BRING IN THOSE MILDER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
NOT A BAD START TO THE WORKWEEK WEATHERWISE...BUT THE WEATHER LOOKS
UNSETTLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
A DISTURBANCE OVER IOWA WILL HEAD EAST. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER WHICH WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN TUGGING THE FRONT SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF SAMES BAY WILL SLIP A BIT
SOUTHWARD...PUSHING THE FRONT BACK TO THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION BY
TUESDAY MORNING. BY THIS TIME...THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL
BE IN THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL INDUCE
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE THE THREAT OF RAIN OR SHOWERS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.
AS COLD SHALLOW AIR FILTERS IN FIRST TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT...THERE IS
A CHANCE OF A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN OVER THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD TO
ABOUT LAKE GEORGE. WE WILL MONITOR THIS POSSIBILITY AND ISSUE ANY
HEADLINES IF NECESSARY. LOWS WILL BE FREEZING OR A LITTLE LOWER
NORTHERN AREAS...MID TO UPPER 30S JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION INCLUDING SOUTHERN VERMONT...40-45 ALBANY SOUTH.
TUESDAY WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN SLIP SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...BUT CHANCES NORTH. IT LOOKS TO BE AN OVERCAST DAY...RAW
NORTH OF ALBANY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S...TO AROUND 50 IN AND AROUND
ALBANY...LOWER 50S SOUTH.
TUESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL WEDGE SHALLOW COLD AIR
INTO MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH STILL PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WE
KEPT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM FOR SNOW NORTH OF
ALBANY...RAIN FURTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS LIGHT. LOWS 25-32 NORTH OF ALBANY...33 TO ABOUT 38
ALBANY SOUTH.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO PRODUCE MORE RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
ONE LOOKS STRONGER...AND WILL PRODUCE STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT AS
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF I84. THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE OF MORE RAIN THAT DAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S...MAYBE
SOME LOWER 50S NEAR INTERSTATE 84. AS LOW PRESSURE PUSH TO OUR EAST
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION MIGHT END AS SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS ALL AREAS AS LOWS DIP DOWN FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID
30S SOUTH.
THE QPF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY WILL BE MORE
SIGNIFICANT AND AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT QPF AMOUNTS UP TO AN
ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD LEAD TO RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. REFER TO HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO).
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER REMAINS IN THE FORECAST AS THE SYNOPTIC
FLOW AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AS A STRONGER WAVE COMES
ASHORE ACROSS PACIFIC COAST.
PER THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS...THIS STRONG WAVE MOVES OUT ONTO THE
PLAINS WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET RESPONSE AND GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE RETURN FOR MORE CLOUDS AND WET CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION
LATER THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. WE WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS
AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA. WHILE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS A LIQUID...WE CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS OF
THE SURFACE HIGH TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH EXTREME
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF WINTRY MIXTURE
WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF I90.
FRIDAY NIGHT THE TRENDS FAVOR A DRY SLOT AS MAIN SURFACE LOW TRACKS
WELL TO OUR WEST AND NORTH AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS
UPSTREAM. SO WE WILL LOWER POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH PORTIONS OF THE
DACKS REMAINING UNDER CHC-SCT POPS. THIS UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY
TRANSVERSES THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WE HAVE FOLLOWED THE
BLENDED APPROACH OFFERED BY WPC WITH A SLIGHT WARMER TREND DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS THROUGH THE WEEK DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND WARM
ADVECTION REGIME.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SKIES CLEARED OUT IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WHICH ALLOWED FOR IFR
CONDITIONS TO EVOLVE RATHER QUICKLY AT KPOU. ELSEWHERE IT APPEARS
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED DUE TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE. AS THE
WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH...FOG AT KPOU WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES FROM MID
MORNING ON.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY BY SUNSET.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING
AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS AND VIS TO ALL TAF SITES EARLY TONIGHT...THEN IFR LATE TONIGHT.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BECOMING
SOUTHERLY THROUGH DAYLIGHT HOURS AT SPEEDS 10KTS OR LESS. TONIGHT
THE WINDS SUBSIDE TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY...EXCEPT NORTHERN AREAS WILL MIGHT SEE A
LITTLE RAINFALL. PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND MINIMUM RH VALUES 35-40
PERCENT CAN BE EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-90...LESS SUNSHINE AND 40-50
PERCENT VALUES NEAR I-90. NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WILL FEATURE
MORE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. RH VALUES WILL BE MORE ELEVATED ONLY DROPPING TO THE 50-60
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
A SOUTH WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH FROM I-90 SOUTH...LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FURTHER NORTH NEAR THE FRONT.
THIS FRONT WILL DRIVE OUR WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IT
LOOKS MORE UNSETTLED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
EXPECTED AND DAMP CONDITIONS. BY FRIDAY...MOST IF NOT ALL PLACES
SHOULD HAVE SEEN OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL. IT LOOKS TO TURN
DRIER BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE MOHAWK RIVER AT THE UTICA HARBOR FOR MINOR
FLOODING REMAINS IN EFFECT...BUT COULD BE DROPPED LATER THIS MORNING.
IT NOW LOOKS MAINLY DRY FROM I-90 SOUTH TODAY...WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR SHOWERS NORTH OF I-90 WITH QPF AMOUNTS GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF
AN INCH. THIS RAIN WILL HAVE NO ADDED IMPACT ON ALREADY SWOLLEN
STREAMS AND RIVERS.
A STALLED OUT FRONT WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE AND MOISTURE INCREASES
NEAR IT...AND SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVE ALONG IT TONIGHT THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS LIQUID
RAIN...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME SLEET...FREEZING RAIN OR EVEN SNOW IN
OUR NORTHERN AREAS AT NIGHT.
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE DIURNAL MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK WITH
TEMPERATURES MOST NIGHTS GETTING COLD ENOUGH SLOW AND EVEN STOP THE
MELT.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH QPF
AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OF LESS EXPECTED. HOWEVER MORE SIGNIFICANT
QPF IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UP TO AN ONE INCH
POSSIBLE. MORE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. THIS RAINFALL COMBINED
WITH RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT WOULD LEAD TO RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. THE METEOROLOGICAL MODEL ENSEMBLE ROVER FORECASTS (MMEFS)
INDICATES THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME RIVER POINTS REACHING
ACTION OR PERHAPS EVEN MINOR FLOOD FLOOD STAGE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH FOR QPF AMOUNTS AND IS EVEN LOWER FOR THE EXPECTED RUNOFF FROM
SNOWMELT. HAVE ADDED MENTION TO OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/GJM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
737 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL ATTEMPT TO BRIEFLY
BUILD IN TODAY... SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 WHERE IT LOOKS TO BE PARTLY
SUNNY MILD AND DRY. FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...WHERE A FRONT WILL BE
STALLED...THERE WILL BE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THE FURTHER NORTH ONE GOES. TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
BEGINS TO SAG SOUTHWARD SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE AND THERE
COULD EVEN BE A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE WITH US TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES WORK ALONG THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...JUST A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS OVER OUR NORTHERN AREAS PRODUCING LITTLE IF ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE MID
30S SOUTH.
THE LATEST HRRR INDICATED THIS ACTIVITY MOVING NORTH AND
DISSIPATING. OTHERWISE MANY AREAS MIGHT SEE A DRY DRY WITH SOME
SUNSHINE FROM I-90 SOUTHWARD. THEREFORE OUR FORECAST TODAY IS MORE
OPTIMISTIC THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AS A BOUNDARY LIFTS JUST NORTH OF I-
90 AND INITIALLY WEAKENS.
WE STILL HAVE SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE CAPITAL REGION...LOW POPS NORTH
MUCH OF THE DAY. THEREFORE...WE HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE IN
SOME PLACES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS WELL. AREAS WELL SOUTH OF I-90
LOOK TO CRACK 60 OR A LITTLE BETTER. EVEN IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET A NICE BUMP TODAY COMPARED TO
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID OR UPPER 50S. FURTHER NORTH...WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND BETTER CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS...WE HELD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTHERLY IN MOST AREAS TODAY...5-15 MPH HELPING
TO BRING IN THOSE MILDER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
NOT A BAD START TO THE WORKWEEK WEATHERWISE...BUT THE WEATHER LOOKS
UNSETTLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
A DISTURBANCE OVER IOWA WILL HEAD EAST. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER WHICH WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN TUGGING THE FRONT SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF SAMES BAY WILL SLIP A BIT
SOUTHWARD...PUSHING THE FRONT BACK TO THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION BY
TUESDAY MORNING. BY THIS TIME...THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL
BE IN THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL INDUCE
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE THE THREAT OF RAIN OR SHOWERS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.
AS COLD SHALLOW AIR FILTERS IN FIRST TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT...THERE IS
A CHANCE OF A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN OVER THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD TO
ABOUT LAKE GEORGE. WE WILL MONITOR THIS POSSIBILITY AND ISSUE ANY
HEADLINES IF NECESSARY. LOWS WILL BE FREEZING OR A LITTLE LOWER
NORTHERN AREAS...MID TO UPPER 30S JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION INCLUDING SOUTHERN VERMONT...40-45 ALBANY SOUTH.
TUESDAY WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN SLIP SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...BUT CHANCES NORTH. IT LOOKS TO BE AN OVERCAST DAY...RAW
NORTH OF ALBANY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S...TO AROUND 50 IN AND AROUND
ALBANY...LOWER 50S SOUTH.
TUESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL WEDGE SHALLOW COLD AIR
INTO MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH STILL PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WE
KEPT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM FOR SNOW NORTH OF
ALBANY...RAIN FURTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS LIGHT. LOWS 25-32 NORTH OF ALBANY...33 TO ABOUT 38
ALBANY SOUTH.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO PRODUCE MORE RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
ONE LOOKS STRONGER...AND WILL PRODUCE STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT AS
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF I84. THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE OF MORE RAIN THAT DAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S...MAYBE
SOME LOWER 50S NEAR INTERSTATE 84. AS LOW PRESSURE PUSH TO OUR EAST
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION MIGHT END AS SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS ALL AREAS AS LOWS DIP DOWN FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID
30S SOUTH.
THE QPF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY WILL BE MORE
SIGNIFICANT AND AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT QPF AMOUNTS UP TO AN
ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD LEAD TO RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. REFER TO HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO).
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER REMAINS IN THE FORECAST AS THE SYNOPTIC
FLOW AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AS A STRONGER WAVE COMES
ASHORE ACROSS PACIFIC COAST.
PER THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS...THIS STRONG WAVE MOVES OUT ONTO THE
PLAINS WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET RESPONSE AND GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE RETURN FOR MORE CLOUDS AND WET CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION
LATER THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. WE WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS
AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA. WHILE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS A LIQUID...WE CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS OF
THE SURFACE HIGH TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH EXTREME
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF WINTRY MIXTURE
WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF I90.
FRIDAY NIGHT THE TRENDS FAVOR A DRY SLOT AS MAIN SURFACE LOW TRACKS
WELL TO OUR WEST AND NORTH AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS
UPSTREAM. SO WE WILL LOWER POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH PORTIONS OF THE
DACKS REMAINING UNDER CHC-SCT POPS. THIS UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY
TRANSVERSES THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WE HAVE FOLLOWED THE
BLENDED APPROACH OFFERED BY WPC WITH A SLIGHT WARMER TREND DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS THROUGH THE WEEK DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND WARM
ADVECTION REGIME.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SKIES CLEARED OUT IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WHICH ALLOWED FOR IFR
CONDITIONS TO EVOLVE RATHER QUICKLY AT KPOU. ELSEWHERE IT APPEARS
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED DUE TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE. AS THE
WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH...FOG AT KPOU WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES FROM MID
MORNING ON.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY BY SUNSET.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING
AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS AND VIS TO ALL TAF SITES EARLY TONIGHT...THEN IFR LATE TONIGHT.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BECOMING
SOUTHERLY THROUGH DAYLIGHT HOURS AT SPEEDS 10KTS OR LESS. TONIGHT
THE WINDS SUBSIDE TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY...EXCEPT NORTHERN AREAS WILL MIGHT SEE A
LITTLE RAINFALL. PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND MINIMUM RH VALUES 35-40
PERCENT CAN BE EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-90...LESS SUNSHINE AND 40-50
PERCENT VALUES NEAR I-90. NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WILL FEATURE
MORE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. RH VALUES WILL BE MORE ELEVATED ONLY DROPPING TO THE 50-60
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
A SOUTH WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH FROM I-90 SOUTH...LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FURTHER NORTH NEAR THE FRONT.
THIS FRONT WILL DRIVE OUR WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IT
LOOKS MORE UNSETTLED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
EXPECTED AND DAMP CONDITIONS. BY FRIDAY...MOST IF NOT ALL PLACES
SHOULD HAVE SEEN OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL. IT LOOKS TO TURN
DRIER BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE MOHAWK RIVER AT THE UTICA HARBOR FOR MINOR
FLOODING REMAINS IN EFFECT...BUT COULD BE DROPPED LATER THIS MORNING.
IT NOW LOOKS MAINLY DRY FROM I-90 SOUTH TODAY...WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR SHOWERS NORTH OF I-90 WITH QPF AMOUNTS GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF
AN INCH. THIS RAIN WILL HAVE NO ADDED IMPACT ON ALREADY SWOLLEN
STREAMS AND RIVERS.
A STALLED OUT FRONT WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE AND MOISTURE INCREASES
NEAR IT...AND SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVE ALONG IT TONIGHT THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS LIQUID
RAIN...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME SLEET...FREEZING RAIN OR EVEN SNOW IN
OUR NORTHERN AREAS AT NIGHT.
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE DIURNAL MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK WITH
TEMPERATURES MOST NIGHTS GETTING COLD ENOUGH SLOW AND EVEN STOP THE
MELT.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH QPF
AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OF LESS EXPECTED. HOWEVER MORE SIGNIFICANT
QPF IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UP TO AN ONE INCH
POSSIBLE. MORE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. THIS RAINFALL COMBINED
WITH RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT WOULD LEAD TO RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. THE METEOROLOGICAL MODEL ENSEMBLE ROVER FORECASTS (MMEFS)
INDICATES THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME RIVER POINTS REACHING
ACTION OR PERHAPS EVEN MINOR FLOOD FLOOD STAGE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH FOR QPF AMOUNTS AND IS EVEN LOWER FOR THE EXPECTED RUNOFF FROM
SNOWMELT. HAVE ADDED MENTION TO OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL ATTEMPT TO BRIEFLY
BUILD IN TODAY... SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 WHERE IT LOOKS TO BE PARTLY
SUNNY MILD AND DRY. FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...WHERE A FRONT WILL BE
STALLED...THERE WILL BE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THE FURTHER NORTH ONE GOES. TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
BEGINS TO SAG SOUTHWARD SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE AND THERE
COULD EVEN BE A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE WITH US TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES WORK ALONG THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...JUST A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS OVER OUR NORTHERN AREAS PRODUCING LITTLE IF ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE MID
30S SOUTH.
THE LATEST HRRR INDICATED THIS ACTIVITY MOVING NORTH AND
DISSIPATING. OTHERWISE MANY AREAS MIGHT SEE A DRY DRY WITH SOME
SUNSHINE FROM I-90 SOUTHWARD. THEREFORE OUR FORECAST TODAY IS MORE
OPTIMISTIC THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AS A BOUNDARY LIFTS JUST NORTH OF I-
90 AND INITIALLY WEAKENS.
WE STILL HAVE SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE CAPITAL REGION...LOW POPS NORTH
MUCH OF THE DAY. THEREFORE...WE HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE IN
SOME PLACES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS WELL. AREAS WELL SOUTH OF I-90
LOOK TO CRACK 60 OR A LITTLE BETTER. EVEN IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET A NICE BUMP TODAY COMPARED TO
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID OR UPPER 50S. FURTHER NORTH...WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND BETTER CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS...WE HELD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTHERLY IN MOST AREAS TODAY...5-15 MPH HELPING
TO BRING IN THOSE MILDER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
NOT A BAD START TO THE WORKWEEK WEATHERWISE...BUT THE WEATHER LOOKS
UNSETTLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
A DISTURBANCE OVER IOWA WILL HEAD EAST. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER WHICH WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN TUGGING THE FRONT SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF SAMES BAY WILL SLIP A BIT
SOUTHWARD...PUSHING THE FRONT BACK TO THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION BY
TUESDAY MORNING. BY THIS TIME...THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL
BE IN THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL INDUCE
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE THE THREAT OF RAIN OR SHOWERS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.
AS COLD SHALLOW AIR FILTERS IN FIRST TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT...THERE IS
A CHANCE OF A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN OVER THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD TO
ABOUT LAKE GEORGE. WE WILL MONITOR THIS POSSIBILITY AND ISSUE ANY
HEADLINES IF NECESSARY. LOWS WILL BE FREEZING OR A LITTLE LOWER
NORTHERN AREAS...MID TO UPPER 30S JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION INCLUDING SOUTHERN VERMONT...40-45 ALBANY SOUTH.
TUESDAY WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN SLIP SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...BUT CHANCES NORTH. IT LOOKS TO BE AN OVERCAST DAY...RAW
NORTH OF ALBANY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S...TO AROUND 50 IN AND AROUND
ALBANY...LOWER 50S SOUTH.
TUESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL WEDGE SHALLOW COLD AIR
INTO MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH STILL PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WE
KEPT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM FOR SNOW NORTH OF
ALBANY...RAIN FURTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS LIGHT. LOWS 25-32 NORTH OF ALBANY...33 TO ABOUT 38
ALBANY SOUTH.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO PRODUCE MORE RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
ONE LOOKS STRONGER...AND WILL PRODUCE STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT AS
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF I84. THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE OF MORE RAIN THAT DAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S...MAYBE
SOME LOWER 50S NEAR INTERSTATE 84. AS LOW PRESSURE PUSH TO OUR EAST
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION MIGHT END AS SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS ALL AREAS AS LOWS DIP DOWN FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID
30S SOUTH.
THE QPF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY WILL BE MORE
SIGNIFICANT AND AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT QPF AMOUNTS UP TO AN
ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD LEAD TO RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. REFER TO HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO).
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER REMAINS IN THE FORECAST AS THE SYNOPTIC
FLOW AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AS A STRONGER WAVE COMES
ASHORE ACROSS PACIFIC COAST.
PER THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS...THIS STRONG WAVE MOVES OUT ONTO THE
PLAINS WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET RESPONSE AND GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE RETURN FOR MORE CLOUDS AND WET CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION
LATER THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. WE WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS
AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA. WHILE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS A LIQUID...WE CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS OF
THE SURFACE HIGH TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH EXTREME
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF WINTRY MIXTURE
WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF I90.
FRIDAY NIGHT THE TRENDS FAVOR A DRY SLOT AS MAIN SURFACE LOW TRACKS
WELL TO OUR WEST AND NORTH AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS
UPSTREAM. SO WE WILL LOWER POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH PORTIONS OF THE
DACKS REMAINING UNDER CHC-SCT POPS. THIS UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY
TRANSVERSES THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WE HAVE FOLLOWED THE
BLENDED APPROACH OFFERED BY WPC WITH A SLIGHT WARMER TREND DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS THROUGH THE WEEK DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND WARM
ADVECTION REGIME.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT THE PRESENT TIME...HOWEVER...WARM FRONT AND THE
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS /MAINLY DUE TO CIGS/ OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SUNRISE
MONDAY. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP /MAINLY SNOW FOR
KGFL/ AS THIS WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED NARROW REGION OF PRECIP
LIFTS NORTHWARD. AS THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT OCCURS MONDAY
MORNING...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ONCE AGAIN.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY THROUGH
MONDAY AT SPEEDS 10KTS OR LESS.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THU NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRI: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY...EXCEPT NORTHERN AREAS WILL MIGHT SEE A
LITTLE RAINFALL. PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND MINIMUM RH VALUES 35-40
PERCENT CAN BE EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-90...LESS SUNSHINE AND 40-50
PERCENT VALUES NEAR I-90. NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WILL FEATURE
MORE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. RH VALUES WILL BE MORE ELEVATED ONLY DROPPING TO THE 50-60
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
A SOUTH WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH FROM I-90 SOUTH...LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FURTHER NORTH NEAR THE FRONT.
THIS FRONT WILL DRIVE OUR WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IT
LOOKS MORE UNSETTLED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
EXPECTED AND DAMP CONDITIONS. BY FRIDAY...MOST IF NOT ALL PLACES
SHOULD HAVE SEEN OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL. IT LOOKS TO TURN
DRIER BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE MOHAWK RIVER AT THE UTICA HARBOR FOR MINOR
FLOODING REMAINS IN EFFECT...BUT COULD BE DROPPED LATER THIS MORNING.
IT NOW LOOKS MAINLY DRY FROM I-90 SOUTH TODAY...WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR SHOWERS NORTH OF I-90 WITH QPF AMOUNTS GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF
AN INCH. THIS RAIN WILL HAVE NO ADDED IMPACT ON ALREADY SWOLLEN
STREAMS AND RIVERS.
A STALLED OUT FRONT WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE AND MOISTURE INCREASES
NEAR IT...AND SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVE ALONG IT TONIGHT THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS LIQUID
RAIN...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME SLEET...FREEZING RAIN OR EVEN SNOW IN
OUR NORTHERN AREAS AT NIGHT.
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE DIURNAL MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK WITH
TEMPERATURES MOST NIGHTS GETTING COLD ENOUGH SLOW AND EVEN STOP THE
MELT.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH QPF
AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OF LESS EXPECTED. HOWEVER MORE SIGNIFICANT
QPF IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UP TO AN ONE INCH
POSSIBLE. MORE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. THIS RAINFALL COMBINED
WITH RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT WOULD LEAD TO RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. THE METEOROLOGICAL MODEL ENSEMBLE ROVER FORECASTS (MMEFS)
INDICATES THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME RIVER POINTS REACHING
ACTION OR PERHAPS EVEN MINOR FLOOD FLOOD STAGE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH FOR QPF AMOUNTS AND IS EVEN LOWER FOR THE EXPECTED RUNOFF FROM
SNOWMELT. HAVE ADDED MENTION TO OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
640 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL ATTEMPT TO BRIEFLY
BUILD IN TODAY... SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 WHERE IT LOOKS TO BE PARTLY
SUNNY MILD AND DRY. FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...WHERE A FRONT WILL BE
STALLED...THERE WILL BE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THE FURTHER NORTH ONE GOES. TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
BEGINS TO SAG SOUTHWARD SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE AND THERE
COULD EVEN BE A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE WITH US TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES WORK ALONG THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT...RADARS CONTINUE TO INDICATE JUST SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS OF SNOW AND RAIN LIFTING NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ALBANY SOUTH...25 TO 30
WELL NORTH OF ALBANY. THESE VALUES MIGHT DROP A POINT OR TWO AT MOST
THROUGH SUNRISE...THEN WILL RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.
THE LATEST HRRR INDICATED THIS ACTIVITY MOVING NORTH AND
DISSIPATING. OTHERWISE MANY AREAS MIGHT SEE A DRY DRY WITH SOME
SUNSHINE FROM I-90 SOUTHWARD. THEREFORE OUR FORECAST TODAY IS MORE
OPTIMISTIC THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AS A BOUNDARY LIFTS JUST NORTH OF I-
90 AND INITIALLY WEAKENS.
WE STILL HAVE SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE CAPITAL REGION...LOW POPS NORTH
MUCH OF THE DAY. THEREFORE...WE HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE IN
SOME PLACES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS WELL. AREAS WELL SOUTH OF I-90
LOOK TO CRACK 60 OR A LITTLE BETTER. EVEN IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET A NICE BUMP TODAY COMPARED TO
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID OR UPPER 50S. FURTHER NORTH...WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND BETTER CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS...WE HELD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTHERLY IN MOST AREAS TODAY...5-15 MPH HELPING
TO BRING IN THOSE MILDER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
NOT A BAD START TO THE WORKWEEK WEATHERWISE...BUT THE WEATHER LOOKS
UNSETTLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
A DISTURBANCE OVER IOWA WILL HEAD EAST. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER WHICH WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN TUGGING THE FRONT SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF JAMES BAY WILL SLIP A BIT
SOUTHWARD...PUSHING THE FRONT BACK TO THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION BY
TUESDAY MORNING. BY THIS TIME...THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL
BE IN THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL INDUCE
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE THE THREAT OF RAIN OR SHOWERS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.
AS COLD SHALLOW AIR FILTERS IN FIRST TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT...THERE IS
A CHANCE OF A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN OVER THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD TO
ABOUT LAKE GEORGE. WE WILL MONITOR THIS POSSIBILITY AND ISSUE ANY
HEADLINES IF NECESSARY. LOWS WILL BE FREEZING OR A LITTLE LOWER
NORTHERN AREAS...MID TO UPPER 30S JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION INCLUDING SOUTHERN VERMONT...40-45 ALBANY SOUTH.
TUESDAY WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN SLIP SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...BUT CHANCES NORTH. IT LOOKS TO BE AN OVERCAST DAY...RAW
NORTH OF ALBANY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S...TO AROUND 50 IN AND AROUND
ALBANY...LOWER 50S SOUTH.
TUESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL WEDGE SHALLOW COLD AIR
INTO MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH STILL PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WE
KEPT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM FOR SNOW NORTH OF
ALBANY...RAIN FURTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS LIGHT. LOWS 25-32 NORTH OF ALBANY...33 TO ABOUT 38
ALBANY SOUTH.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO PRODUCE MORE RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
ONE LOOKS STRONGER...AND WILL PRODUCE STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT AS
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF I84. THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE OF MORE RAIN THAT DAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S...MAYBE
SOME LOWER 50S NEAR INTERSTATE 84. AS LOW PRESSURE PUSH TO OUR EAST
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION MIGHT END AS SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS ALL AREAS AS LOWS DIP DOWN FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID
30S SOUTH.
THE QPF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY WILL BE MORE
SIGNIFICANT AND AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT QPF AMOUNTS UP TO AN
ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD LEAD TO RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. REFER TO HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO).
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER REMAINS IN THE FORECAST AS THE SYNOPTIC
FLOW AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AS A STRONGER WAVE COMES
ASHORE ACROSS PACIFIC COAST.
PER THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS...THIS STRONG WAVE MOVES OUT ONTO THE
PLAINS WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET RESPONSE AND GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE RETURN FOR MORE CLOUDS AND WET CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION
LATER THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. WE WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS
AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA. WHILE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS A LIQUID...WE CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS OF
THE SURFACE HIGH TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH EXTREME
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF WINTRY MIXTURE
WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF I90.
FRIDAY NIGHT THE TRENDS FAVOR A DRY SLOT AS MAIN SURFACE LOW TRACKS
WELL TO OUR WEST AND NORTH AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS
UPSTREAM. SO WE WILL LOWER POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH PORTIONS OF THE
DACKS REMAINING UNDER CHC-SCT POPS. THIS UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY
TRANSVERSES THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WE HAVE FOLLOWED THE
BLENDED APPROACH OFFERED BY WPC WITH A SLIGHT WARMER TREND DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS THROUGH THE WEEK DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND WARM
ADVECTION REGIME.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT THE PRESENT TIME...HOWEVER...WARM FRONT AND THE
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS /MAINLY DUE TO CIGS/ OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SUNRISE
MONDAY. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP /MAINLY SNOW FOR
KGFL/ AS THIS WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED NARROW REGION OF PRECIP
LIFTS NORTHWARD. AS THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT OCCURS MONDAY
MORNING...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ONCE AGAIN.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY THROUGH
MONDAY AT SPEEDS 10KTS OR LESS.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THU NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRI: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY...EXCEPT NORTHERN AREAS WILL MIGHT SEE A
LITTLE RAINFALL. PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND MINIMUM RH VALUES 35-40
PERCENT CAN BE EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-90...LESS SUNSHINE AND 40-50
PERCENT VALUES NEAR I-90. NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WILL FEATURE
MORE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. RH VALUES WILL BE MORE ELEVATED ONLY DROPPING TO THE 50-60
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
A SOUTH WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH FROM I-90 SOUTH...LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FURTHER NORTH NEAR THE FRONT.
THIS FRONT WILL DRIVE OUR WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IT
LOOKS MORE UNSETTLED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
EXPECTED AND DAMP CONDITIONS. BY FRIDAY...MOST IF NOT ALL PLACES
SHOULD HAVE SEEN OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL. IT LOOKS TO TURN
DRIER BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE MOHAWK RIVER AT THE UTICA HARBOR FOR MINOR
FLOODING REMAINS IN EFFECT...BUT COULD BE DROPPED LATER THIS MORNING.
IT NOW LOOKS MAINLY DRY FROM I-90 SOUTH TODAY...WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR SHOWERS NORTH OF I-90 WITH QPF AMOUNTS GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF
AN INCH. THIS RAIN WILL HAVE NO ADDED IMPACT ON ALREADY SWOLLEN
STREAMS AND RIVERS.
A STALLED OUT FRONT WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE AND MOISTURE INCREASES
NEAR IT...AND SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVE ALONG IT TONIGHT THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS LIQUID
RAIN...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME SLEET...FREEZING RAIN OR EVEN SNOW IN
OUR NORTHERN AREAS AT NIGHT.
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE DIURNAL MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK WITH
TEMPERATURES MOST NIGHTS GETTING COLD ENOUGH SLOW AND EVEN STOP THE
MELT.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH QPF
AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OF LESS EXPECTED. HOWEVER MORE SIGNIFICANT
QPF IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UP TO AN ONE INCH
POSSIBLE. MORE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. THIS RAINFALL COMBINED
WITH RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT WOULD LEAD TO RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. THE METEOROLOGICAL MODEL ENSEMBLE ROVER FORECASTS (MMEFS)
INDICATES THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME RIVER POINTS REACHING
ACTION OR PERHAPS EVEN MINOR FLOOD FLOOD STAGE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH FOR QPF AMOUNTS AND IS EVEN LOWER FOR THE EXPECTED RUNOFF FROM
SNOWMELT. HAVE ADDED MENTION TO OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
948 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
.UPDATE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO STRETCH ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA PRODUCING A BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUD DECK. A FEW SPOTTY
SHOWERS WERE ON RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING JUST NORTH OF OUR
CWA...BUT CONDITIONS ARE CLEARING OUT NOW. EASTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGES
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SIMILIAR TO YESTERDAY...THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE WILL SETUP EARLY AND PROPAGATE WESTWARD. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE INLAND AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND
MOVE TOWARD THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. WITH SUFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING...THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL SETUP AROUND 20Z AND MOVE
SLIGHTLY INLAND. THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS THE
STRONGEST SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE LINE FROM CITRUS COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO MANATEE COUNTY
AROUND 00Z. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING UP NICELY THIS MORNING AND
ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
UPPER 80S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AND POSSIBLY 90 ALONG THE INLAND
AREAS. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND HRRR GUIDANCE...WILL TRIM DOWN
THE POPS THROUGH 18Z...THEN BRING IN 30-40 PERCENT OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS BETWEEN 18Z TO 00Z. WILL UPDATE ZONES TO REFLECT CHANGES.
&&
.AVIATION...
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. A SEA BREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY...CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MOST TAF LOCATIONS AFTER 19Z.
WILL COVER THIS PERIOD WITH VCSH AND ADD TEMPO LINES BASED ON
RADAR COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOWER COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL KEEP AN OVERALL
EASTERLY WIND FLOW EXCEPT CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE THE WINDS WILL
TURN ONSHORE WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS
THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS LESS THAN 2 FEET THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 84 69 85 69 / 30 20 30 10
FMY 88 68 87 68 / 20 10 20 10
GIF 86 68 87 68 / 40 20 40 20
SRQ 84 68 84 68 / 10 10 10 10
BKV 86 65 86 63 / 40 30 40 20
SPG 84 71 85 72 / 20 20 20 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1100 AM CDT MON APR 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...
354 AM CDT
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
IN THE NEAR TERM...A COMBINATION COLD FRONT/LAKE BREEZE HAS
PUSHED INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN IL TO ABOUT A RFD-DPA-CGX LINE BY
LATE LAST EVENING. COLD AIR IS QUITE SHALLOW HOWEVER...WITH AN
AMDAR AIRCRAFT ASCENT SOUNDING FROM ORD AROUND 03Z SHOWING THE TOP
OF THE INVERSION AT AROUND 1400 FT AGL (13C/55F AT 940 MB).
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 KT ABOVE THIS INVERSION DEPICT THE
LARGER SCALE PATTERN ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WITH BROAD REGION OF
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A SERIES OF RELATIVELY SMALL-AMPLITUDE
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS NOTED UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA IN 00Z RAOB
ANALYSIS. GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS DEEP OPPOSING FLOW WILL CAUSE
FRONT TO STALL OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH EARLY
THIS MORNING. WITHIN THIS REGION OF SOUTHERLY FLOW
HOWEVER...MOISTURE WAS BEGINNING TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AS
NOTED BY LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPANDING NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL IL.
EXTRAPOLATION FROM GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS CLOUDS WILL
EXPAND ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...SUPPORTED BY MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH DEPICT INCREASING RH IN THE 900-800 MB
LAYER. SOME HIGH-RES GUIDANCE MEMBERS (MAINLY THE WPC NMM) DEVELOP
SOME VERY SPOTTY QPF ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS FROM THIS RELATIVELY SHALLOW CLOUD LAYER...THOUGH
THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE ARGUES AGAINST CARRYING ANY MENTIONABLE
POP DURING THE DAY. MUCH GREATER POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS THIS EVENING...AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY EMERGING
FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES APPROACHES. GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE MIXED IN
DENOTING AREA OF GREATEST QPF/PROBABILITY...THOUGH THE BEST
FORCING INITIALLY FOCUSES ON EASTERN IOWA/NORTHWEST IL TOWARD
EVENING WITH THE STRONGEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THETA-E
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 30 KT H8 FLOW RESULTING FROM THE MID-
LEVEL WAVE. THIS FLOW THEN WEAKENS AND VEERS MORE WESTERLY
OVERNIGHT...FOCUSING BETTER PRECIP POTENTIAL EASTWARD ALONG THE
FRONTAL ZONE AND MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA. WRF SOUNDINGS
INDICATE FAIRLY DECENT ELEVATED CAPE (1500+ J/KG) ACROSS THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERN CWA COINCIDENT WITH THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET...DECREASING (200-300 J/KG) FARTHER NORTH. BEYOND MIDNIGHT
SOUNDINGS DEPICT MID-LEVEL DRYING AND CAPPING ABOVE SATURATED
LOWER LEVELS...WITH DECREASING LIFT/ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOCUSED
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST CWA. LIGHTER RAIN/DRIZZLE LIKELY
TO LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH WITHIN WEAK BUT PERSISTENT ASCENT IN
SATURATED LAYER BELOW ABOUT 750 MB.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY IS COMPLICATED BY AFOREMENTIONED
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...AS WELL AS CONSOLIDATION OF
WARM/STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE CWA IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE LOW
ACROSS THE PLAINS. A CONSIDERABLE PORTION OF THE WARM ADVECTION
OCCURS ABOVE OUR MOIST LAYER AND INVERSION THRU THE DAY...AND
WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS TAKE ON AN EASTERLY COMPONENT BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON AS FRONTAL ZONE EVOLVES AND TIGHTENS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. MODEL
THERMAL FIELDS AT 950-925 MB LEVELS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
60S...WITH TEMPS LIKELY TURNING COOLER ALONG THE ILLINOIS SHORE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. SHARPENING OF WEST-EAST FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IN
TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED LARGE NORTH-SOUTH TEMP
GRADIENT...LIKELY FROM THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE IL LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORE TO THE 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA.
LITTLE CHANGE TO THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY... WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING
ACROSS THE SOUTH PART OR JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA AND REMAINING A
FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WITH A SERIES OF MINOR MID-LEVEL WAVES.
THERE IS SOME CONSENSUS IN GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS WITH A MORE
AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE WHICH
APPROACHES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT PRODUCING ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGHER CONFIDENCE RAIN/THUNDER.
THE WEAKENING SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE FRONT SAGGING FARTHER SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL AND INDIANA DURING THE DAY. COOL
TEMPS...CLOUDS AND PERHAPS FOG AND DRIZZLE CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
COOL NORTHEAST WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
422 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID-MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
BY THURSDAY MORNING. WITH THE DEEPENING LOW OVER THE PLAINS...
INCREASING SOUTH FLOW IS INDUCED DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE MIDWEST
WITH ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THIS INCREASES THE
LIKELY HOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. SOME
DIFFERENCES REMAIN AMONGST MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO THE
TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...WITH THE GFS AND GEM NOTABLY
SLOWER AND DEEPER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE ECMWF. IN
ANY CASE...STRONG WARM/MOIST ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THURSDAY.
THURSDAY CONTINUES TO PRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN
THE REGION AHEAD OF STRONG UPPER SYSTEM AND IN VICINITY OF SURFACE
LOW/TRIPLE POINT...ESPECIALLY WITH SLOWER GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS. GIVEN
ENERGETIC APPROACHING TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW...PRESENCE OF
WARM/POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. MUCH OF AREA
REMAINS IN SPC DAY 4 RISK.
EVEN WITH SLOWER GFS/GEM MOVEMENT OF SURFACE LOW...OCCLUDING COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. DRY SLOT THEN SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY
WHILE UPPER TROUGH/LOW SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS WI AND THE
NORTHERN LAKES. THUS PRECIP POTENTIAL LOOKS TO DIMINISH
MARKEDLY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF BRING ANOTHER FAIRLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS LATE IN
THE WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIP/THUNDER LATE SUNDAY OR
SUNDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE DEEP SURFACE LOW TO OUR
WEST. AGAIN DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
DETAILS...THOUGH MUCH OF CWA MAY BE IN THE 70S. COOLER BUT NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...MID 50S TO LOW 60S...WITH
LAKE BREEZE COOLING MAINLY ON SUNDAY.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* WIND SHIFT/LAKE BREEZE TO EAST/NORTHEAST BY MIDDAY...INCREASING
TO AROUND 10 KT BY MID LATE AFTERNOON.
* SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING.
* MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.
CMS/RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IL AND SOUTHERN WI WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THIS MORNING...THEN MOVING BACK SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON...AIDED BY A LAKE BREEZE. SOUTHERLY WINDS UNDER 10
KTS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE EAST/NORTHEAST MID/LATE AFTERNOON. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THIS WILL
OCCUR...BUT TIMING AND SPECIFIC DIRECTIONS/SPEEDS WILL NEED SOME
REFINEMENT. WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN EASTERLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AND BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE REGARDING HOW WIDESPREAD THESE
BECOME AS WELL AS THE DURATION IS SOMEWHAT LOW. INSTABILITY ALSO
SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TSRA BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE IN THIS FORECAST.
5-7KFT CIGS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING
WITH MVFR CIGS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST/CENTRAL IL. THESE APPEAR TO
MAKE A PUSH INTO NORTHWEST IL AND RFD THIS MORNING THEN SPREAD
INTO NORTHEAST IL THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME LOWER
CLOUDS MAY BE DEVELOPING AS COOLER AIR SPREADS IN FROM THE LAKE.
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY WHEN ANY
SHOWERS DEVELOP. CIGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR/LIFR OVERNIGHT
AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH FOR WIND SHIFT TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST...MEDIUM ON EXACT
TIMING AND WITH SPEED TRENDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
* MEDIUM FOR SHOWERS THIS EVENING...LOW FOR COVERAGE/DURATION.
* HIGH FOR MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...MEDIUM FOR
TIMING.
* HIGH FOR IFR/LIFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...MEDIUM FOR TIMING.
CMS/RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* TUESDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. IFR/LIFR. STRONG/GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...MAINLY DRY. IFR. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHRA/TSRA LIKELY. IFR. EAST WINDS.
* THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SHRA/TSRA. IFR LIKELY. SOUTH
WINDS.
* FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. GUSTY WEST WINDS.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. WEST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
342 AM...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING BUT WILL THEN MOVE BACK SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON...AND SOUTH OF THE LAKE BY THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT
IS THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
LAKE INTO THURSDAY WHEN LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
NORTHEAST/EAST WINDS 15-25 KTS WILL PERSIST THRU THURSDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF 30KTS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF/TWO THIRDS OF THE LAKE. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1036 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 AM CDT MON APR 6 2015
The current forecast is in good condition. A quasi stationary
front still remains over northern Illinois, while a warm front
over the central Plains will affect southern portions of the CWA
tonight into tomorrow morning. Cloud cover will remain over
Illinois for the rest of today, with a few breaks here and there.
Portions of southeast Illinois experienced scattered, light
showers this morning, with light rain reported in Lawrenceville.
Temperatures, winds, sky cover, and precipitation are currently in
check, so will leave the forecast for today as is with only minor
adjustments.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT MON APR 6 2015
Latest surface analysis indicating a stationary front located over
extreme northern Illinois through northern Iowa, which is forecast
to hold to our north until tonight when it will start to edge south
across the forecast area. Meanwhile, our persistent southerly flow
has brought an increase in cloud cover to the forecast area early
this morning along with a few sprinkles being reported to our south
at Mattoon and Salem during the past hour. RAP forecast soundings
showing the depth of the moisture will not be very deep today,
roughly 3000-4000 feet, so any light rain that is able to make it to
the ground will not amount to much. Short term models do indicate a
subtle shortwave tracking east across the forecast area through
early morning which may be enough to shake out some light rain from
time to time, especially across the south and east. Had low chance
POPs going in the east and see no reason to change that, with the
better chances for showers and thunderstorms arriving by late this
afternoon across the far northwest. RAP and HRRR models also forecast
surface dew points to increase to around 50 degrees over the south
half of the area by later today, compared with upper teens to low 20
dew points this past weekend.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT MON APR 6 2015
NWP models continue to show an active weather pattern from tonight
through Thursday night, with periodic rain chances. Potential for
storms will initially be limited to mainly our western counties
tonight, with the SPC marginal risk area covering west of Rushville
to Taylorville. The best chance of strong to severe storms still
looks to be Thursday afternoon/eve with the arrival of a stronger
shortwave and cold front.
A stationary front across northern Illinois will be the focus for
showers to develop tonight, once moisture levels increase and
frontogenetic forcing intensifies. The front is expected to drift
southward into central IL tonight, stalling out again roughly along
I-72 from Tuesday through Wednesday night.
Weakening low pressure will progress into western Illinois Tuesday
afternoon, with an increase of F-gen forcing and instability across
our central and northern counties. However, better potential for
strong storms will remain west of IL. Forcing for storms Wed
afternoon appears tied to shortwaves tracking over the top of low
level F-gen forcing, but severe potential appears low again late Wed
and Wed night.
While the models are indicating QPF amounts in every period this
week, there will be extended breaks in the rainfall in the wake of
individual waves that progress eastward along the frontal boundary.
Despite continued model differences in timing, we tried to highlight
the periods with the best chances for precip with likely or higher
PoPs. Right now, that includes tonight into Tuesday mainly in the
north, Wed night in the south, Thurs in the west, and Thur night in
the east.
A more substantial low along the Pacific coast will push east into
the Rockies on Wednesday, reaching northern IL Thursday night.
Impacts from that system will be felt in our area as early as Wed
night, especially closer to the front in our southern counties.
Severe potential will ramp up on Thursday afternoon as a surface low
pressure center approaches NW IL and a cold front reaches western
IL. That front will progress across IL Thur night, with support
aloft from an intensifying jet streak. Wind shear and instability
params appear favorable for rotating storms with large hail,
damaging winds and even a few tornadoes. At this point, model
consensus points toward storms affecting areas W of I-55 Thur aftn,
and east of I-55 Thurs evening.
A few showers could linger Friday morning east of I-57, but most
areas should be dry on Friday. That break from rain/storms is
expected to continue into the weekend, under surface high pressure.
The next weather disturbance could arrive later Sunday afternoon, as
the upper flow remains relatively zonal. More significant pattern
differences in the extended models are keeping confidence low on
timing, so will keep chance PoPs confined to our far western
counties Sunday for now.
Temperatures through the week will be closely tied to the
oscillation of the stationary front south then north through central
IL. We kept temps well above guidance in the southern counties until
the cold frontal passage Thursday night, while northern areas were
kept closer to normal temps after the front drifts south toward I-72
for Tuesday to Thursday. Thursday looks to be the warmest day of the
week, with cooler conditions from Friday through Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT MON APR 6 2015
MVFR cigs are expected to expand north and cover most of our
area today with IFR cigs expected tonight with scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms. Low level moisture continues to
increase from south to north with cigs lowering to 2500-3500
feet at SPI and DEC and would expect our other sites to see
the same happen this morning and then continue with MVFR cigs
this afternoon. The threat for precip increases tonight with
cigs lowering to at least tempo IFR in -SHRA with VCTS.
Surface winds today will remain out of the south at 10 to 15 kts
with winds backing a bit more into a southeasterly direction
tonight at 8 to 13 kts.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ALW
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
640 AM CDT MON APR 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...
354 AM CDT
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
IN THE NEAR TERM...A COMBINATION COLD FRONT/LAKE BREEZE HAS
PUSHED INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN IL TO ABOUT A RFD-DPA-CGX LINE BY
LATE LAST EVENING. COLD AIR IS QUITE SHALLOW HOWEVER...WITH AN
AMDAR AIRCRAFT ASCENT SOUNDING FROM ORD AROUND 03Z SHOWING THE TOP
OF THE INVERSION AT AROUND 1400 FT AGL (13C/55F AT 940 MB).
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 KT ABOVE THIS INVERSION DEPICT THE
LARGER SCALE PATTERN ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WITH BROAD REGION OF
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A SERIES OF RELATIVELY SMALL-AMPLITUDE
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS NOTED UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA IN 00Z RAOB
ANALYSIS. GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS DEEP OPPOSING FLOW WILL CAUSE
FRONT TO STALL OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH EARLY
THIS MORNING. WITHIN THIS REGION OF SOUTHERLY FLOW
HOWEVER...MOISTURE WAS BEGINNING TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AS
NOTED BY LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPANDING NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL IL.
EXTRAPOLATION FROM GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS CLOUDS WILL
EXPAND ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...SUPPORTED BY MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH DEPICT INCREASING RH IN THE 900-800 MB
LAYER. SOME HIGH-RES GUIDANCE MEMBERS (MAINLY THE WPC NMM) DEVELOP
SOME VERY SPOTTY QPF ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS FROM THIS RELATIVELY SHALLOW CLOUD LAYER...THOUGH
THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE ARGUES AGAINST CARRYING ANY MENTIONABLE
POP DURING THE DAY. MUCH GREATER POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS THIS EVENING...AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY EMERGING
FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES APPROACHES. GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE MIXED IN
DENOTING AREA OF GREATEST QPF/PROBABILITY...THOUGH THE BEST
FORCING INITIALLY FOCUSES ON EASTERN IOWA/NORTHWEST IL TOWARD
EVENING WITH THE STRONGEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THETA-E
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 30 KT H8 FLOW RESULTING FROM THE MID-
LEVEL WAVE. THIS FLOW THEN WEAKENS AND VEERS MORE WESTERLY
OVERNIGHT...FOCUSING BETTER PRECIP POTENTIAL EASTWARD ALONG THE
FRONTAL ZONE AND MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA. WRF SOUNDINGS
INDICATE FAIRLY DECENT ELEVATED CAPE (1500+ J/KG) ACROSS THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERN CWA COINCIDENT WITH THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET...DECREASING (200-300 J/KG) FARTHER NORTH. BEYOND MIDNIGHT
SOUNDINGS DEPICT MID-LEVEL DRYING AND CAPPING ABOVE SATURATED
LOWER LEVELS...WITH DECREASING LIFT/ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOCUSED
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST CWA. LIGHTER RAIN/DRIZZLE LIKELY
TO LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH WITHIN WEAK BUT PERSISTENT ASCENT IN
SATURATED LAYER BELOW ABOUT 750 MB.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY IS COMPLICATED BY AFOREMENTIONED
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...AS WELL AS CONSOLIDATION OF
WARM/STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE CWA IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE LOW
ACROSS THE PLAINS. A CONSIDERABLE PORTION OF THE WARM ADVECTION
OCCURS ABOVE OUR MOIST LAYER AND INVERSION THRU THE DAY...AND
WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS TAKE ON AN EASTERLY COMPONENT BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON AS FRONTAL ZONE EVOLVES AND TIGHTENS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. MODEL
THERMAL FIELDS AT 950-925 MB LEVELS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
60S...WITH TEMPS LIKELY TURNING COOLER ALONG THE ILLINOIS SHORE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. SHARPENING OF WEST-EAST FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IN
TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED LARGE NORTH-SOUTH TEMP
GRADIENT...LIKELY FROM THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE IL LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORE TO THE 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA.
LITTLE CHANGE TO THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY... WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING
ACROSS THE SOUTH PART OR JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA AND REMAINING A
FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WITH A SERIES OF MINOR MID-LEVEL WAVES.
THERE IS SOME CONSENSUS IN GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS WITH A MORE
AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE WHICH
APPROACHES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT PRODUCING ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGHER CONFIDENCE RAIN/THUNDER.
THE WEAKENING SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE FRONT SAGGING FARTHER SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL AND INDIANA DURING THE DAY. COOL
TEMPS...CLOUDS AND PERHAPS FOG AND DRIZZLE CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
COOL NORTHEAST WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
422 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID-MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
BY THURSDAY MORNING. WITH THE DEEPENING LOW OVER THE PLAINS...
INCREASING SOUTH FLOW IS INDUCED DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE MIDWEST
WITH ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THIS INCREASES THE
LIKELY HOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. SOME
DIFFERENCES REMAIN AMONGST MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO THE
TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...WITH THE GFS AND GEM NOTABLY
SLOWER AND DEEPER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE ECMWF. IN
ANY CASE...STRONG WARM/MOIST ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THURSDAY.
THURSDAY CONTINUES TO PRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN
THE REGION AHEAD OF STRONG UPPER SYSTEM AND IN VICINITY OF SURFACE
LOW/TRIPLE POINT...ESPECIALLY WITH SLOWER GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS. GIVEN
ENERGETIC APPROACHING TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW...PRESENCE OF
WARM/POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. MUCH OF AREA
REMAINS IN SPC DAY 4 RISK.
EVEN WITH SLOWER GFS/GEM MOVEMENT OF SURFACE LOW...OCCLUDING COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. DRY SLOT THEN SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY
WHILE UPPER TROUGH/LOW SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS WI AND THE
NORTHERN LAKES. THUS PRECIP POTENTIAL LOOKS TO DIMINISH
MARKEDLY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF BRING ANOTHER FAIRLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS LATE IN
THE WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIP/THUNDER LATE SUNDAY OR
SUNDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE DEEP SURFACE LOW TO OUR
WEST. AGAIN DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
DETAILS...THOUGH MUCH OF CWA MAY BE IN THE 70S. COOLER BUT NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...MID 50S TO LOW 60S...WITH
LAKE BREEZE COOLING MAINLY ON SUNDAY.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* WIND SHIFT/LAKE BREEZE TO EAST/NORTHEAST MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
* SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING.
* MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IL AND SOUTHERN WI WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THIS MORNING...THEN MOVING BACK SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON...AIDED BY A LAKE BREEZE. SOUTHERLY WINDS UNDER 10
KTS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE EAST/NORTHEAST MID/LATE AFTERNOON. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THIS WILL
OCCUR...BUT TIMING AND SPECIFIC DIRECTIONS/SPEEDS WILL NEED SOME
REFINEMENT. WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN EASTERLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AND BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE REGARDING HOW WIDESPREAD THESE
BECOME AS WELL AS THE DURATION IS SOMEWHAT LOW. INSTABILITY ALSO
SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TSRA BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE IN THIS FORECAST.
5-7KFT CIGS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING
WITH MVFR CIGS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST/CENTRAL IL. THESE APPEAR TO
MAKE A PUSH INTO NORTHWEST IL AND RFD THIS MORNING THEN SPREAD
INTO NORTHEAST IL THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME LOWER
CLOUDS MAY BE DEVELOPING AS COOLER AIR SPREADS IN FROM THE LAKE.
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY WHEN ANY
SHOWERS DEVELOP. CIGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR/LIFR OVERNIGHT
AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* HIGH FOR WIND SHIFT TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST MID/LATE AFTERNOON...
MEDIUM FOR TIMING...LOW FOR SPEEDS.
* MEDIUM FOR SHOWERS THIS EVENING...LOW FOR COVERAGE/DURATION.
* HIGH FOR MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...MEDIUM FOR
TIMING.
* HIGH FOR IFR/LIFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...MEDIUM FOR TIMING. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* TUESDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. IFR/LIFR. STRONG/GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...MAINLY DRY. IFR. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHRA/TSRA LIKELY. IFR. EAST WINDS.
* THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SHRA/TSRA. IFR LIKELY. SOUTH
WINDS.
* FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. GUSTY WEST WINDS.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. WEST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
342 AM...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING BUT WILL THEN MOVE BACK SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON...AND SOUTH OF THE LAKE BY THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT
IS THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
LAKE INTO THURSDAY WHEN LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
NORTHEAST/EAST WINDS 15-25 KTS WILL PERSIST THRU THURSDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF 30KTS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF/TWO THIRDS OF THE LAKE. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
614 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT MON APR 6 2015
Latest surface analysis indicating a stationary front located over
extreme northern Illinois through northern Iowa, which is forecast
to hold to our north until tonight when it will start to edge south
across the forecast area. Meanwhile, our persistent southerly flow
has brought an increase in cloud cover to the forecast area early
this morning along with a few sprinkles being reported to our south
at Mattoon and Salem during the past hour. RAP forecast soundings
showing the depth of the moisture will not be very deep today,
roughly 3000-4000 feet, so any light rain that is able to make it to
the ground will not amount to much. Short term models do indicate a
subtle shortwave tracking east across the forecast area through
early morning which may be enough to shake out some light rain from
time to time, especially across the south and east. Had low chance
POPs going in the east and see no reason to change that, with the
better chances for showers and thunderstorms arriving by late this
afternoon across the far northwest. RAP and HRRR models also forecast
surface dew points to increase to around 50 degrees over the south
half of the area by later today, compared with upper teens to low 20
dew points this past weekend.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT MON APR 6 2015
NWP models continue to show an active weather pattern from tonight
through Thursday night, with periodic rain chances. Potential for
storms will initially be limited to mainly our western counties
tonight, with the SPC marginal risk area covering west of Rushville
to Taylorville. The best chance of strong to severe storms still
looks to be Thursday afternoon/eve with the arrival of a stronger
shortwave and cold front.
A stationary front across northern Illinois will be the focus for
showers to develop tonight, once moisture levels increase and
frontogenetic forcing intensifies. The front is expected to drift
southward into central IL tonight, stalling out again roughly along
I-72 from Tuesday through Wednesday night.
Weakening low pressure will progress into western Illinois Tuesday
afternoon, with an increase of F-gen forcing and instability across
our central and northern counties. However, better potential for
strong storms will remain west of IL. Forcing for storms Wed
afternoon appears tied to shortwaves tracking over the top of low
level F-gen forcing, but severe potential appears low again late Wed
and Wed night.
While the models are indicating QPF amounts in every period this
week, there will be extended breaks in the rainfall in the wake of
individual waves that progress eastward along the frontal boundary.
Despite continued model differences in timing, we tried to highlight
the periods with the best chances for precip with likely or higher
PoPs. Right now, that includes tonight into Tuesday mainly in the
north, Wed night in the south, Thurs in the west, and Thur night in
the east.
A more substantial low along the Pacific coast will push east into
the Rockies on Wednesday, reaching northern IL Thursday night.
Impacts from that system will be felt in our area as early as Wed
night, especially closer to the front in our southern counties.
Severe potential will ramp up on Thursday afternoon as a surface low
pressure center approaches NW IL and a cold front reaches western
IL. That front will progress across IL Thur night, with support
aloft from an intensifying jet streak. Wind shear and instability
params appear favorable for rotating storms with large hail,
damaging winds and even a few tornadoes. At this point, model
consensus points toward storms affecting areas W of I-55 Thur aftn,
and east of I-55 Thurs evening.
A few showers could linger Friday morning east of I-57, but most
areas should be dry on Friday. That break from rain/storms is
expected to continue into the weekend, under surface high pressure.
The next weather disturbance could arrive later Sunday afternoon, as
the upper flow remains relatively zonal. More significant pattern
differences in the extended models are keeping confidence low on
timing, so will keep chance PoPs confined to our far western
counties Sunday for now.
Temperatures through the week will be closely tied to the
oscillation of the stationary front south then north through central
IL. We kept temps well above guidance in the southern counties until
the cold frontal passage Thursday night, while northern areas were
kept closer to normal temps after the front drifts south toward I-72
for Tuesday to Thursday. Thursday looks to be the warmest day of the
week, with cooler conditions from Friday through Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT MON APR 6 2015
MVFR cigs are expected to expand north and cover most of our
area today with IFR cigs expected tonight with scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms. Low level moisture continues to
increase from south to north with cigs lowering to 2500-3500
feet at SPI and DEC and would expect our other sites to see
the same happen this morning and then continue with MVFR cigs
this afternoon. The threat for precip increases tonight with
cigs lowering to at least tempo IFR in -SHRA with VCTS.
Surface winds today will remain out of the south at 10 to 15 kts
with winds backing a bit more into a southeasterly direction
tonight at 8 to 13 kts.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1026 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT
LAKES THIS WEEK...SERVING AS A FOCAL POINT FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WAVES RIPPLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND THROUGH THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOR SATURDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS A RETURN TO MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR
THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 939 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH MOST OF THEM ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. HRRR INDICATES A FEW
MORE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST. CURRENT FORECAST
REFLECTS THESE WELL SO ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AS WELL.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS GRADUALLY BEING
GOBBLED UP BY THE AMBIENT DRY AIRMASS PRESENT OVER THE REGION AS
THEY MOVE NORTHEAST. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S AS
OF 07Z...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA HAD SLIPPED INTO THE UPPER 30S.
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK QUICKLY EXPANDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND
WILL ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE REGION PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. AS MENTIONED...
INITIAL BATCH OF LIGHT SHOWERS ARE DIMINISHING AS THEY MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE DRY AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S. STILL
THOUGH THIS INITIAL BATCH OF MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTENING PROCESS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER WAVE WILL PASS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
DEEPENING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HOWEVER WILL WARRANT A CONTINUED LOW
CHANCE POPS WITH HI-RES WRF/HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WITH
THAT BEING SAID...IT WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS WITH
EXTENDED PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER. WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
EXPAND NORTH INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
PUSH OF WARM ADVECTION AND WILL MAINTAIN AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPS...THICK STRATUS DEVELOPING DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND
SCATTERED PRECIP WILL SERVE TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN A BIT DESPITE
INCREASING WARM ADVECTION. REALLY HARD TO ARGUE WITH MOS GUIDANCE
WHICH SUPPORTS HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE SHORT
TERM ALONG WITH TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
UNCERTAINTIES ON PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION.
ACTIVE PATTERN SETTING UP THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH CLASSIC SIGNS FOR A
WET UNSETTLED SPRING REGIME FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. BROAD UPPER TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN U S WITH RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL PRODUCE A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT WILL ADVECT
PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS. AT THE
SURFACE...SETUP IS IDEAL FOR A PROLONGED RICH GULF MOISTURE FETCH
INTO THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST AND PERSISTENT
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS PIECES OF ENERGY ALOFT KICK
OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH. SEVERAL WAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT OSCILLATES OVER THE REGION FOR THE DURATION OF THE
SHORT TERM.
WHILE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND TIMING OF THE WAVES VARY SLIGHTLY
BETWEEN SPECIFIC MODELS...CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR EVERY
FORECAST PERIOD. FIRST UPPER WAVE SET TO ARRIVE OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT AS A 45KT 850MB JET NOSES INTO THE REGION. AMPLE FORCING
ALOFT AND INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
EXPANSION FROM LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LOCATION OF THE WARM
FRONT OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA SHOULD SERVE AS AN ADDITIONAL
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...PRIMARILY FOCUSED AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY AS SUBTLE RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE. WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES WITHIN A MOIST AND
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING THAT CAN
DEVELOP WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH CONVECTION CAN GET GOING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT PRESENCE OF THE INSTABILITY AND WARM FRONT ALONE
SUPPORTS MENTION OF SCATTERED CONVECTION. PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS WITH SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING LIKELY TO BE DIFFICULT.
LACK OF MORE APPRECIABLE FORCING ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT MORE ROBUST
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT STRONGER STORMS ARE CERTAINLY A
POSSIBILITY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING FAIR AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE
-30 TO -10C LAYER SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER CELLS TO PRODUCE
HAIL.
AS SURFACE WAVE APPROACHES TUESDAY EVENING...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN RAMP UP WITH LIKELY POPS WARRANTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. ONCE AGAIN...MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL
DEPART BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT RETURNS. SCATTERED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. STILL HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY
COMES INTO THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH VASTLY DIFFERENT
WEATHER DEPENDING ON WHICH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY ONE SITS. NORTH OF
THE FRONT...NORTHEAST WINDS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP IT
DAMP AND COOL. SOUTH OF THE FRONT HOWEVER...COULD MAKE A SOLID
ARGUMENT THAT WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE FIRST TRULY WARM HUMID DAY OF
THE SPRING...ESPECIALLY IF THE SUN CAN COME OUT FOR ANY LENGTH OF
TIME. RIGHT NOW...SUSPECT THE BOUNDARY DOES NOT GET ANY FURTHER
SOUTH THAN I-70 BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTING OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY
AS DIFFLUENCE ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION AND DEEPER MOISTURE
WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES ADVECT IN.
TEMPS...UNDERCUT HIGHS SLIGHTLY FROM GUIDANCE TUESDAY WITH CLOUD
COVER LINGERING. STILL THINK MUCH OF THE AREA WILL GET INTO THE
LOWER 70S. TEMP FORECAST WEDNESDAY MUCH TRICKIER AND COMPLETELY
DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT. UNDERCUT MOS BY SEVERAL
DEGREES OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH
WARMER THAN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTH OF I-70 HOWEVER...LOW TO MID 70S
LOOK ACHIEVABLE WITH POTENTIAL TO GO EVEN WARMER SHOULD MORE
SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING TAKE PLACE. LEANED TOWARDS MOS FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION WAS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHTS
OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE WENT COOLER THAN MAVMOS DUE TO FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOCATION.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
ENSEMBLES INDICATE AN ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD. A MEAN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES LATE THIS WEEK...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER LONG
WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS BY NEXT SUNDAY.
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS SURFACE
SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.
PROGGED PRECIPITABLE WATERS OFF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY...SO HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE. THIS SYSTEM
MAY BE QUITE DYNAMIC AS WELL...WITH SOME OF THE OPERATIONAL MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AN ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL JET AROUND 80 KTS.
APPEARS THE SURFACE FRONT WILL GET ENOUGH OF A SHOVE EAST TO END THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT BY SATURDAY.
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE PRECIPITATION THREAT MAY MOVE BACK INTO THE
AREA AS EARLY AS NEXT SUNDAY IN THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN THAT
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF NEXT PLAINS TROUGH. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
NEXT SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 061500Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SUSTAINED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION TODAY WILL RESULT IN CEILINGS
GRADUALLY FALLING DURING THE DAY...REACHING THE MVFR CATEGORY LATER
THIS MORNING OR DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. APPEARS CEILINGS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE IFR UNTIL TOWARDS/AFTER 070000Z.
A PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING HOURS...AND MAYBE ANOTHER ENHANCED CHANCE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. LIFT LOOKS RATHER DISORGANIZED TODAY...SO EXPECTING ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON
VISIBILITIES FOR ANY PROLONGED PERIODS OF TIME.
MODELS SUGGEST A DECENT AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...SO CONVECTIVE THREAT EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE TAF SITES AFTER DARK.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 170-190 DEGREES AT 7-10 KTS TODAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/50
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS/JH
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
939 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT
LAKES THIS WEEK...SERVING AS A FOCAL POINT FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WAVES RIPPLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND THROUGH THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOR SATURDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS A RETURN TO MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR
THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 939 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH MOST OF THEM ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. HRRR INDICATES A FEW
MORE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST. CURRENT FORECAST
REFLECTS THESE WELL SO ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AS WELL.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS GRADUALLY BEING
GOBBLED UP BY THE AMBIENT DRY AIRMASS PRESENT OVER THE REGION AS
THEY MOVE NORTHEAST. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S AS
OF 07Z...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA HAD SLIPPED INTO THE UPPER 30S.
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK QUICKLY EXPANDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND
WILL ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE REGION PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. AS MENTIONED...
INITIAL BATCH OF LIGHT SHOWERS ARE DIMINISHING AS THEY MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE DRY AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S. STILL
THOUGH THIS INITIAL BATCH OF MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTENING PROCESS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER WAVE WILL PASS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
DEEPENING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HOWEVER WILL WARRANT A CONTINUED LOW
CHANCE POPS WITH HI-RES WRF/HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WITH
THAT BEING SAID...IT WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS WITH
EXTENDED PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER. WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
EXPAND NORTH INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
PUSH OF WARM ADVECTION AND WILL MAINTAIN AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPS...THICK STRATUS DEVELOPING DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND
SCATTERED PRECIP WILL SERVE TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN A BIT DESPITE
INCREASING WARM ADVECTION. REALLY HARD TO ARGUE WITH MOS GUIDANCE
WHICH SUPPORTS HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE SHORT
TERM ALONG WITH TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
UNCERTAINTIES ON PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION.
ACTIVE PATTERN SETTING UP THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH CLASSIC SIGNS FOR A
WET UNSETTLED SPRING REGIME FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. BROAD UPPER TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN U S WITH RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL PRODUCE A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT WILL ADVECT
PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS. AT THE
SURFACE...SETUP IS IDEAL FOR A PROLONGED RICH GULF MOISTURE FETCH
INTO THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST AND PERSISTENT
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS PIECES OF ENERGY ALOFT KICK
OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH. SEVERAL WAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT OSCILLATES OVER THE REGION FOR THE DURATION OF THE
SHORT TERM.
WHILE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND TIMING OF THE WAVES VARY SLIGHTLY
BETWEEN SPECIFIC MODELS...CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR EVERY
FORECAST PERIOD. FIRST UPPER WAVE SET TO ARRIVE OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT AS A 45KT 850MB JET NOSES INTO THE REGION. AMPLE FORCING
ALOFT AND INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
EXPANSION FROM LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LOCATION OF THE WARM
FRONT OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA SHOULD SERVE AS AN ADDITIONAL
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...PRIMARILY FOCUSED AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY AS SUBTLE RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE. WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES WITHIN A MOIST AND
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING THAT CAN
DEVELOP WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH CONVECTION CAN GET GOING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT PRESENCE OF THE INSTABILITY AND WARM FRONT ALONE
SUPPORTS MENTION OF SCATTERED CONVECTION. PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS WITH SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING LIKELY TO BE DIFFICULT.
LACK OF MORE APPRECIABLE FORCING ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT MORE ROBUST
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT STRONGER STORMS ARE CERTAINLY A
POSSIBILITY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING FAIR AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE
-30 TO -10C LAYER SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER CELLS TO PRODUCE
HAIL.
AS SURFACE WAVE APPROACHES TUESDAY EVENING...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN RAMP UP WITH LIKELY POPS WARRANTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. ONCE AGAIN...MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL
DEPART BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT RETURNS. SCATTERED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. STILL HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY
COMES INTO THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH VASTLY DIFFERENT
WEATHER DEPENDING ON WHICH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY ONE SITS. NORTH OF
THE FRONT...NORTHEAST WINDS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP IT
DAMP AND COOL. SOUTH OF THE FRONT HOWEVER...COULD MAKE A SOLID
ARGUMENT THAT WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE FIRST TRULY WARM HUMID DAY OF
THE SPRING...ESPECIALLY IF THE SUN CAN COME OUT FOR ANY LENGTH OF
TIME. RIGHT NOW...SUSPECT THE BOUNDARY DOES NOT GET ANY FURTHER
SOUTH THAN I-70 BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTING OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY
AS DIFFLUENCE ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION AND DEEPER MOISTURE
WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES ADVECT IN.
TEMPS...UNDERCUT HIGHS SLIGHTLY FROM GUIDANCE TUESDAY WITH CLOUD
COVER LINGERING. STILL THINK MUCH OF THE AREA WILL GET INTO THE
LOWER 70S. TEMP FORECAST WEDNESDAY MUCH TRICKIER AND COMPLETELY
DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT. UNDERCUT MOS BY SEVERAL
DEGREES OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH
WARMER THAN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTH OF I-70 HOWEVER...LOW TO MID 70S
LOOK ACHIEVABLE WITH POTENTIAL TO GO EVEN WARMER SHOULD MORE
SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING TAKE PLACE. LEANED TOWARDS MOS FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION WAS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHTS
OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE WENT COOLER THAN MAVMOS DUE TO FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOCATION.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
ENSEMBLES INDICATE AN ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD. A MEAN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES LATE THIS WEEK...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER LONG
WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS BY NEXT SUNDAY.
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS SURFACE
SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.
PROGGED PRECIPITABLE WATERS OFF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY...SO HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE. THIS SYSTEM
MAY BE QUITE DYNAMIC AS WELL...WITH SOME OF THE OPERATIONAL MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AN ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL JET AROUND 80 KTS.
APPEARS THE SURFACE FRONT WILL GET ENOUGH OF A SHOVE EAST TO END THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT BY SATURDAY.
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE PRECIPITATION THREAT MAY MOVE BACK INTO THE
AREA AS EARLY AS NEXT SUNDAY IN THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN THAT
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF NEXT PLAINS TROUGH. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
NEXT SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 061200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 632 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
SUSTAINED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION TODAY WILL RESULT IN CEILINGS
GRADUALLY FALLING DURING THE DAY...REACHING THE MVFR CATEGORY LATER
THIS MORNING OR DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. APPEARS CEILINGS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE IFR UNTIL TOWARDS/AFTER 070000Z.
A PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING HOURS...AND MAYBE ANOTHER ENHANCED CHANCE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. LIFT LOOKS RATHER DISORGANIZED TODAY...SO EXPECTING ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON
VISIBILITIES FOR ANY PROLONGED PERIODS OF TIME.
MODELS SUGGEST A DECENT AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...SO CONVECTIVE THREAT EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE TAF SITES AFTER DARK.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 170-190 DEGREES AT 7-10 KTS TODAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/50
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
623 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2015
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 331 AM CDT MON APR 6 2015
08Z water vapor imagery shows a closed low off the coast of the
pacific northwest with a general southwesterly flow from
southern CA to the central plains. Aside from a few weak
perturbations within the flow, there is no obvious shortwave
immediately upstream of the forecast area. At the surface, moisture
has been on the return north between high pressure over the
southeastern U.S. and low pressure in the lee of the Rockies.
For today, the main questions to the forecast is whether the stratus
remains in place or if parts of central KS are able to clear out.
The 00Z NAM appears to be an outlier in that it keeps the main area
of low pressure further west over eastern CO while most all other
guidance brings the low further into KS and a surface trough with
some dry air into central KS. Because of this have leaned towards
the GFS/RAP solutions of scattering out the stratus across central
KS, but keeping it in across extreme eastern KS. This should favor a
strong temp gradient across the forecast area with lower 70s east
due to cloud cover and limited mixing while out around Abilene
should mix deeper with afternoon sunshine helping temps warm into
the lower 80s. All the models keep a stout elevated mixed layer over
the boundary layer today save for central KS where warming surface
temps could diminish the cap. However there does not look to be much
surface based instability along the trough axis as dry air from
aloft mixes to the surface. Since there is no obvious forcing
mechanism, think chances for afternoon thunderstorms is to low to
include a mention and some drizzle through the morning is about
all the sensible weather we`ll see today.
Tonight may be a different scenario as the trough axis or boundary
over the area helps to lift parcels as the low level jet increases.
Except for the NAM (which is not favored), models keep this feature
mainly across far northern KS. And then there is still somewhat of
an inversion to overcome. Because of this, think the better chances
for thunderstorms may end up being to the north and east of the
forecast area. This is also where the stronger theta-e advection if
progged to occur. Nevertheless have maintained some modest POPs as
it is difficult to rule out some showers and storms. Confidence in
the forecast is below average since there is such a fine line where
the boundary sets up and chances for precip. Think with low level
moisture remaining high across eastern KS overnight, that the
stratus could expand back west and south tonight. Lows south of the
boundary should be warm in the lower 60s with temps tapering off into
the mid 50s over north central KS.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT MON APR 6 2015
Main upper trough axis digs southeast over southern California
Tuesday, ejecting an embedded shortwave trough towards the northern
plains by Tuesday afternoon. Convection develops north and east over
Nebraska while the surface trough shifts eastward, forcing the
cold front southeast towards east central and southeast Kansas.
Details on how quickly stratus clears out ahead of the front to
dewpoints and available instability are still varying between
guidance. Forecast soundings at Chanute from the NAM and GFS erode
the capping inversion by early evening where sfc based CAPE is
somewhat varied due to the 10 degree dewpoint spread, but overall
2500 J/KG. Bulk shear is at 40 KTS from the southwest. Areas south
of Interstate 35 may still see the best chance for severe updrafts
forming with large hail and damaging winds. Activity may spread
further north overnight Tuesday aided by the veering low level jet however
believe elevated convection will be the primary mode for far eastern
Kansas.
Wednesday is still on track for the best chance of severe storms
to form somewhere across the region as strong height falls occur
with the approaching negatively tilted trough. Boundary is expected
to lift back north as a warm front, and the dryline shifts over
central Kansas by late afternoon. Much of the area should see
dewpoints around 60 degrees underneath a stratus deck during the
afternoon as highs warm to the upper 70s. With models having the
boundary progged near the Interstate 70 corridor, inhibition becomes
minimal with sfc CAPE approaching 2500 J/KG. Support from the wave
enhances effective shear in excess of 50 KTS, focusing development
near the Interstate 70 corridor and further west along the dryline.
Either way, supercells may develop over the area or lift northeast
into the area from the dry line. Large hail, damaging winds, and a
few tornadoes are all possible. Stay tuned for changes in the
forecast as this system currently would have a high impact on
northeast Kansas. Activity would quickly track northeast with the
sfc low overnight, with precip clearing eastward Thursday morning.
Guidance Thursday afternoon is beginning to trend the severe weather
threat a bit further east. While the previous ECMWF runs were trending
slower with the main trough axis compared to the GFS and GEM, latest
run is now tracking the sfc low and attendant dryline towards
western MO by late afternoon. This would keep the severe threat
further east as well with much of the area in mostly clear and dry
conditions. Have trended down precip chances some, especially
western areas, but wanted to keep a chance for thunderstorms over the
eastern half of the CWA in case models shift again. This may alter
temps as well which I currently have from the middle 60s in north
central Kansas, to the upper 70s in eastern Kansas.
The system exits Friday with sunny skies and gusty north winds
through the day. Temperatures fall back to the 60s before flow
pattern quickly transitions as a weak shortwave trough enters central
Kansas on Saturday. Kept the forecast dry for now, until a stronger
shortwave trough increases thunderstorm chances Saturday evening and
Sunday across much of the area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 623 AM CDT MON APR 6 2015
Confidence in forecast is not that high as the 10Z RAP has trended
more in line with the NAM keeping at least MVFR CIGS over TOP and
FOE. Still think MHK should scatter out this afternoon. However
all the guidance shows the low CIGS moving back in by the late
evening with another chance for mist and drizzle. Forecast
soundings maintain a stout capping inversion over the boundary
layer with dry mid levels, so think chances for TS during the next
24 hours is to limited to include. Timing changes in VSBY and CIGS
is based on the NAM and RAP with diurnal tendencies in mind,
likely needing refinement as the day progresses.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1104 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1100 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE CWA. THIS HAS MEASURED AT SOME OF THE
MESONET SITES NEAR THE TN BORDER AND AT KEKQ. THIS IS WEAKENING AS
IT MOVES FURTHER EAST INTO THE DRIER AIR AND IS TURNING MORE INTO
VIRGA OR SPRINKLES...BUT WILL GRADUALLY HELP TO SATURATE THE LOWER
LEVELS FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE BASED ON
RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR
SUGGESTING SOME ISOLATED MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH GENERALLY VIRGA AND
SPRINKLES. IN ADDITION...THERE HAVE BEEN SOME BREAKS OR THIN SPOTS
IN THE MID LEVEL DECK WHICH HAS ALLOWED SEVERAL LOCATIONS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 75 TO ALREADY RISE INTO THE 60S...IN SOME CASES THE MID
AND UPPER 60S. IN THOSE AREAS...TEMPERATURES WERE NEARING THE
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST MAX T. THIS COMBINED WITH THE SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VA WILL
LEAD TO SEVERAL PLACES REACHING THE LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON.
ATTM...WE EXPECT THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
NOW OVER WESTERN TN...SE MO AND NE AR TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA AND TN VALLEY REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ON THE LEADING EDGE OR QUASI DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
UPDATED GRIDS AND ZFP HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
A SHALLOW SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTH...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...HAVE LED
TO A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. OUR NEXT
CONCERN IS NOW ANOTHER SUBTLE SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING
OVER THE TEXARKANA REGION...WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS IT
SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY...REACHING JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA BY 6Z TUESDAY.
AS THIS SHORTWAVE NEARS...EXPECT MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO BUILD...AND
EVENTUALLY PRECIP TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. MODELS CONTINUE
TO AGREE ON SLOWING DOWN THE TIMING OF ONSET...WITH QPF NOW LIKELY
TO REACH THE SW EXTENT OF THE CWA AFTER 12Z. IN FACT...THE LATEST
NAM12 AND HRRR HOLDS IT OFF EVEN LONGER...CLOSER TO 18Z.
HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME LIGHT RETURNS ALREADY SHOWING UP ON RADAR
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KY AND PORTIONS OF TN...EXPECT THAT ALL WE NEED
IS SOME DAYLIGHT AND HEATING TO GET THINGS GOING HERE. THE SAME
WILL GO WITH OVERNIGHT...WHEN WE LOSE SOME OF OUR DIURNAL HEATING.
EXPECT THE OVERALL COVERAGE TO GO DOWN BRIEFLY...UNTIL A WARM
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE CLOSE IN CLOSER ON
KY BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS TO START UP ONCE MORE...EVEN BEFORE WE
RECEIVE THE INFLUENCE FROM DAYTIME HEATING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY.
WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR POPS AND TIMING...LOWERING THEM
SLIGHTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT FOR THE ABOVE
MENTIONED LOSS OF FORCING. UNFORTUNATELY...IN THIS TYPE OF SET
UP...GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT AND UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL ENSURE
PRECIP WILL OCCUR...BUT THE EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS
PRECIP IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...AND DIFFERS FROM MODEL TO
MODEL. GIVEN THE LATEST NAM12 FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY...SO
KEPT WITH ONLY RAIN CHANCES UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON WHEN NEAR SURFACE
TEMPS ARE ABLE TO WARM ENOUGH TO INCREASE THE LAPSE RATES. THE
BEST INSTABILITY WILL ACTUALLY BE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE
COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH SINKS SOUTHWARD AND NEARS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 510 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL AGREE THAT A GRADUALLY
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE UNITED STATES INTO FRIDAY. THROUGH THIS RIDGE A STREAM OF
LOOSE ENERGY PACKETS WILL CROSS OVER KENTUCKY. THIS PROCESS WILL
BE JOINED BY THE ARRIVAL OF A DEEPER TROUGH MOVING EAST THROUGH
THE PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS BRINGS HEIGHT FALLS AND A
MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF ENERGY TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY
EVENING. THE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS WILL LIFT INTO THE GREAT
LAKES THAT NIGHT WITH A RESURGENCE TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE ECMWF
ON SATURDAY DRAGGING MORE ENERGY SOUTH AND INTO KENTUCKY BEFORE
DEPARTING LATER THAT NIGHT. RISING HEIGHTS WILL FOLLOW FOR THE
AREA. THE GFS DOES NOT HAVE THIS RESURGENCE IN ITS SOLUTION SO
THIS DISCREPANCY LOWERS CONFIDENCE FOR THE LATTER PARTS OF THE
EXTENDED...NEVERTHELESS A GENERAL MODEL BLEND WAS FAVORED FOR
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A WARM...WET...AND ACTIVE WEEK FOR
KENTUCKY AS THE STATE WILL BE BELOW A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
RUNNING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FOR MUCH OF THE TIME. VARIOUS
UPPER WAVES AND SFC REFLECTIONS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL KEEP A
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE RISK OF ORGANIZED AND MORE
THREATENING STORMS DEVELOPS LATER THURSDAY AND CONTINUES INTO
FRIDAY DUE TO THE HEIGHT FALLS AND MORE IMPRESSIVE ENERGY STREAM
TARGETING THE REGION...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST. THE MAIN SFC LOW
LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH THE AREA FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. GIVEN THE OPEN GULF AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE...MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINS WILL BE A THREAT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. DRIER
WEATHER DOES FOLLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL ALSO BRING MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO THE STATE FOLLOWING A WEEK OF ABOVE
NORMAL WARMTH...WHERE SOME LOW 80S WILL LIKELY BE SEEN...DESPITE
THE OCCASIONAL RAIN.
THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN REASONABLY WELL WITH JUST SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO POPS TO BETTER REFLECT A DIURNAL TREND. ALSO
MADE SOME TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS EACH NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 733 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO SPARK
SHOWERS AND EVENTUALLY THUNDERSTORMS AS WE HEAD THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. EXPECT COVERAGE TO INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXACT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL
AS WHEN OR IF THEY WILL IMPACT A SPECIFIC TAF SITE...IS STILL IN
LOW CONFIDENCE...SO TRIED TO KEEP GENERALIZED IN TAFS. BY
OVERNIGHT...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
EAST OF THE REGION...WILL SUPPRESS SOME OF THE COVERAGE ACROSS
EASTERN KY. CIGS WILL SLOWLY LOWER THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD...LIKELY REACHING MVFR STATUS BY THIS EVENING AND THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. VIS WILL ALSO LIKELY BE RESTRICTED DURING ANY RAIN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ULTIMATELY WILL FLUCTUATE DEPENDING
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SHOWERS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
733 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
A SHALLOW SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTH...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...HAVE LED
TO A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. OUR NEXT
CONCERN IS NOW ANOTHER SUBTLE SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING
OVER THE TEXARKANA REGION...WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS IT
SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY...REACHING JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA BY 6Z TUESDAY.
AS THIS SHORTWAVE NEARS...EXPECT MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO BUILD...AND
EVENTUALLY PRECIP TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. MODELS CONTINUE
TO AGREE ON SLOWING DOWN THE TIMING OF ONSET...WITH QPF NOW LIKELY
TO REACH THE SW EXTENT OF THE CWA AFTER 12Z. IN FACT...THE LATEST
NAM12 AND HRRR HOLDS IT OFF EVEN LONGER...CLOSER TO 18Z.
HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME LIGHT RETURNS ALREADY SHOWING UP ON RADAR
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KY AND PORTIONS OF TN...EXPECT THAT ALL WE NEED
IS SOME DAYLIGHT AND HEATING TO GET THINGS GOING HERE. THE SAME
WILL GO WITH OVERNIGHT...WHEN WE LOSE SOME OF OUR DIURNAL HEATING.
EXPECT THE OVERALL COVERAGE TO GO DOWN BRIEFLY...UNTIL A WARM
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE CLOSE IN CLOSER ON
KY BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS TO START UP ONCE MORE...EVEN BEFORE WE
RECEIVE THE INFLUENCE FROM DAYTIME HEATING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY.
WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR POPS AND TIMING...LOWERING THEM
SLIGHTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT FOR THE ABOVE
MENTIONED LOSS OF FORCING. UNFORTUNATELY...IN THIS TYPE OF SET
UP...GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT AND UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL ENSURE
PRECIP WILL OCCUR...BUT THE EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS
PRECIP IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...AND DIFFERS FROM MODEL TO
MODEL. GIVEN THE LATEST NAM12 FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY...SO
KEPT WITH ONLY RAIN CHANCES UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON WHEN NEAR SURFACE
TEMPS ARE ABLE TO WARM ENOUGH TO INCREASE THE LAPSE RATES. THE
BEST INSTABILITY WILL ACTUALLY BE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE
COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH SINKS SOUTHWARD AND NEARS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 510 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL AGREE THAT A GRADUALLY
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE UNITED STATES INTO FRIDAY. THROUGH THIS RIDGE A STREAM OF
LOOSE ENERGY PACKETS WILL CROSS OVER KENTUCKY. THIS PROCESS WILL
BE JOINED BY THE ARRIVAL OF A DEEPER TROUGH MOVING EAST THROUGH
THE PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS BRINGS HEIGHT FALLS AND A
MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF ENERGY TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY
EVENING. THE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS WILL LIFT INTO THE GREAT
LAKES THAT NIGHT WITH A RESURGENCE TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE ECMWF
ON SATURDAY DRAGGING MORE ENERGY SOUTH AND INTO KENTUCKY BEFORE
DEPARTING LATER THAT NIGHT. RISING HEIGHTS WILL FOLLOW FOR THE
AREA. THE GFS DOES NOT HAVE THIS RESURGENCE IN ITS SOLUTION SO
THIS DISCREPANCY LOWERS CONFIDENCE FOR THE LATTER PARTS OF THE
EXTENDED...NEVERTHELESS A GENERAL MODEL BLEND WAS FAVORED FOR
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A WARM...WET...AND ACTIVE WEEK FOR
KENTUCKY AS THE STATE WILL BE BELOW A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
RUNNING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FOR MUCH OF THE TIME. VARIOUS
UPPER WAVES AND SFC REFLECTIONS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL KEEP A
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE RISK OF ORGANIZED AND MORE
THREATENING STORMS DEVELOPS LATER THURSDAY AND CONTINUES INTO
FRIDAY DUE TO THE HEIGHT FALLS AND MORE IMPRESSIVE ENERGY STREAM
TARGETING THE REGION...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST. THE MAIN SFC LOW
LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH THE AREA FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. GIVEN THE OPEN GULF AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE...MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINS WILL BE A THREAT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. DRIER
WEATHER DOES FOLLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL ALSO BRING MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO THE STATE FOLLOWING A WEEK OF ABOVE
NORMAL WARMTH...WHERE SOME LOW 80S WILL LIKELY BE SEEN...DESPITE
THE OCCASIONAL RAIN.
THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN REASONABLY WELL WITH JUST SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO POPS TO BETTER REFLECT A DIURNAL TREND. ALSO
MADE SOME TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS EACH NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 733 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO SPARK
SHOWERS AND EVENTUALLY THUNDERSTORMS AS WE HEAD THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. EXPECT COVERAGE TO INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXACT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL
AS WHEN OR IF THEY WILL IMPACT A SPECIFIC TAF SITE...IS STILL IN
LOW CONFIDENCE...SO TRIED TO KEEP GENERALIZED IN TAFS. BY
OVERNIGHT...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
EAST OF THE REGION...WILL SUPPRESS SOME OF THE COVERAGE ACROSS
EASTERN KY. CIGS WILL SLOWLY LOWER THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD...LIKELY REACHING MVFR STATUS BY THIS EVENING AND THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. VIS WILL ALSO LIKELY BE RESTRICTED DURING ANY RAIN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ULTIMATELY WILL FLUCTUATE DEPENDING
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SHOWERS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
515 AM CDT MON APR 6 2015
.AVIATION...
DEALING WITH MOSTLY LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS RANGING FROM JUST
BELOW ONE MILE TO MVFR VSBYS EARLY THIS MORNING. SFC WINDS HAVE
VEERED AROUND TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THIS MORNING AND
WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WINDS HAVE STAYED UP JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP VSBYS FROM
BECOMING TOO RESTRICTED AND TOO WIDESPREAD.
FOR THE MORNING...WILL SHOW A SLOW BUT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO
VSBYS AND CEILINGS WITH SOME PARTIAL SCATTERING OUT OF THE LOW
CLOUD COVER BY AFTN.
GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE WEST
TODAY...HAVE SHOWN SOME HIGHER GUSTS AT OR NEAR 20KTS OR SO ACROSS
OUR NE TX TERMINAL LOCATIONS.
SHOULD HAVE SCATTERED CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING BUT THIS WILL BE
TEMPORARY AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AND WITH
THAT WILL BE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG AS WELL.
13
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT MON APR 6 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION IS MOVING ACROSS CNTRL TX THIS MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE IN THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT.
MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS WAY TOO WET...DEPICTING QUITE A BIT
OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA ALREADY THAT IS NOT PRESENT..AND DID NOT
PICK UP ON THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER CNTRL TX. HRRR SEEMS TO
HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT CONDITIONS AND BRINGS THE
WEAKENING CLUSTER INTO OUR NW ZONES...LIKELY ALONG OR JUST SOUTH
OF I-30...TODAY BUT APPEARS TO BE TO FAST. 06Z NAM HAS THE
CLUSTER AND SEEMS TO HANDLE TIMING WELL BUT DISSIPATES THE
CONVECTION REACH OUR AREA. HAVE COMPROMISED BY GOING SLIGHT CHANCE
AREAWIDE THIS MORNING FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND THEN TRIMMING THE
POPS BACK SLIGHTLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY REMNANTS
OF THE TX CONVECTION. PRECIP SHOULD END BY SUNSET THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE DIFFICULT. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER MAY REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO BREAK LATE BUT
QUICK WARMING SHOULD OCCUR IF THE CLOUDS TO SCATTER. BEST CHANCES
FOR SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BE SOUTH OF I-20.
THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE PAC NW COAST SHOULD BE MOVING
ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SFC...A LEE TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT SHOULD ORGANIZE AND MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA. LARGE
SCALE ASCENT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH MAY LEAD TO SOME CONVECTION
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-30 BY LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. BEST
DYNAMICS FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE NORTH OF OUR AREA AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW TRACK ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH
KS/IA. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD STILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME SEVERE TSTMS THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH THE GULF COAST BEFORE STALLING BRIEFLY
AND MOVING BACK NWD AS A WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
RAIN IN THE FORECAST PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF I-20. 00Z
GFS/ECMWF...WHILE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS PARTICULAR
RUN...ARE VERY INCONSISTENT ON A RUN-TO-RUN BASIS REGARDING
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE REGION
DURING DAY 7-8 TIME FRAME FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE DETAILS REMAIN SKETCHY...IT APPEARS MORE
UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER IS ON THE WAY. /09/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 80 64 83 65 / 20 10 10 10
MLU 79 65 84 65 / 20 10 10 10
DEQ 75 62 78 62 / 20 10 10 10
TXK 77 63 81 63 / 20 10 10 10
ELD 76 63 80 64 / 20 10 10 10
TYR 80 64 82 65 / 20 10 10 10
GGG 79 64 82 65 / 20 10 10 10
LFK 81 65 83 67 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
09/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
753 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 654 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
BASED ON PERSISTENCE OF HIER RADAR ECHOES/LOWER VSBY ALONG THE WI
BORDER WITHIN RATHER NARROW FGEN BAND AS WELL AS SOME HEAVIER SN
REPORTS JUST S OF THE WI BORDER THAT ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE HIER
QPF SHOWN BY THE VARIOUS HI RES MODELS...OPTED TO ISSUE ADVY FOR
IRON...DICKINSON AND DELTA COUNTIES FOR AS MUCH AS 4 TO PERHAPS 5
INCHES. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE STEADIER SN WL DIMINSH BY MID MRNG WITH
PASSAGE OF DISTURBANCE TO THE E.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A CONFLUENT W FLOW
OVER THE UPR LKS BTWN ARCTIC BRANCH CLOSED LO OVER NRN QUEBEC AND
POLAR/SUBTROPICAL BRANCH UPR RDG IN THE NRN PLAINS. THERE IS A SHARP
H85 WARM FNT ORIENTED W-E ACRS THE UPR MIDWEST SEPARATING THE VERY
COLD AIR OVER ONTARIO...WHERE THE 00Z H85 TEMP WAS -16C AT YPL FROM
MUCH WARMER AIR IN THE CENTRAL CONUS...WHERE THE 00Z H85 TEMP WAS 9C
AT OMAHA. A RATHER NARROW W-E BAND OF SN IN THE GENERAL ISENTROPIC
ASCENT N OF THE WARM FNT AND UNDER SOME UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF 120KT H3
JET MAX IN SE CANADA IS ORIENTED FM CENTRAL MN ACRS NRN WI INTO MNM
COUNTY EARLY THIS MRNG ALONG AXIS OF SHARPEST FGEN BEST DEFINED IN
THE H7-6 LYR. BUT OVERALL DRYNESS OF THE LLVL AIRMASS IN THE AREA...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS TO THE N CLOSER TO SFC HI PRES ORIENTED FM SRN
MANITOBA ACRS FAR NRN LK SUP AND INTO SW QUEBEC...IS LIMITING THE
COVERAGE OF THE PCPN TO A FAIRLY NARROW BAND. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
INDICATES INCRSG REFLECTIVITIES IN MN AHEAD OF A SHRTWV MOVING E
THRU THE NRN PLAINS AS INDICATED ON WV IMAGERY.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WL FOCUS ON POPS/SN AMOUNTS
OVER MAINLY THE SRN TIER COUNTIES THIS MRNG ASSOCIATED WITH NARROW
BAND OF SN AND NEEDED HEADLINES.
TODAY...SHRTWV/AREA OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC NOW BRINGING
ENHANCEMENT TO THE PCPN OVER MN AND NRN WI IS FCST TO SLIDE E EARLY
THIS MRNG...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MORE FOCUSED DYNAMIC SUPPORT TO THE
CWA MAINLY TRHU MID MRNG. RECENT RADAR TRENDS SHOWING SOME
INTENSIFICATION OF THE ECHOES IN NW WI SUPPORT SOME OF THE RECENT
HIER RES MODEL FCSTS LIKE THE 00Z NAM OF THE HIER QPF UP TO ABOUT
0.30-0.35 INCH DRIFTING FARTHER TO THE N INTO THE WI BORDER
COUNTIES...A QPF CONSISTENT WITH THE 3 G/KG SPECIFIC HUMIDITY
PRESENT ARND H7. RATHER HI...NARROW DGZ SHOWN ON FCST SDNGS WL NOT
SUPPORT SN/WATER RATIO MUCH HIER THAN 10:1 IN THIS AREA. CONSIDERING
ADDING THESE COUNTIES TO ADVY...BUT POTENTIAL IMPACT OF LLVL DRY AIR
TO THE N THAT MIGHT LOWER THE QPF TO WHAT IS SHOWN ON SOME OF THE
OTHER HI RES MODELS LIKE THE HRRR INDICATE AN SPS FOR UP TO ABOUT 3
INCHES NEAR THE BORDER IN IRON AND DICKINSON COUNTIES AS WELL
AS DELTA COUNTY MIGHT BE A BETTER STATEGY. WL MAINTAIN THE WINTER WX
ADVY FOR MENOMINEE COUNTY. SINCE FCST SDNGS DO NOT SHOW AN ELEVATED
WARM LYR THAT FEATURES TEMPS ABOVE 0C...REMOVED THE MENTION OF MIXED
PCPN THIS MRNG. THE EXTENT OF THE DRY AIR TO THE N WL LIKELY RESULT
IN A SHARPER NRN EDGE OF THE MORE SGNFT PCPN THAN IS SHOWN BY THE
MODELS. ARRIVAL OF QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING SHRTWV BY LATE MRNG WL CAUSE THE SN BAND TO DIMINISH...WITH
LINGERING LGT PCPN OVER THE SCENTRAL TRANSITIONING TO A MIX OF
SN WITH SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT RA AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE MID/UPR 30S.
ARRIVAL OF SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE NRN TIER COUNTIES THIS AFTN WL
END ANY LINGERING PCPN THERE EVEN AS SOME CLDS LINGER.
TNGT...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE HINTS ANOTHER SHRTWV/SOME DYNAMIC SUPPORT
WL PUSH INTO THE AREA FM THE W IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...THE
CONTINUED ARRIVAL OF DRIER LLVL AIR SHOULD LIMIT POPS TO THE
SCENTRAL. TENDED TO CUT POPS FM PREVIOUS FCST ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NRN TIER...WITH NO HIER THAN CHC POPS EVEN NEAR THE WI BORDER.
LINGERING CLDS WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL EVEN WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF LLVL DRIER AIR.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
THE LONG TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A FRUSTRATING EXPERIENCE WHEN
ATTEMPTING TO PIN DOWN THE FINER DETAILS OF THE FORECAST. ESPECIALLY
WITH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
DISTURBANCES AND HAVING THERMAL PROFILES THAT SUPPORT MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND FREEZING RAIN.
THE START OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST HAS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
BETWEEN A HIGH MOVING EAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE WARM FRONT DRAPED
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THIS
WARM FRONT SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH ON TUESDAY...WOULD EXPECT THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION TO STAY SOUTH OF THE CWA...BUT THE AREA
CONTINUES TO SEE WEAK SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND THROUGH THE REGION. WITH THE FLUCTUATIONS
IN THE MODELS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...WILL OPT TO TREND THE
FORECAST IN THE LATEST DIRECTIONS WITH OUT GETTING TOO SPECIFIC.
THEREFORE FOR TUESDAY...THINK THE DRY AIR (BETWEEN 850-750MB)
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO WILL KEEP THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA DRY WHILE THE AREA ALONG THE WISCONSIN
BORDER MAY SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
850-700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION INITIALLY IN THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF THE ICE CRYSTALS CUTTING OUT...OPTED TO KEEP
P-TYPE AS SNOW DUE THE THE AMOUNT OF DRYING OCCURRING IN THE
MORNING. ALTHOUGH THAT DRY AIR IS MOVING IN...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FORCING/MOISTURE WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND 700-600MB TO
SUPPORT CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST 2/3RDS OF THE CWA.
AS THE SURFACE LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES IS SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ANOTHER
STRONGER SHORTWAVE LIFTS EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS STAGE...THINK THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL STAY TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA (TRACKING
THROUGH NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AND INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN). BUT
THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR CHANCES OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE U.P. LOOKING
AT THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...EXPECT MUCH OF THIS PRECIP TO FALL AS
SNOW...BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL WARMING OVER SOUTHERN
MENOMINEE COUNTY TO PARTIALLY MELT THE SNOWFLAKES...LEADING TO SOME
SLEET OR MAYBE EVEN FREEZING RAIN. THAT WAVE QUICKLY DEPARTS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...SO WOULD EXPECT A DRYING
TREND AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE (FROM
THE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST OF JAMES BAY) SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE CWA.
THAT WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THE NEXT WAVE WILL EJECT TOWARDS THE REGION UNDER THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. IN ADDITION TO THE SHORTWAVE...WARM AIR
WILL SURGE NORTH OVER THE REGION...WITH 850-800MB TEMPS WARMING
ABOVE 5C. THUS...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS THROUGH THIS WARM
LAYER WILL MELT AND THE P-TYPE WILL DEPEND ON THE NEAR SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE EXISTING COLD AIR FROM THE DEPARTING
HIGH...WOULD EXPECT PRIMARILY FREEZING RAIN FOR THE START OF THE
EVENT (LOWEST 2KFT ARE BELOW FREEZING)...AS IT DOESN/T LOOK LIKE
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE FOR SLEET. THE
ARRIVAL TIME OF THE PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CRUCIAL FOR THE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FORECAST AS
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH MID
MORNING BEFORE WARMING SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW HIGH CHANCE OR EVEN LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA STARTING VERY
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING THROUGH THURSDAY.
HOPEFULLY...MODELS WILL CLOSE IN ON THE LOCATION OF THE BEST
PRECIPITATION FOR THIS PERIOD...AS IT APPEARS TO BE A DECENT
OPPORTUNITY FOR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE U.P.. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THIS THREAT IN THE HWO AND WITH THE INCREASING CONFIDENCE
START TO PROVIDE A LITTLE MORE DETAIL.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY/SATURDAY...BUT MODELS STILL DIFFERING ON THE DETAILS. WHILE
THE CONSISTENCY IS LACKING...THE LATEST TRENDS WITH THE 00Z MODELS
IS FOR A QUICKER LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WHICH
WOULD ALLOW IT TO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM. THE 00Z ECMWF MADE
A SIGNIFICANT JUMP TOWARDS THE FASTER SOLUTION SEEN IN THE PREVIOUS
GFS RUNS. THAT IS A SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURE FROM THE 12Z ECMWF/GEM
ENSEMBLE MEANS...SO IT WILL BE INTERESTING IF THAT TREND CONTINUES.
OVERALL...FELT A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS WAS REASONABLE FOR
THE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD...WHICH HAS THE NEXT
WAVE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. WITH THE FASTER AND
FARTHER SOUTHEAST TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...A TRANSITION FROM RAIN
OR FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN
ON FRIDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME MEASURABLE ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE
WEST...BUT IT IS STILL WAY TO FAR OUT AND UNCERTAIN TO HAVE AN
INDICATION ON AMOUNTS.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA...SATURDAY COULD SEE SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY. ANOTHER
STRONG SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA ON SATURDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THAT SETS THE
STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE START TO THE NEXT WORK WEEK (RAINY AND POSSIBLY
SOME THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW ON THE
BACKSIDE FOR TUESDAY THE 14TH).
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 743 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
SAW AND IWD ARE CURRENTLY NEAR THE NRN EDGE OF SN SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH WARM FNT TO THE S. THE LLVL ENE FLOW TO THE N OF THE FNT
PRESENTS AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT INTO SAW AND WL ALLOW SOME -SN AND
MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THERE THRU THE MRNG. SINCE THE LLVL WIND
IS DOWNSLOPING INTO IWD...THE BULK OF THE SN AND LOWER CIGS SHOULD
HOLD JUST TO THE S OF THAT LOCATION. CMX IS SITUATED DEEPER INTO THE
DRY AIR...SO VFR CONDITIONS WL BE THE RULE THERE THRU THE DAY.
EXPECTED SURGE OF DRIER AIR LATER TDAY/TNGT WL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL THE SITES TNGT UNDER SOME MID CLDS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
WITH LAKE SUPERIOR SITUATED BETWEEN A HIGH IN SOUTHERN CANADA AND A
WARM FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...EXPECT EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE TIME...WINDS
WILL BE BELOW 25KTS...BUT FUNNELING DOWN THE WESTERN THIRD OF
LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO 30KTS. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY THERE COULD BE
NORTH-NORTHEAST GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AS IT MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING
FOR MIZ010>013.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
655 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 654 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
BASED ON PERSISTENCE OF HIER RADAR ECHOES/LOWER VSBY ALONG THE WI
BORDER WITHIN RATHER NARROW FGEN BAND AS WELL AS SOME HEAVIER SN
REPORTS JUST S OF THE WI BORDER THAT ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE HIER
QPF SHOWN BY THE VARIOUS HI RES MODELS...OPTED TO ISSUE ADVY FOR
IRON...DICKINSON AND DELTA COUNTIES FOR AS MUCH AS 4 TO PERHAPS 5
INCHES. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE STEADIER SN WL DIMINSH BY MID MRNG WITH
PASSAGE OF DISTURBANCE TO THE E.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A CONFLUENT W FLOW
OVER THE UPR LKS BTWN ARCTIC BRANCH CLOSED LO OVER NRN QUEBEC AND
POLAR/SUBTROPICAL BRANCH UPR RDG IN THE NRN PLAINS. THERE IS A SHARP
H85 WARM FNT ORIENTED W-E ACRS THE UPR MIDWEST SEPARATING THE VERY
COLD AIR OVER ONTARIO...WHERE THE 00Z H85 TEMP WAS -16C AT YPL FROM
MUCH WARMER AIR IN THE CENTRAL CONUS...WHERE THE 00Z H85 TEMP WAS 9C
AT OMAHA. A RATHER NARROW W-E BAND OF SN IN THE GENERAL ISENTROPIC
ASCENT N OF THE WARM FNT AND UNDER SOME UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF 120KT H3
JET MAX IN SE CANADA IS ORIENTED FM CENTRAL MN ACRS NRN WI INTO MNM
COUNTY EARLY THIS MRNG ALONG AXIS OF SHARPEST FGEN BEST DEFINED IN
THE H7-6 LYR. BUT OVERALL DRYNESS OF THE LLVL AIRMASS IN THE AREA...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS TO THE N CLOSER TO SFC HI PRES ORIENTED FM SRN
MANITOBA ACRS FAR NRN LK SUP AND INTO SW QUEBEC...IS LIMITING THE
COVERAGE OF THE PCPN TO A FAIRLY NARROW BAND. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
INDICATES INCRSG REFLECTIVITIES IN MN AHEAD OF A SHRTWV MOVING E
THRU THE NRN PLAINS AS INDICATED ON WV IMAGERY.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WL FOCUS ON POPS/SN AMOUNTS
OVER MAINLY THE SRN TIER COUNTIES THIS MRNG ASSOCIATED WITH NARROW
BAND OF SN AND NEEDED HEADLINES.
TODAY...SHRTWV/AREA OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC NOW BRINGING
ENHANCEMENT TO THE PCPN OVER MN AND NRN WI IS FCST TO SLIDE E EARLY
THIS MRNG...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MORE FOCUSED DYNAMIC SUPPORT TO THE
CWA MAINLY TRHU MID MRNG. RECENT RADAR TRENDS SHOWING SOME
INTENSIFICATION OF THE ECHOES IN NW WI SUPPORT SOME OF THE RECENT
HIER RES MODEL FCSTS LIKE THE 00Z NAM OF THE HIER QPF UP TO ABOUT
0.30-0.35 INCH DRIFTING FARTHER TO THE N INTO THE WI BORDER
COUNTIES...A QPF CONSISTENT WITH THE 3 G/KG SPECIFIC HUMIDITY
PRESENT ARND H7. RATHER HI...NARROW DGZ SHOWN ON FCST SDNGS WL NOT
SUPPORT SN/WATER RATIO MUCH HIER THAN 10:1 IN THIS AREA. CONSIDERING
ADDING THESE COUNTIES TO ADVY...BUT POTENTIAL IMPACT OF LLVL DRY AIR
TO THE N THAT MIGHT LOWER THE QPF TO WHAT IS SHOWN ON SOME OF THE
OTHER HI RES MODELS LIKE THE HRRR INDICATE AN SPS FOR UP TO ABOUT 3
INCHES NEAR THE BORDER IN IRON AND DICKINSON COUNTIES AS WELL
AS DELTA COUNTY MIGHT BE A BETTER STATEGY. WL MAINTAIN THE WINTER WX
ADVY FOR MENOMINEE COUNTY. SINCE FCST SDNGS DO NOT SHOW AN ELEVATED
WARM LYR THAT FEATURES TEMPS ABOVE 0C...REMOVED THE MENTION OF MIXED
PCPN THIS MRNG. THE EXTENT OF THE DRY AIR TO THE N WL LIKELY RESULT
IN A SHARPER NRN EDGE OF THE MORE SGNFT PCPN THAN IS SHOWN BY THE
MODELS. ARRIVAL OF QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING SHRTWV BY LATE MRNG WL CAUSE THE SN BAND TO DIMINISH...WITH
LINGERING LGT PCPN OVER THE SCENTRAL TRANSITIONING TO A MIX OF
SN WITH SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT RA AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE MID/UPR 30S.
ARRIVAL OF SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE NRN TIER COUNTIES THIS AFTN WL
END ANY LINGERING PCPN THERE EVEN AS SOME CLDS LINGER.
TNGT...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE HINTS ANOTHER SHRTWV/SOME DYNAMIC SUPPORT
WL PUSH INTO THE AREA FM THE W IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...THE
CONTINUED ARRIVAL OF DRIER LLVL AIR SHOULD LIMIT POPS TO THE
SCENTRAL. TENDED TO CUT POPS FM PREVIOUS FCST ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NRN TIER...WITH NO HIER THAN CHC POPS EVEN NEAR THE WI BORDER.
LINGERING CLDS WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL EVEN WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF LLVL DRIER AIR.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
THE LONG TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A FRUSTRATING EXPERIENCE WHEN
ATTEMPTING TO PIN DOWN THE FINER DETAILS OF THE FORECAST. ESPECIALLY
WITH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
DISTURBANCES AND HAVING THERMAL PROFILES THAT SUPPORT MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND FREEZING RAIN.
THE START OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST HAS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
BETWEEN A HIGH MOVING EAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE WARM FRONT DRAPED
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THIS
WARM FRONT SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH ON TUESDAY...WOULD EXPECT THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION TO STAY SOUTH OF THE CWA...BUT THE AREA
CONTINUES TO SEE WEAK SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND THROUGH THE REGION. WITH THE FLUCTUATIONS
IN THE MODELS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...WILL OPT TO TREND THE
FORECAST IN THE LATEST DIRECTIONS WITH OUT GETTING TOO SPECIFIC.
THEREFORE FOR TUESDAY...THINK THE DRY AIR (BETWEEN 850-750MB)
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO WILL KEEP THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA DRY WHILE THE AREA ALONG THE WISCONSIN
BORDER MAY SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
850-700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION INITIALLY IN THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF THE ICE CRYSTALS CUTTING OUT...OPTED TO KEEP
P-TYPE AS SNOW DUE THE THE AMOUNT OF DRYING OCCURRING IN THE
MORNING. ALTHOUGH THAT DRY AIR IS MOVING IN...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FORCING/MOISTURE WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND 700-600MB TO
SUPPORT CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST 2/3RDS OF THE CWA.
AS THE SURFACE LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES IS SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ANOTHER
STRONGER SHORTWAVE LIFTS EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS STAGE...THINK THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL STAY TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA (TRACKING
THROUGH NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AND INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN). BUT
THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR CHANCES OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE U.P. LOOKING
AT THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...EXPECT MUCH OF THIS PRECIP TO FALL AS
SNOW...BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL WARMING OVER SOUTHERN
MENOMINEE COUNTY TO PARTIALLY MELT THE SNOWFLAKES...LEADING TO SOME
SLEET OR MAYBE EVEN FREEZING RAIN. THAT WAVE QUICKLY DEPARTS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...SO WOULD EXPECT A DRYING
TREND AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE (FROM
THE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST OF JAMES BAY) SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE CWA.
THAT WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THE NEXT WAVE WILL EJECT TOWARDS THE REGION UNDER THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. IN ADDITION TO THE SHORTWAVE...WARM AIR
WILL SURGE NORTH OVER THE REGION...WITH 850-800MB TEMPS WARMING
ABOVE 5C. THUS...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS THROUGH THIS WARM
LAYER WILL MELT AND THE P-TYPE WILL DEPEND ON THE NEAR SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE EXISTING COLD AIR FROM THE DEPARTING
HIGH...WOULD EXPECT PRIMARILY FREEZING RAIN FOR THE START OF THE
EVENT (LOWEST 2KFT ARE BELOW FREEZING)...AS IT DOESN/T LOOK LIKE
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE FOR SLEET. THE
ARRIVAL TIME OF THE PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CRUCIAL FOR THE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FORECAST AS
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH MID
MORNING BEFORE WARMING SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW HIGH CHANCE OR EVEN LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA STARTING VERY
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING THROUGH THURSDAY.
HOPEFULLY...MODELS WILL CLOSE IN ON THE LOCATION OF THE BEST
PRECIPITATION FOR THIS PERIOD...AS IT APPEARS TO BE A DECENT
OPPORTUNITY FOR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE U.P.. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THIS THREAT IN THE HWO AND WITH THE INCREASING CONFIDENCE
START TO PROVIDE A LITTLE MORE DETAIL.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY/SATURDAY...BUT MODELS STILL DIFFERING ON THE DETAILS. WHILE
THE CONSISTENCY IS LACKING...THE LATEST TRENDS WITH THE 00Z MODELS
IS FOR A QUICKER LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WHICH
WOULD ALLOW IT TO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM. THE 00Z ECMWF MADE
A SIGNIFICANT JUMP TOWARDS THE FASTER SOLUTION SEEN IN THE PREVIOUS
GFS RUNS. THAT IS A SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURE FROM THE 12Z ECMWF/GEM
ENSEMBLE MEANS...SO IT WILL BE INTERESTING IF THAT TREND CONTINUES.
OVERALL...FELT A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS WAS REASONABLE FOR
THE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD...WHICH HAS THE NEXT
WAVE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. WITH THE FASTER AND
FARTHER SOUTHEAST TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...A TRANSITION FROM RAIN
OR FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN
ON FRIDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME MEASURABLE ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE
WEST...BUT IT IS STILL WAY TO FAR OUT AND UNCERTAIN TO HAVE AN
INDICATION ON AMOUNTS.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA...SATURDAY COULD SEE SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY. ANOTHER
STRONG SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA ON SATURDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THAT SETS THE
STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE START TO THE NEXT WORK WEEK (RAINY AND POSSIBLY
SOME THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW ON THE
BACKSIDE FOR TUESDAY THE 14TH).
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE LOWER MIDWEST/MID MS VLY REGION MOVES
SLOWLY NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT SOME LIGHT SNOW AND LOWER CIGS WL
BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO UPPER MI...HOWEVER THE DRY NE SFC WIND WILL
KEEP THE HEAVIEST SNOW CONFINED CLOSER TO IRON MOUNTAIN AND
MENOMINEE. THEREFORE...WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO IWD AND SAW
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH LOW END MVFR OR IFR CIGS. DUE TO CMX BEING
FARTHEST FROM THE MOISTURE AND WARM FRONT...EXPECT THAT SITE TO
REMAIN VFR OR HIGH END MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS
THROUGH MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRES RDG BEGINS TO BUILD
BACK IN FROM NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
WITH LAKE SUPERIOR SITUATED BETWEEN A HIGH IN SOUTHERN CANADA AND A
WARM FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...EXPECT EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE TIME...WINDS
WILL BE BELOW 25KTS...BUT FUNNELING DOWN THE WESTERN THIRD OF
LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO 30KTS. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY THERE COULD BE
NORTH-NORTHEAST GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AS IT MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING
FOR MIZ010>013.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
906 AM CDT MON APR 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 AM CDT MON APR 6 2015
DID SOME CLOUD UPDATES TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS...WHICH ARE
SUNNY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 AND MORE CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH.
CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS ALL PCPN OUT OF THE FA SO WILL GO DRY
UNTIL POSSIBLY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH
THESE THIN LITTLE PCPN BANDS IN THIS DRY AIR REGIME. WILL TAKE A
CLOSER LOOK AT TEMPS WITH THE NEXT UPDATE. HIGHS WILL HINGE ON THE
AMOUNT OF SUN TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON APR 6 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO BE PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INITIALIZE WAY TO HIGH WITH PCPN AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE FA. RUC DOING MUCH BETTER SO WILL UTILIZE IN THE NEAR TERM.
OTHERWISE IN LATER PERIODS MODELS FAIRLY CLOSE.
DRY LOW LEVEL NE FLOW CONTINUES TO WIN OUT OVER ANY PCPN. FIRST
BAND OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH 700MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING TRACKING
ACROSS E CENTRAL MN WITHOUT BRINGING ANY MORE THAN A TRACE OF PCPN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA. NEXT BATCH OF RETURNS ACROSS CENTRAL/N
CENTRAL SD NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AND CIGS UNDER RETURNS IN THE MID
LEVELS. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA FEEL IT WILL BE EVEN TOUGHER TO GET ANY PCPN. RUC MAINLY
DRY TODAY AND GFS K295 SURFACE KEEPING ANY LIFT SOUTH OF THE FA.
FOR THIS CONFINED ANY LOW POPS TO ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER AREA.
LOOKS LIKE A BETTER CHANCE FOR PCPN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE E-SE ALLOWING MORE MOISTURE TO SPREAD INTO THE FA. GFS
295K SURFACE LIFTS A BAND OF LOWERING CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH
MODELS IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT INCREASED POPS SOME AS BAND LIFTS
NORTHWARD. NATIONAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SOME POTENTIAL FOR ZR
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FA SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS. THERMAL
ADVECTION FAIRLY NEUTRAL AND WITH CLOUDS TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE DURING THE DAY AND NEAR AVERAGE AT NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON APR 6 2015
ANY LINGERING PCPN SHOULD LIFT NE OF THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT.
NEXT PCPN CHANCES RETURN MIDWEEK AS WESTERN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES FROM
CURRENT TRENDS.
THURSDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF RAIN FROM A WELL ORGANIZED UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM CROSSING THE CENTRAL US. AS A RESULT THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I94 HWY
10 CORRIDOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S THURSDAY AND
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT MON APR 6 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL TAFS SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOME MIXED PCPN SHOULD GET ORGANIZED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH LATER
TONIGHT LIFTING NORTHWARD MAINLY ON TUESDAY. COULD SEE SOME LOWER
CIGS THEN.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
643 AM CDT MON APR 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT MON APR 6 2015
LOOKING LESS AND LESS THAT THE FAR SOUTHERN FA WILL GET ANY PCPN.
CONTINUED TO TRIM POPS THERE THROUGH THE MORNING. NO OTHER CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON APR 6 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO BE PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INITIALIZE WAY TO HIGH WITH PCPN AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE FA. RUC DOING MUCH BETTER SO WILL UTILIZE IN THE NEAR TERM.
OTHERWISE IN LATER PERIODS MODELS FAIRLY CLOSE.
DRY LOW LEVEL NE FLOW CONTINUES TO WIN OUT OVER ANY PCPN. FIRST
BAND OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH 700MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING TRACKING
ACROSS E CENTRAL MN WITHOUT BRINGING ANY MORE THAN A TRACE OF PCPN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA. NEXT BATCH OF RETURNS ACROSS CENTRAL/N
CENTRAL SD NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AND CIGS UNDER RETURNS IN THE MID
LEVELS. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA FEEL IT WILL BE EVEN TOUGHER TO GET ANY PCPN. RUC MAINLY
DRY TODAY AND GFS K295 SURFACE KEEPING ANY LIFT SOUTH OF THE FA.
FOR THIS CONFINED ANY LOW POPS TO ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER AREA.
LOOKS LIKE A BETTER CHANCE FOR PCPN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE E-SE ALLOWING MORE MOISTURE TO SPREAD INTO THE FA. GFS
295K SURFACE LIFTS A BAND OF LOWERING CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH
MODELS IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT INCREASED POPS SOME AS BAND LIFTS
NORTHWARD. NATIONAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SOME POTENTIAL FOR ZR
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FA SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS. THERMAL
ADVECTION FAIRLY NEUTRAL AND WITH CLOUDS TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE DURING THE DAY AND NEAR AVERAGE AT NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON APR 6 2015
ANY LINGERING PCPN SHOULD LIFT NE OF THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT.
NEXT PCPN CHANCES RETURN MIDWEEK AS WESTERN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES FROM
CURRENT TRENDS.
THURSDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF RAIN FROM A WELL ORGANIZED UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM CROSSING THE CENTRAL US. AS A RESULT THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I94 HWY
10 CORRIDOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S THURSDAY AND
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT MON APR 6 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL TAFS SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOME MIXED PCPN SHOULD GET ORGANIZED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH LATER
TONIGHT LIFTING NORTHWARD MAINLY ON TUESDAY. COULD SEE SOME LOWER
CIGS THEN.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1004 AM CDT MON APR 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT MON APR 6 2015
AT 3 AM...A BAND OF RAIN AND SNOW EXTENDED FROM TAMARACK MINNESOTA
EAST SOUTHEAST TO MENOMINEE WISCONSIN. THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION
WAS CO-LOCATED WITH A BAND OF 700 TO 600 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING.
THE 06.00Z MESO AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS FORCING WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO TAYLOR COUNTY THIS MORNING
AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THE PRECIPITATION MAY INITIALLY BE SNOW
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AND THERE IS
A LOSS OF ICE CRYSTALS FROM ALOFT...THE SNOW WILL TRANSITION
QUICKLY TO RAIN. THIS BAND WILL THEN INTENSIFY AND DEEPEN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE FRONTOGENETIC BAND WILL EXTEND
FROM 800 TO 500 MB. SOUNDINGS AT THIS TIME...SHOW VERY LITTLE
ICING FROM ALOFT...THUS...THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIQUID. THIS
MAY PRESENT AN ISSUE IF THE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING. MANY
OF THE MOS GUIDANCES SUGGEST THAT THE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE UPPER 20S IN TAYLOR AND CLARK COUNTIES IN NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. HOWEVER THIS DATA HAS BEEN RUNNING A BIT TOO COLD THE
LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH FOR
FREEZING RAIN. IN ADDITION...THE FROST IS OUT OF THE GROUND...IT
MAKES IT PROBLEMATIC ON WHAT THE EFFECT WILL BE ON ROADS. DUE TO
THIS...OPTED AT THIS TIME TO MENTION FREEZING RAIN...BUT MENTIONED
THE ICING ON ELEVATED SURFACES. THIS WOULD INCLUDE BRIDGES.
MEANWHILE FURTHER SOUTH...A 900 TO 700 MB BAND OF FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 AS A LOW
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL BE WEAK 925 AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO THE REGION. THIS RESULTS IN A SATURATED AIR MASS UP TO 700 MB
CO-LOCATED SOME WEAK OMEGA. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. ONE THING THAT WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED IS THAT THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT A DRY EASTERLY
FLOW MAY INHIBIT THE PRECIPITATION FROM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF WISCONSIN. SINCE THIS IS THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING
THIS AND IT IS A RELATIVELY NEW DEVELOPMENT JUST LEFT THE LOW
LIKELY PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT.
ANOTHER CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT WAS TO TAKE OUT THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THE 06.00Z MODELS
ARE KEEPING THE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS ALOFT AND
THAT THE LOW IS STILL LOCATED WELL OF THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT MON APR 6 2015
ON TUESDAY MORNING...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING THAT THE
DRY EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND THAT THE BEST 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE
AREA. AS A RESULT...THEY HAVE MUCH OF WISCONSIN DRY. MEANWHILE THE
GEM AND NAM HAS THIS DRY AIR MUCH FURTHER NORTH...THUS...THEY ONLY
HAVE THE NORTHERN HALF OF WISCONSIN DRY. SINCE THERE WAS DECENT
CONSISTENCY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...LOWERED THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM LIKELY TO CHANCE. IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES...MAY HAVE TO FURTHER DRY OUT WISCONSIN.
FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAK TO MODERATE
925 MB AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVES INTO THE THE AREA. AS
THIS OCCURS...SOUNDINGS SATURATE QUICKLY ACROSS WISCONSIN...THUS
ALLOWING RAIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...MOST UNSTABLE
CAPES WILL CLIMB UP TO 500 MB ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE 0-6 KM SHEAR IS OVER 60 KNOTS. HOWEVER MUST OF
THIS IS DUE TO THE EAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE. LOOKING AT THE WINDS
ABOVE THIS STABLE LAYER...THE SHEAR IS LESS THAN 30 KNOTS...THUS
NOT CONCERNED WITH ANY SEVERE WEATHER. ANOTHER CONCERN FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT IS THAT THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY BE BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS CLARK AND TAYLOR COUNTIES. WITH THE SOUNDINGS SHOWING
INTRODUCTION OF ICE CRYSTALS FROM ALOFT...MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING RAIN. LIKE TONIGHT...THINKING THAT THE
THE BEST CHANCES OF ICING WILL BE ON ELEVATED SURFACES.
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS SHOW THAT
A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE AREA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE AS FAR NORTH AS THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL AIR IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MOST
UNSTABLE UP TO 1500 J/KG SOUTH OF THIS INTERSTATE. THE 0-6KM SHEAR
CLIMB UP TO 50 KNOTS. MUCH OF THIS SHEAR IS LOCATED BELOW 3 KM...
SO MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING WINDS FROM
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1004 AM CDT MON APR 6 2015
UPDATE FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING A CLEARING SLOT WORKING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
WI. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO DRY EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. RAP MODEL
SHOWS THIS CLEARING TREND A BIT MORE MUDDLED ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AND EYE ON LOW CLOUD TRENDS BASED ON THIS
ANALYSIS. FOR NOW...BACKED OFF ON LOW/MVFR CLOUD COVER AT KLSE AND
WENT VFR THROUGH 01Z THIS EVENING. KEPT MVFR CLOUD COVER AT KRST
WITH CLEARING SIGNAL NOT AS STRONG THERE. LIGHT RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHT RAIN
LIKELY AT BOTH TAF SITES AROUND 00Z. OTHERWISE...APPEARS MVFR
CLOUD WILL TAKE HOLD AGAIN WITH THE ONSET OF THE RAIN...WITH KRST
LOOKING LIKE IT WILL SLIP INTO IFR AFTER 06Z AS THE MOIST LOWER
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
1248 PM CDT MON APR 6 2015
.AVIATION...
A WARM FRONT LIES ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. FOG HAS
BEEN SLOW TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT A BIT
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF THE STATE THIS
EVENING. SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN TONIGHT AND AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MAINLY VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CDT MON APR 6 2015/
DISCUSSION...
EARLY UPDATE LOWERED POP OVER CENTRAL TO WESTERN AR TO
SLIGHT...WHILE KEEPING A CHANCE OVER EASTERN TO SOUTHERN AR.
ATMOSPHERE REMAIN QUITE MOIST AND WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ELEVATED...FOG HAS HELD ON MOST OF THIS MORNING. 12Z KLZK SOUNDING
HAD A PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.37 INCHES...WITH AN ELEVATED SW FLOW
FROM GRADIENT LEVEL TO 10K FEET. MAIN MORNING CONVECTION HAS PUSHED
TO FAR NE AR AND OVER SE AR...WHILE NONE AT THIS TIME CENTRAL TO
WESTERN AREAS. DO SEE A SHORT WAVE IN THE MEAN UPPER FLOW OVER NE TX
TO SE AR...AND THIS WILL MOVE INTO AR LATE MORNING TO AFTERNOON.
SOME FORM OF A WARM FRONT IS SEEN OVER NORTHERN LA TO NE TX TO
CENTRAL OK. CURRENT FLOW SHOULD MOVE THIS NORTHWARD TODAY...BUT HOW
FAR STILL IS IN QUESTION. DO HAVE A BIT MORE POP EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS TIME CAN ONLY GO 30-50% DUE TO A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POTENTIAL
BUT MORE OF AN ISOLATED TREND. SOME INSTABILITY AND SURFACE BASED
CAPE IS SEEN ALONG WITH THE WEAK SHORT WAVE. WILL ADJUST FORECAST TO
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER. LATE MORNING WILL FINE TUNE
CONVECTION CHANCES AS WELL AS TEMPS. TEMPS WILL BE LOWERED A BIT DUE
TO FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HOLDING MUCH LONGER...ESPECIALLY IF THE WARM
FRONT DOES NOT LIFT MUCH NORTHWARD INTO AR. (59)
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT MON APR 6 2015/
AVIATION...
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY VARY BETWEEN IFR
AND MVFR...WITH PATCHY FOG AND LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MAYBE A
BRIEF VFR PERIOD THIS EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
PREVALENT BEFORE DAWN ON TUESDAY...AS MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MOVES INTO THE REGION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT MON APR 6 2015/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
HAVE ALREADY SEEN DEWPOINTS AROUND THE STATE INCREASE CLOSE TO 20
DEGREES IN THE PAST TWENTY FOUR HOURS. MOISTURE CONTINUED TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG DISSIPATING.
WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE STATE TODAY.
FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH THE STATE BY 00Z. A GENERALLY CAPPED
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE IN PLACE AROUND THE STATE ON MONDAY...LIMITING
ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...NAM/ARW/NMM/HRRR MODEL
SOUNDINGS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS DO SUGGEST THE CAP
WOULD ERODE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE
NAM BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN THIS SOLUTION. CONVERSELY...THE GFS
IS A BIT COOLER AND DRIER AT THE SURFACE AND SUGGESTS THE CAP WILL
HOLD TOUGH. CURRENT FORECAST HAS SURFACE TEMPS/DEWPOINTS A BIT
CLOSER TO THE NAM SOLUTION...THEREFORE WILL INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE. 05Z HRRR ALSO BEGINS TO SUGGEST SOME
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR IN SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WITH THE
06Z CONTINUING THIS TREND. IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS THEY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. PORTIONS OF SW ARKANSAS WILL BE
MOST LIKELY TO SEE SE WINDS...INCREASING HELICITY. LCL HEIGHTS ARE A
BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE...BUT STILL LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A TORNADO TO
FORM. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE ISOLATED IN
COVERAGE...AND THERE EXISTS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS.
TUESDAY WILL ALSO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE STATE WITH YET ANOTHER CAPPED ENVIRONMENT
IN PLACE. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER ON TUESDAY...BUT AT
THIS POINT ARE JUST BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLD...BUT WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE OVER ARKANSAS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO COOL ALOFT RESULTING IN THE CAP BEGINNING TO WEAKEN.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL STILL REMAIN
WELL TO THE WEST OF THE STATE...KEEPING BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS. A FEW STORMS COULD HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...BUT THIS WOULD GENERALLY BE ACROSS
EXTREME WESTERN ARKANSAS.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE GOING FORECAST. WHILE THE SMALL DETAILS MAY
VARY A BIT...THE OVERALL PICTURE REMAINS THE SAME. AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY...AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
WITH THE FRONT...SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
COULD BE SEVERE. AT THIS POINT...ALL MODES LOOK POSSIBLE...WITH THE
HIGHEST THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE EXTENT OF
THE THREAT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH THINGS DESTABILIZE OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. ALSO...ANY STRONGER STORMS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
APPROACHING TWO INCHES.
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION AROUND FRIDAY MORNING.
RETAINED SMALL RAIN CHANCES BEHIND THE FRONT...AS THE MODELS TEND TO
PUSH SYSTEMS OUT OF THE REGION A BIT FAST THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
FRONT WILL STALL OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION...BEFORE BACKING TO
THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AROUND SUNDAY...WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING. IT IS LOOKING LIKE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE A POSSIBILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL...AND
FORECAST TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 62 78 64 81 / 20 20 20 20
CAMDEN AR 63 80 65 82 / 20 10 10 10
HARRISON AR 60 78 62 78 / 20 10 30 30
HOT SPRINGS AR 63 79 65 80 / 20 10 10 20
LITTLE ROCK AR 63 80 65 81 / 20 10 10 20
MONTICELLO AR 65 82 66 83 / 20 20 10 10
MOUNT IDA AR 64 78 65 79 / 20 10 10 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 60 80 62 82 / 20 20 30 30
NEWPORT AR 64 79 64 81 / 20 20 20 20
PINE BLUFF AR 64 80 64 83 / 20 10 10 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 61 79 63 81 / 20 10 20 20
SEARCY AR 61 79 61 81 / 20 20 10 20
STUTTGART AR 63 81 64 82 / 20 20 10 20
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...51
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
325 PM MDT MON APR 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON APR 6 2015
...SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING A DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION WITH AN UPPER LOW AND
BROAD TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE THE PAC NORTHWEST COAST THROUGH THE WEST
COAST AND GREAT BASIN REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING AN
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AT THIS TIME.
LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATING A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
THE AREA WITH BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTHWEST WINDS...WARM TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S LOWER ELEVATIONS...50S AND 60S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...DEW PTS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW
ZERO...ALL LEADING TO DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BEING
EXPERIENCED ACROSS ALL OF THE NON SNOW COVERED AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOT TOO FAR AWAY WITH REGIONAL
RADARS INDICATING A FINE LINE FROM NEAR DIA TO BURLINGTON AND INTO
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH DEW PTS IN THE 20S...30S AND 40S NORTH
AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHWESTERN
KANSAS.
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...MODERATE TO STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT PROGGED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GREAT BASIN
EMBEDDED WAVE CONTINUING TO TRANSLATE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO MOVE INTO
THE GREAT BASIN REGION THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. FIRST WAVE LOOKS TO
HELP PUSH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT/FRONT SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PALMER DVD AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SE PLAINS
TONIGHT WITH THE HRRR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE PUSHING MID 40 DEW PTS AND
STRATUS WELL INTO KIOWA AND PROWERS COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY
BE A TAD OVERDONE. FURTHER WEST...WILL LIKELY SEE POOR RH RECOVERY
WITH LOWS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHTS.
THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO MIX OUT THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON TOMORROW AS LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE. THIS ALL POINTS TO
ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH FIRE DANGER...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG THE I-
25 CORRIDOR AND BACK WEST ACROSS THE REST OF THE EASTERN MTS TO THE
CONTDVD. WITH THAT SAID...HAVE UPGRADED AND EXPANDED A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR TOMORROW FROM NOON TO 8 PM FOR ALL OF THE NON SNOW
COVERED MTS...THE HIGH MT VALLEY AND THROUGH THE I-25 CORRIDOR. I
DID NOT INCLUDE THE FAR SE PLAINS WITH MARGINAL WINDS...THOUGH IF
DEEP ENOUGH MIXING CAN OCCUR...COULD SEE RED FLAG CONDITIONS THERE
AS WELL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON APR 6 2015
...DRY AND WINDY WEATHER CONTINUES...
A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS WILL IMPACT OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT
SIX TO TEN DAYS...UNFORTUNATELY NONE OF THEM LOOK VERY ORGANIZED AND
IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE MORE WIND THAN PRECIPITATION FROM THIS
PATTERN. THE ONLY OPTIMISTIC THING THAT CAN BE SAID IS THAT THE
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE PATTERN...SO THERE IS TIME FOR IT TO
CHANGE.
WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A DAY OF POTENTIALLY EXTREME FIRE
WEATHER. WITH INCREASING WRLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL SEE VERY LOW RH OVER
MOST OF THE AREA...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG-GUSTY WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE. HAVE HOISTED A FIRE WX WATCH FOR MOST OF
THE CWA. ONLY AREAS THAT MIGHT ESCAPE ARE THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND
THE CENTRAL MTS. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE FALLING...SO DEPENDING ON THE
SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT THE RH VALUES FOR THE NRN AND CENTRAL MTN
AREAS MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE RED FLAG. BUT IT WILL BE
ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR THE PLAINS. EXTREME NERN
CORNER...BASICALLY KIOWA COUNTY...WILL BE A BIT SLOWER TO MIX OUT
DUE TO SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS...BUT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON MOST
OF THE PLAINS SHOULD BE ON THE BREEZY-WINDY SIDE.
MODELS ARE NOW ALL ON BOARD WITH A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK FOR THE LATE
WED-THU SYSTEM. AS EXPECTED...THE OUTLIER ECMWF HAS FALLEN INTO LINE
WITH THE GFS...AND THE NAM-GFS SOLUTION HAS COME TOGETHER WITH A LOW
THAT TRACKS THROUGH WY. SO...PRECIP CHANCES NOT LOOKING VERY GOOD
FOR US RIGHT NOW. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND CENTRAL
MTS N OF HGWY 50 WILL GET SOME SNOW...PERHAPS A COUPLE INCHES. BUT
ELSEWHERE...HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE LOW POPS AND WILL KEEP THEM SILENT
FOR NOW. TEMPS OVER THE PLAINS ON THU SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER
50S-LOWER 60S.
RIDGING ON FRIDAY SHOULD MITIGATE FIRE WX CONCERNS...AS WINDS DIE
DOWN FOR A DAY OR SO. BUT IT STILL LOOKS DRY...AS DOES SATURDAY WHEN
SWRLY FLOW PICKS UP ONCE AGAIN AND LEADS TO MORE FIRE WX CONCERNS.
NEXT SYSTEM IS STILL BEING HANDLED QUITE DIFFERENTLY BY THE GLOBAL
MODELS. MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING A SPLIT SYSTEM...BUT THE GFS HAS A
WEAKER CUTOFF...AND BROAD DISORGANIZED CUTOFF LOW OVER NRN CO AND WY
BY MONDAY. THE ECMWF HAS A MORE ZONAL PATTERN TO OUR NORTH...BUT
KEEPS THE SRN CUTOFF SYSTEM TOO FAR SOUTH TO IMPACT OUR AREA.
NEITHER 12Z SOLUTION WOULD BRING US MUCH PRECIPITATION...WE JUST CAN
NOT GET A BREAK FROM THIS DISORGANIZED PATTERN! STILL...IT LOOKS
LIKE A CONTINUED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SHOWERS PROBABLE
FOR AT LEAST THE MTN AREAS. ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON APR 6 2015
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT COS...PUB AND ALS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-30KT EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 02Z
TUE WITH SFC WINDS DIMINISHING THEREAFTER WITH LOSS OF SUN AND
MIXING. ALS TO SEE GUSTY SW WINDS AGAIN AFT 16Z TUE WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE PLAINS POSSIBLY
DELAYING THE DEVELOPMENT OF GUSTY SW WINDS AT COS AND PUB UNTIL
18Z-21Z TUE.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ220>237.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ222-224>237.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ220>230-
233.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...MW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
122 PM EDT MON APR 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MUCH OF THIS WEEK. AN
EAST WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SPEND THIS AFTERNOON JUST NORTH
OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY. TO ITS SOUTH TODAY WILL BE MILD AND PARTLY
SUNNY...WHILE CLOUDS...SPOTTY SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER WILL BE
THE RULE TO ITS NORTH. TONIGHT AND TUESDAY IT WILL SAG SOUTH...STALLING
FROM OHIO TO DELMARVA...BEFORE SURGING BACK NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT.
IT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR COOL AND DREARY WEATHER WITH PERIODS
OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...EVEN THOUGH CURRENT RADAR DISPLAYS SHOW LOTS OF
ECHOES TO THE NORTH OF I-90...BASED ON SURFACE REPORTS IT APPEARS
LITTLE IF ANY OF THIS PCPN IS REACHING THE GROUND. WILL CONTINUE
WITH ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THIS REGION FOR TODAY.
THE LATEST HRRR INDICATED THIS ACTIVITY MOVING NORTH AND
DISSIPATING. OTHERWISE MOST AREAS WILL HAVE A DRY DAY WITH PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE FROM I-90 SOUTHWARD BY THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHS TODAY IN MOST AREAS WILL BE IN THE MID OR UPPER 50S.
FURTHER NORTH...WITH MORE CLOUDS AND BETTER CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS...WE HELD HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTHERLY IN MOST AREAS TODAY...5-15 MPH HELPING
TO BRING IN THOSE MILDER TEMPERATURES.
NOT A BAD START TO THE WORKWEEK WEATHERWISE...BUT THE WEATHER LOOKS
UNSETTLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
A DISTURBANCE OVER IOWA WILL HEAD EAST. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER WHICH WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN TUGGING THE FRONT SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF SAMES BAY WILL SLIP A BIT
SOUTHWARD...PUSHING THE FRONT BACK TO THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION BY
TUESDAY MORNING. BY THIS TIME...THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL
BE IN THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL INDUCE
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE THE THREAT OF RAIN OR SHOWERS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.
AS COLD SHALLOW AIR FILTERS IN FIRST TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT...THERE IS
A CHANCE OF A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN OVER THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD TO
ABOUT LAKE GEORGE. WE WILL MONITOR THIS POSSIBILITY AND ISSUE ANY
HEADLINES IF NECESSARY. LOWS WILL BE FREEZING OR A LITTLE LOWER
NORTHERN AREAS...MID TO UPPER 30S JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION INCLUDING SOUTHERN VERMONT...40-45 ALBANY SOUTH.
TUESDAY WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN SLIP SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...BUT CHANCES NORTH. IT LOOKS TO BE AN OVERCAST DAY...RAW
NORTH OF ALBANY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S...TO AROUND 50 IN AND AROUND
ALBANY...LOWER 50S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AT 500HPA HEIGHTS BUILD...AND RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN
USA TO START THIS PERIOD. MEANWHILE AT SFC AND LLVLS COOL SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS S ONT AND QB WITH APPALACHIAN
DAMMING BCMG ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD S TO VA.
WITH CDFNT JUST S OF I70 TUES NT. AT FIRST DRIER COOLER AIR MAY
FILTER INTO N TIER OF FCA WITH HIGH TO OUR N...WHILE CLOUDS AND
SCT -SHRA PERSIST ACROSS S AREASNEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WED MODEST
SFC CLYCGEN ENSUES OFFSHORE BUT THE MAIN FORCING FOR PCPN WILL BE
COOL AIR DAMMED ALONG E SEABOARD AND ITS ASSOC COASTAL FRONTS TO
THE S & E...AND THE MAIN FRONT SHIFTING BACK N WED AND WED NT TO
OUR SW. FOR THE MOST PART THIS PERIOD WILL BE CLOUDY WITH SOME
PERIODS OF LIGHT PCPN...MAINLY RAIN BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME -SN
OVER HIGH TRRN AT NIGHT.
BY THU WITH A RIDGE BUILDING AT 500HPA...A SHORT WV RIDING OVER
THE TOP OF THE 500HPA RIDGE...A DEEPENING 500HPA TROF OVER GRT
PLAINS WITH STRONG CYCLOGENISUS...THE WMFNT WILL SURGE N THRU THE
REGION THU AND THU NT WITH A DISTINCT PERIOD OF RAIN.
QPF AMNTS ARE ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS
AND MOST OF THE SREF/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FOR THIS PERIOD WITH
THE OPERATIONAL GFS PUSHES THE TOTAL TO CLOSE TO 2 INCHES. ITS
CLEARLY AN OUTLIER ON THIS RUN...AND HAS BEEN OVER DOING THE QPF
ON THIS SYSTEM FOR DAYS.
OVERALL A DREARY COOL BUT NOT TOO COOL PERIOD...LOTS OF
CLOUDS...PERIODS OF MAINLY -RN...BEST CHC FOR A WIDESPREAD RN
APPEARS TO BE LATE THU. TEMPS WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DE3G BLO NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S...SOME 50S SOUTH. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
30S...SOME 20S NORTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PER THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS...THIS STRONG WAVE MOVES OUT ONTO
THE PLAINS WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET RESPONSE AND GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE RETURN FOR MORE CLOUDS AND WET CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION
LATER THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. WE WILL KEEP LIKELY
POPS AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA. WHILE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS A LIQUID...WE CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS
OF THE SURFACE HIGH TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH
EXTREME NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
WINTRY MIXTURE WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF I90.
FRIDAY NIGHT THE TRENDS FAVOR A DRY SLOT AS MAIN SURFACE LOW TRACKS
WELL TO OUR WEST AND NORTH AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS
UPSTREAM. SO WE WILL LOWER POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH PORTIONS OF THE
DACKS REMAINING UNDER CHC-SCT POPS. THIS UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY
TRANSVERSES THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WE HAVE FOLLOWED THE
BLENDED APPROACH OFFERED BY WPC WITH A SLIGHT WARMER TREND DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS THROUGH THE WEEK DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND WARM
ADVECTION REGIME.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SKIES CLEARED OUT IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WHICH ALLOWED FOR IFR
CONDITIONS TO EVOLVE RATHER QUICKLY AT KPOU. ELSEWHERE IT APPEARS
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED DUE TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE. AS THE
WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH...FOG AT KPOU WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES FROM MID
MORNING ON.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY BY SUNSET.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING
AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS AND VIS TO ALL TAF SITES EARLY TONIGHT...THEN IFR LATE TONIGHT.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BECOMING
SOUTHERLY THROUGH DAYLIGHT HOURS AT SPEEDS 10KTS OR LESS. TONIGHT
THE WINDS SUBSIDE TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY...EXCEPT NORTHERN AREAS WILL MIGHT SEE A
LITTLE RAINFALL. PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND MINIMUM RH VALUES 35-40
PERCENT CAN BE EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-90...LESS SUNSHINE AND 40-50
PERCENT VALUES NEAR I-90. NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WILL FEATURE
MORE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. RH VALUES WILL BE MORE ELEVATED ONLY DROPPING TO THE 50-60
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
A SOUTH WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH FROM I-90 SOUTH...LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FURTHER NORTH NEAR THE FRONT.
THIS FRONT WILL DRIVE OUR WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IT
LOOKS MORE UNSETTLED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
EXPECTED AND DAMP CONDITIONS. BY FRIDAY...MOST IF NOT ALL PLACES
SHOULD HAVE SEEN OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL. IT LOOKS TO TURN
DRIER BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE MOHAWK RIVER AT THE UTICA HARBOR FOR MINOR
FLOODING REMAINS IN EFFECT...BUT COULD BE DROPPED LATER THIS MORNING.
IT NOW LOOKS MAINLY DRY FROM I-90 SOUTH TODAY...WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR SHOWERS NORTH OF I-90 WITH QPF AMOUNTS GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF
AN INCH. THIS RAIN WILL HAVE NO ADDED IMPACT ON ALREADY SWOLLEN
STREAMS AND RIVERS.
A STALLED OUT FRONT WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE AND MOISTURE INCREASES
NEAR IT...AND SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVE ALONG IT TONIGHT THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS LIQUID
RAIN...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME SLEET...FREEZING RAIN OR EVEN SNOW IN
OUR NORTHERN AREAS AT NIGHT.
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE DIURNAL MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK WITH
TEMPERATURES MOST NIGHTS GETTING COLD ENOUGH SLOW AND EVEN STOP THE
MELT.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH QPF
AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OF LESS EXPECTED. HOWEVER MORE SIGNIFICANT
QPF IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UP TO AN ONE INCH
POSSIBLE. MORE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. THIS RAINFALL COMBINED
WITH RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT WOULD LEAD TO RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. THE METEOROLOGICAL MODEL ENSEMBLE ROVER FORECASTS (MMEFS)
INDICATES THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME RIVER POINTS REACHING
ACTION OR PERHAPS EVEN MINOR FLOOD FLOOD STAGE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH FOR QPF AMOUNTS AND IS EVEN LOWER FOR THE EXPECTED RUNOFF FROM
SNOWMELT. HAVE ADDED MENTION TO OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/GJM
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
106 PM CDT MON APR 6 2015
.UPDATE...
1112 AM CDT
FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS
STILL MAKING SOUTHWARD PROGRESS...BUT IS STILL NORTH OF THE
WISCONSIN BORDER. EXPECT THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTH...REACHING THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
THEN GOING STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IN OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY
ADJUSTMENT TO THE GOING FORECAST HAS BEEN TO LOWER POPS OVER THE
WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE I-39 CORRIDOR BY 23Z SINCE THE AIRMASS IN
PLACE IS STILL VERY DRY AT THE LOWER LEVELS AND TOP DOWN
SATURATION WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO OVERCOME.
KREIN
&&
.SHORT TERM...
354 AM CDT
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
IN THE NEAR TERM...A COMBINATION COLD FRONT/LAKE BREEZE HAS
PUSHED INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN IL TO ABOUT A RFD-DPA-CGX LINE BY
LATE LAST EVENING. COLD AIR IS QUITE SHALLOW HOWEVER...WITH AN
AMDAR AIRCRAFT ASCENT SOUNDING FROM ORD AROUND 03Z SHOWING THE TOP
OF THE INVERSION AT AROUND 1400 FT AGL (13C/55F AT 940 MB).
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 KT ABOVE THIS INVERSION DEPICT THE
LARGER SCALE PATTERN ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WITH BROAD REGION OF
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A SERIES OF RELATIVELY SMALL-AMPLITUDE
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS NOTED UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA IN 00Z RAOB
ANALYSIS. GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS DEEP OPPOSING FLOW WILL CAUSE
FRONT TO STALL OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH EARLY
THIS MORNING. WITHIN THIS REGION OF SOUTHERLY FLOW
HOWEVER...MOISTURE WAS BEGINNING TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AS
NOTED BY LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPANDING NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL IL.
EXTRAPOLATION FROM GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS CLOUDS WILL
EXPAND ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...SUPPORTED BY MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH DEPICT INCREASING RH IN THE 900-800 MB
LAYER. SOME HIGH-RES GUIDANCE MEMBERS (MAINLY THE WPC NMM) DEVELOP
SOME VERY SPOTTY QPF ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS FROM THIS RELATIVELY SHALLOW CLOUD LAYER...THOUGH
THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE ARGUES AGAINST CARRYING ANY MENTIONABLE
POP DURING THE DAY. MUCH GREATER POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS THIS EVENING...AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY EMERGING
FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES APPROACHES. GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE MIXED IN
DENOTING AREA OF GREATEST QPF/PROBABILITY...THOUGH THE BEST
FORCING INITIALLY FOCUSES ON EASTERN IOWA/NORTHWEST IL TOWARD
EVENING WITH THE STRONGEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THETA-E
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 30 KT H8 FLOW RESULTING FROM THE MID-
LEVEL WAVE. THIS FLOW THEN WEAKENS AND VEERS MORE WESTERLY
OVERNIGHT...FOCUSING BETTER PRECIP POTENTIAL EASTWARD ALONG THE
FRONTAL ZONE AND MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA. WRF SOUNDINGS
INDICATE FAIRLY DECENT ELEVATED CAPE (1500+ J/KG) ACROSS THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERN CWA COINCIDENT WITH THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET...DECREASING (200-300 J/KG) FARTHER NORTH. BEYOND MIDNIGHT
SOUNDINGS DEPICT MID-LEVEL DRYING AND CAPPING ABOVE SATURATED
LOWER LEVELS...WITH DECREASING LIFT/ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOCUSED
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST CWA. LIGHTER RAIN/DRIZZLE LIKELY
TO LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH WITHIN WEAK BUT PERSISTENT ASCENT IN
SATURATED LAYER BELOW ABOUT 750 MB.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY IS COMPLICATED BY AFOREMENTIONED
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...AS WELL AS CONSOLIDATION OF
WARM/STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE CWA IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE LOW
ACROSS THE PLAINS. A CONSIDERABLE PORTION OF THE WARM ADVECTION
OCCURS ABOVE OUR MOIST LAYER AND INVERSION THRU THE DAY...AND
WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS TAKE ON AN EASTERLY COMPONENT BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON AS FRONTAL ZONE EVOLVES AND TIGHTENS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. MODEL
THERMAL FIELDS AT 950-925 MB LEVELS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
60S...WITH TEMPS LIKELY TURNING COOLER ALONG THE ILLINOIS SHORE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. SHARPENING OF WEST-EAST FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IN
TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED LARGE NORTH-SOUTH TEMP
GRADIENT...LIKELY FROM THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE IL LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORE TO THE 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA.
LITTLE CHANGE TO THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY... WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING
ACROSS THE SOUTH PART OR JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA AND REMAINING A
FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WITH A SERIES OF MINOR MID-LEVEL WAVES.
THERE IS SOME CONSENSUS IN GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS WITH A MORE
AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE WHICH
APPROACHES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT PRODUCING ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGHER CONFIDENCE RAIN/THUNDER.
THE WEAKENING SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE FRONT SAGGING FARTHER SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL AND INDIANA DURING THE DAY. COOL
TEMPS...CLOUDS AND PERHAPS FOG AND DRIZZLE CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
COOL NORTHEAST WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
422 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID-MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
BY THURSDAY MORNING. WITH THE DEEPENING LOW OVER THE PLAINS...
INCREASING SOUTH FLOW IS INDUCED DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE MIDWEST
WITH ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THIS INCREASES THE
LIKELY HOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. SOME
DIFFERENCES REMAIN AMONGST MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO THE
TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...WITH THE GFS AND GEM NOTABLY
SLOWER AND DEEPER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE ECMWF. IN
ANY CASE...STRONG WARM/MOIST ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THURSDAY.
THURSDAY CONTINUES TO PRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN
THE REGION AHEAD OF STRONG UPPER SYSTEM AND IN VICINITY OF SURFACE
LOW/TRIPLE POINT...ESPECIALLY WITH SLOWER GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS. GIVEN
ENERGETIC APPROACHING TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW...PRESENCE OF
WARM/POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. MUCH OF AREA
REMAINS IN SPC DAY 4 RISK.
EVEN WITH SLOWER GFS/GEM MOVEMENT OF SURFACE LOW...OCCLUDING COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. DRY SLOT THEN SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY
WHILE UPPER TROUGH/LOW SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS WI AND THE
NORTHERN LAKES. THUS PRECIP POTENTIAL LOOKS TO DIMINISH
MARKEDLY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF BRING ANOTHER FAIRLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS LATE IN
THE WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIP/THUNDER LATE SUNDAY OR
SUNDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE DEEP SURFACE LOW TO OUR
WEST. AGAIN DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
DETAILS...THOUGH MUCH OF CWA MAY BE IN THE 70S. COOLER BUT NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...MID 50S TO LOW 60S...WITH
LAKE BREEZE COOLING MAINLY ON SUNDAY.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* LIGHT EAST NORTHEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KT BY MID LATE AFTERNOON.
* SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND FOG TONIGHT.
* MVFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING LOWERING TO IFR TONIGHT...WITH A
PERIOD OF LIFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
PLACE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING WHILE A TREND TOWARDS A
SOUTH SOUTHEAST WIND OCCURS FOR RFD/DPA/GYY AND A TREND TOWARDS AN
EAST NORTHEAST WIND OCCURS FOR ORD/MDW. SPEEDS WILL INITIALLY BE
LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST NORTHEAST BUT WITH AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH AROUND 10 KT EXPECTED BY
21Z. EXPECT THESE SPEEDS TO PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING AND POSSIBLY INCREASING ABOVE 10KT AT TIMES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH SEVERAL MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL HELP WITH PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT AND LOWERING CEILINGS TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE REPLACED WITH MVFR THIS EVENING
AND THEN CONTINUING TO LOWER TO IFR OVERNIGHT. LOWER CONFIDENCE
WITH LIFR CEILINGS AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE TAF AT THIS TIME...BUT
IT DOES APPEAR TO BE POSSIBLE AT LEAST FOR A SHORT WINDOW TONIGHT.
IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH INSTABILITY REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS TONIGHT...DONT EXPECT ANY THUNDER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY BE
OBSERVED.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED/DIRECTION...MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE WITH EXACT TIMING OF EAST NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10
KT THIS AFTERNOON.
* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH SHOWER/FOG TRENDS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS TONIGHT...MEDIUM ON
EXACT TIMING...LOW CONFIDENCE WITH IFR POTENTIAL.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* TUESDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. IFR/LIFR. STRONG/GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...MAINLY DRY. IFR. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHRA/TSRA LIKELY. IFR. EAST WINDS.
* THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SHRA/TSRA. IFR LIKELY. SOUTH
WINDS.
* FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. GUSTY WEST WINDS.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. WEST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
342 AM...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING BUT WILL THEN MOVE BACK SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON...AND SOUTH OF THE LAKE BY THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT
IS THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
LAKE INTO THURSDAY WHEN LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
NORTHEAST/EAST WINDS 15-25 KTS WILL PERSIST THRU THURSDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF 30KTS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF/TWO THIRDS OF THE LAKE. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1250 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 AM CDT MON APR 6 2015
The current forecast is in good condition. A quasi stationary
front still remains over northern Illinois, while a warm front
over the central Plains will affect southern portions of the CWA
tonight into tomorrow morning. Cloud cover will remain over
Illinois for the rest of today, with a few breaks here and there.
Portions of southeast Illinois experienced scattered, light
showers this morning, with light rain reported in Lawrenceville.
Temperatures, winds, sky cover, and precipitation are currently in
check, so will leave the forecast for today as is with only minor
adjustments.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT MON APR 6 2015
Latest surface analysis indicating a stationary front located over
extreme northern Illinois through northern Iowa, which is forecast
to hold to our north until tonight when it will start to edge south
across the forecast area. Meanwhile, our persistent southerly flow
has brought an increase in cloud cover to the forecast area early
this morning along with a few sprinkles being reported to our south
at Mattoon and Salem during the past hour. RAP forecast soundings
showing the depth of the moisture will not be very deep today,
roughly 3000-4000 feet, so any light rain that is able to make it to
the ground will not amount to much. Short term models do indicate a
subtle shortwave tracking east across the forecast area through
early morning which may be enough to shake out some light rain from
time to time, especially across the south and east. Had low chance
POPs going in the east and see no reason to change that, with the
better chances for showers and thunderstorms arriving by late this
afternoon across the far northwest. RAP and HRRR models also forecast
surface dew points to increase to around 50 degrees over the south
half of the area by later today, compared with upper teens to low 20
dew points this past weekend.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT MON APR 6 2015
NWP models continue to show an active weather pattern from tonight
through Thursday night, with periodic rain chances. Potential for
storms will initially be limited to mainly our western counties
tonight, with the SPC marginal risk area covering west of Rushville
to Taylorville. The best chance of strong to severe storms still
looks to be Thursday afternoon/eve with the arrival of a stronger
shortwave and cold front.
A stationary front across northern Illinois will be the focus for
showers to develop tonight, once moisture levels increase and
frontogenetic forcing intensifies. The front is expected to drift
southward into central IL tonight, stalling out again roughly along
I-72 from Tuesday through Wednesday night.
Weakening low pressure will progress into western Illinois Tuesday
afternoon, with an increase of F-gen forcing and instability across
our central and northern counties. However, better potential for
strong storms will remain west of IL. Forcing for storms Wed
afternoon appears tied to shortwaves tracking over the top of low
level F-gen forcing, but severe potential appears low again late Wed
and Wed night.
While the models are indicating QPF amounts in every period this
week, there will be extended breaks in the rainfall in the wake of
individual waves that progress eastward along the frontal boundary.
Despite continued model differences in timing, we tried to highlight
the periods with the best chances for precip with likely or higher
PoPs. Right now, that includes tonight into Tuesday mainly in the
north, Wed night in the south, Thurs in the west, and Thur night in
the east.
A more substantial low along the Pacific coast will push east into
the Rockies on Wednesday, reaching northern IL Thursday night.
Impacts from that system will be felt in our area as early as Wed
night, especially closer to the front in our southern counties.
Severe potential will ramp up on Thursday afternoon as a surface low
pressure center approaches NW IL and a cold front reaches western
IL. That front will progress across IL Thur night, with support
aloft from an intensifying jet streak. Wind shear and instability
params appear favorable for rotating storms with large hail,
damaging winds and even a few tornadoes. At this point, model
consensus points toward storms affecting areas W of I-55 Thur aftn,
and east of I-55 Thurs evening.
A few showers could linger Friday morning east of I-57, but most
areas should be dry on Friday. That break from rain/storms is
expected to continue into the weekend, under surface high pressure.
The next weather disturbance could arrive later Sunday afternoon, as
the upper flow remains relatively zonal. More significant pattern
differences in the extended models are keeping confidence low on
timing, so will keep chance PoPs confined to our far western
counties Sunday for now.
Temperatures through the week will be closely tied to the
oscillation of the stationary front south then north through central
IL. We kept temps well above guidance in the southern counties until
the cold frontal passage Thursday night, while northern areas were
kept closer to normal temps after the front drifts south toward I-72
for Tuesday to Thursday. Thursday looks to be the warmest day of the
week, with cooler conditions from Friday through Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT MON APR 6 2015
Main issue with the beginning of the TAF period is the fluctuating
CIGs between VFR and MVFR. For PIA and BMI, have CIGs at VFR to
begin the TAF period, while SPI, DEC, and CMI have MVFR. A
quasi stationary front will move back and forth across northern
Illinois into portions of central Illinois. This front will be the
focus for some thunderstorm and shower development later this
afternoon into the evening, so have included showers with VCTS
for all TAF sites around 03Z/04Z. A warm front will also be
lifting northward towards SPI, DEC, and CMI overnight into the
very early morning hours, which may produce some stronger
thunderstorms overnight. CIG heights will decrease to IFR overnight as
sounding profiles saturate towards the surface and as the fronts
move near the terminals. Currently have IFR CIGs becoming MVFR,
and becoming scattered further west over PIA and SPI by late
tomorrow morning, with broken CIGs over the remainder of the
sites towards the end of the TAF period.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ALW
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...ALW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
102 PM EDT MON APR 6 2015
.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT
LAKES THIS WEEK...SERVING AS A FOCAL POINT FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WAVES RIPPLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND THROUGH THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOR SATURDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS A RETURN TO MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR
THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 939 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH MOST OF THEM ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. HRRR INDICATES A FEW
MORE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST. CURRENT FORECAST
REFLECTS THESE WELL SO ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AS WELL.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS GRADUALLY BEING
GOBBLED UP BY THE AMBIENT DRY AIRMASS PRESENT OVER THE REGION AS
THEY MOVE NORTHEAST. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S AS
OF 07Z...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA HAD SLIPPED INTO THE UPPER 30S.
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK QUICKLY EXPANDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND
WILL ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE REGION PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. AS MENTIONED...
INITIAL BATCH OF LIGHT SHOWERS ARE DIMINISHING AS THEY MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE DRY AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S. STILL
THOUGH THIS INITIAL BATCH OF MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTENING PROCESS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER WAVE WILL PASS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
DEEPENING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HOWEVER WILL WARRANT A CONTINUED LOW
CHANCE POPS WITH HI-RES WRF/HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WITH
THAT BEING SAID...IT WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS WITH
EXTENDED PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER. WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
EXPAND NORTH INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
PUSH OF WARM ADVECTION AND WILL MAINTAIN AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPS...THICK STRATUS DEVELOPING DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND
SCATTERED PRECIP WILL SERVE TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN A BIT DESPITE
INCREASING WARM ADVECTION. REALLY HARD TO ARGUE WITH MOS GUIDANCE
WHICH SUPPORTS HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE SHORT
TERM ALONG WITH TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
UNCERTAINTIES ON PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION.
ACTIVE PATTERN SETTING UP THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH CLASSIC SIGNS FOR A
WET UNSETTLED SPRING REGIME FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. BROAD UPPER TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN U S WITH RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL PRODUCE A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT WILL ADVECT
PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS. AT THE
SURFACE...SETUP IS IDEAL FOR A PROLONGED RICH GULF MOISTURE FETCH
INTO THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST AND PERSISTENT
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS PIECES OF ENERGY ALOFT KICK
OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH. SEVERAL WAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT OSCILLATES OVER THE REGION FOR THE DURATION OF THE
SHORT TERM.
WHILE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND TIMING OF THE WAVES VARY SLIGHTLY
BETWEEN SPECIFIC MODELS...CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR EVERY
FORECAST PERIOD. FIRST UPPER WAVE SET TO ARRIVE OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT AS A 45KT 850MB JET NOSES INTO THE REGION. AMPLE FORCING
ALOFT AND INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
EXPANSION FROM LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LOCATION OF THE WARM
FRONT OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA SHOULD SERVE AS AN ADDITIONAL
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...PRIMARILY FOCUSED AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY AS SUBTLE RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE. WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES WITHIN A MOIST AND
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING THAT CAN
DEVELOP WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH CONVECTION CAN GET GOING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT PRESENCE OF THE INSTABILITY AND WARM FRONT ALONE
SUPPORTS MENTION OF SCATTERED CONVECTION. PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS WITH SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING LIKELY TO BE DIFFICULT.
LACK OF MORE APPRECIABLE FORCING ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT MORE ROBUST
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT STRONGER STORMS ARE CERTAINLY A
POSSIBILITY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING FAIR AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE
-30 TO -10C LAYER SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER CELLS TO PRODUCE
HAIL.
AS SURFACE WAVE APPROACHES TUESDAY EVENING...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN RAMP UP WITH LIKELY POPS WARRANTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. ONCE AGAIN...MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL
DEPART BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT RETURNS. SCATTERED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. STILL HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY
COMES INTO THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH VASTLY DIFFERENT
WEATHER DEPENDING ON WHICH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY ONE SITS. NORTH OF
THE FRONT...NORTHEAST WINDS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP IT
DAMP AND COOL. SOUTH OF THE FRONT HOWEVER...COULD MAKE A SOLID
ARGUMENT THAT WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE FIRST TRULY WARM HUMID DAY OF
THE SPRING...ESPECIALLY IF THE SUN CAN COME OUT FOR ANY LENGTH OF
TIME. RIGHT NOW...SUSPECT THE BOUNDARY DOES NOT GET ANY FURTHER
SOUTH THAN I-70 BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTING OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY
AS DIFFLUENCE ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION AND DEEPER MOISTURE
WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES ADVECT IN.
TEMPS...UNDERCUT HIGHS SLIGHTLY FROM GUIDANCE TUESDAY WITH CLOUD
COVER LINGERING. STILL THINK MUCH OF THE AREA WILL GET INTO THE
LOWER 70S. TEMP FORECAST WEDNESDAY MUCH TRICKIER AND COMPLETELY
DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT. UNDERCUT MOS BY SEVERAL
DEGREES OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH
WARMER THAN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTH OF I-70 HOWEVER...LOW TO MID 70S
LOOK ACHIEVABLE WITH POTENTIAL TO GO EVEN WARMER SHOULD MORE
SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING TAKE PLACE. LEANED TOWARDS MOS FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION WAS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHTS
OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE WENT COOLER THAN MAVMOS DUE TO FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOCATION.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
ENSEMBLES INDICATE AN ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD. A MEAN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES LATE THIS WEEK...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER LONG
WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS BY NEXT SUNDAY.
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS SURFACE
SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.
PROGGED PRECIPITABLE WATERS OFF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY...SO HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE. THIS SYSTEM
MAY BE QUITE DYNAMIC AS WELL...WITH SOME OF THE OPERATIONAL MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AN ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL JET AROUND 80 KTS.
APPEARS THE SURFACE FRONT WILL GET ENOUGH OF A SHOVE EAST TO END THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT BY SATURDAY.
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE PRECIPITATION THREAT MAY MOVE BACK INTO THE
AREA AS EARLY AS NEXT SUNDAY IN THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN THAT
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF NEXT PLAINS TROUGH. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
NEXT SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 061800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 102 PM EDT MON APR 6 2015
FLIGHT CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AND TO IFR OR LIFR
BY LATE EVENING ON...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT BY MIDDAY TUESDAY.
A WARM/MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN CEILINGS GRADUALLY
FALLING THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE
SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS BY MIDNIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS TO OUR SOUTH. MODELS INDICATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
LATER TONIGHT AND WILL ADD VCTS TO TAF SITES AS WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE.
ON TUESDAY EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
MORNING. MODELS HINT AT A POSSIBLE LULL IN CONVECTION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MIDDAY ON.
SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS WILL BECOME SOUTH 8 KNOTS
OR LESS TONIGHT AND SOUTHWEST UP TO 12 KNOTS BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/50
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JH
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
404 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 359 PM CDT MON APR 6 2015
An amplified upper level trough off the northern CA coast will
slowly dig east-southeast across CA into western NV by late Monday
Afternoon. The southwesterly mid and upper level flow across the
plains will increase through the period with 45 to 50kt 500 mb winds
moving northeast across the state of KS by late Tuesday afternoon.
Tonight, southerly low-level winds will begin to advect deep Gulf
moisture north-northeast across the CWA. The ARW, RUC and NAM models
all show isentropic lift at the 300K level increasing across
northeast KS towards 6Z. The resulting lift may cause elevated
thunderstorms to develop, especially north of I-70 and east of a
Manhattan to Marysville line. The EML over spreading the area Today
will allow for steep lapse rates. The NAM and ARW models show
MUCAPES of 3,000 to 4,000 J/KG and Effective shear of 30 to 40 KTS
above the inversion across portions of east central and northeast KS
from 3Z to 9Z. Therefore some of the elevated thunderstorms may
produce large hail, especially if any of the elevated storms can
rotate at mid-levels. The elevated thunderstorms should move
northeast into IA and northern MO by 12Z.
Tuesday, a surface front will move southward across the CWA through
the day. The northern counties of the CWA may remain cloudy north
of the front. As the front moves southeastward into northeast and
east central KS, the front will encounter deeper gulf moisture and
the surface convergence will increase along the front through the
Afternoon hours. The NAM and ARW show a dryline punch advecting
northeast from south central KS towards EMP. The NAM forecast
soundings show the CAP at EMP nearly removed as temperatures will
warm into the mid 80s ahead the cold front across southern Lyon
county. The NAM model develops QPF across Osage county along the
front between 21 and 24Z TUE, while the ARW shows QPF developing
across Jefferson county ahead of the surface front. Since there is a
chance for the CAP to break along the front late Tuesday Afternoon,
I have inserted an area of isolated thunderstorms along and just
north of the boundary. If surface based storms develop along the
front across east central KS they will most likely become severe.
Most models show between 3,000 and 4,500 J/KG MLCAPE developing in
the warm sector ahead of the front across east central KS. The
effective shear between the surface and 500mb will be around 45
KTS, which given the high MLCAPE would favor supercell
thunderstorms that would produce large hail and damaging wind
gusts. The 850mb winds will veer to the southwest through the day,
thus the low-level vertical wind shear will not be favorable for
tornadoes, unless a storm moves along the boundary and the updraft
does not become undercut, then there may be a chance for a
supercell to produce a tornado. There is s chance that the CAP may
hold Tuesday Afternoon and the front may move through the CWA dry.
Highs will vary from the lower to mid 80s across east central KS
to the mid 60s across north central KS.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 359 PM CDT MON APR 6 2015
An active weather pattern is expected for the middle part of this
week with periods of strong to severe thunderstorms likely.
By Tuesday night, a mid-level trough will be digging southward
across the far western U.S. before becoming positively tilted as it
advances towards the Rockies on Wed. At the surface, low pressure
will be centered near the Oklahoma panhandle with an associated cold
front extending into east central Kansas by the late afternoon and
evening hours on Tue. There still are some model discrepancies with
the exact placement of this boundary, but more models have been
trending toward the cap eroding away significantly enough during the
afternoon hours to support the potential for some isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorm development late afternoon through early
evening hours before becoming elevated by mid/late evening. If the
cap is in fact able to weaken, then models suggest significant
instability with surface-based CAPE of values upwards of around
2500-3500J/kg and 0-6km bulk shear of 35-45kts. Any storms that
develop will likely be supercells and the primary threats will be
large hail and damaging winds. Have added a mention of slight chance
PoPs for scattered thunderstorms for the entire CWA overnight into
Wed. morning as models show increasing isentropic lift. As a result,
could see scattered elevated storms into Wed. morning.
The best chance for severe storms will be on Wed. as the front
gradually lifts northward across the area as a warm front. There are
still some model discrepancies with regards to how far north the
warm front will track across the area, which will have a significant
impact on temperatures. It looks to be a strong enough boundary that
a decent temperature gradient should set up somewhere north of I-70,
with highs ranging from the middle 60s to near 80 degrees from
northwest to southeast. With much of the southeastern half of the
forecast area expected to be in the warm sector through the day,
breezy southerly winds will support warm-air advection into east
central Kansas and also lead to decent moisture advection as
dewpoints look to rise into the 60s. The dryline looks to extend
into central/south central Kansas Wed. afternoon and south central
Kansas may be the initiation point for isolated to scattered
supercell thunderstorm development as the triple-point should be
located near or just north of the Wichita area. With the warm front
only pivoting slightly over the area into Wednesday evening and with
an increasing southwesterly low-level jet nearly parallel to the
boundary, expect storms to track northeastward along the boundary.
The cap looks to significantly weaken during the afternoon hours and
conditions will be prime for strong to severe supercell thunderstorm
development as CAPE values reach 3000-3500J/kg, 40-50kts of 0-6km shear,
and 150-250m2/s2 of 0-1km helicity. With these healthy conditions in
place, expect isolated to scattered supercells with large hail,
damaging winds, and some tornadoes possible. This will be a day that
we want to continue to keep a very close eye on.
Expect thunderstorms to continue through the overnight hours into
Thursday morning, but soundings show that this activity should
become elevated. By Thursday morning, models show the mid-level
trough moving into the Central Plains and will pivot from being
positively-tilted to negatively-tilted. This pivot in the tilt will
allow the trough to more quickly push the low pressure system and
associated cold front eastward out of the area and, thus, have
continued to trend with a faster exit of precipitation out of the
area with dry conditions by Thursday night. With this faster exit of
the cold front, the severe potential for Thursday afternoon/evening
should remain to the east across Missouri. Depending upon the timing
of the frontal passage, could see Thursday high temperatures ranging
from the low 60s to low 70s.
Friday afternoon through Saturday look to remain dry for the most
part with surface high pressure in control. Although a passing
shower could occur Saturday during the day, it looks like the chance
is very small with minimal moisture to work with. Saturday night
will set the stage for possibly a more active Sunday as moisture
advection will be underway as a low pressure trough further develops
over the Southern Rockies and begins to eject into the Southern and
Central Plains on Sunday morning. The best chance for thunderstorms
will be in the afternoon Sunday likely being the best near peak
heating as further destabilization of the boundary layer takes
shape. Timing on this event and any severe potential is uncertain
at this point as shear profiles and a few other key parameters don`t
seem to be overly impressive. As the overall system is progged to
be a bit slow moving, some showers could linger into Monday morning
as well.
Temperatures look to remain in mid 60s to 70s for highs and low
temperatures only reaching into the 40s and low 50s which is close to
normal for this time of year.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT MON APR 6 2015
The MVFR stratus that is in place over all terminals has been
dissipating more slowly than expected from the west. MHK may be
very close to where the stratus deck and clear skies meet later
this afternoon, but for now have kept them at MVFR based on
forecast soundings. Tonight, IFR cigs and visbys are expected
again accompanied by light drizzle. LIFR conditions overnight are
possible, but due to uncertainty in timing have kept them out of
this TAF package.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Drake/Hennecke
AVIATION...Heller
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
152 PM EDT MON APR 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1100 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE CWA. THIS HAS MEASURED AT SOME OF THE
MESONET SITES NEAR THE TN BORDER AND AT KEKQ. THIS IS WEAKENING AS
IT MOVES FURTHER EAST INTO THE DRIER AIR AND IS TURNING MORE INTO
VIRGA OR SPRINKLES...BUT WILL GRADUALLY HELP TO SATURATE THE LOWER
LEVELS FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE BASED ON
RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR
SUGGESTING SOME ISOLATED MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH GENERALLY VIRGA AND
SPRINKLES. IN ADDITION...THERE HAVE BEEN SOME BREAKS OR THIN SPOTS
IN THE MID LEVEL DECK WHICH HAS ALLOWED SEVERAL LOCATIONS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 75 TO ALREADY RISE INTO THE 60S...IN SOME CASES THE MID
AND UPPER 60S. IN THOSE AREAS...TEMPERATURES WERE NEARING THE
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST MAX T. THIS COMBINED WITH THE SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VA WILL
LEAD TO SEVERAL PLACES REACHING THE LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON.
ATTM...WE EXPECT THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
NOW OVER WESTERN TN...SE MO AND NE AR TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA AND TN VALLEY REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ON THE LEADING EDGE OR QUASI DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
UPDATED GRIDS AND ZFP HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
A SHALLOW SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTH...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...HAVE LED
TO A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. OUR NEXT
CONCERN IS NOW ANOTHER SUBTLE SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING
OVER THE TEXARKANA REGION...WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS IT
SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY...REACHING JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA BY 6Z TUESDAY.
AS THIS SHORTWAVE NEARS...EXPECT MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO BUILD...AND
EVENTUALLY PRECIP TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. MODELS CONTINUE
TO AGREE ON SLOWING DOWN THE TIMING OF ONSET...WITH QPF NOW LIKELY
TO REACH THE SW EXTENT OF THE CWA AFTER 12Z. IN FACT...THE LATEST
NAM12 AND HRRR HOLDS IT OFF EVEN LONGER...CLOSER TO 18Z.
HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME LIGHT RETURNS ALREADY SHOWING UP ON RADAR
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KY AND PORTIONS OF TN...EXPECT THAT ALL WE NEED
IS SOME DAYLIGHT AND HEATING TO GET THINGS GOING HERE. THE SAME
WILL GO WITH OVERNIGHT...WHEN WE LOSE SOME OF OUR DIURNAL HEATING.
EXPECT THE OVERALL COVERAGE TO GO DOWN BRIEFLY...UNTIL A WARM
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE CLOSE IN CLOSER ON
KY BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS TO START UP ONCE MORE...EVEN BEFORE WE
RECEIVE THE INFLUENCE FROM DAYTIME HEATING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY.
WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR POPS AND TIMING...LOWERING THEM
SLIGHTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT FOR THE ABOVE
MENTIONED LOSS OF FORCING. UNFORTUNATELY...IN THIS TYPE OF SET
UP...GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT AND UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL ENSURE
PRECIP WILL OCCUR...BUT THE EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS
PRECIP IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...AND DIFFERS FROM MODEL TO
MODEL. GIVEN THE LATEST NAM12 FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY...SO
KEPT WITH ONLY RAIN CHANCES UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON WHEN NEAR SURFACE
TEMPS ARE ABLE TO WARM ENOUGH TO INCREASE THE LAPSE RATES. THE
BEST INSTABILITY WILL ACTUALLY BE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE
COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH SINKS SOUTHWARD AND NEARS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 510 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL AGREE THAT A GRADUALLY
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE UNITED STATES INTO FRIDAY. THROUGH THIS RIDGE A STREAM OF
LOOSE ENERGY PACKETS WILL CROSS OVER KENTUCKY. THIS PROCESS WILL
BE JOINED BY THE ARRIVAL OF A DEEPER TROUGH MOVING EAST THROUGH
THE PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS BRINGS HEIGHT FALLS AND A
MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF ENERGY TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY
EVENING. THE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS WILL LIFT INTO THE GREAT
LAKES THAT NIGHT WITH A RESURGENCE TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE ECMWF
ON SATURDAY DRAGGING MORE ENERGY SOUTH AND INTO KENTUCKY BEFORE
DEPARTING LATER THAT NIGHT. RISING HEIGHTS WILL FOLLOW FOR THE
AREA. THE GFS DOES NOT HAVE THIS RESURGENCE IN ITS SOLUTION SO
THIS DISCREPANCY LOWERS CONFIDENCE FOR THE LATTER PARTS OF THE
EXTENDED...NEVERTHELESS A GENERAL MODEL BLEND WAS FAVORED FOR
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A WARM...WET...AND ACTIVE WEEK FOR
KENTUCKY AS THE STATE WILL BE BELOW A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
RUNNING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FOR MUCH OF THE TIME. VARIOUS
UPPER WAVES AND SFC REFLECTIONS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL KEEP A
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE RISK OF ORGANIZED AND MORE
THREATENING STORMS DEVELOPS LATER THURSDAY AND CONTINUES INTO
FRIDAY DUE TO THE HEIGHT FALLS AND MORE IMPRESSIVE ENERGY STREAM
TARGETING THE REGION...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST. THE MAIN SFC LOW
LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH THE AREA FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. GIVEN THE OPEN GULF AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE...MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINS WILL BE A THREAT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. DRIER
WEATHER DOES FOLLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL ALSO BRING MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO THE STATE FOLLOWING A WEEK OF ABOVE
NORMAL WARMTH...WHERE SOME LOW 80S WILL LIKELY BE SEEN...DESPITE
THE OCCASIONAL RAIN.
THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN REASONABLY WELL WITH JUST SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO POPS TO BETTER REFLECT A DIURNAL TREND. ALSO
MADE SOME TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS EACH NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT MON APR 6 2015
THERE ARE A FEW LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS THAT ARE EXITING KY TO
THE EAST. BACK TO THE WEST...A LARGER AREA OF RAIN IS STARTING TO
MOVE INTO CENTRAL KY AND IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN KY BY
LATER THIS EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXACT TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS WHEN OR
IF THEY WILL IMPACT A SPECIFIC TAF SITE...IS STILL UNCERTAIN. SO
HAVE GENERALLY LOWERED CIGS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS...EVENTUALLY REACHING MVFR STATUS...AS RAIN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIALLY MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA AND HELPS
SATURATE THE COLUMN. VIS IS ALSO LIKELY TO BE RESTRICTED DURING
ANY RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE SHOWERS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JVM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1206 PM CDT MON APR 6 2015
.AVIATION...
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING 07/18Z...EXPECTING A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
TO VSBYS AND CIGS...FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER VFR BY 07/00Z. ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WILL ALSO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z. WITH A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS TEXAS...EXPECT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND ACROSS
NORTHEAST TEXAS AROUND 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS BTWN 20 AND
25 KTS. THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE SOME AFTER 00Z... REMAINING IN THE
10 TO 15 KT RANGE OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING
AFTER 14Z. THE VFR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING...BUT
AFTER 06Z...EXPECT THE RETURN OF MVFR CIGS... WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
16Z TUESDAY MORNING. /14/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT MON APR 6 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SHWRS CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWRD ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRANSITIONING EAST FROM
TX INTO AR/LA. IN ADDITION...A WARM FRONT HAS SHIFTED NORTH OF THE
REGION LEAVING A VERY MOIST AND NOTICEABLY MUGGY AIR MASS IN
PLACE. ABUNDANT CLOUDS HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES DOWN QUITE A BIT BUT
THERE ARE SIGNS OF CLOUDS BEGINNING TO BREAK OVER PARTS OF E CNTRL
TX. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON FARTHER EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION. SO FOR THIS MORNINGS UPDATE...RAISED POPS INTO
THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND THEN
DROPPED TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLD THUNDER
POSSIBLE IN THIS WARMER AIR MASS. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL TREND WILL
BE FOR DECREASING RAIN CHANCES LATER IN THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SHIFTS OUT OF OUR REGION. OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE TO AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLOUD COVER
AND SCATTERED CONVECTION. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.
/19/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT MON APR 6 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION IS MOVING ACROSS CNTRL TX THIS MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE IN THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT.
MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS WAY TOO WET...DEPICTING QUITE A BIT
OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA ALREADY THAT IS NOT PRESENT..AND DID NOT
PICK UP ON THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER CNTRL TX. HRRR SEEMS TO
HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT CONDITIONS AND BRINGS THE
WEAKENING CLUSTER INTO OUR NW ZONES...LIKELY ALONG OR JUST SOUTH
OF I-30...TODAY BUT APPEARS TO BE TO FAST. 06Z NAM HAS THE
CLUSTER AND SEEMS TO HANDLE TIMING WELL BUT DISSIPATES THE
CONVECTION REACH OUR AREA. HAVE COMPROMISED BY GOING SLIGHT CHANCE
AREAWIDE THIS MORNING FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND THEN TRIMMING THE
POPS BACK SLIGHTLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY REMNANTS
OF THE TX CONVECTION. PRECIP SHOULD END BY SUNSET THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE DIFFICULT. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER MAY REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO BREAK LATE BUT
QUICK WARMING SHOULD OCCUR IF THE CLOUDS TO SCATTER. BEST CHANCES
FOR SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BE SOUTH OF I-20.
THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE PAC NW COAST SHOULD BE MOVING
ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SFC...A LEE TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT SHOULD ORGANIZE AND MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA. LARGE
SCALE ASCENT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH MAY LEAD TO SOME CONVECTION
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-30 BY LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. BEST
DYNAMICS FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE NORTH OF OUR AREA AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW TRACK ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH
KS/IA. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD STILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME SEVERE TSTMS THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH THE GULF COAST BEFORE STALLING BRIEFLY
AND MOVING BACK NWD AS A WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
RAIN IN THE FORECAST PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF I-20. 00Z
GFS/ECMWF...WHILE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS PARTICULAR
RUN...ARE VERY INCONSISTENT ON A RUN-TO-RUN BASIS REGARDING
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE REGION
DURING DAY 7-8 TIME FRAME FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE DETAILS REMAIN SKETCHY...IT APPEARS MORE
UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER IS ON THE WAY. /09/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 79 64 83 65 / 30 10 10 10
MLU 78 65 84 65 / 30 10 10 10
DEQ 74 62 78 62 / 30 10 10 10
TXK 76 63 81 63 / 30 10 10 10
ELD 76 63 80 64 / 30 10 10 10
TYR 80 64 82 65 / 30 10 10 10
GGG 79 64 82 65 / 30 10 10 10
LFK 82 65 83 67 / 30 10 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1123 AM CDT MON APR 6 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SHWRS CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWRD ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRANSITIONING EAST FROM
TX INTO AR/LA. IN ADDITION...A WARM FRONT HAS SHIFTED NORTH OF THE
REGION LEAVING A VERY MOIST AND NOTICEABLY MUGGY AIR MASS IN
PLACE. ABUNDANT CLOUDS HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES DOWN QUITE A BIT BUT
THERE ARE SIGNS OF CLOUDS BEGINNING TO BREAK OVER PARTS OF E CNTRL
TX. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON FARTHER EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION. SO FOR THIS MORNINGS UPDATE...RAISED POPS INTO
THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND THEN
DROPPED TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLD THUNDER
POSSIBLE IN THIS WARMER AIR MASS. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL TREND WILL
BE FOR DECREASING RAIN CHANCES LATER IN THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SHIFTS OUT OF OUR REGION. OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE TO AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLOUD COVER
AND SCATTERED CONVECTION. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.
/19/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 AM CDT MON APR 6 2015/
AVIATION...
DEALING WITH MOSTLY LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS RANGING FROM JUST
BELOW ONE MILE TO MVFR VSBYS EARLY THIS MORNING. SFC WINDS HAVE
VEERED AROUND TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THIS MORNING AND
WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WINDS HAVE STAYED UP JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP VSBYS FROM
BECOMING TOO RESTRICTED AND TOO WIDESPREAD.
FOR THE MORNING...WILL SHOW A SLOW BUT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO
VSBYS AND CEILINGS WITH SOME PARTIAL SCATTERING OUT OF THE LOW
CLOUD COVER BY AFTN.
GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE WEST
TODAY...HAVE SHOWN SOME HIGHER GUSTS AT OR NEAR 20KTS OR SO ACROSS
OUR NE TX TERMINAL LOCATIONS.
SHOULD HAVE SCATTERED CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING BUT THIS WILL BE
TEMPORARY AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AND WITH
THAT WILL BE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG AS WELL.
13
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT MON APR 6 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION IS MOVING ACROSS CNTRL TX THIS MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE IN THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT.
MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS WAY TOO WET...DEPICTING QUITE A BIT
OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA ALREADY THAT IS NOT PRESENT..AND DID NOT
PICK UP ON THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER CNTRL TX. HRRR SEEMS TO
HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT CONDITIONS AND BRINGS THE
WEAKENING CLUSTER INTO OUR NW ZONES...LIKELY ALONG OR JUST SOUTH
OF I-30...TODAY BUT APPEARS TO BE TO FAST. 06Z NAM HAS THE
CLUSTER AND SEEMS TO HANDLE TIMING WELL BUT DISSIPATES THE
CONVECTION REACH OUR AREA. HAVE COMPROMISED BY GOING SLIGHT CHANCE
AREAWIDE THIS MORNING FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND THEN TRIMMING THE
POPS BACK SLIGHTLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY REMNANTS
OF THE TX CONVECTION. PRECIP SHOULD END BY SUNSET THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE DIFFICULT. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER MAY REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO BREAK LATE BUT
QUICK WARMING SHOULD OCCUR IF THE CLOUDS TO SCATTER. BEST CHANCES
FOR SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BE SOUTH OF I-20.
THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE PAC NW COAST SHOULD BE MOVING
ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SFC...A LEE TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT SHOULD ORGANIZE AND MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA. LARGE
SCALE ASCENT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH MAY LEAD TO SOME CONVECTION
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-30 BY LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. BEST
DYNAMICS FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE NORTH OF OUR AREA AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW TRACK ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH
KS/IA. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD STILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME SEVERE TSTMS THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH THE GULF COAST BEFORE STALLING BRIEFLY
AND MOVING BACK NWD AS A WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
RAIN IN THE FORECAST PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF I-20. 00Z
GFS/ECMWF...WHILE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS PARTICULAR
RUN...ARE VERY INCONSISTENT ON A RUN-TO-RUN BASIS REGARDING
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE REGION
DURING DAY 7-8 TIME FRAME FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE DETAILS REMAIN SKETCHY...IT APPEARS MORE
UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER IS ON THE WAY. /09/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 79 64 83 65 / 30 10 10 10
MLU 78 65 84 65 / 30 10 10 10
DEQ 74 62 78 62 / 30 10 10 10
TXK 76 63 81 63 / 30 10 10 10
ELD 76 63 80 64 / 30 10 10 10
TYR 80 64 82 65 / 30 10 10 10
GGG 79 64 82 65 / 30 10 10 10
LFK 82 65 83 67 / 30 10 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
430 PM EDT MON APR 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT MON APR 6 2015(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW CONFLUENT WESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES BTWN NRN BRANCH TROF OVER ERN CANADA AND SRN
BRANCH RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL CONUS WHICH IS DOWNSTREAM OF A STRONG
TROF ALONG/JUST OFF THE W COAST. SNOW THAT AFFECTED MUCH OF SRN
UPPER MI LAST NIGHT/EARLIER TODAY HAS LARGELY ENDED AS SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE/STRONGER RIGHT ENTRANCE FORCING FROM UPPER JET ALONG AND
LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS HAVE SHIFTED E. TO THE N...A DRY AIR
MASS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING FROM
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA INTO NRN ONTARIO/NRN LAKE SUPERIOR CONTINUES
TO FEED TO THE S AND W.
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE UPPER JET WITHIN THE CONFLUENCE ZONE REMAINS
OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER LAKES REGION TONIGHT. THERE
ARE SOME HINTS THAT ANOTHER SUBTLE SHORTWAVE AND RIBBON OF
FRONTOGENESIS WILL STREAK ACROSS FAR SCNTRL UPPER MI THIS EVENING.
THIS MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER BAND OF SNOW STREAKING ACROSS MAINLY
MENOMINEE COUNTY. LATEST RAP/HRRR SUPPORT THIS IDEA AS DO THE 12Z
NAM AND HIRES WRF-ARW/NMM TO VARYING DEGREES. RADAR TRENDS UPSTREAM
LEND SOME SUPPORT AS WELL. WILL SHOW AN UPTICK IN POPS ACROSS THE
SRN HALF OF MENOMINEE COUNTY THIS EVENING WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
PROBABLY LESS THAN 1 INCH. EXPECT A SHARP CUTOFF TO THE SNOW FARTHER
N AS DRIER AIR FROM THE HIGH PRES RIDGE TO THE N AND NE CONTINUES TO
ADVECT S AND W. WILL CARRY SCHC POPS AS FAR N AS US-2 FROM IRON
RIVER TO ESCANABA. SNOW WILL END OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MIN TEMPS IN THE
20S ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH SOME TEENS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE USUAL
COLDER SPOTS ACROSS THE N AND E AS CLOUDS MAY THIN ENOUGH TO AID
COOLING OVERNIGHT.
QUIET DAY EXPECTED ON TUE AS ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON DRY AIR DOMINATING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. FAVORED THE LOWER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS WITH THE IDEA THAT FAIRLY THICK HIGHER CLOUDS
WILL PREVENT SIGNIFICANT WARMING. E TO NE WIND ALSO ARGUES FOR THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY SO FROM THE KEWEENAW ACROSS THE
NCNTRL AND S OF KESC NEAR LAKE MI. LOW TO MID 30S SHOULD BE THE RULE
IN THOSE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 40F...
HIGHEST WHERE E TO NE WINDS DOWNSLOPE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT MON APR 6 2015
THE LONG TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A CONTINUALLY FRUSTRATING
EXPERIENCE WHEN ATTEMPTING TO PIN DOWN THE FINER DETAILS OF THE
FORECAST. ESPECIALLY WITH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DISTURBANCES AND HAVING THERMAL PROFILES THAT
SUPPORT MIXED PRECIPITATION AND FREEZING RAIN.
TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING A SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE S OF THE AREA
OR OVER THE SRN CWA. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH TRACK OF THE
SHORTWAVE...LOCATION AND AMOUNT OF QPF...AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES.
THEREFORE...PRECIP AMOUNT AND TYPE ARE VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AS
WELL. IF THE COLDER GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFY...ANY PRECIP THAT
FALLS WOULD BE MORE SNOW TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING DRIZZLE AS MID
LEVEL MOISTURE CUTS OUT AND E WINDS FORCE ONSHORE/UPSLOPE PRECIP
INTO SCENTRAL UPPER MI. THE WARMER ALOFT NAM AND GEM WOULD RESULT IN
MORE FREEZING RAIN TURNING TO FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS BEING
SAID...THE SNOW OR RAIN PORTION IS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN. FREEZING
DRIZZLE WED MORNING SHOULD BE LIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MIXING SHOULD ALLOW
NEAR SFC LAYERS TO DRY OUT SOME.
WED AFTERNOON/EVENING LOOKS DRY INLAND...BUT COULD SEE DRIZZLE IN
UPSLOPE AREAS FROM THE E WINDS...MAINLY CENTRAL UPPER MI AND THE
KEWEENAW.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW WILL EJECT OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WED NIGHT...BRINGING A SURGE OF WARM AIR OVER THE CWA. MODELS
DO NOT AGREE WELL ON THE FINER DETAILS AND DO NOT HAVE GOOD RUN TO
RUN CONTINUITY. MAIN CONCERN EARLY IN THE EVENT IS WITH FREEZING
RAIN POTENTIAL WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL
EASILY SUPPORT ALL LIQUID PRECIP...WITH SFC TEMPS DETERMINING
FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL AS LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WILL BE TOO SHALLOW
FOR SLEET. FREEZING RAIN DOES LOOK LIKE A STRONG POSSIBILITY DURING
THIS TIME...BUT AMOUNTS OF QPF ARE STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH THE SYSTEM WILL PHASE WITH A NRN STREAM SYSTEM LATER
THU INTO FRI...BRINGING COLDER AIR IN FROM THE WNW LATE THU INTO
FRI. THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS EVEN MORE IN QUESTION AS MODELS
STRUGGLE WITH PHASING. IT DOES APPEAR PRECIP IS LIKELY...THE
UNCERTAINTY HAS MORE TO DO WITH PTYPE AND PRECIP AMOUNTS...FOR WHICH
SMALLER SCALE DETAILS WILL BE CRUCIAL. GIVEN THE GENERAL CONSENSUS
IDEA...THINK THAT PRECIP WILL TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN
TO SNOW OVER WRN UPPER MI THU EVENING/NIGHT...WITH SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS OF EACH POSSIBLE BUT NOT CERTAIN. RAIN SHOULD TRANSITION TO
MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE CENTRAL THU NIGHT. THE ECMWF MOVES
THE PRECIP OUT OF THE AREA FRI EVENING WHILE THE GFS LINGERS PRECIP
INTO SAT MORNING. GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATION WED
NIGHT/THU MORNING AND FREEZING RAIN/SNOW POTENTIAL THU EVENING/NIGHT
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.
IT LOOKS LIKE SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING SHIFT ACROSS THE
CWA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A WARM UP POSSIBLE AS THE HIGH SHIFTS E
AND A TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE W. WILL JUST RUN WITH A
CONSENSU OF GUIDANCE FOR SAT-MON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT MON APR 6 2015
HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO WILL ADVECT LOW-LEVEL
DRY AIR S AND W ACROSS UPPER MI THROUGH TUE MORNING. AS A
RESULT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS
FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT MON APR 6 2015
WITH LAKE SUPERIOR SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRES THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS
NRN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC THRU WED MORNING AND A WARM FRONT THAT WILL
REMAIN TO THE S AND SW ACROSS THE PLAINS TO OHIO VALLEY...E TO NE
WINDS WILL PERSIST. TYPICAL FOR E TO NE WINDS...WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...IN PARTICULAR BTWN THE APOSTLE
ISLANDS AND MN NSHORE WHERE FUNNELING/COASTAL CONVERGENCE ENHANCE
THE WINDS. IN THAT AREA...15-25KT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT
LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THRU TUE NIGHT. EXPECT SOME GALE FORCE
GUSTS TUE AFTN/EVENING. E TO NE WINDS...MOSTLY 15-25KT...WILL THEN
CONTINUE THRU WED AND ON INTO THU AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT THE LOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN GALES AS IT
APPROACHES AND THEN DEPARTS. WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO THE N AND NW
THU NIGHT AND FRI AS THE LOW EXITS TO THE NE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
356 PM EDT MON APR 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 654 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
BASED ON PERSISTENCE OF HIER RADAR ECHOES/LOWER VSBY ALONG THE WI
BORDER WITHIN RATHER NARROW FGEN BAND AS WELL AS SOME HEAVIER SN
REPORTS JUST S OF THE WI BORDER THAT ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE HIER
QPF SHOWN BY THE VARIOUS HI RES MODELS...OPTED TO ISSUE ADVY FOR
IRON...DICKINSON AND DELTA COUNTIES FOR AS MUCH AS 4 TO PERHAPS 5
INCHES. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE STEADIER SN WL DIMINSH BY MID MRNG WITH
PASSAGE OF DISTURBANCE TO THE E.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A CONFLUENT W FLOW
OVER THE UPR LKS BTWN ARCTIC BRANCH CLOSED LO OVER NRN QUEBEC AND
POLAR/SUBTROPICAL BRANCH UPR RDG IN THE NRN PLAINS. THERE IS A SHARP
H85 WARM FNT ORIENTED W-E ACRS THE UPR MIDWEST SEPARATING THE VERY
COLD AIR OVER ONTARIO...WHERE THE 00Z H85 TEMP WAS -16C AT YPL FROM
MUCH WARMER AIR IN THE CENTRAL CONUS...WHERE THE 00Z H85 TEMP WAS 9C
AT OMAHA. A RATHER NARROW W-E BAND OF SN IN THE GENERAL ISENTROPIC
ASCENT N OF THE WARM FNT AND UNDER SOME UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF 120KT H3
JET MAX IN SE CANADA IS ORIENTED FM CENTRAL MN ACRS NRN WI INTO MNM
COUNTY EARLY THIS MRNG ALONG AXIS OF SHARPEST FGEN BEST DEFINED IN
THE H7-6 LYR. BUT OVERALL DRYNESS OF THE LLVL AIRMASS IN THE AREA...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS TO THE N CLOSER TO SFC HI PRES ORIENTED FM SRN
MANITOBA ACRS FAR NRN LK SUP AND INTO SW QUEBEC...IS LIMITING THE
COVERAGE OF THE PCPN TO A FAIRLY NARROW BAND. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
INDICATES INCRSG REFLECTIVITIES IN MN AHEAD OF A SHRTWV MOVING E
THRU THE NRN PLAINS AS INDICATED ON WV IMAGERY.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WL FOCUS ON POPS/SN AMOUNTS
OVER MAINLY THE SRN TIER COUNTIES THIS MRNG ASSOCIATED WITH NARROW
BAND OF SN AND NEEDED HEADLINES.
TODAY...SHRTWV/AREA OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC NOW BRINGING
ENHANCEMENT TO THE PCPN OVER MN AND NRN WI IS FCST TO SLIDE E EARLY
THIS MRNG...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MORE FOCUSED DYNAMIC SUPPORT TO THE
CWA MAINLY TRHU MID MRNG. RECENT RADAR TRENDS SHOWING SOME
INTENSIFICATION OF THE ECHOES IN NW WI SUPPORT SOME OF THE RECENT
HIER RES MODEL FCSTS LIKE THE 00Z NAM OF THE HIER QPF UP TO ABOUT
0.30-0.35 INCH DRIFTING FARTHER TO THE N INTO THE WI BORDER
COUNTIES...A QPF CONSISTENT WITH THE 3 G/KG SPECIFIC HUMIDITY
PRESENT ARND H7. RATHER HI...NARROW DGZ SHOWN ON FCST SDNGS WL NOT
SUPPORT SN/WATER RATIO MUCH HIER THAN 10:1 IN THIS AREA. CONSIDERING
ADDING THESE COUNTIES TO ADVY...BUT POTENTIAL IMPACT OF LLVL DRY AIR
TO THE N THAT MIGHT LOWER THE QPF TO WHAT IS SHOWN ON SOME OF THE
OTHER HI RES MODELS LIKE THE HRRR INDICATE AN SPS FOR UP TO ABOUT 3
INCHES NEAR THE BORDER IN IRON AND DICKINSON COUNTIES AS WELL
AS DELTA COUNTY MIGHT BE A BETTER STATEGY. WL MAINTAIN THE WINTER WX
ADVY FOR MENOMINEE COUNTY. SINCE FCST SDNGS DO NOT SHOW AN ELEVATED
WARM LYR THAT FEATURES TEMPS ABOVE 0C...REMOVED THE MENTION OF MIXED
PCPN THIS MRNG. THE EXTENT OF THE DRY AIR TO THE N WL LIKELY RESULT
IN A SHARPER NRN EDGE OF THE MORE SGNFT PCPN THAN IS SHOWN BY THE
MODELS. ARRIVAL OF QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING SHRTWV BY LATE MRNG WL CAUSE THE SN BAND TO DIMINISH...WITH
LINGERING LGT PCPN OVER THE SCENTRAL TRANSITIONING TO A MIX OF
SN WITH SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT RA AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE MID/UPR 30S.
ARRIVAL OF SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE NRN TIER COUNTIES THIS AFTN WL
END ANY LINGERING PCPN THERE EVEN AS SOME CLDS LINGER.
TNGT...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE HINTS ANOTHER SHRTWV/SOME DYNAMIC SUPPORT
WL PUSH INTO THE AREA FM THE W IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...THE
CONTINUED ARRIVAL OF DRIER LLVL AIR SHOULD LIMIT POPS TO THE
SCENTRAL. TENDED TO CUT POPS FM PREVIOUS FCST ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NRN TIER...WITH NO HIER THAN CHC POPS EVEN NEAR THE WI BORDER.
LINGERING CLDS WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL EVEN WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF LLVL DRIER AIR.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT MON APR 6 2015
THE LONG TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A CONTINUALLY FRUSTRATING
EXPERIENCE WHEN ATTEMPTING TO PIN DOWN THE FINER DETAILS OF THE
FORECAST. ESPECIALLY WITH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DISTURBANCES AND HAVING THERMAL PROFILES THAT
SUPPORT MIXED PRECIPITATION AND FREEZING RAIN.
TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING A SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE S OF THE AREA
OR OVER THE SRN CWA. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH TRACK OF THE
SHORTWAVE...LOCATION AND AMOUNT OF QPF...AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES.
THEREFORE...PRECIP AMOUNT AND TYPE ARE VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AS
WELL. IF THE COLDER GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFY...ANY PRECIP THAT
FALLS WOULD BE MORE SNOW TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING DRIZZLE AS MID
LEVEL MOISTURE CUTS OUT AND E WINDS FORCE ONSHORE/UPSLOPE PRECIP
INTO SCENTRAL UPPER MI. THE WARMER ALOFT NAM AND GEM WOULD RESULT IN
MORE FREEZING RAIN TURNING TO FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS BEING
SAID...THE SNOW OR RAIN PORTION IS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN. FREEZING
DRIZZLE WED MORNING SHOULD BE LIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MIXING SHOULD ALLOW
NEAR SFC LAYERS TO DRY OUT SOME.
WED AFTERNOON/EVENING LOOKS DRY INLAND...BUT COULD SEE DRIZZLE IN
UPSLOPE AREAS FROM THE E WINDS...MAINLY CENTRAL UPPER MI AND THE
KEWEENAW.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW WILL EJECT OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WED NIGHT...BRINGING A SURGE OF WARM AIR OVER THE CWA. MODELS
DO NOT AGREE WELL ON THE FINER DETAILS AND DO NOT HAVE GOOD RUN TO
RUN CONTINUITY. MAIN CONCERN EARLY IN THE EVENT IS WITH FREEZING
RAIN POTENTIAL WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL
EASILY SUPPORT ALL LIQUID PRECIP...WITH SFC TEMPS DETERMINING
FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL AS LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WILL BE TOO SHALLOW
FOR SLEET. FREEZING RAIN DOES LOOK LIKE A STRONG POSSIBILITY DURING
THIS TIME...BUT AMOUNTS OF QPF ARE STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH THE SYSTEM WILL PHASE WITH A NRN STREAM SYSTEM LATER
THU INTO FRI...BRINGING COLDER AIR IN FROM THE WNW LATE THU INTO
FRI. THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS EVEN MORE IN QUESTION AS MODELS
STRUGGLE WITH PHASING. IT DOES APPEAR PRECIP IS LIKELY...THE
UNCERTAINTY HAS MORE TO DO WITH PTYPE AND PRECIP AMOUNTS...FOR WHICH
SMALLER SCALE DETAILS WILL BE CRUCIAL. GIVEN THE GENERAL CONSENSUS
IDEA...THINK THAT PRECIP WILL TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN
TO SNOW OVER WRN UPPER MI THU EVENING/NIGHT...WITH SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS OF EACH POSSIBLE BUT NOT CERTAIN. RAIN SHOULD TRANSITION TO
MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE CENTRAL THU NIGHT. THE ECMWF MOVES
THE PRECIP OUT OF THE AREA FRI EVENING WHILE THE GFS LINGERS PRECIP
INTO SAT MORNING. GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATION WED
NIGHT/THU MORNING AND FREEZING RAIN/SNOW POTENTIAL THU EVENING/NIGHT
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.
IT LOOKS LIKE SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING SHIFT ACROSS THE
CWA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A WARM UP POSSIBLE AS THE HIGH SHIFTS E
AND A TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE W. WILL JUST RUN WITH A
CONSENSU OF GUIDANCE FOR SAT-MON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT MON APR 6 2015
HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO WILL ADVECT LOW-LEVEL
DRY AIR S AND W ACROSS UPPER MI THROUGH TUE MORNING. AS A
RESULT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS
FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
WITH LAKE SUPERIOR SITUATED BETWEEN A HIGH IN SOUTHERN CANADA AND A
WARM FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...EXPECT EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE TIME...WINDS
WILL BE BELOW 25KTS...BUT FUNNELING DOWN THE WESTERN THIRD OF
LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO 30KTS. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY THERE COULD BE
NORTH-NORTHEAST GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AS IT MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
139 PM EDT MON APR 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 654 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
BASED ON PERSISTENCE OF HIER RADAR ECHOES/LOWER VSBY ALONG THE WI
BORDER WITHIN RATHER NARROW FGEN BAND AS WELL AS SOME HEAVIER SN
REPORTS JUST S OF THE WI BORDER THAT ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE HIER
QPF SHOWN BY THE VARIOUS HI RES MODELS...OPTED TO ISSUE ADVY FOR
IRON...DICKINSON AND DELTA COUNTIES FOR AS MUCH AS 4 TO PERHAPS 5
INCHES. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE STEADIER SN WL DIMINSH BY MID MRNG WITH
PASSAGE OF DISTURBANCE TO THE E.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A CONFLUENT W FLOW
OVER THE UPR LKS BTWN ARCTIC BRANCH CLOSED LO OVER NRN QUEBEC AND
POLAR/SUBTROPICAL BRANCH UPR RDG IN THE NRN PLAINS. THERE IS A SHARP
H85 WARM FNT ORIENTED W-E ACRS THE UPR MIDWEST SEPARATING THE VERY
COLD AIR OVER ONTARIO...WHERE THE 00Z H85 TEMP WAS -16C AT YPL FROM
MUCH WARMER AIR IN THE CENTRAL CONUS...WHERE THE 00Z H85 TEMP WAS 9C
AT OMAHA. A RATHER NARROW W-E BAND OF SN IN THE GENERAL ISENTROPIC
ASCENT N OF THE WARM FNT AND UNDER SOME UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF 120KT H3
JET MAX IN SE CANADA IS ORIENTED FM CENTRAL MN ACRS NRN WI INTO MNM
COUNTY EARLY THIS MRNG ALONG AXIS OF SHARPEST FGEN BEST DEFINED IN
THE H7-6 LYR. BUT OVERALL DRYNESS OF THE LLVL AIRMASS IN THE AREA...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS TO THE N CLOSER TO SFC HI PRES ORIENTED FM SRN
MANITOBA ACRS FAR NRN LK SUP AND INTO SW QUEBEC...IS LIMITING THE
COVERAGE OF THE PCPN TO A FAIRLY NARROW BAND. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
INDICATES INCRSG REFLECTIVITIES IN MN AHEAD OF A SHRTWV MOVING E
THRU THE NRN PLAINS AS INDICATED ON WV IMAGERY.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WL FOCUS ON POPS/SN AMOUNTS
OVER MAINLY THE SRN TIER COUNTIES THIS MRNG ASSOCIATED WITH NARROW
BAND OF SN AND NEEDED HEADLINES.
TODAY...SHRTWV/AREA OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC NOW BRINGING
ENHANCEMENT TO THE PCPN OVER MN AND NRN WI IS FCST TO SLIDE E EARLY
THIS MRNG...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MORE FOCUSED DYNAMIC SUPPORT TO THE
CWA MAINLY TRHU MID MRNG. RECENT RADAR TRENDS SHOWING SOME
INTENSIFICATION OF THE ECHOES IN NW WI SUPPORT SOME OF THE RECENT
HIER RES MODEL FCSTS LIKE THE 00Z NAM OF THE HIER QPF UP TO ABOUT
0.30-0.35 INCH DRIFTING FARTHER TO THE N INTO THE WI BORDER
COUNTIES...A QPF CONSISTENT WITH THE 3 G/KG SPECIFIC HUMIDITY
PRESENT ARND H7. RATHER HI...NARROW DGZ SHOWN ON FCST SDNGS WL NOT
SUPPORT SN/WATER RATIO MUCH HIER THAN 10:1 IN THIS AREA. CONSIDERING
ADDING THESE COUNTIES TO ADVY...BUT POTENTIAL IMPACT OF LLVL DRY AIR
TO THE N THAT MIGHT LOWER THE QPF TO WHAT IS SHOWN ON SOME OF THE
OTHER HI RES MODELS LIKE THE HRRR INDICATE AN SPS FOR UP TO ABOUT 3
INCHES NEAR THE BORDER IN IRON AND DICKINSON COUNTIES AS WELL
AS DELTA COUNTY MIGHT BE A BETTER STATEGY. WL MAINTAIN THE WINTER WX
ADVY FOR MENOMINEE COUNTY. SINCE FCST SDNGS DO NOT SHOW AN ELEVATED
WARM LYR THAT FEATURES TEMPS ABOVE 0C...REMOVED THE MENTION OF MIXED
PCPN THIS MRNG. THE EXTENT OF THE DRY AIR TO THE N WL LIKELY RESULT
IN A SHARPER NRN EDGE OF THE MORE SGNFT PCPN THAN IS SHOWN BY THE
MODELS. ARRIVAL OF QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING SHRTWV BY LATE MRNG WL CAUSE THE SN BAND TO DIMINISH...WITH
LINGERING LGT PCPN OVER THE SCENTRAL TRANSITIONING TO A MIX OF
SN WITH SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT RA AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE MID/UPR 30S.
ARRIVAL OF SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE NRN TIER COUNTIES THIS AFTN WL
END ANY LINGERING PCPN THERE EVEN AS SOME CLDS LINGER.
TNGT...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE HINTS ANOTHER SHRTWV/SOME DYNAMIC SUPPORT
WL PUSH INTO THE AREA FM THE W IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...THE
CONTINUED ARRIVAL OF DRIER LLVL AIR SHOULD LIMIT POPS TO THE
SCENTRAL. TENDED TO CUT POPS FM PREVIOUS FCST ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NRN TIER...WITH NO HIER THAN CHC POPS EVEN NEAR THE WI BORDER.
LINGERING CLDS WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL EVEN WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF LLVL DRIER AIR.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
THE LONG TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A FRUSTRATING EXPERIENCE WHEN
ATTEMPTING TO PIN DOWN THE FINER DETAILS OF THE FORECAST. ESPECIALLY
WITH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
DISTURBANCES AND HAVING THERMAL PROFILES THAT SUPPORT MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND FREEZING RAIN.
THE START OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST HAS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
BETWEEN A HIGH MOVING EAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE WARM FRONT DRAPED
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THIS
WARM FRONT SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH ON TUESDAY...WOULD EXPECT THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION TO STAY SOUTH OF THE CWA...BUT THE AREA
CONTINUES TO SEE WEAK SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND THROUGH THE REGION. WITH THE FLUCTUATIONS
IN THE MODELS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...WILL OPT TO TREND THE
FORECAST IN THE LATEST DIRECTIONS WITH OUT GETTING TOO SPECIFIC.
THEREFORE FOR TUESDAY...THINK THE DRY AIR (BETWEEN 850-750MB)
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO WILL KEEP THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA DRY WHILE THE AREA ALONG THE WISCONSIN
BORDER MAY SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
850-700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION INITIALLY IN THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF THE ICE CRYSTALS CUTTING OUT...OPTED TO KEEP
P-TYPE AS SNOW DUE THE THE AMOUNT OF DRYING OCCURRING IN THE
MORNING. ALTHOUGH THAT DRY AIR IS MOVING IN...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FORCING/MOISTURE WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND 700-600MB TO
SUPPORT CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST 2/3RDS OF THE CWA.
AS THE SURFACE LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES IS SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ANOTHER
STRONGER SHORTWAVE LIFTS EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS STAGE...THINK THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL STAY TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA (TRACKING
THROUGH NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AND INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN). BUT
THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR CHANCES OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE U.P. LOOKING
AT THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...EXPECT MUCH OF THIS PRECIP TO FALL AS
SNOW...BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL WARMING OVER SOUTHERN
MENOMINEE COUNTY TO PARTIALLY MELT THE SNOWFLAKES...LEADING TO SOME
SLEET OR MAYBE EVEN FREEZING RAIN. THAT WAVE QUICKLY DEPARTS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...SO WOULD EXPECT A DRYING
TREND AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE (FROM
THE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST OF JAMES BAY) SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE CWA.
THAT WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THE NEXT WAVE WILL EJECT TOWARDS THE REGION UNDER THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. IN ADDITION TO THE SHORTWAVE...WARM AIR
WILL SURGE NORTH OVER THE REGION...WITH 850-800MB TEMPS WARMING
ABOVE 5C. THUS...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS THROUGH THIS WARM
LAYER WILL MELT AND THE P-TYPE WILL DEPEND ON THE NEAR SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE EXISTING COLD AIR FROM THE DEPARTING
HIGH...WOULD EXPECT PRIMARILY FREEZING RAIN FOR THE START OF THE
EVENT (LOWEST 2KFT ARE BELOW FREEZING)...AS IT DOESN/T LOOK LIKE
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE FOR SLEET. THE
ARRIVAL TIME OF THE PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CRUCIAL FOR THE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FORECAST AS
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH MID
MORNING BEFORE WARMING SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW HIGH CHANCE OR EVEN LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA STARTING VERY
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING THROUGH THURSDAY.
HOPEFULLY...MODELS WILL CLOSE IN ON THE LOCATION OF THE BEST
PRECIPITATION FOR THIS PERIOD...AS IT APPEARS TO BE A DECENT
OPPORTUNITY FOR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE U.P.. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THIS THREAT IN THE HWO AND WITH THE INCREASING CONFIDENCE
START TO PROVIDE A LITTLE MORE DETAIL.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY/SATURDAY...BUT MODELS STILL DIFFERING ON THE DETAILS. WHILE
THE CONSISTENCY IS LACKING...THE LATEST TRENDS WITH THE 00Z MODELS
IS FOR A QUICKER LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WHICH
WOULD ALLOW IT TO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM. THE 00Z ECMWF MADE
A SIGNIFICANT JUMP TOWARDS THE FASTER SOLUTION SEEN IN THE PREVIOUS
GFS RUNS. THAT IS A SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURE FROM THE 12Z ECMWF/GEM
ENSEMBLE MEANS...SO IT WILL BE INTERESTING IF THAT TREND CONTINUES.
OVERALL...FELT A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS WAS REASONABLE FOR
THE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD...WHICH HAS THE NEXT
WAVE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. WITH THE FASTER AND
FARTHER SOUTHEAST TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...A TRANSITION FROM RAIN
OR FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN
ON FRIDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME MEASURABLE ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE
WEST...BUT IT IS STILL WAY TO FAR OUT AND UNCERTAIN TO HAVE AN
INDICATION ON AMOUNTS.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA...SATURDAY COULD SEE SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY. ANOTHER
STRONG SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA ON SATURDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THAT SETS THE
STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE START TO THE NEXT WORK WEEK (RAINY AND POSSIBLY
SOME THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW ON THE
BACKSIDE FOR TUESDAY THE 14TH).
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT MON APR 6 2015
HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO WILL ADVECT LOW-LEVEL
DRY AIR S AND W ACROSS UPPER MI THROUGH TUE MORNING. AS A
RESULT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS
FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015
WITH LAKE SUPERIOR SITUATED BETWEEN A HIGH IN SOUTHERN CANADA AND A
WARM FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...EXPECT EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE TIME...WINDS
WILL BE BELOW 25KTS...BUT FUNNELING DOWN THE WESTERN THIRD OF
LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO 30KTS. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY THERE COULD BE
NORTH-NORTHEAST GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AS IT MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
350 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2015
Low pressure over the Great Plains continues to push a warm and
moist airmass into the region. Guidance suggests that convection
will blossom after 06-08Z somewhere over the CWFA as the nose of a
35-40kt low level jet runs into the 850mb baroclinic zone which is
draped over the area. Resulting isentropic lift should produce an
area of convection late tonight. This is all good in theory,
however short range guidance including the NAM and RAP show a decent
inversion above the level of free convection on forecast soundings
at various locations and times across the area. This puts
significant doubt on timing and coverage of convection late
tonight. Current feeling is that the best chance for storms to
develop will be 08Z or later, and possibly near the I-70 corridor in
Missouri. Ample pre-storm MUCAPE in excess of 1500-2000 J/kg and
persistent LLJ/isentropic lift should allow storms to increase in
coverage through 12Z. Also, with that kind of instability available
and forecast deep layer shear around 40kts, could see some storms
produce large hail. Only the uncertainty of where the storms will
form and ultimate areal coverage has dissuaded me from going with
likely or higher PoPs. As it stands, have 40-50% across the entire
CWFA late tonight, as this should allow the evening shift to
monitor latest trends and adjust as necessary.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2015
Main forecast concern continues to be precipitation chances.
Obviously, threat of convection will be very high by Thursday and
Thursday night as deep upper level trof and associated surface
features push into the mid Mississippi Valley...the primary
problem is trying to pin down spatial and temporal convective
trends from tomorrow morning until the widespread and stormy
weather that is expected by Thursday.
The elevated storms that do develop late tonight should wind down
during the morning, leaving unstable but capped AMS blanketing the
area from Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. Current
forecast soundings would suggest that southward sagging frontal
boundary will not be enough to bust through the warm mid level
temps, but there also seems to be some hints of very weak
shortwave energy ejecting into the area from the upper trof to our
west that could produce more elevated activity. In truth I can
probably dream up 2 or 3 scenarios on how convection could evolve
during this time, but with so much uncertainty for now plan on
sticking with going forecast trends, which generally indicate low
chance PoPs over most of the CWA during this time frame.
Fine-tuning will have to wait until this time period gets a bit
closer and specifics (hopefully) become clearer.
In spite of the considerable abiguity in precip trends heading into
mid week, today`s model guidance as well as that over the past
several days continue to point to widespread convection as we head
into Wednesday night and Thursday, with storms continuing into at
least Thursday evening. Intensifying surface low over the central
Plains on Wednesday afternoon will lead to increasing WAA
advection and isentropic ascent north of the frontal boundary.
This low level level forcing should then punch through the mid-
level cap which should begin to weaken by this time as heights
begin to fall in advance of the upper level trof. This round of
convection will work east as the synoptic front pushes north of
the area, placing the entire CWA in the warm sector of the surface
cyclone by Thursday morning. More convection should develop during
the day either from additional shortwave energy or perhaps the
effects of any residual boundaries from Wednesday night`s
activity, with a final shot of convection occurring along the cold
front as we head into the evening hours.
The synoptic models have backed off some on the instability
forecast, perhaps due to extensive cloudiness in the low levels as
well as a weakening of the nearly dry adiabtic lapse rates in the
EML that are progged early on during the forecast cycle. However,
kinematic and synoptic fields still strongly suggest a severe
weather threat...or more likely several episodes of severe
weather...from Wednesday night into Thursday evening. As alluded
to in the day3 and day 4 SPC discussions, threat of large hail and
damaging winds looks fairly substantial, while specific tornado
threat will at least be partially predicated on the specific
locations of fronts and any residual boundaries.
Uncertain how to handle the passage of the cold front/end of
thunderstorm threat. Initial thought was to slow it down a bit as a
common model bias is to be too fast with strong upper level systems,
but on the other hand convection along the front will likely be
screaming to the east, so effective bounday may race ahead of the
actual front. So, will continue thunderstorm threat across the
entire CWA on Thursday night, but will go dry by Friday.
It appears that this dry weather will continue into Saturday, with
thunderstorm chances returning by Sunday and Monday.
In spite of the fact that there will be considerable cloudiness,
there should be plenty of warmth through Thursday, with highs
primarily ranging from the middle 70s to lower 80s. The exception
to this may be over our northern counties on Wednesday, where
southward drift of the cold front will back off temps into the upper
60s and lower 70s. Arrival of the cold air will mean more
seasonable temps by Friday and Saturday.
Truett
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2015
MVFR flight conditions will prevail across much of the area this
afternoon. Ceilings will likely be dropping from AOA 2000 FT down
to between 1000-1900 FT through 20-22Z. Expect further lowering to
IFR conditions after 00Z. IFR conditions will prevail thereafter.
Short range model guidance is showing an increasing chance of
thunderstorms after 08Z Tuesday morning. However, the spread on
where the thunderstorms will form is quite large. While there is
increasing confidence that there will be storms, I have low
confidence on the areal coverage, strength, and location of those
storms.
Specifics for KSTL:
MVFR flight conditions will prevail at Lambert this afternoon.
18Z ob came in below 2000 FT and it`s likely the ceiling won`t
improve for the remainder of the day. Expect further lowering to
IFR conditions after 00Z. IFR conditions will prevail thereafter.
Short range model guidance is showing an increasing chance of
thunderstorms after 08Z Tuesday morning. However, the spread on
where the thunderstorms will form is quite large. While there is
increasing confidence that there will be storms, I have low
confidence on the areal coverage, strength, and location of those
storms.
Carney
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
401 PM CDT MON APR 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON APR 6 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE ON AND OFF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES...AND SEVERE POTENTIAL.
THE LOW CLOUDS MOVED IN OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME FOG AND DRIZZLE.
THE 12Z OAX SOUNDING WAS SATURATED TO 890MB/2500FT WITH 0.49PWAT.
A FEW STORMS DEVELOPED AROUND BOONE AND ANTELOPE COUNTIES AND
LIFTED TOWARD WAYNE...WITH A STRONGER CLUSTER NEAR WASHINGTON AND
BURT THAT LIFTED NORTHEAST ACROSS HARRISON...MONONA...AND SHELBY
WITH OTHERS IN SOUTHWEST IOWA. THE 12Z H5 MAP SHOWED A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WITH THIS FEATURE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE H5
CLOSED LOW WAS STILL OFF THE WASHINGTON/OREGON COAST WITH A BROAD
TROF. THERE WAS A WEAK WAVE IN THE FLOW AT H7 APPROACHING THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA AT 12Z...WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OVER COLORADO
AND YET FARTHER SOUTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE H85
PATTERN HAD AN H85 LOW NEAR LBF WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT
AND A POCKET OF 7C DEWPOINTS. THE 10-12DEG. H85 DEWPOINTS WERE
OVER SOUTHERN MO AND ARKANSAS INTO EASTERN OK. THE H7 DEWPOINTS
WERE BETTER OVER TN/AL/MS. THE +20 DEG. C H85 TEMPS WERE OVER TX
WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE NOSING TOWARD OMA AT +12 DEG C.
THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS CLOUDY MOST AREAS...WITH
SOME BUMPY CLOUDS NEAR SD INTO IOWA AND A FEW THINNER SPOTS TOWARD
FAIRBURY... THE SURFACE FRONT WAS NEAR YANKTON TO ONL WITH A
DRYLINE NEAR KGBD KANSAS AND THE WARM FRONT FROM SALINA TO
WICHITA WITH THE CLEARING NEAR THERE. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
50S TO LOWER 60S WITH 70S AND 80S SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.THE LOCAL
RADAR WAS MAINLY DRY WITH ECHOES TO THE NORTHEAST INTO IOWA.
STILL SOME PATCHY FOG WITH VSBYS 2 TO 4 MILES IN SPOTS.
TONIGHT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO ORGANIZE A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH IN KANSAS WITH NORTHEAST FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. ONE THING TO WATCH WILL BE A 50KT LOW LEVEL JET THAT
INCREASES ACROSS KANSAS INTO MISSOURI. THE 4KM WRF HAS A CLUSTER OF
STORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI.
THE RAP HAS SHOWERS/TSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. IN OUR
FORECAST AREA...ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS SPOTTY. DO HAVE HIGHER
POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST AND ALSO IN THE NORTHEAST BY MORNING. THE
GFS DOES INCREASE INSTABILITY TOWARD 1000J/KG IN THE SOUTHEAST. ANY
STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME HAIL. THERE MAY BE AN ENHANCED
BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY MORNING NEAR AN
INVERTED TROF AND SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSES THROUGH.
TUESDAY...THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA OR NORTHEAST KANSAS...WITH A H85 CIRCULATION OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THE PRECIPITATION (SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS) SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES AGAIN SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...WITH 60S CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE LOW FALLS CITY COULD BREAK OUT TO THE LOWER 70S.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE STRONGER
SHORTWAVE...FLOW BACKS AND RE-FOCUSES THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AGAIN ON THE INCREASE. THE BETTER COVERAGE
SHOULD BE THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE DAY 3 SPC
OUTLOOK HAS THIS AREA ALSO IN THE SLIGHT RISK AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. THE
NAM/EC IS NOT QUITE AS FAR NORTH AT THE GFS. SO THIS WILL BE
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROF TO THE
WEST. POST-FRONT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON APR 6 2015
THE STORM SYSTEM PULLS AWAY THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. ON AND OFF PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT MON APR 6 2015
CIGS CONT TO BE IN IFR RANGE THIS MRNG...BUT MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD BECOME MVFR BY LATE AFTN AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WE
HAVE HAD SOME DZ AT ALL 3 SITES THIS MRNG...BUT THIS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE OVER BY EARLY AFTN. WILL LEAVE THAT TAF SITES DRY FOR
THE REST OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WE MAY SEEN AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS ON TUE MRNG TO END THIS CYCLE BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. CIGS
SHOULD LOWER AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT TO IFR AT KOMA AND LIFR AT
KOFK/KLNK.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
544 PM EDT MON APR 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY TONIGHT WILL MOVE
SOUTH OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH FROM CANADA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BE OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING MORE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
TO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 538 PM EDT MONDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO TIGHTEN TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT AND ADJUST SOME OF THE NEAR-TERM POPS/WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY REMAIN FROM 30-36F WHILE
SOME LOCATIONS EVEN AS CLOSE AS SPRINGFIELD VERMONT HAVE REACHED
50F. BECAUSE TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOLER IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES...HAVE ADDED IN MORE MENTION OF SNOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. ALSO TWEAKED POPS TO BETTER REPRESENT RADAR AND FORECAST TRENDS
FOR THE EVENING. BAND OF PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN TIER WILL LIFT
A BIT FURTHER NORTHWARD BEFORE STALLING AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERY PRECIP POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING OVER
SOUTHERN VERMONT AS WELL.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 404 PM MONDAY...
COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVERRUNNING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT AT THIS
TIME. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY WORKING
NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AT THIS TIME...SO EXPECTING THIS
ACTIVITY TO WORK INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP ALSO SHOWING MORE CLOUD COVER
HEADING FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AT THIS TIME AS
WELL. GIVEN CLOUD COVER HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE
FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 404 PM EDT MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTH FROM CANADA ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEN EXPECTING
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY TO REMAINDER OF THE DAY TO BE DRY. THIS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF
MOISTURE WILL WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE OVERRUNNING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. MODEL ALSO SHOWING AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL SET UP ACROSS
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE GONE WARMER THAN THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR
MIN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THIS
GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COOL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN CLOUD COVER OVER THE
REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 336 PM EDT MONDAY...12Z GLOBAL SUITE OF GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED PATTERN. FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, LARGE-
SCALE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS REBUILD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST, WHICH LEADS TO DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. IT APPEARS THAT A PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD
MILDER WEATHER IS IN THE OFFING. IT`S MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF
SPRING THAN WHAT WE`VE EXPERIENCED RECENTLY, AT LEAST.
THURSDAY: LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME WITH
WARMING 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES PRODUCES MAINLY LIGHT RAIN. THE ONE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN VT IN THE MORNING, AS COLD-AIR
DAMMING SIGNATURE EVIDENT IN SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE AND THICKNESS FILEDS
SUGGEST NEAR TO SUB-FREEZING LOW-LEVELS IN THESE AREAS. STRENGTH OF
WARM ADVECTION SHOULD READILY OVERCOME THIS LAYER, THOUGH, SO PERIOD
OF FROZEN PRECIP IS BRIEF. HIGHS LOWER 40S EASTERN VT TO AROUND 50
FOR ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.
THURSDAY NIGHT: BEST SURGE OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP COMES IN DURING
THE EARLY PART OF THURSDAY NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS ALSO ON THE
INCREASE, SO WHILE POPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY, I DO
SHOW A RELATIVE MIN IN POPS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, AS BREEZY SOUTH
WINDS TEND TO LIMIT QPF LOCALLY. ASIDE FROM EASTERN VT WHERE MID
30S ARE FORECAST, LOWS OTHERWISE ARE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S
GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS/PRECIP.
FRIDAY: 500 MB RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AHEAD OF A DIGGING
SHORTWAVE INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH MUCH OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY IN A WARM SECTOR BETWEEN APPROACHING OCCLUDED FRONT, WARM
THERMAL AND MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD BE UNDERWAY ON FRIDAY. IN
FACT, PWAT VALUES DO CLIMB OVER AN INCH PER THE 12Z GFS. SHOULD SEE
PERIODS OF LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE WARM SECTOR, WITH THE GREATEST POPS
TIED MOSTLY TO THE COLD FRONT. 925/850 MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND +10C,
THOUGH LIKELY PARTIAL TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ONLY YIELD HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S. RESULTING SNOW MELT SHOULD PRODUCE SOME RISE IN
RIVER LEVELS, THOUGH CURRENT STAGES STILL ARE PRETTY LOW.
FRIDAY NIGHT: OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOULD BE FOCUSED MORE ALONG THE FRONT.
SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH QPF FALLS WITH THE FRONT AND PENDING
HOW MUCH SNOW CAN MELT, COULD HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON OUR RIVERS
FOR RISES. THOUGH TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL BEHIND THE FRONT, RH
PROFILES SUGGEST AT LEAST PARTIAL CLOUDINESS, WHICH KEEPS LOWS
STILL IN THE 30S/AROUND 40.
SATURDAY: SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. I`VE SHOWN CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN
ZONES FOR SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50.
SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY: GENERALLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN,
BUT COLD ADVECTION REGIME BRINGS 850 MB TEMPS BACK DOWN TO -4 TO -
6C. CONTINUED DRY WEATHER INTO SUNDAY UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
USED SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THIS PERIOD, WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S SATURDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
PATTERN THEN GETS A BIT LESS CERTAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, BUT
INDICATIONS ARE FOR A RETURN TO MILDER WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LARGELY STUCK WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE TO CLOSE THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES BETWEEN VFR TO
IFR AS WARM FRONT LIFTS TO ABOUT THE CANADIAN BORDER, AND SAGS
BACK SOUTHWARD LATER THIS EVENING. PRETTY BUSY TAF PERIOD WITH LOW
VISIBILITIES AND MOUNTAINS OBSCURED BY LOW CEILINGS, BUT OVERALL
LIMITED IMPACT TO AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS.
COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS AN EAST-WEST BAND OF ECHOES PRODUCING IFR
VISIBILITY RAIN/SNOW MIX NOW LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE TAFS.
FURTHER SOUTH THOUGH, PRECIPITATION HAS ALREADY ENDED - AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY AT RUT. VISIBILITIES SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AS FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION AND IMPROVEMENT IN VISBYS UNTIL AROUND
00-02Z. APPROACHING MOISTURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY IS PROGGED BY
THE HRRR TO SHIFT INTO RUT, WHILE WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH BEGINS
ITS SAG SOUTHWARD. THAT SHOULD PRODUCE ANOTHER PERIOD OF MVFR TO
IFR VISIBILITIES IN RAIN/SNOW. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE BECOMING
SOUTH UNDER 10 KTS, THEN SHIFTING TO NORTH UNDER 10 KTS OVERNIGHT
AS BOUNDARY SAGS BACK SOUTHWARD.
FOR TUESDAY, ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY AT
RUT IN THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...TRENDING VFR AT ALL TERMINALS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE AREA.
18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...TRENDING MVFR/OCCNL IFR IN
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY RIDING ALONG
SEMI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...TRENDING VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE,
THOUGH BKN/OVC CIGS STILL LIKELY.
00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN STEADIER RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
404 PM EDT MON APR 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY TONIGHT WILL MOVE
SOUTH OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH FROM CANADA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BE OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING MORE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
TO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 404 PM EDT MONDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OVERRUNNING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND VERMONT AT THIS TIME. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING MORE SHOWER
ACTIVITY WORKING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AT THIS TIME...SO
EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO WORK INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP ALSO SHOWING MORE
CLOUD COVER HEADING FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AT
THIS TIME AS WELL. GIVEN CLOUD COVER HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN
MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 404 PM EDT MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTH FROM CANADA ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEN EXPECTING
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY TO REMAINDER OF THE DAY TO BE DRY. THIS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF
MOISTURE WILL WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE OVERRUNNING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. MODEL ALSO SHOWING AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL SET UP ACROSS
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE GONE WARMER THAN THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR
MIN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THIS
GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COOL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN CLOUD COVER OVER THE
REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 336 PM EDT MONDAY...12Z GLOBAL SUITE OF GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED PATTERN. FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, LARGE-
SCALE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS REBUILD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST, WHICH LEADS TO DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. IT APPEARS THAT A PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD
MILDER WEATHER IS IN THE OFFING. IT`S MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF
SPRING THAN WHAT WE`VE EXPERIENCED RECENTLY, AT LEAST.
THURSDAY: LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME WITH
WARMING 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES PRODUCES MAINLY LIGHT RAIN. THE ONE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN VT IN THE MORNING, AS COLD-AIR
DAMMING SIGNATURE EVIDENT IN SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE AND THICKNESS FILEDS
SUGGEST NEAR TO SUB-FREEZING LOW-LEVELS IN THESE AREAS. STRENGTH OF
WARM ADVECTION SHOULD READILY OVERCOME THIS LAYER, THOUGH, SO PERIOD
OF FROZEN PRECIP IS BRIEF. HIGHS LOWER 40S EASTERN VT TO AROUND 50
FOR ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.
THURSDAY NIGHT: BEST SURGE OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP COMES IN DURING
THE EARLY PART OF THURSDAY NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS ALSO ON THE
INCREASE, SO WHILE POPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY, I DO
SHOW A RELATIVE MIN IN POPS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, AS BREEZY SOUTH
WINDS TEND TO LIMIT QPF LOCALLY. ASIDE FROM EASTERN VT WHERE MID
30S ARE FORECAST, LOWS OTHERWISE ARE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S
GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS/PRECIP.
FRIDAY: 500 MB RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AHEAD OF A DIGGING
SHORTWAVE INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH MUCH OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY IN A WARM SECTOR BETWEEN APPROACHING OCCLUDED FRONT, WARM
THERMAL AND MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD BE UNDERWAY ON FRIDAY. IN
FACT, PWAT VALUES DO CLIMB OVER AN INCH PER THE 12Z GFS. SHOULD SEE
PERIODS OF LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE WARM SECTOR, WITH THE GREATEST POPS
TIED MOSTLY TO THE COLD FRONT. 925/850 MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND +10C,
THOUGH LIKELY PARTIAL TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ONLY YIELD HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S. RESULTING SNOW MELT SHOULD PRODUCE SOME RISE IN
RIVER LEVELS, THOUGH CURRENT STAGES STILL ARE PRETTY LOW.
FRIDAY NIGHT: OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOULD BE FOCUSED MORE ALONG THE FRONT.
SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH QPF FALLS WITH THE FRONT AND PENDING
HOW MUCH SNOW CAN MELT, COULD HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON OUR RIVERS
FOR RISES. THOUGH TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL BEHIND THE FRONT, RH
PROFILES SUGGEST AT LEAST PARTIAL CLOUDINESS, WHICH KEEPS LOWS
STILL IN THE 30S/AROUND 40.
SATURDAY: SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. I`VE SHOWN CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN
ZONES FOR SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50.
SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY: GENERALLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN,
BUT COLD ADVECTION REGIME BRINGS 850 MB TEMPS BACK DOWN TO -4 TO -
6C. CONTINUED DRY WEATHER INTO SUNDAY UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
USED SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THIS PERIOD, WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S SATURDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
PATTERN THEN GETS A BIT LESS CERTAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, BUT
INDICATIONS ARE FOR A RETURN TO MILDER WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LARGELY STUCK WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE TO CLOSE THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES BETWEEN VFR TO
IFR AS WARM FRONT LIFTS TO ABOUT THE CANADIAN BORDER, AND SAGS
BACK SOUTHWARD LATER THIS EVENING. PRETTY BUSY TAF PERIOD WITH LOW
VISIBILITIES AND MOUNTAINS OBSCURED BY LOW CEILINGS, BUT OVERALL
LIMITED IMPACT TO AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS.
COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS AN EAST-WEST BAND OF ECHOES PRODUCING IFR
VISIBILITY RAIN/SNOW MIX NOW LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE TAFS.
FURTHER SOUTH THOUGH, PRECIPITATION HAS ALREADY ENDED - AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY AT RUT. VISIBILITIES SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AS FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION AND IMPROVEMENT IN VISBYS UNTIL AROUND
00-02Z. APPROACHING MOISTURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY IS PROGGED BY
THE HRRR TO SHIFT INTO RUT, WHILE WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH BEGINS
ITS SAG SOUTHWARD. THAT SHOULD PRODUCE ANOTHER PERIOD OF MVFR TO
IFR VISIBILITIES IN RAIN/SNOW. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE BECOMING
SOUTH UNDER 10 KTS, THEN SHIFTING TO NORTH UNDER 10 KTS OVERNIGHT
AS BOUNDARY SAGS BACK SOUTHWARD.
FOR TUESDAY, ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY AT
RUT IN THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...TRENDING VFR AT ALL TERMINALS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE AREA.
18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...TRENDING MVFR/OCCNL IFR IN
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY RIDING ALONG
SEMI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...TRENDING VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE,
THOUGH BKN/OVC CIGS STILL LIKELY.
00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN STEADIER RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
339 PM EDT MON APR 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR NORTH COUNTRY
WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK, WITH A MIXTURE OF RAIN
AND WET SNOW. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL HIGHS WITH NEAR NORMAL LOWS.
THOUGH BRIEF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY, THE PATTERN
BEGINS TO TURN ACTIVE AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 143 PM EDT MONDAY...LIGHT SNOW FINALLY REACHING THE SURFACE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. WILL
GO WITH LIKELY POPS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE REST OF TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT MONDAY...IT`S AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR
THE NORTH COUNTRY, AS WARM FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT PLAYER IN NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK.
THOUGH THE FRONT WILL OSCILLATE NORTH/SOUTH, WEAK MID-LEVEL VORT
MAXIMA ACTING ON THE BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF CLOUDS AND
SEVERAL PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. IT`S ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE GOVERNED LARGELY BY TIME OF DAY AND
ELEVATION.
TONIGHT SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE WITH FRONT
STILL DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. TUESDAY WILL BE
THE BEST SHOT AT A DRY PERIOD DURING THE SHORT TERM. THEN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY CHANCE FOR PRECIP RETURNS WITH MORE SHORTWAVES
CROSSING OUR FORECAST AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 336 PM EDT MONDAY...12Z GLOBAL SUITE OF GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED PATTERN. FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, LARGE-
SCALE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS REBUILD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST, WHICH LEADS TO DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. IT APPEARS THAT A PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD
MILDER WEATHER IS IN THE OFFING. IT`S MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF
SPRING THAN WHAT WE`VE EXPERIENCED RECENTLY, AT LEAST.
THURSDAY: LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME WITH
WARMING 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES PRODUCES MAINLY LIGHT RAIN. THE ONE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN VT IN THE MORNING, AS COLD-AIR
DAMMING SIGNATURE EVIDENT IN SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE AND THICKNESS FILEDS
SUGGEST NEAR TO SUB-FREEZING LOW-LEVELS IN THESE AREAS. STRENGTH OF
WARM ADVECTION SHOULD READILY OVERCOME THIS LAYER, THOUGH, SO PERIOD
OF FROZEN PRECIP IS BRIEF. HIGHS LOWER 40S EASTERN VT TO AROUND 50
FOR ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.
THURSDAY NIGHT: BEST SURGE OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP COMES IN DURING
THE EARLY PART OF THURSDAY NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS ALSO ON THE
INCREASE, SO WHILE POPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY, I DO
SHOW A RELATIVE MIN IN POPS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, AS BREEZY SOUTH
WINDS TEND TO LIMIT QPF LOCALLY. ASIDE FROM EASTERN VT WHERE MID
30S ARE FORECAST, LOWS OTHERWISE ARE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S
GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS/PRECIP.
FRIDAY: 500 MB RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AHEAD OF A DIGGING
SHORTWAVE INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH MUCH OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY IN A WARM SECTOR BETWEEN APPROACHING OCCLUDED FRONT, WARM
THERMAL AND MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD BE UNDERWAY ON FRIDAY. IN
FACT, PWAT VALUES DO CLIMB OVER AN INCH PER THE 12Z GFS. SHOULD SEE
PERIODS OF LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE WARM SECTOR, WITH THE GREATEST POPS
TIED MOSTLY TO THE COLD FRONT. 925/850 MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND +10C,
THOUGH LIKELY PARTIAL TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ONLY YIELD HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S. RESULTING SNOW MELT SHOULD PRODUCE SOME RISE IN
RIVER LEVELS, THOUGH CURRENT STAGES STILL ARE PRETTY LOW.
FRIDAY NIGHT: OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOULD BE FOCUSED MORE ALONG THE FRONT.
SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH QPF FALLS WITH THE FRONT AND PENDING
HOW MUCH SNOW CAN MELT, COULD HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON OUR RIVERS
FOR RISES. THOUGH TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL BEHIND THE FRONT, RH
PROFILES SUGGEST AT LEAST PARTIAL CLOUDINESS, WHICH KEEPS LOWS
STILL IN THE 30S/AROUND 40.
SATURDAY: SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. I`VE SHOWN CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN
ZONES FOR SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50.
SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY: GENERALLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN,
BUT COLD ADVECTION REGIME BRINGS 850 MB TEMPS BACK DOWN TO -4 TO -
6C. CONTINUED DRY WEATHER INTO SUNDAY UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
USED SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THIS PERIOD, WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S SATURDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
PATTERN THEN GETS A BIT LESS CERTAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, BUT
INDICATIONS ARE FOR A RETURN TO MILDER WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LARGELY STUCK WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE TO CLOSE THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES BETWEEN VFR TO
IFR AS WARM FRONT LIFTS TO ABOUT THE CANADIAN BORDER, AND SAGS
BACK SOUTHWARD LATER THIS EVENING. PRETTY BUSY TAF PERIOD WITH LOW
VISIBILITIES AND MOUNTAINS OBSCURED BY LOW CEILINGS, BUT OVERALL
LIMITED IMPACT TO AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS.
COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS AN EAST-WEST BAND OF ECHOES PRODUCING IFR
VISIBILITY RAIN/SNOW MIX NOW LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE TAFS.
FURTHER SOUTH THOUGH, PRECIPITATION HAS ALREADY ENDED - AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY AT RUT. VISIBILITIES SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AS FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION AND IMPROVEMENT IN VISBYS UNTIL AROUND
00-02Z. APPROACHING MOISTURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY IS PROGGED BY
THE HRRR TO SHIFT INTO RUT, WHILE WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH BEGINS
ITS SAG SOUTHWARD. THAT SHOULD PRODUCE ANOTHER PERIOD OF MVFR TO
IFR VISIBILITIES IN RAIN/SNOW. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE BECOMING
SOUTH UNDER 10 KTS, THEN SHIFTING TO NORTH UNDER 10 KTS OVERNIGHT
AS BOUNDARY SAGS BACK SOUTHWARD.
FOR TUESDAY, ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY AT
RUT IN THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...TRENDING VFR AT ALL TERMINALS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE AREA.
18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...TRENDING MVFR/OCCNL IFR IN
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY RIDING ALONG
SEMI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...TRENDING VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE,
THOUGH BKN/OVC CIGS STILL LIKELY.
00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN STEADIER RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
143 PM EDT MON APR 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR NORTH COUNTRY
WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK, WITH A MIXTURE OF RAIN
AND WET SNOW. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL HIGHS WITH NEAR NORMAL LOWS.
THOUGH BRIEF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY, THE PATTERN
BEGINS TO TURN ACTIVE AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 143 PM EDT MONDAY...LIGHT SNOW FINALLY REACHING THE SURFACE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. WILL
GO WITH LIKELY POPS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE REST OF TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT MONDAY...IT`S AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR
THE NORTH COUNTRY, AS WARM FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT PLAYER IN NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK.
THOUGH THE FRONT WILL OSCILLATE NORTH/SOUTH, WEAK MID-LEVEL VORT
MAXIMA ACTING ON THE BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF CLOUDS AND
SEVERAL PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. IT`S ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE GOVERNED LARGELY BY TIME OF DAY AND
ELEVATION.
TONIGHT SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE WITH FRONT
STILL DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. TUESDAY WILL BE
THE BEST SHOT AT A DRY PERIOD DURING THE SHORT TERM. THEN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY CHANCE FOR PRECIP RETURNS WITH MORE SHORTWAVES
CROSSING OUR FORECAST AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 406 AM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL GOOD CONSISTENCY IS MAINTAINED
IN THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL MODELS DURING THE LATE WEEK TIME FRAME
AND A LARGELY PERSISTENCE FORECAST WILL BE MAINTAINED (ALBEIT WITH
A FEW CAVEATS) FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS
WE BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE SURFACE WAVE WILL BE EXITING QUICKLY
EAST PUSHING THE SFC FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WITH LINGERING LIGHT
RAINS/SNOWS ENDING FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE
NIGHT. SOME LIGHT ELEVATIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS THERMAL PROFILES COOL IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER BUT ANY QPF WOULD
BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
MODIFIED CP AIRMASS THEN SETTLES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE
MARITIMES AND WEDGES THE SURFACE FRONT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES IN THE FORM OF A STRONG BACKDOOR FRONT. TYPICAL
UNDER SUCH SCENARIOS WILL BE FOR OUR AREA TO BE ON THE SOMEWHAT
MILDER WESTERN EDGE OF THIS COOLER AIRMASS AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW BEGINS BY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT I`VE LEANED CLOSE TO BLENDED
GUIDANCE SHOWING HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER AND MID 40S EAST
AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WEST. PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD BE THE MAIN RULE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, BUT
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY LATER IN THE DAY HERALDING THE ARRIVAL OF THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IN THE PIPELINE.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
FAIRLY ROBUST GREAT LAKES CUTTER-LIKE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE
SAINT LAWRENCE/OTTAWA VALLEYS WITH WIDESPREAD, MAINLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED. INCREASINGLY STRONG WARM THERMAL ADVECTION
IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS, AND IMPRESSIVE PWAT SURGE TO IN EXCESS
OF 1.2 INCHES ALL SPELL A WARMING TREND AS OUR OLD REMNANT POLAR
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES BACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR AREA AS A
WARM FRONT. THIS SYSTEM WILL MARK THE ARRIVAL OF A LONG AWAITED
MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND WILL ACT TO
REORGANIZE THE MID LEVEL FLOW TO MORE WESTERLY, FINALLY ERADICATING
THE PERSISTENT AND ANOMALOUSLY COOL CP AIRMASS WHICH HAS PLAGUED
OUR REGION FOR MOST OF 2015. WITH THE INCREASINGLY STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW LEANED TOWARD THE MILDEST END OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THURSDAY
NIGHT KEEPING MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S AND OFFERING HIGHS
FRIDAY FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID 50S. BIG BUST POTENTIAL ON
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WITH LATE DAY 925 TEMPS RANGING FROM +11 TO
+15 ATOP A FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION (AT LEAST THAT`S WHAT
THE MODELS SUGGEST). IF WE CAN MIX DEEPER THAN 1 KFT, THEN HIGHS
SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S AND 60S COULD OCCUR WHICH DOES NOT SEEM
IMPLAUSIBLE AS WE`LL BE ENTERING THE SYSTEM DRY SLOT.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WE REMAIN IN BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AS DAMPENING PARENT H5 TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. CAN`T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS HERE AND THERE, ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY EVENING AS DEEPER WARM ADVECTION DEPARTS EAST, BUT THE
OVERALL IDEA WILL BE FOR COVERAGE OF PCPN TO BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS
IN THE 50S. SFC HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY
WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER, CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOCALLY NEAR 60.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES BETWEEN VFR TO
IFR AS WARM FRONT LIFTS TO ABOUT THE CANADIAN BORDER, AND SAGS
BACK SOUTHWARD LATER THIS EVENING. PRETTY BUSY TAF PERIOD WITH LOW
VISIBILITIES AND MOUNTAINS OBSCURED BY LOW CEILINGS, BUT OVERALL
LIMITED IMPACT TO AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS.
COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS AN EAST-WEST BAND OF ECHOES PRODUCING IFR
VISIBILITY RAIN/SNOW MIX NOW LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE TAFS.
FURTHER SOUTH THOUGH, PRECIPITATION HAS ALREADY ENDED - AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY AT RUT. VISIBILITIES SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AS FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION AND IMPROVEMENT IN VISBYS UNTIL AROUND
00-02Z. APPROACHING MOISTURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY IS PROGGED BY
THE HRRR TO SHIFT INTO RUT, WHILE WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH BEGINS
ITS SAG SOUTHWARD. THAT SHOULD PRODUCE ANOTHER PERIOD OF MVFR TO
IFR VISIBILITIES IN RAIN/SNOW. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE BECOMING
SOUTH UNDER 10 KTS, THEN SHIFTING TO NORTH UNDER 10 KTS OVERNIGHT
AS BOUNDARY SAGS BACK SOUTHWARD.
FOR TUESDAY, ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY AT
RUT IN THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...TRENDING VFR AT ALL TERMINALS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE AREA.
18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...TRENDING MVFR/OCCNL IFR IN
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY RIDING ALONG
SEMI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...TRENDING VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE,
THOUGH BKN/OVC CIGS STILL LIKELY.
00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN STEADIER RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/LOCONTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
137 PM EDT MON APR 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR NORTH COUNTRY
WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK, WITH A MIXTURE OF RAIN
AND WET SNOW. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL HIGHS WITH NEAR NORMAL LOWS.
THOUGH BRIEF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY, THE PATTERN
BEGINS TO TURN ACTIVE AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1046 AM EDT MONDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME
RETURNS ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOWING NO PRECIPITATION REACHING THE SURFACE AT THIS
TIME...WITH MAINLY A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN
CLOUD COVER...HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY 2-5 DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE ALSO LOWERED POPS AS WELL TO REFLECT THE
FACT THAT NO PRECIPITATION IS REACHING THE SURFACE AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 733 AM EDT MONDAY...SURFACE FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY BRINGING SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOTS OF CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN PLACE...THOUGH
TEMPS STILL REACH THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH NOT A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THOUGH
PRETTY WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES ESPECIALLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT MONDAY...IT`S AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR
THE NORTH COUNTRY, AS WARM FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT PLAYER IN NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK.
THOUGH THE FRONT WILL OSCILLATE NORTH/SOUTH, WEAK MID-LEVEL VORT
MAXIMA ACTING ON THE BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF CLOUDS AND
SEVERAL PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. IT`S ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE GOVERNED LARGELY BY TIME OF DAY AND
ELEVATION.
TONIGHT SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE WITH FRONT
STILL DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. TUESDAY WILL BE
THE BEST SHOT AT A DRY PERIOD DURING THE SHORT TERM. THEN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY CHANCE FOR PRECIP RETURNS WITH MORE SHORTWAVES
CROSSING OUR FORECAST AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 406 AM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL GOOD CONSISTENCY IS MAINTAINED
IN THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL MODELS DURING THE LATE WEEK TIME FRAME
AND A LARGELY PERSISTENCE FORECAST WILL BE MAINTAINED (ALBEIT WITH
A FEW CAVEATS) FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS
WE BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE SURFACE WAVE WILL BE EXITING QUICKLY
EAST PUSHING THE SFC FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WITH LINGERING LIGHT
RAINS/SNOWS ENDING FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE
NIGHT. SOME LIGHT ELEVATIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS THERMAL PROFILES COOL IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER BUT ANY QPF WOULD
BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
MODIFIED CP AIRMASS THEN SETTLES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE
MARITIMES AND WEDGES THE SURFACE FRONT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES IN THE FORM OF A STRONG BACKDOOR FRONT. TYPICAL
UNDER SUCH SCENARIOS WILL BE FOR OUR AREA TO BE ON THE SOMEWHAT
MILDER WESTERN EDGE OF THIS COOLER AIRMASS AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW BEGINS BY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT I`VE LEANED CLOSE TO BLENDED
GUIDANCE SHOWING HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER AND MID 40S EAST
AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WEST. PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD BE THE MAIN RULE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, BUT
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY LATER IN THE DAY HERALDING THE ARRIVAL OF THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IN THE PIPELINE.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
FAIRLY ROBUST GREAT LAKES CUTTER-LIKE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE
SAINT LAWRENCE/OTTAWA VALLEYS WITH WIDESPREAD, MAINLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED. INCREASINGLY STRONG WARM THERMAL ADVECTION
IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS, AND IMPRESSIVE PWAT SURGE TO IN EXCESS
OF 1.2 INCHES ALL SPELL A WARMING TREND AS OUR OLD REMNANT POLAR
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES BACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR AREA AS A
WARM FRONT. THIS SYSTEM WILL MARK THE ARRIVAL OF A LONG AWAITED
MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND WILL ACT TO
REORGANIZE THE MID LEVEL FLOW TO MORE WESTERLY, FINALLY ERADICATING
THE PERSISTENT AND ANOMALOUSLY COOL CP AIRMASS WHICH HAS PLAGUED
OUR REGION FOR MOST OF 2015. WITH THE INCREASINGLY STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW LEANED TOWARD THE MILDEST END OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THURSDAY
NIGHT KEEPING MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S AND OFFERING HIGHS
FRIDAY FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID 50S. BIG BUST POTENTIAL ON
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WITH LATE DAY 925 TEMPS RANGING FROM +11 TO
+15 ATOP A FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION (AT LEAST THAT`S WHAT
THE MODELS SUGGEST). IF WE CAN MIX DEEPER THAN 1 KFT, THEN HIGHS
SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S AND 60S COULD OCCUR WHICH DOES NOT SEEM
IMPLAUSIBLE AS WE`LL BE ENTERING THE SYSTEM DRY SLOT.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WE REMAIN IN BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AS DAMPENING PARENT H5 TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. CAN`T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS HERE AND THERE, ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY EVENING AS DEEPER WARM ADVECTION DEPARTS EAST, BUT THE
OVERALL IDEA WILL BE FOR COVERAGE OF PCPN TO BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS
IN THE 50S. SFC HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY
WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER, CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOCALLY NEAR 60.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES BETWEEN VFR TO
IFR AS WARM FRONT LIFTS TO ABOUT THE CANADIAN BORDER, AND SAGS
BACK SOUTHWARD LATER THIS EVENING. PRETTY BUSY TAF PERIOD WITH LOW
VISIBILITIES AND MOUNTAINS OBSCURED BY LOW CEILINGS, BUT OVERALL
LIMITED IMPACT TO AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS.
COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS AN EAST-WEST BAND OF ECHOES PRODUCING IFR
VISIBILITY RAIN/SNOW MIX NOW LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE TAFS.
FURTHER SOUTH THOUGH, PRECIPITATION HAS ALREADY ENDED - AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY AT RUT. VISIBILITIES SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AS FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION AND IMPROVEMENT IN VISBYS UNTIL AROUND
00-02Z. APPROACHING MOISTURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY IS PROGGED BY
THE HRRR TO SHIFT INTO RUT, WHILE WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH BEGINS
ITS SAG SOUTHWARD. THAT SHOULD PRODUCE ANOTHER PERIOD OF MVFR TO
IFR VISIBILITIES IN RAIN/SNOW. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE BECOMING
SOUTH UNDER 10 KTS, THEN SHIFTING TO NORTH UNDER 10 KTS OVERNIGHT
AS BOUNDARY SAGS BACK SOUTHWARD.
FOR TUESDAY, ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY AT
RUT IN THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...TRENDING VFR AT ALL TERMINALS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE AREA.
18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...TRENDING MVFR/OCCNL IFR IN
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY RIDING ALONG
SEMI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...TRENDING VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE,
THOUGH BKN/OVC CIGS STILL LIKELY.
00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN STEADIER RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...WGH/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/LOCONTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1251 PM CDT MON APR 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT MON APR 6 2015
GETTING A BIT OF CIRRUS SPREADING OVER THE TOP OF THE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SPREADING TO
EAST-NE THRU THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 2 WILL SEE MORE FILTERED SUN THRU THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS NOT
EXPECTED TO RISE MUCH MORE AS A RESULT. THE WARMEST TEMPS IN THE
LOW 40S ARE CURRENTLY BETWEEN KFAR AND KGFK. WENT AHEAD AND
REMOVED THE LOW PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON. THINKING THAT PCPN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
EVENING. EVEN THEN THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW A VERY
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION TONIGHT AS ANY PCPN BATTLES WITH THE
DRY AIR IN PLACE. BEST CHANCES TONIGHT MAY BE LATE NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING...BUT WILL LOOK MORE AT THIS FOR THE NEXT UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON APR 6 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO BE PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INITIALIZE WAY TO HIGH WITH PCPN AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE FA. RUC DOING MUCH BETTER SO WILL UTILIZE IN THE NEAR TERM.
OTHERWISE IN LATER PERIODS MODELS FAIRLY CLOSE.
DRY LOW LEVEL NE FLOW CONTINUES TO WIN OUT OVER ANY PCPN. FIRST
BAND OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH 700MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING TRACKING
ACROSS E CENTRAL MN WITHOUT BRINGING ANY MORE THAN A TRACE OF PCPN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA. NEXT BATCH OF RETURNS ACROSS CENTRAL/N
CENTRAL SD NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AND CIGS UNDER RETURNS IN THE MID
LEVELS. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA FEEL IT WILL BE EVEN TOUGHER TO GET ANY PCPN. RUC MAINLY
DRY TODAY AND GFS K295 SURFACE KEEPING ANY LIFT SOUTH OF THE FA.
FOR THIS CONFINED ANY LOW POPS TO ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER AREA.
LOOKS LIKE A BETTER CHANCE FOR PCPN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE E-SE ALLOWING MORE MOISTURE TO SPREAD INTO THE FA. GFS
295K SURFACE LIFTS A BAND OF LOWERING CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH
MODELS IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT INCREASED POPS SOME AS BAND LIFTS
NORTHWARD. NATIONAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SOME POTENTIAL FOR ZR
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FA SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS. THERMAL
ADVECTION FAIRLY NEUTRAL AND WITH CLOUDS TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE DURING THE DAY AND NEAR AVERAGE AT NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON APR 6 2015
ANY LINGERING PCPN SHOULD LIFT NE OF THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT.
NEXT PCPN CHANCES RETURN MIDWEEK AS WESTERN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES FROM
CURRENT TRENDS.
THURSDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF RAIN FROM A WELL ORGANIZED UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM CROSSING THE CENTRAL US. AS A RESULT THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I94 HWY
10 CORRIDOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S THURSDAY AND
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT MON APR 6 2015
THE DRY AIR CONTINUES TO CAUSE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION. MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME SNOW/RAIN
INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE. HAVE GONE
WITH THIS TREND WITH A BAND OF PRECIP OVERSPREADING MOST OF THE
REGION BY TUE MORNING. EASTERLY WINDS COULD ALSO GUST OVER 20KT ON
TUE WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
428 PM EDT MON APR 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEK. THIS WILL
LEAD TO OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE ILN FORECAST AREA...WITH
STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION AT AND ABOVE 925MB...AND WEAKER ADVECTION
NEAR THE SURFACE. THERE IS CURRENTLY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
ADDITIONAL FORCING...SO SHOWERS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY SCATTERED.
HOWEVER...AS WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY HAS BEGUN TO NOSE INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...COVERAGE AND INTENSITY HAS
SHOWN A SLIGHT INCREASE OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO. THIS INCREASE
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THOUGH
THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AND ANY CONVECTION
SHOULD BE WEAK.
OVERNIGHT...THERE MAY NOT BE A TRUE DIURNAL MINIMUM...AS
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE TOWARD TUESDAY
MORNING. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL SIGNIFICANTLY FROM VALUES
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE TEMPERATURE TRACE MAY EVEN BE SLIGHTLY
NON-DIURNAL (WITH NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS).
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON TUESDAY MORNING...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
WILL BE ATTACHED TO A NEARLY-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH
WILL EXTEND WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. WITH GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW AT 500MB...THIS
WILL SET UP A PATTERN OF CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION...A
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. ON THE NOSE OF A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET...CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE MARKEDLY ON TUESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. BECAUSE THIS MORNING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BASED
PRIMARILY ON ELEVATED INSTABILITY...STRONG STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY
UNLIKELY...THOUGH MODERATE SHEAR COULD LEAD TO A LITTLE BIT OF
ORGANIZATION OR SOME SMALL HAIL (EVEN IF NEAR-SURFACE ISOTHERMAL
OR STABLE CONDITIONS DO NOT SUPPORT MUCH WIND MIXING DOWN).
12Z FORECAST MODELS (AND THE 18Z NAM) ARE SUPPORTING A WETTER
SCENARIO FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL PROLONGED
CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. IF THERE IS ANY CONCERN HERE...IT WILL BE THAT INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY BECOME SURFACE BASED (AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER 70S AND DEWPOINTS REACH THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60). FROM HERE
ON OUT...THE MESOSCALE FEATURES (AND THE POSITION OF THE
OSCILLATING FRONT) WILL DOMINATE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...MAKING
DETAILED STORM TIMING AND PLACEMENT FORECASTS VERY DIFFICULT. IN
ADDITION...AFTER LOOKING AT VARIOUS BUFKIT SOUNDING SOLUTIONS
DURING AND AFTER THE FIRST ROUND OR TWO OF STORMS...IT IS CLEAR
THAT THERE ARE AN ARRAY OF POSSIBILITIES FOR HOW THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL TURN ITSELF OVER (AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP OR
REDEVELOP). THUS...WITH MODERATE SHEAR EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...THE POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG STORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON
CANNOT BE TOTALLY DISCOUNTED. A LULL IN ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY NIGHT
DOES APPEAR LIKELY...BEFORE A SIMILARLY UNCERTAIN PATTERN SETS UP
AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FAIRLY
WARM...WITH THE ILN CWA GENERALLY EXPECTED (BY MOST MODELS) TO
REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ON
WEDNESDAY...THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN
CWA...SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NORTH
OF DAYTON AND COLUMBUS. HOWEVER...THIS FORECAST HAS TRENDED TOWARD
THE WARMER SIDE OF THE SOLUTIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL NUDGE A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY. CONVECTION
SHOULD BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THEN A DECREASE IN COVERAGE
SHOULD OCCUR AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. IT SHOULD BE THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE WEEK AS REGION BECOMES MORE ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM
SECTOR. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S
SOUTH.
FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MODELS ARE NOW
SUGGESTING THAT MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
AREA SOMETIME DURING FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE AN
UNFAVORABLE TIME FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
LATER MODEL RUNS TO SEE IF TIMING CHANGES AT ALL. OTHERWISE...WILL
CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S NORTH THE LOWER 60S SOUTH ON SATURDAY.
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST
LATE MONDAY. WITH RETURN...MOIST FLOW...THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
ABOVE NORMAL READINGS ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL SITES CURRENTLY VFR WITH ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN. FIRST
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WAS SCHEDULED TO COME THROUGH THIS
EVENING HAS NOW SHIFTED FURTHER TO THE SOUTH TAKING THE BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN SOUTH WITH IT. HIGH RES NCEP WRF/ RAP STILL
SHOWING SOME DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING THOUGH SO
WILL LEAVE MENTION IN FOR TAF SITES IN THE EAST. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECASTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOMORROW
MORNING. HIGH RES MODELS HAVE SHOWED THIS RAIN SHIFTED FURTHER TO
THE SOUTH WHILE THE NAM BRINGS SOME PRECIP THROUGH OUR AREA. A
THIRD UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WHICH WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN. GLOBAL MODELS ARE AGAIN
SHOWING WIDESPREAD LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY MORNING. GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE PERFORMED POORLY WITH LOW LEVEL RH AS OF LATE SO HAVE
DELAYED ONSET OF CIGS AND KEPT EVERYONE MVFR.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...HAINES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
146 PM EDT MON APR 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH INTO THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL STALL NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THEN LIFT BACK NORTH ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT TO MANY CHANGES TO FORECAST THIS MORNING. LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING WITH MORE LIGHT RETURNS PUSHING IN
FROM THE WEST. A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WHICH WILL HELP EXPAND
THE COVERAGE. HIGH RES MODELS AND NAM SHOWING COVERAGE EXPANDING
MORE IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES. HAVE RAISED POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. COULD ALSO GET SOME THUNDER AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING K INDEX VALUES RISING TO NEAR 35. CAPE IS SKINNY
THOUGH AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT MIGHT LIMIT SOME OF THE THUNDER.
EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID 60S TODAY AS SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO OVERCAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EAST-WEST FRONT LOCATED NORTH OF THE REGION WILL START TO SAG INTO
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. PRETTY STRONG SIGNAL THAT SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND THEN MOVE EAST
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...EXITING TUESDAY
MORNING. IT IS NOT CLEAR WHETHER THIS WILL BE THE ONLY ACTIVITY ON
TUESDAY OR WHETHER ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP. SEEMED
PRUDENT TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON AS IT MAY NOT TAKE
MUCH TO GENERATE MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH A MOIST...SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE AND A FRONT IN THE
VICINITY.
00Z MODELS ARE INDICATING DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT
WILL TRACK THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES. USED A BROAD BRUSH
ENSEMBLE APPROACH WITH CHANCE POPS BOTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD EXPECT
IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO WHICH SHOULD END UP ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT WITH MUCH COOLER HIGHS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COMPARED
TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST GENERALLY STAYED WITHIN
A FEW DEGREES OF GFS MOS TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRONT WILL START TO LIFT BACK NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. APPEARS THAT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
WILL INCREASE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD. SCATTERED
ACTIVITY WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WARM SECTOR. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL SITES CURRENTLY VFR WITH ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN. FIRST
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WAS SCHEDULED TO COME THROUGH THIS
EVENING HAS NOW SHIFTED FURTHER TO THE SOUTH TAKING THE BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN SOUTH WITH IT. HIGH RES NCEP WRF/ RAP STILL
SHOWING SOME DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING THOUGH SO
WILL LEAVE MENTION IN FOR TAF SITES IN THE EAST. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECASTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOMORROW
MORNING. HIGH RES MODELS HAVE SHOWED THIS RAIN SHIFTED FURTHER TO
THE SOUTH WHILE THE NAM BRINGS SOME PRECIP THROUGH OUR AREA. A
THIRD UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WHICH WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN. GLOBAL MODELS ARE AGAIN
SHOWING WIDESPREAD LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY MORNING. GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE PERFORMED POORLY WITH LOW LEVEL RH AS OF LATE SO HAVE
DELAYED ONSET OF CIGS AND KEPT EVERYONE MVFR.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...HAINES
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HAINES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
336 PM CDT MON APR 6 2015
.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION...
THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE SHOWN A RELATIVELY CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF
ISOLATED STORM/S/ DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
MESOANALYSIS SHOW CONVECTIVE INHIBITION DECEASING ACROSS NORTHWEST
TEXAS. IT IS NOT A SURE THING THAT ANY STORM WILL DEVELOP AND
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED IF STORMS DO DEVELOP. BUT THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE SHOWS QUITE AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE... SO SEVERE WEATHER
WOULD BE LIKELY IF A STORM DOES INDEED DEVELOP. WILL KEEP POPS
BELOW 20 BUT ADD ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE WEATHER GRIDS IN TO COVER
THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT. MUCH THE SAME SCENARIO IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW WITH AN UNSTABLE BUT GENERALLY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WITHOUT
SIGNIFICANT FORCING... BUT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION DECREASES ENOUGH
THAT ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.
WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS TO HAVE A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL AS THE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST MOVES TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS. WE EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING NEAR THE DRYLINE AND SPREAD EAST
WITH A DECENT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER. THE STORM CHANCES WILL
LINGER INTO THURSDAY IN THE SOUTHEAST UNTIL THE SURFACE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.
AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE FRIDAY...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
THIS WEEKEND INCREASING STORM CHANCES AGAIN THIS WEEKEND. EVEN AS
THE FIRST TROUGH MOVES BY THE PLAINS... THE MEAN TROUGH WILL
PERSIST IN THE WEST ALLOWING CONTINUED STORM CHANCES THROUGH
MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY POST-DRYLINE WINDS HAVE SPREAD INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S AND HUMIDITY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.... SO THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING LOOKS
GOOD INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH WE WILL HAVE THE HEAT AND
LOW HUMIDITY AGAIN TOMORROW... WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER.
WINDS LOOK HIGHER AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY SO THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS
STILL VALID.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 63 84 66 82 / 10 20 20 30
HOBART OK 58 87 64 86 / 10 10 10 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 64 87 66 88 / 10 20 10 30
GAGE OK 51 88 53 85 / 10 0 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 61 87 64 85 / 10 20 20 40
DURANT OK 67 80 68 81 / 10 10 10 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-005-009-
010-014>016-021-033-034.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR OKZ004>006-009>011-014>016-021-022-033>037.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR TXZ083>085-087-088.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
1000 AM PDT MON APR 6 2015
.DISCUSSION...A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST TODAY,
BUT THE OVERALL IDEA PRESENTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION REMAINS
VALID. THE NAM...GFS AND HRRR MODELS SHOWS THE CORE OF THE HEAVIER
PRECIPIATION FOR CURRY...COOS AND JOSEPHINE COUNTY. AS THE LOW
DEVELOPS AND MOVES SOUTH THE CORE OF HEAVIER PRECIPIATION WILL BE
ALIGNED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ALONG THE COAST AND SPOTTY FURTHER
INLAND. WE`LL GET DOWNSLOPED IN THE ROGUE VALLEY TODAY, SO IT`S
POSSIBLE WE DON`T GET ANY RAIN DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR ASHLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
REGARDING TONIGHT...THE NAM AND GFS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN NORTHERN CAL
AND MOUNT SHASTA REGION, BUT ALL SIGNS ARE STILL POINTING TOWARDS
A HEAVY WET SNOW EVENT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE
LATER ARRIVAL COULD RESULT IN LESS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS, BUT IT WILL
STILL BE CONSIDERED A HIGH IMPACT EVENT. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.AVIATION...AT THE COAST...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCAL IFR
CIGS POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING AS A STRONG
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INLAND. INLAND WESTSIDE...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE ILLINOIS VALLEY AND JUST WEST OF ROSEBURG WITH MOUNTAINS
PARTLY OBSCURED IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. EAST OF THE CASCADES...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN/SNOW WILL
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE EAST SIDE AND NORCAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT MONDAY APR 2015...UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS MONDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS THIS MORNING WITH GALES LIKELY IN THE
OUTER WATERS AND PARTS OF THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THE
STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE LOW WILL PRODUCE CHAOTIC AND VERY STEEP SEAS
AS IT MOVES NORTH ALONG THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE WATERS. THE CENTER
OF THE LOW WILL BE AROUND 60 NM OFFSHORE FROM CAPE BLANCO BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. THE LOW WEAKENS TONIGHT THEN MOVES INLAND TUESDAY.
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. /FB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM PDT MON APR 6 2015/
DISCUSSION...
***A SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOWSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING***
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR 44N AND 130W WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE OREGON COAST TODAY.
A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE WILL DIG IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER
LOW AND THIS WILL SPAWN A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL MOVE
TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR COASTAL WATERS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING THIS MORNING, MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CASCADES WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST AND JUST
INLAND. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS...A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE AIM AT THE SOUTHWEST OREGON COAST AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA (MAINLY FROM ABOUT MOUNT SHASTA
WESTWARD) THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MUCH SPOTTIER EAST
OF THE CASCADES AS STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM BACKS TO THE SOUTH.
DESPITE THE LACK OF A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT...RDD-MFR IS ABOUT
4 MB...700MB WINDS OF 50-55KT WILL CAUSE STRONG, GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH THE SHASTA VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...AND A WIND ADVISORY IS UP AT NPWMFR. DON`T THINK WINDS
WILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS HERE IN THE ROGUE VALLEY...BUT THERE
MAY BE SOME GUSTS TO 35 OR 40 MPH ON THE SOUTH END NEAR TALENT
AND ASHLAND.
THE STRONG 700MB FLOW IN CONCERT WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
SUFFICIENT UPWARD MOTION WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION EVENT TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES
STILL EXIST IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE THIS MORNING, BUT ALL SIGNS
STILL POINT TO A HIGH IMPACT SNOW EVENT IN AND AROUND MOUNT SHASTA
CITY. MODEL 850 TEMPS ARE ABOUT -2 TO -3C AND 1000-700MB THICKNESS
VALUES BELOW 2840M SHOULD RESULT IN HEAVY, WET SNOW ALONG
INTERSTATE 5 SOUTH OF WEED. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL LIKELY LOWER DOWN
TO ~2000-2500 FEET (TO INCLUDE DUNSMUIR). WINTER STORM WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT AND EXPECTED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE VIEWED AT
WSWMFR.
WITH SUCH STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS, THERE WILL BE SOME DOWNSLOPING
IN THE VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING, SO
IT MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR PRECIPITATION TO REACH MEDFORD. THERE
SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THERE
WILL ALSO BE SOME SNOW ACROSS THE CASCADES TO THE EAST SIDE AND
THE REST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT
ACCUMULATIONS IN THOSE AREAS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT. A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED AT SPSMFR TO HIGHLIGHT AREAS
WHERE SNOW COVERED OR SLUSHY ROADS MAY BE A TRAVEL IMPACT.
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL END BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND THE UPPER
TROUGH/LOW WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL STILL
KEEP SHOWERS GOING ACROSS THE AREA. ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY TRIGGER
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL, MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES. A SHORT WAVE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT THESE SHOULD
BE LESS NUMEROUS THAN ON TUESDAY. A RIDGE WILL FINALLY BRING AN
END TO THE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. SPILDE
EXTENDED FORECAST FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON`S AFD...NO CHANGES...THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE WEST COAST WILL BECOME SPLIT ON FRIDAY
WITH A CLOSED LOW EXPECTED TO APPROACH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BUT
REMAIN OFFSHORE. IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MEANTIME, AN UPPER
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH WILL MOVE EAST TO THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST. TO A LARGE EXTENT, OUR AREA WILL BE BETWEEN THE
BRANCHES ON FRIDAY WITH CONDITIONS LIKELY TO RESEMBLE THOSE FROM
THURSDAY...SLIGHTLY WARMER BUT WITH CONTINUED SCATTERED TO BROKEN
HIGH CLOUDS. THE EXTENT TO WHICH CONDITIONS MAY BE DIFFERENT IS
THAT THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS FASTER THAN THE GFS WITH A VERY WEAK
WARM FRONT THAT MAY BRUSH NORTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTY LATE IN THE DAY.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW IS LIKELY
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
THE TIMING AND TRACK OF A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES IS UNCERTAIN.
THE ECMWF REMAINS FASTER AND IS A COLDER AND WETTER SOLUTION, BUT
NEITHER MODEL IS PARTICULARLY STRONG. THE ECMWF INDICATES WEST SIDE
FOCUSED PRECIPITATION OF 0.05 TO 0.25 INCHES WHILE THE GFS INDICATES
ONLY UP TO 0.05 INCHES. ON SUNDAY, DAY 7, THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AS IT INDICATES A STRONGER
RIDGE THAN THE GFS. /DW
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT
TUESDAY ABOVE 3000 FEET FOR FOR ORZ621.
CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT
TUESDAY FOR CAZ081-281.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR CAZ081-281.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT
TUESDAY ABOVE 3000 FEET FOR FOR CAZ080-280.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT
TUESDAY FOR CAZ082-282.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT
TUESDAY FOR CAZ083-284.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
PZZ356.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT
THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356-370-376.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR PZZ356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
PZZ350-370.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
PZZ376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS
MORNING FOR PZZ376.
$$
MAP/MAP/MAP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
604 PM CDT MON APR 6 2015
.AVIATION...
VFR IS CURRENTLY PREVAILING AT ALL SITES AT THE PRESENT HOUR.
HOWEVER...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
AFTER SUNSET WITH MVFR RETURNING BY 04-05Z. CEILINGS WILL LOWER
EVEN FURTHER TO IFR BY 9Z. LIFR IS ALSO POSSIBLE BUT WILL KEEP
THINGS IFR FOR NOW. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO MVFR AROUND
17Z...THEN VFR A COUPLE OF HOURS LATER. CONVECTION WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT KDRT DUE TO A STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION.
HAMPSHIRE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT MON APR 6 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
THE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL LIMIT THE
OVERALL INSTABILITY AND LIKELY ALLOW THE MID-LEVEL CAPPING
INVERSION TO KEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST AREAS
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE OUT WEST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A NARROW AXIS OF SURFACE-BASED CAPE ALONG WITH
A LOCALIZED MIN IN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO MOUNTAINS...THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS. IF CONVECTION DOES MANAGE TO DEVELOP...A STRONG
STORM OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS BEING THE
MAIN THREATS. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS INTACT.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. AN
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY COULD LEAD TO AN UPTICK IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS MOST AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND
UPCOMING WEEKEND...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AND BECOMES
INCREASINGLY ACTIVE. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST AREAS. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST THIS WEEKEND.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AND WILL AWAIT ADDITIONAL MODEL
RUNS BEFORE ADJUSTING THE CURRENT FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 69 84 69 84 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 68 83 68 83 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 67 85 67 85 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 67 84 66 83 66 / 10 10 10 10 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 69 87 69 88 68 / 20 10 10 10 30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 68 83 68 83 68 / 10 10 10 10 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 68 84 68 86 68 / 10 10 - 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 68 84 68 83 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 69 84 70 83 71 / 10 10 10 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 68 84 69 84 69 / 10 10 10 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 68 84 68 85 69 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
321 PM CDT MON APR 6 2015
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
THE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL LIMIT THE
OVERALL INSTABILITY AND LIKELY ALLOW THE MID-LEVEL CAPPING
INVERSION TO KEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST AREAS
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE OUT WEST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A NARROW AXIS OF SURFACE-BASED CAPE ALONG WITH
A LOCALIZED MIN IN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO MOUNTAINS...THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS. IF CONVECTION DOES MANAGE TO DEVELOP...A STRONG
STORM OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS BEING THE
MAIN THREATS. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS INTACT.
&&
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. AN
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY COULD LEAD TO AN UPTICK IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS MOST AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND
UPCOMING WEEKEND...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AND BECOMES
INCREASINGLY ACTIVE. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST AREAS. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST THIS WEEKEND.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AND WILL AWAIT ADDITIONAL MODEL
RUNS BEFORE ADJUSTING THE CURRENT FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 69 84 69 84 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 68 83 68 83 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 67 85 67 85 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 67 84 66 83 66 / 10 10 10 10 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 69 87 69 88 68 / 20 10 10 10 30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 68 83 68 83 68 / 10 10 10 10 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 68 84 68 86 68 / 10 10 - 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 68 84 68 83 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 69 84 70 83 71 / 10 10 10 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 68 84 69 84 69 / 10 10 10 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 68 84 68 85 69 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
337 PM CDT MON APR 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON APR 6 2015
CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED BROAD UPPER TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE
U.S....RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THEN ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. A STATIONARY SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE
EXISTS UNDERNEATH THE RIDGING AND ZONAL FLOW NEAR I-80...WITH A MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AXIS WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND
NORTHERN WI. SOME PRECIPITATION WAS FALLING OUT OF THIS AXIS...BUT
A NORTHEAST FLOW OF CANADIAN DRY AIR FROM HIGH PRESSURE IN ONTARIO
HAS DIMINISHED MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION. THE 12Z GRB SOUNDING AND
ESPECIALLY THE INL SOUNDING SHOWED THAT DRY AIR NICELY. SOME OF THAT
DRY AIR INFILTRATED INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING TO CLEAR
SKIES OUT FROM THE STRATUS. HOWEVER...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WERE
SPREADING BACK OVER THE AREA FROM A BROAD WARM ADVECTION REGIME
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE...AND THEN SOME LOW STRATUS WAS TRYING TO BACK
INTO THE AREA FROM NORTHEAST WI. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN
GOING ON NEAR WATERLOO IA MARCHING EAST-NORTHEAST...ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK SHORTWAVE INTERACTING WITH THE WARM/MOIST ADVECTION. QUITE
THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXITS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. PER RAP 925MB TEMPS... READINGS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29 ARE AROUND
0C COMPARED TO 8C OVER NORTHERN IA AND SOUTHERN WI. FARTHER
SOUTHWEST 20C PLUS 925MB READINGS EXISTS IN WESTERN KS.
THE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS IS PROGGED TO PROGRESS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH ALONG
THE WEST COAST MOVING INLAND SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL PUT THE FORECAST
AREA IN A WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION ZONE ALOFT. ISENTROPIC LIFT FIELDS
SHOW THIS NICELY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND EVEN MORESO
IN THE AFTERNOON WEST OF THE MS RIVER ON 290-300K SURFACES.
THUS...WE SHOULD SEE A CONTINUOUS INCREASE AND THICKENING OF CLOUD
COVER. AN EAST TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW BRINGING IN DRIER AIR
FROM ONTARIO WILL HAMPER SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION...OR
MAKE IT SPOTTY...UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN PRECIPITABLE WATER
SURGES UP TO 0.75 TO 1 INCH. THEREFORE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE PLACED IN THE LATE TUE AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD.
THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WOULD HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP.
HOWEVER...THE EASTERLY FLOW OF COOLER DRY AIR IN CONJUNCTION WITH
SPOTTY PRECIPITATION WILL WORK TOGETHER TO KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN.
AS SUCH...925MB TEMPS FALL TO -2C NORTH TO +4C SOUTH BY 12Z TUE AND
LINGER NEAR THERE THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY. READINGS MAY STRUGGLE TO
CLIMB MUCH ON TUESDAY WITH LIMITED SUNSHINE...AND THE MORE
WIDESPREAD LATE AFTERNOON RAIN NOT HELPING MATTERS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED TEMPERATURES BRING ABOUT PRECIPITATION TYPE
CONCERNS ACROSS TAYLOR/CLARK COUNTY WHERE THE COLDEST AIR EXISTS.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FALL BACK BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. FOR
THE EVENING ICE IS SUGGESTED IN THE CLOUDS...SO THERE COULD BE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX. THEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF TUESDAY
MORNING...THE ICE IN THE CLOUDS DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST...LEAVING
THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN WITH ANY PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...ITS POSSIBLE THAT THE LOSS OF ICE MAY END UP ENDING THE
PRECIPITATION ENTIRELY AS SUGGESTED BY THE 06.12Z GFS.
THEREFORE...HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY WINTER WEATHER OR FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON APR 6 2015
THERE ARE TWO MAIN PERIODS OF WEATHER FOCUS...TUESDAY NIGHT AND
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN
TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT A DECENT SURGE OF 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT / ISENTROPIC LIFT. MOISTURE SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 0.75-1 INCH AND SATURATED SOUNDINGS. THEREFORE
CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR RAIN AND RAISED CHANCES UP TO 80. BEST
JUXTAPOSITION OF LIFT IS SITUATED SOUTH OF I-90 DURING THE EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY...WITH MUCAPE VALUES IN 200-500 J/KG RANGE DURING THE
EVENING ROOTED ABOVE 850MB AND LITTLE CAP...EXPECTING AT LEAST
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR. PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH WEST
TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LIFT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND
SUBSIDENCE COMES IN. PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THE MOST PART LOOKS TO
BE RAIN WITH PLENTY OF WARM AIR IN PLACE...EXCEPT FOR TAYLOR COUNTY
SHOULD THE PRECIPITATION GET UP THERE. IN TAYLOR COUNTY...THE AIR
MAY BE COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN.
A BRIEF BREAK LOOKS TO OCCUR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY...UNTIL
THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS IS WHEN THE TROUGHING ALONG THE U.S.
WEST COAST BEGINS THE MARCH TOWARDS THE PLAINS...PUSHING ANOTHER
SURGE OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER ALSO CLIMBS BACK TO 0.75-1 INCH
AFTER FALLING TO NEAR 0.5 INCH DURING THE MORNING. THE SURGE OF
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS MORE IMPRESSIVE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT COMPARED
TO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND IT APPEARS EVERYWHERE SHOULD PICK OF
PRECIPITATION. ANTICIPATING RAIN TO BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE
WITH ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION STAYING JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SHOULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN SOUTH OF I-90 AS MUCAPE
ABOVE ANY ELEVATED CAPPING INCREASES TO 200-500 J/KG.
AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO SPREAD OUT ON THE SPEED
AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH...IMPACTING THE TRACK OF THE
SURFACE SYSTEM AND WARM SECTOR. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN HOLDING FAIRLY
STEADY WITH A MORE POSITIVE TILT TROUGH AND FARTHER SOUTHEAST
SURFACE LOW. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 06.12Z GFS/CANADIAN/NAM ARE
MORE NEUTRAL AND EVEN NEGATIVE TILT IN THE NAM...RESULTING IN A
STRONGER SURFACE LOW. HARD TO SAY WHAT SCENARIO WILL PAN OUT...BUT
WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF...FEEL THE ECMWF
MAY BE MORE LIKELY TO WORK OUT. IN ANY EVENT...PRECIPITATION LOOKS
LIKE A GOOD BET TO CONTINUE ON THURSDAY...BUT OF A LIGHTER VARIETY
AS THE FORCING DIMINISHES TO JUST THE DPVA FROM THE UPPER TROUGH.
TYPE LOOKS TO HOLD AS RAIN. AGAIN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH
OF I-90...AND IF THE FARTHER NORTHWEST 06.12Z CANADIAN/GFS PAN OUT
COULD EVEN SEE A SEVERE RISK IN FAR NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI.
SOMETHING TO MONITOR. TEMPERATURES EXTREMELY TRICKY FOR THURSDAY AS
THEY DEPEND ON THE LOW TRACK. FOLLOWED A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW.
THURSDAY NIGHT IS DOMINATED BY A COLD CONVEYOR BELT IMPACTING THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE A DRY SLOT ACCOMPANYING
THE UPPER TROUGH TRIES TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST HALF. UNDER THE
COLD CONVEYOR BELT COULD SEE PRECIPITATION MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON AS TEMPERATURES COOL.
HOWEVER...BY THE TIME PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO SWITCH OVER...IT COULD
ALSO BE ENDING. THUS...NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.
STILL KEPT SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN FOR FRIDAY BASED ON A MODEL
CONSENSUS BUT NEW 06.12Z ECMWF/GFS WOULD SUGGEST A DRIER FORECAST
AND OUR FORECAST MAY BE ABLE TO BE DRIED OUT. ALTHOUGH COOL AIR
COMES IN BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH FOR FRIDAY...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
MORE SUN COMPARED TO THURSDAY AND THUS HIGHS FOR MANY LOCATIONS END
UP SIMILAR.
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS
AMONGST THE 06.12Z GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN FOR UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS. FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH SURFACE HIGH
IN PLACE AND CLEARING. MAY EVEN END UP WITH SOME RADIATION FOG.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY ON SATURDAY WITH SUN. THEN ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY ANOTHER TROUGH THAT FORMS OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
LIFTS INTO/AFFECTS THE REGION. AS A RESULT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RETURN. TYPE FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD BE RAIN. WARM ADVECTION HELPS
TO PUSH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT MON APR 6 2015
CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC ACROSS THE REGION SHOWING A BAND OF
CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL IA MOVING EAST AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHING INTO WESTERN IA. PLAN ON THIS CONVECTION TO STAY
WELL SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. MEANWHILE...DRY EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW
IS WORKING TO HOLD OFF STRATUS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
KRST/KLSE TAF SITE. EXPECT INCREASE IN ALTOCUMULUS GOING INTO
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE TROUGH PUSHING INTO IOWA. WITH BETTER
FORCING FOR SHOWERS REMAINING SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES...WILL GO
WITH VCSH AT KRST/KLSE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...EXPECTING MVFR/STRATUS CLOUD TO FILL IN AGAIN AFTER
01Z...LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. PLAN ON SURFACE WINDS TO
REMAIN EASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...DAS